WorldWideScience

Sample records for risk study design

  1. Quasi-experimental study designs series-paper 6: risk of bias assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waddington, Hugh; Aloe, Ariel M; Becker, Betsy Jane; Djimeu, Eric W; Hombrados, Jorge Garcia; Tugwell, Peter; Wells, George; Reeves, Barney

    2017-09-01

    Rigorous and transparent bias assessment is a core component of high-quality systematic reviews. We assess modifications to existing risk of bias approaches to incorporate rigorous quasi-experimental approaches with selection on unobservables. These are nonrandomized studies using design-based approaches to control for unobservable sources of confounding such as difference studies, instrumental variables, interrupted time series, natural experiments, and regression-discontinuity designs. We review existing risk of bias tools. Drawing on these tools, we present domains of bias and suggest directions for evaluation questions. The review suggests that existing risk of bias tools provide, to different degrees, incomplete transparent criteria to assess the validity of these designs. The paper then presents an approach to evaluating the internal validity of quasi-experiments with selection on unobservables. We conclude that tools for nonrandomized studies of interventions need to be further developed to incorporate evaluation questions for quasi-experiments with selection on unobservables. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Study on risk factors of PWR accidents beyond design basis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahn, Seung Hoon; Nah, W. J.; Bang, Y. S.; Oh, D. Y.; Oh, S. H.

    2005-01-01

    Development of the regulatory guidelines for Beyond Design Basis Accidents (BDBA) with high risk requires a detailed investigation of major factors contributing to the event risk. In this study, each event was classified by the level of risk, based on the probabilistic safety assessment results, so that BDBA with high risk could be selected, with consideration of foreign and domestic regulations, and operating experiences. The regulatory requirements and technical backgrounds for the selected accidents were investigated, and effective regulatory approaches for risk reduction of the accidents. The following conclusions were drawn from this study: - Selected high risk BDBA is station blackout, anticipated without scram, total loss of feedwater. - Major contributors to the risk of selected events were investigated, and appropriate assessment of them was recommended for development of the regulatory guidelines

  3. The impacts of product design changes on supply chain risk: a case study

    OpenAIRE

    Lin, Yong; Zhou, Li

    2011-01-01

    Purpose: The main purpose of this paper is to address the impact of product design changes on supply chain risk, and to identify the supply chain risk dimensions in the Chinese special-purpose vehicle (SPV) industry in the context of product design change.\\ud \\ud Design/methodology/approach: Case study methodology is adopted to describe the current situation of supply chain risk management in the Chinese SPV industry. Data are mainly collected from in-depth semi-structured interviews, and a c...

  4. An Example of Risk Informed Design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banke, Rick; Grant, Warren; Wilson, Paul

    2014-01-01

    NASA Engineering requested a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to compare the difference in the risk of Loss of Crew (LOC) and Loss of Mission (LOM) between different designs of a fluid assembly. They were concerned that the configuration favored by the design team was more susceptible to leakage than a second proposed design, but realized that a quantitative analysis to compare the risks between the two designs might strengthen their argument. The analysis showed that while the second design did help improve the probability of LOC, it did not help from a probability of LOM perspective. This drove the analysis team to propose a minor design change that would drive the probability of LOM down considerably. The analysis also demonstrated that there was another major risk driver that was not immediately obvious from a typical engineering study of the design and was therefore unexpected. None of the proposed alternatives were addressing this risk. This type of trade study demonstrates the importance of performing a PRA in order to completely understand a system's design. It allows managers to use risk as another one of the commodities (e.g., mass, cost, schedule, fault tolerance) that can be traded early in the design of a new system.

  5. Risk Identification in the Early Design Stage Using Thermal Simulations—A Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seyed Masoud Sajjadian

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The likely increasing temperature predicted by UK Climate Impacts Program (UKCIP underlines the risk of overheating and potential increase in cooling loads in most of UK dwellings. This could also increase the possibility of failure in building performance evaluation methods and add even more uncertainty to the decision-making process in a low-carbon building design process. This paper uses a 55-unit residential unit project in Cardiff, UK as a case study to evaluate the potential of thermal simulations to identify risk in the early design stage. Overheating, increase in energy loads, carbon emissions, and thermal bridges are considered as potential risks in this study. DesignBuilder (DesignBuilder Software Ltd., Stroud, UK was the dynamic thermal simulation software used in this research. Simulations compare results in the present, 2050, and 2080 time slices and quantifies the overall cooling and heating loads required to keep the operative temperature within the comfort zone. Overall carbon emissions are also calculated and a considerable reduction in the future is predicted. Further analysis was taken by THERM (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, USA and Psi THERM (Passivate, London, UK to evaluate the thermal bridge risk in most common junctions of the case study and the results reveal the potential of thermal assessment methods to improve design details before the start of construction stage.

  6. Risk informed life cycle plant design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hill, Ralph S. III; Nutt, Mark M.

    2003-01-01

    Many facility life cycle activities including design, construction, fabrication, inspection and maintenance are evolving from a deterministic to a risk-informed basis. The risk informed approach uses probabilistic methods to evaluate the contribution of individual system components to total system performance. Total system performance considers both safety and cost considerations including system failure, reliability, and availability. By necessity, a risk-informed approach considers both the component's life cycle and the life cycle of the system. In the nuclear industry, risk-informed approaches, namely probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) or probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), have become a standard tool used to evaluate the safety of nuclear power plants. Recent studies pertaining to advanced reactor development have indicated that these new power plants must provide enhanced safety over existing nuclear facilities and be cost-competitive with other energy sources. Risk-informed approaches, beyond traditional PRA, offer the opportunity to optimize design while considering the total life cycle of the plant in order to realize these goals. The use of risk-informed design approaches in the nuclear industry is only beginning, with recent promulgation of risk-informed regulations and proposals for risk-informed codes. This paper briefly summarizes the current state of affairs regarding the use of risk-informed approaches in design. Key points to fully realize the benefit of applying a risk-informed approach to nuclear power plant design are then presented. These points are equally applicable to non-nuclear facilities where optimization for cost competitiveness and/or safety is desired. (author)

  7. Computed tomography in children: multicenter cohort study design for the evaluation of cancer risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krille, L.; Jahnen, A.; Mildenberger, P.; Schneider, K.; Weisser, G.; Zeeb, H.; Blettner, M.

    2011-01-01

    Exposure to ionizing radiation is a known risk factor for cancer. Cancer risk is highest after exposure in childhood. The computed tomography is the major contributor to the average, individual radiation exposure. Until now the association has been addressed only in statistical modeling. We present the first feasible study design on childhood cancer risk after exposure to computed tomography.

  8. Risk-informed design of IRIS using a level-1 probabilistic risk assessment from its conceptual design phase

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mizuno, Yuko; Ninokata, Hisashi; Finnicum, David J.

    2005-01-01

    In this study, a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) for the International Reactor Innovative and Secure (IRIS) has been generated to address two key areas as a part of the effort for the pre-application licensing of the IRIS design. First, the IRIS PRA is supporting the evaluation of IRIS design by providing design insights as well as a solid risk basis for the pre-licensing evaluation of the IRIS design. Second, the current PRA task is beginning the preparation of the more complete PRA analyses and documentation that will be required for Design Certification. The initial IRIS PRA is an at-power, Level-1 PRA for internal events that focuses on the evaluation of the IRIS design features to support the risk-informed design of IRIS by application of the PRA insights and the risk information to the design. To accomplish the evaluation, a reasonably complete Level-1 PRA model has been developed. The use of PRA in the early stages of the design has allowed a selection of design and performance features and an optimization of the design of several systems to reduce the potential for events that could lead to core damage via both enhanced prevention and mitigation of challenges. As a result, the total core damage frequency for internal events for the IRIS design has been calculated as 1.2x10 -8 per year

  9. Guidelines for designing messages in risk communication

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takashita, Hirofumi; Horikoshi, Hidehiko

    2004-07-01

    Risk Communication Study Team (hereafter called RC team) has designed messages for risk communication based on the analysis of the local residents' opinions which were expressed in several questionnaire surveys. The messages are described in a side format (Power Point format) every single content. This report provides basic guidelines for making messages that are used for risk communication, and does not include concrete messages which RC team designed. The RC team has already published the report entitled 'Information materials for risk communication' (JNC TN8450 2003-008) separately, and it gives the concrete messages. This report shows general cautions and checklists in designing messages, comments on the messages from outside risk communication experts, and opinions from local residents. (author)

  10. Tailoring Risk Management in Design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tegeltija, M.; Oehmen, J.; McMahon, C. A.

    2018-01-01

    While risk quantification research has grown over the last few decades, only a limited number of studies have addressed the overall process integration of these approaches in design risk management. This paper argues that the choice of risk quantification method has strong implications for several...... process aspects. We investigate current risk management maturity models and suggest an expansion to accommodate requirements originating from the choice of quantification method, and to inform the choice of quantification method, based on other process parameters, validated through 3 case companies....

  11. Hypotheses and fundamental study design characteristics for evaluating potential reduced-risk tobacco products. Part I: Heuristic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murrelle, Lenn; Coggins, Christopher R E; Gennings, Chris; Carchman, Richard A; Carter, Walter H; Davies, Bruce D; Krauss, Marc R; Lee, Peter N; Schleef, Raymond R; Zedler, Barbara K; Heidbreder, Christian

    2010-06-01

    The risk-reducing effect of a potential reduced-risk tobacco product (PRRP) can be investigated conceptually in a long-term, prospective study of disease risks among cigarette smokers who switch to a PRRP and in appropriate comparison groups. Our objective was to provide guidance for establishing the fundamental design characteristics of a study intended to (1) determine if switching to a PRRP reduces the risk of lung cancer (LC) compared with continued cigarette smoking, and (2) compare, using a non-inferiority approach, the reduction in LC risk among smokers who switched to a PRRP to the reduction in risk among smokers who quit smoking entirely. Using standard statistical methods applied to published data on LC incidence after smoking cessation, we show that the sample size and duration required for a study designed to evaluate the potential for LC risk reduction for an already marketed PRRP, compared with continued smoking, varies depending on the LC risk-reducing effectiveness of the PRRP, from a 5-year study with 8000-30,000 subjects to a 15-year study with <5000 to 10,000 subjects. To assess non-inferiority to quitting, the required sample size tends to be about 10 times greater, again depending on the effectiveness of the PRRP. (c) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. The adoption and design of Enterprise Risk Management practices : An empirical study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Paape, L.; Speklé, R.F.

    2012-01-01

    We examine (1) the extent of enterprise risk management (ERM) implementation and the factors that are associated with cross-sectional differences in the level of ERM adoption, and (2) specific risk management design choices and their effect on perceived risk management effectiveness. Broadly

  13. Sampling design for the Study of Cardiovascular Risks in Adolescents (ERICA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mauricio Teixeira Leite de Vasconcellos

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available The Study of Cardiovascular Risk in Adolescents (ERICA aims to estimate the prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors and metabolic syndrome in adolescents (12-17 years enrolled in public and private schools of the 273 municipalities with over 100,000 inhabitants in Brazil. The study population was stratified into 32 geographical strata (27 capitals and five sets with other municipalities in each macro-region of the country and a sample of 1,251 schools was selected with probability proportional to size. In each school three combinations of shift (morning and afternoon and grade were selected, and within each of these combinations, one class was selected. All eligible students in the selected classes were included in the study. The design sampling weights were calculated by the product of the reciprocals of the inclusion probabilities in each sampling stage, and were later calibrated considering the projections of the numbers of adolescents enrolled in schools located in the geographical strata by sex and age.

  14. Review on the present status of the German Risk Study: plant design analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoertner, H.

    1982-01-01

    The influences of the plant design on the core melt accidents and the corresponding release categories are discussed. The assessed frequencies are compared with the relative figures evaluated by WASH-1400. Additional investigations which are planned or already underway in the Phase B of the German Risk Study are mentioned

  15. Impact of task design on task performance and injury risk: case study of a simulated drilling task.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alabdulkarim, Saad; Nussbaum, Maury A; Rashedi, Ehsan; Kim, Sunwook; Agnew, Michael; Gardner, Richard

    2017-06-01

    Existing evidence is limited regarding the influence of task design on performance and ergonomic risk, or the association between these two outcomes. In a controlled experiment, we constructed a mock fuselage to simulate a drilling task common in aircraft manufacturing, and examined the effect of three levels of workstation adjustability on performance as measured by productivity (e.g. fuselage completion time) and quality (e.g. fuselage defective holes), and ergonomic risk as quantified using two common methods (rapid upper limb assessment and the strain index). The primary finding was that both productivity and quality significantly improved with increased adjustability, yet this occurred only when that adjustability succeeded in reducing ergonomic risk. Supporting the inverse association between ergonomic risk and performance, the condition with highest adjustability created the lowest ergonomic risk and the best performance while there was not a substantial difference in ergonomic risk between the other two conditions, in which performance was also comparable. Practitioner Summary: Findings of this study supported a causal relationship between task design and both ergonomic risk and performance, and that ergonomic risk and performance are inversely associated. While future work is needed under more realistic conditions and a broader population, these results may be useful for task (re)design and to help cost-justify some ergonomic interventions.

  16. Cancer risks near nuclear facilities: the importance of research design and explicit study hypotheses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wing, Steve; Richardson, David B; Hoffmann, Wolfgang

    2011-04-01

    In April 2010, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission asked the National Academy of Sciences to update a 1990 study of cancer risks near nuclear facilities. Prior research on this topic has suffered from problems in hypothesis formulation and research design. We review epidemiologic principles used in studies of generic exposure-response associations and in studies of specific sources of exposure. We then describe logical problems with assumptions, formation of testable hypotheses, and interpretation of evidence in previous research on cancer risks near nuclear facilities. Advancement of knowledge about cancer risks near nuclear facilities depends on testing specific hypotheses grounded in physical and biological mechanisms of exposure and susceptibility while considering sample size and ability to adequately quantify exposure, ascertain cancer cases, and evaluate plausible confounders. Next steps in advancing knowledge about cancer risks near nuclear facilities require studies of childhood cancer incidence, focus on in utero and early childhood exposures, use of specific geographic information, and consideration of pathways for transport and uptake of radionuclides. Studies of cancer mortality among adults, cancers with long latencies, large geographic zones, and populations that reside at large distances from nuclear facilities are better suited for public relations than for scientific purposes.

  17. Risk factors and study designs used in research of youths' suicide behaviour-an epidemiological discussion with focus on level of evidence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Erik; Larsen, Kim Juul; Agerbo, Esben

    2014-01-01

    to level of evidence (LoE). Methods: We searched PubMed and psycINFO in order to identify relevant individual studies. Results: We included 36 studies of children and youth on suicidal behaviour and ideation-many rank low on LoE. For suicide, cohort design was often used, and mental illness (depression......Introduction: Many different epidemiology study designs have been used to analyse risk factors for suicide behaviour. The purpose of this study was to obtain an insight into the current study design used in research on youths' risk factors for suicide behaviour and to rank the studies according......, substance abuse and severity of mental illness) was the most common risk factor. Cohort studies are ranked 2b, which is high according to LoE. For suicide attempts, survey was often used, and psychopathology, substance abuse and being exposed to suicidal behaviour were the most common risk factors...

  18. A Holistic Approach for Risk Management During Design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meshkat, Leila

    2006-01-01

    In this paper, an approach for the identification, assessment, mitigation and continuous management of risks during the process of designing a space mission is presented. This approach has been developed by observing the risk patterns that occur at the Project Design Center of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (TeamX) which develops conceptual, concurrent design of Space Missions. TeamX develops an end-to-end conceptual design of a Space Mission in a matter of one or two weeks. As the risk chair in TeamX, the author has had the opportunity to observe the risk patterns that occur during design over the course of many design sessions. This paper introduces an abstraction and generalization of those patterns. Risk is defined as anything that can go wrong, along with its approximate likelihood and consequence. The indicators, and causes, and effects of these risks are cross cutting across the multiple levels of people and processes involved in the design, and the actual design product itself.

  19. Designing and evaluating risk-based surveillance systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Willeberg, Preben; Nielsen, Liza Rosenbaum; Salman, Mo

    2012-01-01

    Risk-based surveillance systems reveal occurrence of disease or infection in a sample of population units, which are selected on the basis of risk factors for the condition under study. The purpose of such systems for supporting practical animal disease policy formulations and management decisions...... with prudent use of resources while maintaining acceptable system performance. High-risk category units are selected for testing by identification of the presence of specific high-risk factor(s), while disregarding other factors that might also influence the risk. On this basis we argue that the most...... applicable risk estimate for use in designing and evaluating a risk-based surveillance system would be a crude (unadjusted) relative risk, odds ratio or apparent prevalence. Risk estimates found in the published literature, however, are often the results of multivariable analyses implicitly adjusting...

  20. Risk, innovation and change : design propositions for implementing risk management in organizations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Staveren, Martinus Theodorus

    2009-01-01

    This Ph.D. research generated unique design propositions for implementing existing risk management methodologies in organizations. The resulting design propositions incorporate a synthesis of risk management, innovation management and change management. True implementation of risk management is

  1. Designing a flood-risk education program in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bosschaert, A.; van der Schee, J.; Kuiper, W.

    2016-01-01

    This study focused on designing a flood-risk education program to enhance 15-year-old students’ flood-risk perception. In the flood-risk education program, learning processes were modeled in such a way that the arousal of moderate levels of fear should prompt experiential and analytical information

  2. Implementing risk-informed life-cycle design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hill, Ralph S.

    2009-01-01

    This paper describes a design process based on risk-informed probabilistic design methodologies that cover a facility's life-cycle from start of conceptual design through decontamination and decommissioning. The concept embodies use of probabilistic risk assessments to establish target reliabilities for facility systems and components. The target reliabilities are used for system based code margin exchange and performance simulation analyses to optimize design over all phases (design, construction, operation and decommissioning) of a facility's life-cycle. System based code margin exchange reduces excessive level of construction margins for passive components to appropriate levels resulting in a more flexible structure of codes and standards that improves facility reliability and cost. System and subsystem simulation analyses determine the optimum combination of initial system and component construction reliability, maintenance frequency, and inspection frequency for both active and passive components. The paper includes a description of these risk-informed life-cycle design processes, a summary of work being done, and a discussion of additional work needed to implement the process.

  3. Mitigating construction safety risks using prevention through design.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gangolells, Marta; Casals, Miquel; Forcada, Núria; Roca, Xavier; Fuertes, Alba

    2010-04-01

    Research and practice have demonstrated that decisions made prior to work at construction sites can influence construction worker safety. However, it has also been argued that most architects and design engineers possess neither the knowledge of construction safety nor the knowledge of construction processes necessary to effectively perform Construction Hazards Prevention through Design (CHPtD). This paper introduces a quantitative methodology that supports designers by providing a way to evaluate the safety-related performance of residential construction designs using a risk analysis-based approach. The methodology compares the overall safety risk level of various construction designs and ranks the significance of the various safety risks of each of these designs. The methodology also compares the absolute importance of a particular safety risk in various construction designs. Because the methodology identifies the relevance of each safety risk at a particular site prior to the construction stage, significant risks are highlighted in advance. Thus, a range of measures for mitigating safety risks can then be implemented during on-site construction. The methodology is specially worthwhile for designers, who can compare construction techniques and systems during the design phase and determine the corresponding level of safety risk without their creative talents being restricted. By using this methodology, construction companies can improve their on-site safety performance. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Design of the BRISC study: a multicentre controlled clinical trial to optimize the communication of breast cancer risks in genetic counselling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Menko Fred H

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Understanding risks is considered to be crucial for informed decision-making. Inaccurate risk perception is a common finding in women with a family history of breast cancer attending genetic counseling. As yet, it is unclear how risks should best be communicated in clinical practice. This study protocol describes the design and methods of the BRISC (Breast cancer RISk Communication study evaluating the effect of different formats of risk communication on the counsellee's risk perception, psychological well-being and decision-making regarding preventive options for breast cancer. Methods and design The BRISC study is designed as a pre-post-test controlled group intervention trial with repeated measurements using questionnaires. The intervention-an additional risk consultation-consists of one of 5 conditions that differ in the way counsellee's breast cancer risk is communicated: 1 lifetime risk in numerical format (natural frequencies, i.e. X out of 100, 2 lifetime risk in both numerical format and graphical format (population figures, 3 lifetime risk and age-related risk in numerical format, 4 lifetime risk and age-related risk in both numerical format and graphical format, and 5 lifetime risk in percentages. Condition 6 is the control condition in which no intervention is given (usual care. Participants are unaffected women with a family history of breast cancer attending one of three participating clinical genetic centres in the Netherlands. Discussion The BRISC study allows for an evaluation of the effects of different formats of communicating breast cancer risks to counsellees. The results can be used to optimize risk communication in order to improve informed decision-making among women with a family history of breast cancer. They may also be useful for risk communication in other health-related services. Trial registration Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN14566836.

  5. Risk-taking related to drug use: an application of the shift-to-risk design.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deren, S; Des Jarlais, D C

    1977-01-01

    The utility of the shift-to-risk design for studying the influence of peer groups on drug taking was investigated. Two studies using this design with drug content were conducted, varying the level of information provided about a drug. Subjects were from two college classes consisting of 26 and 28 students. Results indicated that the specification of possible harmful drug effects which are somewhat minimal lead to a significantly greater willingness to recommend trying the drug. In addition, a tendency for a shift-to-caution was found. It was concluded that the shift-to-risk designwas useful for studying decision-making regarding drug use, and that both users and nonusers of drugs should be included in future research.

  6. Study designs for identifying risk compensation behavior among users of biomedical HIV prevention technologies: balancing methodological rigor and research ethics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Underhill, Kristen

    2013-10-01

    The growing evidence base for biomedical HIV prevention interventions - such as oral pre-exposure prophylaxis, microbicides, male circumcision, treatment as prevention, and eventually prevention vaccines - has given rise to concerns about the ways in which users of these biomedical products may adjust their HIV risk behaviors based on the perception that they are prevented from infection. Known as risk compensation, this behavioral adjustment draws on the theory of "risk homeostasis," which has previously been applied to phenomena as diverse as Lyme disease vaccination, insurance mandates, and automobile safety. Little rigorous evidence exists to answer risk compensation concerns in the biomedical HIV prevention literature, in part because the field has not systematically evaluated the study designs available for testing these behaviors. The goals of this Commentary are to explain the origins of risk compensation behavior in risk homeostasis theory, to reframe risk compensation as a testable response to the perception of reduced risk, and to assess the methodological rigor and ethical justification of study designs aiming to isolate risk compensation responses. Although the most rigorous methodological designs for assessing risk compensation behavior may be unavailable due to ethical flaws, several strategies can help investigators identify potential risk compensation behavior during Phase II, Phase III, and Phase IV testing of new technologies. Where concerns arise regarding risk compensation behavior, empirical evidence about the incidence, types, and extent of these behavioral changes can illuminate opportunities to better support the users of new HIV prevention strategies. This Commentary concludes by suggesting a new way to conceptualize risk compensation behavior in the HIV prevention context. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Game Theory and Risk-Based Levee System Design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hui, R.; Lund, J. R.; Madani, K.

    2014-12-01

    Risk-based analysis has been developed for optimal levee design for economic efficiency. Along many rivers, two levees on opposite riverbanks act as a simple levee system. Being rational and self-interested, land owners on each river bank would tend to independently optimize their levees with risk-based analysis, resulting in a Pareto-inefficient levee system design from the social planner's perspective. Game theory is applied in this study to analyze decision making process in a simple levee system in which the land owners on each river bank develop their design strategies using risk-based economic optimization. For each land owner, the annual expected total cost includes expected annual damage cost and annualized construction cost. The non-cooperative Nash equilibrium is identified and compared to the social planner's optimal distribution of flood risk and damage cost throughout the system which results in the minimum total flood cost for the system. The social planner's optimal solution is not feasible without appropriate level of compensation for the transferred flood risk to guarantee and improve conditions for all parties. Therefore, cooperative game theory is then employed to develop an economically optimal design that can be implemented in practice. By examining the game in the reversible and irreversible decision making modes, the cost of decision making myopia is calculated to underline the significance of considering the externalities and evolution path of dynamic water resource problems for optimal decision making.

  8. The Nightingale study: rationale, study design and baseline characteristics of a prospective cohort study on shift work and breast cancer risk among nurses

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    Background Evidence for the carcinogenicity of shift work in humans is limited because of significant heterogeneity of the results, thus more in-depth research in needed. The Nightingale Study is a nationwide prospective cohort study on occupational exposures and risks of chronic diseases among female nurses and focuses on the potential association between shift work and risk of breast cancer. The study design, methods, and baseline characteristics of the cohort are described. Methods/Design The source population for the cohort comprised 18 to 65 year old women who were registered as having completed training to be a nurse in the nationwide register for healthcare professionals in the Netherlands. Eligible women were invited to complete a web-based questionnaire including full job history, a detailed section on all domains of shift work (shift system, cumulative exposure, and shift intensity) and potential confounding factors, and an informed consent form for linkage with national (disease) registries. Women were also asked to donate toenail clippings as a source of DNA for genetic analyses. Between October 6, 2011 and February 1, 2012, 31% of the 192,931 women who were invited to participate completed the questionnaire, yielding a sample size of 59,947 cohort members. The mean age of the participants was 46.9 year (standard deviation 11.0 years). Toenail clippings were provided by 23,439 participants (39%). Discussion Results from the Nightingale Study will contribute to the scientific evidence of potential shift work-related health risks among nurses and will help develop preventive measures and policy aimed at reducing these risks. PMID:24475944

  9. Implementing risk-informed life-cycle design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hill, Ralph S. III

    2007-01-01

    This paper describes a design process based on risk-informed probabilistic methodologies that cover a facility's life-cycle from start of conceptual design through decontamination and decommissioning. The concept uses probabilistic risk assessments to identify target reliabilities for facility systems and components. Target reliabilities are used in system and subsystem simulation analyses to determine the optimum combination of initial system and component construction reliability, maintenance frequency, and inspection frequency for both active and passive components. The target reliabilities are also used for system based code margin exchange to reduce excessive level of margins to appropriate levels resulting in a more flexible structure of codes and standards that improves facility reliability and cost. The paper includes a description of a risk informed life-cycle design process, a summary of work being done, and a discussion of work needed to implement the process. (author)

  10. Contract Design: Risk Management and Evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mühlbacher, Axel C; Amelung, Volker E; Juhnke, Christin

    2018-01-12

    Effective risk adjustment is an aspect that is more and more given weight on the background of competitive health insurance systems and vital healthcare systems. The risk structure of the providers plays a vital role in Pay for Performance. A prerequisite for optimal incentive-based service models is a (partial) dependence of the agent's returns on the provider's gain level. Integrated care systems as well as accountable care organisations (ACOs) in the US and similar concepts in other countries are advocated as an effective method of improving the performance of healthcare systems. These systems outline a payment and care delivery model that intends to tie provider reimbursements to predefined quality metrics. By this the total costs of care shall be reduced. Little is known about the contractual design and the main challenges of delegating "accountability" to these new kinds of organisations and/or contracts. The costs of market utilisation are highly relevant for the conception of healthcare contracts; furthermore information asymmetries and contract-specific investments are an obstacle to the efficient operation of ACOs. A comprehensive literature review on methods of designing contracts in Integrated Care was conducted. The research question in this article focuses on how reimbursement strategies, evaluation of measures and methods of risk adjustment can best be integrated in healthcare contracting. Each integrated care contract includes challenges for both payers and providers without having sufficient empirical data on both sides. These challenges are clinical, administrative or financial nature. Risk adjusted contracts ensure that the reimbursement roughly matches the true costs resulting from the morbidity of a population. If reimbursement of care provider corresponds to the actual expenses for an individual/population the problem of risk selection is greatly reduced. The currently used methods of risk adjustment have widely differing model and forecast

  11. Design of a randomized trial of diabetes genetic risk testing to motivate behavior change: the Genetic Counseling/lifestyle Change (GC/LC) Study for Diabetes Prevention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grant, Richard W; Meigs, James B; Florez, Jose C; Park, Elyse R; Green, Robert C; Waxler, Jessica L; Delahanty, Linda M; O'Brien, Kelsey E

    2011-10-01

    The efficacy of diabetes genetic risk testing to motivate behavior change for diabetes prevention is currently unknown. This paper presents key issues in the design and implementation of one of the first randomized trials (The Genetic Counseling/Lifestyle Change (GC/LC) Study for Diabetes Prevention) to test whether knowledge of diabetes genetic risk can motivate patients to adopt healthier behaviors. Because individuals may react differently to receiving 'higher' vs 'lower' genetic risk results, we designed a 3-arm parallel group study to separately test the hypotheses that: (1) patients receiving 'higher' diabetes genetic risk results will increase healthy behaviors compared to untested controls, and (2) patients receiving 'lower' diabetes genetic risk results will decrease healthy behaviors compared to untested controls. In this paper we describe several challenges to implementing this study, including: (1) the application of a novel diabetes risk score derived from genetic epidemiology studies to a clinical population, (2) the use of the principle of Mendelian randomization to efficiently exclude 'average' diabetes genetic risk patients from the intervention, and (3) the development of a diabetes genetic risk counseling intervention that maintained the ethical need to motivate behavior change in both 'higher' and 'lower' diabetes genetic risk result recipients. Diabetes genetic risk scores were developed by aggregating the results of 36 diabetes-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms. Relative risk for type 2 diabetes was calculated using Framingham Offspring Study outcomes, grouped by quartiles into 'higher', 'average' (middle two quartiles) and 'lower' genetic risk. From these relative risks, revised absolute risks were estimated using the overall absolute risk for the study group. For study efficiency, we excluded all patients receiving 'average' diabetes risk results from the subsequent intervention. This post-randomization allocation strategy was

  12. Risk-informed design guidance for future reactor systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delaney, Michael J.; Apostolakis, George E.; Driscoll, Michael J.

    2005-01-01

    Future reactor designs face an uncertain regulatory environment. It is anticipated that there will be some level of probabilistic insights in the regulations and supporting regulatory documents for Generation-IV nuclear reactors. Central to current regulations are design basis accidents (DBAs) and the general design criteria (GDC), which were established before probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) were developed. These regulations implement a structuralist approach to safety through traditional defense in depth and large safety margins. In a rationalist approach to safety, accident frequencies are quantified and protective measures are introduced to make these frequencies acceptably low. Both approaches have advantages and disadvantages and future reactor design and licensing processes will have to implement a hybrid approach. This paper presents an iterative four-step risk-informed methodology to guide the design of future-reactor systems using a gas-cooled fast reactor emergency core cooling system as an example. This methodology helps designers to analyze alternative designs under potential risk-informed regulations and to anticipate design justifications the regulator may require during the licensing process. The analysis demonstrated the importance of common-cause failures and the need for guidance on how to change the quantitative impact of these potential failures on the frequency of accident sequences as the design changes. Deliberation is an important part of the four-step methodology because it supplements the quantitative results by allowing the inclusion in the design choice of elements such as best design practices and ease of online maintenance, which usually cannot be quantified. The case study showed that, in some instances, the structuralist and the rationalist approaches were inconsistent. In particular, GDC 35 treats the double-ended break of the largest pipe in the reactor coolant system with concurrent loss of offsite power and a single

  13. Effect of genetic testing for risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus on health behaviors and outcomes: study rationale, development and design

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cho Alex H

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Type 2 diabetes is a prevalent chronic condition globally that results in extensive morbidity, decreased quality of life, and increased health services utilization. Lifestyle changes can prevent the development of diabetes, but require patient engagement. Genetic risk testing might represent a new tool to increase patients' motivation for lifestyle changes. Here we describe the rationale, development, and design of a randomized controlled trial (RCT assessing the clinical and personal utility of incorporating type 2 diabetes genetic risk testing into comprehensive diabetes risk assessments performed in a primary care setting. Methods/Design Patients are recruited in the laboratory waiting areas of two primary care clinics and enrolled into one of three study arms. Those interested in genetic risk testing are randomized to receive either a standard risk assessment (SRA for type 2 diabetes incorporating conventional risk factors plus upfront disclosure of the results of genetic risk testing ("SRA+G" arm, or the SRA alone ("SRA" arm. Participants not interested in genetic risk testing will not receive the test, but will receive SRA (forming a third, "no-test" arm. Risk counseling is provided by clinic staff (not study staff external to the clinic. Fasting plasma glucose, insulin levels, body mass index (BMI, and waist circumference are measured at baseline and 12 months, as are patients' self-reported behavioral and emotional responses to diabetes risk information. Primary outcomes are changes in insulin resistance and BMI after 12 months; secondary outcomes include changes in diet patterns, physical activity, waist circumference, and perceived risk of developing diabetes. Discussion The utility, feasibility, and efficacy of providing patients with genetic risk information for common chronic diseases in primary care remain unknown. The study described here will help to establish whether providing type 2 diabetes genetic risk

  14. Design of the BRISC study: a multicentre controlled clinical trial to optimize the communication of breast cancer risks in genetic counselling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ockhuysen-Vermey, Caroline F; Henneman, Lidewij; van Asperen, Christi J; Oosterwijk, Jan C; Menko, Fred H; Timmermans, Daniëlle R M

    2008-10-03

    Understanding risks is considered to be crucial for informed decision-making. Inaccurate risk perception is a common finding in women with a family history of breast cancer attending genetic counseling. As yet, it is unclear how risks should best be communicated in clinical practice. This study protocol describes the design and methods of the BRISC (Breast cancer RISk Communication) study evaluating the effect of different formats of risk communication on the counsellee's risk perception, psychological well-being and decision-making regarding preventive options for breast cancer. The BRISC study is designed as a pre-post-test controlled group intervention trial with repeated measurements using questionnaires. The intervention-an additional risk consultation-consists of one of 5 conditions that differ in the way counsellee's breast cancer risk is communicated: 1) lifetime risk in numerical format (natural frequencies, i.e. X out of 100), 2) lifetime risk in both numerical format and graphical format (population figures), 3) lifetime risk and age-related risk in numerical format, 4) lifetime risk and age-related risk in both numerical format and graphical format, and 5) lifetime risk in percentages. Condition 6 is the control condition in which no intervention is given (usual care). Participants are unaffected women with a family history of breast cancer attending one of three participating clinical genetic centres in the Netherlands. The BRISC study allows for an evaluation of the effects of different formats of communicating breast cancer risks to counsellees. The results can be used to optimize risk communication in order to improve informed decision-making among women with a family history of breast cancer. They may also be useful for risk communication in other health-related services. Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN14566836.

  15. Documentation design for probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parkinson, W.J.; von Herrmann, J.L.

    1985-01-01

    This paper describes a framework for documentation design of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) and is based on the EPRI document NP-3470 ''Documentation Design for Probabilistic Risk Assessment''. The goals for PRA documentation are stated. Four audiences are identified which PRA documentation must satisfy, and the documentation consistent with the needs of the various audiences are discussed, i.e., the Summary Report, the Executive Summary, the Main Report, and Appendices. The authors recommend the documentation specifications discussed herein as guides rather than rigid definitions

  16. Contract Design: Risk Management and Evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Axel C. Mühlbacher

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Effective risk adjustment is an aspect that is more and more given weight on the background of competitive health insurance systems and vital healthcare systems. The risk structure of the providers plays a vital role in Pay for Performance. A prerequisite for optimal incentive-based service models is a (partial dependence of the agent’s returns on the provider’s gain level. Integrated care systems as well as accountable care organisations (ACOs in the US and similar concepts in other countries are advocated as an effective method of improving the performance of healthcare systems. These systems outline a payment and care delivery model that intends to tie provider reimbursements to predefined quality metrics. By this the total costs of care shall be reduced.  Methods: Little is known about the contractual design and the main challenges of delegating “accountability” to these new kinds of organisations and/or contracts. The costs of market utilisation are highly relevant for the conception of healthcare contracts; furthermore information asymmetries and contract-specific investments are an obstacle to the efficient operation of ACOs. A comprehensive literature review on methods of designing contracts in Integrated Care was conducted. The research question in this article focuses on how reimbursement strategies, evaluation of measures and methods of risk adjustment can best be integrated in healthcare contracting.  Results: Each integrated care contract includes challenges for both payers and providers without having sufficient empirical data on both sides. These challenges are clinical, administrative or financial nature. Risk adjusted contracts ensure that the reimbursement roughly matches the true costs resulting from the morbidity of a population. If reimbursement of care provider corresponds to the actual expenses for an individual/population the problem of risk selection is greatly reduced. The currently used methods

  17. Forging process design for risk reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mao, Yongning

    In this dissertation, forging process design has been investigated with the primary concern on risk reduction. Different forged components have been studied, especially those ones that could cause catastrophic loss if failure occurs. As an effective modeling methodology, finite element analysis is applied extensively in this work. Three examples, titanium compressor disk, superalloy turbine disk, and titanium hip prosthesis, have been discussed to demonstrate this approach. Discrete defects such as hard alpha anomalies are known to cause disastrous failure if they are present in those stress critical components. In this research, hard-alpha inclusion movement during forging of titanium compressor disk is studied by finite element analysis. By combining the results from Finite Element Method (FEM), regression modeling and Monte Carlo simulation, it is shown that changing the forging path is able to mitigate the failure risk of the components during the service. The second example goes with a turbine disk made of superalloy IN 718. The effect of forging on microstructure is the main consideration in this study. Microstructure defines the as-forged disk properties. Considering specific forging conditions, preform has its own effect on the microstructure. Through a sensitivity study it is found that forging temperature and speed have significant influence on the microstructure. In order to choose the processing parameters to optimize the microstructure, the dependence of microstructure on die speed and temperature is thoroughly studied using design of numerical experiments. For various desired goals, optimal solutions are determined. The narrow processing window of titanium alloy makes the isothermal forging a preferred way to produce forged parts without forging defects. However, the cost of isothermal forging (dies at the same temperature as the workpiece) limits its wide application. In this research, it has been demonstrated that with proper process design, the die

  18. Bias correction of risk estimates in vaccine safety studies with rare adverse events using a self-controlled case series design.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, Chan; Newcomer, Sophia R; Glanz, Jason M; Shoup, Jo Ann; Daley, Matthew F; Hambidge, Simon J; Xu, Stanley

    2013-12-15

    The self-controlled case series (SCCS) method is often used to examine the temporal association between vaccination and adverse events using only data from patients who experienced such events. Conditional Poisson regression models are used to estimate incidence rate ratios, and these models perform well with large or medium-sized case samples. However, in some vaccine safety studies, the adverse events studied are rare and the maximum likelihood estimates may be biased. Several bias correction methods have been examined in case-control studies using conditional logistic regression, but none of these methods have been evaluated in studies using the SCCS design. In this study, we used simulations to evaluate 2 bias correction approaches-the Firth penalized maximum likelihood method and Cordeiro and McCullagh's bias reduction after maximum likelihood estimation-with small sample sizes in studies using the SCCS design. The simulations showed that the bias under the SCCS design with a small number of cases can be large and is also sensitive to a short risk period. The Firth correction method provides finite and less biased estimates than the maximum likelihood method and Cordeiro and McCullagh's method. However, limitations still exist when the risk period in the SCCS design is short relative to the entire observation period.

  19. Applying Statistical Design to Control the Risk of Over-Design with Stochastic Simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi Wu

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available By comparing a hard real-time system and a soft real-time system, this article elicits the risk of over-design in soft real-time system designing. To deal with this risk, a novel concept of statistical design is proposed. The statistical design is the process accurately accounting for and mitigating the effects of variation in part geometry and other environmental conditions, while at the same time optimizing a target performance factor. However, statistical design can be a very difficult and complex task when using clas-sical mathematical methods. Thus, a simulation methodology to optimize the design is proposed in order to bridge the gap between real-time analysis and optimization for robust and reliable system design.

  20. Stroke risk associated with balloon based catheter ablation for atrial fibrillation: Rationale and design of the MACPAF Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Schultheiss Heinz-Peter

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Catheter ablation of the pulmonary veins has become accepted as a standard therapeutic approach for symptomatic paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (AF. However, there is some evidence for an ablation associated (silent stroke risk, lowering the hope to limit the stroke risk by restoration of rhythm over rate control in AF. The purpose of the prospective randomized single-center study "Mesh Ablator versus Cryoballoon Pulmonary Vein Ablation of Symptomatic Paroxysmal Atrial Fibrillation" (MACPAF is to compare the efficacy and safety of two balloon based pulmonary vein ablation systems in patients with symptomatic paroxysmal AF. Methods/Design Patients are randomized 1:1 for the Arctic Front® or the HD Mesh Ablator® catheter for left atrial catheter ablation (LACA. The predefined endpoints will be assessed by brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI, neuro(psychological tests and a subcutaneously implanted reveal recorder for AF detection. According to statistics 108 patients will be enrolled. Discussion Findings from the MACPAF trial will help to balance the benefits and risks of LACA for symptomatic paroxysmal AF. Using serial brain MRIs might help to identify patients at risk for LACA-associated cerebral thromboembolism. Potential limitations of the study are the single-center design, the existence of a variety of LACA-catheters, the missing placebo-group and the impossibility to assess the primary endpoint in a blinded fashion. Trial registration clinicaltrials.gov NCT01061931

  1. Screening for type 2 diabetes in a high-risk population: Study design and feasibility of a population-based randomized controlled trial

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B. Klijs (Bart); S.J. Otto (Suzie); R.J. Heine (Robert); Y. van der Graaf (Yolanda); J.J. Lous (Jan); H.J. de Koning (Harry)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractBackground: We describe the design and present the results of the first year of a population-based study of screening for type 2 diabetes in individuals at high risk of developing the disease. High risk is defined as having abdominal obesity. Methods. Between 2006 and 2007, 79,142

  2. Design issues in epidemiologic studies of indoor exposure to Rn and risk of lung cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lubin, J.H.; Samet, J.M.; Weinberg, C.

    1990-01-01

    Recent data on indoor air quality have indicated that Rn (222Rn) and its decay products are frequently present in domestic environments. Their presence in indoor air raises concerns about an increase in lung cancer risk for the general population. To directly evaluate lung cancer risk from domestic exposure to Rn and its decay products, as well as to evaluate risk assessments derived from studies of Rn-exposed underground miners, several epidemiologic studies of indoor Rn exposure have been initiated or are planned. This paper calculates sample sizes required for a hypothetical case-control study to address several important hypotheses and shows the impact of difficult problems associated with estimating a subject's Rn exposure. We consider the effects of subject mobility, choice of the exposure response trend which is used to characterize an alternative hypothesis, and errors in the estimation of exposure. Imprecise estimation of Rn exposure arises from errors in the measurement device, exposure to Rn decay products from sources outside the home, inability to measure exposures over time in current as well as previous residences, and the unknown relationship between measured concentration and lung dose of alpha energy from the decay of Rn and its progeny. These methodological problems can result in large discrepancies between computed and actual study power. Failure to anticipate these problems in the design of a study can result in inaccurate estimates of power. We conclude that case-control studies of indoor Rn and lung cancer may require substantial numbers of subjects in order to address the many questions of importance that burden current risk assessments with uncertainty. We suggest pooling data from studies with the largest numbers of cases and with the most precise estimates of Rn exposure as the best approach for meeting present research needs

  3. Contract Design: Financial Options and Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mühlbacher, Axel C; Amelung, Volker E; Juhnke, Christin

    2018-01-12

    Integrated care systems as well as accountable care organisations (ACOs) in the US and similar concepts in other countries are advocated as an effective method of improving the performance of healthcare systems. These systems outline a payment and care delivery model that intends to tie provider reimbursements to predefined quality metrics. By this the total costs of care shall be reduced. When designing healthcare options contractors are faced with a variety of financial options. The costs of market utilisation are highly relevant for the conception of healthcare contracts; furthermore contract-specific investments are an obstacle to the efficient operation of ACOs. A comprehensive literature review on methods of designing contracts in Integrated Care was conducted. This article is the second in a row of three that are all published in this issue and contribute to a specific issue in designing healthcare contracts. The first dealt with the organisation of contracts and information asymmetries, while part 3 concludes with the question of risk management and evaluation. The specific research question of this second article focusses on the financial options and reimbursement schemes that are available to define healthcare contracts. A healthcare contract is a relational contract, which determines the level of reimbursement, the scope of services and the quality between service providers and payers, taking account of the risks relating to population and performance. A relational contract is an agreement based upon assumption of a longer timeframe. A major obstacle to the practical implementation of healthcare contracts is the prognosis of the inflows and outflows due to the actuarial risks of the insured population. Financing conditions and reimbursement arrangements that are based on a prospectively determined fixed price, have a significant drawback: it is very difficult to take the differences in health status and the utilisation of distinct insured clientele

  4. Risk-informed design of a pebble bed gas reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ritterbusch, Stanley; Dimitrijevic, Vesna; Simic Zdenko; Savkina Marina

    2003-01-01

    One of the major challenges to the successful deployment of new nuclear plants in the United States is the regulatory process, which is largely based on water-reactor design technology and operating experience. While ongoing and expected efforts to license new LWR designs are based primarily on current regulations, guidance, and past experience, the pre-application review of the gas-cooled Pebble Bed Modular Reactor (PBMR) has shown that efforts are being made to provide additional 'risk-informed' improvements to the licensing process. These improvements are aimed at resolving new design and regulatory issues using a plant-wide integrated evaluation method - state-of-the-art Probabilistic Risk Assessment - which addresses all significant design features and operating modes. The integrated PRA evaluation is supported by the usual deterministic design analyses, engineering judgments, and margins added to address uncertainties (i.e., defense-in-depth). The work performed for this paper was completed as part of the United States Department of Energy's Nuclear Energy Research Initiative. The purpose of this particular project was to develop the methods for a new 'highly risk-informed' design and regulatory process. In this work. PRA techniques were applied in order to provide an integrated and systematic analysis of the plant design, to quantify uncertainties and explicitly account for defense-in-depth features. This work concentrates on the application of the risk-informed principles to a new plant design such as the PBMR. The implementation example completed for this project included specification of the design configuration, use of the PRA to evaluate the design, and iterations to identify design changes that improve the overall level of safety and system reliability. This paper summarizes the new 'highly risk-informed' design process, the design of the PBMR, and the results obtained. These results, consistent with the known inherent safety features of a pebble

  5. Screening for type 2 diabetes in a high-risk population: study design and feasibility of a population-based randomized controlled trial

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klijs, B.; Otto, S.J.; Heine, R.J.; van der Graaf, Y.; Lous, J.J.; Koning, H.J.

    2012-01-01

    Background: We describe the design and present the results of the first year of a population-based study of screening for type 2 diabetes in individuals at high risk of developing the disease. High risk is defined as having abdominal obesity. Methods. Between 2006 and 2007, 79,142 inhabitants of two

  6. Design of emergency plans due to the failure risk of hydraulic works - Theory and case study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ochoa Rivera, Juan Camilo

    2006-01-01

    Dams are built to be highly safe hydraulic works. Nevertheless, they are not exempt from a certain failure risk, which turns in a variable value along the time service of the dam. As the mentioned dam-failure risk can be a significant hazard, analysis on dam-break is becoming important, as same as the assessment of its consequences. This type of studies are intended to reduce the costs linked to dam-failure, which are mainly due to the losses of human beings and material goods. A suitable way to minimize such losses consists of designing emergency plans, which permit to prepare and implant appropriate protection measures. A methodological framework to carry out this kind of emergency plans is introduced in this paper, accompanied by a case study corresponding to an emergency plan of a Spanish dam

  7. Remarks on sequential designs in risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seidenfeld, T.

    1982-01-01

    The special merits of sequential designs are reviewed in light of particular challenges that attend risk assessment for human population. The kinds of ''statistical inference'' are distinguished and the problem of design which is pursued is the clash between Neyman-Pearson and Bayesian programs of sequential design. The value of sequential designs is discussed and the Neyman-Pearson vs. Bayesian sequential designs are probed in particular. Finally, warnings with sequential designs are considered, especially in relation to utilitarianism

  8. HEALTHY study rationale, design and methods: moderating risk of type 2 diabetes in multi-ethnic middle school students

    OpenAIRE

    2009-01-01

    The HEALTHY primary prevention trial was designed and implemented in response to the growing numbers of children and adolescents being diagnosed with type 2 diabetes. The objective was to moderate risk factors for type 2 diabetes. Modifiable risk factors measured were indicators of adiposity and glycemic dysregulation: body mass index ≥85th percentile, fasting glucose ≥5.55 mmol l-1 (100 mg per 100 ml) and fasting insulin ≥180 pmol l-1 (30 μU ml-1). A series of pilot studies established the f...

  9. Managing geotechnical risk on US design-build transport projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kevin McLain

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Awarding design-build (DB contracts before a complete subsurface investigation is completed, makes mitigating the risk of differing site conditions difficult, if not impossible. The purpose of the study was to identify effective practices for managing geotechnical risk in DB projects, and it reports the results of a survey that included responses from 42 of 50 US state departments of transportation and a content analysis of DB requests for proposals from 26 states to gauge the client’s perspective, as well as 11 structured interviews with DB contractors to obtain the perspective from the other side of the DB contract.  A suite of DB geotechnical risk manage tools is presented based on the results of the analysis. Effective practices were found in three areas: enhancing communications on geotechnical issues before final proposals are submitted; the use of project-specific differing site conditions clauses; and expediting geotechnical design reviews after award. The major finding is that contract verbiage alone is not sufficient to transfer the risk of changed site conditions. The agency must actively communicate all the geotechnical information on hand at the time of the DB procurement and develop a contract strategy that reduces/retires the risk of geotechnical uncertainty as expeditiously as possible after award.

  10. Design of an environmental site assessment template for open radioactive site contamination : a radioecological risk approach and case study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nguyen, T.

    2004-01-01

    To reduce redundancy, cost, and time, while at the same time ultimately increasing the effectiveness of the radioactive risk management process, a logical framework incorporating risk assessments (human cancer and environmental risks) into the environmental site assessment process was designed for radioactive open site contamination. Risk-based corrective action is becoming an increasingly more acceptable approach for the remediation of contaminated sites. In the past, cleanup goals were usually established without any regard to the risk involved, by mandating remediation goals based solely on maximum contamination levels. Now, a multi-stage environmental site assessment template has been developed on a radioecological approach. The template gives a framework for making environmentally sound decisions based on relevant regulations and guidelines. The first stage involves the comparison of the background screening activity level to the regulated activity level, the second stage involves the use of site-specific information to determine the risk involved with the contamination, and the third stage provides a remediation decision matrix based on results from the first two stages. This environmental site assessment template is unique because it incorporates the modified Canadian National Classification System for radioactive contaminated sites and two different types of risk assessments (human cancer risks and the newly designed ecological risk) into the decision making process. The template was used to assess a radiologically contaminated site at the Canadian Forces Base at Suffield (Alberta) as a case study, and it reaffirms the Department of National Defence's action as appropriate. This particular site is a Class 3, has an overall insignificant human cancer risk ( -6 ) and a low environmental risk, and conforms to all regulated guidelines. Currently, it is restricted and should be left as is, provided that the subsurface is not disturbed. (author)

  11. Demonstration of risk-based decision analysis in remedial alternative selection and design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Evans, E.K.; Duffield, G.M.; Massmann, J.W.; Freeze, R.A.; Stephenson, D.E.

    1993-01-01

    This study demonstrates the use of risk-based decision analysis (Massmann and Freeze 1987a, 1987b) in the selection and design of an engineering alternative for groundwater remediation at a waste site at the Savannah River Site, a US Department of Energy facility in South Carolina. The investigation focuses on the remediation and closure of the H-Area Seepage Basins, an inactive disposal site that formerly received effluent water from a nearby production facility. A previous study by Duffield et al. (1992), which used risk-based decision analysis to screen a number of ground-water remediation alternatives under consideration for this site, indicated that the most attractive remedial option is ground-water extraction by wells coupled with surface water discharge of treated effluent. The aim of the present study is to demonstrate the iterative use of risk-based decision analysis throughout the design of a particular remedial alternative. In this study, we consider the interaction between two episodes of aquifer testing over a 6-year period and the refinement of a remedial extraction well system design. Using a three-dimensional ground-water flow model, this study employs (1) geostatistics and Monte Carlo techniques to simulate hydraulic conductivity as a stochastic process and (2) Bayesian updating and conditional simulation to investigate multiple phases of aquifer testing. In our evaluation of a remedial alternative, we compute probabilistic costs associated with the failure of an alternative to completely capture a simulated contaminant plume. The results of this study demonstrate the utility of risk-based decision analysis as a tool for improving the design of a remedial alternative through the course of phased data collection at a remedial site

  12. HTGR containment design options: an application of probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1977-08-01

    Through the use of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), it is possible to quantitatively evaluate the radiological risk associated with a given reactor design and to place such risk into perspective with alternative designs. The merits are discussed for several containment alternatives for the HTGR from the viewpoints of economics and licensability, as well as public risk. The quantification of cost savings and public risk indicates that presently acceptable public risk can be maintained and cost savings of $40 million can result from use of a vented confinement for the HTGR

  13. The Nightingale study: rationale, study design and baseline characteristics of a prospective cohort study on shift work and breast cancer risk among nurses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pijpe, Anouk; Slottje, Pauline; van Pelt, Cres; Stehmann, Floor; Kromhout, Hans; van Leeuwen, Flora E; Vermeulen, Roel C H; Rookus, Matti A

    2014-01-29

    Evidence for the carcinogenicity of shift work in humans is limited because of significant heterogeneity of the results, thus more in-depth research in needed. The Nightingale Study is a nationwide prospective cohort study on occupational exposures and risks of chronic diseases among female nurses and focuses on the potential association between shift work and risk of breast cancer. The study design, methods, and baseline characteristics of the cohort are described. The source population for the cohort comprised 18 to 65 year old women who were registered as having completed training to be a nurse in the nationwide register for healthcare professionals in the Netherlands. Eligible women were invited to complete a web-based questionnaire including full job history, a detailed section on all domains of shift work (shift system, cumulative exposure, and shift intensity) and potential confounding factors, and an informed consent form for linkage with national (disease) registries. Women were also asked to donate toenail clippings as a source of DNA for genetic analyses. Between October 6, 2011 and February 1, 2012, 31% of the 192,931 women who were invited to participate completed the questionnaire, yielding a sample size of 59,947 cohort members. The mean age of the participants was 46.9 year (standard deviation 11.0 years). Toenail clippings were provided by 23,439 participants (39%). Results from the Nightingale Study will contribute to the scientific evidence of potential shift work-related health risks among nurses and will help develop preventive measures and policy aimed at reducing these risks.

  14. Development of risk-informed assessment (RIA) design methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ji, S. K.; Park, S. J.; Park, B. R.; Kim, M. R.; Choi, C. J.

    2001-01-01

    It has been assessed that the capital cost for future nuclear power plants needs to be reduced on the order of 35% to 40% for Advanced Light Water Reactors such as KNGR and System 80+. Such reduction in the capital cost will require a fundamental re-evaluation of the industry standards and regulatory basis under which nuclear plants are designed and licensed. The objective of this study is to develop the risk-informed assessment (RIA) design methodology for future nuclear power plants. In order to meet this objective, the design simplification method is developed and RIA design methodology exercised for conceptual system. For the methodology verification, simplified conceptual ECCS and feedwater system are developed, then LOCA sensitivity analyses and agressive secondary cooldown analyses for these systems are performed. In addition, the probability safety assessment (PSA) model for LOCA is developed and the validation of RIA design methodology is demonstrated

  15. German risk study, phase (DRS-B)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Werner, W.

    1992-01-01

    The first risk investigations were primarily intended to estimate the risk of accidents in nuclear power plants and to compare it with other natural risk and civilization risks. The American reactor safety study WASH 1400 and the German risk study phase A (DRS-A) gave a detailed analyses of the offsite consequences of accidents, especially the magnitude and frequency of health damage for the population. Risk investigations today are primarily used to examine the design of safety systems and to further develop the entire safety concept. Safety investigations have shown that nuclear power plants still possess safety reserves if safety systems do not operate as planned. These safety reserves can be exploited in the sense of a further development of safety by plant internal emergency measures. One purpose of risk analyses is to identify such measures and to evaluate their feasibility and effectiveness. The most important goals of the investigations in DRS-B were: Identification of vulnerabilities and possible safety improvements; determination of safety reserves during accident sequences exceeding the design limits; evaluation of plant internal emergency measures. Thus, goals in phase B compared with phase A have changed from investigations of the magnitude of damage to detailed analysis of the plant systems response under accident conditions. The magnitude of possible fission product releases is also determined in phase B. However, no new accident consequence calculations are performed. Figs and tabs

  16. Methodology for Designing Operational Banking Risks Monitoring System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kostjunina, T. N.

    2018-05-01

    The research looks at principles of designing an information system for monitoring operational banking risks. A proposed design methodology enables one to automate processes of collecting data on information security incidents in the banking network, serving as the basis for an integrated approach to the creation of an operational risk management system. The system can operate remotely ensuring tracking and forecasting of various operational events in the bank network. A structure of a content management system is described.

  17. Preliminary Field Tests and Long-Term Monitoring as a Method of Design Risk Mitigation: A Case Study of Gdańsk Deepwater Container Terminal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miśkiewicz Mikołaj

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Appropriate risk assessment plays a fundamental role in the design. . The authors propose a possible method of design risk mitigation, which follows recommendations included in Eurocode 7. The so-called “Observational Method” (OM can produce savings in costs and programmes on engineering projects without compromising safety. The case study presented is a complex design solution that deals with the heavy foundations of a gantry crane beam as one of the elements of a Deepwater Container Terminal extension. The paper presents a detailed process of the design of the rear crane beam being a part of the brand new berth, together with its static analysis, as well as the long-term results of observations, which have revealed the real performance of the marine structure. The case presented is based on excessive preliminary field tests and technical monitoring of the structure, and is an example of a successful OM implementation and design risk mitigation.

  18. Risk Informed Design as Part of the Systems Engineering Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deckert, George

    2010-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews the importance of Risk Informed Design (RID) as an important feature of the systems engineering process. RID is based on the principle that risk is a design commodity such as mass, volume, cost or power. It also reviews Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) as it is used in the product life cycle in the development of NASA's Constellation Program.

  19. Risk allocation approach to reactor safety design and evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gokcek, O.; Temme, M.I.; Derby, S.L.

    1978-01-01

    This paper describes a risk allocation technique used for determining nuclear power plant design reliability requirements. The concept of risk allocation-optimum choice of safety function reliabilities under a maximum risk constraint - is described. An example of risk allocation is presented to demonstrate the application of the methodology

  20. The @RISK Study: Risk communication for patients with type 2 diabetes: design of a randomised controlled trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welschen, Laura M C; Bot, Sandra D M; Dekker, Jacqueline M; Timmermans, Daniëlle R M; van der Weijden, Trudy; Nijpels, Giel

    2010-08-05

    Patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) have an increased risk to develop severe diabetes related complications, especially cardiovascular disease (CVD). The risk to develop CVD can be estimated by means of risk formulas. However, patients have difficulties to understand the outcomes of these formulas. As a result, they may not recognize the importance of changing lifestyle and taking medication in time. Therefore, it is important to develop risk communication methods, that will improve the patients' understanding of risks associated with having diabetes, which enables them to make informed choices about their diabetes care.The aim of this study is to investigate the effects of an intervention focussed on the communication of the absolute 10-year risk to develop CVD on risk perception, attitude and intention to change lifestyle behaviour in patients with T2DM. The conceptual framework of the intervention is based on the Theory of Planned Behaviour and the Self-regulation Theory. A randomised controlled trial will be performed in the Diabetes Care System West-Friesland (DCS), a managed care system. Newly referred T2DM patients of the DCS, younger than 75 years will be eligible for the study. The intervention group will be exposed to risk communication on CVD, on top of standard managed care of the DCS. This intervention consists of a simple explanation on the causes and consequences of CVD, and possibilities for prevention. The probabilities of CVD in 10 year will be explained in natural frequencies and visualised by a population diagram. The control group will receive standard managed care. The primary outcome is appropriateness of risk perception. Secondary outcomes are attitude and intention to change lifestyle behaviour and illness perception. Differences between baseline and follow-up (2 and 12 weeks) between groups will be analysed according to the intention-to-treat principle. The study was powered on 120 patients in each group. This innovative risk

  1. The South Asian Heart Lifestyle Intervention (SAHELI) study to improve cardiovascular risk factors in a community setting: design and methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kandula, Namratha R; Patel, Yasin; Dave, Swapna; Seguil, Paola; Kumar, Santosh; Baker, David W; Spring, Bonnie; Siddique, Juned

    2013-11-01

    Disseminating and implementing evidence-based, cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention lifestyle interventions in community settings and in ethnic minority populations is a challenge. We describe the design and methods for the South Asian Heart Lifestyle Intervention (SAHELI) study, a pilot study designed to determine the feasibility and initial efficacy of a culturally-targeted, community-based lifestyle intervention to improve physical activity and diet behaviors among medically underserved South Asians (SAs). Participants with at least one CVD risk factor will be randomized to either a lifestyle intervention or a control group. Participants in both groups will be screened in a community setting and receive a primary care referral after randomization. Intervention participants will receive 6weeks of group classes, followed by 12weeks of individual telephone support where they will be encouraged to initiate and maintain a healthy lifestyle goal. Control participants will receive their screening results and monthly mailings on CVD prevention. Primary outcomes will be changes in moderate/vigorous physical activity and saturated fat intake between baseline, 3-, and 6-month follow-up. Secondary outcomes will be changes in weight, clinical risk factors, primary care visits, self-efficacy, and social support. This study will be one of the first to pilot-test a lifestyle intervention for SAs, one of the fastest growing racial/ethnic groups in the U.S. and one with disparate CVD risk. Results of this pilot study will provide preliminary data about the efficacy of a lifestyle intervention on CVD risk in SAs and inform community-engaged CVD prevention efforts in an increasingly diverse U.S. population. © 2013.

  2. Recognizing Risk-of-Failure in Communication Design Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yee, Joyce; Lievesley, Matthew; Taylor, Louise

    2009-01-01

    The pace of commercial graphic design practice presents very few opportunities to conduct user research after a project's launch. This makes the design team's ability to anticipate and address risks during the design development phase even more important, recognized in the astute observation from Tim Brown, CEO of leading international design…

  3. Multi crop model climate risk country-level management design: case study on the Tanzanian maize production system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chavez, E.

    2015-12-01

    Future climate projections indicate that a very serious consequence of post-industrial anthropogenic global warming is the likelihood of the greater frequency and intensity of extreme hydrometeorological events such as heat waves, droughts, storms, and floods. The design of national and international policies targeted at building more resilient and environmentally sustainable food systems needs to rely on access to robust and reliable data which is largely absent. In this context, the improvement of the modelling of current and future agricultural production losses using the unifying language of risk is paramount. In this study, we use a methodology that allows the integration of the current understanding of the various interacting systems of climate, agro-environment, crops, and the economy to determine short to long-term risk estimates of crop production loss, in different environmental, climate, and adaptation scenarios. This methodology is applied to Tanzania to assess optimum risk reduction and maize production increase paths in different climate scenarios. The simulations carried out use inputs from three different crop models (DSSAT, APSIM, WRSI) run in different technological scenarios and thus allowing to estimate crop model-driven risk exposure estimation bias. The results obtained also allow distinguishing different region-specific optimum climate risk reduction policies subject to historical as well as RCP2.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios. The region-specific risk profiles obtained provide a simple framework to determine cost-effective risk management policies for Tanzania and allow to optimally combine investments in risk reduction and risk transfer.

  4. Issues and measures in the design process from the perspective of risk management of construction projects. study of power plant construction projects accident cases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iwahara, Hirohiko; Shiraki, Wataru; Inomo, Hitoshi; Hasegawa, Syuichi

    2015-01-01

    Construction of power plants, foundation work, consisting of a wide variety of construction work, such as plant equipment work. And, civil engineering, technician electrical such as different engineering field, is a comprehensive construction project that works for the design conditions of the structure. However, if the cooperation design conditions is not sufficient, as a construction project, the optimal structures may not be said to have been built. As a result, total cost or increased, including the initial cost of the end construction projects, it is be a cause of the accident. Previous studies, plant equipment construction, is related to safety management and risk of foundation work such as individual construction were many. In this paper, as an example the power plant construction, and performs the following discussion from the point of view of risk management of large-scale construction projects that these individual construction work together with each other. The importance of design conditions cooperation, (1) 'Challenges and countermeasures of ordering method of construction projects', to verify from the (2) 'actually happened substation foundation displacement accident'. And on whether or not the construction project order institutions can be involved in the design from the site preparation stage, we study (3) for 'construction work scope and risk control the construction project ordering institutions to implement' the risk to the natural disaster (earthquake). From these, we describe the challenges and measures in the construction project of the design process. (author)

  5. Using QA classification to guide design and manage risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lathrop, J.; DeKlever, R.; Petrie, E.H.

    1993-01-01

    Raytheon Services Nevada has developed a classification process based on probabilistic risk assessment, using accident/impact scenarios for each system classified. Initial classification analyses were performed for the 20 systems of Package IA of the Exploratory Studies Facility (ESF). The analyses demonstrated a solid, defensible methodological basis for classification which minimizes the use of direct engineering judgment. They provide guidance for ESF design and risk management through the identification of: The critical characteristics of each system that need to be controlled; and the parts of the information base that most need to be further developed through performance assessment or other efforts

  6. Risk based rulemaking and design - Proceed with caution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zachariadis, Panos; Psaraftis, Harilaos N.; Kontovas, Christos A.

    2007-01-01

    The trend towards a risk based regulatory framework at IMO and within classification societies is expanding while some voices claim that a full ship risk based scantlings design approach can be immediately implementable. This paper attempts to clarify some widely used, but confusing to many, noti...

  7. Designing a Physical Security System for Risk Reduction in a Hypothetical Nuclear Facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saleh, A.A.; Abd Elaziz, M.

    2017-01-01

    Physical security in a nuclear facility means detection, prevention and response to threat, the ft, sabotage, unauthorized access and illegal transfer involving radioactive and nuclear material. This paper proposes a physical security system designing concepts to reduce the risk associated with variant threats to a nuclear facility. This paper presents a study of the unauthorized removal and sabotage in a hypothetical nuclear facility considering deter, delay and response layers. More over, the study involves performing any required upgrading to the security system by investigating the nuclear facility layout and considering all physical security layers design to enhance the weakness for risk reduction

  8. Acceptable risk as a basis for design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vrijling, J.K.; Hengel, W. van; Houben, R.J.

    1998-01-01

    Historically, human civilisations have striven to protect themselves against natural and man-made hazards. The degree of protection is a matter of political choice. Today this choice should be expressed in terms of risk and acceptable probability of failure to form the basis of the probabilistic design of the protection. It is additionally argued that the choice for a certain technology and the connected risk is made in a cost-benefit framework. The benefits and the costs including risk are weighed in the decision process. A set of rules for the evaluation of risk is proposed and tested in cases. The set of rules leads to technical advice in a question that has to be decided politically

  9. HEALTHY study rationale, design and methods: Moderating risk of type 2 diabetes in multi-ethnic middle school students

    Science.gov (United States)

    The HEALTHY primary prevention trial was designed and implemented in response to the growing numbers of children and adolescents being diagnosed with type 2 diabetes. The objective was to moderate risk factors for type 2 diabetes. Modifiable risk factors measured were indicators of adiposity and gly...

  10. Designing SQCRA as a Software to Semi-quantitative Chemical Risk Assessment in Workplace

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Karimi

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Background & Objectives : The aim of chemical risk assessment is to identify and evaluate risks originated from chemicals usages. This study aims to design a practical tool for facilitating chemical risk assessment. Methods: The proposed software was derived from chemical risk assessment method which was recommended by Ministry of Human Resources of Malaysia. All of the processes in question are designed in operating system software. Based on some revisions, this software was developed using Visual Basic (VB titled as SQCRA. The developed software was used for chemical risk assessment in Narges Vegetale Oil Company in Shiraz (center of Iran. Result: The output of software showed that the level of risk derived from sulfuric acid, phosphoric acid, aluminum sulphate, nickel catalyst, acetic acid used as a raw material were 2.4, 2.84, 2.3, 3.5 and 2.66, respectively. Moreover, risk rank and proposed control methods for each of these materials were determined. Conclusions : The developed software calculates the health risk level based on the degree of hazard and exposure in shorttime and without using risk matrix and chemical formula. After determining the risk rank, the software proposes the control procedures to reduce occupational exposure.

  11. Modeling risk and uncertainty in designing reverse logistics problem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aida Nazari Gooran

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Increasing attention to environmental problems and social responsibility lead to appear reverse logistic (RL issues in designing supply chain which, in most recently, has received considerable attention from both academicians and practitioners. In this paper, a multi-product reverse logistic network design model is developed; then a hybrid method including Chance-constrained programming, Genetic algorithm and Monte Carlo simulation, are proposed to solve the developed model. The proposed model is solved for risk-averse and risk-seeking decision makers by conditional value at risk, sum of the excepted value and standard deviation, respectively. Comparisons of the results show that minimizing the costs had no direct relation with the kind of decision makers; however, in the most cases, risk-seeking decision maker gained more return products than risk-averse ones. It is clear that by increasing returned products to the chain, production costs of new products and material will be reduced and also by this act, environmental benefits will be created.

