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Sample records for risk theory modelarea

  1. Risk theory

    CERN Document Server

    Schmidli, Hanspeter

    2017-01-01

    This book provides an overview of classical actuarial techniques, including material that is not readily accessible elsewhere such as the Ammeter risk model and the Markov-modulated risk model. Other topics covered include utility theory, credibility theory, claims reserving and ruin theory. The author treats both theoretical and practical aspects and also discusses links to Solvency II. Written by one of the leading experts in the field, these lecture notes serve as a valuable introduction to some of the most frequently used methods in non-life insurance. They will be of particular interest to graduate students, researchers and practitioners in insurance, finance and risk management.

  2. Essentials of Risk Theory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roeser, S.; Hillerbrand, R.; Sandin, P.; Peterson, M.B.

    2012-01-01

    Risk has become one of the main topics in fields as diverse as engineering, medicine and economics, and it is also studied by social scientists, psychologists and legal scholars. This Springer Essentials version offers an overview of the in-depth handbook and highlights some of the main points

  3. Modern actuarial risk theory: using R

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kaas, R.; Goovaerts, M.; Dhaene, J.; Denuit, M.

    2008-01-01

    Modern Actuarial Risk Theory -- Using R contains what every actuary needs to know about non-life insurance mathematics. It starts with the standard material like utility theory, individual and collective model and basic ruin theory. Other topics are risk measures and premium principles, bonus-malus

  4. Risk assessment theory, methods, and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Rausand, Marvin

    2011-01-01

    With its balanced coverage of theory and applications along with standards and regulations, Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications serves as a comprehensive introduction to the topic. The book serves as a practical guide to current risk analysis and risk assessment, emphasizing the possibility of sudden, major accidents across various areas of practice from machinery and manufacturing processes to nuclear power plants and transportation systems. The author applies a uniform framework to the discussion of each method, setting forth clear objectives and descriptions, while also shedding light on applications, essential resources, and advantages and disadvantages. Following an introduction that provides an overview of risk assessment, the book is organized into two sections that outline key theory, methods, and applications. * Introduction to Risk Assessment defines key concepts and details the steps of a thorough risk assessment along with the necessary quantitative risk measures. Chapters outline...

  5. Competing risk theory and radiation risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Groer, P.G.

    1980-01-01

    New statistical procedures are applied to estimate cumulative distribution functions (c.d.f.), force of mortality, and latent period for radiation-induced malignancies. It is demonstrated that correction for competing risks influences the shape of dose response curves, estimates of the latent period, and of the risk from ionizing radiations. The equivalence of the following concepts is demonstrated: force of mortality, hazard rate, and age or time specific incidence. This equivalence makes it possible to use procedures from reliability analysis and demography for radiation risk assessment. Two methods used by reliability analysts - hazard plotting and total time on test plots - are discussed in some detail and applied to characterize the hazard rate in radiation carcinogenesis. C.d.f.'s with increasing, decreasing, or constant hazard rate have different shapes and are shown to yield different dose-response curves for continuous irradiation. Absolute risk is shown to be a sound estimator only if the force of mortality is constant for the exposed and the control group. Dose-response relationships that use the absolute risk as a measure for the effect turn out to be special cases of dose-response relationships that measure the effect with cumulative incidence. (H.K.)

  6. Possibility Theory and the Risk

    CERN Document Server

    Georgescu, Irina

    2012-01-01

    The book deals with some of the fundamental issues of risk assessment in grid computing environments. The book describes the development of a hybrid probabilistic and possibilistic model for assessing the success of a computing task in a grid environment

  7. Recent Developments in Sociological Risk Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jens O. Zinn

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available This article gives a brief overview of the main streams and recent developments of sociological research and theorising on risk. It outlines shifts in cultural theory on risk, from risk society to reflexive modernisation, from governmentality on risk to governmentality on uncertainty and adds the often neglected systems theory approach. Some important insights result from these developments: Risk and uncertainty should be interpreted as systematically linked to each other because there are different ways beyond instrumental rationality how risk can be managed. Furthermore, risk understood as rational calculation is an uncertain business, too. Risks are at the same time both real and socially constructed. Risks and uncertainties have to be managed case by case. When ignorance or uncertainty is too big there are no general rationalities available to make reasonable decisions. Finally, it is argued for more theoretical integration of the outlined approaches. The article finishes with some considerations regarding the contribution of sociology to risk research. URN: urn:nbn:de:0114-fqs0601301

  8. Informal Risk Perceptions and Formal Theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cayford, Jerry

    2001-01-01

    Economists have argued persuasively that our goals are wider than just risk minimization, and that they include a prudent weighing of costs and benefits. This economic line of thought recognizes that our policy goals are complex. As we widen the range of goals we are willing to entertain, though, we need to check that the methods we customarily employ are appropriate for the tasks to which we customarily apply them. This paper examines some economic methods of risk assessment, in light of the question of what our policy goals are and should be. Once the question of goals is open, more complexities than just cost intrude: what the public wants and why begs to be addressed. This leads us to the controversial issue of public risk perceptions. We have now examined a number of procedures that experts use to make public policy decisions. Behind all these issues is always the question of social welfare: what actions can we take, what policies should we embrace, to make the world a better place? In many cases, the public and the experts disagree about what the right choice is. In the first section, we saw a possible defense of the experts based on democratic theory: the people's participation, and even their will, can be legitimately set aside in the pursuit of their true interests. If this defense is to work, a great deal of weight rests on the question of the people's interests and the competence and integrity of the experts' pursuit of it. But at the same time, social preferences are ill-defined, and so are not good candidates for rational actor theory. Both the prescriptive legitimacy claim and the very workings of formal theory we have seen to depend on informal, qualitative, political judgments. Unfortunately, we have also seen a steady pattern of expert reliance on technical procedures even when they were manifestly unsuited to the task. The experts seem so intent on excluding informal thought that they would prefer even a bad quantitative process to a qualitative

  9. Informal Risk Perceptions and Formal Theory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cayford, Jerry [Resources for the Future, Washington, DC (United States)

    2001-07-01

    Economists have argued persuasively that our goals are wider than just risk minimization, and that they include a prudent weighing of costs and benefits. This economic line of thought recognizes that our policy goals are complex. As we widen the range of goals we are willing to entertain, though, we need to check that the methods we customarily employ are appropriate for the tasks to which we customarily apply them. This paper examines some economic methods of risk assessment, in light of the question of what our policy goals are and should be. Once the question of goals is open, more complexities than just cost intrude: what the public wants and why begs to be addressed. This leads us to the controversial issue of public risk perceptions. We have now examined a number of procedures that experts use to make public policy decisions. Behind all these issues is always the question of social welfare: what actions can we take, what policies should we embrace, to make the world a better place? In many cases, the public and the experts disagree about what the right choice is. In the first section, we saw a possible defense of the experts based on democratic theory: the people's participation, and even their will, can be legitimately set aside in the pursuit of their true interests. If this defense is to work, a great deal of weight rests on the question of the people's interests and the competence and integrity of the experts' pursuit of it. But at the same time, social preferences are ill-defined, and so are not good candidates for rational actor theory. Both the prescriptive legitimacy claim and the very workings of formal theory we have seen to depend on informal, qualitative, political judgments. Unfortunately, we have also seen a steady pattern of expert reliance on technical procedures even when they were manifestly unsuited to the task. The experts seem so intent on excluding informal thought that they would prefer even a bad quantitative process to

  10. Children neglected: Where cumulative risk theory fails.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Hara, Mandy; Legano, Lori; Homel, Peter; Walker-Descartes, Ingrid; Rojas, Mary; Laraque, Danielle

    2015-07-01

    Neglected children, by far the majority of children maltreated, experience an environment most deficient in cognitive stimulation and language exchange. When physical abuse co-occurs with neglect, there is more stimulation through negative parent-child interaction, which may lead to better cognitive outcomes, contrary to Cumulative Risk Theory. The purpose of the current study was to assess whether children only neglected perform worse on cognitive tasks than children neglected and physically abused. Utilizing LONGSCAN archived data, 271 children only neglected and 101 children neglected and physically abused in the first four years of life were compared. The two groups were assessed at age 6 on the WPPSI-R vocabulary and block design subtests, correlates of cognitive intelligence. Regression analyses were performed, controlling for additional predictors of poor cognitive outcome, including socioeconomic variables and caregiver depression. Children only neglected scored significantly worse than children neglected and abused on the WPPSI-R vocabulary subtest (p=0.03). The groups did not differ on the block design subtest (p=0.4). This study shows that for neglected children, additional abuse may not additively accumulate risk when considering intelligence outcomes. Children experiencing only neglect may need to be referred for services that address cognitive development, with emphasis on the linguistic environment, in order to best support the developmental challenges of neglected children. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Comments on the theory of radiation risk I Systematic outline of the theory of radiation risk

    CERN Document Server

    Neufeld, J

    1974-01-01

    Presents a systematic outline of the current theory of radiation risk. The most basic ideas of the theory can be expressed by two quantities which represent the administrative approach to radiation risk. These quantities are 'specific dose', D/sub s/, which relates to individual organs or tissues and 'overall dose', D/sub 0/, which relates to the entire human body. By taking D/sub s/ and D/sub 0/ as a starting point and by using postulational methods, two auxiliary quantities have been derived which are 'dose equivalent', D/sub e/(r), and quality factor, Q. Dose equivalent, D/sub e/(r), is a macroscopic field quantity and is, therefore, different from the ICRP defined dose equivalent, H, which is microscopic.

  12. Risk communication: Framing versus interdependence theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lawless, W.F.; Burns, Chad W.

    1992-01-01

    Prospect theory has gained wide acceptance since its introduction by Kahneman and Tversky, especially where it has been applied extensively by DOE and others. But as conceived, it is a static process theory that may not apply to dynamic environments or dynamic processes; indeed, the recent extension to group situations by one of its authors modified the original conclusions. Although most social science research is static in nature, if prospect theory is to apply to human behavior, as the authors do with their sweeping generalizations about human irrationality, because behavior is dynamic and not static, then the challenge is to study prospect theory in a dynamic environment. This study will briefly review prospect and interdependence theories, representative evidence that distinguishes between the two theories, and the implications for DOE nuclear waste management. (author)

  13. The total theory about risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Furuya, Shunsuke

    2003-01-01

    A general working procedure of risk management, some example of other countries, topics and problems in the future are described. A definition of risk, risk assessment, risk management process, setting of aim and definite policy are explained. As a fundamental way of thinking, risk is controlled by ALARP (As Low As Reasonably Practicable). The upper and lower limit of risk level is called as Quantitative Safety Goal and Target Level of Safety, respectively. These limits in the atomic power and airplane are decided. Evaluation of risk, countermeasure and practice are explained. For example, a permissible range of risk and practical use in England, U.S.A, Holland and Japan are stated. Recently, accountability risk, missing demand risk and control risk are important. (S.Y.)

  14. Risk Aversion and Expected-Utility Theory: A Calibration Theorem.

    OpenAIRE

    Matthew Rabin.

    2000-01-01

    Within the expected-utility framework, the only explanation for risk aversion is that the utility function for wealth is concave: A person has lower marginal utility for additional wealth when she is wealthy than when she is poor. This paper provides a theorem showing that expected-utility theory is an utterly implausible explanation for appreciable risk aversion over modest stakes: Within expected-utility theory, for any concave utility function, even very little risk aversion over modest st...

  15. Combat Risk and Pay: Theory and Some Evidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-10-01

    1776) theory of compensating differences, and Rosen (1986) devised what has become the standard neoclassical economic theory relating wages to the...I N S T I T U T E F O R D E F E N S E A N A L Y S E S IDA Paper P-4774 October 2011 Combat Risk and Pay: Theory and Some Evidence Curtis J. Simon...OCT 2011 2. REPORT TYPE N/A 3. DATES COVERED - 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Combat Risk and Pay: Theory and Some Evidence 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b

  16. Stochastic models in risk theory and management accounting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brekelmans, R.C.M.

    2000-01-01

    This thesis deals with stochastic models in two fields: risk theory and management accounting. Firstly, two extensions of the classical risk process are analyzed. A method is developed that computes bounds of the probability of ruin for the classical risk rocess extended with a constant interest

  17. An application of extreme value theory in estimating liquidity risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sonia Benito Muela

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The last global financial crisis (2007–2008 has highlighted the weaknesses of value at risk (VaR as a measure of market risk, as this metric by itself does not take liquidity risk into account. To address this problem, the academic literature has proposed incorporating liquidity risk into estimations of market risk by adding the VaR of the spread to the risk price. The parametric model is the standard approach used to estimate liquidity risk. As this approach does not generate reliable VaR estimates, we propose estimating liquidity risk using more sophisticated models based on extreme value theory (EVT. We find that the approach based on conditional extreme value theory outperforms the standard approach in terms of accurate VaR estimates and the market risk capital requirements of the Basel Capital Accord.

  18. Risk Assessment in Finland: Theory and Practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hannu Anttonen

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available The Finnish risk assessment practice is based on the Occupational Safety and Health Act aiming to improve working conditions in order maintain the employees' work ability, and to prevent occupational accidents and diseases. In practice there are hundreds of risk assessment methods in use. A simple method is used in SME's and more complex risk evaluation methods in larger work places. Does the risk management function in the work places in Finland? According to our experience something more is needed. That is, understanding of common and company related benefits of risk management. The wider conclusion is that commitment for risk assessment in Finland is high enough. However, in those enterprises where OSH management was at an acceptable level or above it, there were also more varied and more successfully accomplished actions to remove or reduce the risks than in enterprises, where OSH management was in lower level. In risk assessment it is important to process active technical prevention and exact communication, increase work place attraction and increase job satisfaction and motivation. Investments in occupational safety and health are also good business. Low absenteeism due to illness or accidents increases directly the production results by improved quality and quantity of the product. In general Finnish studies have consistently shown that the return of an invested euro is three to seven-old. In national level, according to our calculations the savings could be even 20% of our gross national product.

  19. Investment risk management by applying contemporary modern portfolio theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jakšić Milena

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Investment risk is the principal threat to the assets side of the balance sheets of financial institutions. It is evident that investors who concentrate their wealth on one type of securities can rarely be found. Instead, they tend to invest diversified portfolio of securities. This reduces the degree of risk of the expected return, which depends both on the absolute risk of each investment in the portfolio, and the relationship that exists between individual investments within the portfolio. The paper analyzes the investment risk management by using modern portfolio theory in both national and global financial f lows. At the same time, the paper considers the risk management models that ensures efficient portfolio diversification, aiming at investment risk reduction. It is pointed out that the investment risk management in modern financial f lows is a complex process, and that the development of financial theory goes towards improving, soft risk management method.

  20. Mitigating tin whisker risks theory and practice

    CERN Document Server

    Handwerker, Carol A; Bath, Jasbir

    2016-01-01

    Discusses the growth mechanisms of tin whiskers and the effective mitigation strategies necessary to reduce whisker growth risks. This book covers key tin whisker topics, ranging from fundamental science to practical mitigation strategies. The text begins with a review of the characteristic properties of local microstructures around whisker and hillock grains to identify why these particular grains and locations become predisposed to forming whiskers and hillocks. The book discusses the basic properties of tin-based alloy finishes and the effects of various alloying elements on whisker formation, with a focus on potential mechanisms for whisker suppression or enhancement for each element. Tin whisker risk mitigation strategies for each tier of the supply chain for high reliability electronic systems are also described.

  1. Toward a Responsibility-Catering Prioritarian Ethical Theory of Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wikman-Svahn, Per; Lindblom, Lars

    2018-03-05

    Standard tools used in societal risk management such as probabilistic risk analysis or cost-benefit analysis typically define risks in terms of only probabilities and consequences and assume a utilitarian approach to ethics that aims to maximize expected utility. The philosopher Carl F. Cranor has argued against this view by devising a list of plausible aspects of the acceptability of risks that points towards a non-consequentialist ethical theory of societal risk management. This paper revisits Cranor's list to argue that the alternative ethical theory responsibility-catering prioritarianism can accommodate the aspects identified by Cranor and that the elements in the list can be used to inform the details of how to view risks within this theory. An approach towards operationalizing the theory is proposed based on a prioritarian social welfare function that operates on responsibility-adjusted utilities. A responsibility-catering prioritarian ethical approach towards managing risks is a promising alternative to standard tools such as cost-benefit analysis.

  2. Should the model for risk-informed regulation be game theory rather than decision theory?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bier, Vicki M; Lin, Shi-Woei

    2013-02-01

    Risk analysts frequently view the regulation of risks as being largely a matter of decision theory. According to this view, risk analysis methods provide information on the likelihood and severity of various possible outcomes; this information should then be assessed using a decision-theoretic approach (such as cost/benefit analysis) to determine whether the risks are acceptable, and whether additional regulation is warranted. However, this view ignores the fact that in many industries (particularly industries that are technologically sophisticated and employ specialized risk and safety experts), risk analyses may be done by regulated firms, not by the regulator. Moreover, those firms may have more knowledge about the levels of safety at their own facilities than the regulator does. This creates a situation in which the regulated firm has both the opportunity-and often also the motive-to provide inaccurate (in particular, favorably biased) risk information to the regulator, and hence the regulator has reason to doubt the accuracy of the risk information provided by regulated parties. Researchers have argued that decision theory is capable of dealing with many such strategic interactions as well as game theory can. This is especially true in two-player, two-stage games in which the follower has a unique best strategy in response to the leader's strategy, as appears to be the case in the situation analyzed in this article. However, even in such cases, we agree with Cox that game-theoretic methods and concepts can still be useful. In particular, the tools of mechanism design, and especially the revelation principle, can simplify the analysis of such games because the revelation principle provides rigorous assurance that it is sufficient to analyze only games in which licensees truthfully report their risk levels, making the problem more manageable. Without that, it would generally be necessary to consider much more complicated forms of strategic behavior (including

  3. A new approach in nuclear risk theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Serbanescu, D.

    1994-01-01

    The basic problem of the probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) is the errors evaluation. The main contributor to the final PSA results is the systematical error induced by the method itself. There may be some alternatives to the PSA classical approaches. All the new more successful approaches in the PSA results validation are related to the modelling problem. A comparison between two possible approaches for a pressurized heavy water reactor (PHWR) leakage event tree is included: The new approach proposed in (Serbanescu, 1991); the approach used in (Serbanescu, 1992), based on some unexplored yet features of the existing PSA analyses. The results are presented in relative units and an algorithm which was already implemented on an IBM.PC computer (Serbanescu, 1991) is used as a tool to decisions making tool. The decision making process should be based on a nuclear power plant (NPP) between modelling from the risk analysis point of view. This is the main feature of the proposed approach. (author). 4 refs, 2 figs, 2 tabs

  4. Exaggerated risk: prospect theory and probability weighting in risky choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kusev, Petko; van Schaik, Paul; Ayton, Peter; Dent, John; Chater, Nick

    2009-11-01

    In 5 experiments, we studied precautionary decisions in which participants decided whether or not to buy insurance with specified cost against an undesirable event with specified probability and cost. We compared the risks taken for precautionary decisions with those taken for equivalent monetary gambles. Fitting these data to Tversky and Kahneman's (1992) prospect theory, we found that the weighting function required to model precautionary decisions differed from that required for monetary gambles. This result indicates a failure of the descriptive invariance axiom of expected utility theory. For precautionary decisions, people overweighted small, medium-sized, and moderately large probabilities-they exaggerated risks. This effect is not anticipated by prospect theory or experience-based decision research (Hertwig, Barron, Weber, & Erev, 2004). We found evidence that exaggerated risk is caused by the accessibility of events in memory: The weighting function varies as a function of the accessibility of events. This suggests that people's experiences of events leak into decisions even when risk information is explicitly provided. Our findings highlight a need to investigate how variation in decision content produces variation in preferences for risk.

  5. Testing the cultural theory of risk in France

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brenot, J.; Bonnefous, S.; Marris, C.

    1998-01-01

    Cultural Theory, as developed by Mary Douglas, argues that differing risk perceptions can be explained by reference to four distinct cultural biases: hierarchy, egalitarianism, individualism, and fatalism. This paper presents empirical results from a quantitative survey based on a questionnaire devised by Karl Dake to measure these cultural biases. A large representative sample was used to test this instrument in the French social context. Correlations between cultural biases and perceptions of 20 social and environmental risks were examined. These correlations were very weak, but were statistically significant: cultural biases explained 6%, at most, of the variance in risk perceptions. Standard socio-demographic variables were also weakly related to risk perceptions (especially gender, social class, and education), and cultural biases and socio-demographic variables were themselves intercorrelated (especially with age, social class, and political outlook). The authors compare these results with surveys conducted in other countries using the same instrument and conclude that new methods, more qualitative and contextual, still need to be developed to investigate the cultural dimensions of risk perceptions. The paper also discusses relationships between perceptions of personal and residual risk, and between perceived risk and demand for additional safety measures. These three dimensions were generally closely related, but interesting differences were observed for some risk issues. Included in the list of risk perceptions were pollution, hazardous materials, and radioactive wastes

  6. Forewarning model for water pollution risk based on Bayes theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Jun; Jin, Juliang; Guo, Qizhong; Chen, Yaqian; Lu, Mengxiong; Tinoco, Luis

    2014-02-01

    In order to reduce the losses by water pollution, forewarning model for water pollution risk based on Bayes theory was studied. This model is built upon risk indexes in complex systems, proceeding from the whole structure and its components. In this study, the principal components analysis is used to screen out index systems. Hydrological model is employed to simulate index value according to the prediction principle. Bayes theory is adopted to obtain posterior distribution by prior distribution with sample information which can make samples' features preferably reflect and represent the totals to some extent. Forewarning level is judged on the maximum probability rule, and then local conditions for proposing management strategies that will have the effect of transforming heavy warnings to a lesser degree. This study takes Taihu Basin as an example. After forewarning model application and vertification for water pollution risk from 2000 to 2009 between the actual and simulated data, forewarning level in 2010 is given as a severe warning, which is well coincide with logistic curve. It is shown that the model is rigorous in theory with flexible method, reasonable in result with simple structure, and it has strong logic superiority and regional adaptability, providing a new way for warning water pollution risk.

  7. Decisionmaking under risk in invasive species management: risk management theory and applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shefali V. Mehta; Robert G. Haight; Frances R. Homans

    2010-01-01

    Invasive species management is closely entwined with the assessment and management of risk that arises from the inherently random nature of the invasion process. The theory and application of risk management for invasive species with an economic perspective is reviewed in this synthesis. Invasive species management can be delineated into three general categories:...

  8. Tourism at Risk: Failures and Dichotomies of Risk Perception Theory in Tourism (Opinion Piece

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maximiliano E. KORSTANJE

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The turn of the century has brought a lot of radical shifts and risks for tourism industry, which ranged from terrorism to lethal virus outbreaks. Henceforth risk perception theory, which was formulated in psychology, was re-appropriated by policy makers and tourism-related scholars. However, from its inception this conceptual corpus was based on the economic-centred paradigm. This piece discusses critically the main limitations of risk perception theory and the rise of a new discipline, post disaster marketing, in view of the caveats and speculative assumption of “the precautionary principle”.

  9. Supply Chain Disruptions Theory and Practice of Managing Risk

    CERN Document Server

    Mehrotra, Anuj; Ray, Saibal

    2012-01-01

    One of the most critical issues facing supply chain managers in today’s globalized and highly uncertain business environments is how to deal proactively with disruptions that might affect the complicated supply networks characterizing modern enterprises. Supply Chain Disruptions: Theory and Practice of Managing Risk presents a state-of the-art perspective on this particular issue. Supply Chain Disruptions: Theory and Practice of Managing Risk demonstrates that effective management of supply disruptions necessitates both strategic and tactical measures – the former involving optimal design of supply networks; the latter involving inventory, finance and demand management. It shows that managers ought to use all available levers at their disposal throughout the supply network – like sourcing and pricing strategies, providing financial subsidies, encouraging information sharing and incentive alignment between supply chain partners – in order to tackle supply disruptions. The editors combine up-to-date aca...

  10. Game Theory and Risk-Based Levee System Design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hui, R.; Lund, J. R.; Madani, K.

    2014-12-01

    Risk-based analysis has been developed for optimal levee design for economic efficiency. Along many rivers, two levees on opposite riverbanks act as a simple levee system. Being rational and self-interested, land owners on each river bank would tend to independently optimize their levees with risk-based analysis, resulting in a Pareto-inefficient levee system design from the social planner's perspective. Game theory is applied in this study to analyze decision making process in a simple levee system in which the land owners on each river bank develop their design strategies using risk-based economic optimization. For each land owner, the annual expected total cost includes expected annual damage cost and annualized construction cost. The non-cooperative Nash equilibrium is identified and compared to the social planner's optimal distribution of flood risk and damage cost throughout the system which results in the minimum total flood cost for the system. The social planner's optimal solution is not feasible without appropriate level of compensation for the transferred flood risk to guarantee and improve conditions for all parties. Therefore, cooperative game theory is then employed to develop an economically optimal design that can be implemented in practice. By examining the game in the reversible and irreversible decision making modes, the cost of decision making myopia is calculated to underline the significance of considering the externalities and evolution path of dynamic water resource problems for optimal decision making.

  11. Gambler Risk Perception: A Mental Model and Grounded Theory Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spurrier, Michael; Blaszczynski, Alexander; Rhodes, Paul

    2015-09-01

    Few studies have investigated how gamblers perceive risk or the role of risk perception in disordered gambling. The purpose of the current study therefore was to obtain data on lay gamblers' beliefs on these variables and their effects on decision-making, behaviour, and disordered gambling aetiology. Fifteen regular lay gamblers (non-problem/low risk, moderate risk and problem gamblers) completed a semi-structured interview following mental models and grounded theory methodologies. Gambler interview data was compared to an expert 'map' of risk-perception, to identify comparative gaps or differences associated with harmful or safe gambling. Systematic overlapping processes of data gathering and analysis were used to iteratively extend, saturate, test for exception, and verify concepts and themes emerging from the data. The preliminary findings suggested that gambler accounts supported the presence of expert conceptual constructs, and to some degree the role of risk perception in protecting against or increasing vulnerability to harm and disordered gambling. Gambler accounts of causality, meaning, motivation, and strategy were highly idiosyncratic, and often contained content inconsistent with measures of disordered gambling. Disordered gambling appears heavily influenced by relative underestimation of risk and overvaluation of gambling, based on explicit and implicit analysis, and deliberate, innate, contextual, and learned processing evaluations and biases.

  12. Adolescent insomnia, suicide risk, and the interpersonal theory of suicide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zullo, Lucas; Horton, Sarah; Eaddy, Michael; King, Jessica; Hughes, Jennifer; Diederich, Andrew; Kennard, Betsy; Emslie, Graham; Stewart, Sunita

    2017-11-01

    Although insomnia has been repeatedly linked with suicide ideation, the reason for the linkage is not clear. The Interpersonal Psychological Theory of Suicide (IPTS) proposes that three core variables (thwarted belongingness, perceived burdensomeness, and acquired capability) are the final common pathway for all risk factors for suicide ideation and behavior. Recent research has suggested that insomnia may be associated with suicide ideation independently of the IPTS. We examined cross-sectional data from 151 psychiatric inpatients (ages 12-17) to determine if the association between insomnia symptoms and a continuous measure of suicide risk (measured as increasingly severe ideation and plan) was explained by the framework of the IPTS. When all IPTS variables and depressive symptoms were included in the model, insomnia symptoms did not contribute unique variance to suicide risk. Perceived burdensomeness and depressive symptoms were found to explain the relationship between insomnia symptoms and suicide risk. Our findings suggest that improved sleep might reduce suicide risk, that management of interpersonal need cognitions might reduce risk in the presence of insomnia symptoms, and reinforce the independent role of depressive symptoms in suicide risk in clinical samples of adolescents. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Rethinking Risk: Prospect Theory Application in Health Message Framing Research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrington, Nancy Grant; Kerr, Anna M

    2017-02-01

    Although prospect theory conceptualizes risk as uncertainty, health message framing research based on the theory typically conceptualizes risk as severity. This study reports the results of two experiments designed to explore these alternative conceptualizations of risk and their effect on health decision making. Participants (N 1  = 768, N 2  = 532) were randomly assigned to one of four conditions that presented a hypothetical scenario of a sexually transmitted disease (STD) outbreak. The conditions were defined by message prompt (deadly vs. easily curable STD) and response option frame (gain vs. loss). Participants selected which of two programs (certain outcome vs. uncertain outcome) they would prefer to combat the outbreak. Across both experiments, participants expressed strong preferences for certain (low risk) outcomes in the gain-framed conditions and no preferences in the loss-framed conditions. These differences held regardless of the consequence severity of the scenario. We discuss the theoretical and practical implications of these results and offer directions for future research.

  14. A Mental Value Perspective in Risk Decision Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandru Trifu

    2006-09-01

    Full Text Available This work is based on Prospect theory, which was developed by D. Kahneman and A. Tversky in 1979. This is one the most quoted and best-documented point of view in economic psychology. First of all, it replaces, once again, the notion of utility with value. But value is defined in terms of gains and losses and this, according with an irrational human tendency to be less willing to gamble with profits than with losses. So, we discover the great importance of these assumptions in the field of risk decision-making, especially for firms’ activity in the marketplace.

  15. A Mental Value Perspective in Risk Decision Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roxana Davidescu

    2006-07-01

    Full Text Available This work is based on Prospect theory, which was developed by D. Kahneman and A. Tversky in 1979. This is one the most quoted and best-documented point of view in economic psychology. First of all, it replaces, once again, the notion of utility with value. But value is defined in terms of gains and losses and this, according with an irrational human tendency to be less willing to gamble with profits than with losses. So, we discover the great importance of these assumptions in the field of risk decision-making, especially for firms’ activity in the marketplace.

  16. On the consistency of risk acceptance criteria with normative theories for decision-making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abrahamsen, E.B. [University of Stavanger, 4036 Stavanger (Norway)], E-mail: eirik.abrahamsen@uis.no; Aven, T. [University of Stavanger, 4036 Stavanger (Norway)

    2008-12-15

    In evaluation of safety in projects it is common to use risk acceptance criteria to support decision-making. In this paper, we discuss to what extent the risk acceptance criteria is in accordance with the normative theoretical framework of the expected utility theory and the rank-dependent utility theory. We show that the use of risk acceptance criteria may violate the independence axiom of the expected utility theory and the comonotonic independence axiom of the rank-dependent utility theory. Hence the use of risk acceptance criteria is not in general consistent with these theories. The level of inconsistency is highest for the expected utility theory.

  17. On the consistency of risk acceptance criteria with normative theories for decision-making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abrahamsen, E.B.; Aven, T.

    2008-01-01

    In evaluation of safety in projects it is common to use risk acceptance criteria to support decision-making. In this paper, we discuss to what extent the risk acceptance criteria is in accordance with the normative theoretical framework of the expected utility theory and the rank-dependent utility theory. We show that the use of risk acceptance criteria may violate the independence axiom of the expected utility theory and the comonotonic independence axiom of the rank-dependent utility theory. Hence the use of risk acceptance criteria is not in general consistent with these theories. The level of inconsistency is highest for the expected utility theory

  18. Theory of Financial Risk and Derivative Pricing - 2nd Edition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe; Potters, Marc

    2003-12-01

    Foreword; Preface; 1. Probability theory: basic notions; 2. Maximum and addition of random variables; 3. Continuous time limit, Ito calculus and path integrals; 4. Analysis of empirical data; 5. Financial products and financial markets; 6. Statistics of real prices: basic results; 7. Non-linear correlations and volatility fluctuations; 8. Skewness and price-volatility correlations; 9. Cross-correlations; 10. Risk measures; 11. Extreme correlations and variety; 12. Optimal portfolios; 13. Futures and options: fundamental concepts; 14. Options: hedging and residual risk; 15. Options: the role of drift and correlations; 16. Options: the Black and Scholes model; 17. Options: some more specific problems; 18. Options: minimum variance Monte-Carlo; 19. The yield curve; 20. Simple mechanisms for anomalous price statistics; Index of most important symbols; Index.

  19. Market Mechanism Design for Renewable Energy based on Risk Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Wu; Bo, Wang; Jichun, Liu; Wenjiao, Zai; Pingliang, Zeng; Haobo, Shi

    2018-02-01

    Generation trading between renewable energy and thermal power is an efficient market means for transforming supply structure of electric power into sustainable development pattern. But the trading is hampered by the output fluctuations of renewable energy and the cost differences between renewable energy and thermal power at present. In this paper, the external environmental cost (EEC) is defined and the EEC is introduced into the generation cost. At same time, the incentive functions of renewable energy and low-emission thermal power are designed, which are decreasing functions of EEC. On these bases, for the market risks caused by the random variability of EEC, the decision-making model of generation trading between renewable energy and thermal power is constructed according to the risk theory. The feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed model are verified by simulation results.

  20. Social Science Theories on Adolescent Risk-Taking: The Relevance of Behavioral Inhibition and Activation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vermeersch, Hans; T'Sjoen, Guy; Kaufman, Jean-Marc; Van Houtte, Mieke

    2013-01-01

    The major social science theories on adolescent risk-taking--strain, social control, and differential association theories--have received substantial empirical support. The relationships between variables central to these theories and individual differences in temperament related to risk-taking, however, have not been adequately studied. In a…

  1. Physiological Plausibility and Boundary Conditions of Theories of Risk Sensitivity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marchiori, Davide; Elqayam, Shira

    2012-01-01

    dilatation, which in turn positively correlates with a risk aversion behavior. They hypothesize that participants’ attention is increased in decision problems involving losses, which trigger an innate prudent behavior in situations entailing danger and/or hazard. Interestingly, Y&T find that the nature...... of attention is not selective, i.e., when losses are present, participants are shown to devote more attention to the task as a whole rather than to the single negative outcomes, in contrast to Prospect Theory's loss aversion....... and physiological underpinnings of one of the central topics in judgment and decision-making (JDM) research – choice behavior in decisions from experience. Y&T successfully contributes to this goal by demonstrating a novel effect that losses increase experimental participants’ arousal as measured by pupil...

  2. Small- and large-stakes risk aversion: implications of concavity calabration for decision theory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cox, J.C.; Sadiraj, V.

    2006-01-01

    A growing literature reports the conclusions that: (a) expected utility theory does not provide a plausible theory of risk aversion for both small-stakes and large-stakes gambles; and (b) this decision theory should be replaced with an alternative theory characterized by loss aversion. This paper

  3. Financial risk and derivatives a special issue of the geneva papers on risk and insurance theory

    CERN Document Server

    Subrahmanyam, Marti

    1996-01-01

    Financial Risk and Derivatives provides an excellent illustration of the links that have developed in recent years between the theory of finance on one hand and insurance economics and actuarial science on the other. Advances in contingent claims analysis and developments in the academic and practical literature dealing with the management of financial risks reflect the close relationships between insurance and innovations in finance. The book represents an overview of the present state of the art in theoretical research dealing with financial issues of significance for insurance science. It will hopefully provide an impetus to further developments in applied insurance research.

  4. Decision theory, the context for risk and reliability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaplan, S.

    1985-01-01

    According to this model of the decision process then, the optimum decision is that option having the largest expected utility. This is the fundamental model of a decision situation. It is necessary to remark that in order for the model to represent a real-life decision situation, it must include all the options present in that situation, including, for example, the option of not deciding--which is itself a decision, although usually not the optimum one. Similarly, it should include the option of delaying the decision while the authors gather further information. Both of these options have probabilities, outcomes, impacts, and utilities like any option and should be included explicitly in the decision diagram. The reason for doing a quantitative risk or reliability analysis is always that, somewhere underlying there is a decision to be made. The decision analysis therefore always forms the context for the risk or reliability analysis, and this context shapes the form and language of that analysis. Therefore, they give in this section a brief review of the well-known decision theory diagram

  5. A review of game theory approach to cyber security risk management

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A review of game theory approach to cyber security risk management. ... This paper presents a review of game theoretic-based model for cyber security risk management. Specifically, issues on ... AJOL African Journals Online. HOW TO USE ...

  6. a review of game theory approach to cyber security risk management

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    HOD

    Keywords: Cyber Security, Risk Management, Game Theory, Model. 1. INTRODUCTION. Risk is ... behaviors. This implies they are triggered by self- motivated goal .... embrace diligence verification of the recipient of the email as well as lack of ...

  7. Predicting Facebook users' online privacy protection: risk, trust, norm focus theory, and the theory of planned behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saeri, Alexander K; Ogilvie, Claudette; La Macchia, Stephen T; Smith, Joanne R; Louis, Winnifred R

    2014-01-01

    The present research adopts an extended theory of the planned behavior model that included descriptive norms, risk, and trust to investigate online privacy protection in Facebook users. Facebook users (N = 119) completed a questionnaire assessing their attitude, subjective injunctive norm, subjective descriptive norm, perceived behavioral control, implicit perceived risk, trust of other Facebook users, and intentions toward protecting their privacy online. Behavior was measured indirectly 2 weeks after the study. The data show partial support for the theory of planned behavior and strong support for the independence of subjective injunctive and descriptive norms. Risk also uniquely predicted intentions over and above the theory of planned behavior, but there were no unique effects of trust on intentions, nor of risk or trust on behavior. Implications are discussed.

  8. NATO Advanced Study Institute on Insurance and Risk Theory

    CERN Document Server

    Vylder, F; Haezendonck, J

    1986-01-01

    Canadian financial institutions have been in rapid change in the past five years. In response to these changes, the Department of Finance issued a discussion paper: The Regulation of Canadian Financial Institutions, in April 1985, and the government intends to introduce legislation in the fall. This paper studi.es the combinantion of financial institutions from the viewpoint of ruin probability. In risk theory developed to describe insurance companies [1,2,3,4,5J, the ruin probability of a company with initial reserve (capital) u is 6 1 -:;-7;;f3 u 1jJ(u) = H6 e H6 (1) Here,we assume that claims arrive as a Poisson process, and the claim amount is distributed as exponential distribution with expectation liS. 6 is the loading, i.e., premium charged is (1+6) times expected claims. Financial institutions are treated as "insurance companies": the difference between interest charged and interest paid is regarded as premiums, loan defaults are treated as claims.

  9. Does prospect theory warrant a paradigm shift in the economics of risk?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    PL Mohapi

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper assesses whether a paradigm shift should be made from expected utility framework to prospect theory framework – in the economics of choice under risk. A brief overview of the subject is outlined, starting with expected utility theory and noting its descriptive limitations. Proposed theories to make up for these limitations is also provided. Prospect theory emerged as the most serious challenger to expected utility theory. A review of some descriptive predictions of prospect theory, suggests that there is no scientific reason why expected utility should not be ousted from dominance by prospect theory. The shift to prospect theory however is not without costs. Conceptual complexities and non-universality of application associated with prospect theory should be embraced with the shift while not entirely abandoning expected utility theory.

  10. Economics versus psychology.Risk, uncertainty and the expected utility theory

    OpenAIRE

    Schilirò, Daniele

    2017-01-01

    The present contribution examines the emergence of expected utility theory by John von Neumann and Oskar Morgenstern, the subjective the expected utility theory by Savage, and the problem of choice under risk and uncertainty, focusing in particular on the seminal work “The Utility Analysis of Choices involving Risk" (1948) by Milton Friedman and Leonard Savage to show how the evolution of the theory of choice has determined a separation of economics from psychology.

  11. An Axiomatization of Cumulative Prospect Theory for Decision under Risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wakker, P.P.; Chateauneuf, A.

    1999-01-01

    Cumulative prospect theory was introduced by Tversky and Kahneman so as to combine the empirical realism of their original prospect theory with the theoretical advantages of Quiggin's rank-dependent utility. Preference axiomatizations were provided in several papers. All those axiomatizations,

  12. Theories of risk and safety: what is their relevance to nursing?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooke, Hannah

    2009-03-01

    The aim of this paper is to review key theories of risk and safety and their implications for nursing. The concept of of patient safety has only recently risen to prominence as an organising principle in healthcare. The paper considers the wider social context in which contemporary concepts of risk and safety have developed. In particular it looks at sociological debates about the rise of risk culture and the risk society and their influence on the patient safety movement. The paper discusses three bodies of theory which have attempted to explain the management of risk and safety in organisations: normal accident theory, high reliability theory, and grid-group cultural theory. It examine debates between these theories and their implications for healthcare. It discusses reasons for the dominance of high reliability theory in healthcare and its strengths and limitations. The paper suggest that high reliability theory has particular difficulties in explaining some aspects of organisational culture. It also suggest that the implementation of high reliability theory in healthcare has involved over reliance on numerical indicators. It suggests that patient safety could be improved by openness to a wider range of theoretical perspectives.

  13. Towards Validating Risk Indicators Based on Measurement Theory (Extended version)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Morali, A.; Wieringa, Roelf J.

    Due to the lack of quantitative information and for cost-efficiency, most risk assessment methods use partially ordered values (e.g. high, medium, low) as risk indicators. In practice it is common to validate risk indicators by asking stakeholders whether they make sense. This way of validation is

  14. Cultural theory and risk perception: validity and utility explored in the French context

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brenot, J.; Bonnefous, S.; Mays, C.

    1996-01-01

    Explaining perceived risk can draw upon factors related to the person (e.g. demographics, personality, social/professional status, political orientation), or to the risk source (e.g. health impacts, economic effects). According to Cultural Theory risk perceptions are culturally biased. Wildavsky and Dake operationalised the Cultural Theory with questionnaire scales and found that resulting 'cultural profiles' best predict individual differences in risk perception. A French version of their questionnaire was inserted into a representative national risk opinion survey of May 1993; 1022 adults (age 18 and over) were interviewed. Major results are presented. The four cultural scales (hierarchy, egalitarianism, fatalism and individualism) show high correlations with political orientation as expected, but also with, for example, age, gender, income and education level. However, scale relationships to perception of risk situations (twenty, mainly technological) are not as strong as expected. Sjoeberg found similar results in Sweden. The utility of the existing operationalisation of Cultural Theory for risk perception analysis is discussed. (author)

  15. Cultural theory and risk perception: validity and utility explored in the French context

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brenot, J.; Bonnefous, S.; Mays, C. [CEA Centre d`Etudes de Fontenay-aux-Roses, 92 (France). Inst. de Protection et de Surete Nucleaire

    1996-12-31

    Explaining perceived risk can draw upon factors related to the person (e.g. demographics, personality, social/professional status, political orientation), or to the risk source (e.g. health impacts, economic effects). According to Cultural Theory risk perceptions are culturally biased. Wildavsky and Dake operationalised the Cultural Theory with questionnaire scales and found that resulting `cultural profiles` best predict individual differences in risk perception. A French version of their questionnaire was inserted into a representative national risk opinion survey of May 1993; 1022 adults (age 18 and over) were interviewed. Major results are presented. The four cultural scales (hierarchy, egalitarianism, fatalism and individualism) show high correlations with political orientation as expected, but also with, for example, age, gender, income and education level. However, scale relationships to perception of risk situations (twenty, mainly technological) are not as strong as expected. Sjoeberg found similar results in Sweden. The utility of the existing operationalisation of Cultural Theory for risk perception analysis is discussed. (author).

  16. Executive Risk Propensity and Accounting Conservatism Through the Lens of Life History Theory

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holm, Morten; Schneider, Melanie L.

    First, we intend to investigate the impact of CFO risk propensity on accounting conservatism. Second, we will examine the role of CEOs in this context. By drawing on life history theory, we propose variables reflecting executive risk propensity. Based on this, we hypothesize that CFO risk...

  17. Applying Ecodevelopmental Theory and the Theory of Reasoned Action to Understand HIV Risk Behaviors Among Hispanic Adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ortega, Johis; Huang, Shi; Prado, Guillermo

    2012-01-03

    HIV/AIDS is listed as one of the top 10 reasons for the death of Hispanics between the ages of 15 and 54 in the United States. This cross sectional, descriptive secondary study proposed that using both the systemic (ecodevelopmental) and the individually focused (theory of reasoned action) theories together would lead to an increased understanding of the risk and protective factors that influence HIV risk behaviors in this population. The sample consisted of 493 Hispanic adolescent 7th and 8th graders and their immigrant parents living in Miami, Florida. Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) was used for the data analysis. Family functioning emerged as the heart of the model, embedded within a web of direct and mediated relationships. The data support the idea that family can play a central role in the prevention of Hispanic adolescents' risk behaviors.

  18. Incorporating Contagion in Portfolio Credit Risk Models Using Network Theory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Anagnostou, I.; Sourabh, S.; Kandhai, D.

    2018-01-01

    Portfolio credit risk models estimate the range of potential losses due to defaults or deteriorations in credit quality. Most of these models perceive default correlation as fully captured by the dependence on a set of common underlying risk factors. In light of empirical evidence, the ability of

  19. Theory and Application of an Economic Performance Measure of Risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C. Niu (Cuizhen); X. Guo (Xu); M.J. McAleer (Michael); W.-K. Wong (Wing-Keung)

    2017-01-01

    textabstractHomm and Pigorsch (2012a) use the Aumann and Serrano index to develop a new economic performance measure (EPM), which is well known to have advantages over other measures. In this paper, we extend the theory by constructing a one-sample confidence interval of EPM, and construct

  20. Improving measurement of injection drug risk behavior using item response theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janulis, Patrick

    2014-03-01

    Recent research highlights the multiple steps to preparing and injecting drugs and the resultant viral threats faced by drug users. This research suggests that more sensitive measurement of injection drug HIV risk behavior is required. In addition, growing evidence suggests there are gender differences in injection risk behavior. However, the potential for differential item functioning between genders has not been explored. To explore item response theory as an improved measurement modeling technique that provides empirically justified scaling of injection risk behavior and to examine for potential gender-based differential item functioning. Data is used from three studies in the National Institute on Drug Abuse's Criminal Justice Drug Abuse Treatment Studies. A two-parameter item response theory model was used to scale injection risk behavior and logistic regression was used to examine for differential item functioning. Item fit statistics suggest that item response theory can be used to scale injection risk behavior and these models can provide more sensitive estimates of risk behavior. Additionally, gender-based differential item functioning is present in the current data. Improved measurement of injection risk behavior using item response theory should be encouraged as these models provide increased congruence between construct measurement and the complexity of injection-related HIV risk. Suggestions are made to further improve injection risk behavior measurement. Furthermore, results suggest direct comparisons of composite scores between males and females may be misleading and future work should account for differential item functioning before comparing levels of injection risk behavior.

  1. DO SELF-THEORIES EXPLAIN OVERCONFIDENCE AND FINANCIAL RISK TAKING? A field experiment.

    OpenAIRE

    Bertrand Koebel; André Schmitt; Sandrine Spaeter

    2015-01-01

    How people develop beliefs about themselves (self-theories) plays an important role on motivation and achievement as shown by Carol Dweck’s life-long research. In this paper, we conduct a field experiment to investigate whether self-theories impact overconfidence and risk taking. Self-theories deal with how an individual perceives some of her attributes such as intelligence, personality or moral character. In this paper, we are interested by how people perceive their mindset (fixed or growth)...

  2. Risk Taking under the Influence: A Fuzzy-Trace Theory of Emotion in Adolescence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rivers, Susan E.; Reyna, Valerie F.; Mills, Britain

    2008-01-01

    Fuzzy-trace theory explains risky decision making in children, adolescents, and adults, incorporating social and cultural factors as well as differences in impulsivity. Here, we provide an overview of the theory, including support for counterintuitive predictions (e.g., when adolescents "rationally" weigh costs and benefits, risk taking increases,…

  3. At-risk students and the role of implicit theories of intelligence in educational professionals’ actions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tiekstra, Marlous; Minnaert, Alexander

    2017-01-01

    Implicit theories of intelligence play a role in teacher's actions. Adaptive instruction in and out of the classroom is important to optimize learning processes, especially in the case of at-risk students. This study explored to what extent implicit theories of intelligence play a role in the

  4. The opportunity-threat theory of decision-making under risk

    OpenAIRE

    Mohan Pandey

    2018-01-01

    A new theory of decision-making under risk, the Opportunity-Threat Theory is proposed. Analysis of risk into opportunity and threat components allows description of behavior as a combination of opportunity seeking and threat aversion. Expected utility is a special case of this model. The final evaluation is an integration of the impacts of opportunity and threat with this expectation. The model can account for basic results as well as several ``new paradoxes'' that refuted c...

  5. The background and theory of integrated risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunsucker, John L.

    1995-01-01

    While all good managers have always considered risk in their decision making, only recently have formal programs to do so been introduced. This report covers the logical structure behind the formulation of an integrated risk management plan (IRM). Included in the report are factors forcing the development of a formal plan to consider risk, the basic objective or purpose of an IRM, and desirable traits of such a plan. The report moves on to a discussion of background issues, seeks to formalize some definitions, and then discusses required information on threats. The report concludes with the steps for an IRM.

  6. A "Toy" Model for Operational Risk Quantification using Credibility Theory

    OpenAIRE

    Hans B\\"uhlmann; Pavel V. Shevchenko; Mario V. W\\"uthrich

    2009-01-01

    To meet the Basel II regulatory requirements for the Advanced Measurement Approaches in operational risk, the bank's internal model should make use of the internal data, relevant external data, scenario analysis and factors reflecting the business environment and internal control systems. One of the unresolved challenges in operational risk is combining of these data sources appropriately. In this paper we focus on quantification of the low frequency high impact losses exceeding some high thr...

