WorldWideScience

Sample records for risk response dynamics

  1. The response dynamics of preferential choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koop, Gregory J; Johnson, Joseph G

    2013-12-01

    The ubiquity of psychological process models requires an increased degree of sophistication in the methods and metrics that we use to evaluate them. We contribute to this venture by capitalizing on recent work in cognitive science analyzing response dynamics, which shows that the bearing information processing dynamics have on intended action is also revealed in the motor system. This decidedly "embodied" view suggests that researchers are missing out on potential dependent variables with which to evaluate their models-those associated with the motor response that produces a choice. The current work develops a method for collecting and analyzing such data in the domain of decision making. We first validate this method using widely normed stimuli from the International Affective Picture System (Experiment 1), and demonstrate that curvature in response trajectories provides a metric of the competition between choice options. We next extend the method to risky decision making (Experiment 2) and develop predictions for three popular classes of process model. The data provided by response dynamics demonstrate that choices contrary to the maxim of risk seeking in losses and risk aversion in gains may be the product of at least one "online" preference reversal, and can thus begin to discriminate amongst the candidate models. Finally, we incorporate attentional data collected via eye-tracking (Experiment 3) to develop a formal computational model of joint information sampling and preference accumulation. In sum, we validate response dynamics for use in preferential choice tasks and demonstrate the unique conclusions afforded by response dynamics over and above traditional methods. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Dynamical systems probabilistic risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Denman, Matthew R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Ames, Arlo Leroy [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2014-03-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is the primary tool used to risk-inform nuclear power regulatory and licensing activities. Risk-informed regulations are intended to reduce inherent conservatism in regulatory metrics (e.g., allowable operating conditions and technical specifications) which are built into the regulatory framework by quantifying both the total risk profile as well as the change in the risk profile caused by an event or action (e.g., in-service inspection procedures or power uprates). Dynamical Systems (DS) analysis has been used to understand unintended time-dependent feedbacks in both industrial and organizational settings. In dynamical systems analysis, feedback loops can be characterized and studied as a function of time to describe the changes to the reliability of plant Structures, Systems and Components (SSCs). While DS has been used in many subject areas, some even within the PRA community, it has not been applied toward creating long-time horizon, dynamic PRAs (with time scales ranging between days and decades depending upon the analysis). Understanding slowly developing dynamic effects, such as wear-out, on SSC reliabilities may be instrumental in ensuring a safely and reliably operating nuclear fleet. Improving the estimation of a plant's continuously changing risk profile will allow for more meaningful risk insights, greater stakeholder confidence in risk insights, and increased operational flexibility.

  3. Dynamic jump intensities and risk premiums

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christoffersen, Peter; Ornthanalai, Chayawat; Jacobs, Kris

    2012-01-01

    We build a new class of discrete-time models that are relatively easy to estimate using returns and/or options. The distribution of returns is driven by two factors: dynamic volatility and dynamic jump intensity. Each factor has its own risk premium. The models significantly outperform standard...... models without jumps when estimated on S&P500 returns. We find very strong support for time-varying jump intensities. Compared to the risk premium on dynamic volatility, the risk premium on the dynamic jump intensity has a much larger impact on option prices. We confirm these findings using joint...

  4. Risk importance measures in the dynamic flowgraph methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tyrväinen, T.

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents new risk importance measures applicable to a dynamic reliability analysis approach with multi-state components. Dynamic reliability analysis methods are needed because traditional methods, such as fault tree analysis, can describe system's dynamical behaviour only in limited manner. Dynamic flowgraph methodology (DFM) is an approach used for analysing systems with time dependencies and feedback loops. The aim of DFM is to identify root causes of a top event, usually representing the system's failure. Components of DFM models are analysed at discrete time points and they can have multiple states. Traditional risk importance measures developed for static and binary logic are not applicable to DFM as such. Some importance measures have previously been developed for DFM but their ability to describe how components contribute to the top event is fairly limited. The paper formulates dynamic risk importance measures that measure the importances of states of components and take the time-aspect of DFM into account in a logical way that supports the interpretation of results. Dynamic risk importance measures are developed as generalisations of the Fussell-Vesely importance and the risk increase factor. -- Highlights: • New risk importance measures are developed for the dynamic flowgraph methodology. • Dynamic risk importance measures are formulated for states of components. • An approach to handle failure modes of a component in DFM is presented. • Dynamic risk importance measures take failure times into account. • Component's influence on the system's reliability can be analysed in detail

  5. Risk and response

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Warner, F [Cremer and Warner (UK)

    1981-01-01

    A discussion of nuclear power and public acceptability can quite properly begin with a general consideration of the nature of response to risk. Response follows perception, and builds up from the individual through group response to the judgement of society expressed in governmental decisions on what is acceptable. Various types of risk, and public reaction, are discussed.

  6. Risk management through dynamic technical specifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klopp, George T.; Petersen, Thomas A.

    2004-01-01

    The wide deployment of plant specific probabilistic risk assessments for nuclear power plants has provided the means to effect a fresh risk management perspective and a fresh, risk based, regulatory outlook on nuclear power. There has been a great deal of conversation on risk based regulation within the U. S. nuclear power industry but, curiously, very little on effective risk management. This paper proposes a means to link the two subjects through the plant Technical Specifications. A revised concept for Technical Specifications is suggested which is based on deterministic analyses and probabilistic risk assessments for each plant. The revised Technical Specifications would consider, on a real-time basis, the exact state of the plant in terms of the status of key components and systems. It would depict current plant risk levels and compare those levels to the desired and limiting (alert/action) levels. It would advise the plant operator on the risk impact of proposed actions through a simple query system and illustrate the impact of such actions on plant status relative to designated risk values. The basis for the proposed approach lies in realistic deterministic plant analyses and probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) deployment tools being developed, in parallel, by a number of parties in the U.S. today. These PRAs are based primarily on the existing plant responses to Generic Letter 88-20, 'Individual Plant Examinations' (IPEs). Each of these tools allows the plant operator to input, on a real-time basis, the status of key equipment and systems. The tools then provide explicit illustrations of dependency effects; updated, 'real-time' risk status indications such as core damage frequency; and, in some cases, allow the operator to assess the risk impact of removing from service selected components for maintenance or testing. These systems generally operate on personal computers and provide nearly instantaneous responses to plant queries. Moving from these tools to

  7. An Influence of Gas Explosions on Dynamic Responses of a Single Degree of Freedom Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ki-Yeob Kang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Explosion risk analysis (ERA is widely used to derive the dimensioning of accidental loads for design purposes. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD simulations contribute a key part of an ERA and predict possible blast consequences in a hazardous area. Explosion pressures can vary based on the model geometry, the explosion intensity, and explosion scenarios. Dynamic responses of structures under these explosion loads are dependent on a blast wave profile with respect to the magnitude of pressure, duration, and impulse in both positive and negative phases. Understanding the relationship between explosion load profiles and dynamic responses of the target area is important to mitigate the risk of explosion and perform structural design optimization. In the present study, the results of more than 3,000 CFD simulations were considered, and 1.6 million output files were analyzed using a visual basic for applications (VBA tool developed to characterize representative loading shapes. Dynamic response of a structure was investigated in both time and frequency domains using the Fast Fourier Transform (FFT algorithm. In addition, the effects of the residual wave and loading velocity were studied in this paper.

  8. A FTA-based method for risk decision-making in emergency response

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liu, Yang; Li, Hongyan

    2014-01-01

    Decision-making problems in emergency response are usually risky and uncertain due to the limited decision data and possible evolvement of emergency scenarios. This paper focuses on a risk decisionmaking problem in emergency response with several distinct characteristics including dynamic...... evolvement process of emergency, multiple scenarios, and impact of response actions on the emergency scenarios. A method based on Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) is proposed to solve the problem. By analyzing the evolvement process of emergency, the Fault Tree (FT) is constructed to describe the logical relations...

  9. Distributed Dynamic Condition Response Structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hildebrandt, Thomas; Mukkamala, Raghava Rao

    We present distributed dynamic condition response structures as a declarative process model inspired by the workflow language employed by our industrial partner and conservatively generalizing labelled event structures. The model adds to event structures the possibility to 1) finitely specify...... as a labelled transition system. Exploration of the relationship between dynamic condition response structures and traditional models for concurrency, application to more complex scenarios, and further extensions of the model is left to future work....

  10. Methodology for combining dynamic responses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cudlin, R.; Hosford, S.; Mattu, R.; Wichman, K.

    1978-09-01

    The NRC has historically required that the structural/mechanical responses due to various accident loads and loads caused by natural phenomena, (such as earthquakes) be combined when analyzing structures, systems, and components important to safety. Several approaches to account for the potential interaction of loads resulting from accidents and natural phenomena have been used. One approach, the so-called absolute or linear summation (ABS) method, linearly adds the peak structural responses due to the individual dynamic loads. In general, the ABS method has also reflected the staff's conservative preference for the combination of dynamic load responses. A second approach, referred to as SRSS, yields a combined response equal to the square root of the sum of the squares of the peak responses due to the individual dynamic loads. The lack of a physical relationship between some of the loads has raised questions as to the proper methodology to be used in the design of nuclear power plants. An NRR Working Group was constituted to examine load combination methodologies and to develop a recommendation concerning criteria or conditions for their application. Evaluations of and recommendations on the use of the ABS and SRSS methods are provided in the report

  11. Dynamic Bayesian Networks for Context-Aware Fall Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gregory Koshmak

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Fall incidents among the elderly often occur in the home and can cause serious injuries affecting their independent living. This paper presents an approach where data from wearable sensors integrated in a smart home environment is combined using a dynamic Bayesian network. The smart home environment provides contextual data, obtained from environmental sensors, and contributes to assessing a fall risk probability. The evaluation of the developed system is performed through simulation. Each time step is represented by a single user activity and interacts with a fall sensors located on a mobile device. A posterior probability is calculated for each recognized activity or contextual information. The output of the system provides a total risk assessment of falling given a response from the fall sensor.

  12. Do Sustainable Stocks Offer Diversification Benefits for Conventional Portfolios? An Empirical Analysis of Risk Spillovers and Dynamic Correlations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehmet Balcilar

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper explores the potential diversification benefits of socially responsible investments for conventional stock portfolios by examining the risk spillovers and dynamic correlations between conventional and sustainability stock indexes from a number of regions. We observe significant unidirectional volatility transmissions from conventional to sustainable equities, suggesting that the criteria applied for socially responsible investments do not necessarily shield these securities from common market shocks. While significant dynamic correlations are observed between sustainable and conventional stocks, particularly in Europe, the analysis of both in- and out-of-sample dynamic portfolios suggests that supplementing conventional stock portfolios with sustainable counterparts improves the risk/return profile of stock portfolios in all regions. The findings overall suggest that sustainable investments can indeed provide diversification gains for conventional stock portfolios globally.

  13. Lead-lag relationships between stock and market risk within linear response theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borysov, Stanislav; Balatsky, Alexander

    2015-03-01

    We study historical correlations and lead-lag relationships between individual stock risks (standard deviation of daily stock returns) and market risk (standard deviation of daily returns of a market-representative portfolio) in the US stock market. We consider the cross-correlation functions averaged over stocks, using historical stock prices from the Standard & Poor's 500 index for 1994-2013. The observed historical dynamics suggests that the dependence between the risks was almost linear during the US stock market downturn of 2002 and after the US housing bubble in 2007, remaining at that level until 2013. Moreover, the averaged cross-correlation function often had an asymmetric shape with respect to zero lag in the periods of high correlation. We develop the analysis by the application of the linear response formalism to study underlying causal relations. The calculated response functions suggest the presence of characteristic regimes near financial crashes, when individual stock risks affect market risk and vice versa. This work was supported by VR 621-2012-2983.

  14. Risk-Averse Evolutionary Game Model of Aviation Joint Emergency Response

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Pan

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available We study effects of risk-averse attitude of both participators in aviation joint emergency response on the coevolution of cooperation mechanisms and individual preferences between airport and nonprofit organization. First, based on the current aviation joint emergency mechanism in China, we put forward two mechanisms to select the joint nonprofit organization, including reputation cooperation and bidding competition. Meanwhile, we consider two preferences including altruism and selfishness. Then we build replicator dynamics equations using the theory of conditional value-at-risk (CVaR taking risk aversion attitude into account. Finally, we introduce the factor of government and give all participators some suggestions. We show that the risk-averse attitude of the other game participator affects the one participator’s decision and the effects subject to some parameters.

  15. Risk and response

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Warner, F W

    1980-12-01

    A discussion of nuclear power and public acceptability can quite properly begin with a general consideration of the nature of response to risk. Response follows perception and builds up from individual through group response to the judgement of society expressed in governmental decisions on what is acceptable. The subject is analysed in some detail, with examples.

  16. Microbial phylogeny determines transcriptional response of resistome to dynamic composting processes

    OpenAIRE

    Wang, Cheng; Dong, Da; Strong, P. J.; Zhu, Weijing; Ma, Zhuang; Qin, Yong; Wu, Weixiang

    2017-01-01

    Background Animal manure is a reservoir of antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) that pose a potential health risk globally, especially for resistance to the antibiotics commonly used in livestock production (such as tetracycline, sulfonamide, and fluoroquinolone). Currently, the effects of biological treatment (composting) on the transcriptional response of manure ARGs and their microbial hosts are not well characterized. Composting is a dynamic process that consists of four distinct phases tha...

  17. Who is responsible for food risks? The influence of risk type and risk characteristics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Leikas, Sointu; Lindeman, Marjaana; Roininen, Katariina

    2009-01-01

    The influence of food risk type and risk characteristics on food risk responsibility judgments was studied. A total of 1270 Finnish consumers judged their personal responsibility and the responsibility of three non-personal targets, industry, retail, and society, in relation to six food...

  18. Microbial phylogeny determines transcriptional response of resistome to dynamic composting processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Cheng; Dong, Da; Strong, P J; Zhu, Weijing; Ma, Zhuang; Qin, Yong; Wu, Weixiang

    2017-08-16

    Animal manure is a reservoir of antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) that pose a potential health risk globally, especially for resistance to the antibiotics commonly used in livestock production (such as tetracycline, sulfonamide, and fluoroquinolone). Currently, the effects of biological treatment (composting) on the transcriptional response of manure ARGs and their microbial hosts are not well characterized. Composting is a dynamic process that consists of four distinct phases that are distinguished by the temperature resulting from microbial activity, namely the mesophilic, thermophilic, cooling, and maturing phases. In this study, changes of resistome expression were determined and related to active microbiome profiles during the dynamic composting process. This was achieved by integrating metagenomic and time series metatranscriptomic data for the evolving microbial community during composting. Composting noticeably reduced the aggregated expression level of the manure resistome, which primarily consisted of genes encoding for tetracycline, vancomycin, fluoroquinolone, beta-lactam, and aminoglycoside resistance, as well as efflux pumps. Furthermore, a varied transcriptional response of resistome to composting at the ARG levels was highlighted. The expression of tetracycline resistance genes (tetM-tetW-tetO-tetS) decreased during composting, where distinctive shifts in the four phases of composting were related to variations in antibiotic concentration. Composting had no effect on the expression of sulfonamide and fluoroquinolone resistance genes, which increased slightly during the thermophilic phase and then decreased to initial levels. As indigenous populations switched greatly throughout the dynamic composting, the core resistome persisted and their reservoir hosts' composition was significantly correlated with dynamic active microbial phylogenetic structure. Hosts for sulfonamide and fuoroquinolone resistance genes changed notably in phylognetic structure

  19. Enhancing response coordination through the assessment of response network structural dynamics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alireza Abbasi

    Full Text Available Preparing for intensifying threats of emergencies in unexpected, dangerous, and serious natural or man-made events, and consequent management of the situation, is highly demanding in terms of coordinating the personnel and resources to support human lives and the environment. This necessitates prompt action to manage the uncertainties and risks imposed by such extreme events, which requires collaborative operation among different stakeholders (i.e., the personnel from both the state and local communities. This research aims to find a way to enhance the coordination of multi-organizational response operations. To do so, this manuscript investigates the role of participants in the formed coordination response network and also the emergence and temporal dynamics of the network. By analyzing an inter-personal response coordination operation to an extreme bushfire event, the networks' and participants' structural change is evaluated during the evolution of the operation network over four time durations. The results reveal that the coordination response network becomes more decentralized over time due to the high volume of communication required to exchange information. New emerging communication structures often do not fit the developed plans, which stress the need for coordination by feedback in addition to by plan. In addition, we find that the participant's brokering role in the response operation network identifies a formal and informal coordination role. This is useful for comparison of network structures to examine whether what really happens during response operations complies with the initial policy.

  20. Adverse risk: a 'dynamic interaction model of patient moving and handling'.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffiths, Howard

    2012-09-01

    The aim of the present study was to examine patient adverse events associated with sub-optimal patient moving and handling. Few studies have examined the patient's perspective on adverse risk during manual handling episodes. A narrative review was undertaken to develop the 'Dynamic Interaction Model of Patient Moving and Handling' in an orthopaedic rehabilitation setting, using peer-reviewed publications published in English between 1992 and 2010. Five predominant themes emerged from the narrative review: 'patient's need to know about analgesics prior to movement/ambulation'; 'comfort care'; 'mastery of and acceptance of mobility aids/equipment'; 'psychological adjustment to fear of falling'; and 'the need for movement to prevent tissue pressure damage'. Prevalence of discomfort, pain, falls, pressure sores together with a specific Direct Instrument Nursing Observation (DINO) tool enable back care advisers to measure quality of patient manual handling. Evaluation of patients' use of mobility aids together with fear of falling may be important in determining patients' recovery trajectory. Clinical governance places a responsibility on nurse managers to consider quality of care for their service users. 'Dynamic Interaction Model of Nurse-Patient Moving and Handling' provides back care advisers, clinical risk managers and occupational health managers with an alternative perspective to clinical risk and occupational risk. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  1. Cognitive modeling and dynamic probabilistic simulation of operating crew response to complex system accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chang, Y.H.J.; Mosleh, A.

    2007-01-01

    This is the last in a series of five papers that discuss the Information Decision and Action in Crew (IDAC) context for human reliability analysis (HRA) and example application. The model is developed to probabilistically predict the responses of the control room operating crew in nuclear power plants during an accident, for use in probabilistic risk assessments (PRA). The operator response spectrum includes cognitive, emotional, and physical activities during the course of an accident. This paper describes a dynamic PRA computer simulation program, accident dynamics simulator (ADS), developed in part to implement the IDAC model. This paper also provides a detailed example of implementing a simpler version of IDAC, compared with the IDAC model discussed in the first four papers of this series, to demonstrate the practicality of integrating a detailed cognitive HRA model within a dynamic PRA framework

  2. Combining operational models and data into a dynamic vessel risk assessment tool for coastal regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandes, R.; Braunschweig, F.; Lourenço, F.; Neves, R.

    2016-02-01

    The technological evolution in terms of computational capacity, data acquisition systems, numerical modelling and operational oceanography is supplying opportunities for designing and building holistic approaches and complex tools for newer and more efficient management (planning, prevention and response) of coastal water pollution risk events. A combined methodology to dynamically estimate time and space variable individual vessel accident risk levels and shoreline contamination risk from ships has been developed, integrating numerical metocean forecasts and oil spill simulations with vessel tracking automatic identification systems (AIS). The risk rating combines the likelihood of an oil spill occurring from a vessel navigating in a study area - the Portuguese continental shelf - with the assessed consequences to the shoreline. The spill likelihood is based on dynamic marine weather conditions and statistical information from previous accidents. The shoreline consequences reflect the virtual spilled oil amount reaching shoreline and its environmental and socio-economic vulnerabilities. The oil reaching shoreline is quantified with an oil spill fate and behaviour model running multiple virtual spills from vessels along time, or as an alternative, a correction factor based on vessel distance from coast. Shoreline risks can be computed in real time or from previously obtained data. Results show the ability of the proposed methodology to estimate the risk properly sensitive to dynamic metocean conditions and to oil transport behaviour. The integration of meteo-oceanic + oil spill models with coastal vulnerability and AIS data in the quantification of risk enhances the maritime situational awareness and the decision support model, providing a more realistic approach in the assessment of shoreline impacts. The risk assessment from historical data can help finding typical risk patterns ("hot spots") or developing sensitivity analysis to specific conditions, whereas real

  3. Dynamic response function and large-amplitude dissipative collective motion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu Xizhen; Zhuo Yizhong; Li Zhuxia; Sakata, Fumihiko.

    1993-05-01

    Aiming at exploring microscopic dynamics responsible for the dissipative large-amplitude collective motion, the dynamic response and correlation functions are introduced within the general theory of nuclear coupled-master equations. The theory is based on the microscopic theory of nuclear collective dynamics which has been developed within the time-dependent Hartree-Fock (TDHF) theory for disclosing complex structure of the TDHF-manifold. A systematic numerical method for calculating the dynamic response and correlation functions is proposed. By performing numerical calculation for a simple model Hamiltonian, it is pointed out that the dynamic response function gives an important information in understanding the large-amplitude dissipative collective motion which is described by an ensemble of trajectories within the TDHF-manifold. (author)

  4. A Scalable Distribution Network Risk Evaluation Framework via Symbolic Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Kai; Liu, Jian; Liu, Kaipei; Tan, Tianyuan

    2015-01-01

    Background Evaluations of electric power distribution network risks must address the problems of incomplete information and changing dynamics. A risk evaluation framework should be adaptable to a specific situation and an evolving understanding of risk. Methods This study investigates the use of symbolic dynamics to abstract raw data. After introducing symbolic dynamics operators, Kolmogorov-Sinai entropy and Kullback-Leibler relative entropy are used to quantitatively evaluate relationships between risk sub-factors and main factors. For layered risk indicators, where the factors are categorized into four main factors – device, structure, load and special operation – a merging algorithm using operators to calculate the risk factors is discussed. Finally, an example from the Sanya Power Company is given to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed method. Conclusion Distribution networks are exposed and can be affected by many things. The topology and the operating mode of a distribution network are dynamic, so the faults and their consequences are probabilistic. PMID:25789859

  5. Nonlinear Dynamic Response of Compliant Journal Bearings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Glavatskih S.

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the dynamic response of the compliant tilting pad journal bearings subjected to synchronous excitation. Bearing compliance is affected by the properties of pad liner and pad support geometry. Different unbalance eccentricities are considered. It is shown that bearing dynamic response is non-linear. Journal orbit complexity increases with pad compliance though the orbit amplitudes are marginally affected at low loads. At high loads, the journal is forced to operate outside the bearing clearance. The polymer liner reduces the maximum oil film pressure by a factor of 2 when compared to the white metal liner. The nonlinear dynamic response of compliant tilting pad journal bearings is thoroughly discussed.

  6. Risk and responsibility: a complex and evolving relationship.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kermisch, Céline

    2012-03-01

    This paper analyses the nature of the relationship between risk and responsibility. Since neither the concept of risk nor the concept of responsibility has an unequivocal definition, it is obvious that there is no single interpretation of their relationship. After introducing the different meanings of responsibility used in this paper, we analyse four conceptions of risk. This allows us to make their link with responsibility explicit and to determine if a shift in the connection between risk and responsibility can be outlined. (1) In the engineer's paradigm, the quantitative conception of risk does not include any concept of responsibility. Their relationship is indirect, the locus of responsibility being risk management. (2) In Mary Douglas' cultural theory, risks are constructed through the responsibilities they engage. (3) Rayner and (4) Wolff go further by integrating forms of responsibility in the definition of risk itself. Analysis of these four frameworks shows that the concepts of risk and responsibility are increasingly intertwined. This tendency is reinforced by increasing public awareness and a call for the integration of a moral dimension in risk management. Therefore, we suggest that a form of virtue-responsibility should also be integrated in the concept of risk. © Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2010

  7. Prevention of oil spill from shipping by modelling of dynamic risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eide, Magnus S; Endresen, Oyvind; Breivik, Oyvind; Brude, Odd Willy; Ellingsen, Ingrid H; Røang, Kjell; Hauge, Jarle; Brett, Per Olaf

    2007-10-01

    This paper presents a new dynamic environmental risk model, with intended use within a new, dynamical approach for risk based ship traffic prioritisation. The philosophy behind this newly developed approach is that shipping risk can be reduced by directing efforts towards ships and areas that have been identified as high priority (high risk), prior to a potential accident. The risk model proposed in this paper separates itself from previous models by drawing on available information on dynamic factors and by focusing on the ship's surroundings. The model estimates the environmental risk of drift grounding accidents for oil tankers in real time and in forecast mode, combining the probability of grounding with oil spill impact on the coastline. Results show that the inherent dynamic risk introduced by an oil tanker sailing along the North Norwegian coast depends, not surprisingly, significantly upon wind and ocean currents, as well as tug position and cargo oil type. Results of this study indicate that the risk model is well suited for real time risk assessment, and effectively separates low risk and high risk situations. The model is well suited as a tool to prioritise oil tankers and coastal segments. This enables dynamic risk based positioning of tugs, using both real-time and projected risk, for effective support in case of a drifting ship situation.

  8. Conceptualizing a Dynamic Fall Risk Model Including Intrinsic Risks and Exposures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klenk, Jochen; Becker, Clemens; Palumbo, Pierpaolo; Schwickert, Lars; Rapp, Kilan; Helbostad, Jorunn L; Todd, Chris; Lord, Stephen R; Kerse, Ngaire

    2017-11-01

    Falls are a major cause of injury and disability in older people, leading to serious health and social consequences including fractures, poor quality of life, loss of independence, and institutionalization. To design and provide adequate prevention measures, accurate understanding and identification of person's individual fall risk is important. However, to date, the performance of fall risk models is weak compared with models estimating, for example, cardiovascular risk. This deficiency may result from 2 factors. First, current models consider risk factors to be stable for each person and not change over time, an assumption that does not reflect real-life experience. Second, current models do not consider the interplay of individual exposure including type of activity (eg, walking, undertaking transfers) and environmental risks (eg, lighting, floor conditions) in which activity is performed. Therefore, we posit a dynamic fall risk model consisting of intrinsic risk factors that vary over time and exposure (activity in context). eHealth sensor technology (eg, smartphones) begins to enable the continuous measurement of both the above factors. We illustrate our model with examples of real-world falls from the FARSEEING database. This dynamic framework for fall risk adds important aspects that may improve understanding of fall mechanisms, fall risk models, and the development of fall prevention interventions. Copyright © 2017 AMDA – The Society for Post-Acute and Long-Term Care Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Short- and long-term behavioural, physiological and stoichiometric responses to predation risk indicate chronic stress and compensatory mechanisms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Dievel, Marie; Janssens, Lizanne; Stoks, Robby

    2016-06-01

    Prey organisms are expected to use different short- and long-term responses to predation risk to avoid excessive costs. Contrasting both types of responses is important to identify chronic stress responses and possible compensatory mechanisms in order to better understand the full impact of predators on prey life history and population dynamics. Using larvae of the damselfly Enallagma cyathigerum, we contrasted the effects of short- and long-term predation risk, with special focus on consequences for body stoichiometry. Under short-term predation risk, larvae reduced growth rate, which was associated with a reduced food intake, increased metabolic rate and reduced glucose content. Under long-term predation risk, larvae showed chronic predator stress as indicated by persistent increases in metabolic rate and reduced food intake. Despite this, larvae were able to compensate for the short-term growth reduction under long-term predation risk by relying on physiological compensatory mechanisms, including reduced energy storage. Only under long-term predation risk did we observe an increase in body C:N ratio, as predicted under the general stress paradigm (GSP). Although this was caused by a predator-induced decrease in N content, there was no associated increase in C content. These stoichiometric changes could not be explained by GSP responses because, under chronic predation risk, there was no decrease in N-rich proteins or increase in C-rich fat and sugars; instead glycogen decreased. Our results highlight the importance of compensatory mechanisms and the value of explicitly integrating physiological mechanisms to obtain insights into the temporal dynamics of non-consumptive effects, including effects on body stoichiometry.

  10. Dynamic risk analysis using bow-tie approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khakzad, Nima; Khan, Faisal; Amyotte, Paul

    2012-01-01

    Accident probability estimation is a common and central step to all quantitative risk assessment methods. Among many techniques available, bow-tie model (BT) is very popular because it represent the accident scenario altogether including causes and consequences. However, it suffers a static structure limiting its application in real-time monitoring and probability updating which are key factors in dynamic risk analysis. The present work is focused on using BT approach in a dynamic environment in which the occurrence probability of accident consequences changes. In this method, on one hand, failure probability of primary events of BT, leading to the top event, are developed using physical reliability models, and constantly revised as physical parameters (e.g., pressure, velocity, dimension, etc) change. And, on the other hand, the failure probability of safety barriers of the BT are periodically updated using Bayes’ theorem as new information becomes available over time. Finally, the resulting, updated BT is used to estimate the posterior probability of the consequences which in turn results in an updated risk profile. - Highlights: ► A methodology is proposed to make bow-tie method adapted for dynamic risk analysis. ► Physical reliability models are used to revise the top event. ► Bayes’ theorem is used to update the probability of safety barriers. ► The number of accidents in sequential time intervals is used to form likelihood function. ► The risk profile is updated for varying physical parameters and for different times.

  11. Pricing Chinese Convertible Bonds with Dynamic Credit Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ping Li

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available To price convertible bonds more precisely, least squares Monte Carlo (LSM method is used in this paper for its advantage in handling the dependence of derivatives on the path, and dynamic credit risk is used to replace the fixed one to make the value of convertible bonds reflect the real credit risk. In the empirical study, we price convertible bonds based on static credit risk and dynamic credit risk, respectively. Empirical results indicate that the ICBC convertible bond has been overpriced, resulting from the underestimation of credit risk. In addition, when there is an issue of dividend, the conversion price will change in China's convertible bonds, while it does not change in the international convertible bonds. So we also empirically study the difference between the convertible bond's prices by assuming whether the conversion price changes or not.

  12. Racing risk, gendering responsibility: a qualitative study of how South African students talk about sexual risk and responsibility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Riet, Mary; Nicholson, Tamaryn Jane

    2014-01-01

    Individuals' perceptions of risk have implications for whether and how they engage with protective strategies. This study investigated how sexual risk, specifically HIV and pregnancy and responsibility for these risks were constructed in discussions across five groups of youth in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. The qualitative study used focus groups and interviews with a sample of 28 tertiary level students and 7 peri-urban youth. The constructions of risk intersected with raced and gendered narratives around sexual risk and responsibility. These constructions were used by the participants to assign and displace responsibility for the risks of HIV and pregnancy, rendering some groups immune to these risks. This constitutes a form of stigmatisation and also has implications for participants' prevention practices.

  13. Risk taking and risk sharing does responsibility matter?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cettolin, E.; Tausch, F.

    2013-01-01

    Risk sharing arrangements diminish individuals’ vulnerability to probabilistic events that negatively affect their financial situation. This is because risk sharing implies redistribution, as lucky individuals support the unlucky ones. We hypothesize that responsibility for risky choices decreases

  14. Risk taking and risk sharing : does responsibility matter?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cettolin, Elena; Tausch, Franziska

    Risk sharing arrangements diminish individuals’ vulnerability to probabilistic events that negatively affect their financial situation. This is because risk sharing implies redistribution, as lucky individuals support the unlucky ones. We hypothesize that responsibility for risky choices decreases

  15. Dynamic occupational risk model for offshore operations in harsh environments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Song, Guozheng; Khan, Faisal; Wang, Hangzhou; Leighton, Shelly; Yuan, Zhi; Liu, Hanwen

    2016-01-01

    The expansion of offshore oil exploitation into remote areas (e.g., Arctic) with harsh environments has significantly increased occupational risks. Among occupational accidents, slips, trips and falls from height (STFs) account for a significant portion. Thus, a dynamic risk assessment of the three main occupational accidents is meaningful to decrease offshore occupational risks. Bow-tie Models (BTs) were established in this study for the risk analysis of STFs considering extreme environmental factors. To relax the limitations of BTs, Bayesian networks (BNs) were developed based on BTs to dynamically assess risks of STFs. The occurrence and consequence probabilities of STFs were respectively calculated using BTs and BNs, and the obtained probabilities verified BNs' rationality and advantage. Furthermore, the probability adaptation for STFs was accomplished in a specific scenario with BNs. Finally, posterior probabilities of basic events were achieved through diagnostic analysis, and critical basic events were analyzed based on their posterior likelihood to cause occupational accidents. The highlight is systematically analyzing STF accidents for offshore operations and dynamically assessing their risks considering the harsh environmental factors. This study can guide the allocation of prevention resources and benefit the safety management of offshore operations. - Highlights: • A novel dynamic risk model for occupational accidents. • First time consideration of harsh environment in occupational accident modeling. • A Bayesian network based model for risk management strategies.

  16. Risk, responsibility and political action

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Halskov Jensen, Elisabeth

    2004-01-01

    action was transformed into a moral respon-sibility on the part of the national and European politicians, constrained by economic and technical-scientific reality and represented as taking place only in the public sphere. KEY WORDS: CDA, World Risk Society, argumentation, media discourse, argumentation......ABSTRACT. This paper presents an argumentative case study of the discursive representation of risk, responsibility and political action in the Spanish media. The study uses a critical discourse analytical approach combined with theories on risk, agency and political communication in the media....... It is argued that an application of the Toulmin model is useful for eliciting systematic overall repre-sentations of responsibility and agency in environmental crises such as the mad cow crisis as well as for revealing relationships between social domains such as moral, politics, economics and science...

  17. Voltage Controlled Dynamic Demand Response

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bhattarai, Bishnu Prasad; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte; Mahat, Pukar

    2013-01-01

    Future power system is expected to be characterized by increased penetration of intermittent sources. Random and rapid fluctuations in demands together with intermittency in generation impose new challenges for power balancing in the existing system. Conventional techniques of balancing by large...... central or dispersed generations might not be sufficient for future scenario. One of the effective methods to cope with this scenario is to enable demand response. This paper proposes a dynamic voltage regulation based demand response technique to be applied in low voltage (LV) distribution feeders....... An adaptive dynamic model has been developed to determine composite voltage dependency of an aggregated load on feeder level. Following the demand dispatch or control signal, optimum voltage setting at the LV substation is determined based on the voltage dependency of the load. Furthermore, a new technique...

  18. Amygdala temporal dynamics: temperamental differences in the timing of amygdala response to familiar and novel faces

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shelton Richard C

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Inhibited temperament - the predisposition to respond to new people, places or things with wariness or avoidance behaviors - is associated with increased risk for social anxiety disorder and major depression. Although the magnitude of the amygdala's response to novelty has been identified as a neural substrate of inhibited temperament, there may also be differences in temporal dynamics (latency, duration, and peak. We hypothesized that persons with inhibited temperament would have faster responses to novel relative to familiar neutral faces compared to persons with uninhibited temperament. We used event-related functional magnetic resonance imaging to measure the temporal dynamics of the blood oxygen level dependent (BOLD response to both novel and familiar neutral faces in participants with inhibited or uninhibited temperament. Results Inhibited participants had faster amygdala responses to novel compared with familiar faces, and both longer and greater amygdala response to all faces. There were no differences in peak response. Conclusion Faster amygdala response to novelty may reflect a computational bias that leads to greater neophobic responses and represents a mechanism for the development of social anxiety.

  19. Large portfolio risk management and optimal portfolio allocation with dynamic elliptical copulas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jin Xisong

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Previous research has focused on the importance of modeling the multivariate distribution for optimal portfolio allocation and active risk management. However, existing dynamic models are not easily applied to high-dimensional problems due to the curse of dimensionality. In this paper, we extend the framework of the Dynamic Conditional Correlation/Equicorrelation and an extreme value approach into a series of Dynamic Conditional Elliptical Copulas. We investigate risk measures such as Value at Risk (VaR and Expected Shortfall (ES for passive portfolios and dynamic optimal portfolios using Mean-Variance and ES criteria for a sample of US stocks over a period of 10 years. Our results suggest that (1 Modeling the marginal distribution is important for dynamic high-dimensional multivariate models. (2 Neglecting the dynamic dependence in the copula causes over-aggressive risk management. (3 The DCC/DECO Gaussian copula and t-copula work very well for both VaR and ES. (4 Grouped t-copulas and t-copulas with dynamic degrees of freedom further match the fat tail. (5 Correctly modeling the dependence structure makes an improvement in portfolio optimization with respect to tail risk. (6 Models driven by multivariate t innovations with exogenously given degrees of freedom provide a flexible and applicable alternative for optimal portfolio risk management.

  20. A 'dynamic' landscape of fear: prey responses to spatiotemporal variations in predation risk across the lunar cycle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palmer, M S; Fieberg, J; Swanson, A; Kosmala, M; Packer, C

    2017-11-01

    Ambiguous empirical support for 'landscapes of fear' in natural systems may stem from failure to consider dynamic temporal changes in predation risk. The lunar cycle dramatically alters night-time visibility, with low luminosity increasing hunting success of African lions. We used camera-trap data from Serengeti National Park to examine nocturnal anti-predator behaviours of four herbivore species. Interactions between predictable fluctuations in night-time luminosity and the underlying risk-resource landscape shaped herbivore distribution, herding propensity and the incidence of 'relaxed' behaviours. Buffalo responded least to temporal risk cues and minimised risk primarily through spatial redistribution. Gazelle and zebra made decisions based on current light levels and lunar phase, and wildebeest responded to lunar phase alone. These three species avoided areas where likelihood of encountering lions was high and changed their behaviours in risky areas to minimise predation threat. These patterns support the hypothesis that fear landscapes vary heterogeneously in both space and time. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

  1. Optimal Risk Reduction in the Railway Industry by Using Dynamic Programming

    OpenAIRE

    Michael Todinov; Eberechi Weli

    2013-01-01

    The paper suggests for the first time the use of dynamic programming techniques for optimal risk reduction in the railway industry. It is shown that by using the concept ‘amount of removed risk by a risk reduction option’, the problem related to optimal allocation of a fixed budget to achieve a maximum risk reduction in the railway industry can be reduced to an optimisation problem from dynamic programming. For n risk reduction options and size of the available risk reduction budget B (expres...

  2. Dynamic response of structures with uncertain parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cai, Z H; Liu, Y; Yang, Y

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, an interval method for the dynamic response of structures with uncertain parameters is presented. In the presented method, the structural physical and geometric parameters and loads can be considered as interval variables. The structural stiffness matrix, mass matrix and loading vectors are described as the sum of two parts corresponding to the deterministic matrix and the uncertainty of the interval parameters. The interval problem is then transformed into approximate deterministic one. The Laplace transform is used to transform the equations of the dynamic system into linear algebra equations. The Maclaurin series expansion is applied on the modified dynamic equation in order to deal with the linear algebra equations. Numerical examples are studied by the presented interval method for the cases with and without damping. The upper bound and lower bound of the dynamic responses of the examples are compared, and it shows that the presented method is effective.

  3. Managing dynamic epidemiological risks through trade

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horan, Richard D.; Fenichel, Eli P.; Finnoff, David; Wolf, Christopher A.

    2015-01-01

    There is growing concern that trade, by connecting geographically isolated regions, unintentionally facilitates the spread of invasive pathogens and pests – forms of biological pollution that pose significant risks to ecosystem and human health. We use a bioeconomic framework to examine whether trade always increases private risks, focusing specifically on pathogen risks from live animal trade. When the pathogens have already established and traders bear some private risk, we find two results that run counter to the conventional wisdom on trade. First, uncertainty about the disease status of individual animals held in inventory may increase the incentives to trade relative to the disease-free case. Second, trade may facilitate reduced long-run disease prevalence among buyers. These results arise because disease risks are endogenous due to dynamic feedback processes involving valuable inventories, and markets facilitate the management of private risks that producers face with or without trade. PMID:25914431

  4. Risk assessment by dynamic representation of vulnerability, exploitation, and impact

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cam, Hasan

    2015-05-01

    Assessing and quantifying cyber risk accurately in real-time is essential to providing security and mission assurance in any system and network. This paper presents a modeling and dynamic analysis approach to assessing cyber risk of a network in real-time by representing dynamically its vulnerabilities, exploitations, and impact using integrated Bayesian network and Markov models. Given the set of vulnerabilities detected by a vulnerability scanner in a network, this paper addresses how its risk can be assessed by estimating in real-time the exploit likelihood and impact of vulnerability exploitation on the network, based on real-time observations and measurements over the network. The dynamic representation of the network in terms of its vulnerabilities, sensor measurements, and observations is constructed dynamically using the integrated Bayesian network and Markov models. The transition rates of outgoing and incoming links of states in hidden Markov models are used in determining exploit likelihood and impact of attacks, whereas emission rates help quantify the attack states of vulnerabilities. Simulation results show the quantification and evolving risk scores over time for individual and aggregated vulnerabilities of a network.

  5. Nested Dynamic Condition Response Graphs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hildebrandt, Thomas; Mukkamala, Raghava Rao; Slaats, Tijs

    2012-01-01

    We present an extension of the recently introduced declarative process model Dynamic Condition Response Graphs ( DCR Graphs) to allow nested subgraphs and a new milestone relation between events. The extension was developed during a case study carried out jointly with our industrial partner...

  6. Risk and response

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Warner, F

    1980-12-01

    There is little correlation between public response to perceived risks and the life-expectancy statistics for hazardous occupations. Case studies show that the public reacts more strongly to conflicting information from the warnings of experts and the media, giving more credence to individual situations than to statistical probabilities. The impact of a large-scale accident intensifies the perception of risk even though the situation may be safer over time. These factors affect the public's ability to accept nuclear power and its insistence on public debate, which may shift from the area of facts and documentation to that of values. Decision makers may need to compromise by shifting expenditures to actions that involve low levels of risk. 2 references, 1 figure, 2 tables. (DCK)

  7. Chaotic dynamic behavior analysis and control for a financial risk system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Xiao-Dan; Zheng Yuan; Liu Xiang-Dong; Liu Cheng

    2013-01-01

    According to the risk management process of financial markets, a financial risk dynamic system is constructed in this paper. Through analyzing the basic dynamic properties, we obtain the conditions for stability and bifurcation of the system based on Hopf bifurcation theory of nonlinear dynamic systems. In order to make the system's chaos disappear, we select the feedback gain matrix to design a class of chaotic controller. Numerical simulations are performed to reveal the change process of financial market risk. It is shown that, when the parameter of risk transmission rate changes, the system gradually comes into chaos from the asymptotically stable state through bifurcation. The controller can then control the chaos effectively

  8. Application of dynamic response analysis to JET heat pulse data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Griguoli, A.; Sips, A.C.C.

    1993-09-01

    The plasma dynamic response can be used to study transport processes in a tokamak plasma. A method has been developed for the application of dynamic response analysis to study perturbations away from the plasma equilibrium. In this report perturbations on the electron temperature following a sawtooth collapse in the center of the plasma are considered. The method has been used to find mathematical description of a series of heat pulses at the Joint European Torus project (JET). From the plasma dynamic response, the time constants which characterise the heat pulse are obtained. These time constants are compared to the transport coefficients found in previous analysis of the JET heat pulse data. Various methods are discussed for applying dynamic response analysis to JET heat pulse data. (author)

  9. The dynamics of change in decision making under risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Milićević Aleksandar

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The goal of this study was to investigate the dynamics of decision making under risk. In three experiments this dynamics have been explored with respect to probability of outcome and with respect to frame, i.e. the way the outcomes of the alternatives have been specified. The process of decision making was explored within a framework of expected utility and Prospect theory. The outcomes of alternatives as well as their probabilities were quantitatively specified (so that the expected value of a risk alternative was equal to the value of a non-risk alternative. The results of experiments indicate that the attitude towards risk (risk-proneness vs. risk-averseness depends on the outcome probability and the way the outcomes were specified (i.e. positive/negative frame. It was also demonstrated that content strongly affects the choices made in decision making. This outcome is somewhat unexpected and requires additional empirical evaluation.

  10. Optimization of multi-response dynamic systems integrating multiple ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    regression and Taguchi's dynamic signal-to-noise ratio concept ..... algorithm for dynamic multi-response optimization based on goal programming approach. .... problem-solving confirmation, if no grave infringement of model suppositions is ...

  11. Large Portfolio Risk Management and Optimal Portfolio Allocation with Dynamic Copulas

    OpenAIRE

    Thorsten Lehnert; Xisong Jin

    2011-01-01

    Previous research focuses on the importance of modeling the multivariate distribution for optimal portfolio allocation and active risk management. However, available dynamic models are not easily applied for high-dimensional problems due to the curse of dimensionality. In this paper, we extend the framework of the Dynamic Conditional Correlation/Equicorrelation and an extreme value approach into a series of Dynamic Conditional Elliptical Copulas. We investigate risk measures like Value at Ris...

  12. DYNAMIC HYBRIDS UNDER SOLVENCY II: RISK ANALYSIS AND MODIFICATION POSSIBILITIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Maier

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we investigate the new and standardized European system of supervisory called Solvency II. In essence, asymmetric distribution of information between policyholder and insurer triggered this new regulation which aims at better protecting policyholders. Its three-pillar model is about to challenge both, insurers as well as policyholders. The first pillar includes quantitative aspects, the second pillar contains qualitative aspects and the third pillar comprises market transparency and reporting obligations. Underwriting risks, the default risk of a bank and market risks can be identified for the dynamic hybrid. Solvency II covers all these risks in the first pillar and insurers shall deposit sufficient risk-bearing capital. In our analysis, we first identify the dynamic hybrid specific risks under the Solvency II regime und then develop product modifications to reduce this risk.

  13. Plasma turbulence. Structure formation, selection rule, dynamic response and dynamics transport

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ito, Sanae I.

    2010-01-01

    The five-year project of Grant-in-Aid for Specially Promoted Research entitled general research on the structure formation and selection rule in plasma turbulence had brought many outcomes. Based on these outcomes, the Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (S) program entitled general research on dynamic response and dynamic transport in plasma turbulence has started. In the present paper, the state-of-the-art of the research activities on the structure formation, selection rule and dynamics in plasma turbulence are reviewed with reference to outcomes of these projects. (author)

  14. Dynamical response of vibrating ferromagnets

    CERN Document Server

    Gaganidze, E; Ziese, M

    2000-01-01

    The resonance frequency of vibrating ferromagnetic reeds in a homogeneous magnetic field can be substantially modified by intrinsic and extrinsic field-related contributions. Searching for the physical reasons of the field-induced resonance frequency change and to study the influence of the spin glass state on it, we have measured the low-temperature magnetoelastic behavior and the dynamical response of vibrating amorphous and polycrystalline ferromagnetic ribbons. We show that the magnetoelastic properties depend strongly on the direction of the applied magnetic field. The influence of the re-entrant spin glass transition on these properties is discussed. We present clear experimental evidence that for applied fields perpendicular to the main area of the samples the behavior of ferromagnetic reeds is rather independent of the material composition and magnetic state, exhibiting a large decrease of the resonance frequency. This effect can be very well explained with a model based on the dynamical response of t...

  15. Dynamic lateral response of suction caissons

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Latini, Chiara; Zania, Varvara

    2017-01-01

    Deeper water installations of offshore wind turbines may be supported by jacket structures. This study investigates the dynamic response of suction caissons for jackets by analysing 3D finite element models in the frequency domain. The numerical modelling was firstly validated by analytical...... solutions for pile foundations. Groups of crucial dimensionless parameters related to the soil profile and the foundation geometry are identified and their effects on the response of suction caissons are studied. Static stiffness coefficients are presented in a form of mathematical formulas obtained...... by fitting the numerical results, pertaining foundations with different slenderness ratios and embedded in different soil profiles. Sensitivity of the dynamic impedances of suction caissons on the skirt length was showed in this study. Moreover, the results for the suction caissons indicated that the overall...

  16. Dynamic response of a typical synchrotron magnet/girder assembly

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jendrzejczyk, J.A.; Smith, R.K.; Vogt, M.E.

    1993-06-01

    In the Advanced Photon Source, the synchrotron booster ring accelerates positrons to the required energy level of 7 GeV. The positrons are then injected into the storage ring where they continue to orbit for 10--15 h. The storage ring quadrupoles have very stringent vibration criteria that must be satisfied to ensure that beam emittance growth is within acceptable limits, viz., <10%. Because the synchrotron booster ring is not operated after particle insertion into the storage ring, its vibration response is not a critical issue relative to the performance of the storage ring beam. Nevertheless, the synchrotron pulses at a frequency of 2 Hz, and if a vibration response frequency of the synchrotron magnet/girder assembly were to coincide with the pulsation frequency or its near harmonics, large-amplitude motion could result, with the effect that it could compromise the operation of the synchrotron. Due to the complex dynamics of the synchrotron magnet/girder assembly, it is necessary to measure the dynamic response of a prototypic assembly and its components to ensure that the inherent dynamic response frequencies are not equal to 2 Hz or any near harmonics. Dynamic-response measurement of the synchrotron girder assembly and component magnets is the subject of this report

  17. A Novel Dynamic Algorithm for IT Outsourcing Risk Assessment Based on Transaction Cost Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guodong Cong

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available With the great risk exposed in IT outsourcing, how to assess IT outsourcing risk becomes a critical issue. However, most of approaches to date need to further adapt to the particular complexity of IT outsourcing risk for either falling short in subjective bias, inaccuracy, or efficiency. This paper proposes a dynamic algorithm of risk assessment. It initially forwards extended three layers (risk factors, risks, and risk consequences of transferring mechanism based on transaction cost theory (TCT as the framework of risk analysis, which bridges the interconnection of components in three layers with preset transferring probability and impact. Then, it establishes an equation group between risk factors and risk consequences, which assures the “attribution” more precisely to track the specific sources that lead to certain loss. Namely, in each phase of the outsourcing lifecycle, both the likelihood and the loss of each risk factor and those of each risk are acquired through solving equation group with real data of risk consequences collected. In this “reverse” way, risk assessment becomes a responsive and interactive process with real data instead of subjective estimation, which improves the accuracy and alleviates bias in risk assessment. The numerical case proves the effectiveness of the algorithm compared with the approach forwarded by other references.

  18. Dynamic alarm response procedures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martin, J.; Gordon, P.; Fitch, K.

    2006-01-01

    The Dynamic Alarm Response Procedure (DARP) system provides a robust, Web-based alternative to existing hard-copy alarm response procedures. This paperless system improves performance by eliminating time wasted looking up paper procedures by number, looking up plant process values and equipment and component status at graphical display or panels, and maintenance of the procedures. Because it is a Web-based system, it is platform independent. DARP's can be served from any Web server that supports CGI scripting, such as Apache R , IIS R , TclHTTPD, and others. DARP pages can be viewed in any Web browser that supports Javascript and Scalable Vector Graphics (SVG), such as Netscape R , Microsoft Internet Explorer R , Mozilla Firefox R , Opera R , and others. (authors)

  19. Network information analysis reveals risk perception transmission in a behaviour-influenza dynamics system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liao, C-M; You, S-H; Cheng, Y-H

    2015-01-01

    Influenza poses a significant public health burden worldwide. Understanding how and to what extent people would change their behaviour in response to influenza outbreaks is critical for formulating public health policies. We incorporated the information-theoretic framework into a behaviour-influenza (BI) transmission dynamics system in order to understand the effects of individual behavioural change on influenza epidemics. We showed that information transmission of risk perception played a crucial role in the spread of health-seeking behaviour throughout influenza epidemics. Here a network BI model provides a new approach for understanding the risk perception spread and human behavioural change during disease outbreaks. Our study allows simultaneous consideration of epidemiological, psychological, and social factors as predictors of individual perception rates in behaviour-disease transmission systems. We suggest that a monitoring system with precise information on risk perception should be constructed to effectively promote health behaviours in preparation for emerging disease outbreaks.

  20. Comparison of cardiovascular response to combined static-dynamic effort, postprandial dynamic effort and dynamic effort alone in patients with chronic ischemic heart disease

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hung, J.; McKillip, J.; Savin, W.; Magder, S.; Kraus, R.; Houston, N.; Goris, M.; Haskell, W.; DeBusk, R.

    1982-01-01

    The cardiovascular responses to combined static-dynamic effort, postprandial dynamic effort and dynamic effort alone were evaluated by upright bicycle ergometry during equilibrium-gated blood pool scintigraphy in 24 men, mean age 59 +/- 8 years, with chronic ischemic heart disease. Combined static-dynamic effort and the postprandial state elicited a peak cardiovascular response similar to that of dynamic effort alone. Heart rate, intraarterial systolic and diastolic pressures, rate-pressure product and ejection fraction were similar for the three test conditions at the onset of ischemia and at peak effort. The prevalence and extent of exercise-induced ischemic left ventricular dysfunction, ST-segment depression, angina pectoris and ventricular ectopic activity were also similar during the three test conditions. Direct and indirect measurements of systolic and diastolic blood pressure were highly correlated. The onset of ischemic ST-segment depression and angina pectoris correlated as strongly with heart rate alone as with the rate-pressure product during all three test conditions. The cardiovascular response to combined static-dynamic effort and to postprandial dynamic effort becomes more similar to that of dynamic effort alone as dynamic effort reaches a symptom limit. If significant ischemic and arrhythmic abnormalities are absent during symptom-limited dynamic exercise testing, they are unlikely to appear during combined static-dynamic or postprandial dynamic effort

  1. Dynamic asset allocation and downside-risk aversion

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A.B. Berkelaar (Arjan); R.R.P. Kouwenberg (Roy)

    2000-01-01

    textabstractThis paper considers dynamic asset allocation in a mean versus downside-risk framework. We derive closed-form solutions for the optimal portfolio weights when returns are lognormally distributed. Moreover, we study the impact of skewed and fat-tailed return distributions. We find that

  2. Dynamical response of the Arctic winter stratosphere to global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karpechko, A.; Manzini, E.

    2017-12-01

    Climate models often simulate dynamical warming of the Arctic stratosphere as a response to global warming in association with a strengthening of the deep branch of the Brewer-Dobson circulation; however until now, no satisfactory mechanism for such a response has been suggested. Here we investigate the role of stationary planetary waves in the dynamical response of the Arctic winter stratosphere circulation to global warming by analysing simulations performed with atmosphere-only Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models driven by prescribed sea surface temperatures (SSTs). We focus on December-February (DJF) because this is the period when the troposphere and stratosphere are strongly coupled. When forced by increased SSTs, all the models analysed here simulate Arctic stratosphere dynamical warming, mostly due to increased upward propagation of quasi-stationary wave number 1, as diagnosed by the meridional eddy heat flux. By analysing intermodel spread in the response we show that the stratospheric warming and increased wave flux to the stratosphere correlate with the strengthening of the zonal winds in subtropics and mid-latitudes near the tropopause- a robust response to global warming. These results support previous studies of future Arctic stratosphere changes and suggest a dynamical warming of the Arctic wintertime polar vortex as the most likely response to global warming.

  3. Dynamic epigenetic responses to muscle contraction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Morten; Zierath, Juleen R; Barrès, Romain

    2014-01-01

    Skeletal muscle is a malleable organ that responds to a single acute exercise bout by inducing the expression of genes involved in structural, metabolic and functional adaptations. Several epigenetic mechanisms including histone H4 deacetylation and loss of promoter methylation have been implicated...... in modifying exercise-responsive gene expression. These transient changes suggest that epigenetic mechanisms are not restricted to early stages of human development but are broad dynamic controllers of genomic plasticity in response to environmental factors....

  4. Optimization of multi-response dynamic systems integrating multiple ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    It also results in better optimization performance than back-propagation neural network-based approach and data mining-based approach reported by the past researchers. Keywords: multiple responses, multiple regression, weighted dynamic signal-to-noise ratio, performance measure modelling, response function ...

  5. Spatially-Explicit Simulation Modeling of Ecological Response to Climate Change: Methodological Considerations in Predicting Shifting Population Dynamics of Infectious Disease Vectors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dhingra, Radhika; Jimenez, Violeta; Chang, Howard H; Gambhir, Manoj; Fu, Joshua S; Liu, Yang; Remais, Justin V

    2013-09-01

    Poikilothermic disease vectors can respond to altered climates through spatial changes in both population size and phenology. Quantitative descriptors to characterize, analyze and visualize these dynamic responses are lacking, particularly across large spatial domains. In order to demonstrate the value of a spatially explicit, dynamic modeling approach, we assessed spatial changes in the population dynamics of Ixodes scapularis , the Lyme disease vector, using a temperature-forced population model simulated across a grid of 4 × 4 km cells covering the eastern United States, using both modeled (Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) 3.2.1) baseline/current (2001-2004) and projected (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5; 2057-2059) climate data. Ten dynamic population features (DPFs) were derived from simulated populations and analyzed spatially to characterize the regional population response to current and future climate across the domain. Each DPF under the current climate was assessed for its ability to discriminate observed Lyme disease risk and known vector presence/absence, using data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Peak vector population and month of peak vector population were the DPFs that performed best as predictors of current Lyme disease risk. When examined under baseline and projected climate scenarios, the spatial and temporal distributions of DPFs shift and the seasonal cycle of key questing life stages is compressed under some scenarios. Our results demonstrate the utility of spatial characterization, analysis and visualization of dynamic population responses-including altered phenology-of disease vectors to altered climate.

  6. Dynamics of Neural Responses in Ferret Primary Auditory Cortex: I. Spectro-Temporal Response Field Characterization by Dynamic Ripple Spectra

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Depireux, Didier A; Simon, Jonathan Z; Klein, David J; Shamma, Shihab A

    1999-01-01

    .... It is calculated here from the responses to elementary 'ripples,' a family of sounds with drifting, sinusoidal, spectral envelopes - the complex spectrotemporal envelope of any broadband, dynamic...

  7. Transcriptome dynamics of the microRNA inhibition response

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wen, Jiayu; Leucci, Elenora; Vendramin, Roberto

    2015-01-01

    We report a high-resolution time series study of transcriptome dynamics following antimiR-mediated inhibition of miR-9 in a Hodgkin lymphoma cell-line-the first such dynamic study of the microRNA inhibition response-revealing both general and specific aspects of the physiological response. We show...... validate the key observations with independent time series qPCR and we experimentally validate key predicted miR-9 targets. Methodologically, we developed sensitive functional data analytic predictive methods to analyse the weak response inherent in microRNA inhibition experiments. The methods...... of this study will be applicable to similar high-resolution time series transcriptome analyses and provides the context for more accurate experimental design and interpretation of future microRNA inhibition studies....

  8. Dynamic building risk assessment theoretic model for rainstorm-flood utilization ABM and ABS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lai, Wenze; Li, Wenbo; Wang, Hailei; Huang, Yingliang; Wu, Xuelian; Sun, Bingyun

    2015-12-01

    Flood is one of natural disasters with the worst loss in the world. It needs to assess flood disaster risk so that we can reduce the loss of flood disaster. Disaster management practical work needs the dynamic risk results of building. Rainstorm flood disaster system is a typical complex system. From the view of complex system theory, flood disaster risk is the interaction result of hazard effect objects, rainstorm flood hazard factors, and hazard environments. Agent-based modeling (ABM) is an important tool for complex system modeling. Rainstorm-flood building risk dynamic assessment method (RFBRDAM) was proposed using ABM in this paper. The interior structures and procedures of different agents in proposed meth had been designed. On the Netlogo platform, the proposed method was implemented to assess the building risk changes of the rainstorm flood disaster in the Huaihe River Basin using Agent-based simulation (ABS). The results indicated that the proposed method can dynamically assess building risk of the whole process for the rainstorm flood disaster. The results of this paper can provide one new approach for flood disaster building risk dynamic assessment and flood disaster management.

  9. Analog circuit design designing dynamic circuit response

    CERN Document Server

    Feucht, Dennis

    2010-01-01

    This second volume, Designing Dynamic Circuit Response builds upon the first volume Designing Amplifier Circuits by extending coverage to include reactances and their time- and frequency-related behavioral consequences.

  10. Optimal Linear Responses for Markov Chains and Stochastically Perturbed Dynamical Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antown, Fadi; Dragičević, Davor; Froyland, Gary

    2018-03-01

    The linear response of a dynamical system refers to changes to properties of the system when small external perturbations are applied. We consider the little-studied question of selecting an optimal perturbation so as to (i) maximise the linear response of the equilibrium distribution of the system, (ii) maximise the linear response of the expectation of a specified observable, and (iii) maximise the linear response of the rate of convergence of the system to the equilibrium distribution. We also consider the inhomogeneous, sequential, or time-dependent situation where the governing dynamics is not stationary and one wishes to select a sequence of small perturbations so as to maximise the overall linear response at some terminal time. We develop the theory for finite-state Markov chains, provide explicit solutions for some illustrative examples, and numerically apply our theory to stochastically perturbed dynamical systems, where the Markov chain is replaced by a matrix representation of an approximate annealed transfer operator for the random dynamical system.

  11. Dynamic Multiaxial Response of a Hot-Pressed Aluminum Nitride

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-05

    Hutchinson, Adv. Appl . Mech. 29 (1992). [34] H. Ming-Yuan, J.W. Hutchinson, Int. J. Solids Struct. 25 (1989) 1053. [35] J. Salem , L. Ghosn, Int. J...Dynamic Multiaxial Response of a Hot- Pressed Aluminum Nitride by Guangli Hu, C. Q. Chen, K. T. Ramesh, and J. W. McCauley ARL-RP-0487...Laboratory Aberdeen Proving Ground, MD 21005-5066 ARL-RP-0487 June 2014 Dynamic Multiaxial Response of a Hot- Pressed Aluminum Nitride

  12. Spatio-temporal dynamics of security investments in an interdependent risk environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shafi, Kamran; Bender, Axel; Zhong, Weicai; Abbass, Hussein A.

