The opportunity-threat theory of decision-making under risk

OpenAIRE

Mohan Pandey

2018-01-01

A new theory of decision-making under risk, the Opportunity-Threat Theory is proposed. Analysis of risk into opportunity and threat components allows description of behavior as a combination of opportunity seeking and threat aversion. Expected utility is a special case of this model. The final evaluation is an integration of the impacts of opportunity and threat with this expectation. The model can account for basic results as well as several ``new paradoxes'' that refuted c...

Improving measurement of injection drug risk behavior using item response theory.

Science.gov (United States)

Janulis, Patrick

2014-03-01

Recent research highlights the multiple steps to preparing and injecting drugs and the resultant viral threats faced by drug users. This research suggests that more sensitive measurement of injection drug HIV risk behavior is required. In addition, growing evidence suggests there are gender differences in injection risk behavior. However, the potential for differential item functioning between genders has not been explored. To explore item response theory as an improved measurement modeling technique that provides empirically justified scaling of injection risk behavior and to examine for potential gender-based differential item functioning. Data is used from three studies in the National Institute on Drug Abuse's Criminal Justice Drug Abuse Treatment Studies. A two-parameter item response theory model was used to scale injection risk behavior and logistic regression was used to examine for differential item functioning. Item fit statistics suggest that item response theory can be used to scale injection risk behavior and these models can provide more sensitive estimates of risk behavior. Additionally, gender-based differential item functioning is present in the current data. Improved measurement of injection risk behavior using item response theory should be encouraged as these models provide increased congruence between construct measurement and the complexity of injection-related HIV risk. Suggestions are made to further improve injection risk behavior measurement. Furthermore, results suggest direct comparisons of composite scores between males and females may be misleading and future work should account for differential item functioning before comparing levels of injection risk behavior.

Exaggerated risk: prospect theory and probability weighting in risky choice.

Science.gov (United States)

Kusev, Petko; van Schaik, Paul; Ayton, Peter; Dent, John; Chater, Nick

2009-11-01

In 5 experiments, we studied precautionary decisions in which participants decided whether or not to buy insurance with specified cost against an undesirable event with specified probability and cost. We compared the risks taken for precautionary decisions with those taken for equivalent monetary gambles. Fitting these data to Tversky and Kahneman's (1992) prospect theory, we found that the weighting function required to model precautionary decisions differed from that required for monetary gambles. This result indicates a failure of the descriptive invariance axiom of expected utility theory. For precautionary decisions, people overweighted small, medium-sized, and moderately large probabilities-they exaggerated risks. This effect is not anticipated by prospect theory or experience-based decision research (Hertwig, Barron, Weber, & Erev, 2004). We found evidence that exaggerated risk is caused by the accessibility of events in memory: The weighting function varies as a function of the accessibility of events. This suggests that people's experiences of events leak into decisions even when risk information is explicitly provided. Our findings highlight a need to investigate how variation in decision content produces variation in preferences for risk.

A tri-reference point theory of decision making under risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, X T; Johnson, Joseph G

2012-11-01

The tri-reference point (TRP) theory takes into account minimum requirements (MR), the status quo (SQ), and goals (G) in decision making under risk. The 3 reference points demarcate risky outcomes and risk perception into 4 functional regions: success (expected value of x ≥ G), gain (SQ G > SQ. We present TRP assumptions and value functions and a mathematical formalization of the theory. We conducted empirical tests of crucial TRP predictions using both explicit and implicit reference points. We show that decision makers consider both G and MR and give greater weight to MR than G, indicating failure aversion (i.e., the disutility of a failure is greater than the utility of a success in the same task) in addition to loss aversion (i.e., the disutility of a loss is greater than the utility of the same amount of gain). Captured by a double-S shaped value function with 3 inflection points, risk preferences switched between risk seeking and risk aversion when the distribution of a gamble straddled a different reference point. The existence of MR (not G) significantly shifted choice preference toward risk aversion even when the outcome distribution of a gamble was well above the MR. Single reference point based models such as prospect theory cannot consistently account for these findings. The TRP theory provides simple guidelines for evaluating risky choices for individuals and organizational management. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved).

Decision theory and the evaluation of risks and benefits of clinical trials.

Science.gov (United States)

Bernabe, Rosemarie D C; van Thiel, Ghislaine J M W; Raaijmakers, Jan A M; van Delden, Johannes J M

2012-12-01

Research ethics committees (RECs) are tasked to assess the risks and the benefits of a clinical trial. In previous studies, it was shown that RECs find this task difficult, if not impossible, to do. The current approaches to benefit-risk assessment (i.e. Component Analysis and the Net Risk Test) confound the various risk-benefit tasks, and as such, make balancing impossible. In this article, we show that decision theory, specifically through the expected utility theory and multiattribute utility theory, enable for an explicit and ethically weighted risk-benefit evaluation. This makes a balanced ethical justification possible, and thus a more rationally defensible decision making. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quantitative modeling of operational risk in finance and banking using possibility theory

CERN Document Server

Chaudhuri, Arindam

2016-01-01

This book offers a comprehensive guide to the modelling of operational risk using possibility theory. It provides a set of methods for measuring operational risks under a certain degree of vagueness and impreciseness, as encountered in real-life data. It shows how possibility theory and indeterminate uncertainty-encompassing degrees of belief can be applied in analysing the risk function, and describes the parametric g-and-h distribution associated with extreme value theory as an interesting candidate in this regard. The book offers a complete assessment of fuzzy methods for determining both value at risk (VaR) and subjective value at risk (SVaR), together with a stability estimation of VaR and SVaR. Based on the simulation studies and case studies reported on here, the possibilistic quantification of risk performs consistently better than the probabilistic model. Risk is evaluated by integrating two fuzzy techniques: the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and the fuzzy extension of techniques for order prefere...

Risk Oriented Audit Methodology’s Improvement, based on the Fraud Theory

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sergei V. Arzhenovskii

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Modern economic development is accompanied by the increasing complexity of the relationship structure, intercompany transactions, the requirements for information disclosure on the entity’s activities. It leads to the opportunities growth of fraudulent representation public companies reporting. The external audit is considered as an institution that resists to negative processes. The issues of improving the tools that assessing the risk of material misstatement of the financial statements due to fraud from the standpoint the fraud theory have been examined here. Determining potential areas in which methodology for risk assessment of material misstatement of the financial statements due to fraud in an audit are based on the modern fraud theory interpretations will be develop. Functional and structural, comparative, logical and historical, deductive and inductive analyst methods have been used. Retrospective analysis on research areas in the fraud theory field has been performed. Perspective directions for improving methodology and methods for risk assessment of material misstatement of the financial statements in an audit have been identified. Methodology development for fraud risk assessment procedures in an audit of financial statements is based on “fraud diamond” theory. Creating new interpretations the fraud theory during last fifteen years is a consequence the expansion opportunities for corporate fraud, one of the most common species which is the financial statements falsification. Changing the list of factors that could initiate the fraud in the company's public reporting requires that the methods of its identification during the audit should be improved. Methodology and methods risk assessment of intentional material misstatement of the financial statements need to be improved in the direction both the modern modification of fraud theory.

A theory-based approach to understanding suicide risk in shelter-seeking women.

Science.gov (United States)

Wolford-Clevenger, Caitlin; Smith, Phillip N

2015-04-01

Women seeking shelter from intimate partner violence are at an increased risk for suicide ideation and attempts compared to women in the general population. Control-based violence, which is common among shelter-seeking women, may play a pivotal role in the development of suicide ideation and attempts. Current risk assessment and management practices for shelter-seeking women are limited by the lack of an empirically grounded understanding of increased risk in this population. We argue that in order to more effectively promote risk assessment and management, an empirically supported theory that is sensitive to the experiences of shelter-seeking women is needed. Such a theory-driven approach has the benefits of identifying and prioritizing targetable areas for intervention. Here, we review the evidence for the link between coercive control and suicide ideation and attempts from the perspective of Baumeister's escape theory of suicide. This theory has the potential to explain the role of coercive control in the development of suicide ideation and eventual attempts in shelter-seeking women. Implications for suicide risk assessment and prevention in domestic violence shelters are discussed. © The Author(s) 2014.

Informal Risk Perceptions and Formal Theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cayford, Jerry

2001-01-01

Economists have argued persuasively that our goals are wider than just risk minimization, and that they include a prudent weighing of costs and benefits. This economic line of thought recognizes that our policy goals are complex. As we widen the range of goals we are willing to entertain, though, we need to check that the methods we customarily employ are appropriate for the tasks to which we customarily apply them. This paper examines some economic methods of risk assessment, in light of the question of what our policy goals are and should be. Once the question of goals is open, more complexities than just cost intrude: what the public wants and why begs to be addressed. This leads us to the controversial issue of public risk perceptions. We have now examined a number of procedures that experts use to make public policy decisions. Behind all these issues is always the question of social welfare: what actions can we take, what policies should we embrace, to make the world a better place? In many cases, the public and the experts disagree about what the right choice is. In the first section, we saw a possible defense of the experts based on democratic theory: the people's participation, and even their will, can be legitimately set aside in the pursuit of their true interests. If this defense is to work, a great deal of weight rests on the question of the people's interests and the competence and integrity of the experts' pursuit of it. But at the same time, social preferences are ill-defined, and so are not good candidates for rational actor theory. Both the prescriptive legitimacy claim and the very workings of formal theory we have seen to depend on informal, qualitative, political judgments. Unfortunately, we have also seen a steady pattern of expert reliance on technical procedures even when they were manifestly unsuited to the task. The experts seem so intent on excluding informal thought that they would prefer even a bad quantitative process to a qualitative

Informal Risk Perceptions and Formal Theory

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cayford, Jerry [Resources for the Future, Washington, DC (United States)

2001-07-01

Economists have argued persuasively that our goals are wider than just risk minimization, and that they include a prudent weighing of costs and benefits. This economic line of thought recognizes that our policy goals are complex. As we widen the range of goals we are willing to entertain, though, we need to check that the methods we customarily employ are appropriate for the tasks to which we customarily apply them. This paper examines some economic methods of risk assessment, in light of the question of what our policy goals are and should be. Once the question of goals is open, more complexities than just cost intrude: what the public wants and why begs to be addressed. This leads us to the controversial issue of public risk perceptions. We have now examined a number of procedures that experts use to make public policy decisions. Behind all these issues is always the question of social welfare: what actions can we take, what policies should we embrace, to make the world a better place? In many cases, the public and the experts disagree about what the right choice is. In the first section, we saw a possible defense of the experts based on democratic theory: the people's participation, and even their will, can be legitimately set aside in the pursuit of their true interests. If this defense is to work, a great deal of weight rests on the question of the people's interests and the competence and integrity of the experts' pursuit of it. But at the same time, social preferences are ill-defined, and so are not good candidates for rational actor theory. Both the prescriptive legitimacy claim and the very workings of formal theory we have seen to depend on informal, qualitative, political judgments. Unfortunately, we have also seen a steady pattern of expert reliance on technical procedures even when they were manifestly unsuited to the task. The experts seem so intent on excluding informal thought that they would prefer even a bad quantitative process to

Social Science Theories on Adolescent Risk-Taking: The Relevance of Behavioral Inhibition and Activation

Science.gov (United States)

Vermeersch, Hans; T'Sjoen, Guy; Kaufman, Jean-Marc; Van Houtte, Mieke

2013-01-01

The major social science theories on adolescent risk-taking--strain, social control, and differential association theories--have received substantial empirical support. The relationships between variables central to these theories and individual differences in temperament related to risk-taking, however, have not been adequately studied. In a…

Cultural theory and risk perception: validity and utility explored in the French context

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brenot, J.; Bonnefous, S.; Mays, C.

1996-01-01

Explaining perceived risk can draw upon factors related to the person (e.g. demographics, personality, social/professional status, political orientation), or to the risk source (e.g. health impacts, economic effects). According to Cultural Theory risk perceptions are culturally biased. Wildavsky and Dake operationalised the Cultural Theory with questionnaire scales and found that resulting 'cultural profiles' best predict individual differences in risk perception. A French version of their questionnaire was inserted into a representative national risk opinion survey of May 1993; 1022 adults (age 18 and over) were interviewed. Major results are presented. The four cultural scales (hierarchy, egalitarianism, fatalism and individualism) show high correlations with political orientation as expected, but also with, for example, age, gender, income and education level. However, scale relationships to perception of risk situations (twenty, mainly technological) are not as strong as expected. Sjoeberg found similar results in Sweden. The utility of the existing operationalisation of Cultural Theory for risk perception analysis is discussed. (author)

Cultural theory and risk perception: validity and utility explored in the French context

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Brenot, J.; Bonnefous, S.; Mays, C. [CEA Centre d`Etudes de Fontenay-aux-Roses, 92 (France). Inst. de Protection et de Surete Nucleaire

1996-12-31

Explaining perceived risk can draw upon factors related to the person (e.g. demographics, personality, social/professional status, political orientation), or to the risk source (e.g. health impacts, economic effects). According to Cultural Theory risk perceptions are culturally biased. Wildavsky and Dake operationalised the Cultural Theory with questionnaire scales and found that resulting `cultural profiles` best predict individual differences in risk perception. A French version of their questionnaire was inserted into a representative national risk opinion survey of May 1993; 1022 adults (age 18 and over) were interviewed. Major results are presented. The four cultural scales (hierarchy, egalitarianism, fatalism and individualism) show high correlations with political orientation as expected, but also with, for example, age, gender, income and education level. However, scale relationships to perception of risk situations (twenty, mainly technological) are not as strong as expected. Sjoeberg found similar results in Sweden. The utility of the existing operationalisation of Cultural Theory for risk perception analysis is discussed. (author).

Forewarning model for water pollution risk based on Bayes theory.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Jun; Jin, Juliang; Guo, Qizhong; Chen, Yaqian; Lu, Mengxiong; Tinoco, Luis

2014-02-01

In order to reduce the losses by water pollution, forewarning model for water pollution risk based on Bayes theory was studied. This model is built upon risk indexes in complex systems, proceeding from the whole structure and its components. In this study, the principal components analysis is used to screen out index systems. Hydrological model is employed to simulate index value according to the prediction principle. Bayes theory is adopted to obtain posterior distribution by prior distribution with sample information which can make samples' features preferably reflect and represent the totals to some extent. Forewarning level is judged on the maximum probability rule, and then local conditions for proposing management strategies that will have the effect of transforming heavy warnings to a lesser degree. This study takes Taihu Basin as an example. After forewarning model application and vertification for water pollution risk from 2000 to 2009 between the actual and simulated data, forewarning level in 2010 is given as a severe warning, which is well coincide with logistic curve. It is shown that the model is rigorous in theory with flexible method, reasonable in result with simple structure, and it has strong logic superiority and regional adaptability, providing a new way for warning water pollution risk.

Game Theory and Risk-Based Levee System Design

Science.gov (United States)

Hui, R.; Lund, J. R.; Madani, K.

2014-12-01

Risk-based analysis has been developed for optimal levee design for economic efficiency. Along many rivers, two levees on opposite riverbanks act as a simple levee system. Being rational and self-interested, land owners on each river bank would tend to independently optimize their levees with risk-based analysis, resulting in a Pareto-inefficient levee system design from the social planner's perspective. Game theory is applied in this study to analyze decision making process in a simple levee system in which the land owners on each river bank develop their design strategies using risk-based economic optimization. For each land owner, the annual expected total cost includes expected annual damage cost and annualized construction cost. The non-cooperative Nash equilibrium is identified and compared to the social planner's optimal distribution of flood risk and damage cost throughout the system which results in the minimum total flood cost for the system. The social planner's optimal solution is not feasible without appropriate level of compensation for the transferred flood risk to guarantee and improve conditions for all parties. Therefore, cooperative game theory is then employed to develop an economically optimal design that can be implemented in practice. By examining the game in the reversible and irreversible decision making modes, the cost of decision making myopia is calculated to underline the significance of considering the externalities and evolution path of dynamic water resource problems for optimal decision making.

Task difficulty, risk, effort and comfort in a simulated driving task--Implications for Risk Allostasis Theory.

Science.gov (United States)

Lewis-Evans, Ben; Rothengatter, Talib

2009-09-01

Risk Allostasis Theory states that drivers seek to maintain a feeling of risk within a preferred range [Fuller, R., 2008. What drives the driver? Surface tensions and hidden consensus. In: Keynote at the 4th International Conference on Traffic and Transport Psychology, Washington, DC, August 31-September 4, 2008]. Risk Allostasis Theory is the latest version of Task-Difficulty Homeostasis theory, and is in part based on the findings of experiments where participants were asked to rate the task difficulty, feeling of risk and chance of collision of scenes shown in digitally altered video clips [Fuller, R., McHugh, C., Pender, S., 2008b. Task difficulty and risk in the determination of driver behaviour. Revue européenne de psychologie appliqée 58, 13-21]. The focus of the current research was to expand upon the previous video based experiments using a driving simulator. This allowed participants to be in control of the vehicle rather than acting as passive observers, as well as providing additional speed cues. The results support previous findings that ratings of task difficulty and feeling of risk are related, and that they are also highly related to ratings of effort and moderately related to ratings of comfort and habit. However, the linearly increasing trend for task difficulty and feeling of risk described by the previous research was not observed: instead the findings of this experiment support a threshold effect where ratings of risk (feeling of and chance of loss of control/collision), difficulty, effort, and comfort go through a period of stability and only start to increase once a certain threshold has been crossed. It is within the period of stability where subjective experience of risk and difficulty is low, or absent, that drivers generally prefer to operate.

Rethinking Risk: Prospect Theory Application in Health Message Framing Research.

Science.gov (United States)

Harrington, Nancy Grant; Kerr, Anna M

2017-02-01

Although prospect theory conceptualizes risk as uncertainty, health message framing research based on the theory typically conceptualizes risk as severity. This study reports the results of two experiments designed to explore these alternative conceptualizations of risk and their effect on health decision making. Participants (N 1  = 768, N 2  = 532) were randomly assigned to one of four conditions that presented a hypothetical scenario of a sexually transmitted disease (STD) outbreak. The conditions were defined by message prompt (deadly vs. easily curable STD) and response option frame (gain vs. loss). Participants selected which of two programs (certain outcome vs. uncertain outcome) they would prefer to combat the outbreak. Across both experiments, participants expressed strong preferences for certain (low risk) outcomes in the gain-framed conditions and no preferences in the loss-framed conditions. These differences held regardless of the consequence severity of the scenario. We discuss the theoretical and practical implications of these results and offer directions for future research.

Prospect theory on the brain? Toward a cognitive neuroscience of decision under risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Trepel, Christopher; Fox, Craig R; Poldrack, Russell A

2005-04-01

Most decisions must be made without advance knowledge of their consequences. Economists and psychologists have devoted much attention to modeling decisions made under conditions of risk in which options can be characterized by a known probability distribution over possible outcomes. The descriptive shortcomings of classical economic models motivated the development of prospect theory (D. Kahneman, A. Tversky, Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 4 (1979) 263-291; A. Tversky, D. Kahneman, Advances in prospect theory: Cumulative representation of uncertainty. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 5 (4) (1992) 297-323) the most successful behavioral model of decision under risk. In the prospect theory, subjective value is modeled by a value function that is concave for gains, convex for losses, and steeper for losses than for gains; the impact of probabilities are characterized by a weighting function that overweights low probabilities and underweights moderate to high probabilities. We outline the possible neural bases of the components of prospect theory, surveying evidence from human imaging, lesion, and neuropharmacology studies as well as animal neurophysiology studies. These results provide preliminary suggestions concerning the neural bases of prospect theory that include a broad set of brain regions and neuromodulatory systems. These data suggest that focused studies of decision making in the context of quantitative models may provide substantial leverage towards a fuller understanding of the cognitive neuroscience of decision making.

Small- and large-stakes risk aversion: implications of concavity calabration for decision theory

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Cox, J.C.; Sadiraj, V.

2006-01-01

A growing literature reports the conclusions that: (a) expected utility theory does not provide a plausible theory of risk aversion for both small-stakes and large-stakes gambles; and (b) this decision theory should be replaced with an alternative theory characterized by loss aversion. This paper

A review of game theory approach to cyber security risk management

African Journals Online (AJOL)

A review of game theory approach to cyber security risk management. ... This paper presents a review of game theoretic-based model for cyber security risk management. Specifically, issues on ... AJOL African Journals Online. HOW TO USE ...

a review of game theory approach to cyber security risk management

African Journals Online (AJOL)

HOD

Keywords: Cyber Security, Risk Management, Game Theory, Model. 1. INTRODUCTION. Risk is ... behaviors. This implies they are triggered by self- motivated goal .... embrace diligence verification of the recipient of the email as well as lack of ...

Applying Ecodevelopmental Theory and the Theory of Reasoned Action to Understand HIV Risk Behaviors Among Hispanic Adolescents.

Science.gov (United States)

Ortega, Johis; Huang, Shi; Prado, Guillermo

2012-01-03

HIV/AIDS is listed as one of the top 10 reasons for the death of Hispanics between the ages of 15 and 54 in the United States. This cross sectional, descriptive secondary study proposed that using both the systemic (ecodevelopmental) and the individually focused (theory of reasoned action) theories together would lead to an increased understanding of the risk and protective factors that influence HIV risk behaviors in this population. The sample consisted of 493 Hispanic adolescent 7th and 8th graders and their immigrant parents living in Miami, Florida. Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) was used for the data analysis. Family functioning emerged as the heart of the model, embedded within a web of direct and mediated relationships. The data support the idea that family can play a central role in the prevention of Hispanic adolescents' risk behaviors.

Risk Route Choice Analysis and the Equilibrium Model under Anticipated Regret Theory

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

pengcheng yuan

2014-02-01

Full Text Available The assumption about travellers’ route choice behaviour has major influence on the traffic flow equilibrium analysis. Previous studies about the travellers’ route choice were mainly based on the expected utility maximization theory. However, with the gradually increasing knowledge about the uncertainty of the transportation system, the researchers have realized that there is much constraint in expected util­ity maximization theory, because expected utility maximiza­tion requires travellers to be ‘absolutely rational’; but in fact, travellers are not truly ‘absolutely rational’. The anticipated regret theory proposes an alternative framework to the tra­ditional risk-taking in route choice behaviour which might be more scientific and reasonable. We have applied the antici­pated regret theory to the analysis of the risk route choosing process, and constructed an anticipated regret utility func­tion. By a simple case which includes two parallel routes, the route choosing results influenced by the risk aversion degree, regret degree and the environment risk degree have been analyzed. Moreover, the user equilibrium model based on the anticipated regret theory has been established. The equivalence and the uniqueness of the model are proved; an efficacious algorithm is also proposed to solve the model. Both the model and the algorithm are demonstrated in a real network. By an experiment, the model results and the real data have been compared. It was found that the model re­sults can be similar to the real data if a proper regret degree parameter is selected. This illustrates that the model can better explain the risk route choosing behaviour. Moreover, it was also found that the traveller’ regret degree increases when the environment becomes more and more risky.

Supply Chain Disruptions Theory and Practice of Managing Risk

CERN Document Server

Mehrotra, Anuj; Ray, Saibal

2012-01-01

One of the most critical issues facing supply chain managers in today’s globalized and highly uncertain business environments is how to deal proactively with disruptions that might affect the complicated supply networks characterizing modern enterprises. Supply Chain Disruptions: Theory and Practice of Managing Risk presents a state-of the-art perspective on this particular issue. Supply Chain Disruptions: Theory and Practice of Managing Risk demonstrates that effective management of supply disruptions necessitates both strategic and tactical measures – the former involving optimal design of supply networks; the latter involving inventory, finance and demand management. It shows that managers ought to use all available levers at their disposal throughout the supply network – like sourcing and pricing strategies, providing financial subsidies, encouraging information sharing and incentive alignment between supply chain partners – in order to tackle supply disruptions. The editors combine up-to-date aca...

Does prospect theory warrant a paradigm shift in the economics of risk?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

PL Mohapi

2014-07-01

Full Text Available This paper assesses whether a paradigm shift should be made from expected utility framework to prospect theory framework – in the economics of choice under risk. A brief overview of the subject is outlined, starting with expected utility theory and noting its descriptive limitations. Proposed theories to make up for these limitations is also provided. Prospect theory emerged as the most serious challenger to expected utility theory. A review of some descriptive predictions of prospect theory, suggests that there is no scientific reason why expected utility should not be ousted from dominance by prospect theory. The shift to prospect theory however is not without costs. Conceptual complexities and non-universality of application associated with prospect theory should be embraced with the shift while not entirely abandoning expected utility theory.

Agency Theory, Futures Markets and Risk Shifting in Commodity Marketing Channels

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kuwornu, J.K.M.; Kuiper, W.E.; Pennings, J.M.E.; Meulenberg, M.T.G.

2004-01-01

This paper applies agency theory to access risk shifting between the principal (marketing firms) and the agent (farmers) in a food marketing channel. It compares the case in which there is a futures market available for the risk-averse agents with the case in which there is no futures trading. The

Synthesis strategy: building a culturally sensitive mid-range theory of risk perception using literary, quantitative, and qualitative methods.

Science.gov (United States)

Siaki, Leilani A; Loescher, Lois J; Trego, Lori L

2013-03-01

This article presents a discussion of development of a mid-range theory of risk perception. Unhealthy behaviours contribute to the development of health inequalities worldwide. The link between perceived risk and successful health behaviour change is inconclusive, particularly in vulnerable populations. This may be attributed to inattention to culture. The synthesis strategy of theory building guided the process using three methods: (1) a systematic review of literature published between 2000-2011 targeting perceived risk in vulnerable populations; (2) qualitative and (3) quantitative data from a study of Samoan Pacific Islanders at high risk of cardiovascular disease and diabetes. Main concepts of this theory include risk attention, appraisal processes, cognition, and affect. Overarching these concepts is health-world view: cultural ways of knowing, beliefs, values, images, and ideas. This theory proposes the following: (1) risk attention varies based on knowledge of the health risk in the context of health-world views; (2) risk appraisals are influenced by affect, health-world views, cultural customs, and protocols that intersect with the health risk; (3) strength of cultural beliefs, values, and images (cultural identity) mediate risk attention and risk appraisal influencing the likelihood that persons will engage in health-promoting behaviours that may contradict cultural customs/protocols. Interventions guided by a culturally sensitive mid-range theory may improve behaviour-related health inequalities in vulnerable populations. The synthesis strategy is an intensive process for developing a culturally sensitive mid-range theory. Testing of the theory will ascertain its usefulness for reducing health inequalities in vulnerable groups. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Anticipatory vigilance: A grounded theory study of minimising risk within the perioperative setting.

Science.gov (United States)

O'Brien, Brid; Andrews, Tom; Savage, Eileen

2018-01-01

To explore and explain how nurses minimise risk in the perioperative setting. Perioperative nurses care for patients who are having surgery or other invasive explorative procedures. Perioperative care is increasingly focused on how to improve patient safety. Safety and risk management is a global priority for health services in reducing risk. Many studies have explored safety within the healthcare settings. However, little is known about how nurses minimise risk in the perioperative setting. Classic grounded theory. Ethical approval was granted for all aspects of the study. Thirty-seven nurses working in 11 different perioperative settings in Ireland were interviewed and 33 hr of nonparticipant observation was undertaken. Concurrent data collection and analysis was undertaken using theoretical sampling. Constant comparative method, coding and memoing and were used to analyse the data. Participants' main concern was how to minimise risk. Participants resolved this through engaging in anticipatory vigilance (core category). This strategy consisted of orchestrating, routinising and momentary adapting. Understanding the strategies of anticipatory vigilance extends and provides an in-depth explanation of how nurses' behaviour ensures that risk is minimised in a complex high-risk perioperative setting. This is the first theory situated in the perioperative area for nurses. This theory provides a guide and understanding for nurses working in the perioperative setting on how to minimise risk. It makes perioperative nursing visible enabling positive patient outcomes. This research suggests the need for training and education in maintaining safety and minimising risk in the perioperative setting. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Testing the cultural theory of risk in France

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brenot, J.; Bonnefous, S.; Marris, C.

1998-01-01

Cultural Theory, as developed by Mary Douglas, argues that differing risk perceptions can be explained by reference to four distinct cultural biases: hierarchy, egalitarianism, individualism, and fatalism. This paper presents empirical results from a quantitative survey based on a questionnaire devised by Karl Dake to measure these cultural biases. A large representative sample was used to test this instrument in the French social context. Correlations between cultural biases and perceptions of 20 social and environmental risks were examined. These correlations were very weak, but were statistically significant: cultural biases explained 6%, at most, of the variance in risk perceptions. Standard socio-demographic variables were also weakly related to risk perceptions (especially gender, social class, and education), and cultural biases and socio-demographic variables were themselves intercorrelated (especially with age, social class, and political outlook). The authors compare these results with surveys conducted in other countries using the same instrument and conclude that new methods, more qualitative and contextual, still need to be developed to investigate the cultural dimensions of risk perceptions. The paper also discusses relationships between perceptions of personal and residual risk, and between perceived risk and demand for additional safety measures. These three dimensions were generally closely related, but interesting differences were observed for some risk issues. Included in the list of risk perceptions were pollution, hazardous materials, and radioactive wastes

Executive Risk Propensity and Accounting Conservatism Through the Lens of Life History Theory

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Holm, Morten; Schneider, Melanie L.

First, we intend to investigate the impact of CFO risk propensity on accounting conservatism. Second, we will examine the role of CEOs in this context. By drawing on life history theory, we propose variables reflecting executive risk propensity. Based on this, we hypothesize that CFO risk...

Research on Liquidity Risk Evaluation of Chinese A-Shares Market Based on Extension Theory

Science.gov (United States)

Bai-Qing, Sun; Peng-Xiang, Liu; Lin, Zhang; Yan-Ge, Li

This research defines the liquidity risk of stock market in matter-element theory and affair-element theory, establishes the indicator system of the forewarning for liquidity risks,designs the model and the process of early warning using the extension set method, extension dependent function and the comprehensive evaluation model. And the paper studies empirically A-shares market through the data of 1A0001, which prove that the model can better describe liquidity risk of China’s A-share market. At last, it gives the corresponding policy recommendations.

DO SELF-THEORIES EXPLAIN OVERCONFIDENCE AND FINANCIAL RISK TAKING? A field experiment.

OpenAIRE

Bertrand Koebel; André Schmitt; Sandrine Spaeter

2015-01-01

How people develop beliefs about themselves (self-theories) plays an important role on motivation and achievement as shown by Carol Dweck’s life-long research. In this paper, we conduct a field experiment to investigate whether self-theories impact overconfidence and risk taking. Self-theories deal with how an individual perceives some of her attributes such as intelligence, personality or moral character. In this paper, we are interested by how people perceive their mindset (fixed or growth)...

Modeling OPEC behavior: theories of risk aversion for oil producer decisions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reynolds, D.B.

1999-01-01

Theories of OPEC such as price leadership, cartel, or game theoretic models suggest an incentive for OPEC members to expand their production capacity well above current levels in order to maximize revenues. Yet individual OPEC members consistently explore for and develop oil fields at a level well below their potential. The cause of low oil exploration and development efforts among OPEC members, and even some non-OPEC members, may have to do with risk aversion. This paper describes an alternative theory for OPEC behavior based on risk aversion using a two piece non-Neumann-Morgenstern utility function similar to Fishburn and Koehenberger (1979, Decision Science 10, 503-518), and Friedman and Savage (1948, Journal of political Economy 56). The model shows possible low oil production behavior. (author)

Managing Reputational Risk through Environmental Management and Reporting: An Options Theory Approach

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Juan Pineiro-Chousa

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Reputation is a complex and multidimensional concept that may be organized in downside and upside reputational risk. In this article, we present a formal modelling for the management capabilities of environmental management and reporting over reputational risk, considering that reputational risk is becoming increasingly important for organizations and it directly depends on the information available about companies’ environmental performances. As long as the effectiveness of communication and disclosure plays a key role in the process, the usefulness of environmental management and reporting as a hedging instrument for reputational risk is addressed through different levels of information transparency. When considering a scenario of voluntary reporting, we show that environmentally concerned companies can reduce the cost of environmental management as a reputational risk strategy, as well as reducing the potential loss of reputational value from reputational threats and increasing the potential profit from reputational opportunities. In the context of mandatory reporting, we highlight the role of assurance companies as bearers of the risk of bad reputations for non-concerned companies. As a result, this novel approach applies theoretical oriented research from options theory to reputational risk management literature, so that it benefits from the option’s well known theory, robustness, and conclusions.

Evaluating Risk Communication After the Fukushima Disaster Based on Nudge Theory.

Science.gov (United States)

Murakami, Michio; Tsubokura, Masaharu

2017-03-01

Using nudge theory and some examples of risk communication that followed the Fukushima disaster, this article discusses the influences and justifications of risk communication, in addition to how risk communication systems are designed. To assist people in making decisions based on their own value systems, we provide three suggestions, keeping in mind that people can be influenced (ie, "nudged") depending on how risk communication takes place: (1) accumulate knowledge on the process of evaluating how the method of risk communication and a system's default design could impact people; (2) clarify the purpose and outcomes of risk communication; and (3) see what risk communication might be ethically unjustifiable. Quantitative studies on risk communication and collective narratives will provide some ideas for how to design better risk communication systems and to help people make decisions. Furthermore, we have shown examples of unjustifiable risk communication.

Risk Taking under the Influence: A Fuzzy-Trace Theory of Emotion in Adolescence

Science.gov (United States)

Rivers, Susan E.; Reyna, Valerie F.; Mills, Britain

2008-01-01

Fuzzy-trace theory explains risky decision making in children, adolescents, and adults, incorporating social and cultural factors as well as differences in impulsivity. Here, we provide an overview of the theory, including support for counterintuitive predictions (e.g., when adolescents "rationally" weigh costs and benefits, risk taking increases,…

Can prospect theory explain risk-seeking behavior by terminally ill patients?

Science.gov (United States)

Rasiel, Emma B; Weinfurt, Kevin P; Schulman, Kevin A

2005-01-01

Patients with life-threatening conditions sometimes appear to make risky treatment decisions as their condition declines, contradicting the risk-averse behavior predicted by expected utility theory. Prospect theory accommodates such decisions by describing how individuals evaluate outcomes relative to a reference point and how they exhibit risk-seeking behavior over losses relative to that point. The authors show that a patient's reference point for his or her health is a key factor in determining which treatment option the patient selects, and they examine under what circumstances the more risky option is selected. The authors argue that patients' reference points may take time to adjust following a change in diagnosis, with implications for predicting under what circumstances a patient may select experimental or conventional therapies or select no treatment.

Extreme Value Theory Approach to Simultaneous Monitoring and Thresholding of Multiple Risk Indicators

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Einmahl, J.H.J.; Li, J.; Liu, R.Y.

2006-01-01

Risk assessments often encounter extreme settings with very few or no occurrences in reality.Inferences about risk indicators in such settings face the problem of insufficient data.Extreme value theory is particularly well suited for handling this type of problems.This paper uses a multivariate

A THEORY OF CONSUMER’S PERCEIVED RISK UNDER THE HALO EFFECT

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Dorian-Laurenţiu FLOREA

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Despite being largely tackled by a manifold of sciences, perceived risk is still a rather unclear concept concerning its formation and update. In today’s economy, where poor purchase decisions are so easy to make, consumers have developed mental shields residing in actions based on perceived risk. This paper develops and tests a theory of perceived risk formation under the halo effect, based on correlation analysis in two forms: rankings individuals on their contribution to the correlations increase and partial correlations. Both internal and external halo effects were found, emerging from the perceived risk component – functional risk, financial risk, social risk, physical risk, psychological risk and time risk –, brand attitude, product category attitude, consumer’s regret, others’ regret expressed through word-of-mouth, recency, and awareness of awareness. The intricate halo that was revealed needs further attention from the scientific community in order to better delimit halo sources and, eventually, to explain its variability.

Differential risk theory as a subset of social exchange theory: implications for making gay marriage culturally normative and for understanding stigma against homosexuals.

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Schumm, Walter R

2004-02-01

Differential risk theory, a subset of social exchange and equity theories, is proposed as an explanation for stigma towards homosexuals and as a basis for normative preferences for heterosexual marriage. Numerous gender differences involved in long-term relationships require members of such close relationships to assume greater interpersonal and social risks and thus costs, compared to same-gender relationships. Without compensating rewards or reduced costs, heterosexual relationships would be unfairly disadvantaged. Resistance to making gay marriage normative and/or equivalent legally to heterosexual marriage may be traced, rather than to homophobia, to societal attempts to maintain equity between classes of relationships characterized by inherent differential risks.

Interest in and reactions to genetic risk information: The role of implicit theories and self-affirmation.

Science.gov (United States)

Taber, Jennifer M; Klein, William M P; Persky, Susan; Ferrer, Rebecca A; Kaufman, Annette R; Thai, Chan L; Harris, Peter R

2017-10-01

Implicit theories reflect core assumptions about whether human attributes are malleable or fixed: Incremental theorists believe a characteristic is malleable whereas entity theorists believe it is fixed. People with entity theories about health may be less likely to engage in risk-mitigating behavior. Spontaneous self-affirmation (e.g., reflecting on one's values when threatened) may lessen defensiveness and unhealthy behaviors associated with fixed beliefs, and reduce the likelihood of responding to health risk information with fixed beliefs. Across two studies conducted in the US from 2012 to 2015, we investigated how self-affirmation and implicit theories about health and body weight were linked to engagement with genetic risk information. In Study 1, participants in a genome sequencing trial (n = 511) completed cross-sectional assessments of implicit theories, self-affirmation, and intentions to learn, share, and use genetic information. In Study 2, overweight women (n = 197) were randomized to receive genetic or behavioral explanations for weight; participants completed surveys assessing implicit theories, self-affirmation, self-efficacy, motivation, and intentions. Fixed beliefs about weight were infrequently endorsed across studies (10.8-15.2%). In Study 1, participants with stronger fixed theories were less interested in learning and using genetic risk information about medically actionable disease; these associations were weaker among participants higher in self-affirmation. In Study 2, among participants given behavioral explanations for weight, stronger fixed theories about weight were associated with lower motivation and intentions to eat a healthy diet. Among participants given genetic explanations, being higher in self-affirmation was associated with less fixed beliefs. Stronger health-related fixed theories may decrease the likelihood of benefiting from genetic information, but less so for people who self-affirm. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

The relevance of the early history of probability theory to current risk assessment practices in mental health care.

Science.gov (United States)

Large, Matthew

2013-12-01

Probability theory is at the base of modern concepts of risk assessment in mental health. The aim of the current paper is to review the key developments in the early history of probability theory in order to enrich our understanding of current risk assessment practices.

Adolescent insomnia, suicide risk, and the interpersonal theory of suicide.

Science.gov (United States)

Zullo, Lucas; Horton, Sarah; Eaddy, Michael; King, Jessica; Hughes, Jennifer; Diederich, Andrew; Kennard, Betsy; Emslie, Graham; Stewart, Sunita

2017-11-01

Although insomnia has been repeatedly linked with suicide ideation, the reason for the linkage is not clear. The Interpersonal Psychological Theory of Suicide (IPTS) proposes that three core variables (thwarted belongingness, perceived burdensomeness, and acquired capability) are the final common pathway for all risk factors for suicide ideation and behavior. Recent research has suggested that insomnia may be associated with suicide ideation independently of the IPTS. We examined cross-sectional data from 151 psychiatric inpatients (ages 12-17) to determine if the association between insomnia symptoms and a continuous measure of suicide risk (measured as increasingly severe ideation and plan) was explained by the framework of the IPTS. When all IPTS variables and depressive symptoms were included in the model, insomnia symptoms did not contribute unique variance to suicide risk. Perceived burdensomeness and depressive symptoms were found to explain the relationship between insomnia symptoms and suicide risk. Our findings suggest that improved sleep might reduce suicide risk, that management of interpersonal need cognitions might reduce risk in the presence of insomnia symptoms, and reinforce the independent role of depressive symptoms in suicide risk in clinical samples of adolescents. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Supply risk management from a transaction cost and social exchange theory perspective

OpenAIRE

Hoffmann, Petra; Schiele, Holger; Song, Michael; Krabbendam, Johannes Jacobus

2012-01-01

Supply risk management gained prominence over the last decade, both in the academic discourse and in practical application. This research examines the influence of Transaction Cost characteristics -behavioral uncertainty, environmental uncertainty and asset specificity on supply risk management performance. We also identify two antecedents of the transaction cost constructs based on social exchange theory: dependency and preferred customer status. We used survey data to discover a positive in...

Financial risk and derivatives a special issue of the geneva papers on risk and insurance theory

CERN Document Server

Subrahmanyam, Marti

1996-01-01

Financial Risk and Derivatives provides an excellent illustration of the links that have developed in recent years between the theory of finance on one hand and insurance economics and actuarial science on the other. Advances in contingent claims analysis and developments in the academic and practical literature dealing with the management of financial risks reflect the close relationships between insurance and innovations in finance. The book represents an overview of the present state of the art in theoretical research dealing with financial issues of significance for insurance science. It will hopefully provide an impetus to further developments in applied insurance research.

Do politicians take risks like the rest of us? An experimental test of prospect theory under MPs

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Linde, J.; Vis, B.

Political psychologists have been quick to use prospect theory in their work, realizing its potential for explaining decisions under risk. Applying prospect theory to political decision-making is not without problems, though, and here we address two of these: (1) Does prospect theory actually apply

Do Politicians Take Risks Like the Rest of Us? An Experimental Test of Prospect Theory Under MPs

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Linde, Jona; Vis, Barbara

Political psychologists have been quick to use prospect theory in their work, realizing its potential for explaining decisions under risk. Applying prospect theory to political decision-making is not without problems, though, and here we address two of these: (1) Does prospect theory actually apply

At-risk students and the role of implicit theories of intelligence in educational professionals’ actions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Tiekstra, Marlous; Minnaert, Alexander

2017-01-01

Implicit theories of intelligence play a role in teacher's actions. Adaptive instruction in and out of the classroom is important to optimize learning processes, especially in the case of at-risk students. This study explored to what extent implicit theories of intelligence play a role in the

Gambler Risk Perception: A Mental Model and Grounded Theory Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Spurrier, Michael; Blaszczynski, Alexander; Rhodes, Paul

2015-09-01

Few studies have investigated how gamblers perceive risk or the role of risk perception in disordered gambling. The purpose of the current study therefore was to obtain data on lay gamblers' beliefs on these variables and their effects on decision-making, behaviour, and disordered gambling aetiology. Fifteen regular lay gamblers (non-problem/low risk, moderate risk and problem gamblers) completed a semi-structured interview following mental models and grounded theory methodologies. Gambler interview data was compared to an expert 'map' of risk-perception, to identify comparative gaps or differences associated with harmful or safe gambling. Systematic overlapping processes of data gathering and analysis were used to iteratively extend, saturate, test for exception, and verify concepts and themes emerging from the data. The preliminary findings suggested that gambler accounts supported the presence of expert conceptual constructs, and to some degree the role of risk perception in protecting against or increasing vulnerability to harm and disordered gambling. Gambler accounts of causality, meaning, motivation, and strategy were highly idiosyncratic, and often contained content inconsistent with measures of disordered gambling. Disordered gambling appears heavily influenced by relative underestimation of risk and overvaluation of gambling, based on explicit and implicit analysis, and deliberate, innate, contextual, and learned processing evaluations and biases.

A Mental Value Perspective in Risk Decision Theory

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Alexandru Trifu

2006-09-01

Full Text Available This work is based on Prospect theory, which was developed by D. Kahneman and A. Tversky in 1979. This is one the most quoted and best-documented point of view in economic psychology. First of all, it replaces, once again, the notion of utility with value. But value is defined in terms of gains and losses and this, according with an irrational human tendency to be less willing to gamble with profits than with losses. So, we discover the great importance of these assumptions in the field of risk decision-making, especially for firms’ activity in the marketplace.

A Mental Value Perspective in Risk Decision Theory

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Roxana Davidescu

2006-07-01

Full Text Available This work is based on Prospect theory, which was developed by D. Kahneman and A. Tversky in 1979. This is one the most quoted and best-documented point of view in economic psychology. First of all, it replaces, once again, the notion of utility with value. But value is defined in terms of gains and losses and this, according with an irrational human tendency to be less willing to gamble with profits than with losses. So, we discover the great importance of these assumptions in the field of risk decision-making, especially for firms’ activity in the marketplace.

Prospect theory and body mass: characterizing psychological parameters for weight-related risk attitudes and weight-gain aversion.

