WorldWideScience

Sample records for risk reduction tool

  1. RISK REDUCTION WITH A FUZZY EXPERT EXPLORATION TOOL

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robert S. Balch; Ron Broadhead

    2005-03-01

    Incomplete or sparse data such as geologic or formation characteristics introduce a high level of risk for oil exploration and development projects. ''Expert'' systems developed and used in several disciplines and industries have demonstrated beneficial results when working with sparse data. State-of-the-art expert exploration tools, relying on a database, and computer maps generated by neural networks and user inputs, have been developed through the use of ''fuzzy'' logic, a mathematical treatment of imprecise or non-explicit parameters and values. Oil prospecting risk has been reduced with the use of these properly verified and validated ''Fuzzy Expert Exploration (FEE) Tools.'' Through the course of this project, FEE Tools and supporting software were developed for two producing formations in southeast New Mexico. Tools of this type can be beneficial in many regions of the U.S. by enabling risk reduction in oil and gas prospecting as well as decreased prospecting and development costs. In today's oil industry environment, many smaller exploration companies lack the resources of a pool of expert exploration personnel. Downsizing, volatile oil prices, and scarcity of domestic exploration funds have also affected larger companies, and will, with time, affect the end users of oil industry products in the U.S. as reserves are depleted. The FEE Tools benefit a diverse group in the U.S., allowing a more efficient use of scarce funds, and potentially reducing dependence on foreign oil and providing lower product prices for consumers.

  2. RISK REDUCTION WITH A FUZZY EXPERT EXPLORATION TOOL

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    William W. Weiss

    2000-06-30

    Incomplete or sparse information on geologic or formation characteristics introduces a high level of risk for oil exploration and development projects. Expert systems have been developed and used in several disciplines and industries, including medical diagnostics, with favorable results. A state-of-the-art exploration ''expert'' tool, relying on a computerized data base and computer maps generated by neural networks, is proposed through the use of ''fuzzy'' logic, a relatively new mathematical treatment of imprecise or non-explicit parameters and values. This project will develop an Artificial Intelligence system that will draw upon a wide variety of information to provide realistic estimates of risk. ''Fuzzy logic,'' a system of integrating large amounts of inexact, incomplete information with modern computational methods to derive usable conclusions, has been demonstrated as a cost-effective computational technology in many industrial applications. During project year 1, 90% of geologic, geophysical, production and price data were assimilated for installation into the database. Logs provided geologic data consisting of formation tops of the Brushy Canyon, Lower Brushy Canyon, and Bone Springs zones of 700 wells used to construct regional cross sections. Regional structure and isopach maps were constructed using kriging to interpolate between the measured points. One of the structure derivative maps (azimuth of curvature) visually correlates with Brushy Canyon fields on the maximum change contours. Derivatives of the regional geophysical data also visually correlate with the location of the fields. The azimuth of maximum dip approximately locates fields on the maximum change contours. In a similar manner the second derivative in the x-direction of the gravity map visually correlates with the alignment of the known fields. The visual correlations strongly suggest that neural network architectures will be

  3. Semantic Mediation Tool for Risk Reduction, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This project focuses on providing an infrastructure to aid the building of ontologies from existing NASA applications, in a manner that leads to long-term risk...

  4. Risk Reduction with a Fuzzy Expert Exploration Tool

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Weiss, William W.; Broadhead, Ron; Sung, Andrew

    2000-10-24

    This project developed an Artificial Intelligence system that drew up on a wide variety of information in providing realistic estimates of risk. ''Fuzzy logic,'' a system of integrating large amounts of inexact, incomplete information with modern computational methods derived usable conclusions, were demonstrated as a cost-effective computational technology in many industrial applications.

  5. Quantitative Risk reduction estimation Tool For Control Systems, Suggested Approach and Research Needs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miles McQueen; Wayne Boyer; Mark Flynn; Sam Alessi

    2006-03-01

    For the past year we have applied a variety of risk assessment technologies to evaluate the risk to critical infrastructure from cyber attacks on control systems. More recently, we identified the need for a stand alone control system risk reduction estimation tool to provide owners and operators of control systems with a more useable, reliable, and credible method for managing the risks from cyber attack. Risk is defined as the probability of a successful attack times the value of the resulting loss, typically measured in lives and dollars. Qualitative and ad hoc techniques for measuring risk do not provide sufficient support for cost benefit analyses associated with cyber security mitigation actions. To address the need for better quantitative risk reduction models we surveyed previous quantitative risk assessment research; evaluated currently available tools; developed new quantitative techniques [17] [18]; implemented a prototype analysis tool to demonstrate how such a tool might be used; used the prototype to test a variety of underlying risk calculational engines (e.g. attack tree, attack graph); and identified technical and research needs. We concluded that significant gaps still exist and difficult research problems remain for quantitatively assessing the risk to control system components and networks, but that a useable quantitative risk reduction estimation tool is not beyond reach.

  6. Reducing catheter-related thrombosis using a risk reduction tool centered on catheter to vessel ratio.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spencer, Timothy R; Mahoney, Keegan J

    2017-11-01

    In vascular access practices, the internal vessel size is considered important, and a catheter to vessel ratio (CVR) is recommended to assist clinicians in selecting the most appropriate-sized device for the vessel. In 2016, new practice recommendations stated that the CVR can increase from 33 to 45% of the vessels diameter. There has been evidence on larger diameter catheters and increased thrombosis risk in recent literature, while insufficient information established on what relationship to vessel size is appropriate for any intra-vascular device. Earlier references to clinical standards and guidelines did not clearly address vessel size in relation to the area consumed or external catheter diameter. The aim of this manuscript is to present catheter-related thrombosis evidence and develop a standardized process of ultrasound-guided vessel assessment, integrating CVR, Virchow's triad phenomenon and vessel health and preservation strategies, empowering an evidence-based approach to device placement. Through review, calculation and assessment on the areas of the 33 and 45% rule, a preliminary clinical tool was developed to assist clinicians make cognizant decisions when placing intravascular devices relating to target vessel size, focusing on potential reduction in catheter-related thrombosis. Increasing the understanding and utilization of CVRs will lead to a safer, more consistent approach to device placement, with potential thrombosis reduction strategies. The future of evidence-based data relies on the clinician to capture accurate vessel measurements and device-related outcomes. This will lead to a more dependable data pool, driving the relationship of catheter-related thrombosis and vascular assessment.

  7. Randomized Comparison of Mobile and Web-Tools to Provide Dementia Risk Reduction Education: Use, Engagement and Participant Satisfaction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Connor, Elodie; Farrow, Maree; Hatherly, Chris

    2014-01-01

    Encouraging middle-aged adults to maintain their physical and cognitive health may have a significant impact on reducing the prevalence of dementia in the future. Mobile phone apps and interactive websites may be one effective way to target this age group. However, to date there has been little research investigating the user experience of dementia risk reduction tools delivered in this way. The aim of this study was to explore participant engagement and evaluations of three different targeted smartphone and Web-based dementia risk reduction tools following a four-week intervention. Participants completed a Web-based screening questionnaire to collect eligibility information. Eligible participants were asked to complete a Web-based baseline questionnaire and were then randomly assigned to use one of the three dementia risk reduction tools for a period of four weeks: (1) a mobile phone application; (2) an information-based website; and (3) an interactive website. User evaluations were obtained via a Web-based follow-up questionnaire after completion of the intervention. Of 415 eligible participants, 370 (89.16%) completed the baseline questionnaire and were assigned to an intervention group; 200 (54.05%) completed the post-intervention questionnaire. The average age of participants was 52 years, and 149 (75%) were female. Findings indicated that participants from all three intervention groups reported a generally positive impression of the tools across a range of domains. Participants using the information-based website reported higher ratings of their overall impression of the tool, F2,191=4.12, P=.02; how interesting the information was, F2,189=3.53, P=.03; how helpful the information was, F2,192=4.15, P=.02; and how much they learned, F2,188=3.86, P=.02. Group differences were significant between the mobile phone app and information-based website users, but not between the interactive website users and the other two groups. Additionally, participants using the

  8. Randomized Comparison of Mobile and Web-Tools to Provide Dementia Risk Reduction Education: Use, Engagement and Participant Satisfaction

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Connor, Elodie; Hatherly, Chris

    2014-01-01

    Background Encouraging middle-aged adults to maintain their physical and cognitive health may have a significant impact on reducing the prevalence of dementia in the future. Mobile phone apps and interactive websites may be one effective way to target this age group. However, to date there has been little research investigating the user experience of dementia risk reduction tools delivered in this way. Objective The aim of this study was to explore participant engagement and evaluations of three different targeted smartphone and Web-based dementia risk reduction tools following a four-week intervention. Methods Participants completed a Web-based screening questionnaire to collect eligibility information. Eligible participants were asked to complete a Web-based baseline questionnaire and were then randomly assigned to use one of the three dementia risk reduction tools for a period of four weeks: (1) a mobile phone application; (2) an information-based website; and (3) an interactive website. User evaluations were obtained via a Web-based follow-up questionnaire after completion of the intervention. Results Of 415 eligible participants, 370 (89.16%) completed the baseline questionnaire and were assigned to an intervention group; 200 (54.05%) completed the post-intervention questionnaire. The average age of participants was 52 years, and 149 (75%) were female. Findings indicated that participants from all three intervention groups reported a generally positive impression of the tools across a range of domains. Participants using the information-based website reported higher ratings of their overall impression of the tool, F2,191=4.12, P=.02; how interesting the information was, F2,189=3.53, P=.03; how helpful the information was, F2,192=4.15, P=.02; and how much they learned, F2,188=3.86, P=.02. Group differences were significant between the mobile phone app and information-based website users, but not between the interactive website users and the other two groups

  9. Mobile Health Devices as Tools for Worldwide Cardiovascular Risk Reduction and Disease Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piette, John D.; List, Justin; Rana, Gurpreet K.; Townsend, Whitney; Striplin, Dana; Heisler, Michele

    2016-01-01

    We examined evidence on whether mobile health (mHealth) tools, including Interactive Voice Response (IVR) calls, short message service (SMS) or text messaging, and smartphones, can improve lifestyle behaviors and management related to cardiovascular diseases throughout the world. We conducted a state-of-the-art review and literature synthesis of peer-reviewed and grey literature published since 2004. The review prioritized randomized trials and studies focused on cardiovascular diseases and risk factors, but included other reports when they represented the best available evidence. The search emphasized reports on the potential benefits of mHealth interventions implemented in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). IVR and SMS interventions can improve cardiovascular preventive care in developed countries by addressing risk factors including weight, smoking, and physical activity. IVR and SMS-based interventions for cardiovascular disease management also have shown benefits with respect to hypertension management, hospital readmissions, and diabetic glycemic control. Multi-modal interventions including web-based communication with clinicians and mHealth-enabled clinical monitoring with feedback also have shown benefits. The evidence regarding the potential benefits of interventions using smartphones and social media is still developing. Studies of mHealth interventions have been conducted in more than 30 LMICs, and evidence to date suggests that programs are feasible and may improve medication adherence and disease outcomes. Emerging evidence suggests that mHealth interventions may improve cardiovascular-related lifestyle behaviors and disease management. Next generation mHealth programs developed worldwide should be based on evidence-based behavioral theories and incorporate advances in artificial intelligence for adapting systems automatically to patients’ unique and changing needs. PMID:26596977

  10. Mobile Health Devices as Tools for Worldwide Cardiovascular Risk Reduction and Disease Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piette, John D; List, Justin; Rana, Gurpreet K; Townsend, Whitney; Striplin, Dana; Heisler, Michele

    2015-11-24

    We examined evidence on whether mobile health (mHealth) tools, including interactive voice response calls, short message service, or text messaging, and smartphones, can improve lifestyle behaviors and management related to cardiovascular diseases throughout the world. We conducted a state-of-the-art review and literature synthesis of peer-reviewed and gray literature published since 2004. The review prioritized randomized trials and studies focused on cardiovascular diseases and risk factors, but included other reports when they represented the best available evidence. The search emphasized reports on the potential benefits of mHealth interventions implemented in low- and middle-income countries. Interactive voice response and short message service interventions can improve cardiovascular preventive care in developed countries by addressing risk factors including weight, smoking, and physical activity. Interactive voice response and short message service-based interventions for cardiovascular disease management also have shown benefits with respect to hypertension management, hospital readmissions, and diabetic glycemic control. Multimodal interventions including Web-based communication with clinicians and mHealth-enabled clinical monitoring with feedback also have shown benefits. The evidence regarding the potential benefits of interventions using smartphones and social media is still developing. Studies of mHealth interventions have been conducted in >30 low- and middle-income countries, and evidence to date suggests that programs are feasible and may improve medication adherence and disease outcomes. Emerging evidence suggests that mHealth interventions may improve cardiovascular-related lifestyle behaviors and disease management. Next-generation mHealth programs developed worldwide should be based on evidence-based behavioral theories and incorporate advances in artificial intelligence for adapting systems automatically to patients' unique and changing needs

  11. Eliciting affect via immersive virtual reality: a tool for adolescent risk reduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hadley, Wendy; Houck, Christopher D; Barker, David H; Garcia, Abbe Marrs; Spitalnick, Josh S; Curtis, Virginia; Roye, Scott; Brown, Larry K

    2014-04-01

    A virtual reality environment (VRE) was designed to expose participants to substance use and sexual risk-taking cues to examine the utility of VR in eliciting adolescent physiological arousal. 42 adolescents (55% male) with a mean age of 14.54 years (SD = 1.13) participated. Physiological arousal was examined through heart rate (HR), respiratory sinus arrhythmia (RSA), and self-reported somatic arousal. A within-subject design (neutral VRE, VR party, and neutral VRE) was utilized to examine changes in arousal. The VR party demonstrated an increase in physiological arousal relative to a neutral VRE. Examination of individual segments of the party (e.g., orientation, substance use, and sexual risk) demonstrated that HR was significantly elevated across all segments, whereas only the orientation and sexual risk segments demonstrated significant impact on RSA. This study provides preliminary evidence that VREs can be used to generate physiological arousal in response to substance use and sexual risk cues.

  12. Dutch Risk Assessment tools

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Venema, A.

    2015-01-01

    The ‘Risico- Inventarisatie- en Evaluatie-instrumenten’ is the name for the Dutch risk assessment (RA) tools. A RA tool can be used to perform a risk assessment including an evaluation of the identified risks. These tools were among the first online risk assessment tools developed in Europe. The

  13. The cardiovascular event reduction tool (CERT)--a simplified cardiac risk prediction model developed from the West of Scotland Coronary Prevention Study (WOSCOPS).

    Science.gov (United States)

    L'Italien, G; Ford, I; Norrie, J; LaPuerta, P; Ehreth, J; Jackson, J; Shepherd, J

    2000-03-15

    The clinical decision to treat hypercholesterolemia is premised on an awareness of patient risk, and cardiac risk prediction models offer a practical means of determining such risk. However, these models are based on observational cohorts where estimates of the treatment benefit are largely inferred. The West of Scotland Coronary Prevention Study (WOSCOPS) provides an opportunity to develop a risk-benefit prediction model from the actual observed primary event reduction seen in the trial. Five-year Cox model risk estimates were derived from all WOSCOPS subjects (n = 6,595 men, aged 45 to 64 years old at baseline) using factors previously shown to be predictive of definite fatal coronary heart disease or nonfatal myocardial infarction. Model risk factors included age, diastolic blood pressure, total cholesterol/ high-density lipoprotein ratio (TC/HDL), current smoking, diabetes, family history of fatal coronary heart disease, nitrate use or angina, and treatment (placebo/ 40-mg pravastatin). All risk factors were expressed as categorical variables to facilitate risk assessment. Risk estimates were incorporated into a simple, hand-held slide rule or risk tool. Risk estimates were identified for 5-year age bands (45 to 65 years), 4 categories of TC/HDL ratio ( or = 7.5), 2 levels of diastolic blood pressure ( or = 90 mm Hg), from 0 to 3 additional risk factors (current smoking, diabetes, family history of premature fatal coronary heart disease, nitrate use or angina), and pravastatin treatment. Five-year risk estimates ranged from 2% in very low-risk subjects to 61% in the very high-risk subjects. Risk reduction due to pravastatin treatment averaged 31%. Thus, the Cardiovascular Event Reduction Tool (CERT) is a risk prediction model derived from the WOSCOPS trial. Its use will help physicians identify patients who will benefit from cholesterol reduction.

  14. Cost effectiveness of robotics and remote tooling for occupational risk reduction at a nuclear fuel fabrication facility

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lochard, Jacques

    1989-08-01

    This case study, related to the design stage of a fuel fabrication facility, presents the evaluation of alternative options to manipulate mixed oxide fuel rods in a quality control shop. It is based on a study performed in the framework of the 'MELOX project' developed by COGEMA in France. The methodology for evaluating robotic actions is resulting from a research work part funded by the IAEA under the co-ordinated research programme on 'Comparison of cost-effectiveness of risk reduction among different energy systems', and by the commission of the European Communities under the research and training programme on radiation protection.

  15. Cost effectiveness of robotics and remote tooling for occupational risk reduction at a nuclear fuel fabrication facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lochard, Jacques

    1989-01-01

    This case study, related to the design stage of a fuel fabrication facility, presents the evaluation of alternative options to manipulate mixed oxide fuel rods in a quality control shop. It is based on a study performed in the framework of the 'MELOX project' developed by COGEMA in France. The methodology for evaluating robotic actions is resulting from a research work part funded by the IAEA under the co-ordinated research programme on 'Comparison of cost-effectiveness of risk reduction among different energy systems', and by the commission of the European Communities under the research and training programme on radiation protection

  16. Drive Cost Reduction, Increase Innovation and Mitigate Risk with Advanced Knowledge Discovery Tools Designed to Unlock and Leverage Prior Knowledge

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mitchell, I.

    2016-01-01

    Full text: The nuclear industry is knowledge-intensive and includes a diverse number of stakeholders. Much of this knowledge is at risk as engineers, technicians and project professionals retire, leaving a widening skills and information gap. This knowledge is critical in an increasingly complex environment with information from past projects often buried in decades-old, non-integrated systems enterprise. Engineers can spend 40% or more of their time searching for answers across the enterprise instead of solving problems. The inability to access trusted industry knowledge results in increased risk and expense. Advanced knowledge discovery technologies slash research times by as much as 75% and accelerate innovation and problem solving by giving technical professionals access to the information they need, in the context of the problems they are trying to solve. Unlike traditional knowledge management approaches, knowledge discovery tools powered by semantic search technologies are adept at uncovering answers in unstructured data and require no tagging, organization or moving of data, meaning a smaller IT footprint and faster time-to-knowledge. This session will highlight best-in-class knowledge discovery technologies, content, and strategies to give nuclear industry organizations the ability to leverage the corpus of enterprise knowledge into the future. (author

  17. Twitter as a Potential Disaster Risk Reduction Tool. Part II: Descriptive Analysis of Identified Twitter Activity during the 2013 Hattiesburg F4 Tornado.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooper, Guy Paul; Yeager, Violet; Burkle, Frederick M; Subbarao, Italo

    2015-06-29

    This article describes a novel triangulation methodological approach for identifying twitter activity of regional active twitter users during the 2013 Hattiesburg EF-4 Tornado. A data extraction and geographically centered filtration approach was utilized to generate Twitter data for 48 hrs pre- and post-Tornado. The data was further validated using six sigma approach utilizing GPS data. The regional analysis revealed a total of 81,441 tweets, 10,646 Twitter users, 27,309 retweets and 2637 tweets with GPS coordinates. Twitter tweet activity increased 5 fold during the response to the Hattiesburg Tornado.  Retweeting activity increased 2.2 fold. Tweets with a hashtag increased 1.4 fold. Twitter was an effective disaster risk reduction tool for the Hattiesburg EF-4 Tornado 2013.

  18. Spreadsheet tool for estimating noise reduction costs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frank, L.; Senden, V.; Leszczynski, Y.

    2009-01-01

    The Northeast Capital Industrial Association (NCIA) represents industry in Alberta's industrial heartland. The organization is in the process of developing a regional noise management plan (RNMP) for their member companies. The RNMP includes the development of a noise reduction cost spreadsheet tool to conduct reviews of practical noise control treatments available for individual plant equipment, inclusive of ranges of noise attenuation achievable, which produces a budgetary prediction of the installed cost of practical noise control treatments. This paper discussed the noise reduction cost spreadsheet tool, with particular reference to noise control best practices approaches and spreadsheet tool development such as prerequisite, assembling data required, approach, and unit pricing database. Use and optimization of the noise reduction cost spreadsheet tool was also discussed. It was concluded that the noise reduction cost spreadsheet tool is an easy interactive tool to estimate implementation costs related to different strategies and options of noise control mitigating measures and was very helpful in gaining insight for noise control planning purposes. 2 tabs.

  19. Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... 11/12/2014 Risk Calculator About the Tool Colorectal Cancer Risk Factors Download SAS and Gauss Code Page ... Rectal Cancer: Prevention, Genetics, Causes Tests to Detect Colorectal Cancer and Polyps Cancer Risk Prediction Resources Update November ...

  20. Tools for Microbiological risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bassett, john; Nauta, Maarten; Lindqvist, Roland

    can increase the understanding of microbiological risks in foods. It is timely to inform food safety professionals about the availability and utility of MRA tools. Therefore, the focus of this report is to aid the food safety manager by providing a concise summary of the tools available for the MRA......Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) has emerged as a comprehensive and systematic approach for addressing the risk of pathogens in specific foods and/or processes. At government level, MRA is increasingly recognised as a structured and objective approach to understand the level of risk in a given...... food/pathogen scenario. Tools developed so far support qualitative and quantitative assessments of the risk that a food pathogen poses to a particular population. Risk can be expressed as absolute numbers or as relative (ranked) risks. The food industry is beginning to appreciate that the tools for MRA...

  1. The VeTOOLS Project: an example of how to strengthen collaboration between scientists and Civil Protections in disaster risk reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marti, Joan; Bartolini, Stefania; Becerril, Laura

    2016-04-01

    VeTOOLS is a project funded by the European Commission's Humanitarian Aid and Civil Protection department (ECHO), and aims at creating an integrated software platform specially designed to assess and manage volcanic risk. The project facilitates interaction and cooperation between scientists and Civil Protection Agencies in order to share, unify, and exchange procedures, methodologies and technologies to effectively reduce the impacts of volcanic disasters. The project aims at 1) improving and developing volcanic risk assessment and management capacities in active volcanic regions; 2) developing universal methodologies, scenario definitions, response strategies and alert protocols to cope with the full range of volcanic threats; 4) improving quantitative methods and tools for vulnerability and risk assessment; and 5) defining thresholds and protocols for civil protection. With these objectives, the VeTOOLS project points to two of the Sendai Framework resolutions for implementing it: i) Provide guidance on methodologies and standards for risk assessments, disaster risk modelling and the use of data; ii) Promote and support the availability and application of science and technology to decision-making, and offers a good example on how a close collaboration between science and civil protection is an effective way to contribute to DRR. European Commission ECHO Grant SI2.695524

  2. Ecosystem Approach To Flood Disaster Risk Reduction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    RK Kamble

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available India is one of the ten worst disaster prone countries of the world. The country is prone to disasters due to number of factors; both natural and anthropogenic, including adverse geo-climatic conditions, topographical features, environmental degradation, population growth, urbanisation, industrlisation, non-scientific development practices etc. The factors either in original or by accelerating the intensity and frequency of disasters are responsible for heavy toll of human lives and disrupting the life support systems in the country. India has 40 million hectares of the flood-prone area, on an average, flood affect an area of around 7.5 million hectares per year. Knowledge of environmental systems and processes are key factors in the management of disasters, particularly the hydro-metrological ones. Management of flood risk and disaster is a multi-dimensional affair that calls for interdisciplinary approach. Ecosystem based disaster risk reduction builds on ecosystem management principles, strategies and tools in order to maximise ecosystem services for risk reduction. This perspective takes into account the integration of social and ecological systems, placing people at the centre of decision making. The present paper has been attempted to demonstrate how ecosystem-based approach can help in flood disaster risk reduction. International Journal of Environment, Volume-2, Issue-1, Sep-Nov 2013, Pages 70-82 DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/ije.v2i1.9209

  3. Software for Probabilistic Risk Reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hensley, Scott; Michel, Thierry; Madsen, Soren; Chapin, Elaine; Rodriguez, Ernesto

    2004-01-01

    A computer program implements a methodology, denoted probabilistic risk reduction, that is intended to aid in planning the development of complex software and/or hardware systems. This methodology integrates two complementary prior methodologies: (1) that of probabilistic risk assessment and (2) a risk-based planning methodology, implemented in a prior computer program known as Defect Detection and Prevention (DDP), in which multiple requirements and the beneficial effects of risk-mitigation actions are taken into account. The present methodology and the software are able to accommodate both process knowledge (notably of the efficacy of development practices) and product knowledge (notably of the logical structure of a system, the development of which one seeks to plan). Estimates of the costs and benefits of a planned development can be derived. Functional and non-functional aspects of software can be taken into account, and trades made among them. It becomes possible to optimize the planning process in the sense that it becomes possible to select the best suite of process steps and design choices to maximize the expectation of success while remaining within budget.