  7. Network theory-based analysis of risk interactions in large engineering projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fang, Chao; Marle, Franck; Zio, Enrico; Bocquet, Jean-Claude

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents an approach based on network theory to deal with risk interactions in large engineering projects. Indeed, such projects are exposed to numerous and interdependent risks of various nature, which makes their management more difficult. In this paper, a topological analysis based on network theory is presented, which aims at identifying key elements in the structure of interrelated risks potentially affecting a large engineering project. This analysis serves as a powerful complement to classical project risk analysis. Its originality lies in the application of some network theory indicators to the project risk management field. The construction of the risk network requires the involvement of the project manager and other team members assigned to the risk management process. Its interpretation improves their understanding of risks and their potential interactions. The outcomes of the analysis provide a support for decision-making regarding project risk management. An example of application to a real large engineering project is presented. The conclusion is that some new insights can be found about risks, about their interactions and about the global potential behavior of the project. - Highlights: ► The method addresses the modeling of complexity in project risk analysis. ► Network theory indicators enable other risks than classical criticality analysis to be highlighted. ► This topological analysis improves project manager's understanding of risks and risk interactions. ► This helps project manager to make decisions considering the position in the risk network. ► An application to a real tramway implementation project in a city is provided.

  8. Decision theory and the evaluation of risks and benefits of clinical trials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernabe, Rosemarie D C; van Thiel, Ghislaine J M W; Raaijmakers, Jan A M; van Delden, Johannes J M

    2012-12-01

    Research ethics committees (RECs) are tasked to assess the risks and the benefits of a clinical trial. In previous studies, it was shown that RECs find this task difficult, if not impossible, to do. The current approaches to benefit-risk assessment (i.e. Component Analysis and the Net Risk Test) confound the various risk-benefit tasks, and as such, make balancing impossible. In this article, we show that decision theory, specifically through the expected utility theory and multiattribute utility theory, enable for an explicit and ethically weighted risk-benefit evaluation. This makes a balanced ethical justification possible, and thus a more rationally defensible decision making. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Remediation of at-risk medical students: theory in action

    OpenAIRE

    Winston, K.A.; Vleuten, C.P.M. van der; Scherpbier, A.J.J.A.

    2013-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Previous work has shown that a programme that draws on a blend of theories makes a positive difference to outcomes for students who fail and repeat their first semester at medical school. Exploration of student and teacher perspectives revealed that remediation of struggling medical students can be achieved through a cognitive apprenticeship within a small community of inquiry. This community needs expert teachers capable of performing a unique combination of roles (facilitator, n...

  10. Evaluating Risk Communication After the Fukushima Disaster Based on Nudge Theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murakami, Michio; Tsubokura, Masaharu

    2017-03-01

    Using nudge theory and some examples of risk communication that followed the Fukushima disaster, this article discusses the influences and justifications of risk communication, in addition to how risk communication systems are designed. To assist people in making decisions based on their own value systems, we provide three suggestions, keeping in mind that people can be influenced (ie, "nudged") depending on how risk communication takes place: (1) accumulate knowledge on the process of evaluating how the method of risk communication and a system's default design could impact people; (2) clarify the purpose and outcomes of risk communication; and (3) see what risk communication might be ethically unjustifiable. Quantitative studies on risk communication and collective narratives will provide some ideas for how to design better risk communication systems and to help people make decisions. Furthermore, we have shown examples of unjustifiable risk communication.

  11. A THEORY OF CONSUMER’S PERCEIVED RISK UNDER THE HALO EFFECT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dorian-Laurenţiu FLOREA

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Despite being largely tackled by a manifold of sciences, perceived risk is still a rather unclear concept concerning its formation and update. In today’s economy, where poor purchase decisions are so easy to make, consumers have developed mental shields residing in actions based on perceived risk. This paper develops and tests a theory of perceived risk formation under the halo effect, based on correlation analysis in two forms: rankings individuals on their contribution to the correlations increase and partial correlations. Both internal and external halo effects were found, emerging from the perceived risk component – functional risk, financial risk, social risk, physical risk, psychological risk and time risk –, brand attitude, product category attitude, consumer’s regret, others’ regret expressed through word-of-mouth, recency, and awareness of awareness. The intricate halo that was revealed needs further attention from the scientific community in order to better delimit halo sources and, eventually, to explain its variability.

  12. Incorporating Contagion in Portfolio Credit Risk Models Using Network Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ioannis Anagnostou

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Portfolio credit risk models estimate the range of potential losses due to defaults or deteriorations in credit quality. Most of these models perceive default correlation as fully captured by the dependence on a set of common underlying risk factors. In light of empirical evidence, the ability of such a conditional independence framework to accommodate for the occasional default clustering has been questioned repeatedly. Thus, financial institutions have relied on stressed correlations or alternative copulas with more extreme tail dependence. In this paper, we propose a different remedy—augmenting systematic risk factors with a contagious default mechanism which affects the entire universe of credits. We construct credit stress propagation networks and calibrate contagion parameters for infectious defaults. The resulting framework is implemented on synthetic test portfolios wherein the contagion effect is shown to have a significant impact on the tails of the loss distributions.

  13. Extreme Value Theory Approach to Simultaneous Monitoring and Thresholding of Multiple Risk Indicators

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Einmahl, J.H.J.; Li, J.; Liu, R.Y.

    2006-01-01

    Risk assessments often encounter extreme settings with very few or no occurrences in reality.Inferences about risk indicators in such settings face the problem of insufficient data.Extreme value theory is particularly well suited for handling this type of problems.This paper uses a multivariate

  14. Agency Theory, Futures Markets and Risk Shifting in Commodity Marketing Channels

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuwornu, J.K.M.; Kuiper, W.E.; Pennings, J.M.E.; Meulenberg, M.T.G.

    2004-01-01

    This paper applies agency theory to access risk shifting between the principal (marketing firms) and the agent (farmers) in a food marketing channel. It compares the case in which there is a futures market available for the risk-averse agents with the case in which there is no futures trading. The

  15. Managing business model innovation risks - lessons for theory and practice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Taran, Yariv; Chester Goduscheit, René; Boer, Harry

    2015-01-01

    approach, arguing from a “no risk no reward” aphorism, a sloppy implementation approach towards business model innovation may result in catastrophic, sometimes even fatal, consequences to a firm’s core business. Based on four unsuccessful business model innovation experiences, which took place in three...

  16. Assessing African American Adolescents' Risk for Suicide Attempts: Attachment Theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyon, Maureen E.; Benoit, Marilyn; O'Donnell, Regina M.; Getson, Pamela R.; Silber, Tomas; Walsh, Thomas

    2000-01-01

    Evaluates risk factors in African American adolescent suicide attempters (n=51) and nonsuicidal (n=124) adolescents. Results show that threat of separation from a parental figure, insomnia, neglect, substance abuse, suicidal ideation, and failing grades were the strongest predictors of suicide attempt. Unexpected findings include high levels of…

  17. Exaggerated Risk: Prospect Theory and Probability Weighting in Risky Choice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kusev, Petko; van Schaik, Paul; Ayton, Peter; Dent, John; Chater, Nick

    2009-01-01

    In 5 experiments, we studied precautionary decisions in which participants decided whether or not to buy insurance with specified cost against an undesirable event with specified probability and cost. We compared the risks taken for precautionary decisions with those taken for equivalent monetary gambles. Fitting these data to Tversky and…

  18. Research on Liquidity Risk Evaluation of Chinese A-Shares Market Based on Extension Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bai-Qing, Sun; Peng-Xiang, Liu; Lin, Zhang; Yan-Ge, Li

    This research defines the liquidity risk of stock market in matter-element theory and affair-element theory, establishes the indicator system of the forewarning for liquidity risks,designs the model and the process of early warning using the extension set method, extension dependent function and the comprehensive evaluation model. And the paper studies empirically A-shares market through the data of 1A0001, which prove that the model can better describe liquidity risk of China’s A-share market. At last, it gives the corresponding policy recommendations.

  19. Linking indices for biodiversity monitoring to extinction risk theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCarthy, Michael A; Moore, Alana L; Krauss, Jochen; Morgan, John W; Clements, Christopher F

    2014-12-01

    Biodiversity indices often combine data from different species when used in monitoring programs. Heuristic properties can suggest preferred indices, but we lack objective ways to discriminate between indices with similar heuristics. Biodiversity indices can be evaluated by determining how well they reflect management objectives that a monitoring program aims to support. For example, the Convention on Biological Diversity requires reporting about extinction rates, so simple indices that reflect extinction risk would be valuable. We developed 3 biodiversity indices that are based on simple models of population viability that relate extinction risk to abundance. We based the first index on the geometric mean abundance of species and the second on a more general power mean. In a third index, we integrated the geometric mean abundance and trend. These indices require the same data as previous indices, but they also relate directly to extinction risk. Field data for butterflies and woodland plants and experimental studies of protozoan communities show that the indices correlate with local extinction rates. Applying the index based on the geometric mean to global data on changes in avian abundance suggested that the average extinction probability of birds has increased approximately 1% from 1970 to 2009. © 2014 The Authors. Conservation Biology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc., on behalf of the Society for Conservation Biology.

  20. Issues of the economic risks theory under direct taxation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vyacheslav Aleksandrovich Slavin

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Objective to calculate and justify the probabilistic characteristics of the economic risks of the company selling goods with profit and suffering from the burden of direct taxation. The economic nature and mechanisms of tax risks are described. Methods probabilisticdynamic method based on a few mathematically formulated principles ndash probability principle the principle of measurement etc. The method allows to find the optimal distributions of the phase variables components of the decisions vector of the production system numerical characteristics of which mathematical expectation variance covariance etc. bear the necessary information about the optimal properties of the economic actorsrsquobehavior. Results the basic equation of probabilisticdynamic method ndash the SchrodingerBellman equation ndash was integratedthe function of state was found the normal distribution was obtained of the vector of economic decisions in the phase space of the firm. The phase trajectories and the effective areas of the variables dispersion phase were researched. It is shown that at the intersection of the variation areas of normal distributions corresponding to two different production conditions there is a possibility of spontaneous transitions between these states accompanied by losses of capital assets of the company. The transition probabilities and the expression for average losses of working capital were calculated. It is shown that the inclusion of weak field tax perturbation leads to the modulation of the probability curves and average losses obtained earlier in the work by V.A. Slavin and I.N. Urusova quotMarket dynamics of productioneconomic system. 2. Transitions between production conditions. Elements of risks theoryquot for the company in the absence of taxation. The author outlines the nature of modulation of the main characteristics of tax risks related to the fact that the tax field influences the production system by phase trajectories

  1. Anticipatory vigilance: A grounded theory study of minimising risk within the perioperative setting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Brien, Brid; Andrews, Tom; Savage, Eileen

    2018-01-01

    To explore and explain how nurses minimise risk in the perioperative setting. Perioperative nurses care for patients who are having surgery or other invasive explorative procedures. Perioperative care is increasingly focused on how to improve patient safety. Safety and risk management is a global priority for health services in reducing risk. Many studies have explored safety within the healthcare settings. However, little is known about how nurses minimise risk in the perioperative setting. Classic grounded theory. Ethical approval was granted for all aspects of the study. Thirty-seven nurses working in 11 different perioperative settings in Ireland were interviewed and 33 hr of nonparticipant observation was undertaken. Concurrent data collection and analysis was undertaken using theoretical sampling. Constant comparative method, coding and memoing and were used to analyse the data. Participants' main concern was how to minimise risk. Participants resolved this through engaging in anticipatory vigilance (core category). This strategy consisted of orchestrating, routinising and momentary adapting. Understanding the strategies of anticipatory vigilance extends and provides an in-depth explanation of how nurses' behaviour ensures that risk is minimised in a complex high-risk perioperative setting. This is the first theory situated in the perioperative area for nurses. This theory provides a guide and understanding for nurses working in the perioperative setting on how to minimise risk. It makes perioperative nursing visible enabling positive patient outcomes. This research suggests the need for training and education in maintaining safety and minimising risk in the perioperative setting. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  2. Prospect theory on the brain? Toward a cognitive neuroscience of decision under risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trepel, Christopher; Fox, Craig R; Poldrack, Russell A

    2005-04-01

    Most decisions must be made without advance knowledge of their consequences. Economists and psychologists have devoted much attention to modeling decisions made under conditions of risk in which options can be characterized by a known probability distribution over possible outcomes. The descriptive shortcomings of classical economic models motivated the development of prospect theory (D. Kahneman, A. Tversky, Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 4 (1979) 263-291; A. Tversky, D. Kahneman, Advances in prospect theory: Cumulative representation of uncertainty. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 5 (4) (1992) 297-323) the most successful behavioral model of decision under risk. In the prospect theory, subjective value is modeled by a value function that is concave for gains, convex for losses, and steeper for losses than for gains; the impact of probabilities are characterized by a weighting function that overweights low probabilities and underweights moderate to high probabilities. We outline the possible neural bases of the components of prospect theory, surveying evidence from human imaging, lesion, and neuropharmacology studies as well as animal neurophysiology studies. These results provide preliminary suggestions concerning the neural bases of prospect theory that include a broad set of brain regions and neuromodulatory systems. These data suggest that focused studies of decision making in the context of quantitative models may provide substantial leverage towards a fuller understanding of the cognitive neuroscience of decision making.

  3. Task difficulty, risk, effort and comfort in a simulated driving task--Implications for Risk Allostasis Theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis-Evans, Ben; Rothengatter, Talib

    2009-09-01

    Risk Allostasis Theory states that drivers seek to maintain a feeling of risk within a preferred range [Fuller, R., 2008. What drives the driver? Surface tensions and hidden consensus. In: Keynote at the 4th International Conference on Traffic and Transport Psychology, Washington, DC, August 31-September 4, 2008]. Risk Allostasis Theory is the latest version of Task-Difficulty Homeostasis theory, and is in part based on the findings of experiments where participants were asked to rate the task difficulty, feeling of risk and chance of collision of scenes shown in digitally altered video clips [Fuller, R., McHugh, C., Pender, S., 2008b. Task difficulty and risk in the determination of driver behaviour. Revue européenne de psychologie appliqée 58, 13-21]. The focus of the current research was to expand upon the previous video based experiments using a driving simulator. This allowed participants to be in control of the vehicle rather than acting as passive observers, as well as providing additional speed cues. The results support previous findings that ratings of task difficulty and feeling of risk are related, and that they are also highly related to ratings of effort and moderately related to ratings of comfort and habit. However, the linearly increasing trend for task difficulty and feeling of risk described by the previous research was not observed: instead the findings of this experiment support a threshold effect where ratings of risk (feeling of and chance of loss of control/collision), difficulty, effort, and comfort go through a period of stability and only start to increase once a certain threshold has been crossed. It is within the period of stability where subjective experience of risk and difficulty is low, or absent, that drivers generally prefer to operate.

  4. Consolidating the shared area of investigation between planning theory, risk theory and ethical inquiry

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Basta, C.

    2012-01-01

    Although it is perhaps the most prominent interdisciplinary theme to have emerged in the past decades, in the domain of planning studies the prevention of technological risks has only recently started the pathway towards a rigorous theoretical definition (Boholm and Lofsted 2004; Hayden Lesbirel and

  5. The Research on Safety Management Information System of Railway Passenger Based on Risk Management Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Wenmin; Jia, Yuanhua

    2018-01-01

    Based on the risk management theory and the PDCA cycle model, requirements of the railway passenger transport safety production is analyzed, and the establishment of the security risk assessment team is proposed to manage risk by FTA with Delphi from both qualitative and quantitative aspects. The safety production committee is also established to accomplish performance appraisal, which is for further ensuring the correctness of risk management results, optimizing the safety management business processes and improving risk management capabilities. The basic framework and risk information database of risk management information system of railway passenger transport safety are designed by Ajax, Web Services and SQL technologies. The system realizes functions about risk management, performance appraisal and data management, and provides an efficient and convenient information management platform for railway passenger safety manager.

  6. A Novel Dynamic Algorithm for IT Outsourcing Risk Assessment Based on Transaction Cost Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guodong Cong

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available With the great risk exposed in IT outsourcing, how to assess IT outsourcing risk becomes a critical issue. However, most of approaches to date need to further adapt to the particular complexity of IT outsourcing risk for either falling short in subjective bias, inaccuracy, or efficiency. This paper proposes a dynamic algorithm of risk assessment. It initially forwards extended three layers (risk factors, risks, and risk consequences of transferring mechanism based on transaction cost theory (TCT as the framework of risk analysis, which bridges the interconnection of components in three layers with preset transferring probability and impact. Then, it establishes an equation group between risk factors and risk consequences, which assures the “attribution” more precisely to track the specific sources that lead to certain loss. Namely, in each phase of the outsourcing lifecycle, both the likelihood and the loss of each risk factor and those of each risk are acquired through solving equation group with real data of risk consequences collected. In this “reverse” way, risk assessment becomes a responsive and interactive process with real data instead of subjective estimation, which improves the accuracy and alleviates bias in risk assessment. The numerical case proves the effectiveness of the algorithm compared with the approach forwarded by other references.

  7. A tri-reference point theory of decision making under risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, X T; Johnson, Joseph G

    2012-11-01

    The tri-reference point (TRP) theory takes into account minimum requirements (MR), the status quo (SQ), and goals (G) in decision making under risk. The 3 reference points demarcate risky outcomes and risk perception into 4 functional regions: success (expected value of x ≥ G), gain (SQ G > SQ. We present TRP assumptions and value functions and a mathematical formalization of the theory. We conducted empirical tests of crucial TRP predictions using both explicit and implicit reference points. We show that decision makers consider both G and MR and give greater weight to MR than G, indicating failure aversion (i.e., the disutility of a failure is greater than the utility of a success in the same task) in addition to loss aversion (i.e., the disutility of a loss is greater than the utility of the same amount of gain). Captured by a double-S shaped value function with 3 inflection points, risk preferences switched between risk seeking and risk aversion when the distribution of a gamble straddled a different reference point. The existence of MR (not G) significantly shifted choice preference toward risk aversion even when the outcome distribution of a gamble was well above the MR. Single reference point based models such as prospect theory cannot consistently account for these findings. The TRP theory provides simple guidelines for evaluating risky choices for individuals and organizational management. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved).

  8. Linking Indices for Biodiversity Monitoring to Extinction Risk Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mccarthy, Michael A; Moore, Alana L; Krauss, Jochen; Morgan, John W; Clements, Christopher F

    2014-01-01

    Biodiversity indices often combine data from different species when used in monitoring programs. Heuristic properties can suggest preferred indices, but we lack objective ways to discriminate between indices with similar heuristics. Biodiversity indices can be evaluated by determining how well they reflect management objectives that a monitoring program aims to support. For example, the Convention on Biological Diversity requires reporting about extinction rates, so simple indices that reflect extinction risk would be valuable. We developed 3 biodiversity indices that are based on simple models of population viability that relate extinction risk to abundance. We based the first index on the geometric mean abundance of species and the second on a more general power mean. In a third index, we integrated the geometric mean abundance and trend. These indices require the same data as previous indices, but they also relate directly to extinction risk. Field data for butterflies and woodland plants and experimental studies of protozoan communities show that the indices correlate with local extinction rates. Applying the index based on the geometric mean to global data on changes in avian abundance suggested that the average extinction probability of birds has increased approximately 1% from 1970 to 2009. Conectando Índices para el Monitoreo de la Biodiversidad con la Teoría de Riesgo de Extinción Resumen Los índices de biodiversidad combinan frecuentemente los datos de diferentes especies cuando se usan en los programas de monitoreo. Las propiedades heurísticas pueden sugerir índices preferidos, pero carecemos de medios objetivos para discriminar a los índices con propiedades heurísticas similares. Los índices de biodiversidad pueden evaluarse al determinar qué tan bien reflejan los objetivos de manejo que un programa de monitoreo busca apoyar. Por ejemplo, la Convención sobre la Diversidad Biológica requiere reportar las tasas de extinción, así que los

  9. Quantitative modeling of operational risk in finance and banking using possibility theory

    CERN Document Server

    Chaudhuri, Arindam

    2016-01-01

    This book offers a comprehensive guide to the modelling of operational risk using possibility theory. It provides a set of methods for measuring operational risks under a certain degree of vagueness and impreciseness, as encountered in real-life data. It shows how possibility theory and indeterminate uncertainty-encompassing degrees of belief can be applied in analysing the risk function, and describes the parametric g-and-h distribution associated with extreme value theory as an interesting candidate in this regard. The book offers a complete assessment of fuzzy methods for determining both value at risk (VaR) and subjective value at risk (SVaR), together with a stability estimation of VaR and SVaR. Based on the simulation studies and case studies reported on here, the possibilistic quantification of risk performs consistently better than the probabilistic model. Risk is evaluated by integrating two fuzzy techniques: the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and the fuzzy extension of techniques for order prefere...

  10. A theory-based approach to understanding suicide risk in shelter-seeking women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolford-Clevenger, Caitlin; Smith, Phillip N

    2015-04-01

    Women seeking shelter from intimate partner violence are at an increased risk for suicide ideation and attempts compared to women in the general population. Control-based violence, which is common among shelter-seeking women, may play a pivotal role in the development of suicide ideation and attempts. Current risk assessment and management practices for shelter-seeking women are limited by the lack of an empirically grounded understanding of increased risk in this population. We argue that in order to more effectively promote risk assessment and management, an empirically supported theory that is sensitive to the experiences of shelter-seeking women is needed. Such a theory-driven approach has the benefits of identifying and prioritizing targetable areas for intervention. Here, we review the evidence for the link between coercive control and suicide ideation and attempts from the perspective of Baumeister's escape theory of suicide. This theory has the potential to explain the role of coercive control in the development of suicide ideation and eventual attempts in shelter-seeking women. Implications for suicide risk assessment and prevention in domestic violence shelters are discussed. © The Author(s) 2014.

  11. Risk Oriented Audit Methodology’s Improvement, based on the Fraud Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergei V. Arzhenovskii

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Modern economic development is accompanied by the increasing complexity of the relationship structure, intercompany transactions, the requirements for information disclosure on the entity’s activities. It leads to the opportunities growth of fraudulent representation public companies reporting. The external audit is considered as an institution that resists to negative processes. The issues of improving the tools that assessing the risk of material misstatement of the financial statements due to fraud from the standpoint the fraud theory have been examined here. Determining potential areas in which methodology for risk assessment of material misstatement of the financial statements due to fraud in an audit are based on the modern fraud theory interpretations will be develop. Functional and structural, comparative, logical and historical, deductive and inductive analyst methods have been used. Retrospective analysis on research areas in the fraud theory field has been performed. Perspective directions for improving methodology and methods for risk assessment of material misstatement of the financial statements in an audit have been identified. Methodology development for fraud risk assessment procedures in an audit of financial statements is based on “fraud diamond” theory. Creating new interpretations the fraud theory during last fifteen years is a consequence the expansion opportunities for corporate fraud, one of the most common species which is the financial statements falsification. Changing the list of factors that could initiate the fraud in the company's public reporting requires that the methods of its identification during the audit should be improved. Methodology and methods risk assessment of intentional material misstatement of the financial statements need to be improved in the direction both the modern modification of fraud theory.

  12. MODELLING AND SIMULATING RISKS IN THE TRAINING OF THE HUMAN RESOURCES BY APPLYING THE CHAOS THEORY

    OpenAIRE

    Eugen ROTARESCU

    2012-01-01

    The article approaches the modelling and simulation of risks in the training of the human resources, as well as the forecast of the degree of human resources training impacted by risks by applying the mathematical tools offered by the Chaos Theory and mathematical statistics. We will highlight that the level of knowledge, skills and abilities of the human resources from an organization are autocorrelated in time and they depend on the level of a previous moment of the training, as well as on ...

  13. Supply risk management from a transaction cost and social exchange theory perspective

    OpenAIRE

    Hoffmann, Petra; Schiele, Holger; Song, Michael; Krabbendam, Johannes Jacobus

    2012-01-01

    Supply risk management gained prominence over the last decade, both in the academic discourse and in practical application. This research examines the influence of Transaction Cost characteristics -behavioral uncertainty, environmental uncertainty and asset specificity on supply risk management performance. We also identify two antecedents of the transaction cost constructs based on social exchange theory: dependency and preferred customer status. We used survey data to discover a positive in...

  14. Nursing care in patients with cardiovascular risk based on the theory of Nola J. Pender

    OpenAIRE

    Cadena Estrada, Julio César; Instituto Nacional de Cardiología Ignacio Chávez; González Ortega, Yariela; Universidad de Panamá

    2017-01-01

    Introduction: chronic degenerative diseases such as coronary heart disease are caused by various risk factors, habits and styles of unhealthy life, so that prevention and health promotion based on theories or models of nursing, play an essential role in solving public health problems. Objective: To develop a proposal for implementation of nursing care to patients with cardiovascular risk supported by the Health Promotion Model (HPM) of Nola J Pender. Proposal: The care of people is proposed b...

  15. Risky Business: An Integrated Institutional Theory for Understanding High-Risk Decision Making in Higher Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, Lauren A.; Angulo, A. J.

    2018-01-01

    Lauren A. Turner and A. J. Angulo explore how institutional theory can be applied to explain variance in higher education organizational strategies. Given strong regulatory, normative, and cultural-cognitive pressures to conform, they ask, why do some colleges engage in high-risk decision making? To answer this, they bring together classic and…

  16. Comparison of China's oil import risk. Results based on portfolio theory and a diversification index approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Gang; Liu, Lan-Cui; Wei, Yi-Ming

    2009-01-01

    In recent years, the international oil price has fluctuated violently, bringing about huge risk for the international oil trade. In fact, the risk of crude oil and petroleum product imports is different because of the different import origins and prices. Which import risk is lower for China? From the perspective of oil supply security, how should China portfolio crude oil and petroleum product imports to minimize its oil import risk? Using portfolio theory and a diversification index approach, this paper compares and analyzes the supply, price and transport risks of crude oil and petroleum product imports. Our results show that the following: (1) Specific risk (diversification risk) and marine transport risk of China's petroleum product imports are lower than that of crude oil imports. (2) The average rate of return of China's petroleum product imports is higher than that of crude oil imports. Moreover, the average import price variance of petroleum product imports is lower than that of crude oil imports. Thus, the systematic risk (price risk) of petroleum products is lower too. Therefore, from the perspective of oil supply security, China should increase petroleum product imports to decrease its oil import risk. (author)

  17. Risk Route Choice Analysis and the Equilibrium Model under Anticipated Regret Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    pengcheng yuan

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available The assumption about travellers’ route choice behaviour has major influence on the traffic flow equilibrium analysis. Previous studies about the travellers’ route choice were mainly based on the expected utility maximization theory. However, with the gradually increasing knowledge about the uncertainty of the transportation system, the researchers have realized that there is much constraint in expected util­ity maximization theory, because expected utility maximiza­tion requires travellers to be ‘absolutely rational’; but in fact, travellers are not truly ‘absolutely rational’. The anticipated regret theory proposes an alternative framework to the tra­ditional risk-taking in route choice behaviour which might be more scientific and reasonable. We have applied the antici­pated regret theory to the analysis of the risk route choosing process, and constructed an anticipated regret utility func­tion. By a simple case which includes two parallel routes, the route choosing results influenced by the risk aversion degree, regret degree and the environment risk degree have been analyzed. Moreover, the user equilibrium model based on the anticipated regret theory has been established. The equivalence and the uniqueness of the model are proved; an efficacious algorithm is also proposed to solve the model. Both the model and the algorithm are demonstrated in a real network. By an experiment, the model results and the real data have been compared. It was found that the model re­sults can be similar to the real data if a proper regret degree parameter is selected. This illustrates that the model can better explain the risk route choosing behaviour. Moreover, it was also found that the traveller’ regret degree increases when the environment becomes more and more risky.

  18. Managing Reputational Risk through Environmental Management and Reporting: An Options Theory Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Pineiro-Chousa

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Reputation is a complex and multidimensional concept that may be organized in downside and upside reputational risk. In this article, we present a formal modelling for the management capabilities of environmental management and reporting over reputational risk, considering that reputational risk is becoming increasingly important for organizations and it directly depends on the information available about companies’ environmental performances. As long as the effectiveness of communication and disclosure plays a key role in the process, the usefulness of environmental management and reporting as a hedging instrument for reputational risk is addressed through different levels of information transparency. When considering a scenario of voluntary reporting, we show that environmentally concerned companies can reduce the cost of environmental management as a reputational risk strategy, as well as reducing the potential loss of reputational value from reputational threats and increasing the potential profit from reputational opportunities. In the context of mandatory reporting, we highlight the role of assurance companies as bearers of the risk of bad reputations for non-concerned companies. As a result, this novel approach applies theoretical oriented research from options theory to reputational risk management literature, so that it benefits from the option’s well known theory, robustness, and conclusions.

  19. A discussion of the limitations of the psychometric and cultural theory approaches to risk perception

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sjoeberg, L.

    1996-01-01

    Risk perception has traditionally been conceived as a cognitive phenomenon, basically a question of information processing. The very term perception suggests that information processing is involved and of crucial importance. Kahneman and Tversky suggested that the use of 'heuristics' in the intuitive estimation of probabilities accounts for biased probability perception, hence claiming to explain risk perception as well. The psychometric approach of Slovic et al, a further step in in the cognitive tradition, conceives of perceived risk as a function of general properties of a hazard. However, the psychometric approach is shown here to explain only about 20% of the variance of perceived risk, even less of risk acceptability. Its claim to explanatory power is based on a statistical illusion: mean values were investigated and accounted for, across hazards. A currently popular alternative to the psychometric tradition, Cultural Theory, is even less successful and explains only about 5% of the variance of perceived risk. The claims of this approach were also based on a statistical illusion: 'significant' results were reported and interpreted as being of substantial importance. The present paper presents a new approach: attitude to the risk generating technology, general sensitivity to risks and specific risk explained well over 60% of the variance of perceived risk of nuclear waste, in a study of extensive data from a representative sample of the Swedish population. The attitude component functioning as an explanatory factor of perceived risk, rather than as a consequence of perceived risk, suggests strongly that perceived risk is something other than cognition. Implications for risk communication are discussed. (author)

  20. Do politicians take risks like the rest of us? An experimental test of prospect theory under MPs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Linde, J.; Vis, B.

    Political psychologists have been quick to use prospect theory in their work, realizing its potential for explaining decisions under risk. Applying prospect theory to political decision-making is not without problems, though, and here we address two of these: (1) Does prospect theory actually apply

  1. Do Politicians Take Risks Like the Rest of Us? An Experimental Test of Prospect Theory Under MPs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Linde, Jona; Vis, Barbara

    Political psychologists have been quick to use prospect theory in their work, realizing its potential for explaining decisions under risk. Applying prospect theory to political decision-making is not without problems, though, and here we address two of these: (1) Does prospect theory actually apply

  2. The relevance of the early history of probability theory to current risk assessment practices in mental health care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Large, Matthew

    2013-12-01

    Probability theory is at the base of modern concepts of risk assessment in mental health. The aim of the current paper is to review the key developments in the early history of probability theory in order to enrich our understanding of current risk assessment practices.

  3. Natural disaster risk analysis for critical infrastructure systems: An approach based on statistical learning theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guikema, Seth D.

    2009-01-01

    Probabilistic risk analysis has historically been developed for situations in which measured data about the overall reliability of a system are limited and expert knowledge is the best source of information available. There continue to be a number of important problem areas characterized by a lack of hard data. However, in other important problem areas the emergence of information technology has transformed the situation from one characterized by little data to one characterized by data overabundance. Natural disaster risk assessments for events impacting large-scale, critical infrastructure systems such as electric power distribution systems, transportation systems, water supply systems, and natural gas supply systems are important examples of problems characterized by data overabundance. There are often substantial amounts of information collected and archived about the behavior of these systems over time. Yet it can be difficult to effectively utilize these large data sets for risk assessment. Using this information for estimating the probability or consequences of system failure requires a different approach and analysis paradigm than risk analysis for data-poor systems does. Statistical learning theory, a diverse set of methods designed to draw inferences from large, complex data sets, can provide a basis for risk analysis for data-rich systems. This paper provides an overview of statistical learning theory methods and discusses their potential for greater use in risk analysis

  4. [Reliability theory based on quality risk network analysis for Chinese medicine injection].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Zheng; Kang, Li-Yuan; Fan, Xiao-Hui

    2014-08-01

    A new risk analysis method based upon reliability theory was introduced in this paper for the quality risk management of Chinese medicine injection manufacturing plants. The risk events including both cause and effect ones were derived in the framework as nodes with a Bayesian network analysis approach. It thus transforms the risk analysis results from failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) into a Bayesian network platform. With its structure and parameters determined, the network can be used to evaluate the system reliability quantitatively with probabilistic analytical appraoches. Using network analysis tools such as GeNie and AgenaRisk, we are able to find the nodes that are most critical to influence the system reliability. The importance of each node to the system can be quantitatively evaluated by calculating the effect of the node on the overall risk, and minimization plan can be determined accordingly to reduce their influences and improve the system reliability. Using the Shengmai injection manufacturing plant of SZYY Ltd as a user case, we analyzed the quality risk with both static FMEA analysis and dynamic Bayesian Network analysis. The potential risk factors for the quality of Shengmai injection manufacturing were identified with the network analysis platform. Quality assurance actions were further defined to reduce the risk and improve the product quality.

  5. Exploring Students' Ideas about Risks and Benefits of Nuclear Power Using Risk Perception Theories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kilinc, Ahmet; Boyes, Edward; Stanisstreet, Martin

    2013-01-01

    Due to increased energy demand, Turkey is continuing to explore the possibilities of introducing nuclear power. Gaining acceptance from local populations, however, may be problematic because nuclear power has a negative image and risk perceptions are complicated by a range of psychological and cultural factors. In this study, we explore the views…

  6. Comfort vs risk: a grounded theory about female adolescent behaviour in the sun.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norton, Elizabeth; Holloway, Immy; Galvin, Kathleen

    2014-07-01

    To generate a grounded theory about female adolescent behaviour in the sun. Nurses have key roles in health promotion and skin cancer prevention. Adolescents' resistance to sun safety messages and their vulnerability to sunburn are of concern internationally. Understanding why young women do as they do in the sun may enhance skin cancer prevention, but their behaviour has not been explained before in the UK. The study incorporated a qualitative grounded theory design using the approach of Glaser. Qualitative data were gleaned from group and one-to-one, semi-structured interviews with 20 female participants aged 14-17, research memos and literature. Sampling was purposive and theoretical. Data collection, analysis and theory generation occurred concurrently. Data were analysed using the constant comparative method. Data collection ended when a substantive theory had been generated. Data analysis revealed five categories of findings: fitting in, being myself, being physically comfortable, slipping up and being comfortable (the core category). The theory generated around the core explains how young women direct their sun-related activities towards meeting their physical and psychosocial comfort needs. A contribution of this research is the grounded theory explaining the behaviour of young women in the sun. Further, the theory challenges assumptions that female adolescents necessarily take risks; it explains their sun-related activities in terms of comfort. The theory extends findings from other researchers' descriptive qualitative studies and also appears to apply to young people in countries other than the UK. Understanding the sun-related activity of young women in terms of physical and psychosocial comfort may help nurses to develop new approaches to skin cancer prevention. These could complement existing messages and humanise health promotion. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  7. Can prospect theory explain risk-seeking behavior by terminally ill patients?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasiel, Emma B; Weinfurt, Kevin P; Schulman, Kevin A

    2005-01-01

    Patients with life-threatening conditions sometimes appear to make risky treatment decisions as their condition declines, contradicting the risk-averse behavior predicted by expected utility theory. Prospect theory accommodates such decisions by describing how individuals evaluate outcomes relative to a reference point and how they exhibit risk-seeking behavior over losses relative to that point. The authors show that a patient's reference point for his or her health is a key factor in determining which treatment option the patient selects, and they examine under what circumstances the more risky option is selected. The authors argue that patients' reference points may take time to adjust following a change in diagnosis, with implications for predicting under what circumstances a patient may select experimental or conventional therapies or select no treatment.

  8. Modeling OPEC behavior: theories of risk aversion for oil producer decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reynolds, D.B.

    1999-01-01

    Theories of OPEC such as price leadership, cartel, or game theoretic models suggest an incentive for OPEC members to expand their production capacity well above current levels in order to maximize revenues. Yet individual OPEC members consistently explore for and develop oil fields at a level well below their potential. The cause of low oil exploration and development efforts among OPEC members, and even some non-OPEC members, may have to do with risk aversion. This paper describes an alternative theory for OPEC behavior based on risk aversion using a two piece non-Neumann-Morgenstern utility function similar to Fishburn and Koehenberger (1979, Decision Science 10, 503-518), and Friedman and Savage (1948, Journal of political Economy 56). The model shows possible low oil production behavior. (author)

  9. Differential risk theory as a subset of social exchange theory: implications for making gay marriage culturally normative and for understanding stigma against homosexuals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schumm, Walter R

    2004-02-01

    Differential risk theory, a subset of social exchange and equity theories, is proposed as an explanation for stigma towards homosexuals and as a basis for normative preferences for heterosexual marriage. Numerous gender differences involved in long-term relationships require members of such close relationships to assume greater interpersonal and social risks and thus costs, compared to same-gender relationships. Without compensating rewards or reduced costs, heterosexual relationships would be unfairly disadvantaged. Resistance to making gay marriage normative and/or equivalent legally to heterosexual marriage may be traced, rather than to homophobia, to societal attempts to maintain equity between classes of relationships characterized by inherent differential risks.

  10. Mathematical finance theory review and exercises from binomial model to risk measures

    CERN Document Server

    Gianin, Emanuela Rosazza

    2013-01-01

    The book collects over 120 exercises on different subjects of Mathematical Finance, including Option Pricing, Risk Theory, and Interest Rate Models. Many of the exercises are solved, while others are only proposed. Every chapter contains an introductory section illustrating the main theoretical results necessary to solve the exercises. The book is intended as an exercise textbook to accompany graduate courses in mathematical finance offered at many universities as part of degree programs in Applied and Industrial Mathematics, Mathematical Engineering, and Quantitative Finance.

  11. A Hybrid Approach for Evaluating Faulty Behavior Risk of High-Risk Operations Using ANP and Evidence Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xia-Zhong Zheng

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Hydropower project construction is a high-risk operation, where accidents occur frequently. Moreover, the factors leading to accidents are often human factors, so safety evaluation of these factors for the hydropower projects’ work system is very significant. The Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS framework is applied to build evaluation system. In the evaluation process, correlation analysis is used to form the intercriteria analysis matrix that helps the decision makers to build impact relation matrix. Factor weights are calculated by the Analytic Network Process (ANP. In the index value determination step, the evidence theory is used to eliminate the conflicts of three decision makers and the index values are then calculated. The faulty behavior risk (FBR assessment value is finally obtained. The proposed method is practical and its applicability is proved by an example.

  12. Risk analysis of gravity dam instability using credibility theory Monte Carlo simulation model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xin, Cao; Chongshi, Gu

    2016-01-01

    Risk analysis of gravity dam stability involves complicated uncertainty in many design parameters and measured data. Stability failure risk ratio described jointly by probability and possibility has deficiency in characterization of influence of fuzzy factors and representation of the likelihood of risk occurrence in practical engineering. In this article, credibility theory is applied into stability failure risk analysis of gravity dam. Stability of gravity dam is viewed as a hybrid event considering both fuzziness and randomness of failure criterion, design parameters and measured data. Credibility distribution function is conducted as a novel way to represent uncertainty of influence factors of gravity dam stability. And combining with Monte Carlo simulation, corresponding calculation method and procedure are proposed. Based on a dam section, a detailed application of the modeling approach on risk calculation of both dam foundation and double sliding surfaces is provided. The results show that, the present method is feasible to be applied on analysis of stability failure risk for gravity dams. The risk assessment obtained can reflect influence of both sorts of uncertainty, and is suitable as an index value.

  13. Application of Grounded Theory in Determining Required Elements for IPv6 Risk Assessment Equation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosli Athirah

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The deployment of Internet Protocol version 6 (IPv6 has raised security concerns among the network administrators. Thus, in strengthening the network security, administrator requires an appropriate method to assess the possible risks that occur in their networks. Aware of the needs to calculate risk in IPv6 network, it is essential to an organization to have an equation that is flexible and consider the requirements of the network. However, the existing risk assessment equations do not consider the requirement of the network. Therefore, this paper presents the adaptation of grounded theory to search for elements that are needed to develop IPv6 risk assessment (IRA6 equation. The attack scenarios’ experiments; UDP Flooding, TCP Flooding and Multicast attacks were carried out in different network environment to show how the IPv6 risk assessment equation being used. The result shows that the IRA6 equation is more flexible to be used regardless the network sizes and easier to calculate the risk value compared to the existing risk assessment equations. Hence, network administrators can have a proper decision making and strategic planning for a robust network security.

  14. Work and Risk: Perceptions of Nuclear-Power Personnel. a Study in Grounded Theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fields, Claire Dewitt

    1992-01-01

    The utility industry has devoted time and money to assure personnel within nuclear power plants are informed about occupational risks. Radiation-protection training programs are designed to present information to employees about occupational radiation and protective procedures. Work -related concerns are known to create stress, affect the morale of the workforce, influence collective bargaining, and increase compensation claims. This study was designed to determine perceptions of risk among employees of nuclear power plants and identify variables that influence these perceptions. Four power plants were included in the study, one in Canada and three in the United States. Data were generated through participant observations and interviews of 350 participants during a period of 3 weeks at each plant. Data were gathered and analyzed following procedures advanced by Grounded Theory, a naturalistic methodology used in this study. Training content, information, and communication materials were additional sources of data. Findings indicated employees believed health and safety risks existed within the work environment. Perceptions of risk were influenced by training quality, the work environment, nuclear myths and images of the general public, and fears of family members. Among the three groups of workers, administration personnel, security personnel, and radiation workers, the latter identified a larger number of risks. Workers perceived radiation risks, shift work, and steam pipe ruptures as high-level concerns. Experiencing stress, making mistakes, and fear of sabotage were concerns shared among all employee groups at various levels of concern. Strategies developed by employees were used to control risk. Strategies included teamwork, humor, monitoring, avoidance, reframing, and activism. When risks were perceived as uncontrollable, the employee left the plant. A coping strategy of transferring concerns about radiological risks to nonradiological risks were uncovered in

  15. Exploring sexual risk taking among American Indian adolescents through protection motivation theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chambers, Rachel; Tingey, Lauren; Mullany, Britta; Parker, Sean; Lee, Angelita; Barlow, Allison

    2016-09-01

    This paper examines decision-making around sexual behavior among reservation-based American Indian youth. Focus group discussions were conducted with youth ages 13-19 years old. Through these discussions, we explored youth's knowledge, attitudes and behaviors related to sexual risk taking through the lens of the protection motivation theory to inform the adaptation of an evidence-based HIV prevention intervention. Findings suggest that condom use self-efficacy and HIV prevention knowledge is low, vulnerability to sexually transmitted infections is lacking and alcohol plays a significant role in sexual risk taking in this population. In addition, parental monitoring and peer influence may contribute to or protect against sexual risk taking. Results suggest that future HIV prevention interventions should be delivered to gender-specific peer groups, include a parental component, teach sexual health education and communication skills, integrate substance-use prevention, and work to remove stigma around obtaining and using condoms.

  16. Mean-variance model for portfolio optimization with background risk based on uncertainty theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhai, Jia; Bai, Manying

    2018-04-01

    The aim of this paper is to develop a mean-variance model for portfolio optimization considering the background risk, liquidity and transaction cost based on uncertainty theory. In portfolio selection problem, returns of securities and assets liquidity are assumed as uncertain variables because of incidents or lacking of historical data, which are common in economic and social environment. We provide crisp forms of the model and a hybrid intelligent algorithm to solve it. Under a mean-variance framework, we analyze the portfolio frontier characteristic considering independently additive background risk. In addition, we discuss some effects of background risk and liquidity constraint on the portfolio selection. Finally, we demonstrate the proposed models by numerical simulations.

  17. Time Factor in the Theory of Anthropogenic Risk Prediction in Complex Dynamic Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ostreikovsky, V. A.; Shevchenko, Ye N.; Yurkov, N. K.; Kochegarov, I. I.; Grishko, A. K.

    2018-01-01

    The article overviews the anthropogenic risk models that take into consideration the development of different factors in time that influence the complex system. Three classes of mathematical models have been analyzed for the use in assessing the anthropogenic risk of complex dynamic systems. These models take into consideration time factor in determining the prospect of safety change of critical systems. The originality of the study is in the analysis of five time postulates in the theory of anthropogenic risk and the safety of highly important objects. It has to be stressed that the given postulates are still rarely used in practical assessment of equipment service life of critically important systems. That is why, the results of study presented in the article can be used in safety engineering and analysis of critically important complex technical systems.

  18. Risk Modeling of Interdependent Complex Systems of Systems: Theory and Practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haimes, Yacov Y

    2018-01-01

    The emergence of the complexity characterizing our systems of systems (SoS) requires a reevaluation of the way we model, assess, manage, communicate, and analyze the risk thereto. Current models for risk analysis of emergent complex SoS are insufficient because too often they rely on the same risk functions and models used for single systems. These models commonly fail to incorporate the complexity derived from the networks of interdependencies and interconnectedness (I-I) characterizing SoS. There is a need to reevaluate currently practiced risk analysis to respond to this reality by examining, and thus comprehending, what makes emergent SoS complex. The key to evaluating the risk to SoS lies in understanding the genesis of characterizing I-I of systems manifested through shared states and other essential entities within and among the systems that constitute SoS. The term "essential entities" includes shared decisions, resources, functions, policies, decisionmakers, stakeholders, organizational setups, and others. This undertaking can be accomplished by building on state-space theory, which is fundamental to systems engineering and process control. This article presents a theoretical and analytical framework for modeling the risk to SoS with two case studies performed with the MITRE Corporation and demonstrates the pivotal contributions made by shared states and other essential entities to modeling and analysis of the risk to complex SoS. A third case study highlights the multifarious representations of SoS, which require harmonizing the risk analysis process currently applied to single systems when applied to complex SoS. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  19. A Grey Theory Based Approach to Big Data Risk Management Using FMEA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maisa Mendonça Silva

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Big data is the term used to denote enormous sets of data that differ from other classic databases in four main ways: (huge volume, (high velocity, (much greater variety, and (big value. In general, data are stored in a distributed fashion and on computing nodes as a result of which big data may be more susceptible to attacks by hackers. This paper presents a risk model for big data, which comprises Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA and Grey Theory, more precisely grey relational analysis. This approach has several advantages: it provides a structured approach in order to incorporate the impact of big data risk factors; it facilitates the assessment of risk by breaking down the overall risk to big data; and finally its efficient evaluation criteria can help enterprises reduce the risks associated with big data. In order to illustrate the applicability of our proposal in practice, a numerical example, with realistic data based on expert knowledge, was developed. The numerical example analyzes four dimensions, that is, managing identification and access, registering the device and application, managing the infrastructure, and data governance, and 20 failure modes concerning the vulnerabilities of big data. The results show that the most important aspect of risk to big data relates to data governance.

  20. Extreme Value Theory and Value at Risk. Application to oil market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marimoutou, Velayoudoum; Raggad, Bechir; Trabelsi, Abdelwahed

    2009-01-01

    Recent increases in energy prices, especially oil prices, have become a principal concern for consumers, corporations, and governments. Most analysts believe that oil price fluctuations have considerable consequences on economic activity. Oil markets have become relatively free, resulting in a high degree of oil-price volatility and generating radical changes to world energy and oil industries. Consequently, oil markets are naturally vulnerable to significant high price shifts. An example of such a case is the oil embargo crisis of 1973. In this newly created climate, protection against market risk has become a necessity. Value at Risk (VaR) measures risk exposure at a given probability level and is very important for risk management. Appealing aspects of Extreme Value Theory (EVT) have made convincing arguments for its use in managing energy price risks. In this paper, we model VaR for long and short trading positions in oil market by applying both unconditional and conditional EVT models to forecast Value at Risk. These models are compared to the performances of other well-known modelling techniques, such as GARCH, Historical Simulation and Filtered Historical Simulation. Both conditional EVT and Filtered Historical Simulation procedures offer a major improvement over the conventional methods. Furthermore, GARCH(1, 1)-t model may provide equally good results which are comparable to two combined procedures. Finally, our results confirm the importance of filtering process for the success of standard approaches. (author)

  1. Extreme Value Theory and Value at Risk. Application to oil market

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marimoutou, Velayoudoum [GREQAM, Universite de la Mediterranee, Institut Francais de Pondichery (France); Raggad, Bechir; Trabelsi, Abdelwahed [BESTMOD, Institut Superieur de Gestion de Tunis (Tunisia)

    2009-07-15

    Recent increases in energy prices, especially oil prices, have become a principal concern for consumers, corporations, and governments. Most analysts believe that oil price fluctuations have considerable consequences on economic activity. Oil markets have become relatively free, resulting in a high degree of oil-price volatility and generating radical changes to world energy and oil industries. Consequently, oil markets are naturally vulnerable to significant high price shifts. An example of such a case is the oil embargo crisis of 1973. In this newly created climate, protection against market risk has become a necessity. Value at Risk (VaR) measures risk exposure at a given probability level and is very important for risk management. Appealing aspects of Extreme Value Theory (EVT) have made convincing arguments for its use in managing energy price risks. In this paper, we model VaR for long and short trading positions in oil market by applying both unconditional and conditional EVT models to forecast Value at Risk. These models are compared to the performances of other well-known modelling techniques, such as GARCH, Historical Simulation and Filtered Historical Simulation. Both conditional EVT and Filtered Historical Simulation procedures offer a major improvement over the conventional methods. Furthermore, GARCH(1, 1)-t model may provide equally good results which are comparable to two combined procedures. Finally, our results confirm the importance of filtering process for the success of standard approaches. (author)

  2. Synthesis strategy: building a culturally sensitive mid-range theory of risk perception using literary, quantitative, and qualitative methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siaki, Leilani A; Loescher, Lois J; Trego, Lori L

    2013-03-01

    This article presents a discussion of development of a mid-range theory of risk perception. Unhealthy behaviours contribute to the development of health inequalities worldwide. The link between perceived risk and successful health behaviour change is inconclusive, particularly in vulnerable populations. This may be attributed to inattention to culture. The synthesis strategy of theory building guided the process using three methods: (1) a systematic review of literature published between 2000-2011 targeting perceived risk in vulnerable populations; (2) qualitative and (3) quantitative data from a study of Samoan Pacific Islanders at high risk of cardiovascular disease and diabetes. Main concepts of this theory include risk attention, appraisal processes, cognition, and affect. Overarching these concepts is health-world view: cultural ways of knowing, beliefs, values, images, and ideas. This theory proposes the following: (1) risk attention varies based on knowledge of the health risk in the context of health-world views; (2) risk appraisals are influenced by affect, health-world views, cultural customs, and protocols that intersect with the health risk; (3) strength of cultural beliefs, values, and images (cultural identity) mediate risk attention and risk appraisal influencing the likelihood that persons will engage in health-promoting behaviours that may contradict cultural customs/protocols. Interventions guided by a culturally sensitive mid-range theory may improve behaviour-related health inequalities in vulnerable populations. The synthesis strategy is an intensive process for developing a culturally sensitive mid-range theory. Testing of the theory will ascertain its usefulness for reducing health inequalities in vulnerable groups. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  3. Risk and Rationality in Adolescent Decision Making: Implications for Theory, Practice, and Public Policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reyna, Valerie F; Farley, Frank

    2006-09-01

    conditions), adolescents are capable of rational decision making to achieve their goals. In practice, much depends on the particular situation in which a decision is made. In the heat of passion, in the presence of peers, on the spur of the moment, in unfamiliar situations, when trading off risks and benefits favors bad long-term outcomes, and when behavioral inhibition is required for good outcomes, adolescents are likely to reason more poorly than adults do. Brain maturation in adolescence is incomplete. Impulsivity, sensation seeking, thrill seeking, depression, and other individual differences also contribute to risk taking that resists standard risk-reduction interventions, although some conditions such as depression can be effectively treated with other approaches. Major explanatory models of risky decision making can be roughly divided into (a) those, including health-belief models and the theory of planned behavior, that adhere to a "rational" behavioral decision-making framework that stresses deliberate, quantitative trading off of risks and benefits; and (b) those that emphasize nondeliberative reaction to the perceived gists or prototypes in the immediate decision environment. (A gist is a fuzzy mental representation of the general meaning of information or experience; a prototype is a mental representation of a standard or typical example of a category.) Although perceived risks and especially benefits predict behavioral intentions and risk-taking behavior, behavioral willingness is an even better predictor of susceptibility to risk taking-and has unique explanatory power-because adolescents are willing to do riskier things than they either intend or expect to do. Dual-process models, such as the prototype/willingness model and fuzzy-trace theory, identify two divergent paths to risk taking: a reasoned and a reactive route. Such models explain apparent contradictions in the literature, including different causes of risk taking for different individuals

  4. Theory-based approaches to understanding public emergency preparedness: implications for effective health and risk communication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paek, Hye-Jin; Hilyard, Karen; Freimuth, Vicki; Barge, J Kevin; Mindlin, Michele

    2010-06-01

    Recent natural and human-caused disasters have awakened public health officials to the importance of emergency preparedness. Guided by health behavior and media effects theories, the analysis of a statewide survey in Georgia reveals that self-efficacy, subjective norm, and emergency news exposure are positively associated with the respondents' possession of emergency items and their stages of emergency preparedness. Practical implications suggest less focus on demographics as the sole predictor of emergency preparedness and more comprehensive measures of preparedness, including both a person's cognitive stage of preparedness and checklists of emergency items on hand. We highlight the utility of theory-based approaches for understanding and predicting public emergency preparedness as a way to enable more effective health and risk communication.