Science.gov (United States)

Lim, Seung-Lark; Bruce, Amanda S

2015-01-01

We developed a novel decision-making paradigm that allows us to apply prospect theory in behavioral economics to body mass. 67 healthy young adults completed self-report measures and two decision-making tasks for weight-loss, as well as for monetary rewards. We estimated risk-related preference and loss aversion parameters for each individual, separately for weight-loss and monetary rewards choice data. Risk-seeking tendency for weight-loss was positively correlated with body mass index in individuals who desired to lose body weight, whereas the risk-seeking for momentary rewards was not. Risk-seeking for weight-loss was correlated to excessive body shape preoccupations, while aversion to weight-gain was correlated with self-reports of behavioral involvement for successful weight-loss. We demonstrated that prospect theory can be useful in explaining the decision-making process related to body mass. Applying prospect theory is expected to advance our understanding of decision-making mechanisms in obesity, which might prove helpful for improving healthy choices.

Prospect theory and body mass: Characterizing psychological parameters for weight-related risk attitudes and weight-gain aversion

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Seung-Lark eLim

2015-03-01

Full Text Available We developed a novel decision-making paradigm that allows us to apply prospect theory in behavioral economics to body mass. 67 healthy young adults completed self-report measures and two decision-making tasks for weight-loss, as well as for monetary rewards. We estimated risk-related preference and loss aversion parameters for each individual, separately for weight-loss and monetary rewards choice data. Risk-seeking tendency for weight-loss was positively correlated with body mass index in individuals who desired to lose body weight, whereas the risk-seeking for momentary rewards was not. Risk-seeking for weight-loss was correlated to excessive body shape preoccupations, while aversion to weight-gain was correlated with self-reports of behavioral involvement for successful weight-loss. We demonstrated that prospect theory can be useful in explaining the decision-making process related to body mass. Applying prospect theory is expected to advance our understanding of decision-making mechanisms in obesity, which might prove helpful for improving healthy choices.

Exploring the feasibility of theory synthesis: a worked example in the field of health related risk-taking.

Science.gov (United States)

Pound, Pandora; Campbell, Rona

2015-01-01

The idea of synthesising theory is receiving attention within public health as part of a drive to design theoretically informed interventions. Theory synthesis is not a new idea, however, having been debated by sociologists for several decades. We consider the various methodological approaches to theory synthesis and test the feasibility of one such approach by synthesising a small number of sociological theories relevant to health related risk-taking. The synthesis consisted of three stages: (i) synthesis preparation, wherein parts of relevant theories were extracted and summarised; (ii) synthesis which involved comparing theories for points of convergence and divergence and bringing together those points that converge; and (iii) synthesis refinement whereby the synthesis was interrogated for further theoretical insights. Our synthesis suggests that serious and sustained risk-taking is associated with social isolation, liminality and a person's position in relation to the dominant social group. We reflect upon the methodological and philosophical issues raised by the practice of theory synthesis, concluding that it has the potential to reinvigorate theory and make it more robust and accessible for practical application. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

General Theory versus ENA Theory: Comparing Their Predictive Accuracy and Scope.

Science.gov (United States)

Ellis, Lee; Hoskin, Anthony; Hartley, Richard; Walsh, Anthony; Widmayer, Alan; Ratnasingam, Malini

2015-12-01

General theory attributes criminal behavior primarily to low self-control, whereas evolutionary neuroandrogenic (ENA) theory envisions criminality as being a crude form of status-striving promoted by high brain exposure to androgens. General theory predicts that self-control will be negatively correlated with risk-taking, while ENA theory implies that these two variables should actually be positively correlated. According to ENA theory, traits such as pain tolerance and muscularity will be positively associated with risk-taking and criminality while general theory makes no predictions concerning these relationships. Data from Malaysia and the United States are used to test 10 hypotheses derived from one or both of these theories. As predicted by both theories, risk-taking was positively correlated with criminality in both countries. However, contrary to general theory and consistent with ENA theory, the correlation between self-control and risk-taking was positive in both countries. General theory's prediction of an inverse correlation between low self-control and criminality was largely supported by the U.S. data but only weakly supported by the Malaysian data. ENA theory's predictions of positive correlations between pain tolerance, muscularity, and offending were largely confirmed. For the 10 hypotheses tested, ENA theory surpassed general theory in predictive scope and accuracy. © The Author(s) 2014.

Theory of Financial Risk and Derivative Pricing - 2nd Edition

Science.gov (United States)

Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe; Potters, Marc

2003-12-01

Foreword; Preface; 1. Probability theory: basic notions; 2. Maximum and addition of random variables; 3. Continuous time limit, Ito calculus and path integrals; 4. Analysis of empirical data; 5. Financial products and financial markets; 6. Statistics of real prices: basic results; 7. Non-linear correlations and volatility fluctuations; 8. Skewness and price-volatility correlations; 9. Cross-correlations; 10. Risk measures; 11. Extreme correlations and variety; 12. Optimal portfolios; 13. Futures and options: fundamental concepts; 14. Options: hedging and residual risk; 15. Options: the role of drift and correlations; 16. Options: the Black and Scholes model; 17. Options: some more specific problems; 18. Options: minimum variance Monte-Carlo; 19. The yield curve; 20. Simple mechanisms for anomalous price statistics; Index of most important symbols; Index.

Risk communication: Framing versus interdependence theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lawless, W.F.; Burns, Chad W.

1992-01-01

Prospect theory has gained wide acceptance since its introduction by Kahneman and Tversky, especially where it has been applied extensively by DOE and others. But as conceived, it is a static process theory that may not apply to dynamic environments or dynamic processes; indeed, the recent extension to group situations by one of its authors modified the original conclusions. Although most social science research is static in nature, if prospect theory is to apply to human behavior, as the authors do with their sweeping generalizations about human irrationality, because behavior is dynamic and not static, then the challenge is to study prospect theory in a dynamic environment. This study will briefly review prospect and interdependence theories, representative evidence that distinguishes between the two theories, and the implications for DOE nuclear waste management. (author)

[Reliability theory based on quality risk network analysis for Chinese medicine injection].

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Zheng; Kang, Li-Yuan; Fan, Xiao-Hui

2014-08-01

A new risk analysis method based upon reliability theory was introduced in this paper for the quality risk management of Chinese medicine injection manufacturing plants. The risk events including both cause and effect ones were derived in the framework as nodes with a Bayesian network analysis approach. It thus transforms the risk analysis results from failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) into a Bayesian network platform. With its structure and parameters determined, the network can be used to evaluate the system reliability quantitatively with probabilistic analytical appraoches. Using network analysis tools such as GeNie and AgenaRisk, we are able to find the nodes that are most critical to influence the system reliability. The importance of each node to the system can be quantitatively evaluated by calculating the effect of the node on the overall risk, and minimization plan can be determined accordingly to reduce their influences and improve the system reliability. Using the Shengmai injection manufacturing plant of SZYY Ltd as a user case, we analyzed the quality risk with both static FMEA analysis and dynamic Bayesian Network analysis. The potential risk factors for the quality of Shengmai injection manufacturing were identified with the network analysis platform. Quality assurance actions were further defined to reduce the risk and improve the product quality.

Children neglected: Where cumulative risk theory fails.

Science.gov (United States)

O'Hara, Mandy; Legano, Lori; Homel, Peter; Walker-Descartes, Ingrid; Rojas, Mary; Laraque, Danielle

2015-07-01

Neglected children, by far the majority of children maltreated, experience an environment most deficient in cognitive stimulation and language exchange. When physical abuse co-occurs with neglect, there is more stimulation through negative parent-child interaction, which may lead to better cognitive outcomes, contrary to Cumulative Risk Theory. The purpose of the current study was to assess whether children only neglected perform worse on cognitive tasks than children neglected and physically abused. Utilizing LONGSCAN archived data, 271 children only neglected and 101 children neglected and physically abused in the first four years of life were compared. The two groups were assessed at age 6 on the WPPSI-R vocabulary and block design subtests, correlates of cognitive intelligence. Regression analyses were performed, controlling for additional predictors of poor cognitive outcome, including socioeconomic variables and caregiver depression. Children only neglected scored significantly worse than children neglected and abused on the WPPSI-R vocabulary subtest (p=0.03). The groups did not differ on the block design subtest (p=0.4). This study shows that for neglected children, additional abuse may not additively accumulate risk when considering intelligence outcomes. Children experiencing only neglect may need to be referred for services that address cognitive development, with emphasis on the linguistic environment, in order to best support the developmental challenges of neglected children. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Natural disaster risk analysis for critical infrastructure systems: An approach based on statistical learning theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guikema, Seth D.

2009-01-01

Probabilistic risk analysis has historically been developed for situations in which measured data about the overall reliability of a system are limited and expert knowledge is the best source of information available. There continue to be a number of important problem areas characterized by a lack of hard data. However, in other important problem areas the emergence of information technology has transformed the situation from one characterized by little data to one characterized by data overabundance. Natural disaster risk assessments for events impacting large-scale, critical infrastructure systems such as electric power distribution systems, transportation systems, water supply systems, and natural gas supply systems are important examples of problems characterized by data overabundance. There are often substantial amounts of information collected and archived about the behavior of these systems over time. Yet it can be difficult to effectively utilize these large data sets for risk assessment. Using this information for estimating the probability or consequences of system failure requires a different approach and analysis paradigm than risk analysis for data-poor systems does. Statistical learning theory, a diverse set of methods designed to draw inferences from large, complex data sets, can provide a basis for risk analysis for data-rich systems. This paper provides an overview of statistical learning theory methods and discusses their potential for greater use in risk analysis

Market Mechanism Design for Renewable Energy based on Risk Theory

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Wu; Bo, Wang; Jichun, Liu; Wenjiao, Zai; Pingliang, Zeng; Haobo, Shi

2018-02-01

Generation trading between renewable energy and thermal power is an efficient market means for transforming supply structure of electric power into sustainable development pattern. But the trading is hampered by the output fluctuations of renewable energy and the cost differences between renewable energy and thermal power at present. In this paper, the external environmental cost (EEC) is defined and the EEC is introduced into the generation cost. At same time, the incentive functions of renewable energy and low-emission thermal power are designed, which are decreasing functions of EEC. On these bases, for the market risks caused by the random variability of EEC, the decision-making model of generation trading between renewable energy and thermal power is constructed according to the risk theory. The feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed model are verified by simulation results.

The Research on Safety Management Information System of Railway Passenger Based on Risk Management Theory

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, Wenmin; Jia, Yuanhua

2018-01-01

Based on the risk management theory and the PDCA cycle model, requirements of the railway passenger transport safety production is analyzed, and the establishment of the security risk assessment team is proposed to manage risk by FTA with Delphi from both qualitative and quantitative aspects. The safety production committee is also established to accomplish performance appraisal, which is for further ensuring the correctness of risk management results, optimizing the safety management business processes and improving risk management capabilities. The basic framework and risk information database of risk management information system of railway passenger transport safety are designed by Ajax, Web Services and SQL technologies. The system realizes functions about risk management, performance appraisal and data management, and provides an efficient and convenient information management platform for railway passenger safety manager.

Risk Modeling of Interdependent Complex Systems of Systems: Theory and Practice.

Science.gov (United States)

Haimes, Yacov Y

2018-01-01

The emergence of the complexity characterizing our systems of systems (SoS) requires a reevaluation of the way we model, assess, manage, communicate, and analyze the risk thereto. Current models for risk analysis of emergent complex SoS are insufficient because too often they rely on the same risk functions and models used for single systems. These models commonly fail to incorporate the complexity derived from the networks of interdependencies and interconnectedness (I-I) characterizing SoS. There is a need to reevaluate currently practiced risk analysis to respond to this reality by examining, and thus comprehending, what makes emergent SoS complex. The key to evaluating the risk to SoS lies in understanding the genesis of characterizing I-I of systems manifested through shared states and other essential entities within and among the systems that constitute SoS. The term "essential entities" includes shared decisions, resources, functions, policies, decisionmakers, stakeholders, organizational setups, and others. This undertaking can be accomplished by building on state-space theory, which is fundamental to systems engineering and process control. This article presents a theoretical and analytical framework for modeling the risk to SoS with two case studies performed with the MITRE Corporation and demonstrates the pivotal contributions made by shared states and other essential entities to modeling and analysis of the risk to complex SoS. A third case study highlights the multifarious representations of SoS, which require harmonizing the risk analysis process currently applied to single systems when applied to complex SoS. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Mean-variance model for portfolio optimization with background risk based on uncertainty theory

Science.gov (United States)

Zhai, Jia; Bai, Manying

2018-04-01

The aim of this paper is to develop a mean-variance model for portfolio optimization considering the background risk, liquidity and transaction cost based on uncertainty theory. In portfolio selection problem, returns of securities and assets liquidity are assumed as uncertain variables because of incidents or lacking of historical data, which are common in economic and social environment. We provide crisp forms of the model and a hybrid intelligent algorithm to solve it. Under a mean-variance framework, we analyze the portfolio frontier characteristic considering independently additive background risk. In addition, we discuss some effects of background risk and liquidity constraint on the portfolio selection. Finally, we demonstrate the proposed models by numerical simulations.

Risk analysis of gravity dam instability using credibility theory Monte Carlo simulation model.

Science.gov (United States)

Xin, Cao; Chongshi, Gu

2016-01-01

Risk analysis of gravity dam stability involves complicated uncertainty in many design parameters and measured data. Stability failure risk ratio described jointly by probability and possibility has deficiency in characterization of influence of fuzzy factors and representation of the likelihood of risk occurrence in practical engineering. In this article, credibility theory is applied into stability failure risk analysis of gravity dam. Stability of gravity dam is viewed as a hybrid event considering both fuzziness and randomness of failure criterion, design parameters and measured data. Credibility distribution function is conducted as a novel way to represent uncertainty of influence factors of gravity dam stability. And combining with Monte Carlo simulation, corresponding calculation method and procedure are proposed. Based on a dam section, a detailed application of the modeling approach on risk calculation of both dam foundation and double sliding surfaces is provided. The results show that, the present method is feasible to be applied on analysis of stability failure risk for gravity dams. The risk assessment obtained can reflect influence of both sorts of uncertainty, and is suitable as an index value.

Decision theory, the context for risk and reliability analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kaplan, S.

1985-01-01

According to this model of the decision process then, the optimum decision is that option having the largest expected utility. This is the fundamental model of a decision situation. It is necessary to remark that in order for the model to represent a real-life decision situation, it must include all the options present in that situation, including, for example, the option of not deciding--which is itself a decision, although usually not the optimum one. Similarly, it should include the option of delaying the decision while the authors gather further information. Both of these options have probabilities, outcomes, impacts, and utilities like any option and should be included explicitly in the decision diagram. The reason for doing a quantitative risk or reliability analysis is always that, somewhere underlying there is a decision to be made. The decision analysis therefore always forms the context for the risk or reliability analysis, and this context shapes the form and language of that analysis. Therefore, they give in this section a brief review of the well-known decision theory diagram

Combination of uncertainty theories and decision-aiding methods for natural risk management in a context of imperfect information

Science.gov (United States)

Tacnet, Jean-Marc; Dupouy, Guillaume; Carladous, Simon; Dezert, Jean; Batton-Hubert, Mireille

2017-04-01

In mountain areas, natural phenomena such as snow avalanches, debris-flows and rock-falls, put people and objects at risk with sometimes dramatic consequences. Risk is classically considered as a combination of hazard, the combination of the intensity and frequency of the phenomenon, and vulnerability which corresponds to the consequences of the phenomenon on exposed people and material assets. Risk management consists in identifying the risk level as well as choosing the best strategies for risk prevention, i.e. mitigation. In the context of natural phenomena in mountainous areas, technical and scientific knowledge is often lacking. Risk management decisions are therefore based on imperfect information. This information comes from more or less reliable sources ranging from historical data, expert assessments, numerical simulations etc. Finally, risk management decisions are the result of complex knowledge management and reasoning processes. Tracing the information and propagating information quality from data acquisition to decisions are therefore important steps in the decision-making process. One major goal today is therefore to assist decision-making while considering the availability, quality and reliability of information content and sources. A global integrated framework is proposed to improve the risk management process in a context of information imperfection provided by more or less reliable sources: uncertainty as well as imprecision, inconsistency and incompleteness are considered. Several methods are used and associated in an original way: sequential decision context description, development of specific multi-criteria decision-making methods, imperfection propagation in numerical modeling and information fusion. This framework not only assists in decision-making but also traces the process and evaluates the impact of information quality on decision-making. We focus and present two main developments. The first one relates to uncertainty and imprecision

Theory of planned behavior interventions for reducing heterosexual risk behaviors: A meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Tyson, Mandy; Covey, Judith; Rosenthal, Harriet E S

2014-12-01

The meta-analysis reported here examined interventions informed by the theory of planned behavior (TPB) or theory of reasoned action (TRA) aimed at reducing heterosexual risk behaviors (prevention of STDs and unwanted pregnancy). Studies were eligible for inclusion if they were either randomized control trials or quasi-experimental studies that compared the TPB-based intervention against a control group. Search strategy consisted of articles identified in previous reviews, keyword search through search engines, examination of key journals, and contacting key experts. Forty-seven intervention studies were included in the meta-analysis. Random effects models revealed that pooled effect sizes for TPB-based interventions had small but significant effects on behavior and other secondary outcomes (i.e., knowledge, attitudes, normative beliefs, perceived behavioral control, and intentions). Significant heterogeneity found between effect sizes was explored using metaregression. Larger effects were found for interventions that provided opportunities for social comparison. The TPB provides a valuable framework for designing interventions to change heterosexual risk behaviors. However, effect sizes varied quite substantially between studies, and further research is needed to explore the reasons why.

Reducing skin cancer risk: an intervention based on protection motivation theory.

Science.gov (United States)

McClendon, B T; Prentice-Dunn, S

2001-05-01

Caucasian college students who intentionally tanned participated in a brief skin cancer intervention based on protection motivation theory (PMT). This intervention targeted skin appearance and consisted of brief lectures, a comprehensive essay, video clips about a young man who died of melanoma, and short discussions. Compared to a waitlist control group, the intervention group showed increases on PMT variables and intentions at post-test. The waitlist group later received the intervention and showed similar increases. Additionally, all but one PMT variable maintained post-test levels at a one-month follow-up. Photographs taken at post-test and at the one-month follow-up were judged by raters blind to the hypothesis. Seventy-two percent of participants were judged to have lighter skin whereas only 16 percent had darker skin. These results provide additional support for theory-based methods for changing maladaptive attitudes and behaviors associated with skin cancer risk.

A Novel Dynamic Algorithm for IT Outsourcing Risk Assessment Based on Transaction Cost Theory

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Guodong Cong

2015-01-01

Full Text Available With the great risk exposed in IT outsourcing, how to assess IT outsourcing risk becomes a critical issue. However, most of approaches to date need to further adapt to the particular complexity of IT outsourcing risk for either falling short in subjective bias, inaccuracy, or efficiency. This paper proposes a dynamic algorithm of risk assessment. It initially forwards extended three layers (risk factors, risks, and risk consequences of transferring mechanism based on transaction cost theory (TCT as the framework of risk analysis, which bridges the interconnection of components in three layers with preset transferring probability and impact. Then, it establishes an equation group between risk factors and risk consequences, which assures the “attribution” more precisely to track the specific sources that lead to certain loss. Namely, in each phase of the outsourcing lifecycle, both the likelihood and the loss of each risk factor and those of each risk are acquired through solving equation group with real data of risk consequences collected. In this “reverse” way, risk assessment becomes a responsive and interactive process with real data instead of subjective estimation, which improves the accuracy and alleviates bias in risk assessment. The numerical case proves the effectiveness of the algorithm compared with the approach forwarded by other references.

Sexual transmission-risk behaviour among HIV-positive persons: a multisite study using social action theory.

Science.gov (United States)

Sullivan, Kathleen M; Dawson Rose, Carol; Phillips, J Craig; Holzemer, William L; Webel, Allison R; Nicholas, Patrice; Corless, Inge B; Kirksey, Kenn; Sanzero Eller, Lucille; Voss, Joachim; Tyer-Viola, Lynda; Portillo, Carmen; Johnson, Mallory O; Brion, John; Sefcik, Elizabeth; Nokes, Kathleen; Reid, Paula; Rivero-Mendez, Marta; Chen, Wei-Ti

2017-01-01

Sexual risk behaviour was explored and described using Social Action Theory. The sexual transmission of HIV is complex and multi-factorial. Social Action Theory provides a framework for viewing self-regulation of modifiable behaviour such as condom use. Condom use is viewed within the context of social interaction and interdependence. Cross-sectional survey. Self-report questionnaire administered to adults living with HIV/AIDS, recruited from clinics, service organizations and by active outreach, between 2010 - 2011. Having multiple sex partners with inconsistent condom use during a 3-month recall period was associated with being male, younger age, having more years of education,substance use frequency and men having sex with men being a mode of acquiring HIV. In addition, lower self-efficacy for condom use scores were associated with having multiple sex partners and inconsistent condom use. Social Action Theory provided a framework for organizing data from an international sample of seropositive persons. Interventions for sexually active, younger, HIV positive men who have sex with men, that strengthen perceived efficacy for condom use, and reduce the frequency of substance use, may contribute to reducing HIV-transmission risk. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Prospect theory or construal level theory? Diminishing sensitivity vs. psychological distance in risky decisions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Trautmann, S.T.; van de Kuilen, G.

2012-01-01

Attitudes toward risks are central to organizational decisions. These attitudes are commonly modeled by prospect theory. Construal level theory has been proposed as an alternative theory of risky choice, accounting for psychological distance deriving from temporal, spatial and social aspects of risk

A Grey Theory Based Approach to Big Data Risk Management Using FMEA

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Maisa Mendonça Silva

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Big data is the term used to denote enormous sets of data that differ from other classic databases in four main ways: (huge volume, (high velocity, (much greater variety, and (big value. In general, data are stored in a distributed fashion and on computing nodes as a result of which big data may be more susceptible to attacks by hackers. This paper presents a risk model for big data, which comprises Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA and Grey Theory, more precisely grey relational analysis. This approach has several advantages: it provides a structured approach in order to incorporate the impact of big data risk factors; it facilitates the assessment of risk by breaking down the overall risk to big data; and finally its efficient evaluation criteria can help enterprises reduce the risks associated with big data. In order to illustrate the applicability of our proposal in practice, a numerical example, with realistic data based on expert knowledge, was developed. The numerical example analyzes four dimensions, that is, managing identification and access, registering the device and application, managing the infrastructure, and data governance, and 20 failure modes concerning the vulnerabilities of big data. The results show that the most important aspect of risk to big data relates to data governance.

Extreme Value Theory and Value at Risk. Application to oil market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marimoutou, Velayoudoum; Raggad, Bechir; Trabelsi, Abdelwahed

2009-01-01

Recent increases in energy prices, especially oil prices, have become a principal concern for consumers, corporations, and governments. Most analysts believe that oil price fluctuations have considerable consequences on economic activity. Oil markets have become relatively free, resulting in a high degree of oil-price volatility and generating radical changes to world energy and oil industries. Consequently, oil markets are naturally vulnerable to significant high price shifts. An example of such a case is the oil embargo crisis of 1973. In this newly created climate, protection against market risk has become a necessity. Value at Risk (VaR) measures risk exposure at a given probability level and is very important for risk management. Appealing aspects of Extreme Value Theory (EVT) have made convincing arguments for its use in managing energy price risks. In this paper, we model VaR for long and short trading positions in oil market by applying both unconditional and conditional EVT models to forecast Value at Risk. These models are compared to the performances of other well-known modelling techniques, such as GARCH, Historical Simulation and Filtered Historical Simulation. Both conditional EVT and Filtered Historical Simulation procedures offer a major improvement over the conventional methods. Furthermore, GARCH(1, 1)-t model may provide equally good results which are comparable to two combined procedures. Finally, our results confirm the importance of filtering process for the success of standard approaches. (author)

Extreme Value Theory and Value at Risk. Application to oil market

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Marimoutou, Velayoudoum [GREQAM, Universite de la Mediterranee, Institut Francais de Pondichery (France); Raggad, Bechir; Trabelsi, Abdelwahed [BESTMOD, Institut Superieur de Gestion de Tunis (Tunisia)

2009-07-15

Recent increases in energy prices, especially oil prices, have become a principal concern for consumers, corporations, and governments. Most analysts believe that oil price fluctuations have considerable consequences on economic activity. Oil markets have become relatively free, resulting in a high degree of oil-price volatility and generating radical changes to world energy and oil industries. Consequently, oil markets are naturally vulnerable to significant high price shifts. An example of such a case is the oil embargo crisis of 1973. In this newly created climate, protection against market risk has become a necessity. Value at Risk (VaR) measures risk exposure at a given probability level and is very important for risk management. Appealing aspects of Extreme Value Theory (EVT) have made convincing arguments for its use in managing energy price risks. In this paper, we model VaR for long and short trading positions in oil market by applying both unconditional and conditional EVT models to forecast Value at Risk. These models are compared to the performances of other well-known modelling techniques, such as GARCH, Historical Simulation and Filtered Historical Simulation. Both conditional EVT and Filtered Historical Simulation procedures offer a major improvement over the conventional methods. Furthermore, GARCH(1, 1)-t model may provide equally good results which are comparable to two combined procedures. Finally, our results confirm the importance of filtering process for the success of standard approaches. (author)

Exploring sexual risk taking among American Indian adolescents through protection motivation theory.

Science.gov (United States)

Chambers, Rachel; Tingey, Lauren; Mullany, Britta; Parker, Sean; Lee, Angelita; Barlow, Allison

2016-09-01

This paper examines decision-making around sexual behavior among reservation-based American Indian youth. Focus group discussions were conducted with youth ages 13-19 years old. Through these discussions, we explored youth's knowledge, attitudes and behaviors related to sexual risk taking through the lens of the protection motivation theory to inform the adaptation of an evidence-based HIV prevention intervention. Findings suggest that condom use self-efficacy and HIV prevention knowledge is low, vulnerability to sexually transmitted infections is lacking and alcohol plays a significant role in sexual risk taking in this population. In addition, parental monitoring and peer influence may contribute to or protect against sexual risk taking. Results suggest that future HIV prevention interventions should be delivered to gender-specific peer groups, include a parental component, teach sexual health education and communication skills, integrate substance-use prevention, and work to remove stigma around obtaining and using condoms.

Time Factor in the Theory of Anthropogenic Risk Prediction in Complex Dynamic Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Ostreikovsky, V. A.; Shevchenko, Ye N.; Yurkov, N. K.; Kochegarov, I. I.; Grishko, A. K.

2018-01-01

The article overviews the anthropogenic risk models that take into consideration the development of different factors in time that influence the complex system. Three classes of mathematical models have been analyzed for the use in assessing the anthropogenic risk of complex dynamic systems. These models take into consideration time factor in determining the prospect of safety change of critical systems. The originality of the study is in the analysis of five time postulates in the theory of anthropogenic risk and the safety of highly important objects. It has to be stressed that the given postulates are still rarely used in practical assessment of equipment service life of critically important systems. That is why, the results of study presented in the article can be used in safety engineering and analysis of critically important complex technical systems.

Competing risk theory and radiation risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Groer, P.G.

1980-01-01

New statistical procedures are applied to estimate cumulative distribution functions (c.d.f.), force of mortality, and latent period for radiation-induced malignancies. It is demonstrated that correction for competing risks influences the shape of dose response curves, estimates of the latent period, and of the risk from ionizing radiations. The equivalence of the following concepts is demonstrated: force of mortality, hazard rate, and age or time specific incidence. This equivalence makes it possible to use procedures from reliability analysis and demography for radiation risk assessment. Two methods used by reliability analysts - hazard plotting and total time on test plots - are discussed in some detail and applied to characterize the hazard rate in radiation carcinogenesis. C.d.f.'s with increasing, decreasing, or constant hazard rate have different shapes and are shown to yield different dose-response curves for continuous irradiation. Absolute risk is shown to be a sound estimator only if the force of mortality is constant for the exposed and the control group. Dose-response relationships that use the absolute risk as a measure for the effect turn out to be special cases of dose-response relationships that measure the effect with cumulative incidence. (H.K.)

Nursing care in patients with cardiovascular risk based on the theory of Nola J. Pender

OpenAIRE

Cadena Estrada, Julio César; Instituto Nacional de Cardiología Ignacio Chávez; González Ortega, Yariela; Universidad de Panamá

2017-01-01

Introduction: chronic degenerative diseases such as coronary heart disease are caused by various risk factors, habits and styles of unhealthy life, so that prevention and health promotion based on theories or models of nursing, play an essential role in solving public health problems. Objective: To develop a proposal for implementation of nursing care to patients with cardiovascular risk supported by the Health Promotion Model (HPM) of Nola J Pender. Proposal: The care of people is proposed b...

A Hybrid Approach for Evaluating Faulty Behavior Risk of High-Risk Operations Using ANP and Evidence Theory

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xia-Zhong Zheng

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Hydropower project construction is a high-risk operation, where accidents occur frequently. Moreover, the factors leading to accidents are often human factors, so safety evaluation of these factors for the hydropower projects’ work system is very significant. The Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS framework is applied to build evaluation system. In the evaluation process, correlation analysis is used to form the intercriteria analysis matrix that helps the decision makers to build impact relation matrix. Factor weights are calculated by the Analytic Network Process (ANP. In the index value determination step, the evidence theory is used to eliminate the conflicts of three decision makers and the index values are then calculated. The faulty behavior risk (FBR assessment value is finally obtained. The proposed method is practical and its applicability is proved by an example.

Comfort vs risk: a grounded theory about female adolescent behaviour in the sun.

Science.gov (United States)

Norton, Elizabeth; Holloway, Immy; Galvin, Kathleen

2014-07-01

To generate a grounded theory about female adolescent behaviour in the sun. Nurses have key roles in health promotion and skin cancer prevention. Adolescents' resistance to sun safety messages and their vulnerability to sunburn are of concern internationally. Understanding why young women do as they do in the sun may enhance skin cancer prevention, but their behaviour has not been explained before in the UK. The study incorporated a qualitative grounded theory design using the approach of Glaser. Qualitative data were gleaned from group and one-to-one, semi-structured interviews with 20 female participants aged 14-17, research memos and literature. Sampling was purposive and theoretical. Data collection, analysis and theory generation occurred concurrently. Data were analysed using the constant comparative method. Data collection ended when a substantive theory had been generated. Data analysis revealed five categories of findings: fitting in, being myself, being physically comfortable, slipping up and being comfortable (the core category). The theory generated around the core explains how young women direct their sun-related activities towards meeting their physical and psychosocial comfort needs. A contribution of this research is the grounded theory explaining the behaviour of young women in the sun. Further, the theory challenges assumptions that female adolescents necessarily take risks; it explains their sun-related activities in terms of comfort. The theory extends findings from other researchers' descriptive qualitative studies and also appears to apply to young people in countries other than the UK. Understanding the sun-related activity of young women in terms of physical and psychosocial comfort may help nurses to develop new approaches to skin cancer prevention. These could complement existing messages and humanise health promotion. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Prospect theory or construal level theory? Diminishing sensitivity vs. psychological distance in risky decisions.

Science.gov (United States)

Trautmann, Stefan T; van de Kuilen, Gijs

2012-01-01

Attitudes toward risks are central to organizational decisions. These attitudes are commonly modeled by prospect theory. Construal level theory has been proposed as an alternative theory of risky choice, accounting for psychological distance deriving from temporal, spatial and social aspects of risk that are typical of agency situations. Unnoticed in the literature, the two theories make contradicting predictions. The current study investigates which theory provides a better description of risky decisions in the presence of temporal, spatial, and social factors. We find that the psychophysical effects modeled by prospect theory dominate the psychological distance effects of construal level theory. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Mathematical finance theory review and exercises from binomial model to risk measures

CERN Document Server

Gianin, Emanuela Rosazza

2013-01-01

The book collects over 120 exercises on different subjects of Mathematical Finance, including Option Pricing, Risk Theory, and Interest Rate Models. Many of the exercises are solved, while others are only proposed. Every chapter contains an introductory section illustrating the main theoretical results necessary to solve the exercises. The book is intended as an exercise textbook to accompany graduate courses in mathematical finance offered at many universities as part of degree programs in Applied and Industrial Mathematics, Mathematical Engineering, and Quantitative Finance.

Application of Grounded Theory in Determining Required Elements for IPv6 Risk Assessment Equation

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Rosli Athirah

2018-01-01

Full Text Available The deployment of Internet Protocol version 6 (IPv6 has raised security concerns among the network administrators. Thus, in strengthening the network security, administrator requires an appropriate method to assess the possible risks that occur in their networks. Aware of the needs to calculate risk in IPv6 network, it is essential to an organization to have an equation that is flexible and consider the requirements of the network. However, the existing risk assessment equations do not consider the requirement of the network. Therefore, this paper presents the adaptation of grounded theory to search for elements that are needed to develop IPv6 risk assessment (IRA6 equation. The attack scenarios’ experiments; UDP Flooding, TCP Flooding and Multicast attacks were carried out in different network environment to show how the IPv6 risk assessment equation being used. The result shows that the IRA6 equation is more flexible to be used regardless the network sizes and easier to calculate the risk value compared to the existing risk assessment equations. Hence, network administrators can have a proper decision making and strategic planning for a robust network security.

Does perceived risk influence the effects of message framing? Revisiting the link between prospect theory and message framing.

Science.gov (United States)

Van 't Riet, Jonathan; Cox, Anthony D; Cox, Dena; Zimet, Gregory D; De Bruijn, Gert-Jan; Van den Putte, Bas; De Vries, Hein; Werrij, Marieke Q; Ruiter, Robert A C

2016-12-01

Health-promoting messages can be framed in terms of the beneficial consequences of healthy behaviour (gain-framed messages) or the detrimental consequences of unhealthy behaviour (loss-framed messages). An influential notion holds that the perceived risk associated with the recommended behaviour determines the relative persuasiveness of gain- and loss-framed messages. This 'risk-framing hypothesis', which was derived from prospect theory, has been central to health message-framing research for the better part of two decades and has enduring appeal to researchers and practitioners. It has found its way into several health communication handbooks and is communicated to the general public. The present article examines the validity of the risk-framing hypothesis anew by providing a review of the health message-framing literature. In spite of its ongoing appeal, we conclude that the hypothesis has severe theoretical flaws. In addition, we find that the empirical evidence in favour of the hypothesis is weak and inconsistent. It seems that, in applying prospect theory's tenets to a health-promotion context, some of the theory's key aspects have been lost in translation. At the close of the article, we offer a research agenda for the future, arguing that, above all, new methodology is needed to bring the message-framing literature further.

The total theory about risk management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Furuya, Shunsuke

2003-01-01

A general working procedure of risk management, some example of other countries, topics and problems in the future are described. A definition of risk, risk assessment, risk management process, setting of aim and definite policy are explained. As a fundamental way of thinking, risk is controlled by ALARP (As Low As Reasonably Practicable). The upper and lower limit of risk level is called as Quantitative Safety Goal and Target Level of Safety, respectively. These limits in the atomic power and airplane are decided. Evaluation of risk, countermeasure and practice are explained. For example, a permissible range of risk and practical use in England, U.S.A, Holland and Japan are stated. Recently, accountability risk, missing demand risk and control risk are important. (S.Y.)

Risky Business: An Integrated Institutional Theory for Understanding High-Risk Decision Making in Higher Education

Science.gov (United States)

Turner, Lauren A.; Angulo, A. J.

2018-01-01

Lauren A. Turner and A. J. Angulo explore how institutional theory can be applied to explain variance in higher education organizational strategies. Given strong regulatory, normative, and cultural-cognitive pressures to conform, they ask, why do some colleges engage in high-risk decision making? To answer this, they bring together classic and…

MODELLING AND SIMULATING RISKS IN THE TRAINING OF THE HUMAN RESOURCES BY APPLYING THE CHAOS THEORY

OpenAIRE

Eugen ROTARESCU

2012-01-01

The article approaches the modelling and simulation of risks in the training of the human resources, as well as the forecast of the degree of human resources training impacted by risks by applying the mathematical tools offered by the Chaos Theory and mathematical statistics. We will highlight that the level of knowledge, skills and abilities of the human resources from an organization are autocorrelated in time and they depend on the level of a previous moment of the training, as well as on ...

Game theory and risk-based leveed river system planning with noncooperation

Science.gov (United States)

Hui, Rui; Lund, Jay R.; Madani, Kaveh

2016-01-01

Optimal risk-based levee designs are usually developed for economic efficiency. However, in river systems with multiple levees, the planning and maintenance of different levees are controlled by different agencies or groups. For example, along many rivers, levees on opposite riverbanks constitute a simple leveed river system with each levee designed and controlled separately. Collaborative planning of the two levees can be economically optimal for the whole system. Independent and self-interested landholders on opposite riversides often are willing to separately determine their individual optimal levee plans, resulting in a less efficient leveed river system from an overall society-wide perspective (the tragedy of commons). We apply game theory to simple leveed river system planning where landholders on each riverside independently determine their optimal risk-based levee plans. Outcomes from noncooperative games are analyzed and compared with the overall economically optimal outcome, which minimizes net flood cost system-wide. The system-wide economically optimal solution generally transfers residual flood risk to the lower-valued side of the river, but is often impractical without compensating for flood risk transfer to improve outcomes for all individuals involved. Such compensation can be determined and implemented with landholders' agreements on collaboration to develop an economically optimal plan. By examining iterative multiple-shot noncooperative games with reversible and irreversible decisions, the costs of myopia for the future in making levee planning decisions show the significance of considering the externalities and evolution path of dynamic water resource problems to improve decision-making.

Prospect Theory and the Risks Involved in Decision-Making: Content Analysis in ProQuest Articles

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sady Darcy da Silva-Junior

2016-04-01

Full Text Available In this study, the objective is to perform content analysis on articles of a reliable database, dealing with the prospect theory and the risks involved in the decision making process, evaluating some criteria for the theoretical and methodological approaches that allow a joint analysis and comparative. Therefore, a search in ProQuest database was performed which resulted in 15 articles that were submitted to content analysis process, based on the evaluation of nine factors identified by researchers. Among the results highlight the critical attitude to the prospect theory, in contrast to the assertion of his representative capacity of real situations and application in various situations.

Physiological Plausibility and Boundary Conditions of Theories of Risk Sensitivity

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Marchiori, Davide; Elqayam, Shira

2012-01-01

dilatation, which in turn positively correlates with a risk aversion behavior. They hypothesize that participants’ attention is increased in decision problems involving losses, which trigger an innate prudent behavior in situations entailing danger and/or hazard. Interestingly, Y&T find that the nature...... of attention is not selective, i.e., when losses are present, participants are shown to devote more attention to the task as a whole rather than to the single negative outcomes, in contrast to Prospect Theory's loss aversion....... and physiological underpinnings of one of the central topics in judgment and decision-making (JDM) research – choice behavior in decisions from experience. Y&T successfully contributes to this goal by demonstrating a novel effect that losses increase experimental participants’ arousal as measured by pupil...

Comparison of China's oil import risk. Results based on portfolio theory and a diversification index approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wu, Gang; Liu, Lan-Cui; Wei, Yi-Ming

2009-01-01

In recent years, the international oil price has fluctuated violently, bringing about huge risk for the international oil trade. In fact, the risk of crude oil and petroleum product imports is different because of the different import origins and prices. Which import risk is lower for China? From the perspective of oil supply security, how should China portfolio crude oil and petroleum product imports to minimize its oil import risk? Using portfolio theory and a diversification index approach, this paper compares and analyzes the supply, price and transport risks of crude oil and petroleum product imports. Our results show that the following: (1) Specific risk (diversification risk) and marine transport risk of China's petroleum product imports are lower than that of crude oil imports. (2) The average rate of return of China's petroleum product imports is higher than that of crude oil imports. Moreover, the average import price variance of petroleum product imports is lower than that of crude oil imports. Thus, the systematic risk (price risk) of petroleum products is lower too. Therefore, from the perspective of oil supply security, China should increase petroleum product imports to decrease its oil import risk. (author)

An Evaluation of Financial Institutions: Impact on Consumption and Investment Using Panel Data and the Theory of Risk-Bearing.

Science.gov (United States)

Alem, Mauro; Townsend, Robert M

2014-11-01

The theory of the optimal allocation of risk and the Townsend Thai panel data on financial transactions are used to assess the impact of the major formal and informal financial institutions of an emerging market economy. We link financial institution assessment to the actual impact on clients, rather than ratios and non-performing loans. We derive both consumption and investment equations from a common core theory with both risk and productive activities. The empirical specification follows closely from this theory and allows both OLS and IV estimation. We thus quantify the consumption and investment smoothing impact of financial institutions on households including those running farms and small businesses. A government development bank (BAAC) is shown to be particularly helpful in smoothing consumption and investment, in no small part through credit, consistent with its own operating system, which embeds an implicit insurance operation. Commercial banks are smoothing investment, largely through formal savings accounts. Other institutions seem ineffective by these metrics.

An Evaluation of Financial Institutions: Impact on Consumption and Investment Using Panel Data and the Theory of Risk-Bearing*

Science.gov (United States)

Alem, Mauro; Townsend, Robert M.

2013-01-01

The theory of the optimal allocation of risk and the Townsend Thai panel data on financial transactions are used to assess the impact of the major formal and informal financial institutions of an emerging market economy. We link financial institution assessment to the actual impact on clients, rather than ratios and non-performing loans. We derive both consumption and investment equations from a common core theory with both risk and productive activities. The empirical specification follows closely from this theory and allows both OLS and IV estimation. We thus quantify the consumption and investment smoothing impact of financial institutions on households including those running farms and small businesses. A government development bank (BAAC) is shown to be particularly helpful in smoothing consumption and investment, in no small part through credit, consistent with its own operating system, which embeds an implicit insurance operation. Commercial banks are smoothing investment, largely through formal savings accounts. Other institutions seem ineffective by these metrics. PMID:25400319

Analyzing Test-Taking Behavior: Decision Theory Meets Psychometric Theory.

Science.gov (United States)

Budescu, David V; Bo, Yuanchao

2015-12-01

We investigate the implications of penalizing incorrect answers to multiple-choice tests, from the perspective of both test-takers and test-makers. To do so, we use a model that combines a well-known item response theory model with prospect theory (Kahneman and Tversky, Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk, Econometrica 47:263-91, 1979). Our results reveal that when test-takers are fully informed of the scoring rule, the use of any penalty has detrimental effects for both test-takers (they are always penalized in excess, particularly those who are risk averse and loss averse) and test-makers (the bias of the estimated scores, as well as the variance and skewness of their distribution, increase as a function of the severity of the penalty).

Risk perception and communication in vaccination decisions: a fuzzy-trace theory approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Reyna, Valerie F

2012-05-28

The tenets of fuzzy-trace theory, along with prior research on risk perception and risk communication, are used to develop a process model of vaccination decisions in the era of Web 2.0. The theory characterizes these decisions in terms of background knowledge, dual mental representations (verbatim and gist), retrieval of values, and application of values to representations in context. Lack of knowledge interferes with the ability to extract the essential meaning, or gist, of vaccination messages. Prevention decisions have, by definition, a status quo option of "feeling okay." Psychological evidence from other prevention decisions, such as cancer screening, indicates that many people initially mentally represent their decision options in terms of simple, categorical gist: a choice between (a) a feeling-okay option (e.g., the unvaccinated status quo) versus (b) taking up preventive behavior that can have two potential categorical outcomes: feeling okay or not feeling okay. Hence, applying the same theoretical rules as used to explain framing effects and the Allais paradox, the decision to get a flu shot, for example, boils down to feeling okay (not sick) versus feeling okay (not sick) or not feeling okay (sick, side effects, or death). Because feeling okay is superior to not feeling okay (a retrieved value), this impoverished gist supports choosing not to have the flu vaccine. Anti-vaccination sources provide more coherent accounts of the gist of vaccination than official sources, filling a need to understand rare adverse outcomes. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Leptokurtic portfolio theory

Science.gov (United States)

Kitt, R.; Kalda, J.

2006-03-01

The question of optimal portfolio is addressed. The conventional Markowitz portfolio optimisation is discussed and the shortcomings due to non-Gaussian security returns are outlined. A method is proposed to minimise the likelihood of extreme non-Gaussian drawdowns of the portfolio value. The theory is called Leptokurtic, because it minimises the effects from “fat tails” of returns. The leptokurtic portfolio theory provides an optimal portfolio for investors, who define their risk-aversion as unwillingness to experience sharp drawdowns in asset prices. Two types of risks in asset returns are defined: a fluctuation risk, that has Gaussian distribution, and a drawdown risk, that deals with distribution tails. These risks are quantitatively measured by defining the “noise kernel” — an ellipsoidal cloud of points in the space of asset returns. The size of the ellipse is controlled with the threshold parameter: the larger the threshold parameter, the larger return are accepted for investors as normal fluctuations. The return vectors falling into the kernel are used for calculation of fluctuation risk. Analogously, the data points falling outside the kernel are used for the calculation of drawdown risks. As a result the portfolio optimisation problem becomes three-dimensional: in addition to the return, there are two types of risks involved. Optimal portfolio for drawdown-averse investors is the portfolio minimising variance outside the noise kernel. The theory has been tested with MSCI North America, Europe and Pacific total return stock indices.