    2012-10-01

    In a globalised world where risks spread through contagion, the decision of an entity to invest in securing its premises from stochastic risks no longer depends solely on its own actions but also on the actions of other interacting entities in the system. This phenomenon is commonly seen in many domains including airline, logistics and computer security and is referred to as Interdependent Security (IDS). An IDS game models this decision problem from a game-theoretic perspective and deals with the behavioural dynamics of risk-reduction investments in such settings. This paper enhances this model and investigates the spatio-temporal aspects of the IDS games. The spatio-temporal dynamics are studied using simple replicator dynamics on a variety of network structures and for various security cost tradeoffs that lead to different Nash equilibria in an IDS game. The simulation results show that the neighbourhood configuration has a greater effect on the IDS game dynamics than network structure. An in-depth empirical analysis of game dynamics is carried out on regular graphs, which leads to the articulation of necessary and sufficient conditions for dominance in IDS games under spatial constraints.

  13. Modelling the Aggregated Dynamic Response of Electric Vehicles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ziras, Charalampos; Hu, Junjie; You, Shi

    2017-01-01

    There is an increasing interest in the use of electric vehicles (EVs) for providing fast frequency reserves due to their large installed capacity and their very fast response. Most works focus on scheduling and optimization and usually neglect their aggregated dynamic response, which...

  14. Dynamic response analysis as a tool for investigating transport mechanisms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dudok de Wit, Th.; Joye, B.; Lister, J.B.; Moret, J.M.

    1990-01-01

    Dynamic response analysis provides an attractive method for studying transport mechanisms in tokamak plasmas. The analysis of the radial response has already been widely used for heat and particle transport studies. The frequency dependence of the dynamic response, which is often omitted, reveals further properties of the dominant transport mechanisms. Extended measurements of the soft X-ray emission were carried out on the TCA tokamak in order to determine the underlying transport processes. (author) 5 refs., 2 figs

  15. Dynamic Positioning System (DPS) Risk Analysis Using Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thigpen, Eric B.; Boyer, Roger L.; Stewart, Michael A.; Fougere, Pete

    2017-01-01

    The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Safety & Mission Assurance (S&MA) directorate at the Johnson Space Center (JSC) has applied its knowledge and experience with Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to projects in industries ranging from spacecraft to nuclear power plants. PRA is a comprehensive and structured process for analyzing risk in complex engineered systems and/or processes. The PRA process enables the user to identify potential risk contributors such as, hardware and software failure, human error, and external events. Recent developments in the oil and gas industry have presented opportunities for NASA to lend their PRA expertise to both ongoing and developmental projects within the industry. This paper provides an overview of the PRA process and demonstrates how this process was applied in estimating the probability that a Mobile Offshore Drilling Unit (MODU) operating in the Gulf of Mexico and equipped with a generically configured Dynamic Positioning System (DPS) loses location and needs to initiate an emergency disconnect. The PRA described in this paper is intended to be generic such that the vessel meets the general requirements of an International Maritime Organization (IMO) Maritime Safety Committee (MSC)/Circ. 645 Class 3 dynamically positioned vessel. The results of this analysis are not intended to be applied to any specific drilling vessel, although provisions were made to allow the analysis to be configured to a specific vessel if required.

  16. Dynamic response of the JT-60 vacuum vessel under the electromagnetic forces

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takatsu, H.; Shimizu, M.; Ohta, M.

    1982-01-01

    Dynamic response analyses of the JAERI Tokamak 60 (JT-60) vacuum vessel were carried out under three kinds of saddle-like electromagnetic forces. In the analysis, the dynamic response of the bellows was obtained by dividing it into three components; the first, caused by the forced deflection due to the displacement of an adjacent rigid ring; the second, caused by inertia force; and the third, caused by a saddle-like electromagnetic force. Eigenvalue analyses showed that the 20th mode is a typical rotation mode of the rigid ring around the major radius with a natural frequency of 46.3 Hz. From the results of the dynamic response analyses, the maximum displacement response of the rigid ring was 3.1 mm and remarkable dynamic response was observed in the case of plasma disruption with a time constant of 1 ms. In cases of start-up of the plasma current and plasma disruption with a time constant of 50 ms, the rigid ring vibrates quasi-statically. It is clear that the dynamic behavior of the vacuum vessel is governed mainly by the saddle-like electromagnetic force, with a smaller effect of the inverse saddle-like electromagnetic force on the dynamic response of the vacuum vessel. (orig.)

  17. Integrating human behaviour dynamics into flood disaster risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Botzen, W. J.; Clarke, K. C.; Cutter, S. L.; Hall, J. W.; Merz, B.; Michel-Kerjan, E.; Mysiak, J.; Surminski, S.; Kunreuther, H.

    2018-03-01

    The behaviour of individuals, businesses, and government entities before, during, and immediately after a disaster can dramatically affect the impact and recovery time. However, existing risk-assessment methods rarely include this critical factor. In this Perspective, we show why this is a concern, and demonstrate that although initial efforts have inevitably represented human behaviour in limited terms, innovations in flood-risk assessment that integrate societal behaviour and behavioural adaptation dynamics into such quantifications may lead to more accurate characterization of risks and improved assessment of the effectiveness of risk-management strategies and investments. Such multidisciplinary approaches can inform flood-risk management policy development.

  18. Towards Trustworthy Adaptive Case Management with Dynamic Condition Response Graphs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mukkamala, Raghava Rao; Hildebrandt, Thomas; Slaats, Tijs

    2013-01-01

    We describe how the declarative Dynamic Condition Response (DCR) Graphs process model can be used for trustworthy adaptive case management by leveraging the flexible execution, dynamic composition and adaptation supported by DCR Graphs. The dynamically composed and adapted graphs are verified for...

  19. Dynamics of the public concern and risk communication program implementation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaryabova, Victoria; Israel, Michel

    2015-09-01

    The public concern about electromagnetic field (EMF) exposure varies due to different reasons. A part of them are connected with the better and higher quality of information that people receive from science, media, Internet, social networks, industry, but others are based on good communication programs performed by the responsible institutions, administration and persons. Especially, in Bulgaria, public concern follows interesting changes, some of them in correlation with the European processes of concern, but others following the economic and political processes in the country. Here, we analyze the dynamics of the public concern over the last 10 years. Our explanation of the decrease of the people's complaints against EMF exposure from base stations for mobile communication is as a result of our risk communication program that is in implementation for >10 years.

  20. Multivariate Risk-Return Decision Making Within Dynamic Estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Josip Arnerić

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available Risk management in this paper is focused on multivariate risk-return decision making assuming time-varying estimation. Empirical research in risk management showed that the static "mean-variance" methodology in portfolio optimization is very restrictive with unrealistic assumptions. The objective of this paper is estimation of time-varying portfolio stocks weights by constraints on risk measure. Hence, risk measure dynamic estimation is used in risk controlling. By risk control manager makes free supplementary capital for new investments.Univariate modeling approach is not appropriate, even when portfolio returns are treated as one variable. Portfolio weights are time-varying, and therefore it is necessary to reestimate whole model over time. Using assumption of bivariate Student´s t-distribution, in multivariate GARCH(p,q models, it becomes possible to forecast time-varying portfolio risk much more precisely. The complete procedure of analysis is established from Zagreb Stock Exchange using daily observations of Pliva and Podravka stocks.

  1. Near-infrared light-responsive dynamic wrinkle patterns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Fudong; Hou, Honghao; Yin, Jie; Jiang, Xuesong

    2018-04-01

    Dynamic micro/nanopatterns provide an effective approach for on-demand tuning of surface properties to realize a smart surface. We report a simple yet versatile strategy for the fabrication of near-infrared (NIR) light-responsive dynamic wrinkles by using a carbon nanotube (CNT)-containing poly(dimethylsiloxane) (PDMS) elastomer as the substrate for the bilayer systems, with various functional polymers serving as the top stiff layers. The high photon-to-thermal energy conversion of CNT leads to the NIR-controlled thermal expansion of the elastic CNT-PDMS substrate, resulting in dynamic regulation of the applied strain (ε) of the bilayer system by the NIR on/off cycle to obtain a reversible wrinkle pattern. The switchable surface topological structures can transfer between the wrinkled state and the wrinkle-free state within tens of seconds via NIR irradiation. As a proof-of-concept application, this type of NIR-driven dynamic wrinkle pattern was used in smart displays, dynamic gratings, and light control electronics.

  2. 41 CFR 102-80.50 - Are Federal agencies responsible for identifying/estimating risks and for appropriate risk...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... Environmental Management Risks and Risk Reduction Strategies § 102-80.50 Are Federal agencies responsible for... identify and estimate safety and environmental management risks and appropriate risk reduction strategies... responsible for identifying/estimating risks and for appropriate risk reduction strategies? 102-80.50 Section...

  3. From Dynamic Condition Response Structures to Büchi Automata

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mukkamala, Raghava Rao; Hildebrandt, Thomas

    2010-01-01

    Recently we have presented distributed dynamic condition response structures (DCR structures) as a declarative process model conservatively generalizing labelled event structures to allow for finite specifications of repeated, possibly infinite behavior. The key ideas are to split the causality...... relation of event structures in two dual relations: the condition relation and the response relation, to split the conflict relation in two relations: the dynamic exclusion and dynamic inclusion, and finally to allow configurations to be multi sets of events. In the present abstract we recall the model...... and show how to characterise the execution of DCR structures and the acceptance condition for infinite runs by giving a map to Bu ̈chi-automata. This is the first step towards automatic verification of processes specified as DCR structures....

  4. A Simplified Approach to Risk Assessment Based on System Dynamics: An Industrial Case Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garbolino, Emmanuel; Chery, Jean-Pierre; Guarnieri, Franck

    2016-01-01

    Seveso plants are complex sociotechnical systems, which makes it appropriate to support any risk assessment with a model of the system. However, more often than not, this step is only partially addressed, simplified, or avoided in safety reports. At the same time, investigations have shown that the complexity of industrial systems is frequently a factor in accidents, due to interactions between their technical, human, and organizational dimensions. In order to handle both this complexity and changes in the system over time, this article proposes an original and simplified qualitative risk evaluation method based on the system dynamics theory developed by Forrester in the early 1960s. The methodology supports the development of a dynamic risk assessment framework dedicated to industrial activities. It consists of 10 complementary steps grouped into two main activities: system dynamics modeling of the sociotechnical system and risk analysis. This system dynamics risk analysis is applied to a case study of a chemical plant and provides a way to assess the technological and organizational components of safety. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

  5. Modeling of Dynamic Responses in Building Insulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Antonyová

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available In this research a measurement systemwas developedfor monitoring humidity and temperature in the cavity between the wall and the insulating material in the building envelope. This new technology does not disturb the insulating material during testing. The measurement system can also be applied to insulation fixed ten or twenty years earlier and sufficiently reveals the quality of the insulation. A mathematical model is proposed to characterize the dynamic responses in the cavity between the wall and the building insulation as influenced by weather conditions.These dynamic responses are manifested as a delay of both humidity and temperature changes in the cavity when compared with the changes in the ambient surrounding of the building. The process is then modeled through numerical methods and statistical analysis of the experimental data obtained using the new system of measurement.

  6. A generalized Dynamic Overflow Risk Assessment (DORA) for urban drainage RTC

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vezzaro, Luca; Grum, Morten

    2012-01-01

    An innovative generalized approach for integrated real time control of urban drainage systems is presented. The Dynamic Overflow Risk Assessment (DORA) strategy tries to minimize the expected overflow risk by considering (i) the water volume presently stored in the drainage network, (ii) the expe......An innovative generalized approach for integrated real time control of urban drainage systems is presented. The Dynamic Overflow Risk Assessment (DORA) strategy tries to minimize the expected overflow risk by considering (i) the water volume presently stored in the drainage network, (ii...... to reduce Combined Sewer Overflow loads and to optimize the flow discharged to the wastewater treatment plant. Also, the inclusion of forecasts and their uncertainty contributed to further improve the performance of drainage systems. The results of this paper will contribute to a wider usage of global RTC...

  7. Some recent research findings on the social dynamics of environmental risk perception

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Horlick-Jones, T.; Marchi, B. de; Del Zotto, M.; Pellizzoni, L.; Ungaro, D.; Prades Lopez, A.; Diaz Hidalgo, M.; Pidgeon, N.; Sime, J.

    1998-01-01

    Full text of publication follows: key themes: social dynamics of public risk perception; trust, tolerability, and risk management; discourses of environmental risk; implications for risk communication and environmental valuation; application of mixed qualitative/quantitative methods in risk perception research. This paper presents some of the key findings of a two-year comparative European study (the PRISP Project) on public perception of risks associated with industrial sites in the UK, Italy and Spain. The project utilised a mixed-method approach (comprising community ethnography, semi-structured interviews, questionnaire survey and focus groups), within a Grounded Theory framework, to examine the social dynamics of risk comprehension, tolerability and politics in settings adjacent to a range of industrial facilities. These often complex industrial zones present a portfolio of 'acute' and 'chronic' risks including hazards associated with sites regulated by the European Union COMAH Directive. Our findings have important implications for the regulation of both major accident hazard and pollution risks, risk communication programmes, industrial risk management practices and for the methodological basis of health and safety and environmental valuation techniques. (authors)

  8. Dynamic loads during failure risk assessment of bridge crane structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorynin, A. D.; Antsev, V. Yu; Shaforost, A. N.

    2018-03-01

    The paper presents the method of failure risk assessment associated with a bridge crane metal structure at the design stage. It also justifies the necessity of taking into account dynamic loads with regard to the operational cycle of a bridge crane during failure risk assessment of its metal structure.

  9. TRPM8-Dependent Dynamic Response in a Mathematical Model of Cold Thermoreceptor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olivares, Erick; Salgado, Simón; Maidana, Jean Paul; Herrera, Gaspar; Campos, Matías; Madrid, Rodolfo; Orio, Patricio

    2015-01-01

    Cold-sensitive nerve terminals (CSNTs) encode steady temperatures with regular, rhythmic temperature-dependent firing patterns that range from irregular tonic firing to regular bursting (static response). During abrupt temperature changes, CSNTs show a dynamic response, transiently increasing their firing frequency as temperature decreases and silencing when the temperature increases (dynamic response). To date, mathematical models that simulate the static response are based on two depolarizing/repolarizing pairs of membrane ionic conductance (slow and fast kinetics). However, these models fail to reproduce the dynamic response of CSNTs to rapid changes in temperature and notoriously they lack a specific cold-activated conductance such as the TRPM8 channel. We developed a model that includes TRPM8 as a temperature-dependent conductance with a calcium-dependent desensitization. We show by computer simulations that it appropriately reproduces the dynamic response of CSNTs from mouse cornea, while preserving their static response behavior. In this model, the TRPM8 conductance is essential to display a dynamic response. In agreement with experimental results, TRPM8 is also needed for the ongoing activity in the absence of stimulus (i.e. neutral skin temperature). Free parameters of the model were adjusted by an evolutionary optimization algorithm, allowing us to find different solutions. We present a family of possible parameters that reproduce the behavior of CSNTs under different temperature protocols. The detection of temperature gradients is associated to a homeostatic mechanism supported by the calcium-dependent desensitization. PMID:26426259

  10. TRPM8-Dependent Dynamic Response in a Mathematical Model of Cold Thermoreceptor.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erick Olivares

    Full Text Available Cold-sensitive nerve terminals (CSNTs encode steady temperatures with regular, rhythmic temperature-dependent firing patterns that range from irregular tonic firing to regular bursting (static response. During abrupt temperature changes, CSNTs show a dynamic response, transiently increasing their firing frequency as temperature decreases and silencing when the temperature increases (dynamic response. To date, mathematical models that simulate the static response are based on two depolarizing/repolarizing pairs of membrane ionic conductance (slow and fast kinetics. However, these models fail to reproduce the dynamic response of CSNTs to rapid changes in temperature and notoriously they lack a specific cold-activated conductance such as the TRPM8 channel. We developed a model that includes TRPM8 as a temperature-dependent conductance with a calcium-dependent desensitization. We show by computer simulations that it appropriately reproduces the dynamic response of CSNTs from mouse cornea, while preserving their static response behavior. In this model, the TRPM8 conductance is essential to display a dynamic response. In agreement with experimental results, TRPM8 is also needed for the ongoing activity in the absence of stimulus (i.e. neutral skin temperature. Free parameters of the model were adjusted by an evolutionary optimization algorithm, allowing us to find different solutions. We present a family of possible parameters that reproduce the behavior of CSNTs under different temperature protocols. The detection of temperature gradients is associated to a homeostatic mechanism supported by the calcium-dependent desensitization.

  11. Toward a Responsibility-Catering Prioritarian Ethical Theory of Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wikman-Svahn, Per; Lindblom, Lars

    2018-03-05

    Standard tools used in societal risk management such as probabilistic risk analysis or cost-benefit analysis typically define risks in terms of only probabilities and consequences and assume a utilitarian approach to ethics that aims to maximize expected utility. The philosopher Carl F. Cranor has argued against this view by devising a list of plausible aspects of the acceptability of risks that points towards a non-consequentialist ethical theory of societal risk management. This paper revisits Cranor's list to argue that the alternative ethical theory responsibility-catering prioritarianism can accommodate the aspects identified by Cranor and that the elements in the list can be used to inform the details of how to view risks within this theory. An approach towards operationalizing the theory is proposed based on a prioritarian social welfare function that operates on responsibility-adjusted utilities. A responsibility-catering prioritarian ethical approach towards managing risks is a promising alternative to standard tools such as cost-benefit analysis.

  12. Purinergic responses of chondrogenic stem cells to dynamic loading

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gađanski Ivana

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In habitually loaded tissues, dynamic loading can trigger ATP (adenosine 5’- triphosphate release to extracellular environment, and result in calcium signaling via ATP binding to purine P2 receptors1. In the current study we have compared purinergic responses (ATP release of two types of cells: bovine chondrocytes (bCHs and human mesenchymal stem cells (hMSC that were encapsulated in agarose and subjected to dynamic loading. Both cell types were cultured under chondrogenic conditions, and their responses to loading were evaluated by ATP release assay in combination with connexin (Cx-sensitive fluorescent dye (Lucifer Yellow - LY and a Cx-hemichannel blocker (Flufenamic acid - FFA. In response to dynamic loading, chondrogenic hMSCs released significantly higher amounts of ATP (5-fold in comparison to the bCHs early in culture (day 2. Triggering of LY uptake in the bCHs and hMSCs by dynamic loading implies opening of the Cx-hemichannels. However, the number of LY-positive cells in hMSC-constructs was 2.5-fold lower compared to the loaded bCH-constructs, suggesting utilization of additional mechanisms of ATP release. Cx-reactive sites were detected in both bCHs and hMSCs-constructs. FFA application led to reduced ATP release both in bCHs and hMSCs, which confirms the involvement of connexin hemichannels, with more prominent effects in bCHs than in hMSCs, further implying the existence of additional mechanism of ATP release in chondrogenic hMSCs. Taken together, these results indicate stronger purinergic response to dynamic loading of chondrogenic hMSCs than primary chondrocytes, by activation of connexin hemichannels and additional mechanisms of ATP release. [Projekat Ministrastva nauke Republike Srbije, ON174028 i br. III41007

  13. Risk analysis in oil spill response planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chernoplekov, A.N.; Alexandrov, A.A.

    2005-01-01

    Tiered response is a basic approach to emergency plans, including oil spill response (OSR). This paper delineates a huge set of accidental scenarios within a certain tier of response generated by a computer during risk assessment. Parameters such as the amount of oil spilled, duration of discharge and types of losses should be provided in OSR scenarios. Examples of applications include offshore installations, sub sea or onshore pipelines, and localized onshore facilities. The paper demonstrates how to use risk analysis results for delineating all likely spills into groups that need a specific tier response. The best world practices and Russian regulatory approaches were outlined and compared. Corresponding algorithms were developed and their application in pipelines was presented. The algorithm combines expert's skills and spill trajectory modeling with the net environmental benefit analysis principle into the incident specific emergency response planning. 9 refs., 13 tabs., 2 figs

  14. Organizational reputation risk management as a component of the dynamic capabilities management process1

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krzakiewicz Kazimierz

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Intangible assets, such as reputation, brand value, strategic position, alliances, knowledge, human capital, play an increasingly important role in shaping the market value of an organization. At the same time, in the literature it is emphasized that the attribute of intangibility translates into an increased risk of destruction or impairment of assets. Thus, the research problem associated with the analysis of organizational reputation risk management as a component of the dynamic capabilities management process should be considered important from the point of view of management science. The study attempts to outline the concept of dynamic capabilities, define the concept of risk and subsequently discuss the relationship between dynamic capabilities and organizational reputation risk management.

  15. CADYRI, a dynamic mapping tool of human risk associated with flooding in urban areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanguy, M.; Chokmani, K.; Bernier, M.; Poulin, J.

    2013-12-01

    When a flood affects an urban area, the managers and services responsible for public safety need precise and real time information on the localization of the flooded areas, on the submersion heights in those areas, but also on the vulnerability of people exposed to this hazard. Such information is essential for an effective crisis management. Despite a growing interest in this topic over the last 15 years, the development of flood risk assessment tools mainly focused on quantitative modeling of the monetary damages caused by floods to residential buildings or to critical infrastructures. Little attention was paid to the vulnerability of people exposed to flooding but also to the effects of the failure or destruction of critical infrastructures and residential building on people health and security during the disaster. Moreover, these models do not integrate the dynamic features of the flood (extent, submersion heights) and the evolution of human vulnerability in the same mapping tool. Thus, an accurate and precise evaluation of human risk induced by urban flooding is hardly feasible using such models. This study presents CADYRI, a dynamic mapping tool of human risk associated with flooding in urban areas, which fills the actual needs in terms of flood risk evaluation and management. This innovative tool integrates a methodology of flood hazard mapping that simulates, for a given discharge, the associated water level, and subsequently determines the extent of the flooded area and the submersion heights at each point of the flooded area, using a DEM. The dynamics of human vulnerability is then mapped at the household level, according to the characteristics of the flood hazard. Three key components of human vulnerability have been identified and are integrated to CADYRI: 1, the intrinsic vulnerability of the population, estimated by specific socio-economic indicators; 2, the vulnerability of buildings, assessed by their structural features; 3, the vulnerability of

  16. Risk taking and risk sharing: does responsibility matter? (RM/13/045-revised-)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cettolin, Elena; Tausch, Franziska

    2016-01-01

    Risk sharing arrangements diminish individuals’ vulnerability to probabilistic events that negatively affect their financial situation. This is because risk sharing implies redistribution, as lucky individuals support the unlucky ones. We hypothesize that responsibility for risky choices decreases

  17. Dynamic Response of a Floating Bridge Structure

    OpenAIRE

    Viuff, Thomas; Leira, Bernt Johan; Øiseth, Ole; Xiang, Xu

    2016-01-01

    A theoretical overview of the stochastic dynamic analysis of a floating bridge structure is presented. Emphasis is on the wave-induced response and the waves on the sea surface are idealized as a zero mean stationary Gaussian process. The first-order wave load processes are derived using linear potential theory and the structural idealization is based on the Finite Element Method. A frequency response calculation is presented for a simplified floating bridge structure example emphasising the ...

  18. An Assessment of risk response strategies practiced in software projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vanita Bhoola

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Risk management and success in projects are highly intertwined – better approaches to project risk management tend to increase chances of project success in terms of achieving scope & quality, schedule and cost targets. The process of responding to risk factors during a project’s life cycle is a crucial aspect of risk management referred to as risk response strategies, in this paper. The current research explores the status of risk response strategies applied in the software development projects in India. India provides a young IT-savvy English-speaking population, which is also cost effective. Other than the workforce, the environment for implementation of software projects in India is different from the matured economies. Risk management process is a commonly discussed theme, though its implementation in practice has a huge scope for improvement in India. The paper talks about four fundamental treatments to risk response – Avoidance, Transference, Mitigation and Acceptance (ATMA. From a primary data of 302 project managers, the paper attempts to address the risk response factors that lead to successful achievement of project scope & quality, schedule and cost targets, by using a series of regressions followed with Seemingly Unrelated Regression Equations (SURE modelling. Mitigation emerged as the most significant risk response strategy to achieve project targets. Acceptance, transference, and avoidance of risk were mostly manifested in the forms of transparency in communication across stakeholders, careful study of the nature of risks and close coordination between project team, customers/end-users and top management.

  19. Dynamic probability control limits for risk-adjusted CUSUM charts based on multiresponses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xiang; Loda, Justin B; Woodall, William H

    2017-07-20

    For a patient who has survived a surgery, there could be several levels of recovery. Thus, it is reasonable to consider more than two outcomes when monitoring surgical outcome quality. The risk-adjusted cumulative sum (CUSUM) chart based on multiresponses has been developed for monitoring a surgical process with three or more outcomes. However, there is a significant effect of varying risk distributions on the in-control performance of the chart when constant control limits are applied. To overcome this disadvantage, we apply the dynamic probability control limits to the risk-adjusted CUSUM charts for multiresponses. The simulation results demonstrate that the in-control performance of the charts with dynamic probability control limits can be controlled for different patient populations because these limits are determined for each specific sequence of patients. Thus, the use of dynamic probability control limits for risk-adjusted CUSUM charts based on multiresponses allows each chart to be designed for the corresponding patient sequence of a surgeon or a hospital and therefore does not require estimating or monitoring the patients' risk distribution. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  20. Increased Flooding Risk - Accelerating Threat and Stakeholder Response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atkinson, L. P.; Ezer, T.; De Young, R.; McShane, M. K.; McFarlane, B.

    2012-12-01

    Coastal cities have been adapting to coastal flooding for centuries. Now, with increased population along the coast combined with increased flooding because of sea level rise (SLR) the vulnerability of coastal cities has increased significantly. In this paper we will discuss the physical threat of accelerating sea level rise and the response of stakeholders. Sallenger et al (2012) stated "... we present evidence of recently accelerated SLR in a unique 1,000-km-long hotspot on the highly populated North American Atlantic coast north of Cape Hatteras and show that it is consistent with a modeled fingerprint of dynamic SLR." In the Northeast Hotspot (NEH) dynamic processes such as Gulf Stream transport can cause local sea level differences (Ezer, 2001). Sweet et al (2009) attributed the anomalously high sea level along the mid-Atlantic in 2009 to dynamic SLR. A recent paper (Ezer and Corlett, 2012 submitted), focused on Chesapeake Bay, confirms Sallenger et al. These accelerations suggest that the higher estimates of SLR in IPCC reports may be better estimates. The combination of local sea level rise and acceleration, even with average coastal storm surge, results in increased vulnerability and economic losses. We will use three examples of stakeholder response to this threat: shipbuilding, cities and insurance. Nuclear aircraft carrier drydock in Newport News, VA - The only drydock where nuclear powered aircraft carriers are built flooded during Hurricane Isabel. A study showed that with a 1 meter sea level rise and no change in storm severity they would have 'Major Flooding' every 4 months rather than every 27 years. Cities infrastructure - In a recent report on sea level rise, the Hampton Roads Planning District Commission (representing nearly 2m people) found that "sea level rise will be a major issue", "there is not yet official state or federal guidance for addressing sea level rise", "…the "…U.S. Army Corps of Engineers has developed guidance…" for their

  1. Impact of the variation in dynamic vehicle load on flexible pavement responses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahsanuzzaman, Md

    The purpose of this research was to evaluate the dynamic variation in asphalt pavement critical responses due to dynamic tire load variations. An attempt was also made to develop generalized regression equations to predict the dynamic response variation in flexible pavement under various dynamic load conditions. The study used an extensive database of computed pavement response histories for five different types of sites (smooth, rough, medium rough, very rough and severely rough), two different asphalt pavement structures (thin and thick) at two temperatures (70 °F and 104 °F), subjected to a tandem axle dual tire at three speeds 25, 37 and 50 mph (40, 60 and 80 km/h). All pavement responses were determined using the 3D-Move Analysis program (Version 1.2) developed by University of Nevada, Reno. A new term called Dynamic Response Coefficient (DRC) was introduced in this study to address the variation in critical pavement responses due to dynamic loads as traditionally measured by the Dynamic Load Coefficient (DLC). While DLC represents the additional varying component of the tire load, DRC represents the additional varying component of the response value (standard deviation divided by mean response). In this study, DRC was compared with DLC for five different sites based on the roughness condition of the sites. Previous studies showed that DLC varies with vehicle speed and suspension types, and assumes a constant value for the whole pavement structure (lateral and vertical directions). On the other hand, in this study, DRC was found to be significantly varied with the asphalt pavement and function of pavement structure, road roughness conditions, temperatures, vehicle speeds, suspension types, and locations of the point of interest in the pavement. A major contribution of the study is that the variation of pavement responses due to dynamic load in a flexible pavement system can be predicted with generalized regression equations. Fitting parameters (R2) in the

  2. Structural optimization for nonlinear dynamic response

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dou, Suguang; Strachan, B. Scott; Shaw, Steven W.

    2015-01-01

    by a single vibrating mode, or by a pair of internally resonant modes. The approach combines techniques from nonlinear dynamics, computational mechanics and optimization, and it allows one to relate the geometric and material properties of structural elements to terms in the normal form for a given resonance......Much is known about the nonlinear resonant response of mechanical systems, but methods for the systematic design of structures that optimize aspects of these responses have received little attention. Progress in this area is particularly important in the area of micro-systems, where nonlinear...... resonant behaviour is being used for a variety of applications in sensing and signal conditioning. In this work, we describe a computational method that provides a systematic means for manipulating and optimizing features of nonlinear resonant responses of mechanical structures that are described...

  3. Influence of neuromuscular noise and walking speed on fall risk and dynamic stability in a 3D dynamic walking model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roos, Paulien E; Dingwell, Jonathan B

    2013-06-21

    Older adults and those with increased fall risk tend to walk slower. They may do this voluntarily to reduce their fall risk. However, both slower and faster walking speeds can predict increased risk of different types of falls. The mechanisms that contribute to fall risk across speeds are not well known. Faster walking requires greater forward propulsion, generated by larger muscle forces. However, greater muscle activation induces increased signal-dependent neuromuscular noise. These speed-related increases in neuromuscular noise may contribute to the increased fall risk observed at faster walking speeds. Using a 3D dynamic walking model, we systematically varied walking speed without and with physiologically-appropriate neuromuscular noise. We quantified how actual fall risk changed with gait speed, how neuromuscular noise affected speed-related changes in fall risk, and how well orbital and local dynamic stability measures predicted changes in fall risk across speeds. When we included physiologically-appropriate noise to the 'push-off' force in our model, fall risk increased with increasing walking speed. Changes in kinematic variability, orbital, and local dynamic stability did not predict these speed-related changes in fall risk. Thus, the increased neuromuscular variability that results from increased signal-dependent noise that is necessitated by the greater muscular force requirements of faster walking may contribute to the increased fall risk observed at faster walking speeds. The lower fall risk observed at slower speeds supports experimental evidence that slowing down can be an effective strategy to reduce fall risk. This may help explain the slower walking speeds observed in older adults and others. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Declarative Event-Based Workflow as Distributed Dynamic Condition Response Graphs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hildebrandt, Thomas; Mukkamala, Raghava Rao

    2010-01-01

    We present Dynamic Condition Response Graphs (DCR Graphs) as a declarative, event-based process model inspired by the workflow language employed by our industrial partner and conservatively generalizing prime event structures. A dynamic condition response graph is a directed graph with nodes repr...... exemplify the use of distributed DCR Graphs on a simple workflow taken from a field study at a Danish hospital, pointing out their flexibility compared to imperative workflow models. Finally we provide a mapping from DCR Graphs to Buchi-automata....

  5. Spatially-Explicit Simulation Modeling of Ecological Response to Climate Change: Methodological Considerations in Predicting Shifting Population Dynamics of Infectious Disease Vectors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Justin V. Remais

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Poikilothermic disease vectors can respond to altered climates through spatial changes in both population size and phenology. Quantitative descriptors to characterize, analyze and visualize these dynamic responses are lacking, particularly across large spatial domains. In order to demonstrate the value of a spatially explicit, dynamic modeling approach, we assessed spatial changes in the population dynamics of Ixodes scapularis, the Lyme disease vector, using a temperature-forced population model simulated across a grid of 4 × 4 km cells covering the eastern United States, using both modeled (Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF 3.2.1 baseline/current (2001–2004 and projected (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5; 2057–2059 climate data. Ten dynamic population features (DPFs were derived from simulated populations and analyzed spatially to characterize the regional population response to current and future climate across the domain. Each DPF under the current climate was assessed for its ability to discriminate observed Lyme disease risk and known vector presence/absence, using data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Peak vector population and month of peak vector population were the DPFs that performed best as predictors of current Lyme disease risk. When examined under baseline and projected climate scenarios, the spatial and temporal distributions of DPFs shift and the seasonal cycle of key questing life stages is compressed under some scenarios. Our results demonstrate the utility of spatial characterization, analysis and visualization of dynamic population responses—including altered phenology—of disease vectors to altered climate.

  6. Bistable responses in bacterial genetic networks: Designs and dynamical consequences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tiwari, Abhinav; Ray, J. Christian J.; Narula, Jatin; Igoshin, Oleg A.

    2011-01-01

    A key property of living cells is their ability to react to stimuli with specific biochemical responses. These responses can be understood through the dynamics of underlying biochemical and genetic networks. Evolutionary design principles have been well studied in networks that display graded responses, with a continuous relationship between input signal and system output. Alternatively, biochemical networks can exhibit bistable responses so that over a range of signals the network possesses two stable steady states. In this review, we discuss several conceptual examples illustrating network designs that can result in a bistable response of the biochemical network. Next, we examine manifestations of these designs in bacterial master-regulatory genetic circuits. In particular, we discuss mechanisms and dynamic consequences of bistability in three circuits: two-component systems, sigma-factor networks, and a multistep phosphorelay. Analyzing these examples allows us to expand our knowledge of evolutionary design principles for networks with bistable responses. PMID:21385588

  7. Dynamic response of tunnels in jointed rocks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heuze, F.E.; Shaffer, R.J.; Walton, O.R.; Maddix, D.M.

    1992-03-01

    We describe the application of the Discrete Element Method (DEM) to the dynamic analysis of the response of tunnels in jointed rocks to earthquake loading. In situations where large motions of many blocks and collapse occur, the discontinuum-based DEM approach appears superior to other methods of analysis

  8. Researches on modeling of nuclear power plants for dynamic response analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Watabe, M.; Fukuzawa, R.; Chiba, O.; Toritani, T.

    1983-01-01

    The authors tried to establish the rational and economical model due to the vertical component considering the dynamic soil-structure interaction effects and the flexibility of the mat foundation. Three types of models were introduced. 1) Finite element model. Two cases of response analyses due to harmonic excitations with the finite element model were performed in which the mat foundation was treated rigid and elastic body. The dynamic soil-structure interaction effects were evaluated based on the condition that soil was semiinfinite elastic medium. 2) Sophisticated mass-spring-dashpot model. Two cases of response analyses due to harmonic excitations were performed to simulate the dynamic characteristics of the finite element models mentioned above using the sophisticated mass-spring-dashpot model, in which the dynamic soil-structure interaction effects were evaluated with the same procedure applied to the finite element model. 3) Simplified mass-spring-dashpot model. There were introduced three types of the simplified mass-spring-dashpot model in which the dynamic soil-structure interaction effects were simplified. Response analyses due to harmonic excitations and earthquake ground motions were performed in order to establish the rational and economical model. (orig./HP)

  9. Dynamic response of a monorail steel bridge under a moving train

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, C. H.; Kawatani, M.; Kim, C. W.; Nishimura, N.; Kobayashi, Y.

    2006-06-01

    This study proposes a dynamic response analysis procedure for traffic-induced vibration of a monorail bridge and train. Each car in the monorail train is idealized as a dynamic system of 15-degrees-of-freedom. The governing equations of motion for a three-dimensional monorail bridge-train interaction system are derived using Lagrange's formulation for monorail trains, and a finite-element method for modal analysis of monorail bridges. Analytical results on dynamic response of the monorail train and bridge are compared with field-test data in order to verify the validity of the proposed analysis procedure, and a positive correlation is found. An interesting feature of the monorail bridge response is that sway motion is caused by torsional behavior resulting from eccentricity between the shear center of the bridge section and the train load.

  10. Response of porous beryllium to static and dynamic loading

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Isbell, W.M.; Walton, O.R.; Ree, F.H.

    1977-07-01

    Previous investigstions of the mechanical response of porous materials to dynamic loading have been extended to include the shock wave response of a brittle metal. The complex response of berylliums of 85 to 90 percent porosity in two initial conditions has been examined in a theoretical and experimental program to be described. The study has resulted in the development of constitutive relations placed in hydrocodes which are capable of accurately predicting wave propagation in the berylliums. A comprehensive set of static (0 to 4 Gpa) and dynamic (0 to 35 Gpa) experiments was performed to measure the behavior of these brittle, porous materials to imposed loads. The results of the experiments guided a modeling effort which added several new features to previous models, including deviatoric stresses, porosity-dependent relaxation time of pore closure, elastic-plastic reopening of pores, and improved compaction functions.

  11. Response of porous beryllium to static and dynamic loading

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Isbell, W.M.; Walton, O.R.; Ree, F.H.

    1977-07-01

    Previous investigstions of the mechanical response of porous materials to dynamic loading have been extended to include the shock wave response of a brittle metal. The complex response of berylliums of 85 to 90 percent porosity in two initial conditions has been examined in a theoretical and experimental program to be described. The study has resulted in the development of constitutive relations placed in hydrocodes which are capable of accurately predicting wave propagation in the berylliums. A comprehensive set of static (0 to 4 Gpa) and dynamic (0 to 35 Gpa) experiments was performed to measure the behavior of these brittle, porous materials to imposed loads. The results of the experiments guided a modeling effort which added several new features to previous models, including deviatoric stresses, porosity-dependent relaxation time of pore closure, elastic-plastic reopening of pores, and improved compaction functions

  12. The Response Dynamics of Recognition Memory: Sensitivity and Bias

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koop, Gregory J.; Criss, Amy H.

    2016-01-01

    Advances in theories of memory are hampered by insufficient metrics for measuring memory. The goal of this paper is to further the development of model-independent, sensitive empirical measures of the recognition decision process. We evaluate whether metrics from continuous mouse tracking, or response dynamics, uniquely identify response bias and…

  13. Fluctuation-Response Relation and modeling in systems with fast and slow dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Lacorata

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available We show how a general formulation of the Fluctuation-Response Relation is able to describe in detail the connection between response properties to external perturbations and spontaneous fluctuations in systems with fast and slow variables. The method is tested by using the 360-variable Lorenz-96 model, where slow and fast variables are coupled to one another with reciprocal feedback, and a simplified low dimensional system. In the Fluctuation-Response context, the influence of the fast dynamics on the slow dynamics relies in a non trivial behavior of a suitable quadratic response function. This has important consequences for the modeling of the slow dynamics in terms of a Langevin equation: beyond a certain intrinsic time interval even the optimal model can give just statistical prediction.

  14. Dynamic Response Testing in an Electrically Heated Reactor Test Facility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bragg-Sitton, Shannon M.; Morton, T. J.

    2006-01-01

    Non-nuclear testing can be a valuable tool in development of a space nuclear power or propulsion system. In a non-nuclear test bed, electric heaters are used to simulate the heat from nuclear fuel. Standard testing allows one to fully assess thermal, heat transfer, and stress related attributes of a given system, but fails to demonstrate the dynamic response that would be present in an integrated, fueled reactor system. The integration of thermal hydraulic hardware tests with simulated neutronic response provides a bridge between electrically heated testing and full nuclear testing. By implementing a neutronic response model to simulate the dynamic response that would be expected in a fueled reactor system, one can better understand system integration issues, characterize integrated system response times and response characteristics, and assess potential design improvements at a relatively small fiscal investment. Initial system dynamic response testing was demonstrated on the integrated SAFE-100a heat pipe cooled, electrically heated reactor and heat exchanger hardware, utilizing a one-group solution to the point kinetics equations to simulate the expected neutronic response of the system (Bragg-Sitton, 2005). The current paper applies the same testing methodology to a direct drive gas cooled reactor system, demonstrating the applicability of the testing methodology to any reactor type and demonstrating the variation in system response characteristics in different reactor concepts. In each testing application, core power transients were controlled by a point kinetics model with reactivity feedback based on core average temperature; the neutron generation time and the temperature feedback coefficient are provided as model inputs. Although both system designs utilize a fast spectrum reactor, the method of cooling the reactor differs significantly, leading to a variable system response that can be demonstrated and assessed in a non-nuclear test facility.

  15. A Method for Dynamic Risk Assessment and Management of Rockbursts in Drill and Blast Tunnels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Guo-Feng; Feng, Xia-Ting; Feng, Guang-Liang; Chen, Bing-Rui; Chen, Dong-Fang; Duan, Shu-Qian

    2016-08-01

    Focusing on the problems caused by rockburst hazards in deep tunnels, such as casualties, damage to construction equipment and facilities, construction schedule delays, and project cost increase, this research attempts to present a methodology for dynamic risk assessment and management of rockbursts in D&B tunnels. The basic idea of dynamic risk assessment and management of rockbursts is determined, and methods associated with each step in the rockburst risk assessment and management process are given, respectively. Among them, the main parts include a microseismic method for early warning the occurrence probability of rockburst risk, an estimation method that aims to assess potential consequences of rockburst risk, an evaluation method that utilizes a new quantitative index considering both occurrence probability and consequences for determining the level of rockburst risk, and the dynamic updating. Specifically, this research briefly describes the referenced microseismic method of warning rockburst, but focuses on the analysis of consequences and associated risk assessment and management of rockburst. Using the proposed method of risk assessment and management of rockburst, the occurrence probability, potential consequences, and the level of rockburst risk can be obtained in real-time during tunnel excavation, which contributes to the dynamic optimisation of risk mitigation measures and their application. The applicability of the proposed method has been verified by those cases from the Jinping II deep headrace and water drainage tunnels at depths of 1900-2525 m (with a length of 11.6 km in total for D&B tunnels).

  16. A dynamic multimedia fuzzy-stochastic integrated environmental risk assessment approach for contaminated sites management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hu, Yan; Wen, Jing-ya; Li, Xiao-li; Wang, Da-zhou; Li, Yu, E-mail: liyuxx8@hotmail.com

    2013-10-15

    Highlights: • Using interval mathematics to describe spatial and temporal variability and parameter uncertainty. • Using fuzzy theory to quantify variability of environmental guideline values. • Using probabilistic approach to integrate interval concentrations and fuzzy environmental guideline. • Establishment of dynamic multimedia environmental integrated risk assessment framework. -- Abstract: A dynamic multimedia fuzzy-stochastic integrated environmental risk assessment approach was developed for contaminated sites management. The contaminant concentrations were simulated by a validated interval dynamic multimedia fugacity model, and different guideline values for the same contaminant were represented as a fuzzy environmental guideline. Then, the probability of violating environmental guideline (Pv) can be determined by comparison between the modeled concentrations and the fuzzy environmental guideline, and the constructed relationship between the Pvs and environmental risk levels was used to assess the environmental risk level. The developed approach was applied to assess the integrated environmental risk at a case study site in China, simulated from 1985 to 2020. Four scenarios were analyzed, including “residential land” and “industrial land” environmental guidelines under “strict” and “loose” strictness. It was found that PAH concentrations will increase steadily over time, with soil found to be the dominant sink. Source emission in soil was the leading input and atmospheric sedimentation was the dominant transfer process. The integrated environmental risks primarily resulted from petroleum spills and coke ovens, while the soil environmental risks came from coal combustion. The developed approach offers an effective tool for quantifying variability and uncertainty in the dynamic multimedia integrated environmental risk assessment and the contaminated site management.

  17. A dynamic multimedia fuzzy-stochastic integrated environmental risk assessment approach for contaminated sites management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hu, Yan; Wen, Jing-ya; Li, Xiao-li; Wang, Da-zhou; Li, Yu

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • Using interval mathematics to describe spatial and temporal variability and parameter uncertainty. • Using fuzzy theory to quantify variability of environmental guideline values. • Using probabilistic approach to integrate interval concentrations and fuzzy environmental guideline. • Establishment of dynamic multimedia environmental integrated risk assessment framework. -- Abstract: A dynamic multimedia fuzzy-stochastic integrated environmental risk assessment approach was developed for contaminated sites management. The contaminant concentrations were simulated by a validated interval dynamic multimedia fugacity model, and different guideline values for the same contaminant were represented as a fuzzy environmental guideline. Then, the probability of violating environmental guideline (Pv) can be determined by comparison between the modeled concentrations and the fuzzy environmental guideline, and the constructed relationship between the Pvs and environmental risk levels was used to assess the environmental risk level. The developed approach was applied to assess the integrated environmental risk at a case study site in China, simulated from 1985 to 2020. Four scenarios were analyzed, including “residential land” and “industrial land” environmental guidelines under “strict” and “loose” strictness. It was found that PAH concentrations will increase steadily over time, with soil found to be the dominant sink. Source emission in soil was the leading input and atmospheric sedimentation was the dominant transfer process. The integrated environmental risks primarily resulted from petroleum spills and coke ovens, while the soil environmental risks came from coal combustion. The developed approach offers an effective tool for quantifying variability and uncertainty in the dynamic multimedia integrated environmental risk assessment and the contaminated site management

  18. Including dynamic CO2 intensity with demand response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stoll, Pia; Brandt, Nils; Nordström, Lars

    2014-01-01

    Hourly demand response tariffs with the intention of reducing or shifting loads during peak demand hours are being intensively discussed among policy-makers, researchers and executives of future electricity systems. Demand response rates have still low customer acceptance, apparently because the consumption habits requires stronger incentive to change than any proposed financial incentive. An hourly CO 2 intensity signal could give customers an extra environmental motivation to shift or reduce loads during peak hours, as it would enable co-optimisation of electricity consumption costs and carbon emissions reductions. In this study, we calculated the hourly dynamic CO 2 signal and applied the calculation to hourly electricity market data in Great Britain, Ontario and Sweden. This provided a novel understanding of the relationships between hourly electricity generation mix composition, electricity price and electricity mix CO 2 intensity. Load shifts from high-price hours resulted in carbon emission reductions for electricity generation mixes where price and CO 2 intensity were positively correlated. The reduction can be further improved if the shift is optimised using both price and CO 2 intensity. The analysis also indicated that an hourly CO 2 intensity signal can help avoid carbon emissions increases for mixes with a negative correlation between electricity price and CO 2 intensity. - Highlights: • We present a formula for calculating hybrid dynamic CO 2 intensity of electricity generation mixes. • We apply the dynamic CO 2 Intensity on hourly electricity market prices and generation units for Great Britain, Ontario and Sweden. • We calculate the spearman correlation between hourly electricity market price and dynamic CO 2 intensity for Great Britain, Ontario and Sweden. • We calculate carbon footprint of shifting 1 kWh load daily from on-peak hours to off-peak hours using the dynamic CO 2 intensity. • We conclude that using dynamic CO 2 intensity for

  19. Flood Risk in Australia: Whose Responsibility Is It, Anyway?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robin van den Honert

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents research into four key stakeholders in flood risk management in Australia: local councils, the insurance industry, the State Emergency Service (SES, and local residents; examining the perception of their own roles and responsibilities, and those of the other stakeholders. Key informant interviews were conducted in four locations—Brisbane and Emerald, in Queensland, Dora Creek, in New South Wales, and Benalla, in Victoria. We find that understanding of the roles and responsibilities of each stakeholder varied considerably between research participants. Insurance representatives felt their concerns about increasing flood risk costs were unheeded until the 2010–2011 floods made them the “canary in the coal mine”. Councils felt they had limited options for reducing flood risk. SES representatives felt they were too relied upon for event response, with requests for assistance outstripping their capacity to assist, and many residents were uncertain how to prepare for flood, relying on emergency agencies and the local council to protect them. Key lessons for flood risk management in Australia are (a an urgent need for all stakeholders to better understand each others’ roles and responsibilities; and (b residents must take greater responsibility for their own personal protection. Only then can the vision of shared responsibility presented by the 2009 National Strategy for Disaster Resilience be achieved.

  20. A Mathematical Model of Cardiovascular Response to Dynamic Exercise

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Magosso, E

    2001-01-01

    A mathematical model of cardiovascular response to dynamic exercise is presented, The model includes the pulsating heart, the systemic and pulmonary, circulation, a functional description of muscle...

  1. Dynamic tensile response of alumina-Al composites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Atisivan, R.; Bandyopadhyay, A.; Gupta, Y. M.

    2002-01-01

    Plate impact experiments were carried out to examine the high strain-rate tensile response of alumina-aluminum (Al) composites with tailored microstructures. A novel processing technique was used to fabricate interpenetrating phase alumina-aluminum composites with controlled microstructures. Fused deposition modeling (FDM), a commercially available rapid prototyping technique, was used to produce the controlled porosity mullite ceramic preforms. Alumina-Al composites were then processed via reactive metal infiltration of porous mullite ceramics. With this approach, both the micro as well as the macro structures can be designed via computer aided design (CAD) to tailor the properties of the composites. Two sets of dynamic tensile experiments were performed. In the first, the metal content was varied between 23 and 39 wt. percent. In the second, the microstructure was varied while holding the metal content nearly constant. Samples with higher metal content, as expected, displayed better spall resistance. For a given metal content, samples with finer metal diameter showed better spall resistance. Relationship of the microstructural parameters on the dynamic tensile response of the structured composites is discussed here

  2. Dynamic Responses of Continuous Girder Bridges with Uniform Cross-Section under Moving Vehicular Loads

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qingfei Gao

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available To address the drawback of traditional method of investigating dynamic responses of the continuous girder bridge with uniform cross-section under moving vehicular loads, the orthogonal experimental design method is proposed in this paper. Firstly, some empirical formulas of natural frequencies are obtained by theoretical derivation and numerical simulation. The effects of different parameters on dynamic responses of the vehicle-bridge coupled vibration system are discussed using our own program. Finally, the orthogonal experimental design method is proposed for the dynamic responses analysis. The results show that the effects of factors on dynamic responses are dependent on both the selected position and the type of the responses. In addition, the interaction effects between different factors cannot be ignored. To efficiently reduce experimental runs, the conventional orthogonal design is divided into two phases. It has been proved that the proposed method of the orthogonal experimental design greatly reduces calculation cost, and it is efficient and rational enough to study multifactor problems. Furthermore, it provides a good way to obtain more rational empirical formulas of the DLA and other dynamic responses, which may be adopted in the codes of design and evaluation.

  3. Effect of soil stabilized by cement on dynamic response of machine foundations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Al-Wakel Saad

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Machine foundations require significant attention from designers. The main goal of the design of machine foundation is to limit the amplitude displacement and not disturb the people who work near the machine. In some cases, if the design of machine foundations does not satisfy the acceptable value of the dynamic response (such as maximum amplitude of displacement, the stabilization of soil under the machine foundation may be used to decrease the amplitude of displacement. This paper outlines effect of stabilized soil under the foundation by cement on the displacement response of machine foundations. Three-dimensional analyses by using finite element method are carried out to investigate the effect of depth of stabilized layer with different percentage of cement content on the dynamic response of the machine foundation. In addition, the effect of area stabilized by cement material on the dynamic response of machine foundation is investigated. The results shown that, the dynamic response of machine foundations generally decreases with increasing the depth of soil layer stabilized with cement. A significant decrease in the displacement of machine foundations is occurred for the stabilized soil layer with a depth of two times of the width of foundation, and the optimum percentage of cement for stabilizing is 6%.

  4. Dynamic response of the thermometric net radiometer

    Science.gov (United States)

    J. D. Wilson; W. J. Massman; G. E. Swaters

    2009-01-01

    We computed the dynamic response of an idealized thermometric net radiometer, when driven by an oscillating net longwave radiation intended roughly to simulate rapid fluctuations of the radiative environment such as might be expected during field use of such devices. The study was motivated by curiosity as to whether non-linearity of the surface boundary conditions...

  5. Responsibility, guilt, and decision under risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mancini, Francesco; Gangemi, Amelia

    2003-12-01

    We hypothesize that individuals' choices (risk-seeking/risk-aversion) depend on moral values and, in particular, on how subjects evaluate themselves as guilty or as victims of a wrong rather than on the descriptions of the outcomes as given in the options and evaluated accordingly as gains or losses (framing effect). People who evaluate themselves as victims are expected to show a risk-seeking preference (context of innocence). People who evaluate themselves as guilty are expected to show a risk-averse preference (context of guilt). Responses of 232 participants to a decision problem were compared in four different conditions involving two-story formats (innocence/guilt) and two-question-options formats (gain/loss). Regardless of the format of the question options, the story format appears to be an important determinant of individuals' preferences.

  6. Supply risk analysis: applying system dynamics to the Colombian healthcare sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Pablo Zamora Aguas

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper addresses supply risk in the oncological medicine supply chain (SC in Colombia. A system dynamics model was developed for assessing supply risk impact on SC operation and performance. The costs of risk and logis-tics operation were evaluated in current conditions and in a risk mitigation scenario. The model was based on a systematic analysis of supply networks, mainly concerning the reduction of overall SC costs and improving service, quality and opportunity performance index. This article has resulted from research into SC risk management (SCRM carried out by the Universidad Nacional de Colombia’s SEPRO research group.

  7. Dynamical Response near Quantum Critical Points.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucas, Andrew; Gazit, Snir; Podolsky, Daniel; Witczak-Krempa, William

    2017-02-03

    We study high-frequency response functions, notably the optical conductivity, in the vicinity of quantum critical points (QCPs) by allowing for both detuning from the critical coupling and finite temperature. We consider general dimensions and dynamical exponents. This leads to a unified understanding of sum rules. In systems with emergent Lorentz invariance, powerful methods from quantum field theory allow us to fix the high-frequency response in terms of universal coefficients. We test our predictions analytically in the large-N O(N) model and using the gauge-gravity duality and numerically via quantum Monte Carlo simulations on a lattice model hosting the interacting superfluid-insulator QCP. In superfluid phases, interacting Goldstone bosons qualitatively change the high-frequency optical conductivity and the corresponding sum rule.

  8. Who Is Afraid of Liquidity Risk? : Dynamic Portfolio Choice with Stochastic Illiquidity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.J.A.G. Driessen (Joost); R. Xing (Rang)

    2016-01-01

    textabstractRecent empirical work documents large liquidity risk premiums in stock markets. We calculate the liquidity risk premiums demanded by large investors by solving a dynamic portfolio choice problem with stochastic price impact of trading, CRRA utility and a time-varying investment

  9. Dynamic response of cracked hexagonal subassembly ducts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Glazik, J.L.; Petroski, H.J.

    1979-01-01

    The hexagonal subassembly ducts (hexcans) of current Liquid Metal Fast Breeder Reactor (LMFBR) designs are typically made of 20% coldworked Type 316 stainless steel. Prolonged exposure of this initially tough and ductile material to a fast neutron flux at high temperatures can result in severe embrittlement. Under these conditions, the unstable crack propagation of flaws, which may have been introduced during fabrication or transportation of the hexcans, is a problem of interest in LMFBR safety analysis. The abnormal overpressurization resulting from certain interactions within a subassembly, or the rupture of one or more fuel pins, may be sufficient to overload an otherwise subcritical crack in an embrittled hexcan. This paper examines the dynamic elastic response of flawed and unflawed fast reactor subassembly ducts. A plane-strain finite element analysis was performed for ducts containing internal corner cracks, as well as external midflat cracks. Two worst case loading situations were considered: rapid uniform internal pressurization and suddenly applied point loads at opposite midflats. The finite-element code CHILES, which can accomodate the stress singularities that occur at crack tips, was given dynamic capabilities through the inclusion of a consistent mass matrix and step-by-step time integration scheme. The SAP IV code was also employed for eigenvalue analysis and modal response. Although this code does not contain singular elements in its element library, dynamic stress intensity factors were calculated by a technique requiring only ordinary isoparametric quadrilaterals

  10. Full-scale Mark II CRT program: dynamic response evaluation test of pressure transducers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kukita, Yutaka; Namatame, Ken; Takeshita, Isao; Shiba, Masayoshi

    1982-12-01

    A dynamic response evaluation test of pressure transducers was conducted in support of the JAERI Full-Scale Mark II CRT (Containment Response Test) Program. The test results indicated that certain of the cavity-type transducers used in the early blowdown test had undesirable response characteristics. The transducer mounting scheme was modified to avoid trapping of air bubbles in the pressure transmission tubing attached to the transducers. The dynamic response of the modified transducers was acceptable within the frequency range of 200 Hz. (author)

  11. Experimental studies of the dynamic mechanical response of a single polymer chain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thormann, Esben; Evans, Drew R.; Craig, Vincent S. J.

    2006-01-01

    The high-frequency and low-amplitude dynamic mechanical response from a single poly(vinyl alcohol) chain was investigated. Modification of a commercial atomic force microscope enabled high-frequency and low-amplitude periodic deformations of polymer chains during extension to be performed...... mechanical response from poly(vinyl alcohol) does not differ from its static response. This result is not unexpected as poly(vinyl alcohol) is a highly flexible polymer with intramolecular relaxation processes taking place on a short time scale. The choice of a polymer with a fast relaxation allows its...... static properties to be recovered from the dynamic measurements and enables the method suggested in this paper for decoupling the polymer response from the hydrodynamic response to be validated....

  12. Nonlinear dynamics of cortical responses to color in the human cVEP.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nunez, Valerie; Shapley, Robert M; Gordon, James

    2017-09-01

    The main finding of this paper is that the human visual cortex responds in a very nonlinear manner to the color contrast of pure color patterns. We examined human cortical responses to color checkerboard patterns at many color contrasts, measuring the chromatic visual evoked potential (cVEP) with a dense electrode array. Cortical topography of the cVEPs showed that they were localized near the posterior electrode at position Oz, indicating that the primary cortex (V1) was the major source of responses. The choice of fine spatial patterns as stimuli caused the cVEP response to be driven by double-opponent neurons in V1. The cVEP waveform revealed nonlinear color signal processing in the V1 cortex. The cVEP time-to-peak decreased and the waveform's shape was markedly narrower with increasing cone contrast. Comparison of the linear dynamics of retinal and lateral geniculate nucleus responses with the nonlinear dynamics of the cortical cVEP indicated that the nonlinear dynamics originated in the V1 cortex. The nature of the nonlinearity is a kind of automatic gain control that adjusts cortical dynamics to be faster when color contrast is greater.

  13. Crossfit analysis: a novel method to characterize the dynamics of induced plant responses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jansen, Jeroen J; van Dam, Nicole M; Hoefsloot, Huub C J; Smilde, Age K

    2009-12-16

    Many plant species show induced responses that protect them against exogenous attacks. These responses involve the production of many different bioactive compounds. Plant species belonging to the Brassicaceae family produce defensive glucosinolates, which may greatly influence their favorable nutritional properties for humans. Each responding compound may have its own dynamic profile and metabolic relationships with other compounds. The chemical background of the induced response is therefore highly complex and may therefore not reveal all the properties of the response in any single model. This study therefore aims to describe the dynamics of the glucosinolate response, measured at three time points after induction in a feral Brassica, by a three-faceted approach, based on Principal Component Analysis. First the large-scale aspects of the response are described in a 'global model' and then each time-point in the experiment is individually described in 'local models' that focus on phenomena that occur at specific moments in time. Although each local model describes the variation among the plants at one time-point as well as possible, the response dynamics are lost. Therefore a novel method called the 'Crossfit' is described that links the local models of different time-points to each other. Each element of the described analysis approach reveals different aspects of the response. The crossfit shows that smaller dynamic changes may occur in the response that are overlooked by global models, as illustrated by the analysis of a metabolic profiling dataset of the same samples.

  14. Who Is Afraid of Liquidity Risk? : Dynamic Portfolio Choice with Stochastic Illiquidity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Driessen, Joost; Xing, R.

    Recent empirical work documents large liquidity risk premiums in stock markets. We calculate the liquidity risk premiums demanded by large investors by solving a dynamic portfolio choice problem with stochastic price impact of trading, CRRA utility and a time-varying investment opportunity set. We

  15. Perception of risk and the attribution of responsibility for accidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rickard, Laura N

    2014-03-01

    Accidents, one often hears, "happen"; we accept, and even expect, that they will be part of daily life. But in situations in which injury or death result, judgments of responsibility become critical. How might our perceptions of risk influence the ways in which we allocate responsibility for an accident? Drawing from attribution and risk perception theory, this study investigates how perceived controllability and desirability of risk, in addition to perceived danger and recreational risk-taking, relate to attributions of responsibility for the cause of unintentional injury in a unique setting: U.S. national parks. Three parks, Mount Rainier, Olympic, and Delaware Water Gap, provide the setting for this survey-based study, which considers how park visitors (N = 447) attribute responsibility for the cause of a hypothetical visitor accident. Results suggest that respondents tended to make more internal (i.e., related to characteristics of the victim), rather than external (i.e., related to characteristics of the park, or park management) attributions. As respondents viewed park-related risk as controllable, they were more likely to attribute the cause of the accident to the victim. Moreover, among other significant variables, having experienced a similar accident predicted lower internal causal attribution. Opportunities for future research linking risk perception and attribution variables, as well as practical implications for the management of public outdoor settings, are presented. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

  16. Response planning and environmental risk analysis, state of Alaska

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gundlach, E.R.; Marben, G.M.

