Sample records for risk score decreased

  1. High Framingham risk score decreases quality of life in adults

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Yosaputra


    Full Text Available Cardiovascular disease (CVD risk factors, such as diabetes, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, smoking, and obesity tend to occur together in the general population. Increasing prevalence of multiple CVD risk factors has been related to increased risk of death from coronary heart disease and stroke. Studies have suggested that people with several risk factors of CVD may have impaired health-related quality of life. The objective of this study was to assess the association of CVD risk factors with quality of life (QOL among adults aged 40 to 65 years. A cross-sectional study was conducted involving 220 subjects 40 - 65 years of age at a health center. The CVD risk factors were assessed using the Framingham risk score that is the standard instrument for assessment of the risk of a first cardiac event. The risk factors assessed were age, smoking, blood pressure, total cholesterol and high density lipoprotein cholesterol concentrations. QOL was assessed by means of the WHOQOL-BREF instrument that had been prevalidated. The results of the study showed that 28.2% of subjects were smokers, 56.4% had stage 1 hypertension, 42.8% high total cholesterol and 13.6% low HDL cholesterol. The high risk group amounted to 45.5% and 42.3% constitued an intermediate risk group. High CVD risk scores were significantly associated with a low QOL for all domains (physical, psychological, social and environment (p=0.000. Preventing or reducing the multiple CVD risk factors to improve QOL is necessary among adults.

  2. Decreasing Relative Risk Premium

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Frank

    relative risk premium in the small implies decreasing relative risk premium in the large, and decreasing relative risk premium everywhere implies risk aversion. We finally show that preferences with decreasing relative risk premium may be equivalently expressed in terms of certain preferences on risky......We consider the risk premium demanded by a decision maker with wealth x in order to be indifferent between obtaining a new level of wealth y1 with certainty, or to participate in a lottery which either results in unchanged present wealth or a level of wealth y2 > y1. We define the relative risk...... premium as the quotient between the risk premium and the increase in wealth y1–x which the decision maker puts on the line by choosing the lottery in place of receiving y1 with certainty. We study preferences such that the relative risk premium is a decreasing function of present wealth, and we determine...

  3. Decreasing relative risk premium

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Frank


    such that the corresponding relative risk premium is a decreasing function of present wealth, and we determine the set of associated utility functions. We find a new characterization of risk vulnerability and determine a large set of utility functions, closed under summation and composition, which are both risk vulnerable...

  4. The International Bleeding Risk Score

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Laursen, Stig Borbjerg; Laine, L.; Dalton, H.


    The International Bleeding Risk Score: A New Risk Score that can Accurately Predict Mortality in Patients with Upper GI-Bleeding.......The International Bleeding Risk Score: A New Risk Score that can Accurately Predict Mortality in Patients with Upper GI-Bleeding....

  5. Martial arts intervention decreases pain scores in children with malignancy. (United States)

    Bluth, Martin H; Thomas, Ronald; Cohen, Cindy; Bluth, Amanda C; Goldberg, Elimelech


    Martial arts intervention in disease has been mostly limited to adult inflammatory, musculoskeletal, or motor diseases, where a mechanical intervention effects positive change. However, the application and benefit to pain management in childhood malignancy are not well described. Here, we assess the effects of defined martial arts intervention in children with cancer with respect to their pain perception and management. Sixty-four children with childhood malignancies were enrolled in a martial arts program, which encompassed both meditation and movement modalities. Pain scores (0-10) were recorded pre- and post- 1-hour session intervention. Pain scores were crossed by total visits and tabulated by whether participant pain reduced at least 1 unit, stayed the same, or increased in intensity immediately after (post) participation session. Differences in pain scores were further compared by age and sex. Prepain and postpain scale data were measured for 64 participants, 43 males (67.2%) and 21 females (32.8%), ranging from 3 years to 19 years. Preintervention and postintervention data were obtained for 223 individual session visits. Mean number of patient participation visits was 1.8±1.6 (range one to nine visits). Of 116 individual measured sessions where the participants began with a pain score of at least 1, pain intensity reduced ≥1 unit in 85.3% (99/116) of visits, remained the same in 7.8% (9/116), and increased in 6.9% (8/116). For the majority (96.3%; 77/80) of sessions, participants began with a prepain intensity score of at least 5-10 with reduction in pain intensity following the session. The overall mean pain score presession visit was reduced bŷ40% (pre: 5.95±2.64 and post: 3.03±2.45 [95% CI: 2.34-3.50]; P ≤0.001). Median pain intensity scores had greater reductions with increased age of participants (3-6 years [-1], 7-10 years [-2], 11-14 years [-3], and 15-19 years [-4]). Martial arts intervention can provide a useful modality to decrease pain in

  6. Cardiovascular risk scores for coronary atherosclerosis. (United States)

    Yalcin, Murat; Kardesoglu, Ejder; Aparci, Mustafa; Isilak, Zafer; Uz, Omer; Yiginer, Omer; Ozmen, Namik; Cingozbay, Bekir Yilmaz; Uzun, Mehmet; Cebeci, Bekir Sitki


    The objective of this study was to compare frequently used cardiovascular risk scores in predicting the presence of coronary artery disease (CAD) and 3-vessel disease. In 350 consecutive patients (218 men and 132 women) who underwent coronary angiography, the cardiovascular risk level was determined using the Framingham Risk Score (FRS), the Modified Framingham Risk Score (MFRS), the Prospective Cardiovascular Münster (PROCAM) score, and the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE). The area under the curve for receiver operating characteristic curves showed that FRS had more predictive value than the other scores for CAD (area under curve, 0.76, P MFRS, PROCAM, and SCORE) may predict the presence and severity of coronary atherosclerosis.The FRS had better predictive value than the other scores.



    Adrian Cantemir CALIN; Oana Cristina POPOVICI


    Credit risk governs all financial transactions and it is defined as the risk of suffering a loss due to certain shifts in the credit quality of a counterpart. Credit risk literature gravitates around two main modeling approaches: the structural approach and the reduced form approach. In addition to these perspectives, credit risk assessment has been conducted through a series of techniques such as credit scoring models, which form the traditional approach. This paper examines the evolution of...

  8. 'Mechanical restraint-confounders, risk, alliance score'

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Deichmann Nielsen, Lea; Bech, Per; Hounsgaard, Lise


    . AIM: To clinically validate a new, structured short-term risk assessment instrument called the Mechanical Restraint-Confounders, Risk, Alliance Score (MR-CRAS), with the intended purpose of supporting the clinicians' observation and assessment of the patient's readiness to be released from mechanical...... restraint. METHODS: The content and layout of MR-CRAS and its user manual were evaluated using face validation by forensic mental health clinicians, content validation by an expert panel, and pilot testing within two, closed forensic mental health inpatient units. RESULTS: The three sub-scales (Confounders......, Risk, and a parameter of Alliance) showed excellent content validity. The clinical validations also showed that MR-CRAS was perceived and experienced as a comprehensible, relevant, comprehensive, and useable risk assessment instrument. CONCLUSIONS: MR-CRAS contains 18 clinically valid items...

  9. Lifestyle Decreases Risk Factors for Cardiovascular Diseases (United States)

    Slavíček, Jaroslav; Kittnar, Otomar; Fraser, Gary E.; Medová, Eva; Konečná, Jana; Žižka, Robert; Dohnalová, Alena; Novák, Vladimír


    Summary The morbidity and mortality of the cardiovascular diseases is high in the developed countries. The lifestyle changes are capable to decrease it by 50%. The aim of the present study was to measure the parameters of some risk factors before and after a one-week NEW START rehabilitative retreat. 1,349 volunteers, 320 men, 1,029 woman, mean age 51±14.5 (SD) years participated in 30 rehabilitative retreats from 1999–2006 in the Czech Republic, using a low-fat, low-energy, lacto-ovo-vegetarian diet and exercise, in a stress-free environment. Body weight, height, BMI, blood pressure, heart rate, serum cholesterol and blood glucose were measured. Body weight decreased in 1,223 measured persons from 71.2±14.38 (SD) to 70.6±14.02 kg (pSeventh-day Adventists than in controls who never observed the diet and avail the lifestyle programs. The parameters were nonsignificantly changed one year after finishing the retreat in the sample of 68 persons showing the positive effect of retreats. Our results showed, that the intake of a low-fat, low-energy diet, over the course of one week in a stress-free environment, had positive impact on the risk factors of cardiovascular diseases. PMID:19256282


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Constangioara Alexandru


    Full Text Available Risk management is relatively unexplored in Romania. Although Romanian specialists dwell on theoretical aspects such as the risks classification and the important distinction between risks and uncertainty the practical relevance of the matter is outside existing studies. Present paper uses a dataset of consumer data to build a propensity scorecard based on relevant quantitative modeling.

  11. Evaluation of Cardiovascular Risk Scores Applied to NASA's Astronant Corps (United States)

    Jain, I.; Charvat, J. M.; VanBaalen, M.; Lee, L.; Wear, M. L.


    In an effort to improve cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction, this analysis evaluates and compares the applicability of multiple CVD risk scores to the NASA Astronaut Corps which is extremely healthy at selection.

  12. Genetic Risk Score for Essential Hypertension and Risk of Preeclampsia. (United States)

    Smith, Caitlin J; Saftlas, Audrey F; Spracklen, Cassandra N; Triche, Elizabeth W; Bjonnes, Andrew; Keating, Brendan; Saxena, Richa; Breheny, Patrick J; Dewan, Andrew T; Robinson, Jennifer G; Hoh, Josephine; Ryckman, Kelli K


    Preeclampsia is a hypertensive complication of pregnancy characterized by novel onset of hypertension after 20 weeks gestation, accompanied by proteinuria. Epidemiological evidence suggests that genetic susceptibility exists for preeclampsia; however, whether preeclampsia is the result of underlying genetic risk for essential hypertension has yet to be investigated. Based on the hypertensive state that is characteristic of preeclampsia, we aimed to determine if established genetic risk scores (GRSs) for hypertension and blood pressure are associated with preeclampsia. Subjects consisted of 162 preeclamptic cases and 108 normotensive pregnant controls, all of Iowa residence. Subjects' DNA was extracted from buccal swab samples and genotyped on the Affymetrix Genome-wide Human SNP Array 6.0 (Affymetrix, Santa Clara, CA). Missing genotypes were imputed using MaCH and Minimac software. GRSs were calculated for hypertension, systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), and mean arterial pressure (MAP) using established genetic risk loci for each outcome. Regression analyses were performed to determine the association between GRS and risk of preeclampsia. These analyses were replicated in an independent US population of 516 cases and 1,097 controls of European ancestry. GRSs for hypertension, SBP, DBP, and MAP were not significantly associated with risk for preeclampsia (P > 0.189). The results of the replication analysis also yielded nonsignificant associations. GRSs for hypertension and blood pressure are not associated with preeclampsia, suggesting that an underlying predisposition to essential hypertension is not on the causal pathway of preeclampsia. © American Journal of Hypertension, Ltd 2015. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email:

  13. Credit scores, cardiovascular disease risk, and human capital. (United States)

    Israel, Salomon; Caspi, Avshalom; Belsky, Daniel W; Harrington, HonaLee; Hogan, Sean; Houts, Renate; Ramrakha, Sandhya; Sanders, Seth; Poulton, Richie; Moffitt, Terrie E


    Credit scores are the most widely used instruments to assess whether or not a person is a financial risk. Credit scoring has been so successful that it has expanded beyond lending and into our everyday lives, even to inform how insurers evaluate our health. The pervasive application of credit scoring has outpaced knowledge about why credit scores are such useful indicators of individual behavior. Here we test if the same factors that lead to poor credit scores also lead to poor health. Following the Dunedin (New Zealand) Longitudinal Study cohort of 1,037 study members, we examined the association between credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk and the underlying factors that account for this association. We find that credit scores are negatively correlated with cardiovascular disease risk. Variation in household income was not sufficient to account for this association. Rather, individual differences in human capital factors—educational attainment, cognitive ability, and self-control—predicted both credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk and accounted for ∼45% of the correlation between credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk. Tracing human capital factors back to their childhood antecedents revealed that the characteristic attitudes, behaviors, and competencies children develop in their first decade of life account for a significant portion (∼22%) of the link between credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk at midlife. We discuss the implications of these findings for policy debates about data privacy, financial literacy, and early childhood interventions.

  14. Thrombotic risk assessment in APS: the Global APS Score (GAPSS). (United States)

    Sciascia, S; Bertolaccini, M L


    Recently, we developed a risk score for antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) (Global APS Score or GAPSS). This score derived from the combination of independent risk factors for thrombosis and pregnancy loss, taking into account the antiphospholipid antibodies (aPL) profile (criteria and non-criteria aPL), the conventional cardiovascular risk factors, and the autoimmune antibodies profile. We demonstrate that risk profile in APS can be successfully assessed, suggesting that GAPSS can be a potential quantitative marker of APS-related clinical manifestations. © The Author(s) 2014 Reprints and permissions:

  15. The Veterans Affairs Cardiac Risk Score: Recalibrating the Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Score for Applied Use. (United States)

    Sussman, Jeremy B; Wiitala, Wyndy L; Zawistowski, Matthew; Hofer, Timothy P; Bentley, Douglas; Hayward, Rodney A


    Accurately estimating cardiovascular risk is fundamental to good decision-making in cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention, but risk scores developed in one population often perform poorly in dissimilar populations. We sought to examine whether a large integrated health system can use their electronic health data to better predict individual patients' risk of developing CVD. We created a cohort using all patients ages 45-80 who used Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) ambulatory care services in 2006 with no history of CVD, heart failure, or loop diuretics. Our outcome variable was new-onset CVD in 2007-2011. We then developed a series of recalibrated scores, including a fully refit "VA Risk Score-CVD (VARS-CVD)." We tested the different scores using standard measures of prediction quality. For the 1,512,092 patients in the study, the Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk score had similar discrimination as the VARS-CVD (c-statistic of 0.66 in men and 0.73 in women), but the Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease model had poor calibration, predicting 63% more events than observed. Calibration was excellent in the fully recalibrated VARS-CVD tool, but simpler techniques tested proved less reliable. We found that local electronic health record data can be used to estimate CVD better than an established risk score based on research populations. Recalibration improved estimates dramatically, and the type of recalibration was important. Such tools can also easily be integrated into health system's electronic health record and can be more readily updated.

  16. Lowering risk score profile during PCI in multiple vessel disease is associated with low adverse events: The ERACI risk score. (United States)

    Rodriguez, Alfredo E; Fernandez-Pereira, Carlos; Mieres, Juan; Pavlovsky, Hernan; Del Pozo, Juan; Rodriguez-Granillo, Alfredo M; Antoniucci, David


    In recent years angiographic risk scores have been introduced in clinical practice to stratify different levels of risk after percutaneous coronary interventions (PCI). The SYNTAX score included all intermediate lesions in vessels ≥1.5 mm, consequently, multiple stent implantation was required. Four years ago, we built a new angiographic score in order to guide PCI strategy avoiding stent deployment both in intermediate stenosis as in small vessels, therefore these were not scored (ERACI risk score). The purpose of this mini review is to validate the strategy of PCI guided by this scoring, taking into account long term follow up outcomes of two observational and prospective registries where this policy was used. With this new risk score we have modified risk profile of our patient's candidates for PCI or coronary artery bypass surgery lowering the risk and PCI. The simple exclusion of small vessels and intermediate stenosis from the revascularization approach resulted in clinical outcome comparable with the one of fractional flow reserve guided revascularization. Low events rate at late follow up observed in both studies was also in agreement with guided PCI by functional lesion assessment observed by Syntax II registry, where investigators found lower events rate in spite of a few number of stents implanted per patient. use of ERACI risk scores may significantly reclassify patients into a lower risk category and be associated with low adverse events rate. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  17. Beyond Statistics: The Economic Content of Risk Scores (United States)

    Einav, Liran; Finkelstein, Amy; Kluender, Raymond


    “Big data” and statistical techniques to score potential transactions have transformed insurance and credit markets. In this paper, we observe that these widely-used statistical scores summarize a much richer heterogeneity, and may be endogenous to the context in which they get applied. We demonstrate this point empirically using data from Medicare Part D, showing that risk scores confound underlying health and endogenous spending response to insurance. We then illustrate theoretically that when individuals have heterogeneous behavioral responses to contracts, strategic incentives for cream skimming can still exist, even in the presence of “perfect” risk scoring under a given contract. PMID:27429712

  18. Risk scores-the modern Oracle of Delphi? (United States)

    Kronenberg, Florian; Schwaiger, Johannes P


    Recently, 4 new risk scores for the prediction of mortality and cardiovascular events were especially tailored for hemodialysis patients; these scores performed much better than previous scores. Tripepi et al. found that these risk scores were even more predictive for all-cause and cardiovascular death than the measurement of the left ventricular mass index was. Nevertheless, the investigation of left ventricular mass and function has its own place for other reasons. Copyright © 2016 International Society of Nephrology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Application of the FOUR Score in Intracerebral Hemorrhage Risk Analysis. (United States)

    Braksick, Sherri A; Hemphill, J Claude; Mandrekar, Jay; Wijdicks, Eelco F M; Fugate, Jennifer E


    The Full Outline of Unresponsiveness (FOUR) Score is a validated scale describing the essentials of a coma examination, including motor response, eye opening and eye movements, brainstem reflexes, and respiratory pattern. We incorporated the FOUR Score into the existing ICH Score and evaluated its accuracy of risk assessment in spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). Consecutive patients admitted to our institution from 2009 to 2012 with spontaneous ICH were reviewed. The ICH Score was calculated using patient age, hemorrhage location, hemorrhage volume, evidence of intraventricular extension, and Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS). The FOUR Score was then incorporated into the ICH Score as a substitute for the GCS (ICH Score FS ). The ability of the 2 scores to predict mortality at 1 month was then compared. In total, 274 patients met the inclusion criteria. The median age was 73 years (interquartile range 60-82) and 138 (50.4%) were male. Overall mortality at 1 month was 28.8% (n = 79). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was .91 for the ICH Score and .89 for the ICH Score FS . For ICH Scores of 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5, 1-month mortality was 4.2%, 29.9%, 62.5%, 95.0%, and 100%. In the ICH Score FS model, mortality was 10.7%, 26.5%, 64.5%, 88.9%, and 100% for scores of 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5, respectively. The ICH Score and the ICH Score FS predict 1-month mortality with comparable accuracy. As the FOUR Score provides additional clinical information regarding patient status, it may be a reasonable substitute for the GCS into the ICH Score. Copyright © 2018 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Functional Movement Screen: Pain versus composite score and injury risk. (United States)

    Alemany, Joseph A; Bushman, Timothy T; Grier, Tyson; Anderson, Morgan K; Canham-Chervak, Michelle; North, William J; Jones, Bruce H


    The Functional Movement Screen (FMS™) has been used as a screening tool to determine musculoskeletal injury risk using composite scores based on movement quality and/or pain. However, no direct comparisons between movement quality and pain have been quantified. Retrospective injury data analysis. Male Soldiers (n=2154, 25.0±1.3years; 26.2±.7kg/m 2 ) completed the FMS (scored from 0 points (pain) to 3 points (no pain and perfect movement quality)) with injury data over the following six months. The FMS is seven movements. Injury data were collected six months after FMS completion. Sensitivity, specificity, receiver operator characteristics and positive and negative predictive values were calculated for pain occurrence and low (≤14 points) composite score. Risk, risk ratios (RR) and 95% confidence intervals were calculated for injury risk. Pain was associated with slightly higher injury risk (RR=1.62) than a composite score of ≤14 points (RR=1.58). When comparing injury risk between those who scored a 1, 2 or 3 on each individual movement, no differences were found (except deep squat). However, Soldiers who experienced pain on any movement had a greater injury risk than those who scored 3 points for that movement (pmovements in which pain occurrence increased, so did injury risk (p<0.01). Pain occurrence may be a stronger indicator of injury risk than a low composite score and provides a simpler method of evaluating injury risk compared to the full FMS. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  1. Kyphoplasty increases vertebral height, decreases both pain score and opiate requirements while improving functional status. (United States)

    Tolba, Reda; Bolash, Robert B; Shroll, Joshua; Costandi, Shrif; Dalton, Jarrod E; Sanghvi, Chirag; Mekhail, Nagy


    Vertebral compression fractures can result from advanced osteoporosis, or less commonly from metastatic or traumatic insults to the vertebral column, and result in disabling pain and decreased functional capacity. Various vertebral augmentation options including kyphoplasty aim at preventing the sequelae of pain and immobility that can develop as the result of the vertebral fractures. The mechanism for pain relief following kyphoplasty is not entirely understood, and the restoration of a portion of the lost vertebral height is a subject of debate. We retrospectively reviewed radiographic imaging, pain relief, analgesic intake and functional outcomes in 67 consecutive patients who underwent single- or multilevel kyphoplasty with the primary goal of quantifying the restoration of lost vertebral height. We observed a mean of 45% of the lost vertebral height restored postprocedurally. Secondarily, kyphoplasty was associated with significant decreases in pain scores, daily morphine consumption and improvement in patient-reported functional measures. © 2013 World Institute of Pain.

  2. Macleaya cordata Extract Decreased Diarrhea Score and Enhanced Intestinal Barrier Function in Growing Piglets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gang Liu


    Full Text Available Macleaya cordata extract is of great scientific and practical interest to researchers, due to its antimicrobial and anti-inflammatory responses within experimental animals. This study was designed to determine the diarrhea score and innate immunity of growing piglets after they had received Macleaya cordata extract supplements. A total of 240 growing pigs were randomly assigned to one of three dietary treatments, with 8 replicates per treatment and 10 piglets per replicate. All pigs received a basal diet containing similar amounts of nutrients. The three treatments were a control (no additive, an antibiotic (200 mg/kg colistin, and the Macleaya cordata extract supplement group (40 mg/kg Macleaya cordata extract. The diarrhea score was calculated after D 28. The jejunal samples were obtained from five piglets selected randomly from each treatment on D 28. In comparison with the control group, the dietary Macleaya cordata extract and colistin group demonstrated a substantially decreased diarrhea score. The introduction of Macleaya cordata extract supplements to the diet significantly increased volumes of ZO-1 and claudin-1, particularly in comparison with the pigs in the control group (P<0.05. The findings indicate that Macleaya cordata extract does enhance intestinal barrier function in growing piglets and that it could be used as a viable substitute for antibiotics.

  3. Risk score for contrast induced nephropathy following percutaneous coronary intervention

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghani, Amal Abdel; Tohamy, Khalid Y.


    Contrast-induced nephropathy (CIN) is an important cause of acute renal failure. Identification of risk factors of CIN and creating a simple risk scoring for CIN after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) is important. A prospective single center study was conducted in Kuwait chest disease hospital. All patients admitted to chest disease hospital for PCI from March to May 2005 were included in the study. Total of 247 patients were randomly assigned for the development dataset and 100 for the validation set using the simple random method. The overall occurrence of CIN in the development set was 5.52%. Using multivariate analysis; basal Serum creatinine, shock, female gender, multivessel PCI, and diabetes mellitus were identified as risk factors. Scores assigned to different variables yielded basal creatinine > 115 micron mol/L with the highest score(7), followed by shock (3), female gender, multivessel PCI and diabetes mellitus had the same score (2). Patients were further risk stratified into low risk score ( 1 2). The developed CIN model demonstrated good discriminative power in the validation population. In conclusion, use of a simple risk score for CIN can predict the probability of CIN after PCI; this however needs further validation in larger multicenter trials. (author)

  4. Decreased Visual Function Scores on a Low Luminance Questionnaire Is Associated with Impaired Dark Adaptation. (United States)

    Yazdanie, Mohammad; Alvarez, Jason; Agrón, Elvira; Wong, Wai T; Wiley, Henry E; Ferris, Frederick L; Chew, Emily Y; Cukras, Catherine


    We investigate whether responses on a Low Luminance Questionnaire (LLQ) in patients with a range of age-related macular degeneration (AMD) severity are associated with their performance on focal dark adaptation (DA) testing and with choroidal thickness. Cross-sectional, single-center, observational study. A total of 113 participants older than 50 years of age with a range of AMD severity. Participants answered the LLQ on the same day they underwent DA testing using a focal dark adaptometer measuring rod intercept time (RIT). We performed univariable and multivariable analyses of the LLQ scores and age, RIT, AMD severity, subfoveal choroidal thickness [SFCT], phakic status, and best-corrected visual acuity. The primary outcome of this study was the score on the 32-question LLQ. Each item in the LLQ is designated to 1 of 6 subscales describing functional problems in low luminance: driving, emotional distress, mobility, extreme lighting, peripheral vision, and general dim lighting. Scores were computed for each subscale, in addition to a weighted total mean score. Responses from 113 participants (mean age, 76.2±9.3 years; 58.4% were female) and 113 study eyes were analyzed. Univariable analysis demonstrated that lower scores on all LLQ subscales were correlated with prolonged DA testing (longer RIT) and decreased choroidal thickness. All associations were statistically significant except for the association of choroidal thickness and "peripheral vision." The strongest association was the LLQ subscale of driving with RIT (r =-0.97, P < 0.001). Multivariable analysis for each of the LLQ subscale outcomes, adjusted for age, included RIT, with total LLQ score, "driving," "extreme lighting," and "mobility" also including choroidal thickness. In all multivariable analyses, RIT had a stronger association than choroidal thickness. This cross-sectional analysis demonstrates associations of patient-reported functional deficits, as assessed on the LLQ, with both reduced DA and

  5. Risk score for first-screening of prevalent undiagnosed chronic kidney disease in Peru: the CRONICAS-CKD risk score. (United States)

    Carrillo-Larco, Rodrigo M; Miranda, J Jaime; Gilman, Robert H; Medina-Lezama, Josefina; Chirinos-Pacheco, Julio A; Muñoz-Retamozo, Paola V; Smeeth, Liam; Checkley, William; Bernabe-Ortiz, Antonio


    Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) represents a great burden for the patient and the health system, particularly if diagnosed at late stages. Consequently, tools to identify patients at high risk of having CKD are needed, particularly in limited-resources settings where laboratory facilities are scarce. This study aimed to develop a risk score for prevalent undiagnosed CKD using data from four settings in Peru: a complete risk score including all associated risk factors and another excluding laboratory-based variables. Cross-sectional study. We used two population-based studies: one for developing and internal validation (CRONICAS), and another (PREVENCION) for external validation. Risk factors included clinical- and laboratory-based variables, among others: sex, age, hypertension and obesity; and lipid profile, anemia and glucose metabolism. The outcome was undiagnosed CKD: eGFR anemia were strongly associated with undiagnosed CKD. In the external validation, at a cut-off point of 2, the complete and laboratory-free risk scores performed similarly well with a ROC area of 76.2% and 76.0%, respectively (P = 0.784). The best assessment parameter of these risk scores was their negative predictive value: 99.1% and 99.0% for the complete and laboratory-free, respectively. The developed risk scores showed a moderate performance as a screening test. People with a score of ≥ 2 points should undergo further testing to rule out CKD. Using the laboratory-free risk score is a practical approach in developing countries where laboratories are not readily available and undiagnosed CKD has significant morbidity and mortality.


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grzegorz MICHALSKI


    Full Text Available The basic financial purpose of an enterprise is maximization of its value. Inventory management should also contribute to realization of this fundamental aim. The enterprise value maximization strategy is executed with a focus on risk and uncertainty. This article presents the consequences for the recipients firm that can result from operating risk that is related to delivery risk generated by the suppliers. The present article offers a method that uses portfolio management theory to choose the suppliers.

  7. External validation of the NOBLADS score, a risk scoring system for severe acute lower gastrointestinal bleeding.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomonori Aoki

    Full Text Available We aimed to evaluate the generalizability of NOBLADS, a severe lower gastrointestinal bleeding (LGIB prediction model which we had previously derived when working at a different institution, using an external validation cohort. NOBLADS comprises the following factors: non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug use, no diarrhea, no abdominal tenderness, blood pressure ≤ 100 mmHg, antiplatelet drug use, albumin < 3.0 g/dL, disease score ≥ 2, and syncope.We retrospectively analyzed 511 patients emergently hospitalized for acute LGIB at the University of Tokyo Hospital, from January 2009 to August 2016. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (ROCs-AUCs for severe bleeding (continuous and/or recurrent bleeding were compared between the original derivation cohort and the external validation cohort.Severe LGIB occurred in 44% of patients. Several clinical factors were significantly different between the external and derivation cohorts (p < 0.05, including background, laboratory data, NOBLADS scores, and diagnosis. The NOBLADS score predicted the severity of LGIB with an AUC value of 0.74 in the external validation cohort and one of 0.77 in the derivation cohort. In the external validation cohort, the score predicted the risk for blood transfusion need (AUC, 0.71, but was not adequate for predicting intervention need (AUC, 0.54. The in-hospital mortality rate was higher in patients with a score ≥ 5 than in those with a score < 5 (AUC, 0.83.Although the external validation cohort clinically differed from the derivation cohort in many ways, we confirmed the moderately high generalizability of NOBLADS, a clinical risk score for severe LGIB. Appropriate triage using this score may support early decision-making in various hospitals.

  8. Ezetimibe decreased nonalcoholic fatty liver disease activity score but not hepatic steatosis. (United States)

    Lee, Hyo Young; Jun, Dae Won; Kim, Hyun Jung; Oh, Hyunwoo; Saeed, Waqar Khalid; Ahn, Hyeongsik; Cheung, Ramsey C; Nguyen, Mindie H


    A number of clinical trials reported varying effects of cholesterol lowering agents in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) patients. We, therefore, assessed the changes in hepatic steatosis and NAFLD activity score (NAS) after treatment with cholesterol lowering agents in NAFLD patients by metaanalysis. The Cochrane Library, the MEDLINE, and the Embase databases were searched until May 2015, without any language restrictions, for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and nonrandomized studies (NRSs). Additional references were obtained from review of bibliography of relevant articles. The quality of evidence was assessed using the grading of recommendations assessment, development and evaluation guidelines. Three RCTs (n = 98) and two NRSs (n = 101) met our study inclusion criteria (adult, NAFLD, liver biopsy). Liver biopsy was performed in all five studies, but only the three studies reported NAS. Ezetimibe significantly decreased NAS (standardized mean difference [SMD], -0.30; 95% confidence interval [CI], -0.57 to -0.03) but not hepatic steatosis in RCT (SMD, -0.1; 95% CI, -0.53 to 0.32), while the effect was significant for both NAS and intrahepatic content in NRSs (SMD, -3.0; 95% CI, -6.9 to 0.91). Ezetimibe decreased NAS without improving hepatic steatosis.

  9. [Clinical scores for the risk of bleeding with or without anticoagulation]. (United States)

    Junod, Alain


    The assessment of hemorragic risk related to therapeutic anticoagulation is made difficult because of the variety of existing drugs, the heterogeneity of treatment strategies and their duration. Six prognostic scores have been analyzed. For three of them, external validations have revealed a marked decrease in the discrimination power. One British study, Qbleed, based on the data of more than 1 million of ambulatory patients, has repeatedly satisfied quality criteria. Two scores have also studied the bleeding risk during hospital admission for acute medical disease. The development of new and effective anticoagulants with fewer side-effects is more likely to solve this problem than the production of new clinical scores.

  10. A score for measuring health risk perception in environmental surveys. (United States)

    Marcon, Alessandro; Nguyen, Giang; Rava, Marta; Braggion, Marco; Grassi, Mario; Zanolin, Maria Elisabetta


    In environmental surveys, risk perception may be a source of bias when information on health outcomes is reported using questionnaires. Using the data from a survey carried out in the largest chipboard industrial district in Italy (Viadana, Mantova), we devised a score of health risk perception and described its determinants in an adult population. In 2006, 3697 parents of children were administered a questionnaire that included ratings on 7 environmental issues. Items dimensionality was studied by factor analysis. After testing equidistance across response options by homogeneity analysis, a risk perception score was devised by summing up item ratings. Factor analysis identified one latent factor, which we interpreted as health risk perception, that explained 65.4% of the variance of five items retained after scaling. The scale (range 0-10, mean ± SD 9.3 ± 1.9) had a good internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha 0.87). Most subjects (80.6%) expressed maximum risk perception (score = 10). Italian mothers showed significantly higher risk perception than foreign fathers. Risk perception was higher for parents of young children, and for older parents with a higher education, than for their counterparts. Actual distance to major roads was not associated with the score, while self-reported intense traffic and frequent air refreshing at home predicted higher risk perception. When investigating health effects of environmental hazards using questionnaires, care should be taken to reduce the possibility of awareness bias at the stage of study planning and data analysis. Including appropriate items in study questionnaires can be useful to derive a measure of health risk perception, which can help to identify confounding of association estimates by risk perception. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Risk scoring for the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease. (United States)

    Karmali, Kunal N; Persell, Stephen D; Perel, Pablo; Lloyd-Jones, Donald M; Berendsen, Mark A; Huffman, Mark D


    The current paradigm for cardiovascular disease (CVD) emphasises absolute risk assessment to guide treatment decisions in primary prevention. Although the derivation and validation of multivariable risk assessment tools, or CVD risk scores, have attracted considerable attention, their effect on clinical outcomes is uncertain. To assess the effects of evaluating and providing CVD risk scores in adults without prevalent CVD on cardiovascular outcomes, risk factor levels, preventive medication prescribing, and health behaviours. We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) in the Cochrane Library (2016, Issue 2), MEDLINE Ovid (1946 to March week 1 2016), Embase ( (1974 to 15 March 2016), and Conference Proceedings Citation Index-Science (CPCI-S) (1990 to 15 March 2016). We imposed no language restrictions. We searched clinical trial registers in March 2016 and handsearched reference lists of primary studies to identify additional reports. We included randomised and quasi-randomised trials comparing the systematic provision of CVD risk scores by a clinician, healthcare professional, or healthcare system compared with usual care (i.e. no systematic provision of CVD risk scores) in adults without CVD. Three review authors independently selected studies, extracted data, and evaluated study quality. We used the Cochrane 'Risk of bias' tool to assess study limitations. The primary outcomes were: CVD events, change in CVD risk factor levels (total cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, and multivariable CVD risk), and adverse events. Secondary outcomes included: lipid-lowering and antihypertensive medication prescribing in higher-risk people. We calculated risk ratios (RR) for dichotomous data and mean differences (MD) or standardised mean differences (SMD) for continuous data using 95% confidence intervals. We used a fixed-effects model when heterogeneity (I²) was at least 50% and a random-effects model for substantial heterogeneity

  12. A scoring system for ascertainment of incident stroke; the Risk Index Score (RISc). (United States)

    Kass-Hout, T A; Moyé, L A; Smith, M A; Morgenstern, L B


    The main objective of this study was to develop and validate a computer-based statistical algorithm that could be translated into a simple scoring system in order to ascertain incident stroke cases using hospital admission medical records data. The Risk Index Score (RISc) algorithm was developed using data collected prospectively by the Brain Attack Surveillance in Corpus Christi (BASIC) project, 2000. The validity of RISc was evaluated by estimating the concordance of scoring system stroke ascertainment to stroke ascertainment by physician and/or abstractor review of hospital admission records. RISc was developed on 1718 randomly selected patients (training set) and then statistically validated on an independent sample of 858 patients (validation set). A multivariable logistic model was used to develop RISc and subsequently evaluated by goodness-of-fit and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses. The higher the value of RISc, the higher the patient's risk of potential stroke. The study showed RISc was well calibrated and discriminated those who had potential stroke from those that did not on initial screening. In this study we developed and validated a rapid, easy, efficient, and accurate method to ascertain incident stroke cases from routine hospital admission records for epidemiologic investigations. Validation of this scoring system was achieved statistically; however, clinical validation in a community hospital setting is warranted.

  13. A Soft Intelligent Risk Evaluation Model for Credit Scoring Classification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehdi Khashei


    Full Text Available Risk management is one of the most important branches of business and finance. Classification models are the most popular and widely used analytical group of data mining approaches that can greatly help financial decision makers and managers to tackle credit risk problems. However, the literature clearly indicates that, despite proposing numerous classification models, credit scoring is often a difficult task. On the other hand, there is no universal credit-scoring model in the literature that can be accurately and explanatorily used in all circumstances. Therefore, the research for improving the efficiency of credit-scoring models has never stopped. In this paper, a hybrid soft intelligent classification model is proposed for credit-scoring problems. In the proposed model, the unique advantages of the soft computing techniques are used in order to modify the performance of the traditional artificial neural networks in credit scoring. Empirical results of Australian credit card data classifications indicate that the proposed hybrid model outperforms its components, and also other classification models presented for credit scoring. Therefore, the proposed model can be considered as an appropriate alternative tool for binary decision making in business and finance, especially in high uncertainty conditions.

  14. Prospects for using risk scores in polygenic medicine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cathryn M. Lewis


    Full Text Available Editorial summary Genome-wide association studies have made strides in identifying common variation associated with disease. The modest effect sizes preclude risk prediction based on single genetic variants, but polygenic risk scores that combine thousands of variants show some predictive ability across a range of complex traits and diseases, including neuropsychiatric disorders. Here, we consider the potential for translation to clinical use.

  15. Decreasing cardiovascular risk in HIV infection between 2005 and 2011. (United States)

    De Socio, Giuseppe V; Parruti, Giustino; Ricci, Elena; Maggi, Paolo; Celesia, Benedetto M; Penco, Giovanni; Martinelli, Canio; Franzetti, Marco; Di Biagio, Antonio; Bonfanti, Paolo; Pucci, Giacomo; Schillaci, Giuseppe


    Cardiovascular risk profile was compared in 765 Italian HIV-infected outpatients enrolled in 2005 and in 765 individually age-matched and sex-matched patients enrolled in 2011. Median Framingham risk score was 8.6% in 2005 vs. 7.9% in 2011 (P = 0.04); metabolic syndrome was present in 40.3% vs. 33.4% (P = 0.006). Blood glucose, triglycerides, prevalence of smokers, and lipodystrophy were all significantly lower in 2011 (all P < 0.0001). Cardiovascular risk improved over a 6-year period in Italian HIV-infected patients.

  16. Risk score to predict gastrointestinal bleeding after acute ischemic stroke. (United States)

    Ji, Ruijun; Shen, Haipeng; Pan, Yuesong; Wang, Penglian; Liu, Gaifen; Wang, Yilong; Li, Hao; Singhal, Aneesh B; Wang, Yongjun


    Gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB) is a common and often serious complication after stroke. Although several risk factors for post-stroke GIB have been identified, no reliable or validated scoring system is currently available to predict GIB after acute stroke in routine clinical practice or clinical trials. In the present study, we aimed to develop and validate a risk model (acute ischemic stroke associated gastrointestinal bleeding score, the AIS-GIB score) to predict in-hospital GIB after acute ischemic stroke. The AIS-GIB score was developed from data in the China National Stroke Registry (CNSR). Eligible patients in the CNSR were randomly divided into derivation (60%) and internal validation (40%) cohorts. External validation was performed using data from the prospective Chinese Intracranial Atherosclerosis Study (CICAS). Independent predictors of in-hospital GIB were obtained using multivariable logistic regression in the derivation cohort, and β-coefficients were used to generate point scoring system for the AIS-GIB. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test were used to assess model discrimination and calibration, respectively. A total of 8,820, 5,882, and 2,938 patients were enrolled in the derivation, internal validation and external validation cohorts. The overall in-hospital GIB after AIS was 2.6%, 2.3%, and 1.5% in the derivation, internal, and external validation cohort, respectively. An 18-point AIS-GIB score was developed from the set of independent predictors of GIB including age, gender, history of hypertension, hepatic cirrhosis, peptic ulcer or previous GIB, pre-stroke dependence, admission National Institutes of Health stroke scale score, Glasgow Coma Scale score and stroke subtype (Oxfordshire). The AIS-GIB score showed good discrimination in the derivation (0.79; 95% CI, 0.764-0.825), internal (0.78; 95% CI, 0.74-0.82) and external (0.76; 95% CI, 0.71-0.82) validation cohorts

  17. The fracture risk assessment tool (FRAX® score in subclinical hyperthyroidism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Polovina Snežana


    Full Text Available Background/Aim. The Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX® score is the 10-year estimated risk calculation tool for bone fracture that includes clinical data and hip bone mineral density measured by dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA. The aim of this cross-sectional study was to elucidate the ability of the FRAX® score in discriminating between bone fracture positive and negative pre- and post-menopausal women with subclinical hyperthyroidism. Methods. The bone mineral density (by DXA, thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH level, free thyroxine (fT4 level, thyroid peroxidase antibodies (TPOAb titre, osteocalcin and beta-cross-laps were measured in 27 pre- and post-menopausal women with newly discovered subclinical hyperthyroidism [age 58.85 ± 7.83 years, body mass index (BMI 27.89 ± 3.46 kg/m2, menopause onset in 46.88 ± 10.21 years] and 51 matched euthyroid controls (age 59.69 ± 5.72 years, BMI 27.68 ± 4.66 kg/m2, menopause onset in 48.53 ± 4.58 years. The etiology of subclinical hyperthyroisims was autoimmune thyroid disease or toxic goiter. FRAX® score calculation was performed in both groups. Results. In the group with subclinical hyperthyroidism the main FRAX® score was significantly higher than in the controls (6.50 ± 1.58 vs 4.35 ± 1.56 respectively; p = 0.015. The FRAX® score for hip was also higher in the evaluated group than in the controls (1.33 ± 3.92 vs 0.50 ± 0.46 respectively; p = 0.022. There was no correlations between low TSH and fracture risk (p > 0.05. The ability of the FRAX® score in discriminating between bone fracture positive and negative pre- and postmenopausal female subjects (p < 0.001 is presented by the area under the curve (AUC plotted via ROC analysis. The determined FRAX score cut-off value by this analysis was 6%, with estimated sensitivity and specificity of 95% and 75.9%, respectively. Conclusion. Pre- and postmenopausal women with subclinical hyperthyroidism have higher FRAX® scores and thus

  18. A Novel Risk Scoring System Reliably Predicts Readmission Following Pancreatectomy (United States)

    Valero, Vicente; Grimm, Joshua C.; Kilic, Arman; Lewis, Russell L.; Tosoian, Jeffrey J.; He, Jin; Griffin, James; Cameron, John L.; Weiss, Matthew J.; Vollmer, Charles M.; Wolfgang, Christopher L.


    Background Postoperative readmissions have been proposed by Medicare as a quality metric and may impact provider reimbursement. Since readmission following pancreatectomy is common, we sought to identify factors associated with readmission in order to establish a predictive risk scoring system (RSS). Study Design A retrospective analysis of 2,360 pancreatectomies performed at nine, high-volume pancreatic centers between 2005 and 2011 was performed. Forty-five factors strongly associated with readmission were identified. To derive and validate a RSS, the population was randomly divided into two cohorts in a 4:1 fashion. A multivariable logistic regression model was constructed and scores were assigned based on the relative odds ratio of each independent predictor. A composite Readmission After Pancreatectomy (RAP) score was generated and then stratified to create risk groups. Results Overall, 464 (19.7%) patients were readmitted within 90-days. Eight pre- and postoperative factors, including prior myocardial infarction (OR 2.03), ASA Class ≥ 3 (OR 1.34), dementia (OR 6.22), hemorrhage (OR 1.81), delayed gastric emptying (OR 1.78), surgical site infection (OR 3.31), sepsis (OR 3.10) and short length of stay (OR 1.51), were independently predictive of readmission. The 32-point RAP score generated from the derivation cohort was highly predictive of readmission in the validation cohort (AUC 0.72). The low (0-3), intermediate (4-7) and high risk (>7) groups correlated to 11.7%, 17.5% and 45.4% observed readmission rates, respectively (preadmission following pancreatectomy. Identification of patients with increased risk of readmission using the RAP score will allow efficient resource allocation aimed to attenuate readmission rates. It also has potential to serve as a new metric for comparative research and quality assessment. PMID:25797757

  19. Decreasing scoring errors on Wechsler Scale Vocabulary, Comprehension, and Similarities subtests: a preliminary study. (United States)

    Linger, Michele L; Ray, Glen E; Zachar, Peter; Underhill, Andrea T; LoBello, Steven G


    Studies of graduate students learning to administer the Wechsler scales have generally shown that training is not associated with the development of scoring proficiency. Many studies report on the reduction of aggregated administration and scoring errors, a strategy that does not highlight the reduction of errors on subtests identified as most prone to error. This study evaluated the development of scoring proficiency specifically on the Wechsler (WISC-IV and WAIS-III) Vocabulary, Comprehension, and Similarities subtests during training by comparing a set of 'early test administrations' to 'later test administrations.' Twelve graduate students enrolled in an intelligence-testing course participated in the study. Scoring errors (e.g., incorrect point assignment) were evaluated on the students' actual practice administration test protocols. Errors on all three subtests declined significantly when scoring errors on 'early' sets of Wechsler scales were compared to those made on 'later' sets. However, correcting these subtest scoring errors did not cause significant changes in subtest scaled scores. Implications for clinical instruction and future research are discussed.

  20. Relationship between framingham risk score and coronary artery calcium score in asymptomatic Korean individuals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heo, So Young; Park, Noh Hyuck; Park, Chan Sub; Seong, Su Ok


    We explored the association between Framingham risk score (FRS) and coronary artery calcium score (CACS) in asymptomatic Korean individuals. We retrospectively analyzed 2216 participants who underwent routine health screening and CACS using the 64-slice multidetector computed tomography between January 2010 and June 2014. Relationship between CACS and FRS, and factors associated with discrepancy between CACS and FRS were analyzed. CACS and FRS were positively correlated (p < 0.0001). However, in 3.7% of participants with low coronary event risk and high CACS, age, male gender, smoker, hypertension, total cholesterol, diabetes mellitus, and body mass index (BMI; ≥ 35) were associated with the discrepancy. In the diagnostic prediction model for discrepancy, the receiver operating characteristic curve including factors associated with FRS, diastolic blood pressure (≥ 75 mm Hg), diabetes mellitus, and BMI (≥ 35) showed that the area under the curve was 0.854 (95% confidence interval, 0.819–0.890), indicating good sensitivity. Diabetes mellitus or obesity (BMI ≥ 35) compensate for the weakness of FRS and may be potential indicators for application of CACS in asymptomatic Koreans with low coronary event risk

  1. Relationship between framingham risk score and coronary artery calcium score in asymptomatic Korean individuals

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heo, So Young; Park, Noh Hyuck; Park, Chan Sub; Seong, Su Ok [Dept. of Radiology, Myongji Hospital, Seonam University College of Medicine, Goyang (Korea, Republic of)


    We explored the association between Framingham risk score (FRS) and coronary artery calcium score (CACS) in asymptomatic Korean individuals. We retrospectively analyzed 2216 participants who underwent routine health screening and CACS using the 64-slice multidetector computed tomography between January 2010 and June 2014. Relationship between CACS and FRS, and factors associated with discrepancy between CACS and FRS were analyzed. CACS and FRS were positively correlated (p < 0.0001). However, in 3.7% of participants with low coronary event risk and high CACS, age, male gender, smoker, hypertension, total cholesterol, diabetes mellitus, and body mass index (BMI; ≥ 35) were associated with the discrepancy. In the diagnostic prediction model for discrepancy, the receiver operating characteristic curve including factors associated with FRS, diastolic blood pressure (≥ 75 mm Hg), diabetes mellitus, and BMI (≥ 35) showed that the area under the curve was 0.854 (95% confidence interval, 0.819–0.890), indicating good sensitivity. Diabetes mellitus or obesity (BMI ≥ 35) compensate for the weakness of FRS and may be potential indicators for application of CACS in asymptomatic Koreans with low coronary event risk.

  2. Development of an interstitial cystitis risk score for bladder permeability.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura E Lamb

    Full Text Available Interstitial cystitis/bladder pain syndrome (IC is a multifactorial syndrome of severe pelvic and genitalia pain and compromised urinary function; a subset of IC patients present with Hunner's lesions or ulcers on their bladder walls (UIC. UIC is diagnosed by cystoscopy, which may be quite painful. The objective of this study was to determine if a calculated Bladder Permeability Defect Risk Score (BP-RS based on non-invasive urinary cytokines could discriminate UIC patients from controls and IC patients without Hunner's ulcers.A national crowdsourcing effort targeted IC patients and age-matched controls to provide urine samples. Urinary cytokine levels for GRO, IL-6, and IL-8 were determined using a Luminex assay.We collected 448 urine samples from 46 states consisting of 153 IC patients (147 female, 6 male, of which 54 UIC patients (50 females, 4 male, 159 female controls, and 136 male controls. A defined BP-RS was calculated to classify UIC, or a bladder permeability defect etiology, with 89% validity.The BP-RS Score quantifies UIC risk, indicative of a bladder permeability defect etiology in a subset of IC patients. The Bladder Permeability Defect Risk Score is the first validated urine biomarker assay for interstitial cystitis/bladder pain syndrome.

  3. Glucocorticosteroids Associated With a Decreased Risk of Psychosis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Laan, Wijnand; Smeets, Hugo; de Wit, Niek J.; Kahn, Rene S.; Grobbee, Diederick E.; Burger, Huibert

    The hypothesis that chronic inflammation may play a role in psychosis receives increasing attention. In this study, we aim to investigate whether the use of steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs is associated with a decreased risk of psychosis. A longitudinal nested case-control study was performed

  4. Scope Complexity Options Risks Excursions (SCORE) Factor Mathematical Description.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gearhart, Jared Lee [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Samberson, Jonell Nicole [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Shettigar, Subhasini [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Jungels, John [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Welch, Kimberly M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Jones, Dean A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)


    The purpose of the Scope, Complexity, Options, Risks, Excursions (SCORE) model is to estimate the relative complexity of design variants of future warhead options, resulting in scores. SCORE factors extend this capability by providing estimates of complexity relative to a base system (i.e., all design options are normalized to one weapon system). First, a clearly defined set of scope elements for a warhead option is established. The complexity of each scope element is estimated by Subject Matter Experts (SMEs), including a level of uncertainty, relative to a specific reference system. When determining factors, complexity estimates for a scope element can be directly tied to the base system or chained together via comparable scope elements in a string of reference systems that ends with the base system. The SCORE analysis process is a growing multi-organizational Nuclear Security Enterprise (NSE) effort, under the management of the NA-12 led Enterprise Modeling and Analysis Consortium (EMAC). Historically, it has provided the data elicitation, integration, and computation needed to support the out-year Life Extension Program (LEP) cost estimates included in the Stockpile Stewardship Management Plan (SSMP).

  5. Association of a Dietary Score with Incident Type 2 Diabetes: The Dietary-Based Diabetes-Risk Score (DDS.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ligia J Dominguez

    Full Text Available Strong evidence supports that dietary modifications may decrease incident type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM. Numerous diabetes risk models/scores have been developed, but most do not rely specifically on dietary variables or do not fully capture the overall dietary pattern. We prospectively assessed the association of a dietary-based diabetes-risk score (DDS, which integrates optimal food patterns, with the risk of developing T2DM in the SUN ("Seguimiento Universidad de Navarra" longitudinal study.We assessed 17,292 participants initially free of diabetes, followed-up for a mean of 9.2 years. A validated 136-item FFQ was administered at baseline. Taking into account previous literature, the DDS positively weighted vegetables, fruit, whole cereals, nuts, coffee, low-fat dairy, fiber, PUFA, and alcohol in moderate amounts; while it negatively weighted red meat, processed meats and sugar-sweetened beverages. Energy-adjusted quintiles of each item (with exception of moderate alcohol consumption that received either 0 or 5 points were used to build the DDS (maximum: 60 points. Incident T2DM was confirmed through additional detailed questionnaires and review of medical records of participants. We used Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for socio-demographic and anthropometric parameters, health-related habits, and clinical variables to estimate hazard ratios (HR of T2DM.We observed 143 T2DM confirmed cases during follow-up. Better baseline conformity with the DDS was associated with lower incidence of T2DM (multivariable-adjusted HR for intermediate (25-39 points vs. low (11-24 category 0.43 [95% confidence interval (CI 0.21, 0.89]; and for high (40-60 vs. low category 0.32 [95% CI: 0.14, 0.69]; p for linear trend: 0.019.The DDS, a simple score exclusively based on dietary components, showed a strong inverse association with incident T2DM. This score may be applicable in clinical practice to improve dietary habits of subjects at high risk of T2DM

  6. Healthy lifestyle and decreasing risk of heart failure in women: the Women's Health Initiative observational study. (United States)

    Agha, Golareh; Loucks, Eric B; Tinker, Lesley F; Waring, Molly E; Michaud, Dominique S; Foraker, Randi E; Li, Wenjun; Martin, Lisa W; Greenland, Philip; Manson, JoAnn E; Eaton, Charles B


    The impact of a healthy lifestyle on risk of heart failure (HF) is not well known. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the effect of a combination of lifestyle factors on incident HF and to further investigate whether weighting each lifestyle factor has additional impact. Participants were 84,537 post-menopausal women from the WHI (Women's Health Initiative) observational study, free of self-reported HF at baseline. A healthy lifestyle score (HL score) was created wherein women received 1 point for each healthy criterion met: high-scoring Alternative Healthy Eating Index, physically active, healthy body mass index, and currently not smoking. A weighted score (wHL score) was also created in which each lifestyle factor was weighted according to its independent magnitude of effect on HF. The incidence of hospitalized HF was determined by trained adjudicators using standardized methodology. There were 1,826 HF cases over a mean follow-up of 11 years. HL score was strongly associated with risk of HF (multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio [HR] [95% confidence interval (CI)] 0.49 [95% CI: 0.38 to 0.62], 0.36 [95% CI: 0.28 to 0.46], 0.24 [95% CI: 0.19 to 0.31], and 0.23 [95% CI: 0.17 to 0.30] for HL score of 1, 2, 3, and 4 vs. 0, respectively). The HL score and wHL score were similarly associated with HF risk (HR: 0.46 [95% CI: 0.41 to 0.52] for HL score; HR: 0.48 [95% CI: 0.42 to 0.55] for wHL score, comparing the highest tertile to the lowest). The HL score was also strongly associated with HF risk among women without antecedent coronary heart disease, diabetes, or hypertension. An increasingly healthy lifestyle was associated with decreasing HF risk among post-menopausal women, even in the absence of antecedent coronary heart disease, hypertension, and diabetes. Weighting the lifestyle factors had minimal impact. Copyright © 2014 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Catechins decrease neurological severity score through apoptosis and neurotropic factor pathway in rat traumatic brain injury

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Retty Ratnawati


    Administration of catechins decreased NSS through inhibiting inflammation and apoptosis, as well as induced the neurotrophic factors in rat brain injury. Catechins may serve as a potential intervention for TBI.

  8. Polygenic risk score is associated with increased disease risk in 52 Finnish breast cancer families


    Muranen, Taru A.; Mavaddat, Nasim; Khan, Sofia; Fagerholm, Rainer; Pelttari, Liisa; Lee, Andrew; Aittom?ki, Kristiina; Blomqvist, Carl; Easton, Douglas F.; Nevanlinna, Heli


    The risk of developing breast cancer is increased in women with family history of breast cancer and particularly in families with multiple cases of breast or ovarian cancer. Nevertheless, many women with a positive family history never develop the disease. Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) based on the risk effects of multiple common genetic variants have been proposed for individual risk assessment on a population level. We investigate the applicability of the PRS for risk prediction within breas...

  9. Risk-adjusted scoring systems in colorectal surgery. (United States)

    Leung, Edmund; McArdle, Kirsten; Wong, Ling S


    Consequent to recent advances in surgical techniques and management, survival rate has increased substantially over the last 25 years, particularly in colorectal cancer patients. However, post-operative morbidity and mortality from colorectal cancer vary widely across the country. Therefore, standardised outcome measures are emphasised not only for professional accountability, but also for comparison between treatment units and regions. In a heterogeneous population, the use of crude mortality as an outcome measure for patients undergoing surgery is simply misleading. Meaningful comparisons, however, require accurate risk stratification of patients being analysed before conclusions can be reached regarding the outcomes recorded. Sub-specialised colorectal surgical units usually dedicated to more complex and high-risk operations. The need for accurate risk prediction is necessary in these units as both mortality and morbidity often are tools to justify the practice of high-risk surgery. The Acute Physiology And Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) is a system for classifying patients in the intensive care unit. However, APACHE score was considered too complex for general surgical use. The American Society of Anaesthesiologists (ASA) grade has been considered useful as an adjunct to informed consent and for monitoring surgical performance through time. ASA grade is simple but too subjective. The Physiological & Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) and its variant Portsmouth POSSUM (P-POSSUM) were devised to predict outcomes in surgical patients in general, taking into account of the variables in the case-mix. POSSUM has two parts, which include assessment of physiological parameters and operative scores. There are 12 physiological parameters and 6 operative measures. The physiological parameters are taken at the time of surgery. Each physiological parameter or operative variable is sub-divided into three or four levels with

  10. Decreased Renal Function Is Associated with Elevated CHA2DS2VASC and R2CHADS2 Scores in Non-Valvular Atrial Fibrillation Patients Presenting with Stroke. (United States)

    Vindhyal, Mohinder; Vindhyal, Shravani R; Haneke, Travis; Ndunda, Paul M; Eid, Freidy; Kallail, K James


    Introduction Atrial fibrillation (AF), the most common cardiac arrhythmia, affects approximately 2.3 million patients in the United States, costing around $26 billion. Atrial fibrillation is associated with a two- to seven-fold increased risk of stroke, one of the most serious complications. Chronic kidney disease affects approximately 13% of the US population and has been associated with higher rates of AF than the general population. In patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD), the risk of stroke increases as the glomerular filtration rate (GFR) decreases, especially in CKD stages three and four. Several risks stratification scores such as CHADS2 (congestive heart failure, hypertension, age, diabetes mellitus, stroke), CHA2DS2VASc (congestive heart failure, hypertension, age, diabetes mellitus, stroke, vascular disease, age, sex), and R2CHADS2 (renal failure, congestive heart failure, age, diabetes, stroke) scores are used for stroke risk assessment in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). This study investigates the association between renal functions and risk stratification scoring systems in patients with non-valvular AF presenting with stroke. Methods Using the convenience sampling method, 171 subjects were selected from the eligible population (n = 386). A Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient was calculated to determine the association between the GFR and each of the CHA2DS2VASc and R2CHADS2 scores. In addition, a Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient was calculated to determine the association between the CHA2DS2VASc and R2CHADS2 scores. Results The selected population represented 44.3% of the eligible subjects. Of these, 88% were Caucasian, 60% were female, and the mean age was 78 years. The mean CHA2DS2VASc score was six (range 2-9). The mean eGFR was 69.77 (range 6-108). Both the mode and the median CHA2DS2VASc score was four (range 2-8). A weak, but significant, negative correlation was found between renal

  11. Glucocorticosteroids Associated With a Decreased Risk of Psychosis


    Laan, Wijnand; Smeets, Hugo; de Wit, Niek J.; Kahn, Rene S.; Grobbee, Diederick E.; Burger, Huibert


    The hypothesis that chronic inflammation may play a role in psychosis receives increasing attention. In this study, we aim to investigate whether the use of steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs is associated with a decreased risk of psychosis. A longitudinal nested case-control study was performed investigating the association of glucocorticosteroid (GCS) consumption with a new diagnosis of a psychotic disorder. Significantly reduced odds ratios of 0.52 (95% confidence interval, 0.36-0.75) were ...

  12. Genetically decreased vitamin D and risk of Alzheimer disease. (United States)

    Mokry, Lauren E; Ross, Stephanie; Morris, John A; Manousaki, Despoina; Forgetta, Vincenzo; Richards, J Brent


    To test whether genetically decreased vitamin D levels are associated with Alzheimer disease (AD) using mendelian randomization (MR), a method that minimizes bias due to confounding or reverse causation. We selected single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that are strongly associated with 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25OHD) levels (p risk from the International Genomics of Alzheimer's Project (N = 17,008 AD cases and 37,154 controls). To produce MR estimates, we weighted the effect of each SNP on AD by its effect on 25OHD and meta-analyzed these estimates using a fixed-effects model to provide a summary effect estimate. The SUNLIGHT Consortium identified 4 SNPs to be genome-wide significant for 25OHD, which described 2.44% of the variance in 25OHD in CaMos. All 4 SNPs map to genes within the vitamin D metabolic pathway. MR analyses demonstrated that a 1-SD decrease in natural log-transformed 25OHD increased AD risk by 25% (odds ratio 1.25, 95% confidence interval 1.03-1.51, p = 0.021). After sensitivity analysis in which we removed SNPs possibly influenced by pleiotropy and population stratification, the results were largely unchanged. Our results provide evidence supporting 25OHD as a causal risk factor for AD. These findings provide further rationale to understand the effect of vitamin D supplementation on cognition and AD risk in randomized controlled trials. © 2016 American Academy of Neurology.

  13. Developing points-based risk-scoring systems in the presence of competing risks. (United States)

    Austin, Peter C; Lee, Douglas S; D'Agostino, Ralph B; Fine, Jason P


    Predicting the occurrence of an adverse event over time is an important issue in clinical medicine. Clinical prediction models and associated points-based risk-scoring systems are popular statistical methods for summarizing the relationship between a multivariable set of patient risk factors and the risk of the occurrence of an adverse event. Points-based risk-scoring systems are popular amongst physicians as they permit a rapid assessment of patient risk without the use of computers or other electronic devices. The use of such points-based risk-scoring systems facilitates evidence-based clinical decision making. There is a growing interest in cause-specific mortality and in non-fatal outcomes. However, when considering these types of outcomes, one must account for competing risks whose occurrence precludes the occurrence of the event of interest. We describe how points-based risk-scoring systems can be developed in the presence of competing events. We illustrate the application of these methods by developing risk-scoring systems for predicting cardiovascular mortality in patients hospitalized with acute myocardial infarction. Code in the R statistical programming language is provided for the implementation of the described methods. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  14. The Impact of EuroSCORE II Risk Factors on Prediction of Long-Term Mortality. (United States)

    Barili, Fabio; Pacini, Davide; D'Ovidio, Mariangela; Dang, Nicholas C; Alamanni, Francesco; Di Bartolomeo, Roberto; Grossi, Claudio; Davoli, Marina; Fusco, Danilo; Parolari, Alessandro


    The European System for Cardiac Operation Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) II has not been tested yet for predicting long-term mortality. This study was undertaken to evaluate the relationship between EuroSCORE II and long-term mortality and to develop a new algorithm based on EuroSCORE II factors to predict long-term survival after cardiac surgery. Complete data on 10,033 patients who underwent major cardiac surgery during a 7-year period were retrieved from three prospective institutional databases and linked with the Italian Tax Register Information System. Mortality at follow-up was analyzed with time-to-event analysis. The Kaplan-Meier estimates of survival at 1 and 5 were, respectively, 95.0% ± 0.2% and 84.7% ± 0.4%. Both discrimination and calibration of EuroSCORE II decreased in the prediction of 1-year and 5-year mortality. Nonetheless, EuroSCORE II was confirmed to be an independent predictor of long-term mortality with a nonlinear trend. Several EuroSCORE II variables were independent risk factors for long-term mortality in a regression model, most of all very low ejection fraction (less than 20%), salvage operation, and dialysis. In the final model, isolated mitral valve surgery and isolated coronary artery bypass graft surgery were associated with improved long-term survival. The EuroSCORE II cannot be considered a direct estimator of long-term risk of death, as its performance fades for mortality at follow-up longer than 30 days. Nonetheless, it is nonlinearly associated with long-term mortality, and most of its variables are risk factors for long-term mortality. Hence, they can be used in a different algorithm to stratify the risk of long-term mortality after surgery. Copyright © 2016 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. The associations between a polygenic score, reproductive and menstrual risk factors and breast cancer risk. (United States)

    Warren Andersen, Shaneda; Trentham-Dietz, Amy; Gangnon, Ronald E; Hampton, John M; Figueroa, Jonine D; Skinner, Halcyon G; Engelman, Corinne D; Klein, Barbara E; Titus, Linda J; Newcomb, Polly A


    We evaluated whether 13 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) identified in genome-wide association studies interact with one another and with reproductive and menstrual risk factors in association with breast cancer risk. DNA samples and information on parity, breastfeeding, age at menarche, age at first birth, and age at menopause were collected through structured interviews from 1,484 breast cancer cases and 1,307 controls who participated in a population-based case-control study conducted in three US states. A polygenic score was created as the sum of risk allele copies multiplied by the corresponding log odds estimate. Logistic regression was used to test the associations between SNPs, the score, reproductive and menstrual factors, and breast cancer risk. Nonlinearity of the score was assessed by the inclusion of a quadratic term for polygenic score. Interactions between the aforementioned variables were tested by including a cross-product term in models. We confirmed associations between rs13387042 (2q35), rs4973768 (SLC4A7), rs10941679 (5p12), rs2981582 (FGFR2), rs3817198 (LSP1), rs3803662 (TOX3), and rs6504950 (STXBP4) with breast cancer. Women in the score's highest quintile had 2.2-fold increased risk when compared to women in the lowest quintile (95 % confidence interval: 1.67-2.88). The quadratic polygenic score term was not significant in the model (p = 0.85), suggesting that the established breast cancer loci are not associated with increased risk more than the sum of risk alleles. Modifications of menstrual and reproductive risk factors associations with breast cancer risk by polygenic score were not observed. Our results suggest that the interactions between breast cancer susceptibility loci and reproductive factors are not strong contributors to breast cancer risk.

  16. Comparing Bleeding Risk Assessment Focused on Modifiable Risk Factors Only Versus Validated Bleeding Risk Scores in Atrial Fibrillation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Guo, Yutao; Zhu, Hang; Chen, Yundai


    BACKGROUNDThere is uncertainty whether a focus on modifiable bleeding risk factors offers better prediction of major bleeding than other existing bleeding risk scores.METHODSThis study compared a score based on numbers of the modifiable bleeding risk factors recommended in the 2016 European...... guidelines ("European risk score") versus other published bleeding risk scores that have been derived and validated in atrial fibrillation subjects (HEMORR2HAGES, HAS-BLED, ATRIA, and ORBIT) in a large hospital-based cohort of Chinese inpatients with atrial fibrillation.RESULTSThe European score had modest...... predictive ability for major bleeding (c-index 0.63, 95% confidence interval 0.56-0.69) and intracranial hemorrhage (0.72, 0.65-0.79) but nonsignificantly (and poorly) predicted extracranial bleeding (0.55, 0.54-0.56; P = .361). The HAS-BLED score was superior to predict bleeding events compared...

  17. Weighing of risk factors for penetrating keratoplasty graft failure: application of Risk Score System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdo Karim Tourkmani


    Full Text Available AIM: To analyze the relationship between the score obtained in the Risk Score System (RSS proposed by Hicks et al with penetrating keratoplasty (PKP graft failure at 1y postoperatively and among each factor in the RSS with the risk of PKP graft failure using univariate and multivariate analysis. METHODS: The retrospective cohort study had 152 PKPs from 152 patients. Eighteen cases were excluded from our study due to primary failure (10 cases, incomplete medical notes (5 cases and follow-up less than 1y (3 cases. We included 134 PKPs from 134 patients stratified by preoperative risk score. Spearman coefficient was calculated for the relationship between the score obtained and risk of failure at 1y. Univariate and multivariate analysis were calculated for the impact of every single risk factor included in the RSS over graft failure at 1y. RESULTS: Spearman coefficient showed statistically significant correlation between the score in the RSS and graft failure (P0.05 between diagnosis and lens status with graft failure. The relationship between the other risk factors studied and graft failure was significant (P<0.05, although the results for previous grafts and graft failure was unreliable. None of our patients had previous blood transfusion, thus, it had no impact. CONCLUSION: After the application of multivariate analysis techniques, some risk factors do not show the expected impact over graft failure at 1y.

  18. The ERICE-score: the new native cardiovascular score for the low-risk and aged Mediterranean population of Spain. (United States)

    Gabriel, Rafael; Brotons, Carlos; Tormo, M José; Segura, Antonio; Rigo, Fernando; Elosua, Roberto; Carbayo, Julio A; Gavrila, Diana; Moral, Irene; Tuomilehto, Jaakko; Muñiz, Javier


    In Spain, data based on large population-based cohorts adequate to provide an accurate prediction of cardiovascular risk have been scarce. Thus, calibration of the EuroSCORE and Framingham scores has been proposed and done for our population. The aim was to develop a native risk prediction score to accurately estimate the individual cardiovascular risk in the Spanish population. Seven Spanish population-based cohorts including middle-aged and elderly participants were assembled. There were 11800 people (6387 women) representing 107915 person-years of follow-up. A total of 1214 cardiovascular events were identified, of which 633 were fatal. Cox regression analyses were conducted to examine the contributions of the different variables to the 10-year total cardiovascular risk. Age was the strongest cardiovascular risk factor. High systolic blood pressure, diabetes mellitus and smoking were strong predictive factors. The contribution of serum total cholesterol was small. Antihypertensive treatment also had a significant impact on cardiovascular risk, greater in men than in women. The model showed a good discriminative power (C-statistic=0.789 in men and C=0.816 in women). Ten-year risk estimations are displayed graphically in risk charts separately for men and women. The ERICE is a new native cardiovascular risk score for the Spanish population derived from the background and contemporaneous risk of several Spanish cohorts. The ERICE score offers the direct and reliable estimation of total cardiovascular risk, taking in consideration the effect of diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular risk factor management. The ERICE score is a practical and useful tool for clinicians to estimate the total individual cardiovascular risk in Spain. Copyright © 2014 Sociedad Española de Cardiología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  19. Melanoma risk prediction using a multilocus genetic risk score in the Women's Health Initiative cohort. (United States)

    Cho, Hyunje G; Ransohoff, Katherine J; Yang, Lingyao; Hedlin, Haley; Assimes, Themistocles; Han, Jiali; Stefanick, Marcia; Tang, Jean Y; Sarin, Kavita Y


    Single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with melanoma have been identified though genome-wide association studies. However, the combined impact of these SNPs on melanoma development remains unclear, particularly in postmenopausal women who carry a lower melanoma risk. We examine the contribution of a combined polygenic risk score on melanoma development in postmenopausal women. Genetic risk scores were calculated using 21 genome-wide association study-significant SNPs. Their combined effect on melanoma development was evaluated in 19,102 postmenopausal white women in the clinical trial and observational study arms of the Women's Health Initiative dataset. Compared to the tertile of weighted genetic risk score with the lowest genetic risk, the women in the tertile with the highest genetic risk were 1.9 times more likely to develop melanoma (95% confidence interval 1.50-2.42). The incremental change in c-index from adding genetic risk scores to age were 0.075 (95% confidence interval 0.041-0.109) for incident melanoma. Limitations include a lack of information on nevi count, Fitzpatrick skin type, family history of melanoma, and potential reporting and selection bias in the Women's Health Initiative cohort. Higher genetic risk is associated with increased melanoma prevalence and incidence in postmenopausal women, but current genetic information may have a limited role in risk prediction when phenotypic information is available. Copyright © 2018 American Academy of Dermatology, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Glucocorticosteroids associated with a decreased risk of psychosis. (United States)

    Laan, Wijnand; Smeets, Hugo; de Wit, Niek J; Kahn, René S; Grobbee, Diederick E; Burger, Huibert


    The hypothesis that chronic inflammation may play a role in psychosis receives increasing attention. In this study, we aim to investigate whether the use of steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs is associated with a decreased risk of psychosis.A longitudinal nested case-control study was performed investigating the association of glucocorticosteroid (GCS) consumption with a new diagnosis of a psychotic disorder. Significantly reduced odds ratios of 0.52 (95% confidence interval, 0.36-0.75) were found for GCS in men only (odds ratio in women, 0.84 [95% confidence interval, 0.590-1.20]). Similar risk reductions were present for the inhaled and systemic GCSs. A dose-response relationship was present. Our finding of an inverse relation between GCS consumption and new psychotic episodes may promote further research into inflammation in schizophrenia.


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SUSU Stefanita


    Full Text Available Bankruptcy risk made the subject of many research studies that aim at identifying the time of the bankruptcy, the factors that compete to achieve this state, the indicators that best express this orientation (the bankruptcy. The threats to enterprises require the managers knowledge of continually economic and financial situations, and vulnerable areas with development potential. Managers need to identify and properly manage the threats that would prevent achieving the targets. In terms of methods known in the literature of assessment and evaluation of bankruptcy risk they are static, functional, strategic, and scoring nonfinancial models. This article addresses Altman and Conan-Holder-known internationally as the model developed at national level by two teachers from prestigious universities in our country-the Robu-Mironiuc model. Those models are applied to data released by the profit and loss account and balance sheet Turism Covasna company over which bankruptcy risk analysis is performed. The results of the analysis are interpreted while trying to formulate solutions to the economic and financial viability of the entity.