An introduction to decision theory

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Peterson, M.B.

2009-01-01

This up-to-date introduction to decision theory offers comprehensive and accessible discussions of decision making under ignorance and risk, the foundations of utility theory, the debate over subjective and objective probability, Bayesianism, causal decision theory, game theory and social choice

Combination of qualitative and quantitative sources of knowledge for risk assessment in the framework of possibility theory

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Oussalah, M.; Newby, M.J.

2004-01-01

This paper focuses on a representation of system reliability in the framework of possibility theory. Particularly, given a (probabilistic) quantitative knowledge pertaining to the time to failure of a system (risk function) and some qualitative knowledge about the degree of pessimism and optimism of

Random matrix theory filters in portfolio optimisation: A stability and risk assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Daly, J.; Crane, M.; Ruskin, H. J.

2008-07-01

Random matrix theory (RMT) filters, applied to covariance matrices of financial returns, have recently been shown to offer improvements to the optimisation of stock portfolios. This paper studies the effect of three RMT filters on the realised portfolio risk, and on the stability of the filtered covariance matrix, using bootstrap analysis and out-of-sample testing. We propose an extension to an existing RMT filter, (based on Krzanowski stability), which is observed to reduce risk and increase stability, when compared to other RMT filters tested. We also study a scheme for filtering the covariance matrix directly, as opposed to the standard method of filtering correlation, where the latter is found to lower the realised risk, on average, by up to 6.7%. We consider both equally and exponentially weighted covariance matrices in our analysis, and observe that the overall best method out-of-sample was that of the exponentially weighted covariance, with our Krzanowski stability-based filter applied to the correlation matrix. We also find that the optimal out-of-sample decay factors, for both filtered and unfiltered forecasts, were higher than those suggested by Riskmetrics [J.P. Morgan, Reuters, Riskmetrics technical document, Technical Report, 1996. http://www.riskmetrics.com/techdoc.html], with those for the latter approaching a value of α=1. In conclusion, RMT filtering reduced the realised risk, on average, and in the majority of cases when tested out-of-sample, but increased the realised risk on a marked number of individual days-in some cases more than doubling it.

NATO Advanced Study Institute on Insurance and Risk Theory

CERN Document Server

Vylder, F; Haezendonck, J

1986-01-01

Canadian financial institutions have been in rapid change in the past five years. In response to these changes, the Department of Finance issued a discussion paper: The Regulation of Canadian Financial Institutions, in April 1985, and the government intends to introduce legislation in the fall. This paper studi.es the combinantion of financial institutions from the viewpoint of ruin probability. In risk theory developed to describe insurance companies [1,2,3,4,5J, the ruin probability of a company with initial reserve (capital) u is 6 1 -:;-7;;f3 u 1jJ(u) = H6 e H6 (1) Here,we assume that claims arrive as a Poisson process, and the claim amount is distributed as exponential distribution with expectation liS. 6 is the loading, i.e., premium charged is (1+6) times expected claims. Financial institutions are treated as "insurance companies": the difference between interest charged and interest paid is regarded as premiums, loan defaults are treated as claims.

A discussion of the limitations of the psychometric and cultural theory approaches to risk perception

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sjoeberg, L.

1996-01-01

Risk perception has traditionally been conceived as a cognitive phenomenon, basically a question of information processing. The very term perception suggests that information processing is involved and of crucial importance. Kahneman and Tversky suggested that the use of 'heuristics' in the intuitive estimation of probabilities accounts for biased probability perception, hence claiming to explain risk perception as well. The psychometric approach of Slovic et al, a further step in in the cognitive tradition, conceives of perceived risk as a function of general properties of a hazard. However, the psychometric approach is shown here to explain only about 20% of the variance of perceived risk, even less of risk acceptability. Its claim to explanatory power is based on a statistical illusion: mean values were investigated and accounted for, across hazards. A currently popular alternative to the psychometric tradition, Cultural Theory, is even less successful and explains only about 5% of the variance of perceived risk. The claims of this approach were also based on a statistical illusion: 'significant' results were reported and interpreted as being of substantial importance. The present paper presents a new approach: attitude to the risk generating technology, general sensitivity to risks and specific risk explained well over 60% of the variance of perceived risk of nuclear waste, in a study of extensive data from a representative sample of the Swedish population. The attitude component functioning as an explanatory factor of perceived risk, rather than as a consequence of perceived risk, suggests strongly that perceived risk is something other than cognition. Implications for risk communication are discussed. (author)

Theory-Based Analysis of Interest in an HIV Vaccine for Reasons Indicative of Risk Compensation Among African American Women.

Science.gov (United States)

Painter, Julia E; Temple, Brandie S; Woods, Laura A; Cwiak, Carrie; Haddad, Lisa B; Mulligan, Mark J; DiClemente, Ralph J

2018-06-01

Licensure of an HIV vaccine could reduce or eliminate HIV among vulnerable populations. However, vaccine effectiveness could be undermined by risk compensation (RC), defined by an increase in risky behavior due to a belief that the vaccine will confer protection. Interest in an HIV vaccine for reasons indicative of RC may serve as an indicator of actual RC in a postlicensure era. This study assessed factors associated with interest in an HIV vaccine for reasons indicative of RC among African American women aged 18 to 55 years, recruited from a hospital-based family planning clinic in Atlanta, Georgia ( N = 321). Data were collected using audio-computer-assisted surveys. Survey items were guided by risk homeostasis theory and social cognitive theory. Multivariable logistic regression was used to assess determinants of interest in an HIV vaccine for reasons indicative of RC. Thirty-eight percent of the sample expressed interest in an HIV vaccine for at least one reason indicative of RC. In the final model, interest in an HIV vaccine for reasons indicative of RC was positively associated with higher impulsivity, perceived benefits of sexual risk behaviors, and perceived benefits of HIV vaccination; it was negatively associated with having at least some college education, positive future orientation, and self-efficacy for sex refusal. Results suggest that demographic, personality, and theory-based psychosocial factors are salient to wanting an HIV vaccine for reasons indicative of RC, and underscore the need for risk-reduction counseling alongside vaccination during the eventual rollout of an HIV vaccine.

Risk and Rationality in Adolescent Decision Making: Implications for Theory, Practice, and Public Policy.

Science.gov (United States)

Reyna, Valerie F; Farley, Frank

2006-09-01

conditions), adolescents are capable of rational decision making to achieve their goals. In practice, much depends on the particular situation in which a decision is made. In the heat of passion, in the presence of peers, on the spur of the moment, in unfamiliar situations, when trading off risks and benefits favors bad long-term outcomes, and when behavioral inhibition is required for good outcomes, adolescents are likely to reason more poorly than adults do. Brain maturation in adolescence is incomplete. Impulsivity, sensation seeking, thrill seeking, depression, and other individual differences also contribute to risk taking that resists standard risk-reduction interventions, although some conditions such as depression can be effectively treated with other approaches. Major explanatory models of risky decision making can be roughly divided into (a) those, including health-belief models and the theory of planned behavior, that adhere to a "rational" behavioral decision-making framework that stresses deliberate, quantitative trading off of risks and benefits; and (b) those that emphasize nondeliberative reaction to the perceived gists or prototypes in the immediate decision environment. (A gist is a fuzzy mental representation of the general meaning of information or experience; a prototype is a mental representation of a standard or typical example of a category.) Although perceived risks and especially benefits predict behavioral intentions and risk-taking behavior, behavioral willingness is an even better predictor of susceptibility to risk taking-and has unique explanatory power-because adolescents are willing to do riskier things than they either intend or expect to do. Dual-process models, such as the prototype/willingness model and fuzzy-trace theory, identify two divergent paths to risk taking: a reasoned and a reactive route. Such models explain apparent contradictions in the literature, including different causes of risk taking for different individuals

Theory-based approaches to understanding public emergency preparedness: implications for effective health and risk communication.

Science.gov (United States)

Paek, Hye-Jin; Hilyard, Karen; Freimuth, Vicki; Barge, J Kevin; Mindlin, Michele

2010-06-01

Recent natural and human-caused disasters have awakened public health officials to the importance of emergency preparedness. Guided by health behavior and media effects theories, the analysis of a statewide survey in Georgia reveals that self-efficacy, subjective norm, and emergency news exposure are positively associated with the respondents' possession of emergency items and their stages of emergency preparedness. Practical implications suggest less focus on demographics as the sole predictor of emergency preparedness and more comprehensive measures of preparedness, including both a person's cognitive stage of preparedness and checklists of emergency items on hand. We highlight the utility of theory-based approaches for understanding and predicting public emergency preparedness as a way to enable more effective health and risk communication.

The Theory-based Influence of Map Features on Risk Beliefs: Self-reports of What is Seen and Understood for Maps Depicting an Environmental Health Hazard

OpenAIRE

Severtson, Dolores J.; Vatovec, Christine

2012-01-01

Theory-based research is needed to understand how maps of environmental health risk information influence risk beliefs and protective behavior. Using theoretical concepts from multiple fields of study including visual cognition, semiotics, health behavior, and learning and memory supports a comprehensive assessment of this influence. We report results from thirteen cognitive interviews that provide theory-based insights into how visual features influenced what participants saw ...

Assessing the optimism-pessimism debate: Nuclear proliferation, nuclear risks, and theories of state action

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Busch, Nathan Edward

2001-01-01

This dissertation focuses on the current debate in international relations literature over the risks associated with the proliferation of nuclear weapons. On this subject, IR scholars are divided into roughly two schools: proliferation 'optimists,' who argue that proliferation can be beneficial and that its associated hazards are at least surmountable, and proliferation 'pessimists,' who believe the opposite. This debate centers upon a theoretical disagreement about how best to explain and predict the behavior of states. Optimists generally ground their arguments on rational deterrence theory and maintain that nuclear weapons can actually increase stability among states, while pessimists often ground their arguments on 'organization theory,' which contends that organizational, bureaucratic, and other factors prevent states from acting rationally. A major difficulty with the proliferation debate, however, is that both sides tend to advance their respective theoretical positions without adequately supporting them with solid empirical evidence. This dissertation detailed analyses of the nuclear programs in the United States, Russia, China, India, and Pakistan to determine whether countries with nuclear weapons have adequate controls over their nuclear arsenals and tissue material stockpiles (such as highly enriched uranium and plutonium). These case studies identify the strengths and weaknesses of different systems of nuclear controls and help predict what types of controls proliferating states are likely to employ. On the basis of the evidence gathered from these cases, this dissertation concludes that a further spread of nuclear weapons would tend to have seriously negative effects on international stability by increasing risks of accidental, unauthorized, or inadvertent use of nuclear weapons and risks of thefts of fissile materials for use in nuclear or radiological devices by aspiring nuclear states or terrorist groups. (author)

Prospect theory based estimation of drivers' risk attitudes in route choice behaviors.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Lizhen; Zhong, Shiquan; Ma, Shoufeng; Jia, Ning

2014-12-01

This paper applied prospect theory (PT) to describe drivers' route choice behavior under Variable Message Sign (VMS), which presented visual traffic information to assist them to make route choice decisions. A quite rich empirical data from questionnaire and field spot was used to estimate parameters of PT. In order to make the parameters more realistic with drivers' attitudes, they were classified into different types by significant factors influencing their behaviors. Based on the travel time distribution of alternative routes and route choice results from questionnaire, the parameterized value function of each category was figured out, which represented drivers' risk attitudes and choice characteristics. The empirical verification showed that the estimates were acceptable and effective. The result showed drivers' risk attitudes and route choice characteristics could be captured by PT under real-time information shown on VMS. For practical application, once drivers' route choice characteristics and parameters were identified, their route choice behavior under different road conditions could be predicted accurately, which was the basis of traffic guidance measures formulation and implementation for targeted traffic management. Moreover, the heterogeneous risk attitudes among drivers should be considered when releasing traffic information and regulating traffic flow. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Work and Risk: Perceptions of Nuclear-Power Personnel. a Study in Grounded Theory.

Science.gov (United States)

Fields, Claire Dewitt

1992-01-01

The utility industry has devoted time and money to assure personnel within nuclear power plants are informed about occupational risks. Radiation-protection training programs are designed to present information to employees about occupational radiation and protective procedures. Work -related concerns are known to create stress, affect the morale of the workforce, influence collective bargaining, and increase compensation claims. This study was designed to determine perceptions of risk among employees of nuclear power plants and identify variables that influence these perceptions. Four power plants were included in the study, one in Canada and three in the United States. Data were generated through participant observations and interviews of 350 participants during a period of 3 weeks at each plant. Data were gathered and analyzed following procedures advanced by Grounded Theory, a naturalistic methodology used in this study. Training content, information, and communication materials were additional sources of data. Findings indicated employees believed health and safety risks existed within the work environment. Perceptions of risk were influenced by training quality, the work environment, nuclear myths and images of the general public, and fears of family members. Among the three groups of workers, administration personnel, security personnel, and radiation workers, the latter identified a larger number of risks. Workers perceived radiation risks, shift work, and steam pipe ruptures as high-level concerns. Experiencing stress, making mistakes, and fear of sabotage were concerns shared among all employee groups at various levels of concern. Strategies developed by employees were used to control risk. Strategies included teamwork, humor, monitoring, avoidance, reframing, and activism. When risks were perceived as uncontrollable, the employee left the plant. A coping strategy of transferring concerns about radiological risks to nonradiological risks were uncovered in

THE THEORY OF EFFICIENT MARKETS AND A MODEL OF RATIONAL INVESTOR – FROM CONDITIONS OF RISK TO TERMS OF CONFLICT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Krzysztof Dobrowolski

2014-03-01

Full Text Available The theoretical assumption about the informative effectiveness of financial markets is very important, although the discussion about its compatibility with the reality still re-mains open. The article summarises the key elements of the theory of efficient markets, paying particular attention to the adopted in this theory assumption about a rational inves-tor, which also appears in other models and theories related to the financial markets (such as capital asset pricing model CAPM or Markowitz Portfolio Theory. The views on the way and criteria for decision-making by a rational investor have changed over the centu-ries. Today, the dominant theory in this regard is the theory of expected utility. However, it characterizes the decision-making process under risk conditions, which are not the most common economic environment, particularly in an economy subjected to the process of globalisation. Thus, the problem of using the models of decision making under conditions of uncertainty, ignorance and terms of conflict in the efficient market theory and the theo-ry of expected utility is under consideration in the final part of the article.

Mean-deviation analysis in the theory of choice.

Science.gov (United States)

Grechuk, Bogdan; Molyboha, Anton; Zabarankin, Michael

2012-08-01

Mean-deviation analysis, along with the existing theories of coherent risk measures and dual utility, is examined in the context of the theory of choice under uncertainty, which studies rational preference relations for random outcomes based on different sets of axioms such as transitivity, monotonicity, continuity, etc. An axiomatic foundation of the theory of coherent risk measures is obtained as a relaxation of the axioms of the dual utility theory, and a further relaxation of the axioms are shown to lead to the mean-deviation analysis. Paradoxes arising from the sets of axioms corresponding to these theories and their possible resolutions are discussed, and application of the mean-deviation analysis to optimal risk sharing and portfolio selection in the context of rational choice is considered. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Intentions to Participate in Counselling among Front-Line, At-Risk Irish Government Employees: An Application of the Theory of Planned Behaviour

Science.gov (United States)

Hyland, Philip E.; McLaughlin, Christopher G.; Boduszek, Daniel; Prentice, Garry R.

2012-01-01

The study set out to examine intentions to engage in counselling among at-risk Irish government employees and the differential utility of two alternative theory of planned behaviour (TPB) models of behaviour to explain intentions to participate in counselling. Individuals (N = 259) employed in a front-line, at-risk occupation for the Irish…

Behavioral risk-reduction strategies to prevent HIV infection among homosexual men: a grounded theory approach.

Science.gov (United States)

de Wit, J B; Teunis, N; van Griensven, G J; Sandfort, T G

1994-12-01

To be able to design effective health education interventions for homosexual men, it is necessary to understand determinants of safe and unsafe sex from the perspective of those involved. In this qualitative study, therefore, an open approach was taken to allow for this perspective. Interviews were conducted with 50 randomly selected HIV-antibody negative participants in the Amsterdam Cohort Study. Detailed questions were asked about sexual interactions and behaviors with steady and nonsteady partners. Whether or not homosexual men consciously protected themselves from HIV infection and which strategy they adopted was found to depend on three major factors: 1) motivation and intention, 2) significance of anal sex, and 3) risk perception within specific relationships. From a theoretical perspective results indicate that, next to the centrality of individual motivation as postulated in both the Theory of Reasoned Action and the Theory of Planned Behavior, symbolic meaning inherent in sexual acts, as well as type of relationship are important determinants of protective sexual behaviors that have to be taken into account to understand adequately why homosexual men engage in safe or unsafe sex. Some strategies employed by homosexual men carry uncertainties that continue to put them at increased risk for HIV infection. Health education interventions can be designed to address these issues.

Research and development modelling in the frame of search - prognosis - risk theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Valeca, Serban Constantin

2002-01-01

/efficiency descriptors is discussed through the re-engineering concept viewed as a presently optimal means to ensure sustainable development of power systems with nuclear injection. The monograph is structured in the following nine chapters: 1. Conceptual layout; 1.1 Trends in the re-engineering of power systems with nuclear injection; 1.2 The work's goal highlighting the new aspects; 2. Cybernetic principles and models in operational research applied to classic and nonclassical power systems; 2.1 Principles and models of operational research; 2.2 The cybernetics of structure and power fluxes; 3. Management of sustainable development with power systems with nuclear injection; 3.1. Descriptors and objectives of sustainable development; 3.2 Sustainable development of power systems in the frame of operational research; 4. Managing the nuclear risk; 4.1 Descriptors and models of nuclear risks; 4.2 Monitoring systems of risk transforming it in resource savings; 5. Management of catastrophes and power chaos; 5.1 Premises of catastrophe theory and power chaos; 5. 2 Critical issues in dynamical systems; 6. Management of electric energy quality; 6.1 Quality indicators; 6.2 The risk of live cells exposed to electromagnetic field; 7. Informatics of nuclear electric power systems; 7.1 Premises and trends in the field of nuclear informatics; 7.2 Informatics engineering of nuclear systems modelled in game theory; 8. Economic efficiency of power systems with nuclear injection; 8.1 Holistic indicator models within the economic re-engineering concept; 8.2 Logical schemes for computing the indicators and the program product; 9. Conclusions and operational proposals; 9.1 A synthesis of the exposed ideas; 9.2 Novel aspects of the research undertaken

Value-at-risk estimation with wavelet-based extreme value theory: Evidence from emerging markets

Science.gov (United States)

Cifter, Atilla

2011-06-01

This paper introduces wavelet-based extreme value theory (EVT) for univariate value-at-risk estimation. Wavelets and EVT are combined for volatility forecasting to estimate a hybrid model. In the first stage, wavelets are used as a threshold in generalized Pareto distribution, and in the second stage, EVT is applied with a wavelet-based threshold. This new model is applied to two major emerging stock markets: the Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) and the Budapest Stock Exchange (BUX). The relative performance of wavelet-based EVT is benchmarked against the Riskmetrics-EWMA, ARMA-GARCH, generalized Pareto distribution, and conditional generalized Pareto distribution models. The empirical results show that the wavelet-based extreme value theory increases predictive performance of financial forecasting according to number of violations and tail-loss tests. The superior forecasting performance of the wavelet-based EVT model is also consistent with Basel II requirements, and this new model can be used by financial institutions as well.

Method for assessing coal-floor water-inrush risk based on the variable-weight model and unascertained measure theory

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Qiang; Zhao, Dekang; Wang, Yang; Shen, Jianjun; Mu, Wenping; Liu, Honglei

2017-11-01

Water inrush from coal-seam floors greatly threatens mining safety in North China and is a complex process controlled by multiple factors. This study presents a mathematical assessment system for coal-floor water-inrush risk based on the variable-weight model (VWM) and unascertained measure theory (UMT). In contrast to the traditional constant-weight model (CWM), which assigns a fixed weight to each factor, the VWM varies with the factor-state value. The UMT employs the confidence principle, which is more effective in ordered partition problems than the maximum membership principle adopted in the former mathematical theory. The method is applied to the Datang Tashan Coal Mine in North China. First, eight main controlling factors are selected to construct the comprehensive evaluation index system. Subsequently, an incentive-penalty variable-weight model is built to calculate the variable weights of each factor. Then, the VWM-UMT model is established using the quantitative risk-grade divide of each factor according to the UMT. On this basis, the risk of coal-floor water inrush in Tashan Mine No. 8 is divided into five grades. For comparison, the CWM is also adopted for the risk assessment, and a differences distribution map is obtained between the two methods. Finally, the verification of water-inrush points indicates that the VWM-UMT model is powerful and more feasible and reasonable. The model has great potential and practical significance in future engineering applications.

Essentials of Risk Theory

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Roeser, S.; Hillerbrand, R.; Sandin, P.; Peterson, M.B.

2012-01-01

Risk has become one of the main topics in fields as diverse as engineering, medicine and economics, and it is also studied by social scientists, psychologists and legal scholars. This Springer Essentials version offers an overview of the in-depth handbook and highlights some of the main points

Prospect theory in the valuation of health.

Science.gov (United States)

Moffett, Maurice L; Suarez-Almazor, Maria E

2005-08-01

Prospect theory is the prominent nonexpected utility theory in the estimation of health state preference scores for quality-adjusted life year calculation. Until recently, the theory was not considered to be developed to the point of implementation in economic analysis. This review focuses on the research and evidence that tests the implementation of prospect theory into health state valuation. The typical application of expected utility theory assumes that a decision maker has stable preferences under conditions of risk and uncertainty. Under prospect theory, preferences are dependent on whether the decision maker regards the outcome of a choice as a gain or loss, relative to a reference point. The conceptual preference for standard gamble utilities in the valuation of health states has led to the development of elicitation techniques. Empirical evidence using these techniques indicates that when individual preferences are elicited, a prospect theory consistent framework appears to be necessary for adequate representation of individual health utilities. The relevance of prospect theory to policy making and resource allocation remains to be established. Societal preferences may not need the same attitudes towards risks as individual preferences, and may remain largely risk neutral.

Decision making for animal health and welfare: integrating risk-benefit analysis with prospect theory.

Science.gov (United States)

Hansson, Helena; Lagerkvist, Carl Johan

2014-06-01

This study integrated risk-benefit analysis with prospect theory with the overall objective of identifying the type of management behavior represented by farmers' choices of mastitis control options (MCOs). Two exploratory factor analyses, based on 163 and 175 Swedish farmers, respectively, highlighted attitudes to MCOs related to: (1) grouping cows and applying milking order to prevent spread of existing infection and (2) working in a precautionary way to prevent mastitis occurring. This was interpreted as being based on (1) reactive management behavior on detection of udder-health problems in individual cows and (2) proactive management behavior to prevent mastitis developing. Farmers' assessments of these MCOs were found to be based on asymmetrical evaluations of risks and benefits, suggesting that farmers' management behavior depends on their individual reference point. In particular, attitudes to MCOs related to grouping cows and applying milking order to prevent the spread of mastitis once infected cows were detected were stronger in the risk domain than in the benefit domain, in accordance with loss aversion. In contrast, attitudes to MCOs related to working in a precautionary way to prevent cows from becoming infected in the first place were stronger in the benefit domain than in the risk domain, in accordance with reverse loss aversion. These findings are of practical importance for farmers and agribusiness and in public health protection work to reduce the current extensive use of antibiotics in dairy herds. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

Uncertainty theory

CERN Document Server

Liu, Baoding

2015-01-01

When no samples are available to estimate a probability distribution, we have to invite some domain experts to evaluate the belief degree that each event will happen. Perhaps some people think that the belief degree should be modeled by subjective probability or fuzzy set theory. However, it is usually inappropriate because both of them may lead to counterintuitive results in this case. In order to rationally deal with belief degrees, uncertainty theory was founded in 2007 and subsequently studied by many researchers. Nowadays, uncertainty theory has become a branch of axiomatic mathematics for modeling belief degrees. This is an introductory textbook on uncertainty theory, uncertain programming, uncertain statistics, uncertain risk analysis, uncertain reliability analysis, uncertain set, uncertain logic, uncertain inference, uncertain process, uncertain calculus, and uncertain differential equation. This textbook also shows applications of uncertainty theory to scheduling, logistics, networks, data mining, c...

Protection motivation theory and adolescent drug trafficking: relationship between health motivation and longitudinal risk involvement.

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Ying; Stanton, Bonita F; Li, Xiaoming; Galbraith, Jennifer; Cole, Matthew L

2005-03-01

To assess health protection motivation as explained by the constructs of protection motivation theory (PMT) and its association with drug trafficking over 2 years. The sample included 817 African American youth (13-16 years old) participating in an adolescent risk-reduction program. We developed an instrument measuring the level of health protection motivation (LHPM) using factor analysis. Changes in LHPM over time were examined among drug traffickers, abstainers, initiators, and nonrisk youths. In sum, 151 participants reported selling and/or delivering drugs during the study period. The significant inverse correlation between drug-trafficking intention and health protection motivation was consistent with PMT. Changes in LHPM were strongly associated with the dynamics of behavior over 2 years. Adolescent drug trafficking can be predicted by an overall level of health protection motivation. PMT and related theories should be considered in the design of drug-trafficking prevention intervention.

Nuclear terrorism risk analysis using game theory. Case study of sea transportation of MOX fuel

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nakatani, Eri; Tanaka, Satoru; Choi, Jor-Shan

2010-01-01

While considerable attention and resources have been directed towards improving nuclear security in Japan in response to the threat of nuclear terrorism, the transport of nuclear material raises concern by the public as indicated in the recent return of MOX fuel from Europe. This concern cannot be adequately addressed by the government through communications with the public because of the confidential nature of such transport. Also, it remains a challenge for adequately assessing the nuclear terrorism risk because many key parameters associated with such assessment cannot be derived from statistical data and reflect actors' intentions unlike assessment on natural disasters. This study proposes an assessment methodology which introduces game theory to deduce the correlations between those key parameters and can be used to analyze the nuclear terrorism risk, both quantitatively and qualitatively for the civilian use of nuclear power. Risk will be calculated by Monte Carlo methods based on probability distributions set for actors' utilities. A case-study of transporting the MOX fuel by sea is also included. (author)

Framing effects and risk-sensitive decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Mishra, Sandeep; Gregson, Margaux; Lalumière, Martin L

2012-02-01

Prospect theory suggests that people are risk-averse when facing gains, but risk-prone when facing losses, a pattern known as the framing effect. Although framing effects have been widely demonstrated, few studies have investigated framing effects under conditions of need. Risk-sensitivity theory predicts that decision makers should prefer high-risk options in situations of high need, when lower risk options are unlikely to meet those needs. In two experiments, we examined (1) whether framing effects occurred in behavioural tasks involving risky decision making from description and decision making from experience, (2) whether participants' risky decision making conformed to the predictions of risk-sensitivity theory, and (3) whether decision framing interacted with conditions of need to influence decision making under risk. The results suggest that under all circumstances, risky decision making conformed to the predictions of risk-sensitivity theory. Framing effects were at least partially demonstrable under all experimental conditions. Finally, negative frames interacted with situations of high need to produce particularly elevated levels of risky choice. Together, the results suggest that risk-sensitivity theory can augment prospect theory to explain choice under conditions of need. ©2011 The British Psychological Society.

Theory matters for financial advice!

OpenAIRE

Mayer, János; Hens, Thorsten

2013-01-01

We show that the optimal asset allocation for an investor depends crucially on the theory with which the investor is modeled. For the same market data and the same client data different theories lead to different portfolios. The market data we consider is standard asset allocation data. The client data is determined by a standard risk profiling question and the theories we apply are mean-variance analysis, expected utility analysis and cumulative prospect theory.

Risk Assessment in Finland: Theory and Practice

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hannu Anttonen

2010-09-01

Full Text Available The Finnish risk assessment practice is based on the Occupational Safety and Health Act aiming to improve working conditions in order maintain the employees' work ability, and to prevent occupational accidents and diseases. In practice there are hundreds of risk assessment methods in use. A simple method is used in SME's and more complex risk evaluation methods in larger work places. Does the risk management function in the work places in Finland? According to our experience something more is needed. That is, understanding of common and company related benefits of risk management. The wider conclusion is that commitment for risk assessment in Finland is high enough. However, in those enterprises where OSH management was at an acceptable level or above it, there were also more varied and more successfully accomplished actions to remove or reduce the risks than in enterprises, where OSH management was in lower level. In risk assessment it is important to process active technical prevention and exact communication, increase work place attraction and increase job satisfaction and motivation. Investments in occupational safety and health are also good business. Low absenteeism due to illness or accidents increases directly the production results by improved quality and quantity of the product. In general Finnish studies have consistently shown that the return of an invested euro is three to seven-old. In national level, according to our calculations the savings could be even 20% of our gross national product.

Thirty Years of Prospect Theory in Economics: A Review and Assessment

OpenAIRE

Nicholas C. Barberis

2013-01-01

In 1979, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, published a paper in Econometrica titled "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk." The paper presented a new model of risk attitudes called "prospect theory," which elegantly captured the experimental evidence on risk taking, including the documented violations of expected utility. More than 30 years later, prospect theory is still widely viewed as the best available description of how people evaluate risk in experimental settings. Howev...

The influence of jumping risk and volatility risk on TAIEX option return

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Wei-Long; Hsieh, Ching-Tang; Huang, Jui-Chan; Wu, Tzu-Jung

2017-06-01

Due to the low profits in recent years environmental, as well as the development of financial engineering that promote the derivatives trading Volume increased. Moreover, the fastest-growing of selected right and the lack of research about option risk. This study aim to explore the relationship between the risk and reward of selected right in Taiwan index. This study focus on the pricing the jump risk of selected right in Taiwan index. Using cross-sectional data as a 12-month study period, using the iteration method to research the effects of abnormal returns, the result shows that different risk factors of fluctuations affected the abnormal returns obviously will cause risk premium as well as the jump risk which consistent with the theory of behavioral finance. However, according to traditional finance theory, contrary to the results of this study consider that higher risks should generate higher-paying as well. According this study, the investors in behavioral finance in modern financial theory is not rational, and the trading behavior is non-random, moreover, the financial market is non-efficiency. Instead, the high risk low reward.

On risks and acceptability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Watson, S.R.

1981-01-01

A very attractive notion is that it should be possible not only to determine how much risk is associated with any particular activity, but also to determine if that risk is acceptable. Stated boldly this seems an entirely unobjectionable and indeed a very acceptable notion. There is, however, underlying this idea, a mistaken view of risk which we might refer to as the ''phlogiston'' theory of risk. In this paper, presented at the SRP meeting on Ethical and Legal Aspects of Radiological Protection, the phlogiston theory of risk is described; secondly, it will be argued that it is too simple a theory to be realistic or useful; and thirdly, the management of risk will be placed in a wider decision framework. Acceptability, it will be argued is highly dependent on context, and it is not possible, therefore, to lay down generally applicable notions of acceptability. (author)

Prospect Theory for Online Financial Trading

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Yang-Yu; Nacher, Jose C.; Ochiai, Tomoshiro; Martino, Mauro; Altshuler, Yaniv

2014-03-01

Prospect theory is widely viewed as the best available descriptive model of how people evaluate risk in experimental settings. According to prospect theory, people make decisions based on the potential value of losses and gains rather than the final outcome. People are risk-averse with respect to gains and risk-seeking with respect to losses, a phenomenon called ``loss aversion''. Despite of the fact that prospect theory has been well studied in behavioral economics at the theoretical level, there exist very few empirical research and most of them has been undertaken with micro-panel data. Here we analyze the trading activities of over 1.5 million members of an online financial trading community over 28 months, aiming to explore the large-scale empirical aspect of prospect theory. By analyzing and comparing the behaviour of ``winners'' and ``losers'', i.e., traders with positive or negative final net profit, we find clear evidence of the loss aversion phenomenon, an essence in prospect theory. This work demonstrates an unprecedented large-scale empirical evidence of prospect theory. It has immediate implication in financial trading, e.g., developing new trading strategies by minimizing the effect of loss aversion. It also provides opportunity to augment online social trading, where users are allowed to watch and follow the trading activity of others, by predicting potential winners based on their historical trading behaviour.

Health Risk Perceptions and Exercise in Older Adulthood: An Application of Protection Motivation Theory.

Science.gov (United States)

Ruthig, Joelle C

2016-09-01

Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) was applied to explore the relationship between perceived risk of acute health crises and intent to exercise. Interviews of 351 community-living older adults assessed prior physical activity (PPA), all PMT components, and exercise intent. A multi-group structural equation model revealed gender differences in PMT predictors of exercise intent. PPA, age, self-efficacy, and response efficacy directly predicted men's intent. Women's PPA and age predicted PMT components of self-efficacy and response costs, which predicted intent. Findings have implications for devising interventions to enhance physical activity in later life by targeting different PMT components for older men and women. © The Author(s) 2014.

Evidence Theory Based Uncertainty Quantification in Radiological Risk due to Accidental Release of Radioactivity from a Nuclear Power Plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ingale, S. V.; Datta, D.

2010-01-01

Consequence of the accidental release of radioactivity from a nuclear power plant is assessed in terms of exposure or dose to the members of the public. Assessment of risk is routed through this dose computation. Dose computation basically depends on the basic dose assessment model and exposure pathways. One of the exposure pathways is the ingestion of contaminated food. The aim of the present paper is to compute the uncertainty associated with the risk to the members of the public due to the ingestion of contaminated food. The governing parameters of the ingestion dose assessment model being imprecise, we have approached evidence theory to compute the bound of the risk. The uncertainty is addressed by the belief and plausibility fuzzy measures.

Measuring Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall of crude oil portfolio using extreme value theory and vine copula

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Wenhua; Yang, Kun; Wei, Yu; Lei, Likun

2018-01-01

Volatilities of crude oil price have important impacts on the steady and sustainable development of world real economy. Thus it is of great academic and practical significance to model and measure the volatility and risk of crude oil markets accurately. This paper aims to measure the Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) of a portfolio consists of four crude oil assets by using GARCH-type models, extreme value theory (EVT) and vine copulas. The backtesting results show that the combination of GARCH-type-EVT models and vine copula methods can produce accurate risk measures of the oil portfolio. Mixed R-vine copula is more flexible and superior to other vine copulas. Different GARCH-type models, which can depict the long-memory and/or leverage effect of oil price volatilities, however offer similar marginal distributions of the oil returns.

Possibility Theory and the Risk

CERN Document Server

Georgescu, Irina

2012-01-01

The book deals with some of the fundamental issues of risk assessment in grid computing environments. The book describes the development of a hybrid probabilistic and possibilistic model for assessing the success of a computing task in a grid environment

Testing the incentive-sensitization theory with at-risk drinkers: wanting, liking, and alcohol consumption.

Science.gov (United States)

Ostafin, Brian D; Marlatt, G Alan; Troop-Gordon, Wendy

2010-03-01

Motivational models of addiction typically propose that alcohol and drugs are desired because of their hedonic effects (i.e., increasing pleasure or reducing distress). In contrast, the incentive-sensitization theory proposes that wanting motivation and liking motivation are separable and that after repeated substance use, motivation shifts from liking to wanting. Using a sample of 85 at-risk drinkers (as defined by the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism), in the current study we examined the separability of liking motivation and wanting motivation for alcohol and whether years of drinking experience was associated with an increased role for wanting motivation and a decreased role for liking motivation. Consumption was measured with a free-drinking task. Wanting motivation was assessed immediately before drinking, and liking was assessed immediately after drinking had begun. The results indicated that (a) wanting motivation predicted variance of consumption unique from that accounted for by liking motivation, (b) longer drinking experience was associated with a decreased relation between liking motivation and consumption, and (c) longer drinking experience was not associated with an increased relation between wanting motivation and consumption. The results provide partial support for the incentive-sensitization theory.

Potential for accidents in a nuclear power plant: probabilistic risk assessment, applied statistical decision theory, and implications of such considerations to mathematics education

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dios, R.A.

1984-01-01

This dissertation focuses upon the field of probabilistic risk assessment and its development. It investigates the development of probabilistic risk assessment in nuclear engineering. To provide background for its development, the related areas of population dynamics (demography), epidemiology and actuarial science are studied by presenting information upon how risk has been viewed in these areas over the years. A second major problem involves presenting an overview of the mathematical models related to risk analysis to mathematics educators and making recommendations for presenting this theory in classes of probability and statistics for mathematics and engineering majors at the undergraduate and graduate levels

Entrepreneurs Facing Risk

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zichella, Giulio; Reichstein, Toke

to choose risk vis-à-vis certainty. Drawing on prospect theory, we formulate hypotheses about the greater likelihood that entrepreneurs (compared to others) will choose risk immediately after a positive gain, but will shy away from risk compared to others as the degree of risk increases. The hypotheses......Theory conjectures that entrepreneurs are more likely than others to make risky choices. However, the empirical evidence is mixed. This paper offers new insights into entrepreneurs’ tendencies to make risky choices, by investigating the circumstances in which entrepreneurs are more/less likely...... are tested using data collected in laboratory-based real money games experiments. We find support for our hypotheses, indicating that entrepreneurs’ bias towards risk is circumstantial. These results have fundamental implications for our understanding of factors guiding entrepreneurial choices under risk...

Collision Avoidance Short Course: Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis - NASA Robotic CARA. Part I: ; Theory

Science.gov (United States)

Hejduk, M. D.; Frigm, Ryan C.

2015-01-01

Satellite conjunction assessment is perhaps the fastest growing area in space situational awareness and protection with military, civil and commercial satellite owner-operators embracing more and more sophisticated processes to avoid the avoidable - namely collisions between high value space assets and orbital debris. NASA and Centre National d'Etudes Spatiales (CNES) have collaborated to offer an introductory short course on all the major aspects of the conjunctions assessment problem. This half-day course will cover satellite conjunction dynamics and theory. Joint Space Operations Center (JsPOC) conjunction data products, major risk assessment parameters and plots, conjunction remediation decision support, and present and future challenges. This briefing represents the NASA portion of the course.

Optimal investment and location decisions of a firm in a flood risk area using Impulse Control Theory

Science.gov (United States)

Grames, Johanna; Grass, Dieter; Kort, Peter; Prskawetz, Alexia

2017-04-01

Flooding events can affect businesses close to rivers, lakes or coasts. This paper provides a partial equilibrium model which helps to understand the optimal location choice for a firm in flood risk areas and its investment strategies. How often, when and how much are firms willing to invest in flood risk protection measures? We apply Impulse Control Theory to solve the model analytically and develop a continuation algorithm to solve the model numerically. Firms always invest in flood defense. The investment increases the higher the flood risk and the more firms also value the future, i.e. the more sustainable they plan. Investments in production capital follow a similar path. Hence, planning in a sustainable way leads to economic growth. Sociohydrological feedbacks are crucial for the location choice of the firm, whereas different economic situations have an impact on investment strategies. If flood defense is already present, e.g. built up by the government, firms move closer to the water and invest less in flood defense, which allows firms to accrue higher expected profits. Firms with a large initial production capital surprisingly try not to keep their market advantage, but rather reduce flood risk by reducing exposed production capital.

Identifying beliefs underlying pre-drivers' intentions to take risks: An application of the Theory of Planned Behaviour.

Science.gov (United States)

Rowe, Richard; Andrews, Elizabeth; Harris, Peter R; Armitage, Christopher J; McKenna, Frank P; Norman, Paul

2016-04-01

Novice motorists are at high crash risk during the first few months of driving. Risky behaviours such as speeding and driving while distracted are well-documented contributors to crash risk during this period. To reduce this public health burden, effective road safety interventions need to target the pre-driving period. We use the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) to identify the pre-driver beliefs underlying intentions to drive over the speed limit (N=77), and while over the legal alcohol limit (N=72), talking on a hand-held mobile phone (N=77) and feeling very tired (N=68). The TPB explained between 41% and 69% of the variance in intentions to perform these behaviours. Attitudes were strong predictors of intentions for all behaviours. Subjective norms and perceived behavioural control were significant, though weaker, independent predictors of speeding and mobile phone use. Behavioural beliefs underlying these attitudes could be separated into those reflecting perceived disadvantages (e.g., speeding increases my risk of crash) and advantages (e.g., speeding gives me a thrill). Interventions that can make these beliefs safer in pre-drivers may reduce crash risk once independent driving has begun. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An Intervention for HPV Risk Reduction Based on the Theory of Planned Behavior: An Exploratory Study with College-Aged Women

Science.gov (United States)

Sweeney, Jocelyn Brineman; McAnulty, Richard D.; Reeve, Charlie; Cann, Arnie

2015-01-01

The goal of the study was to examine the effectiveness of a group intervention in reducing risks of contracting human papillomavirus (HPV) among college-aged women. Using a randomized design, the study examined the effectiveness of an HPV educational group intervention guided by the Theory of Planned Behavior. The intervention was provided in a…

Behavioural agency theory and the family business

OpenAIRE

Kumeto, Gershon

2015-01-01

The behavioural agency theory was developed to provide a more comprehensive explanation and prediction of managerial risk taking, in response to some shortcomings of agency theory. In general, the theory offers explanations of why decision makers prefer some strategic choices to others. The use of behavioural agency theory in family business research has, however, been very limited. Family business scholars recently adapted this theory to construct the family business variant, the ‘socioemoti...

Candidate worldviews for design theory

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Galle, Per

2008-01-01

Our growing body of design theory risks being infected by more inconsistency than is justifiable by genuine disagreement among design theorists. Taking my cue from C. S. Peirce, who argued that theory inevitably rests on basic metaphysical assumptions that theorists ought to be critically aware of......, I demonstrate how ‘insidious inconsistency’ may infect design theory if we ignore his admonition. As a possible remedy, I propose a method by which the philosophy of design may develop sound metaphysical foundations (‘worldviews’) for design theory – and generate philosophical insights into design...... to the metaphysical (pre-empirical) and  conceptual foundations of design theory....

An Axiomatization of Cumulative Prospect Theory for Decision under Risk

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wakker, P.P.; Chateauneuf, A.

1999-01-01

Cumulative prospect theory was introduced by Tversky and Kahneman so as to combine the empirical realism of their original prospect theory with the theoretical advantages of Quiggin's rank-dependent utility. Preference axiomatizations were provided in several papers. All those axiomatizations,

Behavioural Susceptibility Theory: Professor Jane Wardle and the Role of Appetite in Genetic Risk of Obesity.

Science.gov (United States)

Llewellyn, Clare H; Fildes, Alison

2017-03-01

There is considerable variability in human body weight, despite the ubiquity of the 'obesogenic' environment. Human body weight has a strong genetic basis and it has been hypothesised that genetic susceptibility to the environment explains variation in human body weight, with differences in appetite being implicated as the mediating mechanism; so-called 'behavioural susceptibility theory' (BST), first described by Professor Jane Wardle. This review summarises the evidence for the role of appetite as a mediator of genetic risk of obesity. Variation in appetitive traits is observable from infancy, drives early weight gain and is highly heritable in infancy and childhood. Obesity-related common genetic variants identified through genome-wide association studies show associations with appetitive traits, and appetite mediates part of the observed association between genetic risk and adiposity. Obesity results from an interaction between genetic susceptibility to overeating and exposure to an 'obesogenic' food environment.

Prospect theory for online financial trading.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Yang-Yu; Nacher, Jose C; Ochiai, Tomoshiro; Martino, Mauro; Altshuler, Yaniv

2014-01-01

Prospect theory is widely viewed as the best available descriptive model of how people evaluate risk in experimental settings. According to prospect theory, people are typically risk-averse with respect to gains and risk-seeking with respect to losses, known as the "reflection effect". People are much more sensitive to losses than to gains of the same magnitude, a phenomenon called "loss aversion". Despite of the fact that prospect theory has been well developed in behavioral economics at the theoretical level, there exist very few large-scale empirical studies and most of the previous studies have been undertaken with micro-panel data. Here we analyze over 28.5 million trades made by 81.3 thousand traders of an online financial trading community over 28 months, aiming to explore the large-scale empirical aspect of prospect theory. By analyzing and comparing the behavior of winning and losing trades and traders, we find clear evidence of the reflection effect and the loss aversion phenomenon, which are essential in prospect theory. This work hence demonstrates an unprecedented large-scale empirical evidence of prospect theory, which has immediate implication in financial trading, e.g., developing new trading strategies by minimizing the impact of the reflection effect and the loss aversion phenomenon. Moreover, we introduce three novel behavioral metrics to differentiate winning and losing traders based on their historical trading behavior. This offers us potential opportunities to augment online social trading where traders are allowed to watch and follow the trading activities of others, by predicting potential winners based on their historical trading behavior.