    1993-01-01

    Under the sponsorship of the Alaska Dept. of Environmental Conservation (ADEC), a multitasked study was undertaken to determine the relative risk of noncrude oil transport (including marine and freshwater), the status of spill response capability in the state, and the need and most appropriate locations for siting spill response deposits. The project used multidisciplinary transport and environmental data analyzed in a geographic information system (GIS) to enable various scenarios and data changes to be easily visualized. The evaluation concerned (a) designation of significant environmental risk areas, (b) environmentally sensitive areas and fish and wildlife likely to be affected, (c) the level of response capability appropriate for protecting the environment, (d) the adequacy of current capabilities for noncrude vessels, (e) the feasibility of establishing one or more response cooperatives for use by multiple carriers, and (f) other steps that could be taken to reduce the risk of a spill and facilitate control and cleanup

  17. The transfer function model for dynamic response of wet cooling coils

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yao Ye; Liu Shiqing

    2008-01-01

    This paper mainly concerned about the dynamic response model of wet cooling coils that is developed by the Laplace transform method. The theoretic equations are firstly established based on the theory of energy conservation. Then, the transfer functions on the transient responses of wet cooling coils have been deduced using the method of Laplace transform. The transfer functions reveal the dynamic relationships between the inlet variables and the outlet ones of the cooling coils. Partial-fraction method and Newton-Raphson method are both used in the inversion of the transfer functions from the s-domain to τ-domain. To make the dynamic model of wet cooling coils more adaptive, RBFNN method is employed to determine the coefficients of heat and mass transfer. Experiments have been done and manifested that the coefficients of heat and mass transfer by RBFNN will be of great value to the validity of the transient response model of wet cooling coils in this study

  18. Dynamic Response of a Planetary Gear System Using a Finite Element/Contact Mechanics Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, Robert G.; Agashe, Vinayak; Vijayakar, Sandeep M.

    2000-01-01

    The dynamic response of a helicopter planetary gear system is examined over a wide range of operating speeds and torques. The analysis tool is a unique, semianalytical finite element formulation that admits precise representation of the tooth geometry and contact forces that are crucial in gear dynamics. Importantly, no a priori specification of static transmission error excitation or mesh frequency variation is required; the dynamic contact forces are evaluated internally at each time step. The calculated response shows classical resonances when a harmonic of mesh frequency coincides with a natural frequency. However, peculiar behavior occurs where resonances expected to be excited at a given speed are absent. This absence of particular modes is explained by analytical relationships that depend on the planetary configuration and mesh frequency harmonic. The torque sensitivity of the dynamic response is examined and compared to static analyses. Rotation mode response is shown to be more sensitive to input torque than translational mode response.

  19. Iterative analysis of cerebrovascular reactivity dynamic response by temporal decomposition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Niftrik, Christiaan Hendrik Bas; Piccirelli, Marco; Bozinov, Oliver; Pangalu, Athina; Fisher, Joseph A; Valavanis, Antonios; Luft, Andreas R; Weller, Michael; Regli, Luca; Fierstra, Jorn

    2017-09-01

    To improve quantitative cerebrovascular reactivity (CVR) measurements and CO 2 arrival times, we present an iterative analysis capable of decomposing different temporal components of the dynamic carbon dioxide- Blood Oxygen-Level Dependent (CO 2 -BOLD) relationship. Decomposition of the dynamic parameters included a redefinition of the voxel-wise CO 2 arrival time, and a separation from the vascular response to a stepwise increase in CO 2 (Delay to signal Plateau - DTP) and a decrease in CO 2 (Delay to signal Baseline -DTB). Twenty-five (normal) datasets, obtained from BOLD MRI combined with a standardized pseudo-square wave CO 2 change, were co-registered to generate reference atlases for the aforementioned dynamic processes to score the voxel-by-voxel deviation probability from normal range. This analysis is further illustrated in two subjects with unilateral carotid artery occlusion using these reference atlases. We have found that our redefined CO 2 arrival time resulted in the best data fit. Additionally, excluding both dynamic BOLD phases (DTP and DTB) resulted in a static CVR, that is maximal response, defined as CVR calculated only over a normocapnic and hypercapnic calibrated plateau. Decomposition and novel iterative modeling of different temporal components of the dynamic CO 2 -BOLD relationship improves quantitative CVR measurements.

  20. Causal Loop-based Modeling on System Dynamics for Risk Communication

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Chang Ju [Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Kang, Kyung Min [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2009-10-15

    It is true that a national policy should be based on public confidence, analyzing their recognition and attitude on life safety, since they have very special risk perception characteristics. For achieving effective public consensus regarding a national policy such as nuclear power, we have to utilize a risk communication (hereafter, calls RiCom) process. However, domestic research models on RiCom process do not provide a practical guideline, because most of them are still superficial and stick on an administrative aspect. Also, most of current models have no experience in terms of verification and validation for effective applications to diverse stake holders. This study focuses on public's dynamic mechanism through the modeling on system dynamics, basically utilizing casual loop diagram (CLD) and stock flow diagram (SFD), which regards as a critical technique for decision making in many industrial RiCom models.

  1. Causal Loop-based Modeling on System Dynamics for Risk Communication

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Chang Ju; Kang, Kyung Min

    2009-01-01

    It is true that a national policy should be based on public confidence, analyzing their recognition and attitude on life safety, since they have very special risk perception characteristics. For achieving effective public consensus regarding a national policy such as nuclear power, we have to utilize a risk communication (hereafter, calls RiCom) process. However, domestic research models on RiCom process do not provide a practical guideline, because most of them are still superficial and stick on an administrative aspect. Also, most of current models have no experience in terms of verification and validation for effective applications to diverse stake holders. This study focuses on public's dynamic mechanism through the modeling on system dynamics, basically utilizing casual loop diagram (CLD) and stock flow diagram (SFD), which regards as a critical technique for decision making in many industrial RiCom models

  2. Aphid reproductive investment in response to mortality risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    Background Aphids are striking in their prodigious reproductive capacity and reliance on microbial endosymbionts, which provision their hosts with necessary amino acids and provide protection against parasites and heat stress. Perhaps as a result of this bacterial dependence, aphids have limited immune function that may leave them vulnerable to bacterial pathogens. An alternative, non-immunological response that may be available to infected aphids is to increase reproduction, thereby ameliorating fitness loss from infection. Such a response would reduce the need to mount a potentially energetically costly immune response, and would parallel that of other hosts that alter life-history traits when there is a risk of infection. Here we examined whether pea aphids (Acyrthosiphon pisum) respond to immunological challenges by increasing reproduction. As a comparison to the response to the internal cue of risk elicited by immunological challenge, we also exposed pea aphids to an external cue of risk - the aphid alarm pheromone (E)-β-farnesene (EBF), which is released in the presence of predators. For each challenge, we also examined whether the presence of symbionts modified the host response, as maintaining host fitness in the face of challenge would benefit both the host and its dependent bacteria. Results We found that aphids stabbed abdominally with a sterile needle had reduced fecundity relative to control aphids but that aphids stabbed with a needle bearing heat-killed bacteria had reproduction intermediate, and statistically indistinguishable, to the aphids stabbed with a sterile needle and the controls. Aphids with different species of facultative symbiotic bacteria had different reproductive patterns overall, but symbionts in general did not alter aphid reproduction in response to bacterial exposure. However, in response to exposure to alarm pheromone, aphids with Hamiltonella defensa or Serratia symbiotica symbiotic infections increased reproduction but those

  3. Crossfit analysis: a novel method to characterize the dynamics of induced plant responses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Smilde Age K

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Many plant species show induced responses that protect them against exogenous attacks. These responses involve the production of many different bioactive compounds. Plant species belonging to the Brassicaceae family produce defensive glucosinolates, which may greatly influence their favorable nutritional properties for humans. Each responding compound may have its own dynamic profile and metabolic relationships with other compounds. The chemical background of the induced response is therefore highly complex and may therefore not reveal all the properties of the response in any single model. Results This study therefore aims to describe the dynamics of the glucosinolate response, measured at three time points after induction in a feral Brassica, by a three-faceted approach, based on Principal Component Analysis. First the large-scale aspects of the response are described in a 'global model' and then each time-point in the experiment is individually described in 'local models' that focus on phenomena that occur at specific moments in time. Although each local model describes the variation among the plants at one time-point as well as possible, the response dynamics are lost. Therefore a novel method called the 'Crossfit' is described that links the local models of different time-points to each other. Conclusions Each element of the described analysis approach reveals different aspects of the response. The crossfit shows that smaller dynamic changes may occur in the response that are overlooked by global models, as illustrated by the analysis of a metabolic profiling dataset of the same samples.

  4. Dynamical tendencies of health consequences caused by competitive risk factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bykov, A.A.; Pronina, I.A.; Kudriavtsev, G.I.

    2000-01-01

    The paper deals with the generalized probabilistic approach for analyzing health consequences caused by various exposure factors. Formally basing on the competitive risk theory, it is introduced a general risk model for analysis the influence of environmental risk factors to human health. The usefulness of the model approach is in the opportunity of taking into account: time delay of impact and consequence manifestation; easy comparisons of exposure factors with different nature and various consequences (morbidity and mortality, carcinogenic and genetic); social and environmental components in overall mortality. Preliminary examples of comparative risk analysis are demonstrated on the Russian demography and environmental data with the attempt of characterizing the dynamical tendencies and evolution of introduced risk index. The prospects of the probabilistic approach and the results obtaining on this basis are discussed. (author)

  5. Racing risk, gendering responsibility: a qualitative study of how ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Individuals' perceptions of risk have implications for whether and how they engage with protective strategies. This study investigated how sexual risk, specifically HIV and pregnancy and responsibility for these risks were constructed in discussions across five groups of youth in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. The qualitative ...

  6. Model-based analysis of postprandial glycemic response dynamics for different types of food

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yvonne J. Rozendaal

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Summary: Background & aims: Knowledge of postprandial glycemic response (PPGR dynamics is important in nutrition management and diabetes research, care and (selfmanagement. In daily life, food intake is the most important factor influencing the occurrence of hyperglycemia. However, the large variability in PPGR dynamics to different types of food is inadequately predicted by existing glycemic measures. The objective of this study was therefore to quantitatively describe PPGR dynamics using a systems approach. Methods: Postprandial glucose and insulin data were collected from literature for many different food products and mixed meals. The predictive value of existing measures, such as the Glycemic Index, was evaluated. A physiology-based dynamic model was used to reconstruct the full postprandial response profiles of both glucose and insulin simultaneously. Results: We collected a large range of postprandial glucose and insulin dynamics for 53 common food products and mixed meals. Currently available glycemic measures were found to be inadequate to describe the heterogeneity in postprandial dynamics. By estimating model parameters from glucose and insulin data, the physiology-based dynamic model accurately describes the measured data whilst adhering to physiological constraints. Conclusions: The physiology-based dynamic model provides a systematic framework to analyze postprandial glucose and insulin profiles. By changing parameter values the model can be adjusted to simulate impaired glucose tolerance and insulin resistance. Keywords: Postprandial glycemic response, Physiology-based dynamic model, Food intake, Computational modeling, Glucose, Insulin

  7. Gender dimorphic ACL strain in response to combined dynamic 3D knee joint loading: implications for ACL injury risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mizuno, Kiyonori; Andrish, Jack T; van den Bogert, Antonie J; McLean, Scott G

    2009-12-01

    While gender-based differences in knee joint anatomies/laxities are well documented, the potential for them to precipitate gender-dimorphic ACL loading and resultant injury risk has not been considered. To this end, we generated gender-specific models of ACL strain as a function of any six degrees of freedom (6DOF) knee joint load state via a combined cadaveric and analytical approach. Continuously varying joint forces and torques were applied to five male and five female cadaveric specimens and recorded along with synchronous knee flexion and ACL strain data. All data (approximately 10,000 samples) were submitted to specimen-specific regression analyses, affording ACL strain predictions as a function of the combined 6 DOF knee loads. Following individual model verifications, generalized gender-specific models were generated and subjected to 6 DOF external load scenarios consistent with both a clinical examination and a dynamic sports maneuver. The ensuing model-based strain predictions were subsequently examined for gender-based discrepancies. Male and female specimen-specific models predicted ACL strain within 0.51%+/-0.10% and 0.52%+/-0.07% of the measured data respectively, and explained more than 75% of the associated variance in each case. Predicted female ACL strains were also significantly larger than respective male values for both simulated 6 DOF load scenarios. Outcomes suggest that the female ACL will rupture in response to comparatively smaller external load applications. Future work must address the underlying anatomical/laxity contributions to knee joint mechanical and resultant ACL loading, ultimately affording prevention strategies that may cater to individual joint vulnerabilities.

  8. Effect of support conditions on structural response under dynamic loading

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Akram, T.; Memon, S.A.

    2008-01-01

    In design practice, dynamic structural analysis is carried out with base of structure considered as fixed; this means that foundation is placed on rock like soil material. While conducting this type of analyses the role of foundation and soil behaviour is totally neglected. The actions in members and loads transferred at foundation level obtained in this manner do not depict the true structural behaviour. FEM (Finite Element Methods) analysis where both superstructure and foundation soil are coupled together is quite complicated and expensive for design environments. A simplified model is required to depict dynamic response of structures with foundations based on flexible soils. The primary purpose of this research is to compare the superstructure dynamic responses of structural systems with fixed base to that of simple soil model base. The selected simple soil model is to be suitable for use in a design environment to give more realistic results. For this purpose building models are idealized with various heights and structural systems in both 2D (Two Dimensional) and 3D (Three Dimensional) space. These models are then provided with visco-elastic supports representing three soil bearing capacities and the analysis results are compared to that of fixed supports models. The results indicate that fixed support system underestimates natural time period of the structures. Dynamic behavior and force response of visco-elastic support is different from fixed support model. Fixed support models result in over designed base columns and under designed beams. (author)

  9. Dynamics of fatty acid vesicles in response to pH stimuli

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ikari, Keita; Sakuma, Yuka; Jimbo, Takehiro

    2015-01-01

    We investigate the dynamics of decanoic acid/decanoate (DA) vesicles in response to pH stimuli. Two types of dynamic processes induced by the micro injection of NaOH solutions are sequentially observed: deformations and topological transitions. In the deformation stage, DA vesicles show a series...

  10. Simulating forest fuel and fire risk dynamics across landscapes--LANDIS fuel module design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong S. He; Bo Z. Shang; Thomas R. Crow; Eric J. Gustafson; Stephen R. Shifley

    2004-01-01

    Understanding fuel dynamics over large spatial (103-106 ha) and temporal scales (101-103 years) is important in comprehensive wildfire management. We present a modeling approach to simulate fuel and fire risk dynamics as well as impacts of alternative fuel treatments. The...

  11. Disruptions, loads, and dynamic response of ITER

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nelson, B.; Riemer, B.; Sayer, R.; Strickler, D.; Barabaschi, P.; Ioki, K.; Johnson, G.; Shimizu, K.; Williamson, D.

    1995-01-01

    Plasma disruptions and the resulting electromagnetic loads are critical to the design of the vacuum vessel and in-vessel components of the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER). This paper describes the status of plasma disruption simulations and related analysis, including the dynamic response of the vacuum vessel and in-vessel components, stresses and deflections in the vacuum vessel, and reaction loads in the support structures

  12. Risk Management and Crisis Response: Are You Prepared?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schirick, Ed

    2002-01-01

    How a camp responds to a crisis may determine whether it can survive financially. Effective risk management requires total commitment from ownership and management, and staff involvement. Steps in formulating a risk management plan include identifying all potential crises and their frequency and severity potential, developing responses,…

  13. Risk-Constrained Dynamic Programming for Optimal Mars Entry, Descent, and Landing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ono, Masahiro; Kuwata, Yoshiaki

    2013-01-01

    A chance-constrained dynamic programming algorithm was developed that is capable of making optimal sequential decisions within a user-specified risk bound. This work handles stochastic uncertainties over multiple stages in the CEMAT (Combined EDL-Mobility Analyses Tool) framework. It was demonstrated by a simulation of Mars entry, descent, and landing (EDL) using real landscape data obtained from the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter. Although standard dynamic programming (DP) provides a general framework for optimal sequential decisionmaking under uncertainty, it typically achieves risk aversion by imposing an arbitrary penalty on failure states. Such a penalty-based approach cannot explicitly bound the probability of mission failure. A key idea behind the new approach is called risk allocation, which decomposes a joint chance constraint into a set of individual chance constraints and distributes risk over them. The joint chance constraint was reformulated into a constraint on an expectation over a sum of an indicator function, which can be incorporated into the cost function by dualizing the optimization problem. As a result, the chance-constraint optimization problem can be turned into an unconstrained optimization over a Lagrangian, which can be solved efficiently using a standard DP approach.

  14. Improving measurement of injection drug risk behavior using item response theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janulis, Patrick

    2014-03-01

    Recent research highlights the multiple steps to preparing and injecting drugs and the resultant viral threats faced by drug users. This research suggests that more sensitive measurement of injection drug HIV risk behavior is required. In addition, growing evidence suggests there are gender differences in injection risk behavior. However, the potential for differential item functioning between genders has not been explored. To explore item response theory as an improved measurement modeling technique that provides empirically justified scaling of injection risk behavior and to examine for potential gender-based differential item functioning. Data is used from three studies in the National Institute on Drug Abuse's Criminal Justice Drug Abuse Treatment Studies. A two-parameter item response theory model was used to scale injection risk behavior and logistic regression was used to examine for differential item functioning. Item fit statistics suggest that item response theory can be used to scale injection risk behavior and these models can provide more sensitive estimates of risk behavior. Additionally, gender-based differential item functioning is present in the current data. Improved measurement of injection risk behavior using item response theory should be encouraged as these models provide increased congruence between construct measurement and the complexity of injection-related HIV risk. Suggestions are made to further improve injection risk behavior measurement. Furthermore, results suggest direct comparisons of composite scores between males and females may be misleading and future work should account for differential item functioning before comparing levels of injection risk behavior.

  15. Method and system for dynamic probabilistic risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dugan, Joanne Bechta (Inventor); Xu, Hong (Inventor)

    2013-01-01

    The DEFT methodology, system and computer readable medium extends the applicability of the PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment) methodology to computer-based systems, by allowing DFT (Dynamic Fault Tree) nodes as pivot nodes in the Event Tree (ET) model. DEFT includes a mathematical model and solution algorithm, supports all common PRA analysis functions and cutsets. Additional capabilities enabled by the DFT include modularization, phased mission analysis, sequence dependencies, and imperfect coverage.

  16. Effectiveness of multi tuned liquid dampers with slat screens for reducing dynamic responses of structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, T. P.; Pham, D. T.; Ngo, K. T.

    2018-04-01

    Reducing vibration in structures under lateral load always attracts many researchers in during pastime, hence the mainly purpose of paper analyzes effectiveness of multiple-tuned liquid dampers for reducing dynamic responses of structures under ground acceleration of earthquakes. In this study, the multi-tuned liquid damper with slat screens (M-TLDWSS) is considered in detail for analyzing dynamic response of multi-degrees of freedom structure due to earthquake, which is more different previous studies. Then, the general equation of motion of the structure and M-TLDWSS under ground acceleration of earthquake is established based on dynamic balance of principle and solved by numerical method in the time domain. The effects of characteristic parameters of M-TLDWSS on dynamic response of the structure are investigated. The results obtained in this study demonstrate that the M-TLDWSS has significantly effectiveness for reducing dynamic response of the structure.

  17. Structural Dynamic Response Compressing Technique in Bridges using a Cochlea-inspired Artificial Filter Bank (CAFB)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heo, G; Jeon, J; Son, B; Kim, C; Jeon, S; Lee, C

    2016-01-01

    In this study, a cochlea-inspired artificial filter bank (CAFB) was developed to efficiently obtain dynamic response of a structure, and a dynamic response measurement of a cable-stayed bridge model was also carried out to evaluate the performance of the developed CAFB. The developed CAFB used a band-pass filter optimizing algorithm (BOA) and peakpicking algorithm (PPA) to select and compress dynamic response signal containing the modal information which was significant enough. The CAFB was then optimized about the El-Centro earthquake wave which was often used in the construction research, and the software implementation of CAFB was finally embedded in the unified structural management system (USMS). For the evaluation of the developed CAFB, a real time dynamic response experiment was performed on a cable-stayed bridge model, and the response of the cable-stayed bridge model was measured using both the traditional wired system and the developed CAFB-based USMS. The experiment results showed that the compressed dynamic response acquired by the CAFB-based USMS matched significantly with that of the traditional wired system while still carrying sufficient modal information of the cable-stayed bridge. (paper)

  18. Phase response curves for models of earthquake fault dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Franović, Igor, E-mail: franovic@ipb.ac.rs [Scientific Computing Laboratory, Institute of Physics Belgrade, University of Belgrade, Pregrevica 118, 11080 Belgrade (Serbia); Kostić, Srdjan [Institute for the Development of Water Resources “Jaroslav Černi,” Jaroslava Černog 80, 11226 Belgrade (Serbia); Perc, Matjaž [Faculty of Natural Sciences and Mathematics, University of Maribor, Koroška cesta 160, SI-2000 Maribor (Slovenia); CAMTP—Center for Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, University of Maribor, Krekova 2, SI-2000 Maribor (Slovenia); Klinshov, Vladimir [Institute of Applied Physics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 46 Ulyanov Street, 603950 Nizhny Novgorod (Russian Federation); Nekorkin, Vladimir [Institute of Applied Physics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 46 Ulyanov Street, 603950 Nizhny Novgorod (Russian Federation); University of Nizhny Novgorod, 23 Prospekt Gagarina, 603950 Nizhny Novgorod (Russian Federation); Kurths, Jürgen [Institute of Applied Physics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 46 Ulyanov Street, 603950 Nizhny Novgorod (Russian Federation); Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14412 Potsdam (Germany); Institute of Physics, Humboldt University Berlin, 12489 Berlin (Germany)

    2016-06-15

    We systematically study effects of external perturbations on models describing earthquake fault dynamics. The latter are based on the framework of the Burridge-Knopoff spring-block system, including the cases of a simple mono-block fault, as well as the paradigmatic complex faults made up of two identical or distinct blocks. The blocks exhibit relaxation oscillations, which are representative for the stick-slip behavior typical for earthquake dynamics. Our analysis is carried out by determining the phase response curves of first and second order. For a mono-block fault, we consider the impact of a single and two successive pulse perturbations, further demonstrating how the profile of phase response curves depends on the fault parameters. For a homogeneous two-block fault, our focus is on the scenario where each of the blocks is influenced by a single pulse, whereas for heterogeneous faults, we analyze how the response of the system depends on whether the stimulus is applied to the block having a shorter or a longer oscillation period.

  19. Phase response curves for models of earthquake fault dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Franović, Igor; Kostić, Srdjan; Perc, Matjaž; Klinshov, Vladimir; Nekorkin, Vladimir; Kurths, Jürgen

    2016-01-01

    We systematically study effects of external perturbations on models describing earthquake fault dynamics. The latter are based on the framework of the Burridge-Knopoff spring-block system, including the cases of a simple mono-block fault, as well as the paradigmatic complex faults made up of two identical or distinct blocks. The blocks exhibit relaxation oscillations, which are representative for the stick-slip behavior typical for earthquake dynamics. Our analysis is carried out by determining the phase response curves of first and second order. For a mono-block fault, we consider the impact of a single and two successive pulse perturbations, further demonstrating how the profile of phase response curves depends on the fault parameters. For a homogeneous two-block fault, our focus is on the scenario where each of the blocks is influenced by a single pulse, whereas for heterogeneous faults, we analyze how the response of the system depends on whether the stimulus is applied to the block having a shorter or a longer oscillation period.

  20. Dynamical anisotropic response of black phosphorus under magnetic field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xuefeng; Lu, Wei; Zhou, Xiaoying; Zhou, Yang; Zhang, Chenglong; Lai, Jiawei; Ge, Shaofeng; Sekhar, M. Chandra; Jia, Shuang; Chang, Kai; Sun, Dong

    2018-04-01

    Black phosphorus (BP) has emerged as a promising material candidate for next generation electronic and optoelectronic devices due to its high mobility, tunable band gap and highly anisotropic properties. In this work, polarization resolved ultrafast mid-infrared transient reflection spectroscopy measurements are performed to study the dynamical anisotropic optical properties of BP under magnetic fields up to 9 T. The relaxation dynamics of photoexcited carrier is found to be insensitive to the applied magnetic field due to the broadening of the Landau levels and large effective mass of carriers. While the anisotropic optical response of BP decreases with increasing magnetic field, its enhancement due to the excitation of hot carriers is similar to that without magnetic field. These experimental results can be well interpreted by the magneto-optical conductivity of the Landau levels of BP thin film, based on an effective k · p Hamiltonian and linear response theory. These findings suggest attractive possibilities of multi-dimensional control of anisotropic response (AR) of BP with light, electric and magnetic field, which further introduces BP to the fantastic magnetic field sensitive applications.

  1. Dynamic Response of Underground Circular Lining Tunnels Subjected to Incident P Waves

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hua Xu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Dynamic stress concentration in tunnels and underground structures during earthquakes often leads to serious structural damage. A series solution of wave equation for dynamic response of underground circular lining tunnels subjected to incident plane P waves is presented by Fourier-Bessel series expansion method in this paper. The deformation and stress fields of the whole medium of surrounding rock and tunnel were obtained by solving the equations of seismic wave propagation in an elastic half space. Based on the assumption of a large circular arc, a series of solutions for dynamic stress were deduced by using a wave function expansion approach for a circular lining tunnel in an elastic half space rock medium subjected to incident plane P waves. Then, the dynamic response of the circular lining tunnel was obtained by solving a series of algebraic equations after imposing its boundary conditions for displacement and stress of the circular lining tunnel. The effects of different factors on circular lining rock tunnels, including incident frequency, incident angle, buried depth, rock conditions, and lining stiffness, were derived and several application examples are presented. The results may provide a good reference for studies on the dynamic response and aseismic design of tunnels and underground structures.

  2. Radioactive waste. Risk, reward, space and time dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duncan, I.J.

    2001-01-01

    This study considers, in a geographical context, issues arising from the disposal of radioactive waste with particular emphasis on societal perceptions of Risk, Trust, NIMBYand Time. It establishes that the wider community now accepts the concepts of 'user pays' and offsetting compensation to any community that accepts a risk, such risk to be minimised and interruptible as necessary. The underlying causes of NIMBYism have been misjudged by industry and this work establishes that they are as much due to exclusion from the decision making process as they are to direct concerns about the social impact, health and environment. The principal cause of NIMBYism is discussed and a procedure to assist siting approval is suggested. This study establishes that industry, government authorities or specialists working alone in this field engender less trust by society than composite bodies including government departments, industry, environmentalists, health, science and society. The dimension of an individual's perception of forward time has been quantified and found to be much shorter than the time required for the isolation of radioactive waste. This research highlights the dynamic nature of all waste isolation processes and proposes a procedure that could render the concept of long term geological disposal more acceptable to the public. It evolved that the disposal of all waste is a dynamic process, the management of which must provide the time necessary for physical and chemical change and to ensure isolation from the biosphere while it remains hazardous. The outcome of this research is applicable to the disposal of all solid hazardous waste. (author)

  3. Topics in Modeling of Cochlear Dynamics: Computation, Response and Stability Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Filo, Maurice G.

    This thesis touches upon several topics in cochlear modeling. Throughout the literature, mathematical models of the cochlea vary according to the degree of biological realism to be incorporated. This thesis casts the cochlear model as a continuous space-time dynamical system using operator language. This framework encompasses a wider class of cochlear models and makes the dynamics more transparent and easier to analyze before applying any numerical method to discretize space. In fact, several numerical methods are investigated to study the computational efficiency of the finite dimensional realizations in space. Furthermore, we study the effects of the active gain perturbations on the stability of the linearized dynamics. The stability analysis is used to explain possible mechanisms underlying spontaneous otoacoustic emissions and tinnitus. Dynamic Mode Decomposition (DMD) is introduced as a useful tool to analyze the response of nonlinear cochlear models. Cochlear response features are illustrated using DMD which has the advantage of explicitly revealing the spatial modes of vibrations occurring in the Basilar Membrane (BM). Finally, we address the dynamic estimation problem of BM vibrations using Extended Kalman Filters (EKF). Due to the limitations of noninvasive sensing schemes, such algorithms are inevitable to estimate the dynamic behavior of a living cochlea.

  4. Movements Indicate Threat Response Phases in Children at Risk for Anxiety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGinnis, Ellen W; McGinnis, Ryan S; Muzik, Maria; Hruschak, Jessica; Lopez-Duran, Nestor L; Perkins, Noel C; Fitzgerald, Kate; Rosenblum, Katherine L

    2017-09-01

    Temporal phases of threat response, including potential threat (anxiety), acute threat (startle, fear), and post-threat response modulation, have been identified as the underlying markers of anxiety disorders. Objective measures of response during these phases may help identify children at risk for anxiety; however, the complexity of current assessment techniques prevent their adoption in many research and clinical contexts. We propose an alternative technology, an inertial measurement unit (IMU), that enables noninvasive measurement of the movements associated with threat response, and test its ability to detect threat response phases in young children at a heightened risk for developing anxiety. We quantified the motion of 18 children (3-7 years old) during an anxiety-/fear-provoking behavioral task using an IMU. Specifically, measurements from a single IMU secured to the child's waist were used to extract root-mean-square acceleration and angular velocity in the horizontal and vertical directions, and tilt and yaw range of motion during each threat response phase. IMU measurements detected expected differences in child motion by threat phase. Additionally, potential threat motion was positively correlated to familial anxiety risk, startle range of motion was positively correlated with child internalizing symptoms, and response modulation motion was negatively correlated to familial anxiety risk. Results suggest differential theory-driven threat response phases and support previous literature connecting maternal child risk to anxiety with behavioral measures using more feasible objective methods. This is the first study demonstrating the utility of an IMU for characterizing the motion of young children to mark the phases of threat response modulation. The technique provides a novel and objective measure of threat response for mental health researchers.

  5. Radiation Dose-Response Relationships and Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Strom, Daniel J.

    2005-01-01

    The notion of a dose-response relationship was probably invented shortly after the discovery of poisons, the invention of alcoholic beverages, and the bringing of fire into a confined space in the forgotten depths of ancient prehistory. The amount of poison or medicine ingested can easily be observed to affect the behavior, health, or sickness outcome. Threshold effects, such as death, could be easily understood for intoxicants, medicine, and poisons. As Paracelsus (1493-1541), the 'father' of modern toxicology said, 'It is the dose that makes the poison.' Perhaps less obvious is the fact that implicit in such dose-response relationships is also the notion of dose rate. Usually, the dose is administered fairly acutely, in a single injection, pill, or swallow; a few puffs on a pipe; or a meal of eating or drinking. The same amount of intoxicants, medicine, or poisons administered over a week or month might have little or no observable effect. Thus, before the discovery of ionizing radiation in the late 19th century, toxicology ('the science of poisons') and pharmacology had deeply ingrained notions of dose-response relationships. This chapter demonstrates that the notion of a dose-response relationship for ionizing radiation is hopelessly simplistic from a scientific standpoint. While useful from a policy or regulatory standpoint, dose-response relationships cannot possibly convey enough information to describe the problem from a quantitative view of radiation biology, nor can they address societal values. Three sections of this chapter address the concepts, observations, and theories that contribute to the scientific input to the practice of managing risks from exposure to ionizing radiation. The presentation begins with irradiation regimes, followed by responses to high and low doses of ionizing radiation, and a discussion of how all of this can inform radiation risk management. The knowledge that is really needed for prediction of individual risk is presented

  6. Numerical Analysis on Variation of Dynamic Response of Girder Bridges with Torsional Reinforcement Panels

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kang Jae-Yoon

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The dynamic flexural behaviour of the railway bridge is influenced by its torsional behaviour. Especially, in the case of girder railway bridges, the dynamic response tends to amplify when the natural frequency in flexure (1st vibration mode is close to that in torsion (2nd vibration mode. In order to prevent such situation, it is necessary to adopt a flexural-to-torsional natural frequency ratio larger than 120%. This study proposes a solution shifting the natural frequency in torsion to high frequency range and restraining torsion by installing concrete panels on the bottom flange of the girder so as to prevent the superposition of the responses in the girder bridge. The applicability of this solution is examined by finite element analysis of the shift of the torsional natural frequency and change in the dynamic response according to the installation of the concrete panels. The analytical results for a 30 m-span girder railway bridge indicate that installing the concrete panels increases the natural frequency in torsion by restraining the torsional behaviour and reduces also the overall dynamic response. It is seen that the installation of 100 mm-thick concrete panels along a section of 4 m at both extremities of the girder can reduce the dynamic response by more than 30%.

  7. Using risk based tools in emergency response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dixon, B.W.; Ferns, K.G.

    1987-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) techniques are used by the nuclear industry to model the potential response of a reactor subjected to unusual conditions. The knowledge contained in these models can aid in emergency response decision making. This paper presents requirements for a PRA based emergency response support system to date. A brief discussion of published work provides background for a detailed description of recent developments. A rapid deep assessment capability for specific portions of full plant models is presented. The program uses a screening rule base to control search space expansion in a combinational algorithm

  8. Assessment of the dynamic response of systems and measures to enhance their safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Serban, Viorel; Androne, Marian; Ciocan, George Alexandru; Zamfir, Madalina; Florea, Ioana; Panait, Adrian; Prisecaru, Ilie

    2007-01-01

    Buildings, equipment and pipe networks are dynamically, oscillating structures that may build-up energy or not, from the excitation, amplifying or damping their response as a function of the rate between the system vibration Eigen period and the repetition period of the dynamic excitation and the system damping capacity. This paper is an analysis in time and frequency of the dynamic response of an oscillating system subject to a periodic excitation. The results of the conducted analysis show how a system must be sized for the transfer of energy from excitation to the system be minimized, the system builds-up as less kinetic and elastic energy as possible and the system response to accelerations, velocity and distortions be also minimal. (author)

  9. Vibrotactile Feedback Alters Dynamics Of Static Postural Control In Persons With Parkinson's Disease But Not Older Adults At High Fall Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    High, Carleigh M; McHugh, Hannah F; Mills, Stephen C; Amano, Shinichi; Freund, Jane E; Vallabhajosula, Srikant

    2018-06-01

    Aging and Parkinson's disease are often associated with impaired postural control. Providing extrinsic feedback via vibrotactile sensation could supplement intrinsic feedback to maintain postural control. We investigated the postural control response to vibrotactile feedback provided at the trunk during challenging stance conditions in older adults at high fall risk and individuals with Parkinson's disease compared to healthy older adults. Nine older adults at high fall risk, 9 persons with Parkinson's disease and 10 healthy older adults performed 30s quiet standing on a force platform under five challenging stance conditions with eyes open/closed and standing on firm/foam surface with feet together, each with and without vibrotactile feedback. During vibrotactile feedback trials, feedback was provided when participants swayed >10% over the center of their base of support. Participants were instructed vibrations would be in response to their movement. Magnitude of postural sway was estimated using center of pressure path length, velocity, and sway area. Dynamics of individuals' postural control was evaluated using detrended fluctuation analysis. Results showed that vibrotactile feedback induced a change in postural control dynamics among persons with Parkinson's disease when standing with intact intrinsic visual input and altered intrinsic somatosensory input, but there was no change in sway magnitude. However, use of vibrotactile feedback did not significantly alter dynamics of postural control in older adults with high risk of falling or reduce the magnitude of sway. Considering the effects of vibrotactile feedback were dependent on the population and stance condition, designing an optimal therapeutic regimen for balance training should be carefully considered and be specific to a target population. Furthermore, our results suggest that explicit instructions on how to respond to the vibrotactile feedback could affect training outcome. Copyright © 2018 The

  10. Risk-premia, Carry-trade Dynamics, and Economic Value of Currency Speculation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wagner, Christian

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, we derive the dynamics and assess the economic value of currency speculation by formalizing the concept of a trader inaction range. We show that exchange rate returns comprise a time-varying risk-premium and that uncovered interest parity (UIP) holds in a speculative sense. The often......-cited ‘forward bias puzzle’ originates from the omission of the risk-premium in standard UIP tests. Consistent with its popularity among market professionals, the carry-trade strategy can be rationalized as it systematically collects risk-premia, however, the economic value generated by bilateral carry-trades...

  11. Drug response prediction in high-risk multiple myeloma

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vangsted, A J; Helm-Petersen, S; Cowland, J B

    2018-01-01

    from high-risk patients by GEP70 at diagnosis from Total Therapy 2 and 3A to predict the response by the DRP score of drugs used in the treatment of myeloma patients. The DRP score stratified patients further. High-risk myeloma with a predicted sensitivity to melphalan by the DRP score had a prolonged...

  12. Risk assessment of main control board fire using fire dynamics simulator

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kang, Dae Il, E-mail: dikang@kaeri.re.kr [KAERI, 1045 Daedeokdaero, Yuseong-Gu, Daejeon 305-353 (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Kilyoo; Jang, Seung-Cheol [KAERI, 1045 Daedeokdaero, Yuseong-Gu, Daejeon 305-353 (Korea, Republic of); Yoo, Seong Yeon [Chungnam National University, 79, Daehagro, Yuseong-Gu, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-08-15

    Highlights: • A decision tree for evaluating the risk of a main control board (MCB) fire was proposed to systematically determine the MCB fire scenarios. • Fire simulations using fire dynamics simulator (FDS) were performed to estimate the time to MCR abandonment. • Non-propagating and propagating fire scenarios were considered for fire simulations. • The current study indicates that the quantification of the MCB fire risk should address the propagating fire and non-propagating fire scenarios if the MCB has no internal barriers between the panels. - Abstract: This paper presents the process and results of a risk assessment for a main control board (MCB) fire using fire dynamics simulator (FDS). A decision tree for evaluating the risk of a MCB fire was proposed to systematically determine the MCB fire scenarios, and fire simulations using FDS were performed to estimate the time to MCR abandonment. As a reference NPP for this study, Hanul unit 3 in Korea was selected and its core damage frequency (CDF) owing to the MCB fire was quantified. Two types of fire scenarios were considered for fire simulations: non-propagating fire scenarios occurring within a single MCB panel and propagating fire scenarios spreading from one control panel to the adjacent panels. Further, the fire scenarios were classified into fires with and without a heating, ventilation, and air conditioning system (HVACS). The fire simulation results showed that the major factor causing the MCR evacuation was the optical density irrelevant to the availability of the HVACS. The risk assessment results showed that the abandonment fire scenario risk was less than the non-abandonment fire scenario risk and the propagating fire scenario risk was greater than the non-propagating fire scenario risk.

  13. Risk assessment of main control board fire using fire dynamics simulator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, Dae Il; Kim, Kilyoo; Jang, Seung-Cheol; Yoo, Seong Yeon

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • A decision tree for evaluating the risk of a main control board (MCB) fire was proposed to systematically determine the MCB fire scenarios. • Fire simulations using fire dynamics simulator (FDS) were performed to estimate the time to MCR abandonment. • Non-propagating and propagating fire scenarios were considered for fire simulations. • The current study indicates that the quantification of the MCB fire risk should address the propagating fire and non-propagating fire scenarios if the MCB has no internal barriers between the panels. - Abstract: This paper presents the process and results of a risk assessment for a main control board (MCB) fire using fire dynamics simulator (FDS). A decision tree for evaluating the risk of a MCB fire was proposed to systematically determine the MCB fire scenarios, and fire simulations using FDS were performed to estimate the time to MCR abandonment. As a reference NPP for this study, Hanul unit 3 in Korea was selected and its core damage frequency (CDF) owing to the MCB fire was quantified. Two types of fire scenarios were considered for fire simulations: non-propagating fire scenarios occurring within a single MCB panel and propagating fire scenarios spreading from one control panel to the adjacent panels. Further, the fire scenarios were classified into fires with and without a heating, ventilation, and air conditioning system (HVACS). The fire simulation results showed that the major factor causing the MCR evacuation was the optical density irrelevant to the availability of the HVACS. The risk assessment results showed that the abandonment fire scenario risk was less than the non-abandonment fire scenario risk and the propagating fire scenario risk was greater than the non-propagating fire scenario risk

  14. Dynamic characterization of satellite assembly for responsive space applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mascarenas, David; Macknelly, David; Mullins, Josh; Wiest, Heather; Park, Gyuhae

    2013-01-01

    The rapid deployment of satellites for responsive space surveillance applications is hindered by the need to flight-qualify their components and the resulting mechanical assembly. Conventional methods for qualification testing of satellite components are costly and time consuming. Furthermore, full-scale vehicles must be subjected to simulated launch loads during testing, and this harsh testing environment increases the risk of damage to satellite components during qualification. This work focuses on replacing this potentially destructive testing procedure with a non-destructive structural health monitoring (SHM)-based technique while maintaining the same level of confidence in the testing procedure's ability to qualify the satellite for flight. We focus on assessing the performance of SHM techniques to replace the high-cost qualification procedure and to localize faults introduced by improper assembly. The goal of this work is to create a dual-use system that can both assist in the process of qualifying the satellite for launch, as well as provide continuous structural integrity monitoring during manufacture, transport, launch and deployment. SHM techniques were applied on a small-scale structure representative of a responsive satellite. The test structure consisted of an extruded aluminum space-frame covered with aluminum shear plates assembled using bolted joints. Multiple piezoelectric transducers were bonded to the test structure and acted as combined actuators and sensors. Piezoelectric active-sensing based techniques, including measurements of low-frequency global frequency response functions and high-frequency wave propagation techniques, were employed. Using these methods in conjunction with finite element modeling, the dynamic properties of the test structure were established and areas of potential damage could be identified and localized. A procedure for guiding the effective placement of the sensors and actuators is also outlined. (paper)

  15. Artificial Neural Network-Based Early-Age Concrete Strength Monitoring Using Dynamic Response Signals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Junkyeong; Lee, Chaggil; Park, Seunghee

    2017-06-07

    Concrete is one of the most common materials used to construct a variety of civil infrastructures. However, since concrete might be susceptible to brittle fracture, it is essential to confirm the strength of concrete at the early-age stage of the curing process to prevent unexpected collapse. To address this issue, this study proposes a novel method to estimate the early-age strength of concrete, by integrating an artificial neural network algorithm with a dynamic response measurement of the concrete material. The dynamic response signals of the concrete, including both electromechanical impedances and guided ultrasonic waves, are obtained from an embedded piezoelectric sensor module. The cross-correlation coefficient of the electromechanical impedance signals and the amplitude of the guided ultrasonic wave signals are selected to quantify the variation in dynamic responses according to the strength of the concrete. Furthermore, an artificial neural network algorithm is used to verify a relationship between the variation in dynamic response signals and concrete strength. The results of an experimental study confirm that the proposed approach can be effectively applied to estimate the strength of concrete material from the early-age stage of the curing process.

  16. Reduction of the dynamic response by aircraft crash on building structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krutzik, N.J.

    1988-01-01

    Through the use of the double-shell concept the dynamic loads applied by a hypothetical aircraft impact as well as the response of the structure can be reduced significantly. Steel-fiber-reinforced concrete shells with thicknesses of about 0.8 m have a sufficient nonlinear capacity for loads applied by a military airplane such as the Phantom jet. The secondary impact after damage of the outer shell as well as the dynamic response of the structure can be additionally reduced using damping material supporting the impacted shell. Construction of the double shell design does not result in any practical problems. (orig./HP)

  17. Dynamic response of a multielement HTGR core

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reich, M.; Bezler, P.; Koplik, B.; Curreri, J.; Goradia, H.; Lasker, L.

    1977-01-01

    One of the primary factors in determining the structural integrity and consequently the safety of a High Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor (HTGR) is the dynamic response of the core when subjected to a seismic excitation. The HTGR core under consideration consists of several thousands of hexagonal elements arranged in vertical stacks containing about eight elements per stack. There are clearance gaps between adjacent elements, which can change substantially due to radiation effects produced during their active lifetime. Surrounding the outer periphery of the core are reflector blocks and restraining spring-pack arrangements which bear against the reactor vessel structure (PCRV). Earthquake input motions to this type of core arrangement will result in multiple impacts between adjacent elements as well as between the reflector blocks and the restraining spring packs. The highly complex nonlinear response associated with the multiple collisions across the clearance gaps and with the spring packs is the subject matter of this paper. Of particular importance is the ability to analyze a complex nonlinear system with gaps by employing a model with a reduced number of masses. This is necessary in order to obtain solutions in a time-frame and at a cost which is not too expensive. In addition the effect of variations in total clearance as well as the initial distribution of clearances between adjacent elements is of primary concern. Both of these aspects of the problem are treated in the present analysis. Finally, by constraining the motion of the reflector blocks, a more realistic description of the dynamic response of the multi-element HTGR core is obtained

  18. Dynamism of Stimuli-Responsive Nanohybrids: Environmental Implications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaime Plazas-Tuttle

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Nanomaterial science and design have shifted from generating single passive nanoparticles to more complex and adaptive multi-component nanohybrids. These adaptive nanohybrids (ANHs are designed to simultaneously perform multiple functions, while actively responding to the surrounding environment. ANHs are engineered for use as drug delivery carriers, in tissue-engineered templates and scaffolds, adaptive clothing, smart surface coatings, electrical switches and in platforms for diversified functional applications. Such ANHs are composed of carbonaceous, metallic or polymeric materials with stimuli-responsive soft-layer coatings that enable them to perform such switchable functions. Since ANHs are engineered to dynamically transform under different exposure environments, evaluating their environmental behavior will likely require new approaches. Literature on polymer science has established a knowledge core on stimuli-responsive materials. However, translation of such knowledge to environmental health and safety (EHS of these ANHs has not yet been realized. It is critical to investigate and categorize the potential hazards of ANHs, because exposure in an unintended or shifting environment could present uncertainty in EHS. This article presents a perspective on EHS evaluation of ANHs, proposes a principle to facilitate their identification for environmental evaluation, outlines a stimuli-based classification for ANHs and discusses emerging properties and dynamic aspects for systematic EHS evaluation.

  19. Right mesial temporal lobe epilepsy impairs empathy-related brain responses to dynamic fearful faces.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toller, Gianina; Adhimoolam, Babu; Grunwald, Thomas; Huppertz, Hans-Jürgen; Kurthen, Martin; Rankin, Katherine P; Jokeit, Hennric

    2015-03-01

    Unilateral mesial temporal lobe epilepsy (MTLE) has been associated with reduced amygdala responsiveness to fearful faces. However, the effect of unilateral MTLE on empathy-related brain responses in extra-amygdalar regions has not been investigated. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging, we measured empathy-related brain responses to dynamic fearful faces in 34 patients with unilateral MTLE (18 right sided), in an epilepsy (extra-MTLE; n = 16) and in a healthy control group (n = 30). The primary finding was that right MTLE (RMTLE) was associated with decreased activity predominantly in the right amygdala and also in bilateral periaqueductal gray (PAG) but normal activity in the right anterior insula. The results of the extra-MTLE group demonstrate that these reduced amygdala and PAG responses go beyond the attenuation caused by antiepileptic and antidepressant medication. These findings clearly indicate that RMTLE affects the function of mesial temporal and midbrain structures that mediate basic interoceptive input necessary for the emotional awareness of empathic experiences of fear. Together with the decreased empathic concern found in the RMTLE group, this study provides neurobehavioral evidence that patients with RMTLE are at increased risk for reduced empathy towards others' internal states and sheds new light on the nature of social-cognitive impairments frequently accompanying MTLE.

  20. The Legal Risks of Social Responsibility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drechsel, Robert E.

    By scrutinizing the extensive and growing literature on media ethics and media codes, as well as the current history of litigation in libel cases, this paper analyzes the risks presented by journalistic social responsibility in the context of expanding tort liability for what might loosely be called journalistic malpractice. Following a review of…

  1. Dynamics of the flood response to slow-fast landscape-climate feedbacks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. A. P. Perdigão

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The dynamical evolution of the flood response to landscape-climate feedbacks is evaluated in a joint nonlinear statistical-dynamical approach. For that purpose, a spatiotemporal sensitivity analysis is conducted on hydrological data from 1976–2008 over 804 catchments throughout Austria, and a general, data-independent nonlinear dynamical model is built linking floods with climate (via precipitation, landscape (via elevation and their feedbacks. These involve nonlinear scale interactions, with landform evolution processes taking place at the millennial scale (slow dynamics, and climate adjusting in years to decades (fast dynamics. The results show that floods are more responsive to spatial (regional than to temporal (decadal variability. Catchments from dry lowlands and high wetlands exhibit similarity between the spatial and temporal sensitivities (spatiotemporal symmetry and low landscape-climate codependence, suggesting they are not coevolving significantly. However, intermediate regions show differences between those sensitivities (symmetry breaks and higher landscape-climate codependence, suggesting undergoing coevolution. The break of symmetry is an emergent behaviour from nonlinear feedbacks within the system. A new coevolution index is introduced relating spatiotemporal symmetry with relative characteristic celerities, which need to be taken into account in hydrological space-time trading. Coevolution is expressed here by the interplay between slow and fast dynamics, represented respectively by spatial and temporal characteristics. The dynamical model captures emerging features of the flood dynamics and nonlinear landscape-climate feedbacks, supporting the nonlinear statistical assessment of spatiotemporally asymmetric flood change. Moreover, it enables the dynamical estimation of flood changes in space and time from the given knowledge at different spatiotemporal conditions. This study ultimately brings to light emerging signatures of

  2. Dynamic response analysis of single-span guideway caused by high speed maglev train

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jin Shi

    Full Text Available High speed maglev is one of the most important reformations in the ground transportation systems because of its no physical contact nature. This paper intends to study the dynamic response of the single-span guideway induced by moving maglev train. The dynamic model of the maglev train-guideway system is established. In this model, a maglev train consists of three vehicles and each vehicle is regarded as a multibody system with 34 degrees-of-freedom. The guideway is modeled as a simply supported beam. Considering the motion-dependent nature of electromagnetic forces in the maglev system, an iterative approach is presented to compute the dynamic response of a maglev train-guideway system. The histories of the train traversing the guideways are simulated and the dynamic responses of the guideway and the train vehicles are calculated. A field experiment is carried out to verify the results of the analysis. The resonant conditions of single-span guideway are analyzed. The results show that all the dynamic indexes of train-guideway system are far less than permissive values of railway and maglev system, the vertical resonant of guideways caused by periodical excitations of the train will not happen.

  3. Analysis of the Dynamic Response in the Railway Vehicles to the Track Vertical Irregularities. Part I: The Theoretical Model and the Vehicle Response Functions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Dumitriu

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The paper herein focuses on the dynamic response of a two-bogie vehicle to the excitations derived from the track vertical irregularities. The symmetrical and antisymmetrical modes due from the bounce and pitch motions of the axles’ planes in the two bogies are being considered. The analysis of the dynamic response in the vehicle relies on the response functions in three reference points of the carbody, composed by means of these response functions to the symmetrical and antisymmetrical excitation modes. Similarly, the dynamic response of the vehicle to the track stochastic irregularities is examined and expressed as a power spectral density of the carbody vertical acceleration and the root mean square of the acceleration and the index of the partial comfort to the vertical vibrations is calculated. The paper is structured into two parts. The Part I includes all the theoretical elements required for the analysis of the dynamic response in the vehicle, while Part II introduces the results of the numerical analysis.

  4. Active muscle response contributes to increased injury risk of lower extremity in occupant-knee airbag interaction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nie, Bingbing; Sathyanarayan, Deepak; Ye, Xin; Crandall, Jeff R; Panzer, Matthew B

    2018-02-28

    Recent field data analysis has demonstrated that knee airbags (KABs) can reduce occupant femur and pelvis injuries but may be insufficient to decrease leg injuries in motor vehicle crashes. An enhanced understanding of the associated injury mechanisms requires accurate assessment of physiological-based occupant parameters, some of which are difficult or impossible to obtain from experiments. This study sought to explore how active muscle response can influence the injury risk of lower extremities during KAB deployment using computational biomechanical analysis. A full-factorial matrix, consisting of 48 finite element simulations of a 50th percentile occupant human model in a simplified vehicle interior, was designed. The matrix included 32 new cases in combination with 16 previously reported cases. The following influencing factors were taken into account: muscle activation, KAB use, KAB design, pre-impact seating position, and crash mode. Responses of 32 lower extremity muscles during emergency braking were replicated using one-dimensional elements of a Hill-type constitutive model, with the activation level determined from inverse dynamics and validated by existing volunteer tests. Dynamics of unfolding and inflating of the KABs were represented using the state-of-the-art corpuscular particle method. Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) 2+ injury risks of the knee-thigh-hip (KTH) complex and the tibia were assessed using axial force and resultant bending moments. With all simulation cases being taken together, a general linear model was used to assess factor significance (P systems. Future efforts are recommended on realistic vehicle and restraint environment and advanced modeling strategies toward a full understanding of KAB efficacy.

  5. Predicting responsiveness to intervention in dyslexia using dynamic assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aravena, S.; Tijms, J.; Snellings, P.; van der Molen, M.W.

    In the current study we examined the value of a dynamic test for predicting responsiveness to reading intervention for children diagnosedwith dyslexia. The test consisted of a 20-minute training aimed at learning eight basic letter–speech sound correspondences within an artificial orthography,

  6. Dynamic Characterization and Impulse Response Modeling of Amplitude and Phase Response of Silicon Nanowires

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cleary, Ciaran S.; Ji, Hua; Dailey, James M.

    2013-01-01

    Amplitude and phase dynamics of silicon nanowires were measured using time-resolved spectroscopy. Time shifts of the maximum phase change and minimum amplitude as a function of pump power due to saturation of the free-carrier density were observed. A phenomenological impulse response model used t...

  7. Response analysis of the dynamic excitation of hen eggs

    OpenAIRE

    Libor Severa

    2007-01-01

    Commercially produced hen eggs have been tested by means of dynamic excitation of the egg-shells with following analysis of their response. The falling steel ball have been chosen as a exciting instrument and the laser vibrometer have been used as a measuring device for the egg response. The reproductibility of the experiments has been relatively high and the surface velocity has been found to be significantly dependent on the position around the meridian. Analysed frequency spectrum has show...

  8. Technical risk - individual responsibility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herzog, R.

    1984-01-01

    The author, vice-president of the Federal Constitutional Court, delivered this opening address at the international symposium on nuclear liability held in Munich in September 1984 by OECD/NEA and IAEA. He starts by asking: Where does danger begin, where does risk end. It is the true and original task of the state to keep damage away from its citizens: this entails the obligation for additional garantees - not withstanding an almost greatest possible degree of safety - to at least helpfully compensate damage incurred, should such damage arise. In case of really severe accidents the essential thing is not the operator's liability but the entry of the state into that obligation, and this fact remains unchanged even if the maximum limits of liability were raised or in case of their removal. Therefore it is not necessary to be cautious about the question of unlimited liability, i.e. the unlimited entry of the state into such obligations, especially as all those responsible are convinced that there is practically no risk of that contingency occurring. (HSCH) [de

  9. Dynamic response of multiple nanobeam system under a moving nanoparticle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shahrokh Hosseini Hashemi

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available In this article, nonlocal continuum based model of multiple nanobeam system (MNBS under a moving nanoparticle is investigated using Eringen’s nonlocal theory. Beam layers are assumed to be coupled by winkler elastic medium and the nonlocal Euler-Bernoulli beam theory is used to model each layer of beam. The Hamilton’s principle, Eigen function technique and the Laplace transform method are employed to solve the governing equations. Analytical solutions of the transverse displacements for MNBs with simply supported boundary condition are presented for double layered and three layered MNBSs. For higher number of layers, the governing set of equations is solved numerically and the results are presented. This study shows that small-scale parameter has a significant effect on dynamic response of MNBS under a moving nanoparticle. Sensitivity of dynamical deflection to variation of nonlocal parameter, stiffness of Winkler elastic medium and number of nanobeams are presented in nondimensional form for each layer. Keywords: Dynamic response, Analytical solution, Moving particle, Nanobeam, Multi-layered nanobeam

  10. Dynamic Multi-Factor Credit Risk Model with Fat-Tailed Factors

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Gapko, Petr; Šmíd, Martin

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 62, č. 2 (2012), s. 125-140 ISSN 0015-1920 R&D Projects: GA ČR GD402/09/H045; GA ČR GA402/09/0965 Grant - others:Univerzita Karlova(CZ) GAUK 46108 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : credit risk * probability of default * loss given default * credit loss * credit loss distribution * Basel II Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.340, year: 2012 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2012/E/smid-dynamic multi-factor credit risk model with fat-tailed factors.pdf

  11. Dynamic Response and Fracture of Composite Gun Tubes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jerome T. Tzeng

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available The fracture behavior due to dynamic response in a composite gun tube subjected to a moving pressure has been investigated. The resonance of stress waves result in very high amplitude and frequency strains in the tube at the instant and location of pressure front passage as the velocity of the projectile approaches a critical value. The cyclic stresses can accelerate crack propagation in the gun tube with an existing imperfection and significantly shorten the fatigue life of gun tubes. The fracture mechanism induced by dynamic amplification effects is particularly critical for composite overwrap barrels because of a multi-material construction, anisotropic material properties, and the potential of thermal degradation.

  12. On the influence of the foundation stiffness in the structural dynamic response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Halbritter, A.L.; Koishi, N.; Stukart, R.N.L.

    1984-01-01

    To consider the influence of the foundation on the structural dynamic analysis, it is usual to represent the foundation stiffness by springs and the damping by snubbers, in the structural model. The stiffness and the damping values of the foundation can be determined by approximate methods based on simplifying assumptions, using, for example, the formula derived from the half space theory or numerical methods. The foundation stiffness has a great influence on the dynamic characteristics of the structure (eigenvalues and eigenvectors), and together with the damping influence the structural dynamic response. In this paper the influence of the foundation stiffness on the floor response spectra of the reactor building of a NPP of 1300 MW PWR of KWU type is studied. (Author) [pt

  13. Simulation of the dynamic response of radioactive material shipping package - railcar systems during coupling operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fields, S.R.

    1981-12-01

    The basic equations of the computer model CARDS (Cask-Railcar Dynamic Simulator), developed for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission to simulate the dynamic behavior of radioactive material shipping package - railcar systems, are presented. A companion model, CARRS (Casks Railcar Response Spectrum Generator), that generates system response as frequency response spectra is also presented in terms of its basic equations

  14. Simulation of the dynamic response of radioactive material shipping package-railcar systems during coupling operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fields, S.R.

    1983-10-01

    The basic equations of the computer model CARDS (Cask-Railcar Dynamic Simulator), developed for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission to simulate the dynamic behavior of radioactive material shipping package - railcar systems, are presented. A companion model, CARRS (Cask Railcar Response Spectrum Generator), that generates system response as frequency response spectra is also presented in terms of its basic equations. 1 reference, 18 figures

  15. Dynamic response modelling and characterization of a vertical electrothermal actuator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Lijie; Uttamchandani, Deepak

    2009-01-01

    Mathematical modelling and characterization of the dynamic response of a microelectromechanical system (MEMS) electrothermal actuator are presented in this paper. The mathematical model is based on a second-order partial differential equation (one-dimensional heat transfer) and a second-order ordinary differential equation (mechanical dynamic equation). The simulations are implemented using the piecewise finite difference method and the Runge–Kutta algorithm. The electrothermal modelling includes thermal conduction, convective thermal loss and radiation effects. The temperature dependence of resistivity and thermal conductivity of single crystal silicon have also been taken into consideration in the electrothermal modelling. It is calculated from the simulation results that the 'cold' beam of the electrothermal actuator is not only a mechanical constraint but also a thermal response compensation structure. The 0–90% electrothermal rise times for the individual 'hot' and 'cold' beams are calculated to be 32.9 ms and 42.8 ms, respectively, while the 0–90% electrothermal rise time for the whole actuator is calculated to be 17.3 ms. Nonlinear cubic stiffness has been considered in the thermal-mechanical modelling. Dynamic performances of the device have been characterized using a laser vibrometer, and the 0–90% thermal response time of the whole structure has been measured to be 16.8 ms, which matches well with the modelling results. The displacements of the device under different driving conditions and at resonant frequency have been modelled and measured, and the results from both modelling and experiment agree reasonably well. This work provides a comprehensive understanding of the dynamic behaviour of the electrothermal actuation mechanism. The model will be useful for designing control systems for microelectrothermal actuated devices

  16. Risk assessment of oil price from static and dynamic modelling approaches

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mi, Zhi-Fu; Wei, Yi-Ming; Tang, Bao-Jun

    2017-01-01

    ) and GARCH model on the basis of generalized error distribution (GED). The results show that EVT is a powerful approach to capture the risk in the oil markets. On the contrary, the traditional variance–covariance (VC) and Monte Carlo (MC) approaches tend to overestimate risk when the confidence level is 95......%, but underestimate risk at the confidence level of 99%. The VaR of WTI returns is larger than that of Brent returns at identical confidence levels. Moreover, the GED-GARCH model can estimate the downside dynamic VaR accurately for WTI and Brent oil returns....

  17. Relationship dynamics and sexual risk behaviour of male partners of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A few men also admitted to being motivated by material and financial benefits from sex workers who they perceived as being rich and this was one factor that helped them sustain the relationships. These findings offer insights into the complex relationship dynamics within high risk sexual partnerships. However, the findings ...

  18. Risk factors for discordant immune response among HIV-infected ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Risk factors for discordant immune response among HIV-infected patients initiating antiretroviral therapy: A retrospective cohort study. ... Multivariate logistic regression models were used to estimate adjusted odds ratios (AORs) to determine associations between discordant immune response and clinical and demographic ...