  2. Metabolic syndrome and Framingham risk score in obese young adults

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Felix F. Widjaja


    Full Text Available Background: The increase number of the metabolic syndrome (MetS among young adults was mostly caused by obesity. MetS increases the risk of coronary heart disease (CHD which can be estimated by Framingham risk score (FRS. The study was aimed to know the prevalence of MetS and FRS in obese young adults and to associate them with the components of MetS. Methods: A total of 70 male and female students aged 18 to 25 years with BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2 in Faculty of Medicine Universitas Indonesia were selected consecutively. The blood samples used to test fasting blood glucose, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein, and triglyceride were examined in Department of Clinical Pathology, Cipto Mangunkusumo Hospital after fasting for 14 to 16 hours. International Diabetes Federation (IDF definition was used to diagnose MetS. Univariate and bivariate analysis were done. Results: The prevalence of MetS based on IDF definition was 18.6% among obese young adults. The most associated MetS components was hypertriglyceridemia (OR 12.13; 95% CI 2.92-50.46; p = 0.001, followed with high blood pressure (OR 9.33; 95% CI 2.26-38.56; p = 0.001, low-HDL (OR 8.33; 95% CI 2.17-32.05; p = 0.003, and impaired fasting glucose (p = 0.03. Four subjects had FRS ≥ 1% and 66 subjects had risk < 1%. Increased FRS was not associated with MetS (p = 0.154. There was no component of MetS associated with increased FRS. Conclusion: Prevalence of MetS in obese young adults was similar with obese children and adolescents. Although no association of MetS and FRS was found, they are significant predictors for CHD which should not be used separately. (Med J Indones. 2013;22:100-6Keywords: Abdominal obesity, Framingham risk score, metabolic syndrome, young adults

  3. The HAT Score-A Simple Risk Stratification Score for Coagulopathic Bleeding During Adult Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation. (United States)

    Lonergan, Terence; Herr, Daniel; Kon, Zachary; Menaker, Jay; Rector, Raymond; Tanaka, Kenichi; Mazzeffi, Michael


    The study objective was to create an adult extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) coagulopathic bleeding risk score. Secondary analysis was performed on an existing retrospective cohort. Pre-ECMO variables were tested for association with coagulopathic bleeding, and those with the strongest association were included in a multivariable model. Using this model, a risk stratification score was created. The score's utility was validated by comparing bleeding and transfusion rates between score levels. Bleeding also was examined after stratifying by nadir platelet count and overanticoagulation. Predictive power of the score was compared against the risk score for major bleeding during anti-coagulation for atrial fibrillation (HAS-BLED). Tertiary care academic medical center. The study comprised patients who received venoarterial or venovenous ECMO over a 3-year period, excluding those with an identified source of surgical bleeding during exploration. None. Fifty-three (47.3%) of 112 patients experienced coagulopathic bleeding. A 3-variable score-hypertension, age greater than 65, and ECMO type (HAT)-had fair predictive value (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC] = 0.66) and was superior to HAS-BLED (AUC = 0.64). As the HAT score increased from 0 to 3, bleeding rates also increased as follows: 30.8%, 48.7%, 63.0%, and 71.4%, respectively. Platelet and fresh frozen plasma transfusion tended to increase with the HAT score, but red blood cell transfusion did not. Nadir platelet count less than 50×10 3 /µL and overanticoagulation during ECMO increased the AUC for the model to 0.73, suggesting additive risk. The HAT score may allow for bleeding risk stratification in adult ECMO patients. Future studies in larger cohorts are necessary to confirm these findings. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Risk factors affecting injury severity determined by the MAIS score. (United States)

    Ferreira, Sara; Amorim, Marco; Couto, Antonio


    . This study showed the impact of variables, such as the presence of blood alcohol, the use of protection devices, the type of crash, and the site characteristics, on the injury severity classified according to the MAIS score. Additionally, the sex and age of the victims were analyzed as risk factors, showing that elderly and male road users are highly associated with MAIS 3+ injuries. The comparison between the marginal effects of the variables estimated by the MAIS and LHS models showed significant differences. In addition to the differences in the magnitude of impact of each variable, we found that the impact of the road environment variable was dependent on the injury severity classification. The differences in the effects of risk factors between the classifications highlight the importance of using a reliable classification of injury severity. Additionally, the relationship between LHS and MAIS levels is quite different among countries, supporting the previous conclusion that bias is expected in the assessment of risk factors if an injury severity classification other than MAIS is used.

  5. Performance of upper gastrointestinal bleeding risk assessment scores in variceal bleeding

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ngu, JH; Laursen, Stig Borbjerg; Chin, YK


    Performance of upper gastrointestinal bleeding risk assessment scores in variceal bleeding: a prospective international multicenter study.......Performance of upper gastrointestinal bleeding risk assessment scores in variceal bleeding: a prospective international multicenter study....

  6. A Danish diabetes risk score for targeted screening: the Inter99 study. (United States)

    Glümer, Charlotte; Carstensen, Bendix; Sandbaek, Annelli; Lauritzen, Torsten; Jørgensen, Torben; Borch-Johnsen, Knut


    To develop a simple self-administered questionnaire identifying individuals with undiagnosed diabetes with a sensitivity of 75% and minimizing the high-risk group needing subsequent testing. A population-based sample (Inter99 study) of 6,784 individuals aged 30-60 years completed a questionnaire on diabetes-related symptoms and risk factors. The participants underwent an oral glucose tolerance test. The risk score was derived from the first half and validated on the second half of the study population. External validation was performed based on the Danish Anglo-Danish-Dutch Study of Intensive Treatment in People with Screen Detected Diabetes in Primary Care (ADDITION) pilot study. The risk score was developed by stepwise backward multiple logistic regression. The final risk score included age, sex, BMI, known hypertension, physical activity at leisure time, and family history of diabetes, items independently and significantly (Pscreening strategy for type 2 diabetes, decreasing the numbers of subsequent tests and thereby possibly minimizing the economical and personal costs of the screening strategy.

  7. Modified Framingham Risk Factor Score for Systemic Lupus Erythematosus. (United States)

    Urowitz, Murray B; Ibañez, Dominique; Su, Jiandong; Gladman, Dafna D


    The traditional Framingham Risk Factor Score (FRS) underestimates the risk for coronary artery disease (CAD) in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). We aimed to determine whether an adjustment to the FRS would more accurately reflect the higher prevalence of CAD among patients with SLE. Patients with SLE without a previous history of CAD or diabetes followed regularly at the University of Toronto Lupus Clinic were included. A modified FRS (mFRS) was calculated by multiplying the items by 1.5, 2, 3, or 4. In the first part of the study, using one-third of all eligible patients, we evaluated the sensitivity and specificity of the FRS and the different multipliers for the mFRS. In the second part of the study, using the remaining 2/3 of the eligible patients, we compared the predictive ability of the FRS to the mFRS. In the third part of the study, we assessed the prediction for CAD in a time-dependent analysis of the FRS and mFRS. There were 905 women (89.3%) with a total of 95 CAD events included. In part 1, we determined that a multiplier of 2 provided the best combination of sensitivity and specificity. In part 2, 2.4% of the patients were classified as moderate/high risk based on the classic FRS and 17.3% using the 2FRS (the FRS with a multiplier of 2). In part 3, a time-dependent covariate analysis for the prediction of the first CAD event revealed an HR of 3.22 (p = 0.07) for the classic FRS and 4.37 (p mFRS in which each item is multiplied by 2 more accurately predicts CAD in patients with SLE.

  8. Risk stratification in non-ST elevation acute coronary syndromes: Risk scores, biomarkers and clinical judgment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Corcoran


    Clinical guidelines recommend an early invasive strategy in higher risk NSTE-ACS. The Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE risk score is a validated risk stratification tool which has incremental prognostic value for risk stratification compared with clinical assessment or troponin testing alone. In emergency medicine, there has been a limited adoption of the GRACE score in some countries (e.g. United Kingdom, in part related to a delay in obtaining timely blood biochemistry results. Age makes an exponential contribution to the GRACE score, and on an individual patient basis, the risk of younger patients with a flow-limiting culprit coronary artery lesion may be underestimated. The future incorporation of novel cardiac biomarkers into this diagnostic pathway may allow for earlier treatment stratification. The cost-effectiveness of the new diagnostic pathways based on high-sensitivity troponin and copeptin must also be established. Finally, diagnostic tests and risk scores may optimize patient care but they cannot replace patient-focused good clinical judgment.

  9. Screening applicants for risk of poor academic performance: a novel scoring system using preadmission grade point averages and graduate record examination scores. (United States)

    Luce, David


    The purpose of this study was to develop an effective screening tool for identifying physician assistant (PA) program applicants at highest risk for poor academic performance. Prior to reviewing applications for the class of 2009, a retrospective analysis of preadmission data took place for the classes of 2006, 2007, and 2008. A single composite score was calculated for each student who matriculated (number of subjects, N=228) incorporating the total undergraduate grade point average (UGPA), the science GPA (SGPA), and the three component Graduate Record Examination (GRE) scores: verbal (GRE-V), quantitative (GRE-Q), analytical (GRE-A). Individual applicant scores for each of the five parameters were ranked in descending quintiles. Each applicant's five quintile scores were then added, yielding a total quintile score ranging from 25, which indicated an excellent performance, to 5, which indicated poorer performance. Thirteen of the 228 students had academic difficulty (dismissal, suspension, or one-quarter on academic warning or probation). Twelve of the 13 students having academic difficulty had a preadmission total quintile score 12 (range, 6-14). In response to this descriptive analysis, when selecting applicants for the class of 2009, the admissions committee used the total quintile score for screening applicants for interviews. Analysis of correlations in preadmission, graduate, and postgraduate performance data for the classes of 2009-2013 will continue and may help identify those applicants at risk for academic difficulty. Establishing a threshold total quintile score of applicant GPA and GRE scores may significantly decrease the number of entering PA students at risk for poor academic performance.

  10. A summary risk score for the prediction of Alzheimer disease in elderly persons. (United States)

    Reitz, Christiane; Tang, Ming-Xin; Schupf, Nicole; Manly, Jennifer J; Mayeux, Richard; Luchsinger, José A


    To develop a simple summary risk score for the prediction of Alzheimer disease in elderly persons based on their vascular risk profiles. A longitudinal, community-based study. New York, New York. Patients One thousand fifty-one Medicare recipients aged 65 years or older and residing in New York who were free of dementia or cognitive impairment at baseline. We separately explored the associations of several vascular risk factors with late-onset Alzheimer disease (LOAD) using Cox proportional hazards models to identify factors that would contribute to the risk score. Then we estimated the score values of each factor based on their beta coefficients and created the LOAD vascular risk score by summing these individual scores. Risk factors contributing to the risk score were age, sex, education, ethnicity, APOE epsilon4 genotype, history of diabetes, hypertension or smoking, high-density lipoprotein levels, and waist to hip ratio. The resulting risk score predicted dementia well. According to the vascular risk score quintiles, the risk to develop probable LOAD was 1.0 for persons with a score of 0 to 14 and increased 3.7-fold for persons with a score of 15 to 18, 3.6-fold for persons with a score of 19 to 22, 12.6-fold for persons with a score of 23 to 28, and 20.5-fold for persons with a score higher than 28. While additional studies in other populations are needed to validate and further develop the score, our study suggests that this vascular risk score could be a valuable tool to identify elderly individuals who might be at risk of LOAD. This risk score could be used to identify persons at risk of LOAD, but can also be used to adjust for confounders in epidemiologic studies.

  11. Increased physical activity decreases periodontitis risk in men

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Merchant, Anwar T.; Pitiphat, Waranuch; Rimm, Eric B.; Joshipura, Kaumudi


    Background: Increased physical activity improves insulin sensitivity and glucose metabolism, and may therefore affect incidence of periodontitis. Methods: We studied the association of physical activity, walking and periodontitis in 39,461 male, US based, health professionals, 40-75 years old at baseline, more than half of whom were dentists, being followed up continuously since 1986. Participants were free of periodontitis, coronary heart disease and stroke at the start of follow-up. Physical activity and periodontitis were measured by validated questionnaires (expressed in metabolic equivalents - METs); the first report of professionally diagnosed periodontitis was considered a case. Results: Periodontitis risk decreased by 3% for every 10-MET increase in average physical activity after adjustment for age, smoking, diabetes, BMI, alcohol consumption and total calories (RR = 0.97; 95% CI: 0.95-0.99). The inverse trend remained significant in the categorical analysis. Compared to men in the lowest quintile of physical activity, those in the highest quintile had a 13% lower risk of periodontitis (RR = 0.87; 95% CI: 0.76-1.01, p-value, test for trend = 0.02). In a sub-sample of men with radiographs (n = 137) the physically active had less average bone loss (β = -0.29, p-value = 0.03) after multivariate adjustment compared to those inactive. Conclusions: In this large-scale prospective study, we found an inverse, linear association between sustained physical activity and periodontitis independent of known risk factors. The benefits of a physically active lifestyle may extend to periodontal health

  12. Validity Assessment of Low-risk SCORE Function and SCORE Function Calibrated to the Spanish Population in the FRESCO Cohorts. (United States)

    Baena-Díez, José Miguel; Subirana, Isaac; Ramos, Rafael; Gómez de la Cámara, Agustín; Elosua, Roberto; Vila, Joan; Marín-Ibáñez, Alejandro; Guembe, María Jesús; Rigo, Fernando; Tormo-Díaz, María José; Moreno-Iribas, Conchi; Cabré, Joan Josep; Segura, Antonio; Lapetra, José; Quesada, Miquel; Medrano, María José; González-Diego, Paulino; Frontera, Guillem; Gavrila, Diana; Ardanaz, Eva; Basora, Josep; García, José María; García-Lareo, Manel; Gutiérrez-Fuentes, José Antonio; Mayoral, Eduardo; Sala, Joan; Dégano, Irene R; Francès, Albert; Castell, Conxa; Grau, María; Marrugat, Jaume


    To assess the validity of the original low-risk SCORE function without and with high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and SCORE calibrated to the Spanish population. Pooled analysis with individual data from 12 Spanish population-based cohort studies. We included 30 919 individuals aged 40 to 64 years with no history of cardiovascular disease at baseline, who were followed up for 10 years for the causes of death included in the SCORE project. The validity of the risk functions was analyzed with the area under the ROC curve (discrimination) and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test (calibration), respectively. Follow-up comprised 286 105 persons/y. Ten-year cardiovascular mortality was 0.6%. The ratio between estimated/observed cases ranged from 9.1, 6.5, and 9.1 in men and 3.3, 1.3, and 1.9 in women with original low-risk SCORE risk function without and with high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and calibrated SCORE, respectively; differences were statistically significant with the Hosmer-Lemeshow test between predicted and observed mortality with SCORE (P cardiovascular mortality observed in the Spanish population. Despite the acceptable discrimination capacity, prediction of the number of fatal cardiovascular events (calibration) was significantly inaccurate. Copyright © 2017 Sociedad Española de Cardiología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  13. The Surgical Site Infection Risk Score (SSIRS: A Model to Predict the Risk of Surgical Site Infections.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carl van Walraven

    Full Text Available Surgical site infections (SSI are an important cause of peri-surgical morbidity with risks that vary extensively between patients and surgeries. Quantifying SSI risk would help identify candidates most likely to benefit from interventions to decrease the risk of SSI.We randomly divided all surgeries recorded in the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program from 2010 into a derivation and validation population. We used multivariate logistic regression to determine the independent association of patient and surgical covariates with the risk of any SSI (including superficial, deep, and organ space SSI within 30 days of surgery. To capture factors particular to specific surgeries, we developed a surgical risk score specific to all surgeries having a common first 3 numbers of their CPT code.Derivation (n = 181 894 and validation (n = 181 146 patients were similar for all demographics, past medical history, and surgical factors. Overall SSI risk was 3.9%. The SSI Risk Score (SSIRS found that risk increased with patient factors (smoking, increased body mass index, certain comorbidities (peripheral vascular disease, metastatic cancer, chronic steroid use, recent sepsis, and operative characteristics (surgical urgency; increased ASA class; longer operation duration; infected wounds; general anaesthesia; performance of more than one procedure; and CPT score. In the validation population, the SSIRS had good discrimination (c-statistic 0.800, 95% CI 0.795-0.805 and calibration.SSIRS can be calculated using patient and surgery information to estimate individual risk of SSI for a broad range of surgery types.

  14. Chemoembolization Decreases Drop-Off Risk of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients on the Liver Transplant List

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frangakis, Constantine; Geschwind, Jean-Francois; Kim, Daniel; Chen, Yong; Koteish, Ayman; Hong, Kelvin; Liapi, Eleni; Georgiades, Christos S.


    Introduction: The drop-off risk for patients awaiting liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is 22%. Transplant liver availability is expected to worsen, resulting in longer waiting times and increased drop-off rates. Our aim was to determine whether chemoembolization can decrease this risk. Patients and Methods: Eighty-seven consecutive HCC patients listed for liver transplant (Milan criteria) underwent statistical comparability adjustments using the propensity score (Wilcoxon, Fisher’s, and chi-square tests). Forty-three nonchemoembolization patients and 22 chemoembolization patients were comparable for Child-Pugh and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease scores, tumor size and number, alpha fetoprotein (AFP) levels, and cause of cirrhosis. We calculated the risk of dropping off the transplant list by assigning a transplant time to those who dropped off (equal probability with patients who were on the list longer than the patient in question). The significance level was obtained by calculating the simulation distribution of the difference compared with the permutations of chemoembolization versus nonchemoembolization assignment of the patients. Kaplan–Meier estimators (log-rank test) were used to determine survival rates. Results: Median follow-up was 187 ± 110 weeks (range 38 to 435, date of diagnosis). The chemoembolization group had an 80% drop-off risk decrease (15% nonchemoembolization versus 3% chemoembolization, p = 0.04). Although survival was better for the chemoembolization group, it did not reach statistical significance. Two-year survival for the nonchemoembolization and chemoembolization group was 57.3% ± 7.1% and 76.0% ± 7.9%, respectively (p = 0.078). Conclusions: Chemoembolization appears to result in a significant decrease in the risk of dropping off liver transplant list for patients with HCC and results in a tendency toward longer survival.

  15. Risk of low Apgar score and socioeconomic position: a study of Swedish male births. (United States)

    Odd, David E; Doyle, Pat; Gunnell, David; Lewis, Glyn; Whitelaw, Andrew; Rasmussen, Finn


    The aim of this study was to investigate the association between maternal socioeconomic position and a persistent low Apgar score (a score of manual (Odds ratio (OR) 0.83 (0.72-0.97)) and self-employed (OR 0.64 (0.44-0.93)) occupations were less likely to have an infant with a low Apgar score, compared to manual workers. There was evidence that the risk of a low Apgar score decreased as the mother's level of education increased, if the infant was born by instrumental (OR 0.86 (0.74-0.99)) or caesarean section (OR 0.80 (0.68-0.93)) delivery, but not by unassisted vaginal delivery (OR 1.01 (0.92-1.10)). There was a lower risk of poor birth condition in male infants born to more educated and non-manual/self-employed mothers. These differences may contribute to our understanding of socioeconomic differences in infant health and development although the results may not be applicable due to changes over the last 30 years.

  16. The PER (Preoperative Esophagectomy Risk) Score: A Simple Risk Score to Predict Short-Term and Long-Term Outcome in Patients with Surgically Treated Esophageal Cancer. (United States)

    Reeh, Matthias; Metze, Johannes; Uzunoglu, Faik G; Nentwich, Michael; Ghadban, Tarik; Wellner, Ullrich; Bockhorn, Maximilian; Kluge, Stefan; Izbicki, Jakob R; Vashist, Yogesh K


    Esophageal resection in patients with esophageal cancer (EC) is still associated with high mortality and morbidity rates. We aimed to develop a simple preoperative risk score for the prediction of short-term and long-term outcomes for patients with EC treated by esophageal resection. In total, 498 patients suffering from esophageal carcinoma, who underwent esophageal resection, were included in this retrospective cohort study. Three preoperative esophagectomy risk (PER) groups were defined based on preoperative functional evaluation of different organ systems by validated tools (revised cardiac risk index, model for end-stage liver disease score, and pulmonary function test). Clinicopathological parameters, morbidity, and mortality as well as disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) were correlated to the PER score. The PER score significantly predicted the short-term outcome of patients with EC who underwent esophageal resection. PER 2 and PER 3 patients had at least double the risk of morbidity and mortality compared to PER 1 patients. Furthermore, a higher PER score was associated with shorter DFS (P PER score was identified as an independent predictor of tumor recurrence (hazard ratio [HR] 2.1; P PER score allows preoperative objective allocation of patients with EC into different risk categories for morbidity, mortality, and long-term outcomes. Thus, multicenter studies are needed for independent validation of the PER score.

  17. Pneumonia Risk Stratification Scores for Children in Low-Resource Settings: A Systematic Literature Review. (United States)

    Deardorff, Katrina V; McCollum, Eric D; Ginsburg, Amy Sarah


    Pneumonia is the leading infectious cause of death among children less than five years of age. Predictive tools, commonly referred to as risk scores, can be employed to identify high-risk children early for targeted management to prevent adverse outcomes. This systematic review was conducted to identify pediatric pneumonia risk scores developed, validated, and implemented in low-resource settings. We searched CAB Direct, Cochrane Reviews, Embase, PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science for studies that developed formal risk scores to predict treatment failure or mortality among children less than five years of age diagnosed with a respiratory infection or pneumonia in low-resource settings. Data abstracted from articles included location and study design, sample size, age, diagnosis, score features and model discrimination. Three pediatric pneumonia risk scores predicted mortality specifically, and two treatment failure. Scores developed using World Health Organization recommended variables for pneumonia assessment demonstrated better predictive fit than scores developed using alternative features. Scores developed using routinely collected healthcare data performed similarly well as those developed using clinical trial data. No score has been implemented in low-resource settings. While pediatric pneumonia-specific risk scores have been developed and validated, it is yet unclear if implementation is feasible, what impact, if any, implemented scores may have on child outcomes, or how broadly scores may be generalized. To increase the feasibility of implementation, future research should focus on developing scores based on routinely collected data.

  18. Screening for Behavioral Risk: Identification of High Risk Cut Scores within the Social, Academic, and Emotional Behavior Risk Screener (SAEBRS) (United States)

    Kilgus, Stephen P.; Taylor, Crystal N.; von der Embse, Nathaniel P.


    The purpose of this study was to support the identification of Social, Academic, and Emotional Behavior Risk Screener (SAEBRS) cut scores that could be used to detect high-risk students. Teachers rated students across two time points (Time 1 n = 1,242 students; Time 2 n = 704) using the SAEBRS and the Behavioral and Emotional Screening System…

  19. Recalibration of the ACC/AHA Risk Score in Two Population-Based German Cohorts. (United States)

    de Las Heras Gala, Tonia; Geisel, Marie Henrike; Peters, Annette; Thorand, Barbara; Baumert, Jens; Lehmann, Nils; Jöckel, Karl-Heinz; Moebus, Susanne; Erbel, Raimund; Meisinger, Christine; Mahabadi, Amir Abbas; Koenig, Wolfgang


    The 2013 ACC/AHA guidelines introduced an algorithm for risk assessment of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) within 10 years. In Germany, risk assessment with the ESC SCORE is limited to cardiovascular mortality. Applicability of the novel ACC/AHA risk score to the German population has not yet been assessed. We therefore sought to recalibrate and evaluate the ACC/AHA risk score in two German cohorts and to compare it to the ESC SCORE. We studied 5,238 participants from the KORA surveys S3 (1994-1995) and S4 (1999-2001) and 4,208 subjects from the Heinz Nixdorf Recall (HNR) Study (2000-2003). There were 383 (7.3%) and 271 (6.4%) first non-fatal or fatal ASCVD events within 10 years in KORA and in HNR, respectively. Risk scores were evaluated in terms of calibration and discrimination performance. The original ACC/AHA risk score overestimated 10-year ASCVD rates by 37% in KORA and 66% in HNR. After recalibration, miscalibration diminished to 8% underestimation in KORA and 12% overestimation in HNR. Discrimination performance of the ACC/AHA risk score was not affected by the recalibration (KORA: C = 0.78, HNR: C = 0.74). The ESC SCORE overestimated by 5% in KORA and by 85% in HNR. The corresponding C-statistic was 0.82 in KORA and 0.76 in HNR. The recalibrated ACC/AHA risk score showed strongly improved calibration compared to the original ACC/AHA risk score. Predicting only cardiovascular mortality, discrimination performance of the commonly used ESC SCORE remained somewhat superior to the ACC/AHA risk score. Nevertheless, the recalibrated ACC/AHA risk score may provide a meaningful tool for estimating 10-year risk of fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease in Germany.

  20. Adding an alcohol-related risk score to an existing categorical risk classification for older adults: sensitivity to group differences. (United States)

    Wilson, Sandra R; Fink, Arlene; Verghese, Shinu; Beck, John C; Nguyen, Khue; Lavori, Philip


    To evaluate a new alcohol-related risk score for research use. Using data from a previously reported trial of a screening and education system for older adults (Computerized Alcohol-Related Problems Survey), secondary analyses were conducted comparing the ability of two different measures of risk to detect post-intervention group differences: the original categorical outcome measure and a new, finely grained quantitative risk score based on the same research-based risk factors. Three primary care group practices in southern California. Six hundred sixty-five patients aged 65 and older. A previously calculated, three-level categorical classification of alcohol-related risk and a newly developed quantitative risk score. Mean post-intervention risk scores differed between the three experimental conditions: usual care, patient report, and combined report (Ptrinary risk classification. The additional clinical value of the risk score relative to the categorical measure needs to be determined.

  1. Risk scores for diabetes and impaired glycaemia in the Middle East and North Africa

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Handlos, Line Neerup; Witte, Daniel Rinse; Almdal, Thomas Peter


    AIMS: To develop risk scores for diabetes and diabetes or impaired glycaemia for individuals living in the Middle East and North Africa region. In addition, to derive national risk scores for Algeria, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates and to compare the performance of the regional risk...

  2. Risk stratification with the risk chart from the European Society of Hypertension compared with SCORE in the general population

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sehestedt, Thomas; Jeppesen, Jørgen; Hansen, Tine W


    to higher-risk categories than SCORE (P smokers. However, ESH risk chart agreed with ESC guidelines for antihypertensive treatment using SCORE in 89% (634/713) of the patients recommended treatment and produced...... similar sensitivities (79 vs. 79%), specificities (46 vs. 50%), positive (14 vs. 15%) and negative (95 vs. 96%) predictive values for CEP. CONCLUSION: Although SCORE did not use subclinical organ damage, the guidelines by ESH and ESC using SCORE recommended antihypertensive treatment in almost the same...

  3. Development and validation of a risk score to predict the probability of postoperative vomiting in pediatric patients: the VPOP score. (United States)

    Bourdaud, Nathalie; Devys, Jean-Michel; Bientz, Jocelyne; Lejus, Corinne; Hebrard, Anne; Tirel, Olivier; Lecoutre, Damien; Sabourdin, Nada; Nivoche, Yves; Baujard, Catherine; Nikasinovic, Lydia; Orliaguet, Gilles A


    Few data are available in the literature on risk factors for postoperative vomiting (POV) in children. The aim of the study was to establish independent risk factors for POV and to construct a pediatric specific risk score to predict POV in children. Characteristics of 2392 children operated under general anesthesia were recorded. The dataset was randomly split into an evaluation set (n = 1761), analyzed with a multivariate analysis including logistic regression and backward stepwise procedure, and a validation set (n = 450), used to confirm the accuracy of prediction using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROCAUC ), to optimize sensitivity and specificity. The overall incidence of POV was 24.1%. Five independent risk factors were identified: stratified age (>3 and 13 years: adjusted OR 2.46 [95% CI 1.75-3.45]; ≥6 and ≤13 years: aOR 3.09 [95% CI 2.23-4.29]), duration of anesthesia (aOR 1.44 [95% IC 1.06-1.96]), surgery at risk (aOR 2.13 [95% IC 1.49-3.06]), predisposition to POV (aOR 1.81 [95% CI 1.43-2.31]), and multiple opioids doses (aOR 2.76 [95% CI 2.06-3.70], P risk score ranged from 0 to 6. The model yielded a ROCAUC of 0.73 [95% CI 0.67-0.78] when applied to the validation dataset. Independent risk factors for POV were identified and used to create a new score to predict which children are at high risk of POV. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  4. Adherence to the DASH and Mediterranean diets is associated with decreased risk for gestational diabetes mellitus. (United States)

    Izadi, Vajihe; Tehrani, Hatav; Haghighatdoost, Fahimeh; Dehghan, Atefeh; Surkan, Pamela J; Azadbakht, Leila


    Few studies have examined the association between adherence to the Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH) or Mediterranean (MED) diets and prevalence of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM). The aim of the present study was to evaluate the association between the two diets and GDM. In a case-control hospital-based study, pregnant women with (n = 200) and without (n = 260) GMD were recruited. An average of three 24-h dietary records were used to assess participants' dietary intakes. DASH scores were calculated based on the Fung method and MED scores were calculated using the Trichopoulou method. GDM was defined as fasting glucose >95 mg/dL or 1-h postprandial glucose >140 mg/dL for the first time in the pregnancy. The risk for GDM was assessed across tertiles of DASH and MED scores. DASH and MED diets were negatively related to fasting blood glucose, hemoglobin A1c, and serum triacylglycerol concentrations. High-density lipoprotein cholesterol was significantly higher for those in the top tertile of the DASH diet but not the MED diet in comparison with the lowest tertile. Total serum cholesterol level was lower in the third tertile of the MED diet but not in the DASH diet. Participants in the highest tertile of the MED diet had 80% lower risk for GDM compared with those in the lowest tertile (Ptrend = 0.006). Greater adherence to the DASH eating plan was associated with 71% reduced risk for GDM (Ptrend = 0.006) after adjustment for potential confounders. Adherence to either the DASH or Mediterranean diet is associated with decreased risk for GDM. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Risk based maintenance to increase safety and decrease costs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Phillips, J.H.


    Risk-Based techniques have been developed for commercial nuclear power plants for the last eight years by a team working through the ASME Center for Research and Technology Development (CRTD). System boundaries and success criteria is defined using the Probabilistic Risk Analysis or Probabilistic Safety Analysis developed to meet the Individual Plant Evaluation. Final ranking of components is by a plant expert panel similar to the one developed for the Maintenance Rule. Components are identified as being high risk-significant or low risk-significant. Maintenance and resources are focused on those components that have the highest risk-significance. The techniques have been developed and applied at a number of plants. Results from the first risk-based inspection pilot plant indicates safety due to pipe failure can be doubled while the inspection reduced to about 80% when compared with current inspection programs. Pilot studies on risk-based testing indicate that about 60% of pumps and 25 to 30% of valves in plants are high safety-significant The reduction in inspection and testing reduces the person-rem exposure and resulting in further increases in safety. These techniques have been documented in publications by the ASME CRTD which are referenced. (author)

  6. prevention decreased sexual risk behaviour after the diagnosis of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)


    Dec 1, 2006 ... After ethics approval was sought from the Human Research and Ethics Committee of ... It is essential to assess the effects on sexual risk behaviour. Design and setting. .... infectious, which is the correct scientific response. One.

  7. Decreased risk of prematurity after elective repeat cesarean delivery in Hispanics. (United States)

    Vilchez, Gustavo; Chelliah, Anushka; Bratley, Elaine; Bahado-Singh, Ray; Sokol, Robert


    The current recommendation is to delay elective repeat cesarean deliveries (ERCD) until 39 weeks to decrease prematurity risks. Prior reports suggest accelerated maturity of fetuses according to race (African-Americans and Asians). To analyze the effect of the Hispanic ethnicity on the prematurity risk after ERCD. The US Natality Database from 2004 to 2008 was reviewed. Inclusion criteria were singleton delivery, no trial of labor, repeat cesarean. Exclusion criteria were fetal anomalies, history of diabetes/hypertension related disorders. Outcomes analyzed were Apgar score, assisted ventilation, intensive care admission, surfactant/antibiotic use and seizures. Two groups were identified: non-Hispanic Whites (NHW) and Hispanic Whites (HW). Regression analysis was performed to calculate adjusted odds ratios. Deliveries at 36-40 weeks were studied with 40 weeks as the reference group. A total of 930421 ERCDs were identified, 396823 NHW and 236733 HW. For NHW, the risk of prematurity was lower at 39 weeks. For HW, there was no difference in the risks of prematurity at/beyond 38 weeks. There appears to be accelerated maturity with no increase in prematurity risk at 38 weeks in HW delivered by ERCD. Ethnicity can be considered for patient counseling and decision making regarding optimal timing of elective interventions.

  8. Multiple sclerosis decreases explicit counterfactual processing and risk taking in decision making. (United States)

    Simioni, Samanta; Schluep, Myriam; Bault, Nadège; Coricelli, Giorgio; Kleeberg, Joerg; Du Pasquier, Renaud A; Gschwind, Markus; Vuilleumier, Patrik; Annoni, Jean-Marie


    Deficits in decision making (DM) are commonly associated with prefrontal cortical damage, but may occur with multiple sclerosis (MS). There are no data concerning the impact of MS on tasks evaluating DM under explicit risk, where different emotional and cognitive components can be distinguished. We assessed 72 relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS) patients with mild to moderate disease and 38 healthy controls in two DM tasks involving risk with explicit rules: (1) The Wheel of Fortune (WOF), which probes the anticipated affects of decisions outcomes on future choices; and (2) The Cambridge Gamble Task (CGT) which measures risk taking. Participants also underwent a neuropsychological and emotional assessment, and skin conductance responses (SCRs) were recorded. In the WOF, RRMS patients showed deficits in integrating positive counterfactual information (paffect than controls (disappointment: p = 0.007; regret: p = 0.01), although their implicit emotional reactions as measured by post-choice SCRs did not differ. In the CGT, RRMS patients differed from controls in quality of DM (p = 0.01) and deliberation time (p = 0.0002), the latter difference being correlated with attention scores. Such changes did not result in overall decreases in performance (total gains). The quality of DM under risk was modified by MS in both tasks. The reduction in the expression of disappointment coexisted with an increased risk aversion in the WOF and alexithymia features. These concomitant emotional alterations may have implications for better understanding the components of explicit DM and for the clinical support of MS patients.

  9. A risk score to predict type 2 diabetes mellitus in an elderly Spanish Mediterranean population at high cardiovascular risk.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marta Guasch-Ferré

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: To develop and test a diabetes risk score to predict incident diabetes in an elderly Spanish Mediterranean population at high cardiovascular risk. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A diabetes risk score was derived from a subset of 1381 nondiabetic individuals from three centres of the PREDIMED study (derivation sample. Multivariate Cox regression model ß-coefficients were used to weigh each risk factor. PREDIMED-personal Score included body-mass-index, smoking status, family history of type 2 diabetes, alcohol consumption and hypertension as categorical variables; PREDIMED-clinical Score included also high blood glucose. We tested the predictive capability of these scores in the DE-PLAN-CAT cohort (validation sample. The discrimination of Finnish Diabetes Risk Score (FINDRISC, German Diabetes Risk Score (GDRS and our scores was assessed with the area under curve (AUC. RESULTS: The PREDIMED-clinical Score varied from 0 to 14 points. In the subset of the PREDIMED study, 155 individuals developed diabetes during the 4.75-years follow-up. The PREDIMED-clinical score at a cutoff of ≥6 had sensitivity of 72.2%, and specificity of 72.5%, whereas AUC was 0.78. The AUC of the PREDIMED-clinical Score was 0.66 in the validation sample (sensitivity = 85.4%; specificity = 26.6%, and was significantly higher than the FINDRISC and the GDRS in both the derivation and validation samples. DISCUSSION: We identified classical risk factors for diabetes and developed the PREDIMED-clinical Score to determine those individuals at high risk of developing diabetes in elderly individuals at high cardiovascular risk. The predictive capability of the PREDIMED-clinical Score was significantly higher than the FINDRISC and GDRS, and also used fewer items in the questionnaire.

  10. Chemotherapy decreases epiphyseal strength and increases bone fracture risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Leeuwen, BL; Verkerke, GJ; Hartel, RM; Sluiter, WJ; Kamps, WA; Jansen, HWB; Hoekstra, HJ

    To establish the effect of three frequently used chemotherapeutic agents in childhood cancer on the skeleton, growing male Wistar rats were studied. Treatment with doxorubicin, methotrexate, and cisplatin reduces the proximal tibial growth plate shear strength because of a decreased surface area and

  11. The value of the CHA2DS2-VASc score for refining stroke risk stratification in patients with atrial fibrillation with a CHADS2 score 0-1

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olesen, Jonas Bjerring; Torp-Pedersen, Christian; Hansen, Morten Lock


    associated with increasing CHA2DS2-VASc score was estimated in Cox regression models adjusted for year of inclusion and antiplatelet therapy. The value of adding the extra CHA2DS2-VASc risk factors to the CHADS2 score was evaluated by c-statistics, Net Reclassification Improvement (NRI) and Integrated......DS2-VASc score significantly improved the predictive value of the CHADS2 score alone and a CHA2DS2-VASc score=0 could clearly identify 'truly low risk' subjects. Use of the CHA2DS2-VASc score would significantly improve classification of AF patients at low and intermediate risk of stroke, compared......North American and European guidelines on atrial fibrillation (AF) are conflicting regarding the classification of patients at low/intermediate risk of stroke. We aimed to investigate if the CHA2DS2-VASc score improved risk stratification of AF patients with a CHADS2 score of 0-1. Using individual...

  12. Fracture risk is decreased in women with polycystic ovary syndrome

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rubin, Katrine Hass; Glintborg, Dorte; Nybo, Mads


    Hyperandrogenism, obesity, and hyperinsulinemia may protect against osteoporosis, whereas amenorrhea, increased cortisol, and low growth hormone may be associated with higher fracture risk in polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS). OBJECTIVE: To investigate fracture risk in PCOS. MATERIAL/METHODS: PCOS...... be greater in women who have not yet reached peak bone mass. Reduced participation in sports activities was probably not the reason for the reduced risk of fractures. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved....... Denmark: Women with PCOS and/or hirsutism were identified in the Danish National Patient Register (1995-2012). Each patient was assigned three age-matched controls on the index date of PCOS diagnosis. Individuals with a previous endocrine diagnosis were excluded. Within PCOS Denmark, we embedded a well......-characterized subcohort of patients, PCOS OUH, diagnosed with PCOS at Odense University Hospital (n = 1,217). We identified incident fractures by ICD-10 codes and used conditional Cox regression analysis to compare fracture risk. RESULTS: PCOS Denmark: 19,199 women with PCOS and 57,483 controls were included, mean age 30...

  13. HIV tropism and decreased risk of breast cancer.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nancy A Hessol


    Full Text Available During the first two decades of the U.S. AIDS epidemic, and unlike some malignancies, breast cancer risk was significantly lower for women with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV infection compared to the general population. This deficit in HIV-associated breast cancer could not be attributed to differences in survival, immune deficiency, childbearing or other breast cancer risk factors. HIV infects mononuclear immune cells by binding to the CD4 molecule and to CCR5 or CXCR4 chemokine coreceptors. Neoplastic breast cells commonly express CXCR4 but not CCR5. In vitro, binding HIV envelope protein to CXCR4 has been shown to induce apoptosis of neoplastic breast cells. Based on these observations, we hypothesized that breast cancer risk would be lower among women with CXCR4-tropic HIV infection.We conducted a breast cancer nested case-control study among women who participated in the WIHS and HERS HIV cohort studies with longitudinally collected risk factor data and plasma. Cases were HIV-infected women (mean age 46 years who had stored plasma collected within 24 months of breast cancer diagnosis and an HIV viral load≥500 copies/mL. Three HIV-infected control women, without breast cancer, were matched to each case based on age and plasma collection date. CXCR4-tropism was determined by a phenotypic tropism assay. Odds ratios (OR and 95% confidence intervals (CI for breast cancer were estimated by exact conditional logistic regression. Two (9% of 23 breast cancer cases had CXCR4-tropic HIV, compared to 19 (28% of 69 matched controls. Breast cancer risk was significantly and independently reduced with CXCR4 tropism (adjusted odds ratio, 0.10, 95% CI 0.002-0.84 and with menopause (adjusted odds ratio, 0.08, 95% CI 0.001-0.83. Adjustment for CD4+ cell count, HIV viral load, and use of antiretroviral therapy did not attenuate the association between infection with CXCR4-tropic HIV and breast cancer.Low breast cancer risk with HIV is specifically linked

  14. Longtime napping is associated with cardiovascular risk estimation according to Framingham risk score in postmenopausal women. (United States)

    Li, Feng; Sun, Kan; Lin, Diaozhu; Qi, Yiqin; Li, Yan; Yan, Li; Ren, Meng


    Menopause can affect the physiological timing system, which could result in circadian rhythm changes and development of napping habits. Whether longtime napping in postmenopausal women is associated with cardiovascular disease is, however, still debated. The present study aims to investigate this association. We conducted a population-based study in 4,616 postmenopausal Chinese women. Information on sleep duration was self-reported. The Framingham General Cardiovascular Risk Score was calculated and used to identify participants at high risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). Increased daytime napping hours were positively associated with cardiovascular disease risk factors in postmenopausal women, such as age, waist circumference, systolic blood pressure, triglycerides, fasting glucose, postload glucose, and hemoglobin A1C (all P for trend napping hours, and was 3.7%, 4.3%, and 6.9% in the no daytime napping group, the 0.1 to 1 hour group, and the more than 1 hour group, respectively (P for trend = 0.005). Compared with the no daytime napping group, postmenopausal women with daytime napping more than 1 hour had higher risk of CHD in both univariate (odds ratio 1.94, 95% CI, 1.29-2.95) and multivariate (odds ratio 1.61, 95% CI, 1.03-2.52) logistic regression analyses. No statistically significant association was detected between night sleeping hours and high risk of CHD in postmenopausal participants. Daytime napping is positively associated with estimated 10-year CHD risk in postmenopausal Chinese women.

  15. Feasibility and reliability of a newly developed antenatal risk score card in routine care

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    E. Birnie; E.A.P. Steegers; Drs. H.W. Torij; M.J. Veen; J. Poeran; G.J. Bonsel


    A population-based cross-sectional study (feasibility) and a cohort study (inter-rater reliability) to study in routine care the feasibility and inter-rater reliability of the Rotterdam Reproductive Risk Reduction risk score card (R4U), a new semi-quantitative score card for use during the antenatal

  16. [Risk scores for community acquired pneumonia in elderly and geriatric patients]. (United States)

    Pflug, M A; Wesemann, T; Heppner, H J; Thiem, U


    Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is still an important and serious disease for elderly and geriatric patients. For epidemiological and clinical reasons it is important to collate the frequencies of the various degrees of severity of CAP and to obtain information on the spread and degree of the threat to the various risk groups by CAP. In outpatient treatment a simple to execute prognosis score can be used to objectify the assessment of the clinical status of a patient and to support therapeutic decision-making. For this purpose knowledge of the appropriate instruments should be available to potential users. Since the 1990s a variety of risk scores for stratification of CAP have been developed and evaluated. This article presents the content and value of the available risk scores whereby the advantages and disadvantages of the individual scores are critically compared. Special emphasis is placed on the importance of the risk scores for geriatric patients. At present the decision about outpatient or inpatient treatment is primarily based on the risk score CRB-65. Criteria for intensive care unit admissions are provided by the modified American Thoracic Society (ATS) set of criteria. Overall, risk scores are less reliable for elderly patients than for younger adults. For treatment decisions for the elderly, functional aspects should also be considered in addition to the aspects of risk scores discussed here. In particular, the decision about inpatient admission for elderly, geriatric CAP patients should be made on an individual basis taking the benefit-risk relationship into consideration.

  17. Recurrence risk of low Apgar score among term singletons: a population-based cohort study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ensing, Sabine; Schaaf, Jelle M.; Abu-Hanna, Ameen; Mol, Ben W. J.; Ravelli, Anita C. J.


    To examine the risk of recurrence of low Apgar score in a subsequent term singleton pregnancy. Population-based cohort study. The Netherlands. A total of 190,725 women with two subsequent singleton term live births between 1999 and 2007. We calculated the recurrence risk of low Apgar score after

  18. A risk score for predicting mortality in patients with asymptomatic mild to moderate aortic stenosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holme, Ingar; Pedersen, Terje R; Boman, Kurt


    BackgroundPrognostic information for asymptomatic patients with aortic stenosis (AS) from prospective studies is scarce and there is no risk score available to assess mortality.ObjectivesTo develop an easily calculable score, from which clinicians could stratify patients into high and lower risk...

  19. Validation of the Rockall risk scoring system in upper gastrointestinal bleeding

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vreeburg, E. M.; Terwee, C. B.; Snel, P.; Rauws, E. A.; Bartelsman, J. F.; Meulen, J. H.; Tytgat, G. N.


    Several scoring systems have been developed to predict the risk of rebleeding or death in patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB). These risk scoring systems have not been validated in a new patient population outside the clinical context of the original study. To assess internal and

  20. Polygenic risk scores for smoking: predictors for alcohol and cannabis use?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vink, J.M.; de Geus, E.J.C.; Willemsen, G.; Neale, M.C.; Furberg, H.; Boomsma, D.I.


    Background and Aims: A strong correlation exists between smoking and the use of alcohol and cannabis. This paper uses polygenic risk scores to explore the possibility of overlapping genetic factors. Those scores reflect a combined effect of selected risk alleles for smoking. Methods: Summary-level

  1. A Clinical Risk Score for Atrial Fibrillation in a Biracial Prospective Cohort (From the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study)


    Chamberlain, Alanna M.; Agarwal, Sunil K.; Folsom, Aaron R.; Soliman, Elsayed Z.; Chambless, Lloyd E.; Crow, Richard; Ambrose, Marietta; Alonso, Alvaro


    A risk score for AF has been developed by the Framingham Heart Study; however the applicability of this risk score, derived from whites, to predict new-onset AF in non-whites is uncertain. Therefore, we developed a 10-year risk score for new-onset AF using risk factors commonly measured in clinical practice using 14,546 individuals from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study, a prospective community-based cohort of blacks and whites in the United States. During 10 years of follow-up, 5...

  2. The "polyenviromic risk score": Aggregating environmental risk factors predicts conversion to psychosis in familial high-risk subjects. (United States)

    Padmanabhan, Jaya L; Shah, Jai L; Tandon, Neeraj; Keshavan, Matcheri S


    Young relatives of individuals with schizophrenia (i.e. youth at familial high-risk, FHR) are at increased risk of developing psychotic disorders, and show higher rates of psychiatric symptoms, cognitive and neurobiological abnormalities than non-relatives. It is not known whether overall exposure to environmental risk factors increases risk of conversion to psychosis in FHR subjects. Subjects consisted of a pilot longitudinal sample of 83 young FHR subjects. As a proof of principle, we examined whether an aggregate score of exposure to environmental risk factors, which we term a 'polyenviromic risk score' (PERS), could predict conversion to psychosis. The PERS combines known environmental risk factors including cannabis use, urbanicity, season of birth, paternal age, obstetric and perinatal complications, and various types of childhood adversity, each weighted by its odds ratio for association with psychosis in the literature. A higher PERS was significantly associated with conversion to psychosis in young, familial high-risk subjects (OR=1.97, p=0.009). A model combining the PERS and clinical predictors had a sensitivity of 27% and specificity of 96%. An aggregate index of environmental risk may help predict conversion to psychosis in FHR subjects. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Prostate cancer staging with extracapsular extension risk scoring using multiparametric MRI

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boesen, Lars; Chabanova, Elizaveta; Løgager, Vibeke


    OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the diagnostic performance of preoperative multiparametric MRI with extracapsular extension (ECE) risk-scoring in the assessment of prostate cancer tumour stage (T-stage) and prediction of ECE at final pathology. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Eighty-seven patients with clinically....../87 (36 %) patients. ECE risk-scoring showed an AUC of 0.65-0.86 on ROC-curve for both readers, with sensitivity and specificity of 81 % and 78 % at best cutoff level (reader A), respectively. When tumour characteristics were influenced by personal opinion, the sensitivity and specificity for prediction...... technique for preoperative prostate cancer staging • ECE risk scoring predicts extracapsular tumour extension at final pathology • ECE risk scoring shows an AUC of 0.86 on the ROC-curve • ECE risk scoring shows a moderate inter-reader agreement (K = 0.45) • Multiparametric MRI provides essential knowledge...

  4. A genetic risk score combining ten psoriasis risk loci improves disease prediction.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haoyan Chen


    Full Text Available Psoriasis is a chronic, immune-mediated skin disease affecting 2-3% of Caucasians. Recent genetic association studies have identified multiple psoriasis risk loci; however, most of these loci contribute only modestly to disease risk. In this study, we investigated whether a genetic risk score (GRS combining multiple loci could improve psoriasis prediction. Two approaches were used: a simple risk alleles count (cGRS and a weighted (wGRS approach. Ten psoriasis risk SNPs were genotyped in 2815 case-control samples and 858 family samples. We found that the total number of risk alleles in the cases was significantly higher than in controls, mean 13.16 (SD 1.7 versus 12.09 (SD 1.8, p = 4.577×10(-40. The wGRS captured considerably more risk than any SNP considered alone, with a psoriasis OR for high-low wGRS quartiles of 10.55 (95% CI 7.63-14.57, p = 2.010×10(-65. To compare the discriminatory ability of the GRS models, receiver operating characteristic curves were used to calculate the area under the curve (AUC. The AUC for wGRS was significantly greater than for cGRS (72.0% versus 66.5%, p = 2.13×10(-8. Additionally, the AUC for HLA-C alone (rs10484554 was equivalent to the AUC for all nine other risk loci combined (66.2% versus 63.8%, p = 0.18, highlighting the dominance of HLA-C as a risk locus. Logistic regression revealed that the wGRS was significantly associated with two subphenotypes of psoriasis, age of onset (p = 4.91×10(-6 and family history (p = 0.020. Using a liability threshold model, we estimated that the 10 risk loci account for only 11.6% of the genetic variance in psoriasis. In summary, we found that a GRS combining 10 psoriasis risk loci captured significantly more risk than any individual SNP and was associated with early onset of disease and a positive family history. Notably, only a small fraction of psoriasis heritability is captured by the common risk variants identified to date.

  5. A risk prediction score for invasive mold disease in patients with hematological malignancies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marta Stanzani

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: A risk score for invasive mold disease (IMD in patients with hematological malignancies could facilitate patient screening and improve the targeted use of antifungal prophylaxis. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed 1,709 hospital admissions of 840 patients with hematological malignancies (2005-2008 to collect data on 17 epidemiological and treatment-related risk factors for IMD. Multivariate regression was used to develop a weighted risk score based on independent risk factors associated with proven or probable IMD, which was prospectively validated during 1,746 hospital admissions of 855 patients from 2009-2012. RESULTS: Of the 17 candidate variables analyzed, 11 correlated with IMD by univariate analysis, but only 4 risk factors (neutropenia, lymphocytopenia or lymphocyte dysfunction in allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplant recipients, malignancy status, and prior IMD were retained in the final multivariate model, resulting in a weighted risk score 0-13. A risk score of 5% of IMD, with a negative predictive value (NPV of 0.99, (95% CI 0.98-0.99. During 2009-2012, patients with a calculated risk score at admission of 6 (0.9% vs. 10.6%, P <0.001. CONCLUSION: An objective, weighted risk score for IMD can accurately discriminate patients with hematological malignancies at low risk for developing mold disease, and could possibly facilitate "screening-out" of low risk patients less likely to benefit from intensive diagnostic monitoring or mold-directed antifungal prophylaxis.

  6. Anodal Stimulation of the Left DLPFC Increases IGT Scores and Decreases Delay Discounting Rate in Healthy Males

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qinghua He


    Full Text Available Previous correlational imaging studies have implicated the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC in decision making. Using High-Definition Transcranial Direct Current Stimulation (HD-tDCS, the present study directly investigated the causal role of the DLPFC in performing the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT and the Inter-Temporal Choice (ITC task. Three experiments were conducted: Exp. 1 (N = 41 to study the left DLPFC, Exp. 2 (N = 49 to study the right DLPFC, and Exp. 3 (N = 20, a subset of those in Exp. 1 to switch the experimental and control conditions. All participants were healthy male college students. For Exps. 1 and 2, participants were randomly assigned to either the HD- tDCS or the sham stimulation condition. For Exp. 3, participants were assigned to the condition they were not in during Exp. 1. Results showed that HD-tDCS over the left DLPFC increased IGT score, decreased the recency parameter in IGT, and lowered delay discounting rate (k in the ITC task. We discussed the potential roles of impulse control and time perception in mediating the effect of tDCS stimulation of left DLPFC on decision making. Our results have clinical implications for the treatment of disorders involving poor decision-making, such as addictions.

  7. Bank Lending Policy, Credit Scoring and Value at Risk


    Jacobson, Tor; Roszbach, Kasper


    In this paper we apply a bivariate probit model to investigate the implications of bank lending policy. In the first equation we model the bank´s decision to grant a loan, in the second the probability of default. We confirm that banks provide loans in a way that is not consistent with default risk minimization. The lending policy must thus either be inefficient or be the result of some other type of optimizing behavior than expected profit maximization. Value at Risk, being a value weighted ...

  8. Risk factors for decreased range of motion and poor outcomes in open periarticular elbow fractures. (United States)

    Dickens, Jonathan F; Wilson, Kevin W; Tintle, Scott M; Heckert, Reed; Gordon, Wade T; D'Alleyrand, Jean-Claude G; Potter, Benjamin K


    The purpose of this study was to identify risk factors present at the time of injury that predict poor functional outcomes and heterotopic ossification (HO) in open periarticular elbow fractures. We performed a retrospective review of 136 combat-related open elbow fractures from 2003 to 2010. Patient demographics, injury characteristics, treatment variables, and complications were recorded. Functional outcomes were analyzed to determine range of motion (ROM) and Mayo Elbow Performance Score (MEPS). Secondary outcome measures included the development of HO, return to duty, and revision operation. At a median 2.7 years from injury the median MEPS was 67.8 (range 30-100) with an average ulnohumeral arc motion of 89°. Bipolar fractures, with periarticular fractures on both sides of the elbow and at least one side containing intra-articular extension, were independently associated with decreased ulnohumeral motion (p=0.02) and decreased MEPS (pROM included more severe osseous comminution (p=0.001), and increased time to definitive fixation (p=0.03) and HO (p=0.02). More severe soft tissue injury (Gustilo and Anderson fracture type, p=0.02), peripheral nerve injury (p=0.04), and HO (p=0.03) were independently associated with decreased MEPS. HO developed in 65% (89/136) of extremities and was associated with more severe Orthopaedic Trauma Association (OTA) fracture type (p=0.01) and escalating Gustilo and Anderson fracture classification (p=0.049). In the largest series of open elbow fractures, we identified risk factors that portend a poor clinical outcome and decreased ROM. Bipolar elbow fractures, which have not previously been associated with worse results, are particularly prone to decreased ROM and worse outcomes. Prognostic level IV. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  9. Antithrombotic drugs and non-variceal bleeding outcomes and risk scoring systems: comparison of Glasgow Blatchford, Rockall and Charlson scores (United States)

    Taha, Ali S; McCloskey, Caroline; Craigen, Theresa; Angerson, Wilson J


    Objectives Antithrombotic drugs (ATDs) cause non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (NVUGIB). Risk scoring systems have not been validated in ATD users. We compared Blatchford, Rockall and Charlson scores in predicting outcomes of NVUGIB in ATD users and controls. Methods A total of 2071 patients with NVUGIB were grouped into ATD users (n=851) and controls (n=1220) in a single-centre retrospective analysis. Outcomes included duration of hospital admission, the need for blood transfusion, rebleeding requiring surgery and 30-day mortality. Results Duration of admission correlated with all scores in controls, but correlations were significantly weaker in ATD users. Rank correlation coefficients in control versus ATD: 0.45 vs 0.20 for Blatchford; 0.48 vs 0.32 for Rockall and 0.42 vs 0.26 for Charlson (all p<0.001). The need for transfusion was best predicted by Blatchford (p<0.001 vs Rockall and Charlson in both ATD users and controls), but all scores performed less well in ATD users. Area under the receiver operation characteristic curve (AUC) in control versus ATD: 0.90 vs 0.85 for Blatchford; 0.77 vs 0.61 for Rockall and 0.69 vs 0.56 for Charlson (all p<0.005). In predicting surgery, Rockall performed best; while mortality was best predicted by Charlson with lower AUCs in ATD patients than controls (p<0.05). Stratification showed the scores' performance to be age-dependent. Conclusions Blatchford score was the strongest predictor of transfusion, Rockall's had the strongest correlation with duration of admission and with rebleeding requiring surgery and Charlson was best in predicting 30-day mortality. Modifications of these systems should be explored to improve their efficiency in ATD users. PMID:28839866

  10. Obesity phenotype and coronary heart disease risk as estimated by the Framingham risk score. (United States)

    Park, Yong Soon; Kim, Jun-Su


    There are conflicting data as to whether general or abdominal obesity is a better predictor of cardiovascular risk. This cross-sectional study involved 4,573 subjects aged 30 to 74 yr who participated in the Fourth Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey conducted in 2008. Obesity phenotype was classified by means of body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC), and participants were categorized into 4 groups. Individuals' 10-yr risk of coronary heart diseases (CHD) was determined from the Framingham risk score. Subjects with obese WC had a higher proportion of high risk for CHD compared to the normal WC group, irrespective of BMI level. Relative to subjects with normal BMI/normal WC, the adjusted odds ratios (ORs) of normal BMI/obese WC group (OR 2.93 [1.70, 5.04] and OR 3.10 [1.49, 6.46]) for CHD risk in male were higher than obese BMI/obese WC group (OR 1.91 [1.40, 2.61] and OR 1.70 [1.16, 2.47]), whereas the adjusted ORs of obese BMI/obese WC group (OR 1.94 [1.24, 3.04] and OR 3.92 [1.75, 8.78]) were higher than the others in female. Subjects with obese BMI/normal WC were not significantly associated with 10-yr CHD risk in men (P = 0.449 and P = 0.067) and women (P = 0.702 and P = 0.658). WC is associated with increased CHD risk regardless of the level of BMI. Men with normal BMI and obese WC tend to be associated with CHD risk than those with obese BMI and obese WC.

  11. Necrotizing soft-tissue infection: Laboratory risk indicator for necrotizing soft tissue infections score

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Madhuri Kulkarni


    Full Text Available Necrotizing soft tissue infections (NSTI can be rapidly progressive and polymicrobial in etiology. Establishing the element of necrotizing infection poses a clinical challenge. A 64-year-old diabetic patient presented to our hospital with a gangrenous patch on anterior abdominal wall, which progressed to an extensive necrotizing lesion within 1 week. Successive laboratory risk indicator for necrotizing softtissue infections (LRINEC scores confirmed the necrotizing element. Cultures yielded Enterococci, Acinetobacter species and Apophysomyces elegans and the latter being considered as an emerging agent of Zygomycosis in immunocompromised hosts. Patient was managed with antibiotics, antifungal treatment and surgical debridement despite which he succumbed to the infection. NSTI′s require an early and aggressive management and LRINEC score can be applied to establish the element of necrotizing pathology. Isolation of multiple organisms becomes confusing to establish the etiological role. Apophysomyces elegans, which was isolated in our patient is being increasingly reported in cases of necrotizing infections and may be responsible for high morbidity and mortality. This scoring has been proposed as an adjunct tool to Microbiological diagnosis when NSTI′s need to be diagnosed early and managed promptly to decrease mortality and morbidity, which however may not come in handy in an immunocompromised host with polymicrobial aggressive infection.

  12. A validated risk score to estimate mortality risk in patients with dementia and pneumonia: barriers to clinical impact

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Steen, J.T.; Albers, G.; Strunk, E.; Muller, M.T.; Ribbe, M.W.


    Background: The clinical impact of risk score use in end-of-life settings is unknown, with reports limited to technical properties. Methods: We conducted a mixed-methods study to evaluate clinical impact of a validated mortality risk score aimed at informing prognosis and supporting clinicians in

  13. Strongly enhanced colorectal cancer risk stratification by combining family history and genetic risk score

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Weigl K


    Full Text Available Korbinian Weigl,1,2 Jenny Chang-Claude,3,4 Phillip Knebel,5 Li Hsu,6 Michael Hoffmeister,1 Hermann Brenner1,2,7 1Division of Clinical Epidemiology and Aging Research, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ, Heidelberg, 2German Cancer Consortium (DKTK, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ, Heidelberg, 3Unit of Genetic Epidemiology, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ, Heidelberg, 4University Cancer Center Hamburg, University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf, Hamburg, 5Department for General, Visceral and Transplantation Surgery, University Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany; 6Public Health Sciences Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA, USA; 7Division of Preventive Oncology, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ and National Center for Tumor Diseases (NCT, Heidelberg, Germany Background and aim: Family history (FH and genetic risk scores (GRSs are increasingly used for risk stratification for colorectal cancer (CRC screening. However, they were mostly considered alternatively rather than jointly. The aim of this study was to assess the potential of individual and joint risk stratification for CRC by FH and GRS.Patients and methods: A GRS was built based on the number of risk alleles in 53 previously identified single-nucleotide polymorphisms among 2,363 patients with a first diagnosis of CRC and 2,198 controls in DACHS [colorectal cancer: chances for prevention through screening], a population-based case-control study in Germany. Associations between GRS and FH with CRC risk were quantified by multiple logistic regression.Results: A total of 316 cases (13.4% and 214 controls (9.7% had a first-degree relative (FDR with CRC (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.86, 95% CI 1.52–2.29. A GRS in the highest decile was associated with a 3.0-fold increased risk of CRC (aOR 3.00, 95% CI 2.24–4.02 compared with the lowest decile. This association was tentatively more pronounced in older age groups. FH and GRS were essentially unrelated, and their

  14. Joint relative risks for estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer from a clinical model, polygenic risk score, and sex hormones. (United States)

    Shieh, Yiwey; Hu, Donglei; Ma, Lin; Huntsman, Scott; Gard, Charlotte C; Leung, Jessica W T; Tice, Jeffrey A; Ziv, Elad; Kerlikowske, Karla; Cummings, Steven R


    Models that predict the risk of estrogen receptor (ER)-positive breast cancers may improve our ability to target chemoprevention. We investigated the contributions of sex hormones to the discrimination of the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (BCSC) risk model and a polygenic risk score comprised of 83 single nucleotide polymorphisms. We conducted a nested case-control study of 110 women with ER-positive breast cancers and 214 matched controls within a mammography screening cohort. Participants were postmenopausal and not on hormonal therapy. The associations of estradiol, estrone, testosterone, and sex hormone binding globulin with ER-positive breast cancer were evaluated using conditional logistic regression. We assessed the individual and combined discrimination of estradiol, the BCSC risk score, and polygenic risk score using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Of the sex hormones assessed, estradiol (OR 3.64, 95% CI 1.64-8.06 for top vs bottom quartile), and to a lesser degree estrone, was most strongly associated with ER-positive breast cancer in unadjusted analysis. The BCSC risk score (OR 1.32, 95% CI 1.00-1.75 per 1% increase) and polygenic risk score (OR 1.58, 95% CI 1.06-2.36 per standard deviation) were also associated with ER-positive cancers. A model containing the BCSC risk score, polygenic risk score, and estradiol levels showed good discrimination for ER-positive cancers (AUROC 0.72, 95% CI 0.65-0.79), representing a significant improvement over the BCSC risk score (AUROC 0.58, 95% CI 0.50-0.65). Adding estradiol and a polygenic risk score to a clinical risk model improves discrimination for postmenopausal ER-positive breast cancers.

  15. The comparison of cardiovascular risk scores using two methods of substituting missing risk factor data in patient medical records

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew Dalton


    Conclusions A simple method of substituting missing risk factor data can produce reliable estimates of CVD risk scores. Targeted screening for high CVD risk, using pre-existing electronic medical record data, does not require multiple imputation methods in risk estimation.

  16. CRISP: Catheterization RISk score for Pediatrics: A Report from the Congenital Cardiac Interventional Study Consortium (CCISC). (United States)

    Nykanen, David G; Forbes, Thomas J; Du, Wei; Divekar, Abhay A; Reeves, Jaxk H; Hagler, Donald J; Fagan, Thomas E; Pedra, Carlos A C; Fleming, Gregory A; Khan, Danyal M; Javois, Alexander J; Gruenstein, Daniel H; Qureshi, Shakeel A; Moore, Phillip M; Wax, David H


    We sought to develop a scoring system that predicts the risk of serious adverse events (SAE's) for individual pediatric patients undergoing cardiac catheterization procedures. Systematic assessment of risk of SAE in pediatric catheterization can be challenging in view of a wide variation in procedure and patient complexity as well as rapidly evolving technology. A 10 component scoring system was originally developed based on expert consensus and review of the existing literature. Data from an international multi-institutional catheterization registry (CCISC) between 2008 and 2013 were used to validate this scoring system. In addition we used multivariate methods to further refine the original risk score to improve its predictive power of SAE's. Univariate analysis confirmed the strong correlation of each of the 10 components of the original risk score with SAE attributed to a pediatric cardiac catheterization (P pediatric cardiac catheterization procedures. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  17. The high-density lipoprotein-adjusted SCORE model worsens SCORE-based risk classification in a contemporary population of 30 824 Europeans

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mortensen, Martin B; Afzal, Shoaib; Nordestgaard, Børge G


    .8 years of follow-up, 339 individuals died of CVD. In the SCORE target population (age 40-65; n = 30,824), fewer individuals were at baseline categorized as high risk (≥5% 10-year risk of fatal CVD) using SCORE-HDL compared with SCORE (10 vs. 17% in men, 1 vs. 3% in women). SCORE-HDL did not improve...... with SCORE, but deteriorated risk classification based on NRI. Future guidelines should consider lower decision thresholds and prioritize CVD morbidity and people above age 65....

  18. Multiple sclerosis decreases explicit counterfactual processing and risk taking in decision making.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samanta Simioni

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: Deficits in decision making (DM are commonly associated with prefrontal cortical damage, but may occur with multiple sclerosis (MS. There are no data concerning the impact of MS on tasks evaluating DM under explicit risk, where different emotional and cognitive components can be distinguished. METHODS: We assessed 72 relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS patients with mild to moderate disease and 38 healthy controls in two DM tasks involving risk with explicit rules: (1 The Wheel of Fortune (WOF, which probes the anticipated affects of decisions outcomes on future choices; and (2 The Cambridge Gamble Task (CGT which measures risk taking. Participants also underwent a neuropsychological and emotional assessment, and skin conductance responses (SCRs were recorded. RESULTS: In the WOF, RRMS patients showed deficits in integrating positive counterfactual information (p<0.005 and greater risk aversion (p<0.001. They reported less negative affect than controls (disappointment: p = 0.007; regret: p = 0.01, although their implicit emotional reactions as measured by post-choice SCRs did not differ. In the CGT, RRMS patients differed from controls in quality of DM (p = 0.01 and deliberation time (p = 0.0002, the latter difference being correlated with attention scores. Such changes did not result in overall decreases in performance (total gains. CONCLUSIONS: The quality of DM under risk was modified by MS in both tasks. The reduction in the expression of disappointment coexisted with an increased risk aversion in the WOF and alexithymia features. These concomitant emotional alterations may have implications for better understanding the components of explicit DM and for the clinical support of MS patients.

  19. The ACTA PORT-score for predicting perioperative risk of blood transfusion for adult cardiac surgery. (United States)

    Klein, A A; Collier, T; Yeates, J; Miles, L F; Fletcher, S N; Evans, C; Richards, T


    A simple and accurate scoring system to predict risk of transfusion for patients undergoing cardiac surgery is lacking. We identified independent risk factors associated with transfusion by performing univariate analysis, followed by logistic regression. We then simplified the score to an integer-based system and tested it using the area under the receiver operator characteristic (AUC) statistic with a Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test. Finally, the scoring system was applied to the external validation dataset and the same statistical methods applied to test the accuracy of the ACTA-PORT score. Several factors were independently associated with risk of transfusion, including age, sex, body surface area, logistic EuroSCORE, preoperative haemoglobin and creatinine, and type of surgery. In our primary dataset, the score accurately predicted risk of perioperative transfusion in cardiac surgery patients with an AUC of 0.76. The external validation confirmed accuracy of the scoring method with an AUC of 0.84 and good agreement across all scores, with a minor tendency to under-estimate transfusion risk in very high-risk patients. The ACTA-PORT score is a reliable, validated tool for predicting risk of transfusion for patients undergoing cardiac surgery. This and other scores can be used in research studies for risk adjustment when assessing outcomes, and might also be incorporated into a Patient Blood Management programme. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Journal of Anaesthesia. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email:

  20. Genetic risk score predicting risk of rheumatoid arthritis phenotypes and age of symptom onset.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lori B Chibnik

    Full Text Available Cumulative genetic profiles can help identify individuals at high-risk for developing RA. We examined the impact of 39 validated genetic risk alleles on the risk of RA phenotypes characterized by serologic and erosive status.We evaluated single nucleotide polymorphisms at 31 validated RA risk loci and 8 Human Leukocyte Antigen alleles among 542 Caucasian RA cases and 551 Caucasian controls from Nurses' Health Study and Nurses' Health Study II. We created a weighted genetic risk score (GRS and evaluated it as 7 ordinal groups using logistic regression (adjusting for age and smoking to assess the relationship between GRS group and odds of developing seronegative (RF- and CCP-, seropositive (RF+ or CCP+, erosive, and seropositive, erosive RA phenotypes. In separate case only analyses, we assessed the relationships between GRS and age of symptom onset. In 542 RA cases, 317 (58% were seropositive, 163 (30% had erosions and 105 (19% were seropositive with erosions. Comparing the highest GRS risk group to the median group, we found an OR of 1.2 (95% CI = 0.8-2.1 for seronegative RA, 3.0 (95% CI = 1.9-4.7 for seropositive RA, 3.2 (95% CI = 1.8-5.6 for erosive RA, and 7.6 (95% CI = 3.6-16.3 for seropositive, erosive RA. No significant relationship was seen between GRS and age of onset.Results suggest that seronegative and seropositive/erosive RA have different genetic architecture and support the importance of considering RA phenotypes in RA genetic studies.

  1. Metformin decreases lung cancer risk in diabetic patients in a dose-dependent manner. (United States)

    Tsai, Ming-Ju; Yang, Chih-Jen; Kung, Ya-Ting; Sheu, Chau-Chyun; Shen, Yu-Ting; Chang, Pi-Yu; Huang, Ming-Shyan; Chiu, Herng-Chia


    Higher risk of lung cancer has been noted in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM). Some observational studies have shown a reduced risk of lung cancer in DM patients taking metformin, but a dose-response relationship has never been reported. The aim of this study is to exam the association between the dose of metformin and the incidence of lung cancer in a Chinese population. The dataset used for this nationwide population-based study is a cohort of 1 million subjects randomly sampled from individuals enrolled in the Taiwan National Health Insurance system. We enrolled all subjects with newly diagnosed type 2 DM between 1997 and 2007. Subjects with a diagnosis of neoplasm before DM diagnosis, those using metformin before DM diagnosis, those with polycystic ovary syndrome, and those with a DM diagnosis before their 15 years of age were excluded. The demographic data and duration, cumulative dose and intensity of metformin use were compared between patients developing lung cancer and those without lung cancer. Totally, 47,356 subjects were identified. After adjusting for age, gender, and modified Charlson Comorbidity Index score, the utilization of metformin was an independent protecting factor, and the risk of developing lung cancer decreased progressively with either the higher cumulative dose or the higher intensity of metformin use. This study revealed that the use of metformin decreased the risk of lung cancer in a dose-dependent manner in patients with type 2 DM. The chemo-preventive effect of metformin deserves further study. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Data on coronary artery calcium score performance and cardiovascular risk reclassification across gender and ethnicities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marat Fudim


    Full Text Available The current guidelines recommend the new risk score, Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease score (ASCVD, to assess an individual׳s risk of future cardiovascular disease (CVD events. No data exist on the predictive utility of ASCVD score with the incremental value of coronary artery calcium scoring (CACS across ethnicities and gender. Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA is a population based study (n=6814 of White (38%, Black (28%, Chinese (22% and Hispanic (12% subjects, aged 45–84 years, free from clinical cardiovascular disease. We performed a post-hoc analysis of 6742 participants (mean age 62, 53% female from the MESA cohort. We evaluated the predictive accuracy for the ASCVD score for each participant in accord with the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association guidelines using pooled cohort equations. Similar to the publication by Fudim et al. “The Metabolic Syndrome, Coronary Artery Calcium Score and Cardiovascular Risk Reclassification” [1] the analytic properties of models incorporating the ASCVD score with and without CACS were compared for cardiovascular disease CVD prediction. Here the analysis focused on ASCVD score (with and without CACS performance across gender and ethnicities. Keywords: Risk stratification, Coronary calcium scoring, Gender, Ethnicity, MESA, {C}{C}

  3. Comparison of risk scoring systems for patients presenting with upper gastrointestinal bleeding: international multicentre prospective study. (United States)

    Stanley, Adrian J; Laine, Loren; Dalton, Harry R; Ngu, Jing H; Schultz, Michael; Abazi, Roseta; Zakko, Liam; Thornton, Susan; Wilkinson, Kelly; Khor, Cristopher J L; Murray, Iain A; Laursen, Stig B


     To compare the predictive accuracy and clinical utility of five risk scoring systems in the assessment of patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding.  International multicentre prospective study.  Six large hospitals in Europe, North America, Asia, and Oceania.  3012 consecutive patients presenting over 12 months with upper gastrointestinal bleeding.  Comparison of pre-endoscopy scores (admission Rockall, AIMS65, and Glasgow Blatchford) and post-endoscopy scores (full Rockall and PNED) for their ability to predict predefined clinical endpoints: a composite endpoint (transfusion, endoscopic treatment, interventional radiology, surgery, or 30 day mortality), endoscopic treatment, 30 day mortality, rebleeding, and length of hospital stay. Optimum score thresholds to identify low risk and high risk patients were determined.  The Glasgow Blatchford score was best (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) 0.86) at predicting intervention or death compared with the full Rockall score (0.70), PNED score (0.69), admission Rockall score (0.66, and AIMS65 score (0.68) (all P<0.001). A Glasgow Blatchford score of ≤1 was the optimum threshold to predict survival without intervention (sensitivity 98.6%, specificity 34.6%). The Glasgow Blatchford score was better at predicting endoscopic treatment (AUROC 0.75) than the AIMS65 (0.62) and admission Rockall scores (0.61) (both P<0.001). A Glasgow Blatchford score of ≥7 was the optimum threshold to predict endoscopic treatment (sensitivity 80%, specificity 57%). The PNED (AUROC 0.77) and AIMS65 scores (0.77) were best at predicting mortality, with both superior to admission Rockall score (0.72) and Glasgow Blatchford score (0.64; P<0.001). Score thresholds of ≥4 for PNED, ≥2 for AIMS65, ≥4 for admission Rockall, and ≥5 for full Rockall were optimal at predicting death, with sensitivities of 65.8-78.6% and specificities of 65.0-65.3%. No score was helpful at predicting rebleeding or length

  4. Calcium scoring with prospectively ECG-triggered CT: Using overlapping datasets generated with MPR decreases inter-scan variability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rutten, A.; Isgum, I.; Prokop, M.