Prospect theory for online financial trading.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yang-Yu Liu

Full Text Available Prospect theory is widely viewed as the best available descriptive model of how people evaluate risk in experimental settings. According to prospect theory, people are typically risk-averse with respect to gains and risk-seeking with respect to losses, known as the "reflection effect". People are much more sensitive to losses than to gains of the same magnitude, a phenomenon called "loss aversion". Despite of the fact that prospect theory has been well developed in behavioral economics at the theoretical level, there exist very few large-scale empirical studies and most of the previous studies have been undertaken with micro-panel data. Here we analyze over 28.5 million trades made by 81.3 thousand traders of an online financial trading community over 28 months, aiming to explore the large-scale empirical aspect of prospect theory. By analyzing and comparing the behavior of winning and losing trades and traders, we find clear evidence of the reflection effect and the loss aversion phenomenon, which are essential in prospect theory. This work hence demonstrates an unprecedented large-scale empirical evidence of prospect theory, which has immediate implication in financial trading, e.g., developing new trading strategies by minimizing the impact of the reflection effect and the loss aversion phenomenon. Moreover, we introduce three novel behavioral metrics to differentiate winning and losing traders based on their historical trading behavior. This offers us potential opportunities to augment online social trading where traders are allowed to watch and follow the trading activities of others, by predicting potential winners based on their historical trading behavior.

Bringing appraisal theory to environmental risk perception: a review of conceptual approaches of the past 40 years and suggestions for future research

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Keller, Carmen; Bostrom, Ann; Kuttschreuter, M.; Savadori, Lucia; Spence, Alexia; White, Mathew

2012-01-01

An intensive program of 40 years of research has produced various conceptual cognitive and affective approaches to environmental risk perception. In this short review of the most relevant conceptual approaches, appraisal theory is presented as a useful means of integrating cognitive and affective

Risk assessment terminology: risk communication part 1

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gaetano Liuzzo

2016-03-01

Full Text Available The paper describes the terminology of risk communication in the view of food safety: the theory of stakeholders, the citizens’ involvement and the community interest and consultation are reported. Different aspects of risk communication (public communication, scientific uncertainty, trust, care, consensus and crisis communication are discussed.

Risk measures on networks and expected utility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cerqueti, Roy; Lupi, Claudio

2016-01-01

In reliability theory projects are usually evaluated in terms of their riskiness, and often decision under risk is intended as the one-shot-type binary choice of accepting or not accepting the risk. In this paper we elaborate on the concept of risk acceptance, and propose a theoretical framework based on network theory. In doing this, we deal with system reliability, where the interconnections among the random quantities involved in the decision process are explicitly taken into account. Furthermore, we explore the conditions to be satisfied for risk-acceptance criteria to be consistent with the axiomatization of standard expected utility theory within the network framework. In accordance with existing literature, we show that a risk evaluation criterion can be meaningful even if it is not consistent with the standard axiomatization of expected utility, once this is suitably reinterpreted in the light of networks. Finally, we provide some illustrative examples. - Highlights: • We discuss risk acceptance and theoretically develop this theme on the basis of network theory. • We propose an original framework for describing the algebraic structure of the set of the networks, when they are viewed as risks. • We introduce the risk measures on networks, which induce total orders on the set of networks. • We state conditions on the risk measures on networks to let the induced risk-acceptance criterion be consistent with a new formulation of the expected utility theory.

Risk Aversion, Price Uncertainty and Irreversible Investments

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van den Goorbergh, R.W.J.; Huisman, K.J.M.; Kort, P.M.

2003-01-01

This paper generalizes the theory of irreversible investment under uncertainty by allowing for risk averse investors in the absence of com-plete markets.Until now this theory has only been developed in the cases of risk neutrality, or risk aversion in combination with complete markets.Within a

Suicide Risk across Latent Class Subgroups: A Test of the Generalizability of the Interpersonal Psychological Theory of Suicide.

Science.gov (United States)

Ma, Jennifer S; Batterham, Philip J; Calear, Alison L; Han, Jin

2018-01-06

It remains unclear whether the Interpersonal Psychological Theory of Suicide (IPTS; Joiner, ) is generalizable to the population or holds more explanatory power for certain subgroups compared to others. The aim of this study was to (1) identify subgroups of individuals who endorsed suicide ideation in the past month based on a range of mental health and demographic variables, (2) compare levels of the IPTS constructs within these subgroups, and (3) test the IPTS predictions for suicide ideation and suicide attempt for each group. Latent class, negative binomial, linear, and logistic regression analyses were conducted on population-based data obtained from 1,321 adults recruited from Facebook. Among participants reporting suicide ideation, four distinct patterns of risk factors emerged based on age and severity of mental health symptoms. Groups with highly elevated mental health symptoms reported the highest levels of thwarted belongingness and perceived burdensomeness. Tests of the IPTS interactions provided partial support for the theory, primarily in young adults with elevated mental health symptoms. Lack of support found for the IPTS predictions across the subgroups and full sample in this study raise some questions around the broad applicability of the theory. © 2018 The American Association of Suicidology.

NON-EXPECTED UTILITY THEORIES: WEIGHTED EXPECTED, RANK DEPENDENT, AND CUMULATIVE PROSPECT THEORY UTILITY

OpenAIRE

Tuthill, Jonathan W.; Frechette, Darren L.

2002-01-01

This paper discusses some of the failings of expected utility including the Allais paradox and expected utility's inadequate one dimensional characterization of risk. Three alternatives to expected utility are discussed at length; weighted expected utility, rank dependent utility, and cumulative prospect theory. Each alternative is capable of explaining Allais paradox type problems and permits more sophisticated multi dimensional risk preferences.

Auditory processing, speech perception and phonological ability in pre-school children at high-risk for dyslexia: a longitudinal study of the auditory temporal processing theory

OpenAIRE

Boets, Bart; Wouters, Jan; Van Wieringen, Astrid; Ghesquière, Pol

2007-01-01

This study investigates whether the core bottleneck of literacy-impairment should be situated at the phonological level or at a more basic sensory level, as postulated by supporters of the auditory temporal processing theory. Phonological ability, speech perception and low-level auditory processing were assessed in a group of 5-year-old pre-school children at high-family risk for dyslexia, compared to a group of well-matched low-risk control children. Based on family risk status and first gra...

Some Links Between Game Theory and Decision Theory in Economics

OpenAIRE

Dominika Crnjac; Goran Martinovic

2009-01-01

Certain optimal strategies based upon game theory are given in this paper. A decision-making function and a risk function are explained. Decision-making criteria are applied for determining best decision-making functions with respect to a specific criterion. Special attention is given to the minimax criterion.

Catastrophe theory with application in nuclear technology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Valeca, Serban Constantin

2002-01-01

The monograph is structured on the following seven chapters: 1. Correlation of risk, catastrophe and chaos at the level of polyfunctional systems with nuclear injection; 1.1 Approaching the risk at the level of power systems; 1.2 Modelling the chaos-catastrophe-risk correlation in the structure of integrated classical and nuclear processes; 2. Catastrophe theory applied in ecosystems models and applications; 2.1 Posing the problems in catastrophe theory; 2.2 Application of catastrophe theory in the engineering of the power ecosystems with nuclear injection; 4.. Decision of abatement of the catastrophic risk based on minimal costs; 4.1 The nuclear power systems sensitive to risk-catastrophe-chaos in the structure of minimal costs; 4.2 Evaluating the market structure on the basis of power minimal costs; 4.3 Decisions in power systems built on minimal costs; 5. Models of computing the minimal costs in classical and nuclear power systems; 5.1 Calculation methodologies of power minimal cost; 5.2 Calculation methods of minimal costs in nuclear power sector; 6. Expert and neuro expert systems for supervising the risk-catastrophe-chaos correlation; 6.1 The structure of expert systems; 6.2 Application of the neuro expert program; 7. Conclusions and operational proposals; 7.1 A synthesis of the problems presented in this work; 7.2 Highlighting the novel aspects applicable in the power systems with nuclear injection

Risk Worth Taking - Entrepreneurial Behaviour When Faced with Risk and Uncertainty

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zichella, Giulio

theory suggests differences in risk taking due to individual characteristics. However, entrepreneurship theory did not provide empirical support for such differences. Using data from a laboratory experiment with simple money games, we observe how individuals from two different groups (entrepreneurial......-oriented, non-entrepreneurial-oriented) react to different degrees of risk and uncertainty when real monetary incentives are involved in each decision. The analysis reveals significant differences between entrepreneurial and non-entrepreneurial-oriented individuals in their decision making. In particular...

Multi-Wave Prospective Examination of the Stress-Reactivity Extension of Response Styles Theory of Depression in High-Risk Children and Early Adolescents

Science.gov (United States)

Abela, John R. Z.; Hankin, Benjamin L.; Sheshko, Dana M.; Fishman, Michael B.; Stolow, Darren

2012-01-01

The current study tested the stress-reactivity extension of response styles theory of depression (Nolen-Hoeksema "Journal of Abnormal Psychology" 100:569-582, 1991) in a sample of high-risk children and early adolescents from a vulnerability-stress perspective using a multi-wave longitudinal design. In addition, we examined whether obtained…

Statistics and risk philosophy in human activities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Failla, L.

1983-01-01

Two leading interpretations of the use of statistics exist, the first one considering statistics as a physical law regulating the phenomena studied, and the other considering statistics as a method allowing to achieve exhaustive knowledge of the phenomena. The Author chooses the second theory, applies this concept of statistics to the risk involved in human activities and discusses the different kinds of risk in this field. The Author distinguishes between the risk that can be eliminated or at least reduced, and the risk inherent in the activity itself, that can never be completely eliminated -unless the activity is suppressed-; yet, also this kind of risk can be kept under control. Furthermore, she distinguishes between risks that can or cannot be foreseen. The Author supports the theory according to which the risk foreseen must be prevented through up-to-date techniques: this should be done coherently with the aim of the activity but independently of the economic cost. The theory considering risk probability as a physical law is mainly based on events happened in the past: it uses the occurrence probability as a law. This theory accepts the statistical risk and estimates its costs, including the ''human cost''. The Author examines the different statistical possibilities to study this specific phenomenon: so, the possibility to avoid the risks may arise along with -last but not least- the opportunity to eliminate or reduce the damage connected. On the contrary, statistics used as a physical law implies the acceptable of a given amount of risk compared with the cost of improving the technical conditions required to eliminate damages. In the end, a practical example of this theory is described

Academic decision making and prospect theory.

Science.gov (United States)

Mowrer, Robert R; Davidson, William B

2011-08-01

Two studies are reported that investigate the applicability of prospect theory to college students' academic decision making. Exp. 1 failed to provide support for the risk-seeking portion of the fourfold pattern predicted by prospect theory but did find the greater weighting of losses over gains. Using a more sensitive dependent measure, in Exp. 2 the results of the first experiment were replicated in terms of the gain-loss effect and also found some support for the fourfold pattern in the interaction between probabilities and gain versus loss. The greatest risk-seeking was found in the high probability loss condition.

Unraveling the link between managerial risk-taking and innovation: The mediating role of a risk-taking climate

OpenAIRE

García-Granero , Ana; Llopis , Óscar; Fernández-Mesa , Anabel; Alegre , Joaquín

2015-01-01

International audience; Scholars have proposed that taking risks in organizations is important for explaining innovation performance. Scholars traditionally have analyzed this link from two unconnected perspectives. From a managerial perspective, entrepreneurial orientation and leadership theories have been used to explain the positive relation between risk taking and innovation. From an employee perspective, creativity theory suggests that a risk-taking climate helps to explain innovative be...

A philosophical assessment of decision theory

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Karsten Klint

2012-01-01

modern axiomatic decision theory is an instance of fundamental measurement theory. This is then followed by a thorough introduction to Savage’s version of modern axiomatic decision theory. Turning to the interpretation of the theory, the maxim “maximize expected utility,” which stems from classical...... assignments. In the modern approach, the action guidance is to conform to the axioms. Analyzing decision theory as a theory of good, the maxim “maximize expected goodness” repeats the misunderstanding. Moreover, it implies risk neutrality about good and a cardinal measure of good, and both are problematic......The significance of decision theory consists of giving an account of rational decision making under circumstances of uncertainty. This question is important both from the point of view of what is in our personal interest and from the point of view of what is ethically right. But decision theory...

Integrating Household Risk Mitigation Behavior in Flood Risk Analysis: An Agent-Based Model Approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Haer, Toon; Botzen, W J Wouter; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen C J H

2017-10-01

Recent studies showed that climate change and socioeconomic trends are expected to increase flood risks in many regions. However, in these studies, human behavior is commonly assumed to be constant, which neglects interaction and feedback loops between human and environmental systems. This neglect of human adaptation leads to a misrepresentation of flood risk. This article presents an agent-based model that incorporates human decision making in flood risk analysis. In particular, household investments in loss-reducing measures are examined under three economic decision models: (1) expected utility theory, which is the traditional economic model of rational agents; (2) prospect theory, which takes account of bounded rationality; and (3) a prospect theory model, which accounts for changing risk perceptions and social interactions through a process of Bayesian updating. We show that neglecting human behavior in flood risk assessment studies can result in a considerable misestimation of future flood risk, which is in our case study an overestimation of a factor two. Furthermore, we show how behavior models can support flood risk analysis under different behavioral assumptions, illustrating the need to include the dynamic adaptive human behavior of, for instance, households, insurers, and governments. The method presented here provides a solid basis for exploring human behavior and the resulting flood risk with respect to low-probability/high-impact risks. © 2016 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

Risk perception, risk taking, accident involvement and the need for stimulation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Heino, A.; van der Molen, H.H.; Wilde, G.J S

1996-01-01

In Wilde's risk homeostasis theory, it is assumed that people have a target risk which guides their behaviour. The prime purpose of this experimental on-road study was to establish the effect of the need for stimulation or sensation seeking on this target risk. in addition, the relationship between

Human disease mortality kinetics are explored through a chain model embodying principles of extreme value theory and competing risks.

Science.gov (United States)

Juckett, D A; Rosenberg, B

1992-04-21

The distributions for human disease-specific mortality exhibit two striking characteristics: survivorship curves that intersect near the longevity limit; and, the clustering of best-fitting Weibull shape parameter values into groups centered on integers. Correspondingly, we have hypothesized that the distribution intersections result from either competitive processes or population partitioning and the integral clustering in the shape parameter results from the occurrence of a small number of rare, rate-limiting events in disease progression. In this report we initiate a theoretical examination of these questions by exploring serial chain model dynamics and parameteric competing risks theory. The links in our chain models are composed of more than one bond, where the number of bonds in a link are denoted the link size and are the number of events necessary to break the link and, hence, the chain. We explored chains with all links of the same size or with segments of the chain composed of different size links (competition). Simulations showed that chain breakage dynamics depended on the weakest-link principle and followed kinetics of extreme-values which were very similar to human mortality kinetics. In particular, failure distributions for simple chains were Weibull-type extreme-value distributions with shape parameter values that were identifiable with the integral link size in the limit of infinite chain length. Furthermore, for chains composed of several segments of differing link size, the survival distributions for the various segments converged at a point in the S(t) tails indistinguishable from human data. This was also predicted by parameteric competing risks theory using Weibull underlying distributions. In both the competitive chain simulations and the parametric competing risks theory, however, the shape values for the intersecting distributions deviated from the integer values typical of human data. We conclude that rare events can be the source of

The limits of behaviour change theory: condom use and contexts of HIV risk in the Kolkata sex industry.

Science.gov (United States)

Evans, Catrin; Lambert, Helen

2008-01-01

This paper uses ethnographic data from a sex workers' HIV project in India to consider the appropriateness of individual, social/group and structural theories of health behaviour when applied to HIV-prevention initiatives. Existing theories are critiqued for their modernist representation of behaviour as determined by individual rational decision-making processes or by external structural forces, with inadequate recognition being given to the roles that human agency, subjective meaning and local context play in everyday actions. Analysis of sex workers' accounts of their sexual practices suggests that existing theories of health behaviour can only partially account for sexual behaviour change retrospectively and that they have limited predictive value with respect to the outcomes of individual sexual encounters. Our data show that these outcomes were, in fact, highly context dependent, while possibilities for action were ultimately strongly constrained by structural forces. Findings suggest that interventions need to adopt an integrated, structurally-oriented approach for promoting safer sexual practices in sex work settings. Recognising that no one model of health behaviour is likely to be adequate in explaining or predicting behaviour change encourages responsiveness to local people's agency, recognises the different (health- and non-health-related) registers of risk with which people operate and encourages flexibility according to local contingencies and contexts.

Trait-mediated trophic interactions: is foraging theory keeping up?

Science.gov (United States)

Railsback, Steven F; Harvey, Bret C

2013-02-01

Many ecologists believe that there is a lack of foraging theory that works in community contexts, for populations of unique individuals each making trade-offs between food and risk that are subject to feedbacks from behavior of others. Such theory is necessary to reproduce the trait-mediated trophic interactions now recognized as widespread and strong. Game theory can address feedbacks but does not provide foraging theory for unique individuals in variable environments. 'State- and prediction-based theory' (SPT) is a new approach that combines existing trade-off methods with routine updating: individuals regularly predict future food availability and risk from current conditions to optimize a fitness measure. SPT can reproduce a variety of realistic foraging behaviors and trait-mediated trophic interactions with feedbacks, even when the environment is unpredictable. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling the Impact of Control on the Attractiveness of Risk in a Prospect Theory Framework

Science.gov (United States)

Young, Diana L.; Goodie, Adam S.; Hall, Daniel B.

2010-01-01

Many decisions involve a degree of personal control over event outcomes, which is exerted through one’s knowledge or skill. In three experiments we investigated differences in decision making between prospects based on a) the outcome of random events and b) the outcome of events characterized by control. In Experiment 1, participants estimated certainty equivalents (CEs) for bets based on either random events or the correctness of their answers to U.S. state population questions across the probability spectrum. In Experiment 2, participants estimated CEs for bets based on random events, answers to U.S. state population questions, or answers to questions about 2007 NCAA football game results. Experiment 3 extended the same procedure as Experiment 1 using a within-subjects design. We modeled data from all experiments in a prospect theory framework to establish psychological mechanisms underlying decision behavior. Participants weighted the probabilities associated with bets characterized by control so as to reflect greater risk attractiveness relative to bets based on random events, as evidenced by more elevated weighting functions under conditions of control. This research elucidates possible cognitive mechanisms behind increased risk taking for decisions characterized by control, and implications for various literatures are discussed. PMID:21278906

Modeling the Impact of Control on the Attractiveness of Risk in a Prospect Theory Framework.

Science.gov (United States)

Young, Diana L; Goodie, Adam S; Hall, Daniel B

2011-01-01

Many decisions involve a degree of personal control over event outcomes, which is exerted through one's knowledge or skill. In three experiments we investigated differences in decision making between prospects based on a) the outcome of random events and b) the outcome of events characterized by control. In Experiment 1, participants estimated certainty equivalents (CEs) for bets based on either random events or the correctness of their answers to U.S. state population questions across the probability spectrum. In Experiment 2, participants estimated CEs for bets based on random events, answers to U.S. state population questions, or answers to questions about 2007 NCAA football game results. Experiment 3 extended the same procedure as Experiment 1 using a within-subjects design. We modeled data from all experiments in a prospect theory framework to establish psychological mechanisms underlying decision behavior. Participants weighted the probabilities associated with bets characterized by control so as to reflect greater risk attractiveness relative to bets based on random events, as evidenced by more elevated weighting functions under conditions of control. This research elucidates possible cognitive mechanisms behind increased risk taking for decisions characterized by control, and implications for various literatures are discussed.

Modern Portfolio Theory: Some Main Results

OpenAIRE

Müller, Heinz H.

2017-01-01

This article summarizes some main results in modern portfolio theory. First, the Markowitz approach is presented. Then the capital asset pricing model is derived and its empirical testability is discussed. Afterwards Neumann-Morgenstern utility theory is applied to the portfolio problem. Finally, it is shown how optimal risk allocation in an economy may lead to portfolio insurance

Unsharpness-risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Preyssl, C.

1986-01-01

Safety analysis provides the only tool for evaluation and quantification of rare or hypothetical events leading to system failure. So far probability theory has been used for the fault- and event-tree methodology. The phenomenon of uncertainties constitutes an important aspect in risk analysis. Uncertainties can be classified as originating from 'randomness' or 'fuzziness'. Probability theory addresses randomness only. The use of 'fuzzy set theory' makes it possible to include both types of uncertainty in the mathematical model of risk analysis. Thus the 'fuzzy fault tree' is expressed in 'possibilistic' terms implying a range of simplifications and improvements. 'Human failure' and 'conditionality' can be treated correctly. Only minimum-maximum relations are used to combine the possibility distributions of events. Various event-classifications facilitate the interpretation of the results. The method is demonstrated by application to a TRIGA-research reactor. Uncertainty as an implicit part of 'fuzzy risk' can be quantified explicitly using an 'uncertainty measure'. Based on this the 'degree of relative compliance' with a quantizative safety goal can be defined for a particular risk. The introduction of 'weighting functionals' guarantees the consideration of the importances attached to different parts of the risk exceeding or complying with the standard. The comparison of two reference systems is demonstrated in a case study. It is concluded that any application of the 'fuzzy risk analysis' has to be free of any hypostatization when reducing subjective to objective information. (Author)

A General Framework for Portfolio Theory. Part I: theory and various models

OpenAIRE

Maier-Paape, Stanislaus; Zhu, Qiji Jim

2017-01-01

Utility and risk are two often competing measurements on the investment success. We show that efficient trade-off between these two measurements for investment portfolios happens, in general, on a convex curve in the two dimensional space of utility and risk. This is a rather general pattern. The modern portfolio theory of Markowitz [H. Markowitz, Portfolio Selection, 1959] and its natural generalization, the capital market pricing model, [W. F. Sharpe, Mutual fund performance , 1966] are spe...

Toward a Middle-Range Theory of Weight Management.

Science.gov (United States)

Pickett, Stephanie; Peters, Rosalind M; Jarosz, Patricia A

2014-07-01

The authors of this paper present the middle-range theory of weight management that focuses on cultural, environmental, and psychosocial factors that influence behaviors needed for weight control. The theory of weight management was developed deductively from Orem's theory of self-care, a constituent theory within the broader self-care deficit nursing theory and from research literature. Linkages between the conceptual and middle-range theory concepts are illustrated using a substruction model. The development of the theory of weight management serves to build nursing science by integrating extant nursing theory and empirical knowledge. This theory may help predict weight management in populations at risk for obesity-related disorders. © The Author(s) 2014.

Forecasting the value-at-risk of Chinese stock market using the HARQ model and extreme value theory

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Guangqiang; Wei, Yu; Chen, Yongfei; Yu, Jiang; Hu, Yang

2018-06-01

Using intraday data of the CSI300 index, this paper discusses value-at-risk (VaR) forecasting of the Chinese stock market from the perspective of high-frequency volatility models. First, we measure the realized volatility (RV) with 5-minute high-frequency returns of the CSI300 index and then model it with the newly introduced heterogeneous autoregressive quarticity (HARQ) model, which can handle the time-varying coefficients of the HAR model. Second, we forecast the out-of-sample VaR of the CSI300 index by combining the HARQ model and extreme value theory (EVT). Finally, using several popular backtesting methods, we compare the VaR forecasting accuracy of HARQ model with other traditional HAR-type models, such as HAR, HAR-J, CHAR, and SHAR. The empirical results show that the novel HARQ model can beat other HAR-type models in forecasting the VaR of the Chinese stock market at various risk levels.

Decision-Making Under Risk: Integrating Perspectives From Biology, Economics, and Psychology.

Science.gov (United States)

Mishra, Sandeep

2014-08-01

Decision-making under risk has been variably characterized and examined in many different disciplines. However, interdisciplinary integration has not been forthcoming. Classic theories of decision-making have not been amply revised in light of greater empirical data on actual patterns of decision-making behavior. Furthermore, the meta-theoretical framework of evolution by natural selection has been largely ignored in theories of decision-making under risk in the human behavioral sciences. In this review, I critically examine four of the most influential theories of decision-making from economics, psychology, and biology: expected utility theory, prospect theory, risk-sensitivity theory, and heuristic approaches. I focus especially on risk-sensitivity theory, which offers a framework for understanding decision-making under risk that explicitly involves evolutionary considerations. I also review robust empirical evidence for individual differences and environmental/situational factors that predict actual risky decision-making that any general theory must account for. Finally, I offer steps toward integrating various theoretical perspectives and empirical findings on risky decision-making. © 2014 by the Society for Personality and Social Psychology, Inc.

Managing Risk and Synergies R&D-Collaborations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mahnke, Volker; Overby, Mikkel Lucas

2004-01-01

&D collaborations simultaneously. We use modern portfolio theory as an analogy to show how companies active in mobile telecommunication manage risks and create synergies by simultaneously engaging in several inter-firm collaborations.Keywords: Portfolio theory, risk, synergy, R&D collaboration, mobile commerce...

The background and theory of integrated risk management

Science.gov (United States)

Hunsucker, John L.

1995-01-01

While all good managers have always considered risk in their decision making, only recently have formal programs to do so been introduced. This report covers the logical structure behind the formulation of an integrated risk management plan (IRM). Included in the report are factors forcing the development of a formal plan to consider risk, the basic objective or purpose of an IRM, and desirable traits of such a plan. The report moves on to a discussion of background issues, seeks to formalize some definitions, and then discusses required information on threats. The report concludes with the steps for an IRM.

Risk in social-cultural perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kwee, S.L.

1980-01-01

The author intends to instigate a social-cultural risk theory. He finds the conception of risk is too objectively viewed and feels it should be considered more in relation to the subjective nature of human opinion and action. Objective and quantitative risk calculations on the basis of a theoretical model are possible and accountable, but the eventual assessment and decision making, which are based on these calculations, implicates subjective evaluation. An integral risk theory which takes into account both objective and subjective factors is considered. This can form a basis for a better social consideration and political decision making, an important point in the area of radiation hygiene. (C.F.)

Life history theory and breast cancer risk: methodological and theoretical challenges: Response to "Is estrogen receptor negative breast cancer risk associated with a fast life history strategy?".

Science.gov (United States)

Aktipis, Athena

2016-01-01

In a meta-analysis published by myself and co-authors, we report differences in the life history risk factors for estrogen receptor negative (ER-) and estrogen receptor positive (ER+) breast cancers. Our meta-analysis did not find the association of ER- breast cancer risk with fast life history characteristics that Hidaka and Boddy suggest in their response to our article. There are a number of possible explanations for the differences between their conclusions and the conclusions we drew from our meta-analysis, including limitations of our meta-analysis and methodological challenges in measuring and categorizing estrogen receptor status. These challenges, along with the association of ER+ breast cancer with slow life history characteristics, may make it challenging to find a clear signal of ER- breast cancer with fast life history characteristics, even if that relationship does exist. The contradictory results regarding breast cancer risk and life history characteristics illustrate a more general challenge in evolutionary medicine: often different sub-theories in evolutionary biology make contradictory predictions about disease risk. In this case, life history models predict that breast cancer risk should increase with faster life history characteristics, while the evolutionary mismatch hypothesis predicts that breast cancer risk should increase with delayed reproduction. Whether life history tradeoffs contribute to ER- breast cancer is still an open question, but current models and several lines of evidence suggest that it is a possibility. © The Author(s) 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Foundation for Evolution, Medicine, and Public Health.

The development and implementation of theory-driven programs capable of addressing poverty-impacted children's health, mental health, and prevention needs: CHAMP and CHAMP+, evidence-informed, family-based interventions to address HIV risk and care.

Science.gov (United States)

McKernan McKay, Mary; Alicea, Stacey; Elwyn, Laura; McClain, Zachary R B; Parker, Gary; Small, Latoya A; Mellins, Claude Ann

2014-01-01

This article describes a program of prevention and intervention research conducted by the CHAMP (Collaborative HIV prevention and Adolescent Mental health Project; McKay & Paikoff, 2007 ) investigative team. CHAMP refers to a set of theory-driven, evidence-informed, collaboratively designed, family-based approaches meant to address the prevention, health, and mental health needs of poverty-impacted African American and Latino urban youth who are either at risk for HIV exposure or perinatally infected and at high risk for reinfection and possible transmission. CHAMP approaches are informed by theoretical frameworks that incorporate an understanding of the critical influences of multilevel contextual factors on youth risk taking and engagement in protective health behaviors. Highly influential theories include the triadic theory of influence, social action theory, and ecological developmental perspectives. CHAMP program delivery strategies were developed via a highly collaborative process drawing upon community-based participatory research methods in order to enhance cultural and contextual sensitivity of program content and format. The development and preliminary outcomes associated with a family-based intervention for a new population, perinatally HIV-infected youth and their adult caregivers, referred to as CHAMP+, is described to illustrate the integration of theory, existing evidence, and intensive input from consumers and healthcare providers.

The theory act

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wæver, Ole

2015-01-01

such as social equality or solidarity and equal opportunities for genders, all of which would not be conceivable in a ‘state of nature’ ethology. To acknowledge in theory and investigate such power is at the same time to foster it and defend it against the risk of regression into forms of social life based...

Subjective Illness theory and coping

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gessmann H.-W.

2015-03-01

Full Text Available The article presents a view of a problem of subjective illness theory in context of coping behavior. The article compiles the results of the latest studies of coping; discloses the way subjective illness theory affects the illness coping and patient's health; presents the study of differences in coping behaviour of patients at risk of heart attack and oncology. The article is recommended for specialists, concerned with psychological reasons of pathogenic processes and coping strategies of patients.

A catalog of information systems outsourcing risks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Filipe Sá-Soares

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Information systems outsourcing risks are a vital component in the decision and management process associated to the provision of information systems and technology services by a provider to a customer. Although there is a rich literature on information systems outsourcing risks, the accumulated knowledge on this area is fragmented. In view of this situation, an argument is put forward on the usefulness of having a theory that integrates the various constructs related to information systems outsourcing risks. This study aims to contribute towards the synthesis of that theory, by proposing a conceptual framework for interpreting the literature and presenting a catalog of information systems outsourcing risks. The conceptual framework articulates together six key risk elements, namely dangers, negative outcomes, undesirable consequences, factors and mitigation actions. The catalog condenses and categorizes the information systems outsourcing risk elements found on the literature reviewed, both from the perspective of the outsourcing customer and from the perspective of the outsourcing provider. Proposals for subsequent work towards the generation of the theory of information systems outsourcing risk are suggested.

Trait-mediated trophic interactions: is foraging theory keeping up?

Science.gov (United States)

Steven F. Railsback; Bret C. Harvey

2013-01-01

Many ecologists believe that there is a lack of foraging theory that works in community contexts, for populations of unique individuals each making trade-offs between food and risk that are subject to feedbacks from behavior of others. Such theory is necessary to reproduce the trait-mediated trophic interactions now recognized as widespread and strong. Game theory can...

Vocation in theology-based nursing theories.

Science.gov (United States)

Lundmark, Mikael

2007-11-01

By using the concepts of intrinsicality/extrinsicality as analytic tools, the theology-based nursing theories of Ann Bradshaw and Katie Eriksson are analyzed regarding their explicit and/or implicit understanding of vocation as a motivational factor for nursing. The results show that both theories view intrinsic values as guarantees against reducing nursing practice to mechanistic applications of techniques and as being a way of reinforcing a high ethical standard. The theories explicitly (Bradshaw) or implicitly (Eriksson) advocate a vocational understanding of nursing as being essential for nursing theories. Eriksson's theory has a potential for conceptualizing an understanding of extrinsic and intrinsic motivational factors for nursing but one weakness in the theory could be the risk of slipping over to moral judgments where intrinsic factors are valued as being superior to extrinsic. Bradshaw's theory is more complex and explicit in understanding the concept of vocation and is theologically more plausible, although also more confessional.

Comparing three attitude-behavior theories for predicting science teachers' intentions

Science.gov (United States)

Zint, Michaela

2002-11-01

Social psychologists' attitude-behavior theories can contribute to understanding science teachers' behaviors. Such understanding can, in turn, be used to improve professional development. This article describes leading attitude-behavior theories and summarizes results from past tests of these theories. A study predicting science teachers' intention to incorporate environmental risk education based on these theories is also reported. Data for that study were collected through a mail questionnaire (n = 1336, radjusted = 80%) and analyzed using confirmatory factor and multiple regression analysis. All determinants of intention to act in the Theory of Reasoned Action and Theory of Planned Behavior and some determinants in the Theory of Trying predicted science teachers' environmental risk education intentions. Given the consistency of results across studies, the Theory of Planned Behavior augmented with past behavior is concluded to provide the best attitude-behavior model for predicting science teachers' intention to act. Thus, science teachers' attitude toward the behavior, perceived behavioral control, and subjective norm need to be enhanced to modify their behavior. Based on the Theory of Trying, improving their attitude toward the process and toward success, and expectations of success may also result in changes. Future research should focus on identifying determinants that can further enhance the ability of these theories to predict and explain science teachers' behaviors.

Theoretical framework to study exercise motivation for breast cancer risk reduction.

Science.gov (United States)

Wood, Maureen E

2008-01-01

To identify an appropriate theoretical framework to study exercise motivation for breast cancer risk reduction among high-risk women. An extensive review of the literature was conducted to gather relevant information pertaining to the Health Promotion Model, self-determination theory, social cognitive theory, Health Belief Model, Transtheoretical Model, theory of planned behavior, and protection motivation theory. An iterative approach was used to summarize the literature related to exercise motivation within each theoretical framework. Protection motivation theory could be used to examine the effects of perceived risk and self-efficacy in motivating women to exercise to facilitate health-related behavioral change. Evidence-based research within a chosen theoretical model can aid practitioners when making practical recommendations to reduce breast cancer risk.

Infusing fundamental cause theory with features of Pierre Bourdieu's theory of symbolic power.

Science.gov (United States)

Veenstra, Gerry

2018-02-01

The theory of fundamental causes is one of the more influential attempts to provide a theoretical infrastructure for the strong associations between indicators of socioeconomic status (education, income, occupation) and health. It maintains that people of higher socioeconomic status have greater access to flexible resources such as money, knowledge, prestige, power, and beneficial social connections that they can use to reduce their risks of morbidity and mortality and minimize the consequences of disease once it occurs. However, several key aspects of the theory remain underspecified, compromising its ability to provide truly compelling explanations for socioeconomic health inequalities. In particular, socioeconomic status is an assembly of indicators that do not necessarily cohere in a straightforward way, the flexible resources that disproportionately accrue to higher status people are not clearly defined, and the distinction between socioeconomic status and resources is ambiguous. I attempt to address these definitional issues by infusing fundamental cause theory with features of a well-known theory of socioeconomic stratification in the sociological literature-Pierre Bourdieu's theory of symbolic power.

Classical competing risks

CERN Document Server

Crowder, Martin J

2001-01-01

If something can fail, it can often fail in one of several ways and sometimes in more than one way at a time. There is always some cause of failure, and almost always, more than one possible cause. In one sense, then, survival analysis is a lost cause. The methods of Competing Risks have often been neglected in the survival analysis literature. Written by a leading statistician, Classical Competing Risks thoroughly examines the probability framework and statistical analysis of data of Competing Risks. The author explores both the theory of the subject and the practicalities of fitting the models to data. In a coherent, self-contained, and sequential account, the treatment moves from the bare bones of the Competing Risks setup and the associated likelihood functions through survival analysis using hazard functions. It examines discrete failure times and the difficulties of identifiability, and concludes with an introduction to the counting-process approach and the associated martingale theory.With a dearth of ...

Risk application research on risk warning mechanism in organizational crisis management – taking Vanke Real Estate Co. Ltd., as an example

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Long; Wang, Lihong

2016-01-01

With the changes in domestic and international economic environment, the increasingly dynamic and complex environment has become the pressures and challenges that enterprises have to face. From the perspective of healthy development of companies in long-term running, it’s urgent to build an enterprise risk warning system. This paper takes daily operational risks and crises in Chinese enterprises as the research object, synthetically using the relevant knowledge of risk management theory, early warning management theory, the strategic management theory, the analytic hierarchy process, and fuzzy mathematics to build a daily management risk early warning system for Chinese enterprises. By constructing the system, the enterprises can make dynamic tracking for different stages in business management, so as to realize the risk before crises, take some actions during and after crises.

"Utilizing" signal detection theory.

Science.gov (United States)

Lynn, Spencer K; Barrett, Lisa Feldman

2014-09-01

What do inferring what a person is thinking or feeling, judging a defendant's guilt, and navigating a dimly lit room have in common? They involve perceptual uncertainty (e.g., a scowling face might indicate anger or concentration, for which different responses are appropriate) and behavioral risk (e.g., a cost to making the wrong response). Signal detection theory describes these types of decisions. In this tutorial, we show how incorporating the economic concept of utility allows signal detection theory to serve as a model of optimal decision making, going beyond its common use as an analytic method. This utility approach to signal detection theory clarifies otherwise enigmatic influences of perceptual uncertainty on measures of decision-making performance (accuracy and optimality) and on behavior (an inverse relationship between bias magnitude and sensitivity optimizes utility). A "utilized" signal detection theory offers the possibility of expanding the phenomena that can be understood within a decision-making framework. © The Author(s) 2014.

The theory-based influence of map features on risk beliefs: self-reports of what is seen and understood for maps depicting an environmental health hazard.

Science.gov (United States)

Severtson, Dolores J; Vatovec, Christine

2012-08-01

Theory-based research is needed to understand how maps of environmental health risk information influence risk beliefs and protective behavior. Using theoretical concepts from multiple fields of study including visual cognition, semiotics, health behavior, and learning and memory supports a comprehensive assessment of this influence. The authors report results from 13 cognitive interviews that provide theory-based insights into how visual features influenced what participants saw and the meaning of what they saw as they viewed 3 formats of water test results for private wells (choropleth map, dot map, and a table). The unit of perception, color, proximity to hazards, geographic distribution, and visual salience had substantial influences on what participants saw and their resulting risk beliefs. These influences are explained by theoretical factors that shape what is seen, properties of features that shape cognition (preattentive, symbolic, visual salience), information processing (top-down and bottom-up), and the strength of concrete compared with abstract information. Personal relevance guided top-down attention to proximal and larger hazards that shaped stronger risk beliefs. Meaning was more local for small perceptual units and global for large units. Three aspects of color were important: preattentive "incremental risk" meaning of sequential shading, symbolic safety meaning of stoplight colors, and visual salience that drew attention. The lack of imagery, geographic information, and color diminished interest in table information. Numeracy and prior beliefs influenced comprehension for some participants. Results guided the creation of an integrated conceptual framework for application to future studies. Ethics should guide the selection of map features that support appropriate communication goals.

Mitigating tin whisker risks theory and practice

CERN Document Server

Handwerker, Carol A; Bath, Jasbir

2016-01-01

Discusses the growth mechanisms of tin whiskers and the effective mitigation strategies necessary to reduce whisker growth risks. This book covers key tin whisker topics, ranging from fundamental science to practical mitigation strategies. The text begins with a review of the characteristic properties of local microstructures around whisker and hillock grains to identify why these particular grains and locations become predisposed to forming whiskers and hillocks. The book discusses the basic properties of tin-based alloy finishes and the effects of various alloying elements on whisker formation, with a focus on potential mechanisms for whisker suppression or enhancement for each element. Tin whisker risk mitigation strategies for each tier of the supply chain for high reliability electronic systems are also described.

Testing ‘cultural reproduction theory’ against relative risk aversion theory – some remarks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Munk, Martin David; Jakobsen, Anders

2015-01-01

of the concept of habitus. Our point is that blinding out the important concept of habitus amputates the theory, and that a test built upon this limitation is not a test of Bourdieu’s theory as a whole, but rather a straw man construction ignoring important parts of the theory. This has strong implications when......The aim of this research note is to discuss inherent limitations in certain established, but problematic, conventions for operationalizing and testing Pierre Bourdieu’s theory of cultural reproduction. These conventions entail a selective focus on the concept of capital at the expense...... seeking to test statistically the viability of Bourdieu’s theory, particularly vis-a-vis rational choice alternatives, and especially where these limitations are not adequately reflected in the interpretation of results and in conclusions....

Prospect relativity: how choice options influence decision under risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Stewart, Neil; Chater, Nick; Stott, Henry P; Reimers, Stian

2003-03-01

In many theories of decision under risk (e.g., expected utility theory, rank-dependent utility theory, and prospect theory), the utility of a prospect is independent of other options in the choice set. The experiments presented here show a large effect of the available options, suggesting instead that prospects are valued relative to one another. The judged certainty equivalent for a prospect is strongly influenced by the options available. Similarly, the selection of a preferred prospect is strongly influenced by the prospects available. Alternative theories of decision under risk (e.g., the stochastic difference model, multialternative decision field theory, and range frequency theory), where prospects are valued relative to one another, can provide an account of these context effects.

Risk Measurement of Equity Markets and Private Investor Behaviour

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stanislav Škapa

2013-11-01

Full Text Available Purpose of this article: The aim of this paper is to evaluate and determine risk profile of equities markets and conclude consequency for private investor portfolios. There is summarized broad issue of risk measuremen with a focuse on downside risk measurement principle and giving into context with expected utility theory and loss aversion theory. Methodology/methods: The suitable statistical methods (mainly robust statistical methods have been used for estimation of selected characteristics and ratios. There is used a computer intensive method (a bootstrap method for estimating risk characteristics for equity markets, indicators and ratios. Scientific aim: The main scientific aim is to use a complex of more sophisticated and theoretically advanced statistical techniques and apply them on on the finding of the expected utility theory and the loss aversion theory. Findings: A main finding should be reckon a using of results of loss aversion theory applied into empirical evidence of risk profile of equity markets which led to the finding that more reliable and more suitable evaluation of risk of equity markets is downside risk and Sortino ratio from the perpective of private investor. Conclusion: Using downside risk measurement is revealing as it lays bare the “true” risk of investing in stock markets mainly for risk averse private investors. A bootstrap method with down side risk metric can evaluate risk in more appropriate way, and it is also more suitable if statistical characteristics do not fulfil a normal distribution assumption (mostly because of fat tails or outliers. And lastly in general, investors in emerging market (e.g. Visegrad´s countries are rewarded with higher return, but if things go wrong, the damage can be severe and detrimental to performance.

Underground Economics for Vulnerability Risk

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Allodi, L.

The estimation of vulnerability risk is at the core of any IT security management strategy. Among technical and infrastructural metrics of risk, attacker economics represent an emerging new aspect that several risk assessment methodologies propose to consider (e.g., based on game theory). Yet the

Surplus analysis of Sparre Andersen insurance risk processes

CERN Document Server

Willmot, Gordon E

2017-01-01

This carefully written monograph covers the Sparre Andersen process in an actuarial context using the renewal process as the model for claim counts. A unified reference on Sparre Andersen (renewal risk) processes is included, often missing from existing literature. The authors explore recent results and analyse various risk theoretic quantities associated with the event of ruin, including the time of ruin and the deficit of ruin. Particular attention is given to the explicit identification of defective renewal equation components, which are needed to analyse various risk theoretic quantities and are also relevant in other subject areas of applied probability such as dams and storage processes, as well as queuing theory. Aimed at researchers interested in risk/ruin theory and related areas, this work will also appeal to graduate students in classical and modern risk theory and Gerber-Shiu analysis.

One Idea of Portfolio Risk Control Focusing on States of Correlation

Science.gov (United States)

Nishiyama, Noboru

2004-04-01

In the modern portfolio theory there are 2 major risk parameters that mean and variance. Correlations should be playing important role as well but variance is thought to be most important risk parameter for risk control in the theory. I focused on states of correlation to calculate eigen values as risk control parameter.