  12. The 'Antiretrovirals, Sexual Transmission Risk and Attitudes' (ASTRA study. Design, methods and participant characteristics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew Speakman

    Full Text Available Life expectancy for people diagnosed with HIV has improved dramatically however the number of new infections in the UK remains high. Understanding patterns of sexual behaviour among people living with diagnosed HIV, and the factors associated with having condom-less sex, is important for informing HIV prevention strategies and clinical care. In addition, in view of the current interest in a policy of early antiretroviral treatment (ART for all people diagnosed with HIV in the UK, it is of particular importance to assess whether ART use is associated with increased levels of condom-less sex. In this context the ASTRA study was designed to investigate current sexual activity, and attitudes to HIV transmission risk, in a large unselected sample of HIV-infected patients under care in the UK. The study also gathered background information on demographic, socio-economic, lifestyle and disease-related characteristics, and physical and psychological symptoms, in order to identify other key factors impacting on HIV patients and the behaviours which underpin transmission. In this paper we describe the study rationale, design, methods, response rate and the demographic characteristics of the participants. People diagnosed with HIV infection attending 8 UK HIV out-patient clinics in 2011-2012 were invited to participate in the study. Those who agreed to participate completed a confidential, self-administered pen-and-paper questionnaire, and their latest CD4 count and viral load test results were recorded. During the study period, 5112 eligible patients were invited to take part in the study and 3258 completed questionnaires were obtained, representing a response rate of 64% of eligible patients. The study includes 2248 men who have sex with men (MSM, 373 heterosexual men and 637 women. Future results from ASTRA will be a key resource for understanding HIV transmission within the UK, targeting prevention efforts, and informing clinical care of individuals

  13. Case-Cohort Studies: Design and Applicability to Hand Surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vojvodic, Miliana; Shafarenko, Mark; McCabe, Steven J

    2018-04-24

    Observational studies are common research strategies in hand surgery. The case-cohort design offers an efficient and resource-friendly method for risk assessment and outcomes analysis. Case-cohorts remain underrepresented in upper extremity research despite several practical and economic advantages over case-control studies. This report outlines the purpose, utility, and structure of the case-cohort design and offers a sample research question to demonstrate its value to risk estimation for adverse surgical outcomes. The application of well-designed case-cohort studies is advocated in an effort to improve the quality and quantity of observational research evidence in hand and upper extremity surgery. Copyright © 2018 American Society for Surgery of the Hand. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Development of risk benefit structural design method for innovative reactor plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoshio Kamishima; Tai Asayama; Yukio Takahashi; Masanori Tashimo; Hideo Machida; Yomomi Otani; Yasuharu Chuman

    2005-01-01

    The development of innovative nuclear plants where the energy in the future is carried out in Japan. The design method based on a risk benefit of having maintained mitigation of a risk and the improvement in economy is called for, in order to realize the national innovative nuclear plants. Main key technologies of the risk benefit structural design method are crack propagation evaluation technology and structural reliability evaluation technology. This research aims at pulling up these two technologies on an engineering practical use level. In this paper, requirements from the design of typical innovative nuclear plants and research plan are shown.(authors)

  15. 280 GHz Gyro-BWO design study: Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1988-07-01

    This report summarizes the results of a design study of a 280 GHz Gyro-BWO tunable source. The purpose of this study is to identify and propose viable design alternatives for any significant technological risk associated with building an operational BWO system. The tunable Gyro-BWO system will have three major components: a Gyro-BWO microwave tube, a superconducting magnet, and a power supply/modulator. The design tasks for this study in order of decreasing importance are: design and specification of the superconducting magnet; preliminary design and layout of a Gyro-BWO microwave tube; and specification for the power supply/modulator. 2 refs., 4 figs

  16. Homocysteine Slovakia study: study design and occurrence of hyperhomocysteinaemia and other risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lietava, J; B, B Vohnout; Dukat, A; Fodor, G J

    2012-01-01

    Slovakia belong to the European Union countries with the high incidence and prevalence of cardiovascular diseases in general and IHD in particular. Homocystein-Slovakia is crossectional population study realised in subjects in high risk age 35-75 years in two groups. The first consists of patients with verified stable ischemic heart disease (IHD) (M= 152; F = 167) aged 60.8±9.37 yrs (males) res. 63.1±7.56 years (females) (NS) who were randomly selected from two cardiological registrars. Second population was formed by general population who were dichotomised according their medical records into IHD patients (M= 31, F= 53) and apparently healthy controls (M= 47; F = 55), the later in significantly younger age as patients, but in same age for intergender comparison 49.6±10.3 vs 46.6±9.2 yrs (NS). We found very high prevalence of classic as well as newer risk factors and risk markers both in IHD patients and in controls. Increased homocysteinen (Hcy >15 µmo/l for males and Hcy >13 µmo/l for females) was found even in 32.9 % of patients and 13.6 % of controls (pHomocystein Slovakia study found very high prevalence of hyperhomocysteinemia in patients with stable ischemic heart disease. Even the prevalence in healthy controls correspond to data reported for MI patients in Western countries. Vitamins regulating metabolism of homocysteine also shown high prevalence, however, without differences between IHD patients and controls (Tab. 5, Fig. 1, Ref. 27).

  17. Smart Meter Tariff Design to Minimise Wholesale Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Rogers, William; Carroll, Paula

    2016-01-01

    Smart metering in electricity markets offers an opportunity to explore more diversetariff structures. In this article a Genetic Algorithm (GA) is used to design Time ofUse tariffs that minimise the wholesale risk to the supplier in residential markets.Residential demand and the System Marginal Price of Ireland's Single ElectricityMarket are simulated to estimate the wholesale risk associated with each tariff.

  18. Risk management in architectural design control of uncertainty over building use and maintenance

    CERN Document Server

    Martani, Claudio

    2015-01-01

    This book analyzes the risk management process in relation to building design and operation and on this basis proposes a method and a set of tools that will improve the planning and evaluation of design solutions in order to control risks in the operation and management phase. Particular attention is paid to the relationship between design choices and the long-term performance of buildings in meeting requirements expressing user and client needs. A risk dashboard is presented as a risk measurement framework that identifies and addresses areas of uncertainty surrounding the satisfaction of particularly relevant requirements over time. This risk dashboard will assist both designers and clients. It will support designers by enabling them to improve the maintainability of project performance and will aid clients both in devising a brief that emphasizes the most relevant aspects of maintainability and in evaluating project proposals according to long-term risks. The results of assessment of the proposed method and...

  19. Risk-informed approach for safety, safeguards, and security (3S) by design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suzuki, Mitsutoshi; Burr, Tom; Howell, John

    2011-01-01

    Over several decades the nuclear energy society worldwide has developed safety assessment methodology based on probabilistic risk analysis for incorporating its benefit into design and accident prevention for nuclear reactors. Although safeguards and security communities have different histories and technical aspects compared to safety, risk assessment as a supplement to their current requirements could be developed to promote synergism between Safety, Safeguards, and Security (3S) and to install effective countermeasures in the design of complex nuclear fuel cycle facilities. Since the 3S initiative was raised by G8 countries at Hokkaido Toyako-Summit in 2008, one approach to developing synergism in a 3S By Design (3SBD) process has been the application of risk-oriented assessment methodology. In the existing regulations of safeguards and security, a risk notion has already been considered for inherent threat and hazard recognition. To integrate existing metrics into a risk-oriented approach, several mathematical methods have already been surveyed, with attention to the scarcity of intentional acts in the case of safeguards and the sparseness of actual event data. A two-dimensional probability distribution composed of measurement error and incidence probabilities has been proposed to formalize inherent difficulties in the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards criteria. In particular, the incidence probability that is difficult to estimate has been explained using a Markov model and game theory. In this work, a feasibility study of 3SBD is performed for an aqueous reprocessing process, and synergetic countermeasures are presented for preliminary demonstration of 3SBD. Although differences and conflicts between individual 'S' communities exist, the integrated approach would be valuable for optimization and balance between the 3S design features as well as for effective and efficient implementation under existing regulation frameworks. In addition

  20. Flight Path Recovery System (FPRS) design study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1978-09-01

    The study contained herein presents a design for a Flight Path Recovery System (FPPS) for use in the NURE Program which will be more accurate than systems presently used, provide position location data in digital form suitable for automatic data processing, and provide for flight path recovery in a more economic and operationally suitable manner. The design is based upon the use of presently available hardware and technoloy, and presents little, it any, development risk. In addition, a Flight Test Plan designed to test the FPRS design concept is presented

  1. Flight Path Recovery System (FPRS) design study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1978-09-01

    The study contained herein presents a design for a Flight Path Recovery System (FPPS) for use in the NURE Program which will be more accurate than systems presently used, provide position location data in digital form suitable for automatic data processing, and provide for flight path recovery in a more economic and operationally suitable manner. The design is based upon the use of presently available hardware and technoloy, and presents little, it any, development risk. In addition, a Flight Test Plan designed to test the FPRS design concept is presented.

  2. Risk calculations for energy conservation technologies: the likelihood of realizing design-phase expectations in new construction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Greden, Lara; Vaidya, Prasad; Baker, Chris; Eijadi, David; McDougall, Tom [The Weidt Group (United States)

    2007-07-01

    The risk that a technology will not be implemented or operated as designed is a significant barrier that impedes owners from adopting new energy-conserving building technologies. This results in a feedback loop that encourages decision makers to minimize risk by sticking with the status quo, regardless of the environmental impact. Different technology categories have different levels and types of risks associated with them.This study assigns levels of risk to technologies by tracing a set of envelope systems, lighting designs, lighting controls, HVAC systems, and HVAC controls in a data set of 38 buildings from the design phase through the initial implementation phase. The likelihood that a technology gets implemented and works as expected is assessed, and risk factors for the various technologies are calculated. Explanations for the levels of risk are supported by interviews with third-party reviewers who serve to assist design teams and owners through the construction phase. Results show that daylighting technologies, including dimming daylighting controls, have the highest risk of not being implemented - when otherwise chosen at the selection phase - while roof insulation and lighting designs are most likely to be fully and correctly implemented. Analysis comparing the risk to the energy conservation opportunity indicates the need for prioritization and support during the design and construction phases to realize expected levels of energy conservation. Overall, the interviewees said the most common reasons for lower than expected energy savings are that energy conservation measures were cut-out during value engineering or cut-out due to later decisions that a technology was functionally risky. This research supports large scale investments in energy conservation technologies for buildings through rebate programs, code improvements, and design guides created by large owners. It identifies technologies that need a higher degree of building management effort and

  3. Inherent risk and organisational design in European tort law

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    W.H. van Boom (Willem)

    2009-01-01

    textabstractThis paper is devoted to a complex set of issues relating to the functions of tort law in distinguishing acceptable and unacceptable risks. Often, such risks are brought about by deliberate organisational design choice. On many occasions, legislators and courts are called upon to assess

  4. Engineering study for ISSTRS design concept

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hertzel, J.S.

    1997-01-31

    Los Alamos Technical Associates, Inc., is pleased to transmit the attached Conceptual Design Package for the Initial Single Shell Tank Retrieval System (ISSTRS), 90% Conceptual Design Review. The package includes the following: (1) ISSTRS Trade Studies: (a) Retrieval Facility Cooling Requirements; (b) Equipment Re-usability between Project W-320 and Tanks 241-C-103 and 241-C-1 05; (c) Sluice Line Options; and (d) Options for the Location of Tanks AX-103 and A-1 02 HVAC Equipment; (2) Drawings; (3) Risk Management Plan; (4) 0850 Interface Control Document; (5) Requirements Traceability Report; and (6) Project Design Specification.

  5. POlish-Norwegian Study (PONS): research on chronic non-communicable diseases in European high risk countries - study design.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zatoński, Witold A; Mańczuk, Marta

    2011-01-01

    A large-scale population study of health and disease would represent the most powerful tool to address these important issues in Poland. The aim is to extensively survey the study population with respect to important factors related to health and wellbeing, and subsequently, the intention is to follow-up the population for important health outcomes, including the incidence and mortality of cancer, cardiovascular disease, and other major causes of morbidity and mortality. The infrastructure for establishing a large cohort of people in Poland is needed; therefore, the PONS (Polish-Norwegian Study) project represents an eff ort to establish such infrastructure. The PONS Study is enrolling individuals aged 45-64 years. Structured lifestyle and food frequency questionnaires are administered. Study participants undergo medical check-up, anthropometric measurements and provide blood and urine sample for long-term storage. Fasting glucose and lipids profile are checked in the laboratory. This report describes the design, justification and methodology of the presented prospective cohort study. Recruitment of participants began in September 2010, and by the end of 2011 it is planned to achieve a total of between 10,000 – 15,000 participants. The PONS study is the fi rst prospective cohort study with blood and urine collection ever conducted in Central and Eastern Europe. It will provide reliable new data on both established and emerging risk factors for several major chronic diseases in a range of different circumstances.

  6. Risk based seismic design criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kennedy, R.P.

    1999-01-01

    In order to develop a risk based seismic design criteria the following four issues must be addressed: (1) What target annual probability of seismic induced unacceptable performance is acceptable? (2) What minimum seismic margin is acceptable? (3) Given the decisions made under Issues 1 and 2, at what annual frequency of exceedance should the safe-shutdown-earthquake (SSE) ground motion be defined? (4) What seismic design criteria should be established to reasonably achieve the seismic margin defined under Issue 2? The first issue is purely a policy decision and is not addressed in this paper. Each of the other three issues are addressed. Issues 2 and 3 are integrally tied together so that a very large number of possible combinations of responses to these two issues can be used to achieve the target goal defined under Issue 1. Section 2 lays out a combined approach to these two issues and presents three potentially attractive combined resolutions of these two issues which reasonably achieves the target goal. The remainder of the paper discusses an approach which can be used to develop seismic design criteria aimed at achieving the desired seismic margin defined in resolution of Issue 2. Suggestions for revising existing seismic design criteria to more consistently achieve the desired seismic margin are presented. (orig.)

  7. Probabilistic Modeling of Seismic Risk Based Design for a Dual System Structure

    OpenAIRE

    Sidi, Indra Djati

    2017-01-01

    The dual system structure concept has gained popularity in the construction of high-rise buildings over the last decades. Meanwhile, earthquake engineering design provisions for buildings have moved from the uniform hazard concept to the uniform risk concept upon recognizing the uncertainties involved in the earthquake resistance of concrete structures. In this study, a probabilistic model for the evaluation of such risk is proposed for a dual system structure consisting of shear walls or cor...

  8. Acceptable risk in reactor safety studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benjamin, J.R.; Shinozuka, M.; Shah, H.C.

    1975-01-01

    Acceptable risk is defined in terms of its five basic parameters: the hazard or problem; the probability of occurrence; the consequence; the possible alternative actions; and the value system of the community or the society. The problem of consistency in design at a site and between differing sites is discussed and solutions are suggested. Techniques for consistent deterministic and probabilistic setting limits and design standards are illustrated using data from AEC Reactor Safety Study, WASH-1400. The influence of level of consequence is discussed and a general methodology for decision analysis in resource allocation problem is briefly introduced and illustrated. The concept of acceptable risk is put in a quantitative format that can be used by engineers and planners. Bayesian statistical methods are introduced to develop the methodologies

  9. Application of probabilistic risk assessment to advanced liquid metal reactor designs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carroll, W.P.; Temme, M.I.

    1987-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (US DOE) has been active in the development and application of probabilistic risk assessment methods within its liquid metal breeder reactor development program for the past eleven years. These methods have been applied to comparative risk evaluations, the selection of design features for reactor concepts, the selection and emphasis of research and development programs, and regulatory discussions. The application of probabilistic methods to reactors which are in the conceptual design stage presents unique data base, modeling, and timing challenges, and excellent opportunities to improve the final design. We provide here the background and insights on the experience which the US DOE liquid metal breeder reactor program has had in its application of probabilistic methods to the Clinch River Breeder Reactor Plant project, the Conceptual Design State of the Large Development Plant, and updates on this design. Plans for future applications of probabilistic risk assessment methods are also discussed. The US DOE is embarking on an innovative design program for liquid metal reactors. (author)

  10. An Introduction to Risk with a Focus on Design Diversity in the Stockpile

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Noone, Bailey C [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2012-08-13

    The maintenance and security of nuclear weapons in the stockpile involves decisions based on risk analysis and quantitative measures of risk. Risk is a factor in all decisions, a particularly important factor in decisions of a large scale. One example of high-risk decisions we will discuss is the risk involved in design diversity within the stockpile of nuclear weapons arsenal. Risk is defined as 'possibility of loss or injury' and the 'degree of probability of such loss' (Kaplan and Garrick 12). To introduce the risk involved with maintaining the weapons stockpile we will draw a parallel to the design and maintenance of Southwest Airlines fleet of Boeing 737 planes. The clear benefits for cost savings in maintenance of having a uniform fleet are what historically drove Southwest to have only Boeing 737s in their fleet. Less money and resources are need for maintenance, training, and materials. Naturally, risk accompanies those benefits. A defect in a part of the plane indicates a potential defect in that same part in all the planes of the fleet. As a result, safety, business, and credibility are at risk. How much variety or diversity does the fleet need to mitigate that risk? With that question in mind, a balance is needed to accommodate the different risks and benefits of the situation. In a similar way, risk is analyzed for the design and maintenance of nuclear weapons in the stockpile. In conclusion, risk must be as low as possible when it comes to the nuclear weapons stockpile. Design and care to keep the stockpile healthy involves all aspects of risk management. Design diversity is a method that helps to mitigate risk, and to help balance options in stockpile stewardship.

  11. The effects of local control station design variation on plant risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Hara, J.

    1989-01-01

    The existence of human engineering deficiencies at local control stations (LCSs) was addressed in a study (NUREG/CR-3696) conducted by the Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL). PNL concluded that the existence of these human factors deficiencies at safety significant LCSs increases the potential for operator errors that could be detrimental to plant and public safety. However, PNL did not specific analysis to evaluate the effects of LCS design variations on human performance, on plant risk, or on the cost benefit feasibility of upgrading LCSs. The purpose of the present investigation was to conduct such an analysis. The specific objectives of the research were (1) to further define important local control stations, human factors related LCS design variations, and typical human engineering deficiencies (HEDs) at LCSs; (2) to determine the effect of LCS design variations on human performance, i.e., on risk-significant human errors (HEs); (3) to determine the effect of LCS-induced human performance variation on plant risk as measured by core melt frequency (CMF); and (4) to determine whether LCS improvements (upgrades in LCS design to mitigate HEDs) are feasible in a scoping-type value-impact analysis. The results can be summarized as follows. There was an overall effect of LCS variations on human performance. The transition from the worst LCS configuration to the best resulted in an absolute reduction or improvement of 0.82 in mean HEP (reduction by a factor of 20). The transition from low to high levels of FC was associated with a 0.46 (86%) reduction in mean HEP. The majority of the effect was accounted for in the transition from the low to medium levels. The Panel Design dimension also had an effect on human performance although not as large as functional centralization. Upgrading from a low to high panel design resulted in a 0.29 (69%) reduction in mean HEP

  12. Towards Improved Considerations of Risk in Seismic Design (Plinius Medal Lecture)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sullivan, T. J.

    2012-04-01

    The aftermath of recent earthquakes is a reminder that seismic risk is a very relevant issue for our communities. Implicit within the seismic design standards currently in place around the world is that minimum acceptable levels of seismic risk will be ensured through design in accordance with the codes. All the same, none of the design standards specify what the minimum acceptable level of seismic risk actually is. Instead, a series of deterministic limit states are set which engineers then demonstrate are satisfied for their structure, typically through the use of elastic dynamic analyses adjusted to account for non-linear response using a set of empirical correction factors. From the early nineties the seismic engineering community has begun to recognise numerous fundamental shortcomings with such seismic design procedures in modern codes. Deficiencies include the use of elastic dynamic analysis for the prediction of inelastic force distributions, the assignment of uniform behaviour factors for structural typologies irrespective of the structural proportions and expected deformation demands, and the assumption that hysteretic properties of a structure do not affect the seismic displacement demands, amongst other things. In light of this a number of possibilities have emerged for improved control of risk through seismic design, with several innovative displacement-based seismic design methods now well developed. For a specific seismic design intensity, such methods provide a more rational means of controlling the response of a structure to satisfy performance limit states. While the development of such methodologies does mark a significant step forward for the control of seismic risk, they do not, on their own, identify the seismic risk of a newly designed structure. In the U.S. a rather elaborate performance-based earthquake engineering (PBEE) framework is under development, with the aim of providing seismic loss estimates for new buildings. The PBEE framework

  13. Recommendations on the use and design of risk matrices

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Duijm, Nijs Jan

    2015-01-01

    of the risk matrix. The objective of this paper is to explore these weaknesses, and provide recommendations for the use and design of risk matrices. The paper reviews the few relevant publications and adds some observations of its own in order to emphasize existing recommendations and add some suggestions...... of its own. The recommendations cover a range of issues, among them: the relation between coloring the risk matrix and the definition of risk and major hazard aversion; the qualitative, subjective assessment of likelihood and consequence; the scaling of the discrete likelihood and consequence categories...

  14. Coordinating resources for prospective medication risk management of older home care clients in primary care: procedure development and RCT study design for demonstrating its effectiveness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toivo, Terhi; Dimitrow, Maarit; Puustinen, Juha; Savela, Eeva; Pelkonen, Katariina; Kiuru, Valtteri; Suominen, Tuula; Kinnunen, Sirkka; Uunimäki, Mira; Kivelä, Sirkka-Liisa; Leikola, Saija; Airaksinen, Marja

    2018-03-16

    The magnitude of safety risks related to medications of the older adults has been evidenced by numerous studies, but less is known of how to manage and prevent these risks in different health care settings. The aim of this study was to coordinate resources for prospective medication risk management of home care clients ≥ 65 years in primary care and to develop a study design for demonstrating effectiveness of the procedure. Health care units involved in the study are from primary care in Lohja, Southern Finland: home care (191 consented clients), the public healthcare center, and a private community pharmacy. System based risk management theory and action research method was applied to construct the collaborative procedure utilizing each profession's existing resources in medication risk management of older home care clients. An inventory of clinical measures in usual clinical practice and systematic review of rigorous study designs was utilized in effectiveness study design. The new coordinated medication management model (CoMM) has the following 5 stages: 1) practical nurses are trained to identify clinically significant drug-related problems (DRPs) during home visits and report those to the clinical pharmacist. Clinical pharmacist prepares the cases for 2) an interprofessional triage meeting (50-70 cases/meeting of 2 h) where decisions are made on further action, e.g., more detailed medication reviews, 3) community pharmacists conduct necessary medication reviews and each patients' physician makes final decisions on medication changes needed. The final stages concern 4) implementation and 5) follow-up of medication changes. Randomized controlled trial (RCT) was developed to demonstrate the effectiveness of the procedure. The developed procedure is feasible for screening and reviewing medications of a high number of older home care clients to identify clients with severe DRPs and provide interventions to solve them utilizing existing primary care resources

  15. Study protocol: the development of a randomised controlled trial testing a postcard intervention designed to reduce suicide risk among young help-seekers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    McGorry Patrick

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Suicidal behaviour and deliberate self harm are common among adolescents. Limited evidence exists regarding interventions that can reduce risk; however research indicates that maintaining contact either via letter or postcard with at-risk adults following discharge from services can reduce risk. The aim of the study is to test a postcard intervention among people aged 15-24 who presented to mental health services but are not accepted, yet are at risk of suicide. Methods/design The study is a 3-year randomised controlled trial conducted at Orygen Youth Health Research Centre in Melbourne Australia. Participants are young help-seekers aged 15-24 who are at risk of suicide. Participants will be recruited over a 12 month period. The intervention comprises a regular postcard to be sent monthly for 12 months. The postcard enquires after their well being and includes information regarding individual sources of help and evidence-based self help strategies. Participants are assessed at baseline, 12 and 18 months. Discussion This paper describes the development of a study which aims to reduce suicide risk in a sample of young help-seekers. If effective, this intervention could have significant clinical and research implications for a population who can be hard to treat and difficult to research. Trial Registration The study was registered with the Australian Clinical Trials Registry; number: ACTRN012606000274572.

  16. Probabilistic risk criteria and their application to nuclear chemical plant design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arthur, T.; Barnes, D.S.; Brown, M.L.; Taig, A.R.; Johnston, B.D.; Hayns, M.

    1989-01-01

    A nuclear chemical plant safety strategy is presented. The use of risk criteria in design is demonstrated by reference to a particular area of the plant. This involves the application of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) techniques. Computer programs developed by the UK Atomic Energy Authority (UKAEA) at its Safety and Reliability Directorate (SRD) are used toe valuate and analyze the resultant fault trees. the magnitude of releases are estimated and individual and societal risks determined. The paper concludes that the application of PRA to a nuclear chemical plant can be structured in such a way as to allow a designer to work to quantitative risk targets

  17. A Risk Management Framework to Characterize Black Swan Risks: A Case Study of Lightning Effects on Insensitive High Explosives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanders, Gary A.

    Effective and efficient risk management processes include the use of high fidelity modeling and simulation during the concept exploration phase as part of the technology and risk assessment activities, with testing and evaluation tasks occurring in later design development phases. However, some safety requirements and design architectures may be dominated by the low probability/high consequence "Black Swan" vulnerabilities that require very early testing to characterize and efficiently mitigate. Failure to address these unique risks has led to catastrophic systems failures including the space shuttle Challenger, Deepwater Horizon, Fukushima nuclear reactor, and Katrina dike failures. Discovering and addressing these risks later in the design and development process can be very costly or even lead to project cancellation. This paper examines the need for risk management process adoption of early hazard phenomenology testing to inform the technical risk assessment, requirements definition and conceptual design. A case study of the lightning design vulnerability of the insensitive high explosives being used in construction, mining, demolition, and defense industries will be presented to examine the impact of this vulnerability testing during the concept exploration phase of the design effort. While these insensitive high explosives are far less sensitive to accidental initiation by fire, impact, friction or even electrical stimuli, their full range of sensitivities have not been characterized and ensuring safe engineering design and operations during events such as lightning storms requires vulnerability testing during the risk assessment phase.

  18. Designing Visual Aids That Promote Risk Literacy: A Systematic Review of Health Research and Evidence-Based Design Heuristics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia-Retamero, Rocio; Cokely, Edward T

    2017-06-01

    Background Effective risk communication is essential for informed decision making. Unfortunately, many people struggle to understand typical risk communications because they lack essential decision-making skills. Objective The aim of this study was to review the literature on the effect of numeracy on risk literacy, decision making, and health outcomes, and to evaluate the benefits of visual aids in risk communication. Method We present a conceptual framework describing the influence of numeracy on risk literacy, decision making, and health outcomes, followed by a systematic review of the benefits of visual aids in risk communication for people with different levels of numeracy and graph literacy. The systematic review covers scientific research published between January 1995 and April 2016, drawn from the following databases: Web of Science, PubMed, PsycINFO, ERIC, Medline, and Google Scholar. Inclusion criteria were investigation of the effect of numeracy and/or graph literacy, and investigation of the effect of visual aids or comparison of their effect with that of numerical information. Thirty-six publications met the criteria, providing data on 27,885 diverse participants from 60 countries. Results Transparent visual aids robustly improved risk understanding in diverse individuals by encouraging thorough deliberation, enhancing cognitive self-assessment, and reducing conceptual biases in memory. Improvements in risk understanding consistently produced beneficial changes in attitudes, behavioral intentions, trust, and healthy behaviors. Visual aids were found to be particularly beneficial for vulnerable and less skilled individuals. Conclusion Well-designed visual aids tend to be highly effective tools for improving informed decision making among diverse decision makers. We identify five categories of practical, evidence-based guidelines for heuristic evaluation and design of effective visual aids.

  19. Issues in risk analysis of passive LWR designs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Youngblood, R.W.; Pratt, W.T.; Amico, P.J.; Gallagher, D.

    1992-01-01

    This paper discusses issues which bear on the question of how safety is to be demonstrated for ''simplified passive'' light water reactor (LWR) designs. First, a very simplified comparison is made between certain systems in today's plants. comparable systems in evolutionary designs, and comparable systems in the simplified passives. in order to introduce the issues. This discussion is not intended to describe the designs comprehensively, but is offered only to show why certain issues seem to be important in these particular designs. Next, an important class of accident sequences is described; finally, based on this discussion, some priorities in risk analysis are presented and discussed

  20. Risk of Infective Endocarditis After Invasive Dental Treatments: A Case-Only Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Tzu-Ting; Yeh, Yi-Chun; Chien, Kuo-Liong; Lai, Mei-Shu; Tu, Yu-Kang

    2018-04-19

    Background -Invasive dental treatments (IDTs) can yield temporary bacteremia and has therefore been considered a potential risk factor of infective endocarditis (IE). It is hypothesized that, through the trauma caused by IDTs, bacteria gain entry to the bloodstream and may attach to abnormal heart valves or damaged heart tissue, giving rise to IE. However, the association between IDTs and IE remains controversial. The aim of this study is to estimate the association between IDTs and IE. Methods -The data in this study were obtained from the Health Insurance Database in Taiwan. We selected two case-only study designs, case-crossover and self-controlled case series, to analyze the data. The advantage of these methods is that confounding factors which do not vary with time are adjusted for implicitly. In the case-crossover design, conditional logistic regression model with exposure to IDTs was used to estimate the risks of IE following an IDT with 4, 8, 12, and 16 weeks delay, respectively. In the self-controlled case series design, conditional Poisson regression model was used to estimate the risk of IE for the risk periods of 1-4, 5-8, 9-12, and 13-16 weeks following an IDT. Results -In total, 9120 and 8181 IE patients were included in case-crossover design and self-controlled case series design, respectively. In case-crossover design, 277 cases and 249 controls received IDTs during the exposure period, and the odds ratio was 1.12 (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 0.94-1.34) for 4 weeks. In self-controlled case series design, we observed that 407 IE occurred during the first four weeks after IDTs, and the age-adjusted incidence rate ratio was 1.14 (95% CI: 1.02-1.26) for 1-4 weeks after IDTs. Conclusions -In both study designs, we did not observe a clinically larger risk for IE in the short periods after IDTs. We also found no association between IDTs and IE among high-risk patients. Therefore, antibiotic prophylaxis for prevention of IE is not required for the

  1. Designing and operating infrastructure for nonstationary flood risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doss-Gollin, J.; Farnham, D. J.; Lall, U.

    2017-12-01

    Climate exhibits organized low-frequency and regime-like variability at multiple time scales, causing the risk associated with climate extremes such as floods and droughts to vary in time. Despite broad recognition of this nonstationarity, there has been little theoretical development of ideas for the design and operation of infrastructure considering the regime structure of such changes and their potential predictability. We use paleo streamflow reconstructions to illustrate an approach to the design and operation of infrastructure to address nonstationary flood and drought risk. Specifically, we consider the tradeoff between flood control and conservation storage, and develop design and operation principles for allocating these storage volumes considering both a m-year project planning period and a n-year historical sampling record. As n increases, the potential uncertainty in probabilistic estimates of the return periods associated with the T-year extreme event decreases. As the duration m of the future operation period decreases, the uncertainty associated with the occurrence of the T-year event also increases. Finally, given the quasi-periodic nature of the system it may be possible to offer probabilistic predictions of the conditions in the m-year future period, especially if m is small. In the context of such predictions, one can consider that a m-year prediction may have lower bias, but higher variance, than would be associated with using a stationary estimate from the preceding n years. This bias-variance trade-off, and the potential for considering risk management for multiple values of m, provides an interesting system design challenge. We use wavelet-based simulation models in a Bayesian framework to estimate these biases and uncertainty distributions and devise a risk-optimized decision rule for the allocation of flood and conservation storage. The associated theoretical development also provides a methodology for the sizing of storage for new

  2. Design Life Level: Quantifying risk in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rootzén, Holger; Katz, Richard W.

    2013-09-01

    In the past, the concepts of return levels and return periods have been standard and important tools for engineering design. However, these concepts are based on the assumption of a stationary climate and do not apply to a changing climate, whether local or global. In this paper, we propose a refined concept, Design Life Level, which quantifies risk in a nonstationary climate and can serve as the basis for communication. In current practice, typical hydrologic risk management focuses on a standard (e.g., in terms of a high quantile corresponding to the specified probability of failure for a single year). Nevertheless, the basic information needed for engineering design should consist of (i) the design life period (e.g., the next 50 years, say 2015-2064); and (ii) the probability (e.g., 5% chance) of a hazardous event (typically, in the form of the hydrologic variable exceeding a high level) occurring during the design life period. Capturing both of these design characteristics, the Design Life Level is defined as an upper quantile (e.g., 5%) of the distribution of the maximum value of the hydrologic variable (e.g., water level) over the design life period. We relate this concept and variants of it to existing literature and illustrate how they, and some useful complementary plots, may be computed and used. One practically important consideration concerns quantifying the statistical uncertainty in estimating a high quantile under nonstationarity.

  3. Incorporating risk measures in closed-loop supply chain network design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Soleimani, H.; Seyyed-Esfahani, M.; Govindan, Kannan

    2014-01-01

    This paper considers a location-allocation problem in a closed-loop supply chain (CLSC) with two extensions: first, demand and prices of new and return products are regarded as non-deterministic parameters and second, the objective function is developed from expected profit to three types of mean......-risk ones. Indeed, design and planning an integrated CLSC in real-world volatile markets is an important and necessary issue. Further, risk-neutral approaches, which are considered expected values, are not efficient for such uncertain conditions. Hence, this paper, copes with the design and planning problem...

  4. Seismic hazard, risk, and design for South America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petersen, Mark D.; Harmsen, Stephen; Jaiswal, Kishor; Rukstales, Kenneth S.; Luco, Nicolas; Haller, Kathleen; Mueller, Charles; Shumway, Allison

    2018-01-01

    We calculate seismic hazard, risk, and design criteria across South America using the latest data, models, and methods to support public officials, scientists, and engineers in earthquake risk mitigation efforts. Updated continental scale seismic hazard models are based on a new seismicity catalog, seismicity rate models, evaluation of earthquake sizes, fault geometry and rate parameters, and ground‐motion models. Resulting probabilistic seismic hazard maps show peak ground acceleration, modified Mercalli intensity, and spectral accelerations at 0.2 and 1 s periods for 2%, 10%, and 50% probabilities of exceedance in 50 yrs. Ground shaking soil amplification at each site is calculated by considering uniform soil that is applied in modern building codes or by applying site‐specific factors based on VS30">VS30 shear‐wave velocities determined through a simple topographic proxy technique. We use these hazard models in conjunction with the Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) model to calculate economic and casualty risk. Risk is computed by incorporating the new hazard values amplified by soil, PAGER fragility/vulnerability equations, and LandScan 2012 estimates of population exposure. We also calculate building design values using the guidelines established in the building code provisions. Resulting hazard and associated risk is high along the northern and western coasts of South America, reaching damaging levels of ground shaking in Chile, western Argentina, western Bolivia, Peru, Ecuador, Colombia, Venezuela, and in localized areas distributed across the rest of the continent where historical earthquakes have occurred. Constructing buildings and other structures to account for strong shaking in these regions of high hazard and risk should mitigate losses and reduce casualties from effects of future earthquake strong ground shaking. National models should be developed by scientists and engineers in each country using the best

  5. Rationale, design and methods for the RIGHT Track Health Study: pathways from childhood self-regulation to cardiovascular risk in adolescence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laurie Wideman

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Cardiovascular risk factors during adolescence—including obesity, elevated lipids, altered glucose metabolism, hypertension, and elevated low-grade inflammation—is cause for serious concern and potentially impacts subsequent morbidity and mortality. Despite the importance of these cardiovascular risk factors, very little is known about their developmental origins in childhood. In addition, since adolescence is a time when individuals are navigating major life changes and gaining increasing autonomy from their parents or parental figures, it is a period when control over their own health behaviors (e.g. drug use, sleep, nutrition also increases. The primary aim of this paper is to describe the rationale, design and methods for the RIGHT Track Health Study. This study examines self-regulation as a key factor in the development of cardiovascular risk, and further explores health behaviors as an explanatory mechanism of this association. We also examine potential moderators (e.g. psychosocial adversities such as harsh parenting of this association. Method/design RIGHT Track is a longitudinal study that investigates social and emotional development. The RIGHT Track Health Study prospectively follows participants from age 2 through young adulthood in an effort to understand how self-regulatory behavior throughout childhood alters the trajectories of various cardiovascular risk factors during late adolescence via health behaviors. Individuals from RIGHT Track were re-contacted and invited to participate in adolescent data collection (~16.5, 17.5 and 18+ years old. Individuals completed assessments of body composition, anthropometric indicators, fitness testing (via peak oxygen consumption, heart rate variability during orthostatic challenge, 7-day accelerometry for physical activity and sleep, 24-h dietary recalls, and blood analysis for biomarkers related to metabolic syndrome, inflammatory status and various hormones and

  6. The rationale/design of the Guimarães/Vizela study: a multimodal population-based cohort study to determine global cardiovascular risk and disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cunha, Pedro Guimarães; Cotter, Jorge; Oliveira, Pedro; Vila, Isabel; Sousa, Nuno

    2014-06-01

    Cardiovascular disease and dementia are growing medical and social problems in aging societies. Appropriate knowledge of cardiovascular disease and cognitive decline risk factors (RFs) are critical for global CVR health preventive intervention. Many epidemiological studies use case definition based on data collected/measured in a single visit, a fact that can overestimate prevalence rates and distant from clinical practice demanding criteria. Portugal displays an elevated stroke mortality rate. However, population's global CV risk characterization is limited, namely, considering traditional/nontraditional RF and new intermediate phenotypes of CV and renal disease. Association of hemodynamic variables (pulse wave velocity and central blood pressure) with global CVR stratification, cognitive performance, and kidney disease are practically inexistent at a dwelling population level. After reviewing published data, we designed a population-based cohort study to analyze the prevalence of these cardiovascular RFs and intermediate phenotypes, using random sampling of adult dwellers living in 2 adjacent cities. Strict definition of phenotypes was planned: subjects were observed twice, and several hemodynamic and other biological variables measured at least 3 months apart. Three thousand thirty-eight subjects were enrolled, and extensive data collection (including central and peripheral blood pressure, pulse wave velocity), sample processing, and biobank edification were carried out. One thousand forty-seven cognitive evaluations were performed. Seeking for CV risk reclassification, early identification of subjects at risk, and evidence of early vascular aging and cognitive and renal function decline, using the strict daily clinical practice criteria, will lead to better resource allocation in preventive measures at a population level.

  7. Psychological and sociological approaches to study risk perception

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Renn, O [Kernforschungsanlage Juelich G.m.b.H. (Germany, F.R.). Programmgruppe Technik und Gesellschaft; Swaton, E [International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna (Austria). Joint IAEA-IIASA Risk Assessment Group

    1984-01-01

    Technological progress and its impacts on humankind has caused an increasing awareness of risk, and objective, statistical estimations are often inadequate to alleviate the public's fright and fear. Research on risk perception using psychological and sociological approaches is trying to bridge this gap. As a first step, a distinction must be made between the technical definition of risk (probability x consequences) and the social definition, in which additional parameters (source, dimensions, timeframe, exposure) need to be included. The methodology of risk assessment, though objective by design, is limited in the interpretability of its results, if the calculation of consequences does not take public perceptions and social effects into account. The problems and advantages of risk assessment are discussed, and the key questions for risk perception research are presented. Various techniques are available to study risk perception and attitudes towards risk; selection of a specific technique is determined by the objective of the research, namely sociological implications or psychological cognitions. Several empirical studies in both areas are presented and the results discussed.

  8. Psychological and sociological approaches to study risk perception

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Renn, O.; Swaton, E.

    1984-01-01

    Technological progress and its impacts on humankind has caused an increasing awareness of risk, and objective, statistical estimations are often inadequate to alleviate the public's fright and fear. Research on risk perception using psychological and sociological approaches is trying to bridge this gap. As a first step, a distinction must be made between the technical definition of risk (probability x consequences) and the social definition, in which additional parameters (source, dimensions, timeframe, exposure) need to be included. The methodology of risk assessment, though objective by design, is limited in the interpretability of its results, if the calculation of consequences does not take public perceptions and social effects into account. The problems and advantages of risk assessment are discussed, and the key questions for risk perception research are presented. Various techniques are available to study risk perception and attitudes towards risk; selection of a specific technique is determined by the objective of the research, namely sociological implications or psychological cognitions. Several empirical studies in both areas are presented and the results discussed. (author)

  9. The INTERPHONE study: design, epidemiological methods, and description of the study population

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cardis, Elisabeth; Richardson, Lesley; Deltour, Isabelle

    2007-01-01

    . This paper describes the study design and methods and the main characteristics of the study population. INTERPHONE is the largest case-control study to date investigating risks related to mobile phone use and to other potential risk factors for the tumours of interest and includes 2,765 glioma, 2......The very rapid worldwide increase in mobile phone use in the last decade has generated considerable interest in the possible health effects of exposure to radio frequency (RF) fields. A multinational case-control study, INTERPHONE, was set-up to investigate whether mobile phone use increases...... the risk of cancer and, more specifically, whether the RF fields emitted by mobile phones are carcinogenic. The study focused on tumours arising in the tissues most exposed to RF fields from mobile phones: glioma, meningioma, acoustic neurinoma and parotid gland tumours. In addition to a detailed history...

  10. Nanosafety by design: risks from nanocomposite/nanowaste combustion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouillard, Jacques X.; R'Mili, Badr; Moranviller, Daniel; Vignes, Alexis; Le Bihan, Olivier; Ustache, Aurelien; Bomfim, Joao A. S.; Frejafon, Emeric; Fleury, Dominique

    2013-04-01

    Risks associated with the end-of-life of nanomaterials are an issue that needs to be addressed so that the public perception and opinion, with regard to these emerging technological products, can effectively be supported by experimental evidences. In order to find new ecological ways to treat nanoproducts at their end-of-life, a new home-made demonstrator system was setup at INERIS, specifically designed to perform burning tests, coupled to a differential thermal analyzer to monitor the combustion kinetics. To assess nanoobject release during combustion, a high-performance nanocomposite polymer commonly used in the automotive industry, namely the polymeric compound acrylonitrile butadiene styrene matrix mixed with 3 wt% of multiwalled carbon nanotubes (MWCNTs) was tested. To assess the potential release of carbon nanotubes (CNTs) during the combustion with this tool, the particle size distribution in the fumes was measured using an electrical low pressure impactor, and CNTs were collected using an aspiration-based transmission electron microscopy grid sampler. One of primary objective of these preliminary tests described in this study consisted in validating whether CNT fibers can be released in the gas phase during the combustion of a polymeric matrix filled with CNTs. It was found indeed that MWCNT of about 12-nm diameter and 600-nm length can be released in the ambient environment during combustion of 3 % MWCNT ABS. Such information is critical to assess whether a nanoproduct can be deemed to be considered as "nanosafe by design" in its risk assessment.

  11. Societal risk approach to safeguards design and evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murphey, W.M.; Sherr, T.S.; Bennett, C.A.

    1975-01-01

    A comprehensive rationale for safeguards design and evaluation, and a framework for continuing systematic assessment of the system's effectiveness and efficient allocation of available safeguards resources for balanced protection, were developed. The societal risk approach employed considers the likelihood of successful destructive acts involving nuclear materials or facilities and the magnitude of the effects on society. The safeguards problem is described in terms of events affecting societal risk and adversary actions. Structure of the safeguards system and the evaluation of its adequacy are discussed. Adversary characteristics are also discussed

  12. Occupational health and safety: Designing and building with MACBETH a value risk-matrix for evaluating health and safety risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopes, D. F.; Oliveira, M. D.; Costa, C. A. Bana e.

    2015-05-01

    Risk matrices (RMs) are commonly used to evaluate health and safety risks. Nonetheless, they violate some theoretical principles that compromise their feasibility and use. This study describes how multiple criteria decision analysis methods have been used to improve the design and the deployment of RMs to evaluate health and safety risks at the Occupational Health and Safety Unit (OHSU) of the Regional Health Administration of Lisbon and Tagus Valley. ‘Value risk-matrices’ (VRMs) are built with the MACBETH approach in four modelling steps: a) structuring risk impacts, involving the construction of descriptors of impact that link risk events with health impacts and are informed by scientific evidence; b) generating a value measurement scale of risk impacts, by applying the MACBETH-Choquet procedure; c) building a system for eliciting subjective probabilities that makes use of a numerical probability scale that was constructed with MACBETH qualitative judgments on likelihood; d) and defining a classification colouring scheme for the VRM. A VRM built with OHSU members was implemented in a decision support system which will be used by OHSU members to evaluate health and safety risks and to identify risk mitigation actions.

  13. Priority issues, study designs and geographical distribution in nutrition journals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ortiz-Moncada, R; González-Zapata, L; Ruiz-Cantero, M T; Clemente-Gómez, V

    2011-01-01

    The increased number of articles published in nutrition is a reflection of the relevance to scientific community. The characteristics and quality of nutritional studies determine whether readers can obtain valid conclusions from them, as well as their usefulness for evidence-based strategic policies. To determine the characteristics of papers published in nutrition journals. Descriptive study design. We reviewed 330 original papers published between January-June 2007. From: American Journal of Clinical Nutrition (AJCN), Journal of Nutrition, European Journal Nutrition, European Journal of Clinical Nutrition and Public Health Nutrition. We classified them according to the subjects studied; risk factors, study design and country of origin. Almost half the papers studied healthy people (53.3%). The most frequent illness was obesity (13.9%). Food consumption is the most frequent risk factor (63.3%). Social factors appear exclusively only in 3.6% of the papers. Clinical trials were the most common analytical design (31.8%), mainly in the AJCN (45.6%). Cross-sectional studies were the most frequent type of observational design (37.9%). Ten countries produced over half of the papers (51.3%). The US publishes the highest number of papers (20.6%), whilst developing countries make only scarce contributions to scientific literature on nutrition. Most of the papers had inferential power. They generally studied both healthy and sick subjects, coinciding with the aims of international scientific policies. However, the topics covered reflect a clear bias, prioritizing problems pertaining to developed countries. Social determinants of health should also be considered, along with behavioral and biological risk factors.

  14. Design and validation of a questionnaire for measuring perceived risk of skin cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morales-Sánchez, M A; Peralta-Pedrero, M L; Domínguez-Gómez, M A

    2014-04-01

    A perceived risk of cancer encourages preventive behavior while the lack of such a perception is a barrier to risk reduction. There are no instruments in Spanish to measure this perceived risk and thus quantify response to interventions for preventing this disease at a population level. The aim of this study was to design and validate a self-administered questionnaire for measuring the perceived risk of skin cancer. A self-administered questionnaire with a visual Likert-type scale was designed based on the results of the analysis of the content of a survey performed in 100 patients in the Dr. Ladislao de la Pascua Skin Clinic, Distrito Federal México, Mexico. Subsequently, the questionnaire was administered to a sample of 359 adult patients who attended the clinic for the first time. As no gold standard exists for measuring the perceived risk of skin cancer, the construct was validated through factor analysis. The final questionnaire had 18 items. The internal consistency measured with Cronbach α was 0.824 overall. In the factor analysis, 4 factors (denoted as affective, behavioral, severity, and susceptibility) and an indicator of risk accounted for 65.133% of the variance. The psychometric properties of the scale were appropriate for measuring the perception of risk in adult patients (aged 18 years or more) who attended the dermatology clinic. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier España, S.L. and AEDV. All rights reserved.

  15. Needs assessment and design of the intervention for high risk sex offenders social reintegration

    OpenAIRE

    García Díez, César; Soler Iglesias, Carles

    2014-01-01

    Executive report of the adaptation study "Needs assessment and design of the intervention for high risk sex offenders social reintegration: Adaptation of the Circles of Support and Accountability to the Penal Enforcement System of Catalonia".

  16. Identifying environmental risk to male reproductive function by occupational sperm studies: logistics and design options.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonde, J P; Giwercman, A; Ernst, E

    1996-01-01

    Malfunction of the male reproductive system might be a sensitive marker of environmental hazards, the effects of which may extend beyond reproductive function. The testis is more vulnerable to heat and ionising radiation than any other organ of the body and several xenobiotics are known to disrupt spermatogenesis after low level exposure. Studies of environmental impact on human health are often most informative and accurate when carried out in the workplace where exposures can be high and easy to document. Semen analysis provides readily obtainable information on testicular function. The main advantages in comparison with functional measures such as fertility rates and time taken to conceive are the possibilities to examine men independently of marriage and pregnancy, to find changes of fecundity with different exposures within the same person and to detect adverse effects when no alteration of fertility is yet taking place. In the implementation of an occupational sperm study considerable attention must be paid to logistic issues. A mobile laboratory unit for initial semen preparation and processing may in some situations increase worker compliance and the quality of sperm cell motility. The cross sectional design which has been used in almost all male reproductive studies so far has several severe limitations including selection bias because of differential participation, difficulties in defining a suitable reference group, and lack of information about the time dimension of the cause-effect relation. The longitudinal design deals adequately with most of these constraints. Semen samples are collected before, during, and possibly after exposure to the risk factor of interest and causal inferences are based upon change of semen variables within a man over time rather than upon differences between men. The logistics of the longitudinal study may benefit from pre-employment health examinations to enrol newly hired workers and require fewer participants to obtain

  17. Implementation of Risk Management in Malaysian Construction Industry: Case Studies

    OpenAIRE

    Abdul-Rahman, Hamzah; Wang, Chen; Sheik Mohamad, Farhanim

    2015-01-01

    Construction industries are exposed to wide array of risks, such as financial, design, and contractual ones, which might have a direct impact on their performance toward achieving the desired objectives. Risk Management is a proactive decision-making process used to minimize and manage the risks in the most efficient and appropriate manner. However, most construction firms in Malaysia do not apply formal risk management in their projects. Thus, this study aims to identify the actual process o...

  18. Drug and alcohol crash risk : a case-control study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-12-01

    This study used a case-control design to estimate the risk of crashes involving drivers using drugs, alcohol or both. Data was collected in Virginia Beach, Virginia, for 20 months. The study obtained biological measures on more than 3,000 crash...

  19. Conceptual design study of fusion experimental reactor (FY86 FER)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seki, Yasushi; Iida, Hiromasa; Honda, Tsutomu.

    1987-08-01

    This report describes the study on safety for FER(Fusion Experimental Reactor) which has been designed as a next step machine to the JT-60. Though the final purpose of this study is to have an image of design base accident, maximum credible accident and to assess their risk or probability, etc., as FER plant system, the emphasis of this years study is placed on fuel-gas circulation system where the tritium inventory is maximum. This report consists of two chapters. The first chapter of this report summaries the FER system and describes FMEA(Failure Mode and Effect Analysis) and related accident progression sequence for FER plant system as a whole. The second chapter of this report is focused on fuel-gas circulation system including the purification, isotope separation system and storage system. Here, probability of risk is assessed by the probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) procedure based on FMEA, ETA and FTA. (author)

  20. Smoky River coal flood risk mapping study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2004-06-01

    The Canada-Alberta Flood Damage Reduction Program (FDRP) is designed to reduce flood damage by identifying areas susceptible to flooding and by encouraging application of suitable land use planning, zoning, and flood preparedness and proofing. The purpose of this study is to define flood risk and floodway limits along the Smoky River near the former Smoky River Coal (SRC) plant. Alberta Energy has been responsible for the site since the mine and plant closed in 2000. The study describes flooding history, available data, features of the river and valley, calculation of flood levels, and floodway determination, and includes flood risk maps. The HEC-RAS program is used for the calculations. The flood risk area was calculated using the 1:100 year return period flood as the hydrological event. 7 refs., 11 figs., 7 tabs., 3 apps.

  1. Human risk relationships derived from epidemiology and laboratory studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cuddihy, R.G.; Boecker, B.B.; Hahn, F.F.; McClellan, R.O.

    1983-01-01

    Proven techniques are needed for incorporating the results of laboratory toxicology studies into human risk assessments. Two sample calculations of lung cancer risk factors for inhaled radioactive particles and diesel engine exhaust are given here to illustrate a toxicology information matrix approach. This approach combines the results of epidemiology and laboratory animal studies of the substance or agent of principal concern, along with similar information on other surrogate substances. Beyond the estimates of lung cancer risk factors derived by using this approach, an additional advantage is gained by having estimates of uncertainty that can be obtained by incorporating all available toxicology information into the analysis. This approach is recommended for both risk assessment and in designing follow-on toxicology studies to improve preliminary assessments for new potentially harmful agents entering our environment

  2. Risk assessment data bank design at the Savannah River Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Townsend, C.S.; Johnson, K.B.

    1992-01-01

    The Savannah River Site has designed and implemented a database system containing a series of compilations of incidents used primarily for risk assessment. Four databases have been designed and implemented using advanced database management system computer software. These databases exist for reprocessing, fuel fabrication, waste management, and the Savannah River Technology Center. They are combined into one system caged the Risk Assessment Methodology (RAM) Fault Tree Data Banks. This paper will discuss the logical design of the data, the menus, and the operating platform. Built-in updating features, such as batch and on-line data entry; data validation methods; automatic update features; and expert system programs, will also be discussed. User functions, such as on-line search/view/report and statistical functions, will be presented. Security features and backup and recovery methods will also be covered

  3. Design considerations for identifying breast cancer risk factors in a population-based study in Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brinton, Louise A; Awuah, Baffour; Nat Clegg-Lamptey, Joe; Wiafe-Addai, Beatrice; Ansong, Daniel; Nyarko, Kofi M; Wiafe, Seth; Yarney, Joel; Biritwum, Richard; Brotzman, Michelle; Adjei, Andrew A; Adjei, Ernest; Aitpillah, Francis; Edusei, Lawrence; Dedey, Florence; Nyante, Sarah J; Oppong, Joseph; Osei-Bonsu, Ernest; Titiloye, Nicholas; Vanderpuye, Verna; Brew Abaidoo, Emma; Arhin, Bernard; Boakye, Isaac; Frempong, Margaret; Ohene Oti, Naomi; Okyne, Victoria; Figueroa, Jonine D

    2017-06-15

    Although breast cancer is becoming more prevalent in Africa, few epidemiologic studies have been undertaken and appropriate methodologic approaches remain uncertain. We therefore conducted a population-based case-control study in Accra and Kumasi, Ghana, enrolling 2,202 women with lesions suspicious for breast cancer and 2,161 population controls. Biopsy tissue for cases prior to neoadjuvant therapy (if given), blood, saliva and fecal samples were sought for study subjects. Response rates, risk factor prevalences and odds ratios for established breast cancer risk factors were calculated. A total of 54.5% of the recruited cases were diagnosed with malignancies, 36.0% with benign conditions and 9.5% with indeterminate diagnoses. Response rates to interviews were 99.2% in cases and 91.9% in controls, with the vast majority of interviewed subjects providing saliva (97.9% in cases vs. 98.8% in controls) and blood (91.8% vs. 82.5%) samples; lower proportions (58.1% vs. 46.1%) provided fecal samples. While risk factor prevalences were unique as compared to women in other countries (e.g., less education, higher parity), cancer risk factors resembled patterns identified elsewhere (elevated risks associated with higher levels of education, familial histories of breast cancer, low parity and larger body sizes). Subjects with benign conditions were younger and exhibited higher socioeconomic profiles (e.g., higher education and lower parity) than those with malignancies, suggesting selective referral influences. While further defining breast cancer risk factors in Africa, this study showed that successful population-based interdisciplinary studies of cancer in Africa are possible but require close attention to diagnostic referral biases and standardized and documented approaches for high-quality data collection, including biospecimens. © 2017 UICC.

  4. Conceptual design study of Fusion Experimental Reactor (FY87FER)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1988-05-01

    The design study of Fusion Experimental Reactor(FER) which has been proposed to be the next step fusion device has been conducted by JAERI Reactor System Laboratory since 1982 and by FER design team since 1984. This is the final report of the FER design team program and describes the results obtained in FY1987 (partially in FY1986) activities. The contents of this report consist of the reference design which is based on the guideline in FY1986 by the Subcomitees set up in Nuclear Fusion Council of Atomic Energy Commission of Japan, the Low-Physics-Risk reactor design for achieving physics mission more reliably and the system study of FER design candidates including above two designs. (author)

  5. Designing an Internationally Accessible Web-Based Questionnaire to Discover Risk Factors for Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis: A Case-Control Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parkin Kullmann, Jane Alana; Hayes, Susan; Wang, Min-Xia

    2015-01-01

    Background Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a progressive neurodegenerative disease with a typical survival of three to five years. Epidemiological studies using paper-based questionnaires in individual countries or continents have failed to find widely accepted risk factors for the disease. The advantages of online versus paper-based questionnaires have been extensively reviewed, but few online epidemiological studies into human neurodegenerative diseases have so far been undertaken. Objective To design a Web-based questionnaire to identify environmental risk factors for ALS and enable international comparisons of these risk factors. Methods A Web-based epidemiological questionnaire for ALS has been developed based on experience gained from administering a previous continent-wide paper-based questionnaire for this disease. New and modified questions have been added from our previous paper-based questionnaire, from literature searches, and from validated ALS questionnaires supplied by other investigators. New criteria to allow the separation of familial and sporadic ALS cases have been included. The questionnaire addresses many risk factors that have already been proposed for ALS, as well as a number that have not yet been rigorously examined. To encourage participation, responses are collected anonymously and no personally identifiable information is requested. The survey is being translated into a number of languages which will allow many people around the world to read and answer it in their own language. Results After the questionnaire had been online for 4 months, it had 379 respondents compared to only 46 respondents for the same initial period using a paper-based questionnaire. The average age of the first 379 web questionnaire respondents was 54 years compared to the average age of 60 years for the first 379 paper questionnaire respondents. The questionnaire is soon to be promoted in a number of countries through ALS associations and disease

  6. Review of Qualitative Approaches for the Construction Industry: Designing a Risk Management Toolbox

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spee, Ton; Gillen, Matt; Lentz, Thomas J.; Garrod, Andrew; Evans, Paul; Swuste, Paul

    2011-01-01

    Objectives This paper presents the framework and protocol design for a construction industry risk management toolbox. The construction industry needs a comprehensive, systematic approach to assess and control occupational risks. These risks span several professional health and safety disciplines, emphasized by multiple international occupational research agenda projects including: falls, electrocution, noise, silica, welding fumes, and musculoskeletal disorders. Yet, the International Social Security Association says, "whereas progress has been made in safety and health, the construction industry is still a high risk sector." Methods Small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) employ about 80% of the world's construction workers. In recent years a strategy for qualitative occupational risk management, known as Control Banding (CB) has gained international attention as a simplified approach for reducing work-related risks. CB groups hazards into stratified risk 'bands', identifying commensurate controls to reduce the level of risk and promote worker health and safety. We review these qualitative solutions-based approaches and identify strengths and weaknesses toward designing a simplified CB 'toolbox' approach for use by SMEs in construction trades. Results This toolbox design proposal includes international input on multidisciplinary approaches for performing a qualitative risk assessment determining a risk 'band' for a given project. Risk bands are used to identify the appropriate level of training to oversee construction work, leading to commensurate and appropriate control methods to perform the work safely. Conclusion The Construction Toolbox presents a review-generated format to harness multiple solutions-based national programs and publications for controlling construction-related risks with simplified approaches across the occupational safety, health and hygiene professions. PMID:22953194

  7. Review of qualitative approaches for the construction industry: designing a risk management toolbox.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zalk, David M; Spee, Ton; Gillen, Matt; Lentz, Thomas J; Garrod, Andrew; Evans, Paul; Swuste, Paul

    2011-06-01

    This paper presents the framework and protocol design for a construction industry risk management toolbox. The construction industry needs a comprehensive, systematic approach to assess and control occupational risks. These risks span several professional health and safety disciplines, emphasized by multiple international occupational research agenda projects including: falls, electrocution, noise, silica, welding fumes, and musculoskeletal disorders. Yet, the International Social Security Association says, "whereas progress has been made in safety and health, the construction industry is still a high risk sector." Small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) employ about 80% of the world's construction workers. In recent years a strategy for qualitative occupational risk management, known as Control Banding (CB) has gained international attention as a simplified approach for reducing work-related risks. CB groups hazards into stratified risk 'bands', identifying commensurate controls to reduce the level of risk and promote worker health and safety. We review these qualitative solutions-based approaches and identify strengths and weaknesses toward designing a simplified CB 'toolbox' approach for use by SMEs in construction trades. This toolbox design proposal includes international input on multidisciplinary approaches for performing a qualitative risk assessment determining a risk 'band' for a given project. Risk bands are used to identify the appropriate level of training to oversee construction work, leading to commensurate and appropriate control methods to perform the work safely. The Construction Toolbox presents a review-generated format to harness multiple solutions-based national programs and publications for controlling construction-related risks with simplified approaches across the occupational safety, health and hygiene professions.

  8. Methodology of life cycle cost with risk expenditure for offshore process at conceptual design stage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nam, Kiil; Chang, Daejun; Chang, Kwangpil; Rhee, Taejin; Lee, In-Beum

    2011-01-01

    This study proposed a new LCC (life cycle cost) methodology with the risk expenditure taken into account for comparative evaluation of offshore process options at their conceptual design stage. The risk expenditure consisted of the failure risk expenditure and the accident risk expenditure. The former accounted for the production loss and the maintenance expense due to equipment failures while the latter reflected the asset damage and the fatality worth caused by disastrous accidents such as fire and explosion. It was demonstrated that the new LCC methodology was capable of playing the role of a process selection basis in choosing the best of the liquefaction process options including the power generation systems for a floating LNG (Liquefied natural gas) production facility. Without the risk expenditure, a simple economic comparison apparently favored the mixed refrigerant cycle which had the better efficiency. The new methodology with the risk expenditure, however, indicated that the nitrogen expansion cycle driven by steam turbines should be the optimum choice, mainly due to its better availability and safety. -- Highlights: → The study presented the methodology of the LCC with the risk expenditure for the conceptual design of offshore processes. → The proposed methodology demonstrated the applicability of the liquefaction unit with the power generation system of LNG FPSO. → Without the risk expenditure, a simple economic comparison apparently favored the mixed refrigerant cycle which had the better efficiency. → The new methodology indicated that the nitrogen expansion cycle driven by steam turbines is the optimum choice due to its better availability and safety.

  9. Schematic representation of case study research designs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenberg, John P; Yates, Patsy M

    2007-11-01

    The paper is a report of a study to demonstrate how the use of schematics can provide procedural clarity and promote rigour in the conduct of case study research. Case study research is a methodologically flexible approach to research design that focuses on a particular case - whether an individual, a collective or a phenomenon of interest. It is known as the 'study of the particular' for its thorough investigation of particular, real-life situations and is gaining increased attention in nursing and social research. However, the methodological flexibility it offers can leave the novice researcher uncertain of suitable procedural steps required to ensure methodological rigour. This article provides a real example of a case study research design that utilizes schematic representation drawn from a doctoral study of the integration of health promotion principles and practices into a palliative care organization. The issues discussed are: (1) the definition and application of case study research design; (2) the application of schematics in research; (3) the procedural steps and their contribution to the maintenance of rigour; and (4) the benefits and risks of schematics in case study research. The inclusion of visual representations of design with accompanying explanatory text is recommended in reporting case study research methods.

  10. Using proliferation risk as a design metric in the development of nuclear systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beard, C.; Lebouf, R.

    2001-01-01

    The necessity has arisen for newly proposed nuclear systems to be evaluated with regard to their potential aid to any proliferation. Thus, a mechanism is needed to introduce nonproliferation as a measure in the design phase of a new nuclear system. To accomplish this, a methodology for quantifying and measuring the proliferation risk of proposed system options is required. Such quantification has its difficulties due to inherent uncertainty, e.g. what is the probability that a quantity of material will be stolen in a given situation? Also, the lack of data on such occurrences makes the task of quantification nearly insurmountable. A systematic approach is necessary to estimate the proliferation risk. Currently, an advanced nuclear power system, the Accelerator Transmutation of Waste (ATW) program has been initiated to develop a system that will concurrently generate electricity while destroying long-lived radioactive isotopes. Therefore, because of the issues noted above, an effort to introduce proliferation risk into the design phase has been started. The purpose of this paper is to review previous work in quantification of proliferation risk in an effort to develop the proper basis for the current work. It should be noted that while proliferation on a national level has been studied extensively, efforts to quantify proliferation risk of individual nuclear systems or processes have been limited. Consequently, the available literature base is relatively sparse. (author)

  11. Using proliferation risk as a design metric in the development of nuclear systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beard, C.; Lebouf, R. [Texas Univ., Austin, TX (United States). Nuclear Engineering Teaching Lab.

    2001-07-01

    The necessity has arisen for newly proposed nuclear systems to be evaluated with regard to their potential aid to any proliferation. Thus, a mechanism is needed to introduce nonproliferation as a measure in the design phase of a new nuclear system. To accomplish this, a methodology for quantifying and measuring the proliferation risk of proposed system options is required. Such quantification has its difficulties due to inherent uncertainty, e.g. what is the probability that a quantity of material will be stolen in a given situation? Also, the lack of data on such occurrences makes the task of quantification nearly insurmountable. A systematic approach is necessary to estimate the proliferation risk. Currently, an advanced nuclear power system, the Accelerator Transmutation of Waste (ATW) program has been initiated to develop a system that will concurrently generate electricity while destroying long-lived radioactive isotopes. Therefore, because of the issues noted above, an effort to introduce proliferation risk into the design phase has been started. The purpose of this paper is to review previous work in quantification of proliferation risk in an effort to develop the proper basis for the current work. It should be noted that while proliferation on a national level has been studied extensively, efforts to quantify proliferation risk of individual nuclear systems or processes have been limited. Consequently, the available literature base is relatively sparse. (author)

  12. Design Evolution Study - Aging Options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McDaniel, P.

    2002-01-01

    subsurface area (high cost); surface aging in the complete waste package (risk to the waste package and impact on the Waste Handling Facility); and aging in the stainless steel liner (impact on the waste package design and new high risk operations added to the waste packaging process). The selection of a design basis for aging will be made in conjunction with the other design re-evaluation studies

  13. On-ground casualty risk reduction by structural design for demise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lemmens, Stijn; Funke, Quirin; Krag, Holger

    2015-06-01

    In recent years, awareness concerning the on-ground risk posed by un-controlled re-entering space systems has increased. On average over the past decade, an object with mass above 800 kg re-enters every week from which only a few, e.g. ESA's GOCE in 2013 and NASA's UARS in 2011, appeared prominent in international media. Space agencies and nations have discussed requirements to limit the on-ground risk for future missions. To meet the requirements, the amount of debris falling back on Earth has to be limited in number, mass and size. Design for demise (D4D) refers to all measures taken in the design of a space object to increase the potential for demise of the object and its components during re-entry. SCARAB (Spacecraft Atmospheric Re-entry and Break-Up) is ESA's high-fidelity tool which analyses the thermal and structural effects of atmospheric re-entry on spacecraft with a finite-element approach. For this study, a model of a representative satellite is developed in SCARAB to serve as test-bed for D4D analyses on a structural level. The model is used as starting point for different D4D approaches based on increasing the exposure of the satellite components to the aero-thermal environment, as a way to speed up the demise. Statistical bootstrapping is applied to the resulting on-ground fragment lists in order to compare the different re-entry scenarios and to determine the uncertainties of the results. Moreover, the bootstrap results can be used to analyse the casualty risk estimator from a theoretical point of view. The risk reductions for the analysed D4D techniques are presented with respect to the reference scenario for the modelled representative satellite.

  14. Design and Rationale of the Intima-Medial Thickness Sub-Study of the PreventIon of CArdiovascular Events in iSchemic Stroke Patients with High Risk of Cerebral hemOrrhage (PICASSO-IMT) Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seo, Woo-Keun; Kim, Yong Jae; Lee, Juneyoung; Kwon, Sun U

    2017-09-01

    Atherosclerosis is one of the main mechanisms of stroke and cardiovascular diseases and is associated with increased risk of recurrent stroke and cardiovascular events. Intima-medial thickness (IMT) is a well-known surrogate marker of atherosclerosis and has been used to predict stroke and cardiovascular events. However, the clinical significance of IMT and IMT change in stroke has not been investigated in well-designed studies. The PreventIon of CArdiovascular events in iSchemic Stroke patients with high risk of cerebral hemOrrhage-Intima-Media Thickness (PICASSO-IMT) sub-study is designed to investigate the effects of cilostazol, probucol, or both on IMT in patients with stroke. PICASSO-IMT is a prospective sub-study of the PICASSO study designed to measure IMT and plaque score at 1, 13, 25, 37, and 49 months after randomization. The primary outcome is the change in mean carotid IMT, which is defined as the mean of the far-wall IMTs of the right and left common carotid arteries, between baseline and 13 months after randomization. PICASSO-IMT will provide the largest IMT data set in a stroke population and will provide valuable information about the clinical significance of IMT in patients with ischemic stroke. Copyright © 2017 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Design of process displays based on risk analysis techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lundtang Paulsen, J.