  4. Absolute risk, absolute risk reduction and relative risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jose Andres Calvache

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available This article illustrates the epidemiological concepts of absolute risk, absolute risk reduction and relative risk through a clinical example. In addition, it emphasizes the usefulness of these concepts in clinical practice, clinical research and health decision-making process.

  5. Risk reduction: perioperative smoking intervention

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Ann; Tønnesen, Hanne

    2006-01-01

    Smoking is a well-known risk factor for perioperative complications. Smokers experience an increased incidence of respiratory complications during anaesthesia and an increased risk of postoperative cardiopulmonary complications, infections and impaired wound healing. Smokers have a greater risk...... of postoperative intensive care admission. Even passive smoking is associated with increased risk at operation. Preoperative smoking intervention 6-8 weeks before surgery can reduce the complications risk significantly. Four weeks of abstinence from smoking seems to improve wound healing. An intensive, individual...... approach to smoking intervention results in a significantly better postoperative outcome. Future research should focus upon the effect of a shorter period of preoperative smoking cessation. All smokers admitted for surgery should be informed of the increased risk, recommended preoperative smoking cessation...

  6. Sound transit climate risk reduction project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-09-01

    The Climate Risk Reduction Project assessed how climate change may affect Sound Transit commuter rail, light rail, and express bus : services. The project identified potential climate change impacts on agency operations, assets, and long-term plannin...

  7. Careers Education: An Effective Tool for Poverty Reduction | Okafor ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Careers Education: An Effective Tool for Poverty Reduction. ... Open Access DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT Subscription or Fee Access ... The research was carried out based mainly on the secondary source of data. Among other things, the study ...

  8. RISK TRANSFER AND RISK REDUCTION OF ATHLETES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Željko Vojinović

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available One of the indispensable factors in sports is insurance. The accidents influence not only the health, permanently or temporarily,they also influence the financial resources, more or less, depending on the recovery time of the injuries. Insurer in this case pay the agreed amount (the agreed compensation to the insured. Each participant in the sporting competition should have personal insurance. The reasons for the theme are to find ways to explain how athletes can reduce the risks they are exposed to in doing their activities, training and competition, and other moments in life. Every man has a need for certainty in the future, regardless of the category in which he works, the values and skills available. The only difference is in absolute values and everyone has his own need. Athletes ,those from less successful to the most successful ones, whose transfers or fees are in millions, all think about the future and of course how to save and invest funds that are earned. They can find a solution in insurance, as an institution that takes over their risks, taking care of the invested money and benefits of those stakes. When there is uncertainty in our lives we seek security and see it as a basic need. Insurers claim that insurance offers just that - the security of property and life

  9. Metal Vapor Arcing Risk Assessment Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Monika C.; Leidecker, Henning W.

    2010-01-01

    The Tin Whisker Metal Vapor Arcing Risk Assessment Tool has been designed to evaluate the risk of metal vapor arcing and to help facilitate a decision toward a researched risk disposition. Users can evaluate a system without having to open up the hardware. This process allows for investigating components at risk rather than spending time and money analyzing every component. The tool points to a risk level and provides direction for appropriate action and documentation.

  10. Outage risk reduction at Diablo Canyon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burnett, Tobias W.T.; Eugene Newman, C.

    2004-01-01

    A formal risk reduction program was conducted at the Diablo Canyon Nuclear Generating plant as part of EPRI's Outage Risk Assessment and Management Program. The program began with a probabilistic and deterministic assessment of the frequency of core coolant boiling and core uncovery during shutdown operations. This step identified important contributors to risk, periods of high vulnerability, and potential mechanisms for reducing risk. Next, recovery strategies were evaluated and procedures, training, and outage schedules modified. Twelve risk reduction enhancements were developed and implemented. These enhancements and their impact are described in this paper. These enhancements reduced the calculated risk of core uncovery by about a factor of four for a refueling outage without lengthening the outage schedule; increased the outage efficiency, contributing to completing 11 days ahead of schedule; and helped to earn the highest achievable SALP rating from the NRC. (author)

  11. The Global Earthquake Model and Disaster Risk Reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smolka, A. J.

    2015-12-01

    Advanced, reliable and transparent tools and data to assess earthquake risk are inaccessible to most, especially in less developed regions of the world while few, if any, globally accepted standards currently allow a meaningful comparison of risk between places. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a collaborative effort that aims to provide models, datasets and state-of-the-art tools for transparent assessment of earthquake hazard and risk. As part of this goal, GEM and its global network of collaborators have developed the OpenQuake engine (an open-source software for hazard and risk calculations), the OpenQuake platform (a web-based portal making GEM's resources and datasets freely available to all potential users), and a suite of tools to support modelers and other experts in the development of hazard, exposure and vulnerability models. These resources are being used extensively across the world in hazard and risk assessment, from individual practitioners to local and national institutions, and in regional projects to inform disaster risk reduction. Practical examples for how GEM is bridging the gap between science and disaster risk reduction are: - Several countries including Switzerland, Turkey, Italy, Ecuador, Papua-New Guinea and Taiwan (with more to follow) are computing national seismic hazard using the OpenQuake-engine. In some cases these results are used for the definition of actions in building codes. - Technical support, tools and data for the development of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risk models for regional projects in South America and Sub-Saharan Africa. - Going beyond physical risk, GEM's scorecard approach evaluates local resilience by bringing together neighborhood/community leaders and the risk reduction community as a basis for designing risk reduction programs at various levels of geography. Actual case studies are Lalitpur in the Kathmandu Valley in Nepal and Quito/Ecuador. In agreement with GEM's collaborative approach, all

  12. Thyroid Cancer Risk Assessment Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    The R package thyroid implements a risk prediction model developed by NCI researchers to calculate the absolute risk of developing a second primary thyroid cancer (SPTC) in individuals who were diagnosed with a cancer during their childhood.

  13. Disaster risk reduction and sustainable development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khurshedi, N.

    2005-01-01

    During the past four decades, natural hazards such as earthquakes, volcanic activity, and slides, tsunami tropical cyclones and other severe storms, tornadoes and high winds, river floods and coastal flooding, wildfire and associated haze drought, sand/dust storms, and insect infestations have caused major loss of human lives and livelihoods, the destruction of economic and social infrastructure, as well as environmental damages. Economic losses have increased almost ten times during this period. As it happen in recent Asia Tsunami, in which over 2, 00,000 people reportedly killed, estimated five million homeless, and resulted in massive displacement of population and extensive damage to infrastructure. The escalation of severe disaster events triggered by natural hazards and related technological and environment disasters is increasingly threatening both sustainable development and poverty-reduction initiatives. The loss of human lives and the rise in the cost of reconstruction efforts and loss of development assets has forced the issue of disaster reduction and risk management higher on the policy agenda of affected governments as well a multilateral and bilateral agencies and NGOs. For this Disaster risk reduction-.strategies are aimed at enabling societies at risk to become engaged in the conscious management of risk and the reduction of vulnerability. The adoption of appropriate development policies can reduce disaster risk. These policies should be gender sensitive and need the necessary political commitment. They involve the adoption of suitable regulatory and other legal measures, institutional reform, improved analytical and methodological capabilities, financial planning, education and awareness. (author)

  14. Evaluating a Health Risk Reduction Program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagelberg, Daniel B.

    1981-01-01

    A health risk reduction program at Bowling Green State University (Ohio) tested the efficacy of peer education against the efficacy of returning (by mail) health questionnaire results. A peer health education program did not appear to be effective in changing student attitudes or lifestyles; however, the research methodology may not have been…

  15. Liquidity risk charges as a macroprudential tool

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Perotti, E.; Suarez, J.

    2009-01-01

    Liquidity risk charges were proposed in February 2009 as a new macro-prudential tool to discourage systemic risk creation by banks. A new CEPR Policy Insight refines this proposal in order to clarify challenging issues surrounding the implementation of liquidity risk charges.

  16. Development of computerized risk management tool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kil Yoo Kim; Mee Jung Hwang; Seung Cheol Jang; Sang Hoon Han; Tae Woon Kim

    1997-01-01

    The author describes the kinds of efforts for the development of computerized risk management tool; (1) development of a risk monitor, Risk Monster, (2) improvement of McFarm (Missing Cutsets Finding Algorithm for Risk Monitor) and finally (3) development of reliability database management system, KwDBMan. Risk Monster supports for plant operators and maintenance schedulers to monitor plant risk and to avoid high peak risk by rearranging maintenance work schedule. Improved McFarm significantly improved calculation speed of Risk Monster for the cases of supporting system OOS (Out Of Service). KwDBMan manages event data, generic data and CCF (Common Cause Failure) data to support Risk Monster as well as PSA tool, KIRAP (KAERI Integrated Reliability Analysis Package)

  17. Failure detection system risk reduction assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguilar, Robert B. (Inventor); Huang, Zhaofeng (Inventor)

    2012-01-01

    A process includes determining a probability of a failure mode of a system being analyzed reaching a failure limit as a function of time to failure limit, determining a probability of a mitigation of the failure mode as a function of a time to failure limit, and quantifying a risk reduction based on the probability of the failure mode reaching the failure limit and the probability of the mitigation.

  18. POLLUTION PREVENTION RESEARCH ONGOING - EPA'S RISK REDUCTION ENGINEERING LABORATORY

    Science.gov (United States)

    The mission of the Risk Reduction Engineering Laboratory is to advance the understanding, development and application of engineering solutions for the prevention or reduction of risks from environmental contamination. This mission is accomplished through basic and applied researc...

  19. Adaptation of an HIV behavioural disinhibition risk reduction ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Adaptation of an HIV behavioural disinhibition risk reduction intervention for ... disinhibition risk reduction interventions for recently circumcised men for use in clinic ... medicine HIV prevention technologies into the male circumcision contexts.

  20. Risk indicators as a tool for risk control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oien, K.

    2001-01-01

    This paper presents a general methodology for the establishment of risk indicators that can be used as a tool for risk control during operation of offshore petroleum installations. The risk indicators established are based on the platform specific quantitative risk analysis (QRA). The general methodology is evaluated against comparable approaches both in offshore and nuclear industry. There are two distinct features of this methodology. The first is that it is truly risk-based with the intention of covering the total risk picture. The second is that the identification of the risk factors contributing most to the total risk is based on realistic changes of each factor assessed by the platform personnel, not a theoretically assumed change. The set of risk indicators for one specific installation is presented along with test results

  1. Bats: A new tool for AMS data reduction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wacker, L.; Christl, M.; Synal, H.-A.

    2010-01-01

    A data evaluation program was developed at ETH Zurich to meet the requirements of the new compact AMS systems MICADAS and TANDY in addition to the large EN-Tandem accelerator. The program, called 'BATS', is designed to automatically calculate standard and blank corrected results for measured samples. After almost one year of routine operation with the MICADAS C-14 system BATS has proven to be an easy to use data reduction tool that requires minimal user input. Here we present the fundamental principle and the algorithms used in BATS for standard-sized radiocarbon measurements.

  2. Bats: A new tool for AMS data reduction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wacker, L., E-mail: Wacker@phys.ethz.c [Ion Beam Physics, ETH Zurich (Switzerland); Christl, M.; Synal, H.-A. [Ion Beam Physics, ETH Zurich (Switzerland)

    2010-04-15

    A data evaluation program was developed at ETH Zurich to meet the requirements of the new compact AMS systems MICADAS and TANDY in addition to the large EN-Tandem accelerator. The program, called 'BATS', is designed to automatically calculate standard and blank corrected results for measured samples. After almost one year of routine operation with the MICADAS C-14 system BATS has proven to be an easy to use data reduction tool that requires minimal user input. Here we present the fundamental principle and the algorithms used in BATS for standard-sized radiocarbon measurements.

  3. Development of configuration risk management tool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Masuda, Takahiro; Doi, Eiji

    2003-01-01

    Tokyo Electric Power Company (referred to as TEPCO hereinafter), and other Japanese utilities as well, have been trying to improve the capacity factor of their Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) through modernization of Operation and Maintenance strategy. TEPCO intends to apply risk information to O and M field with maintaining or even improving both safety and production efficiency. Under these situations, TEPCO with some BWR utilities started to develop a Configuration Risk Management (CRM) tool that can estimate risk in various plant conditions due to configuration changes during outage. Moreover, we also intend to apply CRM to on-line maintenance (OLM) in the near future. This tool can calculate the Core Damage Frequency (CDF) according to given plant condition, such as SSCs availability, decay heat level and the inventory of coolant in both outage state and full-power operation. From deterministic viewpoint, whether certain configuration meet the related requirements of Technical Specifications. User-friendly interface is one of the important features of this tool because this enables the site engineers with little experience in PSA to quantify and utilize the risk information by this tool. (author)

  4. Optimising risk reduction: An expected utility approach for marginal risk reduction during regulatory decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Jiawei; Pollard, Simon; Kendall, Graham; Soane, Emma; Davies, Gareth

    2009-01-01

    In practice, risk and uncertainty are essentially unavoidable in many regulation processes. Regulators frequently face a risk-benefit trade-off since zero risk is neither practicable nor affordable. Although it is accepted that cost-benefit analysis is important in many scenarios of risk management, what role it should play in a decision process is still controversial. One criticism of cost-benefit analysis is that decision makers should consider marginal benefits and costs, not present ones, in their decision making. In this paper, we investigate the problem of regulatory decision making under risk by applying expected utility theory and present a new approach of cost-benefit analysis. Directly taking into consideration the reduction of the risks, this approach achieves marginal cost-benefit analysis. By applying this approach, the optimal regulatory decision that maximizes the marginal benefit of risk reduction can be considered. This provides a transparent and reasonable criterion for stakeholders involved in the regulatory activity. An example of evaluating seismic retrofitting alternatives is provided to demonstrate the potential of the proposed approach.

  5. Twitter as a Potential Disaster Risk Reduction Tool. Part III: Evaluating Variables that Promoted Regional Twitter Use for At-risk Populations During the 2013 Hattiesburg F4 Tornado.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooper, Guy Paul; Yeager, Violet; Burkle, Frederick M; Subbarao, Italo

    2015-06-29

    Study goals attempt to identify the variables most commonly associated with successful tweeted messages and determine which variables have the most influence in promoting exponential dissemination of information (viral spreading of the message) and trending (becoming popular) in the given disaster affected region. Part II describes the detailed extraction and triangulation filtration methodological approach to acquiring twitter data for the 2013 Hattiesburg Tornado. The data was then divided into two 48 hour windows before and after the tornado impact with a 2 hour pre-tornado buffer to capture tweets just prior to impact. Criteria-based analysis was completed for Tweets and users. The top 100 pre-Tornado and post-Tornado retweeted users were compared to establish the variability among the top retweeted users during the 4 day span.  Pre-Tornado variables that were correlated to higher retweeted rates include total user tweets (0.324), and total times message retweeted (0.530).  Post-Tornado variables that were correlated to higher retweeted rates include total hashtags in a retweet (0.538) and hashtags #Tornado (0.378) and #Hattiesburg (0.254). Overall hashtags usage significantly increased during the storm. Pre-storm there were 5,763 tweets with a hashtag and post-storm there was 13,598 using hashtags. Twitter's unique features allow it to be considered a unique social media tool applicable for emergency managers and public health officials for rapid and accurate two way communication.  Additionally, understanding how variables can be properly manipulated plays a key role in understanding how to use this social media platform for effective, accurate, and rapid mass information communication.

  6. Reduction of inequalities in health: assessing evidence-based tools

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shea Beverley

    2006-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The reduction of health inequalities is a focus of many national and international health organisations. The need for pragmatic evidence-based approaches has led to the development of a number of evidence-based equity initiatives. This paper describes a new program that focuses upon evidence- based tools, which are useful for policy initiatives that reduce inequities. Methods This paper is based on a presentation that was given at the "Regional Consultation on Policy Tools: Equity in Population Health Reports," held in Toronto, Canada in June 2002. Results Five assessment tools were presented. 1. A database of systematic reviews on the effects of educational, legal, social, and health interventions to reduce unfair inequalities is being established through the Cochrane and Campbell Collaborations. 2 Decision aids and shared decision making can be facilitated in disadvantaged groups by 'health coaches' to help people become better decision makers, negotiators, and navigators of the health system; a pilot study in Chile has provided proof of this concept. 3. The CIET Cycle: Combining adapted cluster survey techniques with qualitative methods, CIET's population based applications support evidence-based decision making at local and national levels. The CIET map generates maps directly from survey or routine institutional data, to be used as evidence-based decisions aids. Complex data can be displayed attractively, providing an important tool for studying and comparing health indicators among and between different populations. 4. The Ottawa Equity Gauge is applying the Global Equity Gauge Alliance framework to an industrialised country setting. 5 The Needs-Based Health Assessment Toolkit, established to assemble information on which clinical and health policy decisions can be based, is being expanded to ensure a focus on distribution and average health indicators. Conclusion Evidence-based planning tools have much to offer the

  7. Risk factors in limb reduction defects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stoll, C; Alembik, Y; Dott, B; Roth, M P

    1992-07-01

    Risk factors were studied in 123 children with limb reduction defects (LRD) from 118,265 consecutive births of known outcome during the period from 1979 to 1987 in the area which is covered by our registry of congenital malformations. For each case a control was studied. The LRD was localised and classified according to the EUROCAT guide for the description and classification of limb defects. The prevalence of LRD was 1.04 per thousand: 82.9% of the babies were liveborn, 13.0% were late spontaneous abortion or stillborn and termination was performed in 4.0% of the cases. The proportion of males was 0.55. The most common malformations in the 51.2% of children who had at least one other anomaly than LRD were associated cardiac, digestive and renal anomalies. The pregnancy with limb anomalies was more often complicated by oligohydramnios, polyhydramnios and threatened abortion but there were no differences in parental characteristics. However, 9.7% of marriages were consanguineous (P less than 0.01) and the incidence of LRD in first-degree relatives of the children with LRD was high. First-degree relatives also had more non-limb malformations than did those of controls.

  8. Modelling stillbirth mortality reduction with the Lives Saved Tool

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hannah Blencowe

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The worldwide burden of stillbirths is large, with an estimated 2.6 million babies stillborn in 2015 including 1.3 million dying during labour. The Every Newborn Action Plan set a stillbirth target of ≤12 per 1000 in all countries by 2030. Planning tools will be essential as countries set policy and plan investment to scale up interventions to meet this target. This paper summarises the approach taken for modelling the impact of scaling-up health interventions on stillbirths in the Lives Saved tool (LiST, and potential future refinements. Methods The specific application to stillbirths of the general method for modelling the impact of interventions in LiST is described. The evidence for the effectiveness of potential interventions to reduce stillbirths are reviewed and the assumptions of the affected fraction of stillbirths who could potentially benefit from these interventions are presented. The current assumptions and their effects on stillbirth reduction are described and potential future improvements discussed. Results High quality evidence are not available for all parameters in the LiST stillbirth model. Cause-specific mortality data is not available for stillbirths, therefore stillbirths are modelled in LiST using an attributable fraction approach by timing of stillbirths (antepartum/ intrapartum. Of 35 potential interventions to reduce stillbirths identified, eight interventions are currently modelled in LiST. These include childbirth care, induction for prolonged pregnancy, multiple micronutrient and balanced energy supplementation, malaria prevention and detection and management of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, diabetes and syphilis. For three of the interventions, childbirth care, detection and management of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, and diabetes the estimate of effectiveness is based on expert opinion through a Delphi process. Only for malaria is coverage information available, with coverage

  9. Standardised risk analysis as a communication tool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pluess, Ch.; Montanarini, M.; Bernauer, M.

    1998-01-01

    Full text of publication follows: several European countries require a risk analysis for the production, storage or transport a dangerous goods. This requirement imposes considerable administrative effort for some sectors of the industry. In order to minimize the effort of such studies, a generic risk analysis for an industrial sector proved to help. Standardised procedures can consequently be derived for efficient performance of the risk investigations. This procedure was successfully established in Switzerland for natural gas transmission lines and fossil fuel storage plants. The development process of the generic risk analysis involved an intense discussion between industry and authorities about methodology of assessment and the criteria of acceptance. This process finally led to scientific consistent modelling tools for risk analysis and to an improved communication from the industry to the authorities and the public. As a recent example, the Holland-Italy natural gas transmission pipeline is demonstrated, where this method was successfully employed. Although this pipeline traverses densely populated areas in Switzerland, using this established communication method, the risk problems could be solved without delaying the planning process. (authors)

  10. Forging process design for risk reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mao, Yongning

    In this dissertation, forging process design has been investigated with the primary concern on risk reduction. Different forged components have been studied, especially those ones that could cause catastrophic loss if failure occurs. As an effective modeling methodology, finite element analysis is applied extensively in this work. Three examples, titanium compressor disk, superalloy turbine disk, and titanium hip prosthesis, have been discussed to demonstrate this approach. Discrete defects such as hard alpha anomalies are known to cause disastrous failure if they are present in those stress critical components. In this research, hard-alpha inclusion movement during forging of titanium compressor disk is studied by finite element analysis. By combining the results from Finite Element Method (FEM), regression modeling and Monte Carlo simulation, it is shown that changing the forging path is able to mitigate the failure risk of the components during the service. The second example goes with a turbine disk made of superalloy IN 718. The effect of forging on microstructure is the main consideration in this study. Microstructure defines the as-forged disk properties. Considering specific forging conditions, preform has its own effect on the microstructure. Through a sensitivity study it is found that forging temperature and speed have significant influence on the microstructure. In order to choose the processing parameters to optimize the microstructure, the dependence of microstructure on die speed and temperature is thoroughly studied using design of numerical experiments. For various desired goals, optimal solutions are determined. The narrow processing window of titanium alloy makes the isothermal forging a preferred way to produce forged parts without forging defects. However, the cost of isothermal forging (dies at the same temperature as the workpiece) limits its wide application. In this research, it has been demonstrated that with proper process design, the die

  11. Disaster Risks Reduction for Extreme Natural Hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plag, H.; Jules-Plag, S.