    Objective: To examine the feasibility of reducing the inter-scan variability of prospectively ECG-triggered calcium-scoring scans by using overlapping 3-mm datasets generated from multiplanar reformation (MPR) instead of non-overlapping 3-mm or 1.5-mm datasets. Patients and methods: Seventy-five women (59-79 years old) underwent two sequential prospectively ECG-triggered calcium-scoring scans with 16 mm x 1.5 mm collimation in one session. Between the two scans patients got off and on the table. We performed calcium scoring (Agatston and mass scores) on the following datasets: contiguous 3-mm sections reconstructed from the raw data (A), contiguous 3-mm sections from MPR (B), overlapping 3-mm sections from MPR (C) and contiguous 1.5-mm sections from the raw data (D). To determine the feasibility of the MPR approach, we compared MPR (B) with direct raw data reconstruction (A). Inter-scan variability was calculated for each type of dataset (A-D). Results: Calcium scores ranged from 0 to 1455 (Agatston) and 0 to 279 mg (mass) for overlapping 3-mm sections (C). Calcium scores (both Agatston and mass) were nearly identical for MPR (B) and raw data approaches (A), with inter-quartile ranges of 0-1% for inter-scan variability. Median inter-scan variability with contiguous 3-mm sections (B) was 13% (Agatston) and 11% (mass). Median variability was reduced to 10% (Agatston and mass) with contiguous 1.5-mm sections (D) and to 8% (Agatston) and 7% (mass) with overlapping 3-mm MPR (A). Conclusion: Calcium scoring on MPR yields nearly identical results to calcium scoring on images directly reconstructed from raw data. Overlapping MPR from prospectively ECG-triggered scans improve inter-scan variability of calcium scoring without increasing patient radiation dose.

  5. Construction of an Exome-Wide Risk Score for Schizophrenia Based on a Weighted Burden Test. (United States)

    Curtis, David


    Polygenic risk scores obtained as a weighted sum of associated variants can be used to explore association in additional data sets and to assign risk scores to individuals. The methods used to derive polygenic risk scores from common SNPs are not suitable for variants detected in whole exome sequencing studies. Rare variants, which may have major effects, are seen too infrequently to judge whether they are associated and may not be shared between training and test subjects. A method is proposed whereby variants are weighted according to their frequency, their annotations and the genes they affect. A weighted sum across all variants provides an individual risk score. Scores constructed in this way are used in a weighted burden test and are shown to be significantly different between schizophrenia cases and controls using a five-way cross-validation procedure. This approach represents a first attempt to summarise exome sequence variation into a summary risk score, which could be combined with risk scores from common variants and from environmental factors. It is hoped that the method could be developed further. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/University College London.

  6. Validation of an imaging based cardiovascular risk score in a Scottish population. (United States)

    Kockelkoren, Remko; Jairam, Pushpa M; Murchison, John T; Debray, Thomas P A; Mirsadraee, Saeed; van der Graaf, Yolanda; Jong, Pim A de; van Beek, Edwin J R


    A radiological risk score that determines 5-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk using routine care CT and patient information readily available to radiologists was previously developed. External validation in a Scottish population was performed to assess the applicability and validity of the risk score in other populations. 2915 subjects aged ≥40 years who underwent routine clinical chest CT scanning for non-cardiovascular diagnostic indications were followed up until first diagnosis of, or death from, CVD. Using a case-cohort approach, all cases and a random sample of 20% of the participant's CT examinations were visually graded for cardiovascular calcifications and cardiac diameter was measured. The radiological risk score was determined using imaging findings, age, gender, and CT indication. Performance on 5-year CVD risk prediction was assessed. 384 events occurred in 2124 subjects during a mean follow-up of 4.25 years (0-6.4 years). The risk score demonstrated reasonable performance in the studied population. Calibration showed good agreement between actual and 5-year predicted risk of CVD. The c-statistic was 0.71 (95%CI:0.67-0.75). The radiological CVD risk score performed adequately in the Scottish population offering a potential novel strategy for identifying patients at high risk for developing cardiovascular disease using routine care CT data. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Two acute kidney injury risk scores for critically ill cancer patients undergoing non-cardiac surgery. (United States)

    Xing, Xue-Zhong; Wang, Hai-Jun; Huang, Chu-Lin; Yang, Quan-Hui; Qu, Shi-Ning; Zhang, Hao; Wang, Hao; Gao, Yong; Xiao, Qing-Ling; Sun, Ke-Lin


    Several risk scoures have been used in predicting acute kidney injury (AKI) of patients undergoing general or specific operations such as cardiac surgery. This study aimed to evaluate the use of two AKI risk scores in patients who underwent non-cardiac surgery but required intensive care. The clinical data of patients who had been admitted to ICU during the first 24 hours of ICU stay between September 2009 and August 2010 at the Cancer Institute, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College were retrospectively collected and analyzed. AKI was diagnosed based on the acute kidney injury network (AKIN) criteria. Two AKI risk scores were calculated: Kheterpal and Abelha factors. The incidence of AKI was 10.3%. Patients who developed AKI had a increased ICU mortality of 10.9% vs. 1.0% and an in-hospital mortality of 13.0 vs. 1.5%, compared with those without AKI. There was a significant difference between the classification of Kheterpal's AKI risk scores and the occurrence of AKI (PAbelha's AKI risk scores and the occurrence of AKI (P=0.499). Receiver operating characteristic curves demonstrated an area under the curve of 0.655±0.043 (P=0.001, 95% confidence interval: 0.571-0.739) for Kheterpal's AKI risk score and 0.507±0.044 (P=0.879, 95% confidence interval: 0.422-0.592) for Abelha's AKI risk score. Kheterpal's AKI risk scores are more accurate than Abelha's AKI risk scores in predicting the occurrence of AKI in patients undergoing non-cardiac surgery with moderate predictive capability.

  8. Scores for post-myocardial infarction risk stratification in the community. (United States)

    Singh, Mandeep; Reeder, Guy S; Jacobsen, Steven J; Weston, Susan; Killian, Jill; Roger, Véronique L


    Several scores, most of which were derived from clinical trials, have been proposed for stratifying risk after myocardial infarctions (MIs). Little is known about their generalizability to the community, their respective advantages, and whether the ejection fraction (EF) adds prognostic information to the scores. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) and Predicting Risk of Death in Cardiac Disease Tool (PREDICT) scores in a geographically defined MI cohort and determine the incremental value of EF for risk stratification. MIs occurring in Olmsted County were validated with the use of standardized criteria and stratified with the ECG into ST-segment elevation (STEMI) and non-ST-segment elevation (NSTEMI) MI. Logistic regression examined the discriminant accuracy of the TIMI and PREDICT scores to predict death and recurrent MI and assessed the incremental value of the EF. After 6.3+/-4.7 years, survival was similar for the 562 STEMIs and 717 NSTEMIs. The discriminant accuracy of the TIMI score was good in STEMI but only fair in NSTEMI. Across time and end points, irrespective of reperfusion therapy, the discriminant accuracy of the PREDICT score was consistently superior to that of the TIMI scores, largely because PREDICT includes comorbidity; EF provided incremental information over that provided by the scores and comorbidity. In the community, comorbidity and EF convey important prognostic information and should be included in approaches for stratifying risk after MI.

  9. A Simple Risk Score for Identifying Individuals with Impaired Fasting Glucose in the Southern Chinese Population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hui Wang


    Full Text Available This study aimed to develop and validate a simple risk score for detecting individuals with impaired fasting glucose (IFG among the Southern Chinese population. A sample of participants aged ≥20 years and without known diabetes from the 2006–2007 Guangzhou diabetes cross-sectional survey was used to develop separate risk scores for men and women. The participants completed a self-administered structured questionnaire and underwent simple clinical measurements. The risk scores were developed by multiple logistic regression analysis. External validation was performed based on three other studies: the 2007 Zhuhai rural population-based study, the 2008–2010 Guangzhou diabetes cross-sectional study and the 2007 Tibet population-based study. Performance of the scores was measured with the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test and ROC c-statistic. Age, waist circumference, body mass index and family history of diabetes were included in the risk score for both men and women, with the additional factor of hypertension for men. The ROC c-statistic was 0.70 for both men and women in the derivation samples. Risk scores of ≥28 for men and ≥18 for women showed respective sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of 56.6%, 71.7%, 13.0% and 96.0% for men and 68.7%, 60.2%, 11% and 96.0% for women in the derivation population. The scores performed comparably with the Zhuhai rural sample and the 2008–2010 Guangzhou urban samples but poorly in the Tibet sample. The performance of pre-existing USA, Shanghai, and Chengdu risk scores was poorer in our population than in their original study populations. The results suggest that the developed simple IFG risk scores can be generalized in Guangzhou city and nearby rural regions and may help primary health care workers to identify individuals with IFG in their practice.

  10. Myocardium at risk assessed by electrocardiographic scores and cardiovascular magnetic resonance - a MITOCARE substudy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sejersten, Maria; Fakhri, Yama; Pape, Marianne


    Introduction The myocardium at risk (MaR) represents the quantitative ischemic area destined to myocardial infarction (MI) if no reperfusion therapy is initiated. Different ECG scores for MaR have been developed, but there is no consensus as to which should be preferred. Objective Comparisons...... of ECG scores and Cardiac Magnetic Resonance (CMR) for determining MaR. Methods MaR was determined by 3 different ECG scores, and by CMR in ST-segment elevation MI (STEMI) patients from the MITOCARE cardioprotection trial. The Aldrich score (AL) is based on the number of leads with ST-elevation...... for anterior MI and the sum of ST-segment elevation for inferior MI on the admission ECG. The van Hellemond score (VH) considers both the ischemic and infarcted component of the MaR by adding the AL and the QRS score, which is an estimate of final infarct size. The Hasche score is based on the maximal possible...

  11. Risk score predicts high-grade prostate cancer in DNA-methylation positive, histopathologically negative biopsies. (United States)

    Van Neste, Leander; Partin, Alan W; Stewart, Grant D; Epstein, Jonathan I; Harrison, David J; Van Criekinge, Wim


    Prostate cancer (PCa) diagnosis is challenging because efforts for effective, timely treatment of men with significant cancer typically result in over-diagnosis and repeat biopsies. The presence or absence of epigenetic aberrations, more specifically DNA-methylation of GSTP1, RASSF1, and APC in histopathologically negative prostate core biopsies has resulted in an increased negative predictive value (NPV) of ∼90% and thus could lead to a reduction of unnecessary repeat biopsies. Here, it is investigated whether, in methylation-positive men, DNA-methylation intensities could help to identify those men harboring high-grade (Gleason score ≥7) PCa, resulting in an improved positive predictive value. Two cohorts, consisting of men with histopathologically negative index biopsies, followed by a positive or negative repeat biopsy, were combined. EpiScore, a methylation intensity algorithm was developed in methylation-positive men, using area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic as metric for performance. Next, a risk score was developed combining EpiScore with traditional clinical risk factors to further improve the identification of high-grade (Gleason Score ≥7) cancer. Compared to other risk factors, detection of DNA-methylation in histopathologically negative biopsies was the most significant and important predictor of high-grade cancer, resulting in a NPV of 96%. In methylation-positive men, EpiScore was significantly higher for those with high-grade cancer detected upon repeat biopsy, compared to those with either no or low-grade cancer. The risk score resulted in further improvement of patient risk stratification and was a significantly better predictor compared to currently used metrics as PSA and the prostate cancer prevention trial (PCPT) risk calculator (RC). A decision curve analysis indicated strong clinical utility for the risk score as decision-making tool for repeat biopsy. Low DNA-methylation levels in PCa-negative biopsies led

  12. Personalized Risk Scoring for Critical Care Prognosis Using Mixtures of Gaussian Processes. (United States)

    Alaa, Ahmed M; Yoon, Jinsung; Hu, Scott; van der Schaar, Mihaela


    In this paper, we develop a personalized real-time risk scoring algorithm that provides timely and granular assessments for the clinical acuity of ward patients based on their (temporal) lab tests and vital signs; the proposed risk scoring system ensures timely intensive care unit admissions for clinically deteriorating patients. The risk scoring system is based on the idea of sequential hypothesis testing under an uncertain time horizon. The system learns a set of latent patient subtypes from the offline electronic health record data, and trains a mixture of Gaussian Process experts, where each expert models the physiological data streams associated with a specific patient subtype. Transfer learning techniques are used to learn the relationship between a patient's latent subtype and her static admission information (e.g., age, gender, transfer status, ICD-9 codes, etc). Experiments conducted on data from a heterogeneous cohort of 6321 patients admitted to Ronald Reagan UCLA medical center show that our score significantly outperforms the currently deployed risk scores, such as the Rothman index, MEWS, APACHE, and SOFA scores, in terms of timeliness, true positive rate, and positive predictive value. Our results reflect the importance of adopting the concepts of personalized medicine in critical care settings; significant accuracy and timeliness gains can be achieved by accounting for the patients' heterogeneity. The proposed risk scoring methodology can confer huge clinical and social benefits on a massive number of critically ill inpatients who exhibit adverse outcomes including, but not limited to, cardiac arrests, respiratory arrests, and septic shocks.

  13. Sixteen weeks of resistance training can decrease the risk of metabolic syndrome in healthy postmenopausal women

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Conceição MS


    Full Text Available Miguel Soares Conceição,1 Valéria Bonganha,1 Felipe Cassaro Vechin,2 Ricardo Paes de Barros Berton,1 Manoel Emílio Lixandrão,1 Felipe Romano Damas Nogueira,1 Giovana Vergínia de Souza,1 Mara Patricia Traina Chacon-Mikahil,1 Cleiton Augusto Libardi2 1Exercise Physiology Laboratory, School of Physical Education, State University of Campinas, Campinas, 2Laboratory of Neuromuscular Adaptation to Strength Training, School of Physical Education and Sport, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil Background: The postmenopausal phase has been considered an aggravating factor for developing metabolic syndrome. Notwithstanding, no studies have as yet investigated the effects of resistance training on metabolic syndrome in postmenopausal women. Thus, the purpose of this study was to verify whether resistance training could reduce the risk of metabolic syndrome in postmenopausal women. Methods: Twenty postmenopausal women were randomly assigned to a resistance training protocol (n = 10, 53.40 ± 3.95 years, 64.58 ± 9.22 kg or a control group (n = 10, 53.0 ± 5.7 years, 64.03 ± 5.03 kg. In the resistance training protocol, ten exercises were performed, with 3 × 8–10 maximal repetitions three times per week, and the load was increased every week. Two-way analysis of variance was used to evaluate specific metabolic syndrome Z-score, high density lipoprotein cholesterol, fasting blood glucose, triglycerides, waist circumference, blood pressure, strength, and body composition. The level of statistical significance was set at P < 0.05. Results: The main results demonstrated a significant decrease of metabolic syndrome Z-score when the postmenopausal women performed resistance training (P = 0.0162. Moreover, we observed decreases in fasting blood glucose for the resistance training group (P = 0.001, and also significant improvements in lean body mass (P = 0.042, 2.46%, reduction of body fat percentage (P = 0.001, −6.75% and noticeable increases in


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Allahyar Golabchi


    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: In most studies, the agreeable risk scores for ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI consist of thrombolytic in myocardial infarction (TIMI risk score and modified Gensini risk score. Researchers showed significant relations between TIMI with angiography scores in patients with UA/NSTEMI. We studied this relation in patients with STEMI.    METHODS: We studied CCU patients with STEMI hospitalized in several hospitals of Isfahan, Iran from September 2007 to June 2008. Sampling method of 240 patients was random and simple. Exclusion criteria were incomplete history, nonspecific electrocardiogram changes, left bundle branch block and not accomplished angiography or accomplished angiography after 2 months of STEMI. Questionnaire indices collected on the basis of TIMI (0-14 points. Echocardiography and angiography were done and then, we used Gensini (0-400 points to review films of angiography. Spearman`s rank test and Pearson correlation coefficient were used to study the relation between these scores.    RESULTS: One hundred and sixty one patients were male and their average age was 60.02 years. Averages of TIMI and Gensini scores were 6.30 ± 2.5 and 120.77 ± 50.4, respectively. Study showed significant relation between TIMI, age and LVEF (P <0.001, r=-0.46. Also, between Gensini and age, gender and LVEF significant relation was found (P <0.001. But, a meaningful correlation didn’t exist between TIMI and the gender (P =0.08. Our study proved direct relation between TIMI risk scores and modified Gensini scores (P <0.001, r=0.55.     CONCLUSION: We may decide quickly and correctly in emergency room to distinguish which patients with STEMI could derive a benefit from invasive strategies using TIMI score. Also, TIMI risk score can be a good predictor to determine the extension of coronary artery disease in patients with STEMI. As a result, we suggest determination of TIMI score for any patient entered emergency room. Also

  15. Scoring Systems for Estimating the Risk of Anticoagulant-Associated Bleeding. (United States)

    Parks, Anna L; Fang, Margaret C


    Anticoagulant medications are frequently used to prevent and treat thromboembolic disease. However, the benefits of anticoagulants must be balanced with a careful assessment of the risk of bleeding complications that can ensue from their use. Several bleeding risk scores are available, including the Outpatient Bleeding Risk Index, HAS-BLED, ATRIA, and HEMORR 2 HAGES risk assessment tools, and can be used to help estimate patients' risk for bleeding on anticoagulants. These tools vary by their individual risk components and in how they define and weigh clinical factors. However, it is not yet clear how best to integrate bleeding risk tools into clinical practice. Current bleeding risk scores generally have modest predictive ability and limited ability to predict the most devastating complication of anticoagulation, intracranial hemorrhage. In clinical practice, bleeding risk tools should be paired with a formal determination of thrombosis risk, as their results may be most influential for patients at the lower end of thrombosis risk, as well as for highlighting potentially modifiable risk factors for bleeding. Use of bleeding risk scores may assist clinicians and patients in making informed and individualized anticoagulation decisions. Thieme Medical Publishers 333 Seventh Avenue, New York, NY 10001, USA.

  16. The SAFARI Score to Assess the Risk of Convulsive Seizure During Admission for Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage. (United States)

    Jaja, Blessing N R; Schweizer, Tom A; Claassen, Jan; Le Roux, Peter; Mayer, Stephan A; Macdonald, R Loch


    Seizure is a significant complication in patients under acute admission for aneurysmal SAH and could result in poor outcomes. Treatment strategies to optimize management will benefit from methods to better identify at-risk patients. To develop and validate a risk score for convulsive seizure during acute admission for SAH. A risk score was developed in 1500 patients from a single tertiary hospital and externally validated in 852 patients. Candidate predictors were identified by systematic review of the literature and were included in a backward stepwise logistic regression model with in-hospital seizure as a dependent variable. The risk score was assessed for discrimination using the area under the receiver operator characteristics curve (AUC) and for calibration using a goodness-of-fit test. The SAFARI score, based on 4 items (age ≥ 60 yr, seizure occurrence before hospitalization, ruptured aneurysm in the anterior circulation, and hydrocephalus requiring cerebrospinal fluid diversion), had AUC = 0.77, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.73-0.82 in the development cohort. The validation cohort had AUC = 0.65, 95% CI 0.56-0.73. A calibrated increase in the risk of seizure was noted with increasing SAFARI score points. The SAFARI score is a simple tool that adequately stratified SAH patients according to their risk for seizure using a few readily derived predictor items. It may contribute to a more individualized management of seizure following SAH.

  17. How much does HDL cholesterol add to risk estimation? A report from the SCORE Investigators.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese


    Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE), the risk estimation system recommended by the European guidelines on cardiovascular disease prevention, estimates 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease mortality based on age, sex, country of origin, systolic blood pressure, smoking status and either total cholesterol (TC) or TC\\/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) ratio. As, counterintuitively, these two systems perform very similarly, we have investigated whether incorporating HDL-C and TC as separate variables improves risk estimation.

  18. Performance of Surgical Risk Scores to Predict Mortality after Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leonardo Sinnott Silva


    Full Text Available Abstract Background: Predicting mortality in patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI remains a challenge. Objectives: To evaluate the performance of 5 risk scores for cardiac surgery in predicting the 30-day mortality among patients of the Brazilian Registry of TAVI. Methods: The Brazilian Multicenter Registry prospectively enrolled 418 patients undergoing TAVI in 18 centers between 2008 and 2013. The 30-day mortality risk was calculated using the following surgical scores: the logistic EuroSCORE I (ESI, EuroSCORE II (ESII, Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS score, Ambler score (AS and Guaragna score (GS. The performance of the risk scores was evaluated in terms of their calibration (Hosmer–Lemeshow test and discrimination [area under the receiver–operating characteristic curve (AUC]. Results: The mean age was 81.5 ± 7.7 years. The CoreValve (Medtronic was used in 86.1% of the cohort, and the transfemoral approach was used in 96.2%. The observed 30-day mortality was 9.1%. The 30-day mortality predicted by the scores was as follows: ESI, 20.2 ± 13.8%; ESII, 6.5 ± 13.8%; STS score, 14.7 ± 4.4%; AS, 7.0 ± 3.8%; GS, 17.3 ± 10.8%. Using AUC, none of the tested scores could accurately predict the 30-day mortality. AUC for the scores was as follows: 0.58 [95% confidence interval (CI: 0.49 to 0.68, p = 0.09] for ESI; 0.54 (95% CI: 0.44 to 0.64, p = 0.42 for ESII; 0.57 (95% CI: 0.47 to 0.67, p = 0.16 for AS; 0.48 (95% IC: 0.38 to 0.57, p = 0.68 for STS score; and 0.52 (95% CI: 0.42 to 0.62, p = 0.64 for GS. The Hosmer–Lemeshow test indicated acceptable calibration for all scores (p > 0.05. Conclusions: In this real world Brazilian registry, the surgical risk scores were inaccurate in predicting mortality after TAVI. Risk models specifically developed for TAVI are required.

  19. A Posterior Circulation Ischemia Risk Score System to Assist the Diagnosis of Dizziness. (United States)

    Chen, Ru; Su, Rui; Deng, Mingzhu; Liu, Jia; Hu, Qing; Song, Zhi


    We aimed to establish a risk score system without radio-image examination, which could help clinicians to differentiate patients with vertigo and posterior circulation ischemia (PCI) rapidly from the other dizzy patients. We analyzed 304 patients with vertigo (50% PCI). The attributes with more significant contributions were selected as the risk factors for the PCI risk score system, and every one of them was assigned a value according to their respective odds ratio values. We also compared the respective receiver operating characteristic curves of the 3 diagnostic methods (PCI score system, ABCD 2 , and Essen score systems) to evaluate their prediction effectiveness. Nine risk factors were ultimately selected for PCI score system, including high blood pressure (1'), diabetes mellitus (1'), ischemic stroke (1'), rotating and rocking (-1'), difficulty in speech (5'), tinnitus (-5'), limb and sensory deficit (5'), gait ataxia (1'), and limb ataxia (5'). According to their respective PCI risk scores, the patients were divided into 3 subgroups: low risk (≤0', risk 95.0%). When 0' was selected as a cutoff point for differentiating the patients with PCI from patients without PCI, the sensitivity was 94.1%, with a specificity of 41.4%. The areas under the receiver operator curve value of PCI score system was .82 (P = .000), much higher than the areas under the receiver operator curve value of ABCD 2 (.69, P = .000) and that of the Essen system (.67, P = .000) CONCLUSION: The PCI score system could help clinicians to differentiate patients with vertigo and PCI rapidly from the other dizzy patients. Copyright © 2018 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. [Cardiovascular risk by Framingham and SCORE in patients 40-65 years old]. (United States)

    González, Carmen; Rodilla, Enrique; Costa, José A; Justicia, Jorge; Pascual, José M


    The aim of this study was to compare the clinical and treatment implications of 2 cardiovascular risk stratification systems in a population of patients 40-65 years old. 929 non diabetic patients (40-65 years old) (51% female) with no evidence of previous cardiovascular disease were included in the study. The risk of cardiovascular death was assessed with the charts of the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE), and coronary risk by the Framingham function (National Cholesterol Education Program Expert Panel on Detection, Evaluation and Treatment of High Blood Cholesterol in Adults -NCEP-ATP-III-). Patients were considered of high risk if risk of cardiovascular death was >or= 5% and coronary risk was > 20%, respectively. 4.1% of patients were considered as high risk by SCORE and 2.5% by Framingham. Only 0.2% of females were classified as high risk with either system. 8.2% and 4.8% of male population were considered as high risk by SCORE and Framingham, respectively. There was a low level of concordance between both systems. Patients classified as high risk by SCORE but not by Framingham were older, smoke less and had a better lipid profile. According to European Guidelines 28% of male and 23% of female were candidates to hypolipemic treatment, that proportion was higher, 43% of males and 28% of females, by NCEP-ATP-III guidelines. In Spanish patients 40-65 years old, SCORE charts almost duplicate the number of high risk individuals compared to Framingham. although the number of patients candidates to hypolipemic treatment is lower with the European than ATP-III guidelines. Differences were more evident in male.

  1. Comparison of risk scoring systems for patients presenting with upper gastrointestinal bleeding

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stanley, Adrian J; Laine, Loren; Dalton, Harry R


    OBJECTIVE: To compare the predictive accuracy and clinical utility of five risk scoring systems in the assessment of patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding. DESIGN: International multicentre prospective study. SETTING: Six large hospitals in Europe, North America, Asia, and Oceania...... clinical endpoints: a composite endpoint (transfusion, endoscopic treatment, interventional radiology, surgery, or 30 day mortality), endoscopic treatment, 30 day mortality, rebleeding, and length of hospital stay. Optimum score thresholds to identify low risk and high risk patients were determined...... accuracy at predicting need for hospital based intervention or death. Scores of ≤1 appear the optimum threshold for directing patients to outpatient management. AUROCs of scores for the other endpoints are less than 0.80, therefore their clinical utility for these outcomes seems to be limited...

  2. Association of mallampatti score as a risk factor for obstructive sleep apnea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Naqvi, S.U.; Shahab, A.; Zia, S.; Adil, S.O.; Tariq, S.


    Objectives: To determine the association of Mallampatti Score as a risk factor for Obstructive Sleep Apnea (OSA). Methodology: This is a prospective questionnaire based survey included 103 individuals Results: Mean BMI of patients was 23.83+-6.03 kg/m2. There were 28 (27.2%) overweight and 22 (21.4%) obese patients. High risk on Berlin questionnaire was found in 12 (11.7%) patients. Both Berlin Questionnaire and Epworth questioner showed a negative association with Mallampati; the low risk group of these variables in our study with a p-value of 0.034 and 0.016 respectively i.e they are good for exclusion of OSA if found negative. Comparison of general characteristics with Mallampatti score and snoring showed significant association among patients with >25 years of age (p=0.02), low risk of Berlin score (p=0.034) and normal Epworth Sleep Score (p=0.016). Fifteen (14.5%) of overweight and obese individuals had higher Mallampatti score III and lV but the P-values were not significant (0.283 and 0.386). Conclusion: There is strong association between high Mallampatti score and O.S.A. Therefore we suggest that high mallampatti can be taken as a risk factor / screening tool limitation for O.S.A. (author)

  3. Interrater reliability of Violence Risk Appraisal Guide scores provided in Canadian criminal proceedings. (United States)

    Edens, John F; Penson, Brittany N; Ruchensky, Jared R; Cox, Jennifer; Smith, Shannon Toney


    Published research suggests that most violence risk assessment tools have relatively high levels of interrater reliability, but recent evidence of inconsistent scores among forensic examiners in adversarial settings raises concerns about the "field reliability" of such measures. This study specifically examined the reliability of Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG) scores in Canadian criminal cases identified in the legal database, LexisNexis. Over 250 reported cases were located that made mention of the VRAG, with 42 of these cases containing 2 or more scores that could be submitted to interrater reliability analyses. Overall, scores were skewed toward higher risk categories. The intraclass correlation (ICCA1) was .66, with pairs of forensic examiners placing defendants into the same VRAG risk "bin" in 68% of the cases. For categorical risk statements (i.e., low, moderate, high), examiners provided converging assessment results in most instances (86%). In terms of potential predictors of rater disagreement, there was no evidence for adversarial allegiance in our sample. Rater disagreement in the scoring of 1 VRAG item (Psychopathy Checklist-Revised; Hare, 2003), however, strongly predicted rater disagreement in the scoring of the VRAG (r = .58). (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  4. Cardiovascular disease risk score prediction models for women and its applicability to Asians

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Goh LGH


    Full Text Available Louise GH Goh,1 Satvinder S Dhaliwal,1 Timothy A Welborn,2 Peter L Thompson,2–4 Bruce R Maycock,1 Deborah A Kerr,1 Andy H Lee,1 Dean Bertolatti,1 Karin M Clark,1 Rakhshanda Naheed,1 Ranil Coorey,1 Phillip R Della5 1School of Public Health, Curtin Health Innovation Research Institute, Curtin University, Perth, WA, Australia; 2Sir Charles Gairdner Hospital, Nedlands, Perth, WA, Australia; 3School of Population Health, University of Western Australia, Perth, WA, Australia; 4Harry Perkins Institute for Medical Research, Perth, WA, Australia; 5School of Nursing and Midwifery, Curtin Health Innovation Research Institute, Curtin University, Perth, WA, Australia Purpose: Although elevated cardiovascular disease (CVD risk factors are associated with a higher risk of developing heart conditions across all ethnic groups, variations exist between groups in the distribution and association of risk factors, and also risk levels. This study assessed the 10-year predicted risk in a multiethnic cohort of women and compared the differences in risk between Asian and Caucasian women. Methods: Information on demographics, medical conditions and treatment, smoking behavior, dietary behavior, and exercise patterns were collected. Physical measurements were also taken. The 10-year risk was calculated using the Framingham model, SCORE (Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation risk chart for low risk and high risk regions, the general CVD, and simplified general CVD risk score models in 4,354 females aged 20–69 years with no heart disease, diabetes, or stroke at baseline from the third Australian Risk Factor Prevalence Study. Country of birth was used as a surrogate for ethnicity. Nonparametric statistics were used to compare risk levels between ethnic groups. Results: Asian women generally had lower risk of CVD when compared to Caucasian women. The 10-year predicted risk was, however, similar between Asian and Australian women, for some models. These findings were

  5. Coronary artery calcification scores improve contrast-induced nephropathy risk assessment in chronic kidney disease patients. (United States)

    Osugi, Naohiro; Suzuki, Susumu; Shibata, Yohei; Tatami, Yosuke; Harata, Shingo; Ota, Tomoyuki; Hayashi, Mutsuharu; Yasuda, Yoshinari; Ishii, Hideki; Shimizu, Atsuya; Murohara, Toyoaki


    Coronary artery calcification (CAC) is an independent predictor of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the predictive value of CAC scores for the incidence of contrast-induced nephropathy (CIN) after cardiac catheterization in non-dialyzed CKD patients. The present study evaluated a total of 140 CKD patients who underwent cardiac catheterization. Patients were stratified into two groups based on the optimal cut-off value of the CAC score, which was graded by a non-triggered, routine diagnostic chest computed tomography scan: CAC score ≥8 (high CAC group); and CAC score 10 % in the baseline serum cystatin C level at 24 h after contrast administration. The mean estimated glomerular filtration rate levels were 41.1 mL/min/1.73 m 2 , and the mean contrast dose administered was 37.5 mL. Patients with high CAC scores exhibited a higher incidence of CIN than patients with low CAC scores (25.5 vs. 3.2 %, p < 0.001). After multivariate adjustment for confounders, the CAC score predicted CIN (odds ratio 1.68, 95 % confidence interval 1.28-2.21, p < 0.001). Moreover, the C-index for CIN prediction significantly increased when the CAC scores were added to the Mehran risk score (0.855 vs. 0.760, p = 0.023). CAC scores, as evaluated using semi-quantitative methods, are a simple and powerful predictor of CIN. Incorporating the CAC score in the Mehran risk score significantly improved the predictive ability to predict CIN incidence.

  6. Recurrent Stroke: The Value of the CHA2DS2VASc Score and the Essen Stroke Risk Score in a Nationwide Stroke Cohort. (United States)

    Andersen, Søren Due; Gorst-Rasmussen, Anders; Lip, Gregory Y H; Bach, Flemming W; Larsen, Torben Bjerregaard


    The CHA2DS2VASc score and the Essen Stroke Risk Score are respectively used for risk stratification in patients with atrial fibrillation and in patients with cerebrovascular incidents. We aimed to test the ability of the 2 scores to predict stroke recurrence, death, and cardiovascular events (stroke, transient ischemic attack, myocardial infarction, or arterial thromboembolism) in a nationwide Danish cohort study, among patients with incident ischemic stroke and no atrial fibrillation. We conducted a registry-based study in patients with incident ischemic stroke and no atrial fibrillation. Patients were stratified according to the CHA2DS2VASc score and the Essen Stroke Risk Score and were followed up until stroke recurrence or death. We estimated stratified incidence rates and hazard ratios and calculated the cumulative risks. 42 182 patients with incident ischemic stroke with median age 70.1 years were included. The overall 1-year incidence rates of recurrent stroke, death, and cardiovascular events were 3.6%, 10.5%, and 6.7%, respectively. The incidence rates, the hazard ratios, and the cumulative risk of all outcomes increased with increasing risk scores. C-statistics for both risk scores were around 0.55 for 1-year stroke recurrence and cardiovascular events and correspondingly for death around 0.67 for both scores. In this cohort of non-atrial fibrillation patients with incident ischemic stroke, increasing CHA2DS2VASc score and Essen Stroke Risk Score was associated with increasing risk of recurrent stroke, death, and cardiovascular events. Their discriminatory performance was modest and further refinements are required for clinical application. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

  7. Concordance of Motion Sensor and Clinician-Rated Fall Risk Scores in Older Adults. (United States)

    Elledge, Julie


    As the older adult population in the United States continues to grow, developing reliable, valid, and practical methods for identifying fall risk is a high priority. Falls are prevalent in older adults and contribute significantly to morbidity and mortality rates and rising health costs. Identifying at-risk older adults and intervening in a timely manner can reduce falls. Conventional fall risk assessment tools require a health professional trained in the use of each tool for administration and interpretation. Motion sensor technology, which uses three-dimensional cameras to measure patient movements, is promising for assessing older adults' fall risk because it could eliminate or reduce the need for provider oversight. The purpose of this study was to assess the concordance of fall risk scores as measured by a motion sensor device, the OmniVR Virtual Rehabilitation System, with clinician-rated fall risk scores in older adult outpatients undergoing physical rehabilitation. Three standardized fall risk assessments were administered by the OmniVR and by a clinician. Validity of the OmniVR was assessed by measuring the concordance between the two assessment methods. Stability of the OmniVR fall risk ratings was assessed by measuring test-retest reliability. The OmniVR scores showed high concordance with the clinician-rated scores and high stability over time, demonstrating comparability with provider measurements.

  8. Low amniotic fluid index in high risk pregnancy and poor apgar score at birth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sultana, S.; Akhtar, K.A.K.


    To determine the accuracy of antepartum Amniotic Fluid Index (AFI) of 5 cm was labeled as predictor of good outcome at birth. The subjects in both the groups were demographically matched and fulfilled the inclusion and exclusion criteria. The Apgar score was calculated at 5 minutes of birth. The newborns, with Apgar score 6 were labeled as healthy. AFI was compared with Apgar score, using Chi-square and a p-value was calculated to determine the statistical significance. Sensitivity, specificity, efficiency and the predictive values of AFI at a cut off point of < 5 cm as a predictor of adverse outcome at birth (Apgar score of < 6 at 5 minutes of birth) in high-risk pregnancy were calculated. Only 8 neonates of 50 women with low AFI had low Apgar score. Similarly, 6 neonates of 50 women with normal AFI had poor Apgar score. The diagnostic sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value and efficiency of AFI as test were 57.1%, 51.3%, 16%, 88% and 52% respectively. Low AFI is a poor predictor of adverse outcome for high-risk term patients. AFI is not a good screening test for high-risk pregnant women at term for birth of an infant with low Apgar score. (author)

  9. Recurrent epistaxis: predicting risk of 30-day readmission, derivation and validation of RHINO-ooze score. (United States)

    Addison, A; Paul, C; Kuo, R; Lamyman, A; Martinez-Devesa, P; Hettige, R


    To derive and validate a predictive scoring tool (RHINO-ooze score) with good sensitivity and specificity in identifying patients with epistaxis at high risk of 30 day readmission and to enable risk stratification for possible definitive intervention. Using medical databases, we searched for factors influencing recurrent epistaxis. The information ascertained together with our analysis of retrospective data on patients admitted with epistaxis between October 2013 and September 2014, was used as the derivation cohort to develop the predictive scoring model (RHINO-ooze score). The tool was validated by performing statistical analysis on the validation cohort of patients admitted with epistaxis between October 2014 and October 2015. Multiple linear regressions with backwards elimination was used to derive the predictive model. The area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity and specificity were calculated. 834 admissions were encountered within the study period. Using the derivative cohort (n= 302) the RHINO-ooze score with a maximum score of 8 from five variables (Recent admission, Haemorrhage point unidentified, Increasing age over 70, posterior Nasal packing, Oral anticoagulant) was developed. The RHINO-ooze score had a chi-square value of 99.72 with a significance level of smaller than 0.0001 and hence an overall good model fit. Comparison between the derivative and validation groups revealed similar rates of 30-day readmission between the cohorts. The sensitivity and specificity of predicting 30-day readmission in high risk patients with recurrent epistaxis (RHINO-ooze score equal/larger than 6) was 81% and 84%, respectively. The RHINO-ooze scoring tool demonstrates good specificity and sensitivity in predicting the risk of 30 day readmission in patients with epistaxis and can be used as an adjunct to clinical decision making with regards to timing of operative intervention in order to reduce readmission rates.

  10. Risk-Assessment Score and Patient Optimization as Cost Predictors for Ventral Hernia Repair. (United States)

    Saleh, Sherif; Plymale, Margaret A; Davenport, Daniel L; Roth, John Scott


    Ventral hernia repair (VHR) is associated with complications that significantly increase healthcare costs. This study explores the associations between hospital costs for VHR and surgical complication risk-assessment scores, need for cardiac or pulmonary evaluation, and smoking or obesity counseling. An IRB-approved retrospective study of patients having undergone open VHR over 3 years was performed. Ventral Hernia Risk Score (VHRS) for surgical site occurrence and surgical site infection, and the Ventral Hernia Working Group grade were calculated for each case. Also recorded were preoperative cardiology or pulmonary evaluations, smoking cessation and weight reduction counseling, and patient goal achievement. Hospital costs were obtained from the cost accounting system for the VHR hospitalization stratified by major clinical cost drivers. Univariate regression analyses were used to compare the predictive power of the risk scores. Multivariable analysis was performed to develop a cost prediction model. The mean cost of index VHR hospitalization was $20,700. Total and operating room costs correlated with increasing CDC wound class, VHRS surgical site infection score, VHRS surgical site occurrence score, American Society of Anesthesiologists class, and Ventral Hernia Working Group (all p variance in costs (p optimization significantly reduced direct and operating room costs (p < 0.05). Cardiac evaluation was associated with increased costs. Ventral hernia repair hospital costs are more accurately predicted by CDC wound class than VHR risk scores. A straightforward 6-factor model predicted most cost variation for VHR. Copyright © 2018 American College of Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Use and Customization of Risk Scores for Predicting Cardiovascular Events Using Electronic Health Record Data. (United States)

    Wolfson, Julian; Vock, David M; Bandyopadhyay, Sunayan; Kottke, Thomas; Vazquez-Benitez, Gabriela; Johnson, Paul; Adomavicius, Gediminas; O'Connor, Patrick J


    Clinicians who are using the Framingham Risk Score (FRS) or the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Pooled Cohort Equations (PCE) to estimate risk for their patients based on electronic health data (EHD) face 4 questions. (1) Do published risk scores applied to EHD yield accurate estimates of cardiovascular risk? (2) Are FRS risk estimates, which are based on data that are up to 45 years old, valid for a contemporary patient population seeking routine care? (3) Do the PCE make the FRS obsolete? (4) Does refitting the risk score using EHD improve the accuracy of risk estimates? Data were extracted from the EHD of 84 116 adults aged 40 to 79 years who received care at a large healthcare delivery and insurance organization between 2001 and 2011. We assessed calibration and discrimination for 4 risk scores: published versions of FRS and PCE and versions obtained by refitting models using a subset of the available EHD. The published FRS was well calibrated (calibration statistic K=9.1, miscalibration ranging from 0% to 17% across risk groups), but the PCE displayed modest evidence of miscalibration (calibration statistic K=43.7, miscalibration from 9% to 31%). Discrimination was similar in both models (C-index=0.740 for FRS, 0.747 for PCE). Refitting the published models using EHD did not substantially improve calibration or discrimination. We conclude that published cardiovascular risk models can be successfully applied to EHD to estimate cardiovascular risk; the FRS remains valid and is not obsolete; and model refitting does not meaningfully improve the accuracy of risk estimates. © 2017 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

  12. The cost-effectiveness of using chronic kidney disease risk scores to screen for early-stage chronic kidney disease. (United States)

    Yarnoff, Benjamin O; Hoerger, Thomas J; Simpson, Siobhan K; Leib, Alyssa; Burrows, Nilka R; Shrestha, Sundar S; Pavkov, Meda E


    Better treatment during early stages of chronic kidney disease (CKD) may slow progression to end-stage renal disease and decrease associated complications and medical costs. Achieving early treatment of CKD is challenging, however, because a large fraction of persons with CKD are unaware of having this disease. Screening for CKD is one important method for increasing awareness. We examined the cost-effectiveness of identifying persons for early-stage CKD screening (i.e., screening for moderate albuminuria) using published CKD risk scores. We used the CKD Health Policy Model, a micro-simulation model, to simulate the cost-effectiveness of using CKD two published risk scores by Bang et al. and Kshirsagar et al. to identify persons in the US for CKD screening with testing for albuminuria. Alternative risk score thresholds were tested (0.20, 0.15, 0.10, 0.05, and 0.02) above which persons were assigned to receive screening at alternative intervals (1-, 2-, and 5-year) for follow-up screening if the first screening was negative. We examined incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs), incremental lifetime costs divided by incremental lifetime QALYs, relative to the next higher screening threshold to assess cost-effectiveness. Cost-effective scenarios were determined as those with ICERs less than $50,000 per QALY. Among the cost-effective scenarios, the optimal scenario was determined as the one that resulted in the highest lifetime QALYs. ICERs ranged from $8,823 per QALY to $124,626 per QALY for the Bang et al. risk score and $6,342 per QALY to $405,861 per QALY for the Kshirsagar et al. risk score. The Bang et al. risk score with a threshold of 0.02 and 2-year follow-up screening was found to be optimal because it had an ICER less than $50,000 per QALY and resulted in the highest lifetime QALYs. This study indicates that using these CKD risk scores may allow clinicians to cost-effectively identify a broader population for CKD screening with testing for albuminuria

  13. [The scoring system for the risk-stratification in patients with the antiphospholipid syndrome]. (United States)

    Oku, Kenji


      Antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) is a clinical disorder characterized by thrombosis and/or pregnancy morbidity in the persistence of the pathogenic autoantibodies, the antiphospholipid antibodies (aPL). Recurernt thrombosis is often observed in patients with APS which requires persistent prophylaxis. However, an uniform prophylactic treatment for APS patients is inadequate and stratification of the thrombotic risks is important as aPL are prevalently observed in other various diseases or elderly population. It is previously known that the multiple positivity or high titre of aPL correlate to the thrombotic events. To progress the stratification of the thrombotic risks and to quantitatively analyze them, antiphospholipid score (aPL-S) and the Global Anti-Phospholipid Syndrome Score (GAPSS) were defined as the scoring-systems. Both of these scoring-systems were raised from the large patient cohort data and either aPL profile classified in detail (aPL-S) or simplified aPL profile with classical thrombotic risk factors (GAPSS) were put into scoring system. They have shown a degree of accuracy in identifying high-risk APS patients, especially those at a high risk of thrombosis. However, there are several areas requiring improvement, or at least that clinicians should be aware of, before these instruments are applied in clinical practice. One such issue is standardisation of the aPL tests, including general testing of phosphatidylserine dependent antiprothrombin antibodies (aPS/PT).

  14. Relationship between Cardiovascular Risk Score and Traditional and Nontraditional Cardiometabolic Parameters in Obese Adolescent Girls

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Klisic Aleksandra


    Full Text Available Background: Since the cardiovascular (CV risk score in the young population, children and adolescents, is underestimated, especially in developing countries such as Montenegro, where a strong interaction exists between the genetically conditioned CV risk and environmental factors, the purpose of this study was to estimate CV risk in apparently healthy adolescent girls. Moreover, we aimed to test some new, emerging CV risk factors and their interaction with the traditional ones, such as obesity. Precisely, we aimed to assess the impact of low bilirubin levels, as a routine biochemical parameter, as an additional risk factor for atherosclerotic disease in the adult phase.

  15. Assessment of Diabetes Risk in an Adult Population Using Indian Diabetes Risk Score in an Urban Resettlement Colony of Delhi. (United States)

    Acharya, Anita Shankar; Singh, Anshu; Dhiman, Balraj


    Diabetes mellitus is one of the non-communicable diseases which has become a major global health problem whose prevalence is increasing worldwide and is expected to reach 4.4% by 2030. The risk of diabetes escalates with increase in the number of risk factors and their duration as well. The Indian Diabetic Risk Score (IDRS) is a simple, low cost, feasible tool for mass screening programme at the community level. To assess the risk score of diabetes among the study subjects using IDRS. A cross sectional survey was conducted on adults >30 years (n=580) on both gender in an urban resettlement colony of Delhi during December 2013 to March 2015. A Semi-structured interview schedule consisting of Socio-demographic characteristics, risk factor profile and Indian Diabetes Risk Score was used. Data was entered and analyzed in SPSS. Out of 580 subjects, 31 (5.3%) study subjects were not at risk of having diabetes, rest 94.5% were at moderate or high risk of diabetes.A statistically significant association of diabetes risk with marital status(p=0.0001), education(0.005),body mass index(0.049) and systolic blood pressure was seen.(p=0.006). More than 90% of the study subjects were at risk of having diabetes, hence screening is of utmost importance so that interventions can be initiated at an early stage.

  16. Unsupervised deep learning applied to breast density segmentation and mammographic risk scoring

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kallenberg, Michiel Gijsbertus J.; Petersen, Peter Kersten; Nielsen, Mads


    Mammographic risk scoring has commonly been automated by extracting a set of handcrafted features from mammograms, and relating the responses directly or indirectly to breast cancer risk. We present a method that learns a feature hierarchy from unlabeled data. When the learned features are used...... as the input to a simple classifier, two different tasks can be addressed: i) breast density segmentation, and ii) scoring of mammographic texture. The proposed model learns features at multiple scales. To control the models capacity a novel sparsity regularizer is introduced that incorporates both lifetime...... and population sparsity. We evaluated our method on three different clinical datasets. Our state-of-the-art results show that the learned breast density scores have a very strong positive relationship with manual ones, and that the learned texture scores are predictive of breast cancer. The model is easy...

  17. Severe Spontaneous Echo Contrast/Auricolar Thrombosis in "Nonvalvular" AF: Value of Thromboembolic Risk Scores. (United States)

    Mascioli, Giosuè; Lucca, Elena; Michelotti, Federica; Alioto, Giusy; Santoro, Franco; Belli, Guido; Rota, Cristina; Ornago, Ombretta; Sirianni, Giovanni; Pulcini, Emanuela; Pennesi, Matteo; Savasta, Carlo; Russo, Rosario; Pitì, Antonino


    Patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) have an increased thromboembolic risk that can be estimated with risk scores and sometimes require oral anticoagulation therapy (OAT). Despite correct anticoagulation, some patients still develop left atrial spontaneous echo contrast (SEC) or thrombosis. The value of traditional risk scores (R 2 CHADS 2 , CHADS 2 , and CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc) in predicting such events remains controversial. The aim of our study was to explore variables linked to severe SEC or atrial thrombosis and evaluate the performance of traditional risk scores in identifying these patients. In order to do this, we retrospectively analyzed 568 patients with nonvalvular nonparoxysmal AF who underwent electrical cardioversion from January 2011 to December 2016 after OAT for a minimum of 4 weeks. A transesophageal echocardiogram was performed in 265 patients for various indications, and 24 exhibited left atrial SEC or thrombosis. Female gender, history of heart failure or left ventricular ejection fraction 1 mg/dL) of C-reactive protein (CRP) were independently associated with left atrial SEC/thrombosis. A score composed by these factors (denominated HIS [Heart Failure, Inflammation, and female Sex]) showed a sensitivity of 79% and a specificity of 60% (area under receiver operating characteristic curve 0.695, P = 0.002) in identifying patients with a positive transesophageal echo; traditional risk scores did not perform as well. In patients with persistent AF and suboptimal anticoagulation, a risk score composed by history of heart failure, high CRP, and female gender identifies patients at high risk of left atrial SEC/thrombosis when its value is >1. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  18. Limitations of the Parsonnet score for measuring risk stratified mortality in the north west of England (United States)

    Wynne-Jones, K; Jackson, M; Grotte, G; Bridgewater, B; North, W


    OBJECTIVE—To study the use of the Parsonnet score to predict mortality following adult cardiac surgery.
DESIGN—Prospective study.
SETTING—All centres performing adult cardiac surgery in the north west of England.
SUBJECTS—8210 patients undergoing surgery between April 1997 and March 1999.
MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES—Risk factors and in-hospital mortality were recorded according to agreed definitions. Ten per cent of cases from each centre were selected at random for validation. A Parsonnet score was derived for each patient and its predictive ability was studied.
RESULTS—Data collection was complete. The operative mortality was 3.5% (95% confidence interval 3.1% to 3.9%), ranging from 2.7% to 3.8% across the centres. On validation, the incidence of discrepancies ranged from 0% to 13% for the different risk factors. The predictive ability of the Parsonnet score measured by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.74. The mean Parsonnet score for the region was 7.0, giving an observed to expected mortality ratio of 0.51 (range 0.4 to 0.64 across the centres). A new predictive model was derived from the data by multivariate analysis which includes nine objective risk factors, all with a significant association with mortality, which highlights some of the deficits of the Parsonnet score.
CONCLUSIONS—Risk stratified mortality data were collected on 100% of patients undergoing adult cardiac surgery in two years within a defined geographical region and were used to set an audit standard. Problems with the Parsonnet score of subjectivity, inclusion of many items not associated with mortality, and the overprediction of mortality have been highlighted.

Keywords: risk stratification; cardiac surgery; Parsonnet score; audit PMID:10862595

  19. Improvement of Risk Prediction After Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement by Combining Frailty With Conventional Risk Scores. (United States)

    Schoenenberger, Andreas W; Moser, André; Bertschi, Dominic; Wenaweser, Peter; Windecker, Stephan; Carrel, Thierry; Stuck, Andreas E; Stortecky, Stefan


    This study sought to evaluate whether frailty improves mortality prediction in combination with the conventional scores. European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) or Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) score have not been evaluated in combined models with frailty for mortality prediction after transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR). This prospective cohort comprised 330 consecutive TAVR patients ≥70 years of age. Conventional scores and a frailty index (based on assessment of cognition, mobility, nutrition, and activities of daily living) were evaluated to predict 1-year all-cause mortality using Cox proportional hazards regression (providing hazard ratios [HRs] with confidence intervals [CIs]) and measures of test performance (providing likelihood ratio [LR] chi-square test statistic and C-statistic [CS]). All risk scores were predictive of the outcome (EuroSCORE, HR: 1.90 [95% CI: 1.45 to 2.48], LR chi-square test statistic 19.29, C-statistic 0.67; STS score, HR: 1.51 [95% CI: 1.21 to 1.88], LR chi-square test statistic 11.05, C-statistic 0.64; frailty index, HR: 3.29 [95% CI: 1.98 to 5.47], LR chi-square test statistic 22.28, C-statistic 0.66). A combination of the frailty index with either EuroSCORE (LR chi-square test statistic 38.27, C-statistic 0.72) or STS score (LR chi-square test statistic 28.71, C-statistic 0.68) improved mortality prediction. The frailty index accounted for 58.2% and 77.6% of the predictive information in the combined model with EuroSCORE and STS score, respectively. Net reclassification improvement and integrated discrimination improvement confirmed that the added frailty index improved risk prediction. This is the first study showing that the assessment of frailty significantly enhances prediction of 1-year mortality after TAVR in combined risk models with conventional risk scores and relevantly contributes to this improvement. Copyright © 2018 American College of Cardiology Foundation

  20. Genetic Risk Score Modelling for Disease Progression in New-Onset Type 1 Diabetes Patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brorsson, Caroline A; Nielsen, Lotte B; Andersen, Marie-Louise


    Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified over 40 type 1 diabetes risk loci. The clinical impact of these loci on β-cell function during disease progression is unknown. We aimed at testing whether a genetic risk score could predict glycemic control and residual β-cell function in type...... 1 diabetes (T1D). As gene expression may represent an intermediate phenotype between genetic variation and disease, we hypothesized that genes within T1D loci which are expressed in islets and transcriptionally regulated by proinflammatory cytokines would be the best predictors of disease...... constructed a genetic risk score based on the cumulative number of risk alleles carried in children with newly diagnosed T1D. With each additional risk allele carried, HbA1c levels increased significantly within first year after diagnosis. Network and gene ontology (GO) analyses revealed that several...

  1. Dietary score and the risk of oral cancer: a case-control study in southeast China. (United States)

    Chen, Fa; Yan, Lingjun; Lin, Lisong; Liu, Fengqiong; Qiu, Yu; Wang, Jing; Wu, Junfeng; Liu, Fangping; Huang, Jiangfeng; Cai, Lin; He, Baochang


    This study aims to develop a simple dietary score to comprehensively evaluate the role of diet in the risk of oral cancer. A case-control study including 930 oral cancer cases and 2667 frequency-matched controls was performed in Fujian, China. Unconditional logistic regression model was used to estimate the effects of dietary factors on oral cancer. After adjustment for potential confounders, less intake of domestic meat (oral cancer. Then these variables were incorporated to establish dietary risk score. Assessed by the receiver operating characteristic curve, the score showed a satisfactory discriminatory capacity, with an area under the curve of 0.682 (95% CI: 0.662-0.702). Moreover, the score was positively associated with the risk of oral cancer as quartiles, and the association was apparently stronger in tobacco smokers or alcohol drinkers. Additionally, there were significant multiplicative interactions between the score and tobacco smoking or alcohol drinking for oral cancer. In the present study, a convenient dietary score with satisfactory discriminatory capacity was developed to assess the collected effect of dietary factors on oral cancer, which could provide a new strategy for the prevention of oral cancer through changing in dietary habits.

  2. Comparison of Risk Scores for Prediction of Complications following Aortic Valve Replacement. (United States)

    Wang, Tom Kai Ming; Choi, David Hyun-Min; Haydock, David; Gamble, Greg; Stewart, Ralph; Ruygrok, Peter


    Risk models play an important role in stratification of patients for cardiac surgery, but their prognostic utilities for post-operative complications are rarely studied. We compared the EuroSCORE, EuroSCORE II, Society of Thoracic Surgeon's (STS) Score and an Australasian model (Aus-AVR Score) for predicting morbidities after aortic valve replacement (AVR), and also evaluated seven STS complications models in this context. We retrospectively calculated risk scores for 620 consecutive patients undergoing isolated AVR at Auckland City Hospital during 2005-2012, assessing their discrimination and calibration for post-operative complications. Amongst mortality scores, the EuroSCORE was the best at discriminating stroke (c-statistic 0.845); the EuroSCORE II at deep sternal wound infection (c=0.748); and the STS Score at composite morbidity or mortality (c=0.666), renal failure (c=0.634), ventilation>24 hours (c=0.732), return to theatre (c=0.577) and prolonged hospital stay >14 days post-operatively (c=0.707). The individual STS complications models had a marginally higher c-statistic (c=0.634-0.846) for all complications except mediastinitis, and had good calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow test P-value 0.123-0.915) for all complications. The STS Score was best overall at discriminating post-operative complications and their composite for AVR. All STS complications models except for deep sternal wound infection had good discrimination and calibration for post-operative complications. Copyright © 2014 Australian and New Zealand Society of Cardiac and Thoracic Surgeons (ANZSCTS) and the Cardiac Society of Australia and New Zealand (CSANZ). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Validation of the EBMT risk score in chronic myeloid leukemia in Brazil and allogeneic transplant outcome. (United States)

    De Souza, Carmino Antonio; Vigorito, Afonso Celso; Ruiz, Milton Artur; Nucci, Márcio; Dulley, Frederico Luiz; Funcke, Vaneusa; Tabak, Daniel; Azevedo, Alexandre Mello; Byington, Rita; Macedo, Maria Cristina; Saboya, Rosaura; Penteado Aranha, Francisco José; Oliveira, Gislaine Barbosa; Zulli, Roberto; Martins Miranda, Eliana Cristina; Azevedo, Wellington Moraes; Lodi, Fernanda Maria; Voltarelli, Júlio Cesar; Simões, Belinda Pinto; Colturato, Vergílio; De Souza, Mair Pedro; Silla, Lúcia; Bittencourt, Henrique; Piron-Ruiz, Lilian; Maiolino, Angelo; Gratwohl, Alois; Pasquini, Ricardo


    The management of chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) has changed radically since the introduction of imatinib therapy. The decision of whether to offer a patient a hematopoietic stem cell transplant (HSCT) must be based on the probability of success of the procedure. The aim of this retrospective analysis of 1,084 CML patients who received an allogeneic HSCT in 10 Brazilian Centers between February 1983 and March 2003 was to validate the EBMT risk score. The study population comprised 647 (60%) males and 437 (40%) females, with a median age of 32 years old (range 1 - 59); 898 (83%) were in chronic phase, 146 (13%) were in accelerated phase and 40 (4%) were in blast crisis; 151 (14%) were younger than 20 years old, 620 (57%) were between 20 and 40 and 313 (29%) were older than 40; 1,025 (94%) received an HLA fully matched sibling transplant and only 59 (6%) received an unrelated transplant. In 283 cases (26%) a male recipient received a graft from a female donor. The interval from diagnosis to transplantation was less than 12 months in 223 (21%) cases and greater in 861 (79%). The overall survival, disease-free survival, transplant-related mortality and relapse incidence were 49%, 50%, 45% and 25%, respectively. Of the 1084 patients, 179 (17%) had a risk score of 0 or 1, 397 (37%) had a score of 2, 345 (32%) had a score of 3, 135 (12%) had a score of 4 and 28 (2%) a score of 5 or 6. The overall survival (OS) rate in patients with risk scores 0-1 and 2 was similar (58% and 55%, respectively) but significantly better than that in patients with scores 3 or more (score 3 - 44%, 4 - 36 % and 5-6 - 27%, respectively) pp<0.001). Disease-free survival (DFS) and transplant related mortality (TRM) in a patients with a score of 3 or more were 46% and 49%, respectively and the relapse rate beyond score 5-6 was 77%. Disease status had a negative impact on all outcomes (OS, DFS, TRM, and relapse). The OS rate for male recipients of a graft from a female donor was 40% compared to 52

  4. External validation of scoring systems in risk stratification of upper gastrointestinal bleeding. (United States)

    Anchu, Anna Cherian; Mohsina, Subair; Sureshkumar, Sathasivam; Mahalakshmy, T; Kate, Vikram


    The aim of this study was to externally validate the four commonly used scoring systems in the risk stratification of patients with upper gastrointestinal bleed (UGIB). Patients of UGIB who underwent endoscopy within 24 h of presentation were stratified prospectively using the pre-endoscopy Rockall score (PRS) >0, complete Rockall score (CRS) >2, Glasgow Blatchford bleeding scores (GBS) >3, and modified GBS (m-GBS) >3 scores. Patients were followed up to 30 days. Prognostic accuracy of the scores was done by comparing areas under curve (AUC) in terms of overall risk stratification, re-bleeding, mortality, need for intervention, and length of hospitalization. One hundred and seventy-five patients were studied. All four scores performed better in the overall risk stratification on AUC [PRS = 0.566 (CI: 0.481-0.651; p-0.043)/CRS = 0.712 (CI: 0.634-0.790); p0.001); m-GBS = 0.802 (CI: 0.734-0.871; pbleed [AUC-0.679 (CI: 0.579-0.780; p = 0.003)]. All the scoring systems except PRS were found to be significantly better in detecting 30-day mortality with a high AUC (CRS = 0.798; p-0.042)/GBS = 0.833; p-0.023); m-GBS = 0.816; p-0.031). All four scores demonstrated significant accuracy in the risk stratification of non-variceal patients; however, only GBS and m-GBS were significant in variceal etiology. Higher cutoff scores achieved better sensitivity/specificity [RS > 0 (50/60.8), CRS > 1 (87.5/50.6), GBS > 7 (88.5/63.3), m-GBS > 7(82.3/72.6)] in the risk stratification. GBS and m-GBS appear to be more valid in risk stratification of UGIB patients in this region. Higher cutoff values achieved better predictive accuracy.

  5. Clinical audit in gynecological cancer surgery: development of a risk scoring system to predict adverse events. (United States)

    Kondalsamy-Chennakesavan, Srinivas; Bouman, Chantal; De Jong, Suzanne; Sanday, Karen; Nicklin, Jim; Land, Russell; Obermair, Andreas


    Advanced gynecological surgery undertaken in a specialized gynecologic oncology unit may be associated with significant perioperative morbidity. Validated risk prediction models are available for general surgical specialties but currently not for gynecological cancer surgery. The objective of this study was to evaluate risk factors for adverse events (AEs) of patients treated for suspected or proven gynecological cancer and to develop a clinical risk score (RS) to predict such AEs. AEs were prospectively recorded and matched with demographical, clinical and histopathological data on 369 patients who had an abdominal or laparoscopic procedure for proven or suspected gynecological cancer at a tertiary gynecological cancer center. Stepwise multiple logistic regression was used to determine the best predictors of AEs. For the risk score (RS), the coefficients from the model were scaled using a factor of 2 and rounded to the nearest integer to derive the risk points. Sum of all the risk points form the RS. Ninety-five patients (25.8%) had at least one AE. Twenty-nine (7.9%) and 77 (20.9%) patients experienced intra- and postoperative AEs respectively with 11 patients (3.0%) experiencing both. The independent predictors for any AE were complexity of the surgical procedure, elevated SGOT (serum glutamic oxaloacetic transaminase, > or /=35 U/L), higher ASA scores and overweight. The risk score can vary from 0 to 14. The risk for developing any AE is described by the formula 100 / (1 + e((3.697 - (RS /2)))). RS allows for quantification of the risk for AEs. Risk factors are generally not modifiable with the possible exception of obesity.

  6. Support Vector Hazards Machine: A Counting Process Framework for Learning Risk Scores for Censored Outcomes. (United States)

    Wang, Yuanjia; Chen, Tianle; Zeng, Donglin


    Learning risk scores to predict dichotomous or continuous outcomes using machine learning approaches has been studied extensively. However, how to learn risk scores for time-to-event outcomes subject to right censoring has received little attention until recently. Existing approaches rely on inverse probability weighting or rank-based regression, which may be inefficient. In this paper, we develop a new support vector hazards machine (SVHM) approach to predict censored outcomes. Our method is based on predicting the counting process associated with the time-to-event outcomes among subjects at risk via a series of support vector machines. Introducing counting processes to represent time-to-event data leads to a connection between support vector machines in supervised learning and hazards regression in standard survival analysis. To account for different at risk populations at observed event times, a time-varying offset is used in estimating risk scores. The resulting optimization is a convex quadratic programming problem that can easily incorporate non-linearity using kernel trick. We demonstrate an interesting link from the profiled empirical risk function of SVHM to the Cox partial likelihood. We then formally show that SVHM is optimal in discriminating covariate-specific hazard function from population average hazard function, and establish the consistency and learning rate of the predicted risk using the estimated risk scores. Simulation studies show improved prediction accuracy of the event times using SVHM compared to existing machine learning methods and standard conventional approaches. Finally, we analyze two real world biomedical study data where we use clinical markers and neuroimaging biomarkers to predict age-at-onset of a disease, and demonstrate superiority of SVHM in distinguishing high risk versus low risk subjects.

  7. Where to Sit? Type of Sitting Matters for the Framingham Cardiovascular Risk Score

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katja Borodulin


    Full Text Available Background: Current evidence on associations of type-specific sedentary behavior with cardiovascular disease (CVD is limited to mainly screen-time sedentary behavior (SB. We aimed to study the associations of type-specific and total time spent sitting with the Framingham 10-year cardiovascular disease risk score (Framingham score in Finnish adults. Methods: Data comprise the National FINRISK 2007 and 2012 health examination surveys with 10,185 participants aged 25-74 years, apparently free of CVD. Participants reported average daily time spent sitting in different locations: work-related sitting, at home in front of television (TV, at home in front of computer, in a vehicle, and elsewhere. Total SB time was calculated from these context-specific self-reports. Accelerometer-based sedentary time was assessed in 988 FINRISK 2012 participants. Framingham score was calculated using information on blood pressure and its medication, cholesterol levels, age, diabetes status, and smoking. Analyses were adjusted for age, study year, education, employment status, leisure time physical activity, and body mass index. Results: Out of several type-specific sitting behaviors, only TV sitting showed systematic associations with the Framingham score in both genders. The lowest Framingham risk was found for TV sitting from 6 minutes to less than 1 hour daily. Of other types of sitting, computer sitting was inversely associated with the Framingham risk in men only. Total self-reported sitting time did not show significant associations with the Framingham score, but instead higher objectively assessed sedentary time showed higher Framingham risk in men. Conclusions: TV sitting showed most systematic associations with CVD risk score. This suggests that of all types of SB, reducing TV sitting should be targeted for reducing CVD risk.

  8. Physical activity, stress, and metabolic risk score in 8- to 18-year-old boys. (United States)

    Holmes, Megan E; Eisenmann, Joey C; Ekkekakis, Panteleimon; Gentile, Douglas


    We examined whether physical activity modifies the relationship between stress and the metabolic risk score in 8- to 18-year-old males (n = 37). Physical activity (PA) and television (TV)/videogame (VG) use were assessed via accelerometer and questionnaire, respectively. Stress was determined from self-report measures. A metabolic risk score (MRS) was created by summing age-standardized residuals for waist circumference, mean arterial pressure, glycosylated hemoglobin, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol. Correlations between PA and MRS were low (r adolescents.

  9. Western Dietary Pattern Increases, and Prudent Dietary Pattern Decreases, Risk of Incident Diverticulitis in a Prospective Cohort Study. (United States)

    Strate, Lisa L; Keeley, Brieze R; Cao, Yin; Wu, Kana; Giovannucci, Edward L; Chan, Andrew T


    Dietary fiber is implicated as a risk factor for diverticulitis. Analyses of dietary patterns may provide information on risk beyond those of individual foods or nutrients. We examined whether major dietary patterns are associated with risk of incident diverticulitis. We performed a prospective cohort study of 46,295 men who were free of diverticulitis and known diverticulosis in 1986 (baseline) using data from the Health Professionals Follow-Up Study. Each study participant completed a detailed medical and dietary questionnaire at baseline. We sent supplemental questionnaires to men reporting incident diverticulitis on biennial follow-up questionnaires. We assessed diet every 4 years using a validated food frequency questionnaire. Western (high in red meat, refined grains, and high-fat dairy) and prudent (high in fruits, vegetables, and whole grains) dietary patterns were identified using principal component analysis. Follow-up time accrued from the date of return of the baseline questionnaire in 1986 until a diagnosis of diverticulitis, diverticulosis or diverticular bleeding; death; or December 31, 2012. The primary end point was incident diverticulitis. During 894,468 person years of follow-up, we identified 1063 incident cases of diverticulitis. After adjustment for other risk factors, men in the highest quintile of Western dietary pattern score had a multivariate hazard ratio of 1.55 (95% CI, 1.20-1.99) for diverticulitis compared to men in the lowest quintile. High vs low prudent scores were associated with decreased risk of diverticulitis (multivariate hazard ratio, 0.74; 95% CI, 0.60-0.91). The association between dietary patterns and diverticulitis was predominantly attributable to intake of fiber and red meat. In a prospective cohort study of 46,295 men, a Western dietary pattern was associated with increased risk of diverticulitis, and a prudent pattern was associated with decreased risk. These data can guide dietary interventions for the prevention of

  10. 75 FR 54020 - Federal Housing Administration Risk Management Initiatives: New Loan-to-Value and Credit Score... (United States)


    ... Housing Administration Risk Management Initiatives: New Loan-to-Value and Credit Score Requirements AGENCY... acceptable risks of financial loss, not unacceptable risks.\\2\\ \\2\\ While the Federal Credit Reform Act of..., specific to each applicant. Lower credit scores indicate greater risk of default on any new credit extended...

  11. Polygenic Risk Score for Alzheimer's Disease: Implications for Memory Performance and Hippocampal Volumes in Early Life. (United States)

    Axelrud, Luiza K; Santoro, Marcos L; Pine, Daniel S; Talarico, Fernanda; Gadelha, Ary; Manfro, Gisele G; Pan, Pedro M; Jackowski, Andrea; Picon, Felipe; Brietzke, Elisa; Grassi-Oliveira, Rodrigo; Bressan, Rodrigo A; Miguel, Eurípedes C; Rohde, Luis A; Hakonarson, Hakon; Pausova, Zdenka; Belangero, Sintia; Paus, Tomas; Salum, Giovanni A


    Alzheimer's disease is a heritable neurodegenerative disorder in which early-life precursors may manifest in cognition and brain structure. The authors evaluate this possibility by examining, in youths, associations among polygenic risk score for Alzheimer's disease, cognitive abilities, and hippocampal volume. Participants were children 6-14 years of age in two Brazilian cities, constituting the discovery (N=364) and replication samples (N=352). As an additional replication, data from a Canadian sample (N=1,029), with distinct tasks, MRI protocol, and genetic risk, were included. Cognitive tests quantified memory and executive function. Reading and writing abilities were assessed by standardized tests. Hippocampal volumes were derived from the Multiple Automatically Generated Templates (MAGeT) multi-atlas segmentation brain algorithm. Genetic risk for Alzheimer's disease was quantified using summary statistics from the International Genomics of Alzheimer's Project. Analyses showed that for the Brazilian discovery sample, each one-unit increase in z-score for Alzheimer's polygenic risk score significantly predicted a 0.185 decrement in z-score for immediate recall and a 0.282 decrement for delayed recall. Findings were similar for the Brazilian replication sample (immediate and delayed recall, β=-0.259 and β=-0.232, both significant). Quantile regressions showed lower hippocampal volumes bilaterally for individuals with high polygenic risk scores. Associations fell short of significance for the Canadian sample. Genetic risk for Alzheimer's disease may affect early-life cognition and hippocampal volumes, as shown in two independent samples. These data support previous evidence that some forms of late-life dementia may represent developmental conditions with roots in childhood. This result may vary depending on a sample's genetic risk and may be specific to some types of memory tasks.