    2004-05-01

    This thesis deals with the problems of designing display systems for process plants. We state the reasons why it is important to discuss information systems for operators in a control room, especially in view of the enormous amount of information available in computer-based supervision systems. The state of the art is discussed: How are supervision systems designed today and why? Which strategies are used? What kind of research is going on? Four different plants and their display systems, designed by the author, are described and discussed. Next we outline different methods for eliciting knowledge of a plant, particularly the risks, which is necessary information for the display designer. A chapter presents an overview of the various types of operation references: constitutive equations, set points, design parameters, component characteristics etc., and their validity in different situations. On the basis of her experience with the design of display systems; with risk analysis methods and from 8 years, as an engineer-on-shift at a research reactor, the author developed a method to elicit necessary information to the operator. The method, a combination of a Goal-Tree and a Fault-Tree, is described in some detail. Finally we address the problem of where to put the dot and the lines: when all information is on the table, how should it be presented most adequately. Included, as an appendix is a paper concerning the analysis of maintenance reports and visualization of their information. The purpose was to develop a software tool for maintenance supervision of components in a nuclear power plant. (au)

  16. Design definition study of a NASA/Navy lift/cruise fan technology V/STOL airplane: Risk assessment addendum to the final report

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zabinsky, J. M.; Burnham, R. W.; Flora, C. C.; Gotlieb, P.; Grande, D. L.; Gunnarson, D. W.; Howard, W. M.; Hunt, D.; Jakubowski, G. W.; Johnson, P. E.

    1975-01-01

    An assessment of risk, in terms of delivery delays, cost overrun, and performance achievement, associated with the V/STOL technology airplane is presented. The risk is discussed in terms of weight, structure, aerodynamics, propulsion, mechanical drive, and flight controls. The analysis ensures that risks associated with the design and development of the airplane will be eliminated in the course of the program and a useful technology airplane that meets the predicted cost, schedule, and performance can be produced.

  17. The comparison of various approach to evaluation erosion risks and design control erosion measures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kapicka, Jiri

    2015-04-01

    In the present is in the Czech Republic one methodology how to compute and compare erosion risks. This methodology contain also method to design erosion control measures. The base of this methodology is Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) and their result long-term average annual rate of erosion (G). This methodology is used for landscape planners. Data and statistics from database of erosion events in the Czech Republic shows that many troubles and damages are from local episodes of erosion events. An extent of these events and theirs impact are conditional to local precipitation events, current plant phase and soil conditions. These erosion events can do troubles and damages on agriculture land, municipally property and hydro components and even in a location is from point of view long-term average annual rate of erosion in good conditions. Other way how to compute and compare erosion risks is episodes approach. In this paper is presented the compare of various approach to compute erosion risks. The comparison was computed to locality from database of erosion events on agricultural land in the Czech Republic where have been records two erosion events. The study area is a simple agriculture land without any barriers that can have high influence to water flow and soil sediment transport. The computation of erosion risks (for all methodology) was based on laboratory analysis of soil samples which was sampled on study area. Results of the methodology USLE, MUSLE and results from mathematical model Erosion 3D have been compared. Variances of the results in space distribution of the places with highest soil erosion where compared and discussed. Other part presents variances of design control erosion measures where their design was done on based different methodology. The results shows variance of computed erosion risks which was done by different methodology. These variances can start discussion about different approach how compute and evaluate erosion risks in areas

  18. Selection of low-risk design guidelines for energetic events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferguson, D.; Marchaterre, J.; Graham, J.

    1982-01-01

    This paper recommends the establishment of specific design guidelines for protection against potential, but low-probability, energetic events. These guidelines recognize the plant protective features incorporated to prevent such events, as well as the inherent capability of the plant to accommodate a certain level of energy release. Further, their application is recommended within the context of necessary standardized and agreed-upon acceptance criteria which are less restrictive than ASME code requirements. The paper provides the background upon which the selection of the design is made, including the characterization of energetic events dependent on various core-design parameters, and including the necessity of a low-risk design balanced between prevention of accidents and the mitigation of consequences

  19. The role of risk management in the design of diagnostics for fusion reactors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ingesson, L. C. [Fusion for Energy, Josep Pla 2, Torres Diagonal Litoral B3, 08019 Barcelona (Spain); Collaboration: F4E Diagnostic Project Team

    2014-08-21

    A project-oriented approach is beneficial for the selection and design of viable diagnostics for fusion reactors because of the associated complex physical and organizational environment. The project-oriented approach includes rigorous risk management. The nature and impact of risks related to technical, organizational and commercial aspects in relation to the development of ITER diagnostics under EU responsibility are analyzed. The majority of risks are related to organizational aspects and technical feasibility issues. The experience with ITER is extrapolated to DEMO and beyond. It should not be taken for granted that technical solutions will be found, while a risk analysis of various diagnostic techniques with quantitative assessments undertaken early in the design of DEMO would be beneficial.

  20. Predicting asthma in preschool children with asthma symptoms: study rationale and design

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hafkamp-de Groen Esther

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In well-child care it is difficult to determine whether preschool children with asthma symptoms actually have or will develop asthma at school age. The PIAMA (Prevention and Incidence of Asthma and Mite Allergy Risk Score has been proposed as an instrument that predicts asthma at school age, using eight easy obtainable parameters, assessed at the time of first asthma symptoms at preschool age. The aim of this study is to present the rationale and design of a study 1 to externally validate and update the PIAMA Risk Score, 2 to develop an Asthma Risk Appraisal Tool to predict asthma at school age in (specific subgroups of preschool children with asthma symptoms and 3 to test implementation of the Asthma Risk Appraisal Tool in well-child care. Methods and design The study will be performed within the framework of Generation R, a prospective multi-ethnic cohort study. In total, consent for postnatal follow-up was obtained from 7893 children, born between 2002 and 2006. At preschool age the PIAMA Risk Score will be assessed and used to predict asthma at school age. Discrimination (C-index and calibration will be assessed for the external validation. We will study whether the predictive ability of the PIAMA Risk Score can be improved by removing or adding predictors (e.g. preterm birth. The (updated PIAMA Risk Score will be converted to the Asthma Risk Appraisal Tool- to predict asthma at school age in preschool children with asthma symptoms. Additionally, we will conduct a pilot study to test implementation of the Asthma Risk Appraisal Tool in well-child care. Discussion Application of the Asthma Risk Appraisal Tool in well-child care will help to distinguish preschool children at high- and low-risk of developing asthma at school age when asthma symptoms appear. This study will increase knowledge about the validity of the PIAMA risk score and might improve risk assessment of developing asthma at school age in (specific subgroups

  1. Exergy based methods for economic and risk design optimization of energy systems: Application to a gas turbine

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cassetti, G.; Rocco, M.V.; Colombo, E.

    2014-01-01

    Exergy based analyses are considered by the scientific community appropriate tools for the design and the performance evaluation and improvements of energy systems. Moreover, they are today recognized as proper instruments to assess economic, environmental and social externalities of energy systems. This paper presents the results of a study in which different exergy analysis methods are adopted to determine the optimal design configuration of a gas turbine operating in simple Joule Brayton cycle. Standard exergy and Thermoeconomic analyses are performed to identify the highest thermodynamic efficiency and minimum economic cost configurations of the system, while for the environmental analysis Authors propose an innovative method in which the exergy analysis is combined with a Risk Analysis. With this method the total risk associated to the system is used as objective function in the same way as monetary cost is for standard Thermoeconomic analysis. These three methods aims therefore to determine the optimal design configurations of the system with respect to their specific objective functions, respectively: exergy cost (J/J), monetary (exergoeconomic) cost (€/J) and risk (injured/J) of the product. Results lead to three different optimal design parameters for the system, according to the objective of each analysis procedure. - Highlights: • An original implementation of Thermoeconomic framework is proposed. • Standard Exergy and Thermoeconomic analysis are performed on a case study. • A new model using exergy as allocation criteria for Risk Analysis is performed. • Different optimal configurations are obtained and compared

  2. Liquid pathways generic studies; results, interpretation, and design implications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walker, D.H.; Nutant, J.A.

    1980-01-01

    Offshore Power Systems and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission have evaluated dose consequences resulting from a release of radioactivity to liquid pathways following a postulated core-melt accident. The objective of these studies was to compare the risks from postulated core-melt accidents for the Floating Nuclear Plant with those for a typical land-based nuclear plant. Offshore Power Systems concluded that the differences in liquid pathway risks between plant types are not significant when compared with the air pathways risks. Air pathways risk is similar to or significantly larger than liquid pathways risk depending on the accident scenario. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission judged the liquid pathways risks from the Floating Nuclear Plant to be significantly greater than the liquid pathway risks for the typical land-based plant. Although OPS disagrees with the NRC judgment, design changes dictated by the NRC are being implemented by OPS

  3. Risk factors for cataract: A case control study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ughade Suresh

    1998-01-01

    Full Text Available The present study was designed as a hospital-based, group-matched, case-control investigation into the risk factors associated with age-related cataract in central India. The study included 262 cases of age-related cataract and an equal number of controls. A total of 21 risk factors were evaluated: namely, low socioeconomic status (SES, illiteracy, marital status, history of diarrhoea, history of diabetes, glaucoma, use of cholinesterase inhibitors, steroids, spironolactone, nifedipine, analgesics, myopia early in life, renal failure, heavy smoking, heavy alcohol consumption, hypertension, low body mass index (BMI, use of cheaper cooking fuel, working in direct sunlight, family history of cataract, and occupational exposure. In univariate analysis, except marital status, low BMI, renal failure, use of steroids, spironolactone, analgesics, and occupational exposure, all 14 other risk factors were found significantly associated with age-related cataract. Unconditional multiple logistic regression analysis confirmed the significance of low SES, illiteracy, history of diarrhoea, diabetes, glaucoma, myopia, smoking, hypertension and cheap cooking fuel. The etiological role of these risk factors in the outcome of cataract is confirmed by the estimates of attributable risk proportion. The estimates of population attributable risk proportion for these factors highlight the impact of elimination of these risk factors on the reduction of cataract in this population.

  4. Societal risk approach to safeguards design and evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bennett, C.A.; Murphey, W.M.; Sherr, T.S.

    1975-06-01

    There has been much discussion and public debate concerning the effectiveness of the national system of safeguards against malevolent acts involving nuclear materials. Useful dialogue on this subject has been hampered by the lack of well-defined objectives, system parameters and boundary conditions as a framework for communication. This study provides such a framework. Expressing the safeguards objective in terms of societal risk represents a change in focus, rather than intent, from the earlier view of safeguards as a system for protecting nuclear material against theft or diversion. The study defines both the safeguards problem and the safeguards system in terms that can be related to the general safeguards objective. It is axiomatic that the first step to an effective solution is a careful definition of the problem. The significant and immediate value of this study lies in the rigorous definition and systematic organization of recognized elements into a coherent and comprehensive pattern. Although the title specifically addresses design and evaluation, the framework provided by the study will be a useful management tool for safeguards implementation and administration as well. (U.S.)

  5. The Design and Risk Management of Structured Finance Vehicles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanjiv Das

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Special investment vehicles (SIVs, extremely popular financial structures for the creation of highly-rated tranched securities, experienced spectacular demise in the 2007-2008 financial crisis. These financial vehicles epitomize the shadow banking sector, characterized by high leverage, undiversified asset pools, and long-dated assets supported by short-term debt, thus bearing material rollover risk on their liabilities which led to defeasance. This paper models these vehicles, and shows that imposing leverage risk control triggers can be optimal for all capital providers, though they may not always be appropriate. The efficacy of these risk controls varies depending on anticipated asset volatility and fire-sale discounts on defeasance. Despite risk management controls, we show that a high failure rate is inherent in the design of these vehicles, and may be mitigated to some extent by including contingent capital provisions in the ex-ante covenants. Post the recent subprime financial crisis, we inform the creation of safer SIVs in structured finance, and propose avenues of mitigating risks faced by senior debt through deleveraging policies in the form of leverage risk controls and contingent capital.

  6. Using dual response surfaces to reduce variability in launch vehicle design: A case study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yeniay, Ozgur; Unal, Resit; Lepsch, Roger A.

    2006-01-01

    Space transportation system conceptual design is a multidisciplinary process containing considerable element of risk. Uncertainties from one engineering discipline may propagate to another through linking parameters and the final system output may have an accumulation of risk. This may lead to significant deviations from expected performance. An estimate of variability or design risk therefore becomes essential for a robust design. This study utilizes the dual response surface approach to quantify variability in critical performance characteristics during conceptual design phase of a launch vehicle. Using design of experiments methods and disciplinary design analysis codes, dual response surfaces are constructed for the mean and standard deviation to quantify variability in vehicle weight and sizing analysis. Next, an optimum solution is sought to minimize variability subject to a constraint on mean weight. In this application, the dual response surface approach lead to quantifying and minimizing variability without much increase in design effort

  7. Commentary: Risk Management and Reliability Design for Buildings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berry, Dennis L.; Cranwell, Robert M.; Hunter, Regina L.

    1999-05-28

    Where there is a significant actuarial basis for decision making (e.g., the occurrence of fires in single-family dwellings), there is little incentive for formal risk management. Formal risk assessments are most useful in those cases where the value of the structure is high, many people may be affected, the societal perception of risk is high, consequences of a mishap would be severe, and the actuarial uncertainty is large. For these cases, there is little opportunity to obtain the necessary experiential data to make informed decisions, and the consequences in terms of money, lives, and societal confidence are severe enough to warrant a formal risk assessment. Other important factors include the symbolic value of the structure and vulnerability to single point failures. It is unlikely that formal risk management and assessment practices will or should replace the proven institutions of building codes and engineering practices. Nevertheless, formal risk assessment can provide valuable insights into the hazards threatening high-value and high-risk (perceived or actual) buildings and structures, which can in turn be translated into improved public health, safety, and security. The key is to choose and apply the right assessment tool to match the structure in question. Design-for-reliability concepts can be applied to buildings, bridges, transportation sys- tems, dams, and other structures. The use of these concepts could have the dual benefits of lowering life-cycle costs by reducing the necessity for maintenance and repair and of enhancing the saiiety and security of the structure's users.

  8. Technical note: Risk detection in light steel frame buildings in design, construction and implementation phases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Yeganeh

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Light Steel Frame System that is briefly called "LSF" is a building system which is used for implying of short-rise and mid-rise buildings (up to five floors. It is a desirable building system for civil engineers (in terms of gravity and lateral load in developing countries. This system gets significant benefits, although in Iran it is not much used due to the reasons such as: opposite with people’s culture, higher price in, lack of specialists, executive problems and etc. So in this article, we are tried to study LSF structures from the design and implementation stage to the operation and identify its risks exactly and finally offer a solution for each risk. Risk detections process is executed with interview technique in the Mashhad city and countryside. Totally, 56 projects are examined in this research. The study projects have been classified here. This classification includes residential buildings, villas, added-storey, schools, administrative, commercial, fastfood, industrial structures and LSF non-load-bearing walls. All the mentioned projects have been implemented in holy city of Mashhad or will be implemented in the future. Designers, administrators and employers are interviewed in person in all the above projects. Because of novelty of this system and its unknown risks, this research can be useful for managers decision making and for executing engineers in the field of choosing the best system for project and adoption of appropriate method for preventing these risks.

  9. The concept of risk in the design basis threat

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reynolds, J.M.

    2001-01-01

    Full text: Mathematically defined, risk is a product of one or more probability factors and one or more consequences. Actuarial analysis of risk requires the creation of a numeric algorithm that reflects the interaction of different probability factors, where probability data usually draws on direct measurements of incidence. For physical protection purposes, the algorithms take the general form: Risk = Probability of successful attack x Consequence where the overall probability of a successful attack will be determined by the product of, amongst other things, the probability of there being sufficient intent, the probability of there being available hostile resources, the probability of deterrence, and the probability that a hostile act will be detected and prevented. Deliberate, malevolent acts against nuclear facilities are rare. In so far as it is possible to make an actuarial type of judgement, the probability of malevolent activity against a nuclear facility is almost zero. This creates a problem for a numerical assessment of risk for nuclear facilities where the value (consequence) term could be almost infinite. As can be seen from the general equation above, a numerical algorithm of risk of malevolent activity affecting nuclear facilities could only yield a zero or infinite result. In such circumstances, intelligence-based threat assessments are sometimes thought of as a substitute for historic data in the determination of probability. However, if the paucity of historic data reflects the actual threat - which by and large it should - no amount of intelligence is likely to yield a substantially different conclusion. This mathematical approach to analysing risk appears to lead us either to no risk and no protection or to an infinite risk demanding every conceivable protective measure. The Design Basis Threat (DBT) approach offers a way out of the dilemma. Firstly, it allows us to eliminate from further consideration all zero or near zero probabilities

  10. Scientific reporting is suboptimal for aspects that characterize genetic risk prediction studies: a review of published articles based on the Genetic RIsk Prediction Studies statement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iglesias, Adriana I; Mihaescu, Raluca; Ioannidis, John P A; Khoury, Muin J; Little, Julian; van Duijn, Cornelia M; Janssens, A Cecile J W

    2014-05-01

    Our main objective was to raise awareness of the areas that need improvements in the reporting of genetic risk prediction articles for future publications, based on the Genetic RIsk Prediction Studies (GRIPS) statement. We evaluated studies that developed or validated a prediction model based on multiple DNA variants, using empirical data, and were published in 2010. A data extraction form based on the 25 items of the GRIPS statement was created and piloted. Forty-two studies met our inclusion criteria. Overall, more than half of the evaluated items (34 of 62) were reported in at least 85% of included articles. Seventy-seven percentage of the articles were identified as genetic risk prediction studies through title assessment, but only 31% used the keywords recommended by GRIPS in the title or abstract. Seventy-four percentage mentioned which allele was the risk variant. Overall, only 10% of the articles reported all essential items needed to perform external validation of the risk model. Completeness of reporting in genetic risk prediction studies is adequate for general elements of study design but is suboptimal for several aspects that characterize genetic risk prediction studies such as description of the model construction. Improvements in the transparency of reporting of these aspects would facilitate the identification, replication, and application of genetic risk prediction models. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Rationale and design of a multicenter prospective cohort study for the eVALuation and monitoring of HPV infections and relATEd cervical diseases in high-risk women (VALHIDATE study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Orlando Giovanna

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Pap screening, an effective method for cervical cancer prevention, is now supported by molecular human papillomavirus (HPV testing. Recently commercialised preventive vaccines also provide new tools for the primary prevention of cervical cancer. To determine appropriate prevention strategies, the Health General Direction, Lombardy Region, funded a project that aims to characterize and monitor HPV infections and related cervical diseases in high-risk women. Methods/design VALHIDATE is a 5-year multicentre open prospective cohort study. It will recruit 7000 consenting women aged 13–65 years to provide information about the local biomolecular epidemiology of HPV infection and cervical diseases in high-risk women recruited from nine clinical centres and one faith-based organisation. The study will estimate the overall and type-specific prevalence of HPV infection and cervical abnormalities. It also aims to compare standard Pap screening with biomolecular screening, and to assist in the design of targeted regional prevention programs directed specifically at high-risk groups. Three groups of high-risk women: 1000 HIV-infected women (aged 26–65 years, 1000 recent migrant women (aged 26–65 years and 3000 young women (aged 13–26 years and 1 control group: 2000 women (aged 26–45 years attending a spontaneous screening program, will be recruited. Sample sizes will be revised after the first year. Adult participants will undergo conventional cervical cytology, HPV DNA screening and genotyping. Paediatric participants will undergo HPV DNA testing and genotyping of urine samples. HPV DNA, cytological abnormalities and HPV types will be analysed according to demographic, epidemiological, behavioural, and clinical data collected in an electronic case report form. Overall and stratified prevalences will be estimated to analyse the associations between HPV infection and selected characteristics. Logistic regression models

  12. Study of a risk-based piping inspection guideline system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tien, Shiaw-Wen; Hwang, Wen-Tsung; Tsai, Chih-Hung

    2007-02-01

    A risk-based inspection system and a piping inspection guideline model were developed in this study. The research procedure consists of two parts--the building of a risk-based inspection model for piping and the construction of a risk-based piping inspection guideline model. Field visits at the plant were conducted to develop the risk-based inspection and strategic analysis system. A knowledge-based model had been built in accordance with international standards and local government regulations, and the rational unified process was applied for reducing the discrepancy in the development of the models. The models had been designed to analyze damage factors, damage models, and potential damage positions of piping in the petrochemical plants. The purpose of this study was to provide inspection-related personnel with the optimal planning tools for piping inspections, hence, to enable effective predictions of potential piping risks and to enhance the better degree of safety in plant operations that the petrochemical industries can be expected to achieve. A risk analysis was conducted on the piping system of a petrochemical plant. The outcome indicated that most of the risks resulted from a small number of pipelines.

  13. NASA Propulsion Concept Studies and Risk Reduction Activities for Resource Prospector Lander

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trinh, Huu P.; Williams, Hunter; Burnside, Chris

    2015-01-01

    The trade study has led to the selection of propulsion concept with the lowest cost and net lowest risk -Government-owned, flight qualified components -Meet mission requirements although the configuration is not optimized. Risk reduction activities have provided an opportunity -Implement design improvements while development with the early-test approach. -Gain knowledge on the operation and identify operation limit -Data to anchor analytical models for future flight designs; The propulsion system cold flow tests series have provided valuable data for future design. -The pressure surge from the system priming and waterhammer within component operation limits. -Enable to optimize the ullage volume to reduce the propellant tank mass; RS-34 hot fire tests have successfully demonstrated of using the engines for the RP mission -No degradation of performance due to extended storage life of the hardware. -Enable to operate the engine for RP flight mission scenarios, outside of the qualification regime. -Provide extended data for the thermal and GNC designs. Significant progress has been made on NASA propulsion concept design and risk reductions for Resource Prospector lander.

  14. Study the rate of fertility and risk factors of schizophrenia in Najaf, Iraq

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study is designed to investigate the main risk factors, which increased the incidence of schizophrenia and the rate of fertility in patients measuring sex hormones (testosterone and estrogen) and prolactin hormone. The aim of study was to evaluate the fertility rate and risk factors of schizophrenia. Blood samples were ...

  15. Designing a Supply Chain Network under the Risk of Disruptions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Armin Jabbarzadeh

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper studies a supply chain design problem with the risk of disruptions at facilities. At any point of time, the facilities are subject to various types of disruptions caused by natural disasters, man-made defections, and equipment breakdowns. We formulate the problem as a mixed-integer nonlinear program which maximizes the total profit for the whole system. The model simultaneously determines the number and location of facilities, the subset of customers to serve, the assignment of customers to facilities, and the cycle-order quantities at facilities. In order to obtain near-optimal solutions with reasonable computational requirements for large problem instances, two solution methods based on Lagrangian relaxation and genetic algorithm are developed. The effectiveness of the proposed solution approaches is shown using numerical experiments. The computational results, in addition, demonstrate that the benefits of considering disruptions in the supply chain design model can be significant.

  16. Cost effective radiation risk management in a generic nuclear plant design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maan, M.A.

    1982-11-01

    To determine whether any further dose reduction measures are justified, a method appropriate for cost effective radiation risk management has been developed. This new method is based on the radiation detriment optimization measures advocated in the revised (1977) ALARA concept. The methodology includes the determination of available alternatives, and the determination of the variable monetary ceiling on expenditures to reduce the radiological detriment (both occupational and public). The method used to determine the maximum justifiable expenditure for additional reduction of detriment takes into account the economic and social climate, administrative/legal exposure limits, and the actual magnitude of risk. All these factors may vary from country to country. The variable monetary ceiling, sensitive to an actual level of risk, provides a handy measure allowing designers to make a decision whether or not the modification of design is necessary and/or cost effective. This will ensure rationally and consistently that the utilities and their customers (public) get maximum benefit for their safety dollars

  17. Searching for non-genetic molecular and imaging PTSD risk and resilience markers: Systematic review of literature and design of the German Armed Forces PTSD biomarker study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, Ulrike; Willmund, Gerd-Dieter; Holsboer, Florian; Wotjak, Carsten T; Gallinat, Jürgen; Kowalski, Jens T; Zimmermann, Peter

    2015-01-01

    Biomarkers allowing the identification of individuals with an above average vulnerability or resilience for posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) would especially serve populations at high risk for trauma exposure like firefighters, police officers and combat soldiers. Aiming to identify the most promising putative PTSD vulnerability markers, we conducted the first systematic review on potential imaging and non-genetic molecular markers for PTSD risk and resilience. Following the PRISMA guidelines, we systematically screened the PubMed database for prospective longitudinal clinical studies and twin studies reporting on pre-trauma and post-trauma PTSD risk and resilience biomarkers. Using 25 different combinations of search terms, we retrieved 8151 articles of which we finally included and evaluated 9 imaging and 27 molecular studies. In addition, we briefly illustrate the design of the ongoing prospective German Armed Forces (Bundeswehr) PTSD biomarker study (Bw-BioPTSD) which not only aims to validate these previous findings but also to identify novel and clinically applicable molecular, psychological and imaging risk, resilience and disease markers for deployment-related psychopathology in a cohort of German soldiers who served in Afghanistan. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. The selection of low-risk design guidelines for energetic events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fergusson, Donald; Marchaterre, John; Graham, John

    1982-01-01

    This paper recommends the establishment of specific design guidelines for protection against potential, but low probability, energetic events. These guidelines recognize the plant protective features incorporated to prevents such events, as well as the inherent capability of the plant to accommodate a certain level of energy release. Further, their application is recommended within the context of necessary standardized and agreed upon acceptance criteria which are less restrictive than ASME code requirements. The paper provides the background upon which the selection of the design is made, including the characterization of energetic events dependent on various core-design parameters, and including the necessity of a low-risk design balanced between prevention of accidents and the mitigation of consequences

  19. Risk factors for suicide behaviors in the observational schizophrenia outpatient health outcomes (SOHO study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brugnoli Roberto

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background To identify risk factors for suicide using data from a large, 3-year, multinational follow-up study of schizophrenia (SOHO study. Methods Baseline characteristics of 8,871 adult patients with schizophrenia were included in a logistic regression post-hoc analysis comparing patients who attempted and/or committed suicide during the study with those who did not. Results 384 (4.3% patients attempted or committed suicide. Completed suicides were 27 (0.3%. The significant risk factors for suicide behaviors were previous suicidality, depressive symptoms, prolactin-related adverse events, male gender and history of hospitalization for schizophrenia. Conclusions In view of the observational design of the study and the post-hoc nature of the analysis, the identified risk factors should be confirmed by ad-hoc specifically designed studies.

  20. The control, at the design stage, of risks related to buildings management over time

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudio Martani

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available In the present paper an apparatus of tools and methods is presented to evaluate, at the design stage, the risks over a set of objectives through buildings lifetime. To this purpose a tool is first presented to relate technological requirements of each technical elements to the pertinent maintenance interventions. Then a process is also proposed to estimate the risks on user requirements runningMonte Carlo simulations. The risk management process proposed in the present work aims to support designers and promoters in making predictions on the outcomes of long, not standardized, multivariable dependent processes – as the building process is – in order to indicate the attitude of a designed building to meet a framework of important objectives through its lifetime.

  1. Applying risk insights in US NRC reviews of integral pressurized water reactor designs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Caruso, M.A.; Hilsmeier, T.; Kevern, T.A.

    2012-01-01

    In its Staff Requirements Memorandum (SRM) on COMGBJ-10-0004/COMGEA-10-0001, 'Use of Risk Insights to Enhance Safety Focus of Small Modular Reactor Reviews,' dated August 31, 2010 (ML102510405), the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) directed the NRC staff to more fully integrate the use of risk insights into pre-application activities and the review of small modular reactor (SMR) applications with near-term focus on integral pressurized water reactor (iPWR) designs. The Commission's objective is to align the review focus and resources with the risk-significant systems, structures, and components (SSCs) and other aspects of the design, that contribute most to safety in order to enhance the efficiency of the review process while still enabling a decision of reasonable assurance of the design's safety. The staff was directed to develop a design-specific, risk-informed review plan for each SMR to address pre-application and application review activities. The NRC staff submitted a response to the Commission which describes its approach for (1) using risk insights, consistent with current regulatory requirements, to assign SSCs to one of a limited set of graded categories, and (2) adjusting the scope and depth of current review plans--where possible--consistent with regulatory requirements and consistent with the applicable graded category. Because the staff's review constitutes an independent audit of the application, the staff may emphasize or de-emphasize particular aspects of its review guidance (i.e., Standard Review Plan), as appropriate and consistent with regulatory requirements, for the application being reviewed. The staff may propose justifications for not performing certain sections of the reviews called for by the applicable review plan. Examples of acceptable variations in the scope of a review can include reduced emphasis on SSC attributes such as reliability, availability, or functional performance when the SSC will be in the scope of a program

  2. Designs for Risk Evaluation and Management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2015-12-01

    The Designs for Risk Evaluation and Management (DREAM) tool was developed as part of the effort to quantify the risk of geologic storage of carbon dioxide (CO2) under the U.S. Department of Energy's National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP). DREAM is an optimization tool created to identify optimal monitoring schemes that minimize the time to first detection of CO2 leakage from a subsurface storage formation. DREAM acts as a post-processer on user-provided output from subsurface leakage simulations. While DREAM was developed for CO2 leakage scenarios, it is applicable to any subsurface leakage simulation of the same output format. The DREAM tool is comprised of three main components: (1) a Java wizard used to configure and execute the simulations, (2) a visualization tool to view the domain space and optimization results, and (3) a plotting tool used to analyze the results. A secondary Java application is provided to aid users in converting common American Standard Code for Information Interchange (ASCII) output data to the standard DREAM hierarchical data format (HDF5). DREAM employs a simulated annealing approach that searches the solution space by iteratively mutating potential monitoring schemes built of various configurations of monitoring locations and leak detection parameters. This approach has proven to be orders of magnitude faster than an exhaustive search of the entire solution space. The user's manual illustrates the program graphical user interface (GUI), describes the tool inputs, and includes an example application.

  3. Comparative Study of Barotrauma Risk during Fish Passage through Kaplan Turbines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Richmond, Marshall C. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States). Hydrology Group; Romero-Gomez, Pedro [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States). Hydrology Group; Serkowski, John A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States). Hydrology Group; Rakowski, Cynthia L. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States). Hydrology Group; Graf, Michael J. [Voith Hydro, York, PA (United States)

    2015-10-01

    Rapid pressure changes in hydroelectric turbine flows can cause barotrauma that can be hazardous to the passage of fish, in particular migratory juvenile salmonids. Although numerous laboratory tests have evaluated the effect of rapid decompression in fish species of relevance, numerical modeling studies offer the advantage of predicting, for new turbine designs, the potential risks of mortality and injury from rapid pressure change during turbine passage. However, rapid pressure change is only one of several hydraulic risks encountered by fish during turbine passage in addition to blade strike, shear, and turbulence. To better understand the role of rapid pressure changes, the present work focuses on the application of a computational fluid dynamics based method for evaluating the risk of pressure-related mortality to fish passing through an early 1960s era original hydroelectric Kaplan turbine at Wanapum Dam (Columbia River, Washington), and a modern advanced Kaplan turbine installed in 2005. The results show that the modeling approach acceptably reproduced the nadir pressure distributions compared to field data previously collected at the site using an autonomous sensor. Our findings show that the new advanced-design unit performs better, in terms of reduced barotrauma risk to fish from exposure to low pressures, than the original turbine unit. The outcomes allow for comparative analyses of turbine designs and operations prior to installation, an advantage that can potentially be integrated in the process of designing new turbine units to achieve superior environmental performance. Overall, the results show that modern turbine designs can achieve the multiple objectives of increasing power generation, lowering cavitation potential, and reducing barotrauma risks to passing fish.

  4. The Risk-Stratified Osteoporosis Strategy Evaluation study (ROSE)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rubin, Katrine Hass; Holmberg, Teresa; Rothmann, Mette Juel

    2015-01-01

    The risk-stratified osteoporosis strategy evaluation study (ROSE) is a randomized prospective population-based study investigating the effectiveness of a two-step screening program for osteoporosis in women. This paper reports the study design and baseline characteristics of the study population....... 35,000 women aged 65-80 years were selected at random from the population in the Region of Southern Denmark and-before inclusion-randomized to either a screening group or a control group. As first step, a self-administered questionnaire regarding risk factors for osteoporosis based on FRAX......(®) was issued to both groups. As second step, subjects in the screening group with a 10-year probability of major osteoporotic fractures ≥15 % were offered a DXA scan. Patients diagnosed with osteoporosis from the DXA scan were advised to see their GP and discuss pharmaceutical treatment according to Danish...

  5. Risk Factors For Ectopic Pregnancy : A Case Control Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deshmukh J.S

    1999-01-01

    Full Text Available Research question: Which are the risk factors for ectopic pregnancy . Objective: To study the strength of association between hypothesised risk factors and ectopic pregnancy. Study design: Unmatched case- control study. Setting: Government Medical College, Hospital, Nagpur. Participants: 133 cases of ectopic pregnancy and equal number of controls (non pregnant women admitted to study hospital. Study variables : Pelvic inflammatory diseases, sexually transmitted diseases, IUD use at conception , past use of IUD, prior ectopic pregnancy, OC pills use at the time of conception, past use of OC pills, induced abortion, spontaneous abortion, infertility and pelvic and abdominal surgery. Statistical analysis: Odds ratios & their 95% CI, Pearson’s chi square test, unconditional logistic regression analysis and population attributable risk proportion. Results : Use of IUD at conception, prior ectopic pregnancy , pelvic inflammatory disease, sexually transmitted diseases, infertility, OC pills use at the time of conception, past use of IUD and induced abortion were found to be significantly associated with ectopic pregnancy. Conclusion: Identification of these risk factors for etopic pregnancy shall help in early detection and appropriate management in an individual case and it may help in devising a comprehensive preventive strategy for ectopic pregnancy

  6. Health risk behaviours amongst school adolescents: protocol for a mixed methods study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Youness El Achhab

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Determining risky behaviours of adolescents provides valuable information for designing appropriate intervention programmes for advancing adolescent’s health. However, these behaviours are not fully addressed by researchers in a comprehensive approach. We report the protocol of a mixed methods study designed to investigate the health risk behaviours of Moroccan adolescents with the goal of identifying suitable strategies to address their health concerns. Methods We used a sequential two-phase explanatory mixed method study design. The approach begins with the collection of quantitative data, followed by the collection of qualitative data to explain and enrich the quantitative findings. In the first phase, the global school-based student health survey (GSHS was administered to 800 students who were between 14 and 19 years of age. The second phase engaged adolescents, parents and teachers in focus groups and assessed education documents to explore the level of coverage of health education in the programme learnt in the middle school. To obtain opinions about strategies to reduce Moroccan adolescents’ health risk behaviours, a nominal group technique will be used. Discussion The findings of this mixed methods sequential explanatory study provide insights into the risk behaviours that need to be considered if intervention programmes and preventive strategies are to be designed to promote adolescent’s health in the Moroccan school.

  7. Developing smartphone apps for behavioural studies: The AlcoRisk app case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Anthony; de Salas, Kristy; Lewis, Ian; Schüz, Benjamin

    2017-08-01

    Smartphone apps have emerged as valuable research tools to sample human behaviours at their time of occurrence within natural environments. Human behaviour sampling methods, such as Ecological Momentary Assessment (EMA), aim to facilitate research that is situated in ecologically valid real world environments rather than laboratory environments. Researchers have trialled a range of EMA smartphone apps to sample human behaviours such as dieting, physical activity and smoking. Software development processes for EMA smartphones apps, however, are not widely documented with little guidance provided for the integration of complex multidisciplinary behavioural and technical fields. In this paper, the AlcoRisk app for studying alcohol consumption and risk taking tendencies is presented alongside a software development process that integrates these multidisciplinary fields. The software development process consists of three stages including requirements analysis, feature and interface design followed by app implementation. Results from a preliminary feasibility study support the efficacy of the AlcoRisk app's software development process. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Design of Process Displays based on Risk Analysis Techniques

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Paulsen, Jette Lundtang

    -tions. On the basis of her experience with the design of display systems; with risk analysis methods and from 8 years, as an engi-neer-on-shift at a research reactor, the author developed a method to elicit necessary information to the operator. The method, a combination of a Goal-Tree and a Fault-Tree, is described...

  9. Flavonoids, Flavonoid Subclasses, and Esophageal Cancer Risk: A Meta-Analysis of Epidemiologic Studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, Lingling; Liu, Xinxin; Tian, Yalan; Xie, Chen; Li, Qianwen; Cui, Han; Sun, Changqing

    2016-06-08

    Flavonoids have been suggested to play a chemopreventive role in carcinogenesis. However, the epidemiologic studies assessing dietary intake of flavonoids and esophageal cancer risk have yielded inconsistent results. This study was designed to examine the association between flavonoids, each flavonoid subclass, and the risk of esophageal cancer with a meta-analysis approach. We searched for all relevant studies with a prospective cohort or case-control study design published from January 1990 to April 2016, using PUBMED, EMBASE, and Web of Science. Pooled odds ratios (ORs) were calculated using fixed or random-effect models. In total, seven articles including 2629 cases and 481,193 non-cases were selected for the meta-analysis. Comparing the highest-intake patients with the lowest-intake patients for total flavonoids and for each flavonoid subclass, we found that anthocyanidins (OR = 0.60, 95% CI: 0.49-0.74), flavanones (OR = 0.65, 95% CI: 0.49-0.86), and flavones (OR = 0.78, 95% CI 0.64-0.95) were inversely associated with the risk of esophageal cancer. However, total flavonoids showed marginal association with esophageal cancer risk (OR = 0.78, 95% CI: 0.59-1.04). In conclusion, our study suggested that dietary intake of total flavonoids, anthocyanidins, flavanones, and flavones might reduce the risk of esophageal cancer.

  10. Genetic risk of rhegmatogenous retinal detachment a familial aggregation study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S.L. Go (Sioe Lie); C. Hoyng (Carel); C.C.W. Klaver (Caroline)

    2005-01-01

    textabstractObjective: To investigate the magnitude of the genetic risk of nonsyndromic rhegmatogenous retinal detachments (RRDs) in a familial aggregation study. Design: Two hundred three consecutive patients with RRD and 461 controls without RRD were ascertained at the Department of Ophthalmology

  11. EDRP public local inquiry, UKAEA/BNFL precognition on: Risk targets and EDRP design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brown, M.L.

    1986-06-01

    A full description is presented of the extent to which risk is controlled by the targets to be implemented in the proposed EDRP design, including a discussion of a particular accident sequence. Risk expressions and the usefulness of risk criteria are reviewed. Details are given of the accident consequence modelling as used by the UKAEA. Terrorist attack and sabotage are briefly discussed. (UK)

  12. Sensitivity of measuring the progress in financial risk protection to survey design and its socioeconomic and demographic determinants: A case study in Rwanda.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Chunling; Liu, Kai; Li, Lingling; Yang, Yuhong

    2017-04-01

    Reliable and comparable information on households with catastrophic health expenditure (HCHE) is crucial for monitoring and evaluating our progress towards achieving universal financial risk protection. This study aims to investigate the sensitivity of measuring the progress in financial risk protection to survey design and its socioeconomic and demographic determinants. Using the Rwanda Integrated Living Conditions Survey in 2005 and 2010/2011, we derived the level and trend of the percentage of the HCHE using out-of-pocket health spending data derived from (1) a health module with a two-week recall period and six (2005)/seven (2010/2011) survey questions (Method 1) and (2) a consumption module with a four-week/ten-/12-month recall period and 11(2005)/24 (2010/2011) questions (Method 2). Using multilevel logistic regression analysis, we investigated the household socioeconomic and demographic characteristics that affected the sensitivity of estimating the HCHE to survey design. We found that Method 1 generated a significantly higher HCHE estimate (9.2%, 95% confidence interval 8.4%-10.0%) than Method2 (7.4%, 6.6%-8.1%) in 2005 and lower estimate (5.6%, 5.2%-6.1%) than Method 2 (8.2%, 7.6%-8.7%) in 2010/2011. The estimated trends of the HCHE using the two methods were not consistent between the two years. A household's size, its income quintile, having no under-five children, and educational level of its head were positively associated with the consistency of its HCHE status when using the two survey methods. Estimates of the progress in financial risk protection, especially among the most vulnerable households, are sensitive to survey design. These results are robust to various thresholds of catastrophic health spending. Future work must focus on mitigating survey effects through the development of statistical tools. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Traffic risk behavior and perceptions of Thai motorcyclists: A case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prathurng Hongsranagon

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed to investigate Thai motorcyclists' traffic risk behavior and their perceptions of it, information of value in the design and implementation of public health policies and campaigns for the reduction of road injuries. Data was collected by a self-administered questionnaire completed by 399 motorcyclists in Muang Krabi district, Krabi province, Thailand. The questionnaire focused on the respondents' perceptions of general traffic risks and the specific risks at 3 identified hazardous sites. The results of the survey indicated that the correct fastening of helmet straps had a relationship with responsible traffic risk perceptions.

  14. Conceptual design study of fusion experimental reactor (FY86 FER)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miki, Nobuharu; Iida, Fumio; Suzuki, Shohei; Wachi, Yoshihiro; Toyoda, Katsuyoshi; Hashizume, Takashi; Konno, Masayuki.

    1987-09-01

    This report summarizes the FER magnet design which was conducted last year (1986). Main objective of the new FER design is to have better cost performance of the machine. The physics assumptions are reviewed to reduce risks. Optimization of the physics design and improvements of the engineering design have been done without changing missions of the device. After a preliminary investigation for the optimization and improvements, six FER concepts have been developed to establish the improved design point, and have been studied in more detail. In the magnet design, the improvements of superconducting magnet design were mainly investigated to reduce the reactor size. A normal conductor was studied as an alternative option for appling to the special poloidal field coils that were located on the interior to the toroidal field coils. Some improvements were made on the superconducting magnet design. Based on the preliminary investigation, the magnet design specifications have been modified somewhat. The conceptual design of the magnet system components have been done for the candidate FER concepts. (author)

  15. Updating risk prediction tools: a case study in prostate cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ankerst, Donna P; Koniarski, Tim; Liang, Yuanyuan; Leach, Robin J; Feng, Ziding; Sanda, Martin G; Partin, Alan W; Chan, Daniel W; Kagan, Jacob; Sokoll, Lori; Wei, John T; Thompson, Ian M

    2012-01-01

    Online risk prediction tools for common cancers are now easily accessible and widely used by patients and doctors for informed decision-making concerning screening and diagnosis. A practical problem is as cancer research moves forward and new biomarkers and risk factors are discovered, there is a need to update the risk algorithms to include them. Typically, the new markers and risk factors cannot be retrospectively measured on the same study participants used to develop the original prediction tool, necessitating the merging of a separate study of different participants, which may be much smaller in sample size and of a different design. Validation of the updated tool on a third independent data set is warranted before the updated tool can go online. This article reports on the application of Bayes rule for updating risk prediction tools to include a set of biomarkers measured in an external study to the original study used to develop the risk prediction tool. The procedure is illustrated in the context of updating the online Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial Risk Calculator to incorporate the new markers %freePSA and [-2]proPSA measured on an external case-control study performed in Texas, U.S.. Recent state-of-the art methods in validation of risk prediction tools and evaluation of the improvement of updated to original tools are implemented using an external validation set provided by the U.S. Early Detection Research Network. Copyright © 2012 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  16. Effects of policies designed to keep firearms from high-risk individuals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webster, Daniel W; Wintemute, Garen J

    2015-03-18

    This article summarizes and critiques available evidence from studies published between 1999 and August 2014 on the effects of policies designed to keep firearms from high-risk individuals in the United States. Some prohibitions for high-risk individuals (e.g., those under domestic violence restraining orders, violent misdemeanants) and procedures for checking for more types of prohibiting conditions are associated with lower rates of violence. Certain laws intended to prevent prohibited persons from accessing firearms-rigorous permit-to-purchase, comprehensive background checks, strong regulation and oversight of gun dealers, and requiring gun owners to promptly report lost or stolen firearms-are negatively associated with the diversion of guns to criminals. Future research is needed to examine whether these laws curtail nonlethal gun violence and whether the effects of expanding prohibiting conditions for firearm possession are modified by the presence of policies to prevent diversion.

  17. Genetic risk of rhegmatogenous retinal detachment: a familial aggregation study.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Go, S.L.; Hoyng, C.B.; Klaver, C.C.W.

    2005-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To investigate the magnitude of the genetic risk of nonsyndromic rhegmatogenous retinal detachments (RRDs) in a familial aggregation study. DESIGN: Two hundred three consecutive patients with RRD and 461 controls without RRD were ascertained at the Department of Ophthalmology of the

  18. Risk assessment and experimental design in the development of a prolonged release drug delivery system with paliperidone.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iurian, Sonia; Turdean, Luana; Tomuta, Ioan

    2017-01-01

    This study focuses on the development of a drug product based on a risk assessment-based approach, within the quality by design paradigm. A prolonged release system was proposed for paliperidone (Pal) delivery, containing Kollidon ® SR as an insoluble matrix agent and hydroxypropyl cellulose, hydroxypropyl methylcellulose (HPMC), or sodium carboxymethyl cellulose as a hydrophilic polymer. The experimental part was preceded by the identification of potential sources of variability through Ishikawa diagrams, and failure mode and effects analysis was used to deliver the critical process parameters that were further optimized by design of experiments. A D-optimal design was used to investigate the effects of Kollidon SR ratio ( X 1 ), the type of hydrophilic polymer ( X 2 ), and the percentage of hydrophilic polymer ( X 3 ) on the percentages of dissolved Pal over 24 h ( Y 1 - Y 9 ). Effects expressed as regression coefficients and response surfaces were generated, along with a design space for the preparation of a target formulation in an experimental area with low error risk. The optimal formulation contained 27.62% Kollidon SR and 8.73% HPMC and achieved the prolonged release of Pal, with low burst effect, at ratios that were very close to the ones predicted by the model. Thus, the parameters with the highest impact on the final product quality were studied, and safe ranges were established for their variations. Finally, a risk mitigation and control strategy was proposed to assure the quality of the system, by constant process monitoring.

  19. Rationale, design and methods for the RIGHT Track Health Study: pathways from childhood self-regulation to cardiovascular risk in adolescence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wideman, Laurie; Calkins, Susan D; Janssen, James A; Lovelady, Cheryl A; Dollar, Jessica M; Keane, Susan P; Perrin, Eliana M; Shanahan, Lilly

    2016-06-01

    Cardiovascular risk factors during adolescence-including obesity, elevated lipids, altered glucose metabolism, hypertension, and elevated low-grade inflammation-is cause for serious concern and potentially impacts subsequent morbidity and mortality. Despite the importance of these cardiovascular risk factors, very little is known about their developmental origins in childhood. In addition, since adolescence is a time when individuals are navigating major life changes and gaining increasing autonomy from their parents or parental figures, it is a period when control over their own health behaviors (e.g. drug use, sleep, nutrition) also increases. The primary aim of this paper is to describe the rationale, design and methods for the RIGHT Track Health Study. This study examines self-regulation as a key factor in the development of cardiovascular risk, and further explores health behaviors as an explanatory mechanism of this association. We also examine potential moderators (e.g. psychosocial adversities such as harsh parenting) of this association. RIGHT Track is a longitudinal study that investigates social and emotional development. The RIGHT Track Health Study prospectively follows participants from age 2 through young adulthood in an effort to understand how self-regulatory behavior throughout childhood alters the trajectories of various cardiovascular risk factors during late adolescence via health behaviors. Individuals from RIGHT Track were re-contacted and invited to participate in adolescent data collection (~16.5, 17.5 and 18(+) years old). Individuals completed assessments of body composition, anthropometric indicators, fitness testing (via peak oxygen consumption), heart rate variability during orthostatic challenge, 7-day accelerometry for physical activity and sleep, 24-h dietary recalls, and blood analysis for biomarkers related to metabolic syndrome, inflammatory status and various hormones and cytokines. Individuals also completed extensive self

  20. Considering the human factors contribution to the risk in the design choices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Papin, B.

    2004-01-01

    Abstract: With the increasing reliability of the modern technological systems, the human contribution to the global risk in the operation of industrial systems is becoming more and more significant: in the nuclear reactor operation for example, a recent PSA estimation of this contribution is about 25% of the risk of core melting, all situations considered. This urges the designers of future plants to consider the minimization of this Human Factor (HF) contribution, at the very early stage of their design: the experience feedback shows that this is indeed at this stage that the fundamental design options, impacting the most the human reliability in operation, are fixed. The problem is that at these early design stages, it is also quite impossible to apply formal human reliability methods to support this HF optimisation, while the precise operating conditions of the plant are not yet known in enough details. In this paper, another approach of the HF evaluation during the design, based on the functional and operational complexity assessment, is proposed. As an illustration, this approach is used to compare various concepts of nuclear reactors from the point of view of the Human Factor relevance. (authors)

  1. A risk-informed framework for establishing a beyond design basis safety basis for external hazards

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Amico, P. [Hughes Associates, Inc, Baltimore, MD (United States); Anoba, R. [Hughes Associates, Inc, Raleigh, NC (United States); Najafi, B. [Hughes Associates, Inc., Los Gatos, CA (United States)

    2014-07-01

    The events at Fukushima Daiichi taught us that meeting a deterministic design basis requirement for external hazards does not assure that the risk is low. As observed at the plant, the two primary reasons for this are failure cliffs above the design basis event and that combined hazard effects are not considered in design. Because the possible combinations of design basis exceedences and external hazard combinations are very large and complex, an approach focusing only on the most important ones is needed. For this reason, a risk informed approach is the most effective approach, which is discussed in this paper. (author)

  2. Travel health risk perceptions and prevention behaviors of US study abroad students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartjes, Laurie B; Baumann, Linda C; Henriques, Jeffrey B

    2009-01-01

    The number of American study abroad students increased more than 150% in the past decade, along with growth in destinations with increased health risks. This study investigated travel health risk perceptions and prevention behaviors to guide interventions that address the emerging health needs of US study abroad students. A cross-sectional design was used to collect data from 318 American study abroad students using a Web-based survey. The primary source of travel health information was youth-oriented travel guidebooks (85%). The grand mean risk perception score for 18 travel health threats was 1.7 on a 1 to 4 scale, with top-rated threats being contaminated food/water, psychological distress, personal assault, and excessive sun exposure. Predeparture advice was received from primary care providers (52%) and travel health specialists (18%). Additional prevention measures were vaccines (42%) and medication (24%). Of 114 students listing their travel vaccinations, 11% described receiving a malaria vaccine and 4% a hepatitis C vaccine, although no such vaccines exist. Most respondents were confident/very confident in their ability to engage in prevention behaviors (94%). Health problems were primarily infectious disease (70%), psychological distress (10%), and injuries (8%). When asked if prior travel destinations involved areas where malaria transmission occurs, 20% responded, "Don't know." Identified gaps in travel health knowledge and prevention behaviors may produce hazardous consequences when combined with low-perceived risk, reliance on travel guidebooks for health information, and high ratings for prevention self-efficacy. Future research is needed to test the effectiveness of educational interventions designed for student travelers who would benefit from guided practice with destination-specific risk appraisal and prevention planning. Web-based educational resources are a good fit for this population because they are easily updated, available in all phases of

  3. A new stratified risk assessment tool for whiplash injuries developed from a prospective observational study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kasch, Helge; Kongsted, Alice; Qerama, Erisela

    2013-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: An initial stratification of acute whiplash patients into seven risk-strata in relation to 1-year work disability as primary outcome is presented. DESIGN: The design was an observational prospective study of risk factors embedded in a randomised controlled study. SETTING: Acute whiplash...... patients from units, general practitioners in four Danish counties were referred to two research centres. PARTICIPANTS: During a 2-year inclusion period, acute consecutive whiplash-injured (age 18-70 years, rear-end or frontal-end car accident and WAD (whiplash-associated disorders) grades I-III, symptoms...... and examined by a study nurse after 5 days; 605 were completed after 1 year. A risk score which included items of initial neck pain/headache intensity, a number of non-painful complaints and active neck mobility was applied. The primary outcome parameter was 1-year work disability. RESULTS: The risk score...

  4. Design of a community-based intergenerational oral health study: ?Baby Smiles?

    OpenAIRE

    Milgrom, Peter; Riedy, Christine A; Weinstein, Philip; Mancl, Lloyd A; Garson, Gayle; Huebner, Colleen E; Smolen, Darlene; Sutherland, Marilynn

    2013-01-01

    Background Rural, low-income pregnant women and their children are at high risk for poor oral health and have low utilization rates of dental care. The Baby Smiles study was designed to increase low-income pregnant women?s utilization of dental care, increase young children?s dental care utilization, and improve home oral health care practices. Methods/design Baby Smiles was a five-year, four-site randomized intervention trial with a 2 ? 2 factorial design. Four hundred participants were rand...

  5. Optimum study designs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, C; Rao, D C

    2001-01-01

    Because simplistic designs will lead to prohibitively large sample sizes, the optimization of genetic study designs is critical for successfully mapping genes for complex diseases. Creative designs are necessary for detecting and amplifying the usually weak signals for complex traits. Two important outcomes of a study design--power and resolution--are implicitly tied together by the principle of uncertainty. Overemphasis on either one may lead to suboptimal designs. To achieve optimality for a particular study, therefore, practical measures such as cost-effectiveness must be used to strike a balance between power and resolution. In this light, the myriad of factors involved in study design can be checked for their effects on the ultimate outcomes, and the popular existing designs can be sorted into building blocks that may be useful for particular situations. It is hoped that imaginative construction of novel designs using such building blocks will lead to enhanced efficiency in finding genes for complex human traits.

  6. Increasing resilience through participative flood risk map design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuchs, Sven; Spira, Yvonne; Stickler, Therese

    2013-04-01

    regarding participation was not the methods used for participation but the involvement of concerned lay persons not only in the design of the hazard and risk maps or the risk assessments itself but the cooperative elaboration of the risk assessment approach especially for the harbour area. Following these principles, flood risk maps were created in the underlying EU-project DANUBE FLOODRISK. In this ETC SEE project "DANUBE FLOODRISK - Stakeholder Oriented Assessment of the Danube Floodplains" (2009-2012), hazard and risk maps harmonized across borders for the Danube main stream were produced. This way the overall DANUBE FLOODRISK project contributed to Article 6 of the EU Floods Directive, the hazard and risk maps for international river basins, and provides with the involvement of the national and regional stakeholders the first step to the implementation of Article 7, the Flood Risk Management Plans. By testing the involvement of the broad public and local stakeholders, first exemplary steps were taken for local flood risk management planning. A first set of maps was created for an underlying hazard scenario of a 1-in-100 year flood affecting the city of Krems assuming a failure of the temporal flood protection due to the impact of a ship in the area of the pier. Moreover, both, hazard scenarios with and without a second line of defence were visualised. The set of maps includes (a) an evaluative risk map showing the risk qualitatively aggregated for each building exposed and the number of affected citizens, (b) an evaluative risk map showing the risk qualitatively aggregated per square footage for each building exposed and the number of affected citizens, (c) an evaluative risk map showing the risk quantitatively in monetary units per square footage for each building exposed and the number of affected citizens, and (d) as well as (e) risk maps according to (a) and (b) without the second line of defence in order to communicate the effectiveness of temporal flood protection

  7. Risk-based design of process plants with regard to domino effects and land use planning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Khakzad, Nima, E-mail: nkhakzad@gmail.com [Safety and Security Science Group (S3G), Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, TU Delft, Delft (Netherlands); Reniers, Genserik [Safety and Security Science Group (S3G), Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, TU Delft, Delft (Netherlands); Antwerp Research Group on Safety and Security (ARGoSS), Faculty of Applied Economics, Universiteit Antwerpen, Antwerp (Belgium); Research Group CEDON, Campus Brussels, KULeuven, Brussels (Belgium)

    2015-12-15

    Highlights: • A Bayesian network methodology has been developed to estimate the total probability of major accidents in chemical plants. • Total probability of accidents includes the probability of individual accidents and potential domino effects. • The methodology has been extended to calculate on-site and off-site risks. • The results of the risk analysis have been used in a multi-criteria decision analysis technique to risk-based design of chemical plants. - Abstract: Land use planning (LUP) as an effective and crucial safety measure has widely been employed by safety experts and decision makers to mitigate off-site risks posed by major accidents. Accordingly, the concept of LUP in chemical plants has traditionally been considered from two perspectives: (i) land developments around existing chemical plants considering potential off-site risks posed by major accidents and (ii) development of existing chemical plants considering nearby land developments and the level of additional off-site risks the land developments would be exposed to. However, the attempts made to design chemical plants with regard to LUP requirements have been few, most of which have neglected the role of domino effects in risk analysis of major accidents. To overcome the limitations of previous work, first, we developed a Bayesian network methodology to calculate both on-site and off-site risks of major accidents while taking domino effects into account. Second, we combined the results of risk analysis with Analytic Hierarchical Process to design an optimal layout for which the levels of on-site and off-site risks would be minimum.

  8. Risk-based Process Development of Biosimilars as Part of the Quality by Design Paradigm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zalai, Dénes; Dietzsch, Christian; Herwig, Christoph

    2013-01-01

    In the last few years, several quality by design (QbD) studies demonstrated the benefit of systematic approaches for biopharmaceutical development. However, only very few studies identified biosimilars as a special case of product development. The targeted quality profile of biosimilars is strictly defined by the originator's product characteristic. Moreover, the major source of prior knowledge is the experience with the originator product itself. Processing this information in biosimilar development has a major effect on risk management and process development strategies. The main objective of this contribution is to demonstrate how risk management can facilitate the implementation of QbD in early-stage product development with special emphasis on fitting the reported approaches to biosimilars. Risk assessments were highlighted as important tools to integrate prior knowledge in biosimilar development. The risk assessment process as suggested by the International Conference on Harmonization (ICH Q9) was reviewed and three elements were identified to play a key role in targeted risk assessment approaches: proper understanding of target linkage, risk assessment tool compliance, and criticality threshold value. Adjusting these steps to biosimilar applications helped to address some unique challenges of these products such as a strictly defined quality profile or a lack of process knowledge. This contribution demonstrates the need for tailored risk management approaches for the risk-based development of biosimilars and provides novel tools for the integration of additional knowledge available for these products. The pharmaceutical industry is facing challenges such as profit loss and price competition. Companies are forced to rationalize business models and to cut costs in development as well as manufacturing. These trends recently hinder the implementation of any concepts that do not offer certain financial benefit or promise a long return of investment. Quality by

  9. Case-control study on uveal melanoma (RIFA: rational and design

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Schmidt-Pokrzywniak Andrea

    2004-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Although a rare disease, uveal melanoma is the most common primary intraocular malignancy in adults, with an incidence rate of up to 1.0 per 100,000 persons per year in Europe. Only a few consistent risk factors have been identified for this disease. We present the study design of an ongoing incident case-control study on uveal melanoma (acronym: RIFA study that focuses on radiofrequency radiation as transmitted by radio sets and wireless telephones, occupational risk factors, phenotypical characteristics, and UV radiation. Methods/Design We conduct a case-control study to identify the role of different exposures in the development of uveal melanoma. The cases of uveal melanoma were identified at the Division of Ophthalmology, University of Essen, a referral centre for tumours of the eye. We recruit three control groups: population controls, controls sampled from those ophthalmologists who referred cases to the Division of Ophthalmology, University of Duisburg-Essen, and sibling controls. For each case the controls are matched on sex and age (five year groups, except for sibling controls. The data are collected from the study participants by short self-administered questionnaire and by telephone interview. During and at the end of the field phase, the data are quality-checked. To estimate the effect of exposures on uveal melanoma risk, we will use conditional logistic regression that accounts for the matching factors and allows to control for potential confounding.

  10. A social work study high-risk behavior among teenagers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Reza Iravani

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Teenagers are believed the people who are supposed to build the world's future. High-risk behaviors such as addiction to drugs, smoking cigarettes, sex, etc. could significantly hurts teenagers and there must be some supporting programs to reduce these issues as much as possible. This paper performs an empirical investigation to study the different factors influencing high- risk behavior among teenagers who live in a city of Esfahan, Iran. The proposed study designs a questionnaire and distribute between two groups of female and male teenagers. The results indicate that while there is a meaningful relationship between high-risk behaviors and average high school marks among male students there is no meaningful relationship between high-risk behaviors and high school grades among female students. The results also indicate that there is a meaningful difference between gender and high-risk behavior. The season of birth for female and male students is another important factor for having high-risk behaviors. While the order of birth plays an important role among male students, the order of birth is not an important factor among female teenagers. Finally, the results indicate that teenagers' parental financial affordability plays a vital role on both female and male teenagers.

  11. The BioImage Study: novel approaches to risk assessment in the primary prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease--study design and objectives

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Muntendam, Pieter; McCall, Carol; Sanz, Javier; Falk, Erling; Fuster, Valentin; Badimon, Juan José; Botnar, René M.; Daemen, Mat J. A. P.; Fayad, Zahi A.; Garcia, Mario; Ginsburg, Geoffrey S.; Hazen, Stanley L.; King, Spencer B.; Moreno, Pedro R.; Nordestgaard, Børge G.; Rudd, James H. F.; Shah, Predimon K.; Sillesen, Henrik; van der Steen, Antonius F. W.; Yacoub, Magdi H.; Yuan, Chun; Bui, James T.; Chen, Christopher J.; Seow, Albert; Plump, Andrew; Raichlen, Joel; Smit, Paul; Stolzenbach, James C.; Urquhart, Richard

    2010-01-01

    The identification of asymptomatic individuals at risk for near-term atherothrombotic events to ensure optimal preventive treatment remains a challenging goal. In the BioImage Study, novel approaches are tested in a typical health-plan population. Based on certain demographic and risk

  12. Cumulative risk, cumulative outcome: a 20-year longitudinal study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leslie Atkinson

    Full Text Available Cumulative risk (CR models provide some of the most robust findings in the developmental literature, predicting numerous and varied outcomes. Typically, however, these outcomes are predicted one at a time, across different samples, using concurrent designs, longitudinal designs of short duration, or retrospective designs. We predicted that a single CR index, applied within a single sample, would prospectively predict diverse outcomes, i.e., depression, intelligence, school dropout, arrest, smoking, and physical disease from childhood to adulthood. Further, we predicted that number of risk factors would predict number of adverse outcomes (cumulative outcome; CO. We also predicted that early CR (assessed at age 5/6 explains variance in CO above and beyond that explained by subsequent risk (assessed at ages 12/13 and 19/20. The sample consisted of 284 individuals, 48% of whom were diagnosed with a speech/language disorder. Cumulative risk, assessed at 5/6-, 12/13-, and 19/20-years-old, predicted aforementioned outcomes at age 25/26 in every instance. Furthermore, number of risk factors was positively associated with number of negative outcomes. Finally, early risk accounted for variance beyond that explained by later risk in the prediction of CO. We discuss these findings in terms of five criteria posed by these data, positing a "mediated net of adversity" model, suggesting that CR may increase some central integrative factor, simultaneously augmenting risk across cognitive, quality of life, psychiatric and physical health outcomes.

  13. Design of the sex hormones and physical exercise (SHAPE study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peeters Petra HM

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Physical activity has been associated with a decreased risk for breast cancer. The biological mechanismn(s underlying the association between physical activity and breast cancer is not clear. Most prominent hypothesis is that physical activity may protect against breast cancer through reduced lifetime exposure to endogenous hormones either direct, or indirect by preventing overweight and abdominal adiposity. In order to get more insight in the causal pathway between physical activity and breast cancer risk, we designed the Sex Hormones and Physical Exercise (SHAPE study. Purpose of SHAPE study is to examine the effects of a 1-year moderate-to-vigorous intensity exercise programme on endogenous hormone levels associated with breast cancer among sedentary postmenopausal women and whether the amount of total body fat or abdominal fat mediates the effects. Methods/Design In the SHAPE study, 189 sedentary postmenopausal women, aged 50–69 years, are randomly allocated to an intervention or a control group. The intervention consists of an 1-year moderate-to-vigorous intensity aerobic and strenght training exercise programme. Partcipants allocated to the control group are requested to retain their habitual exercise pattern. Primary study parameters measured at baseline, at four months and at 12 months are: serum concentrations of endogenous estrogens, endogenous androgens, sex hormone binding globuline and insuline. Other study parameters include: amount of total and abdominal fat, weight, BMI, body fat distribution, physical fitness, blood pressure and lifestyle factors. Discussion This study will contribute to the body of evidence relating physical activity and breast cancer risk and will provide insight into possible mechanisms through which physical activity might be associated with reduced risk of breast cancer in postmenopausal women. Trial registration NCT00359060

  14. Importance measures and genetic algorithms for designing a risk-informed optimally balanced system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zio, Enrico; Podofillini, Luca

    2007-01-01

    This paper deals with the use of importance measures for the risk-informed optimization of system design and management. An optimization approach is presented in which the information provided by the importance measures is incorporated in the formulation of a multi-objective optimization problem to drive the design towards a solution which, besides being optimal from the points of view of economics and safety, is also 'balanced' in the sense that all components have similar importance values. The approach allows identifying design systems without bottlenecks or unnecessarily high-performing components and with test/maintenance activities calibrated according to the components' importance ranking. The approach is tested at first against a multi-state system design optimization problem in which off-the-shelf components have to be properly allocated. Then, the more realistic problem of risk-informed optimization of the technical specifications of a safety system of a nuclear power plant is addressed

  15. Risk indices in comparative risk assessment studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubert, P.

    1984-01-01

    More than a decade ago the development of comparative risk assessment studies aroused overwhelming interest. There was no doubt that data on the health and safety aspects of energy systems would greatly benefit, or even end, the debate on nuclear energy. Although such attempts are still strongly supported, the rose-coloured expectations of the early days have faded. The high uncertainties, and the contradictory aspect, of the first results might explain this evolution. The loose connection between the range of computed risk indices and the questions on which the debate was focused is another reason for this decline in interest. Important research work is being carried out aiming at reducing the different kinds of uncertainties. Rather than the uncertainties, the paper considers the meaning of available risk indices and proposes more significant indices with respect to the goals of risk assessment. First, the indices which are of frequent use in comparative studies are listed. The stress is put on a French comparative study from which most examples are drawn. Secondly, the increase in magnitude of the indices and the decrease in the attributability of the risk to a given system is shown to be a consequence of the trend towards more comprehensive analyses. Thirdly, the ambiguity of such indices as the collective occupational risk is underlined, and a possible solution is suggested. Whenever risk assessments are related to pragmatic decision making problems it is possible to find satisfactory risk indices. The development of cost-effectiveness analyses and the proposals for quantitative safety goals clearly demonstrate this point. In the field of comparison of social impacts some proposals are made, but there remain some gaps still to be filled. (author)

  16. Emergency Response Program Designing Based On Case Study ERP Regulations In Ilam Gas Refinery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehdi Tahmasbi

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available The study of Emergency response plan designing is one of the most important prevention approaches in crisis management. This study aims to design emergency response plan based on case study ERP regulations in Ilam gas refinery. On the basis of risk assessment and identification techniques such as HAZOP and FMEA in Ilam gas refinery the risks have been prioritized and then according to this prioritization the design of possible scenarios which have the highest rate of occurrence and the highest level of damage has been separated. Possible scenarios were simulated with PHAST software. Then emergency response program has been designed for the special mode or similar cases. According to the internal emergency response plan for Ilam gas refinery and predictable conditions of the process special instructions should be considered at the time of the incident to suffer the least damage on people and environment in the shortest time possible.

  17. Perceptions of food risk management among key stakeholders: Results from a cross-European study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kleef, van E.; Frewer, L.J.; Chryssochoidis, G.M.; Houghton, J.R.; Korzen-Bohr, S.; Krystallis, T.; Lassen, J.; Pfenning, U.; Rowe, G.

    2006-01-01

    In designing and implementing appropriate food risk management strategies, it is important to examine how key stakeholders perceive both the practice and effectiveness of food risk management. The objective of this study is to identify similarities and differences in perceptions of, and attitudes

  18. The Female Athlete Body (FAB) study: Rationale, design, and baseline characteristics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, Tiffany M; Pollard, Tarryn; Hildebrandt, Tom; Beyl, Robbie; Wesley, Nicole; Kilpela, Lisa Smith; Becker, Carolyn Black

    2017-09-01

    Eating Disorders (EDs) are serious psychiatric illnesses marked by psychiatric comorbidity, medical complications, and functional impairment. Research indicates that female athletes are often at greater risk for developing ED pathology versus non-athlete females. The Female Athlete Body (FAB) study is a three-site, randomized controlled trial (RCT) designed to assess the efficacy of a behavioral ED prevention program for female collegiate athletes when implemented by community providers. This paper describes the design, intervention, and participant baseline characteristics. Future papers will discuss outcomes. Female collegiate athletes (N=481) aged 17-21 were randomized by site, team, and sport type to either FAB or a waitlist control group. FAB consisted of three sessions (1.3h each) of a behavioral ED prevention program. Assessments were conducted at baseline (pre-intervention), post-intervention (3weeks), and six-, 12-, and 18-month follow-ups. This study achieved 96% (N=481) of target recruitment (N=500). Few group differences emerged at baseline. Total sample analyses revealed moderately low baseline instances of ED symptoms and clinical cases. Health risks associated with EDs necessitate interventions for female athletes. The FAB study is the largest existing RCT for female athletes aimed at both reduction of ED risk factors and ED prevention. The methods presented and population recruited for this study represent an ideal intervention for assessing the effects of FAB on both the aforementioned outcomes. We anticipate that findings of this study (reported in future papers) will make a significant contribution to the ED risk factor reduction and prevention literature. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Nanosafety by design: risks from nanocomposite/nanowaste combustion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bouillard, Jacques X.; R’Mili, Badr; Moranviller, Daniel; Vignes, Alexis; Le Bihan, Olivier; Ustache, Aurelien; Bomfim, Joao A. S.; Frejafon, Emeric; Fleury, Dominique

    2013-01-01

    Risks associated with the end-of-life of nanomaterials are an issue that needs to be addressed so that the public perception and opinion, with regard to these emerging technological products, can effectively be supported by experimental evidences. In order to find new ecological ways to treat nanoproducts at their end-of-life, a new home-made demonstrator system was setup at INERIS, specifically designed to perform burning tests, coupled to a differential thermal analyzer to monitor the combustion kinetics. To assess nanoobject release during combustion, a high-performance nanocomposite polymer commonly used in the automotive industry, namely the polymeric compound acrylonitrile butadiene styrene matrix mixed with 3 wt% of multiwalled carbon nanotubes (MWCNTs) was tested. To assess the potential release of carbon nanotubes (CNTs) during the combustion with this tool, the particle size distribution in the fumes was measured using an electrical low pressure impactor, and CNTs were collected using an aspiration-based transmission electron microscopy grid sampler. One of primary objective of these preliminary tests described in this study consisted in validating whether CNT fibers can be released in the gas phase during the combustion of a polymeric matrix filled with CNTs. It was found indeed that MWCNT of about 12-nm diameter and 600-nm length can be released in the ambient environment during combustion of 3 % MWCNT ABS. Such information is critical to assess whether a nanoproduct can be deemed to be considered as “nanosafe by design” in its risk assessment.

