Murach, Michelle M; Kang, Yun-Seok; Goldman, Samuel D; Schafman, Michelle A; Schlecht, Stephen H; Moorhouse, Kevin; Bolte, John H; Agnew, Amanda M
The human thorax is commonly injured in motor vehicle crashes, and despite advancements in occupant safety rib fractures are highly prevalent. The objective of this study was to quantify the ability of gross and cross-sectional geometry, separately and in combination, to explain variation of human rib structural properties. One hundred and twenty-two whole mid-level ribs from 76 fresh post-mortem human subjects were tested in a dynamic frontal impact scenario. Structural properties (peak force and stiffness) were successfully predicted (p rib cross-sectional geometry obtained via direct histological imaging (total area, cortical area, and section modulus) and were improved further when utilizing a combination of cross-sectional and gross geometry (robusticity, whole bone strength index). Additionally, preliminary application of a novel, adaptive thresholding technique, allowed for total area and robusticity to be measured on a subsample of standard clinical CT scans with varied success. These results can be used to understand variation in individual rib response to frontal loading as well as identify important geometric parameters, which could ultimately improve injury criteria as well as the biofidelity of anthropomorphic test devices (ATDs) and finite element (FE) models of the human thorax.
Warner, F [Cremer and Warner (UK)
A discussion of nuclear power and public acceptability can quite properly begin with a general consideration of the nature of response to risk. Response follows perception, and builds up from the individual through group response to the judgement of society expressed in governmental decisions on what is acceptable. Various types of risk, and public reaction, are discussed.
Warner, F W
A discussion of nuclear power and public acceptability can quite properly begin with a general consideration of the nature of response to risk. Response follows perception and builds up from individual through group response to the judgement of society expressed in governmental decisions on what is acceptable. The subject is analysed in some detail, with examples.
Mizuno, Kiyonori; Andrish, Jack T; van den Bogert, Antonie J; McLean, Scott G
While gender-based differences in knee joint anatomies/laxities are well documented, the potential for them to precipitate gender-dimorphic ACL loading and resultant injury risk has not been considered. To this end, we generated gender-specific models of ACL strain as a function of any six degrees of freedom (6DOF) knee joint load state via a combined cadaveric and analytical approach. Continuously varying joint forces and torques were applied to five male and five female cadaveric specimens and recorded along with synchronous knee flexion and ACL strain data. All data (approximately 10,000 samples) were submitted to specimen-specific regression analyses, affording ACL strain predictions as a function of the combined 6 DOF knee loads. Following individual model verifications, generalized gender-specific models were generated and subjected to 6 DOF external load scenarios consistent with both a clinical examination and a dynamic sports maneuver. The ensuing model-based strain predictions were subsequently examined for gender-based discrepancies. Male and female specimen-specific models predicted ACL strain within 0.51%+/-0.10% and 0.52%+/-0.07% of the measured data respectively, and explained more than 75% of the associated variance in each case. Predicted female ACL strains were also significantly larger than respective male values for both simulated 6 DOF load scenarios. Outcomes suggest that the female ACL will rupture in response to comparatively smaller external load applications. Future work must address the underlying anatomical/laxity contributions to knee joint mechanical and resultant ACL loading, ultimately affording prevention strategies that may cater to individual joint vulnerabilities.
Martin, J.; Gordon, P.; Fitch, K.
Palmer, M S; Fieberg, J; Swanson, A; Kosmala, M; Packer, C
Ambiguous empirical support for 'landscapes of fear' in natural systems may stem from failure to consider dynamic temporal changes in predation risk. The lunar cycle dramatically alters night-time visibility, with low luminosity increasing hunting success of African lions. We used camera-trap data from Serengeti National Park to examine nocturnal anti-predator behaviours of four herbivore species. Interactions between predictable fluctuations in night-time luminosity and the underlying risk-resource landscape shaped herbivore distribution, herding propensity and the incidence of 'relaxed' behaviours. Buffalo responded least to temporal risk cues and minimised risk primarily through spatial redistribution. Gazelle and zebra made decisions based on current light levels and lunar phase, and wildebeest responded to lunar phase alone. These three species avoided areas where likelihood of encountering lions was high and changed their behaviours in risky areas to minimise predation threat. These patterns support the hypothesis that fear landscapes vary heterogeneously in both space and time. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.
There is little correlation between public response to perceived risks and the life-expectancy statistics for hazardous occupations. Case studies show that the public reacts more strongly to conflicting information from the warnings of experts and the media, giving more credence to individual situations than to statistical probabilities. The impact of a large-scale accident intensifies the perception of risk even though the situation may be safer over time. These factors affect the public's ability to accept nuclear power and its insistence on public debate, which may shift from the area of facts and documentation to that of values. Decision makers may need to compromise by shifting expenditures to actions that involve low levels of risk. 2 references, 1 figure, 2 tables. (DCK)
Denman, Matthew R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Ames, Arlo Leroy [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)
Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is the primary tool used to risk-inform nuclear power regulatory and licensing activities. Risk-informed regulations are intended to reduce inherent conservatism in regulatory metrics (e.g., allowable operating conditions and technical specifications) which are built into the regulatory framework by quantifying both the total risk profile as well as the change in the risk profile caused by an event or action (e.g., in-service inspection procedures or power uprates). Dynamical Systems (DS) analysis has been used to understand unintended time-dependent feedbacks in both industrial and organizational settings. In dynamical systems analysis, feedback loops can be characterized and studied as a function of time to describe the changes to the reliability of plant Structures, Systems and Components (SSCs). While DS has been used in many subject areas, some even within the PRA community, it has not been applied toward creating long-time horizon, dynamic PRAs (with time scales ranging between days and decades depending upon the analysis). Understanding slowly developing dynamic effects, such as wear-out, on SSC reliabilities may be instrumental in ensuring a safely and reliably operating nuclear fleet. Improving the estimation of a plant's continuously changing risk profile will allow for more meaningful risk insights, greater stakeholder confidence in risk insights, and increased operational flexibility.
Hildebrandt, Thomas; Mukkamala, Raghava Rao
We present distributed dynamic condition response structures as a declarative process model inspired by the workflow language employed by our industrial partner and conservatively generalizing labelled event structures. The model adds to event structures the possibility to 1) finitely specify...... as a labelled transition system. Exploration of the relationship between dynamic condition response structures and traditional models for concurrency, application to more complex scenarios, and further extensions of the model is left to future work....
The author, vice-president of the Federal Constitutional Court, delivered this opening address at the international symposium on nuclear liability held in Munich in September 1984 by OECD/NEA and IAEA. He starts by asking: Where does danger begin, where does risk end. It is the true and original task of the state to keep damage away from its citizens: this entails the obligation for additional garantees - not withstanding an almost greatest possible degree of safety - to at least helpfully compensate damage incurred, should such damage arise. In case of really severe accidents the essential thing is not the operator's liability but the entry of the state into that obligation, and this fact remains unchanged even if the maximum limits of liability were raised or in case of their removal. Therefore it is not necessary to be cautious about the question of unlimited liability, i.e. the unlimited entry of the state into such obligations, especially as all those responsible are convinced that there is practically no risk of that contingency occurring. (HSCH) [de
Hildebrandt, Thomas; Mukkamala, Raghava Rao; Slaats, Tijs
We present an extension of the recently introduced declarative process model Dynamic Condition Response Graphs ( DCR Graphs) to allow nested subgraphs and a new milestone relation between events. The extension was developed during a case study carried out jointly with our industrial partner...
Koop, Gregory J; Johnson, Joseph G
The ubiquity of psychological process models requires an increased degree of sophistication in the methods and metrics that we use to evaluate them. We contribute to this venture by capitalizing on recent work in cognitive science analyzing response dynamics, which shows that the bearing information processing dynamics have on intended action is also revealed in the motor system. This decidedly "embodied" view suggests that researchers are missing out on potential dependent variables with which to evaluate their models-those associated with the motor response that produces a choice. The current work develops a method for collecting and analyzing such data in the domain of decision making. We first validate this method using widely normed stimuli from the International Affective Picture System (Experiment 1), and demonstrate that curvature in response trajectories provides a metric of the competition between choice options. We next extend the method to risky decision making (Experiment 2) and develop predictions for three popular classes of process model. The data provided by response dynamics demonstrate that choices contrary to the maxim of risk seeking in losses and risk aversion in gains may be the product of at least one "online" preference reversal, and can thus begin to discriminate amongst the candidate models. Finally, we incorporate attentional data collected via eye-tracking (Experiment 3) to develop a formal computational model of joint information sampling and preference accumulation. In sum, we validate response dynamics for use in preferential choice tasks and demonstrate the unique conclusions afforded by response dynamics over and above traditional methods. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Cudlin, R.; Hosford, S.; Mattu, R.; Wichman, K.
The NRC has historically required that the structural/mechanical responses due to various accident loads and loads caused by natural phenomena, (such as earthquakes) be combined when analyzing structures, systems, and components important to safety. Several approaches to account for the potential interaction of loads resulting from accidents and natural phenomena have been used. One approach, the so-called absolute or linear summation (ABS) method, linearly adds the peak structural responses due to the individual dynamic loads. In general, the ABS method has also reflected the staff's conservative preference for the combination of dynamic load responses. A second approach, referred to as SRSS, yields a combined response equal to the square root of the sum of the squares of the peak responses due to the individual dynamic loads. The lack of a physical relationship between some of the loads has raised questions as to the proper methodology to be used in the design of nuclear power plants. An NRR Working Group was constituted to examine load combination methodologies and to develop a recommendation concerning criteria or conditions for their application. Evaluations of and recommendations on the use of the ABS and SRSS methods are provided in the report
Gaganidze, E; Ziese, M
The resonance frequency of vibrating ferromagnetic reeds in a homogeneous magnetic field can be substantially modified by intrinsic and extrinsic field-related contributions. Searching for the physical reasons of the field-induced resonance frequency change and to study the influence of the spin glass state on it, we have measured the low-temperature magnetoelastic behavior and the dynamical response of vibrating amorphous and polycrystalline ferromagnetic ribbons. We show that the magnetoelastic properties depend strongly on the direction of the applied magnetic field. The influence of the re-entrant spin glass transition on these properties is discussed. We present clear experimental evidence that for applied fields perpendicular to the main area of the samples the behavior of ferromagnetic reeds is rather independent of the material composition and magnetic state, exhibiting a large decrease of the resonance frequency. This effect can be very well explained with a model based on the dynamical response of t...
Bhattarai, Bishnu Prasad; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte; Mahat, Pukar
Future power system is expected to be characterized by increased penetration of intermittent sources. Random and rapid fluctuations in demands together with intermittency in generation impose new challenges for power balancing in the existing system. Conventional techniques of balancing by large...... central or dispersed generations might not be sufficient for future scenario. One of the effective methods to cope with this scenario is to enable demand response. This paper proposes a dynamic voltage regulation based demand response technique to be applied in low voltage (LV) distribution feeders....... An adaptive dynamic model has been developed to determine composite voltage dependency of an aggregated load on feeder level. Following the demand dispatch or control signal, optimum voltage setting at the LV substation is determined based on the voltage dependency of the load. Furthermore, a new technique...
Klopp, George T.; Petersen, Thomas A.
The wide deployment of plant specific probabilistic risk assessments for nuclear power plants has provided the means to effect a fresh risk management perspective and a fresh, risk based, regulatory outlook on nuclear power. There has been a great deal of conversation on risk based regulation within the U. S. nuclear power industry but, curiously, very little on effective risk management. This paper proposes a means to link the two subjects through the plant Technical Specifications. A revised concept for Technical Specifications is suggested which is based on deterministic analyses and probabilistic risk assessments for each plant. The revised Technical Specifications would consider, on a real-time basis, the exact state of the plant in terms of the status of key components and systems. It would depict current plant risk levels and compare those levels to the desired and limiting (alert/action) levels. It would advise the plant operator on the risk impact of proposed actions through a simple query system and illustrate the impact of such actions on plant status relative to designated risk values. The basis for the proposed approach lies in realistic deterministic plant analyses and probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) deployment tools being developed, in parallel, by a number of parties in the U.S. today. These PRAs are based primarily on the existing plant responses to Generic Letter 88-20, 'Individual Plant Examinations' (IPEs). Each of these tools allows the plant operator to input, on a real-time basis, the status of key equipment and systems. The tools then provide explicit illustrations of dependency effects; updated, 'real-time' risk status indications such as core damage frequency; and, in some cases, allow the operator to assess the risk impact of removing from service selected components for maintenance or testing. These systems generally operate on personal computers and provide nearly instantaneous responses to plant queries. Moving from these tools to
Halskov Jensen, Elisabeth
action was transformed into a moral respon-sibility on the part of the national and European politicians, constrained by economic and technical-scientific reality and represented as taking place only in the public sphere. KEY WORDS: CDA, World Risk Society, argumentation, media discourse, argumentation......ABSTRACT. This paper presents an argumentative case study of the discursive representation of risk, responsibility and political action in the Spanish media. The study uses a critical discourse analytical approach combined with theories on risk, agency and political communication in the media....... It is argued that an application of the Toulmin model is useful for eliciting systematic overall repre-sentations of responsibility and agency in environmental crises such as the mad cow crisis as well as for revealing relationships between social domains such as moral, politics, economics and science...
Described is a recent progress in studies of chromatin structural alterations induced by DNA damage by radiation. DNA in eukaryotes exists in the chromatin structure and different mechanisms of response to damage and repair of DNA from those in prokaryotes have been recognized. Chromatin is composed from its unit structure of mono-nucleosome, which is formed from DNA and an octamer of core histones of H2A, H2B, H3 and H4. When DNA is damaged, histone structural alterations are required for repair factors and checkpoint proteins to access the damaged site. At the actual genome damage, chemical modification of histone to work as a code occurs dependently on the damage where chromatin remodeling factors and histone chaperone participate for structural alteration and remodeling. As well, the exchange of histone variants and fluidization of histones are recently reported. Known chemical modification involves phosphorylation, acetylation and ubiquitination of H2AX (a variant of H2A), and acetylation and methylation of H3. Each complex of TIP60, NuA4 and INO80 is known to be included in the regulation of chromatin with damaged/repaired DNA for remodeling, but little is known about recruitment of the factors concerned at the damage site. Regulatory mechanisms in above chromatin dynamics with consideration of quality and timing of radiation should be further elucidated for understanding the precise response to DNA damage. (K.T.)
Christoffersen, Peter; Ornthanalai, Chayawat; Jacobs, Kris
We build a new class of discrete-time models that are relatively easy to estimate using returns and/or options. The distribution of returns is driven by two factors: dynamic volatility and dynamic jump intensity. Each factor has its own risk premium. The models significantly outperform standard...... models without jumps when estimated on S&P500 returns. We find very strong support for time-varying jump intensities. Compared to the risk premium on dynamic volatility, the risk premium on the dynamic jump intensity has a much larger impact on option prices. We confirm these findings using joint...
Andersen, Torben Juul
Organizational studies should address contemporary challenges of dealing effectively with the increasingly complex and dynamic business conditions. In this context we argue that structural features are linked to the corporate strategy process and affect the organization’s ability to respond...... to respond to uncertain and changing conditions. We apply this model to interactions among individuals in organizations where ongoing experiential insights among dispersed operating managers interact with the forward-looking planning considerations around top-management. This identifies an organization...... identifies a dynamic system of interacting fast and slow processes. The fast system observes and reacts to environmental stimuli and the slow system interprets events and reasons about future actions. When the fast and slow processes interact they form a dynamic adaptive system that allows the organization...
This second volume, Designing Dynamic Circuit Response builds upon the first volume Designing Amplifier Circuits by extending coverage to include reactances and their time- and frequency-related behavioral consequences.
Cettolin, E.; Tausch, F.
Risk sharing arrangements diminish individuals’ vulnerability to probabilistic events that negatively affect their financial situation. This is because risk sharing implies redistribution, as lucky individuals support the unlucky ones. We hypothesize that responsibility for risky choices decreases
Cettolin, Elena; Tausch, Franziska
Risk sharing arrangements diminish individuals’ vulnerability to probabilistic events that negatively affect their financial situation. This is because risk sharing implies redistribution, as lucky individuals support the unlucky ones. We hypothesize that responsibility for risky choices decreases
Horan, Richard D.; Fenichel, Eli P.; Finnoff, David; Wolf, Christopher A.
There is growing concern that trade, by connecting geographically isolated regions, unintentionally facilitates the spread of invasive pathogens and pests – forms of biological pollution that pose significant risks to ecosystem and human health. We use a bioeconomic framework to examine whether trade always increases private risks, focusing specifically on pathogen risks from live animal trade. When the pathogens have already established and traders bear some private risk, we find two results that run counter to the conventional wisdom on trade. First, uncertainty about the disease status of individual animals held in inventory may increase the incentives to trade relative to the disease-free case. Second, trade may facilitate reduced long-run disease prevalence among buyers. These results arise because disease risks are endogenous due to dynamic feedback processes involving valuable inventories, and markets facilitate the management of private risks that producers face with or without trade. PMID:25914431
Cai, Z H; Liu, Y; Yang, Y
In this paper, an interval method for the dynamic response of structures with uncertain parameters is presented. In the presented method, the structural physical and geometric parameters and loads can be considered as interval variables. The structural stiffness matrix, mass matrix and loading vectors are described as the sum of two parts corresponding to the deterministic matrix and the uncertainty of the interval parameters. The interval problem is then transformed into approximate deterministic one. The Laplace transform is used to transform the equations of the dynamic system into linear algebra equations. The Maclaurin series expansion is applied on the modified dynamic equation in order to deal with the linear algebra equations. Numerical examples are studied by the presented interval method for the cases with and without damping. The upper bound and lower bound of the dynamic responses of the examples are compared, and it shows that the presented method is effective.
Full Text Available This paper investigates the dynamic response of the compliant tilting pad journal bearings subjected to synchronous excitation. Bearing compliance is affected by the properties of pad liner and pad support geometry. Different unbalance eccentricities are considered. It is shown that bearing dynamic response is non-linear. Journal orbit complexity increases with pad compliance though the orbit amplitudes are marginally affected at low loads. At high loads, the journal is forced to operate outside the bearing clearance. The polymer liner reduces the maximum oil film pressure by a factor of 2 when compared to the white metal liner. The nonlinear dynamic response of compliant tilting pad journal bearings is thoroughly discussed.
Viuff, Thomas; Leira, Bernt Johan; Øiseth, Ole; Xiang, Xu
A theoretical overview of the stochastic dynamic analysis of a floating bridge structure is presented. Emphasis is on the wave-induced response and the waves on the sea surface are idealized as a zero mean stationary Gaussian process. The first-order wave load processes are derived using linear potential theory and the structural idealization is based on the Finite Element Method. A frequency response calculation is presented for a simplified floating bridge structure example emphasising the ...
Rasmussen, Morten; Zierath, Juleen R; Barrès, Romain
Skeletal muscle is a malleable organ that responds to a single acute exercise bout by inducing the expression of genes involved in structural, metabolic and functional adaptations. Several epigenetic mechanisms including histone H4 deacetylation and loss of promoter methylation have been implicated...... in modifying exercise-responsive gene expression. These transient changes suggest that epigenetic mechanisms are not restricted to early stages of human development but are broad dynamic controllers of genomic plasticity in response to environmental factors....
J. D. Wilson; W. J. Massman; G. E. Swaters
We computed the dynamic response of an idealized thermometric net radiometer, when driven by an oscillating net longwave radiation intended roughly to simulate rapid fluctuations of the radiative environment such as might be expected during field use of such devices. The study was motivated by curiosity as to whether non-linearity of the surface boundary conditions...
Heuze, F.E.; Shaffer, R.J.; Walton, O.R.; Maddix, D.M.
We describe the application of the Discrete Element Method (DEM) to the dynamic analysis of the response of tunnels in jointed rocks to earthquake loading. In situations where large motions of many blocks and collapse occur, the discontinuum-based DEM approach appears superior to other methods of analysis
Full Text Available In this research a measurement systemwas developedfor monitoring humidity and temperature in the cavity between the wall and the insulating material in the building envelope. This new technology does not disturb the insulating material during testing. The measurement system can also be applied to insulation fixed ten or twenty years earlier and sufficiently reveals the quality of the insulation. A mathematical model is proposed to characterize the dynamic responses in the cavity between the wall and the building insulation as influenced by weather conditions.These dynamic responses are manifested as a delay of both humidity and temperature changes in the cavity when compared with the changes in the ambient surrounding of the building. The process is then modeled through numerical methods and statistical analysis of the experimental data obtained using the new system of measurement.
Latini, Chiara; Zania, Varvara
Deeper water installations of offshore wind turbines may be supported by jacket structures. This study investigates the dynamic response of suction caissons for jackets by analysing 3D finite element models in the frequency domain. The numerical modelling was firstly validated by analytical...... solutions for pile foundations. Groups of crucial dimensionless parameters related to the soil profile and the foundation geometry are identified and their effects on the response of suction caissons are studied. Static stiffness coefficients are presented in a form of mathematical formulas obtained...... by fitting the numerical results, pertaining foundations with different slenderness ratios and embedded in different soil profiles. Sensitivity of the dynamic impedances of suction caissons on the skirt length was showed in this study. Moreover, the results for the suction caissons indicated that the overall...
Nelson, B.; Riemer, B.; Sayer, R.; Strickler, D.; Barabaschi, P.; Ioki, K.; Johnson, G.; Shimizu, K.; Williamson, D.
Plasma disruptions and the resulting electromagnetic loads are critical to the design of the vacuum vessel and in-vessel components of the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER). This paper describes the status of plasma disruption simulations and related analysis, including the dynamic response of the vacuum vessel and in-vessel components, stresses and deflections in the vacuum vessel, and reaction loads in the support structures
Yujun, Qian; Varming, Poul; Povlsen, Jørn Hedegaard
We present a model for relative intensity noise (RIN) in DFB fibre lasers which predicts measured characteristics accurately. Calculation results implies that the RIN decreases rapidly with stronger Bragg grating and higher pump power. We propose here a simplified model based on three spatially...... independent rate equations to describe the dynamic response of erbium doped DFB fibre lasers on pump power fluctuations, using coupled-mode theory to calculate the steady-state hole-burning of the erbium ion inversion...
Dou, Suguang; Strachan, B. Scott; Shaw, Steven W.
by a single vibrating mode, or by a pair of internally resonant modes. The approach combines techniques from nonlinear dynamics, computational mechanics and optimization, and it allows one to relate the geometric and material properties of structural elements to terms in the normal form for a given resonance......Much is known about the nonlinear resonant response of mechanical systems, but methods for the systematic design of structures that optimize aspects of these responses have received little attention. Progress in this area is particularly important in the area of micro-systems, where nonlinear...... resonant behaviour is being used for a variety of applications in sensing and signal conditioning. In this work, we describe a computational method that provides a systematic means for manipulating and optimizing features of nonlinear resonant responses of mechanical structures that are described...
Glazik, J.L.; Petroski, H.J.
The hexagonal subassembly ducts (hexcans) of current Liquid Metal Fast Breeder Reactor (LMFBR) designs are typically made of 20% coldworked Type 316 stainless steel. Prolonged exposure of this initially tough and ductile material to a fast neutron flux at high temperatures can result in severe embrittlement. Under these conditions, the unstable crack propagation of flaws, which may have been introduced during fabrication or transportation of the hexcans, is a problem of interest in LMFBR safety analysis. The abnormal overpressurization resulting from certain interactions within a subassembly, or the rupture of one or more fuel pins, may be sufficient to overload an otherwise subcritical crack in an embrittled hexcan. This paper examines the dynamic elastic response of flawed and unflawed fast reactor subassembly ducts. A plane-strain finite element analysis was performed for ducts containing internal corner cracks, as well as external midflat cracks. Two worst case loading situations were considered: rapid uniform internal pressurization and suddenly applied point loads at opposite midflats. The finite-element code CHILES, which can accomodate the stress singularities that occur at crack tips, was given dynamic capabilities through the inclusion of a consistent mass matrix and step-by-step time integration scheme. The SAP IV code was also employed for eigenvalue analysis and modal response. Although this code does not contain singular elements in its element library, dynamic stress intensity factors were calculated by a technique requiring only ordinary isoparametric quadrilaterals
Leikas, Sointu; Lindeman, Marjaana; Roininen, Katariina
The influence of food risk type and risk characteristics on food risk responsibility judgments was studied. A total of 1270 Finnish consumers judged their personal responsibility and the responsibility of three non-personal targets, industry, retail, and society, in relation to six food...
Chernoplekov, A.N.; Alexandrov, A.A.
Tiered response is a basic approach to emergency plans, including oil spill response (OSR). This paper delineates a huge set of accidental scenarios within a certain tier of response generated by a computer during risk assessment. Parameters such as the amount of oil spilled, duration of discharge and types of losses should be provided in OSR scenarios. Examples of applications include offshore installations, sub sea or onshore pipelines, and localized onshore facilities. The paper demonstrates how to use risk analysis results for delineating all likely spills into groups that need a specific tier response. The best world practices and Russian regulatory approaches were outlined and compared. Corresponding algorithms were developed and their application in pipelines was presented. The algorithm combines expert's skills and spill trajectory modeling with the net environmental benefit analysis principle into the incident specific emergency response planning. 9 refs., 13 tabs., 2 figs
according to their grid codes. In these scenarios particularly with high wind power penetration cases, conventional power plants (CPPs) such as old thermal power plants are planned to be replaced with wind power plants (WPPs). Consequently, the power system stability will be affected and the control...... to maintain sustainable and reliable operation of the power system for these targets, transmission system operators (TSOs) have revised the grid code requirements. Also, the TSOs are planning the future development of the power system with various wind penetration scenarios to integrate more wind power...... capability of WPPs would be investigated. The objective of this project is to analyze and identify the power system requirements for the synchronizing power support and inertial response control of WPPs in high wind power penetration scenarios. The dynamic frequency response of WPPs is realized...
Lucas, Andrew; Gazit, Snir; Podolsky, Daniel; Witczak-Krempa, William
We study high-frequency response functions, notably the optical conductivity, in the vicinity of quantum critical points (QCPs) by allowing for both detuning from the critical coupling and finite temperature. We consider general dimensions and dynamical exponents. This leads to a unified understanding of sum rules. In systems with emergent Lorentz invariance, powerful methods from quantum field theory allow us to fix the high-frequency response in terms of universal coefficients. We test our predictions analytically in the large-N O(N) model and using the gauge-gravity duality and numerically via quantum Monte Carlo simulations on a lattice model hosting the interacting superfluid-insulator QCP. In superfluid phases, interacting Goldstone bosons qualitatively change the high-frequency optical conductivity and the corresponding sum rule.
Procedures in accordance with Appendix A of 10 CFR 50, GDC 2, call for an appropriate combination of the effects of the accident loads and loads caused by natural phenomena (such as earthquakes) to be reflected in the design bases of safety equipment. This requirement of interaction of loads has been implemented in various ways both within the NRC and the Nuclear Industry. An NRR Working Group constituted to examine load combination methodologies developed recommendations which were published in September 1978 as NUREG-0484, (PB-287 432). Revision 1 of NUREG-0484 extends the conclusions of the original NUREG-0484 on the use of SRSS methodology for the combination of SSE and LOCA responses beyond RCPB to any other ASME Section III, Class 1, 2, or 3 affected system, component or support, and provides criteria for the combination of dynamic responses other than SSE and LOCA
Reich, M.; Bezler, P.; Koplik, B.; Curreri, J.; Goradia, H.; Lasker, L.
One of the primary factors in determining the structural integrity and consequently the safety of a High Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor (HTGR) is the dynamic response of the core when subjected to a seismic excitation. The HTGR core under consideration consists of several thousands of hexagonal elements arranged in vertical stacks containing about eight elements per stack. There are clearance gaps between adjacent elements, which can change substantially due to radiation effects produced during their active lifetime. Surrounding the outer periphery of the core are reflector blocks and restraining spring-pack arrangements which bear against the reactor vessel structure (PCRV). Earthquake input motions to this type of core arrangement will result in multiple impacts between adjacent elements as well as between the reflector blocks and the restraining spring packs. The highly complex nonlinear response associated with the multiple collisions across the clearance gaps and with the spring packs is the subject matter of this paper. Of particular importance is the ability to analyze a complex nonlinear system with gaps by employing a model with a reduced number of masses. This is necessary in order to obtain solutions in a time-frame and at a cost which is not too expensive. In addition the effect of variations in total clearance as well as the initial distribution of clearances between adjacent elements is of primary concern. Both of these aspects of the problem are treated in the present analysis. Finally, by constraining the motion of the reflector blocks, a more realistic description of the dynamic response of the multi-element HTGR core is obtained
Dixon, B.W.; Ferns, K.G.
Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) techniques are used by the nuclear industry to model the potential response of a reactor subjected to unusual conditions. The knowledge contained in these models can aid in emergency response decision making. This paper presents requirements for a PRA based emergency response support system to date. A brief discussion of published work provides background for a detailed description of recent developments. A rapid deep assessment capability for specific portions of full plant models is presented. The program uses a screening rule base to control search space expansion in a combinational algorithm
Drechsel, Robert E.
By scrutinizing the extensive and growing literature on media ethics and media codes, as well as the current history of litigation in libel cases, this paper analyzes the risks presented by journalistic social responsibility in the context of expanding tort liability for what might loosely be called journalistic malpractice. Following a review of…
Moran, D. D.
Hovercraft lift fans are subjected to varying back pressure due to wave action and craft motions when these vehicles are operating in a seaway. The oscillatory back pressure causes the fans to perform dynamically, exhibiting a hysteresis type of response and a corresponding degradation in mean performance. Since Hovercraft motions are influenced by variations in lift fan pressure and discharge, it is important to understand completely the nature of the dynamic performance of lift fans in order to completely solve the Hovercraft seakeeping problem. The present study was performed to determine and classify the instabilities encountered in a centrifugal fan operating against time-varying back pressure. A model-scale experiment was developed in which the fan discharge was directed into a flow-measuring device, terminating in a rotating valve which produced an oscillatory back pressure superimposed upon a mean aerodynamic resistance. Pressure and local velocity were measured as functions of time at several locations in the fan volute. The measurements permitted the identification of rotating (or propagating) stall in the impeller. One cell and two cell configurations were classified and the transient condition connecting these two configurations was observed. The mechanisms which lead to rotating stall in a centrifugal compressor are presented and discussed with specific reference to Hovercraft applications.
Full Text Available Fall incidents among the elderly often occur in the home and can cause serious injuries affecting their independent living. This paper presents an approach where data from wearable sensors integrated in a smart home environment is combined using a dynamic Bayesian network. The smart home environment provides contextual data, obtained from environmental sensors, and contributes to assessing a fall risk probability. The evaluation of the developed system is performed through simulation. Each time step is represented by a single user activity and interacts with a fall sensors located on a mobile device. A posterior probability is calculated for each recognized activity or contextual information. The output of the system provides a total risk assessment of falling given a response from the fall sensor.
This paper presents new risk importance measures applicable to a dynamic reliability analysis approach with multi-state components. Dynamic reliability analysis methods are needed because traditional methods, such as fault tree analysis, can describe system's dynamical behaviour only in limited manner. Dynamic flowgraph methodology (DFM) is an approach used for analysing systems with time dependencies and feedback loops. The aim of DFM is to identify root causes of a top event, usually representing the system's failure. Components of DFM models are analysed at discrete time points and they can have multiple states. Traditional risk importance measures developed for static and binary logic are not applicable to DFM as such. Some importance measures have previously been developed for DFM but their ability to describe how components contribute to the top event is fairly limited. The paper formulates dynamic risk importance measures that measure the importances of states of components and take the time-aspect of DFM into account in a logical way that supports the interpretation of results. Dynamic risk importance measures are developed as generalisations of the Fussell-Vesely importance and the risk increase factor. -- Highlights: • New risk importance measures are developed for the dynamic flowgraph methodology. • Dynamic risk importance measures are formulated for states of components. • An approach to handle failure modes of a component in DFM is presented. • Dynamic risk importance measures take failure times into account. • Component's influence on the system's reliability can be analysed in detail
Mancini, Francesco; Gangemi, Amelia
We hypothesize that individuals' choices (risk-seeking/risk-aversion) depend on moral values and, in particular, on how subjects evaluate themselves as guilty or as victims of a wrong rather than on the descriptions of the outcomes as given in the options and evaluated accordingly as gains or losses (framing effect). People who evaluate themselves as victims are expected to show a risk-seeking preference (context of innocence). People who evaluate themselves as guilty are expected to show a risk-averse preference (context of guilt). Responses of 232 participants to a decision problem were compared in four different conditions involving two-story formats (innocence/guilt) and two-question-options formats (gain/loss). Regardless of the format of the question options, the story format appears to be an important determinant of individuals' preferences.
regression and Taguchi's dynamic signal-to-noise ratio concept ..... algorithm for dynamic multi-response optimization based on goal programming approach. .... problem-solving confirmation, if no grave infringement of model suppositions is ...
Aman, Saima; Frincu, Marc; Chelmis, Charalampos; Noor, Muhammad; Simmhan, Yogesh; Prasanna, Viktor K.
As Smart Grids move closer to dynamic curtailment programs, Demand Response (DR) events will become necessary not only on fixed time intervals and weekdays predetermined by static policies, but also during changing decision periods and weekends to react to real-time demand signals. Unique challenges arise in this context vis-a-vis demand prediction and curtailment estimation and the transformation of such tasks into an automated, efficient dynamic demand response (D2R) process. While existing work has concentrated on increasing the accuracy of prediction models for DR, there is a lack of studies for prediction models for D2R, which we address in this paper. Our first contribution is the formal definition of D2R, and the description of its challenges and requirements. Our second contribution is a feasibility analysis of very-short-term prediction of electricity consumption for D2R over a diverse, large-scale dataset that includes both small residential customers and large buildings. Our third, and major contribution is a set of insights into the predictability of electricity consumption in the context of D2R. Specifically, we focus on prediction models that can operate at a very small data granularity (here 15-min intervals), for both weekdays and weekends - all conditions that characterize scenarios for D2R. We find that short-term time series and simple averaging models used by Independent Service Operators and utilities achieve superior prediction accuracy. We also observe that workdays are more predictable than weekends and holiday. Also, smaller customers have large variation in consumption and are less predictable than larger buildings. Key implications of our findings are that better models are required for small customers and for non-workdays, both of which are critical for D2R. Also, prediction models require just few days’ worth of data indicating that small amounts of
Yuan, Kai; Liu, Jian; Liu, Kaipei; Tan, Tianyuan
Background Evaluations of electric power distribution network risks must address the problems of incomplete information and changing dynamics. A risk evaluation framework should be adaptable to a specific situation and an evolving understanding of risk. Methods This study investigates the use of symbolic dynamics to abstract raw data. After introducing symbolic dynamics operators, Kolmogorov-Sinai entropy and Kullback-Leibler relative entropy are used to quantitatively evaluate relationships between risk sub-factors and main factors. For layered risk indicators, where the factors are categorized into four main factors – device, structure, load and special operation – a merging algorithm using operators to calculate the risk factors is discussed. Finally, an example from the Sanya Power Company is given to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed method. Conclusion Distribution networks are exposed and can be affected by many things. The topology and the operating mode of a distribution network are dynamic, so the faults and their consequences are probabilistic. PMID:25789859
A mathematical model of cardiovascular response to dynamic exercise is presented, The model includes the pulsating heart, the systemic and pulmonary, circulation, a functional description of muscle...
Pearson, Heather Marie
This dissertation focuses on the design, synthesis, and development of antimicrobial and anticoagulant surfaces of polyethylene (PE), polypropylene (PP), and poly(tetrafluoroethylene) (PTFE) polymers. Aliphatic polymeric surfaces of PE and PP polymers functionalized using click chemistry reactions by the attachment of --COOH groups via microwave plasma reactions followed by functionalization with alkyne moieties. Azide containing ampicillin (AMP) was synthesized and subsequently clicked into the alkyne prepared PE and PP surfaces. Compared to non-functionalized PP and PE surfaces, the AMP clicked surfaces exhibited substantially enhanced antimicrobial activity against Staphylococcus aureus bacteria. To expand the biocompatibility of polymeric surface anticoagulant attributes, PE and PTFE surfaces were functionalized with pH-responsive poly(2-vinyl pyridine) (P2VP) and poly(acrylic acid) (PAA) polyelectrolyte tethers terminated with NH2 and COOH groups. The goal of these studies was to develop switchable stimuli-responsive polymeric surfaces that interact with biological environments and display simultaneous antimicrobial and anticoagulant properties. Antimicrobial AMP was covalently attached to --COOH terminal ends of protected PAA, while anticoagulant heparin (HEP) was attached to terminal --NH2 groups of P2VP. When pH 5.5, they collapse while the PAA segments extend. Such surfaces, when exposed to Staphylococcus aureus, inhibit bacterial growth due to the presence of AMP, as well as are effective anticoagulants due to the presence of covalently attached HEP. Comparison of these "dynamic" pH responsive surfaces with "static" surfaces terminated with AMP entities show significant enhancement of longevity and surface activity against microbial film formation. The last portion of this dissertation focuses on the covalent attachment of living T1 and Φ11 bacteriophages (phages) on PE and PTFE surface. This was accomplished by carbodiimide coupling between --COOH
Depireux, Didier A; Simon, Jonathan Z; Klein, David J; Shamma, Shihab A
.... It is calculated here from the responses to elementary 'ripples,' a family of sounds with drifting, sinusoidal, spectral envelopes - the complex spectrotemporal envelope of any broadband, dynamic...
Hoang , T; Duhamel , Denis; Forêt , Gilles; Yin , H.P.; Joyez , P; Caby , R
International audience; Periodically supported beams subjected to a moving load are often used for modelling the railway dynamics and analytical solutions have been developed for such modelling [3, 4]. More complex models can be constructed by including supports with damping or non-linear stiffness elements. This study deals with the dynamical modelling of non-ballasted railways, especially railways in tunnels. The model is developed as a dynamical system of multi-degree of freedom. Under the...
Mukkamala, Raghava Rao; Hildebrandt, Thomas; Slaats, Tijs
We describe how the declarative Dynamic Condition Response (DCR) Graphs process model can be used for trustworthy adaptive case management by leveraging the flexible execution, dynamic composition and adaptation supported by DCR Graphs. The dynamically composed and adapted graphs are verified for...
Zaryabova, Victoria; Israel, Michel
The public concern about electromagnetic field (EMF) exposure varies due to different reasons. A part of them are connected with the better and higher quality of information that people receive from science, media, Internet, social networks, industry, but others are based on good communication programs performed by the responsible institutions, administration and persons. Especially, in Bulgaria, public concern follows interesting changes, some of them in correlation with the European processes of concern, but others following the economic and political processes in the country. Here, we analyze the dynamics of the public concern over the last 10 years. Our explanation of the decrease of the people's complaints against EMF exposure from base stations for mobile communication is as a result of our risk communication program that is in implementation for >10 years.
Forchhammer, Mads; Schmidt, Niels Martin; Høye, Toke Thomas
approaches, we analyse concurrently the influence of climatic variability and trophic interactions on the temporal population dynamics of species in the terrestrial vertebrate community at Zackenberg. We describe and contrast the population dynamics of three predator species (arctic fox Alopex lagopus, stoat...... of arctic fox were not significantly related to changes in lemming abundance, both the stoat and the breeding of long-tailed skua were mainly related to lemming dynamics. The predator-prey system at Zackenberg differentiates from previously described systems in high-arctic Greenland, which, we suggest...
Full Text Available In this study, we investigate the new and standardized European system of supervisory called Solvency II. In essence, asymmetric distribution of information between policyholder and insurer triggered this new regulation which aims at better protecting policyholders. Its three-pillar model is about to challenge both, insurers as well as policyholders. The first pillar includes quantitative aspects, the second pillar contains qualitative aspects and the third pillar comprises market transparency and reporting obligations. Underwriting risks, the default risk of a bank and market risks can be identified for the dynamic hybrid. Solvency II covers all these risks in the first pillar and insurers shall deposit sufficient risk-bearing capital. In our analysis, we first identify the dynamic hybrid specific risks under the Solvency II regime und then develop product modifications to reduce this risk.
Dudok de Wit, Th.; Joye, B.; Lister, J.B.; Moret, J.M.
Dynamic response analysis provides an attractive method for studying transport mechanisms in tokamak plasmas. The analysis of the radial response has already been widely used for heat and particle transport studies. The frequency dependence of the dynamic response, which is often omitted, reveals further properties of the dominant transport mechanisms. Extended measurements of the soft X-ray emission were carried out on the TCA tokamak in order to determine the underlying transport processes. (author) 5 refs., 2 figs
Full Text Available Preparing for intensifying threats of emergencies in unexpected, dangerous, and serious natural or man-made events, and consequent management of the situation, is highly demanding in terms of coordinating the personnel and resources to support human lives and the environment. This necessitates prompt action to manage the uncertainties and risks imposed by such extreme events, which requires collaborative operation among different stakeholders (i.e., the personnel from both the state and local communities. This research aims to find a way to enhance the coordination of multi-organizational response operations. To do so, this manuscript investigates the role of participants in the formed coordination response network and also the emergence and temporal dynamics of the network. By analyzing an inter-personal response coordination operation to an extreme bushfire event, the networks' and participants' structural change is evaluated during the evolution of the operation network over four time durations. The results reveal that the coordination response network becomes more decentralized over time due to the high volume of communication required to exchange information. New emerging communication structures often do not fit the developed plans, which stress the need for coordination by feedback in addition to by plan. In addition, we find that the participant's brokering role in the response operation network identifies a formal and informal coordination role. This is useful for comparison of network structures to examine whether what really happens during response operations complies with the initial policy.
Wu Xizhen; Zhuo Yizhong; Li Zhuxia; Sakata, Fumihiko.
Aiming at exploring microscopic dynamics responsible for the dissipative large-amplitude collective motion, the dynamic response and correlation functions are introduced within the general theory of nuclear coupled-master equations. The theory is based on the microscopic theory of nuclear collective dynamics which has been developed within the time-dependent Hartree-Fock (TDHF) theory for disclosing complex structure of the TDHF-manifold. A systematic numerical method for calculating the dynamic response and correlation functions is proposed. By performing numerical calculation for a simple model Hamiltonian, it is pointed out that the dynamic response function gives an important information in understanding the large-amplitude dissipative collective motion which is described by an ensemble of trajectories within the TDHF-manifold. (author)
Gorynin, A. D.; Antsev, V. Yu; Shaforost, A. N.
The paper presents the method of failure risk assessment associated with a bridge crane metal structure at the design stage. It also justifies the necessity of taking into account dynamic loads with regard to the operational cycle of a bridge crane during failure risk assessment of its metal structure.
Song, Guozheng; Khan, Faisal; Wang, Hangzhou; Leighton, Shelly; Yuan, Zhi; Liu, Hanwen
The expansion of offshore oil exploitation into remote areas (e.g., Arctic) with harsh environments has significantly increased occupational risks. Among occupational accidents, slips, trips and falls from height (STFs) account for a significant portion. Thus, a dynamic risk assessment of the three main occupational accidents is meaningful to decrease offshore occupational risks. Bow-tie Models (BTs) were established in this study for the risk analysis of STFs considering extreme environmental factors. To relax the limitations of BTs, Bayesian networks (BNs) were developed based on BTs to dynamically assess risks of STFs. The occurrence and consequence probabilities of STFs were respectively calculated using BTs and BNs, and the obtained probabilities verified BNs' rationality and advantage. Furthermore, the probability adaptation for STFs was accomplished in a specific scenario with BNs. Finally, posterior probabilities of basic events were achieved through diagnostic analysis, and critical basic events were analyzed based on their posterior likelihood to cause occupational accidents. The highlight is systematically analyzing STF accidents for offshore operations and dynamically assessing their risks considering the harsh environmental factors. This study can guide the allocation of prevention resources and benefit the safety management of offshore operations. - Highlights: • A novel dynamic risk model for occupational accidents. • First time consideration of harsh environment in occupational accident modeling. • A Bayesian network based model for risk management strategies.
Full Text Available The goal of this study was to investigate the dynamics of decision making under risk. In three experiments this dynamics have been explored with respect to probability of outcome and with respect to frame, i.e. the way the outcomes of the alternatives have been specified. The process of decision making was explored within a framework of expected utility and Prospect theory. The outcomes of alternatives as well as their probabilities were quantitatively specified (so that the expected value of a risk alternative was equal to the value of a non-risk alternative. The results of experiments indicate that the attitude towards risk (risk-proneness vs. risk-averseness depends on the outcome probability and the way the outcomes were specified (i.e. positive/negative frame. It was also demonstrated that content strongly affects the choices made in decision making. This outcome is somewhat unexpected and requires additional empirical evaluation.
Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Botzen, W. J.; Clarke, K. C.; Cutter, S. L.; Hall, J. W.; Merz, B.; Michel-Kerjan, E.; Mysiak, J.; Surminski, S.; Kunreuther, H.
The behaviour of individuals, businesses, and government entities before, during, and immediately after a disaster can dramatically affect the impact and recovery time. However, existing risk-assessment methods rarely include this critical factor. In this Perspective, we show why this is a concern, and demonstrate that although initial efforts have inevitably represented human behaviour in limited terms, innovations in flood-risk assessment that integrate societal behaviour and behavioural adaptation dynamics into such quantifications may lead to more accurate characterization of risks and improved assessment of the effectiveness of risk-management strategies and investments. Such multidisciplinary approaches can inform flood-risk management policy development.
This paper analyses the nature of the relationship between risk and responsibility. Since neither the concept of risk nor the concept of responsibility has an unequivocal definition, it is obvious that there is no single interpretation of their relationship. After introducing the different meanings of responsibility used in this paper, we analyse four conceptions of risk. This allows us to make their link with responsibility explicit and to determine if a shift in the connection between risk and responsibility can be outlined. (1) In the engineer's paradigm, the quantitative conception of risk does not include any concept of responsibility. Their relationship is indirect, the locus of responsibility being risk management. (2) In Mary Douglas' cultural theory, risks are constructed through the responsibilities they engage. (3) Rayner and (4) Wolff go further by integrating forms of responsibility in the definition of risk itself. Analysis of these four frameworks shows that the concepts of risk and responsibility are increasingly intertwined. This tendency is reinforced by increasing public awareness and a call for the integration of a moral dimension in risk management. Therefore, we suggest that a form of virtue-responsibility should also be integrated in the concept of risk. © Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2010
Griguoli, A.; Sips, A.C.C.
The plasma dynamic response can be used to study transport processes in a tokamak plasma. A method has been developed for the application of dynamic response analysis to study perturbations away from the plasma equilibrium. In this report perturbations on the electron temperature following a sawtooth collapse in the center of the plasma are considered. The method has been used to find mathematical description of a series of heat pulses at the Joint European Torus project (JET). From the plasma dynamic response, the time constants which characterise the heat pulse are obtained. These time constants are compared to the transport coefficients found in previous analysis of the JET heat pulse data. Various methods are discussed for applying dynamic response analysis to JET heat pulse data. (author)
The paper describes a structural dynamic analysis of the 1 / 5 -scale BWR toroidal wetwell. The subscale toroidal wetwell is part of the Pressure Suppression Experiment Facility at Lawrence Livermore Laboratory. The analysis objective is to show that experimental structural loads measured by load cells in the wetwell supports are consistent with the internal hydrodynamic forcing function measured by pressure transducers. Finite element analysis of the wetwell indicates that the load and pressure measurements are consistent
Hutchinson, Adv. Appl . Mech. 29 (1992).  H. Ming-Yuan, J.W. Hutchinson, Int. J. Solids Struct. 25 (1989) 1053.  J. Salem , L. Ghosn, Int. J...Dynamic Multiaxial Response of a Hot- Pressed Aluminum Nitride by Guangli Hu, C. Q. Chen, K. T. Ramesh, and J. W. McCauley ARL-RP-0487...Laboratory Aberdeen Proving Ground, MD 21005-5066 ARL-RP-0487 June 2014 Dynamic Multiaxial Response of a Hot- Pressed Aluminum Nitride
Full Text Available To price convertible bonds more precisely, least squares Monte Carlo (LSM method is used in this paper for its advantage in handling the dependence of derivatives on the path, and dynamic credit risk is used to replace the fixed one to make the value of convertible bonds reflect the real credit risk. In the empirical study, we price convertible bonds based on static credit risk and dynamic credit risk, respectively. Empirical results indicate that the ICBC convertible bond has been overpriced, resulting from the underestimation of credit risk. In addition, when there is an issue of dividend, the conversion price will change in China's convertible bonds, while it does not change in the international convertible bonds. So we also empirically study the difference between the convertible bond's prices by assuming whether the conversion price changes or not.
Kim, Rebecca Chunghee; Moon, Jeremy
This article investigates Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) in Asia through two related themes: research knowledge and ethical norms. ‘CSR in Asia’ research is shown to be growing, particularly in East Asia. Compared with Western CSR literature, it is shown to be dominated by empirical, parti...
Full Text Available With the great risk exposed in IT outsourcing, how to assess IT outsourcing risk becomes a critical issue. However, most of approaches to date need to further adapt to the particular complexity of IT outsourcing risk for either falling short in subjective bias, inaccuracy, or efficiency. This paper proposes a dynamic algorithm of risk assessment. It initially forwards extended three layers (risk factors, risks, and risk consequences of transferring mechanism based on transaction cost theory (TCT as the framework of risk analysis, which bridges the interconnection of components in three layers with preset transferring probability and impact. Then, it establishes an equation group between risk factors and risk consequences, which assures the “attribution” more precisely to track the specific sources that lead to certain loss. Namely, in each phase of the outsourcing lifecycle, both the likelihood and the loss of each risk factor and those of each risk are acquired through solving equation group with real data of risk consequences collected. In this “reverse” way, risk assessment becomes a responsive and interactive process with real data instead of subjective estimation, which improves the accuracy and alleviates bias in risk assessment. The numerical case proves the effectiveness of the algorithm compared with the approach forwarded by other references.