  19. Research on Power Producer’s Bidding Behavior Based on the Best-Response Dynamic Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jingqi Sun

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available As China’s electricity market is facing many problems, the research on power producer’s bidding behavior can promote the healthy and sustainable development of China’s electricity market. As a special commodity, the “electricity” possesses complicated production process. The instable market constraint condition, nonsymmetric information, and a lot of random factors make the producer’s bidding process more complex. Best-response dynamic is one of the classic dynamic mechanisms of the evolutionary game theory, which applies well in the repeated game and strategy evolution that happen among a few bounded rational players with a quick learning capability. The best-response dynamic mechanism is employed to study the power producer’s bidding behavior in this paper, the producer’s best-response dynamic model is constructed, and how the producers would engage in bidding is analyzed in detail. Taking two generating units in South China regional electricity market as the example, the producer’s bidding behavior by following the producer’s best-response dynamic model is verified. The relationships between the evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS of power producer’s bidding and the market demand, and ceiling and floor price as well as biding frequency are discussed in detail.

  20. Dynamic response analysis of DFB fibre lasers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yujun, Qian; Varming, Poul; Povlsen, Jørn Hedegaard

    1998-01-01

    We present a model for relative intensity noise (RIN) in DFB fibre lasers which predicts measured characteristics accurately. Calculation results implies that the RIN decreases rapidly with stronger Bragg grating and higher pump power. We propose here a simplified model based on three spatially...... independent rate equations to describe the dynamic response of erbium doped DFB fibre lasers on pump power fluctuations, using coupled-mode theory to calculate the steady-state hole-burning of the erbium ion inversion...

  1. Dynamic characteristics and structural response of the SWR 1000 under earthquake loading conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bielor, E.; Brettschuh, W.; Krutzik, N.J.; Tropp, R.

    2001-01-01

    Based on the conceptual design documentation of the SWR 1000 reactor building as well as specified representative seismological, and soil-dynamic input data, corresponding to prospective sites as a basis, the dynamic characteristics, as well as the in-structure dynamic response of the coupled vibrating structures have been elaborated. The structural design analysis was based on a 3-dimensional mathematical model of the building in which all details of the internal structures as well as the containment including the water in the pools were represented adequately. In order to demonstrate the influence of the soil-structure interaction effects on the dynamic response results, the soil was represented by two different assumptions. At first, considering the state of the art procedures, assuming frequency independent soil capabilities (equivalent stiffnesses and damping values), time domain calculations were carried out. In the second step, based on the frequency-dependency of the soil capabilities, frequency domain calculations were performed. The structural responses obtained by means of both procedures and the same mathematical model of the structures were evaluated and compared. The suitability of the preliminary design concept are discussed and the structural response results obtained on the basis of the bearing capacity and the stresses in the characteristic regions of the structure

  2. Individual radiation response of parotid glands investigated by dynamic 11C-methionine PET

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buus, Simon; Grau, Cai; Munk, Ole Lajord; Rodell, Anders; Jensen, Kenneth; Mouridsen, Kim; Keiding, Susanne

    2006-01-01

    Background and Purpose: Previously, we showed that the net metabolic clearance of 11 C-methionine of the parotid gland, K, calculated from dynamic 11 C-methionine PET, can be used as a measure of parotid gland function. The aim of this study was to investigate by dynamic 11 C-methionine PET the individual radiation dose response relationship of parotid glands in head and neck cancer patients. Patients and methods: Twelve head and neck cancer patients were examined by dynamic 11 C-methionine PET after radiotherapy. Parametric images of K were generated, co-registered and compared voxel-by-voxel with the 3D radiation dose plan within the parotid gland to assess the individual radiation dose-function relationship. Results: In each patient, voxel-values of K decreased with increasing radiation dose. Population based analysis showed a sigmoid dose response relationship of parotid gland, from which we estimated a threshold radiation dose of 16 Gy and a mean TD 5 of 30 Gy. TD 5 ranged from 7 to 50 Gy in the group of patients. Conclusions: Individual radiation dose response of parotid glands can be measured by dynamic 11 C-methionine PET. The dose response analysis revealed a sigmoid relationship, a threshold radiation dose of 16 Gy, and a mean TD 5 of 30 Gy

  3. Exploring the Dynamics of Responses to Food Production Shocks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aled Jones

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Food production shocks can lead to food crises where access to appropriate quantities and quality of food become inadequate, unaffordable, or unreliable on a major scale. While the physical causes of food production shocks are well researched, the dynamics of responses to them are less well understood. This paper reviews those dynamics and includes evidence gathered via interviews of 44 expert practitioners sourced globally from academia, government, industry, think-tanks, and development/relief organizations. The paper confirms that policy interventions are often prioritised for national interests and poorly coordinated at regional and global scales. The paper acknowledges future compounding trends such as climate change and demographic shifts and suggests that while there are signs of incremental progress in better managing the impacts of shock events, coordinated responses at scale will require a paradigm shift involving major policy, market, and technological advancements, and a wide range of public and private sector stakeholders.

  4. A generalised Dynamic Overflow Risk Assessment (DORA) for Real Time Control of urban drainage systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vezzaro, Luca; Grum, Morten

    2014-01-01

    An innovative and generalised approach to the integrated Real Time Control of urban drainage systems is presented. The Dynamic Overflow Risk Assessment (DORA) strategy aims to minimise the expected Combined Sewer Overflow (CSO) risk by considering (i) the water volume presently stored in the drai......An innovative and generalised approach to the integrated Real Time Control of urban drainage systems is presented. The Dynamic Overflow Risk Assessment (DORA) strategy aims to minimise the expected Combined Sewer Overflow (CSO) risk by considering (i) the water volume presently stored...... and their uncertainty contributed to further improving the performance of drainage systems. The results of this paper will contribute to the wider usage of global RTC methods in the management of urban drainage networks....

  5. Decision Making and Risk Management in Adventure Sports Coaching

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins, Loel; Collins, Dave

    2013-01-01

    Adventure sport coaches practice in environments that are dynamic and high in risk, both perceived and actual. The inherent risks associated with these activities, individuals' responses and the optimal exploitation of both combine to make the processes of risk management more complex and hazardous than the traditional sports where risk management…

  6. The development and application of dynamic operational risk assessment in oil/gas and chemical process industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang Xiaole; Mannan, M. Sam

    2010-01-01

    A methodology of dynamic operational risk assessment (DORA) is proposed for operational risk analysis in oil/gas and chemical industries. The methodology is introduced comprehensively starting from the conceptual framework design to mathematical modeling and to decision making based on cost-benefit analysis. The probabilistic modeling part of DORA integrates stochastic modeling and process dynamics modeling to evaluate operational risk. The stochastic system-state trajectory is modeled according to the abnormal behavior or failure of each component. For each of the possible system-state trajectories, a process dynamics evaluation is carried out to check whether process variables, e.g., level, flow rate, temperature, pressure, or chemical concentration, remain in their desirable regions. Component testing/inspection intervals and repair times are critical parameters to define the system-state configuration, and play an important role for evaluating the probability of operational failure. This methodology not only provides a framework to evaluate the dynamic operational risk in oil/gas and chemical industries, but also guides the process design and further optimization. To illustrate the probabilistic study, we present a case-study of a level control in an oil/gas separator at an offshore plant.

  7. Post-1980 shifts in the sensitivity of boreal tree growth to North Atlantic Ocean dynamics and seasonal climate. Tree growth responses to North Atlantic Ocean dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ols, Clémentine; Trouet, Valerie; Girardin, Martin P.; Hofgaard, Annika; Bergeron, Yves; Drobyshev, Igor

    2018-06-01

    The mid-20th century changes in North Atlantic Ocean dynamics, e.g. slow-down of the Atlantic meridional overturning thermohaline circulation (AMOC), have been considered as early signs of tipping points in the Earth climate system. We hypothesized that these changes have significantly altered boreal forest growth dynamics in northeastern North America (NA) and northern Europe (NE), two areas geographically adjacent to the North Atlantic Ocean. To test our hypothesis, we investigated tree growth responses to seasonal large-scale oceanic and atmospheric indices (the AMOC, North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Arctic Oscillation (AO)) and climate (temperature and precipitation) from 1950 onwards, both at the regional and local levels. We developed a network of 6876 black spruce (NA) and 14437 Norway spruce (NE) tree-ring width series, extracted from forest inventory databases. Analyses revealed post-1980 shifts from insignificant to significant tree growth responses to summer oceanic and atmospheric dynamics both in NA (negative responses to NAO and AO indices) and NE (positive response to NAO and AMOC indices). The strength and sign of these responses varied, however, through space with stronger responses in western and central boreal Quebec and in central and northern boreal Sweden, and across scales with stronger responses at the regional level than at the local level. Emerging post-1980 associations with North Atlantic Ocean dynamics synchronized with stronger tree growth responses to local seasonal climate, particularly to winter temperatures. Our results suggest that ongoing and future anomalies in oceanic and atmospheric dynamics may impact forest growth and carbon sequestration to a greater extent than previously thought. Cross-scale differences in responses to North Atlantic Ocean dynamics highlight complex interplays in the effects of local climate and ocean-atmosphere dynamics on tree growth processes and advocate for the use of different spatial scales in

  8. Prospective dynamic assessment of risk of sexual reoffending in individuals with an intellectual disability and a history of sexual offending behaviour.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lofthouse, Rachael E; Lindsay, William R; Totsika, Vasiliki; Hastings, Richard P; Boer, Douglas P; Haaven, James L

    2013-09-01

    The purpose of the present study was to add to the literature on the predictive accuracy of a dynamic intellectual disability specific risk assessment tool. A dynamic risk assessment for sexual reoffending (ARMIDILO-S), a static risk assessment for sexual offending (STATIC-99), and a static risk assessment for violence (Violence Risk Appraisal Guide [VRAG]) were completed for a sample of 64 adult males with an intellectual disability. The dynamic risk assessment for sexual offenders with an intellectual disability resulted in the best prediction of sexual reoffending (ARMIDILO-S area under the curve (AUC) = 0.92) this was better than an established sexual offending static risk assessment (STATIC-99 AUC = 0.75). A static tool for violent reoffending, did not perform as well in this group (VRAG AUC = 0.58). Results suggest that dynamic variables are useful in predicting sexual reoffending with individuals with an intellectual disability, confirming previous findings. The ARMIDILO-S is a promising dynamic risk assessment for individuals with an intellectual disability. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  9. Dynamic response of ultrathin highly dense ZIF-8 nanofilms

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cookney, J.; Ogieglo, Wojciech; Hrabanek, P.; Vankelecom, I.; Fila, V.; Benes, Nieck Edwin

    2014-01-01

    Ultrathin ZIF-8 nanofilms are prepared by facile step-by-step dip coating. A critical withdrawal speed allows for films with a very uniform minimum thickness. The high refractive index of the films denotes the absence of mesopores. The dynamic response of the films to CO2 exposure resembles

  10. Risk perception and credibility of risk communication

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sjoeberg, L

    1992-10-01

    Experts and the public frequently disagree when it comes to risk assessment. The reasons for such disagreement are discussed, and it is pointed out that disagreement among experts and lack of full understanding of real risks contributes to skepticism among the public. The notion that people are in general reacting in a highly emotional and non-rational, phobic, manner is rejected. The very conditions for risk assessment present to the public, and common-sense cognitive dynamics, are better explanations of risk perception, as are some social psychological concepts. If trust is to be established in a country where it is quite low some kind of politically regulated public influence on decision making and risk monitoring is probably needed, e.g. by means of a publicly elected and responsible ombudsman. 57 refs, 8 figs, 5 tabs.

  11. Risk perception and credibility of risk communication

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sjoeberg, L.

    1992-10-01

    Experts and the public frequently disagree when it comes to risk assessment. The reasons for such disagreement are discussed, and it is pointed out that disagreement among experts and lack of full understanding of real risks contributes to skepticism among the public. The notion that people are in general reacting in a highly emotional and non-rational, phobic, manner is rejected. The very conditions for risk assessment present to the public, and common-sense cognitive dynamics, are better explanations of risk perception, as are some social psychological concepts. If trust is to be established in a country where it is quite low some kind of politically regulated public influence on decision making and risk monitoring is probably needed, e.g. by means of a publicly elected and responsible ombudsman. 57 refs, 8 figs, 5 tabs

  12. Water security, risk, and economic growth: Insights from a dynamical systems model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dadson, Simon; Hall, Jim W.; Garrick, Dustin; Sadoff, Claudia; Grey, David; Whittington, Dale

    2017-08-01

    Investments in the physical infrastructure, human capital, and institutions needed for water resources management have been noteworthy in the development of most civilizations. These investments affect the economy in two distinct ways: (i) by improving the factor productivity of water in multiple economic sectors, especially those that are water intensive such as agriculture and energy and (ii) by reducing acute and chronic harmful effects of water-related hazards like floods, droughts, and water-related diseases. The need for capital investment to mitigate risks and promote economic growth is widely acknowledged, but prior conceptual work on the relationship between water-related investments and economic growth has focused on the productive and harmful roles of water in the economy independently. Here the two influences are combined using a simple, dynamical systems model of water-related investment, risk, and growth. In cases where initial water security is low, initial investment in water-related assets enables growth. Without such investment, losses due to water-related hazards exert a drag on economic growth and may create a poverty trap. The presence and location of the poverty trap is context-specific and depends on the exposure of productive water-related assets to water-related risk. Exogenous changes in water-related risk can potentially push an economy away from a growth path toward a poverty trap. Our investigation shows that an inverted-U-shaped investment relation between the level of investment in water security and the current level of water security leads to faster rates of growth than the alternatives that we consider here, and that this relation is responsible for the "S"-curve that is posited in the literature. These results illustrate the importance of accounting for environmental and health risks in economic models and offer insights for the design of robust policies for investment in water-related productive assets to manage risk, in the face

  13. Dynamic jump intensities and risk premia : Evidence from S&P500 returns and options

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Christoffersen, P.; Jacobs, K.; Ornthanalai, C.

    2012-01-01

    We build a new class of discrete-time models that are relatively easy to estimate using returns and/or options. The distribution of returns is driven by two factors: dynamic volatility and dynamic jump intensity. Each factor has its own risk premium. The models significantly outperform standard

  14. Nonlinear dynamic response of electro-thermo-mechanically loaded piezoelectric cylindrical shell reinforced with BNNTs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, J H; Yang, J; Kitipornchai, S

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents an investigation on the nonlinear dynamic response of piezoelectric cylindrical shells reinforced with boron nitride nanotubes (BNNTs) under a combined axisymmetric electro-thermo-mechanical loading. By employing the classical Donnell shell theory, the von Kármán–Donnell kinematic relationship, and a piezo-elastic constitutive law including thermal effects, the nonlinear governing equations of motion of the shell are derived through the Reissner variational principle. The finite difference method and a time-integration scheme are used to obtain the nonlinear dynamic response of the BNNT-reinforced piezoelectric shell. A parametric study is conducted, showing the effects of geometrically nonlinear deformation, applied voltage, temperature change, mechanical load, BNNT volume fraction and boundary conditions on the nonlinear dynamic response. (paper)

  15. Rib Geometry Explains Variation in Dynamic Structural Response: Potential Implications for Frontal Impact Fracture Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murach, Michelle M; Kang, Yun-Seok; Goldman, Samuel D; Schafman, Michelle A; Schlecht, Stephen H; Moorhouse, Kevin; Bolte, John H; Agnew, Amanda M

    2017-09-01

    The human thorax is commonly injured in motor vehicle crashes, and despite advancements in occupant safety rib fractures are highly prevalent. The objective of this study was to quantify the ability of gross and cross-sectional geometry, separately and in combination, to explain variation of human rib structural properties. One hundred and twenty-two whole mid-level ribs from 76 fresh post-mortem human subjects were tested in a dynamic frontal impact scenario. Structural properties (peak force and stiffness) were successfully predicted (p rib cross-sectional geometry obtained via direct histological imaging (total area, cortical area, and section modulus) and were improved further when utilizing a combination of cross-sectional and gross geometry (robusticity, whole bone strength index). Additionally, preliminary application of a novel, adaptive thresholding technique, allowed for total area and robusticity to be measured on a subsample of standard clinical CT scans with varied success. These results can be used to understand variation in individual rib response to frontal loading as well as identify important geometric parameters, which could ultimately improve injury criteria as well as the biofidelity of anthropomorphic test devices (ATDs) and finite element (FE) models of the human thorax.

  16. Toward responsible development and effective risk management of nano-enabled products in the U.S. construction industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    West, Gavin H.; Lippy, Bruce E.; Cooper, Michael R.; Marsick, Daniel; Burrelli, Leonard G.; Griffin, Kelsey N.; Segrave, Alan M.

    2016-01-01

    The global construction sector is experiencing major improvements to building materials used in large quantities through commercial applications of nanotechnology. Nano-enabled construction products hold great promise for energy efficiency and resource conservation, but risk assessments lag as new products emerge. This paper presents results from an inventory, survey, and exposure assessment conducted by the authors and explores these findings in the broader context of evolving research trends and responsible development of nanotechnology. An inventory of 458 reportedly nano-enabled construction products provided insight into product availability, potential exposures, and deficiencies in risk communication that are barriers to adoption of proactive safety measures. Seasoned construction trainers surveyed were largely unaware of the availability of nano-enabled construction products. Exposure assessment demonstrated the effectiveness of ventilation to reduce exposures during mechanical abrasion of photocatalytic tiles containing titanium dioxide (TiO 2 ). Dissociated particles of TiO 2 just above the nanoscale (138 nm) were detected in the debris collected during cutting of the tiles, but measurements were below recommended exposure limits for TiO 2 . Exposure assessments remain scarce, and toxicological understanding primarily pertains to unincorporated nanomaterials; less is known about the occupational risks of nano-enabled construction products across their life cycle. Further research is needed to characterize and quantify exposure to debris released from nanocomposite materials for realistic risk assessment, and to ascertain how nanocomposite matrices, fillers, and degradation forces interact to affect release dynamics. Improving risk communication strategies and implementing safe work practices will cultivate responsible development of nanotechnology in construction, as will multidisciplinary research efforts

  17. Toward responsible development and effective risk management of nano-enabled products in the U.S. construction industry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    West, Gavin H.; Lippy, Bruce E., E-mail: blippy@cpwr.com; Cooper, Michael R. [CPWR - The Center for Construction Research and Training (United States); Marsick, Daniel [Marsick Consulting, LLC (United States); Burrelli, Leonard G.; Griffin, Kelsey N. [Environmental Profiles, Inc. (United States); Segrave, Alan M. [Bureau Veritas North America, Inc. (United States)

    2016-02-15

    The global construction sector is experiencing major improvements to building materials used in large quantities through commercial applications of nanotechnology. Nano-enabled construction products hold great promise for energy efficiency and resource conservation, but risk assessments lag as new products emerge. This paper presents results from an inventory, survey, and exposure assessment conducted by the authors and explores these findings in the broader context of evolving research trends and responsible development of nanotechnology. An inventory of 458 reportedly nano-enabled construction products provided insight into product availability, potential exposures, and deficiencies in risk communication that are barriers to adoption of proactive safety measures. Seasoned construction trainers surveyed were largely unaware of the availability of nano-enabled construction products. Exposure assessment demonstrated the effectiveness of ventilation to reduce exposures during mechanical abrasion of photocatalytic tiles containing titanium dioxide (TiO{sub 2}). Dissociated particles of TiO{sub 2} just above the nanoscale (138 nm) were detected in the debris collected during cutting of the tiles, but measurements were below recommended exposure limits for TiO{sub 2}. Exposure assessments remain scarce, and toxicological understanding primarily pertains to unincorporated nanomaterials; less is known about the occupational risks of nano-enabled construction products across their life cycle. Further research is needed to characterize and quantify exposure to debris released from nanocomposite materials for realistic risk assessment, and to ascertain how nanocomposite matrices, fillers, and degradation forces interact to affect release dynamics. Improving risk communication strategies and implementing safe work practices will cultivate responsible development of nanotechnology in construction, as will multidisciplinary research efforts.

  18. Delayed system response times affect immediate physiology and the dynamics of subsequent button press behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohrs, Christin; Hrabal, David; Angenstein, Nicole; Brechmann, André

    2014-11-01

    System response time research is an important issue in human-computer interactions. Experience with technical devices and general rules of human-human interactions determine the user's expectation, and any delay in system response time may lead to immediate physiological, emotional, and behavioral consequences. We investigated such effects on a trial-by-trial basis during a human-computer interaction by measuring changes in skin conductance (SC), heart rate (HR), and the dynamics of button press responses. We found an increase in SC and a deceleration of HR for all three delayed system response times (0.5, 1, 2 s). Moreover, the data on button press dynamics was highly informative since subjects repeated a button press with more force in response to delayed system response times. Furthermore, the button press dynamics could distinguish between correct and incorrect decisions and may thus even be used to infer the uncertainty of a user's decision. Copyright © 2014 Society for Psychophysiological Research.

  19. Validation of Infinite Impulse Response Multilayer Perceptron for Modelling Nuclear Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Cadini

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Artificial neural networks are powerful algorithms for constructing nonlinear empirical models from operational data. Their use is becoming increasingly popular in the complex modeling tasks required by diagnostic, safety, and control applications in complex technologies such as those employed in the nuclear industry. In this paper, the nonlinear modeling capabilities of an infinite impulse response multilayer perceptron (IIR-MLP for nuclear dynamics are considered in comparison to static modeling by a finite impulse response multilayer perceptron (FIR-MLP and a conventional static MLP. The comparison is made with respect to the nonlinear dynamics of a nuclear reactor as investigated by IIR-MLP in a previous paper. The superior performance of the locally recurrent scheme is demonstrated.

  20. Predicting population level risk effects of predation from the responses of individuals

    OpenAIRE

    Macleod, Colin D.; Macleod, Ross; Learmonth, Jennifer A.; Cresswell, Will; Pierce, G.J.

    2014-01-01

    Fear of predation produces large effects on prey population dynamics through indirect risk effects that can cause even greater impacts than direct predation mortality. As yet, there is no general theoretical framework for predicting when and how these population risk effects will arise in specific prey populations, meaning there is often little consideration given to the key role predator risk effects can play in understanding conservation and wildlife management challenges. Here, we propose ...

  1. Effects of CFRP Strengthening on Dynamic and Fatigue Responses of Composite Bridge

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kittisak Kuntiyawichai

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the effect of CFRP strengthening on dynamic and fatigue responses of composite bridge using finite element program ABAQUS. Dynamic and fatigue responses of composite bridge due to truck load based on AASHTO standard are investigated. Two types of CFRP strengthening techniques, CFRP sheets and CFRP deck, are applied to both the damaged and undamaged bridges. For the case of damaged bridge, two through-thickness crack sizes, 3 mm and 6 mm in depth, are assumed at midspan of the steel girders. Furthermore, effects of the number of steel girders on the dynamic and fatigue responses are also considered. The results show that the maximum responses of composite bridges occur for dual lane cases. By using CFRP as a strengthening material, the maximum stress and deflection of the steel girders reduce and consequently increase the fatigue life of the girders. After introducing initial crack into the steel girders of the composite bridges, the fatigue life of the bridges is dramatically reduced. However, the overall performance of the damaged composite bridge can be improved by using CFRP, albeit with less effectiveness. Therefore, if cracks are found, steel welding must be performed before strengthening the composite bridge by CFRP.

  2. Dynamic properties of energy affordability measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heindl, Peter; Schuessler, Rudolf

    2015-01-01

    Measures of affordability and of fuel poverty are applied in practice to assess the affordability of energy services, for example, or of water or housing. The extensive body of literature on affordability measures has little overlap with the existing literature on poverty measurement. A comprehensive assessment of the response of affordability measures as a result of changes in the distribution of income or expenditure (the dynamic properties) is missing. This paper aims to fill this gap by providing a conceptual discussion on the ‘dynamics’ of both energy affordability measures and fuel poverty measures. Several types of measures are examined in a microsimulation framework. Our results indicate that some measures exhibit odd dynamic behavior. This includes measures used in practice, such as the low income/high cost measure and the double median of expenditure share indicator. Odd dynamic behavior causes the risk of drawing false policy recommendations from the measures. Thus, an appropriate response of affordability measures to changes in relevant variables is a prerequisite for defining meaningful measures that inform about affordability or deprivation in certain domains of consumption. - Highlights: • We investigate changes in fuel poverty measures as result from changes in income and expenditure. • More generally, we investigate dynamic behavior of affordability measures using microsimulation. • We propose axioms regarding dynamic behavior of affordability measures. • Some measures which are used in practice show unintuitive dynamic behavior. • Inappropriate dynamic behavior causes a risk of false policy implications.

  3. Dynamic Value at Risk: A Comparative Study Between Heteroscedastic Models and Monte Carlo Simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Lamartine Távora Junior

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this paper was to analyze the risk management of a portfolio composed by Petrobras PN, Telemar PN and Vale do Rio Doce PNA stocks. It was verified if the modeling of Value-at-Risk (VaR through the place Monte Carlo simulation with volatility of GARCH family is supported by hypothesis of efficient market. The results have shown that the statistic evaluation in inferior to dynamics, evidencing that the dynamic analysis supplies support to the hypothesis of efficient market of the Brazilian share holding market, in opposition of some empirical evidences. Also, it was verified that the GARCH models of volatility is enough to accommodate the variations of the shareholding Brazilian market, since the model is capable to accommodate the great dynamic of the Brazilian market.

  4. Dynamic Response of Three-Layered Annular Plate with Imperfections

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pawlus Dorota

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the imperfection sensitivity of annular plate with three-layered structure. The plate composed of thin elastic facings and a thicker elastic core is loaded in facing plane. The classical issue of a three-layered plate was solved for dynamic deflection problem using the approximation methods: orthogonalization and finite difference. The solution includes the axisymmetric and asymmetric plate modes of the dynamic stability loss. The evaluation of the rate of plate sensitivity to imperfection of plate preliminary geometry has been enriched by the analysis of plate models built of finite elements. The ABAQUS program has been used. The numerous calculation results in the form of deflection characteristics, buckling modes, values of critical parameters create the view of response of dynamic plate structure with different rate of imperfection and linear in time loading growth, too.

  5. Dynamical response of the nuclear 'pasta' in neutron star crusts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Horowitz, C.J.; Perez-Garcia, M.A.; Berry, D.K.; Piekarewicz, J.

    2005-01-01

    The nuclear pasta - a novel state of matter having nucleons arranged in a variety of complex shapes - is expected to be found in the crust of neutron stars and in core-collapse supernovae at subnuclear densities of about 10 14 g/cm 3 . Owing to frustration, a phenomenon that emerges from the competition between short-range nuclear attraction and long-range Coulomb repulsion, the nuclear pasta displays a preponderance of unique low-energy excitations. These excitations could have a strong impact on many transport properties, such as neutrino propagation through stellar environments. The excitation spectrum of the nuclear pasta is computed via a molecular-dynamics simulation involving up to 100,000 nucleons. The dynamic response of the pasta displays a classical plasma oscillation in the 1- to 2-MeV region. In addition, substantial strength is found at low energies. Yet this low-energy strength is missing from a simple ion model containing a single-representative heavy nucleus. The low-energy strength observed in the dynamic response of the pasta is likely to be a density wave involving the internal degrees of freedom of the clusters

  6. A Dynamic Programming Approach for Pricing Weather Derivatives under Issuer Default Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wolfgang Karl Härdle

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Weather derivatives are contingent claims with payoff based on a pre-specified weather index. Firms exposed to weather risk can transfer it to financial markets via weather derivatives. We develop a utility-based model for pricing baskets of weather derivatives under default risk on the issuer side in over-the-counter markets. In our model, agents maximise the expected utility of their terminal wealth, while they dynamically rebalance their weather portfolios over a finite investment horizon. Using dynamic programming approach, we obtain semi-closed forms for the equilibrium prices of weather derivatives and for the optimal strategies of the agents. We give an example on how to price rainfall derivatives on selected stations in China in the universe of a financial investor and a weather exposed crop insurer.

  7. Experimental comparison of the dynamic evaporator response using homogeneous and slip flow modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kærn, Martin Ryhl; Elmegaard, Brian; Larsen, Lars Finn Sloth

    2011-01-01

    The dynamic response from an evaporator is important for control of refrigeration and air-conditioning systems. Essentially, the prediction of refrigerant charge inside the evaporator is crucial for the dynamic behavior. The prediction of refrigerant charge follows from suitable void fraction...

  8. Belgium: risk adjustment and financial responsibility in a centralised system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schokkaert, Erik; Van de Voorde, Carine

    2003-07-01

    Since 1995 Belgian sickness funds are partially financed through a risk adjustment system and are held partially financially responsible for the difference between their actual and their risk-adjusted expenditures. However, they did not get the necessary instruments for exerting a real influence on expenditures and the health insurance market has not been opened for new entrants. At the same time the sickness funds have powerful tools for risk selection, because they also dominate the market for supplementary health insurance. The present risk-adjustment system is based on the results of a regression analysis with aggregate data. The main proclaimed purpose of this system is to guarantee a fair treatment to all the sickness funds. Until now the danger of risk selection has not been taken seriously. Consumer mobility has remained rather low. However, since the degree of financial responsibility is programmed to increase in the near future, the potential profits from cream skimming will increase.

  9. Performing dynamic time history analyses by extension of the response spectrum method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hulbert, G.M.

    1983-01-01

    A method is presented to calculate the dynamic time history response of finite-element models using results from response spectrum analyses. The proposed modified time history method does not represent a new mathamatical approach to dynamic analysis but suggests a more efficient ordering of the analytical equations and procedures. The modified time history method is considerably faster and less expensive to use than normal time hisory methods. This paper presents the theory and implementation of the modified time history approach along with comparisons of the modified and normal time history methods for a prototypic seismic piping design problem

  10. Integrated project risk management of nuclear power projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Xiaohui; Xu Yuanhui

    2001-01-01

    The concept and the features of risks in nuclear power projects are introduced, and in terms of nuclear power projects' own features, the Nuclear Power Project Integrated Risk Management Model is presented. The identification, estimation, evaluation, response plan development, control of risks and the theoretical basis of risk management are discussed. The model has feedback and control functions in order to control and manage the risks dynamically

  11. Long-term composition dynamics of PAH-containing NAPLs and implications for risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peters, C.A.; Knightes, C.D.; Brown, D.G.

    1999-01-01

    Subsurface contaminants such as coal tar, creosote, diesel fuel, and other petroleum-derived materials typically exist as very complex chemical mixtures. Risk assessment is useful for site management if a single metric can represent the composition-dependent risk profile of the mixture. This paper examines the factors governing human health risk assessment for multicomponent nonaqueous phase liquids (NAPLs) containing polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). A model is presented describing the interdependence of the dissolution rates of individual compounds and the shifts in the NAPL composition that occur due to the large differences in aqueous solubilities. The model also accounts for solidification of the less soluble NAPL constituents. Thirty-year numerical simulations describe composition dynamics for natural environmental processes as well as three remediation processes: pump-and-treat, bioremediation, and solvent extraction. Carcinogenic risk due to ingestion of contaminated groundwater at the source is estimated, and its dependence on contaminant removal and NAPL composition shifts is described. When composition dynamics are slow, a compound like naphthalene has great potential to contribute to risk because it may persist in groundwater. When there is significant depletion of the lower molecular weight compounds, the risk is dominated by contributions from compounds such as benzo[a]pyrene. Remediation technologies have the greatest potential for risk reduction if they are effective in removing the more carcinogenic, high molecular weight compounds. Because PAHs can contribute to risk for different reasons and because of the interdependence of their behaviors, compositional approaches lead to better risk predictions for PAHs than simple lumped metrics such as total petroleum hydrocarbon (TPH)

  12. Perceptions of Active Versus Passive Risks, and the Effect of Personal Responsibility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keinan, Ruty; Bereby-Meyer, Yoella

    2017-07-01

    Not getting vaccinated or not backing up computer files are examples of passive risk taking: risk brought on or magnified by inaction. We suggest the difficulty in paying attention to absences, together with the reduced agency and responsibility that is associated with passive choices, leads to the perception of passive risks as being less risky than equivalent active risks. Using scenarios in which risk was taken either actively or passively, we demonstrate that passive risks are judged as less risky than equivalent active risks. We find the perception of personal responsibility mediates the differences between the perception of passive and active risks. The current research offers an additional explanation for omission or default biases: The passive nature of these choices causes them to appear less risky than they really are.

  13. Dynamic Response of Dam-Reservoir Systems: Review and a Semi-Analytical Proposal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paulo Marcelo Vieira Ribeiro

    Full Text Available Abstract This paper presents a review of current techniques employed for dynamic analysis of concrete gravity dams under seismic action. Traditional procedures applied in design bureaus, such as the Pseudo-Static method, often neglect structural dynamic properties, as well as ground amplification effects. A practical alternative arises with the Pseudo-Dynamic method, which considers a simplified spectrum response in the fundamental mode. The authors propose a self-contained development and detailed examples of this latter method, including a comparison with finite element models using transient response of fluid-structure systems. It is verified that application of the traditional procedure should be done carefully and limited to extremely rigid dams. On the other hand, the proposed development is straightforward and in agreement with finite element results for general cases where dam flexibility plays an important role.

  14. Risk-assessment and risk-taking behavior predict potassium- and amphetamine-induced dopamine response in the dorsal striatum of rats

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sara ePalm

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Certain personality types and behavioral traits display high correlations to drug use and an increased level of dopamine in the reward system is a common denominator of all drugs of abuse. Dopamine response to drugs has been suggested to correlate with some of these personality types and to be a key factor influencing the predisposition to addiction. This study investigated if behavioral traits can be related to potassium- and amphetamine-induced dopamine response in the dorsal striatum, an area hypothesized to be involved in the shift from drug use to addiction. The open field and multivariate concentric square field™ tests were used to assess individual behavior in male Wistar rats. Chronoamperometric recordings were then made to study the potassium- and amphetamine-induced dopamine response in vivo. A classification based on risk-taking behavior in the open field was used for further comparisons. Risk-taking behavior was correlated between the behavioral tests and high risk takers displayed a more pronounced response to the dopamine uptake blocking effects of amphetamine. Behavioral parameters from both tests could also predict potassium- and amphetamine-induced dopamine responses showing a correlation between neurochemistry and behavior in risk-assessment and risk-taking parameters. In conclusion, the high risk-taking rats showed a more pronounced reduction of dopamine uptake in the dorsal striatum after amphetamine indicating that this area may contribute to the sensitivity of these animals to psychostimulants and proneness to addiction. Further, inherent dopamine activity was related to risk-assessment behavior, which may be of importance for decision-making and inhibitory control, key components in addiction.

  15. Volcanic risk: the responsibility of science in communication

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piccione, Caterina

    2013-04-01

    The knowledge of the places where we live comes both from the experience handed down from one generation to the other and from scientific knowledge. In some cases, natural risks are "invisible", such as earthquakes, in some other cases, natural risks are seemingly "invisible", such as a wall in danger of collapse or a valley in a flood zone. And besides all this, there is volcanic risk, where the power of the forces of nature appears in all its beauty and majesty. The possibility to see volcanoes, to perceive their changes, to observe them closely and the need to live with them, makes it very important for the population living in these areas to have an adequate knowledge of the risk, a knowledge that should be based on scientific research. In Italy the experience of the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia in the Vesuvio area, in the Aeolian Islands and around Etna shows how vital it is to make people aware of volcanic risk. Thanks to the support of the scientific community, the population can develop the best possible coexistence with volcanoes and with the risk they represent. These are extreme situations, but they are the starting point for educational and informative activities continuing to evolve and upgrade in parallel to the availability of new technologies and media and the progress of research that INGV has been conducting for years through specific projects. The scientific community and individual researchers have the ethical duty to share with the community the knowledge on risk, a responsibility that becomes especially important in those areas affected by volcanic risk. It is from this educational action that depends on the awareness of the populations with regard to the risk they are exposed to, that results in a responsible behavior in case of emergency, and that becomes the main variable for the safety of communities coexisting with active volcanoes.

  16. Predicting Dynamic Response of Structures under Earthquake Loads Using Logical Analysis of Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ayman Abd-Elhamed

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, logical analysis of data (LAD is used to predict the seismic response of building structures employing the captured dynamic responses. In order to prepare the data, computational simulations using a single degree of freedom (SDOF building model under different ground motion records are carried out. The selected excitation records are real and of different peak ground accelerations (PGA. The sensitivity of the seismic response in terms of displacements of floors to the variation in earthquake characteristics, such as soil class, characteristic period, and time step of records, peak ground displacement, and peak ground velocity, have also been considered. The dynamic equation of motion describing the building model and the applied earthquake load are presented and solved incrementally using the Runge-Kutta method. LAD then finds the characteristic patterns which lead to forecast the seismic response of building structures. The accuracy of LAD is compared to that of an artificial neural network (ANN, since the latter is the most known machine learning technique. Based on the conducted study, the proposed LAD model has been proven to be an efficient technique to learn, simulate, and blindly predict the dynamic response behaviour of building structures subjected to earthquake loads.

  17. Dynamic compressive response of wrought and additive manufactured 304L stainless steels

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nishida Erik

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Additive manufacturing (AM technology has been developed to fabricate metal components that include complex prototype fabrication, small lot production, precision repair or feature addition, and tooling. However, the mechanical response of the AM materials is a concern to meet requirements for specific applications. Differences between AM materials as compared to wrought materials might be expected, due to possible differences in porosity (voids, grain size, and residual stress levels. When the AM materials are designed for impact applications, the dynamic mechanical properties in both compression and tension need to be fully characterized and understood for reliable designs. In this study, a 304L stainless steel was manufactured with AM technology. For comparison purposes, both the AM and wrought 304L stainless steels were dynamically characterized in compression Kolsky bar techniques. They dynamic compressive stress-strain curves were obtained and the strain rate effects were determined for both the AM and wrought 304L stainless steels. A comprehensive comparison of dynamic compressive response between the AM and wrought 304L stainless steels was performed. SAND2015-0993 C.

  18. Accelerating solving the dynamic multi-objective nework design problem using response surface methods

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wismans, Luc Johannes Josephus; van Berkum, Eric C.; Bliemer, Michiel C.J.; Viti, F.; Immers, B.; Tampere, C.

    2011-01-01

    Multi objective optimization of externalities of traffic solving a network design problem in which Dynamic Traffic Management measures are used, is time consuming while heuristics are needed and solving the lower level requires solving the dynamic user equilibrium problem. Use of response surface

  19. Project management with dynamic scheduling baseline scheduling, risk analysis and project control

    CERN Document Server

    Vanhoucke, Mario

    2013-01-01

    The topic of this book is known as dynamic scheduling, and is used to refer to three dimensions of project management and scheduling: the construction of a baseline schedule and the analysis of a project schedule's risk as preparation of the project control phase during project progress. This dynamic scheduling point of view implicitly assumes that the usability of a project's baseline schedule is rather limited and only acts as a point of reference in the project life cycle.

  20. Biology as population dynamics: heuristics for transmission risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keebler, Daniel; Walwyn, David; Welte, Alex

    2013-02-01

    Population-type models, accounting for phenomena such as population lifetimes, mixing patterns, recruitment patterns, genetic evolution and environmental conditions, can be usefully applied to the biology of HIV infection and viral replication. A simple dynamic model can explore the effect of a vaccine-like stimulus on the mortality and infectiousness, which formally looks like fertility, of invading virions; the mortality of freshly infected cells; and the availability of target cells, all of which impact on the probability of infection. Variations on this model could capture the importance of the timing and duration of different key events in viral transmission, and hence be applied to questions of mucosal immunology. The dynamical insights and assumptions of such models are compatible with the continuum of between- and within-individual risks in sexual violence and may be helpful in making sense of the sparse data available on the association between HIV transmission and sexual violence. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

  1. A method to adjust radiation dose-response relationships for clinical risk factors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Appelt, Ane Lindegaard; Vogelius, Ivan R

    2012-01-01

    Several clinical risk factors for radiation induced toxicity have been identified in the literature. Here, we present a method to quantify the effect of clinical risk factors on radiation dose-response curves and apply the method to adjust the dose-response for radiation pneumonitis for patients...

  2. Dynamic Frequency Response of Wind Power Plants

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Altin, Müfit

    according to their grid codes. In these scenarios particularly with high wind power penetration cases, conventional power plants (CPPs) such as old thermal power plants are planned to be replaced with wind power plants (WPPs). Consequently, the power system stability will be affected and the control...... to maintain sustainable and reliable operation of the power system for these targets, transmission system operators (TSOs) have revised the grid code requirements. Also, the TSOs are planning the future development of the power system with various wind penetration scenarios to integrate more wind power...... capability of WPPs would be investigated. The objective of this project is to analyze and identify the power system requirements for the synchronizing power support and inertial response control of WPPs in high wind power penetration scenarios. The dynamic frequency response of WPPs is realized...

  3. Systemic risk in dynamical networks with stochastic failure criterion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Podobnik, B.; Horvatic, D.; Bertella, M. A.; Feng, L.; Huang, X.; Li, B.

    2014-06-01

    Complex non-linear interactions between banks and assets we model by two time-dependent Erdős-Renyi network models where each node, representing a bank, can invest either to a single asset (model I) or multiple assets (model II). We use a dynamical network approach to evaluate the collective financial failure —systemic risk— quantified by the fraction of active nodes. The systemic risk can be calculated over any future time period, divided into sub-periods, where within each sub-period banks may contiguously fail due to links to either i) assets or ii) other banks, controlled by two parameters, probability of internal failure p and threshold Th (“solvency” parameter). The systemic risk decreases with the average network degree faster when all assets are equally distributed across banks than if assets are randomly distributed. The more inactive banks each bank can sustain (smaller Th), the smaller the systemic risk —for some Th values in I we report a discontinuity in systemic risk. When contiguous spreading becomes stochastic ii) controlled by probability p2 —a condition for the bank to be solvent (active) is stochastic— the systemic risk decreases with decreasing p2. We analyse the asset allocation for the U.S. banks.

  4. Dynamic Responses of Continuous Girder Bridges with Uniform Cross-Section under Moving Vehicular Loads

    OpenAIRE

    Gao, Qingfei; Wang, Zonglin; Jia, Hongyu; Liu, Chenguang; Li, Jun; Guo, Binqiang; Zhong, Junfei

    2015-01-01

    To address the drawback of traditional method of investigating dynamic responses of the continuous girder bridge with uniform cross-section under moving vehicular loads, the orthogonal experimental design method is proposed in this paper. Firstly, some empirical formulas of natural frequencies are obtained by theoretical derivation and numerical simulation. The effects of different parameters on dynamic responses of the vehicle-bridge coupled vibration system are discussed using our own progr...

  5. Dynamic response of ultrathin highly dense ZIF-8 nanofilms

    OpenAIRE

    Cookney, J.; Ogieglo, Wojciech; Hrabanek, P.; Vankelecom, I.; Fila, V.; Benes, Nieck Edwin

    2014-01-01

    Ultrathin ZIF-8 nanofilms are prepared by facile step-by-step dip coating. A critical withdrawal speed allows for films with a very uniform minimum thickness. The high refractive index of the films denotes the absence of mesopores. The dynamic response of the films to CO2 exposure resembles behaviour observed for nonequilibrium organic polymers.

  6. Influence of foundation mass and surface roughness on dynamic response of beam on dynamic foundation subjected to the moving load

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tran Quoc, Tinh; Khong Trong, Toan; Luong Van, Hai

    2018-04-01

    In this paper, Improved Moving Element Method (IMEM) is used to analyze the dynamic response of Euler-Bernoulli beam structures on the dynamic foundation model subjected to the moving load. The effects of characteristic foundation model parameters such as Winkler stiffness, shear layer based on the Pasternak model, viscoelastic dashpot and characteristic parameter of mass on foundation. Beams are modeled by moving elements while the load is fixed. Based on the principle of the publicly virtual balancing and the theory of moving element method, the motion differential equation of the system is established and solved by means of the numerical integration based on the Newmark algorithm. The influence of mass on foundation and the roughness of the beam surface on the dynamic response of beam are examined in details.

  7. The Response of Simple Polymer Structures Under Dynamic Loading

    Science.gov (United States)

    Proud, William; Ellison, Kay; Yapp, Su; Cole, Cloe; Galimberti, Stefano; Institute of Shock Physics Team

    2017-06-01

    The dynamic response of polymeric materials has been widely studied with the effects of degree of crystallinity, strain rate, temperature and sample size being commonly reported. This study uses a simple PMMA structure, a right cylindrical sample, with structural features such as holes. The features are added an varied in a systematic fashion. Samples were dynamically loaded using a Split Hopkinson Pressure Bar up to failure. The resulting stress-strain curves are presented showing the change in sample response. The strain to failure is shown to increase initially with the presence of holes, while failure stress is relatively unaffected. The fracture patterns seen in the failed samples change, with tensile cracks, Hertzian cones, shear effects being dominant for different holes sizes and geometries. The sample were prepared by laser cutting and checked for residual stress before experiment. The data is used to validate predictive model predictions where material, structure and damage are included.. The Institute of Shock Physics acknowledges the support of Imperial College London and the Atomic Weapons Establishment.

  8. On the Boundary between Nonlinear Jump Phenomenon and Linear Response of Hypoid Gear Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jun Wang

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available A nonlinear time-varying (NLTV dynamic model of a hypoid gear pair system with time-dependent mesh point, line-of-action vector, mesh stiffness, mesh damping, and backlash nonlinearity is formulated to analyze the transitional phase between nonlinear jump phenomenon and linear response. It is found that the classical jump discontinuity will occur if the dynamic mesh force exceeds the mean value of tooth mesh force. On the other hand, the propensity for the gear response to jump disappears when the dynamic mesh force is lower than the mean mesh force. Furthermore, the dynamic analysis is able to distinguish the specific tooth impact types from analyzing the behaviors of the dynamic mesh force. The proposed theory is general and also applicable to high-speed spur, helical and spiral bevel gears even though those types of gears are not the primary focus of this paper.

  9. Dynamic response of high speed centrifuge for reprocessing plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rajput, Gaurav; Satish Kumar, V.; Selvaraj, T.; Ananda Rao, S.M.; Ravisankar, A.

    2012-01-01

    The standard for balancing the rotating bowl describes only the details about the selection of balance quality grade and the permissible residual unbalance for different operating speeds. This paper presents the effects of unbalance on the rotating bowl of high speed centrifuge used in reprocessing of spent nuclear fuel. In this study, the residual unbalance is evaluated for different recommended balancing grades in accordance with the ISO 1940. This unbalance mass generates dynamic force which acts on the rotor. The dynamic response of the rotor like displacements and stresses under this dynamic force are studied by numerical simulation. Finally, the effect of residual unbalance on the rotating bowl performance for different balancing grades is discussed. The experimental measurements are also carried out for the case of G 1.0 grade balanced rotating bowl to validate the resonance frequency as well as vibration amplitudes. (author)

  10. Chemotactic response and adaptation dynamics in Escherichia coli.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diana Clausznitzer

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Adaptation of the chemotaxis sensory pathway of the bacterium Escherichia coli is integral for detecting chemicals over a wide range of background concentrations, ultimately allowing cells to swim towards sources of attractant and away from repellents. Its biochemical mechanism based on methylation and demethylation of chemoreceptors has long been known. Despite the importance of adaptation for cell memory and behavior, the dynamics of adaptation are difficult to reconcile with current models of precise adaptation. Here, we follow time courses of signaling in response to concentration step changes of attractant using in vivo fluorescence resonance energy transfer measurements. Specifically, we use a condensed representation of adaptation time courses for efficient evaluation of different adaptation models. To quantitatively explain the data, we finally develop a dynamic model for signaling and adaptation based on the attractant flow in the experiment, signaling by cooperative receptor complexes, and multiple layers of feedback regulation for adaptation. We experimentally confirm the predicted effects of changing the enzyme-expression level and bypassing the negative feedback for demethylation. Our data analysis suggests significant imprecision in adaptation for large additions. Furthermore, our model predicts highly regulated, ultrafast adaptation in response to removal of attractant, which may be useful for fast reorientation of the cell and noise reduction in adaptation.

  11. Dynamic response of ultrathin highly dense ZIF-8 nanofilms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cookney, Joanna; Ogieglo, Wojciech; Hrabanek, Pavel; Vankelecom, Ivo; Fila, Vlastimil; Benes, Nieck E

    2014-10-11

    Ultrathin ZIF-8 nanofilms are prepared by facile step-by-step dip coating. A critical withdrawal speed allows for films with a very uniform minimum thickness. The high refractive index of the films denotes the absence of mesopores. The dynamic response of the films to CO2 exposure resembles behaviour observed for non-equilibrium organic polymers.

  12. Dynamic Response of Functionally Graded Carbon Nanotube Reinforced Sandwich Plate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehar, Kulmani; Panda, Subrata Kumar

    2018-03-01

    In this article, the dynamic response of the carbon nanotube-reinforced functionally graded sandwich composite plate has been studied numerically with the help of finite element method. The face sheets of the sandwich composite plate are made of carbon nanotube- reinforced composite for two different grading patterns whereas the core phase is taken as isotropic material. The final properties of the structure are calculated using the rule of mixture. The geometrical model of the sandwich plate is developed and discretized suitably with the help of available shell element in ANSYS library. Subsequently, the corresponding numerical dynamic responses computed via batch input technique (parametric design language code in ANSYS) of ANSYS including Newmark’s integration scheme. The stability of the sandwich structural numerical model is established through the proper convergence study. Further, the reliability of the sandwich model is checked by comparison study between present and available results from references. As a final point, some numerical problems have been solved to examine the effect of different design constraints (carbon nanotube distribution pattern, core to face thickness ratio, volume fractions of the nanotube, length to thickness ratio, aspect ratio and constraints at edges) on the time-responses of sandwich plate.

  13. A systemic approach for managing extreme risk events-dynamic financial analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ph.D.Student Rodica Ianole

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Following the Black Swan logic, it often happens that what we do not know becomes more relevant that what we (believe to know. The management of extreme risks falls under this paradigm in the sense that it cannot be limited to a static approach based only on objective and easily quantifiable variables. Making appeal to the operational tools developed primarily for the insurance industry, the present paper aims to investigate how dynamic financial analysis (DFA can be used within the framework of extreme risk events.

  14. Familial Risk for Insomnia Is Associated With Abnormal Cortisol Response to Stress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drake, Christopher L; Cheng, Philip; Almeida, David M; Roth, Thomas

    2017-10-01

    Abnormalities in the stress system have been implicated in insomnia. However, studies examining physiological stress regulation in insomnia have not consistently detected differences in the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA)-axis response to stress. One explanation may be that deficits in the stress system are associated specifically with a biological vulnerability to insomnia rather than the phenotypic expression of insomnia. To examine stress response as a function of vulnerability to insomnia, this study tested response to the Trier Social Stress Test in a sample of healthy sleepers with varying familial risks for insomnia. Thirty-five healthy individuals with and without familial risk for insomnia were recruited to complete a laboratory stressor. Participants with one or both biological parents with insomnia were categorized as positive for familial risk, whereas those without biological parents with insomnia were categorized as negative for familial risk. Participants completed the Trier Social Stress Test in the laboratory, and psychological and physiological (autonomic and HPA-axis) responses were compared. Despite self-reported increases in anxiety, those positive for familial risk exhibited a blunted cortisol response relative to those without familial risk for insomnia. Individuals with blunted cortisol also reported heightened reactivity to personal life stressors, including increased sleep disturbances, elevated cognitive intrusions, and more behavioral avoidance. Findings from this study provide initial evidence that abnormal stress regulation may be a biological predisposing factor conferred via familial risk for insomnia. This deficit may also predict negative consequences over time, including insomnia and the associated psychiatric comorbidities. © Sleep Research Society 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Sleep Research Society. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail journals.permissions@oup.com.

  15. Dynamic Response of AP1000 Nuclear Island Due to Safe Shutdown Earthquake Loading

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gan Buntara S.

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available AP1000 is a standard nuclear power plant developed by Westinghouse and its partners by using an advanced passive safety feature. Among the five principle building structures, namely the nuclear island, turbine building, annex building, diesel generator building and radwaste building, the safety of the nuclear island building is the most concerned. This paper investigates the dynamic response of the nuclear island building of the AP1000 plant subjected to safe shutdown earthquake loadings. A finite element model for the building, which is assumed to be built in a hard-rock base, is developed and its dynamic response is computed with the aid of the commercial finite element package ANSYS. The dynamic characteristics, including the natural frequencies, the vibration modes, and the time histories for displacements, velocities, and accelerations of the building are obtained for two typical safe shutdown earthquakes, El Centro and Kobe earthquakes. The dynamic behavior of the building due to the earthquakes and its safety is examined and highlighted.

  16. Dynamical modeling approach to risk assessment for radiogenic leukemia among astronauts engaged in interplanetary space missions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smirnova, Olga A; Cucinotta, Francis A

    2018-02-01

    A recently developed biologically motivated dynamical model of the assessment of the excess relative risk (ERR) for radiogenic leukemia among acutely/continuously irradiated humans (Smirnova, 2015, 2017) is applied to estimate the ERR for radiogenic leukemia among astronauts engaged in long-term interplanetary space missions. Numerous scenarios of space radiation exposure during space missions are used in the modeling studies. The dependence of the ERR for leukemia among astronauts on several mission parameters including the dose equivalent rates of galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and large solar particle events (SPEs), the number of large SPEs, the time interval between SPEs, mission duration, the degree of astronaut's additional shielding during SPEs, the degree of their additional 12-hour's daily shielding, as well as the total mission dose equivalent, is examined. The results of the estimation of ERR for radiogenic leukemia among astronauts, which are obtained in the framework of the developed dynamical model for various scenarios of space radiation exposure, are compared with the corresponding results, computed by the commonly used linear model. It is revealed that the developed dynamical model along with the linear model can be applied to estimate ERR for radiogenic leukemia among astronauts engaged in long-term interplanetary space missions in the range of applicability of the latter. In turn, the developed dynamical model is capable of predicting the ERR for leukemia among astronauts for the irradiation regimes beyond the applicability range of the linear model in emergency cases. As a supplement to the estimations of cancer incidence and death (REIC and REID) (Cucinotta et al., 2013, 2017), the developed dynamical model for the assessment of the ERR for leukemia can be employed on the pre-mission design phase for, e.g., the optimization of the regimes of astronaut's additional shielding in the course of interplanetary space missions. The developed model can

  17. Modeling of Electrical Cable Failure in a Dynamic Assessment of Fire Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bucknor, Matthew D.

    Fires at a nuclear power plant are a safety concern because of their potential to defeat the redundant safety features that provide a high level of assurance of the ability to safely shutdown the plant. One of the added complexities of providing protection against fires is the need to determine the likelihood of electrical cable failure which can lead to the loss of the ability to control or spurious actuation of equipment that is required for safe shutdown. A number of plants are now transitioning from their deterministic fire protection programs to a risk-informed, performance based fire protection program according to the requirements of National Fire Protection Association (NFPA) 805. Within a risk-informed framework, credit can be taken for the analysis of fire progression within a fire zone that was not permissible within the deterministic framework of a 10 CFR 50.48 Appendix R safe shutdown analysis. To perform the analyses required for the transition, plants need to be able to demonstrate with some level of assurance that cables related to safe shutdown equipment will not be compromised during postulated fire scenarios. This research contains the development of new cable failure models that have the potential to more accurately predict electrical cable failure in common cable bundle configurations. Methods to determine the thermal properties of the new models from empirical data are presented along with comparisons between the new models and existing techniques used in the nuclear industry today. A Dynamic Event Tree (DET) methodology is also presented which allows for the proper treatment of uncertainties associated with fire brigade intervention and its effects on cable failure analysis. Finally a shielding analysis is performed to determine the effects on the temperature response of a cable bundle that is shielded from a fire source by an intervening object such as another cable tray. The results from the analyses demonstrate that models of similar

  18. Automated Dynamic Demand Response Implementation on a Micro-grid

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kuppannagari, Sanmukh R.; Kannan, Rajgopal; Chelmis, Charalampos; Prasanna, Viktor K.

    2016-11-16

    In this paper, we describe a system for real-time automated Dynamic and Sustainable Demand Response with sparse data consumption prediction implemented on the University of Southern California campus microgrid. Supply side approaches to resolving energy supply-load imbalance do not work at high levels of renewable energy penetration. Dynamic Demand Response (D2R) is a widely used demand-side technique to dynamically adjust electricity consumption during peak load periods. Our D2R system consists of accurate machine learning based energy consumption forecasting models that work with sparse data coupled with fast and sustainable load curtailment optimization algorithms that provide the ability to dynamically adapt to changing supply-load imbalances in near real-time. Our Sustainable DR (SDR) algorithms attempt to distribute customer curtailment evenly across sub-intervals during a DR event and avoid expensive demand peaks during a few sub-intervals. It also ensures that each customer is penalized fairly in order to achieve the targeted curtailment. We develop near linear-time constant-factor approximation algorithms along with Polynomial Time Approximation Schemes (PTAS) for SDR curtailment that minimizes the curtailment error defined as the difference between the target and achieved curtailment values. Our SDR curtailment problem is formulated as an Integer Linear Program that optimally matches customers to curtailment strategies during a DR event while also explicitly accounting for customer strategy switching overhead as a constraint. We demonstrate the results of our D2R system using real data from experiments performed on the USC smartgrid and show that 1) our prediction algorithms can very accurately predict energy consumption even with noisy or missing data and 2) our curtailment algorithms deliver DR with extremely low curtailment errors in the 0.01-0.05 kWh range.

  19. Dynamic response of a riser under excitation of internal waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lou, Min; Yu, Chenglong; Chen, Peng

    2015-12-01

    In this paper, the dynamic response of a marine riser under excitation of internal waves is studied. With the linear approximation, the governing equation of internal waves is given. Based on the rigid-lid boundary condition assumption, the equation is solved by Thompson-Haskell method. Thus the velocity field of internal waves is obtained by the continuity equation. Combined with the modified Morison formula, using finite element method, the motion equation of riser is solved in time domain with Newmark-β method. The computation programs are compiled to solve the differential equations in time domain. Then we get the numerical results, including riser displacement and transfiguration. It is observed that the internal wave will result in circular shear flow, and the first two modes have a dominant effect on dynamic response of the marine riser. In the high mode, the response diminishes rapidly. In different modes of internal waves, the deformation of riser has different shapes, and the location of maximum displacement shifts. Studies on wave parameters indicate that the wave amplitude plays a considerable role in response displacement of riser, while the wave frequency contributes little. Nevertheless, the internal waves of high wave frequency will lead to a high-frequency oscillation of riser; it possibly gives rise to fatigue crack extension and partial fatigue failure.

  20. Ethical Responsibility of Governance for Integrating Disaster Risk Reduction with Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parkash Gupta, Surya

    2015-04-01

    The development in the public as well as the private sectors is controlled and regulated, directly or indirectly by the governments at federal, provincial and local levels. If this development goes haphazard and unplanned, without due considerations to environmental constraints and potential hazards; it is likely to cause disasters or may get affected by disasters. Therefore, it becomes an ethical responsibility of the people involved in governance sector to integrate disaster risk reduction with development in their administrative territories through enforcement of appropriate policies, guidelines and regulatory mechanisms. Such mechanisms should address the social, scientific, economic, environmental, and legal requirements that play significant role in planning, implementation of developmental activities as well as disaster management. The paper focuses on defining the ethical responsibilities for the governance sector for integrating disaster risk reduction with development. It highlights the ethical issues with examples from two case studies, one from the Uttarakhand state and the other Odhisa state in India. The case studies illustrates how does it make a difference in disaster risk reduction if the governments own or do not own ethical responsibilities. The paper considers two major disaster events, flash floods in Uttarakhand state and Cyclone Phailin in Odhisa state, that happened during the year 2013. The study points out that it makes a great difference in terms of consequences and response to disasters when ethical responsibilities are owned by the governance sector. The papers attempts to define these ethical responsibilities for integrating disaster risk reduction with development so that the governments can be held accountable for their acts or non-actions.

  1. Transient Response Dynamic Module Modifications to Include Static and Kinetic Friction Effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Misel, J. E.; Nenno, S. B.; Takahashi, D.

    1984-01-01

    A methodology that supports forced transient response dynamic solutions when both static and kinetic friction effects are included in a structural system model is described. Modifications that support this type of nonlinear transient response solution are summarized for the transient response dynamics (TRD) NASTRAN module. An overview of specific modifications for the NASTRAN processing subroutines, INITL, TRD1C, and TRD1D, are described with further details regarding inspection of nonlinear input definitions to define the type of nonlinear solution required, along with additional initialization requirements and specific calculation subroutines to successfully solve the transient response problem. The extension of the basic NASTRAN nonlinear methodology is presented through several stages of development to the point where constraint equations and residual flexibility effects are introduced into the finite difference Newmark-Beta recurrsion formulas. Particular emphasis is placed on cost effective solutions for large finite element models such as the Space Shuttle with friction degrees of freedom between the orbiter and payloads mounted in the cargo bay. An alteration to the dynamic finite difference equations of motion is discussed, which allows one to include friction effects at reasonable cost for large structural systems such as the Space Shuttle. Data are presented to indicate the possible impact of transient friction loads to the payload designer for the Space Shuttle. Transient response solution data are also included, which compare solutions without friction forces and those with friction forces for payloads mounted in the Space Shuttle cargo bay. These data indicate that payload components can be sensitive to friction induced loads.