  5. Reducing skin cancer risk: an intervention based on protection motivation theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McClendon, B T; Prentice-Dunn, S

    2001-05-01

    Caucasian college students who intentionally tanned participated in a brief skin cancer intervention based on protection motivation theory (PMT). This intervention targeted skin appearance and consisted of brief lectures, a comprehensive essay, video clips about a young man who died of melanoma, and short discussions. Compared to a waitlist control group, the intervention group showed increases on PMT variables and intentions at post-test. The waitlist group later received the intervention and showed similar increases. Additionally, all but one PMT variable maintained post-test levels at a one-month follow-up. Photographs taken at post-test and at the one-month follow-up were judged by raters blind to the hypothesis. Seventy-two percent of participants were judged to have lighter skin whereas only 16 percent had darker skin. These results provide additional support for theory-based methods for changing maladaptive attitudes and behaviors associated with skin cancer risk.

  6. Protection motivation theory and adolescent drug trafficking: relationship between health motivation and longitudinal risk involvement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Ying; Stanton, Bonita F; Li, Xiaoming; Galbraith, Jennifer; Cole, Matthew L

    2005-03-01

    To assess health protection motivation as explained by the constructs of protection motivation theory (PMT) and its association with drug trafficking over 2 years. The sample included 817 African American youth (13-16 years old) participating in an adolescent risk-reduction program. We developed an instrument measuring the level of health protection motivation (LHPM) using factor analysis. Changes in LHPM over time were examined among drug traffickers, abstainers, initiators, and nonrisk youths. In sum, 151 participants reported selling and/or delivering drugs during the study period. The significant inverse correlation between drug-trafficking intention and health protection motivation was consistent with PMT. Changes in LHPM were strongly associated with the dynamics of behavior over 2 years. Adolescent drug trafficking can be predicted by an overall level of health protection motivation. PMT and related theories should be considered in the design of drug-trafficking prevention intervention.

  7. Decision making for animal health and welfare: integrating risk-benefit analysis with prospect theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansson, Helena; Lagerkvist, Carl Johan

    2014-06-01

    This study integrated risk-benefit analysis with prospect theory with the overall objective of identifying the type of management behavior represented by farmers' choices of mastitis control options (MCOs). Two exploratory factor analyses, based on 163 and 175 Swedish farmers, respectively, highlighted attitudes to MCOs related to: (1) grouping cows and applying milking order to prevent spread of existing infection and (2) working in a precautionary way to prevent mastitis occurring. This was interpreted as being based on (1) reactive management behavior on detection of udder-health problems in individual cows and (2) proactive management behavior to prevent mastitis developing. Farmers' assessments of these MCOs were found to be based on asymmetrical evaluations of risks and benefits, suggesting that farmers' management behavior depends on their individual reference point. In particular, attitudes to MCOs related to grouping cows and applying milking order to prevent the spread of mastitis once infected cows were detected were stronger in the risk domain than in the benefit domain, in accordance with loss aversion. In contrast, attitudes to MCOs related to working in a precautionary way to prevent cows from becoming infected in the first place were stronger in the benefit domain than in the risk domain, in accordance with reverse loss aversion. These findings are of practical importance for farmers and agribusiness and in public health protection work to reduce the current extensive use of antibiotics in dairy herds. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

  8. Behavioural Susceptibility Theory: Professor Jane Wardle and the Role of Appetite in Genetic Risk of Obesity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Llewellyn, Clare H; Fildes, Alison

    2017-03-01

    There is considerable variability in human body weight, despite the ubiquity of the 'obesogenic' environment. Human body weight has a strong genetic basis and it has been hypothesised that genetic susceptibility to the environment explains variation in human body weight, with differences in appetite being implicated as the mediating mechanism; so-called 'behavioural susceptibility theory' (BST), first described by Professor Jane Wardle. This review summarises the evidence for the role of appetite as a mediator of genetic risk of obesity. Variation in appetitive traits is observable from infancy, drives early weight gain and is highly heritable in infancy and childhood. Obesity-related common genetic variants identified through genome-wide association studies show associations with appetitive traits, and appetite mediates part of the observed association between genetic risk and adiposity. Obesity results from an interaction between genetic susceptibility to overeating and exposure to an 'obesogenic' food environment.

  9. Game theory and risk-based leveed river system planning with noncooperation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hui, Rui; Lund, Jay R.; Madani, Kaveh

    2016-01-01

    Optimal risk-based levee designs are usually developed for economic efficiency. However, in river systems with multiple levees, the planning and maintenance of different levees are controlled by different agencies or groups. For example, along many rivers, levees on opposite riverbanks constitute a simple leveed river system with each levee designed and controlled separately. Collaborative planning of the two levees can be economically optimal for the whole system. Independent and self-interested landholders on opposite riversides often are willing to separately determine their individual optimal levee plans, resulting in a less efficient leveed river system from an overall society-wide perspective (the tragedy of commons). We apply game theory to simple leveed river system planning where landholders on each riverside independently determine their optimal risk-based levee plans. Outcomes from noncooperative games are analyzed and compared with the overall economically optimal outcome, which minimizes net flood cost system-wide. The system-wide economically optimal solution generally transfers residual flood risk to the lower-valued side of the river, but is often impractical without compensating for flood risk transfer to improve outcomes for all individuals involved. Such compensation can be determined and implemented with landholders' agreements on collaboration to develop an economically optimal plan. By examining iterative multiple-shot noncooperative games with reversible and irreversible decisions, the costs of myopia for the future in making levee planning decisions show the significance of considering the externalities and evolution path of dynamic water resource problems to improve decision-making.

  10. Risk perception and communication in vaccination decisions: a fuzzy-trace theory approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reyna, Valerie F

    2012-05-28

    The tenets of fuzzy-trace theory, along with prior research on risk perception and risk communication, are used to develop a process model of vaccination decisions in the era of Web 2.0. The theory characterizes these decisions in terms of background knowledge, dual mental representations (verbatim and gist), retrieval of values, and application of values to representations in context. Lack of knowledge interferes with the ability to extract the essential meaning, or gist, of vaccination messages. Prevention decisions have, by definition, a status quo option of "feeling okay." Psychological evidence from other prevention decisions, such as cancer screening, indicates that many people initially mentally represent their decision options in terms of simple, categorical gist: a choice between (a) a feeling-okay option (e.g., the unvaccinated status quo) versus (b) taking up preventive behavior that can have two potential categorical outcomes: feeling okay or not feeling okay. Hence, applying the same theoretical rules as used to explain framing effects and the Allais paradox, the decision to get a flu shot, for example, boils down to feeling okay (not sick) versus feeling okay (not sick) or not feeling okay (sick, side effects, or death). Because feeling okay is superior to not feeling okay (a retrieved value), this impoverished gist supports choosing not to have the flu vaccine. Anti-vaccination sources provide more coherent accounts of the gist of vaccination than official sources, filling a need to understand rare adverse outcomes. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Behavioral risk-reduction strategies to prevent HIV infection among homosexual men: a grounded theory approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Wit, J B; Teunis, N; van Griensven, G J; Sandfort, T G

    1994-12-01

    To be able to design effective health education interventions for homosexual men, it is necessary to understand determinants of safe and unsafe sex from the perspective of those involved. In this qualitative study, therefore, an open approach was taken to allow for this perspective. Interviews were conducted with 50 randomly selected HIV-antibody negative participants in the Amsterdam Cohort Study. Detailed questions were asked about sexual interactions and behaviors with steady and nonsteady partners. Whether or not homosexual men consciously protected themselves from HIV infection and which strategy they adopted was found to depend on three major factors: 1) motivation and intention, 2) significance of anal sex, and 3) risk perception within specific relationships. From a theoretical perspective results indicate that, next to the centrality of individual motivation as postulated in both the Theory of Reasoned Action and the Theory of Planned Behavior, symbolic meaning inherent in sexual acts, as well as type of relationship are important determinants of protective sexual behaviors that have to be taken into account to understand adequately why homosexual men engage in safe or unsafe sex. Some strategies employed by homosexual men carry uncertainties that continue to put them at increased risk for HIV infection. Health education interventions can be designed to address these issues.

  12. Theory of planned behavior interventions for reducing heterosexual risk behaviors: A meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tyson, Mandy; Covey, Judith; Rosenthal, Harriet E S

    2014-12-01

    The meta-analysis reported here examined interventions informed by the theory of planned behavior (TPB) or theory of reasoned action (TRA) aimed at reducing heterosexual risk behaviors (prevention of STDs and unwanted pregnancy). Studies were eligible for inclusion if they were either randomized control trials or quasi-experimental studies that compared the TPB-based intervention against a control group. Search strategy consisted of articles identified in previous reviews, keyword search through search engines, examination of key journals, and contacting key experts. Forty-seven intervention studies were included in the meta-analysis. Random effects models revealed that pooled effect sizes for TPB-based interventions had small but significant effects on behavior and other secondary outcomes (i.e., knowledge, attitudes, normative beliefs, perceived behavioral control, and intentions). Significant heterogeneity found between effect sizes was explored using metaregression. Larger effects were found for interventions that provided opportunities for social comparison. The TPB provides a valuable framework for designing interventions to change heterosexual risk behaviors. However, effect sizes varied quite substantially between studies, and further research is needed to explore the reasons why.

  13. Assessing the optimism-pessimism debate: Nuclear proliferation, nuclear risks, and theories of state action

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Busch, Nathan Edward

    2001-01-01

    This dissertation focuses on the current debate in international relations literature over the risks associated with the proliferation of nuclear weapons. On this subject, IR scholars are divided into roughly two schools: proliferation 'optimists,' who argue that proliferation can be beneficial and that its associated hazards are at least surmountable, and proliferation 'pessimists,' who believe the opposite. This debate centers upon a theoretical disagreement about how best to explain and predict the behavior of states. Optimists generally ground their arguments on rational deterrence theory and maintain that nuclear weapons can actually increase stability among states, while pessimists often ground their arguments on 'organization theory,' which contends that organizational, bureaucratic, and other factors prevent states from acting rationally. A major difficulty with the proliferation debate, however, is that both sides tend to advance their respective theoretical positions without adequately supporting them with solid empirical evidence. This dissertation detailed analyses of the nuclear programs in the United States, Russia, China, India, and Pakistan to determine whether countries with nuclear weapons have adequate controls over their nuclear arsenals and tissue material stockpiles (such as highly enriched uranium and plutonium). These case studies identify the strengths and weaknesses of different systems of nuclear controls and help predict what types of controls proliferating states are likely to employ. On the basis of the evidence gathered from these cases, this dissertation concludes that a further spread of nuclear weapons would tend to have seriously negative effects on international stability by increasing risks of accidental, unauthorized, or inadvertent use of nuclear weapons and risks of thefts of fissile materials for use in nuclear or radiological devices by aspiring nuclear states or terrorist groups. (author)

  14. Random matrix theory filters in portfolio optimisation: A stability and risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daly, J.; Crane, M.; Ruskin, H. J.

    2008-07-01

    Random matrix theory (RMT) filters, applied to covariance matrices of financial returns, have recently been shown to offer improvements to the optimisation of stock portfolios. This paper studies the effect of three RMT filters on the realised portfolio risk, and on the stability of the filtered covariance matrix, using bootstrap analysis and out-of-sample testing. We propose an extension to an existing RMT filter, (based on Krzanowski stability), which is observed to reduce risk and increase stability, when compared to other RMT filters tested. We also study a scheme for filtering the covariance matrix directly, as opposed to the standard method of filtering correlation, where the latter is found to lower the realised risk, on average, by up to 6.7%. We consider both equally and exponentially weighted covariance matrices in our analysis, and observe that the overall best method out-of-sample was that of the exponentially weighted covariance, with our Krzanowski stability-based filter applied to the correlation matrix. We also find that the optimal out-of-sample decay factors, for both filtered and unfiltered forecasts, were higher than those suggested by Riskmetrics [J.P. Morgan, Reuters, Riskmetrics technical document, Technical Report, 1996. http://www.riskmetrics.com/techdoc.html], with those for the latter approaching a value of α=1. In conclusion, RMT filtering reduced the realised risk, on average, and in the majority of cases when tested out-of-sample, but increased the realised risk on a marked number of individual days-in some cases more than doubling it.

  15. Nuclear terrorism risk analysis using game theory. Case study of sea transportation of MOX fuel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakatani, Eri; Tanaka, Satoru; Choi, Jor-Shan

    2010-01-01

    While considerable attention and resources have been directed towards improving nuclear security in Japan in response to the threat of nuclear terrorism, the transport of nuclear material raises concern by the public as indicated in the recent return of MOX fuel from Europe. This concern cannot be adequately addressed by the government through communications with the public because of the confidential nature of such transport. Also, it remains a challenge for adequately assessing the nuclear terrorism risk because many key parameters associated with such assessment cannot be derived from statistical data and reflect actors' intentions unlike assessment on natural disasters. This study proposes an assessment methodology which introduces game theory to deduce the correlations between those key parameters and can be used to analyze the nuclear terrorism risk, both quantitatively and qualitatively for the civilian use of nuclear power. Risk will be calculated by Monte Carlo methods based on probability distributions set for actors' utilities. A case-study of transporting the MOX fuel by sea is also included. (author)

  16. Prospect theory based estimation of drivers' risk attitudes in route choice behaviors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Lizhen; Zhong, Shiquan; Ma, Shoufeng; Jia, Ning

    2014-12-01

    This paper applied prospect theory (PT) to describe drivers' route choice behavior under Variable Message Sign (VMS), which presented visual traffic information to assist them to make route choice decisions. A quite rich empirical data from questionnaire and field spot was used to estimate parameters of PT. In order to make the parameters more realistic with drivers' attitudes, they were classified into different types by significant factors influencing their behaviors. Based on the travel time distribution of alternative routes and route choice results from questionnaire, the parameterized value function of each category was figured out, which represented drivers' risk attitudes and choice characteristics. The empirical verification showed that the estimates were acceptable and effective. The result showed drivers' risk attitudes and route choice characteristics could be captured by PT under real-time information shown on VMS. For practical application, once drivers' route choice characteristics and parameters were identified, their route choice behavior under different road conditions could be predicted accurately, which was the basis of traffic guidance measures formulation and implementation for targeted traffic management. Moreover, the heterogeneous risk attitudes among drivers should be considered when releasing traffic information and regulating traffic flow. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Exploring the feasibility of theory synthesis: a worked example in the field of health related risk-taking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pound, Pandora; Campbell, Rona

    2015-01-01

    The idea of synthesising theory is receiving attention within public health as part of a drive to design theoretically informed interventions. Theory synthesis is not a new idea, however, having been debated by sociologists for several decades. We consider the various methodological approaches to theory synthesis and test the feasibility of one such approach by synthesising a small number of sociological theories relevant to health related risk-taking. The synthesis consisted of three stages: (i) synthesis preparation, wherein parts of relevant theories were extracted and summarised; (ii) synthesis which involved comparing theories for points of convergence and divergence and bringing together those points that converge; and (iii) synthesis refinement whereby the synthesis was interrogated for further theoretical insights. Our synthesis suggests that serious and sustained risk-taking is associated with social isolation, liminality and a person's position in relation to the dominant social group. We reflect upon the methodological and philosophical issues raised by the practice of theory synthesis, concluding that it has the potential to reinvigorate theory and make it more robust and accessible for practical application. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  18. Health Risk Perceptions and Exercise in Older Adulthood: An Application of Protection Motivation Theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruthig, Joelle C

    2016-09-01

    Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) was applied to explore the relationship between perceived risk of acute health crises and intent to exercise. Interviews of 351 community-living older adults assessed prior physical activity (PPA), all PMT components, and exercise intent. A multi-group structural equation model revealed gender differences in PMT predictors of exercise intent. PPA, age, self-efficacy, and response efficacy directly predicted men's intent. Women's PPA and age predicted PMT components of self-efficacy and response costs, which predicted intent. Findings have implications for devising interventions to enhance physical activity in later life by targeting different PMT components for older men and women. © The Author(s) 2014.

  19. Collision Avoidance Short Course: Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis - NASA Robotic CARA. Part I: ; Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hejduk, M. D.; Frigm, Ryan C.

    2015-01-01

    Satellite conjunction assessment is perhaps the fastest growing area in space situational awareness and protection with military, civil and commercial satellite owner-operators embracing more and more sophisticated processes to avoid the avoidable - namely collisions between high value space assets and orbital debris. NASA and Centre National d'Etudes Spatiales (CNES) have collaborated to offer an introductory short course on all the major aspects of the conjunctions assessment problem. This half-day course will cover satellite conjunction dynamics and theory. Joint Space Operations Center (JsPOC) conjunction data products, major risk assessment parameters and plots, conjunction remediation decision support, and present and future challenges. This briefing represents the NASA portion of the course.

  20. Education for Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR: Linking Theory with Practice in Ghana’s Basic Schools

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Priscilla T. Apronti

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Current understanding of disaster risk reduction (DRR concurs that, when provided the right education, children have the potential to reduce their own vulnerability and the vulnerability of others in their community. What, then, comprises the right education for DRR? Research has established the need for disaster education to address the causes and effects, prevention and response, and management and recovery from disaster events. The educational process must include diverse and practical techniques that reinforce disaster knowledge and builds a culture of safety and resilience amongst students. Drawing on syllabus content analysis and field research in two rural communities in semi-arid Northern Ghana, this study explored the presence and nature of DRR within the syllabi of the basic school system. By comparing the result of the content analysis with results from interviews and questionnaires completed by teachers and students, significant gaps were identified between the disaster pedagogy outlined in the syllabi (theory and that which occurs in the classroom (practice. It was realized that while the theory outlines active and innovative techniques for teaching, learning, and evaluating DRR lessons, various challenges hinder the practical application of these techniques in the classroom. The study concludes that a lack of teacher training and professional development, and inadequate teaching and learning materials, generally account for these results. A new and consolidated effort is required from all stakeholders to train teachers and to provide the appropriate learning materials to improve on the current DRR education.

  1. Value-at-risk estimation with wavelet-based extreme value theory: Evidence from emerging markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cifter, Atilla

    2011-06-01

    This paper introduces wavelet-based extreme value theory (EVT) for univariate value-at-risk estimation. Wavelets and EVT are combined for volatility forecasting to estimate a hybrid model. In the first stage, wavelets are used as a threshold in generalized Pareto distribution, and in the second stage, EVT is applied with a wavelet-based threshold. This new model is applied to two major emerging stock markets: the Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) and the Budapest Stock Exchange (BUX). The relative performance of wavelet-based EVT is benchmarked against the Riskmetrics-EWMA, ARMA-GARCH, generalized Pareto distribution, and conditional generalized Pareto distribution models. The empirical results show that the wavelet-based extreme value theory increases predictive performance of financial forecasting according to number of violations and tail-loss tests. The superior forecasting performance of the wavelet-based EVT model is also consistent with Basel II requirements, and this new model can be used by financial institutions as well.

  2. Testing the incentive-sensitization theory with at-risk drinkers: wanting, liking, and alcohol consumption.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ostafin, Brian D; Marlatt, G Alan; Troop-Gordon, Wendy

    2010-03-01

    Motivational models of addiction typically propose that alcohol and drugs are desired because of their hedonic effects (i.e., increasing pleasure or reducing distress). In contrast, the incentive-sensitization theory proposes that wanting motivation and liking motivation are separable and that after repeated substance use, motivation shifts from liking to wanting. Using a sample of 85 at-risk drinkers (as defined by the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism), in the current study we examined the separability of liking motivation and wanting motivation for alcohol and whether years of drinking experience was associated with an increased role for wanting motivation and a decreased role for liking motivation. Consumption was measured with a free-drinking task. Wanting motivation was assessed immediately before drinking, and liking was assessed immediately after drinking had begun. The results indicated that (a) wanting motivation predicted variance of consumption unique from that accounted for by liking motivation, (b) longer drinking experience was associated with a decreased relation between liking motivation and consumption, and (c) longer drinking experience was not associated with an increased relation between wanting motivation and consumption. The results provide partial support for the incentive-sensitization theory.

  3. Research and development modelling in the frame of search - prognosis - risk theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Valeca, Serban Constantin

    2002-01-01

    /efficiency descriptors is discussed through the re-engineering concept viewed as a presently optimal means to ensure sustainable development of power systems with nuclear injection. The monograph is structured in the following nine chapters: 1. Conceptual layout; 1.1 Trends in the re-engineering of power systems with nuclear injection; 1.2 The work's goal highlighting the new aspects; 2. Cybernetic principles and models in operational research applied to classic and nonclassical power systems; 2.1 Principles and models of operational research; 2.2 The cybernetics of structure and power fluxes; 3. Management of sustainable development with power systems with nuclear injection; 3.1. Descriptors and objectives of sustainable development; 3.2 Sustainable development of power systems in the frame of operational research; 4. Managing the nuclear risk; 4.1 Descriptors and models of nuclear risks; 4.2 Monitoring systems of risk transforming it in resource savings; 5. Management of catastrophes and power chaos; 5.1 Premises of catastrophe theory and power chaos; 5. 2 Critical issues in dynamical systems; 6. Management of electric energy quality; 6.1 Quality indicators; 6.2 The risk of live cells exposed to electromagnetic field; 7. Informatics of nuclear electric power systems; 7.1 Premises and trends in the field of nuclear informatics; 7.2 Informatics engineering of nuclear systems modelled in game theory; 8. Economic efficiency of power systems with nuclear injection; 8.1 Holistic indicator models within the economic re-engineering concept; 8.2 Logical schemes for computing the indicators and the program product; 9. Conclusions and operational proposals; 9.1 A synthesis of the exposed ideas; 9.2 Novel aspects of the research undertaken

  4. Interest in and reactions to genetic risk information: The role of implicit theories and self-affirmation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taber, Jennifer M; Klein, William M P; Persky, Susan; Ferrer, Rebecca A; Kaufman, Annette R; Thai, Chan L; Harris, Peter R

    2017-10-01

    Implicit theories reflect core assumptions about whether human attributes are malleable or fixed: Incremental theorists believe a characteristic is malleable whereas entity theorists believe it is fixed. People with entity theories about health may be less likely to engage in risk-mitigating behavior. Spontaneous self-affirmation (e.g., reflecting on one's values when threatened) may lessen defensiveness and unhealthy behaviors associated with fixed beliefs, and reduce the likelihood of responding to health risk information with fixed beliefs. Across two studies conducted in the US from 2012 to 2015, we investigated how self-affirmation and implicit theories about health and body weight were linked to engagement with genetic risk information. In Study 1, participants in a genome sequencing trial (n = 511) completed cross-sectional assessments of implicit theories, self-affirmation, and intentions to learn, share, and use genetic information. In Study 2, overweight women (n = 197) were randomized to receive genetic or behavioral explanations for weight; participants completed surveys assessing implicit theories, self-affirmation, self-efficacy, motivation, and intentions. Fixed beliefs about weight were infrequently endorsed across studies (10.8-15.2%). In Study 1, participants with stronger fixed theories were less interested in learning and using genetic risk information about medically actionable disease; these associations were weaker among participants higher in self-affirmation. In Study 2, among participants given behavioral explanations for weight, stronger fixed theories about weight were associated with lower motivation and intentions to eat a healthy diet. Among participants given genetic explanations, being higher in self-affirmation was associated with less fixed beliefs. Stronger health-related fixed theories may decrease the likelihood of benefiting from genetic information, but less so for people who self-affirm. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  5. Modeling the Impact of Control on the Attractiveness of Risk in a Prospect Theory Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, Diana L.; Goodie, Adam S.; Hall, Daniel B.

    2010-01-01

    Many decisions involve a degree of personal control over event outcomes, which is exerted through one’s knowledge or skill. In three experiments we investigated differences in decision making between prospects based on a) the outcome of random events and b) the outcome of events characterized by control. In Experiment 1, participants estimated certainty equivalents (CEs) for bets based on either random events or the correctness of their answers to U.S. state population questions across the probability spectrum. In Experiment 2, participants estimated CEs for bets based on random events, answers to U.S. state population questions, or answers to questions about 2007 NCAA football game results. Experiment 3 extended the same procedure as Experiment 1 using a within-subjects design. We modeled data from all experiments in a prospect theory framework to establish psychological mechanisms underlying decision behavior. Participants weighted the probabilities associated with bets characterized by control so as to reflect greater risk attractiveness relative to bets based on random events, as evidenced by more elevated weighting functions under conditions of control. This research elucidates possible cognitive mechanisms behind increased risk taking for decisions characterized by control, and implications for various literatures are discussed. PMID:21278906

  6. Modeling the Impact of Control on the Attractiveness of Risk in a Prospect Theory Framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, Diana L; Goodie, Adam S; Hall, Daniel B

    2011-01-01

    Many decisions involve a degree of personal control over event outcomes, which is exerted through one's knowledge or skill. In three experiments we investigated differences in decision making between prospects based on a) the outcome of random events and b) the outcome of events characterized by control. In Experiment 1, participants estimated certainty equivalents (CEs) for bets based on either random events or the correctness of their answers to U.S. state population questions across the probability spectrum. In Experiment 2, participants estimated CEs for bets based on random events, answers to U.S. state population questions, or answers to questions about 2007 NCAA football game results. Experiment 3 extended the same procedure as Experiment 1 using a within-subjects design. We modeled data from all experiments in a prospect theory framework to establish psychological mechanisms underlying decision behavior. Participants weighted the probabilities associated with bets characterized by control so as to reflect greater risk attractiveness relative to bets based on random events, as evidenced by more elevated weighting functions under conditions of control. This research elucidates possible cognitive mechanisms behind increased risk taking for decisions characterized by control, and implications for various literatures are discussed.

  7. THE THEORY OF EFFICIENT MARKETS AND A MODEL OF RATIONAL INVESTOR – FROM CONDITIONS OF RISK TO TERMS OF CONFLICT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krzysztof Dobrowolski

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The theoretical assumption about the informative effectiveness of financial markets is very important, although the discussion about its compatibility with the reality still re-mains open. The article summarises the key elements of the theory of efficient markets, paying particular attention to the adopted in this theory assumption about a rational inves-tor, which also appears in other models and theories related to the financial markets (such as capital asset pricing model CAPM or Markowitz Portfolio Theory. The views on the way and criteria for decision-making by a rational investor have changed over the centu-ries. Today, the dominant theory in this regard is the theory of expected utility. However, it characterizes the decision-making process under risk conditions, which are not the most common economic environment, particularly in an economy subjected to the process of globalisation. Thus, the problem of using the models of decision making under conditions of uncertainty, ignorance and terms of conflict in the efficient market theory and the theo-ry of expected utility is under consideration in the final part of the article.

  8. Combination of qualitative and quantitative sources of knowledge for risk assessment in the framework of possibility theory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oussalah, M.; Newby, M.J.

    2004-01-01

    This paper focuses on a representation of system reliability in the framework of possibility theory. Particularly, given a (probabilistic) quantitative knowledge pertaining to the time to failure of a system (risk function) and some qualitative knowledge about the degree of pessimism and optimism of

  9. An Evaluation of Financial Institutions: Impact on Consumption and Investment Using Panel Data and the Theory of Risk-Bearing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alem, Mauro; Townsend, Robert M

    2014-11-01

    The theory of the optimal allocation of risk and the Townsend Thai panel data on financial transactions are used to assess the impact of the major formal and informal financial institutions of an emerging market economy. We link financial institution assessment to the actual impact on clients, rather than ratios and non-performing loans. We derive both consumption and investment equations from a common core theory with both risk and productive activities. The empirical specification follows closely from this theory and allows both OLS and IV estimation. We thus quantify the consumption and investment smoothing impact of financial institutions on households including those running farms and small businesses. A government development bank (BAAC) is shown to be particularly helpful in smoothing consumption and investment, in no small part through credit, consistent with its own operating system, which embeds an implicit insurance operation. Commercial banks are smoothing investment, largely through formal savings accounts. Other institutions seem ineffective by these metrics.

  10. An Evaluation of Financial Institutions: Impact on Consumption and Investment Using Panel Data and the Theory of Risk-Bearing*

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alem, Mauro; Townsend, Robert M.

    2013-01-01

    The theory of the optimal allocation of risk and the Townsend Thai panel data on financial transactions are used to assess the impact of the major formal and informal financial institutions of an emerging market economy. We link financial institution assessment to the actual impact on clients, rather than ratios and non-performing loans. We derive both consumption and investment equations from a common core theory with both risk and productive activities. The empirical specification follows closely from this theory and allows both OLS and IV estimation. We thus quantify the consumption and investment smoothing impact of financial institutions on households including those running farms and small businesses. A government development bank (BAAC) is shown to be particularly helpful in smoothing consumption and investment, in no small part through credit, consistent with its own operating system, which embeds an implicit insurance operation. Commercial banks are smoothing investment, largely through formal savings accounts. Other institutions seem ineffective by these metrics. PMID:25400319

  11. The Risk-as-feelings hypothesis in a Theory-of-planned-behaviour perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Therese Kobbeltvedt

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available The Theory of Planned Behaviour (TpB: Ajzen, 1985; 1991 is based on a utility framework, and the Risk-as-Feelings hypothesis (RaF: Loewenstein, Weber, Hsee, and Welch, 2001 is a feelings-based behavioural model. The TpB and RaF are first compared and contrasted. Two empirical studies investigated the predictive power of consequence-based vs. affect-based evaluative judgements for behavioural intentions: Study 1 (extit{n} = 94 applied a regression model to examine the predictive value of a subset of shared variables, unique TpB variables, and unique RaF variables for intentions to have unsafe sex. Study 2 (extit{n} = 357 experimentally examined whether intentions are driven by consequences or feelings, in two decision vignettes with opposite qualities: A positive hedonic experience with potential negative consequences (unsafe sex vs. a negative hedonic experience with potential positive consequences (back surgery. The results supported the TpB by emphasising the role of outcome-expectations in the construction of intentions, and the RaF by showing the importance of affective subcomponents in attitudes. % Behavioural % decision models need to capture the general, the individual, and the % dynamic. The inclusion of contextual and individual trends may % facilitate behavioural predictions. % unclear

  12. Audit Manager Risk Behaviour in a Global Economy – a Research of the Theories on the Determinants of Risk Behaviour

    OpenAIRE

    Ionescu Iancu Octavian

    2010-01-01

    In an increasingly globalised economy, the quality and professionalism of business decisions are intrinsically linked to the risk behaviour of decision makers. The business decision makers are usually faced with a degree of uncertainty when they have to assess risk and make decisions. This paper examines risk behaviour from an audit firm manager perspective and from an academic perspective. The emphasis is on the managerial risk behaviour in business decision making. The research objective is...

  13. Prospect Theory and the Risks Involved in Decision-Making: Content Analysis in ProQuest Articles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sady Darcy da Silva-Junior

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available In this study, the objective is to perform content analysis on articles of a reliable database, dealing with the prospect theory and the risks involved in the decision making process, evaluating some criteria for the theoretical and methodological approaches that allow a joint analysis and comparative. Therefore, a search in ProQuest database was performed which resulted in 15 articles that were submitted to content analysis process, based on the evaluation of nine factors identified by researchers. Among the results highlight the critical attitude to the prospect theory, in contrast to the assertion of his representative capacity of real situations and application in various situations.

  14. Prospect theory and body mass: characterizing psychological parameters for weight-related risk attitudes and weight-gain aversion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Seung-Lark; Bruce, Amanda S

    2015-01-01

    We developed a novel decision-making paradigm that allows us to apply prospect theory in behavioral economics to body mass. 67 healthy young adults completed self-report measures and two decision-making tasks for weight-loss, as well as for monetary rewards. We estimated risk-related preference and loss aversion parameters for each individual, separately for weight-loss and monetary rewards choice data. Risk-seeking tendency for weight-loss was positively correlated with body mass index in individuals who desired to lose body weight, whereas the risk-seeking for momentary rewards was not. Risk-seeking for weight-loss was correlated to excessive body shape preoccupations, while aversion to weight-gain was correlated with self-reports of behavioral involvement for successful weight-loss. We demonstrated that prospect theory can be useful in explaining the decision-making process related to body mass. Applying prospect theory is expected to advance our understanding of decision-making mechanisms in obesity, which might prove helpful for improving healthy choices.

  15. Prospect theory and body mass: Characterizing psychological parameters for weight-related risk attitudes and weight-gain aversion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seung-Lark eLim

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available We developed a novel decision-making paradigm that allows us to apply prospect theory in behavioral economics to body mass. 67 healthy young adults completed self-report measures and two decision-making tasks for weight-loss, as well as for monetary rewards. We estimated risk-related preference and loss aversion parameters for each individual, separately for weight-loss and monetary rewards choice data. Risk-seeking tendency for weight-loss was positively correlated with body mass index in individuals who desired to lose body weight, whereas the risk-seeking for momentary rewards was not. Risk-seeking for weight-loss was correlated to excessive body shape preoccupations, while aversion to weight-gain was correlated with self-reports of behavioral involvement for successful weight-loss. We demonstrated that prospect theory can be useful in explaining the decision-making process related to body mass. Applying prospect theory is expected to advance our understanding of decision-making mechanisms in obesity, which might prove helpful for improving healthy choices.

  16. Real-time flood forecasts & risk assessment using a possibility-theory based fuzzy neural network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, U. T.

    2016-12-01

    Globally floods are one of the most devastating natural disasters and improved flood forecasting methods are essential for better flood protection in urban areas. Given the availability of high resolution real-time datasets for flood variables (e.g. streamflow and precipitation) in many urban areas, data-driven models have been effectively used to predict peak flow rates in river; however, the selection of input parameters for these types of models is often subjective. Additionally, the inherit uncertainty associated with data models along with errors in extreme event observations means that uncertainty quantification is essential. Addressing these concerns will enable improved flood forecasting methods and provide more accurate flood risk assessments. In this research, a new type of data-driven model, a quasi-real-time updating fuzzy neural network is developed to predict peak flow rates in urban riverine watersheds. A possibility-to-probability transformation is first used to convert observed data into fuzzy numbers. A possibility theory based training regime is them used to construct the fuzzy parameters and the outputs. A new entropy-based optimisation criterion is used to train the network. Two existing methods to select the optimum input parameters are modified to account for fuzzy number inputs, and compared. These methods are: Entropy-Wavelet-based Artificial Neural Network (EWANN) and Combined Neural Pathway Strength Analysis (CNPSA). Finally, an automated algorithm design to select the optimum structure of the neural network is implemented. The overall impact of each component of training this network is to replace the traditional ad hoc network configuration methods, with one based on objective criteria. Ten years of data from the Bow River in Calgary, Canada (including two major floods in 2005 and 2013) are used to calibrate and test the network. The EWANN method selected lagged peak flow as a candidate input, whereas the CNPSA method selected lagged

  17. Theory of Mind Impairments in Youth at Clinical High Risk of Psychosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, TianHong; Tang, YingYing; Cui, HuiRu; Lu, Xi; Xu, LiHua; Liu, XiaoHua; Li, HuiJun; Chow, Annabelle; Du, YaSong; Li, ChunBo; Jiang, KaiDa; Xiao, ZePing; Wang, JiJun

    2016-01-01

    The normal maturational processes of theory of mind (ToM) capacity are ongoing during adolescence and even early adulthood. However, research has shown that ToM ability also declines among adults suffering from prodromal psychotic experiences. The goal of this study was to investigate the characteristics of ToM performance in youth with clinical high risk (CHR) of psychosis. The Reading Mind in Eyes Task (RMET), including own-race and other-race eyes, was administered to 40 CHR youth; 42 age-, gender-, and education-matched healthy controls (HCs); and 62 adult patients with schizophrenia (SZ). Nine-month follow-up data were collected from 31 CHR subjects, of whom 7 (22.6%) had made the transition to psychosis. CHR youth showed significant impairment in RMET performance compared to HC youth but performed better than did SZ patients. Moreover, they were significantly slower than were HC youth in responding to the RMET, with a response time similar to that of SZ patients. In particular, they had significantly poorer accuracy in interpreting positive and neutral eye expressions compared to the HC group, but not in interpreting negative eye expressions. Preliminary follow-up data showed a trend toward significance (p = 0.079) for RMET performance between those who transitioned to psychosis and those who did not. Our findings illustrate that deficits in ToM capacity, specifically the ability to interpret people's mental state from eye expressions, occur early on in prodromal psychosis in youth. Early interventions for CHR youth focusing on ToM enhancement may halt progress toward psychosis.

  18. Testing ‘cultural reproduction theory’ against relative risk aversion theory – some remarks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Munk, Martin David; Jakobsen, Anders

    2015-01-01

    of the concept of habitus. Our point is that blinding out the important concept of habitus amputates the theory, and that a test built upon this limitation is not a test of Bourdieu’s theory as a whole, but rather a straw man construction ignoring important parts of the theory. This has strong implications when......The aim of this research note is to discuss inherent limitations in certain established, but problematic, conventions for operationalizing and testing Pierre Bourdieu’s theory of cultural reproduction. These conventions entail a selective focus on the concept of capital at the expense...... seeking to test statistically the viability of Bourdieu’s theory, particularly vis-a-vis rational choice alternatives, and especially where these limitations are not adequately reflected in the interpretation of results and in conclusions....

  19. Does perceived risk influence the effects of message framing? Revisiting the link between prospect theory and message framing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van 't Riet, Jonathan; Cox, Anthony D; Cox, Dena; Zimet, Gregory D; De Bruijn, Gert-Jan; Van den Putte, Bas; De Vries, Hein; Werrij, Marieke Q; Ruiter, Robert A C

    2016-12-01

    Health-promoting messages can be framed in terms of the beneficial consequences of healthy behaviour (gain-framed messages) or the detrimental consequences of unhealthy behaviour (loss-framed messages). An influential notion holds that the perceived risk associated with the recommended behaviour determines the relative persuasiveness of gain- and loss-framed messages. This 'risk-framing hypothesis', which was derived from prospect theory, has been central to health message-framing research for the better part of two decades and has enduring appeal to researchers and practitioners. It has found its way into several health communication handbooks and is communicated to the general public. The present article examines the validity of the risk-framing hypothesis anew by providing a review of the health message-framing literature. In spite of its ongoing appeal, we conclude that the hypothesis has severe theoretical flaws. In addition, we find that the empirical evidence in favour of the hypothesis is weak and inconsistent. It seems that, in applying prospect theory's tenets to a health-promotion context, some of the theory's key aspects have been lost in translation. At the close of the article, we offer a research agenda for the future, arguing that, above all, new methodology is needed to bring the message-framing literature further.

  20. Risk Assessment in the UK Health and Safety System: Theory and Practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karen Russ

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available In the UK, a person or organisation that creates risk is required to manage and control that risk so that it is reduced 'So Far As Is Reasonably Practicable' (SFAIRP. How the risk is managed is to be determined by those who create the risk. They have a duty to demonstrate that they have taken action to ensure all risk is reduced SFAIRP and must have documentary evidence, for example a risk assessment or safety case, to prove that they manage the risks their activities create. The UK Health and Safety Executive (HSE does not tell organisations how to manage the risks they create but does inspect the quality of risk identification and management. This paper gives a brief overview of where responsibility for occupational health and safety lies in the UK, and how risk should be managed through risk assessment. The focus of the paper is three recent major UK incidents, all involving fatalities, and all of which were wholly avoidable if risks had been properly assessed and managed. The paper concludes with an analysis of the common failings of risk assessments and key actions for improvement.

  1. Risk Assessment in the UK Health and Safety System: Theory and Practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russ, Karen

    2010-09-01

    In the UK, a person or organisation that creates risk is required to manage and control that risk so that it is reduced 'So Far As Is Reasonably Practicable' (SFAIRP). How the risk is managed is to be determined by those who create the risk. They have a duty to demonstrate that they have taken action to ensure all risk is reduced SFAIRP and must have documentary evidence, for example a risk assessment or safety case, to prove that they manage the risks their activities create. The UK Health and Safety Executive (HSE) does not tell organisations how to manage the risks they create but does inspect the quality of risk identification and management. This paper gives a brief overview of where responsibility for occupational health and safety lies in the UK, and how risk should be managed through risk assessment. The focus of the paper is three recent major UK incidents, all involving fatalities, and all of which were wholly avoidable if risks had been properly assessed and managed. The paper concludes with an analysis of the common failings of risk assessments and key actions for improvement.

  2. Enhancing supply risk management performance : a transaction cost and social exchange theory perspective

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoffmann, Petra; Schiele, Holger; Song, Michael

    2012-01-01

    Supply risk management gained prominence over the last decade, both in the academic discourse and in practical application. This research examines the influence of Transaction Cost characteristics -behavioral uncertainty, environmental uncertainty and asset specificity- on supply risk management

  3. Enhancing supply risk management performance: a transaction cost and social exchange theory perspective

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoffmann, Petra; Schiele, Holger; Song, Michael; Krabbendam, Johannes Jacobus

    2011-01-01

    Supply risk management gained prominence over the last decade, both in the academic discourse and in practical application. This research examines the influence of Transaction Cost characteristics -behavioral uncertainty, environmental uncertainty and asset specificity- on supply risk management

  4. Supply risk management from a transaction cost and social exchange theory perspective

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoffmann, Petra; Schiele, Holger; Song, Michael; Krabbendam, Johannes Jacobus

    2012-01-01

    Supply risk management gained prominence over the last decade, both in the academic discourse and in practical application. This research examines the influence of Transaction Cost characteristics -behavioral uncertainty, environmental uncertainty and asset specificity on supply risk management

  5. Derivative pricing with liquidity risk : Theory and evidence from the credit default swap market

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bongaerts, D.; de Jong, F.C.J.M.; Driessen, J.J.A.G.

    2011-01-01

    We derive an equilibrium asset pricing model incorporating liquidity risk, derivatives, and short-selling due to hedging of nontraded risk. We show that illiquid assets can have lower expected returns if the short-sellers have more wealth, lower risk aversion, or shorter horizon. The pricing of

  6. Bridging Two Worlds: Reconciling Practical Risk Assessment Methodologies with Theory of Attack Trees

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gadyatskaya, Olga; Harpes, Carlo; Mauw, Sjouke; Muller, Cedric; Muller, Steve

    2016-01-01

    Security risk treatment often requires a complex cost-benefit analysis to be carried out in order to select countermeasures that optimally reduce risks while having minimal costs. According to ISO/IEC 27001, risk treatment relies on catalogues of countermeasures, and the analysts are expected to

  7. Measuring Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall of crude oil portfolio using extreme value theory and vine copula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Wenhua; Yang, Kun; Wei, Yu; Lei, Likun

    2018-01-01

    Volatilities of crude oil price have important impacts on the steady and sustainable development of world real economy. Thus it is of great academic and practical significance to model and measure the volatility and risk of crude oil markets accurately. This paper aims to measure the Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) of a portfolio consists of four crude oil assets by using GARCH-type models, extreme value theory (EVT) and vine copulas. The backtesting results show that the combination of GARCH-type-EVT models and vine copula methods can produce accurate risk measures of the oil portfolio. Mixed R-vine copula is more flexible and superior to other vine copulas. Different GARCH-type models, which can depict the long-memory and/or leverage effect of oil price volatilities, however offer similar marginal distributions of the oil returns.

  8. Evidence Theory Based Uncertainty Quantification in Radiological Risk due to Accidental Release of Radioactivity from a Nuclear Power Plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ingale, S. V.; Datta, D.

    2010-01-01

    Consequence of the accidental release of radioactivity from a nuclear power plant is assessed in terms of exposure or dose to the members of the public. Assessment of risk is routed through this dose computation. Dose computation basically depends on the basic dose assessment model and exposure pathways. One of the exposure pathways is the ingestion of contaminated food. The aim of the present paper is to compute the uncertainty associated with the risk to the members of the public due to the ingestion of contaminated food. The governing parameters of the ingestion dose assessment model being imprecise, we have approached evidence theory to compute the bound of the risk. The uncertainty is addressed by the belief and plausibility fuzzy measures.

  9. A dynamic approach merging network theory and credit risk techniques to assess systemic risk in financial networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petrone, Daniele; Latora, Vito

    2018-04-03

    The interconnectedness of financial institutions affects instability and credit crises. To quantify systemic risk we introduce here the PD model, a dynamic model that combines credit risk techniques with a contagion mechanism on the network of exposures among banks. A potential loss distribution is obtained through a multi-period Monte Carlo simulation that considers the probability of default (PD) of the banks and their tendency of defaulting in the same time interval. A contagion process increases the PD of banks exposed toward distressed counterparties. The systemic risk is measured by statistics of the loss distribution, while the contribution of each node is quantified by the new measures PDRank and PDImpact. We illustrate how the model works on the network of the European Global Systemically Important Banks. For a certain range of the banks' capital and of their assets volatility, our results reveal the emergence of a strong contagion regime where lower default correlation between banks corresponds to higher losses. This is the opposite of the diversification benefits postulated by standard credit risk models used by banks and regulators who could therefore underestimate the capital needed to overcome a period of crisis, thereby contributing to the financial system instability.

  10. Combination of uncertainty theories and decision-aiding methods for natural risk management in a context of imperfect information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tacnet, Jean-Marc; Dupouy, Guillaume; Carladous, Simon; Dezert, Jean; Batton-Hubert, Mireille

    2017-04-01

    In mountain areas, natural phenomena such as snow avalanches, debris-flows and rock-falls, put people and objects at risk with sometimes dramatic consequences. Risk is classically considered as a combination of hazard, the combination of the intensity and frequency of the phenomenon, and vulnerability which corresponds to the consequences of the phenomenon on exposed people and material assets. Risk management consists in identifying the risk level as well as choosing the best strategies for risk prevention, i.e. mitigation. In the context of natural phenomena in mountainous areas, technical and scientific knowledge is often lacking. Risk management decisions are therefore based on imperfect information. This information comes from more or less reliable sources ranging from historical data, expert assessments, numerical simulations etc. Finally, risk management decisions are the result of complex knowledge management and reasoning processes. Tracing the information and propagating information quality from data acquisition to decisions are therefore important steps in the decision-making process. One major goal today is therefore to assist decision-making while considering the availability, quality and reliability of information content and sources. A global integrated framework is proposed to improve the risk management process in a context of information imperfection provided by more or less reliable sources: uncertainty as well as imprecision, inconsistency and incompleteness are considered. Several methods are used and associated in an original way: sequential decision context description, development of specific multi-criteria decision-making methods, imperfection propagation in numerical modeling and information fusion. This framework not only assists in decision-making but also traces the process and evaluates the impact of information quality on decision-making. We focus and present two main developments. The first one relates to uncertainty and imprecision

  11. Theory-Based Analysis of Interest in an HIV Vaccine for Reasons Indicative of Risk Compensation Among African American Women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Painter, Julia E; Temple, Brandie S; Woods, Laura A; Cwiak, Carrie; Haddad, Lisa B; Mulligan, Mark J; DiClemente, Ralph J

    2018-06-01

    Licensure of an HIV vaccine could reduce or eliminate HIV among vulnerable populations. However, vaccine effectiveness could be undermined by risk compensation (RC), defined by an increase in risky behavior due to a belief that the vaccine will confer protection. Interest in an HIV vaccine for reasons indicative of RC may serve as an indicator of actual RC in a postlicensure era. This study assessed factors associated with interest in an HIV vaccine for reasons indicative of RC among African American women aged 18 to 55 years, recruited from a hospital-based family planning clinic in Atlanta, Georgia ( N = 321). Data were collected using audio-computer-assisted surveys. Survey items were guided by risk homeostasis theory and social cognitive theory. Multivariable logistic regression was used to assess determinants of interest in an HIV vaccine for reasons indicative of RC. Thirty-eight percent of the sample expressed interest in an HIV vaccine for at least one reason indicative of RC. In the final model, interest in an HIV vaccine for reasons indicative of RC was positively associated with higher impulsivity, perceived benefits of sexual risk behaviors, and perceived benefits of HIV vaccination; it was negatively associated with having at least some college education, positive future orientation, and self-efficacy for sex refusal. Results suggest that demographic, personality, and theory-based psychosocial factors are salient to wanting an HIV vaccine for reasons indicative of RC, and underscore the need for risk-reduction counseling alongside vaccination during the eventual rollout of an HIV vaccine.