  20. The MOBILIZE Boston Study: Design and methods of a prospective cohort study of novel risk factors for falls in an older population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hannan Marian T

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Falls are the sixth leading cause of death in elderly people in the U.S. Despite progress in understanding risk factors for falls, many suspected risk factors have not been adequately studied. Putative risk factors for falls such as pain, reductions in cerebral blood flow, somatosensory deficits, and foot disorders are poorly understood, in part because they pose measurement challenges, particularly for large observational studies. Methods The MOBILIZE Boston Study (MBS, an NIA-funded Program Project, is a prospective cohort study of a unique set of risk factors for falls in seniors in the Boston area. Using a door-to-door population-based recruitment, we have enrolled 765 persons aged 70 and older. The baseline assessment was conducted in 2 segments: a 3-hour home interview followed within 4 weeks by a 3-hour clinic examination. Measures included pain, cerebral hemodynamics, and foot disorders as well as established fall risk factors. For the falls follow-up, participants return fall calendar postcards to the research center at the end of each month. Reports of falls are followed-up with a telephone interview to assess circumstances and consequences of each fall. A second assessment is performed 18 months following baseline. Results Of the 2382 who met all eligibility criteria at the door, 1616 (67.8% agreed to participate and were referred to the research center for further screening. The primary reason for ineligibility was inability to communicate in English. Results from the first 600 participants showed that participants are largely representative of seniors in the Boston area in terms of age, sex, race and Hispanic ethnicity. The average age of study participants was 77.9 years (s.d. 5.5 and nearly two-thirds were women. The study cohort was 78% white and 17% black. Many participants (39% reported having fallen at least once in the year before baseline. Conclusion Our results demonstrate the feasibility of conducting

  1. Designing an integrated model based on the indicators Quality and Earned Value for risk management in Information Technology Projects

    OpenAIRE

    TATLARI, Mohammad Reza; KAZEMİPOOR, Hamed

    2015-01-01

    There are two effective factors on Information Technology (IT) projects risk including quality and earned value so that by controlling these two factors and their increased level in IT projects, the corresponding risk can be decreased. Therefore in present study, an integrated model was designed based on quality and earned value indicators for risk management in IT projects on a new and efficient approach. The proposed algorithm included the steps such as preparing a list of several indicator...

  2. Knowledge-based software design for Defense-in-Depth risk monitor system and application for AP1000

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ma Zhanguo; Yoshikawa, Hidekazu; Yang Ming; Nakagawa, Takashi

    2017-01-01

    As part of the new risk monitor system, the software for the plant Defense-in-Depth (DiD) risk monitor system was designed based on the state-transition and finite-state machine, and then the knowledge-based software was developed by object-oriented method utilizing the Unified Modeling Language (UML). Currently, there are mainly two functions in the developed plant DiD risk monitor software that are knowledge-base editor which is used to model the system in a hierarchical manner and the interaction simulator that simulates the interactions between the different actors in the model. In this paper, a model for playing its behavior is called an Actor which is modeled at the top level. The passive safety AP1000 power plant was studied and the small-break loss-of-coolant accident (SBLOCA) design basis accident transient is modeled using the plant DiD risk monitor software. Furthermore, the simulation result is shown for the interactions between the actors which are defined in the plant DiD risk monitor system as PLANT actor, OPERATOR actor, and SUPERVISOR actor. This paper shows that it is feasible to model the nuclear power plant knowledge base using the software modeling technique. The software can make the large knowledge base for the nuclear power plant with small effort. (author)

  3. Supply chain design approaches for supply chain resilience: A qualitative study of South African fast-moving consumer goods grocery manufacturers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Assilah Agigi

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Orientation: In today’s globalised and complex business environment, firms are ever more vulnerable to supply chain disruptions, originating both internally and externally from the supply chain. Supply chain resilience minimises the impact of a disruption through design approaches, which allows the supply chain to respond appropriately to disruptive events. Research purpose: This article investigated the supply chain risks faced by grocery manufacturers in the South African fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG industry and explored supply chain design approaches that enable supply chain resilience. Motivation for the study: South African grocery manufacturers are faced with distinct risks. Whilst supply chain risk management studies have provided firms with certain guidelines to mitigate risk, supply chains are still vulnerable to unanticipated risks. Literature on supply chain resilience in the South African context is scant. The concept of supply chain resilience provides firms with strategies that are built into the supply chain that allow firms to react and recover swiftly from disruptions. Furthermore, supply chain resilience strategies assist firms in becoming less vulnerable to possible disruptions. Research design approach and method: This study was conducted by using a descriptive qualitative research design. Data were collected through semi-structured interviews with senior supply chain practitioners specifically within the South African FMCG grocery manufacturing industry. Main findings: The study found that labour unrest is the most common risk faced by the industry. Furthermore, strategic stock and supply chain mapping are of the most useful design approaches to enhance supply chain resilience. Practical/managerial implications: The study provides managers with new insights in guiding supply chain design decisions for resilient supply chains. Through the identification of risks and appropriate solutions linked to the various risks

  4. Seroepidemiological Study of Brucellosis in High Risk Groups in Boyerahmad 1384

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    AM Khosravani

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT: Introduction & Objective: Brucellosis is a zoonotic disease that may have a major public health and economic impact in most countries. The disease appears as a Malt fever in humans and abortion in animals. This study was designed to determine the serologic titer of Brucella in high risk and non high risk people in Boyerahmad. Materials & Methods: A retrospective seroepidemiological study was performed on samples collected from 604 high risk and non high risk people using Rose Bengol test, tube standard test as a rapid test and 2 mercaptoethanol (2ME and comb's wright as a confirmatory test. The data collected were analyzed by X2 test via SPSS. Results: Seroprevalence of Brucellosis in high risk people appeared to be high in the Rose Bengal and tube standard test (TST 6.62 at titer ≥1/40 whereas for non high risk it was 0%. Confirmation test in high risk people was shown with 2ME in four people. Conclusion: Brucellosis is a major cause of disease in high risk people which can be due to direct or indirect contact with diary products of the related animals.

  5. Powersail High Power Propulsion System Design Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gulczinski, Frank S., III

    2000-11-01

    A desire by the United States Air Force to exploit the space environment has led to a need for increased on-orbit electrical power availability. To enable this, the Air Force Research Laboratory Space Vehicles Directorate (AFRL/ VS) is developing Powersail: a two-phased program to demonstrate high power (100 kW to 1 MW) capability in space using a deployable, flexible solar array connected to the host spacecraft using a slack umbilical. The first phase will be a proof-of-concept demonstration at 50 kW, followed by the second phase, an operational system at full power. In support of this program, the AFRL propulsion Directorate's Spacecraft Propulsion Branch (AFRL/PRS ) at Edwards AFB has commissioned a design study of the Powersail High Power Propulsion System. The purpose of this study, the results of which are summarized in this paper, is to perform mission and design trades to identify potential full-power applications (both near-Earth and interplanetary) and the corresponding propulsion system requirements and design. The design study shall farther identify a suitable low power demonstration flight that maximizes risk reduction for the fully operational system. This propulsion system is expected to be threefold: (1) primary propulsion for moving the entire vehicle, (2) a propulsion unit that maintains the solar array position relative to the host spacecraft, and (3) control propulsion for maintaining proper orientation for the flexible solar array.

  6. Risk assessment and experimental design in the development of a prolonged release drug delivery system with paliperidone

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iurian S

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Sonia Iurian, Luana Turdean, Ioan Tomuta Department of Pharmaceutical Technology and Biopharmacy, University of Medicine and Pharmacy Iuliu Hatieganu, Cluj-Napoca, Romania Abstract: This study focuses on the development of a drug product based on a risk assessment-based approach, within the quality by design paradigm. A prolonged release system was proposed for paliperidone (Pal delivery, containing Kollidon® SR as an insoluble matrix agent and hydroxypropyl cellulose, hydroxypropyl methylcellulose (HPMC, or sodium carboxymethyl cellulose as a hydrophilic polymer. The experimental part was preceded by the identification of potential sources of variability through Ishikawa diagrams, and failure mode and effects analysis was used to deliver the critical process parameters that were further optimized by design of experiments. A D-optimal design was used to investigate the effects of Kollidon SR ratio (X1, the type of hydrophilic polymer (X2, and the percentage of hydrophilic polymer (X3 on the percentages of dissolved Pal over 24 h (Y1–Y9. Effects expressed as regression coefficients and response surfaces were generated, along with a design space for the preparation of a target formulation in an experimental area with low error risk. The optimal formulation contained 27.62% Kollidon SR and 8.73% HPMC and achieved the prolonged release of Pal, with low burst effect, at ratios that were very close to the ones predicted by the model. Thus, the parameters with the highest impact on the final product quality were studied, and safe ranges were established for their variations. Finally, a risk mitigation and control strategy was proposed to assure the quality of the system, by constant process monitoring. Keywords: pharmaceutical development, quality by design, failure mode effects analysis, Ishikawa diagram, fish-bone diagram, hydrophilic matrix

  7. Carotenoids and risk of fracture: a meta-analysis of observational studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Jiuhong; Song, Chunli; Song, Xiaochao; Zhang, Xi; Li, Xinli

    2017-01-10

    To quantify the association between dietary and circulating carotenoids and fracture risk, a meta-analysis was conducted by searching MEDLINE and EMBASE databases for eligible articles published before May 2016. Five prospective and 2 case-control studies with 140,265 participants and 4,324 cases were identified in our meta-analysis. Among which 5 studies assessed the association between dietary carotenoids levels and hip fracture risk, 2 studies focused on the association between circulating carotenoids levels and any fracture risk. A random-effects model was employed to summarize the risk estimations and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Hip fracture risk among participants with high dietary total carotenoids intake was 28% lower than that in participants with low dietary total carotenoids (OR: 0.72; 95% CI: 0.51, 1.01). A similar risk of hip fracture was found for β-carotene based on 5 studies, the summarized OR for high vs. low dietary β-carotene was 0.72 (95% CI: 0.54, 0.95). However, a significant between-study heterogeneity was found (total carotene: I2 = 59.4%, P = 0.06; β-carotene: I2 = 74.4%, P = 0.04). Other individual carotenoids did not show significant associations with hip fracture risk. Circulating carotene levels had no significant association with any fracture risk, the pooled OR (95% CI) was 0.83 (0.59, 1.17). Based on the evidence from observational studies, our meta-analysis supported the hypothesis that higher dietary total carotenoids or β-carotene intake might be potentially associated with a low risk of hip fracture, however, future well-designed prospective cohort studies and randomized controlled trials are warranted to specify the associations between carotenoids and fracture.

  8. Lift/cruise fan V/STOL technology aircraft design definition study. Volume 2: Propulsion transmission system design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Obrien, W. J.

    1976-01-01

    Two types of lift/cruise fan technology aircraft were conceptually designed. One aircraft used turbotip fans pneumatically interconnected to three gas generators, and the other aircraft used variable pitch fans mechanically interconnected to three turboshaft engines. The components of each propulsion transmission system were analyzed and designed to the depth necessary to determine areas of risk, development methods, performance, weights and costs. The types of materials and manufacturing processes were identified to show that the designs followed a low cost approach. The lift/cruise fan thrust vectoring hoods, which are applicable to either aircraft configuration, were also evaluated to assure a low cost/low risk approach.

  9. HEALTHY study rationale, design and methods: moderating risk of type 2 diabetes in multi-ethnic middle school students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirst, Kathryn; Baranowski, Tom; DeBar, Lynn; Foster, Gary D; Kaufman, Francine; Kennel, Phyllis; Linder, Barbara; Schneider, Margaret; Venditti, Elizabeth M; Yin, Zenong

    2009-08-01

    The HEALTHY primary prevention trial was designed and implemented in response to the growing numbers of children and adolescents being diagnosed with type 2 diabetes. The objective was to moderate risk factors for type 2 diabetes. Modifiable risk factors measured were indicators of adiposity and glycemic dysregulation: body mass index > or =85th percentile, fasting glucose > or =5.55 mmol l(-1) (100 mg per 100 ml) and fasting insulin > or =180 pmol l(-1) (30 microU ml(-1)). A series of pilot studies established the feasibility of performing data collection procedures and tested the development of an intervention consisting of four integrated components: (1) changes in the quantity and nutritional quality of food and beverage offerings throughout the total school food environment; (2) physical education class lesson plans and accompanying equipment to increase both participation and number of minutes spent in moderate-to-vigorous physical activity; (3) brief classroom activities and family outreach vehicles to increase knowledge, enhance decision-making skills and support and reinforce youth in accomplishing goals; and (4) communications and social marketing strategies to enhance and promote changes through messages, images, events and activities. Expert study staff provided training, assistance, materials and guidance for school faculty and staff to implement the intervention components. A cohort of students were enrolled in sixth grade and followed to end of eighth grade. They attended a health screening data collection at baseline and end of study that involved measurement of height, weight, blood pressure, waist circumference and a fasting blood draw. Height and weight were also collected at the end of the seventh grade. The study was conducted in 42 middle schools, six at each of seven locations across the country, with 21 schools randomized to receive the intervention and 21 to act as controls (data collection activities only). Middle school was the unit of

  10. Lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation according to optimal, borderline, or elevated levels of risk factors: cohort study based on longitudinal data from the Framingham Heart Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Staerk, Laila; Wang, Biqi; Preis, Sarah R; Larson, Martin G; Lubitz, Steven A; Ellinor, Patrick T; McManus, David D; Ko, Darae; Weng, Lu-Chen; Lunetta, Kathryn L; Frost, Lars; Benjamin, Emelia J

    2018-01-01

    Abstract Objective To examine the association between risk factor burdens—categorized as optimal, borderline, or elevated—and the lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation. Design Community based cohort study. Setting Longitudinal data from the Framingham Heart Study. Participants Individuals free of atrial fibrillation at index ages 55, 65, and 75 years were assessed. Smoking, alcohol consumption, body mass index, blood pressure, diabetes, and history of heart failure or myocardial infarction were assessed as being optimal (that is, all risk factors were optimal), borderline (presence of borderline risk factors and absence of any elevated risk factor), or elevated (presence of at least one elevated risk factor) at index age. Main outcome measure Lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation at index age up to 95 years, accounting for the competing risk of death. Results At index age 55 years, the study sample comprised 5338 participants (2531 (47.4%) men). In this group, 247 (4.6%) had an optimal risk profile, 1415 (26.5%) had a borderline risk profile, and 3676 (68.9%) an elevated risk profile. The prevalence of elevated risk factors increased gradually when the index ages rose. For index age of 55 years, the lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation was 37.0% (95% confidence interval 34.3% to 39.6%). The lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation was 23.4% (12.8% to 34.5%) with an optimal risk profile, 33.4% (27.9% to 38.9%) with a borderline risk profile, and 38.4% (35.5% to 41.4%) with an elevated risk profile. Overall, participants with at least one elevated risk factor were associated with at least 37.8% lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation. The gradient in lifetime risk across risk factor burden was similar at index ages 65 and 75 years. Conclusions Regardless of index ages at 55, 65, or 75 years, an optimal risk factor profile was associated with a lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation of about one in five; this risk rose to more than one in three in individuals with at least

  11. How young people communicate risks of snowmobiling in northern Norway: a focus group study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehus, Grete; Germeten, Sidsel; Henriksen, Nils

    2011-04-01

    This study aims to understand how the risks of snowmobiling are communicated among northern Norwegian youths. Study design. A qualitative design with focus group interviews was chosen. Interviews centred on safety precautions and estimation of risks related to snowmobiling and driving patterns. Eighty-one students (31 girls and 50 boys) aged between 16 and 23 years from 8 high schools were interviewed in 17 focus groups that were segregated by gender. Interview data were analysed using qualitative content analysis. Boys and girls communicated differently about risks. Peer-group conformity appeared stronger among boys than girls. Boys did not spontaneously relate risks to their snowmobile activities, while girls did. Boys focused upon training, coping and balance between control and lack of control while driving. Girls talked about risks, were aware of risks and sought to avoid risky situations, in contrast to boys. Boys' risk communication in groups was about how to manage challenging situations. Their focus overall was on trying to maintain control while simultaneously testing their limits. Three risk categories emerged: those who drive as they ought to (mostly girls), those who occasionally take some risks (boys and girls) and those who are extreme risk-takers (a smaller number of boys). Perceptions of and communication about risk are related to gender, peer group and familiarity with risk-taking when snowmobiling. Northern Norwegian boys' driving behaviour highlights a specific need for risk reduction, but this must also draw upon factors such as acceptance of social and cultural codes and common sense related to snowmobiling.

  12. Financial risk analysis in the synthesis and design of processing networks: Balancing risk and return

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Quaglia, Alberto; Sin, Gürkan; Gani, Rafiqul

    2014-01-01

    The construction of a processing network is a corporate investment, that processing companies make with the goal of creating the conditions to increase their value. In a previous work, a computer-aided framework supporting the design of processing network under uncertainty has been presented (Qua...... and financial risk models. Through the solution of a small benchmark problem, the impact of financial factors on the optimal network configuration is presented and discussed....

  13. German risk study 'nuclear power plants, phase B'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heuser, F.W.

    1989-01-01

    The results of the German risk study 'Nuclear power plants, phase B' indicate that an accident in a nuclear power plant which cannot be managed by the safety systems according to design, is extremely improbable: Its probability is at about 3 to 100,000 per year and plant. Even if the safety systems fail, emergency measures can be effected in a nuclear power plant to prevent an accident. These in-plant emergency measures diminish the probability of a core meltdown to about 4 to 1,000,000 per year and plant. Hence, the accident risk is greatly reduced. The information given by the author are to smooth the emotional edge in the discussion about the safety of nuclear power plants. (orig.) [de

  14. Rationale and design of INTERSTROKE: a global case-control study of risk factors for stroke

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    O'Donnell, M; Serpault, Damien Xavier; Diener, C

    2010-01-01

    with a first stroke within 72 h of hospital presentation in whom CT or MRI is performed. Proxy respondents are used for cases unable to communicate. Etiological and topographical stroke subtype is documented for all cases. Controls are hospital- and community-based, matched for gender, ethnicity and age (+/-5...... years). A questionnaire (cases and controls) is used to acquire information on known and proposed risk factors for stroke. Cardiovascular (e.g. blood pressure) and anthropometric (e.g. waist-to-hip ratio) measurements are obtained at the time of interview. Nonfasting blood samples and random urine......-income countries is inadequate, where a very large burden of stroke occurs. Accordingly, a similar epidemiological study is required for stroke, to inform effective population-based strategies to reduce the risk of stroke. Methods: INTERSTROKE is an international, multicenter case-control study. Cases are patients...

  15. Design concept of CSRAS (Cyber Security Risk Analysis and Assessment System) for digital I and C systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Song, J. G.; Lee, J. W.; Lee, D. Y.; Lee, C. K.

    2012-01-01

    The instrumentation and control (I and C) systems in nuclear power plants (NPPs) have been digitalized recently. Hence, cyber security becomes an important feature to be incorporated into the I and C systems. The Regulatory Guide 5.71 published by U.C NRC in 2010 presents a comprehensive set of security controls for the cyber security of I and C systems in NPPs. However, the application of security controls specified in the RG 5.71 in a specific I and C system still requires many analysis efforts based on the understanding of the security controls, since the guideline does not provide the details to system designers or developers regarding what, where, and how to apply the security controls. To apply security controls to I and C systems, cyber security requirements should be identified based on the cyber security policy and program, then the design and implementation of security controls should be performed along with the I and C system development life cycle. It can be assumed that cyber security requirements are identified during the system design(SD) phase and the design and implementation of security controls is performed during the component design(CD) phase. When identifying security requirements and performing the design and implementation of security controls, cyber security risk assessments should be processed with the understanding of the characteristics of target systems. In this study, the Cyber Security Risk Analysis and Assessment System (CSRAS) has been developed as a tool for analyzing security requirements and technical security controls considering based on a general cyber security risk assessment procedure with the consideration of the characteristics of I and C systems and the development phases

  16. Design concept of CSRAS (Cyber Security Risk Analysis and Assessment System) for digital I and C systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Song, J. G.; Lee, J. W.; Lee, D. Y.; Lee, C. K. [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2012-10-15

    The instrumentation and control (I and C) systems in nuclear power plants (NPPs) have been digitalized recently. Hence, cyber security becomes an important feature to be incorporated into the I and C systems. The Regulatory Guide 5.71 published by U.C NRC in 2010 presents a comprehensive set of security controls for the cyber security of I and C systems in NPPs. However, the application of security controls specified in the RG 5.71 in a specific I and C system still requires many analysis efforts based on the understanding of the security controls, since the guideline does not provide the details to system designers or developers regarding what, where, and how to apply the security controls. To apply security controls to I and C systems, cyber security requirements should be identified based on the cyber security policy and program, then the design and implementation of security controls should be performed along with the I and C system development life cycle. It can be assumed that cyber security requirements are identified during the system design(SD) phase and the design and implementation of security controls is performed during the component design(CD) phase. When identifying security requirements and performing the design and implementation of security controls, cyber security risk assessments should be processed with the understanding of the characteristics of target systems. In this study, the Cyber Security Risk Analysis and Assessment System (CSRAS) has been developed as a tool for analyzing security requirements and technical security controls considering based on a general cyber security risk assessment procedure with the consideration of the characteristics of I and C systems and the development phases.

  17. Familias Unidas for high risk adolescents: Study design of a cultural adaptation and randomized controlled trial of a U.S. drug and sexual risk behavior intervention in Ecuador.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobs, Petra; Estrada, Yannine A; Tapia, Maria I; Quevedo Terán, Ana M; Condo Tamayo, Cecilia; Albán García, Mónica; Valenzuela Triviño, Gilda M; Pantin, Hilda; Velazquez, Maria R; Horigian, Viviana E; Alonso, Elizabeth; Prado, Guillermo

    2016-03-01

    Developing, testing and implementing evidence-based prevention interventions are important in decreasing substance use and sexual risk behavior among adolescents. This process requires research expertise, infrastructure, resources and decades of research testing, which might not always be feasible for low resource countries. Adapting and testing interventions proven to be efficacious in similar cultures might circumvent the time and costs of implementing evidence-based interventions in new settings. This paper describes the two-phase study, including training and development of the research infrastructure in the Ecuadorian university necessary to implement a randomized controlled trial. Familias Unidas is a multilevel parent-centered intervention designed in the U.S. to prevent drug use and sexual risk behaviors in Hispanic adolescents. The current study consisted of Phase 1 feasibility study (n=38) which adapted the intervention and study procedures within a single-site school setting in an area with a high prevalence of drug use and unprotected sexual behavior among adolescents in Ecuador, and Phase 2 randomized controlled trial of the adapted intervention in two public high schools with a target population of families with adolescents from 12 to 14 years old. The trial is currently in Phase 2. Study recruitment was completed with 239 parent-youth dyads enrolling. The intervention phase and the first follow-up assessment have been completed. The second and third follow-up assessments will be completed in 2016. This project has the potential of benefitting a large population of families in areas of Ecuador that are disproportionally affected by drug trafficking and its consequences. MSP-DIS-2015-0055-0, Ministry of Public Health (MSP), Quito, Ecuador. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Regulatory cost-risk study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1983-04-01

    This study is intended to provide some quantitative perspective by selecting certain examples of criteria for which estimates of risks and costs can be obtained, and the balance of the various risks, (i.e., internal versus external risks), can be put into perspective. 35 refs., 39 tabs

  19. Interim Design Report for the International Design Study for a Neutrino Factory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choubey, S.; Gandhi, R.; Goswami, S.; Berg, J.S.; Fernow, R.; Gallardo, J.C.; Gupta, R.; Kirk, H.; Simos, N.; Souchlas, N.; Ellis, M.

    2011-01-01

    The starting point for the International Design Study for the Neutrino Factory (the IDS-NF) was the output of the earlier International Scoping Study for a future Neutrino Factory and super-beam facility (the ISS). The accelerator facility described in section 2 incorporates the improvements that have been derived from the substantial amount of work carried out within the Accelerator Working Group. Highlights of these improvements include: (1) Initial concepts for the implementation of the proton driver at each of the three example sites, CERN, FNAL, and RAL; (2) Detailed studies of the energy deposition in the target area; (3) A reduction in the length of the muon beam phase-rotation and bunching systems; (4) Detailed analyses of the impact of the risk that stray magnetic field in the accelerating cavities in the ionization cooling channel will reduce the maximum operating gradient. Several alternative ionization-cooling lattices have been developed as fallback options to mitigate this technical risk; (5) Studies of particle loss in the muon front-end and the development of strategies to mitigate the deleterious effects of such losses; (6) The development of more complete designs for the muon linac and re-circulating linacs; (7) The development of a design for the muon FFAG that incorporates insertions for injection and extraction; and (8) Detailed studies of diagnostics in the decay ring. Other sub-systems have undergone a more 'incremental' evolution; an indication that the design of the Neutrino Factory has achieved a degree of maturity. The design of the neutrino detectors described in section 3 has been optimized and the Detector Working Group has made substantial improvements to the simulation and analysis of the Magnetized Iron Neutrino Detector (MIND) resulting in an improvement in the overall neutrino-detection efficiency and a reduction in the neutrino-energy threshold. In addition, initial consideration of the engineering of the MIND has generated a

  20. Regulatory cost-risk study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1983-04-01

    This study is intended to provide some quantitative perspective by selecting certain examples of criteria for which estimates of risks and costs can be obtained, and the balance of the various risks, (i.e., internal versus external risks), can be put into perspective. 35 refs., 39 tabs. (JDB)

  1. Theoretical foundations of the Study of Latino (SOL) Youth: implications for obesity and cardiometabolic risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayala, Guadalupe X; Carnethon, Mercedes; Arredondo, Elva; Delamater, Alan M; Perreira, Krista; Van Horn, Linda; Himes, John H; Eckfeldt, John H; Bangdiwala, Shrikant I; Santisteban, Daniel A; Isasi, Carmen R

    2014-01-01

    This article describes the conceptual model developed for the Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latino Youth, a multisite epidemiologic study of obesity and cardiometabolic risk among U.S. Hispanic/Latino children. Public health, psychology, and sociology research were examined for relevant theories and paradigms. This research, in turn, led us to consider several study design features to best represent both risk and protective factors from multiple levels of influence, as well as the identification of culturally relevant scales to capture identified constructs. The Socio-Ecological Framework, Social Cognitive Theory, family systems theory, and acculturation research informed the specification of our conceptual model. Data are being collected from both children and parents in the household to examine the bidirectional influence of children and their parents, including the potential contribution of intergenerational differences in acculturation as a risk factor. Children and parents are reporting on individual, interpersonal, and perceived organizational and community influences on children's risk for obesity consistent with Socio-Ecological Framework. Much research has been conducted on obesity, yet conceptual models examining risk and protective factors lack specificity in several areas. Study of Latino Youth is designed to fill a gap in this research and inform future efforts. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. The Action to Control Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetes Memory in Diabetes Study (ACCORD-MIND): rationale, design, and methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williamson, Jeff D; Miller, Michael E; Bryan, R Nick; Lazar, Ronald M; Coker, Laura H; Johnson, Janice; Cukierman, Tali; Horowitz, Karen R; Murray, Anne; Launer, Lenore J

    2007-06-18

    Type 2 diabetes mellitus and cognitive impairment are 2 of the most common chronic conditions found in persons aged > or = 60 years. Clinical studies have shown a greater prevalence of global cognitive impairment, incidence of cognitive decline, and incidence of Alzheimer disease in patients with type 2 diabetes. To date, there have been no randomized trials of the effects of long-term glycemic control on cognitive function and structural brain changes in patients with type 2 diabetes. The primary aim of the Action to Control Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetes (ACCORD) Memory in Diabetes Study (ACCORD-MIND) is to test whether there is a difference in the rate of cognitive decline and structural brain change in patients with diabetes treated with standard-care guidelines compared with those treated with intensive-care guidelines. This comparison will be made in a subsample of 2,977 patients with diabetes participating in the ongoing ACCORD trial, a clinical trial sponsored by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI) with support from the National Institute on Aging (NIA). Data from this ACCORD substudy on the possible beneficial or adverse effects of intensive treatment on cognitive function will be obtained from a 30-minute test battery, administered at baseline and 20-month and 40-month visits. In addition, full-brain magnetic resonance imaging will be performed on 630 participants at baseline and at 40 months to assess the relation between the ACCORD treatments and structural brain changes. The general aim of ACCORD-MIND is to determine whether the intensive treatment of diabetes, a major risk factor for Alzheimer disease and vascular dementia, can reduce the early decline in cognitive function that could later evolve into more cognitively disabling conditions. This report presents the design, rationale, and methods of the ACCORD-MIND substudy.

  3. Screening for type 2 diabetes in a high-risk population: study design and feasibility of a population-based randomized controlled trial

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Klijs Bart

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background We describe the design and present the results of the first year of a population-based study of screening for type 2 diabetes in individuals at high risk of developing the disease. High risk is defined as having abdominal obesity. Methods Between 2006 and 2007, 79,142 inhabitants of two Dutch municipalities aged 40–74 years were approached to participate in screening. Eligible participants had a self-reported waist circumference of ≥80 cm for women and ≥94 cm for men, and no known pre-existing diabetes. Of the respondents (n = 20,578; response rate 26%, 16,135 were abdominally obese. In total, 10,609 individuals gave written informed consent for participation and were randomized into either the screening (n = 5305 or the control arm (n = 5304. Participants in the screening arm were invited to have their fasting plasma glucose (FPG measured and were referred to their general practitioner (GP if it was ≥6.1 mmol/L. In addition, blood lipids were determined in the screening arm, because abdominal obesity is often associated with cardiovascular risk factors. Participants in both arms received written healthy lifestyle information. Between-group differences were analyzed with Chi-square tests and logistic regression (categorical variables and unpaired t-tests (continuous variables. Results The screening attendance rate was 84.1%. Attending screening was associated with age at randomization (OR = 1.03, 95% CI 1.02-1.04, being married (OR = 1.57, 95% CI 1.33-1.83 and not-smoking currently (OR = 0.52, 95% CI 0.44-0.62. Of the individuals screened, 5.6% had hyperglycemia, and a further 11.6% had an estimated absolute cardiovascular disease risk of 5% or higher, according to the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation risk model. These participants were referred to their GP. Conclusions Self-reported home-assessed waist circumference could feasibly detect persons at high risk of hyperglycemia or

  4. Risk-based design of process plants with regard to domino effects and land use planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khakzad, Nima; Reniers, Genserik

    2015-12-15

    Land use planning (LUP) as an effective and crucial safety measure has widely been employed by safety experts and decision makers to mitigate off-site risks posed by major accidents. Accordingly, the concept of LUP in chemical plants has traditionally been considered from two perspectives: (i) land developments around existing chemical plants considering potential off-site risks posed by major accidents and (ii) development of existing chemical plants considering nearby land developments and the level of additional off-site risks the land developments would be exposed to. However, the attempts made to design chemical plants with regard to LUP requirements have been few, most of which have neglected the role of domino effects in risk analysis of major accidents. To overcome the limitations of previous work, first, we developed a Bayesian network methodology to calculate both on-site and off-site risks of major accidents while taking domino effects into account. Second, we combined the results of risk analysis with Analytic Hierarchical Process to design an optimal layout for which the levels of on-site and off-site risks would be minimum. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. A new stratified risk assessment tool for whiplash injuries developed from a prospective observational study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kasch, Helge; Kongsted, Alice; Qerama, Erisela

    2013-01-01

    within 72 h, examination prior to 10 days postinjury, capable of written/spoken Danish, without other injuries/fractures, pre-existing significant somatic/psychiatric disorder, drug/alcohol abuse and previous significant pain/headache). 688 (438 women and 250 men) participants were interviewed......OBJECTIVES: An initial stratification of acute whiplash patients into seven risk-strata in relation to 1-year work disability as primary outcome is presented. DESIGN: The design was an observational prospective study of risk factors embedded in a randomised controlled study. SETTING: Acute whiplash...... and number of sick-listing days were related (Kruskal-Wallis, p

  6. REDUCTION OF THE RISK IN PUBLIC PROCUREMENT BY USING DESIGN-BUILD AS A MEANS FOR SUITABLE CONSTRUCTING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jakub Blaťák

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Suitable and sustainable buildings have increased demands for design and for the transfer of design requirements to realization. That causes an increase of risk connected with the differences between planned and real parameters of the buildings. This article will outline the main theme comparison between DBB and DB projects concerning contractor’s risk management level. This comparative analysis explains, using the RIPRAN method, the hidden risks in each type of delivery method. The comparison identifies numerous contractual topics and risks included in both and gives deeper insight into risk management, both for the contracting party and also for public procurement. Applying risk analysis strategies and tools to the process will help decision-makers evaluate and select the suitable delivery method consistently and defensibly. This paper gives generic risk factors related to both project types. The results indicate risk factors with influence on the price, probability of occurrence and unfavourable impact on the project and help allocate risk level more properly in accordance with its high, middle or low probable impact. Public investment is a significant part of the public budget, the application of design-build can help with the reduction of corruption, and the public sector can benefit from the usage of DB projects to help eliminate the mistakes made by contracting authorities.

  7. Rationale and design of a multicenter prospective cohort study for the eVALuation and monitoring of HPV infections and relATEd cervical diseases in high-risk women (VALHIDATE study)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Orlando, Giovanna; Tanzi, Elisabetta; Chatenoud, Liliane; Gramegna, Maria; Rizzardini, Giuliano

    2012-01-01

    Pap screening, an effective method for cervical cancer prevention, is now supported by molecular human papillomavirus (HPV) testing. Recently commercialised preventive vaccines also provide new tools for the primary prevention of cervical cancer. To determine appropriate prevention strategies, the Health General Direction, Lombardy Region, funded a project that aims to characterize and monitor HPV infections and related cervical diseases in high-risk women. VALHIDATE is a 5-year multicentre open prospective cohort study. It will recruit 7000 consenting women aged 13–65 years to provide information about the local biomolecular epidemiology of HPV infection and cervical diseases in high-risk women recruited from nine clinical centres and one faith-based organisation. The study will estimate the overall and type-specific prevalence of HPV infection and cervical abnormalities. It also aims to compare standard Pap screening with biomolecular screening, and to assist in the design of targeted regional prevention programs directed specifically at high-risk groups. Three groups of high-risk women: 1000 HIV-infected women (aged 26–65 years), 1000 recent migrant women (aged 26–65 years) and 3000 young women (aged 13–26 years) and 1 control group: 2000 women (aged 26–45 years) attending a spontaneous screening program, will be recruited. Sample sizes will be revised after the first year. Adult participants will undergo conventional cervical cytology, HPV DNA screening and genotyping. Paediatric participants will undergo HPV DNA testing and genotyping of urine samples. HPV DNA, cytological abnormalities and HPV types will be analysed according to demographic, epidemiological, behavioural, and clinical data collected in an electronic case report form. Overall and stratified prevalences will be estimated to analyse the associations between HPV infection and selected characteristics. Logistic regression models will be used to estimate crude and adjusted odds ratios. Cox

  8. Probabilistic framework for product design optimization and risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keski-Rahkonen, J. K.

    2018-05-01

    Probabilistic methods have gradually gained ground within engineering practices but currently it is still the industry standard to use deterministic safety margin approaches to dimensioning components and qualitative methods to manage product risks. These methods are suitable for baseline design work but quantitative risk management and product reliability optimization require more advanced predictive approaches. Ample research has been published on how to predict failure probabilities for mechanical components and furthermore to optimize reliability through life cycle cost analysis. This paper reviews the literature for existing methods and tries to harness their best features and simplify the process to be applicable in practical engineering work. Recommended process applies Monte Carlo method on top of load-resistance models to estimate failure probabilities. Furthermore, it adds on existing literature by introducing a practical framework to use probabilistic models in quantitative risk management and product life cycle costs optimization. The main focus is on mechanical failure modes due to the well-developed methods used to predict these types of failures. However, the same framework can be applied on any type of failure mode as long as predictive models can be developed.

  9. A systematic review of epidemiologic studies assessing condom use and risk of syphilis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koss, Catherine A; Dunne, Eileen F; Warner, Lee

    2009-07-01

    Although systematic reviews of epidemiologic studies have been conducted for condom use and the risk of several sexually transmitted diseases, there have been no such reviews for condom use and syphilis. A systematic literature review of epidemiologic studies published from 1972 to 2008 was conducted to evaluate study methods and measures of association reported for condom use and risk of syphilis. All 12 included studies had significant methodologic limitations. Nine (75%) studies were cross-sectional. Although 11 (92%) studies assessed consistent condom use, no studies assessed correct use or condom use problems, nor did any document exposure to a partner infected with syphilis. Ten studies had insufficient information to distinguish prevalent from incident infections. Two studies that assessed both incident infection and consistent condom use suggested a reduced risk of syphilis with consistent condom use; 1 study was statistically significant. Significant methodologic limitations exist for all reviewed studies of syphilis and condom use. Among the 2 most rigorously designed studies, both suggested a reduced risk of syphilis with consistent condom use. Additional studies incorporating rigorous methods are needed to further assess the effect of condom use on risk of syphilis.

  10. Cardiovascular risk assessment in type 2 diabetes mellitus: comparison of the World Health Organization/International Society of Hypertension risk prediction charts versus UK Prospective Diabetes Study risk engine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herath, Herath M Meththananda; Weerarathna, Thilak Priyantha; Umesha, Dilini

    2015-01-01

    Patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) are at higher risk of developing cardiovascular diseases, and assessment of their cardiac risk is important for preventive strategies. The Ministry of Health of Sri Lanka has recommended World Health Organization/International Society of Hypertension (WHO/ISH) charts for cardiac risk assessment in individuals with T2DM. However, the most suitable cardiac risk assessment tool for Sri Lankans with T2DM has not been studied. This study was designed to evaluate the performance of two cardiac risk assessments tools; WHO/ISH charts and UK Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) risk engine. Cardiac risk assessments were done in 2,432 patients with T2DM attending a diabetes clinic in Southern Sri Lanka using the two risk assessment tools. Validity of two assessment tools was further assessed by their ability to recognize individuals with raised low-density lipoprotein (LDL) and raised diastolic blood pressure in a cohort of newly diagnosed T2DM patients (n=332). WHO/ISH charts identified 78.4% of subjects as low cardiac risk whereas the UKPDS risk engine categorized 52.3% as low cardiac risk (Pengine identified higher proportions of patients (28%) compared to WHO/ISH charts (7%). Approximately 6% of subjects were classified as low cardiac risk (20%. Agreement between the two tools was poor (κ value =0.144, Pengine. Risk assessment by both assessment tools demonstrated poor sensitivity in identifying those with treatable levels of LDL cholesterol and diastolic blood pressure.

  11. The design of reliability data bases, part II: competing risk and data compression

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cooke, Roger M.

    1996-01-01

    Models for analyzing dependent competing risk data are presented. These models are designed to represent interactions of critical failure and maintenance mechanisms responsible for intercepting incipient and degraded failures, and they are fashioned such that the (constant) critical failure rate is identifiable from dependent competing risk data. Uncertainty bounds for the critical failure rate which take modeling uncertainty and statistical fluctuations into account are given

  12. Rationale and design of INTERSTROKE: a global case-control study of risk factors for stroke

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    O'Donnell, M; Serpault, Damien Xavier; Diener, C

    2010-01-01

    Stroke is a major global health problem. It is the third leading cause of death and the leading cause of adult disability. INTERHEART, a global case-control study of acute myocardial infarction in 52 countries (29,972 participants), identified nine modifiable risk factors that accounted for >90% ...

  13. Risk analysis in radiosurgery treatments using risk matrices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delgado, J. M.; Sanchez Cayela, C.; Ramirez, M. L.; Perez, A.

    2011-01-01

    The aim of this study is the risk analysis process stereotactic single-dose radiotherapy and evaluation of those initiating events that lead to increased risk and a possible solution in the design of barriers.

  14. Sustainable and safe design of footwear integrating ecological footprint and risk criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herva, Marta; Alvarez, Antonio; Roca, Enrique

    2011-01-01

    Highlights: → The ecological footprint (EF) is a suitable screening indicator to assist the assessment of the sustainability of an ecodesign proposal. → The EF does not consider the risk derived from hazardous substances in its evaluation. → Environmental risk assessment (ERA) successfully complemented the evaluation of the EF providing safety criteria. → Options that exceeded the safety limits for Hazard Quotient and Cancer Risk where discarded, thus guaranteeing the protection of children. → Trade-offs among criteria could be established by the application of fuzzy logic techniques to derive an ecodesign index. - Abstract: The ecodesign of a product implies that different potential environmental impacts of diverse nature must be taken into account considering its whole life cycle, apart from the general design criteria (i.e. technical, functional, ergonomic, aesthetic or economic). In this sense, a sustainability assessment methodology, ecological footprint (EF), and environmental risk assessment (ERA), were combined for the first time to derive complementary criteria for the ecodesign of footwear. Four models of children's shoes were analyzed and compared. The synthetic shoes obtained a smaller EF (6.5 gm 2 ) when compared to the leather shoes (11.1 gm 2 ). However, high concentrations of hazardous substances were detected in the former, even making the Hazard Quotient (HQ) and the Cancer Risk (CR) exceed the recommended safety limits for one of the synthetic models analyzed. Risk criteria were prioritized in this case and, consequently, the design proposal was discarded. For the other cases, the perspective provided by the indicators of different nature was balanced to accomplish a fairest evaluation. The selection of fibers produced under sustainable criteria and the reduction of the materials consumption was recommended, since the area requirements would be minimized and the absence of hazardous compounds would ensure safety conditions during the

  15. Sustainable and safe design of footwear integrating ecological footprint and risk criteria

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Herva, Marta [Sustainable Processes and Products Engineering Group, Department of Chemical Engineering, University of Santiago de Compostela, Campus Vida, 15705 Santiago de Compostela (Spain); Alvarez, Antonio [Industrias de Diseno Textil, S.A., Edificio Inditex, Av. de la Diputacion s/n, Poligono de Sabon, 15142 Arteixo - A Coruna (Spain); Roca, Enrique, E-mail: enrique.roca@usc.es [Sustainable Processes and Products Engineering Group, Department of Chemical Engineering, University of Santiago de Compostela, Campus Vida, 15705 Santiago de Compostela (Spain)

    2011-09-15

    Highlights: {yields} The ecological footprint (EF) is a suitable screening indicator to assist the assessment of the sustainability of an ecodesign proposal. {yields} The EF does not consider the risk derived from hazardous substances in its evaluation. {yields} Environmental risk assessment (ERA) successfully complemented the evaluation of the EF providing safety criteria. {yields} Options that exceeded the safety limits for Hazard Quotient and Cancer Risk where discarded, thus guaranteeing the protection of children. {yields} Trade-offs among criteria could be established by the application of fuzzy logic techniques to derive an ecodesign index. - Abstract: The ecodesign of a product implies that different potential environmental impacts of diverse nature must be taken into account considering its whole life cycle, apart from the general design criteria (i.e. technical, functional, ergonomic, aesthetic or economic). In this sense, a sustainability assessment methodology, ecological footprint (EF), and environmental risk assessment (ERA), were combined for the first time to derive complementary criteria for the ecodesign of footwear. Four models of children's shoes were analyzed and compared. The synthetic shoes obtained a smaller EF (6.5 gm{sup 2}) when compared to the leather shoes (11.1 gm{sup 2}). However, high concentrations of hazardous substances were detected in the former, even making the Hazard Quotient (HQ) and the Cancer Risk (CR) exceed the recommended safety limits for one of the synthetic models analyzed. Risk criteria were prioritized in this case and, consequently, the design proposal was discarded. For the other cases, the perspective provided by the indicators of different nature was balanced to accomplish a fairest evaluation. The selection of fibers produced under sustainable criteria and the reduction of the materials consumption was recommended, since the area requirements would be minimized and the absence of hazardous compounds would

  16. Social Amplification of Risk and Crisis Communication Planing - Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanciugelu, I.; Frunzaru, V.; Armas, I.; Duntzer, A.; Stan, S.

    2012-04-01

    Risk management has become a dominant concern of public policy and the ability of government to anticipate the strength and focus of public concerns remains weak. The Social Amplification of Risk Framework (SARF) was designed to assist in this endeavor. It aims to facilitate a greater understanding of the social processes that can mediate between a hazard event and its consequences. SARF identifies categories of mediator/moderator that intervene between risk event and its consequences and suggests a causal and temporal sequence in which they act. Information flows first through various sources and then channels, triggering social stations of amplification, initiating individual station of amplification and precipitating behavioral reactions. The International Risk Governance Council Framework is an interdisciplinary and multilevel approach, linking risk management and risk assessment sphere through communication. This study aims to identify categories of mediator/moderator that intervene between the risk event and its consequences, using a survey on earthquake risk perception addressing population of Bucharest city. Romania has a unique seismic profile in Europe, being the country with the biggest surface affected in case of a serious earthquake. Considering the development of the urban area that took place in the last two decades and the growing number of inhabitants, Bucharest is the largest city in Romania and is exposed to extensive damages in case of an earthquake. The sociological survey has been conducted in December 2009 on a representative sample of the Bucharest population aged 18 and over (N=1376) using one stage sampling design. We used a stratified sample method shearing the investigated populations in six layers according to the six sectors of Bucharest. The respondents were selected using random digit dialling method (RDD) and the questionnaires were administered by research staff with computer assisted telephone interviewing method (CATI). The

  17. Cyber-Informed Engineering: The Need for a New Risk Informed and Design Methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Price, Joseph Daniel [Idaho National Laboratory; Anderson, Robert Stephen [Idaho National Laboratory

    2015-06-01

    Current engineering and risk management methodologies do not contain the foundational assumptions required to address the intelligent adversary’s capabilities in malevolent cyber attacks. Current methodologies focus on equipment failures or human error as initiating events for a hazard, while cyber attacks use the functionality of a trusted system to perform operations outside of the intended design and without the operator’s knowledge. These threats can by-pass or manipulate traditionally engineered safety barriers and present false information, invalidating the fundamental basis of a safety analysis. Cyber threats must be fundamentally analyzed from a completely new perspective where neither equipment nor human operation can be fully trusted. A new risk analysis and design methodology needs to be developed to address this rapidly evolving threatscape.

  18. Mania risk and creativity: a multi-method study of the role of motivation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruiter, Margina; Johnson, Sheri L

    2015-01-01

    Substantial literature has linked bipolar disorder and risk for bipolar disorder with creative accomplishment, but few multimodal studies of creativity are available, and little is known about mechanisms. We use a multi-method approach to test the association of bipolar risk with several creativity measures, including creative accomplishments, creative personality traits, and a laboratory index of insight. We also examined whether multiple facets of motivation accounted for the links of bipolar risk with creativity. Among 297 undergraduates, mania risk, as measured with the Hypomanic Personality Scale was related to lifetime creativity and creative personality, but not to performance on the insight task. Motivational traits appeared to mediate the links of mania risk with both lifetime creative accomplishments and self-rated creativity. The study relied on a cross-sectional design and a convenience sample. Future studies would benefit from exploring motivation as a positive aspect of manic vulnerability that may foster greater creativity. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. A new stratified risk assessment tool for whiplash injuries developed from a prospective observational study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasch, Helge; Kongsted, Alice; Qerama, Erisela; Bach, Flemming W; Bendix, Tom; Jensen, Troels Staehelin

    2013-01-01

    Objectives An initial stratification of acute whiplash patients into seven risk-strata in relation to 1-year work disability as primary outcome is presented. Design The design was an observational prospective study of risk factors embedded in a randomised controlled study. Setting Acute whiplash patients from units, general practitioners in four Danish counties were referred to two research centres. Participants During a 2-year inclusion period, acute consecutive whiplash-injured (age 18–70 years, rear-end or frontal-end car accident and WAD (whiplash-associated disorders) grades I–III, symptoms within 72 h, examination prior to 10 days postinjury, capable of written/spoken Danish, without other injuries/fractures, pre-existing significant somatic/psychiatric disorder, drug/alcohol abuse and previous significant pain/headache). 688 (438 women and 250 men) participants were interviewed and examined by a study nurse after 5 days; 605 were completed after 1 year. A risk score which included items of initial neck pain/headache intensity, a number of non-painful complaints and active neck mobility was applied. The primary outcome parameter was 1-year work disability. Results The risk score and number of sick-listing days were related (Kruskal-Wallis, pwhiplash. Neck-mobility was a strong predictor in this study; however, it was a more inconsistent predictor in other studies. Conclusions Application of the risk assessment score and use of the risk strata system may be beneficial in future studies and may be considered as a valuable tool to assess return-to-work following injuries; however, further studies are needed. PMID:23370009

  20. Cardiorespiratory fitness, BMI, and risk of hypertension: the HYPGENE study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rankinen, Tuomo; Church, Timothy S; Rice, Treva; Bouchard, Claude; Blair, Steven N

    2007-10-01

    Cardiorespiratory fitness and regular physical activity are inversely associated with the risk of hypertension, and exercise training has been shown to lower elevated blood pressure (BP). Genetic factors contribute significantly to the interindividual differences in endurance training-induced changes in BP. However, similar data on the genotype-by-fitness interactions on the risk of hypertension are scarce. In 2000, we started a systematic collection of blood samples from all consenting subjects of the Aerobics Center Longitudinal Study (ACLS) with a goal to generate a resource for studies addressing genotype-by-fitness interaction effects on various health-related end points. Here, we introduce the rationale and design of the first study based on the ACLS genetics resource focusing on hypertension as the health outcome (HYPGENE study), and we report the associations of cardiorespiratory fitness and body mass index (BMI) with the risk of hypertension. All HYPGENE subjects (N = 1234) were healthy and normotensive at their first clinic visit. Cases (N = 629) developed hypertension during the follow-up period (mean 8.7 yr), whereas controls (N = 605) remained normotensive (mean follow-up 10.1 yr). Cardiorespiratory fitness was the strongest predictor of the hypertension risk, with each maximal metabolic equivalent unit being associated with a 19% lower risk (95% confidence interval [95% CI], 12-24%). Each baseline BMI unit was associated with a 9% higher hypertension risk (95% CI, 4-13%). However, the association of BMI was greatly attenuated (odds ratio 1.04 [95% CI, 0.99-1.09]) when fitness also was included in the model. The HYPGENE study will provide an excellent resource to address hypotheses regarding the genetic basis of hypertension while taking cardiorespiratory fitness level into account.

  1. Work and Risk: Perceptions of Nuclear-Power Personnel. a Study in Grounded Theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fields, Claire Dewitt

    1992-01-01

    The utility industry has devoted time and money to assure personnel within nuclear power plants are informed about occupational risks. Radiation-protection training programs are designed to present information to employees about occupational radiation and protective procedures. Work -related concerns are known to create stress, affect the morale of the workforce, influence collective bargaining, and increase compensation claims. This study was designed to determine perceptions of risk among employees of nuclear power plants and identify variables that influence these perceptions. Four power plants were included in the study, one in Canada and three in the United States. Data were generated through participant observations and interviews of 350 participants during a period of 3 weeks at each plant. Data were gathered and analyzed following procedures advanced by Grounded Theory, a naturalistic methodology used in this study. Training content, information, and communication materials were additional sources of data. Findings indicated employees believed health and safety risks existed within the work environment. Perceptions of risk were influenced by training quality, the work environment, nuclear myths and images of the general public, and fears of family members. Among the three groups of workers, administration personnel, security personnel, and radiation workers, the latter identified a larger number of risks. Workers perceived radiation risks, shift work, and steam pipe ruptures as high-level concerns. Experiencing stress, making mistakes, and fear of sabotage were concerns shared among all employee groups at various levels of concern. Strategies developed by employees were used to control risk. Strategies included teamwork, humor, monitoring, avoidance, reframing, and activism. When risks were perceived as uncontrollable, the employee left the plant. A coping strategy of transferring concerns about radiological risks to nonradiological risks were uncovered in

  2. [Concern points and considerations for pharmacodynamic study design of new traditional Chinese medicines].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Fang-Hua

    2014-03-01

    Pharmacodynamic (PD) studies play an important role in research and development of new traditonal Chinese medicines (TCMs). Phamacologic and toxicologic studies that aim to research drug ability can provide supporting data for the clinical trials and reduce the risk of clinical trials. In recent years, PD studies in TCMs are developing and progressing, but there are still some problems affecting the value of PD studies in the development of new TCMs. The value of PD studies depends on scientific and rational study design. This article summaries some defects in PD study design of new TCMs that are common in the application data, including defects in study type, testing targets, dosing, duration of administration, control group, testing time. This article also discusses some points of concern and specific requirements for PD study design of new TCMs.

  3. Interim Design Report for the International Design Study for a Neutrino Factory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Choubey, S.; Gandhi, R.; Goswami, S.; /Harish-Chandra Res. Inst.; Berg, J.S.; Fernow, R.; Gallardo, J.C.; Gupta, R.; Kirk, H.; Simos, N.; Souchlas, N.; /Brookhaven; Ellis, M.; /Brunel U. /CERN /Durham U., IPPP /Fermilab /Geneva U. /Glasgow U. /Heidelberg, Max Planck Inst. /Imperial Coll., London /Jefferson Lab /Saha Inst.

    2011-10-01

    The starting point for the International Design Study for the Neutrino Factory (the IDS-NF) was the output of the earlier International Scoping Study for a future Neutrino Factory and super-beam facility (the ISS). The accelerator facility described in section 2 incorporates the improvements that have been derived from the substantial amount of work carried out within the Accelerator Working Group. Highlights of these improvements include: (1) Initial concepts for the implementation of the proton driver at each of the three example sites, CERN, FNAL, and RAL; (2) Detailed studies of the energy deposition in the target area; (3) A reduction in the length of the muon beam phase-rotation and bunching systems; (4) Detailed analyses of the impact of the risk that stray magnetic field in the accelerating cavities in the ionization cooling channel will reduce the maximum operating gradient. Several alternative ionization-cooling lattices have been developed as fallback options to mitigate this technical risk; (5) Studies of particle loss in the muon front-end and the development of strategies to mitigate the deleterious effects of such losses; (6) The development of more complete designs for the muon linac and re-circulating linacs; (7) The development of a design for the muon FFAG that incorporates insertions for injection and extraction; and (8) Detailed studies of diagnostics in the decay ring. Other sub-systems have undergone a more 'incremental' evolution; an indication that the design of the Neutrino Factory has achieved a degree of maturity. The design of the neutrino detectors described in section 3 has been optimized and the Detector Working Group has made substantial improvements to the simulation and analysis of the Magnetized Iron Neutrino Detector (MIND) resulting in an improvement in the overall neutrino-detection efficiency and a reduction in the neutrino-energy threshold. In addition, initial consideration of the engineering of the MIND has

  4. Presenting a Framework for Evaluating and Prioritizing Risk of Information Technology Outsourcing: Perspective of Experts in Information Systems Design

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    abbas Keramati

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Information technology outsourcing projects have advantages including: reduced costs, improved service quality, creation of competitive advantage, etc. When these projects are being outsourced, lack of attention to their risks causes the lost of anticipated benefits and contributes to failure. As for the growing trend of information technology outsourcing projects in Iran, the purpose of this study is to identify the risks of information technology outsourcing projects, evaluate and prioritize them based on the perspective of experts in information systems design. For achieving these goals, key articles were reviewed and comprehensive list of 12 risk factors were identified. For prioritizing, a Fuzzy Analytical Network Process (F-ANP structure has been provided and the risk factors were laid in it. Then, by using a questionnaire, 13 experts' viewpoints were collected. The results show that the factor of "supplier" and the sub-factor of "Lack of skills of supplier in IT operations" are the most important factors for success and failure of information technology outsourcing projects in the perspective of experts in information systems design.

  5. Developing a quality by design approach to model tablet dissolution testing: an industrial case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yekpe, Ketsia; Abatzoglou, Nicolas; Bataille, Bernard; Gosselin, Ryan; Sharkawi, Tahmer; Simard, Jean-Sébastien; Cournoyer, Antoine

    2017-11-02

    This study applied the concept of Quality by Design (QbD) to tablet dissolution. Its goal was to propose a quality control strategy to model dissolution testing of solid oral dose products according to International Conference on Harmonization guidelines. The methodology involved the following three steps: (1) a risk analysis to identify the material- and process-related parameters impacting the critical quality attributes of dissolution testing, (2) an experimental design to evaluate the influence of design factors (attributes and parameters selected by risk analysis) on dissolution testing, and (3) an investigation of the relationship between design factors and dissolution profiles. Results show that (a) in the case studied, the two parameters impacting dissolution kinetics are active pharmaceutical ingredient particle size distributions and tablet hardness and (b) these two parameters could be monitored with PAT tools to predict dissolution profiles. Moreover, based on the results obtained, modeling dissolution is possible. The practicality and effectiveness of the QbD approach were demonstrated through this industrial case study. Implementing such an approach systematically in industrial pharmaceutical production would reduce the need for tablet dissolution testing.

  6. Longitudinal Andhra Pradesh Eye Disease Study: rationale, study design and research methodology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khanna, Rohit C; Murthy, Gudlavalleti Vs; Marmamula, Srinivas; Mettla, Asha Latha; Giridhar, Pyda; Banerjee, Seema; Shekhar, Konegari; Chakrabarti, Subhabrata; Gilbert, Clare; Rao, Gullapalli N

    2016-03-01

    The rationale, objectives, study design and procedures for the longitudinal Andhra Pradesh Eye Disease Study are described. A longitudinal cohort study was carried out. Participants include surviving cohort from the rural component of Andhra Pradesh Eye Disease Study. During 1996-2000, Andhra Pradesh Eye Disease Survey was conducted in three rural (n = 7771) and one urban (n = 2522) areas (now called Andhra Pradesh Eye Disease Study 1). In 2009-2010, a feasibility exercise (Andhra Pradesh Eye Disease Study 2) for a longitudinal study (Andhra Pradesh Eye Disease Study 3) was undertaken in the rural clusters only, as urban clusters no longer existed. In Andhra Pradesh Eye Disease Study 3, a detailed interview will be carried out to collect data on sociodemographic factors, ocular and systemic history, risk factors, visual function, knowledge of eye diseases and barriers to accessing services. All participants will also undergo a comprehensive eye examination including photography of lens, optic disc and retina, Optic Coherence Tomography of the posterior segment, anthropometry, blood pressure and frailty measures. Measures include estimates of the incidence of visual impairment and age-related eye disease (lens opacities, glaucoma and age-related macular degeneration) and the progression of eye disease (lens opacities and myopia) and associated risk factors. Of the 7771 respondents examined in rural areas in Andhra Pradesh Eye Disease Study 1, 5447 (70.1%) participants were traced in Andhra Pradesh Eye Disease Study 2. These participants will be re-examined. Andhra Pradesh Eye Disease Study 3 will provide data on the incidence and progression of visual impairment and major eye diseases and their associated risk factors in India. The study will provide further evidence to aid planning eye care services. © 2015 Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Ophthalmologists.

  7. Quantifying pathogen risks associated with potable reuse: A risk assessment case study for Cryptosporidium.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amoueyan, Erfaneh; Ahmad, Sajjad; Eisenberg, Joseph N S; Pecson, Brian; Gerrity, Daniel

    2017-08-01

    This study evaluated the reliability and equivalency of three different potable reuse paradigms: (1) surface water augmentation via de facto reuse with conventional wastewater treatment; (2) surface water augmentation via planned indirect potable reuse (IPR) with ultrafiltration, pre-ozone, biological activated carbon (BAC), and post-ozone; and (3) direct potable reuse (DPR) with ultrafiltration, ozone, BAC, and UV disinfection. A quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) was performed to (1) quantify the risk of infection from Cryptosporidium oocysts; (2) compare the risks associated with different potable reuse systems under optimal and sub-optimal conditions; and (3) identify critical model/operational parameters based on sensitivity analyses. The annual risks of infection associated with the de facto and planned IPR systems were generally consistent with those of conventional drinking water systems [mean of (9.4 ± 0.3) × 10 -5 to (4.5 ± 0.1) × 10 -4 ], while DPR was clearly superior [mean of (6.1 ± 67) × 10 -9 during sub-optimal operation]. Because the advanced treatment train in the planned IPR system was highly effective in reducing Cryptosporidium concentrations, the associated risks were generally dominated by the pathogen loading already present in the surface water. As a result, risks generally decreased with higher recycled water contributions (RWCs). Advanced treatment failures were generally inconsequential either due to the robustness of the advanced treatment train (i.e., DPR) or resiliency provided by the environmental buffer (i.e., planned IPR). Storage time in the environmental buffer was important for the de facto reuse system, and the model indicated a critical storage time of approximately 105 days. Storage times shorter than the critical value resulted in significant increases in risk. The conclusions from this study can be used to inform regulatory decision making and aid in the development of design or operational

  8. Risk communication. Risk studies in social science; Risk communication. Risk kenkyu eno shakai kagakuteki approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Asami, M. [Keio Univ., Tokyo (Japan)

    1995-11-05

    It is recently, that is, in and after the 1980s that socio-scientific approaches began to be made to studies on `risk`. It started to be made clear that the progress of the scientific technology does not necessarily bring about good news to man, and obvious estrangement has begun to appear between scientific evaluation and social evaluation of risk. The subject of risk communication (RC) study is to tackle a proposition whether the estrangement will continue to exist as estrangement or the estrangement can be made smaller by any means. This paper explains the recent trend of the study. For example, as for how each individual thinks about risk, that is, the risk perception, a new framework is trially being constructed by introduction of the quantitative method using psychometrics. A duty of RC is to serve to bridge the gap between scientific technology and society which are controlled by values which are incompatible with each other. Therefore, RC will be more and more important. 15 refs., 1 fig., 2 tabs.

  9. Cigarette pack design and perceptions of risk among UK adults and youth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammond, David; Dockrell, Martin; Arnott, Deborah; Lee, Alex; McNeill, Ann

    2009-12-01

    It is illegal in the EU for tobacco packaging to suggest that some cigarettes are safer than others. This study examined consumer perceptions of cigarette packs in the UK, including perceptions of 'plain packaging', in which colour and other design elements are removed, whilst retaining the brand name. 516 adult smokers and 806 youth aged 11-17 participated in an online survey. Participants were asked to compare pairs of cigarette packs on five measures: taste, tar delivery, health risk, attractiveness and either ease of quitting (adult smokers) or brand they would choose if trying smoking (youth). Adults and youth were significantly more likely to rate packs with the terms 'smooth', 'silver' and 'gold' as lower tar, lower health risk and either easier to quit smoking (adults) or their choice of pack if trying smoking (youth). For example, more than half of adults and youth reported that brands labelled as 'smooth' were less harmful compared with the 'regular' variety. The colour of packs was also associated with perceptions of risk and brand appeal: compared with Marlboro packs with a red logo, Marlboro packs with a gold logo were rated as lower health risk by 53% and easier to quit by 31% of adult smokers. Plain packs significantly reduced false beliefs about health risk and ease of quitting, and were rated as significantly less attractive and appealing to youth for trying smoking. Current regulations have failed to remove potentially misleading information from tobacco packaging. Removing colours from packs (plain packaging), as well as terms such as 'smooth' 'gold' and 'silver' would significantly reduce false beliefs and increase compliance with existing legislation.

  10. Preeclampsia and subsequent risk of cancer: update from the Jerusalem Perinatal Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    CALDERON-MARGALIT, R.; FRIEDLANDER, Y.; YANETZ, R.; DEUTSCH, L.; PERRIN, MC; KLEINHAUS, K.; TIRAM, E.; HARLAP, S.; PALTIEL, O.

    2009-01-01

    Objectives To study the association between preeclampsia and cancer incidence. Study Design The Jerusalem Perinatal Study is a population-based cohort of all births to 41,206 residents of Western Jerusalem in 1964-76. Cancer incidence to 2004 was assessed by linkage of the cohort with the Israel Cancer Registry. Cox’s proportional hazards models were constructed to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) for cancer among women who had had preeclampsia. Results Preeclampsia was associated with a 1.23-fold increased risk of cancer at all sites, a 37% increased risk of breast cancer, and more than a doubling of ovarian cancer risk. Analysis by morphology yielded significantly increased risks for malignancies classed as cystic mucinous and serous (RR:1.96, 95% Confidence interval:1.00-3.83), and for ductal, lobular and medullary carcinomas (1.40, 1.07-1.83). No differential association was observed by sex of offspring. Conclusions Our study suggests that the previously-described protective effect of preeclampsia on cancer is not universal. PMID:18822400

  11. A completely new design and regulatory process - A risk-based approach for new nuclear power plants. Annex 17

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ritterbusch, S.E.

    2002-01-01

    In the de-regulated electric power market place that is developing in the USA, competition from alternative electric power sources has provided significant downward pressure on the costs of new construction projects. Studies by the Electric Power Research Institute have shown that, in the USA, the capital cost of new nuclear plants must be decreased by at least 35% to 40% relative to the cost of Advanced Light Water Reactors designed in the early 1990s in order to be competitive with capital costs of gas-fired electric power plants. The underlying reasons for the high capital costs estimated for some nuclear plants are (1) long construction times, (2) the high level of 'defense-in-depth' or safety margin, included throughout the design and licensing process, and (3) the use of out-dated design methods and information. Probabilistic Safety Assessments are being used to develop a more accurate assessment of real plant risk and to provide relief if it can be demonstrated that plant equipment is not providing a significant contribution to plant safety. Westinghouse addressed some of these cost drivers in the development of the AP-600 passive plant design. However, because of relatively inexpensive natural gas plant alternative, we need to reduce the costs even further. Therefore, the AP-600 design is now being up-rated to a 1000 MWe design, AP-1000. The development of AP1000 is described in another paper being presented at this meeting. Westinghouse is also managing a project, sponsored by the US Department of Energy, which is aimed at developing an all-new 'risk-based' approach to design and regulation. Methodologies being developed use risk-based information to the extent practical and 'defense-in-depth' only when necessary to address uncertainties in models and equipment performance. Early results, summarized in this paper, include (1) the initial framework for a new design and regulatory process and (2) a sample design analysis which shows that the Emergency Core

  12. Lycopene and risk of cardiovascular diseases: A meta-analysis of observational studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Bo; Liu, Kai; Gao, Yuan; Zhao, Lu; Fang, Hui; Li, Yusheng; Pei, Lulu; Xu, Yuming

    2017-09-01

    The aim of current meta-analysis was to investigate the relation between lycopene and risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVD). Studies concerning about the association between lycopene and risk of CVD were searched on Pubmed, Embase, and Web of Science from inception to October 2016. A total of 14 eligible studies were identified. A significantly inverse association with a pooled risk ratio (RR) of 0.83 (95% CI: 0.76-0.90) was shown between lycopene exposure and risk of CVD. Findings were similar restricting to dietary studies (RR = 0.87, 95% CI = 0.79-0.96) and biomarker studies (RR = 0.74, 95% CI = 0. 62-0.87).Dietary lycopene intake was statistically significant for coronary heart disease (CHD) (RR: 0.87; 95% CI: 0.76-0.98) and stroke (RR: 0.83; 95% CI: 0.69-0.96).The pooled risk estimate was generally similar for lycopene biomarker concentrations, but the association was only statistically significant for stroke (RR: 0.65; 95% CI: 0.42-0.87). Subgroup analyses showed that retrospective and low quality studies were statistically significant sources of heterogeneity. Higher lycopene exposure is inversely associated with a lower risk of CVD. Further well-designed randomized clinical trials are required to assess the role of lycopene on CVD. © 2017 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  13. Studies of cancer risk among Chernobyl liquidators: materials and methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kesminiene, A.; Cardis, E.; Tenet, V.; Ivanov, V.K.; Kurtinaitis, J.; Malakhova, I.; Stengrevics, A.; Tekkel, M.