Mascarenas, David; Macknelly, David; Mullins, Josh; Wiest, Heather; Park, Gyuhae
The rapid deployment of satellites for responsive space surveillance applications is hindered by the need to flight-qualify their components and the resulting mechanical assembly. Conventional methods for qualification testing of satellite components are costly and time consuming. Furthermore, full-scale vehicles must be subjected to simulated launch loads during testing, and this harsh testing environment increases the risk of damage to satellite components during qualification. This work focuses on replacing this potentially destructive testing procedure with a non-destructive structural health monitoring (SHM)-based technique while maintaining the same level of confidence in the testing procedure's ability to qualify the satellite for flight. We focus on assessing the performance of SHM techniques to replace the high-cost qualification procedure and to localize faults introduced by improper assembly. The goal of this work is to create a dual-use system that can both assist in the process of qualifying the satellite for launch, as well as provide continuous structural integrity monitoring during manufacture, transport, launch and deployment. SHM techniques were applied on a small-scale structure representative of a responsive satellite. The test structure consisted of an extruded aluminum space-frame covered with aluminum shear plates assembled using bolted joints. Multiple piezoelectric transducers were bonded to the test structure and acted as combined actuators and sensors. Piezoelectric active-sensing based techniques, including measurements of low-frequency global frequency response functions and high-frequency wave propagation techniques, were employed. Using these methods in conjunction with finite element modeling, the dynamic properties of the test structure were established and areas of potential damage could be identified and localized. A procedure for guiding the effective placement of the sensors and actuators is also outlined. (paper)
Koop, Gregory J.; Criss, Amy H.
Advances in theories of memory are hampered by insufficient metrics for measuring memory. The goal of this paper is to further the development of model-independent, sensitive empirical measures of the recognition decision process. We evaluate whether metrics from continuous mouse tracking, or response dynamics, uniquely identify response bias and…
Ziras, Charalampos; Hu, Junjie; You, Shi
There is an increasing interest in the use of electric vehicles (EVs) for providing fast frequency reserves due to their large installed capacity and their very fast response. Most works focus on scheduling and optimization and usually neglect their aggregated dynamic response, which...
It also results in better optimization performance than back-propagation neural network-based approach and data mining-based approach reported by the past researchers. Keywords: multiple responses, multiple regression, weighted dynamic signal-to-noise ratio, performance measure modelling, response function ...
Faya, A.J.G.; Bassel, W.S.
A mathematical model has been developed to analyze the transient thermal response of the I.P.E.N. water loop during change of power operations. The model is capable of estimating the necessary test section power and heat exchanger mass flow rate for a given operating temperature. It can also determine the maximum heating or cooling rate to avoid thermal shocks in pipes and components. (Author) [pt
Kalapotharakos, C.; Patsis, P. A.; Grosbøl, P.
We study the stellar response in a spectrum of potentials describing the barred spiral galaxy NGC1300. These potentials have been presented in a previous paper and correspond to three different assumptions as regards the geometry of the galaxy. For each potential we consider a wide range of Ωp pattern speed values. Our goal is to discover the geometries and the Ωp supporting specific morphological features of NGC1300. For this purpose we use the method of response models. In order to compare the images of NGC1300 with the density maps of our models, we define a new index which is a generalization of the Hausdorff distance. This index helps us to find out quantitatively which cases reproduce specific features of NGC1300 in an objective way. Furthermore, we construct alternative models following a Schwarzschild-type technique. By this method we vary the weights of the various energy levels, and thus the orbital contribution of each energy, in order to minimize the differences between the response density and that deduced from the surface density of the galaxy, under certain assumptions. We find that the models corresponding to Ωp ~ 16 and 22 kms-1kpc-1 are able to reproduce efficiently certain morphological features of NGC1300, with each one having its advantages and drawbacks. Based on observations collected at the European Southern Observatory, Chile: programme ESO 69.A-0021. E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org (CK); email@example.com (PAP); firstname.lastname@example.org (PG)
Chelmis, Charalampos [Univ. of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA (United States); Aman, Saima [Univ. of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA (United States); Saeed, Muhammad Rizwan [Univ. of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA (United States); Frincu, Marc [Univ. of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA (United States); Prasanna, Viktor K. [Univ. of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA (United States)
Growing demand is straining our existing electricity generation facilities and requires active participation of the utility and the consumers to achieve energy sustainability. One of the most effective and widely used ways to achieve this goal in the smart grid is demand response (DR), whereby consumers reduce their electricity consumption in response to a request sent from the utility whenever it anticipates a peak in demand. To successfully plan and implement demand response, the utility requires reliable estimate of reduced consumption during DR. This also helps in optimal selection of consumers and curtailment strategies during DR. While much work has been done on predicting normal consumption, reduced consumption prediction is an open problem that is under-studied. In this paper, we introduce and formalize the problem of reduced consumption prediction, and discuss the challenges associated with it. We also describe computational methods that use historical DR data as well as pre-DR conditions to make such predictions. Our experiments are conducted in the real-world setting of a university campus microgrid, and our preliminary results set the foundation for more detailed modeling.
Ohtomo, Keizo; Iwatate, Hisahiro
In order to rationalize the aseismatic design of nuclear power stations, it is necessary to elucidate the characteristics of effective input when the earthquake motion for the design is inputted in the foundations of nuclear power stations. In this study, among the research subjects concerning the reduction of effective earthquake input, regarding the uplift of foundations, its response characteristics and the method of the rational evaluation of earth contact ratio were experimentally examined, and the method of analysis which can evaluate the damping effect due to the uplift was proposed. The experimental method is reported. It was found that accompanying the uplift of foundations, vertical motion was induced, and horizontal motion showed nonlinear response. It was confirmed that the nonlinear response accompanying the uplift can be approximately evaluated by the conventional analysis technique using the S-R model. The current equation for evaluating earth contact ratio is adequate for a soft ground model, and tends to undervaluate for a hard ground model. The S-R analysis model introducing the experimentally obtained characteristics in the dampling coefficient of a nonlinear rocking spring was newly made. (Kako, I.)
Tiwari, Abhinav; Ray, J. Christian J.; Narula, Jatin; Igoshin, Oleg A.
A key property of living cells is their ability to react to stimuli with specific biochemical responses. These responses can be understood through the dynamics of underlying biochemical and genetic networks. Evolutionary design principles have been well studied in networks that display graded responses, with a continuous relationship between input signal and system output. Alternatively, biochemical networks can exhibit bistable responses so that over a range of signals the network possesses two stable steady states. In this review, we discuss several conceptual examples illustrating network designs that can result in a bistable response of the biochemical network. Next, we examine manifestations of these designs in bacterial master-regulatory genetic circuits. In particular, we discuss mechanisms and dynamic consequences of bistability in three circuits: two-component systems, sigma-factor networks, and a multistep phosphorelay. Analyzing these examples allows us to expand our knowledge of evolutionary design principles for networks with bistable responses. PMID:21385588
Fernandes, R.; Braunschweig, F.; Lourenço, F.; Neves, R.
The technological evolution in terms of computational capacity, data acquisition systems, numerical modelling and operational oceanography is supplying opportunities for designing and building holistic approaches and complex tools for newer and more efficient management (planning, prevention and response) of coastal water pollution risk events. A combined methodology to dynamically estimate time and space variable individual vessel accident risk levels and shoreline contamination risk from ships has been developed, integrating numerical metocean forecasts and oil spill simulations with vessel tracking automatic identification systems (AIS). The risk rating combines the likelihood of an oil spill occurring from a vessel navigating in a study area - the Portuguese continental shelf - with the assessed consequences to the shoreline. The spill likelihood is based on dynamic marine weather conditions and statistical information from previous accidents. The shoreline consequences reflect the virtual spilled oil amount reaching shoreline and its environmental and socio-economic vulnerabilities. The oil reaching shoreline is quantified with an oil spill fate and behaviour model running multiple virtual spills from vessels along time, or as an alternative, a correction factor based on vessel distance from coast. Shoreline risks can be computed in real time or from previously obtained data. Results show the ability of the proposed methodology to estimate the risk properly sensitive to dynamic metocean conditions and to oil transport behaviour. The integration of meteo-oceanic + oil spill models with coastal vulnerability and AIS data in the quantification of risk enhances the maritime situational awareness and the decision support model, providing a more realistic approach in the assessment of shoreline impacts. The risk assessment from historical data can help finding typical risk patterns ("hot spots") or developing sensitivity analysis to specific conditions, whereas real
A.B. Berkelaar (Arjan); R.R.P. Kouwenberg (Roy)
textabstractThis paper considers dynamic asset allocation in a mean versus downside-risk framework. We derive closed-form solutions for the optimal portfolio weights when returns are lognormally distributed. Moreover, we study the impact of skewed and fat-tailed return distributions. We find that
Assessing and quantifying cyber risk accurately in real-time is essential to providing security and mission assurance in any system and network. This paper presents a modeling and dynamic analysis approach to assessing cyber risk of a network in real-time by representing dynamically its vulnerabilities, exploitations, and impact using integrated Bayesian network and Markov models. Given the set of vulnerabilities detected by a vulnerability scanner in a network, this paper addresses how its risk can be assessed by estimating in real-time the exploit likelihood and impact of vulnerability exploitation on the network, based on real-time observations and measurements over the network. The dynamic representation of the network in terms of its vulnerabilities, sensor measurements, and observations is constructed dynamically using the integrated Bayesian network and Markov models. The transition rates of outgoing and incoming links of states in hidden Markov models are used in determining exploit likelihood and impact of attacks, whereas emission rates help quantify the attack states of vulnerabilities. Simulation results show the quantification and evolving risk scores over time for individual and aggregated vulnerabilities of a network.
A few men also admitted to being motivated by material and financial benefits from sex workers who they perceived as being rich and this was one factor that helped them sustain the relationships. These findings offer insights into the complex relationship dynamics within high risk sexual partnerships. However, the findings ...
Karpechko, A.; Manzini, E.
Climate models often simulate dynamical warming of the Arctic stratosphere as a response to global warming in association with a strengthening of the deep branch of the Brewer-Dobson circulation; however until now, no satisfactory mechanism for such a response has been suggested. Here we investigate the role of stationary planetary waves in the dynamical response of the Arctic winter stratosphere circulation to global warming by analysing simulations performed with atmosphere-only Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models driven by prescribed sea surface temperatures (SSTs). We focus on December-February (DJF) because this is the period when the troposphere and stratosphere are strongly coupled. When forced by increased SSTs, all the models analysed here simulate Arctic stratosphere dynamical warming, mostly due to increased upward propagation of quasi-stationary wave number 1, as diagnosed by the meridional eddy heat flux. By analysing intermodel spread in the response we show that the stratospheric warming and increased wave flux to the stratosphere correlate with the strengthening of the zonal winds in subtropics and mid-latitudes near the tropopause- a robust response to global warming. These results support previous studies of future Arctic stratosphere changes and suggest a dynamical warming of the Arctic wintertime polar vortex as the most likely response to global warming.
Khakzad, Nima; Khan, Faisal; Amyotte, Paul
Accident probability estimation is a common and central step to all quantitative risk assessment methods. Among many techniques available, bow-tie model (BT) is very popular because it represent the accident scenario altogether including causes and consequences. However, it suffers a static structure limiting its application in real-time monitoring and probability updating which are key factors in dynamic risk analysis. The present work is focused on using BT approach in a dynamic environment in which the occurrence probability of accident consequences changes. In this method, on one hand, failure probability of primary events of BT, leading to the top event, are developed using physical reliability models, and constantly revised as physical parameters (e.g., pressure, velocity, dimension, etc) change. And, on the other hand, the failure probability of safety barriers of the BT are periodically updated using Bayes’ theorem as new information becomes available over time. Finally, the resulting, updated BT is used to estimate the posterior probability of the consequences which in turn results in an updated risk profile. - Highlights: ► A methodology is proposed to make bow-tie method adapted for dynamic risk analysis. ► Physical reliability models are used to revise the top event. ► Bayes’ theorem is used to update the probability of safety barriers. ► The number of accidents in sequential time intervals is used to form likelihood function. ► The risk profile is updated for varying physical parameters and for different times.
Full Text Available Risk management and success in projects are highly intertwined – better approaches to project risk management tend to increase chances of project success in terms of achieving scope & quality, schedule and cost targets. The process of responding to risk factors during a project’s life cycle is a crucial aspect of risk management referred to as risk response strategies, in this paper. The current research explores the status of risk response strategies applied in the software development projects in India. India provides a young IT-savvy English-speaking population, which is also cost effective. Other than the workforce, the environment for implementation of software projects in India is different from the matured economies. Risk management process is a commonly discussed theme, though its implementation in practice has a huge scope for improvement in India. The paper talks about four fundamental treatments to risk response – Avoidance, Transference, Mitigation and Acceptance (ATMA. From a primary data of 302 project managers, the paper attempts to address the risk response factors that lead to successful achievement of project scope & quality, schedule and cost targets, by using a series of regressions followed with Seemingly Unrelated Regression Equations (SURE modelling. Mitigation emerged as the most significant risk response strategy to achieve project targets. Acceptance, transference, and avoidance of risk were mostly manifested in the forms of transparency in communication across stakeholders, careful study of the nature of risks and close coordination between project team, customers/end-users and top management.
Bykov, A.A.; Pronina, I.A.; Kudriavtsev, G.I.
The paper deals with the generalized probabilistic approach for analyzing health consequences caused by various exposure factors. Formally basing on the competitive risk theory, it is introduced a general risk model for analysis the influence of environmental risk factors to human health. The usefulness of the model approach is in the opportunity of taking into account: time delay of impact and consequence manifestation; easy comparisons of exposure factors with different nature and various consequences (morbidity and mortality, carcinogenic and genetic); social and environmental components in overall mortality. Preliminary examples of comparative risk analysis are demonstrated on the Russian demography and environmental data with the attempt of characterizing the dynamical tendencies and evolution of introduced risk index. The prospects of the probabilistic approach and the results obtaining on this basis are discussed. (author)
Jendrzejczyk, J.A.; Smith, R.K.; Vogt, M.E.
In the Advanced Photon Source, the synchrotron booster ring accelerates positrons to the required energy level of 7 GeV. The positrons are then injected into the storage ring where they continue to orbit for 10--15 h. The storage ring quadrupoles have very stringent vibration criteria that must be satisfied to ensure that beam emittance growth is within acceptable limits, viz., <10%. Because the synchrotron booster ring is not operated after particle insertion into the storage ring, its vibration response is not a critical issue relative to the performance of the storage ring beam. Nevertheless, the synchrotron pulses at a frequency of 2 Hz, and if a vibration response frequency of the synchrotron magnet/girder assembly were to coincide with the pulsation frequency or its near harmonics, large-amplitude motion could result, with the effect that it could compromise the operation of the synchrotron. Due to the complex dynamics of the synchrotron magnet/girder assembly, it is necessary to measure the dynamic response of a prototypic assembly and its components to ensure that the inherent dynamic response frequencies are not equal to 2 Hz or any near harmonics. Dynamic-response measurement of the synchrotron girder assembly and component magnets is the subject of this report
Individuals' perceptions of risk have implications for whether and how they engage with protective strategies. This study investigated how sexual risk, specifically HIV and pregnancy and responsibility for these risks were constructed in discussions across five groups of youth in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. The qualitative ...
Renneboog, L.D.R.; Ter Horst, J.R.; Zhang, C.
This paper surveys the literature on socially responsible investments (SRI). Over the past decade, SRI has experienced an explosive growth around the world. Particular to the SRI funds is that both financial goals and social objectives are pursued. While corporate social responsibility (CSR) -
Commercially produced hen eggs have been tested by means of dynamic excitation of the egg-shells with following analysis of their response. The falling steel ball have been chosen as a exciting instrument and the laser vibrometer have been used as a measuring device for the egg response. The reproductibility of the experiments has been relatively high and the surface velocity has been found to be significantly dependent on the position around the meridian. Analysed frequency spectrum has show...
Bragg-Sitton, Shannon M.; Morton, T. J.
Non-nuclear testing can be a valuable tool in development of a space nuclear power or propulsion system. In a non-nuclear test bed, electric heaters are used to simulate the heat from nuclear fuel. Standard testing allows one to fully assess thermal, heat transfer, and stress related attributes of a given system, but fails to demonstrate the dynamic response that would be present in an integrated, fueled reactor system. The integration of thermal hydraulic hardware tests with simulated neutronic response provides a bridge between electrically heated testing and full nuclear testing. By implementing a neutronic response model to simulate the dynamic response that would be expected in a fueled reactor system, one can better understand system integration issues, characterize integrated system response times and response characteristics, and assess potential design improvements at a relatively small fiscal investment. Initial system dynamic response testing was demonstrated on the integrated SAFE-100a heat pipe cooled, electrically heated reactor and heat exchanger hardware, utilizing a one-group solution to the point kinetics equations to simulate the expected neutronic response of the system (Bragg-Sitton, 2005). The current paper applies the same testing methodology to a direct drive gas cooled reactor system, demonstrating the applicability of the testing methodology to any reactor type and demonstrating the variation in system response characteristics in different reactor concepts. In each testing application, core power transients were controlled by a point kinetics model with reactivity feedback based on core average temperature; the neutron generation time and the temperature feedback coefficient are provided as model inputs. Although both system designs utilize a fast spectrum reactor, the method of cooling the reactor differs significantly, leading to a variable system response that can be demonstrated and assessed in a non-nuclear test facility.
Full Text Available Risk management in this paper is focused on multivariate risk-return decision making assuming time-varying estimation. Empirical research in risk management showed that the static "mean-variance" methodology in portfolio optimization is very restrictive with unrealistic assumptions. The objective of this paper is estimation of time-varying portfolio stocks weights by constraints on risk measure. Hence, risk measure dynamic estimation is used in risk controlling. By risk control manager makes free supplementary capital for new investments.Univariate modeling approach is not appropriate, even when portfolio returns are treated as one variable. Portfolio weights are time-varying, and therefore it is necessary to reestimate whole model over time. Using assumption of bivariate Student´s t-distribution, in multivariate GARCH(p,q models, it becomes possible to forecast time-varying portfolio risk much more precisely. The complete procedure of analysis is established from Zagreb Stock Exchange using daily observations of Pliva and Podravka stocks.
Mukkamala, Raghava Rao; Hildebrandt, Thomas
Recently we have presented distributed dynamic condition response structures (DCR structures) as a declarative process model conservatively generalizing labelled event structures to allow for finite specifications of repeated, possibly infinite behavior. The key ideas are to split the causality...... relation of event structures in two dual relations: the condition relation and the response relation, to split the conflict relation in two relations: the dynamic exclusion and dynamic inclusion, and finally to allow configurations to be multi sets of events. In the present abstract we recall the model...... and show how to characterise the execution of DCR structures and the acceptance condition for infinite runs by giving a map to Bu ̈chi-automata. This is the first step towards automatic verification of processes specified as DCR structures....
Aravena, S.; Tijms, J.; Snellings, P.; van der Molen, M.W.
In the current study we examined the value of a dynamic test for predicting responsiveness to reading intervention for children diagnosedwith dyslexia. The test consisted of a 20-minute training aimed at learning eight basic letter–speech sound correspondences within an artificial orthography,
Cookney, Joanna; Ogieglo, Wojciech; Hrabanek, Pavel; Vankelecom, Ivo; Fila, Vlastimil; Benes, Nieck E
Ultrathin ZIF-8 nanofilms are prepared by facile step-by-step dip coating. A critical withdrawal speed allows for films with a very uniform minimum thickness. The high refractive index of the films denotes the absence of mesopores. The dynamic response of the films to CO2 exposure resembles behaviour observed for non-equilibrium organic polymers.
Cookney, J.; Ogieglo, Wojciech; Hrabanek, P.; Vankelecom, I.; Fila, V.; Benes, Nieck Edwin
Ultrathin ZIF-8 nanofilms are prepared by facile step-by-step dip coating. A critical withdrawal speed allows for films with a very uniform minimum thickness. The high refractive index of the films denotes the absence of mesopores. The dynamic response of the films to CO2 exposure resembles behaviour observed for nonequilibrium organic polymers.
Cookney, J.; Ogieglo, Wojciech; Hrabanek, P.; Vankelecom, I.; Fila, V.; Benes, Nieck Edwin
Ultrathin ZIF-8 nanofilms are prepared by facile step-by-step dip coating. A critical withdrawal speed allows for films with a very uniform minimum thickness. The high refractive index of the films denotes the absence of mesopores. The dynamic response of the films to CO2 exposure resembles
Cettolin, Elena; Tausch, Franziska
Risk sharing arrangements diminish individuals’ vulnerability to probabilistic events that negatively affect their financial situation. This is because risk sharing implies redistribution, as lucky individuals support the unlucky ones. We hypothesize that responsibility for risky choices decreases
van der Riet, Mary; Nicholson, Tamaryn Jane
Individuals' perceptions of risk have implications for whether and how they engage with protective strategies. This study investigated how sexual risk, specifically HIV and pregnancy and responsibility for these risks were constructed in discussions across five groups of youth in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. The qualitative study used focus groups and interviews with a sample of 28 tertiary level students and 7 peri-urban youth. The constructions of risk intersected with raced and gendered narratives around sexual risk and responsibility. These constructions were used by the participants to assign and displace responsibility for the risks of HIV and pregnancy, rendering some groups immune to these risks. This constitutes a form of stigmatisation and also has implications for participants' prevention practices.
Dugan, Joanne Bechta (Inventor); Xu, Hong (Inventor)
The DEFT methodology, system and computer readable medium extends the applicability of the PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment) methodology to computer-based systems, by allowing DFT (Dynamic Fault Tree) nodes as pivot nodes in the Event Tree (ET) model. DEFT includes a mathematical model and solution algorithm, supports all common PRA analysis functions and cutsets. Additional capabilities enabled by the DFT include modularization, phased mission analysis, sequence dependencies, and imperfect coverage.
Juul Andersen, Torben
Previous research found that capital structure affects performance when it is adapted to the level of environmental dynamism and pursuit of an innovation strategy. The current study reproduces some of these relationships in a more recent dataset but also identifies significant nuances across...... industrial environments. Analyses of a large cross sectional sample and various industry sub-samples suggest that other factors have influenced capital structure effects in recent years including flexibilities in multinational organization and effective strategic risk management capabilities....
Klenk, Jochen; Becker, Clemens; Palumbo, Pierpaolo; Schwickert, Lars; Rapp, Kilan; Helbostad, Jorunn L; Todd, Chris; Lord, Stephen R; Kerse, Ngaire
Falls are a major cause of injury and disability in older people, leading to serious health and social consequences including fractures, poor quality of life, loss of independence, and institutionalization. To design and provide adequate prevention measures, accurate understanding and identification of person's individual fall risk is important. However, to date, the performance of fall risk models is weak compared with models estimating, for example, cardiovascular risk. This deficiency may result from 2 factors. First, current models consider risk factors to be stable for each person and not change over time, an assumption that does not reflect real-life experience. Second, current models do not consider the interplay of individual exposure including type of activity (eg, walking, undertaking transfers) and environmental risks (eg, lighting, floor conditions) in which activity is performed. Therefore, we posit a dynamic fall risk model consisting of intrinsic risk factors that vary over time and exposure (activity in context). eHealth sensor technology (eg, smartphones) begins to enable the continuous measurement of both the above factors. We illustrate our model with examples of real-world falls from the FARSEEING database. This dynamic framework for fall risk adds important aspects that may improve understanding of fall mechanisms, fall risk models, and the development of fall prevention interventions. Copyright © 2017 AMDA – The Society for Post-Acute and Long-Term Care Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Chang, Y.H.J.; Mosleh, A.
This is the last in a series of five papers that discuss the Information Decision and Action in Crew (IDAC) context for human reliability analysis (HRA) and example application. The model is developed to probabilistically predict the responses of the control room operating crew in nuclear power plants during an accident, for use in probabilistic risk assessments (PRA). The operator response spectrum includes cognitive, emotional, and physical activities during the course of an accident. This paper describes a dynamic PRA computer simulation program, accident dynamics simulator (ADS), developed in part to implement the IDAC model. This paper also provides a detailed example of implementing a simpler version of IDAC, compared with the IDAC model discussed in the first four papers of this series, to demonstrate the practicality of integrating a detailed cognitive HRA model within a dynamic PRA framework
Isbell, W.M.; Walton, O.R.; Ree, F.H.
Previous investigstions of the mechanical response of porous materials to dynamic loading have been extended to include the shock wave response of a brittle metal. The complex response of berylliums of 85 to 90 percent porosity in two initial conditions has been examined in a theoretical and experimental program to be described. The study has resulted in the development of constitutive relations placed in hydrocodes which are capable of accurately predicting wave propagation in the berylliums. A comprehensive set of static (0 to 4 Gpa) and dynamic (0 to 35 Gpa) experiments was performed to measure the behavior of these brittle, porous materials to imposed loads. The results of the experiments guided a modeling effort which added several new features to previous models, including deviatoric stresses, porosity-dependent relaxation time of pore closure, elastic-plastic reopening of pores, and improved compaction functions.
Wen, Jiayu; Leucci, Elenora; Vendramin, Roberto
We report a high-resolution time series study of transcriptome dynamics following antimiR-mediated inhibition of miR-9 in a Hodgkin lymphoma cell-line-the first such dynamic study of the microRNA inhibition response-revealing both general and specific aspects of the physiological response. We show...... validate the key observations with independent time series qPCR and we experimentally validate key predicted miR-9 targets. Methodologically, we developed sensitive functional data analytic predictive methods to analyse the weak response inherent in microRNA inhibition experiments. The methods...... of this study will be applicable to similar high-resolution time series transcriptome analyses and provides the context for more accurate experimental design and interpretation of future microRNA inhibition studies....
Isbell, W.M.; Walton, O.R.; Ree, F.H.
Previous investigstions of the mechanical response of porous materials to dynamic loading have been extended to include the shock wave response of a brittle metal. The complex response of berylliums of 85 to 90 percent porosity in two initial conditions has been examined in a theoretical and experimental program to be described. The study has resulted in the development of constitutive relations placed in hydrocodes which are capable of accurately predicting wave propagation in the berylliums. A comprehensive set of static (0 to 4 Gpa) and dynamic (0 to 35 Gpa) experiments was performed to measure the behavior of these brittle, porous materials to imposed loads. The results of the experiments guided a modeling effort which added several new features to previous models, including deviatoric stresses, porosity-dependent relaxation time of pore closure, elastic-plastic reopening of pores, and improved compaction functions
Wang, Cheng; Dong, Da; Strong, P. J.; Zhu, Weijing; Ma, Zhuang; Qin, Yong; Wu, Weixiang
Background Animal manure is a reservoir of antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) that pose a potential health risk globally, especially for resistance to the antibiotics commonly used in livestock production (such as tetracycline, sulfonamide, and fluoroquinolone). Currently, the effects of biological treatment (composting) on the transcriptional response of manure ARGs and their microbial hosts are not well characterized. Composting is a dynamic process that consists of four distinct phases tha...
van Niftrik, Christiaan Hendrik Bas; Piccirelli, Marco; Bozinov, Oliver; Pangalu, Athina; Fisher, Joseph A; Valavanis, Antonios; Luft, Andreas R; Weller, Michael; Regli, Luca; Fierstra, Jorn
To improve quantitative cerebrovascular reactivity (CVR) measurements and CO 2 arrival times, we present an iterative analysis capable of decomposing different temporal components of the dynamic carbon dioxide- Blood Oxygen-Level Dependent (CO 2 -BOLD) relationship. Decomposition of the dynamic parameters included a redefinition of the voxel-wise CO 2 arrival time, and a separation from the vascular response to a stepwise increase in CO 2 (Delay to signal Plateau - DTP) and a decrease in CO 2 (Delay to signal Baseline -DTB). Twenty-five (normal) datasets, obtained from BOLD MRI combined with a standardized pseudo-square wave CO 2 change, were co-registered to generate reference atlases for the aforementioned dynamic processes to score the voxel-by-voxel deviation probability from normal range. This analysis is further illustrated in two subjects with unilateral carotid artery occlusion using these reference atlases. We have found that our redefined CO 2 arrival time resulted in the best data fit. Additionally, excluding both dynamic BOLD phases (DTP and DTB) resulted in a static CVR, that is maximal response, defined as CVR calculated only over a normocapnic and hypercapnic calibrated plateau. Decomposition and novel iterative modeling of different temporal components of the dynamic CO 2 -BOLD relationship improves quantitative CVR measurements.
Ito, Sanae I.
The five-year project of Grant-in-Aid for Specially Promoted Research entitled general research on the structure formation and selection rule in plasma turbulence had brought many outcomes. Based on these outcomes, the Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (S) program entitled general research on dynamic response and dynamic transport in plasma turbulence has started. In the present paper, the state-of-the-art of the research activities on the structure formation, selection rule and dynamics in plasma turbulence are reviewed with reference to outcomes of these projects. (author)
Akram, T.; Memon, S.A.
In design practice, dynamic structural analysis is carried out with base of structure considered as fixed; this means that foundation is placed on rock like soil material. While conducting this type of analyses the role of foundation and soil behaviour is totally neglected. The actions in members and loads transferred at foundation level obtained in this manner do not depict the true structural behaviour. FEM (Finite Element Methods) analysis where both superstructure and foundation soil are coupled together is quite complicated and expensive for design environments. A simplified model is required to depict dynamic response of structures with foundations based on flexible soils. The primary purpose of this research is to compare the superstructure dynamic responses of structural systems with fixed base to that of simple soil model base. The selected simple soil model is to be suitable for use in a design environment to give more realistic results. For this purpose building models are idealized with various heights and structural systems in both 2D (Two Dimensional) and 3D (Three Dimensional) space. These models are then provided with visco-elastic supports representing three soil bearing capacities and the analysis results are compared to that of fixed supports models. The results indicate that fixed support system underestimates natural time period of the structures. Dynamic behavior and force response of visco-elastic support is different from fixed support model. Fixed support models result in over designed base columns and under designed beams. (author)
Full Text Available Explosion risk analysis (ERA is widely used to derive the dimensioning of accidental loads for design purposes. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD simulations contribute a key part of an ERA and predict possible blast consequences in a hazardous area. Explosion pressures can vary based on the model geometry, the explosion intensity, and explosion scenarios. Dynamic responses of structures under these explosion loads are dependent on a blast wave profile with respect to the magnitude of pressure, duration, and impulse in both positive and negative phases. Understanding the relationship between explosion load profiles and dynamic responses of the target area is important to mitigate the risk of explosion and perform structural design optimization. In the present study, the results of more than 3,000 CFD simulations were considered, and 1.6 million output files were analyzed using a visual basic for applications (VBA tool developed to characterize representative loading shapes. Dynamic response of a structure was investigated in both time and frequency domains using the Fast Fourier Transform (FFT algorithm. In addition, the effects of the residual wave and loading velocity were studied in this paper.
Stoll, Pia; Brandt, Nils; Nordström, Lars
Hourly demand response tariffs with the intention of reducing or shifting loads during peak demand hours are being intensively discussed among policy-makers, researchers and executives of future electricity systems. Demand response rates have still low customer acceptance, apparently because the consumption habits requires stronger incentive to change than any proposed financial incentive. An hourly CO 2 intensity signal could give customers an extra environmental motivation to shift or reduce loads during peak hours, as it would enable co-optimisation of electricity consumption costs and carbon emissions reductions. In this study, we calculated the hourly dynamic CO 2 signal and applied the calculation to hourly electricity market data in Great Britain, Ontario and Sweden. This provided a novel understanding of the relationships between hourly electricity generation mix composition, electricity price and electricity mix CO 2 intensity. Load shifts from high-price hours resulted in carbon emission reductions for electricity generation mixes where price and CO 2 intensity were positively correlated. The reduction can be further improved if the shift is optimised using both price and CO 2 intensity. The analysis also indicated that an hourly CO 2 intensity signal can help avoid carbon emissions increases for mixes with a negative correlation between electricity price and CO 2 intensity. - Highlights: • We present a formula for calculating hybrid dynamic CO 2 intensity of electricity generation mixes. • We apply the dynamic CO 2 Intensity on hourly electricity market prices and generation units for Great Britain, Ontario and Sweden. • We calculate the spearman correlation between hourly electricity market price and dynamic CO 2 intensity for Great Britain, Ontario and Sweden. • We calculate carbon footprint of shifting 1 kWh load daily from on-peak hours to off-peak hours using the dynamic CO 2 intensity. • We conclude that using dynamic CO 2 intensity for
Full Text Available In habitually loaded tissues, dynamic loading can trigger ATP (adenosine 5’- triphosphate release to extracellular environment, and result in calcium signaling via ATP binding to purine P2 receptors1. In the current study we have compared purinergic responses (ATP release of two types of cells: bovine chondrocytes (bCHs and human mesenchymal stem cells (hMSC that were encapsulated in agarose and subjected to dynamic loading. Both cell types were cultured under chondrogenic conditions, and their responses to loading were evaluated by ATP release assay in combination with connexin (Cx-sensitive fluorescent dye (Lucifer Yellow - LY and a Cx-hemichannel blocker (Flufenamic acid - FFA. In response to dynamic loading, chondrogenic hMSCs released significantly higher amounts of ATP (5-fold in comparison to the bCHs early in culture (day 2. Triggering of LY uptake in the bCHs and hMSCs by dynamic loading implies opening of the Cx-hemichannels. However, the number of LY-positive cells in hMSC-constructs was 2.5-fold lower compared to the loaded bCH-constructs, suggesting utilization of additional mechanisms of ATP release. Cx-reactive sites were detected in both bCHs and hMSCs-constructs. FFA application led to reduced ATP release both in bCHs and hMSCs, which confirms the involvement of connexin hemichannels, with more prominent effects in bCHs than in hMSCs, further implying the existence of additional mechanism of ATP release in chondrogenic hMSCs. Taken together, these results indicate stronger purinergic response to dynamic loading of chondrogenic hMSCs than primary chondrocytes, by activation of connexin hemichannels and additional mechanisms of ATP release. [Projekat Ministrastva nauke Republike Srbije, ON174028 i br. III41007
Atkinson, L. P.; Ezer, T.; De Young, R.; McShane, M. K.; McFarlane, B.
Coastal cities have been adapting to coastal flooding for centuries. Now, with increased population along the coast combined with increased flooding because of sea level rise (SLR) the vulnerability of coastal cities has increased significantly. In this paper we will discuss the physical threat of accelerating sea level rise and the response of stakeholders. Sallenger et al (2012) stated "... we present evidence of recently accelerated SLR in a unique 1,000-km-long hotspot on the highly populated North American Atlantic coast north of Cape Hatteras and show that it is consistent with a modeled fingerprint of dynamic SLR." In the Northeast Hotspot (NEH) dynamic processes such as Gulf Stream transport can cause local sea level differences (Ezer, 2001). Sweet et al (2009) attributed the anomalously high sea level along the mid-Atlantic in 2009 to dynamic SLR. A recent paper (Ezer and Corlett, 2012 submitted), focused on Chesapeake Bay, confirms Sallenger et al. These accelerations suggest that the higher estimates of SLR in IPCC reports may be better estimates. The combination of local sea level rise and acceleration, even with average coastal storm surge, results in increased vulnerability and economic losses. We will use three examples of stakeholder response to this threat: shipbuilding, cities and insurance. Nuclear aircraft carrier drydock in Newport News, VA - The only drydock where nuclear powered aircraft carriers are built flooded during Hurricane Isabel. A study showed that with a 1 meter sea level rise and no change in storm severity they would have 'Major Flooding' every 4 months rather than every 27 years. Cities infrastructure - In a recent report on sea level rise, the Hampton Roads Planning District Commission (representing nearly 2m people) found that "sea level rise will be a major issue", "there is not yet official state or federal guidance for addressing sea level rise", "…the "…U.S. Army Corps of Engineers has developed guidance…" for their
Jerome T. Tzeng
Full Text Available The fracture behavior due to dynamic response in a composite gun tube subjected to a moving pressure has been investigated. The resonance of stress waves result in very high amplitude and frequency strains in the tube at the instant and location of pressure front passage as the velocity of the projectile approaches a critical value. The cyclic stresses can accelerate crack propagation in the gun tube with an existing imperfection and significantly shorten the fatigue life of gun tubes. The fracture mechanism induced by dynamic amplification effects is particularly critical for composite overwrap barrels because of a multi-material construction, anisotropic material properties, and the potential of thermal degradation.
Full Text Available The increase of government debt continues and maintains the financial crisis as an additional risk factor at national, regional or global level. The causes which lead to the raise of the national debt can be found in the effects of a major crisis but, in turn, this phenomenon feeds imbalances generating economic and financial crisis. The importance of this topic is defined by its magnitude and dynamics, in the long-term effects on the economy, finances, policies and, ultimately, on the completeness of a state. Solutions are available to the national public authorities in the context of regional policy, but they are circumscribed also to the imperatives imposed by the international lenders. Not infrequently, their efficiency was affected by subjective factors, along with the lack of preventive actions or of proper long-term vision. There have been made references to the analysis of international bodies or financial authorities, at authors dedicated to this complex problem. As method of approach we have used the bibliographic study, processing and analysis of data, and previous researches. The results are the analysis and explanation of specific developments of sovereign debt crisis, of interactions, highlighting the effects and solutions. The research is an important basis for specialists, public authorities and academics. As value, the work is a synthesis and a comparative analysis so as to identify trends, responsibilities and solutions.
Rajput, Gaurav; Satish Kumar, V.; Selvaraj, T.; Ananda Rao, S.M.; Ravisankar, A.
The standard for balancing the rotating bowl describes only the details about the selection of balance quality grade and the permissible residual unbalance for different operating speeds. This paper presents the effects of unbalance on the rotating bowl of high speed centrifuge used in reprocessing of spent nuclear fuel. In this study, the residual unbalance is evaluated for different recommended balancing grades in accordance with the ISO 1940. This unbalance mass generates dynamic force which acts on the rotor. The dynamic response of the rotor like displacements and stresses under this dynamic force are studied by numerical simulation. Finally, the effect of residual unbalance on the rotating bowl performance for different balancing grades is discussed. The experimental measurements are also carried out for the case of G 1.0 grade balanced rotating bowl to validate the resonance frequency as well as vibration amplitudes. (author)
Full Text Available This paper presents the imperfection sensitivity of annular plate with three-layered structure. The plate composed of thin elastic facings and a thicker elastic core is loaded in facing plane. The classical issue of a three-layered plate was solved for dynamic deflection problem using the approximation methods: orthogonalization and finite difference. The solution includes the axisymmetric and asymmetric plate modes of the dynamic stability loss. The evaluation of the rate of plate sensitivity to imperfection of plate preliminary geometry has been enriched by the analysis of plate models built of finite elements. The ABAQUS program has been used. The numerous calculation results in the form of deflection characteristics, buckling modes, values of critical parameters create the view of response of dynamic plate structure with different rate of imperfection and linear in time loading growth, too.
Full Text Available Food production shocks can lead to food crises where access to appropriate quantities and quality of food become inadequate, unaffordable, or unreliable on a major scale. While the physical causes of food production shocks are well researched, the dynamics of responses to them are less well understood. This paper reviews those dynamics and includes evidence gathered via interviews of 44 expert practitioners sourced globally from academia, government, industry, think-tanks, and development/relief organizations. The paper confirms that policy interventions are often prioritised for national interests and poorly coordinated at regional and global scales. The paper acknowledges future compounding trends such as climate change and demographic shifts and suggests that while there are signs of incremental progress in better managing the impacts of shock events, coordinated responses at scale will require a paradigm shift involving major policy, market, and technological advancements, and a wide range of public and private sector stakeholders.
How a camp responds to a crisis may determine whether it can survive financially. Effective risk management requires total commitment from ownership and management, and staff involvement. Steps in formulating a risk management plan include identifying all potential crises and their frequency and severity potential, developing responses,…
Vangsted, A J; Helm-Petersen, S; Cowland, J B
from high-risk patients by GEP70 at diagnosis from Total Therapy 2 and 3A to predict the response by the DRP score of drugs used in the treatment of myeloma patients. The DRP score stratified patients further. High-risk myeloma with a predicted sensitivity to melphalan by the DRP score had a prolonged...
Eckel, S; Sushkov, A O; Lamoreaux, S K
We have built a high dynamic range (nine decade) transimpedance amplifier with a linear response. The amplifier uses junction-gate field effect transistors (JFETs) to switch between three different resistors in the feedback of a low input bias current operational amplifier. This allows for the creation of multiple outputs, each with a linear response and a different transimpedance gain. The overall bandwidth of the transimpedance amplifier is set by the bandwidth of the most sensitive range. For our application, we demonstrate a three-stage amplifier with transimpedance gains of approximately 10(9)Ω, 3 × 10(7)Ω, and 10(4)Ω with a bandwidth of 100 Hz.
Hansen, Jacob; Knudsen, Jesper Viese; Kiani, Arman
renewables, this mechanism accommodates both consumers with a shiftable Demand Response and an adjustable Demand Response. The overall market mechanism is evaluated in a Day Ahead Market and is shown in a numerical example to result in a reduction of the cost of electricity for the consumer, as well......In this paper, we propose a dynamic market mechanism that converges to the desired market equilibrium. Both locational marginal prices and the schedules for generation and consumption are determined through a negotiation process between the key market players. In addition to incorporating...
Blundel, Richard; Spence, Laura J.
Objectives: (1) To provide a constructive critique of the interface between the entrepreneurial growth dynamics research and social responsibility literatures; (2) to explore opportunities for making new connections between these literatures in order to address substantive ‘gaps’ in research and policy-making ; (3) to map the broader intellectual territory implied by this critique; (4) to outline a tentative research agenda. \\ud Prior work: The paper draws on two main strands of research: ent...
Jeffrey Hyde; Brent Gloy
The case of strategic advertising response is examined for branded and generic meat products (beef, pork, and poultry). A dynamic conceptual model is developed to identify the determinants of advertising expenditures. A time-series model is then used to examine the competitive behavior of branded and generic meat advertisers. The results identify two types of advertising strategies those based upon changes in revenues and those based upon changes in competitor advertising expenditures. Most g...
This study considers, in a geographical context, issues arising from the disposal of radioactive waste with particular emphasis on societal perceptions of Risk, Trust, NIMBYand Time. It establishes that the wider community now accepts the concepts of 'user pays' and offsetting compensation to any community that accepts a risk, such risk to be minimised and interruptible as necessary. The underlying causes of NIMBYism have been misjudged by industry and this work establishes that they are as much due to exclusion from the decision making process as they are to direct concerns about the social impact, health and environment. The principal cause of NIMBYism is discussed and a procedure to assist siting approval is suggested. This study establishes that industry, government authorities or specialists working alone in this field engender less trust by society than composite bodies including government departments, industry, environmentalists, health, science and society. The dimension of an individual's perception of forward time has been quantified and found to be much shorter than the time required for the isolation of radioactive waste. This research highlights the dynamic nature of all waste isolation processes and proposes a procedure that could render the concept of long term geological disposal more acceptable to the public. It evolved that the disposal of all waste is a dynamic process, the management of which must provide the time necessary for physical and chemical change and to ensure isolation from the biosphere while it remains hazardous. The outcome of this research is applicable to the disposal of all solid hazardous waste. (author)
Shelton Richard C
Full Text Available Abstract Background Inhibited temperament - the predisposition to respond to new people, places or things with wariness or avoidance behaviors - is associated with increased risk for social anxiety disorder and major depression. Although the magnitude of the amygdala's response to novelty has been identified as a neural substrate of inhibited temperament, there may also be differences in temporal dynamics (latency, duration, and peak. We hypothesized that persons with inhibited temperament would have faster responses to novel relative to familiar neutral faces compared to persons with uninhibited temperament. We used event-related functional magnetic resonance imaging to measure the temporal dynamics of the blood oxygen level dependent (BOLD response to both novel and familiar neutral faces in participants with inhibited or uninhibited temperament. Results Inhibited participants had faster amygdala responses to novel compared with familiar faces, and both longer and greater amygdala response to all faces. There were no differences in peak response. Conclusion Faster amygdala response to novelty may reflect a computational bias that leads to greater neophobic responses and represents a mechanism for the development of social anxiety.
Podobnik, B.; Horvatic, D.; Bertella, M. A.; Feng, L.; Huang, X.; Li, B.
Complex non-linear interactions between banks and assets we model by two time-dependent Erdős-Renyi network models where each node, representing a bank, can invest either to a single asset (model I) or multiple assets (model II). We use a dynamical network approach to evaluate the collective financial failure —systemic risk— quantified by the fraction of active nodes. The systemic risk can be calculated over any future time period, divided into sub-periods, where within each sub-period banks may contiguously fail due to links to either i) assets or ii) other banks, controlled by two parameters, probability of internal failure p and threshold Th (“solvency” parameter). The systemic risk decreases with the average network degree faster when all assets are equally distributed across banks than if assets are randomly distributed. The more inactive banks each bank can sustain (smaller Th), the smaller the systemic risk —for some Th values in I we report a discontinuity in systemic risk. When contiguous spreading becomes stochastic ii) controlled by probability p2 —a condition for the bank to be solvent (active) is stochastic— the systemic risk decreases with decreasing p2. We analyse the asset allocation for the U.S. banks.
Li, Fudong; Hou, Honghao; Yin, Jie; Jiang, Xuesong
Dynamic micro/nanopatterns provide an effective approach for on-demand tuning of surface properties to realize a smart surface. We report a simple yet versatile strategy for the fabrication of near-infrared (NIR) light-responsive dynamic wrinkles by using a carbon nanotube (CNT)-containing poly(dimethylsiloxane) (PDMS) elastomer as the substrate for the bilayer systems, with various functional polymers serving as the top stiff layers. The high photon-to-thermal energy conversion of CNT leads to the NIR-controlled thermal expansion of the elastic CNT-PDMS substrate, resulting in dynamic regulation of the applied strain (ε) of the bilayer system by the NIR on/off cycle to obtain a reversible wrinkle pattern. The switchable surface topological structures can transfer between the wrinkled state and the wrinkle-free state within tens of seconds via NIR irradiation. As a proof-of-concept application, this type of NIR-driven dynamic wrinkle pattern was used in smart displays, dynamic gratings, and light control electronics.
Keebler, Daniel; Walwyn, David; Welte, Alex
Population-type models, accounting for phenomena such as population lifetimes, mixing patterns, recruitment patterns, genetic evolution and environmental conditions, can be usefully applied to the biology of HIV infection and viral replication. A simple dynamic model can explore the effect of a vaccine-like stimulus on the mortality and infectiousness, which formally looks like fertility, of invading virions; the mortality of freshly infected cells; and the availability of target cells, all of which impact on the probability of infection. Variations on this model could capture the importance of the timing and duration of different key events in viral transmission, and hence be applied to questions of mucosal immunology. The dynamical insights and assumptions of such models are compatible with the continuum of between- and within-individual risks in sexual violence and may be helpful in making sense of the sparse data available on the association between HIV transmission and sexual violence. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons A/S.
From epidemiologic studies, we find no measurable increase in the incidences of birth defects and cancer after low-level exposure to radiation. Based on modern understanding of the molecular basis of teratogenesis and cancer, I attempt to explain thresholds observed in atomic bomb survivors, radium painters, uranium workers and patients injected with Thorotrast. Teratogenic injury induced by doses below threshold will be completely eliminated as a result of altruistic death (apoptosis) of injured cells. Various lines of evidence obtained show that oncomutations produced in cancerous cells after exposure to radiation are of spontaneous origin and that ionizing radiation acts not as an oncomutation inducer but as a tumor promoter by induction of chronic wound-healing activity. The tissue damage induced by radiation has to be repaired by cell growth and this creates opportunity for clonal expansion of a spontaneously occurring preneoplastic cell. If the wound-healing error model is correct, there must be a threshold dose range of radiation giving no increase in cancer risk. (author)
Risk factors for discordant immune response among HIV-infected patients initiating antiretroviral therapy: A retrospective cohort study. ... Multivariate logistic regression models were used to estimate adjusted odds ratios (AORs) to determine associations between discordant immune response and clinical and demographic ...
Liu, Yang; Li, Hongyan
Decision-making problems in emergency response are usually risky and uncertain due to the limited decision data and possible evolvement of emergency scenarios. This paper focuses on a risk decisionmaking problem in emergency response with several distinct characteristics including dynamic...... evolvement process of emergency, multiple scenarios, and impact of response actions on the emergency scenarios. A method based on Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) is proposed to solve the problem. By analyzing the evolvement process of emergency, the Fault Tree (FT) is constructed to describe the logical relations...
Rickard, Laura N
Accidents, one often hears, "happen"; we accept, and even expect, that they will be part of daily life. But in situations in which injury or death result, judgments of responsibility become critical. How might our perceptions of risk influence the ways in which we allocate responsibility for an accident? Drawing from attribution and risk perception theory, this study investigates how perceived controllability and desirability of risk, in addition to perceived danger and recreational risk-taking, relate to attributions of responsibility for the cause of unintentional injury in a unique setting: U.S. national parks. Three parks, Mount Rainier, Olympic, and Delaware Water Gap, provide the setting for this survey-based study, which considers how park visitors (N = 447) attribute responsibility for the cause of a hypothetical visitor accident. Results suggest that respondents tended to make more internal (i.e., related to characteristics of the victim), rather than external (i.e., related to characteristics of the park, or park management) attributions. As respondents viewed park-related risk as controllable, they were more likely to attribute the cause of the accident to the victim. Moreover, among other significant variables, having experienced a similar accident predicted lower internal causal attribution. Opportunities for future research linking risk perception and attribution variables, as well as practical implications for the management of public outdoor settings, are presented. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.
Full Text Available Mechanical perturbations applied to the wrist joint typically evoke a stereotypical sequence of cortical and muscle responses. The early cortical responses (<100 ms are thought be involved in the “rapid” transcortical reaction to the perturbation while the late cortical responses (>100 ms are related to the “slow” transcortical reaction. Although previous studies indicated that both responses involve the primary motor cortex, it remains unclear if both responses are engaged by the same effective connectivity in the cortical network. To answer this question, we investigated the effective connectivity cortical network after a “ramp-and-hold” mechanical perturbation, in both the early (<100 ms and late (>100 ms periods, using dynamic causal modeling. Ramp-and-hold perturbations were applied to the wrist joint while the subject maintained an isometric wrist flexion. Cortical activity was recorded using a 128-channel electroencephalogram (EEG. We investigated how the perturbation modulated the effective connectivity for the early and late periods. Bayesian model comparisons suggested that different effective connectivity networks are engaged in these two periods. For the early period, we found that only a few cortico-cortical connections were modulated, while more complicated connectivity was identified in the cortical network during the late period with multiple modulated cortico-cortical connections. The limited early cortical network likely allows for a rapid muscle response without involving high-level cognitive processes, while the complexity of the late network may facilitate coordinated responses.