  2. Dynamic response analysis of block foundations with nonlinear dry friction mounting system to impact loads

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zheng, Enlai; Zhu, Sihong; Zhou, Xinlong

    2014-01-01

    It is essential to establish a dynamic model to predict and evaluate the dynamic performance of a nonlinear dry friction mounting system during design procedure, when it is impossible to carry out the test of prototype. Unlike the conventional ideal dry friction model where the direction of dry friction force is always considered to be opposite to that of relative velocity, a new equivalent resistance model of dry friction force is proposed based on the bilinear hysteretic model by introducing a parameter g in this work. The equivalent resistance contains spring force and damping force, whose direction is not opposite to that of relative velocity. Then, a dynamic model of the block foundation with nonlinear dry friction mounting system is established. When the equivalent resistance is applied to the dynamic model, its dynamic responses are obtained under common practical forms of press loads: rectangular pulse, half-sine pulse, and triangular pulse. Compared to experimental results, the dynamic responses based on the equivalent resistance model are more consistent with the simulation results based on the ideal dry friction model and the validity of the equivalent resistance model for the bilinear hysteretic model in this work is verified. Furthermore, the effect of the pulse shape and pulse duration on the dynamic responses of the block foundation with nonlinear dry friction mounting system is investigated.

  3. Methodology for combining dynamic responses. Technical report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mattu, R.K.

    1980-05-01

    Procedures in accordance with Appendix A of 10 CFR 50, GDC 2, call for an appropriate combination of the effects of the accident loads and loads caused by natural phenomena (such as earthquakes) to be reflected in the design bases of safety equipment. This requirement of interaction of loads has been implemented in various ways both within the NRC and the Nuclear Industry. An NRR Working Group constituted to examine load combination methodologies developed recommendations which were published in September 1978 as NUREG-0484, (PB-287 432). Revision 1 of NUREG-0484 extends the conclusions of the original NUREG-0484 on the use of SRSS methodology for the combination of SSE and LOCA responses beyond RCPB to any other ASME Section III, Class 1, 2, or 3 affected system, component or support, and provides criteria for the combination of dynamic responses other than SSE and LOCA

  4. Solution of Media Risk and Social Responsibility Governance of Social Media

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhang Yuan

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The rapid development of media technology makes the modern society become a “social media” or even “over social media”, the rise of social media makes it beyond the tool attribute, and become an important force in the reconstruction of contemporary society, the risk of concomitant. The anomie and breach of Social media regularly staged, weakened its positive social function, forcing us to think about the social responsibility of social media,which are reflections on the lack of responsibility, but also positive response of resolving the media risk and ask for moral strength.

  5. Damping mathematical modelling and dynamic responses for FRP laminated composite plates with polymer matrix

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Qimao

    2018-02-01

    This paper proposes an assumption that the fibre is elastic material and polymer matrix is viscoelastic material so that the energy dissipation depends only on the polymer matrix in dynamic response process. The damping force vectors in frequency and time domains, of FRP (Fibre-Reinforced Polymer matrix) laminated composite plates, are derived based on this assumption. The governing equations of FRP laminated composite plates are formulated in both frequency and time domains. The direct inversion method and direct time integration method for nonviscously damped systems are employed to solve the governing equations and achieve the dynamic responses in frequency and time domains, respectively. The computational procedure is given in detail. Finally, dynamic responses (frequency responses with nonzero and zero initial conditions, free vibration, forced vibrations with nonzero and zero initial conditions) of a FRP laminated composite plate are computed using the proposed methodology. The proposed methodology in this paper is easy to be inserted into the commercial finite element analysis software. The proposed assumption, based on the theory of material mechanics, needs to be further proved by experiment technique in the future.

  6. Continuous process tracing and the Iowa Gambling Task: Extending response dynamics to multialternative choice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gregory J. Koop

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The history of judgment and decision making is defined by a trend toward increasingly nuanced explanations of the decision making process. Recently, process models have become incredibly sophisticated, yet the tools available to directly test these models have not kept pace. These increasingly complex process models require increasingly complex process data by which they can be adequately tested. We propose a new class of data collection that will facilitate evaluation of sophisticated process models. Tracking mouse paths during a continuous response provides an implicit measure of the growth of preference that produces a choice---rather than the current practice of recording just the button press that indicates that choice itself. Recent research in cognitive science (Spivey and Dale, 2006 has shown that cognitive processing can be revealed in these dynamic motor responses. Unlike current process methodologies, these response dynamics studies can demonstrate continuous competition between choice options and even online preference reversals. Here, in order to demonstrate the mechanics and utility of the methodology, we present an example response dynamics experiment utilizing a common multi-alternative decision task.

  7. "Don't know" responses to risk perception measures: implications for underserved populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waters, Erika A; Hay, Jennifer L; Orom, Heather; Kiviniemi, Marc T; Drake, Bettina F

    2013-02-01

    Risk perceptions are legitimate targets for behavioral interventions because they can motivate medical decisions and health behaviors. However, some survey respondents may not know (or may not indicate) their risk perceptions. The scope of "don't know" (DK) responding is unknown. Examine the prevalence and correlates of responding DK to items assessing perceived risk of colorectal cancer. Two nationally representative, population-based, cross-sectional surveys (2005 National Health Interview Survey [NHIS]; 2005 Health Information National Trends Survey [HINTS]), and one primary care clinic-based survey comprised of individuals from low-income communities. Analyses included 31,202 (NHIS), 1,937 (HINTS), and 769 (clinic) individuals. Five items assessed perceived risk of colorectal cancer. Four of the items differed in format and/or response scale: comparative risk (NHIS, HINTS); absolute risk (HINTS, clinic), and "likelihood" and "chance" response scales (clinic). Only the clinic-based survey included an explicit DK response option. "Don't know" responding was 6.9% (NHIS), 7.5% (HINTS-comparative), and 8.7% (HINTS-absolute). "Don't know" responding was 49.1% and 69.3% for the "chance" and "likely" response options (clinic). Correlates of DK responding were characteristics generally associated with disparities (e.g., low education), but the pattern of results varied among samples, question formats, and response scales. The surveys were developed independently and employed different methodologies and items. Consequently, the results were not directly comparable. There may be multiple explanations for differences in the magnitude and characteristics of DK responding. "Don't know" responding is more prevalent in populations affected by health disparities. Either not assessing or not analyzing DK responses could further disenfranchise these populations and negatively affect the validity of research and the efficacy of interventions seeking to eliminate health disparities.

  8. RISK AND FIRM VALUE IN EUROPEAN COMPANIES: A DYNAMIC PANEL DATA APPROACH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudiu Botoc

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Recent uncertainties in financial markets and several company bankruptcies reinforce the relationship between risk and return as a cornerstone in corporate finance. Enterprise risk management theories offer unambiguous predictions about the relation between firm value and risk. The main aim of the paper is to provide new empirical evidence on the risk as a driver for company value creation process for European developed countries over the period 2001-2011. Using dynamic panel data model with two-step GMM-SYS method and enterprise multiple as a new approach to measure for firm value the results suggest that firm value is negatively related with risk, which is consistent with Bowman’s risk and return paradox. The negative relation between firm value and risk is robust through alternative measures, but it does not hold for companies from civil law countries. Additional control variables included in the model are significant and suggest that both growth and capital structure are negatively related with firm value.

  9. Nonlinear dynamic response of cable-suspended systems under swinging and heaving motion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cao, Guohua; Wang, Naige; Wang, Lei; Zhu, Zhencai

    2017-01-01

    In order to enhance the fidelity, convenient and flexibility of swinging motion, the structure of incompletely restrained cablesuspended system controlled by two drums was proposed, and the dynamic response of the system under swinging and heaving motion were investigated in this paper. The cables are spatially discretized using the assumed modes method and the system equations of motion are derived by Lagrange equations of the first kind. Based on geometric boundary conditions and linear complementary theory, the differential algebraic equations are transformed to a set of classical difference equations. Nonlinear dynamic behavior occurs under certain range of rotational velocity and frequency. The results show that asynchronous motion of suspension platform is easily caused imbalance for cable tension. Dynamic response of different swing frequencies were obtained via power frequency analysis, which could be used in the selection of the working frequency of the swing motion. The work will contribute to a better understanding of the swing frequency, cable tension and posture with dynamic characteristics of unilateral geometric and kinematic constraints in this system, and it is also useful to investigate the accuracy and reliability of instruments in future.

  10. Nonlinear dynamic response of cable-suspended systems under swinging and heaving motion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cao, Guohua; Wang, Naige; Wang, Lei; Zhu, Zhencai [China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou (China)

    2017-07-15

    In order to enhance the fidelity, convenient and flexibility of swinging motion, the structure of incompletely restrained cablesuspended system controlled by two drums was proposed, and the dynamic response of the system under swinging and heaving motion were investigated in this paper. The cables are spatially discretized using the assumed modes method and the system equations of motion are derived by Lagrange equations of the first kind. Based on geometric boundary conditions and linear complementary theory, the differential algebraic equations are transformed to a set of classical difference equations. Nonlinear dynamic behavior occurs under certain range of rotational velocity and frequency. The results show that asynchronous motion of suspension platform is easily caused imbalance for cable tension. Dynamic response of different swing frequencies were obtained via power frequency analysis, which could be used in the selection of the working frequency of the swing motion. The work will contribute to a better understanding of the swing frequency, cable tension and posture with dynamic characteristics of unilateral geometric and kinematic constraints in this system, and it is also useful to investigate the accuracy and reliability of instruments in future.

  11. THE ETHICS OF OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH AND SAFETY IN TURKEY: RESPONSIBILITY AND CONSENT TO RISK.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Artvinli, Fatih

    2016-06-01

    Work-related diseases, injuries, risks and deaths are the issues that have been recently gaining importance especially in developing countries. The ethical dimensions of occupational health and safety have remained as relatively understudied areas. Concepts such as responsibility, consent, autonomy, paternalism, choice, and certain values or justifications that are used in medical ethics and bioethics are also applicable to occupational health and safety. This article examines the ethical issues of responsibility and consent to occupational risk. It will first define the concepts of consent and risk, and then different views on responsibility and consent to risk will be discussed. The article will also examine the responsibility of the society and government regarding these concepts.

  12. Dynamic response of Hovercraft lift fans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moran, D. D.

    1981-08-01

    Hovercraft lift fans are subjected to varying back pressure due to wave action and craft motions when these vehicles are operating in a seaway. The oscillatory back pressure causes the fans to perform dynamically, exhibiting a hysteresis type of response and a corresponding degradation in mean performance. Since Hovercraft motions are influenced by variations in lift fan pressure and discharge, it is important to understand completely the nature of the dynamic performance of lift fans in order to completely solve the Hovercraft seakeeping problem. The present study was performed to determine and classify the instabilities encountered in a centrifugal fan operating against time-varying back pressure. A model-scale experiment was developed in which the fan discharge was directed into a flow-measuring device, terminating in a rotating valve which produced an oscillatory back pressure superimposed upon a mean aerodynamic resistance. Pressure and local velocity were measured as functions of time at several locations in the fan volute. The measurements permitted the identification of rotating (or propagating) stall in the impeller. One cell and two cell configurations were classified and the transient condition connecting these two configurations was observed. The mechanisms which lead to rotating stall in a centrifugal compressor are presented and discussed with specific reference to Hovercraft applications.

  13. Dynamical Networks Characterization of Geomagnetic Substorms and Transient Response to the Solar Wind State.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapman, S. C.; Dods, J.; Gjerloev, J. W.

    2017-12-01

    Observations of how the solar wind interacts with earth's magnetosphere, and its dynamical response, are increasingly becoming a data analytics challenge. Constellations of satellites observe the solar corona, the upstream solar wind and throughout earth's magnetosphere. These data are multipoint in space and extended in time, so in principle are ideal for study using dynamical networks to characterize the full time evolving spatial pattern. We focus here on analysis of data from the full set of 100+ auroral ground based magnetometer stations that have been collated by SuperMAG. Spatio-temporal patterns of correlation between the magnetometer time series can be used to form a dynamical network [1]. The properties of the network can then be captured by (time dependent) network parameters. This offers the possibility of characterizing detailed spatio-temporal pattern by a few parameters, so that many events can then be compared [2] with each other. Whilst networks are in widespread use in the data analytics of societal and commercial data, there are additional challenges in their application to physical timeseries. Determining whether two nodes (here, ground based magnetometer stations) are connected in a network (seeing the same dynamics) requires normalization w.r.t. the detailed sensitivities and dynamical responses of specific observing stations and seasonal conductivity variations and we have developed methods to achieve this dynamical normalization. The detailed properties of the network capture time dependent spatial correlation in the magnetometer responses and we will show how this can be used to infer a transient current system response to magnetospheric activity. [l] Dods et al, J. Geophys. Res 120, doi:10.1002/2015JA02 (2015). [2] Dods et al, J. Geophys. Res. 122, doi:10.1002/2016JA02 (2017).

  14. Increasing blood flow to exercising muscle attenuates systemic cardiovascular responses during dynamic exercise in humans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ichinose, Masashi; Ichinose-Kuwahara, Tomoko; Kondo, Narihiko; Nishiyasu, Takeshi

    2015-11-15

    Reducing blood flow to working muscles during dynamic exercise causes metabolites to accumulate within the active muscles and evokes systemic pressor responses. Whether a similar cardiovascular response is elicited with normal blood flow to exercising muscles during dynamic exercise remains unknown, however. To address that issue, we tested whether cardiovascular responses are affected by increases in blood flow to active muscles. Thirteen healthy subjects performed dynamic plantarflexion exercise for 12 min at 20%, 40%, and 60% of peak workload (EX20, EX40, and EX60) with their lower thigh enclosed in a negative pressure box. Under control conditions, the box pressure was the same as the ambient air pressure. Under negative pressure conditions, beginning 3 min after the start of the exercise, the box pressure was decreased by 20, 45, and then 70 mmHg in stepwise fashion with 3-min step durations. During EX20, the negative pressure had no effect on blood flow or the cardiovascular responses measured. However, application of negative pressure increased blood flow to the exercising leg during EX40 and EX60. This increase in blood flow had no significant effect on systemic cardiovascular responses during EX40, but it markedly attenuated the pressor responses otherwise seen during EX60. These results demonstrate that during mild exercise, normal blood flow to exercising muscle is not a factor eliciting cardiovascular responses, whereas it elicits an important pressor effect during moderate exercise. This suggests blood flow to exercising muscle is a major determinant of cardiovascular responses during dynamic exercise at higher than moderate intensity. Copyright © 2015 the American Physiological Society.

  15. Single-cell and population NF-κB dynamic responses depend on lipopolysaccharide preparation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miriam V Gutschow

    Full Text Available Lipopolysaccharide (LPS, found in the outer membrane of gram-negative bacteria, elicits a strong response from the transcription factor family Nuclear factor (NF-κB via Toll-like receptor (TLR 4. The cellular response to lipopolysaccharide varies depending on the source and preparation of the ligand, however. Our goal was to compare single-cell NF-κB dynamics across multiple sources and concentrations of LPS.Using live-cell fluorescence microscopy, we determined the NF-κB activation dynamics of hundreds of single cells expressing a p65-dsRed fusion protein. We used computational image analysis to measure the nuclear localization of the fusion protein in the cells over time. The concentration range spanned up to nine orders of magnitude for three E. coli LPS preparations. We find that the LPS preparations induce markedly different responses, even accounting for potency differences. We also find that the ability of soluble TNF receptor to affect NF-κB dynamics varies strikingly across the three preparations.Our work strongly suggests that the cellular response to LPS is highly sensitive to the source and preparation of the ligand. We therefore caution that conclusions drawn from experiments using one preparation may not be applicable to LPS in general.

  16. Three-dimensional dose-response models of risk for radiation injury carcinogenesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raabe, O.G.

    1988-01-01

    The use of computer graphics in conjunction with three-dimensional models of dose-response relationships for chronic exposure to ionizing radiation dramaticly clarifies the separate and interactive roles of competing risks. The three dimensions are average dose rate, exposure time, and risk. As an example, the functionally injurious and carcinogenic responses after systemic uptake of Ra-226 by beagles, mice and people with consequent alpha particle irradiation of the bone are represented by three-dimensional dose-rate/time/response surfaces that demonstrate the contributions with the passage of time of the competing deleterious responses. These relationships are further evaluated by mathematical stripping with three-dimensional illustrations that graphically show the resultant separate contribution of each effect. Radiation bone injury predominates at high dose rates and bone cancer at intermediate dose rates. Low dose rates result in spontaneous deaths from natural aging, yielding a type of practical threshold for bone cancer induction. Risk assessment is benefited by the insights that become apparent with these three-dimensional models. The improved conceptualization afforded by them contributes to planning and evaluating epidemiological analyses and experimental studies

  17. System-spanning dynamically jammed region in response to impact of cornstarch and water suspensions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, Benjamin; Sokol, Benjamin; Mukhopadhyay, Shomeek; Maharjan, Rijan; Brown, Eric

    2018-05-01

    We experimentally characterize the structure of concentrated suspensions of cornstarch and water in response to impact. Using surface imaging and particle tracking at the boundary opposite the impactor, we observed that a visible structure and particle flow at the boundary occur with a delay after impact. We show the delay time is about the same time as the strong stress response, confirming that the strong stress response results from deformation of the dynamically jammed structure once it spans between the impactor and a solid boundary. A characterization of this strong stress response is reported in a companion paper [Maharjan, Mukhopadhyay, Allen, Storz, and Brown, Phys. Rev. E 97, 052602 (2018), 10.1103/PhysRevE.97.052602]. We observed particle flow in the outer part of the dynamically jammed region at the bottom boundary, with a net transverse displacement of up to about 5% of the impactor displacement, indicating shear at the boundary. Direct imaging of the surface of the outer part of the dynamically jammed region reveals a change in surface structure that appears the same as the result of dilation in other cornstarch suspensions. Imaging also reveals cracks, like a brittle solid. These observations suggest the dynamically jammed structure can temporarily support stress according to an effective modulus, like a soil or dense granular material, along a network of frictional contacts between the impactor and solid boundary.

  18. On the importance of excited state dynamic response electron correlation in polarizable embedding methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eriksen, Janus J; Sauer, Stephan P A; Mikkelsen, Kurt V; Jensen, Hans J Aa; Kongsted, Jacob

    2012-09-30

    We investigate the effect of including a dynamic reaction field at the lowest possible ab inito wave function level of theory, namely the Hartree-Fock (HF) self-consistent field level within the polarizable embedding (PE) formalism. We formulate HF based PE within the linear response theory picture leading to the PE-random-phase approximation (PE-RPA) and bridge the expressions to a second-order polarization propagator approximation (SOPPA) frame such that dynamic reaction field contributions are included at the RPA level in addition to the static response described at the SOPPA level but with HF induced dipole moments. We conduct calculations on para-nitro-aniline and para-nitro-phenolate using said model in addition to dynamic PE-RPA and PE-CAM-B3LYP. We compare the results to recently published PE-CCSD data and demonstrate how the cost effective SOPPA-based model successfully recovers a great portion of the inherent PE-RPA error when the observable is the solvatochromic shift. We furthermore demonstrate that whenever the change in density resulting from the ground state-excited state electronic transition in the solute is not associated with a significant change in the electric field, dynamic response contributions formulated at the HF level of theory manage to capture the majority of the system response originating from derivative densities. Copyright © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  19. Incorporating risk communication into highly pathogenic avian influenza preparedness and response efforts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voss, Shauna J; Malladi, Sasidhar; Sampedro, Fernando; Snider, Tim; Goldsmith, Timothy; Hueston, William D; Lauer, Dale C; Halvorson, David A

    2012-12-01

    A highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreak in the United States will initiate a federal emergency response effort that will consist of disease control and eradication efforts, including quarantine and movement control measures. These movement control measures will not only apply to live animals but also to animal products. However, with current egg industry "just-in-time" production practices, limited storage is available to hold eggs. As a result, stop movement orders can have significant unintended negative consequences, including severe disruptions to the food supply chain. Because stakeholders' perceptions of risk vary, waiting to initiate communication efforts until an HPAI event occurs can hinder disease control efforts, including the willingness of producers to comply with the response, and also can affect consumers' demand for the product. A public-private-academic partnership was formed to assess actual risks involved in the movement of egg industry products during an HPAI event through product specific, proactive risk assessments. The risk analysis process engaged a broad representation of stakeholders and promoted effective risk management and communication strategies before an HPAI outbreak event. This multidisciplinary team used the risk assessments in the development of the United States Department of Agriculture, Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Secure Egg Supply Plan, a comprehensive response plan that strives to maintain continuity of business. The collaborative approach that was used demonstrates how a proactive risk communication strategy that involves many different stakeholders can be valuable in the development of a foreign animal disease response plan and build working relationships, trust, and understanding.

  20. Venues, Patrons, and Alcohol Use Dynamics: The Creation of a High Risk Sexual Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balán, Iván C.; Barreda, Victoria; Marone, Rubén; Ávila, María Mercedes; Carballo-Diéguez, Alex

    2014-01-01

    Venue-based HIV prevention interventions, especially in sex on premise venues, can disrupt high-risk sexual networks. However, prior to intervening, it is essential to understand the person-venue dynamics that contribute to HIV risk. As such, we conducted five ethnographic observations at each of six venues where alcohol is sold and sex occurs onsite (2 each porn theaters, sex clubs, and dance clubs) frequented by gay and other men who have sex with men (G&MSM) in the Buenos Aires metropolitan area. Alcohol use, sexual behavior, and person-venue dynamics differed markedly across venue types. In dance clubs, substantial alcohol consumption often preceded visits to the darkroom for sex which, at times, included unprotected anal and vaginal intercourse. Condoms, although available, were not easily accessible. HIV prevention messaging was generally non-existent. These venues are in critical need of interventions to reduce HIV transmission risk. PMID:24691922

  1. Venues, patrons, and alcohol use dynamics: the creation of a high risk sexual environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balán, Iván C; Barreda, Victoria; Marone, Rubén; Avila, María Mercedes; Carballo-Diéguez, Alex

    2014-11-01

    Venue-based HIV prevention interventions, especially in sex on premise venues, can disrupt high-risk sexual networks. However, prior to intervening, it is essential to understand the person-venue dynamics that contribute to HIV risk. As such, we conducted five ethnographic observations at each of six venues where alcohol is sold and sex occurs onsite (2 each porn theaters, sex clubs, and dance clubs) frequented by gay and other men who have sex with men (G&MSM) in the Buenos Aires metropolitan area. Alcohol use, sexual behavior, and person-venue dynamics differed markedly across venue types. In dance clubs, substantial alcohol consumption often preceded visits to the darkroom for sex which, at times, included unprotected anal and vaginal intercourse. Condoms, although available, were not easily accessible. HIV prevention messaging was generally non-existent. These venues are in critical need of interventions to reduce HIV transmission risk.

  2. How Overall Logistics Strategy Mediates The Influence Of Market Attractiveness And Dynamic Capability On Strategic Competitive Response

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Febriyanto

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available This research is conducted to examine the influence of market attractiveness and dynamic capability on strategic competitive response through overall logistics strategies of logistics service providers LSPs. Involving 266 LSPs SEM-LISREL is applied to test the hypotheses. The findings reveal that the market attractiveness and the dynamic capability positively affect the overall logistics strategy. Additionally the market attractiveness and the dynamic capability positively affect the strategic competitive response. Indirectly the market attractiveness and the dynamic capability positively affect the performance through strategic competitive response of LSPs. Obviously overall logistics strategy strengthen the influence of both market attractiveness and dynamic capability on strategic competitive response. There are five alternatives to optimize the overall logistics strategy of LSPs market intensification integration focus collaboration and strengthening value proposition. The involvement of overall logistics strategy as mediating variable is new paradigm in the strategic management discourses especially in logistics industry. Further research needs to be performed by involving the size of business as control variable and LSPs perception on Governments policies.

  3. Risk assessment on an Argentinean road with a dynamic traffic simulator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voumard, Jérémie; Baumann, Valérie; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Derron, Marc-Henri; Penna, Ivanna

    2014-05-01

    The National Route 7 in Argentina is one of the most important corridors crossing the Andean Cordillera. It concentrates most of the traffic related to the Southern Common Market (MERCOSUR), it also connects Mendoza city (the fourth most populated in Argentina) with Santiago de Chile (the Chile capital city), and is used by tourists to access to the Aconcagua National park, Puente del Inca natural monument, skiing resorts, and to local displacements for the villages along the Mendoza valley. The road crosses the Andes through the Mendoza river valley at an elevation between 2'000 and 3'000 m. The traffic (2500 vehicles/day) is composed of motorcycles, cars and pickup trucks, trucks without trailer, buses, and semi-trailer trucks. Debris flows developed along tributaries of the Mendoza River, and due to remobilization of talus materials, impact frequently the road, causing traffic disruptions, bridges damages, etc. Rock falls detached from highly fractured outcrops also impact frequently the road, causing sometimes casualties. The aim of this study is to evaluate risk along sections of the National Road 7 develop along the Mendoza river, using a dynamic traffic simulator based on MATLAB© routine. The dynamic traffic simulator developed for natural hazards events on roads consider different scenarios based on traffic speeds, vehicle types, interactions types, road properties and natural processes. Here we show that vehicle types and traffic variations may influence the risk estimation. The analyzed risk on several critical sections of the National Route 7 demonstrates that risk may significantly increase: 1) on sinuous sections, steep sections and because of road conditions changes (exit of tunnel, bridges, road width, etc.) because of decreasing vehicle speed, particularly with semi-trailer trucks; 2) when an event, such a debris flow, occurs and generates a vehicle tailback increasing their duration presence in the risk area.

  4. Note: A high dynamic range, linear response transimpedance amplifier.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eckel, S; Sushkov, A O; Lamoreaux, S K

    2012-02-01

    We have built a high dynamic range (nine decade) transimpedance amplifier with a linear response. The amplifier uses junction-gate field effect transistors (JFETs) to switch between three different resistors in the feedback of a low input bias current operational amplifier. This allows for the creation of multiple outputs, each with a linear response and a different transimpedance gain. The overall bandwidth of the transimpedance amplifier is set by the bandwidth of the most sensitive range. For our application, we demonstrate a three-stage amplifier with transimpedance gains of approximately 10(9)Ω, 3 × 10(7)Ω, and 10(4)Ω with a bandwidth of 100 Hz.

  5. Volcanic risk and tourism in southern Iceland: Implications for hazard, risk and emergency response education and training

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bird, Deanne K.; Gisladottir, Gudrun; Dominey-Howes, Dale

    2010-01-01

    This paper examines the relationship between volcanic risk and the tourism sector in southern Iceland and the complex challenge emergency management officials face in developing effective volcanic risk mitigation strategies. An early warning system and emergency response procedures were developed for communities surrounding Katla, the volcano underlying the Mýrdalsjökull ice cap. However, prior to and during the 2007 tourist season these mitigation efforts were not effectively communicated to stakeholders located in the tourist destination of Þórsmörk despite its location within the hazard zone of Katla. The hazard zone represents the potential extent of a catastrophic jökulhlaup (glacial outburst flood). Furthermore, volcanic risk mitigation efforts in Þórsmörk were based solely on information derived from physical investigations of volcanic hazards. They did not consider the human dimension of risk. In order to address this gap and provide support to current risk mitigation efforts, questionnaire surveys were used to investigate tourists' and tourism employees' hazard knowledge, risk perception, adoption of personal preparedness measures, predicted behaviour if faced with a Katla eruption and views on education. Results indicate that tourists lack hazard knowledge and they do not adopt preparedness measures to deal with the consequences of an eruption. Despite a high level of risk perception, tourism employees lack knowledge about the early warning system and emergency response procedures. Results show that tourists are positive about receiving information concerning Katla and its hazards and therefore, the reticence of tourism employees with respect to disseminating hazard information is unjustified. In order to improve the tourism sector's collective capacity to positively respond during a future eruption, recommendations are made to ensure adequate dissemination of hazard, risk and emergency response information. Most importantly education campaigns

  6. Molecular dynamics simulation of potentiometric sensor response: the effect of biomolecules, surface morphology and surface charge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowe, B M; Skylaris, C-K; Green, N G; Shibuta, Y; Sakata, T

    2018-05-10

    The silica-water interface is critical to many modern technologies in chemical engineering and biosensing. One technology used commonly in biosensors, the potentiometric sensor, operates by measuring the changes in electric potential due to changes in the interfacial electric field. Predictive modelling of this response caused by surface binding of biomolecules remains highly challenging. In this work, through the most extensive molecular dynamics simulation of the silica-water interfacial potential and electric field to date, we report a novel prediction and explanation of the effects of nano-morphology on sensor response. Amorphous silica demonstrated a larger potentiometric response than an equivalent crystalline silica model due to increased sodium adsorption, in agreement with experiments showing improved sensor response with nano-texturing. We provide proof-of-concept that molecular dynamics can be used as a complementary tool for potentiometric biosensor response prediction. Effects that are conventionally neglected, such as surface morphology, water polarisation, biomolecule dynamics and finite-size effects, are explicitly modelled.

  7. Striatal dopaminergic reward response relates to age of first drunkenness and feedback response in at-risk youth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiland, Barbara J; Zucker, Robert A; Zubieta, Jon-Kar; Heitzeg, Mary M

    2017-03-01

    Dopamine receptor concentrations, primarily in the striatum, are hypothesized to contribute to a developmental imbalance between subcortical and prefrontal control systems in emerging adulthood potentially biasing motivation and increasing risky behaviors. Positron emission tomography studies have found significant reductions in striatal dopamine D2 receptors, and blunted amphetamine-induced dopamine release, in substance users compared with healthy controls. Extant literature is limited and inconsistent concerning vulnerability associated with having a family history of substance abuse (FH+). Some studies have reported familial liability associated with higher dopamine receptor levels, reduced dopamine response to stimulant challenges and decreased response to oral alcohol. However, other reports have failed to find group differences based on family history. We explored the interaction of familial liability and behavioral risk with multi-modal molecular and neural imaging of the dopaminergic system. Forty-four young adult male subjects performed monetary incentive delay tasks during both [ 11 C]raclopride positron emission tomography and functional magnetic resonance imaging scans. FH+ subjects were identified as low (n = 24) or high risk (n = 9) based on early initiation of drunkenness. FH+ high-risk subjects exhibited heightened striatal dopamine response to monetary reward but did not differ in neural activations compared with FH+ low risk subjects and controls with no familial loading (n = 11). Across all subjects, a negative relationship was found between dopamine release and age of first drunkenness and a positive relationship with neural response to reward receipt. These results suggest that in at-risk individuals, higher dopamine transmission associated with monetary reward may represent a particularly useful neurobiological phenotype. © 2016 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  8. Neural Correlates of Rewarded Response Inhibition in Youth at Risk for Problematic Alcohol Use

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brenden Tervo-Clemmens

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Risk for substance use disorder (SUD is associated with poor response inhibition and heightened reward sensitivity. During adolescence, incentives improve performance on response inhibition tasks and increase recruitment of cortical control areas (Geier et al., 2010 associated with SUD (Chung et al., 2011. However, it is unknown whether incentives moderate the relationship between response inhibition and trait-level psychopathology and personality features of substance use risk. We examined these associations in the current project using a rewarded antisaccade (AS task (Geier et al., 2010 in youth at risk for substance use. Participants were 116 adolescents and young adults (ages 12–21 from the University of Pittsburgh site of the National Consortium on Adolescent Neurodevelopment and Alcohol [NCANDA] study, with neuroimaging data collected at baseline and 1 year follow up visits. Building upon previous work using this task in normative developmental samples (Geier et al., 2010 and adolescents with SUD (Chung et al., 2011, we examined both trial-wise BOLD responses and those associated with individual task-epochs (cue presentation, response preparation, and response and associated them with multiple substance use risk factors (externalizing and internalizing psychopathology, family history of substance use, and trait impulsivity. Results showed that externalizing psychopathology and high levels of trait impulsivity (positive urgency, SUPPS-P were associated with general decreases in antisaccade performance. Accompanying this main effect of poor performance, positive urgency was associated with reduced recruitment of the frontal eye fields (FEF and inferior frontal gyrus (IFG in both a priori regions of interest and at the voxelwise level. Consistent with previous work, monetary incentive improved antisaccade behavioral performance and was associated with increased activation in the striatum and cortical control areas. However, incentives did

  9. Selection of technical risk responses for efficient contingencies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kujawski, Edouard

    2002-02-28

    The primary goal of good project risk management should be to successfully deliver projects for the lowest cost at an acceptable level of risk. This requires the systematic development and implementation of a set of Risk Response Actions (RRA) that achieves the lowest total project cost for a given probability of success while meeting technical performance and schedule. We refer to this set as the ''efficient RRA set''. This work presents a practical and mathematically sound approach for determining the efficient RRA set. It builds on some of Markowitz's portfolio selection principles and introduces several conceptual and modeling differences to properly treat project technical risks. The set of RRAs is treated as whole and not just individual risks. The efficient RRA set is determined based on ''Outcome Cost Vs Probability of Success''. The risks and RRAs are characterized using scenarios, decision trees, and cumulative probability distributions. The analysis provides information that enables decision-makers to select the efficient RRA set that explicitly takes their attitude toward project risk into account. Decision-makers should find it both useful and practical for sound decision-making under uncertainty/risk and efficiently optimizing project success. The computations are readily performed using commercially available Monte Carlo simulation tools. The approach is detailed using a realistic but simplified case of a project with two technical risks.

  10. Maternal verbal responses to communication of infants at low and heightened risk of autism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leezenbaum, Nina B; Campbell, Susan B; Butler, Derrecka; Iverson, Jana M

    2014-08-01

    This study investigates mothers' responses to infant communication among infants at heightened genetic risk (high risk) of autism spectrum disorder compared to infants with no such risk (low risk). A total of 26 infants, 12 of whom had an older sibling with autism spectrum disorder, were observed during naturalistic in-home interaction and semistructured play with their mothers at 13 and 18 months of age. Results indicate that overall, mothers of low-risk and high-risk infants were highly and similarly responsive to their infants' communicative behaviors. However, examination of infant vocal and gestural communication development together with maternal verbal responses and translations (i.e. verbally labeling a gesture referent) suggests that delays in early communication development observed among high-risk infants may alter the input that these infants receive; this in turn may have cascading effects on the subsequent development of communication and language. © The Author(s) 2013.

  11. A Dynamic Market Mechanism for Markets with Shiftable Demand Response

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Jacob; Knudsen, Jesper Viese; Kiani, Arman

    2014-01-01

    renewables, this mechanism accommodates both consumers with a shiftable Demand Response and an adjustable Demand Response. The overall market mechanism is evaluated in a Day Ahead Market and is shown in a numerical example to result in a reduction of the cost of electricity for the consumer, as well......In this paper, we propose a dynamic market mechanism that converges to the desired market equilibrium. Both locational marginal prices and the schedules for generation and consumption are determined through a negotiation process between the key market players. In addition to incorporating...

  12. Making assessments while taking repeated risks: a pattern of multiple response pathways.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pleskac, Timothy J; Wershbale, Avishai

    2014-02-01

    Beyond simply a decision process, repeated risky decisions also require a number of cognitive processes including learning, search and exploration, and attention. In this article, we examine how multiple response pathways develop over repeated risky decisions. Using the Balloon Analogue Risk Task (BART) as a case study, we show that 2 different response pathways emerge over the course of the task. The assessment pathway is a slower, more controlled pathway where participants deliberate over taking a risk. The 2nd pathway is a faster, more automatic process where no deliberation occurs. Results imply the slower assessment pathway is taken as choice conflict increases and that the faster automatic response is a learned response. Based on these results, we modify an existing formal cognitive model of decision making during the BART to account for these dual response pathways. The slower more deliberative response process is modeled with a sequential sampling process where evidence is accumulated to a threshold, while the other response is given automatically. We show that adolescents with conduct disorder and substance use disorder symptoms not only evaluate risks differently during the BART but also differ in the rate at which they develop the more automatic response. More broadly, our results suggest cognitive models of judgment decision making need to transition from treating observed decisions as the result of a single response pathway to the result of multiple response pathways that change and develop over time.

  13. Artificial Neural Networks for Nonlinear Dynamic Response Simulation in Mechanical Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Niels Hørbye; Høgsberg, Jan Becker; Winther, Ole

    2011-01-01

    It is shown how artificial neural networks can be trained to predict dynamic response of a simple nonlinear structure. Data generated using a nonlinear finite element model of a simplified wind turbine is used to train a one layer artificial neural network. When trained properly the network is ab...... to perform accurate response prediction much faster than the corresponding finite element model. Initial result indicate a reduction in cpu time by two orders of magnitude....

  14. Influence of Simulated Neuromuscular Noise on the Dynamic Stability and Fall Risk of a 3D Dynamic Walking Model

    OpenAIRE

    Roos, Paulien E.; Dingwell, Jonathan B.

    2011-01-01

    Measures that can predict risk of falling are essential for enrollment of older adults into fall prevention programs. Local and orbital stability directly quantify responses to very small perturbations and are therefore putative candidates for predicting fall risk. However, research to date is not conclusive on whether and how these measures relate to fall risk. Testing this empirically would be time consuming or may require high risk tripping experiments. Simulation studies therefore provide...

  15. Optimal Responsible Investment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jessen, Pernille

    Numerous institutions are now engaged in Socially Responsible Investment or have signed the "UN Principles for Responsible Investment". Retail investors, however, are still lacking behind. This is peculiar since the sector constitutes key stakeholders in environmental, social and governmental...... standards. This paper considers optimal responsible investment for a small retail investor. It extends conventional portfolio theory by allowing for a personal-value based investment decision. Preferences for responsibility are defined in the framework of mean-variance analysis and an optimal responsible...... investment model identified. Implications of the altered investment problem are investigated when the dynamics between portfolio risk, expected return and responsibility is considered. Relying on the definition of a responsible investor, it is shown how superior investment opportunities can emerge when...

  16. Development of a dynamical systems model of plant programmatic performance on nuclear power plant safety risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hess, Stephen M.; Albano, Alfonso M.; Gaertner, John P.

    2005-01-01

    Application of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) techniques to model nuclear power plant accident sequences has provided a significant contribution to understanding the potential initiating events, equipment failures and operator errors that can lead to core damage accidents. Application of the lessons learned from these analyses has resulted in significant improvements in plant operation and safety. However, this approach has not been nearly as successful in addressing the impact of plant processes and management effectiveness on the risks of plant operation. The research described in this paper presents an alternative approach to addressing this issue. In this paper we propose a dynamical systems model that describes the interaction of important plant processes on nuclear safety risk. We discuss development of the mathematical model including the identification and interpretation of significant inter-process interactions. Next, we review the techniques applicable to analysis of nonlinear dynamical systems that are utilized in the characterization of the model. This is followed by a preliminary analysis of the model that demonstrates that its dynamical evolution displays features that have been observed at commercially operating plants. From this analysis, several significant insights are presented with respect to the effective control of nuclear safety risk. As an important example, analysis of the model dynamics indicates that significant benefits in effectively managing risk are obtained by integrating the plant operation and work management processes such that decisions are made utilizing a multidisciplinary and collaborative approach. We note that although the model was developed specifically to be applicable to nuclear power plants, many of the insights and conclusions obtained are likely applicable to other process industries

  17. Damping mathematical modelling and dynamic responses for FRP laminated composite plates with polymer matrix

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liu Qimao

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes an assumption that the fibre is elastic material and polymer matrix is viscoelastic material so that the energy dissipation depends only on the polymer matrix in dynamic response process. The damping force vectors in frequency and time domains, of FRP (Fibre-Reinforced Polymer matrix laminated composite plates, are derived based on this assumption. The governing equations of FRP laminated composite plates are formulated in both frequency and time domains. The direct inversion method and direct time integration method for nonviscously damped systems are employed to solve the governing equations and achieve the dynamic responses in frequency and time domains, respectively. The computational procedure is given in detail. Finally, dynamic responses (frequency responses with nonzero and zero initial conditions, free vibration, forced vibrations with nonzero and zero initial conditions of a FRP laminated composite plate are computed using the proposed methodology. The proposed methodology in this paper is easy to be inserted into the commercial finite element analysis software. The proposed assumption, based on the theory of material mechanics, needs to be further proved by experiment technique in the future.

  18. Dynamic simulation of perturbation responses in a closed-loop virtual arm model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, Yu-Fan; He, Xin; Lan, Ning

    2010-01-01

    A closed-loop virtual arm (VA) model has been developed in SIMULINK environment by adding spinal reflex circuits and propriospinal neural networks to the open-loop VA model developed in early study [1]. An improved virtual muscle model (VM4.0) is used to speed up simulation and to generate more precise recruitment of muscle force at low levels of muscle activation. Time delays in the reflex loops are determined by their synaptic connections and afferent transmission back to the spinal cord. Reflex gains are properly selected so that closed-loop responses are stable. With the closed-loop VA model, we are developing an approach to evaluate system behaviors by dynamic simulation of perturbation responses. Joint stiffness is calculated based on simulated perturbation responses by a least-squares algorithm in MATLAB. This method of dynamic simulation will be essential for further evaluation of feedforward and reflex control of arm movement and position.

  19. Development of radiation risk assessment simulator using system dynamics methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, Kyung Min; Jae, Moosung

    2008-01-01

    The potential magnitudes of radionuclide releases under severe accident loadings and offsite consequences as well as the overall risk (the product of accident frequencies and consequences) are analyzed and evaluated quantitatively in this study. The system dynamics methodology has been applied to predict the time-dependent behaviors such as feedback and dependency as well as to model uncertain behavior of complex physical system. It is used to construct the transfer mechanisms of time dependent radioactivity concentration and to evaluate them. Dynamic variations of radio activities are simulated by considering several effects such as deposition, weathering, washout, re-suspension, root uptake, translocation, leaching, senescence, intake, and excretion of soil. The time-dependent radio-ecological model applicable to Korean specific environment has been developed in order to assess the radiological consequences following the short-term deposition of radio-nuclides during severe accidents nuclear power plant. An ingestion food chain model can estimate time dependent radioactivity concentrations in foodstuffs. And it is also shown that the system dynamics approach is useful for analyzing the phenomenon of the complex system as well as the behavior of structure values with respect to time. The output of this model (Bq ingested per Bq m - 2 deposited) may be multiplied by the deposition and a dose conversion factor (Gy Bq -1 ) to yield organ-specific doses. The model may be run deterministically to yield a single estimate or stochastic distributions by 'Monte-Carlo' calculation that reflects uncertainty of parameter and model uncertainties. The results of this study may contribute to identifying the relative importance of various parameters occurred in consequence analysis, as well as to assessing risk reduction effects in accident management. (author)

  20. Radiation response and chromatin dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ikura, Tsuyoshi

    2009-01-01

    Described is a recent progress in studies of chromatin structural alterations induced by DNA damage by radiation. DNA in eukaryotes exists in the chromatin structure and different mechanisms of response to damage and repair of DNA from those in prokaryotes have been recognized. Chromatin is composed from its unit structure of mono-nucleosome, which is formed from DNA and an octamer of core histones of H2A, H2B, H3 and H4. When DNA is damaged, histone structural alterations are required for repair factors and checkpoint proteins to access the damaged site. At the actual genome damage, chemical modification of histone to work as a code occurs dependently on the damage where chromatin remodeling factors and histone chaperone participate for structural alteration and remodeling. As well, the exchange of histone variants and fluidization of histones are recently reported. Known chemical modification involves phosphorylation, acetylation and ubiquitination of H2AX (a variant of H2A), and acetylation and methylation of H3. Each complex of TIP60, NuA4 and INO80 is known to be included in the regulation of chromatin with damaged/repaired DNA for remodeling, but little is known about recruitment of the factors concerned at the damage site. Regulatory mechanisms in above chromatin dynamics with consideration of quality and timing of radiation should be further elucidated for understanding the precise response to DNA damage. (K.T.)

  1. Integral transform solutions of dynamic response of a clamped–clamped pipe conveying fluid

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gu Jijun; An Chen; Duan Menglan; Levi, Carlos; Su Jian

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ► Dynamic response of pipe conveying fluid was studied numerically. ► The generalized integral transform technique (GITT) was applied. ► Numerical solutions with automatic global accuracy control were obtained. ► Excellent convergence behavior was shown. ► Modal separation analysis was carried out and the influence of mass ratio was analyzed. - Abstract: Analysis of dynamic response of pipe conveying fluid is an important aspect in nuclear power plant design. In the present paper, dynamic response of a clamped–clamped pipe conveying fluid was solved by the generalized integral transform technique (GITT). The governing partial differential equation was transformed into a set of second-order ordinary differential equations which is then numerically solved by making use of the subroutine DIVPAG from IMSL Library. A thorough convergence analysis was performed to yield sets of reference results of the transverse deflection at different time and spanwise position. We found good agreement between the computed natural frequencies at mode 1–3 and those obtained by previous theoretical study. Besides, modal separation analysis was carried out and the influence of mass ratio on deflection and natural frequencies was qualitatively and quantitatively assessed.

  2. The sensitivity and dynamic response of field ionization gas sensor based on ZnO nanorods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Min Jiahua; Liang Xiaoyan; Wang Bin; Wang Linjun; Zhao Yue; Shi Weimin; Xia Yiben

    2011-01-01

    Field ionization gas sensors based on ZnO nanorods (50–300 nm in diameter, and 3–8 μm in length) with and without a buffer layer were fabricated, and the influence of the orientation of nano-ZnO on the ionization response of devices was discussed, including the sensitivity and dynamic response of the ZnO nanorods with preferential orientation. The results indicated that ZnO nanorods as sensor anode could dramatically decrease the breakdown voltage. The XRD and SEM images illustrated that nano-ZnO with a ZnO buffer layer displayed high c-axis orientation, which helps to significantly reduce the breakdown voltage. Device A based on ZnO nanorods with a ZnO buffer layer could distinguish toluene and acetone. The dynamic responses of device A to the NO x compounds presented the sensitivity of 0.045 ± 0.007 ppm/pA and the response speed within 17–40 s, and indicated a linear relationship between NO x concentration and current response at low NO x concentrations. In addition, the dynamic responses to benzene, isopropyl alcohol, ethanol, and methanol reveals that the device has higher sensitivity to gas with larger static polarizability and lower ionization energy.

  3. 2nd International Conference on Dynamics of Disasters

    CERN Document Server

    Nagurney, Anna; Pardalos, Panos

    2016-01-01

    This volume results from the “Second International Conference on Dynamics of Disasters” held in Kalamata, Greece, June 29-July 2, 2015. The conference covered particular topics involved in natural and man-made disasters such as war, chemical spills, and wildfires. Papers in this volume examine the finer points of disasters through: · Critical infrastructure protection · Resiliency · Humanitarian logistic · Relief supply chains · Cooperative game theory · Dynamical systems · Decision making under risk and uncertainty · Spread of diseases · Contagion · Funding for disaster relief · Tools for emergency preparedness · Response, and risk mitigation Multi-disciplinary theories, tools, techniques and methodologies are linked with disasters from mitigation and preparedness to response and recovery. The interdisciplinary approach to problems in economics, optimization, government, management, business, humanities, engineering, medicine, mathematics, computer science, behavioral studies, emergency servi...

  4. Effect of driving voltage polarity on dynamic response characteristics of electrowetting liquid lens

    Science.gov (United States)

    Na, Xie; Ning, Zhang; Rong-Qing, Xu

    2018-05-01

    A test device is developed for studying the dynamic process of an electrowetting liquid lens. By analyzing the light signals through the liquid lens, the dynamical properties of the lens are investigated. In our experiment, three types of pulse, i.e., sine, bipolar pulse, and single pulse signals, are employed to drive the liquid lens, and the dynamic characteristics of the lens are subsequently analyzed. The results show that the positive and negative polarities of the driving voltage can cause a significant difference in the response of the liquid lens; meanwhile, the lens’s response to the negative polarity of the driving voltage is clearer. We use the theory of charge restraint to explain this phenomenon, and it is concluded that the negative ions are more easily restrained by a dielectric layer. This work gives direct guidance for practical applications based on an electrowetting liquid lens.

  5. Coordinated approaches to quantify long-term ecosystem dynamics in response to global change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liu, Y.; Melillo, J.; Niu, S.

    2011-01-01

    a coordinated approach that combines long-term, large-scale global change experiments with process studies and modeling. Long-term global change manipulative experiments, especially in high-priority ecosystems such as tropical forests and high-latitude regions, are essential to maximize information gain......Many serious ecosystem consequences of climate change will take decades or even centuries to emerge. Long-term ecological responses to global change are strongly regulated by slow processes, such as changes in species composition, carbon dynamics in soil and by long-lived plants, and accumulation...... to be the most effective strategy to gain the best information on long-term ecosystem dynamics in response to global change....

  6. Interaction Dynamics Determine Signaling and Output Pathway Responses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Klement Stojanovski

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The understanding of interaction dynamics in signaling pathways can shed light on pathway architecture and provide insights into targets for intervention. Here, we explored the relevance of kinetic rate constants of a key upstream osmosensor in the yeast high-osmolarity glycerol-mitogen-activated protein kinase (HOG-MAPK pathway to signaling output responses. We created mutant pairs of the Sln1-Ypd1 complex interface that caused major compensating changes in the association (kon and dissociation (koff rate constants (kinetic perturbations but only moderate changes in the overall complex affinity (Kd. Yeast cells carrying a Sln1-Ypd1 mutant pair with moderate increases in kon and koff displayed a lower threshold of HOG pathway activation than wild-type cells. Mutants with higher kon and koff rates gave rise to higher basal signaling and gene expression but impaired osmoadaptation. Thus, the kon and koff rates of the components in the Sln1 osmosensor determine proper signaling dynamics and osmoadaptation.

  7. Quantitative Evaluation of Tumor Early Response to a Vascular-Disrupting Agent with Dynamic PET.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Ning; Zhang, Fan; Zhang, Xiaomeng; Guo, Jinxia; Lang, Lixin; Kiesewetter, Dale O; Niu, Gang; Li, Quanzheng; Chen, Xiaoyuan

    2015-12-01

    The purpose of this study is to evaluate the early response of tumors to a vascular-disrupting agent (VDA) VEGF121/recombinant toxin gelonin (rGel) using dynamic [(18)F]FPPRGD2 positron emission tomography (PET) and kinetic parameter estimation. Two tumor xenograft models: U87MG (highly vascularized) and A549 (moderately vascularized), were selected, and both were randomized into treatment and control groups. Sixty-minute dynamic PET scans with [(18)F]FPPRGD2 that targets to integrin αvβ3 were performed at days 0 (baseline), 1, and 3 since VEGF121/rGel treatment started. Dynamic PET-derived binding potential (BPND) and parametric maps were compared with tumor uptake (%ID/g) and the static PET image at 1 h after the tracer administration. The growth of U87MG tumor was obviously delayed upon VEGF121/rGel treatment. A549 tumor was not responsive to the same treatment. BPND of treated U87MG tumors decreased significantly at day 1 (p dynamic PET with [(18)F]FPPRGD2 shows advantages in distinguishing effective from ineffective treatment during the course of VEGF121/rGel therapy at early stage and is therefore more sensitive in assessing therapy response than static PET.

  8. Response analysis of the dynamic excitation of hen eggs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Libor Severa

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Commercially produced hen eggs have been tested by means of dynamic excitation of the egg-shells with following analysis of their response. The falling steel ball have been chosen as a exciting instrument and the laser vibrometer have been used as a measuring device for the egg response. The reproductibility of the experiments has been relatively high and the surface velocity has been found to be significantly dependent on the position around the meridian. Analysed frequency spectrum has shown the peak frequency and frequency history. Proposed numerical model has demonstrated reasonable agreement with experimental results and can be used as an effective tool in modelling of analogous or similar experiments.

  9. Observed Responses of Mesospheric Water Vapor to Solar Cycle and Dynamical Forcings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Remsberg, Ellis; Damadeo, Robert; Natarajan, Murali; Bhatt, Praful

    2018-04-01

    This study focuses on responses of mesospheric water vapor (H2O) to the solar cycle flux at Lyman-α wavelength and to dynamical forcings according to the multivariate El-Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index. The zonal-averaged responses are for latitudes from 60°S to 60°N and pressure-altitudes from 0.01 to 1.0 hPa, as obtained from multiple linear regression analyses of time series of H2O from the Halogen Occultation Experiment for July 1992 to November 2005. The results compare very well with those from a separate simultaneous temporal and spatial (STS) method that also confirms that there are no significant sampling biases affecting both sets of results. Distributions of the seasonal amplitudes for temperature and H2O are in accord with the seasonal net circulation. In general, the responses of H2O to ENSO are anticorrelated with those of temperature. H2O responses to multivariate ENSO index are negative in the upper mesosphere and largest in the Northern Hemisphere; responses in the lower mesosphere are more symmetric with latitude. H2O responses to the Lyman-α flux (Lya) vary from strong negative values in the uppermost mesosphere to very weak, positive values in the tropical lowermost mesosphere. However, the effects of those H2O responses to the solar activity extend to the rest of the mesosphere via dynamical processes. Profiles of the responses to ENSO and Lya also agree reasonably with published results for H2O at the low latitudes from the Microwave Limb Sounder.

  10. Recent innovation of geospatial information technology to support disaster risk management and responses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Une, Hiroshi; Nakano, Takayuki

    2018-05-01

    Geographic location is one of the most fundamental and indispensable information elements in the field of disaster response and prevention. For example, in the case of the Tohoku Earthquake in 2011, aerial photos taken immediately after the earthquake greatly improved information sharing among different government offices and facilitated rescue and recovery operations, and maps prepared after the disaster assisted in the rapid reconstruction of affected local communities. Thanks to the recent development of geospatial information technology, this information has become more essential for disaster response activities. Advancements in web mapping technology allows us to better understand the situation by overlaying various location-specific data on base maps on the web and specifying the areas on which activities should be focused. Through 3-D modelling technology, we can have a more realistic understanding of the relationship between disaster and topography. Geospatial information technology can sup-port proper preparation and emergency responses against disasters by individuals and local communities through hazard mapping and other information services using mobile devices. Thus, geospatial information technology is playing a more vital role on all stages of disaster risk management and responses. In acknowledging geospatial information's vital role in disaster risk reduction, the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030, adopted at the Third United Nations World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction, repeatedly reveals the importance of utilizing geospatial information technology for disaster risk reduction. This presentation aims to report the recent practical applications of geospatial information technology for disaster risk management and responses.

  11. Numerical analysis of dynamic response of vehicle–bridge coupled system on long-span continuous girder bridge

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lipeng An

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available To systematically study the vehicle–bridge coupled dynamic response and its change rule with different parameters, a vehicle model with seven degrees of freedom was built and the total potential energy of vehicle space vibration system was deduced. Considering the stimulation of road roughness, the dynamic response equation of vehicle–bridge coupled system was established in accordance with the elastic system principle of total potential energy with stationary value and the “set-in-right-position” rule. On the basis of the self-compiled Fortran program and bridge engineering, the dynamic response of long-span continuous girder bridge under vehicle load was studied. This study also included the calculation of vehicle impact coefficient, evaluation of vibration comfort, and analysis of dynamic response parameters. Results show the impact coefficient changes with lane number and is larger than the value calculated by the “general code for design of highway bridges and culverts (China”. The Dieckmann index of bridge vibration is also related to lane number, and the vibration comfort evaluation is good in normal conditions. The relevant conclusions from parametric analyses have practical significance to dynamic design and daily operation of long-span continuous girder bridges in expressways. Safety and comfort are expected to improve significantly with further control of the vibration of vehicle–bridge system.

  12. Experimental analysis and simulation of the dynamic response of a propeller pitch change actuator

    OpenAIRE

    LECLERCQ, Maxime; MALBURET, François; VERON, Philippe

    2012-01-01

    This paper focuses specifically on the control of the propeller pitch change mechanisms and their associated dynamics. The subject of this article is restricted to the mechanisms using a hydraulic single acting actuator. They function asymmetrically and are subject to important varying external loads under the full flight envelope. This phenomenon has an impact on their dynamic response.The question of the dynamics of these systems is rarely dealt with because, usually for aircraft applicatio...

  13. Experimental benchmark for piping system dynamic-response analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1981-01-01

    This paper describes the scope and status of a piping system dynamics test program. A 0.20 m(8 in.) nominal diameter test piping specimen is designed to be representative of main heat transport system piping of LMFBR plants. Particular attention is given to representing piping restraints. Applied loadings consider component-induced vibration as well as seismic excitation. The principal objective of the program is to provide a benchmark for verification of piping design methods by correlation of predicted and measured responses. Pre-test analysis results and correlation methods are discussed

  14. Experimental benchmark for piping system dynamic response analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schott, G.A.; Mallett, R.H.

    1981-01-01

    The scope and status of a piping system dynamics test program are described. A 0.20-m nominal diameter test piping specimen is designed to be representative of main heat transport system piping of LMFBR plants. Attention is given to representing piping restraints. Applied loadings consider component-induced vibration as well as seismic excitation. The principal objective of the program is to provide a benchmark for verification of piping design methods by correlation of predicted and measured responses. Pre-test analysis results and correlation methods are discussed. 3 refs

  15. Correction of the dynamic response of the ''Gamma thermometers'' using a digital filter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jacquot, J.P.; Lobert, J.P.

    1985-01-01

    The ''gamma thermometer'' is a sensor used to measure on line the local power inside a PWR nuclear reactor. During transients, this sensor based on thermal exchanges, obes not give a fast response. This paper describes a microprocessor device that allows using a digital filtering technique, a correction of the dynamic response [fr

  16. Optimization of a dynamic supply portfolio considering risks and discount’s constraints

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Masoud Rabbani

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: Nowadays finding reliable suppliers in the global supply chains has become so important for success, because reliable suppliers would lead to a reliable supply and besides that orders of customer are met effectively . Yet, there is little empirical evidence to support this view, hence the purpose of this paper is to fill this need by considering risk in order to find the optimum supply portfolio. Design/methodology/approach: This paper proposes a multi objective model for the supplier selection portfolio problem that uses conditional value at risk (CVaR criteria to control the risks of delayed, disrupted and defected supplies via scenario analysis. Also we consider discount’s constraints which are common assumptions in supplier selection problems. The proposed approach is capable of determining the optimal supply portfolio by calculating value-at-risk and minimizing conditional value-at-risk. In this study the Reservation Level driven Tchebycheff Procedure (RLTP which is one of the reference point methods, is used to solve small size of our model through coding in GAMS. As our model is NP-hard; a meta-heuristic approach, Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm (NSGA which is one of the most efficient methods for optimizing multi objective models, is applied to solve large scales of our model. Findings and Originality/value: In order to find a dynamic supply portfolio, we developed a Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP model which contains two objectives. One objective minimizes the cost and the other minimizes the risks of delayed, disrupted and defected supplies. CVaR is used as the risk controlling method which emphases on low-probability, high-consequence events. Discount option as a common offer from suppliers is also implanted in the proposed model. Our findings show that the proposed model can help in optimization of a dynamic supplier selection portfolio with controlling the corresponding risks for large scales of real word

  17. Dynamic response characteristics analysis of the doubly-fed wind power system under grid voltage drop

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Y.; Wang, J.; Wang, H. H.; Yang, L.; Chen, W.; Xu, Y. T.

    2016-08-01

    Double-fed induction generator (DFIG) is sensitive to the disturbances of grid, so the security and stability of the grid and the DFIG itself are under threat with the rapid increase of DFIG. Therefore, it is important to study dynamic response of the DFIG when voltage drop failure is happened in power system. In this paper, firstly, mathematical models and the control strategy about mechanical and electrical response processes is respectively introduced. Then through the analysis of response process, it is concluded that the dynamic response characteristics are related to voltage drop level, operating status of DFIG and control strategy adapted to rotor side. Last, the correctness of conclusion is validated by the simulation about mechanical and electrical response processes in different voltage levels drop and different DFIG output levels under DIgSILENT/PowerFactory software platform.

  18. News media coverage of trans fat: health risks and policy responses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jarlenski, Marian; Barry, Colleen L

    2013-01-01

    Prior research indicates that the news media play a critical role in transmitting information to the public about the most pressing public health problems, and framing attributions about who in society is responsible for solving these problems. In this article, we use content analysis methods to study the agenda-setting and framing functions of the news media in shaping perceptions about the health risks posed by trans fat in the U.S. diet. A census of news stories focusing on trans fat was collected from the two largest circulation U.S. newspapers and three major television networks from 1998 to 2008 (N = 156). The content of news coverage was analyzed using a 23-item instrument. Findings indicated that the news media served an important agenda-setting role in educating the public about the presence of trans fat in the U.S. diet and describing the health risks these foods pose. In addition, results indicate that news media coverage framed attributions of responsibility for solving the problem of trans fat in the food supply. News stories noting the heart disease risks of trans fat were significantly more likely to mention governmental responses aimed at curbing consumption than news coverage that did not note these health risks.

