Risk assessment methodologies for predicting phosphorus losses

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Schoumans, O.F.; Chardon, W.J.

2003-01-01

Risk assessment parameters are needed to assess the contribution of phosphorus (P) losses from soil to surface water, and the effectiveness of nutrient and land management strategies for the reduction of P loss. These parameters need to take into account the large temporal and spatial variation in P

Knowledge loss risk assessment in Institute for Nuclear Research Pitesti, Romania

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Apostol, Minodora; Constantin, Marin; Balaceanu, Victoria

2009-01-01

This paper presents a method developed in Institute for Nuclear Research Pitesti for knowledge loss risk assessment in nuclear sector, in order to obtain a risk map at departmental and organizational level, by analyzing each position/people. The method starts from the classical method for knowledge loss risk assessment but takes into account the INR characteristics, the particularities of Romanian nuclear market and the difficulties of the classical method to estimate correctly the risk at the job level. A short description of the classical method of knowledge loss risk assessment, the improved method by introducing five new parameters for risk factor of vacant job are presented, how this last method has been applied in some departments from INR Pitesti and the preliminary risk matrix for knowledge loss at organization level is discussed. (authors)

Alexithymia predicts loss chasing for people at risk for problem gambling.

Science.gov (United States)

Bibby, Peter A; Ross, Katherine E

2017-12-01

Background and aims The aim of this research was to investigate the relationship between alexithymia and loss-chasing behavior in people at risk and not at risk for problem gambling. Methods An opportunity sample of 58 (50 males and 8 females) participants completed the Problem Gambling Severity Index and the Toronto Alexithymia Scale (TAS-20). They then completed the Cambridge Gambling Task from which a measure of loss-chasing behavior was derived. Results Alexithymia and problem gambling risk were significantly positively correlated. Subgroups of non-alexithymic and at or near caseness for alexithymia by low risk and at risk for problem gambling were identified. The results show a clear difference for loss-chasing behavior for the two alexithymia conditions, but there was no evidence that low and at-risk problem gamblers were more likely to loss chase. The emotion-processing components of the TAS-20 were shown to correlate with loss chasing. Discussion and conclusion These findings suggest that loss-chasing behavior may be particularly prevalent in a subgroup of problem gamblers those who are high in alexithymia.

Amygdala damage eliminates monetary loss aversion.

Science.gov (United States)

De Martino, Benedetto; Camerer, Colin F; Adolphs, Ralph

2010-02-23

Losses are a possibility in many risky decisions, and organisms have evolved mechanisms to evaluate and avoid them. Laboratory and field evidence suggests that people often avoid risks with losses even when they might earn a substantially larger gain, a behavioral preference termed "loss aversion." The cautionary brake on behavior known to rely on the amygdala is a plausible candidate mechanism for loss aversion, yet evidence for this idea has so far not been found. We studied two rare individuals with focal bilateral amygdala lesions using a series of experimental economics tasks. To measure individual sensitivity to financial losses we asked participants to play a variety of monetary gambles with possible gains and losses. Although both participants retained a normal ability to respond to changes in the gambles' expected value and risk, they showed a dramatic reduction in loss aversion compared to matched controls. The findings suggest that the amygdala plays a key role in generating loss aversion by inhibiting actions with potentially deleterious outcomes.

Analysis of risk reduction methods for interfacing system LOCAs [loss-of-coolant accidents] at PWRs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bozoki, G.; Kohut, P.; Fitzpatrick, R.

1988-01-01

The Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) predicted that Interfacing System Loss-of-Coolant Accidents (ISL) events were significant contributors to risk even though they were calculated to be relatively low frequency events. However, there are substantial uncertainties involved in determining the probability and consequences of the ISL sequences. For example, the assumed valve failure modes, common cause contributions and the location of the break/leak are all uncertain and can significantly influence the predicted risk from ISL events. In order to provide more realistic estimates for the core damage frequencies (CDFs) and a reduction in the magnitude of the uncertainties, a reexamination of ISL scenarios at PWRs has been performed by Brookhaven National Laboratory. The objective of this study was to investigate the vulnerability of pressurized water reactor designs to ISLs and identify any improvements that could significantly reduce the frequency/risk of these events

Substantial Loss of Conserved and Gain of Novel MicroRNA Families in Flatworms

Science.gov (United States)

Fromm, Bastian; Worren, Merete Molton; Hahn, Christoph; Hovig, Eivind; Bachmann, Lutz

2013-01-01

Recent studies on microRNA (miRNA) evolution focused mainly on the comparison of miRNA complements between animal clades. However, evolution of miRNAs within such groups is poorly explored despite the availability of comparable data that in some cases lack only a few key taxa. For flatworms (Platyhelminthes), miRNA complements are available for some free-living flatworms and all major parasitic lineages, except for the Monogenea. We present the miRNA complement of the monogenean flatworm Gyrodactylus salaris that facilitates a comprehensive analysis of miRNA evolution in Platyhelminthes. Using the newly designed bioinformatics pipeline miRCandRef, the miRNA complement was disentangled from next-generation sequencing of small RNAs and genomic DNA without a priori genome assembly. It consists of 39 miRNA hairpin loci of conserved miRNA families, and 22 novel miRNAs. A comparison with the miRNA complements of Schmidtea mediterranea (Turbellaria), Schistosoma japonicum (Trematoda), and Echinococcus granulosus (Cestoda) reveals a substantial loss of conserved bilaterian, protostomian, and lophotrochozoan miRNAs. Eight of the 46 expected conserved miRNAs were lost in all flatworms, 16 in Neodermata and 24 conserved miRNAs could not be detected in the cestode and the trematode. Such a gradual loss of miRNAs has not been reported before for other animal phyla. Currently, little is known about miRNAs in Platyhelminthes, and for the majority of the lost miRNAs there is no prediction of function. As suggested earlier they might be related to morphological simplifications. The presence and absence of 153 conserved miRNAs was compared for platyhelminths and 32 other metazoan taxa. Phylogenetic analyses support the monophyly of Platyhelminthes (Turbellaria + Neodermata [Monogenea {Trematoda + Cestoda}]). PMID:24025793

ECT and memory loss.

Science.gov (United States)

Squire, L R

1977-09-01

The author reviews several studies that clarify the nature of the memory loss associated with ECT. Bilateral ECT produced greater anterograde memory loss than right unilateral ECT and more extensive retrograde amnesia than unilateral ECT. Reactivating memories just before ECT did not produce amnesia. Capacity for new learning recovered substantially by several months after ECT, but memory complaints were common in individuals who had received bilateral ECT. Other things being equal, right unilateral ECT seems preferable to bilateral ECT because the risks to memory associated with unilateral ECT are smaller.

A Neuropsychological Approach to Understanding Risk-Taking for Potential Gains and Losses

Science.gov (United States)

Levin, Irwin P.; Xue, Gui; Weller, Joshua A.; Reimann, Martin; Lauriola, Marco; Bechara, Antoine

2012-01-01

Affective neuroscience has helped guide research and theory development in judgment and decision-making by revealing the role of emotional processes in choice behavior, especially when risk is involved. Evidence is emerging that qualitatively and quantitatively different processes may be involved in risky decision-making for gains and losses. We start by reviewing behavioral work by Kahneman and Tversky (1979) and others, which shows that risk-taking differs for potential gains and potential losses. We then turn to the literature in decision neuroscience to support the gain versus loss distinction. Relying in part on data from a new task that separates risky decision-making for gains and losses, we test a neural model that assigns unique mechanisms for risky decision-making involving potential losses. Included are studies using patients with lesions to brain areas specified as important in the model and studies with healthy individuals whose brains are scanned to reveal activation in these and other areas during risky decision-making. In some cases, there is evidence that gains and losses are processed in different regions of the brain, while in other cases the same region appears to process risk in a different manner for gains and losses. At a more general level, we provide strong support for the notion that decisions involving risk-taking for gains and decisions involving risk-taking for losses represent different psychological processes. At a deeper level, we present mounting evidence that different neural structures play different roles in guiding risky choices in these different domains. Some structures are differentially activated by risky gains and risky losses while others respond uniquely in one domain or the other. Taken together, these studies support a clear functional dissociation between risk-taking for gains and risk-taking for losses, and further dissociation at the neural level. PMID:22347161

Does tinnitus, hearing asymmetry, or hearing loss predispose to occupational injury risk?

Science.gov (United States)

Cantley, Linda F; Galusha, Deron; Cullen, Mark R; Dixon-Ernst, Christine; Tessier-Sherman, Baylah; Slade, Martin D; Rabinowitz, Peter M; Neitzel, Richard L

2015-02-01

To determine the relative contributions of tinnitus, asymmetrical hearing loss, low frequency hearing loss (pure tone average of 0.5, 1, 2, 3 kHz; PTA.5123), or high frequency hearing loss (pure tone average of 4, 6 kHz; PTA46), to acute injury risk among a cohort of production and maintenance workers at six aluminum manufacturing plants, adjusting for ambient noise exposure and other recognized predictors of injury risk. Retrospective analysis. The study considered 9920 workers employed during 2003 to 2008. The cohort consisted of 8818 workers (89%) whose complete records were available. Adjusting for noise exposure and other recognized injury predictors, a 25% increased acute injury risk was observed among workers with a history of tinnitus in conjunction with high-frequency hearing loss (PTA46). Low frequency hearing loss may be associated with minor, yet less serious, injury risk. We did not find evidence that asymmetry contributes to injury risk. These results provide evidence that tinnitus, combined with high-frequency hearing loss, may pose an important safety threat to workers, especially those who work in high-noise exposed environments. These at risk workers may require careful examination of their communication and hearing protection needs.

Enhanced Risk Aversion, But Not Loss Aversion, in Unmedicated Pathological Anxiety.

Science.gov (United States)

Charpentier, Caroline J; Aylward, Jessica; Roiser, Jonathan P; Robinson, Oliver J

2017-06-15

Anxiety disorders are associated with disruptions in both emotional processing and decision making. As a result, anxious individuals often make decisions that favor harm avoidance. However, this bias could be driven by enhanced aversion to uncertainty about the decision outcome (e.g., risk) or aversion to negative outcomes (e.g., loss). Distinguishing between these possibilities may provide a better cognitive understanding of anxiety disorders and hence inform treatment strategies. To address this question, unmedicated individuals with pathological anxiety (n = 25) and matched healthy control subjects (n = 23) completed a gambling task featuring a decision between a gamble and a safe (certain) option on every trial. Choices on one type of gamble-involving weighing a potential win against a potential loss (mixed)-could be driven by both loss and risk aversion, whereas choices on the other type-featuring only wins (gain only)-were exclusively driven by risk aversion. By fitting a computational prospect theory model to participants' choices, we were able to reliably estimate risk and loss aversion and their respective contribution to gambling decisions. Relative to healthy control subjects, pathologically anxious participants exhibited enhanced risk aversion but equivalent levels of loss aversion. Individuals with pathological anxiety demonstrate clear avoidance biases in their decision making. These findings suggest that this may be driven by a reduced propensity to take risks rather than a stronger aversion to losses. This important clarification suggests that psychological interventions for anxiety should focus on reducing risk sensitivity rather than reducing sensitivity to negative outcomes per se. Copyright © 2017 Society of Biological Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

THE RISK FACTORS FOR INITIAL REPRODUCTIVE LOSS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Екатерина Игоревна Лебедева

2017-09-01

Conclusion. Mixed somatic and gynecological pathology, abnormalities in hemostasis, combination of inherited and acquired thrombogenic risk factors dominates in women with initial reproductive loss, though only 37,3 % such pregnancies have favorable outcome.

Reef fishes in biodiversity hotspots are at greatest risk from loss of coral species.

Science.gov (United States)

Holbrook, Sally J; Schmitt, Russell J; Messmer, Vanessa; Brooks, Andrew J; Srinivasan, Maya; Munday, Philip L; Jones, Geoffrey P

2015-01-01

Coral reef ecosystems are under a variety of threats from global change and anthropogenic disturbances that are reducing the number and type of coral species on reefs. Coral reefs support upwards of one third of all marine species of fish, so the loss of coral habitat may have substantial consequences to local fish diversity. We posit that the effects of habitat degradation will be most severe in coral regions with highest biodiversity of fishes due to greater specialization by fishes for particular coral habitats. Our novel approach to this important but untested hypothesis was to conduct the same field experiment at three geographic locations across the Indo-Pacific biodiversity gradient (Papua New Guinea; Great Barrier Reef, Australia; French Polynesia). Specifically, we experimentally explored whether the response of local fish communities to identical changes in diversity of habitat-providing corals was independent of the size of the regional species pool of fishes. We found that the proportional reduction (sensitivity) in fish biodiversity to loss of coral diversity was greater for regions with larger background species pools, reflecting variation in the degree of habitat specialization of fishes across the Indo-Pacific diversity gradient. This result implies that habitat-associated fish in diversity hotspots are at greater risk of local extinction to a given loss of habitat diversity compared to regions with lower species richness. This mechanism, related to the positive relationship between habitat specialization and regional biodiversity, and the elevated extinction risk this poses for biodiversity hotspots, may apply to species in other types of ecosystems.

Reef fishes in biodiversity hotspots are at greatest risk from loss of coral species.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sally J Holbrook

Full Text Available Coral reef ecosystems are under a variety of threats from global change and anthropogenic disturbances that are reducing the number and type of coral species on reefs. Coral reefs support upwards of one third of all marine species of fish, so the loss of coral habitat may have substantial consequences to local fish diversity. We posit that the effects of habitat degradation will be most severe in coral regions with highest biodiversity of fishes due to greater specialization by fishes for particular coral habitats. Our novel approach to this important but untested hypothesis was to conduct the same field experiment at three geographic locations across the Indo-Pacific biodiversity gradient (Papua New Guinea; Great Barrier Reef, Australia; French Polynesia. Specifically, we experimentally explored whether the response of local fish communities to identical changes in diversity of habitat-providing corals was independent of the size of the regional species pool of fishes. We found that the proportional reduction (sensitivity in fish biodiversity to loss of coral diversity was greater for regions with larger background species pools, reflecting variation in the degree of habitat specialization of fishes across the Indo-Pacific diversity gradient. This result implies that habitat-associated fish in diversity hotspots are at greater risk of local extinction to a given loss of habitat diversity compared to regions with lower species richness. This mechanism, related to the positive relationship between habitat specialization and regional biodiversity, and the elevated extinction risk this poses for biodiversity hotspots, may apply to species in other types of ecosystems.

Risk Factors for Loss to Follow-Up among People Who Inject Drugs in a Risk Reduction Program at Karachi, Pakistan. A Case-Cohort Study.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rab Nawaz Samo

Full Text Available Retention of male people who inject drugs (PWIDs is a major challenge for harm reduction programs that include sterile needle/syringe exchange in resource-limited settings like Pakistan. We assessed the risk factors for loss to follow-up among male PWIDs enrolled in a risk reduction program in Karachi, Pakistan.We conducted a prospective cohort study among 636 HIV-uninfected male PWIDs enrolled during March-June 2009 in a harm reduction program for the estimation of incidence rate. At 24 months post-enrollment, clients who had dropped out of the program were defined as lost to follow-up and included as cases for case-cohort study.The median age of the participants was 29 years (interquartile range: 23-36. Active outreach accounted for 76% (483/636 of cohort recruits. Loss to follow-up at 24 months was 25.5% (162/636. In multivariable logistic regression, younger age (AOR: 0.97, 95% CI: 0.92-0.99, p = 0.028, clients from other provinces than Sindh (AOR: 1.49, 95% CI: 1.01-2.22, p = 0.046, having no formal education (AOR: 3.44, 95% CI: 2.35-4.90, p<0.001, a history of incarceration (AOR: 1.68, 95% CI: 1.14-2.46, p<0.008, and being homeless (AOR: 1.47, 95% CI: 1.00-2.19, p<0.049 were associated with loss to follow-up.Our cohort retained 74.5% of male PWIDs in Karachi for 24 months. Its loss to follow up rate suggested substantial ongoing programmatic challenges. Programmatic enhancements are needed for the highest risk male PWIDs, i.e., younger men, men not from Sindh Province, men who are poorly educated, formerly incarcerated, and/or homeless.

Risk factors for hearing loss in elderly

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kelly Vasconcelos Chaves Martins

2012-06-01

Full Text Available Objective: To identify risk factors related to sensorineural hearing loss in elderly. Methods: The sample consisted of 60 selected elderly, divided into two groups: the Case Group, composed by 30 individuals, 21 females and 9 males, aged at least 60 years, presenting sensorineural hearing loss, and the Control Group, composed by 30 individuals matched on gender and age, with normal hearing. The patients were submitted to audiological anamnesis and tonal audiometry. The hearing impairment was defined according to average threshold greater than 35dBNA, in the frequencies of 1,000; 2,000 and 4,000 Hz, in the best ear. Results: Statistically significant odds ratios were: a to audiological history: noise exposure and family history of deafness; b to situations involving hearing difficulty: television, church, telephone, silent environment, spatial location of sound, difficulty with voices and noisy environment; c to otologic history: tinnitus, otorrhea and nausea; and d to medical history: visual problems, smoke, alcohol, thyroid problems and kidney disease. Conclusion: The findings of this study highlighted, for sensorineural hearing loss, risk factors related to audiologic, otologic and medical history, and to situations involving hearing difficulty.

26 CFR 5.1502-45 - Limitation on losses to amount at risk.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... 26 Internal Revenue 14 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Limitation on losses to amount at risk. 5.1502... Limitation on losses to amount at risk. (a) In general—(1) Scope. This section applies to a loss of any subsidiary if the common parent's stock meets the stock ownership requirement described in section 465(a)(1...

Credit Risk Management. A study on risk integration in the bank lending process.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Sleddens, Linda Elsa Wilhelmina

2011-01-01

Credit risk management has been a topic much written about in the last decade. Substantial credit risk losses can undermine the stability of the bank. Both banks and national bank supervisors have realized the need to invest in credit risk management. Partly driven by regulations such as the Basel

Risk of hearing loss among workers with vibration-induced white fingers.

Science.gov (United States)

Pettersson, Hans; Burström, Lage; Hagberg, Mats; Lundström, Ronnie; Nilsson, Tohr

2014-12-01

We examined the risk of hearing loss for workers who use hand-held vibrating tools with vibration-induced white fingers (VWF) compared to workers without VWF. Data on 184 participants from a 21-year cohort were gathered with questionnaires and measurements. The effects on hearing status of VWF, hand-arm vibration exposure, smoking habits, age and two-way interactions of these independent variables were examined with binary logistic regression. Analyses were made for the right hand and ear as well as for the hand with VWF and the ear with worse categorized hearing status. Workers with VWF in their right hand had an increased risk of hearing loss (odds ratio 2.2-2.3) in the right ear. Workers with VWF in any hand did not have any increased risk of hearing loss in the ear with worse hearing status. This study supports the hypothesis that VWF increases the risk of hearing loss among workers who use hand-held vibrating tools in a noisy environment. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Heat stress causes substantial labour productivity loss in Australia

Science.gov (United States)

Zander, Kerstin K.; Botzen, Wouter J. W.; Oppermann, Elspeth; Kjellstrom, Tord; Garnett, Stephen T.

2015-07-01

Heat stress at the workplace is an occupational health hazard that reduces labour productivity. Assessment of productivity loss resulting from climate change has so far been based on physiological models of heat exposure. These models suggest productivity may decrease by 11-27% by 2080 in hot regions such as Asia and the Caribbean, and globally by up to 20% in hot months by 2050. Using an approach derived from health economics, we describe self-reported estimates of work absenteeism and reductions in work performance caused by heat in Australia during 2013/2014. We found that the annual costs were US$655 per person across a representative sample of 1,726 employed Australians. This represents an annual economic burden of around US$6.2 billion (95% CI: 5.2-7.3 billion) for the Australian workforce. This amounts to 0.33 to 0.47% of Australia’s GDP. Although this was a period when many Australians experienced what is at present considered exceptional heat, our results suggest that adaptation measures to reduce heat effects should be adopted widely if severe economic impacts from labour productivity loss are to be avoided if heat waves become as frequent as predicted.

75 FR 58468 - Terrorism Risk Insurance Program; Program Loss Reporting

Science.gov (United States)

2010-09-24

... DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY Terrorism Risk Insurance Program; Program Loss Reporting AGENCY: Departmental Offices, Terrorism Risk Insurance Program Office, Treasury. ACTION: Notice and request for... 1995, Public Law 104-13 (44 U.S.C. 3506(c)(2)(A)). Currently, the Terrorism Risk Insurance Program...

Risk finance for catastrophe losses with Pareto-calibrated Lévy-stable severities.

Science.gov (United States)

Powers, Michael R; Powers, Thomas Y; Gao, Siwei

2012-11-01

For catastrophe losses, the conventional risk finance paradigm of enterprise risk management identifies transfer, as opposed to pooling or avoidance, as the preferred solution. However, this analysis does not necessarily account for differences between light- and heavy-tailed characteristics of loss portfolios. Of particular concern are the decreasing benefits of diversification (through pooling) as the tails of severity distributions become heavier. In the present article, we study a loss portfolio characterized by nonstochastic frequency and a class of Lévy-stable severity distributions calibrated to match the parameters of the Pareto II distribution. We then propose a conservative risk finance paradigm that can be used to prepare the firm for worst-case scenarios with regard to both (1) the firm's intrinsic sensitivity to risk and (2) the heaviness of the severity's tail. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Amazon river flow regime and flood recessional agriculture: Flood stage reversals and risk of annual crop loss

Science.gov (United States)

Coomes, Oliver T.; Lapointe, Michel; Templeton, Michael; List, Geneva

2016-08-01

The annual flood cycle is an important driver of ecosystem structure and function in large tropical rivers such as the Amazon. Riparian peasant communities rely on river fishing and annual floodplain agriculture, closely adapted to the recession phase of the flood pulse. This article reports on a poorly documented but important challenge facing farmers practicing flood recessional agriculture along the Amazon river: frequent, unpredictable stage reversals (repiquetes) which threaten to ruin crops growing on channel bars. We assess the severity of stage reversals for rice production on exposed river mud bars (barreales) near Iquitos, Peru. Crop loss risk is estimated based on a quantitative analysis of 45 years of daily Amazon stage data and field data from floodplain communities nearby in the Muyuy archipelago, upstream of Iquitos. Rice varieties selected, elevations of silt rich bars where rice is sown, as well as planting and harvest dates are analyzed in the light of the timing, frequencies and amplitudes of observed stage reversals that have the potential to destroy growing rice. We find that unpredictable stage reversals can produce substantial crop losses and shorten significantly the length of average growing seasons on lower elevation river bars. The data reveal that local famers extend planting down to lower bar elevations where the mean probabilities of re-submergence before rice maturity (due to reversals) approach 50%, below which they implicitly consider that the risk of crop loss outweighs the potential reward of planting.

Mindfulness-Based Interventions for Weight Loss and CVD Risk Management

Science.gov (United States)

Fulwiler, Carl; Brewer, Judson A.; Sinnott, Sinead; Loucks, Eric B.

2017-01-01

Obesity affects more than one-third of U.S. adults and is a major cause of preventable morbidity and mortality, primarily from cardiovascular disease. Traditional behavioral interventions for weight loss typically focus on diet and exercise habits and often give little attention to the role of stress and emotions in the initiation and maintenance of unhealthy behaviors, which may account for their modest results and considerable variability in outcomes. Stress eating and emotional eating are increasingly recognized as important targets of weight loss interventions. Mindfulness-based interventions were specifically developed to promote greater self-efficacy in coping with stress and negative emotions, and appear to be effective for a variety of conditions. In recent years researchers have begun to study mindfulness interventions for weight loss and CVD risk management. This review describes the rationale for the use of mindfulness in interventions for weight loss and CVD risk management, summarizes the research to date, and suggests priorities for future research. PMID:28405260

Blood-loss Management in Spine Surgery.

Science.gov (United States)

Bible, Jesse E; Mirza, Muhammad; Knaub, Mark A

2018-01-15

Substantial blood loss during spine surgery can result in increased patient morbidity and mortality. Proper preoperative planning and communication with the patient, anesthesia team, and operating room staff can lessen perioperative blood loss. Advances in intraoperative antifibrinolytic agents and modified anesthesia techniques have shown promising results in safely reducing blood loss. The surgeon's attention to intraoperative hemostasis and the concurrent use of local hemostatic agents also can lessen intraoperative bleeding. Conversely, the use of intraoperative blood salvage has come into question, both for its potential inability to reduce the need for allogeneic transfusions as well as its cost-effectiveness. Allogeneic blood transfusion is associated with elevated risks, including surgical site infection. Thus, desirable transfusion thresholds should remain restrictive.

Loss of partner and suicide risks among oldest old

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Erlangsen, Annette; Jeune, Bernard; Bille-Brahe, Unni

2004-01-01

BACKGROUND: while mortality among the oldest old has improved over recent decades, these improvements are not reflected in the suicide mortality of this age group. We do not know the reasons why the suicide mortality is still very high among the oldest old. OBJECTIVE: the aim is to analyse...... the impact that loss of a partner has on the suicide risks of the oldest old (80+) compared to younger age groups. SUBJECTS: the entire Danish population aged 50 during 1994-1998 (n = 1,978,527). METHODS: we applied survival analysis to calculate the changes in relative risk of suicide after a loss by using...... individual-level data. RESULTS: the majority of older persons who commit suicide are widowed, although only a relatively small proportion of the oldest old who commit suicide have experienced a recent loss of partner (men: 18%, women: 6%). In absolute terms, the oldest old men experience the highest increase...

Risk of hearing loss in small for gestational age neonates

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Melani Rakhmi Mantu

2011-02-01

Full Text Available Background Small for gestational age (SGA neonates often have intrauterine growth restriction due to placental insufficiency and chronic hypoxia. These conditions may cause developmental impairment, psychosocial disabilities, or metabolic dysfunction in later life. Previous studies have shown greater incidence of speech and language disabilities, learning impairment, and neuromotor dysfunction in term SGA infants compared to term appropriate for gestational age (AGA infants. Objective To compare hearing loss in SGA and AGA neonates using otoocoustic emission (OAE tests and to study correlations between maternal risk factors and hearing loss in SGA neonates. Methods A cross-sectional study was performed in St. Borromeus Hospital, Limijati Hospital, and Melinda Hospital in Bandung from February to May 2010. Study subjects consisted of full-term neonates born in these three hospitals. A retrospective medical record review was performed for this study. Statistical analysis was done by multivariable logistic-regression. Results There was a total of 4279 subjects in our study, including 100 SGA neonates and 4179 AGA neonates. We observed a greater percentage of OAE 'refer' (indicating abnormal OAE results in the SGA group compared to the AGA group (P<0.001, Z=13.247. For suhjects with OAE 'refer' results, we also analyzed the correlation to the following maternal risk factors: smoking, hypertension, diabetes mellitus and asthma. We also found significant differences between  those with and without each of the four maternal risk factors studied (P< 0.001. By using multivariant analysis to compare SGA and AGA neonates, we found the odds ratio (OR to he 4.34 (95% CI 2.52 to 7.49, P=0.001, meaning the SGA group had a 4.34 times higher risk of hearing loss than the AGA group. Conclusion SGA neonates had a higher risk of hearing loss than AGA neonates. In addition, maternal smoking, hypertension, diabetes mellitus and asthma significantly correlated to

Risk of hearing loss in small for gestational age neonates

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Melani Rakhmi Mantu

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Background Small for gestational age (SGA neonates often have intrauterine growth restriction due to placental insufficiency and chronic hypoxia. These conditions may cause developmental impairment, psychosocial disabilities, or metabolic dysfunction in later life. Previous studies have shown greater incidence of speech and language disabilities, learning impairment, and ncuromotor dysfunction in term SGA infants compared to term appropriate for gestational age (AGA infants. Objective To compare hearing loss in SGA and AGA neonates using otoacoustic emission (OAE tests and to study correlations between maternal risk factors and hearing loss in SGA neonates. Methods A cross-sectional study was performed in St. Borromeus Hospital, Limijati Hospital, and Melinda Hospital in Bandung from February to May 2010. Study subjects consisted of full-term neonates born in these three hospitals. A retrospective medical record review was performed for this Study. Statistical analysis was done by multivariable logistic-regression. Results There was a total of 4279 subjects in our study, including 100 SGA neonates and 4179 AGA neonates. We observed a greater percentage of OAE 'refer' (indicating abnormal OAE results in the SGA group compared to the AGA group (P<0.001, Z=1.3.247. For subjects with OAE ,refer' results, we also analyzed the correlation to the following maternal risk factors: smoking, hypertension, diabetes mellitus and asthma. We also found significant differences between those with and without each of the four maternal risk factors studied (P<0.001. By using multivariant analysis to compare SGA and AGA neonates, we found the odds ratio (OR to be 4.34 (95% CI 2.52 to'7.49, P = 0.001, meaning the SGA group had a 4.34 times higher risk of hearing loss than the AGA group. Conclusion SGA neonates had a higher risk of hearing loss than A(3A neonates. In addition, maternal smoking, hypertension, diabetes mellitus and asthma significantly correlated to

Sample size estimation to substantiate freedom from disease for clustered binary data with a specific risk profile

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kostoulas, P.; Nielsen, Søren Saxmose; Browne, W. J.

2013-01-01

and power when applied to these groups. We propose the use of the variance partition coefficient (VPC), which measures the clustering of infection/disease for individuals with a common risk profile. Sample size estimates are obtained separately for those groups that exhibit markedly different heterogeneity......, thus, optimizing resource allocation. A VPC-based predictive simulation method for sample size estimation to substantiate freedom from disease is presented. To illustrate the benefits of the proposed approach we give two examples with the analysis of data from a risk factor study on Mycobacterium avium...

Heightened aversion to risk and loss in depressed patients with a suicide attempt history.

Science.gov (United States)

Baek, Kwangyeol; Kwon, JaeHyung; Chae, Jeong-Ho; Chung, Yong An; Kralik, Jerald D; Min, Jung-Ah; Huh, HyuJung; Choi, Kyung Mook; Jang, Kuk-In; Lee, Na-Bin; Kim, Sunyoung; Peterson, Bradley S; Jeong, Jaeseung

2017-09-11

Suicide attempters have been found to be impaired in decision-making; however, their specific biases in evaluating uncertain outcomes remain unclear. Here we tested the hypothesis that suicidal behavior is associated with heightened aversion to risk and loss, which might produce negative predictions about uncertain future events. Forty-five depressed patients with a suicide attempt history, 47 nonsuicidal depressed patients, and 75 healthy controls participated in monetary decision-making tasks assessing risk and loss aversion. Suicide attempters compared with the other groups exhibited greater aversion to both risk and loss during gambles involving potential loss. Risk and loss aversion correlated with each other in the depressed patients, suggesting that a common pathophysiological mechanism underlies these biases. In addition, emotion regulation via suppression, a detrimental emotional control strategy, was positively correlated with loss aversion in the depressed patients, also implicating impairment in regulatory processes. A preliminary fMRI study also found disrupted neural responses to potential gains and losses in the subgenual anterior cingulate cortex, insula cortex, and left amygdala, brain regions involved in valuation, emotion reactivity, and emotion regulation. The findings thus implicate heightened negative valuation in decision-making under risk, and impaired emotion regulation in depressed patients with a history of suicide attempts.

Flood risk and insurance loss potential in the Thames Gateway

Science.gov (United States)

Eldridge, J.; Horn, D.

2009-04-01

The Thames Gateway, currently Europe's largest regeneration project, is an area of redevelopment located in the South East of England, with Government plans to create up to 160,000 new homes and 180,000 new jobs by 2016. Although the new development is intended to contribute £12bn annually to the economy, the potential flood risk is high, with much of the area situated on Thames tidal floodplain and vulnerable to both storm surges and peak river flows. This poses significant hazard to those inhabiting the area and has raised concern amongst the UK insurance industry, who would be liable for significant financial claims if a large flood event were to occur, particularly with respect to the number of new homes and businesses being built in flood risk areas. Flood risk and the potential damage to both lives and assets in vulnerable areas have gained substantial recognition, in light of recent flooding events, from both governmental agencies and in the public's awareness of flood hazard. This has resulted in a change in UK policy with planning policy for flood risk (PPS25, Planning Policy Statement 25) adopting a more strategic approach to development, as well as a new Flooding and Water Bill which is due for consultation in 2009. The Government and the Association of British Insurers, who represent the UK insurance industry, have also recently changed their Statement of Principles which guides provision of flood insurance in the future. This PhD research project aims to quantify flood risk in the Thames Gateway area with a view to evaluating the insurance loss potential under different insurance and planning scenarios. Using current sources of inundation extent, and incorporating varying insurance penetration rates and degrees of adoption of planning policy and guidance, it focuses on estimating flood risk under these different scenarios. This presentation introduces the development of the project and the theory and methodology which will be used to address the

The effect of stressed economic conditions on operational risk loss distributions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ja'nel Esterhuysen

2010-12-01

Full Text Available The depth and duration of the credit crisis has highlighted a number of problems in modern finance. Banks have been accused of excessive risk taking, rating agencies of severe conflicts of interest, central banks of neglecting the inflation of asset price bubbles and national supervisors of lax regulatory controls. Credit and market losses have been considerable. Operational losses have also surged as surviving corporates merge or acquire less fortunate ones without the requisite controls. Furthermore, as more jobs get made redundant it is believed that people are getting forced to play their hand to get involved in internal fraud as their sources of income has dried up drastically and stealing from the institution seems to be their last resort.. The main objective of this paper is to establish if there has been a changed in the nature of operational risk with regards to the number of operational losses as well as their impact pre and during the crisis. The way in which operational losses have been affected will be presented and a comparison will be made between operational loss characteristics pre and during the crisis. Some of the main findings of this paper were that operational losses shown little change in frequency, but shown a significant increase in severity, meaning that their financial impact has been more severe during the crisis.  Therefore it is quite safe to say that the financial crisis most defiantly had an impact on operational risk as the impact of operational losses became much more severe

Behavioral and neural correlates of loss aversion and risk avoidance in adolescents and adults.

Science.gov (United States)

Barkley-Levenson, Emily E; Van Leijenhorst, Linda; Galván, Adriana

2013-01-01

Individuals are frequently faced with risky decisions involving the potential for both gain and loss. Exploring the role of both potential gains and potential losses in predicting risk taking is critical to understanding how adolescents and adults make the choice to engage in or avoid a real-life risk. This study aimed to examine the impact of potential losses as well as gains on adolescent decisions during risky choice in a laboratory task. Adolescent (n=18) and adult (n=16) participants underwent functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) during a mixed gambles task, and completed questionnaires measuring real-world risk-taking behaviors. While potential loss had a significantly greater effect on choice than potential gain in both adolescents and adults and there were no behavioral group differences on the task, adolescents recruited significantly more frontostriatal circuitry than adults when choosing to reject a gamble. During risk-seeking behavior, adolescent activation in medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) was negatively correlated with self-reported likelihood of risk taking. During risk-avoidant behavior, mPFC activation of in adults was negatively correlated with self-reported benefits of risk-taking. Taken together, these findings reflect different neural patterns during risk-taking and risk-avoidant behaviors in adolescents and adults. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mutuality and solidarity: assessing risks and sharing losses.

Science.gov (United States)

Wilkie, D

1997-01-01

Mutuality is the principle of private, commercial insurance; individuals enter the pool for sharing losses, and pay according to the best estimate of the risk they bring with them. Solidarity is the sharing of losses with payment according to some other scheme; this is the principle of state social insurance; essential features of solidarity are comprehensiveness and compulsion. Private insurance is subject to the uberrima fides principle, or utmost good faith; each side declares all it knows about the risk. The Disability Discrimination Act requires insurers to justify disability discrimination on the basis of relevant information, acturial, statistical or medical, on which it is reasonable to rely. It could be very damaging to private insurance to abandon uberrima fides. However, although some genetic information is clearly useful to underwriters, other information may be so general as to be of little use. The way in which mortality rates are assessed is also explained. PMID:9304668

Prevalence and Risk Factors of Hearing Loss Using the Korean Working Conditions Survey

Science.gov (United States)

Kwon, Oh Jun

2012-01-01

Background and Objectives The hearing loss of workers can occur when they are affected by age, otologic disease, and work-related risks such as noise and chemicals. Based on the Korean Working Conditions Survey (KWCS) in 2010, this research aimed to estimate the prevalence rate of hearing loss and to identify the risk factors affecting its occurrence. Subjects and Methods The subjects were 10019 employees who completed an interview conducted as part of KWCS in 2010. The prevalence rate of hearing loss according to sex, age, education, income, smoking, drinking, hypertension, industrial type, occupations, employment status, working period, and hazards at the workplace were assessed. The factors that could affect the occurrence of hearing loss were investigated based on a logistic regression analysis. Results The prevalence rate of hearing loss was 2.7%. In a logistic multivariate analysis, sex, age, occupations, working period, noise, and exposure to chemicals showed statistically significant correlations to the occurrence of hearing loss. The adjusted odd ratios were as follows: 1.74 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.03-2.96] for males, 2.11 (95% CI, 1.14-3.89) for those in their 40s, 2.24 (95% CI, 1.19-4.20) for those in their 50s, 2.21 (95% CI, 1.18-4.15) for manage/professional works, 2.73 (95% CI, 1.69-4.41) for manufacturing, 2.07 (95% CI, 1.36-3.15) for those who have worked for more than 20 years, 1.72 (95% CI, 1.14-2.58) for noise exposure, 1.53 (95% CI, 1.02-2.30) for vibration exposure and 1.58 (95% CI, 1.11-2.24) for chemical exposure. Conclusions The overall occupational and non-occupational risk factors related to employees' hearing loss were reviewed. In addition to the exposure to noise, occupational risks of hearing loss, such as isolated exposure to vibration and chemicals, and combined exposure to noise and these hazards, were identified. Multiple exposure to hazards, along with prolonged noise exposure increased the risk of hearing loss. PMID

IT Operational Risk Measurement Model Based on Internal Loss Data of Banks

Science.gov (United States)

Hao, Xiaoling

Business operation of banks relies increasingly on information technology (IT) and the most important role of IT is to guarantee the operational continuity of business process. Therefore, IT Risk management efforts need to be seen from the perspective of operational continuity. Traditional IT risk studies focused on IT asset-based risk analysis and risk-matrix based qualitative risk evaluation. In practice, IT risk management practices of banking industry are still limited to the IT department and aren't integrated into business risk management, which causes the two departments to work in isolation. This paper presents an improved methodology for dealing with IT operational risk. It adopts quantitative measurement method, based on the internal business loss data about IT events, and uses Monte Carlo simulation to predict the potential losses. We establish the correlation between the IT resources and business processes to make sure risk management of IT and business can work synergistically.

Smoking, Smoking Cessation, and the Risk of Hearing Loss: Japan Epidemiology Collaboration on Occupational Health Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, Huanhuan; Sasaki, Naoko; Ogasawara, Takayuki; Nagahama, Satsue; Akter, Shamima; Kuwahara, Keisuke; Kochi, Takeshi; Eguchi, Masafumi; Kashino, Ikuko; Murakami, Taizo; Shimizu, Makiko; Uehara, Akihiko; Yamamoto, Makoto; Nakagawa, Tohru; Honda, Toru; Yamamoto, Shuichiro; Hori, Ai; Nishiura, Chihiro; Okazaki, Hiroko; Imai, Teppei; Nishihara, Akiko; Miyamoto, Toshiaki; Tomita, Kentaro; Kabe, Isamu; Mizoue, Tetsuya; Kunugita, Naoki; Dohi, Seitaro

2018-03-14

We aimed to determine the prospective association of smoking status, smoking intensity, and smoking cessation with the risk of hearing loss in a large Japanese cohort. The cohort study included 50195 employees, who were aged 20-64 years and free of hearing loss at baseline. Participants were followed up for a maximum of 8 years. Pure-tone audiometric testing was performed annually to identify hearing loss at 1 and 4 kHz. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to investigate the association between smoking and hearing loss. During follow-up, 3532 individuals developed high-frequency hearing loss, and 1575 developed low-frequency hearing loss. The hazard ratio (HR) associated with current smokers was 1.6 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.5 to 1.7) and 1.2 (95% CI = 1.1 to 1.4) for high- and low-frequency hearing loss, respectively, as compared with never smokers. The risk of high- and low-frequency hearing loss increased with the number of cigarettes smoked per day (both p for trend hearing loss, respectively. The analysis by quitting years showed a decline in risk of hearing loss after quitting smoking, even among those who quitted less than 5 years before baseline. Smoking is associated with increased risk of hearing loss, especially at the high frequency, in a dose-response manner. The excess risk of hearing loss associated with smoking disappears in a relatively short period after quitting. The prospective association between smoking and hearing loss has not been well studied. To the best of our knowledge, our study is the largest to date investigating the association between smoking and incident hearing loss. Our results indicate that smoking is associated with increased risk of hearing loss in a dose-response manner. Quitting smoking virtually eliminates the excess risk of hearing loss, even among quitters with short duration of cessation. These results suggest that smoking may be a causal factor for hearing loss, although further research would

Catastrophic loss risks: An economic and legal analysis, and a model state statute

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Meyer, M.B.

1984-01-01

Catastrophic loss risk producing facilities or activities are defined as those human enterprises which are theoretically capable of producing some credible event which entails extremely large losses of human life, health, or property. Two examples of catastrophic loss risk producing facilities are examined, commercial nuclear power plants and LNG terminals. These two types of facilities appear to produce a type of externality in that they impose uncompensated loss risk costs on neighbors. Further, these two types of facilities may be quite dependent upon the subsidies implicit in these externalities for their continued economic operation. A model state statute is proposed which would use insurance premiums as an unbiased source of probability and outcome estimates in order to eliminate this externality and the resulting subsidy, and as a way of improving the present situation within certain economic limits

Risk Aversion, Loss Aversion, and the Demand for Insurance

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Louis Eeckhoudt

2018-05-01

Full Text Available In this paper we analyze insurance demand when the utility function depends both upon final wealth and the level of losses or gains relative to a reference point. Besides some comparative statics results, we discuss the links with first-order risk aversion, with the Omega measure, and with a tendency to over-insure modest risks that has been been extensively documented in real insurance markets.

Seismic Risk Assessment and Loss Estimation for Tbilisi City

Science.gov (United States)

Tsereteli, Nino; Alania, Victor; Varazanashvili, Otar; Gugeshashvili, Tengiz; Arabidze, Vakhtang; Arevadze, Nika; Tsereteli, Emili; Gaphrindashvili, Giorgi; Gventcadze, Alexander; Goguadze, Nino; Vephkhvadze, Sophio

2013-04-01

The proper assessment of seismic risk is of crucial importance for society protection and city sustainable economic development, as it is the essential part to seismic hazard reduction. Estimation of seismic risk and losses is complicated tasks. There is always knowledge deficiency on real seismic hazard, local site effects, inventory on elements at risk, infrastructure vulnerability, especially for developing countries. Lately great efforts was done in the frame of EMME (earthquake Model for Middle East Region) project, where in the work packages WP1, WP2 , WP3 and WP4 where improved gaps related to seismic hazard assessment and vulnerability analysis. Finely in the frame of work package wp5 "City Scenario" additional work to this direction and detail investigation of local site conditions, active fault (3D) beneath Tbilisi were done. For estimation economic losses the algorithm was prepared taking into account obtained inventory. The long term usage of building is very complex. It relates to the reliability and durability of buildings. The long term usage and durability of a building is determined by the concept of depreciation. Depreciation of an entire building is calculated by summing the products of individual construction unit' depreciation rates and the corresponding value of these units within the building. This method of calculation is based on an assumption that depreciation is proportional to the building's (constructions) useful life. We used this methodology to create a matrix, which provides a way to evaluate the depreciation rates of buildings with different type and construction period and to determine their corresponding value. Finally loss was estimated resulting from shaking 10%, 5% and 2% exceedance probability in 50 years. Loss resulting from scenario earthquake (earthquake with possible maximum magnitude) also where estimated.

Loss of the First Permanent Molar: Risk Factors and Adolescent Oral Health

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daraí Bárbara Sánchez Montero

2017-02-01

Full Text Available Foundation: the replacement of the primary dentition begins with the eruption of the first permanent molars that will be subjected to various risk factors.Objective: to determine the existing relation between the first permanent molar loss and the risk factors in adolescents from 12 to 14 years old. Method: a cross descriptive study was developed between October 20011 and March 2012. On a universe of 560 students, a simple random sampling was done and a sample of 185 patients was selected. On school visits dental exams were performed to determine the Clune index dental caries index, filled and missing teeth and the simplified index of oral hygiene. The estimated relative risk was used with prevalence odd ratio and prevalence ratio was calculated. The studied variables were: sex, oral hygiene habits, and habits of cariogenic diet bucodental health. Results: the loss of the first permanent molar predominated in the male sex with a 14.1 %. The prevailing risk factor was cariogenic diet which affected 57.3 of the population, where 80.6 of those who had a high consumption showed loss of the first permanent molar. Clune index (53,4 % in the female and 40 % in the male sex, dental caries, filled and lost teeth (1.7 % in female and 2.9 in the male sex were calculated. Conclusion: there is a direct relation between risk factors, poor oral hygiene and cariogenic feeding with the loss of the first permanent molar.

Pandemic risk: how large are the expected losses?

Science.gov (United States)

Fan, Victoria Y; Jamison, Dean T; Summers, Lawrence H

2018-02-01

There is an unmet need for greater investment in preparedness against major epidemics and pandemics. The arguments in favour of such investment have been largely based on estimates of the losses in national incomes that might occur as the result of a major epidemic or pandemic. Recently, we extended the estimate to include the valuation of the lives lost as a result of pandemic-related increases in mortality. This produced markedly higher estimates of the full value of loss that might occur as the result of a future pandemic. We parametrized an exceedance probability function for a global influenza pandemic and estimated that the expected number of influenza-pandemic-related deaths is about 720 000 per year. We calculated that the expected annual losses from pandemic risk to be about 500 billion United States dollars - or 0.6% of global income - per year. This estimate falls within - but towards the lower end of - the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's estimates of the value of the losses from global warming, which range from 0.2% to 2% of global income. The estimated percentage of annual national income represented by the expected value of losses varied by country income grouping: from a little over 0.3% in high-income countries to 1.6% in lower-middle-income countries. Most of the losses from influenza pandemics come from rare, severe events.

Naturally conceived twins with monochorionic placentation have the highest risk of fetal loss

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sperling, Lene; Kiil, C; Larsen, L U

2006-01-01

before 14 + 6 weeks' gestation in order to determine chorionicity. The fetal loss rate, the perinatal, neonatal and infant mortality rates and the frequency of very preterm labor were estimated for the different types of twin. RESULTS: Among the 495 pregnancies (421 DC and 74 MC) 229 (46%) were conceived...... the corresponding figures were 0% (0/10) and 0.4% (1/256). The odds ratio (OR) for very preterm birth-before 28 weeks' gestation-was 4.2 for MC twins compared to DC twins. The relative risk of fetal loss or death among DC twins was 20% of the risk for MC twins. CONCLUSION: The risk of fetal loss, very preterm...... that the maternal age was higher among the mothers of the AR twins....

Reacting to unexpected losses in an uncertain world : High approach individuals become even more risk-seeking

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Tan, Xiaoyue; Van Prooijen, Jan Willem; Proulx, Travis; Wu, Haizheng; Van Beest, Ilja; Van Lange, Paul A M

2017-01-01

Previous research has shown that people are risk-seeking in the face of losses. We propose that this risk-seeking orientation is a palliative approach response to deal with a discrepancy between people's desire to avoid losses versus the possibility of loss. An expectancy violation (which induces

Treatment of Obesity: Weight Loss and Bariatric Surgery

Science.gov (United States)

Wolfe, Bruce M.; Kvach, Elizaveta; Eckel, Robert H.

2016-01-01

This review focuses on the mechanisms underlying, and indications for, bariatric surgery in the reduction of cardiovascular disease (CVD) as well as other expected benefits of this intervention. The fundamental basis for bariatric surgery for the purpose of accomplishing weight loss is the determination that severe obesity is a disease associated with multiple adverse effects on health which can be reversed or improved by successful weight loss in patients who have been unable to sustain weight loss by non-surgical means. An explanation of possible indications for weight loss surgery as well as specific bariatric surgical procedures is presented, along with review of the safety literature of such procedures. Procedures that are less invasive or those that involve less gastrointestinal rearrangement accomplish considerably less weight loss but have substantially lower perioperative and longer-term risk. The ultimate benefit of weight reduction relates to the reduction of the co-morbidities, quality of life and all-cause mortality. With weight loss being the underlying justification for bariatric surgery in ameliorating CVD risk, current evidence-based research is discussed concerning body fat distribution, dyslipidemia, hypertension, diabetes, inflammation, obstructive sleep apnea and others. The rationale for bariatric surgery reducing CVD events is discussed and juxtaposed with impacts on all-cause mortalities. Given the improvement of established obesity-related CVD risk factors following weight loss, it is reasonable to expect a reduction of CVD events and related mortality following weight loss in populations with obesity. The quality of the current evidence is reviewed and future research opportunities and summaries are stated. PMID:27230645

Decisions for Others Are Less Risk-Averse in the Gain Frame and Less Risk-Seeking in the Loss Frame Than Decisions for the Self.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Xiangyi; Liu, Yi; Chen, Xiyou; Shang, Xuesong; Liu, Yongfang

2017-01-01

Despite the fact that people make decisions for others as often as they make decisions for themselves, little is known about how decisions for others are different from those made for the self. In two experiments, we investigated the effect of social distance (i.e., making decisions for oneself, a friend, or a stranger) on risk preferences in both gain and loss situations. We found that people were more risk averse in gain situations when they made decisions for themselves than for a stranger (Studies 1 and 2), but were equally risk averse for themselves and their friends (Study 2). However, people were more risk seeking in loss situations when they made decisions for themselves than for their friends as well as for a stranger, and were more risk seeking for their friends than for a stranger (Study 2). Furthermore, the effect of social distance on risk preferences was stronger in loss than in gain situations. Mediation analysis indicated that outcome-induced loss aversion was responsible for effects of social distance on risk preferences. These findings demonstrate that social distance influences risk preferences via perceived loss aversion, which sheds new light on self-other differences in decision making.

Pediatric chronic pancreatitis is associated with genetic risk factors and substantial disease burden.

Science.gov (United States)

Schwarzenberg, Sarah Jane; Bellin, Melena; Husain, Sohail Z; Ahuja, Monika; Barth, Bradley; Davis, Heather; Durie, Peter R; Fishman, Douglas S; Freedman, Steven D; Gariepy, Cheryl E; Giefer, Matthew J; Gonska, Tanja; Heyman, Melvin B; Himes, Ryan; Kumar, Soma; Morinville, Veronique D; Lowe, Mark E; Nuehring, Neil E; Ooi, Chee Y; Pohl, John F; Troendle, David; Werlin, Steven L; Wilschanski, Michael; Yen, Elizabeth; Uc, Aliye

2015-04-01

To determine the clinical presentation, diagnostic variables, risk factors, and disease burden in children with chronic pancreatitis. We performed a cross-sectional study of data from the International Study Group of Pediatric Pancreatitis: In Search for a Cure, a registry of children with acute recurrent pancreatitis and chronic pancreatitis. Between-group differences were compared using Wilcoxon rank-sum test. Among 170 subjects in the registry, 76 (45%) had chronic pancreatitis; 57% were female, 80% were white; median age at diagnosis was 9.9 years. Pancreatitis-predisposing genetic mutations were identified in 51 (67%) and obstructive risk factors in 25 (33%). Toxic/metabolic and autoimmune factors were uncommon. Imaging demonstrated ductal abnormalities and pancreatic atrophy more commonly than calcifications. Fifty-nine (77%) reported abdominal pain within the past year; pain was reported as constant and receiving narcotics in 28%. Children with chronic pancreatitis reported a median of 3 emergency department visits and 2 hospitalizations in the last year. Forty-seven subjects (70%) missed 1 day of school in the past month as the result of chronic pancreatitis; 26 (34%) missed 3 or more days. Children reporting constant pain were more likely to miss school (P = .002), visit the emergency department (P = .01), and experience hospitalizations (P = .03) compared with children with episodic pain. Thirty-three children (43%) underwent therapeutic endoscopic retrograde pancreatography; one or more pancreatic surgeries were performed in 30 (39%). Chronic pancreatitis occurs at a young age with distinct clinical features. Genetic and obstructive risk factors are common, and disease burden is substantial. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Catastrophe loss modelling of storm-surge flood risk in eastern England.