Li, Lijie; Uttamchandani, Deepak
Mathematical modelling and characterization of the dynamic response of a microelectromechanical system (MEMS) electrothermal actuator are presented in this paper. The mathematical model is based on a second-order partial differential equation (one-dimensional heat transfer) and a second-order ordinary differential equation (mechanical dynamic equation). The simulations are implemented using the piecewise finite difference method and the Runge–Kutta algorithm. The electrothermal modelling includes thermal conduction, convective thermal loss and radiation effects. The temperature dependence of resistivity and thermal conductivity of single crystal silicon have also been taken into consideration in the electrothermal modelling. It is calculated from the simulation results that the 'cold' beam of the electrothermal actuator is not only a mechanical constraint but also a thermal response compensation structure. The 0–90% electrothermal rise times for the individual 'hot' and 'cold' beams are calculated to be 32.9 ms and 42.8 ms, respectively, while the 0–90% electrothermal rise time for the whole actuator is calculated to be 17.3 ms. Nonlinear cubic stiffness has been considered in the thermal-mechanical modelling. Dynamic performances of the device have been characterized using a laser vibrometer, and the 0–90% thermal response time of the whole structure has been measured to be 16.8 ms, which matches well with the modelling results. The displacements of the device under different driving conditions and at resonant frequency have been modelled and measured, and the results from both modelling and experiment agree reasonably well. This work provides a comprehensive understanding of the dynamic behaviour of the electrothermal actuation mechanism. The model will be useful for designing control systems for microelectrothermal actuated devices
Lou, Min; Yu, Chenglong; Chen, Peng
In this paper, the dynamic response of a marine riser under excitation of internal waves is studied. With the linear approximation, the governing equation of internal waves is given. Based on the rigid-lid boundary condition assumption, the equation is solved by Thompson-Haskell method. Thus the velocity field of internal waves is obtained by the continuity equation. Combined with the modified Morison formula, using finite element method, the motion equation of riser is solved in time domain with Newmark-β method. The computation programs are compiled to solve the differential equations in time domain. Then we get the numerical results, including riser displacement and transfiguration. It is observed that the internal wave will result in circular shear flow, and the first two modes have a dominant effect on dynamic response of the marine riser. In the high mode, the response diminishes rapidly. In different modes of internal waves, the deformation of riser has different shapes, and the location of maximum displacement shifts. Studies on wave parameters indicate that the wave amplitude plays a considerable role in response displacement of riser, while the wave frequency contributes little. Nevertheless, the internal waves of high wave frequency will lead to a high-frequency oscillation of riser; it possibly gives rise to fatigue crack extension and partial fatigue failure.
Schokkaert, Erik; Van de Voorde, Carine
Since 1995 Belgian sickness funds are partially financed through a risk adjustment system and are held partially financially responsible for the difference between their actual and their risk-adjusted expenditures. However, they did not get the necessary instruments for exerting a real influence on expenditures and the health insurance market has not been opened for new entrants. At the same time the sickness funds have powerful tools for risk selection, because they also dominate the market for supplementary health insurance. The present risk-adjustment system is based on the results of a regression analysis with aggregate data. The main proclaimed purpose of this system is to guarantee a fair treatment to all the sickness funds. Until now the danger of risk selection has not been taken seriously. Consumer mobility has remained rather low. However, since the degree of financial responsibility is programmed to increase in the near future, the potential profits from cream skimming will increase.
Gundlach, E.R.; Marben, G.M.
Under the sponsorship of the Alaska Dept. of Environmental Conservation (ADEC), a multitasked study was undertaken to determine the relative risk of noncrude oil transport (including marine and freshwater), the status of spill response capability in the state, and the need and most appropriate locations for siting spill response deposits. The project used multidisciplinary transport and environmental data analyzed in a geographic information system (GIS) to enable various scenarios and data changes to be easily visualized. The evaluation concerned (a) designation of significant environmental risk areas, (b) environmentally sensitive areas and fish and wildlife likely to be affected, (c) the level of response capability appropriate for protecting the environment, (d) the adequacy of current capabilities for noncrude vessels, (e) the feasibility of establishing one or more response cooperatives for use by multiple carriers, and (f) other steps that could be taken to reduce the risk of a spill and facilitate control and cleanup
... Environmental Management Risks and Risk Reduction Strategies § 102-80.50 Are Federal agencies responsible for... identify and estimate safety and environmental management risks and appropriate risk reduction strategies... responsible for identifying/estimating risks and for appropriate risk reduction strategies? 102-80.50 Section...
Horowitz, C.J.; Perez-Garcia, M.A.; Berry, D.K.; Piekarewicz, J.
The nuclear pasta - a novel state of matter having nucleons arranged in a variety of complex shapes - is expected to be found in the crust of neutron stars and in core-collapse supernovae at subnuclear densities of about 10 14 g/cm 3 . Owing to frustration, a phenomenon that emerges from the competition between short-range nuclear attraction and long-range Coulomb repulsion, the nuclear pasta displays a preponderance of unique low-energy excitations. These excitations could have a strong impact on many transport properties, such as neutrino propagation through stellar environments. The excitation spectrum of the nuclear pasta is computed via a molecular-dynamics simulation involving up to 100,000 nucleons. The dynamic response of the pasta displays a classical plasma oscillation in the 1- to 2-MeV region. In addition, substantial strength is found at low energies. Yet this low-energy strength is missing from a simple ion model containing a single-representative heavy nucleus. The low-energy strength observed in the dynamic response of the pasta is likely to be a density wave involving the internal degrees of freedom of the clusters
Shahrokh Hosseini Hashemi
Full Text Available In this article, nonlocal continuum based model of multiple nanobeam system (MNBS under a moving nanoparticle is investigated using Eringen’s nonlocal theory. Beam layers are assumed to be coupled by winkler elastic medium and the nonlocal Euler-Bernoulli beam theory is used to model each layer of beam. The Hamilton’s principle, Eigen function technique and the Laplace transform method are employed to solve the governing equations. Analytical solutions of the transverse displacements for MNBs with simply supported boundary condition are presented for double layered and three layered MNBSs. For higher number of layers, the governing set of equations is solved numerically and the results are presented. This study shows that small-scale parameter has a significant effect on dynamic response of MNBS under a moving nanoparticle. Sensitivity of dynamical deflection to variation of nonlocal parameter, stiffness of Winkler elastic medium and number of nanobeams are presented in nondimensional form for each layer. Keywords: Dynamic response, Analytical solution, Moving particle, Nanobeam, Multi-layered nanobeam
Cleary, Ciaran S.; Ji, Hua; Dailey, James M.
Amplitude and phase dynamics of silicon nanowires were measured using time-resolved spectroscopy. Time shifts of the maximum phase change and minimum amplitude as a function of pump power due to saturation of the free-carrier density were observed. A phenomenological impulse response model used t...
Wikman-Svahn, Per; Lindblom, Lars
Standard tools used in societal risk management such as probabilistic risk analysis or cost-benefit analysis typically define risks in terms of only probabilities and consequences and assume a utilitarian approach to ethics that aims to maximize expected utility. The philosopher Carl F. Cranor has argued against this view by devising a list of plausible aspects of the acceptability of risks that points towards a non-consequentialist ethical theory of societal risk management. This paper revisits Cranor's list to argue that the alternative ethical theory responsibility-catering prioritarianism can accommodate the aspects identified by Cranor and that the elements in the list can be used to inform the details of how to view risks within this theory. An approach towards operationalizing the theory is proposed based on a prioritarian social welfare function that operates on responsibility-adjusted utilities. A responsibility-catering prioritarian ethical approach towards managing risks is a promising alternative to standard tools such as cost-benefit analysis.
Kang, Kyung Min; Jae, Moosung
The potential magnitudes of radionuclide releases under severe accident loadings and offsite consequences as well as the overall risk (the product of accident frequencies and consequences) are analyzed and evaluated quantitatively in this study. The system dynamics methodology has been applied to predict the time-dependent behaviors such as feedback and dependency as well as to model uncertain behavior of complex physical system. It is used to construct the transfer mechanisms of time dependent radioactivity concentration and to evaluate them. Dynamic variations of radio activities are simulated by considering several effects such as deposition, weathering, washout, re-suspension, root uptake, translocation, leaching, senescence, intake, and excretion of soil. The time-dependent radio-ecological model applicable to Korean specific environment has been developed in order to assess the radiological consequences following the short-term deposition of radio-nuclides during severe accidents nuclear power plant. An ingestion food chain model can estimate time dependent radioactivity concentrations in foodstuffs. And it is also shown that the system dynamics approach is useful for analyzing the phenomenon of the complex system as well as the behavior of structure values with respect to time. The output of this model (Bq ingested per Bq m - 2 deposited) may be multiplied by the deposition and a dose conversion factor (Gy Bq -1 ) to yield organ-specific doses. The model may be run deterministically to yield a single estimate or stochastic distributions by 'Monte-Carlo' calculation that reflects uncertainty of parameter and model uncertainties. The results of this study may contribute to identifying the relative importance of various parameters occurred in consequence analysis, as well as to assessing risk reduction effects in accident management. (author)
Benjamin Still; ZhaoHui Joey Yang; Simon Evans; FuJun Niu
Wind is a great source of renewable energy in western Alaska. Consistent winds blow across the barren tundra underlain by warm permafrost in the winter season, when the energy demand is the highest. Foundation engineering in warm permafrost has always been a challenge in wind energy development. Degrading warm permafrost poses engineering issues to design, construction, and operation of wind turbines. This paper describes the foundation design of a wind turbine built in western Alaska. It presents a sys-tem for response monitoring and load assessment, and data collected from September 2013 to March 2014. The dynamic proper-ties are assessed based on the monitoring data, and seasonal changes in the dynamic properties of the turbine tower-foundation system and likely resonance between the spinning blades and the tower structure are discussed. These analyses of a wind turbine in warm permafrost are valuable for designing or retrofitting of foundations in warm permafrost.
Piping systems are connected to equipment; if the equipment cannot be considered as ''rigid'' relative to excitation frequencies, nozzle response spectra techniques, or equipment modeling techniques are used. If the equipment is considered rigid, a fixed anchor is assumed. However, occasionally after (seismic) dynamic analysis has been completed, tests or detailed equipment dynamic analyses demonstrate that the assumption of ''infinite stiff'' is questionable. This paper reviews several classes of equipment (pumps, vessels, reservoirs, heat exchangers), and the associated (piping stresses, support loads, equipment nozzle allowables). Significant divergences between design and ''as built'' results are shown (for heat exchangers in particular). The paper discusses the reconciliation process performed for a belgian PWR plant through the use of less conservative seismic damping data (Code Case N-411)
Robin van den Honert
Full Text Available This paper presents research into four key stakeholders in flood risk management in Australia: local councils, the insurance industry, the State Emergency Service (SES, and local residents; examining the perception of their own roles and responsibilities, and those of the other stakeholders. Key informant interviews were conducted in four locations—Brisbane and Emerald, in Queensland, Dora Creek, in New South Wales, and Benalla, in Victoria. We find that understanding of the roles and responsibilities of each stakeholder varied considerably between research participants. Insurance representatives felt their concerns about increasing flood risk costs were unheeded until the 2010–2011 floods made them the “canary in the coal mine”. Councils felt they had limited options for reducing flood risk. SES representatives felt they were too relied upon for event response, with requests for assistance outstripping their capacity to assist, and many residents were uncertain how to prepare for flood, relying on emergency agencies and the local council to protect them. Key lessons for flood risk management in Australia are (a an urgent need for all stakeholders to better understand each others’ roles and responsibilities; and (b residents must take greater responsibility for their own personal protection. Only then can the vision of shared responsibility presented by the 2009 National Strategy for Disaster Resilience be achieved.
Franović, Igor, E-mail: email@example.com [Scientific Computing Laboratory, Institute of Physics Belgrade, University of Belgrade, Pregrevica 118, 11080 Belgrade (Serbia); Kostić, Srdjan [Institute for the Development of Water Resources “Jaroslav Černi,” Jaroslava Černog 80, 11226 Belgrade (Serbia); Perc, Matjaž [Faculty of Natural Sciences and Mathematics, University of Maribor, Koroška cesta 160, SI-2000 Maribor (Slovenia); CAMTP—Center for Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, University of Maribor, Krekova 2, SI-2000 Maribor (Slovenia); Klinshov, Vladimir [Institute of Applied Physics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 46 Ulyanov Street, 603950 Nizhny Novgorod (Russian Federation); Nekorkin, Vladimir [Institute of Applied Physics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 46 Ulyanov Street, 603950 Nizhny Novgorod (Russian Federation); University of Nizhny Novgorod, 23 Prospekt Gagarina, 603950 Nizhny Novgorod (Russian Federation); Kurths, Jürgen [Institute of Applied Physics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 46 Ulyanov Street, 603950 Nizhny Novgorod (Russian Federation); Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14412 Potsdam (Germany); Institute of Physics, Humboldt University Berlin, 12489 Berlin (Germany)
We systematically study effects of external perturbations on models describing earthquake fault dynamics. The latter are based on the framework of the Burridge-Knopoff spring-block system, including the cases of a simple mono-block fault, as well as the paradigmatic complex faults made up of two identical or distinct blocks. The blocks exhibit relaxation oscillations, which are representative for the stick-slip behavior typical for earthquake dynamics. Our analysis is carried out by determining the phase response curves of first and second order. For a mono-block fault, we consider the impact of a single and two successive pulse perturbations, further demonstrating how the profile of phase response curves depends on the fault parameters. For a homogeneous two-block fault, our focus is on the scenario where each of the blocks is influenced by a single pulse, whereas for heterogeneous faults, we analyze how the response of the system depends on whether the stimulus is applied to the block having a shorter or a longer oscillation period.
Mehar, Kulmani; Panda, Subrata Kumar
In this article, the dynamic response of the carbon nanotube-reinforced functionally graded sandwich composite plate has been studied numerically with the help of finite element method. The face sheets of the sandwich composite plate are made of carbon nanotube- reinforced composite for two different grading patterns whereas the core phase is taken as isotropic material. The final properties of the structure are calculated using the rule of mixture. The geometrical model of the sandwich plate is developed and discretized suitably with the help of available shell element in ANSYS library. Subsequently, the corresponding numerical dynamic responses computed via batch input technique (parametric design language code in ANSYS) of ANSYS including Newmark’s integration scheme. The stability of the sandwich structural numerical model is established through the proper convergence study. Further, the reliability of the sandwich model is checked by comparison study between present and available results from references. As a final point, some numerical problems have been solved to examine the effect of different design constraints (carbon nanotube distribution pattern, core to face thickness ratio, volume fractions of the nanotube, length to thickness ratio, aspect ratio and constraints at edges) on the time-responses of sandwich plate.
Franović, Igor; Kostić, Srdjan; Perc, Matjaž; Klinshov, Vladimir; Nekorkin, Vladimir; Kurths, Jürgen
We systematically study effects of external perturbations on models describing earthquake fault dynamics. The latter are based on the framework of the Burridge-Knopoff spring-block system, including the cases of a simple mono-block fault, as well as the paradigmatic complex faults made up of two identical or distinct blocks. The blocks exhibit relaxation oscillations, which are representative for the stick-slip behavior typical for earthquake dynamics. Our analysis is carried out by determining the phase response curves of first and second order. For a mono-block fault, we consider the impact of a single and two successive pulse perturbations, further demonstrating how the profile of phase response curves depends on the fault parameters. For a homogeneous two-block fault, our focus is on the scenario where each of the blocks is influenced by a single pulse, whereas for heterogeneous faults, we analyze how the response of the system depends on whether the stimulus is applied to the block having a shorter or a longer oscillation period.
Liu, Xuefeng; Lu, Wei; Zhou, Xiaoying; Zhou, Yang; Zhang, Chenglong; Lai, Jiawei; Ge, Shaofeng; Sekhar, M. Chandra; Jia, Shuang; Chang, Kai; Sun, Dong
Black phosphorus (BP) has emerged as a promising material candidate for next generation electronic and optoelectronic devices due to its high mobility, tunable band gap and highly anisotropic properties. In this work, polarization resolved ultrafast mid-infrared transient reflection spectroscopy measurements are performed to study the dynamical anisotropic optical properties of BP under magnetic fields up to 9 T. The relaxation dynamics of photoexcited carrier is found to be insensitive to the applied magnetic field due to the broadening of the Landau levels and large effective mass of carriers. While the anisotropic optical response of BP decreases with increasing magnetic field, its enhancement due to the excitation of hot carriers is similar to that without magnetic field. These experimental results can be well interpreted by the magneto-optical conductivity of the Landau levels of BP thin film, based on an effective k · p Hamiltonian and linear response theory. These findings suggest attractive possibilities of multi-dimensional control of anisotropic response (AR) of BP with light, electric and magnetic field, which further introduces BP to the fantastic magnetic field sensitive applications.
Kuppannagari, Sanmukh R.; Kannan, Rajgopal; Chelmis, Charalampos; Prasanna, Viktor K.
In this paper, we describe a system for real-time automated Dynamic and Sustainable Demand Response with sparse data consumption prediction implemented on the University of Southern California campus microgrid. Supply side approaches to resolving energy supply-load imbalance do not work at high levels of renewable energy penetration. Dynamic Demand Response (D2R) is a widely used demand-side technique to dynamically adjust electricity consumption during peak load periods. Our D2R system consists of accurate machine learning based energy consumption forecasting models that work with sparse data coupled with fast and sustainable load curtailment optimization algorithms that provide the ability to dynamically adapt to changing supply-load imbalances in near real-time. Our Sustainable DR (SDR) algorithms attempt to distribute customer curtailment evenly across sub-intervals during a DR event and avoid expensive demand peaks during a few sub-intervals. It also ensures that each customer is penalized fairly in order to achieve the targeted curtailment. We develop near linear-time constant-factor approximation algorithms along with Polynomial Time Approximation Schemes (PTAS) for SDR curtailment that minimizes the curtailment error defined as the difference between the target and achieved curtailment values. Our SDR curtailment problem is formulated as an Integer Linear Program that optimally matches customers to curtailment strategies during a DR event while also explicitly accounting for customer strategy switching overhead as a constraint. We demonstrate the results of our D2R system using real data from experiments performed on the USC smartgrid and show that 1) our prediction algorithms can very accurately predict energy consumption even with noisy or missing data and 2) our curtailment algorithms deliver DR with extremely low curtailment errors in the 0.01-0.05 kWh range.
Liao, C-M; You, S-H; Cheng, Y-H
Influenza poses a significant public health burden worldwide. Understanding how and to what extent people would change their behaviour in response to influenza outbreaks is critical for formulating public health policies. We incorporated the information-theoretic framework into a behaviour-influenza (BI) transmission dynamics system in order to understand the effects of individual behavioural change on influenza epidemics. We showed that information transmission of risk perception played a crucial role in the spread of health-seeking behaviour throughout influenza epidemics. Here a network BI model provides a new approach for understanding the risk perception spread and human behavioural change during disease outbreaks. Our study allows simultaneous consideration of epidemiological, psychological, and social factors as predictors of individual perception rates in behaviour-disease transmission systems. We suggest that a monitoring system with precise information on risk perception should be constructed to effectively promote health behaviours in preparation for emerging disease outbreaks.
Schott, G.A.; Mallett, R.H.
The scope and status of a piping system dynamics test program are described. A 0.20-m nominal diameter test piping specimen is designed to be representative of main heat transport system piping of LMFBR plants. Attention is given to representing piping restraints. Applied loadings consider component-induced vibration as well as seismic excitation. The principal objective of the program is to provide a benchmark for verification of piping design methods by correlation of predicted and measured responses. Pre-test analysis results and correlation methods are discussed. 3 refs
Butler, R.I.; Forrestal, M.J.
A loading technique to study the dynamic response of tuff was explored. Loading is provided by electrically exploding etched copper mesh patterns with current from a capacitor discharge. Pressure pulses with peak pressures up to 1.25 kbar and 0.10 to 0.20 ms durations were measured with a pressure bar. The upper value of peak pressure was limited by the strength of the experimental apparatus, and higher pressure generation is possible with a redesign of test hardware. 6 figures, 2 tables
Xu Mei; Wang Lianghou; Li Xiaotian; Yu Suyuan; Zhang Zhengming; Wan Li
To weapons and equipment, blast wave is the primary destructive factor. In this paper, taken the real model-59 tank as an example, we try to transform the damage estimation problem into computing a fluid structure interaction problem with finite element method. The response of tank under nuclear explosion blast wave is computed with the general-coupling algorithm. Also, the dynamical interaction of blast wave and tank is reflected in real time. The deformation of each part of the tank is worked out and the result corresponds to the real-measured data. (authors)
Prasad, B.B.; Sinha, B.P.
The beam considered is a Timoshenko beam in which the effects of rotatory inertia and shear deformations are included and the foundation model consists of Winkler-Zimmermann type having Hookean linear elastic springs. The analysis is very useful for predicting the dynamic response of structural components of aircraft or nuclear reactors or even runways if that component may be mathematically idealized as a beam on elastic foundation. The effect of rotatory inertia and shear deformation is very much pronounced and hence should not be neglected in solving such impact problems. In general the effect of foundation modulus is to further increase the values of frequencies of vibrations. (orig./HP)
This paper describes the scope and status of a piping system dynamics test program. A 0.20 m(8 in.) nominal diameter test piping specimen is designed to be representative of main heat transport system piping of LMFBR plants. Particular attention is given to representing piping restraints. Applied loadings consider component-induced vibration as well as seismic excitation. The principal objective of the program is to provide a benchmark for verification of piping design methods by correlation of predicted and measured responses. Pre-test analysis results and correlation methods are discussed
Ghazvini, Mohammad Ali Fotouhi; Soares, Joao; Morais, Hugo
Retail energy providers (REPs) can employ different strategies such as offering demand response (DR) programs, participating in bilateral contracts, and employing self-generation distributed generation (DG) units to avoid financial losses in the volatile electricity markets. In this paper......, the problem of setting dynamic retail sales price by a REP is addressed with a robust optimization technique. In the proposed model, the REP offers price-based DR programs while it faces uncertainties in the wholesale market price. The main contribution of this paper is using a robust optimization approach...
Antwi, Shadrack; Shaw, Leah
Social network models have been used to study how behavior affects the dynamics of an infection in a population. Motivated by HIV, we consider how a trade-off between benefits and risks of sexual connections determine network structure and disease prevalence. We define a stochastic network model with formation and breaking of links as changes in sexual contacts. Each node has an intrinsic benefit its neighbors derive from connecting to it. Nodes' infection status is not apparent to others, but nodes with more connections (higher degree) are assumed more likely to be infected. The probability to form and break links is determined by a payoff computed from the benefit and degree-dependent risk. The disease is represented by a SI (susceptible-infected) model. We study network and epidemic evolution via Monte Carlo simulation and analytically predict the behavior with a heterogeneous mean field approach. The dependence of network connectivity and infection threshold on parameters is determined, and steady state degree distribution and epidemic levels are obtained. We also study a situation where system-wide infection levels alter perception of risk and cause nodes to adjust their behavior. This is a case of an adaptive network, where node status feeds back to change network geometry.
Ward, Patrick S.; Shively, Gerald E.
Households in developing countries take various actions to smooth income or consumption as a means of managing or responding to risk. One of the principal means of smoothing income is through the diversification of income sources, including non-farm employment and rural-urban migration. An important consumption smoothing strategy involves the accumulation and depletion of assets. We examine migration and land rental market participation as responses to risk in rural China. Using a longitudina...
P. P. M. A. R. HEUGENS; N. A. DENTCHEV
textabstractOrganizations are exposed to increasing pressures from their constituents to integrate corporate social responsibility (CSR) principles into their ongoing business practices. But accepting new and potentially open-ended commitments is not a harmless exercise, and companies may well expose themselves to serious risks when embracing such principles. To identify these risks, we conducted two naturalistic studies: one exploratory, the other corroborative. The results show that CSR ado...
Full Text Available Commercially produced hen eggs have been tested by means of dynamic excitation of the egg-shells with following analysis of their response. The falling steel ball have been chosen as a exciting instrument and the laser vibrometer have been used as a measuring device for the egg response. The reproductibility of the experiments has been relatively high and the surface velocity has been found to be significantly dependent on the position around the meridian. Analysed frequency spectrum has shown the peak frequency and frequency history. Proposed numerical model has demonstrated reasonable agreement with experimental results and can be used as an effective tool in modelling of analogous or similar experiments.
Lindell, M.K.; Barnes, V.E.
This article examines why, as suggested by the Three Mile Island Nuclear Station (TMI) event, the public is more inclined to evacuate in response to a radiation release than to a natural hazard. During the TMI incident, for example, did authorities present confusing or conflicting information or did the public have an exaggerated perception of radiation risk. Behavioral intention studies are combined with risk perception analyses to ascertain (1) the extent to which intentions to evacuate can be generalized from one sample to another and from one hazard to another, (2) the degree to which behavioral intentions are related to specific dimensions of risk perception, and (3) how public perceptions of risk compare with estimates of risk produced by reactor accident consequence analyses
The primary goal of good project risk management should be to successfully deliver projects for the lowest cost at an acceptable level of risk. This requires the systematic development and implementation of a set of Risk Response Actions (RRA) that achieves the lowest total project cost for a given probability of success while meeting technical performance and schedule. We refer to this set as the ''efficient RRA set''. This work presents a practical and mathematically sound approach for determining the efficient RRA set. It builds on some of Markowitz's portfolio selection principles and introduces several conceptual and modeling differences to properly treat project technical risks. The set of RRAs is treated as whole and not just individual risks. The efficient RRA set is determined based on ''Outcome Cost Vs Probability of Success''. The risks and RRAs are characterized using scenarios, decision trees, and cumulative probability distributions. The analysis provides information that enables decision-makers to select the efficient RRA set that explicitly takes their attitude toward project risk into account. Decision-makers should find it both useful and practical for sound decision-making under uncertainty/risk and efficiently optimizing project success. The computations are readily performed using commercially available Monte Carlo simulation tools. The approach is detailed using a realistic but simplified case of a project with two technical risks.
Full Text Available Nanomaterial science and design have shifted from generating single passive nanoparticles to more complex and adaptive multi-component nanohybrids. These adaptive nanohybrids (ANHs are designed to simultaneously perform multiple functions, while actively responding to the surrounding environment. ANHs are engineered for use as drug delivery carriers, in tissue-engineered templates and scaffolds, adaptive clothing, smart surface coatings, electrical switches and in platforms for diversified functional applications. Such ANHs are composed of carbonaceous, metallic or polymeric materials with stimuli-responsive soft-layer coatings that enable them to perform such switchable functions. Since ANHs are engineered to dynamically transform under different exposure environments, evaluating their environmental behavior will likely require new approaches. Literature on polymer science has established a knowledge core on stimuli-responsive materials. However, translation of such knowledge to environmental health and safety (EHS of these ANHs has not yet been realized. It is critical to investigate and categorize the potential hazards of ANHs, because exposure in an unintended or shifting environment could present uncertainty in EHS. This article presents a perspective on EHS evaluation of ANHs, proposes a principle to facilitate their identification for environmental evaluation, outlines a stimuli-based classification for ANHs and discusses emerging properties and dynamic aspects for systematic EHS evaluation.
Proud, William; Ellison, Kay; Yapp, Su; Cole, Cloe; Galimberti, Stefano; Institute of Shock Physics Team
The dynamic response of polymeric materials has been widely studied with the effects of degree of crystallinity, strain rate, temperature and sample size being commonly reported. This study uses a simple PMMA structure, a right cylindrical sample, with structural features such as holes. The features are added an varied in a systematic fashion. Samples were dynamically loaded using a Split Hopkinson Pressure Bar up to failure. The resulting stress-strain curves are presented showing the change in sample response. The strain to failure is shown to increase initially with the presence of holes, while failure stress is relatively unaffected. The fracture patterns seen in the failed samples change, with tensile cracks, Hertzian cones, shear effects being dominant for different holes sizes and geometries. The sample were prepared by laser cutting and checked for residual stress before experiment. The data is used to validate predictive model predictions where material, structure and damage are included.. The Institute of Shock Physics acknowledges the support of Imperial College London and the Atomic Weapons Establishment.
Morris, Aaron H; Mahal, Rajwant S; Udell, Jillian; Wu, Michelle; Kyriakides, Themis R
Pharmacological modulation of responses to injury is complicated by the need to deliver multiple drugs with spatiotemporal resolution. Here, a novel controlled delivery system containing three separate compartments with each releasing its contents over different timescales is fabricated. Core-shell electrospun fibers create two of the compartments in the system, while electrosprayed spheres create the third. Utility is demonstrated by targeting the foreign body response to implants because it is a dynamic process resulting in implant failure. Sequential delivery of a drug targeting nuclear factor-κB (NF-κB) and an antifibrotic is characterized in in vitro experiments. Specifically, macrophage fusion and p65 nuclear translocation in the presence of releasate or with macrophages cultured on the surfaces of the constructs are evaluated. In addition, releasate from pirfenidone scaffolds is shown to reduce transforming growth factor-β (TGF-β)-induced pSMAD3 nuclear localization in fibroblasts. In vivo, drug eluting constructs successfully mitigate macrophage fusion at one week and fibrotic encapsulation in a dose-dependent manner at four weeks, demonstrating effective release of both drugs over different timescales. Future studies can employ this system to improve and prolong implant lifetimes, or load it with other drugs to modulate other dynamic processes. © 2017 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.
Atisivan, R.; Bandyopadhyay, A.; Gupta, Y. M.
Plate impact experiments were carried out to examine the high strain-rate tensile response of alumina-aluminum (Al) composites with tailored microstructures. A novel processing technique was used to fabricate interpenetrating phase alumina-aluminum composites with controlled microstructures. Fused deposition modeling (FDM), a commercially available rapid prototyping technique, was used to produce the controlled porosity mullite ceramic preforms. Alumina-Al composites were then processed via reactive metal infiltration of porous mullite ceramics. With this approach, both the micro as well as the macro structures can be designed via computer aided design (CAD) to tailor the properties of the composites. Two sets of dynamic tensile experiments were performed. In the first, the metal content was varied between 23 and 39 wt. percent. In the second, the microstructure was varied while holding the metal content nearly constant. Samples with higher metal content, as expected, displayed better spall resistance. For a given metal content, samples with finer metal diameter showed better spall resistance. Relationship of the microstructural parameters on the dynamic tensile response of the structured composites is discussed here
Full Text Available Adaptation of the chemotaxis sensory pathway of the bacterium Escherichia coli is integral for detecting chemicals over a wide range of background concentrations, ultimately allowing cells to swim towards sources of attractant and away from repellents. Its biochemical mechanism based on methylation and demethylation of chemoreceptors has long been known. Despite the importance of adaptation for cell memory and behavior, the dynamics of adaptation are difficult to reconcile with current models of precise adaptation. Here, we follow time courses of signaling in response to concentration step changes of attractant using in vivo fluorescence resonance energy transfer measurements. Specifically, we use a condensed representation of adaptation time courses for efficient evaluation of different adaptation models. To quantitatively explain the data, we finally develop a dynamic model for signaling and adaptation based on the attractant flow in the experiment, signaling by cooperative receptor complexes, and multiple layers of feedback regulation for adaptation. We experimentally confirm the predicted effects of changing the enzyme-expression level and bypassing the negative feedback for demethylation. Our data analysis suggests significant imprecision in adaptation for large additions. Furthermore, our model predicts highly regulated, ultrafast adaptation in response to removal of attractant, which may be useful for fast reorientation of the cell and noise reduction in adaptation.
The aim of the present study was to examine patient adverse events associated with sub-optimal patient moving and handling. Few studies have examined the patient's perspective on adverse risk during manual handling episodes. A narrative review was undertaken to develop the 'Dynamic Interaction Model of Patient Moving and Handling' in an orthopaedic rehabilitation setting, using peer-reviewed publications published in English between 1992 and 2010. Five predominant themes emerged from the narrative review: 'patient's need to know about analgesics prior to movement/ambulation'; 'comfort care'; 'mastery of and acceptance of mobility aids/equipment'; 'psychological adjustment to fear of falling'; and 'the need for movement to prevent tissue pressure damage'. Prevalence of discomfort, pain, falls, pressure sores together with a specific Direct Instrument Nursing Observation (DINO) tool enable back care advisers to measure quality of patient manual handling. Evaluation of patients' use of mobility aids together with fear of falling may be important in determining patients' recovery trajectory. Clinical governance places a responsibility on nurse managers to consider quality of care for their service users. 'Dynamic Interaction Model of Nurse-Patient Moving and Handling' provides back care advisers, clinical risk managers and occupational health managers with an alternative perspective to clinical risk and occupational risk. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
Full Text Available We study effects of risk-averse attitude of both participators in aviation joint emergency response on the coevolution of cooperation mechanisms and individual preferences between airport and nonprofit organization. First, based on the current aviation joint emergency mechanism in China, we put forward two mechanisms to select the joint nonprofit organization, including reputation cooperation and bidding competition. Meanwhile, we consider two preferences including altruism and selfishness. Then we build replicator dynamics equations using the theory of conditional value-at-risk (CVaR taking risk aversion attitude into account. Finally, we introduce the factor of government and give all participators some suggestions. We show that the risk-averse attitude of the other game participator affects the one participator’s decision and the effects subject to some parameters.
Full Text Available This paper explores the potential diversification benefits of socially responsible investments for conventional stock portfolios by examining the risk spillovers and dynamic correlations between conventional and sustainability stock indexes from a number of regions. We observe significant unidirectional volatility transmissions from conventional to sustainable equities, suggesting that the criteria applied for socially responsible investments do not necessarily shield these securities from common market shocks. While significant dynamic correlations are observed between sustainable and conventional stocks, particularly in Europe, the analysis of both in- and out-of-sample dynamic portfolios suggests that supplementing conventional stock portfolios with sustainable counterparts improves the risk/return profile of stock portfolios in all regions. The findings overall suggest that sustainable investments can indeed provide diversification gains for conventional stock portfolios globally.
The knowledge of the places where we live comes both from the experience handed down from one generation to the other and from scientific knowledge. In some cases, natural risks are "invisible", such as earthquakes, in some other cases, natural risks are seemingly "invisible", such as a wall in danger of collapse or a valley in a flood zone. And besides all this, there is volcanic risk, where the power of the forces of nature appears in all its beauty and majesty. The possibility to see volcanoes, to perceive their changes, to observe them closely and the need to live with them, makes it very important for the population living in these areas to have an adequate knowledge of the risk, a knowledge that should be based on scientific research. In Italy the experience of the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia in the Vesuvio area, in the Aeolian Islands and around Etna shows how vital it is to make people aware of volcanic risk. Thanks to the support of the scientific community, the population can develop the best possible coexistence with volcanoes and with the risk they represent. These are extreme situations, but they are the starting point for educational and informative activities continuing to evolve and upgrade in parallel to the availability of new technologies and media and the progress of research that INGV has been conducting for years through specific projects. The scientific community and individual researchers have the ethical duty to share with the community the knowledge on risk, a responsibility that becomes especially important in those areas affected by volcanic risk. It is from this educational action that depends on the awareness of the populations with regard to the risk they are exposed to, that results in a responsible behavior in case of emergency, and that becomes the main variable for the safety of communities coexisting with active volcanoes.
Wieland, Patricia; Lustosa, Leonardo J.
Although feasibility studies indicate that industrial irradiation can be sound business, some initiatives fail in few years. In Brazil, the operation of some industrial irradiation plants has been discontinued in spite of the growing export market for tropical fruits like mangoes and papayas, of which Brazil is one of the major producers. This paper discusses the overall aspects of the food irradiation in Brazil, singles out dynamic operation risk management as an important need and provides suggestions for further developments. This research work involves literature review as well as interviews with irradiation industry stake holders in order to identify the ORs and to assess the situation in a logical and integrated way. The results show that public acceptance is not a major issue for the food preservation industry in Brazil. On the contrary, evidences show that there is public support, provided that information on the subject is disseminated among consumers. Need for improvements have been detected in the areas of industrial operational risk management, external relations for export, and regulatory issues, among others to support decision making in establishing and developing industrial food irradiation capabilities to serve Brazilian tropical fruit exports. (author)
Jaworske, D. A.; Myers, J. G.; Goodenow, D.; Young, M.; Arellano, J. D.
Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a modeling tool used to predict potential outcomes of a complex system based on a statistical understanding of many initiating events. Utilizing a Monte Carlo method, thousands of instances of the model are considered and outcomes are collected. PRA is considered static, utilizing probabilities alone to calculate outcomes. Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment (dPRA) is an advanced concept where modeling predicts the outcomes of a complex system based not only on the probabilities of many initiating events, but also on a progression of dependencies brought about by progressing down a time line. Events are placed in a single time line, adding each event to a queue, as managed by a planner. Progression down the time line is guided by rules, as managed by a scheduler. The recently developed Integrated Medical Model (IMM) summarizes astronaut health as governed by the probabilities of medical events and mitigation strategies. Managing the software architecture process provides a systematic means of creating, documenting, and communicating a software design early in the development process. The software architecture process begins with establishing requirements and the design is then derived from the requirements.
Thigpen, Eric B.; Boyer, Roger L.; Stewart, Michael A.; Fougere, Pete
The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Safety & Mission Assurance (S&MA) directorate at the Johnson Space Center (JSC) has applied its knowledge and experience with Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to projects in industries ranging from spacecraft to nuclear power plants. PRA is a comprehensive and structured process for analyzing risk in complex engineered systems and/or processes. The PRA process enables the user to identify potential risk contributors such as, hardware and software failure, human error, and external events. Recent developments in the oil and gas industry have presented opportunities for NASA to lend their PRA expertise to both ongoing and developmental projects within the industry. This paper provides an overview of the PRA process and demonstrates how this process was applied in estimating the probability that a Mobile Offshore Drilling Unit (MODU) operating in the Gulf of Mexico and equipped with a generically configured Dynamic Positioning System (DPS) loses location and needs to initiate an emergency disconnect. The PRA described in this paper is intended to be generic such that the vessel meets the general requirements of an International Maritime Organization (IMO) Maritime Safety Committee (MSC)/Circ. 645 Class 3 dynamically positioned vessel. The results of this analysis are not intended to be applied to any specific drilling vessel, although provisions were made to allow the analysis to be configured to a specific vessel if required.
Anna L Javier
Full Text Available Cellular responses to Bmp ligands are regulated at multiple levels, both extracellularly and intracellularly. Therefore, the presence of these growth factors is not an accurate indicator of Bmp signaling activity. While a common approach to detect Bmp signaling activity is to determine the presence of phosphorylated forms of Smad1, 5 and 8 by immunostaining, this approach is time consuming and not quantitative. In order to provide a simpler readout system to examine the presence of Bmp signaling in developing animals, we developed BRE-gal mouse embryonic stem cells and a transgenic mouse line that specifically respond to Bmp ligand stimulation. Our reporter identifies specific transcriptional responses that are mediated by Smad1 and Smad4 with the Schnurri transcription factor complex binding to a conserved Bmp-Responsive Element (BRE, originally identified among Drosophila, Xenopus and human Bmp targets. Our BRE-gal mES cells specifically respond to Bmp ligands at concentrations as low as 5 ng/ml; and BRE-gal reporter mice, derived from the BRE-gal mES cells, show dynamic activity in many cellular sites, including extraembryonic structures and mammary glands, thereby making this a useful scientific tool.
Marchenko, Nataly A.; Andreassen, Natalia; Borch, Odd Jarl
The sea ice in the Arctic has shrunk significantly in the last decades. The transport pattern has as a result partly changed with more traffic in remote areas. This change may influence the risk pattern. The critical factors are harsh weather, ice conditions, remoteness and vulnerability of natur...... are rare, there are limited statistics available for Arctic maritime accidents. Hence, this study offers a qualitative analysis and an expert-based risk assessment. Implications for the emergency preparedness system of the Arctic region are discussed........ In this paper, we look into the risk of accidents in Atlantic Arctic based on previous ship accidents and the changes in maritime activity. The risk has to be assessed to ensure a proper level of emergency response. The consequences of incidents depend on the incident type, scale and location. As accidents...
Full Text Available Developing a suitable mechanism to stimulate the effective redeployment of capital to social activities can be designed using the corporate social responsibility (CSR concept. Informational asymmetry about the real state of social risks influences the effectiveness of allocations in social protection. Reducing information asymmetries can be achieved by providing the corporations with socially determined risk profiles based on predetermined patterns. Offering concrete lines of action following the risk profiles approach which to base investment decisions of companies in CSR can maximize the results of such a mechanism. In a previous study the authors have developed a theoretical model for determining the poverty risk profile. This study aims to present the practical application of the theoretical model and to provide comments on some errors. Hence, the authors analyzed Buzau county municipalities in presenting the highest risk level determined by the theoretical model and related causes and performed an impact assessment of an investment in CSR based on a model. Specifically, the authors evaluated the impact of reducing the risk of poverty for a suitable investment in CSR. In the second part of the study, the authors analyzed the types of errors that can be found in the municipalities risk profile model due to the granularity of the data. Thus, for the error of over-inclusion, the authors assessed social allocative efficiency at the community level using benchmarking analysis, Data Envelopment respectively and analyzed the data of the under-inclusion error in Buzau county villages. The paper aims to analyze the relative limits on quantitative models and risk of poverty and the practical implementation of these types of models in the development of corporate social responsibility. The study provides also a useful tool which can be made available to companies in order to increase the vulnerable groups’ life quality and the satisfaction of
Background Aphids are striking in their prodigious reproductive capacity and reliance on microbial endosymbionts, which provision their hosts with necessary amino acids and provide protection against parasites and heat stress. Perhaps as a result of this bacterial dependence, aphids have limited immune function that may leave them vulnerable to bacterial pathogens. An alternative, non-immunological response that may be available to infected aphids is to increase reproduction, thereby ameliorating fitness loss from infection. Such a response would reduce the need to mount a potentially energetically costly immune response, and would parallel that of other hosts that alter life-history traits when there is a risk of infection. Here we examined whether pea aphids (Acyrthosiphon pisum) respond to immunological challenges by increasing reproduction. As a comparison to the response to the internal cue of risk elicited by immunological challenge, we also exposed pea aphids to an external cue of risk - the aphid alarm pheromone (E)-β-farnesene (EBF), which is released in the presence of predators. For each challenge, we also examined whether the presence of symbionts modified the host response, as maintaining host fitness in the face of challenge would benefit both the host and its dependent bacteria. Results We found that aphids stabbed abdominally with a sterile needle had reduced fecundity relative to control aphids but that aphids stabbed with a needle bearing heat-killed bacteria had reproduction intermediate, and statistically indistinguishable, to the aphids stabbed with a sterile needle and the controls. Aphids with different species of facultative symbiotic bacteria had different reproductive patterns overall, but symbionts in general did not alter aphid reproduction in response to bacterial exposure. However, in response to exposure to alarm pheromone, aphids with Hamiltonella defensa or Serratia symbiotica symbiotic infections increased reproduction but those
We present a study of the dynamic behavior of a MEMS device constituted of an imperfect clamped-clamped microbeam subjected to electrostatic and electrodynamic actuation. Our objective is to develop a theoretical analysis, which is able to describe and predict all the main relevant aspects of the experimental response. Extensive experimental investigation is conducted, where the main imperfections coming from microfabrication are detected and the nonlinear dynamics are explored at increasing values of electrodynamic excitation, in a neighborhood of the first symmetric resonance. The nonlinear behavior is highlighted, which includes ranges of multistability, where the non-resonant and the resonant branch coexist, and intervals where superharmonic resonances are clearly visible. Numerical simulations are performed. Initially, two single mode reduced-order models are considered. One is generated via the Galerkin technique, and the other one via the combined use of the Ritz method and the Padé approximation. Both of them are able to provide a satisfactory agreement with the experimental data. This occurs not only at low values of electrodynamic excitation, but also at higher ones. Their computational efficiency is discussed in detail, since this is an essential aspect for systematic local and global simulations. Finally, the theoretical analysis is further improved and a two-degree-of-freedom reduced-order model is developed, which is capable also to capture the measured second symmetric superharmonic resonance. Despite the apparent simplicity, it is shown that all the proposed reduced-order models are able to describe the experimental complex nonlinear dynamics of the device accurately and properly, which validates the proposed theoretical approach. Copyright © 2013 by ASME.
Olaoye, Abiodun; Wang, Zhicheng; Triantafyllou, Michael
Flexible cylinders with low mass ratios such as composite risers are attractive in the offshore industry because they require lower top tension and are less likely to buckle under self-weight compared to steel risers. However, their relatively low stiffness characteristics make them more vulnerable to vortex induced vibrations. Additionally, numerical investigation of the dynamic responses of such structures based on realistic conditions is limited by high Reynolds number, complex sheared flow profile, large aspect ratio and low mass ratio challenges. In the framework of Fourier spectral/hp element method, the current technique employs entropy-viscosity method (EVM) based large-eddy simulation approach for flow solver and fictitious added mass method for structure solver. The combination of both methods can handle fluid-structure interaction problems at high Reynolds number with low mass ratio. A validation of the numerical approach is provided by comparison with experiments.
Ibsen, Lars Bo
The soil beneath vertical breakwaters is subjected to a combination of forces induced by the waves. The forces acting on the soil can be characterized as 1) static load due to submerged weight of the structure, 2) quasi-static forces induced by cyclic wave loading, and 3) wave impact from breaking...... waves. The stress conditions in the soil below a foundation exposed to these types of loading are very complex. The key to explain and quantify the soil response beneath a vertical breakwater is to understand the role of the volume changes and to be able to model these correctly. It is shown...... that the volume changes in soil subjected to static and dynamic loading are controlled by the characteristic line. Experiments have been performed to study the factors that influence the location of the characteristic line in drained and undrained tests for various types of sand and various types of loading...
Chinellato, David D.; Epstein, Irving R.; Braha, Dan; Bar-Yam, Yaneer; de Aguiar, Marcus A. M.
We give exact statistical distributions for the dynamic response of influence networks subjected to external perturbations. We consider networks whose nodes have two internal states labeled 0 and 1. We let nodes be frozen in state 0, in state 1, and the remaining nodes change by adopting the state of a connected node with a fixed probability per time step. The frozen nodes can be interpreted as external perturbations to the subnetwork of free nodes. Analytically extending and to be smaller than 1 enables modeling the case of weak coupling. We solve the dynamical equations exactly for fully connected networks, obtaining the equilibrium distribution, transition probabilities between any two states and the characteristic time to equilibration. Our exact results are excellent approximations for other topologies, including random, regular lattice, scale-free and small world networks, when the numbers of fixed nodes are adjusted to take account of the effect of topology on coupling to the environment. This model can describe a variety of complex systems, from magnetic spins to social networks to population genetics, and was recently applied as a framework for early warning signals for real-world self-organized economic market crises.
Full Text Available The understanding of interaction dynamics in signaling pathways can shed light on pathway architecture and provide insights into targets for intervention. Here, we explored the relevance of kinetic rate constants of a key upstream osmosensor in the yeast high-osmolarity glycerol-mitogen-activated protein kinase (HOG-MAPK pathway to signaling output responses. We created mutant pairs of the Sln1-Ypd1 complex interface that caused major compensating changes in the association (kon and dissociation (koff rate constants (kinetic perturbations but only moderate changes in the overall complex affinity (Kd. Yeast cells carrying a Sln1-Ypd1 mutant pair with moderate increases in kon and koff displayed a lower threshold of HOG pathway activation than wild-type cells. Mutants with higher kon and koff rates gave rise to higher basal signaling and gene expression but impaired osmoadaptation. Thus, the kon and koff rates of the components in the Sln1 osmosensor determine proper signaling dynamics and osmoadaptation.
Storer, Luke N.; Williams, Paul D.; Gill, Philip G.
Atmospheric turbulence is a major hazard in the aviation industry and can cause injuries to passengers and crew. Understanding the physical and dynamical generation mechanisms of turbulence aids with the development of new forecasting algorithms and, therefore, reduces the impact that it has on the aviation industry. The scope of this paper is to review the dynamics of aviation turbulence, its response to climate change, and current forecasting methods at the cruising altitude of aircraft. Aviation-affecting turbulence comes from three main sources: vertical wind shear instabilities, convection, and mountain waves. Understanding these features helps researchers to develop better turbulence diagnostics. Recent research suggests that turbulence will increase in frequency and strength with climate change, and therefore, turbulence forecasting may become more important in the future. The current methods of forecasting are unable to predict every turbulence event, and research is ongoing to find the best solution to this problem by combining turbulence predictors and using ensemble forecasts to increase skill. The skill of operational turbulence forecasts has increased steadily over recent decades, mirroring improvements in our understanding. However, more work is needed—ideally in collaboration with the aviation industry—to improve observations and increase forecast skill, to help maintain and enhance aviation safety standards in the future.
Full Text Available The dynamic (shock responses of two carbon fiber-filled polymer composites have been quantified using gas gun-driven plate impact experimentation. The first composite is a filament-wound, highly unidirectional carbon fiber-filled epoxy with a high degree of porosity. The second composite is a chopped carbon fiber- and graphite-filled phenolic resin with little-to-no porosity. Hugoniot data are presented for the carbon fiber-epoxy (CE composite to 18.6 GPa in the through-thickness direction, in which the shock propagates normal to the fibers. The data are best represented by a linear Rankine-Hugoniot fit: Us = 2.87 + 1.17 ×up(ρ0 = 1.536g/cm3. The shock wave structures were found to be highly heterogeneous, both due to the anisotropic nature of the fiber-epoxy microstructure, and the high degree of void volume. Plate impact experiments were also performed on a carbon fiber-filled phenolic (CP composite to much higher shock input pressures, exceeding the reactants-to-products transition common to polymers. The CP was found to be stiffer than the filament-wound CE in the unreacted Hugoniot regime, and transformed to products near the shock-driven reaction threshold on the principal Hugoniot previously shown for the phenolic binder itself.  On-going research is focused on interrogating the direction-dependent dyanamic response and dynamic failure strength (spall for the CE composite in the TT and 0∘ (fiber directions.
Strom, Daniel J.