  12. Recalibration of the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events risk score in a multiethnic Asian population. (United States)

    Chan, Mark Y; Shah, Bimal R; Gao, Fei; Sim, Ling Ling; Chua, Terrance; Tan, Huay Cheem; Yeo, Tiong Cheng; Ong, Hean Yee; Foo, David; Goh, Ping Ping; Surrun, Soondal K; Pieper, Karen S; Granger, Christopher B; Koh, Tian Hai; Salim, Agus; Tai, E Shyong


    Acute myocardial infarction (AMI) is a leading cause of mortality in Asia. However, quantitative risk scores to predict mortality after AMI were developed without the participation of Asian countries. We evaluated the performance of the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) in-hospital mortality risk score, directly and after recalibration, in a large Singaporean cohort representing 3 major Asian ethnicities. The GRACE cohort included 11,389 patients, predominantly of European descent, hospitalized for AMI or unstable angina from 2002 to 2003. The Singapore cohort included 10,100 Chinese, 3,005 Malay, and 2,046 Indian patients hospitalized for AMI from 2002 to 2005.Using the original GRACE score, predicted in-hospital mortality was 2.4% (Chinese), 2.0% (Malay), and 1.6% (Indian). However, observed in-hospital mortality was much greater at 9.8% (Chinese), 7.6% (Malay), and 6.4% (Indian). The c statistic for Chinese, Malays, and Indians was 0.86, 0.86, and 0.84, respectively, and the Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic was 250, 56, and 41, respectively. Recalibration of the GRACE score, using the mean-centered constants derived from the Singapore cohort, did not change the c statistic but substantially improved the Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic to 90, 24, and 18, respectively. The recalibrated GRACE score predicted in-hospital mortality as follows: 7.7% (Chinese), 6.0% (Malay), and 5.2% (Indian). In this large cohort of 3 major Asian ethnicities, the original GRACE score, derived from populations outside Asia, underestimated in-hospital mortality after AMI. Recalibration improved risk estimation substantially and may help adapt externally developed risk scores for local practice. Copyright © 2011 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Fall Risk Score at the Time of Discharge Predicts Readmission Following Total Joint Arthroplasty. (United States)

    Ravi, Bheeshma; Nan, Zhang; Schwartz, Adam J; Clarke, Henry D


    Readmission among Medicare recipients is a leading driver of healthcare expenditure. To date, most predictive tools are too coarse for direct clinical application. Our objective in this study is to determine if a pre-existing tool to identify patients at increased risk for inpatient falls, the Hendrich Fall Risk Score, could be used to accurately identify Medicare patients at increased risk for readmission following arthroplasty, regardless of whether the readmission was due to a fall. This study is a retrospective cohort study. We identified 2437 Medicare patients who underwent a primary elective total joint arthroplasty (TJA) of the hip or knee for osteoarthritis between 2011 and 2014. The Hendrich Fall Risk score was recorded for each patient preoperatively and postoperatively. Our main outcome measure was hospital readmission within 30 days of discharge. Of 2437 eligible TJA recipients, there were 226 (9.3%) patients who had a score ≥6. These patients were more likely to have an unplanned readmission (unadjusted odds ratio 2.84, 95% confidence interval 1.70-4.76, P 3 days (49.6% vs 36.6%, P = .0001), and were less likely to be sent home after discharge (20.8% vs 35.8%, P fall risk score after TJA is strongly associated with unplanned readmission. Application of this tool will allow hospitals to identify these patients and plan their discharge. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. The development of a risk score for unplanned removal of peripherally inserted central catheter in newborns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Priscila Costa


    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: to develop a risk score for unplanned removal of peripherally inserted central catheter in newborns.METHOD: prospective cohort study conducted in a neonatal intensive care unit with newborn babies who underwent 524 catheter insertions. The clinical characteristics of the newborn, catheter insertion and intravenous therapy were tested as risk factors for the unplanned removal of catheters using bivariate analysis. The risk score was developed using logistic regression. Accuracy was internally validated based on the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve.RESULTS: the risk score was made up of the following risk factors: transient metabolic disorders; previous insertion of catheter; use of a polyurethane double-lumen catheter; infusion of multiple intravenous solutions through a single-lumen catheter; and tip in a noncentral position. Newborns were classified into three categories of risk of unplanned removal: low (0 to 3 points, moderate (4 to 8 points, and high (≥ 9 points. Accuracy was 0.76.CONCLUSION: the adoption of evidence-based preventative strategies based on the classification and risk factors faced by the newborn is recommended to minimize the occurrence of unplanned removals.

  15. [Clinical scores for the risk of recurrent VTED and for the relationship cancer-VTED]. (United States)

    Junod, Alain


    Clinical scores related to the risk of recurrent venous thromboembolic disease (VTED), to the relationship between cancer and VTED (risk of development of VTED, risk of recurrent VTED, prognosis of pulmonary embolism) and to the risk of cancer following VTED are analysed and commented upon. Although they most often rely on appropriate methodology and are often based on a large number of subjects, they unfortunately provide information that is not necessarily useful for the care of patients. Their use should be considered only when positive impact studies are published.

  16. Prognostic implications of serial risk score assessments in patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension: a Registry to Evaluate Early and Long-Term Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension Disease Management (REVEAL) analysis. (United States)

    Benza, Raymond L; Miller, Dave P; Foreman, Aimee J; Frost, Adaani E; Badesch, David B; Benton, Wade W; McGoon, Michael D


    Data from the Registry to Evaluate Early and Long-Term Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension Disease Management (REVEAL) were used previously to develop a risk score calculator to predict 1-year survival. We evaluated prognostic implications of changes in the risk score and individual risk-score parameters over 12 months. Patients were grouped by decreased, unchanged, or increased risk score from enrollment to 12 months. Kaplan-Meier estimates of subsequent 1-year survival were made based on change in the risk score during the initial 12 months of follow-up. Cox regression was used for multivariable analysis. Of 2,529 patients in the analysis cohort, the risk score was decreased in 800, unchanged in 959, and increased in 770 at 12 months post-enrollment. Six parameters (functional class, systolic blood pressure, heart rate, 6-minute walk distance, brain natriuretic peptide levels, and pericardial effusion) each changed sufficiently over time to improve or worsen risk scores in ≥5% of patients. One-year survival estimates in the subsequent year were 93.7%, 90.3%, and 84.6% in patients with a decreased, unchanged, and increased risk score at 12 months, respectively. Change in risk score significantly predicted future survival, adjusting for risk at enrollment. Considering follow-up risk concurrently with risk at enrollment, follow-up risk was a much stronger predictor, although risk at enrollment maintained a significant effect on future survival. Changes in REVEAL risk scores occur in most patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension over a 12-month period and are predictive of survival. Thus, serial risk score assessments can identify changes in disease trajectory that may warrant treatment modifications. Copyright © 2015 International Society for Heart and Lung Transplantation. All rights reserved.

  17. A novel risk score to predict cardiovascular disease risk in national populations (Globorisk)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hajifathalian, Kaveh; Ueda, Peter; Lu, Yuan


    BACKGROUND: Treatment of cardiovascular risk factors based on disease risk depends on valid risk prediction equations. We aimed to develop, and apply in example countries, a risk prediction equation for cardiovascular disease (consisting here of coronary heart disease and stroke) that can be reca...

  18. Predictive value of updating Framingham risk scores with novel risk markers in the U.S. general population.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bart S Ferket

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: According to population-based cohort studies CT coronary calcium score (CTCS, carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT, high-sensitivity C- reactive protein (CRP, and ankle-brachial index (ABI are promising novel risk markers for improving cardiovascular risk assessment. Their impact in the U.S. general population is however uncertain. Our aim was to estimate the predictive value of four novel cardiovascular risk markers for the U.S. general population. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Risk profiles, CRP and ABI data of 3,736 asymptomatic subjects aged 40 or older from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES 2003-2004 exam were used along with predicted CTCS and cIMT values. For each subject, we calculated 10-year cardiovascular risks with and without each risk marker. Event rates adjusted for competing risks were obtained by microsimulation. We assessed the impact of updated 10-year risk scores by reclassification and C-statistics. In the study population (mean age 56±11 years, 48% male, 70% (80% were at low (<10%, 19% (14% at intermediate (≥10-<20%, and 11% (6% at high (≥20% 10-year CVD (CHD risk. Net reclassification improvement was highest after updating 10-year CVD risk with CTCS: 0.10 (95%CI 0.02-0.19. The C-statistic for 10-year CVD risk increased from 0.82 by 0.02 (95%CI 0.01-0.03 with CTCS. Reclassification occurred most often in those at intermediate risk: with CTCS, 36% (38% moved to low and 22% (30% to high CVD (CHD risk. Improvements with other novel risk markers were limited. CONCLUSIONS: Only CTCS appeared to have significant incremental predictive value in the U.S. general population, especially in those at intermediate risk. In future research, cost-effectiveness analyses should be considered for evaluating novel cardiovascular risk assessment strategies.

  19. Predictive Value of Updating Framingham Risk Scores with Novel Risk Markers in the U.S. General Population (United States)

    Hunink, M. G. Myriam; Agarwal, Isha; Kavousi, Maryam; Franco, Oscar H.; Steyerberg, Ewout W.; Max, Wendy; Fleischmann, Kirsten E.


    Background According to population-based cohort studies CT coronary calcium score (CTCS), carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT), high-sensitivity C- reactive protein (CRP), and ankle-brachial index (ABI) are promising novel risk markers for improving cardiovascular risk assessment. Their impact in the U.S. general population is however uncertain. Our aim was to estimate the predictive value of four novel cardiovascular risk markers for the U.S. general population. Methods and Findings Risk profiles, CRP and ABI data of 3,736 asymptomatic subjects aged 40 or older from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2003–2004 exam were used along with predicted CTCS and cIMT values. For each subject, we calculated 10-year cardiovascular risks with and without each risk marker. Event rates adjusted for competing risks were obtained by microsimulation. We assessed the impact of updated 10-year risk scores by reclassification and C-statistics. In the study population (mean age 56±11 years, 48% male), 70% (80%) were at low (risk. Net reclassification improvement was highest after updating 10-year CVD risk with CTCS: 0.10 (95%CI 0.02–0.19). The C-statistic for 10-year CVD risk increased from 0.82 by 0.02 (95%CI 0.01–0.03) with CTCS. Reclassification occurred most often in those at intermediate risk: with CTCS, 36% (38%) moved to low and 22% (30%) to high CVD (CHD) risk. Improvements with other novel risk markers were limited. Conclusions Only CTCS appeared to have significant incremental predictive value in the U.S. general population, especially in those at intermediate risk. In future research, cost-effectiveness analyses should be considered for evaluating novel cardiovascular risk assessment strategies. PMID:24558385

  20. A clinically useful risk-score for chronic kidney disease in HIV infection

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mocroft, Amanda; Lundgren, Jens; Ross, Michael


    baseline eGFR, female gender, lower CD4 nadir, hypertension, diabetes and cardiovascular disease predicted CKD and were included in the risk score (Figure 1). The incidence of CKD in those at low, medium and high risk was 0.8/1000 PYFU (95% CI 0.6-1.0), 5.6 (95% CI 4.5-6.7) and 37.4 (95% CI 34.......0-40.7) (Figure 1). The risk score showed good discrimination (Harrell's c statistic 0.92, 95% CI 0.90-0.93). The number needed to harm (NNTH) in patients starting ATV or LPV/r was 1395, 142 or 20, respectively, among those with low, medium or high risk. NNTH were 603, 61 and 9 for those with a low, medium...

  1. Validation of the German Diabetes Risk Score within a population-based representative cohort. (United States)

    Hartwig, S; Kuss, O; Tiller, D; Greiser, K H; Schulze, M B; Dierkes, J; Werdan, K; Haerting, J; Kluttig, A


    To validate the German Diabetes Risk Score within the population-based cohort of the Cardiovascular Disease - Living and Ageing in Halle (CARLA) study. The sample included 582 women and 719 men, aged 45-83 years, who did not have diabetes at baseline. The individual risk of every participant was calculated using the German Diabetes Risk Score, which was modified for 4 years of follow-up. Predicted probabilities and observed outcomes were compared using Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit tests and receiver-operator characteristic analyses. Changes in prediction power were investigated by expanding the German Diabetes Risk Score to include metabolic variables and by subgroup analyses. We found 58 cases of incident diabetes. The median 4-year probability of developing diabetes based on the German Diabetes Risk Score was 6.5%. The observed and predicted probabilities of developing diabetes were similar, although estimation was imprecise owing to the small number of cases, and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test returned a poor correlation (chi-squared = 55.3; P = 5.8*10⁻¹²). The area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.70 (95% CI 0.64-0.77), and after excluding participants ≥66 years old, the AUC increased to 0.77 (95% CI 0.70-0.84). Consideration of glycaemic diagnostic variables, in addition to self-reported diabetes, reduced the AUC to 0.65 (95% CI 0.58-0.71). A new model that included the German Diabetes Risk Score and blood glucose concentration (AUC 0.81; 95% CI 0.76-0.86) or HbA(1c) concentration (AUC 0.84; 95% CI 0.80-0.91) was found to peform better. Application of the German Diabetes Risk Score in the CARLA cohort did not reproduce the findings in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) Potsdam study, which may be explained by cohort differences and model overfit in the latter; however, a high score does provide an indication of increased risk of diabetes. © 2013 The Authors. Diabetic Medicine © 2013 Diabetes

  2. A modified risk assessment scoring system for post laser in situ keratomileusis ectasia in topographically normal patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Miraftab


    Conclusion: Our modified ectasia risk scoring system for patients with normal corneal topography can predict post LASIK ectasia risk with acceptable sensitivity and specificity. However, there are still unidentified risk factors for which further studies are required.

  3. Interaction of a genetic risk score with physical activity, physical inactivity, and body mass index in relation to venous thromboembolism risk. (United States)

    Kim, Jihye; Kraft, Peter; Hagan, Kaitlin A; Harrington, Laura B; Lindstroem, Sara; Kabrhel, Christopher


    Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is highly heritable. Physical activity, physical inactivity and body mass index (BMI) are also risk factors, but evidence of interaction between genetic and environmental risk factors is limited. Data on 2,134 VTE cases and 3,890 matched controls were obtained from the Nurses' Health Study (NHS), Nurses' Health Study II (NHS II), and Health Professionals Follow-up Study (HPFS). We calculated a weighted genetic risk score (wGRS) using 16 single nucleotide polymorphisms associated with VTE risk in published genome-wide association studies (GWAS). Data on three risk factors, physical activity (metabolic equivalent [MET] hours per week), physical inactivity (sitting hours per week) and BMI, were obtained from biennial questionnaires. VTE cases were incident since cohort inception; controls were matched to cases on age, cohort, and genotype array. Using conditional logistic regression, we assessed joint effects and interaction effects on both additive and multiplicative scales. We also ran models using continuous wGRS stratified by risk-factor categories. We observed a supra-additive interaction between wGRS and BMI. Having both high wGRS and high BMI was associated with a 3.4-fold greater risk of VTE (relative excess risk due to interaction = 0.69, p = 0.046). However, we did not find evidence for a multiplicative interaction with BMI. No interactions were observed for physical activity or inactivity. We found a synergetic effect between a genetic risk score and high BMI on the risk of VTE. Intervention efforts lowering BMI to decrease VTE risk may have particularly large beneficial effects among individuals with high genetic risk. © 2018 WILEY PERIODICALS, INC.

  4. Late-Onset Alzheimer's Disease Polygenic Risk Profile Score Predicts Hippocampal Function. (United States)

    Xiao, Ena; Chen, Qiang; Goldman, Aaron L; Tan, Hao Yang; Healy, Kaitlin; Zoltick, Brad; Das, Saumitra; Kolachana, Bhaskar; Callicott, Joseph H; Dickinson, Dwight; Berman, Karen F; Weinberger, Daniel R; Mattay, Venkata S


    We explored the cumulative effect of several late-onset Alzheimer's disease (LOAD) risk loci using a polygenic risk profile score (RPS) approach on measures of hippocampal function, cognition, and brain morphometry. In a sample of 231 healthy control subjects (19-55 years of age), we used an RPS to study the effect of several LOAD risk loci reported in a recent meta-analysis on hippocampal function (determined by its engagement with blood oxygen level-dependent functional magnetic resonance imaging during episodic memory) and several cognitive metrics. We also studied effects on brain morphometry in an overlapping sample of 280 subjects. There was almost no significant association of LOAD-RPS with cognitive or morphometric measures. However, there was a significant negative relationship between LOAD-RPS and hippocampal function (familywise error [small volume correction-hippocampal region of interest] p risk score based on APOE haplotype, and for a combined LOAD-RPS + APOE haplotype risk profile score (p risk genes on hippocampal function even in healthy volunteers. The effect of LOAD-RPS on hippocampal function in the relative absence of any effect on cognitive and morphometric measures is consistent with the reported temporal characteristics of LOAD biomarkers with the earlier manifestation of synaptic dysfunction before morphometric and cognitive changes. Copyright © 2017 Society of Biological Psychiatry. All rights reserved.

  5. Development of a Simple Clinical Risk Score for Early Prediction of Severe Dengue in Adult Patients.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ing-Kit Lee

    Full Text Available We aimed to develop and validate a risk score to aid in the early identification of laboratory-confirmed dengue patients at high risk of severe dengue (SD (i.e. severe plasma leakage with shock or respiratory distress, or severe bleeding or organ impairment. We retrospectively analyzed data of 1184 non-SD patients at hospital presentation and 69 SD patients before SD onset. We fit a logistic regression model using 85% of the population and converted the model coefficients to a numeric risk score. Subsequently, we validated the score using the remaining 15% of patients. Using the derivation cohort, two scoring algorithms for predicting SD were developed: models 1 (dengue illness ≤4 days and 2 (dengue illness >4 days. In model 1, we identified four variables: age ≥65 years, minor gastrointestinal bleeding, leukocytosis, and platelet count ≥100×109 cells/L. Model 1 (ranging from -2 to +6 points showed good discrimination between SD and non-SD, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC of 0.848 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.771-0.924. The optimal cutoff value for model 1 was 1 point, with a sensitivity and specificity for predicting SD of 70.3% and 90.6%, respectively. In model 2 (ranging from 0 to +3 points, significant predictors were age ≥65 years and leukocytosis. Model 2 showed an AUC of 0.859 (95% CI, 0.756-0.963, with an optimal cutoff value of 1 point (sensitivity, 80.3%; specificity, 85.8%. The median interval from hospital presentation to SD was 1 day. This finding underscores the importance of close monitoring, timely resuscitation of shock including intravenous fluid adjustment and early correction of dengue-related complications to prevent the progressive dengue severity. In the validation data, AUCs of 0.904 (95% CI, 0.825-0.983 and 0.917 (95% CI, 0.833-1.0 in models 1 and 2, respectively, were achieved. The observed SD rates (in both cohorts were 50% for those with a score of ≥2 points

  6. Skin autofluorescence as proxy of tissue AGE accumulation is dissociated from SCORE cardiovascular risk score, and remains so after 3 years. (United States)

    Tiessen, Ans H; Jager, Willemein; ter Bogt, Nancy C W; Beltman, Frank W; van der Meer, Klaas; Broer, Jan; Smit, Andries J


    Skin autofluorescence (SAF), as a proxy of AGE accumulation, is predictive of cardiovascular (CVD) complications in i.a. type 2 diabetes mellitus and renal failure, independently of most conventional CVD risk factors. The present exploratory substudy of the Groningen Overweight and Lifestyle (GOAL)-project addresses whether SAF is related to Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) risk estimation (% 10-year CVD-mortality risk) in overweight/obese persons in primary care, without diabetes/renal disease, and if after 3-year treatment of risk factors (change in, Δ) SAF is related to ΔSCORE. In a sample of 65 participants from the GOAL study, with a body mass index (BMI) >25-40 kg/m2, hypertension and/or dyslipidemia, but without diabetes/renal disease, SAF and CVD risk factors were measured at baseline, and after 3 years of lifestyle and pharmaceutical treatment. At baseline, the mean SCORE risk estimation was 3.1±2.6%, mean SAF 2.04±0.5AU. In multivariate analysis SAF was strongly related to age, but not to other risk factors/SCORE. After 3 years ΔSAF was 0.34±0.45 AU (phistory of CVD compared to 54 persons without CVD (p=0.002). Baseline and 3-year-Δ SAF are not related to (Δ)SCORE, or its components, except age, in the studied population. ΔSAF was negatively related to Δweight. As 3-year SAF was higher in persons with CVD, these results support a larger study on SAF to assess its contribution to conventional risk factors/SCORE in predicting CVD in overweight persons with low-intermediate cardiovascular risk.

  7. Genetic risk scores and number of autoantibodies in patients with rheumatoid arthritis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maehlen, Marthe T.; Olsen, Inge C.; Andreassen, Bettina K.; Viken, Marte K.; Jiang, Xia; Alfredsson, Lars; Kallberg, Henrik; Brynedal, Boel; Kurreeman, Fina; Daha, Nina; Toes, Rene; Zhernakova, Alexandra; Gutierrez-Achury, Javier; de Bakker, Paul I. W.; Martin, Javier; Teruel, Maria; Gonzalez-Gay, Miguel A.; Rodriguez-Rodriguez, Luis; Balsa, Alejandro; Uhlig, Till; Kvien, Tore K.; Lie, Benedicte A.

    Objective Certain HLA-DRB1 alleles and single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are associated with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Our objective was to examine the combined effect of these associated variants, calculated as a cumulative genetic risk score (GRS) on RA predisposition, as well as the number

  8. Genetic risk scores and number of autoantibodies in patients with rheumatoid arthritis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maehlen, Marthe T; Olsen, Inge C; Andreassen, Bettina K; Viken, Marte K; Jiang, Xia; Alfredsson, Lars; Källberg, Henrik; Brynedal, Boel; Kurreeman, Fina; Daha, Nina; Toes, Rene; Zhernakova, Alexandra; Gutierrez-Achury, Javier; de Bakker, Paul I W; Martin, Javier; Teruel, María; Gonzalez-Gay, Miguel A; Rodríguez-Rodríguez, Luis; Balsa, Alejandro; Uhlig, Till; Kvien, Tore K; Lie, Benedicte A

    OBJECTIVE: Certain HLA-DRB1 alleles and single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are associated with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Our objective was to examine the combined effect of these associated variants, calculated as a cumulative genetic risk score (GRS) on RA predisposition, as well as the number

  9. Prediction of individual genetic risk to prostate cancer using a polygenic score

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Szulkin, Robert; Whitington, Thomas; Eklund, Martin


    BACKGROUND: Polygenic risk scores comprising established susceptibility variants have shown to be informative classifiers for several complex diseases including prostate cancer. For prostate cancer it is unknown if inclusion of genetic markers that have so far not been associated with prostate ca...

  10. Risk score prediction model for dementia in patients with type 2 diabetes. (United States)

    Li, Chia-Ing; Li, Tsai-Chung; Liu, Chiu-Shong; Liao, Li-Na; Lin, Wen-Yuan; Lin, Chih-Hsueh; Yang, Sing-Yu; Chiang, Jen-Huai; Lin, Cheng-Chieh


    No study established a prediction dementia model in the Asian populations. This study aims to develop a prediction model for dementia in Chinese type 2 diabetes patients. This retrospective cohort study included 27,540 Chinese type 2 diabetes patients (aged 50-94 years) enrolled in Taiwan National Diabetes Care Management Program. Participants were randomly allocated into derivation and validation sets at 2:1 ratio. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to identify risk factors for dementia in the derivation set. Steps proposed by Framingham Heart Study were used to establish a prediction model with a scoring system. The average follow-up was 8.09 years, with a total of 853 incident dementia cases in derivation set. Dementia risk score summed up the individual scores (from 0 to 20). The areas under curve of 3-, 5-, and 10-year dementia risks were 0.82, 0.79, and 0.76 in derivation set and 0.84, 0.80, and 0.75 in validation set, respectively. The proposed score system is the first dementia risk prediction model for Chinese type 2 diabetes patients in Taiwan. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  11. Easy calculations of lod scores and genetic risks on small computers. (United States)

    Lathrop, G M; Lalouel, J M


    A computer program that calculates lod scores and genetic risks for a wide variety of both qualitative and quantitative genetic traits is discussed. An illustration is given of the joint use of a genetic marker, affection status, and quantitative information in counseling situations regarding Duchenne muscular dystrophy. PMID:6585139

  12. The Impact of SIM on FCAT Reading Scores of Special Education and At-Risk Students (United States)

    Matyo-Cepero, Jude


    The purpose of this study was to determine if special education and at-risk students educated exclusively in a school-within-a-school setting showed improved high-stakes standardized reading test scores after learning the strategic instruction model (SIM) inference strategy. This study was focused on four groups of eighth-grade students attending…

  13. Score-driven exponentially weighted moving averages and Value-at-Risk forecasting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lucas, A.; Zhang, X.


    We present a simple methodology for modeling the time variation in volatilities and other higher-order moments using a recursive updating scheme that is similar to the familiar RiskMetrics approach. The parameters are updated using the score of the forecasting distribution, which allows the

  14. Arterial lactate does not predict outcome better than existing risk scores in upper gastrointestinal bleeding

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stokbro, Line Aabel; Schaffalitzky de Muckadell, Ove B; Laursen, Stig Borbjerg


    OBJECTIVE: Upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) is a frequent medical emergency and several scoring systems are developed to help risk-stratify patients. We aimed to investigate if elevated arterial lactate (AL) was associated with 30-day mortality, need for hospital-based intervention...

  15. The role of self-esteem and gender in pen scores and risk-taking ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The role of self-esteem and gender in pen scores and risk-taking behaviour of learners in a South African school. ... RTB to some extent but not on the moderation effects of self-esteem (SE) and gender on RTB ... AJOL African Journals Online.

  16. Development and validation of a postpartum depression risk score in delivered women, Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad R Maracy


    Full Text Available Background: Investigators describe a dramatic increase in the incidence of mood disorder after childbirth, with the largest risk in the 90 days after delivery. This study is designed to develop a relatively simple screening tool and validate it from the significant variables associated with postpartum depression (PPD to detect delivered women at high risk of having PPD. Materials and Methods: In the cross-sectional study, 6,627 from a total of 7,300 delivered women, 2-12 months after delivery were recruited and screened for PPD. Split-half validation was used to develop the risk score. The training data set was used to develop the model, and the validation data set was used to validate the developed the risk factors of postpartum depression risk score using multiple logistic regression analysis to compute the β coefficients and odds ratio (OR for the dependent variables associated with possible PPD in this study. Calibration was checked using the Hosmer and Lemeshow test. A score for independent variables contributing to PPD was calculated. Cutoff points using a trade-off between the sensitivity and specificity of risk scores derived from PPD model using the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC curve. Results: The predicted and observed PPD were not different (P value = 0.885. The aROC with area under the curve (S.E. of 0.611 (0.008 for predicting PPD using the suggested cut-off point of -0.702, the proportion of participants screening positive for PPD was 70.9% (sensitivity (CI 95%; 69.5, 72.3 while the proportion screening negative was 60.1% (specificity (CI 95%; 58.2, 62.1. Conclusion: Despite of the relatively low sensitivity and specificity in this study, it could be a simple, practical and useful screening tool to identify individual at high risk for PPD in the target population.

  17. How to Identify High-Risk APS Patients: Clinical Utility and Predictive Values of Validated Scores. (United States)

    Oku, Kenji; Amengual, Olga; Yasuda, Shinsuke; Atsumi, Tatsuya


    Antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) is a clinical disorder characterised by thrombosis and/or pregnancy morbidity in the persistence of antiphospholipid (aPL) antibodies that are pathogenic and have pro-coagulant activities. Thrombosis in APS tends to recur and require prophylaxis; however, the stereotypical treatment for APS patients is inadequate and stratification of the thrombotic risks is important as aPL are prevalently observed in various diseases or elderly population. It is previously known that the multiple positive aPL or high titre aPL correlate to thrombotic events. To progress the stratification of thrombotic risks in APS patients and to quantitatively analyse those risks, antiphospholipid score (aPL-S) and the Global Anti-phospholipid Syndrome Score (GAPSS) were defined. These scores were raised from the large patient cohort data and either aPL profile classified in detail (aPL-S) or simplified aPL profile with classical thrombotic risk factors (GAPSS) was put into a scoring system. Both the aPL-S and GAPSS have shown a degree of accuracy in identifying high-risk APS patients, especially those at a high risk of thrombosis. However, there are several areas requiring improvement, or at least that clinicians should be aware of, before these instruments are applied in clinical practice. One such issue is standardisation of the aPL tests, including general testing of phosphatidylserine-dependent antiprothrombin antibodies (aPS/PT). Additionally, clinicians may need to be aware of the patient's medical history, particularly with respect to the incidence of SLE, which influences the cutoff value for identifying high-risk patients.

  18. Calcium scores in the risk assessment of an asymptomatic population: implications for airline pilots. (United States)

    Wirawan, I Made Ady; Wu, Rodney; Abernethy, Malcolm; Aldington, Sarah; Larsen, Peter D


    This study evaluated whether coronary artery calcium score (CACS) improved cardiovascular disease risk prediction when compared to the New Zealand Cardiovascular Risk Charts (NZ-CRC), and describes the potential utilization of CACS in cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk assessment of pilots. A cross-sectional study was performed among asymptomatic patients who underwent coronary computed tomography angiography at Pacific Radiology Wellington, New Zealand, between August 2007 and July 2012 and had their CACS and CVD risk score calculated. Receiver-operating characteristics (ROC) analyses were used to measure the accuracy of the NZ-CRC and CACS. Reclassification analyses were performed to examine the net reclassification improvement (NRI) of CACS when compared to NZ-CRC. Over a 5-yr study period, 237 male asymptomatic patients with ages ranging from 30 to 69 yr with a mean (SD) of 53.24 (8.18) yr, were included. The area under the ROC curves (AUC) (95% CI) for CACS and NZ-CRC were 0.88 (0.83-0.93) and 0.66 (0.59-0.73), respectively. The NRI (95% CI) of the calcium scores was 0.39 (0.17-0.62). CACS should be assessed in pilots with 5-yr CVD risk scores of 5-10% and 10-15%. CACS has a better accuracy than the NZ-CRC and reclassified a considerable proportion of asymptomatic patients into correct cardiovascular risk categories. An approach on how the CACS should be employed in the cardiovascular risk assessment of airline pilots is noted in this paper.

  19. The East London glaucoma prediction score: web-based validation of glaucoma risk screening tool (United States)

    Stephen, Cook; Benjamin, Longo-Mbenza


    AIM It is difficult for Optometrists and General Practitioners to know which patients are at risk. The East London glaucoma prediction score (ELGPS) is a web based risk calculator that has been developed to determine Glaucoma risk at the time of screening. Multiple risk factors that are available in a low tech environment are assessed to provide a risk assessment. This is extremely useful in settings where access to specialist care is difficult. Use of the calculator is educational. It is a free web based service. Data capture is user specific. METHOD The scoring system is a web based questionnaire that captures and subsequently calculates the relative risk for the presence of Glaucoma at the time of screening. Three categories of patient are described: Unlikely to have Glaucoma; Glaucoma Suspect and Glaucoma. A case review methodology of patients with known diagnosis is employed to validate the calculator risk assessment. RESULTS Data from the patient records of 400 patients with an established diagnosis has been captured and used to validate the screening tool. The website reports that the calculated diagnosis correlates with the actual diagnosis 82% of the time. Biostatistics analysis showed: Sensitivity = 88%; Positive predictive value = 97%; Specificity = 75%. CONCLUSION Analysis of the first 400 patients validates the web based screening tool as being a good method of screening for the at risk population. The validation is ongoing. The web based format will allow a more widespread recruitment for different geographic, population and personnel variables. PMID:23550097

  20. Trends in Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factor Prevalence and Estimated 10-Year Cardiovascular Risk Scores in a Large Untreated French Urban Population: The CARVAR 92 Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carma Karam

    Full Text Available Surveys measuring effectiveness of public awareness campaigns in reducing cardiovascular disease (CVD incidence have yielded equivocal findings. The aim of this study was to describe cardiovascular risk factors (CVRFs changes over the years in an untreated population-based study.Between 2007 and 2012, we conducted a screening campaign for CVRFs in men aged 40 to 65 yrs and women aged 50 to 70 yrs in the western suburbs of Paris. Data were complete for 20,324 participants of which 14,709 were untreated.The prevalence trend over six years was statistically significant for hypertension in men from 25.9% in 2007 to 21.1% in 2012 (p=0.002 and from 23% in 2007 to 12.7% in 2012 in women (p<0.0001. The prevalence trend of tobacco smoking decreased from 38.6% to 27.7% in men (p=0.0001 and from 22.6% to 16.8% in women (p=0.113. The Framingham 10-year risk for CVD decreased from 13.3 ± 8.2 % in 2007 to 11.7 ± 9.0 % in 2012 in men and from 8.0 ± 4.1 % to 5.9 ± 3.4 % in women. The 10-year risk of fatal CVD based on the European Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE decreased in men and in women (p <0.0001.Over a 6-year period, several CVRFs have decreased in our screening campaign, leading to decrease in the 10-year risk for CVD and the 10-year risk of fatal CVD. Cardiologists should recognize the importance of community prevention programs and communication policies, particularly tobacco control and healthier diets to decrease the CVRFs in the general population.

  1. Fall risk assessment: retrospective analysis of Morse Fall Scale scores in Portuguese hospitalized adult patients. (United States)

    Sardo, Pedro Miguel Garcez; Simões, Cláudia Sofia Oliveira; Alvarelhão, José Joaquim Marques; Simões, João Filipe Fernandes Lindo; Melo, Elsa Maria de Oliveira Pinheiro de


    The Morse Fall Scale is used in several care settings for fall risk assessment and supports the implementation of preventive nursing interventions. Our work aims to analyze the Morse Fall Scale scores of Portuguese hospitalized adult patients in association with their characteristics, diagnoses and length of stay. Retrospective cohort analysis of Morse Fall Scale scores of 8356 patients hospitalized during 2012. Data were associated to age, gender, type of admission, specialty units, length of stay, patient discharge, and ICD-9 diagnosis. Elderly patients, female, with emergency service admission, at medical units and/or with longer length of stays were more frequently included in the risk group for falls. ICD-9 diagnosis may also be an important risk factor. More than a half of hospitalized patients had "medium" to "high" risk of falling during the length of stay, which determines the implementation and maintenance of protocoled preventive nursing interventions throughout hospitalization. There are several fall risk factors not assessed by Morse Fall Scale. There were no statistical differences in Morse Fall Scale score between the first and the last assessment. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Risk prediction is improved by adding markers of subclinical organ damage to SCORE

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sehestedt, Thomas; Jeppesen, Jørgen; Hansen, Tine W


    cardiovascular, anti-diabetic, or lipid-lowering treatment, aged 41, 51, 61, or 71 years, we measured traditional cardiovascular risk factors, left ventricular (LV) mass index, atherosclerotic plaques in the carotid arteries, carotid/femoral pulse wave velocity (PWV), and urine albumin/creatinine ratio (UACR......) and followed them for a median of 12.8 years. Eighty-one subjects died because of cardiovascular causes. Risk of cardiovascular death was independently of SCORE associated with LV hypertrophy [hazard ratio (HR) 2.2 (95% CI 1.2-4.0)], plaques [HR 2.5 (1.6-4.0)], UACR > or = 90th percentile [HR 3.3 (1.......07). CONCLUSION: Subclinical organ damage predicted cardiovascular death independently of SCORE and the combination may improve risk prediction....

  3. Long-term allopurinol use decreases the risk of prostate cancer in patients with gout: a population-based study. (United States)

    Shih, H-J; Kao, M-C; Tsai, P-S; Fan, Y-C; Huang, C-J


    Clinical observations indicated an increased risk of developing prostate cancer in gout patients. Chronic inflammation is postulated to be one crucial mechanism for prostate carcinogenesis. Allopurinol, a widely used antigout agent, possesses potent anti-inflammation capacity. We elucidated whether allopurinol decreases the risk of prostate cancer in gout patients. We analyzed data retrieved from Taiwan National Health Insurance Database between January 2000 and December 2012. Patients diagnosed with gout during the study period with no history of prostate cancer and who had never used allopurinol were selected. Four allopurinol use cohorts (that is, allopurinol use (>365 days), allopurinol use (181-365 days), allopurinol use (91-180 days) and allopurinol use (31-90 days)) and one cohort without using allopurinol (that is, allopurinol use (No)) were included. The study end point was the diagnosis of new-onset prostate cancer. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression and propensity score-adjusted Cox regression models were used to estimate the association between the risk of prostate cancer and allopurinol treatment in gout patients after adjusting for potential confounders. A total of 25 770 gout patients (aged between 40 and 100 years) were included. Multivariable Cox regression analyses revealed that the risk of developing prostate cancer in the allopurinol use (>365 days) cohort was significantly lower than the allopurinol use (No) cohort (adjusted hazard ratio (HR)=0.64, 95% confidence interval (CI)=0.45-0.9, P=0.011). After propensity score adjustment, the trend remained the same (adjusted HR=0.66, 95% CI=0.46-0.93, P=0.019). Long-term (more than 1 year) allopurinol use may associate with a decreased risk of prostate cancer in gout patients.

  4. Does simplicity compromise accuracy in ACS risk prediction? A retrospective analysis of the TIMI and GRACE risk scores.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krishna G Aragam

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI risk scores for Unstable Angina/Non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction (UA/NSTEMI and ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI and the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE risk scores for in-hospital and 6-month mortality are established tools for assessing risk in Acute Coronary Syndrome (ACS patients. The objective of our study was to compare the discriminative abilities of the TIMI and GRACE risk scores in a broad-spectrum, unselected ACS population and to assess the relative contributions of model simplicity and model composition to any observed differences between the two scoring systems. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: ACS patients admitted to the University of Michigan between 1999 and 2005 were divided into UA/NSTEMI (n = 2753 and STEMI (n = 698 subpopulations. The predictive abilities of the TIMI and GRACE scores for in-hospital and 6-month mortality were assessed by calibration and discrimination. There were 137 in-hospital deaths (4%, and among the survivors, 234 (7.4% died by 6 months post-discharge. In the UA/NSTEMI population, the GRACE risk scores demonstrated better discrimination than the TIMI UA/NSTEMI score for in-hospital (C = 0.85, 95% CI: 0.81-0.89, versus 0.54, 95% CI: 0.48-0.60; p<0.01 and 6-month (C = 0.79, 95% CI: 0.76-0.83, versus 0.56, 95% CI: 0.52-0.60; p<0.01 mortality. Among STEMI patients, the GRACE and TIMI STEMI scores demonstrated comparably excellent discrimination for in-hospital (C = 0.84, 95% CI: 0.78-0.90 versus 0.83, 95% CI: 0.78-0.89; p = 0.83 and 6-month (C = 0.72, 95% CI: 0.63-0.81, versus 0.71, 95% CI: 0.64-0.79; p = 0.79 mortality. An analysis of refitted multivariate models demonstrated a marked improvement in the discriminative power of the TIMI UA/NSTEMI model with the incorporation of heart failure and hemodynamic variables. Study limitations included unaccounted for confounders inherent to observational, single institution

  5. Society of Thoracic Surgeons Risk Score predicts hospital charges and resource use after aortic valve replacement. (United States)

    Arnaoutakis, George J; George, Timothy J; Alejo, Diane E; Merlo, Christian A; Baumgartner, William A; Cameron, Duke E; Shah, Ashish S


    The impact of Society of Thoracic Surgeons predicted mortality risk score on resource use has not been previously studied. We hypothesize that increasing Society of Thoracic Surgeons risk scores in patients undergoing aortic valve replacement are associated with greater hospital charges. Clinical and financial data for patients undergoing aortic valve replacement at The Johns Hopkins Hospital over a 10-year period (January 2000 to December 2009) were reviewed. The current Society of Thoracic Surgeons formula (v2.61) for in-hospital mortality was used for all patients. After stratification into risk quartiles, index admission hospital charges were compared across risk strata with rank-sum and Kruskal-Wallis tests. Linear regression and Spearman's coefficient assessed correlation and goodness of fit. Multivariable analysis assessed relative contributions of individual variables on overall charges. A total of 553 patients underwent aortic valve replacement during the study period. Average predicted mortality was 2.9% (±3.4) and actual mortality was 3.4% for aortic valve replacement. Median charges were greater in the upper quartile of patients undergoing aortic valve replacement (quartiles 1-3, $39,949 [interquartile range, 32,708-51,323] vs quartile 4, $62,301 [interquartile range, 45,952-97,103], P < .01]. On univariate linear regression, there was a positive correlation between Society of Thoracic Surgeons risk score and log-transformed charges (coefficient, 0.06; 95% confidence interval, 0.05-0.07; P < .01). Spearman's correlation R-value was 0.51. This positive correlation persisted in risk-adjusted multivariable linear regression. Each 1% increase in Society of Thoracic Surgeons risk score was associated with an added $3000 in hospital charges. This is the first study to show that increasing Society of Thoracic Surgeons risk score predicts greater charges after aortic valve replacement. As competing therapies, such as percutaneous valve replacement, emerge to

  6. Society of Thoracic Surgeons Risk Score Predicts Hospital Charges and Resource Utilization After Aortic Valve Replacement (United States)

    Arnaoutakis, George J.; George, Timothy J.; Alejo, Diane E.; Merlo, Christian A.; Baumgartner, William A.; Cameron, Duke E.; Shah, Ashish S.


    Context The impact of Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) predicted mortality risk score on resource utilization after aortic valve replacement (AVR) has not been previously studied. Objective We hypothesize that increasing STS risk scores in patients having AVR are associated with greater hospital charges. Design, Setting, and Patients Clinical and financial data for patients undergoing AVR at a tertiary care, university hospital over a ten-year period (1/2000–12/2009) were retrospectively reviewed. The current STS formula (v2.61) for in-hospital mortality was used for all patients. After stratification into risk quartiles (Q), index admission hospital charges were compared across risk strata with Rank-Sum tests. Linear regression and Spearman’s coefficient assessed correlation and goodness of fit. Multivariable analysis assessed relative contributions of individual variables on overall charges. Main Outcome Measures Inflation-adjusted index hospitalization total charges Results 553 patients had AVR during the study period. Average predicted mortality was 2.9% (±3.4) and actual mortality was 3.4% for AVR. Median charges were greater in the upper Q of AVR patients [Q1–3,$39,949 (IQR32,708–51,323) vs Q4,$62,301 (IQR45,952–97,103), p=<0.01]. On univariate linear regression, there was a positive correlation between STS risk score and log-transformed charges (coefficient: 0.06, 95%CI 0.05–0.07, p<0.01). Spearman’s correlation R-value was 0.51. This positive correlation persisted in risk-adjusted multivariable linear regression. Each 1% increase in STS risk score was associated with an added $3,000 in hospital charges. Conclusions This study showed increasing STS risk score predicts greater charges after AVR. As competing therapies such as percutaneous valve replacement emerge to treat high risk patients, these results serve as a benchmark to compare resource utilization. PMID:21497834

  7. The HEART score is useful to predict cardiovascular risks and reduces unnecessary cardiac imaging in low-risk patients with acute chest pain. (United States)

    Dai, Siping; Huang, Bo; Zou, Yunliang; Guo, Jianbin; Liu, Ziyong; Pi, Dangyu; Qiu, Yunhong; Xiao, Chun


    The present study was to investigate whether the HEART score can be used to evaluate cardiovascular risks and reduce unnecessary cardiac imaging in China.Acute coronary syndrome patients with the thrombosis in myocardial infarction risk score risk HEART score group and 2 patients (1.5%) in the high risk HEART score group had cardiovascular events. The sensitivity of HEART score to predict cardiovascular events was 100% and the specificity was 46.7%. The potential unnecessary cardiac testing was 46.3%. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis showed that per one category increase of the HEART score was associated with nearly 1.3-fold risk of cardiovascular events.In the low-risk acute chest pain patients, the HEART score is useful to physicians in evaluating the risk of cardiovascular events within the first 30 days. In addition, the HEART score is also useful in reducing the unnecessary cardiac imaging.

  8. Prospective comparison of three risk scoring systems in non-variceal and variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding. (United States)

    Thanapirom, Kessarin; Ridtitid, Wiriyaporn; Rerknimitr, Rungsun; Thungsuk, Rattikorn; Noophun, Phadet; Wongjitrat, Chatchawan; Luangjaru, Somchai; Vedkijkul, Padet; Lertkupinit, Comson; Poonsab, Swangphong; Ratanachu-ek, Thawee; Hansomburana, Piyathida; Pornthisarn, Bubpha; Thongbai, Thirada; Mahachai, Varocha; Treeprasertsuk, Sombat


    Data regarding the efficacy of the Glasgow Blatchford score (GBS), full Rockall score (FRS) and pre-endoscopic Rockall scores (PRS) in comparing non-variceal and variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) are limited. Our aim was to determine the performance of these three risk scores in predicting the need for treatment, mortality, and re-bleeding among patients with non-variceal and variceal UGIB. During January, 2010 and September, 2011, patients with UGIB from 11 hospitals were prospectively enrolled. The GBS, FRS, and PRS were calculated. Discriminative ability for each score was assessed using the receiver operated characteristics curve (ROC) analysis. A total of 981 patients presented with acute UGIB, 225 patients (22.9%) had variceal UGIB. The areas under the ROC (AUC) of the GBS, FRS, and PRS for predicting the need for treatment were 0.77, 0.69, and 0.61 in non-variceal versus 0.66, 0.66, and 0.59 in variceal UGIB. The AUC for predicting mortality and re-bleeding during admission were 0.66, 0.80, and 0.76 in non-variceal versus 0.63, 0.57, and 0.63 in variceal UGIB. AUC score was not statistically significant for predicting need for therapy and clinical outcome in variceal UGIB. The GBS ≤ 2 and FRS ≤ 1 identified low-risk non-variceal UGIB patients for death and re-bleeding during hospitalization. In contrast to non-variceal UGIB, the GBS, FRS, and PRS were not precise scores for assessing the need for therapy, mortality, and re-bleeding during admission in variceal UGIB. © 2015 Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Foundation and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

  9. The New York risk score for in-hospital and 30-day mortality for coronary artery bypass graft surgery. (United States)

    Hannan, Edward L; Farrell, Louise Szypulski; Wechsler, Andrew; Jordan, Desmond; Lahey, Stephen J; Culliford, Alfred T; Gold, Jeffrey P; Higgins, Robert S D; Smith, Craig R


    Simplified risk scores for coronary artery bypass graft surgery are frequently in lieu of more complicated statistical models and are valuable for informed consent and choice of intervention. Previous risk scores have been based on in-hospital mortality, but a substantial number of patients die within 30 days of the procedure. These deaths should also be accounted for, so we have developed a risk score based on in-hospital and 30-day mortality. New York's Cardiac Surgery Reporting System was used to develop an in-hospital and 30-day logistic regression model for patients undergoing coronary artery bypass graft surgery in 2009, and this model was converted into a simple linear risk score that provides estimated in-hospital and 30-day mortality rates for different values of the score. The accuracy of the risk score in predicting mortality was tested. This score was also validated by applying it to 2008 New York coronary artery bypass graft data. Subsequent analyses evaluated the ability of the risk score to predict complications and length of stay. The overall in-hospital and 30-day mortality rate for the 10,148 patients in the study was 1.79%. There are seven risk factors comprising the score, with risk factor scores ranging from 1 to 5, and the highest possible total score is 23. The score accurately predicted mortality in 2009 as well as in 2008, and was strongly correlated with complications and length of stay. The risk score is a simple way of estimating short-term mortality that accurately predicts mortality in the year the model was developed as well as in the previous year. Perioperative complications and length of stay are also well predicted by the risk score. Copyright © 2013 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Clinical Risk Scoring Models for Prediction of Acute Kidney Injury after Living Donor Liver Transplantation: A Retrospective Observational Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mi Hye Park

    Full Text Available Acute kidney injury (AKI is a frequent complication of liver transplantation and is associated with increased mortality. We identified the incidence and modifiable risk factors for AKI after living-donor liver transplantation (LDLT and constructed risk scoring models for AKI prediction. We retrospectively reviewed 538 cases of LDLT. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to evaluate risk factors for the prediction of AKI as defined by the RIFLE criteria (RIFLE = risk, injury, failure, loss, end stage. Three risk scoring models were developed in the retrospective cohort by including all variables that were significant in univariate analysis, or variables that were significant in multivariate analysis by backward or forward stepwise variable selection. The risk models were validated by way of cross-validation. The incidence of AKI was 27.3% (147/538 and 6.3% (34/538 required postoperative renal replacement therapy. Independent risk factors for AKI by multivariate analysis of forward stepwise variable selection included: body-mass index >27.5 kg/m2 [odds ratio (OR 2.46, 95% confidence interval (CI 1.32-4.55], serum albumin 20 (OR 2.01, 95%CI 1.17-3.44, operation time >600 min (OR 1.81, 95%CI 1.07-3.06, warm ischemic time >40 min (OR 2.61, 95%CI 1.55-4.38, postreperfusion syndrome (OR 2.96, 95%CI 1.55-4.38, mean blood glucose during the day of surgery >150 mg/dl (OR 1.66, 95%CI 1.01-2.70, cryoprecipitate > 6 units (OR 4.96, 95%CI 2.84-8.64, blood loss/body weight >60 ml/kg (OR 4.05, 95%CI 2.28-7.21, and calcineurin inhibitor use without combined mycophenolate mofetil (OR 1.87, 95%CI 1.14-3.06. Our risk models performed better than did a previously reported score by Utsumi et al. in our study cohort. Doses of calcineurin inhibitor should be reduced by combined use of mycophenolate mofetil to decrease postoperative AKI. Prospective randomized trials are required to address whether artificial modification of hypoalbuminemia, hyperglycemia

  11. Effectiveness of an Ergonomics Training Program on Decreasing Work-Related Musculoskeletal Disorders Risk among Video Display Terminals Users

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yahya Rasoulzadeh


    Full Text Available loskeletaldisorders (WMSDs among the video display terminals (VDTs users, Prevention ofthese disorders among this population is a challenge for many workplaces today. ErgonomicallyImproving of VDT workstations may be an effective and applicable way to decrease the risk ofWMSDs. This study evaluated the effect of an ergonomics-training program on the risk ofWMSDs among VDT users.Methods: This study was conducted among a large group of computer users in SAPCO industrialcompany, Tehran, Iran (84 persons with 29.85±11.2 years of age and with 6.98±2.54 years ofexperience. An active ergonomics-training program was designed and implemented during 14days to empower the VDT users and involve them in improving their workstations. The directobservational RULA (Rapid Upper Limb Assessment method was used in pre and postinterventionstages to evaluate the risk of WMSDs among participants.Results: The RULA final scores showed that 18.8 % of VDT users were at action level 2, 63.5%at action level 3 and 17.6% at action level 4 before any intervention. In addition, 8.2% of userswere at action level 1, 44.7% at action level 2, 42.4% at action level 3 and 4.7% at action level 4 atthe post-intervention stage. The results of Wilcoxon statistical test indicated that RULA scoresere decreased significantly after interventions (P < 0.05 and consequently, decreased risk ofWMSDs.Conclusion: Active ergonomics training programs can be used effectively to improve the VDTworkstations and decrease the risk of musculoskeletal disorders among VDT users.

  12. High-intensity physical activity, stable relationship, and high education level associate with decreasing risk of erectile dysfunction in 1,000 apparently healthy cardiovascular risk subjects. (United States)

    Ettala, Otto O; Syvänen, Kari T; Korhonen, Päivi E; Kaipia, Antti J; Vahlberg, Tero J; Boström, Peter J; Aarnio, Pertti T


    Erectile dysfunction (ED) is especially common in men with cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). However, the data are scarce concerning populations without manifested CVD. The aim of this study was to describe factors associated with ED, especially those associated with decreasing risk of ED, in men with cardiovascular risk factors but without CVD, diabetes, or chronic renal disease. In 2004 to 2007, a cross-sectional population-based sample of men 45 to 70 years old in two rural towns in Finland was collected. Men with previously diagnosed CVD, diabetes, or kidney disease were not invited to the study. In total 1,000 eligible men with cardiovascular risk factors, i.e., central obesity, high scores in the Finnish Diabetes Risk Score, high blood pressure, antihypertensive medication, or family history of coronary heart disease, myocardial infarction, or stroke, were included in the analysis. Questionnaires, clinical measurements, and laboratory tests were obtained. The prevalence of ED was studied comparing the means, and risk factors were studied using multivariate logistic regression analysis. The rate of ED was defined by the International Index of Erectile Function short form (IIEF-5) and by two questions (2Q) about the ability to achieve and to maintain an erection. The prevalence of ED was 57% or 68% using IIEF-5 or 2Q, respectively. Age (odds ratio [OR]: up to 9.16; 95% confidence interval [CI], 5.00-16.79; P physical activity (OR: 0.50; 95% CI, 0.29-0.86; P = 0.045), high education (OR: 0.52; 95% CI, 0.33-0.83; P = 0.013), and stable relationship (OR: 0.43; 95% CI, 0.21-0.88; P = 0.046) were associated with ED. In apparently healthy men with cardiovascular risk factors, decreasing risk of ED is associated with high-intensity physical activity, stable relationship, and high education level. © 2014 International Society for Sexual Medicine.

  13. A urinary biomarker-based risk score correlates with multiparametric MRI for prostate cancer detection. (United States)

    Hendriks, Rianne J; van der Leest, Marloes M G; Dijkstra, Siebren; Barentsz, Jelle O; Van Criekinge, Wim; Hulsbergen-van de Kaa, Christina A; Schalken, Jack A; Mulders, Peter F A; van Oort, Inge M


    Prostate cancer (PCa) diagnostics would greatly benefit from more accurate, non-invasive techniques for the detection of clinically significant disease, leading to a reduction of over-diagnosis and over-treatment. The aim of this study was to determine the association between a novel urinary biomarker-based risk score (SelectMDx), multiparametric MRI (mpMRI) outcomes, and biopsy results for PCa detection. This retrospective observational study used data from the validation study of the SelectMDx score, in which urine was collected after digital rectal examination from men undergoing prostate biopsies. A subset of these patients also underwent a mpMRI scan of the prostate. The indications for performing mpMRI were based on persistent clinical suspicion of PCa or local staging after PCa was found upon biopsy. All mpMRI images were centrally reviewed in 2016 by an experienced radiologist blinded for the urine test results and biopsy outcome. The PI-RADS version 2 was used. In total, 172 patients were included for analysis. Hundred (58%) patients had PCa detected upon prostate biopsy, of which 52 (52%) had high-grade disease correlated with a significantly higher SelectMDx score (P < 0.01). The median SelectMDx score was significantly higher in patients with a suspicious significant lesion on mpMRI compared to no suspicion of significant PCa (P < 0.01). For the prediction of mpMRI outcome, the area-under-the-curve of SelectMDx was 0.83 compared to 0.66 for PSA and 0.65 for PCA3. There was a positive association between SelectMDx score and the final PI-RADS grade. There was a statistically significant difference in SelectMDx score between PI-RADS 3 and 4 (P < 0.01) and between PI-RADS 4 and 5 (P < 0.01). The novel urinary biomarker-based SelectMDx score is a promising tool in PCa detection. This study showed promising results regarding the correlation between the SelectMDx score and mpMRI outcomes, outperforming PCA3. Our results suggest that this risk

  14. Cardiovascular Risk Stratification in Patients with Metabolic Syndrome Without Diabetes or Cardiovascular Disease: Usefulness of Metabolic Syndrome Severity Score. (United States)

    Masson, Walter; Epstein, Teo; Huerín, Melina; Lobo, Lorenzo Martín; Molinero, Graciela; Angel, Adriana; Masson, Gerardo; Millán, Diana; De Francesca, Salvador; Vitagliano, Laura; Cafferata, Alberto; Losada, Pablo


    The estimated cardiovascular risk determined by the different risk scores, could be heterogeneous in patients with metabolic syndrome without diabetes or vascular disease. This risk stratification could be improved by detecting subclinical carotid atheromatosis. To estimate the cardiovascular risk measured by different scores in patients with metabolic syndrome and analyze its association with the presence of carotid plaque. Non-diabetic patients with metabolic syndrome (Adult Treatment Panel III definition) without cardiovascular disease were enrolled. The Framingham score, the Reynolds score, the new score proposed by the 2013 ACC/AHA Guidelines and the Metabolic Syndrome Severity Calculator were calculated. Prevalence of carotid plaque was determined by ultrasound examination. A Receiver Operating Characteristic analysis was performed. A total of 238 patients were enrolled. Most patients were stratified as "low risk" by Framingham score (64%) and Reynolds score (70.1%). Using the 2013 ACC/AHA score, 45.3% of the population had a risk ≥7.5%. A significant correlation was found between classic scores but the agreement (concordance) was moderate. The correlation between classical scores and the Metabolic Syndrome Severity Calculator was poor. Overall, the prevalence of carotid plaque was 28.2%. The continuous metabolic syndrome score used in our study showed a good predictive power to detect carotid plaque (area under the curve 0.752). In this population, the calculated cardiovascular risk was heterogenic. The prevalence of carotid plaque was high. The Metabolic Syndrome Severity Calculator showed a good predictive power to detect carotid plaque.

  15. New risk markers may change the HeartScore risk classification significantly in one-fifth of the population

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, M H; Hansen, T W; Christensen, M K


    subjects with estimated risk below 5%. During the following 9.5 years the composite end point of cardiovascular death, non-fatal myocardial infarction or stroke (CEP) occurred in 204 subjects. CEP was predicted in all three groups by UACR (HRs: 2.1, 2.1 and 2.3 per 10-fold increase, all P...CRP in subjects with low-moderate risk and UACR and Nt-proBNP in subjects with known diabetes of cardiovascular disease changed HeartScore risk classification significantly in 19% of the population....

  16. Analysis of Surgical Site Infection after Musculoskeletal Tumor Surgery: Risk Assessment Using a New Scoring System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Satoshi Nagano


    Full Text Available Surgical site infection (SSI has not been extensively studied in musculoskeletal tumors (MST owing to the rarity of the disease. We analyzed incidence and risk factors of SSI in MST. SSI incidence was evaluated in consecutive 457 MST cases (benign, 310 cases and malignant, 147 cases treated at our institution. A detailed analysis of the clinical background of the patients, pre- and postoperative hematological data, and other factors that might be associated with SSI incidence was performed for malignant MST cases. SSI occurred in 0.32% and 12.2% of benign and malignant MST cases, respectively. The duration of the surgery (P=0.0002 and intraoperative blood loss (P=0.0005 was significantly more in the SSI group than in the non-SSI group. We established the musculoskeletal oncological surgery invasiveness (MOSI index by combining 4 risk factors (blood loss, operation duration, preoperative chemotherapy, and the use of artificial materials. The MOSI index (0–4 points score significantly correlated with the risk of SSI, as demonstrated by an SSI incidence of 38.5% in the group with a high score (3-4 points. The MOSI index score and laboratory data at 1 week after surgery could facilitate risk evaluation and prompt diagnosis of SSI.

  17. Framingham coronary heart disease risk score can be predicted from structural brain images in elderly subjects.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jane Maryam Rondina


    Full Text Available Recent literature has presented evidence that cardiovascular risk factors (CVRF play an important role on cognitive performance in elderly individuals, both those who are asymptomatic and those who suffer from symptoms of neurodegenerative disorders. Findings from studies applying neuroimaging methods have increasingly reinforced such notion. Studies addressing the impact of CVRF on brain anatomy changes have gained increasing importance, as recent papers have reported gray matter loss predominantly in regions traditionally affected in Alzheimer’s disease (AD and vascular dementia in the presence of a high degree of cardiovascular risk. In the present paper, we explore the association between CVRF and brain changes using pattern recognition techniques applied to structural MRI and the Framingham score (a composite measure of cardiovascular risk largely used in epidemiological studies in a sample of healthy elderly individuals. We aim to answer the following questions: Is it possible to decode (i.e., to learn information regarding cardiovascular risk from structural brain images enabling individual predictions? Among clinical measures comprising the Framingham score, are there particular risk factors that stand as more predictable from patterns of brain changes? Our main findings are threefold: i we verified that structural changes in spatially distributed patterns in the brain enable statistically significant prediction of Framingham scores. This result is still significant when controlling for the presence of the APOE 4 allele (an important genetic risk factor for both AD and cardiovascular disease. ii When considering each risk factor singly, we found different levels of correlation between real and predicted factors; however, single factors were not significantly predictable from brain images when considering APOE4 allele presence as covariate. iii We found important gender differences, and the possible causes of that finding are discussed.

  18. Alimentary Habits, Physical Activity, and Framingham Global Risk Score in Metabolic Syndrome

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Soares, Thays Soliman; Piovesan, Carla Haas; Gustavo, Andréia da Silva; Macagnan, Fabrício Edler; Bodanese, Luiz Carlos; Feoli, Ana Maria Pandolfo, E-mail: [Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Rio Grande do Sul (PUCRS), Porto Alegre, RS (Brazil)


    Metabolic syndrome is a complex disorder represented by a set of cardiovascular risk factors. A healthy lifestyle is strongly related to improve Quality of Life and interfere positively in the control of risk factors presented in this condition. To evaluate the effect of a program of lifestyle modification on the Framingham General Cardiovascular Risk Profile in subjects diagnosed with metabolic syndrome. A sub-analysis study of a randomized clinical trial controlled blind that lasted three months. Participants were randomized into four groups: dietary intervention + placebo (DIP), dietary intervention + supplementation of omega 3 (fish oil 3 g/day) (DIS3), dietary intervention + placebo + physical activity (DIPE) and dietary intervention + physical activity + supplementation of omega 3 (DIS3PE). The general cardiovascular risk profile of each individual was calculated before and after the intervention. The study included 70 subjects. Evaluating the score between the pre and post intervention yielded a significant value (p < 0.001). We obtained a reduction for intermediate risk in 25.7% of subjects. After intervention, there was a significant reduction (p < 0.01) on cardiovascular age, this being more significant in groups DIP (5.2%) and DIPE (5.3%). Proposed interventions produced beneficial effects for reducing cardiovascular risk score. This study emphasizes the importance of lifestyle modification in the prevention and treatment of cardiovascular diseases.

  19. Alimentary Habits, Physical Activity, and Framingham Global Risk Score in Metabolic Syndrome

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soares, Thays Soliman; Piovesan, Carla Haas; Gustavo, Andréia da Silva; Macagnan, Fabrício Edler; Bodanese, Luiz Carlos; Feoli, Ana Maria Pandolfo


    Metabolic syndrome is a complex disorder represented by a set of cardiovascular risk factors. A healthy lifestyle is strongly related to improve Quality of Life and interfere positively in the control of risk factors presented in this condition. To evaluate the effect of a program of lifestyle modification on the Framingham General Cardiovascular Risk Profile in subjects diagnosed with metabolic syndrome. A sub-analysis study of a randomized clinical trial controlled blind that lasted three months. Participants were randomized into four groups: dietary intervention + placebo (DIP), dietary intervention + supplementation of omega 3 (fish oil 3 g/day) (DIS3), dietary intervention + placebo + physical activity (DIPE) and dietary intervention + physical activity + supplementation of omega 3 (DIS3PE). The general cardiovascular risk profile of each individual was calculated before and after the intervention. The study included 70 subjects. Evaluating the score between the pre and post intervention yielded a significant value (p < 0.001). We obtained a reduction for intermediate risk in 25.7% of subjects. After intervention, there was a significant reduction (p < 0.01) on cardiovascular age, this being more significant in groups DIP (5.2%) and DIPE (5.3%). Proposed interventions produced beneficial effects for reducing cardiovascular risk score. This study emphasizes the importance of lifestyle modification in the prevention and treatment of cardiovascular diseases

  20. Risk score modeling of multiple gene to gene interactions using aggregated-multifactor dimensionality reduction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dai Hongying


    Full Text Available Abstract Background Multifactor Dimensionality Reduction (MDR has been widely applied to detect gene-gene (GxG interactions associated with complex diseases. Existing MDR methods summarize disease risk by a dichotomous predisposing model (high-risk/low-risk from one optimal GxG interaction, which does not take the accumulated effects from multiple GxG interactions into account. Results We propose an Aggregated-Multifactor Dimensionality Reduction (A-MDR method that exhaustively searches for and detects significant GxG interactions to generate an epistasis enriched gene network. An aggregated epistasis enriched risk score, which takes into account multiple GxG interactions simultaneously, replaces the dichotomous predisposing risk variable and provides higher resolution in the quantification of disease susceptibility. We evaluate this new A-MDR approach in a broad range of simulations. Also, we present the results of an application of the A-MDR method to a data set derived from Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis patients treated with methotrexate (MTX that revealed several GxG interactions in the folate pathway that were associated with treatment response. The epistasis enriched risk score that pooled information from 82 significant GxG interactions distinguished MTX responders from non-responders with 82% accuracy. Conclusions The proposed A-MDR is innovative in the MDR framework to investigate aggregated effects among GxG interactions. New measures (pOR, pRR and pChi are proposed to detect multiple GxG interactions.

  1. What does my patient's coronary artery calcium score mean? Combining information from the coronary artery calcium score with information from conventional risk factors to estimate coronary heart disease risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pletcher Mark J


    Full Text Available Abstract Background The coronary artery calcium (CAC score is an independent predictor of coronary heart disease. We sought to combine information from the CAC score with information from conventional cardiac risk factors to produce post-test risk estimates, and to determine whether the score may add clinically useful information. Methods We measured the independent cross-sectional associations between conventional cardiac risk factors and the CAC score among asymptomatic persons referred for non-contrast electron beam computed tomography. Using the resulting multivariable models and published CAC score-specific relative risk estimates, we estimated post-test coronary heart disease risk in a number of different scenarios. Results Among 9341 asymptomatic study participants (age 35–88 years, 40% female, we found that conventional coronary heart disease risk factors including age, male sex, self-reported hypertension, diabetes and high cholesterol were independent predictors of the CAC score, and we used the resulting multivariable models for predicting post-test risk in a variety of scenarios. Our models predicted, for example, that a 60-year-old non-smoking non-diabetic women with hypertension and high cholesterol would have a 47% chance of having a CAC score of zero, reducing her 10-year risk estimate from 15% (per Framingham to 6–9%; if her score were over 100, however (a 17% chance, her risk estimate would be markedly higher (25–51% in 10 years. In low risk scenarios, the CAC score is very likely to be zero or low, and unlikely to change management. Conclusion Combining information from the CAC score with information from conventional risk factors can change assessment of coronary heart disease risk to an extent that may be clinically important, especially when the pre-test 10-year risk estimate is intermediate. The attached spreadsheet makes these calculations easy.

  2. Does red noise increase or decrease extinction risk? Single extreme events versus series of unfavorable conditions. (United States)

    Schwager, Monika; Johst, Karin; Jeltsch, Florian


    Recent theoretical studies have shown contrasting effects of temporal correlation of environmental fluctuations (red noise) on the risk of population extinction. It is still debated whether and under which conditions red noise increases or decreases extinction risk compared with uncorrelated (white) noise. Here, we explain the opposing effects by introducing two features of red noise time series. On the one hand, positive autocorrelation increases the probability of series of poor environmental conditions, implying increasing extinction risk. On the other hand, for a given time period, the probability of at least one extremely bad year ("catastrophe") is reduced compared with white noise, implying decreasing extinction risk. Which of these two features determines extinction risk depends on the strength of environmental fluctuations and the sensitivity of population dynamics to these fluctuations. If extreme (catastrophic) events can occur (strong noise) or sensitivity is high (overcompensatory density dependence), then temporal correlation decreases extinction risk; otherwise, it increases it. Thus, our results provide a simple explanation for the contrasting previous findings and are a crucial step toward a general understanding of the effect of noise color on extinction risk.

  3. Laboratory-based and office-based risk scores and charts to predict 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease in 182 countries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ueda, Peter; Woodward, Mark; Lu, Yuan


    BACKGROUND: Worldwide implementation of risk-based cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention requires risk prediction tools that are contemporarily recalibrated for the target country and can be used where laboratory measurements are unavailable. We present two cardiovascular risk scores, with and ...

  4. Significant relationships between a simple marker of redox balance and lifestyle behaviours; Relevance to the Framingham risk score.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neda Seyedsadjadi

    Full Text Available Oxidative stress has been closely linked to the progressive cell damage associated with emerging non-communicable disease (NCDs. Early detection of these biochemical abnormalities before irreversible cell damage occurs may therefore be useful in identifying disease risk at an individual level. In order to test this hypothesis, this study assessed the relationship between a simple measure of redox status and lifestyle risk factors for NCDs, and the population-based risk score of Framingham. In a cross-sectional study design, 100 apparently healthy middle-aged males (n = 48 and females (n = 52 were asked to complete a comprehensive lifestyle assessment questionnaire, followed by body fat percentage and blood pressure measurements, and blood collection. The ratio of plasma total antioxidant capacity to hydroperoxide (TAC/HPX was used as an index of redox balance. One-way ANOVA and multiple linear regression analysis were performed to analyse the association between TAC/HPX, lifestyle components and other plasma biomarkers. The TAC/HPX ratio was higher in males compared to females (t96 = 2.34, P = 0.021. TAC/HPX was also lower in participants with poor sleep quality (t93 = 2.39, P = 0.019, with high sleep apnoea risk (t62.2 = 3.32, P = 0.002, with high caffeine (F(2, 93 = 3.97, P = 0.022 and red meat intake (F(2, 93 = 5.55, P = 0.005. These associations were independent of gender. Furthermore, the TAC/HPX ratio decreased with increasing body fat percentage (F(2, 95 = 4.74, P = 0.011 and depression score (t94 = 2.38, P = 0.019, though these associations were dependent on gender. Importantly, a negative association was observed between TAC/HPX levels and the Framingham risk score in both males (r(45 = -0.39, P = 0.008 and females (r(50 = -0.33, P = 0.019 that was independent of other Framingham risk score components. Findings from this study suggests that a relatively simple measure of redox balance such as the TAC/HPX ratio may be a sensitive

  5. Predicting PTSD using the New York Risk Score with genotype data: potential clinical and research opportunities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boscarino JA


    Full Text Available Joseph A Boscarino,1,2 H Lester Kirchner,3,4 Stuart N Hoffman,5 Porat M Erlich1,4 1Center for Health Research, Geisinger Clinic, Danville, 2Department of Psychiatry, Temple University School of Medicine, Philadelphia, 3Division of Medicine, Geisinger Clinic, Danville, 4Department of Medicine, Temple University School of Medicine, Philadelphia, 5Department of Neurology, Geisinger Clinic, Danville, PA, USA Background: We previously developed a post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD screening instrument, ie, the New York PTSD Risk Score (NYPRS, that was effective in predicting PTSD. In the present study, we assessed a version of this risk score that also included genetic information. Methods: Utilizing diagnostic testing methods, we hierarchically examined different prediction variables identified in previous NYPRS research, including genetic risk-allele information, to assess lifetime and current PTSD status among a population of trauma-exposed adults. Results: We found that, in predicting lifetime PTSD, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC for the Primary Care PTSD Screen alone was 0.865. When we added psychosocial predictors from the original NYPRS to the model, including depression, sleep disturbance, and a measure of health care access, the AUC increased to 0.902, which was a significant improvement (P = 0.0021. When genetic information was added in the form of a count of PTSD risk alleles located within FKBP, COMT, CHRNA5, and CRHR1 genetic loci (coded 0–6, the AUC increased to 0.920, which was also a significant improvement (P = 0.0178. The results for current PTSD were similar. In the final model for current PTSD with the psychosocial risk factors included, genotype resulted in a prediction weight of 17 for each risk allele present, indicating that a person with six risk alleles or more would receive a PTSD risk score of 17 × 6 = 102, the highest risk score for any of the predictors studied. Conclusion: Genetic

  6. A Score for Risk of Thrombolysis-Associated Hemorrhage Including Pretreatment with Statins

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hebun Erdur


    Full Text Available BackgroundSymptomatic intracranial hemorrhage (sICH after intravenous thrombolysis with recombinant tissue-plasminogen activator (rt-PA for acute ischemic stroke is associated with a poor functional outcome. We aimed to develop a score assessing risk of sICH including novel putative predictors—namely, pretreatment with statins and severe renal impairment.MethodsWe analyzed our local cohort (Berlin of patients receiving rt-PA for acute ischemic stroke between 2006 and 2016. Outcome was sICH according to ECASS-III criteria. A multiple regression model identified variables associated with sICH and receiver operating characteristics were calculated for the best discriminatory model for sICH. The model was validated in an independent thrombolysis cohort (Basel.ResultssICH occurred in 53 (4.0% of 1,336 patients in the derivation cohort. Age, baseline National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale, systolic blood pressure on admission, blood glucose on admission, and prior medication with medium- or high-dose statins were associated with sICH and included into the risk of intracranial hemorrhage score. The validation cohort included 983 patients of whom 33 (3.4% had a sICH. c-Statistics for sICH was 0.72 (95% CI 0.66–0.79 in the derivation cohort and 0.69 (95% CI 0.60–0.77 in the independent validation cohort. Inclusion of severe renal impairment did not improve the score.ConclusionWe developed a simple score with fair discriminating capability to predict rt-PA-related sICH by adding prior statin use to known prognostic factors of sICH. This score may help clinicians to identify patients with higher risk of sICH requiring intensive monitoring.