    2002-01-01

    The current paper presents the methods and design of two case-control studies among Chernobyl liquidators - one of leukaemia and non-Hodgkin lymphoma, the other of thyroid cancer risk - carried out in Belarus, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Russia. The specific objective of these studies is to estimate the radiation induced risk of these diseases among liquidators of the Chernobyl accident, and, in particular, to study the effect of exposure protraction and radiation type on the risk of radiation induced cancer in the low-to-medium- (0-500 mSv) radiation dose range. The study population consists of the approximately 10,000 Baltic, 40,000 Belarus and 51,000 Russian liquidators who worked in the 30 km zone in 1986-1987, and who were registered in the Chernobyl registry of these countries. The studies included cases diagnosed in 1993-1998 for all countries but Belarus, where the study period was extended until 2000. Four controls were selected in each country from the national cohort for each case, matched on age, gender and region of residence. Information on study subjects was obtained through face-to-face interview using a standardised questionnaire with questions on demographic factors, time, place and conditions of work as a liquidator and potential risk and confounding factors for the tumours of interest. Overall, 136 cases and 595 controls after receiving their consent were included in the studies. A method of analytical dose reconstruction has been developed, validated and applied to the estimation of doses and related uncertainties for all the subjects in the study. Dose-response analyses are underway and results are likely to have important implications to assess the adequacy of existing protection standards, which are based on risk estimates derived from analyses of the mortality of atomic bomb survivors and other high dose studies. (author)

  14. Designing satisfaction studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Kai; Eskildsen, Jacob Kjær

    2007-01-01

    In the effect sampling method, presentation of researcher, the intro text, the order of questions in the questionnaire along with the number of categories in the rating scale is tested in relation to the design of satisfaction studies. Based on the analyses specific recommendations for designing...... satisfaction studies are given....

  15. The BioImage Study: novel approaches to risk assessment in the primary prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease--study design and objectives

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Muntendam, Pieter; McCall, Carol; Sanz, Javier

    2010-01-01

    characteristics on file with Humana Inc, a total of 7,687 men 55 to 80 years of age and women 60 to 80 years of age without evidence of atherothrombotic disease but presumed to be at risk for near-term atherothrombotic events were enrolled between January 2008 and June 2009. Those who met the prespecified......Image Study will help identify those patients with subclinical atherosclerosis who are at risk for near-term atherothrombotic events and enable a more personalized management of care....

  16. Visual Design Principles: An Empirical Study of Design Lore

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kimball, Miles A.

    2013-01-01

    Many books, designers, and design educators talk about visual design principles such as balance, contrast, and alignment, but with little consistency. This study uses empirical methods to explore the lore surrounding design principles. The study took the form of two stages: a quantitative literature review to determine what design principles are…

  17. Effects of Disruption Risks on Biorefinery Location Design

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yun Bai

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available While ever-growing bio-ethanol production poses considerable challenges to the bioenergy supply chain, the risk of refinery operation disruptions further compromises the efficiency and reliability of the energy supply system. This paper applies discrete and continuous reliable facility location models to the design of reliable bio-ethanol supply chains so that the system can hedge against potential operational disruptions. The discrete model is shown to be suitable for obtaining the exact optimality for small or moderate instances, while the continuous model has superior computational tractability for large-scale applications. The impacts of both site-independent and dependent disruptions (i.e., due to flooding are analyzed in empirical case study for the State of Illinois (one of the main biomass supply states in the U.S.. The reliable solution is compared with a deterministic solution under the same setting. It is found that refinery disruptions, especially those site-dependent ones, affect both optimal refinery deployment and the supply chain cost. Sensitivity analysis is also conducted to show how refinery failure probability and fixed cost (for building biorefineries affect optimal supply chain configuration and the total expected system cost.

  18. Use of Insulin and Insulin Analogs and Risk of Cancer — Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Observational Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karlstad, Øystein; Starup-Linde, Jacob; Vestergaard, Peter; Hjellvik, Vidar; T. Bazelier, Marloes; K. Schmidt, Marjanka; Andersen, Morten; Auvinen, Anssi; Haukka, Jari; Furu, Kari; de Vries, Frank; L. de Bruin, Marie

    2014-01-01

    Background: An association of insulin use and risk of cancer has been reported but evidence is conflicting and methodological issues have been identified. Objective: To summarize results regarding insulin use and cancer risk by a systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort and case-control studies examining risk of cancer associated with insulin use in patients with diabetes. Data Sources: Systematic literature search in 5 databases: PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, Scopus and Cochrane Library. Study Eligibility Criteria (PICOS): Population: diabetes patients. Exposure: Users of any exogenous insulin. Comparison: Diabetes patients with or without use of antidiabetic drugs. Outcome: Any incident cancer. Study Design: Cohort and case-control studies. Results: 42 eligible studies examined risk of any cancer and 27 site-specific cancers. Results of individual studies were heterogeneous. Meta-analyses were significant for: Insulin vs No Insulin: Increased risk for pancreas, liver, kidney, stomach and respiratory cancer, decreased risk for prostate cancer. Insulin vs Non-Insulin Antidiabetics: Increased risk for any, pancreatic and colorectal cancer. Glargine vs Non-Glargine Insulin: Increased risk for breast cancer, decreased risk for colon cancer. Limitations: Few studies available for most cancer sites and exposure contrasts, and few assess effect of dose and duration of exposure. Methodological issues in several studies. Availability of confounders. Conclusions: Insulin use was associated with risk of cancer at several sites. Cautious interpretation of results is warranted as methodological issues and limitations in several of the included studies have been identified. Choice of study design may have a profound effect on estimated cancer risk. PMID:24215311

  19. A study on the social risk-judgment for nuclear energy : development of the risk-judgment model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, Young Sung

    1999-02-01

    Despite the fact that nuclear power has become a major energy source in Korea, the public attitude toward it shows a typical NIMBY (Not In My Back Yard) phenomenon. In order for designing an effective policy, it is essential to obtain reliable knowledge about how the public perceive and judge the risks and benefits of nuclear energy. A public risk judgment model was developed through both constructing the perception variables by Latent Class Analysis and quantifying the relationship between acceptance and perception variables by Logistic Regression. Two independent sets of nation-wide survey data provided the parameter estimates and the validity of the model. As a result, the perception level of risks and benefits could be quantified and National Acceptance and Local Acceptance could be modeled by the perception variables. While lay people judge the risks and benefits through the process of perception, experts have relevant knowledge and information about nuclear energy and depend on the scientific facts or inferences in judgment process. Thus their opinion and consensus should be examined and taken into account during policy formulation process. For the purpose of eliciting expert's opinion, the web-based on-line survey system (eBOSS) was developed. The Web provides an easy graphical user interface that enables users to complete the survey at their own convenience and answer questions in a low-overhead fashion. Using the survey system, experts' views were tallied, analyzed and compared with the public. While there were differences in the perception of risks as well as benefits between the public and expert, similar preferences on alternative policies appeared. This study is one of the first attempts to statistically examine the nexus between the perception and the acceptance of nuclear energy. The methodologies may give the basis for investigating the structure of the public attitude on new technologies and the results can be useful to design public

  20. Sustainable and safe design of footwear integrating ecological footprint and risk criteria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herva, Marta; Álvarez, Antonio; Roca, Enrique

    2011-09-15

    The ecodesign of a product implies that different potential environmental impacts of diverse nature must be taken into account considering its whole life cycle, apart from the general design criteria (i.e. technical, functional, ergonomic, aesthetic or economic). In this sense, a sustainability assessment methodology, ecological footprint (EF), and environmental risk assessment (ERA), were combined for the first time to derive complementary criteria for the ecodesign of footwear. Four models of children's shoes were analyzed and compared. The synthetic shoes obtained a smaller EF (6.5 gm(2)) when compared to the leather shoes (11.1 gm(2)). However, high concentrations of hazardous substances were detected in the former, even making the Hazard Quotient (HQ) and the Cancer Risk (CR) exceed the recommended safety limits for one of the synthetic models analyzed. Risk criteria were prioritized in this case and, consequently, the design proposal was discarded. For the other cases, the perspective provided by the indicators of different nature was balanced to accomplish a fairest evaluation. The selection of fibers produced under sustainable criteria and the reduction of the materials consumption was recommended, since the area requirements would be minimized and the absence of hazardous compounds would ensure safety conditions during the use stage. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Quantifying the benefits of achieving or maintaining long-term low risk profile for cardiovascular disease : The doetinchem cohort study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hulsegge, Gerben; Smit, Henriëtte A.; Van Der Schouw, Yvonne T.; Daviglus, Martha L.; Verschuren, W. M Monique

    2015-01-01

    Background: Studies investigating the relation between risk profiles and cardiovascular disease have measured risk at baseline only. We investigated maintenance and changes of risk profiles over time and their potential impact on incident cardiovascular disease. Design: Population-based cohort

  2. Quantifying the benefits of achieving or maintaining long-term low risk profile for cardiovascular disease: The Doetinchem Cohort Study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hulsegge, G.; Smit, H.A.; van der Schouw, Y.T.; Daviglus, M.L.; Verschuren, W.M.

    2015-01-01

    Background: Studies investigating the relation between risk profiles and cardiovascular disease have measured risk at baseline only. We investigated maintenance and changes of risk profiles over time and their potential impact on incident cardiovascular disease. Design: Population-based cohort

  3. Variation in choice of study design: findings from the Epidemiology Design Decision Inventory and Evaluation (EDDIE) survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stang, Paul E; Ryan, Patrick B; Overhage, J Marc; Schuemie, Martijn J; Hartzema, Abraham G; Welebob, Emily

    2013-10-01

    Researchers using observational data to understand drug effects must make a number of analytic design choices that suit the characteristics of the data and the subject of the study. Review of the published literature suggests that there is a lack of consistency even when addressing the same research question in the same database. To characterize the degree of similarity or difference in the method and analysis choices made by observational database research experts when presented with research study scenarios. On-line survey using research scenarios on drug-effect studies to capture method selection and analysis choices that follow a dependency branching based on response to key questions. Voluntary participants experienced in epidemiological study design solicited for participation through registration on the Observational Medical Outcomes Partnership website, membership in particular professional organizations, or links in relevant newsletters. Description (proportion) of respondents selecting particular methods and making specific analysis choices based on individual drug-outcome scenario pairs. The number of questions/decisions differed based on stem questions of study design, time-at-risk, outcome definition, and comparator. There is little consistency across scenarios, by drug or by outcome of interest, in the decisions made for design and analyses in scenarios using large healthcare databases. The most consistent choice was the cohort study design but variability in the other critical decisions was common. There is great variation among epidemiologists in the design and analytical choices that they make when implementing analyses in observational healthcare databases. These findings confirm that it will be important to generate empiric evidence to inform these decisions and to promote a better understanding of the impact of standardization on research implementation.

  4. Rationale and design of a multicenter echocardiographic study to assess the relationship between cardiac structure and function and heart failure risk in a biracial cohort of community-dwelling elderly persons: the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shah, Amil M; Cheng, Susan; Skali, Hicham; Wu, Justina; Mangion, Judy R; Kitzman, Dalane; Matsushita, Kunihiro; Konety, Suma; Butler, Kenneth R; Fox, Ervin R; Cook, Nakela; Ni, Hanyu; Coresh, Josef; Mosley, Thomas H; Heiss, Gerardo; Folsom, Aaron R; Solomon, Scott D

    2014-01-01

    Heart failure is an important public health concern, particularly among persons>65 years of age. Women and blacks are critically understudied populations that carry a sizeable portion of the heart failure burden. Limited normative and prognostic data exist on measures of cardiac structure, diastolic function, and novel measures of systolic deformation in older adults living in the community. The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study is a large, predominantly biracial, National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute-sponsored epidemiological cohort study. Between 2011 and 2013, ≈6000 surviving participants, now in their seventh to ninth decade of life, are expected to return for a fifth study visit during which comprehensive 2-dimensional, Doppler, tissue Doppler, and speckle-tracking echocardiography will be performed uniformly in all cohort clinic visit participants. The following objectives will be addressed: (1) to characterize cardiac structural and functional abnormalities among the elderly and to determine how they differ by sex and race/ethnicity, (2) to determine the relationship between ventricular and vascular abnormalities, and (3) to prospectively examine the extent to which these noninvasive measures associate with incident heart failure. We describe the design, imaging acquisition and analysis methods, and quality assurance metrics for echocardiography in visit 5 of the ARIC cohort. A better understanding of the differences in cardiac structure and function through the spectrum of heart failure stages in elderly persons generally, and between sexes and racial/ethnic groups specifically, will deepen our understanding of the pathophysiology driving heart failure progression in these at-risk populations and may inform novel prevention or therapeutic strategies.

  5. Hypertension and diabetes in Africa: design and implementation of a large population-based study of burden and risk factors in rural and urban Malawi

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amelia Catharine Crampin

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The emerging burden of cardiovascular disease and diabetes in sub-Saharan Africa threatens the gains made in health by the major international effort to combat infectious diseases. There are few data on distribution of risk factors and outcomes in the region to inform an effective public health response. A comprehensive research programme is being developed aimed at accurately documenting the burden and drivers of NCDs in urban and rural Malawi; to design and test intervention strategies. The programme includes population surveys of all people aged 18 years and above, linking individuals with newly diagnosed hypertension and diabetes to healthcare and supporting clinical services. The successes, challenges and lessons learnt from the programme to date are discussed. Results Over 20,000 adults have been recruited in rural Karonga and urban Lilongwe. The urban population is significantly younger and wealthier than the rural population. Employed urban individuals, particularly males, give particular recruitment challenges; male participation rates were 80.3 % in the rural population and 43.6 % in urban, whilst female rates were 93.6 and 75.6 %, respectively. The study is generating high quality data on hypertension, diabetes, lipid abnormalities and risk factors. Conclusions It is feasible to develop large scale studies that can reliably inform the public health approach to diabetes, cardiovascular disease and other NCDs in Sub-Saharan Africa. It is essential for studies to capture both rural and urban populations to address disparities in risk factors, including age structure. Innovative approaches are needed to address the specific challenge of recruiting employed urban males.

  6. Risk-informed assessment of regulatory and design requirements for future nuclear power plants. Annual report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2000-01-01

    OAK B188 Risk-informed assessment of regulatory and design requirements for future nuclear power plants. Annual report. The overall goal of this research project is to support innovation in new nuclear power plant designs. This project is examining the implications, for future reactors and future safety regulation, of utilizing a new risk-informed regulatory system as a replacement for the current system. This innovation will be made possible through development of a scientific, highly risk-formed approach for the design and regulation of nuclear power plants. This approach will include the development and/or confirmation of corresponding regulatory requirements and industry standards. The major impediment to long term competitiveness of new nuclear plants in the U.S. is the capital cost component--which may need to be reduced on the order of 35% to 40% for Advanced Light Water Reactors (ALWRS) such as System 80+ and Advanced Boiling Water Reactor (ABWR). The required cost reduction for an ALWR such as AP600 or AP1000 would be expected to be less. Such reductions in capital cost will require a fundamental reevaluation of the industry standards and regulatory bases under which nuclear plants are designed and licensed. Fortunately, there is now an increasing awareness that many of the existing regulatory requirements and industry standards are not significantly contributing to safety and reliability and, therefore, are unnecessarily adding to nuclear plant costs. Not only does this degrade the economic competitiveness of nuclear energy, it results in unnecessary costs to the American electricity consumer. While addressing these concerns, this research project will be coordinated with current efforts of industry and NRC to develop risk-informed, performance-based regulations that affect the operation of the existing nuclear plants; however, this project will go further by focusing on the design of new plants

  7. Risk-informed assessment of regulatory and design requirements for future nuclear power plants. Annual report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2000-08-01

    OAK B188 Risk-informed assessment of regulatory and design requirements for future nuclear power plants. Annual report. The overall goal of this research project is to support innovation in new nuclear power plant designs. This project is examining the implications, for future reactors and future safety regulation, of utilizing a new risk-informed regulatory system as a replacement for the current system. This innovation will be made possible through development of a scientific, highly risk-formed approach for the design and regulation of nuclear power plants. This approach will include the development and/or confirmation of corresponding regulatory requirements and industry standards. The major impediment to long term competitiveness of new nuclear plants in the U.S. is the capital cost component--which may need to be reduced on the order of 35% to 40% for Advanced Light Water Reactors (ALWRS) such as System 80+ and Advanced Boiling Water Reactor (ABWR). The required cost reduction for an ALWR such as AP600 or AP1000 would be expected to be less. Such reductions in capital cost will require a fundamental reevaluation of the industry standards and regulatory bases under which nuclear plants are designed and licensed. Fortunately, there is now an increasing awareness that many of the existing regulatory requirements and industry standards are not significantly contributing to safety and reliability and, therefore, are unnecessarily adding to nuclear plant costs. Not only does this degrade the economic competitiveness of nuclear energy, it results in unnecessary costs to the American electricity consumer. While addressing these concerns, this research project will be coordinated with current efforts of industry and NRC to develop risk-informed, performance-based regulations that affect the operation of the existing nuclear plants; however, this project will go further by focusing on the design of new plants.

  8. Spent Fuel Transportation Package Performance Study - Experimental Design Challenges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Snyder, A. M.; Murphy, A. J.; Sprung, J. L.; Ammerman, D. J.; Lopez, C.

    2003-01-01

    Numerous studies of spent nuclear fuel transportation accident risks have been performed since the late seventies that considered shipping container design and performance. Based in part on these studies, NRC has concluded that the level of protection provided by spent nuclear fuel transportation package designs under accident conditions is adequate. [1] Furthermore, actual spent nuclear fuel transport experience showcase a safety record that is exceptional and unparalleled when compared to other hazardous materials transportation shipments. There has never been a known or suspected release of the radioactive contents from an NRC-certified spent nuclear fuel cask as a result of a transportation accident. In 1999 the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) initiated a study, the Package Performance Study, to demonstrate the performance of spent fuel and spent fuel packages during severe transportation accidents. NRC is not studying or testing its current regulations, a s the rigorous regulatory accident conditions specified in 10 CFR Part 71 are adequate to ensure safe packaging and use. As part of this study, NRC currently plans on using detailed modeling followed by experimental testing to increase public confidence in the safety of spent nuclear fuel shipments. One of the aspects of this confirmatory research study is the commitment to solicit and consider public comment during the scoping phase and experimental design planning phase of this research

  9. Research design considerations for clinical studies of abuse-deterrent opioid analgesics: IMMPACT recommendations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turk, Dennis C.; O’Connor, Alec B.; Dworkin, Robert H.; Chaudhry, Amina; Katz, Nathaniel P.; Adams, Edgar H.; Brownstein, John S.; Comer, Sandra D.; Dart, Richard; Dasgupta, Nabarun; Denisco, Richard A.; Klein, Michael; Leiderman, Deborah B.; Lubran, Robert; Rappaport, Bob A.; Zacny, James P.; Ahdieh, Harry; Burke, Laurie B.; Cowan, Penney; Jacobs, Petra; Malamut, Richard; Markman, John; Michna, Edward; Palmer, Pamela; Peirce-Sandner, Sarah; Potter, Jennifer S.; Raja, Srinivasa N.; Rauschkolb, Christine; Roland, Carl L.; Webster, Lynn R.; Weiss, Roger D.; Wolf, Kerry

    2013-01-01

    Opioids are essential to the management of pain in many patients, but they also are associated with potential risks for abuse, overdose, and diversion. A number of efforts have been devoted to the development of abuse-deterrent formulations of opioids to reduce these risks. This article summarizes a consensus meeting that was organized to propose recommendations for the types of clinical studies that can be used to assess the abuse deterrence of different opioid formulations. Due to the many types of individuals who may be exposed to opioids, an opioid formulation will need to be studied in several populations using various study designs in order to determine its abuse-deterrent capabilities. It is recommended that the research conducted to evaluate abuse deterrence should include studies assessing: (1) abuse liability; (2) the likelihood that opioid abusers will find methods to circumvent the deterrent properties of the formulation; (3) measures of misuse and abuse in randomized clinical trials involving pain patients with both low risk and high risk of abuse; and (4) post-marketing epidemiological studies. PMID:22770841

  10. Disaster Preparedness activities in Havana: the study of the Community leaders´ Perception of risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nuria Gaeta Carrillo

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Risk reduction and build resilience in order to prevent some disasters require not just well coordinated authorities, a sound legislation and strong institutions. It is also vital to involve the local communities in preventive measures. The design of community training and community based preparedness activities is not ofen planned properly and is done without enough information, leading to a breakdown in the intervention. Based on personal and group interviews and a survey, this study performs an exploration of community leaders´ perceptions about risks in Havana that strengthens or constrains preventive measures and enhance or not response capacities. information that helps to design capacity building activities at studied community.

  11. Using the Design for Demise Philosophy to Reduce Casualty Risk Due to Reentering Spacecraft

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelley, R. L.

    2012-01-01

    Recently the reentry of a number of vehicles has garnered public attention due to their risk of human casualty due to fragments surviving reentry. In order to minimize this risk for their vehicles, a number of NASA programs have actively sought to minimize the number of components likely to survive reentry at the end of their spacecraft's life in order to meet and/or exceed NASA safety standards for controlled and uncontrolled reentering vehicles. This philosophy, referred to as "Design for Demise" or D4D, has steadily been adopted, to at least some degree, by numerous programs. The result is that many programs are requesting evaluations of components at the early stages of vehicle design, as they strive to find ways to reduce the number surviving components while ensuring that the components meet the performance requirements of their mission. This paper will discuss some of the methods that have been employed to ensure that the consequences of the vehicle s end-of-life are considered at the beginning of the design process. In addition this paper will discuss the technical challenges overcome, as well as some of the more creative solutions which have been utilized to reduce casualty risk.

  12. Advanced in-vessel retention design for next generation risk management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Suh, Kune Y; Hwang, Il Soon [Seoul National University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    1998-12-31

    In the TMI-2 accident, approximately twenty (20) tons of molten core material drained into the lower plenum. Early advanced light water reactor (LWR) designs assumed a lower head failure and incorporated various measures for ex-vessel accident mitigation. However,one of the major findings from the TMI-2 Vessel Investigation Project was that one part of the reactor lower head wall estimated to have attained a temperature of 1100 deg C for about 30 minutes has seemingly experienced a comparatively rapid cooldown with no major threat to the vessel integrity. In this regard, recent empirical and analytical studies have shifted interests to such in-vessel retention designs or strategies as reactor cavity flooding, in-vessel flooding and engineered gap cooling of the vessel. Accurate thermohydrodynamic and creep deformation modeling and rupture prediction are the key to the success in developing practically useful in-vessel accident/risk management strategies. As an advanced in-vessel design concept, this work presents the COrium Attack Syndrome Immunization Structures (COASIS) that are being developed as prospective in-vessel retention devices for a next-generation LWR in concert with existing ex-vessel management measures. Both the engineered gap structures in-vessel (COASISI) and ex-vessel (COASISO) are demonstrated to maintain effective heat transfer geometry during molten core debris attack when applied to the Korean Standard Nuclear Power Plant (KSNPP) reactor. The likelihood of lower head creep rupture during a severe accident is found to be significantly suppressed by the COASIS options. 15 refs., 5 figs., 1 tab. (Author)

  13. Advanced in-vessel retention design for next generation risk management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Suh, Kune Y.; Hwang, Il Soon [Seoul National University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    1997-12-31

    In the TMI-2 accident, approximately twenty (20) tons of molten core material drained into the lower plenum. Early advanced light water reactor (LWR) designs assumed a lower head failure and incorporated various measures for ex-vessel accident mitigation. However,one of the major findings from the TMI-2 Vessel Investigation Project was that one part of the reactor lower head wall estimated to have attained a temperature of 1100 deg C for about 30 minutes has seemingly experienced a comparatively rapid cooldown with no major threat to the vessel integrity. In this regard, recent empirical and analytical studies have shifted interests to such in-vessel retention designs or strategies as reactor cavity flooding, in-vessel flooding and engineered gap cooling of the vessel. Accurate thermohydrodynamic and creep deformation modeling and rupture prediction are the key to the success in developing practically useful in-vessel accident/risk management strategies. As an advanced in-vessel design concept, this work presents the COrium Attack Syndrome Immunization Structures (COASIS) that are being developed as prospective in-vessel retention devices for a next-generation LWR in concert with existing ex-vessel management measures. Both the engineered gap structures in-vessel (COASISI) and ex-vessel (COASISO) are demonstrated to maintain effective heat transfer geometry during molten core debris attack when applied to the Korean Standard Nuclear Power Plant (KSNPP) reactor. The likelihood of lower head creep rupture during a severe accident is found to be significantly suppressed by the COASIS options. 15 refs., 5 figs., 1 tab. (Author)

  14. Bilirubin and Stroke Risk Using a Mendelian Randomization Design.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Sun Ju; Jee, Yon Ho; Jung, Keum Ji; Hong, Seri; Shin, Eun Soon; Jee, Sun Ha

    2017-05-01

    Circulating bilirubin, a natural antioxidant, is associated with decreased risk of stroke. However, the nature of the relationship between the two remains unknown. We used a Mendelian randomization analysis to assess the causal effect of serum bilirubin on stroke risk in Koreans. The 14 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) (bilirubin level in the KCPS-II (Korean Cancer Prevention Study-II) Biobank subcohort consisting of 4793 healthy Korean and 806 stroke cases. Weighted genetic risk score was calculated using 14 SNPs selected from the top SNPs. Both rs6742078 (F statistics=138) and weighted genetic risk score with 14 SNPs (F statistics=187) were strongly associated with bilirubin levels. Simultaneously, serum bilirubin level was associated with decreased risk of stroke in an ordinary least-squares analysis. However, in 2-stage least-squares Mendelian randomization analysis, no causal relationship between serum bilirubin and stroke risk was found. There is no evidence that bilirubin level is causally associated with risk of stroke in Koreans. Therefore, bilirubin level is not a risk determinant of stroke. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

  15. Planting the Seeds of Effective Entrepreneurship by Teaching Risk, Advising, and Design through Growth.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David F. Robinson

    2008-08-01

    Full Text Available In order to be successful, new entrepreneurs must learn to know their tolerance for risk, the ways to grow a business, and how to adapt their organization’s structure for success.  This study explores several relevant teaching methods for helping entrepreneurship students learn essential concepts and skills.  Recommended teaching techniques include: Using realistic risk assessments that include having students address what their personal consequences of failure might be, development of individual business plans to mimic the commitment and ownership experience by entrepreneurs, accessing advisors while creating their business plans, and simulating rapid growth and consolidation as a platform for learning key concepts of organizational structure, design and change practices.  The practical and vivid nature of these teaching techniques contributes to their potential for retention and use by students in their future entrepreneurial organizations.

  16. Flood Risk Management in Remote and Impoverished Areas—A Case Study of Onaville, Haiti

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valentin Heimhuber

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available In this study, geographic information system (GIS-based hydrologic and hydraulic modeling was used to perform a flood risk assessment for Onaville, which is a fairly new, rapidly growing informal settlement that is exposed to dangerous flash-flood events. Since records of historic floods did not exist for the study area, design storms with a variety of significant average return intervals (ARIs were derived from intensity-duration-frequency (IDF curves and transformed into design floods via rainfall-runoff modeling in hydrologic engineering center’s hydrologic modeling system (HEC-HMS. The hydraulic modeling software hydrologic engineering center’s river analysis system (HEC-RAS was used to perform one-dimensional, unsteady-flow simulations of the design floods in the Ravine Lan Couline, which is the major drainage channel of the area. Topographic data comprised a 12 m spatial resolution TanDEM-X digital elevation model (DEM and a 30 cm spatial resolution DEM created with mapping drones. The flow simulations revealed that large areas of the settlement are currently exposed to flood hazard. The results of the hydrologic and hydraulic modeling were incorporated into a flood hazard map which formed the basis for flood risk management. We present a grassroots approach for preventive flood risk management on a community level, which comprises the elaboration of a neighborhood contingency plan and a flood risk awareness campaign together with representatives of the local community of Onaville.

  17. Risk factors for neurocysticercosis: A study from Northwest India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohit Girotra

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Neurocysticercosis (NCC is a common cause of epilepsy in the low- and middle-income countries. The risk factors for NCC vary from region to region. Aims: To study the risk factors NCC among patients with NCC and compare with age-and gender-matched controls without NCC. Setting and Design: Hospital-based case-control study. Materials and Methods: A total of 214 subjects were studied (109 NCC patients and 105 age- and gender-matched controls without NCC. The participants were selected from neurology and medical wards of a tertiary referral hospital in Northwest India. They were interviewed by trained medical interns using a questionnaire. Results: Patients with NCC were more likely to dispose garbage close to water source (P = 0.01, eat nonvegetarian food (P < 0.001, and often eat in restaurants (P < 0.001. Pigs were seen more in and around the NCC patient′s houses than the control subjects residential areas (P = 0.001. A total of 15% of the NCC subjects lived close to slaughter houses, while only 2.7% of the control group stayed near a slaughter house (P = 0.002. Conclusions: Unhygienic practices, nonvegetarian food, and eating in restaurants were the risk factors for NCC in this study. There is an opportunity for prevention of NCC using public education.

  18. Psychological risk factors of micro- and macrovascular outcomes in primary care patients with type 2 diabetes: rationale and design of the DiaDDZoB Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pop Victor JM

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Depression is a common psychiatric complication of diabetes, but little is known about the natural course and the consequences of depressive symptoms in primary care patients with type 2 diabetes. While depression has been related to poor glycemic control and increased risk for macrovascular disease, its association with microvascular complications remains understudied. The predictive role of other psychological risk factors such as Type D (distressed personality and the mechanisms that possibly link depression and Type D personality with poor vascular outcomes are also still unclear. Methods/Design This prospective cohort study will examine: (1 the course of depressive symptoms in primary care patients with type 2 diabetes; (2 whether depressive symptoms and Type D personality are associated with the development of microvascular and/or macrovascular complications and with the risk of all-cause or vascular mortality; and (3 the behavioral and physiological mechanisms that may mediate these associations. The DiaDDZoB Study is embedded within the larger DIAZOB Primary Care Diabetes study, which covers a comprehensive cohort of type 2 diabetes patients treated by over 200 primary care physicians in South-East Brabant, The Netherlands. These patients will be followed during their lifetime and are assessed annually for demographic, clinical, lifestyle and psychosocial factors. Measurements include an interviewer-administered and self-report questionnaire, regular care laboratory tests and physical examinations, and pharmacy medication records. The DiaDDZoB Study uses data that have been collected during the original baseline assessment in 2005 (M0; N = 2,460 and the 2007 (M1; N = 2,225 and 2008 (M2; N = 2,032 follow-up assessments. Discussion The DiaDDZoB Study is expected to contribute to the current understanding of the course of depression in primary care patients with type 2 diabetes and will also test whether depressed

  19. A Twin Study of Objective and Subjective Pubertal Timing and Peer Influence on Risk-Taking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kretsch, Natalie; Mendle, Jane; Harden, K Paige

    2016-03-01

    The current study used a behavioral genetic design to test whether three measures of pubertal timing moderated peer influence on risk-taking in a sample of 248 female adolescent twin pairs ( M age =16.0, SD =1.5) from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health. Peer influence was operationalized as the quasi-causal association between girls' self-reported risk-taking and the risk-taking reported by their friends. Girls with earlier ages at menarche and who perceived themselves as more developed than peers were more susceptible to peer influence on risk-taking. However, age-standardized ratings of body changes did not moderate peer influence. This study highlights distinctions between multiple measures of pubertal timing, using an innovative synthesis of genetically informative data and peer nomination data.

  20. Preventing Dampness Related Health Risks at the Design Stage of Buildings in Mediterranean Climates: A Cyprus Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ugochukwu Kenechi Elinwa

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Dampness is a major building challenge that poses a health risk by aiding the growth of mold and other related microorganisms in very humid areas. Thus, the correction of these post-effects results in high maintenance costs via energy consumption, due to the prolonged heating of damp rooms and post-treatment, especially during the winter. A survey of 2000 valid respondents living in apartment-style buildings was conducted and analyzed using SPSS software. In this study, the AutoDesk Computational Fluid Dynamics (ACFD software was used to perform a simulation for building materials analysis, to evaluate them for suitability in high humidity areas and to select the best building orientation for adequate and natural ventilation. The analysis aimed to observe the indoor air conditions due to environmental air flow conditions. The relationships of the airflow conditions to the material properties were measured. The methodology involves a Failure Modes and Effects Analysis to determine the level and nature of the dampness sources. The Design-Expert Statistical-Software 10 confirmed the simulation results. The simulation revealed a lower percentage of relative humidity and temperature in Adobe walls than in brick walls.

  1. Market Mechanism Design for Renewable Energy based on Risk Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Wu; Bo, Wang; Jichun, Liu; Wenjiao, Zai; Pingliang, Zeng; Haobo, Shi

    2018-02-01

    Generation trading between renewable energy and thermal power is an efficient market means for transforming supply structure of electric power into sustainable development pattern. But the trading is hampered by the output fluctuations of renewable energy and the cost differences between renewable energy and thermal power at present. In this paper, the external environmental cost (EEC) is defined and the EEC is introduced into the generation cost. At same time, the incentive functions of renewable energy and low-emission thermal power are designed, which are decreasing functions of EEC. On these bases, for the market risks caused by the random variability of EEC, the decision-making model of generation trading between renewable energy and thermal power is constructed according to the risk theory. The feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed model are verified by simulation results.

  2. Risk management at the stage of design of high-rise construction facilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Politi, Violetta

    2018-03-01

    This paper describes the assessment of the probabilistic risk of an accident formed in the process of designing a technically complex facility. It considers values of conditional probabilities of the compliance of load-bearing structures with safety requirements, provides an approximate list of significant errors of the designer and analyzes the relationship between the degree of compliance and the level of danger of errors. It describes and proposes for implementation the regulated procedures related to the assessment of the safety level of constructive solutions and the reliability of the construction process participants.

  3. Design risk analysis comparison between low-activation composite and aluminum alloy target chamber for the National Ignition Facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Streckert, H.H.; Schleicher, R.W.

    1997-01-01

    The baseline design for the target chamber for the National Ignition Facility (NIF) consists of an aluminum alloy spherical shell. A low-activation composite chamber (e.g., carbon fiber/epoxy) has important advantages such as enhanced environmental and safety characteristics, improved chamber accessibility due to reduced neutron-induced radioactivity, and elimination of the concrete shield. However, it is critical to determine the design and manufacturing risk for the first application. The replacement of such a critical component requires a detailed development risk assessment. A semiquantitative approach to risk assessment has been applied to this problem based on failure modes, effects, and criticality analysis. This analysis consists of a systematic method for organizing the collective judgment of the designers to identify failure modes, estimate probabilities, judge the severity of the consequence, and illustrate risk in a matrix representation. The results of the analyses indicate that the composite chamber has a reasonably high probability of success in the NIF application. The aluminum alloy chamber, however, represents a lower risk, partially based on a more mature technology. 8 refs., 4 figs., 5 tabs

  4. Methodology for risk assessment and reliability applied for pipeline engineering design and industrial valves operation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Silveira, Dierci [Universidade Federal Fluminense (UFF), Volta Redonda, RJ (Brazil). Escola de Engenharia Industrial e Metalurgia. Lab. de Sistemas de Producao e Petroleo e Gas], e-mail: dsilveira@metal.eeimvr.uff.br; Batista, Fabiano [CICERO, Rio das Ostras, RJ (Brazil)

    2009-07-01

    Two kinds of situations may be distinguished for estimating the operating reliability when maneuvering industrial valves and the probability of undesired events in pipelines and industrial plants: situations in which the risk is identified in repetitive cycles of operations and situations in which there is a permanent hazard due to project configurations introduced by decisions during the engineering design definition stage. The estimation of reliability based on the influence of design options requires the choice of a numerical index, which may include a composite of human operating parameters based on biomechanics and ergonomics data. We first consider the design conditions under which the plant or pipeline operator reliability concepts can be applied when operating industrial valves, and then describe in details the ergonomics and biomechanics risks that would lend itself to engineering design database development and human reliability modeling and assessment. This engineering design database development and reliability modeling is based on a group of engineering design and biomechanics parameters likely to lead to over-exertion forces and working postures, which are themselves associated with the functioning of a particular plant or pipeline. This approach to construct based on ergonomics and biomechanics for a more common industrial valve positioning in the plant layout is proposed through the development of a methodology to assess physical efforts and operator reach, combining various elementary operations situations. These procedures can be combined with the genetic algorithm modeling and four elements of the man-machine systems: the individual, the task, the machinery and the environment. The proposed methodology should be viewed not as competing to traditional reliability and risk assessment bur rather as complementary, since it provides parameters related to physical efforts values for valves operation and workspace design and usability. (author)

  5. Fuzzy risk matrix

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Markowski, Adam S.; Mannan, M. Sam

    2008-01-01

    A risk matrix is a mechanism to characterize and rank process risks that are typically identified through one or more multifunctional reviews (e.g., process hazard analysis, audits, or incident investigation). This paper describes a procedure for developing a fuzzy risk matrix that may be used for emerging fuzzy logic applications in different safety analyses (e.g., LOPA). The fuzzification of frequency and severity of the consequences of the incident scenario are described which are basic inputs for fuzzy risk matrix. Subsequently using different design of risk matrix, fuzzy rules are established enabling the development of fuzzy risk matrices. Three types of fuzzy risk matrix have been developed (low-cost, standard, and high-cost), and using a distillation column case study, the effect of the design on final defuzzified risk index is demonstrated

  6. A New Approach in the Design of High-Risk Infusion Technology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Murphy

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The syringe infusion pump has been established as the instrument of choice for high-risk infusions, where potent drugs are often delivered at low rates of flow. However, numerous instances of unexpected flow error with consequent patient physiological impact have been reported. These include unwanted bolus delivery on release of line occlusion, dosage fluctuation due to pump height change and fluid reflux within the multiple pump installations now common in the Intensive Care Unit (ICU. This article examines the performance of a typical ICU syringe infusion pump and identifies mechanical compliance, inherent in commercial designs, as a source of flow error that should not be ignored by equipment designers. A prototype low compliance system is described and tested with performance compared to the conventional design, demonstrating advantages in terms of lower flow error.

  7. How do patients at risk portray candidates for coronary heart disease? A qualitative interview study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frich, J.C.; Malterud, K.; Fugelli, P.

    2007-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To explore how patients at risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) portray candidates for CHD. DESIGN: Qualitative interview study. SETTING: Norway. SUBJECTS: A total of 20 men and 20 women diagnosed with heterozygous familial hypercholesterolemia (FH) recruited through a lipid clinic. MAIN...... considered their notions to be valid for assessing people's risk of CHD, others questioned how valid their notions were. CONCLUSION: Doctors should recognize that distancing is a way patients cope with risk and that such a strategy may have psychological and moral reasons. When communicating about risk...

  8. HIV in East London: ethnicity, gender and risk. Design and methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bukutu Cecilia

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background While men who have sex with men remain the group at greatest risk of acquiring HIV infection in the UK, the number of new diagnoses among heterosexuals has risen steadily over the last five years. In the UK, three-quarters of heterosexual men and women diagnosed with HIV in 2004 probably acquired their infection in Africa. This changing epidemiological pattern is particularly pronounced in East London because of its ethnically diverse population. Design and methods The objective of the study was to examine the social, economic and behavioural characteristics of patients with HIV infection currently receiving treatment and care in hospitals in East London. The research focused on ethnicity, gender, sexuality, education, employment, housing, HIV treatment, stigma, discrimination, religion, migration and sexual risk behaviour. People diagnosed with HIV infection attending outpatient treatment clinics at St Bartholomew's, the Royal London, Whipp's Cross, Homerton, Newham and Barking hospitals (all in East London over a 4–6 month period were invited to participate in the study in 2004–2005. Those who agreed to participate completed a confidential, self-administered pen-and-paper questionnaire. During the study period, 2680 patients with HIV attended the outpatient clinics in the six participating hospitals, of whom 2299 were eligible for the study and 1687 completed a questionnaire. The response rate was 73% of eligible patients and 63% of all patients attending the clinics during the survey period. Discussion A clinic-based study has allowed us to survey nearly 1700 patients with HIV from diverse backgrounds receiving treatment and care in East London. The data collected in this study will provide valuable information for the planning and delivery of appropriate clinical care, social support and health promotion for people living with HIV not only in East London but in other parts of the capital as well as elsewhere in the UK.

  9. Case Study of Engineering Risk in Automotive Industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Popa, Dan Mihai

    2018-03-01

    The primary objective of this paper is to show where the engineering of risk management is placed and how its implementation has been tried in multinational companies in automotive industry from Romania. A large number of companies don't use a strategy to avoid the engineering risk in their design products. The main reason is not because these companies haven't heard about standards for risk management such as ISO 31000; the problem is that the business units which were summed up, have just set up a risk list at the beginning of the project, without any follow up. The purpose of this article is to create an implementation risk tracking in automotive industry companies in Romania, due to a change request from customers according to supply companies within the quality process, in the research and development phase.

  10. A Study to Assess the Knowledge on Risk for Fall among Geriatric People Above 60 Years at Selected Oldage Home at Karaikal

    OpenAIRE

    R.G. Padmapriya; E. Kalaivani

    2017-01-01

    A study to assess the risk for fall among geriatric people above 60 years of age in selected old age home at karaikal. The research approach was adopted for this study was quantitative approach. The research design used for this study is descriptive design. A simple random sampling technique adopted to select the desired sample. Sample size is 50. Donna conley fall risk assessment scale was used to assess the risk for fall among geriatric people above 60 years of age . The collected data was...

  11. Symptomatic knee disorders in floor layers and graphic designers. A cross-sectional study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jensen Lilli

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Previous studies have described an increased risk of developing tibio-femoral osteoarthritis (TF OA, meniscal tears and bursitis among those with a trade as floor layers. The purpose of this study was to analyse symptomatic knee disorders among floor layers that were highly exposed to kneeling work tasks compared to graphic designers without knee-demanding work tasks. Methods Data on the Knee injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score (KOOS were collected by questionnaires. In total 134 floor layers and 120 graphic designers had a bilateral radiographic knee examination to detect TF OA and patella-femoral (PF OA. A random sample of 92 floor layers and 49 graphic designers had Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI of both knees to examine meniscal tears. Means of the subscales of KOOS were compared by analysis of variance. The risk ratio of symptomatic knee disorders defined as a combination of radiological detected knee OA or MRI-detected meniscal tears combined with a low KOOS score was estimated by logistic regression in floor layers with 95% confidence interval (CI and adjusted for age, body mass index, traumas, and knee-straining sports activities. Symptomatic knee OA or meniscal tears were defined as a combination of low KOOS-scores and radiographic or MRI pathology. Results Symptomatic TF and medial meniscal tears were found in floor layers compared to graphic designers with odds ratios 2.6 (95%CI 0.99-6.9 and 2.04 (95% CI 0.77-5.5, respectively. There were no differences in PF OA. Floor layers scored significantly lower on all KOOS subscales compared to graphic designers. Significantly lower scores on the KOOS subscales were also found for radiographic TF and PF OA regardless of trade but not for meniscal tears. Conclusions The study showed an overall increased risk of developing symptomatic TF OA in a group of floor layers with a substantial amount of kneeling work positions. Prevention would be appropriate to reduce the

  12. Effectiveness of a web-based health risk assessment with individually-tailored feedback on lifestyle behaviour: study protocol

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laan Eva K

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Physical inactivity, unhealthy dietary habits, smoking and high alcohol consumption are recognized risk factors for cardiovascular disease and cancer. Web-based health risk assessments with tailored feedback seem promising in promoting a healthy lifestyle. This study evaluates the effectiveness of a web-based health risk assessment with individually-tailored feedback on lifestyle behaviour, conducted in a worksite setting. Methods/Design The web-based health risk assessment starts with a questionnaire covering socio-demographic variables, family and personal medical history, lifestyle behaviour and psychological variables. Prognostic models are used to estimate individual cardiovascular risks. In case of high risk further biometric and laboratory evaluation is advised. All participants receive individually-tailored feedback on their responses to the health risk assessment questionnaire. The study uses a quasi-experimental design with a waiting list control group. Data are collected at baseline (T0 and after six months (T1. Within each company, clusters of employees are allocated to either the intervention or the control group. Primary outcome is lifestyle behaviour, expressed as the sum of five indicators namely physical activity, nutrition, smoking behaviour, alcohol consumption, and symptoms of burnout. Multilevel regression analysis will be used to answer the main research question and to correct for clustering effects. Baseline differences between the intervention and control group in the distribution of characteristics with a potential effect on lifestyle change will be taken into account in further analyses using propensity scores. Discussion This study will increase insight into the effectiveness of health risk assessments with tailored feedback and into conditions that may modify the effectiveness. This information can be used to design effective interventions for lifestyle behaviour change among employees. Trial

  13. Review on the present status of the German Risk Study: overall results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heuser, F.W.

    1982-01-01

    An overview on the most important results of the German Risk Study (Phase A) is given. Besides plant design analysis, the description mainly refers to core melt accidents, radioactive release and accidental consequences depending on various types of containment failure. Thereby some differences or results compared to WASH 1400 are discussed

  14. Risk-Informed Monitoring, Verification and Accounting (RI-MVA). An NRAP White Paper Documenting Methods and a Demonstration Model for Risk-Informed MVA System Design and Operations in Geologic Carbon Sequestration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Unwin, Stephen D.; Sadovsky, Artyom; Sullivan, E. C.; Anderson, Richard M.

    2011-09-30

    This white paper accompanies a demonstration model that implements methods for the risk-informed design of monitoring, verification and accounting (RI-MVA) systems in geologic carbon sequestration projects. The intent is that this model will ultimately be integrated with, or interfaced with, the National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) integrated assessment model (IAM). The RI-MVA methods described here apply optimization techniques in the analytical environment of NRAP risk profiles to allow systematic identification and comparison of the risk and cost attributes of MVA design options.

  15. Symptomatic knee disorders in floor layers and graphic designers. A cross-sectional study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Lilli Kirkeskov; Rytter, Søren; Bonde, Jens Peter

    2012-01-01

    Previous studies have described an increased risk of developing tibio-femoral osteoarthritis (TF OA), meniscal tears and bursitis among those with a trade as floor layers. The purpose of this study was to analyse symptomatic knee disorders among floor layers that were highly exposed to kneeling w...... work tasks compared to graphic designers without knee-demanding work tasks....

  16. Quantifying lead-time bias in risk factor studies of cancer through simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jansen, Rick J; Alexander, Bruce H; Anderson, Kristin E; Church, Timothy R

    2013-11-01

    Lead-time is inherent in early detection and creates bias in observational studies of screening efficacy, but its potential to bias effect estimates in risk factor studies is not always recognized. We describe a form of this bias that conventional analyses cannot address and develop a model to quantify it. Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) data form the basis for estimates of age-specific preclinical incidence, and log-normal distributions describe the preclinical duration distribution. Simulations assume a joint null hypothesis of no effect of either the risk factor or screening on the preclinical incidence of cancer, and then quantify the bias as the risk-factor odds ratio (OR) from this null study. This bias can be used as a factor to adjust observed OR in the actual study. For this particular study design, as average preclinical duration increased, the bias in the total-physical activity OR monotonically increased from 1% to 22% above the null, but the smoking OR monotonically decreased from 1% above the null to 5% below the null. The finding of nontrivial bias in fixed risk-factor effect estimates demonstrates the importance of quantitatively evaluating it in susceptible studies. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Design definition study of a life/cruise fan technology V/STOL aircraft. Volume 2, addendum 2: Program risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    1975-01-01

    The results are presented of a risk assessment study conducted on two technology aircraft. The aircraft system components were reviewed and assessed for risk based on: (1) complexity relative to state-of-the-art, (2) manufacturing and qualification testing, (3) availability and delays, and (4) cost/schedule impact. These assessments were based on five risk nomenclatures: low, minor, moderate, high, and extreme. Each aircraft system was assigned an overall risk rating depending upon its contribution to the capability of the aircraft to achieve the performance goals. The slightly lower Sabreliner performance margin is due to the restricted flight envelope, the fixed landing gear, and internal fuel capacity. The Sabreliner with retractable gear and allowed to fly at its best speed and altitude would reflect performance margins similar to the New Airframe. These significant margins, inherent with the MCAIR three gas generator/three fan propulsion system, are major modifiers to risk assessment of both aircraft. The estimated risk and the associated key system and performance areas are tabulated.

  18. PRA and Conceptual Design

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeMott, Diana; Fuqua, Bryan; Wilson, Paul

    2013-01-01

    Once a project obtains approval, decision makers have to consider a variety of alternative paths for completing the project and meeting the project objectives. How decisions are made involves a variety of elements including: cost, experience, current technology, ideologies, politics, future needs and desires, capabilities, manpower, timing, available information, and for many ventures management needs to assess the elements of risk versus reward. The use of high level Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) Models during conceptual design phases provides management with additional information during the decision making process regarding the risk potential for proposed operations and design prototypes. The methodology can be used as a tool to: 1) allow trade studies to compare alternatives based on risk, 2) determine which elements (equipment, process or operational parameters) drives the risk, and 3) provide information to mitigate or eliminate risks early in the conceptual design to lower costs. Creating system models using conceptual design proposals and generic key systems based on what is known today can provide an understanding of the magnitudes of proposed systems and operational risks and facilitates trade study comparisons early in the decision making process. Identifying the "best" way to achieve the desired results is difficult, and generally occurs based on limited information. PRA provides a tool for decision makers to explore how some decisions will affect risk before the project is committed to that path, which can ultimately save time and money.

  19. Repository design sensitivity study: Engineering study report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1987-01-01

    A preliminary sensitivity study of the salt repository design has been performed to identify critical site and design parameters to help guide future site characterization and design optimization activities. The study considered the SCP-conceptual design at the Deaf Smith County site in Texas with the horizontal waste package emplacement mode as the base case. Relative to this base case, parameter variations were compared. Limited studies were performed which considered the vertical emplacement mode geometry. The report presents the reference data base and design parameters on which the study was based (including the range of parameters that might be expected). Detailed descriptions of the numerical modeling methods and assumptions are included for the thermal, thermomechanical and hydrogeological analyses. The impacts of parameter variations on the sensitivity of the rock mass response are discussed. Recommendations are provided to help guide site characterization activities and advanced conceptual design optimization activities. 47 refs., 119 refs., 22 tabs

  20. Conceptual design study of fusion experimental reactor (FY86 FER)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kobayashi, Takeshi; Yamada, Masao; Mizoguchi, Tadanori

    1987-09-01

    This report describes the results of the reactor configuration/structure design for the fusion experimental reactor (FER) performed in FY 1986. The design was intended to meet the physical and engineering mission of the next step device which was decided by the subcommittee on the next step device of the nuclear fusion council. The objectives of the design study in FY 1986 are to advance and optimize the design concept of the last year because the recommendation of the subcommittee was basically the same as the design philosophy of the last year. Six candidate reactor configurations which correspond to options C ∼ D presented by the subcommittee were extensively examined. Consequently, ACS reactor (Advanced Option-C with Single Null Divertor) was selected as the reference configuration from viewpoints of technical risks and cost performance. Regarding the reactor structure, the following items were investigated intensively: minimization of reactor size, protection of first wall against plasma disruption, simplification of shield structure, reactor configuration which enables optimum arrangement of poloidal field coils. (author)

  1. A study on fire design accidental loads for aluminum safety helidecks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sang Jin Kim

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The helideck structure must satisfy the safety requirements associated with various environmental and accidental loads. Especially, there have been a number of fire accidents offshore due to helicopter collision (take-off and/or landing in recent decades. To prevent further accidents, a substantial amount of effort has been directed toward the management of fire in the safety design of offshore helidecks. The aims of this study are to introduce and apply a procedure for quantitative risk assessment and management of fires by defining the fire loads with an applied example. The frequency of helicopter accidents are considered, and design accidental levels are applied. The proposed procedures for determining design fire loads can be efficiently applied in offshore helideck development projects.

  2. Family structure and risk factors for schizophrenia: case-sibling study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lönnqvist Jouko

    2004-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Several family structure-related factors, such as birth order, family size, parental age, and age differences to siblings, have been suggested as risk factors for schizophrenia. We examined how family-structure-related variables modified the risk of schizophrenia in Finnish families with at least one child with schizophrenia born from 1950 to 1976. Methods We used case-sibling design, a variant of the matched case-control design in the analysis. Patients hospitalized for schizophrenia between 1969 and 1996 were identified from the Finnish Hospital Discharge Register, and their families from the Population Register Center. Only families with at least two children (7914 sibships and 21059 individuals were included in the analysis. Conditional logistic regression with sex, birth cohort, maternal schizophrenia status, and several family-related variables as explanatory variables was used in the case-sibling design. The effect of variables with the same value in each sibship was analyzed using ordinary logistic regression. Results Having a sibling who was less than five years older (OR 1.46, 95% CI 1.29–1.66, or being the firstborn (first born vs. second born 1.62, 1.87–1.4 predicted an elevated risk, but having siblings who were more than ten years older predicted a lower risk (0.66, 0.56–0.79. Conclusions Several family-structure-related variables were identified as risk factors for schizophrenia. The underlying causative mechanisms are likely to be variable.

  3. Design of Biomass Combined Heat and Power (CHP Systems based on Economic Risk using Minimax Regret Criterion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ling Wen Choong

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available It is a great challenge to identify optimum technologies for CHP systems that utilise biomass and convert it into heat and power. In this respect, industry decision makers are lacking in confidence to invest in biomass CHP due to economic risk from varying energy demand. This research work presents a linear programming systematic framework to design biomass CHP system based on potential loss of profit due to varying energy demand. Minimax Regret Criterion (MRC approach was used to assess maximum regret between selections of the given biomass CHP design based on energy demand. Based on this, the model determined an optimal biomass CHP design with minimum regret in economic opportunity. As Feed-in Tariff (FiT rates affects the revenue of the CHP plant, sensitivity analysis was then performed on FiT rates on the selection of biomass CHP design. Besides, design analysis on the trend of the optimum design selected by model was conducted. To demonstrate the proposed framework in this research, a case study was solved using the proposed approach. The case study focused on designing a biomass CHP system for a palm oil mill (POM due to large energy potential of oil palm biomass in Malaysia.

  4. Design Concept of Human Interface System for Risk Monitoring for Proactive Trouble Prevention

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hidekazu, Yoshikawa; Ming, Yang; Zhijian, Zhang

    2011-01-01

    interface systems to support the collaboration work between workers at local workplace and the main control room. In this paper, the general issues are reviewed on how to configure the whole human interface system for helping proactive trouble prevention and risk evaluation on the basis of the presented......) with the risk monitor to watch Defense-in Depth plant safety functions. The proposed concept is applied for a liquid metal fast reactor Monju and necessary R&D subjects are reviewed to realize human interface system for the maintenance work in Monju plant. Because of using high temperature liquid sodium...... as reactor coolant in Monju plant, the maintenance for Monju should utilize more automated equipments of remote control and robotics than that of light water reactor. It is necessary to design optimum task allocation between human and automated machine as the requisites for good communication design of human...

  5. Blockchain to Rule the Waves - Nascent Design Principles for Reducing Risk and Uncertainty in Decentralized Environments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nærland, Kristoffer; Müller-Bloch, Christoph; Beck, Roman

    2017-01-01

    Many decentralized, inter-organizational environments such as supply chains are characterized by high transactional uncertainty and risk. At the same time, blockchain technology promises to mitigate these issues by introducing certainty into economic transactions. This paper discusses the findings...... of a Design Science Research project involving the construction and evaluation of an information technology artifact in collaboration with Maersk, a leading international shipping company, where central documents in shipping, such as the Bill of Lading, are turned into a smart contract on blockchain. Based...... on our insights from the project, we provide first evidence for preliminary design principles for applications that aim to mitigate the transactional risk and uncertainty in decentralized environments using blockchain. Both the artifact and the first evidence for emerging design principles are novel...

  6. VTE Risk assessment - a prognostic Model: BATER Cohort Study of young women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heinemann, Lothar Aj; Dominh, Thai; Assmann, Anita; Schramm, Wolfgang; Schürmann, Rolf; Hilpert, Jan; Spannagl, Michael

    2005-04-18

    BACKGROUND: Community-based cohort studies are not available that evaluated the predictive power of both clinical and genetic risk factors for venous thromboembolism (VTE). There is, however, clinical need to forecast the likelihood of future occurrence of VTE, at least qualitatively, to support decisions about intensity of diagnostic or preventive measures. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A 10-year observation period of the Bavarian Thromboembolic Risk (BATER) study, a cohort study of 4337 women (18-55 years), was used to develop a predictive model of VTE based on clinical and genetic variables at baseline (1993). The objective was to prepare a probabilistic scheme that discriminates women with virtually no VTE risk from those at higher levels of absolute VTE risk in the foreseeable future. A multivariate analysis determined which variables at baseline were the best predictors of a future VTE event, provided a ranking according to the predictive power, and permitted to design a simple graphic scheme to assess the individual VTE risk using five predictor variables. RESULTS: Thirty-four new confirmed VTEs occurred during the observation period of over 32,000 women-years (WYs). A model was developed mainly based on clinical information (personal history of previous VTE and family history of VTE, age, BMI) and one composite genetic risk markers (combining Factor V Leiden and Prothrombin G20210A Mutation). Four levels of increasing VTE risk were arbitrarily defined to map the prevalence in the study population: No/low risk of VTE (61.3%), moderate risk (21.1%), high risk (6.0%), very high risk of future VTE (0.9%). In 10.6% of the population the risk assessment was not possible due to lacking VTE cases. The average incidence rates for VTE in these four levels were: 4.1, 12.3, 47.2, and 170.5 per 104 WYs for no, moderate, high, and very high risk, respectively. CONCLUSION: Our prognostic tool - containing clinical information (and if available also genetic data) - seems to be

  7. Crude incidence in two-phase designs in the presence of competing risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paola Rebora

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In many studies, some information might not be available for the whole cohort, some covariates, or even the outcome, might be ascertained in selected subsamples. These studies are part of a broad category termed two-phase studies. Common examples include the nested case-control and the case-cohort designs. For two-phase studies, appropriate weighted survival estimates have been derived; however, no estimator of cumulative incidence accounting for competing events has been proposed. This is relevant in the presence of multiple types of events, where estimation of event type specific quantities are needed for evaluating outcome. Methods We develop a non parametric estimator of the cumulative incidence function of events accounting for possible competing events. It handles a general sampling design by weights derived from the sampling probabilities. The variance is derived from the influence function of the subdistribution hazard. Results The proposed method shows good performance in simulations. It is applied to estimate the crude incidence of relapse in childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia in groups defined by a genotype not available for everyone in a cohort of nearly 2000 patients, where death due to toxicity acted as a competing event. In a second example the aim was to estimate engagement in care of a cohort of HIV patients in resource limited setting, where for some patients the outcome itself was missing due to lost to follow-up. A sampling based approach was used to identify outcome in a subsample of lost patients and to obtain a valid estimate of connection to care. Conclusions A valid estimator for cumulative incidence of events accounting for competing risks under a general sampling design from an infinite target population is derived.

  8. Adolescent perceptions of orthodontic treatment risks and risk information: A qualitative study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, John; Johnson, Ilona; Popat, Hashmat; Morgan, Maria Z; Gill, Paul

    2018-04-24

    For effective risk communication, clinicians must understand patients' values and beliefs in relation to the risks of treatment. This qualitative study aimed to explore adolescent perceptions of orthodontic treatment risks and risk information. Five focus groups were carried out with 32 school/college pupils aged 12-18 in Wales, UK. Participants were purposively selected and had all experienced orthodontic treatment. A thematic approach was used for analysis and data collection was completed at the point of data saturation. Four themes emerged from the data; (a) day-to-day risks of orthodontic treatment, (b) important orthodontic risk information, (c) engaging with orthodontic risk information and (d) managing the risks of orthodontic treatment. Day-to-day risks of orthodontic treatment that were affecting participants "here and now" were of most concern. Information about preventing the risks of treatment was deemed to be important. Participants did not actively seek risk information but engaged passively with information from convenient sources. Perceptions of risk susceptibility influenced participants' management of the risks of orthodontic treatment. This study demonstrates that adolescent patients can understand information about the nature and severity of orthodontic treatment risks. However, adolescent patients can have false perceptions if the risks are unfamiliar, perceived only to have a future impact or if seen as easy to control. Adolescent patients must be provided with timely and easily accessible risk information and with practical solutions to prevent the risks of treatment. The views and experiences gathered in this study can assist clinicians to better understand their young patients' beliefs about treatment risks, facilitate effective risk communication and contribute to improved patient-centred care. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Probabilistic risk assessment for CO2 storage in geological formations: robust design and support for decision making under uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oladyshkin, Sergey; Class, Holger; Helmig, Rainer; Nowak, Wolfgang

    2010-05-01

    CO2 storage in geological formations is currently being discussed intensively as a technology for mitigating CO2 emissions. However, any large-scale application requires a thorough analysis of the potential risks. Current numerical simulation models are too expensive for probabilistic risk analysis and for stochastic approaches based on brute-force repeated simulation. Even single deterministic simulations may require parallel high-performance computing. The multiphase flow processes involved are too non-linear for quasi-linear error propagation and other simplified stochastic tools. As an alternative approach, we propose a massive stochastic model reduction based on the probabilistic collocation method. The model response is projected onto a orthogonal basis of higher-order polynomials to approximate dependence on uncertain parameters (porosity, permeability etc.) and design parameters (injection rate, depth etc.). This allows for a non-linear propagation of model uncertainty affecting the predicted risk, ensures fast computation and provides a powerful tool for combining design variables and uncertain variables into one approach based on an integrative response surface. Thus, the design task of finding optimal injection regimes explicitly includes uncertainty, which leads to robust designs of the non-linear system that minimize failure probability and provide valuable support for risk-informed management decisions. We validate our proposed stochastic approach by Monte Carlo simulation using a common 3D benchmark problem (Class et al. Computational Geosciences 13, 2009). A reasonable compromise between computational efforts and precision was reached already with second-order polynomials. In our case study, the proposed approach yields a significant computational speedup by a factor of 100 compared to Monte Carlo simulation. We demonstrate that, due to the non-linearity of the flow and transport processes during CO2 injection, including uncertainty in the analysis

  10. Design and Co-design of Project-organized Studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jørgen Lerche; Andreasen, Lars Birch

    2014-01-01

    The chapter contributes to discussions on design processes in relation to education, presenting different notions of design research and demonstrating how professors and students are involved together in designing innovative and constructive study processes that can help foster students' engagement...

  11. German risk study of PWR's

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kafka, P.

    1983-01-01

    In this paper, first the status of German Risk Study is presented briefly. Specific reference is made to the investigations in Phase B of the study and related programs. Significant elements involved in the risk assessment for NPPs, mainly in the field of system and structural reliability analyses are mentioned. In particular, important outcomes and limiting facts in the process of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to evaluate the safety standard and above all the influence of individual components or subsystems on core melt frequency are discussed. (orig.)

  12. Long-term strategies for flood risk management: scenario definition and strategic alternative design

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bruijn, de K.; Klijn, F.; McGahey, C.; Mens, M.; Wolfert, H.P.

    2008-01-01

    This report reviews some mainstream existing methods of scenario development and use, as well as experiences with the design and assessment of strategic alternatives for flood risk management. Next, a procedure and methods are proposed and discussed. Thirdly, the procedure and methods are tried on

  13. SAS Macros for Calculation of Population Attributable Fraction in a Cohort Study Design

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maarit A. Laaksonen

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available The population attributable fraction (PAF is a useful measure for quantifying the impact of exposure to certain risk factors on a particular outcome at the population level. Recently, new model-based methods for the estimation of PAF and its confidence interval for different types of outcomes in a cohort study design have been proposed. In this paper, we introduce SAS macros implementing these methods and illustrate their application with a data example on the impact of different risk factors on type 2 diabetes incidence.

  14. The Army study to assess risk and resilience in servicemembers (Army STARRS).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ursano, Robert J; Colpe, Lisa J; Heeringa, Steven G; Kessler, Ronald C; Schoenbaum, Michael; Stein, Murray B

    2014-01-01

    IMPORTANCE/OBJECTIVE: Although the suicide rate in the U.S. Army has traditionally been below age-gender matched civilian rates, it has climbed steadily since the beginning of the Iraq and Afghanistan conflicts and since 2008 has exceeded the demographically matched civilian rate. The Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS) is a multicomponent epidemiological and neurobiological study designed to generate actionable evidence-based recommendations to reduce Army suicides and increase knowledge about risk and resilience factors for suicidality and its psychopathological correlates. This paper presents an overview of the Army STARRS component study designs and of recent findings. DESIGN/SETTING/PARTICIPANTS/INTERVENTION: Army STARRS includes six main component studies: (1) the Historical Administrative Data Study (HADS) of Army and Department of Defense (DoD) administrative data systems (including records of suicidal behaviors) for all soldiers on active duty 2004-2009 aimed at finding administrative record predictors of suicides; (2) retrospective case-control studies of fatal and nonfatal suicidal behaviors (each planned to have n = 150 cases and n = 300 controls); (3) a study of new soldiers (n = 50,765 completed surveys) assessed just before beginning basic combat training (BCT) with self-administered questionnaires (SAQ), neurocognitive tests, and blood samples; (4) a cross-sectional study of approximately 35,000 (completed SAQs) soldiers representative of all other (i.e., exclusive of BCT) active duty soldiers; (5) a pre-post deployment study (with blood samples) of soldiers in brigade combat teams about to deploy to Afghanistan (n = 9,421 completed baseline surveys), with sub-samples assessed again one, three, and nine months after returning from deployment; and (6) a pilot study to follow-up SAQ respondents transitioning to civilian life. Army/DoD administrative data are being linked prospectively to the large-scale survey

  15. Steam generator tube rupture risk impact on design and operation of French PWR plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Depond, G.; Sureau, H.

    1984-01-01

    The experience of steam generator tube leaks incidents in PWR plants has resulted in an increase of EDF analysis leading to improvements in design and post-accidental operation for new projects and operating plants. The accident consequences are minimized for each of the NSSS three barriers: first barrier: safeguard systems design and operating procedures relying upon core safety allow to maintain a low level of primary radioactivity, second barrier: steam generator design and periodic inspection allow to reduce tube ruptures risks and third barrier: atmospheric releases are reduced as a result of optimal recovery procedures, detection improvements and atmospheric steam valves design improvements. (orig.)

  16. A new risk-informed design and regulatory process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Apostolakis, George E.; Golay, Michael W.; Camp, Allen L.; Duran, Felicia A.; Finnicum, David; Ritterbusch, Stanley E.

    2001-01-01

    The overall purpose of the new approach, termed Risk-Informed Regulation, is to formulate a method of regulation that is logically consistent and devised so that both the reactor designer and regulator can work together in obtaining systems able to produce economical electricity safely. In this new system the traditional tools (deterministic and probabilistic analyses, tests and expert judgement) and treatments (defense-in-depth, conservatism) of safety regulation would still be employed, but the logic governing their use would be reversed from the current treatment. In the new treatment, probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) would be used as the paramount decision support tool, taking advantage of its ability to integrate all of the elements of system performance and to represent the uncertainties in the results. The latter is the most important reason for this choice, as the most difficult part of safety regulation is the treatment of uncertainties, not the assurance of expected performance. The scope of the PRA would be made as large as that of the reactor system, including all of its performance phenomena. The models and data of the PRA would be supported by deterministic analytical results, and data to the extent feasible. However, as in the current regulatory system, the models and data of the PRA would require being complemented by subjective judgements where the former were inadequate. All of these elements play important roles in the current decision-making structure; the main departure from current practice would be making all of these treatments explicit within the PRA, therefore, decreasing the frequency of sometimes arbitrary judgments. In the intended sense the PRA would be used as a vehicle for stating the beliefs of the designer and regulatory decision-maker; the foundation of their decisions. Thus, the PRA should be viewed as a Bayesian decision tool, and be used in order to take advantage of its capabilities in integration and inclusion of

  17. The impact of risk studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hansson, B.

    The report is a summary of the reports of various subprojects on nuclear safety. The purpose of the study was to evaluate the role and usefulness of major risk studies in societal opinion forming and decision making processes. The primary research material consisted in seven major risk studies, three of which were concerned with radioactive waste handling, two with reactor safety and two with comparative studies of various sources of energy. Special attention was given to the following four aspects: a) the way in which the studies were interpreted b)the extent to which these studies have clarified the risks they analyse c) the extent to which these studies have narrowed the scientific debate d) the degree to which these studies have actually influenced safety measures and regulatory policy. The picture which emerges is one of success in relation to the effects on the nuclear establishment and largely a failure as attempts at settling disputes and informing the public. (G.B.)

  18. Can Technology Decrease Sexual Risk Behaviors among Young People? Results of a Pilot Study Examining the Effectiveness of a Mobile Application Intervention

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, Dawnyéa D.; Ingram, Lucy Annang; Boyer, Cherrie B.; Robillard, Alyssa; Huhns, Michael N.