The notion of a dose-response relationship was probably invented shortly after the discovery of poisons, the invention of alcoholic beverages, and the bringing of fire into a confined space in the forgotten depths of ancient prehistory. The amount of poison or medicine ingested can easily be observed to affect the behavior, health, or sickness outcome. Threshold effects, such as death, could be easily understood for intoxicants, medicine, and poisons. As Paracelsus (1493-1541), the 'father' of modern toxicology said, 'It is the dose that makes the poison.' Perhaps less obvious is the fact that implicit in such dose-response relationships is also the notion of dose rate. Usually, the dose is administered fairly acutely, in a single injection, pill, or swallow; a few puffs on a pipe; or a meal of eating or drinking. The same amount of intoxicants, medicine, or poisons administered over a week or month might have little or no observable effect. Thus, before the discovery of ionizing radiation in the late 19th century, toxicology ('the science of poisons') and pharmacology had deeply ingrained notions of dose-response relationships. This chapter demonstrates that the notion of a dose-response relationship for ionizing radiation is hopelessly simplistic from a scientific standpoint. While useful from a policy or regulatory standpoint, dose-response relationships cannot possibly convey enough information to describe the problem from a quantitative view of radiation biology, nor can they address societal values. Three sections of this chapter address the concepts, observations, and theories that contribute to the scientific input to the practice of managing risks from exposure to ionizing radiation. The presentation begins with irradiation regimes, followed by responses to high and low doses of ionizing radiation, and a discussion of how all of this can inform radiation risk management. The knowledge that is really needed for prediction of individual risk is presented
Communication of climate change (CC) risks is challenging, in particular if global-scale spatially resolved quantitative information is to be conveyed. Typically, visualization of CC risks, which arise from the combination of hazard, exposure and vulnerability, is confined to showing only the hazards in the form of global thematic maps. This paper explores the potential of contiguous value-by-area cartograms, that is, distorted density-equalizing maps, for improving communication of CC risks and the countries' differentiated responsibilities for CC. Two global-scale cartogram sets visualize, as an example, groundwater-related CC risks in 0.5° grid cells, another one the correlation of (cumulative) fossil-fuel carbon dioxide emissions with the countries' population and gross domestic product. Viewers of the latter set visually recognize the lack of global equity and that the countries' wealth has been built on harmful emissions. I recommend that CC risks are communicated by bivariate gridded cartograms showing the hazard in color and population, or a combination of population and a vulnerability indicator, by distortion of grid cells. Gridded cartograms are also appropriate for visualizing the availability of natural resources to humans. For communicating complex information, sets of cartograms should be carefully designed instead of presenting single cartograms. Inclusion of a conventionally distorted map enhances the viewers' capability to take up the information represented by distortion. Empirical studies about the capability of global cartograms to convey complex information and to trigger moral emotions should be conducted, with a special focus on risk communication.
Wang, T.; Sun, Y.S.
Through the use of a theoretically derived and test data-calibrated forcing function, the dynamic response of a piping system subject to flow-acoustic induced vibration is analyzed. It is shown that the piping behavior can be predicted when consideration is given to both the wall flexural vibration and the piping system vibration. Piping responded as a system to the transversal excitation due to the swirling motion of the fluid flow, as well as flexurally to the high-frequency acoustic excitations. The transverse piping system response was calculated using a lumped mass piping model. The piping model has more stringent requirements than its counterpart for waterhammer and seismic modeling due to the shorter spiral wavelength and higher frequency of the forcing function. Proper modeling ensured that both the moment stress caused by system excitation and the local stress induced by the support reaction load were properly accounted for. Flexural vibration not only poses a threat to nipples and branch connections, but also contributes substantially to the resultant total stress experienced by the pipe. The forcing function approach has the advantage that the critical locations on the piping system can be identified by means of analysis, facilitating surveillance and inspection, as well as fatigue evaluation
Guzman, Christine; Conaco, Cecilia
Marine sponges are important members of coral reef ecosystems. Thus, their responses to changes in ocean chemistry and environmental conditions, particularly to higher seawater temperatures, will have potential impacts on the future of these reefs. To better understand the sponge thermal stress response, we investigated gene expression dynamics in the shallow water sponge, Haliclona tubifera (order Haplosclerida, class Demospongiae), subjected to elevated temperature. Using high-throughput transcriptome sequencing, we show that these conditions result in the activation of various processes that interact to maintain cellular homeostasis. Short-term thermal stress resulted in the induction of heat shock proteins, antioxidants, and genes involved in signal transduction and innate immunity pathways. Prolonged exposure to thermal stress affected the expression of genes involved in cellular damage repair, apoptosis, signaling and transcription. Interestingly, exposure to sublethal temperatures may improve the ability of the sponge to mitigate cellular damage under more extreme stress conditions. These insights into the potential mechanisms of adaptation and resilience of sponges contribute to a better understanding of sponge conservation status and the prediction of ecosystem trajectories under future climate conditions.
Takezono, S.; Tao, K.
The authors study the large deflection elasto/visco-plastic dynamic response of shells of revolution to strong blast loads, where the viscosity of the material is considered in the plastic range. The equations of motion and the relations between the strain and the displacement are derived from the Sanders nonlinear theory for thin shells. The constitutive relation for shell response is linear elastic, visco-plastic. In the linear elastic range Hooke's law is used. In the plastic range the elasto/visco-plastic equations by Fyfe based on the model developed by Perzyna are employed. The criterion for yielding used in this analysis is the von Mises yield theory. The numerical method selected for integration of the equations of motion is a method using finite difference in both space and time. The differential equations are written in finite difference form on the basis of the parabola method. For the time integration of the equations of motion the second-order finite difference in time is used. The equations of motion are thus expressed in finite difference form if we divide the shell into segments along meridional length and around the circumference. Resultant forces and resultant moments are given from numerical integration by Simpson's 1/3 rule. The loadings which are considered in this paper may be either impulsive or of finite time duration. (Auth.)
Eide, Magnus S; Endresen, Oyvind; Breivik, Oyvind; Brude, Odd Willy; Ellingsen, Ingrid H; Røang, Kjell; Hauge, Jarle; Brett, Per Olaf
This paper presents a new dynamic environmental risk model, with intended use within a new, dynamical approach for risk based ship traffic prioritisation. The philosophy behind this newly developed approach is that shipping risk can be reduced by directing efforts towards ships and areas that have been identified as high priority (high risk), prior to a potential accident. The risk model proposed in this paper separates itself from previous models by drawing on available information on dynamic factors and by focusing on the ship's surroundings. The model estimates the environmental risk of drift grounding accidents for oil tankers in real time and in forecast mode, combining the probability of grounding with oil spill impact on the coastline. Results show that the inherent dynamic risk introduced by an oil tanker sailing along the North Norwegian coast depends, not surprisingly, significantly upon wind and ocean currents, as well as tug position and cargo oil type. Results of this study indicate that the risk model is well suited for real time risk assessment, and effectively separates low risk and high risk situations. The model is well suited as a tool to prioritise oil tankers and coastal segments. This enables dynamic risk based positioning of tugs, using both real-time and projected risk, for effective support in case of a drifting ship situation.
Takemori, T.; Sotomura, K.; Yamada, M.
A computer program was developed to investigate the elasto-plastic behavior of structures. This program is outlined and the problems of non-linear response of structures are discussed. Since the mode superposition method is only valid in an elastic analysis, the direct integration method was adopted here. As the sample model, an actual reactor containment (reactor building) of PWR plant was adopted. This building consists of three components, that is, a concrete internal structure, a steel containment vessel and a concrete outer shield wall. These components are resting on a rigid foundation mat. Therefore they were modeled with a lumped mass model respectively and coupled on the foundation. The following assumptions were employed to establish the properties of dynamic model: rocking and swaying springs of soil can be obtained from an elastic half-space solution, and the hysteretic characteristic of springs is bi-linear; springs connecting each mass are dealt with shear beams so that both bending and shear deflections can be included (Hysteretic characteristics of springs are linear, bi-linear and tri-linear for the internal structure, the containment vessel and the outer shield wall, respectively); generally, each damping coefficient is given for each mode in modal superposition (However, a damping matrix must be made directly in a non-linear response). Therefore the damping matrix of the model was made by combining the damping matrices [C] of each component obtained by Caughy's method and a damping value of the rocking and swaying by the half-space solution. On the basis of above conditions, the non-linear response of the structure was obtained and the difference between elastic and elasto-plastic analysis is presented
The basic equations of the computer model CARDS (Cask-Railcar Dynamic Simulator), developed for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission to simulate the dynamic behavior of radioactive material shipping package - railcar systems, are presented. A companion model, CARRS (Casks Railcar Response Spectrum Generator), that generates system response as frequency response spectra is also presented in terms of its basic equations
The basic equations of the computer model CARDS (Cask-Railcar Dynamic Simulator), developed for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission to simulate the dynamic behavior of radioactive material shipping package - railcar systems, are presented. A companion model, CARRS (Cask Railcar Response Spectrum Generator), that generates system response as frequency response spectra is also presented in terms of its basic equations. 1 reference, 18 figures
Piazza, Giacomo; Thaler, Thomas; Fuchs, Sven
In the recent past the magnitude and frequency of natural hazard events has increased notably worldwide, along with global GDP. A higher number of elements are exposed to natural events, therefore the risk is higher. Both estimated losses and understanding about natural hazards have increased during the past decades, which is contradictory as we may logically think. Risk is increasing, due to climate change and societal change: more severe hazards are happening due to changing climatic patterns and conditions, while society is concentrating assets and people in punctual places leading to a higher exposure. Increasing surface of settled area and the concentration of highly valuable assets (e.g. technology) in exposed areas lead to higher probability of losses. Human use of land resources, namely landuse, is the product of human needs and biophysical characteristics of the land. Landuse involves arrangements, activities and inputs people undertake in a certain land cover type to produce, change or maintain it. These changes are due to many reasons, or driving factors: socio-economical, environmental, accessibility to land, land-tenure, etc. The change of those factors may cause many effects and impacts, at various levels and at different time spans. The relation between driving factors and impacts is not straight. It is although a complex interrelation that turns around two central questions: (1) what drives landuse changes and why and (2) what are the impacts on the environment and on the human society of these changes, regarding to natural hazards. The aim of this paper is to analyse the spatio-temporal environmental changes referring to exposure as well as to test the possibilities and limitations of the land use change model Dyna-CLUEs in a mountain region taking parts of the Republic of Austria as an example, and simulating the future landuse dynamics until 2030. We selected an area composed by eighteen municipalities in the Ill-Walgau in the Austrian federal
Michael Todinov; Eberechi Weli
The paper suggests for the first time the use of dynamic programming techniques for optimal risk reduction in the railway industry. It is shown that by using the concept ‘amount of removed risk by a risk reduction option’, the problem related to optimal allocation of a fixed budget to achieve a maximum risk reduction in the railway industry can be reduced to an optimisation problem from dynamic programming. For n risk reduction options and size of the available risk reduction budget B (expres...
Full Text Available Management and construction can increase resilience in the face of climate change, and benefits can be enhanced through integration of biogenic materials including shells and vegetation. Rivers and coastal landforms are dynamic systems that respond to intentional and unintended manipulation of critical factors, often with unforeseen and/or undesirable resulting effects. River management strategies have impacts that include deltas and coastal areas which are increasingly vulnerable to climate change with reference to sea level rise and storm intensity. Whereas conventional assessment and analysis of rivers and coasts has relied on modelling of hydrology, hydraulics and sediment transport, incorporating additional biological factors can offer more comprehensive, beneficial and realistic alternatives. Suitable modelling tools can provide improved decision support. The question has been whether current models can effectively address biological responses with suitable reliability and efficiency. Since morphodynamic evolution exhibits its effects on a large timescale, the choice of mathematical model is not trivial and depends upon the availability of data, as well as the spatial extent, timelines and computation effort desired. The ultimate goal of the work is to set up a conveniently simplified river morphodynamic model, coupled with a biological dynamics plant population model able to predict the long-term evolution of large alluvial river systems managed through bioengineering. This paper presents the first step of the work related to the application of the model accounting for stationary vegetation condition. Sensitivity analysis has been performed on the main hydraulic, sedimentology, and biological parameters. The model has been applied to significant river training in Europe, Asia and North America, and comparative analysis has been used to validate analytical solutions. Data gaps and further areas for investigation are identified.
Goldsmith, W.; Bernardi, D.; Schippa, L.
Management and construction can increase resilience in the face of climate change, and benefits can be enhanced through integration of biogenic materials including shells and vegetation. Rivers and coastal landforms are dynamic systems that respond to intentional and unintended manipulation of critical factors, often with unforeseen and/or undesirable resulting effects. River management strategies have impacts that include deltas and coastal areas which are increasingly vulnerable to climate change with reference to sea level rise and storm intensity. Whereas conventional assessment and analysis of rivers and coasts has relied on modelling of hydrology, hydraulics and sediment transport, incorporating additional biological factors can offer more comprehensive, beneficial and realistic alternatives. Suitable modelling tools can provide improved decision support. The question has been whether current models can effectively address biological responses with suitable reliability and efficiency. Since morphodynamic evolution exhibits its effects on a large timescale, the choice of mathematical model is not trivial and depends upon the availability of data, as well as the spatial extent, timelines and computation effort desired. The ultimate goal of the work is to set up a conveniently simplified river morphodynamic model, coupled with a biological dynamics plant population model able to predict the long-term evolution of large alluvial river systems managed through bioengineering. This paper presents the first step of the work related to the application of the model accounting for stationary vegetation condition. Sensitivity analysis has been performed on the main hydraulic, sedimentology, and biological parameters. The model has been applied to significant river training in Europe, Asia and North America, and comparative analysis has been used to validate analytical solutions. Data gaps and further areas for investigation are identified.
Hung, J.; McKillip, J.; Savin, W.; Magder, S.; Kraus, R.; Houston, N.; Goris, M.; Haskell, W.; DeBusk, R.
The cardiovascular responses to combined static-dynamic effort, postprandial dynamic effort and dynamic effort alone were evaluated by upright bicycle ergometry during equilibrium-gated blood pool scintigraphy in 24 men, mean age 59 +/- 8 years, with chronic ischemic heart disease. Combined static-dynamic effort and the postprandial state elicited a peak cardiovascular response similar to that of dynamic effort alone. Heart rate, intraarterial systolic and diastolic pressures, rate-pressure product and ejection fraction were similar for the three test conditions at the onset of ischemia and at peak effort. The prevalence and extent of exercise-induced ischemic left ventricular dysfunction, ST-segment depression, angina pectoris and ventricular ectopic activity were also similar during the three test conditions. Direct and indirect measurements of systolic and diastolic blood pressure were highly correlated. The onset of ischemic ST-segment depression and angina pectoris correlated as strongly with heart rate alone as with the rate-pressure product during all three test conditions. The cardiovascular response to combined static-dynamic effort and to postprandial dynamic effort becomes more similar to that of dynamic effort alone as dynamic effort reaches a symptom limit. If significant ischemic and arrhythmic abnormalities are absent during symptom-limited dynamic exercise testing, they are unlikely to appear during combined static-dynamic or postprandial dynamic effort
Tanguy, M.; Chokmani, K.; Bernier, M.; Poulin, J.
When a flood affects an urban area, the managers and services responsible for public safety need precise and real time information on the localization of the flooded areas, on the submersion heights in those areas, but also on the vulnerability of people exposed to this hazard. Such information is essential for an effective crisis management. Despite a growing interest in this topic over the last 15 years, the development of flood risk assessment tools mainly focused on quantitative modeling of the monetary damages caused by floods to residential buildings or to critical infrastructures. Little attention was paid to the vulnerability of people exposed to flooding but also to the effects of the failure or destruction of critical infrastructures and residential building on people health and security during the disaster. Moreover, these models do not integrate the dynamic features of the flood (extent, submersion heights) and the evolution of human vulnerability in the same mapping tool. Thus, an accurate and precise evaluation of human risk induced by urban flooding is hardly feasible using such models. This study presents CADYRI, a dynamic mapping tool of human risk associated with flooding in urban areas, which fills the actual needs in terms of flood risk evaluation and management. This innovative tool integrates a methodology of flood hazard mapping that simulates, for a given discharge, the associated water level, and subsequently determines the extent of the flooded area and the submersion heights at each point of the flooded area, using a DEM. The dynamics of human vulnerability is then mapped at the household level, according to the characteristics of the flood hazard. Three key components of human vulnerability have been identified and are integrated to CADYRI: 1, the intrinsic vulnerability of the population, estimated by specific socio-economic indicators; 2, the vulnerability of buildings, assessed by their structural features; 3, the vulnerability of
Wang, Cheng; Dong, Da; Strong, P J; Zhu, Weijing; Ma, Zhuang; Qin, Yong; Wu, Weixiang
Animal manure is a reservoir of antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) that pose a potential health risk globally, especially for resistance to the antibiotics commonly used in livestock production (such as tetracycline, sulfonamide, and fluoroquinolone). Currently, the effects of biological treatment (composting) on the transcriptional response of manure ARGs and their microbial hosts are not well characterized. Composting is a dynamic process that consists of four distinct phases that are distinguished by the temperature resulting from microbial activity, namely the mesophilic, thermophilic, cooling, and maturing phases. In this study, changes of resistome expression were determined and related to active microbiome profiles during the dynamic composting process. This was achieved by integrating metagenomic and time series metatranscriptomic data for the evolving microbial community during composting. Composting noticeably reduced the aggregated expression level of the manure resistome, which primarily consisted of genes encoding for tetracycline, vancomycin, fluoroquinolone, beta-lactam, and aminoglycoside resistance, as well as efflux pumps. Furthermore, a varied transcriptional response of resistome to composting at the ARG levels was highlighted. The expression of tetracycline resistance genes (tetM-tetW-tetO-tetS) decreased during composting, where distinctive shifts in the four phases of composting were related to variations in antibiotic concentration. Composting had no effect on the expression of sulfonamide and fluoroquinolone resistance genes, which increased slightly during the thermophilic phase and then decreased to initial levels. As indigenous populations switched greatly throughout the dynamic composting, the core resistome persisted and their reservoir hosts' composition was significantly correlated with dynamic active microbial phylogenetic structure. Hosts for sulfonamide and fuoroquinolone resistance genes changed notably in phylognetic structure
Ruessink, B. G.; Arens, S. M.; Kuipers, M.; Donker, J. J. A.
Dune management along developed coasts has traditionally focussed on the suppression of the geomorphic dynamics of the foredune to improve its role in sea defence. Because a stabilized foredune acts as an almost total barrier to aeolian transport from the beach, the habitat diversity in the more landward dunes has degraded. With the overarching objective to mitigate this undesirable loss in biodiversity, dune management projects nowadays increasingly intend to restore aeolian dynamics by reconnecting the beach-dune system with notches excavated through the foredune. Here, we use repeat topographic survey data to examine the geomorphic response of a coastal dune system in the Dutch National Park Zuid-Kennemerland to five notches excavated in 2012-2013 within an 850-m stretch of the 20-m high established foredune. The notches were dug in a V-shape (viewed onshore), with a width between approximately 50 and 100 m at the top, a (cross-dune) length between 100 and 200 m, and excavation depths between 9 and 12.5 m. The 1 × 1 m digital terrain models, acquired with airborne Lidar and UAV photogrammetry, illustrate that during the 3-year survey period the notches developed into a U-shape because of wall deflation, and that up to 8-m thick and 150-m long depositional lobes formed landward of the notches. Sand budget computations showed that the sand volume of the entire study area increased by about 22,750 m3/year, which, given the 850-m width of the study area, corresponds to an aeolian input from the beach of approximately 26.5 m3/m/year. Between 2006 and 2012 all wind-blown beach sand deposited on the seaward side of the foredune; since 2013, the notches have caused 75% of the sand to be deposited landward of the foredune. This highlights that the notches are highly effective conduits for aeolian transport into the back dunes. Future monitoring is required to determine for how long the notches will stimulate aeolian dynamics and if (and when) vegetation eventually
Gyawali, Bishal; Keeling, June; Kallestrup, Per
As Nepal mourns the 1-year commemoration of the April 2015 earthquake and its aftershocks that killed more than 8500 people and left thousands injured and displaced, other more hidden repercussions of the resultant chaotic environment need attention: the increased risk of human trafficking. Considering that natural disasters provide a milieu for this illicit trade, there is a need for a robust response from stakeholders such as donors, civil society organizations, and government organizations against human trafficking following disasters such as the Nepal earthquake. Responsibility to prevent and fight trafficking should be explicitly included in the mandate of relief and rehabilitation mechanisms set up at the national level to coordinate the disaster relief response, serving to support populations in both rural and urban areas. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2017;11:153-154).
Thorsten Lehnert; Xisong Jin
Previous research focuses on the importance of modeling the multivariate distribution for optimal portfolio allocation and active risk management. However, available dynamic models are not easily applied for high-dimensional problems due to the curse of dimensionality. In this paper, we extend the framework of the Dynamic Conditional Correlation/Equicorrelation and an extreme value approach into a series of Dynamic Conditional Elliptical Copulas. We investigate risk measures like Value at Ris...
Zhang Xiao-Dan; Zheng Yuan; Liu Xiang-Dong; Liu Cheng
According to the risk management process of financial markets, a financial risk dynamic system is constructed in this paper. Through analyzing the basic dynamic properties, we obtain the conditions for stability and bifurcation of the system based on Hopf bifurcation theory of nonlinear dynamic systems. In order to make the system's chaos disappear, we select the feedback gain matrix to design a class of chaotic controller. Numerical simulations are performed to reveal the change process of financial market risk. It is shown that, when the parameter of risk transmission rate changes, the system gradually comes into chaos from the asymptotically stable state through bifurcation. The controller can then control the chaos effectively
Borysov, Stanislav; Balatsky, Alexander
We study historical correlations and lead-lag relationships between individual stock risks (standard deviation of daily stock returns) and market risk (standard deviation of daily returns of a market-representative portfolio) in the US stock market. We consider the cross-correlation functions averaged over stocks, using historical stock prices from the Standard & Poor's 500 index for 1994-2013. The observed historical dynamics suggests that the dependence between the risks was almost linear during the US stock market downturn of 2002 and after the US housing bubble in 2007, remaining at that level until 2013. Moreover, the averaged cross-correlation function often had an asymmetric shape with respect to zero lag in the periods of high correlation. We develop the analysis by the application of the linear response formalism to study underlying causal relations. The calculated response functions suggest the presence of characteristic regimes near financial crashes, when individual stock risks affect market risk and vice versa. This work was supported by VR 621-2012-2983.
Full Text Available One third of U.S. natural gas is extracted by injecting fluid at high pressure into shale formations, a process associated with a number of possible hazards and risks that have become the subject of intense public controversy. We develop a three-part schema to make sense of risks of hydraulic fracturing and the responsibilities of engineers: the lab, the field, and the forum. In the lab, researchers seek to answer basic questions about, for example, the behavior of shale under particular conditions; there uncertainty seems to arise at every turn. In the field, engineers and others work to implement technological processes, such as hydraulic fracturing and the subsequent extraction of oil and gas; hazards may arise as natural and social systems respond in sometimes surprising ways. In the forum, the public and their representatives deliberate about risk and acceptable risk, questions that are framed in ethical as well as technical terms. The difficulty of characterizing – and in living up to – the responsibilities of engineers lie in part in the apparent distance between the lab and the forum. We examine in turn uncertainties in the lab, hazards in the field, and deliberation in the forum, leading to the conclusion that scientists and engineers can and should help to inform public deliberation but that their research cannot, on its own, resolve all controversies. Scientists and engineers who seek to inform deliberation should be mindful of the scope and limits of their authority, clear and modest in communicating research findings to the public, and careful to avoid even apparent conflicts of interest wherever possible. We close by drawing from the lab-field-forum schema to suggest a direction for pedagogical innovations aimed at the formation of responsible engineers in the context of college-level degree programs.
Ash, J. E.; Marciniak, T. J.; (Argonne National Lab., IL (United States))
To analyze the dynamic structural response of the LMFBR core subassembly hexagonal wrappers to postulated local energy releases and the sensitivity of the response to variations in both the pressure loading and the material properties of the stainless steel, a finite-element computer code STRAW has been developed. A series of experiments was performed to study the effects of variations in material properties. The amount of coldworking to which the Type 316 stainless steel is subjected has a strong influence upon the ductility and the elastic yield point. The usual fabrication process produced a nominally 20% coldworking with a yield point of about 680 MPa. By designing a special set of dies for the drawing process, a very low ductility hexcan was produced for which the yield point was raised to 820 MPa. Conversely, the yield point was lowered to 170 MPa by a solution annealing process producing a highly ductile test hexcan. A metallurgical study was conducted to find a representative brittle simulant material for the irradiated end-of-life steel properties. An aging treatment for Type 446 stainless steel was developed which reproduced the expected tensile-flow behavior of the in-pile subassembly. Further study is underway to investigate the fracture properties of the simulant material. The pressure pulses were generated by the controlled expansion of high-pressure detonation poducts from low-density explosives detonated inside a vented steel cannister. The orifice configuration of the cannister and the charge mixture ratio were designed to produce two specified pulse shapes. A charge containing 37,7 g PETN mixed with 35 wt % inert, hollow-glass microballoons developed a pressure pulse peak of 9.5 MPa at 1.0 ms. Increasing the PETN to 41 g resulted in a 14.6 MPa peak pressure, and increasing the explosive concentration to 90 wt % in the mixture increased the burning rate and the pulse risetime, so that the peak occurred at 0.6 ms.
Roos, Paulien E; Dingwell, Jonathan B
Older adults and those with increased fall risk tend to walk slower. They may do this voluntarily to reduce their fall risk. However, both slower and faster walking speeds can predict increased risk of different types of falls. The mechanisms that contribute to fall risk across speeds are not well known. Faster walking requires greater forward propulsion, generated by larger muscle forces. However, greater muscle activation induces increased signal-dependent neuromuscular noise. These speed-related increases in neuromuscular noise may contribute to the increased fall risk observed at faster walking speeds. Using a 3D dynamic walking model, we systematically varied walking speed without and with physiologically-appropriate neuromuscular noise. We quantified how actual fall risk changed with gait speed, how neuromuscular noise affected speed-related changes in fall risk, and how well orbital and local dynamic stability measures predicted changes in fall risk across speeds. When we included physiologically-appropriate noise to the 'push-off' force in our model, fall risk increased with increasing walking speed. Changes in kinematic variability, orbital, and local dynamic stability did not predict these speed-related changes in fall risk. Thus, the increased neuromuscular variability that results from increased signal-dependent noise that is necessitated by the greater muscular force requirements of faster walking may contribute to the increased fall risk observed at faster walking speeds. The lower fall risk observed at slower speeds supports experimental evidence that slowing down can be an effective strategy to reduce fall risk. This may help explain the slower walking speeds observed in older adults and others. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Lindhe, Andreas; Norberg, Tommy; Rosén, Lars
Traditional fault tree analysis is not always sufficient when analysing complex systems. To overcome the limitations dynamic fault tree (DFT) analysis is suggested in the literature as well as different approaches for how to solve DFTs. For added value in fault tree analysis, approximate DFT calculations based on a Markovian approach are presented and evaluated here. The approximate DFT calculations are performed using standard Monte Carlo simulations and do not require simulations of the full Markov models, which simplifies model building and in particular calculations. It is shown how to extend the calculations of the traditional OR- and AND-gates, so that information is available on the failure probability, the failure rate and the mean downtime at all levels in the fault tree. Two additional logic gates are presented that make it possible to model a system's ability to compensate for failures. This work was initiated to enable correct analyses of water supply risks. Drinking water systems are typically complex with an inherent ability to compensate for failures that is not easily modelled using traditional logic gates. The approximate DFT calculations are compared to results from simulations of the corresponding Markov models for three water supply examples. For the traditional OR- and AND-gates, and one gate modelling compensation, the errors in the results are small. For the other gate modelling compensation, the error increases with the number of compensating components. The errors are, however, in most cases acceptable with respect to uncertainties in input data. The approximate DFT calculations improve the capabilities of fault tree analysis of drinking water systems since they provide additional and important information and are simple and practically applicable.
Full Text Available The dynamic response of a structure can be described by both its translational and rotational receptances. The latter ones are frequently not considered because of the difficulties in applying a pure moment excitation or in measuring rotations. However, in general, this implies a reduction up to 75% of the complete model. On the other hand, if a modification includes a rotational inertia, the rotational receptances of the unmodified system are needed. In one method, more commonly found in the literature, a so called T-block is attached to the structure. Then, a force, applied to an arm of the T-block, generates a moment together with a force at the connection point. The T-block also allows for angular displacement measurements. Nevertheless, the results are often not quite satisfactory. In this work, an alternative method based upon coupling techniques is developed, in which rotational receptances are estimated without the need of applying a moment excitation. This is accomplished by introducing a rotational inertia modification when rotating the T-block. The force is then applied in its centroid. Several numerical and experimental examples are discussed so that the methodology can be clearly described. The advantages and limitations are identified within the practical application of the method.
Lawrence, Z.; Bodin, P.; Langston, C.A.; Pearce, F.; Gomberg, J.; Johnson, P.A.; Menq, F.-Y.; Brackman, T.
We present results from a prototype experiment in which we actively induce, observe, and quantify in situ nonlinear sediment response in the near surface. This experiment was part of a suite of experiments conducted during August 2004 in Garner Valley, California, using a large mobile shaker truck from the Network for Earthquake Engineering Simulation (NEES) facility. We deployed a dense accelerometer array within meters of the mobile shaker truck to replicate a controlled, laboratory-style soil dynamics experiment in order to observe wave-amplitude-dependent sediment properties. Ground motion exceeding 1g acceleration was produced near the shaker truck. The wave field was dominated by Rayleigh surface waves and ground motions were strong enough to produce observable nonlinear changes in wave velocity. We found that as the force load of the shaker increased, the Rayleigh-wave phase velocity decreased by as much as ???30% at the highest frequencies used (up to 30 Hz). Phase velocity dispersion curves were inverted for S-wave velocity as a function of depth using a simple isotropic elastic model to estimate the depth dependence of changes to the velocity structure. The greatest change in velocity occurred nearest the surface, within the upper 4 m. These estimated S-wave velocity values were used with estimates of surface strain to compare with laboratory-based shear modulus reduction measurements from the same site. Our results suggest that it may be possible to characterize nonlinear soil properties in situ using a noninvasive field technique.
Veletsos, A.S.; Younan, A.H.
The study reported herein is the third in a series of investigations motivated by need to gain improved understanding of the responses to earthquakes of deeply embedded and underground tanks storing radioactive wastes, and to develop rational but simple methods of analysis and design for such systems. Following a brief review of the errors that may result from the use of a popular model for evaluating the dynamic soil forces induced in a base-excited rigid wall retaining an elastic stratum, the sources of the errors are identified and a modification is proposed which defines correctly the action of the system. In the proposed modification, the stratum is modeled by a series of elastically supported, semi-infinite horizontal bars with distributed mass instead of massless springs. The concepts involved are introduced by reference to a system composed of a fixed-based wall and a homogeneous elastic stratum, and are then applied to the analysis of more complex soil-wall systems. Both harmonic and transient excitations are considered, and comprehensive numerical solutions are presented which elucidate the actions involved and the effects and relative importance of the relevant parameters
Vanacker, Veerle; Ortega, Raúl
Anthropogenic disturbance of natural vegetation can profoundly alter the physical, chemical and biological processes within soils. Rapid removal of topsoil during intense farming can result in an imbalance between soil production through chemical weathering and physical erosion, with direct implications on local biogeochemical cycling. However, the feedbacks between soil erosion, chemical weathering and biogeochemical cycling in response to anthropogenic forcing are not yet fully understood. Here, we study dynamic soil properties for a rapidly changing anthropogenic landscape, and focus on the coupling between physical erosion, soil production and soil chemical weathering. The archaeological site of Santa Maria de Melque (Toledo, Central Spain) was selected for its remarkably long occupation history dating back to the 7th century AD. As part of the agricultural complex, four retention reservoirs were built in the Early Middle Ages. The sedimentary archive was used to track the evolution in sedimentation rates and geochemical properties of the sediment. Catchment-wide soil erosion rates vary slightly between the various occupation phases (7th century-now), but are of the same magnitude as the cosmogenic nuclide-derived erosion rates. However, there exists large spatial variation in physical erosion rates that are coupled with chemical weathering intensities. The sedimentary records suggest that there are important changes in the spatial pattern of sediment source areas through time as a result of changing land use patterns
Patrick, W.C.; Brough, W.G.
Commercially available, hydraulically anchored, multiple-point borehole extensometers (MPBX) were evaluated with respect to response to dynamic loads produced by explosions. This study is part of the DOE-funded Spent Fuel Test-Climax (SFT-C), currently being conducted in the Climax granitic stock at the Nevada Test Site. The SFT-C is an investigation of the feasibility of short-term storage and retrieval of spent nuclear reactor fuel assemblies at a plausible repository depth in granitic rock. Eleven spent fuel assemblies are stored at a depth of 420 m for three to five years, and will then be retrieved. MPBX units are used in the SFT-C to measure both excavation-induced and thermally induced rock displacements. Long-term reliability of extensometers in this hostile environment is essential in order to obtain valid data during the course of this test. Research to date shows conclusively that extensometers of this type continue to function reliably even though subjected to accelerations of 1.8 g; research also implies that they function well though subjected to accelerations in excess of 100 g. MPBX survivability during the first four months of testing at ambient temperatures was about 90 percent
Volkova, Svitlana; Chetviorkin, Ilia; Arendt, Dustin L.; Van Durme, Ben
We propose an approach for contrasting spatiotemporal dynamics of public opinions expressed toward targeted entities, also known as stance detection task, in Russia and Ukraine during crisis. Our analysis relies on a novel corpus constructed from posts on the VKontakte social network, centered on local public opinion of the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian crisis, along with newly annotated resources for predicting expressions of fine-grained emotions including joy, sadness, disgust, anger, surprise and fear. Akin to prior work on sentiment analysis we align traditional public opinion polls with aggregated automatic predictions of sentiments for contrastive geo-locations. We report interesting observations on emotional response and stance variations across geo-locations. Some of our findings contradict stereotypical misconceptions imposed by media, for example, we found posts from Ukraine that do not support Euromaidan but support Putin, and posts from Russia that are against Putin but in favor USA. Furthermore, we are the first to demonstrate contrastive stance variations over time across geo-locations using storyline visualization technique.
Roos, Paulien E.; Dingwell, Jonathan B.
Measures that can predict risk of falling are essential for enrollment of older adults into fall prevention programs. Local and orbital stability directly quantify responses to very small perturbations and are therefore putative candidates for predicting fall risk. However, research to date is not conclusive on whether and how these measures relate to fall risk. Testing this empirically would be time consuming or may require high risk tripping experiments. Simulation studies therefore provide...
Thiago Acosta Oliveira
Full Text Available The effects of ethanol exposure on Danio rerio have been studied from the perspectives of developmental biology and behavior. However, little is known about the effects of ethanol on the prey-predator relationship and chemical communication of predation risk. Here, we showed that visual contact with a predator triggers stress axis activation in zebrafish. We also observed a typical stress response in zebrafish receiving water from these conspecifics, indicating that these fish chemically communicate predation risk. Our work is the first to demonstrate how alcohol effects this prey-predator interaction. We showed for the first time that alcohol exposure completely blocks stress axis activation in both fish seeing the predator and in fish that come in indirect contact with a predator by receiving water from these conspecifics. Together with other research results and with the translational relevance of this fish species, our data points to zebrafish as a promising animal model to study human alcoholism.
Dadson, Simon; Hall, Jim W.; Garrick, Dustin; Sadoff, Claudia; Grey, David; Whittington, Dale
Investments in the physical infrastructure, human capital, and institutions needed for water resources management have been noteworthy in the development of most civilizations. These investments affect the economy in two distinct ways: (i) by improving the factor productivity of water in multiple economic sectors, especially those that are water intensive such as agriculture and energy and (ii) by reducing acute and chronic harmful effects of water-related hazards like floods, droughts, and water-related diseases. The need for capital investment to mitigate risks and promote economic growth is widely acknowledged, but prior conceptual work on the relationship between water-related investments and economic growth has focused on the productive and harmful roles of water in the economy independently. Here the two influences are combined using a simple, dynamical systems model of water-related investment, risk, and growth. In cases where initial water security is low, initial investment in water-related assets enables growth. Without such investment, losses due to water-related hazards exert a drag on economic growth and may create a poverty trap. The presence and location of the poverty trap is context-specific and depends on the exposure of productive water-related assets to water-related risk. Exogenous changes in water-related risk can potentially push an economy away from a growth path toward a poverty trap. Our investigation shows that an inverted-U-shaped investment relation between the level of investment in water security and the current level of water security leads to faster rates of growth than the alternatives that we consider here, and that this relation is responsible for the "S"-curve that is posited in the literature. These results illustrate the importance of accounting for environmental and health risks in economic models and offer insights for the design of robust policies for investment in water-related productive assets to manage risk, in the face
Hegger, D.L.T.; Driessen, P.P.J.; Dieperink, C.; Wiering, M.A.; Raadgever, G.T.; Rijswick, H.F.M.W. van
European urban agglomerations face increasing flood risks due to urbanization and the effects of climate change. These risks are addressed at European, national and regional policy levels. A diversification and alignment of Flood Risk Management Strategies (FRMSs) can make vulnerable urban
Mantena, P. R; Al-Ostaz, Ahmed; Cheng, Alexander H
...) molecular dynamics simulations of nanoparticle-enhanced composites and fly- ash based foams that are being considered for the future generation naval structures or retrofitting of existing ones...
Jørgensen, Claus; Mark, Ole; Djordjevic, Slobodan; Hammond, Michael; Khan, David M.; Erichsen, Anders; Dorrit Enevoldsen, Ann; Heinicke, Gerald; Helwigh, Birgitte
flood water, based on either measured waste water pathogen concentrations or on assumptions regarding the prevalence of infections in the population. The exposure (dosage) to pathogens was estimated by multiplying the concentration with literature values for the ingestion of water for different exposure groups (e.g. children, adults). The probability of infection was determined by applying dose response relations and MonteCarlo simulation. The methodology is demonstrated on two cases, i.e one case from a developing country with poor sanitation and one case from a developed country, where climate adaptation is the main issue: The risk of cholera in the City of Dhaka, Bangladesh during a flood event 2004, and the risk of bacterial and viral infections of during a flood event in Copenhagen, Denmark in 2011. Results PIC The historical flood events in Dhaka (2004) and Copenhagen (2011) were successfully modelled. The urban flood model was successfully coupled to QMRA. An example of the results of the quantitative microbial risk assessment given as the average estimated risk of cholera infection for children below 5 years living in slum areas in Dhaka is shown in the figure. Similarly, the risk of infection during the flood event in Copenhagen will be presented in the article. Conclusions We have developed a methodology for the dynamic modeling of the risk of infection during waste water influenced urban flooding. The outcome of the modelling exercise indicates that direct contact with polluted flood water is a likely route of transmission of cholera in Dhaka, and bacterial and viral infectious diseases in Copenhagen. It demonstrates the applicability and the potential for linking urban flood models with QMRA in order to identify interventions to reduce the burden of disease on the population in Dhaka City and Copenhagen.
Das, S. B.; Behn, M. D.; Joughin, I. R.
We investigate modes of supraglacial lake drainage using geophysical, ground, and remote sensing observations over the western margin of the Greenland ice sheet. Lakes exhibit a characteristic life cycle defined by a pre-drainage, drainage, and post-drainage phase. In the pre-drainage phase winter snow fills pre-existing cracks and stream channels, efficiently blocking past drainage conduits. As temperatures increase in the spring, surface melting commences, initially saturating the snow pack and subsequently forming a surface network of streams that fills the lake basins. Basins continue to fill until lake drainage commences, which for individual lakes occurs at different times depending on the previous winter snow accumulation and summer temperatures. Three styles of drainage behavior have been observed: (1) no drainage, (2) slow drainage over the side into an adjacent pre-existing crack, and (3) rapid drainage through a new crack formed beneath the lake basin. Moreover, from year-to-year individual lakes exhibit different drainage behaviors. Lakes that drain slowly often utilize the same outflow channel for multiple years, creating dramatic canyons in the ice. Ultimately, these surface channels are advected out of the lake basin and a new channel forms. In the post-drainage phase, melt water continues to access the bed typically through a small conduit (e.g. moulin) formed near a local topographic minimum along the main drainage crack, draining the lake catchment throughout the remainder of the melt season. This melt water input to the bed leads to continued basal lubrication and enhanced ice flow compared to background velocities. Lakes that do not completely drain freeze over to form a surface ice layer that persists into the following year. Our results show that supraglacial lakes show a spectrum of drainage behaviors and that these styles of drainage lead to varying rates and timing of surface meltwater delivery to the bed resulting in different dynamic ice
Full Text Available Atmospheric aerosols and greenhouse gases affect cloud properties, radiative balance and, thus, the hydrological cycle. Observations show that precipitation has decreased in the Mediterranean since the beginning of the 20th century, and many studies have investigated possible mechanisms. So far, however, the effects of aerosol forcing on Mediterranean precipitation remain largely unknown. Here we compare the modeled dynamical response of Mediterranean precipitation to individual forcing agents in a set of global climate models (GCMs. Our analyses show that both greenhouse gases and aerosols can cause drying in the Mediterranean and that precipitation is more sensitive to black carbon (BC forcing than to well-mixed greenhouse gases (WMGHGs or sulfate aerosol. In addition to local heating, BC appears to reduce precipitation by causing an enhanced positive sea level pressure (SLP pattern similar to the North Atlantic Oscillation–Arctic Oscillation, characterized by higher SLP at midlatitudes and lower SLP at high latitudes. WMGHGs cause a similar SLP change, and both are associated with a northward diversion of the jet stream and storm tracks, reducing precipitation in the Mediterranean while increasing precipitation in northern Europe. Though the applied forcings were much larger, if forcings are scaled to those of the historical period of 1901–2010, roughly one-third (31±17 % of the precipitation decrease would be attributable to global BC forcing with the remainder largely attributable to WMGHGs, whereas global scattering sulfate aerosols would have negligible impacts. Aerosol–cloud interactions appear to have minimal impacts on Mediterranean precipitation in these models, at least in part because many simulations did not fully include such processes; these merit further study. The findings from this study suggest that future BC and WMGHG emissions may significantly affect regional water resources, agricultural practices, ecosystems and
Toller, Gianina; Adhimoolam, Babu; Grunwald, Thomas; Huppertz, Hans-Jürgen; Kurthen, Martin; Rankin, Katherine P; Jokeit, Hennric
Unilateral mesial temporal lobe epilepsy (MTLE) has been associated with reduced amygdala responsiveness to fearful faces. However, the effect of unilateral MTLE on empathy-related brain responses in extra-amygdalar regions has not been investigated. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging, we measured empathy-related brain responses to dynamic fearful faces in 34 patients with unilateral MTLE (18 right sided), in an epilepsy (extra-MTLE; n = 16) and in a healthy control group (n = 30). The primary finding was that right MTLE (RMTLE) was associated with decreased activity predominantly in the right amygdala and also in bilateral periaqueductal gray (PAG) but normal activity in the right anterior insula. The results of the extra-MTLE group demonstrate that these reduced amygdala and PAG responses go beyond the attenuation caused by antiepileptic and antidepressant medication. These findings clearly indicate that RMTLE affects the function of mesial temporal and midbrain structures that mediate basic interoceptive input necessary for the emotional awareness of empathic experiences of fear. Together with the decreased empathic concern found in the RMTLE group, this study provides neurobehavioral evidence that patients with RMTLE are at increased risk for reduced empathy towards others' internal states and sheds new light on the nature of social-cognitive impairments frequently accompanying MTLE.
Carbajal, Jessica M; Gamboa, Jorge L; Moore, Jordan; Smith, Favrin; Ann Eads, Lou; Clothier, Jeffrey L; Cáceda, Ricardo
Suicidal behavior is frequently triggered by social crises, such as familial, romantic, social or work-related conflict. A variety of cognitive and social functioning impairments has been associated with suicidal thoughts and acts. One of the precipitating and perpetuating factors of social conflict is the desire for retribution after a perceived offense, even at one's own detriment. We utilized the Ultimatum Game-a behavioral economic task which examines the behavioral response to perceived unfairness-in order to characterize the response to unfairness across the acute suicide risk spectrum. We examined five groups of adult individuals of both genders (n = 204): High- and Low-Lethality recent Suicide Attempters, Suicidal Ideators, Non-Suicidal Depressed Patients; and Healthy Controls. We also measured demographic and clinical variables. Even though all depressed groups showed similar rejection rates in the Ultimatum Game, there was a higher likelihood of rejecting offers in the low stakes condition in all acutely suicidal groups compared with healthy controls. Stake size, offer, education, and gender of the proposer were significantly associated with rejection rates. Acutely suicidal patients may be more vulnerable to adverse interpersonal interactions. Further characterization of social behavior may provide targets for secondary and tertiary prevention for high-risk individuals. Published by Elsevier B.V.
Full Text Available Previous research has focused on the importance of modeling the multivariate distribution for optimal portfolio allocation and active risk management. However, existing dynamic models are not easily applied to high-dimensional problems due to the curse of dimensionality. In this paper, we extend the framework of the Dynamic Conditional Correlation/Equicorrelation and an extreme value approach into a series of Dynamic Conditional Elliptical Copulas. We investigate risk measures such as Value at Risk (VaR and Expected Shortfall (ES for passive portfolios and dynamic optimal portfolios using Mean-Variance and ES criteria for a sample of US stocks over a period of 10 years. Our results suggest that (1 Modeling the marginal distribution is important for dynamic high-dimensional multivariate models. (2 Neglecting the dynamic dependence in the copula causes over-aggressive risk management. (3 The DCC/DECO Gaussian copula and t-copula work very well for both VaR and ES. (4 Grouped t-copulas and t-copulas with dynamic degrees of freedom further match the fat tail. (5 Correctly modeling the dependence structure makes an improvement in portfolio optimization with respect to tail risk. (6 Models driven by multivariate t innovations with exogenously given degrees of freedom provide a flexible and applicable alternative for optimal portfolio risk management.
Smirnova, Olga A; Cucinotta, Francis A
A recently developed biologically motivated dynamical model of the assessment of the excess relative risk (ERR) for radiogenic leukemia among acutely/continuously irradiated humans (Smirnova, 2015, 2017) is applied to estimate the ERR for radiogenic leukemia among astronauts engaged in long-term interplanetary space missions. Numerous scenarios of space radiation exposure during space missions are used in the modeling studies. The dependence of the ERR for leukemia among astronauts on several mission parameters including the dose equivalent rates of galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and large solar particle events (SPEs), the number of large SPEs, the time interval between SPEs, mission duration, the degree of astronaut's additional shielding during SPEs, the degree of their additional 12-hour's daily shielding, as well as the total mission dose equivalent, is examined. The results of the estimation of ERR for radiogenic leukemia among astronauts, which are obtained in the framework of the developed dynamical model for various scenarios of space radiation exposure, are compared with the corresponding results, computed by the commonly used linear model. It is revealed that the developed dynamical model along with the linear model can be applied to estimate ERR for radiogenic leukemia among astronauts engaged in long-term interplanetary space missions in the range of applicability of the latter. In turn, the developed dynamical model is capable of predicting the ERR for leukemia among astronauts for the irradiation regimes beyond the applicability range of the linear model in emergency cases. As a supplement to the estimations of cancer incidence and death (REIC and REID) (Cucinotta et al., 2013, 2017), the developed dynamical model for the assessment of the ERR for leukemia can be employed on the pre-mission design phase for, e.g., the optimization of the regimes of astronaut's additional shielding in the course of interplanetary space missions. The developed model can
Liu, Guo-Feng; Feng, Xia-Ting; Feng, Guang-Liang; Chen, Bing-Rui; Chen, Dong-Fang; Duan, Shu-Qian
Focusing on the problems caused by rockburst hazards in deep tunnels, such as casualties, damage to construction equipment and facilities, construction schedule delays, and project cost increase, this research attempts to present a methodology for dynamic risk assessment and management of rockbursts in D&B tunnels. The basic idea of dynamic risk assessment and management of rockbursts is determined, and methods associated with each step in the rockburst risk assessment and management process are given, respectively. Among them, the main parts include a microseismic method for early warning the occurrence probability of rockburst risk, an estimation method that aims to assess potential consequences of rockburst risk, an evaluation method that utilizes a new quantitative index considering both occurrence probability and consequences for determining the level of rockburst risk, and the dynamic updating. Specifically, this research briefly describes the referenced microseismic method of warning rockburst, but focuses on the analysis of consequences and associated risk assessment and management of rockburst. Using the proposed method of risk assessment and management of rockburst, the occurrence probability, potential consequences, and the level of rockburst risk can be obtained in real-time during tunnel excavation, which contributes to the dynamic optimisation of risk mitigation measures and their application. The applicability of the proposed method has been verified by those cases from the Jinping II deep headrace and water drainage tunnels at depths of 1900-2525 m (with a length of 11.6 km in total for D&B tunnels).
Federica La Longa
Full Text Available This study develops the critical reflections of the activities for information, training and education that have been conducted by a group of researchers of the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia in recent years. In particular, from an epistemological point of view, our analysis involves: (i science outreach, the link between science and the world; (ii science teaching and its role in the contact between science and schools; and (iii risk education, seen as a process that can develop a culture of risk in relation to the territory in which we live. These issues are critically analyzed on the basis of experience gained since 1995. The educational methodologies tested in ‘peacetime’ (in the absence of seismic events with the EDURISK Project are compared with those experienced during an emergency in Abruzzo, Italy. Today, we increasingly refer to prevention as the primary strategy of defense against risk. However, very often the responsibility of prevention falls on others, such as the government, institutions and/or local authorities. The citizens then perceive themselves as powerless against the inevitability of natural events, and they refer to these ‘rulers’ for the implementation of effective prevention policies. So, as researchers, what are the most effective actions we can take to influence risk reduction and to motivate the choices of the people? Must the effectiveness of our interventions be based on scientific information or on specific training, or must it be reached through the development of values, actions and awareness? Must our interventions be oriented and developed to inform, to train or to educate?
Full Text Available This paper discusses some issues related to dynamic effects in railway bridges focussed on the dynamic behaviour of the small and medium span simply supported railway bridges subjected to a series of moving vehicle. Presented parametric study is focused on the dynamic deflection of the simply supported railway bridge of the span Lb = 38 m, due to the series moving loads representing a conventional train with the IC-coaches, with the impact to the speed up to 160 km/h applied in Slovakia.