  12. COMPARISON OF TRENDS IN RISK MANAGEMENT THEORY AND PRACTICES WITHIN THE CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY

    OpenAIRE

    Dena Crnković; Mladen Vukomanović

    2016-01-01

    This study considered the problem of understanding and use of risk management methods in construction projects and their representation in the literature and their practical application. Research of trends in risk management was conducted using studies from the EBSCO database that were published in the period from 1999 to 2015. The focus included the development of two terms, namely traditional and holistic approach to risk management as well as to uncertainty and opportunity management. The ...

  13. Operational Risk Measurement of Chinese Commercial Banks Based on Extreme Value Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Jiashan; Li, Yong; Ji, Feng; Peng, Cheng

    The financial institutions and supervision institutions have all agreed on strengthening the measurement and management of operational risks. This paper attempts to build a model on the loss of operational risks basing on Peak Over Threshold model, emphasizing on weighted least square, which improved Hill’s estimation method, while discussing the situation of small sample, and fix the sample threshold more objectively basing on the media-published data of primary banks loss on operational risk from 1994 to 2007.

  14. Sexual transmission-risk behaviour among HIV-positive persons: a multisite study using social action theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sullivan, Kathleen M; Dawson Rose, Carol; Phillips, J Craig; Holzemer, William L; Webel, Allison R; Nicholas, Patrice; Corless, Inge B; Kirksey, Kenn; Sanzero Eller, Lucille; Voss, Joachim; Tyer-Viola, Lynda; Portillo, Carmen; Johnson, Mallory O; Brion, John; Sefcik, Elizabeth; Nokes, Kathleen; Reid, Paula; Rivero-Mendez, Marta; Chen, Wei-Ti

    2017-01-01

    Sexual risk behaviour was explored and described using Social Action Theory. The sexual transmission of HIV is complex and multi-factorial. Social Action Theory provides a framework for viewing self-regulation of modifiable behaviour such as condom use. Condom use is viewed within the context of social interaction and interdependence. Cross-sectional survey. Self-report questionnaire administered to adults living with HIV/AIDS, recruited from clinics, service organizations and by active outreach, between 2010 - 2011. Having multiple sex partners with inconsistent condom use during a 3-month recall period was associated with being male, younger age, having more years of education,substance use frequency and men having sex with men being a mode of acquiring HIV. In addition, lower self-efficacy for condom use scores were associated with having multiple sex partners and inconsistent condom use. Social Action Theory provided a framework for organizing data from an international sample of seropositive persons. Interventions for sexually active, younger, HIV positive men who have sex with men, that strengthen perceived efficacy for condom use, and reduce the frequency of substance use, may contribute to reducing HIV-transmission risk. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  15. Risk and reliability analysis theory and applications : in honor of Prof. Armen Der Kiureghian

    CERN Document Server

    2017-01-01

    This book presents a unique collection of contributions from some of the foremost scholars in the field of risk and reliability analysis. Combining the most advanced analysis techniques with practical applications, it is one of the most comprehensive and up-to-date books available on risk-based engineering. All the fundamental concepts needed to conduct risk and reliability assessments are covered in detail, providing readers with a sound understanding of the field and making the book a powerful tool for students and researchers alike. This book was prepared in honor of Professor Armen Der Kiureghian, one of the fathers of modern risk and reliability analysis.

  16. Decision-making under risk. An overview of some alternative utility theories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pauwels, N.; Van Woensel, T.

    1998-09-01

    Decision-makers often have to take decisions with unknown consequences that depend on various events which on their turn can take place a certain chance. Under the given circumstances, the traditional decision criterion is based on the maximisation of the expected benefits. Experimental studies have however revealed important inconsistencies between decisions taken on the basis of this decision criterion on the one hand and the observed decisions on the other hand. The report gives an overview of a number of alternative theories extending or adapting the traditional theory in view of avoiding the observed inconsistencies

  17. BEHAVIORAL DECISION-THEORY AND ENVIRONMENTAL RISK MANAGEMENT - ASSESSMENT AND RESOLUTION OF 4 SURVIVAL DILEMMAS

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    VLEK, C; KEREN, G

    Environmental degradation and the call for 'sustainable development' provide an extended context and new challenges for decision-theoretic research on risk assessment and management. We characterize environmental risk management as the resolution of four different types of 'survival' dilemmas in

  18. Who Should I Share Risk with? Gifts can tell : Theory and Evidence from Rural China

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wang, Ruixin

    2016-01-01

    This paper studies how gift exchange may help to overcome limited commitment problem in risk sharing. When efficient contract enforcement is lacking, people rely on friends (or relatives) to share risk since emotional or moral cost of defaulting between friends can help to prevent moral hazard. The

  19. A Risk and Prevention Counselor Training Program Model: Theory and Practice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mason, Michael J.; Nakkula, Michael J.

    2008-01-01

    The need for training mental health counselors in risk and prevention is presented, and justification of the development of an innovative and integrative prevention training program is offered. Theoretical underpinnings that connect the counseling discipline to the field of prevention are described. A risk and prevention training model from…

  20. The Theory-based Influence of Map Features on Risk Beliefs: Self-reports of What is Seen and Understood for Maps Depicting an Environmental Health Hazard

    OpenAIRE

    Severtson, Dolores J.; Vatovec, Christine

    2012-01-01

    Theory-based research is needed to understand how maps of environmental health risk information influence risk beliefs and protective behavior. Using theoretical concepts from multiple fields of study including visual cognition, semiotics, health behavior, and learning and memory supports a comprehensive assessment of this influence. We report results from thirteen cognitive interviews that provide theory-based insights into how visual features influenced what participants saw ...

  1. Assurance en Risk Appetite : Een botsing tussen theorie en praktijk die veel energie oplevert

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    dr. A.F. de Wild

    2015-01-01

    Presentatie over Risk Appetite: een belangrijk onderdeel van het risicomanagementsysteem. Gegeven aan de Erasmus School of Accounting and Assurance op 10 april 2015 door dr. Arie F. de Wild, lector Gedragseconomie bij Kenniscentrum Innovatief Ondernemerschap van Hogeschool Rotterdam.

  2. Life history theory and breast cancer risk: methodological and theoretical challenges: Response to "Is estrogen receptor negative breast cancer risk associated with a fast life history strategy?".

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aktipis, Athena

    2016-01-01

    In a meta-analysis published by myself and co-authors, we report differences in the life history risk factors for estrogen receptor negative (ER-) and estrogen receptor positive (ER+) breast cancers. Our meta-analysis did not find the association of ER- breast cancer risk with fast life history characteristics that Hidaka and Boddy suggest in their response to our article. There are a number of possible explanations for the differences between their conclusions and the conclusions we drew from our meta-analysis, including limitations of our meta-analysis and methodological challenges in measuring and categorizing estrogen receptor status. These challenges, along with the association of ER+ breast cancer with slow life history characteristics, may make it challenging to find a clear signal of ER- breast cancer with fast life history characteristics, even if that relationship does exist. The contradictory results regarding breast cancer risk and life history characteristics illustrate a more general challenge in evolutionary medicine: often different sub-theories in evolutionary biology make contradictory predictions about disease risk. In this case, life history models predict that breast cancer risk should increase with faster life history characteristics, while the evolutionary mismatch hypothesis predicts that breast cancer risk should increase with delayed reproduction. Whether life history tradeoffs contribute to ER- breast cancer is still an open question, but current models and several lines of evidence suggest that it is a possibility. © The Author(s) 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Foundation for Evolution, Medicine, and Public Health.

  3. Estimation of the value-at-risk parameter: Econometric analysis and the extreme value theory approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mladenović Zorica

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper different aspects of value-at-risk estimation are considered. Daily returns of CISCO, INTEL and NASDAQ stock indices are analyzed for period: September 1996 - September 2006. Methods that incorporate time varying variability and heavy tails of the empirical distributions of returns are implemented. The main finding of the paper is that standard econometric methods underestimate the value-at-risk parameter if heavy tails of the empirical distribution are not explicitly taken into account. .

  4. THEORY AND PRACTICE OF INDIVIDUAL SNOW AVALANCHE RISK ASSESSMENT IN THE RUSSIAN ARCTIC

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aleksandr Shnyparkov

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, the Government of the Russian Federation considerably increased attention to the exploitation of the Russian Arctic territories. Simultaneously, the evaluation of snow avalanches danger was enhanced with the aim to decrease fatalities and reduce economic losses. However, it turned out that solely reporting the degree of avalanche danger is not sufficient. Instead, quantitative information on probabilistic parameters of natural hazards, the characteristics of their effects on the environment and possibly resulting losses is increasingly needed. Such information allows for the estimation of risk, including risk related to snow avalanches. Here, snow avalanche risk is quantified for the Khibiny Mountains, one of the most industrialized parts of the Russian Arctic: Major parts of the territory have an acceptable degree of individual snow avalanche risk (<1×10-6. The territories with an admissible (10-4–10-6 or unacceptable (>1×10-4 degree of individual snow avalanche risk (0.5 and 2% of the total area correspond to the Southeast of the Khibiny Mountains where settlements and mining industries are situated. Moreover, due to an increase in winter tourism, some traffic infrastructure is located in valleys with an admissible or unacceptable degree of individual snow avalanches risk.

  5. COMPARISON OF TRENDS IN RISK MANAGEMENT THEORY AND PRACTICES WITHIN THE CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dena Crnković

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This study considered the problem of understanding and use of risk management methods in construction projects and their representation in the literature and their practical application. Research of trends in risk management was conducted using studies from the EBSCO database that were published in the period from 1999 to 2015. The focus included the development of two terms, namely traditional and holistic approach to risk management as well as to uncertainty and opportunity management. The trend of leading standards in the field of project management, PMBoK and ISO 31000 indicated full support for the modernization of risk management that focused on the risks as well as potential opportunities in the project. The findings also revealed that the global practices continued to lack awareness of risk management and its benefits for project goals. A similar situation was found in Croatia by observing project management practices in two case studies, namely Project Zagrebačka obala in Rijeka and a Project of SEECEL Zagreb. Primarily, the lack of education and communication between experts are important issues requiring attention in practice and academics. It is necessary to gradually introduce standards over time to prepare for progress in managing uncertainties and adopting more holistic approaches.

  6. Risk assessment of security systems based on entropy theory and the Neyman–Pearson criterion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lv, Haitao; Yin, Chao; Cui, Zongmin; Zhan, Qin; Zhou, Hongbo

    2015-01-01

    For a security system, the risk assessment is an important method to verdict whether its protection effectiveness is good or not. In this paper, a security system is regarded abstractly as a network by the name of a security network. A security network is made up of security nodes that are abstract functional units with the ability of detecting, delaying and responding. By the use of risk entropy and the Neyman–Pearson criterion, we construct a model to computer the protection probability of any position in the area where a security network is deployed. We provide a solution to find the most vulnerable path of a security network and the protection probability on the path is considered as the risk measure. Finally, we study the effect of some parameters on the risk and the breach protection probability of a security network. Ultimately, we can gain insight about the risk assessment of a security system. - Highlights: • A security system is regarded abstractly as a network made up of security nodes. • We construct a model to computer the protection probability provided by a security network. • We provide a better solution to find the most vulnerable path of a security network. • We build a risk assessment model for a security network based on the most vulnerable path

  7. Credit Monitoring – a Core of Credit Risk Management: Theory and Experience

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daiva Jurevičienė

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Purpose of the article: Purpose of the article is to identify credit monitoring as a keystone of credit risk management in banks. CRM is widely discussed in scientific literature and in reports of institutions undertaking credit risk or supervisory bodies. However majority of such investigations are based on implementation of numerous quantitative or qualitative methods used for credit risk assessment before granting a loan or for credit portfolio risk management. There is a lack of information or investigations made on estimation of the need of credit monitoring in credit risk management process. Scientific aim: Scientific aim is to structure the early warning signs that reflect the condition of credits. Methodology/methods: The paper is based on analysis and resumption of various scientific and professional articles related to organization of credit process in banks. It combines results of assessments of credit monitoring importance in credit risk management process made by theoretical studies as well as investigation of experts. Findings: Finding of the article is presentation of credit monitoring tools that should be applied for corporate (and individual clients via modification of original credit agreement. Conclusions: (limits, implications etc Conclusion of the article is that credit monitoring is a keystone in credit risk management process. The purpose of credit monitoring is to detect in time possible worsening of the loan and to react (make changes in loan agreement. The simplest tool for credit monitoring is to identify early warning signs in time that could be assorted into four groups: EWS of business environment; EWS with regard to management, EWS regarding collateral, EWS in financial analysis. Limitation of investigation is impossibility of evaluation of importance of monitoring process in practice except investigation of experts (employees directly responsible for credit business.

  8. Actuarial Evaluation of Pension Risks of Russia: from Theory to Practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aleksandr Anatolyevich Kuklin

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The article discusses the origins of the development of pension systems in the world, shows the causes of the emergence of various models of public pension provision. We pay a particular attention to the history of the formation of the Russian pension system, and analyse the stages and causes of modern reform. From the position of modern legislation, we systemise the forms, types of pension provision and pension insurance in the Russian Federation from the point of view of the sources of financing and subjects of pension relations. The authors have defined the concept of “actuarial evaluation” from the point of view of the process and system approach. We have revealed the content of the pension risk category, as well as classified the pension risks by the spheres of origin. The authors have developed the methodology of actuarial estimation of the risks of the pension system classified by different criteria: demographic, economic, financial, labor risks. The proposed methodological approach to the evaluation of pension risks is based on the comprehensive assessment of socio-economic indicators and the identification of dependencies between socio-demographic and economic processes in the pension system and economy of the country. The authors have tested the developed tools on the actuarial estimation of the pension risks of the Russian Federation. The article presents the results of calculations and identifies critical risks for the Russian pension system. We have proved that stagnation processes in the economy and a high share of the shadow economy represent the greatest threat to the Russian pension system in the short term, whereas, the aging of the population and the increase in life expectancy — in the long term.

  9. Risk aversion, time preference and health production: theory and empirical evidence from Cambodia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rieger, Matthias

    2015-04-01

    This paper quantifies the relationship between risk aversion and discount rates on the one hand and height and weight on the other. It studies this link in the context of poor households in Cambodia. Evidence is based on an original dataset that contains both experimental measures of risk taking and impatience along with anthropometric measurements of children and adults. The aim of the paper is to (i) explore the importance of risk and time preferences in explaining undernutrition and (ii) compare the evidence stemming from poor households to strikingly similar findings from industrialized countries. It uses an inter-generational approach to explain observed correlations in adults and children that is inspired by the height premium on labor markets. Parents can invest in the health capital of their child to increase future earnings and their consumption when old: better nutrition during infancy translates into better human capital and better wages, and ultimately better financial means to take care of elderly parents. However this investment is subject to considerable uncertainty, since parents neither perfectly foresee economic conditions when the child starts earning nor fully observe the ability to transform nutritional investments into long-term health capital. As a result, risk taking households have taller and heavier children. Conversely, impatience does not affect child health. In the case of adults, only weight and the body mass index (BMI), but not height, are positively and moderately correlated with risk taking and impatience. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Lead-lag relationships between stock and market risk within linear response theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borysov, Stanislav; Balatsky, Alexander

    2015-03-01

    We study historical correlations and lead-lag relationships between individual stock risks (standard deviation of daily stock returns) and market risk (standard deviation of daily returns of a market-representative portfolio) in the US stock market. We consider the cross-correlation functions averaged over stocks, using historical stock prices from the Standard & Poor's 500 index for 1994-2013. The observed historical dynamics suggests that the dependence between the risks was almost linear during the US stock market downturn of 2002 and after the US housing bubble in 2007, remaining at that level until 2013. Moreover, the averaged cross-correlation function often had an asymmetric shape with respect to zero lag in the periods of high correlation. We develop the analysis by the application of the linear response formalism to study underlying causal relations. The calculated response functions suggest the presence of characteristic regimes near financial crashes, when individual stock risks affect market risk and vice versa. This work was supported by VR 621-2012-2983.

  11. Identifying beliefs underlying pre-drivers' intentions to take risks: An application of the Theory of Planned Behaviour.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rowe, Richard; Andrews, Elizabeth; Harris, Peter R; Armitage, Christopher J; McKenna, Frank P; Norman, Paul

    2016-04-01

    Novice motorists are at high crash risk during the first few months of driving. Risky behaviours such as speeding and driving while distracted are well-documented contributors to crash risk during this period. To reduce this public health burden, effective road safety interventions need to target the pre-driving period. We use the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) to identify the pre-driver beliefs underlying intentions to drive over the speed limit (N=77), and while over the legal alcohol limit (N=72), talking on a hand-held mobile phone (N=77) and feeling very tired (N=68). The TPB explained between 41% and 69% of the variance in intentions to perform these behaviours. Attitudes were strong predictors of intentions for all behaviours. Subjective norms and perceived behavioural control were significant, though weaker, independent predictors of speeding and mobile phone use. Behavioural beliefs underlying these attitudes could be separated into those reflecting perceived disadvantages (e.g., speeding increases my risk of crash) and advantages (e.g., speeding gives me a thrill). Interventions that can make these beliefs safer in pre-drivers may reduce crash risk once independent driving has begun. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Optimal investment and location decisions of a firm in a flood risk area using Impulse Control Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grames, Johanna; Grass, Dieter; Kort, Peter; Prskawetz, Alexia

    2017-04-01

    Flooding events can affect businesses close to rivers, lakes or coasts. This paper provides a partial equilibrium model which helps to understand the optimal location choice for a firm in flood risk areas and its investment strategies. How often, when and how much are firms willing to invest in flood risk protection measures? We apply Impulse Control Theory to solve the model analytically and develop a continuation algorithm to solve the model numerically. Firms always invest in flood defense. The investment increases the higher the flood risk and the more firms also value the future, i.e. the more sustainable they plan. Investments in production capital follow a similar path. Hence, planning in a sustainable way leads to economic growth. Sociohydrological feedbacks are crucial for the location choice of the firm, whereas different economic situations have an impact on investment strategies. If flood defense is already present, e.g. built up by the government, firms move closer to the water and invest less in flood defense, which allows firms to accrue higher expected profits. Firms with a large initial production capital surprisingly try not to keep their market advantage, but rather reduce flood risk by reducing exposed production capital.

  13. The limits of behaviour change theory: condom use and contexts of HIV risk in the Kolkata sex industry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Catrin; Lambert, Helen

    2008-01-01

    This paper uses ethnographic data from a sex workers' HIV project in India to consider the appropriateness of individual, social/group and structural theories of health behaviour when applied to HIV-prevention initiatives. Existing theories are critiqued for their modernist representation of behaviour as determined by individual rational decision-making processes or by external structural forces, with inadequate recognition being given to the roles that human agency, subjective meaning and local context play in everyday actions. Analysis of sex workers' accounts of their sexual practices suggests that existing theories of health behaviour can only partially account for sexual behaviour change retrospectively and that they have limited predictive value with respect to the outcomes of individual sexual encounters. Our data show that these outcomes were, in fact, highly context dependent, while possibilities for action were ultimately strongly constrained by structural forces. Findings suggest that interventions need to adopt an integrated, structurally-oriented approach for promoting safer sexual practices in sex work settings. Recognising that no one model of health behaviour is likely to be adequate in explaining or predicting behaviour change encourages responsiveness to local people's agency, recognises the different (health- and non-health-related) registers of risk with which people operate and encourages flexibility according to local contingencies and contexts.

  14. Suicide Risk across Latent Class Subgroups: A Test of the Generalizability of the Interpersonal Psychological Theory of Suicide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Jennifer S; Batterham, Philip J; Calear, Alison L; Han, Jin

    2018-01-06

    It remains unclear whether the Interpersonal Psychological Theory of Suicide (IPTS; Joiner, ) is generalizable to the population or holds more explanatory power for certain subgroups compared to others. The aim of this study was to (1) identify subgroups of individuals who endorsed suicide ideation in the past month based on a range of mental health and demographic variables, (2) compare levels of the IPTS constructs within these subgroups, and (3) test the IPTS predictions for suicide ideation and suicide attempt for each group. Latent class, negative binomial, linear, and logistic regression analyses were conducted on population-based data obtained from 1,321 adults recruited from Facebook. Among participants reporting suicide ideation, four distinct patterns of risk factors emerged based on age and severity of mental health symptoms. Groups with highly elevated mental health symptoms reported the highest levels of thwarted belongingness and perceived burdensomeness. Tests of the IPTS interactions provided partial support for the theory, primarily in young adults with elevated mental health symptoms. Lack of support found for the IPTS predictions across the subgroups and full sample in this study raise some questions around the broad applicability of the theory. © 2018 The American Association of Suicidology.

  15. Combining Reference Class Forecasting with Overconfidence Theory for Better Risk Assessment of Transport Infrastructure Investments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Leleur, Steen; Salling, Kim Bang; Pilkauskiene, Inga

    2015-01-01

    investments. In the last decade progress has been made by dealing with this situation known as planners’ optimism bias. Especially attention can be drawn to the use of reference class forecasting that has led to adjustment factors that, when used on the estimates of costs and demand, lead to cost......-benefit analysis results that are modified by taking historical risk experience into account. This article seeks to add to this progress in risk assessment methodology in two ways: first it suggests to apply reference class forecasting (RCF) in a flexible way where the effort is focused on formulating the best...

  16. Intentions to Participate in Counselling among Front-Line, At-Risk Irish Government Employees: An Application of the Theory of Planned Behaviour

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hyland, Philip E.; McLaughlin, Christopher G.; Boduszek, Daniel; Prentice, Garry R.

    2012-01-01

    The study set out to examine intentions to engage in counselling among at-risk Irish government employees and the differential utility of two alternative theory of planned behaviour (TPB) models of behaviour to explain intentions to participate in counselling. Individuals (N = 259) employed in a front-line, at-risk occupation for the Irish…

  17. Stewardship and risk: An empirically grounded theory of organic fish farming in Scotland

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Georgakopoulos, G.; Ciancanelli, P.; Coulson, A.; Kaldis, P.E.

    2008-01-01

    It has long been assumed ownership gives farmers incentives to act as stewards of the land. On this basis, quasi-property rights are granted to fish farmers to encourage them to manage risks to the aquatic environment. This paper offers an empirically grounded theorisation of fish farmers’

  18. Derivative pricing with liquidity risk: Theory and evidence from the credit default swap market

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bongaerts, D.; de Jong, F.; Driessen, J.

    2008-01-01

    We derive a theoretical asset-pricing model for derivative contracts that allows for expected liquidity and liquidity risk, and estimate this model for the market of credit default swaps (CDS). Our model extends the LCAPM of Acharya and Pedersen (2005) to a setting with derivative instruments and

  19. Press freedom, oil exports, and risk for natural disasters: a challenge for climato-economic theory?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arantes, Joana; Grace, Randolph C; Kemp, Simon

    2013-10-01

    Does the interaction between climactic demands, monetary resources, and freedom suggest a more general relationship between the environmental challenges that human societies face and their resources to meet those challenges? Using data on press freedom (Van de Vliert 2011a), we found no evidence of a similar interaction with natural resources (as measured by oil exports) or risk for natural disasters.

  20. Education for disaster risk reduction : linking theory with practice in Ghana´s basic schools

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Apronti, Priscilla; Saito, Osamu; Otsuki, K.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/306279258; Kranjac-Berisavljevic, Gordana

    2015-01-01

    Current understanding of disaster risk reduction (DRR) concurs that, when provided the right education, children have the potential to reduce their own vulnerability and the vulnerability of others in their community. What, then, comprises the right education for DRR? Research has established the

  1. Risk Aversion and Effort in an Incentive Pay Scheme with Multiplicative Noise: Theory and Experimental Evidence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    N.V. Zubanov (Nick)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractThe application of the classical "linear" model of incentive pay to the case when the noise is multiplicative to effort generates two predictions for a given strength of incentives: 1) more risk-averse workers will put in less effort, and 2) setting a performance target will weaken the

  2. Quantitative microbiological risk assessment in food industry: Theory and practical application.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Membré, Jeanne-Marie; Boué, Géraldine

    2018-04-01

    The objective of this article is to bring scientific background as well as practical hints and tips to guide risk assessors and modelers who want to develop a quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) in an industrial context. MRA aims at determining the public health risk associated with biological hazards in a food. Its implementation in industry enables to compare the efficiency of different risk reduction measures, and more precisely different operational settings, by predicting their effect on the final model output. The first stage in MRA is to clearly define the purpose and scope with stakeholders, risk assessors and modelers. Then, a probabilistic model is developed; this includes schematically three important phases. Firstly, the model structure has to be defined, i.e. the connections between different operational processing steps. An important step in food industry is the thermal processing leading to microbial inactivation. Growth of heat-treated surviving microorganisms and/or post-process contamination during storage phase is also important to take into account. Secondly, mathematical equations are determined to estimate the change of microbial load after each processing step. This phase includes the construction of model inputs by collecting data or eliciting experts. Finally, the model outputs are obtained by simulation procedures, they have to be interpreted and communicated to targeted stakeholders. In this latter phase, tools such as what-if scenarios provide an essential added value. These different MRA phases are illustrated through two examples covering important issues in industry. The first one covers process optimization in a food safety context, the second one covers shelf-life determination in a food quality context. Although both contexts required the same methodology, they do not have the same endpoint: up to the human health in the foie gras case-study illustrating here a safety application, up to the food portion in the

  3. Risk of co-occuring psychopathology: testing a prediction of expectancy theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capron, Daniel W; Norr, Aaron M; Schmidt, Norman B

    2013-01-01

    Despite the high impact of anxiety sensitivity (AS; a fear of anxiety related sensations) research, almost no research attention has been paid to its parent theory, Reiss' expectancy theory (ET). ET has gone largely unexamined to this point, including the prediction that AS is a better predictor of number of fears than current anxiety. To test Reiss' prediction, we used a large (N = 317) clinical sample of anxiety outpatients. Specifically, we examined whether elevated AS predicted number of comorbid anxiety and non-anxiety disorder diagnoses in this sample. Consistent with ET, findings indicated that AS predicted number of comorbid anxiety disorder diagnoses above and beyond current anxiety symptoms. Also, AS did not predict the number of comorbid non-anxiety diagnoses when current anxiety symptoms were accounted for. These findings represent an important examination of a prediction of Reiss' ET and are consistent with the idea that AS may be a useful transdiagnostic treatment target. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Design of emergency plans due to the failure risk of hydraulic works - Theory and case study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ochoa Rivera, Juan Camilo

    2006-01-01

    Dams are built to be highly safe hydraulic works. Nevertheless, they are not exempt from a certain failure risk, which turns in a variable value along the time service of the dam. As the mentioned dam-failure risk can be a significant hazard, analysis on dam-break is becoming important, as same as the assessment of its consequences. This type of studies are intended to reduce the costs linked to dam-failure, which are mainly due to the losses of human beings and material goods. A suitable way to minimize such losses consists of designing emergency plans, which permit to prepare and implant appropriate protection measures. A methodological framework to carry out this kind of emergency plans is introduced in this paper, accompanied by a case study corresponding to an emergency plan of a Spanish dam

  5. Risk Oriented Audit Methodology’s Improvement, based on the Fraud Theory

    OpenAIRE

    Sergei V. Arzhenovskii; Andrei V. Bakhteev; Anastasiya V. Nalivaichenko

    2016-01-01

    Modern economic development is accompanied by the increasing complexity of the relationship structure, intercompany transactions, the requirements for information disclosure on the entity’s activities. It leads to the opportunities growth of fraudulent representation public companies reporting. The external audit is considered as an institution that resists to negative processes. The issues of improving the tools that assessing the risk of material misstatement of the financial statements due...

  6. Analysis of algal bloom risk with uncertainties in lakes by integrating self-organizing map and fuzzy information theory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, Qiuwen, E-mail: qchen@rcees.ac.cn [RCEES, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shuangqinglu 18, Beijing 10085 (China); China Three Gorges University, Daxuelu 8, Yichang 443002 (China); CEER, Nanjing Hydraulics Research Institute, Guangzhoulu 223, Nanjing 210029 (China); Rui, Han; Li, Weifeng; Zhang, Yanhui [RCEES, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shuangqinglu 18, Beijing 10085 (China)

    2014-06-01

    Algal blooms are a serious problem in waters, which damage aquatic ecosystems and threaten drinking water safety. However, the outbreak mechanism of algal blooms is very complex with great uncertainty, especially for large water bodies where environmental conditions have obvious variation in both space and time. This study developed an innovative method which integrated a self-organizing map (SOM) and fuzzy information diffusion theory to comprehensively analyze algal bloom risks with uncertainties. The Lake Taihu was taken as study case and the long-term (2004–2010) on-site monitoring data were used. The results showed that algal blooms in Taihu Lake were classified into four categories and exhibited obvious spatial–temporal patterns. The lake was mainly characterized by moderate bloom but had high uncertainty, whereas severe blooms with low uncertainty were observed in the northwest part of the lake. The study gives insight on the spatial–temporal dynamics of algal blooms, and should help government and decision-makers outline policies and practices on bloom monitoring and prevention. The developed method provides a promising approach to estimate algal bloom risks under uncertainties. - Highlights: • An innovative method is developed to analyze algal bloom risks with uncertainties. • The algal blooms in Taihu Lake showed obvious spatial and temporal patterns. • The lake is mainly characterized as moderate bloom but with high uncertainty. • Severe bloom with low uncertainty appeared occasionally in the northwest part. • The results provide important information to bloom monitoring and management.

  7. Human disease mortality kinetics are explored through a chain model embodying principles of extreme value theory and competing risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juckett, D A; Rosenberg, B

    1992-04-21

    The distributions for human disease-specific mortality exhibit two striking characteristics: survivorship curves that intersect near the longevity limit; and, the clustering of best-fitting Weibull shape parameter values into groups centered on integers. Correspondingly, we have hypothesized that the distribution intersections result from either competitive processes or population partitioning and the integral clustering in the shape parameter results from the occurrence of a small number of rare, rate-limiting events in disease progression. In this report we initiate a theoretical examination of these questions by exploring serial chain model dynamics and parameteric competing risks theory. The links in our chain models are composed of more than one bond, where the number of bonds in a link are denoted the link size and are the number of events necessary to break the link and, hence, the chain. We explored chains with all links of the same size or with segments of the chain composed of different size links (competition). Simulations showed that chain breakage dynamics depended on the weakest-link principle and followed kinetics of extreme-values which were very similar to human mortality kinetics. In particular, failure distributions for simple chains were Weibull-type extreme-value distributions with shape parameter values that were identifiable with the integral link size in the limit of infinite chain length. Furthermore, for chains composed of several segments of differing link size, the survival distributions for the various segments converged at a point in the S(t) tails indistinguishable from human data. This was also predicted by parameteric competing risks theory using Weibull underlying distributions. In both the competitive chain simulations and the parametric competing risks theory, however, the shape values for the intersecting distributions deviated from the integer values typical of human data. We conclude that rare events can be the source of

  8. Multi-objective portfolio optimization of mutual funds under downside risk measure using fuzzy theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Amiri

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Mutual fund is one of the most popular techniques for many people to invest their funds where a professional fund manager invests people's funds based on some special predefined objectives; therefore, performance evaluation of mutual funds is an important problem. This paper proposes a multi-objective portfolio optimization to offer asset allocation. The proposed model clusters mutual funds with two methods based on six characteristics including rate of return, variance, semivariance, turnover rate, Treynor index and Sharpe index. Semivariance is used as a downside risk measure. The proposed model of this paper uses fuzzy variables for return rate and semivariance. A multi-objective fuzzy mean-semivariance portfolio optimization model is implemented and fuzzy programming technique is adopted to solve the resulted problem. The proposed model of this paper has gathered the information of mutual fund traded on Nasdaq from 2007 to 2009 and Pareto optimal solutions are obtained considering different weights for objective functions. The results of asset allocation, rate of return and risk of each cluster are also determined and they are compared with the results of two clustering methods.

  9. A conditional extreme value theory approach in value-at-risk forecasting: Evidence from Southeastern Europe and USA market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Totić Selena

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available As a consequence of the recent financial crisis, the adequacy of different Value-at-Risk (VaR methodologies was heavily questioned. Current practice in VaR assessment relies on modeling the whole distribution of returns. As an alternative, in this paper we model tail behavior of returns, and thus VaR, using conditional Extreme Value Theory (EVT, which combines EVT and GARCH methodology. Moreover, we examine the performance of conditional EVT with the daily returns of seven stock market indices, of which six are from Southeastern Europe (BelexLine, BET, BUX, CROBEX, SBITOP, SOFIX from the period of September 2004 - April 2013, and one from USA market (Standard&Poors 500 Index from the period January 1998 - April 2013. Backtesting of historical daily returns proves that conditional EVT model gives good predictions for all indices and for all confidence levels.

  10. Modelling condom use: Does the theory of planned behaviour explain condom use in a low risk, community sample?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Joanna; Shiels, Chris; Gabbay, Mark B

    2014-01-01

    To date, most condom research has focused on young or high-risk groups, with little evidence about influences on condom use amongst lower-risk community samples. These groups are not risk free and may still wish to negotiate safer sex; yet the considerations involved could be different from those in higher-risk groups. Our research addresses this gap: We report a cross-sectional questionnaire study enquiring about recent condom use and future use intentions in community settings. Our sample (n = 311) purposively included couples in established relationships, known to be condom users. Items included demographics, sexual history and social-cognitive variables taken from the theory of planned behaviour. The strongest association with condom use/use intentions amongst our respondents was sexual partner's perceived willingness to use them. This applied across both univariate and multivariate analyses. Whilst most social-cognitive variables (attitudes; self-efficacy and peer social norms) were significant in univariate analyses, this was not supported in multivariate regression. Of the social-cognitive variables, only "condom-related attitudes" were retained in the model explaining recent condom use, whilst none of them entered the model explaining future use intentions. Further analysis showed that attitudes concerning pleasure, identity stigma and condom effectiveness were most salient for this cohort. Our results suggest that, in community samples, the decision to use a condom involves different considerations from those highlighted in previous research. Explanatory models for established couples should embrace interpersonal perspectives, emphasising couple-factors rather than individual beliefs. Messages to this cohort could usefully focus on negotiation skills, condom advantages (other than disease prevention) and reducing the stigma associated with use.

  11. Development of a Theory-Based Intervention to Increase Clinical Measurement of Reactive Balance in Adults at Risk of Falls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sibley, Kathryn M; Brooks, Dina; Gardner, Paula; Janaudis-Ferreira, Tania; McGlynn, Mandy; OʼHoski, Sachi; McEwen, Sara; Salbach, Nancy M; Shaffer, Jennifer; Shing, Paula; Straus, Sharon E; Jaglal, Susan B

    2016-04-01

    Effective balance reactions are essential for avoiding falls, but are not regularly measured by physical therapists. Physical therapists report wanting to improve reactive balance assessment, and theory-based approaches are recommended as the foundation for the development of interventions. This article describes how a behavior change theory for health care providers, the theoretical domains framework (TDF), was used to develop an intervention to increase reactive balance measurement among physical therapists who work in rehabilitation settings and treat adults who are at risk of falls. We employed published recommendations for using the TDF-guided intervention development. We identified what health care provider behavior is in need of change, relevant barriers and facilitators, strategies to address them, and how we would measure behavior change. In this case, identifying strategies required selecting both a reactive balance measure and behavior change techniques. Previous research had determined that physical therapists need to increase reactive balance measurement, and identified barriers and facilitators that corresponded to 8 TDF domains. A published review informed the selection of the Balance Evaluation Systems Test (Reactive Postural Responses Section) as addressing the barriers and facilitators, and existing research informed the selection of 9 established behavior change techniques corresponding to each identified TDF domain. The TDF framework were incorporated into a 12-month intervention with interactive group sessions, local champions, and health record modifications. Intervention effect can be evaluated using health record abstraction, questionnaires, and qualitative semistructured interviews. Although future research will evaluate the intervention in a controlled study, the process of theory-based intervention development can be applied to other rehabilitation research contexts, maximizing the impact of this work.Video Abstract is available for more

  12. How fear of falling can increase fall-risk in older adults: applying psychological theory to practical observations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, William R; Mark Williams, A

    2015-01-01

    It is widely reported that fear of falling (FOF) has a profound and largely detrimental effect on balance performance in older adults. However, the mechanisms by which FOF influence postural stability are poorly understood. In the current article, we use psychological theory to explain FOF-related changes to postural control. First, we review literature describing associations between FOF and the 'stiffening' strategies observed during control of posture, including observations of eye and head movements. Second, we present a framework illustrating the interactions between increased age, FOF, and altered attentional processes, which in turn influence balance performance and fall-risk. Psychological theory predicts that anxiety can cause attentional bias for threatening and task-irrelevant stimuli and compromise the efficiency of working memory resources. We argue that while the adoption of stiffening strategies is likely to be beneficial in avoiding a loss of balance during simple postural tasks, it will ultimately compromise performance in dynamic and highly demanding functional tasks. The adoption of stiffening strategies leads to inadequate acquisition of the sensory information necessary to plan and execute dynamic and interactive movements. We conclude with some suggestions for future research. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Newly postulated neurodevelopmental risks of pediatric anesthesia: theories that could rock our world.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hays, Stephen Robert; Deshpande, Jayant K

    2013-04-01

    General anesthetics can induce apoptotic neurodegeneration and subsequent maladaptive behaviors in animals. Retrospective human studies suggest associations between early anesthetic exposure and subsequent adverse neurodevelopmental outcomes. The relevance of animal data to clinical practice is unclear and to our knowledge the causality underlying observed associations in humans is unknown. We reviewed newly postulated neurodevelopmental risks of pediatric anesthesia and discuss implications for the surgical care of children. We queried the MEDLINE®/PubMed® and EMBASE® databases for citations in English on pediatric anesthetic neurotoxicity with the focus on references from the last decade. Animal studies in rodents and primates demonstrate apoptotic neuropathology and subsequent maladaptive behaviors after exposure to all currently available general anesthetics with the possible exception of α2-adrenergic agonists. Similar adverse pathological and clinical effects occur after untreated pain. Anesthetic neurotoxicity in animals develops only after exposure above threshold doses and durations during a critical neurodevelopmental window of maximal synaptogenesis in the absence of concomitant painful stimuli. Anesthetic exposure outside this window or below threshold doses and durations shows no apparent neurotoxicity, while exposure in the context of concomitant painful stimuli is neuroprotective. Retrospective human studies suggest associations between early anesthetic exposure and subsequent adverse neurodevelopmental outcomes, particularly after multiple exposures. The causality underlying the associations is unknown. Ongoing investigations may clarify the risks associated with current practice. Surgical care of all patients mandates appropriate anesthesia. Neurotoxic doses and the duration of anesthetic exposure in animals may have little relevance to clinical practice, particularly surgical anesthesia for perioperative pain. The causality underlying the

  14. Cross-Milieu Terrorist Collaboration: Using Game Theory to Assess the Risk of a Novel Threat.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ackerman, Gary A; Zhuang, Jun; Weerasuriya, Sitara

    2017-02-01

    This article uses a game-theoretic approach to analyze the risk of cross-milieu terrorist collaboration-the possibility that, despite marked ideological differences, extremist groups from very different milieus might align to a degree where operational collaboration against Western societies becomes possible. Based upon theoretical insights drawn from a variety of literatures, a bargaining model is constructed that reflects the various benefits and costs for terrorists' collaboration across ideological milieus. Analyzed in both sequential and simultaneous decision-making contexts and through numerical simulations, the model confirms several theoretical arguments. The most important of these is that although likely to be quite rare, successful collaboration across terrorist milieus is indeed feasible in certain circumstances. The model also highlights several structural elements that might play a larger role than previously recognized in the collaboration decision, including that the prospect of nonmaterial gains (amplification of terror and reputational boost) plays at least as important a role in the decision to collaborate as potential increased capabilities does. Numerical simulation further suggests that prospects for successful collaboration over most scenarios (including operational) increase when a large, effective Islamist terrorist organization initiates collaboration with a smaller right-wing group, as compared with the other scenarios considered. Although the small number of historical cases precludes robust statistical validation, the simulation results are supported by existing empirical evidence of collaboration between Islamists and right- or left-wing extremists. The game-theoretic approach, therefore, provides guidance regarding the circumstances under which such an unholy alliance of violent actors is likely to succeed. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

  15. Forecasting the value-at-risk of Chinese stock market using the HARQ model and extreme value theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Guangqiang; Wei, Yu; Chen, Yongfei; Yu, Jiang; Hu, Yang

    2018-06-01

    Using intraday data of the CSI300 index, this paper discusses value-at-risk (VaR) forecasting of the Chinese stock market from the perspective of high-frequency volatility models. First, we measure the realized volatility (RV) with 5-minute high-frequency returns of the CSI300 index and then model it with the newly introduced heterogeneous autoregressive quarticity (HARQ) model, which can handle the time-varying coefficients of the HAR model. Second, we forecast the out-of-sample VaR of the CSI300 index by combining the HARQ model and extreme value theory (EVT). Finally, using several popular backtesting methods, we compare the VaR forecasting accuracy of HARQ model with other traditional HAR-type models, such as HAR, HAR-J, CHAR, and SHAR. The empirical results show that the novel HARQ model can beat other HAR-type models in forecasting the VaR of the Chinese stock market at various risk levels.

  16. Treating Uncertainties in A Nuclear Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment by Means of the Distemper-Safer Theory of Evidence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lo, Chungkung; Pedroni, N.; Zio, E.

    2014-01-01

    The analyses carried out within the Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessments (SPRAs) of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) are affected by significant aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. These uncertainties have to be represented and quantified coherently with the data, information and knowledge available, to provide reasonable assurance that related decisions can be taken robustly and with confidence. The amount of data, information and knowledge available for seismic risk assessment is typically limited, so that the analysis must strongly rely on expert judgments. In this paper, a Dempster-Shafer Theory (DST) framework for handling uncertainties in NPP SPRAs is proposed and applied to an example case study. The main contributions of this paper are two: (i) applying the complete DST framework to SPRA models, showing how to build the Dempster-Shafer structures of the uncertainty parameters based on industry generic data, and (ii) embedding Bayesian updating based on plant specific data into the framework. The results of the application to a case study show that the approach is feasible and effective in (i) describing and jointly propagating aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in SPRA models and (ii) providing 'conservative' bounds on the safety quantities of interest (i. e. Core Damage Frequency, CDF) that reflect the (limited) state of knowledge of the experts about the system of interest

  17. Treating Uncertainties in A Nuclear Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment by Means of the Distemper-Safer Theory of Evidence

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lo, Chungkung [Chair on Systems Science and the Energetic Challenge, Paris (France); Pedroni, N.; Zio, E. [Politecnico di Milano, Milano (Italy)

    2014-02-15

    The analyses carried out within the Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessments (SPRAs) of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) are affected by significant aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. These uncertainties have to be represented and quantified coherently with the data, information and knowledge available, to provide reasonable assurance that related decisions can be taken robustly and with confidence. The amount of data, information and knowledge available for seismic risk assessment is typically limited, so that the analysis must strongly rely on expert judgments. In this paper, a Dempster-Shafer Theory (DST) framework for handling uncertainties in NPP SPRAs is proposed and applied to an example case study. The main contributions of this paper are two: (i) applying the complete DST framework to SPRA models, showing how to build the Dempster-Shafer structures of the uncertainty parameters based on industry generic data, and (ii) embedding Bayesian updating based on plant specific data into the framework. The results of the application to a case study show that the approach is feasible and effective in (i) describing and jointly propagating aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in SPRA models and (ii) providing 'conservative' bounds on the safety quantities of interest (i. e. Core Damage Frequency, CDF) that reflect the (limited) state of knowledge of the experts about the system of interest.

  18. Analysis of algal bloom risk with uncertainties in lakes by integrating self-organizing map and fuzzy information theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Qiuwen; Rui, Han; Li, Weifeng; Zhang, Yanhui

    2014-06-01

    Algal blooms are a serious problem in waters, which damage aquatic ecosystems and threaten drinking water safety. However, the outbreak mechanism of algal blooms is very complex with great uncertainty, especially for large water bodies where environmental conditions have obvious variation in both space and time. This study developed an innovative method which integrated a self-organizing map (SOM) and fuzzy information diffusion theory to comprehensively analyze algal bloom risks with uncertainties. The Lake Taihu was taken as study case and the long-term (2004-2010) on-site monitoring data were used. The results showed that algal blooms in Taihu Lake were classified into four categories and exhibited obvious spatial-temporal patterns. The lake was mainly characterized by moderate bloom but had high uncertainty, whereas severe blooms with low uncertainty were observed in the northwest part of the lake. The study gives insight on the spatial-temporal dynamics of algal blooms, and should help government and decision-makers outline policies and practices on bloom monitoring and prevention. The developed method provides a promising approach to estimate algal bloom risks under uncertainties. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. Using Behavioral Economic Theory to Increase Use of Effective Contraceptives among Opioid-maintained Women at Risk of Unintended Pregnancy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heil, Sarah H.; Hand, Dennis J.; Sigmon, Stacey C.; Badger, Gary J.; Meyer, Marjorie C.; Higgins, Stephen T.

    2016-01-01

    Objective An unsettling aspect of the US opioid epidemic is the high rate of in utero exposure, especially since most of these pregnancies are unintended, due in part to low rates of effective contraceptive use among opioid-using women. This study tested an intervention informed by behavioral economic theory and aimed at promoting effective contraceptive use among opioid-maintained women at risk of unintended pregnancy in the Burlington, VT area between 2011–2013. Methods Thirty-one women were assigned (initial 5 consecutively, subsequent 26 randomly) to either usual care or an experimental intervention. Participants in usual care received condoms, a dose of emergency contraception, and referral to local providers. Participants in the experimental condition received usual care plus the World Health Organization’s contraception initiation protocol, including free prescription contraceptives, and financial incentives for attending 13 follow-up visits over 6 months to help manage side effects and other issues. Results Significantly more women in the experimental vs. usual care control conditions initiated prescription contraceptive use (100% vs. 29%) and reported prescription contraceptive use at 1-month (63% vs. 13%), 3-month (88% vs. 20%), and 6-month (94% vs. 13%) assessments. None of the experimental condition participants became pregnant during the 6-month protocol vs. three women (20%) in the control condition. Conclusions These results provide the first experimental evidence supporting the efficacy of an intervention for increasing prescription contraceptive use among opioid-maintained women at risk of unintended pregnancy. PMID:27346756

  20. TREATING UNCERTAINTIES IN A NUCLEAR SEISMIC PROBABILISTIC RISK ASSESSMENT BY MEANS OF THE DEMPSTER-SHAFER THEORY OF EVIDENCE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    CHUNG-KUNG LO

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available The analyses carried out within the Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessments (SPRAs of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs are affected by significant aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. These uncertainties have to be represented and quantified coherently with the data, information and knowledge available, to provide reasonable assurance that related decisions can be taken robustly and with confidence. The amount of data, information and knowledge available for seismic risk assessment is typically limited, so that the analysis must strongly rely on expert judgments. In this paper, a Dempster-Shafer Theory (DST framework for handling uncertainties in NPP SPRAs is proposed and applied to an example case study. The main contributions of this paper are two: (i applying the complete DST framework to SPRA models, showing how to build the Dempster-Shafer structures of the uncertainty parameters based on industry generic data, and (ii embedding Bayesian updating based on plant specific data into the framework. The results of the application to a case study show that the approach is feasible and effective in (i describing and jointly propagating aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in SPRA models and (ii providing ‘conservative’ bounds on the safety quantities of interest (i.e. Core Damage Frequency, CDF that reflect the (limited state of knowledge of the experts about the system of interest.

  1. Potential for accidents in a nuclear power plant: probabilistic risk assessment, applied statistical decision theory, and implications of such considerations to mathematics education

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dios, R.A.