    2016-01-01

    College students represent an important population for studying and understanding factors that influence sexual risk given the populations' high risk of sexually transmitted infections and unintended pregnancies. Using a quasi-experimental design, the efficacy of a brief and theory-driven mobile application intervention designed to decrease sexual…

  19. Plant sterol intakes and colorectal cancer risk in the Netherlands : cohort study on diet and cancer

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Normén, A.L.; Brants, H.A.M.; Voorrips, L.E.; Andersson, H.A.; Brandt, P.A. van den

    2001-01-01

    Background: Plant sterols in vegetable foods might prevent colorectal cancer. Objective: The objective was to study plant sterol intakes in relation to colorectal cancer risk in an epidemiologic study. Design: The study was performed within the framework of the Netherlands Cohort Study on Diet and

  20. Systems Engineering Design Via Experimental Operation Research: Complex Organizational Metric for Programmatic Risk Environments (COMPRE)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mog, Robert A.

    1999-01-01

    Unique and innovative graph theory, neural network, organizational modeling, and genetic algorithms are applied to the design and evolution of programmatic and organizational architectures. Graph theory representations of programs and organizations increase modeling capabilities and flexibility, while illuminating preferable programmatic/organizational design features. Treating programs and organizations as neural networks results in better system synthesis, and more robust data modeling. Organizational modeling using covariance structures enhances the determination of organizational risk factors. Genetic algorithms improve programmatic evolution characteristics, while shedding light on rulebase requirements for achieving specified technological readiness levels, given budget and schedule resources. This program of research improves the robustness and verifiability of systems synthesis tools, including the Complex Organizational Metric for Programmatic Risk Environments (COMPRE).

  1. An evaluation of venous thromboembolic risk in acutely ill medical patients immobilized at home: the AT-HOME Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haas, Sylvia K; Hach-Wunderle, Viola; Mader, Frank H; Ruster, Katherine; Paar, Wilhelm D

    2007-01-01

    Many risk factors for venous thromboembolism (VTE) in hospitalized medical patients are also present in medical outpatients. VTE prevention represents an important challenge for physicians treating patients at home. The AT-HOME study was a prospective cross-sectional observational study designed to assess awareness of the risk of VTE in immobilized acutely ill medical outpatients among German physicians, many of whom were participating in a national Continuing Medical Education (CME) program designed to raise awareness of VTE. The study involved 1210 medical patients who were acutely confined to bed at home. Physicians performed a subjective assessment of VTE risk, which was rated on a 10-point scale (1 = very low risk; 10 = very high risk). The risk of VTE was also assessed retrospectively by using a scorecard developed for use in hospitalized medical patients. Of the 1210 patients, 198 (16%) had risk scores of 0-4, 319 (26%) had scores of 5 or 6, and 693 (57%) had scores > or =7. Overall, 966 patients (80%) received thromboprophylaxis. The proportion of patients receiving thromboprophylaxis was 0% to 47% in risk score groups 0-4, 76% to 85% in groups 5 and 6, and 90% to 100% in risk score groups 7-10. In the retrospective assessment of VTE risk, 74% of patients were at high risk, 15% were at intermediate risk, and 11% were at low risk. The proportions of patients receiving thromboprophylaxis in these groups were 87%, 61%, and 55%, respectively. The involvement of physicians in educational activities focusing on VTE awareness appeared to create awareness of the risks of VTE in acutely ill medical outpatients.

  2. Valdez air health study - Exposure monitoring and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murray, D.R.; Mikkelsen, R.

    1991-01-01

    In Valdez, Alaska there is concern about exposure of the public to benzene and other light hydrocarbons emitted during the loading of tankers from the Trans-Alaska Pipeline. As part of an overall risk assessment, the Valdez Air Health Study, a personal, indoor and outdoor air sampling program patterned after EPA's TEMA Study was designed and carried out. A unique feature of the study is that, during sampling periods, SF 6 tracer was released at the terminal site to represent terminal hydrocarbon emissions to provide a basis for directly quantitating any contribution of terminal emissions to personal exposure. Sixty citizens at Valdez were selected to wear vests containing sampling equipment for 24-hour periods summer and winter. At the homes of 30 of the participants simultaneous indoor and outdoor samples for hydrocarbons and tracer were collected during the period that each participant collected personal air samples. The paper reviews the design of the program, details of the procedures used, results of the August, 1990 program and preliminary results from the February-March, 1991 program

  3. Physical activity, metabolic syndrome, and coronary risk: the EPIC-Norfolk prospective population study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Broekhuizen, Lysette N.; Boekholdt, S. Matthijs; Arsenault, Benoit J.; Despres, Jean-Pierre; Stroes, Erik S. G.; Kastelein, John J. P.; Khaw, Kay-Tee; Wareham, Nicholas J.

    2011-01-01

    Objective: We investigated the association between physical activity, metabolic syndrome (MS), and the risk of future coronary heart disease (CHD) and mortality due to CHD in middle-aged men and women. Design: Prospective cohort study. Subjects: A total of 10,134 men and women aged 45-79 years at

  4. Uncertainties in Early-Stage Capital Cost Estimation of Process Design – A Case Study on Biorefinery Design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cheali, Peam; Gernaey, Krist V.; Sin, Gürkan

    2015-01-01

    Capital investment, next to the product demand, sales, and production costs, is one of the key metrics commonly used for project evaluation and feasibility assessment. Estimating the investment costs of a new product/process alternative during early-stage design is a challenging task, which is especially relevant in biorefinery research where information about new technologies and experience with new technologies is limited. A systematic methodology for uncertainty analysis of cost data is proposed that employs: (a) bootstrapping as a regression method when cost data are available; and, (b) the Monte Carlo technique as an error propagation method based on expert input when cost data are not available. Four well-known models for early-stage cost estimation are reviewed and analyzed using the methodology. The significance of uncertainties of cost data for early-stage process design is highlighted using the synthesis and design of a biorefinery as a case study. The impact of uncertainties in cost estimation on the identification of optimal processing paths is indeed found to be profound. To tackle this challenge, a comprehensive techno-economic risk analysis framework is presented to enable robust decision-making under uncertainties. One of the results using order-of-magnitude estimates shows that the production of diethyl ether and 1,3-butadiene are the most promising with the lowest economic risks (among the alternatives considered) of 0.24 MM$/a and 4.6 MM$/a, respectively.

  5. Uncertainties in Early Stage Capital Cost Estimation of Process Design – A case study on biorefinery design

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gurkan eSin

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Capital investment, next to the product demand, sales and production costs, is one of the key metrics commonly used for project evaluation and feasibility assessment. Estimating the investment costs of a new product/process alternative during early stage design is a challenging task. This is especially important in biorefinery research, where available information and experiences with new technologies is limited. A systematic methodology for uncertainty analysis of cost data is proposed that employs (a Bootstrapping as a regression method when cost data is available and (b the Monte Carlo technique as an error propagation method based on expert input when cost data is not available. Four well-known models for early stage cost estimation are reviewed an analyzed using the methodology. The significance of uncertainties of cost data for early stage process design is highlighted using the synthesis and design of a biorefinery as a case study. The impact of uncertainties in cost estimation on the identification of optimal processing paths is found to be profound. To tackle this challenge, a comprehensive techno-economic risk analysis framework is presented to enable robust decision making under uncertainties. One of the results using an order-of-magnitude estimate shows that the production of diethyl ether and 1,3-butadiene are the most promising with economic risks of 0.24 MM$/a and 4.6 MM$/a due to uncertainties in cost estimations, respectively.

  6. Uncertainties in Early-Stage Capital Cost Estimation of Process Design – A Case Study on Biorefinery Design

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cheali, Peam; Gernaey, Krist V.; Sin, Gürkan, E-mail: gsi@kt.dtu.dk [Department of Chemical and Biochemical Engineering, Technical University of Denmark, Lyngby (Denmark)

    2015-02-06

    Capital investment, next to the product demand, sales, and production costs, is one of the key metrics commonly used for project evaluation and feasibility assessment. Estimating the investment costs of a new product/process alternative during early-stage design is a challenging task, which is especially relevant in biorefinery research where information about new technologies and experience with new technologies is limited. A systematic methodology for uncertainty analysis of cost data is proposed that employs: (a) bootstrapping as a regression method when cost data are available; and, (b) the Monte Carlo technique as an error propagation method based on expert input when cost data are not available. Four well-known models for early-stage cost estimation are reviewed and analyzed using the methodology. The significance of uncertainties of cost data for early-stage process design is highlighted using the synthesis and design of a biorefinery as a case study. The impact of uncertainties in cost estimation on the identification of optimal processing paths is indeed found to be profound. To tackle this challenge, a comprehensive techno-economic risk analysis framework is presented to enable robust decision-making under uncertainties. One of the results using order-of-magnitude estimates shows that the production of diethyl ether and 1,3-butadiene are the most promising with the lowest economic risks (among the alternatives considered) of 0.24 MM$/a and 4.6 MM$/a, respectively.

  7. A National Surveillance Survey on Noncommunicable Disease Risk Factors: Suriname Health Study Protocol

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smits, Christel CF; Jaddoe, Vincent WV; Hofman, Albert; Toelsie, Jerry R

    2015-01-01

    Background Noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are the leading cause of death in low- and middle-income countries. Therefore, the surveillance of risk factors has become an issue of major importance for planning and implementation of preventive measures. Unfortunately, in these countries data on NCDs and their risk factors are limited. This also prevails in Suriname, a middle-income country of the Caribbean, with a multiethnic/multicultural population living in diverse residential areas. For these reasons, “The Suriname Health Study” was designed. Objective The main objective of this study is to estimate the prevalence of NCD risk factors, including metabolic syndrome, hypertension, and diabetes in Suriname. Differences between specific age groups, sexes, ethnic groups, and geographical areas will be emphasized. In addition, risk groups will be identified and targeted actions will be designed and evaluated. Methods In this study, several methodologies were combined. A stratified multistage cluster sample was used to select the participants of 6 ethnic groups (Hindustani, Creole, Javanese, Maroon, Chinese, Amerindians, and mixed) divided into 5 age groups (between 15 and 65 years) who live in urban/rural areas or the hinterland. A standardized World Health Organization STEPwise approach to surveillance questionnaire was adapted and used to obtain information about demographic characteristics, lifestyle, and risk factors. Physical examinations were performed to measure blood pressure, height, weight, and waist circumference. Biochemical analysis of collected blood samples evaluated the levels of glucose, high-density-lipoprotein cholesterol, total cholesterol, and triglycerides. Statistical analysis will be used to identify the burden of modifiable and unmodifiable risk factors in the aforementioned subgroups. Subsequently, tailor-made interventions will be prepared and their effects will be evaluated. Results The data as collected allow for national inference and

  8. Complementary feeding and the early origins of obesity risk: a study protocol

    OpenAIRE

    Muniandy, Naleena Devi; Allotey, Pascale A; Soyiri, Ireneous N; Reidpath, Daniel D

    2016-01-01

    Introduction The rise in the prevalence of childhood obesity worldwide calls for an intervention earlier in the life cycle. Studies show that nutrition during early infancy may contribute to later obesity. Hence, this study is designed to determine if the variation in complementary feeding practices poses a risk for the development of obesity later in life. A mixed methods approach will be used in conducting this study. Methods and analysis The target participants are infants born from Januar...

  9. Prevalence of risk factors for stuttering among boys: analytical cross-sectional study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristiane Moço Canhetti Oliveira

    Full Text Available CONTEXT AND OBJECTIVE:There have been few studies on the risk factors for subgroups of stuttering. The aim of this study was to characterize the risk factors for developmental familial stuttering among boys who stutter and who do not stutter, such as disfluency types, associated quality and communication factors, emotional and physical stress, familial attitudes and personal reactions.DESIGN AND SETTING:Analytical cross-sectional study with a control group, performed at the Fluency Studies Laboratory of the Department of Speech and Hearing Disorders of a public university.METHODS: The parents of 40 age-matched stuttering and non-stuttering boys took part in this study. The participants were divided into two groups: stuttering children (SC and non-stuttering children (NSC, with ages between 6 years 0 months and 11 years 11 months. Initially, all of the participants underwent a fluency assessment and then data were gathered using the Protocol for the Risk of Developmental Stuttering.RESULTS:There were no differences in the physical stress distribution factors and personal reactions between the groups. Inappropriate familial attitudes were presented by 95% of the SC and 30% of the NSC. Four risk factors analyzed were not shown by the NSC, namely stuttering-like disfluency, quality factors, physical stress and emotional stresses.CONCLUSIONS:The findings suggest that the presence of stuttering-like disfluency, associated quality and communication factors, emotional stress and inappropriate family attitudes are important risk factors for familial developmental stuttering among boys.

  10. Improving the analysis of designed studies by combining statistical modelling with study design information

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Thissen, U.; Wopereis, S.; Berg, S.A.A. van den; Bobeldijk, I.; Kleemann, R.; Kooistra, T.; Dijk, K.W. van; Ommen, B. van; Smilde, A.K.

    2009-01-01

    Background: In the fields of life sciences, so-called designed studies are used for studying complex biological systems. The data derived from these studies comply with a study design aimed at generating relevant information while diminishing unwanted variation (noise). Knowledge about the study

  11. Reflecting Societal Values in Designing Flood Risk Management Strategies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adamson Mark

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In 2006, the Office of Public Works (OPW began the National Catchment-based Flood Risk Assessment and Management (CFRAM Programme through a series of pilot studies. A Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA Framework was developed through the pilot studies that integrated a number of objectives related to a wide range of potential impacts and benefits into the core of process of appraising and selecting suitable flood risk management measures for a given area or location, and then for prioritising national investments for different schemes and projects. This MCA Framework, that provides a systematic process of developing a non-monetised but numerical indicator of benefit and impact, has since been implemented nationally in the preparation of the Flood Risk Management Plans (FRMPs. A key feature of the MCA is that it should represent societal values. To this end, nationally representative quantitative research was undertaken to determine global weights that reflect the perceived importance of each of the objectives for reducing economic, social and environmental / cultural risks in flood management strategies. Saaty’s Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP, in conjunction with a pair-wise comparison of criteria relating to these risks, was utilised to determine weights. In excess of 1,000 structured interviews were completed where the relative importance of these objectives were assessed using a seven-point scale. The weighting given to each of the 13 specific objectives identified broadly followed expectations, with risk to people followed by risk to homes and properties being respectively the first and second most important, although some were given greater or less weighting than expected. The national application of the MCA Framework, using the weighted objectives based on this process, through the CFRAM Programme has generally lead to the identification of appropriate and, based on local consultation, acceptable options for each community.

  12. A quality by design (QbD case study on enteric-coated pellets: Screening of critical variables and establishment of design space at laboratory scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shuling Kan

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The study aims to prepare naproxen enteric-coated pellets (NAP-ECPs by fluid-bed coating using QbD principle. Risk assessment was firstly performed by using failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA methodology. A Plackett–Burman design was then used for assessment of the most important variables affecting enteric-coated pellets characteristics. A Box–Behnken design was subsequently used for investigating the main, interactive, and quadratic effects of these variables on the response. By FMEA we discovered that eight factors should be considered to be high/important risk variables as compared with others. The responses of acid resistance and cumulative drug release were taken as critical quality attributes (CQAs. Pareto ranking analyses indicated that the coating weight gain (X7, triethyl citrate percentage (X1 and glycerol monostearate percentage (X2 were the most significant factors affecting the selected responses out of the eight high-risk variables. Optimization with response surface method (RSM further fully clarified the relationship between X7, X1, X2 and CQAs, and design space was established based on the constraints set on the responses. Due to the extreme coincidence of the predicted value generated by model with the observed value, the accuracy and robustness of the model were confirmed. It could be concluded that a promising NAP-ECPs was successfully designed using QbD approach in a laboratory scale.

  13. Risk-based determination of design pressure of LNG fuel storage tanks based on dynamic process simulation combined with Monte Carlo method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noh, Yeelyong; Chang, Kwangpil; Seo, Yutaek; Chang, Daejun

    2014-01-01

    This study proposes a new methodology that combines dynamic process simulation (DPS) and Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) to determine the design pressure of fuel storage tanks on LNG-fueled ships. Because the pressure of such tanks varies with time, DPS is employed to predict the pressure profile. Though equipment failure and subsequent repair affect transient pressure development, it is difficult to implement these features directly in the process simulation due to the randomness of the failure. To predict the pressure behavior realistically, MCS is combined with DPS. In MCS, discrete events are generated to create a lifetime scenario for a system. The combination of MCS with long-term DPS reveals the frequency of the exceedance pressure. The exceedance curve of the pressure provides risk-based information for determining the design pressure based on risk acceptance criteria, which may vary with different points of view. - Highlights: • The realistic operation scenario of the LNG FGS system is estimated by MCS. • In repeated MCS trials, the availability of the FGS system is evaluated. • The realistic pressure profile is obtained by the proposed methodology. • The exceedance curve provides risk-based information for determining design pressure

  14. The German risk study for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Birkhofer, A.

    1980-01-01

    In August 1979 results of the ''German Risk Study for Nuclear Power Plants'' were published. The Main Report, in which approach and results of the study are documented, has been available since the end of 1979. It was the charter of the study - which was performed on behalf of the Minister of Research and Technology of the Federal Republic of Germany - to apply as far as possible the methods of the US Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) to German plant and site conditions. A direct transfer of the results was not deemed justified, mainly for the following reasons: There is quite a number of differences between the design of the reference plants of WASH-1400 (Surry-1, Peach Bottom-2) and German nuclear power plants. The mean population density in the Federal Republic of Germany is more than ten times of the United States. In the vicinity of nuclear power plants the ratio is about 3:1. To calculate the collective risk resulting from reactor accidents, a total of 25 plants at 19 different sites in the Federal Republic of Germany were considered. This included all plants with 600 MW or more electrical output, which were in operation, under construction or in licensing process by July 1, 1977. As an approximation to the real situation, it has been assumed that all 25 plants are technically identical to the reference plant

  15. Study of International Standards of Risk Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dykan Volodymyr L.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The goal of the article lies in the study of existing international standards of risk management, an important factor of improvement of risk management in domestic corporations and enterprises and development of recommendations on application of international standards in Ukraine, in particular, within the framework of building corporate systems of risk management. The conducted study shows that approaches on organisation of the process of risk management, used in standards of risk management, are of general character and differ with the degree of detailing. Their undoubted value in development of risk management in Ukraine is identification of a general direction of building corporate systems of risk management in practice. The said approaches at the national and corporate levels of standardisation in Ukraine within the framework of building corporate systems of risk management would allow improvement of risk management in corporations and enterprises. The prospect of further studies of domestic specialists in the field of risk management is development of the domestic standard of risk management with consideration of modern domestic specific features of development of risk management in Ukraine and leading foreign experience.

  16. Measurement of total risk of spontaneous abortion: the virtue of conditional risk estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Modvig, J; Schmidt, L; Damsgaard, M T

    1990-01-01

    The concepts, methods, and problems of measuring spontaneous abortion risk are reviewed. The problems touched on include the process of pregnancy verification, the changes in risk by gestational age and maternal age, and the presence of induced abortions. Methods used in studies of spontaneous...... abortion risk include biochemical assays as well as life table technique, although the latter appears in two different forms. The consequences of using either of these are discussed. It is concluded that no study design so far is appropriate for measuring the total risk of spontaneous abortion from early...... conception to the end of the 27th week. It is proposed that pregnancy may be considered to consist of two or three specific periods and that different study designs should concentrate on measuring the conditional risk within each period. A careful estimate using this principle leads to an estimate of total...

  17. Completion plug design provides improved operational efficiency and safety while minimizing environmental risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dum, Frank [T.D. Williamson, Inc., Tulsa, OK (United States)

    2012-07-01

    Pipeline repair standards have been raised with recent improvements for completion plugs when used with a brand new setting tool, resulting in lower environmental risks, improved operational efficiency and safety. The design changes were originally made to serve in an offshore environment in order to minimize the diver's time in the water and simplify steps by the diver to execute pipeline repair operations in cold, dark conditions. Enhancements in the design include fewer number of fittings, plugs, o-rings and gaskets isolating the pipeline product found inside the pipe. The new design is a step toward meeting strict operational and safety standards demanded in the field of pipeline maintenance and repair. (author)

  18. Preliminary design study of advanced composite blade and hub and nonmechanical control system for the tilt-rotor aircraft. Volume 1: Engineering studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexander, H. R.; Smith, K. E.; Mcveigh, M. A.; Dixon, P. G.; Mcmanus, B. L.

    1979-01-01

    Composite structures technology is applied in a preliminary design study of advanced technology blades and hubs for the XV-15 tilt rotor research demonstrator aircraft. Significant improvements in XV-15 hover and cruise performance are available using blades designed for compatibility with the existing aircraft, i.e., blade installation would not require modification of the airframe, hub or upper controls. Provision of a low risk nonmechanical control system was also studied, and a development specification is given.

  19. Quantifying the underestimation of relative risks from genome-wide association studies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chris Spencer

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Genome-wide association studies (GWAS have identified hundreds of associated loci across many common diseases. Most risk variants identified by GWAS will merely be tags for as-yet-unknown causal variants. It is therefore possible that identification of the causal variant, by fine mapping, will identify alleles with larger effects on genetic risk than those currently estimated from GWAS replication studies. We show that under plausible assumptions, whilst the majority of the per-allele relative risks (RR estimated from GWAS data will be close to the true risk at the causal variant, some could be considerable underestimates. For example, for an estimated RR in the range 1.2-1.3, there is approximately a 38% chance that it exceeds 1.4 and a 10% chance that it is over 2. We show how these probabilities can vary depending on the true effects associated with low-frequency variants and on the minor allele frequency (MAF of the most associated SNP. We investigate the consequences of the underestimation of effect sizes for predictions of an individual's disease risk and interpret our results for the design of fine mapping experiments. Although these effects mean that the amount of heritability explained by known GWAS loci is expected to be larger than current projections, this increase is likely to explain a relatively small amount of the so-called "missing" heritability.

  20. Parental Divorce, Familial Risk for Depression, and Psychopathology in Offspring: A Three-Generation Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vousoura, Eleni; Verdeli, Helen; Warner, Virginia; Wickramaratne, Priya; Baily, Charles David Richard

    2012-10-01

    Research suggests a link between parental divorce and negative child outcomes; however, the presence of parental depression may confound this relationship. Studies exploring the simultaneous effects of depression and parents' divorce on the adjustment of their children are scarce and rarely have a longitudinal design. This is the first three-generation study of the relative effects of depression and divorce on offspring psychopathology, based on data from a 25-year longitudinal study with families at high and low risk for depression. One hundred seventy-eight grandchildren (mean age = 13.9 years) of depressed and nondepressed parents and grandparents were evaluated by raters blind to their parents' and grandparents' clinical status. We found that in both low and high-risk children, divorce had a limited impact on child adjustment over and above familial risk for depression. Divorce had a significant effect on child outcomes only among high-risk grandchildren with a depressed grandparent and non-depressed parents, with this group showing a threefold risk for anxiety disorders. Results support previous findings suggesting that familial risk for depression largely overshadows the effect of parental divorce on child psychopathology. Possible reasons for the lack of association between divorce and child psychopathology among low-risk offspring are discussed.

  1. What is the purpose of risk studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Birkhofer, A.

    1986-01-01

    Over the past few years, more or less comprehensive risk analyses have been carried out for numerous nuclear power plants, especially in the USA. The first risk studies conducted, especially the Rasmussen Study and the 'German Risk Study,' investigated sequences of accidents up to their environmental impacts. Risk studies today are focused mostly on assessments of technical safety, which is why they are extended only as far as the determination of core meltdown frequencies or radionuclide releases. Studies of this type are also called probabilistic safety analyses. (orig.) [de

  2. Cardiovascular and metabolic syndrome risk among men with and without erectile dysfunction: case-control study

    OpenAIRE

    Zambon, João Paulo; Mendonça, Rafaela Rosalba de; Wroclawski, Marcelo Langer; Karam Junior, Amir; Santos, Raul D.; Carvalho, José Antonio Maluf de; Wroclawski, Eric Roger

    2010-01-01

    CONTEXT AND OBJECTIVE: Erectile dysfunction has been associated with cardiovascular diseases. The aim here was to evaluate cardiovascular risk through the Framingham Risk Score (FRS) criteria, C-reactive protein (CRP) assays and presence of metabolic syndrome (MS) in men with and without erectile dysfunction diagnosed within a healthcare program. DESIGN AND SETTING: A retrospective case-control study was conducted. The patients were selected from a healthcare program at the Hospital Israelita...

  3. Job rotation designed to prevent musculoskeletal disorders and control risk in manufacturing industries: A systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Padula, Rosimeire Simprini; Comper, Maria Luiza Caires; Sparer, Emily H; Dennerlein, Jack T

    2017-01-01

    To better understand job rotation in the manufacturing industry, we completed a systematic review asking the following questions: 1) How do job-rotation programs impact work-related musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs) and related risk control for these MSDs, as well as psychosocial factors? and 2) How best should the job rotation programs be designed? We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, Business Source Premier, ISI Web of Knowledge, CINAHL, PsyINFO, Scopus, and SciELO databases for articles published in peer-reviewed journals. Eligible studies were examined by two independent reviewers for relevance (population of manufacturing workers, outcomes of musculoskeletal disorders, physical factors, psychosocial factors, and strategies used in job-rotation implantation) and methodological quality rating. From 10,809 potential articles, 71 were read for full text analysis. Of the 14 studies included for data extraction, two were non-randomized control trial studies, one was a case-control study, and 11 were cross-sectional comparisons. Only one, with a case-control design, was scored with good methodological quality. Currently, weak evidence exists supporting job rotation as a strategy for the prevention and control of musculoskeletal disorders. Job rotation did not appear to reduce the exposure of physical risk factors; yet, there are positive correlations between job rotation and higher job satisfaction. Worker training has been described as a crucial component of a successful job-rotation program. The studies reported a range of parameters used to implement and measure job-rotation programs. More rigorous studies are needed to better understand the full impact of job rotation on production and health. CRD42014013319. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Specialist Cohort Event Monitoring studies: a new study method for risk management in pharmacovigilance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Layton, Deborah; Shakir, Saad A W

    2015-02-01

    The evolving regulatory landscape has heightened the need for innovative, proactive, efficient and more meaningful solutions for 'real-world' post-authorization safety studies (PASS) that not only align with risk management objectives to gather additional safety monitoring information or assess a pattern of drug utilization, but also satisfy key regulatory requirements for marketing authorization holder risk management planning and execution needs. There is a need for data capture across the primary care and secondary care interface, or for exploring use of new medicines in secondary care to support conducting PASS. To fulfil this need, event monitoring has evolved. The Specialist Cohort Event Monitoring (SCEM) study is a new application that enables a cohort of patients prescribed a medicine in the hospital and secondary care settings to be monitored. The method also permits the inclusion of a comparator cohort of patients receiving standard care, or another counterfactual comparator group, to be monitored concurrently, depending on the study question. The approach has been developed in parallel with the new legislative requirement for pharmaceutical companies to undertake a risk management plan as part of post-authorization safety monitoring. SCEM studies recognize that the study population comprises those patients who may have treatment initiated under the care of specialist health care professionals and who are more complex in terms of underlying disease, co-morbidities and concomitant medications than the general disease population treated in primary care. The aims of this paper are to discuss the SCEM new-user study design, rationale and features that aim to address possible bias (such as selection bias) and current applications.

  5. Dietary Fat Intake and Risk of Gastric Cancer: A Meta-Analysis of Observational Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xiao; Meng, Qingyang; Xi, Qiulei; Zhuang, Qiulin; Han, Yusong; Gao, Ying; Ding, Qiurong; Wu, Guohao

    2015-01-01

    Background and Objectives Consumption of dietary fat has been reported to be associated with gastric cancer risk, but the results of epidemiologic studies remain inconsistent. We conducted a meta-analysis to summarize the evidence regarding the association between dietary fat intake and gastric cancer risk. Methods A comprehensive search of PubMed and EMBASE was performed to identify observational studies providing quantitative estimates between dietary fat and gastric cancer risk. Random effects model was used to calculate the summary relative risk(SRR) in the highest versus lowest analysis. Categorical dose-response analysis was conducted to quantify the association between dietary fat intake and gastric cancer risk. Heterogeneity among studies was evaluated using I2 and tau2(between study variance)statistics. Subgroup analysis and publication bias analysis were also performed. Results Twenty-two articles were included in the meta-analysis. The SRR for gastric cancer was 1.18 for individuals with highest intake versus lowest intake of total fat (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.999–1.39; n = 28; Pgastric cancer risk were observed. Conclusions Our results suggest that intake of total fat is potentially positively associated with gastric cancer risk, and specific subtypes of fats account for different effects. However, these findings should be confirmed by further well-designed cohort studieswith detailed dietary assessments and strict control of confounders. PMID:26402223

  6. Responsive and resilient supply chain network design under operational and disruption risks with delivery lead-time sensitive customers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fattahi, Mohammad; Govindan, Kannan; Keyvanshokooh, Esmaeil

    2017-01-01

    We address a multi-period supply chain (SC) network design where demands of customers depend on facilities serving them based on their delivery lead-times. Potential customer demands are stochastic, and facilities’ capacity varies randomly because of possible disruptions. Accordingly, we develop...... a multi-stage stochastic program, and model disruptions’ effect on facilities’ capacity. The SC responsiveness risk is limited and, to obtain a resilient network, both mitigation and contingency strategies are exploited. Computational results on a real-life case study and randomly generated problem...... instances demonstrate the model's applicability, risk-measurement policies’ performance, and the influence of mitigation and contingency strategies on SC's resiliency....

  7. PROACT: Iterative Design of a Patient-Centered Visualization for Effective Prostate Cancer Health Risk Communication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hakone, Anzu; Harrison, Lane; Ottley, Alvitta; Winters, Nathan; Gutheil, Caitlin; Han, Paul K J; Chang, Remco

    2017-01-01

    Prostate cancer is the most common cancer among men in the US, and yet most cases represent localized cancer for which the optimal treatment is unclear. Accumulating evidence suggests that the available treatment options, including surgery and conservative treatment, result in a similar prognosis for most men with localized prostate cancer. However, approximately 90% of patients choose surgery over conservative treatment, despite the risk of severe side effects like erectile dysfunction and incontinence. Recent medical research suggests that a key reason is the lack of patient-centered tools that can effectively communicate personalized risk information and enable them to make better health decisions. In this paper, we report the iterative design process and results of developing the PROgnosis Assessment for Conservative Treatment (PROACT) tool, a personalized health risk communication tool for localized prostate cancer patients. PROACT utilizes two published clinical prediction models to communicate the patients' personalized risk estimates and compare treatment options. In collaboration with the Maine Medical Center, we conducted two rounds of evaluations with prostate cancer survivors and urologists to identify the design elements and narrative structure that effectively facilitate patient comprehension under emotional distress. Our results indicate that visualization can be an effective means to communicate complex risk information to patients with low numeracy and visual literacy. However, the visualizations need to be carefully chosen to balance readability with ease of comprehension. In addition, due to patients' charged emotional state, an intuitive narrative structure that considers the patients' information need is critical to aid the patients' comprehension of their risk information.

  8. Natural hazard risk perception of Italian population: case studies along national territory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gravina, Teresita; Tupputi Schinosa, Francesca De Luca; Zuddas, Isabella; Preto, Mattia; Marengo, Angelo; Esposito, Alessandro; Figliozzi, Emanuele; Rapinatore, Matteo

    2015-04-01

    Risk perception is judgment that people make about the characteristics and severity of risks, in last few years risk perception studies focused on provide cognitive elements to communication experts responsible in order to design citizenship information and awareness appropriate strategies. Several authors in order to determine natural hazards risk (Seismic, landslides, cyclones, flood, Volcanic) perception used questionnaires as tool for providing reliable quantitative data and permitting comparison the results with those of similar surveys. In Italy, risk perception studies based on surveys, were also carried out in order to investigate on national importance Natural risk, in particular on Somma-Vesuvio and Phlegrean Fields volcanic Risks, but lacked risk perception studies on local situation distributed on whole national territory. National importance natural hazard were frequently reported by national mass media and there were debate about emergencies civil protection plans, otherwise could be difficult to obtain information on bonded and regional nature natural hazard which were diffuses along National territory. In fact, Italian peninsula was a younger geological area subjected to endogenous phenomena (volcanoes, earthquake) and exogenous phenomena which determine land evolution and natural hazard (landslide, coastal erosion, hydrogeological instability, sinkhole) for population. For this reason we decided to investigate on natural risks perception in different Italian place were natural hazard were taken place but not reported from mass media, as were only local relevant or historical event. We carried out surveys in different Italian place interested by different types of natural Hazard (landslide, coastal erosion, hydrogeological instability, sinkhole, volcanic phenomena and earthquake) and compared results, in order to understand population perception level, awareness and civil protection exercises preparation. Our findings support that risks

  9. Risk management and statistical multivariate analysis approach for design and optimization of satranidazole nanoparticles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dhat, Shalaka; Pund, Swati; Kokare, Chandrakant; Sharma, Pankaj; Shrivastava, Birendra

    2017-01-01

    Rapidly evolving technical and regulatory landscapes of the pharmaceutical product development necessitates risk management with application of multivariate analysis using Process Analytical Technology (PAT) and Quality by Design (QbD). Poorly soluble, high dose drug, Satranidazole was optimally nanoprecipitated (SAT-NP) employing principles of Formulation by Design (FbD). The potential risk factors influencing the critical quality attributes (CQA) of SAT-NP were identified using Ishikawa diagram. Plackett-Burman screening design was adopted to screen the eight critical formulation and process parameters influencing the mean particle size, zeta potential and dissolution efficiency at 30min in pH7.4 dissolution medium. Pareto charts (individual and cumulative) revealed three most critical factors influencing CQA of SAT-NP viz. aqueous stabilizer (Polyvinyl alcohol), release modifier (Eudragit® S 100) and volume of aqueous phase. The levels of these three critical formulation attributes were optimized by FbD within established design space to minimize mean particle size, poly dispersity index, and maximize encapsulation efficiency of SAT-NP. Lenth's and Bayesian analysis along with mathematical modeling of results allowed identification and quantification of critical formulation attributes significantly active on the selected CQAs. The optimized SAT-NP exhibited mean particle size; 216nm, polydispersity index; 0.250, zeta potential; -3.75mV and encapsulation efficiency; 78.3%. The product was lyophilized using mannitol to form readily redispersible powder. X-ray diffraction analysis confirmed the conversion of crystalline SAT to amorphous form. In vitro release of SAT-NP in gradually pH changing media showed 95%) in pH7.4 in next 3h, indicative of burst release after a lag time. This investigation demonstrated effective application of risk management and QbD tools in developing site-specific release SAT-NP by nanoprecipitation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All

  10. Design and baseline characteristics of the PerfectFit study: a multicenter cluster-randomized trial of a lifestyle intervention in employees with increased cardiovascular risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kouwenhoven-Pasmooij, Tessa A; Djikanovic, Bosiljka; Robroek, Suzan J W; Helmhout, Pieter; Burdorf, Alex; Hunink, M G Myriam

    2015-07-28

    The prevalence of unhealthy lifestyles and preventable chronic diseases is high. They lead to disabilities and sickness absence, which might be reduced if health promotion measures were applied. Therefore, we developed the PerfectFit health promotion intervention with a "blended care"-approach, which consists of a web-based health risk assessment (HRA) including tailored and personalized advice, followed by motivational interviewing (MI). We hypothesize that adding MI to a web-based HRA leads to better health outcomes. The objective is to describe the design and baseline characteristics of the PerfectFit study, which is being conducted among employees with high cardiovascular risk in the military workforce, the police organization and an academic hospital. PerfectFit is a cluster randomized controlled trial, consisting of two arms. Based on cardiovascular risk profiling, done between 2012 and 2014, we included employees based on one or more risk factors and motivation to participate. One arm is the 'limited' health program (control) that consists of: (a) an HRA as a decision aid for lifestyle changes, including tailored and personalized advice, and pros and cons of the options, and (b) a newsletter every 3 months. The other arm is the 'extensive' program (intervention), which is additionally offered MI-sessions by trained occupational physicians, 4 face-to-face and 3 by telephone, and is offered more choices of health promotion activities in the HRA. During the follow-up period, participants choose the health promotion activities they personally prefer. After six and twelve months, outcomes will be assessed by online questionnaires. After twelve months the cardiovascular risk profiling will be repeated. The primary outcome is self-reported general health. Secondary outcomes are self-reported work ability, CVD-risk score, sickness absence, productivity loss at work, participation in health promotion activities, changes in lifestyle (smoking, alcohol consumption

  11. A case control study of risk factors associated with female breast cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nazir, N.; Waheed, A.; Farhat, K.; Ismail, M.

    2015-01-01

    To find the association of various risk factors with breast cancer. Study Design: It was a case-control study. Place and Duration of Study: The study was carried out in NORI Hospital Islamabad and Combined Military Hospital Rawalpindi between August, 2013 and February, 2014. Material and Methods: Two hundred breast cancer patients and 200 control subjects were inducted. A short approved and planned questionnaire was used to collect data regarding basic demographic, menstrual and reproductive characteristics of participating females. Cases and controls were then interviewed after taking written consent. Results: Breast cancer patients and control subjects did not differ regarding age (p = 0.15), early menarche (OR for menarche at <13 years vs. ?13=1.3, 95% CI = 0.84 - 2.02), and history of breast cancer in 1st degree relatives did not increase breast cancer risk (OR = 1.0, 95% CI = 0.57 - 1.74). Nulliparous women had significantly higher risk than parous women (OR = 2.43, 95% CI = 1.22 - 4.84) and women with late menopause compared to women with early onset of menopause were also at higher risk for breast cancer (OR for menopause at ? 50 vs. < 50 = 5.16, 95% CI = 2.59 - 10.29). Conclusion: Nulliparity and menopausal age of more than 50 years was associated with increased breast cancer risk. Breast feeding and age less than 25 years at first live birth was not protective against breast cancer. (author)

  12. [Design and Application of High-risk Pregnancy Monitoring & Warning Internet Platform Based on Internet of Things].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Heqing; Zhang, Xiaofeng; Li, Bin

    2017-09-30

    Through illustrating the designing of high-risk pregnancy maternal-fetal monitoring system based on the internet of things, this paper introduced the specific application of using wearable medical devices to provide maternal-fetal mobile medical services. With the help of big data and cloud obstetrics platform, the monitoring and warning network was further improved, the level-to-level administration of high-risk pregnancy was realized, the level of perinatal health care was enhanced and the risk of critical emergency of pregnancy decreased.

  13. Probabilistic relationships in acceptable risk studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benjamin, J.R.

    1977-01-01

    Acceptable risk studies involve uncertainties in future events; consequences and associated values, the acceptability levels, and the future decision environment. Probabilistic procedures afford the basic analytical tool to study the influence of each of these parameters on the acceptable risk decision, including their interrelationships, and combinations. A series of examples are presented in the paper in increasing complexity to illustrate the principles involved and to quantify the relationships to the acceptable risk decision. The basic objective of such studies is to broaden the scientific basis of acceptable risk decision making. It is shown that rationality and consistency in decision making is facilitated by such studies and that rather simple relationships exist in many situations of interest. The variation in criteria associated with an increase in the state of knowledge or change in the level of acceptability is also discussed. (Auth.)

  14. Probabilistic relationships in acceptable risk studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benjamin, J.R.

    1977-01-01

    Acceptable risk studies involve uncertainties in future events: consequences and associated values, the acceptability levels, and the future decision environment. Probabilistic procedures afford the basic analytical tool to study the influence of each of these parameters on the acceptable risk decision, including their interrelationships, and combinations. A series of examples are presented in the paper in increasing complexity to illustrate the principles involved and to quantify the relationships to the acceptable risk decision. The basic objective of such studies is to broaden the scientific basis of acceptable risk decision making. It is shown that rationality and consistency in decision making is facilitated by such studies and that rather simple relationships exist in many situations of interest. The variation in criteria associated with an increase in the state of knowledge or change in the level of acceptability is also discussed

  15. VTE Risk assessment – a prognostic Model: BATER Cohort Study of young women

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Schürmann Rolf

    2005-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Community-based cohort studies are not available that evaluated the predictive power of both clinical and genetic risk factors for venous thromboembolism (VTE. There is, however, clinical need to forecast the likelihood of future occurrence of VTE, at least qualitatively, to support decisions about intensity of diagnostic or preventive measures. Materials and methods A 10-year observation period of the Bavarian Thromboembolic Risk (BATER study, a cohort study of 4337 women (18–55 years, was used to develop a predictive model of VTE based on clinical and genetic variables at baseline (1993. The objective was to prepare a probabilistic scheme that discriminates women with virtually no VTE risk from those at higher levels of absolute VTE risk in the foreseeable future. A multivariate analysis determined which variables at baseline were the best predictors of a future VTE event, provided a ranking according to the predictive power, and permitted to design a simple graphic scheme to assess the individual VTE risk using five predictor variables. Results Thirty-four new confirmed VTEs occurred during the observation period of over 32,000 women-years (WYs. A model was developed mainly based on clinical information (personal history of previous VTE and family history of VTE, age, BMI and one composite genetic risk markers (combining Factor V Leiden and Prothrombin G20210A Mutation. Four levels of increasing VTE risk were arbitrarily defined to map the prevalence in the study population: No/low risk of VTE (61.3%, moderate risk (21.1%, high risk (6.0%, very high risk of future VTE (0.9%. In 10.6% of the population the risk assessment was not possible due to lacking VTE cases. The average incidence rates for VTE in these four levels were: 4.1, 12.3, 47.2, and 170.5 per 104 WYs for no, moderate, high, and very high risk, respectively. Conclusion Our prognostic tool – containing clinical information (and if available also genetic data

  16. A study of nutritional status and high risk behavior of adolescents in Ahmedabad: A Cross Sectional Study

    OpenAIRE

    Mital Prajapati; D.V.Bala; Hemant Tiwari

    2011-01-01

    Background: Adolescence is a distinct age group (10-19 yrs) with complex needs because of physical and psychological development during puberty. Aim: To evaluate adolescents’ nutritional status and high risk behavior. Settings and design: A Cross Sectional study was conducted in West Zone of Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation, Gujarat. Methods & Material: 401 students (10-19years) from 10 schools and colleges surveyed using pretested questionnaire ab...

  17. A risk profile for identifying community-dwelling elderly with a highrisk of recurrent falling: results of a 3-year prospective study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pluym, S.M.F.; Smit, J.H.; Tromp, A.M.; Stel, V.S.; Deeg, D.J.H.; Bouter, L.M.; Lips, P.T.A.M.

    2007-01-01

    Introduction: The aim of the prospective study reported here was to develop a risk profile that can be used to identify community-dwelling elderly at a high risk of recurrent falling. Materials and methods: The study was designed as a 3-year prospective cohort study. A total of 1365

  18. Design and implementation of a risk assessment module in a spatial decision support system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Kaixi; van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim

    2014-05-01

    The spatial decision support system named 'Changes SDSS' is currently under development. The goal of this system is to analyze changing hydro-meteorological hazards and the effect of risk reduction alternatives to support decision makers in choosing the best alternatives. The risk assessment module within the system is to assess the current risk, analyze the risk after implementations of risk reduction alternatives, and analyze the risk in different future years when considering scenarios such as climate change, land use change and population growth. The objective of this work is to present the detailed design and implementation plan of the risk assessment module. The main challenges faced consist of how to shift the risk assessment from traditional desktop software to an open source web-based platform, the availability of input data and the inclusion of uncertainties in the risk analysis. The risk assessment module is developed using Ext JS library for the implementation of user interface on the client side, using Python for scripting, as well as PostGIS spatial functions for complex computations on the server side. The comprehensive consideration of the underlying uncertainties in input data can lead to a better quantification of risk assessment and a more reliable Changes SDSS, since the outputs of risk assessment module are the basis for decision making module within the system. The implementation of this module will contribute to the development of open source web-based modules for multi-hazard risk assessment in the future. This work is part of the "CHANGES SDSS" project, funded by the European Community's 7th Framework Program.

  19. Observational studies in South African mines to mitigate seismic risks: a mid-project progress report

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Durrheim, RJ

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available such as Japan. A 5-year collaborative project entitled "Observational studies in South African mines to mitigate seismic risks" was launched in 2010 to address these risks, drawing on over a century of South African and Japanese research experience... network in the mining districts. Figure 1. Schematic illustration of the research design. Jpn - Japanese researchers; CSIR - Council for Scientific and Industrial Research; CGS - Council for Geoscience The knowledge gained during the course...

  20. Seismic risk analysis in the German risk study phase B

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hasser, D.; Liemersdorf, J.

    1989-01-01

    The paper discusses some aspects of the seismic risk part of the German risk study for nuclear power plants, phase B. First simplified analyses in phase A of the study allowed a rough classification of structures and systems of the PWR reference plant according to their seismic risk contribution. These studies were extended in phase B using improved models for the dynamic analyses of buildings, structures and components as well as for the probabilistic analyses of seismic loading, failure probabilities and event trees. The methodology of deriving probabilistic seismic load descriptions is explained and compared with the methods in phase A of the study and in other studies. Some details of the linear and nonlinear dynamic analyses of structures are reported, in order to demonstrate the influence of different assumptions for material behavior and failure criteria. The probabilistic structural and event tree analyses are discussed with respect to the distribution assumptions, acceptable simplifications, special results for the PWR reference plant and, finally, the influence of model uncertainties

  1. Seismic risk analyses in the German Risk Study, phase B

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hosser, D.; Liemersdorf, H.

    1991-01-01

    The paper discusses some aspects of the seismic risk part of the German Risk Study for Nuclear Power Plants, Phase B. First simplified analyses in Phase A of the study allowed only a rough classification of structures and systems of the PWR reference plant according to their seismic risk contribution. These studies were extended in Phase B using improved models for the dynamic analyses of buildings, structures and components as well as for the probabilistic analyses of seismic loading, failure probabilities and event trees. The methodology of deriving probabilistic seismic load descriptions is explained and compared with the methods in Phase A of the study and in other studies. Some details of the linear and nonlinear dynamic analyses of structures are reported in order to demonstrate the influence of different assumptions for material behaviour and failure criteria. The probabilistic structural and event tree analyses are discussed with respect to distribution assumptions, acceptable simplifications and model uncertainties. Some results for the PWR reference plant are given. (orig.)

  2. A new Volcanic managEment Risk Database desIgn (VERDI): Application to El Hierro Island (Canary Islands)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartolini, S.; Becerril, L.; Martí, J.

    2014-11-01

    One of the most important issues in modern volcanology is the assessment of volcanic risk, which will depend - among other factors - on both the quantity and quality of the available data and an optimum storage mechanism. This will require the design of purpose-built databases that take into account data format and availability and afford easy data storage and sharing, and will provide for a more complete risk assessment that combines different analyses but avoids any duplication of information. Data contained in any such database should facilitate spatial and temporal analysis that will (1) produce probabilistic hazard models for future vent opening, (2) simulate volcanic hazards and (3) assess their socio-economic impact. We describe the design of a new spatial database structure, VERDI (Volcanic managEment Risk Database desIgn), which allows different types of data, including geological, volcanological, meteorological, monitoring and socio-economic information, to be manipulated, organized and managed. The root of the question is to ensure that VERDI will serve as a tool for connecting different kinds of data sources, GIS platforms and modeling applications. We present an overview of the database design, its components and the attributes that play an important role in the database model. The potential of the VERDI structure and the possibilities it offers in regard to data organization are here shown through its application on El Hierro (Canary Islands). The VERDI database will provide scientists and decision makers with a useful tool that will assist to conduct volcanic risk assessment and management.

  3. Indoor radon and risk of lung cancer: an epidemiological study in Finland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruosteenoja, E.

    1991-03-01

    The main aim of the present study was to establish whether high radon concentrations in dwellings in Finland had increased the risk of lung cancer. Previous studies had shown an association between the α-active radon daughters and elevated lung cancer risk among miners. Convincing evidence of the risk among the general population exposed to radon indoors was, however, lacking. A descriptive analysis was first conducted in an area in southern Finland with high indoor radon exposure. In 18 rural municipalities this analysis yielded no significant correlation between the average radon exposure and incidence of male lung cancer. A case-control study within a cohort of the same rural population was then designed. The data included 238 male cases of lung cancer diagnosed in 1980-85 and 434 controls (390 smokers and 44 nonsmokers) from the male population. Radon exposure was measured, when possible, in all the dwellings occupied by a case or control in 1950-1975. Measurements were available for the total 25-year period, or for a proportion of it, for 164 cases and 334 controls; for the rest only estimates were available. In spite of the fact that the controls were mainly selected among smokers, the amount smoked still appeared to be the most important lung cancer risk factor in the data, the risk increasing linearly with the quantity of cigarettes smoked in a lifetime. The risk of lung cancer was not associated with the radon exposure level when the whole data were studied. In heavy smokers, however, a positive though not significant, effect on the risk from radon exposure was found. In the range of uncertainty the findings do not conflict with most of those observed among miners or the general population so far. (orig.)

  4. [Cost]effectiveness of withdrawal of fall-risk increasing drugs versus conservative treatment in older fallers: design of a multicenter randomized controlled trial (IMPROveFALL-study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mattace-Raso Francesco US

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Background Fall incidents represent an increasing public health problem in aging societies worldwide. A major risk factor for falls is the use of fall-risk increasing drugs. The primary aim of the study is to compare the effect of a structured medication assessment including the withdrawal of fall-risk increasing drugs on the number of new falls versus 'care as usual' in older adults presenting at the Emergency Department after a fall. Methods/Design A prospective, multi-center, randomized controlled trial will be conducted in hospitals in the Netherlands. Persons aged ≥65 years who visit the Emergency Department due to a fall are invited to participate in this trial. All patients receive a full geriatric assessment at the research outpatient clinic. Patients are randomized between a structured medication assessment including withdrawal of fall-risk increasing drugs and 'care as usual'. A 3-monthly falls calendar is used for assessing the number of falls, fallers and associated injuries over a one-year follow-up period. Measurements will be at three, six, nine, and twelve months and include functional outcome, healthcare consumption, socio-demographic characteristics, and clinical information. After twelve months a second visit to the research outpatient clinic will be performed, and adherence to the new medication regimen in the intervention group will be measured. The primary outcome will be the incidence of new falls. Secondary outcome measurements are possible health effects of medication withdrawal, health-related quality of life (Short Form-12 and EuroQol-5D, costs, and cost-effectiveness of the intervention. Data will be analyzed using an intention-to-treat analysis. Discussion The successful completion of this trial will provide evidence on the effectiveness of withdrawal of fall-risk increasing drugs in older patients as a method for falls reduction. Trial Registration The trial is registered in the Netherlands Trial Register (NTR1593

  5. Design of a trial-based economic evaluation on the cost-effectiveness of employability interventions among work disabled employees or employees at risk of work disability: The CASE-study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Noben Cindy YG

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In the Netherlands, absenteeism and reduced productivity due to work disability lead to high yearly costs reaching almost 5% of the gross national product. To reduce the economic burden of sick leave and reduced productivity, different employability interventions for work-disabled employees or employees at risk of work disability have been developed. Within this study, called 'CASE-study' (Cost-effectiveness Analysis of Sustainable Employability, five different employability interventions directed at work disabled employees with divergent health complaints will be analysed on their effectiveness and cost-effectiveness. This paper describes a consistent and transparent methodological design to do so. Methods/design Per employability intervention 142 participants are needed whereof approximately 66 participants receiving the intervention will be compared with 66 participants receiving usual care. Based on the intervention-specific characteristics, a randomized control trial or a quasi-experiment with match-criteria will be conducted. Notwithstanding the study design, eligible participants will be employees aged 18 to 63, working at least 12 h per week, and at risk of work disability, or already work-disabled due to medical restrictions. The primary outcome will be the duration of sick leave. Secondary outcomes are health status and quality of life. Outcomes will be assessed at baseline and then 6, 12 and 18 months later. Economic costs will consist of healthcare costs and cost of lost production due to work disability, and will be evaluated from a societal perspective. Discussion The CASE-study is the first to conduct economic evaluations of multiple different employability interventions based on a similar methodological framework. The cost-effectiveness results for every employability intervention will be published in 2014, but the methods, strengths and weaknesses of the study protocol are discussed in this paper. To

  6. Youth suicide attempts and the dose-response relationship to parental risk factors: a population-based study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, E; Goldney, R D; Beautrai, A L

    2011-01-01

    BACKGROUND: There is a lack of specific knowledge about the dose-response effect of multiple parental risk factors for suicide attempts among children and adolescents. The aim of this study was to determine the dose-response effect of multiple parental risk factors on an offspring's risk for suic......BACKGROUND: There is a lack of specific knowledge about the dose-response effect of multiple parental risk factors for suicide attempts among children and adolescents. The aim of this study was to determine the dose-response effect of multiple parental risk factors on an offspring's risk...... for suicide attempt.MethodWe designed a population-based two-generation nested case-control study and used Danish register data. A population of 403 431 individuals born between 1983 and 1989 was sampled. Among these, 3465 (0.8%) were registered as having had a suicide attempt. Twenty controls were matched...... to each case and a link to the offspring's biological parents was established. RESULTS: There was a dose-response relationship between the number of exposures and the risk of suicide attempts, with the increased risk seeming to be a multiplicative effect. Parental suicide, suicide attempt, psychiatric...

  7. Seismic fragilities for nuclear power plant risk studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kennedy, R.P.; Ravindra, M.K.

    1983-01-01

    Seismic fragilities of critical structures and equipment are developed as families of conditional failure frequency curves plotted against peak ground acceleration. The procedure is based on available data combined with judicious extrapolation of design information on plant structures and equipment. Representative values of fragility parameters for typical modern nuclear power plants are provided. Based on the fragility evaluation for about a dozen nuclear power plants, it is proposed that unnecessary conservatism existing in current seismic design practice could be removed by properly accounting for inelastic energy absorption capabilities of structures. The paper discusses the key contributors to seismic risk and the significance of possible correlation between component failures and potential design and construction errors

  8. Trajectory Design to Mitigate Risk on the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) Mission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dichmann, Donald

    2016-01-01

    The Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) will employ a highly eccentric Earth orbit, in 2:1 lunar resonance, reached with a lunar flyby preceded by 3.5 phasing loops. The TESS mission has limited propellant and several orbit constraints. Based on analysis and simulation, we have designed the phasing loops to reduce delta-V and to mitigate risk due to maneuver execution errors. We have automated the trajectory design process and use distributed processing to generate and to optimize nominal trajectories, check constraint satisfaction, and finally model the effects of maneuver errors to identify trajectories that best meet the mission requirements.

  9. PARS risk charts: A 10-year study of risk assessment for cardiovascular diseases in Eastern Mediterranean Region.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nizal Sarrafzadegan

    Full Text Available This study was designed to develop a risk assessment chart for the clinical management and prevention of the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD in Iranian population, which is vital for developing national prevention programs. The Isfahan Cohort Study (ICS is a population-based prospective study of 6504 Iranian adults ≥35 years old, followed-up for ten years, from 2001 to 2010. Behavioral and cardiometabolic risk factors were examined every five years, while biennial follow-ups for the occurrence of the events was performed by phone calls or by verbal autopsy. Among these participants, 5432 (2784 women, 51.3% were CVD free at baseline examination and had at least one follow-up. Cox proportional hazard regression was used to predict the risk of ischemic CVD events, including sudden cardiac death due to unstable angina, myocardial infarction, and stroke. The model fit statistics such as area under the receiver-operating characteristic (AUROC, calibration chi-square and the overall bias were used to assess the model performance. We also tested the Framingham model for comparison. Seven hundred and five CVD events occurred during 49452.8 person-years of follow-up. The event probabilities were calculated and presented color-coded on each gender-specific PARS chart. The AUROC and Harrell's C indices were 0.74 (95% CI, 0.72-0.76 and 0.73, respectively. In the calibration, the Nam-D'Agostino χ2 was 10.82 (p = 0.29. The overall bias of the proposed model was 95.60%. PARS model was also internally validated using cross-validation. The Android app and the Web-based risk assessment tool were also developed as to have an impact on public health. In comparison, the refitted and recalibrated Framingham models, estimated the CVD incidence with the overall bias of 149.60% and 128.23% for men, and 222.70% and 176.07% for women, respectively. In conclusion, the PARS risk assessment chart is a simple, accurate, and well-calibrated tool for predicting a 10-year

  10. Patient centered fall risk awareness perspectives: clinical correlates and fall risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verghese, Joe

    2016-01-01

    Background While objective measures to assess risk of falls in older adults have been established; the value of patient self-reports in the context of falls is not known. Objectives To identify clinical correlates of patient centered fall risk awareness, and their validity for predicting falls. Design Prospective cohort study. Setting and Participants 316 non-demented and ambulatory community-dwelling older adults (mean age 78 years, 55% women). Measurements Fall risk awareness was assessed with a two-item questionnaire, which asked participants about overall likelihood and personal risk of falling over the next 12 months. Incident falls were recorded over study follow-up. Results Fifty-three participants (16.8%) responded positively to the first fall risk awareness question about being likely to have a fall in the next 12 months, and 100 (31.6%) reported being at personal risk of falling over the next 12 months. There was only fair correlation (kappa 0.370) between responses on the two questions. Prior falls and depressive symptoms were associated with positive responses on both fall risk awareness questions. Age and other established fall risk factors were not associated with responses on both fall risk awareness questions. The fall risk awareness questionnaire did not predict incident falls or injurious falls. Conclusion Fall risk awareness is low in older adults. While patient centered fall risk awareness is not predictive of falls, subjective risk perceptions should be considered when designing fall preventive strategies as they may influence participation and behaviors. PMID:27801936

  11. Supply chain risk management processes for resilience: A study of South African grocery manufacturers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simon Simba

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Background: The supply chain risk management (SCRM process is aimed at the implementation of strategies that assist in managing both daily and exceptional risks facing the supply chain through continuous risk assessment to reduce vulnerability and ensure continuity. Purpose: The purpose of the study was to determine whether the SCRM process enables supply chain resilience among grocery manufacturers in South Africa. The fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG-manufacturing industry faces increased risk because of the nature of their products being perishable with a limited shelf life. Method: This study was conducted using a descriptive qualitative research design. Data were collected by means of 12 semi-structured interviews with senior supply chain practitioners within the South African grocery manufacturing industry. Findings: The study found that most firms informally implement SCRM processes of risk identification, assessment, mitigation and monitoring to mitigate disruptions. Furthermore, the findings indicate that the SCRM processes facilitate resilience among grocery manufacturers in South Africa. Conclusion: The managerial implications show that supply chain managers of grocery manufacturers should formalise the SCRM process and develop risk assessment scales to better prioritise risks in order to run a resilient supply chain. The research contributes to the supply chain management field by adding to the scarce literature relating to SCRM as an enabler of supply chain resilience in a South African context.

  12. Role of resistant starch on diabetes risk factors in people with prediabetes: Design, conduct, and baseline results of the STARCH trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marlatt, Kara L; White, Ursula A; Beyl, Robbie A; Peterson, Courtney M; Martin, Corby K; Marco, Maria L; Keenan, Michael J; Martin, Roy J; Aryana, Kayanush J; Ravussin, Eric

    2018-02-01

    Dietary resistant starch (RS) might alter gastrointestinal tract function in a manner that improves human health, particularly among adults at risk for diabetes. Here, we report the design and baseline results (with emphasis on race differences) from the STARCH trial, the first comprehensive metabolic phenotyping of people with prediabetes enrolled in a randomized clinical trial testing the effect of RS on risk factors for diabetes. Overweight/obese participants (BMI≥27kg/m 2 and weight≤143kg), age 35-75y, with confirmed prediabetes were eligible. Participants were randomized to consume 45g/day of RS (RS=amylose) or amylopectin (Control) for 12weeks. The study was designed to evaluate the effect of RS on insulin sensitivity and secretion, ectopic fat, and inflammatory markers. Secondary outcomes included energy expenditure, substrate oxidation, appetite, food intake, colonic microbial composition, fecal and plasma levels of short-chain fatty acids, fecal RS excretion, and gut permeability. Out of 280 individuals screened, 68 were randomized, 65 started the intervention, and 63 were analyzed at baseline (mean age 55y, BMI 35.6kg/m 2 ); 2 were excluded from baseline analyses due to abnormal insulin and diabetes. Sex and race comparisons at baseline were reported. African-Americans had higher baseline acute insulin response to glucose (AIRg measured by frequently sampled intravenous glucose tolerance test) compared to Caucasians, despite having less visceral adipose tissue mass and intrahepatic lipid; all other glycemic variables were similar between races. Sleep energy expenditure was ~90-100kcal/day lower in African-Americans after adjusting for insulin sensitivity and secretion. This manuscript provides an overview of the strategy used to enroll people with prediabetes into the STARCH trial and describes methodologies used in the assessment of risk factors for diabetes. Clinicaltrials.gov identifier: STARCH (NCT01708694). The present study reference can be

  13. Serum carotenoid and tocopherol concentrations and risk of asthma in childhood: a nested case-control study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hämäläinen, N; Nwaru, B I; Erlund, I; Takkinen, H-M; Ahonen, S; Toppari, J; Ilonen, J; Veijola, R; Knip, M; Kaila, M; Virtanen, S M

    2017-03-01

    The antioxidant hypothesis regarding the risk of asthma in childhood has resulted in inconsistent findings. Some data indicate that the role of antioxidants in childhood asthma risk may have a critical time window of effect, but only a well-designed longitudinal cohort study can clarify this hypothesis. To study the longitudinal associations between serum carotenoid and tocopherol concentrations during the first 4 years of life and asthma risk by the age of 5 years. Based on a case-control design nested within a Finnish birth cohort, 146 asthma cases were matched to 270 controls on birth time, sex, genetic risk, and birth place. Non-fasting blood samples were collected at the ages of 1, 1.5, 2, 3, and 4 years and serum carotenoids and tocopherols were analysed. Parents reported the presence and age at start of persistent doctor-diagnosed asthma in the child at the age of 5 years. Data analyses were conducted using generalized estimating equations. We did not find strong associations between serum carotenoids and tocopherols and the risk of asthma based on age-specific and longitudinal analyses. Both lower and higher quarters of α-carotene and γ-tocopherol increased the risk of asthma. The current findings do not support the suggestion that the increased prevalence of asthma may be a consequence of decreased intake of antioxidant nutrients. Moreover, we did not confirm any critical time window of impact of antioxidants on asthma risk. Replication of these findings in similar longitudinal settings will strengthen this evidence base. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  14. Personality differences predict health-risk behaviors in young adulthood: evidence from a longitudinal study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caspi, A; Begg, D; Dickson, N; Harrington, H; Langley, J; Moffitt, T E; Silva, P A

    1997-11-01

    In a longitudinal study of a birth cohort, the authors identified youth involved in each of 4 different health-risk behaviors at age 21: alcohol dependence, violent crime, unsafe sex, and dangerous driving habits. At age 18, the Multidimensional Personality Questionnaire (MPQ) was used to assess 10 distinct personality traits. At age 3, observational measures were used to classify children into distinct temperament groups. Results showed that a similar constellation of adolescent personality traits, with developmental origins in childhood, is linked to different health-risk behaviors at 21. Associations between the same personality traits and different health-risk behaviors were not an artifact of the same people engaging in different health-risk behaviors; rather, these associations implicated the same personality type in different but related behaviors. In planning campaigns, health professionals may need to design programs that appeal to the unique psychological makeup of persons most at risk for health-risk behaviors.

  15. Study on advanced structural design for commercialized fast breeder reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morishita, Masaki; Aoto, Kazumi; Kasahara, Naoto; Asayama, Tai

    2003-05-01

    . (3) System Based Code (SBC) for Integrity. Development policy of SBC was debated through Expert Panel, following by exemplification study for typical structure through SBC working group. Quantitative evaluation of reliability utilizing failure probability and mutual exchange methodology of margin utilizing reliability index was studied concretely. As for partial standard, selection items regulated in SBC in the field of load prediction, material, designing, fabrication, installation, operating, maintenance (inspection, repair) etc. were studied. Settlement of thermal transition that have to be assured, classification of components and operating condition, and risk assessment techniques were studied. These results were summarized as the frame of SBC. (author)

  16. Correlates of alcohol abstinence and at-risk alcohol consumption in older adults with depression: the NESDO study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van den Berg, J.F.; Kok, R.M.; van Marwijk, H.W.J.; van der Mast, R.C.; Naarding, P.; Voshaar, R.C.O.; Stek, M.L.; Verhaak, P.F.M.; de Waal, M.W.M.; Comijs, H.C.

    2014-01-01

    Objectives To compare alcohol use between depressed and nondepressed older adults, and to investigate correlates of alcohol abstinence and at-risk alcohol consumption in depressed older adults. Design Cross-sectional study. Setting Netherlands Study of Depression in Older Persons (NESDO).

  17. Correlates of alcohol abstinence and at-risk alcohol consumption in older adults with depression : the NESDO study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van den Berg, Julia F.; Kok, Rob M.; van Marwijk, Harm W. J.; van der Mast, Roos C.; Naarding, Paul; Oude Voshaar, Richard C.; Stek, Max L.; Verhaak, Peter F. M.; de Waal, Margot W. M.; Comijs, Hannie C.

    OBJECTIVES: To compare alcohol use between depressed and nondepressed older adults, and to investigate correlates of alcohol abstinence and at-risk alcohol consumption in depressed older adults. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study. SETTING: Netherlands Study of Depression in Older Persons (NESDO).

  18. Correlates of Alcohol Abstinence and At-Risk Alcohol Consumption in Older Adults with Depression: the NESDO Study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Berg, J. van den; Kok, R.M.; Marwijk, H.W.J. van; Mast, R.C. van der; Naarding, P.; Oude Voshaar, R.C.; Stek, M.L.; Verhaak, P.F.; Waal, M.W. de; Comijs, H.C.

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: To compare alcohol use between depressed and nondepressed older adults, and to investigate correlates of alcohol abstinence and at-risk alcohol consumption in depressed older adults. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study. SETTING: Netherlands Study of Depression in Older Persons (NESDO).

  19. Correlates of alcohol abstinence and at-risk alcohol consumption in older adults with depression: the NESDO Study.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Berg, J.F. van den; Kok, R.M.; Marwijk, H.W.J. van; Mast, R.C. van der; Naarding, P.; Oude Voshaar, R.C.; Stek, M.L.; Verhaak, P.F.M.; Waal, M.W.M. de; Comijs, H.C.

    2014-01-01

    Objectives: To compare alcohol use between depressed and nondepressed older adults, and to investigate correlates of alcohol abstinence and at-risk alcohol consumption in depressed older adults. Design: Cross-sectional study. Setting: Netherlands Study of Depression in Older Persons (NESDO).

  20. Addressing risk factors for child abuse among high risk pregnant women: design of a randomised controlled trial of the nurse family partnership in Dutch preventive health care

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mejdoubi Jamila

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Low socio-economic status combined with other risk factors affects a person's physical and psychosocial health from childhood to adulthood. The societal impact of these problems is huge, and the consequences carry on into the next generation(s. Although several studies show these consequences, only a few actually intervene on these issues. In the United States, the Nurse Family Partnership focuses on high risk pregnant women and their children. The main goal of this program is primary prevention of child abuse. The Netherlands is the first country outside the United States allowed to translate and culturally adapt the Nurse Family Partnership into VoorZorg. The aim of the present study is to assess whether VoorZorg is as effective in the Netherland as in the United States. Methods The study consists of three partly overlapping phases. Phase 1 was the translation and cultural adaptation of Nurse Family Partnership and the design of a two-stage selection procedure. Phase 2 was a pilot study to examine the conditions for implementation. Phase 3 is the randomized controlled trial of VoorZorg compared to the care as usual. Primary outcome measures were smoking cessation during pregnancy and after birth, birth outcomes, child development, child abuse and domestic violence. The secondary outcome measure was the number of risk factors present. Discussion This study shows that the Nurse Family Partnership was successfully translated and culturally adapted into the Dutch health care system and that this program fulfills the needs of high-risk pregnant women. We hypothesize that this program will be effective in addressing risk factors that operate during pregnancy and childhood and compromise fetal and child development. Trial registration Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN16131117

  1. Design of a population-based study of visual impairment in India : The Andhra Pradesh eye disease study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dandona Rakhi

    1997-01-01

    Full Text Available Reliable population-based epidemiologic data regarding vision and ocular morbidity, as well as those about the perceptions of people regarding visual impairment and eye care, are lacking for the most part in the developing world including India. These data are the basis on which effective eye care services can be developed. To meet this need we designed the Andhra Pradesh Eye Disease Study, a population-based epidemiology study of 10,000 people in the Indian state of Andhra Pradesh. The design of this study is described in this paper. Various options for the sample size, study areas, sampling procedure, and recruitment of subjects were considered. A sample size of 10,000 people, 5,000 each in the < or = 30 and > 30 years age groups, was determined to obtain reasonable confidence in estimating the prevalence of diseases and odds ratios for risk factors of interest. A multistage sampling strategy was chosen for the study which was assumed to give a design effect of 1.5 for the estimates. One urban area, Hyderabad, and three rural areas, West Godavari, Adilabad and Mahbubnagar districts, were selected in Andhra Pradesh. Interview instruments were developed to obtain detailed information about demographic data, diet, ocular and systemic history, risk factors for eye diseases, visual function, quality of life, barriers to eye care, and knowledge about eye diseases. A detailed examination procedure was devised to obtain a broad range of normative and abnormal data related to eyes and vision. A protocol was developed for doing automated visual fields, slitlamp and fundus photography. Computer databases were made in FoxPro for data entry and subsequent analysis with SPSS. Pilot studies were done to test the instruments, procedures, and logistics of the study in urban and rural areas. Information from the Andhra Pradesh Eye Disease Study is expected to help in planning and implementation of effective long-term preventive, curative, and

  2. Design participation as an insurance: risk-management and end-user participation in the development of information systems in healthcare organizations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vimarlund, V; Timpka, T

    2002-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to build a theoretical framework for analysis of when decision-makers should use end-user participation as a form of insurance for unforeseen consequences of implementing information systems in healthcare organizations. Data were collected in a case study of an information system development project in a small clinical setting. During the initial phase, the future end-users of the system were allowed to actively influence the system design and test every new tool that was considered for implementation. The results of the case study suggest that when time and effort are invested in allowing healthcare staff to participate in information system development processes, the benefits can well exceed the costs throughout the life cycle of the project. Risk-averse decision-makers fearing negative secondary consequences of a HIS, with regard to clinical work flow, will always adopt measures to prevent future failures, if they can find a possibility of shifting these risks. Therefore, they calculate the present discounted value of the effects accrued over time to the unit and predict the amount of resources they are willing to pay to acquire on insurance (such as design participation) that will protect the organization from future losses. End-user participation in the design process can be the key positive influence on the quality of the service and, thereby, organizational effectiveness. Investments in broad design participation can, consequently, be a productive activity that transforms potential current income into future benefits.