    2013-12-01

    Mega disasters associated with extreme natural hazards have the potential to escalate the global sustainability crisis and put us close to the boundaries of the safe operating space for humanity. Floods and droughts are major threats that potentially could reach planetary extent, particularly through secondary economic and social impacts. Earthquakes and tsunamis frequently cause disasters that eventually could exceed the immediate coping capacity of the global economy, particularly since we have built mega cities in hazardous areas that are now ready to be harvested by natural hazards. Unfortunately, the more we learn to cope with the relatively frequent hazards (50 to 100 years events), the less we are worried about the low-probability, high-impact events (a few hundred and more years events). As a consequence, threats from the 500 years flood, drought, volcano eruption are not appropriately accounted for in disaster risk reduction (DRR) discussions. Extreme geohazards have occurred regularly throughout the past, but mostly did not cause major disasters because exposure of human assets to hazards was much lower in the past. The most extreme events that occurred during the last 2,000 years would today cause unparalleled damage on a global scale and could worsen the sustainability crisis. Simulation of these extreme hazards under present conditions can help to assess the disaster risk. Recent extreme earthquakes have illustrated the destruction they can inflict, both directly and indirectly through tsunamis. Large volcano eruptions have the potential to impact climate, anthropogenic infrastructure and resource supplies on global scale. During the last 2,000 years several large volcano eruptions occurred, which under today's conditions are associated with extreme disaster risk. The comparison of earthquakes and volcano eruptions indicates that large volcano eruptions are the low-probability geohazards with potentially the highest impact on our civilization

  12. Risk analysis as a decision tool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yadigaroglu, G.; Chakraborty, S.

    1985-01-01

    From 1983 - 1985 a lecture series entitled ''Risk-benefit analysis'' was held at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH), Zurich, in cooperation with the Central Department for the Safety of Nuclear Installations of the Swiss Federal Agency of Energy Economy. In that setting the value of risk-oriented evaluation models as a decision tool in safety questions was discussed on a broad basis. Experts of international reputation from the Federal Republic of Germany, France, Canada, the United States and Switzerland have contributed to report in this joint volume on the uses of such models. Following an introductory synopsis on risk analysis and risk assessment the book deals with practical examples in the fields of medicine, nuclear power, chemistry, transport and civil engineering. Particular attention is paid to the dialogue between analysts and decision makers taking into account the economic-technical aspects and social values. The recent chemical disaster in the Indian city of Bhopal again signals the necessity of such analyses. All the lectures were recorded individually. (orig./HP) [de

  13. Reduction of radiation exposure and image quality using dose reduction tool on computed tomography fluoroscopy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sakabe, Daisuke; Tochihara, Syuichi; Ono, Michiaki; Tokuda, Masaki; Kai, Noriyuki; Nakato, Kengo; Hashida, Masahiro; Funama, Yoshinori; Murazaki, Hiroo

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of our study was to measure the reduction rate of radiation dose and variability of image noise using the angular beam modulation (ABM) on computed tomography (CT) fluoroscopy. The Alderson-Rando phantom and the homemade phantom were used in our study. These phantoms were scanned at on-center and off-center positions at -12 cm along y-axis with and without ABM technique. Regarding the technique, the x-ray tube is turned off in a 100-degree angle sector at the center of 12 o'clock, 10 o'clock, and 2 o'clock positions during CT fluoroscopy. CT fluoroscopic images were obtained with tube voltages, 120 kV; tube current-time product per reconstructed image, 30 mAs; rotation time, 0.5 s/rot; slice thickness, 4.8 mm; and reconstruction kernel B30s in each scanning. After CT scanning, radiation exposure and image noise were measured and the image artifacts were evaluated with and without the technique. The reduction rate for radiation exposure was 75-80% with and without the technique at on-center position regardless of each angle position. In the case of the off-center position at -12 cm, the reduction rate was 50% with and without the technique. In contrast, image noise remained constant with and without the technique. Visual inspection for image artifacts almost have the same scores with and without the technique and no statistical significance was found in both techniques (p>0.05). ABM is an appropriate tool for reducing radiation exposure and maintaining image-noise and artifacts during CT fluoroscopy. (author)

  14. Building Capacity for Disaster Risk Reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    McAdoo, B. G.; Bryner, V.

    2013-05-01

    Disaster risk is acutely high in many emerging economies due to a combination of geophysical hazards and social and ecological vulnerabilities. The risk associated with natural hazards can be a critical component of a nation's wealth, hence knowledge of these hazards will affect foreign investment in these emergent economies. On the hazard side of the risk profile, geophysicists research the frequency and magnitude of the extant hazards. These geophysicists, both local and foreign, have a responsibility to communicate these risks in the public sphere - whether they are through the mass media, or in personal conversations. Because of this implicit responsibility, it is incumbent upon geophysicists to understand the overall risk, not just the hazards. When it comes to communicating these risks, local scientists are often more effective because they speak the language, understand the social context, and are often connected to various modes of communication unavailable to foreign researchers. Investment in multidisciplinary undergraduate education is critical, as is training of established local scientists in understanding the complexities of risk assessment as well as communicating these risks effectively to broad audiences. Onagawa, Japan. 2011.

  15. Risk Reduction Education: Voices from the Field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamorey, Suzanne

    2010-01-01

    Teens with disabilities need information about risk topics such as addiction, abuse, sex, and delinquency to make healthy choices as they participate in mainstream society. This article presents questionnaire-based information provided by special educators in secondary schools about their efforts, limitations, and needs in providing risk reduction…

  16. Low-cost risk reduction strategy for small workplaces: how can we spread good practices?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kogi, K

    2006-01-01

    Recent advances in health risk reduction approaches are examined based on inter-country networking experiences. A noteworthy progress is the wider application of low-cost improvements to risk reduction particularly in small enterprises and agriculture in both industrially developing and developed countries. This is helped by the readiness of managers and workers to implement these improvements despite many constraints. Typical improvements include mobile racks, simple workstation changes, screening hazards, better welfare facilities and teamwork arrangements. In view of the complex circumstances of work-related health risks, it is important to know whether a low-cost strategy can advance risk reduction practices effectively and what support measures are necessary. It is confirmed that the strategy can overcome related constraints through its advantages. Main advantages lie in (a) the facilitation of improved practices in multiple technical areas, (b) the strengthening of realistic stepwise risk reduction, and (c) the enhanced multiplier effects through training of local trainers. Action-oriented risk assessment tools, such as action checklists and low-cost improvement guides, can encourage risk-reducing measures adjusted to each local situation. It is suggested to spread the low-cost risk reduction strategy for improving small workplaces in diversified settings with the support of these locally tailored tools.

  17. Social intervention and risk reduction - indirect countermeasures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Higgins, N.A.; Morrey, M.

    1996-01-01

    An indirect countermeasure (IC) is an action which is intended to mitigate detrimental effects experienced by individuals or the community after an accident. Indirect countermeasures (ICs) achieve this, both by averting radiation risks arising from the accident, but by removing or reducing other risks and sources of stress or harm to which the community may be subject. ICs naturally fall into two categories: social action ICs, which range from introducing compensation payments to providing information centres; and risk reducing ICs which mitigate risks to which the population might be exposed, such as radon. By including a consideration of ICs in an assessment of the optimal response, it is likely that a decision maker will become aware of a greater range of harms and benefits that might result from the application of a countermeasure. The decision maker will then be in a better position to judge the appropriateness of any action. (author)

  18. Mission Risk Reduction Regulatory Change Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scroggins, Sharon

    2007-01-01

    NASA Headquarters Environmental Management Division supports NASA's mission to pioneer the future in space exploration, scientific discovery, and aeronautics research by integrating environmental considerations into programs and projects early-on, thereby proactively reducing NASA's exposure to institutional, programmatic and operational risk. As part of this effort, NASA established the Principal Center for Regulatory Risk Analysis and Communication (RRAC PC) as a resource for detecting, analyzing, and communicating environmental regulatory risks to the NASA stakeholder community. The RRAC PC focuses on detecting emerging environmental regulations and other operational change drivers that may pose risks to NASA programs and facilities, and effectively communicating the potential risks. For example, regulatory change may restrict how and where certain activities or operations may be conducted. Regulatory change can also directly affect the ability to use certain materials by mandating a production phase-out or restricting usage applications of certain materials. Regulatory change can result in significant adverse impacts to NASA programs and facilities due to NASA's stringent performance requirements for materials and components related to human-rated space vehicles. Even if a regulation does not directly affect NASA operations, U.S. and international regulations can pose program risks indirectly through requirements levied on manufacturers and vendors of components and materials. For example, manufacturers can change their formulations to comply with new regulatory requirements. Such changes can require time-consuming and costly requalification certification for use in human spaceflight programs. The RRAC PC has implemented a system for proactively managing regulatory change to minimize potential adverse impacts to NASA programs and facilities. This presentation highlights the process utilized by the RRACPC to communicate regulatory change and the associated

  19. Climate change, uncertainty and investment in flood risk reduction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pol, van der T.D.

    2015-01-01

    Economic analysis of flood risk management strategies has become more complex due to climate change. This thesis investigates the impact of climate change on investment in flood risk reduction, and applies optimisation methods to support identification of optimal flood risk management strategies.

  20. Disaster management and risk reduction in South Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Bruwer, A

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The 2015 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction concludes that the mortality and economic loss associated with extensive risks (minor but recurrent disaster risks) in low- and middle-income countries are trending up. In the last decade...

  1. 75 FR 76345 - Risk Reduction Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-12-08

    ... application of engineering and management principles, criteria, and techniques to optimize safety. Like risk.../deficiencies, using statistical models that compare the railroad's performance to the industry average or an... and implementation of its RRP utilizing valid mathematical tests or methods that conform to the...

  2. [Day clinic, a gateway towards risk reduction].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ben Nifla, Viviane; Celli, Philippe; Samba, Hélène; Vincent, Cécile

    2018-01-01

    The addictology day clinic at Fernand-Widal hospital in Paris caters mainly for patients suffering from alcohol dependence. The aim is to consolidate the withdrawal which has taken place, to help reduce risks and harm and to support people waiting for follow-up care. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  3. Household flood risk reduction in the Czech Republic

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Duží, B.; Vikhrov, Dmytro; Kelman, I.; Stojanov, R.; Jakubínský, J.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 20, č. 4 (2015), s. 499-504 ISSN 1381-2386 Institutional support: PRVOUK-P23 Keywords : flood risk reduction * household adaptation * Czech Republic Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 3.085, year: 2015

  4. Household flood risk reduction in the Czech Republic

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Duží, B.; Vikhrov, Dmytro; Kelman, I.; Stojanov, R.; Jakubínský, J.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 20, č. 4 (2015), s. 499-504 ISSN 1381-2386 Institutional support: RVO:67985998 Keywords : flood risk reduction * household adaptation * Czech Republic Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 3.085, year: 2015

  5. Climate change, uncertainty and investment in flood risk reduction

    OpenAIRE

    Pol, van der, T.D.

    2015-01-01

    Economic analysis of flood risk management strategies has become more complex due to climate change. This thesis investigates the impact of climate change on investment in flood risk reduction, and applies optimisation methods to support identification of optimal flood risk management strategies. Chapter 2 provides an overview of cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of flood risk management strategies under climate change uncertainty and new information. CBA is applied to determine optimal dike height...

  6. Tools for estimating VMT reductions from built environment changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-06-01

    Built environment characteristics are associated with walking, bicycling, transit use, and vehicle : miles traveled (VMT). Developing built environments supportive of walking, bicycling, and transit use : can help meet state VMT reduction goals. But ...

  7. RISK COMMUNICATION IN ACTION: THE TOOLS OF MESSAGE MAPPING

    Science.gov (United States)

    Risk Communication in Action: The Tools of Message Mapping, is a workbook designed to guide risk communicators in crisis situations. The first part of this workbook will review general guidelines for risk communication. The second part will focus on one of the most robust tools o...

  8. Development of an attrition risk prediction tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fowler, John; Norrie, Peter

    To review lecturers' and students' perceptions of the factors that may lead to attrition from pre-registration nursing and midwifery programmes and to identify ways to reduce the impact of such factors on the student's experience. Comparable attrition rates for nursing and midwifery students across various universities are difficult to monitor accurately; however, estimates that there is approximately a 25% national attrition rate are not uncommon. The financial and human implications of this are significant and worthy of investigation. A study was carried out in one medium-sized UK school of nursing and midwifery, aimed at identifying perceived factors associated with attrition and retention. Thirty-five lecturers were interviewed individually; 605 students completed a questionnaire, and of these, 10 were individually interviewed. Attrition data kept by the student service department were reviewed. Data were collected over an 18-month period in 2007-2008. Regression analysis of the student data identified eight significant predictors. Four of these were 'positive' factors in that they aided student retention and four were 'negative' in that they were associated with students' thoughts of resigning. Student attrition and retention is multifactorial, and, as such, needs to be managed holistically. One aspect of this management could be an attrition risk prediction tool.

  9. Hydrogen risk reduction in Nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Movahed, M.A.; Travis, J.R.

    1999-01-01

    In case of a severe accident in a nuclear power plant with core melt and hydrogen production, the hydrogen risk is one of the main concerns. It may jeopardize the containment integrity due to violent deflagration that can lead to DDT (Deflagration Detonation Transient) or even detonation of proper hydrogen mitigation means are not available. The design of the EPR (European Pressurized water Reactor) Hydrogen mitigation and control system is based on the lumped parameter code WAVCO and the 3D code GASFLOW. The concept consists of recombiners and igniters to cope with all scenarios including those without steam. The system has been checked to avoid DDT by the 7λ criteria that's implemented in GASFLOW. Future analysis could deal with determining dynamic pressure loads, if appropriate, and some sensitivity studies to check the hydrogen control measures with respect to different source locations and mass flow rates. Also a conditional criterion for determining the likelihood of fast deflagration should be developed. (author)

  10. Dairy farmer use of price risk management tools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolf, C A

    2012-07-01

    Volatility in milk and feed prices can adversely affect dairy farm profitability. Many risk management tools are available for use by US dairy farmers. This research uses surveys of Michigan dairy farmers to examine the extent to which price risk management tools have been used, the farm and operator characteristics that explain the use of these tools, and reasons farmers have not used these tools. A 1999 survey was used to benchmark the degree to which dairy producers had used milk and feed price risk management instruments to compare with 2011 use rates. The surveys collected information about the farm characteristics such as herd size, farmland operated, business organization, and solvency position. Farm operator characteristics collected include age, education, and experience. Dairy farmer use of both milk and feed price risk management tools increased between 1999 and 2011. In 2011, herd size was positively related to the use of milk price risk management tools, whereas farms organized as a sole proprietorship were less likely to use them. Also in 2011, herd size and land operated were positively related to feed price risk management tools, whereas operator age was negatively related. Reasons why farmers had not used price risk management tools included basis risk, cost, lack of management time, cooperative membership, and lack of understanding. Conclusions include the need for educational programming on price risk management tools and a broader exploration of dairy farm risk management programs. Copyright © 2012 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Development of funding project risk management tools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-11-01

    Funding project risk management is a process for identifying, assessing, and prioritizing project funding risks. To plan to : minimize or eliminate the impact of negative events, one must identify what projects have higher risk to respond to potentia...

  12. [Enteral nutrition: reduction in the contamination risk].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montemerlo, H; Menéndez, A M; Marcenac, F; Floridia, J; Esteban, L; Barbaricca, M

    1996-01-01

    Enteral nutrition is used as a routine therapy in patients with caloric-protein malnutrition, severe dysphagia, major burns, intestinal resection, and enterocutaneous fistulae, as long as a portion of the digestive tract still has an active absorptive function. The administration takes place by means of surgical (ostomies) or non-surgical (nasogastric) tubes. In our country, a significant number of hospitalized patients with various diseases receive this type of nutrition. Given that the colonization of the digestive tract by hospital flora is the first step towards developing intra-hospital infections, the contamination implies serious risks. The objective of this study was to study the most appropriate conditions for the manufacturing, storage and administration of the mixture of nutrients of enteral nutrition, to guarantee nutrition with a lower contamination risk. This study was conducted by the Unit of Nutritional Assistance of the Mater Dei Clinic, by means of bacteriological controls, from January 1991 to December 1992, and in 1993 in which the work systematics were reviewed. The study was prospective, and those solutions whose bacteriological counts were lower than 100.000 colony forming units (CFU), and which showed an absence of enteropathological micro-organisms, were considered acceptable, and those solutions which had a bacteriological count greater than or equal to 100.000 CFU and or the presence of enteropathological micro-organisms, were considered unacceptable. During the first period, "usual working conditions", we analyzed the infra-structure, the personnel, the constituents, and the apparatus used in the manufacturing, for which 36 samples were studied at t0 (moment of preparation). Afterwards, in the second period "special working conditions", we analyzed the manufacturing procedures, the storage and the administration of 103 solutions, corresponding to 36 patients, taking samples at t0 and t24 (after 24 hours of preparing). In the first phase

  13. Suicide Risk Screening Tools and the Youth Population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patterson, Sharon

    2016-08-01

    The use of suicide risk screening tools is a critical component of a comprehensive approach to suicide risk assessment. Since nurses frequently spend more time with patients than any other healthcare professional, they are in key positions to detect and prevent suicidal behavior in youth. To inform nurses about suicide risk screening tools for the youth population. Suicide risk screening tools are research-based standardized instruments that are used to identify people who may be at risk for suicide. A literature search was performed using the Athabasca University Library Resource, the databases of the Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, ScienceDirect, and Google Scholar. Nurses are cautioned to utilize suicide risk screening tools as only part of the suicide risk assessment in youth populations and avoid the danger of relying on tools that may result in a blind application of evidence to the detriment of clinical experience and judgement. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  14. ASTARTE: Assessment Strategy and Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baptista, M. A.; Yalciner, A. C.; Canals, M.

    2014-12-01

    Tsunamis are low frequency but high impact natural disasters. In 2004, the Boxing Day tsunami killed hundreds of thousands of people from many nations along the coastlines of the Indian Ocean. Tsunami run-up exceeded 35 m. Seven years later, and in spite of some of the best warning technologies and levels of preparedness in the world, the Tohoku-Oki tsunami in Japan dramatically showed the limitations of scientific knowledge on tsunami sources, coastal impacts and mitigation measures. The experience from Japan raised serious questions on how to improve the resilience of coastal communities, to upgrade the performance of coastal defenses, to adopt a better risk management, and also on the strategies and priorities for the reconstruction of damaged coastal areas. Societal resilience requires the reinforcement of capabilities to manage and reduce risk at national and local scales.ASTARTE (Assessment STrategy And Risk for Tsunami in Europe), a 36-month FP7 project, aims to develop a comprehensive strategy to mitigate tsunami impact in this region. To achieve this goal, an interdisciplinary consortium has been assembled. It includes all CTWPs of NEAM and expert institutions across Europe and worldwide. ASTARTE will improve i) basic knowledge of tsunami generation and recurrence going beyond simple catalogues, with novel empirical data and new statistical analyses for assessing long-term recurrence and hazards of large events in sensitive areas of NEAM, ii) numerical techniques for tsunami simulation, with focus on real-time codes and novel statistical emulation approaches, and iii) methods for assessment of hazard, vulnerability, and risk. ASTARTE will also provide i) guidelines for tsunami Eurocodes, ii) better tools for forecast and warning for CTWPs and NTWCs, and iii) guidelines for decision makers to increase sustainability and resilience of coastal communities. In summary, ASTARTE will develop basic scientific and technical elements allowing for a significant

  15. Existential risks: exploring a robust risk reduction strategy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jebari, Karim

    2015-06-01

    A small but growing number of studies have aimed to understand, assess and reduce existential risks, or risks that threaten the continued existence of mankind. However, most attention has been focused on known and tangible risks. This paper proposes a heuristic for reducing the risk of black swan extinction events. These events are, as the name suggests, stochastic and unforeseen when they happen. Decision theory based on a fixed model of possible outcomes cannot properly deal with this kind of event. Neither can probabilistic risk analysis. This paper will argue that the approach that is referred to as engineering safety could be applied to reducing the risk from black swan extinction events. It will also propose a conceptual sketch of how such a strategy may be implemented: isolated, self-sufficient, and continuously manned underground refuges. Some characteristics of such refuges are also described, in particular the psychosocial aspects. Furthermore, it is argued that this implementation of the engineering safety strategy safety barriers would be effective and plausible and could reduce the risk of an extinction event in a wide range of possible (known and unknown) scenarios. Considering the staggering opportunity cost of an existential catastrophe, such strategies ought to be explored more vigorously.

  16. Communication about melanoma and risk reduction after melanoma diagnosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez, Vivian M; Berwick, Marianne; Hay, Jennifer L

    2017-12-01

    Melanoma patients are advised to perform regular risk-reduction practices, including sun protection as well as skin self-examinations (SSEs) and physician-led examinations. Melanoma-specific communication regarding family risk and screening may promote such behaviors. To this end, associations between patients' melanoma-specific communication and risk reduction were examined. Melanoma patients (N = 169) drawn from a population-based cancer registry reported their current risk-reduction practices, perceived risk of future melanoma, and communication with physicians and relatives about melanoma risk and screening. Patients were, on average, 56 years old and 6.7 years' post diagnosis; 51% were male, 93% reported "fair/very fair" skin color, 75% completed at least some college, and 22% reported a family history of melanoma. Patients reported varying levels of regular (always/nearly always) sun protection: sunscreen use (79%), shade seeking (60%), hat use (54%), and long-sleeve shirt use (30%). Only 28% performed thorough SSE regularly, whereas 92% reported undergoing physician-led skin examinations within the past year. Participants who were female, younger, and had a higher perceived risk of future melanoma were more likely to report past communication. In adjusted analyses, communication remained uniquely associated with increased sunscreen use and SSE. Encouraging melanoma patients to have a more active role in discussions concerning melanoma risk and screening with relatives and physicians alike may be a useful strategy to promote 2 key risk-reduction practices post melanoma diagnosis and treatment. Future research is needed to identify additional strategies to improve comprehensive risk reduction in long-term melanoma patients. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  17. Risk Jyouhou Navi (risk information navigator). Web tool for fostering of risk literacy. Set of data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mitsui, Seiichiro

    2003-06-01

    In addition to the conventional public understanding activities, Risk communication study team of Japan Nuclear Cycle Development Institutes (JNC) Tokai Works has started practical studies to promote risk communication with its local communities. Since its establishment in 2001, Risk communication study team has conducted analyses of already available results of public attitude surveys, case studies of domestic and overseas risk communication activities, and development of risk communication tools. A web tool for fostering of risk literacy 'Risk Jyouhou Navi (risk information navigator in English)', was developed as a web content for the official home page of Techno Kouryuu Kan Ricotti (Techno Community Square Ricotti in English)'. The objectives of this content are to provide risk information for public and to provide an electronic platform for promoting risk communication with the local community. To develop 'Risk Jyouhou Navi', the following concepts were considered. 1) To create public interest in risks in daily lives and in global risks. 2) To provide risk knowledge and information. 3) To support risk communication activities in Techno community square ricotti. (author)

  18. RISK IDENTIFICATION TOOLS – POLISH MSMES COMPANIES PRACTICES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iwona Gorzeń-Mitka

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to present risk identification tools in Polish micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs. Risk identification is a key element of the risk management process in companies. Correctly fitting risk identification tools affect the accuracy of management decisions. The result of research is to identify the leading risk identification tools used by MSMEs. The study was conducted in 2010-2012 using a mixed survey-monographic method and questionnaires. The qualitative data were obtained during the study.