Science.gov (United States)

Muir Wood, Robert; Drayton, Michael; Berger, Agnete; Burgess, Paul; Wright, Tom

2005-06-15

Probabilistic catastrophe loss modelling techniques, comprising a large stochastic set of potential storm-surge flood events, each assigned an annual rate of occurrence, have been employed for quantifying risk in the coastal flood plain of eastern England. Based on the tracks of the causative extratropical cyclones, historical storm-surge events are categorized into three classes, with distinct windfields and surge geographies. Extreme combinations of "tide with surge" are then generated for an extreme value distribution developed for each class. Fragility curves are used to determine the probability and magnitude of breaching relative to water levels and wave action for each section of sea defence. Based on the time-history of water levels in the surge, and the simulated configuration of breaching, flow is time-stepped through the defences and propagated into the flood plain using a 50 m horizontal-resolution digital elevation model. Based on the values and locations of the building stock in the flood plain, losses are calculated using vulnerability functions linking flood depth and flood velocity to measures of property loss. The outputs from this model for a UK insurance industry portfolio include "loss exceedence probabilities" as well as "average annualized losses", which can be employed for calculating coastal flood risk premiums in each postcode.

Seed loss and volunteer seedling establishment of rapeseed in the northernmost European conditions: potential for weed infestation and GM risks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pirjo Peltonen-Sainio

2014-11-01

Full Text Available Rapeseed soil seed bank development and volunteer plant establishment represent substantial risk for crop infestation and GM contamination. This study was designed to complement such investigations with novel understanding from high latitude conditions. Four experiments were designed to characterise seed loss at harvest, persistence, viability and capacity for volunteer seedling establishment, as well as impact of management measures on soil seed bank dynamics. Oilseed rape was the primary crop investigated due to the availability of GM cultivars and because of the increasing importance. Harvest losses and soil seed bank development were significant. Volunteer seedlings emerged at reasonably high rates, especially in the first autumn after harvest, but about 10% of buried seeds maintained their viability for at least three years. Soil incorporation methods had no major effect on numbers of volunteer seedlings, but herbicide treatments controlled volunteer seedlings efficiently, though not completely, due to irregular timing of seedling emergence.

Noise-induced hearing loss

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mariola Sliwinska-Kowalska

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Noise-induced hearing loss (NIHL still remains a problem in developed countries, despite reduced occupational noise exposure, strict standards for hearing protection and extensive public health awareness campaigns. Therefore NIHL continues to be the focus of noise research activities. This paper summarizes progress achieved recently in our knowledge of NIHL. It includes papers published between the years 2008-2011 (in English, which were identified by a literature search of accessible medical and other relevant databases. A substantial part of this research has been concerned with the risk of NIHL in the entertainment sector, particularly in professional, orchestral musicians. There are also constant concerns regarding noise exposure and hearing risk in "hard to control" occupations, such as farming and construction work. Although occupational noise has decreased since the early 1980s, the number of young people subject to social noise exposure has tripled. If the exposure limits from the Noise at Work Regulations are applied, discotheque music, rock concerts, as well as music from personal music players are associated with the risk of hearing loss in teenagers and young adults. Several recent research studies have increased the understanding of the pathomechanisms of acoustic trauma, the genetics of NIHL, as well as possible dietary and pharmacologic otoprotection in acoustic trauma. The results of these studies are very promising and offer grounds to expect that targeted therapies might help prevent the loss of sensory hair cells and protect the hearing of noise-exposed individuals. These studies emphasize the need to launch an improved noise exposure policy for hearing protection along with developing more efficient norms of NIHL risk assessment.

Exploring Cascading Effects of Multimodal Communication Skills in Infants with Hearing Loss

Science.gov (United States)

Roberts, Megan Y.; Hampton, Lauren H.

2018-01-01

Infants and toddlers with hearing loss (HL) are at risk for developing communicative delays that can have a substantial lasting effect. Understanding child characteristics that may be targeted in early intervention is essential to maximizing communicative outcomes in children with HL. Among the most malleable predictors of communication skills…

Probabilistic Seismic Risk Assessment in Manizales, Colombia:Quantifying Losses for Insurance Purposes

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Mario A.Salgado-Gálvez; Gabriel A.Bernal; Daniela Zuloaga; Mabel C.Marulanda; Omar-Darío Cardona; Sebastián Henao

2017-01-01

A fully probabilistic seismic risk assessment was developed in Manizales,Colombia,considering assets of different types.The first type includes elements that are part of the water and sewage network,and the second type includes public and private buildings.This assessment required the development of a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis that accounts for the dynamic soil response,assembling high resolution exposure databases,and the development of damage models for different types of elements.The economic appraisal of the exposed assets was developed together with specialists of the water utilities company of Manizales and the city administration.The risk assessment was performed using several Comprehensive Approach to Probabilistic Risk Assessment modules as well as the R-System,obtaining results in terms of traditional metrics such as loss exceedance curve,average annual loss,and probable maximum loss.For the case of pipelines,repair rates were also estimated.The results for the water and sewage network were used in activities related to the expansion and maintenance strategies,as well as for the exploration of financial retention and transfer alternatives using insurance schemes based on technical,probabilistic,and prospective damage and loss estimations.In the case of the buildings,the results were used in the update of the technical premium values of the existing collective insurance scheme.

Decisions for Others Are Less Risk-Averse in the Gain Frame and Less Risk-Seeking in the Loss Frame Than Decisions for the Self

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Xiangyi; Liu, Yi; Chen, Xiyou; Shang, Xuesong; Liu, Yongfang

2017-01-01

Despite the fact that people make decisions for others as often as they make decisions for themselves, little is known about how decisions for others are different from those made for the self. In two experiments, we investigated the effect of social distance (i.e., making decisions for oneself, a friend, or a stranger) on risk preferences in both gain and loss situations. We found that people were more risk averse in gain situations when they made decisions for themselves than for a stranger (Studies 1 and 2), but were equally risk averse for themselves and their friends (Study 2). However, people were more risk seeking in loss situations when they made decisions for themselves than for their friends as well as for a stranger, and were more risk seeking for their friends than for a stranger (Study 2). Furthermore, the effect of social distance on risk preferences was stronger in loss than in gain situations. Mediation analysis indicated that outcome-induced loss aversion was responsible for effects of social distance on risk preferences. These findings demonstrate that social distance influences risk preferences via perceived loss aversion, which sheds new light on self-other differences in decision making. PMID:28966604

The relationship between weight loss and time and risk preference parameters: a randomized controlled trial.

Science.gov (United States)

Takada, Akemi; Nakamura, Ryota; Furukawa, Masakazu; Takahashi, Yoshimitsu; Nishimura, Shuzo; Kosugi, Shinji

2011-07-01

This study aimed to assess the effectiveness of intervention (specifically, intervention by telephone and mails, known as 'tele-care') relative to self-help as a weight-loss method. The question of whether there is a correlation between changes in two preference parameters--time discounting (i.e. impatience) and risk aversion--and the level of commitment was examined. The study, spanning a period of 24 weeks in 2006-2007, comprised 118 participants, each of whom was randomly assigned to either the tele-care or the self-help group. A public-health nurse provided support through telephone and mail communications to the tele-care group, aiming to reduce their calorie intake and increase exercise via this intervention. There was a significant decrease in the body weight of the participants of the tele-care group from the baseline; however, there were no significant differences in the weight loss, median time discounting or risk aversion between the two groups. The subsequent analysis for weight loss with changes in time and risk parameters revealed a significant difference in the weight loss in the time-discounting-loss and risk-aversion-gain groups. From the results of the multiple regression analysis, the time discounting was noted to be associated with age, initial BMI and marital status among men, and risk aversion was associated with age and job status among women. There is a possibility that a decrease in time discounting and increase in risk aversion might correlate with the weight loss or effectiveness of commitment in this trial. This study suggests that time discounting and risk aversion may be useful in anti-obesity efforts, since they are accurate criteria of behavioural patterns associated with weight problems. © Cambridge University Press, 2011

[Hearing loss and idoneity--the segnalation of noise-induced hearing loss hearing Loss].

Science.gov (United States)

Albera, Roberto; Dagna, Federico; Cassandro, Claudia; Canale, Andrea

2011-01-01

Work idoneity in hearing loss must be related to working ability and evolution risks. Working ability is referred to the difficulties found in speech comprehension and in signals perception. As regards hearing loss evolution it is necessary to define if the subject is affected by conductive or neurosensorial hearing loss. In conductive hearing loss it is necessary to evaluate entity and frequential distribution of the deficit. In neurosensorial hearing loss it is necessary to distinguish between noise-induced hearing loss and extraprofessional hearing loss. In noise-induced hearing loss the evolution risk is high if the noise exposure is less than 10-15 years or the actual noise exposure is louder than the former. In case of extraprofessional hearing loss the evolution risk is higher in presbycusis, endolymphatic hydrops and toxic hearing loss. The necessity to report the presence on professionale noise-induced hearing loss arises if audiometric threshold is more than 25 dB at 0.5-1-2-3-4 kHz and if it is verified the professional origine of hearing loss.

Knowledge Loss Risk Assessment in Education and Industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pleslic, Sanda; Varas, Gonzalo Jimenez

2014-01-01

Knowledge management is based on the idea that the most valuable resource of some organisation is the knowledge of its people. Organisational performances will depend, among many other things, on how effectively its people can create new knowledge, share knowledge in organisation, and use that knowledge to achieve higher efficiency and the best results. The aim of knowledge management is not necessarily to manage all knowledge, just the knowledge that is most important to the organisation. It is about ensuring that people have the knowledge they need, where and when they need it. Knowledge is derived from information but it is richer and more meaningful than information. In organisational terms, knowledge is generally considered as 'knowing how', or 'applied action'. Organisational knowledge is often classified as explicit and tacit knowledge. Explicit knowledge can be captured and written down in documents or databases. Tacit knowledge is the knowledge that people carry in their heads and can be difficult to access. Tacit knowledge is considered more valuable because it provides context for people, ideas and experiences. Knowledge management is discipline consisting of three components: people, processes and technology. These three components are often compared to the legs of stool- if one is missing, the stool will collapse. However, one component is more important than the others- people. What happens when someone leaves an organisation? Does the organisation feel knowledge loss? According intellectual capital theory organisation will lose not only human capital but also social, structural and relational capital. Determining what happens when these valuable experts leave may help organisation to better understand the impact of knowledge loss and formulate appropriate action in future. Management of knowledge loss is process consisting of three steps: risk assessment, determination of approach for critical knowledge capturing, and monitoring

Evaluation of the risk of noise-induced hearing loss among unscreened male industrial workers

Science.gov (United States)

Prince, Mary M.; Gilbert, Stephen J.; Smith, Randall J.; Stayner, Leslie T.

2003-02-01

Variability in background risk and distribution of various risk factors for hearing loss may explain some of the diversity in excess risk of noise-induced hearing loss (NIHL). This paper examines the impact of various risk factors on excess risk estimates of NIHL using data from the 1968-1972 NIOSH Occupational Noise and Hearing Survey (ONHS). Previous analyses of a subset of these data focused on 1172 highly ``screened'' workers. In the current analysis, an additional 894 white males (609 noise-exposed and 285 controls), who were excluded for various reasons (i.e., nonoccupational noise exposure, otologic or medical conditions affecting hearing, prior occupational noise exposure) have been added (n=2066) to assess excess risk of noise-induced material impairment in an unscreened population. Data are analyzed by age, duration of exposure, and sound level (8-h TWA) for four different definitions of noise-induced hearing impairment, defined as the binaural pure-tone average (PTA) hearing threshold level greater than 25 dB for the following frequencies: (a) 1-4 kHz (PTA1234), (b) 1-3 kHz (PTA123), (c) 0.5, 1, and 2 kHz (PTA512), and (d) 3, 4, and 6 kHz (PTA346). Results indicate that populations with higher background risks of hearing loss may show lower excess risks attributable to noise relative to highly screened populations. Estimates of lifetime excess risk of hearing impairment were found to be significantly different between screened and unscreened population for noise levels greater than 90 dBA. Predicted age-related risk of material hearing impairment in the ONHS unscreened population was similar to that predicted from Annex B and C of ANSI S3.44 for ages less than 60 years. Results underscore the importance of understanding differential risk patterns for hearing loss and the use of appropriate reference (control) populations when evaluating risk of noise-induced hearing impairment among contemporary industrial populations.

Evaluation of family history of permanent hearing loss in childhood as a risk indicator in universal screening.

Science.gov (United States)

Valido Quintana, Mercedes; Oviedo Santos, Ángeles; Borkoski Barreiro, Silvia; Santana Rodríguez, Alfredo; Ramos Macías, Ángel

Sixty percent of prelingual hearing loss is of genetic origin. A family history of permanent childhood hearing loss is a risk factor. The objective of the study is to determine the relationship between this risk factor and hearing loss. We have evaluated clinical and epidemiological characteristics and related nonsyndromic genetic variation. This was a retrospective, descriptive and observational study of newborns between January 2007 and December 2010 with family history as risk factor for hearing loss using transient evoked otoacoustic emissions and auditory brainstem response. A total of 26,717 children were born. Eight hundred and fifty-seven (3.2%) had family history. Fifty-seven(0.21%) failed to pass the second test. A percentage of 29.1 (n=16) had another risk factor, and 17.8% (n=9) had no classical risk factor. No risk factor was related to the hearing loss except heart disease. Seventy-six point four percent had normal hearing and 23.6% hearing loss. The mean of family members with hearing loss was 1.25. On genetic testing, 82.86% of homozygotes was normal, 11.43% heterozygosity in Connexin 26 gene (35delG), 2.86% R143W heterozygosity in the same gene and 2.86% mutant homozygotes (35delG). We found no relationship between hearing loss and mutated allele. The percentage of children with a family history and hearing loss is higher than expected in the general population. The genetic profile requires updating to clarify the relationship between hearing loss and heart disease, family history and the low prevalence in the mutations analyzed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier España, S.L.U. and Sociedad Española de Otorrinolaringología y Cirugía de Cabeza y Cuello. All rights reserved.

On the descriptive value of loss aversion in decisions under risk: Six clarifications

OpenAIRE

Eyal Ert; Ido Erev

2013-01-01

Previous studies of loss aversion in decisions under risk have led to mixed results. Losses appear to loom larger than gains in some settings, but not in others. The current paper clarifies these results by highlighting six experimental manipulations that tend to increase the likelihood of the behavior predicted by loss aversion. These manipulations include: (1) framing of the safe alternative as the status quo; (2) ensuring that the choice pattern predicted by loss aversion maximizes the pro...

The ability of cover crops to reduce nitrogen and phosphorus losses from arable land in southern Scandinavia and Finland

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Aronsson, H.; Hansen, Elly Møller; Thomsen, Ingrid Kaag

2016-01-01

]). The data indicate that CCs do not substantially reduce total P losses by runoff and leaching. The effects of CCs on total P leaching varied between a relative increase of 86% and a decrease of 43%. Climate conditions involving freezing-thawing during winter increased the risk of losses of dissolved P from...

Knowledge Management (KM) Risk Assessment of Critical Knowledge Loss in an Organization with Expanding Nuclear Power Program

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mohsin, M.

2014-01-01

Risk and KM risk assessment of critical knowledge loss: • Risk is defined in the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK,2004) as an event or unclear situation that will influence the timing, cost and quality of a project. • This study considers attrition due to retirements of its workforce -- A risk for the organization as it has implications of loss of knowledge for the organization and thereby on its quality and output. • This study assesses the magnitude of the anticipated Risk of Knowledge Loss in three Operational NPPs namely CNPGS (C-1 and C-2) and K-1 based on the factor of Time until Retirement

Early evaluation of patient risk for substantial weight gain during olanzapine treatment for schizophrenia, schizophreniform, or schizoaffective disorder

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hardy Thomas A

2008-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background To make well informed treatment decisions for their patients, clinicians need credible information about potential risk for substantial weight gain. We therefore conducted a post-hoc analysis of clinical trial data, examining early weight gain as a predictor of later substantial weight gain. Methods Data from 669 (Study 1 and 102 (Study 2 olanzapine-treated patients diagnosed with schizophrenia, schizophreniform, or schizoaffective disorder were analyzed to identify and validate weight gain cut-offs at Weeks 1–4 that were predictive of substantial weight gain (defined as an increase of ≥ 5, 7, 10 kg or 7% of baseline weight after approximately 30 weeks of treatment. Baseline characteristics alone, baseline characteristics plus weight change from baseline to Weeks 1, 2, 3 or 4, and weight change from baseline to Weeks 1, 2, 3, or 4 alone were evaluated as predictors of substantial weight gain. Similar analyses were performed to determine BMI increase cut-offs at Weeks 1–4 of treatment that were predictive of substantial increase in BMI (1, 2 or 3 kg/m2 increase from baseline. Results At Weeks 1 and 2, predictions based on early weight gain plus baseline characteristics were more robust than those based on early weight gain alone. However, by Weeks 3 and 4, there was little difference between the operating characteristics associated with these two sets of predictors. The positive predictive values ranged from 30.1% to 73.5%, while the negative predictive values ranged from 58.1% to 89.0%. Predictions based on early BMI increase plus baseline characteristics were not uniformly more robust at any time compared to those based on early BMI increase alone. The positive predictive values ranged from 38.3% to 83.5%, while negative predictive values ranged from 42.1% to 84.7%. For analyses of both early weight gain and early BMI increase, results for the validation dataset were similar to those observed in the primary dataset

Implantation of Right Kidneys: Is the Risk of Technical Graft Loss Real?

Science.gov (United States)

Khan, Taqi T; Ahmad, Nadeem; Siddique, Kashif; Fourtounas, Konstantinos

2018-05-01

The left kidney (LK) is preferred by transplant surgeons, because its vein is always of good length and has a thick wall that enables safe suturing. On the other hand, the right renal vein is generally shorter and thinner walled, and well known for its technical difficulty during venous anastomosis, and can result in graft loss. We examined our living (LD) and deceased donor (DD) recipient data and compared the incidence of technical graft loss and early graft function in right and left kidneys. A cohort of 58 adult and pediatric recipients received an LD or DD kidney between January 2015 and December 2016. The donor and recipient data were retrieved and retrospectively analyzed. Technical graft loss was defined as graft thrombosis within the 7 days after transplant. Right kidneys (RKs) were not a risk factor for technical graft loss, and no graft was lost for technical reasons in either LD or DD transplants. Early graft function in LK and RKs was also comparable in the LD cohort, and there were no LKs in the DD cohort. Based on our data, the use of RKs was not a risk factor for technical graft loss and early graft function was comparable to LKs.

Assessment of winter wheat loss risk impacted by climate change from 1982 to 2011

Science.gov (United States)

Du, Xin

2017-04-01

The world's farmers will face increasing pressure to grow more food on less land in succeeding few decades, because it seems that the continuous population growth and agricultural products turning to biofuels would extend several decades into the future. Therefore, the increased demand for food supply worldwide calls for improved accuracy of crop productivity estimation and assessment of grain production loss risk. Extensive studies have been launched to evaluate the impacts of climate change on crop production based on various crop models drove with global or regional climate model (GCM/RCM) output. However, assessment of climate change impacts on agriculture productivity is plagued with uncertainties of the future climate change scenarios and complexity of crop model. Therefore, given uncertain climate conditions and a lack of model parameters, these methods are strictly limited in application. In this study, an empirical assessment approach for crop loss risk impacted by water stress has been established and used to evaluate the risk of winter wheat loss in China, United States, Germany, France and United Kingdom. The average value of winter wheat loss risk impacted by water stress for the three countries of Europe is about -931kg/ha, which is obviously higher in contrast with that in China (-570kg/ha) and in United States (-367kg/ha). Our study has important implications for further application of operational assessment of crop loss risk at a country or region scale. Future studies should focus on using higher spatial resolution remote sensing data, combining actual evapo-transpiration to estimate water stress, improving the method for downscaling of statistic crop yield data, and establishing much more rational and elaborate zoning method.

Poor health as a potential risk factor for job loss due to automation: the case of Norway.

Science.gov (United States)

Hessel, Philipp; Christiansen, Solveig; Skirbekk, Vegard

2018-03-01

This study aimed to quantify the extent to which health characteristics of workers are related to the potential risk of experiencing job displacement due to automation. Linking the 2015 Norwegian Statistics on Income and Living Conditions survey (n=6393) with predicted probabilities of automation by occupation, we used Kruskal-Wallis tests and multivariate generalised linear models to assess the association between long-standing illnesses and risk of job automation. Individuals with long-standing illnesses face substantially greater risks of losing their job due to automation. Whereas the average risk of job automation is 57% for men and 49% for women with long-standing illnesses, the risk is only 50% for men and 44% for women with limitations (pjob automation among men (risk ratio (RR) 1.13, 95% CI 1.09 to 1.19), as well as women (RR 1.11, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.17). While, among men, the association between long-standing illness and risk of job automation remains significant when controlling for education and income, it becomes insignificant among women. Individuals with poor health are likely to carry the highest burden of technological change in terms of worsening employment prospects because of working in occupations disproportionally more likely to be automated. Although the extent of technology-related job displacement will depend on several factors, given the far-reaching negative consequences of job loss on health and well-being, this process represents a significant challenge for public health and social equity. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

The Effects of Subjective Loss of Control on Risk-taking Behavior: The Mediating Role of Anger

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Birgit M. Beisswingert

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Based on the Appraisal Tendency Framework on the antecedents and consequences of emotions two experimental studies examined the relationship between externally caused loss of control experiences and risk-taking behavior, as well as the assumed mediation of this relationship by the emotion anger. An experimental paradigm for inducing externally caused and consequently externally attributed loss of control which should lead to experiences of anger was developed and pretested in a Pilot Study. The relationship between loss of control experiences, anger and risk-taking behavior was investigated using two separate student samples from Germany (N = 84, 54% female and China (N = 125; 64% female. In line with our hypotheses, results showed that anger mediated the link between subjective loss of control experiences and increasing risk-taking behavior. Multiple group comparisons revealing similar patterns in both samples affirmed the results’ cross-cultural generalizability. These results implicate that anger makes people less risk averse in the process of economic decision making.

The effects of subjective loss of control on risk-taking behavior: the mediating role of anger

Science.gov (United States)

Beisswingert, Birgit M.; Zhang, Keshun; Goetz, Thomas; Fang, Ping; Fischbacher, Urs

2015-01-01

Based on the Appraisal Tendency Framework on the antecedents and consequences of emotions two experimental studies examined the relationship between externally caused loss of control experiences and risk-taking behavior, as well as the assumed mediation of this relationship by the emotion anger. An experimental paradigm for inducing externally caused and consequently externally attributed loss of control which should lead to experiences of anger was developed and pretested in a Pilot Study. The relationship between loss of control experiences, anger, and risk-taking behavior was investigated using two separate student samples from Germany (N = 84, 54% female) and China (N = 125; 64% female). In line with our hypotheses, results showed that anger mediated the link between subjective loss of control experiences and increasing risk-taking behavior. Multiple group comparisons revealing similar patterns in both samples affirmed the results’ cross-cultural generalizability. These results implicate that anger makes people less risk averse in the process of economic decision making. PMID:26217244

Evaluation of knowledge loss risk in nuclear industry and research organizations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Constantin, Marin; Apostol, Minodora; Balaceanu, Victoria

2007-01-01

Institutional knowledge is defined as a collective knowledge of all employees in an organization or institution. The necessity to maintain organizational competency for nuclear power has been widely recognized given the nature of the business and the life cycle of 100 years or more. Our paper is intended to perform the first step in the knowledge loss risk assessment in nuclear organizations in Romania. Generally a three step procedure is needed for the evaluation process: - conducting the knowledge loss risk assessment; - determination of the approach needed to capture critical knowledge; - monitoring and evaluation. Taking into account the specificity of problems at organizational/institutional level, the difficulty of finding of a common approach, and the necessity to harmonize different interests at national level, a National Nuclear Knowledge Strategy is compulsory needed. (authors)

Newborn hearing screening program: association between hearing loss and risk factors

OpenAIRE

Pereira, Priscila Karla Santana; Martins, Adriana de Souza; Vieira, Márcia Ribeiro; Azevedo, Marisa Frasson de

2007-01-01

BACKGROUND: hearing loss in newborns. Aim: to verify the prevalence of auditory alterations in newborns of Hospital São Paulo (hospital), observing if there are any correlations with the following variables: birth weight, gestational age, relation weight/gestational age and risk factors for hearing loss. METHOD: A retrospective analysis of the hospital records of 1696 newborns; 648 records of preterm infants and 1048 records of infants born at term. All of the infants had been submitted to an...

Distortion risk measures for sums of dependent losses | Brahimi ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

... of losses and possible correlations between risk components. Resume. Nous discutons deux approches distinctes, de distortion des mesures de risque de la somme de variables al´eatoires d´ependantes, qui conservent la propri´et´e de coh´erence. La premi`ere, bas´ee sur les esp´erances distordues, agit sur la fonction ...

Beyond gains and losses: the effect of need on risky choice in framed decisions.

Science.gov (United States)

Mishra, Sandeep; Fiddick, Laurence

2012-06-01

Substantial evidence suggests people are risk-averse when making decisions described in terms of gains and risk-prone when making decisions described in terms of losses, a phenomenon known as the framing effect. Little research, however, has examined whether framing effects are a product of normative risk-sensitive cognitive processes. In 5 experiments, it is demonstrated that framing effects in the Asian disease problem can be explained by risk-sensitivity theory, which predicts that decision makers adjust risk acceptance on the basis of minimal acceptable thresholds, or need. Both explicit and self-determined need requirements eliminated framing effects and affected risk acceptance consistent with risk-sensitivity theory. Furthermore, negative language choice in loss frames conferred the perception of high need and led to the construction of higher minimal acceptable thresholds. The results of this study suggest that risk-sensitivity theory provides a normative rationale for framing effects based on sensitivity to minimal acceptable thresholds, or needs. 2012 APA, all rights reserved

Increase in Fracture Risk Following Unintentional Weight Loss in Postmenopausal Women: The Global Longitudinal Study of Osteoporosis in Women†

Science.gov (United States)

Compston, Juliet E.; Wyman, A; FitzGerald, Gordon; Adachi, Jonathan D.; Chapurlat, Roland D.; Cooper, Cyrus; Díez-Pérez, Adolfo; Gehlbach, Stephen H; Greenspan, Susan L.; Hooven, Frederick H.; LaCroix, Andrea Z.; March, Lyn; Coen Netelenbos, J.; Nieves, Jeri W.; Pfeilschifter, Johannes; Rossini, Maurizio; Roux, Christian; Saag, Kenneth G.; Siris, Ethel S.; Silverman, Stuart; Watts, Nelson B.; Anderson, Frederick A.

2016-01-01

Increased fracture risk has been associated with weight loss in postmenopausal women but the time course over which this occurs has not been established. The aim of this study was to examine the effects of unintentional weight loss of ≥10 lb (4.5 kg) in postmenopausal women on fracture risk at multiple sites up to 5 years following weight loss. Using data from the Global Longitudinal Study of Osteoporosis in Women (GLOW) we analyzed the relationships between self-reported unintentional weight loss of ≥10 lb at baseline, year 2, or year 3 and incident clinical fracture in the years following weight loss. Complete data were available in 40,179 women (mean age ± SD 68 ± 8.3 years). Five-year cumulative fracture rate was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method, and adjusted hazard ratios for weight loss as a time-varying covariate were calculated from Cox multiple regression models. Unintentional weight loss at baseline was associated with a significantly increased risk of fracture of the clavicle, wrist, spine, rib, hip, and pelvis for up to 5 years following weight loss. Adjusted hazard ratios showed a significant association between unintentional weight loss and fracture of the hip, spine, and clavicle within 1 year of weight loss, and these associations were still present at 5 years. These findings demonstrate increased fracture risk at several sites after unintentional weight loss in postmenopausal women. This increase is seen as early as 1 year following weight loss, emphasizing the need for prompt fracture risk assessment and appropriate management to reduce fracture risk in this population. PMID:26861139

Metabolic Syndrome Increases the Risk of Sudden Sensorineural Hearing Loss in Taiwan: A Case-Control Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Chien, Chen-Yu; Tai, Shu-Yu; Wang, Ling-Feng; Hsi, Edward; Chang, Ning-Chia; Wu, Ming-Tsang; Ho, Kuen-Yao

2015-07-01

Sudden sensorineural hearing loss has been reported to be associated with diabetes mellitus, hypertension, and hyperlipidemia in previous studies. The aim of this study was to examine whether metabolic syndrome increases the risk of sudden sensorineural hearing loss in Taiwan. A case-control study. Tertiary university hospital. We retrospectively investigated 181 cases of sudden sensorineural hearing loss and 181 controls from the Department of Otorhinolaryngology, Kaohsiung Medical University Hospital, in southern Taiwan from 2010 to 2012, comparing their clinical variables. We analyzed the relationship between metabolic syndrome and sudden sensorineural hearing loss. Metabolic syndrome was defined according to the National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III with Asian modifications. The demographic and clinical characteristics, audiometry results, and outcome were reviewed. Subjects with metabolic syndrome had a 3.54-fold increased risk (95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.00-6.43, P diabetes mellitus, hypertension, and hyperlipidemia. With increases in the number of metabolic syndrome components, the risk of sudden sensorineural hearing loss increased (P for trend Vertigo was associated with a poor outcome (P = .02; 95% CI = 1.13~5.13, adjusted odds ratio = 2.39). The hearing loss pattern may influence the outcome of sudden sensorineural hearing loss (P Vertigo and total hearing loss were indicators of a poor outcome in sudden sensorineural hearing loss. © American Academy of Otolaryngology—Head and Neck Surgery Foundation 2015.

Potential Impact of Risk and Loss Aversion on the Process of Accepting Kidneys for Transplantation.

Science.gov (United States)

Heilman, Raymond L; Green, Ellen P; Reddy, Kunam S; Moss, Adyr; Kaplan, Bruce

2017-07-01

Behavioral economic theory suggests that people make decisions based on maximizing perceived value; however, this may be influenced more by the risk of loss rather than of potential gain. Additionally, individuals may seek certainty over uncertainty. These are termed loss aversion and risk aversion, respectively. Loss aversion is particularly sensitive to how the decision is "framed." Thus, labeling a kidney as high Kidney Donor Profile Index results in higher discard rates because this creates a nonlinearity in perceived risk. There is also evidence that the perceived loss due to regulatory sanction results in increased organ discard rates. This may be due to the overuse of terminology that stresses regulatory sanctions and thus perpetuates fear of loss through a form of nudging. Our goal is to point out how these concepts of behavioral economics may negatively influence the decision process to accept these suboptimal organs. We hope to make the community more aware of these powerful psychological influences and thus potentially increase the utilization of these suboptimal organs. Further, we would urge regulatory bodies to avoid utilizing strategies that frame outcomes in terms of loss due to flagging and build models that are less prone to uncertain expected versus observed outcomes.

Analysis of risk factors associated with unilateral hearing loss in children who initially passed newborn hearing screening.

Science.gov (United States)

Appelbaum, Eric N; Howell, Jessica B; Chapman, Derek; Pandya, Arti; Dodson, Kelley M

2018-03-01

To analyze 2007 Joint Committee on Infant Hearing (JCIH) risk factors in children with confirmed unilateral hearing loss (UHL) who initially passed newborn hearing screening. Retrospective record review of 16,108 infants who passed newborn hearing screening but had one or more JCIH risk factors prompting subsequent follow-up through the universal newborn hearing screening (UNHS) program in Virginia from 2010 to 2012. The study was reviewed and qualified as exempt by the Virginia Commonwealth University Institutional Review Board (IRB) and the Virginia Department of Health. Over the 2-year study period, 14896 (4.9% of total births) children passed UNHS but had the presence of one or more JCIH risk factor. Ultimately, we identified 121 babies from this group with confirmed hearing loss (0.7%), with 48 babies (0.2%) showing UHL. The most common risk factors associated with the development of confirmed UHL after passing the initial screen were neonatal indicators, craniofacial anomalies, family history, and stigmata of syndrome associated with hearing loss. Neonatal indicators and craniofacial anomalies were the categories most often found in children with confirmed unilateral hearing loss who initially passed their newborn hearing screen. While neonatal indicators were also the most common associated risk factor in all hearing loss, craniofacial abnormalities are relatively more common in children with UHL who initially passed newborn hearing screening. Further studies assessing the etiology underlying the hearing loss and risk factor associations are warranted. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Bayesian approach for predicting risk of autonomous underwater vehicle loss during their missions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brito, Mario; Griffiths, Gwyn

2016-01-01

Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) are effective platforms for science research and monitoring, and for military and commercial data-gathering purposes. However, there is an inevitable risk of loss during any mission. Quantifying the risk of loss is complex, due to the combination of vehicle reliability and environmental factors, and cannot be determined through analytical means alone. An alternative approach – formal expert judgment – is a time-consuming process; consequently a method is needed to broaden the applicability of judgments beyond the narrow confines of an elicitation for a defined environment. We propose and explore a solution founded on a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN), where the results of the expert judgment elicitation are taken as the initial prior probability of loss due to failure. The network topology captures the causal effects of the environment separately on the vehicle and on the support platform, and combines these to produce an updated probability of loss due to failure. An extended version of the Kaplan–Meier estimator is then used to update the mission risk profile with travelled distance. Sensitivity analysis of the BBN is presented and a case study of Autosub3 AUV deployment in the Amundsen Sea is discussed in detail. - Highlights: • Novel method to estimate risk of autonomous vehicle loss in uncertain environments. • A framework to integrate frequentist and subjective probability modelling. • A Bayesian belief updating method for capturing variation in operating environment. • Graphical approach for sensitivity analysis, applicable to any BBN model validation. • Pragmatic case studies showing the application of the proposed framework.

A bayesian nework based risk model for volume loss in soft soils in mechanized bored tunnels

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Chivatá Cárdenas, Ibsen; Al-Jibouri, Saad H.S.; Halman, Johannes I.M.

2012-01-01

Volume loss is one of the most important risks when boring a tunnel. This is particularly true when a tunnel is being constructed in soft soils. The risk of excessive volume loss, if materialised can lead to large consequences such as damage in buildings on the surface. This paper describes the

Assessing the Risk of K-loss within the Belgian TSO

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bernard, B.

2016-01-01

Full text: Organisations lose knowledge. Considering knowledge as a valuable asset, attention must be paid to the risk of losing it. The contribution of this paper is to propose a model—the knowledge critical grid (KCG)—that aims at assessing the risk of knowledge loss. Applied within the Belgian TSO, this model focuses on community-of-practices and network issues. Grounded on five knowledge issues, the KCG intends to assess the knowledge volatility and vulnerability levels of an organisation and define the best relevant knowledge management actions. (author).

The risk ratio for development of hereditary sensorineural hearing loss in consanguineous marriage offspring.

Science.gov (United States)

Sanyelbhaa, Hossam; Kabel, Abdelmagied; Abo El-Naga, Heba Abd El-Rehem; Sanyelbhaa, Ahmed; Salem, Hatem

2017-10-01

This study aims to define the relative risk of development of hearing loss in offspring of consanguineous marriages. This is a retrospective case-control study conducted in a tertiary referral center in Jeddah, KSA. The study group included 1600 probands (848 males, 752 females), with age range 0.5-12 years (6.6 ± 3.6). The study group comprised of two equal, age and sex matched subgroups; Hearing Loss (HL) group and Normal Hearing (NH) group. The children included in the HL group should have idiopathic or non syndromic genetic sensorineural hearing loss. The HL Group comprised 800 children with variable degrees of sensorineural hearing loss. Profound and severe degrees of hearing loss were the most prevalent degrees (P marriage offspring in the NH group was 42.5%, while in the HL group it was 68.9% (P  0.05). The relative risk and 95% confidence interval (RR, 95% CI) for development of hearing loss in offspring of consanguineous marriage was 1.76 (95% CI 1.57-1.97, P marriage progeny to develop SNHL when compared to non consanguineous progeny. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Benefits and risks of weight-loss treatment for older, obese women

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rossen LM

2013-02-01

Full Text Available Lauren M Rossen,1,2 Vanessa A Milsom,1,3 Kathryn R Middleton,1,4 Michael J Daniels,5,6 Michael G Perri1,71Department of Clinical and Health Psychology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA; 2National Center for Health Statistics, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Hyattsville, MD, USA; 3Department of Psychiatry, Yale University School of Medicine, New Haven, CT, USA; 4Weight Control and Diabetes Research Center, Department of Psychiatry and Human Behavior, Warren Alpert Medical School of Brown University and The Miriam Hospital, Providence, RI, USA; 5Department of Statistics, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA; 6Division of Statistics and Scientific Computation, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, USA; 7College of Public Health and Health Professions, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USABackground: A key issue in the treatment of obesity in older adults is whether the health benefits of weight loss outweigh the potential risks with respect to musculoskeletal injury.Objective: To compare change in weight, improvements in metabolic risk factors, and reported musculoskeletal adverse events in middle-aged (50–59 years and older (65–74 years, obese women.Materials and methods: Participants completed an initial 6-month lifestyle intervention for weight loss, comprised of weekly group sessions, followed by 12 months of extended care with biweekly contacts. Weight and fasting blood samples were assessed at baseline, month 6, and month 18; data regarding adverse events were collected throughout the duration of the study.Results: Both middle-aged (n = 162 and older (n = 56 women achieved significant weight reductions from baseline to month 6 (10.1 ± 0.68 kg and 9.3 ± 0.76 kg, respectively and maintained a large proportion of their losses at month 18 (7.6 ± 0.87 kg and 7.6 ± 1.3 kg, respectively; there were no significant differences between the two groups with respect to weight change. Older women further

Modelling IT risk in banking industry : A study on how to calculate the aggregate loss distribution of IT risk

OpenAIRE

Isaksson, Didrik

2017-01-01

Background: Lack of internal data makes some operational risks hard to calculate with quantitative models. This is true for the IT risk or the risk that a bank will experience losses caused by IT System and Infrastructure failure. IT systems and infrastructure are getting more predominant and important in the banking industry which makes the IT risk even more important to quantify.  Purpose: The aim of this thesis is to find an appropriate way of modelling IT risk for the banking industry. Th...

Perdas extremas em mercados de risco Extreme losses in risk markets

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ronaldo A Arraes

2006-12-01

Full Text Available Neste artigo, infere-se sobre a distribuição de valores extremos de uma variável aleatória representada pelas severas perdas diárias em investimentos financeiros. A Teoria dos Valores Extremos (TVE fundamenta a modelagem de eventos gravosos raros, com expressivas conseqüências econômicas associadas a probabilidades muito pequenas de ocorrerem. Uma das grandes preocupações, na análise de riscos, é desenvolver técnicas para prever essas ocorrências excepcionais. Assim, as caudas das distribuições desses eventos raros são importantes para o estudo do risco, tornando a TVE uma ferramenta de grande valia para a estimação mais acurada do risco dessas perdas elevadas. Investigou-se, neste trabalho, a estimação de perdas máximas esperadas para séries financeiras, empregando-se: i métodos tradicionais, que utilizaram todos os dados amostrais para analisar a variável aleatória em questão e ii a metodologia dos Valores Extremos, particularmente a da Distribuição Generalizada dos Valores Extremos (DGVE, que utilizou apenas um conjunto de máximos amostrais para a estimação das perdas máximas esperadas. Concluiu-se que os métodos tradicionais subestimaram as perdas esperadas, sobretudo nas proximidades dos limites das caudas das distribuições, e que a DGVE mostrou-se bem mais eficiente na previsão dessas perdas extremas nas séries analisadas: Ibovespa, Merval, Dow Jones.This paper aims to infer about the distribution of extremes values of a continuous random variable, represented as the severe daily losses in financial markets investments. The Extreme Value Theory (EVT plays a fundamental role in modeling rare events associated with great losses and very small probabilities of occurrence. One of the great concerns in risk management is to develop analytic techniques to foresee those exceptions. In that way, the tails of the rare losses' probability density function (pdf are of great importance in evaluating that kind of

Relationship Between Changes in Fat and Lean Depots Following Weight Loss and Changes in Cardiovascular Disease Risk Markers.

Science.gov (United States)

Clifton, Peter M

2018-04-04

Gluteofemoral fat mass has been associated with improved cardiovascular disease risk factors. It is not clear if loss of this protective fat during weight loss partially negates the effect of loss of visceral fat. The aim of this study was to examine regional fat loss in a large weight-loss cohort from one center and to determine if fat loss in the leg and total lean tissue loss is harmful. We combined the data from 7 of our previously published 3-month weight-loss studies and examined the relationship between regional fat and lean tissue loss and changes in cardiovascular disease risk factors in 399 participants. At baseline, leg fat was positively associated with high-density lipoprotein cholesterol in women and inversely with fasting triglyceride level in both sexes. Abdominal lean tissue was also related to systolic blood pressure in men. Changes in regional fat and lean tissue were positively associated with changes in glucose, insulin, total cholesterol, triglycerides, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and systolic and diastolic blood pressure ( r =0.11-0.22, P lean tissue dominating in multivariate regression. After adjustment for total weight or total fat change, these relationships disappeared except for a positive relationship between arm and lean leg mass loss and changes in triglycerides and systolic blood pressure. Loss of leg fat and leg lean tissue was directly associated with beneficial changes in cardiovascular disease risk markers. Loss of lean tissue may not have an adverse effect on cardiovascular disease risk, and measures to retain lean tissue during weight loss may not be necessary. © 2018 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

Evaluation of very low birth weight (≤ 1,500 g) as a risk indicator for sensorineural hearing loss.

Science.gov (United States)

Borkoski-Barreiro, Silvia A; Falcón-González, Juan C; Limiñana-Cañal, José M; Ramos-Macías, Angel

2013-01-01

Hearing plays an essential role in the acquisition, development and maintenance of the properties of the speech and language. Birth weight is an indicator of biological maturation of the newborn. Premature newborns with very low birth weight (VLBW<1,500 g) constitute a group with the highest risk of sensorineural hearing loss. Our objective was to ascertain the degree of hearing loss, sensorineural hearing loss and presence of the association to other risk factors for hearing loss in VLBW infants included in the Universal Hearing Loss Screening Programme at the University Mother-Child Hospital of Gran Canaria (Spain) in the 2007-2010 period. This was a retrospective study of 364 infants with VLBW, measured by transient evoked otoacoustic emissions and auditory brainstem response. There were 112 newborn (30.8%) referred for auditory brainstem response. A diagnosis of hearing loss was given to 22 newborns (2.2%), 14 had conductive hearing loss and 8, sensorineural hearing loss (SNHL), of which 2 had bilateral profound hearing loss. The VLBW newborn presented the association to another risk factor in more than a quarter of the sample studied. All those diagnosed with SNHL were premature. The percentage of VLBW newborns diagnosed with hearing loss is higher than expected in the general population. All those diagnosed with SNHL were premature and presented one or 2 hearing risk factors associated with VLBW. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

Reduced Risk-Taking After Prior Losses in Pathological Gamblers Under Treatment and Healthy Control Group but not in Problem Gamblers.

Science.gov (United States)

Bonini, Nicolao; Grecucci, Alessandro; Nicolè, Manuel; Savadori, Lucia

2018-06-01

A group of pathological gamblers and a group of problem gamblers (i.e., gamblers at risk of becoming pathological) were compared to healthy controls on their risk-taking propensity after prior losses. Each participant played both the Balloon Analogue Risk Taking task (BART) and a modified version of the same task, where individuals face five repeated predetermined early losses at the onset of the game. No significant difference in risk-taking was found between groups on the standard BART task, while significant differences emerged when comparing behaviors in the two tasks: both pathological gamblers and controls reduced their risk-taking tendency after prior losses in the modified BART compared to the standard BART, whereas problem gamblers showed no reduction in risk-taking after prior losses. We interpret these results as a sign of a reduced sensitivity to negative feedback in problem gamblers which might contribute to explain their loss-chasing tendency.

Prevalence and independent risk factors for hearing loss in NICU infants

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hille, E.T.; Straaten, H.L.M. van; Verkerk, P.H.; Straaten, I. van; Verkerk, P.; Hille, E.; Baerts, W.; Bunkers, C.; Smink, E.; Elburg, R. van; Kleine, M. de; Kok, J.H.; Ilsen, A.; Visser, D.; Steiner, K.; Vries, L.S. de; Weisglas-Kuperus, N.; Sprij, A.; Lopriori, E.; Brokx, J.; Gavilanes, D.; Geven, W.; Bos, A.

2007-01-01

Aim: To determine the prevalence and independent relationship between hearing loss and risk factors in a representative neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) population. Methods: Automated auditory brainstem response (AABR) hearing screening has been introduced since 1998 in the Dutch NICUs. After a

Epidemiologic Analyses of Risk Factors for Bone Loss and Recovery Related to Long-Duration Space Flight

Science.gov (United States)

Sibonga, Jean; Amin, Shreyasee

2010-01-01

AIM 1: To investigate the risk of microgravity exposure on long-term changes in bone health and fracture risk. compare data from crew members ("observed") with what would be "expected" from Rochester Bone Health Study. AIM 2: To provide a summary of current evidence available on potential risk factors for bone loss, recovery & fracture following long-duration space flight. integrative review of all data pre, in-, and post-flight across disciplines (cardiovascular, nutrition, muscle, etc.) and their relation to bone loss and recovery

Depression and risk of fracture and bone loss: an updated meta-analysis of prospective studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Q; Liu, B; Tonmoy, S

2018-03-12

This meta-analysis pooled results from 23 qualifying individual cohort studies and found that depression was significantly associated with an increased risk of fractures and bone loss. The association between depression and risk of fracture remains controversial. We conducted a comprehensive meta-analysis to examine the effect of depression on the risk of osteoporotic fractures and bone loss. We searched databases and reviewed citations in relevant articles for eligible cohort studies. Two investigators independently conducted study selection, appraisal, and data abstraction through the use of a standardized protocol. Random effect models were used for meta-analysis. Cochrane Q and I 2 statistics were used to assess heterogeneity. Funnel plots and rank correlation tests were used to evaluate publication bias. Twenty-three studies were included for meta-analysis. In studies that reported hazard ratio (HR) as the outcome (nine studies [n = 309,862]), depression was associated with 26% increase in fracture risk (HR = 1.26, 95% CI, 1.10-1.43, p meta-analysis having modified inclusion criteria and in different subgroup analyses as well. Significant heterogeneity was observed in the meta-analysis; however, no significant publication bias was detected. Depression is associated with a significant increased risk in fracture and bone loss. Effective prevention may decrease such risk.

RISK OF PROFIT LOSS SHARING FINANCING: THE CASE OF INDONESIA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ernawati Ernawati

2016-02-01

Full Text Available This study analyzes the risk of profit-and-loss sharing finance in Indonesian Islamic banking. Data used is secondary data obtained from the Financial Services Authority’s 2009-2014 publication. Financing risk is measured by risk return and opportunity cost. Results of the study show that risk return in mudharaba financing is more volatile than that in musharaka as it is potentially driven by agency problems. In all groups of banks, higher incomes are more promising in mudharaba than musharaka; but individually musharaka is more attractive to Islamic Rural Bank groups, and vice versa for the Sharia Bank groups. The one side it is more secure for Islamic banking to allocate funds in musharaka contract, which is an alternative to murabaha. However, musharaka contract is less attractive due to lower potential returns. Although high returns are more promising in mudaraba, this financing mode has higher risk of returns.DOI: 10.15408/aiq.v8i1.1793

Global forest loss disproportionately erodes biodiversity in intact landscapes.

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Betts, Matthew G; Wolf, Christopher; Ripple, William J; Phalan, Ben; Millers, Kimberley A; Duarte, Adam; Butchart, Stuart H M; Levi, Taal

2017-07-27

Global biodiversity loss is a critical environmental crisis, yet the lack of spatial data on biodiversity threats has hindered conservation strategies. Theory predicts that abrupt biodiversity declines are most likely to occur when habitat availability is reduced to very low levels in the landscape (10-30%). Alternatively, recent evidence indicates that biodiversity is best conserved by minimizing human intrusion into intact and relatively unfragmented landscapes. Here we use recently available forest loss data to test deforestation effects on International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List categories of extinction risk for 19,432 vertebrate species worldwide. As expected, deforestation substantially increased the odds of a species being listed as threatened, undergoing recent upgrading to a higher threat category and exhibiting declining populations. More importantly, we show that these risks were disproportionately high in relatively intact landscapes; even minimal deforestation has had severe consequences for vertebrate biodiversity. We found little support for the alternative hypothesis that forest loss is most detrimental in already fragmented landscapes. Spatial analysis revealed high-risk hot spots in Borneo, the central Amazon and the Congo Basin. In these regions, our model predicts that 121-219 species will become threatened under current rates of forest loss over the next 30 years. Given that only 17.9% of these high-risk areas are formally protected and only 8.9% have strict protection, new large-scale conservation efforts to protect intact forests are necessary to slow deforestation rates and to avert a new wave of global extinctions.

Validation of a probabilistic model for hurricane insurance loss projections in Florida

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pinelli, J.-P.; Gurley, K.R.; Subramanian, C.S.; Hamid, S.S.; Pita, G.L.

2008-01-01

The Florida Public Hurricane Loss Model is one of the first public models accessible for scrutiny to the scientific community, incorporating state of the art techniques in hurricane and vulnerability modeling. The model was developed for Florida, and is applicable to other hurricane-prone regions where construction practice is similar. The 2004 hurricane season produced substantial losses in Florida, and provided the means to validate and calibrate this model against actual claim data. This paper presents the predicted losses for several insurance portfolios corresponding to hurricanes Andrew, Charley, and Frances. The predictions are validated against the actual claim data. Physical damage predictions for external building components are also compared to observed damage. The analyses show that the predictive capabilities of the model were substantially improved after the calibration against the 2004 data. The methodology also shows that the predictive capabilities of the model could be enhanced if insurance companies report more detailed information about the structures they insure and the types of damage they suffer. This model can be a powerful tool for the study of risk reduction strategies

Earthquake Loss Assessment for the Evaluation of the Sovereign Risk and Financial Sustainability of Countries and Cities

Science.gov (United States)

Cardona, O. D.

2013-05-01

Recently earthquakes have struck cities both from developing as well as developed countries, revealing significant knowledge gaps and the need to improve the quality of input data and of the assumptions of the risk models. The quake and tsunami in Japan (2011) and the disasters due to earthquakes in Haiti (2010), Chile (2010), New Zealand (2011) and Spain (2011), only to mention some unexpected impacts in different regions, have left several concerns regarding hazard assessment as well as regarding the associated uncertainties to the estimation of the future losses. Understanding probable losses and reconstruction costs due to earthquakes creates powerful incentives for countries to develop planning options and tools to cope with sovereign risk, including allocating the sustained budgetary resources necessary to reduce those potential damages and safeguard development. Therefore the use of robust risk models is a need to assess the future economic impacts, the country's fiscal responsibilities and the contingent liabilities for governments and to formulate, justify and implement risk reduction measures and optimal financial strategies of risk retention and transfer. Special attention should be paid to the understanding of risk metrics such as the Loss Exceedance Curve (empiric and analytical) and the Expected Annual Loss in the context of conjoint and cascading hazards.

Identification of Hip BMD Loss and Fracture Risk Markers Through Population-Based Serum Proteomics: HIP BMD LOSS & FRACTURE RISK MARKERS BY POPULATION-BASED SERUM PROTEOMICS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nielson, Carrie; Wiedrick, Jack; Shen, Jian; Jacobs, Jon M.; Baker, Erin M.; Baraff, Aaron; Piehowski, Paul D.; Lee, Christine; Baratt, Arie; Petyuk, Vladislav A.; Mcweeney, Shannon K.; Lim, Jeong Youn; Bauer, Douglas C.; Lane, Nancy E.; Cawthon, Peggy M.; Smith, Richard D.; Lapidus, Jodi; Orwoll, Eric S.

2017-04-06

Accelerated bone loss significantly increases the risk of osteoporosis and fracture. The mechanisms underlying bone loss remain incompletely understood, and there are few available biomarkers. We utilized a novel proteomics approach to identify serum peptides and proteins associated with bone loss in 1967 older men who were randomly chosen from the Osteoporotic Fracture in Men Study (MrOS study) (age ≥ 65 yrs). Men had 2-3 measures of femoral neck BMD over an average follow-up of 4.6 years. Change in BMD was estimated and then categorized into three groups: maintained BMD (n=453), expected loss (n=1185) and accelerated loss (n=237). A liquid chromatography–ion mobility separation-mass spectrometry (LC-IMS-MS) proteomics platform was used to identify and quantify peptides from serum proteins. The whole cohort was randomly divided into discovery (N= 960) and validation (N= 915) sub-cohorts. Linear regression models and a random forest approach were used to discover differentially abundant individual peptides and a proteomic signature that distinguished individuals with accelerated bone loss from those who maintained BMD. Network analyses were performed using the MetaCore knowledgebase. We identified 12 peptides that were associated with BMD loss in both discovery (P< 0.1 FDR) and replication sub-cohorts (P<0.05). Those 12 peptides mapped to the following proteins: ALS, LYVE1, RNAS1, C2, ICOSL, C163A, C7, HEMO, CD14, CERU, CRAC1 and CD59. Meta-analysis of peptidesassociated with bone loss identified 6 additional proteins including GRP78, IGF-2, SHBG, ENPP2, IBP2 and IBP6. We also identified a proteomic signature that was predictive of BMD loss with a discriminative value similar to serum bone marker carboxy-terminal collagen crosslink peptide (CTX). Interestingly, combining the proteomic signature with CTX significantly improved the ability to discriminate men with accelerated loss. In summary, we have identified potential new biomarkers for bone loss that provide

Assessment of the risk factors for hearing loss in adult Nigerian ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Conclusion: It was concluded that the RFs for SNHL in adult Nigerians were multifactorial while some of the RFs may be amenable to primary prevention. Legislation and public health education could facilitate reduction of SNHL in our community. Keywords: Adults, elderly, hearing loss, Nigerians, risk factors. Nigerian ...