  3. Nutrient patterns and risk of cataract: a case-control study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fatemeh Sedaghat

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available AIM: To assess the relation between nutrient patterns and cataract risk. METHODS: This is a hospital-based case-control study with 97 cataract patients and 198 matched controls. Dietary consumption was collected through a valid food frequency questionnaire (FFQ. Nutrient patterns were detected by applying factor analysis. Unconditional logistic regression models were used to estimate odds ratio (ORs and 95%CIs. RESULTS: We extracted 5 main nutrient patterns. Factor 1 included niacin, thiamin, carbohydrates, protein, zinc, vitamin B6 and sodium (sodium pattern. Factor 2 was characterized by oleic acid, monounsaturated fats, polyunsaturated fats, linoleic acid, trans fatty acid, linolenic acid, vitamin E and saturated fats (fatty acid pattern. The third factor represented high intake of vitamin B12, vitamin D, cholesterol and calcium (mixed pattern. The 4th pattern was high in intake of beta and alpha carotene, vitamin A and vitamin C (antioxidant pattern. Finally, the 5th pattern loaded heavily on docosahexaenoic acid (DHA and eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA (omega-3 pattern. In crude and multivariate analysis, the sodium pattern was associated with increased risk of cataract (OR=1.97, 95%CI: 1.09-3.96. The fatty acid pattern elevated the risk of cataract (OR=1.94, 95%CI: 1.1-3.86. Antioxidant pattern was associated with a significant 79% reduced risk (2nd category compared with the 1st. Omega-3 pattern was significantly negatively associated with risk of cataract (P=0.04. CONCLUSION: These findings imply that nutrient patterns reflecting a combined consumption of nutrients might be important in the etiology of cataract. Additional studies with more efficient designs are warranted to confirm our findings.

  4. Assessment of Evaluation Frameworks for Design of a Sexual Risk Prevention Game for Black Adolescent Girls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sockolow, Paulina; Joppa, Meredith; Zhu, Jichen

    2018-01-01

    Adolescent sexual risk behavior (SRB), a major public health problem affects urban Black adolescent girls increasing their health disparities and risks for sexually transmitted infections. Collaborating with these adolescents, we designed a game for smartphones that incorporates elements of trauma-informed care and social cognitive theory to reduce SRB. Game researchers promote use of a comprehensive, multipurpose framework for development and evaluation of games for health applications. Our first game development step was framework selection and measurable health outcomes identification. Literature search identified two health game frameworks, both incorporating pedagogical theory, learning theory, and gaming requirements. Arnab used the IM + LM-GM framework to develop and implement a game in a school intervention program. Yusoff's framework was developed for use during game design. We investigated concordance and discordance between our SRB game design characteristics and each framework's components. Findings indicated Arnab's framework was sufficiently comprehensive to guide development of our game and outcome measure selection.

  5. Information security risk management for computerized health information systems in hospitals: a case study of Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zarei, Javad; Sadoughi, Farahnaz

    2016-01-01

    In recent years, hospitals in Iran - similar to those in other countries - have experienced growing use of computerized health information systems (CHISs), which play a significant role in the operations of hospitals. But, the major challenge of CHIS use is information security. This study attempts to evaluate CHIS information security risk management at hospitals of Iran. This applied study is a descriptive and cross-sectional research that has been conducted in 2015. The data were collected from 551 hospitals of Iran. Based on literature review, experts' opinion, and observations at five hospitals, our intensive questionnaire was designed to assess security risk management for CHISs at the concerned hospitals, which was then sent to all hospitals in Iran by the Ministry of Health. Sixty-nine percent of the studied hospitals pursue information security policies and procedures in conformity with Iran Hospitals Accreditation Standards. At some hospitals, risk identification, risk evaluation, and risk estimation, as well as risk treatment, are unstructured without any specified approach or methodology. There is no significant structured approach to risk management at the studied hospitals. Information security risk management is not followed by Iran's hospitals and their information security policies. This problem can cause a large number of challenges for their CHIS security in future. Therefore, Iran's Ministry of Health should develop practical policies to improve information security risk management in the hospitals of Iran.

  6. Development of caries risk assessment tool for Iranian preschoolers: A primary validation study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shiva Mortazavi

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: The aim of the present study was to develop a dental caries risk assessment tool for Iranian preschoolers. Methods: In a validation and cross-sectional study, a random sample of 150 preschool children was involved. This study was conducted in three phases: questionnaire design (expert panel and peer evaluation, questionnaire testing (pilot evaluation and field testing, and validation study. The initial assessments include interview, dental examination, and laboratory investigations. Validity and reliability indices, content validity index (CVI, content validity ratio (CVR, impact score, and test-retest and Cronbach's alpha were measured. Decayed, missing, filled teeth (dmft scores were calculated according to the WHO guidelines. Results: The Iranian version of caries risk assessment (CRA questionnaire contained 17 items. Cronbach's alpha coefficient (0.86 indicated a suitable internal consistency. The mean scores for the CVI and the CVR were 0.87 and 0.78, respectively. The prevalence rate of dental caries in the study group was 69.3%, and the mean dmft was 4.57 (range 0–19. Conclusions: The Persian version of CRA questionnaire was adapted to the Iranian population. The findings demonstrated overall acceptable validity and also reliability in the application of test-retest. The results of the present study provide initial evidence that the designed CRA form could be a useful tool for CRA in the Iranian preschoolers.

  7. Development of portal web site for fostering of risk literacy 'risk information navigator'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shobu, Nobuhiro; Mitsui, Seiichiro; Nakamura, Hirofumi

    2004-01-01

    Risk communication activities are important for promoting mutual understanding between local communities and Japan Nuclear Cycle Development Institutes (JNC). In addition to conventional public relation activities, the risk communication study team of JNC Tokai Works has started practical studies to promote further mutual understanding with its local communities. This paper reports the design and concept of a web site for the fostering of risk literacy, the 'Risk Information Navigator', that was developed as one of the risk communication methods, and surveys the web site from the user's perspective. (author)

  8. Risk factors for shunt malfunction in pediatric hydrocephalus: a multicenter prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riva-Cambrin, Jay; Kestle, John R W; Holubkov, Richard; Butler, Jerry; Kulkarni, Abhaya V; Drake, James; Whitehead, William E; Wellons, John C; Shannon, Chevis N; Tamber, Mandeep S; Limbrick, David D; Rozzelle, Curtis; Browd, Samuel R; Simon, Tamara D

    2016-04-01

    OBJECT The rate of CSF shunt failure remains unacceptably high. The Hydrocephalus Clinical Research Network (HCRN) conducted a comprehensive prospective observational study of hydrocephalus management, the aim of which was to isolate specific risk factors for shunt failure. METHODS The study followed all first-time shunt insertions in children younger than 19 years at 6 HCRN centers. The HCRN Investigator Committee selected, a priori, 21 variables to be examined, including clinical, radiographic, and shunt design variables. Shunt failure was defined as shunt revision, subsequent endoscopic third ventriculostomy, or shunt infection. Important a priori-defined risk factors as well as those significant in univariate analyses were then tested for independence using multivariate Cox proportional hazard modeling. RESULTS A total of 1036 children underwent initial CSF shunt placement between April 2008 and December 2011. Of these, 344 patients experienced shunt failure, including 265 malfunctions and 79 infections. The mean and median length of follow-up for the entire cohort was 400 days and 264 days, respectively. The Cox model found that age younger than 6 months at first shunt placement (HR 1.6 [95% CI 1.1-2.1]), a cardiac comorbidity (HR 1.4 [95% CI 1.0-2.1]), and endoscopic placement (HR 1.9 [95% CI 1.2-2.9]) were independently associated with reduced shunt survival. The following had no independent associations with shunt survival: etiology, payer, center, valve design, valve programmability, the use of ultrasound or stereotactic guidance, and surgeon experience and volume. CONCLUSIONS This is the largest prospective study reported on children with CSF shunts for hydrocephalus. It confirms that a young age and the use of the endoscope are risk factors for first shunt failure and that valve type has no impact. A new risk factor-an existing cardiac comorbidity-was also associated with shunt failure.

  9. Suicide among older psychiatric inpatients: an evidence-based study of a high risk group

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Erlangsen, Annette; Zarit, Steven H; Tu, Xin

    2006-01-01

    .1-0.3). In combination with other types of disorder, affective disorders were found to modify an increased risk of suicide. First versus later admission for depression was a better predictor for suicide than age at first hospitalization for depression (before or after age 60 years). More than half of suicides occurred......OBJECTIVE: Older adults have elevated suicide rates, especially in the presence of a psychiatric disorder, yet not much is known about predictors for suicide within this high-risk group. The current study examines the characteristics associated with suicide among older adults who are admitted...... to a psychiatric hospital. METHOD: All persons aged 60 and older living in Denmark who were hospitalized with psychiatric disorders during 1990-2000 were included in the study. Using a case-control design and logistic regression analysis, the authors calculated the suicide risk associated with specific patient...

  10. Case Study of Multi-Unit Risk: Multi-Unit Station Black-Out

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oh, Kyemin; Jang, Seung-cheol [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Heo, Gyunyoung [Kyung Hee University, Yongin (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-05-15

    After Fukushima Daiichi Accident, importance and public concern for Multi-Unit Risk (MUR) or Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) have been increased. Most of nuclear power plant sites in the world have more than two units. These sites have been facing the problems of MUR or accident such as Fukushima. In case of South Korea, there are generally more than four units on the same site and even more than ten units are also expected. In other words, sites in South Korea also have been facing same problems. Considering number of units on the same site, potential of these problems may be larger than other countries. The purpose of this paper is to perform case study based on another paper submitted in the conference. MUR is depended on various site features such as design, shared systems/structures, layout, environmental condition, and so on. Considering various dependencies, we assessed Multi-Unit Station Black-out (MSBO) accident based on Hanul Unit 3 and 4 model. In this paper, case study for multi-unit risk or PSA had been performed. Our result was incomplete to assess total multi-unit risk because of two challenging issues. First, economic impact had not been evaluated to estimate multi-unit risk. Second, large uncertainties were included in our result because of various assumptions. These issues must be resolved in the future.

  11. Case Study of Multi-Unit Risk: Multi-Unit Station Black-Out

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oh, Kyemin; Jang, Seung-cheol; Heo, Gyunyoung

    2015-01-01

    After Fukushima Daiichi Accident, importance and public concern for Multi-Unit Risk (MUR) or Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) have been increased. Most of nuclear power plant sites in the world have more than two units. These sites have been facing the problems of MUR or accident such as Fukushima. In case of South Korea, there are generally more than four units on the same site and even more than ten units are also expected. In other words, sites in South Korea also have been facing same problems. Considering number of units on the same site, potential of these problems may be larger than other countries. The purpose of this paper is to perform case study based on another paper submitted in the conference. MUR is depended on various site features such as design, shared systems/structures, layout, environmental condition, and so on. Considering various dependencies, we assessed Multi-Unit Station Black-out (MSBO) accident based on Hanul Unit 3 and 4 model. In this paper, case study for multi-unit risk or PSA had been performed. Our result was incomplete to assess total multi-unit risk because of two challenging issues. First, economic impact had not been evaluated to estimate multi-unit risk. Second, large uncertainties were included in our result because of various assumptions. These issues must be resolved in the future

  12. Passive smoking and risk of type 2 diabetes: a meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ying Wang

    Full Text Available BACKGROUNDS/OBJECTIVE: The prevalence of diabetes is increasing rapidly all over the world. However, studies on passive smoking and type 2 diabetes have not been systematically assessed. Therefore, we conducted a meta-analysis to explore whether an association exists between passive smoking and risk of type 2 diabetes. METHODS: We searched PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane library and Web of Science up to April 9(th, 2013, to identify prospective cohort studies that assessed passive smoking and risk of type 2 diabetes. The fixed-effect model was used to calculate the overall relative risk (RR. RESULT: 4 prospective cohort studies were included for analysis, with a total of 112,351 participants involved. The pooled RR was 1.28 (95% confidence interval (CI 1.14 to 1.44 comparing those who were exposed to passive smoking with those who were not. Subgroup, sensitivity analysis and publication bias test suggested the overall result of this analysis was robust. CONCLUSIONS: Passive smoking is associated with a significantly increased risk of type 2 diabetes. Further well-designed studies are warranted to confirm this association.

  13. A prospective study of risk factors for foot ulceration: The West of Ireland Diabetes Foot Study.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Hurley, L

    2013-09-25

    BackgroundThis is the first study to examine risk factors for diabetic foot ulceration in Irish general practice.AimTo determine the prevalence of established risk factors for foot ulceration in a community-based cohort, and to explore the potential for estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) to act as a novel risk factor.DesignA prospective observational study.MethodsPatients with diabetes attending 12 (of 17) invited general practices were invited for foot screening. Validated clinical tests were carried out at baseline to assess for vascular and sensory impairment and foot deformity. Ulcer incidence was ascertained by patient self-report and medical record. Patients were re-assessed 18 months later. ResultsOf 828 invitees, 563 (68%) attended screening. On examination 23-25% had sensory dysfunction and 18-39% had evidence of vascular impairment. Using the Scottish Intercollegiate Guidelines Network risk stratification system we found the proportion at moderate and high risk of future ulceration to be 25% and 11% respectively. At follow-up 16\\/383 patients (4.2%) developed a new foot ulcer (annual incidence rate of 2.6%). We observed an increasing probability of abnormal vascular and sensory test results (pedal pulse palpation, doppler waveform assessment, 10g monofilament, vibration perception and neuropathy disability score) with declining eGFR levels. We were unable to show an independent association between new ulceration and reduced eGFR [Odds ratio 1.01; p=0.64].ConclusionsOur data show the extent of foot complications in a representative sample of diabetes patients in Ireland. Use of eGFR did not improve identification of patients at risk of foot ulceration.

  14. Risk management study for the retired Hanford Site facilities: Risk management executive summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coles, G.A.; Shultz, M.V.; Taylor, W.E.

    1994-02-01

    This document provides a cost-comparison evaluation for implementing certain risk-reduction measures and their effect on the overall risk of the 100 and 200 Area retired, surplus facilities. The evaluation is based on conditions that existed at the time the risk evaluation team performed facility investigations, and does not acknowledge risk-reduction measures that occurred soon after risk identification. This evaluation is one part of an overall risk management study for these facilities. The retired facilities investigated for this evaluation are located in the 100 and 200 Areas of the 1450-km 2 Hanford Site. The Hanford Site is a semiarid tract of land in southeastern Washington State. The nearest population center is Richland, Washington, (population 32,000) 30 km southeast of the 200 Area. This document is the first in a four volume series that comprise the risk management study for the retired, surplus facilities. Volume 2 is the risk evaluation work procedure; volume 3 provides the results for the risk evaluation; and volume 4 is the risk-reduction cost comparison

  15. Methods for formulation of design basis accidents within a risk-informed approach to safety regulation of new nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beer, B.C.; Apostolakis, G.E.; Golay, M.W.

    2000-01-01

    Within a project sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) an investigation is being conducted into creating a risk-informed safety regulatory framework and design process based upon the use of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). In conjunction with efforts to formulate an overall regulatory framework (i.e., reported in PSAM 5 by F. Duran, A. Camp, G. Apostolakis and M. Golay, 'A Framework for Regulatory Requirements and Industry Standards for New Nuclear Power Plants'), this paper addresses the potential role(s) of Design Basis Accidents (DBAs) within this new framework. Currently that role, if any, is unclear. In previous nuclear safety regulatory treatments, DBAs have been of great practical value for both designers and regulators. However, they have suffered from being inconsistently formulated, and lacking fundamental justification. Any DBA set is likely to be formulated uniquely for a specific reactor concept. The staff of any nuclear power plant (NPP) in the U.S. routinely calculates the likelihood of core damage, the likelihood of radioactive release and the likelihood of adverse health effects due to radioactive release. As the accuracy of such estimates improves industry-wide, safety regulators consider weighing these calculated risks more heavily than strict adherence to the prescriptive conservatisms of existing regulations, hence risk-informed regulation. DBAs, despite their prescriptive nature, can remain useful tools for regulators and designers in a risk-informed regulatory framework, providing that they can be formulated in a fashion consistent with the risk profiles of a plant. DBAs also offer the opportunity to take into account factors of uncertainty not captured in a PRA, which are typically addressed via defense-in-depth features and subjective judgements. Designers seeking only to create a plant having a calculated risk below a certain value, while minimizing cost, may find themselves in an inefficient trial-and-error process as they

  16. Risk and protective factors for meningococcal disease in adolescents: matched cohort study

    OpenAIRE

    Tully, Joanna; Viner, Russell M; Coen, Pietro G; Stuart, James M; Zambon, Maria; Peckham, Catherine; Booth, Clare; Klein, Nigel; Kaczmarski, Ed; Booy, Robert

    2006-01-01

    Objective: To examine biological and social risk factors for meningococcal disease in adolescents. Design: Prospective, population based, matched cohort study with controls matched for age and sex in 1:1 matching. Controls were sought from the general practitioner. Setting: Six contiguous regions of England, which represent some 65% of the country’s population. Participants: 15-19 year olds with meningococcal disease recruited at hospital admission in six regions (repr...

  17. A study on risk perception toward nuclear power operation in Taiwan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee Ciao-tzu; Hu Shiang-ling; Chang, Wushou P.

    2000-01-01

    Currently, more conflicts appear between the public and government over the establishment of the 4th nuclear power plant in Taiwan. In order to improve risk management by the Society, understanding the risk perception of the public will be essential. A pilot study on the risk perception toward nuclear power operation and other current risks was conducted in summer of 1999. In addition to perception towards nuclear power operation, the survey evaluated several dimensions of health-related risks including smoking, chemical wastes, nuclear wastes, air transportation, AIDS, and food intoxication. The questionnaire was designed to be proceeded under systemic instruction and followed with self-filling. 57 (85.1%) of 67 respondents worked at the Taipei Metropolitan Rapid Transportation, including 62 male subjects (92.5%). 44 (69.8%) respondents favored building the 4th nuclear power plant in Taiwan. The acceptable distance between their houses and the nuclear power plant was 145.13 km in average, as compared with 400 km that of North and South of Taiwan. The mean expenses they are willing to pay to reduce the risk of the NPP is about US $7.73, 0.56% of their average income. However, the levels of risks toward nuclear power operation is significant higher than these for air transportation, smoking, and food intoxication. Government's spending is assumed more effective to reduce the threats from risks of nuclear power operation, rather than professional's or experts' effects. Besides, other related factors include levels of involuntary exposure to NP operation (p<0.001) and number of people potentially in danger (p<0.001). These 2 altitudes are positively correlated with the respondents' perceived risks. Different attitudes toward NP operation within these engineers, and those evaluated by others, are of great interest. Further evaluation will be conducted to compare the mechanism involved. We gratefully acknowledge financial support from the National Science Council

  18. A study on risk perception toward nuclear power operation in Taiwan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee Ciao-tzu; Hu Shiang-ling; Chang, Wushou P. [National Yang-Ming University, Taiwan (China)

    2000-05-01

    Currently, more conflicts appear between the public and government over the establishment of the 4th nuclear power plant in Taiwan. In order to improve risk management by the Society, understanding the risk perception of the public will be essential. A pilot study on the risk perception toward nuclear power operation and other current risks was conducted in summer of 1999. In addition to perception towards nuclear power operation, the survey evaluated several dimensions of health-related risks including smoking, chemical wastes, nuclear wastes, air transportation, AIDS, and food intoxication. The questionnaire was designed to be proceeded under systemic instruction and followed with self-filling. 57 (85.1%) of 67 respondents worked at the Taipei Metropolitan Rapid Transportation, including 62 male subjects (92.5%). 44 (69.8%) respondents favored building the 4th nuclear power plant in Taiwan. The acceptable distance between their houses and the nuclear power plant was 145.13 km in average, as compared with 400 km that of North and South of Taiwan. The mean expenses they are willing to pay to reduce the risk of the NPP is about US $7.73, 0.56% of their average income. However, the levels of risks toward nuclear power operation is significant higher than these for air transportation, smoking, and food intoxication. Government's spending is assumed more effective to reduce the threats from risks of nuclear power operation, rather than professional's or experts' effects. Besides, other related factors include levels of involuntary exposure to NP operation (p<0.001) and number of people potentially in danger (p<0.001). These 2 altitudes are positively correlated with the respondents' perceived risks. Different attitudes toward NP operation within these engineers, and those evaluated by others, are of great interest. Further evaluation will be conducted to compare the mechanism involved. We gratefully acknowledge financial support from the National

  19. Analgesic use and the risk of kidney cancer: a meta-analysis of epidemiologic studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choueiri, Toni K.; Je, Youjin; Cho, Eunyoung

    2013-01-01

    Analgesics are the most commonly used over-the-counter drugs worldwide with certain analgesics having cancer prevention effect. The evidence for an increased risk of developing kidney cancer with analgesic use is mixed. Using a meta-analysis design of available observational epidemiologic studies, we investigated the association between analgesic use and kidney cancer risk. We searched the MEDLINE and EMBASE databases to identify eligible case-control or cohort studies published in English until June 2012 for 3 categories of analgesics: acetaminophen, aspirin or other Non-Steroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drugs (NSAIDs). Study-specific effect estimates were pooled to compute an overall relative risk (RR) and its 95% confidence interval (CI) using a random effects model for each category of the analgesics. We identified 20 studies (14 with acetaminophen, 13 with aspirin, and 5 with other NSAIDs) that were performed in 6 countries, including 8,420 cases of kidney cancer. Use of acetaminophen and non-aspirin NSAIDs were associated with an increased risk of kidney cancer (pooled RR, 1.28; 95% CI, 1.15 to 1.44 and 1.25; 95% CI, 1.06 to 1.46, respectively). For aspirin use, we found no overall increased risk (pooled RR, 1.10; 95% CI, 0.95 to 1.28), except for non-US studies (5 studies, pooled RR=1.17, 95% CI, 1.04 to 1.33). Similar increases in risks were seen with higher analgesic intake. In this largest meta-analysis to date, we found that acetaminophen and non-aspirin NSAIDs are associated with a significant risk of developing kidney cancer. Further work is needed to elucidate biologic mechanisms behind these findings. PMID:23400756

  20. Flood risk analysis for flood control and sediment transportation in sandy regions: A case study in the Loess Plateau, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Aijun; Chang, Jianxia; Wang, Yimin; Huang, Qiang; Zhou, Shuai

    2018-05-01

    Traditional flood risk analysis focuses on the probability of flood events exceeding the design flood of downstream hydraulic structures while neglecting the influence of sedimentation in river channels on regional flood control systems. This work advances traditional flood risk analysis by proposing a univariate and copula-based bivariate hydrological risk framework which incorporates both flood control and sediment transport. In developing the framework, the conditional probabilities of different flood events under various extreme precipitation scenarios are estimated by exploiting the copula-based model. Moreover, a Monte Carlo-based algorithm is designed to quantify the sampling uncertainty associated with univariate and bivariate hydrological risk analyses. Two catchments located on the Loess plateau are selected as study regions: the upper catchments of the Xianyang and Huaxian stations (denoted as UCX and UCH, respectively). The univariate and bivariate return periods, risk and reliability in the context of uncertainty for the purposes of flood control and sediment transport are assessed for the study regions. The results indicate that sedimentation triggers higher risks of damaging the safety of local flood control systems compared with the event that AMF exceeds the design flood of downstream hydraulic structures in the UCX and UCH. Moreover, there is considerable sampling uncertainty affecting the univariate and bivariate hydrologic risk evaluation, which greatly challenges measures of future flood mitigation. In addition, results also confirm that the developed framework can estimate conditional probabilities associated with different flood events under various extreme precipitation scenarios aiming for flood control and sediment transport. The proposed hydrological risk framework offers a promising technical reference for flood risk analysis in sandy regions worldwide.

  1. Study on conceptual design system of tritium production fusion reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    He Kaihui

    2004-11-01

    Conceptual design of an advanced tritium production reactor based on spherical torus, which is intermediate application of fusion energy, was presented. Different from traditional tokamak tritium production reactor design, advanced plasma physics performance and compact structural characteristics of ST were used to minimize tritium leakage and to maximize tritium breeding ratio with arrangement of tritium production blankets as possible as it can within vacuum vessel in order to produce 1 kg excess tritium except self-sufficient plasma core, corresponding plant availability 40% or more. Based on 2D neutronics calculation, preliminary conceptual design of ST-TPR was presented. Besides systematical analyses; design risk, uncertainty and backup are introduced generally for the backgrounds of next detailed conceptual design. (author)

  2. The design of supply chains

    OpenAIRE

    Bøge Sørensen, Lars

    2004-01-01

    Keywords Supply Chain Management, Supply Chain Design, Literature study Abstract Argues stability is a design objective for supply chain design alongside cost, lead time and responsiveness. Performs an extensive literature study on supply chain design, identifies methods, theories and objectives in the existing literature. Describes the concept external specificity and how it’s used to design supply chains. Using the concept upstream, archetypes of risk minimal and maximal desi...

  3. Public involvement and risk communiction for the Rocky Flats health studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zoda, S.M.; Lockhart, A.J.

    1993-01-01

    In 1990, the State of Colorado and the U.S. Department of Energy entered into an Agreement in Principle that provides funding for state studies and monitoring of the Rocky Flats Nuclear Weapons Plant. The Colorado Department of Health initiated a two-phase study to identify releases of radioactive and other contaminants from the year 1952, when Rocky Flats opened, through 1989, and to estimate the potential offsite exposures and health effects. Because one of the main goals for the study is to answer citizen questions about past operations and impacts from the Rocky Flats Plant, the Department of Health designed an open study process featuring a multi-faceted program for public involvement and two-way communication. To provide independent scientific oversight and increase public accountability, Governor Roy Romer appointed a 12-member Health Advisory Panel that includes local and national technical experts and community members. This paper describes the study process and the public involvement and risk communication program designed to address citizen concerns, foster understanding and build credibility

  4. A Study Of Risk Factors For Low Birth Weight

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deswal B S

    1999-01-01

    Full Text Available Research question: What is the extent of low weight babies born in hospitals and its association with some maternal factors? Objectives: 1. To find an overall prevalence of low birth weight babies amongst hospital births in Meerut city. 2. To identify and quantify the effects of some risk factors for low birth weight. Setting: District women Hospital of Meerut city of western U.P. Study Design: Hospital based matched case-control study. Sample size: 491 low birth weight babies as ‘cases’ and an equal number of babies of normal birth weight in ‘control’ group matched for maternal age, sex of baby, birth order and institution of delivery. Study variables: Socio-economic Status: maternal biological factors including obstetric history: antenatal factors: nutritional factors: history of abortion: toxaemia of pregnancy etc. Results: Overall proportion of low birth weight babies was found to be 21.8% amongst hospital live births and 30.9% born to mothers aged below 30 years of age. Low maternal weight, under nutrition, lack of antenatal care, short inter-pregnancy interval, toxacmia of pregnancy were independent factors increasing the risk of low birth weight significantly. Conclusions: The study suggested that a substantial proportion of low birth weight babies can be averted by improving maternal nutritional status including anemic condition, birth spacing and proper antenatal care.

  5. The Netherlands Epidemiology of Obesity (NEO) study: study design and data collection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Mutsert, Renée; den Heijer, Martin; Rabelink, Ton Johannes; Smit, Johannes Willem Adriaan; Romijn, Johannes Anthonius; Jukema, Johan Wouter; de Roos, Albert; Cobbaert, Christa Maria; Kloppenburg, Margreet; le Cessie, Saskia; Middeldorp, Saskia; Rosendaal, Frits Richard

    2013-06-01

    Obesity is a well-established risk factor for many chronic diseases. Incomplete insight exists in the causal pathways responsible for obesity-related disorders and consequently, in the identification of obese individuals at risk of these disorders. The Netherlands Epidemiology of Obesity (NEO) study is designed for extensive phenotyping to investigate pathways that lead to obesity-related diseases. The NEO study is a population-based, prospective cohort study that includes 6,673 individuals aged 45-65 years, with an oversampling of individuals with overweight or obesity. At baseline, data on demography, lifestyle, and medical history have been collected by questionnaires. In addition, samples of 24-h urine, fasting and postprandial blood plasma and serum, and DNA were collected. Participants underwent an extensive physical examination, including anthropometry, electrocardiography, spirometry, and measurement of the carotid artery intima-media thickness by ultrasonography. In random subsamples of participants, magnetic resonance imaging of abdominal fat, pulse wave velocity of the aorta, heart, and brain, magnetic resonance spectroscopy of the liver, indirect calorimetry, dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry, or accelerometry measurements were performed. The collection of data started in September 2008 and completed at the end of September 2012. Participants are followed for the incidence of obesity-related diseases and mortality. The NEO study investigates pathways that lead to obesity-related diseases. A better understanding of the mechanisms underlying the development of disease in obesity may help to identify individuals who are susceptible to the detrimental metabolic, cardiovascular and other consequences of obesity and has implications for the development of prevention and treatment strategies.

  6. SU-E-T-316: The Design of a Risk Index Method for 3D Patient Specific QA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cho, W; Wu, H [Seoul National University Hospital, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Xing, L [Stanford University, Stanford, CA (United States); Suh, T [Catholic UniversityMedical College, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-06-01

    Purpose: To suggest a new guidance for the evaluation of 3D patient specific QA, a structure-specific risk-index (RI) method was designed and implemented. Methods: A new algorithm was designed to assign the score of Pass, Fail or Pass with Risk to all 3D voxels in each structure by improving a conventional Gamma Index (GI) algorithm, which implied the degree of the risk of under-dose to the treatment target or over-dose to the organ at risks (OAR). Structure-specific distance to agreement (DTOA), dose difference and minimum checkable dose were applied to the GI algorithm, and additional parameters such as dose gradient factor and dose limit of structures were used to the RI method. Maximum passing rate (PR) and minimum PR were designed and calculated for each structure with the RI method. 3D doses were acquired from a spine SBRT plan by simulating the shift of beam iso-center, and tested to show the feasibility of the suggested method. Results: When the iso-center was shifted by 1 mm, 2 mm, and 3 mm, the PR of conventional GI method between shifted and non-shifted 3D doses were 99.9%, 97.4%, and 89.7% for PTV, 99.8%, 84.8%, and 63.2% for spinal cord, and 100%, 99.5%, 91.7% for right lung. The minimum PRs from the RI method were 98.9%, 96.9%, and 89.5% for PTV, and 96.1%, 79.3%, 57.5% for spinal cord, and 92.5%, 92.0%, 84.4% for right lung, respectively. The maximum PRs from the RI method were equal or less than the PRs from the conventional GI evaluation. Conclusion: Designed 3D RI method showed more strict acceptance level than the conventional GI method, especially for OARs. The RI method is expected to give the degrees of risks in the delivered doses, as well as the degrees of agreements between calculated 3D doses and measured (or simulated) 3D doses.

  7. SU-E-T-316: The Design of a Risk Index Method for 3D Patient Specific QA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cho, W; Wu, H; Xing, L; Suh, T

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: To suggest a new guidance for the evaluation of 3D patient specific QA, a structure-specific risk-index (RI) method was designed and implemented. Methods: A new algorithm was designed to assign the score of Pass, Fail or Pass with Risk to all 3D voxels in each structure by improving a conventional Gamma Index (GI) algorithm, which implied the degree of the risk of under-dose to the treatment target or over-dose to the organ at risks (OAR). Structure-specific distance to agreement (DTOA), dose difference and minimum checkable dose were applied to the GI algorithm, and additional parameters such as dose gradient factor and dose limit of structures were used to the RI method. Maximum passing rate (PR) and minimum PR were designed and calculated for each structure with the RI method. 3D doses were acquired from a spine SBRT plan by simulating the shift of beam iso-center, and tested to show the feasibility of the suggested method. Results: When the iso-center was shifted by 1 mm, 2 mm, and 3 mm, the PR of conventional GI method between shifted and non-shifted 3D doses were 99.9%, 97.4%, and 89.7% for PTV, 99.8%, 84.8%, and 63.2% for spinal cord, and 100%, 99.5%, 91.7% for right lung. The minimum PRs from the RI method were 98.9%, 96.9%, and 89.5% for PTV, and 96.1%, 79.3%, 57.5% for spinal cord, and 92.5%, 92.0%, 84.4% for right lung, respectively. The maximum PRs from the RI method were equal or less than the PRs from the conventional GI evaluation. Conclusion: Designed 3D RI method showed more strict acceptance level than the conventional GI method, especially for OARs. The RI method is expected to give the degrees of risks in the delivered doses, as well as the degrees of agreements between calculated 3D doses and measured (or simulated) 3D doses

  8. The SAFE FOODS Risk Analysis Framework suitable for GMOs? A case study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuiper, H.A.; Davies, H.V.

    2010-01-01

    This paper describes the current EU regulatory framework for risk analysis of genetically modified (GM) crop cultivation and market introduction of derived food/feed. Furthermore the risk assessment strategies for GM crops and derived food/feed as designed by the European Food Safety Authority

  9. Automating risk analysis of software design models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frydman, Maxime; Ruiz, Guifré; Heymann, Elisa; César, Eduardo; Miller, Barton P

    2014-01-01

    The growth of the internet and networked systems has exposed software to an increased amount of security threats. One of the responses from software developers to these threats is the introduction of security activities in the software development lifecycle. This paper describes an approach to reduce the need for costly human expertise to perform risk analysis in software, which is common in secure development methodologies, by automating threat modeling. Reducing the dependency on security experts aims at reducing the cost of secure development by allowing non-security-aware developers to apply secure development with little to no additional cost, making secure development more accessible. To automate threat modeling two data structures are introduced, identification trees and mitigation trees, to identify threats in software designs and advise mitigation techniques, while taking into account specification requirements and cost concerns. These are the components of our model for automated threat modeling, AutSEC. We validated AutSEC by implementing it in a tool based on data flow diagrams, from the Microsoft security development methodology, and applying it to VOMS, a grid middleware component, to evaluate our model's performance.

  10. Design standards for experimental and field studies to evaluate diagnostic accuracy of tests for infectious diseases in aquatic animals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laurin, E; Thakur, K K; Gardner, I A; Hick, P; Moody, N J G; Crane, M S J; Ernst, I

    2018-05-01

    Design and reporting quality of diagnostic accuracy studies (DAS) are important metrics for assessing utility of tests used in animal and human health. Following standards for designing DAS will assist in appropriate test selection for specific testing purposes and minimize the risk of reporting biased sensitivity and specificity estimates. To examine the benefits of recommending standards, design information from published DAS literature was assessed for 10 finfish, seven mollusc, nine crustacean and two amphibian diseases listed in the 2017 OIE Manual of Diagnostic Tests for Aquatic Animals. Of the 56 DAS identified, 41 were based on field testing, eight on experimental challenge studies and seven on both. Also, we adapted human and terrestrial-animal standards and guidelines for DAS structure for use in aquatic animal diagnostic research. Through this process, we identified and addressed important metrics for consideration at the design phase: study purpose, targeted disease state, selection of appropriate samples and specimens, laboratory analytical methods, statistical methods and data interpretation. These recommended design standards for DAS are presented as a checklist including risk-of-failure points and actions to mitigate bias at each critical step. Adherence to standards when designing DAS will also facilitate future systematic review and meta-analyses of DAS research literature. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  11. Implementation and Effects of Risk-Dependent Obstetric Care in the Netherlands (Expect Study II): Protocol for an Impact Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Montfort, Pim; Willemse, Jessica Ppm; Dirksen, Carmen D; van Dooren, Ivo Ma; Meertens, Linda Je; Spaanderman, Marc Ea; Zelis, Maartje; Zwaan, Iris M; Scheepers, Hubertina Cj; Smits, Luc Jm

    2018-05-04

    Recently, validated risk models predicting adverse obstetric outcomes combined with risk-dependent care paths have been made available for early antenatal care in the southeastern part of the Netherlands. This study will evaluate implementation progress and impact of the new approach in obstetric care. The objective of this paper is to describe the design of a study evaluating the impact of implementing risk-dependent care. Validated first-trimester prediction models are embedded in daily clinical practice and combined with risk-dependent obstetric care paths. A multicenter prospective cohort study consisting of women who receive risk-dependent care is being performed from April 2017 to April 2018 (Expect Study II). Obstetric risk profiles will be calculated using a Web-based tool, the Expect prediction tool. The primary outcomes are the adherence of health care professionals and compliance of women. Secondary outcomes are patient satisfaction and cost-effectiveness. Outcome measures will be established using Web-based questionnaires. The secondary outcomes of the risk-dependent care cohort (Expect II) will be compared with the outcomes of a similar prospective cohort (Expect I). Women of this similar cohort received former care-as-usual and were prospectively included between July 1, 2013 and December 31, 2015 (Expect I). Currently, women are being recruited for the Expect Study II, and a total of 300 women are enrolled. This study will provide information about the implementation and impact of a new approach in obstetric care using prediction models and risk-dependent obstetric care paths. Netherlands Trial Register NTR4143; http://www.trialregister.nl/trialreg/admin/rctview.asp?TC=4143 (Archived by WebCite at http://www.webcitation.org/6t8ijtpd9). ©Pim van Montfort, Jessica PPM Willemse, Carmen D Dirksen, Ivo MA van Dooren, Linda JE Meertens, Marc EA Spaanderman, Maartje Zelis, Iris M Zwaan, Hubertina CJ Scheepers, Luc JM Smits. Originally published in JMIR

  12. Factors Influencing Cancer Risk Perception in High Risk Populations: A Systematic Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    Background Patients at higher than average risk of heritable cancer may process risk information differently than the general population. However, little is known about clinical, demographic, or psychosocial predictors that may impact risk perception in these groups. The objective of this study was to characterize factors associated with perceived risk of developing cancer in groups at high risk for cancer based on genetics or family history. Methods We searched Ovid MEDLINE, Ovid Embase, Ovid PsycInfo, and Scopus from inception through April 2009 for English-language, original investigations in humans using core concepts of "risk" and "cancer." We abstracted key information and then further restricted articles dealing with perceived risk of developing cancer due to inherited risk. Results Of 1028 titles identified, 53 articles met our criteria. Most (92%) used an observational design and focused on women (70%) with a family history of or contemplating genetic testing for breast cancer. Of the 53 studies, 36 focused on patients who had not had genetic testing for cancer risk, 17 included studies of patients who had undergone genetic testing for cancer risk. Family history of cancer, previous prophylactic tests and treatments, and younger age were associated with cancer risk perception. In addition, beliefs about the preventability and severity of cancer, personality factors such as "monitoring" personality, the ability to process numerical information, as well as distress/worry also were associated with cancer risk perception. Few studies addressed non-breast cancer or risk perception in specific demographic groups (e.g. elderly or minority groups) and few employed theory-driven analytic strategies to decipher interrelationships of factors. Conclusions Several factors influence cancer risk perception in patients at elevated risk for cancer. The science of characterizing and improving risk perception in cancer for high risk groups, although evolving, is still

  13. Factors Influencing Cancer Risk Perception in High Risk Populations: A Systematic Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tilburt Jon C

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Patients at higher than average risk of heritable cancer may process risk information differently than the general population. However, little is known about clinical, demographic, or psychosocial predictors that may impact risk perception in these groups. The objective of this study was to characterize factors associated with perceived risk of developing cancer in groups at high risk for cancer based on genetics or family history. Methods We searched Ovid MEDLINE, Ovid Embase, Ovid PsycInfo, and Scopus from inception through April 2009 for English-language, original investigations in humans using core concepts of "risk" and "cancer." We abstracted key information and then further restricted articles dealing with perceived risk of developing cancer due to inherited risk. Results Of 1028 titles identified, 53 articles met our criteria. Most (92% used an observational design and focused on women (70% with a family history of or contemplating genetic testing for breast cancer. Of the 53 studies, 36 focused on patients who had not had genetic testing for cancer risk, 17 included studies of patients who had undergone genetic testing for cancer risk. Family history of cancer, previous prophylactic tests and treatments, and younger age were associated with cancer risk perception. In addition, beliefs about the preventability and severity of cancer, personality factors such as "monitoring" personality, the ability to process numerical information, as well as distress/worry also were associated with cancer risk perception. Few studies addressed non-breast cancer or risk perception in specific demographic groups (e.g. elderly or minority groups and few employed theory-driven analytic strategies to decipher interrelationships of factors. Conclusions Several factors influence cancer risk perception in patients at elevated risk for cancer. The science of characterizing and improving risk perception in cancer for high risk groups, although

  14. A cyber security risk assessment for the design of I and C system in nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Song, Jae Gu; Lee, Jung Woon; Lee, Cheal Kwon; Kwon, Kee Choon; Lee, Dong Young

    2012-01-01

    The applications of computers and communication system and network technologies in nuclear power plants have expanded recently. This application of digital technologies to the instrumentation and control systems of nuclear power plants brings with it the cyber security concerns similar to other critical infrastructures. Cyber security risk assessments for digital instrumentation and control systems have become more crucial in the development of new systems and in the operation of existing systems. Although the instrumentation and control systems of nuclear power plants are similar to industrial control systems, the former have specifications that differ from the latter in terms of architecture and function, in order to satisfy nuclear safety requirements, which need different methods for the application of cyber security risk assessment. In this paper, the characteristics of nuclear power plant instrumentation and control systems are described, and the considerations needed when conducting cyber security risk assessments in accordance with the life cycle process of instrumentation and control systems are discussed. For cyber security risk assessments of instrumentation and control systems, the activities and considerations necessary for assessments during the system design phase or component design and equipment supply phase are presented in the following 6 steps: 1) System Identification and Cyber Security Modeling, 2) Asset and Impact Analysis, 3) Threat Analysis, 4) Vulnerability Analysis, 5) Security Control Design, and 6) Penetration test. The results from an application of the method to a digital reactor protection system are described.

  15. A cyber security risk assessment for the design of I and C system in nuclear power plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Song, Jae Gu; Lee, Jung Woon; Lee, Cheal Kwon; Kwon, Kee Choon; Lee, Dong Young [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2012-12-15

    The applications of computers and communication system and network technologies in nuclear power plants have expanded recently. This application of digital technologies to the instrumentation and control systems of nuclear power plants brings with it the cyber security concerns similar to other critical infrastructures. Cyber security risk assessments for digital instrumentation and control systems have become more crucial in the development of new systems and in the operation of existing systems. Although the instrumentation and control systems of nuclear power plants are similar to industrial control systems, the former have specifications that differ from the latter in terms of architecture and function, in order to satisfy nuclear safety requirements, which need different methods for the application of cyber security risk assessment. In this paper, the characteristics of nuclear power plant instrumentation and control systems are described, and the considerations needed when conducting cyber security risk assessments in accordance with the life cycle process of instrumentation and control systems are discussed. For cyber security risk assessments of instrumentation and control systems, the activities and considerations necessary for assessments during the system design phase or component design and equipment supply phase are presented in the following 6 steps: 1) System Identification and Cyber Security Modeling, 2) Asset and Impact Analysis, 3) Threat Analysis, 4) Vulnerability Analysis, 5) Security Control Design, and 6) Penetration test. The results from an application of the method to a digital reactor protection system are described.

  16. Risk-Optimized Design of Production Systems by Use of GRAMOSA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Lütjen

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Today production and logistic systems are getting more complex. This is a problem which the planning and design of such systems have to deal with. One main issue of production system development in series production is the planning of production processes and systems under uncertainty. New and existing production technologies are often not fully adoptable to new products. This is why some of the main characteristics, like, for example, cost, time, or quality, are not definable at the beginning. Only value ranges and probabilities can be estimated. However, the adaptation process is controllable, which means that the adaptation results are depending on the existing development budget and its resources. This paper presents an approach for the optimized allocation of development resources regarding the adaptation risks of production technologies and processes. The modeling concept GRAMOSA is used for integrated modeling and discrete event-based simulation of the aspired production system. To this end a domain-specific modeling language (DSML is applied. The further risk-based analysis of the simulation results and the optimized allocation of the development budget are done by use of mathematical optimization.

  17. An overview of the fire risk scoping study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nowlen, S.P.; Lambright, J.A.; Nicolette, V.F.; Bohn, M.P.

    1989-01-01

    The Fire Risk Scoping Study was sponsored by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and performed at Sandia National Laboratories. The study was initiated as a result of previous USNRC-sponsored fire research efforts that had identified certain fire risk issues that had not been addressed in previously completed commercial nuclear power plant fire risk analyses. The specific objectives of this study were (1) to review and requantify fire risk scenarios from four fire probabilistic risk assessments in light of updated data bases made available as a result of USNRC-sponsored Fire Protection Research Program and updated computer fire modeling capabilities, (2) to identify potentially significant fire risk issues that have not been previously addressed in a fire risk context and to quantify the potential impact of those identified fire risk issues where possible, and (3) to review current fire regulations and plant implementation practices for relevance to the identified unaddressed fire risk issues. 9 refs., 3 tabs

  18. Uncertainty Quantification Reveals the Importance of Data Variability and Experimental Design Considerations for in Silico Proarrhythmia Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kelly C. Chang

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The Comprehensive in vitro Proarrhythmia Assay (CiPA is a global initiative intended to improve drug proarrhythmia risk assessment using a new paradigm of mechanistic assays. Under the CiPA paradigm, the relative risk of drug-induced Torsade de Pointes (TdP is assessed using an in silico model of the human ventricular action potential (AP that integrates in vitro pharmacology data from multiple ion channels. Thus, modeling predictions of cardiac risk liability will depend critically on the variability in pharmacology data, and uncertainty quantification (UQ must comprise an essential component of the in silico assay. This study explores UQ methods that may be incorporated into the CiPA framework. Recently, we proposed a promising in silico TdP risk metric (qNet, which is derived from AP simulations and allows separation of a set of CiPA training compounds into Low, Intermediate, and High TdP risk categories. The purpose of this study was to use UQ to evaluate the robustness of TdP risk separation by qNet. Uncertainty in the model parameters used to describe drug binding and ionic current block was estimated using the non-parametric bootstrap method and a Bayesian inference approach. Uncertainty was then propagated through AP simulations to quantify uncertainty in qNet for each drug. UQ revealed lower uncertainty and more accurate TdP risk stratification by qNet when simulations were run at concentrations below 5× the maximum therapeutic exposure (Cmax. However, when drug effects were extrapolated above 10× Cmax, UQ showed that qNet could no longer clearly separate drugs by TdP risk. This was because for most of the pharmacology data, the amount of current block measured was <60%, preventing reliable estimation of IC50-values. The results of this study demonstrate that the accuracy of TdP risk prediction depends both on the intrinsic variability in ion channel pharmacology data as well as on experimental design considerations that preclude an

  19. Measurement of predictive validity in violence risk assessment studies: a second-order systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Jay P; Desmarais, Sarah L; Van Dorn, Richard A

    2013-01-01

    The objective of the present review was to examine how predictive validity is analyzed and reported in studies of instruments used to assess violence risk. We reviewed 47 predictive validity studies published between 1990 and 2011 of 25 instruments that were included in two recent systematic reviews. Although all studies reported receiver operating characteristic curve analyses and the area under the curve (AUC) performance indicator, this methodology was defined inconsistently and findings often were misinterpreted. In addition, there was between-study variation in benchmarks used to determine whether AUCs were small, moderate, or large in magnitude. Though virtually all of the included instruments were designed to produce categorical estimates of risk - through the use of either actuarial risk bins or structured professional judgments - only a minority of studies calculated performance indicators for these categorical estimates. In addition to AUCs, other performance indicators, such as correlation coefficients, were reported in 60% of studies, but were infrequently defined or interpreted. An investigation of sources of heterogeneity did not reveal significant variation in reporting practices as a function of risk assessment approach (actuarial vs. structured professional judgment), study authorship, geographic location, type of journal (general vs. specialized audience), sample size, or year of publication. Findings suggest a need for standardization of predictive validity reporting to improve comparison across studies and instruments. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  20. Cardiovascular disease risk factors in HIV patients--association with antiretroviral therapy. Results from the DAD study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Friis-Møller, Nina; Weber, Rainer; Reiss, Peter

    2003-01-01

    , a prospective multinational cohort study initiated in 1999. METHODS: Cross-sectional analyses of CVD risk factors at baseline. The data collected includes data on demographic variables, cigarette smoking, diabetes mellitus, hypertension, dyslipidaemia, body mass index, stage of HIV infection, antiretroviral......OBJECTIVE: To determine the prevalence of risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD) among HIV-infected persons, and to investigate any association between such risk factors, stage of HIV disease, and use of antiretroviral therapies. DESIGN: Baseline data from 17,852 subjects enrolled in DAD...... therapy. RESULTS: Almost 25% of the study population were at an age where there is an appreciable risk of CVD, with those receiving a protease inhibitor (PI) and/or non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI) tending to be older. 1.4% had a previous history of CVD and 51.5% were cigarette...

  1. Family studies to find rare high risk variants in migraine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, Rikke Dyhr; Christensen, Anne Francke; Olesen, Jes

    2017-12-01

    Migraine has long been known as a common complex disease caused by genetic and environmental factors. The pathophysiology and the specific genetic susceptibility are poorly understood. Common variants only explain a small part of the heritability of migraine. It is thought that rare genetic variants with bigger effect size may be involved in the disease. Since migraine has a tendency to cluster in families, a family approach might be the way to find these variants. This is also indicated by identification of migraine-associated loci in classical linkage-analyses in migraine families. A single migraine study using a candidate-gene approach was performed in 2010 identifying a rare mutation in the TRESK potassium channel segregating in a large family with migraine with aura, but this finding has later become questioned. The technologies of next-generation sequencing (NGS) now provides an affordable tool to investigate the genetic variation in the entire exome or genome. The family-based study design using NGS is described in this paper. We also review family studies using NGS that have been successful in finding rare variants in other common complex diseases in order to argue the promising application of a family approach to migraine. PubMed was searched to find studies that looked for rare genetic variants in common complex diseases through a family-based design using NGS, excluding studies looking for de-novo mutations, or using a candidate-gene approach and studies on cancer. All issues from Nature Genetics and PLOS genetics 2014, 2015 and 2016 (UTAI June) were screened for relevant papers. Reference lists from included and other relevant papers were also searched. For the description of the family-based study design using NGS an in-house protocol was used. Thirty-two successful studies, which covered 16 different common complex diseases, were included in this paper. We also found a single migraine study. Twenty-three studies found one or a few family specific

  2. A case-control study of risk factors for bovine cysticercosis in Danish cattle herds

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Calvo Artavia, Francisco Fernando; Nielsen, Liza Rosenbaum; Dahl, J.

    2013-01-01

    than in countries with few lightly infected cases per year. The aim of the present case-control study was to quantify associations between potential herd-level risk factors and BC in Danish cattle herds. Risk factors can be used in the design of a risk-based meat inspection system targeted towards...... a questionnaire and register data from the Danish Cattle Database were grouped into meaningful variables and used to investigate the risk factors for BC using a multivariable logistic regression model. Case herds were almost three times more likely than control herds to let all or most animals out grazing. Case...... the animals with the highest risk of BC. Cases (n = 77) included herds that hosted at least one animal diagnosed with BC at meat inspection, from 2006 to 2010. Control herds (n = 231) consisted of randomly selected herds that had not hosted any animals diagnosed with BC between 2004 and 2010. The answers from...

  3. Poultry and fish intake and risk of esophageal cancer: A meta-analysis of observational studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Gengxi; Li, Bailing; Liao, Xiaohong; Zhong, Chongjun

    2016-03-01

    Mixed results regarding the association between white meat (including poultry and fish) intake and the risk of esophageal cancer (EC) have been reported. We performed a meta-analysis to provide a quantitative assessment of this association. Relevant studies were identified in MEDLINE until December 31, 2012. Summary relative risks (SRRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were pooled with a random-effects model. A total of 20 articles, including 3990 cases with EC, were included in this meta-analysis. Compared to individuals with the lowest level of fish intake, individuals with the highest fish intake were found to have reduced risk of EC (SRRs = 0.69; 95% CIs: 0.57-0.85), while poultry intake was not associated with EC (SRRs = 0.83; 95% CIs: 0.62-1.12). Total fish consumption is associated with reduced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) risk, while poultry consumption was not associated with ESCC risk. Additionally, neither poultry nor fish consumption was associated with esophageal adenocarcinoma risk. Our results suggest that fish consumption may have a potential role in EC prevention, while poultry intake has no effect. However, because the majority of data was from case-control studies, further well-designed prospective studies are warranted. © 2013 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

  4. GASVOL 18'' gas pipeline - risk based inspection study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bjoernoey, Ola H.; Etterdal, Birger A. [Det Norske Veritas (DNV), Oslo (Norway); Guarize, Rosimar; Oliveira, Luiz F.S. [Det Norske Veritas (DNV) (Brazil); Faertes, Denise; Dias, Ricardo [TRANSPETRO - PETROBRAS Transporte S.A., Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2003-07-01

    This paper describes a risk based approach and inspection planning as part of the Pipeline Integrity Management (PIM) system for the 95.5 km long 18'' GASVOL gas pipeline in the South eastern region of Brazil transporting circa 5 000 000 m3 dry gas per day. Pipeline systems can be subject to several degradation mechanisms and inspection and monitoring are used to ensure system integrity. Modern pipeline regulations and codes are normally based on a core safety or risk philosophy. The detailed design requirements presented in design codes are practical interpretations established so as to fulfill these core objectives. A given pipeline, designed, constructed and installed according to a pipeline code is therefore the realization of a structure, which, along its whole length, meets the applicable safety objectives of that code. The main objective of Pipeline Integrity Management (PIM) is to control and document the integrity of the pipeline for its whole service life, and to do this in a cost-effective manner. DNV has a specific approach to RBI planning, starting with an initial qualitative assessment where pipelines and damage type are ranked according to risk and potential risk reduction by an inspection and then carried forward to a quantitative detailed assessment where the level of complexity and accuracy can vary based on availability of information and owner needs. Detailed assessment requires significant effort in data gathering. The findings are dependent upon the accuracy of the inspection data, and on DNV's interpretation of the pipeline reference system and simplifications in the inspection data reported. The following specific failure mechanisms were investigated: internal corrosion, external corrosion, third party interference, landslides and black powder. RBI planning, in general words, is a 'living process'. In order to optimize future inspections, it is essential that the analyses utilize the most recent information regarding

  5. Pilot Study of a Computer-Based Parental Questionnaire and Visual Profile of Obesity Risk in Healthy Preschoolers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davies, Marilyn A; Terhorst, Lauren; Zhang, Peng; Nakonechny, Amanda J; Nowalk, Mary Patricia

    2015-01-01

    This group field-tested a computer-based, parental questionnaire entitled the Childhood Obesity Risk Questionnaire 2-5 (CORQ 2-5) designed to assess obesity risk in healthy preschoolers. COR 2-5 generates a profile of seven obesity risk factors. Field studies provided good internal reliability data and evidence of discriminant validity for the CORQ 2-5. Pediatric nurse clinicians found the CORQ 2-5 profile to be clinically relevant. The CORQ 2-5 is a promising measure of obesity risk in preschoolers who attend community-based health centers for their wellchild visits and who are not yet obese. CORQ 2-5 is intended to guide provider-parental obesity risk discussions. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Architecture and design of third Qinshan nuclear power plant risk monitor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, F.; Li, Y.; Wang, J.; Wang, J.; Hu, L. [Inst. of Nuclear Energy Safety Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Hefei, Anhui, 230031 (China); School of Nuclear Science and Technology, Univ. of Science and Technology of China, No.350 Shushanhu Road, Shushan District, Hefei, Anhui, 230031 (China)

    2012-07-01

    Risk monitor is a real-time analysis tool to determine the point-in-time risk based on actual plant configuration, which is an important application of PSA (Probabilistic Safety Assessment). In this study the status and development trend of risk monitor were investigated and a risk monitor named TQRM (Third Qinshan nuclear power plant Risk Monitor) was developed. The B/S architecture and the two key computing methods pre-solved and resolving PSA model method adopted in TQRM were introduced. The functions and technical features were also presented. Now TQRM has been on-line for more than one year and used in the operation and maintenance of TQNPP. The experience demonstrates that TQRM's results are accurate and real-time, the architecture is stable, and it could be extended and maintained conveniently for any other Risk-Informed Application. (authors)

  7. Information security risk management for computerized health information systems in hospitals: a case study of Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zarei, Javad; Sadoughi, Farahnaz

    2016-01-01

    Background In recent years, hospitals in Iran – similar to those in other countries – have experienced growing use of computerized health information systems (CHISs), which play a significant role in the operations of hospitals. But, the major challenge of CHIS use is information security. This study attempts to evaluate CHIS information security risk management at hospitals of Iran. Materials and methods This applied study is a descriptive and cross-sectional research that has been conducted in 2015. The data were collected from 551 hospitals of Iran. Based on literature review, experts’ opinion, and observations at five hospitals, our intensive questionnaire was designed to assess security risk management for CHISs at the concerned hospitals, which was then sent to all hospitals in Iran by the Ministry of Health. Results Sixty-nine percent of the studied hospitals pursue information security policies and procedures in conformity with Iran Hospitals Accreditation Standards. At some hospitals, risk identification, risk evaluation, and risk estimation, as well as risk treatment, are unstructured without any specified approach or methodology. There is no significant structured approach to risk management at the studied hospitals. Conclusion Information security risk management is not followed by Iran’s hospitals and their information security policies. This problem can cause a large number of challenges for their CHIS security in future. Therefore, Iran’s Ministry of Health should develop practical policies to improve information security risk management in the hospitals of Iran. PMID:27313481

  8. Transient risk factors of acute occupational injuries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Østerlund, Anna H; Lander, Flemming; Nielsen, Kent

    2017-01-01

    Objectives The objectives of this study were to (i) identify transient risk factors of occupational injuries and (ii) determine if the risk varies with age, injury severity, job task, and industry risk level. Method A case-crossover design was used to examine the effect of seven specific transient...... risk factors (time pressure, disagreement with someone, feeling sick, being distracted by someone, non-routine task, altered surroundings, and broken machinery and materials) for occupational injuries. In the study, 1693 patients with occupational injuries were recruited from a total of 4002...... in relation to sex, age, job task, industry risk level, or injury severity. Conclusion Use of a case-crossover design identified several worker-related transient risk factors (time pressure, feeling sick, being distracted by someone) that led to significantly increased risks for occupational injuries...

  9. Smoking and high-risk mammographic parenchymal patterns: a case-control study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sala, Evis; Warren, Ruth; McCann, Jenny; Duffy, Stephen; Luben, Robert; Day, Nicholas

    2000-01-01

    Current smoking was strongly and inversely associated with high-risk patterns, after adjustment for concomitant risk factors. Relative to never smokers, current smokers were significantly less likely to have a high-risk pattern. Similar results were obtained when the analysis was confined to postmenopausal women. Past smoking was not related to the mammographic parenchymal patterns. The overall effect in postmenopausal women lost its significance when adjusted for other risk factors for P2/DY patterns that were found to be significant in the present study, although the results are still strongly suggestive. The present data indicate that adjustment for current smoking status is important when evaluating the relationship between mammographic parenchymal pattern and breast cancer risk. They also indicate that smoking is a prominent potential confounder when analyzing effects of other risk factors such as obesity-related variables. It appears that parenchymal patterns may act as an informative biomarker of the effect of cigarette smoking on breast cancer risk. Overall, epidemiological studies [1,2,3,4] have reported no substantial association between cigarette smoking and the risk of breast cancer. Some studies [5,6,7] reported a significant increase of breast cancer risk among smokers. In recent studies that addressed the association between breast cancer and cigarette smoking, however, there was some suggestion of a decreased risk [8,9,10], especially among current smokers, ranging from approximately 10 to 30% [9,10]. Brunet et al [11] reported that smoking might reduce the risk of breast cancer by 44% in carriers of BRCA1 or BRCA2 gene mutations. Wolfe [12] described four different mammographic patterns created by variations in the relative amounts of fat, epithelial and connective tissue in the breast, designated N1, P1, P2 and DY. Women with either P2 or DY pattern are considered at greater risk for breast cancer than those with N1 or P1 pattern [12

  10. [The Design Requirements for an E-Health Management Platform: Addressing the Needs of Adolescent Girls at High Risk of Metabolic Syndrome].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Mei-Chen; Chen, Wen-Chin; Liu, Chieh-Yu; Jou, Hei-Jen; Hsiao, Ya-Chu; Tsao, Lee-Ing

    2015-10-01

    The rising prevalence of metabolic syndrome among adolescents has not been effectively addressed by current campus-based health promotions. Using the Internet in these promotions may help health professionals achieve better healthcare management. The purpose of the present study was to explore the design requirements of an e-health management platform from the subjective perspective of adolescent girls who were at a high risk of metabolic syndrome. The findings may provide a reference for designing nursing interventions that more effectively promote healthly lifestyle habits to adolescents. This qualitative study employed a snowball approach and used a semi-structured interview guide to collect data. A total of 20 Taiwanese adolescent females who were at a high risk of metabolic syndrome, aged 16-20 years, able to speak Mandarin or Taiwanese, and willing to participate and to have their sessions tape-recorded were enrolled as participants and engaged individually in in-depth interviews. The constant comparative method was used to inductively analyze the interview data. Five main themes related to the e-health management platform emerged from the data. These themes included: an attractive and user-friendly website interface, access to reliable information and resources, provision of tailored health information, access to peer support, and self-monitoring and learning tools. The findings highlight the key design needs of an e-Health management platform from the perspective of adolescent girls who are at a high risk of metabolic syndrome. The identified themes may be addressed in future revisions / developments of these platforms in order to better address the needs of this vulnerable population and to effectively reduce the incidence of metabolic syndrome. The authors hope that the results of the present study may be used to provide better healthcare and support for adolescent girls with metabolic syndrome.

  11. Risk communication policy design: Cyprus compared to France and the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tourenq, Sophie; Boustras, George; Gutteling, Jan M.

    2017-01-01

    This study aims at analyzing differences between risk communication policies in Cyprus, compared to the Netherlands, and France. It analyzes risk communication policies indirectly through a qualitative analysis of the information provided by official websites, which are considered to be proxies of

  12. RAMS (Risk Analysis - Modular System) methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stenner, R.D.; Strenge, D.L.; Buck, J.W. [and others

    1996-10-01

    The Risk Analysis - Modular System (RAMS) was developed to serve as a broad scope risk analysis tool for the Risk Assessment of the Hanford Mission (RAHM) studies. The RAHM element provides risk analysis support for Hanford Strategic Analysis and Mission Planning activities. The RAHM also provides risk analysis support for the Hanford 10-Year Plan development activities. The RAMS tool draws from a collection of specifically designed databases and modular risk analysis methodologies and models. RAMS is a flexible modular system that can be focused on targeted risk analysis needs. It is specifically designed to address risks associated with overall strategy, technical alternative, and `what if` questions regarding the Hanford cleanup mission. RAMS is set up to address both near-term and long-term risk issues. Consistency is very important for any comparative risk analysis, and RAMS is designed to efficiently and consistently compare risks and produce risk reduction estimates. There is a wide range of output information that can be generated by RAMS. These outputs can be detailed by individual contaminants, waste forms, transport pathways, exposure scenarios, individuals, populations, etc. However, they can also be in rolled-up form to support high-level strategy decisions.

  13. Man, technology and risk: a study on intuitive risk assessment and attitudes towards nuclear energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Renn, O

    1981-06-01

    Using the instruments of empirical social sciences, a cross-section study was conducted comprising experiments on qualitative risk characteristics, in-depth interviews on mechanisms of risk perception and representative surveys of the public on technical risk sources, in particular with regard to nuclear energy. The results of these studies show that person-related expectations in respect of risk consequences, the possibility of personal influencing control, the severeness of risk consequences and one's own risk propensity play a significant role in the evaluation of risks.

  14. Zolpidem Administration and Risk of Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Case-Control Study in Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shih-Wei Lai

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Background/Objectives: Previous studies showed that zolpidem use could be associated with increased cancer risk, but the role of zolpidem on hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC risk remains undetermined. The study purpose was to examine the association between HCC risk and zolpidem use in Taiwan.Methods: Using the database from the Taiwan National Health Insurance Program, we designed a case-control study which consisted of 77986 subjects aged 20 years or older with newly diagnosed HCC as the case group, and 77986 subjects without HCC as the control group, from 2000 to 2011. Ever use of zolpidem was defined as a subject who had at least a prescription for zolpidem before the index date. Never use was defined as a subject who did not have a prescription for zolpidem before the index date. The association between HCC risk and zolpidem use was determined by the odds ratio (OR and 95% confidence interval (CI in a multivariable logistic regression model.Results: After adjustment for confounding factors, the adjusted OR of HCC was 1.05 (95% CI 0.97, 1.13 for subjects with ever use of zolpidem, compared with never use of zolpidem. The adjusted OR of HCC was 1.01 for subjects with increasing cumulative duration of zolpidem use for every 1 year (95% CI 0.99, 1.03, compared with never use of zolpidem.Conclusion: There is no significant association between HCC risk and zolpidem use. There is no duration-dependent effect of zolpidem use on HCC risk.

  15. Genetic and environmental contributions to cardiovascular disease risk in American Indians: the strong heart family study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    North, Kari E; Howard, Barbara V; Welty, Thomas K; Best, Lyle G; Lee, Elisa T; Yeh, J L; Fabsitz, Richard R; Roman, Mary J; MacCluer, Jean W

    2003-02-15

    The aims of the Strong Heart Family Study are to clarify the genetic determinants of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in American Indians and to map and identify genes for CVD susceptibility. The authors describe the design of the Strong Heart Family Study (conducted between 1998 and 1999) and evaluate the heritabilities of CVD risk factors in American Indians from this study. In the first phase of the study, approximately 950 individuals, aged 18 years or more, in 32 extended families, were examined. The examination consisted of a personal interview, physical examination, laboratory tests, and an ultrasound examination of the carotid arteries. The phenotypes measured during the physical examination included anthropometry, lipoproteins, blood pressure, glycemic status, and clotting factors. Heritabilities for CVD risk factor phenotypes were estimated using a variance component approach and the program SOLAR. After accounting for the effects of covariates, the authors detected significant heritabilities for many CVD risk factor phenotypes (e.g., high density lipoprotein cholesterol (heritability = 0.50) and diastolic blood pressure (heritability = 0.34)). These results suggest that heredity explains a substantial proportion of the variability of CVD risk factors and that these heritabilities are large enough to warrant a search for major risk factor genes.

  16. Trajectory Design Enhancements to Mitigate Risk for the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dichmann, Donald; Parker, Joel; Nickel, Craig; Lutz, Stephen

    2016-01-01

    The Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) will employ a highly eccentric Earth orbit, in 2:1 lunar resonance, which will be reached with a lunar flyby preceded by 3.5 phasing loops. The TESS mission has limited propellant and several constraints on the science orbit and on the phasing loops. Based on analysis and simulation, we have designed the phasing loops to reduce delta-V (DV) and to mitigate risk due to maneuver execution errors. We have automated the trajectory design process and use distributed processing to generate and optimal nominal trajectories; to check constraint satisfaction; and finally to model the effects of maneuver errors to identify trajectories that best meet the mission requirements.

  17. Integrating LCA and Risk Assessment for Decision Support

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dong, Yan; Miraglia, Simona; Manzo, Stefano

    The study aims at developing a methodology using decision analysis theory and tools to find the optimal policy (or design) of the studied system, to ensure both sustainability and meanwhile manage risks.......The study aims at developing a methodology using decision analysis theory and tools to find the optimal policy (or design) of the studied system, to ensure both sustainability and meanwhile manage risks....