Education for Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR: Linking Theory with Practice in Ghana’s Basic Schools

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Priscilla T. Apronti

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Current understanding of disaster risk reduction (DRR concurs that, when provided the right education, children have the potential to reduce their own vulnerability and the vulnerability of others in their community. What, then, comprises the right education for DRR? Research has established the need for disaster education to address the causes and effects, prevention and response, and management and recovery from disaster events. The educational process must include diverse and practical techniques that reinforce disaster knowledge and builds a culture of safety and resilience amongst students. Drawing on syllabus content analysis and field research in two rural communities in semi-arid Northern Ghana, this study explored the presence and nature of DRR within the syllabi of the basic school system. By comparing the result of the content analysis with results from interviews and questionnaires completed by teachers and students, significant gaps were identified between the disaster pedagogy outlined in the syllabi (theory and that which occurs in the classroom (practice. It was realized that while the theory outlines active and innovative techniques for teaching, learning, and evaluating DRR lessons, various challenges hinder the practical application of these techniques in the classroom. The study concludes that a lack of teacher training and professional development, and inadequate teaching and learning materials, generally account for these results. A new and consolidated effort is required from all stakeholders to train teachers and to provide the appropriate learning materials to improve on the current DRR education.

INVENTORY AND RISK MANAGEMENT: DECREASING DELIVERY RISK OF PURCHASERS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Grzegorz MICHALSKI

2008-12-01

Full Text Available The basic financial purpose of an enterprise is maximization of its value. Inventory management should also contribute to realization of this fundamental aim. The enterprise value maximization strategy is executed with a focus on risk and uncertainty. This article presents the consequences for the recipients firm that can result from operating risk that is related to delivery risk generated by the suppliers. The present article offers a method that uses portfolio management theory to choose the suppliers.

Multi-Risk Infants: Predicting Attachment Security from Sociodemographic, Psychosocial, and Health Risk among African-American Preterm Infants

Science.gov (United States)

Candelaria, Margo; Teti, Douglas M.; Black, Maureen M.

2011-01-01

Background: Ecological and transactional theories link child outcomes to accumulated risk. This study hypothesized that cumulative risk was negatively related to attachment, and that maternal sensitivity mediated linkages between risk and attachment. Methods: One hundred and twelve high-risk African-American premature infant-mother dyads…

Gifted Students in Transition: A Grounded Theory Study

Science.gov (United States)

Meadows, Jodi J.

2017-01-01

Gifted students in transition to college may be at risk for underachievement, difficult transition, or even attrition. Giftedness by itself is not always sufficient for academic success in college. The purpose of this grounded theory study was to construct a theory regarding the process of transition to college for high-achieving gifted high…

Risk-informed regulation: handling uncertainty for a rational management of safety

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zio, Enrico

2008-01-01

A risk-informed regulatory approach implies that risk insights be used as supplement of deterministic information for safety decision-making purposes. In this view, the use of risk assessment techniques is expected to lead to improved safety and a more rational allocation of the limited resources available. On the other hand, it is recognized that uncertainties affect both the deterministic safety analyses and the risk assessments. In order for the risk-informed decision making process to be effective, the adequate representation and treatment of such uncertainties is mandatory. In this paper, the risk-informed regulatory framework is considered under the focus of the uncertainty issue. Traditionally, probability theory has provided the language and mathematics for the representation and treatment of uncertainty. More recently, other mathematical structures have been introduced. In particular, the Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence is here illustrated as a generalized framework encompassing probability theory and possibility theory. The special case of probability theory is only addressed as term of comparison, given that it is a well known subject. On the other hand, the special case of possibility theory is amply illustrated. An example of the combination of probability and possibility for treating the uncertainty in the parameters of an event tree is illustrated

Discussion on the safety production risk managmeent of uranium mines

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu Bin; Luo Yun; Hu Penghua; Zhu Disi

2009-01-01

Based on the modern safety risk management theories and according to the actual situation, risk management for work safety in uranium mines is discussed from three aspects: risk identification,risk analysis and evaluation, and risk control. Referring to the '4M(Men,Machine,Medium,Management) factors' and 'Three types of hazards' theory, the classification of uranium mine accidents and risk factors are analyzed. In addition, the types and evaluation indexes of major risks of uranium mines as well as the 'spot, line, area' model of risk identification and analysis and the 'hierarchical' risk control mechanism are also studied. (authors)

The neuronal substrate of risky choice: an insight into the contributions of neuroimaging to the understanding of theories on decision making under risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Vorhold, Verena

2008-04-01

This chapter provides an overview of studies in the field of neuroscience that investigate some of the processes and concepts of risk perception, risky choice, and decision making under risk. First, early studies in the field of neuroscience addressing the diminished decision-making abilities in lesion patients are presented. A classical task in this research field is described along with its neural implications. After this, the underlying model, its hypotheses, and neuronal implications are discussed. Different aspects within risky decision making, such as the influence of memory, inhibition, motivation, and personality, on risky choice and the respective underlying neuronal substrate are described. After this, studies of risky decision making in healthy subjects are reviewed. A selection of studies shows that theories focusing on cognitive aspects only have to be enriched in order to allow for additional aspects within risky decision making (e.g., emotion). Next, the classical economic approaches and the development of theories incorporating further aspects within economical decision making and the underlying neuronal substrate will be presented. Finally, research in the field of neuroeconomics, focusing on the role of social decision making and evaluative judgment within risky decision making, is reviewed.

Prospect theory: A parametric analysis of functional forms in Brazil

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Robert Eugene Lobel

2017-10-01

Full Text Available This study aims to analyze risk preferences in Brazil based on prospect theory by estimating the risk aversion parameter of the expected utility theory (EUT for a select sample, in addition to the value and probability function parameter, assuming various functional forms, and a newly proposed value function, the modified log. This is the first such study in Brazil, and the parameter results are slightly different from studies in other countries, indicating that subjects are more risk averse and exhibit a smaller loss aversion. Probability distortion is the only common factor. As expected, the study finds that behavioral models are superior to EUT, and models based on prospect theory, the TK and Prelec weighting function, and the value power function show superior performance to others. Finally, the modified log function proposed in the study fits the data well, and can thus be used for future studies in Brazil.

Community resilience and decision theory challenges for catastrophic events.

Science.gov (United States)

Cox, Louis Anthony

2012-11-01

Extreme and catastrophic events pose challenges for normative models of risk management decision making. They invite development of new methods and principles to complement existing normative decision and risk analysis. Because such events are rare, it is difficult to learn about them from experience. They can prompt both too little concern before the fact, and too much after. Emotionally charged and vivid outcomes promote probability neglect and distort risk perceptions. Aversion to acting on uncertain probabilities saps precautionary action; moral hazard distorts incentives to take care; imperfect learning and social adaptation (e.g., herd-following, group-think) complicate forecasting and coordination of individual behaviors and undermine prediction, preparation, and insurance of catastrophic events. Such difficulties raise substantial challenges for normative decision theories prescribing how catastrophe risks should be managed. This article summarizes challenges for catastrophic hazards with uncertain or unpredictable frequencies and severities, hard-to-envision and incompletely described decision alternatives and consequences, and individual responses that influence each other. Conceptual models and examples clarify where and why new methods are needed to complement traditional normative decision theories for individuals and groups. For example, prospective and retrospective preferences for risk management alternatives may conflict; procedures for combining individual beliefs or preferences can produce collective decisions that no one favors; and individual choices or behaviors in preparing for possible disasters may have no equilibrium. Recent ideas for building "disaster-resilient" communities can complement traditional normative decision theories, helping to meet the practical need for better ways to manage risks of extreme and catastrophic events. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

The Risk-as-feelings hypothesis in a Theory-of-planned-behaviour perspective

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Therese Kobbeltvedt

2009-12-01

Full Text Available The Theory of Planned Behaviour (TpB: Ajzen, 1985; 1991 is based on a utility framework, and the Risk-as-Feelings hypothesis (RaF: Loewenstein, Weber, Hsee, and Welch, 2001 is a feelings-based behavioural model. The TpB and RaF are first compared and contrasted. Two empirical studies investigated the predictive power of consequence-based vs. affect-based evaluative judgements for behavioural intentions: Study 1 (extit{n} = 94 applied a regression model to examine the predictive value of a subset of shared variables, unique TpB variables, and unique RaF variables for intentions to have unsafe sex. Study 2 (extit{n} = 357 experimentally examined whether intentions are driven by consequences or feelings, in two decision vignettes with opposite qualities: A positive hedonic experience with potential negative consequences (unsafe sex vs. a negative hedonic experience with potential positive consequences (back surgery. The results supported the TpB by emphasising the role of outcome-expectations in the construction of intentions, and the RaF by showing the importance of affective subcomponents in attitudes. % Behavioural % decision models need to capture the general, the individual, and the % dynamic. The inclusion of contextual and individual trends may % facilitate behavioural predictions. % unclear

The Experiences of Patients´ Close Relatives with Risk Factors of Gastric Cancer and Health-Therapeutic Personnel from the Determinants of Nutritional Behaviors: A Theory-based Qualitative Content Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

MH Baghiani Moghadam

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Introduction: Cancers are one of the most common causes of death at age groups above 50 years old that Life style modification has an important role in prevention of them. Diets are the most important factor at the risk of gastric cancer. The aim of present study was explanation of the Experiences of Patients´ Close Relatives with Risk Factors of Gastric Cancer and Health-Therapeutic Personnel from the Determinants of Nutritional Behaviors based on protection motivation theory. Methods: The present qualitative study was done with content analysis method application at Babol health-therapeutic centers covered by Babol University of Medical Sciences for eight months in 2013. semi-structure d face to face interview were used to collect the data with 9 participants from Patients´ Close Relatives with Risk Factors of Gastric Cancer and 19 participants from Health-Therapeutic Personnel. Data analysis and collection were simultaneously done by using the method of theory-based (directed or conductive content analysis. Results:From data analysis 487initial codes and after integration,186 main codes were extracted .This codes were pasted at 2 pre-determined categories and 7 pre-determined sub-categories related to protection motivation theory(perceived sensitivity, perceived severity, reward, fear, perceived response-efficacy, self-efficacy and perceived cost-benefit. The most main perceived problem, was the low level of awareness, attitude and practice at people about nutritional risk factors related to gastric cancer and a result the low level of disease fear. Conclusion: The findings of present study are the indicator of effective determinants on nutritional behaviors that can help to health-therapeutic policy –makers to provide and approve the most appropriate solutions and strategies with aim of changing these determinants in order to reduce nutritional risk factors related to gastric cancer.

Beyond the ‘Risk Society’?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rasborg, Klaus

2006-01-01

of the theories of Marx, Weber and Durkheim. At the same time, however, Beck repudiates the idea that this shift should lead to a relativistic, postmodern cultural and social condition where all binding standards erode. The article calls attention to some basic problems and inner contradictions in Beck’s theory...... of the risk society: The lack of clarification of the epistemological and ontological status of risk, the questionable view of the relation between knowledge and unawareness in relation to risks, and the rather vague notions of ‘social rationality’ and ‘discursive modernization.’ A main thread in the critique...... on the problem of risk. It is suggested that risk could be seen as relating to the self-observation of modern society (Luhmann), to modern forms of governmentality (Dean), or to the general structures of meaning that regulate the self-understanding of a society (Alexander and Smith). A common characteristic...

Agricultural risk management

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lund, Mogens; Oksen, Arne; Larsen, Torben U.

2005-01-01

A new model for risk management in agriculture is described in the paper. The risk model is constructed as a context dependent process, which includes four main phases. The model is aimed at agricultural advisors, who wish to facilitate and disseminate risk management to farmers. It is developed...... and tested by an action research approach in an attempt to make risk management more applicable on family farms. Our obtained experiences indicate that farmers don’t apply probabilistic thinking and other concepts according to formal decision theory....

Perceived association between diagnostic and non-diagnostic cues of women's sexual interest: General Recognition Theory predictors of risk for sexual coercion.

Science.gov (United States)

Farris, Coreen; Viken, Richard J; Treat, Teresa A

2010-01-01

Young men's errors in sexual perception have been linked to sexual coercion. The current investigation sought to explicate the perceptual and decisional sources of these social perception errors, as well as their link to risk for sexual violence. General Recognition Theory (GRT; [Ashby, F. G., & Townsend, J. T. (1986). Varieties of perceptual independence. Psychological Review, 93, 154-179]) was used to estimate participants' ability to discriminate between affective cues and clothing style cues and to measure illusory correlations between men's perception of women's clothing style and sexual interest. High-risk men were less sensitive to the distinction between women's friendly and sexual interest cues relative to other men. In addition, they were more likely to perceive an illusory correlation between women's diagnostic sexual interest cues (e.g., facial affect) and non-diagnostic cues (e.g., provocative clothing), which increases the probability that high-risk men will misperceive friendly women as intending to communicate sexual interest. The results provide information about the degree of risk conferred by individual differences in perceptual processing of women's interest cues, and also illustrate how translational scientists might adapt GRT to examine research questions about individual differences in social perception.

Life Span and Resiliency Theory: A Critical Review

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alexa Smith-Osborne

2007-05-01

Full Text Available Theories of life span development describe human growth and change over the life cycle (Robbins, Chatterjee, & Canda, 2006. Major types of developmental theories include biological, psychodynamic, behavioral, and social learning, cognitive, moral, and spiritual, and those influenced by systems, empowerment, and conflict theory. Life span development theories commonly focus on ontogenesis and sequential mastery of skills, tasks, and abilities. Social work scholars have pointed out that a limitation of life span and other developmental theory is lack of attention to resilience (Greene, 2007; Robbins et al., 1998. The concept of resilience was developed to “describe relative resistance to psychosocial risk experiences” (Rutter, 1999b, p. 119. Longitudinal studies focused on typical and atypical child development informed theory formulation in developmental psychopathology (Garmezy & Rutter, 1983; Luthar, Cichetti,& Becker, 2000 and in an evolving resilience model (Richardson, 2002; Werner & Smith, 1992. Research on resilience has found a positive relationship between a number of individual traits and contextual variables and resistance to a variety of risk factors among children and adolescents. More recently, resilience research has examined the operation of these same factors in the young adult, middle-age, and elder life stages. This article examines the historical and conceptual progression of the two developmental theories—life span and resiliency—and discusses their application to social work practice and education in human behavior in the social environment.

Priorities and prospect theory.

Science.gov (United States)

Happich, M; Mazurek, B

2002-01-01

Whose preferences are to be used for cost-effectiveness analysis? It has been recommended that community preferences for health states are the most appropriate ones for use in a reference case analysis. However, critics maintain that persons are not able properly to judge a health state if they have not experienced the condition themselves. This problem is analyzed here in the framework of Prospect Theory. It can be argued that the differing reference points of patients and the general public are responsible for deviating results. In addition, we argue that risk attitudes with respect to health-related quality of life are an indicator of reference points. If patients and the general public refer to the same reference point, i.e., they have the same risk attitude, the hypothesis is that deviations no longer significantly differ. Evaluations of the health condition of tinnitus by 210 patients and 210 unaffected persons were compared. The Time Tradeoff and Standard Gamble methods were applied to elicit preferences. Risk attitude was measured with the question of whether participants would undergo a treatment that could either improve or worsen their health condition, both with an equal chance (five possible answers between "in no case" and "in any case"). Affected persons indicated significantly higher values for tinnitus-related quality of life according to the Standard Gamble method. The difference between Time Tradeoff values was less dramatic but still significant. In addition, nonaffected persons are more risk-averse than affected persons. However, differences in evaluations are not significant considering single risk groups (e.g., those who answered "in no case"). Prospect Theory is a reasonable framework for considering the question of whose preferences count. If this result can be generalized for other diseases as well, it allows the mathematical combination of "objective" evaluations by the general public with the illness experience of patients. These

How fear of falling can increase fall-risk in older adults: applying psychological theory to practical observations.

Science.gov (United States)

Young, William R; Mark Williams, A

2015-01-01

It is widely reported that fear of falling (FOF) has a profound and largely detrimental effect on balance performance in older adults. However, the mechanisms by which FOF influence postural stability are poorly understood. In the current article, we use psychological theory to explain FOF-related changes to postural control. First, we review literature describing associations between FOF and the 'stiffening' strategies observed during control of posture, including observations of eye and head movements. Second, we present a framework illustrating the interactions between increased age, FOF, and altered attentional processes, which in turn influence balance performance and fall-risk. Psychological theory predicts that anxiety can cause attentional bias for threatening and task-irrelevant stimuli and compromise the efficiency of working memory resources. We argue that while the adoption of stiffening strategies is likely to be beneficial in avoiding a loss of balance during simple postural tasks, it will ultimately compromise performance in dynamic and highly demanding functional tasks. The adoption of stiffening strategies leads to inadequate acquisition of the sensory information necessary to plan and execute dynamic and interactive movements. We conclude with some suggestions for future research. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Risk in International Business

OpenAIRE

Canavan, Deirdre; Sharkey Scott, Pamela

2012-01-01

Risk in international business can stress risk adverse behaviour to counteract foreign market uncertainty or individual entrepreneurial risk taking behaviour dependent on the characteristics of both the business sector and the individual. International business theory would suggest that the perception of risk may differ in situations including where new market entry is incremental, is taken in larger or earlier stages, or indeed whether it may be experienced in a continually fluctuating manne...

Prospect theory and the decision to move or stay.

Science.gov (United States)

Clark, William A V; Lisowski, William

2017-09-05

Migration has always involved stress and risk. More risk-averse households are less likely to move, while less risk-averse households will seek out opportunities and migrate. We investigate how the theoretical contributions of prospect theory, and specifically the endowment effect, can provide new understanding about decisions whether to migrate or not. We test the hypothesis that risk aversion extends the length of stay in the dwelling and, by extension, in the local labor and housing markets. How long people remain in place is a function, we hypothesize, of their independently self-assessed propensity to take risks, after controlling for a range of demographic and socioeconomic characteristics. We use the theoretical insights of prospect theory and the endowment effect (the notion of the "use value" differing from the "exchange value") to explain the likelihood of staying after controlling for life-course events. The results confirm the explanatory power of self-assessed risk in the decision to migrate or stay and, equally important, confirm the role of the endowment effect.

Towards Validating Risk Indicators Based on Measurement Theory (Extended version)

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Morali, A.; Wieringa, Roelf J.

Due to the lack of quantitative information and for cost-efficiency, most risk assessment methods use partially ordered values (e.g. high, medium, low) as risk indicators. In practice it is common to validate risk indicators by asking stakeholders whether they make sense. This way of validation is

Rational Choice Theory and Addiction Behaviour

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Miloš Krstić

2014-12-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to explore the construct of student satisfaction and analyze its relationship with student loyalty in the context of state and private universities. The rational choice theory assumes that, when deciding whether to consume some goods or not, consumers use analysis in order to estimate the values of individual preference indicators. From this point of view, there are risk and time preferences. The former show aversion to a risk and are expressed through the risk aversion coefficient, while the latter measure the degree of preference for present satisfaction in relation to the same satisfaction in the future. The degree of preference for present satisfaction regarding the same satisfaction in the future is expressed by the time preference rate. Smokers with a low time preference rate and high risk aversion coefficient level can be expected to be successful in cessation. The aim of this paper is to study smokers from the perspective of rational choice theory, in order to detect factors influencing their behavior. The study (investigation found that the significant factors for smokers’ behavior are: gender, age, education, risk aversion coefficient, and the time preference rate. Analysis of smokers’ behavior, with appropriate limits and qualifications, is a well-developed and highly effective tool for exploring and interpreting reality.

Conformal prediction for reliable machine learning theory, adaptations and applications

CERN Document Server

Balasubramanian, Vineeth; Vovk, Vladimir

2014-01-01

The conformal predictions framework is a recent development in machine learning that can associate a reliable measure of confidence with a prediction in any real-world pattern recognition application, including risk-sensitive applications such as medical diagnosis, face recognition, and financial risk prediction. Conformal Predictions for Reliable Machine Learning: Theory, Adaptations and Applications captures the basic theory of the framework, demonstrates how to apply it to real-world problems, and presents several adaptations, including active learning, change detection, and anomaly detecti

Post-modern portfolio theory supports diversification in an investment portfolio to measure investment's performance

OpenAIRE

Rasiah, Devinaga

2012-01-01

This study looks at the Post-Modern Portfolio Theory that maintains greater diversification in an investment portfolio by using the alpha and the beta coefficient to measure investment performance. Post-Modern Portfolio Theory appreciates that investment risk should be tied to each investor's goals and the outcome of this goal did not symbolize economic of the financial risk. Post-Modern Portfolio Theory's downside measure generated a noticeable distinction between downside and upside volatil...

Social Capital Theory: Implications for Women's Networking and Learning

Science.gov (United States)

Alfred, Mary V.

2009-01-01

This chapter describes social capital theory as a framework for exploring women's networking and social capital resources. It presents the foundational assumptions of the theory, the benefits and risks of social capital engagement, a feminist critique of social capital, and the role of social capital in adult learning.

Neural correlates of value, risk, and risk aversion contributing to decision making under risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Christopoulos, George I; Tobler, Philippe N; Bossaerts, Peter; Dolan, Raymond J; Schultz, Wolfram

2009-10-07

Decision making under risk is central to human behavior. Economic decision theory suggests that value, risk, and risk aversion influence choice behavior. Although previous studies identified neural correlates of decision parameters, the contribution of these correlates to actual choices is unknown. In two different experiments, participants chose between risky and safe options. We identified discrete blood oxygen level-dependent (BOLD) correlates of value and risk in the ventral striatum and anterior cingulate, respectively. Notably, increasing inferior frontal gyrus activity to low risk and safe options correlated with higher risk aversion. Importantly, the combination of these BOLD responses effectively decoded the behavioral choice. Striatal value and cingulate risk responses increased the probability of a risky choice, whereas inferior frontal gyrus responses showed the inverse relationship. These findings suggest that the BOLD correlates of decision factors are appropriate for an ideal observer to detect behavioral choices. More generally, these biological data contribute to the validity of the theoretical decision parameters for actual decisions under risk.

Decision-making under risk. An overview of some alternative utility theories

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pauwels, N.; Van Woensel, T.

1998-09-01

Decision-makers often have to take decisions with unknown consequences that depend on various events which on their turn can take place a certain chance. Under the given circumstances, the traditional decision criterion is based on the maximisation of the expected benefits. Experimental studies have however revealed important inconsistencies between decisions taken on the basis of this decision criterion on the one hand and the observed decisions on the other hand. The report gives an overview of a number of alternative theories extending or adapting the traditional theory in view of avoiding the observed inconsistencies

Institutional Theory as a Framework for Practitioners of Social Entrepreneurship

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Agrawal, Anirudh; Hockerts, Kai

2013-01-01

The chapter proposes institutional theory as a framework for reflecting on social entrepreneurship. We advocate institutional theory as a tool for practitioners to reflect upon the legitimacy, survivability and scalability of social enterprises because institutional theory frameworks can reduce...... risks associated with emerging fields such as social entrepreneurship. In order to illustrate our claim, we present four cases of social entrepreneurship and reflect on them through different institutional theory frameworks. At the end of the chapter, we propose a future agenda for practitioners...... interested in social entrepreneurship from an institutional theory perspective....

Tests of Theories of Crime in Female Prisoners.

Science.gov (United States)

Lindberg, Marc A; Fugett, April; Adkins, Ashtin; Cook, Kelsey

2017-02-01

Several general theories of crime were tested with path models on 293 female prisoners in a U.S. State prison. The theories tested included Social Bond and Control, Thrill/Risk Seeking, and a new attachment-based Developmental Dynamic Systems model. A large battery of different instruments ranging from measures of risk taking, to a crime addiction scale, to Childhood Adverse Events, to attachments and clinical issues were used. The older general theories of crime did not hold up well under the rigor of path modeling. The new dynamic systems model was supported that incorporated adverse childhood events leading to (a) peer crime, (b) crime addiction, and (c) a measure derived from the Attachment and Clinical Issues Questionnaire (ACIQ) that takes individual differences in attachments and clinical issues into account. The results were discussed in terms of new approaches to Research Defined Criteria of Diagnosis (RDoC) and new approaches to intervention.

Control of System with Defined Risk Level

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pavol Tomasov

2002-01-01

Full Text Available In the following paper the basic requirements for system control with defined risk level is presented. The paper should be an introduction to describe of theoretical apparatus, which was created during some years of research work in the Department of information and safety systems in this area. It a modification or creation of new parts of Information theory, System theory, and Control theory means. This parts are necessary for the analysis and synthesis tasks in the systems where dominant attribute of control is defined risk level. The basic problem is the creation of protect mechanism again the threats from inside and from controlled system environs. For each risk reduction mechanism is needed some redundancy which should be into control algorithm to put by exactly determined way.

Bank governance, regulation, and risk taking

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Laeven, L.; Levine, R.

2009-01-01

This paper conducts the first empirical assessment of theories concerning risk taking by banks, their ownership structures, and national bank regulations. We focus on conflicts between bank managers and owners over risk, and we show that bank risk taking varies positively with the comparative power

“UTILIZING” SIGNAL DETECTION THEORY

Science.gov (United States)

Lynn, Spencer K.; Barrett, Lisa Feldman

2014-01-01

What do inferring what a person is thinking or feeling, deciding to report a symptom to your doctor, judging a defendant’s guilt, and navigating a dimly lit room have in common? They involve perceptual uncertainty (e.g., a scowling face might indicate anger or concentration, which engender different appropriate responses), and behavioral risk (e.g., a cost to making the wrong response). Signal detection theory describes these types of decisions. In this tutorial we show how, by incorporating the economic concept of utility, signal detection theory serves as a model of optimal decision making, beyond its common use as an analytic method. This utility approach to signal detection theory highlights potentially enigmatic influences of perceptual uncertainty on measures of decision-making performance (accuracy and optimality) and on behavior (a functional relationship between bias and sensitivity). A “utilized” signal detection theory offers the possibility of expanding the phenomena that can be understood within a decision-making framework. PMID:25097061

Risks in socio-cultural perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kwee, S.L.

1981-01-01

An exposition is presented of the principles of a socio-cultural risk theory based on the statement 'Risk is structured uncertainty'. It deals with hazards of human behaviour, risk as a challenge, hazards in nature and in culture, in science and enterprise, to close with a few words on today's crisis and uncertainty. (Auth.)

Thinking through cancer risk: characterizing smokers' process of risk determination.

Science.gov (United States)

Hay, Jennifer; Shuk, Elyse; Cruz, Gustavo; Ostroff, Jamie

2005-10-01

The perception of cancer risk motivates cancer risk reduction behaviors. However, common measurement strategies for cancer risk perceptions, which involve numerical likelihood estimates, do not adequately capture individuals' thoughts and feelings about cancer risk. To guide the development of novel measurement strategies, the authors used semistructured interviews to examine the thought processes used by smokers (N = 15) as they considered their cancer risk. They used grounded theory to guide systematic data coding and develop a heuristic model describing smokers' risk perception process that includes a cognitive, primarily rational process whereby salient personal risk factors for cancer are considered and combined, and an affective/attitudinal process, which shifts risk perceptions either up or down. The model provides a tentative explanation concerning how people hold cancer risk perceptions that diverge from rational assessment of their risks and will be useful in guiding the development of non-numerical measurements strategies for cancer risk perceptions.

Risk projection and the fertility of rural families.

Science.gov (United States)

Song, R

1991-01-01

The author comments on the theories and empirical evidence which aid in understanding the determinants of the reproductive behavior of farmers in China. The issues are defined, and discussion expands on the needs for a specific number of children in rural versus urban areas, M. Cain's risk insurance hypothesis, the importance of modes of production for the farm family, the farmer's security versus risks, and the balance between risk projection and the maximization of interest. The significance of risk projection is presented as are the implications for policy making. Neither theory of farmer's reproductive behavior, 1) the economic cost and benefit theory or 2) the need for labor theory is considered suitable. The idea that benefits exceed the costs of rearing children cannot justify the repeated cycle of poverty among farmers with many children. The Hubei Province, Danjiankou City, study which estimates rearing costs of 3360 yuan/child benefits of 305 yuan/year to the parents in old age is considered incorrect. The second theory agrees that children are needed for production but recognized surplus labor and does not account for the fact that the more children, the poorer the family. Micro demographic theories identify factors affecting demographic behavior, the extent to which factors affect fertility, and the interrelatedness of factors. The rural family feels jeopardized with one child, and the lowest tolerable number of children is 2-3 in rural areas. Manual labor is the basis of the traditional peasant economy. In this economy, loss of income is a threat whether due to crop failure, weather changes, or market changes. Payment occurs at the end of the year only. Child health is a risk due to poor nutrition and poor health facilities. Following a one-child policy might jeopardize perpetuation of the family line and provision for parents by sons. Urban risks are different. Rural families limit risk by keeping material resources, enlarging and strengthening the

Risk perception versus seismic risk: An introduction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cubeddu, Francesca

2015-01-01

A seismic event generally has consequences on the social relationships, economy and culture of the impacted territory. As Mary Douglas quotes, a change into the social perception of risk as consequence of an earthquake may have effects on the lifestyle of the local community. The above mentioned statement is the starting point of this article. illustrating the difference between peril and risk is the second point. According to the Aristotelian theory of categories, risk can be considered as a human characteristic depending on social and cultural factors. Risk is here intended as a social category and cannot be de facto reported as a statistical or stochastic function based on a mathematical formula, as long assumed in the past. This approach, then, requires a deep revision. In this sense, and following the concept of risk perception, seismic risk is analysed in this article in terms of impacts, precautionary measures, risk assessment and management. Knowledge of this topic cannot be intended as a simple philosophical exercise, since right on awareness depend risk reduction, humans and goods too [it

Risk Appetite

OpenAIRE

Berlinger, Edina; Váradi, Kata

2015-01-01

Our article firstly examines to what extent empirical research confirms the model of decision making based on a stable utility function. To this end, we have summarised the fundamental theoretical correlations relating to risk appetite, then went on to present the main results of behavioural research, with special focus on prospect theory, the correlations between socio-demographic and cognitive characteristics and risk propensity, as well as other influencing physical, mental and psychologic...

Risk perception as a driver for risk management policies

Science.gov (United States)

Carmona, María; Mañez, María

2016-04-01

Risk is generally defined as the "combination of the probability of the occurrence of an event and its negative consequences" ( UNISDR, 2009). However, the perception of a risk differs among cultures regarding different features such as the context,causes, benefits or damage. Risk perception is the subjective valuation of the probability of an event happening and how concerned individuals or groups are with the consequences (Sjöberg, 2004). Our study is based on an existing framework for risk perception (Rehn and Rohrmann, 2000). We analyse the characteristics of the risk perception regarding extreme events (e.g.droughts) and how the perception of the group drives the action to manage the risk. We do this to achieve an overview of the conditions that let stakeholders join each other to improve risk management especially when governments are not reacting properly. For our research, attention is paid on risk perception of Multi-Sector Partnerships not taking into account the individual level of risk perception. We focus on those factors that make risk management effective and increase resilience. Multi-Sector Partnerships, considered as significant governance structures for risk management, might contribute to reduce vulnerability in prone areas to natural hazards and disasters. The Multi-Sector Partnerships used for our research are existing partnerships identified in the cases studies of the European project ENHANCE. We implement a survey to analyse the perception of risk in the case studies. That survey is based on the Cultural Theory (Douglas and Wildavsky, 1982)and the Protection Motivation Theory (Rogers, 1975). We analyse the results using the Qualitative-Comparative Analysis proposed by Ragin in 1987. The results show the main characteristics of a risk culture that are beneficial to manage a risk. Those characteristics are shaped by the perception of risk of the people involved in the partnership, which in turn shapes their risk management. Nevertheless, we

The erroneous signals of detection theory.

Science.gov (United States)

Trimmer, Pete C; Ehlman, Sean M; McNamara, John M; Sih, Andrew

2017-10-25

Signal detection theory has influenced the behavioural sciences for over 50 years. The theory provides a simple equation that indicates numerous 'intuitive' results; e.g. prey should be more prone to take evasive action (in response to an ambiguous cue) if predators are more common. Here, we use analytical and computational models to show that, in numerous biological scenarios, the standard results of signal detection theory do not apply; more predators can result in prey being less responsive to such cues. The standard results need not apply when the probability of danger pertains not just to the present, but also to future decisions. We identify how responses to risk should depend on background mortality and autocorrelation, and that predictions in relation to animal welfare can also be reversed from the standard theory. © 2017 The Author(s).

An empirical analysis of the risk of crude oil imports in China using improved portfolio approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wu, Gang; Wei, Yi-Ming; Fan, Ying; Liu, Lan-Cui

2007-01-01

This paper quantifies the diversification index of China's crude oil imports during the period 1996-2004, and explores the relationship between the monthly prices and Brent crude oil cash prices. Accordingly, we calculate the systematic and specific risks using portfolio theory of China's crude oil import over the period 1996-2004. Because China's crude oil import increased rapidly since 1996, we improve upon the traditional portfolio theory and develop a risk index model of portfolio theory for crude oil imports in order to explore objectively the changes in China's crude oil import risks. The results show that China's crude oil import risk is affected extensively by the fluctuation of international oil prices. So the traditional portfolio theory is insufficient to measure China's crude oil import risk. The improved portfolio theory risks index model reflects the effect of international oil prices, diversification, imports, and geopolitics factors etc., on crude oil import risk, and changes in crude oil import risk. Therefore, the risk index model of portfolio theory provides greater theoretical and methodological robustness as an indicator of China's crude oil import security than that offered from the application of traditional measures of dependence. (author)

Scripts, animal health and biosecurity : The moral accountability of farmers' talk about animal health risks

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Enticott, Gareth; Vanclay, Frank

2011-01-01

This paper explores the contribution of script theory to understandings of animal health risks. Script theory has long played an important role in studies of health and risk, yet the application of script theories is often vague and confused. Theories from different ontological perspectives are

Resolving inconsistencies in utility measurement under risk: Tests of generalizations of expected utility

OpenAIRE

Han Bleichrodt; José María Abellán-Perpiñan; JoséLuis Pinto; Ildefonso Méndez-Martínez

2005-01-01

This paper explores inconsistencies that occur in utility measurement under risk when expected utility theory is assumed and the contribution that prospect theory and some other generalizations of expected utility can make to the resolution of these inconsistencies. We used five methods to measure utilities under risk and found clear violations of expected utility. Of the theories studied, prospect theory was the most consistent with our data. The main improvement of prospect theory over expe...

RECENT THEORIES OF THE FIRM: A CRITICAL APPROACH

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pacala Anca

2012-07-01

Full Text Available Besides the classical theories of the firms as complete or incomplete contract theories, in the last decades there were developed some new theories bringing new perspectives and approaches. Among these new perspectives we are presenting in this paper the evolutionary theory of the firm, the importance of resources and knowledge, and game theory. According to evolutionary theory the most important element for a firm is the company itself and its specific assets (physical and human. Evolutionist theories, in their diversity, are interested in issues such as the effects of changes in the long run within the firms, in terms of products, processes, decisions, analysis of the determinants of success. Resource and knowledge -based theories try to find a common point between transactions and organizational management analysis, focusing on development issues within companies, the importance of business strategy and achieving competitive advantages. Finally, cooperative game theory sees the firm as a coalition of various parts that compose it, emphasizing the importance of cooperative relations between employees and shareholders, risk sharing and effective collective skills, knowledge and funds using.

Young Children’s Risk-Taking: Mothers’ Authoritarian Parenting Predicts Risk-Taking by Daughters but Not Sons

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Erin E. Wood

2017-01-01

Full Text Available We investigated how mothers’ parenting behaviors and personal characteristics were related to risk-taking by young children. We tested contrasting predictions from evolutionary and social role theories with the former predicting higher risk-taking by boys compared to girls and the latter predicting that mothers would influence children’s gender role development with risk-taking occurring more in children parented with higher levels of harshness (i.e., authoritarian parenting style. In our study, mothers reported their own gender roles and parenting styles as well as their children’s risk-taking and activities related to gender roles. The results were only partially consistent with the two theories, as the amount of risk-taking by sons and daughters did not differ significantly and risk-taking by daughters, but not sons, was positively related to mothers’ use of the authoritarian parenting style and the girls’ engagement in masculine activities. Risk-taking by sons was not predicted by any combination of mother-related variables. Overall, mothers who were higher in femininity used more authoritative and less authoritarian parenting styles. Theoretical implications as well as implications for predicting and reducing children’s risk-taking are discussed.

A Bayesian framework for risk perception

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Erp, H.R.N.

2017-01-01

We present here a Bayesian framework of risk perception. This framework encompasses plausibility judgments, decision making, and question asking. Plausibility judgments are modeled by way of Bayesian probability theory, decision making is modeled by way of a Bayesian decision theory, and relevancy

Risk of Telemedicine Infeasibility: An Evidential Reasoning Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sofienne Mansouri

2017-10-01

Full Text Available The viability of a telemedicine system is the strength of its business continuity. Business continuity can only stand if the telemedicine system remains continuously feasible. This article studies telemedicine risk in terms of its feasibility on all its five components: economical, technical, social, operational, and legal/ethical. Any deficiencies in one or more of the feasibility components will affect the system business continuity risk and can lead to infeasibility and possible dissolution. The telemedicine computing environment is full of uncertainties and ambiguities and it just involves too much background knowledge that Bayesian theory cannot accommodate. Decision theory however offers a basic evidence-based multi-criteria decision mechanism that can tackle those decision problems treating both quantitative and qualitative criteria under various uncertainties including ignorance and randomness. We propose an evidential reasoning model to assess a telemedicine business continuity risk based on infeasibility. This business continuity risk is modelled using Dempster and Shafer Theory as the plausibility of infeasibility of the telemedicine system. A numerical example is provided to demonstrate the working of the proposed risk assessment model.

Modelling condom use: Does the theory of planned behaviour explain condom use in a low risk, community sample?

Science.gov (United States)

Thomas, Joanna; Shiels, Chris; Gabbay, Mark B

2014-01-01

To date, most condom research has focused on young or high-risk groups, with little evidence about influences on condom use amongst lower-risk community samples. These groups are not risk free and may still wish to negotiate safer sex; yet the considerations involved could be different from those in higher-risk groups. Our research addresses this gap: We report a cross-sectional questionnaire study enquiring about recent condom use and future use intentions in community settings. Our sample (n = 311) purposively included couples in established relationships, known to be condom users. Items included demographics, sexual history and social-cognitive variables taken from the theory of planned behaviour. The strongest association with condom use/use intentions amongst our respondents was sexual partner's perceived willingness to use them. This applied across both univariate and multivariate analyses. Whilst most social-cognitive variables (attitudes; self-efficacy and peer social norms) were significant in univariate analyses, this was not supported in multivariate regression. Of the social-cognitive variables, only "condom-related attitudes" were retained in the model explaining recent condom use, whilst none of them entered the model explaining future use intentions. Further analysis showed that attitudes concerning pleasure, identity stigma and condom effectiveness were most salient for this cohort. Our results suggest that, in community samples, the decision to use a condom involves different considerations from those highlighted in previous research. Explanatory models for established couples should embrace interpersonal perspectives, emphasising couple-factors rather than individual beliefs. Messages to this cohort could usefully focus on negotiation skills, condom advantages (other than disease prevention) and reducing the stigma associated with use.

Integrating LCA and Risk Assessment for Decision Support

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dong, Yan; Miraglia, Simona; Manzo, Stefano

The study aims at developing a methodology using decision analysis theory and tools to find the optimal policy (or design) of the studied system, to ensure both sustainability and meanwhile manage risks.......The study aims at developing a methodology using decision analysis theory and tools to find the optimal policy (or design) of the studied system, to ensure both sustainability and meanwhile manage risks....

Farm decision making under risk and uncertainty.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Backus, G.B.C.; Eidman, V.R.; Dijkhuizen, A.A.

1997-01-01

Relevant portions of the risk literature are reviewed, relating them to observed behaviour in farm decision-making. Relevant topics for applied agricultural risk research are proposed. The concept of decision making under risk and uncertainty is discussed by reviewing the theory of Subjective

Divorce and health: good data in need of better theory.

Science.gov (United States)

Sbarra, David A; Coan, James A

2017-02-01

A very large literature links the experiences of marital separation and divorce to risk for a range of poor distal health outcomes, including early death. What is far less clear, however, is the mechanistic pathways that convey this risk. Several plausible mechanisms are identified in the literature, and the central thesis of this paper is that the empirical study of divorce and health will benefit enormously from a renewed reliance on theory to dictate how these mechanisms of action may unfold over time. This review emphasizes the roles of attachment and social baseline theories in making specific mechanistic predictions and highlights the ways in which these perspectives can contribute new empirical knowledge on risk and resilience following marital dissolution. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk Probabilities

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rojas-Nandayapa, Leonardo

Tail probabilities of sums of heavy-tailed random variables are of a major importance in various branches of Applied Probability, such as Risk Theory, Queueing Theory, Financial Management, and are subject to intense research nowadays. To understand their relevance one just needs to think...... analytic expression for the distribution function of a sum of random variables. The presence of heavy-tailed random variables complicates the problem even more. The objective of this dissertation is to provide better approximations by means of sharp asymptotic expressions and Monte Carlo estimators...

Leverage Aversion and Risk Parity

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Asness, Clifford; Frazzini, Andrea; Heje Pedersen, Lasse

2012-01-01

The authors show that leverage aversion changes the predictions of modern portfolio theory: Safer assets must offer higher risk-adjusted returns than riskier assets. Consuming the high risk-adjusted returns of safer assets requires leverage, creating an opportunity for investors with the ability...... to apply leverage. Risk parity portfolios exploit this opportunity by equalizing the risk allocation across asset classes, thus overweighting safer assets relative to their weight in the market portfolio....

The 'revealed preferences' theory: Assumptions and conjectures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Green, C.H.

1983-01-01

Being kind of intuitive psychology the 'Revealed-Preferences'- theory based approaches towards determining the acceptable risks are a useful method for the generation of hypotheses. In view of the fact that reliability engineering develops faster than methods for the determination of reliability aims the Revealed-Preferences approach is a necessary preliminary help. Some of the assumptions on which the 'Revealed-Preferences' theory is based will be identified and analysed and afterwards compared with experimentally obtained results. (orig./DG) [de

Macroeconomic Sources of FOREX Risk

OpenAIRE

Smith, Peter N; Wickens, Michael R.

2002-01-01

This Paper is an exploration into the links between macroeconomics and finance as they affect the FOREX risk premium. SDF theory is used in which the factors are observable macroeconomic variables. Three SDF theories are compared: a benchmark model based on traditional tests of FOREX efficiency; consumption-based CAPM; and the monetary model of the exchange rate. The theory takes account of both domestic and foreign investors. The joint distribution of the excess return to FOREX and the macro...

Towards a theory of tiered testing.

Science.gov (United States)

Hansson, Sven Ove; Rudén, Christina

2007-06-01

Tiered testing is an essential part of any resource-efficient strategy for the toxicity testing of a large number of chemicals, which is required for instance in the risk management of general (industrial) chemicals, In spite of this, no general theory seems to be available for the combination of single tests into efficient tiered testing systems. A first outline of such a theory is developed. It is argued that chemical, toxicological, and decision-theoretical knowledge should be combined in the construction of such a theory. A decision-theoretical approach for the optimization of test systems is introduced. It is based on expected utility maximization with simplified assumptions covering factual and value-related information that is usually missing in the development of test systems.

Environmental Risk Profiling of the Volta Delta, Ghana

Science.gov (United States)

Nyarko, B. K.; Appeaning-Addo, K.; Amisigo, B.

2017-12-01

Volta Delta communities find it difficult to absorb or bear risk at different levels, because of the physical and economic impacts of environmental hazards. In this regards various agencies and organizations have in recent years launched initiatives to measure and identify risk areas with a set of indicators and indices. The theory underpinning this study is concepts of Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT). The Cox proportional hazards regression model will be used as the model for the risk profile. Finding the optimal level of environmental risk for activities in the Volta Delta considering the risk required, risk capacity and risk tolerance. Using data from different sources, an environmental risk profile was developed for the Volta Delta. The result indicates that risks are distributed across the Delta. However, areas that have government interventions, such as sea defense system and irrigation facilities have less threat. In addition wealthy areas do effectively reduce the threat of any form of disaster.