Prevalence of vision loss among hospital in-patients; a risk factor for falls?

Science.gov (United States)

Leat, Susan J; Zecevic, Aleksandra A; Keeling, Alexis; Hileeto, Denise; Labreche, Tammy; Brymer, Christopher

2018-01-01

Despite poor vision being a risk factor for falls, current hospital policies and practices often do not include a vision assessment at patient admission or in the hospital's incident reporting system when a fall occurs. Our purpose was to document the prevalence of vision loss in hospital general medicine units to increase awareness of poor vision as a potential risk factor for falls that occur within the hospital, and inform future preventative practice. This cross-sectional study took place in medicine units of an acute care hospital. Participants were adult in-patients. Visual acuity (VA), contrast sensitivity and stereoacuity were measured, and patients were screened for field loss, extinction and neglect. 115 participants took part (average age 67 ± 17, 48% female). Overall, 89% had a visual impairment defined as being outside the age-norms for one or more vision measure, 62% had low vision, and 36% had vision loss equivalent to legal blindness [VA equal to or poorer than 1.0 logMAR (6/60, 20/200) or ≥10x below age-norms]. There was a considerable discrepancy between the prevalence of low vision and the percentage of patients who reported an ocular diagnosis that would result in visual loss (30%). Ten patients fell during the study period, and of these 100% had visual impairment, 90% had low vision and 60% had vision loss equivalent to legal blindness, which compares to 58%, 22% and 9% for non-fallers. Similar high prevalences were found in those whose reason for admission to the hospital was a fall (92%, 63% and 33% respectively). Vision loss has a high prevalence among patients in hospital medicine units, and is higher still among those who fall. Since vision loss may be a contributing factor to falls that occur in hospitals, implementing an assessment of vision at hospital admission would be useful to alert staff to those patients who are at risk for falls due to poor vision, so that preventative measures can be applied. © 2017 The Authors Ophthalmic

Predicting the economic costs and property value losses attributed to sudden oak death damage in California (2010-2020).

Science.gov (United States)

Kovacs, Kent; Václavík, Tomáš; Haight, Robert G; Pang, Arwin; Cunniffe, Nik J; Gilligan, Christopher A; Meentemeyer, Ross K

2011-04-01

Phytophthora ramorum, cause of sudden oak death, is a quarantined, non-native, invasive forest pathogen resulting in substantial mortality in coastal live oak (Quercus agrifolia) and several other related tree species on the Pacific Coast of the United States. We estimate the discounted cost of oak treatment, removal, and replacement on developed land in California communities using simulations of P. ramorum spread and infection risk over the next decade (2010-2020). An estimated 734 thousand oak trees occur on developed land in communities in the analysis area. The simulations predict an expanding sudden oak death (SOD) infestation that will likely encompass most of northwestern California and warrant treatment, removal, and replacement of more than 10 thousand oak trees with discounted cost of $7.5 million. In addition, we estimate the discounted property losses to single family homes of $135 million. Expanding the land base to include developed land outside as well as inside communities doubles the estimates of the number of oak trees killed and the associated costs and losses. The predicted costs and property value losses are substantial, but many of the damages in urban areas (e.g. potential losses from increased fire and safety risks of the dead trees and the loss of ecosystem service values) are not included. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

P2P Network Lending, Loss Given Default and Credit Risks

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Guangyou Zhou

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Peer-to-peer (P2P network lending is a new mode of internet finance that still holds credit risk as its main risk. According to the internal rating method of the New Basel Accord, in addition to the probability of default, loss given default is also one of the important indicators of evaluation credit risks. Proceeding from the perspective of loss given default (LGD, this paper conducts an empirical study on the probability distribution of LGDs of P2P as well as its influencing factors with the transaction data of Lending Club. The results show that: (1 the LGDs of P2P loans presents an obvious unimodal distribution, the peak value is relatively high and tends to concentrate with the decrease of the borrower’s credit rating, indicating that the distribution of LGDs of P2P lending is similar to that of unsecured bonds; (2 The total asset of the borrower has no significant impact on LGD, the credit rating and the debt-to-income ratio exert a significant negative impact, while the term and amount of the loan produce a relatively strong positive impact. Therefore, when evaluating the borrower’s repayment ability, it is required to pay more attention to its assets structure rather than the size of its total assets. When carrying out risk control for the P2P platform, it is necessary to give priority to the control of default rate.

Interventions to prevent occupational noise-induced hearing loss: A Cochrane systematic review

Science.gov (United States)

Verbeek, Jos H.; Kateman, Erik; Morata, Thais C.; Dreschler, Wouter A.; Mischke, Christina

2015-01-01

Objective To assess the effectiveness of interventions for preventing occupational noise exposure or hearing loss compared to no intervention or alternative interventions. Design We searched biomedical databases up to 25 January 2012 for randomized controlled trials (RCT), controlled before-after studies and interrupted time-series of hearing loss prevention among workers exposed to noise. Study sample We included 19 studies with 82 794 participants evaluating effects of hearing loss prevention programs (HLPP). The overall quality of studies was low to very low, as rated using the GRADE approach. Results One study of stricter legislation showed a favorable effect on noise levels. Three studies, of which two RCTs, did not find an effect of a HLPP. Four studies showed that better use of hearing protection devices in HLPPs decreased the risk of hearing loss. In four other studies, workers in a HLPP still had a 0.5 dB greater hearing loss at 4 kHz (95% CI – 0.5 to 1.7) than non-exposed workers. In two similar studies there was a substantial risk of hearing loss in spite of a HLPP. Conclusions Stricter enforcement of legislation and better implementation of HLPPs can reduce noise levels in workplaces. Better evaluations of technical interventions and long-term effects are needed. PMID:24564697

Interventions to prevent occupational noise-induced hearing loss: a Cochrane systematic review.

Science.gov (United States)

Verbeek, Jos H; Kateman, Erik; Morata, Thais C; Dreschler, Wouter A; Mischke, Christina

2014-03-01

To assess the effectiveness of interventions for preventing occupational noise exposure or hearing loss compared to no intervention or alternative interventions. We searched biomedical databases up to 25 January 2012 for randomized controlled trials (RCT), controlled before-after studies and interrupted time-series of hearing loss prevention among workers exposed to noise. We included 19 studies with 82 794 participants evaluating effects of hearing loss prevention programs (HLPP). The overall quality of studies was low to very low, as rated using the GRADE approach. One study of stricter legislation showed a favorable effect on noise levels. Three studies, of which two RCTs, did not find an effect of a HLPP. Four studies showed that better use of hearing protection devices in HLPPs decreased the risk of hearing loss. In four other studies, workers in a HLPP still had a 0.5 dB greater hearing loss at 4 kHz (95% CI - 0.5 to 1.7) than non-exposed workers. In two similar studies there was a substantial risk of hearing loss in spite of a HLPP. Stricter enforcement of legislation and better implementation of HLPPs can reduce noise levels in workplaces. Better evaluations of technical interventions and long-term effects are needed.

Filaggrin loss-of-function mutations, atopic dermatitis and risk of actinic keratosis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Y M F; Egeberg, A; Balslev, E

2017-01-01

BACKGROUND: Common loss-of-function mutations in filaggrin gene (FLG) represent a strong genetic risk factor for atopic dermatitis (AD). Homozygous mutation carriers typically display ichthyosis vulgaris (IV) and many have concomitant AD. Previously, homozygous, but not heterozygous, filaggrin ge...

Community Weight Loss to Combat Obesity and Disability in At-Risk Older Adults.

Science.gov (United States)

Rejeski, W Jack; Ambrosius, Walter T; Burdette, Jonathan H; Walkup, Michael P; Marsh, Anthony P

2017-10-12

Among older, overweight, and obese adults with either cardiovascular disease or the metabolic syndrome, reduced mobility and loss of leg strength are important risk factors for morbidity, disability, and mortality. It is unclear whether community-based approaches to weight loss may be an effective solution to this public health challenge. An 18-month three-site, randomized controlled trial conducted by YMCA staff, with blinded assessors, enrolled 249 older, overweight, and obese adults with either cardiovascular disease or metabolic syndrome with randomization to three interventions: weight loss alone (WL), weight loss + aerobic training (WL + AT), and weight loss + resistance training (WT + RT). The dual primary outcomes were 400-m walk time in seconds and knee extensor strength in Newton meters. All groups lost weight from baseline: average baseline adjusted change of -6.1% (95% confidence interval [CI]: -7.5 to -4.7) for WL only, -8.6% (95% CI: -10.0 to -7.2) for WL + AT, and -9.7% (95% CI: -11.1 to -8.4) for WL + RT. Combined, the two physical activity + WL training groups had greater improvement in walk time than WL alone (mean difference 16.9 seconds [95% CI: 9.7 to 24.0], p < .0001). Baseline adjusted change in knee extensor strength was no greater with WL + RT than WL + AT (mean difference -3.6 Nm [95% CI: -7.5 to 0.3], p = .07). At risk, older, overweight and obese adults can achieve clinically significant reductions in body weight with community-based weight loss programs. The change in percent weight loss and improvements in mobility are significantly enhanced when either RT or AT is combined with dietary WL. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Consumption of omega-3 fatty acids and fish and risk of age-related hearing loss.

Science.gov (United States)

Gopinath, Bamini; Flood, Victoria M; Rochtchina, Elena; McMahon, Catherine M; Mitchell, Paul

2010-08-01

Identification of modifiable risk factors that could prevent or slow the development of age-related hearing loss (presbycusis) would be valuable. Dietary polyunsaturated fatty acid (PUFA) intake may be related to age-related hearing loss. We aimed to determine the association between dietary intakes of omega-3 (n-3) PUFAs and fish and the risk of presbycusis. The Blue Mountains Hearing Study is a population-based survey of age-related hearing loss (1997-1999 to 2002-2004). We collected dietary data by using a semiquantitative food-frequency questionnaire and calculated PUFA and fish intakes. In 2956 participants (aged > or =50 y), we measured presbycusis, which we defined as the pure-tone average of frequencies 0.5, 1.0, 2.0, and 4.0 kHz >25 decibels of hearing loss. There was an inverse association between total n-3 PUFA intake and prevalent hearing loss [odds ratio (OR) per SD increase in energy-adjusted n-3 PUFAs: 0.89; 95% CI: 0.81, 0.99]. There was an inverse association between long-chain n-3 PUFAs and incident hearing loss (OR per SD increase in long-chain n-3 PUFAs: 0.76; 95% CI: 0.60, 0.97). Participants who had > or =2 servings of fish/wk compared with participants who had consumption of > or =1 to consumption of fish and hearing loss. Dietary intervention with n-3 PUFAs could prevent or delay the development of age-related hearing loss.

Risk assessment of influence factors on occupational hearing loss in noise – exposed workers in typical metal industry

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Farhadian Maryam

2014-11-01

Full Text Available Background & Objectives : Worker exposure conditions such as noise level, exposure duration, use of hearing protection devices and health behaviors are commonly related to noise induced hearing loss. The objective of this study was risk assessment of influence factors on occupational hearing loss in noise exposed workers in typical noisy process . Methods : Information about occupational exposure of seventy workers employed in a noisy press workshop was gathered using the standard questionnaire. Audiometery test was performed using the screening audiometer (Model-Mevox. Afterward, the collected data was analyzed by using the Cox model in SPSS software. Results : Based on results of the developed model, the job type and using status of HPD were most important features to induce hearing loss among workers. The risk of hearing loss among workers with the intermittent use of hearing protection was 3.1 times more than workers used their devices continuously. Relative risk of hearing loss among smoker workers compared with non-smoker was 1.1. Conclusion : The developed model could determine the effects of workers’ exposure conditions on risk of occupational hearing loss. This systematic approach can be considered as a helpful tool for determination the effectiveness of hearing conservation program and provide useful information for the managers and professionals in order to revise the existing health programs.

Risk-seeking for losses is associated with 5-HTTLPR, but not with transient changes in 5-HT levels.

Science.gov (United States)

Neukam, Philipp T; Kroemer, Nils B; Deza Araujo, Yacila I; Hellrung, Lydia; Pooseh, Shakoor; Rietschel, Marcella; Witt, Stephanie H; Schwarzenbolz, Uwe; Henle, Thomas; Smolka, Michael N

2018-05-05

Serotonin (5-HT) plays a key role in different aspects of value-based decision-making. A recent framework proposed that tonic 5-HT (together with dopamine, DA) codes future average reward expectations, providing a baseline against which possible choice outcomes are compared to guide decision-making. To test whether high 5-HT levels decrease loss aversion, risk-seeking for gains, and risk-seeking for losses. In a first session, 611 participants were genotyped for 5-HTTLPR and performed a mixed gambles (MGA) task and two probability discounting tasks for gains and losses, respectively (PDG/PDL). Afterwards, a subsample of 105 participants (44 with S/S, 6 with S/L, 55 with L/L genotype) completed the pharmacological study using a crossover design with tryptophan depletion (ATD), loading (ATL), and balanced (BAL) conditions. The same decision constructs were assessed. We found increased risk-seeking for losses in S/S compared to L/L individuals at the first visit (p = 0.002). Neither tryptophan depletion nor loading affected decision-making, nor did we observe an interaction between intervention and 5-HTTLPR genotype. Our data do not support the idea that transient changes of tonic 5-HT affect value-based decision-making. We provide evidence for an association of 5-HTTLPR with risk-seeking for losses, independent of acute 5-HT levels. This indicates that the association of 5-HTTLPR and risk-seeking for losses is mediated via other mechanisms, possibly by differences in the structural development of neural circuits of the 5-HT system during early life phases.

An Observational Study of Honey Bee Colony Winter Losses and Their Association with Varroa destructor, Neonicotinoids and Other Risk Factors

Science.gov (United States)

van der Zee, Romée; Gray, Alison; Pisa, Lennard; de Rijk, Theo

2015-01-01

This article presents results of an analysis of honey bee losses over the winter of 2011-2012 in the Netherlands, from a sample of 86 colonies, located at 43 apiaries. The apiaries were selected using spatially stratified random sampling. Colony winter loss data were collected and related to various measures of colony strength recorded in summer, as well as data from laboratory analysis of sample material taken from two selected colonies in each of the 43 apiaries. The logistic regression model which best explained the risk of winter loss included, in order of statistical importance, the variables (1) Varroa destructor mite infestation rate in October 2011, (2) presence of the cyano-substituted neonicotinoids acetamiprid or thiacloprid in the first 2 weeks of August 2011 in at least one of the honey bee matrices honey, bees or bee bread (pollen), (3) presence of Brassica napus (oilseed rape) or Sinapis arvensis (wild mustard) pollen in bee bread in early August 2011, and (4) a measure of the unexplained winter losses for the postal code area where the colonies were located, obtained from a different dataset. We consider in the discussion that reduced opportunities for foraging in July and August because of bad weather may have added substantially to the adverse effects of acetamiprid and thiacloprid. A novel feature of this work is its use of postal code random effects from two other independent datasets collected in the annual national monitoring by questionnaires of winter losses of honey bees in the Netherlands. These were used to plan the sample selection and also in the model fitting of the data in this study. It should however be noted that the results of the present pilot study are based on limited data, which may consequently reveal strong factors but fail to demonstrate possible interaction effects. PMID:26154346

An Observational Study of Honey Bee Colony Winter Losses and Their Association with Varroa destructor, Neonicotinoids and Other Risk Factors.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Romée van der Zee

Full Text Available This article presents results of an analysis of honey bee losses over the winter of 2011-2012 in the Netherlands, from a sample of 86 colonies, located at 43 apiaries. The apiaries were selected using spatially stratified random sampling. Colony winter loss data were collected and related to various measures of colony strength recorded in summer, as well as data from laboratory analysis of sample material taken from two selected colonies in each of the 43 apiaries. The logistic regression model which best explained the risk of winter loss included, in order of statistical importance, the variables (1 Varroa destructor mite infestation rate in October 2011, (2 presence of the cyano-substituted neonicotinoids acetamiprid or thiacloprid in the first 2 weeks of August 2011 in at least one of the honey bee matrices honey, bees or bee bread (pollen, (3 presence of Brassica napus (oilseed rape or Sinapis arvensis (wild mustard pollen in bee bread in early August 2011, and (4 a measure of the unexplained winter losses for the postal code area where the colonies were located, obtained from a different dataset. We consider in the discussion that reduced opportunities for foraging in July and August because of bad weather may have added substantially to the adverse effects of acetamiprid and thiacloprid. A novel feature of this work is its use of postal code random effects from two other independent datasets collected in the annual national monitoring by questionnaires of winter losses of honey bees in the Netherlands. These were used to plan the sample selection and also in the model fitting of the data in this study. It should however be noted that the results of the present pilot study are based on limited data, which may consequently reveal strong factors but fail to demonstrate possible interaction effects.

An Observational Study of Honey Bee Colony Winter Losses and Their Association with Varroa destructor, Neonicotinoids and Other Risk Factors.

Science.gov (United States)

van der Zee, Romée; Gray, Alison; Pisa, Lennard; de Rijk, Theo

2015-01-01

This article presents results of an analysis of honey bee losses over the winter of 2011-2012 in the Netherlands, from a sample of 86 colonies, located at 43 apiaries. The apiaries were selected using spatially stratified random sampling. Colony winter loss data were collected and related to various measures of colony strength recorded in summer, as well as data from laboratory analysis of sample material taken from two selected colonies in each of the 43 apiaries. The logistic regression model which best explained the risk of winter loss included, in order of statistical importance, the variables (1) Varroa destructor mite infestation rate in October 2011, (2) presence of the cyano-substituted neonicotinoids acetamiprid or thiacloprid in the first 2 weeks of August 2011 in at least one of the honey bee matrices honey, bees or bee bread (pollen), (3) presence of Brassica napus (oilseed rape) or Sinapis arvensis (wild mustard) pollen in bee bread in early August 2011, and (4) a measure of the unexplained winter losses for the postal code area where the colonies were located, obtained from a different dataset. We consider in the discussion that reduced opportunities for foraging in July and August because of bad weather may have added substantially to the adverse effects of acetamiprid and thiacloprid. A novel feature of this work is its use of postal code random effects from two other independent datasets collected in the annual national monitoring by questionnaires of winter losses of honey bees in the Netherlands. These were used to plan the sample selection and also in the model fitting of the data in this study. It should however be noted that the results of the present pilot study are based on limited data, which may consequently reveal strong factors but fail to demonstrate possible interaction effects.

12 CFR 370.8 - Systemic risk emergency special assessment to recover loss.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... recover loss. 370.8 Section 370.8 Banks and Banking FEDERAL DEPOSIT INSURANCE CORPORATION REGULATIONS AND STATEMENTS OF GENERAL POLICY TEMPORARY LIQUIDITY GUARANTEE PROGRAM § 370.8 Systemic risk emergency special... temporary liquidity guarantee program, the Corporation shall impose an emergency special assessment on...

Loss of the First Permanent Molar: Risk Factors and Adolescent Oral Health

OpenAIRE

Daraí Bárbara Sánchez Montero; Yahima Pons López; Ana Ibis Betancourt García; Anilec Santateresa Marchante

2017-01-01

Foundation: the replacement of the primary dentition begins with the eruption of the first permanent molars that will be subjected to various risk factors.Objective: to determine the existing relation between the first permanent molar loss and the risk factors in adolescents from 12 to 14 years old. Method: a cross descriptive study was developed between October 20011 and March 2012. On a universe of 560 students, a simple random sampling was done and a sample of 185 patients was selected. On...

Selected non-somatic risk factors for pregnancy loss in patients with abnormal early pregnancy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maciej Paszkowski

2015-12-01

The results of this study confirm the complexity of the early pregnancy loss etiopatogenesis. Further research need to be conducted in order to identify the non-somatic causative agents of various clinical forms of miscarriage. It may help do select women in reproductive age at high risk of early pregnancy loss and show the ways in which effective preventive measures can be introduced in such population.

Parvovirus B19 Infection in the First Trimester of Pregnancy and Risk of Fetal Loss

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lassen, Jonathan; Jensen, Anne K V; Bager, Peter

2012-01-01

in 3 regions in Denmark from 1992 to 1994. Cases of women with fetal loss were identified in the National Patient Register (n = 2,918), and control women with live-born children were identified in the Medical Birth Register (n = 8,429) by matching on age and sampling week. First-trimester serum samples......Because parvovirus B19 infection during pregnancy has been associated with increased risk of fetal loss in small or selected study populations, the authors evaluated the risk in a population-based study. A nested case-control study was conducted by using a population-based screening for syphilis...

Characteristics of children with unilateral hearing loss.

Science.gov (United States)

Fitzpatrick, Elizabeth M; Al-Essa, Rakan S; Whittingham, JoAnne; Fitzpatrick, Jessica

2017-11-01

The purpose of this study was to describe the clinical characteristics of children with unilateral hearing loss (UHL), examine deterioration in hearing, and explore amplification decisions. Population-based data were collected prospectively from time of diagnosis. Serial audiograms and amplification details were retrospectively extracted from clinical charts to document the trajectory and management of hearing loss. The study included all children identified with UHL in one region of Canada over a 13-year period (2003-2015) after implementation of universal newborn hearing screening. Of 537 children with permanent hearing loss, 20.1% (108) presented with UHL at diagnosis. They were identified at a median age of 13.9 months (IQR: 2.8, 49.0). Children with congenital loss were identified at 2.8 months (IQR: 2.0, 3.6) and made up 47.2% (n = 51), reflecting that a substantial portion had late-onset, acquired or late-identified loss. A total of 42.4% (n = 39) showed deterioration in hearing, including 16 (17.4%) who developed bilateral loss. By study end, 73.1% (79/108) of children had received amplification recommendations. Up to 20% of children with permanent HL are first diagnosed with UHL. About 40% are at risk for deterioration in hearing either in the impaired ear and/or in the normal hearing ear.

The risk of pedestrian collisions with peripheral visual field loss

OpenAIRE

Peli, Eli; Apfelbaum, Henry; Berson, Eliot L.; Goldstein, Robert B.

2016-01-01

Patients with peripheral field loss complain of colliding with other pedestrians in open-space environments such as shopping malls. Field expansion devices (e.g., prisms) can create artificial peripheral islands of vision. We investigated the visual angle at which these islands can be most effective for avoiding pedestrian collisions, by modeling the collision risk density as a function of bearing angle of pedestrians relative to the patient. Pedestrians at all possible locations were assumed...

Loss reduction in axial-flow compressors through low-speed model testing

Science.gov (United States)

Wisler, D. C.

1984-01-01

A systematic procedure for reducing losses in axial-flow compressors is presented. In this procedure, a large, low-speed, aerodynamic model of a high-speed core compressor is designed and fabricated based on aerodynamic similarity principles. This model is then tested at low speed where high-loss regions associated with three-dimensional endwall boundary layers flow separation, leakage, and secondary flows can be located, detailed measurements made, and loss mechanisms determined with much greater accuracy and much lower cost and risk than is possible in small, high-speed compressors. Design modifications are made by using custom-tailored airfoils and vector diagrams, airfoil endbends, and modified wall geometries in the high-loss regions. The design improvements resulting in reduced loss or increased stall margin are then scaled to high speed. This paper describes the procedure and presents experimental results to show that in some cases endwall loss has been reduced by as much as 10 percent, flow separation has been reduced or eliminated, and stall margin has been substantially improved by using these techniques.

Health risks, past usage, and intention to use weight loss products in normal weight women with high and low body dysphoria.

Science.gov (United States)

Whisenhunt, B L; Williamson, D A; Netemeyer, R G; Andrews, C

2003-06-01

There are many health risks involved with the use of weight loss products by normal weight women. The mass media may compound this problem through the promotion of weight loss products and a thin body size. This study tested women's perceptions of different weight loss product ads to determine if body dysphoria (i.e., an over concern with body size and shape in normal weight people) was associated with risk beliefs, past behaviors, and intention toward using weight loss products. Normal weight women (age range = 18-41 yr), who were classified as either high (n=45) or low (n=43) on a measure of body dysphoria, rated different weight loss products according to their perception of health risks, past behavior, and their intention to consume the products. These products were a dietary fat substitute (olestra), a prescription obesity medication (sibutramine), and an over-the-counter appetite suppressant (phenylpropanolamine). High body dysphoric women reported higher intentions to use the products as well as increased prior use of two of the three weight loss products. High body dysphoric women did not believe that these weight loss products were harmless. They recognized potential health risks associated with using such products, but nonetheless, expressed intention to use these weight loss products at a higher frequency. Also, several variables related to body image were found to effectively discriminate normal weight women at risk for abusing weight loss products. This study found that women who do not need to lose weight but have significant body image concerns were willing to use potentially harmful weight loss products despite the knowledge that such products might pose significant health risks. Techniques utilized by advertising regulatory agencies such as warning labels did not have a strong deterrent effect for stated intentions to use the products. Implications of these findings for public health policy issues were discussed.

Effect of calf death loss on cloned cattle herd derived from somatic cell nuclear transfer: clones with congenital defects would be removed by the death loss.

Science.gov (United States)

Watanabe, Shinya

2013-09-01

To increase public understanding on cloned cattle derived from somatic cell nuclear transfer (SCNT), the present review describes the effect of calf death loss on an SCNT cattle herd. The incidence of death loss in SCNT cattle surviving more than 200 days reached the same level as that in conventionally bred cattle. This process could be considered as removal of SCNT cattle with congenital defects caused by calf death loss. As a result of comparative studies of SCNT cattle and conventionally bred cattle, the substantial equivalences in animal health status, milk and meat productive performance have been confirmed. Both sexes of SCNT cattle surviving to adulthood were fertile and their reproductive performance, including efficiency of progeny production, was the same as that in conventionally bred cattle. The presence of substantial equivalence between their progeny and conventionally bred cattle also existed. Despite these scientific findings, the commercial use of food products derived from SCNT cattle and their progeny has not been allowed by governments for reasons including the lack of public acceptance of these products and the low efficiency of animal SCNT. To overcome this situation, communication of the low risk of SCNT technology and research to improve SCNT efficiency are required. © 2013 Japanese Society of Animal Science.

Knowledge and Cultural Beliefs of Mothers Regarding the Risk Factors of Infant Hearing Loss and Awareness of Audiology Services.

Science.gov (United States)

Govender, Samantha M; Khan, Nasim Banu

2017-06-23

The aim of the paper is to describe the knowledge of mothers in Durban, South Africa, regarding risk factors of hearing loss in infants and their awareness of audiology services, and to describe their cultural beliefs about the risk factors for hearing loss in infants. A descriptive survey design with quantitative methods of analysis were used. Conveniently sampled mothers (n=102) receiving postnatal care for their infants from eight provincial clinics within Durban consented to participate, yielding a response rate of 48%. A questionnaire was used to collect the data and the Cronbach α was calculated yielding a score of 0.835, indicating good internal consistency and reliability of the questionnaire. Sixty percent of the mothers were aware of risk factors, such as middle ear infections, ototoxic medication and consumption of alcohol during pregnancy. Seventy percent were unaware that NICU/mechanical ventilation for more than 5 days, prematurity, rubella and jaundice are considered risk factors for hearing loss, implying a need to create awareness amongst mothers regarding such risk factors. Sixty percent (n=62) believed that bewitchment and ancestral curses can cause hearing loss. Cultural beliefs were associated with hearing loss, therefore, health professionals need to demonstrate cultural competence when providing audiology services, especially in a culturally and linguistically diverse countries such as South Africa. Although the mothers had an average knowledge about risk factors, two thirds did not know which professional to seek help from. There is a need to create awareness amongst mothers regarding the risk factors of infant hearing loss as well as audiology services in order to facilitate early detection and intervention. There is a need for health professionals to demonstrate cultural competence when working with their patients.

Knowledge and Cultural Beliefs of Mothers Regarding the Risk Factors of Infant Hearing Loss and Awareness of Audiology Services

Science.gov (United States)

Govender, Samantha M.; Khan, Nasim Banu

2017-01-01

The aim of the paper is to describe the knowledge of mothers in Durban, South Africa, regarding risk factors of hearing loss in infants and their awareness of audiology services, and to describe their cultural beliefs about the risk factors for hearing loss in infants. A descriptive survey design with quantitative methods of analysis were used. Conveniently sampled mothers (n=102) receiving postnatal care for their infants from eight provincial clinics within Durban consented to participate, yielding a response rate of 48%. A questionnaire was used to collect the data and the Cronbach α was calculated yielding a score of 0.835, indicating good internal consistency and reliability of the questionnaire. Sixty percent of the mothers were aware of risk factors, such as middle ear infections, ototoxic medication and consumption of alcohol during pregnancy. Seventy percent were unaware that NICU/mechanical ventilation for more than 5 days, prematurity, rubella and jaundice are considered risk factors for hearing loss, implying a need to create awareness amongst mothers regarding such risk factors. Sixty percent (n=62) believed that bewitchment and ancestral curses can cause hearing loss. Cultural beliefs were associated with hearing loss, therefore, health professionals need to demonstrate cultural competence when providing audiology services, especially in a culturally and linguistically diverse countries such as South Africa. Although the mothers had an average knowledge about risk factors, two thirds did not know which professional to seek help from. There is a need to create awareness amongst mothers regarding the risk factors of infant hearing loss as well as audiology services in order to facilitate early detection and intervention. There is a need for health professionals to demonstrate cultural competence when working with their patients. PMID:28890772

38 CFR 4.112 - Weight loss.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

.... The term “inability to gain weight” means that there has been substantial weight loss with inability... 38 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Weight loss. 4.112... DISABILITIES Disability Ratings The Digestive System § 4.112 Weight loss. For purposes of evaluating conditions...

Job losses and accumulated number of broken partnerships increase risk of premature mortality in Danish men born in 1953

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kriegbaum, Margit; Christensen, Ulla; Lund, Rikke

2009-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To investigate how accumulation of job losses and broken partnerships affect the risk of premature mortality, and to study joint exposure to both events. METHODS: Birth cohort study of 9789 Danish men born in 1953 with follow-up of events between the ages of 40 and 51. RESULTS: The adj......OBJECTIVE: To investigate how accumulation of job losses and broken partnerships affect the risk of premature mortality, and to study joint exposure to both events. METHODS: Birth cohort study of 9789 Danish men born in 1953 with follow-up of events between the ages of 40 and 51. RESULTS......: The adjusted hazard rates for premature mortality was 1.44 (95% CI = 1.15 to 1.80) for individuals with one job loss, 1.55 (1.13 to 2.13) for individuals with one broken partnership, and 2.15 (95% CI = 1.49 to 3.10) for individuals with two or more broken partnerships. CONCLUSIONS: Experience of at least one...... job loss increased the risk of premature mortality. The risk of premature mortality increased with the number of broken partnerships. There was no statistical interaction between job losses and broken partnerships....

Noise and hand-arm vibration exposure in relation to the risk of hearing loss

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hans Pettersson

2012-01-01

Full Text Available The aim of this study was to examine the possible association of combined exposure of noise and hand-arm vibration (HAV and the risk of noise-induced hearing loss. Workers in a heavy engineering industry were part of a dynamic cohort. Of these workers, 189 had HAV exposure, and their age and hearing status were recorded in the same year and were, therefore, included in the analysis. Data on HAV duration and acceleration was gathered through questionnaires, observations, and measurements. All available audiograms were categorized into normal and hearing loss. The first exposure variable included the lifetime HAV exposure. The lifetime HAV exposure was multiplied by the acceleration of HAV for the second and third exposure variable. Logistic regression using the Generalized Estimation Equations method was chosen to analyze the data to account for the repeated measurements. The analysis was performed with both continuous exposure variables and with exposure variables grouped into exposure quartiles with hearing loss as an outcome and age as a covariate. With continuous exposure variables, the odds ratio (OR with a 95% confidence interval (CI for hearing loss was equal to or greater than one for all exposure variables. When the exposure variables were grouped into quartiles, the OR with a 95% CI was greater than one at the third and fourth quartile. The results show that working with vibrating machines in an environment with noise exposure increases the risk of hearing loss, supporting an association between exposure to noise and HAV, and the noise-induced hearing loss.

Loss of consciousness and convulsion induced by a ventricular tachycardia mimicking epilepsy in a patient with noncompaction cardiomyopathy : a case report

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Dello, S. A. W. G.; Kievit, C.; Dunselman, P. H.; Alings, M.

Convulsions and loss of consciousness can be caused by, among other things, arrhythmias, conduction disorders or epilepsy. In clinical practice it can be difficult to distinguish between these causes of syncope, even for well-trained specialists. Patients with cardiac syncope have a substantial risk

Noise-induced hearing loss in small-scale metal industry in Nepal.

Science.gov (United States)

Whittaker, J D; Robinson, T; Acharya, A; Singh, D; Smith, M

2014-10-01

There has been no previous research to demonstrate the risk of noise-induced hearing loss in industry in Nepal. Limited research on occupational noise-induced hearing loss has been conducted within small-scale industry worldwide, despite it being a substantial and growing cause of deafness in the developing world. The study involved a cross-sectional audiometric assessment, with questionnaire-based examinations of noise and occupational history, and workplace noise level assessment. A total of 115 metal workers and 123 hotel workers (control subjects) were recruited. Noise-induced hearing loss prevalence was 30.4 per cent in metal workers and 4.1 per cent in hotel workers, with a significant odds ratio of 10.3. Except for age and time in occupation, none of the demographic factors were significant in predicting outcomes in regression analyses. When adjusted for this finding, and previous noise-exposed occupations, the odds ratio was 13.8. Workplace noise was significantly different between the groups, ranging from 65.3 to 84.7 dBA in metal worker sites, and from 51.4 to 68.6 dBA in the control sites. Metal workers appear to have a greater risk of noise-induced hearing loss than controls. Additional research on occupational noise-induced hearing loss in Nepal and small-scale industry globally is needed.

The effects of exercise and weight loss in overweight patients with hip osteoarthritis : design of a prospective cohort study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Paans, Nienke; van den Akker-Scheek, Inge; van der Meer, Klaas; Bulstra, Sjoerd K.; Stevens, Martin

2009-01-01

Background: Hip osteoarthritis (OA) is recognised as a substantial source of disability, with pain and loss of function as principal symptoms. An aging society and a growing number of overweight people, which is considered a risk factor for OA, contribute to the growing number of cases of hip OA. In

Risk factors associated with honey bee colony loss in apiaries in Galicia, NW Spain

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aranzazu Meana

2017-04-01

Full Text Available A cross-sectional study was carried out in Galicia, NW Spain, in order to estimate the magnitude of honey bee colony losses and to identify potential risk factors involved. A total of 99 samples from 99 apiaries were collected in spring using simple random sampling. According to international guidelines, the apiaries were classified as affected by colony loss or asymptomatic. Each sample consisted of worker bees, brood and comb-stored pollen. All worker bees and brood samples were analysed individually in order to detect the main honey bee pathogens. Moreover, the presence of residues of the most prevalent agrotoxic insecticides and acaricides was assessed in comb-stored pollen. The general characteristics of the apiaries and sanitary information regarding previous years was evaluated through questionnaires, while the vegetation surrounding the apiaries sampled was assessed by palynological analysis of comb-stored pollen. The colony loss prevalence was 53.5% (CI95%=43.2-63.9 and Nosema ceranae was found to be the only risk factor strongly associated with colony loss. The decision tree also pointed out the impact of the Varroa mite presence while variables such as apiary size, the incorrect application of Varroa mite treatments, and the presence of Acarapis woodi and Kashmir bee virus (KBV were identified as possible co-factors.

Using participatory risk mapping (PRM to identify and understand people's perceptions of crop loss to animals in Uganda.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Amanda D Webber

Full Text Available Considering how people perceive risks to their livelihoods from local wildlife is central to (i understanding the impact of crop damage by animals on local people and (ii recognising how this influences their interactions with, and attitudes towards, wildlife. Participatory risk mapping (PRM is a simple, analytical tool that can be used to identify and classify risk within communities. Here we use it to explore local people's perceptions of crop damage by wildlife and the animal species involved. Interviews (n = 93, n = 76 and seven focus groups were conducted in four villages around Budongo Forest Reserve, Uganda during 2004 and 2005. Farms (N = 129 were simultaneously monitored for crop loss. Farmers identified damage by wildlife as the most significant risk to their crops; risk maps highlighted its anomalous status compared to other anticipated challenges to agricultural production. PRM was further used to explore farmers' perceptions of animal species causing crop damage and the results of this analysis compared with measured crop losses. Baboons (Papio anubis were considered the most problematic species locally but measurements of loss indicate this perceived severity was disproportionately high. In contrast goats (Capra hircus were considered only a moderate risk, yet risk of damage by this species was significant. Surprisingly, for wild pigs (Potamochoerus sp, perceptions of severity were not as high as damage incurred might have predicted, although perceived incidence was greater than recorded frequency of damage events. PRM can assist researchers and practitioners to identify and explore perceptions of the risk of crop damage by wildlife. As this study highlights, simply quantifying crop loss does not determine issues that are important to local people nor the complex relationships between perceived risk factors. Furthermore, as PRM is easily transferable it may contribute to the identification and development of

Reinforcement learning models of risky choice and the promotion of risk-taking by losses disguised as wins in rats.

Science.gov (United States)

Marshall, Andrew T; Kirkpatrick, Kimberly

2017-07-01

Risky decisions are inherently characterized by the potential to receive gains or incur losses, and these outcomes have distinct effects on subsequent decision-making. One important factor is that individuals engage in loss-chasing, in which the reception of a loss is followed by relatively increased risk-taking. Unfortunately, the mechanisms of loss-chasing are poorly understood, despite the potential importance for understanding pathological choice behavior. The goal of the present experiment was to illuminate the mechanisms governing individual differences in loss-chasing and risky-choice behaviors. Rats chose between a low-uncertainty outcome that always delivered a variable amount of reward and a high-uncertainty outcome that probabilistically delivered reward. Loss-processing and loss-chasing were assessed in the context of losses disguised as wins (LDWs), which are loss outcomes that are presented along with gain-related stimuli. LDWs have been suggested to interfere with adaptive decision-making in humans and thus potentially increase loss-making. Here, the rats presented with LDWs were riskier, in that they made more choices for the high-uncertainty outcome. A series of nonlinear models were fit to individual rats' data to elucidate the possible psychological mechanisms that best account for individual differences in high-uncertainty choices and loss-chasing behaviors. The models suggested that the rats presented with LDWs were more prone to showing a stay bias following high-uncertainty outcomes compared to rats not presented with LDWs. These results collectively suggest that LDWs acquire conditioned reinforcement properties that encourage continued risk-taking and increase loss-chasing following previous high-risk decisions. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Effect of sibutramine on weight maintenance after weight loss

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

James, W P; Astrup, A; Finer, Nicholas

2000-01-01

Sibutramine is a tertiary amine that has been shown to induce dose-dependent weight loss and to enhance the effects of a low-calorie diet for up to a year. We did a randomised, double-blind trial to assess the usefulness of sibutramine in maintaining substantial weight loss over 2 years.......Sibutramine is a tertiary amine that has been shown to induce dose-dependent weight loss and to enhance the effects of a low-calorie diet for up to a year. We did a randomised, double-blind trial to assess the usefulness of sibutramine in maintaining substantial weight loss over 2 years....

On the descriptive value of loss aversion in decisions under risk: Six clarifications

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eyal Ert

2013-05-01

Full Text Available Previous studies of loss aversion in decisions under risk have led to mixed results. Losses appear to loom larger than gains in some settings, but not in others. The current paper clarifies these results by highlighting six experimental manipulations that tend to increase the likelihood of the behavior predicted by loss aversion. These manipulations include: (1 framing of the safe alternative as the status quo; (2 ensuring that the choice pattern predicted by loss aversion maximizes the probability of positive (rather than zero or negative outcomes; (3 the use of high nominal (numerical payoffs; (4 the use of high stakes; (5 the inclusion of highly attractive risky prospects that creates a contrast effect; and (6 the use of long experiments in which no feedback is provided and in which the computation of the expected values is difficult. In addition, the results suggest the possibility of learning in the absence of feedback: The tendency to select simple strategies, like ``maximize the worst outcome'' which implies ``loss aversion'', increases when this behavior is not costly. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed.

Hearing Loss is Associated With Risk of Alzheimer’s Disease: A Case-Control Study in Older People

OpenAIRE

Shih-Chang Hung; Kuan-Fu Liao; Chih-Hsin Muo; Shih-Wei Lai; Chia-Wei Chang; Hung-Chang Hung

2015-01-01

Background: It remains unknown whether hearing loss increases the risk of Alzheimer’s disease. This study aimed to examine the association between hearing loss and risk of Alzheimer’s disease in older people in Taiwan. Methods: Analyzing the database from Taiwan’s National Health Insurance Program, this case-control study enrolled 488 subjects ≥65 years old with newly diagnosed Alzheimer’s disease as a case group and 1952 subjects without Alzheimer’s disease as a control group from 1998–20...

Male Astronauts Have Greater Bone Loss and Risk of Hip Fracture Following Long Duration Spaceflights than Females

Science.gov (United States)

Ellman, Rachel; Sibonga, Jean; Bouxsein, Mary

2010-01-01

This slide presentation reviews bone loss in males and compares it to female bone loss during long duration spaceflight. The study indicates that males suffer greater bone loss than females and have a greater risk of hip fracture. Two possible reason for the greater male bone loss are that the pre-menopausal females have the estrogen protection and the greater strength of men max out the exercise equipment that provide a limited resistance to 135 kg.

Beliefs about weight and breast cancer: an interview study with high risk women following a 12 month weight loss intervention.

Science.gov (United States)

Wright, Claire E; Harvie, Michelle; Howell, Anthony; Evans, D Gareth; Hulbert-Williams, Nick; Donnelly, Louise S

2015-01-01

Breast cancer is the most common cancer in the UK. Lifestyle factors including excess weight contribute to risk of developing the disease. Whilst the exact links between weight and breast cancer are still emerging, it is imperative to explore how women understand these links and if these beliefs impact on successful behaviour change. Overweight/obese premenopausal women (aged 35-45) with a family history of breast cancer (lifetime risk 17-40%) were invited to a semi-structured interview following their participation in a 12 month weight loss intervention aimed at reducing their risk of breast cancer. Interviews were carried out with 9 women who successfully achieved ≥5% weight loss and 11 who were unsuccessful. Data were transcribed verbatim and analysed using thematic analysis. Three themes were developed from the analysis. The first theme how women construct and understand links between weight and breast cancer risk is composed of two subthemes, the construction of weight and breast cancer risk and making sense of weight and breast cancer risk. This theme explores women's understanding of what contributes to breast cancer risk and whether they believe that weight loss could reduce their breast cancer risk. The second theme motivation and adherence to weight loss interventions explains that breast cancer risk can be a motivating factor for adherence to a weight loss intervention. The final theme, acceptance of personal responsibility for health is composed of two subthemes responsibility for one's own health and responsibility for family health through making sensible lifestyle choices. Beliefs about weight and breast cancer risk were informed by social networks, media reports and personal experiences of significant others diagnosed with breast cancer. Our study has highlighted common doubts, anxieties and questions and the importance of providing a credible rationale for weight control and weight loss which addresses individual concerns. Counselling and health

Designing Skin Cancer Prevention Messages: Should We Emphasize Gains or Losses? Message Framing, Risk Type, and Prior Experience.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Moon J; Kang, Hannah

2018-05-01

To test whether message framing (ie, gain vs. loss) and risk type (ie, health vs appearance risk) in skin cancer prevention messages interact with one's prior experience. Two experiments with a 2 (message framing: gain vs loss) × 2 (risk type: health vs appearance risk) factorial design were conducted. The participants were given a URL to the experiment website via e-mail. On the first page of the website, the participants were told that they would be asked to evaluate a skin cancer print public service announcement (PSA): Online experiments. A total of 397 individuals participated (236 for experiment 1 and 161 for experiment 2). Apparatus: Four versions of the skin cancer print PSAs were developed. Four PSAs were identical except for the 2 manipulated components: message framing and risk type. Measures were adopted from Cho and Boster (message framing), Jones and Leary and Kiene et al. (risk type), De Vries, Mesters, van't Riet, Willems, and Reubsaet and Knight, Kirincich, Farmer, and Hood (prior experience), and Hammond, Fong, Zanna, Thrasher, and Borland and Hoffner and Ye (behavioral intent). General linear models were used to test hypotheses. Three-way interactions among message framing, risk type, and prior experience were found: When the intent of the message was to encourage sunscreen use, the effects of message framing and risk type were shown to be the exact opposite directions from when the intent was to discourage indoor/outdoor tanning. To discourage tanning among those with prior experience, messages emphasizing losses in terms of one's health will work better. For those with no prior experience, messages emphasizing potential appearance losses will work better for discouraging tanning while messages emphasizing gains like improving appearance will do a better job in encouraging sunscreen use.

The Impact of Family Engagement and Child Welfare Services on Maltreatment Re-reports and Substantiated Re-reports.

Science.gov (United States)

Fuller, Tamara; Zhang, Saijun

2017-08-01

Despite decades of debate about the most effective ways to intervene with families reported to child protective services (CPS), little evidence exists regarding the types of services or approach that reduce children's risk of additional maltreatment. The current study used data collected during a statewide experimental evaluation of CPS to examine the impact of numerous service variables, family engagement, and family characteristics on the risk of maltreatment re-reports and substantiated re-reports among families initially reported for neglect and risk of harm. The sample included 4,868 families with screened-in reports that were randomly assigned to receive either an investigation or an assessment. The results of the Cox regression analyses found that service duration, intensity, and breadth were unrelated to maltreatment re-report or substantiated re-reports, but caseworker ratings of the service-need match were associated with both. The provision of domestic violence services was related to decreased risk of maltreatment re-reports. Increased levels of family engagement were associated with lowered risk of both maltreatment re-reports and substantiated re-reports. Once the effects of services, engagement, and family characteristics were taken into account, CPS response pathway (investigation or assessment) had no relationship to maltreatment re-reports or substantiated re-reports.

The risk of pedestrian collisions with peripheral visual field loss.

Science.gov (United States)

Peli, Eli; Apfelbaum, Henry; Berson, Eliot L; Goldstein, Robert B

2016-12-01

Patients with peripheral field loss complain of colliding with other pedestrians in open-space environments such as shopping malls. Field expansion devices (e.g., prisms) can create artificial peripheral islands of vision. We investigated the visual angle at which these islands can be most effective for avoiding pedestrian collisions, by modeling the collision risk density as a function of bearing angle of pedestrians relative to the patient. Pedestrians at all possible locations were assumed to be moving in all directions with equal probability within a reasonable range of walking speeds. The risk density was found to be highly anisotropic. It peaked at ≈45° eccentricity. Increasing pedestrian speed range shifted the risk to higher eccentricities. The risk density is independent of time to collision. The model results were compared to the binocular residual peripheral island locations of 42 patients with forms of retinitis pigmentosa. The natural residual island prevalence also peaked nasally at about 45° but temporally at about 75°. This asymmetry resulted in a complementary coverage of the binocular field of view. Natural residual binocular island eccentricities seem well matched to the collision-risk density function, optimizing detection of other walking pedestrians (nasally) and of faster hazards (temporally). Field expansion prism devices will be most effective if they can create artificial peripheral islands at about 45° eccentricities. The collision risk and residual island findings raise interesting questions about normal visual development.

My loss is your loss ... Sometimes: loss aversion and the effect of motivational biases.

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, Robyn S; Arvai, Joseph L; Arkes, Hal R

2008-08-01

Findings from previous studies of individual decision-making behavior predict that losses will loom larger than gains. It is less clear, however, if this loss aversion applies to the way in which individuals attribute value to the gains and losses of others, or if it is robust across a broad spectrum of policy and management decision contexts. Consistent with previous work, the results from a series of experiments reported here revealed that subjects exhibited loss aversion when evaluating their own financial gains and losses. The presence of loss aversion was also confirmed for the way in which individuals attribute value to the financial gains and losses of others. However, similar evaluations within social and environmental contexts did not exhibit loss aversion. In addition, research subjects expected that individuals who were unknown to them would significantly undervalue the subjects' own losses across all contexts. The implications of these findings for risk-based policy and management are many. Specifically, they warrant caution when relying upon loss aversion to explain or predict the reaction of affected individuals to risk-based decisions that involve moral or protected values. The findings also suggest that motivational biases may lead decisionmakers to assume that their attitudes and beliefs are common among those affected by a decision, while those affected may expect unfamiliar others to be unable to identify and act in accordance with shared values.

Falls risk and hospitalization among retired workers with occupational noise-induced hearing loss.

Science.gov (United States)

Girard, Serge André; Leroux, Tony; Verreault, René; Courteau, Marilène; Picard, Michel; Turcotte, Fernand; Baril, Julie

2014-03-01

This study sought to ascertain whether occupational noise-induced hearing loss (NIHL) increased the risk of falls requiring hospitalization among retired workers. The study population consisted of males (age ≥ 65) with an average occupational noise exposure of 30.6 years and whose mean bilateral hearing loss was 42.2 dB HL at 3, 4, and 6 kHz. Seventy-two retired workers admitted to hospitals after a fall were matched with 216 controls from the same industrial sectors. Conditional logistic regression models were used to estimate the risk (odds ratio; [OR]) of falls leading to hospitalization by NIHL categories. Results showed a relationship between severe NIHL (≥ 52.5 dB HL) and the occurrence of a fall (OR: 1.97, CI95%: 1.001-3.876). Reducing falls among seniors fosters the maintenance of their autonomy. There is a definite need to acquire knowledge about harmful effects of occupational noise to support the prevention of NIHL and ensure healthier workplaces.

The dose-response relationship between in-ear occupational noise exposure and hearing loss.

Science.gov (United States)

Rabinowitz, Peter M; Galusha, Deron; Dixon-Ernst, Christine; Clougherty, Jane E; Neitzel, Richard L

2013-10-01

Current understanding of the dose-response relationship between occupational noise and hearing loss is based on cross-sectional studies prior to the widespread use of hearing protection, and with limited data regarding noise exposures below 85 dBA. We report on the hearing loss experience of a unique cohort of industrial workers, with daily monitoring of noise inside of hearing protection devices. At an industrial facility, workers exhibiting accelerated hearing loss were enrolled in a mandatory programme to monitor daily noise exposures inside of hearing protection. We compared these noise measurements (as time-weighted LAVG) to interval rates of high-frequency hearing loss over a 6-year period using a mixed-effects model, adjusting for potential confounders. Workers' high-frequency hearing levels at study inception averaged more than 40 dB Hearing threshold level (HTL). Most noise exposures were less than 85 dBA (mean LAVG 76 dBA, IQR 74-80 dBA). We found no statistical relationship between LAvg and high-frequency hearing loss (p=0.53). Using a metric for monthly maximum noise exposure did not improve model fit. At-ear noise exposures below 85 dBA did not show an association with risk of high-frequency hearing loss among workers with substantial past noise exposure and hearing loss at baseline. Therefore, effective noise control to below 85 dBA may lead to significant reduction in occupational hearing loss risk in such individuals. Further research is needed on the dose-response relationship of noise and hearing loss in individuals with normal hearing and little prior noise exposure.

Mathematical Modeling for Risk Averse Firm Facing Loss Averse Customer’s Stochastic Uncertainty

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Seungbeom Kim

2017-01-01

Full Text Available To optimize the firm’s profit during a finite planning horizon, a dynamic programming model is used to make joint pricing and inventory replenishment decision assuming that customers are loss averse and the firm is risk averse. We model the loss averse customer’s demand using the multinomial choice model. In this choice model, we consider the acquisition and transition utilities widely used by a mental accounting theory which also incorporate the reference price and actual price. Then, we show that there is an optimal inventory policy which is base-stock policy depending on the accumulated wealth in each period.