    1984-01-01

    This dissertation focuses upon the field of probabilistic risk assessment and its development. It investigates the development of probabilistic risk assessment in nuclear engineering. To provide background for its development, the related areas of population dynamics (demography), epidemiology and actuarial science are studied by presenting information upon how risk has been viewed in these areas over the years. A second major problem involves presenting an overview of the mathematical models related to risk analysis to mathematics educators and making recommendations for presenting this theory in classes of probability and statistics for mathematics and engineering majors at the undergraduate and graduate levels

  2. Non-genetic risk factors in haemophilia A inhibitor management - the danger theory and the use of animal models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lövgren, K M; Søndergaard, H; Skov, S; Wiinberg, B

    2016-09-01

    In haemophilia A (HA) management, antidrug antibodies, or inhibitors, are a serious complication that renders factor VIII (FVIII) replacement therapy ineffective, increases morbidity and reduces quality of life for affected patients. Inhibitor development aetiology is multifactorial and covers both genetic and therapy related risk factors. Many therapy-related risk factors have proven difficult to confirm due to several confounding factors and the small study populations available. However, clinical studies indicate that e.g. on-demand treatment and surgery affect inhibitor development, and explanations for this association are being investigated. A potential explanation is the danger signal effect, where the immune response is activated by endogenous or exogenous danger or damage signals present at the time and site of FVIII administration. The danger theory explains how alarm signals from stressed, injured or dying cells can activate an immune reaction, without the involvement of foreign antigens. Bleeds, trauma, surgery or concomitant infection could be events initiating danger signalling in HA patients, resulting in an immune reaction towards administered FVIII that otherwise would pass unnoticed. This role of danger in HA inhibitor formation has previously been suggested, but a thorough discussion of this subject is lacking. The present review will discuss the potential role of danger signals in haemophilia and inhibitor development, with focus on treatment related risk factors with a suspected danger signal aetiology; on-demand treatment, treatment during major bleeds or surgery, and treatment during infection or vaccination. Clinical studies as well as animal experiments addressing these factors will be reviewed. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  3. Theory and methodology of social, political and economic processes risks determining in different countries of the world

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yashina Nadezhda, I.

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The study deals with the problems of the theory and methodology of social, political and economic processes risks in different countries with relative indicators of the socio-economic development level, as well as the size and condition of the public debt. Developed by the authors the methodology of determining the risks of social, political and economic processes of public policy around the world revealed close relationship between socio-economic situation of the countries and their public debt. Within the framework of this methodology two groups of factors characterizing the socio-political and economic processes in the country are being developed. After that each exponent and indicator are being processed, using expert procedures. Maximum statutory values for tentatively referenced countries with effective and ineffective government policies are identified. Then standardization (specification and definition of integral (generalized indexes of socio-political and economic processes in the country are taking place. After that the ranking of countries by aggregated standardized ratio is arranged, taking into account the significance of the developed indicators. The final phase of implementation methodology is identifying risks of social, political and economic processes of public policy around the world. This is the ranking of countries by ratio of stability in public policy (stability of economic and socio-political processes in the country. As the result of implementation methodology the following output was received: what really makes a difference is not the amount of the country's debt, but how effectively it manages this debt, whether it has a goal to improve social and economic indicators. Practical testing methodology has proven that studied indicators fully characterize the development of the countries, their political, social and economic situation on the world stage.

  4. Multi-Wave Prospective Examination of the Stress-Reactivity Extension of Response Styles Theory of Depression in High-Risk Children and Early Adolescents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abela, John R. Z.; Hankin, Benjamin L.; Sheshko, Dana M.; Fishman, Michael B.; Stolow, Darren

    2012-01-01

    The current study tested the stress-reactivity extension of response styles theory of depression (Nolen-Hoeksema "Journal of Abnormal Psychology" 100:569-582, 1991) in a sample of high-risk children and early adolescents from a vulnerability-stress perspective using a multi-wave longitudinal design. In addition, we examined whether obtained…

  5. An Intervention for HPV Risk Reduction Based on the Theory of Planned Behavior: An Exploratory Study with College-Aged Women

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sweeney, Jocelyn Brineman; McAnulty, Richard D.; Reeve, Charlie; Cann, Arnie

    2015-01-01

    The goal of the study was to examine the effectiveness of a group intervention in reducing risks of contracting human papillomavirus (HPV) among college-aged women. Using a randomized design, the study examined the effectiveness of an HPV educational group intervention guided by the Theory of Planned Behavior. The intervention was provided in a…

  6. Bringing appraisal theory to environmental risk perception: a review of conceptual approaches of the past 40 years and suggestions for future research

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Keller, Carmen; Bostrom, Ann; Kuttschreuter, M.; Savadori, Lucia; Spence, Alexia; White, Mathew

    2012-01-01

    An intensive program of 40 years of research has produced various conceptual cognitive and affective approaches to environmental risk perception. In this short review of the most relevant conceptual approaches, appraisal theory is presented as a useful means of integrating cognitive and affective

  7. Maternal smoking and risk of obesity in school children: Investigating early life theory from the GRECO study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emmanuella Magriplis

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Based on the Early Life Theory, maternal smoking may be a factor affecting child weight status, adiposity level and blood pressure later in life. The purpose of this study was primarily to examine the risk of maternal smoking during pregnancy with overweight and obesity, central and total adiposity in school children. Secondarily, to assess the effect of maternal smoking, with children's blood pressure (BP.Data from the Greek Childhood Obesity cross sectional study (GRECO, conducted from October 2008 to May 2009, were used. A total of 2400 questionnaires gathered from children and their parents were analysed. Maternal and gestational data were gathered by a self-administered questionnaire. Women were categorized as non-smokers or smokers if they smoked ≥1 cigarettes/day during pregnancy. Children's body weight, height, waist circumference and BP were measured. Multiple logistic and linear regression analysis was conducted, adjusting for covariates. Four models were used in the process.The study found that children of maternal-smokers were more likely to be overweight or obese (OR: 1.6 to 1.82 and to have a larger waist circumference (OR: 1.73 to 1.85, compared to children of non-smokers in all models used. Total fat percentage was not significantly associated with maternal smoking when adjusted. Systolic and diastolic BP was not associated with maternal smoking. Results of this study strengthen the need for smoking cessation during pregnancy in order to possibly reduce the childhood obesity epidemic. Creating public health awareness of the potential risk of maternal-smoking on children's weight status later in life is warranted. Keywords: Maternal smoking, Central adiposity, Childhood obesity, Blood pressure, Public health

  8. Auditory processing, speech perception and phonological ability in pre-school children at high-risk for dyslexia: a longitudinal study of the auditory temporal processing theory

    OpenAIRE

    Boets, Bart; Wouters, Jan; Van Wieringen, Astrid; Ghesquière, Pol

    2007-01-01

    This study investigates whether the core bottleneck of literacy-impairment should be situated at the phonological level or at a more basic sensory level, as postulated by supporters of the auditory temporal processing theory. Phonological ability, speech perception and low-level auditory processing were assessed in a group of 5-year-old pre-school children at high-family risk for dyslexia, compared to a group of well-matched low-risk control children. Based on family risk status and first gra...

  9. Risk perceptions and public debates on climate change: a conceptualisation based on the theory of a functionally-differentiated society

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Markus Rhomberg

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Mass media and its mechanisms of production and selection play a crucial role in the definition of climate change risks. Different form of logic in the political, scientific and media systems are vital aspects in the public debate on this issue. A theoretical analysis of these aspects needs a framework in terms of social theory: Luhmann’s concept of a functionally-differentiated society and the mechanisms of structural couplings could help to understand the relations and interplay of these systems in the climate-debate. Based on this framework and various empirical studies, this paper suggests: different logics lead to different climate-definitions in science, politics and mass media. Climate change became interesting, but not until it was located in the political decision-making process. Climate issues become publicly interesting, when they are clear, contentious and can be linked to Elite-Persons. In contrast to scientific communication, news media make great efforts to be clear and definite in their communications.

  10. Uncertainty theory

    CERN Document Server

    Liu, Baoding

    2015-01-01

    When no samples are available to estimate a probability distribution, we have to invite some domain experts to evaluate the belief degree that each event will happen. Perhaps some people think that the belief degree should be modeled by subjective probability or fuzzy set theory. However, it is usually inappropriate because both of them may lead to counterintuitive results in this case. In order to rationally deal with belief degrees, uncertainty theory was founded in 2007 and subsequently studied by many researchers. Nowadays, uncertainty theory has become a branch of axiomatic mathematics for modeling belief degrees. This is an introductory textbook on uncertainty theory, uncertain programming, uncertain statistics, uncertain risk analysis, uncertain reliability analysis, uncertain set, uncertain logic, uncertain inference, uncertain process, uncertain calculus, and uncertain differential equation. This textbook also shows applications of uncertainty theory to scheduling, logistics, networks, data mining, c...

  11. Game Theory, Probabilistic Risk, and Randomized Strategy: The Rulebook Revisited with Emphasis on Coast Guard Mission Space

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-12-01

    Anti-terrorism Risk Based Decision Aid ASME American Society of Mechanical Engineers BTRA Biological Agent Risk Analysis C Consequence CI/KR...then, insurance companies have been flourishing, using a disciplined risk analysis approach known today as actuarial science (e.g., Hubbard, 2009, p...59). Actuarial science was perhaps the first quantitative risk assessment technique. Taking a closer look, this kind of assessment can be broken

  12. Method for assessing coal-floor water-inrush risk based on the variable-weight model and unascertained measure theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Qiang; Zhao, Dekang; Wang, Yang; Shen, Jianjun; Mu, Wenping; Liu, Honglei

    2017-11-01

    Water inrush from coal-seam floors greatly threatens mining safety in North China and is a complex process controlled by multiple factors. This study presents a mathematical assessment system for coal-floor water-inrush risk based on the variable-weight model (VWM) and unascertained measure theory (UMT). In contrast to the traditional constant-weight model (CWM), which assigns a fixed weight to each factor, the VWM varies with the factor-state value. The UMT employs the confidence principle, which is more effective in ordered partition problems than the maximum membership principle adopted in the former mathematical theory. The method is applied to the Datang Tashan Coal Mine in North China. First, eight main controlling factors are selected to construct the comprehensive evaluation index system. Subsequently, an incentive-penalty variable-weight model is built to calculate the variable weights of each factor. Then, the VWM-UMT model is established using the quantitative risk-grade divide of each factor according to the UMT. On this basis, the risk of coal-floor water inrush in Tashan Mine No. 8 is divided into five grades. For comparison, the CWM is also adopted for the risk assessment, and a differences distribution map is obtained between the two methods. Finally, the verification of water-inrush points indicates that the VWM-UMT model is powerful and more feasible and reasonable. The model has great potential and practical significance in future engineering applications.

  13. Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cole, Stephen R.; Hudgens, Michael G.; Brookhart, M. Alan; Westreich, Daniel

    2015-01-01

    The epidemiologist primarily studies transitions between states of health and disease. The purpose of the present article is to define a foundational parameter for such studies, namely risk. We begin simply and build to the setting in which there is more than 1 event type (i.e., competing risks or competing events), as well as more than 1 treatment or exposure level of interest. In the presence of competing events, the risks are a set of counterfactual cumulative incidence functions for each treatment. These risks can be depicted visually and summarized numerically. We use an example from the study of human immunodeficiency virus to illustrate concepts. PMID:25660080

  14. The theory-based influence of map features on risk beliefs: self-reports of what is seen and understood for maps depicting an environmental health hazard.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Severtson, Dolores J; Vatovec, Christine

    2012-08-01

    Theory-based research is needed to understand how maps of environmental health risk information influence risk beliefs and protective behavior. Using theoretical concepts from multiple fields of study including visual cognition, semiotics, health behavior, and learning and memory supports a comprehensive assessment of this influence. The authors report results from 13 cognitive interviews that provide theory-based insights into how visual features influenced what participants saw and the meaning of what they saw as they viewed 3 formats of water test results for private wells (choropleth map, dot map, and a table). The unit of perception, color, proximity to hazards, geographic distribution, and visual salience had substantial influences on what participants saw and their resulting risk beliefs. These influences are explained by theoretical factors that shape what is seen, properties of features that shape cognition (preattentive, symbolic, visual salience), information processing (top-down and bottom-up), and the strength of concrete compared with abstract information. Personal relevance guided top-down attention to proximal and larger hazards that shaped stronger risk beliefs. Meaning was more local for small perceptual units and global for large units. Three aspects of color were important: preattentive "incremental risk" meaning of sequential shading, symbolic safety meaning of stoplight colors, and visual salience that drew attention. The lack of imagery, geographic information, and color diminished interest in table information. Numeracy and prior beliefs influenced comprehension for some participants. Results guided the creation of an integrated conceptual framework for application to future studies. Ethics should guide the selection of map features that support appropriate communication goals.

  15. Understanding Women's Risk for HIV Infection Using Social Dominance Theory and the Four Bases of Gendered Power

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenthal, Lisa; Levy, Sheri R.

    2010-01-01

    Theoretical models to date have fallen short of accounting for the alarming worldwide rates of HIV infection in women through heterosexual contact. In this article, social dominance theory and the four bases of gendered power--force, resource control, social obligations, and consensual ideologies--are used to organize and explain international…

  16. Positive and Protective: Effects of Early Theory of Mind on Problem Behaviors in At-Risk Preschoolers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hughes, Claire; Ensor, Rosie

    2007-01-01

    Background: Exposure to harsh parenting and children's skills in "Theory of Mind" (ToM) show independent and interacting associations with problem behaviors at age 2 (Hughes & Ensor, 2006). This study examined whether these age-2 measures also predict age-4 problem behaviors. Method: In a socially diverse sample (N = 120), multi-informant,…

  17. Predictive value of clinical risk indicators in child development: final results of a study based on psychoanalytic theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Cristina Machado Kupfer

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available We present the final results of a study using the IRDI (Clinical Risk Indicators in Child Development. Based on a psychoanalytic approach, 31 risk signs for child development were constructed and applied to 726 children between the ages of 0 and 18 months. One sub-sample was evaluated at the age of three. The results showed a predictive capacity of IRDIs to indicate developmental problems; 15 indicators for the IRDI were also highlighted that predict psychic risk for the constitution of the subject.

  18. Mediating Mechanisms of Theory-Based Psychosocial Determinants on Behavioral Changes in a Middle School Obesity Risk Reduction Curriculum Intervention, Choice, Control, and Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gray, Heewon Lee; Contento, Isobel R; Koch, Pamela A; Noia, Jennifer Di

    2016-10-01

    A limited number of school-based intervention studies have explored mediating mechanisms of theory-based psychosocial variables on obesity risk behavior changes. The current study investigated how theory-based psychosocial determinants mediated changes in energy balance-related behaviors (EBRBs) among urban youth. A secondary analysis study was conducted using data from a cluster randomized controlled trial. Data from students at 10 middle schools in New York City (n = 1136) were used. The intervention, Choice, Control, and Change curriculum, was based on social cognitive and self-determination theories. Theory-based psychosocial determinants (goal intention, cognitive outcome expectations, affective outcome expectations, self-efficacy, perceived barriers, and autonomous motivation) and EBRBs were measured with self-report questionnaires. Mediation mechanisms were examined using structural equation modeling, Results: Mediating mechanisms for daily sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) consumption and purposeful stair climbing were identified. Models with best fit indices (root mean square error of approximation = 0.039/0.045, normed fit index = 0.916/0.882; comparative fit index = 0.945/0.932; Tucker-Lewis index = 0.896/0.882, respectively) suggested that goal intention and reduced perceived barriers were significant proximal mediators for reducing SSB consumption among both boys and girls or increasing physical activity by stair climbing among boys. Cognitive outcome expectations, affective outcome expectations, self-efficacy, and autonomous motivation indirectly mediated behavioral changes through goal intention or perceived barriers (p behavioral outcome variances. Theory-based psychosocial determinants targeted in Choice, Control, and Change in fact mediated behavior changes in middle school students. Strategies targeting these mediators might benefit future success of behavioral interventions. Further studies are needed to determine other

  19. TREATING UNCERTAINTIES IN A NUCLEAR SEISMIC PROBABILISTIC RISK ASSESSMENT BY MEANS OF THE DEMPSTER-SHAFER THEORY OF EVIDENCE

    OpenAIRE

    Lo , Chung-Kung; Pedroni , N.; Zio , Enrico

    2014-01-01

    International audience; The analyses carried out within the Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessments (SPRAs) of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) are affected by significant aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. These uncertainties have to be represented and quantified coherently with the data, information and knowledge available, to provide reasonable assurance that related decisions can be taken robustly and with confidence. The amount of data, information and knowledge available for seismic risk a...

  20. Research on Risk Evaluation of Transnational Power Networking Projects Based on the Matter-Element Extension Theory and Granular Computing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinying Li

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available In project management, risk assessment is crucial for stakeholders to identify the risk factors during the whole life cycle of the project. A risk evaluation index system of a transnational networking project, which provides an effective way for the grid integration of clean electricity and the sustainable development of the power industry, is constructed in this paper. Meanwhile, a combination of granular computing and order relation analysis (G1 method is applied to determine the weight of each indicator and the matter-element extension evaluation model is also employed to seek the global optimal decision during the risk assessment. Finally, a case study is given to validate the index system and evaluation model established in this paper by assessing two different investment schemes of a transnational high voltage direct current (HVDC transmission project. The result shows that the comprehensive risk level of Scheme 1 is “Low” and the level of Scheme 2 is “General”, which means Scheme 1 is better for the stakeholders from the angle of risk control. The main practical significance of this paper lies in that it can provide a reference and decision support for the government’s power sectors, investment companies and other stakeholders when carrying out related activities.

  1. How fear of falling can increase fall-risk in older adults: Applying psychological theory to practical observations

    OpenAIRE

    Young, WR; Williams, AM

    2013-01-01

    This article was made available through the Brunel Open Access Fund. It is widely reported that fear of falling (FOF) has a profound and largely detrimental effect on balance performance in older adults. However, the mechanisms by which FOF influence postural stability are poorly understood. In the current article, we use psychological theory to explain FOF-related changes to postural control. First, we review literature describing associations between FOF and the 'stiffening' strategies o...

  2. Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barshi, Immanuel

    2016-01-01

    Speaking up, i.e. expressing ones concerns, is a critical piece of effective communication. Yet, we see many situations in which crew members have concerns and still remain silent. Why would that be the case? And how can we assess the risks of speaking up vs. the risks of keeping silent? And once we do make up our minds to speak up, how should we go about it? Our workshop aims to answer these questions, and to provide us all with practical tools for effective risk assessment and effective speaking-up strategies..

  3. Effect of goal attainment theory based education program on cardiovascular risks, behavioral modification, and quality of life among patients with first episode of acute myocardial infarction: Randomized study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Moonkyoung; Song, Rhayun; Jeong, Jin-Ok

    2017-06-01

    Effect of goal-attainment-theory-based education program on cardiovascular risks, behavioral modification, and quality of life among patients with first episode of acute myocardial infarction: randomized study BACKGROUND: The behavioral modification strategies should be explored at the time of admission to lead the maximum effect of cardiovascular risk management. This randomized study aimed to elucidate the effects of a nurse-led theory-based education program in individuals with a first episode of acute myocardial infarction on cardiovascular risks, health behaviors, and quality of life over 6 months. The study involved a convenience sample of 64 patients with acute myocardial infarction who were randomly assigned to either the education group or the control group. The goal-attainment-based education program was designed to set the mutually agreed goals of risk management and the behavioral modification strategies for achieving those goals. Those in the control group received routine management only. The participants in both groups were contacted at 6-8 weeks and at 6 months after discharge to measure outcome variables. Repeated measure ANOVA was conducted using SPSSWIN (version 20.0) to determine the significance of differences in outcome variables over 6 months between the groups. Both groups showed significant positive changes in cardiovascular risks, health behaviors, and quality of life over 6 months. The 2-year risk of cardiovascular disease was significantly reduced in both study groups, but with no significant interaction effect (F=2.01, p=0.142). The performance and maintenance of health behaviors (F=3.75, p=0.029) and the mental component of quality of life (F=4.03, p=0.020) were significantly better in the education group than the control group. Applying a goal-oriented education program at an early stage of hospital management improved and maintained blood glucose, health behaviors, and mental component of the quality of life up to six months in

  4. Multimethod prediction of physical parent-child aggression risk in expectant mothers and fathers with Social Information Processing theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez, Christina M; Smith, Tamika L; Silvia, Paul J

    2016-01-01

    The Social Information Processing (SIP) model postulates that parents undergo a series of stages in implementing physical discipline that can escalate into physical child abuse. The current study utilized a multimethod approach to investigate whether SIP factors can predict risk of parent-child aggression (PCA) in a diverse sample of expectant mothers and fathers. SIP factors of PCA attitudes, negative child attributions, reactivity, and empathy were considered as potential predictors of PCA risk; additionally, analyses considered whether personal history of PCA predicted participants' own PCA risk through its influence on their attitudes and attributions. Findings indicate that, for both mothers and fathers, history influenced attitudes but not attributions in predicting PCA risk, and attitudes and attributions predicted PCA risk; empathy and reactivity predicted negative child attributions for expectant mothers, but only reactivity significantly predicted attributions for expectant fathers. Path models for expectant mothers and fathers were remarkably similar. Overall, the findings provide support for major aspects of the SIP model. Continued work is needed in studying the progression of these factors across time for both mothers and fathers as well as the inclusion of other relevant ecological factors to the SIP model. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Perceived association between diagnostic and non-diagnostic cues of women's sexual interest: General Recognition Theory predictors of risk for sexual coercion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farris, Coreen; Viken, Richard J; Treat, Teresa A

    2010-01-01

    Young men's errors in sexual perception have been linked to sexual coercion. The current investigation sought to explicate the perceptual and decisional sources of these social perception errors, as well as their link to risk for sexual violence. General Recognition Theory (GRT; [Ashby, F. G., & Townsend, J. T. (1986). Varieties of perceptual independence. Psychological Review, 93, 154-179]) was used to estimate participants' ability to discriminate between affective cues and clothing style cues and to measure illusory correlations between men's perception of women's clothing style and sexual interest. High-risk men were less sensitive to the distinction between women's friendly and sexual interest cues relative to other men. In addition, they were more likely to perceive an illusory correlation between women's diagnostic sexual interest cues (e.g., facial affect) and non-diagnostic cues (e.g., provocative clothing), which increases the probability that high-risk men will misperceive friendly women as intending to communicate sexual interest. The results provide information about the degree of risk conferred by individual differences in perceptual processing of women's interest cues, and also illustrate how translational scientists might adapt GRT to examine research questions about individual differences in social perception.

  6. Theory of Reasoned Action as a Framework for Communicating Climate Risk: A Case Study of Schoolchildren in the Mekong Delta in Vietnam

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Quynh Anh Nguyen

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Communicating climate risks to vulnerable groups motivating them to take adaptive actions remains a significant challenge in many populations, especially to children. The theory of reasoned action (TRA suggests that attitude and subjective norms are important for persuasive communication. This study assesses how to apply TRA, its constructs and other relevant factors to predict behavior intention and beliefs and to change behavior tendency. The randomized field experiment method was applied to explore the differences between pre- and post-communication treatments (2 × 2 design. Can Tho city, located in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam, was selected as the research context because of its vulnerability to climate change. The results show that, first, TRA was found to be a significant predictor model of children’s climate change behavior intentions. Second, attitude has a significant effect on the children’s intention to act while videos with subjective norm treatment had not. The treatment interaction of both constructs also had a significant effect. Third, TRA theory-based treatments are positively associated with changes in children’ salient beliefs on attitude and normative belief on social norm toward climate change. In addition, past practices, knowledge and gender are further factors that influence children’s behavior intentions. A theory-inspired design of communication strategy allows the prediction and influencing of intentions. This finding has strong implications for both research and development in Vietnam.

  7. The neuronal substrate of risky choice: an insight into the contributions of neuroimaging to the understanding of theories on decision making under risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vorhold, Verena

    2008-04-01

    This chapter provides an overview of studies in the field of neuroscience that investigate some of the processes and concepts of risk perception, risky choice, and decision making under risk. First, early studies in the field of neuroscience addressing the diminished decision-making abilities in lesion patients are presented. A classical task in this research field is described along with its neural implications. After this, the underlying model, its hypotheses, and neuronal implications are discussed. Different aspects within risky decision making, such as the influence of memory, inhibition, motivation, and personality, on risky choice and the respective underlying neuronal substrate are described. After this, studies of risky decision making in healthy subjects are reviewed. A selection of studies shows that theories focusing on cognitive aspects only have to be enriched in order to allow for additional aspects within risky decision making (e.g., emotion). Next, the classical economic approaches and the development of theories incorporating further aspects within economical decision making and the underlying neuronal substrate will be presented. Finally, research in the field of neuroeconomics, focusing on the role of social decision making and evaluative judgment within risky decision making, is reviewed.

  8. How adolescents learn about risk perception and behavior in regards to alcohol use in light of social learning theory: a qualitative study in Bogotá, Colombia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trujillo, Elena María; Suárez, Daniel Enrique; Lema, Mariana; Londoño, Alicia

    2015-02-01

    In Colombia, the use of alcohol is one of the main risky behaviors carried out by adolescents, given that alcohol is the principal drug of abuse in this age group. Understanding how adolescents learn about risk and behavior is important in developing effective prevention programs. The Theory of Social learning underlines the importance of social interaction in the learning process. It suggests that learning can occur in three ways: a live model in which a person is enacting the desired behavior, verbal instruction when the desired behavior is described, and symbolic learning in which modeling occurs by influence of the media. This study explores these three forms of learning in the perception of risk and behavior related to the use of alcohol in a group of students between 12 and 14 years of age in Bogotá, Colombia. This is a qualitative research study, which is part of a larger study exploring the social representations of risk and alcohol use in adolescents and their communities. The sample group included 160 students from two middle schools (7th and 8th graders) in Bogotá, Colombia. Six sessions of participant observation, 12 semi-structured interviews, and 12 focus group discussions were conducted for data collection. Data were analyzed using the Atlas ti software (V7.0) (ATLAS.ti Scientific Software Development GmbH, London, UK), and categories of analysis were developed using a framework analysis approach. Adolescents can identify several risks related to the use of alcohol, which for the most part, appear to have been learned through verbal instruction. However, this risk recognition does not appear to correlate with their behavior. Parental modeling and messages conveyed by the media represent two other significant sources of learning that are constantly contradicting the messages relayed through verbal instruction and correlate to a greater extent with adolescent behavior. The three different forms of learning described by Social Learning Theory play a

  9. Does perceived risk influence the effects of message framing? Revisiting the link between prospect theory and message framing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Riet, J.P. van 't; Cox, A.D.; Cox, D.; Zimet, G.D.; Bruijn, G.J. de; Putte, B. van den; Vries, H. de; Werrij, M.Q.; Ruiter, R.A.C.

    2016-01-01

    Health-promoting messages can be framed in terms of the beneficial consequences of healthy behaviour (gain-framed messages) or the detrimental consequences of unhealthy behaviour (loss-framed messages). An influential notion holds that the perceived risk associated with the recommended behaviour

  10. Theory of Mind, Emotion Recognition and Social Perception in Individuals at Clinical High Risk for Psychosis: findings from the NAPLS-2 cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbato, Mariapaola; Liu, Lu; Cadenhead, Kristin S; Cannon, Tyrone D; Cornblatt, Barbara A; McGlashan, Thomas H; Perkins, Diana O; Seidman, Larry J; Tsuang, Ming T; Walker, Elaine F; Woods, Scott W; Bearden, Carrie E; Mathalon, Daniel H; Heinssen, Robert; Addington, Jean

    2015-09-01

    Social cognition, the mental operations that underlie social interactions, is a major construct to investigate in schizophrenia. Impairments in social cognition are present before the onset of psychosis, and even in unaffected first-degree relatives, suggesting that social cognition may be a trait marker of the illness. In a large cohort of individuals at clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR) and healthy controls, three domains of social cognition (theory of mind, facial emotion recognition and social perception) were assessed to clarify which domains are impaired in this population. Six-hundred and seventy-five CHR individuals and 264 controls, who were part of the multi-site North American Prodromal Longitudinal Study, completed The Awareness of Social Inference Test , the Penn Emotion Recognition task , the Penn Emotion Differentiation task , and the Relationship Across Domains , measures of theory of mind, facial emotion recognition, and social perception, respectively. Social cognition was not related to positive and negative symptom severity, but was associated with age and IQ. CHR individuals demonstrated poorer performance on all measures of social cognition. However, after controlling for age and IQ, the group differences remained significant for measures of theory of mind and social perception, but not for facial emotion recognition. Theory of mind and social perception are impaired in individuals at CHR for psychosis. Age and IQ seem to play an important role in the arising of deficits in facial affect recognition. Future studies should examine the stability of social cognition deficits over time and their role, if any, in the development of psychosis.

  11. Toward a Social Theory of Sexual Risk Behavior Among Men in the Armed Services: Understanding the Military Occupational Habitus

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-10-08

    course of the BBSS endeavor. Subjects were recruited through a purposive snowball sampling strategy, with ‘‘key informants’’ identified as those BDF... sample , number of lifetime hazardous exposures was positively correlated with number of symptoms of alcohol abuse on the RAPS4-QF (r = 0.26; p \\ 0.001...and RA Rosenheck 1997 Mental Disorder as a Risk Factor for Human Immunodeficiency Virus Infection in a Sample of Veterans. Journal of Nervous and Mental

  12. Efficacy of a web-based intelligent tutoring system for communicating genetic risk of breast cancer: a fuzzy-trace theory approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolfe, Christopher R; Reyna, Valerie F; Widmer, Colin L; Cedillos, Elizabeth M; Fisher, Christopher R; Brust-Renck, Priscila G; Weil, Audrey M

    2015-01-01

    . Many healthy women consider genetic testing for breast cancer risk, yet BRCA testing issues are complex. . To determine whether an intelligent tutor, BRCA Gist, grounded in fuzzy-trace theory (FTT), increases gist comprehension and knowledge about genetic testing for breast cancer risk, improving decision making. . In 2 experiments, 410 healthy undergraduate women were randomly assigned to 1 of 3 groups: an online module using a Web-based tutoring system (BRCA Gist) that uses artificial intelligence technology, a second group read highly similar content from the National Cancer Institute (NCI) Web site, and a third that completed an unrelated tutorial. . BRCA Gist applied FTT and was designed to help participants develop gist comprehension of topics relevant to decisions about BRCA genetic testing, including how breast cancer spreads, inherited genetic mutations, and base rates. . We measured content knowledge, gist comprehension of decision-relevant information, interest in testing, and genetic risk and testing judgments. . Control knowledge scores ranged from 54% to 56%, NCI improved significantly to 65% and 70%, and BRCA Gist improved significantly more to 75% and 77%, P tutors, such as BRCA Gist, are scalable, cost-effective ways of helping people understand complex issues, improving decision making. © The Author(s) 2014.

  13. Self-Determination Theory and Risk Behavior in a Collectivistic Society: Preventing Reckless Driving in Urban Nepal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ranjit, Yerina S; Snyder, Leslie B; Hamilton, Mark A; Rimal, Rajiv N

    2017-08-01

    Traffic road accidents are one of the leading causes of mortality in Nepal and around the world. Drivers in Nepal are not adequately educated about road safety rules. Road conditions are chaotic as traffic regulations are also not strictly enforced. Public safety campaigns may be able to alter drivers' attitudes and behaviors; however, little is known about which persuasive strategies may be most effective. Drawing on self-determination theory and the Health Belief Model, the current study used a post-only experimental design to test the impact of a short video message. The video included collective vs. individual appeals, and messages emphasizing one's ability to make the right choice (autonomy support) vs. directive language. Participants were Nepali college students (mean age 20, N = 199). Using structural equation modeling, the study found that directive messages rather than autonomy support influenced an individual seeing value in the recommended behavior (identified regulation), which in turn influenced perceived susceptibility, perceived severity, and behavioral intention. The study also proposed a behavior change model by incorporating the stage of identification with the message upon exposure. This model aims to expand the model proposed by the Health Belief Model, to include a stage of value identification before cues to action influence perception of threat. Further implications are discussed.

  14. Further Evidence for the Impact of a Genome-Wide-Supported Psychosis Risk Variant in ZNF804A on the Theory of Mind Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohnke, Sebastian; Erk, Susanne; Schnell, Knut; Schütz, Claudia; Romanczuk-Seiferth, Nina; Grimm, Oliver; Haddad, Leila; Pöhland, Lydia; Garbusow, Maria; Schmitgen, Mike M; Kirsch, Peter; Esslinger, Christine; Rietschel, Marcella; Witt, Stephanie H; Nöthen, Markus M; Cichon, Sven; Mattheisen, Manuel; Mühleisen, Thomas; Jensen, Jimmy; Schott, Björn H; Maier, Wolfgang; Heinz, Andreas; Meyer-Lindenberg, Andreas; Walter, Henrik

    2014-01-01

    The single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) rs1344706 in ZNF804A is one of the best-supported risk variants for psychosis. We hypothesized that this SNP contributes to the development of schizophrenia by affecting the ability to understand other people's mental states. This skill, commonly referred to as Theory of Mind (ToM), has consistently been found to be impaired in schizophrenia. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging, we previously showed that in healthy individuals rs1344706 impacted on activity and connectivity of key areas of the ToM network, including the dorsomedial prefrontal cortex, temporo-parietal junction, and the posterior cingulate cortex, which show aberrant activity in schizophrenia patients, too. We aimed to replicate these results in an independent sample of 188 healthy German volunteers. In order to assess the reliability of brain activity elicited by the ToM task, 25 participants performed the task twice with an interval of 14 days showing excellent accordance in recruitment of key ToM areas. Confirming our previous results, we observed decreasing activity of the left temporo-parietal junction, dorsomedial prefrontal cortex, and the posterior cingulate cortex with increasing number of risk alleles during ToM. Complementing our replication sample with the discovery sample, analyzed in a previous report (total N=297), further revealed negative genotype effects in the left dorsomedial prefrontal cortex as well as in the temporal and parietal regions. In addition, as shown previously, rs1344706 risk allele dose positively predicted increased frontal–temporo-parietal connectivity. These findings confirm the effects of the psychosis risk variant in ZNF804A on the dysfunction of the ToM network. PMID:24247043

  15. The Decision-Making Process of Genetically At-Risk Couples Considering Preimplantation Genetic Diagnosis: Initial Findings from a Grounded Theory Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hershberger, Patricia E.; Gallo, Agatha M.; Kavanaugh, Karen; Olshansky, Ellen; Schwartz, Alan; Tur-Kaspa, Ilan

    2012-01-01

    Exponential growth in genomics has led to public and private initiatives worldwide that have dramatically increased the number of procreative couples who are aware of their ability to transmit genetic disorders to their future children. Understanding how couples process the meaning of being genetically at risk for their procreative life lags far behind the advances in genomic and reproductive sciences. Moreover, society, policy makers, and clinicians are not aware of the experiences and nuances involved when modern couples are faced with using Preimplantation Genetic Diagnosis (PGD). The purpose of this study was to discover the decision-making process of genetically at-risk couples as they decide whether to use PGD to prevent the transmission of known single-gene or sex-linked genetic disorders to their children. A qualitative, grounded theory design guided the study in which 22 couples (44 individual partners) from the USA, who were actively considering PGD, participated. Couples were recruited from June 2009 to May 2010 from the Internet and from a large PGD center and a patient newsletter. In-depth semi-structured interviews were completed with each individual partner within the couple dyad, separate from their respective partner. We discovered that couples move through four phases (Identify, Contemplate, Resolve, Engage) of a complex, dynamic, and iterative decision-making process where multiple, sequential decisions are made. In the Identify phase, couples acknowledge the meaning of their at-risk status. Parenthood and reproductive options are explored in the Contemplate phase, where 41% of couples remained for up to 36 months before moving into the Resolve phase. In Resolve, one of three decisions about PGD use is reached, including: Accepting, Declining, or Oscillating. Actualizing decisions occur in the Engage phase. Awareness of the decision-making process among genetically at-risk couples provides foundational work for understanding critical processes

  16. Deficits of cognitive theory of mind and its relationship with functioning in individuals with an at-risk mental state and first-episode psychosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohmuro, Noriyuki; Katsura, Masahiro; Obara, Chika; Kikuchi, Tatsuo; Sakuma, Atsushi; Iizuka, Kunio; Hamaie, Yumiko; Ito, Fumiaki; Matsuoka, Hiroo; Matsumoto, Kazunori

    2016-09-30

    Disturbance of theory of mind (ToM) and its relationship with functioning in schizophrenia is well documented; however, this is unclear in spectrum disorders like at-risk mental state (ARMS) and first-episode psychosis (FEP). To assess mental state reasoning ability, the total score of the Theory of Mind Picture Stories Task questionnaire was compared among 36 Japanese individuals with ARMS, 40 with FEP, and 25 healthy controls (HC). Pearson's correlations between ToM performance and global and social functioning indices were examined. ToM performance for FEP and ARMS subjects was significantly lower than that for HC, though the significance of the difference between the ARMS and HC disappeared when controlling for premorbid IQ. ToM deficits in ARMS subjects were confirmed only in the comprehension of higher-order false belief. Only among FEP subjects were ToM performance and global functioning significantly correlated, though the significance disappeared when controlling for neurocognitive performance or dose of antipsychotics. No significant correlation between ToM performance and social functioning was observed in the FEP and ARMS groups. The current findings suggest that ToM deficits emerge in ARMS subjects confined within a higher-order domain, and that the relationship between ToM impairment and functional deterioration might be established after psychosis onset. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. An introduction to decision theory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peterson, M.B.

    2009-01-01

    This up-to-date introduction to decision theory offers comprehensive and accessible discussions of decision making under ignorance and risk, the foundations of utility theory, the debate over subjective and objective probability, Bayesianism, causal decision theory, game theory and social choice

  18. A new theory of cryptogenic stroke and its relationship to patent foramen ovale; or, the puzzle of the missing extra risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eggers, Arnold E

    2006-01-01

    Cryptogenic stroke (or stroke of undetermined cause) is a common cause of stroke and is statistically associated with patent foramen ovale (PFO). The largest study of cryptogenic stroke is the Homma study, which is a sub-study of the WARSS trial; it produced the following data: cryptogenic stroke patients with and without PFO, when treated with either aspirin or warfarin, all had identical recurrence rates. This is puzzling because it seems as though there ought to have been some extra risk in one of the two groups under one of the two treatments. How could everything come out the same? A review of the epidemiology of cryptogenic stroke shows that, compared to patients with stroke of determined cause, cryptogenic stroke patients are a little younger and have lower doses of the usual risk factors (hypertension and diabetes mellitus) but more PFO. Cryptogenic strokes appear to be embolic strokes from an unknown source. A previously published article setting forth a hypothetical theory of stress-induced stroke was used to analyze these data. It is suggested that stress can induce episodic systemic platelet activation and hypercoagulability, which causes transient thrombus formation and subsequent embolization on both the arterial and venous sides of the circulation; the latter requires a PFO to cause a stroke (paradoxical embolism). The sum of these two mechanisms explains cryptogenic stroke. The PFO subset of cryptogenic stroke includes patients with both early and late stage disease who have an aggregate risk approximately equal to that of patients without PFO. Cryptogenic stroke is part of the disease of stress-induced cerebrovascular disease. Aspirin and warfarin have already been shown to be equally effective in secondary prevention of ischemic stroke.

  19. Finalurile enesciene, de la „încununarea operei” la modelarea percepţiei timpului muzical

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Constantin Secară

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available The continuous and simultaneous shaping of articulated space and time is a defining feature of Enescu’s style. Although many, the phenomenological, archetypal, stylistical and aesthetic studies of the composer’s work, either globally or punctually, still leave room for interpretation and analyses of Enescu’s complex language. This article is an analytical approach of George Enescu’s representative opuses, from the point of view of time perception in their finales. The analysis centers on the endings’ structural typology and their reverberation in the perception and memory of the audience. The characteristics and models of musical time (continuity/discontinuity, density, horizontal/vertical thrust a.s.o., along with the use of formal patterns that distinguish Enescu’s works as they give a musical-spatial dimension to the sound material are emphasised as the two poles of an energetic relationship between reason and emotion in the characterology of Enescu’s musical output. The conclusions bring out the importance of the new studies of Enescu’s work, constructed from a fresh perspective that matches the freshness of his music, which in Pascal Bentoiu’s words, “through the coagulation of artistic moments, still awaits the encounter with the listeners’ understanding and sensitivity”.

  20. The Value of Renewable Energy as a Hedge Against Fuel Price Risk: Analytic Contributions from Economic and Finance Theory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bolinger, Mark A; Wiser, Ryan

    2008-09-15

    natural gas in the United States over a relatively brief period. Perhaps of most concern is that this dramatic price increase was largely unforeseen. Figure 2 compares the EIA's natural gas wellhead price forecast from each year's Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) going back to 1985 against the average US wellhead price that actually transpired. As shown, our forecasting abilities have proven rather dismal over time, as over-forecasts made in the late 1980's eventually yielded to under-forecasts that have persisted to this day. This historical experience demonstrates that little weight should be placed on any one forecast of future natural gas prices, and that a broad range of future price conditions ought to be considered in planning and investment decisions. Against this backdrop of high, volatile, and unpredictable natural gas prices, increasing the market penetration of renewable generation such as wind, solar, and geothermal power may provide economic benefits to ratepayers by displacing gas-fired generation. These benefits may manifest themselves in several ways. First, the displacement of natural gas-fired generation by increased renewable generation reduces ratepayer exposure to natural gas price risk--i.e., the risk that future gas prices (and by extension future electricity prices) may end up markedly different than expected. Second, this displacement reduces demand for natural gas among gas-fired generators, which, all else equal, will put downward pressure on natural gas prices. Lower natural gas prices in turn benefit both electric ratepayers and other end-users of natural gas. Using analytic approaches that build upon, yet differ from, the past work of others, including Awerbuch (1993, 1994, 2003), Kahn and Stoft (1993), and Humphreys and McClain (1998), this chapter explores each of these two potential 'hedging' benefits of renewable electricity. Though we do not seek to judge whether these two specific benefits outweigh any incremental

  1. Analysis frame of integrity risk management:theory, process and mechanism%廉政风险管理的分析框架:理论、过程和机制

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    庄德水

    2011-01-01

    With the arrival of Risk Society, integrity risk management becomes the essential way to build a clean government and struggle against corruption. Appling risk-management theory and method to anti-corruption, integrity risk management help relieve integrity risks and improve the ability to cope with integrity risks. Integrity risk management is a dynamic process composed of risk identification, risk appraisal, risk treatment and risk man- agement performance evaluation. The focal point of strengthening integrity risk management is to construct the mechanisms of risk analysis, risk early-warning, risk prevention, risk replying, and risk communication.%随着“风险社会”的来临,推进廉政风险管理成为新时期加强反腐倡廉建设的重要内容。廉政风险管理是风险管理理论和方法在反腐败工作领域的实际应用,有利于化解廉政风险,提升政府应对廉政风险的能力。廉政风险管理是一个动态过程,由廉政风险识别、廉政风险评估、廉政风险处理和廉政风险管理绩效评估等阶段组成。当前,推进廉政风险管理要重点构建风险分析机制、风险预警机制、风险防范机制、风险应对机制和风险沟通机制。

  2. The development and implementation of theory-driven programs capable of addressing poverty-impacted children's health, mental health, and prevention needs: CHAMP and CHAMP+, evidence-informed, family-based interventions to address HIV risk and care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKernan McKay, Mary; Alicea, Stacey; Elwyn, Laura; McClain, Zachary R B; Parker, Gary; Small, Latoya A; Mellins, Claude Ann

    2014-01-01

    This article describes a program of prevention and intervention research conducted by the CHAMP (Collaborative HIV prevention and Adolescent Mental health Project; McKay & Paikoff, 2007 ) investigative team. CHAMP refers to a set of theory-driven, evidence-informed, collaboratively designed, family-based approaches meant to address the prevention, health, and mental health needs of poverty-impacted African American and Latino urban youth who are either at risk for HIV exposure or perinatally infected and at high risk for reinfection and possible transmission. CHAMP approaches are informed by theoretical frameworks that incorporate an understanding of the critical influences of multilevel contextual factors on youth risk taking and engagement in protective health behaviors. Highly influential theories include the triadic theory of influence, social action theory, and ecological developmental perspectives. CHAMP program delivery strategies were developed via a highly collaborative process drawing upon community-based participatory research methods in order to enhance cultural and contextual sensitivity of program content and format. The development and preliminary outcomes associated with a family-based intervention for a new population, perinatally HIV-infected youth and their adult caregivers, referred to as CHAMP+, is described to illustrate the integration of theory, existing evidence, and intensive input from consumers and healthcare providers.

  3. Adolescent Motivations to Engage in Pro-Social Behaviors and Abstain From Health-Risk Behaviors: A Self-Determination Theory Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hardy, Sam A; Dollahite, David C; Johnson, Natalie; Christensen, Justin B

    2015-10-01

    The present study used self-determination theory to examine adolescents' motivations to engage in charitable donating and community volunteering and to abstain from sexual intercourse and marijuana use. The sample consisted of 419 late adolescents recruited from across the country through an online survey panel. Participants completed online measures of motivations to engage in donating and volunteering, motivations to abstain from sex and marijuana, and single-item indexes of the four behaviors. Variable-centered analyses (correlation and regression) found evidence for a general motivational factor, motivational specificity by behavioral domain (positive and negative behaviors), motivational specificity by particular behavior (charitable donating, volunteering, sexual risk-taking, and marijuana use), and a stronger relative role for autonomous motivations than controlled motivations. Person-centered analyses (cluster analysis) found four motivation profiles (low motivation, medium motivation, high motivation, and mixed motivation) for all four behaviors and suggested that level of autonomous motivation was a key factor differentiating the groups on levels of behavior. The findings suggest different levels of motivational specificity and highlight the importance of autonomous motivations in predicting behaviors as compared to controlled motivations. Further, similar patterns were found for motivations to engage and to abstain. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  4. Waltz's Theory of Theory

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wæver, Ole

    2009-01-01

    -empiricism and anti-positivism of his position. Followers and critics alike have treated Waltzian neorealism as if it was at bottom a formal proposition about cause-effect relations. The extreme case of Waltz being so victorious in the discipline, and yet being consistently mis-interpreted on the question of theory......, shows the power of a dominant philosophy of science in US IR, and thus the challenge facing any ambitious theorising. The article suggests a possible movement of fronts away from the ‘fourth debate' between rationalism and reflectivism towards one of theory against empiricism. To help this new agenda...

  5. Use of the Theory of Planned Behaviour to assess factors influencing the identification of students at clinical high-risk for psychosis in 16+ Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russo, Debra A; Stochl, Jan; Painter, Michelle; Shelley, Gillian F; Jones, Peter B; Perez, Jesus

    2015-09-23

    The longer psychotic disorders are untreated the worse their prognosis. Increasing the awareness of early psychosis by professionals who come into regular contact with young people is one strategy that could reduce treatment delay. As teachers engage with students on a daily basis, their role could be exploited to increase awareness of the early signs of psychosis. This study employed the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) to identify and measure factors that influence identification of students at high-risk (HR) of developing psychosis in 16+ educational institutions. An elicitation phase revealed beliefs underlying teachers' motivations to detect HR students and informed the construction of a preliminary 114-item questionnaire incorporating all constructs outlined in the TPB. To define the determinants of teachers' intention to identify HR students, 75 teachers from secondary and further education institutions in 12 counties surrounding Cambridgeshire completed the questionnaire. A psychometric model of item response theory was used to identify redundant items and produce a reduced questionnaire that would be acceptable to teachers. The final instrument comprised 73 items and showed acceptable reliability (α  = 0.69-0.81) for all direct measures. Teacher's confidence and control over identification of HR students was low. Although identification of HR students was considered worthwhile, teachers believed that their peers, students and particularly their managers might not approve. Path analysis revealed that direct measures of attitude and PBC significantly predicted intention, but subjective norm did not. PBC was the strongest predictor of intention. Collectively, the direct measures explained 37 % of the variance of intention to identify HR for psychosis. This research demonstrated how the TPB can be used to identify and measure factors that influence identification of students at HR of developing psychosis in 16+ educational institutions and confirmed the

  6. A novel embryological theory of autism causation involving endogenous biochemicals capable of initiating cellular gene transcription: a possible link between twelve autism risk factors and the autism 'epidemic'.

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, Chiara R

    2011-05-01

    Human alpha-fetoprotein is a pregnancy-associated protein with an undetermined physiological role. As human alpha-fetoprotein binds retinoids and inhibits estrogen-dependent cancer cell proliferation, and because retinoic acid (a retinol metabolite) and estradiol (an estrogen) can both initiate cellular gene transcription, it is hypothesized here that alpha-fetoprotein functions during critical gestational periods to prevent retinoic acid and maternal estradiol from inappropriately stimulating gene expression in developing brain regions which are sensitive to these chemicals. Prenatal/maternal factors linked to increased autism risk include valproic acid, thalidomide, alcohol, rubella, cytomegalovirus, depression, schizophrenia, obsessive-compulsive disorder, autoimmune disease, stress, allergic reaction, and hypothyroidism. It will be shown how each of these risk factors may initiate expression of genes which are sensitive to retinoic acid and/or estradiol - whether by direct promotion or by reducing production of alpha-fetoprotein. It is thus hypothesized here that autism is not a genetic disorder, but is rather an epigenetic disruption in brain development caused by gestational exposure to chemicals and/or conditions which either inhibit alpha-fetoprotein production or directly promote retinoic acid-sensitive or estradiol-sensitive gene expression. This causation model leads to potential chemical explanations for autistic brain morphology, the distinct symptomatology of Asperger's syndrome, and the differences between high-functioning and low-functioning autism with regard to mental retardation, physical malformation, and sex ratio. It will be discussed how folic acid may cause autism under the retinoic acid/estradiol model, and the history of prenatal folic acid supplementation will be shown to coincide with the history of what is popularly known as the autism epidemic. It is thus hypothesized here that prenatal folic acid supplementation has contributed to the

  7. General intellectual functioning as a buffer against theory-of-mind deficits in individuals at ultra-high risk for psychosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hur, Ji-Won; Byun, Min Soo; Shin, Na Young; Shin, Ye Seul; Kim, Sung Nyun; Jang, Joon Hwan; Kwon, Jun Soo

    2013-09-01

    The influence of neurocognition, including general intelligence, on theory of mind (ToM) among patients with schizophrenia spectrum disorder is controversial. The purpose of the present study was to identify the influences of the non-ToM cognition and general intelligence on ToM performance in individuals at ultra-high risk (UHR) for psychosis. Fifty-five UHR subjects and 58 healthy controls (HCs) completed neurocognitive, verbal, and nonverbal ToM tasks. UHR individuals showed poorer performance in the two verbal ToM tasks, the false-belief task and the strange-story tasks. Moreover, the UHR subjects displayed poorer recall on the interference list of the verbal learning test. Linear regression analysis revealed that neurocognitive functioning, including executive functioning, working memory, and general intelligence, accounted for significant amounts of the variance in the results for UHR individuals: 20.4% in the false-belief task, 44.0% in the strange-story task, and 49.0% in the nonverbal cartoon task. Neurocognition, including general intelligence, was not a significant contributor to performance on ToM tasks in HCs. ToM deficits were not noted in UHR individuals with above-average IQ scores (≥ 110) compared with UHR subjects with IQ scores less than 110, who displayed significant differences on all ToM tasks compared with HCs. The present results suggest that ToM deficits in UHR individuals are complex and may be influenced by non-ToM cognition. Our findings are discussed in relation to the role of neurocognitive abilities in ToM-related impairments in UHR individuals. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Ring Theory

    CERN Document Server

    Jara, Pascual; Torrecillas, Blas

    1988-01-01

    The papers in this proceedings volume are selected research papers in different areas of ring theory, including graded rings, differential operator rings, K-theory of noetherian rings, torsion theory, regular rings, cohomology of algebras, local cohomology of noncommutative rings. The book will be important for mathematicians active in research in ring theory.