  7. Can the Obesity Surgery Mortality Risk Score predict postoperative complications other than mortality? (United States)

    Major, Piotr; Wysocki, Michał; Pędziwiatr, Michał; Małczak, Piotr; Pisarska, Magdalena; Migaczewski, Marcin; Winiarski, Marek; Budzyński, Andrzej


    Laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy (LSG) and laparoscopic Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (LRYGB) are bariatric procedures with acceptable risk of postoperative morbidities and mortalities, but identification of high-risk patients is an ongoing issue. DeMaria et al. introduced the Obesity Surgery Mortality Risk Score (OS-MRS), which was designed for mortality risk assessment but not perioperative morbidity risk. To assess the possibility to use the OS-MRS to predict the risk of perioperative complications related to LSG and LRYGB. Retrospective analysis of patients operated on for morbid obesity was performed. Patients were evaluated before and after surgery. We included 408 patients (233 LSG, 175 LRYGB). Perioperative complications were defined as adverse effects in the 30-day period. The Clavien-Dindo scale was used for description of complications. Patients were assigned to five grades and three classes according to the OS-MRS results, then risk of morbidity was analyzed. Complications were observed in 30 (7.35%) patients. Similar morbidity was related to both procedures (OR = 1.14, 95% CI: 0.53-2.44, p = 0.744). The reoperation and mortality rates were 1.23% and 0.49% respectively. There were no significant differences in median OS-MRS value between the group without and the group with perioperative complications. There were no significant differences in OS-MRS between groups (p = 0.091). Obesity Surgery Mortality Risk Score was not related to Clavien-Dindo grades (p = 0.800). It appears that OS-MRS is not useful in predicting risk of perioperative morbidity after bariatric procedures.

  8. Predicting Readmission at Early Hospitalization Using Electronic Clinical Data: An Early Readmission Risk Score. (United States)

    Tabak, Ying P; Sun, Xiaowu; Nunez, Carlos M; Gupta, Vikas; Johannes, Richard S


    Identifying patients at high risk for readmission early during hospitalization may aid efforts in reducing readmissions. We sought to develop an early readmission risk predictive model using automated clinical data available at hospital admission. We developed an early readmission risk model using a derivation cohort and validated the model with a validation cohort. We used a published Acute Laboratory Risk of Mortality Score as an aggregated measure of clinical severity at admission and the number of hospital discharges in the previous 90 days as a measure of disease progression. We then evaluated the administrative data-enhanced model by adding principal and secondary diagnoses and other variables. We examined the c-statistic change when additional variables were added to the model. There were 1,195,640 adult discharges from 70 hospitals with 39.8% male and the median age of 63 years (first and third quartile: 43, 78). The 30-day readmission rate was 11.9% (n=142,211). The early readmission model yielded a graded relationship of readmission and the Acute Laboratory Risk of Mortality Score and the number of previous discharges within 90 days. The model c-statistic was 0.697 with good calibration. When administrative variables were added to the model, the c-statistic increased to 0.722. Automated clinical data can generate a readmission risk score early at hospitalization with fair discrimination. It may have applied value to aid early care transition. Adding administrative data increases predictive accuracy. The administrative data-enhanced model may be used for hospital comparison and outcome research.

  9. Thiazolidinediones are associated with a decreased risk of atrial fibrillation compared with other antidiabetic treatment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pallisgaard, Jannik Langtved; Lindhardt, Tommi Bo; Staerk, Laila


    sensitizer that also has anti-inflammatory effects, which might decrease the risk of AF compared with other antidiabetic drugs. We used data from the Danish nationwide registries to study 108 624 patients with diabetes and without prior AF who were treated with metformin or sulfonylurea as first-line drugs...... drugs. The decreased risk of AF remained significant after adjusting for age, sex, and comorbidities with a hazard ratio (95% CI) of 0.76 (0.57-1.00), P = 0.047 associated with TZD treatment compared with other antidiabetic drugs. CONCLUSION: Use of a TZD to treat diabetes was associated with reduced...

  10. Prediction of acute pancreatitis risk based on PIP score in children with cystic fibrosis. (United States)

    Terlizzi, V; Tosco, A; Tomaiuolo, R; Sepe, A; Amato, N; Casale, A; Mercogliano, C; De Gregorio, F; Improta, F; Elce, A; Castaldo, G; Raia, V


    Currently no tools to predict risk of acute (AP) and recurrent pancreatitis (ARP) in children with cystic fibrosis (CF) are available. We assessed the prevalence of AP/ARP and tested the potential role of Pancreatic Insufficiency Prevalence (PIP) score in a cohort of children with CF. We identified two groups of children, on the basis of presence/absence of AP/ARP, who were compared for age at diagnosis, clinical features, genotypes and sweat chloride level. PIP score was calculated for each patient. 10/167 (5.9%) experienced at least one episode of AP during follow up; 10/10 were pancreatic sufficient (PS). Patients with AP/ARP showed a PIP score ≤0.25 more frequently (6/10) than patients without AP/ARP. The odds ratio (95% CI) of developing pancreatitis was 4.54 (1.22-16.92) for patients with PIP 0.25 (p 0.0151). PIP score was correlated with sweat chloride test (p < 0.01). PIP score, PS status and normal/borderline sweat chloride levels could be applied to predict pancreatitis development in children with CF. ARP could lead to pancreatic insufficiency. Copyright © 2014 European Cystic Fibrosis Society. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Associations of genetic risk scores based on adult adiposity pathways with childhood growth and adiposity measures


    Monnereau, Claire; Vogelezang, Suzanne; Kruithof, Claudia J.; Jaddoe, Vincent W. V.; Felix, Janine F.


    Background Results from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) identified many loci and biological pathways that influence adult body mass index (BMI). We aimed to identify if biological pathways related to adult BMI also affect infant growth and childhood adiposity measures. Methods We used data from a population-based prospective cohort study among 3,975 children with a mean age of 6?years. Genetic risk scores were constructed based on the 97 SNPs associated with adult BMI previously identi...

  12. Histological scoring and associated risk factors of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. (United States)

    Majid, N; Ali, Z; Rahman, M R; Akhter, A; Rajib, R C; Ahmad, F; Sharmin, S; Akond, A K; Huq, N


    Non alcoholic steatohepatitis is a hepatic disorder with histological features of alcohol induced liver disease that occurs in individual who do not consume significant alcohol. Liver biopsy is an important part of the evaluation in term of both grade & stage. A cross sectional study was carried out in the department of Pathology, Dhaka Medical College, Dhaka & department of Hepatology, Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujib Medical University (BSMMU) from July 2007 to June 2009. Total 55 adult subjects of both sex were included on the basis of predefined inclusion & exclusion criteria in this study to evaluate the histological pattern of non alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and its correlation with risk factors. Liver biopsy was done and H & E and Masson's Trichrome stain slides were examined to evaluate the grade and stage of NAFLD. Scoring and semiquantitative assessment of steatosis and NAFLD severity was done according to Kleiner scale known as NAFLD activity score (NAS). The results of Pearson correlation showed only BMI and triglyceride level significantly correlated with NAS score. The results of Spearman's rank correlation showed that BMI, central obesity, triglyceridaemia and age significantly correlated with staging of fibrosis. The results of multiple regression analysis showed that variation of NAS depend on BMI and triglyceride level. The study also revealed that risk factors contributed about 29% risk for the occurrence of non alcoholic steatohepatitis.

  13. A risk score for in-hospital death in patients admitted with ischemic or hemorrhagic stroke. (United States)

    Smith, Eric E; Shobha, Nandavar; Dai, David; Olson, DaiWai M; Reeves, Mathew J; Saver, Jeffrey L; Hernandez, Adrian F; Peterson, Eric D; Fonarow, Gregg C; Schwamm, Lee H


    We aimed to derive and validate a single risk score for predicting death from ischemic stroke (IS), intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), and subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH). Data from 333 865 stroke patients (IS, 82.4%; ICH, 11.2%; SAH, 2.6%; uncertain type, 3.8%) in the Get With The Guidelines-Stroke database were used. In-hospital mortality varied greatly according to stroke type (IS, 5.5%; ICH, 27.2%; SAH, 25.1%; unknown type, 6.0%; Pmortality and to assign point scores for a prediction model in the overall population and in the subset with the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) recorded (37.1%). The c statistic, a measure of how well the models discriminate the risk of death, was 0.78 in the overall validation sample and 0.86 in the model including NIHSS. The model with NIHSS performed nearly as well in each stroke type as in the overall model including all types (c statistics for IS alone, 0.85; for ICH alone, 0.83; for SAH alone, 0.83; uncertain type alone, 0.86). The calibration of the model was excellent, as demonstrated by plots of observed versus predicted mortality. A single prediction score for all stroke types can be used to predict risk of in-hospital death following stroke admission. Incorporation of NIHSS information substantially improves this predictive accuracy.

  14. In-hospital outcome of acute myocardial infarction in correlation with 'thrombolysis in myocardial infarction' risk score

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Masood, A.; Naqvi, M.A.; Jafar, S.S.


    Effective risk stratification is integral to management of acute coronary syndromes (ACS). The Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) risk score for ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) is a simple integer score based on 8 high-risk parameters that can be used at the bedside for risk stratification of patients at presentation with STEMI. To evaluate the prognostic significance of TIMI risk score in a local population group of acute STEMI. The study included 160 cases of STEMI eligible for thrombolysis. TIMI risk score was calculated for each case at the time of presentation and were then followed during their hospital stay for the occurrence of electrical and mechanical complications as well as mortality. The patients were divided into three risk groups, namely 'low risk', 'moderate-risk' and 'high-risk' based on their TIMI scores (0-4 low-risk, 5-8 moderate-risk, 9-14 high risk). The frequencies of complications and deaths were compared among the three risk groups. Post MI arrhythmias were noted in 2.2%, 16% and 50%; cardiogenic shock in 6.7%, 16% and 60%; pulmonary edema in 6.7%, 20% and 80%; mechanical complications of MI in 0%, 8% and 30%; death in 4.4%, 8%, and 60% of patients belonging to low-risk, moderate-risk and high-risk groups respectively. Frequency of complications and death correlated well with TIMI risk score (p=0.001). TIMI risk score correlates well with the frequency of electrical or mechanical complications and death after STEMI. (author)

  15. Portsmouth physiological and operative severity score for the Enumeration of Mortality and morbidity scoring system in general surgical practice and identifying risk factors for poor outcome (United States)

    Tyagi, Ashish; Nagpal, Nitin; Sidhu, D. S.; Singh, Amandeep; Tyagi, Anjali


    Background: Estimation of the outcome is paramount in disease stratification and subsequent management in severely ill surgical patients. Risk scoring helps us quantify the prospects of adverse outcome in a patient. Portsmouth-Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the Enumeration of Mortality and Morbidity (P-POSSUM) the world over has proved itself as a worthy scoring system and the present study was done to evaluate the feasibility of P-POSSUM as a risk scoring system as a tool in efficacious prediction of mortality and morbidity in our demographic profile. Materials and Methods: Validity of P-POSSUM was assessed prospectively in fifty major general surgeries performed at our hospital from May 2011 to October 2012. Data were collected to obtain P-POSSUM score, and statistical analysis was performed. Results: Majority (72%) of patients was male and mean age was 40.24 ± 18.6 years. Seventy-eight percentage procedures were emergency laparotomies commonly performed for perforation peritonitis. Mean physiological score was 17.56 ± 7.6, and operative score was 17.76 ± 4.5 (total score = 35.3 ± 10.4). The ratio of observed to expected mortality rate was 0.86 and morbidity rate was 0.78. Discussion: P-POSSUM accurately predicted both mortality and morbidity in patients who underwent major surgical procedures in our setup. Thus, it helped us in identifying patients who required preferential attention and aggressive management. Widespread application of this tool can result in better distribution of care among high-risk surgical patients. PMID:28250670

  16. Impact of Primary Gleason Grade on Risk Stratification for Gleason Score 7 Prostate Cancers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koontz, Bridget F.; Tsivian, Matvey; Mouraviev, Vladimir; Sun, Leon; Vujaskovic, Zeljko; Moul, Judd; Lee, W. Robert


    Purpose: To evaluate the primary Gleason grade (GG) in Gleason score (GS) 7 prostate cancers for risk of non-organ-confined disease with the goal of optimizing radiotherapy treatment option counseling. Methods: One thousand three hundred thirty-three patients with pathologic GS7 were identified in the Duke Prostate Center research database. Clinical factors including age, race, clinical stage, prostate-specific antigen at diagnosis, and pathologic stage were obtained. Data were stratified by prostate-specific antigen and clinical stage at diagnosis into adapted D’Amico risk groups. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed evaluating for association of primary GG with pathologic outcome. Results: Nine hundred seventy-nine patients had primary GG3 and 354 had GG4. On univariate analyses, GG4 was associated with an increased risk of non-organ-confined disease. On multivariate analysis, GG4 was independently associated with seminal vesicle invasion (SVI) but not extracapsular extension. Patients with otherwise low-risk disease and primary GG3 had a very low risk of SVI (4%). Conclusions: Primary GG4 in GS7 cancers is associated with increased risk of SVI compared with primary GG3. Otherwise low-risk patients with GS 3+4 have a very low risk of SVI and may be candidates for prostate-only radiotherapy modalities.

  17. Impact of Primary Gleason Grade on Risk Stratification for Gleason Score 7 Prostate Cancers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koontz, Bridget F., E-mail: [Department of Radiation Oncology, Duke Prostate Center, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC (United States); Tsivian, Matvey [Division of Urology, Department of Surgery, Duke Prostate Center, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC (United States); Mouraviev, Vladimir [Department of Radiation Oncology, Duke Prostate Center, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC (United States); Sun, Leon [Division of Urology, Department of Surgery, Duke Prostate Center, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC (United States); Vujaskovic, Zeljko [Department of Radiation Oncology, Duke Prostate Center, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC (United States); Moul, Judd [Division of Urology, Department of Surgery, Duke Prostate Center, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC (United States); Lee, W. Robert [Department of Radiation Oncology, Duke Prostate Center, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC (United States)


    Purpose: To evaluate the primary Gleason grade (GG) in Gleason score (GS) 7 prostate cancers for risk of non-organ-confined disease with the goal of optimizing radiotherapy treatment option counseling. Methods: One thousand three hundred thirty-three patients with pathologic GS7 were identified in the Duke Prostate Center research database. Clinical factors including age, race, clinical stage, prostate-specific antigen at diagnosis, and pathologic stage were obtained. Data were stratified by prostate-specific antigen and clinical stage at diagnosis into adapted D'Amico risk groups. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed evaluating for association of primary GG with pathologic outcome. Results: Nine hundred seventy-nine patients had primary GG3 and 354 had GG4. On univariate analyses, GG4 was associated with an increased risk of non-organ-confined disease. On multivariate analysis, GG4 was independently associated with seminal vesicle invasion (SVI) but not extracapsular extension. Patients with otherwise low-risk disease and primary GG3 had a very low risk of SVI (4%). Conclusions: Primary GG4 in GS7 cancers is associated with increased risk of SVI compared with primary GG3. Otherwise low-risk patients with GS 3+4 have a very low risk of SVI and may be candidates for prostate-only radiotherapy modalities.

  18. The New York State risk score for predicting in-hospital/30-day mortality following percutaneous coronary intervention. (United States)

    Hannan, Edward L; Farrell, Louise Szypulski; Walford, Gary; Jacobs, Alice K; Berger, Peter B; Holmes, David R; Stamato, Nicholas J; Sharma, Samin; King, Spencer B


    This study sought to develop a percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) risk score for in-hospital/30-day mortality. Risk scores are simplified linear scores that provide clinicians with quick estimates of patients' short-term mortality rates for informed consent and to determine the appropriate intervention. Earlier PCI risk scores were based on in-hospital mortality. However, for PCI, a substantial percentage of patients die within 30 days of the procedure after discharge. New York's Percutaneous Coronary Interventions Reporting System was used to develop an in-hospital/30-day logistic regression model for patients undergoing PCI in 2010, and this model was converted into a simple linear risk score that estimates mortality rates. The score was validated by applying it to 2009 New York PCI data. Subsequent analyses evaluated the ability of the score to predict complications and length of stay. A total of 54,223 patients were used to develop the risk score. There are 11 risk factors that make up the score, with risk factor scores ranging from 1 to 9, and the highest total score is 34. The score was validated based on patients undergoing PCI in the previous year, and accurately predicted mortality for all patients as well as patients who recently suffered a myocardial infarction (MI). The PCI risk score developed here enables clinicians to estimate in-hospital/30-day mortality very quickly and quite accurately. It accurately predicts mortality for patients undergoing PCI in the previous year and for MI patients, and is also moderately related to perioperative complications and length of stay. Copyright © 2013 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Predicting dementia risk in primary care: development and validation of the Dementia Risk Score using routinely collected data. (United States)

    Walters, K; Hardoon, S; Petersen, I; Iliffe, S; Omar, R Z; Nazareth, I; Rait, G


    Existing dementia risk scores require collection of additional data from patients, limiting their use in practice. Routinely collected healthcare data have the potential to assess dementia risk without the need to collect further information. Our objective was to develop and validate a 5-year dementia risk score derived from primary healthcare data. We used data from general practices in The Health Improvement Network (THIN) database from across the UK, randomly selecting 377 practices for a development cohort and identifying 930,395 patients aged 60-95 years without a recording of dementia, cognitive impairment or memory symptoms at baseline. We developed risk algorithm models for two age groups (60-79 and 80-95 years). An external validation was conducted by validating the model on a separate cohort of 264,224 patients from 95 randomly chosen THIN practices that did not contribute to the development cohort. Our main outcome was 5-year risk of first recorded dementia diagnosis. Potential predictors included sociodemographic, cardiovascular, lifestyle and mental health variables. Dementia incidence was 1.88 (95% CI, 1.83-1.93) and 16.53 (95% CI, 16.15-16.92) per 1000 PYAR for those aged 60-79 (n = 6017) and 80-95 years (n = 7104), respectively. Predictors for those aged 60-79 included age, sex, social deprivation, smoking, BMI, heavy alcohol use, anti-hypertensive drugs, diabetes, stroke/TIA, atrial fibrillation, aspirin, depression. The discrimination and calibration of the risk algorithm were good for the 60-79 years model; D statistic 2.03 (95% CI, 1.95-2.11), C index 0.84 (95% CI, 0.81-0.87), and calibration slope 0.98 (95% CI, 0.93-1.02). The algorithm had a high negative predictive value, but lower positive predictive value at most risk thresholds. Discrimination and calibration were poor for the 80-95 years model. Routinely collected data predicts 5-year risk of recorded diagnosis of dementia for those aged 60-79, but not those aged 80+. This

  20. Development of a novel scoring system for identifying emerging chemical risks in the food chain. (United States)

    Oltmanns, J; Licht, O; Bitsch, A; Bohlen, M-L; Escher, S E; Silano, V; MacLeod, M; Serafimova, R; Kass, G E N; Merten, C


    The European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) is responsible for risk assessment of all aspects of food safety, including the establishment of procedures aimed at the identification of emerging risks to food safety. Here, a scoring system was developed for identifying chemicals registered under the European REACH Regulation that could be of potential concern in the food chain using the following parameters: (i) environmental release based on maximum aggregated tonnages and environmental release categories; (ii) biodegradation in the environment; (iii) bioaccumulation and in vivo and in vitro toxicity. The screening approach was tested on 100 data-rich chemicals registered under the REACH Regulation at aggregated volumes of at least 1000 tonnes per annum. The results show that substance-specific data generated under the REACH Regulation can be used to identify potential emerging risks in the food chain. After application of the screening procedure, priority chemicals can be identified as potentially emerging risk chemicals through the integration of exposure, environmental fate and toxicity. The default approach is to generate a single total score for each substance using a predefined weighting scenario. However, it is also possible to use a pivot table approach to combine the individual scores in different ways that reflect user-defined priorities, which enables a very flexible, iterative definition of screening criteria. Possible applications of the approaches are discussed using illustrative examples. Either approach can then be followed by in-depth evaluation of priority substances to ensure the identification of substances that present a real emerging chemical risk in the food chain.

  1. Risk behavior score: a practical approach for assessing risk among men who have sex with men in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gustavo Machado Rocha


    Full Text Available HIV/AIDS epidemic is not well controlled, and multiple sexual behavior factors help explain high rates of HIV infection among men who have sex with men (MSM. This article proposes to exam the use of a potential risk behavior score for HIV infection, based on the type and number of sexual partners, and condom use, and their associated factors in a sample of MSM in Brazil. A cross sectional RDS (Respondent Driven Sampling study was performed among 3738 MSM aged 18+ years old from ten Brazilian cities. The risk behavior score was composed by the number of male partners and anal condom use in the last year with steady, casual, and commercial partners. Most participants were 25+ years old (58.1%, non-white (83.1%, and single (84.9%. Final weighted ordinal logistic model showed that age ≤ 25 years old (p = 0.037, homosexual or bisexual identity (p < 0.001, sexual initiation before 15-year-old (p < 0.001, having sex with men only in the last 12 months (p < 0.001, frequent alcohol and illicit drug use (p < 0.001, and use of local sites to meet sexual partners in the last month were independently associated with higher scores of risky behavior. Specific strategies should be developed aimed at the MSM population. Additionally, pre-exposed prophylaxis (Prep should be considered for those at higher score as a strategy for reducing risk for HIV infection in this population. Keywords: Homosexuals, High-risk sex, Unsafe sex, HIV, AIDS

  2. Decreasing sedentary behavior by 30 minutes per day reduces cardiovascular disease risk factors in rural Americans. (United States)

    Saleh, Zyad T; Lennie, Terry A; Mudd-Martin, Gia; Bailey, Alison L; Novak, Michael J; Biddle, Martha; Khalil, Amani A; Darawad, Muhammad; Moser, Debra K


    Regular physical activity has been associated with reduced cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors; however, a decrease in the amount of time spent during the remainder of the day in sedentary behavior may be equally important. The aim of this study was to examine the effects of a decrease in sedentary behavior on CVD risk factors among 205 individuals living in rural Appalachia. All participants received a comprehensive CVD risk reduction life-style intervention and measurement of major CVD risk factors and physical activity levels. Participants were divided into: 1) Adopters: those who decreased their sedentary behavior by 30 min or more per day post-intervention and 2) Non-adopters: those who did not. Repeated measures analysis of variance showed a significant group by time interaction showing that Adopters had a greater reduction in body weight and BMI than Non-adopters. These findings demonstrate that decreasing sedentary behavior is important for achieving optimal body weight. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Risk score for predicting long-term mortality after coronary artery bypass graft surgery. (United States)

    Wu, Chuntao; Camacho, Fabian T; Wechsler, Andrew S; Lahey, Stephen; Culliford, Alfred T; Jordan, Desmond; Gold, Jeffrey P; Higgins, Robert S D; Smith, Craig R; Hannan, Edward L


    No simplified bedside risk scores have been created to predict long-term mortality after coronary artery bypass graft surgery. The New York State Cardiac Surgery Reporting System was used to identify 8597 patients who underwent isolated coronary artery bypass graft surgery in July through December 2000. The National Death Index was used to ascertain patients' vital statuses through December 31, 2007. A Cox proportional hazards model was fit to predict death after CABG surgery using preprocedural risk factors. Then, points were assigned to significant predictors of death on the basis of the values of their regression coefficients. For each possible point total, the predicted risks of death at years 1, 3, 5, and 7 were calculated. It was found that the 7-year mortality rate was 24.2 in the study population. Significant predictors of death included age, body mass index, ejection fraction, unstable hemodynamic state or shock, left main coronary artery disease, cerebrovascular disease, peripheral arterial disease, congestive heart failure, malignant ventricular arrhythmia, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, diabetes mellitus, renal failure, and history of open heart surgery. The points assigned to these risk factors ranged from 1 to 7; possible point totals for each patient ranged from 0 to 28. The observed and predicted risks of death at years 1, 3, 5, and 7 across patient groups stratified by point totals were highly correlated. The simplified risk score accurately predicted the risk of mortality after coronary artery bypass graft surgery and can be used for informed consent and as an aid in determining treatment choice.

  4. Population-based metabolic syndrome risk score and its determinants: The Isfahan Healthy Heart Program

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohsen Hosseini


    Full Text Available Background: Metabolic syndrome (MetSy, an important predisposing factor for the most of noncommunicable diseases, has become a global pandemic. Given different definitions used for the MetSy, recently using a score termed "continuous MetSy risk score (CMetSyS" is recommended. The aim of this study was to provide a CMetSyS in a population-based sample of Iranian adults and to assess its determinants. Materials and Methods: We used the data of the baseline survey of a community trial entitled "the Isfahan health heart program." The MetSy was defined according to the Revised National Cholesterol Education Program Third Adult Treatment Panel. All probable predictive models and their predictive performance were provided using leave-one-out cross-validated logistic regression and the receiver operation characteristic curve methods. Multiple linear regression was performed to assess factors associated with the CMetSyS. Results: The study population consisted of 8313 persons (49.9% male, mean age 38.54 ± 15.86 years. The MetSy was documented in 1539 persons (21.86%. Triglycerides and waist circumference were the best predictive components, and fasting plasma glucose had the lowest area under curve (AUC. The AUC for our best model was 95.36 (94.83-95.83%. The best predictive cutoff for this risk score was −1.151 with 89% sensitivity and 87.93% specificity. Conclusion: We provided four population-based leave-one-out cross-validated risk score models, with moderate to perfect predictive performance to identify the MetSy in Iranian adults. The CMetSyS had significant associations with high sensitive C-reactive protein, body mass index, leisure time, and workplace physical activity as well as age and gender.

  5. Applicability of Two International Risk Scores in Cardiac Surgery in a Reference Center in Brazil

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garofallo, Silvia Bueno; Machado, Daniel Pinheiro; Rodrigues, Clarissa Garcia; Bordim, Odemir Jr.; Kalil, Renato A. K.; Portal, Vera Lúcia, E-mail: [Post-Graduation Program in Health Sciences: Cardiology, Instituto de Cardiologia/Fundação Universitária de Cardiologia, Porto Alegre, RS (Brazil)


    The applicability of international risk scores in heart surgery (HS) is not well defined in centers outside of North America and Europe. To evaluate the capacity of the Parsonnet Bernstein 2000 (BP) and EuroSCORE (ES) in predicting in-hospital mortality (IHM) in patients undergoing HS at a reference hospital in Brazil and to identify risk predictors (RP). Retrospective cohort study of 1,065 patients, with 60.3% patients underwent coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG), 32.7%, valve surgery and 7.0%, CABG combined with valve surgery. Additive and logistic scores models, the area under the ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristic) curve (AUC) and the standardized mortality ratio (SMR) were calculated. Multivariate logistic regression was performed to identify the RP. Overall mortality was 7.8%. The baseline characteristics of the patients were significantly different in relation to BP and ES. AUCs of the logistic and additive BP were 0.72 (95% CI, from 0.66 to 0.78 p = 0.74), and of ES they were 0.73 (95% CI; 0.67 to 0.79 p = 0.80). The calculation of the SMR in BP was 1.59 (95% CI; 1.27 to 1.99) and in ES, 1.43 (95% CI; 1.14 to 1.79). Seven RP of IHM were identified: age, serum creatinine > 2.26 mg/dL, active endocarditis, systolic pulmonary arterial pressure > 60 mmHg, one or more previous HS, CABG combined with valve surgery and diabetes mellitus. Local scores, based on the real situation of local populations, must be developed for better assessment of risk in cardiac surgery.

  6. Applicability of Two International Risk Scores in Cardiac Surgery in a Reference Center in Brazil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garofallo, Silvia Bueno; Machado, Daniel Pinheiro; Rodrigues, Clarissa Garcia; Bordim, Odemir Jr.; Kalil, Renato A. K.; Portal, Vera Lúcia


    The applicability of international risk scores in heart surgery (HS) is not well defined in centers outside of North America and Europe. To evaluate the capacity of the Parsonnet Bernstein 2000 (BP) and EuroSCORE (ES) in predicting in-hospital mortality (IHM) in patients undergoing HS at a reference hospital in Brazil and to identify risk predictors (RP). Retrospective cohort study of 1,065 patients, with 60.3% patients underwent coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG), 32.7%, valve surgery and 7.0%, CABG combined with valve surgery. Additive and logistic scores models, the area under the ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristic) curve (AUC) and the standardized mortality ratio (SMR) were calculated. Multivariate logistic regression was performed to identify the RP. Overall mortality was 7.8%. The baseline characteristics of the patients were significantly different in relation to BP and ES. AUCs of the logistic and additive BP were 0.72 (95% CI, from 0.66 to 0.78 p = 0.74), and of ES they were 0.73 (95% CI; 0.67 to 0.79 p = 0.80). The calculation of the SMR in BP was 1.59 (95% CI; 1.27 to 1.99) and in ES, 1.43 (95% CI; 1.14 to 1.79). Seven RP of IHM were identified: age, serum creatinine > 2.26 mg/dL, active endocarditis, systolic pulmonary arterial pressure > 60 mmHg, one or more previous HS, CABG combined with valve surgery and diabetes mellitus. Local scores, based on the real situation of local populations, must be developed for better assessment of risk in cardiac surgery

  7. Correlates and geographic patterns of knowledge that physical activity decreases cancer risk. (United States)

    Ramírez, A Susana; Finney Rutten, Lila J; Vanderpool, Robin C; Moser, Richard P; Hesse, Bradford W


    While many lifestyle-related cancer risk factors including tobacco use, poor diet, and sun exposure are well recognized by the general public, the role of physical activity in decreasing cancer risk is less recognized. Studies have demonstrated gender-, race/ethnicity-, and age-based disparities in cancer risk factor knowledge; however, beliefs and geographic factors that may be related to knowledge are under-examined. In this study, we analyzed data from the 2008 Health Information National Trends Survey to determine correlates of knowledge of the relationship between physical activity and reduced cancer risk in the adult US population. We generated geographic information system maps to examine the geographic distribution of this knowledge. Results revealed that there is confusion among US adults about the relationship between physical activity and cancer risk: Respondents who believed that cancer is not preventable had significantly lower odds of knowing that physical activity reduces cancer risk (p physical activity reduces cancer risk (p physical activity guidelines were also significantly more likely to know that physical activity reduces cancer risk (p physical inactivity. Correlates of cancer risk factor knowledge point to opportunities for targeted interventions.

  8. Applicability of the heart failure Readmission Risk score: A first European study. (United States)

    Formiga, Francesc; Masip, Joan; Chivite, David; Corbella, Xavier


    The Readmission Risk score (RR score) has been considered useful to predict Medicare/Medicaid patients' likelihood of 30-day hospital readmission for heart failure (HF). To our knowledge, the accuracy of this prediction model has not been independently validated in other clinical circumstances in Europe. From July 2013 to December 2014, all patients who survived to a first admission due to decompensated HF at our tertiary care teaching hospital were retrospectively included in the study. The RR score was calculated in all patients to predict future 30 and 90-day unplanned all-cause readmissions. A total of 679 patients were included, of them, 52 patients (7.6%) were readmitted by any cause within 30days after discharge, and 98 (14.4%) within 90days. When compared, the average RR scores for patients readmitted was significantly higher to those who did not, either within 30days (22.7 vs. 20.1) or 90days (22.7 vs. 20.1) of discharge. The 30-day C-statistic was 0.649 (95% CI 0.574-0.723) and the 90-day 0.621 (95% CI 0.560-0.681). There was a significant increase in readmission percentages at 30 and 90days with respect to increasing quartiles of RR score. Our results only support a modest applicability of this predictive model in patients at 30 and 90days, after a first hospitalization for decompensated HF. Probably, the fact that our readmission rate in patients firstly admitted due to HF was very low, generated a bias in the study, discouraging the use of this score in the de novo HF patients. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Predicting asthma in preschool children with asthma-like symptoms : Validating and updating the PIAMA risk score

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hafkamp-de Groen, Esther; Lingsma, Hester F.; Caudri, Daan; Levie, Deborah; Wijga, Alet; Koppelman, Gerard H.; Duijts, Liesbeth; Jaddoe, Vincent W. V.; Smit, Henriette A.; Kerkhof, Marjan; Moll, Henriette A.; Hofman, Albert; Steyerberg, Ewout W.; de Jongste, Johan C.; Raat, Hein


    Background: The Prevention and Incidence of Asthma and Mite Allergy (PIAMA) risk score predicts the probability of having asthma at school age among preschool children with suggestive symptoms. Objective: We sought to externally validate the PIAMA risk score at different ages and in ethnic and

  10. The development, validation, and utility of the Diabetes Prevention Trial-Type 1 Risk Score (DPTRS). (United States)

    Sosenko, Jay M; Skyler, Jay S; Palmer, Jerry P


    This report details the development, validation, and utility of the Diabetes Prevention Trial-Type 1 (DPT-1) Risk Score (DPTRS) for type 1 diabetes (T1D). Proportional hazards regression was used to develop the DPTRS model which includes the glucose and C-peptide sums from oral glucose tolerance tests at 30, 60, 90, and 120 min, the log fasting C-peptide, age, and the log BMI. The DPTRS was externally validated in the TrialNet Natural History Study cohort (TNNHS). In a study of the application of the DPTRS, the findings showed that it could be used to identify normoglycemic individuals who were at a similar risk for T1D as those with dysglycemia. The DPTRS could also be used to identify lower risk dysglycemic individuals. Risk estimates of individuals deemed to be at higher risk according to DPTRS values did not differ significantly between the DPT-1 and the TNNHS; whereas, the risk estimates for those with dysglycemia were significantly higher in DPT-1. Individuals with very high DPTRS values were found to be at such marked risk for T1D that they could reasonably be considered to be in a pre-diabetic state. The findings indicate that the DPTRS has utility in T1D prevention trials and for identifying pre-diabetic individuals.

  11. Risk Pricing in Emerging Economies: Credit Scoring and Private Banking in Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yiannis Anagnostopoulos


    Full Text Available Iran’s banking industry as a developing country is comparatively very new to risk management practices. An inevitable predictive implication of this rapid growth is the growing concerns with regard to credit risk management which is the motivation of conducting this research. The paper focuses on the credit scoring aspect of credit risk management using both logit and probit regression approaches. Real data on corporate customers are available for conducting this research which is also a contribution to this area for all other developing countries. Our questions focus on how future customers can be classified in terms of credibility, which models and methods are more effective in better capturing risks. Findings suggest that probit approaches are more effective in capturing the significance of variables and goodness-of-fitness tests. Seven variables of the Ohlson O-Score model are used: CL_CA, INTWO, OENEG, TA_TL, SIZE, WCAP_TA, and ROA; two were found to be statistically significant in logit (ROA, TL_TA and three were statistically significant in probit (ROA, TL_TA, SIZE. Also, CL_CA, ROA, and WCAP_TA were the three variables with an unexpected correlation to the probability of default. The prediction power with the cut-off point is set equal to 26% and 56.91% for defaulted customers in both logit and probit models. However, logit achieved 54.85% correct estimation of defaulted assets, 0.37% more than what probit estimated.

  12. Chronic Latent Magnesium Deficiency in Obesity Decreases Positive Effects of Vitamin D on Cardiometabolic Risk Indicators. (United States)

    Stokic, Edita; Romani, Andrea; Ilincic, Branislava; Kupusinac, Aleksandar; Stosic, Zoran; Isenovic, Esma R


    Obesity and micronutrient deficiencies contribute to the risk of cardiometabolic diseases such are type 2 diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular disease (CVD). We examined the frequency of concomitant deficit of magnesium (Mg) and vitamin D in obese patients and evaluated the connection of these combined deficiencies with indicators of cardiometabolic risk in non-diabetic subjects. Non-diabetic middle aged adults (n = 80; mean age 36 ± 4 years, 52% women) were recruited based on weight/adiposity parameters [i.e. body mass index (BMI) and body fat percentage (FAT%)]. Cardiometabolic risk indicators [insulin resistance (Homeostatic Model Assessment for insulin resistance (HOMA-IR)) and CVD risk (Framingham risk score for predicting 10-year CVD)], Mg status [i.e. total serum Mg concentration (TMg), chronic latent Mg deficiency (CLMD) - 0.75-0.85 mmol/L], vitamin D status [i.e. serum concentration of 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D), vitamin D deficiency <50 nmol/l] were assessed. Among obese subjects 36% presented a combination of vitamin D deficiency and CLMD. In all studied patients, 25(OH)D and TMg levels both, individually and combined, showed a negative linear correlation with HOMA-IR and CVD risk. In subjects with CLMD (TMg ˂0.85 mmol/L), a negative linear coefficient was found between 25(OH)D and, HOMA-IR and CVD risk, compared with subjects with normal TMg status (TMg ≥0.85 mmol/L). CLMD and vitamin D deficiency may commonly be present in obese non-diabetic subjects. Individually and combined, both deficiencies predispose non-diabetic patients to increased risk of cardiometabolic diseases. Maintaining normal Mg status may improve the beneficial effects of vitamin D on cardiometabolic risk indicators. Copyright© Bentham Science Publishers; For any queries, please email at

  13. Assessment of three risk evaluation systems for patients aged ≥70 in East China: performance of SinoSCORE, EuroSCORE II and the STS risk evaluation system. (United States)

    Shan, Lingtong; Ge, Wen; Pu, Yiwei; Cheng, Hong; Cang, Zhengqiang; Zhang, Xing; Li, Qifan; Xu, Anyang; Wang, Qi; Gu, Chang; Zhang, Yangyang


    To assess and compare the predictive ability of three risk evaluation systems (SinoSCORE, EuroSCORE II and the STS risk evaluation system) in patients aged ≥70, and who underwent coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) in East China. Three risk evaluation systems were applied to 1,946 consecutive patients who underwent isolated CABG from January 2004 to September 2016 in two hospitals. Patients were divided into two subsets according to their age: elderly group (age ≥70) with a younger group (age evaluation system were 0.78(0.64)%, 1.43(1.14)% and 0.78(0.77)%, respectively. SinoSCORE achieved the best discrimination (the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) = 0.829), followed by the STS risk evaluation system (AUC = 0.790) and EuroSCORE II (AUC = 0.769) in the entire cohort. In the elderly group, the observed mortality rate was 4.82% while it was 1.38% in the younger group. SinoSCORE (AUC = .829) also achieved the best discrimination in the elderly group, followed by the STS risk evaluation system (AUC = .730) and EuroSCORE II (AUC = 0.640) while all three risk evaluation systems all had good performances in the younger group. SinoSCORE, EuroSCORE II and the STS risk evaluation system all achieved positive calibrations in the entire cohort and subsets. The performance of the three risk evaluation systems was not ideal in the entire cohort. In the elderly group, SinoSCORE appeared to achieve better predictive efficiency than EuroSCORE II and the STS risk evaluation system.

  14. A simplified clinical risk score predicts the need for early endoscopy in non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding. (United States)

    Tammaro, Leonardo; Buda, Andrea; Di Paolo, Maria Carla; Zullo, Angelo; Hassan, Cesare; Riccio, Elisabetta; Vassallo, Roberto; Caserta, Luigi; Anderloni, Andrea; Natali, Alessandro


    Pre-endoscopic triage of patients who require an early upper endoscopy can improve management of patients with non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding. To validate a new simplified clinical score (T-score) to assess the need of an early upper endoscopy in non variceal bleeding patients. Secondary outcomes were re-bleeding rate, 30-day bleeding-related mortality. In this prospective, multicentre study patients with bleeding who underwent upper endoscopy were enrolled. The accuracy for high risk endoscopic stigmata of the T-score was compared with that of the Glasgow Blatchford risk score. Overall, 602 patients underwent early upper endoscopy, and 472 presented with non-variceal bleeding. High risk endoscopic stigmata were detected in 145 (30.7%) cases. T-score sensitivity and specificity for high risk endoscopic stigmata and bleeding-related mortality was 96% and 30%, and 80% and 71%, respectively. No statistically difference in predicting high risk endoscopic stigmata between T-score and Glasgow Blatchford risk score was observed (ROC curve: 0.72 vs. 0.69, p=0.11). The two scores were also similar in predicting re-bleeding (ROC curve: 0.64 vs. 0.63, p=0.4) and 30-day bleeding-related mortality (ROC curve: 0.78 vs. 0.76, p=0.3). The T-score appeared to predict high risk endoscopic stigmata, re-bleeding and mortality with similar accuracy to Glasgow Blatchford risk score. Such a score may be helpful for the prediction of high-risk patients who need a very early therapeutic endoscopy. Copyright © 2014 Editrice Gastroenterologica Italiana S.r.l. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Demographic determinants of risk, colon distribution and density scores of diverticular disease. (United States)

    Golder, Mark; Ster, Irina Chis; Babu, Pratusha; Sharma, Amita; Bayat, Muhammad; Farah, Abdulkadir


    To investigate associations between ethnicity, age and sex and the risk, colon distribution and density scores of diverticular disease (DD). Barium enemas were examined in 1000 patients: 410 male, 590 female; 760 whites, 62 Asians, 44 black africans (BAs), and 134 other blacks (OBs). Risks and diverticula density of left-sided DD (LSDD) and right-sided-component DD (RSCDD = right-sided DD + right and left DD + Pan-DD) were compared using logistic regression. Four hundred and forty-seven patients had DD (322 LSDD and 125 RSCDD). Adjusted risks: (1) LSDD: each year increase in age increased the odds by 6% (95% CI: 5-8, SE: 0.8%, P colonic DD might be more common and has higher diverticula density in the west than previously reported. BAs appear predisposed to DD, whereas other ethnic differences appear conserved following migration.

  16. Evaluation of Polygenic Risk Scores for Breast and Ovarian Cancer Risk Prediction in BRCA1 and BRCA2 Mutation Carriers (United States)

    Kuchenbaecker, Karoline B.; McGuffog, Lesley; Barrowdale, Daniel; Lee, Andrew; Soucy, Penny; Healey, Sue; Dennis, Joe; Lush, Michael; Robson, Mark; Spurdle, Amanda B.; Ramus, Susan J.; Mavaddat, Nasim; Terry, Mary Beth; Neuhausen, Susan L.; Hamann, Ute; Southey, Melissa; John, Esther M.; Chung, Wendy K.; Daly, Mary B.; Buys, Saundra S.; Goldgar, David E.; Dorfling, Cecilia M.; van Rensburg, Elizabeth J.; Ding, Yuan Chun; Ejlertsen, Bent; Gerdes, Anne-Marie; Hansen, Thomas V. O.; Slager, Susan; Hallberg, Emily; Benitez, Javier; Osorio, Ana; Cohen, Nancy; Lawler, William; Weitzel, Jeffrey N.; Peterlongo, Paolo; Pensotti, Valeria; Dolcetti, Riccardo; Barile, Monica; Bonanni, Bernardo; Azzollini, Jacopo; Manoukian, Siranoush; Peissel, Bernard; Radice, Paolo; Savarese, Antonella; Papi, Laura; Giannini, Giuseppe; Fostira, Florentia; Konstantopoulou, Irene; Adlard, Julian; Brewer, Carole; Cook, Jackie; Davidson, Rosemarie; Eccles, Diana; Eeles, Ros; Ellis, Steve; Frost, Debra; Hodgson, Shirley; Izatt, Louise; Lalloo, Fiona; Ong, Kai-ren; Godwin, Andrew K.; Arnold, Norbert; Dworniczak, Bernd; Engel, Christoph; Gehrig, Andrea; Hahnen, Eric; Hauke, Jan; Kast, Karin; Meindl, Alfons; Niederacher, Dieter; Schmutzler, Rita Katharina; Varon-Mateeva, Raymonda; Wang-Gohrke, Shan; Wappenschmidt, Barbara; Barjhoux, Laure; Collonge-Rame, Marie-Agnès; Elan, Camille; Golmard, Lisa; Barouk-Simonet, Emmanuelle; Lesueur, Fabienne; Mazoyer, Sylvie; Sokolowska, Joanna; Stoppa-Lyonnet, Dominique; Isaacs, Claudine; Claes, Kathleen B. M.; Poppe, Bruce; de la Hoya, Miguel; Garcia-Barberan, Vanesa; Aittomäki, Kristiina; Nevanlinna, Heli; Ausems, Margreet G. E. M.; de Lange, J. L.; Gómez Garcia, Encarna B.; Hogervorst, Frans B. L.; Kets, Carolien M.; Meijers-Heijboer, Hanne E. J.; Oosterwijk, Jan C.; Rookus, Matti A.; van Asperen, Christi J.; van den Ouweland, Ans M. W.; van Doorn, Helena C.; van Os, Theo A. M.; Kwong, Ava; Olah, Edith; Diez, Orland; Brunet, Joan; Lazaro, Conxi; Teulé, Alex; Gronwald, Jacek; Jakubowska, Anna; Kaczmarek, Katarzyna; Lubinski, Jan; Sukiennicki, Grzegorz; Barkardottir, Rosa B.; Chiquette, Jocelyne; Agata, Simona; Montagna, Marco; Teixeira, Manuel R.; Park, Sue Kyung; Olswold, Curtis; Tischkowitz, Marc; Foretova, Lenka; Gaddam, Pragna; Vijai, Joseph; Pfeiler, Georg; Rappaport-Fuerhauser, Christine; Singer, Christian F.; Tea, Muy-Kheng M.; Greene, Mark H.; Loud, Jennifer T.; Rennert, Gad; Imyanitov, Evgeny N.; Hulick, Peter J.; Hays, John L.; Piedmonte, Marion; Rodriguez, Gustavo C.; Martyn, Julie; Glendon, Gord; Mulligan, Anna Marie; Andrulis, Irene L.; Toland, Amanda Ewart; Jensen, Uffe Birk; Kruse, Torben A.; Pedersen, Inge Sokilde; Thomassen, Mads; Caligo, Maria A.; Teo, Soo-Hwang; Berger, Raanan; Friedman, Eitan; Laitman, Yael; Arver, Brita; Borg, Ake; Ehrencrona, Hans; Rantala, Johanna; Olopade, Olufunmilayo I.; Ganz, Patricia A.; Nussbaum, Robert L.; Bradbury, Angela R.; Domchek, Susan M.; Nathanson, Katherine L.; Arun, Banu K.; James, Paul; Karlan, Beth Y.; Lester, Jenny; Simard, Jacques; Pharoah, Paul D. P.; Offit, Kenneth; Couch, Fergus J.; Chenevix-Trench, Georgia; Easton, Douglas F.


    Background: Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified 94 common single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with breast cancer (BC) risk and 18 associated with ovarian cancer (OC) risk. Several of these are also associated with risk of BC or OC for women who carry a pathogenic mutation in the high-risk BC and OC genes BRCA1 or BRCA2. The combined effects of these variants on BC or OC risk for BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers have not yet been assessed while their clinical management could benefit from improved personalized risk estimates. Methods: We constructed polygenic risk scores (PRS) using BC and OC susceptibility SNPs identified through population-based GWAS: for BC (overall, estrogen receptor [ER]–positive, and ER-negative) and for OC. Using data from 15 252 female BRCA1 and 8211 BRCA2 carriers, the association of each PRS with BC or OC risk was evaluated using a weighted cohort approach, with time to diagnosis as the outcome and estimation of the hazard ratios (HRs) per standard deviation increase in the PRS. Results: The PRS for ER-negative BC displayed the strongest association with BC risk in BRCA1 carriers (HR = 1.27, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.23 to 1.31, P = 8.2×10−53). In BRCA2 carriers, the strongest association with BC risk was seen for the overall BC PRS (HR = 1.22, 95% CI = 1.17 to 1.28, P = 7.2×10−20). The OC PRS was strongly associated with OC risk for both BRCA1 and BRCA2 carriers. These translate to differences in absolute risks (more than 10% in each case) between the top and bottom deciles of the PRS distribution; for example, the OC risk was 6% by age 80 years for BRCA2 carriers at the 10th percentile of the OC PRS compared with 19% risk for those at the 90th percentile of PRS. Conclusions: BC and OC PRS are predictive of cancer risk in BRCA1 and BRCA2 carriers. Incorporation of the PRS into risk prediction models has promise to better inform decisions on cancer risk management. PMID

  17. A Study of Correlation of Neck Circumference with Framingham Risk Score as a Predictor of Coronary Artery Disease. (United States)

    Koppad, Anand K; Kaulgud, Ram S; Arun, B S


    It has been observed that metabolic syndrome is risk factor for Coronary Artery Disease (CAD) and exerts its effects through fat deposition and vascular aging. CAD has been acknowledged as a leading cause of death. In earlier studies, the metabolic risk has been estimated by Framingham risk score. Recent studies have shown that Neck Circumference (NC) has a good correlation with other traditional anthropometric measurements and can be used as marker of obesity. It also correlates with Framingham risk score, which is slightly more sophisticated measure of CAD risk. To assess the risk of CAD in a subject based on NC and to correlate the NC to Framingham risk score. The present cross-sectional study, done at Karnataka Institute of Medical Sciences, Hubli, Karnataka, India, includes 100 subjects. The study duration was of one year from 1 st January 2015 to 31 st December 2015. Anthropometric indices Body Mass Index (BMI) and NC were correlated with 10 year CAD risk as calculated by Framingham risk score. The correlation between BMI, NC, vascular age and Framingham risk score was calculated using Karl Pearson's correlation method. NC has a strong correlation with 10 year CAD risk (p≤0.001). NC was significantly greater in males as compared to females (p≤0.001). Males had greater risk of cardiovascular disease as reflected by higher 10 year Framingham risk score (p≤0.0035). NC gives simple and easy prediction of CAD risk and is more reliable than traditional risk markers like BMI. NC correlates positively with 10 year Framingham risk score.

  18. Decreased importance of environmental risk factors for childhood asthma from 1996 to 2006. (United States)

    Bjerg, A; Hedman, L; Perzanowski, M; Wennergren, G; Lundbäck, B; Rönmark, E


    The large increase in asthma prevalence continues in several, but not all areas. Despite the individual risk factors that have been identified, the reasons for the observed trends in prevalence are largely unknown. This study sought to characterize what trends in risk factors accompanied trends in asthma prevalence. Two population-based cohorts of 7- to 8-year-old children from the same Swedish study areas examined by expanded International Study of Asthma and Allergy in Childhood questionnaires were compared 10 years apart. In 1996 and 2006, 3430 (97% participation) and 2585 (96% participation) questionnaires were completed, respectively. A subset was skin-prick-tested: in 1996 and 2006, 2148 (88% participation) and 1700 (90% participation) children, respectively. The adjusted population-attributable fraction (aPAF) was calculated using the prevalence and multivariate odds ratio of each risk factor. The prevalence of current asthma and wheeze was similar in 1996 and 2006. Allergic sensitization, however, increased from 21% to 30%. The prevalence of parental asthma increased from 17% to 24%, while respiratory infections and maternal smoking decreased (60% to 29% and 32% to 16%, respectively). The aPAFs of non-environmental risk factors for current asthma increased in 1996-2006: allergic sensitization from 35% to 41%, parental asthma from 27% to 45% and male sex from 20% to 25%. Conversely, the aPAFs of environmental risk factors decreased: respiratory infections from 36% to 32% and damp home and maternal smoking from 14% and 19%, respectively, to near zero in 2006. From 1996 to 2006, the non-environmental risk factors parental asthma, allergic sensitization and male sex had an increasing or constant importance for current asthma in 7- to 8-year-old children. The importance of the environmental exposures damp home, respiratory infections and maternal smoking decreased. This counterbalancing in risk factors may explain the level of prevalence of current asthma.

  19. 'Mechanical restraint-confounders, risk, alliance score': testing the clinical validity of a new risk assessment instrument. (United States)

    Deichmann Nielsen, Lea; Bech, Per; Hounsgaard, Lise; Alkier Gildberg, Frederik


    Unstructured risk assessment, as well as confounders (underlying reasons for the patient's risk behaviour and alliance), risk behaviour, and parameters of alliance, have been identified as factors that prolong the duration of mechanical restraint among forensic mental health inpatients. To clinically validate a new, structured short-term risk assessment instrument called the Mechanical Restraint-Confounders, Risk, Alliance Score (MR-CRAS), with the intended purpose of supporting the clinicians' observation and assessment of the patient's readiness to be released from mechanical restraint. The content and layout of MR-CRAS and its user manual were evaluated using face validation by forensic mental health clinicians, content validation by an expert panel, and pilot testing within two, closed forensic mental health inpatient units. The three sub-scales (Confounders, Risk, and a parameter of Alliance) showed excellent content validity. The clinical validations also showed that MR-CRAS was perceived and experienced as a comprehensible, relevant, comprehensive, and useable risk assessment instrument. MR-CRAS contains 18 clinically valid items, and the instrument can be used to support the clinical decision-making regarding the possibility of releasing the patient from mechanical restraint. The present three studies have clinically validated a short MR-CRAS scale that is currently being psychometrically tested in a larger study.

  20. Personalized Prognostic Risk Score for Long-Term Survival for Children with Acute Leukemia after Allogeneic Transplantation. (United States)

    Bitan, Menachem; Ahn, Kwang Woo; Millard, Heather R; Pulsipher, Michael A; Abdel-Azim, Hisham; Auletta, Jeffery J; Brown, Valerie; Chan, Ka Wah; Diaz, Miguel Angel; Dietz, Andrew; Vincent, Marta González; Guilcher, Gregory; Hale, Gregory A; Hayashi, Robert J; Keating, Amy; Mehta, Parinda; Myers, Kasiani; Page, Kristin; Prestidge, Tim; Shah, Nirali N; Smith, Angela R; Woolfrey, Ann; Thiel, Elizabeth; Davies, Stella M; Eapen, Mary


    We studied leukemia-free (LFS) and overall survival (OS) in children with acute myeloid (AML, n = 790) and acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL, n = 1096) who underwent transplantation between 2000 and 2010 and who survived for at least 1 year in remission after related or unrelated donor transplantation. Analysis of patient-, disease-, and transplantation characteristics and acute and chronic graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) was performed to identify factors with adverse effects on LFS and OS. These data were used to develop risk scores for survival. We did not identify any prognostic factors beyond 4 years after transplantation for AML and beyond 3 years for ALL. Risk score for survival for AML includes age, disease status at transplantation, cytogenetic risk group, and chronic GVHD. For ALL, the risk score includes age at transplantation and chronic GVHD. The 10-year probabilities of OS for AML with good (score 0, 1, or 2), intermediate (score 3), and poor risk (score 4, 5, 6, or 7) were 94%, 87%, and 68%, respectively. The 10-year probabilities of OS for ALL were 89% and 80% for good (score 0 or 1) and poor risk (score 2), respectively. Identifying children at risk for late mortality with early intervention may mitigate some excess late mortality. Copyright © 2017 The American Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Risk stratification in cardiovascular disease primary prevention - scoring systems, novel markers, and imaging techniques.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Zannad, Faiez


    The aim of this paper is to review and discuss current methods of risk stratification for cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention, emerging biomarkers, and imaging techniques, and their relative merits and limitations. This report is based on discussions that took place among experts in the area during a special CardioVascular Clinical Trialists workshop organized by the European Society of Cardiology Working Group on Cardiovascular Pharmacology and Drug Therapy in September 2009. Classical risk factors such as blood pressure and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels remain the cornerstone of risk estimation in primary prevention but their use as a guide to management is limited by several factors: (i) thresholds for drug treatment vary with the available evidence for cost-effectiveness and benefit-to-risk ratios; (ii) assessment may be imprecise; (iii) residual risk may remain, even with effective control of dyslipidemia and hypertension. Novel measures include C-reactive protein, lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A(2) , genetic markers, and markers of subclinical organ damage, for which there are varying levels of evidence. High-resolution ultrasound and magnetic resonance imaging to assess carotid atherosclerotic lesions have potential but require further validation, standardization, and proof of clinical usefulness in the general population. In conclusion, classical risk scoring systems are available and inexpensive but have a number of limitations. Novel risk markers and imaging techniques may have a place in drug development and clinical trial design. However, their additional value above and beyond classical risk factors has yet to be determined for risk-guided therapy in CVD prevention.

  2. Identification of a DMBT1 polymorphism associated with increased breast cancer risk and decreased promoter activity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tchatchou, Sandrine; Riedel, Angela; Lyer, Stefan


    ,466 unrelated German controls. Promoter studies in breast cancer cells demonstrate that the risk-increasing DMBT1 -93T allele displays significantly decreased promoter activity compared to the DMBT1 -93C allele, resulting in a loss of promoter activity. The data suggest that DMBT1 polymorphisms in the 5'-region......According to present estimations, the unfavorable combination of alleles with low penetrance but high prevalence in the population might account for the major part of hereditary breast cancer risk. Deleted in Malignant Brain Tumors 1 (DMBT1) has been proposed as a tumor suppressor for breast cancer...... and other cancer types. Genomewide mapping in mice further identified Dmbt1 as a potential modulator of breast cancer risk. Here, we report the association of two frequent and linked single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) with increased breast cancer risk in women above the age of 60 years: DMBT1 c.-93C...

  3. Comparison of three contemporary risk scores for mortality following elective abdominal aortic aneurysm repair. (United States)

    Grant, S W; Hickey, G L; Carlson, E D; McCollum, C N


    A number of contemporary risk prediction models for mortality following elective abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair have been developed. Before a model is used either in clinical practice or to risk-adjust surgical outcome data it is important that its performance is assessed in external validation studies. The British Aneurysm Repair (BAR) score, Medicare, and Vascular Governance North West (VGNW) models were validated using an independent prospectively collected sample of multicentre clinical audit data. Consecutive, data on 1,124 patients undergoing elective AAA repair at 17 hospitals in the north-west of England and Wales between April 2011 and March 2013 were analysed. The outcome measure was in-hospital mortality. Model calibration (observed to expected ratio with chi-square test, calibration plots, calibration intercept and slope) and discrimination (area under receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC]) were assessed in the overall cohort and procedural subgroups. The mean age of the population was 74.4 years (SD 7.7); 193 (17.2%) patients were women and the majority of patients (759, 67.5%) underwent endovascular aneurysm repair. All three models demonstrated good calibration in the overall cohort and procedural subgroups. Overall discrimination was excellent for the BAR score (AUC 0.83, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.76-0.89), and acceptable for the Medicare and VGNW models, with AUCs of 0.78 (95% CI 0.70-0.86) and 0.75 (95% CI 0.65-0.84) respectively. Only the BAR score demonstrated good discrimination in procedural subgroups. All three models demonstrated good calibration and discrimination for the prediction of in-hospital mortality following elective AAA repair and are potentially useful. The BAR score has a number of advantages, which include being developed on the most contemporaneous data, excellent overall discrimination, and good performance in procedural subgroups. Regular model validations and recalibration will be essential. Copyright

  4. Genetic risk scores link body fat distribution with specific cardiometabolic profiles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Svendstrup, Mathilde; Sandholt, Camilla H; Andersson Galijatovic, Ehm Astrid


    , including fasting serum triglyceride (β = 0.98% mmol/L, P = 3.33 × 10(-) (8) ) and Matsuda index (β = -0.74%, P = 1.29 × 10(-) (4) ). No similar associations for Clusters 2 and 3 were found. The three clusters showed different patterns of association with waist circumference, hip circumference, and height......OBJECTIVE: Forty-nine known single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associating with body mass index (BMI)-adjusted waist-hip-ratio (WHR) (WHRadjBMI) were recently suggested to cluster into three groups with different associations to cardiometabolic traits. Genetic risk scores of the clusters...... risk scores and anthropometry and blood samples at fasting and during an oral glucose tolerance test were tested. Analyses were adjusted for age, sex, and BMI. RESULTS: Cluster 1 associated with an increased risk of diabetes (HR = 1.05, P = 2.74 × 10(-) (4) ) and with a poor metabolic profile...

  5. Risk of poor neonatal outcome at term after medically assisted reproduction: a propensity score-matched study. (United States)

    Ensing, Sabine; Abu-Hanna, Ameen; Roseboom, Tessa J; Repping, Sjoerd; van der Veen, Fulco; Mol, Ben Willem J; Ravelli, Anita C J


    To study risk of birth asphyxia and related morbidity among term singletons born after medically assisted reproduction (MAR). Population cohort study. Not applicable. A total of 1,953,932 term singleton pregnancies selected from a national registry for 1999-2011. None. Primary outcome Apgar score score score matching analysis was performed with matching on multiple maternal baseline covariates (maternal age, ethnicity, socioeconomic status, parity, year of birth, and preexistent diseases). Each MAR pregnancy was matched to three SC controls. Relative to SC, the MAR singletons had an increased risk of adverse neonatal outcomes including Apgar score score matching, the risk of an Apgar score Reproductive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Pre-operative risk scores for the prediction of outcome in elderly people who require emergency surgery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bates Tom


    Full Text Available Abstract Background The decision on whether to operate on a sick elderly person with an intra-abdominal emergency is one of the most difficult in general surgery. A predictive risk-score would be of great value in this situation. Methods A Medline search was performed to identify those predictive risk-scores relevant to sick elderly patients in whom emergency surgery might be life-saving. Results Many of the risk scores for surgical patients include the operative findings or require tests which are not available in the acute situation. Most of the relevant studies include younger patients and elective surgery. The Glasgow Aneurysm Score and Hardman Index are specific to ruptured aortic aneurysm while the Boey Score and the Hacetteppe Score are specific to perforated peptic ulcer. The Reiss Index and Fitness Score can be used pre-operatively if the elements of the score can be completed in time. The ASA score, which includes a significant element of subjective clinical judgement, can be augmented with factors such as age and urgency of surgery but no test has a negative predictive value sufficient to recommend against surgical intervention without clinical input. Conclusion Risk scores may be helpful in sick elderly patients needing emergency abdominal surgery but an experienced clinical opinion is still essential.

  7. Cereal Intake Increases and Dairy Products Decrease Risk of Cognitive Decline among Elderly Female Japanese. (United States)

    Otsuka, R; Kato, Y; Nishita, Y; Tange, C; Nakamoto, M; Tomida, M; Imai, T; Ando, F; Shimokata, H


    If cognitive decline can be prevented through changes in daily diet with no medical intervention, it will be highly significant for dementia prevention. This longitudinal study examined the associations of different food intakes on cognitive decline among Japanese subjects. Prospective cohort study. The National Institute for Longevity Sciences - Longitudinal Study of Aging, a community-based study. Participants included 298 males and 272 females aged 60 to 81 years at baseline who participated in the follow-up study (third to seventh wave) at least one time. Cognitive function was assessed with the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) in all study waves. Nutritional intake was assessed using a 3-day dietary record in the second wave. Cumulative data among participants with an MMSE >27 in the second wave were analyzed using a generalized estimating equation. Multivariate adjusted odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for an MMSE score ≤27 in each study wave according to a 1 standard deviation (SD) increase of each food intake at baseline were estimated, after adjusting for age, follow-up time, MMSE score at baseline, education, body mass index, annual household income, current smoking status, energy intake, and history of diseases. In men, after adjusting for age, and follow-up period, MMSE score at baseline, the adjusted OR for a decline in MMSE score was 1.20 (95% CI, 1.02-1.42; p=0.032) with a 1-SD increase in cereal intake. After adjusting for education and other confounding variables, the OR for a decrease in MMSE score did not reach statistical significance for this variable. In women, multivariate adjusted OR for MMSE decline was 1.43 (95% CI, 1.15-1.77; p=0.001) with a 1-SD increase in cereal intake and 0.80 (95% CI, 0.65-0.98; p=0.034) with a 1-SD increase in milk and dairy product intake. This study indicates that a 1-SD (108 g/day) decrease in cereal intake and a 1-SD (128 g/day) increase in milk and dairy product intake may have an

  8. A score to predict short-term risk of COPD exacerbations (SCOPEX

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Make BJ


    Full Text Available Barry J Make,1 Göran Eriksson,2 Peter M Calverley,3 Christine R Jenkins,4 Dirkje S Postma,5 Stefan Peterson,6 Ollie Östlund,7 Antonio Anzueto8 1Division of Pulmonary Sciences and Critical Care Medicine, National Jewish Health, University of Colorado Denver School of Medicine, Denver, CO, USA; 2Department of Respiratory Medicine and Allergology, University Hospital, Lund, Sweden; 3Pulmonary and Rehabilitation Research Group, University Hospital Aintree, Liverpool, UK; 4George Institute for Global Health, The University of Sydney and Concord Clinical School, Woolcock Institute of Medical Research, Sydney, NSW, Australia; 5Department of Pulmonology, University of Groningen and GRIAC Research Institute, University Medical Center Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands; 6StatMind AB, Lund, Sweden; 7Department of Medical Sciences and Uppsala Clinical Research Center, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden; 8Department of Pulmonary/Critical Care, University of Texas Health Sciences Center and South Texas Veterans Healthcare System, San Antonio, TX, USA Background: There is no clinically useful score to predict chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD exacerbations. We aimed to derive this by analyzing data from three existing COPD clinical trials of budesonide/formoterol, formoterol, or placebo in patients with moderate-to-very-severe COPD and a history of exacerbations in the previous year. Methods: Predictive variables were selected using Cox regression for time to first severe COPD exacerbation. We determined absolute risk estimates for an exacerbation by identifying variables in a binomial model, adjusting for observation time, study, and treatment. The model was further reduced to clinically useful variables and the final regression coefficients scaled to obtain risk scores of 0–100 to predict an exacerbation within 6 months. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC curves and the corresponding C-index were used to investigate the discriminatory

  9. Framingham risk score for estimation of 10-years of cardiovascular diseases risk in patients with metabolic syndrome. (United States)

    Jahangiry, Leila; Farhangi, Mahdieh Abbasalizad; Rezaei, Fatemeh


    There are a few studies evaluating the predictive value of Framingham risk score (FRS) for cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk assessment in patients with metabolic syndrome in Iran. Because of the emerging high prevalence of CVD among Iranian population, it is important to predict its risk among populations with potential predictive tools. Therefore, the aim of the current study is to evaluate the FRS and its determinants in patients with metabolic syndrome. In the current cross-sectional study, 160 patients with metabolic syndrome diagnosed according to the National Cholesterol Education Adult Treatment Panel (ATP) III criteria were enrolled. The FRS was calculated using a computer program by a previously suggested algorithm. Totally, 77.5, 16.3, and 6.3% of patients with metabolic syndrome were at low, intermediate, and high risk of CVD according to FRS categorization. The highest prevalence of all of metabolic syndrome components were in low CVD risk according to the FRS grouping (P metabolic syndrome and different FRS categorization among patients with metabolic syndrome were identified. High SBP and FSG were associated with meaningfully increased risk of CVD compared with other parameters. The study is not a trial; the registration number is not applicable.

  10. Evaluation of risk scores for risk stratification of acute coronary syndromes in the Myocardial Infarction National Audit Project (MINAP) database. (United States)

    Gale, C P; Manda, S O M; Weston, C F; Birkhead, J S; Batin, P D; Hall, A S


    To compare the discriminative performance of the PURSUIT, GUSTO-1, GRACE, SRI and EMMACE risk models, assess their performance among risk supergroups and evaluate the EMMACE risk model over the wider spectrum of acute coronary syndrome (ACS). Observational study of a national registry. All acute hospitals in England and Wales. 100 686 cases of ACS between 2003 and 2005. Model performance (C-index) in predicting the likelihood of death over the time period for which they were designed. The C-index, or area under the receiver-operating curve, range 0-1, is a measure of the discriminative performance of a model. The C-indexes were: PURSUIT C-index 0.79 (95% confidence interval 0.78 to 0.80); GUSTO-1 0.80 (0.79 to 0.81); GRACE in-hospital 0.80 (0.80 to 0.81); GRACE 6-month 0.80 (0.79 to 0.80); SRI 0.79 (0.78 to 0.80); and EMMACE 0.78 (0.77 to 0.78). EMMACE maintained its ability to discriminate 30-day mortality throughout different ACS diagnoses. Recalibration of the model offered no notable improvement in performance over the original risk equation. For all models the discriminative performance was reduced in patients with diabetes, chronic renal failure or angina. The five ACS risk models maintained their discriminative performance in a large unselected English and Welsh ACS population, but performed less well in higher-risk supergroups. Simpler risk models had comparable performance to more complex risk models. The EMMACE risk score performed well across the wider spectrum of ACS diagnoses.

  11. How robotic-assisted surgery can decrease the risk of mucosal tear during Heller myotomy procedure? (United States)

    Ballouhey, Quentin; Dib, Nabil; Binet, Aurélien; Carcauzon-Couvrat, Véronique; Clermidi, Pauline; Longis, Bernard; Lardy, Hubert; Languepin, Jane; Cros, Jérôme; Fourcade, Laurent


    We report the first description of robotic-assisted Heller myotomy in children. The purpose of this study was to improve the safety of Heller myotomy by demonstrating, in two adolescent patients, the contribution of the robot to the different steps of this procedure. Due to the robot's freedom of movement and three-dimensional vision, there was an improvement in the accuracy, a gain in the safety regarding different key-points, decreasing the risk of mucosal perforation associated with this procedure.

  12. Comparison of RISK-PCI, GRACE, TIMI risk scores for prediction of major adverse cardiac events in patients with acute coronary syndrome. (United States)

    Jakimov, Tamara; Mrdović, Igor; Filipović, Branka; Zdravković, Marija; Djoković, Aleksandra; Hinić, Saša; Milić, Nataša; Filipović, Branislav


    To compare the prognostic performance of three major risk scoring systems including global registry for acute coronary events (GRACE), thrombolysis in myocardial infarction (TIMI), and prediction of 30-day major adverse cardiovascular events after primary percutaneous coronary intervention (RISK-PCI). This single-center retrospective study involved 200 patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) who underwent invasive diagnostic approach, ie, coronary angiography and myocardial revascularization if appropriate, in the period from January 2014 to July 2014. The GRACE, TIMI, and RISK-PCI risk scores were compared for their predictive ability. The primary endpoint was a composite 30-day major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE), which included death, urgent target-vessel revascularization (TVR), stroke, and non-fatal recurrent myocardial infarction (REMI). The c-statistics of the tested scores for 30-day MACE or area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) with confidence intervals (CI) were as follows: RISK-PCI (AUC=0.94; 95% CI 1.790-4.353), the GRACE score on admission (AUC=0.73; 95% CI 1.013-1.045), the GRACE score on discharge (AUC=0.65; 95% CI 0.999-1.033). The RISK-PCI score was the only score that could predict TVR (AUC=0.91; 95% CI 1.392-2.882). The RISK-PCI scoring system showed an excellent discriminative potential for 30-day death (AUC=0.96; 95% CI 1.339-3.548) in comparison with the GRACE scores on admission (AUC=0.88; 95% CI 1.018-1.072) and on discharge (AUC=0.78; 95% CI 1.000-1.058). In comparison with the GRACE and TIMI scores, RISK-PCI score showed a non-inferior ability to predict 30-day MACE and death in ACS patients. Moreover, RISK-PCI was the only scoring system that could predict recurrent ischemia requiring TVR.