Loss-of-function mutation in ABCA1 and risk of Alzheimer's disease and cerebrovascular disease

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nordestgaard, Liv Tybjærg; Tybjærg-Hansen, Anne; Nordestgaard, Børge G

2015-01-01

.2%) versus AA (99.8%) was associated with a 13% lower plasma level of apoE (P = 1 × 10(-11)). Multifactorially adjusted hazard ratios for N1800H AC versus AA were 4.13 (95% confidence interval, 1.32-12.9) for AD, 2.46 (1.10-5.50) for cerebrovascular disease, and 8.28 (2.03-33.7) for the hemorrhagic stroke......-brain barrier via apoE-mediated pathways. METHODS: We tested whether a loss-of-function mutation in ABCA1, N1800H, is associated with plasma levels of apoE and with risk of Alzheimer's disease (AD) in 92,726 individuals and with risk of cerebrovascular disease in 64,181 individuals. RESULTS: N1800H AC (0...... subtype. DISCUSSION: A loss-of-function mutation in ABCA1, present in 1:500 individuals, was associated with low plasma levels of apoE and with high risk of AD and cerebrovascular disease in the general population....

Deciding for Others Reduces Loss Aversion

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersson, Ola; Holm, Håkan J.; Tyran, Jean-Robert Karl

We study risk taking on behalf of others, both with and without potential losses. A large-scale incentivized experiment is conducted with subjects randomly drawn from the Danish population. On average, decision makers take the same risks for other people as for themselves when losses are excluded....... In contrast, when losses are possible, decisions on behalf of others are more risky. Using structural estimation, we show that this increase in risk stems from a decrease in loss aversion when others are affected by their choices.......We study risk taking on behalf of others, both with and without potential losses. A large-scale incentivized experiment is conducted with subjects randomly drawn from the Danish population. On average, decision makers take the same risks for other people as for themselves when losses are excluded...

Hearing loss is associated with increased CHD risk and unfavorable CHD-related biomarkers in the Dongfeng-Tongji cohort.

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Fang, Qin; Wang, Zhichao; Zhan, Yue; Li, Dan; Zhang, Kun; Zhou, Tao; Yang, Handong; Zhang, Ce; Li, Xiulou; Min, Xinwen; Chen, Weihong; Guo, Huan; He, Mei-An; Kong, Weijia; Wu, Tangchun; Zhang, Xiaomin

2018-04-01

The association between hearing loss and coronary heart disease (CHD) is inconsistent. We aimed to investigate the association of hearing loss with prevalent CHD and CHD-related biomarkers among a middle aged and elderly Chinese population. We included 14,755 Chinese aged 64.6 years from the Dongfeng-Tongji Cohort in 2013. Hearing loss was classified into normal, mild, moderate or greater levels by the pure tone average (PTA) at low frequency and high frequency, respectively. Logistic regression models were used to estimate the odds ratios (ORs) of CHD risk in relation to hearing loss. Linear regression models were used to evaluate the effect of hearing loss on CHD-related biomarkers. The adjusted ORs for prevalent CHD increased gradually with the increasing hearing loss levels. Compared with normal hearing, individuals having mild- and moderate or greater-hearing loss had a higher CHD risk of 19% and 20% at low frequency, and 33% and 41% at high frequency, respectively (all p for trend occupational noise and with hyperglycemia, hypertension or dyslipidemia at low frequency, and those with hyperglycemia at high frequency. Meanwhile, moderate or greater hearing loss combined with overweight, hyperglycemia, hypertension or dyslipidemia had joint effects on CHD. In addition, the majority of CHD-related biomarkers worsened with increasing hearing loss levels. There may be a dose-response relationship between hearing loss and CHD prevalence, and the association could partially be explained by intermediate CHD-related biomarkers. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Hyperemesis, gestational hypertensive disorders, pregnancy losses and risk of autoimmune diseases in a Danish population-based cohort

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jørgensen, Kristian Tore; Nielsen, Nete Munk; Pedersen, Bo Vestergaard

2012-01-01

The risk of some female predominant autoimmune diseases (ADs) has previously been shown to be higher in women who experience hyperemesis, gestational hypertensive disorders and idiopathic pregnancy losses. This study assessed the association between such pregnancy-related experiences and the subs......The risk of some female predominant autoimmune diseases (ADs) has previously been shown to be higher in women who experience hyperemesis, gestational hypertensive disorders and idiopathic pregnancy losses. This study assessed the association between such pregnancy-related experiences...... and the subsequent risk of female predominant and other ADs. Our study cohort comprised 1.6 million Danish women born since 1955 for whom we had information about hyperemesis, gestational hypertensive disorders and pregnancy losses and subsequent hospital contacts for 31 ADs between 1982 and 2008. Ratios of first...... hospitalization rates (RRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using Poisson regression, adjusting for age, birth cohort, calendar period, marital status and childbirths. During 27.0 million person-years of follow-up 51,732 women were hospitalized with one or more ADs. Overall, compared...

Increased risk of all-cause mortality and renal graft loss in stable renal transplant recipients with hyperparathyroidism.

Science.gov (United States)

Pihlstrøm, Hege; Dahle, Dag Olav; Mjøen, Geir; Pilz, Stefan; März, Winfried; Abedini, Sadollah; Holme, Ingar; Fellström, Bengt; Jardine, Alan G; Holdaas, Hallvard

2015-02-01

Hyperparathyroidism is reported in 10% to 66% of renal transplant recipients (RTR). The influence of persisting hyperparathyroidism on long-term clinical outcomes in RTR has not been examined in a large prospective study. We investigated the association between baseline parathyroid hormone (PTH) levels and major cardiovascular events, renal graft loss, and all-cause mortality by Cox Proportional Hazard survival analyses in 1840 stable RTR derived from the Assessment of LEscol in Renal Transplantation trial. Patients were recruited in a mean of 5.1 years after transplantation, and follow-up time was 6 to 7 years. Significant associations between PTH and all 3 outcomes were found in univariate analyses. When adjusting for a range of plausible confounders, including measures of renal function and serum mineral levels, PTH remained significantly associated with all-cause mortality (4% increased risk per 10 units; P=0.004), and with graft loss (6% increased risk per 10 units; PHyperparathyroidism is an independent, potentially remediable, risk factor for renal graft loss and all-cause mortality in RTR.

Hypertension: New perspective on its definition and clinical management by bedtime therapy substantially reduces cardiovascular disease risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Hermida, Ramón C; Ayala, Diana E; Fernández, José R; Mojón, Artemio; Smolensky, Michael H

2018-05-01

Diagnosis of hypertension-elevated blood pressure (BP) associated with increased cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk-and its management for decades have been based primarily on single time-of-day office BP measurements (OBPM) assumed representative of systolic (SBP) and diastolic BP (DBP) during the entire 24-hours span. Around-the-clock ambulatory blood pressure monitoring (ABPM), however, reveals BP undergoes 24-hours patterning characterized in normotensives and uncomplicated hypertensives by striking morning-time rise, 2 daytime peaks-one ~2-3 hours after awakening and the other early evening, small midafternoon nadir and 10-20% decline (BP dipping) in the asleep BP mean relative to the wake-time BP mean. A growing number of outcome trials substantiate correlation between BP and target organ damage, vascular and other risks is greater for the ABPM-derived asleep BP mean, independent and stronger predictor of CVD risk, than daytime OBPM or ABPM-derived awake BP. Additionally, bedtime hypertension chronotherapy, that is, ingestion of ≥1 conventional hypertension medications at bedtime to achieve efficient attenuation of asleep BP, better reduces total CVD events by 61% and major events (CVD death, myocardial infarction, ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke) by 67%-even in more vulnerable chronic kidney disease, diabetes and resistant hypertension patients-than customary on-awaking therapy that targets wake-time BP. Such findings of around-the-clock ABPM and bedtime hypertension outcome trials, consistently indicating greater importance of asleep BP than daytime OBPM or ambulatory awake BP, call for a new definition of true arterial hypertension plus modern approaches for its diagnosis and management. © 2018 Stichting European Society for Clinical Investigation Journal Foundation.

Impact of childhood trauma and cognitive emotion regulation strategies on risk-aversive and loss-aversive patterns of decision-making in patients with depression.

Science.gov (United States)

Huh, Hyu Jung; Baek, Kwangyeol; Kwon, Jae-Hyung; Jeong, Jaeseung; Chae, Jeong-Ho

2016-11-01

Although poor decision-making ultimately impairs quality of life in depression, few studies describe the clinical characteristics of patients suffering from dysfunctional decision-making. This study aims to delineate the effect of childhood trauma and other personality factors on risk-aversive and loss-aversive patterns of decision-making in patients with depression. A total of 50 depressive patients completed surveys for the measurement of sociodemographic factors, trauma loads and other clinical characteristics, including depression, anxiety, and strategies for emotion regulation. Risk aversion and loss aversion were quantified using probability discounting task and a 50:50 gamble on monetary decision-making task under specified risks. Stepwise multiple regression analysis was performed to determine the factors, predicting risk aversion or loss aversion in depression. Childhood trauma was the most prominent factor predicting loss aversion in patients with depressive disorders. Overall maladaptive emotion regulation strategies were associated with risk aversion. Childhood trauma and specific strategies of emotion regulation contribute to risk or loss aversion in patients with depression. These findings may provide useful insight into elaborative evaluation and interventions to improve decision-making and quality of life in patients with depression.

Job Loss at Mid-Life: Managers and Executives Face the "New Risk Economy"

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Mendenhall, Ruby; Kalil, Ariel; Spindel, Laurel J.; Hart, Cassandra M. D.

2008-01-01

We use a life course framework to examine how the "new risk economy" has left middle-age professionals, managers and executives more vulnerable to job loss and unemployment despite high levels of human capital. Using in-depth qualitative data from 77 recently-unemployed white-collar workers, we examine perceptions of macro-economic…

Determining the effect of worker exposure conditions on the risk of hearing loss in noisy industrial workroom using Cox proportional hazard model.

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Aliabadi, Mohsen; Fereidan, Mohammad; Farhadian, Maryam; Tajik, Leila

2015-01-01

In noisy workrooms, exposure conditions such as noise level, exposure duration and use of hearing protection devices are contributory factors to hearing loss. The aim of this study was to determine the effect of exposure conditions on the risk of hearing loss using the Cox model. Seventy workers, employed in a press workshop, were selected to study their hearing threshold using an audiometric test. Their noise exposure histories also were analyzed. The results of the Cox model showed that the job type, smoking and the use of protection devices were effective to induce hearing loss. The relative risk of hearing loss in smokers was 1.1 times of non-smokers The relative risk of hearing loss in workers with the intermittent use of protection devices was 3.3 times those who used these devices continuously. The Cox model could analyze the effect of exposure conditions on hearing loss and provides useful information for managers in order to improve hearing conservation programs.

Intraoperative blood loss and blood transfusion requirements in patients undergoing orthognathic surgery.

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Faverani, Leonardo Perez; Ramalho-Ferreira, Gabriel; Fabris, André Luis Silva; Polo, Tárik Ocon Braga; Poli, Guilherme Henrique Souza; Pastori, Cláudio Maldonado; Marzola, Clóvis; Assunção, Wirley Gonçalves; Garcia-Júnior, Idelmo Rangel

2014-09-01

Procedures for the surgical correction of dentofacial deformities may produce important complications, whether due to the potential for vascular injury or to prolonged surgery, both of which may lead to severe blood loss. Fluid replacement with crystalloid, colloid, or even blood products may be required. The aim of this study was to assess blood loss and transfusion requirements in 45 patients (18 males and 27 females; mean age 29.29 years, range 16-52 years) undergoing orthognathic surgery, assigned to one of two groups according to procedure type-rapid maxillary expansion or double-jaw orthognathic surgery. Preoperative hemoglobin and hematocrit levels and intraoperative blood loss were measured. There was a substantial individual variation in pre- and postoperative hemoglobin values (10.3-17 and 8.8-15.4 g/dL, respectively; p surgery and follow meticulous protocols to minimize the risks.

Cyber security risk management: public policy implications of correlated risk, imperfect ability to prove loss, and observability of self-protection.

Science.gov (United States)

Oğüt, Hulisi; Raghunathan, Srinivasan; Menon, Nirup

2011-03-01

The correlated nature of security breach risks, the imperfect ability to prove loss from a breach to an insurer, and the inability of insurers and external agents to observe firms' self-protection efforts have posed significant challenges to cyber security risk management. Our analysis finds that a firm invests less than the social optimal levels in self-protection and in insurance when risks are correlated and the ability to prove loss is imperfect. We find that the appropriate social intervention policy to induce a firm to invest at socially optimal levels depends on whether insurers can verify a firm's self-protection levels. If self-protection of a firm is observable to an insurer so that it can design a contract that is contingent on the self-protection level, then self-protection and insurance behave as complements. In this case, a social planner can induce a firm to choose the socially optimal self-protection and insurance levels by offering a subsidy on self-protection. We also find that providing a subsidy on insurance does not provide a similar inducement to a firm. If self-protection of a firm is not observable to an insurer, then self-protection and insurance behave as substitutes. In this case, a social planner should tax the insurance premium to achieve socially optimal results. The results of our analysis hold regardless of whether the insurance market is perfectly competitive or not, implying that solely reforming the currently imperfect insurance market is insufficient to achieve the efficient outcome in cyber security risk management. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

Carbohydrate- vs fat-controlled diet effect on weight loss and coronary artery disease risk: a pilot feeding study.

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Mueller, Charles; Masri, Basem; Hogg, Jeannette; Mastrogiacomo, Maddalena; Chiu, Ya-Lin

2010-10-01

This pilot study compared weight loss and serum indicators of coronary artery disease (CAD) risk between 2 weight loss (energy-deficit) diets, one controlled for carbohydrate as a percentage of total calories and the other controlled for fat as percentage of total calories. Participants were randomized to 1 of 2 diets and fed on an outpatient basis for 70 days, after which they followed their diets using their own resources for an additional 70 days. Energy deficit for the diets was determined by indirect calorimetry with a 500- to 750-calorie per day adjustment. Weight and CAD risk indicators and serum lipid and C-reactive protein levels were measured at baseline, day 70, and day 140. The study was completed by 16 of 20 participants who were able to comply with the feeding portion of the study as well as with follow-up appointments during the second (self-management) period of the study. Participants lost weight in both diet groups (24.4 lbs, carbohydrate controlled; 18.5 lbs, fat controlled), and serum CAD risk factors decreased in both groups. There were no significant differences in CAD risk factors between diet groups, although there was a trend toward lighter low-density lipoprotein (LDL) size in the carbohydrate-controlled group. During the self-management portion of the study, weight loss stalled or regained from loss during the previous feeding period. The results, although underpowered, are consistent with recent studies in which macronutrient ratio of total calories in diet did not affect degree of weight loss and in which carbohydrate-controlled diets produced a predominance of lighter LDLs.

Risk seeking for losses modulates the functional connectivity of the default mode and left frontoparietal networks in young males.

Science.gov (United States)

Deza Araujo, Yacila I; Nebe, Stephan; Neukam, Philipp T; Pooseh, Shakoor; Sebold, Miriam; Garbusow, Maria; Heinz, Andreas; Smolka, Michael N

2018-06-01

Value-based decision making (VBDM) is a principle that states that humans and other species adapt their behavior according to the dynamic subjective values of the chosen or unchosen options. The neural bases of this process have been extensively investigated using task-based fMRI and lesion studies. However, the growing field of resting-state functional connectivity (RSFC) may shed light on the organization and function of brain connections across different decision-making domains. With this aim, we used independent component analysis to study the brain network dynamics in a large cohort of young males (N = 145) and the relationship of these dynamics with VBDM. Participants completed a battery of behavioral tests that evaluated delay aversion, risk seeking for losses, risk aversion for gains, and loss aversion, followed by an RSFC scan session. We identified a set of large-scale brain networks and conducted our analysis only on the default mode network (DMN) and networks comprising cognitive control, appetitive-driven, and reward-processing regions. Higher risk seeking for losses was associated with increased connectivity between medial temporal regions, frontal regions, and the DMN. Higher risk seeking for losses was also associated with increased coupling between the left frontoparietal network and occipital cortices. These associations illustrate the participation of brain regions involved in prospective thinking, affective decision making, and visual processing in participants who are greater risk-seekers, and they demonstrate the sensitivity of RSFC to detect brain connectivity differences associated with distinct VBDM parameters.

Risk Assessment of Nitrogen and Phosphorus Loss in a Hilly-Plain Watershed Based on the Different Hydrological Period: A Case Study in Tiaoxi Watershed

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hongmeng Ye

2017-08-01

Full Text Available Non-point source pollution is widely considered a serious threat to drinking water. Eutrophication in Chinese watershed is mainly due to nitrogen and phosphorus output from agricultural source. Taihu Lake is a typical eutrophic lake in China, a basin representative for the study of the temporal-spatial characteristics of pollution loading of nitrogen and phosphorus to provide scientific basis for reasonable estimation and targeted control measures of nitrogen and phosphorus loss. Based on data from nitrogen and phosphorus loss in agricultural land, livestock breeding, domestic discharge and aquaculture, this study calculated the levels of nitrogen and phosphorus comprehensive loss risk for each pollution source. Using the superposition of ArcGIS raster data, we also described the spatial distribution of nitrogen and phosphorus comprehensive loss risk by the formula of comprehensive loss risk. The results showed that critical risk areas of nitrogen and phosphorus loss mainly originated from livestock breeding and agricultural land during flood period in Tiaoxi watershed. Agricultural land and livestock breeding sources formed major parts of nitrogen loss, accounting for 30.85% and 36.18%, respectively, while phosphorus loss mainly originated from livestock breeding (56.28%. During non-flood period, integrated management of livestock breeding and domestic discharge requires much attention to control nitrogen and phosphorus loss in the critical risk area. Finally, it is of great practical significance to propose spatial-temporal targeted measurements to control nitrogen and phosphorus pollution in watershed for various periods and different areas.

The Dose Response Relationship between In Ear Occupational Noise Exposure and Hearing Loss

Science.gov (United States)

Rabinowitz, Peter M.; Galusha, Deron; Dixon-Ernst, Christine; Clougherty, Jane E.; Neitzel, Richard L.

2014-01-01

Objectives Current understanding of the dose-response relationship between occupational noise and hearing loss is based on cross-sectional studies prior to the widespread use hearing protection and with limited data regarding noise exposures below 85dBA. We report on the hearing loss experience of a unique cohort of industrial workers with daily monitoring of noise inside of hearing protection devices. Methods At an industrial facility, workers exhibiting accelerated hearing loss were enrolled in a mandatory program to monitor daily noise exposures inside of hearing protection. We compared these noise measurements (as time-weighted LAVG) to interval rates of high frequency hearing loss over a six year period using a mixed effects model, adjusting for potential confounders. Results Workers’ high frequency hearing levels at study inception averaged more than 40 dB hearing threshold level (HTL). Most noise exposures were less than 85dBA (mean LAVG 76 dBA, interquartile range 74 to 80 dBA). We found no statistical relationship between LAvg and high frequency hearing loss (p = 0.53). Using a metric for monthly maximum noise exposure did not improve model fit. Conclusion At-ear noise exposures below 85dBA did not show an association with risk of high frequency hearing loss among workers with substantial past noise exposure and hearing loss at baseline. Therefore, effective noise control to below 85dBA may lead to significant reduction in occupational hearing loss risk in such individuals. Further research is needed on the dose response relationship of noise and hearing loss in individuals with normal hearing and little prior noise exposure. PMID:23825197

Factors contributing to postpartum blood-loss in low-risk mothers through expectant management in Japanese birth centres.

Science.gov (United States)

Eto, Hiromi; Hasegawa, Ayako; Kataoka, Yaeko; Porter, Sarah E

2017-08-01

To describe aspects of expectant midwifery care for low-risk women conducted in midwifery-managed birth centres during the first two critical hours after delivery and to compare differences between midwifery care, client factors and postpartum blood loss volume. As a secondary analysis from a larger study, this descriptive retrospective study examined data from birth records of 4051 women who birthed from 2001 to 2006 at nine (21%) of the 43 midwifery centres in Tokyo. Nonparametric and parametric analyses identified factors related to increased blood loss. Interviews to establish sequence of midwifery care were conducted. The midwifery centres provided care based on expectant management principles from birth to after expulsion of the placenta. Approximately 63.3% of women were within the normal limits of blood loss volume under 500g. A minority of women (12.9%) experienced blood loss between 500 and 800g and 4% had blood loss exceeding 1000g. Blood loss volume tended to increase with infant birth weight and duration of delivery. The total blood loss volume was significantly higher for primiparas than for multiparas during the critical two hours after delivery and for immediately after delivery, yet blood loss volume was significantly higher for multiparas than for primiparas during the first hour after delivery. Preventive uterine massage and umbilical cord clamping after placenta expulsion resulted in statistically significant less blood loss. Identified were two patterns of midwifery care based on expectant management principles from birth to after expulsion of the placenta. The practice of expectant management was not a significant factor for increased postpartum blood loss. These results detail specific midwifery practices and highlight the clinical significance of expectant management with low risk pregnant women experiencing a normal delivery. Copyright © 2016 Australian College of Midwives. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Accounting for the risks of phosphorus losses through tile drains in a phosphorus index.

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Reid, D Keith; Ball, Bonnie; Zhang, T Q

2012-01-01

Tile drainage systems have been identified as a significant conduit for phosphorus (P) losses to surface water, but P indices do not currently account for this transport pathway in a meaningful way. Several P indices mention tile drains, but most account for either the reduction in surface runoff or the enhanced transport through tiles rather than both simultaneously. A summary of the current state of how tile drains are accounted for within P indices is provided, and the challenges in predicting the risk of P losses through tile drains that are relative to actual losses are discussed. A framework for a component P Index is described, along with a proposal to incorporate predictions of losses through tile drains as a component within this framework. Options for calibrating and testing this component are discussed. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

Estimating Loss to Follow-Up in HIV-Infected Patients on Antiretroviral Therapy: The Effect of the Competing Risk of Death in Zambia and Switzerland

Science.gov (United States)

Mwango, Albert; Stringer, Jeffrey; Ledergerber, Bruno; Mulenga, Lloyd; Bucher, Heiner C.; Westfall, Andrew O.; Calmy, Alexandra; Boulle, Andrew; Chintu, Namwinga; Egger, Matthias; Chi, Benjamin H.

2011-01-01

Background Loss to follow-up (LTFU) is common in antiretroviral therapy (ART) programmes. Mortality is a competing risk (CR) for LTFU; however, it is often overlooked in cohort analyses. We examined how the CR of death affected LTFU estimates in Zambia and Switzerland. Methods and Findings HIV-infected patients aged ≥18 years who started ART 2004–2008 in observational cohorts in Zambia and Switzerland were included. We compared standard Kaplan-Meier curves with CR cumulative incidence. We calculated hazard ratios for LTFU across CD4 cell count strata using cause-specific Cox models, or Fine and Gray subdistribution models, adjusting for age, gender, body mass index and clinical stage. 89,339 patients from Zambia and 1,860 patients from Switzerland were included. 12,237 patients (13.7%) in Zambia and 129 patients (6.9%) in Switzerland were LTFU and 8,498 (9.5%) and 29 patients (1.6%), respectively, died. In Zambia, the probability of LTFU was overestimated in Kaplan-Meier curves: estimates at 3.5 years were 29.3% for patients starting ART with CD4 cells Switzerland since only few patients died. The results from Cox and Fine and Gray models were similar: in Zambia the risk of loss to follow-up and death increased with decreasing CD4 counts at the start of ART, whereas in Switzerland there was a trend in the opposite direction, with patients with higher CD4 cell counts more likely to be lost to follow-up. Conclusions In ART programmes in low-income settings the competing risk of death can substantially bias standard analyses of LTFU. The CD4 cell count and other prognostic factors may be differentially associated with LTFU in low-income and high-income settings. PMID:22205933

RISK MANAGEMENT OF GERMAN FRUIT PRODUCERS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Annkatrin PORSCH

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Horticultural farms in Germany face substantial business risks. However, fruit farms often struggle to implement appropriate risk management processes, and the risk management literature widely has ignored this farm type. The aim of the study was to improve the assessment of risks by farmers and the choice of suitable risk management instruments. Therefore, a risk management process based on subjective probabilities and suitable for small and medium-sized farms was developed, considering the specific needs of family run businesses. An online survey was conducted to achieve a comprehensive view of the risk perception and risk management practices of German fruit producers. Price and production risks are the most relevant risk categories for fruit farmers. However, among single risk sources, those in the people risk category were seen as the most important. Results show significant interactions among risk categories and a significant correlation between loss experience and the rating of risk categories. The assumption that risk averse farmers generally rate risks higher than risk neutral or risk seeking farmers cannot be confirmed. Diversification seems to be the most important risk management instrument for many fruit producers, especially diversification of marketing channels, farm income, and production activities. Further research should focus on the apparent inconsistency between the satisfaction with instruments reported by farmers and the actual implementation of many of them (e.g., hail insurance and anti-hail net. Furthermore, there is a need for research, to develop decision models considering the interactions of risks and risk management instruments, loss experience and risk seeking attitudes.

Risk Balancing of Cold Ischemic Time against Night Shift Surgery Possibly Reduces Rates of Reoperation and Perioperative Graft Loss

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nikos Emmanouilidis

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Background. This retrospective cohort study evaluates the advantages of risk balancing between prolonged cold ischemic time (CIT and late night surgery. Methods. 1262 deceased donor kidney transplantations were analyzed. Multivariable regression was used to determine odds ratios (ORs for reoperation, graft loss, delayed graft function (DGF, and discharge on dialysis. CIT was categorized according to a forward stepwise pattern ≤1h/>1h, ≤2h/>2h, ≤3h/>3h,…, ≤nh/>nh. ORs for DGF were plotted against CIT and a nonlinear regression function with best R2 was identified. First and second derivative were then implemented into the curvature formula k(x=f′′(x/(1+f′x23/2 to determine the point of highest CIT-mediated risk acceleration. Results. Surgery between 3 AM and 6 AM is an independent risk factor for reoperation and graft loss, whereas prolonged CIT is only relevant for DGF. CIT-mediated risk for DGF follows an exponential pattern fx=A·(1+k·eI·x with a cut-off for the highest risk increment at 23.5 hours. Conclusions. The risk of surgery at 3 AM–6 AM outweighs prolonged CIT when confined within 23.5 hours as determined by a new mathematical approach to calculate turning points of nonlinear time related risks. CIT is only relevant for the endpoint of DGF but had no impact on discharge on dialysis, reoperation, or graft loss.

Donation frequency, iron loss, and risk of cancer among blood donors

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Edgren, Gustaf; Reilly, Marie; Hjalgrim, Henrik

2008-01-01

BACKGROUND: Long-term deleterious effects of repeated blood donations may be masked by the donors' healthy lifestyle. To investigate possible effects of blood donation and iron loss through blood donation on cancer incidence while minimizing "healthy donor effects," we made dose......-response comparisons within a cohort of Swedish and Danish blood donors. METHODS: We used a nested case-control study design, in which case patients were defined as all donors who were diagnosed with a malignancy between their first recorded blood donation and study termination (n = 10866). Control subjects (n...... plasma donors (> 25 vs 0 donations, OR = 2.14, 95% CI = 1.22 to 3.74). CONCLUSIONS: Repeated blood donation was not associated with increased or decreased risk of cancer overall. The lack of consistency across latency periods casts doubt on an apparent association between reduced cancer risk and iron...

Area-based assessment of extinction risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Hei, Fangliang

2012-05-01

Underpinning the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List is the assessment of extinction risk as determined by the size and degree of loss of populations. The IUCN system lists a species as Critically Endangered, Endangered, or Vulnerable if its population size declines 80%, 50%, or 30% within a given time frame. However, effective implementation of the system faces substantial challenges and uncertainty because geographic scale data on population size and long-term dynamics are scarce. I develop a model to quantify extinction risk using a measure based on a species' distribution, a much more readily obtained quantity. The model calculates the loss of the area of occupancy that is equivalent to the loss of a given proportion of a population. It is a very simple yet general model that has no free parameters and is independent of scale. The model predicted well the distributions of 302 tree species at a local scale and the distributions of 348 species of North American land birds. This area-based model provides a solution to the long-standing problem for IUCN assessments of lack of data on population sizes, and thus it will contribute to facilitating the quantification of extinction risk worldwide.

Periodontal disease, tooth loss and colorectal cancer risk: Results from the Nurses' Health Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Momen-Heravi, Fatemeh; Babic, Ana; Tworoger, Shelley S; Zhang, Libin; Wu, Kana; Smith-Warner, Stephanie A; Ogino, Shuji; Chan, Andrew T; Meyerhardt, Jeffrey; Giovannucci, Edward; Fuchs, Charles; Cho, Eunyoung; Michaud, Dominique S; Stampfer, Meir J; Yu, Yau-Hua; Kim, David; Zhang, Xuehong

2017-02-01

Periodontal diseases including tooth loss might increase systemic inflammation, lead to immune dysregulation and alter gut microbiota, thereby possibly influencing colorectal carcinogenesis. Few epidemiological studies have examined the association between periodontal diseases and colorectal cancer (CRC) risk. We collected information on the periodontal disease (defined as history of periodontal bone loss) and number of natural teeth in the Nurses' Health Study. A total of 77,443 women were followed since 1992. We used Cox proportional hazard models to calculate multivariable hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) after adjustment for smoking and other known risk factors for CRC. We documented 1,165 incident CRC through 2010. Compared to women with 25-32 teeth, the multivariable HR (95% CI) for CRC for women with periodontal disease, HRs for CRC were 0.91 (95% CI 0.74-1.12) for periodontal disease, and 1.22 (95% CI 0.91-1.63) when limited to moderate to severe periodontal disease. The results were not modified by smoking status, body mass index or alcohol consumption. Women with fewer teeth, possibly moderate or severe periodontal disease, might be at a modest increased risk of developing CRC, suggesting a potential role of oral health in colorectal carcinogenesis. © 2016 UICC.

Operating Experiences of a Loss of Voltage Monitoring Program

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, Eun-Chan [Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power Co. Ltd., Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2015-10-15

Loss of voltage (LOV) events continue to occur due to inadequate work management and random human errors. On February 26, 2015, regulators analyzed the root causes of LOV events and presented the results for the nuclear industry. Currently, KHNP uses a risk monitoring program, which is named 'LOV Monitor', for LOV prevention during pilot plant outages. This review introduces the operation experiences of LOV Monitor based on the evaluation results of a real event. The operation experiences of LOV Monitor in the pilot plants confirmed that this program could detect and reduce LOV possibilities from scheduling errors such as the simultaneous maintenance of energized trains and de-energized trains considering the physical conditions of the power circuit breakers. However, a maintenance culture that heeds the risk monitoring result must be strengthened in order to obtain substantial effects through applying LOV Monitor to the outage.

Loss Aversion in the Laboratory

OpenAIRE

Morrison, William G.; Oxoby, Robert J.

2014-01-01

We report the results of a laboratory experiment testing for the existence of loss aversion in a standard risk aversion protocol (Holt and Laury, 2002). In our experiment, participants earn and retain money for a week before using it in an incentivized risk preference elicitation task. We find loss aversion, distinct from risk aversion, has a significant effect on behavior resulting in participants requiring higher compensation to bear risk.

Understanding the nature of nuclear power plant risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Denning, R. S.

2012-01-01

This paper describes the evolution of understanding of severe accident consequences from the non-mechanistic assumptions of WASH-740 to WASH-1400, NUREG-1150, SOARCA and today in the interpretation of the consequences of the accident at Fukushima. As opposed to the general perception, the radiological human health consequences to members of the Japanese public from the Fukushima accident will be small despite meltdowns at three reactors and loss of containment integrity. In contrast, the radiation-related societal impacts present a substantial additional economic burden on top of the monumental task of economic recovery from the nonnuclear aspects of the earthquake and tsunami damage. The Fukushima accident provides additional evidence that we have mis-characterized the risk of nuclear power plant accidents to ourselves and to the public. The human health risks are extremely small even to people living next door to a nuclear power plant. The principal risk associated with a nuclear power plant accident involves societal impacts: relocation of people, loss of land use, loss of contaminated products, decontamination costs and the need for replacement power. Although two of the three probabilistic safety goals of the NRC address societal risk, the associated quantitative health objectives in reality only address individual human health risk. This paper describes the types of analysis that would address compliance with the societal goals. (authors)

Productivity losses attributable to untreated chlamydial infection and associated pelvic inflammatory disease in reproductive-aged women.

Science.gov (United States)

Blandford, John M; Gift, Thomas L

2006-10-01

The productivity losses attributable to disease-related morbidity and mortality impose a burden on society in general and on employers in particular. A reliable assessment of the productivity losses associated with untreated infection with Chlamydia trachomatis (Ct) would complement earlier work on direct medical costs and contribute to an estimate of the full cost of chlamydial disease. The goal of this study was to estimate the discounted lifetime productivity losses attributable to untreated chlamydial infection in reproductive-aged women. We developed a cost model using Monte Carlo methods to estimate the lifetime discounted productivity losses attributable to untreated lower genital tract Ct infection among reproductive-aged women. The model considered the impact of disability resulting from acute pelvic inflammatory disease (PID) associated with untreated Ct infection and from the sequelae of acute PID, including chronic pelvic pain, ectopic pregnancy, and infertility. To accommodate disparate Ct infection rates and labor market characteristics across age groups, we matched age-based risk factors for Ct infection with labor market patterns. Data sources included the 2001 National Chlamydia Surveillance Data, the 2001 Current Population Survey, and published literature. Estimates indicate that the mean weighted productivity losses per untreated Ct infection were approximately US dollars 130 (in year 2001 dollars). Mean weighted productivity losses per case of acute PID were estimated at US dollars 649. Estimated productivity losses were highly correlated with age, reflecting age-dependent differences in labor market characteristics. The productivity losses attributable to untreated infection with Ct and to sequelae of this infection form a substantial portion of the total economic burden of disease. Effective programs to prevent chlamydial infection and effective screening, diagnosis, and treatment of Ct-infected women may reduce productivity losses and

Prior rates of visual field loss and lifetime risk of blindness in glaucomatous patients undergoing trabeculectomy.

Science.gov (United States)

Foulsham, W S; Fu, L; Tatham, A J

2015-10-01

Trend-based analyses examining rates of visual field (VF) loss in glaucoma are useful for predicting risk of vision-related morbidity. Although patients with faster losses are likely to require treatment escalation, little is known about rates that might trigger a decision to intervene surgically. The aims of this study were to investigate prior rates of VF loss in patients attending for trabeculectomy and to estimate, in the absence of surgical intervention, lifetime risk of visual impairment, and blindness. A retrospective analysis of 117 eyes of 86 consecutive patients with glaucoma attending for trabeculectomy, including 53 patients referred from general ophthalmology clinics and 33 patients from specialist glaucoma clinics. Rates of change in standard automated perimetry mean deviation were examined using linear regression and random coefficient models. Risk of lifetime visual impairment and blindness was calculated using life expectancy data. Mean age at surgery was 71.0±9.7 years. Patients were followed for 10.7±7.5 years prior to surgery with an average of seven useable fields per eye. On average patients referred from general clinics lost 1.04 dB/year compared with 0.77 dB/year in those referred from glaucoma clinics (P=0.070). Patients referred from general clinics had more medication changes prior to surgery (3.4 and 2.6 changes, respectively; P=0.004). Given Scottish life expectancy data, untreated, 61 eyes (52%) would have passed the threshold for visual impairment, whereas 40 (34%) would have passed the threshold demarcating blindness. Patients attending for trabeculectomy had faster average rates of field loss prior to surgery than published values for the general glaucoma population with over one-third of eyes studied predicted to have become blind without intervention. Those managed by glaucoma specialists had fewer changes in medication and tended to slower rates of VF loss, although the latter did not reach statistical significance.

Improved Safety Margin Characterization of Risk from Loss of Offsite Power

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nelson, Paul [Texas A & M Univ., College Station, TX (United States)

2017-11-07

Original intent: The original intent of this task was “support of the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characteristic (RISMC) methodology in order” “to address … efficiency of computation so that more accurate and cost-effective techniques can be used to address safety margin characterizations” (S. M. Hess et al., “Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization,” Procs. ICONE17, Brussels, July 2009, CD format). It was intended that “in Task 1 itself this improvement will be directed toward upon the very important issue of Loss of Offsite Power (LOOP) events,” more specifically toward the challenge of efficient computation of the multidimensional nonrecovery integral that has been discussed by many previous contributors to the theory of nuclear safety. It was further envisioned that “three different computational approaches will be explored,” corresponding to the three subtasks listed below; deliverables were tied to the individual subtasks.

A Qualitative Study on Knowledge and Attitude towards Risk Factors, Early Identification and Intervention of Infant Hearing Loss among Puerperal Mothers- A Short Survey.

Science.gov (United States)

Dudda, Ravi; Muniyappa, Hanumanth Prasad; Puttaraju, Sahana; Lakshmi, M S

2017-07-01

Maternal active participation and their support are critical for the success of early hearing loss detection program. Erroneous maternal decisions may have large life long consequences on the infant's life. The mothers' knowledge and their attitudes towards infant hearing loss is the basis for their decisions. The present study was done to determine the mothers' knowledge and their attitude towards risk factors of infant hearing loss, its early identification and intervention and also awareness of effect of consanguinity on hearing loss. In this cross-sectional questionnaire survey study, a total of 100 mothers were interviewed using the questionnaire which consisted of three sections namely risk factors, early identification and early intervention of hearing loss. Chi-square test was used to establish relationship between consanguineous and non-consanguineous mother's responses to its effect on hearing loss. A p-value consanguinity and benefits of early identification. However, mothers were least aware of neonatal jaundice, NICU admission (>5 days), signs of late-onset and neural hearing loss, management of hearing loss, hearing aid fitting and therapy necessity, which might interfere in early detection and intervention of hearing loss. It is crucial to educate mothers on few risk factors and management of hearing loss to reduce its consequences.

Establishing Substantial Equivalence: Transcriptomics

Science.gov (United States)

Baudo, María Marcela; Powers, Stephen J.; Mitchell, Rowan A. C.; Shewry, Peter R.

Regulatory authorities in Western Europe require transgenic crops to be substantially equivalent to conventionally bred forms if they are to be approved for commercial production. One way to establish substantial equivalence is to compare the transcript profiles of developing grain and other tissues of transgenic and conventionally bred lines, in order to identify any unintended effects of the transformation process. We present detailed protocols for transcriptomic comparisons of developing wheat grain and leaf material, and illustrate their use by reference to our own studies of lines transformed to express additional gluten protein genes controlled by their own endosperm-specific promoters. The results show that the transgenes present in these lines (which included those encoding marker genes) did not have any significant unpredicted effects on the expression of endogenous genes and that the transgenic plants were therefore substantially equivalent to the corresponding parental lines.

Substantial Union or Substantial Distinction of Mind and Body in Descartes' Metaphysics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fahime Jamei

2009-01-01

Full Text Available According to Descartes’ metaphysics there are two different kinds of substances in the world of creatures: “thinking substance” and “extended substance” or soul and matter. In Descartes’ philosophy the soul is equal to the mind and considered as a “thinking substance”. This immaterial substance is the essence of the human being. Body, being considered as a “matter“, is an “extended substance” and entirely distinct from the soul. The soul, therefore, exists and may be known prior to body and, not being corporeal, can exist after human death. Hence, Descartes can prove the immortality of human soul in the framework of the principle of substantial distinction. On the other hand, as a physiologist and psychologist, Descartes indeed believes in mind-body union, so that some causal interactions between mind and body show their substantial union. In this essay, the authors show that Descartes faces a serious problem in combining substantial union of mind and body with their substantial distinction; despite of his efforts in introducing the idea of pineal gland, the problem remains unsolved. Therefore it seems that as he cannot dispense with his only reason for proving the immortality of human soul, he has to hold the mind-body distinction theory in his metaphysics. Indeed, Descartes prefers to support the distinction theory rather than union theory in confronting a thesis and an antithesis stating one of two theories

Substantial :union: or Substantial Distinction of Mind and Body in Descartes\\' Metaphysics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

f Jamei

2009-06-01

Full Text Available According to Descartes’ metaphysics there are two different kinds of substances in the world of creatures: “thinking substance” and “extended substance” or soul and matter. In Descartes’ philosophy the soul is equal to the mind and considered as a “thinking substance”. This immaterial substance is the essence of the human being. Body, being considered as a “matter“, is an “extended substance” and entirely distinct from the soul. The soul, therefore, exists and may be known prior to body and, not being corporeal, can exist after human death. Hence, Descartes can prove the immortality of human soul in the framework of the principle of substantial distinction. On the other hand, as a physiologist and psychologist, Descartes indeed believes in mind-body :union:, so that some causal interactions between mind and body show their substantial :union:. In this essay, the authors show that Descartes faces a serious problem in combining substantial :union: of mind and body with their substantial distinction despite of his efforts in introducing the idea of pineal gland, the problem remains unsolved. Therefore it seems that as he cannot dispense with his only reason for proving the immortality of human soul, he has to hold the mind-body distinction theory in his metaphysics. Indeed, Descartes prefers to support the distinction theory rather than :union: theory in confronting a thesis and an antithesis stating one of two theories.

Men and Women in Space: Bone Loss and Kidney Stone Risk after Long-Duration Space Flight

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Scott M.; Zwart, Sara R.; Heer, Martina; Hudson, Edgar, K.; Shackelford, Linda; Morgan, Jennifer L. L.

2014-01-01

Bone loss on Earth is more prevalent in women than men, leading to the assumption that women may be at greater risk from bone loss during flight. Until recently, the number of women having flown long-duration missions was too small to allow any type of statistical analysis. We report here data from 42 astronauts on long-duration missions to the International Space Station, 33 men and 9 women. Bone mineral density (dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry), bone biochemistry (from blood and urine samples), and renal stone risk factors were evaluated before and after flight. Data were analyzed in two groups, based on available resistance exercise equipment. The response of bone mineral density to flight was the same for men and women, and the typical decrease in bone mineral density (whole body and/or regional) after flight was not observed for either sex for those using an Advanced Resistive Exercise Device. Bone biochemistry, specifically markers of formation and resorption, generally responded similarly in male and female astronauts. The response of urinary supersaturation risk to space flight was not significantly different between men and women, although risks were typically increased after flight in both groups and risks were generally greater in men than in women before and after flight. Overall, the bone and renal stone responses of men and women to space flight were not different.

Risk-based damage potential and loss estimation of extreme flooding scenarios in the Austrian Federal Province of Tyrol

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Huttenlau

2010-12-01

Full Text Available Within the last decades serious flooding events occurred in many parts of Europe and especially in 2005 the Austrian Federal Province of Tyrol was serious affected. These events in general and particularly the 2005 event have sensitised decision makers and the public. Beside discussions pertaining to protection goals and lessons learnt, the issue concerning potential consequences of extreme and severe flooding events has been raised. Additionally to the general interest of the public, decision makers of the insurance industry, public authorities, and responsible politicians are especially confronted with the question of possible consequences of extreme events. Answers thereof are necessary for the implementation of preventive appropriate risk management strategies. Thereby, property and liability losses reflect a large proportion of the direct tangible losses. These are of great interest for the insurance sector and can be understood as main indicators to interpret the severity of potential events. The natural scientific-technical risk analysis concept provides a predefined and structured framework to analyse the quantities of affected elements at risk, their corresponding damage potentials, and the potential losses. Generally, this risk concept framework follows the process steps hazard analysis, exposition analysis, and consequence analysis. Additionally to the conventional hazard analysis, the potential amount of endangered elements and their corresponding damage potentials were analysed and, thereupon, concrete losses were estimated. These took the specific vulnerability of the various individual elements at risk into consideration. The present flood risk analysis estimates firstly the general exposures of the risk indicators in the study area and secondly analyses the specific exposures and consequences of five extreme event scenarios. In order to precisely identify, localize, and characterize the relevant risk indicators of buildings

Estimating adolescent risk for hearing loss based on data from a large school-based survey

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vogel, L.; Verschuure, H.; Ploeg, C.P.B. van der; Brug, J.; Raat, H.

2010-01-01

Objectives. We estimated whether and to what extent a group of adolescents were at risk of developing permanent hearing loss as a result of voluntary exposure to high-volume music, and we assessed whether such exposure was associated with hearing-related symptoms. Methods. In 2007, 1512 adolescents

Estimating adolescent risk for hearing loss based on data from a large school-based survey

NARCIS (Netherlands)

I. Vogel (Ineke); H. Verschuure (Hans); C.P.B. van der Ploeg (Catharina); J. Brug (Hans); H. Raat (Hein)

2010-01-01

textabstractObjectives. We estimated whether and to what extent a group of adolescents were at risk of developing permanent hearing loss as a result of voluntary exposure to high-volume music, and we assessed whether such exposure was associated with hearing-related symptoms. Methods. In 2007, 1512

Genetic risk scores for body fat distribution attenuate weight loss in women during dietary intervention

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Svendstrup, M; Allin, K H; Sørensen, T I A

2018-01-01

to lose weight. We aimed to study the effect of weighted genetic risk scores (GRSs) on weight loss based on single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with waist-hip-ratio adjusted for body mass index (WHRadjBMI). METHOD: We included 707 participants (533 women and 174 men) from the NUGENOB multi......-center 10 week diet intervention study with weekly weight measurements. We created 3 GRSs, one including all reported WHRadjBMI SNPs (GRStotal), one including only SNPs with genome wide significance in women or with significantly greater effect in women (GRSwomen), and one excluding SNPs in the GRSwomen...... (GRSmen). The data was analyzed in a mixed linear model framework. RESULTS: The GRStotal and GRSwomen attenuated weight loss in women. The effect was strongest for the GRSwomen with an effect of 2.21 g/risk allele/day [95% CI (0.90;3.52), P=0.0009]. Adjustment for WHR, basal metabolic rate or diet...

24 CFR 902.79 - Substantial default.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... 24 Housing and Urban Development 4 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Substantial default. 902.79 Section... PUBLIC HOUSING ASSESSMENT SYSTEM PHAS Incentives and Remedies § 902.79 Substantial default. (a) Events or conditions that constitute substantial default. The following events or conditions shall constitute...

Impact of graft loss among kidney diseases with a high risk of post-transplant recurrence in the paediatric population

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Van Stralen, Karlijn J; Verrina, Enrico; Belingheri, Mirco

2013-01-01

Some kidney diseases tend to recur in the renal allograft after transplantation. We studied the risk of graft loss among primary renal diseases known for their high risk of recurrence and compared it with that of patients with hypoplasia and/or dysplasia....

Managing for No Net Loss of Ecological Services: An Approach for Quantifying Loss of Coastal Wetlands due to Sea Level Rise.

Science.gov (United States)

Kassakian, Jennifer; Jones, Ann; Martinich, Jeremy; Hudgens, Daniel

2017-05-01

Sea level rise has the potential to substantially alter the extent and nature of coastal wetlands and the critical ecological services they provide. In making choices about how to respond to rising sea level, planners are challenged with weighing easily quantified risks (e.g., loss of property value due to inundation) against those that are more difficult to quantify (e.g., loss of primary production or carbon sequestration services provided by wetlands due to inundation). Our goal was to develop a cost-effective, appropriately-scaled, model-based approach that allows planners to predict, under various sea level rise and response scenarios, the economic cost of wetland loss-with the estimates proxied by the costs of future restoration required to maintain the existing level of wetland habitat services. Our approach applies the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model to predict changes in wetland habitats over the next century, and then applies Habitat Equivalency Analysis to predict the cost of restoration projects required to maintain ecological services at their present, pre-sea level rise level. We demonstrate the application of this approach in the Delaware Bay estuary and in the Indian River Lagoon (Florida), and discuss how this approach can support future coastal decision-making.

Improved Safety Margin Characterization of Risk from Loss of Offsite Power

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nelson, Paul

2017-01-01

Original intent: The original intent of this task was ''support of the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characteristic (RISMC) methodology in order'' ''to address ... efficiency of computation so that more accurate and cost-effective techniques can be used to address safety margin characterizations'' (S. M. Hess et al., ''Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization,'' Procs. ICONE17, Brussels, July 2009, CD format). It was intended that ''in Task 1 itself this improvement will be directed toward upon the very important issue of Loss of Offsite Power (LOOP) events,'' more specifically toward the challenge of efficient computation of the multidimensional nonrecovery integral that has been discussed by many previous contributors to the theory of nuclear safety. It was further envisioned that ''three different computational approaches will be explored,'' corresponding to the three subtasks listed below; deliverables were tied to the individual subtasks.

Estimated medical expenditure and risk of job loss among rheumatoid arthritis patients undergoing tofacitinib treatment: post hoc analyses of two randomized clinical trials.

Science.gov (United States)

Rendas-Baum, Regina; Kosinski, Mark; Singh, Amitabh; Mebus, Charles A; Wilkinson, Bethany E; Wallenstein, Gene V

2017-08-01

RA causes high disability levels and reduces health-related quality of life, triggering increased costs and risk of unemployment. Tofacitinib is an oral Janus kinase inhibitor for the treatment of RA. These post hoc analyses of phase 3 data aimed to assess monthly medical expenditure (MME) and risk of job loss for tofacitinib treatment vs placebo. Data analysed were from two randomized phase 3 studies of RA patients (n = 1115) with inadequate response to MTX or TNF inhibitors (TNFi) receiving tofacitinib 5 or 10 mg twice daily, adalimumab (one study only) or placebo, in combination with MTX. Short Form 36 version 2 Health Survey physical and mental component summary scores were translated into predicted MME via an algorithm and concurrent inability to work and job loss risks at 6, 12 and 24 months, using Medical Outcomes Study data. MME reduction by month 3 was $100 greater for tofacitinib- than placebo-treated TNFi inadequate responders (P 20 and 6% reductions from baseline, respectively. By month 3 of tofacitinib treatment, the odds of inability to work decreased ⩾16%, and risk of future job loss decreased ∼20% (P tofacitinib- than placebo-treated MTX inadequate responders (P tofacitinib treatment, the odds of inability to work decreased ⩾31% and risk of future job loss decreased ⩾25% (P Tofacitinib treatment had a positive impact on estimated medical expenditure and risk of job loss for RA patients with inadequate response to MTX or TNFi. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Rheumatology.

An Index of Loss Aversion

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Köbberling, V.; Wakker, P.P.

2005-01-01

To a considerable extent, risk aversion as it is commonly observed is caused by loss aversion. Several indexes of loss aversion have been proposed in the literature. The one proposed in this paper leads to a clear decomposition of risk attitude into three distinct components: basic utility,

An Index of Loss Aversion

NARCIS (Netherlands)

V. Köbberling (Veronika); P.P. Wakker (Peter)

2005-01-01

textabstractTo a considerable extent, risk aversion as it is commonly observed is caused by loss aversion. Several indexes of loss aversion have been proposed in the literature. The one proposed in this paper leads to a clear decomposition of risk attitude into three distinct components: basic

MANAGEMENT OF CREDIT LOSSES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Natalya P. Anoshkina

2018-06-01

Full Text Available The paper is devoted to the problem of credit loss management topical for modern Russian science and banking practice. The bank’s lending activity is an integral and the most profitable sphere of banking activity. Banks need to take credit risks inherent in their core business and minimize their impact through the establishment of advanced risk management systems. The study, reflected in the present paper, has been conducted in order to determine approaches to the organization of credit loss management in banking. Analysis of the system of management of credit risks and credit losses has shown that they have different scope, object and purpose. In this connection, there is an objective necessity to create a special subsystem for the management of credit losses in banks. On the basis of common bank approaches to credit risk management, the paper develops models of credit loss management: a multi-level management model in the area of ‘operational-tactical-strategic management’ and a functional management model in the area of ‘technology-execution-control’. These models are important for the modern theory and practice of banking, as they allow the bank to manage credit losses on the entire time horizon of the management process, thus opening a wide range of opportunities for the creation and implementation of large-scale programs, as well as specific techniques. This study allows drawing a conclusion about the need to consider control credit losses as a strictly regulated multi-level process, in which each division is assigned with specific objectives, tasks, functions, formally enshrined in the relevant lists, job descriptions and other legal documents.

Developing EHR-driven heart failure risk prediction models using CPXR(Log) with the probabilistic loss function.