Analysis of algal bloom risk with uncertainties in lakes by integrating self-organizing map and fuzzy information theory.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Qiuwen; Rui, Han; Li, Weifeng; Zhang, Yanhui

2014-06-01

Algal blooms are a serious problem in waters, which damage aquatic ecosystems and threaten drinking water safety. However, the outbreak mechanism of algal blooms is very complex with great uncertainty, especially for large water bodies where environmental conditions have obvious variation in both space and time. This study developed an innovative method which integrated a self-organizing map (SOM) and fuzzy information diffusion theory to comprehensively analyze algal bloom risks with uncertainties. The Lake Taihu was taken as study case and the long-term (2004-2010) on-site monitoring data were used. The results showed that algal blooms in Taihu Lake were classified into four categories and exhibited obvious spatial-temporal patterns. The lake was mainly characterized by moderate bloom but had high uncertainty, whereas severe blooms with low uncertainty were observed in the northwest part of the lake. The study gives insight on the spatial-temporal dynamics of algal blooms, and should help government and decision-makers outline policies and practices on bloom monitoring and prevention. The developed method provides a promising approach to estimate algal bloom risks under uncertainties. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Risk Assessment in the UK Health and Safety System: Theory and Practice

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Karen Russ

2010-09-01

Full Text Available In the UK, a person or organisation that creates risk is required to manage and control that risk so that it is reduced 'So Far As Is Reasonably Practicable' (SFAIRP. How the risk is managed is to be determined by those who create the risk. They have a duty to demonstrate that they have taken action to ensure all risk is reduced SFAIRP and must have documentary evidence, for example a risk assessment or safety case, to prove that they manage the risks their activities create. The UK Health and Safety Executive (HSE does not tell organisations how to manage the risks they create but does inspect the quality of risk identification and management. This paper gives a brief overview of where responsibility for occupational health and safety lies in the UK, and how risk should be managed through risk assessment. The focus of the paper is three recent major UK incidents, all involving fatalities, and all of which were wholly avoidable if risks had been properly assessed and managed. The paper concludes with an analysis of the common failings of risk assessments and key actions for improvement.

Risk Assessment in the UK Health and Safety System: Theory and Practice.

Science.gov (United States)

Russ, Karen

2010-09-01

In the UK, a person or organisation that creates risk is required to manage and control that risk so that it is reduced 'So Far As Is Reasonably Practicable' (SFAIRP). How the risk is managed is to be determined by those who create the risk. They have a duty to demonstrate that they have taken action to ensure all risk is reduced SFAIRP and must have documentary evidence, for example a risk assessment or safety case, to prove that they manage the risks their activities create. The UK Health and Safety Executive (HSE) does not tell organisations how to manage the risks they create but does inspect the quality of risk identification and management. This paper gives a brief overview of where responsibility for occupational health and safety lies in the UK, and how risk should be managed through risk assessment. The focus of the paper is three recent major UK incidents, all involving fatalities, and all of which were wholly avoidable if risks had been properly assessed and managed. The paper concludes with an analysis of the common failings of risk assessments and key actions for improvement.

Adolescence and risk-taking: Reflection of irrationality or rationality?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Videnović Marina

2011-01-01

Full Text Available The frequency of risk-taking behaviours increases during adolescent years. At the same time, cognitive development proceeds from lesser to greater sophistication. We will try to explain the risk-taking paradox: on the one hand, cognitive skills are more mature in adolescence, while, on the other, maladaptive behaviour is present. The main aim of this study is to make a connection between cognitive development and risk-taking. This is slightly unusual, since it is more frequent to look for interactions between emotional and social factors and risk-taking. First, we define what kind of behaviour risk-taking is. There are a few dimensions that could be used for managing through a diversity of definitions. In addition, we examine how important the issue of risky behaviour is in the theories of adolescent's development. Finally, we make a connection between Piaget's, Vygotsky's and Information-Processing models of changes during adolescence and theories and studies about risk-taking in this period of life. Several researchers have tried to make this kind of connection. We propose some additional ways in which predictions from theories of cognitive development could be used for explaining risk-taking behaviour. .

Analysis of algal bloom risk with uncertainties in lakes by integrating self-organizing map and fuzzy information theory

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chen, Qiuwen, E-mail: qchen@rcees.ac.cn [RCEES, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shuangqinglu 18, Beijing 10085 (China); China Three Gorges University, Daxuelu 8, Yichang 443002 (China); CEER, Nanjing Hydraulics Research Institute, Guangzhoulu 223, Nanjing 210029 (China); Rui, Han; Li, Weifeng; Zhang, Yanhui [RCEES, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shuangqinglu 18, Beijing 10085 (China)

2014-06-01

Algal blooms are a serious problem in waters, which damage aquatic ecosystems and threaten drinking water safety. However, the outbreak mechanism of algal blooms is very complex with great uncertainty, especially for large water bodies where environmental conditions have obvious variation in both space and time. This study developed an innovative method which integrated a self-organizing map (SOM) and fuzzy information diffusion theory to comprehensively analyze algal bloom risks with uncertainties. The Lake Taihu was taken as study case and the long-term (2004–2010) on-site monitoring data were used. The results showed that algal blooms in Taihu Lake were classified into four categories and exhibited obvious spatial–temporal patterns. The lake was mainly characterized by moderate bloom but had high uncertainty, whereas severe blooms with low uncertainty were observed in the northwest part of the lake. The study gives insight on the spatial–temporal dynamics of algal blooms, and should help government and decision-makers outline policies and practices on bloom monitoring and prevention. The developed method provides a promising approach to estimate algal bloom risks under uncertainties. - Highlights: • An innovative method is developed to analyze algal bloom risks with uncertainties. • The algal blooms in Taihu Lake showed obvious spatial and temporal patterns. • The lake is mainly characterized as moderate bloom but with high uncertainty. • Severe bloom with low uncertainty appeared occasionally in the northwest part. • The results provide important information to bloom monitoring and management.

Compound risk judgment in tasks with both idiosyncratic and systematic risk: The "Robust Beauty" of additive probability integration.

Science.gov (United States)

Sundh, Joakim; Juslin, Peter

2018-02-01

In this study, we explore how people integrate risks of assets in a simulated financial market into a judgment of the conjunctive risk that all assets decrease in value, both when assets are independent and when there is a systematic risk present affecting all assets. Simulations indicate that while mental calculation according to naïve application of probability theory is best when the assets are independent, additive or exemplar-based algorithms perform better when systematic risk is high. Considering that people tend to intuitively approach compound probability tasks using additive heuristics, we expected the participants to find it easiest to master tasks with high systematic risk - the most complex tasks from the standpoint of probability theory - while they should shift to probability theory or exemplar memory with independence between the assets. The results from 3 experiments confirm that participants shift between strategies depending on the task, starting off with the default of additive integration. In contrast to results in similar multiple cue judgment tasks, there is little evidence for use of exemplar memory. The additive heuristics also appear to be surprisingly context-sensitive, with limited generalization across formally very similar tasks. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Lay and expert perceptions of zoonotic risks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Karsten Klint; Lassen, Jesper; Robinson, P.

2005-01-01

As in many other areas, there is a divide between lay and expert perceptions of risk within the food sector, and this can lead to disagreement over priorities in food risk management. The risk perception literature tends to stress that the parties involved in this disagreement have different...... concepts of risk and hence are bound more or less to talk at cross-purposes. This paper suggests an alternative analysis: In the light of moral theory, the conflicting perspectives can be understood as a genuine moral conflict. When this conflict is conceptualised, a rational dialogue becomes possible....... The paper reports a series of qualitative interviews with lay people and experts on zoonotic food risks. The interviews are used to reconstruct the values underlying some of the dominant perspectives. The conflict between these stylised perspectives is then analysed with the help of moral theory. Finally...

Remediation of at-risk medical students: theory in action

OpenAIRE

Winston, K.A.; Vleuten, C.P.M. van der; Scherpbier, A.J.J.A.

2013-01-01

BACKGROUND: Previous work has shown that a programme that draws on a blend of theories makes a positive difference to outcomes for students who fail and repeat their first semester at medical school. Exploration of student and teacher perspectives revealed that remediation of struggling medical students can be achieved through a cognitive apprenticeship within a small community of inquiry. This community needs expert teachers capable of performing a unique combination of roles (facilitator, n...

Theory and Application of an Economic Performance Measure of Risk

NARCIS (Netherlands)

C. Niu (Cuizhen); X. Guo (Xu); M.J. McAleer (Michael); W.-K. Wong (Wing-Keung)

2017-01-01

textabstractHomm and Pigorsch (2012a) use the Aumann and Serrano index to develop a new economic performance measure (EPM), which is well known to have advantages over other measures. In this paper, we extend the theory by constructing a one-sample confidence interval of EPM, and construct

Efficacy of a web-based intelligent tutoring system for communicating genetic risk of breast cancer: a fuzzy-trace theory approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Wolfe, Christopher R; Reyna, Valerie F; Widmer, Colin L; Cedillos, Elizabeth M; Fisher, Christopher R; Brust-Renck, Priscila G; Weil, Audrey M

2015-01-01

. Many healthy women consider genetic testing for breast cancer risk, yet BRCA testing issues are complex. . To determine whether an intelligent tutor, BRCA Gist, grounded in fuzzy-trace theory (FTT), increases gist comprehension and knowledge about genetic testing for breast cancer risk, improving decision making. . In 2 experiments, 410 healthy undergraduate women were randomly assigned to 1 of 3 groups: an online module using a Web-based tutoring system (BRCA Gist) that uses artificial intelligence technology, a second group read highly similar content from the National Cancer Institute (NCI) Web site, and a third that completed an unrelated tutorial. . BRCA Gist applied FTT and was designed to help participants develop gist comprehension of topics relevant to decisions about BRCA genetic testing, including how breast cancer spreads, inherited genetic mutations, and base rates. . We measured content knowledge, gist comprehension of decision-relevant information, interest in testing, and genetic risk and testing judgments. . Control knowledge scores ranged from 54% to 56%, NCI improved significantly to 65% and 70%, and BRCA Gist improved significantly more to 75% and 77%, P tutors, such as BRCA Gist, are scalable, cost-effective ways of helping people understand complex issues, improving decision making. © The Author(s) 2014.

An Introduction to Item Response Theory for Health Behavior Researchers

Science.gov (United States)

Warne, Russell T.; McKyer, E. J. Lisako; Smith, Matthew L.

2012-01-01

Objective: To introduce item response theory (IRT) to health behavior researchers by contrasting it with classical test theory and providing an example of IRT in health behavior. Method: Demonstrate IRT by fitting the 2PL model to substance-use survey data from the Adolescent Health Risk Behavior questionnaire (n = 1343 adolescents). Results: An…

Vested interest and environmental risk communication

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

De Dominicis, Stefano; Crano, William D.; Ganucci Cancellieri, Uberta

2014-01-01

Vested interest theory (VIT), first investigated on environmental risk, suggests that the hedonic relevance of an attitude object moderates relations between attitudes, intentions, and responses to danger. Emphasizing vested interest may maximize impacts of risk communications. Study 1 (N=215...... method of developing effective risk announcements.......) assessed differences between inhabitants of two flood-risk areas in Italy on past experience, risk perceptions, concerns, attitudes, and behavioral intentions. Objectively, higher risk areas' residents reported more experience, and greater perceived risk and concern, while no preparedness differences were...

How to make a risk seem riskier

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carissa Bonner

2008-06-01

Full Text Available Which statement conveys greater risk: ``100 people die from cancer every day'' or ``36,500 people die from cancer every year''? In statistics where both frequencies and temporal information are used to convey risk, two theories predict opposite answers to this question. Construal level theory predicts that ``100 people die from cancer every day'' will be judged as more risky, while the ratio bias predicts that the equivalent ``36,500 people die from cancer every year'' will result in higher risk judgments. An experiment investigated which format produces higher risk ratings, and whether ratings are influenced by increasing the salience of the numerical or temporal part of the statistic. Forty-eight participants were randomly assigned to a numerical, temporal or control salience condition, and rated risk framed as number of deaths per day or per year. The year format was found to result in higher perceived risk, indicating that the ratio bias effect is dominant, but there was no effect of salience.

Risk - a new field of research?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bechmann, G.

1993-01-01

Risk research is a research activity that hitherto has failed to come up with a standard concept of risk, or theory of risk. The contribution explains three major approaches and basic orientations, which represent a formal and law-oriented approach, a psychological and cognitive approach, and the approach starting from cultural and sociological aspects. (DG) [de

Risk Implications of Energy Policy Instruments

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kitzing, Lena

papers and a working paper), based on a combination of micro-economic and policy analysis. Financial theory is used for the quantitative analysis of investment problems under uncertainty, including mean-variance portfolio theory, real option analysis, Monte Carlo simulations and time series analysis...... show, both qualitatively and quantitatively, that policy makers cannot neglect risk implications when designing RES support instruments without compromising either on effectiveness or cost-efficiency of energy policy. The central research questions are: how can risk implications of RES policy...... instruments be integrated into policy design, so that the policies provide adequate investment incentives? And can the consideration of such risk implications in policy design make overall energy policy more successful? These questions are answered in seven research papers (four journal papers, two conference...

Incorporating Contagion in Portfolio Credit Risk Models Using Network Theory

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Anagnostou, I.; Sourabh, S.; Kandhai, D.

2018-01-01

Portfolio credit risk models estimate the range of potential losses due to defaults or deteriorations in credit quality. Most of these models perceive default correlation as fully captured by the dependence on a set of common underlying risk factors. In light of empirical evidence, the ability of

Neurodevelopmental risk factors in schizophrenia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lobato M.I.

2001-01-01

Full Text Available The authors review environmental and neurodevelopmental risk factors for schizophrenic disorders, with emphasis on minor physical anomalies, particularly craniofacial anomalies and dermatoglyphic variations. The high prevalence of these anomalies among schizophrenic subjects supports the neurodevelopmental theory of the etiology of schizophrenia, since they suggest either genetically or epigenetically controlled faulty embryonic development of structures of ectodermal origin like brain and skin. This may disturb neurodevelopment that in turn may cause these subjects to be at increased risk for the development of schizophrenia and related disorders. The precise confirmation of this theory, at least in some cases, will provide further understanding of these illnesses, allowing easy and inexpensive identification of subjects at risk and providing guidelines for the development of new pharmacological interventions for early treatment and even for primary prevention of the illness.

Averse to Initiative: Risk Management’s Effect on Mission Command

Science.gov (United States)

2017-05-25

Master’s Thesis 3. DATES COVERED (From - To) JUN 2016 – MAY 2017 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Averse to Initiative: Risk Management’s Effect on Mission...decision weights and potential implications of educating leaders with Prospect Theory . Prospect Theory sheds light on how to look at loss and opportunity...the gain–causing risk aversion. Leaders educated in how to analyze a problem using Prospect Theory can rationally approach gains and losses. For the

Prospect theory: An application to European option pricing

OpenAIRE

Martina Nardon; Paolo Pianca

2012-01-01

Empirical studies on quoted options highlight deviations from the theoretical model of Black and Scholes; this is due to different causes, such as assumptions regarding the price dynamics, markets frictions and investors' attitude toward risk. In this contribution, we focus on this latter issue and study how to value European options within the continuous cumulative prospect theory. According to prospect theory, individuals do not always take their decisions consistently with the maximization...

Building a Natural Disaster Risk Index for Supply Chain Operations

OpenAIRE

Kun Liao; Ozden Bayazit; Fang Wang

2014-01-01

Risk for an organization is associated with uncertainties in all areas of its operations. As firms move toward global sourcing, supply chain risk increases dramatically, which is linked to lower financial performance and market value. One major type of supply chain risk is disruptions caused by natural or man-made disasters. In this paper, major factors causing supply chain disruptions are identified based on resource dependency theory and contingency theory. As a result of the study, a compr...

Risk Management and Insurance Decisions under Ambiguity

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Martínez-Correa, Jimmy

I study the impact of ambiguity on insurance decisions and the optimality of insurance contracts. My tractable approach allows me to study the interaction between risk and ambiguity attitudes. When insurance decisions are made independently of other assets, for a given increase in wealth, both risk...... portfolio theory that assumes Subjective Expected Utility theory; however, it provides hints to a possible solution of the under-diversification puzzle of households. I also identify conditions under which more risk or ambiguity aversion decreases the demand for coinsurance. Additionally, I show...... a counterexample to a classical result in insurance economics where an insurance contract with straight deductible is dominated by a coinsurance contract. Finally, I find that a modified Borch rule characterizes the optimal insurance contract with bilateral risk and ambiguity attitudes and heterogeneity in beliefs....

On the Teaching of Portfolio Theory.

Science.gov (United States)

Biederman, Daniel K.

1992-01-01

Demonstrates how a simple portfolio problem expressed explicitly as an expected utility maximization problem can be used to instruct students in portfolio theory. Discusses risk aversion, decision making under uncertainty, and the limitations of the traditional mean variance approach. Suggests students may develop a greater appreciation of general…

Mediating Mechanisms of Theory-Based Psychosocial Determinants on Behavioral Changes in a Middle School Obesity Risk Reduction Curriculum Intervention, Choice, Control, and Change.

Science.gov (United States)

Gray, Heewon Lee; Contento, Isobel R; Koch, Pamela A; Noia, Jennifer Di

2016-10-01

A limited number of school-based intervention studies have explored mediating mechanisms of theory-based psychosocial variables on obesity risk behavior changes. The current study investigated how theory-based psychosocial determinants mediated changes in energy balance-related behaviors (EBRBs) among urban youth. A secondary analysis study was conducted using data from a cluster randomized controlled trial. Data from students at 10 middle schools in New York City (n = 1136) were used. The intervention, Choice, Control, and Change curriculum, was based on social cognitive and self-determination theories. Theory-based psychosocial determinants (goal intention, cognitive outcome expectations, affective outcome expectations, self-efficacy, perceived barriers, and autonomous motivation) and EBRBs were measured with self-report questionnaires. Mediation mechanisms were examined using structural equation modeling, Results: Mediating mechanisms for daily sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) consumption and purposeful stair climbing were identified. Models with best fit indices (root mean square error of approximation = 0.039/0.045, normed fit index = 0.916/0.882; comparative fit index = 0.945/0.932; Tucker-Lewis index = 0.896/0.882, respectively) suggested that goal intention and reduced perceived barriers were significant proximal mediators for reducing SSB consumption among both boys and girls or increasing physical activity by stair climbing among boys. Cognitive outcome expectations, affective outcome expectations, self-efficacy, and autonomous motivation indirectly mediated behavioral changes through goal intention or perceived barriers (p behavioral outcome variances. Theory-based psychosocial determinants targeted in Choice, Control, and Change in fact mediated behavior changes in middle school students. Strategies targeting these mediators might benefit future success of behavioral interventions. Further studies are needed to determine other

Theory of Mind, Emotion Recognition and Social Perception in Individuals at Clinical High Risk for Psychosis: findings from the NAPLS-2 cohort.

Science.gov (United States)

Barbato, Mariapaola; Liu, Lu; Cadenhead, Kristin S; Cannon, Tyrone D; Cornblatt, Barbara A; McGlashan, Thomas H; Perkins, Diana O; Seidman, Larry J; Tsuang, Ming T; Walker, Elaine F; Woods, Scott W; Bearden, Carrie E; Mathalon, Daniel H; Heinssen, Robert; Addington, Jean

2015-09-01

Social cognition, the mental operations that underlie social interactions, is a major construct to investigate in schizophrenia. Impairments in social cognition are present before the onset of psychosis, and even in unaffected first-degree relatives, suggesting that social cognition may be a trait marker of the illness. In a large cohort of individuals at clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR) and healthy controls, three domains of social cognition (theory of mind, facial emotion recognition and social perception) were assessed to clarify which domains are impaired in this population. Six-hundred and seventy-five CHR individuals and 264 controls, who were part of the multi-site North American Prodromal Longitudinal Study, completed The Awareness of Social Inference Test , the Penn Emotion Recognition task , the Penn Emotion Differentiation task , and the Relationship Across Domains , measures of theory of mind, facial emotion recognition, and social perception, respectively. Social cognition was not related to positive and negative symptom severity, but was associated with age and IQ. CHR individuals demonstrated poorer performance on all measures of social cognition. However, after controlling for age and IQ, the group differences remained significant for measures of theory of mind and social perception, but not for facial emotion recognition. Theory of mind and social perception are impaired in individuals at CHR for psychosis. Age and IQ seem to play an important role in the arising of deficits in facial affect recognition. Future studies should examine the stability of social cognition deficits over time and their role, if any, in the development of psychosis.

Globalization theories of crime

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kostić Miomira

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The process of globalization is affecting all areas of social life, and thus no exception crime. Its effect is most evident in the development of new forms of crime that transcends national borders and states receive a supranational character. This primarily refers to the various forms of organized crime, but also in certain of its forms, which are a kind of state violence and the consequences of which are reflected in the systematic violation of human rights. Also, the process of globalization of crime has caused the formation of international organizations aimed at combating of crime which transcends national boundaries. New forms of crime are conditioned by globalization demanded a new approach to their study. Existing criminological theories have proven inadequate in explaining all the causes that lead to crime. It was necessary to create new theories and new doctrines about the causes of crime. In the continuous process of development of criminology, in constant search for new explanations of the causes of crime, within the sociological theories have emerged and globalization theories of criminality, which the authors in their work special attention. The focus of the globalization theory on crime just on its prevention, to reduce the risk of its occurrence. This is certainly a positive step because it shifts the focus of criminologists with immediate causes of crime and focus on the study of their interactions, which is largely socially conditioned, which is especially prominent in the work. The aim of this paper is to point out that globalization theories should not be viewed in isolation from other criminological theories and doctrines, but that one, although relatively new, contribute to the creation of complete systems of criminological doctrines in order to find the optimal social response to crime.

Explaining Consumer Safe Food Handling Through Behavior-Change Theories: A Systematic Review.

Science.gov (United States)

Young, Ian; Reimer, Danielle; Greig, Judy; Meldrum, Richard; Turgeon, Patricia; Waddell, Lisa

2017-11-01

Consumers often engage in unsafe food handling behaviors at home. Previous studies have investigated the ability of behavior-change theories to explain and predict these behaviors. The purpose of this review was to determine which theories are most consistently associated with consumers' safe food handling behaviors across the published literature. A standardized systematic review methodology was used, consisting of the following steps: comprehensive search strategy; relevance screening of identified references; confirmation of relevance and characterization of relevant articles; risk-of-bias assessment; data extraction; and descriptive analysis of study results. A total of 20 relevant studies were identified; they were mostly conducted in Australia (40%) and the United States (35%) and used a cross-sectional design (65%). Most studies targeted young adults (65%), and none focused on high-risk consumer groups. The outcomes of 70% of studies received high overall risk-of-bias ratings, largely due to a lack of control for confounding variables. The most commonly applied theory was the Theory of Planned Behavior (45% of studies), which, along with other investigated theories of behavior change, was frequently associated with consumer safe food handling behavioral intentions and behaviors. However, overall, there was wide variation in the specific constructs found to be significantly associated and in the percentage of variance explained in each outcome across studies. The results suggest that multiple theories of behavior change can help to explain consumer safe food handling behaviors and could be adopted to guide the development of future behavior-change interventions. In these contexts, theories should be appropriately selected and adapted to meet the needs of the specific target population and context of interest.

AN EDUCATIONAL THEORY MODEL--(SIGGS), AN INTEGRATION OF SET THEORY, INFORMATION THEORY, AND GRAPH THEORY WITH GENERAL SYSTEMS THEORY.

Science.gov (United States)

MACCIA, ELIZABETH S.; AND OTHERS

AN ANNOTATED BIBLIOGRAPHY OF 20 ITEMS AND A DISCUSSION OF ITS SIGNIFICANCE WAS PRESENTED TO DESCRIBE CURRENT UTILIZATION OF SUBJECT THEORIES IN THE CONSTRUCTION OF AN EDUCATIONAL THEORY. ALSO, A THEORY MODEL WAS USED TO DEMONSTRATE CONSTRUCTION OF A SCIENTIFIC EDUCATIONAL THEORY. THE THEORY MODEL INCORPORATED SET THEORY (S), INFORMATION THEORY…

The Effects of Framing, Reflection, Probability, and Payoff on Risk Preference in Choice Tasks.

Science.gov (United States)

Kühberger; Schulte-Mecklenbeck; Perner

1999-06-01

A meta-analysis of Asian-disease-like studies is presented to identify the factors which determine risk preference. First the confoundings between probability levels, payoffs, and framing conditions are clarified in a task analysis. Then the role of framing, reflection, probability, type, and size of payoff is evaluated in a meta-analysis. It is shown that bidirectional framing effects exist for gains and for losses. Presenting outcomes as gains tends to induce risk aversion, while presenting outcomes as losses tends to induce risk seeking. Risk preference is also shown to depend on the size of the payoffs, on the probability levels, and on the type of good at stake (money/property vs human lives). In general, higher payoffs lead to increasing risk aversion. Higher probabilities lead to increasing risk aversion for gains and to increasing risk seeking for losses. These findings are confirmed by a subsequent empirical test. Shortcomings of existing formal theories, such as prospect theory, cumulative prospect theory, venture theory, and Markowitz's utility theory, are identified. It is shown that it is not probabilities or payoffs, but the framing condition, which explains most variance. These findings are interpreted as showing that no linear combination of formally relevant predictors is sufficient to capture the essence of the framing phenomenon. Copyright 1999 Academic Press.

Are doctors risk takers?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pikkel D

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Dvora Pikkel,1 Yael Sara Pikkel Igal,2 Adi Sharabi-Nov,3,4 Joseph Pikkel2,51Risk Management and Patient Safety Unit, Assuta Medical Center, Ramat Hahayal, Tel Aviv, 2Faculty of Medicine, Bar-Ilan University, 3Research Wing, Ziv Medical Center, Safed, 4Tel-Hai Academic College, Upper Galilee, 5Department of Ophthalmology, Ziv Medical Center, Safed, Israel Objective: Risk taking affects human behavior in general and decisions in medicine in particular. We used game theory to assess physicians' risk-taking tendencies. Methods: Physicians were recruited to the study by advertisement. It was explained that they would receive a sum of money for correct prediction of the flipping of a coin. They could try to sell their opportunity to flip the coin for an amount of money they determined. The sum offered by the participants was considered an indicator of risk taking. A demographic questionnaire assessed age, sex, seniority, and area of specialization of the participants. A multivariate analysis assessed associations between risk-taking behavior and, seniority, and specialization. Results: Sixty-two physicians participated, 36 males and 26 females, seniority 1–34 years. Of a possible range of 0–10, the mean score for risk taking was 5.5 – just slightly more than indifference. Negative correlations were found between risk taking and seniority, and between risk taking and age (β=–0.45, P<0.001 for both. Surgeons and anesthesiologists showed greater risk taking than did other physicians (β=0.69, P<0.05; and females less than males, though the latter correlation was not statistically significant. Conclusion: Understanding the tendency of physicians to risk taking may elucidate their decision-making processes and contribute to understanding of causes of adverse events and to the education of physicians. Keywords: risk taking, game theory, seniority, surgeons, anesthesiologists

DOMESTIC VS INTERNATIONAL RISK DIVERSIFICATION POSSIBILITIES IN SOUTHEASTERN EUROPEAN STOCK MARKETS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sinisa Bogdan

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Modern portfolio theory is one of the most important investment decision tools in finances. In 1952 Harry Markowitz set the foundations of the Modern portfolio theory, since than this theory was a backbone of many studies that dealt with investment decisions. This research applies mean-variance portfolio optimization on the international Southeastern Europe and domestic Croatian stock market exchange. Aim of this research is to compare risk diversification possibilities on the Southeastern European capital markets and on the Croatian Capital market. By analyzing nine stock market indices in the Southeastern Europe and twenty stocks from Zagreb Stock Exchange in the period of 36 months, results clearly show that internationally diversified portfolios offer better portfolio risk reduction than domestically diversified portfolios. Lowest achieved risk in international portfolio outperformed lowest achieved risk in domestic portfolio. Since risk is lower, returns are also much lower compared to domestic stock portfolios. Results of this research also report that domestic stock portfolios outperformed international portfolios at the risk level equal or higher than 0,97%, for the same risk, domestic portfolios offer greater returns.

Syndemics: A theory in search of data or data in search of a theory?

Science.gov (United States)

Tsai, Alexander C

2018-06-01

The concept of a syndemic was proposed more than two decades ago to explain how large-scale social forces might give rise to co-occurring epidemics that synergistically interact to undermine health in vulnerable populations. This conceptual instrument has the potential to help policymakers and program implementers in their endeavors to improve population health. Accordingly, it has become an increasingly popular heuristic for advocacy, most notably in the field of HIV treatment and prevention. However, most empirical studies purporting to validate the theory of syndemics actually do no such thing. Tomori et al. (2018) provide a novel case study from India illustrating how the dominant empirical approach fails to promote deeper understanding about how hazardous alcohol use, illicit drug use, depression, childhood sexual abuse, and intimate partner violence interact to worsen HIV risk among men who have sex with men. In this commentary, I relate the theory of syndemics to other established social science and public health theories of disease distribution, identify possible sources of conceptual and empirical confusion, and provide concrete suggestions for how to validate the theory using a mixed-methods approach. The hope is that more evidence can be mobilized -- whether informed by the theory of syndemics or not -- to improve health and psychosocial wellbeing among vulnerable populations worldwide. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Negotiation Decision Support Systems: Analysing Negotiations under the Conditions of Risk

OpenAIRE

Nipun Agarwal

2014-01-01

Negotiation Theory is a research area with emphasis from three different research streams being game theory, psychology and negotiation analysis. Recently, negotiation theory research has moved towards the combination of game theory and psychology negotiation theory models that could be called Integrated Negotiation Theory (INT). As, negotiations are often impacted by external factors, there is risk associated with achieving the expected outcomes. Prospect theory and Negotiation theory are co...

Non-genetic risk factors in haemophilia A inhibitor management - the danger theory and the use of animal models.

Science.gov (United States)

Lövgren, K M; Søndergaard, H; Skov, S; Wiinberg, B

2016-09-01

In haemophilia A (HA) management, antidrug antibodies, or inhibitors, are a serious complication that renders factor VIII (FVIII) replacement therapy ineffective, increases morbidity and reduces quality of life for affected patients. Inhibitor development aetiology is multifactorial and covers both genetic and therapy related risk factors. Many therapy-related risk factors have proven difficult to confirm due to several confounding factors and the small study populations available. However, clinical studies indicate that e.g. on-demand treatment and surgery affect inhibitor development, and explanations for this association are being investigated. A potential explanation is the danger signal effect, where the immune response is activated by endogenous or exogenous danger or damage signals present at the time and site of FVIII administration. The danger theory explains how alarm signals from stressed, injured or dying cells can activate an immune reaction, without the involvement of foreign antigens. Bleeds, trauma, surgery or concomitant infection could be events initiating danger signalling in HA patients, resulting in an immune reaction towards administered FVIII that otherwise would pass unnoticed. This role of danger in HA inhibitor formation has previously been suggested, but a thorough discussion of this subject is lacking. The present review will discuss the potential role of danger signals in haemophilia and inhibitor development, with focus on treatment related risk factors with a suspected danger signal aetiology; on-demand treatment, treatment during major bleeds or surgery, and treatment during infection or vaccination. Clinical studies as well as animal experiments addressing these factors will be reviewed. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Social Norms Theory and Concussion Education

Science.gov (United States)

Kroshus, Emily; Garnett, Bernice R.; Baugh, Christine M.; Calzo, Jerel P.

2015-01-01

Secondary prevention of harm from sport-related concussion is contingent on immediate removal from play post-injury. To date, educational efforts to reduce the prevalent risk behavior of continued play while symptomatic have been largely ineffective. Social norms theory may hold promise as a foundation for more effective concussion education aimed…

Treating Uncertainties in A Nuclear Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment by Means of the Distemper-Safer Theory of Evidence

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lo, Chungkung; Pedroni, N.; Zio, E.

2014-01-01

The analyses carried out within the Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessments (SPRAs) of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) are affected by significant aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. These uncertainties have to be represented and quantified coherently with the data, information and knowledge available, to provide reasonable assurance that related decisions can be taken robustly and with confidence. The amount of data, information and knowledge available for seismic risk assessment is typically limited, so that the analysis must strongly rely on expert judgments. In this paper, a Dempster-Shafer Theory (DST) framework for handling uncertainties in NPP SPRAs is proposed and applied to an example case study. The main contributions of this paper are two: (i) applying the complete DST framework to SPRA models, showing how to build the Dempster-Shafer structures of the uncertainty parameters based on industry generic data, and (ii) embedding Bayesian updating based on plant specific data into the framework. The results of the application to a case study show that the approach is feasible and effective in (i) describing and jointly propagating aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in SPRA models and (ii) providing 'conservative' bounds on the safety quantities of interest (i. e. Core Damage Frequency, CDF) that reflect the (limited) state of knowledge of the experts about the system of interest

Treating Uncertainties in A Nuclear Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment by Means of the Distemper-Safer Theory of Evidence

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lo, Chungkung [Chair on Systems Science and the Energetic Challenge, Paris (France); Pedroni, N.; Zio, E. [Politecnico di Milano, Milano (Italy)

2014-02-15

The analyses carried out within the Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessments (SPRAs) of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) are affected by significant aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. These uncertainties have to be represented and quantified coherently with the data, information and knowledge available, to provide reasonable assurance that related decisions can be taken robustly and with confidence. The amount of data, information and knowledge available for seismic risk assessment is typically limited, so that the analysis must strongly rely on expert judgments. In this paper, a Dempster-Shafer Theory (DST) framework for handling uncertainties in NPP SPRAs is proposed and applied to an example case study. The main contributions of this paper are two: (i) applying the complete DST framework to SPRA models, showing how to build the Dempster-Shafer structures of the uncertainty parameters based on industry generic data, and (ii) embedding Bayesian updating based on plant specific data into the framework. The results of the application to a case study show that the approach is feasible and effective in (i) describing and jointly propagating aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in SPRA models and (ii) providing 'conservative' bounds on the safety quantities of interest (i. e. Core Damage Frequency, CDF) that reflect the (limited) state of knowledge of the experts about the system of interest.

Accounting bases of theory: Why they matter

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zafeer Nagdee

2016-11-01

Full Text Available It is widely agreed that contemporary accounting practice is largely based on the application of professional accounting standards rather than on the application of sound, academic bases of theory. This has led to uncertainty within the field which has in turn inhibited the ability of accounting to develop into a more robust academic discipline. In conducting a thematic analysis of existing literature, this study will identify and expand on three key themes which will collectively establish the argument positing that a lacking basis of accounting theory has impaired the scholastic development of accounting practice worldwide. By introducing this argument to the academic community, this study will expose the economic risks associated with accounting’s absent bases of theory and will consequently add value by highlighting the need for additional research into the development, clarification and refinement of accounting theories that will result in more useful accounting practices worldwide

Journal Afrika Statistika ISSN 0852-0305 Distortion risk measures ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

la somme et sur la structure de dépendance des risques, représentée par une copule. ... Key words: Coherence; Dependence structure; Distortion function; Risk measure; Risk theory; insurance; Wang ..... Weighted risk capital allocations.

String theory or field theory?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marshakov, Andrei V

2002-01-01

The status of string theory is reviewed, and major recent developments - especially those in going beyond perturbation theory in the string theory and quantum field theory frameworks - are analyzed. This analysis helps better understand the role and place of string theory in the modern picture of the physical world. Even though quantum field theory describes a wide range of experimental phenomena, it is emphasized that there are some insurmountable problems inherent in it - notably the impossibility to formulate the quantum theory of gravity on its basis - which prevent it from being a fundamental physical theory of the world of microscopic distances. It is this task, the creation of such a theory, which string theory, currently far from completion, is expected to solve. In spite of its somewhat vague current form, string theory has already led to a number of serious results and greatly contributed to progress in the understanding of quantum field theory. It is these developments which are our concern in this review. (reviews of topical problems)

HIV/STD risk behaviors and perceptions among rural-to-urban migrants in China.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Xiaoming; Fang, Xiaoyi; Lin, Danhua; Mao, Rong; Wang, Jing; Cottrell, Lesley; Harris, Carole; Stanton, Bonita

2004-12-01

Data from 2,153 sexually active rural-to-urban migrants in China were analyzed to examine the relationship between the movement of rural-to-urban migration and increased HIV/STD (sexually transmitted disease) risk and the applicability of constructs of a Western-based theory of behavioral change to the study population. Measurements included migrant mobility, sexual risk, and the seven constructs of the protection motivation theory (PMT). Data in the current study suggest that high mobility among rural-to-urban migrants was associated with increased sexual risk. The PMT constructs are applicable in identifying perceptions and attitudes associated with sexual risk behaviors in this culturally distinct population. Increased sexual risk was associated with increased perceptions of extrinsic rewards, intrinsic rewards, and response cost. Also consistent with PMT, increased sexual risk was associated with perceptions of decreased severity, vulnerability, response efficacy, and self-efficacy. After controlling for a number of key confounding factors, all seven PMT constructs were associated with sexual risk in the manner posited by the theory. The association between mobility and sexual risk underscores the importance of effective HIV/STD prevention efforts among this vulnerable population. The social cognitive theories including the PMT may form a logical base for prevention intervention programs targeting rural-to-urban migrants in China.

Theories of how the school environment impacts on student health: systematic review and synthesis.

Science.gov (United States)

Bonell, C P; Fletcher, A; Jamal, F; Wells, H; Harden, A; Murphy, S; Thomas, J

2013-11-01

Public-health interventions informed by theory can be more effective but complex interventions often use insufficiently complex theories. We systematically reviewed theories of how school environments influence health. We included 37 reports drawing on 24 theories. Narrative synthesis summarised and categorised theories. We then produced an integrated theory of school environment influences on student health. This integrated theory could inform complex interventions such as health promoting schools programmes. Using systematic reviews to develop theories of change might be useful for other types of 'complex' public-health interventions addressing risks at the individual and community levels. © 2013 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

The Role of Medical Expenditure Risk in Portfolio Allocation Decisions.

Science.gov (United States)

Ayyagari, Padmaja; He, Daifeng

2017-11-01

Economic theory suggests that medical spending risk affects the extent to which households are willing to accept financial risk, and consequently their investment portfolios. In this study, we focus on the elderly for whom medical spending represents a substantial risk. We exploit the exogenous reduction in prescription drug spending risk because of the introduction of Medicare Part D in the U.S. in 2006 to identify the causal effect of medical spending risk on portfolio choice. Consistent with theory, we find that Medicare-eligible persons increased risky investment after the introduction of prescription drug coverage, relative to a younger, ineligible cohort. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Risk analytics for hedge funds

Science.gov (United States)

Pareek, Ankur

2005-05-01

The rapid growth of the hedge fund industry presents significant business opportunity for the institutional investors particularly in the form of portfolio diversification. To facilitate this, there is a need to develop a new set of risk analytics for investments consisting of hedge funds, with the ultimate aim to create transparency in risk measurement without compromising the proprietary investment strategies of hedge funds. As well documented in the literature, use of dynamic options like strategies by most of the hedge funds make their returns highly non-normal with fat tails and high kurtosis, thus rendering Value at Risk (VaR) and other mean-variance analysis methods unsuitable for hedge fund risk quantification. This paper looks at some unique concerns for hedge fund risk management and will particularly concentrate on two approaches from physical world to model the non-linearities and dynamic correlations in hedge fund portfolio returns: Self Organizing Criticality (SOC) and Random Matrix Theory (RMT).Random Matrix Theory analyzes correlation matrix between different hedge fund styles and filters random noise from genuine correlations arising from interactions within the system. As seen in the results of portfolio risk analysis, it leads to a better portfolio risk forecastability and thus to optimum allocation of resources to different hedge fund styles. The results also prove the efficacy of self-organized criticality and implied portfolio correlation as a tool for risk management and style selection for portfolios of hedge funds, being particularly effective during non-linear market crashes.

Multi-attribute risk assessment for risk ranking of natural gas pipelines

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brito, A.J.; Almeida, A.T. de

2009-01-01

The paper presents a decision model for risk assessment and for risk ranking of sections of natural gas pipelines based on multi-attribute utility theory. Pipeline hazard scenarios are surveyed and the reasons for a risk assessment model based on a multi-attribute approach are presented. Three dimensions of impact and the need to translate decision-makers' preferences into risk management decisions are highlighted. The model approaches these factors by using a multi-attribute utility function, in order to produce multi-dimensional risk measurements. By using decision analysis concepts, this model quantitatively incorporates the decision-maker's preferences and behavior regarding risk within clear and consistent risk measurements. In order to support the prioritizing of critical sections of pipeline in natural gas companies, this multi-attribute model also allows sections of pipeline to be ranked into a risk hierarchy. A numerical application based on a real case study was undertaken so that the effectiveness of the decision model could be verified

Consolidating the shared area of investigation between planning theory, risk theory and ethical inquiry

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Basta, C.

2012-01-01

Although it is perhaps the most prominent interdisciplinary theme to have emerged in the past decades, in the domain of planning studies the prevention of technological risks has only recently started the pathway towards a rigorous theoretical definition (Boholm and Lofsted 2004; Hayden Lesbirel and

Theory of Mind Impairments in Youth at Clinical High Risk of Psychosis.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, TianHong; Tang, YingYing; Cui, HuiRu; Lu, Xi; Xu, LiHua; Liu, XiaoHua; Li, HuiJun; Chow, Annabelle; Du, YaSong; Li, ChunBo; Jiang, KaiDa; Xiao, ZePing; Wang, JiJun

2016-01-01

The normal maturational processes of theory of mind (ToM) capacity are ongoing during adolescence and even early adulthood. However, research has shown that ToM ability also declines among adults suffering from prodromal psychotic experiences. The goal of this study was to investigate the characteristics of ToM performance in youth with clinical high risk (CHR) of psychosis. The Reading Mind in Eyes Task (RMET), including own-race and other-race eyes, was administered to 40 CHR youth; 42 age-, gender-, and education-matched healthy controls (HCs); and 62 adult patients with schizophrenia (SZ). Nine-month follow-up data were collected from 31 CHR subjects, of whom 7 (22.6%) had made the transition to psychosis. CHR youth showed significant impairment in RMET performance compared to HC youth but performed better than did SZ patients. Moreover, they were significantly slower than were HC youth in responding to the RMET, with a response time similar to that of SZ patients. In particular, they had significantly poorer accuracy in interpreting positive and neutral eye expressions compared to the HC group, but not in interpreting negative eye expressions. Preliminary follow-up data showed a trend toward significance (p = 0.079) for RMET performance between those who transitioned to psychosis and those who did not. Our findings illustrate that deficits in ToM capacity, specifically the ability to interpret people's mental state from eye expressions, occur early on in prodromal psychosis in youth. Early interventions for CHR youth focusing on ToM enhancement may halt progress toward psychosis.

Theory of Reasoned Action as a Framework for Communicating Climate Risk: A Case Study of Schoolchildren in the Mekong Delta in Vietnam

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Quynh Anh Nguyen

2018-06-01

Full Text Available Communicating climate risks to vulnerable groups motivating them to take adaptive actions remains a significant challenge in many populations, especially to children. The theory of reasoned action (TRA suggests that attitude and subjective norms are important for persuasive communication. This study assesses how to apply TRA, its constructs and other relevant factors to predict behavior intention and beliefs and to change behavior tendency. The randomized field experiment method was applied to explore the differences between pre- and post-communication treatments (2 × 2 design. Can Tho city, located in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam, was selected as the research context because of its vulnerability to climate change. The results show that, first, TRA was found to be a significant predictor model of children’s climate change behavior intentions. Second, attitude has a significant effect on the children’s intention to act while videos with subjective norm treatment had not. The treatment interaction of both constructs also had a significant effect. Third, TRA theory-based treatments are positively associated with changes in children’ salient beliefs on attitude and normative belief on social norm toward climate change. In addition, past practices, knowledge and gender are further factors that influence children’s behavior intentions. A theory-inspired design of communication strategy allows the prediction and influencing of intentions. This finding has strong implications for both research and development in Vietnam.

Subjective Expected Utility Theory with "Small Worlds"

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gyntelberg, Jacob; Hansen, Frank

which is a more general construction than a state space. We retain preference axioms similar in spirit to the Savage axioms and obtain, without abandoning linearity of expectations, a subjective expected utility theory which allows for an intuitive distinction between risk and uncertainty. We also...

Developmental Dyslexia: Predicting Individual Risk

Science.gov (United States)

Thompson, Paul A.; Hulme, Charles; Nash, Hannah M.; Gooch, Debbie; Hayiou-Thomas, Emma; Snowling, Margaret J.

2015-01-01

Background: Causal theories of dyslexia suggest that it is a heritable disorder, which is the outcome of multiple risk factors. However, whether early screening for dyslexia is viable is not yet known. Methods: The study followed children at high risk of dyslexia from preschool through the early primary years assessing them from age 3 years and 6…

String Theory and M-Theory

Science.gov (United States)

Becker, Katrin; Becker, Melanie; Schwarz, John H.