  19. Reconstructing a Network of Stress-Response Regulators via Dynamic System Modeling of Gene Regulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei-Sheng Wu

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Unicellular organisms such as yeasts have evolved mechanisms to respond to environmental stresses by rapidly reorganizing the gene expression program. Although many stress-response genes in yeast have been discovered by DNA microarrays, the stress-response transcription factors (TFs that regulate these stress-response genes remain to be investigated. In this study, we use a dynamic system model of gene regulation to describe the mechanism of how TFs may control a gene’s expression. Then, based on the dynamic system model, we develop the Stress Regulator Identification Algorithm (SRIA to identify stress-response TFs for six kinds of stresses. We identified some general stress-response TFs that respond to various stresses and some specific stress-response TFs that respond to one specifi c stress. The biological significance of our findings is validated by the literature. We found that a small number of TFs is probably suffi cient to control a wide variety of expression patterns in yeast under different stresses. Two implications can be inferred from this observation. First, the response mechanisms to different stresses may have a bow-tie structure. Second, there may be regulatory cross-talks among different stress responses. In conclusion, this study proposes a network of stress-response regulators and the details of their actions.

  20. Cardiorespiratory Dynamic Response to Mental Stress: A Multivariate Time-Frequency Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Devy Widjaja

    2013-01-01

    out continuously in time to evaluate the dynamic response to mental stress and attention. The results show an increased heart and respiratory rate during stress and attention, compared to a resting condition. Also a fast reduction in vagal activity is noted. The partial TF analysis reveals a faster reduction of RRV power related to (3 s than unrelated to (30 s respiration, demonstrating that the autonomic response to mental stress is driven by mechanisms characterized by different temporal scales.

  1. Dynamic Response Analysis of Microflow Electrochemical Sensors with Two Types of Elastic Membrane

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qiuzhan Zhou

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available The Molecular Electric Transducer (MET, widely applied for vibration measurement, has excellent sensitivity and dynamic response at low frequencies. The elastic membrane in the MET is a significant factor with an obvious effect on the performance of the MET in the low frequency domain and is the focus of this paper. In simulation experiments, the elastic membrane and the reaction cavity of the MET were analysed in a model based on the multiphysics finite element method. Meanwhile, the effects caused by the elastic membrane elements are verified in this paper. With the numerical simulation and practical experiments, a suitable elastic membrane can be designed for different cavity structures. Thus, the MET can exhibit the best dynamic response characteristics to measure the vibration signals. With the new method presented in this paper, it is possible to develop and optimize the characteristics of the MET effectively, and the dynamic characteristics of the MET can be improved in a thorough and systematic manner.

  2. Guidelines for communicating about the risks of nuclear energy effectively, responsibly, and ethically

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Covello, V.T.

    1991-01-01

    This paper presents and discusses guidelines for communicating information about the risks of nuclear energy effectively, responsibility, and ethically. It consists of four parts: guidelines for communicating risk information; guidelines for presenting and explaining risk-related numbers and statistics; guidelines for presenting and explaining risk comparisons; and problems frequently encountered in communicating risk information

  3. THE ROLE OF CORPORATE SOCIAL RESPONSIBILITY DISCLOSURE TOWARD COMPANY STOCK PRICE CRASH RISK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Handiyono M.Y.

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to analyze the influence of corporate social responsibility disclosure to company stock price crash risk. If socially responsible companies are committed to high standards of information transparency and do not hide bad news, they will have a low risk of crash. However, if the manager reports CSR to distract the stakeholder from bad news, the CSR will be associated with a high risk of the company stock crash. The study was conducted at Indonesian manufacturing companies registered on the IDX (BEI for the 2010-2015 period Hypothesis testing technique used a multiple regression analysis. The results showed that activities of the corporate social responsibility disclosure by the company did not have a significant relationship to the risk of the company stock price crash. This study also found that companies that conduct and report social responsibility activities simultaneously have a low risk of crashes on their company's stock price but cannot prove the relationship between the two. The implication is that social accountability reports in Indonesia are still limited to reports only and have not been considered as anything that can contribute to add value to the company or that may prevent the company from unethical behavior.

  4. Digitalising the General Data Protection Regulation with Dynamic Condition Response Graphs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heuck, Emil; Hildebrandt, Thomas; Kiærulff Lerche, Rasmus

    2017-01-01

    We describe how the declarative Dynamic Condition Response (DCR) Graphs proces notation can be used to digitalise the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) and make a first evaluation to what extend the formalisation and associated tool for end-user modelling and simulation can be used to cla...

  5. Contracts for Cross-organizational Workflows as Timed Dynamic Condition Response Graphs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hildebrandt, Thomas; Mukkamala, Raghava Rao; Slaats, Tijs

    2013-01-01

    We conservatively extend the declarative Dynamic Condition Response (DCR) Graph process model, introduced in the PhD thesis of the second author, to allow for discrete time deadlines. We prove that safety and liveness properties can be verified by mapping finite timed DCR Graphs to finite state...

  6. Youth suicide attempts and the dose-response relationship to parental risk factors: a population-based study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, E; Goldney, R D; Beautrai, A L

    2011-01-01

    BACKGROUND: There is a lack of specific knowledge about the dose-response effect of multiple parental risk factors for suicide attempts among children and adolescents. The aim of this study was to determine the dose-response effect of multiple parental risk factors on an offspring's risk for suic......BACKGROUND: There is a lack of specific knowledge about the dose-response effect of multiple parental risk factors for suicide attempts among children and adolescents. The aim of this study was to determine the dose-response effect of multiple parental risk factors on an offspring's risk...... for suicide attempt.MethodWe designed a population-based two-generation nested case-control study and used Danish register data. A population of 403 431 individuals born between 1983 and 1989 was sampled. Among these, 3465 (0.8%) were registered as having had a suicide attempt. Twenty controls were matched...... to each case and a link to the offspring's biological parents was established. RESULTS: There was a dose-response relationship between the number of exposures and the risk of suicide attempts, with the increased risk seeming to be a multiplicative effect. Parental suicide, suicide attempt, psychiatric...

  7. Study on Dynamic Response of Downhole Tools under Perforation Impact Load

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liu Jun

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available A model of a multibody system is established to investigate the dynamic response of an oil tube-shock absorber-perforating gun system in downhole perforation-test joint operation. In the model, the oil tube and perforating gun are modeled as elastic rods and the shock absorber is modeled as single particle system with damping and a spring. Two force continuity conditions are used to simulate the interactions among the three components. The perforation impact load is determined by an experiment of underwater explosion of perforating bullets. Using the model, the effects of charge quantity of perforating bullet, the number of shock absorbers, and the length of oil tube on the dynamic response of oil tube and packer are investigated. On this basis, a basic principle of the combination design of shock absorber and oil tube is proposed to improve the mechanical state of downhole tools. The study results can provide theoretical support for the design of downhole perforation-test joint operation.

  8. Attachment and Jealousy: Understanding the Dynamic Experience of Jealousy Using the Response Escalation Paradigm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huelsnitz, Chloe O; Farrell, Allison K; Simpson, Jeffry A; Griskevicius, Vladas; Szepsenwol, Ohad

    2018-04-01

    Jealousy is a complex, dynamic experience that unfolds over time in relationship-threatening situations. Prior research has used retrospective reports that cannot disentangle initial levels and change in jealousy in response to escalating threat. In three studies, we examined responses to the Response Escalation Paradigm (REP)-a 5-stage hypothetical scenario in which individuals are exposed to increasing levels of relationship threat-as a function of attachment orientations. Highly anxious individuals exhibited hypervigilant, slow escalation response patterns, interfered earlier in the REP, felt more jealousy, sadness, and worry when they interfered, and wanted to engage in more vigilant, destructive, and passive behaviors aimed at their partner. Highly avoidant individuals felt more anger when they interfered in the REP and wanted to engage in more partner-focused, destructive behaviors. The REP offers a dynamic method for inducing and examining jealousy and introduces a novel approach to studying other emotional experiences.

  9. Dynamic response of the train-track-bridge system subjected to derailment impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ling, Liang; Dhanasekar, Manicka; Thambiratnam, David P.

    2018-04-01

    Derailments on bridges, although not frequent, when occurs due to a complex dynamic interaction of the train-track-bridge structural system, are very severe. Furthermore, the forced vibration induced by the post-derailment impacts can toss out the derailed wagons from the bridge deck with severe consequences to the traffic underneath and the safety of the occupants of the wagons. This paper presents a study of the train-track-bridge interaction during a heavy freight train crossing a concrete box girder bridge from a normal operation to a derailed state. A numerical model that considers the bridge vibration, train-track interaction and the train post-derailment behaviour is formulated based on a coupled finite-element - multi-body dynamics (FE-MBD) theory. The model is applied to predict the post-derailment behaviour of a freight train composed of one locomotive and several wagons, as well as the dynamic response of a straight single-span simply supported bridge containing ballast track subjected to derailment impacts. For this purpose, a typical derailment scenario of a heavy freight train passing over a severe track geometry defect is introduced. The dynamic derailment behaviour of the heavy freight train and the dynamic responses of the rail bridge are illustrated through numerical examples. The results exhibit the potential for tossing out of the derailed trains from the unstable increase in the yaw angle signature and a lower rate of increase of the bridge deck bending moment compared to the increase in the static axle load of the derailed wheelset.

  10. Stability of Mixed-Strategy-Based Iterative Logit Quantal Response Dynamics in Game Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhuang, Qian; Di, Zengru; Wu, Jinshan

    2014-01-01

    Using the Logit quantal response form as the response function in each step, the original definition of static quantal response equilibrium (QRE) is extended into an iterative evolution process. QREs remain as the fixed points of the dynamic process. However, depending on whether such fixed points are the long-term solutions of the dynamic process, they can be classified into stable (SQREs) and unstable (USQREs) equilibriums. This extension resembles the extension from static Nash equilibriums (NEs) to evolutionary stable solutions in the framework of evolutionary game theory. The relation between SQREs and other solution concepts of games, including NEs and QREs, is discussed. Using experimental data from other published papers, we perform a preliminary comparison between SQREs, NEs, QREs and the observed behavioral outcomes of those experiments. For certain games, we determine that SQREs have better predictive power than QREs and NEs. PMID:25157502

  11. Measurement of AC losses in superconducting tapes by reproduction of thermometric dynamic response

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ligneris, Benoit des; Aubin, Marcel; Cave, Julian

    2003-04-15

    We have developed a dynamic response thermometric method for the measurement of AC losses in high T{sub c} superconductors. This method is based on the comparison of a temperature response caused by a known dissipation in the sample with that produced by the AC losses. By passing a DC current and measuring the DC voltage and corresponding temperature response the sample can be used as its own power dissipation reference. The advantages of this method are the short measurement duration time and the possibility to vary many experimental conditions: for example, AC and DC transport currents and AC, DC and rotating applied magnetic fields. In this article we present the basic method using variable short pulses of constant DC current for calibration and similarly of constant amplitude AC current to create the losses. The losses are obtained by numerical modelling and comparison of the thermometric dynamic response in the two above conditions. Finally, we present some experimental results for a Bi2223 superconducting tape at 50 Hz and 77 K.

  12. Theoretical and experimental study on dynamic responses of piping systems with combined dampers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gershtein, M.; Fridman, Ya.; Perelmiter, A.

    1996-01-01

    Vibrations of pipelines transporting fluids, gases, and granular materials are excited by the air flow, internal pressure pulsation, or seismic ground motion. The susceptibility of oil and gas pipelines to seismic damage has been demonstrated in earthquakes everywhere around the world. Devices for above-ground pipelines and piping systems vibration suppression with combination of dry friction and viscous energy dissipation are developed by AVIBRA, Shear deformation of viscous-elastic material in these devices occurs prior to interfacial slip. The way to account this phenomenon is to model the damper as an elastic-viscous element in series with an ideal Coulomb dry friction element. The harmonic balance method was applied to obtain an equivalent viscous damping constant for a combined damper. Iteration process was used to predict a dynamic response of a piping system with combined dampers subjected to sinusoidal excitation. Every iteration step was based on ANSYS procedures. Time integration of systems with hysteretic friction models presents computational difficulties. Some examples of dynamic responses of piping systems were analyzed by a time integration procedure for finite-element models. Combined dry friction-viscous dissipation dampers were tested on a piping model under harmonic excitation. It was clarified that combined dampers are very effective to reduce dynamic response. The seismic response of the piping system with combined dampers was calculated using time history finite-element analysis. The excellent effectiveness of AVIBRA combined dampers for aseismic design and retrofitting of pipelines and piping systems was confirmed by the analysis

  13. Fixation free femoral hernia repair with a 3D dynamic responsive implant. A case series report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amato, G; Romano, G; Agrusa, A; Gordini, L; Gulotta, E; Erdas, E; Calò, P G

    2018-04-23

    To date, no gold standard for the surgical treatment of femoral hernia exists. Pure tissue repair as well as mesh/plug implantation, open or laparoscopic, are the most performed methods. Nevertheless, all these techniques need sutures or mesh fixation. This implies the risk of damaging sensitive structures of the femoral area, along with complications related to tissue tear and postoperative discomfort consequent to poor quality mesh incorporation. The present retrospective multicenter case series highlights the results of femoral hernia repair procedures performed with a 3D dynamic responsive implant in a cohort of 32 patients during a mean follow up of 27 months. Aiming to simplify the surgical procedure and reduce complications, a 3D dynamic responsive implant was delivered for femoral hernia repair, in a patient cohort. After returning the hernia sack to the abdominal cavity, the implant was simply delivered into the hernia defect where it remained, thanks to its inherent centrifugal expansion, obliterating the hernia opening without need of fixation. Postoperative pain assessment was determined using the VAS score system. The use of the 3D prosthetic device allowed for easier and faster surgical repair in a fixation free fashion. None of the typical fixation related complications occurred in the examined patients. Postoperative pain assessment with VAS score showed a very low level of pain, allowing the return of patients to normal activities in extremely reduced times. In the late postoperative period, no discomfort or chronic pain was reported. Femoral hernia repair with the 3D dynamic revealed a quick and safe placement procedure. The reduced pain intensity, as well as the absence of adverse events consequent to sutures or mesh fixation, seems to be a significant benefit of the motile compliance of the device. Furthermore, this 3D prosthesis has already proven to induce an enhanced probiotic response showing ingrowth in the implant of the typical tissue

  14. Protective response to technological emergency: risk perception and behavioral intention

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lindell, M.K.; Barnes, V.E.

    1986-01-01

    This article examines why, as suggested by the Three Mile Island Nuclear Station (TMI) event, the public is more inclined to evacuate in response to a radiation release than to a natural hazard. During the TMI incident, for example, did authorities present confusing or conflicting information or did the public have an exaggerated perception of radiation risk. Behavioral intention studies are combined with risk perception analyses to ascertain (1) the extent to which intentions to evacuate can be generalized from one sample to another and from one hazard to another, (2) the degree to which behavioral intentions are related to specific dimensions of risk perception, and (3) how public perceptions of risk compare with estimates of risk produced by reactor accident consequence analyses

  15. Suppressing epidemic spreading by risk-averse migration in dynamical networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Han-Xin; Tang, Ming; Wang, Zhen

    2018-01-01

    In this paper, we study the interplay between individual behaviors and epidemic spreading in a dynamical network. We distribute agents on a square-shaped region with periodic boundary conditions. Every agent is regarded as a node of the network and a wireless link is established between two agents if their geographical distance is less than a certain radius. At each time, every agent assesses the epidemic situation and make decisions on whether it should stay in or leave its current place. An agent will leave its current place with a speed if the number of infected neighbors reaches or exceeds a critical value E. Owing to the movement of agents, the network's structure is dynamical. Interestingly, we find that there exists an optimal value of E leading to the maximum epidemic threshold. This means that epidemic spreading can be effectively controlled by risk-averse migration. Besides, we find that the epidemic threshold increases as the recovering rate increases, decreases as the contact radius increases, and is maximized by an optimal moving speed. Our findings offer a deeper understanding of epidemic spreading in dynamical networks.

  16. Flexibility dynamics in clusters of residential demand response and distributed generation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    MacDougall, P.A.; Kok, J.K.; Warmer, C.; Roossien, B.

    2013-01-01

    Supply and demand response is a untapped resource in the current electrical system. However little work has been done to investigate the dynamics of utilizing such flexibility as well as the potential effects it could have on the infrastructure. This paper provides a starting point to seeing the

  17. Resting hormone level response to a 16-week dynamic and static ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    South African Journal for Research in Sport, Physical Education and Recreation ... The aim of the study was to evaluate hormonal responses of serum cortisol, growth hormone (GH), testesterone and insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1) levels during dynamic and static stress exercises in 20 male volunteer student athletes.

  18. Protein-DNA binding dynamics predict transcriptional response to nutrients in archaea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Todor, Horia; Sharma, Kriti; Pittman, Adrianne M C; Schmid, Amy K

    2013-10-01

    Organisms across all three domains of life use gene regulatory networks (GRNs) to integrate varied stimuli into coherent transcriptional responses to environmental pressures. However, inferring GRN topology and regulatory causality remains a central challenge in systems biology. Previous work characterized TrmB as a global metabolic transcription factor in archaeal extremophiles. However, it remains unclear how TrmB dynamically regulates its ∼100 metabolic enzyme-coding gene targets. Using a dynamic perturbation approach, we elucidate the topology of the TrmB metabolic GRN in the model archaeon Halobacterium salinarum. Clustering of dynamic gene expression patterns reveals that TrmB functions alone to regulate central metabolic enzyme-coding genes but cooperates with various regulators to control peripheral metabolic pathways. Using a dynamical model, we predict gene expression patterns for some TrmB-dependent promoters and infer secondary regulators for others. Our data suggest feed-forward gene regulatory topology for cobalamin biosynthesis. In contrast, purine biosynthesis appears to require TrmB-independent regulators. We conclude that TrmB is an important component for mediating metabolic modularity, integrating nutrient status and regulating gene expression dynamics alone and in concert with secondary regulators.

  19. Capital Structure, Environmental Dynamism, Innovation Strategy, and Strategic Risk Management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juul Andersen, Torben

    2005-01-01

    Previous research found that capital structure affects performance when it is adapted to the level of environmental dynamism and pursuit of an innovation strategy. The current study reproduces some of these relationships in a more recent dataset but also identifies significant nuances across...... industrial environments. Analyses of a large cross sectional sample and various industry sub-samples suggest that other factors have influenced capital structure effects in recent years including flexibilities in multinational organization and effective strategic risk management capabilities....

  20. A new methodology for dynamic modelling of health risks arising from wastewater influenced urban flooding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jørgensen, Claus; Mark, Ole; Djordjevic, Slobodan; Hammond, Michael; Khan, David M.; Erichsen, Anders; Dorrit Enevoldsen, Ann; Heinicke, Gerald; Helwigh, Birgitte

    2015-04-01

    flood water, based on either measured waste water pathogen concentrations or on assumptions regarding the prevalence of infections in the population. The exposure (dosage) to pathogens was estimated by multiplying the concentration with literature values for the ingestion of water for different exposure groups (e.g. children, adults). The probability of infection was determined by applying dose response relations and MonteCarlo simulation. The methodology is demonstrated on two cases, i.e one case from a developing country with poor sanitation and one case from a developed country, where climate adaptation is the main issue: The risk of cholera in the City of Dhaka, Bangladesh during a flood event 2004, and the risk of bacterial and viral infections of during a flood event in Copenhagen, Denmark in 2011. Results PIC The historical flood events in Dhaka (2004) and Copenhagen (2011) were successfully modelled. The urban flood model was successfully coupled to QMRA. An example of the results of the quantitative microbial risk assessment given as the average estimated risk of cholera infection for children below 5 years living in slum areas in Dhaka is shown in the figure. Similarly, the risk of infection during the flood event in Copenhagen will be presented in the article. Conclusions We have developed a methodology for the dynamic modeling of the risk of infection during waste water influenced urban flooding. The outcome of the modelling exercise indicates that direct contact with polluted flood water is a likely route of transmission of cholera in Dhaka, and bacterial and viral infectious diseases in Copenhagen. It demonstrates the applicability and the potential for linking urban flood models with QMRA in order to identify interventions to reduce the burden of disease on the population in Dhaka City and Copenhagen.

  1. A neural model for transient identification in dynamic processes with 'don't know' response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mol, Antonio C. de A.; Martinez, Aquilino S.; Schirru, Roberto

    2003-01-01

    This work presents an approach for neural network based transient identification which allows either dynamic identification or a 'don't know' response. The approach uses two 'jump' multilayer neural networks (NN) trained with the backpropagation algorithm. The 'jump' network is used because it is useful to dealing with very complex patterns, which is the case of the space of the state variables during some abnormal events. The first one is responsible for the dynamic identification. This NN uses, as input, a short set (in a moving time window) of recent measurements of each variable avoiding the necessity of using starting events. The other one is used to validate the instantaneous identification (from the first net) through the validation of each variable. This net is responsible for allowing the system to provide a 'don't know' response. In order to validate the method, a Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) transient identification problem comprising 15 postulated accidents, simulated for a pressurized water reactor (PWR), was proposed in the validation process it has been considered noisy data in order to evaluate the method robustness. Obtained results reveal the ability of the method in dealing with both dynamic identification of transients and correct 'don't know' response. Another important point studied in this work is that the system has shown to be independent of a trigger signal which indicates the beginning of the transient, thus making it robust in relation to this limitation

  2. The dynamic response of human subjects while seated in car seats.

    OpenAIRE

    Pope, M. H.; Magnusson, M.; Broman, N. H.; Hasson, T.

    1998-01-01

    A pendulum impact method was used to establish the dynamic response of the seated subject. Threaded K wires were placed in the L3 spinous process. The gain and phase angle between the platform and the vertebra were established. The response of the subject was observed while seated on a platform and a variety of other seats. The seats were found to be very important in the attenuation of the impulse, leading to a higher transmissibility. Clinical Relevance Skeletal impact through the lower ext...

  3. Risk for eating disorders modulates startle-responses to body words.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herbert, Cornelia; Kübler, Andrea; Vögele, Claus

    2013-01-01

    Body image disturbances are core symptoms of eating disorders (EDs). Recent evidence suggests that changes in body image may occur prior to ED onset and are not restricted to in-vivo exposure (e.g. mirror image), but also evident during presentation of abstract cues such as body shape and weight-related words. In the present study startle modulation, heart rate and subjective evaluations were examined during reading of body words and neutral words in 41 student female volunteers screened for risk of EDs. The aim was to determine if responses to body words are attributable to a general negativity bias regardless of ED risk or if activated, ED relevant negative body schemas facilitate priming of defensive responses. Heart rate and word ratings differed between body words and neutral words in the whole female sample, supporting a general processing bias for body weight and shape-related concepts in young women regardless of ED risk. Startle modulation was specifically related to eating disorder symptoms, as was indicated by significant positive correlations with self-reported body dissatisfaction. These results emphasize the relevance of examining body schema representations as a function of ED risk across different levels of responding. Peripheral-physiological measures such as the startle reflex could possibly be used as predictors of females' risk for developing EDs in the future.

  4. Risk for eating disorders modulates startle-responses to body words.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cornelia Herbert

    Full Text Available Body image disturbances are core symptoms of eating disorders (EDs. Recent evidence suggests that changes in body image may occur prior to ED onset and are not restricted to in-vivo exposure (e.g. mirror image, but also evident during presentation of abstract cues such as body shape and weight-related words. In the present study startle modulation, heart rate and subjective evaluations were examined during reading of body words and neutral words in 41 student female volunteers screened for risk of EDs. The aim was to determine if responses to body words are attributable to a general negativity bias regardless of ED risk or if activated, ED relevant negative body schemas facilitate priming of defensive responses. Heart rate and word ratings differed between body words and neutral words in the whole female sample, supporting a general processing bias for body weight and shape-related concepts in young women regardless of ED risk. Startle modulation was specifically related to eating disorder symptoms, as was indicated by significant positive correlations with self-reported body dissatisfaction. These results emphasize the relevance of examining body schema representations as a function of ED risk across different levels of responding. Peripheral-physiological measures such as the startle reflex could possibly be used as predictors of females' risk for developing EDs in the future.

  5. Dynamic rockfall risk assessment along the SS113 coastal road (Northern Sicily)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mastrolembo, V. Brunella; Penna, Ivanna; Voumard, Jérémie; Jaboyedoff, Michel

    2016-04-01

    Rockfalls are natural hazards that usually affect only small areas. However, due to the big amount of material that can be moved and the associated kinetic energy they can cost serious damages to infrastructures and people. Even fairly small rockfall fragments are a significant hazard if deposited on a highway or along a rail-road track since they are not easily detected and can cause accidents or derailments. Rockfalls can also cause the closure of streets resulting in long term indirect economic losses due to transportation delays as well as to the impact on the commercial and tourist activities. In letterature there are numerous examples of rockfall risk assessments along transportation corridors, most of them are based on the use of standard risk estimation methods. The latters are static approaches founded on a macroscopic view of road traffic, assumed as uniform in space and time, thus characterized by average values of parameters. Lately, a new dynamic approach has been developed within the 'risk analysis group' at the University of Lausanne (Voumard, 2013). It consists of a kinematic interpretation of road traffic where vehicles are parametrized as single entities with different characteristics, speed, dimensions and behaviour. We apply this new approach to estimate the dynamic risk due to rockfall occurrence on the SS113 national road running along the northern coast of Sicily. In this work we focus our attention on a ≈10 km section along which the SS113 road and a railway connect all the costal villages going through very steep cliffs and very close to the sea with evident problems of erosion and maintenance. The area is a tourist destination and many hotels and facilities are found along the road. Moreover the area was already hit in the past by numerous rockfalls resulting in the closure of the road for periods running from a few days up to a few years with big direct and indirect damages to the local socio-economic activities. In order to achieve a

  6. Travel and biologic therapy: travel-related infection risk, vaccine response and recommendations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, Victoria; Johnson, Douglas; Torresi, Joseph

    2018-01-01

    Biologic therapy has revolutionized the management of refractory chronic autoimmune and auto-inflammatory disease, as well as several malignancies, providing rapid symptomatic relief and/or disease remission. Patients receiving biologic therapies have an improved quality of life, facilitating travel to exotic destinations and potentially placing them at risk of a range of infections. For each biologic agent, we review associated travel-related infection risk and expected travel vaccine response and effectiveness. A PUBMED search [vaccination OR vaccine] AND/OR ['specific vaccine'] AND/OR [immunology OR immune response OR response] AND [biologic OR biological OR biologic agent] was performed. A review of the literature was performed in order to develop recommendations on vaccination for patients in receipt of biologic therapy travelling to high-risk travel destinations. There is a paucity of literature in this area, however, it is apparent that travel-related infection risk is increased in patients on biologic therapy and when illness occurs they are at a higher risk of complication and hospitalization. Patients in receipt of biologic agents are deemed as having a high level of immunosuppression-live vaccines, including the yellow fever vaccine, are contraindicated. Inactivated vaccines are considered safe; however, vaccine response can be attenuated by the patient's biologic therapy, thereby resulting in reduced vaccine effectiveness and protection. Best practice requires a collaborative approach between the patient's primary healthcare physician, relevant specialist and travel medicine expert, who should all be familiar with the immunosuppressive and immunomodulatory effects resulting from the biologic therapies. Timing of vaccines should be carefully planned, and if possible, vaccination provided well before established immunosuppression.

  7. Complex responses of spring alpine vegetation phenology to snow cover dynamics over the Tibetan Plateau, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Siyuan; Wang, Xiaoyue; Chen, Guangsheng; Yang, Qichun; Wang, Bin; Ma, Yuanxu; Shen, Ming

    2017-09-01

    Snow cover dynamics are considered to play a key role on spring phenological shifts in the high-latitude, so investigating responses of spring phenology to snow cover dynamics is becoming an increasingly important way to identify and predict global ecosystem dynamics. In this study, we quantified the temporal trends and spatial variations of spring phenology and snow cover across the Tibetan Plateau by calibrating and analyzing time series of the NOAA AVHRR-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) during 1983-2012. We also examined how snow cover dynamics affect the spatio-temporal pattern of spring alpine vegetation phenology over the plateau. Our results indicated that 52.21% of the plateau experienced a significant advancing trend in the beginning of vegetation growing season (BGS) and 34.30% exhibited a delaying trend. Accordingly, the snow cover duration days (SCD) and snow cover melt date (SCM) showed similar patterns with a decreasing trend in the west and an increasing trend in the southeast, but the start date of snow cover (SCS) showed an opposite pattern. Meanwhile, the spatial patterns of the BGS, SCD, SCS and SCM varied in accordance with the gradients of temperature, precipitation and topography across the plateau. The response relationship of spring phenology to snow cover dynamics varied within different climate, terrain and alpine plant community zones, and the spatio-temporal response patterns were primarily controlled by the long-term local heat-water conditions and topographic conditions. Moreover, temperature and precipitation played a profound impact on diverse responses of spring phenology to snow cover dynamics. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Arctic shipping and risks: Emergency categories and response capacities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marchenko, Nataly A.; Andreassen, Natalia; Borch, Odd Jarl

    2018-01-01

    The sea ice in the Arctic has shrunk significantly in the last decades. The transport pattern has as a result partly changed with more traffic in remote areas. This change may influence the risk pattern. The critical factors are harsh weather, ice conditions, remoteness and vulnerability of natur...... are rare, there are limited statistics available for Arctic maritime accidents. Hence, this study offers a qualitative analysis and an expert-based risk assessment. Implications for the emergency preparedness system of the Arctic region are discussed........ In this paper, we look into the risk of accidents in Atlantic Arctic based on previous ship accidents and the changes in maritime activity. The risk has to be assessed to ensure a proper level of emergency response. The consequences of incidents depend on the incident type, scale and location. As accidents...

  9. Risk-based approach to appraise valve closure in the clam Corbicula fluminea in response to waterborne metals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liao, C.-M.; Jou, L.-J.; Chen, B.-C.

    2005-01-01

    We developed a risk-based approach to assess how the valve closure behavior of Asiatic clam Corbicula fluminea responds to waterborne copper (Cu) and cadmium (Cd). We reanalyzed the valve closure response data from published literature to reconstruct the response time-dependent dose-response profiles based on an empirical three-parameter Hill equation model. We integrated probabilistic exposure profiles of measured environmental Cu and Cd concentrations in the western coastal areas of Taiwan with the reconstructed dose-response relationships at different integration times of response to quantitatively estimate the valve response risk. The risk assessment results implicate exposure to waterborne Cu and Cd may pose no significant risk to clam valve activity in the short-time response periods (e.g., <30 min), yet a relative high risk for valve closure response to waterborne Cu at response times greater than 120 min is alarming. We successfully linked reconstructed dose-response profiles and EC50-time relationships associated with the fitted daily valve opening/closing rhythm characterized by a three-parameter lognormal function to predict the time-varying bivalve closure rhythm response to waterborne metals. We parameterized the proposed predictive model that should encourage a risk-management framework for discussion of future design of biological monitoring systems. - A model was developed to link valve closure in clams to concentrations of metals in water

  10. House Price Risk and Sub-District House Price Dynamics : The Case of Amsterdam

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Teye, A.L.; de Haan, J.; Elsinga, M.G.

    2016-01-01

    The recent Global Financial Crisis has lent even greater urgency to the need for households to understand the risks and dynamics of the residential property market better. This paper uses a rich dataset on individual residential property transactions between 1995 and 2014 in Amsterdam to study the

  11. Regulation-Structured Dynamic Metabolic Model Provides a Potential Mechanism for Delayed Enzyme Response in Denitrification Process

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Song, Hyun-Seob; Thomas, Dennis G.; Stegen, James C.; Li, Minjing; Liu, Chongxuan; Song, Xuehang; Chen, Xingyuan; Fredrickson, Jim K.; Zachara, John M.; Scheibe, Timothy D.

    2017-09-29

    In a recent study of denitrification dynamics in hyporheic zone sediments, we observed a significant time lag (up to several days) in enzymatic response to the changes in substrate concentration. To explore an underlying mechanism and understand the interactive dynamics between enzymes and nutrients, we developed a trait-based model that associates a community’s traits with functional enzymes, instead of typically used species guilds (or functional guilds). This enzyme-based formulation allows to collectively describe biogeochemical functions of microbial communities without directly parameterizing the dynamics of species guilds, therefore being scalable to complex communities. As a key component of modeling, we accounted for microbial regulation occurring through transcriptional and translational processes, the dynamics of which was parameterized based on the temporal profiles of enzyme concentrations measured using a new signature peptide-based method. The simulation results using the resulting model showed several days of a time lag in enzymatic responses as observed in experiments. Further, the model showed that the delayed enzymatic reactions could be primarily controlled by transcriptional responses and that the dynamics of transcripts and enzymes are closely correlated. The developed model can serve as a useful tool for predicting biogeochemical processes in natural environments, either independently or through integration with hydrologic flow simulators.

  12. The care of Filipino juvenile offenders in residential facilities evaluated using the risk-need-responsivity model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Spruit, A.; Wissink, I.B.; Stams, G.J.J.M.

    According to the risk-need-responsivity model of offender, assessment and rehabilitation treatment should target specific factors that are related to re-offending. This study evaluates the residential care of Filipino juvenile offenders using the risk-need-responsivity model. Risk analyses and

  13. Corporate Social Responsibility in the Dynamic Information Age of Inter-Systems Connectivity

    OpenAIRE

    Arvind Ashta

    2009-01-01

    The Information Age, with its new technologies, is accompanied by an accelerating shift in work relations, of which this article focuses on connectivity, interdependence and dynamism. Along with this change in relations, new ethical cultures and responsibilities are evolving at different levels: individual, corporate, governmental, NGO, and global. This article zooms in on theoretical developments related to Corporate Social Responsibility to see how they have evolved to adapt to the new mode...

  14. The nonlinear response of the complex structural system in nuclear reactors using dynamic substructure method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zheng, Z.C.; Xie, G.; Du, Q.H.

    1987-01-01

    Because of the existence of nonlinear characteristics in practical engineering structures, such as large steam turbine-foundation system and offshore platform, it is necessary to predict nonlinear dynamic responses for these very large and complex structural systems subjected extreme load. Due to the limited storage and high executing cost of computers, there are still some difficulties in the analysis for such systems although the traditional finite element methods provide basic available methods to the problems. The dynamic substructure methods, which were developed as a branch of general structural dynamics in the past more than 20 years and have been widely used from aircraft, space vehicles to other mechanical and civil engineering structures, present a powerful method to the analysis of very large structural systems. The key to success is due to the considerable reduction in the number of degrees of freedom while not changing the physical essence of the problems investigated. The dynamic substructure method has been extended to nonlinear system and applicated to the analysis of nonlinear dynamic response of an offshore platform by Z.C. Zheng, et al. (1983, 1985a, b, c). In this paper, the method is presented to analyze dynamic responses of the systems contained intrinsic nonlinearities and with nonlinear attachments and nonlinear supports of nuclear structural systems. The efficiency of the method becomes more clear for nonlinear dynamic problems due to the adoption of iterating processes. For simplicity, the analysis procedure is demonstrated briefly. The generalized substructure method of nonlinear systems is similar to linear systems, only the nonlinear terms are treated as pseudo-forces. Interface coordinates are classified into two categories, the connecting interface coordinates which connect with each other directly in the global system and the linking interface coordinates which link to each other through attachments. (orig./GL)

  15. Dynamic operational risk management at industrial irradiation plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wieland, Patricia; Lustosa, Leonardo J.

    2010-01-01

    Although feasibility studies indicate that industrial irradiation can be sound business, some initiatives fail in few years. In Brazil, the operation of some industrial irradiation plants has been discontinued in spite of the growing export market for tropical fruits like mangoes and papayas, of which Brazil is one of the major producers. This paper discusses the overall aspects of the food irradiation in Brazil, singles out dynamic operation risk management as an important need and provides suggestions for further developments. This research work involves literature review as well as interviews with irradiation industry stake holders in order to identify the ORs and to assess the situation in a logical and integrated way. The results show that public acceptance is not a major issue for the food preservation industry in Brazil. On the contrary, evidences show that there is public support, provided that information on the subject is disseminated among consumers. Need for improvements have been detected in the areas of industrial operational risk management, external relations for export, and regulatory issues, among others to support decision making in establishing and developing industrial food irradiation capabilities to serve Brazilian tropical fruit exports. (author)

  16. Prediction Models for Dynamic Demand Response

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aman, Saima; Frincu, Marc; Chelmis, Charalampos; Noor, Muhammad; Simmhan, Yogesh; Prasanna, Viktor K.

    2015-11-02

    As Smart Grids move closer to dynamic curtailment programs, Demand Response (DR) events will become necessary not only on fixed time intervals and weekdays predetermined by static policies, but also during changing decision periods and weekends to react to real-time demand signals. Unique challenges arise in this context vis-a-vis demand prediction and curtailment estimation and the transformation of such tasks into an automated, efficient dynamic demand response (D2R) process. While existing work has concentrated on increasing the accuracy of prediction models for DR, there is a lack of studies for prediction models for D2R, which we address in this paper. Our first contribution is the formal definition of D2R, and the description of its challenges and requirements. Our second contribution is a feasibility analysis of very-short-term prediction of electricity consumption for D2R over a diverse, large-scale dataset that includes both small residential customers and large buildings. Our third, and major contribution is a set of insights into the predictability of electricity consumption in the context of D2R. Specifically, we focus on prediction models that can operate at a very small data granularity (here 15-min intervals), for both weekdays and weekends - all conditions that characterize scenarios for D2R. We find that short-term time series and simple averaging models used by Independent Service Operators and utilities achieve superior prediction accuracy. We also observe that workdays are more predictable than weekends and holiday. Also, smaller customers have large variation in consumption and are less predictable than larger buildings. Key implications of our findings are that better models are required for small customers and for non-workdays, both of which are critical for D2R. Also, prediction models require just few days’ worth of data indicating that small amounts of

  17. Reconciliation of equipment flexibility effects on piping system dynamic response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Geraets, L.H.

    1987-01-01

    Piping systems are connected to equipment; if the equipment cannot be considered as ''rigid'' relative to excitation frequencies, nozzle response spectra techniques, or equipment modeling techniques are used. If the equipment is considered rigid, a fixed anchor is assumed. However, occasionally after (seismic) dynamic analysis has been completed, tests or detailed equipment dynamic analyses demonstrate that the assumption of ''infinite stiff'' is questionable. This paper reviews several classes of equipment (pumps, vessels, reservoirs, heat exchangers), and the associated (piping stresses, support loads, equipment nozzle allowables). Significant divergences between design and ''as built'' results are shown (for heat exchangers in particular). The paper discusses the reconciliation process performed for a belgian PWR plant through the use of less conservative seismic damping data (Code Case N-411)

  18. TAMING TROJAN HORSES: IDENTIFYING AND MITIGATING CORPORATE SOCIAL RESPONSIBILITY RISKS

    OpenAIRE

    P. P. M. A. R. HEUGENS; N. A. DENTCHEV

    2007-01-01

    textabstractOrganizations are exposed to increasing pressures from their constituents to integrate corporate social responsibility (CSR) principles into their ongoing business practices. But accepting new and potentially open-ended commitments is not a harmless exercise, and companies may well expose themselves to serious risks when embracing such principles. To identify these risks, we conducted two naturalistic studies: one exploratory, the other corroborative. The results show that CSR ado...

  19. Dynamic preload indicators fail to predict fluid responsiveness in open-chest conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Waal, Eric E. C.; Rex, Steffen; Kruitwagen, Cas L. J. J.; Kalkman, Cor J.; Buhre, Wolfgang F.

    Objective: Dynamic preload indicators like pulse pressure variation (PPV) and stroke volume variation (SVV) are increasingly being used for optimizing cardiac preload since they have been demonstrated to predict fluid responsiveness in a variety of perioperative settings. However, in open-chest

  20. Epidemic dynamics on a risk-based evolving social network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antwi, Shadrack; Shaw, Leah

    2013-03-01

    Social network models have been used to study how behavior affects the dynamics of an infection in a population. Motivated by HIV, we consider how a trade-off between benefits and risks of sexual connections determine network structure and disease prevalence. We define a stochastic network model with formation and breaking of links as changes in sexual contacts. Each node has an intrinsic benefit its neighbors derive from connecting to it. Nodes' infection status is not apparent to others, but nodes with more connections (higher degree) are assumed more likely to be infected. The probability to form and break links is determined by a payoff computed from the benefit and degree-dependent risk. The disease is represented by a SI (susceptible-infected) model. We study network and epidemic evolution via Monte Carlo simulation and analytically predict the behavior with a heterogeneous mean field approach. The dependence of network connectivity and infection threshold on parameters is determined, and steady state degree distribution and epidemic levels are obtained. We also study a situation where system-wide infection levels alter perception of risk and cause nodes to adjust their behavior. This is a case of an adaptive network, where node status feeds back to change network geometry.

  1. EFFICIENT QUANTITATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT OF JUMP PROCESSES: IMPLICATIONS FOR FOOD SAFETY

    OpenAIRE

    Nganje, William E.

    1999-01-01

    This paper develops a dynamic framework for efficient quantitative risk assessment from the simplest general risk, combining three parameters (contamination, exposure, and dose response) in a Kataoka safety-first model and a Poisson probability representing the uncertainty effect or jump processes associated with food safety. Analysis indicates that incorporating jump processes in food safety risk assessment provides more efficient cost/risk tradeoffs. Nevertheless, increased margin of safety...

  2. Making sense of climate change risks and responses at the community level: A cultural-political lens

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ainka A. Granderson

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available How to better assess, communicate and respond to risks from climate change at the community level have emerged as key questions within climate risk management. Recent research to address these questions centres largely on psychological factors, exploring how cognition and emotion lead to biases in risk assessment. Yet, making sense of climate change and its responses at the community level demands attention to the cultural and political processes that shape how risk is conceived, prioritized and managed. I review the emergent literature on risk perceptions and responses to climate change using a cultural-political lens. This lens highlights how knowledge, meaning and power are produced and negotiated across multiple stakeholders at the community level. It draws attention to the different ways of constructing climate change risks and suggests an array of responses at the community level. It further illustrates how different constructions of risk intersect with agency and power to shape the capacity for response and collective action. What matters are whose constructions of risk, and whose responses, count in decision-making. I argue for greater engagement with the interpretive social sciences in research, practice and policy. The interpretive social sciences offer theories and tools for capturing and problematising the ways of knowing, sense-making and mobilising around risks from climate change. I also highlight the importance of participatory approaches in incorporating the multiplicity of interests at the community level into climate risk management in fair, transparent and culturally appropriate ways.

  3. On the equivalent static loads approach for dynamic response structural optimization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stolpe, Mathias

    2014-01-01

    The equivalent static loads algorithm is an increasingly popular approach to solve dynamic response structural optimization problems. The algorithm is based on solving a sequence of related static response structural optimization problems with the same objective and constraint functions...... as the original problem. The optimization theoretical foundation of the algorithm is mainly developed in Park and Kang (J Optim Theory Appl 118(1):191–200, 2003). In that article it is shown, for a certain class of problems, that if the equivalent static loads algorithm terminates then the KKT conditions...

  4. Stride dynamics, gait variability and prospective falls risk in active community dwelling older women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paterson, Kade; Hill, Keith; Lythgo, Noel

    2011-02-01

    Measures of walking instability such as stride dynamics and gait variability have been shown to identify future fallers in older adult populations with gait limitations or mobility disorders. This study investigated whether measures of walking instability can predict future fallers (over a prospective 12 month period) in a group of healthy and active older women. Ninety-seven healthy active women aged between 55 and 90 years walked for 7 min around a continuous walking circuit. Gait data recorded by a GAITRite(®) walkway and foot-mounted accelerometers were used to calculate measures of stride dynamics and gait variability. The participant's physical function and balance were assessed. Fall incidence was monitored over the following 12 months. Inter-limb differences (p≤0.04) in stride dynamics were found for fallers (one or more falls) aged over 70 years, and multiple fallers (two or more falls) aged over 55 years, but not in non-fallers or a combined group of single and non-fallers. No group differences were found in the measures of physical function, balance or gait, including variability. Additionally, no gait variable predicted falls. Reduced coordination of inter-limb dynamics was found in active healthy older fallers and multiple fallers despite no difference in other measures of intrinsic falls risk. Evaluating inter-limb dynamics may be a clinically sensitive technique to detect early gait instability and falls risk in high functioning older adults, prior to change in other measures of physical function, balance and gait. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. Field Measurement of Dynamic Compressive Stress Response of Pavement-Subgrade Induced by Moving Heavy-Duty Trucks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lingshi An

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the dynamic compressive stress response of pavement-subgrade induced by moving heavy-duty trucks. In order to study the distribution characteristic of dynamic pressure of pavement-subgrade in more detail, truck loadings, truck speeds, and dynamic pressure distributions at different depths were monitored under twenty-five working conditions on the section of Qiqihar-Nenjiang Highway in Heilongjiang Province, China. The effects of truck loading, truck speed, and depth on dynamic compressive stress response can be concluded as follows: (1 increasing truck loading will increase the dynamic pressure amplitude of subgrade-pavement and dominant frequencies are close to the characteristic frequencies caused by heavy-duty trucks at the speed of 70 km/h; (2 as truck speed increases, the dynamic pressure amplitudes of measuring points have an increasing tendency; the dynamic pressure spectrums are also significantly influenced by truck speed: the higher the truck speed, the wider the spectrum and the higher the dominant frequencies; (3 as depth increases, the dynamic pressure amplitudes of measuring points decrease rapidly. The influence of the front axle decreases gradually until disappearing and the compressive stress superposition phenomenon caused by rear double axles can be found with increasing depth.

  6. Dynamic Response of AA2519 Aluminum Alloy under High Strain Rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olasumboye, Adewale Taiwo

    Like others in the AA2000 series, AA2519 is a heat-treatable Al-Cu alloy. Its excellent ballistic properties and stress corrosion cracking resistance, combined with other properties, qualify it as a prime candidate for armored vehicle and aircraft applications. However, available data on its high strain-rate response remains limited. In this study, AA2519 aluminum alloy was investigated in three different temper conditions: T4, T6, and T8, to determine the effects of heat treatment on the microstructure and dynamic deformation behavior of the material at high strain rates ranging within 1000 ≤ epsilon ≤ 4000 s-1. Split Hopkinson pressure bar integrated with digital image correlation system was used for mechanical response characterization. Optical microscopy and scanning electron microscopy were used to assess the microstructure of the material after following standard metallographic specimen preparation techniques. Results showed heterogeneous deformation in the three temper conditions. It was observed that dynamic behavior in each condition was dependent on strength properties due to the aging type controlling the strengthening precipitates produced and initial microstructure. At 1500 s -1, AA2519-T6 exhibited peak dynamic yield strength and flow stress of 509 and 667 MPa respectively, which are comparable with what were observed in T8 condition at higher rate of 3500 s-1 but AA2519-T4 showed the least strength and flow stress properties. Early stress collapse, dynamic strain aging, and higher susceptibility to shear band formation and fracture were observed in the T6 condition within the selected range of high strain rates. The alloy's general mode of damage evolution was by dispersoid particle nucleation, shearing and cracking.

  7. Loading technique for dynamic response studies of geological materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Butler, R.I.; Forrestal, M.J.

    1979-04-01

    A loading technique to study the dynamic response of tuff was explored. Loading is provided by electrically exploding etched copper mesh patterns with current from a capacitor discharge. Pressure pulses with peak pressures up to 1.25 kbar and 0.10 to 0.20 ms durations were measured with a pressure bar. The upper value of peak pressure was limited by the strength of the experimental apparatus, and higher pressure generation is possible with a redesign of test hardware. 6 figures, 2 tables

  8. Dynamic sensorimotor planning during long-term sequence learning: the role of variability, response chunking and planning errors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verstynen, Timothy; Phillips, Jeff; Braun, Emily; Workman, Brett; Schunn, Christian; Schneider, Walter

    2012-01-01

    Many everyday skills are learned by binding otherwise independent actions into a unified sequence of responses across days or weeks of practice. Here we looked at how the dynamics of action planning and response binding change across such long timescales. Subjects (N = 23) were trained on a bimanual version of the serial reaction time task (32-item sequence) for two weeks (10 days total). Response times and accuracy both showed improvement with time, but appeared to be learned at different rates. Changes in response speed across training were associated with dynamic changes in response time variability, with faster learners expanding their variability during the early training days and then contracting response variability late in training. Using a novel measure of response chunking, we found that individual responses became temporally correlated across trials and asymptoted to set sizes of approximately 7 bound responses at the end of the first week of training. Finally, we used a state-space model of the response planning process to look at how predictive (i.e., response anticipation) and error-corrective (i.e., post-error slowing) processes correlated with learning rates for speed, accuracy and chunking. This analysis yielded non-monotonic association patterns between the state-space model parameters and learning rates, suggesting that different parts of the response planning process are relevant at different stages of long-term learning. These findings highlight the dynamic modulation of response speed, variability, accuracy and chunking as multiple movements become bound together into a larger set of responses during sequence learning.

  9. A Two-Step Hybrid Approach for Modeling the Nonlinear Dynamic Response of Piezoelectric Energy Harvesters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudio Maruccio

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available An effective hybrid computational framework is described here in order to assess the nonlinear dynamic response of piezoelectric energy harvesting devices. The proposed strategy basically consists of two steps. First, fully coupled multiphysics finite element (FE analyses are performed to evaluate the nonlinear static response of the device. An enhanced reduced-order model is then derived, where the global dynamic response is formulated in the state-space using lumped coefficients enriched with the information derived from the FE simulations. The electromechanical response of piezoelectric beams under forced vibrations is studied by means of the proposed approach, which is also validated by comparing numerical predictions with some experimental results. Such numerical and experimental investigations have been carried out with the main aim of studying the influence of material and geometrical parameters on the global nonlinear response. The advantage of the presented approach is that the overall computational and experimental efforts are significantly reduced while preserving a satisfactory accuracy in the assessment of the global behavior.

  10. ANALYSIS OF SUPPLY RESPONSE AND PRICE RISK ON RICE PRODUCTION IN NIGERIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Opeyemi Eyitayo Ayinde

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available  Nigeria, like most African countries, has engaged in agricultural liberalization since 1986 in the hope that reforms emphasizing price incentives will encourage producers to respond. Thus far, the reforms seem to have introduced greater uncertainty into the market given increasing rates of price volatility. This study amongst other things therefore seeks to determine and model the responsiveness of rice supply to price risk in Nigeria. Statistical information on domestic and imported quantities of rice was obtained for 41 years (1970 to 2011 from various sources, such as the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO database, Federal Ministry of Agriculture statistical bulletins, Central Bank of Nigeria statistical bulletins and National Bureau of Statistic (NBS. Data were analyzed using equilibrium output supply function, co-integration models, and vector autoregressive distributed lag model. Rice importation was statistically significant and changes in output were also responsive to changes in price. The results indicate that producers are more responsive not only to price and non-price factor but also to price risk and exchange rate. It is therefore imperative to reduce the effects of price risk as to increase the response of producer to supply by bridging the gap in production

  11. Numerical analysis of dynamic response of vehicle–bridge coupled system on long-span continuous girder bridge

    OpenAIRE

    An, Lipeng; Li, Dejian; Yu, Peng; Yuan, Peng

    2016-01-01

    To systematically study the vehicle–bridge coupled dynamic response and its change rule with different parameters, a vehicle model with seven degrees of freedom was built and the total potential energy of vehicle space vibration system was deduced. Considering the stimulation of road roughness, the dynamic response equation of vehicle–bridge coupled system was established in accordance with the elastic system principle of total potential energy with stationary value and the “set-in-right-posi...

  12. A carboxylesterase, Esterase-6, modulates sensory physiological and behavioral response dynamics to pheromone in Drosophila

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chertemps Thomas

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Insects respond to the spatial and temporal dynamics of a pheromone plume, which implies not only a strong response to 'odor on', but also to 'odor off'. This requires mechanisms geared toward a fast signal termination. Several mechanisms may contribute to signal termination, among which odorant-degrading enzymes. These enzymes putatively play a role in signal dynamics by a rapid inactivation of odorants in the vicinity of the sensory receptors, although direct in vivo experimental evidences are lacking. Here we verified the role of an extracellular carboxylesterase, esterase-6 (Est-6, in the sensory physiological and behavioral dynamics of Drosophila melanogaster response to its pheromone, cis-vaccenyl acetate (cVA. Est-6 was previously linked to post-mating effects in the reproductive system of females. As Est-6 is also known to hydrolyze cVA in vitro and is expressed in the main olfactory organ, the antenna, we tested here its role in olfaction as a putative odorant-degrading enzyme. Results We first confirm that Est-6 is highly expressed in olfactory sensilla, including cVA-sensitive sensilla, and we show that expression is likely associated with non-neuronal cells. Our electrophysiological approaches show that the dynamics of olfactory receptor neuron (ORN responses is strongly influenced by Est-6, as in Est-6° null mutants (lacking the Est-6 gene cVA-sensitive ORN showed increased firing rate and prolonged activity in response to cVA. Est-6° mutant males had a lower threshold of behavioral response to cVA, as revealed by the analysis of two cVA-induced behaviors. In particular, mutant males exhibited a strong decrease of male-male courtship, in association with a delay in courtship initiation. Conclusions Our study presents evidence that Est-6 plays a role in the physiological and behavioral dynamics of sex pheromone response in Drosophila males and supports a role of Est-6 as an odorant-degrading enzyme (ODE in male

  13. Modeling the dynamic response of pressures in a distributed helium refrigeration system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brubaker, J.C.

    1997-12-01

    A mathematical model is created of the dynamic response of pressures caused by flow inputs to an existing distributed helium refrigeration system. The dynamic system studied consists of the suction and discharge pressure headers and compressor portions of the refrigeration system used to cool the superconducting magnets of the Tevatron accelerator at the Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory. The modeling method involves identifying the system from data recorded during a series of controlled tests, with effort made to detect locational differences in pressure response around the four mile accelerator circumference. A review of the fluid mechanics associated with the system indicates linear time invariant models are suitable for the identification, particularly since the governing equations of one dimensional fluid flow are approximated by linear differential equations. An outline of the experimental design and the data acquisition system are given, followed by a detailed description of the modeling, which utilized the Matlab programming language and associated System Identification Toolbox. Two representations of the system are presented. One, a black box model, provides a multi-input, multi-output description assembled from the results of single input step function testing. This description indicates definite variation in pressure response with distance from the flow input location, and also suggests subtle differences in response with the input location itself. A second system representation is proposed which details the relation between continuous flow changes and pressure response, and provides explanation of a previously unappreciated pressure feedback internal to the system

  14. Modeling the dynamic response of pressures in a distributed helium refrigeration system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brubaker, John Carl [Illinois Inst. of Technology, Chicago, IL (United States)

    1997-12-01

    A mathematical model is created of the dynamic response of pressures caused by flow inputs to an existing distributed helium refrigeration system. The dynamic system studied consists of the suction and discharge pressure headers and compressor portions of the refrigeration system used to cool the superconducting magnets of the Tevatron accelerator at the Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory. The modeling method involves identifying the system from data recorded during a series of controlled tests, with effort made to detect locational differences in pressure response around the four mile accelerator circumference. A review of the fluid mechanics associated with the system indicates linear time invariant models are suitable for the identification, particularly since the governing equations of one dimensional fluid flow are approximated by linear differential equations. An outline of the experimental design and the data acquisition system are given, followed by a detailed description of the modeling, which utilized the Matlab programming language and associated System Identification Toolbox. Two representations of the system are presented. One, a black box model, provides a multi-input, multi-output description assembled from the results of single input step function testing. This description indicates definite variation in pressure response with distance from the flow input location, and also suggests subtle differences in response with the input location itself. A second system representation is proposed which details the relation between continuous flow changes and pressure response, and provides explanation of a previously unappreciated pressure feedback internal to the system.

  15. Dynamic buckling and nonlinear response of FBR main vessels under earthquake loading

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hagiwara, Yutaka; Kawamoto, Yoji; Nakagawa, Masaki; Akiyama, Hiroshi.

    1991-01-01

    Pseudo-dynamic tests of cylindrical shells under high temperature were performed in order to study elasto-plastic shear-bending buckling and the nonlinear response of FBR main vessels under earthquake loading. The test results showed a response reduction effect due to pre-buckling plasticity, and a large seismic margin due to post-buckling energy absorption of the cylinders. A simple expression of the response reduction effect was proposed, as a contribution to the safe and effective seismic design of FBRs. Two methods for seismic margin evaluation were also proposed, and it was shown that appropriate seismic margins can be ensured, when the response reduction effect is incorporated into the seismic design. (author)

  16. Summary of calculations of dynamic response characteristics and design stress of the 1/5 scale PSE torus

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arthur, D.

    1977-01-01

    The Lawrence Livermore Laboratory is currently involved in a 1/5 scale testing program on the Mark I BWR pressure suppression system. A key element of the test setup is a pressure vessel that is a 90 0 sector of a torus. Proper performance of the 90 0 torus depends on its structural integrity and structural dynamic characteristics. It must sustain the internal pressurization of the planned tests, and its dynamic response to the transient test loads should be minimal. If the structural vibrations are too great, interpretation of important load cell and pressure transducer data will be difficult. The purpose of the report is to bring together under one cover calculations pertaining to the structural dynamic characteristics and structural integrity of 90 0 torus. The report is divided into the following sections: (1) system description in which the torus and associated hardware are briefly described; (2) structural dynamics in which calculations of natural frequency and dynamic response are presented; and (3) structural integrity in which stress calculations for design purposes are presented; and an appendix which contains an LLL internal report comparing the expected load cell response for a three and four-point supported torus

  17. A dynamic approach merging network theory and credit risk techniques to assess systemic risk in financial networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petrone, Daniele; Latora, Vito

    2018-04-03

    The interconnectedness of financial institutions affects instability and credit crises. To quantify systemic risk we introduce here the PD model, a dynamic model that combines credit risk techniques with a contagion mechanism on the network of exposures among banks. A potential loss distribution is obtained through a multi-period Monte Carlo simulation that considers the probability of default (PD) of the banks and their tendency of defaulting in the same time interval. A contagion process increases the PD of banks exposed toward distressed counterparties. The systemic risk is measured by statistics of the loss distribution, while the contribution of each node is quantified by the new measures PDRank and PDImpact. We illustrate how the model works on the network of the European Global Systemically Important Banks. For a certain range of the banks' capital and of their assets volatility, our results reveal the emergence of a strong contagion regime where lower default correlation between banks corresponds to higher losses. This is the opposite of the diversification benefits postulated by standard credit risk models used by banks and regulators who could therefore underestimate the capital needed to overcome a period of crisis, thereby contributing to the financial system instability.

  18. Paradoxes of risk management: Social responsibility and self-exclusion in Dutch casinos

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kingma, S.F.

    2015-01-01

    This article deals with the basic contradictions of risk management and responsibility regarding problem gambling and self-exclusions, and draws special attention to the role knowledge production and science play in the construction and evaluation of gambling risks. This remarkable case of corporate

  19. Effects of dynamic synapses on noise-delayed response latency of a single neuron

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uzuntarla, M.; Ozer, M.; Ileri, U.; Calim, A.; Torres, J. J.

    2015-12-01

    The noise-delayed decay (NDD) phenomenon emerges when the first-spike latency of a periodically forced stochastic neuron exhibits a maximum for a particular range of noise intensity. Here, we investigate the latency response dynamics of a single Hodgkin-Huxley neuron that is subject to both a suprathreshold periodic stimulus and a background activity arriving through dynamic synapses. We study the first-spike latency response as a function of the presynaptic firing rate f . This constitutes a more realistic scenario than previous works, since f provides a suitable biophysically realistic parameter to control the level of activity in actual neural systems. We first report on the emergence of classical NDD behavior as a function of f for the limit of static synapses. Second, we show that when short-term depression and facilitation mechanisms are included at the synapses, different NDD features can be found due to their modulatory effect on synaptic current fluctuations. For example, an intriguing double NDD (DNDD) behavior occurs for different sets of relevant synaptic parameters. Moreover, depending on the balance between synaptic depression and synaptic facilitation, single NDD or DNDD can prevail, in such a way that synaptic facilitation favors the emergence of DNDD whereas synaptic depression favors the existence of single NDD. Here we report the existence of the DNDD effect in the response latency dynamics of a neuron.

  20. Developing a Game Interface to Assess Risk Perception with Respect to Two Key Dimensions of Risk (Frequency and Severity) in Contexts Where Risks Are Elevated from Their Accepted, "Typical" Values.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodman, William M; Ma, Zhenfeng; Andrade, Angie

    2015-06-01

    This four-stage study culminated in a game interface designed to calibrate people's perceptions of net risk (combining frequency and severity), in contexts where risks are elevated from their accepted, "typical" values, as when avalanche threats elevate the risks of "skiing" above levels skiers normally accept. Risk prompts are displayed dynamically, in naturalistic language, and not, for example, as static displays of dollar amounts or probabilities. Individual differences are measured. In Stage 1 (pilot), focus groups (n=9) piloted procedures, visual prompts, and examples of contexts where risks elevated from the "usual," for use in upcoming stages. In Stage 2 (exploratory), participants (primarily students; n=119; mean age, 20.1 years; 64 percent male) were assigned to risk contexts, answered demographic and risk-history questions, and then matched risk-description prompts to perceived "appropriate" levels along an ordinal risk scale. Descriptive measures and graphs showed response distributions; chi-squared analyses compared responses for different demographics. In Stage 3 (manipulating "cards"), participants (n=80; mean age, 37 years; 60 percent male) matched naturalistic risk prompts with ordinal risk positions. Regressions compared cards' placements with their "expected" (per exploratory Stage 2) placements. In Stage 4, the interface was coded in the Unity(®) (implemented at Business and IT Capstone, University of Ontario Institute of Technology, Oshawa, ON, Canada) development environment. In Stage 1, ambiguities in draft wordings/displays for Stage 2 were identified and corrected. Three risk contexts emerged: traffic/hidden intersection; skiing/avalanche; and swimming/drowning. In Stage 2, for traffic and skiing contexts, responses relating ordinal risk categories to realistic examples were observed to cluster around values potentially usable as markers. No associations appeared with demographic variables. In Stage 3, actual and "expected" ordinal-risk

  1. A framework to integrate software behavior into dynamic probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhu Dongfeng; Mosleh, Ali; Smidts, Carol

    2007-01-01

    Software plays an increasingly important role in modern safety-critical systems. Although, research has been done to integrate software into the classical probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) framework, current PRA practice overwhelmingly neglects the contribution of software to system risk. Dynamic probabilistic risk assessment (DPRA) is considered to be the next generation of PRA techniques. DPRA is a set of methods and techniques in which simulation models that represent the behavior of the elements of a system are exercised in order to identify risks and vulnerabilities of the system. The fact remains, however, that modeling software for use in the DPRA framework is also quite complex and very little has been done to address the question directly and comprehensively. This paper develops a methodology to integrate software contributions in the DPRA environment. The framework includes a software representation, and an approach to incorporate the software representation into the DPRA environment SimPRA. The software representation is based on multi-level objects and the paper also proposes a framework to simulate the multi-level objects in the simulation-based DPRA environment. This is a new methodology to address the state explosion problem in the DPRA environment. This study is the first systematic effort to integrate software risk contributions into DPRA environments

  2. Migration and Land Rental as Risk Response in Rural China

    OpenAIRE

    Ward, Patrick S.; Shively, Gerald E.