Science.gov (United States)

Taslimitehrani, Vahid; Dong, Guozhu; Pereira, Naveen L; Panahiazar, Maryam; Pathak, Jyotishman

2016-04-01

Computerized survival prediction in healthcare identifying the risk of disease mortality, helps healthcare providers to effectively manage their patients by providing appropriate treatment options. In this study, we propose to apply a classification algorithm, Contrast Pattern Aided Logistic Regression (CPXR(Log)) with the probabilistic loss function, to develop and validate prognostic risk models to predict 1, 2, and 5year survival in heart failure (HF) using data from electronic health records (EHRs) at Mayo Clinic. The CPXR(Log) constructs a pattern aided logistic regression model defined by several patterns and corresponding local logistic regression models. One of the models generated by CPXR(Log) achieved an AUC and accuracy of 0.94 and 0.91, respectively, and significantly outperformed prognostic models reported in prior studies. Data extracted from EHRs allowed incorporation of patient co-morbidities into our models which helped improve the performance of the CPXR(Log) models (15.9% AUC improvement), although did not improve the accuracy of the models built by other classifiers. We also propose a probabilistic loss function to determine the large error and small error instances. The new loss function used in the algorithm outperforms other functions used in the previous studies by 1% improvement in the AUC. This study revealed that using EHR data to build prediction models can be very challenging using existing classification methods due to the high dimensionality and complexity of EHR data. The risk models developed by CPXR(Log) also reveal that HF is a highly heterogeneous disease, i.e., different subgroups of HF patients require different types of considerations with their diagnosis and treatment. Our risk models provided two valuable insights for application of predictive modeling techniques in biomedicine: Logistic risk models often make systematic prediction errors, and it is prudent to use subgroup based prediction models such as those given by CPXR

Family losses following truncation selection in populations of half-sib families

Science.gov (United States)

J. H. Roberds; G. Namkoong; H. Kang

1980-01-01

Family losses during truncation selection may be sizable in populations of half-sib families. Substantial losses may occur even in populations containing little or no variation among families. Heavier losses will occur, however, under conditions of high heritability where there is considerable family variation. Standard deviations and therefore variances of family loss...

Age-related hearing loss or presbycusis.

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Qi; Tang, Jianguo

2010-08-01

Aging is a natural consequence of a society developing process. Although many adults retain good hearing as they aging, hearing loss related with age-presbycusis which can vary in severity from mild to substantial is common among elderly persons. There are a number of pathophysiological processes underlying age-related changes in the auditory system as well as in the central nervous systems. Many studies have been dedicated to the illustration of risk factors accumulating presbycusis such as heritability, environment factors, medical conditions, free radical (reactive oxygen species, ROS) and damage of mitochondrial DNA. Left untreated, presbycusis can not only lead sufferers to reduced quality of life, isolation, dependence and frustration, but also affect the healthy people around. These can be partly corrected using hearing aids, but it is not enough, more and more strategies of treatment based on the findings associating with presbycusis should be added rather than using single hearing aids. We review here the pathophysiology; heritability, susceptibility genes and other risk factors including environmental, medical, especially free radical (ROS) and damage of mitochondrial DNA; and some strategies of treatment, as well as promising rehabilitations associating with presbycusis.

Obesity in pediatric kidney transplant recipients and the risks of acute rejection, graft loss and death.

Science.gov (United States)

Ladhani, Maleeka; Lade, Samantha; Alexander, Stephen I; Baur, Louise A; Clayton, Philip A; McDonald, Stephen; Craig, Jonathan C; Wong, Germaine

2017-08-01

Obesity is prevalent in children with chronic kidney disease (CKD), but the health consequences of this combination of comorbidities are uncertain. The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of obesity on the outcomes of children following kidney transplantation. Using data from the ANZDATA Registry (1994-2013), we assessed the association between age-appropriate body mass index (BMI) at the time of transplantation and the subsequent development of acute rejection (within the first 6 months), graft loss and death using adjusted Cox proportional hazards models. Included in our analysis were 750 children ranging in age from 2 to 18 (median age 12) years with a total of 6597 person-years of follow-up (median follow-up 8.4 years). Overall, at transplantation 129 (17.2%) children were classified as being overweight and 61 (8.1%) as being obese. Of the 750 children, 102 (16.2%) experienced acute rejection within the first 6 months of transplantation, 235 (31.3%) lost their allograft and 53 (7.1%) died. Compared to children with normal BMI, the adjusted hazard ratios (HR) for graft loss in children who were underweight, overweight or diagnosed as obese were 1.05 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.70-1.60], 1.03 (95% CI 0.71-1.49) and 1.61 (95% CI 1.05-2.47), respectively. There was no statistically significant association between BMI and acute rejection [underweight: HR 1.07, 95% CI 0.54-2.09; overweight: HR 1.42, 95% CI 0.86-2.34; obese: HR 1.83, 95% CI 0.95-3.51) or patient survival (underweight: HR 1.18, 95% CI 0.54-2.58, overweight: HR 0.85, 95% CI 0.38-1.92; obese: HR 0.80, 95% CI 0.25-2.61). Over 10 years of follow-up, pediatric transplant recipients diagnosed with obesity have a substantially increased risk of allograft failure but not acute rejection of the graft or death.

Effects of weight loss and long-term weight maintenance with diets varying in protein and glycemic index on cardiovascular risk factors

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gögebakan, Özlem; Kohl, Angela; Osterhoff, Martin A.

2011-01-01

We sought to separately examine the effects of either weight loss or diets varying in protein content and glycemic index without further changes in body weight on cardiovascular risk factors within the Diet, Obesity, and Genes study (DiOGenes).......We sought to separately examine the effects of either weight loss or diets varying in protein content and glycemic index without further changes in body weight on cardiovascular risk factors within the Diet, Obesity, and Genes study (DiOGenes)....

Debris flows risk analysis and direct loss estimation: the case study of Valtellina di Tirano, Italy

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Blahůt, Jan; Glade, T.; Sterlacchini, S.

2014-01-01

Roč. 11, č. 2 (2014), s. 288-307 ISSN 1672-6316 Institutional support: RVO:67985891 Keywords : Debris flows * Risk analysis * Economic losses * Central Alps * Italy Subject RIV: DE - Earth Magnetism, Geodesy, Geography OBOR OECD: Physical geography Impact factor: 0.963, year: 2014

Discotheques and the risk of hearing loss among youth: Risky listening behavior and its psychosocial correlates

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vogel, I.; Brug, J.; Ploeg, C.P.B. van der; Raat, H.

2010-01-01

There is an increasing population at risk of hearing loss and tinnitus due to increasing high-volume music listening. To inform prevention strategies and interventions, this study aimed to identify important protection motivation theory-based constructs as well as the constructs 'consideration of

Global building inventory for earthquake loss estimation and risk management

Science.gov (United States)

Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David; Porter, Keith

2010-01-01

We develop a global database of building inventories using taxonomy of global building types for use in near-real-time post-earthquake loss estimation and pre-earthquake risk analysis, for the U.S. Geological Survey’s Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) program. The database is available for public use, subject to peer review, scrutiny, and open enhancement. On a country-by-country level, it contains estimates of the distribution of building types categorized by material, lateral force resisting system, and occupancy type (residential or nonresidential, urban or rural). The database draws on and harmonizes numerous sources: (1) UN statistics, (2) UN Habitat’s demographic and health survey (DHS) database, (3) national housing censuses, (4) the World Housing Encyclopedia and (5) other literature.

Probabilistic, meso-scale flood loss modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Kreibich, Heidi; Botto, Anna; Schröter, Kai; Merz, Bruno

2016-04-01

Flood risk analyses are an important basis for decisions on flood risk management and adaptation. However, such analyses are associated with significant uncertainty, even more if changes in risk due to global change are expected. Although uncertainty analysis and probabilistic approaches have received increased attention during the last years, they are still not standard practice for flood risk assessments and even more for flood loss modelling. State of the art in flood loss modelling is still the use of simple, deterministic approaches like stage-damage functions. Novel probabilistic, multi-variate flood loss models have been developed and validated on the micro-scale using a data-mining approach, namely bagging decision trees (Merz et al. 2013). In this presentation we demonstrate and evaluate the upscaling of the approach to the meso-scale, namely on the basis of land-use units. The model is applied in 19 municipalities which were affected during the 2002 flood by the River Mulde in Saxony, Germany (Botto et al. submitted). The application of bagging decision tree based loss models provide a probability distribution of estimated loss per municipality. Validation is undertaken on the one hand via a comparison with eight deterministic loss models including stage-damage functions as well as multi-variate models. On the other hand the results are compared with official loss data provided by the Saxon Relief Bank (SAB). The results show, that uncertainties of loss estimation remain high. Thus, the significant advantage of this probabilistic flood loss estimation approach is that it inherently provides quantitative information about the uncertainty of the prediction. References: Merz, B.; Kreibich, H.; Lall, U. (2013): Multi-variate flood damage assessment: a tree-based data-mining approach. NHESS, 13(1), 53-64. Botto A, Kreibich H, Merz B, Schröter K (submitted) Probabilistic, multi-variable flood loss modelling on the meso-scale with BT-FLEMO. Risk Analysis.

Risk assessment of influence factors on occupational hearing loss in noise – exposed workers in typical metal industry

OpenAIRE

Farhadian Maryam; Aliabadi Mohsen; Shahidi Reza

2014-01-01

Background & Objectives : Worker exposure conditions such as noise level, exposure duration, use of hearing protection devices and health behaviors are commonly related to noise induced hearing loss. The objective of this study was risk assessment of influence factors on occupational hearing loss in noise exposed workers in typical noisy process . Methods : Information about occupational exposure of seventy workers employed in a noisy press workshop was gathered using the standard quest...

TREES OF DAMAGES AS A MODEL OF RISKS ASSESSMENT FOR AVAILABILITY LOSSES AFTER CHANGES IN FINANCIAL INFORMATION SYSTEMS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. A. Arustamov

2013-03-01

Full Text Available The article deals with the methodology for risks assessment of availability losses in financial information systems after changes made in them by using trees of damages. A description of damages tree generation for each identified possible event is presented that potentially can lead to the system availability loss. An example is given, illustrating the methodology application that gives the possibility to choose the optimal software testing strategy.

Educational Implications of Conductive Hearing Loss in School Children.

Science.gov (United States)

Lyon, David J.; And Others

1986-01-01

The study investigated specific linguistic abilities/disabilities of 15 children with conductive hearing loss and a history of middle ear dysfunction. Results found significant deficits in verbal intelligence, word recognition, and receptive syntactic skills substantiating the finding that conductive hearing loss due to otitis media is deleterious…

Bulk and surface loss in superconducting transmon qubits

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dial, Oliver; McClure, Douglas T; Poletto, Stefano; Keefe, G A; Rothwell, Mary Beth; Gambetta, Jay M; Abraham, David W; Chow, Jerry M; Steffen, Matthias

2016-01-01

Decoherence of superconducting transmon qubits is purported to be consistent with surface loss from two-level systems on the substrate surface. Here, we present a study of surface loss in transmon devices, explicitly designed to have varying sensitivities to different surface loss contributors. Our experiments also encompass two particular different sapphire substrates, which reveal the onset of a yet unknown additional loss mechanism outside of surface loss for one of the substrates. Tests across different wafers and devices demonstrate substantial variation, and we emphasize the importance of testing large numbers of devices for disentangling different sources of decoherence. (paper)

Auditory brainstem response screening for hearing loss in high risk neonates.

Science.gov (United States)

Watson, D R; McClelland, R J; Adams, D A

1996-07-01

The present paper reports the findings of a 7 year study evaluating the use of the auditory brainstem response (ABR) as the basis of a hearing screening procedure in a group of newborns at increased risk of hearing impairment. A Special Care Baby Unit (SCBU) population of 417 infants with diverse clinical backgrounds and treatment histories was tested for hearing impairment at birth using ABR audiometry. Some 332 passed the original screen at 30 dBnHL test level in both ears. Of the failure group, 18 did not survive and 32 had some degree of hearing impairment confirmed, nine of which were sensorineural in origin. An increased incidence of persistent middle ear disease was also noted in the failure group. A detailed operational analysis demonstrates that provided appropriate pass/fail criteria are adopted, the ABR technique offers excellent sensitivity and specificity for the detection of significant hearing loss in the test population. Furthermore, the study establishes that implementation of an ABR-based screening programme could reduce the average age at detection of permanent hearing loss by 7 months. A cost assessment shows that the introduction of such a targetted screening procedure could be done at a reasonable outlay.

Effect of weight loss on the cardiovascular risk profile of obese patients with psoriasis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Peter; Zachariae, Claus; Christensen, Robin

2014-01-01

Psoriasis is associated with obesity and other cardiovascular risk factors including endothelial dysfunction. We aimed to investigate the effects of weight loss on the cardiovascular risk profile of obese patients with psoriasis. A randomised controlled study was conducted in which we measured...... the microvascular endothelial function with peripheral arterial tonometry (PAT), selected plasma markers of endothelial function, and traditional cardiovascular risk factors in 60 obese patients with psoriasis. The participants were randomised to either low-energy diet (n = 30) providing 800-1,000 kcal/day for 8...... weeks followed by 8 weeks of reduced food intake reaching 1,200 kcal/day or normal healthy foods (n = 30) for 16 weeks. The intervention group lost significantly more weight than controls, which resulted in significant reductions of diastolic blood pressure, resting heart rate, total cholesterol, VLDL...

Extremely short duration high intensity interval training substantially improves insulin action in young healthy males

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Babraj, John A; Vollaard, Niels B J; Keast, Cameron

2009-01-01

BACKGROUND: Traditional high volume aerobic exercise training reduces cardiovascular and metabolic disease risk but involves a substantial time commitment. Extremely low volume high-intensity interval training (HIT) has recently been demonstrated to produce improvements to aerobic function...... cycle sprints per session). Aerobic performance (250-kJ self-paced cycling time trial), and glucose, insulin and NEFA responses to a 75-g oral glucose load (oral glucose tolerance test; OGTT) were determined before and after training. RESULTS: Following 2 weeks of HIT, the area under the plasma glucose......, to substantially improve insulin action in young sedentary subjects is remarkable. This novel time-efficient training paradigm can be used as a strategy to reduce metabolic risk factors in young and middle aged sedentary populations who otherwise would not adhere to time consuming traditional aerobic exercise...

Modeling returns volatility: Realized GARCH incorporating realized risk measure

Science.gov (United States)

Jiang, Wei; Ruan, Qingsong; Li, Jianfeng; Li, Ye

2018-06-01

This study applies realized GARCH models by introducing several risk measures of intraday returns into the measurement equation, to model the daily volatility of E-mini S&P 500 index futures returns. Besides using the conventional realized measures, realized volatility and realized kernel as our benchmarks, we also use generalized realized risk measures, realized absolute deviation, and two realized tail risk measures, realized value-at-risk and realized expected shortfall. The empirical results show that realized GARCH models using the generalized realized risk measures provide better volatility estimation for the in-sample and substantial improvement in volatility forecasting for the out-of-sample. In particular, the realized expected shortfall performs best for all of the alternative realized measures. Our empirical results reveal that future volatility may be more attributable to present losses (risk measures). The results are robust to different sample estimation windows.

Discotheques and the Risk of Hearing Loss among Youth: Risky Listening Behavior and Its Psychosocial Correlates

Science.gov (United States)

Vogel, Ineke; Brug, Johannes; Van Der Ploeg, Catharina P. B.; Raat, Hein

2010-01-01

There is an increasing population at risk of hearing loss and tinnitus due to increasing high-volume music listening. To inform prevention strategies and interventions, this study aimed to identify important protection motivation theory-based constructs as well as the constructs "consideration of future consequences" and "habit…

Individual survival curves comparing subjective and observed mortality risks.

Science.gov (United States)

Bissonnette, Luc; Hurd, Michael D; Michaud, Pierre-Carl

2017-12-01

We compare individual survival curves constructed from objective (actual mortality) and elicited subjective information (probability of survival to a given target age). We develop a methodology to estimate jointly subjective and objective individual survival curves accounting for rounding on subjective reports of perceived survival. We make use of the long follow-up period in the Health and Retirement Study and the high quality of mortality data to estimate individual survival curves that feature both observed and unobserved heterogeneity. This allows us to compare objective and subjective estimates of remaining life expectancy for various groups and compare welfare effects of objective and subjective mortality risk using the life cycle model of consumption. We find that subjective and objective hazards are not the same. The median welfare loss from misperceptions of mortality risk when annuities are not available is 7% of current wealth at age 65 whereas more than 25% of respondents have losses larger than 60% of wealth. When annuities are available and exogenously given, the welfare loss is substantially lower. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Excessive application of pig manure increases the risk of P loss in calcic cinnamon soil in China.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Yanju; Zhang, Haipeng; Qian, Xiaoqing; Duan, Jiannan; Wang, Gailan

2017-12-31

Soil phosphorus (P) is a critical factor affecting crop yields and water environmental quality. To investigate the degree of loss risk and forms of soil P in calcic cinnamon soil, the P fraction activities in soils were analysed using chemical methods, combined with an in situ field experiment. Seven treatments were set in this study, including control (unfertilized), no P fertilizer (No-P), mineral P fertilizer (Min-P), low (L-Man) and high (H-Man) quantities of pig manure, Min-P+L-Man, and Min-P+H-Man. The results showed that manure fertilizer could not only significantly increase maize yield but could also enhance the accumulation of soil P in organic and inorganic forms. After 23years of repeated fertilization, the soil Olsen-P contents respectively showed 64.7-, 43.7- and 31.9-fold increases in the Min-P+H-Man, Min-P+L-Man and H-Man treatments, while the soil Olsen-P in Min-P treatment only increased 23.7-fold. The soil Olsen-P thresholds ranged from 22.59 to 32.48mgkg -1 in calcic cinnamon soil to maintain a higher maize yield as well as a lower risk of P loss. Therefore, long-term excessive manure application could obviously raise the content of soil Olsen-P and increase the risk of P loss in calcic cinnamon soil. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Is there a risk to safety when working in the New South Wales underground coal-mining industry while having binaural noise-induced hearing loss?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Viljoen, D.A.; Nie, V.; Guest, M. [University of Newcastle, Newcastle, NSW (Australia)

2006-03-15

This study is designed to investigate the possible association between hearing loss and accidents in the New South Wales underground coal-mining industry. The study was conducted, gathering data over a 10-year period from 1994 to 2003, which identified 97 cases that have had accidents and 983 controls that have had no accidents. Hearing loss levels were noted and compared in the cases and controls. Multiple logistic regression was used to determine whether the variables were significant risk factors in the occurrence of accidents. Hearing loss levels in the total cohort varied from 0 to 54%. The proportion of cases with hearing loss appeared to be significantly higher in the young age group of {lt} 29 years than in the controls, but was not significantly different in the older age groups. This study indicates that workers who have lost up to 54% binaural high tone hearing and are older than 29 years do not appear to have an increased risk to safety when compared with workers who do not have hearing loss. However, workers in the young age group of {lt} 29 years who have high tone hearing loss may be at an increased risk of accident.

Tooth loss caused by displaced elastic during simple preprosthetic orthodontic treatment

Science.gov (United States)

Dianiskova, Simona; Calzolari, Chiara; Migliorati, Marco; Silvestrini-Biavati, Armando; Isola, Gaetano; Savoldi, Fabio; Dalessandri, Domenico; Paganelli, Corrado

2016-01-01

The use of elastics to close a diastema or correct tooth malpositions can create unintended consequences if not properly controlled. The American Association of Orthodontists recently issued a consumer alert, warning of “a substantial risk for irreparable damage” from a new trend called “do-it-yourself” orthodontics, consisting of patients autonomously using elastics to correct tooth position. The elastics can work their way below the gums and around the roots of the teeth, causing damage to the periodontium and even resulting in tooth loss. The cost of implants to replace these teeth would well exceed the cost of proper orthodontic care. This damage could also occur in a dental office, when a general dentist tries to perform a simplified orthodontic correction of a minor tooth malposition. The present case report describes a case of tooth loss caused by a displaced intraoral elastic, which occurred during a simple preprosthetic orthodontic treatment. PMID:27672645

Aersol particle losses in sampling systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fan, B.J.; Wong, F.S.; Ortiz, C.A.; Anand, N.K.; McFarland, A.R.

1993-01-01

When aerosols are sampled from stacks and ducts, it is usually necessary to transport them from the point of sampling to a location of collection or analysis. Losses of aerosol particles can occur in the inlet region of the probe, in straight horizontal and vertical tubes and in elbows. For probes in laminary flow, the Saffman lift force can cause substantial losses of particles in a short inlet region. An empirical model has been developed to predict probe inlet losses, which are often on the order of 40% for 10 μm AED particles. A user-friendly PC computer code, DEPOSITION, has been setup to model losses in transport systems. Experiments have been conducted to compare the actual aerosol particle losses in transport systems with those predicted by the DEPOSITION code

Recurrent pregnancy loss

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Egerup, P; Kolte, A M; Larsen, E C

2016-01-01

STUDY QUESTION: Is there a different prognostic impact for consecutive and non-consecutive early pregnancy losses in women with secondary recurrent pregnancy loss (RPL)? SUMMARY ANSWER: Only consecutive early pregnancy losses after the last birth have a statistically significant negative prognostic...... impact in women with secondary RPL. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: The risk of a new pregnancy loss increases with the number of previous pregnancy losses in patients with RPL. Second trimester losses seem to exhibit a stronger negative impact than early losses. It is unknown whether the sequence of pregnancy...... losses plays a role for the prognosis in patients with a prior birth. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: This retrospective cohort study of pregnancy outcome in patients with unexplained secondary RPL included in three previously published, Danish double-blinded placebo-controlled trials of intravenous...

An Evaluation of Sensory Neural Hearing Loss in Thalassaemic Patients Treated with Desferrioxamine and Its Risk Factors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M Sonbolestan

2005-07-01

Full Text Available Back ground: In major thalassaemia patients who need blood transfusion, iron overload is a major therapeutic disadvantage that leads to heart failure which is the major cause of death in such patients. Desferrioxamine (DFO is the most efficient factor for iron chelation, but it carries adverse effects such sensory-neural hearing loss. Methods: The study began in March 2002 and continued untill March 2003, on 160 cases of thalassaemia to determine the incidence of sensory – neural hearing loss and its risk factors in patients who received Desferrioxamine (DFO. All cases underwent audiometric tests. Retrospectively, other needed information were either obtained through interview or extracted from the medical files. Results were analyzed with ANOVA, t-test and Chi-square tests. Results: Seventy-six patients of the total 156 patients showed impairment in PTA (48.7% with 24 of them suffering significant involvement (15.4%. These abnormalities generally affected high frequencies including, 4000 and 8000 Hz. Male gender, increased serum billirubin level and fasting blood sugar were statistically correlated with hearing loss (p.v = 0.038, p.v = 0.38, p.v = 0.002 respectively. There was no significant correlation between hearing loss and other factors. Mean DFO administration in patients, was 29.69 mg/kg/day and mean therapeutic index of DFO was 0.01 mg/kg/day/mg/lit. Both of them were below the critical level (<40mg/kg/day and <0.025mg/kg/day/mg/lit respectively, however hearing loss had developed. Conclusion: Controlling DFO dosage per se does not seem to be enough for decreasing ototoxicity rate. Periodic audiometric tests are highly recommended to detect hearing loss as soon as possible. There are some other factors such as male gender, increased billirubin and FBS, which contribute to DFO ototoxicity. Looking for these risk factors and controlling them, would help identifying susceptible patients and preventing this complication. Key words

Efforts to reduce stratospheric ozone loss affect agriculture

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Weare, B.C.

1995-01-01

Research has shown that the increased ultraviolet radiation reaching the Earth's surface resulting from stratospheric ozone loss poses a danger to everyone. Concern about ozone loss prompted many nations to ratify the Montreal Protocol, the most comprehensive international environmental agreement ever enacted. Several provisions of this protocol will have substantial, long-term effects on the agricultural industry. Agriculture contributes substantially to ozone depletion, primarily through its use of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) for refrigeration in processing, storage and transport of meats and produce. This paper is meant to serve as an overview of the scientific basis for ozone depletion concerns, a description of the current international policy agreement, and the possible consequences of that policy for agriculture. (author)

A World at Risk: Aggregating Development Trends to Forecast Global Habitat Conversion

Science.gov (United States)

Oakleaf, James R.; Kennedy, Christina M.; Baruch-Mordo, Sharon; West, Paul C.; Gerber, James S.; Jarvis, Larissa; Kiesecker, Joseph

2015-01-01

A growing and more affluent human population is expected to increase the demand for resources and to accelerate habitat modification, but by how much and where remains unknown. Here we project and aggregate global spatial patterns of expected urban and agricultural expansion, conventional and unconventional oil and gas, coal, solar, wind, biofuels and mining development. Cumulatively, these threats place at risk 20% of the remaining global natural lands (19.68 million km2) and could result in half of the world’s biomes becoming >50% converted while doubling and tripling the extent of land converted in South America and Africa, respectively. Regionally, substantial shifts in land conversion could occur in Southern and Western South America, Central and Eastern Africa, and the Central Rocky Mountains of North America. With only 5% of the Earth’s at-risk natural lands under strict legal protection, estimating and proactively mitigating multi-sector development risk is critical for curtailing the further substantial loss of nature. PMID:26445282

A World at Risk: Aggregating Development Trends to Forecast Global Habitat Conversion.

Science.gov (United States)

Oakleaf, James R; Kennedy, Christina M; Baruch-Mordo, Sharon; West, Paul C; Gerber, James S; Jarvis, Larissa; Kiesecker, Joseph

2015-01-01

A growing and more affluent human population is expected to increase the demand for resources and to accelerate habitat modification, but by how much and where remains unknown. Here we project and aggregate global spatial patterns of expected urban and agricultural expansion, conventional and unconventional oil and gas, coal, solar, wind, biofuels and mining development. Cumulatively, these threats place at risk 20% of the remaining global natural lands (19.68 million km2) and could result in half of the world's biomes becoming >50% converted while doubling and tripling the extent of land converted in South America and Africa, respectively. Regionally, substantial shifts in land conversion could occur in Southern and Western South America, Central and Eastern Africa, and the Central Rocky Mountains of North America. With only 5% of the Earth's at-risk natural lands under strict legal protection, estimating and proactively mitigating multi-sector development risk is critical for curtailing the further substantial loss of nature.

A World at Risk: Aggregating Development Trends to Forecast Global Habitat Conversion.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

James R Oakleaf

Full Text Available A growing and more affluent human population is expected to increase the demand for resources and to accelerate habitat modification, but by how much and where remains unknown. Here we project and aggregate global spatial patterns of expected urban and agricultural expansion, conventional and unconventional oil and gas, coal, solar, wind, biofuels and mining development. Cumulatively, these threats place at risk 20% of the remaining global natural lands (19.68 million km2 and could result in half of the world's biomes becoming >50% converted while doubling and tripling the extent of land converted in South America and Africa, respectively. Regionally, substantial shifts in land conversion could occur in Southern and Western South America, Central and Eastern Africa, and the Central Rocky Mountains of North America. With only 5% of the Earth's at-risk natural lands under strict legal protection, estimating and proactively mitigating multi-sector development risk is critical for curtailing the further substantial loss of nature.

Prevalence of hearing loss among high risk newborns hospitalized in hospitals affiliated to Tehran University of Medical Sciences

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ali Zamani

2010-04-01

Full Text Available "n Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE AR-SA MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family:Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;} Background: American pediatric Association proposes to screen all neonates with Oto-Acoustic Emission (OAE. In developing countries, because of several limitations, health policy makers recommend to screen only in high risk patients. This study is performed with the aim to screen hearing loss in 950 high risk newborns hospitalized in hospitals affiliated to Tehran University using the OAE test."n"nMethods: A total of 950 neonates hospitalized in the Neonatal and NICU wards of Vali-e-Asr, Shariati, Medical Center and Bahrami Hospitals during the years 2004-2006 who showed at least one risk factor using TEOAE hearing test were enrolled into this cross-sectional descriptive analytical study and were diagnosed with mild deafness and total deafness. Blood exchange due to hyperbillirubinemia, septicemia, congenital heart disease, the fifth minute apgar scores below six, PROM more than six hours, epilepsia, need to NICU more than five hours, pneumonia and Oto-Toxic drugs were considered as risk factors. Data was past medical history, current disease, admission cause, sign & symptoms and complications of disease."n"nResults: Multivariate logistic regression and paired t-test showed that blood exchange, low birth weight and low

Foreign exchange risk in terms of global financial crisis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michał Buszko

2009-12-01

Full Text Available Fx risk is one of the most important types of risk of financial activity. In practice, this risk comprises several risk aspects related to currencies exchanging, however most often it is identified with unexpected changes of their prices. In terms of the global financial crisis of 2007–2009, the fx risk has raised significantly, revealing a high daily volatility, increased spreads and the reversal of long-term exchange rate trends. Such increased risk especially influenced emerging markets economies, including Poland. Its consequence was quick strengthening of Polish currency at the beginning of the global crisis followed by a very sudden fall of its value. This event led to a substantial increase of banking risk, investment funds and corporate operations. It changed the structure of GDP sources as well as generated huge losses for exporting companies, using currency options hedging strategies.

Pregnancy Loss and Miscarriage

Science.gov (United States)

... D linked to miscarriage among women with prior pregnancy loss Release: Anti-HIV drug combination does not increase preterm birth risk, study suggests Release: Elevated blood pressure before pregnancy may increase chance of pregnancy loss All related ...

Risk of Fetal Loss Associated With Invasive Testing Following Combined First-Trimester Screening for Down Syndrome

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wulff, C. B.; Gerds, T. A.; Rode, L.

2016-01-01

from being based on maternal age to combined first-trimester screening (cFTS) for trisomy 21. The aim of the study was to assess prospectively the risk of fetal loss associated with CVS and AC after cFTS for Down syndrome. A nationwide population-based study (Danish Fetal Medicine Database, 2008...

World offshore energy loss statistics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kaiser, Mark J.

2007-01-01

Offshore operations present a unique set of environmental conditions and adverse exposure not observed in a land environment taking place in a confined space in a hostile environment under the constant danger of catastrophe and loss. It is possible to engineer some risks to a very low threshold of probability, but losses and unforeseen events can never be entirely eliminated because of cost considerations, the human factor, and environmental uncertainty. Risk events occur infrequently but have the potential of generating large losses, as evident by the 2005 hurricane season in the Gulf of Mexico, which was the most destructive and costliest natural disaster in the history of offshore production. The purpose of this paper is to provide a statistical assessment of energy losses in offshore basins using the Willis Energy Loss database. A description of the loss categories and causes of property damage are provided, followed by a statistical assessment of damage and loss broken out by region, cause, and loss category for the time horizon 1970-2004. The impact of the 2004-2005 hurricane season in the Gulf of Mexico is summarized

Not all streaks are the same: Individual differences in risk preferences during runs of gains and losses

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christopher T. Ball

2012-07-01

Full Text Available Runs of gains and losses are particularly salient to decision makers because of their perceived departure from randomness, as well as their immediate impact on the financial status of the decision makers. Past research has focused on decision making biases that relate to faulty conceptions of chance and luck, such as the gambler's fallacy and the hot hand effect. Participants in the current study bet on the outcomes of a long sequence of simulated coin tosses. Risk preferences were found to change as a function of run valence (i.e., losses vs. gains, run length, and financial status. Individuals were found to differ in the effect of all of these factors, in their responses to runs of gains and losses in sequential risky choice.

Mapping Erosion Risk in California's Rangelands Using the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE)

Science.gov (United States)

Salls, W. B.; O'Geen, T. T.

2015-12-01

Soil loss constitutes a multi-faceted problem for agriculture: in addition to reducing soil fertility and crop yield, it compromises downstream water quality. Sediment itself is a major issue for aquatic ecosystems, but also serves as a vector for transporting nutrients, pesticides, and pathogens. Rangelands are thought to be a contributor to water quality degradation in California, particularly in the northern Coast Range. Though total maximum daily loads (TMDLs) have been imposed in some watersheds, and countless rangeland water quality outreach activities have been conducted, the connection between grazing intensity recommendations and changes in water quality is poorly understood at the state level. This disconnect gives rise to poorly informed regulations and discourages adoption of best management practices by ranchers. By applying the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) at a statewide scale, we highlighted areas most prone to erosion. We also investigated how two different grazing intensity scenarios affect modeled soil loss. Geospatial data layers representing the USLE parameters—rainfall erosivity, soil erodibility, slope length and steepness, and cover—were overlaid to model annual soil loss. Monitored suspended sediment data from a small North Coast watershed with grazing as the predominant land use was used to validate the model. Modeled soil loss values were nearly one order of magnitude higher than monitored values; average soil loss feeding the downstream-most site was modeled at 0.329 t ha-1 yr-1, whereas storm-derived sediment passing the site over two years was calculated to be 0.037 t ha-1 yr-1. This discrepancy may stem from the fact that the USLE models detached sediment, whereas stream monitoring reflects sediment detached and subsequently transported to the waterway. Preliminary findings from the statewide map support the concern that the North Coast is particularly at risk given its combination of intense rain, erodible soils, and

The Impact of Social and Cultural Difference in Relation to Job Loss and Financial Planning: Reflections on the Risk Society

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David Abbott

2006-01-01

Full Text Available This paper is based on data collected as part of a research study which looks at how different social and cultural groups frame, and respond to, the risk of income and/or job loss. Writers like LASH, DOUGLAS and LUPTON have placed an emphasis on the importance of group membership and social categories in structuring response to different types of risk preferring to talk about "risk cultures" rather than "risk society". However, the writers acknowledge that there is little empirical research which explores this. As the first stage of our research, focus groups in two parts of the UK explored the relationship between risk and social difference with an emphasis on the risk of job or income loss. The groups were comprised of lesbian, gay and bisexual people; people from Black and Minority Ethnic backgrounds; Disabled people; and, people who actively practice a religion. Participants did not see strong links between their sexuality, race, or religion and their perceptions of, or responses to, risk. Income, and attitudinal factors were cited as being more important. Disabled people however were much more likely to make connections between being disabled and a range of barriers to responding to risky situations. URN: urn:nbn:de:0114-fqs0601160

How can investment in the landscape or the interface reduce the risk of house loss from wildfires? A comparative study between Sydney, Australia and California, USA

Science.gov (United States)

Penman, Trent; Bradstock, Ross; Collins, Luke; Fotheringham, Cj; Keeley, Jon; Labiosa, Bill; Price, Owen; Syphard, Alex

2013-04-01

Wildfire can result in significant losses to people and property. Management agencies undertake a range of actions in the landscape and at the interface to reduce this risk. Data relating to the success of individual treatments varies, with some approaches well understood and others less so. Research has rarely attempted to consider the interactive effects of treatments in order to determine optimal management strategies that reduce the risk of loss. Bayesian Networks provide a statistical framework for undertaking such an analysis. Here we apply Bayesian Networks to examine the trade-offs in investment in preventative actions (e.g., fuel treatment, community education, development controls) and suppressive actions (e.g., initial attack, landscape suppression, property protection) in two fire prone regions -Sydney, Australia and California, USA. Investment in management actions at the interface resulted in the greatest reduction in the risk of house loss for both of the study regions. Landscape treatments had a limited ability to change the risk of house loss.

Recurrent pregnancy loss: what is the impact of consecutive versus non-consecutive losses?

Science.gov (United States)

Egerup, P; Kolte, A M; Larsen, E C; Krog, M; Nielsen, H S; Christiansen, O B

2016-11-01

Is there a different prognostic impact for consecutive and non-consecutive early pregnancy losses in women with secondary recurrent pregnancy loss (RPL)? Only consecutive early pregnancy losses after the last birth have a statistically significant negative prognostic impact in women with secondary RPL. The risk of a new pregnancy loss increases with the number of previous pregnancy losses in patients with RPL. Second trimester losses seem to exhibit a stronger negative impact than early losses. It is unknown whether the sequence of pregnancy losses plays a role for the prognosis in patients with a prior birth. This retrospective cohort study of pregnancy outcome in patients with unexplained secondary RPL included in three previously published, Danish double-blinded placebo-controlled trials of intravenous immunoglobulin (IvIg) conducted from 1991 to 2014. No other treatments were given. Patients with documented explained pregnancy losses (ectopic pregnancies and aneuploid miscarriages) were excluded. Of the 168 patients included in the trials, 127 had secondary RPL and experienced a subsequent live birth or unexplained pregnancy loss in the first pregnancy after giving informed consent to participate in the trials (the index pregnancy). Data analyzed by multivariate analysis included the independent variables age, the number of early pregnancy losses before and after the last birth, respectively and a second trimester pregnancy loss before or after the last birth, respectively. The outcome variable was unexplained loss in the index pregnancy. In patients with secondary RPL, both a late and each early loss before the last birth did not significantly influence the risk of a new pregnancy loss in the index pregnancy: incidence rate ratio (IRR) 1.31 (95% CI 0.62-2.77) and IRR 0.88 (95% CI 0.70-1.11), respectively. In contrast, the impact on risk of pregnancy loss conferred by a late and by each early pregnancy loss occurring after the birth was significant: IRR 2

Decision-making under risk of loss in children.

Science.gov (United States)

Steelandt, Sophie; Broihanne, Marie-Hélène; Romain, Amélie; Thierry, Bernard; Dufour, Valérie

2013-01-01

In human adults, judgment errors are known to often lead to irrational decision-making in risky contexts. While these errors can affect the accuracy of profit evaluation, they may have once enhanced survival in dangerous contexts following a "better be safe than sorry" rule of thumb. Such a rule can be critical for children, and it could develop early on. Here, we investigated the rationality of choices and the possible occurrence of judgment errors in children aged 3 to 9 years when exposed to a risky trade. Children were allocated with a piece of cookie that they could either keep or risk in exchange of the content of one cup among 6, visible in front of them. In the cups, cookies could be of larger, equal or smaller sizes than the initial allocation. Chances of losing or winning were manipulated by presenting different combinations of cookie sizes in the cups (for example 3 large, 2 equal and 1 small cookie). We investigated the rationality of children's response using the theoretical models of Expected Utility Theory (EUT) and Cumulative Prospect Theory. Children aged 3 to 4 years old were unable to discriminate the profitability of exchanging in the different combinations. From 5 years, children were better at maximizing their benefit in each combination, their decisions were negatively induced by the probability of losing, and they exhibited a framing effect, a judgment error found in adults. Confronting data to the EUT indicated that children aged over 5 were risk-seekers but also revealed inconsistencies in their choices. According to a complementary model, the Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT), they exhibited loss aversion, a pattern also found in adults. These findings confirm that adult-like judgment errors occur in children, which suggests that they possess a survival value.

Decision-making under risk of loss in children.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sophie Steelandt

Full Text Available In human adults, judgment errors are known to often lead to irrational decision-making in risky contexts. While these errors can affect the accuracy of profit evaluation, they may have once enhanced survival in dangerous contexts following a "better be safe than sorry" rule of thumb. Such a rule can be critical for children, and it could develop early on. Here, we investigated the rationality of choices and the possible occurrence of judgment errors in children aged 3 to 9 years when exposed to a risky trade. Children were allocated with a piece of cookie that they could either keep or risk in exchange of the content of one cup among 6, visible in front of them. In the cups, cookies could be of larger, equal or smaller sizes than the initial allocation. Chances of losing or winning were manipulated by presenting different combinations of cookie sizes in the cups (for example 3 large, 2 equal and 1 small cookie. We investigated the rationality of children's response using the theoretical models of Expected Utility Theory (EUT and Cumulative Prospect Theory. Children aged 3 to 4 years old were unable to discriminate the profitability of exchanging in the different combinations. From 5 years, children were better at maximizing their benefit in each combination, their decisions were negatively induced by the probability of losing, and they exhibited a framing effect, a judgment error found in adults. Confronting data to the EUT indicated that children aged over 5 were risk-seekers but also revealed inconsistencies in their choices. According to a complementary model, the Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT, they exhibited loss aversion, a pattern also found in adults. These findings confirm that adult-like judgment errors occur in children, which suggests that they possess a survival value.

Decision-Making under Risk of Loss in Children

Science.gov (United States)

Steelandt, Sophie; Broihanne, Marie-Hélène; Romain, Amélie; Thierry, Bernard; Dufour, Valérie

2013-01-01

In human adults, judgment errors are known to often lead to irrational decision-making in risky contexts. While these errors can affect the accuracy of profit evaluation, they may have once enhanced survival in dangerous contexts following a “better be safe than sorry” rule of thumb. Such a rule can be critical for children, and it could develop early on. Here, we investigated the rationality of choices and the possible occurrence of judgment errors in children aged 3 to 9 years when exposed to a risky trade. Children were allocated with a piece of cookie that they could either keep or risk in exchange of the content of one cup among 6, visible in front of them. In the cups, cookies could be of larger, equal or smaller sizes than the initial allocation. Chances of losing or winning were manipulated by presenting different combinations of cookie sizes in the cups (for example 3 large, 2 equal and 1 small cookie). We investigated the rationality of children's response using the theoretical models of Expected Utility Theory (EUT) and Cumulative Prospect Theory. Children aged 3 to 4 years old were unable to discriminate the profitability of exchanging in the different combinations. From 5 years, children were better at maximizing their benefit in each combination, their decisions were negatively induced by the probability of losing, and they exhibited a framing effect, a judgment error found in adults. Confronting data to the EUT indicated that children aged over 5 were risk-seekers but also revealed inconsistencies in their choices. According to a complementary model, the Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT), they exhibited loss aversion, a pattern also found in adults. These findings confirm that adult-like judgment errors occur in children, which suggests that they possess a survival value. PMID:23349682

Lessons about parks and poverty from a decade of forest loss and economic growth around Kibale National Park, Uganda.

Science.gov (United States)

Naughton-Treves, Lisa; Alix-Garcia, Jennifer; Chapman, Colin A

2011-08-23

We use field data linked to satellite image analysis to examine the relationship between biodiversity loss, deforestation, and poverty around Kibale National Park (KNP) in western Uganda, 1996-2006. Over this decade, KNP generally maintained forest cover, tree species, and primate populations, whereas neighboring communal forest patches were reduced by half and showed substantial declines in tree species and primate populations. However, a bad decade for forest outside the park proved a prosperous one for most local residents. Panel data for 252 households show substantial improvement in welfare indicators (e.g., safer water, more durable roof material), with the greatest increases found among those with highest initial assets. A combination of regression analysis and matching estimators shows that although the poor tend to be located on the park perimeter, proximity to the park has no measureable effect on growth of productive assets. The risk for land loss among the poor was inversely correlated with proximity to the park, initial farm size, and decline in adjacent communal forests. We conclude the current disproportionate presence of poor households at the edge of the park does not signal that the park is a poverty trap. Rather, Kibale appears to provide protection against desperation sales and farm loss among those most vulnerable.

Self-assessment of hearing status and risk of noise-induced hearing loss in workers in a rolling stock plant.

Science.gov (United States)

Pawlaczyk-Łuszczyńska, Małgorzata; Dudarewicz, Adam; Zamojska, Małgorzata; Sliwinska-Kowalska, Mariola

2012-01-01

Noise measurements and questionnaire inquiries were carried out for 124 workers of a rolling stock plant to develop a hearing conservation program. On the basis of that data, the risk of noise-induced hearing loss (NIHL) was evaluated. Additionally, the workers' hearing ability was assessed with the (modified) Amsterdam inventory for auditory disability and handicap, (m)AIADH. The workers had been exposed to noise at A-weighted daily noise exposure levels of 74-110 dB for 1-40 years. Almost one third of the workers complained of hearing impairment and the (m)AIADH results showed some hearing difficulties in over half of them. The estimated risk of hearing loss over 25 dB in the frequency range of 3-6 kHz was 41-50% when the standard method of predicting NIHL specified in Standard No. ISO 1999:1990 was used. This risk increased to 50-67% when noise impulsiveness, coexposure to organic solvents, elevated blood pressure and smoking were included in calculations.

Opportunity Loss Minimization and Newsvendor Behavior

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xinsheng Xu

2017-01-01

Full Text Available To study the decision bias in newsvendor behavior, this paper introduces an opportunity loss minimization criterion into the newsvendor model with backordering. We apply the Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR measure to hedge against the potential risks from newsvendor’s order decision. We obtain the optimal order quantities for a newsvendor to minimize the expected opportunity loss and CVaR of opportunity loss. It is proven that the newsvendor’s optimal order quantity is related to the density function of market demand when the newsvendor exhibits risk-averse preference, which is inconsistent with the results in Schweitzer and Cachon (2000. The numerical example shows that the optimal order quantity that minimizes CVaR of opportunity loss is bigger than expected profit maximization (EPM order quantity for high-profit products and smaller than EPM order quantity for low-profit products, which is different from the experimental results in Schweitzer and Cachon (2000. A sensitivity analysis of changing the operation parameters of the two optimal order quantities is discussed. Our results confirm that high return implies high risk, while low risk comes with low return. Based on the results, some managerial insights are suggested for the risk management of the newsvendor model with backordering.

Randomized trial of a phone- and web-based weight loss program for women at elevated breast cancer risk: the HELP study.

Science.gov (United States)

Cadmus-Bertram, Lisa; Nelson, Sandahl H; Hartman, Sheri; Patterson, Ruth E; Parker, Barbara A; Pierce, John P

2016-08-01

Excess weight and physical inactivity are modifiable risk factors for breast cancer. Behavioral intervention is particularly important among women with an elevated risk profile. This trial tested an intervention that trained women to use a self-monitoring website to increase activity and lose weight. Women with BMI ≥27.5 kg/m(2) at elevated breast cancer risk were randomized to the intervention (N = 71) or usual care (N = 34). The intervention group received telephone-based coaching and used web-based self-monitoring tools. At 6 months, significant weight loss was observed in the intervention group (4.7 % loss from starting weight; SD = 4.7 %) relative to usual care (0.4 % gain; SD = 3.0 %) (p web- and phone-based approach produced modest but significant improvements in weight and physical activity for women at elevated breast cancer risk.

Deciding for Others Reduces Loss Aversion

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersson, Ola; Holm, Håkan J.; Tyran, Jean-Robert Karl

2016-01-01

We study risk taking on behalf of others, both when choices involve losses and when they do not. A large-scale incentivized experiment with subjects randomly drawn from the Danish population is conducted. We find that deciding for others reduces loss aversion. When choosing between risky prospects...... when losses loom. This finding is consistent with an interpretation of loss aversion as a bias in decision making driven by emotions and that these emotions are reduced when making decisions for others....... for which losses are ruled out by design, subjects make the same choices for themselves as for others. In contrast, when losses are possible, we find that the two types of choices differ. In particular, we find that subjects who make choices for themselves take less risk than those who decide for others...

Estimating surface soil erosion losses and mapping erosion risk for Yusufeli micro-catchment (Artvin

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mustafa Tüfekçioğlu

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Sheet erosion, one of the most important types of water erosion, takes place on the top soil as tiny soil layer movement that affects lake and stream ecosystem. This type of erosion is very important because the productive soil layer on the top soil can be lost in a very short period of time. The goal of this study was to quantify the amount of surface (sheet and rill soil erosion, and to identify areas under high erosion risk within the study area at Yusufeli province in Artvin by using RUSLE erosion methodology. As a result of the study it was found that the average annual potential soil loss by surface erosion was 3.6 ton ha-1yr-1. Additionally, the maps produced and conclusions reached by the study revealed that the areas of high erosion risk were identified spatially and measures to control erosion on some of these high risk areas can be possible with appropriate erosion control techniques.

Do you want the good news or the bad news? Gain- versus loss-framed messages following health risk information: The effects on leisure time physical activity beliefs and cognitions.

Science.gov (United States)

Bassett-Gunter, Rebecca L; Martin Ginis, Kathleen A; Latimer-Cheung, Amy E

2013-12-01

The primary purpose was to examine the relative effectiveness of chronic disease and psychological health risk information combined with gain- versus loss-framed leisure time physical activity (LTPA) messages for changing perceived personal risk, LTPA response efficacy (i.e., the belief that LTPA can effectively reduce risk), and LTPA intentions. A secondary purpose was to explore the relationship between message framing and cognitive processing. Baseline assessments of perceived risk for inactivity-related disease and psychological health problems, LTPA response efficacy, and intentions were measured among 96 individuals with spinal cord injury (SCI). Participants read population-specific information about the risk for inactivity-related disease and psychological health problems following SCI, and perceived risk was reassessed. Participants were then randomized to read LTPA response efficacy messages emphasizing the benefits of LTPA (gain framed) or the risks of inactivity (loss framed). Immediately following message exposure, cognitive processing (i.e., thought listing and message recall), LTPA response efficacy, and LTPA intentions were assessed. Changes in perceived risk were observed following exposure to health risk information. Changes in LTPA response efficacy and intentions were greater following loss-framed messages targeting psychological health compared with gain-framed messages. Greater cognitive processing was observed following loss-framed messages compared with gain-framed messages. Following exposure to psychological health risk information, loss-framed messages may be more effective than gain-framed messages for eliciting cognitive processing and changing LTPA beliefs and intentions.

Risk factors associated with loss to follow-up from tuberculosis treatment in Tajikistan: A case-control study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

J. Wohlleben (Jessica); M. Makhmudova (Mavluda); F. Saidova (Firuza); S. Azamova (Shahnoza); C. Mergenthaler (Christina); S. Verver (Suzanne)

2017-01-01

markdownabstract_Background:_ There are very few studies on reasons for loss to follow-up from TB treatment in Central Asia. This study assessed risk factors for LTFU and compared their occurrence with successfully treated (ST) patients in Tajikistan. _Methods:_ This study took place in all TB

Nutrient additions to a tropical rain forest drive substantial soil carbon dioxide losses to the atmosphere

OpenAIRE

Cleveland, Cory C.; Townsend, Alan R.

2006-01-01

Terrestrial biosphere–atmosphere carbon dioxide (CO2) exchange is dominated by tropical forests, where photosynthetic carbon (C) uptake is thought to be phosphorus (P)-limited. In P-poor tropical forests, P may also limit organic matter decomposition and soil C losses. We conducted a field-fertilization experiment to show that P fertilization stimulates soil respiration in a lowland tropical rain forest in Costa Rica. In the early wet season, when soluble organic matter inputs to soil are hig...

Multiperiod Maximum Loss is time unit invariant.

Science.gov (United States)

Kovacevic, Raimund M; Breuer, Thomas

2016-01-01

Time unit invariance is introduced as an additional requirement for multiperiod risk measures: for a constant portfolio under an i.i.d. risk factor process, the multiperiod risk should equal the one period risk of the aggregated loss, for an appropriate choice of parameters and independent of the portfolio and its distribution. Multiperiod Maximum Loss over a sequence of Kullback-Leibler balls is time unit invariant. This is also the case for the entropic risk measure. On the other hand, multiperiod Value at Risk and multiperiod Expected Shortfall are not time unit invariant.

20 CFR 404.1675 - Finding of substantial failure.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... 20 Employees' Benefits 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Finding of substantial failure. 404.1675... DISABILITY INSURANCE (1950- ) Determinations of Disability Substantial Failure § 404.1675 Finding of substantial failure. A finding of substantial failure with respect to a State may not be made unless and until...

Mechanical loss in tantala/silica dielectric mirror coatings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Penn, Steven D; Sneddon, Peter H; Armandula, Helena; Betzwieser, Joseph C; Cagnoli, Gianpietro; Camp, Jordan; Crooks, D R M; Fejer, Martin M; Gretarsson, Andri M; Harry, Gregory M; Hough, Jim; Kittelberger, Scott E; Mortonson, Michael J; Route, Roger; Rowan, Sheila; Vassiliou, Christophoros C

2003-01-01

Current interferometric gravitational wave detectors use test masses with mirror coatings formed from multiple layers of dielectric materials, most commonly alternating layers of SiO 2 (silica) and Ta 2 O 5 (tantala). However, mechanical loss in the Ta 2 O 5 /SiO 2 coatings may limit the design sensitivity for advanced detectors. We have investigated sources of mechanical loss in the Ta 2 O 5 /SiO 2 coatings, including loss associated with the coating-substrate interface, with the coating-layer interfaces and with the coating materials. Our results indicate that the loss is associated with the coating materials and that the loss of Ta 2 O 5 is substantially larger than that of SiO 2

20 CFR 416.1075 - Finding of substantial failure.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... 20 Employees' Benefits 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Finding of substantial failure. 416.1075... AGED, BLIND, AND DISABLED Determinations of Disability Substantial Failure § 416.1075 Finding of substantial failure. A finding of substantial failure with respect to a State may not be made unless and until...

Area of hock hair loss in dairy cows: risk factors and correlation with a categorical scale.

Science.gov (United States)

Lim, P Y; Huxley, J N; Green, M J; Othman, A R; Potterton, S L; Brignell, C J; Kaler, J

2015-02-01

Data from 3691 dairy cows from 76 farms were used to investigate the risk factors associated with the area of hair loss over the lateral aspect of the hock and the correlation between the area of hair loss (as calculated using a hock map) and hock lesion scores determined using a pre-existing categorical scale. Six factors were associated with a greater area of hair loss, including cows with locomotion score 3, a cleanliness score (10/28 to 18/28), high daily milk yield (25.1-58.1 kg), poor body condition score (1-1.5), duration of winter housing (≥41 days) and some combinations of cubicle base and bedding materials. Compared with cows housed in cubicles with a concrete base and whole straw or rape straw bedding, cows housed in cubicles with concrete bases with sand or chopped straw bedding had smaller areas of hair loss and cows housed on a mattress base with whole straw or rape straw bedding had larger areas of hair loss. Area of hair loss, as measured on hock maps, was not significantly different between cows with score 1 (median 23.6 cm(2)) and score 2 (median 20.3 cm(2)) on the categorical scale for hock lesions. This suggests that the categorical scale was not reflecting the extent of hair loss and that hock maps are a good alternative for studying the dynamics of hock lesions over time. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Differences in Risk Aversion between Young and Older Adults.