String theory is one of the most exciting and challenging areas of modern theoretical physics. This book guides the reader from the basics of string theory to recent developments. It introduces the basics of perturbative string theory, world-sheet supersymmetry, space-time supersymmetry, conformal field theory and the heterotic string, before describing modern developments, including D-branes, string dualities and M-theory. It then covers string geometry and flux compactifications, applications to cosmology and particle physics, black holes in string theory and M-theory, and the microscopic origin of black-hole entropy. It concludes with Matrix theory, the AdS/CFT duality and its generalizations. This book is ideal for graduate students and researchers in modern string theory, and will make an excellent textbook for a one-year course on string theory. It contains over 120 exercises with solutions, and over 200 homework problems with solutions available on a password protected website for lecturers at www.cambridge.org/9780521860697. Comprehensive coverage of topics from basics of string theory to recent developments Ideal textbook for a one-year course in string theory Includes over 100 exercises with solutions Contains over 200 homework problems with solutions available to lecturers on-line

String theory or field theory?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marshakov, A.V.

2002-01-01

The status of string theory is reviewed, and major recent developments - especially those in going beyond perturbation theory in the string theory and quantum field theory frameworks - are analyzed. This analysis helps better understand the role and place of experimental phenomena, it is emphasized that there are some insurmountable problems inherent in it - notably the impossibility to formulate the quantum theory of gravity on its basis - which prevent it from being a fundamental physical theory of the world of microscopic distances. It is this task, the creation of such a theory, which string theory, currently far from completion, is expected to solve. In spite of its somewhat vague current form, string theory has already led to a number of serious results and greatly contributed to progress in the understanding of quantum field theory. It is these developments, which are our concern in this review [ru

Theory and methodology of social, political and economic processes risks determining in different countries of the world

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yashina Nadezhda, I.

2015-06-01

Full Text Available The study deals with the problems of the theory and methodology of social, political and economic processes risks in different countries with relative indicators of the socio-economic development level, as well as the size and condition of the public debt. Developed by the authors the methodology of determining the risks of social, political and economic processes of public policy around the world revealed close relationship between socio-economic situation of the countries and their public debt. Within the framework of this methodology two groups of factors characterizing the socio-political and economic processes in the country are being developed. After that each exponent and indicator are being processed, using expert procedures. Maximum statutory values for tentatively referenced countries with effective and ineffective government policies are identified. Then standardization (specification and definition of integral (generalized indexes of socio-political and economic processes in the country are taking place. After that the ranking of countries by aggregated standardized ratio is arranged, taking into account the significance of the developed indicators. The final phase of implementation methodology is identifying risks of social, political and economic processes of public policy around the world. This is the ranking of countries by ratio of stability in public policy (stability of economic and socio-political processes in the country. As the result of implementation methodology the following output was received: what really makes a difference is not the amount of the country's debt, but how effectively it manages this debt, whether it has a goal to improve social and economic indicators. Practical testing methodology has proven that studied indicators fully characterize the development of the countries, their political, social and economic situation on the world stage.

Decision making under time pressure, modeled in a prospect theory framework.

Science.gov (United States)

Young, Diana L; Goodie, Adam S; Hall, Daniel B; Wu, Eric

2012-07-01

The current research examines the effects of time pressure on decision behavior based on a prospect theory framework. In Experiments 1 and 2, participants estimated certainty equivalents for binary gains-only bets in the presence or absence of time pressure. In Experiment 3, participants assessed comparable bets that were framed as losses. Data were modeled to establish psychological mechanisms underlying decision behavior. In Experiments 1 and 2, time pressure led to increased risk attractiveness, but no significant differences emerged in either probability discriminability or outcome utility. In Experiment 3, time pressure reduced probability discriminability, which was coupled with severe risk-seeking behavior for both conditions in the domain of losses. No significant effects of control over outcomes were observed. Results provide qualified support for theories that suggest increased risk-seeking for gains under time pressure.

Managing Risks in Dry Port Operations

OpenAIRE

Ciortescu Cezar-Gabriel; Pãvãla?cu Narcis Sebastian

2012-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to have an in-depth look into the phenomenon of risk assessment and risk management strategies in managing dry port operations as an integrated part into international containerized freight trade. The fact that world crises take the form of disruptions, bankruptcies, breakdowns, macroeconomic and political changes, and disasters leads to higher risks and makes risk management more and more difficult. This paper aims to discuss the theory behind the dry port concep...

Risk management guide

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Briscoe, G.J.

1977-06-01

Risk management requires an assessment or a knowledge of risk. This, in turn, requires identification of hazards (sources of risk) and a determination of risk (evaluation of the hazard degree). The hazard identification and risk analysis techniques presented in this Guide are, in general, based on the MORT concept that accidents result from unwanted energy flow in the absence of adequate controls and/or barriers. This Guide presents an analytical tree designed to prevent oversight of specific energy sources in risk identification. Hazard identification by field personnel is also discussed. Quantitative risk analysis is discussed in the following section. A method for summary of the risks for each energy classification is given. This method uses a graphical log-normal projection so that low probability events, which are not adequately represented in the experience data, are included in the risk assessment. This permits a more acceptable risk assessment since catastrophes are not ignored, even though the actual risk is only approximated. In addition, a few examples of risk analysis of specific hazards are given. Rudimentary probability and fault tree theory are used in these examples. Total risk assessment and resource allocation and safety performance trend analysis are discussed

The @RISK Study: Risk communication for patients with type 2 diabetes: design of a randomised controlled trial.

Science.gov (United States)

Welschen, Laura M C; Bot, Sandra D M; Dekker, Jacqueline M; Timmermans, Daniëlle R M; van der Weijden, Trudy; Nijpels, Giel

2010-08-05

Patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) have an increased risk to develop severe diabetes related complications, especially cardiovascular disease (CVD). The risk to develop CVD can be estimated by means of risk formulas. However, patients have difficulties to understand the outcomes of these formulas. As a result, they may not recognize the importance of changing lifestyle and taking medication in time. Therefore, it is important to develop risk communication methods, that will improve the patients' understanding of risks associated with having diabetes, which enables them to make informed choices about their diabetes care.The aim of this study is to investigate the effects of an intervention focussed on the communication of the absolute 10-year risk to develop CVD on risk perception, attitude and intention to change lifestyle behaviour in patients with T2DM. The conceptual framework of the intervention is based on the Theory of Planned Behaviour and the Self-regulation Theory. A randomised controlled trial will be performed in the Diabetes Care System West-Friesland (DCS), a managed care system. Newly referred T2DM patients of the DCS, younger than 75 years will be eligible for the study. The intervention group will be exposed to risk communication on CVD, on top of standard managed care of the DCS. This intervention consists of a simple explanation on the causes and consequences of CVD, and possibilities for prevention. The probabilities of CVD in 10 year will be explained in natural frequencies and visualised by a population diagram. The control group will receive standard managed care. The primary outcome is appropriateness of risk perception. Secondary outcomes are attitude and intention to change lifestyle behaviour and illness perception. Differences between baseline and follow-up (2 and 12 weeks) between groups will be analysed according to the intention-to-treat principle. The study was powered on 120 patients in each group. This innovative risk

A conditional extreme value theory approach in value-at-risk forecasting: Evidence from Southeastern Europe and USA market

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Totić Selena

2015-01-01

Full Text Available As a consequence of the recent financial crisis, the adequacy of different Value-at-Risk (VaR methodologies was heavily questioned. Current practice in VaR assessment relies on modeling the whole distribution of returns. As an alternative, in this paper we model tail behavior of returns, and thus VaR, using conditional Extreme Value Theory (EVT, which combines EVT and GARCH methodology. Moreover, we examine the performance of conditional EVT with the daily returns of seven stock market indices, of which six are from Southeastern Europe (BelexLine, BET, BUX, CROBEX, SBITOP, SOFIX from the period of September 2004 - April 2013, and one from USA market (Standard&Poors 500 Index from the period January 1998 - April 2013. Backtesting of historical daily returns proves that conditional EVT model gives good predictions for all indices and for all confidence levels.

Defending Against Advanced Persistent Threats Using Game-Theory.

Science.gov (United States)

Rass, Stefan; König, Sandra; Schauer, Stefan

2017-01-01

Advanced persistent threats (APT) combine a variety of different attack forms ranging from social engineering to technical exploits. The diversity and usual stealthiness of APT turns them into a central problem of contemporary practical system security, since information on attacks, the current system status or the attacker's incentives is often vague, uncertain and in many cases even unavailable. Game theory is a natural approach to model the conflict between the attacker and the defender, and this work investigates a generalized class of matrix games as a risk mitigation tool for an advanced persistent threat (APT) defense. Unlike standard game and decision theory, our model is tailored to capture and handle the full uncertainty that is immanent to APTs, such as disagreement among qualitative expert risk assessments, unknown adversarial incentives and uncertainty about the current system state (in terms of how deeply the attacker may have penetrated into the system's protective shells already). Practically, game-theoretic APT models can be derived straightforwardly from topological vulnerability analysis, together with risk assessments as they are done in common risk management standards like the ISO 31000 family. Theoretically, these models come with different properties than classical game theoretic models, whose technical solution presented in this work may be of independent interest.

The importance of risk-aversion as a measurable psychological parameter governing risk-taking behaviour

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thomas, P J

2013-01-01

A utility function with risk-aversion as its sole parameter is developed and used to examine the well-known psychological phenomenon, whereby risk averse people adopt behavioural strategies that are extreme and apparently highly risky. The pioneering work of the psychologist, John W. Atkinson, is revisited, and utility theory is used to extend his mathematical model. His explanation of the psychology involved is improved by regarding risk-aversion not as a discrete variable with three possible states: risk averse, risk neutral and risk confident, but as continuous and covering a large range. A probability distribution is derived, the m otivational density , to describe the process of selecting tasks of different degrees of difficulty. An assessment is then made of practicable methods for measuring risk-aversion

The importance of risk-aversion as a measurable psychological parameter governing risk-taking behaviour

Science.gov (United States)

Thomas, P. J.

2013-09-01

A utility function with risk-aversion as its sole parameter is developed and used to examine the well-known psychological phenomenon, whereby risk averse people adopt behavioural strategies that are extreme and apparently highly risky. The pioneering work of the psychologist, John W. Atkinson, is revisited, and utility theory is used to extend his mathematical model. His explanation of the psychology involved is improved by regarding risk-aversion not as a discrete variable with three possible states: risk averse, risk neutral and risk confident, but as continuous and covering a large range. A probability distribution is derived, the "motivational density", to describe the process of selecting tasks of different degrees of difficulty. An assessment is then made of practicable methods for measuring risk-aversion.

Adolescents' AIDS Risk Taking: A Rational Choice Perspective.

Science.gov (United States)

Gardner, William; Herman, Janna

1990-01-01

Discounts the belief in adolescents' irrational behavior, and proposes a rational choice decision-making theory of adolescent risk-taking behavior. Suggests that social ecology affects risk-taking choices. Proposals for AIDS education concern delayed initiation of sexual activity, promotion of condom use, and counseling of high-risk adolescents.…

Comprehensive risk assessment method of catastrophic accident based on complex network properties

Science.gov (United States)

Cui, Zhen; Pang, Jun; Shen, Xiaohong

2017-09-01

On the macro level, the structural properties of the network and the electrical characteristics of the micro components determine the risk of cascading failures. And the cascading failures, as a process with dynamic development, not only the direct risk but also potential risk should be considered. In this paper, comprehensively considered the direct risk and potential risk of failures based on uncertain risk analysis theory and connection number theory, quantified uncertain correlation by the node degree and node clustering coefficient, then established a comprehensive risk indicator of failure. The proposed method has been proved by simulation on the actual power grid. Modeling a network according to the actual power grid, and verified the rationality of the proposed method.

Business risks, functions, methods of assessment and ways to reduce risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A.V. Mihalchuk

2015-06-01

Full Text Available For successful existence in a market economy entrepreneur have to take bold actions, and this increases the risk. The article describes the concept of entrepreneurship and business risk, positive and negative aspects of functions of risk in business. Therefore, it is necessary to assess the risk properly and be able to manage it to achieve the most effective results in the market. In market conditions the problem of assessing and accounting market becomes independent theoretical and practical significance as an important component of the theory and practice of management. Risk - a key element of business activities. Development of risk situations can lead to both the occurrence of adverse effects (losses, lost profits, and positive results for a company in the form of increased profit. This article describes: the concept of entrepreneurship, risk and business risks, characteristic of positive and negative aspects of risk functions in business, methods of assessment and risk reduction, shows formulae and examples you can use to assess risk in an enterprise. Analyzing already established methods of risk assessment a number of rules were proposed in order to reduce business risk.

Issues of the economic risks theory under direct taxation

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Vyacheslav Aleksandrovich Slavin

2015-09-01

Full Text Available Objective to calculate and justify the probabilistic characteristics of the economic risks of the company selling goods with profit and suffering from the burden of direct taxation. The economic nature and mechanisms of tax risks are described. Methods probabilisticdynamic method based on a few mathematically formulated principles ndash probability principle the principle of measurement etc. The method allows to find the optimal distributions of the phase variables components of the decisions vector of the production system numerical characteristics of which mathematical expectation variance covariance etc. bear the necessary information about the optimal properties of the economic actorsrsquobehavior. Results the basic equation of probabilisticdynamic method ndash the SchrodingerBellman equation ndash was integratedthe function of state was found the normal distribution was obtained of the vector of economic decisions in the phase space of the firm. The phase trajectories and the effective areas of the variables dispersion phase were researched. It is shown that at the intersection of the variation areas of normal distributions corresponding to two different production conditions there is a possibility of spontaneous transitions between these states accompanied by losses of capital assets of the company. The transition probabilities and the expression for average losses of working capital were calculated. It is shown that the inclusion of weak field tax perturbation leads to the modulation of the probability curves and average losses obtained earlier in the work by V.A. Slavin and I.N. Urusova quotMarket dynamics of productioneconomic system. 2. Transitions between production conditions. Elements of risks theoryquot for the company in the absence of taxation. The author outlines the nature of modulation of the main characteristics of tax risks related to the fact that the tax field influences the production system by phase trajectories

Attitudes towards risk in financial decision making

OpenAIRE

Vieira, Pedro Nuno Rino Carreira

2016-01-01

Doutoramento em Gestão Risk and attitudes towards risk play a central role in several areas such as economics and psychology. Interestingly, in economics risk attitudes are addressed under the umbrella of the Utility Theory, while in psychology they are measured by psychometric scales. Risk attitudes in financial decision making are here studied under both approaches with the concern of understanding how they are related. So, I propose a conceptual model that explains risk attitudes, I ...

Testing rank-dependent utility theory for health outcomes.

Science.gov (United States)

Oliver, Adam

2003-10-01

Systematic violations of expected utility theory (EU) have been reported in the context of both money and health outcomes. Rank-dependent utility theory (RDU) is currently the most popular and influential alternative theory of choice under circumstances of risk. This paper reports a test of the descriptive performance of RDU compared to EU in the context of health. When one of the options is certain, violations of EU that can be explained by RDU are found. When both options are risky, no evidence that RDU is a descriptive improvement over EU is found, though this finding may be due to the low power of the tests. Copyright 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A Comparative Analysis of Value at Risk Measurement on Emerging Stock Markets: Case of Montenegro

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Cerović Julija

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Background: The concept of value at risk gives estimation of the maximum loss of financial position at a given time for a given probability. The motivation for this analysis lies in the desire to devote necessary attention to risks in Montenegro, and to approach to quantifying and managing risk more thoroughly. Objectives: This paper considers adequacy of the most recent approaches for quantifying market risk, especially of methods that are in the basis of extreme value theory, in Montenegrin emerging market before and during the global financial crisis. In particular, the purpose of the paper is to investigate whether extreme value theory outperforms econometric and quantile evaluation of VaR in emerging stock markets such as Montenegrin market. Methods/Approach: Daily return of Montenegrin stock market index MONEX20 is analyzed for the period January, 2004 - February, 2014. Value at Risk results based on GARCH models, quantile estimation and extreme value theory are compared. Results: Results of the empirical analysis show that the assessments of Value at Risk based on extreme value theory outperform econometric and quantile evaluations. Conclusions: It is obvious that econometric evaluations (ARMA(2,0- GARCH(1,1 and RiskMetrics proved to be on the lower bound of possible Value at Risk movements. Risk estimation on emerging markets can be focused on methodology using extreme value theory that is more sophisticated as it has been proven to be the most cautious model when dealing with turbulent times and financial turmoil.

Development of a Theory-Based Intervention to Increase Clinical Measurement of Reactive Balance in Adults at Risk of Falls.

Science.gov (United States)

Sibley, Kathryn M; Brooks, Dina; Gardner, Paula; Janaudis-Ferreira, Tania; McGlynn, Mandy; OʼHoski, Sachi; McEwen, Sara; Salbach, Nancy M; Shaffer, Jennifer; Shing, Paula; Straus, Sharon E; Jaglal, Susan B

2016-04-01

Effective balance reactions are essential for avoiding falls, but are not regularly measured by physical therapists. Physical therapists report wanting to improve reactive balance assessment, and theory-based approaches are recommended as the foundation for the development of interventions. This article describes how a behavior change theory for health care providers, the theoretical domains framework (TDF), was used to develop an intervention to increase reactive balance measurement among physical therapists who work in rehabilitation settings and treat adults who are at risk of falls. We employed published recommendations for using the TDF-guided intervention development. We identified what health care provider behavior is in need of change, relevant barriers and facilitators, strategies to address them, and how we would measure behavior change. In this case, identifying strategies required selecting both a reactive balance measure and behavior change techniques. Previous research had determined that physical therapists need to increase reactive balance measurement, and identified barriers and facilitators that corresponded to 8 TDF domains. A published review informed the selection of the Balance Evaluation Systems Test (Reactive Postural Responses Section) as addressing the barriers and facilitators, and existing research informed the selection of 9 established behavior change techniques corresponding to each identified TDF domain. The TDF framework were incorporated into a 12-month intervention with interactive group sessions, local champions, and health record modifications. Intervention effect can be evaluated using health record abstraction, questionnaires, and qualitative semistructured interviews. Although future research will evaluate the intervention in a controlled study, the process of theory-based intervention development can be applied to other rehabilitation research contexts, maximizing the impact of this work.Video Abstract is available for more

Small Stakes Risk Aversion in the Laboratory

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Harrison, Glenn W.; Lau, Morten; Ross, Don

Evidence of risk aversion in laboratory settings over small stakes leads to a priori implausible levels of risk aversion over large stakes under certain assumptions. One core assumption in standard statements of this calibration puzzle is that individuals define utility over terminal wealth......, and that terminal wealth is defined as the sum of extra-lab wealth and any wealth accumulated in the lab. This assumption is often used in Expected Utility Theory, as well as popular alternatives such as RankDependent Utility theory. Another core assumption is that the small-stakes risk aversion is observed over...... all levels of wealth, or over a “sufficiently large” range of wealth. Although this second assumption if often viewed as self-evident from the vast experimental literature showing risk aversion over laboratory stakes, it actually requires that lab wealth be varied for a given subject as one takes...

Beck's cognitive theory and the response style theory of depression in adolescents with and without mild to borderline intellectual disability.

Science.gov (United States)

Weeland, Martine M; Nijhof, Karin S; Otten, R; Vermaes, Ignace P R; Buitelaar, Jan K

2017-10-01

This study tests the validity of Beck's cognitive theory and Nolen-Hoeksema's response style theory of depression in adolescents with and without MBID. The relationship between negative cognitive errors (Beck), response styles (Nolen-Hoeksema) and depressive symptoms was examined in 135 adolescents using linear regression. The cognitive error 'underestimation of the ability to cope' was more prevalent among adolescents with MBID than among adolescents with average intelligence. This was the only negative cognitive error that predicted depressive symptoms. There were no differences between groups in the prevalence of the three response styles. In line with the theory, ruminating was positively and problem-solving was negatively related to depressive symptoms. Distractive response styles were not related to depressive symptoms. The relationship between response styles, cognitive errors and depressive symptoms were similar for both groups. The main premises of both theories of depression are equally applicable to adolescents with and without MBID. The cognitive error 'Underestimation of the ability to cope' poses a specific risk factor for developing a depression for adolescents with MBID and requires special attention in treatment and prevention of depression. WHAT THIS PAPER ADDS?: Despite the high prevalence of depression among adolescents with MBID, little is known about the etiology and cognitive processes that play a role in the development of depression in this group. The current paper fills this gap in research by examining the core tenets of two important theories on the etiology of depression (Beck's cognitive theory and Nolen-Hoeksema's response style theory) in a clinical sample of adolescents with and without MBID. This paper demonstrated that the theories are equally applicable to adolescents with MBID, as to adolescents with average intellectual ability. However, the cognitive bias 'underestimation of the ability to cope' was the only cognitive error

A "Toy" Model for Operational Risk Quantification using Credibility Theory

OpenAIRE

Hans B\\"uhlmann; Pavel V. Shevchenko; Mario V. W\\"uthrich

2009-01-01

To meet the Basel II regulatory requirements for the Advanced Measurement Approaches in operational risk, the bank's internal model should make use of the internal data, relevant external data, scenario analysis and factors reflecting the business environment and internal control systems. One of the unresolved challenges in operational risk is combining of these data sources appropriately. In this paper we focus on quantification of the low frequency high impact losses exceeding some high thr...

Young Children’s Risk-Taking: Mothers’ Authoritarian Parenting Predicts Risk-Taking by Daughters but Not Sons

OpenAIRE

Wood, Erin E.; Kennison, Shelia M.

2017-01-01

We investigated how mothers’ parenting behaviors and personal characteristics were related to risk-taking by young children. We tested contrasting predictions from evolutionary and social role theories with the former predicting higher risk-taking by boys compared to girls and the latter predicting that mothers would influence children’s gender role development with risk-taking occurring more in children parented with higher levels of harshness (i.e., authoritarian parenting style). In our st...

Actuarial Evaluation of Pension Risks of Russia: from Theory to Practice

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aleksandr Anatolyevich Kuklin

2017-09-01

Full Text Available The article discusses the origins of the development of pension systems in the world, shows the causes of the emergence of various models of public pension provision. We pay a particular attention to the history of the formation of the Russian pension system, and analyse the stages and causes of modern reform. From the position of modern legislation, we systemise the forms, types of pension provision and pension insurance in the Russian Federation from the point of view of the sources of financing and subjects of pension relations. The authors have defined the concept of “actuarial evaluation” from the point of view of the process and system approach. We have revealed the content of the pension risk category, as well as classified the pension risks by the spheres of origin. The authors have developed the methodology of actuarial estimation of the risks of the pension system classified by different criteria: demographic, economic, financial, labor risks. The proposed methodological approach to the evaluation of pension risks is based on the comprehensive assessment of socio-economic indicators and the identification of dependencies between socio-demographic and economic processes in the pension system and economy of the country. The authors have tested the developed tools on the actuarial estimation of the pension risks of the Russian Federation. The article presents the results of calculations and identifies critical risks for the Russian pension system. We have proved that stagnation processes in the economy and a high share of the shadow economy represent the greatest threat to the Russian pension system in the short term, whereas, the aging of the population and the increase in life expectancy — in the long term.

Risk of co-occuring psychopathology: testing a prediction of expectancy theory.

Science.gov (United States)

Capron, Daniel W; Norr, Aaron M; Schmidt, Norman B

2013-01-01

Despite the high impact of anxiety sensitivity (AS; a fear of anxiety related sensations) research, almost no research attention has been paid to its parent theory, Reiss' expectancy theory (ET). ET has gone largely unexamined to this point, including the prediction that AS is a better predictor of number of fears than current anxiety. To test Reiss' prediction, we used a large (N = 317) clinical sample of anxiety outpatients. Specifically, we examined whether elevated AS predicted number of comorbid anxiety and non-anxiety disorder diagnoses in this sample. Consistent with ET, findings indicated that AS predicted number of comorbid anxiety disorder diagnoses above and beyond current anxiety symptoms. Also, AS did not predict the number of comorbid non-anxiety diagnoses when current anxiety symptoms were accounted for. These findings represent an important examination of a prediction of Reiss' ET and are consistent with the idea that AS may be a useful transdiagnostic treatment target. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Incorporating Contagion in Portfolio Credit Risk Models Using Network Theory

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ioannis Anagnostou

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Portfolio credit risk models estimate the range of potential losses due to defaults or deteriorations in credit quality. Most of these models perceive default correlation as fully captured by the dependence on a set of common underlying risk factors. In light of empirical evidence, the ability of such a conditional independence framework to accommodate for the occasional default clustering has been questioned repeatedly. Thus, financial institutions have relied on stressed correlations or alternative copulas with more extreme tail dependence. In this paper, we propose a different remedy—augmenting systematic risk factors with a contagious default mechanism which affects the entire universe of credits. We construct credit stress propagation networks and calibrate contagion parameters for infectious defaults. The resulting framework is implemented on synthetic test portfolios wherein the contagion effect is shown to have a significant impact on the tails of the loss distributions.

Mapping between Classical Risk Management and Game Theoretical Approaches

OpenAIRE

Rajbhandari , Lisa; Snekkenes , Einar ,

2011-01-01

Part 2: Work in Progress; International audience; In a typical classical risk assessment approach, the probabilities are usually guessed and not much guidance is provided on how to get the probabilities right. When coming up with probabilities, people are generally not well calibrated. History may not always be a very good teacher. Hence, in this paper, we explain how game theory can be integrated into classical risk management. Game theory puts emphasis on collecting representative data on h...

A General Framework for Portfolio Theory—Part I: Theory and Various Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stanislaus Maier-Paape

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Utility and risk are two often competing measurements on the investment success. We show that efficient trade-off between these two measurements for investment portfolios happens, in general, on a convex curve in the two-dimensional space of utility and risk. This is a rather general pattern. The modern portfolio theory of Markowitz (1959 and the capital market pricing model Sharpe (1964, are special cases of our general framework when the risk measure is taken to be the standard deviation and the utility function is the identity mapping. Using our general framework, we also recover and extend the results in Rockafellar et al. (2006, which were already an extension of the capital market pricing model to allow for the use of more general deviation measures. This generalized capital asset pricing model also applies to e.g., when an approximation of the maximum drawdown is considered as a risk measure. Furthermore, the consideration of a general utility function allows for going beyond the “additive” performance measure to a “multiplicative” one of cumulative returns by using the log utility. As a result, the growth optimal portfolio theory Lintner (1965 and the leverage space portfolio theory Vince (2009 can also be understood and enhanced under our general framework. Thus, this general framework allows a unification of several important existing portfolio theories and goes far beyond. For simplicity of presentation, we phrase all for a finite underlying probability space and a one period market model, but generalizations to more complex structures are straightforward.

VALUE AT RISK - CORPORATE RISK MEASUREMENT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anis Cecilia-Nicoleta

2011-12-01

Full Text Available The notion of 'risk' is used in a number of sciences. The Faculty of Law studies the risk depending on its legality. The Accident Theory applies this term to describe the damage and the disasters. One can find studies on the risks in the works of psychology, philosophy, medicine and within each of these areas the study of the risk is based on the given science subject and, of course, on their methods and approaches. Such a variety of risk study is explained by the diversity of this phenomenon. Under the market economy conditions, the risk is an essential component of any economic agent management policy, of the approach developed by this one, a strategy that depends almost entirely on individual ability and capacity to anticipate his evolution and to exploit his opportunities, assuming a so-called 'risk of business failure.' There are several ways to measure the risks in projects, one of the most used methods to measure this being the Value at Risk(VaR. Value at Risk (VaR was made famous by JP Morgan in the mid 1990s, by introducing the RiskMetrics approach, and hence, by far, has been sanctioned by several Governing Bodies throughout the world bank. In short, it measures the value of risk capital stocks in a given period at a certain probability of loss. This measurement can be modified for risk applications through, for example, the potential loss values affirmation in a certain amount of time during the economic life of the project- clearly, a project with a lower VaR is better. It should be noted that it is not always possible or advisable for a company to limit itself to the remote analysis of each risk because the risks and their effects are interdependent and constitute a system .In addition, there are risks which, in combination with other risks, tend to produce effects which they would not have caused by themselves and risks that tend to offset and even cancel each other out.

Finalurile enesciene, de la „încununarea operei” la modelarea percepţiei timpului muzical

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Constantin Secară

2009-12-01

Full Text Available The continuous and simultaneous shaping of articulated space and time is a defining feature of Enescu’s style. Although many, the phenomenological, archetypal, stylistical and aesthetic studies of the composer’s work, either globally or punctually, still leave room for interpretation and analyses of Enescu’s complex language. This article is an analytical approach of George Enescu’s representative opuses, from the point of view of time perception in their finales. The analysis centers on the endings’ structural typology and their reverberation in the perception and memory of the audience. The characteristics and models of musical time (continuity/discontinuity, density, horizontal/vertical thrust a.s.o., along with the use of formal patterns that distinguish Enescu’s works as they give a musical-spatial dimension to the sound material are emphasised as the two poles of an energetic relationship between reason and emotion in the characterology of Enescu’s musical output. The conclusions bring out the importance of the new studies of Enescu’s work, constructed from a fresh perspective that matches the freshness of his music, which in Pascal Bentoiu’s words, “through the coagulation of artistic moments, still awaits the encounter with the listeners’ understanding and sensitivity”.

CO_2 volatility impact on energy portfolio choice: A fully stochastic LCOE theory analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lucheroni, Carlo; Mari, Carlo

2017-01-01

Highlights: • Stochastic LCOE theory is an extension of the levelized cost of electricity analysis. • The fully stochastic analysis include stochastic processes for fossil fuels prices and CO_2 prices. • The nuclear asset is risky through uncertainty about construction times and it is used as a hedge. • Volatility of CO_2 prices has a strong influence on CO_2 emissions reduction. - Abstract: Market based pricing of CO_2 was designed to control CO_2 emissions by means of the price level, since high CO_2 price levels discourage emissions. In this paper, it will be shown that the level of uncertainty on CO_2 market prices, i.e. the volatility of CO_2 prices itself, has a strong influence not only on generation portfolio risk management but also on CO_2 emissions abatement. A reduction of emissions can be obtained when rational power generation capacity investors decide that the capacity expansion cost risk induced jointly by CO_2 volatility and fossil fuels prices volatility can be efficiently hedged adding to otherwise fossil fuel portfolios some nuclear power as a carbon free asset. This intriguing effect will be discussed using a recently introduced economic analysis tool, called stochastic LCOE theory. The stochastic LCOE theory used here was designed to investigate diversification effects on energy portfolios. In previous papers this theory was used to study diversification effects on portfolios composed of carbon risky fossil technologies and a carbon risk-free nuclear technology in a risk-reward trade-off frame. In this paper the stochastic LCOE theory will be extended to include uncertainty about nuclear power plant construction times, i.e. considering nuclear risky as well, this being the main uncertainty source of financial risk in nuclear technology. Two measures of risk will be used, standard deviation and CVaR deviation, to derive efficient frontiers for generation portfolios. Frontier portfolios will be analyzed in their implications on emissions

Decision making under time pressure, modeled in a prospect theory framework

Science.gov (United States)

Young, Diana L.; Goodie, Adam S.; Hall, Daniel B.; Wu, Eric

2012-01-01

The current research examines the effects of time pressure on decision behavior based on a prospect theory framework. In Experiments 1 and 2, participants estimated certainty equivalents for binary gains-only bets in the presence or absence of time pressure. In Experiment 3, participants assessed comparable bets that were framed as losses. Data were modeled to establish psychological mechanisms underlying decision behavior. In Experiments 1 and 2, time pressure led to increased risk attractiveness, but no significant differences emerged in either probability discriminability or outcome utility. In Experiment 3, time pressure reduced probability discriminability, which was coupled with severe risk-seeking behavior for both conditions in the domain of losses. No significant effects of control over outcomes were observed. Results provide qualified support for theories that suggest increased risk-seeking for gains under time pressure. PMID:22711977

Uncertainties and reliability theories for reactor safety

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Veneziano, D.

1975-01-01

What makes the safety problem of nuclear reactors particularly challenging is the demand for high levels of reliability and the limitation of statistical information. The latter is an unfortunate circumstance, which forces deductive theories of reliability to use models and parameter values with weak factual support. The uncertainty about probabilistic models and parameters which are inferred from limited statistical evidence can be quantified and incorporated rationally into inductive theories of reliability. In such theories, the starting point is the information actually available, as opposed to an estimated probabilistic model. But, while the necessity of introducing inductive uncertainty into reliability theories has been recognized by many authors, no satisfactory inductive theory is presently available. The paper presents: a classification of uncertainties and of reliability models for reactor safety; a general methodology to include these uncertainties into reliability analysis; a discussion about the relative advantages and the limitations of various reliability theories (specifically, of inductive and deductive, parametric and nonparametric, second-moment and full-distribution theories). For example, it is shown that second-moment theories, which were originally suggested to cope with the scarcity of data, and which have been proposed recently for the safety analysis of secondary containment vessels, are the least capable of incorporating statistical uncertainty. The focus is on reliability models for external threats (seismic accelerations and tornadoes). As an application example, the effect of statistical uncertainty on seismic risk is studied using parametric full-distribution models

φq-field theory for portfolio optimization: “fat tails” and nonlinear correlations

Science.gov (United States)

Sornette, D.; Simonetti, P.; Andersen, J. V.

2000-08-01

Physics and finance are both fundamentally based on the theory of random walks (and their generalizations to higher dimensions) and on the collective behavior of large numbers of correlated variables. The archetype examplifying this situation in finance is the portfolio optimization problem in which one desires to diversify on a set of possibly dependent assets to optimize the return and minimize the risks. The standard mean-variance solution introduced by Markovitz and its subsequent developments is basically a mean-field Gaussian solution. It has severe limitations for practical applications due to the strongly non-Gaussian structure of distributions and the nonlinear dependence between assets. Here, we present in details a general analytical characterization of the distribution of returns for a portfolio constituted of assets whose returns are described by an arbitrary joint multivariate distribution. In this goal, we introduce a non-linear transformation that maps the returns onto Gaussian variables whose covariance matrix provides a new measure of dependence between the non-normal returns, generalizing the covariance matrix into a nonlinear covariance matrix. This nonlinear covariance matrix is chiseled to the specific fat tail structure of the underlying marginal distributions, thus ensuring stability and good conditioning. The portfolio distribution is then obtained as the solution of a mapping to a so-called φq field theory in particle physics, of which we offer an extensive treatment using Feynman diagrammatic techniques and large deviation theory, that we illustrate in details for multivariate Weibull distributions. The interaction (non-mean field) structure in this field theory is a direct consequence of the non-Gaussian nature of the distribution of asset price returns. We find that minimizing the portfolio variance (i.e. the relatively “small” risks) may often increase the large risks, as measured by higher normalized cumulants. Extensive

Linking indices for biodiversity monitoring to extinction risk theory.

Science.gov (United States)

McCarthy, Michael A; Moore, Alana L; Krauss, Jochen; Morgan, John W; Clements, Christopher F

2014-12-01

Biodiversity indices often combine data from different species when used in monitoring programs. Heuristic properties can suggest preferred indices, but we lack objective ways to discriminate between indices with similar heuristics. Biodiversity indices can be evaluated by determining how well they reflect management objectives that a monitoring program aims to support. For example, the Convention on Biological Diversity requires reporting about extinction rates, so simple indices that reflect extinction risk would be valuable. We developed 3 biodiversity indices that are based on simple models of population viability that relate extinction risk to abundance. We based the first index on the geometric mean abundance of species and the second on a more general power mean. In a third index, we integrated the geometric mean abundance and trend. These indices require the same data as previous indices, but they also relate directly to extinction risk. Field data for butterflies and woodland plants and experimental studies of protozoan communities show that the indices correlate with local extinction rates. Applying the index based on the geometric mean to global data on changes in avian abundance suggested that the average extinction probability of birds has increased approximately 1% from 1970 to 2009. © 2014 The Authors. Conservation Biology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc., on behalf of the Society for Conservation Biology.

Uncertainty: lotteries and risk

OpenAIRE

Ávalos, Eloy

2011-01-01

In this paper we develop the theory of uncertainty in a context where the risks assumed by the individual are measurable and manageable. We primarily use the definition of lottery to formulate the axioms of the individual's preferences, and its representation through the utility function von Neumann - Morgenstern. We study the expected utility theorem and its properties, the paradoxes of choice under uncertainty and finally the measures of risk aversion with monetary lotteries.

TREATING UNCERTAINTIES IN A NUCLEAR SEISMIC PROBABILISTIC RISK ASSESSMENT BY MEANS OF THE DEMPSTER-SHAFER THEORY OF EVIDENCE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

CHUNG-KUNG LO

2014-02-01

Full Text Available The analyses carried out within the Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessments (SPRAs of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs are affected by significant aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. These uncertainties have to be represented and quantified coherently with the data, information and knowledge available, to provide reasonable assurance that related decisions can be taken robustly and with confidence. The amount of data, information and knowledge available for seismic risk assessment is typically limited, so that the analysis must strongly rely on expert judgments. In this paper, a Dempster-Shafer Theory (DST framework for handling uncertainties in NPP SPRAs is proposed and applied to an example case study. The main contributions of this paper are two: (i applying the complete DST framework to SPRA models, showing how to build the Dempster-Shafer structures of the uncertainty parameters based on industry generic data, and (ii embedding Bayesian updating based on plant specific data into the framework. The results of the application to a case study show that the approach is feasible and effective in (i describing and jointly propagating aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in SPRA models and (ii providing ‘conservative’ bounds on the safety quantities of interest (i.e. Core Damage Frequency, CDF that reflect the (limited state of knowledge of the experts about the system of interest.

Intelligence: Pre-Theory and Post-Theory

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

James R. Flynn

2014-02-01

Full Text Available Defining “intelligence” exemplifies a mistake that has historical precedent: confusing the role of pre-theory and post-theory definitions. In every area, pre-theory concepts give broad directions for investigation: are the movements of heavenly bodies affected by the existence of other heavenly bodies? Post-theory concepts add precision and predictability. The mistake occurs when a successful theory like Newton’s demands that its peculiar and precise theory-imbedded concept forbids competing theories: Einstein was impossible (warping of space so long as it was assumed that all theories must be in accord with Newton’s concept (attraction across space. In psychology, Arthur Jensen made the same mistake. He gave his theory-embedded concept of g the role of executioner: the significance of every phenomenon had to be interpreted by its compatibility with g; and thus trivialized the significance of IQ gains over time. This is only one instance of a perennial demand: give us a precise definition of “intelligence” to guide our research. However, precision comes after research has generated a theory and its very precision stifles competing research. Be happy with a broad definition on the pre-theory level that lets many competing theories bloom: pre-theory precision equals post-theory poverty.

Familial risks in testicular cancer as aetiological clues.

Science.gov (United States)

Hemminki, Kari; Chen, Bowang

2006-02-01

We used the nationwide Swedish Family-Cancer Database to analyse the risk for testicular cancer in offspring through parental and sibling probands. Among 0 to 70-year-old offspring, 4,586 patients had testicular cancer. Standardized incidence ratios for familial risk were 3.8-fold when a father and 7.6-fold when a brother had testicular cancer. Testicular cancer was associated with leukaemia, distal colon and kidney cancer, melanoma, connective tissue tumours and lung cancer in families. Non-seminoma was associated with maternal lung cancer but the risk was highest for the late-onset cases, providing no support to the theory of the in utero effect of maternal smoking on the son's risk of testicular cancer. However, the theory cannot be excluded but should be taken up for study when further data are available on maternal smoking. The high familial risk may be the product of shared childhood environment and heritable causes.

Making Decisions about an Educational Game, Simulation or Workshop: A 'Game Theory' Perspective.

Science.gov (United States)

Cryer, Patricia

1988-01-01

Uses game theory to help practitioners make decisions about educational games, simulations, or workshops whose outcomes depend to some extent on chance. Highlights include principles for making decisions involving risk; elementary laws of probability; utility theory; and principles for making decisions involving uncertainty. (eight references)…

Strategic behavior and marriage payments: theory and evidence from Senegal.

Science.gov (United States)

Gaspart, Frederic; Platteau, Jean-Philippe

2010-01-01

This article proposes an original theory of marriage payments based on insights gained from firsthand information collected in the Senegal River valley. This theory postulates that decisions about the bride-price, which are made by the bride's father, take into account the likely effects of the amount set on the risk of ill-treatment of the wife and the risk of marriage failure. Based on a sequential game with three players (the bride's father, the husband, and the wife) and a matching process, it leads to a number of important predictions that are tested against Senegalese data relating to bride-prices and various characteristics of women. The empirical results confirm that parents behave strategically by keeping bride-prices down so as to reduce the risk of marriage failure for their daughters. Other interesting effects on marriage payments and the probability of separation are also highlighted, stressing the role of the bride's bargaining power in her own family.

Effect of goal attainment theory based education program on cardiovascular risks, behavioral modification, and quality of life among patients with first episode of acute myocardial infarction: Randomized study.

Science.gov (United States)

Park, Moonkyoung; Song, Rhayun; Jeong, Jin-Ok

2017-06-01

Effect of goal-attainment-theory-based education program on cardiovascular risks, behavioral modification, and quality of life among patients with first episode of acute myocardial infarction: randomized study BACKGROUND: The behavioral modification strategies should be explored at the time of admission to lead the maximum effect of cardiovascular risk management. This randomized study aimed to elucidate the effects of a nurse-led theory-based education program in individuals with a first episode of acute myocardial infarction on cardiovascular risks, health behaviors, and quality of life over 6 months. The study involved a convenience sample of 64 patients with acute myocardial infarction who were randomly assigned to either the education group or the control group. The goal-attainment-based education program was designed to set the mutually agreed goals of risk management and the behavioral modification strategies for achieving those goals. Those in the control group received routine management only. The participants in both groups were contacted at 6-8 weeks and at 6 months after discharge to measure outcome variables. Repeated measure ANOVA was conducted using SPSSWIN (version 20.0) to determine the significance of differences in outcome variables over 6 months between the groups. Both groups showed significant positive changes in cardiovascular risks, health behaviors, and quality of life over 6 months. The 2-year risk of cardiovascular disease was significantly reduced in both study groups, but with no significant interaction effect (F=2.01, p=0.142). The performance and maintenance of health behaviors (F=3.75, p=0.029) and the mental component of quality of life (F=4.03, p=0.020) were significantly better in the education group than the control group. Applying a goal-oriented education program at an early stage of hospital management improved and maintained blood glucose, health behaviors, and mental component of the quality of life up to six months in

Alterations in theory of mind in patients with schizophrenia and non-psychotic relatives.

Science.gov (United States)

Janssen, I; Krabbendam, L; Jolles, J; van Os, Jim

2003-08-01

It has been proposed that alterations in theory of mind underlie specific symptoms of psychosis. The present study examined whether alterations in theory of mind reflect a trait that can be detected in non-psychotic relatives of patients with schizophrenia. Participants were 43 patients with schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorder, 41 first-degree non-psychotic relatives and 43 controls from the general population. Theory of mind was assessed using a hinting task and a false-belief task. There was a significant association between schizophrenia risk and failure on the hinting task (OR linear trend = 2.01, 95% CI: 1.22-3.31), with relatives having intermediate values between patients and controls. Adjustment for IQ and neuropsychological factors reduced the association by small amounts. The association between schizophrenia risk and failure on the false-belief tasks was not significant. Changes in theory of mind are associated with schizophrenia liability. General cognitive ability and neuropsychological measures seem to mediate only part of this association.

The interpersonal theory of suicide and adolescent suicidal behavior.

Science.gov (United States)

Barzilay, S; Feldman, D; Snir, A; Apter, A; Carli, V; Hoven, C W; Wasserman, C; Sarchiapone, M; Wasserman, D

2015-09-01

Joiner's interpersonal theory of suicide (IPTS) proposes that suicide results from the combination of a perception of burdening others, social alienation, and the capability for self-harm. The theory gained some empirical support, however the overall model has yet to be tested. This study aimed to test the main predictions of IPTS in a large community sample of Israeli adolescents. 1196 Israeli Jewish and Arab high-school pupils participating in the SEYLE project completed a self-report questionnaire measuring perceived burdensomeness, thwarted belongingness, health risk behaviors, and non-suicidal self-injury (risk variables), and suicidal ideation and suicide attempts (outcome measures). The data were tested in cross-sectional regression models. Consistent with IPTS, perceived burdensomeness was found to interact with thwarted belongingness, predicting suicidal ideation. Depression mediated most of the effect of thwarted belongingness and perceived burdensomeness on suicidal ideation. Acquired capability for self-harm, as measured by health risk behaviors and direct non-suicidal self-injurious behaviors, predicted suicide attempt. However, this mechanism operated independently from ideation rather than in interaction with it, at variance with IPTS-based predictions. The cross-sectional design precludes conclusions about causality and directionality. Proxy measures were used to test the interpersonal theory constructs. The findings support some of the IPTS predictions but not all, and imply two separate pathways for suicidal behavior in adolescents: one related to internalizing psychopathology and the other to self-harm behaviors. This conceptualization has clinical implications for the differential identification of adolescents at risk for suicidal behavior and for the development of prevention strategies. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Existential risks: exploring a robust risk reduction strategy.