Rombouts, Jerome V.K.; Stentoft, Lars; Violante, Francesco
We develop a joint framework linking the physical variance and its risk neutral expectation implying variance risk premia that are persistent, appropriately reacting to changes in level and variability of the variance and naturally satisfying the sign constraint. Using option market data and real...... events and only marginally by the premium associated with normal price fluctuations....
Xiao, Feng; Chen, Gang S; Hulsey, J Leroy
In bridge health monitoring, tiltmeters have been used for measuring rotation and curvature; however, their application in dynamic parameter identification has been lacking. This study installed fiber Bragg grating (FBG) tiltmeters on the bearings of a bridge and monitored the dynamic rotational angle. The dynamic features, including natural frequencies and mode shapes, have been identified successfully. The innovation presented in this paper is the first-time use of FBG tiltmeter readings to identify the natural frequencies of a long-span steel girder bridge. The identified results have been verified using a bridge finite element model. This paper introduces a new method for the dynamic monitoring of a bridge using FBG tiltmeters. Limitations and future research directions are also discussed in the conclusion.
Full Text Available Emotional processing without conscious awareness plays an important role in human social interaction. Several behavioral studies reported that subliminal presentation of photographs of emotional facial expressions induces unconscious emotional processing. However, it was difficult to elicit strong and robust effects using this method. We hypothesized that dynamic presentations of facial expressions would enhance subliminal emotional effects and tested this hypothesis with two experiments. Fearful or happy facial expressions were presented dynamically or statically in either the left or the right visual field for 20 (Experiment 1 and 30 (Experiment 2 ms. Nonsense target ideographs were then presented, and participants reported their preference for them. The results consistently showed that dynamic presentations of emotional facial expressions induced more evident emotional biases toward subsequent targets than did static ones. These results indicate that dynamic presentations of emotional facial expressions induce more evident unconscious emotional processing.
Full Text Available In bridge health monitoring, tiltmeters have been used for measuring rotation and curvature; however, their application in dynamic parameter identification has been lacking. This study installed fiber Bragg grating (FBG tiltmeters on the bearings of a bridge and monitored the dynamic rotational angle. The dynamic features, including natural frequencies and mode shapes, have been identified successfully. The innovation presented in this paper is the first-time use of FBG tiltmeter readings to identify the natural frequencies of a long-span steel girder bridge. The identified results have been verified using a bridge finite element model. This paper introduces a new method for the dynamic monitoring of a bridge using FBG tiltmeters. Limitations and future research directions are also discussed in the conclusion.
parameter models of the thermometric system were constructed and gave acceptable agreement with the experimental results. These models can be used to predict the dynamic behavior of any similar thermometer system. (Author)
Jia, Liyan; Tong, Lang; Zhao, Qing
In this paper, the problem of optimal dynamic pricing for retail electricity with an unknown demand model is considered. Under the day-ahead dynamic pricing (a.k.a. real time pricing) mechanism, a retailer obtains electricity in a twosettlement wholesale market and serves its customers in real time. Without knowledge on the aggregated demand function of its customers, the retailer aims to maximize its retail surplus by sequentially adjusting its price based on the behavior of its customers in...
Christoffersen, P.; Jacobs, K.; Ornthanalai, C.
We build a new class of discrete-time models that are relatively easy to estimate using returns and/or options. The distribution of returns is driven by two factors: dynamic volatility and dynamic jump intensity. Each factor has its own risk premium. The models significantly outperform standard
Hong S. He; Bo Z. Shang; Thomas R. Crow; Eric J. Gustafson; Stephen R. Shifley
Understanding fuel dynamics over large spatial (103-106 ha) and temporal scales (101-103 years) is important in comprehensive wildfire management. We present a modeling approach to simulate fuel and fire risk dynamics as well as impacts of alternative fuel treatments. The...
Nguyen, T. P.; Pham, D. T.; Ngo, K. T.
Reducing vibration in structures under lateral load always attracts many researchers in during pastime, hence the mainly purpose of paper analyzes effectiveness of multiple-tuned liquid dampers for reducing dynamic responses of structures under ground acceleration of earthquakes. In this study, the multi-tuned liquid damper with slat screens (M-TLDWSS) is considered in detail for analyzing dynamic response of multi-degrees of freedom structure due to earthquake, which is more different previous studies. Then, the general equation of motion of the structure and M-TLDWSS under ground acceleration of earthquake is established based on dynamic balance of principle and solved by numerical method in the time domain. The effects of characteristic parameters of M-TLDWSS on dynamic response of the structure are investigated. The results obtained in this study demonstrate that the M-TLDWSS has significantly effectiveness for reducing dynamic response of the structure.
Fernandes, K.; Baethgen, W.; Verchot, L. V.; Gutierrez-Velez, V.; Pinedo-Vasquez, M.
In Indonesia, drought driven fires occur typically during the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), such as those of 1997 and 2015 that resulted in months-long hazardous atmospheric pollution levels in Equatorial Asia and record greenhouse gas emissions. Nonetheless, anomalously active fire seasons have also been observed in non-drought years. In this work, we investigated whether fires are impacted by temperature anomalies and if so, if the responses differ under contrasting precipitation regimes. Our findings show that when the July-October dry-season is anomalously dry, the sensitivity of fires to temperature anomalies is similar regardless of the sign of the anomalies. In contrast, in wet condition, fire risk increases sharply when the dry season is anomalously warm. We also present a characterization of near-term regional climate projections over the next few decades and the implications of continuing global temperature increase in future fire probability in Indonesia.
Ekaterina V. Tulupova
Full Text Available The article focuses on effectiveness evaluation combined measures of financial risks, which are convex combinations of measures VaR, CVaR and their analogues for the right distribution tail functions of a portfolio returns.
This paper presents and discusses guidelines for communicating information about the risks of nuclear energy effectively, responsibility, and ethically. It consists of four parts: guidelines for communicating risk information; guidelines for presenting and explaining risk-related numbers and statistics; guidelines for presenting and explaining risk comparisons; and problems frequently encountered in communicating risk information
This thesis is concerned with probabilistic numerical problems about modeling, risk control and risk hedging motivated by applications to energy markets. The main tool is based on stochastic approximation and simulation methods. This thesis consists of three parts. The first one is devoted to the computation of two risk measures of the portfolio loss distribution L: the Value-at-Risk (VaR) and the Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR). This computation uses a stochastic algorithm combined with an adaptive variance reduction technique. The first part of this chapter deals with the finite dimensional case, the second part extends the results of the first part to the case of a path-dependency process and the last one deals low discrepancy sequences. The second chapter is devoted with risk minimizing hedging strategies in an incomplete market operating in discrete time using quantization based stochastic approximation. Theoretical results on CVaR hedging are presented then numerical aspects are addressed in a Markovian framework. The last part deals with joint modeling of Gas and Electricity spot prices. The multi-factor model presented is based on stationary Ornstein process with parameterized diffusion coefficient. (author)
Jurák, Pavel; Halámek, Josef; Vondra, Vlastimil; Leinveber, P.; Fráňa, P.; Plachý, M.; Souček, M.; Kára, T.
Roč. 6, č. 1 (2008), s. 103 ISSN 1556-7451. [World Congress on Heart Disease /14./. 26.07.2008-29.07.2008, Toronto] Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z20650511 Keywords : hypertension * vessel compliance * blood pressure * dynamic parameters Subject RIV: FA - Cardiovascular Disease s incl. Cardiotharic Surgery
Parker, Robert G.; Agashe, Vinayak; Vijayakar, Sandeep M.
The dynamic response of a helicopter planetary gear system is examined over a wide range of operating speeds and torques. The analysis tool is a unique, semianalytical finite element formulation that admits precise representation of the tooth geometry and contact forces that are crucial in gear dynamics. Importantly, no a priori specification of static transmission error excitation or mesh frequency variation is required; the dynamic contact forces are evaluated internally at each time step. The calculated response shows classical resonances when a harmonic of mesh frequency coincides with a natural frequency. However, peculiar behavior occurs where resonances expected to be excited at a given speed are absent. This absence of particular modes is explained by analytical relationships that depend on the planetary configuration and mesh frequency harmonic. The torque sensitivity of the dynamic response is examined and compared to static analyses. Rotation mode response is shown to be more sensitive to input torque than translational mode response.
J.J.A.G. Driessen (Joost); R. Xing (Rang)
textabstractRecent empirical work documents large liquidity risk premiums in stock markets. We calculate the liquidity risk premiums demanded by large investors by solving a dynamic portfolio choice problem with stochastic price impact of trading, CRRA utility and a time-varying investment
Driessen, Joost; Xing, R.
Recent empirical work documents large liquidity risk premiums in stock markets. We calculate the liquidity risk premiums demanded by large investors by solving a dynamic portfolio choice problem with stochastic price impact of trading, CRRA utility and a time-varying investment opportunity set. We
Full text: The UK has been using and regulating radioactive materials for many years. The law, and the regulatory systems to implement it have developed over time, to meet the perceived need. More recently, the threat of inadvertent movements of, and illicit trafficking in radioactive materials has become apparent. This relatively new challenge cannot be met by a single U.K. law enforcement body. There will be Police and security services interest in any cases that arise of deliberate trafficking in fissile materials, and there will be statutory concerns for Customs and Excise. At the operational level, they do not have radioanalytical services and radiation protection support immediately available, as the frequency of occurrence of such incidents is extremely low. However, the typical case is an inadvertent movement. These usually involve orphaned sources, where none of the above law enforcement bodies have a statutory locus. In such cases, it is the UK environment agencies that take the lead (as regulators of radioactive substances), together with Health and Safety Executive as regulators of radiation safety. However they do not have all the statutory powers needed to intervene. This is in contrast to the position in some other countries. The UK paper at the International Conference of Regulators in Buenos Aires in December 2000 described the UK's co-ordination work to create synergies between law enforcement bodies and potentially affected industry groups. This was described as an 'All Risk Approach'. This is seen as the best way to manage an effective response to the challenge, given that the legislation cannot at present provide all the necessary powers. This new paper will describe the UK Response Plan and how it is designed to cover all risk: radiological and socio-economic. It will also describe how the Plan is being tested and validated as a project. The plan draws on UK Emergency Planning policy, as well as IAEA guidance on the Prevention, Detection and
Fan, J.T.; Weerheijm, J.; Sluys, L.J.
The dynamic mechanical behaviour of a soft polymer material (Clear Flex 75) was studied using a split Hopkinson pressure bar (SHPB) apparatus. Mechanical properties have been determined at moderate to high strain rates. Real time deformation and fracture were recorded using a high-speed camera.
Marcella Q Salomão
Full Text Available Measuring corneal biomechanical properties is still challenging. There are several clinical applications for biomechanical measurements, including the detection of mild or early forms of ectatic corneal diseases. This article reviews clinical applications for biomechanical measurements provided by the Corvis ST dynamic non contact tonometer
Han, Q.; Arentze, T.A.; Timmermans, H.J.P.
In this paper we discuss the development of a dynamic agent-based model which simulates how agents search and explore in nonstationary environments and ultimately develop habitual, context-dependent, activity travel patterns. Conceptually, the creation of a choice set is context dependent.
Han, Q.; Arentze, T.A.; Timmermans, H.J.P.
This paper discusses the development of a dynamic agent-based model which simulates how agents search and explore in non-stationary environments and ultimately develop habitual, context-dependent, activity-travel patterns. In this paper, we specifically focus on how emotional values, beliefs and
Urban settlements account for only two percent of the Earth's land surface. However, over half of the world's population resides in cities (United Nations, 2001). The quantitative evidences presented here showed that there were drastic changes in the temporal and spatial dynamics of land use/land cover. As an overall ...
Meerovich, V; Sokolovsky, V; Prigozhin, L; Rozman, D
Dynamic voltage-current characteristics of an HTS Ag/BiSCCO composite tape are studied both experimentally and theoretically. The tape is subjected to pulsed currents with different shapes and magnitudes and voltage traces are measured using the four-point method with different locations of potential taps on the sample surface. Clockwise and anticlockwise hysteresis loops are obtained for the same sample depending on the location of the potential taps. The dynamic characteristics deviate substantially from the DC characteristic, especially in the range of low voltages where a criterion for the critical current value is usually chosen (1-10 μV cm -1 ). The critical current determined from dynamic characteristics and its change with the pulse magnitude depend on the location of the potential taps and on the curve branch chosen for the critical current determination (ascending or descending). The theoretical analysis is based on a model of the magnetic flux diffusion into a composite tape for a superconductor described by the flux creep characteristic. Numerical simulation based on this model gives results in good agreement with the experimental ones and explains the observed peculiarities of the dynamic characteristics of HTS composite tapes. The difference between the magnetic diffusion into a tape and a slab is discussed
Van Dievel, Marie; Janssens, Lizanne; Stoks, Robby
Prey organisms are expected to use different short- and long-term responses to predation risk to avoid excessive costs. Contrasting both types of responses is important to identify chronic stress responses and possible compensatory mechanisms in order to better understand the full impact of predators on prey life history and population dynamics. Using larvae of the damselfly Enallagma cyathigerum, we contrasted the effects of short- and long-term predation risk, with special focus on consequences for body stoichiometry. Under short-term predation risk, larvae reduced growth rate, which was associated with a reduced food intake, increased metabolic rate and reduced glucose content. Under long-term predation risk, larvae showed chronic predator stress as indicated by persistent increases in metabolic rate and reduced food intake. Despite this, larvae were able to compensate for the short-term growth reduction under long-term predation risk by relying on physiological compensatory mechanisms, including reduced energy storage. Only under long-term predation risk did we observe an increase in body C:N ratio, as predicted under the general stress paradigm (GSP). Although this was caused by a predator-induced decrease in N content, there was no associated increase in C content. These stoichiometric changes could not be explained by GSP responses because, under chronic predation risk, there was no decrease in N-rich proteins or increase in C-rich fat and sugars; instead glycogen decreased. Our results highlight the importance of compensatory mechanisms and the value of explicitly integrating physiological mechanisms to obtain insights into the temporal dynamics of non-consumptive effects, including effects on body stoichiometry.
Juan Pablo Zamora Aguas
Full Text Available This paper addresses supply risk in the oncological medicine supply chain (SC in Colombia. A system dynamics model was developed for assessing supply risk impact on SC operation and performance. The costs of risk and logis-tics operation were evaluated in current conditions and in a risk mitigation scenario. The model was based on a systematic analysis of supply networks, mainly concerning the reduction of overall SC costs and improving service, quality and opportunity performance index. This article has resulted from research into SC risk management (SCRM carried out by the Universidad Nacional de Colombia’s SEPRO research group.
Full Text Available Global economic, social and environmental changes are inspiring companies to behave responsibly towards the environment, not only in the interest of others, but also in that of the future of their companies. It is crucial that companies are able to recognize any lack in their ability to grow values in a timely manner, because issues at companies require immediate intervention. A key factor in maintaining operations is the time interval required for companies to adjust to challenges. Are Annual Reports capable of indicating problems or possibly to inform decision-makers that a company is entering a period of decline? Such information can be gathered from the notes to the financial statement. Are annually prepared statements capable of indicating problems? Definitely, yes. Do yearly once due statements provide enough information? The answer must be no, as we are not living in a static economic environment. The more dynamic our economic environment is, the greater the role played by the question of time. Thanks to improvements in accounting and technology, we are able to create up-to-date analyses, based on accounting statements. However, in order to be effective, teamwork inside the company is essential and controllers should play a key role.
Fock, Jeppe; Balceris, Christoph; Costo, Rocio
The response of magnetic nanoparticles (MNPs) to an oscillating magnetic field outside the linear response region is important for several applications including magnetic hyperthermia, magnetic resonance imaging and biodetection. The size and magnetic moment are two critical parameters for the pe...
Premiums in futures prices are usually considered through the use of 2 models: a no-arbitrage model; and the equilibrium approach or theory of normal backwardation. The no-arbitrage approach equates futures prices with spot prices, storage costs and convenience yields, and is difficult to apply to electricity markets. This paper investigated future electricity prices in Nord Pool's futures market using an equilibrium approach, which split futures prices into an expected spot price component and a risk premium component. Three main hypotheses were used: (1) that risk premiums were present in the Nord Pool futures market during the period 1997-2004; that risk premiums in the Nord Pool futures market were smaller or absent during the period of 2000 to 2002; and, that there was a significant change in risk premiums in Nord Pool's futures market after the winter of 2002-2003 due to a change in consumer hedging behaviour. Futures prices were compared to realized spot prices in their delivery periods in order to test the hypotheses. In order to estimate the futures premiums, a 1-sample test was performed on the entire period for 1, 30, 60, and 90 days before delivery of the block or month contract. The test employed the null hypothesis that the futures premiums were 0. Premiums were positive and varied between 3.7 per cent and 9.3 per cent. The purpose of the study was to determine whether risk premiums were present. Results showed that risk premiums varied over time. Two additional hypotheses were then investigated to examine whether the presence of outside speculators reduced risk premiums, and to see if a period of high prices and volatility caused more buyers to hedge in the futures market. Results showed that in the face of volatility and higher prices, consumers do not purchase fixed-price contracts which would ultimately increase futures premiums in the market. It was concluded that premiums are an important element in the pricing of Nord Pool futures and forwards
Full Text Available Intangible assets, such as reputation, brand value, strategic position, alliances, knowledge, human capital, play an increasingly important role in shaping the market value of an organization. At the same time, in the literature it is emphasized that the attribute of intangibility translates into an increased risk of destruction or impairment of assets. Thus, the research problem associated with the analysis of organizational reputation risk management as a component of the dynamic capabilities management process should be considered important from the point of view of management science. The study attempts to outline the concept of dynamic capabilities, define the concept of risk and subsequently discuss the relationship between dynamic capabilities and organizational reputation risk management.
Borchani, Hanen; Martinez, Ana Maria; Masegosa, Andres
Our goal is to do risk prediction in credit operations, and as data is collected continuously and reported on a monthly basis, this gives rise to a streaming data classification problem. Our analysis reveals some practical problems that have not previously been thoroughly analyzed in the context...
Grotan, T.O.; Storseth, F.; Albrechtsen, E.
Development, deployment and application of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) and digital infrastructure continue with unabated intensity in the petroleum-related activity on the Norwegian shelf. This development towards what is denoted Integrated Operations (IO) creates new ways of organizing work, new work processes and increased automation, e.g. closer collaboration offshore-onshore, cooperation across organizational and geographical borders. This creates new challenges for managing risk. Although there are different versions of IO today, we argue that it is possible to identify and study generic properties within such IO manifestations. The current paper focus on the potential complexity of IO in the generic sense, and some scientific implications in terms of addressing risk. The paper uses the century-old metaphor of 'wildness in wait' to engage the wide field of complexity theory in a productive way to address systemic properties of risk. The paper further uses the Cynefin sensemaking framework in order to identify and address the crucial distinction between directed (resultant) and un-directed (emergent) order. The paper finally discusses the importance of seeing risk assessment as a social knowledge practice.
Climate changes may allow for vector-transmitted tropical diseases to spread into temperate areas. Areas of low ecological diversity are at higher risk of infectious disease transmission due to decreased zooprophylaxis, the diversion of disease carrying insects from humans to...
Tran Quoc, Tinh; Khong Trong, Toan; Luong Van, Hai
In this paper, Improved Moving Element Method (IMEM) is used to analyze the dynamic response of Euler-Bernoulli beam structures on the dynamic foundation model subjected to the moving load. The effects of characteristic foundation model parameters such as Winkler stiffness, shear layer based on the Pasternak model, viscoelastic dashpot and characteristic parameter of mass on foundation. Beams are modeled by moving elements while the load is fixed. Based on the principle of the publicly virtual balancing and the theory of moving element method, the motion differential equation of the system is established and solved by means of the numerical integration based on the Newmark algorithm. The influence of mass on foundation and the roughness of the beam surface on the dynamic response of beam are examined in details.
Lai, Wenze; Li, Wenbo; Wang, Hailei; Huang, Yingliang; Wu, Xuelian; Sun, Bingyun
Flood is one of natural disasters with the worst loss in the world. It needs to assess flood disaster risk so that we can reduce the loss of flood disaster. Disaster management practical work needs the dynamic risk results of building. Rainstorm flood disaster system is a typical complex system. From the view of complex system theory, flood disaster risk is the interaction result of hazard effect objects, rainstorm flood hazard factors, and hazard environments. Agent-based modeling (ABM) is an important tool for complex system modeling. Rainstorm-flood building risk dynamic assessment method (RFBRDAM) was proposed using ABM in this paper. The interior structures and procedures of different agents in proposed meth had been designed. On the Netlogo platform, the proposed method was implemented to assess the building risk changes of the rainstorm flood disaster in the Huaihe River Basin using Agent-based simulation (ABS). The results indicated that the proposed method can dynamically assess building risk of the whole process for the rainstorm flood disaster. The results of this paper can provide one new approach for flood disaster building risk dynamic assessment and flood disaster management.
LECLERCQ, Maxime; MALBURET, François; VERON, Philippe
This paper focuses specifically on the control of the propeller pitch change mechanisms and their associated dynamics. The subject of this article is restricted to the mechanisms using a hydraulic single acting actuator. They function asymmetrically and are subject to important varying external loads under the full flight envelope. This phenomenon has an impact on their dynamic response.The question of the dynamics of these systems is rarely dealt with because, usually for aircraft applicatio...
Liping Ni [Paul Scherrer Inst. (PSI), Villigen (Switzerland)
The structural mechanics of a liquid target container for pulsed spallation sources have been simulated using both a commercial code and a PSI-developed program. Results from the transient thermal-structural analysis showed that, due to inertia effects, the dynamic stress in the target container is contributed mainly from direct heating in the initial time stage, and later from the pressure wave in the target liquid once it reaches the wall. (author) figs., tab., refs.
Qi Han; Theo Arentze; Harry J P Timmermans
In this paper we discuss the development of a dynamic agent-based model which simulates how agents search and explore in nonstationary environments and ultimately develop habitual, context-dependent, activity–travel patterns. Conceptually, the creation of a choice set is context dependent. Individuals are assumed to have aspiration levels associated with location attributes that, in combination with evaluation results, determine whether the agent will start exploring or persist in habitual be...
Amato, G; Romano, G; Agrusa, A; Gordini, L; Gulotta, E; Erdas, E; Calò, P G
To date, no gold standard for the surgical treatment of femoral hernia exists. Pure tissue repair as well as mesh/plug implantation, open or laparoscopic, are the most performed methods. Nevertheless, all these techniques need sutures or mesh fixation. This implies the risk of damaging sensitive structures of the femoral area, along with complications related to tissue tear and postoperative discomfort consequent to poor quality mesh incorporation. The present retrospective multicenter case series highlights the results of femoral hernia repair procedures performed with a 3D dynamic responsive implant in a cohort of 32 patients during a mean follow up of 27 months. Aiming to simplify the surgical procedure and reduce complications, a 3D dynamic responsive implant was delivered for femoral hernia repair, in a patient cohort. After returning the hernia sack to the abdominal cavity, the implant was simply delivered into the hernia defect where it remained, thanks to its inherent centrifugal expansion, obliterating the hernia opening without need of fixation. Postoperative pain assessment was determined using the VAS score system. The use of the 3D prosthetic device allowed for easier and faster surgical repair in a fixation free fashion. None of the typical fixation related complications occurred in the examined patients. Postoperative pain assessment with VAS score showed a very low level of pain, allowing the return of patients to normal activities in extremely reduced times. In the late postoperative period, no discomfort or chronic pain was reported. Femoral hernia repair with the 3D dynamic revealed a quick and safe placement procedure. The reduced pain intensity, as well as the absence of adverse events consequent to sutures or mesh fixation, seems to be a significant benefit of the motile compliance of the device. Furthermore, this 3D prosthesis has already proven to induce an enhanced probiotic response showing ingrowth in the implant of the typical tissue
Horlick-Jones, T.; Marchi, B. de; Del Zotto, M.; Pellizzoni, L.; Ungaro, D.; Prades Lopez, A.; Diaz Hidalgo, M.; Pidgeon, N.; Sime, J.
Full text of publication follows: key themes: social dynamics of public risk perception; trust, tolerability, and risk management; discourses of environmental risk; implications for risk communication and environmental valuation; application of mixed qualitative/quantitative methods in risk perception research. This paper presents some of the key findings of a two-year comparative European study (the PRISP Project) on public perception of risks associated with industrial sites in the UK, Italy and Spain. The project utilised a mixed-method approach (comprising community ethnography, semi-structured interviews, questionnaire survey and focus groups), within a Grounded Theory framework, to examine the social dynamics of risk comprehension, tolerability and politics in settings adjacent to a range of industrial facilities. These often complex industrial zones present a portfolio of 'acute' and 'chronic' risks including hazards associated with sites regulated by the European Union COMAH Directive. Our findings have important implications for the regulation of both major accident hazard and pollution risks, risk communication programmes, industrial risk management practices and for the methodological basis of health and safety and environmental valuation techniques. (authors)
Wismans, Luc Johannes Josephus; van Berkum, Eric C.; Bliemer, Michiel C.J.; Viti, F.; Immers, B.; Tampere, C.
Multi objective optimization of externalities of traffic solving a network design problem in which Dynamic Traffic Management measures are used, is time consuming while heuristics are needed and solving the lower level requires solving the dynamic user equilibrium problem. Use of response surface
Ikari, Keita; Sakuma, Yuka; Jimbo, Takehiro
We investigate the dynamics of decanoic acid/decanoate (DA) vesicles in response to pH stimuli. Two types of dynamic processes induced by the micro injection of NaOH solutions are sequentially observed: deformations and topological transitions. In the deformation stage, DA vesicles show a series...
Kærn, Martin Ryhl; Elmegaard, Brian; Larsen, Lars Finn Sloth
The dynamic response from an evaporator is important for control of refrigeration and air-conditioning systems. Essentially, the prediction of refrigerant charge inside the evaporator is crucial for the dynamic behavior. The prediction of refrigerant charge follows from suitable void fraction...
Yvonne J. Rozendaal
Full Text Available Summary: Background & aims: Knowledge of postprandial glycemic response (PPGR dynamics is important in nutrition management and diabetes research, care and (selfmanagement. In daily life, food intake is the most important factor influencing the occurrence of hyperglycemia. However, the large variability in PPGR dynamics to different types of food is inadequately predicted by existing glycemic measures. The objective of this study was therefore to quantitatively describe PPGR dynamics using a systems approach. Methods: Postprandial glucose and insulin data were collected from literature for many different food products and mixed meals. The predictive value of existing measures, such as the Glycemic Index, was evaluated. A physiology-based dynamic model was used to reconstruct the full postprandial response profiles of both glucose and insulin simultaneously. Results: We collected a large range of postprandial glucose and insulin dynamics for 53 common food products and mixed meals. Currently available glycemic measures were found to be inadequate to describe the heterogeneity in postprandial dynamics. By estimating model parameters from glucose and insulin data, the physiology-based dynamic model accurately describes the measured data whilst adhering to physiological constraints. Conclusions: The physiology-based dynamic model provides a systematic framework to analyze postprandial glucose and insulin profiles. By changing parameter values the model can be adjusted to simulate impaired glucose tolerance and insulin resistance. Keywords: Postprandial glycemic response, Physiology-based dynamic model, Food intake, Computational modeling, Glucose, Insulin
Analysts. Cognitive prompts can reduce overconfidence and information bias. One such strategy is the “Five-Why Analysis,” developed by Toyota and used...building trust among CSIRTs and MTS members (including those from other CSIRTs and agencies), as well as developing an environment of psychological safety...recommendations for optimal CSIRT performance. 15. SUBJECT TERMS Cyber Incident Response, Response Teams, Cognitive Task Analysis 16. SECURITY
on the magnitude of the resulting response. A frequency representation of vertical pedestrian load is developed, and a compact explicit formula is developed for the magnitude of the resulting response, in terms of the damping ratio of the structure, the bandwidth of the pedestrian load, and the mean footfall...... frequency. The accuracy of the formula is verified by a statistical moment analysis using the Lyapunov equations....
Kukita, Yutaka; Namatame, Ken; Takeshita, Isao; Shiba, Masayoshi
A dynamic response evaluation test of pressure transducers was conducted in support of the JAERI Full-Scale Mark II CRT (Containment Response Test) Program. The test results indicated that certain of the cavity-type transducers used in the early blowdown test had undesirable response characteristics. The transducer mounting scheme was modified to avoid trapping of air bubbles in the pressure transmission tubing attached to the transducers. The dynamic response of the modified transducers was acceptable within the frequency range of 200 Hz. (author)
Olivares, Erick; Salgado, Simón; Maidana, Jean Paul; Herrera, Gaspar; Campos, Matías; Madrid, Rodolfo; Orio, Patricio
Cold-sensitive nerve terminals (CSNTs) encode steady temperatures with regular, rhythmic temperature-dependent firing patterns that range from irregular tonic firing to regular bursting (static response). During abrupt temperature changes, CSNTs show a dynamic response, transiently increasing their firing frequency as temperature decreases and silencing when the temperature increases (dynamic response). To date, mathematical models that simulate the static response are based on two depolarizing/repolarizing pairs of membrane ionic conductance (slow and fast kinetics). However, these models fail to reproduce the dynamic response of CSNTs to rapid changes in temperature and notoriously they lack a specific cold-activated conductance such as the TRPM8 channel. We developed a model that includes TRPM8 as a temperature-dependent conductance with a calcium-dependent desensitization. We show by computer simulations that it appropriately reproduces the dynamic response of CSNTs from mouse cornea, while preserving their static response behavior. In this model, the TRPM8 conductance is essential to display a dynamic response. In agreement with experimental results, TRPM8 is also needed for the ongoing activity in the absence of stimulus (i.e. neutral skin temperature). Free parameters of the model were adjusted by an evolutionary optimization algorithm, allowing us to find different solutions. We present a family of possible parameters that reproduce the behavior of CSNTs under different temperature protocols. The detection of temperature gradients is associated to a homeostatic mechanism supported by the calcium-dependent desensitization. PMID:26426259
Full Text Available Cold-sensitive nerve terminals (CSNTs encode steady temperatures with regular, rhythmic temperature-dependent firing patterns that range from irregular tonic firing to regular bursting (static response. During abrupt temperature changes, CSNTs show a dynamic response, transiently increasing their firing frequency as temperature decreases and silencing when the temperature increases (dynamic response. To date, mathematical models that simulate the static response are based on two depolarizing/repolarizing pairs of membrane ionic conductance (slow and fast kinetics. However, these models fail to reproduce the dynamic response of CSNTs to rapid changes in temperature and notoriously they lack a specific cold-activated conductance such as the TRPM8 channel. We developed a model that includes TRPM8 as a temperature-dependent conductance with a calcium-dependent desensitization. We show by computer simulations that it appropriately reproduces the dynamic response of CSNTs from mouse cornea, while preserving their static response behavior. In this model, the TRPM8 conductance is essential to display a dynamic response. In agreement with experimental results, TRPM8 is also needed for the ongoing activity in the absence of stimulus (i.e. neutral skin temperature. Free parameters of the model were adjusted by an evolutionary optimization algorithm, allowing us to find different solutions. We present a family of possible parameters that reproduce the behavior of CSNTs under different temperature protocols. The detection of temperature gradients is associated to a homeostatic mechanism supported by the calcium-dependent desensitization.
Full Text Available Immune response plays a fundamental role in protecting the organism from infections; however, dysregulation often occurs and can be detrimental for the organism, leading to a variety of immune-mediated diseases. Recently our understanding of the molecular and cellular networks regulating the immune response, and, in particular, adaptive immunity, has improved dramatically. For many years, much of the focus has been on the study of protein regulators; nevertheless, recent evidence points to a fundamental role for specific classes of noncoding RNAs (ncRNAs in regulating development, activation and homeostasis of the immune system. Although microRNAs (miRNAs are the most comprehensive and well-studied, a number of reports suggest the exciting possibility that long ncRNAs (lncRNAs could mediate host response and immune function. Finally, evidence is also accumulating that suggests a role for miRNAs and other small ncRNAs in autocrine, paracrine and exocrine signaling events, thus highlighting an elaborate network of regulatory interactions mediated by different classes of ncRNAs during immune response. This review will explore the multifaceted roles of ncRNAs in the adaptive immune response. In particular, we will focus on the well-established role of miRNAs and on the emerging role of lncRNAs and circulating ncRNAs, which all make indispensable contributions to the understanding of the multilayered modulation of the adaptive immune response.
Gao, Qingfei; Wang, Zonglin; Jia, Hongyu; Liu, Chenguang; Li, Jun; Guo, Binqiang; Zhong, Junfei
To address the drawback of traditional method of investigating dynamic responses of the continuous girder bridge with uniform cross-section under moving vehicular loads, the orthogonal experimental design method is proposed in this paper. Firstly, some empirical formulas of natural frequencies are obtained by theoretical derivation and numerical simulation. The effects of different parameters on dynamic responses of the vehicle-bridge coupled vibration system are discussed using our own progr...
Habib, Komal; Hamelin, Lorie; Wenzel, Henrik
. In the context of strategic planning and innovation, and in scientific literature, this aspect is often referred to as geopolitical supply risk. In the past few decades, cobalt crisis, the oil embargo, and the more recent Rare Earth Elements (REEs) issue are the best examples regarding the geopolitical supply...... production distribution and more dependent on the location of current geological resources and the future discoveries, as well as on the technological development to improve profitability of mining the currently sub-economical resources....
The aim of this study was to analyze ten (10) years of epidemiological surveillance data of meningitis in Burkina Faso for high risk germs patterns identification in order to contribute to the strengthening of prevention strategies. A retrospective study of the past decade (2005- 2014) of cases of acute bacterial meningitis ...
The aim of this study was to analyze ten (10) years of epidemiological surveillance data of meningitis in Burkina Faso for high risk germs patterns identification in order to contribute to the strengthening of prevention strategies. A retrospective study of the past decade (2005- 2014) of cases of acute bacterial meningitis ...
Takatsu, H.; Shimizu, M.; Ohta, M.
Dynamic response analyses of the JAERI Tokamak 60 (JT-60) vacuum vessel were carried out under three kinds of saddle-like electromagnetic forces. In the analysis, the dynamic response of the bellows was obtained by dividing it into three components; the first, caused by the forced deflection due to the displacement of an adjacent rigid ring; the second, caused by inertia force; and the third, caused by a saddle-like electromagnetic force. Eigenvalue analyses showed that the 20th mode is a typical rotation mode of the rigid ring around the major radius with a natural frequency of 46.3 Hz. From the results of the dynamic response analyses, the maximum displacement response of the rigid ring was 3.1 mm and remarkable dynamic response was observed in the case of plasma disruption with a time constant of 1 ms. In cases of start-up of the plasma current and plasma disruption with a time constant of 50 ms, the rigid ring vibrates quasi-statically. It is clear that the dynamic behavior of the vacuum vessel is governed mainly by the saddle-like electromagnetic force, with a smaller effect of the inverse saddle-like electromagnetic force on the dynamic response of the vacuum vessel. (orig.)
Clarke, Daniel; Mahul, Olivier
This paper aims to assist policy makers interested in establishing or strengthening financial strategies to increase the financial response capacity of developing country governments in the aftermath of natural disasters, while protecting their long-term fiscal balance. Contingent credit is shown to increase the ability of governments to self-insure by relaxing their short-term liquidity c...
Cammi, A.; Ricotti, M. E.; Casella, F.; Schiavo, F.
The pressurized light water cooled, medium power (1000 MWt) IRIS (International Reactor Innovative and Secure) has been under development for four years by an international consortium of over 21 organizations from ten countries. The plant conceptual design was completed in 2001 and the preliminary design is nearing completion. The pre-application licensing process with NRC started in October, 2002 and IRIS is one of the designs considered by US utilities as part of the ESP (Early Site Permit) process. In this paper the development of an adequate modeling and simulation tool for Dynamics and Control tasks is presented. The key features of the developed simulator are: a) Modularity: the system model is built by connecting the models of its components, which are written independently of their boundary conditions; b) Openness: the code of each component model is clearly readable and close to the original equations and easily customised by the experienced user; c) Efficiency: the simulation code is fast; d) Tool support: the simulation tool is based on reliable, tested and well-documented software. To achieve these objectives, the Modelica language was used as a basis for the development of the simulator. The Modelica language is the results of recent advances in the field of object-oriented, multi-physics, dynamic system modelling. The language definition is open-source and it has already been successfully adopted in several industrial fields. To provide the required capabilities for the analysis, specific models for nuclear reactor components have been developed, to be applied for the dynamic simulation of the IRIS integral reactor, albeit keeping general validity for PWR plants. The following Modelica models have been written to satisfy the IRIS modelling requirements and are presented in this paper: neutronics point kinetic, fuel heat transfer, control rods model, including the innovative internal drive mechanism type, and a once-through type steam generator, thus
Garbolino, Emmanuel; Chery, Jean-Pierre; Guarnieri, Franck
Seveso plants are complex sociotechnical systems, which makes it appropriate to support any risk assessment with a model of the system. However, more often than not, this step is only partially addressed, simplified, or avoided in safety reports. At the same time, investigations have shown that the complexity of industrial systems is frequently a factor in accidents, due to interactions between their technical, human, and organizational dimensions. In order to handle both this complexity and changes in the system over time, this article proposes an original and simplified qualitative risk evaluation method based on the system dynamics theory developed by Forrester in the early 1960s. The methodology supports the development of a dynamic risk assessment framework dedicated to industrial activities. It consists of 10 complementary steps grouped into two main activities: system dynamics modeling of the sociotechnical system and risk analysis. This system dynamics risk analysis is applied to a case study of a chemical plant and provides a way to assess the technological and organizational components of safety. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.
Aziz, T.S.; Meng, V.; Alizadeh, A.
CANDU reactors of the 600 MWe type are typically housed in a cylindrical prestressed concrete containment structure; rising from a flat slab and ending in a domed roof. The principal components of this structure are: (a) a circular base slab, (b) a vertical cylinder and (c) a spherical dome cap. A unique feature of a CANDU 600 MWe containment structure is the existence of an inner spherical concrete dome, located below the outer spherical dome, which serves as the bottom of a reservoir for the storage of 560,000 imperial gallons of douzing water. The thickness of the prestressed cylinder wall is approximately doubled between the two domes to create a ring beam. Inside the containment there exists an internal concrete structure which is independent of the containment structure except for support on the base slab. The containment boundary is a fully prestressed concrete structure. This paper deals with the seismic behaviour of the CANDU 600 MWe containment structure and the effect of its unique features; such as the lower dome and the douzing water on this behaviour. The objective of the study is to evaluate the interaction (coupling) effects between the different components of the structure. The approach taken is to study each component of the structure individually, then an assembly of the different components, and finally the total containment structure. This presentation is limited to the vertical response of the structure under a vertical earthquake only. Axisymmetric finite elements were used in all models. The vertical responses at selected points of the structure were obtained by the response spectrum method as well as the time-history method. It was observed that the response spectrum method over-estimates the vertical response of the domes and under-estimates the vertical responses of the ring girder and the containment cylinder compared to the time-history method. (orig./RW)
Hsueh, K.-S.; Wang Kong
The purpose of this dissertation is to develop a simulation based accident sequence analysis program (ADS) for large scale dynamic accident sequence simulation. Human operators, front-line and support systems as well as plant thermal-hydraulic behavior are explicitly modeled as integrated active parts in the development of accident scenarios. To overcome the model size, the proposed methodology employs several techniques including use of 'initial state vector' which decouples time-dependent and time-independent factors, and a depth first integration method in which the computation memory demand increases in a linear order. The computer implementation of the method is capable of simulating up to 500 branch points in sequence development, models system failure during operation, allows for recovery from operator errors and hardware failures, and implements a simple model for operator system interactions. (author)
Jansen, Jeroen J; van Dam, Nicole M; Hoefsloot, Huub C J; Smilde, Age K
Many plant species show induced responses that protect them against exogenous attacks. These responses involve the production of many different bioactive compounds. Plant species belonging to the Brassicaceae family produce defensive glucosinolates, which may greatly influence their favorable nutritional properties for humans. Each responding compound may have its own dynamic profile and metabolic relationships with other compounds. The chemical background of the induced response is therefore highly complex and may therefore not reveal all the properties of the response in any single model. This study therefore aims to describe the dynamics of the glucosinolate response, measured at three time points after induction in a feral Brassica, by a three-faceted approach, based on Principal Component Analysis. First the large-scale aspects of the response are described in a 'global model' and then each time-point in the experiment is individually described in 'local models' that focus on phenomena that occur at specific moments in time. Although each local model describes the variation among the plants at one time-point as well as possible, the response dynamics are lost. Therefore a novel method called the 'Crossfit' is described that links the local models of different time-points to each other. Each element of the described analysis approach reveals different aspects of the response. The crossfit shows that smaller dynamic changes may occur in the response that are overlooked by global models, as illustrated by the analysis of a metabolic profiling dataset of the same samples.
Smilde Age K
Full Text Available Abstract Background Many plant species show induced responses that protect them against exogenous attacks. These responses involve the production of many different bioactive compounds. Plant species belonging to the Brassicaceae family produce defensive glucosinolates, which may greatly influence their favorable nutritional properties for humans. Each responding compound may have its own dynamic profile and metabolic relationships with other compounds. The chemical background of the induced response is therefore highly complex and may therefore not reveal all the properties of the response in any single model. Results This study therefore aims to describe the dynamics of the glucosinolate response, measured at three time points after induction in a feral Brassica, by a three-faceted approach, based on Principal Component Analysis. First the large-scale aspects of the response are described in a 'global model' and then each time-point in the experiment is individually described in 'local models' that focus on phenomena that occur at specific moments in time. Although each local model describes the variation among the plants at one time-point as well as possible, the response dynamics are lost. Therefore a novel method called the 'Crossfit' is described that links the local models of different time-points to each other. Conclusions Each element of the described analysis approach reveals different aspects of the response. The crossfit shows that smaller dynamic changes may occur in the response that are overlooked by global models, as illustrated by the analysis of a metabolic profiling dataset of the same samples.
Vipulanandan, G; Herrera, M; Wiederhold, N P; Li, X; Mintz, J; Wickes, B L; Kadosh, D
Oral infections caused by Candida species, the most commonly isolated human fungal pathogen, are frequently associated with biofilms. Although Candida albicans is the predominant organism found in patients with oral thrush, a biofilm infection, there is an increasing incidence of oral colonization and infections caused by non- albicans Candida species, including C. glabrata, C. dubliniensis, and C. tropicalis, which are frequently more resistant to antifungal treatment. While single-species Candida biofilms have been well studied, considerably less is known about the dynamics of mixed- Candida species biofilms and how these dynamics are altered by antifungal treatment. To address these questions, we developed a quantitative polymerase chain reaction-based approach to determine the precise species composition of mixed- Candida species biofilms formed by clinical isolates and laboratory strains in the presence and absence of clinically relevant concentrations of 3 commonly used antifungals: fluconazole, caspofungin, and amphotericin B. In monospecies biofilms, fluconazole exposure favored growth of C. glabrata and C. tropicalis, while caspofungin generally favored significant growth of all species to a varying degree. Fluconazole was not effective against preformed mixed- Candida species biofilms while amphotericin B was potent. As a general trend, in mixed- Candida species biofilms, C. albicans lost dominance in the presence of antifungals. Interestingly, presence in mixed versus monospecies biofilms reduced susceptibility to amphotericin B for C. tropicalis and C. glabrata. Overall, our data suggest that antifungal treatment favors the growth of specific non- albicans Candida species in mixed- Candida species biofilms.
Full Text Available Prefabricated construction, a new direction for the future development of the Chinese construction industry, can maximize the requirements of “green”. As a new form of green building, prefabricated construction is of particular interest. On account of the immature development of the green building market in China, the investment risk for prefabricated construction is higher than for traditional architecture. Hence, it is especially important to improve its investment risk identification and management. This study adopts system dynamics and builds a risk identification feedback chart and risk flow chart, to comprehensively identify investment risks that projects in China may face and to process quantitative estimation of investment risk factors. Key factors influencing project investment risks are found, and corresponding measures are pointedly proposed. This paper may provide guidance and a reference for promoting the sound development of prefabricated construction in China.
Dai, H.L.; Wang, X.
In this paper, an analytical method is introduced to solve the problem for the dynamic stress-focusing and centred-effect of perturbation of the magnetic field vector in orthotropic cylinders under thermal and mechanical shock loads. Analytical expressions for the dynamic stresses and the perturbation of the magnetic field vector are obtained by means of finite Hankel transforms and Laplace transforms. The response histories of dynamic stresses and the perturbation of the field vector are also obtained. In practical examples, the dynamic focusing effect on both magnetoelastic stress and perturbation of the axial magnetic field vector in an orthotropic cylinder subjected to various shock loads is presented and discussed
Rainford, B.D.; McK Paul, D.; Warwick Univ., Coventry
Inelastic neutron scattering has been used to study the energy dependence of the paramagnetic response from CeFe 2 . Our results, when integrated over energy, are in excellent agreement with the polarised neutron experiments of Deportes et al., but the correlation length obtained by fitting the data to a double Lorentzian scattering function is significantly smaller than that derived previously
Andersen, Torben Juul
for durable advantages. Sustainable performance arguably derives from interactive decision-making processes that deal with opportunities as they emerge informed by updated environmental analytics. The combination of experiential insights from decentralized responses and forward-looking reasoning at the center...
Olsen, Kirk N.; Stevens, Catherine J.; Tardieu, Julien
Three experiments investigate psychological, methodological, and domain-specific characteristics of loudness change in response to sounds that continuously increase in intensity (up-ramps), relative to sounds that decrease (down-ramps). Timbre (vowel, violin), layer (monotone, chord), and duration (1.8 s, 3.6 s) were manipulated in Experiment 1.…
Full Text Available A nonlinear time-varying (NLTV dynamic model of a hypoid gear pair system with time-dependent mesh point, line-of-action vector, mesh stiffness, mesh damping, and backlash nonlinearity is formulated to analyze the transitional phase between nonlinear jump phenomenon and linear response. It is found that the classical jump discontinuity will occur if the dynamic mesh force exceeds the mean value of tooth mesh force. On the other hand, the propensity for the gear response to jump disappears when the dynamic mesh force is lower than the mean mesh force. Furthermore, the dynamic analysis is able to distinguish the specific tooth impact types from analyzing the behaviors of the dynamic mesh force. The proposed theory is general and also applicable to high-speed spur, helical and spiral bevel gears even though those types of gears are not the primary focus of this paper.
The topic of this book is known as dynamic scheduling, and is used to refer to three dimensions of project management and scheduling: the construction of a baseline schedule and the analysis of a project schedule's risk as preparation of the project control phase during project progress. This dynamic scheduling point of view implicitly assumes that the usability of a project's baseline schedule is rather limited and only acts as a point of reference in the project life cycle.
Smith, Liam; Eakins, Daniel; Chapman, David; Hooper, Paul
Understanding the dynamic performance of Additively Manufactured (AM) materials is important when designing components for real-world applications. A series of Taylor tests were carried out on AM and conventionally manufactured 316L Stainless Steel. AM specimens were produced with a Renishaw AM250 selective laser melting machine. Taylor tests were conducted in a reverse anvil-on-rod configuration with soft capture and post loading measurements used to corroborate high speed deformation imaging. The influence of microstructure orientation and surface roughness was investigated by manufacturing samples parallel and perpendicular to build direction and with both as-built and machined finishes. Results were compared with optimised Johnson-Cook and Zerilli-Armstrong constitutive models within AUTODYN FE software.
Liu, Dabiao; Yu, Longteng; He, Yuming; Peng, Kai; Liu, Jie; Guan, Juan; Dunstan, D. J.
The torsional properties of spider dragline silks from Nephila edulis and Nephila pilipes spiders are investigated by using a torsion pendulum technique. A permanent torsional deformation is observed after even small torsional strain. This behaviour is quite different from that of the other materials tested here, i.e., carbon fiber, thin metallic wires, Kevlar fiber, and human hair. The spider dragline thus displays a strong energy dissipation upon the initial excitation (around 75% for small strains and more for a larger strain), which correspondingly reduces the amplitude of subsequent oscillations around the new equilibrium position. The variation of torsional stiffness in relaxation dynamics of spider draglines for different excitations is also determined. The experimental result is interpreted in the light of the hierarchical structure of dragline silk.
Sahoo, Jitendra; Shadangi, Namita; Nayak, Pratibindhya
The phonon excitation spectrum of some Heavy Fermion (HF) systems in the presence of electron-phonon interaction is studied in the dynamic limit (ω≠0). The renormalized excitation phonon frequencies (ω˜ = ω/ω0) are evaluated through Periodic Anderson Model (PAM) in the presence of electron-phonon interaction using Zubarev-type double time temperature-dependent Green function. The calculated renormalized phonon energy is analyzed through the plots of (ω˜ = ω/ω0) against temperature for different system parameters like effective coupling strength ‘g’ and the position of f-level ‘d’. The observed behavior is analyzed and found to agree with the general features of HF systems found in experiments. Further, it is observed that in finite but small q-values the propagating phonons harden and change to localized peaks.
Jacquot, J.P.; Lobert, J.P.
The ''gamma thermometer'' is a sensor used to measure on line the local power inside a PWR nuclear reactor. During transients, this sensor based on thermal exchanges, obes not give a fast response. This paper describes a microprocessor device that allows using a digital filtering technique, a correction of the dynamic response [fr
Reid, Dugald; Liu, Huijun; Kelly, Simon
Establishment of symbiotic nitrogen-fixation in legumes is regulated by the plant hormone ethylene, but it has remained unclear whether and how its biosynthesis is regulated by the symbiotic pathway. We established a sensitive ethylene detection system for Lotus japonicus and found that ethylene...... production increased as early as six hours after inoculation with Mesorhizobium loti. This ethylene response was dependent on Nod factor production by compatible rhizobia. Analyses of nodulation mutants showed that perception of Nod factor was required for ethylene emission, while downstream transcription...... factors including CYCLOPS, NIN and ERN1 were not required for this response. Activation of the nodulation signalling pathway in spontaneously nodulating mutants was also sufficient to elevate ethylene production. Ethylene signalling is controlled by EIN2, which is duplicated in L. japonicus. We obtained...
Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Understanding the ecological consequences of roads and developing ways to mitigate their negative effects has become an important goal for many conservation biologists. Most mitigation measures are based on road mortality and barrier effects data. However, studying fine-scale individual spatial responses in roaded landscapes may help develop more cohesive road planning strategies for wildlife conservation. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We investigated how individuals respond in their spatial behavior toward a highway and its traffic intensity by radio-tracking two common species particularly vulnerable to road mortality (barn owl Tyto alba and stone marten Martes foina. We addressed the following questions: 1 how highways affected home-range location and size in the immediate vicinity of these structures, 2 which road-related features influenced habitat selection, 3 what was the role of different road-related features on movement properties, and 4 which characteristics were associated with crossing events and road-kills. The main findings were: 1 if there was available habitat, barn owls and stone martens may not avoid highways and may even include highways within their home-ranges; 2 both species avoided using areas near the highway when traffic was high, but tended to move toward the highway when streams were in close proximity and where verges offered suitable habitat; and 3 barn owls tended to cross above-grade highway sections while stone martens tended to avoid crossing at leveled highway sections. CONCLUSIONS: Mortality may be the main road-mediated mechanism that affects barn owl and stone marten populations. Fine-scale movements strongly indicated that a decrease in road mortality risk can be realized by reducing sources of attraction, and by increasing road permeability through measures that promote safe crossings.
Wells, Jesica; Somers, Jeffrey T.; Newby, N.; Gernhardt, Michael
The NASA Occupant Protection Group is charged with ensuring crewmembers are protected during all dynamic phases of spaceflight. Previous work with outside experts has led to the development of a definition of acceptable risk (DAR) for space capsule vehicles. The DAR defines allowable probability rates for various categories of injuries. An important question is how to validate these probabilities for a given vehicle. One approach is to impact test human volunteers under projected nominal landing loads. The main drawback is the large number of subject tests required to attain a reasonable level of confidence that the injury probability rates would meet those outlined in the DAR. An alternative is to mine existing databases containing human responses to impact. Testing an anthropomorphic test device (ATD) at the same human-exposure levels could yield a range of ATD responses that would meet DAR. As one aspect of future vehicle validation, the ATD could be tested in the vehicle's seat and suit configuration at nominal landing loads and compared with the ATD responses supported by the human data set. This approach could reduce the number of human-volunteer tests NASA would need to conduct to validate that a vehicle meets occupant protection standards. METHODS: The U.S. Air Force has recorded hundreds of human responses to frontal, lateral, and spinal impacts at many acceleration levels and pulse durations. All of this data are stored on the Collaborative Biomechanics Data Network (CBDN), which is maintained by the Wright Patterson Air Force Base (WPAFB). The test device for human occupant restraint (THOR) ATD was impact tested on WPAFB's horizontal impulse accelerator (HIA) matching human-volunteer exposures on the HIA to 5 frontal and 3 spinal loading conditions. No human injuries occurred as a result of these impact conditions. Peak THOR response variables for neck axial tension and compression, and thoracic-spine axial compression were collected. Maximal chest
Heo, G; Jeon, J; Son, B; Kim, C; Jeon, S; Lee, C
In this study, a cochlea-inspired artificial filter bank (CAFB) was developed to efficiently obtain dynamic response of a structure, and a dynamic response measurement of a cable-stayed bridge model was also carried out to evaluate the performance of the developed CAFB. The developed CAFB used a band-pass filter optimizing algorithm (BOA) and peakpicking algorithm (PPA) to select and compress dynamic response signal containing the modal information which was significant enough. The CAFB was then optimized about the El-Centro earthquake wave which was often used in the construction research, and the software implementation of CAFB was finally embedded in the unified structural management system (USMS). For the evaluation of the developed CAFB, a real time dynamic response experiment was performed on a cable-stayed bridge model, and the response of the cable-stayed bridge model was measured using both the traditional wired system and the developed CAFB-based USMS. The experiment results showed that the compressed dynamic response acquired by the CAFB-based USMS matched significantly with that of the traditional wired system while still carrying sufficient modal information of the cable-stayed bridge. (paper)
Full Text Available To address the drawback of traditional method of investigating dynamic responses of the continuous girder bridge with uniform cross-section under moving vehicular loads, the orthogonal experimental design method is proposed in this paper. Firstly, some empirical formulas of natural frequencies are obtained by theoretical derivation and numerical simulation. The effects of different parameters on dynamic responses of the vehicle-bridge coupled vibration system are discussed using our own program. Finally, the orthogonal experimental design method is proposed for the dynamic responses analysis. The results show that the effects of factors on dynamic responses are dependent on both the selected position and the type of the responses. In addition, the interaction effects between different factors cannot be ignored. To efficiently reduce experimental runs, the conventional orthogonal design is divided into two phases. It has been proved that the proposed method of the orthogonal experimental design greatly reduces calculation cost, and it is efficient and rational enough to study multifactor problems. Furthermore, it provides a good way to obtain more rational empirical formulas of the DLA and other dynamic responses, which may be adopted in the codes of design and evaluation.
Vezzaro, Luca; Grum, Morten
An innovative and generalised approach to the integrated Real Time Control of urban drainage systems is presented. The Dynamic Overflow Risk Assessment (DORA) strategy aims to minimise the expected Combined Sewer Overflow (CSO) risk by considering (i) the water volume presently stored in the drai......An innovative and generalised approach to the integrated Real Time Control of urban drainage systems is presented. The Dynamic Overflow Risk Assessment (DORA) strategy aims to minimise the expected Combined Sewer Overflow (CSO) risk by considering (i) the water volume presently stored...... and their uncertainty contributed to further improving the performance of drainage systems. The results of this paper will contribute to the wider usage of global RTC methods in the management of urban drainage networks....
Vezzaro, Luca; Grum, Morten
An innovative generalized approach for integrated real time control of urban drainage systems is presented. The Dynamic Overflow Risk Assessment (DORA) strategy tries to minimize the expected overflow risk by considering (i) the water volume presently stored in the drainage network, (ii) the expe......An innovative generalized approach for integrated real time control of urban drainage systems is presented. The Dynamic Overflow Risk Assessment (DORA) strategy tries to minimize the expected overflow risk by considering (i) the water volume presently stored in the drainage network, (ii...... to reduce Combined Sewer Overflow loads and to optimize the flow discharged to the wastewater treatment plant. Also, the inclusion of forecasts and their uncertainty contributed to further improve the performance of drainage systems. The results of this paper will contribute to a wider usage of global RTC...
Full Text Available We show how a general formulation of the Fluctuation-Response Relation is able to describe in detail the connection between response properties to external perturbations and spontaneous fluctuations in systems with fast and slow variables. The method is tested by using the 360-variable Lorenz-96 model, where slow and fast variables are coupled to one another with reciprocal feedback, and a simplified low dimensional system. In the Fluctuation-Response context, the influence of the fast dynamics on the slow dynamics relies in a non trivial behavior of a suitable quadratic response function. This has important consequences for the modeling of the slow dynamics in terms of a Langevin equation: beyond a certain intrinsic time interval even the optimal model can give just statistical prediction.
Hu, Yan; Wen, Jing-ya; Li, Xiao-li; Wang, Da-zhou; Li, Yu
Highlights: • Using interval mathematics to describe spatial and temporal variability and parameter uncertainty. • Using fuzzy theory to quantify variability of environmental guideline values. • Using probabilistic approach to integrate interval concentrations and fuzzy environmental guideline. • Establishment of dynamic multimedia environmental integrated risk assessment framework. -- Abstract: A dynamic multimedia fuzzy-stochastic integrated environmental risk assessment approach was developed for contaminated sites management. The contaminant concentrations were simulated by a validated interval dynamic multimedia fugacity model, and different guideline values for the same contaminant were represented as a fuzzy environmental guideline. Then, the probability of violating environmental guideline (Pv) can be determined by comparison between the modeled concentrations and the fuzzy environmental guideline, and the constructed relationship between the Pvs and environmental risk levels was used to assess the environmental risk level. The developed approach was applied to assess the integrated environmental risk at a case study site in China, simulated from 1985 to 2020. Four scenarios were analyzed, including “residential land” and “industrial land” environmental guidelines under “strict” and “loose” strictness. It was found that PAH concentrations will increase steadily over time, with soil found to be the dominant sink. Source emission in soil was the leading input and atmospheric sedimentation was the dominant transfer process. The integrated environmental risks primarily resulted from petroleum spills and coke ovens, while the soil environmental risks came from coal combustion. The developed approach offers an effective tool for quantifying variability and uncertainty in the dynamic multimedia integrated environmental risk assessment and the contaminated site management
Hu, Yan; Wen, Jing-ya; Li, Xiao-li; Wang, Da-zhou; Li, Yu, E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org
Highlights: • Using interval mathematics to describe spatial and temporal variability and parameter uncertainty. • Using fuzzy theory to quantify variability of environmental guideline values. • Using probabilistic approach to integrate interval concentrations and fuzzy environmental guideline. • Establishment of dynamic multimedia environmental integrated risk assessment framework. -- Abstract: A dynamic multimedia fuzzy-stochastic integrated environmental risk assessment approach was developed for contaminated sites management. The contaminant concentrations were simulated by a validated interval dynamic multimedia fugacity model, and different guideline values for the same contaminant were represented as a fuzzy environmental guideline. Then, the probability of violating environmental guideline (Pv) can be determined by comparison between the modeled concentrations and the fuzzy environmental guideline, and the constructed relationship between the Pvs and environmental risk levels was used to assess the environmental risk level. The developed approach was applied to assess the integrated environmental risk at a case study site in China, simulated from 1985 to 2020. Four scenarios were analyzed, including “residential land” and “industrial land” environmental guidelines under “strict” and “loose” strictness. It was found that PAH concentrations will increase steadily over time, with soil found to be the dominant sink. Source emission in soil was the leading input and atmospheric sedimentation was the dominant transfer process. The integrated environmental risks primarily resulted from petroleum spills and coke ovens, while the soil environmental risks came from coal combustion. The developed approach offers an effective tool for quantifying variability and uncertainty in the dynamic multimedia integrated environmental risk assessment and the contaminated site management.
Voss, Andreas; Schroeder, Rico; Caminal Magrans, Pere; Vallverdú Ferrer, Montserrat; Brunel, Helena; Cygankiewicz, I.; Vázquez, Rafael; Bayes de Luna, Antonio
Chronic heart failure (CHF) is recognized as major and escalating public health problem. Approximately 69% of CHF patients suffer from cardiac death within 5 years after the initial diagnosis. Until now, no generally accepted ECG risk predictors in CHF patients are available. The objective of this study was to investigate the suitability of the new developed non-linear method segmented symbolic dynamics (SSD) for risk stratification in patients with ischemic cardiomyop...
Zheng, Enlai; Zhu, Sihong; Zhou, Xinlong
It is essential to establish a dynamic model to predict and evaluate the dynamic performance of a nonlinear dry friction mounting system during design procedure, when it is impossible to carry out the test of prototype. Unlike the conventional ideal dry friction model where the direction of dry friction force is always considered to be opposite to that of relative velocity, a new equivalent resistance model of dry friction force is proposed based on the bilinear hysteretic model by introducing a parameter g in this work. The equivalent resistance contains spring force and damping force, whose direction is not opposite to that of relative velocity. Then, a dynamic model of the block foundation with nonlinear dry friction mounting system is established. When the equivalent resistance is applied to the dynamic model, its dynamic responses are obtained under common practical forms of press loads: rectangular pulse, half-sine pulse, and triangular pulse. Compared to experimental results, the dynamic responses based on the equivalent resistance model are more consistent with the simulation results based on the ideal dry friction model and the validity of the equivalent resistance model for the bilinear hysteretic model in this work is verified. Furthermore, the effect of the pulse shape and pulse duration on the dynamic responses of the block foundation with nonlinear dry friction mounting system is investigated.
Bayton, D.A.F.; Long, R.; Fourlaris, G.
Bolted road safety barrier connections utilise slotted holes that are perpendicular to the direction of the safety barrier beam. Due to the clearance between the slotted holes and the bolts, a varying amount of slippage is seen before contact with the edge of the slot is made. The stiffness characteristics of bolted road safety barrier connections have been examined with a representative test coupon that incorporates a full size safety barrier connection slot to industry standard dimensions. Previous research work has successfully determined the stiffness characteristics of the bolted connections at quasi-static strain rates. Representative non-linear finite element models of the bolted test coupons have been constructed. When compared to the laboratory results the initial stiffness, maximum force and displacement of the bolted connections are similar to the finite element model predictions. Current investigations have moved onto strain rates comparable to those observed in actual vehicle crash tests. Explicit dynamic finite element (FE) models have been constructed and validated, using experimental data produced using a series of high strain rate laboratory tests for a number of bolt configurations
Cao, Mengyi; Goodrich-Blair, Heidi
In mutually beneficial and pathogenic symbiotic associations, microbes must adapt to the host environment for optimal fitness. Both within an individual host and during transmission between hosts, microbes are exposed to temporal and spatial variation in environmental conditions. The phenomenon of phenotypic variation, in which different subpopulations of cells express distinctive and potentially adaptive characteristics, can contribute to microbial adaptation to a lifestyle that includes rapidly changing environments. The environments experienced by a symbiotic microbe during its life history can be erratic or predictable, and each can impact the evolution of adaptive responses. In particular, the predictability of a rhythmic or cyclical series of environments may promote the evolution of signal transduction cascades that allow preadaptive responses to environments that are likely to be encountered in the future, a phenomenon known as adaptive prediction. In this review, we summarize environmental variations known to occur in some well-studied models of symbiosis and how these may contribute to the evolution of microbial population heterogeneity and anticipatory behavior. We provide details about the symbiosis between Xenorhabdus bacteria and Steinernema nematodes as a model to investigate the concept of environmental adaptation and adaptive prediction in a microbial symbiosis. Copyright © 2017 American Society for Microbiology.
Guyant, E.; Han, W. S.; Kim, K. Y.; Park, E.; Han, K.
Monitoring of pressure buildup can provide explicit information on reservoir integrity and is an appealing tool, however pressure variation is dependent on a variety of factors causing high uncertainty in pressure predictions. This work evaluated pressurization of a reservoir system in the presence of leakage pathways as well as exploring the effects of compartmentalization of the reservoir utilizing design of experiments (Definitive Screening, Box Behnken, Central Composite, and Latin Hypercube designs) and response surface methods. Two models were developed, 1) an idealized injection scenario in order to evaluate the performance of multiple designs, and 2) a complex injection scenario implementing the best performing design to investigate pressurization of the reservoir system. A holistic evaluation of scenario 1, determined that the Central Composite design would be used for the complex injection scenario. The complex scenario evaluated 5 risk factors: reservoir, seal, leakage pathway and fault permeabilities, and horizontal position of the pathway. A total of 60 response surface models (RSM) were developed for the complex scenario with an average R2 of 0.95 and a NRMSE of 0.067. Sensitivity to the input factors was dynamic through space and time; at the earliest time (0.05 years) the reservoir permeability was dominant, and for later times (>0.5 years) the fault permeability became dominant for all locations. The RSM's were then used to conduct a Monte Carlo Analysis to further analyze pressurization risks, identifying the P10, P50, P90 values. This identified the in zone (lower) P90 values as 2.16, 1.77, and 1.53 MPa and above zone values of 1.35, 1.23, 1.09 MPa for monitoring locations 1, 2, and 3, respectively. In summary, the design of experiments and response surface methods allowed for an efficient sensitivity and uncertainty analysis to be conducted permitting a complete evaluation of the pressurization across the entire parameter space.
The question of how the public in many European countries and the US perceived the danger of the radiation fallout from Chernobyl and how they reacted to the management of risk in each country is addressed. In addition, the lessons learned about communicating risk are discussed on the basis of studies of public attitudes and the effects of media coverage. (author)
Dijk, van H.; Houghton, J.R.; Kleef, van E.; Lans, van der I.A.; Rowe, G.; Frewer, L.J.
Recent emphasis within policy circles has been on transparent communication with consumers about food risk management decisions and practices. As a consequence, it is important to develop best practice regarding communication with the public about how food risks are managed. In the current study,
Dijk, van H.
Communication about the healthiness of consuming different food products has typically involved either health messages about the associated risks or benefits. In reality, consumption decisions often involve consumers “trading-off” the risks and benefits associated with the consumption of a
Risks are high on the agenda in our society, to the extent that we might refer to the society as a risk society. Our society experiences emerging technologies, like nanotechnology. Different actors respond to this in a variety of ways. Among these are the consumers, an important, but neglected
Full Text Available The dynamic flexural behaviour of the railway bridge is influenced by its torsional behaviour. Especially, in the case of girder railway bridges, the dynamic response tends to amplify when the natural frequency in flexure (1st vibration mode is close to that in torsion (2nd vibration mode. In order to prevent such situation, it is necessary to adopt a flexural-to-torsional natural frequency ratio larger than 120%. This study proposes a solution shifting the natural frequency in torsion to high frequency range and restraining torsion by installing concrete panels on the bottom flange of the girder so as to prevent the superposition of the responses in the girder bridge. The applicability of this solution is examined by finite element analysis of the shift of the torsional natural frequency and change in the dynamic response according to the installation of the concrete panels. The analytical results for a 30 m-span girder railway bridge indicate that installing the concrete panels increases the natural frequency in torsion by restraining the torsional behaviour and reduces also the overall dynamic response. It is seen that the installation of 100 mm-thick concrete panels along a section of 4 m at both extremities of the girder can reduce the dynamic response by more than 30%.
Although Hamiltonians of various kinds have previously been used to derive Green-Kubo relations for the transport coefficients, the particular choice described is uniquely related to thermodynamics. This nonequilibrium Hamiltonian formulation of fluid flow provides pedagogically simple routes to nonequilibrium fluxes and distribution functions, to theoretical understanding of long-time effects, and to new numerical methods for simulating systems far from equilibrium. The same methods are now being applied to solid-phase problems. At the relatively high frequencies used in the viscous fluid calculations described, solids typically behave elastically. Lower frequencies lead to the formation of dislocations and other defects, making it possible to study plastic flow. A property of the nonequilibrium equations of motion which might be profitably explored is their effective irreversibility. Because only a few particles are necessary to generate irreversible behavior, simulations using adiabatic deformations of the kind described here could perhaps elucidate the instability in the equations of motion responsible for irreversibility
Fessler, Michael B.
Cholesterol has typically been considered an exogenous, disease-related factor in immunity; however, recent literature suggests that a paradigm shift is in order. Sterols are now recognized to ligate several immune receptors. Altered flux through the mevalonic acid synthesis pathway also appears to be a required event in the antiviral interferon response of macrophages and in the activation, proliferation, and differentiation of T cells. In this review, evidence is discussed that suggests an intrinsic, ‘professional’ role for sterols and oxysterols in macrophage and T cell immunity. Host defense may have been the original selection pressure behind the development of mechanisms for intracellular cholesterol homeostasis. Functional coupling between sterol metabolism and immunity has fundamental implications for health and disease. PMID:27692616
Nielsen, Pia Lund
Climate is changing, and more adverse changes are expected in the future. Changes, caused by continuously rising atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gasses as CO2, will affect ecosystem processes and functions in the future and hence the cycling of carbon. The vaste amount of studies have...... layers showed much slower decomposition than fine root from top layer. Higher roots biomass and allocation of carbon deeper down in the soil profile in response to elevated CO2 combined with the slower decomposition of deep roots could affect future carbon cycling, but soil carbon sequestration depends...... focused on effects of climate change on aboveground biomass, less have been conducted on belowground biomass, and the thesis is one of few studies comprising both above- and belowground biomass and take interactions of climate change factors into account. To follow the fate of carbon in the ecosystem we...
Krutzik, N.J.; Petrovski, D.; Sachanski, S.
Within the framework of investigating of the capacity of the WWER-100 at the Belene site, an analysis was performed using revised seismic input data as well as two alternative foundation concepts (natural soil and soil exchange). The starting point for the analysis was the development of a suitable model of the coupled structures (base building, external building, containment, internal structure) and soil taking into account the real properties of the originally layered as well as the exchanged soil. The soil-structure effects were considered according to the analytical method employed, either through soil impedance (substructure method) or explicitly by a complex (direct method). On the basis of the results obtained by the two methods (substructure and direct method) the seismic safety of the complex structures for different foundation concepts was evaluated. By comparing the calculated structural response with the design spectra originally used for the design of components and systems the available safety margin was estimated
Frincu, Marc; Chelmis, Charalampos; Aman, Saima; Saeed, Rizwan; Zois, Vasileios; Prasanna, Viktor
Demand response (DR) is a technique used in smart grids to shape customer load during peak hours. Automated DR offers utilities a fine grained control and a high degree of confidence in the outcome. However the impact on the customer's comfort means this technique is more suited for industrial and commercial settings than for residential homes. In this paper we propose a system for achieving automated controlled DR in a heterogeneous environment. We present some of the main issues arising in building such a system, including privacy, customer satisfiability, reliability, and fast decision turnaround, with emphasis on the solutions we proposed. Based on the lessons we learned from empirical results we describe an integrated automated system for controlled DR on the USC microgrid. Results show that while on a per building per event basis the accuracy of our prediction and customer selection techniques varies, it performs well on average when considering several events and buildings.
Shafi, Kamran; Bender, Axel; Zhong, Weicai; Abbass, Hussein A.
In a globalised world where risks spread through contagion, the decision of an entity to invest in securing its premises from stochastic risks no longer depends solely on its own actions but also on the actions of other interacting entities in the system. This phenomenon is commonly seen in many domains including airline, logistics and computer security and is referred to as Interdependent Security (IDS). An IDS game models this decision problem from a game-theoretic perspective and deals with the behavioural dynamics of risk-reduction investments in such settings. This paper enhances this model and investigates the spatio-temporal aspects of the IDS games. The spatio-temporal dynamics are studied using simple replicator dynamics on a variety of network structures and for various security cost tradeoffs that lead to different Nash equilibria in an IDS game. The simulation results show that the neighbourhood configuration has a greater effect on the IDS game dynamics than network structure. An in-depth empirical analysis of game dynamics is carried out on regular graphs, which leads to the articulation of necessary and sufficient conditions for dominance in IDS games under spatial constraints.
Teye, A.L.; de Haan, J.; Elsinga, M.G.
The recent Global Financial Crisis has lent even greater urgency to the need for households to understand the risks and dynamics of the residential property market better. This paper uses a rich dataset on individual residential property transactions between 1995 and 2014 in Amsterdam to study the
In 2004, an association between human carriage of methicillin resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) and contact with pigs was found. To assess the implications of this finding for veterinary and public health more insight into the prevalence, risk factors and transmission dynamics of
Snijders, G.; Schiweck, C.; Mesman, E.; Grosse, L.; De Wit, H.; Nolen, W. A.; Drexhage, H. A.; Hillegers, M. H. J.
Objectives: T cell abnormalities have been repeatedly reported in adult patients with mood disorders, suggesting a role of these cells in the pathogenesis of these disorders. In the present study, we explored the dynamics of circulating T cell subsets over time in a population at high familial risk
Snijders, G.; Schiweck, C.; Mesman, E.; Grosse, L.; De Wit, H.; Nolen, W. A.; Drexhage, H. A.; Hillegers, M. H. J.
OBJECTIVES: T cell abnormalities have been repeatedly reported in adult patients with mood disorders, suggesting a role of these cells in the pathogenesis of these disorders. In the present study, we explored the dynamics of circulating T cell subsets over time in a population at high familial risk
Mi, Zhi-Fu; Wei, Yi-Ming; Tang, Bao-Jun
) and GARCH model on the basis of generalized error distribution (GED). The results show that EVT is a powerful approach to capture the risk in the oil markets. On the contrary, the traditional variance–covariance (VC) and Monte Carlo (MC) approaches tend to overestimate risk when the confidence level is 95......%, but underestimate risk at the confidence level of 99%. The VaR of WTI returns is larger than that of Brent returns at identical confidence levels. Moreover, the GED-GARCH model can estimate the downside dynamic VaR accurately for WTI and Brent oil returns....
In this paper, we derive the dynamics and assess the economic value of currency speculation by formalizing the concept of a trader inaction range. We show that exchange rate returns comprise a time-varying risk-premium and that uncovered interest parity (UIP) holds in a speculative sense. The often......-cited ‘forward bias puzzle’ originates from the omission of the risk-premium in standard UIP tests. Consistent with its popularity among market professionals, the carry-trade strategy can be rationalized as it systematically collects risk-premia, however, the economic value generated by bilateral carry-trades...
Ott, Richard J.
Pyrotechnic shock events used during stage separation on rocket vehicles produce high amplitude short duration structural response that can lead to malfunction or degradation of electronic components, cracks and fractures in brittle materials, local plastic deformation, and can cause materials to experience accelerated fatigue life. These transient loads propagate as waves through the structural media losing energy as they travel outward from the source. This work assessed available test data in an effort to better understand attenuation characteristics associated with wave propagation and attempted to update a historical standard defined by the Martin Marietta Corporation in the late 1960's using out of date data acquisition systems. Two data sets were available for consideration. The first data set came from a test that used a flight like cylinder used in NASA's Ares I-X program, and the second from a test conducted with a flat plate. Both data sets suggested that the historical standard was not a conservative estimate of shock attenuation with distance, however, the variation in the test data did not lend to recommending an update to the standard. Beyond considering attenuation with distance an effort was made to model the flat plate configuration using finite element analysis. The available flat plate data consisted of three groups of tests, each with a unique charge density linear shape charge (LSC) used to cut an aluminum plate. The model was tuned to a representative test using the lowest charge density LSC as input. The correlated model was then used to predict the other two cases by linearly scaling the input load based on the relative difference in charge density. The resulting model predictions were then compared with available empirical data. Aside from differences in amplitude due to nonlinearities associated with scaling the charge density of the LSC, the model predictions matched the available test data reasonably well. Finally, modeling best
Thormann, Esben; Evans, Drew R.; Craig, Vincent S. J.
The high-frequency and low-amplitude dynamic mechanical response from a single poly(vinyl alcohol) chain was investigated. Modification of a commercial atomic force microscope enabled high-frequency and low-amplitude periodic deformations of polymer chains during extension to be performed...... mechanical response from poly(vinyl alcohol) does not differ from its static response. This result is not unexpected as poly(vinyl alcohol) is a highly flexible polymer with intramolecular relaxation processes taking place on a short time scale. The choice of a polymer with a fast relaxation allows its...... static properties to be recovered from the dynamic measurements and enables the method suggested in this paper for decoupling the polymer response from the hydrodynamic response to be validated....
Chen, Y.; Wang, J.; Wang, H. H.; Yang, L.; Chen, W.; Xu, Y. T.
Double-fed induction generator (DFIG) is sensitive to the disturbances of grid, so the security and stability of the grid and the DFIG itself are under threat with the rapid increase of DFIG. Therefore, it is important to study dynamic response of the DFIG when voltage drop failure is happened in power system. In this paper, firstly, mathematical models and the control strategy about mechanical and electrical response processes is respectively introduced. Then through the analysis of response process, it is concluded that the dynamic response characteristics are related to voltage drop level, operating status of DFIG and control strategy adapted to rotor side. Last, the correctness of conclusion is validated by the simulation about mechanical and electrical response processes in different voltage levels drop and different DFIG output levels under DIgSILENT/PowerFactory software platform.
José Lamartine Távora Junior
Full Text Available The objective of this paper was to analyze the risk management of a portfolio composed by Petrobras PN, Telemar PN and Vale do Rio Doce PNA stocks. It was verified if the modeling of Value-at-Risk (VaR through the place Monte Carlo simulation with volatility of GARCH family is supported by hypothesis of efficient market. The results have shown that the statistic evaluation in inferior to dynamics, evidencing that the dynamic analysis supplies support to the hypothesis of efficient market of the Brazilian share holding market, in opposition of some empirical evidences. Also, it was verified that the GARCH models of volatility is enough to accommodate the variations of the shareholding Brazilian market, since the model is capable to accommodate the great dynamic of the Brazilian market.
Appelt, Ane Lindegaard; Vogelius, Ivan R
Several clinical risk factors for radiation induced toxicity have been identified in the literature. Here, we present a method to quantify the effect of clinical risk factors on radiation dose-response curves and apply the method to adjust the dose-response for radiation pneumonitis for patients...
This report considers some measurements made of the dynamics of the HTGC Dragon reactor and the optimization of a mathematical model which represents the reactor, by altering the parameters until a least squares fit between the experimental responses and the mathematical model is obtained. The experimental information was processed in various ways. The experimental response to an impulse, step or periodic sine wave change in reactivity was processed as an impulse, step or periodic sine wave response respectively and compared with a similar response from the model. In other studies the result of a binary cross correlation experiment (effectively an impulse response input) was processed as a frequency response and this experimental frequency response was compared with the frequency response from the mathematical model. It was possible therefore to compare the optimum values of parameters, obtained for different forms of perturbing signal and for different methods of processing and to relate the optima obtained to the problem of parameter estimation. (author)
Abu-Yasein, Omar Ali
This dissertation presents a method to determine the load capacity as well as end member forces and deformations of frames with partial rigid joint connections by using the direct stiffness method. The connections are modeled as rotational springs attached at the ends of framed members. The lumped mass method, which is an approximate method, and the distributed mass method, which is an exact method, are also presented to compute the natural frequency of frames. The effects of the axial forces and the flexibility of joint connections are both included. Furthermore, the time-dependent response of semi-rigid frames subjected to periodic axial forces is formulated. The harmonic function is approximated by dividing the periodic function into n intervals and the periodic axial forces are evaluated at each time interval as constant forces using 'piecewise approximation'. The regions of instability of frames with different joint stiffness were determined using the characteristic equation method. The time-dependent part of the differential equation for free vibration of a framed member subjected to a harmonic force can be written in the form of the Mathieu-Hill equation where all characteristics of the Mathieu-Hill equation solutions can be used to determine the boundaries of instability regions.
This report examines the behaviour of underground openings in discontinuous rock in response to seismic waves associated with either earthquakes or rock bursts. A literature search revealed that well-constructed underground structures, such as would be expected for nuclear fuel waste disposal vaults, underground pumped-storage or nuclear plants, have an extremely high resistance to damage from seismic motion. To complement these qualitative results, it was necessary to examine the basic mechanisms of the entire progression of seismic motion, from wave generation and propagation, to wave interaction with the underground opening. From these investigations, it was found that unless a seismic event occurs very close to the installation, the stresses generated will be low with respect to the excavation stresses, because high stress waves are rapidly attenuated in travelling through rock. As well, an earthquake may generate extremely high accelerations, but is limited in the maximum amount of stress that it can create. The question, however, of the actual specific nature of underground seismic motions still remains essentially unanswered, although it is expected that there is a reduction in peak motions with depth due to the effect of the free surface of the earth
Shekhar, Sudhanshu; Joyee, Antony George; Yang, Xi
Natural killer T (NKT) cells have gained great attention owing to their critical functional roles in immunity to various pathogens. In this review, we provide an overview of the current knowledge on the role of NKT cells in host defense against and pathogenesis due to Chlamydia, which is an intracellular bacterial pathogen that poses a threat to the public health worldwide. Accumulating evidence has demonstrated that NKT cells, particularly invariant NKT (iNKT) cells, play a crucial role in host defense against chlamydial infections, especially in C. pneumoniae infection. iNKT cells can promote type-1 protective responses to C. pneumoniae by inducing enhanced production of IL-12 by dendritic cells (DCs), in particular CD8α+ DCs, which promote the differentiation of naive T cells into protective IFN-γ-producing Th1/Tc1 type CD4+/CD8+ T cells. This iNKT-cell-mediated modulation of DC function is largely dependent upon CD40-CD40L interaction, IFN-γ production, and cell-to-cell contact. In addition, iNKT cells modulate the function of natural killer cells. NKT cells may be also involved in the pathogenesis of some chlamydial diseases by inducing different patterns of cytokine production. A better understanding of NKT-cell biology will enable us to rationally design prophylactic and therapeutic tools to combat infectious diseases.
Li, X. Y.; Wang, L. X.; Law, S. S.; Nie, Z. H.
A new approach to address the practical problems with condition evaluation/damage detection of structures is proposed based on the distinct features of a new damage index. The covariance of strain response function (CoS) is a function of modal parameters of the structure. A local stiffness reduction in structure would cause monotonous increase in the CoS. Its sensitivity matrix with respect to local damages of structure is negative and narrow-banded. The damage extent can be estimated with an approximation to the sensitivity matrix to decouple the identification equations. The CoS sensitivity can be calibrated in practice from two previous states of measurements to estimate approximately the damage extent of a structure. A seven-storey plane frame structure is numerically studied to illustrate the features of the CoS index and the proposed method. A steel circular arch in the laboratory is tested. Natural frequencies changed due to damage in the arch and the damage occurrence can be judged. However, the proposed CoS method can identify not only damage happening but also location, even damage extent without need of an analytical model. It is promising for structural condition evaluation of selected components.
A REDUCED-ORDER MODEL FOR EVALUATING THE DYNAMIC RESPONSE OF MULTILAYER PLATES TO IMPULSIVE LOADS Weiran Jiang, Alyssa Bennett, Nickolas...innovative multilayer materials or structures to optimize the dynamic performance as a mechanism to absorb and spread energy from an impulsive load...models. • Optimizing the structural weight and levels of protection of the multilayer plates with a good combination of materials. Technical Approach 2016
The purpose of this research was to evaluate the dynamic variation in asphalt pavement critical responses due to dynamic tire load variations. An attempt was also made to develop generalized regression equations to predict the dynamic response variation in flexible pavement under various dynamic load conditions. The study used an extensive database of computed pavement response histories for five different types of sites (smooth, rough, medium rough, very rough and severely rough), two different asphalt pavement structures (thin and thick) at two temperatures (70 °F and 104 °F), subjected to a tandem axle dual tire at three speeds 25, 37 and 50 mph (40, 60 and 80 km/h). All pavement responses were determined using the 3D-Move Analysis program (Version 1.2) developed by University of Nevada, Reno. A new term called Dynamic Response Coefficient (DRC) was introduced in this study to address the variation in critical pavement responses due to dynamic loads as traditionally measured by the Dynamic Load Coefficient (DLC). While DLC represents the additional varying component of the tire load, DRC represents the additional varying component of the response value (standard deviation divided by mean response). In this study, DRC was compared with DLC for five different sites based on the roughness condition of the sites. Previous studies showed that DLC varies with vehicle speed and suspension types, and assumes a constant value for the whole pavement structure (lateral and vertical directions). On the other hand, in this study, DRC was found to be significantly varied with the asphalt pavement and function of pavement structure, road roughness conditions, temperatures, vehicle speeds, suspension types, and locations of the point of interest in the pavement. A major contribution of the study is that the variation of pavement responses due to dynamic load in a flexible pavement system can be predicted with generalized regression equations. Fitting parameters (R2) in the
Serban, Viorel; Androne, Marian; Ciocan, George Alexandru; Zamfir, Madalina; Florea, Ioana; Panait, Adrian; Prisecaru, Ilie
Buildings, equipment and pipe networks are dynamically, oscillating structures that may build-up energy or not, from the excitation, amplifying or damping their response as a function of the rate between the system vibration Eigen period and the repetition period of the dynamic excitation and the system damping capacity. This paper is an analysis in time and frequency of the dynamic response of an oscillating system subject to a periodic excitation. The results of the conducted analysis show how a system must be sized for the transfer of energy from excitation to the system be minimized, the system builds-up as less kinetic and elastic energy as possible and the system response to accelerations, velocity and distortions be also minimal. (author)
Yao Ye; Liu Shiqing
This paper mainly concerned about the dynamic response model of wet cooling coils that is developed by the Laplace transform method. The theoretic equations are firstly established based on the theory of energy conservation. Then, the transfer functions on the transient responses of wet cooling coils have been deduced using the method of Laplace transform. The transfer functions reveal the dynamic relationships between the inlet variables and the outlet ones of the cooling coils. Partial-fraction method and Newton-Raphson method are both used in the inversion of the transfer functions from the s-domain to τ-domain. To make the dynamic model of wet cooling coils more adaptive, RBFNN method is employed to determine the coefficients of heat and mass transfer. Experiments have been done and manifested that the coefficients of heat and mass transfer by RBFNN will be of great value to the validity of the transient response model of wet cooling coils in this study
Yang, J H; Yang, J; Kitipornchai, S
This paper presents an investigation on the nonlinear dynamic response of piezoelectric cylindrical shells reinforced with boron nitride nanotubes (BNNTs) under a combined axisymmetric electro-thermo-mechanical loading. By employing the classical Donnell shell theory, the von Kármán–Donnell kinematic relationship, and a piezo-elastic constitutive law including thermal effects, the nonlinear governing equations of motion of the shell are derived through the Reissner variational principle. The finite difference method and a time-integration scheme are used to obtain the nonlinear dynamic response of the BNNT-reinforced piezoelectric shell. A parametric study is conducted, showing the effects of geometrically nonlinear deformation, applied voltage, temperature change, mechanical load, BNNT volume fraction and boundary conditions on the nonlinear dynamic response. (paper)
Lee, C. H.; Kawatani, M.; Kim, C. W.; Nishimura, N.; Kobayashi, Y.
This study proposes a dynamic response analysis procedure for traffic-induced vibration of a monorail bridge and train. Each car in the monorail train is idealized as a dynamic system of 15-degrees-of-freedom. The governing equations of motion for a three-dimensional monorail bridge-train interaction system are derived using Lagrange's formulation for monorail trains, and a finite-element method for modal analysis of monorail bridges. Analytical results on dynamic response of the monorail train and bridge are compared with field-test data in order to verify the validity of the proposed analysis procedure, and a positive correlation is found. An interesting feature of the monorail bridge response is that sway motion is caused by torsional behavior resulting from eccentricity between the shear center of the bridge section and the train load.
Macleod, Colin D.; Macleod, Ross; Learmonth, Jennifer A.; Cresswell, Will; Pierce, G.J.
Fear of predation produces large effects on prey population dynamics through indirect risk effects that can cause even greater impacts than direct predation mortality. As yet, there is no general theoretical framework for predicting when and how these population risk effects will arise in specific prey populations, meaning there is often little consideration given to the key role predator risk effects can play in understanding conservation and wildlife management challenges. Here, we propose ...
Persky, Susan; McBride, Colleen M; Faith, Myles S; Wagner, Laura K; Ward, Dianne S
This study explored the influence of family health history-based obesity risk feedback for their child on 147 overweight mothers' guilt related to children's lifestyle behaviors and passing down a genetic propensity for overweight. Mothers were randomized to receive, or not, obesity risk feedback for their 4- to 5-year-old child and then made food choices for them using a virtual reality-based buffet. Receipt of risk information increased lifestyle- and genetics-related guilt. Choosing fewer unhealthful foods for the child attenuated both types of guilt. Work in this area may aid in development of obesity risk feedback strategies that enhance child feeding. © The Author(s) 2015.
Zhang, Xiang; Loda, Justin B; Woodall, William H
For a patient who has survived a surgery, there could be several levels of recovery. Thus, it is reasonable to consider more than two outcomes when monitoring surgical outcome quality. The risk-adjusted cumulative sum (CUSUM) chart based on multiresponses has been developed for monitoring a surgical process with three or more outcomes. However, there is a significant effect of varying risk distributions on the in-control performance of the chart when constant control limits are applied. To overcome this disadvantage, we apply the dynamic probability control limits to the risk-adjusted CUSUM charts for multiresponses. The simulation results demonstrate that the in-control performance of the charts with dynamic probability control limits can be controlled for different patient populations because these limits are determined for each specific sequence of patients. Thus, the use of dynamic probability control limits for risk-adjusted CUSUM charts based on multiresponses allows each chart to be designed for the corresponding patient sequence of a surgeon or a hospital and therefore does not require estimating or monitoring the patients' risk distribution. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Fua, Karl C; Teachman, Bethany A
Past research has shown that an individual's feelings at any given moment reflect currently experienced stimuli as well as internal representations of similar past experiences. However, anxious individuals' affective reactions to streams of interrelated valenced information (vs. reactions to static stimuli that are arguably less ecologically valid) are rarely tracked. The present study provided a first examination of the newly developed Tracking Affect Ratings Over Time (TAROT) task to continuously assess anxious individuals' affective reactions to streams of information that systematically change valence. Undergraduate participants (N = 141) completed the TAROT task in which they listened to narratives containing positive, negative, and neutral physically- or socially-relevant events, and indicated how positive or negative they felt about the information they heard as each narrative unfolded. The present study provided preliminary evidence for the validity and reliability of the task. Within scenarios, participants higher (vs. lower) in anxiety showed many expected negative biases, reporting more negative mean ratings and overall summary ratings, changing their pattern of responding more quickly to negative events, and responding more negatively to neutral events. Furthermore, individuals higher (vs. lower) in anxiety tended to report more negative minimums during and after positive events, and less positive maximums after negative events. Together, findings indicate that positive events were less impactful for anxious individuals, whereas negative experiences had a particularly lasting impact on future affective responses. The TAROT task is able to efficiently capture a number of different cognitive biases, and may help clarify the mechanisms that underlie anxious individuals' biased negative processing. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).
Beaver, P.F.; Bines, W.P.
This paper describes the legal framework in place when the revised risk estimates were announced by the International Commission for Radiological Protection (ICRP) in 1987 and how an addition to that framework enabled the revised risk estimates to be taken into account when making decisions about radiation protection practice both at plant and individual worker level. It is suggested that this a may be an early example of the use of a constraint applied generically. (author)
Full Text Available Dynamic response analysis has potential for increasing fatigue life of the components in the transmission of a multistage main transmission system. The calculated data can demonstrate the influence of shaft torsional stiffness on dynamic characteristics of the system. Detecting key shafts of the system and analyzing their sensitivity are important for the design of four-stage helicopter gear box. Lumped mass method is applied for dynamic modeling and Fourier method is used to solve differential equation of the system. Results of the analysis indicate that key shafts can be designed carefully to improve the performance of the transmission system.
Full Text Available The dynamic behavior of a predator-prey model with Holling type IV functional response is investigated with respect to impulsive control strategies. The model is analyzed to obtain the conditions under which the system is locally asymptotically stable and permanent. Existence of a positive periodic solution of the system and the boundedness of the system is also confirmed. Furthermore, numerical analysis is used to discover the influence of impulsive perturbations. The system is found to exhibit rich dynamics such as symmetry-breaking pitchfork bifurcation, chaos, and nonunique dynamics.
Bai Zhenguo; Zhou Yicang
This paper studies the global dynamics of a viral infection model that takes into account circadian rhythm and time delay in the CTL response. It is shown that the basic reproduction numbers, R 0 and R 1 , determine the outcome of viral infection. Numerical simulations demonstrate that the changes in the amplitude of lytic component can generate a variety of dynamical patterns, ranging from simple daily oscillation to multi-day dynamics and eventually chaos, whereas time delay can alter the period of oscillation for the larger level of periodic forcing. These results can help to explain the viral oscillation behaviors, which were observed in chronic HBV and HCV infection patients.
Leezenbaum, Nina B; Campbell, Susan B; Butler, Derrecka; Iverson, Jana M
This study investigates mothers' responses to infant communication among infants at heightened genetic risk (high risk) of autism spectrum disorder compared to infants with no such risk (low risk). A total of 26 infants, 12 of whom had an older sibling with autism spectrum disorder, were observed during naturalistic in-home interaction and semistructured play with their mothers at 13 and 18 months of age. Results indicate that overall, mothers of low-risk and high-risk infants were highly and similarly responsive to their infants' communicative behaviors. However, examination of infant vocal and gestural communication development together with maternal verbal responses and translations (i.e. verbally labeling a gesture referent) suggests that delays in early communication development observed among high-risk infants may alter the input that these infants receive; this in turn may have cascading effects on the subsequent development of communication and language. © The Author(s) 2013.
Balán, Iván C.; Barreda, Victoria; Marone, Rubén; Ávila, María Mercedes; Carballo-Diéguez, Alex
Venue-based HIV prevention interventions, especially in sex on premise venues, can disrupt high-risk sexual networks. However, prior to intervening, it is essential to understand the person-venue dynamics that contribute to HIV risk. As such, we conducted five ethnographic observations at each of six venues where alcohol is sold and sex occurs onsite (2 each porn theaters, sex clubs, and dance clubs) frequented by gay and other men who have sex with men (G&MSM) in the Buenos Aires metropolitan area. Alcohol use, sexual behavior, and person-venue dynamics differed markedly across venue types. In dance clubs, substantial alcohol consumption often preceded visits to the darkroom for sex which, at times, included unprotected anal and vaginal intercourse. Condoms, although available, were not easily accessible. HIV prevention messaging was generally non-existent. These venues are in critical need of interventions to reduce HIV transmission risk. PMID:24691922
Balán, Iván C; Barreda, Victoria; Marone, Rubén; Avila, María Mercedes; Carballo-Diéguez, Alex
Venue-based HIV prevention interventions, especially in sex on premise venues, can disrupt high-risk sexual networks. However, prior to intervening, it is essential to understand the person-venue dynamics that contribute to HIV risk. As such, we conducted five ethnographic observations at each of six venues where alcohol is sold and sex occurs onsite (2 each porn theaters, sex clubs, and dance clubs) frequented by gay and other men who have sex with men (G&MSM) in the Buenos Aires metropolitan area. Alcohol use, sexual behavior, and person-venue dynamics differed markedly across venue types. In dance clubs, substantial alcohol consumption often preceded visits to the darkroom for sex which, at times, included unprotected anal and vaginal intercourse. Condoms, although available, were not easily accessible. HIV prevention messaging was generally non-existent. These venues are in critical need of interventions to reduce HIV transmission risk.
R. A. P. Perdigão
Full Text Available The dynamical evolution of the flood response to landscape-climate feedbacks is evaluated in a joint nonlinear statistical-dynamical approach. For that purpose, a spatiotemporal sensitivity analysis is conducted on hydrological data from 1976–2008 over 804 catchments throughout Austria, and a general, data-independent nonlinear dynamical model is built linking floods with climate (via precipitation, landscape (via elevation and their feedbacks. These involve nonlinear scale interactions, with landform evolution processes taking place at the millennial scale (slow dynamics, and climate adjusting in years to decades (fast dynamics. The results show that floods are more responsive to spatial (regional than to temporal (decadal variability. Catchments from dry lowlands and high wetlands exhibit similarity between the spatial and temporal sensitivities (spatiotemporal symmetry and low landscape-climate codependence, suggesting they are not coevolving significantly. However, intermediate regions show differences between those sensitivities (symmetry breaks and higher landscape-climate codependence, suggesting undergoing coevolution. The break of symmetry is an emergent behaviour from nonlinear feedbacks within the system. A new coevolution index is introduced relating spatiotemporal symmetry with relative characteristic celerities, which need to be taken into account in hydrological space-time trading. Coevolution is expressed here by the interplay between slow and fast dynamics, represented respectively by spatial and temporal characteristics. The dynamical model captures emerging features of the flood dynamics and nonlinear landscape-climate feedbacks, supporting the nonlinear statistical assessment of spatiotemporally asymmetric flood change. Moreover, it enables the dynamical estimation of flood changes in space and time from the given knowledge at different spatiotemporal conditions. This study ultimately brings to light emerging signatures of
Full Text Available As China’s electricity market is facing many problems, the research on power producer’s bidding behavior can promote the healthy and sustainable development of China’s electricity market. As a special commodity, the “electricity” possesses complicated production process. The instable market constraint condition, nonsymmetric information, and a lot of random factors make the producer’s bidding process more complex. Best-response dynamic is one of the classic dynamic mechanisms of the evolutionary game theory, which applies well in the repeated game and strategy evolution that happen among a few bounded rational players with a quick learning capability. The best-response dynamic mechanism is employed to study the power producer’s bidding behavior in this paper, the producer’s best-response dynamic model is constructed, and how the producers would engage in bidding is analyzed in detail. Taking two generating units in South China regional electricity market as the example, the producer’s bidding behavior by following the producer’s best-response dynamic model is verified. The relationships between the evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS of power producer’s bidding and the market demand, and ceiling and floor price as well as biding frequency are discussed in detail.
Bucknor, Matthew D.
Fires at a nuclear power plant are a safety concern because of their potential to defeat the redundant safety features that provide a high level of assurance of the ability to safely shutdown the plant. One of the added complexities of providing protection against fires is the need to determine the likelihood of electrical cable failure which can lead to the loss of the ability to control or spurious actuation of equipment that is required for safe shutdown. A number of plants are now transitioning from their deterministic fire protection programs to a risk-informed, performance based fire protection program according to the requirements of National Fire Protection Association (NFPA) 805. Within a risk-informed framework, credit can be taken for the analysis of fire progression within a fire zone that was not permissible within the deterministic framework of a 10 CFR 50.48 Appendix R safe shutdown analysis. To perform the analyses required for the transition, plants need to be able to demonstrate with some level of assurance that cables related to safe shutdown equipment will not be compromised during postulated fire scenarios. This research contains the development of new cable failure models that have the potential to more accurately predict electrical cable failure in common cable bundle configurations. Methods to determine the thermal properties of the new models from empirical data are presented along with comparisons between the new models and existing techniques used in the nuclear industry today. A Dynamic Event Tree (DET) methodology is also presented which allows for the proper treatment of uncertainties associated with fire brigade intervention and its effects on cable failure analysis. Finally a shielding analysis is performed to determine the effects on the temperature response of a cable bundle that is shielded from a fire source by an intervening object such as another cable tray. The results from the analyses demonstrate that models of similar
Renneboog, L.D.R.; Ter Horst, J.R.; Zhang, C.
This paper surveys the literature on socially responsible investments (SRI). Over the past decade, SRI has experienced an explosive growth around the world. Particular to the SRI funds is that both financial goals and social objectives are pursued. While corporate social responsibility (CSR) -
Jain, A.; Leka, S.; Zwetsloot, G.
Corporate social responsibility (CSR) is a comprehensive concept that aims at the promotion of responsible business practices closely linked to the strategy of enterprises. Although there is no single accepted definition of CSR, it remains an inspiring, challenging and strategic development that is
A method is presented to calculate the dynamic time history response of finite-element models using results from response spectrum analyses. The proposed modified time history method does not represent a new mathamatical approach to dynamic analysis but suggests a more efficient ordering of the analytical equations and procedures. The modified time history method is considerably faster and less expensive to use than normal time hisory methods. This paper presents the theory and implementation of the modified time history approach along with comparisons of the modified and normal time history methods for a prototypic seismic piping design problem
Lin, H.C.; Hsieh, B.J.; Valentin, R.A.