Science.gov (United States)

Albert, Steven M; Duffy, John

2012-01-15

Research on decision-making strategies among younger and older adults suggests that older adults may be more risk averse than younger people in the case of potential losses. These results mostly come from experimental studies involving gambling paradigms. Since these paradigms involve substantial demands on memory and learning, differences in risk aversion or other features of decision-making attributed to age may in fact reflect age-related declines in cognitive abilities. In the current study, older and younger adults completed a simpler, paired lottery choice task used in the experimental economics literature to elicit risk aversion. A similar approach was used to elicit participants' discount rates. The older adult group was more risk averse than younger adults (p Risk aversion and implied discount rates were weakly correlated. It may be valuable to investigate developmental changes in neural correlates of decision-making across the lifespan.

CMPH: a multivariate phase-type aggregate loss distribution

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ren Jiandong

2017-12-01

Full Text Available We introduce a compound multivariate distribution designed for modeling insurance losses arising from different risk sources in insurance companies. The distribution is based on a discrete-time Markov Chain and generalizes the multivariate compound negative binomial distribution, which is widely used for modeling insurance losses.We derive fundamental properties of the distribution and discuss computational aspects facilitating calculations of risk measures of the aggregate loss, as well as allocations of the aggregate loss to individual types of risk sources. Explicit formulas for the joint moment generating function and the joint moments of different loss types are derived, and recursive formulas for calculating the joint distributions given. Several special cases of particular interest are analyzed. An illustrative numerical example is provided.

Analysis of risk factors for loss of lumbar lordosis in patients who had surgical treatment with segmental instrumentation for adolescent idiopathic scoliosis.

Science.gov (United States)

Trobisch, Per D; Samdani, Amer F; Betz, Randal R; Bastrom, Tracey; Pahys, Joshua M; Cahill, Patrick J

2013-06-01

Iatrogenic flattening of lumbar lordosis in patients with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) was a major downside of first generation instrumentation. Current instrumentation systems allow a three-dimensional scoliosis correction, but flattening of lumbar lordosis remains a significant problem which is associated with decreased health-related quality of life. This study sought to identify risk factors for loss of lumbar lordosis in patients who had surgical correction of AIS with the use of segmental instrumentation. Patients were included if they had surgical correction for AIS with segmental pedicle screw instrumentation Lenke type 1 or 2 and if they had a minimum follow-up of 24 months. Two groups were created, based on the average loss of lumbar lordosis. The two groups were then compared and multivariate analysis was performed to identify parameters that correlated to loss of lumbar lordosis. Four hundred and seventeen patients were analyzed for this study. The average loss of lumbar lordosis at 24 months follow-up was an increase of 10° lordosis for group 1 and a decrease of 15° for group 2. Risk factors for loss of lumbar lordosis included a high preoperative lumbar lordosis, surgical decrease of thoracic kyphosis, and the particular operating surgeon. The lowest instrumented vertebra or spinopelvic parameters were two of many parameters that did not seem to influence loss of lumbar lordosis. This study identified important risk factors for decrease of lumbar lordosis in patients who had surgical treatment for AIS with segmental pedicle screw instrumentation, including a high preoperative lumbar lordosis, surgical decrease of thoracic kyphosis, and factors attributable to a particular operating surgeon that were not quantified in this study.

Decisions under unpredictable losses

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ali Ahmed

2007-10-01

Full Text Available An experimental test of the descriptive adequacy of the extit{restated diversification principle} is presented. The principle postulates that risk-averse utility maximizers will pool risks for their mutual benefit, even if information is missing about the probabilities of losses. It is enough for people to assume that they face equal risks when they pool risks. The results of the experiment support the principle.

Loss aversion and 5HTT gene variants in adolescent anxiety

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Monique Ernst

2014-04-01

Full Text Available Loss aversion, a well-documented behavioral phenomenon, characterizes decisions under risk in adult populations. As such, loss aversion may provide a reliable measure of risky behavior. Surprisingly, little is known about loss aversion in adolescents, a group who manifests risk-taking behavior, or in anxiety disorders, which are associated with risk-avoidance. Finally, loss aversion is expected to be modulated by genotype, particularly the serotonin transporter (SERT gene variant, based on its role in anxiety and impulsivity. This genetic modulation may also differ between anxious and healthy adolescents, given their distinct propensities for risk taking. The present work examines the modulation of loss aversion, an index of risk-taking, and reaction-time to decision, an index of impulsivity, by the serotonin-transporter-gene-linked polymorphisms (5HTTLPR in healthy and clinically anxious adolescents. Findings show that loss aversion (1 does manifest in adolescents, (2 does not differ between healthy and clinically anxious participants, and (3, when stratified by SERT genotype, identifies a subset of anxious adolescents who are high SERT-expressers, and show excessively low loss-aversion and high impulsivity. This last finding may serve as preliminary evidence for 5HTTLPR as a risk factor for the development of comorbid disorders associated with risk-taking and impulsivity in clinically anxious adolescents.

Nutrient additions to a tropical rain forest drive substantial soil carbon dioxide losses to the atmosphere.

Science.gov (United States)

Cleveland, Cory C; Townsend, Alan R

2006-07-05

Terrestrial biosphere-atmosphere carbon dioxide (CO(2)) exchange is dominated by tropical forests, where photosynthetic carbon (C) uptake is thought to be phosphorus (P)-limited. In P-poor tropical forests, P may also limit organic matter decomposition and soil C losses. We conducted a field-fertilization experiment to show that P fertilization stimulates soil respiration in a lowland tropical rain forest in Costa Rica. In the early wet season, when soluble organic matter inputs to soil are high, P fertilization drove large increases in soil respiration. Although the P-stimulated increase in soil respiration was largely confined to the dry-to-wet season transition, the seasonal increase was sufficient to drive an 18% annual increase in CO(2) efflux from the P-fertilized plots. Nitrogen (N) fertilization caused similar responses, and the net increases in soil respiration in response to the additions of N and P approached annual soil C fluxes in mid-latitude forests. Human activities are altering natural patterns of tropical soil N and P availability by land conversion and enhanced atmospheric deposition. Although our data suggest that the mechanisms driving the observed respiratory responses to increased N and P may be different, the large CO(2) losses stimulated by N and P fertilization suggest that knowledge of such patterns and their effects on soil CO(2) efflux is critical for understanding the role of tropical forests in a rapidly changing global C cycle.

A global building inventory for earthquake loss estimation and risk management

Science.gov (United States)

Jaiswal, K.; Wald, D.; Porter, K.

2010-01-01

We develop a global database of building inventories using taxonomy of global building types for use in near-real-time post-earthquake loss estimation and pre-earthquake risk analysis, for the U.S. Geological Survey's Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) program. The database is available for public use, subject to peer review, scrutiny, and open enhancement. On a country-by-country level, it contains estimates of the distribution of building types categorized by material, lateral force resisting system, and occupancy type (residential or nonresidential, urban or rural). The database draws on and harmonizes numerous sources: (1) UN statistics, (2) UN Habitat's demographic and health survey (DHS) database, (3) national housing censuses, (4) the World Housing Encyclopedia and (5) other literature. ?? 2010, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

Pregnancy Loss and Miscarriage

Science.gov (United States)

... Bulletins-Gynecology/Early-Pregnancy-Loss What are common symptoms? Causes and Risks How is it diagnosed? Is there a way to prevent? Related A-Z Topics High-Risk Pregnancy Polycystic Ovary Syndrome (PCOS) Stillbirth NICHD News Spotlights Release: Anti-HIV ...

Value at risk (VaR in uncertainty: Analysis with parametric method and black & scholes simulations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Humberto Banda Ortiz

2014-07-01

Full Text Available VaR is the most accepted risk measure worldwide and the leading reference in any risk management assessment. However, its methodology has important limitations which makes it unreliable in contexts of crisis or high uncertainty. For this reason, the aim of this work is to test the VaR accuracy when is employed in contexts of volatility, for which we compare the VaR outcomes in scenarios of both stability and uncertainty, using the parametric method and a historical simulation based on data generated with the Black & Scholes model. VaR main objective is the prediction of the highest expected loss for any given portfolio, but even when it is considered a useful tool for risk management under conditions of markets stability, we found that it is substantially inaccurate in contexts of crisis or high uncertainty. In addition, we found that the Black & Scholes simulations lead to underestimate the expected losses, in comparison with the parametric method and we also found that those disparities increase substantially in times of crisis. In the first section of this work we present a brief context of risk management in finance. In section II we present the existent literature relative to the VaR concept, its methods and applications. In section III we describe the methodology and assumptions used in this work. Section IV is dedicated to expose the findings. And finally, in Section V we present our conclusions.

Job loss and broken partnerships

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kriegbaum, Margit; Christensen, Ulla; Lund, Rikke

2008-01-01

The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of the accumulated number of job losses and broken partnerships (defined as the end of cohabitation) on the risk of fatal and nonfatal events of ischemic heart disease (IHD).......The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of the accumulated number of job losses and broken partnerships (defined as the end of cohabitation) on the risk of fatal and nonfatal events of ischemic heart disease (IHD)....

26 CFR 1.865-2 - Loss with respect to stock.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... principal purpose of holding the N stock without significant risk of loss until the recapture period expired... of enabling P to hold the N stock without significant risk of loss. Accordingly, under paragraph (b... diminishes P's risk of loss with respect to the F stock (and vice versa). P holds N and F with a principal...

The risk of fetal loss associated with invasive testing following combined first trimester risk screening for Down syndrome - a national cohort of 147 987 singleton pregnancies

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wulff, Camilla Bernt; Gerds, Thomas Alexander; Rode, Line

2016-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To assess prospectively the risk of fetal loss associated with chorionic villus sampling (CVS) and amniocentesis (AC) following combined first-trimester screening (cFTS) for Down syndrome. METHODS: This was a nationwide population-based study (Danish Fetal Medicine Database, 2008...

Prenatal malnutrition and subsequent foetal loss risk: Evidence from the 1959-1961 Chinese famine

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shige Song

2013-10-01

Full Text Available Background: Scientists disagree on whether prenatal malnutrition has long-term influences on women's reproductive function, and empirical evidence of such long-term effects remains limited and inconsistent. Methods: Using the retrospective pregnancy history of 12,567 Chinese women collected in a nationally representative sample survey in 2001, this study conducted difference-in-differences analyses to investigate the relationship between prenatal exposure to the 1959-1961 Great Leap Forward Famine in China and the subsequent risk of involuntary foetal loss, including miscarriage and stillbirth, and how this relationship changes between the rural and urban populations. Results: Prenatal exposure to the Great Leap Forward Famine had no long-term effect on women's risk of miscarriage. Such an exposure increased the risk of stillbirth among urban women but not among rural women. Conclusions: The results support the foetal origins hypothesis. The significant urban-rural difference in the effect of prenatal famine exposure on stillbirth suggests the presence of a long-term negative foetal origins effect and a strong selection effect caused by famine-induced population attrition.

Decision Making in the Balloon Analogue Risk Task (BART): Anterior Cingulate Cortex Signals Loss-Aversion but not the Infrequency of Risky Choices

Science.gov (United States)

Fukunaga, Rena; Brown, Joshua W.; Bogg, Tim

2012-01-01

The inferior frontal gyrus/anterior insula (IFG/AI) and anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) are key regions involved in risk appraisal during decision making, but accounts of how these regions contribute to decision-making under risk remain contested. To help clarify the roles of these and other related regions, we used a modified version of the Balloon Analogue Risk Task (Lejuez et al., 2002) to distinguish between decision-making and feedback-related processes when participants decided to pursue a gain as the probability of loss increased parametrically. Specifically, we set out to test whether ACC and IFG/AI regions correspond to loss-aversion at the time of decision making in a way that is not confounded with either reward-seeking or infrequency effects. When participants chose to discontinue inflating the balloon (win option), we observed greater ACC and mainly bilateral IFG/AI activity at the time of decision as the probability of explosion increased, consistent with increased loss-aversion but inconsistent with an infrequency effect. In contrast, we found robust vmPFC activity when participants chose to continue inflating the balloon (risky option), consistent with reward-seeking. However, in the cingulate and mainly bilateral IFG regions, BOLD activation decreased when participants chose to inflate the balloon as the probability of explosion increased, findings consistent with a reduced loss-aversion signal. Our results highlight the existence of distinct reward-seeking and loss-averse signals during decision-making, as well as the importance of distinguishing decision and feedback signals. PMID:22707378

Decision making in the Balloon Analogue Risk Task (BART): anterior cingulate cortex signals loss aversion but not the infrequency of risky choices.

Science.gov (United States)

Fukunaga, Rena; Brown, Joshua W; Bogg, Tim

2012-09-01

The inferior frontal gyrus/anterior insula (IFG/AI) and anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) are key regions involved in risk appraisal during decision making, but accounts of how these regions contribute to decision making under risk remain contested. To help clarify the roles of these and other related regions, we used a modified version of the Balloon Analogue Risk Task (Lejuez et al., Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied, 8, 75-84, 2002) to distinguish between decision-making and feedback-related processes when participants decided to pursue a gain as the probability of loss increased parametrically. Specifically, we set out to test whether the ACC and IFG/AI regions correspond to loss aversion at the time of decision making in a way that is not confounded with either reward-seeking or infrequency effects. When participants chose to discontinue inflating the balloon (win option), we observed greater ACC and mainly bilateral IFG/AI activity at the time of decision as the probability of explosion increased, consistent with increased loss aversion but inconsistent with an infrequency effect. In contrast, we found robust vmPFC activity when participants chose to continue inflating the balloon (risky option), consistent with reward seeking. However, in the cingulate and in mainly bilateral IFG regions, blood-oxygenation-level-dependent activation decreased when participants chose to inflate the balloon as the probability of explosion increased, findings that are consistent with a reduced loss aversion signal. Our results highlight the existence of distinct reward-seeking and loss-averse signals during decision making, as well as the importance of distinguishing between decision and feedback signals.

Applying the Land Use Portfolio Model to Estimate Natural-Hazard Loss and Risk - A Hypothetical Demonstration for Ventura County, California

Science.gov (United States)

Dinitz, Laura B.

2008-01-01

With costs of natural disasters skyrocketing and populations increasingly settling in areas vulnerable to natural hazards, society is challenged to better allocate its limited risk-reduction resources. In 2000, Congress passed the Disaster Mitigation Act, amending the Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act (Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act, Pub. L. 93-288, 1988; Federal Emergency Management Agency, 2002, 2008b; Disaster Mitigation Act, 2000), mandating that State, local, and tribal communities prepare natural-hazard mitigation plans to qualify for pre-disaster mitigation grants and post-disaster aid. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) was assigned to coordinate and implement hazard-mitigation programs, and it published information about specific mitigation-plan requirements and the mechanisms (through the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program-HMGP) for distributing funds (Federal Emergency Management Agency, 2002). FEMA requires that each community develop a mitigation strategy outlining long-term goals to reduce natural-hazard vulnerability, mitigation objectives and specific actions to reduce the impacts of natural hazards, and an implementation plan for those actions. The implementation plan should explain methods for prioritizing, implementing, and administering the actions, along with a 'cost-benefit review' justifying the prioritization. FEMA, along with the National Institute of Building Sciences (NIBS), supported the development of HAZUS ('Hazards U.S.'), a geospatial natural-hazards loss-estimation tool, to help communities quantify potential losses and to aid in the selection and prioritization of mitigation actions. HAZUS was expanded to a multiple-hazard version, HAZUS-MH, that combines population, building, and natural-hazard science and economic data and models to estimate physical damages, replacement costs, and business interruption for specific natural-hazard scenarios. HAZUS

Loss of migratory behaviour increases infection risk for a butterfly host

Science.gov (United States)

Satterfield, Dara A.; Maerz, John C.; Altizer, Sonia

2015-01-01

Long-distance animal migrations have important consequences for infectious disease dynamics. In some cases, migration lowers pathogen transmission by removing infected individuals during strenuous journeys and allowing animals to periodically escape contaminated habitats. Human activities are now causing some migratory animals to travel shorter distances or form sedentary (non-migratory) populations. We focused on North American monarch butterflies and a specialist protozoan parasite to investigate how the loss of migratory behaviours affects pathogen spread and evolution. Each autumn, monarchs migrate from breeding grounds in the eastern US and Canada to wintering sites in central Mexico. However, some monarchs have become non-migratory and breed year-round on exotic milkweed in the southern US. We used field sampling, citizen science data and experimental inoculations to quantify infection prevalence and parasite virulence among migratory and sedentary populations. Infection prevalence was markedly higher among sedentary monarchs compared with migratory monarchs, indicating that diminished migration increases infection risk. Virulence differed among parasite strains but was similar between migratory and sedentary populations, potentially owing to high gene flow or insufficient time for evolutionary divergence. More broadly, our findings suggest that human activities that alter animal migrations can influence pathogen dynamics, with implications for wildlife conservation and future disease risks. PMID:25589600

Interaction between diabetes mellitus and hypertension on risk of hearing loss in highly endogamous population.

Science.gov (United States)

Bener, Abdulbari; Al-Hamaq, Abdulla O A A; Abdulhadi, Khalid; Salahaldin, Ahmed H; Gansan, Loida

2017-11-01

The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence of hearing loss and its association with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in a highly endogamous population. This is a cross-sectional study. The present study is carried out in Ear Nose Throat (ENT) and Endocrinology outpatient clinics of the Hamad General and Rumeilah Hospitals, Hamad Medical Corporation. All subjects aged between 20 and 59 years who visited the Endocrinology and ENT outpatient clinics of the Hamad Medical Corporation with hearing difficulty were included in this study during the period from January 2013 to July 2014. During the study period, prevalence, hearing, audiological test, family history and medical problems associated with hearing impairment in middle aged patients were recorded. Two audiometers Grason Stadler GSI 61 and Madsen Orbiter 922 were used to evaluate the hearing loss. Majority of the hearing loss observed at the age above 45 years old, (44.8% vs 51.7%, p=0.05). The prevalence of hearing impairment was higher in Qataris than in non-Qataris (59.7% vs 46.6%, pdiabetes onset duration (7.8±4.12years), sleeping disorder (5.81±1.29h), obese subjects (38% vs 27.4%); family history of diabetes (30.6 vs 23.1%) were higher among hearing impairment. The associated risk factors were significantly higher in T2DM with hearing loss, hypoglycemia (32.8% vs 27.4%), retinopathy (313% vs 18.5%), Nephropathy (17.9% vs 9.8%), Neuropathy (17.9% vs 10.2%), macro-vascular disease (11.9% vs 6.2%), diabetic foot ulcer (20.9% vs 12.6%), Tinnitus (68.7% vs 51.3%), and Vertigo (25.4% vs 16.9%) than in normal hearing diabetes. There was a statistically significant differences between hearing impairment and normal hearing among T2DM regarding hearing assessment frequency (p=0.041). There were statistically significant differences between hearing impairment versus normal hearing for vitamin D [18.91±7.65ng/mL vs 22.85±9.00ng/mL; pdiabetic patients. The current study results confirm previous reports

Diet-Induced Weight Loss Reduces DNA Damage and Cardiometabolic Risk Factors in Overweight/Obese Women with Polycystic Ovary Syndrome.

Science.gov (United States)

Soares, Nayara Pereira; Santos, Ana Celly Souza dos; Costa, Eduardo Caldas; Azevedo, George Dantas; Damasceno, Débora Cristina; Fayh, Ana Paula Trussardi; Lemos, Telma Maria Araújo Moura

2016-01-01

We aimed to investigate the impact of following a diet to induce weight loss (500 kcal deficit per day) over DNA damage and cardiometabolic risk factors in women with overweight/obesity diagnosed with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS). A study was conducted in Natal, RN, Brazil selecting overweight/obese (body mass index ≥25 and weight loss, decreased sexual hormone and cardiometabolic markers such as insulin, homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol were verified In the multivariate regression analysis, quantitative insulin sensitivity check index and progesterone were responsible for the variation markers in DNA damage before the diet, losing its influence upon diet. DNA damage and the impact of cardiometabolic risk factors decreased after the intervention in women with PCOS, indicating the relevance of a nutritional approach in this group of patients. © 2016 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Insurance loss coverage under restricted risk classification

OpenAIRE

Hao, Mingjie; Radfall Charitable Trust

2017-01-01

Insurers hope to make profit through pooling policies from a large number of individuals. Unless the risk in question is similar for all potential customers, an insurer is exposed to the possibility of adverse selection by attracting only high-risk individuals. To counter this, insurers have traditionally employed underwriting principles, identifying suitable risk factors to subdivide their potential customers into homogeneous risk groups, based on which risk-related premiums can be charged. ...

Weight loss, Mortality and associated potentially modifiable nutritional risk factors among nursing home residents

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Beck, Anne Marie

2015-01-01

Objectives The objective of this follow-up study is to assess the association between different potentially modifiable nutritional risk factors; weight loss after six and 12 months and mortality. Design and setting A one year follow-up project among Danish nursing home residents. Participants...... A total of 441 nursing home resident living in 11 nursing homes. Measurements Odds ratio was calculated and used to assess the strength of association between different potentially modifiable nutritional risk factors and nutritional status of the participants. The difference in mortality between those who...... at most meals, chewing and swallowing problems. The prevalence of eating dependency; leaves 25% or more of food uneaten at most meals; swallowing problems and enteral nutrition were higher among those who died than among survivors. Conclusion A high percentage of old nursing home residents suffer from...

Loss aversion and 5HTT gene variants in adolescent anxiety.

Science.gov (United States)

Ernst, Monique; Plate, Rista C; Carlisi, Christina O; Gorodetsky, Elena; Goldman, David; Pine, Daniel S

2014-04-01

Loss aversion, a well-documented behavioral phenomenon, characterizes decisions under risk in adult populations. As such, loss aversion may provide a reliable measure of risky behavior. Surprisingly, little is known about loss aversion in adolescents, a group who manifests risk-taking behavior, or in anxiety disorders, which are associated with risk-avoidance. Finally, loss aversion is expected to be modulated by genotype, particularly the serotonin transporter (SERT) gene variant, based on its role in anxiety and impulsivity. This genetic modulation may also differ between anxious and healthy adolescents, given their distinct propensities for risk taking. The present work examines the modulation of loss aversion, an index of risk-taking, and reaction-time to decision, an index of impulsivity, by the serotonin-transporter-gene-linked polymorphisms (5HTTLPR) in healthy and clinically anxious adolescents. Findings show that loss aversion (1) does manifest in adolescents, (2) does not differ between healthy and clinically anxious participants, and (3), when stratified by SERT genotype, identifies a subset of anxious adolescents who are high SERT-expressers, and show excessively low loss-aversion and high impulsivity. This last finding may serve as preliminary evidence for 5HTTLPR as a risk factor for the development of comorbid disorders associated with risk-taking and impulsivity in clinically anxious adolescents. Copyright © 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Incidence, risk factors, and clinical characteristics of unexplained visual loss after intraocular silicone oil for macula-on retinal detachment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Scheerlinck, Laura M.; Schellekens, Peter A.; Liem, Albert T.; Steijns, Daan; van Leeuwen, R

2016-01-01

Purpose: To investigate the incidence, risk factors, and clinical characteristics of unexplained visual loss after macula-on rhegmatogenous retinal detachment (RRD). Methods: Retrospective cohort of patients with primary macula-on rhegmatogenous retinal detachment treated by vitrectomy with gas or

Divorce and women's risk of health insurance loss.

Science.gov (United States)

Lavelle, Bridget; Smock, Pamela J

2012-01-01

This article bridges the literatures on the economic consequences of divorce for women with that on marital transitions and health by focusing on women's health insurance. Using a monthly calendar of marital status and health insurance coverage from 1,442 women in the Survey of Income and Program Participation, we examine how women's health insurance changes after divorce. Our estimates suggest that roughly 115,000 American women lose private health insurance annually in the months following divorce and that roughly 65,000 of these women become uninsured. The loss of insurance coverage we observe is not just a short-term disruption. Women's rates of insurance coverage remain depressed for more than two years after divorce. Insurance loss may compound the economic losses women experience after divorce and contribute to as well as compound previously documented health declines following divorce.

DIVORCE AND WOMEN'S RISK OF HEALTH INSURANCE LOSS*

Science.gov (United States)

Lavelle, Bridget; Smock, Pamela J.

2012-01-01

This article bridges the literatures on the economic consequences of divorce for women with that on marital transitions and health by focusing on women's health insurance. Using a monthly calendar of marital status and health insurance coverage from 1,442 women in the Survey of Income and Program Participation, we examine how women's health insurance changes after divorce. Our estimates suggest that roughly 115,000 American women lose private health insurance annually in the months following divorce and that roughly 65,000 of these women become uninsured. The loss of insurance coverage we observe is not just a short-term disruption. Women's rates of insurance coverage remain depressed for more than two years after divorce. Insurance loss may compound the economic losses women experience after divorce, and contribute to as well as compound previously documented health declines following divorce. PMID:23147653

20 CFR 604.6 - Conformity and substantial compliance.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... 20 Employees' Benefits 3 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Conformity and substantial compliance. 604.6... FOR ELIGIBILITY FOR UNEMPLOYMENT COMPENSATION § 604.6 Conformity and substantial compliance. (a) In... for the administration of its UC program. (b) Resolving Issues of Conformity and Substantial...

Genetic Causes of Recurrent Pregnancy Loss.

Science.gov (United States)

Page, Jessica M; Silver, Robert M

2016-09-01

Pregnancy loss is one of the most common obstetric complications, affecting over 30% of conceptions. A considerable proportion of losses are due to genetic abnormalities. Indeed, over 50% of early pregnancy losses have been associated with chromosomal abnormalities. Most are due to de novo nondisjunctional events but balanced parental translocations are responsible for a small but important percentage of genetic abnormalities in couples with recurrent pregnancy loss. In the past, assessment of genetic abnormalities was limited to karyotype performed on placental or fetal tissue. However, advances in molecular genetic technology now provide rich genetic information about additional genetic causes of and risk factors for pregnancy loss. In addition, the use of preimplantation genetic testing in couples undergoing in vitro fertilization has the potential to decrease the risk of pregnancy loss from genetic abnormalities. To date, efficacy is uncertain but considerable potential remains. This chapter will review what is known about genetic causes of recurrent pregnancy loss with a focus on novel causes and potential treatments. Remaining knowledge gaps will be highlighted.

A High-Carbohydrate, High-Fiber, Low-Fat Diet Results in Weight Loss among Adults at High Risk of Type 2 Diabetes.

Science.gov (United States)

Sylvetsky, Allison C; Edelstein, Sharon L; Walford, Geoffrey; Boyko, Edward J; Horton, Edward S; Ibebuogu, Uzoma N; Knowler, William C; Montez, Maria G; Temprosa, Marinella; Hoskin, Mary; Rother, Kristina I; Delahanty, Linda M

2017-11-01

Background: Weight loss is a key factor in reducing diabetes risk. The Diabetes Prevention Program (DPP) is a completed clinical trial that randomly assigned individuals at high risk of diabetes to a placebo (PLBO), metformin (MET), or intensive lifestyle intervention (ILS) group, which included physical activity (PA) and reduced dietary fat intake. Objective: We aimed to evaluate the associations between diet and weight at baseline and to identify specific dietary factors that predicted weight loss among DPP participants. Methods: Diet was assessed by a food frequency questionnaire. The associations between intakes of macronutrients and various food groups and body weight among DPP participants at baseline were assessed by linear regression, adjusted for race/ethnicity, age, sex, calorie intake, and PA. Models that predicted weight loss at year 1 were adjusted for baseline weight, change in calorie intake, and change in PA and stratified by treatment allocation (MET, ILS, and PLBO). All results are presented as estimates ± SEs. Results: A total of 3234 participants were enrolled in the DPP; 2924 had completed dietary data (67.5% women; mean age: 50.6 ± 10.7 y). Adjusted for calorie intake, baseline weight was negatively associated with carbohydrate intake (-1.14 ± 0.18 kg body weight/100 kcal carbohydrate, P fat (1.25 ± 0.21 kg/100 kcal, P fat (1.96 ± 0.46 kg/100 kcal, P loss after 1 y was associated with increases in carbohydrate intake, specifically dietary fiber, and decreases in total fat and saturated fat intake. Conclusions: Higher carbohydrate consumption among DPP participants, specifically high-fiber carbohydrates, and lower total and saturated fat intake best predicted weight loss when adjusted for changes in calorie intake. Our results support the benefits of a high-carbohydrate, high-fiber, low-fat diet in the context of overall calorie reduction leading to weight loss, which may prevent diabetes in high-risk individuals. This trial was registered

Integrated risk assessment for the natomas basin (California) analysis of loss of life and emergency management for floods

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jonkman, S.N.; Hiel, L.A.; Bea, R.G.; Foster, H.; Tsioulou, A.; Arroyo, P.; Stallard, T.; Harris, L.

2012-01-01

This article assesses the risk to life for the Natomas Basin, a low-lying, rapidly urbanizing region in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta in California. Using an empirical method, the loss of life is determined for a flood (high water), seismic, and sunny-day levee breach scenario. The analysis

19 CFR 10.7 - Substantial containers or holders.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... 19 Customs Duties 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Substantial containers or holders. 10.7 Section 10... Exported and Returned § 10.7 Substantial containers or holders. (a) Substantial containers or holders... domestic products exported and returned. When such containers or holders are imported not containing or...

Heterogeneity of Loss Aversion in Pathological Gambling.

Science.gov (United States)

Takeuchi, Hideaki; Kawada, Ryosaku; Tsurumi, Kosuke; Yokoyama, Naoto; Takemura, Ariyoshi; Murao, Takuro; Murai, Toshiya; Takahashi, Hidehiko

2016-12-01

Pathological gambling (PG) is characterized by continual repeated gambling behavior despite negative consequences. PG is considered to be a disorder of altered decision-making under risk, and behavioral economics tools were utilized by studies on decision-making under risk. At the same time, PG was suggested to be a heterogeneous disorder in terms of personality traits as well as risk attitude. We aimed to examine the heterogeneity of PG in terms of loss aversion, which means that a loss is subjectively felt to be larger than the same amount of gain. Thirty-one male PG subjects and 26 male healthy control (HC) subjects underwent a behavioral economics task for estimation of loss aversion and personality traits assessment. Although loss aversion in PG subjects was not significantly different from that in HC subjects, distributions of loss aversion differed between PG and HC subjects. HC subjects were uniformly classified into three levels (low, middle, high) of loss aversion, whereas PG subjects were mostly classified into the two extremes, and few PG subjects were classified into the middle range. PG subjects with low and high loss aversion showed a significant difference in anxiety, excitement-seeking and craving intensity. Our study suggested that PG was a heterogeneous disorder in terms of loss aversion. This result might be useful for understanding cognitive and neurobiological mechanisms and the establishment of treatment strategies for PG.

Maternal Use of Weight Loss Products and the Risk of Neural Tube Defects in Offspring: A Systematic Literature Review.

Science.gov (United States)

Hoang, Thanh T; Agopian, A J; Mitchell, Laura E

2018-01-15

Several studies have assessed potential associations between use of weight loss products in the periconceptional period and neural tube defects (NTDs). However, the individual studies are inconclusive and there has not been a systematic review of this literature. We conducted a systematic search, using Ovid MEDLINE and PubMed, to identify studies that evaluated the association between products used for weight loss and the risk of NTDs. Because many studies of birth defects only evaluate a composite birth defect outcome, we evaluated studies that defined the outcome as "any major birth defect" or as NTDs. We abstracted data on study design, exposure definition, outcome definition, covariates and effect size estimates from each article that met our inclusion criteria. For studies that evaluated a composite birth defect outcome, we also abstracted the number of NTD cases included in the composite outcome. We used a modified version of the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale to assess the quality of each article. We screened 865 citations and identified nine articles that met our inclusion criteria. The majority of studies reported positive associations between maternal use of weight loss products and birth defects (overall and NTDs). However, there were few significant associations and there was considerable heterogeneity in the specific exposures assessed across the nine studies. Our systematic review of weight loss products and NTDs indicates that the literature on this topic is sparse. Because several studies reported modest, positive associations between risk and use of weight loss products, additional studies are warranted. Birth Defects Research 110:48-55, 2018. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Elemental conservation units: communicating extinction risk without dictating targets for protection.

Science.gov (United States)

Wood, Chris C; Gross, Mart R

2008-02-01

Conservation biologists mostly agree on the need to identify and protect biodiversity below the species level but have not yet resolved the best approach. We addressed 2 issues relevant to this debate. First, we distinguished between the abstract goal of preserving the maximum amount of unique biodiversity and the pragmatic goal of minimizing the loss of ecological goods and services given that further loss of biodiversity seems inevitable. Second, we distinguished between the scientific task of assessing extinction risk and the normative task of choosing targets for protection. We propose that scientific advice on extinction risk be given at the smallest meaningful scale: the elemental conservation unit (ECU). An ECU is a demographically isolated population whose probability of extinction over the time scale of interest (say 100 years) is not substantially affected by natural immigration from other populations. Within this time frame, the loss of an ECU would be irreversible without human intervention. Society's decision to protect an ECU ought to reflect human values that have social, economic, and political dimensions. Scientists can best inform this decision by providing advice about the probability that an ECU will be lost and the ecological and evolutionary consequences of that loss in a form that can be integrated into landscape planning. The ECU approach provides maximum flexibility to decision makers and ensures that the scientific task of assessing extinction risk informs, but remains distinct from, the normative social challenge of setting conservation targets.

26 CFR 1.1233-1 - Gains and losses from short sales.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... makes a short sale of shares of stock and covers the short sale by purchasing and delivering shares...) Treatment of losses. The third rule, which is set forth in section 1233(d), is applicable whenever property... loss attributable to so much of the property sold short as exceeds in quantity the substantially...

Merging Cultural Heritage Assessments with Risk Reduction and Disaster Recovery

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bojsen, Ann Kristina Mikkelsen

heritage. These limitations serve as motivation for the introduction of the ACTOR framework (Assessing Cultural Threats, Obstacles and Resilience) ACTOR aims at merging cultural heritage assessments with risk reduction and disaster recovery, and provide disaster management students with a learning......Abstract There is a general professional consensus that vulnerability and risk assessments are crucial tasks in any serious attempt to substantially reduce disaster losses and enhance the reconciliation or recovery in the post event phase. However, cultural heritage is often considered...... as an overarching element that should be assessed, rather than a permanent key component of the assessments. Research in disaster management noticeably illustrates how cultural heritage is increasingly at risk from disasters caused by natural and human-made hazards, as well as the effects of climate change. Still...

Modelling the Frequency of Operational Risk Losses under the Basel II Capital Accord: A Comparative study of Poisson and Negative Binomial Distributions

OpenAIRE

Silver, Toni O.

2013-01-01

2013 dissertation for MSc in Finance and Risk Management. Selected by academic staff as a good example of a masters level dissertation. \\ud \\ud This study investigated the two major methods of modelling the frequency of\\ud operational losses under the BCBS Accord of 1998 known as Basel II Capital\\ud Accord. It compared the Poisson method of modelling the frequency of\\ud losses to that of the Negative Binomial. The frequency of operational losses\\ud was investigated using a cross section of se...

Loss-of-function of neuroplasticity-related genes confers risk for human neurodevelopmental disorders.

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Milo R; Glicksberg, Benjamin S; Li, Li; Chen, Rong; Morishita, Hirofumi; Dudley, Joel T

2018-01-01

High and increasing prevalence of neurodevelopmental disorders place enormous personal and economic burdens on society. Given the growing realization that the roots of neurodevelopmental disorders often lie in early childhood, there is an urgent need to identify childhood risk factors. Neurodevelopment is marked by periods of heightened experience-dependent neuroplasticity wherein neural circuitry is optimized by the environment. If these critical periods are disrupted, development of normal brain function can be permanently altered, leading to neurodevelopmental disorders. Here, we aim to systematically identify human variants in neuroplasticity-related genes that confer risk for neurodevelopmental disorders. Historically, this knowledge has been limited by a lack of techniques to identify genes related to neurodevelopmental plasticity in a high-throughput manner and a lack of methods to systematically identify mutations in these genes that confer risk for neurodevelopmental disorders. Using an integrative genomics approach, we determined loss-of-function (LOF) variants in putative plasticity genes, identified from transcriptional profiles of brain from mice with elevated plasticity, that were associated with neurodevelopmental disorders. From five shared differentially expressed genes found in two mouse models of juvenile-like elevated plasticity (juvenile wild-type or adult Lynx1-/- relative to adult wild-type) that were also genotyped in the Mount Sinai BioMe Biobank we identified multiple associations between LOF genes and increased risk for neurodevelopmental disorders across 10,510 patients linked to the Mount Sinai Electronic Medical Records (EMR), including epilepsy and schizophrenia. This work demonstrates a novel approach to identify neurodevelopmental risk genes and points toward a promising avenue to discover new drug targets to address the unmet therapeutic needs of neurodevelopmental disease.

Noise exposure and hearing conservation practices in an industry with high incidence of workers' compensation claims for hearing loss.

Science.gov (United States)

Daniell, William E; Swan, Susan S; McDaniel, Mary M; Stebbins, John G; Seixas, Noah S; Morgan, Michael S

2002-10-01

Washington State has experienced a striking increase in workers' compensation claims for hearing loss. This cross-sectional study examined noise exposures and hearing conservation practices in one industry with a high rate of hearing loss claims. We evaluated 10 representative foundries with personal noise dosimetry, management interviews, employee interviews, and existing audiometry. Noise levels routinely exceeded 85 dBA. All companies were out of compliance with hearing conservation regulations. Most employees with important findings on audiograms were not aware of their findings. There was a significant positive correlation between management-interview scores and worksite-average employee-interview scores (r = 0.70, P = 0.02). Companies where more effort is put into hearing conservation program activities can achieve a greater positive impact on employee awareness. However, there were broad deficiencies even in the better programs in this sample, suggesting that workers in this industry probably face a continuing substantial risk of occupational hearing loss. Copyright 2002 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Coping with Loss Aversion in the Newsvendor Model

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Jianwu Sun

2015-01-01

Full Text Available We introduce loss aversion into the decision framework of the newsvendor model. By introducing the loss aversion coefficient λ, we propose a novel utility function for the loss-averse newsvendor. First, we obtain the optimal order quantity to maximize the expected utility for the loss-averse newsvendor who is risk-neutral. It is found that this optimal order quantity is smaller than the expected profit maximization order quantity in the classical newsvendor model, which may help to explain the decision bias in the classical newsvendor model. Then, to reduce the risk which originates from the fluctuation in the market demand, we achieve the optimal order quantity to maximize CVaR about utility for the loss-averse newsvendor who is risk-averse. We find that this optimal order quantity is smaller than the optimal order quantity to maximize the expected utility above and is decreasing in the confidence level α. Further, it is proved that the expected utility under this optimal order quantity is decreasing in the confidence level α, which verifies that low risk implies low return. Finally, a numerical example is given to illustrate the obtained results and some management insights are suggested for the loss-averse newsvendor model.

Economic inequality predicts biodiversity loss.

Science.gov (United States)

Mikkelson, Gregory M; Gonzalez, Andrew; Peterson, Garry D

2007-05-16

Human activity is causing high rates of biodiversity loss. Yet, surprisingly little is known about the extent to which socioeconomic factors exacerbate or ameliorate our impacts on biological diversity. One such factor, economic inequality, has been shown to affect public health, and has been linked to environmental problems in general. We tested how strongly economic inequality is related to biodiversity loss in particular. We found that among countries, and among US states, the number of species that are threatened or declining increases substantially with the Gini ratio of income inequality. At both levels of analysis, the connection between income inequality and biodiversity loss persists after controlling for biophysical conditions, human population size, and per capita GDP or income. Future research should explore potential mechanisms behind this equality-biodiversity relationship. Our results suggest that economic reforms would go hand in hand with, if not serving as a prerequisite for, effective conservation.

Hearing loss among older construction workers: Updated analyses.

Science.gov (United States)

Dement, John; Welch, Laura S; Ringen, Knut; Cranford, Kim; Quinn, Patricia

2018-04-01

A prior study of this construction worker population found significant noise-associated hearing loss. This follow-up study included a much larger study population and consideration of additional risk factors. Data included audiometry, clinical chemistry, personal history, and work history. Qualitative exposure metrics for noise and solvents were developed. Analyses compared construction workers to an internal reference group with lower exposures and an external worker population with low noise exposure. Among participants (n = 19 127) an overall prevalence of hearing loss of 58% was observed, with significantly increased prevalence across all construction trades. Construction workers had significantly increased risk of hearing loss compared to reference populations, with increasing risk by work duration. Noise exposure, solvent exposure, hypertension, and smoking were significant risk factors in multivariate models. Results support a causal relationship between construction trades work and hearing loss. Prevention should focus on reducing exposure to noise, solvents, and cigarette smoke. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Reducing Risk of Noise-Induced Hearing Loss in Collegiate Music Ensembles Using Ambient Technology.

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Powell, Jason; Chesky, Kris

2017-09-01

Student musicians are at risk for noise-induced hearing loss (NIHL) as they develop skills and perform during instructional activities. Studies using longitudinal dosimeter data show that pedagogical procedures and instructor behaviors are highly predictive of NIHL risk, thus implying the need for innovative approaches to increase instructor competency in managing instructional activities without interfering with artistic and academic freedom. Ambient information systems, an emerging trend in human-computer interaction that infuses psychological behavioral theories into technologies, can help construct informative risk-regulating systems. The purpose of this study was to determine the effects of introducing an ambient information system into the ensemble setting. The system used two ambient displays and a counterbalanced within-subjects treatment study design with six jazz ensemble instructors to determine if the system could induce a behavior change that alters trends in measures resulting from dosimeter data. This study assessed efficacy using time series analysis to determine changes in eight statistical measures of behavior over a 9-wk period. Analysis showed that the system was effective, as all instructors showed changes in a combination of measures. This study is in an important step in developing non-interfering technology to reduce NIHL among academic musicians.

The loss of species: mangrove extinction risk and geographic areas of global concern.

Science.gov (United States)

Polidoro, Beth A; Carpenter, Kent E; Collins, Lorna; Duke, Norman C; Ellison, Aaron M; Ellison, Joanna C; Farnsworth, Elizabeth J; Fernando, Edwino S; Kathiresan, Kandasamy; Koedam, Nico E; Livingstone, Suzanne R; Miyagi, Toyohiko; Moore, Gregg E; Ngoc Nam, Vien; Ong, Jin Eong; Primavera, Jurgenne H; Salmo, Severino G; Sanciangco, Jonnell C; Sukardjo, Sukristijono; Wang, Yamin; Yong, Jean Wan Hong

2010-04-08

Mangrove species are uniquely adapted to tropical and subtropical coasts, and although relatively low in number of species, mangrove forests provide at least US $1.6 billion each year in ecosystem services and support coastal livelihoods worldwide. Globally, mangrove areas are declining rapidly as they are cleared for coastal development and aquaculture and logged for timber and fuel production. Little is known about the effects of mangrove area loss on individual mangrove species and local or regional populations. To address this gap, species-specific information on global distribution, population status, life history traits, and major threats were compiled for each of the 70 known species of mangroves. Each species' probability of extinction was assessed under the Categories and Criteria of the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. Eleven of the 70 mangrove species (16%) are at elevated threat of extinction. Particular areas of geographical concern include the Atlantic and Pacific coasts of Central America, where as many as 40% of mangroves species present are threatened with extinction. Across the globe, mangrove species found primarily in the high intertidal and upstream estuarine zones, which often have specific freshwater requirements and patchy distributions, are the most threatened because they are often the first cleared for development of aquaculture and agriculture. The loss of mangrove species will have devastating economic and environmental consequences for coastal communities, especially in those areas with low mangrove diversity and high mangrove area or species loss. Several species at high risk of extinction may disappear well before the next decade if existing protective measures are not enforced.

The loss of species: mangrove extinction risk and geographic areas of global concern.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Beth A Polidoro

2010-04-01

Full Text Available Mangrove species are uniquely adapted to tropical and subtropical coasts, and although relatively low in number of species, mangrove forests provide at least US $1.6 billion each year in ecosystem services and support coastal livelihoods worldwide. Globally, mangrove areas are declining rapidly as they are cleared for coastal development and aquaculture and logged for timber and fuel production. Little is known about the effects of mangrove area loss on individual mangrove species and local or regional populations. To address this gap, species-specific information on global distribution, population status, life history traits, and major threats were compiled for each of the 70 known species of mangroves. Each species' probability of extinction was assessed under the Categories and Criteria of the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. Eleven of the 70 mangrove species (16% are at elevated threat of extinction. Particular areas of geographical concern include the Atlantic and Pacific coasts of Central America, where as many as 40% of mangroves species present are threatened with extinction. Across the globe, mangrove species found primarily in the high intertidal and upstream estuarine zones, which often have specific freshwater requirements and patchy distributions, are the most threatened because they are often the first cleared for development of aquaculture and agriculture. The loss of mangrove species will have devastating economic and environmental consequences for coastal communities, especially in those areas with low mangrove diversity and high mangrove area or species loss. Several species at high risk of extinction may disappear well before the next decade if existing protective measures are not enforced.

Self-Directed Weight Loss Strategies: Energy Expenditure Due to Physical Activity Is Not Increased to Achieve Intended Weight Loss.

Science.gov (United States)

Elbelt, Ulf; Schuetz, Tatjana; Knoll, Nina; Burkert, Silke

2015-07-16

Reduced physical activity and almost unlimited availability of food are major contributors to the development of obesity. With the decline of strenuous work, energy expenditure due to spontaneous physical activity has attracted increasing attention. Our aim was to assess changes in energy expenditure, physical activity patterns and nutritional habits in obese subjects aiming at self-directed weight loss. Energy expenditure and physical activity patterns were measured with a portable armband device. Nutritional habits were assessed with a food frequency questionnaire. Data on weight development, energy expenditure, physical activity patterns and nutritional habits were obtained for 105 patients over a six-month period from an initial cohort of 160 outpatients aiming at weight loss. Mean weight loss was -1.5 ± 7.0 kg (p = 0.028). Patients with weight maintenance (n = 75), with substantial weight loss (>5% body weight, n = 20) and with substantial weight gain (>5% body weight, n = 10) did not differ in regard to changes of body weight adjusted energy expenditure components (total energy expenditure: -0.2 kcal/kg/day; non-exercise activity thermogenesis: -0.3 kcal/kg/day; exercise-related activity thermogenesis (EAT): -0.2 kcal/kg/day) or patterns of physical activity (duration of EAT: -2 min/day; steps/day: -156; metabolic equivalent unchanged) measured objectively with a portable armband device. Self-reported consumption frequency of unfavorable food decreased significantly (p = 0.019) over the six-month period. An increase in energy expenditure or changes of physical activity patterns (objectively assessed with a portable armband device) are not employed by obese subjects to achieve self-directed weight loss. However, modified nutritional habits could be detected with the use of a food frequency questionnaire.

Periodontal profile classes predict periodontal disease progression and tooth loss.

Science.gov (United States)

Morelli, Thiago; Moss, Kevin L; Preisser, John S; Beck, James D; Divaris, Kimon; Wu, Di; Offenbacher, Steven

2018-02-01

Current periodontal disease taxonomies have limited utility for predicting disease progression and tooth loss; in fact, tooth loss itself can undermine precise person-level periodontal disease classifications. To overcome this limitation, the current group recently introduced a novel patient stratification system using latent class analyses of clinical parameters, including patterns of missing teeth. This investigation sought to determine the clinical utility of the Periodontal Profile Classes and Tooth Profile Classes (PPC/TPC) taxonomy for risk assessment, specifically for predicting periodontal disease progression and incident tooth loss. The analytic sample comprised 4,682 adult participants of two prospective cohort studies (Dental Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study and Piedmont Dental Study) with information on periodontal disease progression and incident tooth loss. The PPC/TPC taxonomy includes seven distinct PPCs (person-level disease pattern and severity) and seven TPCs (tooth-level disease). Logistic regression modeling was used to estimate relative risks (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the association of these latent classes with disease progression and incident tooth loss, adjusting for examination center, race, sex, age, diabetes, and smoking. To obtain personalized outcome propensities, risk estimates associated with each participant's PPC and TPC were combined into person-level composite risk scores (Index of Periodontal Risk [IPR]). Individuals in two PPCs (PPC-G: Severe Disease and PPC-D: Tooth Loss) had the highest tooth loss risk (RR = 3.6; 95% CI = 2.6 to 5.0 and RR = 3.8; 95% CI = 2.9 to 5.1, respectively). PPC-G also had the highest risk for periodontitis progression (RR = 5.7; 95% CI = 2.2 to 14.7). Personalized IPR scores were positively associated with both periodontitis progression and tooth loss. These findings, upon additional validation, suggest that the periodontal/tooth profile classes and the derived

The Effects of Gain- versus Loss-Framed Messages Following Health Risk Information on Physical Activity in Individuals With Multiple Sclerosis.

Science.gov (United States)

Lithopoulos, Alexander; Bassett-Gunter, Rebecca L; Martin Ginis, Kathleen A; Latimer-Cheung, Amy E

2017-06-01

Few people with multiple sclerosis engage in physical activity. Messaging interventions may motivate more physical activity among these individuals. The purpose of this online study was to evaluate an intervention presenting participants with multiple sclerosis (N = 237) with risk information (i.e., information demonstrating people with multiple sclerosis are more likely to experience certain health issues) or no risk information followed by gain- or loss-framed physical activity messages. Participants completed questionnaires on Days 1, 6, and 28 and received information material on Days 2-5. The dependent variables were as follows: physical activity intentions and behavior, response and task efficacy, perceived threat (i.e., perception of threat to health issues relevant to people with multiple sclerosis), and avoidance (i.e., avoiding thinking about/doing something about the health issues presented in the messages). Analyses indicated physical activity and response efficacy increased over time. Also, participants receiving risk information had higher levels of physical activity and perceived threat. However, manipulation checks showed no differences between participants regarding perceptions of risk information or gain/loss-framed messages. Despite the lack of impact of the framing intervention, this study suggests that a brief informational intervention can positively influence physical activity and certain correlates of physical activity among people with multiple sclerosis.

Business interruption and loss of assets risk assessment in support of the design of an innovative concentrating solar power plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Amato, Andrea; Gallisto, Maurizio; Maccari, Augusto; Paganelli, Mauro; Compare, Michele; Zio, Enrico

2011-01-01

Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) plants are a promising technology of renewable energy production, as witnessed by the increasing public and private investments during the last decade. The assessment of the associated risks of business interruption (loss of production) and loss of assets due to the occurrence of undesired internal or external events, such as failures of components, unfavorable environmental conditions, etc., brings added values by informing design modifications and contributing to production assurance, for rational Company investments in these environmentally sustainable power plants. This work presents and applies a methodology for assessing the risks associated to a CSP of innovative design. The methodology is derived from traditional system risk analysis, specifically focused only on the economic consequences of the internal events of failure behavior of components. The innovation in the design considered is particularly aimed at augmenting the CSP intrinsic capability of being equipped with thermal storage systems by the introduction of a molten salt mixture as heat transfer fluid. This technology presents evident advantages in terms of system simplification and reduction of production costs but on the other hand introduces a risk factor with regards to the solidification of the salt mixture that occurs at about 240 C. (author)

Noise-induced hearing loss: a recreational noise perspective.

Science.gov (United States)

Ivory, Robert; Kane, Rebecca; Diaz, Rodney C

2014-10-01

This review will discuss the real-world risk factors involved in noise-induced hearing loss as a result of common and popular recreational activities prone to mid and high levels of noise exposure. Although there are currently no interventional measures available to reverse or mitigate preexisting hearing loss from noise, we discuss the vital importance of hearing loss prevention from noise exposure avoidance and reduction. Despite a seeming understanding of the effects of noise exposure from various recreational activities and devices, a large percentage of the general public who is at risk of such noise-induced hearing loss still chooses to refrain from using hearing protection instruments. While occupational exposures pose the greatest traditional risk to hearing conservation in selected workers, recreational risk factors for noise-induced hearing loss may be more insidious in overall effect given the indifferent attitude of much of the general public and particularly our youths toward hearing protection during recreational activities. Active counseling regarding the consequences of excessive noise exposure and the potential benefits to hearing from usage of hearing protection instruments is critical to providing best possible care in the hearing health professions.

Frontal, Striatal, and Medial Temporal Sensitivity to Value Distinguishes Risk-Taking from Risk-Aversive Older Adults during Decision Making.