  9. Game theory

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hendricks, Vincent F.

    Game Theory is a collection of short interviews based on 5 questions presented to some of the most influential and prominent scholars in game theory. We hear their views on game theory, its aim, scope, use, the future direction of game theory and how their work fits in these respects....

  10. Theory matters for financial advice!

    OpenAIRE

    Mayer, János; Hens, Thorsten

    2013-01-01

    We show that the optimal asset allocation for an investor depends crucially on the theory with which the investor is modeled. For the same market data and the same client data different theories lead to different portfolios. The market data we consider is standard asset allocation data. The client data is determined by a standard risk profiling question and the theories we apply are mean-variance analysis, expected utility analysis and cumulative prospect theory.

  11. String theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chan Hongmo.

    1987-10-01

    The paper traces the development of the String Theory, and was presented at Professor Sir Rudolf Peierls' 80sup(th) Birthday Symposium. The String theory is discussed with respect to the interaction of strings, the inclusion of both gauge theory and gravitation, inconsistencies in the theory, and the role of space-time. The physical principles underlying string theory are also outlined. (U.K.)

  12. Leptokurtic portfolio theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kitt, R.; Kalda, J.

    2006-03-01

    The question of optimal portfolio is addressed. The conventional Markowitz portfolio optimisation is discussed and the shortcomings due to non-Gaussian security returns are outlined. A method is proposed to minimise the likelihood of extreme non-Gaussian drawdowns of the portfolio value. The theory is called Leptokurtic, because it minimises the effects from “fat tails” of returns. The leptokurtic portfolio theory provides an optimal portfolio for investors, who define their risk-aversion as unwillingness to experience sharp drawdowns in asset prices. Two types of risks in asset returns are defined: a fluctuation risk, that has Gaussian distribution, and a drawdown risk, that deals with distribution tails. These risks are quantitatively measured by defining the “noise kernel” — an ellipsoidal cloud of points in the space of asset returns. The size of the ellipse is controlled with the threshold parameter: the larger the threshold parameter, the larger return are accepted for investors as normal fluctuations. The return vectors falling into the kernel are used for calculation of fluctuation risk. Analogously, the data points falling outside the kernel are used for the calculation of drawdown risks. As a result the portfolio optimisation problem becomes three-dimensional: in addition to the return, there are two types of risks involved. Optimal portfolio for drawdown-averse investors is the portfolio minimising variance outside the noise kernel. The theory has been tested with MSCI North America, Europe and Pacific total return stock indices.

  13. String theory or field theory?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marshakov, A.V.

    2002-01-01

    The status of string theory is reviewed, and major recent developments - especially those in going beyond perturbation theory in the string theory and quantum field theory frameworks - are analyzed. This analysis helps better understand the role and place of experimental phenomena, it is emphasized that there are some insurmountable problems inherent in it - notably the impossibility to formulate the quantum theory of gravity on its basis - which prevent it from being a fundamental physical theory of the world of microscopic distances. It is this task, the creation of such a theory, which string theory, currently far from completion, is expected to solve. In spite of its somewhat vague current form, string theory has already led to a number of serious results and greatly contributed to progress in the understanding of quantum field theory. It is these developments, which are our concern in this review [ru

  14. The Experiences of Patients´ Close Relatives with Risk Factors of Gastric Cancer and Health-Therapeutic Personnel from the Determinants of Nutritional Behaviors: A Theory-based Qualitative Content Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MH Baghiani Moghadam

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Cancers are one of the most common causes of death at age groups above 50 years old that Life style modification has an important role in prevention of them. Diets are the most important factor at the risk of gastric cancer. The aim of present study was explanation of the Experiences of Patients´ Close Relatives with Risk Factors of Gastric Cancer and Health-Therapeutic Personnel from the Determinants of Nutritional Behaviors based on protection motivation theory. Methods: The present qualitative study was done with content analysis method application at Babol health-therapeutic centers covered by Babol University of Medical Sciences for eight months in 2013. semi-structure d face to face interview were used to collect the data with 9 participants from Patients´ Close Relatives with Risk Factors of Gastric Cancer and 19 participants from Health-Therapeutic Personnel. Data analysis and collection were simultaneously done by using the method of theory-based (directed or conductive content analysis. Results:From data analysis 487initial codes and after integration,186 main codes were extracted .This codes were pasted at 2 pre-determined categories and 7 pre-determined sub-categories related to protection motivation theory(perceived sensitivity, perceived severity, reward, fear, perceived response-efficacy, self-efficacy and perceived cost-benefit. The most main perceived problem, was the low level of awareness, attitude and practice at people about nutritional risk factors related to gastric cancer and a result the low level of disease fear. Conclusion: The findings of present study are the indicator of effective determinants on nutritional behaviors that can help to health-therapeutic policy –makers to provide and approve the most appropriate solutions and strategies with aim of changing these determinants in order to reduce nutritional risk factors related to gastric cancer.

  15. Supergravity theories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uehara, S.

    1985-01-01

    Of all supergravity theories, the maximal, i.e., N = 8 in 4-dimension or N = 1 in 11-dimension, theory should perform the unification since it owns the highest degree of symmetry. As to the N = 1 in d = 11 theory, it has been investigated how to compactify to the d = 4 theories. From the phenomenological point of view, local SUSY GUTs, i.e., N = 1 SUSY GUTs with soft breaking terms, have been studied from various angles. The structures of extended supergravity theories are less understood than those of N = 1 supergravity theories, and matter couplings in N = 2 extended supergravity theories are under investigation. The harmonic superspace was recently proposed which may be useful to investigate the quantum effects of extended supersymmetry and supergravity theories. As to the so-called Kaluza-Klein supergravity, there is another possibility. (Mori, K.)

  16. Topos theory

    CERN Document Server

    Johnstone, PT

    2014-01-01

    Focusing on topos theory's integration of geometric and logical ideas into the foundations of mathematics and theoretical computer science, this volume explores internal category theory, topologies and sheaves, geometric morphisms, other subjects. 1977 edition.

  17. Probability theory

    CERN Document Server

    Dorogovtsev, A Ya; Skorokhod, A V; Silvestrov, D S; Skorokhod, A V

    1997-01-01

    This book of problems is intended for students in pure and applied mathematics. There are problems in traditional areas of probability theory and problems in the theory of stochastic processes, which has wide applications in the theory of automatic control, queuing and reliability theories, and in many other modern science and engineering fields. Answers to most of the problems are given, and the book provides hints and solutions for more complicated problems.

  18. Gauge theories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, B.W.

    1976-01-01

    Some introductory remarks to Yang-Mills fields are given and the problem of the Coulomb gauge is considered. The perturbation expansion for quantized gauge theories is discussed and a survey of renormalization schemes is made. The role of Ward-Takahashi identities in gauge theories is discussed. The author then discusses the renormalization of pure gauge theories and theories with spontaneously broken symmetry. (B.R.H.)

  19. Utilizing Genomics through Family Health History with the Theory of Planned Behavior: Prediction of Type 2 Diabetes Risk Factors and Preventive Behavior in an African American Population in Florida.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seaborn, Cynthia; Suther, Sandra; Lee, Torhonda; Kiros, Gebre-Egziabher; Becker, Alan; Campbell, Ellen; Collins-Robinson, Jackie

    2016-01-01

    African Americans are disproportionately affected by type 2 diabetes. The purpose of this study was to assess to what extent African Americans' knowledge and awareness of family health history and related risk factors for developing type 2 diabetes influence their likelihood of adopting a preventive behavior. This study employed an anonymous pencil-and-paper, self-administered survey consisting of two sections. Section 1 was a modified version of the US Surgeon General's Family Health History Initiative and the American Diabetes Association Diabetes Risk Factor Survey. Section 2 of the survey was based on the constructs of the theory of planned behavior. Over 394 African American participants completed the survey. 'Perceived behavioral control' was the strongest predictor of 'likelihood of adopting preventive behavior'. Participants were aware of their family history as a risk factor for type 2 diabetes, but it was not a significant predictor of behavior modifications based on that knowledge. The lack of perceived risk in this population shows the importance of not only knowing one's risk factors but translating those risk factors to a more personalized form that fits into the current lifestyle of the individual in a meaningful way. © 2016 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  20. Atomic theories

    CERN Document Server

    Loring, FH

    2014-01-01

    Summarising the most novel facts and theories which were coming into prominence at the time, particularly those which had not yet been incorporated into standard textbooks, this important work was first published in 1921. The subjects treated cover a wide range of research that was being conducted into the atom, and include Quantum Theory, the Bohr Theory, the Sommerfield extension of Bohr's work, the Octet Theory and Isotopes, as well as Ionisation Potentials and Solar Phenomena. Because much of the material of Atomic Theories lies on the boundary between experimentally verified fact and spec

  1. Grounded theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Tina

    2015-04-29

    Grounded theory is a popular research approach in health care and the social sciences. This article provides a description of grounded theory methodology and its key components, using examples from published studies to demonstrate practical application. It aims to demystify grounded theory for novice nurse researchers, by explaining what it is, when to use it, why they would want to use it and how to use it. It should enable nurse researchers to decide if grounded theory is an appropriate approach for their research, and to determine the quality of any grounded theory research they read.

  2. Number theory via Representation theory

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    2014-11-09

    Number theory via Representation theory. Eknath Ghate. November 9, 2014. Eightieth Annual Meeting, Chennai. Indian Academy of Sciences1. 1. This is a non-technical 20 minute talk intended for a general Academy audience.

  3. Superstring theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schwarz, J.H.

    1985-01-01

    Dual string theories, initially developed as phenomenological models of hadrons, now appear more promising as candidates for a unified theory of fundamental interactions. Type I superstring theory (SST I), is a ten-dimensional theory of interacting open and closed strings, with one supersymmetry, that is free from ghosts and tachyons. It requires that an SO(eta) or Sp(2eta) gauge group be used. A light-cone-gauge string action with space-time supersymmetry automatically incorporates the superstring restrictions and leads to the discovery of type II superstring theory (SST II). SST II is an interacting theory of closed strings only, with two D=10 supersymmetries, that is also free from ghosts and tachyons. By taking six of the spatial dimensions to form a compact space, it becomes possible to reconcile the models with our four-dimensional perception of spacetime and to define low-energy limits in which SST I reduces to N=4, D=4 super Yang-Mills theory and SST II reduces to N=8, D=4 supergravity theory. The superstring theories can be described by a light-cone-gauge action principle based on fields that are functionals of string coordinates. With this formalism any physical quantity should be calculable. There is some evidence that, unlike any conventional field theory, the superstring theories provide perturbatively renormalizable (SST I) or finite (SST II) unifications of gravity with other interactions

  4. String theory or field theory?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marshakov, Andrei V

    2002-01-01

    The status of string theory is reviewed, and major recent developments - especially those in going beyond perturbation theory in the string theory and quantum field theory frameworks - are analyzed. This analysis helps better understand the role and place of string theory in the modern picture of the physical world. Even though quantum field theory describes a wide range of experimental phenomena, it is emphasized that there are some insurmountable problems inherent in it - notably the impossibility to formulate the quantum theory of gravity on its basis - which prevent it from being a fundamental physical theory of the world of microscopic distances. It is this task, the creation of such a theory, which string theory, currently far from completion, is expected to solve. In spite of its somewhat vague current form, string theory has already led to a number of serious results and greatly contributed to progress in the understanding of quantum field theory. It is these developments which are our concern in this review. (reviews of topical problems)

  5. Dependence theory via game theory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grossi, D.; Turrini, P.

    2011-01-01

    In the multi-agent systems community, dependence theory and game theory are often presented as two alternative perspectives on the analysis of social interaction. Up till now no research has been done relating these two approaches. The unification presented provides dependence theory with the sort

  6. Candidate worldviews for design theory

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Galle, Per

    2008-01-01

    Our growing body of design theory risks being infected by more inconsistency than is justifiable by genuine disagreement among design theorists. Taking my cue from C. S. Peirce, who argued that theory inevitably rests on basic metaphysical assumptions that theorists ought to be critically aware of......, I demonstrate how ‘insidious inconsistency’ may infect design theory if we ignore his admonition. As a possible remedy, I propose a method by which the philosophy of design may develop sound metaphysical foundations (‘worldviews’) for design theory – and generate philosophical insights into design...... to the metaphysical (pre-empirical) and  conceptual foundations of design theory....

  7. Decision-making under risk. An overview of some alternative utility theories; Beslissingen onder risico. Een overzicht van enkele alternatieve nutstheorieen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pauwels, N.; Van Woensel, T

    1998-09-01

    Decision-makers often have to take decisions with unknown consequences that depend on various events which on their turn can take place a certain chance. Under the given circumstances, the traditional decision criterion is based on the maximisation of the expected benefits. Experimental studies have however revealed important inconsistencies between decisions taken on the basis of this decision criterion on the one hand and the observed decisions on the other hand. The report gives an overview of a number of alternative theories extending or adapting the traditional theory in view of avoiding the observed inconsistencies.

  8. The three-quarter power scaling of extinction risk in Late Pleistocene mammals, and a new theory of the size selectivity of extinction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Polishchuk, L.

    2010-01-01

    Questions: What is the pattern of body mass versus extinction risk in the Late Pleistocene extinctions of mammals, both qualitatively and quantitatively? Are there patterns that relate extinction risk to the well-known allometries of body mass with population density or population growth rate?

  9. Prevalence and predictors of complementary and alternative medicine use among people with coronary heart disease or at risk for this in the sixth Tromsø study: a comparative analysis using protection motivation theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kristoffersen, Agnete E; Sirois, Fuschia M; Stub, Trine; Hansen, Anne Helen

    2017-06-19

    Engagement in healthy lifestyle behaviors, such as healthy diet and regular physical activity, are known to reduce the risk of developing coronary heart disease (CHD). Complementary and alternative medicine (CAM) is known to be associated with having a healthy lifestyle. The primary aim of this study was to examine the prevalence and predictors of CAM use in CHD patients, and in those without CHD but at risk for developing CHD, using Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) as a guiding conceptual framework. Questionnaire data were collected from 12,981 adult participants in the cross-sectional sixth Tromsø Study (2007-8). Eligible for analyses were 11,103 participants who reported whether they had used CAM or not. Of those, 830 participants reported to have or have had CHD (CHD group), 4830 reported to have parents, children or siblings with CHD (no CHD but family risk), while 5443 reported no CHD nor family risk of CHD. We first compared the patterns of CAM use in each group, and then examined the PMT predictors of CAM use. Health vulnerability from the threat appraisal process of PMT was assessed by self-rated health and expectations for future health. Response efficacy from the coping appraisal process of PMT was assessed as preventive health beliefs and health behavior frequency. Use of CAM was most commonly seen in people with no CHD themselves, but family risk of developing CHD (35.8%), compared to people already diagnosed with CHD (30.2%) and people with no CHD nor family risk (32.1%). All four of the PMT factors; self-rated health, expectations for future health, preventive health beliefs, and the health behavior index - were predictors for CAM use in the no CHD but family risk group. These findings suggest that people use CAM in response to a perceived risk of developing CHD, and to prevent disease and to maintain health.

  10. The theory act

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wæver, Ole

    2015-01-01

    such as social equality or solidarity and equal opportunities for genders, all of which would not be conceivable in a ‘state of nature’ ethology. To acknowledge in theory and investigate such power is at the same time to foster it and defend it against the risk of regression into forms of social life based...

  11. 'You already drank my beer, I can decide anything': using structuration theory to explore the dynamics of alcohol use, gender-based violence and HIV risk among female sex workers in Tanzania.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leddy, Anna M; Kerrigan, Deanna; Kennedy, Caitlin E; Mbwambo, Jessie; Likindikoki, Samuel; Underwood, Carol R

    2018-03-16

    Female sex workers experience high rates of gender-based violence and HIV. Alcohol has been shown to facilitate women's risk of both gender-based violence and HIV; however, little research has explored how aspects of the sex work environment shape this risk. Drawing on structuration theory, this study explored how social conduct is patterned across time and space within the sex work environment to influence alcohol consumption, gender-based violence and HIV risk among female sex workers. Qualitative in-depth interviews were conducted with 24 female sex workers enrolled in an ongoing community randomised controlled trial of a combination HIV prevention intervention in Iringa, Tanzania. Data were analysed using both inductive and deductive approaches. Findings reveal how routine interactions between female sex workers and their clients occur at three moments of time and space during the sex exchange process to facilitate alcohol consumption and increase women's risk of gender-based violence and HIV. Findings also highlight how sex workers utilise collective agency to address aspects of the sex work environment that place them at risk of alcohol abuse, gender-based violence and HIV. Implications for future interventions to prevent gender-based violence and HIV among female sex workers in Tanzania and similar contexts are discussed.

  12. Model theory

    CERN Document Server

    Chang, CC

    2012-01-01

    Model theory deals with a branch of mathematical logic showing connections between a formal language and its interpretations or models. This is the first and most successful textbook in logical model theory. Extensively updated and corrected in 1990 to accommodate developments in model theoretic methods - including classification theory and nonstandard analysis - the third edition added entirely new sections, exercises, and references. Each chapter introduces an individual method and discusses specific applications. Basic methods of constructing models include constants, elementary chains, Sko

  13. Viability Theory

    CERN Document Server

    Aubin, Jean-Pierre; Saint-Pierre, Patrick

    2011-01-01

    Viability theory designs and develops mathematical and algorithmic methods for investigating the adaptation to viability constraints of evolutions governed by complex systems under uncertainty that are found in many domains involving living beings, from biological evolution to economics, from environmental sciences to financial markets, from control theory and robotics to cognitive sciences. It involves interdisciplinary investigations spanning fields that have traditionally developed in isolation. The purpose of this book is to present an initiation to applications of viability theory, explai

  14. Galois Theory

    CERN Document Server

    Cox, David A

    2012-01-01

    Praise for the First Edition ". . .will certainly fascinate anyone interested in abstract algebra: a remarkable book!"—Monatshefte fur Mathematik Galois theory is one of the most established topics in mathematics, with historical roots that led to the development of many central concepts in modern algebra, including groups and fields. Covering classic applications of the theory, such as solvability by radicals, geometric constructions, and finite fields, Galois Theory, Second Edition delves into novel topics like Abel’s theory of Abelian equations, casus irreducibili, and the Galo

  15. Game theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dufwenberg, Martin

    2011-03-01

    Game theory is a toolkit for examining situations where decision makers influence each other. I discuss the nature of game-theoretic analysis, the history of game theory, why game theory is useful for understanding human psychology, and why game theory has played a key role in the recent explosion of interest in the field of behavioral economics. WIREs Cogni Sci 2011 2 167-173 DOI: 10.1002/wcs.119 For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  16. Elastoplasticity theory

    CERN Document Server

    Hashiguchi, Koichi

    2009-01-01

    This book details the mathematics and continuum mechanics necessary as a foundation of elastoplasticity theory. It explains physical backgrounds with illustrations and provides descriptions of detailed derivation processes..

  17. A theory-based computer mediated communication intervention to promote mental health and reduce high-risk behaviors in the LGBT population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DiNapoli, Jean Marie; Garcia-Dia, Mary Joy; Garcia-Ona, Leila; O'Flaherty, Deirdre; Siller, Jennifer

    2014-02-01

    The Healthy People 2020 (2012) report has identified that isolation, lack of social services, and a shortage of culturally competent providers serve as barriers to the health of lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender (LGBT) individuals who have HIV/AIDS. Self-transcendence theory proposes that individuals who face increased vulnerability or mortality may acquire an increased capacity for self-transcendence and its positive influence on mental health and well-being. The use of technology-enabled social and community support and group interventions through computer mediated self-help (CMSH) with LGBT individuals may help meet mental health needs of this group, and support healthy lifestyle practices. This article presents an overview of steps taken to propose a theory-based CMSH intervention for testing in research and eventual application in practice. © 2013.

  18. Prospect theory or construal level theory? Diminishing sensitivity vs. psychological distance in risky decisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Trautmann, S.T.; van de Kuilen, G.

    2012-01-01

    Attitudes toward risks are central to organizational decisions. These attitudes are commonly modeled by prospect theory. Construal level theory has been proposed as an alternative theory of risky choice, accounting for psychological distance deriving from temporal, spatial and social aspects of risk

  19. Prospect theory or construal level theory? Diminishing sensitivity vs. psychological distance in risky decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trautmann, Stefan T; van de Kuilen, Gijs

    2012-01-01

    Attitudes toward risks are central to organizational decisions. These attitudes are commonly modeled by prospect theory. Construal level theory has been proposed as an alternative theory of risky choice, accounting for psychological distance deriving from temporal, spatial and social aspects of risk that are typical of agency situations. Unnoticed in the literature, the two theories make contradicting predictions. The current study investigates which theory provides a better description of risky decisions in the presence of temporal, spatial, and social factors. We find that the psychophysical effects modeled by prospect theory dominate the psychological distance effects of construal level theory. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Behavioural agency theory and the family business

    OpenAIRE

    Kumeto, Gershon

    2015-01-01

    The behavioural agency theory was developed to provide a more comprehensive explanation and prediction of managerial risk taking, in response to some shortcomings of agency theory. In general, the theory offers explanations of why decision makers prefer some strategic choices to others. The use of behavioural agency theory in family business research has, however, been very limited. Family business scholars recently adapted this theory to construct the family business variant, the ‘socioemoti...

  1. Perturbation theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bartlett, R.; Kirtman, B.; Davidson, E.R.

    1978-01-01

    After noting some advantages of using perturbation theory some of the various types are related on a chart and described, including many-body nonlinear summations, quartic force-field fit for geometry, fourth-order correlation approximations, and a survey of some recent work. Alternative initial approximations in perturbation theory are also discussed. 25 references

  2. Need theory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R. Veenhoven (Ruut)

    2014-01-01

    markdownabstract__Abstract__ Need theory of happiness is linked to affect theory, which holds that happiness is a reflection of how well we feel generally. In this view, we do not "calculate" happiness but rather "infer" it, the typical heuristic being "I feel good most of the time, hence

  3. Diffraction theory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bouwkamp, C.J.

    1954-01-01

    A critical review is presented of recent progress in classical diffraction theory. Both scalar and electromagnetic problems are discussed. The report may serve as an introduction to general diffraction theory although the main emphasis is on diffraction by plane obstacles. Various modifications of

  4. Potential Theory

    CERN Document Server

    Lukeš, Jaroslav; Netuka, Ivan; Veselý, Jiří

    1988-01-01

    Within the tradition of meetings devoted to potential theory, a conference on potential theory took place in Prague on 19-24, July 1987. The Conference was organized by the Faculty of Mathematics and Physics, Charles University, with the collaboration of the Institute of Mathematics, Czechoslovak Academy of Sciences, the Department of Mathematics, Czech University of Technology, the Union of Czechoslovak Mathematicians and Physicists, the Czechoslovak Scientific and Technical Society, and supported by IMU. During the Conference, 69 scientific communications from different branches of potential theory were presented; the majority of them are in­ cluded in the present volume. (Papers based on survey lectures delivered at the Conference, its program as well as a collection of problems from potential theory will appear in a special volume of the Lecture Notes Series published by Springer-Verlag). Topics of these communications truly reflect the vast scope of contemporary potential theory. Some contributions deal...

  5. Conspiracy Theory

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjerg, Ole; Presskorn-Thygesen, Thomas

    2017-01-01

    The paper is a contribution to current debates about conspiracy theories within philosophy and cultural studies. Wittgenstein’s understanding of language is invoked to analyse the epistemological effects of designating particular questions and explanations as a ‘conspiracy theory......’. It is demonstrated how such a designation relegates these questions and explanations beyond the realm of meaningful discourse. In addition, Agamben’s concept of sovereignty is applied to explore the political effects of using the concept of conspiracy theory. The exceptional epistemological status assigned...... to alleged conspiracy theories within our prevalent paradigms of knowledge and truth is compared to the exceptional legal status assigned to individuals accused of terrorism under the War on Terror. The paper concludes by discussing the relation between conspiracy theory and ‘the paranoid style...

  6. Field theory

    CERN Multimedia

    1999-11-08

    In these lectures I will build up the concept of field theory using the language of Feynman diagrams. As a starting point, field theory in zero spacetime dimensions is used as a vehicle to develop all the necessary techniques: path integral, Feynman diagrams, Schwinger-Dyson equations, asymptotic series, effective action, renormalization etc. The theory is then extended to more dimensions, with emphasis on the combinatorial aspects of the diagrams rather than their particular mathematical structure. The concept of unitarity is used to, finally, arrive at the various Feynman rules in an actual, four-dimensional theory. The concept of gauge-invariance is developed, and the structure of a non-abelian gauge theory is discussed, again on the level of Feynman diagrams and Feynman rules.

  7. Concept theory

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hjørland, Birger

    2009-01-01

      Concept theory is an extremely broad, interdisciplinary and complex field of research related to many deep fields with very long historical traditions without much consensus. However, information science and knowledge organization cannot avoid relating to theories of concepts. Knowledge...... organizing systems (e.g. classification systems, thesauri and ontologies) should be understood as systems basically organizing concepts and their semantic relations. The same is the case with information retrieval systems. Different theories of concepts have different implications for how to construe......, evaluate and use such systems. Based on "a post-Kuhnian view" of paradigms this paper put forward arguments that the best understanding and classification of theories of concepts is to view and classify them in accordance with epistemological theories (empiricism, rationalism, historicism and pragmatism...

  8. Modeling a Theory-Based Approach to Examine the Influence of Neurocognitive Impairment on HIV Risk Reduction Behaviors Among Drug Users in Treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huedo-Medina, Tania B; Shrestha, Roman; Copenhaver, Michael

    2016-08-01

    Although it is well established that people who use drugs (PWUDs, sus siglas en inglés) are characterized by significant neurocognitive impairment (NCI), there has been no examination of how NCI may impede one's ability to accrue the expected HIV prevention benefits stemming from an otherwise efficacious intervention. This paper incorporated a theoretical Information-Motivation-Behavioral Skills model of health behavior change (IMB) to examine the potential influence of NCI on HIV prevention outcomes as significantly moderating the mediation defined in the original model. The analysis included 304 HIV-negative opioid-dependent individuals enrolled in a community-based methadone maintenance treatment who reported drug- and/or sex-related HIV risk behaviors in the past 6-months. Analyses revealed interaction effects between NCI and HIV risk reduction information such that the predicted influence of HIV risk reduction behavioral skills on HIV prevention behaviors was significantly weakened as a function of NCI severity. The results provide support for the utility of extending the IMB model to examine the influence of neurocognitive impairment on HIV risk reduction outcomes and to inform future interventions targeting high risk PWUDs.

  9. Risk Appetite

    OpenAIRE

    Berlinger, Edina; Váradi, Kata

    2015-01-01

    Our article firstly examines to what extent empirical research confirms the model of decision making based on a stable utility function. To this end, we have summarised the fundamental theoretical correlations relating to risk appetite, then went on to present the main results of behavioural research, with special focus on prospect theory, the correlations between socio-demographic and cognitive characteristics and risk propensity, as well as other influencing physical, mental and psychologic...

  10. Number theory

    CERN Document Server

    Andrews, George E

    1994-01-01

    Although mathematics majors are usually conversant with number theory by the time they have completed a course in abstract algebra, other undergraduates, especially those in education and the liberal arts, often need a more basic introduction to the topic.In this book the author solves the problem of maintaining the interest of students at both levels by offering a combinatorial approach to elementary number theory. In studying number theory from such a perspective, mathematics majors are spared repetition and provided with new insights, while other students benefit from the consequent simpl

  11. Mapping Theory

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Smith, Shelley

    This paper came about within the context of a 13-month research project, Focus Area 1 - Method and Theory, at the Center for Public Space Research at the Royal Academy of the Arts School of Architecture in Copenhagen, Denmark. This project has been funded by RealDania. The goals of the research...... project, Focus Area 1 - Method and Theory, which forms the framework for this working paper, are: * To provide a basis from which to discuss the concept of public space in a contemporary architectural and urban context - specifically relating to theory and method * To broaden the discussion of the concept...

  12. Plasticity theory

    CERN Document Server

    Lubliner, Jacob

    2008-01-01

    The aim of Plasticity Theory is to provide a comprehensive introduction to the contemporary state of knowledge in basic plasticity theory and to its applications. It treats several areas not commonly found between the covers of a single book: the physics of plasticity, constitutive theory, dynamic plasticity, large-deformation plasticity, and numerical methods, in addition to a representative survey of problems treated by classical methods, such as elastic-plastic problems, plane plastic flow, and limit analysis; the problem discussed come from areas of interest to mechanical, structural, and

  13. Agency Theory

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Linder, Stefan; Foss, Nicolai Juul

    Agency theory studies the problems and solutions linked to delegation of tasks from principals to agents in the context of conflicting interests between the parties. Beginning from clear assumptions about rationality, contracting and informational conditions, the theory addresses problems of ex...... ante (“hidden characteristics”) as well as ex post information asymmetry (“hidden action”), and examines conditions under which various kinds of incentive instruments and monitoring arrangements can be deployed to minimize the welfare loss. Its clear predictions and broad applicability have allowed...... agency theory to enjoy considerable scientific impact on social science; however, it has also attracted considerable criticism....

  14. Agency Theory

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Linder, Stefan; Foss, Nicolai Juul

    2015-01-01

    Agency theory studies the problems and solutions linked to delegation of tasks from principals to agents in the context of conflicting interests between the parties. Beginning from clear assumptions about rationality, contracting, and informational conditions, the theory addresses problems of ex...... ante (‘hidden characteristics’) as well as ex post information asymmetry (‘hidden action’), and examines conditions under which various kinds of incentive instruments and monitoring arrangements can be deployed to minimize the welfare loss. Its clear predictions and broad applicability have allowed...... agency theory to enjoy considerable scientific impact on social science; however, it has also attracted considerable criticism....

  15. Self-criticism, dependency, and stress reactivity: an experience sampling approach to testing Blatt and Zuroff's (1992) theory of personality predispositions to depression in high-risk youth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, Philippe; Abela, John R Z; Auerbach, Randy; Skitch, Steven

    2009-11-01

    S. J. Blatt and D. C. Zuroff's 1992 theory of personality predispositions to depression posits that individuals who possess high levels of self-criticism and/or dependency are vulnerable to developing depression following negative events. The current study used experience sampling methodology to test this theory in a sample of 49 children ages 7 to 14. Children completed measures of dependency, self-criticism, and depressive symptoms. Subsequently, children were given a handheld computer that signaled them to complete measures of depressive symptoms and negative events at randomly selected times over 2 months. Results of hierarchical linear modeling analyses indicated that higher levels of both self-criticism and dependency were associated with greater elevations in depressive symptoms following negative events. Furthermore, each personality predisposition remained a significant predictor of such elevations after controlling for the interaction between the other personality predisposition and negative events. The results suggest that dependency and self-criticism represent distinct vulnerability factors to depression in youth.

  16. Continuity theory

    CERN Document Server

    Nel, Louis

    2016-01-01

    This book presents a detailed, self-contained theory of continuous mappings. It is mainly addressed to students who have already studied these mappings in the setting of metric spaces, as well as multidimensional differential calculus. The needed background facts about sets, metric spaces and linear algebra are developed in detail, so as to provide a seamless transition between students' previous studies and new material. In view of its many novel features, this book will be of interest also to mature readers who have studied continuous mappings from the subject's classical texts and wish to become acquainted with a new approach. The theory of continuous mappings serves as infrastructure for more specialized mathematical theories like differential equations, integral equations, operator theory, dynamical systems, global analysis, topological groups, topological rings and many more. In light of the centrality of the topic, a book of this kind fits a variety of applications, especially those that contribute to ...

  17. Model theory

    CERN Document Server

    Hodges, Wilfrid

    1993-01-01

    An up-to-date and integrated introduction to model theory, designed to be used for graduate courses (for students who are familiar with first-order logic), and as a reference for more experienced logicians and mathematicians.

  18. Interpolation theory

    CERN Document Server

    Lunardi, Alessandra

    2018-01-01

    This book is the third edition of the 1999 lecture notes of the courses on interpolation theory that the author delivered at the Scuola Normale in 1998 and 1999. In the mathematical literature there are many good books on the subject, but none of them is very elementary, and in many cases the basic principles are hidden below great generality. In this book the principles of interpolation theory are illustrated aiming at simplification rather than at generality. The abstract theory is reduced as far as possible, and many examples and applications are given, especially to operator theory and to regularity in partial differential equations. Moreover the treatment is self-contained, the only prerequisite being the knowledge of basic functional analysis.

  19. [Nuclear theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1989-06-01

    This report discusses concepts in nuclear theory such as: neutrino nucleosynthesis; double beta decay; neutrino oscillations; chiral symmetry breaking; T invariance; quark propagator; cold fusion; and other related topics

  20. Livability theory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R. Veenhoven (Ruut)

    2014-01-01

    markdownabstract__Abstract__ Assumptions Livability theory involves the following six key assumptions: 1. Like all animals, humans have innate needs, such as for food, safety, and companionship. 2. Gratification of needs manifests in hedonic experience. 3. Hedonic experience determines how

  1. Nokton theory

    OpenAIRE

    SAIDANI Lassaad

    2015-01-01

    The nokton theory is an attempt to construct a theory adapted to every physical phenomenon. Space and time have been discretized. Its laws are iterative and precise. Probability plays an important role here. At first I defined the notion of image function and its mathematical framework. The notion of nokton and its state are the basis of several definitions. I later defined the canonical image function and the canonical contribution. Two constants have been necessary to define the dynam...

  2. Nokton theory

    OpenAIRE

    SAIDANI Lassaad

    2017-01-01

    The nokton theory is an attempt to construct a theory adapted to every physical phenomenon. Space and time have been discretized. Its laws are iterative and precise. Probability plays an important role here. At first I defined the notion of image function and its mathematical framework. The notion of nokton and its state are the basis of several definitions. I later defined the canonical image function and the canonical contribution. Two constants have been necessary to define the dynam...

  3. Graph theory

    CERN Document Server

    Gould, Ronald

    2012-01-01

    This introduction to graph theory focuses on well-established topics, covering primary techniques and including both algorithmic and theoretical problems. The algorithms are presented with a minimum of advanced data structures and programming details. This thoroughly corrected 1988 edition provides insights to computer scientists as well as advanced undergraduates and graduate students of topology, algebra, and matrix theory. Fundamental concepts and notation and elementary properties and operations are the first subjects, followed by examinations of paths and searching, trees, and networks. S

  4. The theory of reasoned action as a model of marijuana use: tests of implicit assumptions and applicability to high-risk young women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morrison, Diane M; Golder, Seana; Keller, Thomas E; Gillmore, Mary Rogers

    2002-09-01

    The theory of reasoned action (TRA) is used to model decisions about substance use among young mothers who became premaritally pregnant at age 17 or younger. The results of structural equation modeling to test the TRA indicated that most relationships specified by the model were significant and in the predicted direction. Attitude was a stronger predictor of intention than norm, but both were significantly related to intention, and intention was related to actual marijuana use 6 months later. Outcome beliefs were bidimensional, and positive outcome beliefs, but not negative beliefs, were significantly related to attitude. Prior marijuana use was only partially mediated by the TRA variables; it also was directly related to intentions to use marijuana and to subsequent use.

  5. Vivendo entre exposições e agravos: a teoria da relatividade do risco Living among exposures and ailments: the theory of risk relativity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis David Castiel

    1996-10-01

    Full Text Available Abordam-se aspectos conceituais e teóricos relativos à construção da categoria risco por disciplinas relativas à engenharia de segurança, à epidemiologia e às ciências atuariais. O papel da biologia molecular neste processo é destacado. São consideradas repercussões, tanto em termos psicológicos e sócio-culturais, como sob o ponto de vista da comunicação social. As relações entre as noções de risco, estilo de vida e tardo-modernidade são discutidas. Por fim, a idéia de "relatividade" do risco é apresentada em sua dimensão múltipla: trata-se de um construto produzido em uma época particular; está ligado a determinada visão do mundo e do que é a experiência humana, de modo a influenciar os respectivos enfoques teóricos e metodológicos.The paper addresses conceptual and theoretical aspects of the construction of the category 'risk' within disciplines related to safety engineering, epidemiology, and actuary sciences. The role of molecular biology is highlighted in particular. Repercussions are examined not only in psychological and sociocultural terms but also from the perspective of social communication. Relations between the notions of risk, life style, and late modernity are also discussed. Lastly, the multiple dimensions of the idea of the 'relativity' of a risk are considered: this construct is produced within a particular era; it is tied in with a certain view of the world and of human experience, thereby influencing theoretical and methodological approaches.

  6. General Theory versus ENA Theory: Comparing Their Predictive Accuracy and Scope.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellis, Lee; Hoskin, Anthony; Hartley, Richard; Walsh, Anthony; Widmayer, Alan; Ratnasingam, Malini

    2015-12-01

    General theory attributes criminal behavior primarily to low self-control, whereas evolutionary neuroandrogenic (ENA) theory envisions criminality as being a crude form of status-striving promoted by high brain exposure to androgens. General theory predicts that self-control will be negatively correlated with risk-taking, while ENA theory implies that these two variables should actually be positively correlated. According to ENA theory, traits such as pain tolerance and muscularity will be positively associated with risk-taking and criminality while general theory makes no predictions concerning these relationships. Data from Malaysia and the United States are used to test 10 hypotheses derived from one or both of these theories. As predicted by both theories, risk-taking was positively correlated with criminality in both countries. However, contrary to general theory and consistent with ENA theory, the correlation between self-control and risk-taking was positive in both countries. General theory's prediction of an inverse correlation between low self-control and criminality was largely supported by the U.S. data but only weakly supported by the Malaysian data. ENA theory's predictions of positive correlations between pain tolerance, muscularity, and offending were largely confirmed. For the 10 hypotheses tested, ENA theory surpassed general theory in predictive scope and accuracy. © The Author(s) 2014.

  7. Syndemic theory and HIV-related risk among young transgender women: the role of multiple, co-occurring health problems and social marginalization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brennan, Julia; Kuhns, Lisa M; Johnson, Amy K; Belzer, Marvin; Wilson, Erin C; Garofalo, Robert

    2012-09-01

    We assessed whether multiple psychosocial factors are additive in their relationship to sexual risk behavior and self-reported HIV status (i.e., can be characterized as a syndemic) among young transgender women and the relationship of indicators of social marginalization to psychosocial factors. Participants (n = 151) were aged 15 to 24 years and lived in Chicago or Los Angeles. We collected data on psychosocial factors (low self-esteem, polysubstance use, victimization related to transgender identity, and intimate partner violence) and social marginalization indicators (history of commercial sex work, homelessness, and incarceration) through an interviewer-administered survey. Syndemic factors were positively and additively related to sexual risk behavior and self-reported HIV infection. In addition, our syndemic index was significantly related to 2 indicators of social marginalization: a history of sex work and previous incarceration. These findings provide evidence for a syndemic of co-occurring psychosocial and health problems in young transgender women, taking place in a context of social marginalization.

  8. Nevanlinna theory

    CERN Document Server

    Kodaira, Kunihiko

    2017-01-01

    This book deals with the classical theory of Nevanlinna on the value distribution of meromorphic functions of one complex variable, based on minimum prerequisites for complex manifolds. The theory was extended to several variables by S. Kobayashi, T. Ochiai, J. Carleson, and P. Griffiths in the early 1970s. K. Kodaira took up this subject in his course at The University of Tokyo in 1973 and gave an introductory account of this development in the context of his final paper, contained in this book. The first three chapters are devoted to holomorphic mappings from C to complex manifolds. In the fourth chapter, holomorphic mappings between higher dimensional manifolds are covered. The book is a valuable treatise on the Nevanlinna theory, of special interests to those who want to understand Kodaira's unique approach to basic questions on complex manifolds.

  9. Gauge theories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kenyon, I.R.

    1986-01-01

    Modern theories of the interactions between fundamental particles are all gauge theories. In the case of gravitation, application of this principle to space-time leads to Einstein's theory of general relativity. All the other interactions involve the application of the gauge principle to internal spaces. Electromagnetism serves to introduce the idea of a gauge field, in this case the electromagnetic field. The next example, the strong force, shows unique features at long and short range which have their origin in the self-coupling of the gauge fields. Finally the unification of the description of the superficially dissimilar electromagnetic and weak nuclear forces completes the picture of successes of the gauge principle. (author)

  10. Globalization theories of crime

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kostić Miomira

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The process of globalization is affecting all areas of social life, and thus no exception crime. Its effect is most evident in the development of new forms of crime that transcends national borders and states receive a supranational character. This primarily refers to the various forms of organized crime, but also in certain of its forms, which are a kind of state violence and the consequences of which are reflected in the systematic violation of human rights. Also, the process of globalization of crime has caused the formation of international organizations aimed at combating of crime which transcends national boundaries. New forms of crime are conditioned by globalization demanded a new approach to their study. Existing criminological theories have proven inadequate in explaining all the causes that lead to crime. It was necessary to create new theories and new doctrines about the causes of crime. In the continuous process of development of criminology, in constant search for new explanations of the causes of crime, within the sociological theories have emerged and globalization theories of criminality, which the authors in their work special attention. The focus of the globalization theory on crime just on its prevention, to reduce the risk of its occurrence. This is certainly a positive step because it shifts the focus of criminologists with immediate causes of crime and focus on the study of their interactions, which is largely socially conditioned, which is especially prominent in the work. The aim of this paper is to point out that globalization theories should not be viewed in isolation from other criminological theories and doctrines, but that one, although relatively new, contribute to the creation of complete systems of criminological doctrines in order to find the optimal social response to crime.

  11. Galois theory

    CERN Document Server

    Stewart, Ian

    2003-01-01

    Ian Stewart's Galois Theory has been in print for 30 years. Resoundingly popular, it still serves its purpose exceedingly well. Yet mathematics education has changed considerably since 1973, when theory took precedence over examples, and the time has come to bring this presentation in line with more modern approaches.To this end, the story now begins with polynomials over the complex numbers, and the central quest is to understand when such polynomials have solutions that can be expressed by radicals. Reorganization of the material places the concrete before the abstract, thus motivating the g

  12. Scattering theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sitenko, A.

    1991-01-01

    This book emerged out of graduate lectures given by the author at the University of Kiev and is intended as a graduate text. The fundamentals of non-relativistic quantum scattering theory are covered, including some topics, such as the phase-function formalism, separable potentials, and inverse scattering, which are not always coverded in textbooks on scattering theory. Criticisms of the text are minor, but the reviewer feels an inadequate index is provided and the citing of references in the Russian language is a hindrance in a graduate text

  13. Risk Probabilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rojas-Nandayapa, Leonardo

    Tail probabilities of sums of heavy-tailed random variables are of a major importance in various branches of Applied Probability, such as Risk Theory, Queueing Theory, Financial Management, and are subject to intense research nowadays. To understand their relevance one just needs to think...... analytic expression for the distribution function of a sum of random variables. The presence of heavy-tailed random variables complicates the problem even more. The objective of this dissertation is to provide better approximations by means of sharp asymptotic expressions and Monte Carlo estimators...

  14. Leadership Theories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sferra, Bobbie A.; Paddock, Susan C.

    This booklet describes various theoretical aspects of leadership, including the proper exercise of authority, effective delegation, goal setting, exercise of control, assignment of responsibility, performance evaluation, and group process facilitation. It begins by describing the evolution of general theories of leadership from historic concepts…

  15. Combinatorial Theory

    CERN Document Server

    Hall, Marshall

    2011-01-01

    Includes proof of van der Waerden's 1926 conjecture on permanents, Wilson's theorem on asymptotic existence, and other developments in combinatorics since 1967. Also covers coding theory and its important connection with designs, problems of enumeration, and partition. Presents fundamentals in addition to latest advances, with illustrative problems at the end of each chapter. Enlarged appendixes include a longer list of block designs.

  16. Control Theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toso, Robert B.

    2000-01-01

    Inspired by William Glasser's Reality Therapy ideas, Control Theory (CT) is a disciplinary approach that stresses people's ability to control only their own behavior, based on internal motivations to satisfy five basic needs. At one North Dakota high school, CT-trained teachers are the program's best recruiters. (MLH)

  17. Framing theory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Vreese, C.H.; Lecheler, S.; Mazzoleni, G.; Barnhurst, K.G.; Ikeda, K.; Maia, R.C.M.; Wessler, H.

    2016-01-01

    Political issues can be viewed from different perspectives and they can be defined differently in the news media by emphasizing some aspects and leaving others aside. This is at the core of news framing theory. Framing originates within sociology and psychology and has become one of the most used

  18. Electricity Theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gong, Ha Soung

    2006-12-01

    The text book composed of five parts, which are summary of this book, arrangement of electricity theory including electricity nad magnetism, a direct current, and alternating current. It has two dictionary electricity terms for a synonym. The last is an appendix. It is for preparing for test of officer, electricity engineer and fire fighting engineer.

  19. Theory U

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Monthoux, Pierre Guillet de; Statler, Matt

    2014-01-01

    The recent Carnegie report (Colby, et al., 2011) characterizes the goal of business education as the development of practical wisdom. In this chapter, the authors reframe Scharmer’s Theory U as an attempt to develop practical wisdom by applying certain European philosophical concepts. Specifically...

  20. Theory U

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Guillet de Monthoux, Pierre; Statler, Matt

    2017-01-01

    The recent Carnegie report (Colby, et al., 2011) characterizes the goal of business education as the development of practical wisdom. In this chapter, the authors reframe Scharmer's Theory U as an attempt to develop practical wisdom by applying certain European philosophical concepts. Specifically...

  1. Theory summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tang, W.M.

    2001-01-01

    This is a summary of the advances in magnetic fusion energy theory research presented at the 17th International Atomic Energy Agency Fusion Energy Conference from 19 24 October, 1998 in Yokohama, Japan. Theory and simulation results from this conference provided encouraging evidence of significant progress in understanding the physics of thermonuclear plasmas. Indeed, the grand challenge for this field is to acquire the basic understanding that can readily enable the innovations which would make fusion energy practical. In this sense, research in fusion energy is increasingly able to be categorized as fitting well the 'Pasteur's Quadrant' paradigm, where the research strongly couples basic science ('Bohr's Quadrant') to technological impact ('Edison's Quadrant'). As supported by some of the work presented at this conference, this trend will be further enhanced by advanced simulations. Eventually, realistic three-dimensional modeling capabilities, when properly combined with rapid and complete data interpretation of results from both experiments and simulations, can contribute to a greatly enhanced cycle of understanding and innovation. Plasma science theory and simulation have provided reliable foundations for this improved modeling capability, and the exciting advances in high-performance computational resources have further accelerated progress. There were 68 papers presented at this conference in the area of magnetic fusion energy theory

  2. Communication Theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penland, Patrick R.

    Three papers are presented which delineate the foundation of theory and principles which underlie the research and instructional approach to communications at the Graduate School of Library and Information Science, University of Pittsburgh. Cybernetic principles provide the integration, and validation is based in part on a situation-producing…

  3. Complexity Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, William H K.

    2016-01-01

    A complex system consists of many interacting parts, generates new collective behavior through self organization, and adaptively evolves through time. Many theories have been developed to study complex systems, including chaos, fractals, cellular automata, self organization, stochastic processes, turbulence, and genetic algorithms.

  4. Matching theory

    CERN Document Server

    Plummer, MD

    1986-01-01

    This study of matching theory deals with bipartite matching, network flows, and presents fundamental results for the non-bipartite case. It goes on to study elementary bipartite graphs and elementary graphs in general. Further discussed are 2-matchings, general matching problems as linear programs, the Edmonds Matching Algorithm (and other algorithmic approaches), f-factors and vertex packing.

  5. Activity Theory

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bertelsen, Olav Wedege; Bødker, Susanne

    2003-01-01

    the young HCI research tradition. But HCI was already facing problems: lack of consideration for other aspects of human behavior, for interaction with other people, for culture. Cognitive science-based theories lacked means to address several issues that came out of the empirical projects....

  6. Subjective Illness theory and coping

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gessmann H.-W.

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The article presents a view of a problem of subjective illness theory in context of coping behavior. The article compiles the results of the latest studies of coping; discloses the way subjective illness theory affects the illness coping and patient's health; presents the study of differences in coping behaviour of patients at risk of heart attack and oncology. The article is recommended for specialists, concerned with psychological reasons of pathogenic processes and coping strategies of patients.

  7. Accelerating risk reduction in Kathmandu Valley, Nepal: Theory-based mass-media intervention proven to increase knowledge of, belief in, and intent to support earthquake-resistant construction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanquini, A.; Thapaliya, S. M.; Wood, M. M.; Hilley, G. E.