  18. Development of a Premium Quality Plasma-derived IVIg (IQYMUNE®) Utilizing the Principles of Quality by Design-A Worked-through Case Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paolantonacci, Philippe; Appourchaux, Philippe; Claudel, Béatrice; Ollivier, Monique; Dennett, Richard; Siret, Laurent

    2018-01-01

    Polyvalent human normal immunoglobulins for intravenous use (IVIg), indicated for rare and often severe diseases, are complex plasma-derived protein preparations. A quality by design approach has been used to develop the Laboratoire Français du Fractionnement et des Biotechnologies new-generation IVIg, targeting a high level of purity to generate an enhanced safety profile while maintaining a high level of efficacy. A modular approach of quality by design was implemented consisting of five consecutive steps to cover all the stages from the product design to the final product control strategy.A well-defined target product profile was translated into 27 product quality attributes that formed the basis of the process design. In parallel, a product risk analysis was conducted and identified 19 critical quality attributes among the product quality attributes. Process risk analysis was carried out to establish the links between process parameters and critical quality attributes. Twelve critical steps were identified, and for each of these steps a risk mitigation plan was established.Among the different process risk mitigation exercises, five process robustness studies were conducted at qualified small scale with a design of experiment approach. For each process step, critical process parameters were identified and, for each critical process parameter, proven acceptable ranges were established. The quality risk management and risk mitigation outputs, including verification of proven acceptable ranges, were used to design the process verification exercise at industrial scale.Finally, the control strategy was established using a mix, or hybrid, of the traditional approach plus elements of the quality by design enhanced approach, as illustrated, to more robustly assign material and process controls and in order to securely meet product specifications.The advantages of this quality by design approach were improved process knowledge for industrial design and process

  19. An investigation of breast cancer risk factors in Cyprus: a case control study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hadjisavvas Andreas

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Breast cancer is the most common form of malignancy affecting women worldwide. It is also the leading cancer in females in Cyprus, with approximately 400 new cases diagnosed annually. It is well recognized that genetic variation as well as environmental factors modulate breast cancer risk. The main aim of this study was to assess the strength of associations between recognized risk factors and breast cancer among Cypriot women. This is the first epidemiological investigation on risk factors of breast cancer among the Cypriot female population. Methods We carried out a case-control study, involving 1,109 breast cancer patients and a group of 1,177 controls who were recruited while participating in the National screening programme for breast cancer. Information on demographic characteristics and potential risk factors were collected from both groups during a standardized interview. Logistic regression analysis was used to assess the strength of the association between each risk factor and breast cancer risk, before and after adjusting for the possible confounding effect of other factors. Results In multivariable models, family history of breast cancer (OR 1.64, 95% CI 1.23, 2.19 was the strongest predictor of breast cancer risk in the Cypriot population. Late menarche (OR 0.64, 95% CI 0.45, 0.92 among women reaching menarche after the age of 15 vs. before the age of 12 and breastfeeding (OR 0.74, 95% CI 0.59, 0.92 exhibited a strong protective effect. In the case of breastfeeding, the observed effect appeared stronger than the effect of pregnancy alone. Surprisingly, we also observed an inverse association between hormone replacement therapy (HRT although this may be a product of the retrospective nature of this study. Conclusion Overall the findings of our study corroborate with the results of previous investigations on descriptive epidemiology of risk factors for breast cancer. This investigation provides important background

  20. Increased risk of stroke in hypertensive women using hormone therapy: analyses based on the Danish Nurse Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Løkkegaard, Ellen; Jovanovic, Zorana; Heitmann, Berit L

    2003-01-01

    by presence of risk factors for stroke. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: In 1993, the Danish Nurse Study was established, and questionnaires on lifestyle and HT use were sent to all Danish nurses older than 44 years, of whom 19,898 (85.8%) replied. PARTICIPANTS: Postmenopausal women (n = 13...

  1. Risk modelling study for carotid endarterectomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuhan, G; Gardiner, E D; Abidia, A F; Chetter, I C; Renwick, P M; Johnson, B F; Wilkinson, A R; McCollum, P T

    2001-12-01

    The aims of this study were to identify factors that influence the risk of stroke or death following carotid endarterectomy (CEA) and to develop a model to aid in comparative audit of vascular surgeons and units. A series of 839 CEAs performed by four vascular surgeons between 1992 and 1999 was analysed. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to model the effect of 15 possible risk factors on the 30-day risk of stroke or death. Outcome was compared for four surgeons and two units after adjustment for the significant risk factors. The overall 30-day stroke or death rate was 3.9 per cent (29 of 741). Heart disease, diabetes and stroke were significant risk factors. The 30-day predicted stroke or death rates increased with increasing risk scores. The observed 30-day stroke or death rate was 3.9 per cent for both vascular units and varied from 3.0 to 4.2 per cent for the four vascular surgeons. Differences in the outcomes between the surgeons and vascular units did not reach statistical significance after risk adjustment. Diabetes, heart disease and stroke are significant risk factors for stroke or death following CEA. The risk score model identified patients at higher risk and aided in comparative audit.

  2. A Systematic Approach of Employing Quality by Design Principles: Risk Assessment and Design of Experiments to Demonstrate Process Understanding and Identify the Critical Process Parameters for Coating of the Ethylcellulose Pseudolatex Dispersion Using Non-Conventional Fluid Bed Process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kothari, Bhaveshkumar H; Fahmy, Raafat; Claycamp, H Gregg; Moore, Christine M V; Chatterjee, Sharmista; Hoag, Stephen W

    2017-05-01

    The goal of this study was to utilize risk assessment techniques and statistical design of experiments (DoE) to gain process understanding and to identify critical process parameters for the manufacture of controlled release multiparticulate beads using a novel disk-jet fluid bed technology. The material attributes and process parameters were systematically assessed using the Ishikawa fish bone diagram and failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) risk assessment methods. The high risk attributes identified by the FMEA analysis were further explored using resolution V fractional factorial design. To gain an understanding of the processing parameters, a resolution V fractional factorial study was conducted. Using knowledge gained from the resolution V study, a resolution IV fractional factorial study was conducted; the purpose of this IV study was to identify the critical process parameters (CPP) that impact the critical quality attributes and understand the influence of these parameters on film formation. For both studies, the microclimate, atomization pressure, inlet air volume, product temperature (during spraying and curing), curing time, and percent solids in the coating solutions were studied. The responses evaluated were percent agglomeration, percent fines, percent yield, bead aspect ratio, median particle size diameter (d50), assay, and drug release rate. Pyrobuttons® were used to record real-time temperature and humidity changes in the fluid bed. The risk assessment methods and process analytical tools helped to understand the novel disk-jet technology and to systematically develop models of the coating process parameters like process efficiency and the extent of curing during the coating process.

  3. Prospective study on dietary intakes of folate, betaine, and choline and cardiovascular disease risk in women.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dalmeijer, G.W.; Olthof, M.R.; Verhoef, P.; Bots, M.L.; van der Schouw, Y.T.

    2008-01-01

    Objective: To investigate the association between dietary intakes of folate, betaine and choline and the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Design: Prospective cohort study. Subjects: A total of 16165 women aged 49-70 years without prior CVD. Subjects were breast cancer screening participants in

  4. Risk of lung cancer associated with domestic use of coal in Xuanwei, China: retrospective cohort study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Barone-Adesi, F.; Chapman, R.S.; Silverman, D.T.; He, X.; Hu, W.; Vermeulen, R.; Ning, B.; Fraumeni, J.F.; Rothman, N.; Lan, Q.

    2012-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To estimate the risk of lung cancer associated with the use of different types of coal for household cooking and heating. SETTING: Xuanwei County, Yunnan Province, China. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study (follow-up 1976-96) comparing mortality from lung cancer between lifelong users of

  5. Behavioural adjustment in response to increased predation risk: a study in three duck species.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cédric Zimmer

    Full Text Available Predation directly triggers behavioural decisions designed to increase immediate survival. However, these behavioural modifications can have long term costs. There is therefore a trade-off between antipredator behaviours and other activities. This trade-off is generally considered between vigilance and only one other behaviour, thus neglecting potential compensations. In this study, we considered the effect of an increase in predation risk on the diurnal time-budget of three captive duck species during the wintering period. We artificially increased predation risk by disturbing two groups of 14 mallard and teals at different frequencies, and one group of 14 tufted ducks with a radio-controlled stressor. We recorded foraging, vigilance, preening and sleeping durations the week before, during and after disturbance sessions. Disturbed groups were compared to an undisturbed control group. We showed that in all three species, the increase in predation risk resulted in a decrease in foraging and preening and led to an increase in sleeping. It is worth noting that contrary to common observations, vigilance did not increase. However, ducks are known to be vigilant while sleeping. This complex behavioural adjustment therefore seems to be optimal as it may allow ducks to reduce their predation risk. Our results highlight the fact that it is necessary to encompass the whole individual time-budget when studying behavioural modifications under predation risk. Finally, we propose that studies of behavioural time-budget changes under predation risk should be included in the more general framework of the starvation-predation risk trade-off.

  6. Improving interMediAte Risk management. MARK study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Garcia-Gil Maria

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Cardiovascular risk functions fail to identify more than 50% of patients who develop cardiovascular disease. This is especially evident in the intermediate-risk patients in which clinical management becomes difficult. Our purpose is to analyze if ankle-brachial index (ABI, measures of arterial stiffness, postprandial glucose, glycosylated hemoglobin, self-measured blood pressure and presence of comorbidity are independently associated to incidence of vascular events and whether they can improve the predictive capacity of current risk equations in the intermediate-risk population. Methods/Design This project involves 3 groups belonging to REDIAPP (RETICS RD06/0018 from 3 Spanish regions. We will recruit a multicenter cohort of 2688 patients at intermediate risk (coronary risk between 5 and 15% or vascular death risk between 3-5% over 10 years and no history of atherosclerotic disease, selected at random. We will record socio-demographic data, information on diet, physical activity, comorbidity and intermittent claudication. We will measure ABI, pulse wave velocity and cardio ankle vascular index at rest and after a light intensity exercise. Blood pressure and anthropometric data will be also recorded. We will also quantify lipids, glucose and glycosylated hemoglobin in a fasting blood sample and postprandial capillary glucose. Eighteen months after the recruitment, patients will be followed up to determine the incidence of vascular events (later follow-ups are planned at 5 and 10 years. We will analyze whether the new proposed risk factors contribute to improve the risk functions based on classic risk factors. Discussion Primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases is a priority in public health policy of developed and developing countries. The fundamental strategy consists in identifying people in a high risk situation in which preventive measures are effective and efficient. Improvement of these predictions in our country

  7. Classroom-Based Phonological Sensitivity Intervention (PSI) Using a Narrative Platform: An Experimental Study of First Graders at Risk for a Reading Disability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ritter, Michaela J.; Saxon, Terrill F.

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to assess the effectiveness of classroom-based phonological sensitivity intervention (PSI) using a narrative platform for children in first grade who are at risk for a reading disability. Participants consisted of 59 first graders identified as at risk for later reading impairments. At-risk designation was dictated by…

  8. Study On Risk Handling Strategy Of Road Contruction Projects In Jayapura City

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irianto

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Project risk is an event or an uncertain condition which if it appears will have a threat on the project object. Many contractors still do not understand the threats that occur in the project they still assume that risks are always harmful. Based on data from the Papua Public Works procurement service that the implementation of road improvement projects always faces problems. This research is an explorative and descriptive study which explores the risks threats that occur in the project from the contractors perspective in Jayapura Papua Province Indonesia. The object of this research is the company contractor involved in the implementation of road improvement project in Jayapura whereas the respondent is the project manager and the field supervisor involved in the implementation of road improvement project The analysis result shows that the overall level of risk is in very low category and the biggest risks affecting contractors in sequence are 1 material delays from suppliers 2 material inventories 3 design difficulties 4 incorrectly shipped material volumes 5 changes to specifications by the owner 6 difficulty in obtaining materials and equipment 7 material price increases 8 over quality 9 damage to machine tools 10 weakening the bearing capacity of subgrade soil. While the response to risks threats that occur in road improvement projects is to reduce and avoid.

  9. The Mediterranean healthy eating, ageing, and lifestyle (MEAL) study: rationale and study design.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grosso, Giuseppe; Marventano, Stefano; D'Urso, Maurizio; Mistretta, Antonio; Galvano, Fabio

    2017-08-01

    There is accumulating evidence suggesting that Mediterranean lifestyles, including nutrition and sleeping patterns as well as social integration, may play a role in reducing age-related diseases. However, the literature is mostly deficient of evidence provided by Italian Mediterranean islands that more closely adhered to the originally described lifestyles. In this paper, we described the rationale and the study design of the Mediterranean healthy Eating, Ageing, and Lifestyle (MEAL) study, a prospective population-based cohort established in Sicily, southern Italy. The main exposures investigated are classical determinants of health, including demographic, nutritional habits, smoking and physical activity status, as well as eating-related behaviors, sleeping habits, sun exposure, social resources, and perceived stress. Anthropometric measurements will be collected. The main outcomes included depression, quality of life, and, after the follow-up period, also cardiovascular disease and cancer. The MEAL study may provide important data to increase our knowledge regarding the prevalence, incidence, and risk factors of age-related disorders in the Mediterranean region.

  10. Risk Based Corrosion Studies at SRS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoffman, E.

    2010-01-01

    TYPE I and II (ASTM 285-B) - Experienced stress corrosion cracking (SCC), 2 have been closed; 22 scheduled for closure by 2017, and No active leak sites today. TYPE III (ASTM A516-70 and A537 Class I) - Post-fabrication relief of weld residual stresses, Improved resistance to SCC and brittle fracture, No leakage history, and Receives new waste. The objectives are to utilize statistical methods to reduce conservatism in current chemistry control program; and express nitrite inhibitor limits in terms of pitting risk on waste tank steel. Conclusions are: (1) A statistically designed experimental study has been undertaken to improve the effectiveness of the minimum nitrite concentrations to inhibit pitting corrosion; (2) Mixture/amount model supports that pitting depends on the ratio of aggressive to inhibitive anions, as well as the concentration of each species; (3) Secondary aggressive species, Cl - and SO 4 2- , significantly effect the corrosion response; and (4) Results support the reduction of the chemistry control nitrite inhibitor concentrations in the regime of 0.8-1.0 M nitrate.

  11. Medical risk factors associated with cholangiocarcinoma in Taiwan: a population-based case-control study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeffrey S Chang

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Cholangiocarcinoma, including intra- and extrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma, is a rare but highly lethal cancer. Despite effort in finding the risk factors of cholangiocarcinoma, the causes of most cholangiocarcinoma remain unknown. This study utilized a population-based case-control design using data from the National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD of Taiwan to assess the medical conditions associated with cholangiocarcinoma. METHODS: 5,157 incident cases of cholangiocarcinoma diagnosed during 2004 to 2008 and 20,628 controls matched to the cases on sex, age, and time of diagnosis (reference date for the controls were identified from the NHIRD. Medical risk factors were ascertained from the NHIRD for each individual. Conditional logistic regression was performed to evaluate the association between cholangiocarcinoma and each medical risk factor. RESULTS: The results showed that factors associated with an increased risk of cholangiocarcinoma included cholangitis, cholelithiasis, cholecystitis, cirrhosis of liver, alcoholic liver disease, chronic non-alcoholic liver disease, hepatitis B, hepatitis C, diabetes, chronic pancreatitis, inflammatory bowel disease, and peptic ulcer. In addition, sex and age differences were observed. CONCLUSIONS: This study confirms the association between cholangiocarcinoma and several less established risk factors, including diabetes, inflammatory bowel disease, hepatitis B, hepatitis C, and peptic ulcer (proxy for the presence of Helicobacter Pylori. Future studies should focus on finding additional environmental and genetic causes of cholangiocarcinoma.

  12. Motoric Cognitive Risk Syndrome and Falls Risk: A Multi-Center Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Callisaya, Michele L.; Ayers, Emmeline; Barzilai, Nir; Ferrucci, Luigi; Guralnik, Jack M.; Lipton, Richard B.; Otahal, Petr; Srikanth, Velandai K.; Verghese, Joe

    2016-01-01

    Background The Motoric Cognitive Risk Syndrome (MCR) is characterized by slow gait speed and cognitive complaints. Objectives The objective of this study was to determine if the presence of MCR increases the risk of falls in older people. Methods Individual participant data (n = 6,204) from five longitudinal studies from three countries were used for this analysis. MCR diagnosis was defined as both the presence of objectively measured slow gait speed and subjective cognitive complaints in those without dementia or mobility disability. Falls were prospectively ascertained using phone calls or questionnaires. Log binomial regression was performed to determine if MCR increased the risk of falls separately in each cohort. Random effects meta-analysis was used to pool results from all cohorts. Results The mean age of participants was 74.9 (SD 6.8) years and 44% (n = 2728) were male. Overall 33.9% (n = 2104) reported a fall over follow-up. Pooled relative risk of MCR with any falls was RR 1.44 95% CI 1.16, 1.79. The components of MCR, slow gait (RR 1.30 95% CI 1.14, 1.47) and cognitive complaint (RR 1.25, 95% CI 1.07, 1.46) were also associated with an increased risk of any falls. In sub-analyses MCR was associated with any fall independent of previous falls (RR 1.29 95% CI 1.09, 1.53) and with multiple falls (RR 1.77, 95% CI 1.25, 2.51). Conclusion MCR is associated with an increased risk of falls. The increase in risk was higher than for its individual components. The simplicity of the MCR makes it an attractive falls risk screening tool for the clinic. PMID:27340851

  13. Rationale and study design of the Japan environment and children’s study (JECS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    Background There is global concern over significant threats from a wide variety of environmental hazards to which children face. Large-scale and long-term birth cohort studies are needed for better environmental management based on sound science. The primary objective of the Japan Environment and Children’s Study (JECS), a nation-wide birth cohort study that started its recruitment in January 2011, is to elucidate environmental factors that affect children’s health and development. Methods/Design Approximately 100,000 expecting mothers who live in designated study areas will be recruited over a 3-year period from January 2011. Participating children will be followed until they reach 13 years of age. Exposure to environmental factors will be assessed by chemical analyses of bio-specimens (blood, cord blood, urine, breast milk, and hair), household environment measurements, and computational simulations using monitoring data (e.g. ambient air quality monitoring) as well as questionnaires. JECS’ priority outcomes include reproduction/pregnancy complications, congenital anomalies, neuropsychiatric disorders, immune system disorders, and metabolic/endocrine system disorders. Genetic factors, socioeconomic status, and lifestyle factors will also be examined as covariates and potential confounders. To maximize representativeness, we adopted provider-mediated community-based recruitment. Discussion Through JECS, chemical substances to which children are exposed during the fetal stage or early childhood will be identified. The JECS results will be translated to better risk assessment and management to provide healthy environment for next generations. PMID:24410977

  14. Probabilistic Design of Coastal Flood Defences in Vietnam

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mai Van, C.

    2010-01-01

    This study further develops the method of probabilistic design and to address a knowledge gap in its application regarding safety and reliability, risk assessment and risk evaluation to the fields of flood defences. The thesis discusses: - a generic probabilistic design framework for assessing flood

  15. Daytime napping and risk of type 2 diabetes: a meta-analysis of prospective studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Guo-Chong; Liu, Meng-Meng; Chen, Li-Hua; Xu, Jia-Ying; Hidayat, Khemayanto; Li, Fu-Rong; Qin, Li-Qiang

    2017-06-13

    Prospective studies reported inconsistent findings on the relationship between daytime napping and risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D). Categorized and dose-response meta-analyses were performed to quantify this relation. Potentially eligible studies were identified by searching PubMed and Embase databases. Dose-response effects were assessed by the generalized least squares trend estimation and study-specific summary relative risks (RRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were computed with a random-effects model. Seven prospective studies including one US, four European, and two Chinese cohorts involving 249,077 participants and 13,237 cases of T2D were included. The overall analyses showed a 17% increased risk of T2D when comparing habitual nappers with non-nappers (RR = 1.17, 95% CI 1.08-1.27). By region, the summary RR was 1.21 (95% CI 1.17-1.26), 1.15 (95% CI 1.03-1.30) and 1.23 (95% CI 0.87-1.73) for the US, European, and Chinese studies, respectively. Limiting to five studies that excluded subjects with known major chronic disorders yielded a summary RR of 1.16 (95% CI 1.03-1.30). A dose-response analysis suggested an 11% (95% CI 7-16%) increased T2D risk for each increment in daytime napping of 30 min/day and, despite no evidence for nonlinearity (P nonlinearity  = 0.65), the increased risk of T2D for short nap (napping is associated with an increased risk of T2D. Given the limited number of cohorts and inconsistency in terms of methodological and population characteristics across these cohorts, residual confounders and/or reverse causality cannot be fully addressed, and our findings should be interpreted with great caution. Future well-designed prospective studies are still warranted.

  16. User Interaction in Semi-Automatic Segmentation of Organs at Risk: a Case Study in Radiotherapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramkumar, Anjana; Dolz, Jose; Kirisli, Hortense A; Adebahr, Sonja; Schimek-Jasch, Tanja; Nestle, Ursula; Massoptier, Laurent; Varga, Edit; Stappers, Pieter Jan; Niessen, Wiro J; Song, Yu

    2016-04-01

    Accurate segmentation of organs at risk is an important step in radiotherapy planning. Manual segmentation being a tedious procedure and prone to inter- and intra-observer variability, there is a growing interest in automated segmentation methods. However, automatic methods frequently fail to provide satisfactory result, and post-processing corrections are often needed. Semi-automatic segmentation methods are designed to overcome these problems by combining physicians' expertise and computers' potential. This study evaluates two semi-automatic segmentation methods with different types of user interactions, named the "strokes" and the "contour", to provide insights into the role and impact of human-computer interaction. Two physicians participated in the experiment. In total, 42 case studies were carried out on five different types of organs at risk. For each case study, both the human-computer interaction process and quality of the segmentation results were measured subjectively and objectively. Furthermore, different measures of the process and the results were correlated. A total of 36 quantifiable and ten non-quantifiable correlations were identified for each type of interaction. Among those pairs of measures, 20 of the contour method and 22 of the strokes method were strongly or moderately correlated, either directly or inversely. Based on those correlated measures, it is concluded that: (1) in the design of semi-automatic segmentation methods, user interactions need to be less cognitively challenging; (2) based on the observed workflows and preferences of physicians, there is a need for flexibility in the interface design; (3) the correlated measures provide insights that can be used in improving user interaction design.

  17. Non-Hodgkin's lymphoma risk derived from exposure to organic solvents: a review of epidemiologic studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rêgo Marco Antônio V.

    1998-01-01

    Full Text Available The rate of non-Hodgkin's lymphomas (NHL has increased around the world during the last decades. Apart from the role of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV infection in the development of NHL, exposure to chemical agents like phenoxyacetic pesticides, hair dyes, metal fumes and organic solvents are suspected to be involved. The present review evaluates the results of studies that directly or indirectly searched for an association between solvent exposure and NHL. The selected studies comprised those published from 1979 to 1997, designed to investigate risk factors for NHL, whether specifically looking for solvent exposure or for general risks in which solvent exposure could be included. In 25 of the 45 reviewed studies (55.5%, fifty-four statistically significant associations between NHL and solvent exposure related occupations or industries were reported. Statistical significance was more frequently shown in studies where solvent exposure was more accurately defined. In eighteen of such studies, 13 (72.2% defined or suggested organic solvents as possible risk factors for NHL.

  18. Non-Hodgkin's lymphoma risk derived from exposure to organic solvents: a review of epidemiologic studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco Antônio V. Rêgo

    Full Text Available The rate of non-Hodgkin's lymphomas (NHL has increased around the world during the last decades. Apart from the role of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV infection in the development of NHL, exposure to chemical agents like phenoxyacetic pesticides, hair dyes, metal fumes and organic solvents are suspected to be involved. The present review evaluates the results of studies that directly or indirectly searched for an association between solvent exposure and NHL. The selected studies comprised those published from 1979 to 1997, designed to investigate risk factors for NHL, whether specifically looking for solvent exposure or for general risks in which solvent exposure could be included. In 25 of the 45 reviewed studies (55.5%, fifty-four statistically significant associations between NHL and solvent exposure related occupations or industries were reported. Statistical significance was more frequently shown in studies where solvent exposure was more accurately defined. In eighteen of such studies, 13 (72.2% defined or suggested organic solvents as possible risk factors for NHL.

  19. The adoption and design of enterprise risk management practices : An empirical study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Paape, L.; Speklé, R.F.

    2010-01-01

    Using data from 825 organizations, we examine (1) the extent of ERM implementation and the factors that are associated with cross-sectional differences in the level of ERM adoption, and (2) specific ERM design choices and their effect on perceived ERM effectiveness. Broadly consistent with previous

  20. Assessment of the Fire Risk Levels in an Office Building and a Nightclub with Prescriptive Designs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yilmaz, D.; Steffensen, F.B.; Jomaas, Grunde

    2014-01-01

    A comparison of the risk level of an office building and a nightclub with code compliant prescriptive designs was conducted in order to evaluate whether an uniform safety level of the two occupancy types can be established. A risk assessment method using Monte Carlo simulations and 1- and 2-zone......-movement time and the movement time were adjusted for the required safe egress time (RSET) of the nightclub. The number of simulations required in order to obtain reliable results was considered sufficient at 20,000. The comparison of the risk profiles of the nightclub and the office building showed significant...... difference in risk levels, with that of the nightclub being substantially higher. The higher risk level in the nightclub is caused by a relatively fast mean value of the fire growth rate and the high number of occupants. Hence, the requirements in the prescriptive code do not ensure a similar safety level...

  1. Study design and the estimation of the size of key populations at risk of HIV: lessons from Viet Nam.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Safarnejad, Ali; Groot, Wim; Pavlova, Milena

    2018-01-30

    Estimation of the size of populations at risk of HIV is a key activity in the surveillance of the HIV epidemic. The existing framework for considering future research needs may provide decision-makers with a basis for a fair process of deciding on the methods of the estimation of the size of key populations at risk of HIV. This study explores the extent to which stakeholders involved with population size estimation agree with this framework, and thus, the study updates the framework. We conducted 16 in-depth interviews with key informants from city and provincial governments, NGOs, research institutes, and the community of people at risk of HIV. Transcripts were analyzed and reviewed for significant statements pertaining to criteria. Variations and agreement around criteria were analyzed, and emerging criteria were validated against the existing framework. Eleven themes emerged which are relevant to the estimation of the size of populations at risk of HIV in Viet Nam. Findings on missing criteria, inclusive participation, community perspectives and conflicting weight and direction of criteria provide insights for an improved framework for the prioritization of population size estimation methods. The findings suggest that the exclusion of community members from decision-making on population size estimation methods in Viet Nam may affect the validity, use, and efficiency of the evidence generated. However, a wider group of decision-makers, including community members among others, may introduce diverse definitions, weight and direction of criteria. Although findings here may not apply to every country with a transitioning economy or to every emerging epidemic, the principles of fair decision-making, value of community participation in decision-making and the expected challenges faced, merit consideration in every situation.

  2. Towards non-conventional methods of designing register-based epidemiological studies: An application to pediatric research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gong, Tong; Brew, Bronwyn; Sjölander, Arvid; Almqvist, Catarina

    2017-07-01

    Various epidemiological designs have been applied to investigate the causes and consequences of fetal growth restriction in register-based observational studies. This review seeks to provide an overview of several conventional designs, including cohort, case-control and more recently applied non-conventional designs such as family-based designs. We also discuss some practical points regarding the application and interpretation of family-based designs. Definitions of each design, the study population, the exposure and the outcome measures are briefly summarised. Examples of study designs are taken from the field of low birth-weight research for illustrative purposes. Also examined are relative advantages and disadvantages of each design in terms of assumptions, potential selection and information bias, confounding and generalisability. Kinship data linkage, statistical models and result interpretation are discussed specific to family-based designs. When all information is retrieved from registers, there is no evident preference of the case-control design over the cohort design to estimate odds ratios. All conventional designs included in the review are prone to bias, particularly due to residual confounding. Family-based designs are able to reduce such bias and strengthen causal inference. In the field of low birth-weight research, family-based designs have been able to confirm a negative association not confounded by genetic or shared environmental factors between low birth weight and the risk of asthma. We conclude that there is a broader need for family-based design in observational research as evidenced by the meaningful contributions to the understanding of the potential causal association between low birth weight and subsequent outcomes.

  3. The influence of risk mitigation measures on the risks, costs and routing of CO2 pipelines

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Knoope, M. M J|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/364248149; Raben, I. M E; Ramírez, A.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/284852414; Spruijt, M. P N; Faaij, A. P C|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/10685903X

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this study was to analyze whether, and if so, in what way risks would influence the design, costs and routing of CO2 pipelines. This article assesses locational and societal risks of CO2 pipeline transport and analyses whether rerouting or implementing additional risk mitigation measures

  4. The influence of risk mitigation measures on the risks, costs and routing of CO 2pipelines

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Knoope, M.M.J.; Raben. I.M.E.; Ramírez, A.; Spruijt, M.P.N.; Faaij, A.P.C.

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this study was to analyze whether, and if so, in what way risks would influence the design,costs and routing of CO2pipelines. This article assesses locational and societal risks of CO2pipelinetransport and analyses whether rerouting or implementing additional risk mitigation measures is

  5. Evidence Report, Risk of Inadequate Design of Human and Automation/Robotic Integration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zumbado, Jennifer Rochlis; Billman, Dorrit; Feary, Mike; Green, Collin

    2011-01-01

    The success of future exploration missions depends, even more than today, on effective integration of humans and technology (automation and robotics). This will not emerge by chance, but by design. Both crew and ground personnel will need to do more demanding tasks in more difficult conditions, amplifying the costs of poor design and the benefits of good design. This report has looked at the importance of good design and the risks from poor design from several perspectives: 1) If the relevant functions needed for a mission are not identified, then designs of technology and its use by humans are unlikely to be effective: critical functions will be missing and irrelevant functions will mislead or drain attention. 2) If functions are not distributed effectively among the (multiple) participating humans and automation/robotic systems, later design choices can do little to repair this: additional unnecessary coordination work may be introduced, workload may be redistributed to create problems, limited human attentional resources may be wasted, and the capabilities of both humans and technology underused. 3) If the design does not promote accurate understanding of the capabilities of the technology, the operators will not use the technology effectively: the system may be switched off in conditions where it would be effective, or used for tasks or in contexts where its effectiveness may be very limited. 4) If an ineffective interaction design is implemented and put into use, a wide range of problems can ensue. Many involve lack of transparency into the system: operators may be unable or find it very difficult to determine a) the current state and changes of state of the automation or robot, b) the current state and changes in state of the system being controlled or acted on, and c) what actions by human or by system had what effects. 5) If the human interfaces for operation and control of robotic agents are not designed to accommodate the unique points of view and

  6. Hybrid Risk Management Methodology: A Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacky Siu-Lun Ting

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Risk management is a decision-making process involving considerations of political, social, economic and engineering factors with relevant risk assessments relating to a potential hazard. In the last decade, a number of risk management tools are introduced and employed to manage and minimize the uncertainty and threats realization to the organizations. However, the focus of these methodologies are different; in which companies need to adopt various risk management principles to visualize a full picture of the organizational risk level. Regarding to this, this paper presents a new approach of risk management that integrates Hierarchical Holographic Modeling (HHM, Enterprise Risk Management (ERM and Business Recovery Planning (BCP for identifying and assessing risks as well as managing the consequences of realized residual risks. To illustrate the procedures of the proposed methodology, a logistic company ABC Limited is chosen to serve as a case study Through applying HHM and ERM to investigate and assess the risk, ABC Limited can be better evaluated the potential risks and then took the responsive actions (e.g. BCP to handle the risks and crisis in near future.

  7. Design and implementation of an online risk monitor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Majdara, A.; Nematollah, M. R.; Haddad, K.; Sepanloo, K.

    2006-01-01

    Probabilistic Safety Assessment is a powerful method for evaluating the safety of nuclear facilities. Probabilistic Safety Assessment models are the basis of online risk monitors, which can be utilized for monitoring the online risk. In this paper a newly developed risk monitor called Safety Assessment Tool is presented, and its main features and capabilities are introduced. Some of these features are: graphical event/fault tree developing interface, a 30-day risk profile, performing importance analysis, different administrative levels, and handling time dependent failure data. Safety Assessment Tool can be utilized in nuclear power plants, research reactors, etc. as an online assistant to manage safety issues and prevent high-risk configurations

  8. Design of risk communication strategies based on risk perception among farmers exposed to pesticides in Rio de Janeiro State, Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peres, Frederico; Rodrigues, Karla Meneses; da Silva Peixoto Belo, Mariana Soares; Moreira, Josino Costa; Claudio, Luz

    2013-01-01

    This study aims to assess pesticide exposure risk perception among farmers from three rural areas of Nova Friburgo, Rio de Janeiro State, Brazil. Data were collected through semi-structured interviews with 66 adults and participatory workshops with 27 teenagers and analyzed through content analysis techniques. Systematized results were discussed at local meetings, and two risk communication initiatives were devised. Study results demonstrated the use of defensive strategies by men and a diminished risk perception among women. Teenagers relied on parents to develop their own work practices. These findings supported the importance of cultural and social determinants of farmers' understandings of risk and of the relevance of different pesticide exposure pathways. Risk perceptions and work practices are strongly influenced by local cultural patterns and, therefore, must be taken into account when developing effective intervention strategies, including risk communication initiatives. Copyright © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  9. DESIGN PACKAGE 1E SYSTEM SAFETY ANALYSIS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    M. Salem

    1995-06-23

    The purpose of this analysis is to systematically identify and evaluate hazards related to the Yucca Mountain Project Exploratory Studies Facility (ESF) Design Package 1E, Surface Facilities, (for a list of design items included in the package 1E system safety analysis see section 3). This process is an integral part of the systems engineering process; whereby safety is considered during planning, design, testing, and construction. A largely qualitative approach was used since a radiological System Safety Analysis is not required. The risk assessment in this analysis characterizes the accident scenarios associated with the Design Package 1E structures/systems/components(S/S/Cs) in terms of relative risk and includes recommendations for mitigating all identified risks. The priority for recommending and implementing mitigation control features is: (1) Incorporate measures to reduce risks and hazards into the structure/system/component design, (2) add safety devices and capabilities to the designs that reduce risk, (3) provide devices that detect and warn personnel of hazardous conditions, and (4) develop procedures and conduct training to increase worker awareness of potential hazards, on methods to reduce exposure to hazards, and on the actions required to avoid accidents or correct hazardous conditions.

  10. Individual and occupational risk factors for knee osteoarthritis – Study protocol of a case control study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bouillon Bertil

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Knee osteoarthritis (OA is one of the frequent and functionally impairing disorders of the musculoskeletal system. In the literature, a number of occupational risk factors are discussed as being related to the development and progress of knee joint diseases, e.g. working in kneeling or squatting posture, lifting and carrying of heavy weights. The importance of the single risk factors and the possibility of prevention are currently under discussion. Besides the occupational factors, a number of individual risk factors are important, too. The distinction between work-related factors and individual factors is crucial in assessing the risk and in deriving preventive measures in occupational health. In existing studies, the occupational stress is determined mainly by surveys in employees and/or by making assumptions about individual occupations. Direct evaluation of occupational exposure has been performed only exceptionally. The aim of the research project ArGon is the assessment of different occupational factors in relation to individual factors (e.g. constitutional factors, leisure time activities, sports, which might influence the development and/or progression of knee (OA. The project is designed as a case control study. Methods/Design To raise valid data about the physical stress associated with occupational and leisure time activities, patients with and without knee OA are questioned by means of a standardised questionnaire and an interview. The required sample size was estimated to 800 cases and an equal number of controls. The degree and localisation of the knee cartilage or joint damages in the cases are documented on the basis of radiological, arthroscopic and/or operative findings in a patient record. Furthermore, occupational exposure is analysed at selected workplaces. To evaluate the answers provided in the questionnaire, work analysis is performed. Discussion In this research project, specific information on the

  11. Task shifting of frontline community health workers for cardiovascular risk reduction: design and rationale of a cluster randomised controlled trial (DISHA study) in India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeemon, Panniyammakal; Narayanan, Gitanjali; Kondal, Dimple; Kahol, Kashvi; Bharadwaj, Ashok; Purty, Anil; Negi, Prakash; Ladhani, Sulaiman; Sanghvi, Jyoti; Singh, Kuldeep; Kapoor, Deksha; Sobti, Nidhi; Lall, Dorothy; Manimunda, Sathyaprakash; Dwivedi, Supriya; Toteja, Gurudyal; Prabhakaran, Dorairaj

    2016-03-15

    Effective task-shifting interventions targeted at reducing the global cardiovascular disease (CVD) epidemic in low and middle-income countries (LMICs) are urgently needed. DISHA is a cluster randomised controlled trial conducted across 10 sites (5 in phase 1 and 5 in phase 2) in India in 120 clusters. At each site, 12 clusters were randomly selected from a district. A cluster is defined as a small village with 250-300 households and well defined geographical boundaries. They were then randomly allocated to intervention and control clusters in a 1:1 allocation sequence. If any of the intervention and control clusters were workers (mainly Anganwadi workers and ASHA workers) and a post intervention survey in a representative sample. The study staff had no information on intervention allocation until the completion of the baseline survey. In order to ensure comparability of data across sites, the DISHA study follows a common protocol and manual of operation with standardized measurement techniques. Our study is the largest community based cluster randomised trial in low and middle-income country settings designed to test the effectiveness of 'task shifting' interventions involving frontline health workers for cardiovascular risk reduction. CTRI/2013/10/004049 . Registered 7 October 2013.

  12. Rationale and study design for a randomised controlled trial to reduce sedentary time in adults at risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus: project stand (Sedentary Time ANd diabetes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wilmot Emma G

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The rising prevalence of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM is a major public health problem. There is an urgent need for effective lifestyle interventions to prevent the development of T2DM. Sedentary behaviour (sitting time has recently been identified as a risk factor for diabetes, often independent of the time spent in moderate-to-vigorous physical activity. Project STAND (Sedentary Time ANd Diabetes is a study which aims to reduce sedentary behaviour in younger adults at high risk of T2DM. Methods/Design A reduction in sedentary time is targeted using theory driven group structured education. The STAND programme is subject to piloting and process evaluation in line with the MRC framework for complex interventions. Participants are encouraged to self-monitor and self-regulate their behaviour. The intervention is being assessed in a randomised controlled trial with 12 month follow up. Inclusion criteria are a aged 18-40 years with a BMI in the obese range; b 18-40 years with a BMI in the overweight range plus an additional risk factor for T2DM. Participants are randomised to the intervention (n = 89 or control (n = 89 arm. The primary outcome is a reduction in sedentary behaviour at 12 months as measured by an accelerometer (count Conclusions This is the first UK trial to address sedentary behaviour change in a population of younger adults at risk of T2DM. The results will provide a platform for the development of a range of future multidisciplinary interventions in this rapidly expanding high-risk population. Trial registration Current controlled trials ISRCTN08434554, MRC project 91409.

  13. Telemetry system for monitoring the ECG for patients with high cardiovascular risk. Main design requirements and technical solutions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodriguez, J; Meissimilly, G; Berovides, JD

    2005-01-01

    In this paper the main design requirements concerning the setting up of a telemetry ECG monitoring system are presented. The design's most important technical solutions as well as some details are also discussed. This system is intended to provide skilled medical assistance during the cardiac rehabilitation of both asymptomatic and high risk coronary patients

  14. A prospective cohort study of endometriosis and subsequent risk of infertility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prescott, J.; Farland, L.V.; Tobias, D.K.; Gaskins, A.J.; Spiegelman, D.; Chavarro, J.E.; Rich-Edwards, J.W.; Barbieri, R.L.; Missmer, S.A.

    2016-01-01

    STUDY QUESTION Is there a temporal relationship between endometriosis and infertility? SUMMARY ANSWER Endometriosis is associated with a higher risk of subsequent infertility, but only among women age infertile women undergoing laparoscopic examination. Whether endometriosis is a cause of infertility or an incidental discovery during the infertility examination is unknown. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION This study included data collected from 58 427 married premenopausal female nurses infertility risk (defined as attempting to conceive for >12 months) among women with and without endometriosis. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE We identified 4612 incident cases of infertility due to any cause over 362 219 person-years of follow-up. Compared with women without a history of endometriosis, women with endometriosis had an age-adjusted 2-fold increased risk of incident infertility (HR = 2.12, 95% CI = 1.76–2.56) that attenuated slightly after accounting for parity. The relationship with endometriosis was only observed among women infertility was similar subsequent to endometriosis diagnosis. Among women with primary infertility, 50% became parous after the endometriosis diagnosis, and among all women with endometriosis, 83% were parous by age 40 years. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION We did not have information on participants' intentions to conceive, but by restricting the analytic population to married women we increased the likelihood that pregnancies were planned (and therefore infertility would be recognized). Women in our cohort with undiagnosed asymptomatic endometriosis will be misclassified as unexposed. However, the small proportion of these women are diluted among the >50 000 women accurately classified as endometriosis-free, minimizing the impact of exposure misclassification on the effect estimates. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS This study supports a temporal association between endometriosis and infertility risk. Our prospective analysis indicates

  15. A qualitative descriptive study of risk reduction for coronary disease among the Hong Kong Chinese.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, Choi Wan; Lopez, Violeta

    2014-01-01

    Achieving optimal control and reduction in coronary heart disease (CHD) risks in Hong Kong (HK) remains significant and requires exploring. This article addresses the ability to reduce CHD risks among the HK Chinese. Through secondary analysis, a qualitative descriptive design using focus group interviews and content analysis were adopted. Older and younger adults were invited for the study. An interview schedule was used to guide discussions during focus group interviews. Four categories emerged from the data: planning of health actions, control of risk-reducing behavior, perceived opportunities for understanding CHD, and chest pain appraisal. Local culture and population needs play a central role in disease perception and prevention. The findings are essential to target strategies for initiating health acts for younger adults and establish public education resources that underscore understanding of CHD risk, symptom recognition, and disease management, particularly among those middle-aged and older people at high risk and with the diseased populations. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  16. Study designs may influence results

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johansen, Christoffer; Schüz, Joachim; Andreasen, Anne-Marie Serena

    2017-01-01

    appeared to show an inverse association, whereas nested case-control and cohort studies showed no association. For allergies, the inverse association was observed irrespective of study design. We recommend that the questionnaire-based case-control design be placed lower in the hierarchy of studies...... for establishing cause-and-effect for diseases such as glioma. We suggest that a state-of-the-art case-control study should, as a minimum, be accompanied by extensive validation of the exposure assessment methods and the representativeness of the study sample with regard to the exposures of interest. Otherwise...

  17. Prognostic study of cardiac events in Japanese high risk hemodialysis patients using I-BMIPP-SPECT: B-SAFE study design.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasebe, Naoyuki; Moroi, Masao; Nishimura, Masato; Hara, Kazuhiro; Hase, Hiroki; Hashimoto, Akiyoshi; Kumita, Shinichiro; Haze, Kazuo; Momose, Mitsuru; Nagai, Yoji; Sugimoto, Tokuichiro; Kusano, Eiji; Akiba, Takashi; Nakata, Tomoaki; Nishimura, Tsunehiko; Tamaki, Nagara; Kikuchi, Kenjiro

    2008-12-01

    Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality in patients undergoing hemodialysis. Such patients frequently develop complications such as asymptomatic coronary artery disease (CAD). Accordingly, CAD must ideally be diagnosed at an early stage to improve prognosis. Although myocardial perfusion single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) is valuable for diagnosing CAD, the stress test is not always applicable to patients on hemodialysis. Thus, we proposed a multicenter, prospective cohort study called "B-SAFE" to investigate the applicability of resting (123)I-labeled beta-methyl-iodophenylpentadecanoic acid ((123)I-BMIPP)-SPECT will be used to diagnose cardiac disease and evaluate the prognosis of hemodialysis patients by imaging myocardial fatty acid metabolism. B-SAFE began enrolling patients from June 2006 at 48 facilities. We performed (123)I-BMIPP-SPECT on 702 hemodialysis patients with risk factors for CAD until 30 November 2007 and plan to follow up for three years. The primary endpoints will be cardiac death and sudden death. This study should end in 2010.

  18. Information and Risk Modification Trial (INFORM): design of a randomised controlled trial of communicating different types of information about coronary heart disease risk, alongside lifestyle advice, to achieve change in health-related behaviour.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silarova, Barbora; Lucas, Joanne; Butterworth, Adam S; Di Angelantonio, Emanuele; Girling, Christine; Lawrence, Kathryn; Mackintosh, Stuart; Moore, Carmel; Payne, Rupert A; Sharp, Stephen J; Shefer, Guy; Tolkien, Zoe; Usher-Smith, Juliet; Walker, Matthew; Danesh, John; Griffin, Simon

    2015-09-07

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains the leading cause of death globally. Primary prevention of CVD requires cost-effective strategies to identify individuals at high risk in order to help target preventive interventions. An integral part of this approach is the use of CVD risk scores. Limitations in previous studies have prevented reliable inference about the potential advantages and the potential harms of using CVD risk scores as part of preventive strategies. We aim to evaluate short-term effects of providing different types of information about coronary heart disease (CHD) risk, alongside lifestyle advice, on health-related behaviours. In a parallel-group, open randomised trial, we are allocating 932 male and female blood donors with no previous history of CVD aged 40-84 years in England to either no intervention (control group) or to one of three active intervention groups: i) lifestyle advice only; ii) lifestyle advice plus information on estimated 10-year CHD risk based on phenotypic characteristics; and iii) lifestyle advice plus information on estimated 10-year CHD risk based on phenotypic and genetic characteristics. The primary outcome is change in objectively measured physical activity. Secondary outcomes include: objectively measured dietary behaviours; cardiovascular risk factors; current medication and healthcare usage; perceived risk; cognitive evaluation of provision of CHD risk scores; and psychological outcomes. The follow-up assessment takes place 12 weeks after randomisation. The experiences, attitudes and concerns of a subset of participants will be also studied using individual interviews and focus groups. The INFORM study has been designed to provide robust findings about the short-term effects of providing different types of information on estimated 10-year CHD risk and lifestyle advice on health-related behaviours. Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN17721237 . Registered 12 January 2015.

  19. Risk management strategies by Australian farmers: two case studies

    OpenAIRE

    Nguyen, Nam C.; Wegener, Malcolm K.; Russell, Iean W.; Cameron, Donald; Coventry, David; Cooper, Ian M.

    2007-01-01

    Australian farmers operate in one of the most risky farming environments in the world. They have to cope with numerous sources of risk including weather uncertainty, variable market prices, and institutional changes in their business management. This paper reports results from two case studies undertaken to examine the issues of farming risks and risk management strategies in Australia. The first case study found that unpredictable weather, financial risk, marketing risk, and personal risk we...

  20. SPFC bus design studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Potter, L.; Reinkingh, J.

    1999-07-01

    This report presents the results of a study assessing the design options for a solid polymer fuel cell bus. Commercial and operation requirements, environmental and market drivers, and fuel processor modeling are examined. Power train specifications and detailed system design are investigated covering fuel cell system dynamic response, hybrid system size, fuel cell system start-up time, system specifications, and hybrid bus component dimensions and costs. (UK)

  1. PRA for emergency planning: assessing the risk profile of a 3-loop PWR on the basis of US and German risk studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chakraborty, S.; Fuchs, H.; Gubler, R.; Landolt, J.; Miteff, L.

    1985-01-01

    Emergency planning around nuclear power plants should be based on a realistic assessment of their risk profile. Since the results of the Rasmussen study (WASH-1400) and later of the German risk study (Phase A) were not judged to be fully representative for NPP's in Switzerland, an investigation was started to transfer applicable US and German results to a Swiss 3-loop PWR (Goesgen) and to assess the impact of differences in plant design compared to Surry-1 and Biblis-B. The core melt probability for Goesgen was calculated to be more than a factor of ten smaller than for the US and German studies. This is mainly due to more redundancy/better separation (especially in the emergency feedwater) and to partial automation of cooldown after a small break. The results were instrumental in limiting the release categories to be used as reference cases for emergency planning. Further reduction of postulated accidental releases is expected from the current source term research

  2. Collective design in 3D printing: A large scale empirical study of designs, designers and evolution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Özkil, Ali Gürcan

    2017-01-01

    This paper provides an empirical study of a collective design platform (Thingiverse); with the aim of understanding the phenomenon and investigating how designs concurrently evolve through the large and complex network of designers. The case study is based on the meta-data collected from 158 489 ...

  3. Global electricity transformation: The critical need for integrated market design and risk management research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hung-po Chao

    2006-01-01

    The past three decades transformed the electricity industry. The essential goals of liberalization have been to lower costs, improve reliability, and stimulate investment and innovations through establishment of competitive electricity markets, while also relying on market mechanisms to provide creative solutions to environmental and security problems. In many instances, these goals have been achieved, but the occurrence of some spectacular market failures have brought into question the whole restructuring effort. This paper reviews recent experiences with market reform and concludes that a significant cause of failure has been the rush to unbundle vertically integrated utilities without sufficient consideration of alternative ways to manage the risk of electricity market restructuring. In particular, there is a critical need for integrated market design and risk management research to improve the process of market transformation by taking a more evolutionary approach to discover a 'Third Way' above vertical integration and full unbundling. Such research can offer a crucial feedback link to the restructuring process by identifying important lessons to be learned from past experience and developing new analytical tools to help introduce more successful market designs for the future. (author)

  4. Cardiovascular disease, risk factors and heart rate variability in the elderly general population: Design and objectives of the CARdiovascular disease, Living and Ageing in Halle (CARLA Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kuss Oliver

    2005-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The increasing burden of cardiovascular diseases (CVD in the ageing population of industrialized nations requires an intensive search for means of reducing this epidemic. In order to improve prevention, detection, therapy and prognosis of cardiovascular diseases on the population level in Eastern Germany, it is necessary to examine reasons for the East-West gradient of CVD morbidity and mortality, potential causal mechanisms and prognostic factors in the elderly. Psychosocial and nutritional factors have previously been discussed as possible causes for the unexplained part of the East-West gradient. A reduced heart rate variability appears to be associated with cardiovascular disease as well as with psychosocial and other cardiovascular risk factors and decreases with age. Nevertheless, there is a lack of population-based data to examine the role of heart rate variability and its interaction with psychosocial and nutritional factors regarding the effect on cardiovascular disease in the ageing population. There also is a paucity of epidemiological data describing the health situation in Eastern Germany. Therefore, we conduct a population-based study to examine the distribution of CVD, heart rate variability and CVD risk factors and their associations in an elderly East German population. This paper describes the design and objectives of the CARLA Study. Methods/design For this study, a random sample of 45–80 year-old inhabitants of the city of Halle (Saale in Eastern Germany was drawn from the population registry. By the end of the baseline examination (2002–2005, 1750 study participants will have been examined. A multi-step recruitment strategy aims at achieving a 70 % response rate. Detailed information is collected on own and family medical history, socioeconomic, psychosocial, behavioural and biomedical factors. Medical examinations include anthropometric measures, blood pressure of arm and ankle, a 10-second and a 20

  5. Preliminary design study of the TMT Telescope structure system: overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Usuda, Tomonori; Ezaki, Yutaka; Kawaguchi, Noboru; Nagae, Kazuhiro; Kato, Atsushi; Takaki, Junji; Hirano, Masaki; Hattori, Tomoya; Tabata, Masaki; Horiuchi, Yasushi; Saruta, Yusuke; Sofuku, Satoru; Itoh, Noboru; Oshima, Takeharu; Takanezawa, Takashi; Endo, Makoto; Inatani, Junji; Iye, Masanori; Sadjadpour, Amir; Sirota, Mark; Roberts, Scott; Stepp, Larry

    2014-07-01

    operational status of Hydro Static Bearing (HSB) system and stow lock pins. In order to find a practical solution, design optimization study for seismic risk mitigation was carried out extensively, including the performing of dynamic response analyses of the STR system under the time dependent acceleration profile of seven major earthquakes. The work is now moving to the final design phase from April 2014 for two years.

  6. A Nationwide Cohort Study of the Association Between Hospitalization With Infection and Risk of Death by Suicide

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lund-Sørensen, Helene; Benros, Michael E; Madsen, Trine

    2016-01-01

    IMPORTANCE: Findings suggest that infections might be linked to the development of psychiatric disorders and suicidal behavior. Large-scale studies are needed to investigate the effect of infection on the risk of suicide. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the association between hospitalization with infection......: An increased risk of death by suicide was found among individuals hospitalized with infection in prospective and dose-response relationships. These findings indicate that infections may have a relevant role in the pathophysiological mechanisms of suicidal behavior....... and the risk of death by suicide. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Nationwide, population-based, prospective cohort study with more than 149 million person-years of follow-up. Data were analyzed with survival analysis techniques and were adjusted for sex, age, calendar period, cohabitation status...

  7. How system designers think: a study of design thinking in human factors engineering.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papantonopoulos, Sotiris

    2004-11-01

    The paper presents a descriptive study of design thinking in human factors engineering. The objective of the study is to analyse the role of interpretation in design thinking and the role of design practice in guiding interpretation. The study involved 10 system designers undertaking the allocation of cognitive functions in three production planning and control task scenarios. Allocation decisions were recorded and verbal protocols of the design process were collected to elicit the subjects' thought processes. Verbal protocol analysis showed that subjects carried out the design of cognitive task allocation as a problem of applying a selected automation technology from their initial design deliberations. This design strategy stands in contrast to the predominant view of system design that stipulates that user requirements should be thoroughly analysed prior to making any decisions about technology. Theoretical frameworks from design research and ontological design showed that the system design process may be better understood by recognizing the role of design hypotheses in system design, as well as the diverse interactions between interpretation and practice, means and ends, and design practice and the designer's pre-understanding which shape the design process. Ways to balance the bias exerted on the design process were discussed.

  8. Risk Assessment Stability: A Revalidation Study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment Instrument

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwalbe, Craig S.

    2009-01-01

    The actuarial method is the gold standard for risk assessment in child welfare, juvenile justice, and criminal justice. It produces risk classifications that are highly predictive and that may be robust to sampling error. This article reports a revalidation study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment instrument, an actuarial instrument for juvenile…

  9. Vitamin E Intake and Risk of Renal Cell Carcinoma: A Meta-Analysis of 7 Case-Control Studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shang, Yonggang; Yi, Shanhong; Cui, Dong; Han, Guangwei; Liu, Chengcheng

    2015-07-01

    Vitamin E intake may reduce the risk of renal cell carcinoma, but the results were inconsistent. Hence, we conducted a meta-analysis to assess the association between dietary vitamin E intake and the risk of renal cell carcinoma. We searched PubMed to identify the relevant case-control studies up to June 2014. Reference lists of retrieved articles were also reviewed. Odds ratios and corresponding 95% confidence intervals were used to estimate the association between dietary vitamin E intake and the risk of renal cell carcinoma. We identified 7 case-control studies regarding dietary vitamin E intake and risk of renal cell carcinoma, involving 5789 cases and 14866 controls. The odds ratio of renal cell carcinoma for the highest compared with the lowest dietary vitamin E intake was 0.75 (95% confidence interval: 0.59-0.91), and heterogeneity was observed across studies. The association between dietary vitamin E intake and the risk of renal cell carcinoma was not significantly differed by gender, but this association were inconsistent in the North American and European populations. Our study provided a evidence that there was a significant inverse association of dietary vitamin E intake with risk of renal cell carcinoma. However, this finding was based on the case-control studies, more well-designed cohort studies are needed. Copyright © 2015 National Kidney Foundation, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. The Relationship Between Shift Work and Metabolic Risk Factors: A Systematic Review of Longitudinal Studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Proper, Karin I; van de Langenberg, Daniëlla; Rodenburg, Wendy; Vermeulen, Roel C H; van der Beek, Allard J; van Steeg, Harry; van Kerkhof, Linda W M

    2016-05-01

    Although the metabolic health effects of shift work have been extensively studied, a systematic synthesis of the available research is lacking. This review aimed to systematically summarize the available evidence of longitudinal studies linking shift work with metabolic risk factors. A systematic literature search was performed in 2015. Studies were included if (1) they had a longitudinal design; (2) shift work was studied as the exposure; and (3) the outcome involved a metabolic risk factor, including anthropometric, blood glucose, blood lipid, or blood pressure measures. Eligible studies were assessed for their methodologic quality in 2015. A best-evidence synthesis was used to draw conclusions per outcome. Thirty-nine articles describing 22 studies were included. Strong evidence was found for a relation between shift work and increased body weight/BMI, risk for overweight, and impaired glucose tolerance. For the remaining outcomes, there was insufficient evidence. Shift work seems to be associated with body weight gain, risk for overweight, and impaired glucose tolerance. Overall, lack of high-methodologic quality studies and inconsistency in findings led to insufficient evidence in assessing the relation between shift work and other metabolic risk factors. To strengthen the evidence, more high-quality longitudinal studies that provide more information on the shift work schedule (e.g., frequency of night shifts, duration in years) are needed. Further, research to the (mediating) role of lifestyle behaviors in the health effects of shift work is recommended, as this may offer potential for preventive strategies. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  11. Secondhand smoke exposure and risk of lung cancer in Japan: a systematic review and meta-analysis of epidemiologic studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hori, Megumi; Tanaka, Hirokazu; Wakai, Kenji; Sasazuki, Shizuka; Katanoda, Kota

    2016-10-01

    Systematic evaluation of the association between secondhand smoke exposure and lung cancer in Japan has yet to be conducted. Here, we performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of the relationship between secondhand smoke and lung cancer in Japanese non-smokers. Relevant studies were collected from the MEDLINE and Ichushi Web databases using a combination of search terms and Medical Subject Headings. Eligible studies were identified, and relative risks or odds ratios were extracted to calculate pooled risk estimates. This procedure was performed independently by at least two authors. Stratified analyses were carried out according to study design, publication year, and whether or not potential confounding variables were accounted for. The presence of publication bias was assessed via funnel plots. We identified four cohort studies and five case-control studies. Quantitative synthesis was conducted only for secondhand smoke exposure in the home during adulthood. Of the 12 populations included in meta-analysis, positive secondhand smoke exposure-lung cancer associations were observed in 11, whereas an inverse association was found in the remaining 1. The pooled relative risk of lung cancer associated with secondhand smoke exposure was 1.28 (95% confidence interval: 1.10-1.48). We found no evidence of publication bias, and a significant association remained even when potentially missing studies were included (pooled relative risk: 1.26; 95% confidence interval: 1.09-1.46). The results were stable across different subgroup analyses, including by study design, publication year, and when adjusting for confounding variables. Secondhand smoke exposure in the home during adulthood results in a statistically significant increase in the risk of lung cancer. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press.

  12. Quality risk management of top spray fluidized bed process for antihypertensive drug formulation with control strategy engendered by Box-behnken experimental design space.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukharya, Amit; Patel, Paresh U; Shenoy, Dinesh; Chaudhary, Shivang

    2013-01-01

    Lacidipine (LCDP) is a very low soluble and highly biovariable calcium channel blocker used in the treatment of hypertension. To increase its apparent solubility and to reduce its biovariability, solid dispersion fluid bed processing technology was explored, as it produces highly dispersible granules with a characteristic porous structure that enhances dispersibility, wettability, blend uniformity (by dissolving and spraying a solution of actives), flow ability and compressibility of granules for tableting and reducing variability by uniform drug-binder solution distribution on carrier molecules. Main object of this quality risk management (QRM) study is to provide a sophisticated "robust and rugged" Fluidized Bed Process (FBP) for the preparation of LCDP tablets with desired quality (stability) and performance (dissolution) by quality by design (QbD) concept. THIS STUDY IS PRINCIPALLY FOCUSING ON THOROUGH MECHANISTIC UNDERSTANDING OF THE FBP BY WHICH IT IS DEVELOPED AND SCALED UP WITH A KNOWLEDGE OF THE CRITICAL RISKS INVOLVED IN MANUFACTURING PROCESS ANALYZED BY RISK ASSESSMENT TOOLS LIKE: Qualitative Initial Risk-based Matrix Analysis (IRMA) and Quantitative Failure Mode Effective Analysis (FMEA) to identify and rank parameters with potential to have an impact on In Process/Finished Product Critical Quality Attributes (IP/FP CQAs). These Critical Process Parameters (CPPs) were further refined by DoE and MVDA to develop design space with Real Time Release Testing (RTRT) that leads to implementation of a control strategy to achieve consistent finished product quality at lab scale itself to prevent possible product failure at larger manufacturing scale.

  13. The design of supply chains

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bøge Sørensen, Lars

    2004-01-01

    Keywords Supply Chain Management, Supply Chain Design, Literature studyAbstract Argues stability is a design objective for supply chain design alongside cost, leadtime and responsiveness. Performs an extensive literature study on supply chain design,identifies methods, theories and objectives...... in the existing literature. Describes the conceptexternal specificity and how it's used to design supply chains. Using the concept upstream,archetypes of risk minimal and maximal design are identified. Downstream the conceptdescribes two viable scenarios, one minimizing the impact, the other minimizing...... theprobability of (intended) departure of a supply chain partner. Finally, principles for supplychain design are described and managerial outlined....

  14. Prospective cohort study of tea consumption and risk of digestive system cancers: results from the Shanghai Women's Health Study123

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nechuta, Sarah; Shu, Xiao-Ou; Li, Hong-Lan; Yang, Gong; Ji, Bu-Tian; Xiang, Yong-Bing; Cai, Hui; Chow, Wong-Ho; Gao, Yu-Tang

    2012-01-01

    Background: Data from in vitro and animal studies support a protective role for tea in the etiology of digestive system cancers; however, results from prospective cohort studies have been inconsistent. In addition, to our knowledge, no study has investigated the association of tea consumption with the incidence of all digestive system cancers in Chinese women. Objective: We investigated the association of regular tea intake (≥3 times/wk for >6 mo) with risk of digestive system cancers. Design: We used the Shanghai Women's Health Study, a population-based prospective cohort study of middle-aged and older Chinese women who were recruited in 1996–2000. Adjusted HRs and associated 95% CIs were derived from Cox regression models. Results: After a mean follow-up of 11 y, 1255 digestive system cancers occurred (stomach, esophagus, colorectal, liver, pancreas, and gallbladder/bile duct cancers) in 69,310 nonsmoking and non–alcohol-drinking women. In comparison with women who never drank tea, regular tea intake (mostly green tea) was associated with reduced risk of all digestive system cancers combined (HR: 0.86; 95% CI: 0.74, 0.98), and the reduction in risk increased as the amount and years of tea consumption increased (P-trend = 0.01 and P-trend tea/mo (∼2–3 cups/d) had a 21% reduced risk of digestive system cancers combined (HR: 0.79; 95% CI: 0.63, 0.99). The inverse association was found primarily for colorectal and stomach/esophageal cancers. Conclusion: In this large prospective cohort study, tea consumption was associated with reduced risk of colorectal and stomach/esophageal cancers in Chinese women. PMID:23053557

  15. Marijuana use and risk of lung cancer: a 40-year cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Callaghan, Russell C; Allebeck, Peter; Sidorchuk, Anna

    2013-10-01

    Cannabis (marijuana) smoke and tobacco smoke contain many of the same potent carcinogens, but a critical-yet unresolved-medical and public-health issue is whether cannabis smoking might facilitate the development of lung cancer. The current study aimed to assess the risk of lung cancer among young marijuana users. A population-based cohort study examined men (n = 49,321) aged 18-20 years old assessed for cannabis use and other relevant variables during military conscription in Sweden in 1969-1970. Participants were tracked until 2009 for incident lung cancer outcomes in nationwide linked medical registries. Cox regression modeling assessed relationships between cannabis smoking, measured at conscription, and the hazard of subsequently receiving a lung cancer diagnosis. At the baseline conscription assessment, 10.5 % (n = 5,156) reported lifetime use of marijuana and 1.7 % (n = 831) indicated lifetime use of more than 50 times, designated as "heavy" use. Cox regression analyses (n = 44,284) found that such "heavy" cannabis smoking was significantly associated with more than a twofold risk (hazard ratio 2.12, 95 % CI 1.08-4.14) of developing lung cancer over the 40-year follow-up period, even after statistical adjustment for baseline tobacco use, alcohol use, respiratory conditions, and socioeconomic status. Our primary finding provides initial longitudinal evidence that cannabis use might elevate the risk of lung cancer. In light of the widespread use of marijuana, especially among adolescents and young adults, our study provides important data for informing the risk-benefit calculus of marijuana smoking in medical, public-health, and drug-policy settings.

  16. The South Asian heart lifestyle intervention (SAHELI) study to improve cardiovascular risk factors in a community setting: Design and methods

    OpenAIRE

    Kandula, Namratha R.; Patel, Yasin; Dave, Swapna; Seguil, Paola; Kumar, Santosh; Baker, David W.; Spring, Bonnie; Siddique, Juned

    2013-01-01

    Disseminating and implementing evidence-based, cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention lifestyle interventions in community settings and in ethnic minority populations is a challenge. We describe the design and methods for the South Asian heart lifestyle intervention (SAHELI) study, a pilot study designed to determine the feasibility and initial efficacy of a culturally-targeted, community-based lifestyle intervention to improve physical activity and diet behaviors among medically underserved...

  17. Association of lifestyle risk factors with metabolic syndrome components: A cross-sectional study in Eastern India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pragya Verma

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Approximately 20%–25% of the world adult population and nearly 30% of Indians have metabolic syndrome disorder. Our objective was designed to find out the association between important nutrients and potential lifestyle risk factors such as diet, physical inactivity, and smoking and alcohol consumption with the number of metabolic syndrome components. Methods: This was a cross-sectional study. A total of 205 patients of metabolic syndrome were enrolled for this study. Diagnosis of metabolic syndrome was done on the basis of National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III criteria (NCEP ATP III 2004.Dietary data were collected with the validated food frequency questionnaire and 24 h dietary recall method, and the nutrient intake was calculated with the specially designed software. Results: Unhealthy dietary habits were seen more among the participants who had more than 3 risk factors. Results showed the odds of taking> 5 times junk foods was 3 times higher (odds ratio [OR]: 2.97; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.61–5.47, and sweet dishes was 2.3 times higher (OR: 2.33; 95% CI: 1.28–4.24 among the participants who had 4–5 risk factors. However, milk and dairy products > 4 servings/day (OR: 0.54; 95% CI: 0.175–1.67 and pulses and legumes more than 2 servings/day (OR: 0.57; 95% CI: 0.25–1.29 was protective against hypertension. Mean carbohydrate, saturated fat, and sodium intake was significantly higher in the participants who had 4–5 metabolic risk factors compared to 3 risk factors (P < 0.0001. Conclusions: It was concluded that low intake of fruits, vegetables, and higher intake of flesh food and inadequate physical activity significantly associated with the metabolic syndrome risk factors.

  18. European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) calibration study: rationale, design and population characteristics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Slimani, N.; Kaaks, R.; Ferrari, P.

    2002-01-01

    The European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC), which covers a large cohort of half a million men and women from 23 European centres in 10 Western European countries, was designed to study the relationship between diet and the risk of chronic diseases, particularly cancer......, a calibration approach was developed. This approach involved an additional dietary assessment common across study populations to re-express individual dietary intakes according to the same reference scale. A single 24-hour diet recall was therefore collected, as the EPIC reference calibration method, from...... in a large multi-centre European study. These studies showed that, despite certain inherent methodological and logistic constraints, a study design such as this one works relatively well in practice. The average response in the calibration study was 78.3% and ranged from 46.5% to 92.5%. The calibration...

  19. Intake of fruit and vegetables and risk of bladder cancer: a dose-response meta-analysis of observational studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Baodong; Yan, Yujie; Ye, Xianwu; Fang, Hong; Xu, Huilin; Liu, Yinan; Li, Sheran; Zhao, Yanping

    2014-12-01

    Observational studies suggest an association between fruit and vegetables intake and risk of bladder cancer, but the results are controversial. We therefore summarized the evidence from observational studies in categorical, linear, and nonlinear, dose-response meta-analysis. Pertinent studies were identified by searching EMBASE and PubMed from their inception to August 2013. Thirty-one observational studies involving 12,610 cases and 1,121,649 participants were included. The combined rate ratio (RR, 95 % CI) of bladder cancer for the highest versus lowest intake was 0.83 (0.69-0.99) for total fruit and vegetables, 0.81 (0.70-0.93) for total vegetables, 0.77 (0.69-0.87) for total fruit, 0.84 (0.77-0.91) for cruciferous vegetables, 0.79 (0.68-0.91) for citrus fruits, and 0.74 (0.66-0.84) for yellow-orange vegetables. Subgroup analysis showed study design and gender as possible sources of heterogeneity. A nonlinear relationship was found of citrus fruits intake with risk of bladder cancer (P for nonlinearity = 0.018), and the RRs (95 % CI) of bladder cancer were 0.87 (0.78-0.96), 0.80 (0.67-0.94), 0.79 (0.66-0.94), 0.79 (0.65-0.96), and 0.79 (0.64-0.99) for 30, 60, 90, 120, and 150 g/day. A nonlinear relationship was also found of yellow-orange vegetable intake with risk of bladder cancer risk (P for nonlinearity = 0.033). Some evidence of publication bias was observed for fruit, citrus fruits, and yellow-orange vegetables. This meta-analysis supports the hypothesis that intakes of fruit and vegetables may reduce the risk of bladder cancer. Future well-designed studies are required to confirm this finding.

  20. Application of Bayesian network and multi-criteria decision analysis to risk-based design of chemical plants

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Khakzad Rostami, N.; Reniers, G.L.L.M.E.

    2016-01-01

    Fires and explosions in chemical plants are still among the major accidents threatening human lives and causing huge asset losses. Although might not completely be eliminated, the risks of such accidents can be reduced by allocating safety measures, applying inherently safer design (ISD) methods,