    2011-01-01

    Households in developing countries take various actions to smooth income or consumption as a means of managing or responding to risk. One of the principal means of smoothing income is through the diversification of income sources, including non-farm employment and rural-urban migration. An important consumption smoothing strategy involves the accumulation and depletion of assets. We examine migration and land rental market participation as responses to risk in rural China. Using a longitudina...

  3. Static contribution of the higher modes in the dynamic response of structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barbosa, H.J.C.

    1982-03-01

    In the dynamic response of structures by the modal superposition method usually only the lower modes are taken into account and a procedure that could estimate the contribution due to the higher modes without calculating them would be useful. The technique which consists of assuming that the higher modes respond statically is discussed here. Structures subjected to support motion which are analysed by response spectra techniques are considered and some numerical results are presented. (Author) [pt

  4. Mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) dynamics determine cell fate in the yeast mating response.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yang; Roberts, Julie; AkhavanAghdam, Zohreh; Hao, Nan

    2017-12-15

    In the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae , the exposure to mating pheromone activates a prototypic mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) cascade and triggers a dose-dependent differentiation response. Whereas a high pheromone dose induces growth arrest and formation of a shmoo-like morphology in yeast cells, lower pheromone doses elicit elongated cell growth. Previous population-level analysis has revealed that the MAPK Fus3 plays an important role in mediating this differentiation switch. To further investigate how Fus3 controls the fate decision process at the single-cell level, we developed a specific translocation-based reporter for monitoring Fus3 activity in individual live cells. Using this reporter, we observed strikingly different dynamic patterns of Fus3 activation in single cells differentiated into distinct fates. Cells committed to growth arrest and shmoo formation exhibited sustained Fus3 activation. In contrast, most cells undergoing elongated growth showed either a delayed gradual increase or pulsatile dynamics of Fus3 activity. Furthermore, we found that chemically perturbing Fus3 dynamics with a specific inhibitor could effectively redirect the mating differentiation, confirming the causative role of Fus3 dynamics in driving cell fate decisions. MAPKs mediate proliferation and differentiation signals in mammals and are therapeutic targets in many cancers. Our results highlight the importance of MAPK dynamics in regulating single-cell responses and open up the possibility that MAPK signaling dynamics could be a pharmacological target in therapeutic interventions. © 2017 by The American Society for Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, Inc.

  5. Dynamic response of sand particles impacted by a rigid spherical object

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Youplao

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available A method for measuring the dynamic impact responses that acting on a spherical object while dropping and colliding with dried sand, such as the velocity, displacement, acceleration, and resultant force, is presented and discussed. In the experiment, a Michelson-type laser interferometer is employed to obtain the velocity of the spherical stainless steel object. Then the obtained time velocity profile is used to calculate the acceleration, the displacement, and the inertial force acting on the observed sand particles. Furthermore, a high-speed camera is employed to observe the behavior of the sand during the collision. From the experimental results with the sampling interval for frequencies calculation of 1 ms, the combined standard uncertainty in the instantaneous value of the impact force acts on the observed object is obtained and approximated to 0.49 N, which is related to a corresponding 4.07% of the maximum value at 12.05 N of the impact force. Keywords: Sand particle, Collision response, Dynamic force, Inertial mass, Optical interferometer

  6. Elasto/visco-plastic dynamic response of multi-layered shells of revolution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takezono, S.; Tao, K.; Taguchi, T.

    1989-01-01

    Many investigations of the elasto/visco-plastic dynamic response of shells have been conducted. These investigations, however, have been mostly concerned with the case of single-layered shells, and few studies on multi-layered shells have been reported in spite of their importance in engineering. In this paper, the authors study the elasto/visco-plastic dynamic response of the multi-layered shells of revolution subjected to impulsive loads. The equations of motion and the relations between the strains and displacements are derived by extending Sanders' theory for elastic thin shells. As the constitutive relation, Hooke's law is used in the linear elastic range, and the elasto/visco-plastic equations are employed in the plastic range. The criterion for yielding used in the analysis is the von Mises yield theory. In the numerical analysis of the fundamental equations for incremental values an usual finite difference form is employed for the spatial derivatives and the inertia terms are treated with the backward difference formula. The solutions are obtained by summation of the incremental values

  7. Demand response with locational dynamic pricing to support the integration of renewables

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dupont, B.; De Jonghe, C.; Olmos, L.; Belmans, R.

    2014-01-01

    Electricity production from centralised and decentralised renewable energy resources in Europe is gaining significance, resulting in operational challenges in the electricity system. Although these challenges add to the locational and time dependency of the underlying cost of operating the system, this variability in time and location is not reflected in residential tariff schemes. Consequently, residential users are not incentivised to react to varying system conditions and to help the integration of renewable energy resources. Therefore, this paper provides a theoretical framework for designing a locational dynamic pricing scheme. This can be used to assess existing tariff structures for consumption and injection, and can serve as a theoretical background for developing new tariff schemes. Starting from the underlying costs, this paper shows that the potential for locational dynamic pricing depends on the locational and time dependency of its cost drivers. When converting costs into tariffs, the tariff design should be determined. This includes the advance notice of sending tariffs to users, and the length of price blocks and price patterns. This tariff design should find a balance between tariff principles related to costs, practicality and social acceptability on the one hand, and the resulting demand response incentive on the other. - Highlights: • The integration of renewables affects the locational and time dependency of costs. • Locational dynamic pricing reflects cost variability and allows demand response. • A theoretical framework for designing and assessing tariff schemes is proposed. • Tariff variability depends on the locational and time dependency of its cost drivers. • The tariff design should consider the resulting demand response incentive

  8. Dynamic Response and Failure Mechanism of Brittle Rocks Under Combined Compression-Shear Loading Experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Yuan; Dai, Feng

    2018-03-01

    A novel method is developed for characterizing the mechanical response and failure mechanism of brittle rocks under dynamic compression-shear loading: an inclined cylinder specimen using a modified split Hopkinson pressure bar (SHPB) system. With the specimen axis inclining to the loading direction of SHPB, a shear component can be introduced into the specimen. Both static and dynamic experiments are conducted on sandstone specimens. Given carefully pulse shaping, the dynamic equilibrium of the inclined specimens can be satisfied, and thus the quasi-static data reduction is employed. The normal and shear stress-strain relationships of specimens are subsequently established. The progressive failure process of the specimen illustrated via high-speed photographs manifests a mixed failure mode accommodating both the shear-dominated failure and the localized tensile damage. The elastic and shear moduli exhibit certain loading-path dependence under quasi-static loading but loading-path insensitivity under high loading rates. Loading rate dependence is evidently demonstrated through the failure characteristics involving fragmentation, compression and shear strength and failure surfaces based on Drucker-Prager criterion. Our proposed method is convenient and reliable to study the dynamic response and failure mechanism of rocks under combined compression-shear loading.

  9. Gait dynamics to optimize fall risk assessment in geriatric patients admitted to an outpatient diagnostic clinic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kikkert, Lisette H J; de Groot, Maartje H; van Campen, Jos P; Beijnen, Jos H; Hortobágyi, Tibor; Vuillerme, Nicolas; Lamoth, Claudine C J

    2017-01-01

    Fall prediction in geriatric patients remains challenging because the increased fall risk involves multiple, interrelated factors caused by natural aging and/or pathology. Therefore, we used a multi-factorial statistical approach to model categories of modifiable fall risk factors among geriatric patients to identify fallers with highest sensitivity and specificity with a focus on gait performance. Patients (n = 61, age = 79; 41% fallers) underwent extensive screening in three categories: (1) patient characteristics (e.g., handgrip strength, medication use, osteoporosis-related factors) (2) cognitive function (global cognition, memory, executive function), and (3) gait performance (speed-related and dynamic outcomes assessed by tri-axial trunk accelerometry). Falls were registered prospectively (mean follow-up 8.6 months) and one year retrospectively. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) on 11 gait variables was performed to determine underlying gait properties. Three fall-classification models were then built using Partial Least Squares-Discriminant Analysis (PLS-DA), with separate and combined analyses of the fall risk factors. PCA identified 'pace', 'variability', and 'coordination' as key properties of gait. The best PLS-DA model produced a fall classification accuracy of AUC = 0.93. The specificity of the model using patient characteristics was 60% but reached 80% when cognitive and gait outcomes were added. The inclusion of cognition and gait dynamics in fall classification models reduced misclassification. We therefore recommend assessing geriatric patients' fall risk using a multi-factorial approach that incorporates patient characteristics, cognition, and gait dynamics.

  10. Gait dynamics to optimize fall risk assessment in geriatric patients admitted to an outpatient diagnostic clinic.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lisette H J Kikkert

    Full Text Available Fall prediction in geriatric patients remains challenging because the increased fall risk involves multiple, interrelated factors caused by natural aging and/or pathology. Therefore, we used a multi-factorial statistical approach to model categories of modifiable fall risk factors among geriatric patients to identify fallers with highest sensitivity and specificity with a focus on gait performance. Patients (n = 61, age = 79; 41% fallers underwent extensive screening in three categories: (1 patient characteristics (e.g., handgrip strength, medication use, osteoporosis-related factors (2 cognitive function (global cognition, memory, executive function, and (3 gait performance (speed-related and dynamic outcomes assessed by tri-axial trunk accelerometry. Falls were registered prospectively (mean follow-up 8.6 months and one year retrospectively. Principal Component Analysis (PCA on 11 gait variables was performed to determine underlying gait properties. Three fall-classification models were then built using Partial Least Squares-Discriminant Analysis (PLS-DA, with separate and combined analyses of the fall risk factors. PCA identified 'pace', 'variability', and 'coordination' as key properties of gait. The best PLS-DA model produced a fall classification accuracy of AUC = 0.93. The specificity of the model using patient characteristics was 60% but reached 80% when cognitive and gait outcomes were added. The inclusion of cognition and gait dynamics in fall classification models reduced misclassification. We therefore recommend assessing geriatric patients' fall risk using a multi-factorial approach that incorporates patient characteristics, cognition, and gait dynamics.

  11. Dynamic Assessment and Response to Intervention: Two Sides of One Coin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grigorenko, Elena L.

    2009-01-01

    This article compares and contrasts the main features of dynamic testing and assessment (DT/A) and response to intervention (RTI). The comparison is carried out along the following lines: (a) historical and empirical roots of both concepts, (b) premises underlying DT/A and RTI, (c) terms used in these concepts, (d) use of these concepts, (e)…

  12. Dynamic Response Analysis of Linear Pulse Motor with Closed Loop Control

    OpenAIRE

    山本, 行雄; 山田, 一

    1989-01-01

    A linear pulse motor can translate digital signals into linear positions without a gear system. It is important to predict a dynamic response in order to the motor that has the good performance. In this report the maximum pulse rate and the maximum speed on the linear pulse motor are obtained by using the sampling theory.

  13. Dynamical mechanisms for sensitive response of aperiodic firing cells to external stimulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xie Yong; Xu Jianxue; Hu Sanjue; Kang Yanmei; Yang Hongjun; Duan Yubin

    2004-01-01

    An interesting phenomenon that aperiodic firing neurons have a higher sensitivity to drugs than periodic firing neurons have been reported for the chronically compressed dorsal root ganglion neurons in rats. In this study, the dynamical mechanisms for such a phenomenon are uncovered from the viewpoint of dynamical systems theory. We use the Rose-Hindmarsh neuron model to illustrate our opinions. Periodic orbit theory is introduced to characterize the dynamical behavior of aperiodic firing neurons. It is considered that bifurcations, crises and sensitive dependence of chaotic motions on control parameters can be the underlying mechanisms. And then, a similar analysis is applied to the modified Chay model describing the firing behavior of pancreatic beta cells. The same dynamical mechanisms can be obtained underlying that aperiodic firing cells are more sensitive to external stimulation than periodic firing ones. As a result, we conjecture that sensitive response of aperiodic firing cells to external stimulation is a universal property of excitable cells

  14. Dynamic response of wind turbine towers in warm permafrost

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Benjamin Still; ZhaoHui Joey Yang; Simon Evans; FuJun Niu

    2014-01-01

    Wind is a great source of renewable energy in western Alaska. Consistent winds blow across the barren tundra underlain by warm permafrost in the winter season, when the energy demand is the highest. Foundation engineering in warm permafrost has always been a challenge in wind energy development. Degrading warm permafrost poses engineering issues to design, construction, and operation of wind turbines. This paper describes the foundation design of a wind turbine built in western Alaska. It presents a sys-tem for response monitoring and load assessment, and data collected from September 2013 to March 2014. The dynamic proper-ties are assessed based on the monitoring data, and seasonal changes in the dynamic properties of the turbine tower-foundation system and likely resonance between the spinning blades and the tower structure are discussed. These analyses of a wind turbine in warm permafrost are valuable for designing or retrofitting of foundations in warm permafrost.

  15. Ultra-Stretchable Ionic Nanocomposites: From Dynamic Bonding to Multi-Responsive Behavior

    KAUST Repository

    Odent, Jeremy

    2017-06-12

    Although multi-responsive materials have the potential to revolutionize a wide spectrum of technologies, the design of systems that combine a range of responses to a variety of different external changes without the associated property trade-offs has remained elusive. We herein demonstrate a new family of multi-responsive nanocomposites that leverage the dynamic and reversible nature of electrostatic interactions present in ionic systems with the reinforcement ability of nanoparticles in nanocomposites. This new design leads to a unique property profile that combines simultaneous improvements in stiffness, toughness and extensibility. In addition to their exceptional stretchability, the new, ionic nanocomposites exhibit unique strain-dependent behavior (i.e. the deformation increases with increasing strain rate) and return to normal state after deformation including shape-memory and scratching recovery.

  16. Ultra-Stretchable Ionic Nanocomposites: From Dynamic Bonding to Multi-Responsive Behavior

    KAUST Repository

    Odent, Jeremy; Raquez, Jean-Marie; Dubois, Philippe; Giannelis, Emmanuel P.

    2017-01-01

    Although multi-responsive materials have the potential to revolutionize a wide spectrum of technologies, the design of systems that combine a range of responses to a variety of different external changes without the associated property trade-offs has remained elusive. We herein demonstrate a new family of multi-responsive nanocomposites that leverage the dynamic and reversible nature of electrostatic interactions present in ionic systems with the reinforcement ability of nanoparticles in nanocomposites. This new design leads to a unique property profile that combines simultaneous improvements in stiffness, toughness and extensibility. In addition to their exceptional stretchability, the new, ionic nanocomposites exhibit unique strain-dependent behavior (i.e. the deformation increases with increasing strain rate) and return to normal state after deformation including shape-memory and scratching recovery.

  17. Global genetic response in a cancer cell: self-organized coherent expression dynamics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Masa Tsuchiya

    Full Text Available Understanding the basic mechanism of the spatio-temporal self-control of genome-wide gene expression engaged with the complex epigenetic molecular assembly is one of major challenges in current biological science. In this study, the genome-wide dynamical profile of gene expression was analyzed for MCF-7 breast cancer cells induced by two distinct ErbB receptor ligands: epidermal growth factor (EGF and heregulin (HRG, which drive cell proliferation and differentiation, respectively. We focused our attention to elucidate how global genetic responses emerge and to decipher what is an underlying principle for dynamic self-control of genome-wide gene expression. The whole mRNA expression was classified into about a hundred groups according to the root mean square fluctuation (rmsf. These expression groups showed characteristic time-dependent correlations, indicating the existence of collective behaviors on the ensemble of genes with respect to mRNA expression and also to temporal changes in expression. All-or-none responses were observed for HRG and EGF (biphasic statistics at around 10-20 min. The emergence of time-dependent collective behaviors of expression occurred through bifurcation of a coherent expression state (CES. In the ensemble of mRNA expression, the self-organized CESs reveals distinct characteristic expression domains for biphasic statistics, which exhibits notably the presence of criticality in the expression profile as a route for genomic transition. In time-dependent changes in the expression domains, the dynamics of CES reveals that the temporal development of the characteristic domains is characterized as autonomous bistable switch, which exhibits dynamic criticality (the temporal development of criticality in the genome-wide coherent expression dynamics. It is expected that elucidation of the biophysical origin for such critical behavior sheds light on the underlying mechanism of the control of whole genome.

  18. Conceptual Design Optimization of an Augmented Stability Aircraft Incorporating Dynamic Response and Actuator Constraints

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welstead, Jason; Crouse, Gilbert L., Jr.

    2014-01-01

    Empirical sizing guidelines such as tail volume coefficients have long been used in the early aircraft design phases for sizing stabilizers, resulting in conservatively stable aircraft. While successful, this results in increased empty weight, reduced performance, and greater procurement and operational cost relative to an aircraft with optimally sized surfaces. Including flight dynamics in the conceptual design process allows the design to move away from empirical methods while implementing modern control techniques. A challenge of flight dynamics and control is the numerous design variables, which are changing fluidly throughout the conceptual design process, required to evaluate the system response to some disturbance. This research focuses on addressing that challenge not by implementing higher order tools, such as computational fluid dynamics, but instead by linking the lower order tools typically used within the conceptual design process so each discipline feeds into the other. In thisresearch, flight dynamics and control was incorporated into the conceptual design process along with the traditional disciplines of vehicle sizing, weight estimation, aerodynamics, and performance. For the controller, a linear quadratic regulator structure with constant gains has been specified to reduce the user input. Coupling all the disciplines in the conceptual design phase allows the aircraft designer to explore larger design spaces where stabilizers are sized according to dynamic response constraints rather than historical static margin and volume coefficient guidelines.

  19. Multicompartment Drug Release System for Dynamic Modulation of Tissue Responses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, Aaron H; Mahal, Rajwant S; Udell, Jillian; Wu, Michelle; Kyriakides, Themis R

    2017-10-01

    Pharmacological modulation of responses to injury is complicated by the need to deliver multiple drugs with spatiotemporal resolution. Here, a novel controlled delivery system containing three separate compartments with each releasing its contents over different timescales is fabricated. Core-shell electrospun fibers create two of the compartments in the system, while electrosprayed spheres create the third. Utility is demonstrated by targeting the foreign body response to implants because it is a dynamic process resulting in implant failure. Sequential delivery of a drug targeting nuclear factor-κB (NF-κB) and an antifibrotic is characterized in in vitro experiments. Specifically, macrophage fusion and p65 nuclear translocation in the presence of releasate or with macrophages cultured on the surfaces of the constructs are evaluated. In addition, releasate from pirfenidone scaffolds is shown to reduce transforming growth factor-β (TGF-β)-induced pSMAD3 nuclear localization in fibroblasts. In vivo, drug eluting constructs successfully mitigate macrophage fusion at one week and fibrotic encapsulation in a dose-dependent manner at four weeks, demonstrating effective release of both drugs over different timescales. Future studies can employ this system to improve and prolong implant lifetimes, or load it with other drugs to modulate other dynamic processes. © 2017 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  20. Multi-Level Risk Factors for Suicidal Ideation Among at-Risk Adolescent Females: The Role of Hypothalamic-Pituitary-Adrenal Axis Responses to Stress

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calhoun, Casey D.; Hastings, Paul D.; Rudolph, Karen D.; Nock, Matthew K.; Prinstein, Mitchell J.

    2014-01-01

    Adopting a multi-level approach, this study examined risk factors for adolescent suicidal ideation, with specific attention to (a) hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis stress responses and (b) the interplay between HPA-axis and other risk factors from multiple domains (i.e., psychological, interpersonal and biological). Participants were 138 adolescent females (Mage=14.13 years, SD=1.40) at risk for suicidal behaviors. At baseline, lifetime suicidal ideation and a number of risk factors were assessed (i.e., depressive symptoms, impulsiveness, pubertal status and peer stress). Participants were exposed to a psychosocial stress task and HPA-axis responses were assessed by measuring cortisol levels pre- and post-stressor. At 3 months post-baseline, suicidal ideation again was assessed. Using group-based trajectory modeling, three groups of cortisol stress-response patterns were identified (i.e., hyporesponsive, normative, and hyperresponsive). As compared to females in the normative and hyporesponsive group, females in the hyperresponsive group were more likely to report a lifetime history of suicidal ideation at baseline, above and beyond the effects of the other predictors. Moreover, as compared to females in the normative group, females in the hyperresponsive group were at increased risk for reporting suicidal ideation 3 months later, after controlling for prior ideation. No interactions between cortisol group and the other risk factors were significant, with the exception of a non-significant trend between impulsiveness and cortisol group on lifetime suicidal ideation. Findings highlight the importance of HPA-axis responses to acute stressors as a risk factor for suicidal ideation among adolescents. PMID:24958308

  1. Risk Neutral Option Pricing With Neither Dynamic Hedging nor Complete Markets

    OpenAIRE

    Nassim N. Taleb

    2014-01-01

    Proof that under simple assumptions, such as constraints of Put-Call Parity, the probability measure for the valuation of a European option has the mean derived from the forward price which can, but does not have to be the risk-neutral one, under any general probability distribution, bypassing the Black-Scholes-Merton dynamic hedging argument, and without the requirement of complete markets and other strong assumptions. We confirm that the heuristics used by traders for centuries are both mor...

  2. Dynamical response of Mathieu–Duffing oscillator with fractional-order delayed feedback

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wen, Shao-Fang; Shen, Yong-Jun; Yang, Shao-Pu; Wang, Jun

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • The analytical solution for Mathieu–Duffing oscillator with fractional-order delayed feedback is obtained. • The fractional-order delayed feedback has both the functions of delayed velocity feedback and delayed displacement feedback. • The special effects of time delay on nonzero periodic solutions are analyzed in detail. • The effects of the fractional-order parameters on system response are characterized. - Abstract: In this paper, the dynamical response of Mathieu–Duffing oscillator under fractional-order delayed feedback is investigated. At first, the approximate analytical solution and the amplitude-frequency equation are obtained based on the averaging method. The equivalent stiffness coefficient and equivalent damping coefficient are defined by the feedback coefficient, fractional order and time delay et al. The effects of feedback coefficient, fractional order and time delay on these two equivalent parameters are analyzed. It is found that the fractional-order delayed feedback has not only the function of delayed velocity feedback, but also the function of delayed displacement feedback. Then, the comparison of the amplitude-frequency curves obtained by the analytical and numerical solutions verifies the correctness and satisfactory precision of the approximate analytical solution. The effects of the parameters in the fractional-order delayed feedback on the complex dynamical behaviors of Mathieu–Duffing oscillator are studied. It could be found that fractional-order delayed feedback has important influences on the dynamical behavior of Mathieu–Duffing oscillator, and the results are very helpful to design, analyze or control in vibration engineering.

  3. Dynamics of brain responses to phobic-related stimulation in specific phobia subtypes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caseras, Xavier; Mataix-Cols, David; Trasovares, Maria Victoria; López-Solà, Marina; Ortriz, Hector; Pujol, Jesus; Soriano-Mas, Carles; Giampietro, Vincent; Brammer, Michael J; Torrubia, Rafael

    2010-10-01

    Very few studies have investigated to what extent different subtypes of specific phobia share the same underlying functional neuroanatomy. This study aims to investigate the potential differences in the anatomy and dynamics of the blood oxygen level-dependent (BOLD) responses associated with spider and blood-injection-injury phobias. We used an event-related paradigm in 14 untreated spider phobics, 15 untreated blood-injection-injury phobics and 17 controls. Phobic images successfully induced distress only in phobic participants. Both phobic groups showed a similar pattern of heart rate increase following the presentation of phobic stimuli, this being different from controls. The presentation of phobic images induced activity within the same brain network in all participants, although the intensity of brain responses was significantly higher in phobics. Only blood-injection-injury phobics showed greater activity in the ventral prefrontal cortex compared with controls. This phobia group also presented a lower activity peak in the left amygdala compared with spider phobics. Importantly, looking at the dynamics of BOLD responses, both phobia groups showed a quicker time-to-peak in the right amygdala than controls, but only spider phobics also differed from controls in this parameter within the left amygdala. Considering these and previous findings, both phobia subtypes show very similar responses regarding their immediate reaction to phobia-related images, but critical differences in their sustained responses to these stimuli. These results highlight the importance of considering complex mental processes potentially associated with coping and emotion regulation processes, rather than exclusively focusing on primary neural responses to threat, when investigating fear and phobias. © 2010 The Authors. European Journal of Neuroscience © 2010 Federation of European Neuroscience Societies and Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  4. Dynamic response of a rub-impact rotor system under axial thrust

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    An, Xueli; Zhou, Jianzhong; Xiang, Xiuqiao; Li, Chaoshun; Luo, Zhimeng [Huazhong University of Science andTechnology, College of Hydroelectric and Digitalization Engineering, Wuhan, Hubei (China)

    2009-11-15

    A model of a rigid rotor system under axial thrust with rotor-to-stator is developed based on the classic impact theory and is analyzed by the Lagrangian dynamics. The rubbing condition is modeled using the elastic impact-contact idealization, which consists of normal and tangential forces at the rotor-to-stator contact point. Mass eccentricity and rotating speed are used as control parameters to simulate the response of rotor system. The motions of periodic, quasi-periodic and chaotic are found in the rotor system response. Mass eccentricity plays an important role in creating chaotic phenomena. (orig.)

  5. Dynamic physiological responses to the incremental shuttle walk test in adults

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Evandro Fornias Sperandio

    Full Text Available Abstract Introduction: Understanding the normal dynamic physiological responses to the incremental shuttle walk test might enhance the interpretation of walking performance in clinical settings. Objective: To assess dynamic physiological responses to the incremental shuttle walk test and its predictors in healthy adults. Methods: We assessed the simultaneous rates of changes of Δoxygen uptake/Δwalking velocity (ΔVO 2 /ΔWV, Δheart rate/Δoxygen uptake (ΔHR/ΔVO 2 , Δventilation/Δcarbon dioxide production (ΔVE/ΔVCO 2 , and Δtidal volume/Δlinearized ventilation (ΔVT/ΔlnVE during the incremental shuttle walk test in 100 men and women older than 40 years. Fat and lean body masses (bioimpedance were also evaluated. Results: We found that the dynamic relationships were not sex-dependent. Participants aged ≥ 70 presented declines in ΔVO 2 /ΔWV slope compared to those aged 40-49 (215 ± 69 vs. 288 ± 84 mL.min-1.km.h-1. Obese participants presented shallower slopes for ΔVO 2 /ΔWV (2.94 ± 0.90 vs. 3.84 ± 1.21 mL.min-1.kg-1.km.h-1 and ΔVT/ΔlnVE (0.57 ± 0.20 vs. 0.67 ± 0.26. We found negative influence of fat body mass on ΔVT/ΔlnVE (R2 = 0.20 and positive influence of lean body mass on ΔVO 2 /ΔWV (R2 = 0.31, ΔHR/ΔVO2 (R2 = 0.25, and ΔVT/ΔlnVE (R2 = 0.44. Conclusion: Dynamic relationships during walking were slightly influenced by age, but not sex-dependent. Body composition played an important role in these indices. Our results may provide better interpretation of walking performance in patients with chronic diseases.

  6. Dynamic Variables Fail to Predict Fluid Responsiveness in an Animal Model With Pericardial Effusion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broch, Ole; Renner, Jochen; Meybohm, Patrick; Albrecht, Martin; Höcker, Jan; Haneya, Assad; Steinfath, Markus; Bein, Berthold; Gruenewald, Matthias

    2016-10-01

    The reliability of dynamic and volumetric variables of fluid responsiveness in the presence of pericardial effusion is still elusive. The aim of the present study was to investigate their predictive power in a porcine model with hemodynamic relevant pericardial effusion. A single-center animal investigation. Twelve German domestic pigs. Pigs were studied before and during pericardial effusion. Instrumentation included a pulmonary artery catheter and a transpulmonary thermodilution catheter in the femoral artery. Hemodynamic variables like cardiac output (COPAC) and stroke volume (SVPAC) derived from pulmonary artery catheter, global end-diastolic volume (GEDV), stroke volume variation (SVV), and pulse-pressure variation (PPV) were obtained. At baseline, SVV, PPV, GEDV, COPAC, and SVPAC reliably predicted fluid responsiveness (area under the curve 0.81 [p = 0.02], 0.82 [p = 0.02], 0.74 [p = 0.07], 0.74 [p = 0.07], 0.82 [p = 0.02]). After establishment of pericardial effusion the predictive power of dynamic variables was impaired and only COPAC and SVPAC and GEDV allowed significant prediction of fluid responsiveness (area under the curve 0.77 [p = 0.04], 0.76 [p = 0.05], 0.83 [p = 0.01]) with clinically relevant changes in threshold values. In this porcine model, hemodynamic relevant pericardial effusion abolished the ability of dynamic variables to predict fluid responsiveness. COPAC, SVPAC, and GEDV enabled prediction, but their threshold values were significantly changed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Decision-Making for Systemic Water Risks: Insights From a Participatory Risk Assessment Process in Vietnam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wyrwoll, Paul R.; Grafton, R. Quentin; Daniell, Katherine A.; Chu, Hoang Long; Ringler, Claudia; Lien, Le Thi Ha; Khoi, Dang Kim; Do, Thang Nam; Tuan, Nguyen Do Anh

    2018-03-01

    Systemic threats to food-energy-environment-water systems require national policy responses. Yet complete control of these complex systems is impossible and attempts to mitigate systemic risks can generate unexpected feedback effects. Perverse outcomes from national policy can emerge from the diverse responses of decision-makers across different levels and scales of resource governance. Participatory risk assessment processes can help planners to understand subnational dynamics and ensure that policies do not undermine the resilience of social-ecological systems and infrastructure networks. Researchers can play an important role in participatory processes as both technical specialists and brokers of stakeholder knowledge on the feedbacks generated by systemic risks and policy decisions. Here, we evaluate the use of causal modeling and participatory risk assessment to develop national policy on systemic water risks. We present an application of the Risks and Options Assessment for Decision-Making (ROAD) process to a district of Vietnam where national agricultural water reforms are being piloted. The methods and results of this project provide general insights about how to support resilient decision-making, including the transfer of knowledge across administrative levels, identification of feedback effects, and the effective implementation of risk assessment processes.

  8. The dynamic response of carbon fiber-filled polymer composites

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patterson B.

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available The dynamic (shock responses of two carbon fiber-filled polymer composites have been quantified using gas gun-driven plate impact experimentation. The first composite is a filament-wound, highly unidirectional carbon fiber-filled epoxy with a high degree of porosity. The second composite is a chopped carbon fiber- and graphite-filled phenolic resin with little-to-no porosity. Hugoniot data are presented for the carbon fiber-epoxy (CE composite to 18.6 GPa in the through-thickness direction, in which the shock propagates normal to the fibers. The data are best represented by a linear Rankine-Hugoniot fit: Us = 2.87 + 1.17 ×up(ρ0 = 1.536g/cm3. The shock wave structures were found to be highly heterogeneous, both due to the anisotropic nature of the fiber-epoxy microstructure, and the high degree of void volume. Plate impact experiments were also performed on a carbon fiber-filled phenolic (CP composite to much higher shock input pressures, exceeding the reactants-to-products transition common to polymers. The CP was found to be stiffer than the filament-wound CE in the unreacted Hugoniot regime, and transformed to products near the shock-driven reaction threshold on the principal Hugoniot previously shown for the phenolic binder itself. [19] On-going research is focused on interrogating the direction-dependent dyanamic response and dynamic failure strength (spall for the CE composite in the TT and 0∘ (fiber directions.

  9. Estimation of nonlinearities from pseudodynamic and dynamic responses of bridge structures using the Delay Vector Variance method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaksic, Vesna; Mandic, Danilo P.; Karoumi, Raid; Basu, Bidroha; Pakrashi, Vikram

    2016-01-01

    Analysis of the variability in the responses of large structural systems and quantification of their linearity or nonlinearity as a potential non-invasive means of structural system assessment from output-only condition remains a challenging problem. In this study, the Delay Vector Variance (DVV) method is used for full scale testing of both pseudo-dynamic and dynamic responses of two bridges, in order to study the degree of nonlinearity of their measured response signals. The DVV detects the presence of determinism and nonlinearity in a time series and is based upon the examination of local predictability of a signal. The pseudo-dynamic data is obtained from a concrete bridge during repair while the dynamic data is obtained from a steel railway bridge traversed by a train. We show that DVV is promising as a marker in establishing the degree to which a change in the signal nonlinearity reflects the change in the real behaviour of a structure. It is also useful in establishing the sensitivity of instruments or sensors deployed to monitor such changes.

  10. Risk profiles and corporate social responsibility for socially disadvantaged groups

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Serbanescu Cosmin

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Developing a suitable mechanism to stimulate the effective redeployment of capital to social activities can be designed using the corporate social responsibility (CSR concept. Informational asymmetry about the real state of social risks influences the effectiveness of allocations in social protection. Reducing information asymmetries can be achieved by providing the corporations with socially determined risk profiles based on predetermined patterns. Offering concrete lines of action following the risk profiles approach which to base investment decisions of companies in CSR can maximize the results of such a mechanism. In a previous study the authors have developed a theoretical model for determining the poverty risk profile. This study aims to present the practical application of the theoretical model and to provide comments on some errors. Hence, the authors analyzed Buzau county municipalities in presenting the highest risk level determined by the theoretical model and related causes and performed an impact assessment of an investment in CSR based on a model. Specifically, the authors evaluated the impact of reducing the risk of poverty for a suitable investment in CSR. In the second part of the study, the authors analyzed the types of errors that can be found in the municipalities risk profile model due to the granularity of the data. Thus, for the error of over-inclusion, the authors assessed social allocative efficiency at the community level using benchmarking analysis, Data Envelopment respectively and analyzed the data of the under-inclusion error in Buzau county villages. The paper aims to analyze the relative limits on quantitative models and risk of poverty and the practical implementation of these types of models in the development of corporate social responsibility. The study provides also a useful tool which can be made available to companies in order to increase the vulnerable groups’ life quality and the satisfaction of

  11. Optimization method to branch-and-bound large SBO state spaces under dynamic probabilistic risk assessment via use of LENDIT scales and S2R2 sets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nielsen, Joseph; Tokuhiro, Akira; Khatry, Jivan; Hiromoto, Robert

    2014-01-01

    Traditional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methods have been developed to evaluate risk associated with complex systems; however, PRA methods lack the capability to evaluate complex dynamic systems. In these systems, time and energy scales associated with transient events may vary as a function of transition times and energies to arrive at a different physical state. Dynamic PRA (DPRA) methods provide a more rigorous analysis of complex dynamic systems. Unfortunately DPRA methods introduce issues associated with combinatorial explosion of states. In order to address this combinatorial complexity, a branch-and-bound optimization technique is applied to the DPRA formalism to control the combinatorial state explosion. In addition, a new characteristic scaling metric (LENDIT – length, energy, number, distribution, information and time) is proposed as linear constraints that are used to guide the branch-and-bound algorithm to limit the number of possible states to be analyzed. The LENDIT characterization is divided into four groups or sets – 'state, system, resource and response' (S2R2) – describing reactor operations (normal and off-normal). In this paper we introduce the branch-and-bound DPRA approach and the application of LENDIT scales and S2R2 sets to a station blackout (SBO) transient. (author)

  12. Livestock-associated methicillin resistant Staphylococcus aureus in pigs - prevalence, risk factors and transmission dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Broens, E.M.

    2011-01-01

    In 2004, an association between human carriage of methicillin resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) and contact with pigs was found. To assess the implications of this finding for veterinary and public health more insight into the prevalence, risk factors and transmission dynamics of

  13. Nonlinear dynamics of skin blood flow response to mechanical and thermal stresses in the plantar foot of diabetics with peripheral neuropathy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liao, Fuyuan; Jan, Yih-Kuen

    2017-01-01

    Diabetic foot ulcers (DFU) are a major complication in diabetics. Impaired microvascular reactivity is a major contributor to the development of DFU and has been traditionally quantified by time-domain or frequency-domain measures of skin blood flow (SBF). These measures, however, are unable to characterize the changes of nonlinear dynamics of SBF associated with diabetes and peripheral neuropathy. The objective of this study was to investigate altered nonlinear dynamics of skin blood flow in the plantar foot of diabetics with peripheral neuropathy. 18 type 2 diabetics with peripheral neuropathy and 8 healthy controls were recruited. SBF at the first metatarsal head in response to a loading pressure of 300 mmHg and a local heating was measured using laser Doppler flowmetry. A sample entropy approach was used to quantify the degree of regularity of SBF. Our results showed that the regularity degree of SBF in the diabetic foot underwent only small changes during post-occlusive reactive hyperemia and thermally induced biphasic response compared to non-diabetics. SBF of the diabetic foot has higher degree of irregularity during reactive hyperemia because of attenuated myogenic activity, and demonstrated higher regularity during the biphasic response largely due to significantly enhanced cardiac activities. This study suggests that the regularity degree of SBF at the first metatarsal head could be used to assess impaired microvascular reactivity and thus may be used to assess the risk for DFU in diabetics with peripheralneuropathy.

  14. The Crisis of the Sovereign Debt - Interdependencies, Responsibilities and Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Georgeta Dragomir

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available The increase of government debt continues and maintains the financial crisis as an additional risk factor at national, regional or global level. The causes which lead to the raise of the national debt can be found in the effects of a major crisis but, in turn, this phenomenon feeds imbalances generating economic and financial crisis. The importance of this topic is defined by its magnitude and dynamics, in the long-term effects on the economy, finances, policies and, ultimately, on the completeness of a state. Solutions are available to the national public authorities in the context of regional policy, but they are circumscribed also to the imperatives imposed by the international lenders. Not infrequently, their efficiency was affected by subjective factors, along with the lack of preventive actions or of proper long-term vision. There have been made references to the analysis of international bodies or financial authorities, at authors dedicated to this complex problem. As method of approach we have used the bibliographic study, processing and analysis of data, and previous researches. The results are the analysis and explanation of specific developments of sovereign debt crisis, of interactions, highlighting the effects and solutions. The research is an important basis for specialists, public authorities and academics. As value, the work is a synthesis and a comparative analysis so as to identify trends, responsibilities and solutions.

  15. Using incident response trees as a tool for risk management of online financial services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorton, Dan

    2014-09-01

    The article introduces the use of probabilistic risk assessment for modeling the incident response process of online financial services. The main contribution is the creation of incident response trees, using event tree analysis, which provides us with a visual tool and a systematic way to estimate the probability of a successful incident response process against the currently known risk landscape, making it possible to measure the balance between front-end and back-end security measures. The model is presented using an illustrative example, and is then applied to the incident response process of a Swedish bank. Access to relevant data is verified and the applicability and usability of the proposed model is verified using one year of historical data. Potential advantages and possible shortcomings are discussed, referring to both the design phase and the operational phase, and future work is presented. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  16. Dynamic laser speckle to detect motile bacterial response of Pseudomonas aeruginosa

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sendra, H; Murialdo, S; Passoni, L

    2007-01-01

    This proposal deals with the technique for detection of motile response of Pseudomonas aeruginosa using dynamic laser speckle or biospeckle as an alternative method. The study of bacterial displacement plays an essential role in biocatalysts processes and biodegradation. Hence, some biodegrading enzymes are benign catalytic that could be used for the production of industrially useful compounds as well as in wastewater treatments. This work presents an experimental set up and a computational process using frame sequences of dynamic laser speckle as a novel application. The objective was the detection of different levels of motility in bacteria. The encouraging results were achieved through a direct and non invasive observation method of the phenomenon

  17. Dynamic window daylighting systems: electropolymeric technology for solar responsive building envelopes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krietemeyer, Elizabeth A.; Smith, Shane I.; Dyson, Anna H.

    2011-04-01

    Human health and energy problems associated with the lack of control of sunlight in contemporary buildings have necessitated research into dynamic windows for energy efficient buildings. Existing window technologies have made moderate progress towards greater energy performance for facades but remain limited in their response to dynamic solar conditions, building energy requirements, and variable user preferences for visual comfort. Recent developments in electropolymeric display technology provide opportunities to transfer electroactive polymers to windows that can achieve high levels of geometric and spectral selectivity through the building envelope in order to meet the lighting, thermal and user requirements of occupied spaces. Experimental simulations that investigate daylight quality, energy performance, and architectural effects of electropolymeric glazing technology are presented.

  18. Dynamic strategic responses among advertisers: the case of meat products

    OpenAIRE

    Jeffrey Hyde; Brent Gloy

    2007-01-01

    The case of strategic advertising response is examined for branded and generic meat products (beef, pork, and poultry). A dynamic conceptual model is developed to identify the determinants of advertising expenditures. A time-series model is then used to examine the competitive behavior of branded and generic meat advertisers. The results identify two types of advertising strategies those based upon changes in revenues and those based upon changes in competitor advertising expenditures. Most g...

  19. Entrepreneurial dynamics and social responsibility: mapping an expanded intellectual territory

    OpenAIRE

    Blundel, Richard; Spence, Laura J.

    2009-01-01

    Objectives: (1) To provide a constructive critique of the interface between the entrepreneurial growth dynamics research and social responsibility literatures; (2) to explore opportunities for making new connections between these literatures in order to address substantive ‘gaps’ in research and policy-making ; (3) to map the broader intellectual territory implied by this critique; (4) to outline a tentative research agenda. \\ud Prior work: The paper draws on two main strands of research: ent...

  20. The risks of hydraulic fracturing and the responsibilities of engineers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Kirkman

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available One third of U.S. natural gas is extracted by injecting fluid at high pressure into shale formations, a process associated with a number of possible hazards and risks that have become the subject of intense public controversy. We develop a three-part schema to make sense of risks of hydraulic fracturing and the responsibilities of engineers: the lab, the field, and the forum. In the lab, researchers seek to answer basic questions about, for example, the behavior of shale under particular conditions; there uncertainty seems to arise at every turn. In the field, engineers and others work to implement technological processes, such as hydraulic fracturing and the subsequent extraction of oil and gas; hazards may arise as natural and social systems respond in sometimes surprising ways. In the forum, the public and their representatives deliberate about risk and acceptable risk, questions that are framed in ethical as well as technical terms. The difficulty of characterizing – and in living up to – the responsibilities of engineers lie in part in the apparent distance between the lab and the forum. We examine in turn uncertainties in the lab, hazards in the field, and deliberation in the forum, leading to the conclusion that scientists and engineers can and should help to inform public deliberation but that their research cannot, on its own, resolve all controversies. Scientists and engineers who seek to inform deliberation should be mindful of the scope and limits of their authority, clear and modest in communicating research findings to the public, and careful to avoid even apparent conflicts of interest wherever possible. We close by drawing from the lab-field-forum schema to suggest a direction for pedagogical innovations aimed at the formation of responsible engineers in the context of college-level degree programs.

  1. The tank's dynamic response under nuclear explosion blast wave

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xu Mei; Wang Lianghou; Li Xiaotian; Yu Suyuan; Zhang Zhengming; Wan Li

    2005-01-01

    To weapons and equipment, blast wave is the primary destructive factor. In this paper, taken the real model-59 tank as an example, we try to transform the damage estimation problem into computing a fluid structure interaction problem with finite element method. The response of tank under nuclear explosion blast wave is computed with the general-coupling algorithm. Also, the dynamical interaction of blast wave and tank is reflected in real time. The deformation of each part of the tank is worked out and the result corresponds to the real-measured data. (authors)

  2. Dynamic pricing for demand response considering market price uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ghazvini, Mohammad Ali Fotouhi; Soares, Joao; Morais, Hugo

    2017-01-01

    Retail energy providers (REPs) can employ different strategies such as offering demand response (DR) programs, participating in bilateral contracts, and employing self-generation distributed generation (DG) units to avoid financial losses in the volatile electricity markets. In this paper......, the problem of setting dynamic retail sales price by a REP is addressed with a robust optimization technique. In the proposed model, the REP offers price-based DR programs while it faces uncertainties in the wholesale market price. The main contribution of this paper is using a robust optimization approach...

  3. Tunable dynamic response of magnetic gels: Impact of structural properties and magnetic fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tarama, Mitsusuke; Cremer, Peet; Borin, Dmitry Y.; Odenbach, Stefan; Löwen, Hartmut; Menzel, Andreas M.

    2014-10-01

    Ferrogels and magnetic elastomers feature mechanical properties that can be reversibly tuned from outside through magnetic fields. Here we concentrate on the question of how their dynamic response can be adjusted. The influence of three factors on the dynamic behavior is demonstrated using appropriate minimal models: first, the orientational memory imprinted into one class of the materials during their synthesis; second, the structural arrangement of the magnetic particles in the materials; and third, the strength of an external magnetic field. To illustrate the latter point, structural data are extracted from a real experimental sample and analyzed. Understanding how internal structural properties and external influences impact the dominant dynamical properties helps to design materials that optimize the requested behavior.

  4. Dynamic response signatures of a scaled model platform for floating wind turbines in an ocean wave basin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaksic, V; O'Shea, R; Cahill, P; Murphy, J; Mandic, D P; Pakrashi, V

    2015-02-28

    Understanding of dynamic behaviour of offshore wind floating substructures is extremely important in relation to design, operation, maintenance and management of floating wind farms. This paper presents assessment of nonlinear signatures of dynamic responses of a scaled tension-leg platform (TLP) in a wave tank exposed to different regular wave conditions and sea states characterized by the Bretschneider, the Pierson-Moskowitz and the JONSWAP spectra. Dynamic responses of the TLP were monitored at different locations using load cells, a camera-based motion recognition system and a laser Doppler vibrometer. The analysis of variability of the TLP responses and statistical quantification of their linearity or nonlinearity, as non-destructive means of structural monitoring from the output-only condition, remains a challenging problem. In this study, the delay vector variance (DVV) method is used to statistically study the degree of nonlinearity of measured response signals from a TLP. DVV is observed to create a marker estimating the degree to which a change in signal nonlinearity reflects real-time behaviour of the structure and also to establish the sensitivity of the instruments employed to these changes. The findings can be helpful in establishing monitoring strategies and control strategies for undesirable levels or types of dynamic response and can help to better estimate changes in system characteristics over the life cycle of the structure. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

  5. A test of maternal programming of offspring stress response to predation risk in threespine sticklebacks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mommer, Brett C; Bell, Alison M

    2013-10-02

    Non-genetic maternal effects are widespread across taxa and challenge our traditional understanding of inheritance. Maternal experience with predators, for example, can have lifelong consequences for offspring traits, including fitness. Previous work in threespine sticklebacks showed that females exposed to simulated predation risk produced eggs with higher cortisol content and offspring with altered anti-predator behavior. However, it is unknown whether this maternal effect is mediated via the offspring glucocorticoid stress response and if it is retained over the entire lifetime of offspring. Therefore, we tested the hypothesis that maternal exposure to simulated predation risk has long-lasting effects on the cortisol response to simulated predation risk in stickleback offspring. We measured circulating concentrations of cortisol before (baseline), 15 min after, and 60 min after exposure to a simulated predation risk. We compared adult offspring of predator-exposed mothers and control mothers in two different social environments (alone or in a group). Relative to baseline, offspring plasma cortisol was highest 15 min after exposure to simulated predation risk and decreased after 60 min. Offspring of predator-exposed mothers differed in the cortisol response to simulated predation risk compared to offspring of control mothers. In general, females had higher cortisol than males, and fish in a group had lower cortisol than fish that were by themselves. The buffering effect of the social environment did not differ between maternal treatments or between males and females. Altogether the results show that while a mother's experience with simulated predation risk might affect the physiological response of her adult offspring to a predator, sex and social isolation have much larger effects on the stress response to predation risk in sticklebacks. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Non-parametric Bayesian models of response function in dynamic image sequences

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Tichý, Ondřej; Šmídl, Václav

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 151, č. 1 (2016), s. 90-100 ISSN 1077-3142 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-29225S Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Response function * Blind source separation * Dynamic medical imaging * Probabilistic models * Bayesian methods Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 2.498, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2016/AS/tichy-0456983.pdf

  7. Community perceptions and response to flood risks in Nyando District, Western Kenya

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hellen Nyakundi

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available In Kenya, the ability of local people to resist the impact of disasters has not been given adequate attention. A descriptive cross sectional study sought to investigate community perceptions and responses to flood risks in low and high risk areas of the Nyando District, Western Kenya. A total of 528 households, six government officials and have project managers of Community Based Organizations (CBOs and Non Governmental Organizations (NGOs were interviewed. Additionally, seven Focus Group Discussions(FGDs involving three women, two male and two teacher groups were conducted. Data were analysed using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS Program. The Chi-square test was used to determine associations and di'erences between variables. In the study, 83% of the respondents were aware of Traditional Flood Knowledge (TFK and 80% acknowledged its use. Perception of the risk is influenced by several variables, most notably past experience of major floods and having survived them. Residents in the high risk areas had signfficantly higher levels of awareness and use of traditional flood knowledge. they were more aware of the nature of the flood related health risks they were exposed to and appeared better prepared for future flood risk. They were, however, more dependent on external aid. On the other hand, residents living in the low risk area reported better success with their response mechanisms.

  8. Dynamic response characteristics evaluation of hydrostatic bearing in hydraulic piston pump/motor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ham, Young Bog; Yun, So Nam; Kim, Dong Soo; Choi, Byoung Oh; Kim, Sung Dong

    2001-01-01

    In swash plate type axial piston hydraulic pump and motor, the piston shoe is periodically pressurized with square function shape by supply pressure load as rotation of cylinder barrel. Therefore the recess pressure ono bottom part of piston shoe is suddenly increase through orifice in the piston shoe. In this study, we simulated that the frequency response of the recess pressure against with change of supply pressure with analysis tool. Also, we evaluate the dynamic response characteristics of overbalanced hydrostatic bearing with change of the orifice diameter

  9. Influence of Shaft Torsional Stiffness on Dynamic Response of Four-Stage Main Transmission System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuan Chen

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Dynamic response analysis has potential for increasing fatigue life of the components in the transmission of a multistage main transmission system. The calculated data can demonstrate the influence of shaft torsional stiffness on dynamic characteristics of the system. Detecting key shafts of the system and analyzing their sensitivity are important for the design of four-stage helicopter gear box. Lumped mass method is applied for dynamic modeling and Fourier method is used to solve differential equation of the system. Results of the analysis indicate that key shafts can be designed carefully to improve the performance of the transmission system.

  10. Flood risk and climate change in the Rotterdam area, The Netherlands: Enhancing citizen's climate risk perceptions and prevention responses despite skepticism

    OpenAIRE

    de Boer, J.; Botzen, W.J.W.; Terpstra, T.

    2016-01-01

    Effective communication about climate change and related risks is complicated by the polarization between “climate alarmists” and “skeptics.” This paper provides insights for the design of climate risk communication strategies by examining how the interplay between climate change and flood risk communication affects citizens’ risk perceptions and responses. The study is situated in a delta area with substantial geographic variations in the occurrence and potential impact of flood risk, which ...

  11. The politics of urban climate risks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blok, Anders

    2018-01-01

    makes valuable contributions, this article suggests that all of them remain under-theorized from the point of view of the specific dynamics of local–global interdependencies in urban climate risk politics. In response, the article draws on Beck in outlining the contours of new urban–cosmopolitan risk...... communities. To this effect, empirical studies into large-scale East Asian and European port cities is used to illustrate how a shared transnational risk imaginary (e.g. of future sea-level rises) may help spur collective action and new forms of trans-boundary solidarity. Reflecting on such research practices...

  12. Costs of fear: Behavioral and life-history responses to risk and their demographic consequences vary across species

    Science.gov (United States)

    LaManna, Joseph A.; Martin, Thomas E.

    2016-01-01

    Behavioural responses to reduce predation risk might cause demographic ‘costs of fear’. Costs differ among species, but a conceptual framework to understand this variation is lacking. We use a life-history framework to tie together diverse traits and life stages to better understand interspecific variation in responses and costs. We used natural and experimental variation in predation risk to test phenotypic responses and associated demographic costs for 10 songbird species. Responses such as increased parental attentiveness yielded reduced development time and created benefits such as reduced predation probability. Yet, responses to increased risk also created demographic costs by reducing offspring production in the absence of direct predation. This cost of fear varied widely across species, but predictably with the probability of repeat breeding. Use of a life-history framework can aid our understanding of potential demographic costs from predation, both from responses to perceived risk and from direct predation mortality.

  13. A study on compliant layers and its influence on dynamic response of a hydrodynamic journal bearing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomsen, Kim; Klit, Peder

    2011-01-01

    For some hydrodynamic bearing applications polymer-lined bearings are chosen over traditional metal alloy bearings due to their better wear and friction properties when operating at very thin films, e.g. in the mixed lubrication region. The introduction of a compliant layer also affects the dynamic...... used to evaluate hydrodynamic bearing designs: dynamic response, maximum pressure, minimum film thickness, wear, power loss and temperature response. The primary findings are that the maximum pressures are reduced significantly and this comes at the expense of slightly higher eccentricity ratios during...

  14. Mean-risk efficient portfolio analysis of demand response and supply resources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deng, Shi-Jie; Xu, Li

    2009-01-01

    In the restructured electric power utility industry, reducing the risk exposure of profit to the highly volatile electricity wholesale price and the fluctuating demand of end users is essential to the financial success of load-serving entities (LSEs). Demand response (DR) programs have been utilized to manage the correlated price and volumetric risks, and simultaneously improve the reliability of the power system. This paper proposes an efficient portfolio framework for LSEs to evaluate the role of DR programs in achieving a desirable tradeoff between profit and risk. The mean-risk efficient frontier formed by the optimal portfolios allows LSEs to identify the least amount of risk to bear corresponding to a given profit target. Numerical examples are provided to illustrate the impact of DR programs on the composition of the optimal portfolios in achieving different levels of tradeoff between risk and reward. (author)

  15. New Insight in Understanding the mechanical responses of polymer glasses using molecular dynamic simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Yexin; Wang, Shi-Qing; Tsige, Mesfin

    The Kremer-Grest bead-spring model has been the standard model in molecular dynamics simulation of polymer glasses. However, due to current computational limitations in accessing relevant time scales in polymer glasses in a reasonable amount of CPU time, simulation of mechanical response of polymer glasses in molecular dynamic simulations requires a much higher quenching rate and deformation rate than used in experiments. Despite several orders of magnitude difference in time scale between simulation and experiment, previous studies have shown that simulations can produce meaningful results that can be directly compared with experimental results. In this work we show that by tuning the quenching rate and deformation rate relative to the segmental relaxation times, a reasonable mechanical response shows up in the glassy state. Specifically, we show a younger glass prepared with a faster quenching rate shows glassy responses only when the imposed deformation rate is proportionally higher. the National Science Foundation (DMR-1444859 and DMR-1609977).

  16. Dynamical responses to external stimuli for both cases of excitatory and inhibitory synchronization in a complex neuronal network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Sang-Yoon; Lim, Woochang

    2017-10-01

    For studying how dynamical responses to external stimuli depend on the synaptic-coupling type, we consider two types of excitatory and inhibitory synchronization (i.e., synchronization via synaptic excitation and inhibition) in complex small-world networks of excitatory regular spiking (RS) pyramidal neurons and inhibitory fast spiking (FS) interneurons. For both cases of excitatory and inhibitory synchronization, effects of synaptic couplings on dynamical responses to external time-periodic stimuli S ( t ) (applied to a fraction of neurons) are investigated by varying the driving amplitude A of S ( t ). Stimulated neurons are phase-locked to external stimuli for both cases of excitatory and inhibitory couplings. On the other hand, the stimulation effect on non-stimulated neurons depends on the type of synaptic coupling. The external stimulus S ( t ) makes a constructive effect on excitatory non-stimulated RS neurons (i.e., it causes external phase lockings in the non-stimulated sub-population), while S ( t ) makes a destructive effect on inhibitory non-stimulated FS interneurons (i.e., it breaks up original inhibitory synchronization in the non-stimulated sub-population). As results of these different effects of S ( t ), the type and degree of dynamical response (e.g., synchronization enhancement or suppression), characterized by the dynamical response factor [Formula: see text] (given by the ratio of synchronization degree in the presence and absence of stimulus), are found to vary in a distinctly different way, depending on the synaptic-coupling type. Furthermore, we also measure the matching degree between the dynamics of the two sub-populations of stimulated and non-stimulated neurons in terms of a "cross-correlation" measure [Formula: see text]. With increasing A , based on [Formula: see text], we discuss the cross-correlations between the two sub-populations, affecting the dynamical responses to S ( t ).

  17. Electromechanical responses of a long piezoelectric tube subjected to dynamic loading

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang, Jin H; Shiah, Y C; Lee, Bing Jean

    2008-01-01

    This paper deals with the fully coupled electromechanical response of a long piezoelectric tube subjected to periodic excitation loads. By adopting the variation approach for generalized loading conditions and utilizing Hamilton's principle, the governing differential equations are described in this paper. For studying the direct and converse effect of the piezoelectric tube, the equations of motion are then solved to give exact solutions corresponding to different boundary conditions prescribed for the tube functioning as sensors or actuators. For numerical illustrations of our analysis, a long tube made of polyvinylidene difluoride is investigated for its dynamic responses under different harmonic excitation loads. Contributing to the development of novel acousto-optic, actuator and sensor devices, this work may be extended to investigating the electromechanical responses of piezoelectric coatings on optical fibres

  18. The dynamic and quasi-static mechanical response of three aluminum armor alloys: 5059, 5083 and 7039

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Perez-Bergquist, Sara J., E-mail: sara.perezbergquist@gmail.com [Materials Science and Technology Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, NM 87545 (United States); Gray, G.T.; Cerreta, Ellen K.; Trujillo, Carl P.; Perez-Bergquist, Alex [Materials Science and Technology Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, NM 87545 (United States)

    2011-11-15

    Highlights: {yields} Aluminum alloys for use in armor applications. {yields} Mechanical response in dynamic and quasi-static regimes with temperature dependence. {yields} Shear localization with evidence of early stages of dynamic recrystallization. - Abstract: The mechanical response and microstructural evolution of aluminum alloys 5083, 5059 and 7039 was examined in compression and shear in both the quasi-static (0.001 s{sup -1}) and dynamic ({approx}2000 s{sup -1}) strain rate regimes. Electron Back Scattered Diffraction was utilized for detailed post-mortem analysis of the specimens following loading. The mechanical responses in shear were found to be strain-rate sensitive. At the slowest strain rates, all of the alloys had relatively large volumes of highly deformed material with 5083 and 5059 having the largest shear affected volumes. The dynamic strain rate test samples all formed highly compact shear localized volumes across the sheared zone with 7039 consistently displaying the narrowest shear regions. The morphology of these shear bands, along with the limited hardening during deformation, indicate a mechanism change at the higher strain rates. Higher resolution orientation image mapping has shown that between the three alloys there are varying degrees of crystallographic order within the shear bands. Transmission electron microscopy revealed various stages of dynamic recrystallization were present suggesting that while low strain rate deformation is controlled by dislocation multiplication and glide, high strain and strain-rate deformation is influenced in part due to mechanical recrystallization.

  19. Defining AML and MDS second cancer risk dynamics after diagnoses of first cancers treated or not with radiation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Radivoyevitch, T.; Sachs, R. K.; Gale, R. P.; Molenaar, R. J.; Brenner, D. J.; Hill, B. T.; Kalaycio, M. E.; Carraway, H. E.; Mukherjee, S.; Sekeres, M. A.; Maciejewski, J. P.