  13. Host density increases parasite recruitment but decreases host risk in a snail-trematode system. (United States)

    Buck, J C; Hechinger, R F; Wood, A C; Stewart, T E; Kuris, A M; Lafferty, K D


    Most species aggregate in local patches. High host density in patches increases contact rate between hosts and parasites, increasing parasite transmission success. At the same time, for environmentally transmitted parasites, high host density can decrease infection risk to individual hosts, because infective stages are divided among all hosts in a patch, leading to safety in numbers. We tested these predictions using the California horn snail, Cerithideopsis californica (=Cerithidea californica), which is the first intermediate host for at least 19 digenean trematode species in California estuaries. Snails become infected by ingesting trematode eggs or through penetration by free-swimming miracidia that hatch from trematode eggs deposited with final-host (bird or mammal) feces. This complex life cycle decouples infective-stage production from transmission, raising the possibility of an inverse relationship between host density and infection risk at local scales. In a field survey, higher snail density was associated with increased trematode (infected snail) density, but decreased trematode prevalence, consistent with either safety in numbers, parasitic castration, or both. To determine the extent to which safety in numbers drove the negative snail-density-trematode-prevalence association, we manipulated uninfected snail density in 83 cages at eight sites within Carpinteria Salt Marsh (California, USA). At each site, we quantified snail density and used data on final-host (bird and raccoon) distributions to control for between-site variation in infective-stage supply. After three months, overall trematode infections per cage increased with snail biomass density. For egg-transmitted trematodes, per-snail infection risk decreased with snail biomass density in the cage and surrounding area, whereas per-snail infection risk did not decrease for miracidium-transmitted trematodes. Furthermore, both trematode recruitment and infection risk increased with infective

  14. Genetic risk scores for body fat distribution attenuate weight loss in women during dietary intervention

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Svendstrup, M; Allin, K H; Sørensen, T I A


    to lose weight. We aimed to study the effect of weighted genetic risk scores (GRSs) on weight loss based on single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with waist-hip-ratio adjusted for body mass index (WHRadjBMI). METHOD: We included 707 participants (533 women and 174 men) from the NUGENOB multi......-center 10 week diet intervention study with weekly weight measurements. We created 3 GRSs, one including all reported WHRadjBMI SNPs (GRStotal), one including only SNPs with genome wide significance in women or with significantly greater effect in women (GRSwomen), and one excluding SNPs in the GRSwomen...... (GRSmen). The data was analyzed in a mixed linear model framework. RESULTS: The GRStotal and GRSwomen attenuated weight loss in women. The effect was strongest for the GRSwomen with an effect of 2.21 g/risk allele/day [95% CI (0.90;3.52), P=0.0009]. Adjustment for WHR, basal metabolic rate or diet...

  15. Interactions of Lipid Genetic Risk Scores with Estimates of Metabolic Health in a Danish Population

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Justesen, Johanne M; Allin, Kristine H; Sandholt, Camilla H


    Background—There are several well-established lifestyle factors influencing dyslipidemia and currently; 157 genetic susceptibility loci have been reported to be associated with serum lipid levels at genome-wide statistical significance. However, the interplay between lifestyle risk factors...... and these susceptibility loci has not been fully elucidated. We tested whether genetic risk scores (GRS) of lipid-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms associate with fasting serum lipid traits and whether the effects are modulated by lifestyle factors or estimates of metabolic health. Methods and Results—The single......-cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol, or triglyceride, 4 weighted GRS were constructed. In a cross-sectional design, we investigated whether the effect of these weighted GRSs on lipid levels were modulated by diet, alcohol consumption, physical activity, and smoking or the individual metabolic health...

  16. Decreased Lumbar Lordosis and Deficient Acetabular Coverage Are Risk Factors for Subchondral Insufficiency Fracture. (United States)

    Jo, Woo Lam; Lee, Woo Suk; Chae, Dong Sik; Yang, Ick Hwan; Lee, Kyoung Min; Koo, Kyung Hoi


    Subchondral insufficiency fracture (SIF) of the femoral head occurs in the elderly and recipients of organ transplantation. Osteoporosis and deficient lateral coverage of the acetabulum are known risk factors for SIF. There has been no study about relation between spinopelvic alignment and anterior acetabular coverage with SIF. We therefore asked whether a decrease of lumbar lordosis and a deficiency in the anterior acetabular coverage are risk factors. We investigated 37 patients with SIF. There were 33 women and 4 men, and their mean age was 71.5 years (59-85 years). These 37 patients were matched with 37 controls for gender, age, height, weight, body mass index and bone mineral density. We compared the lumbar lordosis, pelvic incidence, pelvic tilt, sacral slope, acetabular index, acetabular roof angle, acetabular head index, anterior center-edge angle and lateral center-edge angle. Lumbar lordosis, pelvic tilt, sacral slope, lateral center edge angle, anterior center edge angle, acetabular index and acetabular head index were significantly different between SIF group and control group. Lumbar lordosis (OR = 1.11), lateral center edge angle (OR = 1.30) and anterior center edge angle (OR = 1.27) had significant associations in multivariate analysis. Decreased lumbar lordosis and deficient anterior coverage of the acetabulum are risk factors for SIF as well as decreased lateral coverage of the acetabulum.

  17. Endogenous and exogenous testosterone and prostate cancer: decreased-, increased- or null-risk? (United States)

    Advani, Shailesh; Tsilidis, Konstantinos K.; Wang, Run; Canfield, Steven


    For more than 70 years, the contention that high levels of testosterone or that the use of testosterone therapy (TTh) increases the development and progression of prostate cancer (PCa) has been widely accepted and practiced. Yet, the increasing and emerging evidence on testosterone research seems to challenge that contention. To review literature on the associations of endogenous and exogenous testosterone with decreased-, increased-, or null-risk of PCa, and to further evaluate only those studies that reported magnitude of associations from multivariable modeling as it minimizes confounding effects. We conducted a literature search to identify studies that investigated the association of endogenous total testosterone [continuous (per 1 unit increment and 5 nmol/L increment) and categorical (high vs. low)] and use of TTh with PCa events [1990–2016]. Emphasis was given to studies/analyses that reported magnitude of associations [odds ratio (OR), relative risk (RR) and hazard ratios (HRs)] from multivariable analyses to determine risk of PCa and their statistical significance. Most identified studies/analyses included observational and randomized placebo-controlled trials. This review was organized in three parts: (I) association of endogenous total testosterone (per 1 unit increment and 5 nmol/L increment) with PCa; (II) relationship of endogenous total testosterone (categorical high vs. low) with PCa; and (III) association of use of TTh with PCa in meta-analyses of randomized placebo-controlled trials. The first part included 31 observational studies [20 prospective (per 5 nmol/L increment) and 11 prospective and retrospective cohort studies (per 1 unit increment)]. None of the 20 prospective studies found a significant association between total testosterone (5 nmol/L increment) and increased- or decreased-risk of PCa. Two out of the 11 studies/analyses showed a significant decreased-risk of PCa for total testosterone per 1 unit increment, but also two other

  18. Endogenous and exogenous testosterone and prostate cancer: decreased-, increased- or null-risk? (United States)

    Lopez, David S; Advani, Shailesh; Tsilidis, Konstantinos K; Wang, Run; Canfield, Steven


    For more than 70 years, the contention that high levels of testosterone or that the use of testosterone therapy (TTh) increases the development and progression of prostate cancer (PCa) has been widely accepted and practiced. Yet, the increasing and emerging evidence on testosterone research seems to challenge that contention. To review literature on the associations of endogenous and exogenous testosterone with decreased-, increased-, or null-risk of PCa, and to further evaluate only those studies that reported magnitude of associations from multivariable modeling as it minimizes confounding effects. We conducted a literature search to identify studies that investigated the association of endogenous total testosterone [continuous (per 1 unit increment and 5 nmol/L increment) and categorical (high vs. low)] and use of TTh with PCa events [1990-2016]. Emphasis was given to studies/analyses that reported magnitude of associations [odds ratio (OR), relative risk (RR) and hazard ratios (HRs)] from multivariable analyses to determine risk of PCa and their statistical significance. Most identified studies/analyses included observational and randomized placebo-controlled trials. This review was organized in three parts: (I) association of endogenous total testosterone (per 1 unit increment and 5 nmol/L increment) with PCa; (II) relationship of endogenous total testosterone (categorical high vs. low) with PCa; and (III) association of use of TTh with PCa in meta-analyses of randomized placebo-controlled trials. The first part included 31 observational studies [20 prospective (per 5 nmol/L increment) and 11 prospective and retrospective cohort studies (per 1 unit increment)]. None of the 20 prospective studies found a significant association between total testosterone (5 nmol/L increment) and increased- or decreased-risk of PCa. Two out of the 11 studies/analyses showed a significant decreased-risk of PCa for total testosterone per 1 unit increment, but also two other

  19. Scope Complexity Options Risks Excursions (SCORE) Version 3.0 Mathematical Description.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gearhart, Jared Lee [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Samberson, Jonell Nicole [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Shettigar, Subhasini [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Jungels, John [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Welch, Kimberly M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Jones, Dean A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)


    The purpose of the Scope, Complexity, Options, Risks, Excursions (SCORE) model is to estimate the relative complexity of design variants of future warhead options. The results of this model allow those considering these options to understand the complexity tradeoffs between proposed warhead options. The core idea of SCORE is to divide a warhead option into a well- defined set of scope elements and then estimate the complexity of each scope element against a well understood reference system. The uncertainty associated with estimates can also be captured. A weighted summation of the relative complexity of each scope element is used to determine the total complexity of the proposed warhead option or portions of the warhead option (i.e., a National Work Breakdown Structure code). The SCORE analysis process is a growing multi-organizational Nuclear Security Enterprise (NSE) effort, under the management of the NA- 12 led Enterprise Modeling and Analysis Consortium (EMAC), that has provided the data elicitation, integration and computation needed to support the out-year Life Extension Program (LEP) cost estimates included in the Stockpile Stewardship Management Plan (SSMP).

  20. Clinical use of Nintendo Wii bowling simulation to decrease fall risk in an elderly resident of a nursing home: a case report. (United States)

    Clark, Robert; Kraemer, Theresa


    Of the estimated 1.7 million residents of nursing homes in the United States, approximately half fall annually; and 11% of these sustain injury. This is twice the rate for persons dwelling in the community. By addressing fall risk, physical therapists have an opportunity to reduce falls which are the leading cause of injury deaths, as well as the most common cause of nonfatal injuries for older adults in the United States. This case report examines the effect of a novel interactive video game intervention to address balance dysfunction in an elderly resident of a nursing home who was at risk for falls. The patient is an 89-year-old resident diagnosed with an unspecified balance disorder and a history of multiple falls. Self reports of gait abnormalities, scores on several clinical measures, and her fall history classified her as having substantial risk for future falls. A nontraditional approach to balance training, employing the Nintendo Wii bowling simulation, was used as intervention for this patient's balance disorder. After 6 one-hour treatment sessions, the patient's Berg Balance Score improved from 48 to 53. On the Dynamic Gait Index, the patient improved her score from 19 to 21. The patient's Timed Up and Go Test improved from 14.9 to 10.5 seconds, all suggesting a reduced risk of falling. The patient's ABC Score improved from 88 to 90%. Physical therapy intervention, using the Nintendo Wii bowling simulation, may have decreased fall risk for this individual.

  1. Investigating the role of electronic insurance on decreasing exporting charges risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farideh MosallaiZade


    Full Text Available Nowadays, the electronic insurance (EI is one the electronic services, which is used in most countries, and that is one effective factor in developing the exporting products and services. On the other hand, the incurrence industry and very especially EI represent their importance both domestically and internationally. One of the ways for transferring the exporting risks is to transfer the risks to the insurer. This paper examines the characteristics of EI and the effects of decreasing the exporting risk charges. The proposed study designs a questionnaire in the form of Likert scale, the validity of the questionnaire is validated by some the experts' viewpoints and the Cronbach' alpha is measure as 0.794. The results of applying Freedman test have disclosed that facilitating export activities was the most important factor followed by access to target export market information.

  2. Impact of a Genetic Risk Score for Coronary Artery Disease on Reducing Cardiovascular Risk: A Pilot Randomized Controlled Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joshua W. Knowles


    Full Text Available PurposeWe tested whether providing a genetic risk score (GRS for coronary artery disease (CAD would serve as a motivator to improve adherence to risk-reducing strategies.MethodsWe randomized 94 participants with at least moderate risk of CAD to receive standard-of-care with (N = 49 or without (N = 45 their GRS at a subsequent 3-month follow-up visit. Our primary outcome was change in low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C between the 3- and 6-month follow-up visits (ΔLDL-C. Secondary outcomes included other CAD risk factors, weight loss, diet, physical activity, risk perceptions, and psychological outcomes. In pre-specified analyses, we examined whether there was a greater motivational effect in participants with a higher GRS.ResultsSixty-five participants completed the protocol including 30 participants in the GRS arm. We found no change in the primary outcome between participants receiving their GRS and standard-of-care participants (ΔLDL-C: −13 vs. −9 mg/dl. Among participants with a higher GRS, we observed modest effects on weight loss and physical activity. All other secondary outcomes were not significantly different, including anxiety and worry.ConclusionAdding GRS to standard-of-care did not change lipids, adherence, or psychological outcomes. Potential modest benefits in weight loss and physical activity for participants with high GRS need to be validated in larger trials.

  3. Longitudinal AddiQoL scores may identify higher risk for adrenal crises in Addison's disease. (United States)

    Meyer, Gesine; Koch, Maike; Herrmann, Eva; Bojunga, Jörg; Badenhoop, Klaus


    Several studies have shown a reduced quality of life (QoL) in patients with Addison's disease (AD), but investigations of QoL over a long-term course are lacking. Adrenal crises (AC) are life-threatening complications in AD. The purpose of this prospective study was to test whether the repeated use of QoL-questionnaires can detect prodromal periods of an AC. 110 patients with AD were asked to complete the disease specific-QoL questionnaire AddiQoL and a short questionnaire about adverse events once monthly over a period of ten months. AC was defined if at least two of the following symptoms were reported: (a) hypotension, (b) nausea or vomiting, (c) severe fatigue, (d) documented hyponatremia, hyperkalemia, or hypoglycemia, and subsequent parenteral glucocorticoid administration was carried out. Prevalence of AC was 10.9/100 patient years. AddiQoL scores in patients with AC showed a trend (p = 0,08) to a wider fluctuation over time. Subjective precrises not meeting the criteria for AC were reported by 31 patients who had significantly lower AddiQoL scores (p = 0,018). These are the first data showing the course of QoL during a period of ten months in patients with AD. Incidence of AC exceeds previous data. Our data show, that subjective precrises in AD associate with lower QoL. AC, as well as precrises affect intraindividual AddiQol-scores over time with a trend to a stronger fluctuation. Longitudinal AddiQol scores and self-reporting of precrises via patient diaries are additional clinical tools to identify higher risk for critical events.

  4. Prediction of Breast and Prostate Cancer Risks in Male BRCA1 and BRCA2 Mutation Carriers Using Polygenic Risk Scores. (United States)

    Lecarpentier, Julie; Silvestri, Valentina; Kuchenbaecker, Karoline B; Barrowdale, Daniel; Dennis, Joe; McGuffog, Lesley; Soucy, Penny; Leslie, Goska; Rizzolo, Piera; Navazio, Anna Sara; Valentini, Virginia; Zelli, Veronica; Lee, Andrew; Amin Al Olama, Ali; Tyrer, Jonathan P; Southey, Melissa; John, Esther M; Conner, Thomas A; Goldgar, David E; Buys, Saundra S; Janavicius, Ramunas; Steele, Linda; Ding, Yuan Chun; Neuhausen, Susan L; Hansen, Thomas V O; Osorio, Ana; Weitzel, Jeffrey N; Toss, Angela; Medici, Veronica; Cortesi, Laura; Zanna, Ines; Palli, Domenico; Radice, Paolo; Manoukian, Siranoush; Peissel, Bernard; Azzollini, Jacopo; Viel, Alessandra; Cini, Giulia; Damante, Giuseppe; Tommasi, Stefania; Peterlongo, Paolo; Fostira, Florentia; Hamann, Ute; Evans, D Gareth; Henderson, Alex; Brewer, Carole; Eccles, Diana; Cook, Jackie; Ong, Kai-Ren; Walker, Lisa; Side, Lucy E; Porteous, Mary E; Davidson, Rosemarie; Hodgson, Shirley; Frost, Debra; Adlard, Julian; Izatt, Louise; Eeles, Ros; Ellis, Steve; Tischkowitz, Marc; Godwin, Andrew K; Meindl, Alfons; Gehrig, Andrea; Dworniczak, Bernd; Sutter, Christian; Engel, Christoph; Niederacher, Dieter; Steinemann, Doris; Hahnen, Eric; Hauke, Jan; Rhiem, Kerstin; Kast, Karin; Arnold, Norbert; Ditsch, Nina; Wang-Gohrke, Shan; Wappenschmidt, Barbara; Wand, Dorothea; Lasset, Christine; Stoppa-Lyonnet, Dominique; Belotti, Muriel; Damiola, Francesca; Barjhoux, Laure; Mazoyer, Sylvie; Van Heetvelde, Mattias; Poppe, Bruce; De Leeneer, Kim; Claes, Kathleen B M; de la Hoya, Miguel; Garcia-Barberan, Vanesa; Caldes, Trinidad; Perez Segura, Pedro; Kiiski, Johanna I; Aittomäki, Kristiina; Khan, Sofia; Nevanlinna, Heli; van Asperen, Christi J; Vaszko, Tibor; Kasler, Miklos; Olah, Edith; Balmaña, Judith; Gutiérrez-Enríquez, Sara; Diez, Orland; Teulé, Alex; Izquierdo, Angel; Darder, Esther; Brunet, Joan; Del Valle, Jesús; Feliubadalo, Lidia; Pujana, Miquel Angel; Lazaro, Conxi; Arason, Adalgeir; Agnarsson, Bjarni A; Johannsson, Oskar Th; Barkardottir, Rosa B; Alducci, Elisa; Tognazzo, Silvia; Montagna, Marco; Teixeira, Manuel R; Pinto, Pedro; Spurdle, Amanda B; Holland, Helene; Lee, Jong Won; Lee, Min Hyuk; Lee, Jihyoun; Kim, Sung-Won; Kang, Eunyoung; Kim, Zisun; Sharma, Priyanka; Rebbeck, Timothy R; Vijai, Joseph; Robson, Mark; Lincoln, Anne; Musinsky, Jacob; Gaddam, Pragna; Tan, Yen Y; Berger, Andreas; Singer, Christian F; Loud, Jennifer T; Greene, Mark H; Mulligan, Anna Marie; Glendon, Gord; Andrulis, Irene L; Toland, Amanda Ewart; Senter, Leigha; Bojesen, Anders; Nielsen, Henriette Roed; Skytte, Anne-Bine; Sunde, Lone; Jensen, Uffe Birk; Pedersen, Inge Sokilde; Krogh, Lotte; Kruse, Torben A; Caligo, Maria A; Yoon, Sook-Yee; Teo, Soo-Hwang; von Wachenfeldt, Anna; Huo, Dezheng; Nielsen, Sarah M; Olopade, Olufunmilayo I; Nathanson, Katherine L; Domchek, Susan M; Lorenchick, Christa; Jankowitz, Rachel C; Campbell, Ian; James, Paul; Mitchell, Gillian; Orr, Nick; Park, Sue Kyung; Thomassen, Mads; Offit, Kenneth; Couch, Fergus J; Simard, Jacques; Easton, Douglas F; Chenevix-Trench, Georgia; Schmutzler, Rita K; Antoniou, Antonis C; Ottini, Laura


    Purpose BRCA1/2 mutations increase the risk of breast and prostate cancer in men. Common genetic variants modify cancer risks for female carriers of BRCA1/2 mutations. We investigated-for the first time to our knowledge-associations of common genetic variants with breast and prostate cancer risks for male carriers of BRCA1/ 2 mutations and implications for cancer risk prediction. Materials and Methods We genotyped 1,802 male carriers of BRCA1/2 mutations from the Consortium of Investigators of Modifiers of BRCA1/2 by using the custom Illumina OncoArray. We investigated the combined effects of established breast and prostate cancer susceptibility variants on cancer risks for male carriers of BRCA1/2 mutations by constructing weighted polygenic risk scores (PRSs) using published effect estimates as weights. Results In male carriers of BRCA1/2 mutations, PRS that was based on 88 female breast cancer susceptibility variants was associated with breast cancer risk (odds ratio per standard deviation of PRS, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.19 to 1.56; P = 8.6 × 10 -6 ). Similarly, PRS that was based on 103 prostate cancer susceptibility variants was associated with prostate cancer risk (odds ratio per SD of PRS, 1.56; 95% CI, 1.35 to 1.81; P = 3.2 × 10 -9 ). Large differences in absolute cancer risks were observed at the extremes of the PRS distribution. For example, prostate cancer risk by age 80 years at the 5th and 95th percentiles of the PRS varies from 7% to 26% for carriers of BRCA1 mutations and from 19% to 61% for carriers of BRCA2 mutations, respectively. Conclusion PRSs may provide informative cancer risk stratification for male carriers of BRCA1/2 mutations that might enable these men and their physicians to make informed decisions on the type and timing of breast and prostate cancer risk management.

  5. A risk-scoring scheme for suicide attempts among patients with bipolar disorder in a Thai patient cohort

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patumanond J


    Full Text Available Chidchanok Ruengorn1,2, Kittipong Sanichwankul3, Wirat Niwatananun2, Suwat Mahatnirunkul3, Wanida Pumpaisalchai3, Jayanton Patumanond11Clinical Epidemiology Program, Faculty of Medicine, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand; 2Department of Pharmaceutical Care, Faculty of Pharmacy, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand; 3Suanprung Psychiatric Hospital, Chiang Mai, ThailandBackground: In Thailand, risk factors associated with suicide attempts in bipolar disorder (BD are rarely investigated, nor has a specific risk-scoring scheme to assist in the identification of BD patients at risk for attempting suicide been proposed.Objective: To develop a simple risk-scoring scheme to identify patients with BD who may be at risk for attempting suicide.Methods: Medical files of 489 patients diagnosed with BD at Suanprung Psychiatric Hospital between October 2006 and May 2009 were reviewed. Cases included BD patients hospitalized due to attempted suicide (n = 58, and seven controls were selected (per suicide case among BD in- and out-patients who did not attempt suicide, with patients being visited the same day or within 1 week of case study (n = 431. Broad sociodemographic and clinical factors were gathered and analyzed using multivariate logistic regression, to obtain a set of risk factors. Scores for each indicator were weighted, assigned, and summed to create a total risk score, which was divided into low, moderate, and high-risk suicide attempt groups.Results: Six statistically significant indicators associated with suicide attempts were included in the risk-scoring scheme: depression, psychotic symptom(s, number of previous suicide attempts, stressful life event(s, medication adherence, and BD treatment years. A total risk score (possible range -1.5 to 11.5 explained an 88.6% probability of suicide attempts based on the receiver operating characteristic (ROC analysis. Likelihood ratios of suicide attempts with low risk scores (below 2

  6. Alimentary habits, physical activity, and Framingham global risk score in metabolic syndrome. (United States)

    Soares, Thays Soliman; Piovesan, Carla Haas; Gustavo, Andréia da Silva; Macagnan, Fabrício Edler; Bodanese, Luiz Carlos; Feoli, Ana Maria Pandolfo


    Metabolic syndrome is a complex disorder represented by a set of cardiovascular risk factors. A healthy lifestyle is strongly related to improve Quality of Life and interfere positively in the control of risk factors presented in this condition. To evaluate the effect of a program of lifestyle modification on the Framingham General Cardiovascular Risk Profile in subjects diagnosed with metabolic syndrome. A sub-analysis study of a randomized clinical trial controlled blind that lasted three months. Participants were randomized into four groups: dietary intervention + placebo (DIP), dietary intervention + supplementation of omega 3 (fish oil 3 g/day) (DIS3), dietary intervention + placebo + physical activity (DIPE) and dietary intervention + physical activity + supplementation of omega 3 (DIS3PE). The general cardiovascular risk profile of each individual was calculated before and after the intervention. The study included 70 subjects. Evaluating the score between the pre and post intervention yielded a significant value (p study emphasizes the importance of lifestyle modification in the prevention and treatment of cardiovascular diseases.

  7. Individual and shared effects of social environment and polygenic risk scores on adolescent body mass index. (United States)

    Coleman, Jonathan R I; Krapohl, Eva; Eley, Thalia C; Breen, Gerome


    Juvenile obesity is associated with adverse health outcomes. Understanding genetic and environmental influences on body mass index (BMI) during adolescence could inform interventions. We investigated independent and interactive effects of parenting, socioeconomic status (SES) and polygenic risk on BMI pre-adolescence, and on the rate of change in BMI across adolescence. Genome-wide genotype data, BMI and child perceptions of parental warmth and punitive discipline were available at 11 years old, and parental SES was available from birth on 3,414 unrelated participants. Linear models were used to test the effects of social environment and polygenic risk on pre-adolescent BMI. Change in BMI across adolescence was assessed in a subset (N = 1943). Sex-specific effects were assessed. Higher genetic risk was associated with increased BMI pre-adolescence and across adolescence (p parenting was not significantly associated with either phenotype, but lower SES was associated with increased BMI pre-adolescence. No interactions passed correction for multiple testing. Polygenic risk scores from adult GWAS meta-analyses are associated with BMI in juveniles, suggesting a stable genetic component. Pre-adolescent BMI was associated with social environment, but parental style has, at most, a small effect.

  8. A Quantitative Climate-Match Score for Risk-Assessment Screening of Reptile and Amphibian Introductions (United States)

    van Wilgen, Nicola J.; Roura-Pascual, Núria; Richardson, David M.


    Assessing climatic suitability provides a good preliminary estimate of the invasive potential of a species to inform risk assessment. We examined two approaches for bioclimatic modeling for 67 reptile and amphibian species introduced to California and Florida. First, we modeled the worldwide distribution of the biomes found in the introduced range to highlight similar areas worldwide from which invaders might arise. Second, we modeled potentially suitable environments for species based on climatic factors in their native ranges, using three sources of distribution data. Performance of the three datasets and both approaches were compared for each species. Climate match was positively correlated with species establishment success (maximum predicted suitability in the introduced range was more strongly correlated with establishment success than mean suitability). Data assembled from the Global Amphibian Assessment through NatureServe provided the most accurate models for amphibians, while ecoregion data compiled by the World Wide Fund for Nature yielded models which described reptile climatic suitability better than available point-locality data. We present three methods of assigning a climate-match score for use in risk assessment using both the mean and maximum climatic suitabilities. Managers may choose to use different methods depending on the stringency of the assessment and the available data, facilitating higher resolution and accuracy for herpetofaunal risk assessment. Climate-matching has inherent limitations and other factors pertaining to ecological interactions and life-history traits must also be considered for thorough risk assessment.

  9. Development of a self-assessment score for metabolic syndrome risk in non-obese Korean adults. (United States)

    Je, Youjin; Kim, Youngyo; Park, Taeyoung


    There is a need for simple risk scores that identify individuals at high risk for metabolic syndrome (MetS). Therefore, this study was performed to develop and validate a self-assessment score for MetS risk in non-obese Korean adults. Data from the fourth Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES IV), 2007-2009 were used to develop a MetS risk score. We included a total of 5,508 non-obese participants aged 19-64 years who were free of a self-reported diagnosis of diabetes, hyperlipidemia, hypertension, stroke, angina, or cancer. Multivariable logistic regression model coefficients were used to assign each variable category a score. The validity of the score was assessed in an independent population survey performed in 2010 and 2011, KNHANES V (n=3,892). Age, BMI, physical activity, smoking, alcohol consumption, dairy consumption, dietary habit of eating less salty and food insecurity were selected as categorical variables. The MetS risk score value varied from 0 to 13, and a cut-point MetS risk score of >=7 was selected based on the highest Youden index. The cut-point provided a sensitivity of 81%, specificity of 61%, positive predictive value of 14%, and negative predictive value of 98%, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.78. Consistent results were obtained in the validation data sets. This simple risk score may be used to identify individuals at high risk for MetS without laboratory tests among non-obese Korean adults. Further studies are needed to verify the usefulness and feasibility of this score in various settings.

  10. Association of vagus nerve severance and decreased risk of subsequent type 2 diabetes in peptic ulcer patients (United States)

    Wu, Shih-Chi; Chen, William Tzu-Liang; Fang, Chu-Wen; Muo, Chih-Hsin; Sung, Fung-Chang; Hsu, Chung Y.


    Abstract Vagus nerve may play a role in serum glucose modulation. The complicated peptic ulcer patients (with perforation or/and bleeding) who received surgical procedures with or without vagotomy provided 2 patient populations for studying the impact of vagus nerve integrity. We assessed the risk of developing type 2 diabetes in peptic ulcer patients without and with complications by surgical treatment received in a retrospective population study using the National Health Insurance database in Taiwan. A cohort of 163,385 patients with peptic ulcer and without Helicobacter pylori infection in 2000 to 2003 was established. A randomly selected cohort of 163,385 persons without peptic ulcer matched by age, sex, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, Charlson comorbidity index score, and index year was utilized for comparison. The risks of developing diabetes in both cohorts and in the complicated peptic ulcer patients who received truncal vagotomy or simple suture/hemostasis (SSH) were assessed at the end of 2011. The overall diabetes incidence was higher in patients with peptic ulcer than those without peptic ulcer (15.87 vs 12.60 per 1000 person-years) by an adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) of 1.43 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.40–1.47) based on the multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression analysis (competing risk). Comparing ulcer patients with truncal vagotomy and SSH or those without surgical treatment, the aHR was the lowest in the vagotomy group (0.48, 95% CI = 0.41–0.56). Peptic ulcer patients have an elevated risk of developing type 2 diabetes. Moreover, there were associations of vagus nerve severance and decreased risk of subsequent type 2 diabetes in complicated peptic ulcer patients. PMID:27930533

  11. B-type Natriuretic Peptide and RISK-PCI Score in the Risk Assessment in Patients with STEMI Treated by Primary Percutaneous Coronary Intervention. (United States)

    Asanin, Milika; Mrdovic, Igor; Savic, Lidija; Matic, Dragan; Krljanac, Gordana; Vukcevic, Vladan; Orlic, Dejan; Stankovic, Goran; Marinkovic, Jelena; Stankovic, Sanja


    RISK-PCI score is a novel score for risk stratification of patients with ST elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) treated by primary percutaneous coronary intervention (pPCI). The aim of this study was to evaluate the role of B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) and the RISK-PCI score for early risk assessment in patients with STEMI treated by pPCI. In 120 patients with STEMI treated by pPCI, BNP was measured on admission before pPCI. The primary end point was 30-day mortality. The ROC curve analysis revealed that the most powerful predictive factors of 30-day mortality were the plasma level of BNP ≥ 206.6 pg/mL with the sensitivity of 75% and specificity of 87.5% and the RISK-PCI score ≥ 5.25 with the sensitivity of 75% and specificity of 85.7%. Thirty-day mortality was 6.7%. After multivariate adjustment, admission BNP (≥ 206.6 pg/mL) (OR 2.952, 95% CI 1.072 - 8.133, p = 0.036) and the RISK-PCI score (≥ 5.25) (OR 2.284, 95% CI 1.140-4.578, p = 0.020) were independent predictors of 30-day mortality. The area under the ROC curve using the RISK-PCI score and BNP to detect mortality was 0.828 (p = 0.002) and 0.903 (p PCI score increased the area under the ROC to 0.949 (p PCI score for 30-day mortality. BNP on admission and the RISK-PCI score were the independent predictors of 30-day mortality in patients with the STEMI treated by pPCI. BNP in combination with the RISK-PCI score showed the way to more accurate risk assessment in patients with STEMI treated by pPCI.

  12. Cardiovascular risk assessment in elderly adults using SCORE OP model in a Latin American population: The experience from Ecuador. (United States)

    Sisa, Ivan


    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality is predicted to increase in Latin America countries due to their rapidly aging population. However, there is very little information about CVD risk assessment as a primary preventive measure in this high-risk population. We predicted the national risk of developing CVD in Ecuadorian elderly population using the Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation in Older Persons (SCORE OP) High and Low models by risk categories/CVD risk region in 2009. Data on national cardiovascular risk factors were obtained from the Encuesta sobre Salud, Bienestar y Envejecimiento. We computed the predicted 5-year risk of CVD risk and compared the extent of agreement and reclassification in stratifying high-risk individuals between SCORE OP High and Low models. Analyses were done by risk categories, CVD risk region, and sex. In 2009, based on SCORE OP Low model almost 42% of elderly adults living in Ecuador were at high risk of suffering CVD over a 5-year period. The extent of agreement between SCORE OP High and Low risk prediction models was moderate (Cohen's kappa test of 0.5), 34% of individuals approximately were reclassified into different risk categories and a third of the population would benefit from a pharmacologic intervention to reduce the CVD risk. Forty-two percent of elderly Ecuadorians were at high risk of suffering CVD over a 5-year period, indicating an urgent need to tailor primary preventive measures for this vulnerable and high-risk population. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  13. Asthma status is associated with decreased risk of aggressive urothelial bladder cancer. (United States)

    Rava, Marta; Czachorowski, Maciej J; Silverman, Debra; Márquez, Mirari; Kishore, Sirish; Tardón, Adonina; Serra, Consol; García-Closas, Montse; Garcia-Closas, Reina; Carrato, Alfredo; Rothman, Nathaniel; Real, Francisco X; Kogevinas, Manolis; Malats, Núria


    Previous studies suggested an association between atopic conditions and specific cancers. The results on the association with urothelial bladder cancer (UBC) are scarce and inconsistent. To evaluate the association between asthma and risk of UBC, we considered 936 cases and 1,022 controls from the Spanish Bladder Cancer/EPICURO Study (86% males, mean age 65.4 years), a multicenter and hospital-based case-control study conducted during 1998-2001. Participants were asked whether they had asthma and detailed information about occupational exposures, smoking habits, dietary factors, medical conditions and history of medication was collected through face-to-face questionnaires performed by trained interviewers. Since asthma and UBC might share risk factors, association between patients' characteristics and asthma was studied in UBC controls. Association between UBC and asthma was assessed using logistic regression unadjusted and adjusted for potential confounders. The complex interrelationships, direct and mediating effect of asthma on UBC, were appraised using counterfactual mediation models. Asthma was associated with a reduced risk of UBC (odds ratio (OR) = 0.54, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.37, 0.79) after adjusting for a wide range of confounders. No mediating effect was identified. The reduced risk associated with asthma was restricted to patients with high-risk non-muscle invasive (OR = 0.25, 95%CI 0.10, 0.62) and muscle invasive UBC (OR = 0.32, 95%CI 0.15, 0.69). Our results support that asthma is associated with a decreased risk of UBC, especially among aggressive tumors. Further work on the relationship between asthma and other atopic conditions and cancer risk should shed light on the relationship between immune response mechanisms and bladder carcinogenesis. © 2017 UICC.

  14. A simple score for estimating the long-term risk of fracture in patients with multiple sclerosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bazelier, M. T.; van Staa, T. P.; Uitdehaag, B. M. J.


    was converted into integer risk scores. Results: In comparison with the FRAX calculator, our risk score contains several new risk factors that have been linked with fracture, which include MS, use of antidepressants, use of anticonvulsants, history of falling, and history of fatigue. We estimated the 5- and 10......Objective: To derive a simple score for estimating the long-term risk of osteoporotic and hip fracture in individual patients with MS. Methods: Using the UK General Practice Research Database linked to the National Hospital Registry (1997-2008), we identified patients with incident MS (n = 5......,494). They were matched 1:6 by year of birth, sex, and practice with patients without MS (control subjects). Cox proportional hazards models were used to calculate the long-term risk of osteoporotic and hip fracture. We fitted the regression model with general and specific risk factors, and the final Cox model...

  15. Risk of iron overload is decreased in beating heart coronary artery surgery compared to conventional bypass. (United States)

    Mumby, S; Koh, T W; Pepper, J R; Gutteridge, J M


    Conventional cardiopulmonary bypass surgery (CCPB) increases the iron loading of plasma transferrin often to a state of plasma iron overload, with the presence of low molecular mass iron. Such iron is a potential risk factor for oxidative stress and microbial virulence. Here we assess 'off-pump' coronary artery surgery on the beating heart for changes in plasma iron chemistry. Seventeen patients undergoing cardiac surgery using the 'Octopus' myocardial wall stabilisation device were monitored at five time points for changes in plasma iron chemistry. This group was further divided into those (n=9) who had one- or two- (n=8) vessel grafts, and compared with eight patients undergoing conventional coronary artery surgery. Patients undergoing beating heart surgery had significantly lower levels of total plasma non-haem iron, and a decreased percentage saturation of their transferrin at all time points compared to conventional bypass patients. Plasma iron overload occurred in only one patient undergoing CCPB. Beating heart surgery appears to decrease red blood cell haemolysis, and tissue damage during the operative procedures and thereby significantly decreases the risk of plasma iron overload associated with conventional bypass.

  16. A Risk Prediction Score for Kidney Failure or Mortality in Rhabdomyolysis (United States)

    McMahon, Gearoid M.; Zeng, Xiaoxi; Waikar, Sushrut S.


    IMPORTANCE Rhabdomyolysis ranges in severity from asymptomatic elevations in creatine phosphokinase levels to a life-threatening disorder characterized by severe acute kidney injury requiring hemodialysis or continuous renal replacement therapy (RRT). OBJECTIVE To develop a risk prediction tool to identify patients at greatest risk of RRT or in-hospital mortality. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Retrospective cohort study of 2371 patients admitted between January 1, 2000, and March 31, 2011, to 2 large teaching hospitals in Boston, Massachusetts, with creatine phosphokinase levels in excess of 5000 U/L within 3 days of admission. The derivation cohort consisted of 1397 patients from Massachusetts General Hospital, and the validation cohort comprised 974 patients from Brigham and Women’s Hospital. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES The composite of RRT or in-hospital mortality. RESULTS The causes and outcomes of rhabdomyolysis were similar between the derivation and validation cohorts. In total, the composite outcome occurred in 19.0% of patients (8.0% required RRT and 14.1% died during hospitalization). The highest rates of the composite outcome were from compartment syndrome (41.2%), sepsis (39.3%), and following cardiac arrest (58.5%). The lowest rates were from myositis (1.7%), exercise (3.2%), and seizures (6.0%). The independent predictors of the composite outcome were age, female sex, cause of rhabdomyolysis, and values of initial creatinine, creatine phosphokinase, phosphate, calcium, and bicarbonate. We developed a risk-prediction score from these variables in the derivation cohort and subsequently applied it in the validation cohort. The C statistic for the prediction model was 0.82 (95% CI, 0.80–0.85) in the derivation cohort and 0.83 (0.80–0.86) in the validation cohort. The Hosmer-Lemeshow P values were .14 and .28, respectively. In the validation cohort, among the patients with the lowest risk score (10), 61.2% died or needed RRT. CONCLUSIONS AND

  17. Prognostic Value of High-Sensitivity Cardiac Troponin T Compared with Risk Scores in Stable Cardiovascular Disease. (United States)

    Biener, Moritz; Giannitsis, Evangelos; Kuhner, Manuel; Zelniker, Thomas; Mueller-Hennessen, Matthias; Vafaie, Mehrshad; Trenk, Dietmar; Neumann, Franz-Josef; Hochholzer, Willibald; Katus, Hugo A


    Risk stratification of patients with cardiovascular disease remains challenging despite consideration of risk scores. We aimed to evaluate the prognostic performance of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T in a low-risk outpatient population presenting for nonsecondary and secondary prevention. All-cause mortality, a composite of all-cause mortality, acute myocardial infarction, and stroke (end point 2), and a composite of all-cause mortality, acute myocardial infarction, stroke and rehospitalization for acute coronary syndrome, and decompensated heart failure (end point 3) were defined. The prognostic performance of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T on index visit was compared with the PROCAM score and 3 FRAMINGHAM subscores. In 693 patients with a median follow-up of 796 days, we observed 16 deaths, 32 patients with end point 2, and 83 patients with end point 3. All risk scores performed better in the prediction of all-cause mortality in nonsecondary prevention (area under the curve [AUC]: PROCAM: 0.922 vs 0.523, P = .001, consistent for all other scores). In secondary prevention, high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T outperformed all risk scores in the prediction of all-cause mortality (ΔAUC: PROCAM: 0.319, P risk scores. Our findings on the prediction of all-cause mortality compared with the FRAMINGHAM-Hard Coronary Heart Disease score were confirmed in an independent validation cohort on 2046 patients. High-sensitivity troponin T provides excellent risk stratification regarding all-cause mortality and all-cause mortality, acute myocardial infarction, and stroke in a secondary prevention cohort in whom risk scores perform poorly. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Chemotherapy Toxicity Risk Score for Treatment Decisions in Older Adults with Advanced Solid Tumors. (United States)

    Nishijima, Tomohiro F; Deal, Allison M; Williams, Grant R; Sanoff, Hanna K; Nyrop, Kirsten A; Muss, Hyman B


    The decision whether to treat older adults with advanced cancer with standard therapy (ST) or reduced therapy (RT) is complicated by heterogeneity in aging. We assessed the potential utility of the chemotherapy toxicity risk score (CTRS) [J Clin Oncol 2011;29:3457-3465] for treatment decisions in older adults. This was a prospective observational study of patients aged ≥65 years receiving first-line chemotherapy for advanced cancer for which combination chemotherapy is the standard of care. Patients were categorized as high risk (CTRS ≥10), for whom RT (dose-reduced combination or single-agent chemotherapy) is deemed appropriate, or nonhigh risk (CTRS statistic. Fifty-eight patients (median age, 71 years) were enrolled. Thirty-eight patients received ST (21 had CTRS advanced solid tumors receiving first-line chemotherapy was assessed. Little agreement was found between chemotherapy treatment decisions based on the clinical impression versus what was recommended based on the CTRS. Among patients treated with standard-dose combination chemotherapy, patients with CTRS ≥10 had a very high incidence of grade 3-4 toxicities and hospitalization, which was significantly greater than that of patients with a low CTRS (<10). These findings suggest that the addition of CTRS to the clinical impression has a potential to improve treatment decisions. © AlphaMed Press 2018.

  19. Can an arthroplasty risk score predict bundled care events after total joint arthroplasty?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Blair S. Ashley, MD


    Full Text Available Background: The validated Arthroplasty Risk Score (ARS predicts the need for postoperative triage to an intensive care setting. We hypothesized that the ARS may also predict hospital length of stay (LOS, discharge disposition, and episode-of-care cost (EOCC. Methods: We retrospectively reviewed a series of 704 patients undergoing primary total hip and knee arthroplasty over 17 months. Patient characteristics, 90-day EOCC, LOS, and readmission rates were compared before and after ARS implementation. Results: ARS implementation was associated with fewer patients going to a skilled nursing or rehabilitation facility after discharge (63% vs 74%, P = .002. There was no difference in LOS, EOCC, readmission rates, or complications. While the adoption of the ARS did not change the mean EOCC, ARS >3 was predictive of high EOCC outlier (odds ratio 2.65, 95% confidence interval 1.40-5.01, P = .003. Increased ARS correlated with increased EOCC (P = .003. Conclusions: Implementation of the ARS was associated with increased disposition to home. It was predictive of high EOCC and should be considered in risk adjustment variables in alternative payment models. Keywords: Bundled payments, Risk stratification, Arthroplasty

  20. Decreased lung function after preschool wheezing rhinovirus illnesses in children at risk to develop asthma. (United States)

    Guilbert, Theresa W; Singh, Anne Marie; Danov, Zoran; Evans, Michael D; Jackson, Daniel J; Burton, Ryan; Roberg, Kathy A; Anderson, Elizabeth L; Pappas, Tressa E; Gangnon, Ronald; Gern, James E; Lemanske, Robert F


    Preschool rhinovirus (RV) wheezing illnesses predict an increased risk of childhood asthma; however, it is not clear how specific viral illnesses in early life relate to lung function later on in childhood. To determine the relationship of virus-specific wheezing illnesses and lung function in a longitudinal cohort of children at risk for asthma. Two hundred thirty-eight children were followed prospectively from birth to 8 years of age. Early life viral wheezing respiratory illnesses were assessed by using standard techniques, and lung function was assessed annually by using spirometry and impulse oscillometry. The relationships of these virus-specific wheezing illnesses and lung function were assessed by using mixed-effect linear regression. Children with RV wheezing illness demonstrated significantly decreased spirometry values, FEV(1) (P = .001), FEV(0.5) (P Children who wheezed with respiratory syncytial virus or other viral illnesses did not have any significant differences in spirometric or impulse oscillometry indices when compared with children who did not. Children diagnosed with asthma at ages 6 or 8 years had significantly decreased FEF(25-75) (P = .05) compared with children without asthma. Among outpatient viral wheezing illnesses in early childhood, those caused by RV infections are the most significant predictors of decreased lung function up to age 8 years in a high-risk birth cohort. Whether low lung function is a cause and/or effect of RV wheezing illnesses is yet to be determined. Copyright © 2011 American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. The predictive value of CHADS₂ risk score in post myocardial infarction arrhythmias - a Cardiac Arrhythmias and RIsk Stratification after Myocardial infArction (CARISMA) substudy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ruwald, Anne-Christine Huth; Gang, Uffe; Thomsen, Poul Erik Bloch


    BACKGROUND: Previous studies have shown substantially increased risk of cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death in post-myocardial infarction (MI) patients. However it remains difficult to identify the patients who are at highest risk of arrhythmias in the post-MI setting. The purpose...... of this study was to investigate if CHADS₂ score (congestive heart failure, hypertension, age ≥75 years, diabetes and previous stroke/TCI [doubled]) can be used as a risk tool for predicting cardiac arrhythmias after MI. METHODS: The study included 297 post-MI patients from the CARISMA study with left....... Patients were stratified according to CHADS₂ score at enrollment. Congestive heart failure was defined as LVEF ≤40% and NYHA class II, III or IV. RESULTS: We found significantly increased risk of an arrhythmic event with increasing CHADS₂ score (CHADS₂ score=1-2: HR=2.1 [1.1-3.9], p=0.021, CHADS₂ score ≥ 3...

  2. Could symptoms and risk factors diagnose COPD? Development of a Diagnosis Score for COPD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salameh P


    Full Text Available Pascale Salameh,1 Georges Khayat,2 Mirna Waked31Faculties of Pharmacy and of Public Health, Lebanese University, Beirut, 2Faculty of Medicine, Hôtel Dieu de France Hospital, Beirut and Saint Joseph University, Beirut, 3Faculty of Medicine, Saint George Hospital, Beirut and Balamand University, Beirut, LebanonBackground: Diagnosing chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD without spirometry is still a challenge. Our objective in this study was to develop a scale for diagnosis of COPD.Methods: Data were taken from a cross-sectional epidemiological study. After reducing chronic respiratory symptoms, a logistic regression was used to select risk factors for and symptoms of COPD. The rounded coefficients generated a Diagnosis Score for COPD (DS-COPD, which was dichotomized and differentiated between COPD and other individuals with respiratory symptoms.Results: We constructed a tool for COPD diagnosis with good properties, comprising 12 items. The area under the curve was 0.849; the positive predictive value was 76% if the DS-COPD was >20 and the negative predictive value was 97% if the DS-COPD was <10. A DS-COPD of 10–19 represented a zone mostly suggestive of no COPD (77%. The score was also inversely correlated with forced expiratory volume in 1 second/forced vital capacity.Conclusion: In this study, a tool for diagnosis of COPD was constructed with good properties for use in the epidemiological setting, mainly in cases of low or high scoring. It would be of particular interest in the primary care setting, where spirometry may not be available. Prospective studies and application in clinical settings would be necessary to validate this scale further.Keywords: diagnosis, scale, development, spirometry

  3. Quantifying the impact of using Coronary Artery Calcium Score for risk categorization instead of Framingham Score or European Heart SCORE in lipid lowering algorithms in a Middle Eastern population. (United States)

    Isma'eel, Hussain A; Almedawar, Mohamad M; Harbieh, Bernard; Alajaji, Wissam; Al-Shaar, Laila; Hourani, Mukbil; El-Merhi, Fadi; Alam, Samir; Abchee, Antoine


    The use of the Coronary Artery Calcium Score (CACS) for risk categorization instead of the Framingham Risk Score (FRS) or European Heart SCORE (EHS) to improve classification of individuals is well documented. However, the impact of reclassifying individuals using CACS on initiating lipid lowering therapy is not well understood. We aimed to determine the percentage of individuals not requiring lipid lowering therapy as per the FRS and EHS models but are found to require it using CACS and vice versa; and to determine the level of agreement between CACS, FRS and EHS based models. Data was collected for 500 consecutive patients who had already undergone CACS. However, only 242 patients met the inclusion criteria and were included in the analysis. Risk stratification comparisons were conducted according to CACS, FRS, and EHS, and the agreement (Kappa) between them was calculated. In accordance with the models, 79.7% to 81.5% of high-risk individuals were down-classified by CACS, while 6.8% to 7.6% of individuals at intermediate risk were up-classified to high risk by CACS, with slight to moderate agreement. Moreover, CACS recommended treatment to 5.7% and 5.8% of subjects untreated according to European and Canadian guidelines, respectively; whereas 75.2% to 81.2% of those treated in line with the guidelines would not be treated based on CACS. In this simulation, using CACS for risk categorization warrants lipid lowering treatment for 5-6% and spares 70-80% from treatment in accordance with the guidelines. Current strong evidence from double randomized clinical trials is in support of guideline recommendations. Our results call for a prospective trial to explore the benefits/risks of a CACS-based approach before any recommendations can be made.

  4. The role of risk management in decrease of lawsuits of swimming pools

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Behzad Izadi


    Full Text Available The purpose of this research is to study of risk management practices in decrease of lawsuits in public and private swimming pools in Tehran. The statistical population of the research included 310 managers of public and private swimming pools which 119 were selected as statistical samples by means of random sampling. The research method was descriptive and survey, and in measurement form. 2 questionnaires were used, on relating to demographic data and general information and the other to risk management practices and their validity was determined by alpha Cronbach method. The required information was collected by personal interviews during the time acting of managers in pools gathered and the data was analyzed by using person correlation coefficient. The result of this study indicated that: Significant relationship existed between incidents of accidents/injuries and lawsuits in swimming pools in Tehran. Significant relationship existed between risk management practice and accidents/injuries and lawsuits. Significant relationship existed between risk management practice and lawsuits and lawsuits.

  5. Is the phototransformation of pharmaceuticals a natural purification process that decreases ecological and human health risks?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Xiao-Huan; Lin, Angela Yu-Chen


    Sunlight photodegradation has long been considered a significant process in lowering the concentrations of pharmaceuticals in surface waters and thus decreasing the ecological risk. For the first time, this study identified the significance of investigating the environmental photodegradation of a pharmaceutical residue mixture (rather than a single compound) and the associated toxicity of transformation byproducts in environmental waters, including rivers, hospital wastewaters, and effluents from wastewater treatment plants and pharmaceutical production facilities. Pharmaceuticals undergo phototransformation rather than mineralization (11–23% in 34 h). Pharmaceutical mixtures could possibly act as dissolved organic matter for each individual compound and subsequently affect the photolysis rates. The increased toxicity of irradiated pharmaceutical mixtures challenges the validity of the current understanding of sunlight photolysis. The implications of this work suggest that current knowledge concerning the occurrence, natural attenuation, ecotoxicity, and human health risks of pharmaceuticals is far from complete; photolysis is not necessarily a purification process. -- Highlights: • Pharmaceutical mixtures could possibly act as DOMs for each other. • Pharmaceuticals underwent merely phototransformation rather than mineralization. • Increased toxicity from photo byproducts associated with the pharmaceutical mixture. • Phototransformation does not necessary mitigate the risk to human and the ecosystem. -- Transformation byproducts associated with a pharmaceutical mixture could be more toxic, and phototransformation does not necessary mitigate the risk to humans and the ecosystem

  6. Solid malignant neoplasms after childhood irradiation: decrease of the relative risk with time after irradiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vathaire, F. de; Shamsaldin, A.; Grimaud, E.; Campbell, S.; Guerra, M.; Raquin, M.; Hardiman, C.; Jan, P.; Rumeau, N.; Diallo, I.; Nicolazic, G.; Lamon, A.; Oberlin, O.; Cervens, C. de; Suarez, A.; Meresse, V.; Eschwege, F.; Sancho-Garnier, H.; Chavaudra, J.; Lermerle, J.; Bessa, E.; Bell, J.; Hawkins, M.; Schlienger, J.Y.; Panis, X.; Lagrande, J.L.; Gaboriaud, G.; Zucker, J.M.; Daly-Schveitzer, N.


    The pattern of the temporal distribution of solid cancer incidence after irradiation in childhood is not well known, although, its importance in radioprotection is well known. We studied a cohort of 1 055 children from 8 European cancer centres, who received radiotherapy between 1942 and 1985 for a first cancer in childhood. After a mean follow-up of 19 years, 26 children developed a solid second malignant neoplasm (SMN), as compared to 5.6 expected from general population rates. Both the excess relative risk and the excess of absolute risk of solid SMN were higher among children who were younger at time of the irradiation. After reaching a maximum 15 to 20 years after irradiation, the excess relative risk of SMN decreased with time after irradiation, when controlling for age at irradiation and sex. The analysis of the risk of thyroid, brain and breast cancer together, as a function of the dose averaged on these 3 organs lead to similar results. (authors). 16 refs., 8 tabs., 2 figs

  7. Depression as a modifiable factor to decrease the risk of dementia (United States)

    Almeida, O P; Hankey, G J; Yeap, B B; Golledge, J; Flicker, L


    Depression is an accepted risk factor for dementia, but it is unclear if this relationship is causal. This study investigated whether dementia associated with depression decreases with antidepressant use and is independent of the time between exposure to depression and the onset of dementia. We completed a 14-year longitudinal study of 4922 cognitively healthy men aged 71–89 years, and collected information about history of past depression, current depression and severity of depressive symptoms. Other measures included use of antidepressants, age, education, smoking and history of diabetes, hypertension, coronary heart disease, and stroke. The onset of dementia and death during follow-up was ascertained via the Western Australian Data Linkage System. A total of 682 men had past (n=388) or current (n=294) depression. During 8.9 years follow-up, 903 (18.3%) developed dementia and 1884 (38.3%) died free of dementia. The sub-hazard ratios (SHRs) of dementia for men with past and current depression were 1.3 (95% confidence interval (CI)=1.0, 1.6) and 1.5 (95% CI=1.2, 2.0). The use of antidepressants did not decrease this risk. Compared to men with no symptoms, the SHRs of dementia associated with questionable, mild-to-moderate and severe depressive symptoms were 1.2 (95% CI=1.0, 1.4), 1.7 (95% CI=1.4, 2.2) and 2.1 (95% CI=1.4, 3.2), respectively. The association between depression and dementia was only apparent during the initial 5 years of follow-up. Older men with history of depression are at increased risk of developing dementia, but depression is more likely to be a marker of incipient dementia than a truly modifiable risk factor. PMID:28463236

  8. Do family dinners reduce the risk for early adolescent substance use? A propensity score analysis. (United States)

    Hoffmann, John P; Warnick, Elizabeth


    The risks of early adolescent substance use on health and well-being are well documented. In recent years, several experts have claimed that a simple preventive measure for these behaviors is for families to share evening meals. In this study, we use data from the 1997 National Longitudinal Study of Youth (n = 5,419) to estimate propensity score models designed to match on a set of covariates and predict early adolescent substance use frequency and initiation. The results indicate that family dinners are not generally associated with alcohol or cigarette use or with drug use initiation. However, a continuous measure of family dinners is modestly associated with marijuana frequency, thus suggesting a potential causal impact. These results show that family dinners may help prevent one form of substance use in the short term but do not generally affect substance use initiation or alcohol and cigarette use.

  9. The Prevalence of Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors and the Framingham Risk Score in Patients Undergoing Percutaneous Intervention Over the Last 17 Years by Gender: Time-trend Analysis From the Mayo Clinic PCI Registry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moo-Sik Lee


    Full Text Available Objectives: This study aims to investigate trends of cardiovascular disease (CVD risk factor profiles over 17 years in percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI patients at the Mayo Clinic. Methods: We performed a time-trend analysis within the Mayo Clinic PCI Registry from 1994 to 2010. Results were the incidence and prevalence of CVD risk factors as estimate by the Framingham risk score. Results: Between 1994 and 2010, 25 519 patients underwent a PCI. During the time assessed, the mean age at PCI became older, but the gender distribution did not change. A significant trend towards higher body mass index and more prevalent hypercholesterolemia, hypertension, and diabetes was found over time. The prevalence of current smokers remained unchanged. The prevalence of ever-smokers decreased among males, but increased among females. However, overall CVD risk according to the Framingham risk score (FRS and 10-year CVD risk significantly decreased. The use of most of medications elevated from 1994 to 2010, except for β-blockers and angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors decreased after 2007 and 2006 in both baseline and discharge, respectively. Conclusions: Most of the major risk factors improved and the FRS and 10-year CVD risk declined in this population of PCI patients. However, obesity, history of hypercholesterolemia, hypertension, diabetes, and medication use increased substantially. Improvements to blood pressure and lipid profile management because of medication use may have influenced the positive trends.

  10. Seed Implant Retention Score Predicts the Risk of Prolonged Urinary Retention After Prostate Brachytherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Hoon K.; Adams, Marc T.; Shi, Qiuhu; Basillote, Jay; LaMonica, Joanne; Miranda, Luis; Motta, Joseph


    Purpose: To risk-stratify patients for urinary retention after prostate brachytherapy according to a novel seed implant retention score (SIRS). Patients and Methods: A total of 835 patients underwent transperineal prostate seed implant from March 1993 to January 2007; 197 patients had 125 I and 638 patients had 103 Pd brachytherapy. Four hundred ninety-four patients had supplemental external-beam radiation. The final downsized prostate volume was used for the 424 patients who had neoadjuvant hormone therapy. Retention was defined as reinsertion of a Foley catheter after the implant. Results: Retention developed in 7.4% of patients, with an average duration of 6.7 weeks. On univariate analysis, implant without supplemental external-beam radiation (10% vs. 5.6%; p = 0.02), neoadjuvant hormone therapy (9.4% vs. 5.4%; p = 0.02), baseline α-blocker use (12.5% vs. 6.3%; p = 0.008), and increased prostate volume (13.4% vs. 6.9% vs. 2.9%, >45 cm 3 , 25-45 cm 3 , 3 ; p = 0.0008) were significantly correlated with increased rates of retention. On multivariate analysis, implant without supplemental external-beam radiation, neoadjuvant hormone therapy, baseline α-blocker use, and increased prostate volume were correlated with retention. A novel SIRS was modeled as the combined score of these factors, ranging from 0 to 5. There was a significant correlation between the SIRS and retention (p < 0.0001). The rates of retention were 0, 4%, 5.6%, 9%, 20.9%, and 36.4% for SIRS of 0 to 5, respectively. Conclusions: The SIRS may identify patients who are at high risk for prolonged retention after prostate brachytherapy. A prospective validation study of the SIRS is planned.

  11. Children with hypercholesterolemia of unknown cause: Value of genetic risk scores. (United States)

    Sjouke, Barbara; Tanck, Michael W T; Fouchier, Sigrid W; Defesche, Joep C; Hutten, Barbara A; Wiegman, Albert; Kastelein, John J P; Hovingh, G Kees


    Familial hypercholesterolemia (FH) is caused by mutations in LDLR, APOB, or PCSK9, and in a previous study, we identified a causative mutation in these FH genes in 95% (255 of 269) of children with the FH phenotype. It has been hypothesized that a polygenic form of hypercholesterolemia is present in FH patients in whom no mutation is identified in the 3 FH genes. To address whether a polygenic form of hypercholesterolemia, defined as high-weighted effect of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) raising SNPs expressed as the genetic risk score (GRS), is present in the remaining 14 children. On reassessment of the molecular diagnosis and clinical phenotype, 8 FH kindreds met the criteria for hypercholesterolemia of unknown cause and were included in this study. We calculated a weighted GRS comprising 10 established LDL-C-associated SNPs and the APOE genotype in these index cases and evaluated whether the index cases were characterized by an increased GRS compared to 26 first-degree relatives. Phenotypically affected and unaffected individuals could not be distinguished based on any of the risk scores. In this and our previous study, we show that a causal mutation in LDLR, APOB, and PCSK9 can be identified in almost all children with a definite clinical diagnosis of FH. In the small group of patients without a mutation, we did not observe a higher GRS compared with unaffected relatives, which suggests that the FH phenotype is not caused by the aggregate of LDL-C increasing SNPs. Our data imply that application of the GRS is not instrumental as a diagnostic tool to individually define clinically diagnosed FH patients with polygenic hypercholesterolemia in our study population. Copyright © 2016 National Lipid Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Usefulness of the Trabecular Bone Score for assessing the risk of osteoporotic fracture. (United States)

    Redondo, L; Puigoriol, E; Rodríguez, J R; Peris, P; Kanterewicz, E


    The trabecular bone score (TBS) is an imaging technique that assesses the condition of the trabecular microarchitecture. Preliminary results suggest that TBS, along with the bone mineral density assessment, could improve the calculation of the osteoporotic fracture risk. The aim of this study was to analyse TBS values and their relationship with the clinical characteristics, bone mineral density and history of fractures of a cohort of posmenopausal women. We analysed 2,257 posmenopausal women from the FRODOS cohort, which was created to determine the risk factors for osteoporotic fracture through a clinical survey and bone densitometry with vertebral morphometry. TBS was applied to the densitometry images. TBS values ≤1230 were considered indicative of degraded microarchitecture. We performed a simple and multiple linear regression to determine the factors associated with this index. The mean TBS value in L1-L4 was 1.203±0.121. Some 55.3% of the women showed values indicating degraded microarchitecture. In the multiple linear regression analysis, the factors associated with low TBS values were age, weight, height, spinal T-score, glucocorticoid treatment, presence of type 2 diabetes and a history of fractures due to frailty. TBS showed microarchitecture degradation values in the participants of the FRODOS cohort and was associated with anthropometric factors, low bone mineral density values, the presence of fractures, a history of type 2 diabetes mellitus and the use of glucocorticoids. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier España, S.L.U. and Sociedad Española de Medicina Interna (SEMI). All rights reserved.

  13. Complete blood count risk score and its components, including RDW, are associated with mortality in the JUPITER trial. (United States)

    Horne, Benjamin D; Anderson, Jeffrey L; Muhlestein, Joseph B; Ridker, Paul M; Paynter, Nina P


    Previously, we showed that sex-specific complete blood count (CBC) risk scores strongly predicted risk of all-cause mortality in multiple sets of general medical patients. This study evaluated the CBC risk score in an independent, well-studied international primary risk population of lower-risk individuals initially free from cardiovascular (CV) disease. Observational secondary analysis of a randomized trial population. The previously derived and validated CBC score was evaluated for association with all-cause mortality among CV disease-free females (n = 6568) and males (n = 10,629) enrolled for up to 5 years in the Justification for the Use of Statins in Prevention: an Intervention Trial Evaluating Rosuvastatin (JUPITER) trial. Associations of the CBC score with CV mortality and with major CV disease were also tested. The CBC score predicted all-cause mortality, with univariable hazard ratio (HR) 4.83 (95% CI 3.70-6.31) for the third CBC score tertile vs. the first tertile, and HR 2.31 (CI 1.75-3.05) for the second tertile (p trend JUPITER endpoint (p trend = 0.015). c-statistics for mortality were 0.729 among all, and 0.722 and 0.750 for females and males, respectively. The CBC risk score was strongly associated with all-cause mortality among JUPITER trial participants and had good discrimination. It also predicted CV-specific outcomes. This CBC score may be useful in identifying cardiac disease-free individuals at increased risk of mortality. © The European Society of Cardiology 2014 Reprints and permissions:

  14. Genetic risk analysis of coronary artery disease in Pakistani subjects using a genetic risk score of 21 variants. (United States)

    Shahid, Saleem Ullah; Shabana; Cooper, Jackie A; Beaney, Katherine E; Li, Kawah; Rehman, Abdul; Humphries, Steve E


    Conventional coronary artery disease (CAD) risk factors like age, gender, blood lipids, hypertension and smoking have been the basis of CAD risk prediction algorithms, but provide only modest discrimination. Genetic risk score (GRS) may provide improved discrimination over and above conventional risk factors. Here we analyzed the genetic risk of CAD in subjects from Pakistan, using a GRS of 21 variants in 18 genes and examined whether the GRS is associated with blood lipid levels. 625 (405 cases and 220 controls) subjects were genotyped for variants, NOS3 rs1799983, SMAD3 rs17228212, APOB rs1042031, LPA rs3798220, LPA rs10455872, SORT1 rs646776, APOE rs429358, GLUL rs10911021, FTO rs9939609, MIA3 rs17465637, CDKN2Ars10757274, DAB2IP rs7025486, CXCL12 rs1746048, ACE rs4341, APOA5 rs662799, CETP rs708272, MRAS rs9818870, LPL rs328, LPL rs1801177, PCSK9 rs11591147 and APOE rs7412 by TaqMan and KASPar allele discrimination techniques. Individually, the single SNPs were not associated with CAD except APOB rs1042031 and FTO rs993969 (p = 0.01 and 0.009 respectively). However, the combined GRS of 21 SNPs was significantly higher in cases than controls (19.37 ± 2.56 vs. 18.47 ± 2.45, p = 2.9 × 10 -5 ), and compared to the bottom quintile, CAD risk in the top quintile of the GRS was 2.96 (95% CI 1.71-5.13). Atherogenic blood lipids showed significant positive association with GRS. The GRS was quantitatively associated with CAD risk and showed association with blood lipid levels, suggesting that the mechanism of these variants is likely to be, in part at least, through creating an atherogenic lipid profile in subjects carrying high numbers of risk alleles. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Association between duration of reproductive lifespan and Framingham risk score in postmenopausal women. (United States)

    Kim, Soo Hyun; Sim, Mu Yul; Park, Sat Byul


    The benefit of estrogen therapy in postmenopausal women is still uncertain. Based upon extensive observational data, it was believed that estrogen was cardioprotective. The relationship between the period of exposure to endogenous estrogens and the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) has not been studied in Korean women. To assess associations between reproductive lifespan and CVD by using the Framingham risk score (FRS) in postmenopausal Korean women. This cross-sectional, population-based study used data from the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES) for the five years 2008-2012,after adjustment for relevant variables using complex sample analysis and data weighting. Among 25,534 women, 1973 women were enrolled, after excluding those 80 years of age (n=6194), those with diabetes, CVD or cancer (n=491), those with unrecorded physical measurements (n=7335), those with menarche age ≤8 years or ≥20 years (n=6194), and premenopausal women (n=3347). The FRS tended to show a significant negative correlation with the reproductive lifespan (preproductive lifespan and FRS (adjusted relative risk [RR] for reproductive years [shortest lifespan group] compared with 28-33 reproductive years [moderate lifespan group], 1.2, p33 reproductive years [longest lifespan group] compared with 28-33 reproductive years [moderate lifespan group], -0.42, p=0.011). A longer reproductive lifespan is associated with a lower estimated risk of CVD in the next 10 years in postmenopausal women. This result suggests that estrogen has a long-term protective effect against CVD. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. A four-year cardiovascular risk score for type 2 diabetic inpatients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dolores Ramírez-Prado


    Full Text Available As cardiovascular risk tables currently in use were constructed using data from the general population, the cardiovascular risk of patients admitted via the hospital emergency department may be underestimated. Accordingly, we constructed a predictive model for the appearance of cardiovascular diseases in patients with type 2 diabetes admitted via the emergency department. We undertook a four-year follow-up of a cohort of 112 adult patients with type 2 diabetes admitted via the emergency department for any cause except patients admitted with acute myocardial infarction, stroke, cancer, or a palliative status. The sample was selected randomly between 2010 and 2012. The primary outcome was time to cardiovascular disease. Other variables (at baseline were gender, age, heart failure, renal failure, depression, asthma/chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, hypertension, dyslipidaemia, insulin, smoking, admission for cardiovascular causes, pills per day, walking habit, fasting blood glucose and creatinine. A cardiovascular risk table was constructed based on the score to estimate the likelihood of cardiovascular disease. Risk groups were established and the c-statistic was calculated. Over a mean follow-up of 2.31 years, 39 patients had cardiovascular disease (34.8%, 95% CI [26.0–43.6%]. Predictive factors were gender, age, hypertension, renal failure, insulin, admission due to cardiovascular reasons and walking habit. The c-statistic was 0.734 (standard error: 0.049. After validation, this study will provide a tool for the primary health care services to enable the short-term prediction of cardiovascular disease after hospital discharge in patients with type 2 diabetes admitted via the emergency department.

  17. A genetic risk score is associated with polycystic ovary syndrome-related traits. (United States)

    Lee, Hyejin; Oh, Jee-Young; Sung, Yeon-Ah; Chung, Hye Won


    Is a genetic risk score (GRS) associated with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) and its related clinical features? The GRS calculated by genome-wide association studies (GWASs) was significantly associated with PCOS status and its related clinical features. PCOS is a heterogeneous disorder and is characterized by oligomenorrhea, hyperandrogenism and polycystic ovary morphology. Although recent GWASs have identified multiple genes associated with PCOS, a comprehensive genetic risk study of these loci with PCOS and related traits (e.g. free testosterone, menstruation number/year and ovarian morphology) has not been performed. This study was designed as a cross-sectional case-control study. We recruited 862 women with PCOS and 860 controls. Women with PCOS were divided into four subgroups: (1) oligomenorrhea + hyperandrogenism + polycystic ovary, (2) oligomenorrhea + hyperandrogenism, (3) oligomenorrhea + polycystic ovary and (4) hyperandrogenism + polycystic ovary. Genomic DNA was genotyped for the PCOS susceptibility loci using the HumanOmni1-Quad v1 array. Venous blood was drawn in the early follicular phase to measure baseline metabolic and hormonal parameters. A GRS was calculated by summing the number of risk alleles from 11 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that were identified in previous GWASs on PCOS. A weighted GRS (wGRS) was calculated by multiplying the number of risk alleles for each SNP by its estimated effect (beta) obtained from the association analysis. The GRS was higher in women with PCOS than in controls (8.8 versus 8.2, P treatment approaches, which could potentially improve health outcomes. None of the authors have any conflicts of interest to declare. No funding was obtained for the study. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society of Human Reproduction and Embryology. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email:

  18. Evaluation of the Yale New Haven Readmission Risk Score for Pneumonia in a General Hospital Population. (United States)

    Schaefer, Gabrielle; El-Kareh, Robert; Quartarolo, Jennifer; Seymann, Gregory


    The Yale New Haven Readmission Risk Score (YNHRRS) for pneumonia is a clinical prediction tool developed to assess risk for 30-day readmission. This tool was validated in a cohort of Medicare patients; generalizability to a broader patient population has not been evaluated. In addition, it lacks indicators of functional status or social support, which have been shown in other studies to be predictors of readmission. The objective of this study was to evaluate the generalizability of the YNHRRS for pneumonia in a general population of hospitalized patients, and assess the impact of incorporating measures of functional status and social support on its predictive value. This retrospective chart review comprised all patients admitted to a 563-bed academic medical center with a primary diagnosis of pneumonia between March 2014 and March 2015. Abstraction of clinical variables allowed calculation of the YNHRRS and additional indicators of functional status and social support. The primary outcome was 30-day readmission rate. We created a logistic regression model to predict readmission using the YNHRRS, functional status, and social support as covariates. Among 270 discharges with pneumonia, the observed readmission rate was 23%. The YNHRRS was a significant predictor of readmission in our multivariate model, with an odds ratio of 2.20 (95% confidence interval, 1.29-3.73) for each 10% increase in calculated risk. Indicators of functional status and social support were not significant predictors of readmission. The YNHRRS can be applied to an unselected population as a tool to predict patients with pneumonia at risk for readmission. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Influence of bone mineral density measurement on fracture risk assessment tool® scores in postmenopausal Indian women. (United States)

    Daswani, Bhavna; Desai, Meena; Mitra, Sumegha; Gavali, Shubhangi; Patil, Anushree; Kukreja, Subhash; Khatkhatay, M Ikram


    Fracture risk assessment tool® calculations can be performed with or without addition of bone mineral density; however, the impact of this addition on fracture risk assessment tool® scores has not been studied in Indian women. Given the limited availability and high cost of bone mineral density testing in India, it is important to know the influence of bone mineral density on fracture risk assessment tool® scores in Indian women. Therefore, our aim was to assess the contribution of bone mineral density in fracture risk assessment tool® outcome in Indian women. Apparently healthy postmenopausal Indian women (n = 506), aged 40-72 years, without clinical risk factors for bone disease, were retrospectively selected, and their fracture risk assessment tool® scores calculated with and without bone mineral density were compared. Based on WHO criteria, 30% women were osteoporotic, 42.9% were osteopenic and 27.1% had normal bone mineral density. Fracture risk assessment tool® scores for risk of both major osteoporotic fracture and hip fracture significantly increased on including bone mineral density (P women eligible without bone mineral density was 0 and with bone mineral density was 1, P > 0.05, whereas, for hip fracture risk number of women eligible without bone mineral density was 2 and with bone mineral density was 17, P Indian women. © The Author(s) 2016.

  20. Genetic Risk Can Be Decreased: Quitting Smoking Decreases and Delays Lung Cancer for Smokers With High and Low CHRNA5 Risk Genotypes — A Meta-Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li-Shiun Chen


    Conclusion: We demonstrate that quitting smoking is highly beneficial in reducing lung cancer risks for smokers regardless of their CHRNA5 rs16969968 genetic risk status. Smokers with high-risk CHRNA5 genotypes, on average, can largely eliminate their elevated genetic risk for lung cancer by quitting smoking- cutting their risk of lung cancer in half and delaying its onset by 7 years for those who develop it. These results: 1 underscore the potential value of smoking cessation for all smokers, 2 suggest that CHRNA5 rs16969968 genotype affects lung cancer diagnosis through its effects on smoking, and 3 have potential value for framing preventive interventions for those who smoke.