  19. On Commitments and Other Uncertainty Reduction Tools in Joint Action

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael John

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we evaluate the proposal that a central function of commitments within joint action is to reduce various kinds of uncertainty, and that this accounts for the prevalence of commitments in joint action. While this idea is prima facie attractive, we argue that it faces two serious problems. First, commitments can only reduce uncertainty if they are credible, and accounting for the credibility of commitments proves not to be straightforward. Second, there are many other ways in which uncertainty is commonly reduced within joint actions, which raises the possibility that commitments may be superfluous. Nevertheless, we argue that the existence of these alternative uncertainty reduction processes does not make commitments superfluous after all but, rather, helps to explain how commitments may contribute in various ways to uncertainty reduction.

  20. Waiting for Disasters: A Risk Reduction Assessment of Technological Disasters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rovins, Jane; Winningham, Sam

    2010-05-01

    This session provides a risk reduction/mitigation assessment of natural hazards causation of technological disasters and possible solution. People use technology in an attempt to not only control their environment but nature itself in order to make them feel safe and productive. Most strategies for managing hazards followed a traditional planning model i.e. study the problem, identify and implement a solution, and move on to the next problem. This approach is often viewed as static model and risk reduction is more of an upward, positive, linear trend. However, technological disasters do not allow risk reduction action to neatly fit this upward, positive, linear trend with actual or potential threats to the environment and society. There are different types of technological disasters, including industrial accidents; pipeline ruptures; accidents at power, water and heat supply systems and other lines of communication; sudden collapse of buildings and mines; air crashes; shipwrecks; automobile and railway accidents to name a few. Natural factors can play an essential role in triggering or magnifying technological disasters. They can result from the direct destruction of given technical objects by a hazardous natural process such as the destruction of an atomic power plant or chemical plant due to an earthquake. Other examples would include the destruction of communications or infrastructure systems by heavy snowfalls, strong winds, avalanches. Events in the past ten years clearly demonstrate that natural disasters and the technological disasters that accompany them are not problems that can be solved in isolation and risk reduction can play an important part. Risk reduction was designed to head off the continuing rising financial and structural tolls from disasters. All Hazard Risk Reduction planning was supposed to include not only natural, but technological, and human-made disasters as well. The subsequent disaster risk reduction (DRR) indicators were to provide the

  1. Microenterprise development interventions for sexual risk reduction: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, Rosa R; Lee, Ramon; Thirumurthy, Harsha; Muessig, Kathryn E; Tucker, Joseph D

    2013-11-01

    Comprehensive interventions that address both individual and structural determinants associated with HIV/STI risk are gaining increasing attention over the past decade. Microenterprise development offers an appealing model for HIV prevention by addressing poverty and gender equality. This study systematically reviewed the effects of microenterprise development interventions on HIV/STI incidence and sexual risk behaviors. Microenterprise development was defined as developing small business capacity among individuals to alleviate poverty. Seven eligible research studies representing five interventions were identified and included in this review. All of the studies targeted women, and three focused on sex workers. None measured biomarker outcomes. All three sex worker studies showed significant reduction in sexual risk behaviors when compared to the control group. Non-sex worker studies showed limited changes in sexual risk behavior. This review indicates the potential utility of microenterprise development in HIV risk reduction programs. More research is needed to determine how microenterprise development can be effectively incorporated in comprehensive HIV control strategies.

  2. Develop risk-based procurement management tools for SMEs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Staal, Anne; Hagelaar, Geoffrey; Walhof, Gert; Holman, Richard

    2016-01-01

    This paper provides guidance for developing risk-based management tools to improve the procurement (purchasing) performance of SMEs. Extant academic literature only offers little support on developing such tools and does not consider the wide variety of SMEs. The paper defines a procurement tool for

  3. Selection of portable tools for use in a size reduction facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hawley, L.N.

    1986-07-01

    A range of portable tools are identified for development and eventual use within a remote operations facility for the size reduction of plutonium contaminated materials. The process of selection defines the work to be performed within the facility and matches this to the general categories of suitable tools. Specific commercial tools are then selected or, where none exists, proposals are made for the development of special tools. (author)

  4. Children capacity in disaster risk reduction: A call for action

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leila Mohammadinia

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Disasters have various physical, psychological, social and economical effects on all age group, particularly children who are more vulnerable than adults. In the aftermath of disasters, children like pregnant women, elderly and handicaps are special group with special needs. This is because they are at greater risk based on their specific physiological and psychological characteristics. Moreover,, according to the Sendai document, children need more attention in Disaster Risk Reduction (DRRprograms design, policies implementation with a proactive approach in Disaster Risk Reduction (1. In the Sendai document it is emphasized that policies regarding disaster risk reduction, cognition and risk perception about the risk property should be considered based upon the hazards and the environment in terms of vulnerability, capacity and exposure (2.Hyogo framework for action was also already have been focused on child priority on the legislation program (3. Accordingly, it is necessary to involve children in disaster risk reduction programs actively in order to overcome their needs and their problems (4. As children are more affected groups in various aspects of disasters in most countries, their potential utilization, the conditions and space should be provided based on laws, national policies, training and capacity. Although after disaster children required particular needs and attention(5-6, they should be considered as an active group who could participate in DRR program and help their family and also the community.(4, 7 Some evidences suggest on value of children team working for community preparedness. Iran had a successful experience for using adolescence capacity as a pillar in activation of early warning; including notification announced while observing the rising sea levels for local community in order to reduce the risk of flood disaster at a local area in the North of Iran. According to the Hyogo and the Sendai documents, it seems that using

  5. Effect of smoking reduction on lung cancer risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Godtfredsen, Nina S; Prescott, Eva; Osler, Merete

    2005-01-01

    Many smokers are unable or unwilling to completely quit smoking. A proposed means of harm reduction is to reduce the number of cigarettes smoked per day. However, it is not clear whether this strategy decreases the risk for tobacco-related diseases.......Many smokers are unable or unwilling to completely quit smoking. A proposed means of harm reduction is to reduce the number of cigarettes smoked per day. However, it is not clear whether this strategy decreases the risk for tobacco-related diseases....

  6. Duplicate laboratory test reduction using a clinical decision support tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Procop, Gary W; Yerian, Lisa M; Wyllie, Robert; Harrison, A Marc; Kottke-Marchant, Kandice

    2014-05-01

    Duplicate laboratory tests that are unwarranted increase unnecessary phlebotomy, which contributes to iatrogenic anemia, decreased patient satisfaction, and increased health care costs. We employed a clinical decision support tool (CDST) to block unnecessary duplicate test orders during the computerized physician order entry (CPOE) process. We assessed laboratory cost savings after 2 years and searched for untoward patient events associated with this intervention. This CDST blocked 11,790 unnecessary duplicate test orders in these 2 years, which resulted in a cost savings of $183,586. There were no untoward effects reported associated with this intervention. The movement to CPOE affords real-time interaction between the laboratory and the physician through CDSTs that signal duplicate orders. These interactions save health care dollars and should also increase patient satisfaction and well-being.

  7. The efficacy of serostatus disclosure for HIV Transmission risk reduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Connell, Ann A; Reed, Sandra J; Serovich, Julianne A

    2015-02-01

    Interventions to assist HIV+ persons in disclosing their serostatus to sexual partners can play an important role in curbing rates of HIV transmission among men who have sex with men (MSM). Based on the methods of Pinkerton and Galletly (AIDS Behav 11:698-705, 2007), we develop a mathematical probability model for evaluating effectiveness of serostatus disclosure in reducing the risk of HIV transmission and extend the model to examine the impact of serosorting. In baseline data from 164 HIV+ MSM participating in a randomized controlled trial of a disclosure intervention, disclosure is associated with a 45.0 % reduction in the risk of HIV transmission. Accounting for serosorting, a 61.2 % reduction in risk due to disclosure was observed in serodisconcordant couples. The reduction in risk for seroconcordant couples was 38.4 %. Evidence provided supports the value of serostatus disclosure as a risk reduction strategy in HIV+ MSM. Interventions to increase serostatus disclosure and that address serosorting behaviors are needed.

  8. Analysis of Alternatives for Risk Assessment Methodologies and Tools

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nachtigal, Noel M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). System Analytics; Fruetel, Julia A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Gleason, Nathaniel J. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Helms, Jovana [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Imbro, Dennis Raymond [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Sumner, Matthew C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis

    2013-10-01

    The purpose of this document is to provide a basic overview and understanding of risk assessment methodologies and tools from the literature and to assess the suitability of these methodologies and tools for cyber risk assessment. Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) performed this review in support of risk modeling activities performed for the Stakeholder Engagement and Cyber Infrastructure Resilience (SECIR) division of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Office of Cybersecurity and Communications (CS&C). The set of methodologies and tools covered in this document is not intended to be exhaustive; instead, it focuses on those that are commonly used in the risk assessment community. The classification of methodologies and tools was performed by a group of analysts with experience in risk analysis and cybersecurity, and the resulting analysis of alternatives has been tailored to address the needs of a cyber risk assessment.

  9. Measurement of biofilm thickness. An effective Legionella risk assessment tool

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Foret, Christophe [BKG France, Arnage (France); Martemianov, Serguei [Poitiers Univ. (FR). Lab. of Thermal Study (LET); Moscow Univ. (Russian Federation). Frumkin Inst. of Physical Chemistry and Electrochemistry; Hater, Wolfgang [BK Giulini GmbH, Duesseldorf (Germany); Merlet, Nicole; Chaussec, Guenole; Tribollet, Bernard

    2010-02-15

    The best way to prevent the risk of bacterial growth in water systems is to monitor and control the microorganisms (biofilm) attached to pipe walls. Three years of laboratory research led two Centre National de Recherche Scientifique (French National Center for Scientific Research) teams (UMR 6008 and UPR 15) to develop a tool designed to determine the average biofilm thickness. The average biofilm thickness measurements carried out on pilot plants fed with natural water were sufficiently accurate and sensitive to monitor the formation and development of biofilm in a water system and to determine the efficiency of the applied treatments. The implementation of appropriate treatments (type and dose of the treatment product) leads to a significant reduction in or even complete removal of the porous layer on the material surface. A reduction of the attached biomass, measured by the sensor, is connected to a decrease in the density of the bacterial attached to the material (viable flora in the plate count agar environment). (orig.)

  10. Visualization tools for insurance risk processes

    OpenAIRE

    Krzysztof Burnecki; Rafal Weron

    2006-01-01

    This chapter develops on risk processes which, perhaps, are most suitable for computer visualization of all insurance objects. At the same time, risk processes are basic instruments for any non-life actuary – they are vital for calculating the amount of loss that an insurance company may incur.

  11. Common pitfalls in statistical analysis: Absolute risk reduction, relative risk reduction, and number needed to treat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ranganathan, Priya; Pramesh, C. S.; Aggarwal, Rakesh

    2016-01-01

    In the previous article in this series on common pitfalls in statistical analysis, we looked at the difference between risk and odds. Risk, which refers to the probability of occurrence of an event or outcome, can be defined in absolute or relative terms. Understanding what these measures represent is essential for the accurate interpretation of study results. PMID:26952180

  12. Effect of smoking reduction on lung cancer risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Godtfredsen, Nina S; Prescott, Eva; Osler, Merete

    2005-01-01

    Many smokers are unable or unwilling to completely quit smoking. A proposed means of harm reduction is to reduce the number of cigarettes smoked per day. However, it is not clear whether this strategy decreases the risk for tobacco-related diseases....

  13. Measuring the Value of Mortality Risk Reductions in Turkey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tekeşin, Cem; Ara, Shihomi

    2014-01-01

    The willingness to pay (WTP) for mortality risk reduction from four causes (lung cancer, other type of cancer, respiratory disease, traffic accident) are estimated using random parameter logit model with data from choice experiment for three regions in Turkey. The value of statistical life (VSL) estimated for Afsin-Elbistan, Kutahya-Tavsanli, Ankara and the pooled case are found as 0.56, 0.35, 0.46 and 0.49 million Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) adjusted 2012 US dollars (USD). Different types of risk cause different VSL estimates and we found the lung cancer premium of 213% against traffic accident. The effects of one-year-delayed provision of risk-reduction service are the reduction of WTP by 482 TL ($318 in PPP adjusted USD) per person on average, and the disutility from status-quo (zero risk reduction) against alternative is found to be 891 TL ($589 in PPP adjusted USD) per person on average. Senior discounts of VSL are partially determined by status-quo preference and the amount of discount decreases once the status-quo bias is removed. The peak VSL is found to be for the age group 30–39 and the average VSL for the age group is 0.8 million PPP adjusted USD). Turkey’s compliance to European Union (EU) air quality standard will cause welfare gains of total 373 million PPP adjusted USD for our study areas in terms of reduced number of premature mortality. PMID:25000150

  14. Measuring the Value of Mortality Risk Reductions in Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cem Tekeşin

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The willingness to pay (WTP for mortality risk reduction from four causes (lung cancer, other type of cancer, respiratory disease, traffic accident are estimated using random parameter logit model with data from choice experiment for three regions in Turkey. The value of statistical life (VSL estimated for Afsin-Elbistan, Kutahya-Tavsanli, Ankara and the pooled case are found as 0.56, 0.35, 0.46 and 0.49 million Purchasing Power Parity (PPP adjusted 2012 US dollars (USD. Different types of risk cause different VSL estimates and we found the lung cancer premium of 213% against traffic accident. The effects of one-year-delayed provision of risk-reduction service are the reduction of WTP by 482 TL ($318 in PPP adjusted USD per person on average, and the disutility from status-quo (zero risk reduction against alternative is found to be 891 TL ($589 in PPP adjusted USD per person on average. Senior discounts of VSL are partially determined by status-quo preference and the amount of discount decreases once the status-quo bias is removed. The peak VSL is found to be for the age group 30–39 and the average VSL for the age group is 0.8 million PPP adjusted USD. Turkey’s compliance to European Union (EU air quality standard will cause welfare gains of total 373 million PPP adjusted USD for our study areas in terms of reduced number of premature mortality.

  15. Investigating the risk reduction potential of disaster insurance across Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Surminski, Swenja; Hudson, Paul

    2017-01-01

    The notion that insurance can play a significant role in risk reduction has recently gained increasing attention in the wake of rising losses from natural disasters. While this notion is accepted in theory, we notice that, in practice, little is known about if and how insurance promotes efforts to

  16. Sexual risk reduction among Zambian couples | Jones | SAHARA-J ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Zambia has over 1 million HIV infections nationwide and an urban prevalence rate of 23%. This study compared the impact of male involvement in multiple and single session risk reduction interventions among inconsistent condom users in Zambia and the role of serostatus among HIV-seropositive and serodiscordant ...

  17. Risk assessment: tools, techniques, and their applications

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Ostrom, Lee T; Wilhelmsen, Cheryl A

    2012-01-01

    .... The central task of the risk assessor is predicting the success of a project. This includes isolating the entire spectrum of adverse events that can derail a project or threaten the health and safety of individuals, organizations, and the environment...

  18. Competitive kinetics as a tool to determine rate constants for reduction of ferrylmyoglobin by food components

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jongberg, Sisse; Lund, Marianne Nissen; Pattison, David I.

    2016-01-01

    Competitive kinetics were applied as a tool to determine apparent rate constants for the reduction of hypervalent haem pigment ferrylmyoglobin (MbFe(IV)=O) by proteins and phenols in aqueous solution of pH 7.4 and I = 1.0 at 25 °C. Reduction of MbFe(IV)=O by a myofibrillar protein isolate (MPI) f...

  19. Draught risk index tool for building energy simulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vorre, Mette Havgaard; Jensen, Rasmus Lund; Nielsen, Peter V.

    2014-01-01

    Flow elements combined with a building energy simulation tool can be used to indicate areas and periods when there is a risk of draught in a room. The study tests this concept by making a tool for post-processing of data from building energy simulations. The objective is to show indications...... of draught risk during a whole year, giving building designers a tool for the design stage of a building. The tool uses simple one-at-a-time calculations of flow elements and assesses the uncertainty of the result by counting the number of overlapping flow elements. The calculation time is low, making...... it usable in the early design stage to optimise the building layout. The tool provides an overview of the general draught pattern over a period, e.g. a whole year, and of how often there is a draught risk....

  20. Long-Term International Space Station (ISS) Risk Reduction Activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fodroci, M. P.; Gafka, G. K.; Lutomski, M. G.; Maher, J. S.

    2012-01-01

    As the assembly of the ISS nears completion, it is worthwhile to step back and review some of the actions pursued by the Program in recent years to reduce risk and enhance the safety and health of ISS crewmembers, visitors, and space flight participants. While the initial ISS requirements and design were intended to provide the best practicable levels of safety, it is always possible to further reduce risk - given the determination, commitment, and resources to do so. The following is a summary of some of the steps taken by the ISS Program Manager, by our International Partners, by hardware and software designers, by operational specialists, and by safety personnel to continuously enhance the safety of the ISS, and to reduce risk to all crewmembers. While years of work went into the development of ISS requirements, there are many things associated with risk reduction in a Program like the ISS that can only be learned through actual operational experience. These risk reduction activities can be divided into roughly three categories: Areas that were initially noncompliant which have subsequently been brought into compliance or near compliance (i.e., Micrometeoroid and Orbital Debris [MMOD] protection, acoustics) Areas where initial design requirements were eventually considered inadequate and were subsequently augmented (i.e., Toxicity Hazard Level- 4 [THL] materials, emergency procedures, emergency equipment, control of drag-throughs) Areas where risks were initially underestimated, and have subsequently been addressed through additional mitigation (i.e., Extravehicular Activity [EVA] sharp edges, plasma shock hazards) Due to the hard work and cooperation of many parties working together across the span of more than a decade, the ISS is now a safer and healthier environment for our crew, in many cases exceeding the risk reduction targets inherent in the intent of the original design. It will provide a safe and stable platform for utilization and discovery for years

  1. Risk Informed Design Using Integrated Vehicle Rapid Assessment Tools

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — A successful proof of concept was performed in FY 2012 integrating the Envision tool for parametric estimates of vehicle mass and the Rapid Response Risk Assessment...

  2. New Tools and Methods for Assessing Risk-Management Strategies

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Vendlinski, Terry P; Munro, Allen; Chung, Gregory K; De la Cruz, Girlie C; Pizzini, Quentin A; Bewley, William L; Stuart, Gale; Baker, Eva L

    2004-01-01

    .... The Decision Analysis Tool (DAT) allowed subjects to use Expected Value and Multi-attribute Utility Theories to evaluate the risks and benefits of various acquisition alternatives, and allowed us to monitor the process subjects used...

  3. Updating risk prediction tools: a case study in prostate cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ankerst, Donna P; Koniarski, Tim; Liang, Yuanyuan; Leach, Robin J; Feng, Ziding; Sanda, Martin G; Partin, Alan W; Chan, Daniel W; Kagan, Jacob; Sokoll, Lori; Wei, John T; Thompson, Ian M

    2012-01-01

    Online risk prediction tools for common cancers are now easily accessible and widely used by patients and doctors for informed decision-making concerning screening and diagnosis. A practical problem is as cancer research moves forward and new biomarkers and risk factors are discovered, there is a need to update the risk algorithms to include them. Typically, the new markers and risk factors cannot be retrospectively measured on the same study participants used to develop the original prediction tool, necessitating the merging of a separate study of different participants, which may be much smaller in sample size and of a different design. Validation of the updated tool on a third independent data set is warranted before the updated tool can go online. This article reports on the application of Bayes rule for updating risk prediction tools to include a set of biomarkers measured in an external study to the original study used to develop the risk prediction tool. The procedure is illustrated in the context of updating the online Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial Risk Calculator to incorporate the new markers %freePSA and [-2]proPSA measured on an external case-control study performed in Texas, U.S.. Recent state-of-the art methods in validation of risk prediction tools and evaluation of the improvement of updated to original tools are implemented using an external validation set provided by the U.S. Early Detection Research Network. Copyright © 2012 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  4. Chemical Risk Assessment Screening Tool of a Global Chemical Company

    OpenAIRE

    Evelyn Tjoe-Nij; Christophe Rochin; Nathalie Berne; Alessandro Sassi; Antoine Leplay

    2018-01-01

    Background: This paper describes a simple-to-use and reliable screening tool called Critical Task Exposure Screening (CTES), developed by a chemical company. The tool assesses if the exposure to a chemical for a task is likely to be within acceptable levels. Methods: CTES is a Microsoft Excel tool, where the inhalation risk score is calculated by relating the exposure estimate to the corresponding occupational exposure limit (OEL) or occupational exposure band (OEB). The inhalation exposure i...

  5. Constructing a holistic approach to disaster risk reduction: the significance of focusing on vulnerability reduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palliyaguru, Roshani; Amaratunga, Dilanthi; Baldry, David

    2014-01-01

    As a result of the increase in natural disaster losses, policy-makers, practitioners, and members of the research community around the world are seeking effective and efficient means of overcoming or minimising them. Although various theoretical constructs are beneficial to understanding the disaster phenomenon and the means of minimising losses, the disaster risk management process becomes less effective if theory and practice are set apart from one another. Consequently, this paper seeks to establish a relationship between two theoretical constructs, 'disaster risk reduction (DRR)' and 'vulnerability reduction', and to develop a holistic approach to DRR with particular reference to improving its applicability in practical settings. It is based on a literature review and on an overall understanding gained through two case studies of post-disaster infrastructure reconstruction projects in Sri Lanka and three expert interviews in Sri Lanka and the United Kingdom. © 2014 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2014.

  6. Assessment of aircraft risk reduction at Pantex Plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin, Y.T.; Hedtke, R.; Fike, D.; Diniz, J.

    1996-01-01

    The possibility of an aircraft crashing into the Department of Energy's (DOE) Pantex plant facility has been of concern in risk assessments. In response to public concerns, and in an effort to reduce risks associated with overflights of Pantex, several changes to navigational aids at Amarillo International Airport have been implemented. For over one year, a radar airspace monitor and recording system has been connected to the airport surveillance radar at Amarillo to record the flight paths, aircraft types, and traffic density of aircraft in the vicinity of the Pantex plant. The data has provided a better understanding of the overflight risk at Pantex as well as a means to measure the effectiveness of risk reduction efforts

  7. Using risk based tools in emergency response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dixon, B.W.; Ferns, K.G.

    1987-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) techniques are used by the nuclear industry to model the potential response of a reactor subjected to unusual conditions. The knowledge contained in these models can aid in emergency response decision making. This paper presents requirements for a PRA based emergency response support system to date. A brief discussion of published work provides background for a detailed description of recent developments. A rapid deep assessment capability for specific portions of full plant models is presented. The program uses a screening rule base to control search space expansion in a combinational algorithm

  8. Levelized cost-risk reduction prioritization of waste disposal options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilkinson, V.K.; Young, J.M.