The endochronic theory of plasticity proposed by Valanis has been applied in predicting the inelastic responses of structural systems. A recently developed convected coordinates finite-element program has been modified to use an endochronic constitutive law. A series of sample problems for a variety of dynamic loadings are presented. The calculations that have been performed comparing classical and endochronic plasticity theories have revealed that the endochronic approach can result in a substantial reduction in computer time for equivalent solution accuracy. This result, combined with the apparent accuracy of material representation indicate that the use of endochronic plasticity has great potential in evaluating the dynamic response of structural systems. (orig.)
Thomsen, Kim; Klit, Peder
For some hydrodynamic bearing applications polymer-lined bearings are chosen over traditional metal alloy bearings due to their better wear and friction properties when operating at very thin films, e.g. in the mixed lubrication region. The introduction of a compliant layer also affects the dynamic...... used to evaluate hydrodynamic bearing designs: dynamic response, maximum pressure, minimum film thickness, wear, power loss and temperature response. The primary findings are that the maximum pressures are reduced significantly and this comes at the expense of slightly higher eccentricity ratios during...
Hildebrandt, Thomas; Mukkamala, Raghava Rao
We present Dynamic Condition Response Graphs (DCR Graphs) as a declarative, event-based process model inspired by the workflow language employed by our industrial partner and conservatively generalizing prime event structures. A dynamic condition response graph is a directed graph with nodes repr...... exemplify the use of distributed DCR Graphs on a simple workflow taken from a field study at a Danish hospital, pointing out their flexibility compared to imperative workflow models. Finally we provide a mapping from DCR Graphs to Buchi-automata....
Through the use of the double-shell concept the dynamic loads applied by a hypothetical aircraft impact as well as the response of the structure can be reduced significantly. Steel-fiber-reinforced concrete shells with thicknesses of about 0.8 m have a sufficient nonlinear capacity for loads applied by a military airplane such as the Phantom jet. The secondary impact after damage of the outer shell as well as the dynamic response of the structure can be additionally reduced using damping material supporting the impacted shell. Construction of the double shell design does not result in any practical problems. (orig./HP)
Giorgia Maria Bosi
Full Text Available During Atrial Fibrillation (AF more than 90% of the left atrial thrombi responsible for thromboembolic events originate in the left atrial appendage (LAA, a complex small sac protruding from the left atrium (LA. Current available treatments to prevent thromboembolic events are oral anticoagulation, surgical LAA exclusion, or percutaneous LAA occlusion. However, the mechanism behind thrombus formation in the LAA is poorly understood. The aim of this work is to analyse the hemodynamic behaviour in four typical LAA morphologies - “Chicken wing”, “Cactus”, “Windsock” and “Cauliflower” - to identify potential relationships between the different shapes and the risk of thrombotic events. Computerised tomography (CT images from four patients with no LA pathology were segmented to derive the 3D anatomical shape of LAA and LA. Computational Fluid Dynamic (CFD analyses based on the patient-specific anatomies were carried out imposing both healthy and AF flow conditions. Velocity and shear strain rate (SSR were analysed for all cases. Residence time in the different LAA regions was estimated with a virtual contrast agent washing out. CFD results indicate that both velocity and SSR decrease along the LAA, from the ostium to the tip, at each instant in the cardiac cycle, thus making the LAA tip more prone to fluid stagnation, and therefore to thrombus formation. Velocity and SSR also decrease from normal to AF conditions. After four cardiac cycles, the lowest washout of contrast agent was observed for the Cauliflower morphology (3.27% of residual contrast in AF, and the highest for the Windsock (0.56% of residual contrast in AF. This suggests that the former is expected to be associated with a higher risk of thrombosis, in agreement with clinical reports in the literature. The presented computational models highlight the major role played by the LAA morphology on the hemodynamics, both in normal and AF conditions, revealing the potential
De-Escalation Strategies in Human Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor 2 (HER2)-Positive Early Breast Cancer (BC): Final Analysis of the West German Study Group Adjuvant Dynamic Marker-Adjusted Personalized Therapy Trial Optimizing Risk Assessment and Therapy Response Prediction in Early BC HER2- and Hormone Receptor-Positive Phase II Randomized Trial-Efficacy, Safety, and Predictive Markers for 12 Weeks of Neoadjuvant Trastuzumab Emtansine With or Without Endocrine Therapy (ET) Versus Trastuzumab Plus ET.
Harbeck, Nadia; Gluz, Oleg; Christgen, Matthias; Kates, Ronald Ernest; Braun, Michael; Küemmel, Sherko; Schumacher, Claudia; Potenberg, Jochem; Kraemer, Stefan; Kleine-Tebbe, Anke; Augustin, Doris; Aktas, Bahriye; Forstbauer, Helmut; Tio, Joke; von Schumann, Raquel; Liedtke, Cornelia; Grischke, Eva-Maria; Schumacher, Johannes; Wuerstlein, Rachel; Kreipe, Hans Heinrich; Nitz, Ulrike Anneliese
Purpose Human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-positive/hormone receptor (HR)-positive breast cancer is a distinct subgroup associated with lower chemotherapy sensitivity and slightly better outcome than HER2-positive/HR-negative disease. Little is known about the efficacy of the combination of endocrine therapy (ET) with trastuzumab or with the potent antibody-cytotoxic, anti-HER2 compound trastuzumab emtansine (T-DM1) with or without ET for this subgroup. The West German Study Group trial, ADAPT (Adjuvant Dynamic Marker-Adjusted Personalized Therapy Trial Optimizing Risk Assessment and Therapy Response Prediction in Early Breast Cancer) compares pathologic complete response (pCR) rates of T-DM1 versus trastuzumab with ET in early HER2-positive/HR-positive breast cancer. Patients and Methods In this prospective, neoadjuvant, phase II trial, 375 patients with early breast cancer with HER2-positive and HR-positive status (n = 463 screened) were randomly assigned to 12 weeks of T-DM1 with or without ET or to trastuzumab with ET. The primary end point was pCR (ypT0/is/ypN0). Early response was assessed in 3-week post-therapeutic core biopsies (proliferation decrease ≥ 30% Ki-67 or cellularity response). Secondary end points included safety and predictive impact of early response on pCR. Adjuvant therapy followed national standards. Results Baseline characteristics were well balanced among the arms. More than 90% of patients completed the therapy per protocol. pCR was observed in 41.0% of patients treated with T-DM1, 41.5% of patients treated with T-DM1 and ET, and 15.1% with trastuzumab and ET ( P < .001). Early responders (67% of patients with assessable response) achieved pCR in 35.7% compared with 19.8% in nonresponders (odds ratio, 2.2; 95% CI, 1.24 to 4.19). T-DM1 was associated with a significantly higher prevalence of grade 1 to 2 toxicities, especially thrombocytopenia, nausea, and elevation of liver enzymes. Overall toxicity was low; seventeen
Bhatti, Abdul Qadir
To demonstrate the characteristics of the nonlinear response of steel frames, an elastic dynamic response analysis of the semi-rigid frame is performed under the harmonic wave. The semi-rigid contact is represented by the alternating spring which is given stiffness by a three-parameter energy model which approaches the hysterical curve by hardening model. The properties of spectra and hysteric curves are presented. This study shows that (1) the greater the acceleration input capacitance the smaller the instant connection capability and the smaller is the response. (2) However, by allowing an extreme increase in capacitance input acceleration, response spectra can be increased as the contact stiffness results near zero.
Mamre, Mari Olsen
Using different econometric approaches and based on a panel of 21 OECD countries this thesis investigate whether differences in structural or policy factors significantly affects the price responsiveness of shocks to demand in the short run and in the cases of abrupt movements in real prices. Over such steeper areas of the housing cycle the analysis focus specifically on finding evidence of asymmetric responses of demand and structural factors on price dynamics. The study of asymmetries in th...
Antown, Fadi; Dragičević, Davor; Froyland, Gary
The linear response of a dynamical system refers to changes to properties of the system when small external perturbations are applied. We consider the little-studied question of selecting an optimal perturbation so as to (i) maximise the linear response of the equilibrium distribution of the system, (ii) maximise the linear response of the expectation of a specified observable, and (iii) maximise the linear response of the rate of convergence of the system to the equilibrium distribution. We also consider the inhomogeneous, sequential, or time-dependent situation where the governing dynamics is not stationary and one wishes to select a sequence of small perturbations so as to maximise the overall linear response at some terminal time. We develop the theory for finite-state Markov chains, provide explicit solutions for some illustrative examples, and numerically apply our theory to stochastically perturbed dynamical systems, where the Markov chain is replaced by a matrix representation of an approximate annealed transfer operator for the random dynamical system.
Full Text Available Machine foundations require significant attention from designers. The main goal of the design of machine foundation is to limit the amplitude displacement and not disturb the people who work near the machine. In some cases, if the design of machine foundations does not satisfy the acceptable value of the dynamic response (such as maximum amplitude of displacement, the stabilization of soil under the machine foundation may be used to decrease the amplitude of displacement. This paper outlines effect of stabilized soil under the foundation by cement on the displacement response of machine foundations. Three-dimensional analyses by using finite element method are carried out to investigate the effect of depth of stabilized layer with different percentage of cement content on the dynamic response of the machine foundation. In addition, the effect of area stabilized by cement material on the dynamic response of machine foundation is investigated. The results shown that, the dynamic response of machine foundations generally decreases with increasing the depth of soil layer stabilized with cement. A significant decrease in the displacement of machine foundations is occurred for the stabilized soil layer with a depth of two times of the width of foundation, and the optimum percentage of cement for stabilizing is 6%.
Graber, Robert R.
A capability for rapidly performing quantitative risk assessments has been developed by JSC Safety and Mission Assurance for use on project design trade studies early in the project life cycle, i.e., concept development through preliminary design phases. A risk assessment tool set has been developed consisting of interactive and integrated software modules that allow a user/project designer to assess the impact of alternative design or programmatic options on the probability of mission success or other risk metrics. The risk and design trade space includes interactive options for selecting parameters and/or metrics for numerous design characteristics including component reliability characteristics, functional redundancy levels, item or system technology readiness levels, and mission event characteristics. This capability is intended for use on any project or system development with a defined mission, and an example project will used for demonstration and descriptive purposes, e.g., landing a robot on the moon. The effects of various alternative design considerations and their impact of these decisions on mission success (or failure) can be measured in real time on a personal computer. This capability provides a high degree of efficiency for quickly providing information in NASA s evolving risk-based decision environment
Keinan, Ruty; Bereby-Meyer, Yoella
Not getting vaccinated or not backing up computer files are examples of passive risk taking: risk brought on or magnified by inaction. We suggest the difficulty in paying attention to absences, together with the reduced agency and responsibility that is associated with passive choices, leads to the perception of passive risks as being less risky than equivalent active risks. Using scenarios in which risk was taken either actively or passively, we demonstrate that passive risks are judged as less risky than equivalent active risks. We find the perception of personal responsibility mediates the differences between the perception of passive and active risks. The current research offers an additional explanation for omission or default biases: The passive nature of these choices causes them to appear less risky than they really are.
Heinälä, Milla; Gundert-Remy, Ursula; Wood, Maureen Heraty
A scientifically sound assessment of the risk to human health resulting from acute chemical releases is the cornerstone for chemical incident prevention, preparedness and response. Although the general methodology to identify acute toxicity of chemicals has not substantially changed in the last....../corrosive chemicals will remain serious risks also in future the development of plausible scenarios for potential emerging risks is also needed. This includes risks from new mixtures and chemicals (e.g. nanoparticles)....
Huelsnitz, Chloe O; Farrell, Allison K; Simpson, Jeffry A; Griskevicius, Vladas; Szepsenwol, Ohad
Jealousy is a complex, dynamic experience that unfolds over time in relationship-threatening situations. Prior research has used retrospective reports that cannot disentangle initial levels and change in jealousy in response to escalating threat. In three studies, we examined responses to the Response Escalation Paradigm (REP)-a 5-stage hypothetical scenario in which individuals are exposed to increasing levels of relationship threat-as a function of attachment orientations. Highly anxious individuals exhibited hypervigilant, slow escalation response patterns, interfered earlier in the REP, felt more jealousy, sadness, and worry when they interfered, and wanted to engage in more vigilant, destructive, and passive behaviors aimed at their partner. Highly avoidant individuals felt more anger when they interfered in the REP and wanted to engage in more partner-focused, destructive behaviors. The REP offers a dynamic method for inducing and examining jealousy and introduces a novel approach to studying other emotional experiences.
Risks are high on the agenda in our society, to the extent that we might refer to the society as a risk society. Our society experiences emerging technologies, like nanotechnology. Different actors respond to this in a variety of ways. Among these are the consumers, an important, but neglected category of actors in this context. Arguably it is in our role as consumers we first encountered nanotechnology, in the form of nano-enabled products at the consumers market. What consumers think and do...
Full Text Available The financial risk characterises the variability of net profit, subject to the financial structure of the insurance. The capital of the insurance company has two elements (the equity and the borrowed one that differ fundamentally in the cost they generate. If the company uses loans, it will bear systematically the related financial expenses, too. Through its size and cost, indebtedness leads to the variation and changes the size of financial risk. Resorting to the debt is justified through the high remuneration of equity in relation to borrowed capital, thus increasing the financial return.
Cozen, Wendy; Cortessis, Victoria; Conti, David; Vandenberg, David; Nathwani, Bharat; Mack, Thomas; Rachidivian, Ramya
.... Here we will further test the hypothesis that the susceptible immuno-phenotype for HL is determined by a genetic tendency toward an exaggerated Th2 and/or inflammatory response and/or a depressed Th1...
Full Text Available Unicellular organisms such as yeasts have evolved mechanisms to respond to environmental stresses by rapidly reorganizing the gene expression program. Although many stress-response genes in yeast have been discovered by DNA microarrays, the stress-response transcription factors (TFs that regulate these stress-response genes remain to be investigated. In this study, we use a dynamic system model of gene regulation to describe the mechanism of how TFs may control a gene’s expression. Then, based on the dynamic system model, we develop the Stress Regulator Identification Algorithm (SRIA to identify stress-response TFs for six kinds of stresses. We identified some general stress-response TFs that respond to various stresses and some specific stress-response TFs that respond to one specifi c stress. The biological significance of our findings is validated by the literature. We found that a small number of TFs is probably suffi cient to control a wide variety of expression patterns in yeast under different stresses. Two implications can be inferred from this observation. First, the response mechanisms to different stresses may have a bow-tie structure. Second, there may be regulatory cross-talks among different stress responses. In conclusion, this study proposes a network of stress-response regulators and the details of their actions.
Kang, Dae Il, E-mail: email@example.com [KAERI, 1045 Daedeokdaero, Yuseong-Gu, Daejeon 305-353 (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Kilyoo; Jang, Seung-Cheol [KAERI, 1045 Daedeokdaero, Yuseong-Gu, Daejeon 305-353 (Korea, Republic of); Yoo, Seong Yeon [Chungnam National University, 79, Daehagro, Yuseong-Gu, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)
Highlights: • A decision tree for evaluating the risk of a main control board (MCB) fire was proposed to systematically determine the MCB fire scenarios. • Fire simulations using fire dynamics simulator (FDS) were performed to estimate the time to MCR abandonment. • Non-propagating and propagating fire scenarios were considered for fire simulations. • The current study indicates that the quantification of the MCB fire risk should address the propagating fire and non-propagating fire scenarios if the MCB has no internal barriers between the panels. - Abstract: This paper presents the process and results of a risk assessment for a main control board (MCB) fire using fire dynamics simulator (FDS). A decision tree for evaluating the risk of a MCB fire was proposed to systematically determine the MCB fire scenarios, and fire simulations using FDS were performed to estimate the time to MCR abandonment. As a reference NPP for this study, Hanul unit 3 in Korea was selected and its core damage frequency (CDF) owing to the MCB fire was quantified. Two types of fire scenarios were considered for fire simulations: non-propagating fire scenarios occurring within a single MCB panel and propagating fire scenarios spreading from one control panel to the adjacent panels. Further, the fire scenarios were classified into fires with and without a heating, ventilation, and air conditioning system (HVACS). The fire simulation results showed that the major factor causing the MCR evacuation was the optical density irrelevant to the availability of the HVACS. The risk assessment results showed that the abandonment fire scenario risk was less than the non-abandonment fire scenario risk and the propagating fire scenario risk was greater than the non-propagating fire scenario risk.
Peters, C.A.; Knightes, C.D.; Brown, D.G.
Subsurface contaminants such as coal tar, creosote, diesel fuel, and other petroleum-derived materials typically exist as very complex chemical mixtures. Risk assessment is useful for site management if a single metric can represent the composition-dependent risk profile of the mixture. This paper examines the factors governing human health risk assessment for multicomponent nonaqueous phase liquids (NAPLs) containing polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). A model is presented describing the interdependence of the dissolution rates of individual compounds and the shifts in the NAPL composition that occur due to the large differences in aqueous solubilities. The model also accounts for solidification of the less soluble NAPL constituents. Thirty-year numerical simulations describe composition dynamics for natural environmental processes as well as three remediation processes: pump-and-treat, bioremediation, and solvent extraction. Carcinogenic risk due to ingestion of contaminated groundwater at the source is estimated, and its dependence on contaminant removal and NAPL composition shifts is described. When composition dynamics are slow, a compound like naphthalene has great potential to contribute to risk because it may persist in groundwater. When there is significant depletion of the lower molecular weight compounds, the risk is dominated by contributions from compounds such as benzo[a]pyrene. Remediation technologies have the greatest potential for risk reduction if they are effective in removing the more carcinogenic, high molecular weight compounds. Because PAHs can contribute to risk for different reasons and because of the interdependence of their behaviors, compositional approaches lead to better risk predictions for PAHs than simple lumped metrics such as total petroleum hydrocarbon (TPH)
Kang, Dae Il; Kim, Kilyoo; Jang, Seung-Cheol; Yoo, Seong Yeon
Highlights: • A decision tree for evaluating the risk of a main control board (MCB) fire was proposed to systematically determine the MCB fire scenarios. • Fire simulations using fire dynamics simulator (FDS) were performed to estimate the time to MCR abandonment. • Non-propagating and propagating fire scenarios were considered for fire simulations. • The current study indicates that the quantification of the MCB fire risk should address the propagating fire and non-propagating fire scenarios if the MCB has no internal barriers between the panels. - Abstract: This paper presents the process and results of a risk assessment for a main control board (MCB) fire using fire dynamics simulator (FDS). A decision tree for evaluating the risk of a MCB fire was proposed to systematically determine the MCB fire scenarios, and fire simulations using FDS were performed to estimate the time to MCR abandonment. As a reference NPP for this study, Hanul unit 3 in Korea was selected and its core damage frequency (CDF) owing to the MCB fire was quantified. Two types of fire scenarios were considered for fire simulations: non-propagating fire scenarios occurring within a single MCB panel and propagating fire scenarios spreading from one control panel to the adjacent panels. Further, the fire scenarios were classified into fires with and without a heating, ventilation, and air conditioning system (HVACS). The fire simulation results showed that the major factor causing the MCR evacuation was the optical density irrelevant to the availability of the HVACS. The risk assessment results showed that the abandonment fire scenario risk was less than the non-abandonment fire scenario risk and the propagating fire scenario risk was greater than the non-propagating fire scenario risk
Ichinose, Masashi; Ichinose-Kuwahara, Tomoko; Kondo, Narihiko; Nishiyasu, Takeshi
Reducing blood flow to working muscles during dynamic exercise causes metabolites to accumulate within the active muscles and evokes systemic pressor responses. Whether a similar cardiovascular response is elicited with normal blood flow to exercising muscles during dynamic exercise remains unknown, however. To address that issue, we tested whether cardiovascular responses are affected by increases in blood flow to active muscles. Thirteen healthy subjects performed dynamic plantarflexion exercise for 12 min at 20%, 40%, and 60% of peak workload (EX20, EX40, and EX60) with their lower thigh enclosed in a negative pressure box. Under control conditions, the box pressure was the same as the ambient air pressure. Under negative pressure conditions, beginning 3 min after the start of the exercise, the box pressure was decreased by 20, 45, and then 70 mmHg in stepwise fashion with 3-min step durations. During EX20, the negative pressure had no effect on blood flow or the cardiovascular responses measured. However, application of negative pressure increased blood flow to the exercising leg during EX40 and EX60. This increase in blood flow had no significant effect on systemic cardiovascular responses during EX40, but it markedly attenuated the pressor responses otherwise seen during EX60. These results demonstrate that during mild exercise, normal blood flow to exercising muscle is not a factor eliciting cardiovascular responses, whereas it elicits an important pressor effect during moderate exercise. This suggests blood flow to exercising muscle is a major determinant of cardiovascular responses during dynamic exercise at higher than moderate intensity. Copyright © 2015 the American Physiological Society.
Salvado, F.C.; Teixeira-Dias, Filipe; Walley, S.; Lea, L.J.; Cardoso, J.B.
The response of structures and materials subject to ballistic impacts or blast loads remains a field of intense research. In a blast or impact load a sharp pressure wave travelling at supersonic speed impinges on the structure surface where deformation will develop at very high strain rates and stress waves may form and travel through the continuum solid. Both the dynamic loading and the temperature increase will significantly affect the mechanical and failure response of the material. This r...
out continuously in time to evaluate the dynamic response to mental stress and attention. The results show an increased heart and respiratory rate during stress and attention, compared to a resting condition. Also a fast reduction in vagal activity is noted. The partial TF analysis reveals a faster reduction of RRV power related to (3 s than unrelated to (30 s respiration, demonstrating that the autonomic response to mental stress is driven by mechanisms characterized by different temporal scales.
Christiansen, Niels Hørbye; Høgsberg, Jan Becker; Winther, Ole
It is shown how artificial neural networks can be trained to predict dynamic response of a simple nonlinear structure. Data generated using a nonlinear finite element model of a simplified wind turbine is used to train a one layer artificial neural network. When trained properly the network is ab...... to perform accurate response prediction much faster than the corresponding finite element model. Initial result indicate a reduction in cpu time by two orders of magnitude....
In the dynamic response of structures by the modal superposition method usually only the lower modes are taken into account and a procedure that could estimate the contribution due to the higher modes without calculating them would be useful. The technique which consists of assuming that the higher modes respond statically is discussed here. Structures subjected to support motion which are analysed by response spectra techniques are considered and some numerical results are presented. (Author) [pt
The Information Age, with its new technologies, is accompanied by an accelerating shift in work relations, of which this article focuses on connectivity, interdependence and dynamism. Along with this change in relations, new ethical cultures and responsibilities are evolving at different levels: individual, corporate, governmental, NGO, and global. This article zooms in on theoretical developments related to Corporate Social Responsibility to see how they have evolved to adapt to the new mode...
Kikkert, Lisette H J; de Groot, Maartje H; van Campen, Jos P; Beijnen, Jos H; Hortobágyi, Tibor; Vuillerme, Nicolas; Lamoth, Claudine C J
Fall prediction in geriatric patients remains challenging because the increased fall risk involves multiple, interrelated factors caused by natural aging and/or pathology. Therefore, we used a multi-factorial statistical approach to model categories of modifiable fall risk factors among geriatric patients to identify fallers with highest sensitivity and specificity with a focus on gait performance. Patients (n = 61, age = 79; 41% fallers) underwent extensive screening in three categories: (1) patient characteristics (e.g., handgrip strength, medication use, osteoporosis-related factors) (2) cognitive function (global cognition, memory, executive function), and (3) gait performance (speed-related and dynamic outcomes assessed by tri-axial trunk accelerometry). Falls were registered prospectively (mean follow-up 8.6 months) and one year retrospectively. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) on 11 gait variables was performed to determine underlying gait properties. Three fall-classification models were then built using Partial Least Squares-Discriminant Analysis (PLS-DA), with separate and combined analyses of the fall risk factors. PCA identified 'pace', 'variability', and 'coordination' as key properties of gait. The best PLS-DA model produced a fall classification accuracy of AUC = 0.93. The specificity of the model using patient characteristics was 60% but reached 80% when cognitive and gait outcomes were added. The inclusion of cognition and gait dynamics in fall classification models reduced misclassification. We therefore recommend assessing geriatric patients' fall risk using a multi-factorial approach that incorporates patient characteristics, cognition, and gait dynamics.
Lisette H J Kikkert
Full Text Available Fall prediction in geriatric patients remains challenging because the increased fall risk involves multiple, interrelated factors caused by natural aging and/or pathology. Therefore, we used a multi-factorial statistical approach to model categories of modifiable fall risk factors among geriatric patients to identify fallers with highest sensitivity and specificity with a focus on gait performance. Patients (n = 61, age = 79; 41% fallers underwent extensive screening in three categories: (1 patient characteristics (e.g., handgrip strength, medication use, osteoporosis-related factors (2 cognitive function (global cognition, memory, executive function, and (3 gait performance (speed-related and dynamic outcomes assessed by tri-axial trunk accelerometry. Falls were registered prospectively (mean follow-up 8.6 months and one year retrospectively. Principal Component Analysis (PCA on 11 gait variables was performed to determine underlying gait properties. Three fall-classification models were then built using Partial Least Squares-Discriminant Analysis (PLS-DA, with separate and combined analyses of the fall risk factors. PCA identified 'pace', 'variability', and 'coordination' as key properties of gait. The best PLS-DA model produced a fall classification accuracy of AUC = 0.93. The specificity of the model using patient characteristics was 60% but reached 80% when cognitive and gait outcomes were added. The inclusion of cognition and gait dynamics in fall classification models reduced misclassification. We therefore recommend assessing geriatric patients' fall risk using a multi-factorial approach that incorporates patient characteristics, cognition, and gait dynamics.
A theoretical framework for risk assessment studies is presented. Methodologies from various disciplines can be used within this framework to allow a scientific approach to the understanding of complex interactions between technological and social systems. A pilot application of an attitude-formation model to examine the underlying determinants of groups for and against nuclear power is summarized. (author)
Hess, Stephen M.; Albano, Alfonso M.; Gaertner, John P.
Application of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) techniques to model nuclear power plant accident sequences has provided a significant contribution to understanding the potential initiating events, equipment failures and operator errors that can lead to core damage accidents. Application of the lessons learned from these analyses has resulted in significant improvements in plant operation and safety. However, this approach has not been nearly as successful in addressing the impact of plant processes and management effectiveness on the risks of plant operation. The research described in this paper presents an alternative approach to addressing this issue. In this paper we propose a dynamical systems model that describes the interaction of important plant processes on nuclear safety risk. We discuss development of the mathematical model including the identification and interpretation of significant inter-process interactions. Next, we review the techniques applicable to analysis of nonlinear dynamical systems that are utilized in the characterization of the model. This is followed by a preliminary analysis of the model that demonstrates that its dynamical evolution displays features that have been observed at commercially operating plants. From this analysis, several significant insights are presented with respect to the effective control of nuclear safety risk. As an important example, analysis of the model dynamics indicates that significant benefits in effectively managing risk are obtained by integrating the plant operation and work management processes such that decisions are made utilizing a multidisciplinary and collaborative approach. We note that although the model was developed specifically to be applicable to nuclear power plants, many of the insights and conclusions obtained are likely applicable to other process industries
Full Text Available High speed maglev is one of the most important reformations in the ground transportation systems because of its no physical contact nature. This paper intends to study the dynamic response of the single-span guideway induced by moving maglev train. The dynamic model of the maglev train-guideway system is established. In this model, a maglev train consists of three vehicles and each vehicle is regarded as a multibody system with 34 degrees-of-freedom. The guideway is modeled as a simply supported beam. Considering the motion-dependent nature of electromagnetic forces in the maglev system, an iterative approach is presented to compute the dynamic response of a maglev train-guideway system. The histories of the train traversing the guideways are simulated and the dynamic responses of the guideway and the train vehicles are calculated. A field experiment is carried out to verify the results of the analysis. The resonant conditions of single-span guideway are analyzed. The results show that all the dynamic indexes of train-guideway system are far less than permissive values of railway and maglev system, the vertical resonant of guideways caused by periodical excitations of the train will not happen.
Watabe, M.; Fukuzawa, R.; Chiba, O.; Toritani, T.
The authors tried to establish the rational and economical model due to the vertical component considering the dynamic soil-structure interaction effects and the flexibility of the mat foundation. Three types of models were introduced. 1) Finite element model. Two cases of response analyses due to harmonic excitations with the finite element model were performed in which the mat foundation was treated rigid and elastic body. The dynamic soil-structure interaction effects were evaluated based on the condition that soil was semiinfinite elastic medium. 2) Sophisticated mass-spring-dashpot model. Two cases of response analyses due to harmonic excitations were performed to simulate the dynamic characteristics of the finite element models mentioned above using the sophisticated mass-spring-dashpot model, in which the dynamic soil-structure interaction effects were evaluated with the same procedure applied to the finite element model. 3) Simplified mass-spring-dashpot model. There were introduced three types of the simplified mass-spring-dashpot model in which the dynamic soil-structure interaction effects were simplified. Response analyses due to harmonic excitations and earthquake ground motions were performed in order to establish the rational and economical model. (orig./HP)
Full Text Available Dynamic stress concentration in tunnels and underground structures during earthquakes often leads to serious structural damage. A series solution of wave equation for dynamic response of underground circular lining tunnels subjected to incident plane P waves is presented by Fourier-Bessel series expansion method in this paper. The deformation and stress fields of the whole medium of surrounding rock and tunnel were obtained by solving the equations of seismic wave propagation in an elastic half space. Based on the assumption of a large circular arc, a series of solutions for dynamic stress were deduced by using a wave function expansion approach for a circular lining tunnel in an elastic half space rock medium subjected to incident plane P waves. Then, the dynamic response of the circular lining tunnel was obtained by solving a series of algebraic equations after imposing its boundary conditions for displacement and stress of the circular lining tunnel. The effects of different factors on circular lining rock tunnels, including incident frequency, incident angle, buried depth, rock conditions, and lining stiffness, were derived and several application examples are presented. The results may provide a good reference for studies on the dynamic response and aseismic design of tunnels and underground structures.
Li, Yang; Roberts, Julie; AkhavanAghdam, Zohreh; Hao, Nan
In the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae , the exposure to mating pheromone activates a prototypic mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) cascade and triggers a dose-dependent differentiation response. Whereas a high pheromone dose induces growth arrest and formation of a shmoo-like morphology in yeast cells, lower pheromone doses elicit elongated cell growth. Previous population-level analysis has revealed that the MAPK Fus3 plays an important role in mediating this differentiation switch. To further investigate how Fus3 controls the fate decision process at the single-cell level, we developed a specific translocation-based reporter for monitoring Fus3 activity in individual live cells. Using this reporter, we observed strikingly different dynamic patterns of Fus3 activation in single cells differentiated into distinct fates. Cells committed to growth arrest and shmoo formation exhibited sustained Fus3 activation. In contrast, most cells undergoing elongated growth showed either a delayed gradual increase or pulsatile dynamics of Fus3 activity. Furthermore, we found that chemically perturbing Fus3 dynamics with a specific inhibitor could effectively redirect the mating differentiation, confirming the causative role of Fus3 dynamics in driving cell fate decisions. MAPKs mediate proliferation and differentiation signals in mammals and are therapeutic targets in many cancers. Our results highlight the importance of MAPK dynamics in regulating single-cell responses and open up the possibility that MAPK signaling dynamics could be a pharmacological target in therapeutic interventions. © 2017 by The American Society for Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, Inc.
Filo, Maurice G.
This thesis touches upon several topics in cochlear modeling. Throughout the literature, mathematical models of the cochlea vary according to the degree of biological realism to be incorporated. This thesis casts the cochlear model as a continuous space-time dynamical system using operator language. This framework encompasses a wider class of cochlear models and makes the dynamics more transparent and easier to analyze before applying any numerical method to discretize space. In fact, several numerical methods are investigated to study the computational efficiency of the finite dimensional realizations in space. Furthermore, we study the effects of the active gain perturbations on the stability of the linearized dynamics. The stability analysis is used to explain possible mechanisms underlying spontaneous otoacoustic emissions and tinnitus. Dynamic Mode Decomposition (DMD) is introduced as a useful tool to analyze the response of nonlinear cochlear models. Cochlear response features are illustrated using DMD which has the advantage of explicitly revealing the spatial modes of vibrations occurring in the Basilar Membrane (BM). Finally, we address the dynamic estimation problem of BM vibrations using Extended Kalman Filters (EKF). Due to the limitations of noninvasive sensing schemes, such algorithms are inevitable to estimate the dynamic behavior of a living cochlea.
Kohrs, Christin; Hrabal, David; Angenstein, Nicole; Brechmann, André
System response time research is an important issue in human-computer interactions. Experience with technical devices and general rules of human-human interactions determine the user's expectation, and any delay in system response time may lead to immediate physiological, emotional, and behavioral consequences. We investigated such effects on a trial-by-trial basis during a human-computer interaction by measuring changes in skin conductance (SC), heart rate (HR), and the dynamics of button press responses. We found an increase in SC and a deceleration of HR for all three delayed system response times (0.5, 1, 2 s). Moreover, the data on button press dynamics was highly informative since subjects repeated a button press with more force in response to delayed system response times. Furthermore, the button press dynamics could distinguish between correct and incorrect decisions and may thus even be used to infer the uncertainty of a user's decision. Copyright © 2014 Society for Psychophysiological Research.
Min Jiahua; Liang Xiaoyan; Wang Bin; Wang Linjun; Zhao Yue; Shi Weimin; Xia Yiben
Field ionization gas sensors based on ZnO nanorods (50–300 nm in diameter, and 3–8 μm in length) with and without a buffer layer were fabricated, and the influence of the orientation of nano-ZnO on the ionization response of devices was discussed, including the sensitivity and dynamic response of the ZnO nanorods with preferential orientation. The results indicated that ZnO nanorods as sensor anode could dramatically decrease the breakdown voltage. The XRD and SEM images illustrated that nano-ZnO with a ZnO buffer layer displayed high c-axis orientation, which helps to significantly reduce the breakdown voltage. Device A based on ZnO nanorods with a ZnO buffer layer could distinguish toluene and acetone. The dynamic responses of device A to the NO x compounds presented the sensitivity of 0.045 ± 0.007 ppm/pA and the response speed within 17–40 s, and indicated a linear relationship between NO x concentration and current response at low NO x concentrations. In addition, the dynamic responses to benzene, isopropyl alcohol, ethanol, and methanol reveals that the device has higher sensitivity to gas with larger static polarizability and lower ionization energy.
Recent research highlights the multiple steps to preparing and injecting drugs and the resultant viral threats faced by drug users. This research suggests that more sensitive measurement of injection drug HIV risk behavior is required. In addition, growing evidence suggests there are gender differences in injection risk behavior. However, the potential for differential item functioning between genders has not been explored. To explore item response theory as an improved measurement modeling technique that provides empirically justified scaling of injection risk behavior and to examine for potential gender-based differential item functioning. Data is used from three studies in the National Institute on Drug Abuse's Criminal Justice Drug Abuse Treatment Studies. A two-parameter item response theory model was used to scale injection risk behavior and logistic regression was used to examine for differential item functioning. Item fit statistics suggest that item response theory can be used to scale injection risk behavior and these models can provide more sensitive estimates of risk behavior. Additionally, gender-based differential item functioning is present in the current data. Improved measurement of injection risk behavior using item response theory should be encouraged as these models provide increased congruence between construct measurement and the complexity of injection-related HIV risk. Suggestions are made to further improve injection risk behavior measurement. Furthermore, results suggest direct comparisons of composite scores between males and females may be misleading and future work should account for differential item functioning before comparing levels of injection risk behavior.
Full Text Available The Molecular Electric Transducer (MET, widely applied for vibration measurement, has excellent sensitivity and dynamic response at low frequencies. The elastic membrane in the MET is a significant factor with an obvious effect on the performance of the MET in the low frequency domain and is the focus of this paper. In simulation experiments, the elastic membrane and the reaction cavity of the MET were analysed in a model based on the multiphysics finite element method. Meanwhile, the effects caused by the elastic membrane elements are verified in this paper. With the numerical simulation and practical experiments, a suitable elastic membrane can be designed for different cavity structures. Thus, the MET can exhibit the best dynamic response characteristics to measure the vibration signals. With the new method presented in this paper, it is possible to develop and optimize the characteristics of the MET effectively, and the dynamic characteristics of the MET can be improved in a thorough and systematic manner.
Paulo Marcelo Vieira Ribeiro
Full Text Available Abstract This paper presents a review of current techniques employed for dynamic analysis of concrete gravity dams under seismic action. Traditional procedures applied in design bureaus, such as the Pseudo-Static method, often neglect structural dynamic properties, as well as ground amplification effects. A practical alternative arises with the Pseudo-Dynamic method, which considers a simplified spectrum response in the fundamental mode. The authors propose a self-contained development and detailed examples of this latter method, including a comparison with finite element models using transient response of fluid-structure systems. It is verified that application of the traditional procedure should be done carefully and limited to extremely rigid dams. On the other hand, the proposed development is straightforward and in agreement with finite element results for general cases where dam flexibility plays an important role.
Na, Xie; Ning, Zhang; Rong-Qing, Xu
A test device is developed for studying the dynamic process of an electrowetting liquid lens. By analyzing the light signals through the liquid lens, the dynamical properties of the lens are investigated. In our experiment, three types of pulse, i.e., sine, bipolar pulse, and single pulse signals, are employed to drive the liquid lens, and the dynamic characteristics of the lens are subsequently analyzed. The results show that the positive and negative polarities of the driving voltage can cause a significant difference in the response of the liquid lens; meanwhile, the lens’s response to the negative polarity of the driving voltage is clearer. We use the theory of charge restraint to explain this phenomenon, and it is concluded that the negative ions are more easily restrained by a dielectric layer. This work gives direct guidance for practical applications based on an electrowetting liquid lens.
Halbritter, A.L.; Koishi, N.; Stukart, R.N.L.
To consider the influence of the foundation on the structural dynamic analysis, it is usual to represent the foundation stiffness by springs and the damping by snubbers, in the structural model. The stiffness and the damping values of the foundation can be determined by approximate methods based on simplifying assumptions, using, for example, the formula derived from the half space theory or numerical methods. The foundation stiffness has a great influence on the dynamic characteristics of the structure (eigenvalues and eigenvectors), and together with the damping influence the structural dynamic response. In this paper the influence of the foundation stiffness on the floor response spectra of the reactor building of a NPP of 1300 MW PWR of KWU type is studied. (Author) [pt
Liu, Xiangdong; Li, Qingze; Pan, Jianxin
Modern medical studies show that chemotherapy can help most cancer patients, especially for those diagnosed early, to stabilize their disease conditions from months to years, which means the population of tumor cells remained nearly unchanged in quite a long time after fighting against immune system and drugs. In order to better understand the dynamics of tumor-immune responses under chemotherapy, deterministic and stochastic differential equation models are constructed to characterize the dynamical change of tumor cells and immune cells in this paper. The basic dynamical properties, such as boundedness, existence and stability of equilibrium points, are investigated in the deterministic model. Extended stochastic models include stochastic differential equations (SDEs) model and continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) model, which accounts for the variability in cellular reproduction, growth and death, interspecific competitions, and immune response to chemotherapy. The CTMC model is harnessed to estimate the extinction probability of tumor cells. Numerical simulations are performed, which confirms the obtained theoretical results.
A flooring-system, e.g. a floor in a building, is excited dynamically when a person walks across the floor, and resonant excitation might bring structural vibrations to unacceptable levels. Stationary (non-moving) crowds of people might be present on the same floor and they will sense the floor...... vibrations, but they will also interact dynamically with the floor in a passive sense, thus altering the dynamic system excited to vibration by the walking person. Consequently, the vibration level of the floor is likely to depend on the presence and size of the stationary crowd. It is also known...... that different techniques (different parameters calculated from structural response time series) are proposed for assessing floor serviceability. The paper looks into the influence of the stationary crowd of people on the floor response to walking excitation and into the influence of the crowd on different...
Bielor, E.; Brettschuh, W.; Krutzik, N.J.; Tropp, R.
Based on the conceptual design documentation of the SWR 1000 reactor building as well as specified representative seismological, and soil-dynamic input data, corresponding to prospective sites as a basis, the dynamic characteristics, as well as the in-structure dynamic response of the coupled vibrating structures have been elaborated. The structural design analysis was based on a 3-dimensional mathematical model of the building in which all details of the internal structures as well as the containment including the water in the pools were represented adequately. In order to demonstrate the influence of the soil-structure interaction effects on the dynamic response results, the soil was represented by two different assumptions. At first, considering the state of the art procedures, assuming frequency independent soil capabilities (equivalent stiffnesses and damping values), time domain calculations were carried out. In the second step, based on the frequency-dependency of the soil capabilities, frequency domain calculations were performed. The structural responses obtained by means of both procedures and the same mathematical model of the structures were evaluated and compared. The suitability of the preliminary design concept are discussed and the structural response results obtained on the basis of the bearing capacity and the stresses in the characteristic regions of the structure
Yiqi Luo; Jerry Melillo; Shuli Niu; Claus Beier; James S. Clark; Aime E.T. Classen; Eric Dividson; Jeffrey S. Dukes; R. Dave Evans; Christopher B. Field; Claudia I. Czimczik; Michael Keller; Bruce A. Kimball; Lara M. Kueppers; Richard J. Norby; Shannon L. Pelini; Elise Pendall; Edward Rastetter; Johan Six; Melinda Smith; Mark G. Tjoelker; Margaret S. Torn
Many serious ecosystem consequences of climate change will take decades or even centuries to emerge. Long-term ecological responses to global change are strongly regulated by slow processes, such as changes in species composition, carbon dynamics in soil and by long-lived plants, and accumulation of nutrient capitals. Understanding and predicting these processes...
Grigorenko, Elena L.
This article compares and contrasts the main features of dynamic testing and assessment (DT/A) and response to intervention (RTI). The comparison is carried out along the following lines: (a) historical and empirical roots of both concepts, (b) premises underlying DT/A and RTI, (c) terms used in these concepts, (d) use of these concepts, (e)…
Nunez, Valerie; Shapley, Robert M; Gordon, James
The main finding of this paper is that the human visual cortex responds in a very nonlinear manner to the color contrast of pure color patterns. We examined human cortical responses to color checkerboard patterns at many color contrasts, measuring the chromatic visual evoked potential (cVEP) with a dense electrode array. Cortical topography of the cVEPs showed that they were localized near the posterior electrode at position Oz, indicating that the primary cortex (V1) was the major source of responses. The choice of fine spatial patterns as stimuli caused the cVEP response to be driven by double-opponent neurons in V1. The cVEP waveform revealed nonlinear color signal processing in the V1 cortex. The cVEP time-to-peak decreased and the waveform's shape was markedly narrower with increasing cone contrast. Comparison of the linear dynamics of retinal and lateral geniculate nucleus responses with the nonlinear dynamics of the cortical cVEP indicated that the nonlinear dynamics originated in the V1 cortex. The nature of the nonlinearity is a kind of automatic gain control that adjusts cortical dynamics to be faster when color contrast is greater.
Full Text Available Reviewed: Climate Change, Glacier Response, and Vegetation Dynamics in the Himalaya: Contributions Toward Future Earth Initiatives. Edited by R. B. Singh, Udo Schickhoff, and Suraj Mal. Cham, Switzerland: Springer, 2016. xvi + 399 pp. Hardcover: US$ 179.00, ISBN 978-3-319-28975-5. E-book: US$ 139.00, ISBN 978-3-319-28977-9.
MacDougall, P.A.; Kok, J.K.; Warmer, C.; Roossien, B.
Supply and demand response is a untapped resource in the current electrical system. However little work has been done to investigate the dynamics of utilizing such flexibility as well as the potential effects it could have on the infrastructure. This paper provides a starting point to seeing the
Allen, Benjamin; Sokol, Benjamin; Mukhopadhyay, Shomeek; Maharjan, Rijan; Brown, Eric
We experimentally characterize the structure of concentrated suspensions of cornstarch and water in response to impact. Using surface imaging and particle tracking at the boundary opposite the impactor, we observed that a visible structure and particle flow at the boundary occur with a delay after impact. We show the delay time is about the same time as the strong stress response, confirming that the strong stress response results from deformation of the dynamically jammed structure once it spans between the impactor and a solid boundary. A characterization of this strong stress response is reported in a companion paper [Maharjan, Mukhopadhyay, Allen, Storz, and Brown, Phys. Rev. E 97, 052602 (2018), 10.1103/PhysRevE.97.052602]. We observed particle flow in the outer part of the dynamically jammed region at the bottom boundary, with a net transverse displacement of up to about 5% of the impactor displacement, indicating shear at the boundary. Direct imaging of the surface of the outer part of the dynamically jammed region reveals a change in surface structure that appears the same as the result of dilation in other cornstarch suspensions. Imaging also reveals cracks, like a brittle solid. These observations suggest the dynamically jammed structure can temporarily support stress according to an effective modulus, like a soil or dense granular material, along a network of frictional contacts between the impactor and solid boundary.
Eriksen, Janus J; Sauer, Stephan P A; Mikkelsen, Kurt V; Jensen, Hans J Aa; Kongsted, Jacob
We investigate the effect of including a dynamic reaction field at the lowest possible ab inito wave function level of theory, namely the Hartree-Fock (HF) self-consistent field level within the polarizable embedding (PE) formalism. We formulate HF based PE within the linear response theory picture leading to the PE-random-phase approximation (PE-RPA) and bridge the expressions to a second-order polarization propagator approximation (SOPPA) frame such that dynamic reaction field contributions are included at the RPA level in addition to the static response described at the SOPPA level but with HF induced dipole moments. We conduct calculations on para-nitro-aniline and para-nitro-phenolate using said model in addition to dynamic PE-RPA and PE-CAM-B3LYP. We compare the results to recently published PE-CCSD data and demonstrate how the cost effective SOPPA-based model successfully recovers a great portion of the inherent PE-RPA error when the observable is the solvatochromic shift. We furthermore demonstrate that whenever the change in density resulting from the ground state-excited state electronic transition in the solute is not associated with a significant change in the electric field, dynamic response contributions formulated at the HF level of theory manage to capture the majority of the system response originating from derivative densities. Copyright © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
de Waal, Eric E. C.; Rex, Steffen; Kruitwagen, Cas L. J. J.; Kalkman, Cor J.; Buhre, Wolfgang F.
Objective: Dynamic preload indicators like pulse pressure variation (PPV) and stroke volume variation (SVV) are increasingly being used for optimizing cardiac preload since they have been demonstrated to predict fluid responsiveness in a variety of perioperative settings. However, in open-chest
Poehner, Matthew E.; Zhang, Jie; Lu, Xiaofei
Dynamic assessment (DA) derives from the sociocultural theory of mind as elaborated by Russian psychologist L. S. Vygotsky. By offering mediation when individuals experience difficulties and carefully tracing their responsiveness, Vygotsky (1998) proposed that diagnoses may uncover abilities that have fully formed as well as those still in the…
山本, 行雄; 山田, 一
A linear pulse motor can translate digital signals into linear positions without a gear system. It is important to predict a dynamic response in order to the motor that has the good performance. In this report the maximum pulse rate and the maximum speed on the linear pulse motor are obtained by using the sampling theory.
Hildebrandt, Thomas; Mukkamala, Raghava Rao; Slaats, Tijs
We conservatively extend the declarative Dynamic Condition Response (DCR) Graph process model, introduced in the PhD thesis of the second author, to allow for discrete time deadlines. We prove that safety and liveness properties can be verified by mapping finite timed DCR Graphs to finite state...
Heuck, Emil; Hildebrandt, Thomas; Kiærulff Lerche, Rasmus
We describe how the declarative Dynamic Condition Response (DCR) Graphs proces notation can be used to digitalise the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) and make a first evaluation to what extend the formalisation and associated tool for end-user modelling and simulation can be used to cla...
Purpose: This study aims to analyze a school's crisis management and explore emerging aspects of its response to a school crisis. Traditional linear modes of analysis often fail to address complex crisis situations. The present study applied a dynamic crisis life cycle model that draws on chaos and complexity theory to a crisis management case,…
South African Journal for Research in Sport, Physical Education and Recreation ... The aim of the study was to evaluate hormonal responses of serum cortisol, growth hormone (GH), testesterone and insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1) levels during dynamic and static stress exercises in 20 male volunteer student athletes.
Michael E. Akresh; David I. King; Robert T. Brooks
Shrubland birds have experienced widespread declines in the eastern United States. Habitat for shrubland birds is typically dynamic, in which available habitat changes temporally and spatially in response to disturbance and succession. Despite widespread concerns among conservationists about shrubland birds, much is still poorly understood regarding fundamental...
Melikov, A K; Popiolek, Z
The objective of this study is to identify the dynamic response of the SwemaAir 300 thermal anemometer to downward airflow with different amplitude and frequency of the velocity fluctuations and changing direction. An important aim is to find to what extend the accuracy of the velocity measurements is effected at the above described conditions. (au)
Buus, Simon; Grau, Cai; Munk, Ole Lajord; Rodell, Anders; Jensen, Kenneth; Mouridsen, Kim; Keiding, Susanne
Background and Purpose: Previously, we showed that the net metabolic clearance of 11 C-methionine of the parotid gland, K, calculated from dynamic 11 C-methionine PET, can be used as a measure of parotid gland function. The aim of this study was to investigate by dynamic 11 C-methionine PET the individual radiation dose response relationship of parotid glands in head and neck cancer patients. Patients and methods: Twelve head and neck cancer patients were examined by dynamic 11 C-methionine PET after radiotherapy. Parametric images of K were generated, co-registered and compared voxel-by-voxel with the 3D radiation dose plan within the parotid gland to assess the individual radiation dose-function relationship. Results: In each patient, voxel-values of K decreased with increasing radiation dose. Population based analysis showed a sigmoid dose response relationship of parotid gland, from which we estimated a threshold radiation dose of 16 Gy and a mean TD 5 of 30 Gy. TD 5 ranged from 7 to 50 Gy in the group of patients. Conclusions: Individual radiation dose response of parotid glands can be measured by dynamic 11 C-methionine PET. The dose response analysis revealed a sigmoid relationship, a threshold radiation dose of 16 Gy, and a mean TD 5 of 30 Gy
Kim, Junkyeong; Lee, Chaggil; Park, Seunghee
Concrete is one of the most common materials used to construct a variety of civil infrastructures. However, since concrete might be susceptible to brittle fracture, it is essential to confirm the strength of concrete at the early-age stage of the curing process to prevent unexpected collapse. To address this issue, this study proposes a novel method to estimate the early-age strength of concrete, by integrating an artificial neural network algorithm with a dynamic response measurement of the concrete material. The dynamic response signals of the concrete, including both electromechanical impedances and guided ultrasonic waves, are obtained from an embedded piezoelectric sensor module. The cross-correlation coefficient of the electromechanical impedance signals and the amplitude of the guided ultrasonic wave signals are selected to quantify the variation in dynamic responses according to the strength of the concrete. Furthermore, an artificial neural network algorithm is used to verify a relationship between the variation in dynamic response signals and concrete strength. The results of an experimental study confirm that the proposed approach can be effectively applied to estimate the strength of concrete material from the early-age stage of the curing process.