    2016-01-01

    Risks of acute myeloid leukemia (AML) and/or myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) are known to increase after cancer treatments. Their rise-and-fall dynamics and their associations with radiation have, however, not been fully characterized. To improve risk definition we developed SEERaBomb R software for

  20. Response to unfairness across the suicide risk spectrum.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carbajal, Jessica M; Gamboa, Jorge L; Moore, Jordan; Smith, Favrin; Ann Eads, Lou; Clothier, Jeffrey L; Cáceda, Ricardo

    2017-12-01

    Suicidal behavior is frequently triggered by social crises, such as familial, romantic, social or work-related conflict. A variety of cognitive and social functioning impairments has been associated with suicidal thoughts and acts. One of the precipitating and perpetuating factors of social conflict is the desire for retribution after a perceived offense, even at one's own detriment. We utilized the Ultimatum Game-a behavioral economic task which examines the behavioral response to perceived unfairness-in order to characterize the response to unfairness across the acute suicide risk spectrum. We examined five groups of adult individuals of both genders (n = 204): High- and Low-Lethality recent Suicide Attempters, Suicidal Ideators, Non-Suicidal Depressed Patients; and Healthy Controls. We also measured demographic and clinical variables. Even though all depressed groups showed similar rejection rates in the Ultimatum Game, there was a higher likelihood of rejecting offers in the low stakes condition in all acutely suicidal groups compared with healthy controls. Stake size, offer, education, and gender of the proposer were significantly associated with rejection rates. Acutely suicidal patients may be more vulnerable to adverse interpersonal interactions. Further characterization of social behavior may provide targets for secondary and tertiary prevention for high-risk individuals. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  1. The application of endochronic plasticity theory in modeling the dynamic inelastic response of structural systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin, H.C.; Hsieh, B.J.; Valentin, R.A.

    1981-01-01

    The endochronic theory of plasticity proposed by Valanis has been applied in predicting the inelastic responses of structural systems. A recently developed convected coordinates finite-element program has been modified to use an endochronic constitutive law. A series of sample problems for a variety of dynamic loadings are presented. The calculations that have been performed comparing classical and endochronic plasticity theories have revealed that the endochronic approach can result in a substantial reduction in computer time for equivalent solution accuracy. This result, combined with the apparent accuracy of material representation indicate that the use of endochronic plasticity has great potential in evaluating the dynamic response of structural systems. (orig.)

  2. Recent research and applications of numerical simulation for dynamic response of long-span bridges subjected to multiple loads.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Zhiwei; Chen, Bo

    2014-01-01

    Many long-span bridges have been built throughout the world in recent years but they are often subject to multiple types of dynamic loads, especially those located in wind-prone regions and carrying both trains and road vehicles. To ensure the safety and functionality of these bridges, dynamic responses of long-span bridges are often required for bridge assessment. Given that there are several limitations for the assessment based on field measurement of dynamic responses, a promising approach is based on numerical simulation technologies. This paper provides a detailed review of key issues involved in dynamic response analysis of long-span multiload bridges based on numerical simulation technologies, including dynamic interactions between running trains and bridge, between running road vehicles and bridge, and between wind and bridge, and in the wind-vehicle-bridge coupled system. Then a comprehensive review is conducted for engineering applications of newly developed numerical simulation technologies to safety assessment of long-span bridges, such as assessment of fatigue damage and assessment under extreme events. Finally, the existing problems and promising research efforts for the numerical simulation technologies and their applications to assessment of long-span multiload bridges are explored.

  3. Dynamic response and transfer function of social systems: A neuro-inspired model of collective human activity patterns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lymperopoulos, Ilias N

    2017-10-01

    The interaction of social networks with the external environment gives rise to non-stationary activity patterns reflecting the temporal structure and strength of exogenous influences that drive social dynamical processes far from an equilibrium state. Following a neuro-inspired approach, based on the dynamics of a passive neuronal membrane, and the firing rate dynamics of single neurons and neuronal populations, we build a state-of-the-art model of the collective social response to exogenous interventions. In this regard, we analyze online activity patterns with a view to determining the transfer function of social systems, that is, the dynamic relationship between external influences and the resulting activity. To this end, first we estimate the impulse response (Green's function) of collective activity, and then we show that the convolution of the impulse response with a time-varying external influence field accurately reproduces empirical activity patterns. To capture the dynamics of collective activity when the generating process is in a state of statistical equilibrium, we incorporate into the model a noisy input convolved with the impulse response function, thus precisely reproducing the fluctuations of stationary collective activity around a resting value. The outstanding goodness-of-fit of the model results to empirical observations, indicates that the model explains human activity patterns generated by time-dependent external influences in various socio-economic contexts. The proposed model can be used for inferring the temporal structure and strength of external influences, as well as the inertia of collective social activity. Furthermore, it can potentially predict social activity patterns. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Optical Response of Warm Dense Matter Using Real-Time Electron Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baczewski, Andrew; Shulenburger, Luke; Desjarlais, Michael; Magyar, Rudolph

    2014-03-01

    The extreme temperatures and solid-like densities in warm dense matter present a unique challenge for theory, wherein neither conventional models from condensed matter nor plasma physics capture all of the relevant phenomenology. While Kubo-Greenwood DFT calculations have proven capable of reproducing optical properties of WDM, they require a significant number of virtual orbitals to reach convergence due to their perturbative nature. Real-time TDDFT presents a complementary framework with a number of computationally favorable properties, including reduced cost complexity and better scalability, and has been used to reproduce the optical response of finite and ordered extended systems. We will describe the use of Ehrenfest-TDDFT to evolve coupled electron-nuclear dynamics in WDM systems, and the subsequent evaluation of optical response functions from the real-time electron dynamics. The advantages and disadvantages of this approach will be discussed relative to the current state-of-the-art. Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-program laboratory managed and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.

  5. Time Factor in the Theory of Anthropogenic Risk Prediction in Complex Dynamic Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ostreikovsky, V. A.; Shevchenko, Ye N.; Yurkov, N. K.; Kochegarov, I. I.; Grishko, A. K.

    2018-01-01

    The article overviews the anthropogenic risk models that take into consideration the development of different factors in time that influence the complex system. Three classes of mathematical models have been analyzed for the use in assessing the anthropogenic risk of complex dynamic systems. These models take into consideration time factor in determining the prospect of safety change of critical systems. The originality of the study is in the analysis of five time postulates in the theory of anthropogenic risk and the safety of highly important objects. It has to be stressed that the given postulates are still rarely used in practical assessment of equipment service life of critically important systems. That is why, the results of study presented in the article can be used in safety engineering and analysis of critically important complex technical systems.

  6. Analytical evaluation on dynamical response characteristics of reduced-moderation water reactor with tight-lattice core under natural circulation core cooling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ishikawa, Nobuyuki; Okubo, Tsutomu

    2009-01-01

    The time-domain analyses with TRAC-BF1 code were performed for clarifying the dynamical response characteristics of the reduced-moderation water reactor (RMWR) with tight-lattice core configuration. The response characteristics were evaluated based on the step response basically utilized for dynamical system evaluation. As for the most fundamental dynamical characteristics, the channel flow response characteristics of single fuel assembly were evaluated. In the evaluation, the appropriate single-phase pressure drop setting at the inlet orifice was determined in terms of response stability from the design viewpoint. In addition, from the investigation on the relation of the response and transit time of coolant, it is confirmed that the channel flow response of RMWR is dominated by the transit time of vapor phase resulting from a high void fraction operation condition. As for a natural circulation flow response, it is clarified that the response is strongly influenced by the effect of two-phase pressure loss owing to a high void fraction condition. The reactor power response with reactivity feedback shows quite stable response characteristics on account of the small absolute value of void reactivity coefficient.

  7. A coupled physical and economic model of the response of coastal real estate to climate risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNamara, Dylan E.; Keeler, Andrew

    2013-06-01

    Barring an unprecedented large-scale effort to raise island elevation, barrier-island communities common along the US East Coast are likely to eventually face inundation of the existing built environment on a timescale that depends on uncertain climatic forcing. Between the present and when a combination of sea-level rise and erosion renders these areas uninhabitable, communities must choose levels of defensive expenditures to reduce risks and individual residents must assess whether and when risk levels are unacceptably high to justify investment in housing. We model the dynamics of coastal adaptation as the interplay of underlying climatic risks, collective actions to mitigate those risks, and individual risk assessments based on beliefs in model predictions and processing of past climate events. Efforts linking physical and behavioural models to explore shoreline dynamics have not yet brought together this set of essential factors. We couple a barrier-island model with an agent-based model of real-estate markets to show that, relative to people with low belief in model predictions about climate change, informed property owners invest heavily in defensive expenditures in the near term and then abandon coastal real estate at some critical risk threshold that presages a period of significant price volatility.

  8. A dynamic course of T cell defects in individuals at risk for mood disorders

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Snijders, G.; Schiweck, C.; Mesman, E.; Grosse, L.; De Wit, H.; Nolen, W. A.; Drexhage, H. A.; Hillegers, M. H. J.

    Objectives: T cell abnormalities have been repeatedly reported in adult patients with mood disorders, suggesting a role of these cells in the pathogenesis of these disorders. In the present study, we explored the dynamics of circulating T cell subsets over time in a population at high familial risk

  9. A dynamic course of T cell defects in individuals at risk for mood disorders

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Snijders, G.; Schiweck, C.; Mesman, E.; Grosse, L.; De Wit, H.; Nolen, W. A.; Drexhage, H. A.; Hillegers, M. H. J.

    2016-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: T cell abnormalities have been repeatedly reported in adult patients with mood disorders, suggesting a role of these cells in the pathogenesis of these disorders. In the present study, we explored the dynamics of circulating T cell subsets over time in a population at high familial risk

  10. QUANTITATION OF MOLECULAR ENDPOINTS FOR THE DOSE-RESPONSE COMPONENT OF CANCER RISK ASSESSMENT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cancer risk assessment involves the steps of hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment and risk characterization. The rapid advances in the use of molecular biology approaches has had an impact on all four components, but the greatest overall current...

  11. The dynamic response of human subjects while seated in car seats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pope, M H; Magnusson, M; Broman, N H; Hasson, T

    1998-01-01

    A pendulum impact method was used to establish the dynamic response of the seated subject. Threaded K wires were placed in the L3 spinous process. The gain and phase angle between the platform and the vertebra were established. The response of the subject was observed while seated on a platform and a variety of other seats. The seats were found to be very important in the attenuation of the impulse, leading to a higher transmissibility. Clinical Relevance Skeletal impact through the lower extremity is quite common in many occupations. The importance of posture and seat design in attenuation of impulses has been established.

  12. Dynamic Behaviour and Seismic Response of Ground Supported Cylindrical Water Tanks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asha, Joseph; Glory, Joseph

    2018-05-01

    Liquid storage tank such as in water distribution systems, petroleum plants etc., constitute a vital component of life line systems. Reducing earthquake effects on liquid storage tanks, to minimize the environmental and economic impact of these effects, have always been an important engineering concern. In this paper, the dynamic behavior of cylindrical ground supported concrete water tanks with different aspect ratios is investigated using finite element software ANSYS. The natural frequencies and modal responses are obtained for impulsive and convective modes of vibration. The natural frequency of vibration of the tank is observed to be the lowest at maximum water depth. The fundamental impulsive frequency increases as water level reduces and for water level less than 1/3 of tank height, there is significantly no change in impulsive frequency. The effect of wall flexibility on dynamic behavior of the tank is investigated by performing the modal analysis of flexible and rigid tanks. For a partially filled tank, the results of the present study are of significant relevance. The response of the tank to the transient loading as horizontal ground motion of El Centro earthquake is studied for various water heights. As the height of water on the tank increases, the ultimate maximum seismic response parameters are also observed to be increased. The location of maximum hoop stress varies in accordance with the variations in input ground motion and water fill condition whereas shear and bending moment are maximum at the base.

  13. Frequency response function-based explicit framework for dynamic identification in human-structure systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Xiaojun; Živanović, Stana

    2018-05-01

    The aim of this paper is to propose a novel theoretical framework for dynamic identification in a structure occupied by a single human. The framework enables the prediction of the dynamics of the human-structure system from the known properties of the individual system components, the identification of human body dynamics from the known dynamics of the empty structure and the human-structure system and the identification of the properties of the structure from the known dynamics of the human and the human-structure system. The novelty of the proposed framework is the provision of closed-form solutions in terms of frequency response functions obtained by curve fitting measured data. The advantages of the framework over existing methods are that there is neither need for nonlinear optimisation nor need for spatial/modal models of the empty structure and the human-structure system. In addition, the second-order perturbation method is employed to quantify the effect of uncertainties in human body dynamics on the dynamic identification of the empty structure and the human-structure system. The explicit formulation makes the method computationally efficient and straightforward to use. A series of numerical examples and experiments are provided to illustrate the working of the method.

  14. Dynamic response of the U-tube liquid manometer with equal diameter columns

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zahariea, D

    2010-01-01

    The paper presents numerical solving methods using MATLAB programming language of the governing equation of the liquid oscillations in a U-tube liquid manometer with equal diameter columns. Assuming some numerical values for geometrical and functional parameters of this pressure measurement system, the dynamic behavior of the oscillating system will be analyzed using four MATLAB based computational methods: the method of the default MATLAB procedures, the Simulink method, the Simscape method and the method of the Control System Toolbox procedures. According to all these methods, in almost all the cases analyzed, the dynamic behavior of the U-tube liquid manometer with equal diameter columns corresponds to an under-damped dynamic system. The influence of some important constructive and functional parameters (the columns diameter, the manometer liquid, the capillarity action and the connection tube between the reservoir and the manometer) has been investigated. Improving the dynamic response (decreasing the overshoot and the settling time, increasing the phase and delay margins) can be achieved by increasing the connection tube length, by decreasing the columns diameter and by using a high density liquid manometer.

  15. The Dynamic Responsiveness of Organizations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Torben Juul

    Organizational studies should address contemporary challenges of dealing effectively with the increasingly complex and dynamic business conditions. In this context we argue that structural features are linked to the corporate strategy process and affect the organization’s ability to respond...... to respond to uncertain and changing conditions. We apply this model to interactions among individuals in organizations where ongoing experiential insights among dispersed operating managers interact with the forward-looking planning considerations around top-management. This identifies an organization...... identifies a dynamic system of interacting fast and slow processes. The fast system observes and reacts to environmental stimuli and the slow system interprets events and reasons about future actions. When the fast and slow processes interact they form a dynamic adaptive system that allows the organization...

  16. Analysis of the material configurations and influence on the dynamic response

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Murčinková Zuzana

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents the analysis of the material configuration of composites based on the measurement of their dynamic response. The article presents the measurement scheme, the design of the measuring stand together with the analysis of the results. Moreover, it analyses the FFT spectrums of layered long fibre composite, short fibre composites of different fibres materials and homogeneous materials as steel and aluminium alloy.

  17. Risk-sensitive mean-field games

    KAUST Repository

    Tembine, Hamidou

    2014-04-01

    In this paper, we study a class of risk-sensitive mean-field stochastic differential games. We show that under appropriate regularity conditions, the mean-field value of the stochastic differential game with exponentiated integral cost functional coincides with the value function satisfying a Hamilton -Jacobi- Bellman (HJB) equation with an additional quadratic term. We provide an explicit solution of the mean-field best response when the instantaneous cost functions are log-quadratic and the state dynamics are affine in the control. An equivalent mean-field risk-neutral problem is formulated and the corresponding mean-field equilibria are characterized in terms of backward-forward macroscopic McKean-Vlasov equations, Fokker-Planck-Kolmogorov equations, and HJB equations. We provide numerical examples on the mean field behavior to illustrate both linear and McKean-Vlasov dynamics. © 1963-2012 IEEE.

  18. Risk-sensitive mean-field games

    KAUST Repository

    Tembine, Hamidou; Zhu, Quanyan; Başar, Tamer

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, we study a class of risk-sensitive mean-field stochastic differential games. We show that under appropriate regularity conditions, the mean-field value of the stochastic differential game with exponentiated integral cost functional coincides with the value function satisfying a Hamilton -Jacobi- Bellman (HJB) equation with an additional quadratic term. We provide an explicit solution of the mean-field best response when the instantaneous cost functions are log-quadratic and the state dynamics are affine in the control. An equivalent mean-field risk-neutral problem is formulated and the corresponding mean-field equilibria are characterized in terms of backward-forward macroscopic McKean-Vlasov equations, Fokker-Planck-Kolmogorov equations, and HJB equations. We provide numerical examples on the mean field behavior to illustrate both linear and McKean-Vlasov dynamics. © 1963-2012 IEEE.

  19. Dynamic Behavior of Fault Slip Induced by Stress Waves

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guang-an Zhu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Fault slip burst is a serious dynamic hazard in coal mining. A static and dynamic analysis for fault slip was performed to assess the risk of rock burst. A numerical model FLAC3D was established to understand the stress state and mechanical responses of fault rock system. The results obtained from the analysis show that the dynamic behavior of fault slip induced by stress waves is significantly affected by mining depth, as well as dynamic disturbance intensity and the distance between the stope and the fault. The isolation effect of the fault is also discussed based on the numerical results with the fault angle appearing to have the strongest influence on peak vertical stress and velocity induced by dynamic disturbance. By taking these risks into account, a stress-relief technology using break-tip blast was used for fault slip burst control. This technique is able to reduce the stress concentration and increase the attenuation of dynamic load by fracturing the structure of coal and rock. The adoption of this stress-relief method leads to an effective reduction of fault slip induced rock burst (FSIRB occurrence.

  20. Human Trafficking in Nepal: Post-Earthquake Risk and Response.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gyawali, Bishal; Keeling, June; Kallestrup, Per

    2017-04-01

    As Nepal mourns the 1-year commemoration of the April 2015 earthquake and its aftershocks that killed more than 8500 people and left thousands injured and displaced, other more hidden repercussions of the resultant chaotic environment need attention: the increased risk of human trafficking. Considering that natural disasters provide a milieu for this illicit trade, there is a need for a robust response from stakeholders such as donors, civil society organizations, and government organizations against human trafficking following disasters such as the Nepal earthquake. Responsibility to prevent and fight trafficking should be explicitly included in the mandate of relief and rehabilitation mechanisms set up at the national level to coordinate the disaster relief response, serving to support populations in both rural and urban areas. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2017;11:153-154).

  1. A dynamic process of health risk assessment for business continuity management during the World Exposition Shanghai, China, 2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Xiaodong; Keim, Mark; Dong, Chen; Mahany, Mollie; Guo, Xiang

    2014-01-01

    Reports of health issues related to mass gatherings around the world have indicated a potential for public health and medical emergencies to occur on a scale that could place a significant impact on business continuity for national and international organisations. This paper describes a risk assessment process for business continuity management that was performed as part of the planning efforts related to the World Expo 2010 Shanghai China (Expo), the world's largest mass gathering to date. Altogether, 73 million visitors attended the Expo, generating over US$2bn of revenue. During 2008 to 2010, the Shanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention performed a dynamic series of four disaster risk assessments before and during the Expo. The purpose of this assessment process was to identify, analyse and evaluate risks for public health security during different stages of the Expo. This paper describes an overview of the novel approach for this multiple and dynamic process of assessment of health security risk for ensuring business continuity.

  2. 41 CFR 102-80.55 - Are Federal agencies responsible for managing the execution of risk reduction projects?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... Management Risks and Risk Reduction Strategies § 102-80.55 Are Federal agencies responsible for managing the... 41 Public Contracts and Property Management 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Are Federal agencies responsible for managing the execution of risk reduction projects? 102-80.55 Section 102-80.55 Public...

  3. Bmp indicator mice reveal dynamic regulation of transcriptional response.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna L Javier

    Full Text Available Cellular responses to Bmp ligands are regulated at multiple levels, both extracellularly and intracellularly. Therefore, the presence of these growth factors is not an accurate indicator of Bmp signaling activity. While a common approach to detect Bmp signaling activity is to determine the presence of phosphorylated forms of Smad1, 5 and 8 by immunostaining, this approach is time consuming and not quantitative. In order to provide a simpler readout system to examine the presence of Bmp signaling in developing animals, we developed BRE-gal mouse embryonic stem cells and a transgenic mouse line that specifically respond to Bmp ligand stimulation. Our reporter identifies specific transcriptional responses that are mediated by Smad1 and Smad4 with the Schnurri transcription factor complex binding to a conserved Bmp-Responsive Element (BRE, originally identified among Drosophila, Xenopus and human Bmp targets. Our BRE-gal mES cells specifically respond to Bmp ligands at concentrations as low as 5 ng/ml; and BRE-gal reporter mice, derived from the BRE-gal mES cells, show dynamic activity in many cellular sites, including extraembryonic structures and mammary glands, thereby making this a useful scientific tool.

  4. Dynamic compaction with high energy of sandy hydraulic fills

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khelalfa Houssam

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available A case study about the adoption of the dynamic compaction technique with high energy in a sandy hydraulic fill is presented. The feasibility of this technique to ensure the stability of the caisson workshop and to minimize the risk of liquefaction during manufacture. This Article is interested to establish diagnostic of dynamic compaction test, basing on the results of SPT tests and quality control as well as the details of work of compaction and the properties of filling materials. A theory of soil response to a high-energy impact during dynamic compaction is proposed.

  5. Dynamic Causal Modeling of the Cortical Responses to Wrist Perturbations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuan Yang

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Mechanical perturbations applied to the wrist joint typically evoke a stereotypical sequence of cortical and muscle responses. The early cortical responses (<100 ms are thought be involved in the “rapid” transcortical reaction to the perturbation while the late cortical responses (>100 ms are related to the “slow” transcortical reaction. Although previous studies indicated that both responses involve the primary motor cortex, it remains unclear if both responses are engaged by the same effective connectivity in the cortical network. To answer this question, we investigated the effective connectivity cortical network after a “ramp-and-hold” mechanical perturbation, in both the early (<100 ms and late (>100 ms periods, using dynamic causal modeling. Ramp-and-hold perturbations were applied to the wrist joint while the subject maintained an isometric wrist flexion. Cortical activity was recorded using a 128-channel electroencephalogram (EEG. We investigated how the perturbation modulated the effective connectivity for the early and late periods. Bayesian model comparisons suggested that different effective connectivity networks are engaged in these two periods. For the early period, we found that only a few cortico-cortical connections were modulated, while more complicated connectivity was identified in the cortical network during the late period with multiple modulated cortico-cortical connections. The limited early cortical network likely allows for a rapid muscle response without involving high-level cognitive processes, while the complexity of the late network may facilitate coordinated responses.

  6. A Dynamic Stackelberg Game of Supply Chain for a Corporate Social Responsibility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Massimiliano Ferrara

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we establish a dynamic game to allocate CSR (Corporate Social Responsibility to the members of a supply chain. We propose a model of a supply chain in a decentralized state which includes a supplier and a manufacturer. For analyzing supply chain performance in decentralized state and the relationships between the members of the supply chain, we formulate a model that crosses through multiperiods with the help of a dynamic discrete Stackelberg game which is made under two different information structures. We obtain an equilibrium point at which both the profits of members and the level of CSR taken up by supply chains are maximized.

  7. Dynamic Analysis of an Impulsively Controlled Predator-Prey Model with Holling Type IV Functional Response

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanzhen Wang

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The dynamic behavior of a predator-prey model with Holling type IV functional response is investigated with respect to impulsive control strategies. The model is analyzed to obtain the conditions under which the system is locally asymptotically stable and permanent. Existence of a positive periodic solution of the system and the boundedness of the system is also confirmed. Furthermore, numerical analysis is used to discover the influence of impulsive perturbations. The system is found to exhibit rich dynamics such as symmetry-breaking pitchfork bifurcation, chaos, and nonunique dynamics.

  8. Risk-constrained dynamic self-scheduling of a pumped-storage plant in the energy and ancillary service markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kazempour, S. Jalal; Moghaddam, M. Parsa; Haghifam, M.R.; Yousefi, G.R.

    2009-01-01

    This work addresses a new framework for self-scheduling of an individual price-taker pumped-storage plant in a day-ahead (DA) market. The goal is achieving the best trade-off between the expected profit and the risks when the plant participates in DA energy, spinning reserve and regulation markets. In this paper, a set of uncertainties including price forecasting errors and also the uncertainty of power delivery requests in the ancillary service markets are contemplated. Considering these uncertainties, a new approach is proposed which is called dynamic self-scheduling (DSS). This risk-constrained dynamic self-scheduling problem is therefore formulated and solved as a mixed integer programming (MIP) problem. Numerical results for a case study are discussed. (author)

  9. Dynamics of a viral infection model with delayed CTL response and immune circadian rhythm

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bai Zhenguo; Zhou Yicang

    2012-01-01

    This paper studies the global dynamics of a viral infection model that takes into account circadian rhythm and time delay in the CTL response. It is shown that the basic reproduction numbers, R 0 and R 1 , determine the outcome of viral infection. Numerical simulations demonstrate that the changes in the amplitude of lytic component can generate a variety of dynamical patterns, ranging from simple daily oscillation to multi-day dynamics and eventually chaos, whereas time delay can alter the period of oscillation for the larger level of periodic forcing. These results can help to explain the viral oscillation behaviors, which were observed in chronic HBV and HCV infection patients.

  10. Architecture for Integrated Medical Model Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaworske, D. A.; Myers, J. G.; Goodenow, D.; Young, M.; Arellano, J. D.

    2016-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a modeling tool used to predict potential outcomes of a complex system based on a statistical understanding of many initiating events. Utilizing a Monte Carlo method, thousands of instances of the model are considered and outcomes are collected. PRA is considered static, utilizing probabilities alone to calculate outcomes. Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment (dPRA) is an advanced concept where modeling predicts the outcomes of a complex system based not only on the probabilities of many initiating events, but also on a progression of dependencies brought about by progressing down a time line. Events are placed in a single time line, adding each event to a queue, as managed by a planner. Progression down the time line is guided by rules, as managed by a scheduler. The recently developed Integrated Medical Model (IMM) summarizes astronaut health as governed by the probabilities of medical events and mitigation strategies. Managing the software architecture process provides a systematic means of creating, documenting, and communicating a software design early in the development process. The software architecture process begins with establishing requirements and the design is then derived from the requirements.

  11. Legacy nutrient dynamics and patterns of catchment response under changing land use and management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Attinger, S.; Van, M. K.; Basu, N. B.

    2017-12-01

    Watersheds are complex heterogeneous systems that store, transform, and release water and nutrients under a broad distribution of both natural and anthropogenic controls. Many current watershed models, from complex numerical models to simpler reservoir-type models, are considered to be well-developed in their ability to predict fluxes of water and nutrients to streams and groundwater. They are generally less adept, however, at capturing watershed storage dynamics. In other words, many current models are run with an assumption of steady-state dynamics, and focus on nutrient flows rather than changes in nutrient stocks within watersheds. Although these commonly used modeling approaches may be able to adequately capture short-term watershed dynamics, they are unable to represent the clear nonlinearities or hysteresis responses observed in watersheds experiencing significant changes in nutrient inputs. To address such a lack, we have, in the present work, developed a parsimonious modeling approach designed to capture long-term catchment responses to spatial and temporal changes in nutrient inputs. In this approach, we conceptualize the catchment as a biogeochemical reactor that is driven by nutrient inputs, characterized internally by both biogeochemical degradation and residence or travel time distributions, resulting in a specific nutrient output. For the model simulations, we define a range of different scenarios to represent real-world changes in land use and management implemented to improve water quality. We then introduce the concept of state-space trajectories to describe system responses to these potential changes in anthropogenic forcings. We also increase model complexity, in a stepwise fashion, by dividing the catchment into multiple biogeochemical reactors, coupled in series or in parallel. Using this approach, we attempt to answer the following questions: (1) What level of model complexity is needed to capture observed system responses? (2) How can we

  12. System dynamic modelling to assess economic viability and risk trade-offs for ecological restoration in South Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crookes, D J; Blignaut, J N; de Wit, M P; Esler, K J; Le Maitre, D C; Milton, S J; Mitchell, S A; Cloete, J; de Abreu, P; Fourie nee Vlok, H; Gull, K; Marx, D; Mugido, W; Ndhlovu, T; Nowell, M; Pauw, M; Rebelo, A

    2013-05-15

    Can markets assist by providing support for ecological restoration, and if so, under what conditions? The first step in addressing this question is to develop a consistent methodology for economic evaluation of ecological restoration projects. A risk analysis process was followed in which a system dynamics model was constructed for eight diverse case study sites where ecological restoration is currently being pursued. Restoration costs vary across each of these sites, as do the benefits associated with restored ecosystem functioning. The system dynamics model simulates the ecological, hydrological and economic benefits of ecological restoration and informs a portfolio mapping exercise where payoffs are matched against the likelihood of success of a project, as well as a number of other factors (such as project costs and risk measures). This is the first known application that couples ecological restoration with system dynamics and portfolio mapping. The results suggest an approach that is able to move beyond traditional indicators of project success, since the effect of discounting is virtually eliminated. We conclude that systems dynamic modelling with portfolio mapping can guide decisions on when markets for restoration activities may be feasible. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. A deterministic and stochastic model for the system dynamics of tumor-immune responses to chemotherapy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xiangdong; Li, Qingze; Pan, Jianxin

    2018-06-01

    Modern medical studies show that chemotherapy can help most cancer patients, especially for those diagnosed early, to stabilize their disease conditions from months to years, which means the population of tumor cells remained nearly unchanged in quite a long time after fighting against immune system and drugs. In order to better understand the dynamics of tumor-immune responses under chemotherapy, deterministic and stochastic differential equation models are constructed to characterize the dynamical change of tumor cells and immune cells in this paper. The basic dynamical properties, such as boundedness, existence and stability of equilibrium points, are investigated in the deterministic model. Extended stochastic models include stochastic differential equations (SDEs) model and continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) model, which accounts for the variability in cellular reproduction, growth and death, interspecific competitions, and immune response to chemotherapy. The CTMC model is harnessed to estimate the extinction probability of tumor cells. Numerical simulations are performed, which confirms the obtained theoretical results.

  14. Amygdala and fusiform gyrus temporal dynamics: Responses to negative facial expressions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rauch Scott L

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The amygdala habituates in response to repeated human facial expressions; however, it is unclear whether this brain region habituates to schematic faces (i.e., simple line drawings or caricatures of faces. Using an fMRI block design, 16 healthy participants passively viewed repeated presentations of schematic and human neutral and negative facial expressions. Percent signal changes within anatomic regions-of-interest (amygdala and fusiform gyrus were calculated to examine the temporal dynamics of neural response and any response differences based on face type. Results The amygdala and fusiform gyrus had a within-run "U" response pattern of activity to facial expression blocks. The initial block within each run elicited the greatest activation (relative to baseline and the final block elicited greater activation than the preceding block. No significant differences between schematic and human faces were detected in the amygdala or fusiform gyrus. Conclusion The "U" pattern of response in the amygdala and fusiform gyrus to facial expressions suggests an initial orienting, habituation, and activation recovery in these regions. Furthermore, this study is the first to directly compare brain responses to schematic and human facial expressions, and the similarity in brain responses suggest that schematic faces may be useful in studying amygdala activation.

  15. Quantifying Intracranial Aneurysm Wall Permeability for Risk Assessment Using Dynamic Contrast-Enhanced MRI: A Pilot Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vakil, P; Ansari, S A; Cantrell, C G; Eddleman, C S; Dehkordi, F H; Vranic, J; Hurley, M C; Batjer, H H; Bendok, B R; Carroll, T J

    2015-05-01

    Pathological changes in the intracranial aneurysm wall may lead to increases in its permeability; however the clinical significance of such changes has not been explored. The purpose of this pilot study was to quantify intracranial aneurysm wall permeability (K(trans), VL) to contrast agent as a measure of aneurysm rupture risk and compare these parameters against other established measures of rupture risk. We hypothesized K(trans) would be associated with intracranial aneurysm rupture risk as defined by various anatomic, imaging, and clinical risk factors. Twenty-seven unruptured intracranial aneurysms in 23 patients were imaged with dynamic contrast-enhanced MR imaging, and wall permeability parameters (K(trans), VL) were measured in regions adjacent to the aneurysm wall and along the paired control MCA by 2 blinded observers. K(trans) and VL were evaluated as markers of rupture risk by comparing them against established clinical (symptomatic lesions) and anatomic (size, location, morphology, multiplicity) risk metrics. Interobserver agreement was strong as shown in regression analysis (R(2) > 0.84) and intraclass correlation (intraclass correlation coefficient >0.92), indicating that the K(trans) can be reliably assessed clinically. All intracranial aneurysms had a pronounced increase in wall permeability compared with the paired healthy MCA (P risk in anatomic (P = .02) and combined anatomic/clinical (P = .03) groups independent of size. We report the first evidence of dynamic contrast-enhanced MR imaging-modeled contrast permeability in intracranial aneurysms. We found that contrast agent permeability across the aneurysm wall correlated significantly with both aneurysm size and size-independent anatomic risk factors. In addition, K(trans) was a significant and size-independent predictor of morphologically and clinically defined high-risk aneurysms. © 2015 by American Journal of Neuroradiology.

  16. Dynamic bioactive stimuli-responsive polymeric surfaces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearson, Heather Marie

    This dissertation focuses on the design, synthesis, and development of antimicrobial and anticoagulant surfaces of polyethylene (PE), polypropylene (PP), and poly(tetrafluoroethylene) (PTFE) polymers. Aliphatic polymeric surfaces of PE and PP polymers functionalized using click chemistry reactions by the attachment of --COOH groups via microwave plasma reactions followed by functionalization with alkyne moieties. Azide containing ampicillin (AMP) was synthesized and subsequently clicked into the alkyne prepared PE and PP surfaces. Compared to non-functionalized PP and PE surfaces, the AMP clicked surfaces exhibited substantially enhanced antimicrobial activity against Staphylococcus aureus bacteria. To expand the biocompatibility of polymeric surface anticoagulant attributes, PE and PTFE surfaces were functionalized with pH-responsive poly(2-vinyl pyridine) (P2VP) and poly(acrylic acid) (PAA) polyelectrolyte tethers terminated with NH2 and COOH groups. The goal of these studies was to develop switchable stimuli-responsive polymeric surfaces that interact with biological environments and display simultaneous antimicrobial and anticoagulant properties. Antimicrobial AMP was covalently attached to --COOH terminal ends of protected PAA, while anticoagulant heparin (HEP) was attached to terminal --NH2 groups of P2VP. When pH 5.5, they collapse while the PAA segments extend. Such surfaces, when exposed to Staphylococcus aureus, inhibit bacterial growth due to the presence of AMP, as well as are effective anticoagulants due to the presence of covalently attached HEP. Comparison of these "dynamic" pH responsive surfaces with "static" surfaces terminated with AMP entities show significant enhancement of longevity and surface activity against microbial film formation. The last portion of this dissertation focuses on the covalent attachment of living T1 and Φ11 bacteriophages (phages) on PE and PTFE surface. This was accomplished by carbodiimide coupling between --COOH

  17. Pressurization Risk Assessment of CO2 Reservoirs Utilizing Design of Experiments and Response Surface Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guyant, E.; Han, W. S.; Kim, K. Y.; Park, E.; Han, K.

    2015-12-01

    Monitoring of pressure buildup can provide explicit information on reservoir integrity and is an appealing tool, however pressure variation is dependent on a variety of factors causing high uncertainty in pressure predictions. This work evaluated pressurization of a reservoir system in the presence of leakage pathways as well as exploring the effects of compartmentalization of the reservoir utilizing design of experiments (Definitive Screening, Box Behnken, Central Composite, and Latin Hypercube designs) and response surface methods. Two models were developed, 1) an idealized injection scenario in order to evaluate the performance of multiple designs, and 2) a complex injection scenario implementing the best performing design to investigate pressurization of the reservoir system. A holistic evaluation of scenario 1, determined that the Central Composite design would be used for the complex injection scenario. The complex scenario evaluated 5 risk factors: reservoir, seal, leakage pathway and fault permeabilities, and horizontal position of the pathway. A total of 60 response surface models (RSM) were developed for the complex scenario with an average R2 of 0.95 and a NRMSE of 0.067. Sensitivity to the input factors was dynamic through space and time; at the earliest time (0.05 years) the reservoir permeability was dominant, and for later times (>0.5 years) the fault permeability became dominant for all locations. The RSM's were then used to conduct a Monte Carlo Analysis to further analyze pressurization risks, identifying the P10, P50, P90 values. This identified the in zone (lower) P90 values as 2.16, 1.77, and 1.53 MPa and above zone values of 1.35, 1.23, 1.09 MPa for monitoring locations 1, 2, and 3, respectively. In summary, the design of experiments and response surface methods allowed for an efficient sensitivity and uncertainty analysis to be conducted permitting a complete evaluation of the pressurization across the entire parameter space.

  18. EEG neural oscillatory dynamics reveal semantic and response conflict at difference levels of conflict awareness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Jun; Zhang, Qinglin; Van Gaal, Simon

    2015-07-14

    Although previous work has shown that conflict can be detected in the absence of awareness, it is unknown how different sources of conflict (i.e., semantic, response) are processed in the human brain and whether these processes are differently modulated by conflict awareness. To explore this issue, we extracted oscillatory power dynamics from electroencephalographic (EEG) data recorded while human participants performed a modified version of the Stroop task. Crucially, in this task conflict awareness was manipulated by masking a conflict-inducing color word preceding a color patch target. We isolated semantic from response conflict by introducing four color words/patches, of which two were matched to the same response. We observed that both semantic as well as response conflict were associated with mid-frontal theta-band and parietal alpha-band power modulations, irrespective of the level of conflict awareness (high vs. low), although awareness of conflict increased these conflict-related power dynamics. These results show that both semantic and response conflict can be processed in the human brain and suggest that the neural oscillatory mechanisms in EEG reflect mainly "domain general" conflict processing mechanisms, instead of conflict source specific effects.

  19. EEG neural oscillatory dynamics reveal semantic and response conflict at difference levels of conflict awareness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Jun; Zhang, Qinglin; Van Gaal, Simon

    2015-01-01

    Although previous work has shown that conflict can be detected in the absence of awareness, it is unknown how different sources of conflict (i.e., semantic, response) are processed in the human brain and whether these processes are differently modulated by conflict awareness. To explore this issue, we extracted oscillatory power dynamics from electroencephalographic (EEG) data recorded while human participants performed a modified version of the Stroop task. Crucially, in this task conflict awareness was manipulated by masking a conflict-inducing color word preceding a color patch target. We isolated semantic from response conflict by introducing four color words/patches, of which two were matched to the same response. We observed that both semantic as well as response conflict were associated with mid-frontal theta-band and parietal alpha-band power modulations, irrespective of the level of conflict awareness (high vs. low), although awareness of conflict increased these conflict-related power dynamics. These results show that both semantic and response conflict can be processed in the human brain and suggest that the neural oscillatory mechanisms in EEG reflect mainly “domain general” conflict processing mechanisms, instead of conflict source specific effects. PMID:26169473

  20. Further optimization studies of experimental dynamic responses measured on the HTGC Dragon reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cummins, J.D.

    1968-04-01

    This report considers some measurements made of the dynamics of the HTGC Dragon reactor and the optimization of a mathematical model which represents the reactor, by altering the parameters until a least squares fit between the experimental responses and the mathematical model is obtained. The experimental information was processed in various ways. The experimental response to an impulse, step or periodic sine wave change in reactivity was processed as an impulse, step or periodic sine wave response respectively and compared with a similar response from the model. In other studies the result of a binary cross correlation experiment (effectively an impulse response input) was processed as a frequency response and this experimental frequency response was compared with the frequency response from the mathematical model. It was possible therefore to compare the optimum values of parameters, obtained for different forms of perturbing signal and for different methods of processing and to relate the optima obtained to the problem of parameter estimation. (author)

  1. The dynamics of injection drug users' personal networks and HIV risk behaviors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costenbader, Elizabeth C; Astone, Nan M; Latkin, Carl A

    2006-07-01

    While studies of the social networks of injection drug users (IDUs) have provided insight into how the structures of interpersonal relationships among IDUs affect HIV risk behaviors, the majority of these studies have been cross-sectional. The present study examined the dynamics of IDUs' social networks and HIV risk behaviors over time. Using data from a longitudinal HIV-intervention study conducted in Baltimore, MD, this study assessed changes in the composition of the personal networks of 409 IDUs. We used a multi-nomial logistic regression analysis to assess the association between changes in network composition and simultaneous changes in levels of injection HIV risk behaviors. Using the regression parameters generated by the multi-nomial model, we estimated the predicted probability of being in each of four HIV risk behavior change groups. Compared to the base case, individuals who reported an entirely new set of drug-using network contacts at follow-up were more than three times as likely to be in the increasing risk group. In contrast, reporting all new non-drug-using contacts at follow-up increased the likelihood of being in the stable low-risk group by almost 50% and decreased the probability of being in the consistently high-risk group by more than 70%. The findings from this study show that, over and above IDUs' baseline characteristics, changes in their personal networks are associated with changes in individuals' risky injection behaviors. They also suggest that interventions aimed at reducing HIV risk among IDUs might benefit from increasing IDUs' social contacts with individuals who are not drug users.

  2. A Reduced-Order Model for Evaluating the Dynamic Response of Multilayer Plates to Impulsive Loads

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-04-12

    A REDUCED-ORDER MODEL FOR EVALUATING THE DYNAMIC RESPONSE OF MULTILAYER PLATES TO IMPULSIVE LOADS Weiran Jiang, Alyssa Bennett, Nickolas...innovative multilayer materials or structures to optimize the dynamic performance as a mechanism to absorb and spread energy from an impulsive load...models. • Optimizing the structural weight and levels of protection of the multilayer plates with a good combination of materials. Technical Approach 2016

  3. Segmented Symbolic Dynamics for Risk Stratification in Patients with Ischemic Heart Failure, Cardiovascular Engineering and Technology

    OpenAIRE

    Voss, Andreas; Schroeder, Rico; Caminal Magrans, Pere; Vallverdú Ferrer, Montserrat; Brunel, Helena; Cygankiewicz, I.; Vázquez, Rafael; Bayes de Luna, Antonio

    2010-01-01

    Chronic heart failure (CHF) is recognized as major and escalating public health problem. Approximately 69% of CHF patients suffer from cardiac death within 5 years after the initial diagnosis. Until now, no generally accepted ECG risk predictors in CHF patients are available. The objective of this study was to investigate the suitability of the new developed non-linear method segmented symbolic dynamics (SSD) for risk stratification in patients with ischemic cardiomyop...

  4. CFD: computational fluid dynamics or confounding factor dissemination? The role of hemodynamics in intracranial aneurysm rupture risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiang, J; Tutino, V M; Snyder, K V; Meng, H

    2014-10-01

    Image-based computational fluid dynamics holds a prominent position in the evaluation of intracranial aneurysms, especially as a promising tool to stratify rupture risk. Current computational fluid dynamics findings correlating both high and low wall shear stress with intracranial aneurysm growth and rupture puzzle researchers and clinicians alike. These conflicting findings may stem from inconsistent parameter definitions, small datasets, and intrinsic complexities in intracranial aneurysm growth and rupture. In Part 1 of this 2-part review, we proposed a unifying hypothesis: both high and low wall shear stress drive intracranial aneurysm growth and rupture through mural cell-mediated and inflammatory cell-mediated destructive remodeling pathways, respectively. In the present report, Part 2, we delineate different wall shear stress parameter definitions and survey recent computational fluid dynamics studies, in light of this mechanistic heterogeneity. In the future, we expect that larger datasets, better analyses, and increased understanding of hemodynamic-biologic mechanisms will lead to more accurate predictive models for intracranial aneurysm risk assessment from computational fluid dynamics. © 2014 by American Journal of Neuroradiology.

  5. Non-linear dynamic response of reactor containment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takemori, T.; Sotomura, K.; Yamada, M.

    1975-01-01

    A computer program was developed to investigate the elasto-plastic behavior of structures. This program is outlined and the problems of non-linear response of structures are discussed. Since the mode superposition method is only valid in an elastic analysis, the direct integration method was adopted here. As the sample model, an actual reactor containment (reactor building) of PWR plant was adopted. This building consists of three components, that is, a concrete internal structure, a steel containment vessel and a concrete outer shield wall. These components are resting on a rigid foundation mat. Therefore they were modeled with a lumped mass model respectively and coupled on the foundation. The following assumptions were employed to establish the properties of dynamic model: rocking and swaying springs of soil can be obtained from an elastic half-space solution, and the hysteretic characteristic of springs is bi-linear; springs connecting each mass are dealt with shear beams so that both bending and shear deflections can be included (Hysteretic characteristics of springs are linear, bi-linear and tri-linear for the internal structure, the containment vessel and the outer shield wall, respectively); generally, each damping coefficient is given for each mode in modal superposition (However, a damping matrix must be made directly in a non-linear response). Therefore the damping matrix of the model was made by combining the damping matrices [C] of each component obtained by Caughy's method and a damping value of the rocking and swaying by the half-space solution. On the basis of above conditions, the non-linear response of the structure was obtained and the difference between elastic and elasto-plastic analysis is presented

  6. Research on Investment Risk Management of Chinese Prefabricated Construction Projects Based on a System Dynamics Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming Li

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Prefabricated construction, a new direction for the future development of the Chinese construction industry, can maximize the requirements of “green”. As a new form of green building, prefabricated construction is of particular interest. On account of the immature development of the green building market in China, the investment risk for prefabricated construction is higher than for traditional architecture. Hence, it is especially important to improve its investment risk identification and management. This study adopts system dynamics and builds a risk identification feedback chart and risk flow chart, to comprehensively identify investment risks that projects in China may face and to process quantitative estimation of investment risk factors. Key factors influencing project investment risks are found, and corresponding measures are pointedly proposed. This paper may provide guidance and a reference for promoting the sound development of prefabricated construction in China.

  7. Data Mining of Historical Human Data to Assess the Risk of Injury due to Dynamic Loads

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wells, Jesica; Somers, Jeffrey T.; Newby, N.; Gernhardt, Michael

    2014-01-01

    The NASA Occupant Protection Group is charged with ensuring crewmembers are protected during all dynamic phases of spaceflight. Previous work with outside experts has led to the development of a definition of acceptable risk (DAR) for space capsule vehicles. The DAR defines allowable probability rates for various categories of injuries. An important question is how to validate these probabilities for a given vehicle. One approach is to impact test human volunteers under projected nominal landing loads. The main drawback is the large number of subject tests required to attain a reasonable level of confidence that the injury probability rates would meet those outlined in the DAR. An alternative is to mine existing databases containing human responses to impact. Testing an anthropomorphic test device (ATD) at the same human-exposure levels could yield a range of ATD responses that would meet DAR. As one aspect of future vehicle validation, the ATD could be tested in the vehicle's seat and suit configuration at nominal landing loads and compared with the ATD responses supported by the human data set. This approach could reduce the number of human-volunteer tests NASA would need to conduct to validate that a vehicle meets occupant protection standards. METHODS: The U.S. Air Force has recorded hundreds of human responses to frontal, lateral, and spinal impacts at many acceleration levels and pulse durations. All of this data are stored on the Collaborative Biomechanics Data Network (CBDN), which is maintained by the Wright Patterson Air Force Base (WPAFB). The test device for human occupant restraint (THOR) ATD was impact tested on WPAFB's horizontal impulse accelerator (HIA) matching human-volunteer exposures on the HIA to 5 frontal and 3 spinal loading conditions. No human injuries occurred as a result of these impact conditions. Peak THOR response variables for neck axial tension and compression, and thoracic-spine axial compression were collected. Maximal chest

  8. Effect of fuel assembly mechanical design changes on dynamic response of reactor pressure vessel system under extreme loadings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bhandari, D.R.; Hankinson, M.F.

    1993-01-01

    This paper presents the results of a study to assess the effect of fuel assembly mechanical design changes on the dynamic response of a pressurized water reactor vessel and reactor internals under Loss-Of-Coolant Accident (LOCA) conditions. The results of this study show that the dynamic response of the reactor vessel internals and the core under extreme loadings, such as LOCA, is very sensitive to fuel assembly mechanical design changes. (author)

  9. Spatiotemporal Modeling of Community Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-03-01

    Ertugay, and Sebnem Duzgun, “Exploratory and Inferential Methods for Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Residential Fire Clustering in Urban Areas,” Fire ...response in communities.”26 In “Exploratory and Inferential Methods for Spatio-temporal Analysis of Residential Fire Clustering in Urban Areas,” Ceyhan...of fire resources spread across the community. Spatiotemporal modeling shows that actualized risk is dynamic and relatively patterned. Though

  10. Modeling the Response of Human Altered Natural Barrier Island Dynamics Along Assateague Island National Seashore to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carroll, A.; McNamara, D.; Schupp, C.

    2009-12-01

    Assateague Island National Seashore comprises a long barrier island located off the coasts of Maryland and Virginia. Geological evidence suggests that over recent centuries Assateague Island has steadily transgressed up the continental shelf in response to rising sea level. More recently, the natural barrier island dynamics governing Assateague’s evolution have been altered by human activity in three ways: the construction of a jetty and the subsequent interruption of alongshore sediment transport on the north end of Assateague and both the ongoing and abandoned maintenance of a continuous dune system along portions of Assateague with the concomitant modification to overwash dynamics. It is unclear how these varied human alterations to the natural barrier island dynamics will influence the response of Assateague to climate change induced shifts in forcing such as increased rates of sea level rise and changing storm patterns. We use LIDAR detected morphological data of Assateague Island as initial conditions in an alongshore extended model for barrier island dynamics including beach erosion, island overwash and inlet cutting during storms, and beach accretion, tidal delta growth and dune and vegetation growth between storms to explore the response of the various human altered segments of Assateague Island to forcing changes. Traditional models exploring barrier island evolution contain only cross-shore dynamics therefore lacking important alongshore-spatial dynamics in aeolian and surf zone sediment transport. Results show that including alongshore dynamics alter the steady state of Assateague relative to simulations that only include cross-shore dynamics. Results will also be presented exploring the potential for regime shifts in steady state behavior under various scenarios for the rate of sea level rise and storm climate and varying management strategies.

  11. Proposal of a method for evaluating tsunami risk using response-surface methodology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fukutani, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Information on probabilistic tsunami inundation hazards is needed to define and evaluate tsunami risk. Several methods for calculating these hazards have been proposed (e.g. Løvholt et al. (2012), Thio (2012), Fukutani et al. (2014), Goda et al. (2015)). However, these methods are inefficient, and their calculation cost is high, since they require multiple tsunami numerical simulations, therefore lacking versatility. In this study, we proposed a simpler method for tsunami risk evaluation using response-surface methodology. Kotani et al. (2016) proposed an evaluation method for the probabilistic distribution of tsunami wave-height using a response-surface methodology. We expanded their study and developed a probabilistic distribution of tsunami inundation depth. We set the depth (x1) and the slip (x2) of an earthquake fault as explanatory variables and tsunami inundation depth (y) as an object variable. Subsequently, tsunami risk could be evaluated by conducting a Monte Carlo simulation, assuming that the generation probability of an earthquake follows a Poisson distribution, the probability distribution of tsunami inundation depth follows the distribution derived from a response-surface, and the damage probability of a target follows a log normal distribution. We applied the proposed method to a wood building located on the coast of Tokyo Bay. We implemented a regression analysis based on the results of 25 tsunami numerical calculations and developed a response-surface, which was defined as y=ax1+bx2+c (a:0.2615, b:3.1763, c=-1.1802). We assumed proper probabilistic distribution for earthquake generation, inundation height, and vulnerability. Based on these probabilistic distributions, we conducted Monte Carlo simulations of 1,000,000 years. We clarified that the expected damage probability of the studied wood building is 22.5%, assuming that an earthquake occurs. The proposed method is therefore a useful and simple way to evaluate tsunami risk using a response

  12. Using dynamic walking models to identify factors that contribute to increased risk of falling in older adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roos, Paulien E; Dingwell, Jonathan B

    2013-10-01

    Falls are common in older adults. The most common cause of falls is tripping while walking. Simulation studies demonstrated that older adults may be restricted by lower limb strength and movement speed to regain balance after a trip. This review examines how modeling approaches can be used to determine how different measures predict actual fall risk and what some of the causal mechanisms of fall risk are. Although increased gait variability predicts increased fall risk experimentally, it is not clear which variability measures could best be used, or what magnitude of change corresponded with increased fall risk. With a simulation study we showed that the increase in fall risk with a certain increase in gait variability was greatly influenced by the initial level of variability. Gait variability can therefore not easily be used to predict fall risk. We therefore explored other measures that may be related to fall risk and investigated the relationship between stability measures such as Floquet multipliers and local divergence exponents and actual fall risk in a dynamic walking model. We demonstrated that short-term local divergence exponents were a good early predictor for fall risk. Neuronal noise increases with age. It has however not been fully understood if increased neuronal noise would cause an increased fall risk. With our dynamic walking model we showed that increased neuronal noise caused increased fall risk. Although people who are at increased risk of falling reduce their walking speed it had been questioned whether this slower speed would actually cause a reduced fall risk. With our model we demonstrated that a reduced walking speed caused a reduction in fall risk. This may be due to the decreased kinematic variability as a result of the reduced signal-dependent noise of the smaller muscle forces that are required for slower. These insights may be used in the development of fall prevention programs in order to better identify those at increased risk of

  13. Using Dynamic Walking Models to Identify Factors that Contribute to Increased Risk of Falling in Older Adults

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roos, Paulien E.; Dingwell, Jonathan B.

    2013-01-01

    Falls are common in older adults. The most common cause of falls is tripping while walking. Simulation studies demonstrated that older adults may be restricted by lower limb strength and movement speed to regain balance after a trip. This review examines how modeling approaches can be used to determine how different measures predict actual fall risk and what some of the causal mechanisms of fall risk are. Although increased gait variability predicts increased fall risk experimentally, it is not clear which variability measures could best be used, or what magnitude of change corresponded with increased fall risk. With a simulation study we showed that the increase in fall risk with a certain increase in gait variability was greatly influenced by the initial level of variability. Gait variability can therefore not easily be used to predict fall risk. We therefore explored other measures that may be related to fall risk and investigated the relationship between stability measures such as Floquet multipliers and local divergence exponents and actual fall risk in a dynamic walking model. We demonstrated that short-term local divergence exponents were a good early predictor for fall risk. Neuronal noise increases with age. It has however not been fully understood if increased neuronal noise would cause an increased fall risk. With our dynamic walking model we showed that increased neuronal noise caused increased fall risk. Although people who are at increased risk of falling reduce their walking speed it had been questioned whether this slower speed would actually cause a reduced fall risk. With our model we demonstrated that a reduced walking speed caused a reduction in fall risk. This may be due to the decreased kinematic variability as a result of the reduced signal-dependent noise of the smaller muscle forces that are required for slower. These insights may be used in the development of fall prevention programs in order to better identify those at increased risk of

  14. School Crisis Management: A Model of Dynamic Responsiveness to Crisis Life Cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liou, Yi-Hwa

    2015-01-01

    Purpose: This study aims to analyze a school's crisis management and explore emerging aspects of its response to a school crisis. Traditional linear modes of analysis often fail to address complex crisis situations. The present study applied a dynamic crisis life cycle model that draws on chaos and complexity theory to a crisis management case,…

  15. Dynamic response of SWEMAAIR 300 thermal anemometer with SWA-01 velocity transducer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Melikov, A K; Popiolek, Z

    1996-06-01

    The objective of this study is to identify the dynamic response of the SwemaAir 300 thermal anemometer to downward airflow with different amplitude and frequency of the velocity fluctuations and changing direction. An important aim is to find to what extend the accuracy of the velocity measurements is effected at the above described conditions. (au)

  16. Evidence Report: Risk of Crew Adverse Health Event Due to Altered Immune Response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crucian, Brian; Sams, Clarence F.

    2013-01-01

    The Risk of Crew Adverse Health Event Due to Altered Immune Response is identified by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Human Research Program (HRP) as a recognized risk to human health and performance in space. The HRP Program Requirements Document (PRD) defines these risks. This Evidence Report provides a summary of the evidence that has been used to identify and characterize this risk. It is known that human immune function is altered in- and post-flight, but it is unclear at present if such alterations lead to increased susceptibility to disease. Reactivation of latent viruses has been documented in crewmembers, although this reactivation has not been directly correlated with immune changes or with observed diseases. As described in this report, further research is required to better characterize the relationships between altered immune response and susceptibility to disease during and after spaceflight. This is particularly important for future deep-space exploration missions.

  17. Probabilistic risk assessment modeling of digital instrumentation and control systems using two dynamic methodologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aldemir, T., E-mail: aldemir.1@osu.ed [Ohio State University, Nuclear Engineering Program, Columbus, OH 43210 (United States); Guarro, S. [ASCA, Inc., 1720 S. Catalina Avenue, Suite 220, Redondo Beach, CA 90277-5501 (United States); Mandelli, D. [Ohio State University, Nuclear Engineering Program, Columbus, OH 43210 (United States); Kirschenbaum, J. [Ohio State University, Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Columbus, OH 43210 (United States); Mangan, L.A. [Ohio State University, Nuclear Engineering Program, Columbus, OH 43210 (United States); Bucci, P. [Ohio State University, Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Columbus, OH 43210 (United States); Yau, M. [ASCA, Inc., 1720 S. Catalina Avenue, Suite 220, Redondo Beach, CA 90277-5501 (United States); Ekici, E. [Ohio State University, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Columbus, OH 43210 (United States); Miller, D.W.; Sun, X. [Ohio State University, Nuclear Engineering Program, Columbus, OH 43210 (United States); Arndt, S.A. [U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC 20555-0001 (United States)

    2010-10-15

    The Markov/cell-to-cell mapping technique (CCMT) and the dynamic flowgraph methodology (DFM) are two system logic modeling methodologies that have been proposed to address the dynamic characteristics of digital instrumentation and control (I and C) systems and provide risk-analytical capabilities that supplement those provided by traditional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) techniques for nuclear power plants. Both methodologies utilize a discrete state, multi-valued logic representation of the digital I and C system. For probabilistic quantification purposes, both techniques require the estimation of the probabilities of basic system failure modes, including digital I and C software failure modes, that appear in the prime implicants identified as contributors to a given system event of interest. As in any other system modeling process, the accuracy and predictive value of the models produced by the two techniques, depend not only on the intrinsic features of the modeling paradigm, but also and to a considerable extent on information and knowledge available to the analyst, concerning the system behavior and operation rules under normal and off-nominal conditions, and the associated controlled/monitored process dynamics. The application of the two methodologies is illustrated using a digital feedwater control system (DFWCS) similar to that of an operating pressurized water reactor. This application was carried out to demonstrate how the use of either technique, or both, can facilitate the updating of an existing nuclear power plant PRA model following an upgrade of the instrumentation and control system from analog to digital. Because of scope limitations, the focus of the demonstration of the methodologies was intentionally limited to aspects of digital I and C system behavior for which probabilistic data was on hand or could be generated within the existing project bounds of time and resources. The data used in the probabilistic quantification portion of the

  18. Computational Fluid Dynamic Analysis of the Left Atrial Appendage to Predict Thrombosis Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giorgia Maria Bosi

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available During Atrial Fibrillation (AF more than 90% of the left atrial thrombi responsible for thromboembolic events originate in the left atrial appendage (LAA, a complex small sac protruding from the left atrium (LA. Current available treatments to prevent thromboembolic events are oral anticoagulation, surgical LAA exclusion, or percutaneous LAA occlusion. However, the mechanism behind thrombus formation in the LAA is poorly understood. The aim of this work is to analyse the hemodynamic behaviour in four typical LAA morphologies - “Chicken wing”, “Cactus”, “Windsock” and “Cauliflower” - to identify potential relationships between the different shapes and the risk of thrombotic events. Computerised tomography (CT images from four patients with no LA pathology were segmented to derive the 3D anatomical shape of LAA and LA. Computational Fluid Dynamic (CFD analyses based on the patient-specific anatomies were carried out imposing both healthy and AF flow conditions. Velocity and shear strain rate (SSR were analysed for all cases. Residence time in the different LAA regions was estimated with a virtual contrast agent washing out. CFD results indicate that both velocity and SSR decrease along the LAA, from the ostium to the tip, at each instant in the cardiac cycle, thus making the LAA tip more prone to fluid stagnation, and therefore to thrombus formation. Velocity and SSR also decrease from normal to AF conditions. After four cardiac cycles, the lowest washout of contrast agent was observed for the Cauliflower morphology (3.27% of residual contrast in AF, and the highest for the Windsock (0.56% of residual contrast in AF. This suggests that the former is expected to be associated with a higher risk of thrombosis, in agreement with clinical reports in the literature. The presented computational models highlight the major role played by the LAA morphology on the hemodynamics, both in normal and AF conditions, revealing the potential

  19. Epigenetic Mechanisms Shape the Biological Response to Trauma and Risk for PTSD: A Critical Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Morgan Heinzelmann

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD develops in approximately one-quarter of trauma-exposed individuals, leading us and others to question the mechanisms underlying this heterogeneous response to trauma. We suggest that the reasons for the heterogeneity relate to a complex interaction between genes and the environment, shaping each individual’s recovery trajectory based on both historical and trauma-specific variables. Epigenetic modifications provide a unique opportunity to elucidate how preexisting risk factors may contribute to PTSD risk through changes in the methylation of DNA. Preexisting risks for PTSD, including depression, stress, and trauma, result in differential DNA methylation of endocrine genes, which may then result in a different biological responses to trauma and subsequently a greater risk for PTSD onset. Although these relationships are complex and currently inadequately described, we provide a critical review of recent studies to examine how differences in genetic and proteomic biomarkers shape an individual’s vulnerability to PTSD development, thereby contributing to a heterogeneous response to trauma.

  20. On the dynamic response of pressure transmission lines in the research of helium-charged free piston Stirling engines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Eric L.; Dudenhoefer, James E.

    1989-01-01

    The signal distortion inherent to pressure transmission lines in free-piston Stirling engine research is discussed. Based on results from classical analysis, guidelines are formulated to describe the dynamic response properties of a volume-terminated transmission tube for applications involving the helium-charged free-piston Stirling engines. The underdamped flow regime is described, the primary resonance frequency is derived, and the pressure phase and amplitude distortion are discussed. The scope and limitation of the dynamic response analysis are considered.