    1992-01-01

    The prioritization of solid waste disposal options in terms of reduced risk to workers, the public, and the environment has recently generated considerable governmental and public interest. In this paper we address the development of a methodology to establish priorities for waste disposal options, such as incineration, landfills, long-term storage, waste minimization, etc. The study is one result of an overall project to develop methodologies for Probabilistic Risk Assessments (PRAs) of non-reactor nuclear facilities for the US Department of Energy. Option preferences are based on a levelized cost-risk reduction analysis. Option rankings are developed as functions of disposal option cost and timing, relative long- and short-term risks, and possible accident scenarios. We examine the annual costs and risks for each option over a large number of years. Risk, in this paper, is defined in terms of annual fatalities (both prompt and long-term) and environmental restoration costs that might result from either an accidental release or long-term exposure to both plant workers and the public near the site or facility. We use event timing to weigh both costs and risks; near-term costs and risks are discounted less than future expenditures and fatalities. This technique levels the timing of cash flows and benefits by converting future costs and benefits to present value costs and benefits. We give an example Levelized Cost-Benefit Analysis of incinerator location options to demonstrate the methodology and required data

  9. Eighteenth annual risk reduction engineering laboratory research symposium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1992-01-01

    The Eighteenth Annual Risk Reduction Engineering Laboratory Research Symposium was held in Cincinnati, Ohio, April 14-16, 1992. The purpose of this Symposium was to present the latest significant research findings from ongoing and recently completed projects funded by the Risk Reduction Engineering Laboratory (RREL). These Proceedings are organized into two sections. Sessions A and B, which contain extended abstracts of the paper presentations. A list of poster displays is also included. Subjects include remedial action, treatment, and control technologies for waste disposal, landfill liner and cover systems, underground storage tanks, and demonstration and development of innovative/alternative treatment technologies for hazardous waste. Alternative technology subjects include thermal destruction of hazardous wastes, field evaluations, existing treatment options, emerging treatment processes, waste minimization, and biosystems for hazardous waste destruction

  10. Social Geology and Landslide Disaster Risk Reduction in Sri Lanka

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jayasingha P

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available AbstractLandslide disaster risk reduction is presently a challenging task facing by Sri Lankangeologists. Increasing trend of population growth in Sri Lanka has adversely affected thestability of central highland due to various human activities. Among them establishment ofhuman settlements and change in land use pattern have become a serious issue in triggeringland instabilities in central highland of the country. National Building Research Oragnisationwhich is the main focal point in land slide disaster risk reduction in Sri Lanka has takenvaluable and timely needed actions including preparation of landslide hazard zonation maps,early warnings and mitigations. Though the landslide is a geological phenomenon, it is highlyinteracted with human societies. Hence managing the issues arising with the landslideoccurrence should be addressed with a sociological approach. This new approach is known asSocio Geological approach which is discussed here.Key words: Landslide, Geology, Socio Geology, Social Geologist

  11. Baseline risk and marginal willingness to pay for health risk reduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerking, Shelby; Adamowicz, Wiktor; Dickie, Mark; Veronesi, Marcella

    2017-01-01

    Empirical results presented in this paper suggest that parents' marginal willingness to pay (MWTP) for a reduction in morbidity risk from heart disease is inversely related to baseline risk (i.e., the amount of risk initially faced) both for themselves and for their children. For instance, a 40% reduction from the mean of baseline risk results in an increase in MWTP by 70% or more. Thus, estimates of monetary benefits of public programs to reduce heart disease risk would be understated if the standard practice is followed of evaluating MWTP at initial risk levels and then multiplying this value by the number of cases avoided. Estimates are supported by: (1) unique quantitative information on perceptions of the risk of getting heart disease that allow baseline risk to be defined at an individual level and (2) improved econometric procedures to control for well-known difficulties associated with stated preference data.

  12. Household flood risk reduction in the Czech Republic

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Duží, Barbora; Vikhrov, Dmytro; Kelman, I.; Stojanov, Robert; Jakubínský, Jiří

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 18, č. 8 (2015), s. 1-6 ISSN 1381-2386 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) EE2.4.31.0056; GA MŠk(CZ) LD13032; GA MŠk(CZ) LD13033 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : Bečva River Basin * Czech Republic * flood risk reduction * floods * household adaptation * household coping Subject RIV: AO - Sociology, Demography Impact factor: 3.085, year: 2015

  13. Workplace injuries and risk reduction practices in Malaysia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ali, Roslinah; Shaharudin, Rafiza; Omar, Azahadi; Yusoff, Fadhli

    2012-01-01

    This study on workplace injuries and risk reduction practices was part of the Malaysia National Health Morbidity Survey III (NHMS III) conducted in 2006. This cross-sectional population-based survey was conducted to determine the incidence of workplaces injuries and assess the magnitude of some important risk reduction practices among workers. Data were gathered through face-to-face household interviews using a pre-coded questionnaire. Of the 22 880 eligible respondents, 88·2% (20 180) responded. The incidence rate for injuries at the workplace was 4·9 per 100 (95% CI: 4·6-5·2). The overall proportion of workers who had received occupational safety and health (OSH) training before or within 1 month of starting work was 33·6%. Among respondents who perceived that personal protective equipment (PPE) was required at their workplace, only 38·9% (95% CI: 37·8-39·4) were provided with it by their employers. Further studies are urgently needed to identify reasons for and management of the low uptake of risk reduction practices. This issue needs to be addressed to ensure the safety and health of our working population.

  14. Indigenous knowledge for disaster risk reduction: An African perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nnamdi G. Iloka

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Indigenous knowledge is valuable knowledge that has helped local communities all over the world survive for generations. This knowledge originates from the interaction between members of the community and the environment in which they live. Although much has been written about indigenous knowledge, its documentation in the area of disaster risk reduction and climate change in Africa has been very limited. The wealth of this knowledge has not been well-recognised in the disaster risk reduction field, as policy-makers still rely on mitigation strategies based on scientific knowledge. Colonialism and lack of proper documentation of indigenous knowledge are some of the contributing factors to this. Ignoring the importance of understanding adaptive strategies of the local people has led to failed projects. Understanding how local people in Africa have managed to survive and adapt for generations, before the arrival of Western education, may be the key to developing sustainable policies to mitigate future challenges. Literature used in this article, obtained from the books, papers and publications of various experts in the fields of disaster risk reduction, climate change, indigenous knowledge and adaptation, highlight the need for more interest to be shown in indigenous knowledge, especially in the developing country context. This would lead to better strategies which originate from the community level but would aim for overall sustainable development in Africa.

  15. Risk based decision tool for space exploration missions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meshkat, Leila; Cornford, Steve; Moran, Terrence

    2003-01-01

    This paper presents an approach and corresponding tool to assess and analyze the risks involved in a mission during the pre-phase A design process. This approach is based on creating a risk template for each subsystem expert involved in the mission design process and defining appropriate interactions between the templates.

  16. The Lives Saved Tool (LiST) as a model for diarrhea mortality reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    Background Diarrhea is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality among children under five years of age. The Lives Saved Tool (LiST) is a model used to calculate deaths averted or lives saved by past interventions and for the purposes of program planning when costly and time consuming impact studies are not possible. Discussion LiST models the relationship between coverage of interventions and outputs, such as stunting, diarrhea incidence and diarrhea mortality. Each intervention directly prevents a proportion of diarrhea deaths such that the effect size of the intervention is multiplied by coverage to calculate lives saved. That is, the maximum effect size could be achieved at 100% coverage, but at 50% coverage only 50% of possible deaths are prevented. Diarrhea mortality is one of the most complex causes of death to be modeled. The complexity is driven by the combination of direct prevention and treatment interventions as well as interventions that operate indirectly via the reduction in risk factors, such as stunting and wasting. Published evidence is used to quantify the effect sizes for each direct and indirect relationship. Several studies have compared measured changes in mortality to LiST estimates of mortality change looking at different sets of interventions in different countries. While comparison work has generally found good agreement between the LiST estimates and measured mortality reduction, where data availability is weak, the model is less likely to produce accurate results. LiST can be used as a component of program evaluation, but should be coupled with more complete information on inputs, processes and outputs, not just outcomes and impact. Summary LiST is an effective tool for modeling diarrhea mortality and can be a useful alternative to large and expensive mortality impact studies. Predicting the impact of interventions or comparing the impact of more than one intervention without having to wait for the results of large and expensive

  17. Promoting energy efficiency investments with risk management decision tools

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jackson, Jerry

    2010-01-01

    This paper reviews current capital budgeting practices and their impact on energy efficiency investments. The prevalent use of short payback 'rule-of-thumb' requirements to screen efficiency projects for risk is shown to bias investment choices towards 'sure bet' investments bypassing many profitable efficiency investment options. A risk management investment strategy is presented as an alternative to risk avoidance practices applied with payback thresholds. The financial industry risk management tool Value-at-Risk is described and extended to provide an Energy-Budgets-at-Risk or EBaR risk management analysis to convey more accurate energy efficiency investment risk information. The paper concludes with recommendations to expand the use of Value-at-Risk-type energy efficiency analysis.

  18. Cognitive mapping tools: review and risk management needs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Matthew D; Bostrom, Ann; Bridges, Todd; Linkov, Igor

    2012-08-01

    Risk managers are increasingly interested in incorporating stakeholder beliefs and other human factors into the planning process. Effective risk assessment and management requires understanding perceptions and beliefs of involved stakeholders, and how these beliefs give rise to actions that influence risk management decisions. Formal analyses of risk manager and stakeholder cognitions represent an important first step. Techniques for diagramming stakeholder mental models provide one tool for risk managers to better understand stakeholder beliefs and perceptions concerning risk, and to leverage this new understanding in developing risk management strategies. This article reviews three methodologies for assessing and diagramming stakeholder mental models--decision-analysis-based mental modeling, concept mapping, and semantic web analysis--and assesses them with regard to their ability to address risk manager needs. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

  19. PROJECT MANAGER SKILLS, RISK MANAGEMENT TOOLS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladut Iacob

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Although the projects are different from each other there are many common things that contribute to their success. Looked overall, the success of a project is the result of a multitude of factors. This person is considered the "engine" of the project. The man who makes the action set for the achievement of project objectives to be brought to an end. The project manager must have the technical knowledge and economic diverse. He should be able to choose a team and lead. You must be tenacious, combative, to know how to communicate both within the team and beyond. In a word, the project manager must have an impressive stock of knowledge, skills and abilities and appreciate as Peter Drucker, to "exist for the organization. To be its servant. Any management who forget this will only cause damage to the organization. "This study will focus on highlighting the skills of the project manager and their role in managing difficult situations or risk.

  20. Evaluating the risk-reduction benefits of wind energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brower, M.C. [Brower & Company, Andover, MA (United States); Bell, K. [Convergence Research, Seattle, WA (United States); Bernow, S.; Duckworth, M. [Tellus Inst., Boston, MA (United States); Spinney P. [Charles River Associates, Boston, MA (United States)

    1996-12-31

    This paper presents preliminary results of a study to evaluate the risk-reduction benefits of wind power for a case study utility system using decision analysis techniques. The costs and risks of two alternative decisions-whether to build a 400 MW gas-fired combined cycle plant or a 1600 MW wind plant in 2003-were compared through computer simulations as fuel prices, environmental regulatory costs, wind and conventional power plant availability, and load growth were allowed to vary. Three different market scenarios were examined: traditional regulation, a short-term power pool, and fixed-price contracts of varying duration. The study concludes that, from the perspective of ratepayers, wind energy provides a net levelized risk-reduction benefit of $3.4 to $7.8/MWh under traditional regulation, and less in the other scenarios. From the perspective of the utility plant owners, wind provides a significant risk benefit in the unregulated market scenarios but none in a regulated market. The methodology and findings should help inform utility resource planning and industry restructuring efforts. 2 figs., 3 tabs.

  1. Cancer risk in aluminum reduction plant workers (Canada)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Spinelli, J.J.; Demers, P.A.; Le, N.D.; Friesen, M.D.; Lorenzi, M.F.; Fang, R.; Gallagher, R.P. [British Columbia Cancer Agency, Vancouver, BC (Canada)

    2006-09-15

    A 14-year update to a previously published historical cohort study of aluminum reduction plant workers was conducted. All men with three or more years at an aluminum reduction plant in British Columbia (BC), Canada between the years 1954 and 1997 were included; a total of 6,423 workers. A total of 662 men were diagnosed with cancer, representing a 400% increase from the original study. Standardized mortality and incidence ratios were used to compare the cancer mortality and incidence of the cohort to that of the BC population. Poisson regression was used to examine risk by cumulative exposure to coal tar pitch volatiles (CTPV) measured as benzene soluble materials (BSM) and benzo(a)pyrene (BaP). The risk for bladder cancer was related to cumulative exposure to CTPV measured as BSM and BaP (p trends < 0.001), and the risk for stomach cancer was related to exposure measured by BaP (p trend BaP < 0.05). The risks for lung cancer (p trend < 0.001), non-Hodgkin lymphoma (p trend < 0.001), and kidney cancer (p trend < 0.01) also increased with increasing exposure, although the overall rates were similar to that of the general population. Analysis of the joint effect of smoking and CTPV exposure on cancer showed the observed dose-response relationships to be independent of smoking.

  2. The Differential Effects of Social Media Sites for Promoting Cancer Risk Reduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lauckner, Carolyn; Whitten, Pamela

    2016-09-01

    Social media are potentially valuable tools for disseminating cancer education messages, but the differential effects of various sites on persuasive outcomes are unknown. In an effort to inform future health promotion, this research tested the effects of Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, and blogs for delivering a cancer risk reduction message. Using an experimental design, participants were randomly placed in several conditions that delivered the same message but with different forms of social media. Effects on comprehension and attitudes were examined, as they are important variables in the behavior change process. YouTube led to higher comprehension and stronger attitudes toward cancer risk reduction than Twitter, but there were no differences between other sites. Additionally, YouTube led to stronger attitudes toward cancer risk reduction as compared to Facebook, but not any other sites. These results demonstrate that, even if the message is kept constant, the form of social media used to deliver content can have an effect on persuasive outcomes. More research is needed to determine the mechanisms behind the differences found, however. Altogether, this line of research is valuable for any individuals seeking to use social media for health promotion purposes and could have direct implications for the development of cancer risk reduction campaigns.

  3. An Integrative Review of Pediatric Fall Risk Assessment Tools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DiGerolamo, Kimberly; Davis, Katherine Finn

    Patient fall prevention begins with accurate risk assessment. However, sustained improvements in prevention and quality of care include use of validated fall risk assessment tools (FRATs). The goal of FRATs is to identify patients at highest risk. Adult FRATs are often borrowed from to create tools for pediatric patients. Though factors associated with pediatric falls in the hospital setting are similar to those in adults, such as mobility, medication use, and cognitive impairment, adult FRATs and the factors associated with them do not adequately assess risk in children. Articles were limited to English language, ages 0-21years, and publish date 2006-2015. The search yielded 22 articles. Ten were excluded as the population was primarily adult or lacked discussion of a FRAT. Critical appraisal and findings were synthesized using the Johns Hopkins Nursing evidence appraisal system. Twelve articles relevant to fall prevention in the pediatric hospital setting that discussed fall risk assessment and use of a FRAT were reviewed. Comparison between and accuracy of FRATs is challenged when different classifications, definitions, risk stratification, and inclusion criteria are used. Though there are several pediatric FRATs published in the literature, none have been found to be reliable and valid across institutions and diverse populations. This integrative review highlights the importance of choosing a FRAT based on an institution's identified risk factors and validating the tool for one's own patient population as well as using the tool in conjunction with nursing clinical judgment to guide interventions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Merging Cultural Heritage Assessments with Risk Reduction and Disaster Recovery

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bojsen, Ann Kristina Mikkelsen

    heritage. These limitations serve as motivation for the introduction of the ACTOR framework (Assessing Cultural Threats, Obstacles and Resilience) ACTOR aims at merging cultural heritage assessments with risk reduction and disaster recovery, and provide disaster management students with a learning......Abstract There is a general professional consensus that vulnerability and risk assessments are crucial tasks in any serious attempt to substantially reduce disaster losses and enhance the reconciliation or recovery in the post event phase. However, cultural heritage is often considered...... as an overarching element that should be assessed, rather than a permanent key component of the assessments. Research in disaster management noticeably illustrates how cultural heritage is increasingly at risk from disasters caused by natural and human-made hazards, as well as the effects of climate change. Still...

  5. THE FINANCIAL TOOLS FOR COVER POLITICAL RISKS IN PROJECT FINANCE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Naumenkova

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available This article examines the risk-mitigation in public-private partnership. Today Ukraine is ranked as "CRT-5 country" and has high levels of economic and political risk. Political risk grows steadily because of financial and political instability in Ukraine. We conclude that investors continue to rank political risk as a key obstacle to long-term investing. The tools for cover many types of political risks such as war, terrorism, civil disturbance, breach of contract, export or operating license cancellation, currency inconvertibility and transfer restriction, change of laws and regulations etc. are described by authors. We focus on the advantages of World Bank Group Guarantee products. The guarantee instruments of the three WBG institutions for cover political risks under different circumstances are the most suitable for public-private partnership in Ukraine. In this article the political risk-mitigation with IBRD Partial Risk Guarantee put forward by authors for PPP projects in Ukraine.

  6. Treatment options for hypertriglyceridemia: from risk reduction to pancreatitis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berglund, Lars; Brunzell, John D.; Goldberg, Anne C.; Goldberg, Ira J.; Stalenhoef, Anton

    2013-01-01

    While there has been considerable focus on the role and treatment of LDL cholesterol levels, a definitive role of triglycerides in the management of cardiovascular disease has been uncertain. Notably, with increasing triglyceride levels, there is a parallel increase in cholesterol levels carried by triglyceride-rich lipoproteins, which has prompted interest in the use of non-HDL cholesterol levels as a tool guiding interventions. Recent studies have provided evidence for an independent role of triglyceride levels as a cardiovascular risk factor, and recently, an Endocrine Society guideline was published for treatment of hypertriglyceridemia. In contrast to the relative uncertainty regarding triglycerides and cardiovascular disease, a role of very high triglyceride levels as a risk factor for pancreatitis has been well known. The present paper summarizes the underlying evidence for a risk role for triglyceride levels in cardiovascular disease and pancreatitis, current treatment recommendations and areas of future research. PMID:24840268

  7. Assessment of reduction in perception of nuclear risk related to perception of environmental risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boemer, Veronica Araujo; Aquino, Afonso Rodrigues de

    2009-01-01

    This work presents a bibliographic research accomplished to evaluate the matter of reduction in risk perception, on people in general, that nuclear energy can show, for generation of electric power, face to perception of risk associated to environmental questions, as the global warming, from greenhouse effect, addressing the matter to the relevance of public acceptance for the development of new technologies. (author)

  8. Incentivising flood risk adaptation through risk based insurance premiums : Trade-offs between affordability and risk reduction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hudson, Paul F.; Botzen, W.J.W.; Feyen, L.; Aerts, Jeroen C.J.H.

    2016-01-01

    The financial incentives offered by the risk-based pricing of insurance can stimulate policyholder adaptation to flood risk while potentially conflicting with affordability. We examine the trade-off between risk reduction and affordability in a model of public-private flood insurance in France and

  9. Breast Cancer Incidence and Risk Reduction in the Hispanic Population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Power, Eric J; Chin, Megan L; Haq, Mohamed M

    2018-02-26

    Breast cancer is the most common non-skin cancer amongst women worldwide and is the fifth leading cause of cancer-related mortality overall. It is also the foremost reason for cancer-related mortality in Hispanic females in the United States (US). Although the current incidence of breast cancer is significantly lower in Hispanics compared to that of non-Hispanic Whites (NHW) and Blacks, (91.9, 128.1, and 124.3 per 100,000, respectively, annually), this may increase if Hispanics develop similar lifestyle behaviors to other American women, in categories such as weight management, age at first birth, number of children, and breastfeeding habits. Stage-for-stage mortality for Hispanics is similar to NHWs, but the mortality rate is not declining as rapidly in this ethnic group. Hispanic women share many of the same risk factors for developing breast cancer as NHWs and Blacks. This suggests that many of the risk reduction strategies used in other racial populations may also benefit this group. Providing education about breast cancer and implementing risk reduction strategies in culturally-aware environments could help keep incidence low and reduce cancer-related mortality. Since Hispanics are the largest minority group in the US, this could have a significant impact on the incidence and mortality nationally.

  10. Earth observation for disaster risk reduction in Pakistan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rafiq, L.

    2012-01-01

    This thesis investigates the role of Earth Observation (EO) for disaster risk reduction for Pakistan. It demonstrates that significant improvements are possible through the utilization of EO data for natural disaster risk reduction activities in Pakistan. In this thesis, a multi hazard approach is proposed in order to identify vulnerability and risk at district level in Pakistan. In particular, a methodology for ranking hazards, vulnerabilities and risks based on Delphi methods is developed. This method is implemented and the results are mapped for four selected hazards i.e., earthquakes, floods, cyclones and droughts. Based on the final risk rankings, the potential of EO is explored with a focus on vulnerability assessment through detailed analysis of two case studies i.e.; Flood and Cyclone/Tsunami. The study also reviews and evaluates the institutional framework of the National Disaster Management Authority of Pakistan in order to identify existing gaps and address them in view of modern technology being used globally. Results reveal that these gaps are mainly related to policies, coordination and communication of different stakeholders at the national level. The work also reviews the available Early Warning System (EWS) in Pakistan and particularly its usage during disasters. Within the context of EWS, multi-sensor satellite data have been utilized for the analysis of structure of an Arabian Sea tropical Cyclone. Results of this focal study provide useful information for operational analysis and forecasting as well as for designing disaster mitigation measures. This information may also play a major role in the development of cyclone warning strategies in the future. (author)

  11. Reduction of Systemic Risk by Means of Pigouvian Taxation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zlatić, Vinko; Gabbi, Giampaolo; Abraham, Hrvoje

    2015-01-01

    We analyze the possibility of reduction of systemic risk in financial markets through Pigouvian taxation of financial institutions, which is used to support the rescue fund. We introduce the concept of the cascade risk with a clear operational definition as a subclass and a network related measure of the systemic risk. Using financial networks constructed from real Italian money market data and using realistic parameters, we show that the cascade risk can be substantially reduced by a small rate of taxation and by means of a simple strategy of the money transfer from the rescue fund to interbanking market subjects. Furthermore, we show that while negative effects on the return on investment (ROI) are direct and certain, an overall positive effect on risk adjusted return on investments (ROIRA) is visible. Please note that the taxation is introduced as a monetary/regulatory, not as a _scal measure, as the term could suggest. The rescue fund is implemented in a form of a common reserve fund.

  12. Reduction of Systemic Risk by Means of Pigouvian Taxation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vinko Zlatić

    Full Text Available We analyze the possibility of reduction of systemic risk in financial markets through Pigouvian taxation of financial institutions, which is used to support the rescue fund. We introduce the concept of the cascade risk with a clear operational definition as a subclass and a network related measure of the systemic risk. Using financial networks constructed from real Italian money market data and using realistic parameters, we show that the cascade risk can be substantially reduced by a small rate of taxation and by means of a simple strategy of the money transfer from the rescue fund to interbanking market subjects. Furthermore, we show that while negative effects on the return on investment (ROI are direct and certain, an overall positive effect on risk adjusted return on investments (ROIRA is visible. Please note that the taxation is introduced as a monetary/regulatory, not as a _scal measure, as the term could suggest. The rescue fund is implemented in a form of a common reserve fund.

  13. Valuing Drinking Water Risk Reductions Using the Contingent Valuation Method: A Methodological Study of Risks from THM and Giardia (1986)

    Science.gov (United States)

    This study develops contingent valuation methods for measuring the benefits of mortality and morbidity drinking water risk reductions. The major effort was devoted to developing and testing a survey instrument to value low-level risk reductions.

  14. HIV Risk Reduction Among Young Adult Chronic Psychiatric Patients

    Science.gov (United States)

    1990-08-28

    emotional language to convey information on risk reduction. Common myths concerning transmission are presented and the audience is specifically told that...current study include: ’Can contact with semen (cum) from the penis result In AIDS?’,’ Can a person get AIDS from vaginal fluids in a woman’s vagina ? Can...hands. It doesn’t like being exposed to sunlight or air. Female: The AIDS virus lives inside the human body, in the blood, in a woman’s vagina and

  15. The Influence of Tool Texture on Friction and Lubrication in Strip Reduction Testing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sulaiman, Mohd Hafis Bin; Christiansen, Peter; Bay, Niels Oluf

    2017-01-01

    While texturing of workpiece surfaces to promote lubrication in metal forming has beenapplied for several decades, tool surface texturing is rather new. In the present paper, tool texturing is studied as a method to prevent galling. A strip reduction test was conducted with tools provided...... with shallow, longitudinal pockets oriented perpendicular to the sliding direction. The pockets had small angles to the workpiece surface and the distance between them were varied. The experiments reveal that the distance between pockets should be larger than the pocket width, thereby creating a topography...... similar to flat table mountains to avoid mechanical interlocking in the valleys; otherwise, an increase in drawing load and pick-up on the tools are observed. The textured tool surface lowers friction and improves lubrication performance, provided that the distance between pockets is 2–4 times larger than...