Petrone, Daniele; Latora, Vito
The interconnectedness of financial institutions affects instability and credit crises. To quantify systemic risk we introduce here the PD model, a dynamic model that combines credit risk techniques with a contagion mechanism on the network of exposures among banks. A potential loss distribution is obtained through a multi-period Monte Carlo simulation that considers the probability of default (PD) of the banks and their tendency of defaulting in the same time interval. A contagion process increases the PD of banks exposed toward distressed counterparties. The systemic risk is measured by statistics of the loss distribution, while the contribution of each node is quantified by the new measures PDRank and PDImpact. We illustrate how the model works on the network of the European Global Systemically Important Banks. For a certain range of the banks' capital and of their assets volatility, our results reveal the emergence of a strong contagion regime where lower default correlation between banks corresponds to higher losses. This is the opposite of the diversification benefits postulated by standard credit risk models used by banks and regulators who could therefore underestimate the capital needed to overcome a period of crisis, thereby contributing to the financial system instability.
Xie Yong; Xu Jianxue; Hu Sanjue; Kang Yanmei; Yang Hongjun; Duan Yubin
An interesting phenomenon that aperiodic firing neurons have a higher sensitivity to drugs than periodic firing neurons have been reported for the chronically compressed dorsal root ganglion neurons in rats. In this study, the dynamical mechanisms for such a phenomenon are uncovered from the viewpoint of dynamical systems theory. We use the Rose-Hindmarsh neuron model to illustrate our opinions. Periodic orbit theory is introduced to characterize the dynamical behavior of aperiodic firing neurons. It is considered that bifurcations, crises and sensitive dependence of chaotic motions on control parameters can be the underlying mechanisms. And then, a similar analysis is applied to the modified Chay model describing the firing behavior of pancreatic beta cells. The same dynamical mechanisms can be obtained underlying that aperiodic firing cells are more sensitive to external stimulation than periodic firing ones. As a result, we conjecture that sensitive response of aperiodic firing cells to external stimulation is a universal property of excitable cells
Zheng, Z.C.; Xie, G.; Du, Q.H.
Because of the existence of nonlinear characteristics in practical engineering structures, such as large steam turbine-foundation system and offshore platform, it is necessary to predict nonlinear dynamic responses for these very large and complex structural systems subjected extreme load. Due to the limited storage and high executing cost of computers, there are still some difficulties in the analysis for such systems although the traditional finite element methods provide basic available methods to the problems. The dynamic substructure methods, which were developed as a branch of general structural dynamics in the past more than 20 years and have been widely used from aircraft, space vehicles to other mechanical and civil engineering structures, present a powerful method to the analysis of very large structural systems. The key to success is due to the considerable reduction in the number of degrees of freedom while not changing the physical essence of the problems investigated. The dynamic substructure method has been extended to nonlinear system and applicated to the analysis of nonlinear dynamic response of an offshore platform by Z.C. Zheng, et al. (1983, 1985a, b, c). In this paper, the method is presented to analyze dynamic responses of the systems contained intrinsic nonlinearities and with nonlinear attachments and nonlinear supports of nuclear structural systems. The efficiency of the method becomes more clear for nonlinear dynamic problems due to the adoption of iterating processes. For simplicity, the analysis procedure is demonstrated briefly. The generalized substructure method of nonlinear systems is similar to linear systems, only the nonlinear terms are treated as pseudo-forces. Interface coordinates are classified into two categories, the connecting interface coordinates which connect with each other directly in the global system and the linking interface coordinates which link to each other through attachments. (orig./GL)
Wang, Siyuan; Wang, Xiaoyue; Chen, Guangsheng; Yang, Qichun; Wang, Bin; Ma, Yuanxu; Shen, Ming
Snow cover dynamics are considered to play a key role on spring phenological shifts in the high-latitude, so investigating responses of spring phenology to snow cover dynamics is becoming an increasingly important way to identify and predict global ecosystem dynamics. In this study, we quantified the temporal trends and spatial variations of spring phenology and snow cover across the Tibetan Plateau by calibrating and analyzing time series of the NOAA AVHRR-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) during 1983-2012. We also examined how snow cover dynamics affect the spatio-temporal pattern of spring alpine vegetation phenology over the plateau. Our results indicated that 52.21% of the plateau experienced a significant advancing trend in the beginning of vegetation growing season (BGS) and 34.30% exhibited a delaying trend. Accordingly, the snow cover duration days (SCD) and snow cover melt date (SCM) showed similar patterns with a decreasing trend in the west and an increasing trend in the southeast, but the start date of snow cover (SCS) showed an opposite pattern. Meanwhile, the spatial patterns of the BGS, SCD, SCS and SCM varied in accordance with the gradients of temperature, precipitation and topography across the plateau. The response relationship of spring phenology to snow cover dynamics varied within different climate, terrain and alpine plant community zones, and the spatio-temporal response patterns were primarily controlled by the long-term local heat-water conditions and topographic conditions. Moreover, temperature and precipitation played a profound impact on diverse responses of spring phenology to snow cover dynamics. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Chapman, S. C.; Dods, J.; Gjerloev, J. W.
Observations of how the solar wind interacts with earth's magnetosphere, and its dynamical response, are increasingly becoming a data analytics challenge. Constellations of satellites observe the solar corona, the upstream solar wind and throughout earth's magnetosphere. These data are multipoint in space and extended in time, so in principle are ideal for study using dynamical networks to characterize the full time evolving spatial pattern. We focus here on analysis of data from the full set of 100+ auroral ground based magnetometer stations that have been collated by SuperMAG. Spatio-temporal patterns of correlation between the magnetometer time series can be used to form a dynamical network . The properties of the network can then be captured by (time dependent) network parameters. This offers the possibility of characterizing detailed spatio-temporal pattern by a few parameters, so that many events can then be compared  with each other. Whilst networks are in widespread use in the data analytics of societal and commercial data, there are additional challenges in their application to physical timeseries. Determining whether two nodes (here, ground based magnetometer stations) are connected in a network (seeing the same dynamics) requires normalization w.r.t. the detailed sensitivities and dynamical responses of specific observing stations and seasonal conductivity variations and we have developed methods to achieve this dynamical normalization. The detailed properties of the network capture time dependent spatial correlation in the magnetometer responses and we will show how this can be used to infer a transient current system response to magnetospheric activity. [l] Dods et al, J. Geophys. Res 120, doi:10.1002/2015JA02 (2015).  Dods et al, J. Geophys. Res. 122, doi:10.1002/2016JA02 (2017).
Michael P. Dooley
Empirical tests incorporating measures of capital flight from developing countries that are substantially different from those used in existing studies suggest that capital flight can be explained by differences in risk perceived by residents and nonresidents in holding claims on residents of the countries studied. To the extent that capital flight reflects differences among holders in expected yields on claims on residents of capital-flight countries, it may not be related to conventional de...
Wei, Xiaojun; Živanović, Stana
The aim of this paper is to propose a novel theoretical framework for dynamic identification in a structure occupied by a single human. The framework enables the prediction of the dynamics of the human-structure system from the known properties of the individual system components, the identification of human body dynamics from the known dynamics of the empty structure and the human-structure system and the identification of the properties of the structure from the known dynamics of the human and the human-structure system. The novelty of the proposed framework is the provision of closed-form solutions in terms of frequency response functions obtained by curve fitting measured data. The advantages of the framework over existing methods are that there is neither need for nonlinear optimisation nor need for spatial/modal models of the empty structure and the human-structure system. In addition, the second-order perturbation method is employed to quantify the effect of uncertainties in human body dynamics on the dynamic identification of the empty structure and the human-structure system. The explicit formulation makes the method computationally efficient and straightforward to use. A series of numerical examples and experiments are provided to illustrate the working of the method.
Gapko, Petr; Šmíd, Martin
Roč. 62, č. 2 (2012), s. 125-140 ISSN 0015-1920 R&D Projects: GA ČR GD402/09/H045; GA ČR GA402/09/0965 Grant - others:Univerzita Karlova(CZ) GAUK 46108 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : credit risk * probability of default * loss given default * credit loss * credit loss distribution * Basel II Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.340, year: 2012 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2012/E/smid-dynamic multi-factor credit risk model with fat-tailed factors.pdf
Ph.D.Student Rodica Ianole
Full Text Available Following the Black Swan logic, it often happens that what we do not know becomes more relevant that what we (believe to know. The management of extreme risks falls under this paradigm in the sense that it cannot be limited to a static approach based only on objective and easily quantifiable variables. Making appeal to the operational tools developed primarily for the insurance industry, the present paper aims to investigate how dynamic financial analysis (DFA can be used within the framework of extreme risk events.
P.P.M.A.R. Heugens (Pursey); N.A. Dentchev (Nikolay)
textabstractOrganizations are exposed to increasing pressures from their constituents to integrate corporate social responsibility (CSR) principles into their ongoing business practices. But accepting new and potentially open-ended commitments is not a harmless exercise, and companies may well
Lee, Chang Ju [Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Kang, Kyung Min [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)
It is true that a national policy should be based on public confidence, analyzing their recognition and attitude on life safety, since they have very special risk perception characteristics. For achieving effective public consensus regarding a national policy such as nuclear power, we have to utilize a risk communication (hereafter, calls RiCom) process. However, domestic research models on RiCom process do not provide a practical guideline, because most of them are still superficial and stick on an administrative aspect. Also, most of current models have no experience in terms of verification and validation for effective applications to diverse stake holders. This study focuses on public's dynamic mechanism through the modeling on system dynamics, basically utilizing casual loop diagram (CLD) and stock flow diagram (SFD), which regards as a critical technique for decision making in many industrial RiCom models.
Lee, Chang Ju; Kang, Kyung Min
It is true that a national policy should be based on public confidence, analyzing their recognition and attitude on life safety, since they have very special risk perception characteristics. For achieving effective public consensus regarding a national policy such as nuclear power, we have to utilize a risk communication (hereafter, calls RiCom) process. However, domestic research models on RiCom process do not provide a practical guideline, because most of them are still superficial and stick on an administrative aspect. Also, most of current models have no experience in terms of verification and validation for effective applications to diverse stake holders. This study focuses on public's dynamic mechanism through the modeling on system dynamics, basically utilizing casual loop diagram (CLD) and stock flow diagram (SFD), which regards as a critical technique for decision making in many industrial RiCom models
Wolfgang Karl Härdle
Full Text Available Weather derivatives are contingent claims with payoff based on a pre-specified weather index. Firms exposed to weather risk can transfer it to financial markets via weather derivatives. We develop a utility-based model for pricing baskets of weather derivatives under default risk on the issuer side in over-the-counter markets. In our model, agents maximise the expected utility of their terminal wealth, while they dynamically rebalance their weather portfolios over a finite investment horizon. Using dynamic programming approach, we obtain semi-closed forms for the equilibrium prices of weather derivatives and for the optimal strategies of the agents. We give an example on how to price rainfall derivatives on selected stations in China in the universe of a financial investor and a weather exposed crop insurer.
Sepúlveda Estay, Daniel Alberto; Khan, Omera
and swiftness of the supply chain response (resilience). However, current resilience frameworks are qualitative, do not address evolution over time as a relevant aspect, and thus do not provide indications on how to design a resilient response. This paper contributes to closing this gap by developing a system...... dynamics model from an actual case of resilient response after a cyber-attack. Both casespecific and generic structures are extracted from the case data analysis, and a reaction mechanism is proposed that results in the observed behavior. The identification of these structures should eventually aid...
Full Text Available In this paper, logical analysis of data (LAD is used to predict the seismic response of building structures employing the captured dynamic responses. In order to prepare the data, computational simulations using a single degree of freedom (SDOF building model under different ground motion records are carried out. The selected excitation records are real and of different peak ground accelerations (PGA. The sensitivity of the seismic response in terms of displacements of floors to the variation in earthquake characteristics, such as soil class, characteristic period, and time step of records, peak ground displacement, and peak ground velocity, have also been considered. The dynamic equation of motion describing the building model and the applied earthquake load are presented and solved incrementally using the Runge-Kutta method. LAD then finds the characteristic patterns which lead to forecast the seismic response of building structures. The accuracy of LAD is compared to that of an artificial neural network (ANN, since the latter is the most known machine learning technique. Based on the conducted study, the proposed LAD model has been proven to be an efficient technique to learn, simulate, and blindly predict the dynamic response behaviour of building structures subjected to earthquake loads.
Mol, Antonio C. de A.; Martinez, Aquilino S.; Schirru, Roberto
This work presents an approach for neural network based transient identification which allows either dynamic identification or a 'don't know' response. The approach uses two 'jump' multilayer neural networks (NN) trained with the backpropagation algorithm. The 'jump' network is used because it is useful to dealing with very complex patterns, which is the case of the space of the state variables during some abnormal events. The first one is responsible for the dynamic identification. This NN uses, as input, a short set (in a moving time window) of recent measurements of each variable avoiding the necessity of using starting events. The other one is used to validate the instantaneous identification (from the first net) through the validation of each variable. This net is responsible for allowing the system to provide a 'don't know' response. In order to validate the method, a Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) transient identification problem comprising 15 postulated accidents, simulated for a pressurized water reactor (PWR), was proposed in the validation process it has been considered noisy data in order to evaluate the method robustness. Obtained results reveal the ability of the method in dealing with both dynamic identification of transients and correct 'don't know' response. Another important point studied in this work is that the system has shown to be independent of a trigger signal which indicates the beginning of the transient, thus making it robust in relation to this limitation
Lowe, B M; Skylaris, C-K; Green, N G; Shibuta, Y; Sakata, T
The silica-water interface is critical to many modern technologies in chemical engineering and biosensing. One technology used commonly in biosensors, the potentiometric sensor, operates by measuring the changes in electric potential due to changes in the interfacial electric field. Predictive modelling of this response caused by surface binding of biomolecules remains highly challenging. In this work, through the most extensive molecular dynamics simulation of the silica-water interfacial potential and electric field to date, we report a novel prediction and explanation of the effects of nano-morphology on sensor response. Amorphous silica demonstrated a larger potentiometric response than an equivalent crystalline silica model due to increased sodium adsorption, in agreement with experiments showing improved sensor response with nano-texturing. We provide proof-of-concept that molecular dynamics can be used as a complementary tool for potentiometric biosensor response prediction. Effects that are conventionally neglected, such as surface morphology, water polarisation, biomolecule dynamics and finite-size effects, are explicitly modelled.
Nassim N. Taleb
Proof that under simple assumptions, such as constraints of Put-Call Parity, the probability measure for the valuation of a European option has the mean derived from the forward price which can, but does not have to be the risk-neutral one, under any general probability distribution, bypassing the Black-Scholes-Merton dynamic hedging argument, and without the requirement of complete markets and other strong assumptions. We confirm that the heuristics used by traders for centuries are both mor...
Zheng, Yexin; Wang, Shi-Qing; Tsige, Mesfin
The Kremer-Grest bead-spring model has been the standard model in molecular dynamics simulation of polymer glasses. However, due to current computational limitations in accessing relevant time scales in polymer glasses in a reasonable amount of CPU time, simulation of mechanical response of polymer glasses in molecular dynamic simulations requires a much higher quenching rate and deformation rate than used in experiments. Despite several orders of magnitude difference in time scale between simulation and experiment, previous studies have shown that simulations can produce meaningful results that can be directly compared with experimental results. In this work we show that by tuning the quenching rate and deformation rate relative to the segmental relaxation times, a reasonable mechanical response shows up in the glassy state. Specifically, we show a younger glass prepared with a faster quenching rate shows glassy responses only when the imposed deformation rate is proportionally higher. the National Science Foundation (DMR-1444859 and DMR-1609977).
Du, Yu-Fan; He, Xin; Lan, Ning
A closed-loop virtual arm (VA) model has been developed in SIMULINK environment by adding spinal reflex circuits and propriospinal neural networks to the open-loop VA model developed in early study . An improved virtual muscle model (VM4.0) is used to speed up simulation and to generate more precise recruitment of muscle force at low levels of muscle activation. Time delays in the reflex loops are determined by their synaptic connections and afferent transmission back to the spinal cord. Reflex gains are properly selected so that closed-loop responses are stable. With the closed-loop VA model, we are developing an approach to evaluate system behaviors by dynamic simulation of perturbation responses. Joint stiffness is calculated based on simulated perturbation responses by a least-squares algorithm in MATLAB. This method of dynamic simulation will be essential for further evaluation of feedforward and reflex control of arm movement and position.
Zhuang, Qian; Di, Zengru; Wu, Jinshan
Using the Logit quantal response form as the response function in each step, the original definition of static quantal response equilibrium (QRE) is extended into an iterative evolution process. QREs remain as the fixed points of the dynamic process. However, depending on whether such fixed points are the long-term solutions of the dynamic process, they can be classified into stable (SQREs) and unstable (USQREs) equilibriums. This extension resembles the extension from static Nash equilibriums (NEs) to evolutionary stable solutions in the framework of evolutionary game theory. The relation between SQREs and other solution concepts of games, including NEs and QREs, is discussed. Using experimental data from other published papers, we perform a preliminary comparison between SQREs, NEs, QREs and the observed behavioral outcomes of those experiments. For certain games, we determine that SQREs have better predictive power than QREs and NEs. PMID:25157502
Full Text Available Recent uncertainties in financial markets and several company bankruptcies reinforce the relationship between risk and return as a cornerstone in corporate finance. Enterprise risk management theories offer unambiguous predictions about the relation between firm value and risk. The main aim of the paper is to provide new empirical evidence on the risk as a driver for company value creation process for European developed countries over the period 2001-2011. Using dynamic panel data model with two-step GMM-SYS method and enterprise multiple as a new approach to measure for firm value the results suggest that firm value is negatively related with risk, which is consistent with Bowman’s risk and return paradox. The negative relation between firm value and risk is robust through alternative measures, but it does not hold for companies from civil law countries. Additional control variables included in the model are significant and suggest that both growth and capital structure are negatively related with firm value.
Full Text Available The research is devoted to the study of the features and trends of the development of socially responsible investment in Ukraine. The present study shows that under the current conditions of economic development and political situation in different countries, socially responsible investment of various projects and programs of social significance becomes increasingly important and relevant. Today we observe the appearance of the new forms of implementation of socially responsible business activities, among which the impact-investment and financing of socially significant projects on the principles of venture philanthropy are becoming more and more popular. It is determined that IMP involves, firstly, profit making, and secondly, it expects positive social changes, in particular, in support of sustainable agricultural development, ensuring availability of medical services, affordability of housing, development of environmentally friendly technologies. It was found out that the goal of venture philanthropy is primarily to create a social effect, and, eventually, to generate profits that may appear in the process of implementing the project or the activities of the organization. In the vast majority of cases, this type of financing takes place through direct investment or fixed income securities.
Welstead, Jason; Crouse, Gilbert L., Jr.
Empirical sizing guidelines such as tail volume coefficients have long been used in the early aircraft design phases for sizing stabilizers, resulting in conservatively stable aircraft. While successful, this results in increased empty weight, reduced performance, and greater procurement and operational cost relative to an aircraft with optimally sized surfaces. Including flight dynamics in the conceptual design process allows the design to move away from empirical methods while implementing modern control techniques. A challenge of flight dynamics and control is the numerous design variables, which are changing fluidly throughout the conceptual design process, required to evaluate the system response to some disturbance. This research focuses on addressing that challenge not by implementing higher order tools, such as computational fluid dynamics, but instead by linking the lower order tools typically used within the conceptual design process so each discipline feeds into the other. In thisresearch, flight dynamics and control was incorporated into the conceptual design process along with the traditional disciplines of vehicle sizing, weight estimation, aerodynamics, and performance. For the controller, a linear quadratic regulator structure with constant gains has been specified to reduce the user input. Coupling all the disciplines in the conceptual design phase allows the aircraft designer to explore larger design spaces where stabilizers are sized according to dynamic response constraints rather than historical static margin and volume coefficient guidelines.
BYSTANDER EFFECTS, GENOMIC INSTABILITY, ADAPTIVE RESPONSE AND CANCER RISK ASSESSMENT FOR RADIATION AND CHEMICAL EXPOSURESR. Julian PrestonEnvironmental Carcinogenesis Division, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, N.C. 27711, USAThere ...
Work-related diseases, injuries, risks and deaths are the issues that have been recently gaining importance especially in developing countries. The ethical dimensions of occupational health and safety have remained as relatively understudied areas. Concepts such as responsibility, consent, autonomy, paternalism, choice, and certain values or justifications that are used in medical ethics and bioethics are also applicable to occupational health and safety. This article examines the ethical issues of responsibility and consent to occupational risk. It will first define the concepts of consent and risk, and then different views on responsibility and consent to risk will be discussed. The article will also examine the responsibility of the society and government regarding these concepts.
Guo, Ning; Zhang, Fan; Zhang, Xiaomeng; Guo, Jinxia; Lang, Lixin; Kiesewetter, Dale O; Niu, Gang; Li, Quanzheng; Chen, Xiaoyuan
The purpose of this study is to evaluate the early response of tumors to a vascular-disrupting agent (VDA) VEGF121/recombinant toxin gelonin (rGel) using dynamic [(18)F]FPPRGD2 positron emission tomography (PET) and kinetic parameter estimation. Two tumor xenograft models: U87MG (highly vascularized) and A549 (moderately vascularized), were selected, and both were randomized into treatment and control groups. Sixty-minute dynamic PET scans with [(18)F]FPPRGD2 that targets to integrin αvβ3 were performed at days 0 (baseline), 1, and 3 since VEGF121/rGel treatment started. Dynamic PET-derived binding potential (BPND) and parametric maps were compared with tumor uptake (%ID/g) and the static PET image at 1 h after the tracer administration. The growth of U87MG tumor was obviously delayed upon VEGF121/rGel treatment. A549 tumor was not responsive to the same treatment. BPND of treated U87MG tumors decreased significantly at day 1 (p dynamic PET with [(18)F]FPPRGD2 shows advantages in distinguishing effective from ineffective treatment during the course of VEGF121/rGel therapy at early stage and is therefore more sensitive in assessing therapy response than static PET.
Sendra, H; Murialdo, S; Passoni, L
This proposal deals with the technique for detection of motile response of Pseudomonas aeruginosa using dynamic laser speckle or biospeckle as an alternative method. The study of bacterial displacement plays an essential role in biocatalysts processes and biodegradation. Hence, some biodegrading enzymes are benign catalytic that could be used for the production of industrially useful compounds as well as in wastewater treatments. This work presents an experimental set up and a computational process using frame sequences of dynamic laser speckle as a novel application. The objective was the detection of different levels of motility in bacteria. The encouraging results were achieved through a direct and non invasive observation method of the phenomenon
Full Text Available In this paper, we establish a dynamic game to allocate CSR (Corporate Social Responsibility to the members of a supply chain. We propose a model of a supply chain in a decentralized state which includes a supplier and a manufacturer. For analyzing supply chain performance in decentralized state and the relationships between the members of the supply chain, we formulate a model that crosses through multiperiods with the help of a dynamic discrete Stackelberg game which is made under two different information structures. We obtain an equilibrium point at which both the profits of members and the level of CSR taken up by supply chains are maximized.
Petricoin, Emanuel F; Liotta, Lance A
Proteomics is more than just a list-generating exercise where increases or decreases in protein expression are identified. Proteomic technologies will ultimately characterize information-flow through the protein circuitry that interconnects the extracellular microenvironment to the serum or plasma macroenvironment through intracellular signaling systems and their control of gene transcription. The nature of this information can be a cause or a consequence of disease processes and how patients respond to therapy. Analysis of human cancer as a model for how proteomics can have an impact at the bedside can take advantage of several promising new proteomic technologies. These technologies are being developed for early detection and risk assessment, therapeutic targeting and patient-tailored therapy.
Ono, Masahiro; Kuwata, Yoshiaki
A chance-constrained dynamic programming algorithm was developed that is capable of making optimal sequential decisions within a user-specified risk bound. This work handles stochastic uncertainties over multiple stages in the CEMAT (Combined EDL-Mobility Analyses Tool) framework. It was demonstrated by a simulation of Mars entry, descent, and landing (EDL) using real landscape data obtained from the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter. Although standard dynamic programming (DP) provides a general framework for optimal sequential decisionmaking under uncertainty, it typically achieves risk aversion by imposing an arbitrary penalty on failure states. Such a penalty-based approach cannot explicitly bound the probability of mission failure. A key idea behind the new approach is called risk allocation, which decomposes a joint chance constraint into a set of individual chance constraints and distributes risk over them. The joint chance constraint was reformulated into a constraint on an expectation over a sum of an indicator function, which can be incorporated into the cost function by dualizing the optimization problem. As a result, the chance-constraint optimization problem can be turned into an unconstrained optimization over a Lagrangian, which can be solved efficiently using a standard DP approach.
This article deals with the basic contradictions of risk management and responsibility regarding problem gambling and self-exclusions, and draws special attention to the role knowledge production and science play in the construction and evaluation of gambling risks. This remarkable case of corporate
Cancer risk assessment involves the steps of hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment and risk characterization. The rapid advances in the use of molecular biology approaches has had an impact on all four components, but the greatest overall current...
Gershtein, M.; Fridman, Ya.; Perelmiter, A.
Vibrations of pipelines transporting fluids, gases, and granular materials are excited by the air flow, internal pressure pulsation, or seismic ground motion. The susceptibility of oil and gas pipelines to seismic damage has been demonstrated in earthquakes everywhere around the world. Devices for above-ground pipelines and piping systems vibration suppression with combination of dry friction and viscous energy dissipation are developed by AVIBRA, Shear deformation of viscous-elastic material in these devices occurs prior to interfacial slip. The way to account this phenomenon is to model the damper as an elastic-viscous element in series with an ideal Coulomb dry friction element. The harmonic balance method was applied to obtain an equivalent viscous damping constant for a combined damper. Iteration process was used to predict a dynamic response of a piping system with combined dampers subjected to sinusoidal excitation. Every iteration step was based on ANSYS procedures. Time integration of systems with hysteretic friction models presents computational difficulties. Some examples of dynamic responses of piping systems were analyzed by a time integration procedure for finite-element models. Combined dry friction-viscous dissipation dampers were tested on a piping model under harmonic excitation. It was clarified that combined dampers are very effective to reduce dynamic response. The seismic response of the piping system with combined dampers was calculated using time history finite-element analysis. The excellent effectiveness of AVIBRA combined dampers for aseismic design and retrofitting of pipelines and piping systems was confirmed by the analysis
Miriam V Gutschow
Full Text Available Lipopolysaccharide (LPS, found in the outer membrane of gram-negative bacteria, elicits a strong response from the transcription factor family Nuclear factor (NF-κB via Toll-like receptor (TLR 4. The cellular response to lipopolysaccharide varies depending on the source and preparation of the ligand, however. Our goal was to compare single-cell NF-κB dynamics across multiple sources and concentrations of LPS.Using live-cell fluorescence microscopy, we determined the NF-κB activation dynamics of hundreds of single cells expressing a p65-dsRed fusion protein. We used computational image analysis to measure the nuclear localization of the fusion protein in the cells over time. The concentration range spanned up to nine orders of magnitude for three E. coli LPS preparations. We find that the LPS preparations induce markedly different responses, even accounting for potency differences. We also find that the ability of soluble TNF receptor to affect NF-κB dynamics varies strikingly across the three preparations.Our work strongly suggests that the cellular response to LPS is highly sensitive to the source and preparation of the ligand. We therefore caution that conclusions drawn from experiments using one preparation may not be applicable to LPS in general.
Gregory J. Koop
Full Text Available The history of judgment and decision making is defined by a trend toward increasingly nuanced explanations of the decision making process. Recently, process models have become incredibly sophisticated, yet the tools available to directly test these models have not kept pace. These increasingly complex process models require increasingly complex process data by which they can be adequately tested. We propose a new class of data collection that will facilitate evaluation of sophisticated process models. Tracking mouse paths during a continuous response provides an implicit measure of the growth of preference that produces a choice---rather than the current practice of recording just the button press that indicates that choice itself. Recent research in cognitive science (Spivey and Dale, 2006 has shown that cognitive processing can be revealed in these dynamic motor responses. Unlike current process methodologies, these response dynamics studies can demonstrate continuous competition between choice options and even online preference reversals. Here, in order to demonstrate the mechanics and utility of the methodology, we present an example response dynamics experiment utilizing a common multi-alternative decision task.
Full Text Available This paper proposes an assumption that the fibre is elastic material and polymer matrix is viscoelastic material so that the energy dissipation depends only on the polymer matrix in dynamic response process. The damping force vectors in frequency and time domains, of FRP (Fibre-Reinforced Polymer matrix laminated composite plates, are derived based on this assumption. The governing equations of FRP laminated composite plates are formulated in both frequency and time domains. The direct inversion method and direct time integration method for nonviscously damped systems are employed to solve the governing equations and achieve the dynamic responses in frequency and time domains, respectively. The computational procedure is given in detail. Finally, dynamic responses (frequency responses with nonzero and zero initial conditions, free vibration, forced vibrations with nonzero and zero initial conditions of a FRP laminated composite plate are computed using the proposed methodology. The proposed methodology in this paper is easy to be inserted into the commercial finite element analysis software. The proposed assumption, based on the theory of material mechanics, needs to be further proved by experiment technique in the future.
Full Text Available This paper investigates the effect of CFRP strengthening on dynamic and fatigue responses of composite bridge using finite element program ABAQUS. Dynamic and fatigue responses of composite bridge due to truck load based on AASHTO standard are investigated. Two types of CFRP strengthening techniques, CFRP sheets and CFRP deck, are applied to both the damaged and undamaged bridges. For the case of damaged bridge, two through-thickness crack sizes, 3 mm and 6 mm in depth, are assumed at midspan of the steel girders. Furthermore, effects of the number of steel girders on the dynamic and fatigue responses are also considered. The results show that the maximum responses of composite bridges occur for dual lane cases. By using CFRP as a strengthening material, the maximum stress and deflection of the steel girders reduce and consequently increase the fatigue life of the girders. After introducing initial crack into the steel girders of the composite bridges, the fatigue life of the bridges is dramatically reduced. However, the overall performance of the damaged composite bridge can be improved by using CFRP, albeit with less effectiveness. Therefore, if cracks are found, steel welding must be performed before strengthening the composite bridge by CFRP.
This paper proposes an assumption that the fibre is elastic material and polymer matrix is viscoelastic material so that the energy dissipation depends only on the polymer matrix in dynamic response process. The damping force vectors in frequency and time domains, of FRP (Fibre-Reinforced Polymer matrix) laminated composite plates, are derived based on this assumption. The governing equations of FRP laminated composite plates are formulated in both frequency and time domains. The direct inversion method and direct time integration method for nonviscously damped systems are employed to solve the governing equations and achieve the dynamic responses in frequency and time domains, respectively. The computational procedure is given in detail. Finally, dynamic responses (frequency responses with nonzero and zero initial conditions, free vibration, forced vibrations with nonzero and zero initial conditions) of a FRP laminated composite plate are computed using the proposed methodology. The proposed methodology in this paper is easy to be inserted into the commercial finite element analysis software. The proposed assumption, based on the theory of material mechanics, needs to be further proved by experiment technique in the future.
Broch, Ole; Renner, Jochen; Meybohm, Patrick; Albrecht, Martin; Höcker, Jan; Haneya, Assad; Steinfath, Markus; Bein, Berthold; Gruenewald, Matthias
The reliability of dynamic and volumetric variables of fluid responsiveness in the presence of pericardial effusion is still elusive. The aim of the present study was to investigate their predictive power in a porcine model with hemodynamic relevant pericardial effusion. A single-center animal investigation. Twelve German domestic pigs. Pigs were studied before and during pericardial effusion. Instrumentation included a pulmonary artery catheter and a transpulmonary thermodilution catheter in the femoral artery. Hemodynamic variables like cardiac output (COPAC) and stroke volume (SVPAC) derived from pulmonary artery catheter, global end-diastolic volume (GEDV), stroke volume variation (SVV), and pulse-pressure variation (PPV) were obtained. At baseline, SVV, PPV, GEDV, COPAC, and SVPAC reliably predicted fluid responsiveness (area under the curve 0.81 [p = 0.02], 0.82 [p = 0.02], 0.74 [p = 0.07], 0.74 [p = 0.07], 0.82 [p = 0.02]). After establishment of pericardial effusion the predictive power of dynamic variables was impaired and only COPAC and SVPAC and GEDV allowed significant prediction of fluid responsiveness (area under the curve 0.77 [p = 0.04], 0.76 [p = 0.05], 0.83 [p = 0.01]) with clinically relevant changes in threshold values. In this porcine model, hemodynamic relevant pericardial effusion abolished the ability of dynamic variables to predict fluid responsiveness. COPAC, SVPAC, and GEDV enabled prediction, but their threshold values were significantly changed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Bing, Yan-Hua; Zhang, Guang-Jian; Sun, Lei; Chu, Chun-Ping; Qiu, De-Lai
Sensory information coming from climbing fiber and mossy fiber-granule cell pathways, generates motor-related outputs according to internal rules of integration and computation in the cerebellar cortex. However, the dynamic properties of sensory information processing in mouse cerebellar cortex are less understood. Here, we studied the dynamic properties of sensory stimulation-evoked responses in the cerebellar granule cell layer (GCL) and molecular layer (ML) by electrophysiological recordings method. Our data showed that air-puff stimulation (5-10 ms in duration) of the ipsilateral whisker pad evoked single-peak responses in the GCL and ML; whereas a duration of stimulation ≥30 ms in GCL and ≥60 ms in ML, evoked double-peak responses that corresponded with stimulation-on and -off responses via mossy fiber pathway. The highest frequency of stimulation train for evoking GCL responses was 33 Hz. In contrast, the highest frequency of stimulation train for evoking ML responses was 4 Hz. These results indicate that the cerebellar granule cells transfer the high-fidelity sensory information from mossy fibers, which is cut-off by molecular layer interneurons (MLIs). Our results suggest that the MLIs network acts as a low-pass filter during the processing of high-frequency sensory information. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
Maity, Srimanta; Das, Amita; Kumar, Sandeep; Tiwari, Sanat Kumar
The collective response of the plasma medium is well known and has been explored extensively in the context of dusty plasma medium. On the other hand, the individual particle response associated with the collisional character giving rise to the dissipative phenomena has not been explored adequately. In this paper, two-dimensional molecular dynamics simulation of dust particles interacting via Yukawa potential has been considered. It has been shown that disturbances induced in a dust crystal elicit both collective and single particle responses. Generation of a few particles moving at speeds considerably higher than acoustic and/or shock speed (excited by the external disturbance) is observed. This is an indication of a single particle response. Furthermore, as these individual energetic particles propagate, the dust crystal is observed to crack along their path. Initially when the energy is high, these particles generate secondary energetic particles by the collisional scattering process. However, ultimately as these particles slow down they excite a collective response in the dust medium at secondary locations in a region which is undisturbed by the primary external disturbance. The condition when the cracking of the crystal stops and collective excitations get initiated has been identified quantitatively. The trailing collective primary disturbances would thus often encounter a disturbed medium with secondary and tertiary collective perturbations, thereby suffering significant modification in its propagation. It is thus clear that there is an interesting interplay (other than mere dissipation) between the single particle and collective response which governs the dynamics of any disturbance introduced in the medium.
Ostreikovsky, V. A.; Shevchenko, Ye N.; Yurkov, N. K.; Kochegarov, I. I.; Grishko, A. K.
The article overviews the anthropogenic risk models that take into consideration the development of different factors in time that influence the complex system. Three classes of mathematical models have been analyzed for the use in assessing the anthropogenic risk of complex dynamic systems. These models take into consideration time factor in determining the prospect of safety change of critical systems. The originality of the study is in the analysis of five time postulates in the theory of anthropogenic risk and the safety of highly important objects. It has to be stressed that the given postulates are still rarely used in practical assessment of equipment service life of critically important systems. That is why, the results of study presented in the article can be used in safety engineering and analysis of critically important complex technical systems.
Full Text Available White noise techniques have been used widely to investigate sensory systems in both vertebrates and invertebrates. White noise stimuli are powerful in their ability to rapidly generate data that help the experimenter decipher the spatio-temporal dynamics of neural and behavioral responses. One type of white noise stimuli, maximal length shift register sequences (m-sequences, have recently become particularly popular for extracting response kernels in insect motion vision. We here use such m-sequences to extract the impulse responses to figure motion in hoverfly lobula plate tangential cells (LPTCs. Figure motion is behaviorally important and many visually guided animals orient towards salient features in the surround. We show that LPTCs respond robustly to figure motion in the receptive field. The impulse response is scaled down in amplitude when the figure size is reduced, but its time course remains unaltered. However, a low contrast stimulus generates a slower response with a significantly longer time-to-peak and half-width. Impulse responses in females have a slower time-to-peak than males, but are otherwise similar. Finally we show that the shapes of the impulse response to a figure and a widefield stimulus are very similar, suggesting that the figure response could be coded by the same input as the widefield response.
Full Text Available Exposure to influenza viruses is necessary, but not sufficient, for healthy human hosts to develop symptomatic illness. The host response is an important determinant of disease progression. In order to delineate host molecular responses that differentiate symptomatic and asymptomatic Influenza A infection, we inoculated 17 healthy adults with live influenza (H3N2/Wisconsin and examined changes in host peripheral blood gene expression at 16 timepoints over 132 hours. Here we present distinct transcriptional dynamics of host responses unique to asymptomatic and symptomatic infections. We show that symptomatic hosts invoke, simultaneously, multiple pattern recognition receptors-mediated antiviral and inflammatory responses that may relate to virus-induced oxidative stress. In contrast, asymptomatic subjects tightly regulate these responses and exhibit elevated expression of genes that function in antioxidant responses and cell-mediated responses. We reveal an ab initio molecular signature that strongly correlates to symptomatic clinical disease and biomarkers whose expression patterns best discriminate early from late phases of infection. Our results establish a temporal pattern of host molecular responses that differentiates symptomatic from asymptomatic infections and reveals an asymptomatic host-unique non-passive response signature, suggesting novel putative molecular targets for both prognostic assessment and ameliorative therapeutic intervention in seasonal and pandemic influenza.
Paterson, Kade; Hill, Keith; Lythgo, Noel
Measures of walking instability such as stride dynamics and gait variability have been shown to identify future fallers in older adult populations with gait limitations or mobility disorders. This study investigated whether measures of walking instability can predict future fallers (over a prospective 12 month period) in a group of healthy and active older women. Ninety-seven healthy active women aged between 55 and 90 years walked for 7 min around a continuous walking circuit. Gait data recorded by a GAITRite(®) walkway and foot-mounted accelerometers were used to calculate measures of stride dynamics and gait variability. The participant's physical function and balance were assessed. Fall incidence was monitored over the following 12 months. Inter-limb differences (p≤0.04) in stride dynamics were found for fallers (one or more falls) aged over 70 years, and multiple fallers (two or more falls) aged over 55 years, but not in non-fallers or a combined group of single and non-fallers. No group differences were found in the measures of physical function, balance or gait, including variability. Additionally, no gait variable predicted falls. Reduced coordination of inter-limb dynamics was found in active healthy older fallers and multiple fallers despite no difference in other measures of intrinsic falls risk. Evaluating inter-limb dynamics may be a clinically sensitive technique to detect early gait instability and falls risk in high functioning older adults, prior to change in other measures of physical function, balance and gait. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Kleynhans, E; Clusella-Trullas, S; Terblanche, J S
Physiological responses to transient conditions may result in costly responses with little fitness benefits, and therefore, a trade-off must exist between the speed of response and the duration of exposure to new conditions. Here, using the puparia of an important insect disease vector, Glossina pallidipes, we examine this potential trade-off using a novel combination of an experimental approach and a population dynamics model. Specifically, we explore and dissect the interactions between plastic physiological responses, treatment-duration and -intensity using an experimental approach. We then integrate these experimental results from organismal water-balance data and their plastic responses into a population dynamics model to examine the potential relative fitness effects of simulated transient weather conditions on population growth rates. The results show evidence for the predicted trade-off for plasticity of water loss rate (WLR) and the duration of new environmental conditions. When altered environmental conditions lasted for longer durations, physiological responses could match the new environmental conditions, and this resulted in a lower WLR and lower rates of population decline. At shorter time-scales however, a mismatch between acclimation duration and physiological responses was reflected by reduced overall population growth rates. This may indicate a potential fitness cost due to insufficient time for physiological adjustments to take place. The outcomes of this work therefore suggest plastic water balance responses have both costs and benefits, and these depend on the time-scale and magnitude of variation in environmental conditions. These results are significant for understanding the evolution of plastic physiological responses and changes in population abundance in the context of environmental variability. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2014 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.
Lü Wei; Xu Hongwei
In China,land finance is actually an endogenous factor in economic growth.As a kind of nontraditional,informal government revenue in China's economic transition process,land finance is unstable,non-standard and unsustainable,and it simultaneously makes the current land-finance dependent growth mode difficult to maintain.The paper firstly analyzes the impact of the land finance on China's economic growth and economic structure change followed by discussing the possible risks in post-"land finance" period.It then put forward some suggestions to deal with the problem.The analysis shows that land finance exacerbates the economic fluctuation,bringing in the increase of government public expenditure and economic growth in the short term.Nonetheless,in the long term there is no significant effect,and it could gradually lead to a more unreasonable economic structure.In the post-"land finance" period,if we do not take precautions in advance,it will restrain the sustainable development of China's economy and society.
Tarama, Mitsusuke; Cremer, Peet; Borin, Dmitry Y.; Odenbach, Stefan; Löwen, Hartmut; Menzel, Andreas M.
Ferrogels and magnetic elastomers feature mechanical properties that can be reversibly tuned from outside through magnetic fields. Here we concentrate on the question of how their dynamic response can be adjusted. The influence of three factors on the dynamic behavior is demonstrated using appropriate minimal models: first, the orientational memory imprinted into one class of the materials during their synthesis; second, the structural arrangement of the magnetic particles in the materials; and third, the strength of an external magnetic field. To illustrate the latter point, structural data are extracted from a real experimental sample and analyzed. Understanding how internal structural properties and external influences impact the dominant dynamical properties helps to design materials that optimize the requested behavior.
Tedesco, Marco; Alexander, Patrick; Willis, Ian C; Banwell, Alison F; Arnold, Neil S; Hoffman, Matthew J
Supraglacial lake drainage on the Greenland ice sheet opens surface-to-bed connections, reduces basal friction, and temporarily increases ice flow velocities by up to an order of magnitude. Existing field-based observations of lake drainages and their impact on ice dynamics are limited, and focus on one specific draining mechanism. Here, we report and analyse global positioning system measurements of ice velocity and elevation made at five locations surrounding two lakes that drained by different mechanisms and produced different dynamic responses. For the lake that drained slowly (>24 h) by overtopping its basin, delivering water via a channel to a pre-existing moulin, speedup and uplift were less than half those associated with a lake that drained rapidly (∼2 h) through hydrofracturing and the creation of new moulins in the lake bottom. Our results suggest that the mode and associated rate of lake drainage govern the impact on ice dynamics. (letter)
This book provides state of the art coverage of important current issues in the analysis, measurement, and monitoring of the dynamic response of infrastructure to environmental loads, including those induced by earthquake motion and differential soil settlement. The coverage is in five parts that address numerical methods in structural dynamics, soil–structure interaction analysis, instrumentation and structural health monitoring, hybrid experimental mechanics, and structural health monitoring for bridges. Examples that give an impression of the scope of the topics discussed include the seismic analysis of bridges, soft computing in earthquake engineering, use of hybrid methods for soil–structure interaction analysis, effects of local site conditions on the inelastic dynamic analysis of bridges, embedded models in wireless sensor networks for structural health monitoring, recent developments in seismic simulation methods, and seismic performance assessment and retrofit of structures. Throughout, the empha...
Jiao Jianjun; Yang Xiaosong; Chen Lansun; Cai Shaohong
In this paper, a chemostat model with delayed response in growth and impulsive perturbations on the substrate is considered. Using the discrete dynamical system determined by the stroboscopic map, we obtain a microorganism-extinction periodic solution, further, the globally attractive condition of the microorganism-extinction periodic solution is obtained. By the use of the theory on delay functional and impulsive differential equation, we also obtain the permanent condition of the investigated system. Our results indicate that the discrete time delay has influence to the dynamics behaviors of the investigated system, and provide tactical basis for the experimenters to control the outcome of the chemostat. Furthermore, numerical analysis is inserted to illuminate the dynamics of the system affected by the discrete time delay.
Pleskac, Timothy J; Wershbale, Avishai
Beyond simply a decision process, repeated risky decisions also require a number of cognitive processes including learning, search and exploration, and attention. In this article, we examine how multiple response pathways develop over repeated risky decisions. Using the Balloon Analogue Risk Task (BART) as a case study, we show that 2 different response pathways emerge over the course of the task. The assessment pathway is a slower, more controlled pathway where participants deliberate over taking a risk. The 2nd pathway is a faster, more automatic process where no deliberation occurs. Results imply the slower assessment pathway is taken as choice conflict increases and that the faster automatic response is a learned response. Based on these results, we modify an existing formal cognitive model of decision making during the BART to account for these dual response pathways. The slower more deliberative response process is modeled with a sequential sampling process where evidence is accumulated to a threshold, while the other response is given automatically. We show that adolescents with conduct disorder and substance use disorder symptoms not only evaluate risks differently during the BART but also differ in the rate at which they develop the more automatic response. More broadly, our results suggest cognitive models of judgment decision making need to transition from treating observed decisions as the result of a single response pathway to the result of multiple response pathways that change and develop over time.
Sacco, G. M.; Nigrelli, G.; Bosio, A.; Chiarle, M.; Luino, F.
In its 40 years of activity, the Research Institute for Geo-hydrological Protection of the Italian National Research Council has amassed a vast and varied collection of historical documentation on landslides, muddy-debris flows, and floods in northern Italy from 1600 to the present. Since 2008, the archive resources have been maintained through a relational database management system. The database is used for routine study and research purposes as well as for providing support during geo-hydrological emergencies, when data need to be quickly and accurately retrieved. Retrieval speed and accuracy are the main objectives of an implementation based on a dynamic taxonomies model. Dynamic taxonomies are a general knowledge management model for configuring complex, heterogeneous information bases that support exploratory searching. At each stage of the process, the user can explore or browse the database in a guided yet unconstrained way by selecting the alternatives suggested for further refining the search. Dynamic taxonomies have been successfully applied to such diverse and apparently unrelated domains as e-commerce and medical diagnosis. Here, we describe the application of dynamic taxonomies to our database and compare it to traditional relational database query methods. The dynamic taxonomy interface, essentially a point-and-click interface, is considerably faster and less error-prone than traditional form-based query interfaces that require the user to remember and type in the "right" search keywords. Finally, dynamic taxonomy users have confirmed that one of the principal benefits of this approach is the confidence of having considered all the relevant information. Dynamic taxonomies and relational databases work in synergy to provide fast and precise searching: one of the most important factors in timely response to emergencies.
Liu, Y.; Melillo, J.; Niu, S.
a coordinated approach that combines long-term, large-scale global change experiments with process studies and modeling. Long-term global change manipulative experiments, especially in high-priority ecosystems such as tropical forests and high-latitude regions, are essential to maximize information gain......Many serious ecosystem consequences of climate change will take decades or even centuries to emerge. Long-term ecological responses to global change are strongly regulated by slow processes, such as changes in species composition, carbon dynamics in soil and by long-lived plants, and accumulation...... to be the most effective strategy to gain the best information on long-term ecosystem dynamics in response to global change....
Full Text Available Artificial neural networks are powerful algorithms for constructing nonlinear empirical models from operational data. Their use is becoming increasingly popular in the complex modeling tasks required by diagnostic, safety, and control applications in complex technologies such as those employed in the nuclear industry. In this paper, the nonlinear modeling capabilities of an infinite impulse response multilayer perceptron (IIR-MLP for nuclear dynamics are considered in comparison to static modeling by a finite impulse response multilayer perceptron (FIR-MLP and a conventional static MLP. The comparison is made with respect to the nonlinear dynamics of a nuclear reactor as investigated by IIR-MLP in a previous paper. The superior performance of the locally recurrent scheme is demonstrated.
Vitali, Ettore; Shi, Hao; Qin, Mingpu; Zhang, Shiwei
Response functions are central objects in physics. They provide crucial information about the behavior of physical systems, and they can be directly compared with scattering experiments involving particles such as neutrons or photons. Calculations of such functions starting from the many-body Hamiltonian of a physical system are challenging and extremely valuable. In this paper, we focus on the two-dimensional (2D) ultracold Fermi atomic gas which has been realized experimentally. We present an application of the dynamical BCS theory to obtain response functions for different regimes of interaction strengths in the 2D gas with zero-range attractive interaction. We also discuss auxiliary-field quantum Monte Carlo (AFQMC) methods for the calculation of imaginary time correlations in these dilute Fermi gas systems. Illustrative results are given and comparisons are made between AFQMC and dynamical BCS theory results to assess the accuracy of the latter.
Full Text Available For realizing the variation of structural dynamic characteristics due to neighbor structure in buildings group, the surface structure is idealized as an equivalent single degree of freedom system with rigid base whose site consists of a single homogeneous layer. Based on the model, a equivalent method on the equivalent seismic excitation is proposed. Then, the differences of seismic response and equivalent seismic input between soil - structure interaction (SSI system and structure -soil-structure interaction (SSSI system are investigated by harmonic analysis. The numerical results show that dynamic responses would be underestimated in SSSI system when the forcing frequencies are close to the Natural frequency if the effects of neighborhood structure were ignored. Neighborhood structure would make the translational displacement increase and rocking vibration decrease. When establishing an effective seismic input, it is necessary to consider the impact of inertia interaction.