    2015-12-01

    Motivating people in rapidly urbanizing areas to take protective actions against natural disasters faces the challenge that these people often do not know what actions to take, do not believe that such actions are effective, and/or believe that the disaster will not happen to them within their lifetimes. Thus, finding demonstrated ways of motivating people to take protective action likely constitutes a grand challenge for natural disaster risk reduction and resiliency, because it may be one of the largest, lowest-cost sources of potential risk reduction in these situations. We developed a theory-based documentary film (hereafter, intervention) targeted at motivating retrofits of local school buildings, and tested its effectiveness in Kathmandu, Nepal, using a matched-pair clustered randomized controlled trial. The intervention features Nepalese who have strengthened their school buildings as role models to others at schools still in need of seismic work. It was tested at 16 Kathmandu Valley schools from November 2014 through March 2015. Schools were matched into 8 pairs, then randomly assigned to see either the intervention film or an attention placebo control film on an unrelated topic. Testing was completed just five weeks before the M 7.8 Gorkha earthquake struck central Nepal. When compared to the control schools, the schools whose community members saw the retrofit intervention film increased their knowledge of specific actions to take in support of earthquake-resistant construction, belief in the feasibility of making buildings earthquake-resistant, willingness to support seismic strengthening of the local school building, and likelihood to recommend to others that they build earthquake-resistant homes, which have all been shown to be precursors to taking self-protective action. This suggests that employing a mass-media intervention featuring community members who have already taken the desired action increases factors that may accelerate adoption of risk

  8. Communication theory

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stein, Irene F.; Stelter, Reinhard

    2011-01-01

    Communication theory covers a wide variety of theories related to the communication process (Littlejohn, 1999). Communication is not simply an exchange of information, in which we have a sender and a receiver. This very technical concept of communication is clearly outdated; a human being...... is not a data processing device. In this chapter, communication is understood as a process of shared meaning-making (Bruner, 1990). Human beings interpret their environment, other people, and themselves on the basis of their dynamic interaction with the surrounding world. Meaning is essential because people...... ascribe specific meanings to their experiences, their actions in life or work, and their interactions. Meaning is reshaped, adapted, and transformed in every communication encounter. Furthermore, meaning is cocreated in dialogues or in communities of practice, such as in teams at a workplace or in school...

  9. Operator theory

    CERN Document Server

    2015-01-01

    A one-sentence definition of operator theory could be: The study of (linear) continuous operations between topological vector spaces, these being in general (but not exclusively) Fréchet, Banach, or Hilbert spaces (or their duals). Operator theory is thus a very wide field, with numerous facets, both applied and theoretical. There are deep connections with complex analysis, functional analysis, mathematical physics, and electrical engineering, to name a few. Fascinating new applications and directions regularly appear, such as operator spaces, free probability, and applications to Clifford analysis. In our choice of the sections, we tried to reflect this diversity. This is a dynamic ongoing project, and more sections are planned, to complete the picture. We hope you enjoy the reading, and profit from this endeavor.

  10. Potential theory

    CERN Document Server

    Helms, Lester L

    2014-01-01

    Potential Theory presents a clear path from calculus to classical potential theory and beyond, with the aim of moving the reader into the area of mathematical research as quickly as possible. The subject matter is developed from first principles using only calculus. Commencing with the inverse square law for gravitational and electromagnetic forces and the divergence theorem, the author develops methods for constructing solutions of Laplace's equation on a region with prescribed values on the boundary of the region. The latter half of the book addresses more advanced material aimed at those with the background of a senior undergraduate or beginning graduate course in real analysis. Starting with solutions of the Dirichlet problem subject to mixed boundary conditions on the simplest of regions, methods of morphing such solutions onto solutions of Poisson's equation on more general regions are developed using diffeomorphisms and the Perron-Wiener-Brelot method, culminating in application to Brownian motion. In ...

  11. Practical theories

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Klaus Bruhn

    2016-01-01

    This article revisits the place of normative and other practical issues in the wider conceptual architecture of communication theory, building on the tradition of philosophical pragmatism. The article first characterizes everyday concepts of communication as the accumulated outcome of natural...... evolution and history: practical resources for human existence and social coexistence. Such practical concepts have served as the point of departure for diverse theoretical conceptions of what communication is. The second part of the article highlights the past neglect and current potential of normative...... communication theories that ask, in addition, what communication ought to be, and what it could be, taking the relationship between communication and justice as a case in point. The final section returns to empirical conceptualizations of different institutions, practices and discourses of communication...

  12. Gauge theories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jarlskog, C.

    An introduction to the unified gauge theories of weak and electromagnetic interactions is given. The ingredients of gauge theories and symmetries and conservation laws lead to discussion of local gauge invariance and QED, followed by weak interactions and quantum flavor dynamics. The construction of the standard SU(2)xU(1) model precedes discussion of the unification of weak and electromagnetic interactions and weak neutral current couplings in this model. Presentation of spontaneous symmetry breaking and spontaneous breaking of a local symmetry leads to a spontaneous breaking scheme for the standard SU(2)xU(1) model. Consideration of quarks, leptons, masses and the Cabibbo angles, of the four quark and six quark models and CP violation lead finally to grand unification, followed by discussion of mixing angles in the Georgi-Glashow model, the Higgses of the SU(5) model and proton/ neutron decay in SU(5). (JIW)

  13. Twistor theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perjes, Z.

    1982-01-01

    Particle models in twistor theory are reviewed, starting with an introduction into the kinematical-twistor formalism which describes massive particles in Minkowski space-time. The internal transformations of constituent twistors are then discussed. The quantization rules available from a study of twistor scattering situations are used to construct quantum models of fundamental particles. The theory allows the introduction of an internal space with a Kaehlerian metric where hadron structure is described by spherical states of bound constituents. It is conjectured that the spectrum of successive families of hadrons might approach an accumulation point in energy. Above this threshold energy, the Kaehlerian analog of ionization could occur wherein the zero-mass constituents (twistors) of the particle break free. (Auth.)

  14. Biocultural Theory

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Carroll, Joseph; Clasen, Mathias; Jonsson, Emelie

    2017-01-01

    Biocultural theory is an integrative research program designed to investigate the causal interactions between biological adaptations and cultural constructions. From the biocultural perspective, cultural processes are rooted in the biological necessities of the human life cycle: specifically human...... of research as contributions to a coherent, collective research program. This article argues that a mature biocultural paradigm needs to be informed by at least 7 major research clusters: (a) gene-culture coevolution; (b) human life history theory; (c) evolutionary social psychology; (d) anthropological...... forms of birth, growth, survival, mating, parenting, and sociality. Conversely, from the biocultural perspective, human biological processes are constrained, organized, and developed by culture, which includes technology, culturally specific socioeconomic and political structures, religious...

  15. Computability theory

    CERN Document Server

    Weber, Rebecca

    2012-01-01

    What can we compute--even with unlimited resources? Is everything within reach? Or are computations necessarily drastically limited, not just in practice, but theoretically? These questions are at the heart of computability theory. The goal of this book is to give the reader a firm grounding in the fundamentals of computability theory and an overview of currently active areas of research, such as reverse mathematics and algorithmic randomness. Turing machines and partial recursive functions are explored in detail, and vital tools and concepts including coding, uniformity, and diagonalization are described explicitly. From there the material continues with universal machines, the halting problem, parametrization and the recursion theorem, and thence to computability for sets, enumerability, and Turing reduction and degrees. A few more advanced topics round out the book before the chapter on areas of research. The text is designed to be self-contained, with an entire chapter of preliminary material including re...

  16. Elastoplasticity theory

    CERN Document Server

    Hashiguchi, Koichi

    2014-01-01

    This book was written to serve as the standard textbook of elastoplasticity for students, engineers and researchers in the field of applied mechanics. The present second edition is improved thoroughly from the first edition by selecting the standard theories from various formulations and models, which are required to study the essentials of elastoplasticity steadily and effectively and will remain universally in the history of elastoplasticity. It opens with an explanation of vector-tensor analysis and continuum mechanics as a foundation to study elastoplasticity theory, extending over various strain and stress tensors and their rates. Subsequently, constitutive equations of elastoplastic and viscoplastic deformations for monotonic, cyclic and non-proportional loading behavior in a general rate and their applications to metals and soils are described in detail, and constitutive equations of friction behavior between solids and its application to the prediction of stick-slip phenomena are delineated. In additi...

  17. Livability theory

    OpenAIRE

    Veenhoven, Ruut

    2014-01-01

    markdownabstract__Abstract__ Assumptions Livability theory involves the following six key assumptions: 1. Like all animals, humans have innate needs, such as for food, safety, and companionship. 2. Gratification of needs manifests in hedonic experience. 3. Hedonic experience determines how much we like the life we live (happiness). Hence, happiness depends on need gratification. 4.Need gratification depends on both external living conditions and inner abilities to use these. Hence, bad living...

  18. Testing theories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Casten, R F

    2015-01-01

    This paper discusses some simple issues that arise in testing models, with a focus on models for low energy nuclear structure. By way of simplified examples, we illustrate some dangers in blind statistical assessments, pointing out especially the need to include theoretical uncertainties, the danger of over-weighting precise or physically redundant experimental results, the need to assess competing theories with independent and physically sensitive observables, and the value of statistical tests properly evaluated. (paper)

  19. Graph theory

    CERN Document Server

    Diestel, Reinhard

    2017-01-01

    This standard textbook of modern graph theory, now in its fifth edition, combines the authority of a classic with the engaging freshness of style that is the hallmark of active mathematics. It covers the core material of the subject with concise yet reliably complete proofs, while offering glimpses of more advanced methods in each field by one or two deeper results, again with proofs given in full detail. The book can be used as a reliable text for an introductory course, as a graduate text, and for self-study. From the reviews: “This outstanding book cannot be substituted with any other book on the present textbook market. It has every chance of becoming the standard textbook for graph theory.”Acta Scientiarum Mathematiciarum “Deep, clear, wonderful. This is a serious book about the heart of graph theory. It has depth and integrity. ”Persi Diaconis & Ron Graham, SIAM Review “The book has received a very enthusiastic reception, which it amply deserves. A masterly elucidation of modern graph theo...

  20. Scattering theory

    CERN Document Server

    Friedrich, Harald

    2016-01-01

    This corrected and updated second edition of "Scattering Theory" presents a concise and modern coverage of the subject. In the present treatment, special attention is given to the role played by the long-range behaviour of the projectile-target interaction, and a theory is developed, which is well suited to describe near-threshold bound and continuum states in realistic binary systems such as diatomic molecules or molecular ions. It is motivated by the fact that experimental advances have shifted and broadened the scope of applications where concepts from scattering theory are used, e.g. to the field of ultracold atoms and molecules, which has been experiencing enormous growth in recent years, largely triggered by the successful realization of Bose-Einstein condensates of dilute atomic gases in 1995. The book contains sections on special topics such as near-threshold quantization, quantum reflection, Feshbach resonances and the quantum description of scattering in two dimensions. The level of abstraction is k...

  1. "Utilizing" signal detection theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lynn, Spencer K; Barrett, Lisa Feldman

    2014-09-01

    What do inferring what a person is thinking or feeling, judging a defendant's guilt, and navigating a dimly lit room have in common? They involve perceptual uncertainty (e.g., a scowling face might indicate anger or concentration, for which different responses are appropriate) and behavioral risk (e.g., a cost to making the wrong response). Signal detection theory describes these types of decisions. In this tutorial, we show how incorporating the economic concept of utility allows signal detection theory to serve as a model of optimal decision making, going beyond its common use as an analytic method. This utility approach to signal detection theory clarifies otherwise enigmatic influences of perceptual uncertainty on measures of decision-making performance (accuracy and optimality) and on behavior (an inverse relationship between bias magnitude and sensitivity optimizes utility). A "utilized" signal detection theory offers the possibility of expanding the phenomena that can be understood within a decision-making framework. © The Author(s) 2014.

  2. Modelul Big Five al personalitătii: abordări teoretice şi modelarea empirică a unui chestionar standardizat

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandra Macarie

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the present study was designing a local standardized questionnaire for evaluating traits of personality, following the Big Five model. The questionnaire was built for applying in organizations and to resist social desirability. The theoretical background used in the construction of the questionnaire were part of the Big Five model for personality evaluation. The methods used in this study were specific to the construction and primary validation of a questionnaire: defining the factors, designing the items, verifying the content validity (expert testing. The constructed questionnaire was completed by 524 subjects from the general population. The results confirm the existence of five personality factors, as defined by the authors: sociability, incertitude, persistance, altruism and openness. These factors correspond to the 5 factors described in speciality literature. The study also analyzed the relations the five factors have with significant traits of personality measured by other psychological questionnaires which were applied along with our questionnaire (introversion - extraversion, emotional stability - neuroticism, originality, efficiency, conformism. We also described the differences between the scores for the five factors depending on age, gender, studies and income.

  3. Risk assessment terminology: risk communication part 1

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gaetano Liuzzo

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The paper describes the terminology of risk communication in the view of food safety: the theory of stakeholders, the citizens’ involvement and the community interest and consultation are reported. Different aspects of risk communication (public communication, scientific uncertainty, trust, care, consensus and crisis communication are discussed.

  4. On risks and acceptability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Watson, S.R.

    1981-01-01

    A very attractive notion is that it should be possible not only to determine how much risk is associated with any particular activity, but also to determine if that risk is acceptable. Stated boldly this seems an entirely unobjectionable and indeed a very acceptable notion. There is, however, underlying this idea, a mistaken view of risk which we might refer to as the ''phlogiston'' theory of risk. In this paper, presented at the SRP meeting on Ethical and Legal Aspects of Radiological Protection, the phlogiston theory of risk is described; secondly, it will be argued that it is too simple a theory to be realistic or useful; and thirdly, the management of risk will be placed in a wider decision framework. Acceptability, it will be argued is highly dependent on context, and it is not possible, therefore, to lay down generally applicable notions of acceptability. (author)

  5. Comparison of a theory-based (AIDS Risk Reduction Model) cognitive behavioral intervention versus enhanced counseling for abused ethnic minority adolescent women on infection with sexually transmitted infection: results of a randomized controlled trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Champion, Jane Dimmitt; Collins, Jennifer L

    2012-02-01

    Ethnic minority adolescent women with a history of sexual or physical abuse and sexually transmitted infections represent a vulnerable population at risk for HIV. Community-based interventions for behavior modification and subsequent risk reduction have not been effective among these women. To evaluate the effects of a theory-based (AIDS Risk Reduction Model) cognitive behavioral intervention model versus enhanced counseling for abused ethnic minority adolescent women on infection with sexually transmitted infection at 6 and 12 months follow-up. Controlled randomized trial with longitudinal follow-up. Southwestern United States, Metropolitan community-based clinic. Mexican-and-African American adolescent women aged 14-18 years with a history of abuse or sexually transmitted infection seeking sexual health care. Extensive preliminary study for intervention development was conducted including individual interviews, focus groups, secondary data analysis, pre-testing and feasibility testing for modification of an evidence-based intervention prior to testing in the randomized controlled trial. Following informed consents for participation in the trial, detailed interviews concerning demographics, abuse history, sexual risk behavior, sexual health and physical exams were obtained. Randomization into either control or intervention groups was conducted. Intervention participants received workshop, support group and individual counseling sessions. Control participants received abuse and enhanced clinical counseling. Follow-up including detailed interview and physical exam was conducted at 6 and 12 months following study entry to assess for infection. Intention to treat analysis was conducted to assess intervention effects using chi-square and multiple regression models. 409 Mexican-(n=342) and African-(n=67) American adolescent women with abuse and sexually transmitted infection histories were enrolled; 90% intervention group attendance; longitudinal follow-up at 6 (93

  6. Biological effect and tumor risk of diagnostic x-rays. The ''war of the theories''; Biologische Wirkung und Tumorrisiko diagnostischer Roentgenstrahlen. Der ''Krieg der Modelle''

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Selzer, E.; Hebar, A. [Medizinische Universitaet Wien, Abteilung fuer Strahlenbiologie, Klinik fuer Strahlentherapie, Wien (Austria)

    2012-10-15

    Since the introduction of ionizing radiation as a treatment and diagnostic tool in humans, scientists have been trying to estimate its side effects and potential health risks. There is now ample evidence for the principal existence of a direct relationship between higher doses and the risks of side effects. Most of the uncertainties lie in the field of low-dose effects especially with respect to the risk of cancer induction. Low-dose effects are usually of relevance in diagnostic medicine while high-dose radiation effects are typically observed after radiotherapeutic treatment for cancer or after nuclear accidents. The current state of the ''war of theories'' may be summarized as follows: one group of scientists and health regulatory officials favors the hypothesis that there is no threshold dose, i.e. the linear-no-threshold hypothesis (LNT) of radiation which can be regarded as safe. On the contrary, the critics of this hypothesis suggest that the risks of doses below 50 mSv are not measurable or even of clinical relevance and are not adequately described by a linear dose-response relationship. The aim of this article is to summarize the major unresolved issues in this field. Arguments are presented why the validity of the LNT model in the low-dose range should be regarded as at least inconsistent and is thus questionable. (orig.) [German] Seit der Einfuehrung ionisierender Strahlen als ein Mittel zur Behandlung und Diagnose beim Menschen haben Wissenschaftler versucht, ihre Nebenwirkungen und potenziellen Risiken fuer die Gesundheit einzuschaetzen. Es gibt nun ausreichende Evidenz fuer das grundsaetzliche Vorliegen einer direkten Beziehung zwischen hoeheren Dosen und Nebenwirkungsrisiken. Die meisten Unsicherheiten liegen auf dem Gebiet der Niedrigdosisforschung v. a. im Hinblick auf das Risiko der Induktion von Krebs. Niedrigdosiseffekte sind ueblicherweise von Bedeutung in der diagnostischen Medizin, waehrend Hochdosisbestrahlungseffekte

  7. Communication theory

    CERN Document Server

    Goldie, Charles M

    1991-01-01

    This book is an introduction, for mathematics students, to the theories of information and codes. They are usually treated separately but, as both address the problem of communication through noisy channels (albeit from different directions), the authors have been able to exploit the connection to give a reasonably self-contained treatment, relating the probabilistic and algebraic viewpoints. The style is discursive and, as befits the subject, plenty of examples and exercises are provided. Some examples and exercises are provided. Some examples of computer codes are given to provide concrete illustrations of abstract ideas.

  8. Design theory

    CERN Document Server

    2009-01-01

    This book deals with the basic subjects of design theory. It begins with balanced incomplete block designs, various constructions of which are described in ample detail. In particular, finite projective and affine planes, difference sets and Hadamard matrices, as tools to construct balanced incomplete block designs, are included. Orthogonal latin squares are also treated in detail. Zhu's simpler proof of the falsity of Euler's conjecture is included. The construction of some classes of balanced incomplete block designs, such as Steiner triple systems and Kirkman triple systems, are also given.

  9. International business theory and marketing theory

    OpenAIRE

    Soldner, Helmut

    1984-01-01

    International business theory and marketing theory : elements for internat. marketing theory building. - In: Marketing aspects of international business / Gerald M. Hampton ... (eds.). - Boston u.a. : Kluwer, 1984. - S. 25-57

  10. Some Links Between Game Theory and Decision Theory in Economics

    OpenAIRE

    Dominika Crnjac; Goran Martinovic

    2009-01-01

    Certain optimal strategies based upon game theory are given in this paper. A decision-making function and a risk function are explained. Decision-making criteria are applied for determining best decision-making functions with respect to a specific criterion. Special attention is given to the minimax criterion.

  11. Options theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Markland, J.T.

    1992-01-01

    Techniques used in conventional project appraisal are mathematically very simple in comparison to those used in reservoir modelling, and in the geosciences. Clearly it would be possible to value assets in mathematically more sophisticated ways if it were meaningful and worthwhile so to do. The DCf approach in common use has recognized limitations; the inability to select a meaningful discount rate being particularly significant. Financial Theory has advanced enormously over the last few years, along with computational techniques, and methods are beginning to appear which may change the way we do project evaluations in practice. The starting point for all of this was a paper by Black and Scholes, which asserts that almost all corporate liabilities can be viewed as options of varying degrees of complexity. Although the financial presentation may be unfamiliar to engineers and geoscientists, some of the concepts used will not be. This paper outlines, in plain English, the basis of option pricing theory for assessing the market value of a project. it also attempts to assess the future role of this type of approach in practical Petroleum Exploration and Engineering economics. Reference is made to relevant published Natural Resource literature

  12. Analyzing Test-Taking Behavior: Decision Theory Meets Psychometric Theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Budescu, David V; Bo, Yuanchao

    2015-12-01

    We investigate the implications of penalizing incorrect answers to multiple-choice tests, from the perspective of both test-takers and test-makers. To do so, we use a model that combines a well-known item response theory model with prospect theory (Kahneman and Tversky, Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk, Econometrica 47:263-91, 1979). Our results reveal that when test-takers are fully informed of the scoring rule, the use of any penalty has detrimental effects for both test-takers (they are always penalized in excess, particularly those who are risk averse and loss averse) and test-makers (the bias of the estimated scores, as well as the variance and skewness of their distribution, increase as a function of the severity of the penalty).

  13. A philosophical assessment of decision theory

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Karsten Klint

    2012-01-01

    modern axiomatic decision theory is an instance of fundamental measurement theory. This is then followed by a thorough introduction to Savage’s version of modern axiomatic decision theory. Turning to the interpretation of the theory, the maxim “maximize expected utility,” which stems from classical...... assignments. In the modern approach, the action guidance is to conform to the axioms. Analyzing decision theory as a theory of good, the maxim “maximize expected goodness” repeats the misunderstanding. Moreover, it implies risk neutrality about good and a cardinal measure of good, and both are problematic......The significance of decision theory consists of giving an account of rational decision making under circumstances of uncertainty. This question is important both from the point of view of what is in our personal interest and from the point of view of what is ethically right. But decision theory...

  14. Risk in International Business

    OpenAIRE

    Canavan, Deirdre; Sharkey Scott, Pamela

    2012-01-01

    Risk in international business can stress risk adverse behaviour to counteract foreign market uncertainty or individual entrepreneurial risk taking behaviour dependent on the characteristics of both the business sector and the individual. International business theory would suggest that the perception of risk may differ in situations including where new market entry is incremental, is taken in larger or earlier stages, or indeed whether it may be experienced in a continually fluctuating manne...

  15. Priorities and prospect theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Happich, M; Mazurek, B

    2002-01-01

    Whose preferences are to be used for cost-effectiveness analysis? It has been recommended that community preferences for health states are the most appropriate ones for use in a reference case analysis. However, critics maintain that persons are not able properly to judge a health state if they have not experienced the condition themselves. This problem is analyzed here in the framework of Prospect Theory. It can be argued that the differing reference points of patients and the general public are responsible for deviating results. In addition, we argue that risk attitudes with respect to health-related quality of life are an indicator of reference points. If patients and the general public refer to the same reference point, i.e., they have the same risk attitude, the hypothesis is that deviations no longer significantly differ. Evaluations of the health condition of tinnitus by 210 patients and 210 unaffected persons were compared. The Time Tradeoff and Standard Gamble methods were applied to elicit preferences. Risk attitude was measured with the question of whether participants would undergo a treatment that could either improve or worsen their health condition, both with an equal chance (five possible answers between "in no case" and "in any case"). Affected persons indicated significantly higher values for tinnitus-related quality of life according to the Standard Gamble method. The difference between Time Tradeoff values was less dramatic but still significant. In addition, nonaffected persons are more risk-averse than affected persons. However, differences in evaluations are not significant considering single risk groups (e.g., those who answered "in no case"). Prospect Theory is a reasonable framework for considering the question of whose preferences count. If this result can be generalized for other diseases as well, it allows the mathematical combination of "objective" evaluations by the general public with the illness experience of patients. These

  16. Electric theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gong, Ha Seong

    2006-02-01

    This book explains electric theory which is divided into four chapters. The first chapter includes electricity and material, electric field, capacitance, magnetic field and electromagnetic force, inductance. The second chapter mentions electronic circuit analysis, electric resistance,heating and power, chemical activity on current and battery with electrolysis. The third chapter deals with an alternating current circuit about the basics of an AC circuit, operating of resistance, inductance and capacitance, series circuit and parallel circuit of PLC, an alternating current circuit, Three-phase Alternating current, two terminal pair network and voltage and current of non-linearity circuit. The last explains transient phenomena of RC series circuit, RL series circuit, transient phenomena of an alternating current circuit and transient phenomena of RLC series circuit.

  17. Sustainablegrowth theories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nobile, G.

    1993-07-01

    With reference to highly debated sustainable growth strategies to counter pressing interrelated global environmental and socio-economic problems, this paper reviews economic and resource development theories proposed by classical and neoclassical economists. The review evidences the growing debate among public administration decision makers regarding appropriate methods to assess the worth of natural resources and ecosystems. Proposed methods tend to be biased either towards environmental protection or economic development. Two major difficulties in the effective implementation of sustainable growth strategies are also evidenced - the management of such strategies would require appropriate revisions to national accounting systems, and the dynamic flow of energy and materials between an economic system and the environment would generate a sequence of unstable structures evolving in a chaotic and unpredictable way

  18. A Future of Communication Theory: Systems Theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindsey, Georg N.

    Concepts of general systems theory, cybernetics and the like may provide the methodology for communication theory to move from a level of technology to a level of pure science. It was the purpose of this paper to (1) demonstrate the necessity of applying systems theory to the construction of communication theory, (2) review relevant systems…

  19. Modern Portfolio Theory: Some Main Results

    OpenAIRE

    Müller, Heinz H.

    2017-01-01

    This article summarizes some main results in modern portfolio theory. First, the Markowitz approach is presented. Then the capital asset pricing model is derived and its empirical testability is discussed. Afterwards Neumann-Morgenstern utility theory is applied to the portfolio problem. Finally, it is shown how optimal risk allocation in an economy may lead to portfolio insurance

  20. Rate theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maillard, S.; Skorek, R.; Maugis, P.; Dumont, M.

    2015-01-01

    This chapter presents the basic principles of cluster dynamics as a particular case of mesoscopic rate theory models developed to investigate fuel behaviour under irradiation such as in UO 2 . It is shown that as this method simulates the evolution of the concentration of every type of point or aggregated defect in a grain of material. It produces rich information that sheds light on the mechanisms involved in microstructure evolution and gas behaviour that are not accessible through conventional models but yet can provide for improvements in those models. Cluster dynamics parameters are mainly the energetic values governing the basic evolution mechanisms of the material (diffusion, trapping and thermal resolution). In this sense, the model has a general applicability to very different operational situations (irradiation, ion-beam implantation, annealing) provided that they rely on the same basic mechanisms, without requiring additional data fitting, as is required for more empirical conventional models. This technique, when applied to krypton implanted and annealed samples, yields a precise interpretation of the release curves and helps assess migration mechanisms and the krypton diffusion coefficient, for which data is very difficult to obtain due to the low solubility of the gas. (authors)

  1. Vocation in theology-based nursing theories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lundmark, Mikael

    2007-11-01

    By using the concepts of intrinsicality/extrinsicality as analytic tools, the theology-based nursing theories of Ann Bradshaw and Katie Eriksson are analyzed regarding their explicit and/or implicit understanding of vocation as a motivational factor for nursing. The results show that both theories view intrinsic values as guarantees against reducing nursing practice to mechanistic applications of techniques and as being a way of reinforcing a high ethical standard. The theories explicitly (Bradshaw) or implicitly (Eriksson) advocate a vocational understanding of nursing as being essential for nursing theories. Eriksson's theory has a potential for conceptualizing an understanding of extrinsic and intrinsic motivational factors for nursing but one weakness in the theory could be the risk of slipping over to moral judgments where intrinsic factors are valued as being superior to extrinsic. Bradshaw's theory is more complex and explicit in understanding the concept of vocation and is theologically more plausible, although also more confessional.

  2. Balancing Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nygaard, Lene; Rossen, Camilla Blach; Buus, Niels

    2015-01-01

    This study explored how eight pregnant women diagnosed with depression managed the decision whether or not to take antidepressants during pregnancy. In total, 11 interviews were conducted and analysed by means of constructivist grounded theory. The major category constructed was Balancing risk......, with two minor categories: Assessing depression and antidepressants and Evaluating the impact of significant others. The participants tried to make the safest decision, taking all aspects of their life into consideration. They described successful decision-making in the context of managing social norms...

  3. AN EDUCATIONAL THEORY MODEL--(SIGGS), AN INTEGRATION OF SET THEORY, INFORMATION THEORY, AND GRAPH THEORY WITH GENERAL SYSTEMS THEORY.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MACCIA, ELIZABETH S.; AND OTHERS

    AN ANNOTATED BIBLIOGRAPHY OF 20 ITEMS AND A DISCUSSION OF ITS SIGNIFICANCE WAS PRESENTED TO DESCRIBE CURRENT UTILIZATION OF SUBJECT THEORIES IN THE CONSTRUCTION OF AN EDUCATIONAL THEORY. ALSO, A THEORY MODEL WAS USED TO DEMONSTRATE CONSTRUCTION OF A SCIENTIFIC EDUCATIONAL THEORY. THE THEORY MODEL INCORPORATED SET THEORY (S), INFORMATION THEORY…

  4. Entrepreneurs Facing Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zichella, Giulio; Reichstein, Toke

    to choose risk vis-à-vis certainty. Drawing on prospect theory, we formulate hypotheses about the greater likelihood that entrepreneurs (compared to others) will choose risk immediately after a positive gain, but will shy away from risk compared to others as the degree of risk increases. The hypotheses......Theory conjectures that entrepreneurs are more likely than others to make risky choices. However, the empirical evidence is mixed. This paper offers new insights into entrepreneurs’ tendencies to make risky choices, by investigating the circumstances in which entrepreneurs are more/less likely...... are tested using data collected in laboratory-based real money games experiments. We find support for our hypotheses, indicating that entrepreneurs’ bias towards risk is circumstantial. These results have fundamental implications for our understanding of factors guiding entrepreneurial choices under risk...

  5. Recursion Theory Week

    CERN Document Server

    Müller, Gert; Sacks, Gerald

    1990-01-01

    These proceedings contain research and survey papers from many subfields of recursion theory, with emphasis on degree theory, in particular the development of frameworks for current techniques in this field. Other topics covered include computational complexity theory, generalized recursion theory, proof theoretic questions in recursion theory, and recursive mathematics.

  6. K-theory and representation theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuku, A.O.

    2003-01-01

    This contribution includes K-theory of orders, group-rings and modules over EI categories, equivariant higher algebraic K-theory for finite, profinite and compact Lie group actions together with their relative generalisations and applications

  7. Prospect theory in the valuation of health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moffett, Maurice L; Suarez-Almazor, Maria E

    2005-08-01

    Prospect theory is the prominent nonexpected utility theory in the estimation of health state preference scores for quality-adjusted life year calculation. Until recently, the theory was not considered to be developed to the point of implementation in economic analysis. This review focuses on the research and evidence that tests the implementation of prospect theory into health state valuation. The typical application of expected utility theory assumes that a decision maker has stable preferences under conditions of risk and uncertainty. Under prospect theory, preferences are dependent on whether the decision maker regards the outcome of a choice as a gain or loss, relative to a reference point. The conceptual preference for standard gamble utilities in the valuation of health states has led to the development of elicitation techniques. Empirical evidence using these techniques indicates that when individual preferences are elicited, a prospect theory consistent framework appears to be necessary for adequate representation of individual health utilities. The relevance of prospect theory to policy making and resource allocation remains to be established. Societal preferences may not need the same attitudes towards risks as individual preferences, and may remain largely risk neutral.

  8. Gravity, general relativity theory and alternative theories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zel'dovich, Ya.B.; Grishchuk, L.P.; Moskovskij Gosudarstvennyj Univ.

    1986-01-01

    The main steps in plotting the current gravitation theory and some prospects of its subsequent development are reviewed. The attention is concentrated on a comparison of the relativistic gravitational field with other physical fields. Two equivalent formulations of the general relativity (GR) - geometrical and field-theoretical - are considered in detail. It is shown that some theories of gravity constructed as the field theories at a flat background space-time are in fact just different formulations of GR and not alternative theories

  9. Generalizability theory and item response theory

    OpenAIRE

    Glas, Cornelis A.W.; Eggen, T.J.H.M.; Veldkamp, B.P.

    2012-01-01

    Item response theory is usually applied to items with a selected-response format, such as multiple choice items, whereas generalizability theory is usually applied to constructed-response tasks assessed by raters. However, in many situations, raters may use rating scales consisting of items with a selected-response format. This chapter presents a short overview of how item response theory and generalizability theory were integrated to model such assessments. Further, the precision of the esti...

  10. String Theory and M-Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becker, Katrin; Becker, Melanie; Schwarz, John H.

    String theory is one of the most exciting and challenging areas of modern theoretical physics. This book guides the reader from the basics of string theory to recent developments. It introduces the basics of perturbative string theory, world-sheet supersymmetry, space-time supersymmetry, conformal field theory and the heterotic string, before describing modern developments, including D-branes, string dualities and M-theory. It then covers string geometry and flux compactifications, applications to cosmology and particle physics, black holes in string theory and M-theory, and the microscopic origin of black-hole entropy. It concludes with Matrix theory, the AdS/CFT duality and its generalizations. This book is ideal for graduate students and researchers in modern string theory, and will make an excellent textbook for a one-year course on string theory. It contains over 120 exercises with solutions, and over 200 homework problems with solutions available on a password protected website for lecturers at www.cambridge.org/9780521860697. Comprehensive coverage of topics from basics of string theory to recent developments Ideal textbook for a one-year course in string theory Includes over 100 exercises with solutions Contains over 200 homework problems with solutions available to lecturers on-line

  11. Risk Aversion, Price Uncertainty and Irreversible Investments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van den Goorbergh, R.W.J.; Huisman, K.J.M.; Kort, P.M.

    2003-01-01

    This paper generalizes the theory of irreversible investment under uncertainty by allowing for risk averse investors in the absence of com-plete markets.Until now this theory has only been developed in the cases of risk neutrality, or risk aversion in combination with complete markets.Within a

  12. Unitary field theories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bergmann, P.G.

    1980-01-01

    A problem of construction of the unitary field theory is discussed. The preconditions of the theory are briefly described. The main attention is paid to the geometrical interpretation of physical fields. The meaning of the conceptions of diversity and exfoliation is elucidated. Two unitary field theories are described: the Weyl conformic geometry and Calitzy five-dimensioned theory. It is proposed to consider supersymmetrical theories as a new approach to the problem of a unitary field theory. It is noted that the supergravitational theories are really unitary theories, since the fields figuring there do not assume invariant expansion

  13. Theory of thermal stresses

    CERN Document Server

    Boley, Bruno A

    1997-01-01

    Highly regarded text presents detailed discussion of fundamental aspects of theory, background, problems with detailed solutions. Basics of thermoelasticity, heat transfer theory, thermal stress analysis, more. 1985 edition.

  14. Elementary particle theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marciano, W.J.

    1984-12-01

    The present state of the art in elementary particle theory is reviewed. Topics include quantum electrodynamics, weak interactions, electroweak unification, quantum chromodynamics, and grand unified theories. 113 references

  15. Risk control and the minimum significant risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seiler, F.A.; Alvarez, J.L.

    1996-01-01

    Risk management implies that the risk manager can, by his actions, exercise at least a modicum of control over the risk in question. In the terminology of control theory, a management action is a control signal imposed as feedback on the system to bring about a desired change in the state of the system. In the terminology of risk management, an action is taken to bring a predicted risk to lower values. Even if it is assumed that the management action taken is 100% effective and that the projected risk reduction is infinitely well known, there is a lower limit to the desired effects that can be achieved. It is based on the fact that all risks, such as the incidence of cancer, exhibit a degree of variability due to a number of extraneous factors such as age at exposure, sex, location, and some lifestyle parameters such as smoking or the consumption of alcohol. If the control signal is much smaller than the variability of the risk, the signal is lost in the noise and control is lost. This defines a minimum controllable risk based on the variability of the risk over the population considered. This quantity is the counterpart of the minimum significant risk which is defined by the uncertainties of the risk model. Both the minimum controllable risk and the minimum significant risk are evaluated for radiation carcinogenesis and are shown to be of the same order of magnitude. For a realistic management action, the assumptions of perfectly effective action and perfect model prediction made above have to be dropped, resulting in an effective minimum controllable risk which is determined by both risk limits. Any action below that effective limit is futile, but it is also unethical due to the ethical requirement of doing more good than harm. Finally, some implications of the effective minimum controllable risk on the use of the ALARA principle and on the evaluation of remedial action goals are presented

  16. Trait-mediated trophic interactions: is foraging theory keeping up?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steven F. Railsback; Bret C. Harvey

    2013-01-01

    Many ecologists believe that there is a lack of foraging theory that works in community contexts, for populations of unique individuals each making trade-offs between food and risk that are subject to feedbacks from behavior of others. Such theory is necessary to reproduce the trait-mediated trophic interactions now recognized as widespread and strong. Game theory can...

  17. Local homotopy theory

    CERN Document Server

    Jardine, John F

    2015-01-01

    This monograph on the homotopy theory of topologized diagrams of spaces and spectra gives an expert account of a subject at the foundation of motivic homotopy theory and the theory of topological modular forms in stable homotopy theory. Beginning with an introduction to the homotopy theory of simplicial sets and topos theory, the book covers core topics such as the unstable homotopy theory of simplicial presheaves and sheaves, localized theories, cocycles, descent theory, non-abelian cohomology, stacks, and local stable homotopy theory. A detailed treatment of the formalism of the subject is interwoven with explanations of the motivation, development, and nuances of ideas and results. The coherence of the abstract theory is elucidated through the use of widely applicable tools, such as Barr's theorem on Boolean localization, model structures on the category of simplicial presheaves on a site, and cocycle categories. A wealth of concrete examples convey the vitality and importance of the subject in topology, n...

  18. Underground Economics for Vulnerability Risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Allodi, L.

    The estimation of vulnerability risk is at the core of any IT security management strategy. Among technical and infrastructural metrics of risk, attacker economics represent an emerging new aspect that several risk assessment methodologies propose to consider (e.g., based on game theory). Yet the

  19. Rationality, Theory Acceptance and Decision Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Nicolas Kaufmann

    1998-06-01

    Full Text Available Following Kuhn's main thesis according to which theory revision and acceptance is always paradigm relative, I propose to outline some possible consequences of such a view. First, asking the question in what sense Bayesian decision theory could serve as the appropriate (normative theory of rationality examined from the point of view of the epistemology of theory acceptance, I argue that Bayesianism leads to a narrow conception of theory acceptance. Second, regarding the different types of theory revision, i.e. expansion, contraction, replacement and residuals shifts, I extract from Kuhn's view a series of indications showing that theory replacement cannot be rationalized within the framework of Bayesian decision theory, not even within a more sophisticated version of that model. Third, and finally, I will point to the need for a more comprehensive model of rationality than the Bayesian expected utility maximization model, the need for a model which could better deal with the different aspects of theory replacement. I will show that Kuhn's distinction between normal and revolutionary science gives us several hints for a more adequate theory of rationality in science. I will also show that Kuhn is not in a position to fully articulate his main ideas and that he well be confronted with a serious problem concerning collective choice of a paradigm.

  20. From chaos to unification: U theory vs. M theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ye, Fred Y.

    2009-01-01

    A unified physical theory called U theory, that is different from M theory, is defined and characterized. U theory, which includes spinor and twistor theory, loop quantum gravity, causal dynamical triangulations, E-infinity unification theory, and Clifford-Finslerian unifications, is based on physical tradition and experimental foundations. In contrast, M theory pays more attention to mathematical forms. While M theory is characterized by supersymmetry string theory, U theory is characterized by non-supersymmetry unified field theory.

  1. Contemporary theories of democracy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mladenović Ivan

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is two-fold: first, to analyze several contemporary theories of democracy, and secondly, to propose a theoretical framework for further investigations based on analyzed theories. The following four theories will be analyzed: pluralism, social choice theory, deliberative democracy and participatory democracy.

  2. Descriptive set theory

    CERN Document Server

    Moschovakis, YN

    1987-01-01

    Now available in paperback, this monograph is a self-contained exposition of the main results and methods of descriptive set theory. It develops all the necessary background material from logic and recursion theory, and treats both classical descriptive set theory and the effective theory developed by logicians.

  3. A theory of everything?

    CERN Multimedia

    't Hooft, Gerardus; Witten, Edward

    2005-01-01

    In his later years, Einstein sought a unified theory that would extend general relativity and provide an alternative to quantum theory. There is now talk of a "theory of everything"; fifty years after his death, how close are we to such a theory? (3 pages)

  4. Game theory in philosophy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Bruin, B.P.

    2005-01-01

    Game theory is the mathematical study of strategy and conflict. It has wide applications in economics, political science, sociology, and, to some extent, in philosophy. Where rational choice theory or decision theory is concerned with individual agents facing games against nature, game theory deals

  5. Introduction to game theory

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2003-01-01

    The basic ideas of game theory were originated from the problems of maximum and minimum given by J.Yon Neumann in 1928. Later, wars accelerated the study of game theory, there are many developments that contributed to the advancement of game theory, many problems of optimum appeared in economic development process. Scientists applied mathematic methods to studying game theory to make the theory more profound and perfect. The axiomatic structure of game theory was nearly complete in 1944. The path of the development of game theory started from finite to infinite, from two players to many players, from expressing gains with quantity to showing the ending of game theory with abstract result, and from certainty problems to random problems. Thus development of game theory is closely related to the economic development. In recent years, the research on the non-differentiability of Shapley value posed by Belgian Mertens is one of the advanced studies in game theory.

  6. Nonrelativistic superstring theories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Bom Soo

    2007-01-01

    We construct a supersymmetric version of the critical nonrelativistic bosonic string theory [B. S. Kim, Phys. Rev. D 76, 106007 (2007).] with its manifest global symmetry. We introduce the anticommuting bc conformal field theory (CFT) which is the super partner of the βγ CFT. The conformal weights of the b and c fields are both 1/2. The action of the fermionic sector can be transformed into that of the relativistic superstring theory. We explicitly quantize the theory with manifest SO(8) symmetry and find that the spectrum is similar to that of type IIB superstring theory. There is one notable difference: the fermions are nonchiral. We further consider noncritical generalizations of the supersymmetric theory using the superspace formulation. There is an infinite range of possible string theories similar to the supercritical string theories. We comment on the connection between the critical nonrelativistic string theory and the lightlike linear dilaton theory

  7. Nonrelativistic closed string theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gomis, Jaume; Ooguri, Hirosi

    2001-01-01

    We construct a Galilean invariant nongravitational closed string theory whose excitations satisfy a nonrelativistic dispersion relation. This theory can be obtained by taking a consistent low energy limit of any of the conventional string theories, including the heterotic string. We give a finite first order worldsheet Hamiltonian for this theory and show that this string theory has a sensible perturbative expansion, interesting high energy behavior of scattering amplitudes and a Hagedorn transition of the thermal ensemble. The strong coupling duals of the Galilean superstring theories are considered and are shown to be described by an eleven-dimensional Galilean invariant theory of light membrane fluctuations. A new class of Galilean invariant nongravitational theories of light-brane excitations are obtained. We exhibit dual formulations of the strong coupling limits of these Galilean invariant theories and show that they exhibit many of the conventional dualities of M theory in a nonrelativistic setting

  8. Gauge theory loop operators and Liouville theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Drukker, Nadav; Teschner, Joerg

    2009-10-01

    We propose a correspondence between loop operators in a family of four dimensional N=2 gauge theories on S 4 - including Wilson, 't Hooft and dyonic operators - and Liouville theory loop operators on a Riemann surface. This extends the beautiful relation between the partition function of these N=2 gauge theories and Liouville correlators found by Alday, Gaiotto and Tachikawa. We show that the computation of these Liouville correlators with the insertion of a Liouville loop operator reproduces Pestun's formula capturing the expectation value of a Wilson loop operator in the corresponding gauge theory. We prove that our definition of Liouville loop operators is invariant under modular transformations, which given our correspondence, implies the conjectured action of S-duality on the gauge theory loop operators. Our computations in Liouville theory make an explicit prediction for the exact expectation value of 't Hooft and dyonic loop operators in these N=2 gauge theories. The Liouville loop operators are also found to admit a simple geometric interpretation within quantum Teichmueller theory as the quantum operators representing the length of geodesics. We study the algebra of Liouville loop operators and show that it gives evidence for our proposal as well as providing definite predictions for the operator product expansion of loop operators in gauge theory. (orig.)

  9. Identity theory and personality theory: mutual relevance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stryker, Sheldon

    2007-12-01

    Some personality psychologists have found a structural symbolic interactionist frame and identity theory relevant to their work. This frame and theory, developed in sociology, are first reviewed. Emphasized in the review are a multiple identity conception of self, identities as internalized expectations derived from roles embedded in organized networks of social interaction, and a view of social structures as facilitators in bringing people into networks or constraints in keeping them out, subsequently, attention turns to a discussion of the mutual relevance of structural symbolic interactionism/identity theory and personality theory, looking to extensions of the current literature on these topics.

  10. Towards a theory of spacetime theories

    CERN Document Server

    Schiemann, Gregor; Scholz, Erhard

    2017-01-01

    This contributed volume is the result of a July 2010 workshop at the University of Wuppertal Interdisciplinary Centre for Science and Technology Studies which brought together world-wide experts from physics, philosophy and history, in order to address a set of questions first posed in the 1950s: How do we compare spacetime theories? How do we judge, objectively, which is the “best” theory? Is there even a unique answer to this question? The goal of the workshop, and of this book, is to contribute to the development of a meta-theory of spacetime theories. Such a meta-theory would reveal insights about specific spacetime theories by distilling their essential similarities and differences, deliver a framework for a class of theories that could be helpful as a blueprint to build other meta-theories, and provide a higher level viewpoint for judging which theory most accurately describes nature. But rather than drawing a map in broad strokes, the focus is on particularly rich regions in the “space of spaceti...

  11. Gauge theory loop operators and Liouville theory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Drukker, Nadav [Humboldt Univ. Berlin (Germany). Inst. fuer Physik; Gomis, Jaume; Okuda, Takuda [Perimeter Inst. for Theoretical Physics, Waterloo, ON (Canada); Teschner, Joerg [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), Hamburg (Germany)

    2009-10-15

    We propose a correspondence between loop operators in a family of four dimensional N=2 gauge theories on S{sup 4} - including Wilson, 't Hooft and dyonic operators - and Liouville theory loop operators on a Riemann surface. This extends the beautiful relation between the partition function of these N=2 gauge theories and Liouville correlators found by Alday, Gaiotto and Tachikawa. We show that the computation of these Liouville correlators with the insertion of a Liouville loop operator reproduces Pestun's formula capturing the expectation value of a Wilson loop operator in the corresponding gauge theory. We prove that our definition of Liouville loop operators is invariant under modular transformations, which given our correspondence, implies the conjectured action of S-duality on the gauge theory loop operators. Our computations in Liouville theory make an explicit prediction for the exact expectation value of 't Hooft and dyonic loop operators in these N=2 gauge theories. The Liouville loop operators are also found to admit a simple geometric interpretation within quantum Teichmueller theory as the quantum operators representing the length of geodesics. We study the algebra of Liouville loop operators and show that it gives evidence for our proposal as well as providing definite predictions for the operator product expansion of loop operators in gauge theory. (orig.)

  12. What genre theory does

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Jack

    2015-01-01

    Purpose To provide a small overview of genre theory and its associated concepts and to show how genre theory has had its antecedents in certain parts of the social sciences and not in the humanities. Findings The chapter argues that the explanatory force of genre theory may be explained with its...... emphasis on everyday genres, de facto genres. Originality/value By providing an overview of genre theory, the chapter demonstrates the wealth and richness of forms of explanations in genre theory....

  13. Why string theory?

    CERN Document Server

    Conlon, Joseph

    2016-01-01

    Is string theory a fraud or one of the great scientific advances? Why do so many physicists work on string theory if it cannot be tested? This book provides insight into why such a theory, with little direct experimental support, plays such a prominent role in theoretical physics. The book gives a modern and accurate account of string theory and science, explaining what string theory is, why it is regarded as so promising, and why it is hard to test.

  14. Teaching Theory X and Theory Y in Organizational Communication

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noland, Carey

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of the activity described here is to integrate McGregor's Theory X and Theory Y into a group application: design a syllabus that embodies either Theory X or Theory Y tenets. Students should be able to differentiate between Theory X and Theory Y, create a syllabus based on Theory X or Theory Y tenets, evaluate the different syllabi…

  15. Agricultural risk management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lund, Mogens; Oksen, Arne; Larsen, Torben U.

    2005-01-01

    A new model for risk management in agriculture is described in the paper. The risk model is constructed as a context dependent process, which includes four main phases. The model is aimed at agricultural advisors, who wish to facilitate and disseminate risk management to farmers. It is developed...... and tested by an action research approach in an attempt to make risk management more applicable on family farms. Our obtained experiences indicate that farmers don’t apply probabilistic thinking and other concepts according to formal decision theory....

  16. The Review of Public Risk Management: Tome 1: Perspective of Theory and Practice, edited by Piotr Tworek and Józef Myrczek, Publishing House of the University of Economics in Katowice, Katowice 2016, pp. 258.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter C. Young

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available This book consists of twelve contributions (plus an introductory contribution by one of the book's editors, with those contributions separated into three Parts: 1. A risk management process in the public sector - theoretical and practical issues. 2. Different areas of risk management in the public sector - methodical approach. 3. Managing risk in the public sector in selected countries - results of empirical work.