  16. MURMoT. Design and Application of Microbial Uranium Reduction Monitoring Tools

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Loeffler, Frank E. [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States)

    2014-12-31

    Uranium (U) contamination in the subsurface is a major remediation challenge at many DOE sites. Traditional site remedies present enormous costs to DOE; hence, enhanced bioremediation technologies (i.e., biostimulation and bioaugmentation) combined with monitoring efforts are being considered as cost-effective corrective actions to address subsurface contamination. This research effort improved understanding of the microbial U reduction process and developed new tools for monitoring microbial activities. Application of these tools will promote science-based site management decisions that achieve contaminant detoxification, plume control, and long-term stewardship in the most efficient manner. The overarching hypothesis was that the design, validation and application of a suite of new molecular and biogeochemical tools advance process understanding, and improve environmental monitoring regimes to assess and predict in situ U immobilization. Accomplishments: This project (i) advanced nucleic acid-based approaches to elucidate the presence, abundance, dynamics, spatial distribution, and activity of metal- and radionuclide-detoxifying bacteria; (ii) developed proteomics workflows for detection of metal reduction biomarker proteins in laboratory cultures and contaminated site groundwater; (iii) developed and demonstrated the utility of U isotopic fractionation using high precision mass spectrometry to quantify U(VI) reduction for a range of reduction mechanisms and environmental conditions; and (iv) validated the new tools using field samples from U-contaminated IFRC sites, and demonstrated their prognostic and diagnostic capabilities in guiding decision making for environmental remediation and long-term site stewardship.

  17. Consequent use of IT tools as a driver for cost reduction and quality improvements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hein, Stefan; Rapp, Roberto; Feustel, Andreas

    2013-10-01

    The semiconductor industry drives a lot of efforts in the field of cost reductions and quality improvements. The consequent use of IT tools is one possibility to support these goals. With the extensions of its 150mm Fab to 200mm Robert Bosch increased the systematic use of data analysis and Advanced Process Control (APC).

  18. Risk D and D Rapid Prototype: Scenario Documentation and Analysis Tool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Unwin, Stephen D.; Seiple, Timothy E.

    2009-01-01

    then provide a basis for identification of the optimal sequences. Under this project PNNL has developed a rapid prototype tool to support the systematic analysis of risks associated with project cost variances, schedule variances, and H and S impacts. Oracle's Primavera Risk Analysis(reg s ign) Tool (known formerly, and hereafter referred to as Pertmaster), is risk analysis software used across the DOE complex to analyze project risks. Pertmaster focuses exclusively on risks associated with project schedule and cost variances, where schedule data are supplemented with assessments of schedule/budget uncertainties and risks at the level of individual activities. Monte Carlo methods are then used to integrate activity level uncertainties/risks to produce the aggregate project-level schedule/budget projections. In this project we have produced a custom risk register that interfaces with Pertmaster, incorporating not only project risk data, but also H and S risk information. A risk register is a documentation structure in which hypothetical adverse scenarios are defined along with their prospective impacts (schedule, cost, H and S), likelihoods of occurrence, protective measures, and risk-reduction opportunities. This document outlines our approach to integration of project and H and S risk data, as well as providing instructions for the installation and use of the tool we have developed.

  19. Risk reduction for nonmelanoma skin cancer with childhood sunscreen use

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stern, R.S.; Weinstein, M.C.; Baker, S.G.

    1986-01-01

    Exposure to ultraviolet radiation is the principle cause of basal and squamous cell carcinomas of the skin, which are the most frequent tumors occurring in white residents of the United States. Using a mathematical model based on epidemiologic data, we quantified the potential benefits of using a sunscreen with a sun protective factor of 15 and estimate that regular use of such a sunscreen during the first 18 years of life would reduce the lifetime incidence of these tumors by 78%. Additional benefits of sunscreen use during childhood include reduced risk of sunburn, retarding the pace of skin aging, and possible reduction in melanoma risk. We recommend that pediatricians encourage sunscreen use and sun avoidance as a regular part of pediatric preventive health care

  20. Risk management: A tool for improving nuclear power plant performance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-04-01

    This technical document on risk management as a tool for improving nuclear power plant (NPP) operations is part of an ongoing project on management of NPP operations in a competitive environment. The overall objective of this project is to assist the management of operating organizations and NPPs in identifying and implementing appropriate measures to remain competitive in a rapidly changing business environment. Other reports developed through this project have identified overall strategies and techniques that NPP operating organization managers can use to succeed in more competitive energy markets. For example, in IAEA-TECDOC-1123, Strategies for Competitive Nuclear Power Plants, one of the most important strategies identified was integrated risk management. This publication provides a recommended structure for risk management along with examples of how NPP operating organizations are using this tool to help them integrate safety, operational and economic related risks in a changing business environment

  1. Chemical Risk Assessment Screening Tool of a Global Chemical Company

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Evelyn Tjoe-Nij

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: This paper describes a simple-to-use and reliable screening tool called Critical Task Exposure Screening (CTES, developed by a chemical company. The tool assesses if the exposure to a chemical for a task is likely to be within acceptable levels. Methods: CTES is a Microsoft Excel tool, where the inhalation risk score is calculated by relating the exposure estimate to the corresponding occupational exposure limit (OEL or occupational exposure band (OEB. The inhalation exposure is estimated for tasks by preassigned ART1.5 activity classes and modifying factors. Results: CTES requires few inputs. The toxicological data, including OELs, OEBs, and vapor pressure are read from a database. Once the substance is selected, the user specifies its concentration and then chooses the task description and its duration. CTES has three outputs that may trigger follow-up: (1 inhalation risk score; (2 identification of the skin hazard with the skin warnings for local and systemic adverse effects; and (3 status for carcinogenic, mutagenic, or reprotoxic effects. Conclusion: The tool provides an effective way to rapidly screen low-concern tasks, and quickly identifies certain tasks involving substances that will need further review with, nevertheless, the appropriate conservatism. This tool shows that the higher-tier ART1.5 inhalation exposure assessment model can be included effectively in a screening tool. After 2 years of worldwide extensive use within the company, CTES is well perceived by the users, including the shop floor management, and it fulfills its target of screening tool. Keywords: occupational exposure, risk assessment, risk management

  2. Development of the Motivation to Change Lifestyle and Health Behaviours for Dementia Risk Reduction Scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarang Kim

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Background and Aims: It is not yet understood how attitudes concerning dementia risk may affect motivation to change health behaviours and lifestyle. This study was designed to develop a reliable and valid theory-based measure to understand beliefs underpinning the lifestyle and health behavioural changes needed for dementia risk reduction. Methods: 617 participants aged ≥50 years completed a theory-based questionnaire, namely, the Motivation to Change Lifestyle and Health Behaviours for Dementia Risk Reduction (MCLHB-DRR scale. The MCLHB-DRR consists of 53 items, reflecting seven subscales of the Health Belief Model. Results: Confirmatory factor analysis was performed and revealed that a seven-factor solution with 27 items fitted the data (comparative fit index = 0.920, root-mean-square error of approximation = 0.047 better than the original 53 items. Internal reliability (α = 0.608-0.864 and test-retest reliability (α = 0.552-0.776 were moderate to high. Measurement of invariance across gender and age was also demonstrated. Conclusions: These results propose that the MCLHB-DRR is a useful tool in assessing the beliefs and attitudes of males and females aged ≥50 years towards dementia risk reduction. This measure can be used in the development and evaluation of interventions aimed at dementia prevention.

  3. Disaster risk reduction in developing countries: costs, benefits and institutions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenny, Charles

    2012-10-01

    Some 60,000 people worldwide die annually in natural disasters, mostly due to the collapse of buildings in earthquakes, and primarily in the developing world. This is despite the fact that engineering solutions exist that can eliminate almost completely the risk of such deaths. Why is this? The solutions are expensive and technically demanding, so their cost-benefit ratio often is unfavourable as compared to other interventions. Nonetheless, there are various public disaster risk reduction interventions that are highly cost-effective. That such interventions frequently remain unimplemented or ineffectively executed points to a role for issues of political economy. Building regulations in developing countries appear to have limited impact in many cases, perhaps because of inadequate capacity and corruption. Public construction often is of low quality, perhaps for similar reasons. This suggests the need for approaches that emphasise simple and limited disaster risk regulation covering only the most at-risk structures-and that, preferably, non-experts can monitor-as well as numerous transparency and oversight mechanisms for public construction projects. © 2012 The Author(s). Journal compilation © Overseas Development Institute, 2012.

  4. Ibrutinib-associated bleeding: pathogenesis, management and risk reduction strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shatzel, J J; Olson, S R; Tao, D L; McCarty, O J T; Danilov, A V; DeLoughery, T G

    2017-05-01

    Ibrutinib is an irreversible inhibitor of Bruton's tyrosine kinase (Btk) that has proven to be an effective therapeutic agent for multiple B-cell-mediated lymphoproliferative disorders. Ibrutinib, however, carries an increased bleeding risk compared with standard chemotherapy. Bleeding events range from minor mucocutaneous bleeding to life-threatening hemorrhage, due in large part to the effects of ibrutinib on several distinct platelet signaling pathways. There is currently a minimal amount of data to guide clinicians regarding the use of ibrutinib in patients at high risk of bleeding or on anticoagulant or antiplatelet therapy. In addition, the potential cardiovascular protective effects of ibrutinib monotherapy in patients at risk of vascular disease are unknown. Patients should be cautioned against using non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, fish oils, vitamin E and aspirin-containing products, and consider replacing ibrutinib with a different agent if dual antiplatelet therapy is indicated. Patients should not take vitamin K antagonists concurrently with ibrutinib; direct oral anticoagulants should be used if extended anticoagulation is strongly indicated. In this review, we describe the pathophysiology of ibrutinib-mediated bleeding and suggest risk reduction strategies for common clinical scenarios associated with ibrutinib. © 2017 International Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis.

  5. Patterns of NPS Use and Risk Reduction in Slovenia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sande, Matej; Paš, Mina; Nahtigal, Klara; Šabić, Simona

    2018-01-15

    The following study presents factors influencing the decision to use/not to use new psychoactive substances (NPS), various patterns of NPS use, the problems experienced by users, and the methods for reducing the risks associated with NPS use. The study seeks to provide an in-depth look into the characteristics of NPS use and support the planning of targeted interventions in the field of NPS. The study involved 19 in-depth interviews carried out with 25 individuals divided into three subsamples in order to gain insight into the various experiences of NPS users. The interviews were conducted in Slovenia between December 2013 and October 2014. The sample was obtained by using the convenience sampling and snowball sampling methods. The main pattern of NPS use determined by the study concerned synthetic cathinones, specifically 3-MMC, with binge use spanning several days being a prominent feature. The main risks involving NPS use were: mixing various drugs, inappropriate dosing, lack of information prior to use, and the use of unknown substances. Several users spoke about effective strategies for reducing risks, such as obtaining information beforehand, using one's own implements and using only small quantities of unknown substances. Conclusions/Importance: The study revealed various factors based on which users decide to use NPS. Furthermore, users reported a number of problems resulting from NPS use, while risk reduction strategies are employed to a much lesser extent. Based on the results obtained, specific intervention efforts concerning NPS use and targeting specific groups of younger users were designed.

  6. Risk reduction and TQM: A corporate culture of continuous improvement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nau, D.C.

    1992-01-01

    A company supplying products and services to the nuclear industry that implements a cultural commitment to continuous improvement, in addition to providing higher quality products and services, also represents a significant reduction in operational risk to that industry. The implementation of a culture of total quality management (TQM), initiated by Sorrento Electronics (SE) in 1989, involves total commitment to the basic TQM principles: continuous improvement, people performing the work are the best sources of how to do it better, and employees must be empowered to make the improvements. What this means to the nuclear industry is a significant reduction in operational risk through: (1) products based on simpler, standardized, proven designs with established operational track records, enhancing confidence that they will perform as expected; (2) the highest confidence that products and supporting documentation are delivered with zero defects; (3) critical power plant schedules can be supported through the shortest possible equipment delivery times; (4) highly motivated employees with extremely positive attitudes, working together in cross-functional teams, virtually eliminate the possibility of deliberate product tampering or sabotage

  7. Disaster Risk Reduction through school learners’ awareness and preparedness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Takalani S. Rambau

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available In 2006, the ISDR (International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (2007 initiated a campaign called Disaster Risk Reduction Begins at School to encourage the integration of disaster risk education into school curricula in countries vulnerable to disasters. A study was initiated to determine how education, in particular curriculum development and teaching, contributes to South African learners’ hazard awareness and disaster preparedness. Mixed method research (consisting of questionnaires, interviews and document reviews was done to collect data. 150 educators from Gauteng, the Western Cape, KwaZulu-Natal, North West and the Eastern Cape completed questionnaires. Five curriculum coordinators, three disaster specialists and two disaster lecturers were interviewed to record their perspectives. The first finding of the study was that the majority of educators, disaster specialists and curriculum coordinators identified floods, fire, droughts, epidemics, road accidents and storms as the most prevalent disasters in the country. The second finding from the literature and empirical data collection revealed that South African communities, particularly people residing in informal settlements and other poor areas, are more vulnerable to disasters than their counterparts in more affluent areas. The third finding of the study was that teaching learners about hazards and disasters is vital and must be expanded.

  8. Resilience and disaster risk reduction: an etymological journey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexander, D. E.

    2013-04-01

    This paper examines the development over historical time of the meaning and uses of the term resilience. The objective is to deepen our understanding of how the term came to be adopted in disaster risk reduction and resolve some of the conflicts and controversies that have arisen when it has been used. The paper traces the development of resilience through the sciences, humanities, and legal and political spheres. It considers how mechanics passed the word to ecology and psychology, and how from there it was adopted by social research and sustainability science. As other authors have noted, as a concept, resilience involves some potentially serious conflicts or contradictions, for example between stability and dynamism, or between dynamic equilibrium (homeostasis) and evolution. Moreover, although the resilience concept works quite well within the confines of General Systems Theory, in situations in which a systems formulation inhibits rather than fosters explanation, a different interpretation of the term is warranted. This may be the case for disaster risk reduction, which involves transformation rather than preservation of the ''state of the system''. The article concludes that the modern conception of resilience derives benefit from a rich history of meanings and applications, but that it is dangerous - or at least potentially disappointing - to read to much into the term as a model and a paradigm. Sagitta in lapidem numquam figitur, interdum resiliens percutit dirigentem. ("An arrow never lodges in a stone: often it recoils upon its sender.") St. John Chrysostom (c. 347-407), Archbishop of Constantinople.

  9. Smartphone Delivery of Mobile HIV Risk Reduction Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, Karran A; Epstein, David H; Mezghanni, Mustapha; Vahabzadeh, Massoud; Reamer, David; Agage, Daniel; Preston, Kenzie L

    2013-01-01

    We sought to develop and deploy a video-based smartphone-delivered mobile HIV Risk Reduction (mHIVRR) intervention to individuals in an addiction treatment clinic. We developed 3 video modules that consisted of a 10-minute HIVRR video, 11 acceptability questions, and 3 knowledge questions and deployed them as a secondary study within a larger study of ecological momentary and geographical momentary assessments. All 24 individuals who remained in the main study long enough completed the mHIVRR secondary study. All 3 videos met our a priori criteria for acceptability "as is" in the population: they achieved median scores of ≤2.5 on a 5-point Likert scale; ≤20% of the individuals gave them the most negative rating on the scale; a majority of the individuals stated that they would not prefer other formats over video-based smartphone-delivered one (all P smartphone is acceptable, feasible and may increase HIV/STD risk reduction knowledge. Future studies, with pre-intervention assessments of knowledge and random assignment, are needed to confirm these findings.

  10. Smartphone Delivery of Mobile HIV Risk Reduction Education

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karran A. Phillips

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available We sought to develop and deploy a video-based smartphone-delivered mobile HIV Risk Reduction (mHIVRR intervention to individuals in an addiction treatment clinic. We developed 3 video modules that consisted of a 10-minute HIVRR video, 11 acceptability questions, and 3 knowledge questions and deployed them as a secondary study within a larger study of ecological momentary and geographical momentary assessments. All 24 individuals who remained in the main study long enough completed the mHIVRR secondary study. All 3 videos met our a priori criteria for acceptability “as is” in the population: they achieved median scores of ≤2.5 on a 5-point Likert scale; ≤20% of the individuals gave them the most negative rating on the scale; a majority of the individuals stated that they would not prefer other formats over video-based smartphone-delivered one (all P<0.05. Additionally, all of our video modules met our a priori criteria for feasibility: ≤20% of data were missing due to participant noncompliance and ≤20% were missing due to technical failure. We concluded that video-based mHIVRR education delivered via smartphone is acceptable, feasible and may increase HIV/STD risk reduction knowledge. Future studies, with pre-intervention assessments of knowledge and random assignment, are needed to confirm these findings.

  11. Resilience and disaster risk reduction: an etymological journey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexander, D. E.

    2013-11-01

    This paper examines the development over historical time of the meaning and uses of the term resilience. The objective is to deepen our understanding of how the term came to be adopted in disaster risk reduction and resolve some of the conflicts and controversies that have arisen when it has been used. The paper traces the development of resilience through the sciences, humanities, and legal and political spheres. It considers how mechanics passed the word to ecology and psychology, and how from there it was adopted by social research and sustainability science. As other authors have noted, as a concept, resilience involves some potentially serious conflicts or contradictions, for example between stability and dynamism, or between dynamic equilibrium (homeostasis) and evolution. Moreover, although the resilience concept works quite well within the confines of general systems theory, in situations in which a systems formulation inhibits rather than fosters explanation, a different interpretation of the term is warranted. This may be the case for disaster risk reduction, which involves transformation rather than preservation of the "state of the system". The article concludes that the modern conception of resilience derives benefit from a rich history of meanings and applications, but that it is dangerous - or at least potentially disappointing - to read to much into the term as a model and a paradigm.

  12. Cardiovascular risk prediction tools for populations in Asia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barzi, F; Patel, A; Gu, D; Sritara, P; Lam, T H; Rodgers, A; Woodward, M

    2007-02-01

    Cardiovascular risk equations are traditionally derived from the Framingham Study. The accuracy of this approach in Asian populations, where resources for risk factor measurement may be limited, is unclear. To compare "low-information" equations (derived using only age, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol and smoking status) derived from the Framingham Study with those derived from the Asian cohorts, on the accuracy of cardiovascular risk prediction. Separate equations to predict the 8-year risk of a cardiovascular event were derived from Asian and Framingham cohorts. The performance of these equations, and a subsequently "recalibrated" Framingham equation, were evaluated among participants from independent Chinese cohorts. Six cohort studies from Japan, Korea and Singapore (Asian cohorts); six cohort studies from China; the Framingham Study from the US. 172,077 participants from the Asian cohorts; 25,682 participants from Chinese cohorts and 6053 participants from the Framingham Study. In the Chinese cohorts, 542 cardiovascular events occurred during 8 years of follow-up. Both the Asian cohorts and the Framingham equations discriminated cardiovascular risk well in the Chinese cohorts; the area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve was at least 0.75 for men and women. However, the Framingham risk equation systematically overestimated risk in the Chinese cohorts by an average of 276% among men and 102% among women. The corresponding average overestimation using the Asian cohorts equation was 11% and 10%, respectively. Recalibrating the Framingham risk equation using cardiovascular disease incidence from the non-Chinese Asian cohorts led to an overestimation of risk by an average of 4% in women and underestimation of risk by an average of 2% in men. A low-information Framingham cardiovascular risk prediction tool, which, when recalibrated with contemporary data, is likely to estimate future cardiovascular risk with similar accuracy in Asian

  13. Landslide risk reduction strategies: an inventory for the Global South

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maes, Jan; Kervyn, Matthieu; Vranken, Liesbet; Dewitte, Olivier; Vanmaercke, Matthias; Mertens, Kewan; Jacobs, Liesbet; Poesen, Jean

    2015-04-01

    Landslides constitute a serious problem globally. Moreover, landslide impact remains underestimated especially in the Global South. It is precisely there where the largest impact is experienced. An overview of measures taken to reduce risk of landslides in the Global South is however still lacking. Because in many countries of the Global South disaster risk reduction (DRR) is at an emerging stage, it is crucial to monitor the ongoing efforts (e.g. discussions on the Post-2015 Framework for DRR). The first objective of this study is to make an inventory of techniques and strategies that are applied to reduce risk from landslides in tropical countries. The second objective is to investigate what are the main bottlenecks for implementation of DRR strategies. In order to achieve these objectives, a review of both scientific and grey literature was conducted, supplemented with expert knowledge. The compilation of recommended and implemented DRR measures from landslide-prone tropical countries is based on an adapted classification proposed by the SafeLand project. According to Vaciago (2013), landslide risk can be reduced by either reducing the hazard, the vulnerability, the number or value of elements at risk or by sharing the residual risk. In addition, these measures can be combined with education and/or awareness raising and are influenced by governance structures and cultural beliefs. Global landslide datasets have been used to identify landslide-prone countries, augmented with region-specific datasets. Countries located in the tropics were selected in order to include landslide-prone countries with a different Human Development Index (HDI) but with a similar climate. Preliminary results support the statement made by Anderson (2013) that although the importance of shifting from post-disaster emergency actions to pre-disaster mitigation is acknowledged, in practice this paradigm shift seems rather limited. It is expected that this is especially the case in countries

  14. The comparative risk assessment framework and tools (CRAFT)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Southern Research Station. USDA Forest Service

    2010-01-01

    To help address these challenges, the USDA Forest Service’s Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center (EFETAC) and the University of North Carolina Asheville’s National Environmental Modeling and Analysis Center (NEMAC) designed a planning framework, called the Comparative Risk Assessment Framework and Tools (CRAFT). CRAFT is...

  15. Risk avoidance versus risk reduction: a framework and segmentation profile for understanding adolescent sexual activity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hopkins, Christopher D; Tanner, John F; Raymond, Mary Anne

    2004-01-01

    The teen birthrate in the United States is twice that of other industrialized nations. Adolescents in the U.S. are among high-risk groups for HIV/AIDS and other sexually transmitted diseases. As a result, the Department of Health and Human Services changed its policy on the promotion of abstinence to teenagers from a focus on a risk reduction strategy to a focus on a risk avoidance strategy. In order to create more effective risk avoidance as well as risk reduction campaigns, this study proposes a framework to illustrate the distinction that teens make between spontaneous sexual activity and planned sexual activity, as well as those teens that make a commitment to abstinence versus abstinence by default. Furthermore, this study classifies teens into three behavior segments (abstemious, promiscuous and monogamous) and then assesses specific differences that exist within these groups relative to their attitudes and perceptions concerning abstinence, sexual activity, contraception, fear and norms. This change in focus from a risk reduction to a risk avoidance strategy has important implications for social marketing, public policy and marketing theory.

  16. Application of Risk Assessment Tools in the Continuous Risk Management (CRM) Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ray, Paul S.