Science.gov (United States)

Jebari, Karim

2015-06-01

A small but growing number of studies have aimed to understand, assess and reduce existential risks, or risks that threaten the continued existence of mankind. However, most attention has been focused on known and tangible risks. This paper proposes a heuristic for reducing the risk of black swan extinction events. These events are, as the name suggests, stochastic and unforeseen when they happen. Decision theory based on a fixed model of possible outcomes cannot properly deal with this kind of event. Neither can probabilistic risk analysis. This paper will argue that the approach that is referred to as engineering safety could be applied to reducing the risk from black swan extinction events. It will also propose a conceptual sketch of how such a strategy may be implemented: isolated, self-sufficient, and continuously manned underground refuges. Some characteristics of such refuges are also described, in particular the psychosocial aspects. Furthermore, it is argued that this implementation of the engineering safety strategy safety barriers would be effective and plausible and could reduce the risk of an extinction event in a wide range of possible (known and unknown) scenarios. Considering the staggering opportunity cost of an existential catastrophe, such strategies ought to be explored more vigorously.

Statistics of extremes theory and applications

CERN Document Server

Beirlant, Jan; Segers, Johan; Teugels, Jozef; De Waal, Daniel; Ferro, Chris

2006-01-01

Research in the statistical analysis of extreme values has flourished over the past decade: new probability models, inference and data analysis techniques have been introduced; and new application areas have been explored. Statistics of Extremes comprehensively covers a wide range of models and application areas, including risk and insurance: a major area of interest and relevance to extreme value theory. Case studies are introduced providing a good balance of theory and application of each model discussed, incorporating many illustrated examples and plots of data. The last part of the book covers some interesting advanced topics, including  time series, regression, multivariate and Bayesian modelling of extremes, the use of which has huge potential.  

A Risk and Prevention Counselor Training Program Model: Theory and Practice

Science.gov (United States)

Mason, Michael J.; Nakkula, Michael J.

2008-01-01

The need for training mental health counselors in risk and prevention is presented, and justification of the development of an innovative and integrative prevention training program is offered. Theoretical underpinnings that connect the counseling discipline to the field of prevention are described. A risk and prevention training model from…

ABORDAREA PSIHOLINGVISTICĂ ŞI SOCIOLINGVISTICĂ A CONCEPTULUI EMOŢIE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Viorica LIFARI

2015-12-01

Full Text Available În ultimul timp categoria conceptuală a emoţiilor este cercetată în contextul studiilor interdisciplinare şi al celor interculturale. Atât în domeniul psihologiei, cât şi în cel al lingvisticii savanţii se împart în mai multe şcoli, bunăoară: reprezentanţii teoriei despre universalitatea emoţiilor şi cei care accentuează impactul sociocultural al dezvoltării şi cul­ti­vării categoriilor conceptuale ale emoţiilor în cadrul unei etnii sau culturi.În articolul de faţă autorul pune în discuţie opiniile savanţilor antropologi şi lingvişti cu privire la modelarea concep­tului de emoţie în cadrul unei culturi şi posibilitatea de a analiza acest concept prin prisma ambelor teorii: atât a celei de universalitate a conceptului de emoţie, cât şi a teoriei despre individualitatea acestuia. THE PSYCHO-LINGUISTIC AND SOCIO-LINGUISTIC APPROACH TO THE CONCEPT OF EMOTION The conceptual category of emotions has recently more often been studied on the cross-cultural level. This type of research has been done among both psychologists and linguists who are further representing different schools or ideas, as for example the adherents of the theory of universal emotions and those that emphasize the socio-cultural impact of the development of the concept of emotion within a certain ethnic community or culture.The article under discussion offers the reader the ideas and points of view of researchers in the field of psychology, anthropology and linguistics concerning the concept of emotions within a certain culture and the possibility to analyse the given concept through the prism of both theories: that of the universality of emotions on the one hand and that of the cultural specificity of emotion on the other one.

How politicians make decisions under risk: a political choice experiment

OpenAIRE

Enrique Fatás; Tibor Neugebauer; Pilar Tamborero

2004-01-01

We report on an experimental study with real-world politicians. These political experts face political choice problems under risk and probability. Thus, we test the frequently observed violations of rational choice theory -the reference point effect, loss aversion, framing effects, and the common ratio effect- with experts from the field. Their choices violate expected utility theory. Nevertheless, they appear to be more rational and less risk averse (loving) in the domain of gains (losses) t...

Theories and measures of elder abuse.

Science.gov (United States)

Abolfathi Momtaz, Yadollah; Hamid, Tengku Aizan; Ibrahim, Rahimah

2013-09-01

Elder abuse is a pervasive phenomenon around the world with devastating effects on the victims. Although it is not a new phenomenon, interest in examining elder abuse is relatively new. This paper aims to provide an overview of the aetiological theories and measures of elder abuse. The paper briefly reviews theories to explain causes of elder abuse and then discusses the most commonly used measures of elder abuse. Based on the reviewed theories, it can be concluded that elder abuse is a multifactorial problem that may affect elderly people from different backgrounds and involve a wide variety of potential perpetrators, including caregivers, adult children, and partners. The review of existing measurement instruments notes that many different screening and assessment instruments have been developed to identify elders who are at risk for or are victims of abuse. However, there is a real need for more measurements of elder abuse, as the current instruments are limited in scope. © 2013 The Authors. Psychogeriatrics © 2013 Japanese Psychogeriatric Society.

Risk communication: a mental models approach

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Morgan, M. Granger (Millett Granger)

2002-01-01

... information about risks. The procedure uses approaches from risk and decision analysis to identify the most relevant information; it also uses approaches from psychology and communication theory to ensure that its message is understood. This book is written in nontechnical terms, designed to make the approach feasible for anyone willing to try it. It is illustrat...

Hierarchical Bayesian parameter estimation for cumulative prospect theory

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Nilsson, H.; Rieskamp, J.; Wagenmakers, E.-J.

2011-01-01

Cumulative prospect theory (CPT Tversky & Kahneman, 1992) has provided one of the most influential accounts of how people make decisions under risk. CPT is a formal model with parameters that quantify psychological processes such as loss aversion, subjective values of gains and losses, and

M-Theory and Maximally Supersymmetric Gauge Theories

CERN Document Server

Lambert, Neil

2012-01-01

In this informal review for non-specalists we discuss the construction of maximally supersymmetric gauge theories that arise on the worldvolumes branes in String Theory and M-Theory. Particular focus is made on the relatively recent construction of M2-brane worldvolume theories. In a formal sense, the existence of these quantum field theories can be viewed as predictions of M-Theory. Their construction is therefore a reinforcement of the ideas underlying String Theory and M-Theory. We also briefly discuss the six-dimensional conformal field theory that is expected to arise on M5-branes. The construction of this theory is not only an important open problem for M-Theory but also a significant challenge to our current understanding of quantum field theory more generally.

Automatic Trading Agent. RMT Based Portfolio Theory and Portfolio Selection

Science.gov (United States)

Snarska, M.; Krzych, J.

2006-11-01

Portfolio theory is a very powerful tool in the modern investment theory. It is helpful in estimating risk of an investor's portfolio, arosen from lack of information, uncertainty and incomplete knowledge of reality, which forbids a perfect prediction of future price changes. Despite of many advantages this tool is not known and not widely used among investors on Warsaw Stock Exchange. The main reason for abandoning this method is a high level of complexity and immense calculations. The aim of this paper is to introduce an automatic decision-making system, which allows a single investor to use complex methods of Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT). The key tool in MPT is an analysis of an empirical covariance matrix. This matrix, obtained from historical data, biased by such a high amount of statistical uncertainty, that it can be seen as random. By bringing into practice the ideas of Random Matrix Theory (RMT), the noise is removed or significantly reduced, so the future risk and return are better estimated and controlled. These concepts are applied to the Warsaw Stock Exchange Simulator {http://gra.onet.pl}. The result of the simulation is 18% level of gains in comparison with respective 10% loss of the Warsaw Stock Exchange main index WIG.

Validation of psychoanalytic theories: towards a conceptualization of references.

Science.gov (United States)

Zachrisson, Anders; Zachrisson, Henrik Daae

2005-10-01

The authors discuss criteria for the validation of psychoanalytic theories and develop a heuristic and normative model of the references needed for this. Their core question in this paper is: can psychoanalytic theories be validated exclusively from within psychoanalytic theory (internal validation), or are references to sources of knowledge other than psychoanalysis also necessary (external validation)? They discuss aspects of the classic truth criteria correspondence and coherence, both from the point of view of contemporary psychoanalysis and of contemporary philosophy of science. The authors present arguments for both external and internal validation. Internal validation has to deal with the problems of subjectivity of observations and circularity of reasoning, external validation with the problem of relevance. They recommend a critical attitude towards psychoanalytic theories, which, by carefully scrutinizing weak points and invalidating observations in the theories, reduces the risk of wishful thinking. The authors conclude by sketching a heuristic model of validation. This model combines correspondence and coherence with internal and external validation into a four-leaf model for references for the process of validating psychoanalytic theories.

Correlates of hepatitis B virus health-related behaviors of Korean Americans: a situation-specific nursing theory.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Haeok; Fawcett, Jacqueline; Yang, Jin Hyang; Hann, Hie-Won

2012-12-01

The purpose of this article is to explain the evolution of a situation-specific theory developed to enhance understanding of health-related behaviors of Korean Americans (KAs) who have or are at risk for a chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection. The situation-specific theory evolved from an integration of the Network Episode Model, studies of health-related behaviors of people with HBV infection, and our studies of and practice experiences with Asian American individuals with HBV infection. The major concepts of the theory are sociocultural context, social network, individual-level factors, illness experience, and health-related behaviors. The major propositions of the theory are that sociocultural context, social network, and individual-level factors influence the illness experience, and that sociocultural context, social network, individual-level factors, and the illness experience influence health-related behaviors of KAs who have or are at risk for HBV infection. This situation-specific theory represents a translation of abstract concepts into clinical reality. The theory is an explanation of correlates of health-related HBV behaviors of KAs. The next step is to develop and test the effectiveness of a nursing intervention designed to promote behaviors that will enhance the health of KAs who have or are at risk for HBV infection, and that takes into account sociocultural context, social network, individual-level factors, and illness experience. © 2012 Sigma Theta Tau International.

Risk perception and control, an integration of the psychometric research paradigm and social psychology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haugen, K.

1998-01-01

Full text of publication follows: this paper argues that perceptual control is an essential component in human risk evaluation. Control is seen as an integrative concept between the psychometric research paradigm and various psychological theories. The psychometric approach to the study of risk has mainly dealt with the intuitive judgements people do when they are asked to evaluate risky activities and technologies. It shows that people judge risk in relation to the possible consequences and probabilities related to an outcome; the former more typical for the public and the latter more often used by experts. The psychometric research tradition has concentrated on doing human risk evaluations quantifiable and the reactions predictable. This paper also relates to possible practical implications of this strategy, namely that humans react heterogeneously to different kinds of threats due to perceived control. Theoretical ability to explain and elaborate perceptions of risk, as well as individual reactions, were the main criteria for the literature selection, which includes work on e.g. attribution theory, locus of control, and learned helplessness. Thus, the paper addresses available psychological views for a contribution to a developed theoretical framework for human risk evaluation. It seeks to compare and integrate the psychometric research tradition within social psychological theories. The way in which people find their informational basis for their risk judgements, either from others or from their own perceptions is also discussed. Furthermore, the theories are related to the social and psychological reactions of the Chernobyl accident. The paper concludes that psychological theories can contribute to a more comprehensive framework for the understanding of human risk evaluation, leading to a more coherent and integrative knowledge. (author)

Critiques of the risk concept

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nexøe, Jørgen; Halvorsen, Peder Andreas; Kristiansen, Ivar Sønbø

2007-01-01

The increasing use of the risk concept in healthcare has caused concern among medical doctors, especially general practitioners (GPs). Critics have claimed that risk identification and intervention create unfounded anxiety, that the concept of risk is not useful at the individual patient level, t...... useful for GPs, and in fact a key issue. It is concluded that risk critique should be based on sound theory and empirical data. Critics may do well in making clear distinctions between facts and value judgements......The increasing use of the risk concept in healthcare has caused concern among medical doctors, especially general practitioners (GPs). Critics have claimed that risk identification and intervention create unfounded anxiety, that the concept of risk is not useful at the individual patient level...... interests promote risk interventions, that patients may misunderstand risk information, and that risk information can cause unnecessary anxiety. The authors have found no empirical data on the amount of time primary healthcare providers spend on risk interventions, and have not identified any valid...

A Network Model of Credit Risk Contagion

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ting-Qiang Chen

2012-01-01

Full Text Available A network model of credit risk contagion is presented, in which the effect of behaviors of credit risk holders and the financial market regulators and the network structure are considered. By introducing the stochastic dominance theory, we discussed, respectively, the effect mechanisms of the degree of individual relationship, individual attitude to credit risk contagion, the individual ability to resist credit risk contagion, the monitoring strength of the financial market regulators, and the network structure on credit risk contagion. Then some derived and proofed propositions were verified through numerical simulations.

The contracting risks of nuclear power engineering and the risk management strategies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ding Shuying

2010-01-01

With the trend of professional operation on the nuclear power engineering (thereafter using NPE for short) construction, the companies specialized on NPE whole-contracting are established one after the other, the mode of NPE whole-contracting has been wide adopted domestically. As people always concern for the safety of nuclear power, the risks exposed to NPE contractors are also concerned with the operator, the NPE corporations and the society. Therefore, it is very meaningful to analyze on the risks exposed to NPE contractors and the strategies they should take, for it not only determines whether the NPE construction will be finished on time, but also related to sustainable development of the NPE contracting corporations. The main content of this paper includes the analysis on the features and advantages of NPE whole contracting, the major NPE contracting risks, such as nuclear safety risks, strategic risks, market risks, legal risks, financial risks and operation risks, and the strategies to prevent or to control these risks. The paper focuses on identifying those business processes which risks may frequently take place, and how to manage them, illustrating practice cases to explain the theory, in order to make reference to NPE corporations. (author)

Self-Regulation Principles Underlying Risk Perception and Decision Making within the Context of Genomic Testing

Science.gov (United States)

Cameron, Linda D.; Biesecker, Barbara Bowles; Peters, Ellen; Taber, Jennifer M.; Klein, William M. P.

2017-01-01

Advances in theory and research on self-regulation and decision-making processes have yielded important insights into how cognitive, emotional, and social processes shape risk perceptions and risk-related decisions. We examine how self-regulation theory can be applied to inform our understanding of decision-making processes within the context of genomic testing, a clinical arena in which individuals face complex risk information and potentially life-altering decisions. After presenting key principles of self-regulation, we present a genomic testing case example to illustrate how principles related to risk representations, approach and avoidance motivations, emotion regulation, defensive responses, temporal construals, and capacities such as numeric abilities can shape decisions and psychological responses during the genomic testing process. We conclude with implications for using self-regulation theory to advance science within genomic testing and opportunities for how this research can inform further developments in self-regulation theory. PMID:29225669

Self-Regulation Principles Underlying Risk Perception and Decision Making within the Context of Genomic Testing.

Science.gov (United States)

Cameron, Linda D; Biesecker, Barbara Bowles; Peters, Ellen; Taber, Jennifer M; Klein, William M P

2017-05-01

Advances in theory and research on self-regulation and decision-making processes have yielded important insights into how cognitive, emotional, and social processes shape risk perceptions and risk-related decisions. We examine how self-regulation theory can be applied to inform our understanding of decision-making processes within the context of genomic testing, a clinical arena in which individuals face complex risk information and potentially life-altering decisions. After presenting key principles of self-regulation, we present a genomic testing case example to illustrate how principles related to risk representations, approach and avoidance motivations, emotion regulation, defensive responses, temporal construals, and capacities such as numeric abilities can shape decisions and psychological responses during the genomic testing process. We conclude with implications for using self-regulation theory to advance science within genomic testing and opportunities for how this research can inform further developments in self-regulation theory.

Implicit personality theory in evaluation of brand extensions.

Science.gov (United States)

Flaherty, K E; Pappas, J M

2000-06-01

Transference, the extent to which consumers transfer their opinions of a parent brand to a new extension, is critical to the success of any brand-extension strategy. Past research has shown that transference is a complex process that varies among persons depending upon an implicit personality theory, entity versus incremental. In a laboratory experiment analysis of ratings for 100 21-yr.-old undergraduates of attitude, perceived fit and risk, prior product involvement, and implicit personality theory (entity versus incremental) the influence of consumers' implicit personality theory on transference was considered within the brand-extension context. As expected, the amount of transference differed between those espousing entity and incremental theories. "Entity theorists" were much more likely to transfer feelings associated with the parent brand to the new extension than were "incremental theorists" who did not rely on prior brand information when forming evaluations of a new extension. This effect did not occur when perceived fit between the parent brand and the extension was high.

Lead-lag relationships between stock and market risk within linear response theory

Science.gov (United States)

Borysov, Stanislav; Balatsky, Alexander

2015-03-01

We study historical correlations and lead-lag relationships between individual stock risks (standard deviation of daily stock returns) and market risk (standard deviation of daily returns of a market-representative portfolio) in the US stock market. We consider the cross-correlation functions averaged over stocks, using historical stock prices from the Standard & Poor's 500 index for 1994-2013. The observed historical dynamics suggests that the dependence between the risks was almost linear during the US stock market downturn of 2002 and after the US housing bubble in 2007, remaining at that level until 2013. Moreover, the averaged cross-correlation function often had an asymmetric shape with respect to zero lag in the periods of high correlation. We develop the analysis by the application of the linear response formalism to study underlying causal relations. The calculated response functions suggest the presence of characteristic regimes near financial crashes, when individual stock risks affect market risk and vice versa. This work was supported by VR 621-2012-2983.

Governance of environmental risk: new approaches to managing stakeholder involvement.

Science.gov (United States)

Benn, Suzanne; Dunphy, Dexter; Martin, Andrew

2009-04-01

Disputes concerning industrial legacies such as the disposal of toxic wastes illustrate changing pressures on corporations and governments. Business and governments are now confronted with managing the expectations of a society increasingly aware of the social and environmental impacts and risks associated with economic development and demanding more equitable distribution and democratic management of such risks. The closed managerialist decision-making of the powerful bureaucracies and corporations of the industrial era is informed by traditional management theory which cannot provide a framework for the adequate governance of these risks. Recent socio-political theories have conceptualised some key themes that must be addressed in a more fitting approach to governance. We identify more recent management and governance theory which addresses these themes and develop a process-based approach to governance of environmental disputes that allows for the evolving nature of stakeholder relations in a highly complex multiple stakeholder arena.

How adolescents learn about risk perception and behavior in regards to alcohol use in light of social learning theory: a qualitative study in Bogotá, Colombia.

Science.gov (United States)

Trujillo, Elena María; Suárez, Daniel Enrique; Lema, Mariana; Londoño, Alicia

2015-02-01

In Colombia, the use of alcohol is one of the main risky behaviors carried out by adolescents, given that alcohol is the principal drug of abuse in this age group. Understanding how adolescents learn about risk and behavior is important in developing effective prevention programs. The Theory of Social learning underlines the importance of social interaction in the learning process. It suggests that learning can occur in three ways: a live model in which a person is enacting the desired behavior, verbal instruction when the desired behavior is described, and symbolic learning in which modeling occurs by influence of the media. This study explores these three forms of learning in the perception of risk and behavior related to the use of alcohol in a group of students between 12 and 14 years of age in Bogotá, Colombia. This is a qualitative research study, which is part of a larger study exploring the social representations of risk and alcohol use in adolescents and their communities. The sample group included 160 students from two middle schools (7th and 8th graders) in Bogotá, Colombia. Six sessions of participant observation, 12 semi-structured interviews, and 12 focus group discussions were conducted for data collection. Data were analyzed using the Atlas ti software (V7.0) (ATLAS.ti Scientific Software Development GmbH, London, UK), and categories of analysis were developed using a framework analysis approach. Adolescents can identify several risks related to the use of alcohol, which for the most part, appear to have been learned through verbal instruction. However, this risk recognition does not appear to correlate with their behavior. Parental modeling and messages conveyed by the media represent two other significant sources of learning that are constantly contradicting the messages relayed through verbal instruction and correlate to a greater extent with adolescent behavior. The three different forms of learning described by Social Learning Theory play a

Risk attitudes and birth order.

Science.gov (United States)

Krause, Philipp; Heindl, Johannes; Jung, Andreas; Langguth, Berthold; Hajak, Göran; Sand, Philipp G

2014-07-01

Risk attitudes play important roles in health behavior and everyday decision making. It is unclear, however, whether these attitudes can be predicted from birth order. We investigated 200 mostly male volunteers from two distinct settings. After correcting for multiple comparisons, for the number of siblings and for confounding by gender, ordinal position predicted perception of health-related risks among participants in extreme sports (p < .01). However, the direction of the effect contradicted Adlerian theory. Except for alcohol consumption, these findings extended to self-reported risk behavior. Together, the data call for a cautious stand on the impact of birth order on risk attitudes. © The Author(s) 2013.

Risk control and the minimum significant risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Seiler, F.A.; Alvarez, J.L.

1996-01-01

Risk management implies that the risk manager can, by his actions, exercise at least a modicum of control over the risk in question. In the terminology of control theory, a management action is a control signal imposed as feedback on the system to bring about a desired change in the state of the system. In the terminology of risk management, an action is taken to bring a predicted risk to lower values. Even if it is assumed that the management action taken is 100% effective and that the projected risk reduction is infinitely well known, there is a lower limit to the desired effects that can be achieved. It is based on the fact that all risks, such as the incidence of cancer, exhibit a degree of variability due to a number of extraneous factors such as age at exposure, sex, location, and some lifestyle parameters such as smoking or the consumption of alcohol. If the control signal is much smaller than the variability of the risk, the signal is lost in the noise and control is lost. This defines a minimum controllable risk based on the variability of the risk over the population considered. This quantity is the counterpart of the minimum significant risk which is defined by the uncertainties of the risk model. Both the minimum controllable risk and the minimum significant risk are evaluated for radiation carcinogenesis and are shown to be of the same order of magnitude. For a realistic management action, the assumptions of perfectly effective action and perfect model prediction made above have to be dropped, resulting in an effective minimum controllable risk which is determined by both risk limits. Any action below that effective limit is futile, but it is also unethical due to the ethical requirement of doing more good than harm. Finally, some implications of the effective minimum controllable risk on the use of the ALARA principle and on the evaluation of remedial action goals are presented

Utilizing Genomics through Family Health History with the Theory of Planned Behavior: Prediction of Type 2 Diabetes Risk Factors and Preventive Behavior in an African American Population in Florida.

Science.gov (United States)

Seaborn, Cynthia; Suther, Sandra; Lee, Torhonda; Kiros, Gebre-Egziabher; Becker, Alan; Campbell, Ellen; Collins-Robinson, Jackie

2016-01-01

African Americans are disproportionately affected by type 2 diabetes. The purpose of this study was to assess to what extent African Americans' knowledge and awareness of family health history and related risk factors for developing type 2 diabetes influence their likelihood of adopting a preventive behavior. This study employed an anonymous pencil-and-paper, self-administered survey consisting of two sections. Section 1 was a modified version of the US Surgeon General's Family Health History Initiative and the American Diabetes Association Diabetes Risk Factor Survey. Section 2 of the survey was based on the constructs of the theory of planned behavior. Over 394 African American participants completed the survey. 'Perceived behavioral control' was the strongest predictor of 'likelihood of adopting preventive behavior'. Participants were aware of their family history as a risk factor for type 2 diabetes, but it was not a significant predictor of behavior modifications based on that knowledge. The lack of perceived risk in this population shows the importance of not only knowing one's risk factors but translating those risk factors to a more personalized form that fits into the current lifestyle of the individual in a meaningful way. © 2016 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Understanding the Puzzling Risk-Return Relationship for Housing

OpenAIRE

Lu Han

2013-01-01

Standard theory predicts a positive relationship between risk and return, yet recent data show that housing returns vary positively with risk in some markets but negatively in others. This paper rationalizes these cross-market differences in the risk-return relationship for housing, and in so doing, explains the puzzling negative relationship. The paper shows that when the current house provides a hedge against the risk associated with the future housing consumption, households are willing to...

Risk management: integration of social and technical risk variables into safety assessments of LWR'S

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Turnage, J.J.; Husseiny, A.A.

1980-01-01

A risk management methodology is developed here to formalize the acceptability levels of commercial LWR power plants via the estimation of risk levels acceptable to the public and the integration of such estimates into risk-benefit analysis. Utility theory is used for developing preference models based on value trade-offs among multiple objectives and uncertainties about the impact of alternatives. The method involves reducing the various variables affecting safety acceptability decisions to a single function that provides a metric for acceptability levels. The function accomondates for technical criteria related to design and licensing decisions, as well as public reactions to certain choices

Ethical Aspects of Radiation Risk Management

OpenAIRE

Wikman-Svahn, Per

2012-01-01

This thesis is based on the assumption that the intersection of moral philosophy and practical risk management is a rewarding area to study. In particular, the thesis assumes that concepts, ideas, and methods that are used in moral philosophy can be of great benefit for risk analysis, but also that practices in risk regulation provide a useful testing ground for moral philosophical theories. The thesis consists of an introduction and five articles. Article I is a review article on social and ...

Operational Risk Measurement of Chinese Commercial Banks Based on Extreme Value Theory

Science.gov (United States)

Song, Jiashan; Li, Yong; Ji, Feng; Peng, Cheng

The financial institutions and supervision institutions have all agreed on strengthening the measurement and management of operational risks. This paper attempts to build a model on the loss of operational risks basing on Peak Over Threshold model, emphasizing on weighted least square, which improved Hill’s estimation method, while discussing the situation of small sample, and fix the sample threshold more objectively basing on the media-published data of primary banks loss on operational risk from 1994 to 2007.

Cognitive structure of occupational risks represented by a perceptual map.

Science.gov (United States)

Cardoso-Junior, M M; Scarpel, R A

2012-01-01

The main focus of risk management is technical and rational analysis about the operational risks and by those imposed by the occupational environment. In this work one seeks to contribute to the risk perception study and to better comprehend how a group of occupational safety students assesses a set of activities and environmental agents. In this way it was used theory sustained by psychometric paradigm and multivariate analysis tools, mainly multidimensional scaling, generalized Procrustes analysis and facets theory, in order to construct the perceptual map of occupational risks. The results obtained showed that the essential characteristics of risks, which were initially splited in 4 facets were detected and maintained in the perceptual map. It was not possible to reveal the cognitive structure of the group, because the variability of the students was too high. Differences among the risks analyzed could not be detected as well in the perceptual map of the group.

“UTILIZING” SIGNAL DETECTION THEORY

OpenAIRE

Lynn, Spencer K.; Barrett, Lisa Feldman

2014-01-01

What do inferring what a person is thinking or feeling, deciding to report a symptom to your doctor, judging a defendant’s guilt, and navigating a dimly lit room have in common? They involve perceptual uncertainty (e.g., a scowling face might indicate anger or concentration, which engender different appropriate responses), and behavioral risk (e.g., a cost to making the wrong response). Signal detection theory describes these types of decisions. In this tutorial we show how, by incorporating ...

EVOLUTIONARY THEORY AND THE MARKET COMPETITION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

SIRGHI Nicoleta

2014-12-01

economic exchanges. This paper is focused on the market competition. In this market the firms must define its behaviour and formulate strategies for future actions affected by risk and uncertainty. The conclusions of the paper reveal that using a theory of the firm as reference framework regarding the representation of the economic agent’s on market structure, opens the way for a new field of investigation.

A dynamic approach merging network theory and credit risk techniques to assess systemic risk in financial networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Petrone, Daniele; Latora, Vito

2018-04-03

The interconnectedness of financial institutions affects instability and credit crises. To quantify systemic risk we introduce here the PD model, a dynamic model that combines credit risk techniques with a contagion mechanism on the network of exposures among banks. A potential loss distribution is obtained through a multi-period Monte Carlo simulation that considers the probability of default (PD) of the banks and their tendency of defaulting in the same time interval. A contagion process increases the PD of banks exposed toward distressed counterparties. The systemic risk is measured by statistics of the loss distribution, while the contribution of each node is quantified by the new measures PDRank and PDImpact. We illustrate how the model works on the network of the European Global Systemically Important Banks. For a certain range of the banks' capital and of their assets volatility, our results reveal the emergence of a strong contagion regime where lower default correlation between banks corresponds to higher losses. This is the opposite of the diversification benefits postulated by standard credit risk models used by banks and regulators who could therefore underestimate the capital needed to overcome a period of crisis, thereby contributing to the financial system instability.

Towards a theory of spacetime theories

CERN Document Server

Schiemann, Gregor; Scholz, Erhard

2017-01-01

This contributed volume is the result of a July 2010 workshop at the University of Wuppertal Interdisciplinary Centre for Science and Technology Studies which brought together world-wide experts from physics, philosophy and history, in order to address a set of questions first posed in the 1950s: How do we compare spacetime theories? How do we judge, objectively, which is the “best” theory? Is there even a unique answer to this question? The goal of the workshop, and of this book, is to contribute to the development of a meta-theory of spacetime theories. Such a meta-theory would reveal insights about specific spacetime theories by distilling their essential similarities and differences, deliver a framework for a class of theories that could be helpful as a blueprint to build other meta-theories, and provide a higher level viewpoint for judging which theory most accurately describes nature. But rather than drawing a map in broad strokes, the focus is on particularly rich regions in the “space of spaceti...

Risk preferences over small stakes: Evidence from deductible choice

OpenAIRE

Janko Gorter; Paul Schilp

2012-01-01

This paper provides new field evidence on risk preferences over small stakes. Using unique population and survey data on deductible choice in Dutch universal health insurance, we find that risk preferences are a dominant factor in decision aking. In fact, our results indicate that risk preferences are both statistically and quantitatively more significant in explaining deductible choice behavior than risk type. This finding contrasts with classical expected utility theory, as it implies risk ...

Risks of a town-forming enterprise in the risk system of a company town

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Antonyuk V.S.

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The article is devoted to review of risks of a town-forming enterprise in the risk system of the company town counterparties (infrastructure, population, small and medium business, local self-government authorities. It contains an algorithm of stepwise study of risks of a town-forming enterprise from the perspective of their interconnection with the risk system of the company town counterparties. Approbation of theoretical and methodical provisions by the example of town-forming enterprise Asha Metallurgical Plant OJSC, Asha, Chelyabinsk region, with the help of the graph theory allowed to analyze interconnections and dependence of risks of the town-forming enterprise and to make a conclusion on its negative role in creation of a crisis situation in the economy of the company town. The article is completed with a complex of lines for neutralization of risks of AMP OJSC: TFE’s infrastructural and technological risk management; personnel risk management policy; mitigation of consumer, product and supply risks; competitive struggle risk management and advertising risk management.

INFLUENCE OF REGIME SWITCHING TO RISK IN PORT-MODERN PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT

OpenAIRE

Cristina Geambaşu; Liviu Geambaşu; Iulia Jianu

2013-01-01

The present financial crises determines an increase in analysing the application of regime switching over portfolio investments. We applied the switching regimes to measurement of risk as presented in post-modern portfolio management theory. Post-modern portfolio theory include investor’s tendency to measure risk as the chance to obtain from the investment performed a return lower than the minimum expected by him. The investor, as presented by behavioural finance, is more concerned about his ...

Test of the linear-no threshold theory of radiation carcinogenesis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cohen, B.L.

1994-01-01

We recently completed a compilation of radon measurements from available sources which gives the average radon level, in homes for 1730 counties, well over half of all U.S. counties and comprising about 90% of the total U.S. population. Epidemiologists normally study the relationship between mortality risks to individuals, m, vs their personal exposure, r, whereas an ecological study like ours deals with the relationship between the average risk to groups of individuals (population of counties) and their average exposure. It is well known to epidemiologists that, in general, the average dose does not determine the average risk, and to assume otherwise is called 'the ecological fallacy'. However, it is easy to show that, in testing a linear-no threshold theory, 'the ecological fallacy' does not apply; in that theory, the average dose does determine the average risk. This is widely recognized from the fact that 'person-rem' determines the number of deaths. Dividing person-rem by population gives average dose, and dividing number of deaths by population gives mortality rate. Because of the 'ecological fallacy', epidemiology textbooks often state that an ecological study cannot determine a causal relationship between risk and exposure. That may be true, but it is irrelevant here because the purpose of our study is not to determine a causal relationship; it is rather to test the linear-no threshold dependence of m on r. (author)

Global health risks and cosmopolitisation: from emergence to interference.

Science.gov (United States)

Figuié, Muriel

2013-02-01

According to Beck's 'World at Risk' theory, global risks push nations towards a cosmopolitisation of their health policy and open opportunities for a democratic turn. This article provides an empirical analysis of Beck's theory, based on the experience of Vietnamese authorities from 2003 to 2007 in managing the emerging avian flu virus. It shows how Vietnam's framing of avian flu has shifted, under the pressure from international organisations and the US administration, from an epizootic and zoonotic risk (or a classic risk) to a pandemic threat (or a late modern risk). Vietnam's response was part of its overall strategy to join the World Trade Organization and it was limited by Vietnam's defence of its sovereignty. This strategy has been successful for Vietnam but has limited the possibility of cosmopolitan and democratic transformations. The case study highlights the constructed dimension of risks of late modernity and their possible instrumentalisation: it minimises the role of a community of fear relative to a community of trade. © 2013 The Author. Sociology of Health & Illness © 2013 Foundation for the Sociology of Health & Illness/Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Integrated supply chain risk management

OpenAIRE

Riaan Bredell; Jackie Walters

2007-01-01

Integrated supply chain risk management (ISCRM) has become indispensable to the theory and practice of supply chain management. The economic and political realities of the modern world require not only a different approach to supply chain management, but also bold steps to secure supply chain performance and sustainable wealth creation. Integrated supply chain risk management provides supply chain organisations with a level of insight into their supply chains yet to be achieved. If correctly ...

Exploring Students' Ideas about Risks and Benefits of Nuclear Power Using Risk Perception Theories

Science.gov (United States)

Kilinc, Ahmet; Boyes, Edward; Stanisstreet, Martin

2013-01-01

Due to increased energy demand, Turkey is continuing to explore the possibilities of introducing nuclear power. Gaining acceptance from local populations, however, may be problematic because nuclear power has a negative image and risk perceptions are complicated by a range of psychological and cultural factors. In this study, we explore the views…

Risk Factors in Euro Adoption by Romania

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Roxana Maria BĂDÎRCEA

2014-11-01

Full Text Available The costs and benefits of adopting a unique currency have been studied and outlined by the optimum currency areas theory. This theory of Mundell has suffered modifications, a series of economists identifying and introducing a series of subsequent or additional criteria in the analysis. Starting from the costs indicated by the optimum currency areas theory and its further developments, I have identified a series of factors that I believe to represent future risks for the Romanian economy within the process of adopting the unique euro currency.

Managing Risks in Electrical Infrastructure Assets from a Strategic Perspective

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Zhuang, Q.

2015-01-01

Should risks always be quantified before being managed? The answer is “yes” in the opinion of most asset managers in today’s electricity transmission and distribution companies, but “no” in modern theories of risk management. When the risks refer to reliability hazards of high-voltage assets, the

Corporate risk tolerance and capital allocation: A practical approach to implementing an exploration risk policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Walls, M.R.

1995-01-01

Petroleum exploration companies are confronted regularly with the issue of allocating scarce capital among a set of available exploration projects, which are generally characterized by a high degree of financial risk and uncertainty. Commonly used methods for evaluating alternative investments consider the amount and timing of the monetary flows associated with a project and ignore the firm's ability or willingness to assume the business risk of the project. The preference-theory approach combines the traditional means of project valuation, net present value (NPV) analysis, with a decision-science-based approach to risk management. This integrated model provides a means for exploration firms to measure and to manage the financial risks associated with petroleum exploration, consistent with the firm's desired risk policy

A critique on the theory of financial intermediation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Wensveen, D.M.N.; Scholtens, Bert

This comment discusses the review by Franklin Alien and Anthony Santomero of the theory of financial intermediation in the 20th anniversary special issue of the Journal of Banking and Finance. We do not fully agree with their view that risk management is only of recent importance to the financial

Cultural Context and Modification of Behavior Change Theory

Science.gov (United States)

Sanders Thompson, Vetta L.

2009-01-01

Although social and cultural contexts act on each level of the multilevel ecologic model to affect cancer risk, health behavior, and cancer screening and promotion in health behavior research, people have yet to develop theories that sufficiently integrate the social and environmental context with group and individual behavior. The "Behavioral…

Nursing intellectual capital theory: testing selected propositions.

Science.gov (United States)

Covell, Christine L; Sidani, Souraya

2013-11-01

To test the selected propositions of the middle-range theory of nursing intellectual capital. The nursing intellectual capital theory conceptualizes nursing knowledge's influence on patient and organizational outcomes. The theory proposes nursing human capital, nurses' knowledge, skills and experience, is related to the quality of patient care and nurse recruitment and retention of an inpatient care unit. Two factors in the work environment, nurse staffing and employer support for nurse continuing professional development, are proposed to influence nursing human capital's association with patient and organizational outcomes. A cross-sectional survey design. The study took place in 2008 in six Canadian acute care hospitals. Financial, human resource and risk data were collected from hospital departments and unit managers. Clearly specified empirical indicators quantified the study variables. The propositions of the theory were tested with data from 91 inpatient care units using structural equation modelling. The propositions associated with the nursing human capital concept were supported. The propositions associated with the employer support for nurse continuing professional development concept were not. The proposition that nurse staffing's influences on patient outcomes was mediated by the nursing human capital of an inpatient unit, was partially supported. Some of the theory's propositions were empirically validated. Additional theoretical work is needed to refine the operationalization and measurement of some of the theory's concepts. Further research with larger samples of data from different geographical settings and types of hospitals is required to determine if the theory can withstand empirical scrutiny. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Real-time flood forecasts & risk assessment using a possibility-theory based fuzzy neural network

Science.gov (United States)

Khan, U. T.

2016-12-01

Globally floods are one of the most devastating natural disasters and improved flood forecasting methods are essential for better flood protection in urban areas. Given the availability of high resolution real-time datasets for flood variables (e.g. streamflow and precipitation) in many urban areas, data-driven models have been effectively used to predict peak flow rates in river; however, the selection of input parameters for these types of models is often subjective. Additionally, the inherit uncertainty associated with data models along with errors in extreme event observations means that uncertainty quantification is essential. Addressing these concerns will enable improved flood forecasting methods and provide more accurate flood risk assessments. In this research, a new type of data-driven model, a quasi-real-time updating fuzzy neural network is developed to predict peak flow rates in urban riverine watersheds. A possibility-to-probability transformation is first used to convert observed data into fuzzy numbers. A possibility theory based training regime is them used to construct the fuzzy parameters and the outputs. A new entropy-based optimisation criterion is used to train the network. Two existing methods to select the optimum input parameters are modified to account for fuzzy number inputs, and compared. These methods are: Entropy-Wavelet-based Artificial Neural Network (EWANN) and Combined Neural Pathway Strength Analysis (CNPSA). Finally, an automated algorithm design to select the optimum structure of the neural network is implemented. The overall impact of each component of training this network is to replace the traditional ad hoc network configuration methods, with one based on objective criteria. Ten years of data from the Bow River in Calgary, Canada (including two major floods in 2005 and 2013) are used to calibrate and test the network. The EWANN method selected lagged peak flow as a candidate input, whereas the CNPSA method selected lagged

Towards cosmopolitan middle-range theorizing: A metamorphosis in the practice of social theory?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Blok, Anders

2015-01-01

, spurred as it is by the urgency of responding to the global risks of climate change via reworking key categories of social theory. More strongly than existing notions of world risk society and second modernity, his new concept of metamorphosis (‘Verwandlung’) captures the way contemporary social upheavals...

Credit Monitoring – a Core of Credit Risk Management: Theory and Experience

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daiva Jurevičienė

2013-11-01

Full Text Available Purpose of the article: Purpose of the article is to identify credit monitoring as a keystone of credit risk management in banks. CRM is widely discussed in scientific literature and in reports of institutions undertaking credit risk or supervisory bodies. However majority of such investigations are based on implementation of numerous quantitative or qualitative methods used for credit risk assessment before granting a loan or for credit portfolio risk management. There is a lack of information or investigations made on estimation of the need of credit monitoring in credit risk management process. Scientific aim: Scientific aim is to structure the early warning signs that reflect the condition of credits. Methodology/methods: The paper is based on analysis and resumption of various scientific and professional articles related to organization of credit process in banks. It combines results of assessments of credit monitoring importance in credit risk management process made by theoretical studies as well as investigation of experts. Findings: Finding of the article is presentation of credit monitoring tools that should be applied for corporate (and individual clients via modification of original credit agreement. Conclusions: (limits, implications etc Conclusion of the article is that credit monitoring is a keystone in credit risk management process. The purpose of credit monitoring is to detect in time possible worsening of the loan and to react (make changes in loan agreement. The simplest tool for credit monitoring is to identify early warning signs in time that could be assorted into four groups: EWS of business environment; EWS with regard to management, EWS regarding collateral, EWS in financial analysis. Limitation of investigation is impossibility of evaluation of importance of monitoring process in practice except investigation of experts (employees directly responsible for credit business.

A Risk Management Approach for a Sustainable Cloud Migration

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alifah Aida Lope Abdul Rahman

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Cloud computing is not just about resource sharing, cost savings and optimisation of business performance; it also involves fundamental concerns on how businesses need to respond on the risks and challenges upon migration. Managing risks is critical for a sustainable cloud adoption. It includes several dimensions such as cost, practising the concept of green IT, data quality, continuity of services to users and clients, guarantee tangible benefits. This paper presents a risk management approach for a sustainable cloud migration. We consider four dimensions of sustainability, i.e., economic, environmental, social and technology to determine the viability of cloud for the business context. The risks are systematically identified and analysed based on the existing in house controls and the cloud service provider offerings. We use Dempster Shafer (D-S theory to measure the adequacy of controls and apply semi-quantitative approach to perform risk analysis based on the theory of belief. The risk exposure for each sustainability dimension allows us to determine the viability of cloud migration. A practical migration use case is considered to determine the applicability of our work. The results identify the risk exposure and recommended control for the risk mitigation. We conclude that risks depend on specific migration case and both Cloud Service Provider (CSP and users are responsible for the risk mitigation. Inherent risks can evolve due to the cloud migration.

Bridging Two Worlds: Reconciling Practical Risk Assessment Methodologies with Theory of Attack Trees

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Gadyatskaya, Olga; Harpes, Carlo; Mauw, Sjouke; Muller, Cedric; Muller, Steve

2016-01-01

Security risk treatment often requires a complex cost-benefit analysis to be carried out in order to select countermeasures that optimally reduce risks while having minimal costs. According to ISO/IEC 27001, risk treatment relies on catalogues of countermeasures, and the analysts are expected to

Supply risk management from a transaction cost and social exchange theory perspective

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hoffmann, Petra; Schiele, Holger; Song, Michael; Krabbendam, Johannes Jacobus

2012-01-01

Supply risk management gained prominence over the last decade, both in the academic discourse and in practical application. This research examines the influence of Transaction Cost characteristics -behavioral uncertainty, environmental uncertainty and asset specificity on supply risk management

Dependence theory via game theory

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Grossi, D.; Turrini, P.

2011-01-01

In the multi-agent systems community, dependence theory and game theory are often presented as two alternative perspectives on the analysis of social interaction. Up till now no research has been done relating these two approaches. The unification presented provides dependence theory with the sort

LOW DOSE RISK, DECISIONS, and RISK COMMUNICATION

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Flynn, James

2002-01-01

The objective of this project is to conduct basic research on how people receive, evaluate, and form positions on scientific information and its relationship to low-dose radiation exposure. There are three major areas of study in our research program. First is the development of theories, frameworks and concepts essential to guiding data collection and analysis. The second area is a program of experimental studies on risk perception, evaluation of science information, and the structure of individual positions regarding low-dose exposures. Third is the community-level studies to examine and record how the social conditions, under which science communications take place, influence the development of attitudes and opinions about: low-dose exposures, the available management options, control of radiation risks, and preferences for program and policy goals