  1. Modelo predictivo de "score" de calcio alto en pacientes con factores de riesgo cardiovascular Predictive model of high calcium score in patients with cardiovascular risk factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gloria Franco


    prueba del score de calcio coronario a un paciente con factores de riesgo cardiovascular. Se puede observar que muchos de los factores de riesgo que se correlacionan con un valor elevado de "score" de calcio coronario pueden ser modificables: cesar el hábito de fumar o realizar ejercicio.Introduction: it has been found through multiple studies that coronary calcium score is a good predictor of coronary disease in asymptomatic individuals with one or more cardiovascular risk factors; therefore it would be ideal to perform this test in order to stratify its risk, but due to economic factors this is not possible in most cases. The model presented allows predicting the probability that a patient may have a high coronary calcium score by means of his cardiovascular risk factors. The originality of the model is that it also comprises "protector" factors that diminish such probability. Methods: study of cases and controls in asymptomatic patients with cardiovascular risk factors to whom a PCC had been performed. The cases are patients with coronary calcium score greater than percentile 75 for his age and gender; the control case relationship is 2:1. Results: ages ranged between 35 and 75 years; 14.4% were female; 44.4% had family history of CHD; 34.4% were hypertensive; 38.9% had high total cholesterol; 24.4% had HDL cholesterol under 40 mg/dl; 33.3% had LDL cholesterol greater than 160 mg/dl; 25.6% were cigarette smokers; 23.3% were sedentary; 13.3% were periodical alcohol consumers; 15.6% were obese (BMI > 30; 18.9% exercised periodically and 34.4% received statins. Cardiovascular risk factors correlated with high coronary calcium score are recorded in table 1. In the logistic regression model, factors having a p table 2 are obtained. Expression for the model would be: The values of ci values are 1, if the factor is present and 0 if it is not. Conclusions: this model does not pretend to replace stratification through Framinghan model; on the contrary, it is a complement that

  2. Improved predictive value of GRACE risk score combined with platelet reactivity for 1-year cardiovascular risk in patients with acute coronary syndrome who underwent coronary stent implantation. (United States)

    Li, Shan; Liu, Hongbin; Liu, Jianfeng; Wang, Haijun


    Both high platelet reactivity (HPR) and Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) risk score have moderate predictive value for major adverse cardiovascular disease (CVD) events in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) who underwent percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI), whereas the prognostic significance of GRACE risk score combined with platelet function testing remains unclear. A total of 596 patients with non-ST elevation ACS who underwent PCI were enrolled. The P2Y 12 reaction unit (PRU) value was measured by VerifyNow P2Y 12 assay and GRACE score was calculated by GRACE risk 2.0 calculator. Patients were stratified by a pre-specified cutoff value of PRU 230 and GRACE score 140 to assess 1-year risk of cardiovascular death, non-fatal myocardial infarction (MI), and stent thrombosis. Seventy-two (12.1%) patients developed CVD events during 1-year follow-up. Patients with CVD events had a higher PRU value (244.6 ± 50.9 vs. 203.7 ± 52.0, p risk independently. Compared to patients with normal platelet reactivity (NPR) and GRACE score risk (HR: 5.048; 95% CI: 2.268-11.237; p risk score yielded superior risk predictive capacity beyond GRACE score alone, which is shown by improved c-statistic value (0.871, p = 0.002) as well as net reclassification improvement (NRI 0.263, p risk of adverse CVD events. The combination of platelet function testing and GRACE score predicted 1-year CVD risk better.

  3. Value of adding the renal pathological score to the kidney failure risk equation in advanced diabetic nephropathy.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Masayuki Yamanouchi

    Full Text Available There have been a limited number of biopsy-based studies on diabetic nephropathy, and therefore the clinical importance of renal biopsy in patients with diabetes in late-stage chronic kidney disease (CKD is still debated. We aimed to clarify the renal prognostic value of pathological information to clinical information in patients with diabetes and advanced CKD.We retrospectively assessed 493 type 2 diabetics with biopsy-proven diabetic nephropathy in four centers in Japan. 296 patients with stage 3-5 CKD at the time of biopsy were identified and assigned two risk prediction scores for end-stage renal disease (ESRD: the Kidney Failure Risk Equation (KFRE, a score composed of clinical parameters and the Diabetic Nephropathy Score (D-score, a score integrated pathological parameters of the Diabetic Nephropathy Classification by the Renal Pathology Society (RPS DN Classification. They were randomized 2:1 to development and validation cohort. Hazard Ratios (HR of incident ESRD were reported with 95% confidence interval (CI of the KFRE, D-score and KFRE+D-score in Cox regression model. Improvement of risk prediction with the addition of D-score to the KFRE was assessed using c-statistics, continuous net reclassification improvement (NRI, and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI.During median follow-up of 1.9 years, 194 patients developed ESRD. The cox regression analysis showed that the KFRE,D-score and KFRE+D-score were significant predictors of ESRD both in the development cohort and in the validation cohort. The c-statistics of the D-score was 0.67. The c-statistics of the KFRE was good, but its predictive value was weaker than that in the miscellaneous CKD cohort originally reported (c-statistics, 0.78 vs. 0.90 and was not significantly improved by adding the D-score (0.78 vs. 0.79, p = 0.83. Only continuous NRI was positive after adding the D-score to the KFRE (0.4%; CI: 0.0-0.8%.We found that the predict values of the KFRE and the D-score

  4. Value of adding the renal pathological score to the kidney failure risk equation in advanced diabetic nephropathy. (United States)

    Yamanouchi, Masayuki; Hoshino, Junichi; Ubara, Yoshifumi; Takaichi, Kenmei; Kinowaki, Keiichi; Fujii, Takeshi; Ohashi, Kenichi; Mise, Koki; Toyama, Tadashi; Hara, Akinori; Kitagawa, Kiyoki; Shimizu, Miho; Furuichi, Kengo; Wada, Takashi


    There have been a limited number of biopsy-based studies on diabetic nephropathy, and therefore the clinical importance of renal biopsy in patients with diabetes in late-stage chronic kidney disease (CKD) is still debated. We aimed to clarify the renal prognostic value of pathological information to clinical information in patients with diabetes and advanced CKD. We retrospectively assessed 493 type 2 diabetics with biopsy-proven diabetic nephropathy in four centers in Japan. 296 patients with stage 3-5 CKD at the time of biopsy were identified and assigned two risk prediction scores for end-stage renal disease (ESRD): the Kidney Failure Risk Equation (KFRE, a score composed of clinical parameters) and the Diabetic Nephropathy Score (D-score, a score integrated pathological parameters of the Diabetic Nephropathy Classification by the Renal Pathology Society (RPS DN Classification)). They were randomized 2:1 to development and validation cohort. Hazard Ratios (HR) of incident ESRD were reported with 95% confidence interval (CI) of the KFRE, D-score and KFRE+D-score in Cox regression model. Improvement of risk prediction with the addition of D-score to the KFRE was assessed using c-statistics, continuous net reclassification improvement (NRI), and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI). During median follow-up of 1.9 years, 194 patients developed ESRD. The cox regression analysis showed that the KFRE,D-score and KFRE+D-score were significant predictors of ESRD both in the development cohort and in the validation cohort. The c-statistics of the D-score was 0.67. The c-statistics of the KFRE was good, but its predictive value was weaker than that in the miscellaneous CKD cohort originally reported (c-statistics, 0.78 vs. 0.90) and was not significantly improved by adding the D-score (0.78 vs. 0.79, p = 0.83). Only continuous NRI was positive after adding the D-score to the KFRE (0.4%; CI: 0.0-0.8%). We found that the predict values of the KFRE and the D-score were

  5. A Novel Risk Score in Predicting Failure or Success for Antegrade Approach to Percutaneous Coronary Intervention of Chronic Total Occlusion: Antegrade CTO Score. (United States)

    Namazi, Mohammad Hasan; Serati, Ali Reza; Vakili, Hosein; Safi, Morteza; Parsa, Saeed Ali Pour; Saadat, Habibollah; Taherkhani, Maryam; Emami, Sepideh; Pedari, Shamseddin; Vatanparast, Masoomeh; Movahed, Mohammad Reza


    Total occlusion of a coronary artery for more than 3 months is defined as chronic total occlusion (CTO). The goal of this study was to develop a risk score in predicting failure or success during attempted percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) of CTO lesions using antegrade approach. This study was based on retrospective analyses of clinical and angiographic characteristics of CTO lesions that were assessed between February 2012 and February 2014. Success rate was defined as passing through occlusion with successful stent deployment using an antegrade approach. A total of 188 patients were studied. Mean ± SD age was 59 ± 9 years. Failure rate was 33%. In a stepwise multivariate regression analysis, bridging collaterals (OR = 6.7, CI = 1.97-23.17, score = 2), absence of stump (OR = 5.8, CI = 1.95-17.9, score = 2), presence of calcification (OR = 3.21, CI = 1.46-7.07, score = 1), presence of bending (OR = 2.8, CI = 1.28-6.10, score = 1), presence of near side branch (OR = 2.7, CI = 1.08-6.57, score = 1), and absence of retrograde filling (OR = 2.5, CI = 1.03-6.17, score = 1) were independent predictors of PCI failure. A score of 7 or more was associated with 100% failure rate whereas a score of 2 or less was associated with over 80% success rate. Most factors associated with failure of CTO-PCI are related to lesion characteristics. A new risk score (range 0-8) is developed to predict CTO-PCI success or failure rate during antegrade approach as a guide before attempting PCI of CTO lesions.

  6. Decreasing harsh discipline in mothers at risk for maltreatment: a randomized control trial. (United States)

    Pereira, Mariana; Negrão, Mariana; Soares, Isabel; Mesman, Judi


    This study tested the effectiveness of the attachment-based program Video-feedback Intervention to promote Positive Parenting and Sensitive Discipline (VIPP-SD; F. Juffer, M.J. Bakermans-Kranenburg, & M.H. van IJzendoorn, 2008) in decreasing harsh discipline of 43 mothers and their 1- to 4-year-old-children from severely deprived families. Based on previous studies, parenting stress was tested as a potential moderator of intervention effects on harsh discipline. Using a randomized control design, maternal harsh discipline was observed during home visits at the pretest and posttest, and mothers filled in questionnaires at both assessments. The VIPP-SD proved to be effective in decreasing maternal harsh discipline, but only for mothers who experienced higher levels of parenting stress at intake. These findings provide support for the program's ability to improve parenting in families who are most at risk for harsh parenting and for potentially maltreating child-parent interactions. The results are discussed in terms of the VIPP-SD elements most relevant to decreasing harsh discipline, and the challenges of parenting interventions in severely deprived populations. © 2014 Michigan Association for Infant Mental Health.

  7. Polygenic risk score and heritability estimates reveals a genetic relationship between ASD and OCD. (United States)

    Guo, W; Samuels, J F; Wang, Y; Cao, H; Ritter, M; Nestadt, P S; Krasnow, J; Greenberg, B D; Fyer, A J; McCracken, J T; Geller, D A; Murphy, D L; Knowles, J A; Grados, M A; Riddle, M A; Rasmussen, S A; McLaughlin, N C; Nurmi, E L; Askland, K D; Cullen, B A; Piacentini, J; Pauls, D L; Bienvenu, O J; Stewart, S E; Goes, F S; Maher, B; Pulver, A E; Valle, D; Mattheisen, M; Qian, J; Nestadt, G; Shugart, Y Y


    Obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) and Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) are both highly heritable neurodevelopmental disorders that conceivably share genetic risk factors. However, the underlying genetic determinants remain largely unknown. In this work, the authors describe a combined genome-wide association study (GWAS) of ASD and OCD. The OCD dataset includes 2998 individuals in nuclear families. The ASD dataset includes 6898 individuals in case-parents trios. GWAS summary statistics were examined for potential enrichment of functional variants associated with gene expression levels in brain regions. The top ranked SNP is rs4785741 (chromosome 16) with P value=6.9×10 -7 in our re-analysis. Polygenic risk score analyses were conducted to investigate the genetic relationship within and across the two disorders. These analyses identified a significant polygenic component of ASD, predicting 0.11% of the phenotypic variance in an independent OCD data set. In addition, we examined the genomic architecture of ASD and OCD by estimating heritability on different chromosomes and different allele frequencies, analyzing genome-wide common variant data by using the Genome-wide Complex Trait Analysis (GCTA) program. The estimated global heritability of OCD is 0.427 (se=0.093) and 0.174 (se=0.053) for ASD in these imputed data. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  8. Association of malnutrition-inflammation score, dialysis-malnutrition score and serum albumin with novel risk factors for cardiovascular diseases in hemodialysis patients. (United States)

    As'habi, Atefeh; Tabibi, Hadi; Hedayati, Mehdi; Mahdavi-Mazdeh, Mitra; Nozary-Heshmati, Behnaz


    This study was designed to investigate the associations between malnutrition-inflammation score (MIS), dialysis-malnutrition score (DMS) and serum albumin with novel risk factors for cardiovascular diseases (CVD) in hemodialysis (HD) patients. In this cross-sectional study, 291 HD patients were randomly selected from among 2302 adult HD patients in Tehran HD centers. The MIS and DMS were determined during one of the dialysis sessions in these patients. In addition, 4 mL blood was obtained before dialysis and analyzed for serum albumin and novel risk factors for CVD, including C-reactive protein (CRP), soluble intercellular adhesion molecule type 1 (sICAM-1), soluble vascular cell adhesion molecule type 1 (sVCAM-1), sE-selectin, malondialdehyde (MDA), nitric oxide (NO), endothelin-1 and lipoprotein (a) [Lp (a)]. MIS and DMS were significantly positively correlated with serum CRP (p protein-energy wasting indicators in HD patients are associated with serum CRP and sICAM-1, as two CVD risk factors.

  9. Epidemiologic Evidence That Excess Body Weight Increases Risk of Cervical Cancer by Decreased Detection of Precancer. (United States)

    Clarke, Megan A; Fetterman, Barbara; Cheung, Li C; Wentzensen, Nicolas; Gage, Julia C; Katki, Hormuzd A; Befano, Brian; Demarco, Maria; Schussler, John; Kinney, Walter K; Raine-Bennett, Tina R; Lorey, Thomas S; Poitras, Nancy E; Castle, Philip E; Schiffman, Mark


    Purpose Obesity has been inconsistently linked to increased cervical cancer incidence and mortality; however, the effect of obesity on cervical screening has not been explored. We investigated the hypothesis that increased body mass might decrease detection of cervical precancer and increase risk of cervical cancer even in women undergoing state-of-the-art screening. Methods We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 944,227 women age 30 to 64 years who underwent cytology and human papillomavirus DNA testing (ie, cotesting) at Kaiser Permanente Northern California (January 2003 to December 2015). Body mass index was categorized as normal/underweight (< 25 kg/m 2 ), overweight (25 to < 30 kg/m 2 ), or obese (≥ 30 kg/m 2 ). We estimated 5-year cumulative risks of cervical precancer and cancer by category of body mass index using logistic Weibull survival models. Results We observed lower risk of cervical precancer (n = 4,489) and higher risk of cervical cancer (n = 490) with increasing body mass index. Specifically, obese women had the lowest 5-year risk of precancer (0.51%; 95% CI, 0.48% to 0.54% v 0.73%; 95% CI, 0.70% to 0.76% in normal/underweight women; P trend < .001). In contrast, obese women had the highest 5-year risk of cancer (0.083%; 95% CI, 0.072% to 0.096% v 0.056%; 95% CI, 0.048% to 0.066% in normal/underweight women; P trend < .001). Results were consistent in subgroups defined by age (30 to 49 v 50 to 64 years), human papillomavirus status (positive v negative), and histologic subtype (glandular v squamous). Approximately 20% of cervical cancers could be attributed to overweight or obesity in the women in our study who underwent routine cervical screening. Conclusion In this large, screened population, overweight and obese women had an increased risk of cervical cancer, likely because of underdiagnosis of cervical precancer. Improvements in equipment and/or technique to assure adequate sampling and visualization of women with elevated body mass

  10. Dietary compound score and risk of age-related macular degeneration in the Age-Related Eye Disease Study (United States)

    Purpose: Because foods provide many nutrients, which may interact with each other to modify risk for multifactorial diseases such as age-related macular degeneration (AMD), we sought to develop a composite scoring system to summarize the combined effect of multiple dietary nutrients on AMD risk. Th...

  11. Cat exposure in early life decreases asthma risk from the 17q21 high-risk variant. (United States)

    Stokholm, Jakob; Chawes, Bo L; Vissing, Nadja; Bønnelykke, Klaus; Bisgaard, Hans


    Early-life exposure to cats and dogs has shown diverging associations with childhood asthma risk, and gene-environment interaction is one possible explanation. We investigated interactions between cat and dog exposure and single nucleotide polymorphism rs7216389 variants in the chromosome 17q21 locus, the strongest known genetic risk factor for childhood asthma. Genotyping was performed in 377 children from the at-risk Copenhagen Prospective Studies on Asthma in Childhood 2000 . The primary end point was the development of asthma until age 12 years. The secondary end point was the number of episodes with pneumonia and bronchiolitis from 0 to 3 years of age. Exposures included cat and dog ownership from birth and cat and dog allergen levels in bedding at age 1 year. Replication was performed in the unselected COPSAC 2010 cohort with follow-up until 5 years of age. Cat and/or dog exposure from birth was associated with a lower prevalence of asthma among children with the rs7216389 high-risk TT genotype (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.16; 95% CI, 0.04-0.71; P = .015), with no effect in those with the CC/CT genotype (adjusted P = .283), demonstrating interaction between cat and dog exposure and the rs7216389 genotype (adjusted P = .044). Cat allergen levels were inversely associated with asthma development in children with the TT genotype (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.71-0.97; P = .022), supporting the cat-rs7216389 genotype interaction (adjusted P = .008). Dog allergen exposure did not show such interaction. Furthermore, the TT genotype was associated with higher risk of pneumonia and bronchiolitis, and this increased risk was likewise decreased in children exposed to cat. Replication showed similar effects on asthma risk. The observed gene-environment interaction suggests a role of early-life exposure, especially to cat, for attenuating the risk of childhood asthma, pneumonia, and bronchiolitis in genetically susceptible subjects. Copyright © 2017

  12. Association Between Hospital Admission Risk Profile Score and Skilled Nursing or Acute Rehabilitation Facility Discharges in Hospitalized Older Adults. (United States)

    Liu, Stephen K; Montgomery, Justin; Yan, Yu; Mecchella, John N; Bartels, Stephen J; Masutani, Rebecca; Batsis, John A


    To evaluate whether the Hospital Admission Risk Profile (HARP) score is associated with skilled nursing or acute rehabilitation facility discharge after an acute hospitalization. Retrospective cohort study. Inpatient unit of a rural academic medical center. Hospitalized individuals aged 70 and older from October 1, 2013 to June 1, 2014. Participant age at the time of admission, modified Folstein Mini-Mental State Examination score, and self-reported instrumental activities of daily living 2 weeks before admission were used to calculate HARP score. The primary predictor was HARP score, and the primary outcome was discharge disposition (home, facility, deceased). Multivariate analysis was used to evaluate the association between HARP score and discharge disposition, adjusting for age, sex, comorbidities, and length of stay. Four hundred twenty-eight individuals admitted from home were screened and their HARP scores were categorized as low (n = 162, 37.8%), intermediate (n = 157, 36.7%), or high (n = 109, 25.5%). Participants with high HARP scores were significantly more likely to be discharged to a facility (55%) than those with low HARP scores (20%) (P risk of skilled nursing or acute rehabilitation facility discharge. Early identification for potential facility discharges may allow for targeted interventions to prevent functional decline, improve informed shared decision-making about post-acute care needs, and expedite discharge planning. © 2016, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2016, The American Geriatrics Society.

  13. A risk score for predicting 30-day mortality in heart failure patients undergoing non-cardiac surgery

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersson, Charlotte; Gislason, Gunnar H; Hlatky, Mark A


    BACKGROUND: Heart failure is an established risk factor for poor outcomes in patients undergoing non-cardiac surgery, yet risk stratification remains a clinical challenge. We developed an index for 30-day mortality risk prediction in this particular group. METHODS AND RESULTS: All individuals...... with heart failure undergoing non-cardiac surgery between October 23 2004 and October 31 2011 were included from Danish administrative registers (n = 16 827). In total, 1787 (10.6%) died within 30 days. In a simple risk score based on the variables from the revised cardiac risk index, plus age, gender, acute...... by bootstrapping (1000 re-samples) provided c-statistic of 0.79. A more complex risk score based on stepwise logistic regression including 24 variables at P heart failure, this simple...

  14. A Healthy Lifestyle Score Is Associated with Cardiometabolic and Neuroendocrine Risk Factors among Puerto Rican Adults. (United States)

    Sotos-Prieto, Mercedes; Bhupathiraju, Shilpa N; Falcón, Luis M; Gao, Xiang; Tucker, Katherine L; Mattei, Josiemer


    Although individual healthy lifestyle behaviors may reduce cardiovascular disease risk, few studies have analyzed the combined effect of multiple lifestyle components as one all-inclusive measure on such outcomes, much less in minority populations. We aimed to develop a Healthy Lifestyle Score (HLS) that included several lifestyle recommendations and to test its association with metabolic syndrome (MetS) and allostatic load (AL) and their cardiometabolic and neuroendocrine factors in Puerto Ricans. In a cross-sectional study in 787 Puerto Ricans living in Boston (aged 45-75 y), we developed an HLS that ranged from 0 to 190 (higher score indicative of healthier lifestyle) and included 5 components (diet, physical activity and sedentary behaviors, smoking, social support and network, and sleep). Multivariable-adjusted models were used to test associations between the HLS and biomarkers of dysregulation and odds of MetS and high AL (≥4 out of 10 components). The HLS showed adequate internal consistency (ρ = 0.31-0.69) and was inversely associated with urinary cortisol (β ± SE = -0.22 ± 0.11; P = 0.042), epinephrine (-0.20 ± 0.09; P = 0.017), and norepinephrine (-0.26 ± 0.11; P = 0.016); waist circumference (-0.014 ± 0.004; P = 0.003); and serum insulin (-0.30 ± 0.13; P = 0.028) and positively associated with plasma HDL cholesterol (0.007 ± 0.003; P = 0.021) after adjustment for potential confounders. For each 20-unit increase in HLS, participants had 19% (95% CI: 2%, 33%) and 25% (11%, 36%) lower odds of MetS or AL, respectively. Healthier scores for social support and network and smoking components were associated with lower odds of high AL (P lifestyle components. Following an overall healthy lifestyle that comprises a combination of multiple behaviors may provide stronger protection against MetS and AL in Puerto Rican adults than individual components. The HLS may be a useful tool for examining health-related outcomes. This trial was registered at

  15. Prediction of Outcome After Emergency High-Risk Intra-abdominal Surgery Using the Surgical Apgar Score

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cihoric, Mirjana; Toft Tengberg, Line; Bay-Nielsen, Morten


    BACKGROUND: With current literature quoting mortality rates up to 45%, emergency high-risk abdominal surgery has, compared with elective surgery, a significantly greater risk of death and major complications. The Surgical Apgar Score (SAS) is predictive of outcome in elective surgery, but has nev...... emergency high-risk abdominal surgery. Despite its predictive value, the SAS cannot in its current version be recommended as a standalone prognostic tool in an emergency setting....

  16. Use of ABCD2 risk scoring system to determine the short-term stroke risk in patients presenting to emergency department with transient ischaemic attack

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ozpolat, C.; Denizbasi, A.; Onur, O.; Eroglu, S.E.


    Objective: To determine the 3-day stroke risk of patients presenting to emergency department with transient ischaemic attack, and to evaluate the predictive value of ABCD2 (Age, Blood pressure, Clinical features, Duration of symptoms and Diabetes) score for these patients. Methods: The prospective study was conducted on patients with diagnosis of transient ischaemic attack who were divided into low (0-3 points), medium (4-5 points) and high (6-7 points) risk groups according to their ABCD2 scores. The sensitivity of the scoring system on estimation of the risk of stroke in 3 days was evaluated through receiver operating characteristic curve. SPSS 15 was used for data analysis. Results: Of the 64 patients in the study, none of the low-risk group had stroke. Stroke was present in 4 of 33 (12.12%) medium-risk patients, while there were 4 in 18 (22.22%) in the high-risk group. Sensitivity and specificity of each ABCD2 score for 3rd day stroke risk was calculated. In the receiver operating curve generated by these calculations, the c statistics was determined as 0.76 (95% CI: 0.64, 0.86; p<0.01) and the most appropriate cut-off score to dichotomise the study group was determined as 4. Conclusions: In transient ischaemic attack patients with an ABCD2 score of four or higher had a markedly increased short-term stroke risk, while those with a lower score were quite safe. It is appropriate to hospitalise patients with a score of four or more and investigate for underlying cause and initiate treatment. (author)

  17. Development of Risk Score for Predicting 3-Year Incidence of Type 2 Diabetes: Japan Epidemiology Collaboration on Occupational Health Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akiko Nanri

    Full Text Available Risk models and scores have been developed to predict incidence of type 2 diabetes in Western populations, but their performance may differ when applied to non-Western populations. We developed and validated a risk score for predicting 3-year incidence of type 2 diabetes in a Japanese population.Participants were 37,416 men and women, aged 30 or older, who received periodic health checkup in 2008-2009 in eight companies. Diabetes was defined as fasting plasma glucose (FPG ≥ 126 mg/dl, random plasma glucose ≥ 200 mg/dl, glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c ≥ 6.5%, or receiving medical treatment for diabetes. Risk scores on non-invasive and invasive models including FPG and HbA1c were developed using logistic regression in a derivation cohort and validated in the remaining cohort.The area under the curve (AUC for the non-invasive model including age, sex, body mass index, waist circumference, hypertension, and smoking status was 0.717 (95% CI, 0.703-0.731. In the invasive model in which both FPG and HbA1c were added to the non-invasive model, AUC was increased to 0.893 (95% CI, 0.883-0.902. When the risk scores were applied to the validation cohort, AUCs (95% CI for the non-invasive and invasive model were 0.734 (0.715-0.753 and 0.882 (0.868-0.895, respectively. Participants with a non-invasive score of ≥ 15 and invasive score of ≥ 19 were projected to have >20% and >50% risk, respectively, of developing type 2 diabetes within 3 years.The simple risk score of the non-invasive model might be useful for predicting incident type 2 diabetes, and its predictive performance may be markedly improved by incorporating FPG and HbA1c.

  18. Decrease Risk of Pb Contamination in Soil-tobacco Systemby Amendments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    LI Xi-xi


    Full Text Available Pot experiment using tobacco field soil was conducted to study the effect of four types amendments of lime, humic acid, sodium sulfide and organic manure on the content of Pb in tobacco and available Pb in soil. The results showed that the content of Pb in tobacco leaves treated with different amendments was proportional to the activity of Pb in the soil, and that the activity of Pb in the soil was obviously inhibited, thus significantly reduced the Pb accumulation in tobacco leaves, and the decrement rate ranged from 23.16% to 59.71%, with treatments and comparisons reaching significant difference. Based on the decrease effect of Pb in soil-tobacco system and the economic ben-efits of tobacco production, it was concluded that 2.25 t·hm-2 of lime, 2.25 t·hm-2 of humic acid or 22.5 t·hm-2 of organic manure could effec-tively decrease the Pb risk in soil-tobacco system by factor sequence generation method.

  19. A point-based prediction model for cardiovascular risk in orthotopic liver transplantation: The CAR-OLT score. (United States)

    VanWagner, Lisa B; Ning, Hongyan; Whitsett, Maureen; Levitsky, Josh; Uttal, Sarah; Wilkins, John T; Abecassis, Michael M; Ladner, Daniela P; Skaro, Anton I; Lloyd-Jones, Donald M


    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) complications are important causes of morbidity and mortality after orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT). There is currently no preoperative risk-assessment tool that allows physicians to estimate the risk for CVD events following OLT. We sought to develop a point-based prediction model (risk score) for CVD complications after OLT, the Cardiovascular Risk in Orthotopic Liver Transplantation risk score, among a cohort of 1,024 consecutive patients aged 18-75 years who underwent first OLT in a tertiary-care teaching hospital (2002-2011). The main outcome measures were major 1-year CVD complications, defined as death from a CVD cause or hospitalization for a major CVD event (myocardial infarction, revascularization, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, cardiac arrest, pulmonary embolism, and/or stroke). The bootstrap method yielded bias-corrected 95% confidence intervals for the regression coefficients of the final model. Among 1,024 first OLT recipients, major CVD complications occurred in 329 (32.1%). Variables selected for inclusion in the model (using model optimization strategies) included preoperative recipient age, sex, race, employment status, education status, history of hepatocellular carcinoma, diabetes, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, pulmonary or systemic hypertension, and respiratory failure. The discriminative performance of the point-based score (C statistic = 0.78, bias-corrected C statistic = 0.77) was superior to other published risk models for postoperative CVD morbidity and mortality, and it had appropriate calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow P = 0.33). The point-based risk score can identify patients at risk for CVD complications after OLT surgery (available at; this score may be useful for identification of candidates for further risk stratification or other management strategies to improve CVD outcomes after OLT. (Hepatology 2017;66:1968-1979). © 2017 by the American Association for the Study of Liver

  20. Polygenic Scores for Major Depressive Disorder and Risk of Alcohol Dependence. (United States)

    Andersen, Allan M; Pietrzak, Robert H; Kranzler, Henry R; Ma, Li; Zhou, Hang; Liu, Xiaoming; Kramer, John; Kuperman, Samuel; Edenberg, Howard J; Nurnberger, John I; Rice, John P; Tischfield, Jay A; Goate, Alison; Foroud, Tatiana M; Meyers, Jacquelyn L; Porjesz, Bernice; Dick, Danielle M; Hesselbrock, Victor; Boerwinkle, Eric; Southwick, Steven M; Krystal, John H; Weissman, Myrna M; Levinson, Douglas F; Potash, James B; Gelernter, Joel; Han, Shizhong


    Major depressive disorder (MDD) and alcohol dependence (AD) are heritable disorders with significant public health burdens, and they are frequently comorbid. Common genetic factors that influence the co-occurrence of MDD and AD have been sought in family, twin, and adoption studies, and results to date have been promising but inconclusive. To examine whether AD and MDD overlap genetically, using a polygenic score approach. Association analyses were conducted between MDD polygenic risk score (PRS) and AD case-control status in European ancestry samples from 4 independent genome-wide association study (GWAS) data sets: the Collaborative Study on the Genetics of Alcoholism (COGA); the Study of Addiction, Genetics, and Environment (SAGE); the Yale-Penn genetic study of substance dependence; and the National Health and Resilience in Veterans Study (NHRVS). Results from a meta-analysis of MDD (9240 patients with MDD and 9519 controls) from the Psychiatric Genomics Consortium were applied to calculate PRS at thresholds from P men; mean [SD] age, 38.2 [10.8] years) and 522 controls (151 [28.9.%] men; age [SD], 43.9 [11.6] years) from COGA; 631 cases (333 [52.8%] men; age [SD], 35.0 [7.7] years) and 756 controls (260 [34.4%] male; age [SD] 36.1 [7.7] years) from SAGE; 2135 cases (1375 [64.4%] men; age [SD], 39.4 [11.5] years) and 350 controls (126 [36.0%] men; age [SD], 43.5 [13.9] years) from Yale-Penn; and 317 cases (295 [93.1%] men; age [SD], 59.1 [13.1] years) and 1719 controls (1545 [89.9%] men; age [SD], 64.5 [13.3] years) from NHRVS. Higher MDD PRS was associated with a significantly increased risk of AD in all samples (COGA: best P = 1.7 × 10-6, R2 = 0.026; SAGE: best P = .001, R2 = 0.01; Yale-Penn: best P = .035, R2 = 0.0018; and NHRVS: best P = .004, R2 = 0.0074), with stronger evidence for association after meta-analysis of the 4 samples (best P = 3.3 × 10-9). In analyses adjusted for MDD status in 3 AD GWAS data

  1. Risk of falling among hospitalized patients with high modified Morse scores could be further Stratified

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irina Gringauz


    Full Text Available Abstract Background Falls during hospitalization harbor both clinical and financial outcomes. The modified Morse fall scale [MMFS] is widely used for an in-hospital risk-of-fall assessment. Nevertheless, the majority of patients at risk of falling, i.e. with high MMFS, do not fall. The aim of this study was to ascertain our study hypothesis that certain patients' characteristics (e.g. serum electrolytes, usage of a walking device etc. could further stratify the risk of falls among hospitalized patients with MMFS. Methods This was a retrospective cohort analysis of adult patients hospitalized in Internal Medicine departments. Results The final cohort included 428 patients aged 76.8±14.0 years. All patients had high (9 or more MMFS upon admission, and their mean MMFS was 16.2±6.1. A group of 139 (32.5% patients who fell during their hospitalization was compared with a control group of 289 (67.5% patients who did not fall. The fallers had higher MMFS, a higher prevalence of mild dependence, and a greater use of a cane or no walking device. Regression analysis showed the following patients' characteristics to be independently associated with an increased risk of falling: mild dependence (OR=3.99, 95% CI 1.97-8.08; p<0.0001, treatment by anti-epileptics (OR=3.9, 95% CI 1.36-11.18; p=0.011, treatment by hypoglycemic agents (OR=2.64, 95% CI 1.08-6.45; p= 0.033, and hypothyroidism (OR=3.66, 05%CI 1.62-8.30; p=0.002. In contrast to their role in the MMFS, the use of a walker or a wheelchair was found to decrease the risk of falling (OR=0.3, 95% CI 0.13-0.69; p=0.005 and OR=0.25, 95% CI 0.11-0.59; p= 0.002. Conclusions Further risk stratification of hospitalized patients, already known to have a high MMFS, which would take into account the characteristics pointed out in this study, should be attained.

  2. The Usefulness of the MEESSI Score for Risk Stratification of Patients With Acute Heart Failure at the Emergency Department. (United States)

    Miró, Òscar; Rosselló, Xavier; Gil, Víctor; Martín-Sánchez, Francisco Javier; Llorens, Pere; Herrero, Pablo; Jacob, Javier; López-Grima, María Luisa; Gil, Cristina; Lucas Imbernón, Francisco Javier; Garrido, José Manuel; Pérez-Durá, María José; López-Díez, María Pilar; Richard, Fernando; Bueno, Héctor; Pocock, Stuart J


    The MEESSI scale stratifies acute heart failure (AHF) patients at the emergency department (ED) according to the 30-day mortality risk. We validated the MEESSI risk score in a new cohort of Spanish patients to assess its accuracy in stratifying patients by risk and to compare its performance in different settings. We included consecutive patients diagnosed with AHF in 30 EDs during January and February 2016. The MEESSI score was calculated for each patient. The c-statistic measured the discriminatory capacity to predict 30-day mortality of the full MEESSI model and secondary models. Further comparisons were made among subgroups of patients from university and community hospitals, EDs with high-, medium- or low-activity and EDs that recruited or not patients in the original MEESSI derivation cohort. We analyzed 4711 patients (university/community hospitals: 3811/900; high-/medium-/low-activity EDs: 2695/1479/537; EDs participating/not participating in the previous MEESSI derivation study: 3892/819). The distribution of patients according to the MEESSI risk categories was: 1673 (35.5%) low risk, 2023 (42.9%) intermediate risk, 530 (11.3%) high risk and 485 (10.3%) very high risk, with 30-day mortality of 2.0%, 7.8%, 17.9%, and 41.4%, respectively. The c-statistic for the full model was 0.810 (95%CI, 0.790-0.830), ranging from 0.731 to 0.785 for the subsequent secondary models. The discriminatory capacity of the MEESSI risk score was similar among subgroups of hospital type, ED activity, and original recruiter EDs. The MEESSI risk score successfully stratifies AHF patients at the ED according to the 30-day mortality risk, potentially helping clinicians in the decision-making process for hospitalizing patients. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U.

  3. The New York Sepsis Severity Score: Development of a Risk-Adjusted Severity Model for Sepsis. (United States)

    Phillips, Gary S; Osborn, Tiffany M; Terry, Kathleen M; Gesten, Foster; Levy, Mitchell M; Lemeshow, Stanley


    In accordance with Rory's Regulations, hospitals across New York State developed and implemented protocols for sepsis recognition and treatment to reduce variations in evidence informed care and preventable mortality. The New York Department of Health sought to develop a risk assessment model for accurate and standardized hospital mortality comparisons of adult septic patients across institutions using case-mix adjustment. Retrospective evaluation of prospectively collected data. Data from 43,204 severe sepsis and septic shock patients from 179 hospitals across New York State were evaluated. Prospective data were submitted to a database from January 1, 2015, to December 31, 2015. None. Maximum likelihood logistic regression was used to estimate model coefficients used in the New York State risk model. The mortality probability was estimated using a logistic regression model. Variables to be included in the model were determined as part of the model-building process. Interactions between variables were included if they made clinical sense and if their p values were less than 0.05. Model development used a random sample of 90% of available patients and was validated using the remaining 10%. Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit p values were considerably greater than 0.05, suggesting good calibration. Areas under the receiver operator curve in the developmental and validation subsets were 0.770 (95% CI, 0.765-0.775) and 0.773 (95% CI, 0.758-0.787), respectively, indicating good discrimination. Development and validation datasets had similar distributions of estimated mortality probabilities. Mortality increased with rising age, comorbidities, and lactate. The New York Sepsis Severity Score accurately estimated the probability of hospital mortality in severe sepsis and septic shock patients. It performed well with respect to calibration and discrimination. This sepsis-specific model provides an accurate, comprehensive method for standardized mortality comparison of adult

  4. Cardiorespiratory fitness alters the influence of a polygenic risk score on biomarkers of AD. (United States)

    Schultz, Stephanie A; Boots, Elizabeth A; Darst, Burcu F; Zetterberg, Henrik; Blennow, Kaj; Edwards, Dorothy F; Koscik, Rebecca L; Carlsson, Cynthia M; Gallagher, Catherine L; Bendlin, Barbara B; Asthana, Sanjay; Sager, Mark A; Hogan, Kirk J; Hermann, Bruce P; Cook, Dane B; Johnson, Sterling C; Engelman, Corinne D; Okonkwo, Ozioma C


    To examine whether a polygenic risk score (PRS) derived from APOE4, CLU, and ABCA7 is associated with CSF biomarkers of Alzheimer disease (AD) pathology and whether higher cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) modifies the association between the PRS and CSF biomarkers. Ninety-five individuals from the Wisconsin Registry for Alzheimer's Prevention were included in these cross-sectional analyses. They were genotyped for APOE4 , CLU , and ABCA7 , from which a PRS was calculated for each participant. The participants underwent lumbar puncture for CSF collection. β-Amyloid 42 (Aβ 42 ), Aβ 40 , total tau (t-tau), and phosphorylated tau (p-tau) were quantified by immunoassays, and Aβ 42 /Aβ 40 and tau/Aβ 42 ratios were computed. CRF was estimated from a validated equation incorporating sex, age, body mass index, resting heart rate, and self-reported physical activity. Covariate-adjusted regression analyses were used to test for associations between the PRS and CSF biomarkers. In addition, by including a PRS×CRF term in the models, we examined whether these associations were modified by CRF. A higher PRS was associated with lower Aβ 42 /Aβ 40 ( p interactions for Aβ 42 /Aβ 40 ( p = 0.003), t-tau/Aβ 42 ( p = 0.003), and p-tau/Aβ 42 ( p = 0.001). Specifically, the association between the PRS and these CSF biomarkers was diminished in those with higher CRF. In a late-middle-aged cohort, CRF attenuates the adverse influence of genetic vulnerability on CSF biomarkers. These findings support the notion that increased cardiorespiratory fitness may be beneficial to those at increased genetic risk for AD. © 2017 American Academy of Neurology.

  5. Simple Scoring System and Artificial Neural Network for Knee Osteoarthritis Risk Prediction: A Cross-Sectional Study (United States)

    Yoo, Tae Keun; Kim, Deok Won; Choi, Soo Beom; Oh, Ein; Park, Jee Soo


    Background Knee osteoarthritis (OA) is the most common joint disease of adults worldwide. Since the treatments for advanced radiographic knee OA are limited, clinicians face a significant challenge of identifying patients who are at high risk of OA in a timely and appropriate way. Therefore, we developed a simple self-assessment scoring system and an improved artificial neural network (ANN) model for knee OA. Methods The Fifth Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (KNHANES V-1) data were used to develop a scoring system and ANN for radiographic knee OA. A logistic regression analysis was used to determine the predictors of the scoring system. The ANN was constructed using 1777 participants and validated internally on 888 participants in the KNHANES V-1. The predictors of the scoring system were selected as the inputs of the ANN. External validation was performed using 4731 participants in the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI). Area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic was calculated to compare the prediction models. Results The scoring system and ANN were built using the independent predictors including sex, age, body mass index, educational status, hypertension, moderate physical activity, and knee pain. In the internal validation, both scoring system and ANN predicted radiographic knee OA (AUC 0.73 versus 0.81, p<0.001) and symptomatic knee OA (AUC 0.88 versus 0.94, p<0.001) with good discriminative ability. In the external validation, both scoring system and ANN showed lower discriminative ability in predicting radiographic knee OA (AUC 0.62 versus 0.67, p<0.001) and symptomatic knee OA (AUC 0.70 versus 0.76, p<0.001). Conclusions The self-assessment scoring system may be useful for identifying the adults at high risk for knee OA. The performance of the scoring system is improved significantly by the ANN. We provided an ANN calculator to simply predict the knee OA risk. PMID:26859664

  6. Association of Vagotomy and Decreased Risk of Subsequent Ischemic Stroke in Complicated Peptic Ulcer Patients: an Asian Population Study. (United States)

    Fang, Chu-Wen; Tseng, Chun-Hung; Wu, Shih-Chi; Chen, William Tzu-Liang; Muo, Chih-Hsin


    The primary management of peptic ulcers is medical treatment. Persistent exacerbation of a peptic ulcer may lead to complications (perforation and/or bleeding). There has been a trend toward the use of a less invasive surgical simple suture, simple local suture or non-operative (endoscopic/angiography) hemostasis rather than acid-reducing vagotomy (i.e., vagus nerve severance) for treating complicated peptic ulcers. Other studies have shown the relationship between high vagus nerve activity and survival in cancer patients via reduced levels of inflammation, indicating the essential role of the vagus nerve. We were interested in the role of the vagus nerve and attempted to assess the long-term systemic effects after vagus nerve severance. Complicated peptic ulcer patients who underwent truncal vagotomy may represent an appropriate study population for investigating the association between vagus nerve severance and long-term effects. Therefore, we assessed the risks of subsequent ischemic stroke using different treatment methods in complicated peptic ulcer patients who underwent simple suture/hemostasis or truncal vagotomy/pyloroplasty. We selected 299,742 peptic ulcer patients without a history of stroke and Helicobacter pylori infection and an additional 299,742 matched controls without ulcer, stroke, and Helicobacter pylori infection from the National Health Insurance database. The controls were frequency matched for age, gender, Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) score, hypertension, hyperlipidemia history, and index year. Then, we measured the incidence of overall ischemic stroke in the two cohorts. The hazard ratio (HR) and the 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated by Cox proportional hazard regression. Compared to the controls, peptic ulcer patients had a 1.86-fold higher risk of ischemic stroke. There were similar results in gender, age, CCI, hypertension, and hyperlipidemia stratified analyses. In complicated peptic ulcer patients, those who received

  7. Modified Mediterranean Diet Score and Cardiovascular Risk in a North American Working Population (United States)

    Yang, Justin; Farioli, Andrea; Korre, Maria; Kales, Stefanos N.


    Introduction Greater adherence to a Mediterranean diet is linked to lower risk for cardiovascular morbidity/mortality in studies of Mediterranean cohorts, older subjects, and/or those with existing health conditions. No studies have examined the effects of this dietary pattern in younger working populations in the United States. We investigated the effects of Mediterranean diet adherence on cardiovascular disease (CVD) biomarkers, metabolic syndrome and body composition in an occupationally active, non-Mediterranean cohort. Methods A cross-sectional study in a cohort of 780 career male firefighters, ages 18 years or older, from the United States Midwest. No dietary intervention was performed. A modified Mediterranean diet score (mMDS) was developed for assessment of adherence to a Mediterranean dietary pattern from a previously administered life-style questionnaire that examined pre-existing dietary habits. Clinical data from fire department medical examinations were extracted and analyzed. Results Obese subjects had significantly lower mMDS, and they reported greater fast/take-out food consumption (pMediterranean-style dietary pattern had significant inverse associations with metabolic syndrome, LDL-cholesterol and reported weight gain, and was significantly and independently associated with higher HDL-cholesterol. Our results support the potential effectiveness of this diet in young, non-Mediterranean working cohorts, and justify future intervention studies. PMID:24503596

  8. Explicit Modeling of Ancestry Improves Polygenic Risk Scores and BLUP Prediction. (United States)

    Chen, Chia-Yen; Han, Jiali; Hunter, David J; Kraft, Peter; Price, Alkes L


    Polygenic prediction using genome-wide SNPs can provide high prediction accuracy for complex traits. Here, we investigate the question of how to account for genetic ancestry when conducting polygenic prediction. We show that the accuracy of polygenic prediction in structured populations may be partly due to genetic ancestry. However, we hypothesized that explicitly modeling ancestry could improve polygenic prediction accuracy. We analyzed three GWAS of hair color (HC), tanning ability (TA), and basal cell carcinoma (BCC) in European Americans (sample size from 7,440 to 9,822) and considered two widely used polygenic prediction approaches: polygenic risk scores (PRSs) and best linear unbiased prediction (BLUP). We compared polygenic prediction without correction for ancestry to polygenic prediction with ancestry as a separate component in the model. In 10-fold cross-validation using the PRS approach, the R(2) for HC increased by 66% (0.0456-0.0755; P ancestry, which prevents ancestry effects from entering into each SNP effect and being overweighted. Surprisingly, explicitly modeling ancestry produces a similar improvement when using the BLUP approach, which fits all SNPs simultaneously in a single variance component and causes ancestry to be underweighted. We validate our findings via simulations, which show that the differences in prediction accuracy will increase in magnitude as sample sizes increase. In summary, our results show that explicitly modeling ancestry can be important in both PRS and BLUP prediction. © 2015 WILEY PERIODICALS, INC.

  9. The emerging molecular architecture of schizophrenia, polygenic risk scores and the clinical implications for GxE research. (United States)

    Iyegbe, Conrad; Campbell, Desmond; Butler, Amy; Ajnakina, Olesya; Sham, Pak


    Schizophrenia is a devastating mental disorder. The level of risk in the general population is sustained by the persistence of social, environmental and biological factors, as well as their interactions. Socio-environmental risk factors for schizophrenia are well established and robust. The same can belatedly be said of genetic risk factors for the disorder. Recent progress in schizophrenia genetics is primarily fuelled by genome-wide association, which is able to leverage substantial proportions of additional explained variance previously classified as 'missing'. Here, we provide an outline of the emerging genetic landscape of schizophrenia and demonstrate how this knowledge can be turned into a simple empirical measure of genetic risk, known as a polygenic risk score. We highlight the statistical framework used to assess the clinical potential of the new score and finally, draw relevance to and discuss the clinical implications for the study of gene-environment interaction.

  10. Systemic risk score evaluation in ischemic stroke patients (SCALA): a prospective cross sectional study in 85 German stroke units. (United States)

    Weimar, Christian; Goertler, Michael; Röther, Joachim; Ringelstein, E Bernd; Darius, Harald; Nabavi, Darius Günther; Kim, In-Ha; Theobald, Karlheinz; Diener, Han-Christoph


    Stratification of patients with transient ischemic attack (TIA) or ischemic stroke (IS) by risk of recurrent stroke can contribute to optimized secondary prevention. We therefore aimed to assess cardiovascular risk factor profiles of consecutive patients hospitalized with TIA/IS to stratify the risk of recurrent stroke according to the Essen Stroke Risk Score (ESRS) and of future cardiovascular events according to the ankle brachial index (ABI) as a marker of generalized atherosclerosis In this cross-sectional observational study, 85 neurological stroke units throughout Germany documented cardiovascular risk factor profiles of 10 consecutive TIA/IS patients on standardized questionnaires. Screening for PAD was done with Doppler ultrasonography to calculate the ABI. A total of 852 patients (57% men) with a mean age of 67+/-12.4 years were included of whom 82.9 % had IS. The median National Institutes of Health stroke sum score was 4 (TIA: 1). Arterial hypertension was reported in 71%, diabetes mellitus in 26%, clinical PAD in 10%, and an ABI or = 3 was observed in 58%, which in two previous retrospective analyses corresponded to a recurrent stroke risk of > or = 4%/year. The correlation between the ESRS and the ABI was low (r = 0.21). A high proportion of patients had asymptomatic atherosclerotic disease and a considerable risk of recurrent stroke according to the ABI and ESRS category. The prognostic accuracy as well as the potential benefit of various risk stratification scores in secondary stroke prevention require validation in a larger prospective study.

  11. Development of a risk score for geographic atrophy in complications of the age-related macular degeneration prevention trial. (United States)

    Ying, Gui-Shuang; Maguire, Maureen G


    To develop a risk score for developing geographic atrophy (GA) involving easily obtainable information among patients with bilateral large drusen. Cohort study within a multicenter randomized clinical trial. We included 1052 participants with ≥ 10 large (>125 μm) drusen and visual acuity ≥ 20/40 in each eye. In the Complications of Age-related Macular Degeneration (AMD) Prevention Trial (CAPT), 1 eye of each participant was randomly assigned to laser treatment and the contralateral eye was assigned to observation to evaluate whether laser treatment of drusen could prevent vision loss. Gradings by a reading center were used to identify: CAPT end point GA (total area of GA [>250 μm] > 1 disc area), GA (>175 μm) involving the foveal center (CGA), and GA of any size and location (any GA). Established risk factors (age, smoking status, hypertension, Age-related Eye Disease Study simple severity scale score), both with and without a novel risk factor (night vision score), were used in assigning risk points. The risk scores were evaluated for the ability to discriminate and calibrate GA risk. Development of end point GA, CGA, and any GA. Among 942 CAPT participants who completed 5 years of follow-up and did not have any GA at baseline, 6.8% participants developed CAPT end point GA, 9.6% developed CGA, and 34.4% developed any GA. The 5-year incidence of end point GA in 1 or both eyes of a participant increased with the 15-point GA risk score, from 0.6% for prevention of GA and for clinical assessment of GA risk in early AMD patients. Copyright © 2011 American Academy of Ophthalmology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Risk stratification by the Appendicitis Inflammatory Response score to guide decision-making in patients with suspected appendicitis. (United States)

    Scott, A J; Mason, S E; Arunakirinathan, M; Reissis, Y; Kinross, J M; Smith, J J


    Current management of suspected appendicitis is hampered by the overadmission of patients with non-specific abdominal pain and a significant negative exploration rate. The potential benefits of risk stratification by the Appendicitis Inflammatory Response (AIR) score to guide clinical decision-making were assessed. During this 50-week prospective observational study at one institution, the AIR score was calculated for all patients admitted with suspected appendicitis. Appendicitis was diagnosed by histological examination, and patients were classified as having non-appendicitis pain if histological findings were negative or surgery was not performed. The diagnostic performance of the AIR score and the potential for risk stratification to reduce admissions, optimize imaging and prevent unnecessary explorations were quantified. A total of 464 patients were included, of whom 210 (63·3 per cent) with non-appendicitis pain were correctly classified as low risk. However, 13 low-risk patients had appendicitis. Low-risk patients accounted for 48·1 per cent of admissions (223 of 464), 57 per cent of negative explorations (48 of 84) and 50·7 per cent of imaging requests (149 of 294). An AIR score of 5 or more (intermediate and high risk) had high sensitivity for all severities of appendicitis (90 per cent) and also for advanced appendicitis (98 per cent). An AIR score of 9 or more (high risk) was very specific (97 per cent) for appendicitis, and the majority of patients with appendicitis in the high-risk group (21 of 30, 70 per cent) had perforation or gangrene. Ultrasound imaging could not exclude appendicitis in low-risk patients (negative likelihood ratio (LR) 1·0) but could rule-in the diagnosis in intermediate-risk patients (positive LR 10·2). CT could exclude appendicitis in low-risk patients (negative LR 0·0) and rule-in appendicitis in the intermediate group (positive LR 10·9). Risk stratification of patients with suspected appendicitis by the AIR score could

  13. A competing risk approach for the European Heart SCORE model based on cause-specific and all-cause mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Støvring, Henrik; Harmsen, Charlotte G; Wisløff, Torbjørn


    for older individuals. When non-CVD mortality was assumed unaffected by smoking status, the absolute risk reduction due to statin treatment ranged from 0.0% to 3.5%, whereas the gain in expected residual lifetime ranged from 3 to 11 months. Statin effectiveness increased for non-smokers and declined...... pressure, and total cholesterol level. The SCORE model, however, is not mathematically consistent and does not estimate all-cause mortality. Our aim is to modify the SCORE model to allow consistent estimation of both CVD-specific and all-cause mortality. Methods: Using a competing risk approach, we first...

  14. Validation of risk assessment scoring systems for an audit of elective surgery for gastrointestinal cancer in elderly patients: an audit. (United States)

    Wakabayashi, Hisao; Sano, Takanori; Yachida, Shinichi; Okano, Keiichi; Izuishi, Kunihiko; Suzuki, Yasuyuki


    The goal of this study was to validate the usefulness of risk assessment scoring systems for a surgical audit in elective digestive surgery for elderly patients. The validated scoring systems used were the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) and the Portsmouth predictor equation for mortality (P-POSSUM). This study involved 153 consecutive patients aged 75 years and older who underwent elective gastric or colorectal surgery between July 2004 and June 2006. A retrospective analysis was performed on data collected prior to each surgery. The predicted mortality and morbidity risks were calculated using each of the scoring systems and were used to obtain the observed/predicted (O/E) mortality and morbidity ratios. New logistic regression equations for morbidity and mortality were then calculated using the scores from the POSSUM system and applied retrospectively. The O/E ratio for morbidity obtained from POSSUM score was 0.23. The O/E ratios for mortality from the POSSUM score and the P-POSSUM were 0.15 and 0.38, respectively. Utilizing the new equations using scores from the POSSUM, the O/E ratio increased to 0.88. Both the POSSUM and P-POSSUM over-predicted the morbidity and mortality in elective gastrointestinal surgery for malignant tumors in elderly patients. However, if a surgical unit makes appropriate calculations using its own patient series and updates these equations, the POSSUM system can be useful in the risk assessment for surgery in elderly patients.

  15. Physical activity, the Framingham risk score and risk of coronary heart disease in men and women of the EPIC-Norfolk study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Arsenault, Benoit J.; Rana, Jamal S.; Lemieux, Isabelle; Després, Jean-Pierre; Wareham, Nicholas J.; Kastelein, John J. P.; Boekholdt, S. Matthijs; Khaw, Kay-Tee


    Objective: Test the hypothesis that considering leisure-time and work-related physical activity habits in addition to the Framingham risk score (FRS) would result into better classification of coronary heart disease (CHD) risk than FRS alone. Methods: Prospective, population-based study of 9564 men

  16. Risk score for identifying adults with CSF pleocytosis and negative CSF Gram stain at low risk for an urgent treatable cause

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hasbun, Rodrigo; Bijlsma, Merijn; Brouwer, Matthijs C.; Khoury, Nabil; Hadi, Christiane M.; van der Ende, Arie; Wootton, Susan H.; Salazar, Lucrecia; Hossain, Md Monir; Beilke, Mark; van de Beek, Diederik


    We aimed to derive and validate a risk score that identifies adults with cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) pleocytosis and a negative CSF Gram stain at low risk for an urgent treatable cause. Patients with CSF pleocytosis and a negative CSF Gram stain were stratified into a prospective derivation (n = 193)

  17. Traditional Chinese medicine therapy decreases the pneumonia risk in patients with dementia (United States)

    Lin, Shun-Ku; Tsai, Yueh-Ting; Lo, Pei-Chia; Lai, Jung-Nien


    Abstract Pneumonia is a frequent complication in dementia patients and is associated with high mortality rates. The aim of this retrospective cohort study was to determine whether traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) therapy can decrease pneumonia risk in dementia patients. The cohort dataset was obtained from the Longitudinal Health Insurance Database 2005, a sublibrary of the National Health Insurance Research Database, containing all medical data of 1 million beneficiaries, randomly selected from the all Insurers in year 2005. Newly diagnosed dementia patients (n = 9712) without pneumonia were analyzed from January 1997 to December 2003. After matching by sex, age, urban level, Charlson comorbidity index, insured amount, and comorbidities, 1376 pairs (1:1) of TCM and non-TCM users were acquired. Every dementia patient was individually recorded from 1997 to 2012 to identify pneumonia incidence (onset after 3 months of dementia diagnosis). Demographic characteristics, Charlson comorbidity index, comorbidities, behavioral and psychological symptoms of dementia, and psychotropic drugs were also investigated. Cox proportional regression was used to compute hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) after adjustment for the above-mentioned variables. There were 419 (30.5%) and 762 (55.4%) pneumonia cases in the TCM and non-TCM cohorts during a mean follow-up period of 7.6 years. The adjusted hazard ratios (95% CI) for pneumonia admission was 0.62 (0.55–0.70) for the TCM group. Patients who received TCM therapy at higher cumulative doses or for longer periods experienced increased protection from pneumonia admission. Ma-Xing-Gan-Shi-Tang, Yin-Qiao-San, and Xiao-Qing-Long-Tang might represent possible formulae reducing the incidence of pneumonia. TCM might be associated with a lower risk of pneumonia in dementia patients. PMID:27631269

  18. Ten years cardiovascular risk estimation according to Framingham score and non HDL-cholesterol in blood donors. (United States)

    Graffigna, Mabel Nora; Berg, Gabriela; Migliano, Marta; Salgado, Pablo; Soutelo, Jimena; Musso, Carla


    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is currently the primary cause of morbidity and mortality. (1) Assess the 10 years risk for CVD in Argentinean blood donors, according to Framingham score (updated by ATP III), (2) evaluate the prevalence of the MS, (3) evaluate non HDL-cholesterol level in this population as other risk for CVD. A prospective, epidemiological, transversal study was performed to evaluate 585 volunteer blood donors for two years. Non HDL-C was calculated as total cholesterol minus HDL-C and we evaluated the 10 years risk for CVD according to Framingham score (updated by ATP III). Metabolic syndrome prevalence was estimated according to ATP III and IDF criteria. Non HDL-C was (media±SD) 178.3±48.0 mg/dl in participants with MS and 143.7±39.3 mg/dl without MS (ATPIII) and 160.1±43.6 mg/dl in participants with MS and 139.8±43.1 mg/dl without MS (IDF). Participants with MS presented an OR of 3.1; IC 95% (2-5) of CVD according to de Framingham score. Individuals with MS and elevated non HDL-C are at a higher estimated risk for cardiovascular events in the next 10 years according to the Framingham risk score. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  19. Polygenic Risk Score, Parental Socioeconomic Status, Family History of Psychiatric Disorders, and the Risk for Schizophrenia: A Danish Population-Based Study and Meta-analysis. (United States)

    Agerbo, Esben; Sullivan, Patrick F; Vilhjálmsson, Bjarni J; Pedersen, Carsten B; Mors, Ole; Børglum, Anders D; Hougaard, David M; Hollegaard, Mads V; Meier, Sandra; Mattheisen, Manuel; Ripke, Stephan; Wray, Naomi R; Mortensen, Preben B


    Schizophrenia has a complex etiology influenced both by genetic and nongenetic factors but disentangling these factors is difficult. To estimate (1) how strongly the risk for schizophrenia relates to the mutual effect of the polygenic risk score, parental socioeconomic status, and family history of psychiatric disorders; (2) the fraction of cases that could be prevented if no one was exposed to these factors; (3) whether family background interacts with an individual's genetic liability so that specific subgroups are particularly risk prone; and (4) to what extent a proband's genetic makeup mediates the risk associated with familial background. We conducted a nested case-control study based on Danish population-based registers. The study consisted of 866 patients diagnosed as having schizophrenia between January 1, 1994, and December 31, 2006, and 871 matched control individuals. Genome-wide data and family psychiatric and socioeconomic background information were obtained from neonatal biobanks and national registers. Results from a separate meta-analysis (34,600 cases and 45,968 control individuals) were applied to calculate polygenic risk scores. Polygenic risk scores, parental socioeconomic status, and family psychiatric history. Odds ratios (ORs), attributable risks, liability R2 values, and proportions mediated. Schizophrenia was associated with the polygenic risk score (OR, 8.01; 95% CI, 4.53-14.16 for highest vs lowest decile), socioeconomic status (OR, 8.10; 95% CI, 3.24-20.3 for 6 vs no exposures), and a history of schizophrenia/psychoses (OR, 4.18; 95% CI, 2.57-6.79). The R2 values were 3.4% (95% CI, 2.1-4.6) for the polygenic risk score, 3.1% (95% CI, 1.9-4.3) for parental socioeconomic status, and 3.4% (95% CI, 2.1-4.6) for family history. Socioeconomic status and psychiatric history accounted for 45.8% (95% CI, 36.1-55.5) and 25.8% (95% CI, 21.2-30.5) of cases, respectively. There was an interaction between the polygenic risk score and family history

  20. Minimizing tacrolimus decreases the risk of new-onset diabetes mellitus after liver transplantation. (United States)

    Song, Jiu-Lin; Gao, Wei; Zhong, Yan; Yan, Lu-Nan; Yang, Jia-Yin; Wen, Tian-Fu; Li, Bo; Wang, Wen-Tao; Wu, Hong; Xu, Ming-Qing; Chen, Zhe-Yu; Wei, Yong-Gang; Jiang, Li; Yang, Jian


    To investigate the impact of minimum tacrolimus (TAC) on new-onset diabetes mellitus (NODM) after liver transplantation (LT). We retrospectively analyzed the data of 973 liver transplant recipients between March 1999 and September 2014 in West China Hospital Liver Transplantation Center. Following the exclusion of ineligible recipients, 528 recipients with a TAC-dominant regimen were included in our study. We calculated and determined the mean trough concentration of TAC (cTAC) in the year of diabetes diagnosis in NODM recipients or in the last year of the follow-up in non-NODM recipients. A cutoff of mean cTAC value for predicting NODM 6 mo after LT was identified using a receptor operating characteristic curve. TAC-related complications after LT was evaluated by χ(2) test, and the overall and allograft survival was evaluated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Risk factors for NODM after LT were examined by univariate and multivariate Cox regression. Of the 528 transplant recipients, 131 (24.8%) developed NODM after 6 mo after LT, and the cumulative incidence of NODM progressively increased. The mean cTAC of NODM group recipients was significantly higher than that of recipients in the non-NODM group (7.66 ± 3.41 ng/mL vs 4.47 ± 2.22 ng/mL, P 50 years), hypertension pre-LT, and high mean cTAC (≥ 5.89 ng/mL) after 6 mo after LT were independent risk factors for developing NODM. Concurrently, recipients with a low cTAC (< 5.89 ng/mL) were less likely to become obese (21.3% vs 30.2%, P < 0.05) or to develop dyslipidemia (27.5% vs 44.8%, P <0.05), chronic kidney dysfunction (14.6% vs 22.7%, P < 0.05), and moderate to severe infection (24.7% vs 33.1%, P < 0.05) after LT than recipients in the high mean cTAC group. However, the two groups showed no significant difference in the incidence of acute and chronic rejection, hypertension, cardiovascular events and new-onset malignancy. A minimal TAC regimen can decrease the risk of long-term NODM after LT. Maintaining a c

  1. Thromboembolism and bleeding risk scores and predictors of cardiac death in a population with atrial fibrillation. (United States)

    Silva, Rose Mary Ferreira Lisboa da; Silva, Pollyana Ardavicius E; Lima, Marcos Correia; Sant'Anna, Lívia Tanure; Silva, Túlio Corrêa; Moreira, Pedro Henrique Vilela; Gandra, Robert Moreira; Cavalcanti, Túlio Ramos; Mourão, Plínio Henrique Vaz


    Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a common arrhythmia, with risk of systemic embolism and death. It presents rheumatic etiology in up to 32% of developing countries, whose anticoagulation and evolution data are scarce. to determine the predictors of cardiac death considering the clinical profile, thromboembolism and bleeding scores of patients with AF of a single center, with high prevalence of rheumatic heart disease. 302 patients with AF were studied, mean age 58.1 years; 161 women; 96 pts with rheumatic etiology. Patients underwent clinical and laboratory evaluation, measurement of risk scores and the mean follow-up of 12.8 months. 174 were using warfarin. The averages of the HAS-BLED and ATRIA scores were 1.4 and 1.2, respectively. Percent time in therapeutic range of international normalized ratio was 45.8%. Thirty patients (9.9%) had cardiac death and 41 had some type of bleeding due to warfarin. By univariate analysis, there was statistical significance between cardiac death and permanent AF, blood pressure, systolic dysfunction, R2CHADS2, CCS, EHRA and HAS-BLED. There was no association with valvular AF. By multivariate analysis, systemic arterial and pulmonary artery pressures, classification CCS and systolic dysfunction showed statistical significance. There was no association between cardiac death and valvular AF. Independent predictors of cardiac death were low measures of blood pressure, higher score CCS classification and the presence of systolic ventricular dysfunction. A fibrilação atrial (FA) é uma arritmia comum, com risco de embolia sistêmica e morte. Apresenta etiologia reumática em até 32% dos países em desenvolvimento, cujos dados de anticoagulação e evolução são escassos. Verificar as variáveis preditoras de morte cardíaca (MC) conforme o perfil clínico, os escores de tromboembolismo e de sangramento dos pacientes com FA de uma única instituição universitária, com alta prevalência de cardiopatia reumática. Foram estudados 302

  2. Optimizing the Risk Assessment in Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding: Comparison of 5 Scores Predicting 7 Outcomes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tiago Cúrdia Gonçalves


    Full Text Available Introduction: Although different scores have been suggested to predict outcomes in the setting of upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB, few comparative studies between simplified versions of older scores and recent scores have been published. We aimed to evaluate the accuracy of pre- (PreRS and postendoscopic Rockall scores (PostRS, the Glasgow-Blatchford score (GBS and its simplified version (sGBS, as well as the AIMS65 score in predicting different clinical outcomes. Methods: In this retrospective study, PreRS, PostRS, GBS, sGBS, and AIMS65 score were calculated, and then, areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve were used to evaluate the performance of each score to predict blood transfusion, endoscopic therapy, surgery, admission to intensive/intermediate care unit, length of hospital stay, as well as 30-day rebleeding or mortality. Results: PreRS, PostRS, GBS, and sGBS were calculated for all the 433 included patients, but AIMS65 calculation was only possible for 315 patients. Only the PreRS and PostRS were able to fairly predict 30-day mortality. The GBS and sGBS were good in predicting blood transfusion and reasonable in predicting surgery. None of the studied scores were good in predicting the need for endoscopic therapy, admission to intensive/intermediate care unit, length of hospital stay, and 30-day rebleeding. Conclusions: Owing to the identified limitations, none of the 5 studied scores could be singly used to predict all the clinically relevant outcomes in the setting of UGIB. The sGBS was as precise as the GBS in predicting blood transfusion and surgery. The PreRS and PostRS were the only scores that could predict 30-day mortality. An algorithm using the PreRS and the sGBS as an initial approach to patients with UGIB is presented and suggested.

  3. Seasonal prevalence, body condition score and risk factors of bovine fasciolosis in South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ishmael Festus Jaja


    Full Text Available Fasciolosis is an important zoonotic disease that is responsible for a significant loss in food resource and animal productivity. The objectives of this study were to determine the seasonal prevalence and risk factors associated with Fasciola infection in cattle. The results were obtained by coprology, antemortem and post-mortem survey of three abattoirs (HTPA1, n = 500, HTPA2, n = 400, and LTPA, n = 220. The seasonal prevalence of Fasciola infection was 10.4%, 12.8% and 10.9%, during summer, 11.2%, 10.8% and 8.6%, during autumn, 9.8%, 6.5% and 5.9% during winter and 8.2%, 7.8% and 5.9%, during spring in the three abattoirs HTPA1, HTPA and LTPA respectively. There was a significant association (p < 0.05 between the intensity of infection and body condition score (BCS of cattle at each abattoir. Factors such as age [HTPA1 (OR = 3.6, CI = 1.2, 10.2, and LTPA (OR = 3.8, CI= 2.4, 6.1], sex [LTPA (OR = 4.2, CI= 2.5, 7.0], breed [HTPA2 (OR = 2.3, CI = 1.3, 4.1 and LTPA (OR = 2.5, CI= 1.3, 5.0] and BCS had significant (p < 0.01–0.001 influence on the prevalence of fasciolosis. In conclusion, the infection with Fasciola spp was higher in the summer than in the winter; a positive association was established between the prevalence of fasciolosis and poor body condition in study animals. This study, therefore, suggests that fasciolosis could be causing substantial production losses, mainly due to cattle weight loss and liver condemnation.

  4. Comparison of weighting approaches for genetic risk scores in gene-environment interaction studies. (United States)

    Hüls, Anke; Krämer, Ursula; Carlsten, Christopher; Schikowski, Tamara; Ickstadt, Katja; Schwender, Holger


    Weighted genetic risk scores (GRS), defined as weighted sums of risk alleles of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), are statistically powerful for detection gene-environment (GxE) interactions. To assign weights, the gold standard is to use external weights from an independent study. However, appropriate external weights are not always available. In such situations and in the presence of predominant marginal genetic effects, we have shown in a previous study that GRS with internal weights from marginal genetic effects ("GRS-marginal-internal") are a powerful and reliable alternative to single SNP approaches or the use of unweighted GRS. However, this approach might not be appropriate for detecting predominant interactions, i.e. interactions showing an effect stronger than the marginal genetic effect. In this paper, we present a weighting approach for such predominant interactions ("GRS-interaction-training") in which parts of the data are used to estimate the weights from the interaction terms and the remaining data are used to determine the GRS. We conducted a simulation study for the detection of GxE interactions in which we evaluated power, type I error and sign-misspecification. We compared this new weighting approach to the GRS-marginal-internal approach and to GRS with external weights. Our simulation study showed that in the absence of external weights and with predominant interaction effects, the highest power was reached with the GRS-interaction-training approach. If marginal genetic effects were predominant, the GRS-marginal-internal approach was more appropriate. Furthermore, the power to detect interactions reached by the GRS-interaction-training approach was only slightly lower than the power achieved by GRS with external weights. The power of the GRS-interaction-training approach was confirmed in a real data application to the Traffic, Asthma and Genetics (TAG) Study (N = 4465 observations). When appropriate external weights are unavailable, we

  5. The Role of Biomarkers in Decreasing Risk of Cardiac Toxicity after Cancer Therapy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christine Henri


    Full Text Available With the improvement of cancer therapy, survival related to malignancy has improved, but the prevalence of long-term cardiotoxicity has also increased. Cancer therapies with known cardiac toxicity include anthracyclines, biologic agents (trastuzumab, and multikinase inhibitors (sunitinib. The most frequent presentation of cardiac toxicity is dilated cardiomyopathy associated with poorest prognosis. Monitoring of cardiac toxicity is commonly performed by assessment of left ventricular (LV ejection fraction, which requires a significant amount of myocardial damage to allow detection of cardiac toxicity. Accordingly, this creates the impetus to search for more sensitive and reproducible biomarkers of cardiac toxicity after cancer therapy. Different biomarkers have been proposed to that end, the most studied ones included troponin release resulting from cardiomyocyte damage and natriuretic peptides reflecting elevation in LV filling pressure and wall stress. Increase in the levels of troponin and natriuretic peptides have been correlated with cumulative dose of anthracycline and the degree of LV dysfunction. Troponin is recognized as a highly efficient predictor of early and chronic cardiac toxicity, but there remains some debate regarding the clinical usefulness of the measurement of natriuretic peptides because of divergent results. Preliminary data are available for other biomarkers targeting inflammation, endothelial dysfunction, myocardial ischemia, and neuregulin-1. The purpose of this article is to review the available data to determine the role of biomarkers in decreasing the risk of cardiac toxicity after cancer therapy.

  6. External validation of a clinical scoring system for the risk of gestational diabetes mellitus

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Leeuwen, M.; Opmeer, B. C.; Zweers, E. J. K.; van Ballegooie, E.; ter Brugge, H. G.; de Valk, H. W.; Visser, G. H. A.; Mol, B. W. J.