    2002-01-01

    Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is currently implementing the Continuous Risk Management (CRM) Program developed by the Carnegie Mellon University and recommended by NASA as the Risk Management (RM) implementation approach. The four most frequently used risk assessment tools in the center are: (a) Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA), Hazard Analysis (HA), Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), and Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA). There are some guidelines for selecting the type of risk assessment tools during the project formulation phase of a project, but there is not enough guidance as to how to apply these tools in the Continuous Risk Management process (CRM). But the ways the safety and risk assessment tools are used make a significant difference in the effectiveness in the risk management function. Decisions regarding, what events are to be included in the analysis, to what level of details should the analysis be continued, make significant difference in the effectiveness of risk management program. Tools of risk analysis also depends on the phase of a project e.g. at the initial phase of a project, when not much data are available on hardware, standard FMEA cannot be applied; instead a functional FMEA may be appropriate. This study attempted to provide some directives to alleviate the difficulty in applying FTA, PRA, and FMEA in the CRM process. Hazard Analysis was not included in the scope of the study due to the short duration of the summer research project.

  17. Breast and Ovarian Cancer Risk and Risk Reduction in Jewish BRCA1/2 Mutation Carriers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finkelman, Brian S.; Rubinstein, Wendy S.; Friedman, Sue; Friebel, Tara M.; Dubitsky, Shera; Schonberger, Niecee Singer; Shoretz, Rochelle; Singer, Christian F.; Blum, Joanne L.; Tung, Nadine; Olopade, Olufunmilayo I.; Weitzel, Jeffrey N.; Lynch, Henry T.; Snyder, Carrie; Garber, Judy E.; Schildkraut, Joellen; Daly, Mary B.; Isaacs, Claudine; Pichert, Gabrielle; Neuhausen, Susan L.; Couch, Fergus J.; van't Veer, Laura; Eeles, Rosalind; Bancroft, Elizabeth; Evans, D. Gareth; Ganz, Patricia A.; Tomlinson, Gail E.; Narod, Steven A.; Matloff, Ellen; Domchek, Susan; Rebbeck, Timothy R.

    2012-01-01

    Purpose Mutations in BRCA1/2 dramatically increase the risk of both breast and ovarian cancers. Three mutations in these genes (185delAG, 5382insC, and 6174delT) occur at high frequency in Ashkenazi Jews. We evaluated how these common Jewish mutations (CJMs) affect cancer risks and risk reduction. Methods Our cohort comprised 4,649 women with disease-associated BRCA1/2 mutations from 22 centers in the Prevention and Observation of Surgical End Points Consortium. Of these women, 969 were self-identified Jewish women. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate breast and ovarian cancer risks, as well as risk reduction from risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy (RRSO), by CJM and self-identified Jewish status. Results Ninety-one percent of Jewish BRCA1/2-positive women carried a CJM. Jewish women were significantly more likely to undergo RRSO than non-Jewish women (54% v 41%, respectively; odds ratio, 1.87; 95% CI, 1.44 to 2.42). Relative risks of cancer varied by CJM, with the relative risk of breast cancer being significantly lower in 6174delT mutation carriers than in non-CJM BRCA2 carriers (hazard ratio, 0.35; 95% CI, 0.18 to 0.69). No significant difference was seen in cancer risk reduction after RRSO among subgroups. Conclusion Consistent with previous results, risks for breast and ovarian cancer varied by CJM in BRCA1/2 carriers. In particular, 6174delT carriers had a lower risk of breast cancer. This finding requires additional confirmation in larger prospective and population-based cohort studies before being integrated into clinical care. PMID:22430266

  18. Optimal Risk Reduction in the Railway Industry by Using Dynamic Programming

    OpenAIRE

    Michael Todinov; Eberechi Weli

    2013-01-01

    The paper suggests for the first time the use of dynamic programming techniques for optimal risk reduction in the railway industry. It is shown that by using the concept ‘amount of removed risk by a risk reduction option’, the problem related to optimal allocation of a fixed budget to achieve a maximum risk reduction in the railway industry can be reduced to an optimisation problem from dynamic programming. For n risk reduction options and size of the available risk reduction budget B (expres...

  19. Providing access to risk prediction tools via the HL7 XML-formatted risk web service.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chipman, Jonathan; Drohan, Brian; Blackford, Amanda; Parmigiani, Giovanni; Hughes, Kevin; Bosinoff, Phil

    2013-07-01

    Cancer risk prediction tools provide valuable information to clinicians but remain computationally challenging. Many clinics find that CaGene or HughesRiskApps fit their needs for easy- and ready-to-use software to obtain cancer risks; however, these resources may not fit all clinics' needs. The HughesRiskApps Group and BayesMendel Lab therefore developed a web service, called "Risk Service", which may be integrated into any client software to quickly obtain standardized and up-to-date risk predictions for BayesMendel tools (BRCAPRO, MMRpro, PancPRO, and MelaPRO), the Tyrer-Cuzick IBIS Breast Cancer Risk Evaluation Tool, and the Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool. Software clients that can convert their local structured data into the HL7 XML-formatted family and clinical patient history (Pedigree model) may integrate with the Risk Service. The Risk Service uses Apache Tomcat and Apache Axis2 technologies to provide an all Java web service. The software client sends HL7 XML information containing anonymized family and clinical history to a Dana-Farber Cancer Institute (DFCI) server, where it is parsed, interpreted, and processed by multiple risk tools. The Risk Service then formats the results into an HL7 style message and returns the risk predictions to the originating software client. Upon consent, users may allow DFCI to maintain the data for future research. The Risk Service implementation is exemplified through HughesRiskApps. The Risk Service broadens the availability of valuable, up-to-date cancer risk tools and allows clinics and researchers to integrate risk prediction tools into their own software interface designed for their needs. Each software package can collect risk data using its own interface, and display the results using its own interface, while using a central, up-to-date risk calculator. This allows users to choose from multiple interfaces while always getting the latest risk calculations. Consenting users contribute their data for future

  20. Qualitative risk assessment as a remediation management tool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knutson, D.E.

    1991-01-01

    The technique used to complete this thesis utilizes existing NRC and EPA guidance on health-based risk to qualitatively prioritize preliminary assessments and provide a tool for the direction and management of remediation activities. This method is intended as a decision making tool to aid in prioritizing the remediation effort and manage the remedial investigation and feasibility study (RI/FS) process. It is not a replacement for the RI/FS. The methodology for qualitative risk assessment utilizes data gathered in preliminary assessments and calculates the health-based hazards and consequences from contaminants found at each individual location. The health-based qualitative risk indicated that number-sign 6 fuel oil, carbon tetrachloride, depleted uranium, and enriched uranium were the contaminants of major concern, in that order. Plutonium ranked approximately sixth in the contaminant of concern priority. 38 refs., 1 fig., 9 tabs

  1. Aqueduct: an interactive tool to empower global water risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reig, Paul; Gassert, Francis

    2013-04-01

    The Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas (Aqueduct) is a publicly available, global database and interactive tool that maps indicators of water related risks for decision makers worldwide. Aqueduct makes use of the latest geo-statistical modeling techniques to compute a composite index and translate the most recently available hydrological data into practical information on water related risks for companies, investors, and governments alike. Twelve global indicators are grouped into a Water Risk Framework designed in response to the growing concerns from private sector actors around water scarcity, water quality, climate change, and increasing demand for freshwater. The Aqueduct framework includes indicators of water stress, variability in supply, storage, flood, drought, groundwater, water quality and social conflict, addressing both spatial and temporal variation in water hazards. It organizes indicators into three categories of risk that bring together multiple dimensions of water related risk into comprehensive aggregated scores, which allow for dynamic weighting to capture users' unique exposure to water hazards. All information is compiled into an online, open access platform, from which decision-makers can view indicators, scores, and maps, conduct global risk assessments, and export data and shape files for further analysis. Companies can use this tool to evaluate their exposure to water risks across operations and supply chains, investors to assess water-related risks in their portfolio, and public-sector actors to better understand water security. Additionally, the open nature of the data and maps allow other organizations to build off of this effort with new research, for example in the areas of water-energy or water-food relationships. This presentation will showcase the Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas online tool and the features and functionalities it offers, as well as explain how it can be used for both private and public sector applications. The session will

  2. Risk reduction and the privatization option: First principles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bjornstad, D.J.; Jones, D.W.; Russell, M.; Cummings, R.C.; Valdez, G.; Duemmer, C.L.

    1997-01-01

    The Department of Energy's Office of Environmental Restoration and Waste Management (EM) faces a challenging mission. To increase efficiency, EM is undertaking a number of highly innovative initiatives--two of which are of particular importance to the present study. One is the 2006 Plan, a planning and budgeting process that seeks to convert the clean-up program from a temporally and fiscally open-ended endeavor to a strictly bounded one, with firm commitments over a decade-long horizon. The second is a major overhauling of the management and contracting practices that define the relationship between the Department and the private sector, aimed at cost reduction by increasing firms' responsibilities and profit opportunities and reducing DOE's direct participation in management practices and decisions. The goal of this paper is to provide an independent perspective on how EM should create new management practices to deal with private sector partners that are motivated by financial incentives. It seeks to ground this perspective in real world concerns--the background of the clean-up effort, the very difficult technical challenges it faces, the very real threats to environment, health and safety that have now been juxtaposed with financial drivers, and the constraints imposed by government's unique business practices and public responsibilities. The approach is to raise issues through application of first principles. The paper is targeted at the EM policy officer who must implement the joint visions of the 2006 plan and privatization within the context of the tradeoff between terminal risk reduction and interim risk management

  3. Risk reduction and the privatization option: First principles

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bjornstad, D.J.; Jones, D.W.; Russell, M. [Joint Inst. for Energy and Environment, Knoxville, TN (United States); Cummings, R.C.; Valdez, G. [Georgia State Univ., Atlanta, GA (United States); Duemmer, C.L. [Hull, Duemmer and Garland (United States)

    1997-06-25

    The Department of Energy`s Office of Environmental Restoration and Waste Management (EM) faces a challenging mission. To increase efficiency, EM is undertaking a number of highly innovative initiatives--two of which are of particular importance to the present study. One is the 2006 Plan, a planning and budgeting process that seeks to convert the clean-up program from a temporally and fiscally open-ended endeavor to a strictly bounded one, with firm commitments over a decade-long horizon. The second is a major overhauling of the management and contracting practices that define the relationship between the Department and the private sector, aimed at cost reduction by increasing firms` responsibilities and profit opportunities and reducing DOE`s direct participation in management practices and decisions. The goal of this paper is to provide an independent perspective on how EM should create new management practices to deal with private sector partners that are motivated by financial incentives. It seeks to ground this perspective in real world concerns--the background of the clean-up effort, the very difficult technical challenges it faces, the very real threats to environment, health and safety that have now been juxtaposed with financial drivers, and the constraints imposed by government`s unique business practices and public responsibilities. The approach is to raise issues through application of first principles. The paper is targeted at the EM policy officer who must implement the joint visions of the 2006 plan and privatization within the context of the tradeoff between terminal risk reduction and interim risk management.

  4. Flooding risk reduction for the ASCO NPP PSA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nos Llorens, V.; Faig Sureda, J.

    1993-01-01

    Developed within the framework of the UTE (INITEC-INYPSA-Empresarios Agrupados), the Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA) of the Asco Nuclear Power Plant has served both as a basic tool in reducing the risk of potential internal flooding at the plant, and as a guideline for studying the optimization and feasibility of necessary plant design modifications and changes to procedures. During execution of the work, and in view of the results, a series of improvements were proposed which gave rise to design modification studies. The paper seeks to describe the effect of these modifications on reducing core damage frequency, it also includes a general description of the methodology used. Finally, it compares the results obtained in the context of similar studies performed in other PSAs. (author)

  5. Structuring Cooperative Nuclear RIsk Reduction Initiatives with China.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brandt, Larry [Stanford Univ., CA (United States); Reinhardt, Jason Christian [Stanford Univ., CA (United States); Hecker, Siegfried [Stanford Univ., CA (United States)

    2017-03-01

    The Stanford Center for International Security and Cooperation engaged several Chinese nuclear organizations in cooperative research that focused on responses to radiological and nuclear terrorism. The objective was to identify joint research initiatives to reduce the global dangers of such threats and to pursue initial technical collaborations in several high priority areas. Initiatives were identified in three primary research areas: 1) detection and interdiction of smuggled nuclear materials; 2) nuclear forensics; and 3) radiological (“dirty bomb”) threats and countermeasures. Initial work emphasized the application of systems and risk analysis tools, which proved effective in structuring the collaborations. The extensive engagements between national security nuclear experts in China and the U.S. during the research strengthened professional relationships between these important communities.

  6. Strategic Risk Assessment: A Decision Tool for Complex Decisions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pollard, Simon; Duarte-Davidson, Raquel; Yearsley, Roger [Environment Agency, London (United Kingdom). National Centre for Risk Analysis and Options Appraisal; Kemp, Ray; Crawford, Mark [Galson Sciences Limited, Oakham (United Kingdom)

    2001-07-01

    Reporting on the state of the environment often requires policy makers and regulators to prioritise a range of diverse environmental issues for the purpose of directing future action on environmental protection and improvement. Information on environmental issues to inform this type of analysis can be disparate, it may be too voluminous or even absent. Data on a range of issues are rarely presented in a common format that allows easy comparison. Nevertheless, strategic judgements are required on the significance of impacts from various environmental pressures and on the inherent uncertainties. Prioritising issues forces a discussion among stakeholders of the relative significance of 'environmental harm' from pressures acting on various receptors in the environment. Discussions of this sort rapidly evolve into a discourse on risks and values. In an attempt to help systematise these discussions and provide practical tools for the analysis of environmental risks at a strategic level, the Environment Agency of England and Wales has initiated developmental research on strategic risk assessment. The tools developed under this research use the concept of 'environmental harm' as a common currency, viewed from technical, social and economic perspectives, to analyse impacts from a range of environmental pressures. Critical to an informed debate is an understanding and analysis both of the various characteristics of harm (spatial and temporal extent, reversibility, latency, etc.) and of the social response to the actual or potential environmental harm. Recent developments in this approach allow a presentation of the analysis in a structured fashion so as to better inform risk management decisions. Here, we present recent developments in the strategic risk assessment research tool, as tested by case studies from state of the environment reporting and the analysis of a regional environmental plan. We discuss its relative advantages and limitations and its

  7. Strategic Risk Assessment: A Decision Tool for Complex Decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pollard, Simon; Duarte-Davidson, Raquel; Yearsley, Roger

    2001-01-01

    Reporting on the state of the environment often requires policy makers and regulators to prioritise a range of diverse environmental issues for the purpose of directing future action on environmental protection and improvement. Information on environmental issues to inform this type of analysis can be disparate, it may be too voluminous or even absent. Data on a range of issues are rarely presented in a common format that allows easy comparison. Nevertheless, strategic judgements are required on the significance of impacts from various environmental pressures and on the inherent uncertainties. Prioritising issues forces a discussion among stakeholders of the relative significance of 'environmental harm' from pressures acting on various receptors in the environment. Discussions of this sort rapidly evolve into a discourse on risks and values. In an attempt to help systematise these discussions and provide practical tools for the analysis of environmental risks at a strategic level, the Environment Agency of England and Wales has initiated developmental research on strategic risk assessment. The tools developed under this research use the concept of 'environmental harm' as a common currency, viewed from technical, social and economic perspectives, to analyse impacts from a range of environmental pressures. Critical to an informed debate is an understanding and analysis both of the various characteristics of harm (spatial and temporal extent, reversibility, latency, etc.) and of the social response to the actual or potential environmental harm. Recent developments in this approach allow a presentation of the analysis in a structured fashion so as to better inform risk management decisions. Here, we present recent developments in the strategic risk assessment research tool, as tested by case studies from state of the environment reporting and the analysis of a regional environmental plan. We discuss its relative advantages and limitations and its wider potential role

  8. Risk assessment tools to identify women with increased risk of osteoporotic fracture. Complexity or simplicity?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rubin, Katrine Hass; Friis-Holmberg, Teresa; Hermann, Anne Pernille

    2013-01-01

    A huge number of risk assessment tools have been developed. Far from all have been validated in external studies, more of them have absence of methodological and transparent evidence and few are integrated in national guidelines. Therefore, we performed a systematic review to provide an overview...... of existing valid and reliable risk assessment tools for prediction of osteoporotic fractures. Additionally, we aimed to determine if the performance each tool was sufficient for practical use and lastly to examine whether the complexity of the tools influenced their discriminative power. We searched Pub......Med, Embase and Cochrane databases for papers and evaluated these with respect to methodological quality using the QUADAS checklist. A total of 48 tools were identified, 20 had been externally validated, however only 6 tools had been tested more than once in a population-based setting with acceptable...

  9. Comparison of cost effectiveness of risk reduction among different energy systems: French case studies. Final report of the co-ordinated research programme

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lochard, Jacques

    1989-08-01

    This report presents the three French case studies performed in the framework of the coordinated research program on 'Comparison of Cost-effectiveness of Risk Reduction among different Energy Systems': Cost effectiveness of robotics and remote tooling for occupational risk reduction at a nuclear fuel fabrication facility; Cost-effectiveness of protection actions to reduce occupational exposures in underground uranium mines; Cost-effectiveness of safety measures to reduce public risk associated with the transportation of UF 6 by truck and trains

  10. Social Media Use and Sexual Risk Reduction Behavior Among Minority Youth: Seeking Safe Sex Information.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stevens, Robin; Gilliard-Matthews, Stacia; Dunaev, Jamie; Todhunter-Reid, Abigail; Brawner, Bridgette; Stewart, Jennifer

    Sexual health is an important area of study-particularly for minority youth and youth living in disadvantaged neighborhoods. The purpose of the research was to examine the sources of sexual health information associated with youth adopting sexual risk reduction behaviors. Data collection took place in a small city in the Northeastern United States using cross-sectional behavioral surveys and modified venue-based sampling. Participants included 249 African American and Latino youth aged 13-24. Participants reported their sources of information about contraception and human immunodeficiency virus/sexually transmitted disease, such as TV/movies, parents, social media; their intentions to have sex; and condom and contraception use during their last sexual activity. Social media use, past pregnancy experience, past sexual history, age, and gender were also measured. Standard tests of bivariate association (chi-square and F tests) were used to examine initial associations between sexual risk reduction behavior and exposure to sexual risk reduction information on social media. Logistic regression models were used to test multivariate relationships between information sources and sexual risk reduction behavior. Youth who were exposed to sexual health messages on social media were 2.69 times (p < .05) and 2.49 times (p < .08) more likely to have used contraception or a condom at last intercourse, respectively. Parents, schools, or traditional media as information sources were not significantly associated with contractive use or condom use at last intercourse. Youth sexual behavior is increasingly informed by social media messages. Health practitioners should utilize social media as an important health promotion tool.

  11. The Good, The Bad and The Ugly: Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) Versus Disaster Risk Creation (DRC)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, James

    2012-01-01

    In understanding and trying to reduce the risk from disasters, connections are often articulated amongst poverty, vulnerability, risk, and disasters. These are welcome steps, but the approach taken in top-down international documents is rarely to articulate explicitly that vulnerability accrues from a wide variety of dynamic and long-term processes. Neglecting these processes—and failing to explore their links with poverty, risk, and disasters—tends to encourage disaster risk creation. This paper identifies seven examples of on-the-ground realities of long-term vulnerability within two clusters: Endangerment: 1 Environmental degradation. 2 Discrimination. 3 Displacement. Impoverishment: 4 Self-seeking public expenditure. 5 Denial of access to resources. 6 Corruption. 7 Siphoning of public money. Examples are presented as vignettes, many contemporary and many rooted in historical contexts, to demonstrate the extent to which “vulnerability drivers” emanate from greed, the misuse of political and commercial power, mismanagement and incompetence amongst other behaviours. Moving forward to the tackling of disaster risk creation, instead of simply seeking disaster risk reduction, requires detailed investigation into these contemporary and historical realities of the causes of vulnerability. That would support the integration of disaster risk reduction within the many wider contexts that foment and perpetuate vulnerability. PMID:22919564

  12. The Good, The Bad and The Ugly: Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) Versus Disaster Risk Creation (DRC).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, James

    2012-06-21

    In understanding and trying to reduce the risk from disasters, connections are often articulated amongst poverty, vulnerability, risk, and disasters. These are welcome steps, but the approach taken in top-down international documents is rarely to articulate explicitly that vulnerability accrues from a wide variety of dynamic and long-term processes. Neglecting these processes-and failing to explore their links with poverty, risk, and disasters-tends to encourage disaster risk creation. This paper identifies seven examples of on-the-ground realities of long-term vulnerability within two clusters: Endangerment: 1 Environmental degradation. 2 Discrimination. 3 Displacement. Impoverishment: 4 Self-seeking public expenditure. 5 Denial of access to resources. 6 Corruption. 7 Siphoning of public money. Examples are presented as vignettes, many contemporary and many rooted in historical contexts, to demonstrate the extent to which "vulnerability drivers" emanate from greed, the misuse of political and commercial power, mismanagement and incompetence amongst other behaviours. Moving forward to the tackling of disaster risk creation, instead of simply seeking disaster risk reduction, requires detailed investigation into these contemporary and historical realities of the causes of vulnerability. That would support the integration of disaster risk reduction within the many wider contexts that foment and perpetuate vulnerability.

  13. Therapeutical approach to plasma homocysteine and cardiovascular risk reduction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcello Ciaccio

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available Marcello Ciaccio, Giulia Bivona, Chiara BelliaDepartment of Medical Biotechnologies and Forensic Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, University of Palermo, ItalyAbstract: Homocysteine is a sulfur-containing aminoacid produced during metabolism of methionine. Since 1969 the relationship between altered homocysteine metabolism and both coronary and peripheral atherotrombosis is known; in recent years experimental evidences have shown that elevated plasma levels of homocysteine are associated with an increased risk of atherosclerosis and cardiovascular ischemic events. Several mechanisms by which elevated homocysteine impairs vascular function have been proposed, including impairment of endothelial function, production of reactive oxygen species (ROS and consequent oxidation of low-density lipids. Endothelial function is altered in subjects with hyperhomocysteinemia, and endothelial dysfunction is correlated with plasma levels of homocysteine. Folic acid and B vitamins, required for remethylation of homocysteine to methionine, are the most important dietary determinants of homocysteine and daily supplementation typically lowers plasma homocysteine levels; it is still unclear whether the decreased plasma levels of homocysteine through diet or drugs may be paralleled by a reduction in cardiovascular risk.Keywords: homocysteine, MTHFR, cardiovascular disease, folate, B vitamin

  14. Operation and evaluation of online risk communication assistant tool, 'ORCAT'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kimura, Hiroshi; Katsumura, Soichiro; Furuta, Kazuo; Matsumura, Kenichi; Tanaka, Hiroshi

    2005-01-01

    Risk communication about the high-level radioactive waste (HLW) disposal is necessary for public acceptance of HLW disposal program. Online Risk Communication Assistant Tool (ORCAT) system is developed in order to support risk communication for high-level radioactive disposal on World Wide Web. We have carried out two test operations of ORCAT system. First test operation is carried out from Jun. 26 to Feb. 13, 2003. After the first operation, we improved the ORCAT system, and carried out the second test operation from Dec. 4 to 22, 2004. In the second test operation, 20 participants replayed the questionnaire about usability of ORCAT system. In consequence, we found that the ORCAT system remains what need to refine, but is evaluated useful to the risk communication about the HLW disposal. (author)

  15. Risk reduction by combining nature values with flood protection?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Van Loon-Steensma Jantsje M.

    2016-01-01

    foreland into the dike design does not automatically mean that nature values and flood protection are well integrated. Flood protection imposes rather different requirements on the extent and features of marshes than nature conservation and development. Wave damping is most effective with a high and stable marsh, while nature thrives with dynamic processes and differences in elevation. Therefore, only a design that allows natural marsh dynamics and includes different marsh zones could combine nature values with flood protection. In practice, this means a dike design with an uncertain foreland, that offers space for natural processes. The uncertainty in foreland development reduces the possible flood risk reduction. In our paper we describe the critical points of interest concerning risk reduction in this system.