Science.gov (United States)

Goh, Joshua O S; Su, Yu-Shiang; Tang, Yong-Jheng; McCarrey, Anna C; Tereshchenko, Alexander; Elkins, Wendy; Resnick, Susan M

2016-12-07

Aging compromises the frontal, striatal, and medial temporal areas of the reward system, impeding accurate value representation and feedback processing critical for decision making. However, substantial variability characterizes age-related effects on the brain so that some older individuals evince clear neurocognitive declines whereas others are spared. Moreover, the functional correlates of normative individual differences in older-adult value-based decision making remain unclear. We performed a functional magnetic resonance imaging study in 173 human older adults during a lottery choice task in which costly to more desirable stakes were depicted using low to high expected values (EVs) of points. Across trials that varied in EVs, participants decided to accept or decline the offered stakes to maximize total accumulated points. We found that greater age was associated with less optimal decisions, accepting stakes when losses were likely and declining stakes when gains were likely, and was associated with increased frontal activity for costlier stakes. Critically, risk preferences varied substantially across older adults and neural sensitivity to EVs in the frontal, striatal, and medial temporal areas dissociated risk-aversive from risk-taking individuals. Specifically, risk-averters increased neural responses to increasing EVs as stakes became more desirable, whereas risk-takers increased neural responses with decreasing EV as stakes became more costly. Risk preference also modulated striatal responses during feedback with risk-takers showing more positive responses to gains compared with risk-averters. Our findings highlight the frontal, striatal, and medial temporal areas as key neural loci in which individual differences differentially affect value-based decision-making ability in older adults. Frontal, striatal, and medial temporal functions implicated in value-based decision processing of rewards and costs undergo substantial age-related changes. However, age

Wisdom, Uncertainty, and Ambiguity in Management Decisions Based on Experiences and the Trustworthiness of Research Methods to Substantiate Them

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ronald Jean Degen

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Wisdom, uncertainty, and ambiguity will always exist in management decisions. One danger for firms lies in managers making decisions based on faulty theories acquired through personal experiences or learned from the experiences of others. Often, these decisions don’t generate the expected outcome and may even put the future of the firm at risk. Managers, to avoid this risk, are required to become wiser, more discerning, and more appropriately skeptical toward personal theories or theories learned from management gurus that propose simplistic formulas and quick-fix remedies. In this paper, the author discusses the risk of decisions based on personal theories or theories learned from others, the business research methods used to substantiate these theories, the philosophical assumptions of business research, the strength and weaknesses of qualitative and quantitative research methods, the benefits of combining both methods, and the trustworthiness of research methods in general for substantiating the theories used by managers in their decision-making. 

Increased risk of flooding on the coast of Alicante (Region of Valencia, Spain

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Olcina Cantos

2010-11-01

Full Text Available In the past two decades, episodes of flooding on the coast of Alicante (Spain have led to substantial losses in human life in economic terms. With increased exposure to these phenomena comes also increased vulnerability. Given the various effects of flooding in areas of similar exposure, differences in vulnerability across regions at risk need to be analysed also in terms of the socioeconomic factors of the groups of society that may be affected, and of their perception of risk. This paper studies the increased risk of flooding in three locations on the Alicante coast as a result of urban occupation of areas subject to this hazard. The consequences of the most recent episodes in this area are analysed and a risk assessment, using survey-based research in the affected areas, is performed.

The bereavement experience of adolescents and early young adults with cancer: Peer and parental loss due to death is associated with increased risk of adverse psychological outcomes.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Liza-Marie Johnson

Full Text Available Adolescents commonly experience loss due to death, and perceived closeness to the deceased can often increase the intensity of bereavement. Adolescents and early young adult (AeYA oncology patients may recall previous losses or experience new losses, possibly of other children with cancer, while coping with their own increased risk of mortality. The bereavement experiences of AeYA patients are not well described in the literature.This analysis of bereavement sought to describe the prevalence and types of losses, the support following a death, and the impact of loss on AeYAs aged 13-21 years with malignant disease (or a hematologic disorder requiring allogeneic transplant. Participants were receiving active oncologic therapy or had completed therapy within the past 3 years. Participants completed a bereavement questionnaire and inventories on depression, anxiety, and somatization. The cross-sectional study enrolled 153 AeYAs (95% participation, most (88% of whom had experienced a loss due to death. The most commonly reported losses were of a grandparent (58% or friend (37%. Peer deaths were predominantly cancer related (66%. Many participants (39% self-identified a loss as "very significant." As loss significance increased, AeYAs were more likely to report that it had changed their life "a lot/enormously" (P<0.0001, that they were grieving "slowly or never got over it" (P<0.0001, and that they felt a need for more professional help (P = 0.026. Peer loss was associated with increased risk of adverse psychological outcomes (P = 0.029, as was parental loss (P = 0.018.Most AeYAs with serious illness experience the grief process as slow or ongoing. Peer or parental loss was associated with increased risk of negative mental health outcomes. Given the high prevalence of peer loss, screening for bereavement problems is warranted in AeYAs with cancer, and further research on grief and bereavement is needed in AeYAs with serious illness.

Radiological risk assessment for the public under the loss of medium and large sources using bayesian methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Joo Yeon; Jang, Han Ki; Lee, Jai Ki

2005-01-01

Bayesian methodology is appropriated for use in PRA because subjective knowledges as well as objective data are applied to assessment. In this study, radiological risk based on Bayesian methodology is assessed for the loss of source in field radiography. The exposure scenario for the lost source presented in U.S. NRC is reconstructed by considering the domestic situation and Bayes theorem is applied to updating of failure probabilities of safety functions. In case of updating of failure probabilities, it shows that 5% Bayes credible intervals using Jeffreys prior distribution are lower than ones using vague prior distribution. It is noted that Jeffreys prior distribution is appropriated in risk assessment for systems having very low failure probabilities. And, it shows that the mean of the expected annual dose for the public based on Bayesian methodology is higher than the dose based on classical methodology because the means of the updated probabilities are higher than classical probabilities. The database for radiological risk assessment are sparse in domestic. It summarizes that Bayesian methodology can be applied as an useful alternative for risk assessment and the study on risk assessment will be contributed to risk-informed regulation in the field of radiation safety

Loss of 11q and 16q in Wilms tumors is associated with anaplasia, tumor recurrence, and poor prognosis.

Science.gov (United States)

Wittmann, Stefanie; Zirn, Birgit; Alkassar, Muhannad; Ambros, Peter; Graf, Norbert; Gessler, Manfred

2007-02-01

Allele loss of chromosome arms 11q and 16q in Wilms tumors has been associated with different clinical parameters in prior studies. To substantiate these findings in a large collection of tumors treated according to the GPOH/SIOP protocol and to narrow down critical regions, we performed loss of heterozygosity (LOH) analyses of chromosome arms 11q and 16q on 225 Wilms tumors. On chromosome arm 11q an overall rate of allele loss of 19.6% (44 of 225 tumors) was found using eleven markers that were almost evenly distributed along the long arm. Chromosome arm 16q was analyzed with six markers selected from gene-rich regions that identified an LOH rate of 18.4% (41/223). Evaluation of LOH with respect to clinical data revealed significant associations of LOH 11q with histology: LOH 11q was 3-4 times more frequent in mixed type and diffuse anaplastic tumors. In contrast, epithelial as well as stromal type tumors never exhibited allele loss on 11q. Furthermore, a significant correlation with tumor recurrence and death was detected, but only for tumors that lost the entire long arm of chromosome 11. Similarly, LOH 16q was correlated with higher risks of later relapse, especially in tumors with complete loss of the long arm. Hence, analyses of LOH on 11q and 16q appear to be helpful to identify tumors with a higher risk of relapse and adverse outcome, which need adjusted therapeutic approaches. Copyright 2006 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Environmental Risk Assessment for a Developing Country like India

Science.gov (United States)

Ahmed, Shamsuzzaman; Saha, Indranil

2017-04-01

The developing world is facing an increased risk of accelerating disaster losses. A concrete risk assessment along with subsequent management program involving identification, mitigation and preparedness will assist in rehabilitation and reconstruction once the disaster has struck is critical to subvert the magnitude of the loss incurred. A developing country like India has been taken as an example to highlight the elements mentioned. Most countries like India in the developing world is facing a mounting challenge to promote economic growth and bring down poverty. In this scenario, significant climatic changes will not only impact key economic sectors but also add to the existing conundrum. Sudden onset of natural calamities pose an increasing problem to the developing countries for which risk management strategies need to be forged in order to deal with such hazards. If this is not the case, then a substantial diversion of financial resources to reconstruction in the post disaster phase severely messes up the budget planning process. This compromises economic growth in the long run. Envisaging cost effective mitigation measures to minimize environmental and socio economic toll from natural disasters is the immediate requirement. Often it has been found that an apparent lack of historical data on catastrophic events makes hazard assessment an extremely difficult process. For this it is useful to establish preliminary maps to identify high risk zones and justify the utilization of funds. Vulnerability studies assess the physical, social and economic consequences that result from the occurrence of a severe natural phenomenon. Also they take into account public awareness of risk and the consequent ability to cope with such risks. Risk analysis collates information from hazard assessment and vulnerability studies in the form of an estimation of probable future losses in the face of similar hazards. Promoting different governmental schemes to catastrophe risk absorption

Assessing the Relationship Between Chronic Health Conditions and Productivity Loss Trajectories

Science.gov (United States)

Pranksy, Glenn

2014-01-01

Objective: To examine the relationship between health conditions and the risk for membership in longitudinal trajectories of productivity loss. Methods: Trajectories of productivity loss from the ages of 25 to 44 years, previously identified in the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY79), were combined with information on health conditions from the age 40 years health module in the NLSY79. Multinomial logistic regression was used to examine the relative risk of being in the low-risk, early-onset increasing risk, late-onset increasing risk, or high-risk trajectories compared with the no-risk trajectory for having various health conditions. Results: The trajectories with the greatest probability of productivity loss longitudinally had a greater prevalence of the individual health conditions and a greater total number of health conditions experienced. Conclusions: Health conditions are associated with specific longitudinal patterns of experiencing productivity loss. PMID:25479294

Aging and loss decision making: increased risk aversion and decreased use of maximizing information, with correlated rationality and value maximization.

Science.gov (United States)

Kurnianingsih, Yoanna A; Sim, Sam K Y; Chee, Michael W L; Mullette-Gillman, O'Dhaniel A

2015-01-01

We investigated how adult aging specifically alters economic decision-making, focusing on examining alterations in uncertainty preferences (willingness to gamble) and choice strategies (what gamble information influences choices) within both the gains and losses domains. Within each domain, participants chose between certain monetary outcomes and gambles with uncertain outcomes. We examined preferences by quantifying how uncertainty modulates choice behavior as if altering the subjective valuation of gambles. We explored age-related preferences for two types of uncertainty, risk, and ambiguity. Additionally, we explored how aging may alter what information participants utilize to make their choices by comparing the relative utilization of maximizing and satisficing information types through a choice strategy metric. Maximizing information was the ratio of the expected value of the two options, while satisficing information was the probability of winning. We found age-related alterations of economic preferences within the losses domain, but no alterations within the gains domain. Older adults (OA; 61-80 years old) were significantly more uncertainty averse for both risky and ambiguous choices. OA also exhibited choice strategies with decreased use of maximizing information. Within OA, we found a significant correlation between risk preferences and choice strategy. This linkage between preferences and strategy appears to derive from a convergence to risk neutrality driven by greater use of the effortful maximizing strategy. As utility maximization and value maximization intersect at risk neutrality, this result suggests that OA are exhibiting a relationship between enhanced rationality and enhanced value maximization. While there was variability in economic decision-making measures within OA, these individual differences were unrelated to variability within examined measures of cognitive ability. Our results demonstrate that aging alters economic decision-making for

Effects of economic interactions on credit risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hatchett, J P L; Kuehn, R

2006-01-01

We study a credit-risk model which captures effects of economic interactions on a firm's default probability. Economic interactions are represented as a functionally defined graph, and the existence of both cooperative and competitive business relations is taken into account. We provide an analytic solution of the model in a limit where the number of business relations of each company is large, but the overall fraction of the economy with which a given company interacts may be small. While the effects of economic interactions are relatively weak in typical (most probable) scenarios, they are pronounced in situations of economic stress, and thus lead to a substantial fattening of the tails of loss distributions in large loan portfolios. This manifests itself in a pronounced enhancement of the value at risk computed for interacting economies in comparison with their non-interacting counterparts

Establishing soil loss tolerance: an overview

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Costanza Di Stefano

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Soil loss tolerance is a criterion for establishing if a soil is potentially subjected to erosion risk, productivity loss and if a river presents downstream over-sedimentation or other off-site effects are present at basin scale. At first this paper reviews the concept of tolerable soil loss and summarises the available definitions and the knowledge on the recommended values and evaluating criteria. Then a threshold soil loss value, at the annual temporal scale, established for limiting riling was used for defining the classical soil loss tolerance. Finally, some research needs on tolerable soil loss are listed.

Economic inequality predicts biodiversity loss.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gregory M Mikkelson

Full Text Available Human activity is causing high rates of biodiversity loss. Yet, surprisingly little is known about the extent to which socioeconomic factors exacerbate or ameliorate our impacts on biological diversity. One such factor, economic inequality, has been shown to affect public health, and has been linked to environmental problems in general. We tested how strongly economic inequality is related to biodiversity loss in particular. We found that among countries, and among US states, the number of species that are threatened or declining increases substantially with the Gini ratio of income inequality. At both levels of analysis, the connection between income inequality and biodiversity loss persists after controlling for biophysical conditions, human population size, and per capita GDP or income. Future research should explore potential mechanisms behind this equality-biodiversity relationship. Our results suggest that economic reforms would go hand in hand with, if not serving as a prerequisite for, effective conservation.

Risk Factors for Osteoporosis and Oral Bone Loss in Postmenopausal Women

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Wactawski-Wende, Jean

2000-01-01

... and oral bone loss, periodontal disease and tooth loss. We hypothesize that reduction in bone density leading to osteoporosis, plays a significant role in increasing susceptibility to destructive periodontitis and tooth loss...

Risk Factors for Osteoporosis and Oral Bone Loss in Postmenopausal Women

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Wactawski-Wende, Jean

1999-01-01

... and oral bone loss, periodontal disease and tooth loss. We hypothesize that reduction in bone density leading to osteoporosis, plays a significant role in increasing susceptibility to destructive periodontitis and tooth loss...

Risk Factors for Osteoporosis and Oral Bone Loss in Postmenopausal Women

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Wactawski-Wende, Jean

2001-01-01

... and oral bone loss, periodontal disease and tooth loss. We hypothesize that reduction in bone density leading to osteoporosis, plays a significant role in increasing susceptibility to destructive periodontitis and tooth loss...

Risk Factors for Osteoporosis and Oral Bone Loss in Postmenopausal Women

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Wacawski-Wende, Jean

1997-01-01

... and oral bone loss, periodontal disease and tooth loss. We hypothesize that reduction in bone density leading to osteoporosis, plays a significant role in increasing susceptibility to destructive periodontitis and tooth loss...

Risk Factors for Osteoporosis and Oral Bone Loss in Postmenopausal Women

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Wactawski-Wende, Jean

1998-01-01

... and oral bone loss, periodontal disease and tooth loss. We hypothesize that reduction in bone density leading to osteoporosis, plays a significant role in increasing susceptibility to destructive periodontitis and tooth loss...

Lossed in translation: an off-the-shelf method to recover probabilistic beliefs from loss-averse agents.

Science.gov (United States)

Offerman, Theo; Palley, Asa B

2016-01-01

Strictly proper scoring rules are designed to truthfully elicit subjective probabilistic beliefs from risk neutral agents. Previous experimental studies have identified two problems with this method: (i) risk aversion causes agents to bias their reports toward the probability of [Formula: see text], and (ii) for moderate beliefs agents simply report [Formula: see text]. Applying a prospect theory model of risk preferences, we show that loss aversion can explain both of these behavioral phenomena. Using the insights of this model, we develop a simple off-the-shelf probability assessment mechanism that encourages loss-averse agents to report true beliefs. In an experiment, we demonstrate the effectiveness of this modification in both eliminating uninformative reports and eliciting true probabilistic beliefs.

Intellectual Capital at Risk: Data Management Practices and Data Loss by Faculty Members at Five American Universities

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jaime Schumacher

2015-06-01

Full Text Available A study of 56 professors at five American universities found that a majority had little understanding of principles, well-known in the field of data curation, informing the ongoing administration of digital materials and chose to manage and store work-related data by relying on the use of their own storage devices and cloud accounts. It also found that a majority of them had experienced the loss of at least one work-related digital object that they considered to be important in the course of their professional career. Despite such a rate of loss, a majority of respondents expressed at least a moderate level of confidence that they would be able to make use of their digital objects in 25 years. The data suggest that many faculty members are unaware that their data is at risk. They also indicate a strong correlation between faculty members’ digital object loss and their data management practices. University professors producing digital objects can help themselves by becoming aware that these materials are subject to loss. They can also benefit from awareness and use of better personal data management practices, as well as participation in university-level programmatic digital curation efforts and the availability of more readily accessible, robust infrastructure for the storage of digital materials.

Chasing losses in online poker and casino games: characteristics and game play of Internet gamblers at risk of disordered gambling.

Science.gov (United States)

Gainsbury, Sally M; Suhonen, Niko; Saastamoinen, Jani

2014-07-30

Disordered Internet gambling is a psychological disorder that represents an important public health issue due to the increase in highly available and conveniently accessible Internet gambling sites. Chasing losses is one of the few observable markers of at-risk and problem gambling that may be used to detect early signs of disordered Internet gambling. This study examined loss chasing behaviour in a sample of Internet casino and poker players and the socio-demographic variables, irrational beliefs, and gambling behaviours associated with chasing losses. An online survey was completed by 10,838 Internet gamblers (58% male) from 96 countries. The results showed that Internet casino players had a greater tendency to report chasing losses than poker players and gamblers who reported chasing losses were more likely to hold irrational beliefs about gambling and spend more time and money gambling than those who reported that they were unaffected by previous losses. Gamblers who played for excitement and to win money were more likely to report chasing losses. This study is one of the largest ever studies of Internet gamblers and the results are highly significant as they provide insight into the characteristics and behaviours of gamblers using this mode of access. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

The neural basis of loss aversion in decision-making under risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Tom, Sabrina M; Fox, Craig R; Trepel, Christopher; Poldrack, Russell A

2007-01-26

People typically exhibit greater sensitivity to losses than to equivalent gains when making decisions. We investigated neural correlates of loss aversion while individuals decided whether to accept or reject gambles that offered a 50/50 chance of gaining or losing money. A broad set of areas (including midbrain dopaminergic regions and their targets) showed increasing activity as potential gains increased. Potential losses were represented by decreasing activity in several of these same gain-sensitive areas. Finally, individual differences in behavioral loss aversion were predicted by a measure of neural loss aversion in several regions, including the ventral striatum and prefrontal cortex.

Establishing soil loss tolerance: an overview

OpenAIRE

Costanza Di Stefano; Vito Ferro

2016-01-01

Soil loss tolerance is a criterion for establishing if a soil is potentially subjected to erosion risk, productivity loss and if a river presents downstream over-sedimentation or other off-site effects are present at basin scale. At first this paper reviews the concept of tolerable soil loss and summarises the available definitions and the knowledge on the recommended values and evaluating criteria. Then a threshold soil loss value, at the annual temporal scale, established for limiting rilin...

Earthquake Hazard and Risk in New Zealand

Science.gov (United States)

Apel, E. V.; Nyst, M.; Fitzenz, D. D.; Molas, G.

2014-12-01

To quantify risk in New Zealand we examine the impact of updating the seismic hazard model. The previous RMS New Zealand hazard model is based on the 2002 probabilistic seismic hazard maps for New Zealand (Stirling et al., 2002). The 2015 RMS model, based on Stirling et al., (2012) will update several key source parameters. These updates include: implementation a new set of crustal faults including multi-segment ruptures, updating the subduction zone geometry and reccurrence rate and implementing new background rates and a robust methodology for modeling background earthquake sources. The number of crustal faults has increased by over 200 from the 2002 model, to the 2012 model which now includes over 500 individual fault sources. This includes the additions of many offshore faults in northern, east-central, and southwest regions. We also use the recent data to update the source geometry of the Hikurangi subduction zone (Wallace, 2009; Williams et al., 2013). We compare hazard changes in our updated model with those from the previous version. Changes between the two maps are discussed as well as the drivers for these changes. We examine the impact the hazard model changes have on New Zealand earthquake risk. Considered risk metrics include average annual loss, an annualized expected loss level used by insurers to determine the costs of earthquake insurance (and premium levels), and the loss exceedance probability curve used by insurers to address their solvency and manage their portfolio risk. We analyze risk profile changes in areas with large population density and for structures of economic and financial importance. New Zealand is interesting in that the city with the majority of the risk exposure in the country (Auckland) lies in the region of lowest hazard, where we don't have a lot of information about the location of faults and distributed seismicity is modeled by averaged Mw-frequency relationships on area sources. Thus small changes to the background rates

A Lifestyle Program of Exercise and Weight Loss is Effective in Preventing and Treating Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: Why Are Programs Not More Available?

OpenAIRE

Ades, Philip A.

2015-01-01

There is substantial evidence that type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) can be prevented in high-risk individuals by a lifestyle program of regular exercise and weight reduction. Additionally, there is emerging evidence that new onset T2DM (< 1 year) can go into remission after weight loss and exercise in a majority of motivated individuals, obviating a need for glucose lowering medications. Yet, lifestyle programs to support such behavior change are not widely available. Moreover, health care ins...

Measurements of DT alpha particle loss near the outer midplane of TFTR

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zweben, S.J.; Darrow, D.S.; Herrmann, H.W.; Redi, M.H.; Schivell, J.; White, R.B.

1995-07-01

Measurements of DT alpha particle loss to the outer midplane region of TFTR have been made using a radially movable scintillator detector. The conclusion from this data is that mechanisms determining the DT alpha loss to the outer midplane are not substantially different from those for DD fusion products. Some of these results are compared with a simplified theoretical model for TF ripple-induced alpha loss, which is expected to be the dominant classical alpha loss mechanism near the outer midplane. An example of plasma-driven MHD-induced alpha particle loss is shown, but no signs of any ''collective'' alpha instability-induced alpha loss have yet been observed

Risk of Performance Decrements and Adverse Health Outcomes Resulting from Sleep Loss, Circadian Desynchronization, and Work Overload

Science.gov (United States)

Flynn-Evans, Erin; Gregory, Kevin; Arsintescu, Lucia; Whitmire, Alexandra

2016-01-01

Sleep loss, circadian desynchronization, and work overload occur to some extent for ground and flight crews, prior to and during spaceflight missions. Ground evidence indicates that such risk factors may lead to performance decrements and adverse health outcomes, which could potentially compromise mission objectives. Efforts are needed to identify the environmental and mission conditions that interfere with sleep and circadian alignment, as well as individual differences in vulnerability and resiliency to sleep loss and circadian desynchronization. Specifically, this report highlights a collection of new evidence to better characterize the risk and reveals new gaps in this risk as follows: Sleep loss is apparent during spaceflight. Astronauts consistently average less sleep during spaceflight relative to on the ground. The causes of this sleep loss remain unknown, however ground-based evidence suggests that the sleep duration of astronauts is likely to lead to performance impairment and short and long-term health consequences. Further research is needed in this area in order to develop screening tools to assess individual astronaut sleep need in order to quantify the magnitude of sleep loss during spaceflight; current and planned efforts in BHP's research portfolio address this need. In addition, it is still unclear whether the conditions of spaceflight environment lead to sleep loss or whether other factors, such as work overload lead to the reduced sleep duration. Future data mining efforts and continued data collection on the ISS will help to further characterize factors contributing to sleep loss. Sleep inertia has not been evaluated during spaceflight. Ground-based studies confirm that it takes two to four hours to achieve optimal performance after waking from a sleep episode. Sleep inertia has been associated with increased accidents and reduced performance in operational environments. Sleep inertia poses considerable risk during spaceflight when emergency

Hull loss accident model for narrow body commercial aircraft

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Somchanok Tiabtiamrat

2010-10-01

Full Text Available Accidents with narrow body aircraft were statistically evaluated covering six families of commercial aircraft includingBoeing B737, Airbus A320, McDonnell Douglas MD80, Tupolev TU134/TU154 and Antonov AN124. A risk indicator for eachflight phase was developed based on motion characteristics, duration time, and the presence of adverse weather conditions.The estimated risk levels based on these risk indicators then developed from the risk indicator. Regression analysis indicatedvery good agreement between the estimated risk level and the accident ratio of hull loss cases per number of delivered aircraft.The effect of time on the hull loss accident ratio per delivered aircraft was assessed for B737, A320 and MD80. Equationsrepresenting the effect of time on hull loss accident ratio per delivered aircraft were proposed for B737, A320, and MD80,while average values of hull loss accident ratio per delivered aircraft were found for TU134, TU154, and AN 124. Accidentprobability equations were then developed for each family of aircraft that the probability of an aircraft in a hull loss accidentcould be estimated for any aircraft family, flight phase, presence of adverse weather factor, hour of day, day of week, monthof year, pilot age, and pilot flight hour experience. A simplified relationship between estimated hull loss accident probabilityand unsafe acts by human was proposed. Numerical investigation of the relationship between unsafe acts by human andfatality ratio suggested that the fatality ratio in hull loss accident was dominated primarily by the flight phase media.

Effects of Geographic Diversification on Risk Pooling to Mitigate Drought-Related Financial Losses for Water Utilities

Science.gov (United States)

Baum, Rachel; Characklis, Gregory W.; Serre, Marc L.

2018-04-01

As the costs and regulatory barriers to new water supply development continue to rise, drought management strategies have begun to rely more heavily on temporary conservation measures. While these measures are effective, they often lead to intermittent and unpredictable reductions in revenues that are financially disruptive to water utilities, raising concerns over lower credit ratings and higher rates of borrowing for this capital intensive sector. Consequently, there is growing interest in financial risk management strategies that reduce utility vulnerabilities. This research explores the development of financial index insurance designed to compensate a utility for drought-related losses. The focus is on analyzing candidate hydrologic indices that have the potential to be used by utilities across the US, increasing the potential for risk pooling, which would offer the possibility of both lower risk management costs and more widespread implementation. This work first analyzes drought-related financial risks for 315 publicly operated water utilities across the country and examines the effectiveness of financial contracts based on several indices both in terms of their correlation with utility revenues and their spatial autocorrelation across locations. Hydrologic-based index insurance contracts are then developed and tested over a 120 year period. Results indicate that risk pooling, even under conditions in which droughts are subject to some level of spatial autocorrelation, has the potential to significantly reduce the cost of managing financial risk.

Ensemble Learning or Deep Learning? Application to Default Risk Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shigeyuki Hamori

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Proper credit-risk management is essential for lending institutions, as substantial losses can be incurred when borrowers default. Consequently, statistical methods that can measure and analyze credit risk objectively are becoming increasingly important. This study analyzes default payment data and compares the prediction accuracy and classification ability of three ensemble-learning methods—specifically, bagging, random forest, and boosting—with those of various neural-network methods, each of which has a different activation function. The results obtained indicate that the classification ability of boosting is superior to other machine-learning methods including neural networks. It is also found that the performance of neural-network models depends on the choice of activation function, the number of middle layers, and the inclusion of dropout.

Insights into location dependent loss-of-coolant-accident (LOCA) frequency assessment for GSI-191 risk-informed applications

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fleming, K.N., E-mail: KarlFleming@comcast.net [KNF Consulting LLC, Spokane, WA (United States); Lydell, B.O.Y. [SIGMA-PHASE INC., Vail, AZ (United States)

2016-08-15

Highlights: • Role of operating experience in loss-of-coolant-accident (LOCA) frequency assessment. • Plant-to-plant variability in calculated LOCA frequency. • Frequency of double-ended-guillotine-break (DEGB). • Uncertainties in LOCA frequencies. • Risk management insights. - Abstract: As a tribute to the published work by S.H. Bush, S. Beliczey and H. Schulz, this paper assesses the progress with methods and techniques for quantifying the reliability of piping systems in commercial nuclear power plants on the basis of failure rate estimates derived from field experience data in combination with insights and results from probabilistic fracture mechanics analyses and expert elicitation exercises. This status assessment is made from a technical perspective obtained through development of location-specific loss-of-coolant-accident (LOCA) frequencies for input to risk-informed resolution of the generic safety issue (GSI) 191. The methods and techniques on which these GSI-191 applications are based build on a body of work developed by the authors during a period spanning more than two decades. The insights that are presented and discussed in this paper cover today’s knowledge base concerning how to utilize a risk-informed approach to the assessment of piping reliability in the context of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in general and the resolution of GSI-191 in particular. Specifically the paper addresses the extent to which LOCA frequencies vary from location to location within a reactor coolant system pressure boundary (RCPB) for a given plant as well as vary from plant to plant, and the reasons for these variabilities. Furthermore, the paper provides the authors’ perspectives on interpretations and applications of information extracted from an expert elicitation process to obtain LOCA frequencies as documented in NUREG-1829 and how to apply this information to GSI-191. Finally, this paper documents technical insights relative to mitigation of

Insights into location dependent loss-of-coolant-accident (LOCA) frequency assessment for GSI-191 risk-informed applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fleming, K.N.; Lydell, B.O.Y.

2016-01-01

Highlights: • Role of operating experience in loss-of-coolant-accident (LOCA) frequency assessment. • Plant-to-plant variability in calculated LOCA frequency. • Frequency of double-ended-guillotine-break (DEGB). • Uncertainties in LOCA frequencies. • Risk management insights. - Abstract: As a tribute to the published work by S.H. Bush, S. Beliczey and H. Schulz, this paper assesses the progress with methods and techniques for quantifying the reliability of piping systems in commercial nuclear power plants on the basis of failure rate estimates derived from field experience data in combination with insights and results from probabilistic fracture mechanics analyses and expert elicitation exercises. This status assessment is made from a technical perspective obtained through development of location-specific loss-of-coolant-accident (LOCA) frequencies for input to risk-informed resolution of the generic safety issue (GSI) 191. The methods and techniques on which these GSI-191 applications are based build on a body of work developed by the authors during a period spanning more than two decades. The insights that are presented and discussed in this paper cover today’s knowledge base concerning how to utilize a risk-informed approach to the assessment of piping reliability in the context of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in general and the resolution of GSI-191 in particular. Specifically the paper addresses the extent to which LOCA frequencies vary from location to location within a reactor coolant system pressure boundary (RCPB) for a given plant as well as vary from plant to plant, and the reasons for these variabilities. Furthermore, the paper provides the authors’ perspectives on interpretations and applications of information extracted from an expert elicitation process to obtain LOCA frequencies as documented in NUREG-1829 and how to apply this information to GSI-191. Finally, this paper documents technical insights relative to mitigation of

Different Categories of Business Risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Simona-Valeria TOMA

2011-11-01

Full Text Available Every business organisation involves some element of risk. Unmitigated risks can result in lost opportunity, financial losses, loss of reputation, or loss of the right to operate in a jurisdiction. Like any other risk type, understanding business risks is quite important for every business to garner profits instead of facing losses. A business risk is a universal risk type; this means that every business in the world faces business risks. Therefore, it is imperative to understand the different categories of business risk in order to create the appropriate strategies. The aim of this paper is to describe the most important categories of business risks and to make sure that every type of risk receives equal treatment and consideration.

Assessment of the regional economic impacts of catastrophic events: CGE analysis of resource loss and behavioral effects of an RDD attack scenario.

Science.gov (United States)

Giesecke, J A; Burns, W J; Barrett, A; Bayrak, E; Rose, A; Slovic, P; Suher, M

2012-04-01

We investigate the regional economic consequences of a hypothetical catastrophic event-attack via radiological dispersal device (RDD)-centered on the downtown Los Angeles area. We distinguish two routes via which such an event might affect regional economic activity: (i) reduction in effective resource supply (the resource loss effect) and (ii) shifts in the perceptions of economic agents (the behavioral effect). The resource loss effect relates to the physical destructiveness of the event, while the behavioral effect relates to changes in fear and risk perception. Both affect the size of the regional economy. RDD detonation causes little capital damage and few casualties, but generates substantial short-run resource loss via business interruption. Changes in fear and risk perception increase the supply cost of resources to the affected region, while simultaneously reducing demand for goods produced in the region. We use results from a nationwide survey, tailored to our RDD scenario, to inform our model values for behavioral effects. Survey results, supplemented by findings from previous research on stigmatized asset values, suggest that in the region affected by the RDD, households may require higher wages, investors may require higher returns, and customers may require price discounts. We show that because behavioral effects may have lingering long-term deleterious impacts on both the supply-cost of resources to a region and willingness to pay for regional output, they can generate changes in regional gross domestic product (GDP) much greater than those generated by resource loss effects. Implications for policies that have the potential to mitigate these effects are discussed. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

Self-Directed Weight Loss Strategies: Energy Expenditure Due to Physical Activity Is Not Increased to Achieve Intended Weight Loss

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ulf Elbelt

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Reduced physical activity and almost unlimited availability of food are major contributors to the development of obesity. With the decline of strenuous work, energy expenditure due to spontaneous physical activity has attracted increasing attention. Our aim was to assess changes in energy expenditure, physical activity patterns and nutritional habits in obese subjects aiming at self-directed weight loss. Methods: Energy expenditure and physical activity patterns were measured with a portable armband device. Nutritional habits were assessed with a food frequency questionnaire. Results: Data on weight development, energy expenditure, physical activity patterns and nutritional habits were obtained for 105 patients over a six-month period from an initial cohort of 160 outpatients aiming at weight loss. Mean weight loss was −1.5 ± 7.0 kg (p = 0.028. Patients with weight maintenance (n = 75, with substantial weight loss (>5% body weight, n = 20 and with substantial weight gain (>5% body weight, n = 10 did not differ in regard to changes of body weight adjusted energy expenditure components (total energy expenditure: −0.2 kcal/kg/day; non-exercise activity thermogenesis: −0.3 kcal/kg/day; exercise-related activity thermogenesis (EAT: −0.2 kcal/kg/day or patterns of physical activity (duration of EAT: −2 min/day; steps/day: −156; metabolic equivalent unchanged measured objectively with a portable armband device. Self-reported consumption frequency of unfavorable food decreased significantly (p = 0.019 over the six-month period. Conclusions: An increase in energy expenditure or changes of physical activity patterns (objectively assessed with a portable armband device are not employed by obese subjects to achieve self-directed weight loss. However, modified nutritional habits could be detected with the use of a food frequency questionnaire.

Infertility and Perinatal Loss: When the Bough Breaks

Science.gov (United States)

Byatt, Nancy

2016-01-01

Infertility and perinatal loss are common, and associated with lower quality of life, marital discord, complicated grief, major depressive disorder, anxiety disorders, and posttraumatic stress disorder. Young women, who lack social supports, have experienced recurrent pregnancy loss or a history of trauma and / or preexisting psychiatric illness are at a higher risk of experiencing psychiatric illnesses or symptoms after a perinatal loss or during infertility. It is especially important to detect, assess, and treat depression, anxiety, or other psychiatric symptoms because infertility or perinatal loss may be caused or perpetuated by such symptoms. Screening, psychoeducation, provision of resources and referrals, and an opportunity to discuss their loss and plan for future pregnancies can facilitate addressing mental health concerns that arise. Women at risk of or who are currently experiencing psychiatric symptoms should receive a comprehensive treatment plan that includes the following: (1) proactive clinical monitoring, (2) evidence-based approaches to psychotherapy, and (3) discussion of risks, benefits, and alternatives of medication treatment during preconception and pregnancy. PMID:26847216

Losses, inefficiencies and waste in the global food system.

Science.gov (United States)

Alexander, Peter; Brown, Calum; Arneth, Almut; Finnigan, John; Moran, Dominic; Rounsevell, Mark D A

2017-05-01

Losses at every stage in the food system influence the extent to which nutritional requirements of a growing global population can be sustainably met. Inefficiencies and losses in agricultural production and consumer behaviour all play a role. This paper aims to understand better the magnitude of different losses and to provide insights into how these influence overall food system efficiency. We take a systems view from primary production of agricultural biomass through to human food requirements and consumption. Quantities and losses over ten stages are calculated and compared in terms of dry mass, wet mass, protein and energy. The comparison reveals significant differences between these measurements, and the potential for wet mass figures used in previous studies to be misleading. The results suggest that due to cumulative losses, the proportion of global agricultural dry biomass consumed as food is just 6% (9.0% for energy and 7.6% for protein), and 24.8% of harvest biomass (31.9% for energy and 27.8% for protein). The highest rates of loss are associated with livestock production, although the largest absolute losses of biomass occur prior to harvest. Losses of harvested crops were also found to be substantial, with 44.0% of crop dry matter (36.9% of energy and 50.1% of protein) lost prior to human consumption. If human over-consumption, defined as food consumption in excess of nutritional requirements, is included as an additional inefficiency, 48.4% of harvested crops were found to be lost (53.2% of energy and 42.3% of protein). Over-eating was found to be at least as large a contributor to food system losses as consumer food waste. The findings suggest that influencing consumer behaviour, e.g. to eat less animal products, or to reduce per capita consumption closer to nutrient requirements, offer substantial potential to improve food security for the rising global population in a sustainable manner.

Effect of a High Protein Weight Loss Diet on Weight, High-Sensitivity C-Reactive Protein, and Cardiovascular Risk among Overweight and Obese Women: A Parallel Clinical Trial

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Leila Azadbakht

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Studies regarding the effects of high protein (HP diets on cardiovascular (CVD risk factors have reported contradictory results. We aimed to determine the effects of an HP diet on CVD risk factors and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP among overweight and obese women. In this randomized controlled trial, we recruited 60 overweight and obese women, aged 20–65, into an HP or energy-restricted control diet for three months (protein, carbohydrate, and fat: 25%, 45%, and 30% versus 15%, 55%, and 30%, resp.. Total protein was divided between animal and plant sources in a 1 : 1 ratio, and animal sources were distributed equally between meats and dairy products. Fasting blood samples, hs-CRP, lipid profile, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, and anthropometric measurements were assessed using standard guidelines. Percent change was significantly different between the two diet groups for weight (standard protein (SP: −3.90 ± 0.26 versus HP: −6.10 ± 0.34%; , resp. and waist circumference (SP: −3.03 ± 0.21 versus HP: −5.06 ± 0.28%; , resp.. Percent change of fasting blood glucose (FBG substantially decreased in the control group compared to the HP group (−9.13 ± 0.67 versus −4.93 ± 1.4%; P = 0.01, resp.. Total cholesterol, systolic blood pressure (SBP, and diastolic blood pressure (DBP decreased both in the HP and in the control diet groups (P = 0.06, P = 0.07, and P = 0.09, resp.; however, the results were marginally significant. Serum levels of hs-CRP were reduced both in the control (−0.08 ± 0.11%, P = 0.06 and in the high protein groups (−0.04 ± 0.09%, P = 0.06. The energy-restricted HP diet resulted in more beneficial effects on weight loss and reduction of waist circumference. CVD risk factors may improve with HP diets among overweight and obese women. When using isoenergetic weight loss diets, total cholesterol, hs-CRP, and SBP were marginally significantly reduced, independent of dietary protein content

Transcriptome and DNA Methylome Analysis in a Mouse Model of Diet-Induced Obesity Predicts Increased Risk of Colorectal Cancer

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ruifang Li

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Colorectal cancer (CRC tends to occur at older age; however, CRC incidence rates have been rising sharply among young age groups. The increasing prevalence of obesity is recognized as a major risk, yet the mechanistic underpinnings remain poorly understood. Using a diet-induced obesity mouse model, we identified obesity-associated molecular changes in the colonic epithelium of young and aged mice, and we further investigated whether the changes were reversed after weight loss. Transcriptome analysis indicated that obesity-related colonic cellular metabolic switch favoring long-chain fatty acid oxidation happened in young mice, while obesity-associated downregulation of negative feedback regulators of pro-proliferative signaling pathways occurred in older mice. Strikingly, colonic DNA methylome was pre-programmed by obesity at young age, priming for a tumor-prone gene signature after aging. Furthermore, obesity-related changes were substantially preserved after short-term weight loss, but they were largely reversed after long-term weight loss. We provided mechanistic insights into increased CRC risk in obesity.

Monitoring the risk of loss of heat sink during plant shutdowns at Bruce Generating Station 'A'

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krishnan, K.S.; Mancuso, F.; Vecchiarelli, D.

1996-01-01

A relatively simple loss of shutdown heat sink fault tree model has been developed and used during unit outages at Bruce Nuclear Generation Station 'A' to assess, from a risk and reliability perspective, alternative heat sink strategies and to aid in decisions on allowable outage configurations. The model is adjusted to reflect the various unit configurations planned during a specific outage, and identifies events and event combinations leading to loss of fuel cooling. The calculated failure frequencies are compared to the limits consistent with corporate and international public safety goals. The importance measures generated by the interrogation of the fault tree model for each outage configuration are also used to reschedule configurations with high fuel damage frequency later into the outage and to control the configurations with relatively high probability of fuel damage to short intervals at the most appropriate time into the outage. (author)

Loss Database Architecture for Disaster Risk Management

OpenAIRE

RIOS DIAZ FRANCISCO; MARIN FERRER MONTSERRAT

2018-01-01

The reformed Union civil protection legislation (Decision on a Union Civil Protection Mechanism), which entered into force on 1 January 2014, is paving the way for more resilient communities by including key actions related to disaster prevention such as developing national risk assessments and the refinement of risk management planning. Under the Decision, Member States agreed to “develop risk assessments at national or appropriate sub- national level and make available to the Commission a s...

Evaluating of the spatial heterogeneity of soil loss tolerance and its effects on erosion risk in the carbonate areas of southern China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Y. Li

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Soil loss tolerance (T value is one of the criteria in determining the necessity of erosion control measures and ecological restoration strategy. However, the validity of this criterion in subtropical karst regions is strongly disputed. In this study, T value is calculated based on soil formation rate by using a digital distribution map of carbonate rock assemblage types. Results indicated a spatial heterogeneity and diversity in soil loss tolerance. Instead of only one criterion, a minimum of three criteria should be considered when investigating the carbonate areas of southern China because the one region, one T value concept may not be applicable to this region. T value is proportionate to the amount of argillaceous material, which determines the surface soil thickness of the formations in homogenous carbonate rock areas. Homogenous carbonate rock, carbonate rock intercalated with clastic rock areas and carbonate/clastic rock alternation areas have T values of 20, 50 and 100 t/(km2 a, and they are extremely, severely and moderately sensitive to soil erosion. Karst rocky desertification (KRD is defined as extreme soil erosion and reflects the risks of erosion. Thus, the relationship between T value and erosion risk is determined using KRD as a parameter. The existence of KRD land is unrelated to the T value, although this parameter indicates erosion sensitivity. Erosion risk is strongly dependent on the relationship between real soil loss (RL and T value rather than on either erosion intensity or the T value itself. If RL > > T, then the erosion risk is high despite of a low RL. Conversely, if T > > RL, then the soil is safe although RL is high. Overall, these findings may clarify the heterogeneity of T value and its effect on erosion risk in a karst environment.

Comparison of Risk Factor Profiles for Primary Open-Angle Glaucoma Subtypes Defined by Pattern of Visual Field Loss: A Prospective Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Kang, Jae H; Loomis, Stephanie J; Rosner, Bernard A; Wiggs, Janey L; Pasquale, Louis R

2015-04-01

We explored whether risk factor associations differed by primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG) subtypes defined by visual field (VF) loss pattern (i.e., paracentral or peripheral). We included 77,157 women in the Nurses' Health Study (NHS) and 42,773 men in the Health Professionals Follow-up Study (HPFS 1986-2010), and incident medical record confirmed cases of paracentral (n = 440) and peripheral (n = 865) POAG subtypes. We evaluated African heritage, glaucoma family history, body mass index (BMI), mean arterial blood pressure, diabetes mellitus, physical activity, smoking, caffeine intake, and alcohol intake. We used competing risk Cox regression analyses modeling age as the metameter and stratified by age, cohort, and event type. We sequentially identified factors with the least significant differences in associations with POAG subtypes ("stepwise down" approach with P for heterogeneity [P-het] 0.10) adverse associations with both POAG subtypes were observed with glaucoma family history, diabetes, African heritage, greater caffeine intake, and higher mean arterial pressure. These data indicate that POAG with early paracentral VF loss has distinct as well as common determinants compared with POAG with peripheral VF loss.

Recovery of Abnormal ABR in Neonates and Infants at Risk of Hearing Loss.

Science.gov (United States)

Psarommatis, Ioannis; Voudouris, Charalampos; Kapetanakis, Ioannis; Athanasiadi, Faselida; Douros, Konstantinos

2017-01-01

The purpose of this retrospective study is to present the clinical experience of a single institution on the recovery of ABR thresholds in a large population of neonates and infants at risk of hearing loss. Potential prognostic factors associated with this phenomenon were also investigated. Out of 2248 high risk infants, 384 had abnormal ABR at initial hearing evaluation and 168 of them had absent ABR or a threshold ≥80 dBnHL. From this subgroup, a significant percentage showed complete or partial recovery on reexamination (32.7% and 9.3%, resp.), performed 4-6 months later. The presence of normal otoacoustic emissions was associated with the ABR restoration on reexamination. Moreover, the very young age at the initial hearing screening seems to be related to higher probabilities of false positive ABR. The potential recovery of hearing in HR infants raises concerns about the very early cochlear implantation in HR infants less than one year. Such a treatment modality should be decided cautiously and only after obtaining valid and stable objective and subjective hearing thresholds. This holds especially true for infants showing an auditory neuropathy profile, as they presented a much greater probability of ABR recovery.

Adherence to low-carbohydrate and low-fat diets in relation to weight loss and cardiovascular risk factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, Tian; Yao, Lu; Reynolds, Kristi; Niu, Tianhua; Li, Shengxu; Whelton, Paul K; He, Jiang; Steffen, Lyn M; Bazzano, Lydia A

2016-03-01

A low-carbohydrate diet can reduce body weight and some cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors more than a low-fat diet, but differential adherence may play a role in these effects. Data were used from 148 adults who participated in a 12-month clinical trial examining the effect of a low-carbohydrate diet (fat diet (fat, fat) on weight and CVD risk factors. We compared attendance at counseling sessions, deviation from nutrient goals, urinary ketone presence, and composite scores representing the overall adherence based on the distribution of these individual indicators between two interventions. Composite scores were similar between the two groups. A one-interquartile-range increase in composite score representing better adherence to a low-carbohydrate diet was associated with 2.2 kg or 2.3 % greater weight loss, 1.1 greater reduction in percent fat mass, and 1.3 greater increase in proportion of lean mass. Indicators of adherence to a low-fat diet was not associated with changes in weight, fat mass or lean mass. Despite comparable adherence between groups, a low-carbohydrate diet was associated with greater reductions in body weight and improvement in body composition, while a low-fat diet was not associated with weight loss.

Flood protection diversification to reduce probabilities of extreme losses.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Qian; Lambert, James H; Karvetski, Christopher W; Keisler, Jeffrey M; Linkov, Igor

2012-11-01

Recent catastrophic losses because of floods require developing resilient approaches to flood risk protection. This article assesses how diversification of a system of coastal protections might decrease the probabilities of extreme flood losses. The study compares the performance of portfolios each consisting of four types of flood protection assets in a large region of dike rings. A parametric analysis suggests conditions in which diversifications of the types of included flood protection assets decrease extreme flood losses. Increased return periods of extreme losses are associated with portfolios where the asset types have low correlations of economic risk. The effort highlights the importance of understanding correlations across asset types in planning for large-scale flood protection. It allows explicit integration of climate change scenarios in developing flood mitigation strategy. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Professional Rugby Union players have a 60% greater risk of time loss injury after concussion: a 2-season prospective study of clinical outcomes

Science.gov (United States)

Cross, Matthew; Kemp, Simon; Smith, Andrew; Trewartha, Grant; Stokes, Keith

2016-01-01

Aim To investigate incidence of concussion, clinical outcomes and subsequent injury risk following concussion. Methods In a two-season (2012/2013, 2013/2014) prospective cohort study, incidence of diagnosed match concussions (injuries/1000 h), median time interval to subsequent injury of any type (survival time) and time spent at each stage of the graduated return to play pathway were determined in 810 professional Rugby Union players (1176 player seasons). Results Match concussion incidence was 8.9/1000 h with over 50% occurring in the tackle. Subsequent incidence of any injury for players who returned to play in the same season following a diagnosed concussion (122/1000 h, 95% CI 106 to 141) was 60% higher (IRR 1.6, 95% CI 1.4 to 1.8) than for those who did not sustain a concussion (76/1000 h, 95% CI 72 to 80). Median time to next injury following return to play was shorter following concussion (53 days, 95% CI 41 to 64) than following non-concussive injuries (114 days, 95% CI 85 to 143). 38% of players reported recurrence of symptoms or failed to match their baseline neurocognitive test during the graduated return to play protocol. Summary and conclusions Players who returned to play in the same season after a diagnosed concussion had a 60% greater risk of time-loss injury than players without concussion. A substantial proportion of players reported recurrence of symptoms or failed to match baseline neurocognitive test scores during graduated return to play. These data pave the way for trials of more conservative and comprehensive graduated return to play protocols, with a greater focus on active rehabilitation. PMID:26626266

Quantifying the Benefit of Early Climate Change Mitigation in Avoiding Biodiversity Loss

Science.gov (United States)

Warren, R.; Vanderwal, J.; Price, J.; Welbergen, J.; Atkinson, I. M.; Ramirez-Villegas, J.; Osborn, T.; Shoo, L.; Jarvis, A.; Williams, S.; Lowe, J. A.

2014-12-01

Quantitative simulations of the global-scale benefits of climate change mitigation in avoiding biodiversity loss are presented. Previous studies have projected widespread global and regional impacts of climate change on biodiversity. However, these have focused on analysis of business-as-usual scenarios, with no explicit mitigation policy included. This study finds that early, stringent mitigation would avoid a large proportion of the impacts of climate change induced biodiversity loss projected for the 2080s. Furthermore, despite the large number of studies addressing extinction risks in particular species groups, few studies have explored the issue of potential range loss in common and widespread species. Our study is a comprehensive global scale analysis of 48,786 common and widespread species. We show that without climate change mitigation, 57+/-6% of the plants and 34+/-7% of the animals studied are likely to lose over 50% of their present climatic range by the 2080s. This estimate incorporates realistic, taxon-specific dispersal rates. With stringent mitigation, in which emissions peak in 2016 and are reduced by 5% annually thereafter, these losses are reduced by 60%. Furthermore, with stringent mitigation, global temperature rises more slowly, allowing an additional three decades for biodiversity to adapt to a temperature rise of 2C above pre-industrial levels. The work also shows that even with mitigation not all the impacts can now be avoided, and ecosystems and biodiversity generally has a very limited capacity to adapt. Delay in mitigation substantially reduces the percentage of impacts that can be avoided, for example if emissions do not peak until 2030, the percentage of losses that can be avoided declines to 40%. Since even small declines in common and widespread species can disrupt ecosystem function and services, these results indicate that without mitigation, globally widespread losses in ecosystem service provision are to be expected.

The relationship between neonatal hyperbilirubinemia and sensorineural hearing loss.

Science.gov (United States)

Corujo-Santana, Cándido; Falcón-González, Juan Carlos; Borkoski-Barreiro, Silvia Andrea; Pérez-Plasencia, Daniel; Ramos-Macías, Ángel

2015-01-01

Severe jaundice that requires exchange transfusion has become a relatively rare situation today. About 60% of full term neonates and 80% of premature ones will suffer from jaundice within the first week of life. Hyperbilirubinemia at birth is a risk factor associated with hearing loss that is usually further linked to other factors that might have an effect on hearing synergistically. This study aimed to identify the relationship between hyperbilirubinemia at birth as a risk factor for sensorineural hearing loss in children born at Complejo Hospitalario Universitario Insular Materno-Infantil de Gran Canaria, in the 2007-2011 period. This was a retrospective study of 796 newborns that had hyperbilirubinemia at birth, using transient evoked otoacoustic emissions and evoked auditory brainstem response. Hundred eighty-five newborns (23.24%) were referred for evoked auditory brainstem response. Hearing loss was diagnosed for 35 (4.39%): 18 neonates (51.43%) with conductive hearing loss and 17 (48.57%) with sensorineural hearing loss, 3 of which were diagnosed as bilateral profound hearing loss. Half of the children had other risk factors associated, the most frequent being exposure to ototoxic medications. The percentage of children diagnosed with sensorineural hearing loss that suffered hyperbilirubinemia at birth is higher than for the general population. Of those diagnosed, none had levels of indirect bilirubin≥20mg/dl, only 47% had hyperbilirubinemia at birth as a risk factor and 53% had another auditory risk factor associated. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L.U. and Sociedad Española de Otorrinolaringología y Patología Cérvico-Facial. All rights reserved.