    Aim: A prediction rule for gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) could be helpful in early detection and increased efficiency of screening. A prediction rule by means of a clinical scoring system is available, but has never been validated externally. The aim of this study was to validate the scoring

  7. External Validation of Risk Prediction Scores for Invasive Candidiasis in a Medical/Surgical Intensive Care Unit: An Observational Study (United States)

    Ahmed, Armin; Baronia, Arvind Kumar; Azim, Afzal; Marak, Rungmei S. K.; Yadav, Reema; Sharma, Preeti; Gurjar, Mohan; Poddar, Banani; Singh, Ratender Kumar


    Background: The aim of this study was to conduct external validation of risk prediction scores for invasive candidiasis. Methods: We conducted a prospective observational study in a 12-bedded adult medical/surgical Intensive Care Unit (ICU) to evaluate Candida score >3, colonization index (CI) >0.5, corrected CI >0.4 (CCI), and Ostrosky's clinical prediction rule (CPR). Patients' characteristics and risk factors for invasive candidiasis were noted. Patients were divided into two groups; invasive candidiasis and no-invasive candidiasis. Results: Of 198 patients, 17 developed invasive candidiasis. Discriminatory power (area under receiver operator curve [AUROC]) for Candida score, CI, CCI, and CPR were 0.66, 0.67, 0.63, and 0.62, respectively. A large number of patients in the no-invasive candidiasis group (114 out of 181) were exposed to antifungal agents during their stay in ICU. Subgroup analysis was carried out after excluding such patients from no-invasive candidiasis group. AUROC of Candida score, CI, CCI, and CPR were 0.7, 0.7, 0.65, and 0.72, respectively, and positive predictive values (PPVs) were in the range of 25%–47%, along with negative predictive values (NPVs) in the range of 84%–96% in the subgroup analysis. Conclusion: Currently available risk prediction scores have good NPV but poor PPV. They are useful for selecting patients who are not likely to benefit from antifungal therapy. PMID:28904481

  8. Almanac 2012: Cardiovascular risk scores. The national society journals present selected research that has driven recent advances in clinical cardiology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jill P. Pell


    Full Text Available Global risk scores use individual level information on non-modifiable risk factors (such as age, sex, ethnicity and family history and modifiable risk factors (such as smoking status and blood pressure to predict an individual’s absolute risk of an adverse event over a specified period of time in the future. Cardiovascular risk scores have two major uses in practice. First, they can be used to dichotomise people into a group whose baseline risk, and therefore potential absolute benefit, is sufficiently high to justify the costs and risks associated with an intervention (whether treatment or prevention and a group with a lower absolute risk to whom the intervention is usually denied. Second, they can be used to assess the effectiveness of an intervention (such as smoking cessation or antihypertensive treatment at reducing an individual’s risk of future adverse events. In this context, they can be helpful in informing patients, motivating them to change their lifestyle, and reinforcing the importance of continued compliance.

  9. Diabetes risk score in the United Arab Emirates: a screening tool for the early detection of type 2 diabetes mellitus (United States)

    Sulaiman, Nabil; Hussein, Amal; Elbadawi, Salah; Abusnana, Salah; Zimmet, Paul


    Objective The objective of this study was to develop a simple non-invasive risk score, specific to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) citizens, to identify individuals at increased risk of having undiagnosed type 2 diabetes mellitus. Research design and methods A retrospective analysis of the UAE National Diabetes and Lifestyle data was conducted. The data included demographic and anthropometric measurements, and fasting blood glucose. Univariate analyses were used to identify the risk factors for diabetes. The risk score was developed for UAE citizens using a stepwise forward regression model. Results A total of 872 UAE citizens were studied. The overall prevalence of diabetes in the UAE adult citizens in the Northern Emirates was 25.1%. The significant risk factors identified for diabetes were age (≥35 years), a family history of diabetes mellitus, hypertension, body mass index ≥30.0 and waist-to-hip ratio ≥0.90 for males and ≥0.85 for females. The performance of the model was moderate in terms of sensitivity (75.4%, 95% CI 68.3 to 81.7) and specificity (70%, 95% CI 65.8 to 73.9). The area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve was 0.82 (95% CI 0.78 to 0.86). Conclusions A simple, non-invasive risk score model was developed to help to identify those at high risk of having diabetes among UAE citizens. This score could contribute to the efficient and less expensive earlier detection of diabetes in this high-risk population. PMID:29629178

  10. Inclusion of Highest Glasgow Coma Scale Motor Component Score in Mortality Risk Adjustment for Benchmarking of Trauma Center Performance. (United States)

    Gomez, David; Byrne, James P; Alali, Aziz S; Xiong, Wei; Hoeft, Chris; Neal, Melanie; Subacius, Harris; Nathens, Avery B


    The Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) is the most widely used measure of traumatic brain injury (TBI) severity. Currently, the arrival GCS motor component (mGCS) score is used in risk-adjustment models for external benchmarking of mortality. However, there is evidence that the highest mGCS score in the first 24 hours after injury might be a better predictor of death. Our objective was to evaluate the impact of including the highest mGCS score on the performance of risk-adjustment models and subsequent external benchmarking results. Data were derived from the Trauma Quality Improvement Program analytic dataset (January 2014 through March 2015) and were limited to the severe TBI cohort (16 years or older, isolated head injury, GCS ≤8). Risk-adjustment models were created that varied in the mGCS covariates only (initial score, highest score, or both initial and highest mGCS scores). Model performance and fit, as well as external benchmarking results, were compared. There were 6,553 patients with severe TBI across 231 trauma centers included. Initial and highest mGCS scores were different in 47% of patients (n = 3,097). Model performance and fit improved when both initial and highest mGCS scores were included, as evidenced by improved C-statistic, Akaike Information Criterion, and adjusted R-squared values. Three-quarters of centers changed their adjusted odds ratio decile, 2.6% of centers changed outlier status, and 45% of centers exhibited a ≥0.5-SD change in the odds ratio of death after including highest mGCS score in the model. This study supports the concept that additional clinical information has the potential to not only improve the performance of current risk-adjustment models, but can also have a meaningful impact on external benchmarking strategies. Highest mGCS score is a good potential candidate for inclusion in additional models. Copyright © 2017 American College of Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Predicting long-term mortality after Fontan procedures: A risk score based on 6707 patients from 28 studies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Alsaied, Tarek; Bokma, Jouke P.; Engel, Mark E.; Kuijpers, Joey M.; Hanke, Samuel P.; Zuhlke, Liesl; Zhang, Bin; Veldtman, Gruschen R.


    Reported long-term outcome measures vary greatly between studies in Fontan patients making comprehensive appraisal of mortality hazard challenging. We sought to create a clinical risk score to assist monitoring of Fontan patients in the outpatient setting. A systematic review was conducted to

  12. Using "big data" to capture overall health status: properties and predictive value of a claims-based health risk score. (United States)

    Hamad, Rita; Modrek, Sepideh; Kubo, Jessica; Goldstein, Benjamin A; Cullen, Mark R


    Investigators across many fields often struggle with how best to capture an individual's overall health status, with options including both subjective and objective measures. With the increasing availability of "big data," researchers can now take advantage of novel metrics of health status. These predictive algorithms were initially developed to forecast and manage expenditures, yet they represent an underutilized tool that could contribute significantly to health research. In this paper, we describe the properties and possible applications of one such "health risk score," the DxCG Intelligence tool. We link claims and administrative datasets on a cohort of U.S. workers during the period 1996-2011 (N = 14,161). We examine the risk score's association with incident diagnoses of five disease conditions, and we link employee data with the National Death Index to characterize its relationship with mortality. We review prior studies documenting the risk score's association with other health and non-health outcomes, including healthcare utilization, early retirement, and occupational injury. We find that the risk score is associated with outcomes across a variety of health and non-health domains. These examples demonstrate the broad applicability of this tool in multiple fields of research and illustrate its utility as a measure of overall health status for epidemiologists and other health researchers.

  13. Risk prediction scores for recurrence and progression of non-muscle invasive bladder cancer : An international validation in primary tumours

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.M. Vedder (Moniek); M. Márquez (Mirari); E.W. de Bekker-Grob (Esther); M.L. Calle (Malu); L. Dyrskjot (Lars); M. Kogevinas (Manolis); U. Segersten (Ulrika); P.-U. Malmström (Per-Uno); F. Algaba (Ferran); W. Beukers (Willemien); T.F. Orntoft (Torben); E.C. Zwarthoff (Ellen); F.X. Real (Francisco); N. Malats (Núria); E.W. Steyerberg (Ewout)


    textabstractObjective: We aimed to determine the validity of two risk scores for patients with non-muscle invasive bladder cancer in different European settings, in patients with primary tumours. Methods: We included 1,892 patients with primary stage Ta or T1 non-muscle invasive bladder cancer who

  14. Risk score for predicting adolescent mental health problems among children using parental report only : the TRAILS study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Burger, Huibert; Boks, Marco P.; Hartman, Catharina A.; Aukes, Maartje F.; Verhulst, Frank C.; Ormel, Johan; Reijneveld, Sijmen A.


    OBJECTIVE: To construct a risk score for adolescent mental health problems among children, using parental data only and without potentially stigmatizing mental health items. METHODS: We prospectively derived a prediction model for mental health problems at age 16 using data from parent report on

  15. Risk of poor neonatal outcome at term after medically assisted reproduction: a propensity score-matched study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ensing, Sabine; Abu-Hanna, Ameen; Roseboom, Tessa J.; Repping, Sjoerd; van der Veen, Fulco; Mol, Ben Willem J.; Ravelli, Anita C. J.


    To study risk of birth asphyxia and related morbidity among term singletons born after medically assisted reproduction (MAR). Population cohort study. Not applicable. A total of 1,953,932 term singleton pregnancies selected from a national registry for 1999-2011. None. Primary outcome Apgar score

  16. Validation of a 5-year risk score of hip fracture in postmenopausal women. The Danish Nurse Cohort Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hundrup, Y A; Jacobsen, R K; Andreasen, A H


    We evaluated the Women's Health Initiative (WHI) hip fracture risk score in 15,648 postmenopausal Danish nurses. The algorithm was well calibrated for Denmark. However, the sensitivity was poor at common decision making thresholds. Obtaining sensitivity better than 80% led to a low specificity...

  17. Major bleeding and intracranial hemorrhage risk prediction in patients with atrial fibrillation: Attention to modifiable bleeding risk factors or use of a bleeding risk stratification score? A nationwide cohort study. (United States)

    Chao, Tze-Fan; Lip, Gregory Y H; Lin, Yenn-Jiang; Chang, Shih-Lin; Lo, Li-Wei; Hu, Yu-Feng; Tuan, Ta-Chuan; Liao, Jo-Nan; Chung, Fa-Po; Chen, Tzeng-Ji; Chen, Shih-Ann


    While modifiable bleeding risks should be addressed in all patients with atrial fibrillation (AF), use of a bleeding risk score enables clinicians to 'flag up' those at risk of bleeding for more regular patient contact reviews. We compared a risk assessment strategy for major bleeding and intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) based on modifiable bleeding risk factors (referred to as a 'MBR factors' score) against established bleeding risk stratification scores (HEMORR 2 HAGES, HAS-BLED, ATRIA, ORBIT). A nationwide cohort study of 40,450 AF patients who received warfarin for stroke prevention was performed. The clinical endpoints included ICH and major bleeding. Bleeding scores were compared using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves (areas under the ROC curves [AUCs], or c-index) and the net reclassification index (NRI). During a follow up of 4.60±3.62years, 1581 (3.91%) patients sustained ICH and 6889 (17.03%) patients sustained major bleeding events. All tested bleeding risk scores at baseline were higher in those sustaining major bleeds. When compared to no ICH, patients sustaining ICH had higher baseline HEMORR 2 HAGES (p=0.003), HAS-BLED (pbleeding scores, c-indexes were significantly higher compared to MBR factors (pbleeding. C-indexes for the MBR factors score was significantly lower compared to all other scores (De long test, all pbleeding risk scores for major bleeding (all pbleeding risk scores had modest predictive value for predicting major bleeding but the best predictive value and NRI was found for the HAS-BLED score. Simply depending on modifiable bleeding risk factors had suboptimal predictive value for the prediction of major bleeding in AF patients, when compared to the HAS-BLED score. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Evaluation of Polygenic Risk Scores for Breast and Ovarian Cancer Risk Prediction in BRCA1 and BRCA2 Mutation Carriers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kuchenbaecker, Karoline B; McGuffog, Lesley; Barrowdale, Daniel


    Background: Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified 94 common single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with breast cancer (BC) risk and 18 associated with ovarian cancer (OC) risk. Several of these are also associated with risk of BC or OC for women who carry a pathogenic ...... risk in BRCA1 and BRCA2 carriers. Incorporation of the PRS into risk prediction models has promise to better inform decisions on cancer risk management....

  19. Health care index score and risk of death following tuberculosis diagnosis in HIV-positive patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Podlekareva, D N; Grint, D; Post, F A


    To assess health care utilisation for patients co-infected with TB and HIV (TB-HIV), and to develop a weighted health care index (HCI) score based on commonly used interventions and compare it with patient outcome.......To assess health care utilisation for patients co-infected with TB and HIV (TB-HIV), and to develop a weighted health care index (HCI) score based on commonly used interventions and compare it with patient outcome....

  20. Is there a role for coronary artery calcium scoring for management of asymptomatic patients at risk for coronary artery disease?: Clinical risk scores are not sufficient to define primary prevention treatment strategies among asymptomatic patients. (United States)

    Blaha, Michael J; Silverman, Michael G; Budoff, Matthew J


    Although risk factors have proven to be useful therapeutic targets, they are poor predictors of risk. Traditional risk scores are moderately successful in predicting future CHD events and can be a starting place for general risk categorization. However, there is substantial heterogeneity between traditional risk and actual atherosclerosis burden, with event rates predominantly driven by burden of atherosclerosis. Serum biomarkers have yet to show any clinically significant incremental value to the FRS and even when combined cannot match the predictive value of atherosclerosis imaging. As clinicians, are we willing to base therapy decisions on risk models that lack optimum-achievable accuracy and limit personalization? The decision to treat a patient in primary prevention must be a careful one because the benefit of therapy in an asymptomatic patient must clearly outweigh the potential risk. CAC, in particular, provides a personalized assessment of risk and may identify patients who will be expected to derive the most, and the least, net absolute benefit from treatment. Emerging evidence hints that CAC may also promote long-term adherence to aspirin, exercise, diet, and statin therapy. When potentially lifelong treatment decisions are on the line, clinicians must arm their patients with the most accurate risk prediction tools, and subclinical atherosclerosis testing with CAC is, at the present time, superior to any combination of risk factors and serum biomarkers.

  1. CHA2DS2-VASc score and risk of thromboembolism and bleeding in patients with atrial fibrillation and recent cancer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    D'Souza, Maria; Carlson, Nicholas; Fosbøl, Emil


    Background Cancer may influence the risk of thromboembolism and bleeding associated with the CHA2DS2-VASc score. We examined the risk of thromboembolism and bleeding associated with the CHA2DS2-VASc score in atrial fibrillation patients with and without recent cancer. Methods and results Using...... nationwide registers all patients diagnosed with atrial fibrillation from 2000 to 2015 and not on oral anticoagulation or heparin therapy were included and followed for 2 years. Recent cancer was defined by a cancer diagnosis 5 years or fewer earlier. Risks of thromboembolism and bleeding were estimated...... in cumulative incidence curves and Cox regression models. We included 122,053 patients with incident atrial fibrillation, 12,014 (10%) had recent cancer. The 2-year cumulative incidence of thromboembolism and bleeding in patients with versus without recent cancer was 1.7% (95% confidence interval (CI) 0...

  2. A new risk scoring model for prediction of poor coronary collateral circulation in acute non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction. (United States)

    İleri, Mehmet; Güray, Ümit; Yetkin, Ertan; Gürsoy, Havva Tuğba; Bayır, Pınar Türker; Şahin, Deniz; Elalmış, Özgül Uçar; Büyükaşık, Yahya


    We aimed to investigate the clinical features associated with development of coronary collateral circulation (CCC) in patients with acute non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) and to develop a scoring model for predicting poor collateralization at hospital admission. The study enrolled 224 consecutive patients with NSTEMI admitted to our coronary care unit. Patients were divided into poor (grade 0 and 1) and good (grade 2 and 3) CCC groups. In logistic regression analysis, presence of diabetes mellitus, total white blood cell (WBC) and neutrophil counts and neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR) were found as independent positive predictors of poor CCC, whereas older age (≥ 70 years) emerged as a negative indicator. The final scoring model was based on 5 variables which were significant at p risk score ≤ 1, 29 had good CCC (with a 97% negative predictive value). On the other hand, 139 patients had risk score ≥ 4; out of whom, 130 (with a 93.5% positive predictive value) had poor collateralization. Sensitivity and specificity of the model in predicting poor collateralization in patients with scores ≤ 1 and ≥ 4 were 99.2% (130/131) and +76.3 (29/38), respectively. This study represents the first prediction model for degree of coronary collateralization in patients with acute NSTEMI.

  3. Dietary diversity decreases the risk of cognitive decline among Japanese older adults. (United States)

    Otsuka, Rei; Nishita, Yukiko; Tange, Chikako; Tomida, Makiko; Kato, Yuki; Nakamoto, Mariko; Imai, Tomoko; Ando, Fujiko; Shimokata, Hiroshi


    To clarify the effectiveness of dietary diversity, calculated by dietary records, on cognitive decline. Data were derived from the National Institute for Longevity Sciences - Longitudinal Study of Aging. Participants comprised 298 men and 272 women aged 60-81 years at baseline (second wave) who participated in the follow-up study (third to seventh wave) at least once. Cognitive function was assessed with the Mini-Mental State Examination in all study waves. Dietary diversity was determined using the Quantitative Index for Dietary Diversity based on a 3-day dietary record in the second wave. Cumulative data among participants with a Mini-Mental State Examination score >27 in the second wave were analyzed using a generalized estimating equation. Multivariate adjusted odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for Mini-Mental State Examination scores ≤27 in each study wave according to a 1 standard deviation (increase), or quartiles of the Quantitative Index for Dietary Diversity at baseline, were adjusted for sex, age, follow-up time, baseline Mini-Mental State Examination score, education, body mass index, annual household income, current smoking status, energy intake and disease history. Multivariate adjusted odds ratio for a decline in Mini-Mental State Examination score was 0.79 (95% CI 0.70-0.89; P < 0.001) with a 1 SD increase in dietary diversity score, or 1.00 (reference), 0.99 (95% CI 0.70-1.43), 0.68 (95% CI 0.46-0.99) and 0.56 (95% CI 0.38-0.83) according to the lowest through highest quartiles of dietary diversity score, respectively (trend P = 0.001). Daily intake of various kinds of food might be a protective factor against cognitive decline in community-dwelling Japanese older adults. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2017; 17: 937-944. © 2016 Japan Geriatrics Society.

  4. Low- and high-testosterone individuals exhibit decreased aversion to economic risk. (United States)

    Stanton, Steven J; Mullette-Gillman, O'Dhaniel A; McLaurin, R Edward; Kuhn, Cynthia M; LaBar, Kevin S; Platt, Michael L; Huettel, Scott A


    Testosterone is positively associated with risk-taking behavior in social domains (e.g., crime, physical aggression). However, the scant research linking testosterone to economic risk preferences presents inconsistent findings. We examined the relationship between endogenous testosterone and individuals' economic preferences (i.e., risk preference, ambiguity preference, and loss aversion) in a large sample (N = 298) of men and women. We found that endogenous testosterone levels have a significant U-shaped association with individuals' risk and ambiguity preferences, but not loss aversion. Specifically, individuals with low or high levels of testosterone (more than 1.5 SD from the mean for their gender) were risk and ambiguity neutral, whereas individuals with intermediate levels of testosterone were risk and ambiguity averse. This relationship was highly similar in men and women. In contrast to received wisdom regarding testosterone and risk, the present data provide the first robust evidence for a nonlinear association between economic preferences and levels of endogenous testosterone.

  5. The Laboratory-Based Intermountain Validated Exacerbation (LIVE Score Identifies Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Patients at High Mortality Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Denitza P. Blagev


    Full Text Available Background: Identifying COPD patients at high risk for mortality or healthcare utilization remains a challenge. A robust system for identifying high-risk COPD patients using Electronic Health Record (EHR data would empower targeting interventions aimed at ensuring guideline compliance and multimorbidity management. The purpose of this study was to empirically derive, validate, and characterize subgroups of COPD patients based on routinely collected clinical data widely available within the EHR.Methods: Cluster analysis was used in 5,006 patients with COPD at Intermountain to identify clusters based on a large collection of clinical variables. Recursive Partitioning (RP was then used to determine a preferred tree that assigned patients to clusters based on a parsimonious variable subset. The mortality, COPD exacerbations, and comorbidity profile of the identified groups were examined. The findings were validated in an independent Intermountain cohort and in external cohorts from the United States Veterans Affairs (VA and University of Chicago Medicine systems.Measurements and Main Results: The RP algorithm identified five LIVE Scores based on laboratory values: albumin, creatinine, chloride, potassium, and hemoglobin. The groups were characterized by increasing risk of mortality. The lowest risk, LIVE Score 5 had 8% 4-year mortality vs. 56% in the highest risk LIVE Score 1 (p < 0.001. These findings were validated in the VA cohort (n = 83,134, an expanded Intermountain cohort (n = 48,871 and in the University of Chicago system (n = 3,236. Higher mortality groups also had higher COPD exacerbation rates and comorbidity rates.Conclusions: In large clinical datasets across different organizations, the LIVE Score utilizes existing laboratory data for COPD patients, and may be used to stratify risk for mortality and COPD exacerbations.

  6. Risk-based priority scoring for Brookhaven National Laboratory environmental restoration programs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morris, S.C.; Meinhold, A.F.


    This report describes the process of estimating the risk associated with environmental restoration programs under the Brookhaven National Laboratory Office of Environmental Restoration. The process was part of an effort across all Department of Energy facilities to provide a consistent framework to communicate risk information about the facilities to senior managers in the DOE Office of Environmental Management to foster understanding of risk activities across programs. the risk evaluation was a qualitative exercise. Categories considered included: Public health and safety; site personnel safety and health; compliance; mission impact; cost-effective risk management; environmental protection; inherent worker risk; environmental effects of clean-up; and social, cultural, political, and economic impacts

  7. Development and Validation of a Simple Risk Score for Undiagnosed Type 2 Diabetes in a Resource-Constrained Setting (United States)

    Gilman, Robert H.; Sanchez-Abanto, Jose R.; Study Group, CRONICAS Cohort


    Objective. To develop and validate a risk score for detecting cases of undiagnosed diabetes in a resource-constrained country. Methods. Two population-based studies in Peruvian population aged ≥35 years were used in the analysis: the ENINBSC survey (n = 2,472) and the CRONICAS Cohort Study (n = 2,945). Fasting plasma glucose ≥7.0 mmol/L was used to diagnose diabetes in both studies. Coefficients for risk score were derived from the ENINBSC data and then the performance was validated using both baseline and follow-up data of the CRONICAS Cohort Study. Results. The prevalence of undiagnosed diabetes was 2.0% in the ENINBSC survey and 2.9% in the CRONICAS Cohort Study. Predictors of undiagnosed diabetes were age, diabetes in first-degree relatives, and waist circumference. Score values ranged from 0 to 4, with an optimal cutoff ≥2 and had a moderate performance when applied in the CRONICAS baseline data (AUC = 0.68; 95% CI: 0.62–0.73; sensitivity 70%; specificity 59%). When predicting incident cases, the AUC was 0.66 (95% CI: 0.61–0.71), with a sensitivity of 69% and specificity of 59%. Conclusions. A simple nonblood based risk score based on age, diabetes in first-degree relatives, and waist circumference can be used as a simple screening tool for undiagnosed and incident cases of diabetes in Peru. PMID:27689096

  8. Distinct multivariate brain morphological patterns and their added predictive value with cognitive and polygenic risk scores in mental disorders

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nhat Trung Doan


    Full Text Available The brain underpinnings of schizophrenia and bipolar disorders are multidimensional, reflecting complex pathological processes and causal pathways, requiring multivariate techniques to disentangle. Furthermore, little is known about the complementary clinical value of brain structural phenotypes when combined with data on cognitive performance and genetic risk. Using data-driven fusion of cortical thickness, surface area, and gray matter density maps (GMD, we found six biologically meaningful patterns showing strong group effects, including four statistically independent multimodal patterns reflecting co-occurring alterations in thickness and GMD in patients, over and above two other independent patterns of widespread thickness and area reduction. Case-control classification using cognitive scores alone revealed high accuracy, and adding imaging features or polygenic risk scores increased performance, suggesting their complementary predictive value with cognitive scores being the most sensitive features. Multivariate pattern analyses reveal distinct patterns of brain morphology in mental disorders, provide insights on the relative importance between brain structure, cognitive and polygenetic risk score in classification of patients, and demonstrate the importance of multivariate approaches in studying the pathophysiological substrate of these complex disorders.

  9. CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc score to assess risk of stroke and death in patients paced for sick sinus syndrome

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Svendsen, Jesper Hastrup; Nielsen, Jens Cosedis; Darkner, Stine


    The risk of stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) can be assessed by use of the CHADS2 and the CHA2DS2-VASc score system. We hypothesised that these risk scores and their individual components could also be applied to patients paced for sick sinus syndrome (SSS) to evaluate risk of str...

  10. The Patient- And Nutrition-Derived Outcome Risk Assessment Score (PANDORA: Development of a Simple Predictive Risk Score for 30-Day In-Hospital Mortality Based on Demographics, Clinical Observation, and Nutrition.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Hiesmayr

    Full Text Available To develop a simple scoring system to predict 30 day in-hospital mortality of in-patients excluding those from intensive care units based on easily obtainable demographic, disease and nutrition related patient data.Score development with general estimation equation methodology and model selection by P-value thresholding based on a cross-sectional sample of 52 risk indicators with 123 item classes collected with questionnaires and stored in an multilingual online database.Worldwide prospective cross-sectional cohort with 30 day in-hospital mortality from the nutritionDay 2006-2009 and an external validation sample from 2012.We included 43894 patients from 2480 units in 32 countries. 1631(3.72% patients died within 30 days in hospital. The Patient- And Nutrition-Derived Outcome Risk Assessment (PANDORA score predicts 30-day hospital mortality based on 7 indicators with 31 item classes on a scale from 0 to 75 points. The indicators are age (0 to 17 points, nutrient intake on nutritionDay (0 to 12 points, mobility (0 to 11 points, fluid status (0 to 10 points, BMI (0 to 9 points, cancer (9 points and main patient group (0 to 7 points. An appropriate model fit has been achieved. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for mortality prediction was 0.82 in the development sample and 0.79 in the external validation sample.The PANDORA score is a simple, robust scoring system for a general population of hospitalised patients to be used for risk stratification and benchmarking.

  11. Derivation and validation of a novel risk score for safe discharge after acute lower gastrointestinal bleeding: a modelling study. (United States)

    Oakland, Kathryn; Jairath, Vipul; Uberoi, Raman; Guy, Richard; Ayaru, Lakshmana; Mortensen, Neil; Murphy, Mike F; Collins, Gary S


    Acute lower gastrointestinal bleeding is a common reason for emergency hospital admission, and identification of patients at low risk of harm, who are therefore suitable for outpatient investigation, is a clinical and research priority. We aimed to develop and externally validate a simple risk score to identify patients with lower gastrointestinal bleeding who could safely avoid hospital admission. We undertook model development with data from the National Comparative Audit of Lower Gastrointestinal Bleeding from 143 hospitals in the UK in 2015. Multivariable logistic regression modelling was used to identify predictors of safe discharge, defined as the absence of rebleeding, blood transfusion, therapeutic intervention, 28 day readmission, or death. The model was converted into a simplified risk scoring system and was externally validated in 288 patients admitted with lower gastrointestinal bleeding (184 safely discharged) from two UK hospitals (Charing Cross Hospital, London, and Hammersmith Hospital, London) that had not contributed data to the development cohort. We calculated C statistics for the new model and did a comparative assessment with six previously developed risk scores. Of 2336 prospectively identified admissions in the development cohort, 1599 (68%) were safely discharged. Age, sex, previous admission for lower gastrointestinal bleeding, rectal examination findings, heart rate, systolic blood pressure, and haemoglobin concentration strongly discriminated safe discharge in the development cohort (C statistic 0·84, 95% CI 0·82-0·86) and in the validation cohort (0·79, 0·73-0·84). Calibration plots showed the new risk score to have good calibration in the validation cohort. The score was better than the Rockall, Blatchford, Strate, BLEED, AIMS65, and NOBLADS scores in predicting safe discharge. A score of 8 or less predicts a 95% probability of safe discharge. We developed and validated a novel clinical prediction model with good discriminative

  12. Comparison of the HEART and TIMI Risk Scores for Suspected Acute Coronary Syndrome in the Emergency Department. (United States)

    Sun, Benjamin C; Laurie, Amber; Fu, Rongwei; Ferencik, Maros; Shapiro, Michael; Lindsell, Christopher J; Diercks, Deborah; Hoekstra, James W; Hollander, Judd E; Kirk, J Douglas; Peacock, W Frank; Anantharaman, Venkataraman; Pollack, Charles V


    The emergency department evaluation for suspected acute coronary syndrome (ACS) is common, costly, and challenging. Risk scores may help standardize clinical care and screening for research studies. The Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) and HEART are two commonly cited risk scores. We tested the null hypothesis that the TIMI and HEART risk scores have equivalent test characteristics. We analyzed data from the Internet Tracking Registry of Acute Coronary Syndromes (i*trACS) from 9 EDs on patients with suspected ACS, 1999-2001. We excluded patients with an emergency department diagnosis consistent with ACS, or without sufficient data to calculate TIMI and HEART scores. The primary outcome was 30-day major adverse cardiovascular events, including all-cause death, acute myocardial infarction, and urgent revascularization. We describe test characteristics of the TIMI and HEART risk scores. The study cohort included 8255 patients with 508 (6.2%) 30-day major adverse cardiovascular events. Receiver operating curve and reclassification analyses favored HEART [c statistic: 0.753, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.733-0.773; continuous net reclassification improvement: 0.608, 95% CI: 0.527-0.689] over TIMI (c statistic: 0.678, 95% CI: 0.655-0.702). A HEART score 0-3 [negative predictive value (NPV) 0.982, 95% CI: 0.978-0.986; positive predictive value (PPV) 0.103, 95% CI: 0.094-0.113; likelihood ratio (LR) positive 1.76; LR negative 0.28] demonstrates similar or superior NPV/PPV/LR compared with TIMI = 0 (NPV 0.978, 95% CI: 0.971-0.983; PPV 0.077, 95% CI: 0.071-0.084; LR positive 1.28; LR negative 0.35) and TIMI = 0-1 (NPV 0.963, 95% CI: 0.958-0.968; PPV 0.102, 95% CI: 0.092-0.113; LR positive 1.73; LR negative 0.58). The HEART score has better discrimination than TIMI and outperforms TIMI within previously published "low-risk" categories.

  13. Additive composite ABCG2, SLC2A9 and SLC22A12 scores of high-risk alleles with alcohol use modulate gout risk. (United States)

    Tu, Hung-Pin; Chung, Chia-Min; Min-Shan Ko, Albert; Lee, Su-Shin; Lai, Han-Ming; Lee, Chien-Hung; Huang, Chung-Ming; Liu, Chiu-Shong; Ko, Ying-Chin


    The aim of the present study was to evaluate the contribution of urate transporter genes and alcohol use to the risk of gout/tophi. Eight variants of ABCG2, SLC2A9, SLC22A12, SLC22A11 and SLC17A3 were genotyped in male individuals in a case-control study with 157 gout (33% tophi), 106 asymptomatic hyperuricaemia and 295 control subjects from Taiwan. The multilocus profiles of the genetic risk scores for urate gene variants were used to evaluate the risk of asymptomatic hyperuricaemia, gout and tophi. ABCG2 Q141K (T), SLC2A9 rs1014290 (A) and SLC22A12 rs475688 (C) under an additive model and alcohol use independently predicted the risk of gout (respective odds ratio for each factor=2.48, 2.03, 1.95 and 2.48). The additive composite Q141K, rs1014290 and rs475688 scores of high-risk alleles were associated with gout risk (Pgout and tophi risk (P for interaction=0.0452, 0.0033). The synergistic effect of genetic urate score 5-6 and alcohol use indicates that these combined factors correlate with gout and tophi occurrence.

  14. Relationship between different cardiovascular risk scores and measures of subclinical atherosclerosis in an Indian population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manish Bansal


    Conclusions: The present study shows that in Indian subjects RiskJBS appears to provide the most accurate estimation of CV risk. It least underestimates the risk and has the best correlation with CIMT and CCS. However, large-scale prospective studies are needed to confirm these findings.

  15. A policy of routine umbilical cord blood gas analysis decreased missing samples from high-risk births. (United States)

    Ahlberg, M; Elvander, C; Johansson, S; Cnattingius, S; Stephansson, O


    This study compared obstetric units practicing routine or selective umbilical cord blood gas analysis, with respect to the risk of missing samples in high-risk deliveries and in infants with birth asphyxia. This was a Swedish population-based cohort study that used register data for 155 235 deliveries of live singleton infants between 2008 and 2014. Risk ratios and 95% confidence intervals were calculated to estimate the association between routine and selective umbilical cord blood gas sampling strategies and the risk of missing samples. Selective sampling increased the risk ratios when routine sampling was used as the reference, with a value of 1.0, and these were significant in high-risk deliveries and birth asphyxia. The risk ratios for selective sampling were large-for-gestational age (9.07), preterm delivery at up to 36 weeks of gestation (8.24), small-for-gestational age (7.94), two or more foetal scalp blood samples (5.96), an Apgar score of less than seven at one minute (2.36), emergency Caesarean section (1.67) and instrumental vaginal delivery (1.24). Compared with routine sampling, selective umbilical cord blood gas sampling significantly increased the risks of missing samples in high-risk deliveries and in infants with birth asphyxia. ©2016 Foundation Acta Paediatrica. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  16. Risk of future trauma based on alcohol screening scores: A two-year prospective cohort study among US veterans (United States)


    Background Severe alcohol misuse as measured by the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test–Consumption (AUDIT-C) is associated with increased risk of future fractures and trauma-related hospitalizations. This study examined the association between AUDIT-C scores and two-year risk of any type of trauma among US Veterans Health Administration (VHA) patients and assessed whether risk varied by age or gender. Methods Outpatients (215, 924 male and 9168 female) who returned mailed AUDIT-C questionnaires were followed for 24 months in the medical record for any International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems (ICD-9) code related to trauma. The two-year prevalence of trauma was examined as a function of AUDIT-C scores, with low-level drinking (AUDIT-C 1–4) as the reference group. Men and women were examined separately, and age-stratified analyses were performed. Results Having an AUDIT-C score of 9–12 (indicating severe alcohol misuse) was associated with increased risk for trauma. Mean (SD) ages for men and women were 68.2 (11.5) and 57.2 (15.8), respectively. Age-stratified analyses showed that, for men ≤50 years, those with AUDIT-C scores ≥9 had an increased risk for trauma compared with those with AUDIT-C scores in the 1–4 range (adjusted prevalence, 25.7% versus 20.8%, respectively; OR = 1.24; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.03–1.50). For men ≥65 years with average comorbidity and education, those with AUDIT-C scores of 5–8 (adjusted prevalence, 7.9% versus 7.4%; OR = 1.16; 95% CI, 1.02–1.31) and 9–12 (adjusted prevalence 11.1% versus 7.4%; OR = 1.68; 95% CI, 1.30–2.17) were at significantly increased risk for trauma compared with men ≥65 years in the reference group. Higher AUDIT-C scores were not associated with increased risk of trauma among women. Conclusions Men with severe alcohol misuse (AUDIT-C 9–12) demonstrate an increased risk of trauma. Men ≥65 showed an increased risk

  17. Replacement tunnelled dialysis catheters for haemodialysis access: Same site, new site, or exchange — A multivariate analysis and risk score

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tapping, C.R.; Scott, P.M.; Lakshminarayan, R.; Ettles, D.F.; Robinson, G.J.


    Aim: To identify variables related to complications following tunnelled dialysis catheter (TDC) replacement and stratifying the risk to reduce morbidity in patients with end-stage renal disease. Materials and methods: One hundred and forty TDCs (Split Cath, medCOMP) were replaced in 140 patients over a 5 year period. Multiple variables were retrospectively collected and analysed to stratify the risk and to predict patients who were more likely to suffer from complications. Multivariate regression analysis was used to identify variables predictive of complications. Results: There were six immediate complications, 42 early complications, and 37 late complications. Multivariate analysis revealed that variables significantly associated to complications were: female sex (p = 0.003; OR 2.9); previous TDC in the same anatomical position in the past (p = 0.014; OR 4.1); catheter exchange (p = 0.038; OR 3.8); haemoglobin 15 s (p = 0.002; OR 4.1); and C-reactive protein >50 mg/l (p = 0.007; OR 4.6). A high-risk score, which used the values from the multivariate analysis, predicted 100% of the immediate complications, 95% of the early complications, and 68% of the late complications. Conclusion: Patients can now be scored prior to TDC replacement. A patient with a high-risk score can be optimized to reduce the chance of complications. Further prospective studies to confirm that rotating the site of TDC reduces complications are warranted as this has implications for current guidelines.

  18. Industry-specific risk models for numerical scoring of hazards and prioritization of safety measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khali, Y.F.; Johnson, K.


    Risk analysis consists of five cornerstones that have to be viewed in an holistic manner by risk practitioners of any organization regardless of the industry type or nature of its critical infrastructures. The cornerstones are hazard identification, risk assessment and consequence analysis, determination of risk management actions required to reduce risks to acceptable levels, communication of risk insights among the stake-holders, and continuous monitoring and verification to ensure sustained attainment of tolerable risk levels. Our primary objectives in this research are two fold: first, we compare and contrast a wide spectrum of current industry-specific and application-dependent semi-quantitative risk models. Secondly, based on the insights to be gained from the first task, we propose a framework for a robust risk-based approach for conducting security vulnerability assessment (SVA). Risk practitioners of critical infrastructures, such as commercial nuclear power plants, water utilities, chemical plants, transmission and distribution substations... etc., could readily use this proposed approach to classify, evaluate, and prioritize risks to support allocation of resources required to ensure protection of public health and safety. (author)

  19. Laparoscopic Roux-En-Y Gastric Bypass Improves Lipid Profile and Decreases Cardiovascular Risk: a 5-Year Longitudinal Cohort Study of 1048 Patients. (United States)

    Gero, Daniel; Favre, Lucie; Allemann, Pierre; Fournier, Pierre; Demartines, Nicolas; Suter, Michel


    Dyslipidemia is a known risk factor for cardiovascular (CV) events. The aim of the study was to assess lipid profiles and their impact on CV risk changes in a large patient cohort 5 years after Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB). All patients who underwent primary RYGB for severe obesity in our two hospitals between January 1999 and December 2009 were included. The Framingham risk score was used. One thousand and forty-eight patients were included, 791 women and 257 men. Five-year complete lipid profile was available for 77% of patients. At 5 years, mean body mass index (BMI) decreased from 45.7 ± 6 to 31 ± 5.8 kg/m 2 (p profile improved more in patients with greater weight loss (%EBMIL ≥ 50 or %TWL ≥ 25%). Assuming that all patients were non-smokers and other baseline risk factors (hypertension, diabetes) remained unchanged at 5 years, the amelioration of the lipid profile itself yielded to a 27% reduction of CV risk (p profile from the first to fifth postoperative year. This improvement translates into significantly lower CV risk from the first year after surgery.

  20. Decreased risk of stroke among 10-year survivors of breast cancer.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hooning, M.J.; Dorresteijn, L.D.A.; Aleman, B.; Kappelle, A.C.; Klijn, J.G.M.; Boogerd, W.; Leeuwen, F.E. van


    PURPOSE: To assess treatment-specific risk of cerebrovascular events in early breast cancer (BC) patients, accounting for cerebrovascular risk factors. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We studied the incidence of cerebrovascular accidents (CVA; stroke and transient ischemic attack [TIA]) in 10-year survivors

  1. Do nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs decrease the risk for Alzheimer's disease?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, K; Launer, L J; Ott, A


    Based on reports that the use of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) may reduce the risk for Alzheimer's disease (AD), we studied the cross-sectional relation between NSAID use and the risk for AD in a population-based study of disease and disability in older people. After controlling...

  2. Predictive Accuracy of Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offender Version Risk and Change Scores in Treated Canadian Aboriginal and Non-Aboriginal Sexual Offenders. (United States)

    Olver, Mark E; Sowden, Justina N; Kingston, Drew A; Nicholaichuk, Terry P; Gordon, Audrey; Beggs Christofferson, Sarah M; Wong, Stephen C P


    The present study examined the predictive properties of Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offender version (VRS-SO) risk and change scores among Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal sexual offenders in a combined sample of 1,063 Canadian federally incarcerated men. All men participated in sexual offender treatment programming through the Correctional Service of Canada (CSC) at sites across its five regions. The Static-99R was also examined for comparison purposes. In total, 393 of the men were identified as Aboriginal (i.e., First Nations, Métis, Circumpolar) while 670 were non-Aboriginal and primarily White. Aboriginal men scored significantly higher on the Static-99R and VRS-SO and had higher rates of sexual and violent recidivism; however, there were no significant differences between Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal groups on treatment change with both groups demonstrating close to a half-standard deviation of change pre and post treatment. VRS-SO risk and change scores significantly predicted sexual and violent recidivism over fixed 5- and 10-year follow-ups for both racial/ancestral groups. Cox regression survival analyses also demonstrated positive treatment changes to be significantly associated with reductions in sexual and violent recidivism among Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal men after controlling baseline risk. A series of follow-up Cox regression analyses demonstrated that risk and change score information accounted for much of the observed differences between Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal men in rates of sexual recidivism; however, marked group differences persisted in rates of general violent recidivism even after controlling for these covariates. The results support the predictive properties of VRS-SO risk and change scores with treated Canadian Aboriginal sexual offenders.

  3. Value and limitations of existing scores for the assessment of cardiovascular risk: a review for clinicians.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese


    Atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the biggest causes of death worldwide. In most people, CVD is the product of a number of causal risk factors. Several seemingly modest risk factors may, in combination, result in a much higher risk than an impressively raised single factor. For this reason, risk estimation systems have been developed to assist clinicians to assess the effects of risk factor combinations in planning management strategies. In this article, the performances of the major risk estimation systems are reviewed. Most perform usably well in populations that are similar to the one used to derive the system, and in other populations if calibrated to allow for different CVD mortality rates and different risk factor distributions. The effect of adding "new" risk factors to age, sex, smoking, lipid status, and blood pressure is usually small, but may help to appropriately reclassify some of those patients who are close to a treatment threshold to a more correct "treat\\/do not treat" category. Risk estimation in the young and old needs more research. Quantification of the hoped-for benefits of the multiple risk estimation approach in terms of improved outcomes is still needed. But, it is likely that the widespread use of such an approach will help to address the issues of both undertreatment and overtreatment.

  4. A genetic risk score of 45 coronary artery disease risk variants associates with increased risk of myocardial infarction in 6041 Danish individuals

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krarup, N T; Borglykke, A; Allin, K H


    with age as time scale was adjusted for sex, BMI, type 2 diabetes mellitus and smoking status. Analyses were also stratified either by sex or median age (below or above 45 years of age). We estimated GRS contribution to MI prediction by assessing net reclassification index (NRI) and integrated...... discrimination improvement (IDI) added to the European SCORE for 10-year MI risk prediction. RESULTS: The GRS associated significantly with risk of incident MI (allele-dependent hazard ratio (95%CI): 1.06 (1.02-1.11), p = 0.01) but not with CAD (p = 0.39). Stratification revealed association of GRS with MI...... in men (1.06 (1.01-1.12), p = 0.02) and in individuals above the median of 45.11 years of age (1.06 (1.00-1.12), p = 0.03). There was no interaction between GRS and gender (p = 0.90) or age (p = 0.83). The GRS improved neither NRI nor IDI. CONCLUSION: The GRS of 45 GWAS identified risk variants increase...

  5. Prediction of Breast and Prostate Cancer Risks in Male BRCA1 and BRCA2 Mutation Carriers Using Polygenic Risk Scores

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lecarpentier, Julie; Silvestri, Valentina; Kuchenbaecker, Karoline B.


    Purpose BRCA1/2 mutations increase the risk of breast and prostate cancer in men. Common genetic variants modify cancer risks for female carriers of BRCA1/2 mutations. We investigated-for the first time to our knowledge-associations of common genetic variants with breast and prostate cancer risks...

  6. Therapeutic implications of selecting the SCORE (European versus the D'AGOSTINO (American risk charts for cardiovascular risk assessment in hypertensive patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giné-Garriga Maria


    Full Text Available Abstract Background No comparisons have been made of scales estimating cardiovascular mortality and overall cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. The study objectives were to assess the agreement between the Framingham-D'Agostino cardiovascular risk (CVR scale and the chart currently recommended in Europe (SCORE with regard to identification of patients with high CVR, and to describe the discrepancies between them and the attendant implications for the treatment of hypertension and hyperlipidaemia. Methods A total of 474 hypertensive patients aged 40–65 years monitored in primary care were enrolled into the study. CVR was assessed using the Framingham-D'Agostino scale, which estimates the overall cardiovascular morbidity and mortality risk, and the SCORE chart, which estimates the cardiovascular mortality risk. Cardiovascular risk was considered to be high for values ≥ 20% and ≥ 5% according to the Framingham-D'Agostino and SCORE charts respectively. Kappa statistics was estimated for agreement in classification of patients with high CVR. The therapeutic recommendations in the 2007 European Guidelines on Cardiovascular Disease Prevention were followed. Results Mean patient age was 54.1 (SD 7.3, and 58.4% were males. A high CVR was found in 17.5% using the SCORE chart (25.3% males, 6.6% females and in 32.7% using the D'Agostino method (56.9% males, 12,7% females. Kappa coefficient was 0.52, and increased to 0.68 when the high CVR threshold was established at 29% according to D'Agostino. Hypertensive patients with high SCORE and non-high D'Agostino (1.7% were characterized by an older age, diabetes, and a lower atherogenic index, while the opposite situation (16.9% was associated to males, hyperlipidaemia, and a higher atherogenic index. Variables with a greater weight in discrepancies were sex and smoking. A 32.0% according to SCORE and 33.5% according to D'Agostino would be candidates to receive antihypertensive treatment, and 15.8% and

  7. Relation of the aortic stiffness with the GRACE risk score in patients with the non ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction. (United States)

    Omer, Gedikli; Gokhan, Aksan; Adem, Uzun; Sabri, Demircan; Korhan, Soylu


    Current guidelines recommend clinical risk scoring systems for the patients diagnosed and determinated treatment strategy with in Non-ST-elevation elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI). Previous studies demonstrated association between aortic elasticity properties, stiffness and severity CAD. However, the associations between Aortic stiffness, elasticity properties and clinical risk scores have not been investigated. In the present study we have evaluated the relation between the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) risk score and aortic stiffness in patients with NSTEMI. We prospectively analyzed 87 consecutive patients with NSTEMI. Aortic elastic parameter and stiffness parameter were calculated from the echocardiographically derived thoracic aortic diameters (mm/m(2)), and the measurement of pulse pressure obtained by cuff sphygmomanometry. We have categorized the patients in to two groups as low ((n = 45) (GRACE risk score ≤ 140)) and high ((n = 42) (GRACE risk score > 140)) risk group according to GRACE risk score and compare the both groups. Table 1 shows baseline characteristics of patients. Our study showed that Aortic strain was significantly low (3.5 ± 1.4, 7.9 ± 2.3 respectively, p < 0.001) and aortic stiffness index was significantly high (3.9 ± 0.38; 3 ± 0.35, respectively, p < 0.001) in the high risk group values compared to those with low risk group. The aortic stiffness index was the only independent predictor of GRACE risk score (OR: 119.390; 95% CI: 2.925-4872.8; p = 0.011) in multivariate analysis. We found a significant correlation between aortic stiffness, impaired elasticity and GRACE risk score. Aortic stiffness index was the only independent variable of the high GRACE risk score. The inclusion of aortic stiffness into the GRACE risk score could allow improved risk classification of patients with ACS at admission and this may be important in the diagnosis, follow up and treatment of the patients.

  8. Childhood exposure to green space - A novel risk-decreasing mechanism for schizophrenia? (United States)

    Engemann, Kristine; Pedersen, Carsten Bøcker; Arge, Lars; Tsirogiannis, Constantinos; Mortensen, Preben Bo; Svenning, Jens-Christian


    Schizophrenia risk has been linked to urbanization, but the underlying mechanism remains unknown. Green space is hypothesized to positively influence mental health and might mediate risk of schizophrenia by mitigating noise and particle pollution exposure, stress relief, or other unknown mechanisms. The objectives for this study were to determine if green space are associated with schizophrenia risk, and if different measures of green space associate differently with risk. We used satellite data from the Landsat program to quantify green space in a new data set for Denmark at 30×30m resolution for the years 1985-2013. The effect of green space at different ages and within different distances from each person's place of residence on schizophrenia risk was estimated using Cox regression on a very large longitudinal population-based sample of the Danish population (943,027 persons). Living at the lowest amount of green space was associated with a 1.52-fold increased risk of developing schizophrenia compared to persons living at the highest level of green space. This association remained after adjusting for known risk factors for schizophrenia: urbanization, age, sex, and socioeconomic status. The strongest protective association was observed during the earliest childhood years and closest to place of residence. This is the first nationwide population-based study to demonstrate a protective association between green space during childhood and schizophrenia risk; suggesting limited green space as a novel environmental risk factor for schizophrenia. This study supports findings from other studies highlighting positive effects of exposure to natural environments for human health. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. The association between a genetic risk score for allergy and the risk of developing allergies in childhood-Results of the WHISTLER cohort

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Arabkhazaeli, Ali; Ahmadizar, Fariba; Leusink, Maarten; Arets, Hubertus G. M.; Raaijmakers, Jan A. M.; Uiterwaal, Cuno S. P. M.; van der Ent, Cornelis K.; Maitland-van der Zee, Anke-Hilse; Vijverberg, Susanne J. H.


    Background: Several genetic variants have been associated with the susceptibility to allergic disease in adults, but it remains unclear whether these genetic variants are also associated with the onset of allergic disease early in life. The aim of this study was to develop a genetic risk score (GRS)

  10. Pathway-Specific Aggregate Biomarker Risk Score Is Associated With Burden of Coronary Artery Disease and Predicts Near-Term Risk of Myocardial Infarction and Death

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ghasemzedah, Nima; Hayek, Salim; Ko, Yi-An


    BACKGROUND: Inflammation, coagulation, and cell stress contribute to atherosclerosis and its adverse events. A biomarker risk score (BRS) based on the circulating levels of biomarkers C-reactive protein, fibrin degradation products, and heat shock protein-70 representing these 3 pathways was a st...

  11. Self perception score from zero to ten correlates well with standardized scales of adolescent self esteem, body dissatisfaction, eating disorders risk, depression, and anxiety. (United States)

    O'Dea, Jennifer A


    The ability to quickly and reliably assess mental health status would assist health workers, educators and youth workers to provide appropriate early intervention for adolescents. To investigate the validity of a simple self perception score out of ten by correlating the self perception scores of adolescents from a normal, community sample of adolescents with their scores on standardized mental health measures. Study group was 470 early adolescent students aged 11.0-14.5 years from grades 7 and 8 in two secondary schools. Self perception was self reported using a score of zero to ten points, and the scores were then correlated with scores on the Harter Self Perception Profile, Beck Junior Depression, Speilberger State and Trait Anxiety and the Eating Disorders Inventory. A High Risk group (self perception adolescents also had poor self esteem and risk for depression, anxiety, and eating disorders. Self perception scores correlated positively with self esteem and self concept subscales and it was negatively associated with depression, state and trait anxiety, and EDI scores. Of the 15.1% high risk adolescents in the overall sample, 78% scored below the group average on the mean of all Harter Self Concept scores; 70% scored above average for Beck Depression; 64% and 74% scored above average on Speilberger State/Trait Anxiety respectively; 80% scored higher than the average on the group mean EDI. A self perception score from zero to ten can be a simple and accurate way of gaining an initial insight into the current mental health status of adolescents.

  12. Post-bronchoscopy pneumonia in patients suffering from lung cancer: Development and validation of a risk prediction score. (United States)

    Takiguchi, Hiroto; Hayama, Naoki; Oguma, Tsuyoshi; Harada, Kazuki; Sato, Masako; Horio, Yukihiro; Tanaka, Jun; Tomomatsu, Hiromi; Tomomatsu, Katsuyoshi; Takihara, Takahisa; Niimi, Kyoko; Nakagawa, Tomoki; Masuda, Ryota; Aoki, Takuya; Urano, Tetsuya; Iwazaki, Masayuki; Asano, Koichiro


    The incidence, risk factors, and consequences of pneumonia after flexible bronchoscopy in patients with lung cancer have not been studied in detail. We retrospectively analyzed the data from 237 patients with lung cancer who underwent diagnostic bronchoscopy between April 2012 and July 2013 (derivation sample) and 241 patients diagnosed between August 2013 and July 2014 (validation sample) in a tertiary referral hospital in Japan. A score predictive of post-bronchoscopy pneumonia was developed in the derivation sample and tested in the validation sample. Pneumonia developed after bronchoscopy in 6.3% and 4.1% of patients in the derivation and validation samples, respectively. Patients who developed post-bronchoscopy pneumonia needed to change or cancel their planned cancer therapy more frequently than those without pneumonia (56% vs. 6%, ppneumonia, which we added to develop our predictive score. The incidence of pneumonia associated with scores=0, 1, and ≥2 was 0, 3.7, and 13.4% respectively in the derivation sample (p=0.003), and 0, 2.9, and 9.7% respectively in the validation sample (p=0.016). The incidence of post-bronchoscopy pneumonia in patients with lung cancer was not rare and associated with adverse effects on the clinical course. A simple 3-point predictive score identified patients with lung cancer at high risk of post-bronchoscopy pneumonia prior to the procedure. Copyright © 2017 The Japanese Respiratory Society. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. [Risk scores for the development of venous thromboembolism in ambulatory patients and in patients hospitalized for acute medical disease]. (United States)

    Junod, A


    The recognition of an increased risk of VTE following surgery has initiated a similar investigation in: 1) Ambulatory subjects. In this group, the Qthrombosis score has identified 8 to 11 risk factors. The incidence of VTE is of the order of 0,15%/year. 2) The patients admitted to hospital for an acute medical disease. Nine scores are available for analysis. Results are difficult to interpret because of confusing factors: the inclusion of symptomatic VTE only or both symptomatic and asymptomatic VTE; the uncontrolled prescription of thromboprophylaxis. VTE incidence over 3 months varies between 15 and 0,5%, but is around 1% in the most recent studies. New studies, with a more rigorous methodological approach, are needed.

  14. A Polygenic Risk Score of glutamatergic SNPs associated with schizophrenia predicts attentional behavior and related brain activity in healthy humans. (United States)

    Rampino, Antonio; Taurisano, Paolo; Fanelli, Giuseppe; Attrotto, Mariateresa; Torretta, Silvia; Antonucci, Linda Antonella; Miccolis, Grazia; Pergola, Giulio; Ursini, Gianluca; Maddalena, Giancarlo; Romano, Raffaella; Masellis, Rita; Di Carlo, Pasquale; Pignataro, Patrizia; Blasi, Giuseppe; Bertolino, Alessandro


    Multiple genetic variations impact on risk for schizophrenia. Recent analyses by the Psychiatric Genomics Consortium (PGC2) identified 128 SNPs genome-wide associated with the disorder. Furthermore, attention and working memory deficits are core features of schizophrenia, are heritable and have been associated with variation in glutamatergic neurotransmission. Based on this evidence, in a sample of healthy volunteers, we used SNPs associated with schizophrenia in PGC2 to construct a Polygenic-Risk-Score (PRS) reflecting the cumulative risk for schizophrenia, along with a Polygenic-Risk-Score including only SNPs related to genes implicated in glutamatergic signaling (Glu-PRS). We performed Factor Analysis for dimension reduction of indices of cognitive performance. Furthermore, both PRS and Glu-PRS were used as predictors of cognitive functioning in the domains of Attention, Speed of Processing and Working Memory. The association of the Glu-PRS on brain activity during the Variable Attention Control (VAC) task was also explored. Finally, in a second independent sample of healthy volunteers we sought to confirm the association between the Glu-PRS and both performance in the domain of Attention and brain activity during the VAC.We found that performance in Speed of Processing and Working Memory was not associated with any of the Polygenic-Risk-Scores. The Glu-PRS, but not the PRS was associated with Attention and brain activity during the VAC. The specific effects of Glu-PRS on Attention and brain activity during the VAC were also confirmed in the replication sample.Our results suggest a pathway specificity in the relationship between genetic risk for schizophrenia, the associated cognitive dysfunction and related brain processing. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. and ECNP. All rights reserved.

  15. The accuracy of polyuria, polydipsia, polyphagia, and Indian Diabetes Risk Score in adults screened for diabetes mellitus type-II


    Shivshakti D Pawar; Poonam Thakur; B K Radhe; Harshal Jadhav; Vivek Behere; Vikrant Pagar


    Context: The World Health Organization report suggests that over 19% of the world's diabetic population currently resides in India. Unfortunately, >50% of the diabetics in India are unaware about their diabetic status. In the poor income country like India, it is essential to use cost-effective methods for screening for diabetes, and traditionally using three classical symptoms and Indian Diabetes Risk Score (IDRS) tool is helpful but, data regarding their diagnostic accuracy is very less. Ob...

  16. Aggregate risk score based on markers of inflammation, cell stress, and coagulation is an independent predictor of adverse cardiovascular outcomes. (United States)

    Eapen, Danny J; Manocha, Pankaj; Patel, Riyaz S; Hammadah, Muhammad; Veledar, Emir; Wassel, Christina; Nanjundappa, Ravi A; Sikora, Sergey; Malayter, Dylan; Wilson, Peter W F; Sperling, Laurence; Quyyumi, Arshed A; Epstein, Stephen E


    This study sought to determine an aggregate, pathway-specific risk score for enhanced prediction of death and myocardial infarction (MI). Activation of inflammatory, coagulation, and cellular stress pathways contribute to atherosclerotic plaque rupture. We hypothesized that an aggregate risk score comprised of biomarkers involved in these different pathways-high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (CRP), fibrin degradation products (FDP), and heat shock protein 70 (HSP70) levels-would be a powerful predictor of death and MI. Serum levels of CRP, FDP, and HSP70 were measured in 3,415 consecutive patients with suspected or confirmed coronary artery disease (CAD) undergoing cardiac catheterization. Survival analyses were performed with models adjusted for established risk factors. Median follow-up was 2.3 years. Hazard ratios (HRs) for all-cause death and MI based on cutpoints were as follows: CRP ≥3.0 mg/l, HR: 1.61; HSP70 >0.625 ng/ml, HR; 2.26; and FDP ≥1.0 μg/ml, HR: 1.62 (p statistic and net reclassification improved (p < 0.0001) with the addition of the biomarker score. An aggregate score based on serum levels of CRP, FDP, and HSP70 is a predictor of future risk of death and MI in patients with suspected or known CAD. Copyright © 2013 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. The risk of second hip fracture is decreased with compliant and persistent use of bisphosphonates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Louise; Vestergaard, Peter; Petersen, Karin Dam

    experience a 19% increased mortality within the first year following hip fractures. Furthermore, studies have shown that within 10 years after first hip fracture 40% will experience another hip fracture. The risk for second hip fracture is markedly increased, initiating at a relative risk of 11.8 within...... the first month after fracture and does not normalise until 15 years later. Fracture prevention programs have focused on identifying patients at risk of secondary low energy trauma fractures. The secondary prevention programs for fractures begin immediately after the first fracture, through identification...... of risk factors and initiate pharmaceutical treatment. The aim of this study was to estimate the potential benefits from alendronate treatment for secondary low energy trauma fracture patients in Denmark, compared to no pharmaceutical treatment for this group of patients. METHODS: A Markov model...

  18. Comparing LCZ696 with enalapril according to baseline risk using the MAGGIC and EMPHASIS-HF risk scores: an analysis of mortality and morbidity in PARADIGM-HF. (United States)

    Simpson, Joanne; Jhund, Pardeep S; Silva Cardoso, Jose; Martinez, Felipe; Mosterd, Arend; Ramires, Felix; Rizkala, Adel R; Senni, Michele; Squire, Iain; Gong, Jianjian; Lefkowitz, Martin P; Shi, Victor C; Desai, Akshay S; Rouleau, Jean L; Swedberg, Karl; Zile, Michael R; McMurray, John J V; Packer, Milton; Solomon, Scott D


    Although most patients in the PARADIGM-HF (Prospective Comparison of ARNI With ACEI to Determine Impact on Global Mortality and Morbidity in Heart Failure) trial had mild symptoms, there is a poor correlation between reported functional limitation and prognosis in heart failure. The aim of this study was to examine the spectrum of risk in PARADIGM-HF and the effect of LCZ696 across that spectrum. This study analyzed rates of the primary composite outcome of cardiovascular death or heart failure hospitalization, its components, and all-cause mortality using the MAGGIC (Meta-Analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure) and EMPHASIS-HF (Eplerenone in Mild Patients Hospitalization and Survival Study in Heart Failure) risk scores to categorize patients. The authors determined whether risk, on the basis of these scores, modified the treatment effect of LCZ696. The complete MAGGIC risk score was available for 8,375 of the 8,399 patients in PARADIGM-HF. The median MAGGIC score was 20 (IQR: 16 to 24). An increase of 1 point was associated with a 6% increased risk for the primary endpoint (p PARADIGM-HF patients had mild symptoms, many were at high risk for adverse outcomes and obtained a large absolute benefit from LCZ696, compared with enalapril, over a relatively short treatment period. LCZ696's benefit was consistent across the spectrum of risk. (PARADIGM-HF trial [Prospective Comparison of ARNI With ACEI to Determine Impact on Global Mortality and Morbidity in Heart Failure]; NCT01035255). Copyright © 2015 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Validation of the Framingham general cardiovascular risk score in a multiethnic Asian population: a retrospective cohort study. (United States)

    Chia, Yook Chin; Gray, Sarah Yu Weng; Ching, Siew Mooi; Lim, Hooi Min; Chinna, Karuthan


    This study aims to examine the validity of the Framingham general cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk chart in a primary care setting. This is a 10-year retrospective cohort study. A primary care clinic in a teaching hospital in Malaysia. 967 patients' records were randomly selected from patients who were attending follow-up in the clinic. Baseline demographic data, history of diabetes and smoking, blood pressure (BP), and serum lipids were captured from patient records in 1998. Each patient's Framingham CVD score was computed from these parameters. All atherosclerotic CVD events occurring between 1998 and 2007 were counted. In 1998, mean age was 57 years with 33.8% men, 6.1% smokers, 43.3% diabetics and 59.7% hypertensive. Median BP was 140/80 mm Hg and total cholesterol 6.0 mmol/L (1.3). The predicted median Framingham general CVD risk score for the study population was 21.5% (IQR 1.2-30.0) while the actual CVD events that occurred in the 10 years was 13.1% (127/967). The median CVD points for men was 30.0, giving them a CVD risk of more than 30%; for women it is 18.5, a CVD risk of 21.5%. Our study found that the Framingham general CVD risk score to have moderate discrimination with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.63. It also discriminates well for Malay (AUC 0.65, p=0.01), Chinese (AUC 0.60, p=0.03), and Indians (AUC 0.65, p=0.001). There was good calibration with Hosmer-Lemeshow test χ(2)=3.25, p=0.78. Taking into account that this cohort of patients were already on treatment, the Framingham General CVD Risk Prediction Score predicts fairly accurately for men and overestimates somewhat for women. In the absence of local risk prediction charts, the Framingham general CVD risk prediction chart is a reasonable alternative for use in a multiethnic group in a primary care setting. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to

  20. Credit risk assessment model for Jordanian commercial banks: Neural scoring approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hussain Ali Bekhet


    Full Text Available Despite the increase in the number of non-performing loans and competition in the banking market, most of the Jordanian commercial banks are reluctant to use data mining tools to support credit decisions. Artificial neural networks represent a new family of statistical techniques and promising data mining tools that have been used successfully in classification problems in many domains. This paper proposes two credit scoring models using data mining techniques to support loan decisions for the Jordanian commercial banks. Loan application evaluation would improve credit decision effectiveness and control loan office tasks, as well as save analysis time and cost. Both accepted and rejected loan applications, from different Jordanian commercial banks, were used to build the credit scoring models. The results indicate that the logistic regression model performed slightly better than the radial basis function model in terms of the overall accuracy rate. However, the radial basis function was superior in identifying those customers who may default.

  1. Predicting high risk of exacerbations in bronchiectasis: the E-FACED score

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martinez-Garcia MA


    Full Text Available Martinez-Garcia MA,1,2 Athanazio RA,3 Girón R,4 Máiz-Carro L,5 de la Rosa D,6 Olveira C,7 de Gracia J,2,8 Vendrell M,9 Prados-Sánchez C,10 Gramblicka G,11 Corso Pereira M,12 Lundgren FL,13 Fernandes De Figueiredo M,14 Arancibia F,15 Rached SZ3 1Pulmonary Service, Polytechnic and University La Fe Hospital, Valencia, Spain; 2CIBERes, CIBER de Enfermedades Respiratorias. Madrid. Spain; 3Pulmonary Division, Heart Institute (Incor, Hospital das Clínicas da Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo; 4Pneumology Service, Hospital La Princesa, 5Pneumology Service, Hospital Ramón y Cajal, Madrid, 6Pneumology Unit, Hospital Plató, Barcelona, 7Pneumology, Málaga Regional University Hospital, Instituto de Biomedicina de Málaga (IBIMA, Málaga University, Spain; 8Pneumology Service, Hospital Vall d’Hebron, Barcelona, 9Bronchiectasis Group IDIBGI, Dr. Trueta University Hospital. UdG. Ciberes CB06/06/0030, 10Unidad de Fibrosis Quística y Bronquiectasias. Hospital Universitario La Paz. Madrid. Spain; 11Pneumology Service, Hospital del Tórax Dr A Cetrángolo, Buenos Aires, Argentina; 12Pneumology Service, Universidade Estadual de Campinas UNICAMP, Sao Paulo, 13Pneumology Service, Hospital Octávio de Freitas, Recife, 14Pneumology Service, Hospital de Messejana, Fortaleza, Brazil; 15Pneumology Service, Instituto Nacional del Tórax, Santiago de Chile, Chile Background: Although the FACED score has demonstrated a great prognostic capacity in bronchiectasis, it does not include the number or severity of exacerbations as a separate variable, which is important in the natural history of these patients.Objective: Construction and external validation of a new index, the E-FACED, to evaluate the predictive capacity of exacerbations and mortality.Methods: The new score was constructed on the basis of the complete cohort for the construction of the original FACED score, while the external validation was undertaken with six cohorts from three

  2. Decreased modulation by the risk level on the brain activation during decision making in adolescents with internet gaming disorder

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xin eQi


    Full Text Available Greater impulse and risk-taking and reduced decision-making ability were reported as the main behavioral impairments in individuals with Internet gaming disorder (IGD, which has become a serious mental health issue worldwide. However, it is not clear to date how the risk level modulates brain activity during the decision-making process in IGD individuals. In this study, 23 adolescents with IGD and 24 healthy controls (HCs without IGD were recruited, and the Balloon Analog Risk Task (BART was used in a functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI experiment to evaluate the modulation of the risk level (the probability of balloon explosion on brain activity during risky decisionmaking in IGD adolescents. Reduced modulation of the risk level on the activation of the right dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC during the active BART was found in IGD group compared to the HCs. In the IGD group, there was a significant negative correlation between the risk-related DLPFC activation during the active BART and the Barratt impulsivity scale (BIS-11 scores, which were significantly higher in IGD group compared with the HCs. Our study demonstrated that, as a critical decision-making-related brain region, the right DLPFC is less sensitive to risk in IGD adolescents compared with the HCs, which may contribute to the higher impulsivity level in IGD adolescents.

  3. A model including sarcopenia surpasses the MELD score in predicting waiting list mortality in cirrhotic liver transplant candidates : A competing risk analysis in a national cohort

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Vugt, Jeroen Laurens Ad; Alferink, Louise Johanna Maria; Buettner, Stefan; Gaspersz, Marcia Patricia; Bot, Daphne; Murad, Sarwa Darwish; Feshtali, Shirin; van Ooijen, Peter Martinus Adranius; Polak, Wojciech Grzegorz; Porte, Robert Jan; van Hoek, Bart; van den Berg, Aad Pieter; Metselaar, Herold Johnny; IJzermans, Jan Nicolaas Maria

    BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Frail patients with low MELD scores may be underprioritised. Low skeletal muscle mass (i.e. sarcopenia) has been identified as risk factor for waiting list mortality and a recent study proposed to incorporate sarcopenia in the MELD score (i.e. MELD-Sarcopenia score). We aimed to

  4. Entecavir treatment does not eliminate the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis B: limited role for risk scores in Caucasians. (United States)

    Arends, Pauline; Sonneveld, Milan J; Zoutendijk, Roeland; Carey, Ivana; Brown, Ashley; Fasano, Massimo; Mutimer, David; Deterding, Katja; Reijnders, Jurriën G P; Oo, Ye; Petersen, Jörg; van Bömmel, Florian; de Knegt, Robert J; Santantonio, Teresa; Berg, Thomas; Welzel, Tania M; Wedemeyer, Heiner; Buti, Maria; Pradat, Pierre; Zoulim, Fabien; Hansen, Bettina; Janssen, Harry L A


    Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk-scores may predict HCC in Asian entecavir (ETV)-treated patients. We aimed to study risk factors and performance of risk scores during ETV treatment in an ethnically diverse Western population. We studied all HBV monoinfected patients treated with ETV from 11 European referral centres within the VIRGIL Network. A total of 744 patients were included; 42% Caucasian, 29% Asian, 19% other, 10% unknown. At baseline, 164 patients (22%) had cirrhosis. During a median follow-up of 167 (IQR 82-212) weeks, 14 patients developed HCC of whom nine (64%) had cirrhosis at baseline. The 5-year cumulative incidence rate of HCC was 2.1% for non-cirrhotic and 10.9% for cirrhotic patients (peliminate the risk of HCC. Discriminatory performance of HCC risk scores was limited, particularly in Caucasians, at baseline and during therapy. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to

  5. The Siesta Habit is Associated with a Decreased Risk of Rupture of Intracranial Aneurysms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huibin Kang


    Full Text Available BackgroundPrevious studies have examined an association between the siesta habit and hypertension, as well as coronary heart disease. However, the relationship between a siesta and the risk of rupture of an intracranial aneurysm (IA has not yet been established. We aimed to investigate the effects of a siesta on the risk of rupture of IAs.MethodsWe prospectively enrolled consecutive patients diagnosed with IAs at our hospital between January 2016 and December 2016. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis were performed to identify independent risk factors associated with IA rupture.ResultsWe studied 581 consecutive patients with 514 unruptured and 120 ruptured aneurysms. Univariate analysis demonstrated that hypertension, hyperlipidemia, diabetes mellitus, cigarette smoking, location, size, as well as shape and aspect ratio were associated with the risk of rupture of IAs. Multivariate analysis identified hypertension [odds ratio (OR 1.68, 95% confidence interval (CI 1.03–2.73], hyperlipidemia (OR 0.25, 95% CI 0.08–0.72, current cigarette smoking ≥20 cigarettes/day (d (OR 3.48, 95% CI 1.63–7.47, siesta (siesta time <1 h, OR 0.49, 95% CI 0.24–0.98 and siesta time ≥1 h, OR 0.32, 95% CI 0.19–0.57, location of largest aneurysm on the anterior communicating and internal carotid-posterior communicating artery (PCOM (anterior communicating artery OR 16.27, 95% CI 7.40–35.79 and PCOM OR 11.21, 95% CI 5.15–24.43, and size of aneurysm ≥7 mm (OR 2.19, 95% CI 1.21–3.97 as independent strong risk factors associated with risk of aneurysm rupture.ConclusionIn the present study, we found that a habitual siesta is a new predictive factor to assess the risk of rupture of an IA. We found the siesta habit may reduce the risk of aneurysm rupture. We also found that hypertension, hyperlipidemia, cigarette smoking, location, and size of aneurysm were associated with the risk of rupture of IAs.

  6. Development and validation of a bedside risk score for MRSA among patients hospitalized with complicated skin and skin structure infections

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zilberberg Marya D


    Full Text Available Abstract Background Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA is a frequent cause of complicated skin and skin structure infections (cSSSI. Patients with MRSA require different empiric treatment than those with non-MRSA infections, yet no accurate tools exist to aid in stratifying the risk for a MRSA cSSSI. We sought to develop a simple bedside decision rule to tailor empiric coverage more accurately. Methods We conducted a large multicenter (N=62 hospitals retrospective cohort study in a US-based database between April 2005 and March 2009. All adult initial