  17. Risk management guide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Briscoe, G.J.

    1977-06-01

    Risk management requires an assessment or a knowledge of risk. This, in turn, requires identification of hazards (sources of risk) and a determination of risk (evaluation of the hazard degree). The hazard identification and risk analysis techniques presented in this Guide are, in general, based on the MORT concept that accidents result from unwanted energy flow in the absence of adequate controls and/or barriers. This Guide presents an analytical tree designed to prevent oversight of specific energy sources in risk identification. Hazard identification by field personnel is also discussed. Quantitative risk analysis is discussed in the following section. A method for summary of the risks for each energy classification is given. This method uses a graphical log-normal projection so that low probability events, which are not adequately represented in the experience data, are included in the risk assessment. This permits a more acceptable risk assessment since catastrophes are not ignored, even though the actual risk is only approximated. In addition, a few examples of risk analysis of specific hazards are given. Rudimentary probability and fault tree theory are used in these examples. Total risk assessment and resource allocation and safety performance trend analysis are discussed

  18. Direction: unified theory of interactions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Valko, P.

    1987-01-01

    Briefly characterized are the individual theories, namely, the general relativity theory, the Kaluza-Klein theory, the Weyl theory, the unified theory of electromagnetic and weak interactions, the supergravity theory, and the superstring theory. The history is recalled of efforts aimed at creating a unified theory of interactions, and future prospects are outlined. (M.D.). 2 figs

  19. Building theory through design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Markussen, Thomas

    2017-01-01

    This chapter deals with a fundamental matter of concern in research through design: how can design work lead to the building of new theory? Controversy exists about the balance between theory and design work in research through design. While some researchers see theory production as the scientific...... hallmark of this type of research, others argue for design work being the primary achievement, with theory serving the auxiliary function of inspiring new designs. This paper demonstrates how design work and theory can be appreciated as two equally important outcomes of research through design. To set...... the scene, it starts out by briefly examining ideas on this issue presented in existing research literature. Hereafter, it introduces three basic forms in which design work can lead to theory that is referred to as extending theories, scaffolding theories and blending theories. Finally, it is discussed how...

  20. The 'revealed preferences' theory: Assumptions and conjectures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Green, C.H.

    1983-01-01

    Being kind of intuitive psychology the 'Revealed-Preferences'- theory based approaches towards determining the acceptable risks are a useful method for the generation of hypotheses. In view of the fact that reliability engineering develops faster than methods for the determination of reliability aims the Revealed-Preferences approach is a necessary preliminary help. Some of the assumptions on which the 'Revealed-Preferences' theory is based will be identified and analysed and afterwards compared with experimentally obtained results. (orig./DG) [de

  1. Generalizability Theory and Classical Test Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brennan, Robert L.

    2011-01-01

    Broadly conceived, reliability involves quantifying the consistencies and inconsistencies in observed scores. Generalizability theory, or G theory, is particularly well suited to addressing such matters in that it enables an investigator to quantify and distinguish the sources of inconsistencies in observed scores that arise, or could arise, over…

  2. Generalizability theory and item response theory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Glas, Cornelis A.W.; Eggen, T.J.H.M.; Veldkamp, B.P.

    2012-01-01

    Item response theory is usually applied to items with a selected-response format, such as multiple choice items, whereas generalizability theory is usually applied to constructed-response tasks assessed by raters. However, in many situations, raters may use rating scales consisting of items with a

  3. String field theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaku, M.

    1987-01-01

    In this article, the authors summarize the rapid progress in constructing string field theory actions, such as the development of the covariant BRST theory. They also present the newer geometric formulation of string field theory, from which the BRST theory and the older light cone theory can be derived from first principles. This geometric formulation allows us to derive the complete field theory of strings from two geometric principles, in the same way that general relativity and Yang-Mills theory can be derived from two principles based on global and local symmetry. The geometric formalism therefore reduces string field theory to a problem of finding an invariant under a new local gauge group they call the universal string group (USG). Thus, string field theory is the gauge theory of the universal string group in much the same way that Yang-Mills theory is the gauge theory of SU(N). The geometric formulation places superstring theory on the same rigorous group theoretical level as general relativity and gauge theory

  4. NON-EXPECTED UTILITY THEORIES: WEIGHTED EXPECTED, RANK DEPENDENT, AND CUMULATIVE PROSPECT THEORY UTILITY

    OpenAIRE

    Tuthill, Jonathan W.; Frechette, Darren L.

    2002-01-01

    This paper discusses some of the failings of expected utility including the Allais paradox and expected utility's inadequate one dimensional characterization of risk. Three alternatives to expected utility are discussed at length; weighted expected utility, rank dependent utility, and cumulative prospect theory. Each alternative is capable of explaining Allais paradox type problems and permits more sophisticated multi dimensional risk preferences.

  5. Thinking through cancer risk: characterizing smokers' process of risk determination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hay, Jennifer; Shuk, Elyse; Cruz, Gustavo; Ostroff, Jamie

    2005-10-01

    The perception of cancer risk motivates cancer risk reduction behaviors. However, common measurement strategies for cancer risk perceptions, which involve numerical likelihood estimates, do not adequately capture individuals' thoughts and feelings about cancer risk. To guide the development of novel measurement strategies, the authors used semistructured interviews to examine the thought processes used by smokers (N = 15) as they considered their cancer risk. They used grounded theory to guide systematic data coding and develop a heuristic model describing smokers' risk perception process that includes a cognitive, primarily rational process whereby salient personal risk factors for cancer are considered and combined, and an affective/attitudinal process, which shifts risk perceptions either up or down. The model provides a tentative explanation concerning how people hold cancer risk perceptions that diverge from rational assessment of their risks and will be useful in guiding the development of non-numerical measurements strategies for cancer risk perceptions.

  6. Toward a Middle-Range Theory of Weight Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pickett, Stephanie; Peters, Rosalind M; Jarosz, Patricia A

    2014-07-01

    The authors of this paper present the middle-range theory of weight management that focuses on cultural, environmental, and psychosocial factors that influence behaviors needed for weight control. The theory of weight management was developed deductively from Orem's theory of self-care, a constituent theory within the broader self-care deficit nursing theory and from research literature. Linkages between the conceptual and middle-range theory concepts are illustrated using a substruction model. The development of the theory of weight management serves to build nursing science by integrating extant nursing theory and empirical knowledge. This theory may help predict weight management in populations at risk for obesity-related disorders. © The Author(s) 2014.

  7. Leverage Aversion and Risk Parity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Asness, Clifford; Frazzini, Andrea; Heje Pedersen, Lasse

    2012-01-01

    The authors show that leverage aversion changes the predictions of modern portfolio theory: Safer assets must offer higher risk-adjusted returns than riskier assets. Consuming the high risk-adjusted returns of safer assets requires leverage, creating an opportunity for investors with the ability...... to apply leverage. Risk parity portfolios exploit this opportunity by equalizing the risk allocation across asset classes, thus overweighting safer assets relative to their weight in the market portfolio....

  8. Macroeconomic Sources of FOREX Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Smith, Peter N; Wickens, Michael R.

    2002-01-01

    This Paper is an exploration into the links between macroeconomics and finance as they affect the FOREX risk premium. SDF theory is used in which the factors are observable macroeconomic variables. Three SDF theories are compared: a benchmark model based on traditional tests of FOREX efficiency; consumption-based CAPM; and the monetary model of the exchange rate. The theory takes account of both domestic and foreign investors. The joint distribution of the excess return to FOREX and the macro...

  9. Effective quantum field theories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Georgi, H.M.

    1993-01-01

    The most appropriate description of particle interactions in the language of quantum field theory depends on the energy at which the interactions are studied; the description is in terms of an ''effective field theory'' that contains explicit reference only to those particles that are actually important at the energy being studied. The various themes of the article are: local quantum field theory, quantum electrodynamics, new physics, dimensional parameters and renormalizability, socio-dynamics of particle theory, spontaneously broken gauge theories, scale dependence, grand unified and effective field theories. 2 figs

  10. The Grounded Theory Bookshelf

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vivian B. Martin, Ph.D.

    2005-03-01

    Full Text Available Bookshelf will provide critical reviews and perspectives on books on theory and methodology of interest to grounded theory. This issue includes a review of Heaton’s Reworking Qualitative Data, of special interest for some of its references to grounded theory as a secondary analysis tool; and Goulding’s Grounded Theory: A practical guide for management, business, and market researchers, a book that attempts to explicate the method and presents a grounded theory study that falls a little short of the mark of a fully elaborated theory.Reworking Qualitative Data, Janet Heaton (Sage, 2004. Paperback, 176 pages, $29.95. Hardcover also available.

  11. Quantum potential theory

    CERN Document Server

    Schürmann, Michael

    2008-01-01

    This volume contains the revised and completed notes of lectures given at the school "Quantum Potential Theory: Structure and Applications to Physics," held at the Alfried-Krupp-Wissenschaftskolleg in Greifswald from February 26 to March 10, 2007. Quantum potential theory studies noncommutative (or quantum) analogs of classical potential theory. These lectures provide an introduction to this theory, concentrating on probabilistic potential theory and it quantum analogs, i.e. quantum Markov processes and semigroups, quantum random walks, Dirichlet forms on C* and von Neumann algebras, and boundary theory. Applications to quantum physics, in particular the filtering problem in quantum optics, are also presented.

  12. Historicizing affordance theory

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Sofie; Bang, Jytte Susanne

    2017-01-01

    The aim of this article is to discuss how mutually enriching points from both affordance theory and cultural-historical activity theory can promote theoretical ideas which may prove useful as analytical tools for the study of human life and human development. There are two issues that need...... to be overcome in order to explore the potentials of James Gibson’s affordance theory: it does not sufficiently theorize (a) development and (b) society. We claim that Gibson’s affordance theory still needs to be brought beyond “the axiom of immediacy.” Ambivalences in Gibson’s affordance theory...... societal character of affordance theory....

  13. Prospect Theory for Online Financial Trading

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yang-Yu; Nacher, Jose C.; Ochiai, Tomoshiro; Martino, Mauro; Altshuler, Yaniv

    2014-03-01

    Prospect theory is widely viewed as the best available descriptive model of how people evaluate risk in experimental settings. According to prospect theory, people make decisions based on the potential value of losses and gains rather than the final outcome. People are risk-averse with respect to gains and risk-seeking with respect to losses, a phenomenon called ``loss aversion''. Despite of the fact that prospect theory has been well studied in behavioral economics at the theoretical level, there exist very few empirical research and most of them has been undertaken with micro-panel data. Here we analyze the trading activities of over 1.5 million members of an online financial trading community over 28 months, aiming to explore the large-scale empirical aspect of prospect theory. By analyzing and comparing the behaviour of ``winners'' and ``losers'', i.e., traders with positive or negative final net profit, we find clear evidence of the loss aversion phenomenon, an essence in prospect theory. This work demonstrates an unprecedented large-scale empirical evidence of prospect theory. It has immediate implication in financial trading, e.g., developing new trading strategies by minimizing the effect of loss aversion. It also provides opportunity to augment online social trading, where users are allowed to watch and follow the trading activity of others, by predicting potential winners based on their historical trading behaviour.

  14. Thirty Years of Prospect Theory in Economics: A Review and Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Nicholas C. Barberis

    2013-01-01

    In 1979, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, published a paper in Econometrica titled "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk." The paper presented a new model of risk attitudes called "prospect theory," which elegantly captured the experimental evidence on risk taking, including the documented violations of expected utility. More than 30 years later, prospect theory is still widely viewed as the best available description of how people evaluate risk in experimental settings. Howev...

  15. Uncertainty: lotteries and risk

    OpenAIRE

    Ávalos, Eloy

    2011-01-01

    In this paper we develop the theory of uncertainty in a context where the risks assumed by the individual are measurable and manageable. We primarily use the definition of lottery to formulate the axioms of the individual's preferences, and its representation through the utility function von Neumann - Morgenstern. We study the expected utility theorem and its properties, the paradoxes of choice under uncertainty and finally the measures of risk aversion with monetary lotteries.

  16. Mean-deviation analysis in the theory of choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grechuk, Bogdan; Molyboha, Anton; Zabarankin, Michael

    2012-08-01

    Mean-deviation analysis, along with the existing theories of coherent risk measures and dual utility, is examined in the context of the theory of choice under uncertainty, which studies rational preference relations for random outcomes based on different sets of axioms such as transitivity, monotonicity, continuity, etc. An axiomatic foundation of the theory of coherent risk measures is obtained as a relaxation of the axioms of the dual utility theory, and a further relaxation of the axioms are shown to lead to the mean-deviation analysis. Paradoxes arising from the sets of axioms corresponding to these theories and their possible resolutions are discussed, and application of the mean-deviation analysis to optimal risk sharing and portfolio selection in the context of rational choice is considered. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

  17. Rigour and grounded theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooney, Adeline

    2011-01-01

    This paper explores ways to enhance and demonstrate rigour in a grounded theory study. Grounded theory is sometimes criticised for a lack of rigour. Beck (1993) identified credibility, auditability and fittingness as the main standards of rigour for qualitative research methods. These criteria were evaluated for applicability to a Straussian grounded theory study and expanded or refocused where necessary. The author uses a Straussian grounded theory study (Cooney, In press) to examine how the revised criteria can be applied when conducting a grounded theory study. Strauss and Corbin (1998b) criteria for judging the adequacy of a grounded theory were examined in the context of the wider literature examining rigour in qualitative research studies in general and grounded theory studies in particular. A literature search for 'rigour' and 'grounded theory' was carried out to support this analysis. Criteria are suggested for enhancing and demonstrating the rigour of a Straussian grounded theory study. These include: cross-checking emerging concepts against participants' meanings, asking experts if the theory 'fit' their experiences, and recording detailed memos outlining all analytical and sampling decisions. IMPLICATIONS FOR RESEARCH PRACTICE: The criteria identified have been expressed as questions to enable novice researchers to audit the extent to which they are demonstrating rigour when writing up their studies. However, it should not be forgotten that rigour is built into the grounded theory method through the inductive-deductive cycle of theory generation. Care in applying the grounded theory methodology correctly is the single most important factor in ensuring rigour.

  18. Academic decision making and prospect theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mowrer, Robert R; Davidson, William B

    2011-08-01

    Two studies are reported that investigate the applicability of prospect theory to college students' academic decision making. Exp. 1 failed to provide support for the risk-seeking portion of the fourfold pattern predicted by prospect theory but did find the greater weighting of losses over gains. Using a more sensitive dependent measure, in Exp. 2 the results of the first experiment were replicated in terms of the gain-loss effect and also found some support for the fourfold pattern in the interaction between probabilities and gain versus loss. The greatest risk-seeking was found in the high probability loss condition.

  19. Unsharpness-risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Preyssl, C.

    1986-01-01

    Safety analysis provides the only tool for evaluation and quantification of rare or hypothetical events leading to system failure. So far probability theory has been used for the fault- and event-tree methodology. The phenomenon of uncertainties constitutes an important aspect in risk analysis. Uncertainties can be classified as originating from 'randomness' or 'fuzziness'. Probability theory addresses randomness only. The use of 'fuzzy set theory' makes it possible to include both types of uncertainty in the mathematical model of risk analysis. Thus the 'fuzzy fault tree' is expressed in 'possibilistic' terms implying a range of simplifications and improvements. 'Human failure' and 'conditionality' can be treated correctly. Only minimum-maximum relations are used to combine the possibility distributions of events. Various event-classifications facilitate the interpretation of the results. The method is demonstrated by application to a TRIGA-research reactor. Uncertainty as an implicit part of 'fuzzy risk' can be quantified explicitly using an 'uncertainty measure'. Based on this the 'degree of relative compliance' with a quantizative safety goal can be defined for a particular risk. The introduction of 'weighting functionals' guarantees the consideration of the importances attached to different parts of the risk exceeding or complying with the standard. The comparison of two reference systems is demonstrated in a case study. It is concluded that any application of the 'fuzzy risk analysis' has to be free of any hypostatization when reducing subjective to objective information. (Author)

  20. Theories of Career Development. A Comparison of the Theories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osipow, Samuel H.

    These seven theories of career development are examined in previous chapters: (1) Roe's personality theory, (2) Holland's career typology theory, (3) the Ginzberg, Ginsburg, Axelrod, and Herma Theory, (4) psychoanalytic conceptions, (5) Super's developmental self-concept theory, (6) other personality theories, and (7) social systems theories.…

  1. Supersymmetric gauge theories from string theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Metzger, St.

    2005-12-01

    This thesis presents various ways to construct four-dimensional quantum field theories from string theory. In a first part we study the generation of a supersymmetric Yang-Mills theory, coupled to an adjoint chiral superfield, from type IIB string theory on non-compact Calabi-Yau manifolds, with D-branes wrapping certain sub-cycles. Properties of the gauge theory are then mapped to the geometric structure of the Calabi-Yau space. Even if the Calabi-Yau geometry is too complicated to evaluate the geometric integrals explicitly, one can then always use matrix model perturbation theory to calculate the effective superpotential. The second part of this work covers the generation of four-dimensional super-symmetric gauge theories, carrying several important characteristic features of the standard model, from compactifications of eleven-dimensional supergravity on G 2 -manifolds. If the latter contain conical singularities, chiral fermions are present in the four-dimensional gauge theory, which potentially lead to anomalies. We show that, locally at each singularity, these anomalies are cancelled by the non-invariance of the classical action through a mechanism called 'anomaly inflow'. Unfortunately, no explicit metric of a compact G 2 -manifold is known. Here we construct families of metrics on compact weak G 2 -manifolds, which contain two conical singularities. Weak G 2 -manifolds have properties that are similar to the ones of proper G 2 -manifolds, and hence the explicit examples might be useful to better understand the generic situation. Finally, we reconsider the relation between eleven-dimensional supergravity and the E 8 x E 8 -heterotic string. This is done by carefully studying the anomalies that appear if the supergravity theory is formulated on a ten-manifold times the interval. Again we find that the anomalies cancel locally at the boundaries of the interval through anomaly inflow, provided one suitably modifies the classical action. (author)

  2. Higher spin gauge theories

    CERN Document Server

    Henneaux, Marc; Vasiliev, Mikhail A

    2017-01-01

    Symmetries play a fundamental role in physics. Non-Abelian gauge symmetries are the symmetries behind theories for massless spin-1 particles, while the reparametrization symmetry is behind Einstein's gravity theory for massless spin-2 particles. In supersymmetric theories these particles can be connected also to massless fermionic particles. Does Nature stop at spin-2 or can there also be massless higher spin theories. In the past strong indications have been given that such theories do not exist. However, in recent times ways to evade those constraints have been found and higher spin gauge theories have been constructed. With the advent of the AdS/CFT duality correspondence even stronger indications have been given that higher spin gauge theories play an important role in fundamental physics. All these issues were discussed at an international workshop in Singapore in November 2015 where the leading scientists in the field participated. This volume presents an up-to-date, detailed overview of the theories i...

  3. Covariant Noncommutative Field Theory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Estrada-Jimenez, S [Licenciaturas en Fisica y en Matematicas, Facultad de Ingenieria, Universidad Autonoma de Chiapas Calle 4a Ote. Nte. 1428, Tuxtla Gutierrez, Chiapas (Mexico); Garcia-Compean, H [Departamento de Fisica, Centro de Investigacion y de Estudios Avanzados del IPN P.O. Box 14-740, 07000 Mexico D.F., Mexico and Centro de Investigacion y de Estudios Avanzados del IPN, Unidad Monterrey Via del Conocimiento 201, Parque de Investigacion e Innovacion Tecnologica (PIIT) Autopista nueva al Aeropuerto km 9.5, Lote 1, Manzana 29, cp. 66600 Apodaca Nuevo Leon (Mexico); Obregon, O [Instituto de Fisica de la Universidad de Guanajuato P.O. Box E-143, 37150 Leon Gto. (Mexico); Ramirez, C [Facultad de Ciencias Fisico Matematicas, Universidad Autonoma de Puebla, P.O. Box 1364, 72000 Puebla (Mexico)

    2008-07-02

    The covariant approach to noncommutative field and gauge theories is revisited. In the process the formalism is applied to field theories invariant under diffeomorphisms. Local differentiable forms are defined in this context. The lagrangian and hamiltonian formalism is consistently introduced.

  4. Theory of calorimetry

    CERN Document Server

    Zielenkiewicz, Wojciech

    2004-01-01

    The purpose of this book is to give a comprehensive description of the theoretical fundamentals of calorimetry. The considerations are based on the relations deduced from the laws and general equations of heat exchange theory and steering theory.

  5. Covariant Noncommutative Field Theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Estrada-Jimenez, S.; Garcia-Compean, H.; Obregon, O.; Ramirez, C.

    2008-01-01

    The covariant approach to noncommutative field and gauge theories is revisited. In the process the formalism is applied to field theories invariant under diffeomorphisms. Local differentiable forms are defined in this context. The lagrangian and hamiltonian formalism is consistently introduced

  6. Stabilizing bottomless action theories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Greensite, J.; Halpern, M.B.

    1983-12-01

    The authors show how to construct the Euclidean quantum theory corresponding to classical actions which are unbounded from below. The method preserves the classical limit, the large-N limit, and the perturbative expansion of the unstabilized theories. (Auth.)

  7. Algebraic conformal field theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fuchs, J.; Nationaal Inst. voor Kernfysica en Hoge-Energiefysica

    1991-11-01

    Many conformal field theory features are special versions of structures which are present in arbitrary 2-dimensional quantum field theories. So it makes sense to describe 2-dimensional conformal field theories in context of algebraic theory of superselection sectors. While most of the results of the algebraic theory are rather abstract, conformal field theories offer the possibility to work out many formulae explicitly. In particular, one can construct the full algebra A-bar of global observables and the endomorphisms of A-bar which represent the superselection sectors. Some explicit results are presented for the level 1 so(N) WZW theories; the algebra A-bar is found to be the enveloping algebra of a Lie algebra L-bar which is an extension of the chiral symmetry algebra of the WZW theory. (author). 21 refs., 6 figs

  8. The theory of remainders

    CERN Document Server

    Rothbart, Andrea

    2012-01-01

    An imaginative introduction to number theory and abstract algebra, this unique approach employs a pair of fictional characters whose dialogues explain theories and demonstrate applications in terms of football scoring, chess moves, and more.

  9. Economic theories of dictatorship

    OpenAIRE

    Alexandre Debs

    2010-01-01

    This article reviews recent advances in economic theories of dictatorships and their lessons for the political stability and economic performance of dictatorships. It reflects on the general usefulness of economic theories of dictatorship, with an application to foreign relations.

  10. Plasma kinetic theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elliott, J.A.

    1993-01-01

    Plasma kinetic theory is discussed and a comparison made with the kinetic theory of gases. The plasma is described by a modified set of fluid equations and it is shown how these fluid equations can be derived. (UK)

  11. Inflationary string theory?

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    strongly motivate a detailed search for inflation within string theory, although it has ... between string theory and observations provides a strong incentive for ..... sonably be expected to arise for any system having very many degrees of freedom.

  12. Field theory and strings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bonara, L.; Cotta-Ramusino, P.; Rinaldi, M.

    1987-01-01

    It is well-known that type I and heterotic superstring theories have a zero mass spectrum which correspond to the field content of N=1 supergravity theory coupled to supersymmetric Yang-Mills theory in 10-D. The authors study the field theory ''per se'', in the hope that simple consistency requirements will determine the theory completely once one knows the field content inherited from string theory. The simplest consistency requirements are: N=1 supersymmetry; and absence of chiral anomalies. This is what the authors discuss in this paper here leaving undetermined the question of the range of validity of the resulting field theory. As is known, a model of N=1 supergravity (SUGRA) coupled to supersymmetric Yang-Mills (SYM) theory was known in the form given by Chapline and Manton. The coupling of SUGRA to SYM was determined by the definition of the ''field strength'' 3-form H in this paper

  13. Introduction to percolation theory

    CERN Document Server

    Stauffer, Dietrich

    1991-01-01

    Percolation theory deals with clustering, criticallity, diffusion, fractals, phase transitions and disordered systems. This book covers the basic theory for the graduate, and also professionals dealing with it for the first time

  14. Making HCI Theory Work

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Clemmensen, Torkil; Kaptelinin, Victor; Nardi, Bonnie

    2016-01-01

    different ways of using activity theory: (1) analysing unique features, principles, and problematic aspects of the theory; (2) identifying domain-specific requirements for new theoretical tools; (3) developing new conceptual accounts of issues in the field of HCI; (4) guiding and supporting empirical...... analyses of HCI phenomena; and (5) providing new design illustrations, claims, and guidelines. We conclude that HCI researchers are not only users of imported theory, but also theory-makers who adapt and develop theory for different purposes.......This paper reports a study of the use of activity theory in human–computer interaction (HCI) research. We analyse activity theory in HCI since its first appearance about 25 years ago. Through an analysis and meta-synthesis of 109 selected HCI activity theory papers, we created a taxonomy of 5...

  15. Journal Afrika Statistika ISSN 0852-0305 Distortion risk measures ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    la somme et sur la structure de dépendance des risques, représentée par une copule. ... Key words: Coherence; Dependence structure; Distortion function; Risk measure; Risk theory; insurance; Wang ..... Weighted risk capital allocations.

  16. Nonlocal gauge theories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Partovi, M.H.

    1982-01-01

    From a generalization of the covariant derivative, nonlocal gauge theories are developed. These theories enjoy local gauge invariance and associated Ward identities, a corresponding locally conserved current, and a locally conserved energy-momentum tensor, with the Ward identities implying the masslessness of the gauge field as in local theories. Their ultraviolet behavior allows the presence as well as the absence of the Adler-Bell-Jackiw anomaly, the latter in analogy with lattice theories

  17. Noncommutative field theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Douglas, Michael R.; Nekrasov, Nikita A.

    2001-01-01

    This article reviews the generalization of field theory to space-time with noncommuting coordinates, starting with the basics and covering most of the active directions of research. Such theories are now known to emerge from limits of M theory and string theory and to describe quantum Hall states. In the last few years they have been studied intensively, and many qualitatively new phenomena have been discovered, on both the classical and the quantum level

  18. Problems in particle theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adler, S.L.; Wilczek, F.

    1993-11-01

    Areas of emphasis include acceleration algorithms for the Monte Carlo analysis of lattice field and gauge theories, quaternionic generalizations of complex quantum mechanics and field theory, application of the renormalization group to the QCD phase transition, the quantum Hall effect, and black holes. Other work involved string theory, statistical properties of energy levels in integrable quantum systems, baryon asymmetry and the electroweak phase transition, anisotropies of the cosmic microwave background, and theory of superconductors

  19. Multiscale System Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    1990-02-21

    LIDS-P-1953 Multiscale System Theory Albert Benveniste IRISA-INRIA, Campus de Beaulieu 35042 RENNES CEDEX, FRANCE Ramine Nikoukhah INRIA...TITLE AND SUBTITLE Multiscale System Theory 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT NUMBER 5e...the development of a corresponding system theory and a theory of stochastic processes and their estimation. The research presented in this and several

  20. Philosophical theories of probability

    CERN Document Server

    Gillies, Donald

    2000-01-01

    The Twentieth Century has seen a dramatic rise in the use of probability and statistics in almost all fields of research. This has stimulated many new philosophical ideas on probability. Philosophical Theories of Probability is the first book to present a clear, comprehensive and systematic account of these various theories and to explain how they relate to one another. Gillies also offers a distinctive version of the propensity theory of probability, and the intersubjective interpretation, which develops the subjective theory.

  1. Modern Theories of Language.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Philip W.

    This volume explores objectively the essential characteristic of nine twentieth-century linguistic theories with the theoretical variant for discussion based on one closely representative of work within a given approach or usually associated with the name of the theory. First, the theory of Ferdinand de Saussure is discussed based on his book,…

  2. Constructivist Grounded Theory?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barney G. Glaser, PhD, Hon. PhD

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available AbstractI refer to and use as scholarly inspiration Charmaz’s excellent article on constructivist grounded theory as a tool of getting to the fundamental issues on why grounded theory is not constructivist. I show that constructivist data, if it exists at all, is a very, very small part of the data that grounded theory uses.

  3. Essays in auction theory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maasland, E.

    2012-01-01

    Auction theory is a branch of game theory that considers human behavior in auction markets and the ensuing market outcomes. It is also successfully used as a tool to design real-life auctions. This thesis contains five essays addressing a variety of topics within the realm of auction theory. The

  4. Unified field theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prasad, R.

    1975-01-01

    Results of researches into Unified Field Theory over the past seven years are presented. The subject is dealt with in chapters entitled: the choice of affine connection, algebraic properties of the vector fields, field laws obtained from the affine connection based on the path integral method, application to quantum theory and cosmology, interpretation of physical theory in terms of geometry. (U.K.)

  5. Frankl's Theory and Therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Missinne, Leo E.; Wilcox, Victoria

    This paper discusses the life, theories, and therapeutic techniques of psychotherapist, Viktor E. Frankl. A brief biography of Frankl is included discussing the relationship of his early experiences as a physician to his theory of personality. Frankl's theory focusing on man's need for meaning and emphasizing the spiritual dimension in each human…

  6. Cognitive Theories of Autism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajendran, Gnanathusharan; Mitchell, Peter

    2007-01-01

    This article considers three theories of autism: The Theory of Mind Deficit, Executive Dysfunction and the Weak Central Coherence accounts. It outlines each along with studies relevant to their emergence, their expansion, their limitations and their possible integration. Furthermore, consideration is given to any implication from the theories in…

  7. Lattice gauge theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mack, G.

    1982-01-01

    After a description of a pure Yang-Mills theory on a lattice, the author considers a three-dimensional pure U(1) lattice gauge theory. Thereafter he discusses the exact relation between lattice gauge theories with the gauge groups SU(2) and SO(3). Finally he presents Monte Carlo data on phase transitions in SU(2) and SO(3) lattice gauge models. (HSI)

  8. Papers in auction theory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Onderstal, A.M.

    2002-01-01

    This thesis is a collection of six papers in auction theory, with several economic applications, both to real life auctions and to other economic phenomena. In the introduction to the thesis, Onderstal argues why auction theory is an important branch of economic theory, and discusses several

  9. Introduction to number theory

    CERN Document Server

    Vazzana, Anthony; Garth, David

    2007-01-01

    One of the oldest branches of mathematics, number theory is a vast field devoted to studying the properties of whole numbers. Offering a flexible format for a one- or two-semester course, Introduction to Number Theory uses worked examples, numerous exercises, and two popular software packages to describe a diverse array of number theory topics.

  10. Reflections on Activity Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bakhurst, David

    2009-01-01

    It is sometimes suggested that activity theory represents the most important legacy of Soviet philosophy and psychology. But what exactly "is" activity theory? The canonical account in the West is given by Engestrom, who identifies three stages in the theory's development: from Vygotsky's insights, through Leontiev's articulation of the…

  11. Superspace conformal field theory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Quella, Thomas [Koeln Univ. (Germany). Inst. fuer Theoretische Physik; Schomerus, Volker [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), Hamburg (Germany)

    2013-07-15

    Conformal sigma models and WZW models on coset superspaces provide important examples of logarithmic conformal field theories. They possess many applications to problems in string and condensed matter theory. We review recent results and developments, including the general construction of WZW models on type I supergroups, the classification of conformal sigma models and their embedding into string theory.

  12. Superspace conformal field theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Quella, Thomas

    2013-07-01

    Conformal sigma models and WZW models on coset superspaces provide important examples of logarithmic conformal field theories. They possess many applications to problems in string and condensed matter theory. We review recent results and developments, including the general construction of WZW models on type I supergroups, the classification of conformal sigma models and their embedding into string theory.

  13. Gauge theory and gravitation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kikkawa, Keiji; Nakanishi, Noboru; Nariai, Hidekazu

    1983-01-01

    These proceedings contain the articles presented at the named symposium. They deal with geometrical aspects of gauge theory and gravitation, special problems in gauge theories, quantum field theory in curved space-time, quantum gravity, supersymmetry including supergravity, and grand unification. See hints under the relevant topics. (HSI)

  14. Constructor theory of probability

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-01-01

    Unitary quantum theory, having no Born Rule, is non-probabilistic. Hence the notorious problem of reconciling it with the unpredictability and appearance of stochasticity in quantum measurements. Generalizing and improving upon the so-called ‘decision-theoretic approach’, I shall recast that problem in the recently proposed constructor theory of information—where quantum theory is represented as one of a class of superinformation theories, which are local, non-probabilistic theories conforming to certain constructor-theoretic conditions. I prove that the unpredictability of measurement outcomes (to which constructor theory gives an exact meaning) necessarily arises in superinformation theories. Then I explain how the appearance of stochasticity in (finitely many) repeated measurements can arise under superinformation theories. And I establish sufficient conditions for a superinformation theory to inform decisions (made under it) as if it were probabilistic, via a Deutsch–Wallace-type argument—thus defining a class of decision-supporting superinformation theories. This broadens the domain of applicability of that argument to cover constructor-theory compliant theories. In addition, in this version some of the argument's assumptions, previously construed as merely decision-theoretic, follow from physical properties expressed by constructor-theoretic principles. PMID:27616914

  15. Endogenous Prospect Theory

    OpenAIRE

    Schmidt, Ulrich; Zank, Horst

    2010-01-01

    In previous models of (cumulative) prospect theory reference-dependence of preferences is imposed beforehand and the location of the reference point is exogenously determined. This paper provides an axiomatization of a new specification of cumulative prospect theory, termed endogenous prospect theory, where reference-dependence is derived from preference conditions and a unique reference point arises endogenously.

  16. Sharpening Intertemporal Prospect Theory

    OpenAIRE

    Pushpa, Rathie; Carlos, Radavelli; Sergio, Da Silva

    2006-01-01

    Prospect theory [4] of risky choices has been extended to encompass intertemporal choices [6]. Presentation of intertemporal prospect theory suffers from minor mistakes, however [2]. To clarify the theory we restate it and show further mistakes in current presentations ([6], [2]) of value and discount functions.

  17. Personality and birth order in monozygotic twins adopted apart: a test of Sulloway's theory; Research Reviews: twin births and cancer risk in mothers, male sexual dysfunction, twin study of ultimatum game behavior; Human Interest: 'The Land of Twins', twin-like reunion-I, twin-like reunion-II.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Segal, Nancy L

    2008-02-01

    A brief overview of Sulloway's (1996) theory of birth order and personality is presented. A reared apart twin approach for testing his personality findings regarding openness to experience and conscientiousness in first borns and later borns is described. This is followed by summaries of three recent twin studies. The topics include cancer risk in mother of twins, sexual dysfunction in males and responder behavior during ultimatum games. This article concludes with a discussion of twinning rates and rituals among the Yoruba of western Nigeria, and descriptions of two unusual reunions between siblings and twins.

  18. Risk management

    OpenAIRE

    Mcmanus, John

    2009-01-01

    Few projects are completed on time, on budget, and to their original requirement or specifications. Focusing on what project managers need to know about risk in the pursuit of delivering projects, Risk Management covers key components of the risk management process and the software development process, as well as best practices for risk identification, risk planning, and risk analysis. The book examines risk planning, risk analysis responses to risk, the tracking and modelling of risks, intel...

  19. Gauge theories as theories of spontaneous breakdown

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ivanov, E.A.; Ogievetsky, V.I.

    1976-01-01

    Any gauge theory is proved to arise from spontaneous breakdown of symmetry under certain infinite parameter group, the corresponding gauge field being the Goldstone field by which this breakdown is accompanied

  20. Theory and context / Theory in context

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Glaveanu, Vlad Petre

    2014-01-01

    trans-disciplinary manner. Consideration needs to be given as well to connected scholarship focusing on imagination, innova-tion, and improvisation. Last but not least, an expanded the-ory of context cannot ignore the institutional context of doing research on creativity. Creativity scholars are facing......It is debatable whether the psychology of creativity is a field in crisis or not. There are clear signs of increased fragmenta-tion and a scarcity of integrative efforts, but is this necessari-ly bad? Do we need more comprehensive theories of creativ-ity and a return to old epistemological...... questions? This de-pends on how one understands theory. Against a view of theoretical work as aiming towards generality, universality, uniformity, completeness, and singularity, I advocate for a dynamic perspective in which theory is plural, multifaceted, and contextual. Far from ‘waiting for the Messiah...

  1. Invariant Theory (IT) & Standard Monomial Theory (SMT)

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    2013-07-06

    Jul 6, 2013 ... Why invariant theory? (continued). Now imagine algebraic calculations being made, with the two different sets of co-ordinates, about something of geometrical or physical interest concerning the configuration of points, ...

  2. VALUE AT RISK - CORPORATE RISK MEASUREMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anis Cecilia-Nicoleta

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The notion of 'risk' is used in a number of sciences. The Faculty of Law studies the risk depending on its legality. The Accident Theory applies this term to describe the damage and the disasters. One can find studies on the risks in the works of psychology, philosophy, medicine and within each of these areas the study of the risk is based on the given science subject and, of course, on their methods and approaches. Such a variety of risk study is explained by the diversity of this phenomenon. Under the market economy conditions, the risk is an essential component of any economic agent management policy, of the approach developed by this one, a strategy that depends almost entirely on individual ability and capacity to anticipate his evolution and to exploit his opportunities, assuming a so-called 'risk of business failure.' There are several ways to measure the risks in projects, one of the most used methods to measure this being the Value at Risk(VaR. Value at Risk (VaR was made famous by JP Morgan in the mid 1990s, by introducing the RiskMetrics approach, and hence, by far, has been sanctioned by several Governing Bodies throughout the world bank. In short, it measures the value of risk capital stocks in a given period at a certain probability of loss. This measurement can be modified for risk applications through, for example, the potential loss values affirmation in a certain amount of time during the economic life of the project- clearly, a project with a lower VaR is better. It should be noted that it is not always possible or advisable for a company to limit itself to the remote analysis of each risk because the risks and their effects are interdependent and constitute a system .In addition, there are risks which, in combination with other risks, tend to produce effects which they would not have caused by themselves and risks that tend to offset and even cancel each other out.

  3. Uncertainties and reliability theories for reactor safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Veneziano, D.

    1975-01-01

    What makes the safety problem of nuclear reactors particularly challenging is the demand for high levels of reliability and the limitation of statistical information. The latter is an unfortunate circumstance, which forces deductive theories of reliability to use models and parameter values with weak factual support. The uncertainty about probabilistic models and parameters which are inferred from limited statistical evidence can be quantified and incorporated rationally into inductive theories of reliability. In such theories, the starting point is the information actually available, as opposed to an estimated probabilistic model. But, while the necessity of introducing inductive uncertainty into reliability theories has been recognized by many authors, no satisfactory inductive theory is presently available. The paper presents: a classification of uncertainties and of reliability models for reactor safety; a general methodology to include these uncertainties into reliability analysis; a discussion about the relative advantages and the limitations of various reliability theories (specifically, of inductive and deductive, parametric and nonparametric, second-moment and full-distribution theories). For example, it is shown that second-moment theories, which were originally suggested to cope with the scarcity of data, and which have been proposed recently for the safety analysis of secondary containment vessels, are the least capable of incorporating statistical uncertainty. The focus is on reliability models for external threats (seismic accelerations and tornadoes). As an application example, the effect of statistical uncertainty on seismic risk is studied using parametric full-distribution models

  4. Nuclear structure theory

    CERN Document Server

    Irvine, J M

    1972-01-01

    Nuclear Structure Theory provides a guide to nuclear structure theory. The book is comprised of 23 chapters that are organized into four parts; each part covers an aspect of nuclear structure theory. In the first part, the text discusses the experimentally observed phenomena, which nuclear structure theories need to look into and detail the information that supports those theories. The second part of the book deals with the phenomenological nucleon-nucleon potentials derived from phase shift analysis of nucleon-nucleon scattering. Part III talks about the phenomenological parameters used to de

  5. Measure and integration theory

    CERN Document Server

    Burckel, Robert B

    2001-01-01

    This book gives a straightforward introduction to the field as it is nowadays required in many branches of analysis and especially in probability theory. The first three chapters (Measure Theory, Integration Theory, Product Measures) basically follow the clear and approved exposition given in the author's earlier book on ""Probability Theory and Measure Theory"". Special emphasis is laid on a complete discussion of the transformation of measures and integration with respect to the product measure, convergence theorems, parameter depending integrals, as well as the Radon-Nikodym theorem. The fi

  6. Special theory of relativity

    CERN Document Server

    Kilmister, Clive William

    1970-01-01

    Special Theory of Relativity provides a discussion of the special theory of relativity. Special relativity is not, like other scientific theories, a statement about the matter that forms the physical world, but has the form of a condition that the explicit physical theories must satisfy. It is thus a form of description, playing to some extent the role of the grammar of physics, prescribing which combinations of theoretical statements are admissible as descriptions of the physical world. Thus, to describe it, one needs also to describe those specific theories and to say how much they are limit

  7. Variational Transition State Theory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Truhlar, Donald G. [Univ. of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN (United States)

    2016-09-29

    This is the final report on a project involving the development and applications of variational transition state theory. This project involved the development of variational transition state theory for gas-phase reactions, including optimized multidimensional tunneling contributions and the application of this theory to gas-phase reactions with a special emphasis on developing reaction rate theory in directions that are important for applications to combustion. The development of variational transition state theory with optimized multidimensional tunneling as a useful computational tool for combustion kinetics involved eight objectives.

  8. Extremal graph theory

    CERN Document Server

    Bollobas, Bela

    2004-01-01

    The ever-expanding field of extremal graph theory encompasses a diverse array of problem-solving methods, including applications to economics, computer science, and optimization theory. This volume, based on a series of lectures delivered to graduate students at the University of Cambridge, presents a concise yet comprehensive treatment of extremal graph theory.Unlike most graph theory treatises, this text features complete proofs for almost all of its results. Further insights into theory are provided by the numerous exercises of varying degrees of difficulty that accompany each chapter. A

  9. Introduction to spectral theory

    CERN Document Server

    Levitan, B M

    1975-01-01

    This monograph is devoted to the spectral theory of the Sturm- Liouville operator and to the spectral theory of the Dirac system. In addition, some results are given for nth order ordinary differential operators. Those parts of this book which concern nth order operators can serve as simply an introduction to this domain, which at the present time has already had time to become very broad. For the convenience of the reader who is not familar with abstract spectral theory, the authors have inserted a chapter (Chapter 13) in which they discuss this theory, concisely and in the main without proofs, and indicate various connections with the spectral theory of differential operators.

  10. Game theory an introduction

    CERN Document Server

    Barron, E N

    2013-01-01

    An exciting new edition of the popular introduction to game theory and its applications The thoroughly expanded Second Edition presents a unique, hands-on approach to game theory. While most books on the subject are too abstract or too basic for mathematicians, Game Theory: An Introduction, Second Edition offers a blend of theory and applications, allowing readers to use theory and software to create and analyze real-world decision-making models. With a rigorous, yet accessible, treatment of mathematics, the book focuses on results that can be used to

  11. Model theory and modules

    CERN Document Server

    Prest, M

    1988-01-01

    In recent years the interplay between model theory and other branches of mathematics has led to many deep and intriguing results. In this, the first book on the topic, the theme is the interplay between model theory and the theory of modules. The book is intended to be a self-contained introduction to the subject and introduces the requisite model theory and module theory as it is needed. Dr Prest develops the basic ideas concerning what can be said about modules using the information which may be expressed in a first-order language. Later chapters discuss stability-theoretic aspects of module

  12. Finite quantum field theories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lucha, W.; Neufeld, H.

    1986-01-01

    We investigate the relation between finiteness of a four-dimensional quantum field theory and global supersymmetry. To this end we consider the most general quantum field theory and analyse the finiteness conditions resulting from the requirement of the absence of divergent contributions to the renormalizations of the parameters of the theory. In addition to the gauge bosons, both fermions and scalar bosons turn out to be a necessary ingredient in a non-trivial finite gauge theory. In all cases discussed, the supersymmetric theory restricted by two well-known constraints on the dimensionless couplings proves to be the unique solution of the finiteness conditions. (Author)

  13. Risk perception versus seismic risk: An introduction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cubeddu, Francesca

    2015-01-01

    A seismic event generally has consequences on the social relationships, economy and culture of the impacted territory. As Mary Douglas quotes, a change into the social perception of risk as consequence of an earthquake may have effects on the lifestyle of the local community. The above mentioned statement is the starting point of this article. illustrating the difference between peril and risk is the second point. According to the Aristotelian theory of categories, risk can be considered as a human characteristic depending on social and cultural factors. Risk is here intended as a social category and cannot be de facto reported as a statistical or stochastic function based on a mathematical formula, as long assumed in the past. This approach, then, requires a deep revision. In this sense, and following the concept of risk perception, seismic risk is analysed in this article in terms of impacts, precautionary measures, risk assessment and management. Knowledge of this topic cannot be intended as a simple philosophical exercise, since right on awareness depend risk reduction, humans and goods too [it

  14. Copula Theory and Its Applications

    CERN Document Server

    Jaworski, Piotr; Hardle, Wolfgang Karl; Rychlik, Tomasz

    2010-01-01

    Copulas are mathematical objects that fully capture the dependence structure among random variables and hence offer great flexibility in building multivariate stochastic models. Since their introduction in the early 50's, copulas have gained considerable popularity in several fields of applied mathematics, such as finance, insurance and reliability theory. Today, they represent a well-recognized tool for market and credit models, aggregation of risks, portfolio selection, etc. This book is divided into two main parts: Part I - 'Surveys' contains 11 chapters that provide an up-to-date account o

  15. Geophysical Field Theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eloranta, E.

    2003-11-01

    The geophysical field theory includes the basic principles of electromagnetism, continuum mechanics, and potential theory upon which the computational modelling of geophysical phenomena is based on. Vector analysis is the main mathematical tool in the field analyses. Electrostatics, stationary electric current, magnetostatics, and electrodynamics form a central part of electromagnetism in geophysical field theory. Potential theory concerns especially gravity, but also electrostatics and magnetostatics. Solid state mechanics and fluid mechanics are central parts in continuum mechanics. Also the theories of elastic waves and rock mechanics belong to geophysical solid state mechanics. The theories of geohydrology and mass transport form one central field theory in geophysical fluid mechanics. Also heat transfer is included in continuum mechanics. (orig.)

  16. Theory of superconductivity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crisan, M.

    1988-01-01

    This book discusses the most important aspects of the theory. The phenomenological model is followed by the microscopic theory of superconductivity, in which modern formalism of the many-body theory is used to treat most important problems such as superconducting alloys, coexistence of superconductivity with the magnetic order, and superconductivity in quasi-one-dimensional systems. It concludes with a discussion on models for exotic and high temperature superconductivity. Its main aim is to review, as complete as possible, the theory of superconductivity from classical models and methods up to the 1987 results on high temperature superconductivity. Contents: Phenomenological Theory of Superconductivity; Microscopic Theory of Superconductivity; Theory of Superconducting Alloys; Superconductors in a Magnetic Field; Superconductivity and Magnetic Order; Superconductivity in Quasi-One-Dimensional Systems; and Non-Conventional Superconductivity

  17. Gravitation and source theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yilmaz, H.

    1975-01-01

    Schwinger's source theory is applied to the problem of gravitation and its quantization. It is shown that within the framework of a flat-space the source theory implementation leads to a violation of probability. To avoid the difficulty one must introduce a curved space-time hence the source concept may be said to necessitate the transition to a curved-space theory of gravitation. It is further shown that the curved-space theory of gravitation implied by the source theory is not equivalent to the conventional Einstein theory. The source concept leads to a different theory where the gravitational field has a stress-energy tensor t/sup nu//sub mu/ which contributes to geometric curvatures

  18. Introduction to representation theory

    CERN Document Server

    Etingof, Pavel; Hensel, Sebastian; Liu, Tiankai; Schwendner, Alex

    2011-01-01

    Very roughly speaking, representation theory studies symmetry in linear spaces. It is a beautiful mathematical subject which has many applications, ranging from number theory and combinatorics to geometry, probability theory, quantum mechanics, and quantum field theory. The goal of this book is to give a "holistic" introduction to representation theory, presenting it as a unified subject which studies representations of associative algebras and treating the representation theories of groups, Lie algebras, and quivers as special cases. Using this approach, the book covers a number of standard topics in the representation theories of these structures. Theoretical material in the book is supplemented by many problems and exercises which touch upon a lot of additional topics; the more difficult exercises are provided with hints. The book is designed as a textbook for advanced undergraduate and beginning graduate students. It should be accessible to students with a strong background in linear algebra and a basic k...

  19. [Introduction to grounded theory].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Shou-Yu; Windsor, Carol; Yates, Patsy

    2012-02-01

    Grounded theory, first developed by Glaser and Strauss in the 1960s, was introduced into nursing education as a distinct research methodology in the 1970s. The theory is grounded in a critique of the dominant contemporary approach to social inquiry, which imposed "enduring" theoretical propositions onto study data. Rather than starting from a set theoretical framework, grounded theory relies on researchers distinguishing meaningful constructs from generated data and then identifying an appropriate theory. Grounded theory is thus particularly useful in investigating complex issues and behaviours not previously addressed and concepts and relationships in particular populations or places that are still undeveloped or weakly connected. Grounded theory data analysis processes include open, axial and selective coding levels. The purpose of this article was to explore the grounded theory research process and provide an initial understanding of this methodology.

  20. Applied number theory

    CERN Document Server

    Niederreiter, Harald

    2015-01-01

    This textbook effectively builds a bridge from basic number theory to recent advances in applied number theory. It presents the first unified account of the four major areas of application where number theory plays a fundamental role, namely cryptography, coding theory, quasi-Monte Carlo methods, and pseudorandom number generation, allowing the authors to delineate the manifold links and interrelations between these areas.  Number theory, which Carl-Friedrich Gauss famously dubbed the queen of mathematics, has always been considered a very beautiful field of mathematics, producing lovely results and elegant proofs. While only very few real-life applications were known in the past, today number theory can be found in everyday life: in supermarket bar code scanners, in our cars’ GPS systems, in online banking, etc.  Starting with a brief introductory course on number theory in Chapter 1, which makes the book more accessible for undergraduates, the authors describe the four main application areas in Chapters...