Effect of intermittent versus continuous energy restriction on weight loss, maintenance and cardiometabolic risk: A randomized 1-year trial.

Science.gov (United States)

Sundfør, T M; Svendsen, M; Tonstad, S

2018-07-01

Long-term adherence to conventional weight-loss diets is limited while intermittent fasting has risen in popularity. We compared the effects of intermittent versus continuous energy restriction on weight loss, maintenance and cardiometabolic risk factors in adults with abdominal obesity and ≥1 additional component of metabolic syndrome. In total 112 participants (men [50%] and women [50%]) aged 21-70 years with BMI 30-45 kg/m 2 (mean 35.2 [SD 3.7]) were randomized to intermittent or continuous energy restriction. A 6-month weight-loss phase including 10 visits with dieticians was followed by a 6-month maintenance phase without additional face-to-face counselling. The intermittent energy restriction group was advised to consume 400/600 kcal (female/male) on two non-consecutive days. Based on dietary records both groups reduced energy intake by ∼26-28%. Weight loss was similar among participants in the intermittent and continuous energy restriction groups (8.0 kg [SD 6.5] versus 9.0 kg [SD 7.1]; p = 0.6). There were favorable improvements in waist circumference, blood pressure, triglycerides and HDL-cholesterol with no difference between groups. Weight regain was minimal and similar between the intermittent and continuous energy restriction groups (1.1 kg [SD 3.8] versus 0.4 kg [SD 4.0]; p = 0.6). Intermittent restriction participants reported higher hunger scores than continuous restriction participants on a subjective numeric rating scale (4.7 [SD 2.2] vs 3.6 [SD 2.2]; p = 0.002). Both intermittent and continuous energy restriction resulted in similar weight loss, maintenance and improvements in cardiovascular risk factors after one year. However, feelings of hunger may be more pronounced during intermittent energy restriction. www.clinicaltrials.govNCT02480504. Copyright © 2018 The Italian Society of Diabetology, the Italian Society for the Study of Atherosclerosis, the Italian Society of Human Nutrition, and the Department of Clinical Medicine

Risk, Uncertainty, and Entrepreneurship

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Koudstaal, Martin; Sloof, Randolph; Van Praag, Mirjam

2016-01-01

21288). The results indicate that entrepreneurs perceive themselves as less risk averse than managers and employees, in line with common wisdom. However, when using experimental incentivized measures, the differences are subtler. Entrepreneurs are only found to be unique in their lower degree of loss...... aversion, and not in their risk or ambiguity aversion. This combination of results might be explained by our finding that perceived risk attitude is not only correlated to risk aversion but also to loss aversion. Overall, we therefore suggest using a broader definition of risk that captures this unique...... feature of entrepreneurs: their willingness to risk losses....

Farmers' Perceptions of Rice Postharvest Losses in Eastern

African Journals Online (AJOL)

User

in terms of food availability and income will have strong intention to take up new ... In the two districts, farmers grow a variety of food and cash crops. ... the survey were analyzed using Statistical Product for Service Solution (SPSS) ..... substantially reduce these losses, however they could not afford to purchase/hire a.

Multiple challenges of risk management in EU credit institutions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Constantinescu, A.

2011-01-01

Full Text Available This paper is intended to be a significant insight into risk management issues by describing the main types of such risks and by providing management and evaluation procedures of significant risks into some active banking companies in Romania. In times of crisis, risk management in the banking system has a greater importance than in the normal economic times. The 2011 was a year in which Romania has been hit by the repercussions of the international economic crisis. Using strategies against risks, implementing procedures to monitor and control risks, risk assessment and quantification can substantially reduce the financial losses of a company or those of a financial institution. Risk management is an integral part of all decision making and business processes from credit institutions, its purpose being to protect their sustainable development. The innovations on the financial market, the internationalization of the specific operations, and the pressure of the competition are just a few arguments that impose a permanent supervision of the general and specific risks. This is the main reason why is compulsory to find new methods of managing risks, to keep in consideration the identification, evaluation of the management and the control of the banking system and of each bank.

31 CFR 50.53 - Loss certifications.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 31 Money and Finance: Treasury 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Loss certifications. 50.53 Section 50.53 Money and Finance: Treasury Office of the Secretary of the Treasury TERRORISM RISK INSURANCE... Treasury, that includes basic information about each underlying insured loss. For purposes of this section...

Individual Property Risk Management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael S. Finke

2010-01-01

Full Text Available This paper reviews household property risk management and estimates normatively optimal choice under theoretical assumptions. Although risk retention limits are common in the financial planning industry, estimates of optimal risk retention that include both financial and human wealth far exceed limits commonly recommended. Households appear to frame property losses differently from other wealth losses leading to wealth-reducing, excess risk transfer. Possible theoretical explanations for excess sensitivity to loss are reviewed. Differences between observed and optimal risk management imply a large potential gain from improved choice.

Reducing security risk using data loss prevention technology.

Science.gov (United States)

Beeskow, John

2015-11-01

Data loss/leakage protection (DLP) technology seeks to improve data security by answering three fundamental questions: > Where are confidential data stored? > Who is accessing the information? > How are data being handled?

The Effects of Weight Perception on Adolescents’ Weight-Loss Intentions and Behaviors: Evidence from the Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance Survey

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maoyong Fan

2015-11-01

Full Text Available The objective of this study was to examine the correlation between self-perception of being overweight and weight loss intentions, eating and exercise behaviors, as well as extreme weight-loss strategies for U.S. adolescents. This study uses 50,241 observations from the Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance Survey (YRBSS 2001–2009, which were nationally representative sample of 9th- through 12th-grade students in both public and private schools in the US. This study finds that, irrespective of the weight status base on self-reported weight and height, adolescents who perceive themselves as overweight have a stronger intention to lose weight, but do not develop better eating and exercise habits, compared with their counterparts of same gender and reported weight status. Normal-weight adolescents, if they perceive themselves as overweight, are more likely to engage in health-compromising weight-loss methods. This study shows that it is critical to transform weight-loss intentions into actual behaviors among overweight/obese adolescents and improve the efficacy of behavioral interventions against childhood obesity. It also highlights the need of establishing a correct perception of body weight among normal weight adolescents to curb extreme weight-loss methods.

Trends in worker hearing loss by industry sector, 1981-2010.

Science.gov (United States)

Masterson, Elizabeth A; Deddens, James A; Themann, Christa L; Bertke, Stephen; Calvert, Geoffrey M

2015-04-01

The purpose of this study was to estimate the incidence and prevalence of hearing loss for noise-exposed U.S. workers by industry sector and 5-year time period, covering 30 years. Audiograms for 1.8 million workers from 1981-2010 were examined. Incidence and prevalence were estimated by industry sector and time period. The adjusted risk of incident hearing loss within each time period and industry sector as compared with a reference time period was also estimated. The adjusted risk for incident hearing loss decreased over time when all industry sectors were combined. However, the risk remained high for workers in Healthcare and Social Assistance, and the prevalence was consistently high for Mining and Construction workers. While progress has been made in reducing the risk of incident hearing loss within most industry sectors, additional efforts are needed within Mining, Construction and Healthcare and Social Assistance. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Net-Zero Building Technologies Create Substantial Energy Savings -

Science.gov (United States)

only an estimated 1% of commercial buildings are built to net-zero energy criteria. One reason for this Continuum Magazine | NREL Net-Zero Building Technologies Create Substantial Energy Savings Net -Zero Building Technologies Create Substantial Energy Savings Researchers work to package and share step

The effect of prophylactic intravenous tranexamic acid on blood loss after vaginal delivery in women at low risk of postpartum haemorrhage: a double-blind randomised controlled trial.

Science.gov (United States)

Mirghafourvand, Mojgan; Mohammad-Alizadeh, Sakineh; Abbasalizadeh, Fatemeh; Shirdel, Mina

2015-02-01

To determine the effect of prophylactic tranexamic acid (TA) on calculated and measured blood loss after vaginal delivery in women at low risk of postpartum haemorrhage. In this double-blind randomised controlled trial, 120 women with a singleton pregnancy were randomly allocated to receive either one gram intravenous TA or placebo in addition to 10 IU oxytocin after delivery of the fetus. Calculated blood loss was determined based on haematocrit before delivery and 12-24 h postdelivery. The quantity of blood loss was measured during two time periods: from delivery of the fetus to placental expulsion and from placental expulsion to the end of the second hour after childbirth. The mean (SD) calculated total blood loss (519 (320) vs 659 (402) mL, P = 0.036) and measured blood loss from placental delivery to 2 h postpartum (69 (39) vs 108 (53) mL, P  1000 mL was lower in the TA group (7% vs 18%, P = 0.048). Prophylactic TA reduces blood loss after vaginal delivery in women with a low risk of postpartum haemorrhage. The prophylactic use of TA may reduce blood loss complications and enhance maternal health. © 2015 The Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists.

Hidden blood loss after surgery for hip fracture

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Foss, N B; Kehlet, H

2006-01-01

Our aim was to determine the total blood loss associated with surgery for fracture of the hip and to identify risk factors for increased blood loss. We prospectively studied 546 patients with hip fracture. The total blood loss was calculated on the basis of the haemoglobin difference, the number...

Timing of pregnancy, postpartum risk of virologic failure and loss to follow-up among HIV-positive women.

Science.gov (United States)

Onoya, Dorina; Sineke, Tembeka; Brennan, Alana T; Long, Lawrence; Fox, Matthew P

2017-07-17

We assessed the association between the timing of pregnancy with the risk of postpartum virologic failure and loss from HIV care in South Africa. This is a retrospective cohort study of 6306 HIV-positive women aged 15-49 at antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation, initiated on ART between January 2004 and December 2013 in Johannesburg, South Africa. The incidence of virologic failure (two consecutive viral load measurements of >1000 copies/ml) and loss to follow-up (>3 months late for a visit) during 24 months postpartum were assessed using Cox proportional hazards modelling. The rate of postpartum virologic failure was higher following an incident pregnancy on ART [adjusted hazard ratio 1.8, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.1-2.7] than among women who initiated ART during pregnancy. This difference was sustained among women with CD4 cell count less than 350 cells/μl at delivery (adjusted hazard ratio 1.8, 95% CI: 1.1-3.0). Predictors of postpartum virologic failure were being viremic, longer time on ART, being 25 or less years old and low CD4 cell count and anaemia at delivery, as well as initiating ART on stavudine-containing or abacavir-containing regimen. There was no difference postpartum loss to follow-up rates between the incident pregnancies group (hazard ratio 0.9, 95% CI: 0.7-1.1) and those who initiated ART in pregnancy. The risk of virologic failure remains high among postpartum women, particularly those who conceive on ART. The results highlight the need to provide adequate support for HIV-positive women with fertility intention after ART initiation and to strengthen monitoring and retention efforts for postpartum women to sustain the benefits of ART.

A predictive model of the association between gene polymorphism and the risk of noise-induced hearing loss caused by gunfire noise

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ben-Chih Yuan

2012-01-01

Conclusion: In this study, we found that although loud noise could usually result in hearing damage, the clinical characteristics of hearing loss were irrelevant to gunfire noise. The gene polymorphisms provide predictors for us to evaluate the risk of NIHL prior to gunshot training.

More than 30 per cent energy savings possible with LEDs in gerbera : substantial energy savings and little loss in production

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Helm, van der F.P.M.

2015-01-01

By installing LED-lighting and limiting it to 80 instead of 100 μmol gerbera growers can save 30 per cent on energy without any great loss in production, according to research. Light integration and interlighting don’t yet deliver any savings.

Transmission loss of double wall panels containing Helmholtz resonators

Science.gov (United States)

Prydz, R. A.; Kuntz, H. L.; Morrow, D. L.; Wirt, L. S.

Data and an analysis are presented on the use of Helholtz resonators in double wall panels (i.e., aircraft sidewalls). Several wall materials and resonator configurations were tested, and the resonators were found to substantially increase the transmission loss of the double wall system at the tuning frequency.

Loss of metabolites from monkey striatum during PET with FDOPA

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cumming, P; Munk, O L; Doudet, D

2001-01-01

diffusion of [(18)F]fluorodopamine metabolites from brain. Consequently, time-radioactivity recordings of striatum are progressively influenced by metabolite loss. In linear analyses, the net blood-brain clearance of FDOPA (K(D)(i), ml g(-1) min(-1)) can be corrected for this loss by the elimination rate...... constant k(Lin)(cl) (min(-1)). Similarly, the DOPA decarboxylation rate constant (k(D)(3), min(-1)) calculated by compartmental analysis can also be corrected for metabolite loss by the elimination rate constant k(DA)(9) (min(-1)). To compare the two methods, we calculated the two elimination rate...... of the estimate was substantially improved upon correction for metabolite loss. The rate constants for metabolite loss were higher in MPTP-lesioned monkey striatum than in normal striatum. The high correlation between individual estimates of k(Lin)(cl) and k(DA)(9) suggests that both rate constants reveal loss...

Water-loss dehydration and aging.

Science.gov (United States)

Hooper, Lee; Bunn, Diane; Jimoh, Florence O; Fairweather-Tait, Susan J

2014-01-01

This review defines water-loss and salt-loss dehydration. For older people serum osmolality appears the most appropriate gold standard for diagnosis of water-loss dehydration, but clear signs of early dehydration have not been developed. In older adults, lower muscle mass, reduced kidney function, physical and cognitive disabilities, blunted thirst, and polypharmacy all increase dehydration risk. Cross-sectional studies suggest a water-loss dehydration prevalence of 20-30% in this population. Water-loss dehydration is associated with higher mortality, morbidity and disability in older people, but evidence is still needed that this relationship is causal. There are a variety of ways we may be able to help older people reduce their risk of dehydration by recognising that they are not drinking enough, and being helped to drink more. Strategies to increase fluid intake in residential care homes include identifying and overcoming individual and institutional barriers to drinking, such as being worried about not reaching the toilet in time, physical inability to make or to reach drinks, and reduced social drinking and drinking pleasure. Research needs are discussed, some of which will be addressed by the FP7-funded NU-AGE (New dietary strategies addressing the specific needs of elderly population for a healthy ageing in Europe) trial. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Internet message boards for pregnancy loss: who's on-line and why?

Science.gov (United States)

Gold, Katherine J; Boggs, Martha E; Mugisha, Emeline; Palladino, Christie Lancaster

2012-01-01

Pregnancy loss is common, but its significance is often minimized by family, friends, and the community, leaving bereaved parents with unmet need for support. This study sought to describe demographics, usage patterns, and perceived benefits for women participating in Internet pregnancy loss support groups. We requested permission to post an anonymous Internet survey on large and active United States Internet message boards for women with miscarriages and stillbirths. The study purposefully oversampled stillbirth sites and included both closed- and open-ended questions. The University of Michigan Institutional Review Board approved the study. Closed-ended questions were summarized and evaluated with bivariate analysis. We performed a qualitative analysis of open-ended data using an iterative coding process to identify key themes. Of 62 sites queried, 15 granted permission to post the survey on 18 different message boards. We collected 1,039 surveys, of which 1,006 were complete and eligible for analysis. Women were typically white, well educated, and frequent users. They noted message boards helped them to feel less isolated in their loss and grief and they appreciated unique aspects of Internet communication such as convenience, access, anonymity, and privacy. Pregnancy loss message boards are an important aspect of support for many bereaved mothers. African-American women seem to be substantially underrepresented on-line despite being at higher risk for stillbirth. Internet message boards serve a unique function in providing support for women with miscarriage and stillbirth. The benefits are often significantly different from those encountered in traditional face-to-face bereavement support. Copyright © 2012 Jacobs Institute of Women's Health. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Self-amplified Amazon forest loss due to vegetation-atmosphere feedbacks

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Zemp, Delphine Clara; Schleussner, Carl Friedrich; Barbosa, Henrique M J; Hirota, Marina; Montade, Vincent; Sampaio, Gilvan; Staal, Arie; Wang-Erlandsson, L.; Rammig, Anja

2017-01-01

Reduced rainfall increases the risk of forest dieback, while in return forest loss might intensify regional droughts. The consequences of this vegetation-atmosphere feedback for the stability of the Amazon forest are still unclear. Here we show that the risk of self-amplified Amazon forest loss

Communicating Earthquake Preparedness: The Influence of Induced Mood, Perceived Risk, and Gain or Loss Frames on Homeowners' Attitudes Toward General Precautionary Measures for Earthquakes.

Science.gov (United States)

Marti, Michèle; Stauffacher, Michael; Matthes, Jörg; Wiemer, Stefan

2018-04-01

Despite global efforts to reduce seismic risk, actual preparedness levels remain universally low. Although earthquake-resistant building design is the most efficient way to decrease potential losses, its application is not a legal requirement across all earthquake-prone countries and even if, often not strictly enforced. Risk communication encouraging homeowners to take precautionary measures is therefore an important means to enhance a country's earthquake resilience. Our study illustrates that specific interactions of mood, perceived risk, and frame type significantly affect homeowners' attitudes toward general precautionary measures for earthquakes. The interdependencies of the variables mood, risk information, and frame type were tested in an experimental 2 × 2 × 2 design (N = 156). Only in combination and not on their own, these variables effectively influence attitudes toward general precautionary measures for earthquakes. The control variables gender, "trait anxiety" index, and alteration of perceived risk adjust the effect. Overall, the group with the strongest attitudes toward general precautionary actions for earthquakes are homeowners with induced negative mood who process high-risk information and gain-framed messages. However, the conditions comprising induced negative mood, low-risk information and loss-frame and induced positive mood, low-risk information and gain-framed messages both also significantly influence homeowners' attitudes toward general precautionary measures for earthquakes. These results mostly confirm previous findings in the field of health communication. For practitioners, our study emphasizes that carefully compiled communication measures are a powerful means to encourage precautionary attitudes among homeowners, especially for those with an elevated perceived risk. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Job loss and broken partnerships: do the number of stressful life events influence the risk of ischemic heart disease in men?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kriegbaum, Margit; Christensen, Ulla; Lund, Rikke

2008-01-01

% confidence interval 1.02-1.85). We found no indication of dose-response relationship between number of events and risk of IHD. CONCLUSION: In this study of middle-aged men, we found only weak support for the effect of psychosocial stress on IHD measured with register based life events; we found that IHD...... was associated with broken partnerships but not with job loss. We did not find that the risk of incident IHD varied with the number of these stressful life events....

Early-treatment weight loss predicts 6-month weight loss in women with obesity and depression: implications for stepped care.

Science.gov (United States)

Waring, Molly E; Schneider, Kristin L; Appelhans, Bradley M; Busch, Andrew M; Whited, Matthew C; Rodrigues, Stephanie; Lemon, Stephenie C; Pagoto, Sherry L

2014-05-01

Some adults with comorbid depression and obesity respond well to lifestyle interventions while others have poor outcomes. The objective of this study was to evaluate whether early-treatment weight loss progress predicts clinically significant 6-month weight loss among women with obesity and depression. We conducted a secondary analysis of data from 75 women with obesity and depression who received a standard lifestyle intervention. Relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for achieving ≥5% weight loss by 6 months were calculated based on whether they achieved ≥1 lb/week weight loss in weeks 2-8. Among those on target at week 3, we examined potential subsequent time points at which weight loss progress might identify additional individuals at risk for treatment failure. At week 2, women who averaged ≥1 lb/week loss were twice as likely to achieve 5% weight loss by 6 months than those who did not (RR=2.40; 95% CI: 2.32-4.29); weight loss at weeks 3-8 was similarly predictive (RRs=2.02-3.20). Examining weight loss progress at week 3 and subsequently at a time point during weeks 4-8, 52-67% of participants were not on target with their weight loss, and those on target were 2-3 times as likely to achieve 5% weight loss by 6 months (RRs=1.82-2.92). Weight loss progress as early as week 2 of treatment predicts weight loss outcomes for women with comorbid obesity and depression, which supports the feasibility of developing stepped care interventions that adjust treatment intensity based on early progress in this population. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Recovery of Abnormal ABR in Neonates and Infants at Risk of Hearing Loss

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ioannis Psarommatis

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this retrospective study is to present the clinical experience of a single institution on the recovery of ABR thresholds in a large population of neonates and infants at risk of hearing loss. Potential prognostic factors associated with this phenomenon were also investigated. Out of 2248 high risk infants, 384 had abnormal ABR at initial hearing evaluation and 168 of them had absent ABR or a threshold ≥80 dBnHL. From this subgroup, a significant percentage showed complete or partial recovery on reexamination (32.7% and 9.3%, resp., performed 4–6 months later. The presence of normal otoacoustic emissions was associated with the ABR restoration on reexamination. Moreover, the very young age at the initial hearing screening seems to be related to higher probabilities of false positive ABR. The potential recovery of hearing in HR infants raises concerns about the very early cochlear implantation in HR infants less than one year. Such a treatment modality should be decided cautiously and only after obtaining valid and stable objective and subjective hearing thresholds. This holds especially true for infants showing an auditory neuropathy profile, as they presented a much greater probability of ABR recovery.

Divergence and Convergence of Risky Decision Making Across Prospective Gains and Losses: Preferences and Strategies

Science.gov (United States)

Kurnianingsih, Yoanna A.; Mullette-Gillman, O'Dhaniel A.

2015-01-01

People choose differently when facing potential gains than when facing potential losses. Clear gross differences in decision making between gains and losses have been empirically demonstrated in numerous studies (e.g., framing effect, risk preference, loss aversion). However, theories maintain that there are strong underlying connections (e.g., reflection effect). We investigated the relationship between gains and losses decision making, examining risk preferences, and choice strategies (the reliance on option information) using a monetary gamble task with interleaved trials. For risk preferences, participants were on average risk averse in the gains domain and risk neutral/seeking in the losses domain. We specifically tested for a theoretically hypothesized correlation between individual risk preferences across the gains and losses domains (the reflection effect), but found no significant relationship in the predicted direction. Interestingly, despite the lack of reflected risk preferences, cross-domain risk preferences were still informative of individual choice behavior. For choice strategies, in both domains participants relied more heavily on the maximizing strategy than the satisficing strategy, with increased reliance on the maximizing strategy in the losses domain. Additionally, while there is no mathematical reliance between the risk preference and strategy metrics, within both domains there were significant relationships between risk preferences and strategies—the more participants relied upon the maximizing strategy the more risk neutral they were (equating value and utility maximization). These results demonstrate the complexity of gains and losses decision making, indicating the apparent contradiction that their underlying cognitive/neural processes are both dissociable and overlapping. PMID:26733779

Divergence and Convergence of Risky Decision Making Across Prospective Gains and Losses: Preferences and Strategies.

Science.gov (United States)

Kurnianingsih, Yoanna A; Mullette-Gillman, O'Dhaniel A

2015-01-01

People choose differently when facing potential gains than when facing potential losses. Clear gross differences in decision making between gains and losses have been empirically demonstrated in numerous studies (e.g., framing effect, risk preference, loss aversion). However, theories maintain that there are strong underlying connections (e.g., reflection effect). We investigated the relationship between gains and losses decision making, examining risk preferences, and choice strategies (the reliance on option information) using a monetary gamble task with interleaved trials. For risk preferences, participants were on average risk averse in the gains domain and risk neutral/seeking in the losses domain. We specifically tested for a theoretically hypothesized correlation between individual risk preferences across the gains and losses domains (the reflection effect), but found no significant relationship in the predicted direction. Interestingly, despite the lack of reflected risk preferences, cross-domain risk preferences were still informative of individual choice behavior. For choice strategies, in both domains participants relied more heavily on the maximizing strategy than the satisficing strategy, with increased reliance on the maximizing strategy in the losses domain. Additionally, while there is no mathematical reliance between the risk preference and strategy metrics, within both domains there were significant relationships between risk preferences and strategies-the more participants relied upon the maximizing strategy the more risk neutral they were (equating value and utility maximization). These results demonstrate the complexity of gains and losses decision making, indicating the apparent contradiction that their underlying cognitive/neural processes are both dissociable and overlapping.

Divergence and convergence of risky decision making across prospective gains and losses: preferences and strategies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yoanna Arlina Kurnianingsih

2015-12-01

Full Text Available People choose differently when facing potential gains than when facing potential losses. Clear gross differences in decision making between gains and losses have been empirically demonstrated in numerous studies (e.g. framing effect, risk preference, loss aversion. However, theories maintain that there are strong underlying connections (e.g. reflection effect. We investigated the relationship between gains and losses decision making, examining risk preferences and choice strategies (the reliance on option information using a monetary gamble task with interleaved trials. For risk preferences, participants were on average risk averse in the gains domain and risk neutral/seeking in the losses domain. We specifically tested for a theoretically hypothesized correlation between individual risk preferences across the gains and losses domains (the reflection effect, but found no significant relationship in the predicted direction. Interestingly, despite the lack of reflected risk preferences, cross-domain risk preferences were still informative of individual choice behavior. For choice strategies, in both domains participants relied more heavily on the maximizing strategy than the satisficing strategy, with increased reliance on the maximizing strategy in the losses domain. Additionally, while there is no mathematical reliance between the risk preference and strategy metrics, within both domains there were significant relationships between risk preferences and strategies – the more participants relied upon the maximizing strategy the more risk neutral they were (equating value and utility maximization. These results demonstrate the complexity of gains and losses decision making, indicating the apparent contradiction that their underlying cognitive/neural processes are both dissociable and overlapping.

Tsunami Loss Assessment For Istanbul

Science.gov (United States)

Hancilar, Ufuk; Cakti, Eser; Zulfikar, Can; Demircioglu, Mine; Erdik, Mustafa

2010-05-01

Tsunami risk and loss assessment incorporating with the inundation mapping in Istanbul and the Marmara Sea region are presented in this study. The city of Istanbul is under the threat of earthquakes expected to originate from the Main Marmara branch of North Anatolian Fault System. In the Marmara region the earthquake hazard reached very high levels with 2% annual probability of occurrence of a magnitude 7+ earthquake on the Main Marmara Fault. Istanbul is the biggest city of Marmara region as well as of Turkey with its almost 12 million inhabitants. It is home to 40% of the industrial facilities in Turkey and operates as the financial and trade hub of the country. Past earthquakes have evidenced that the structural reliability of residential and industrial buildings, as well as that of lifelines including port and harbor structures in the country is questionable. These facts make the management of earthquake risks imperative for the reduction of physical and socio-economic losses. The level of expected tsunami hazard in Istanbul is low as compared to earthquake hazard. Yet the assets at risk along the shores of the city make a thorough assessment of tsunami risk imperative. Important residential and industrial centres exist along the shores of the Marmara Sea. Particularly along the northern and eastern shores we see an uninterrupted settlement pattern with industries, businesses, commercial centres and ports and harbours in between. Following the inundation maps resulting from deterministic and probabilistic tsunami hazard analyses, vulnerability and risk analyses are presented and the socio-economic losses are estimated. This study is part of EU-supported FP6 project ‘TRANSFER'.

Stratospheric cooling and polar ozone loss due to H2 emissions of a global hydrogen economy

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Feck, T.; Grooß, J.-U.; Riese, M.; Vogel, B.

2009-04-01

"Green" hydrogen is seen as a major element of the future energy supply to reduce greenhouse gas emissions substantially. However, due to the possible interactions of hydrogen (H2) with other atmospheric constituents there is a need to analyse the implications of additional atmospheric H2 that could result from hydrogen leakage of a global hydrogen infrastructure. Emissions of molecular H2 can occur along the whole hydrogen process chain which increase the tropospheric H2 burden. Across the tropical tropopause H2 reaches the stratosphere where it is oxidised and forms water vapour (H2O). This causes increased IR-emissions into space and hence a cooling of the stratosphere. Both effects, the increase of stratospheric H2O and the cooling, enhances the potential of chlorine activation on liquid sulfate aerosol and polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs), which increase polar ozone destruction. Hence a global hydrogen economy could provoke polar ozone loss and could lead to a substantial delay of the current projected recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer. Our investigations show that even if 90% of the current global fossil primary energy input could be replaced by hydrogen and approximately 9.5% of the product gas would leak to the atmosphere, the ozone loss would be increased between 15 to 26 Dobson Units (DU) if the stratospheric CFC loading would retain unchanged. A consistency check of the used approximation methods with the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS) shows that this additional ozone loss can probably be treated as an upper limit. Towards more realistic future H2 leakage rate assumptions (< 3%) the additional ozone loss would be rather small (? 10 DU). However, in all cases the full damage would only occur if stratospheric CFC-levels would retain unchanged. Due to the CFC-prohibition as a result of the Montreal Protocol the forecasts suggest a decline of the stratospheric CFC loading about 50% until 2050. In this case our calculations

Loss of metabolites from monkey striatum during PET with FDOPA

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cumming, P; Munk, O L; Doudet, D

2001-01-01

constants using data recorded during 240 min of FDOPA circulation in normal monkeys and in monkeys with unilateral 1-methyl-4-phenyl-1,2,3,6-tetrahydropyridine (MPTP) lesions. Use of the extended models increased the magnitudes of K(D)(i) and k(D)(3) in striatum; in the case of k(D)(3), variance...... of the estimate was substantially improved upon correction for metabolite loss. The rate constants for metabolite loss were higher in MPTP-lesioned monkey striatum than in normal striatum. The high correlation between individual estimates of k(Lin)(cl) and k(DA)(9) suggests that both rate constants reveal loss...

Randomized comparison of a multidisciplinary job-retention vocational rehabilitation program with usual outpatient care in patients with chronic arthritis at risk for job loss.

Science.gov (United States)

de Buck, Petronella D M; le Cessie, Saskia; van den Hout, Wilbert B; Peeters, Andreas J; Ronday, Herman K; Westedt, Marie-Louise; Breedveld, Ferdinand C; Vliet Vlieland, Theodora P M

2005-10-15

Work disability is a major consequence of inflammatory rheumatic conditions. Evidence regarding the effectiveness of interventions aimed at the prevention or reduction of work disability in rheumatic diseases is limited. We conducted a randomized controlled trial to investigate the effectiveness of a multidisciplinary job-retention vocational rehabilitation (VR) program in patients with a rheumatic condition who were at risk for job loss. A total of 140 patients with a chronic rheumatic condition were randomly assigned to either a multidisciplinary job-retention VR program (n = 74) or usual outpatient care (UC) (n = 66). Patients in the VR group were assessed and guided by a multidisciplinary team, whereas patients in the UC group received care as initiated by their rheumatologist, supplemented with written information. The main outcome measure was the occurrence of job loss (complete work disability or unemployment); additional outcome measures included job satisfaction, pain, functional status, emotional status, and quality of life. There was no difference between the 2 groups regarding the proportion of patients having lost their job at any time point, with 24% and 23% of the patients in the VR and UC groups, respectively, having lost their job after 24 months. Over the total period of 24 months, patients in the VR group had a significantly greater improvement of the fatigue visual analog scale and of emotional status (all P values job-retention VR program did not reduce the risk of job loss but improved fatigue and mental health in patients with chronic rheumatic diseases at risk for job loss.

Probabilistic, Multivariable Flood Loss Modeling on the Mesoscale with BT-FLEMO.

Science.gov (United States)

Kreibich, Heidi; Botto, Anna; Merz, Bruno; Schröter, Kai

2017-04-01

Flood loss modeling is an important component for risk analyses and decision support in flood risk management. Commonly, flood loss models describe complex damaging processes by simple, deterministic approaches like depth-damage functions and are associated with large uncertainty. To improve flood loss estimation and to provide quantitative information about the uncertainty associated with loss modeling, a probabilistic, multivariable Bagging decision Tree Flood Loss Estimation MOdel (BT-FLEMO) for residential buildings was developed. The application of BT-FLEMO provides a probability distribution of estimated losses to residential buildings per municipality. BT-FLEMO was applied and validated at the mesoscale in 19 municipalities that were affected during the 2002 flood by the River Mulde in Saxony, Germany. Validation was undertaken on the one hand via a comparison with six deterministic loss models, including both depth-damage functions and multivariable models. On the other hand, the results were compared with official loss data. BT-FLEMO outperforms deterministic, univariable, and multivariable models with regard to model accuracy, although the prediction uncertainty remains high. An important advantage of BT-FLEMO is the quantification of prediction uncertainty. The probability distribution of loss estimates by BT-FLEMO well represents the variation range of loss estimates of the other models in the case study. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Workers' compensation loss prevention representative contact and risk of lost-time injury in construction policyholders.

Science.gov (United States)

Schofield, Katherine E; Alexander, Bruce H; Gerberich, Susan G; MacLehose, Richard F

2017-09-01

Insurance loss prevention (LP) representatives have access and contact with businesses and employees to provide targeted safety and health resources. Construction firms, especially those smaller in size, are a high-risk population. This research evaluated the association between LP rep contact and risk for lost-time injuries in construction policyholders. Workers' compensation data were utilized to track LP rep contact with policyholders and incidence of lost-time injury over time. Survival analysis with repeated events modeling calculated hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). Compared no LP contact, one contact was associated with a 27% reduction of risk (HR=0.73, CI=0.65-0.82), two with a 41% (HR=0.59, CI=0.51-0.68), and three or more contacts with a 28% reduction of risk (HR=0.72, CI=0.65-0.81). LP reps appear to be a valuable partner in efforts to reduce injury burden. Their presence or contact with policyholders is consistent with reduction in overall incidence of lost-time injuries. Reduction in lost-time injuries, resulting in reduced workers' compensation costs for policyholders and insurance companies, builds a business-case for safety and injury prevention. LP reps are often a low or no-cost benefit for insurance policyholders and may be an important injury prevention resource for small firms and/or those with lack of safety resources and staff. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Regulator Loss Functions and Hierarchical Modeling for Safety Decision Making.

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Hatfield, Laura A; Baugh, Christine M; Azzone, Vanessa; Normand, Sharon-Lise T

2017-07-01

Regulators must act to protect the public when evidence indicates safety problems with medical devices. This requires complex tradeoffs among risks and benefits, which conventional safety surveillance methods do not incorporate. To combine explicit regulator loss functions with statistical evidence on medical device safety signals to improve decision making. In the Hospital Cost and Utilization Project National Inpatient Sample, we select pediatric inpatient admissions and identify adverse medical device events (AMDEs). We fit hierarchical Bayesian models to the annual hospital-level AMDE rates, accounting for patient and hospital characteristics. These models produce expected AMDE rates (a safety target), against which we compare the observed rates in a test year to compute a safety signal. We specify a set of loss functions that quantify the costs and benefits of each action as a function of the safety signal. We integrate the loss functions over the posterior distribution of the safety signal to obtain the posterior (Bayes) risk; the preferred action has the smallest Bayes risk. Using simulation and an analysis of AMDE data, we compare our minimum-risk decisions to a conventional Z score approach for classifying safety signals. The 2 rules produced different actions for nearly half of hospitals (45%). In the simulation, decisions that minimize Bayes risk outperform Z score-based decisions, even when the loss functions or hierarchical models are misspecified. Our method is sensitive to the choice of loss functions; eliciting quantitative inputs to the loss functions from regulators is challenging. A decision-theoretic approach to acting on safety signals is potentially promising but requires careful specification of loss functions in consultation with subject matter experts.

Does a vegan diet reduce risk for Parkinson's disease?

Science.gov (United States)

McCarty, M F

2001-09-01

Three recent case-control studies conclude that diets high in animal fat or cholesterol are associated with a substantial increase in risk for Parkinson's disease (PD); in contrast, fat of plant origin does not appear to increase risk. Whereas reported age-adjusted prevalence rates of PD tend to be relatively uniform throughout Europe and the Americas, sub-Saharan black Africans, rural Chinese, and Japanese, groups whose diets tend to be vegan or quasi-vegan, appear to enjoy substantially lower rates. Since current PD prevalence in African-Americans is little different from that in whites, environmental factors are likely to be responsible for the low PD risk in black Africans. In aggregate, these findings suggest that vegan diets may be notably protective with respect to PD. However, they offer no insight into whether saturated fat, compounds associated with animal fat, animal protein, or the integrated impact of the components of animal products mediates the risk associated with animal fat consumption. Caloric restriction has recently been shown to protect the central dopaminergic neurons of mice from neurotoxins, at least in part by induction of heat-shock proteins; conceivably, the protection afforded by vegan diets reflects a similar mechanism. The possibility that vegan diets could be therapeutically beneficial in PD, by slowing the loss of surviving dopaminergic neurons, thus retarding progression of the syndrome, may merit examination. Vegan diets could also be helpful to PD patients by promoting vascular health and aiding blood-brain barrier transport of L-dopa. Copyright 2001 Harcourt Publishers Ltd.

Risk, Uncertainty and Entrepreneurship

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Koudstaal, Martin; Sloof, Randolph; Van Praag, Mirjam

. Entrepreneurs are only found to be unique in their lower degree of loss aversion, and not in their risk or ambiguity aversion. This combination of results might be explained by our finding that perceived risk attitude is not only correlated to risk aversion but also to loss aversion. Overall, we therefore...... entrepreneurs to managers – a suitable comparison group – and employees (n = 2288). The results indicate that entrepreneurs perceive themselves as less risk averse than managers and employees, in line with common wisdom. However, when using experimental incentivized measures, the differences are subtler...... suggest using a broader definition of risk that captures this unique feature of entrepreneurs; their willingness to risk losses....

Social Skills in Preschool Children with Unilateral and Mild Bilateral Hearing Loss

Science.gov (United States)

Laugen, Nina J.; Jacobsen, Karl H.; Rieffe, Carolien; Wichstrøm, Lars

2017-01-01

Hearing loss may represent a risk for developing social skills difficulties; however, little is known about the potential risk resulting from unilateral or mild bilateral hearing loss (UMHL). We compared the social skills of 14 children with UMHL and 21 children with moderate to severe hearing loss (MSHL) with those of 123 children with typical…

Propionibacterium acnes in shoulder surgery: is loss of hair protective for infection?

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Hudek, Robert; Sommer, Frank; Abdelkawi, Ayman F; Kerwat, Martina; Müller, Hans-Helge; Gohlke, Frank

2016-06-01

Propionibacterium acnes (P acnes) has been linked to chronic infections in shoulder surgery. It was recently observed during first-time shoulder surgery in healthy patients at a rate between 36% and 56%. Male gender and the anterolateral approach were reported risk factors. Because the skin biology greatly differs, we aimed to correlate skin complaints with P acnes-positive intraoperative cultures from different tissue layer samples in patients undergoing shoulder surgery for the first time. Intraoperative samples (1 skin, 1 superficial, 1 deep tissue, and 1 control sample) from 112 patients (70 men, 42 women; aged 59.2 years) were cultured. The association between the presence of P acnes in the deep or superficial tissue, or both, and 10 items of a validated preoperative questionnaire for skin pathology was explored. The cultures were positive for P acnes in 38.4% (n = 43) of the cases. Skin samples were positive for P acnes in 8% (n = 9), superficial samples were positive in 23% (n = 26), and deep samples were positive in 30% (n = 34). Self-reported "loss of hair" was significantly negatively associated with the presence of P acnes in the superficial or deep tissue sample (P = .00028). Patients who report having "loss of hair" show fewer P acnes-positive cultures in intraoperative tissue samples taken during open shoulder surgery. Whether this subgroup is at a lesser risk for P acnes infections remains to be substantiated. Basic Science Study; Microbiology. Copyright © 2016 Journal of Shoulder and Elbow Surgery Board of Trustees. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

20 CFR 654.13 - Determination of areas of substantial unemployment.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... 20 Employees' Benefits 3 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Determination of areas of substantial unemployment. 654.13 Section 654.13 Employees' Benefits EMPLOYMENT AND TRAINING ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF... 10582 § 654.13 Determination of areas of substantial unemployment. An area of substantial unemployment...

Losses as ecological guides: minor losses lead to maximization and not to avoidance.

Science.gov (United States)

Yechiam, Eldad; Retzer, Matan; Telpaz, Ariel; Hochman, Guy

2015-06-01

Losses are commonly thought to result in a neuropsychological avoidance response. We suggest that losses also provide ecological guidance by increasing focus on the task at hand, and that this effect may override the avoidance response. This prediction was tested in a series of studies. In Study 1a we found that minor losses did not lead to an avoidance response. Instead, they guided participants to make advantageous choices (in terms of expected value) and to avoid disadvantageous choices. Moreover, losses were associated with less switching between options after the first block of exploration. In Study 1b we found that this effect was not simply a by-product of the increase in visual contrast with losses. In Study 1c we found that the effect of losses did not emerge when alternatives did not differ in their expected value but only in their risk level. In Study 2 we investigated the autonomic arousal dynamics associated with this behavioral pattern via pupillometric responses. The results showed increased pupil diameter following losses compared to gains. However, this increase was not associated with a tendency to avoid losses, but rather with a tendency to select more advantageously. These findings suggest that attention and reasoning processes induced by losses can out-weigh the influence of affective processes leading to avoidance. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Risk of hearing loss in children exposed to gentamicin for the treatment of sepsis in young infancy: A community based cohort study in pakistan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Iftikhar, U.; Ali, S.A.; Tikmani, S.S.; Zaidi, A.K.; Azam, S.I.; Saleem, S.

2013-01-01

Objective: To determine the safety of gentamicin when used in a community setting to treat neonatal sepsis. Methods: The study was conducted in peri-urban areas of Karachi from September 2009 to April 2010. The exposed group consisted of children 6 months to 3 years of age who were treated for sepsis during 0-2 months of age in the community, with a regimen that included gentamicin for at least five days. The control group included children from the same area who never received gentamicin. The outcome measure was hearing loss, which was assessed by Brainstem Evoked Response Audiometry. Results: Of the 255 children enrolled, 125 (49%) received gentamicin, while 130 (51%) were not exposed to gentamicin. Children in the gentamicin exposed group were not at increased risk for hearing loss compared to controls (n=30; 30.9% vs. n=33; 31.4%, RR 0.98; 95% CI: 0.60-1.61). Children with history of ear discharge (RR 1.7) and children with family history of deafness (RR 2.0) were more at risk for having hearing loss. Conclusion: No association was found between hearing loss and gentamicin exposure in a community setting for the management of sepsis in the first two months of life. (author)

An economic approach to 'losses and damages'

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roulleau, Thomas

2015-01-01

Given ever more greenhouse gas emissions, developing countries have recently placed the issue of 'losses and damages' on the bargaining table. The losses and damages ensuing from climate catastrophes depend on factors that are both planetary (extreme meteorological phenomena wherein climate change is a factor) and domestic (the exposure and vulnerability of populations). The Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage Associated with Climate Change Impacts was set up in 2013. Several developing countries are demanding that it become autonomous with its own funding. This demand does not seem justified scientifically or economically in the current context. Although economic losses owing to climate-related catastrophes have increased in recent decades, they are, as scientific studies have shown, due to increases in wealth and in the population's exposure and not to climate change as such. Furthermore, the aforementioned funding mechanism risks impeding efficient domestic actions for reducing a country's vulnerability and its population's exposure to climate-related risks

KIT Mutation and Loss of 14q May Be Sufficient for the Development of Clinically Symptomatic Very Low-Risk GIST.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Olaf Karl Klinke

Full Text Available The aim of this study was to determine the minimal set of genetic alterations required for the development of a very low risk clinically symptomatic gastro-intestinal stromal tumour within the stomach wall. We studied the genome of a very low-risk gastric gastro-intestinal stromal tumour by whole-genome sequencing, comparative genomic hybridisation and methylation profiling. The studied tumour harboured two typical genomic lesions: loss of the long arm of chromosome 14 and an activating mutation in exon 11 of KIT. Besides these genetic lesions, only two point mutations that may affect tumour progression were identified: A frame-shift deletion in RNF146 and a missense mutation in a zinc finger of ZNF407. Whilst the frameshift deletion in RNF146 seemed to be restricted to this particular tumour, a similar yet germline mutation in ZNF407 was found in a panel of 52 gastro-intestinal stromal tumours from different anatomical sites and different categories. Germline polymorphisms in the mitotic checkpoint proteins Aurora kinase A and BUB1 kinase B may have furthered tumour growth. The epigenetic profile of the tumour matches that of other KIT-mutant tumours. We have identified mutations in three genes and loss of the long arm of chromosome 14 as the so far minimal set of genetic abnormalities sufficient for the development of a very low risk clinically symptomatic gastric stromal tumour.

Global assessment of human losses due to earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Silva, Vitor; Jaiswal, Kishor; Weatherill, Graeme; Crowley, Helen

2014-01-01

Current studies have demonstrated a sharp increase in human losses due to earthquakes. These alarming levels of casualties suggest the need for large-scale investment in seismic risk mitigation, which, in turn, requires an adequate understanding of the extent of the losses, and location of the most affected regions. Recent developments in global and uniform datasets such as instrumental and historical earthquake catalogues, population spatial distribution and country-based vulnerability functions, have opened an unprecedented possibility for a reliable assessment of earthquake consequences at a global scale. In this study, a uniform probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) model was employed to derive a set of global seismic hazard curves, using the open-source software OpenQuake for seismic hazard and risk analysis. These results were combined with a collection of empirical fatality vulnerability functions and a population dataset to calculate average annual human losses at the country level. The results from this study highlight the regions/countries in the world with a higher seismic risk, and thus where risk reduction measures should be prioritized.

Assessing and Managing Knowledge Loss Risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dermarkar, Fred

2013-01-01

Summary: • Sustaining Design Basis Knowledge is a strategic need for long term safe and reliable operation; • Utilities need to manage knowledge in a systematic manner, based on identifying areas of risk, developing and implementing plans to mitigate the risk, and exercising oversight of those plans; • Approaches will differ depending upon organizational functions and needs; • Individual utility efforts are not sufficient: they need to be complemented by a larger scale infrastructure in the academic and research communities; • The Canadian nuclear industry has been collaborating to actively support and expand the academic infrastructure to sustain design basis knowledge; • KM initiatives require constant nurturing for sustainability; • Internationally recognized guidance on Characteristics, Attributes and Best Practices for governmental, industrial and academic contributions to KM is important to sustainability

Effects of Weight Loss, Weight Cycling, and Weight Loss Maintenance on Diabetes Incidence and Change in Cardiometabolic Traits in the Diabetes Prevention Program

Science.gov (United States)

Pan, Qing; Jablonski, Kathleen A.; Aroda, Vanita R.; Watson, Karol E.; Bray, George A.; Kahn, Steven E.; Florez, Jose C.; Perreault, Leigh; Franks, Paul W.

2014-01-01

OBJECTIVE This study examined specific measures of weight loss in relation to incident diabetes and improvement in cardiometabolic risk factors. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS This prospective, observational study analyzed nine weight measures, characterizing baseline weight, short- versus long-term weight loss, short- versus long-term weight regain, and weight cycling, within the Diabetes Prevention Program (DPP) lifestyle intervention arm (n = 1,000) for predictors of incident diabetes and improvement in cardiometabolic risk factors over 2 years. RESULTS Although weight loss in the first 6 months was protective of diabetes (hazard ratio [HR] 0.94 per kg, 95% CI 0.90, 0.98; P weight loss from 0 to 2 years was the strongest predictor of reduced diabetes incidence (HR 0.90 per kg, 95% CI 0.87, 0.93; P Weight cycling (defined as number of 5-lb [2.25-kg] weight cycles) ranged 0–6 times per participant and was positively associated with incident diabetes (HR 1.33, 95% CI 1.12, 1.58; P weight, the effect of weight cycling remained statistically significant for diabetes risk (HR 1.22, 95% CI 1.02, 1.47; P = 0.03) but not for cardiometabolic traits. CONCLUSIONS Two-year weight loss was the strongest predictor of reduced diabetes risk and improvements in cardiometabolic traits. PMID:25024396

Pregnancy Loss and Carotid Intima-Media Thickness in Mexican Women.

Science.gov (United States)

Hartasanchez, Sandra A; Flores-Torres, Mario; Monge, Adriana; Yunes, Elsa; Rodriguez, Beatriz; Cantu-Brito, Carlos; Colaci, Daniela; Lamadrid-Figueroa, Hector; Lopez-Ridaura, Ruy; Lajous, Martin

2018-01-13

Cardiovascular disease in women often develops without conventional risk factors. Prenatal loss is a common pregnancy outcome that may result in physiological changes can increase the potential future risk of cardiovascular disease. Insufficient information exists regarding the impact of pregnancy loss on early markers of cardiovascular disease risk. Cross-sectional analysis of 1767 disease-free women from the MTC (Mexican Teachers' Cohort) who had been pregnant was used to evaluate the relationship between pregnancy loss and carotid intima-media thickness (IMT). Participants responded to a questionnaire regarding their reproductive history, risk factors, and medical conditions. We defined pregnancy loss as history of miscarriage and/or stillbirth. Trained neurologists measured IMT using ultrasound. We log-transformed IMT and defined subclinical carotid atherosclerosis (SCA) as IMT ≥0.8 mm and/or plaque. We used multivariable linear and logistic regression models to assess the relation of pregnancy loss, IMT, and SCA. The mean age of participants was 49.8±5.1 years. The prevalence of pregnancy loss was 22%, and we observed SCA in 23% of participants. Comparing participants who reported a pregnancy loss and those who did not, the multivariable-adjusted odds ratio for SCA was 1.52 (95% confidence interval, 1.12-2.06). Women who experienced a stillbirth had 2.32 higher odds (95% confidence interval, 1.03-5.21) of SCA than those who did not. Mean IMT appeared to be higher in women who reported a pregnancy loss relative to those who did not; nevertheless, this was not statistically significant. Pregnancy loss could be linked to cardiovascular disease later in life. The key findings of our study await confirmation and further investigation of the potential underlying mechanisms for this association is required. © 2018 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

Azathioprine reduces the risk of audiometric relapse in immune-mediated hearing loss.

Science.gov (United States)

Mata-Castro, Nieves; Gavilanes-Plasencia, Javier; Ramírez-Camacho, Rafael; García-Fernández, Alfredo; García-Berrocal, José Ramón

2018-03-01

Current schemes for treatment of immune-mediated hearing loss with sporadic short-course, low-dose corticosteroids, are insufficient. To determine the role of azathioprine in the control of auditory impairment, a longitudinal, observational, descriptive study was performed with 20 patients treated with azathioprine (1.5-2.5mg/kg/day into two doses) for 1year. The loss of 10dB on two consecutive frequencies or 15dB on an isolated frequency was considered as relapse. The mean age of the patients was 52.50years (95%CI: 46.91-58.17), half were women. Bilateral affectation was 65%. 75% had organ specific disease and 25% had systemic autoimmune disease. The difference between baseline PTA (46.49dB; DS18.90) and PTA at 12months (45.47dB; DS18.88) did not reach statistical significance (P=.799). There was a moderate positive correlation between female sex and the presence of systemic disease (R=.577). By applying Student's t for paired data, a significant difference (P=.042) was obtained between the PTA in frequencies up to 1000 Hz (PTA125-1000Hz). The relative incidence rate of relapse per year was .52 relapses/year (95%CI: .19-1.14]). The median time to audiometric relapse-free was 9.70months (DS1.03). Azathioprine maintains the hearing threshold, decreases the risk of relapse, and slows down the rate at which patients relapse, altering the course of immune-mediated inner ear disease. Copyright © 2018 Sociedad Española de Otorrinolaringología y Cirugía de Cabeza y Cuello. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

How normative interpretations of climate risk assessment affect local decision-making: an exploratory study at the city scale in Cork, Ireland

Science.gov (United States)

McDermott, T. K. J.; Surminski, S.

2018-06-01

Urban areas already suffer substantial losses in both economic and human terms from climate-related disasters. These losses are anticipated to grow substantially, in part as a result of the impacts of climate change. In this paper, we investigate the process of translating climate risk data into action for the city level. We apply a commonly used decision-framework as our backdrop and explore where in this process climate risk assessment and normative political judgements intersect. We use the case of flood risk management in Cork city in Ireland to investigate what is needed for translating risk assessment into action at the local city level. Evidence presented is based on focus group discussions at two stakeholder workshops, and a series of individual meetings and phone-discussions with stakeholders involved in local decision-making related to flood risk management and adaptation to climate change, in Ireland. Respondents were chosen on the basis of their expertise or involvement in the decision-making processes locally and nationally. Representatives of groups affected by flood risk and flood risk management and climate adaptation efforts were also included. The Cork example highlights that, despite ever more accurate data and an increasing range of theoretical approaches available to local decision-makers, it is the normative interpretation of this information that determines what action is taken. The use of risk assessments for decision-making is a process that requires normative decisions, such as setting `acceptable risk levels' and identifying `adequate' protection levels, which will not succeed without broader buy-in and stakeholder participation. Identifying and embracing those normative views up-front could strengthen the urban adaptation process-this may, in fact, turn out to be the biggest advantage of climate risk assessment: it offers an opportunity to create a shared understanding of the problem and enables an informed evaluation and discussion of