  16. Development of risk assessment tool for foundry workers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohan, G Madhan; Prasad, P S S; Mokkapati, Anil Kumar; Venkataraman, G

    2008-01-01

    Occupational ill-health and work-related disorders are predominant in manufacturing industries due to the inevitable presence of manual work even after several waves of industrial automation and technological advancements. Ergonomic risk factors and musculoskeletal disorders like low-back symptoms have been noted amongst foundry workers. The purpose of this study was to formulate and develop a Physical Effort Index to assess risk factor. The questionnaire tool applicable to foundry environment has been designed and validated. The data recorded through survey across the foundries has been subjected to regression analysis to correlate between proposed physical effort index and the standard Borg's Ratings of Perceived Exertion (RPE) scale. The physical efforts of sixty seven workers in various foundry shop floors were assessed subjectively. The 'Job factors' and 'Work environment' were the two major parameters considered in assessing the worker discomfort level at workplace. A relation between Borg's RPE scale and the above two parameters were arrived at, through regression analysis. The study demonstrates the prevalence of risk factors amongst foundry workers and the effectiveness of the proposed index in estimating the risk factor levels. RELEVANCE TO THE INDUSTRY: The proposed tool will assist foundry supervisors and managers to assess the risk factors and helps in better understanding of the workplace to avoid work-related disorders, ensuring better output.

  17. Use and clinical efficacy of standard and health information technology fall risk assessment tools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teh, Ruth C; Wilson, Anne; Ranasinghe, Damith; Visvanathan, Renuka

    2017-12-01

    To evaluate the health information technology (HIT) compared to Fall Risk for Older Persons (FROP) tool in fall risk screening. A HIT tool trial was conducted on the geriatric evaluation and management (GEM, n = 111) and acute medical units (AMU, n = 424). Health information technology and FROP scores were higher on GEM versus AMU, with no differences between people who fell and people who did not fall. Both score completion rates were similar, and their values correlated marginally (Spearman's correlation coefficient 0.33, P falls. Hospital fall rates trended towards reduction on AMU (4.20 vs 6.96, P = 0.15) and increase on GEM (10.98 vs 6.52, P = 0.54) with HIT tool implementation. Health information technology tool acceptability and scoring were comparable to FROP screening, with mixed effects on fall rate with HIT tool implementation. Clinician partnership remains key to effective tool development. © 2017 AJA Inc.

  18. Risk determination after an acute myocardial infarction: review of 3 clinical risk prediction tools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scruth, Elizabeth Ann; Page, Karen; Cheng, Eugene; Campbell, Michelle; Worrall-Carter, Linda

    2012-01-01

    The objective of the study was to provide comprehensive information for the clinical nurse specialist (CNS) on commonly used clinical prediction (risk assessment) tools used to estimate risk of a secondary cardiac or noncardiac event and mortality in patients undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) for ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). The evolution and widespread adoption of primary PCI represent major advances in the treatment of acute myocardial infarction, specifically STEMI. The American College of Cardiology and the American Heart Association have recommended early risk stratification for patients presenting with acute coronary syndromes using several clinical risk scores to identify patients' mortality and secondary event risk after PCI. Clinical nurse specialists are integral to any performance improvement strategy. Their knowledge and understandings of clinical prediction tools will be essential in carrying out important assessment, identifying and managing risk in patients who have sustained a STEMI, and enhancing discharge education including counseling on medications and lifestyle changes. Over the past 2 decades, risk scores have been developed from clinical trials to facilitate risk assessment. There are several risk scores that can be used to determine in-hospital and short-term survival. This article critiques the most common tools: the Thrombolytic in Myocardial Infarction risk score, the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events risk score, and the Controlled Abciximab and Device Investigation to Lower Late Angioplasty Complications risk score. The importance of incorporating risk screening assessment tools (that are important for clinical prediction models) to guide therapeutic management of patients cannot be underestimated. The ability to forecast secondary risk after a STEMI will assist in determining which patients would require the most aggressive level of treatment and monitoring postintervention including

  19. Binomial Distribution Sample Confidence Intervals Estimation 7. Absolute Risk Reduction and ARR-like Expressions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrei ACHIMAŞ CADARIU

    2004-08-01

    Full Text Available Assessments of a controlled clinical trial suppose to interpret some key parameters as the controlled event rate, experimental event date, relative risk, absolute risk reduction, relative risk reduction, number needed to treat when the effect of the treatment are dichotomous variables. Defined as the difference in the event rate between treatment and control groups, the absolute risk reduction is the parameter that allowed computing the number needed to treat. The absolute risk reduction is compute when the experimental treatment reduces the risk for an undesirable outcome/event. In medical literature when the absolute risk reduction is report with its confidence intervals, the method used is the asymptotic one, even if it is well know that may be inadequate. The aim of this paper is to introduce and assess nine methods of computing confidence intervals for absolute risk reduction and absolute risk reduction – like function.Computer implementations of the methods use the PHP language. Methods comparison uses the experimental errors, the standard deviations, and the deviation relative to the imposed significance level for specified sample sizes. Six methods of computing confidence intervals for absolute risk reduction and absolute risk reduction-like functions were assessed using random binomial variables and random sample sizes.The experiments shows that the ADAC, and ADAC1 methods obtains the best overall performance of computing confidence intervals for absolute risk reduction.

  20. Effectiveness of Weather Derivatives as a Risk Management Tool in Food Retail: The Case of Croatia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivana Štulec

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Non-catastrophic weather risk is gaining importance as climate change becomes more pronounced and economic crisis forces companies to strengthen their cost control. Recent literature proposes weather derivatives as flexible weather risk mitigating tools. Only a handful of studies analysed the feasibility of weather derivatives in industries other than agriculture and energy. The purpose of this paper is to review available weather risk management solutions in retail, present weather derivatives as non-catastrophic weather risk management tools, empirically demonstrate the process of designing weather derivatives and assess their effectiveness as risk mitigating tools in retail. Empirical analysis is performed on beverage sales in 60 large food stores in Croatia, and performance of monthly temperature put options during the summer season is examined. For weather sensitivity analysis of sales, the method of panel regression was used. Results show that weather has a statistically significant effect on beverage sales and that weather derivatives prove to be effective in beverage sales uncertainty reduction. Their effectiveness differs between covered periods and cities.

  1. Integrating Risk Analyses and Tools at the DOE Hanford Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    LOBER, R.W.

    2002-01-01

    Risk assessment and environmental impact analysis at the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Hanford Site in Washington State has made significant progress in refining the strategy for using risk analysis to support closing of several hundred waste sites plus 149 single-shell tanks at the Hanford Site. A Single-Shell Tank System Closure Work Plan outlines the current basis for closing the single-shell tank systems. An analogous site approach has been developed to address closure of aggregated groups of similar waste sites. Because of the complexity, decision time frames, proximity of non-tank farm waste sites to tank farms, scale, and regulatory considerations, various projects are providing integrated assessments to support risk analyses and decision-making. Projects and the tools that are being developed and applied at Hanford to support retrieval and cleanup decisions include: (1) Life Cycle Model (LCM) and Risk Receptor Model (RRM)--A site-level set of tools to support strategic analyses through scoping level risk management to assess different alternatives and options for tank closure. (2) Systems Assessment Capability for Integrated Groundwater Nadose Zone (SAC) and the Site-Wide Groundwater Model (SWGM)--A site-wide groundwater modeling system coupled with a risk-based uncertainty analysis of inventory, vadose zone, groundwater, and river interactions for evaluating cumulative impacts from individual and aggregate waste sites. (3) Retrieval Performance Evaluation (RPE)--A site-specific, risk-based methodology developed to evaluate performance of waste retrieval, leak detection and closure on a tank-specific basis as a function of past tank Leaks, potential leakage during retrieval operations, and remaining residual waste inventories following completion of retrieval operations. (4) Field Investigation Report (FIR)--A corrective action program to investigate the nature and extent of past tank leaks through characterization activities and assess future impacts to

  2. Risk management for engineering projects procedures, methods and tools

    CERN Document Server

    Munier, Nolberto

    2014-01-01

    Many people see risk in engineering projects as an imprecise and nebulous problem - something that exists, is feared and is impossible to deal with. Nothing could be further from the truth. While risk is certainly ubiquitous, sometimes difficult to detect, and cannot always be completely avoided, it can generally be mitigated, reduced or prevented through timely analysis and action.   This book covers the entire process of risk management by providing methodologies for determining the sources of project risk, and once threats have been identified, managing them through:   ·         identification and assessment (probability, relative importance, variables, risk breakdown structure, etc.) ·         implementation of measures for their prevention, reduction or mitigation ·         evaluation of impacts and quantification of risks ·         establishment of control measures   It also considers sensitivity analysis to determine the influence of uncertain parameters values ...

  3. Evaluation of a visual risk communication tool: effects on knowledge and perception of blood transfusion risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, D H; Mehta, M D

    2003-06-01

    Effective risk communication in transfusion medicine is important for health-care consumers, but understanding the numerical magnitude of risks can be difficult. The objective of this study was to determine the effect of a visual risk communication tool on the knowledge and perception of transfusion risk. Laypeople were randomly assigned to receive transfusion risk information with either a written or a visual presentation format for communicating and comparing the probabilities of transfusion risks relative to other hazards. Knowledge of transfusion risk was ascertained with a multiple-choice quiz and risk perception was ascertained by psychometric scaling and principal components analysis. Two-hundred subjects were recruited and randomly assigned. Risk communication with both written and visual presentation formats increased knowledge of transfusion risk and decreased the perceived dread and severity of transfusion risk. Neither format changed the perceived knowledge and control of transfusion risk, nor the perceived benefit of transfusion. No differences in knowledge or risk perception outcomes were detected between the groups randomly assigned to written or visual presentation formats. Risk communication that incorporates risk comparisons in either written or visual presentation formats can improve knowledge and reduce the perception of transfusion risk in laypeople.

  4. A procedure for seismic risk reduction in Campania Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zuccaro, G.; Palmieri, M.; Maggiò, F.; Cicalese, S.; Grassi, V.; Rauci, M.

    2008-07-01

    The Campania Region has set and performed a peculiar procedure in the field of seismic risk reduction. Great attention has been paid to public strategic buildings such as town halls, civil protection buildings and schools. The Ordinance 3274 promulgate in the 2004 by the Italian central authority obliged the owners of strategic buildings to perform seismic analyses within 2008 in order to check the safety of the structures and the adequacy to the use. In the procedure the Campania region, instead of the local authorities, ensure the complete drafting of seismic checks through financial resources of the Italian Government. A regional scientific technical committee has been constituted, composed of scientific experts, academics in seismic engineering. The committee has drawn up guidelines for the processing of seismic analyses. At the same time, the Region has issued a public competition to select technical seismic engineering experts to appoint seismic analysis in accordance with guidelines. The scientific committee has the option of requiring additional documents and studies in order to approve the safety checks elaborated. The Committee is supported by a technical and administrative secretariat composed of a group of expert in seismic engineering. At the moment several seismic safety checks have been completed. The results will be presented in this paper. Moreover, the policy to mitigate the seismic risk, set by Campania region, was to spend the most of the financial resources available on structural strengthening of public strategic buildings rather than in safety checks. A first set of buildings of which the response under seismic action was already known by data and studies of vulnerability previously realised, were selected for immediate retrofitting designs. Secondly, an other set of buildings were identified for structural strengthening. These were selected by using the criteria specified in the Guide Line prepared by the Scientific Committee and based on

  5. A procedure for seismic risk reduction in Campania Region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zuccaro, G.; Palmieri, M.; Cicalese, S.; Grassi, V.; Rauci, M.; Maggio, F.

    2008-01-01

    The Campania Region has set and performed a peculiar procedure in the field of seismic risk reduction. Great attention has been paid to public strategic buildings such as town halls, civil protection buildings and schools. The Ordinance 3274 promulgate in the 2004 by the Italian central authority obliged the owners of strategic buildings to perform seismic analyses within 2008 in order to check the safety of the structures and the adequacy to the use. In the procedure the Campania region, instead of the local authorities, ensure the complete drafting of seismic checks through financial resources of the Italian Government. A regional scientific technical committee has been constituted, composed of scientific experts, academics in seismic engineering. The committee has drawn up guidelines for the processing of seismic analyses. At the same time, the Region has issued a public competition to select technical seismic engineering experts to appoint seismic analysis in accordance with guidelines. The scientific committee has the option of requiring additional documents and studies in order to approve the safety checks elaborated. The Committee is supported by a technical and administrative secretariat composed of a group of expert in seismic engineering. At the moment several seismic safety checks have been completed. The results will be presented in this paper. Moreover, the policy to mitigate the seismic risk, set by Campania region, was to spend the most of the financial resources available on structural strengthening of public strategic buildings rather than in safety checks. A first set of buildings of which the response under seismic action was already known by data and studies of vulnerability previously realised, were selected for immediate retrofitting designs. Secondly, an other set of buildings were identified for structural strengthening. These were selected by using the criteria specified in the Guide Line prepared by the Scientific Committee and based on

  6. The use of current risk analysis tools evaluated towards preventing external domino accidents

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reniers, Genserik L L; Dullaert, W.; Ale, B. J.M.; Soudan, K.

    Risk analysis is an essential tool for company safety policy. Risk analysis consists of identifying and evaluating all possible risks. The efficiency of risk analysis tools depends on the rigueur of identifying and evaluating all possible risks. The diversity in risk analysis procedures is such that

  7. A generic rabies risk assessment tool to support surveillance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, Michael P; Hernández-Jover, Marta

    2015-06-01

    The continued spread of rabies in Indonesia poses a risk to human and animal populations in the remaining free islands, as well as the neighbouring rabies-free countries of Timor Leste, Papua New Guinea and Australia. Here we describe the development of a generic risk assessment tool which can be used to rapidly determine the vulnerability of rabies-free islands, so that scarce resources can be targeted to surveillance activities and the sensitivity of surveillance systems increased. The tool was developed by integrating information on the historical spread of rabies, anthropological studies, and the opinions of local animal health experts. The resulting tool is based on eight critical parameters that can be estimated from the literature, expert opinion, observational studies and information generated from routine surveillance. In the case study presented, results generated by this tool were most sensitive to the probability that dogs are present on private and fishing boats and it was predicted that rabies-infection (one infected case) might occur in a rabies-free island (upper 95% prediction interval) with a volume of 1000 boats movements. With 25,000 boat movements, the median of the probability distribution would be equal to one infected case, with an upper 95% prediction interval of six infected cases. This tool could also be used at the national-level to guide control and eradication plans. An initial recommendation from this study is to develop a surveillance programme to determine the likelihood that boats transport dogs, for example by port surveillance or regularly conducted surveys of fisherman and passenger ferries. However, the illegal nature of dog transportation from rabies-infected to rabies-free islands is a challenge for developing such surveillance. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, Stephanie L.; Jones, Lucile M.

    2013-01-01

    The Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) tsunami scenario depicts a hypothetical but plausible tsunami created by an earthquake offshore from the Alaska Peninsula and its impacts on the California coast. The tsunami scenario is a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the California Geological Survey (CGS), the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services (Cal OES), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), other Federal, State, County, and local agencies, private companies, and academic and other institutions. This document presents evidence for past tsunamis, the scientific basis for the source, likely inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental and ecological impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management and evacuation challenges, and policy implications for California associated with this hypothetical tsunami. We also discuss ongoing mitigation efforts by the State of California and new communication products. The intended users are those who need to make mitigation decisions before future tsunamis, and those who will need to make rapid decisions during tsunami events. The results of the tsunami scenario will help managers understand the context and consequences of their decisions and how they may improve preparedness and response. An evaluation component will assess the effectiveness of the scenario process for target stakeholders in a separate report to improve similar efforts in the future.

  9. Enhanced clinical pharmacy service targeting tools: risk-predictive algorithms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    El Hajji, Feras W D; Scullin, Claire; Scott, Michael G; McElnay, James C

    2015-04-01

    This study aimed to determine the value of using a mix of clinical pharmacy data and routine hospital admission spell data in the development of predictive algorithms. Exploration of risk factors in hospitalized patients, together with the targeting strategies devised, will enable the prioritization of clinical pharmacy services to optimize patient outcomes. Predictive algorithms were developed using a number of detailed steps using a 75% sample of integrated medicines management (IMM) patients, and validated using the remaining 25%. IMM patients receive targeted clinical pharmacy input throughout their hospital stay. The algorithms were applied to the validation sample, and predicted risk probability was generated for each patient from the coefficients. Risk threshold for the algorithms were determined by identifying the cut-off points of risk scores at which the algorithm would have the highest discriminative performance. Clinical pharmacy staffing levels were obtained from the pharmacy department staffing database. Numbers of previous emergency admissions and admission medicines together with age-adjusted co-morbidity and diuretic receipt formed a 12-month post-discharge and/or readmission risk algorithm. Age-adjusted co-morbidity proved to be the best index to predict mortality. Increased numbers of clinical pharmacy staff at ward level was correlated with a reduction in risk-adjusted mortality index (RAMI). Algorithms created were valid in predicting risk of in-hospital and post-discharge mortality and risk of hospital readmission 3, 6 and 12 months post-discharge. The provision of ward-based clinical pharmacy services is a key component to reducing RAMI and enabling the full benefits of pharmacy input to patient care to be realized. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  10. Living with risk. A global review of disaster reduction initiatives. Preliminary version

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-01-01

    In recent years the world has witnessed an interminable succession of disasters - floods, storms, earthquakes, landslides, volcanic eruptions and wildfires that have claimed many thousands of lives, caused material losses in the tens of billions of dollars, and inflicted a terrible toll on developing countries in particular, where disasters divert attention and resources needed desperately to escape poverty. Communities will always face natural hazards, but today's disasters are often generated by, or at least exacerbated by, human activities. At the most dramatic level, human activities are changing the natural balance of the earth, interfering as never before with the atmosphere, the oceans, the polar ice caps, the forest cover and the natural pillars that make our world a livable home. But we are also putting ourselves in harm's way in less visible ways. At no time in human history have so many people lived in cities clustered around seismically active areas. Destitution and demographic pressure have led more people than ever before to live in flood plains or in areas prone to landslides. Poor land-use planning; environmental mismanagement; and a lack of regulatory mechanisms both increase the risk and exacerbate the effects of disasters. Living with risk: a global review of disaster reduction is the first comprehensive effort by the United Nations system to take stock of disaster reduction initiatives throughout the world. Coordinated by the secretariat of the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR), the report discusses current disaster trends, assesses policies aimed at mitigating the impact of disasters, and offers examples of successful initiatives. It also recommends that risk reduction be integrated into sustainable development at all levels - global, national and local. Most of all, Living with risk shows that we are far from helpless in the face of natural hazards. Early warning and risk reduction measures have been important factors in

  11. [Risk reduction and drug use in detention: study about the detainees of Liancourt Penitentiary].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sannier, Olivier; Verfaillie, Florent; Lavielle, Dorothée

    2012-07-01

    The prison population is drug users. Recent debates around the provision of devices to reduce the risks associated with drug use (syringe exchange programs and snort kit) lead us to question local practices of the prison population. An anonymous questionnaire was offered to the prison population of the Liancourt penitentiary. The questions addressed the use of drugs before and during incarceration, knowledge of HIV and B and C hepatitis status, taking an opiate substitution treatment and advice on the implementation of syringe exchange programs and snort kit. A percentage of 54.4 of the prisoners responded to the questionnaire. An amount of 60.1 % of respondents consumed at least one drug before incarceration and 43.6 % of respondents consumed at least one drug during their incarceration. Cannabis was the most consumed drug before and during incarceration. Barely half of respondents reported knowing their HIV and hepatitis B and C status. Over 10 % of respondents said they were interesting in establishing needle exchange programs or snort kit. The prison concentrate drug users and is not a repressive tool of efficient risk reduction. The strategies implemented by the medical unit of Liancourt prison require adaptations that warrant development of health resources. Then, only new tools to reduce risks associated with drug use can be established. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  12. A "Carbon Reduction Challenge" as tool for undergraduate engagement on climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cobb, K. M.; Toktay, B.

    2017-12-01

    Challenge represents a solutions-oriented, hands-on, project-based learning tool that has achieved significant pedagogical benefits while delivering real-world carbon reductions and cost savings to community stakeholders.

  13. Update on Risk Reduction Activities for a Liquid Advanced Booster for NASA's Space Launch System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crocker, Andrew M.; Greene, William D.

    2017-01-01

    The stated goals of NASA's Research Announcement for the Space Launch System (SLS) Advanced Booster Engineering Demonstration and/or Risk Reduction (ABEDRR) are to reduce risks leading to an affordable Advanced Booster that meets the evolved capabilities of SLS and enable competition by mitigating targeted Advanced Booster risks to enhance SLS affordability. Dynetics, Inc. and Aerojet Rocketdyne (AR) formed a team to offer a wide-ranging set of risk reduction activities and full-scale, system-level demonstrations that support NASA's ABEDRR goals. During the ABEDRR effort, the Dynetics Team has modified flight-proven Apollo-Saturn F-1 engine components and subsystems to improve affordability and reliability (e.g., reduce parts counts, touch labor, or use lower cost manufacturing processes and materials). The team has built hardware to validate production costs and completed tests to demonstrate it can meet performance requirements. State-of-the-art manufacturing and processing techniques have been applied to the heritage F-1, resulting in a low recurring cost engine while retaining the benefits of Apollo-era experience. NASA test facilities have been used to perform low-cost risk-reduction engine testing. In early 2014, NASA and the Dynetics Team agreed to move additional large liquid oxygen/kerosene engine work under Dynetics' ABEDRR contract. Also led by AR, the objectives of this work are to demonstrate combustion stability and measure performance of a 500,000 lbf class Oxidizer-Rich Staged Combustion (ORSC) cycle main injector. A trade study was completed to investigate the feasibility, cost effectiveness, and technical maturity of a domestically-produced engine that could potentially both replace the RD-180 on Atlas V and satisfy NASA SLS payload-to-orbit requirements via an advanced booster application. Engine physical dimensions and performance parameters resulting from this study provide the system level requirements for the ORSC risk reduction test article

  14. Use of GIS in the estimation and development of risk reduction technology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ha, Jae Joo

    1998-03-01

    The occurrence probability of a severe accident in the nuclear power plant is very small because the safety of a plant and the public is considered in the design and operation of a nuclear power plant. However, if a severe accident occurs, the establishment of a reduction strategy of damages resulting from it is essential because the effect of it on the human and the environment is very large. The important criterion which determines the severity of an accident is risk, which is defined as the product of its frequently and the consequence. The establishment of countermeasures in order to estimate and reduce risks quantitatively can be a very powerful tool to minimize the effect of an accident on the human and the environment. The research on the establishment of a framework which integrates a geographic information system (GIS), a database management system (DBMS), and decision making support system (DMSS) is considered very actively. Based on these systems, we can accomplish the estimation and display of risks and the development of reduction methodologies which are essential parts of an accident management of a nuclear power plant. The GIS plays a role to support users to systematize and comprehend spatial relationships of information which are necessary for the decision making. Through the DBMS, we can establish and manage spatial and attribute data, and use them in the query and selection. The DMSS is a computer-based information system which makes a necessary decision easily. In this study, we reviewed the fundamental concepts of a GIS and examined the methodology for the use of it in the estimation and display of risks. Also, we established the fundamental GIS platform of a Yonggwang site and the necessary database systems for the estimation of risks. (author). 17 refs., 9 tabs., 34 figs

  15. Advances in volcano monitoring and risk reduction in Latin America

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCausland, W. A.; White, R. A.; Lockhart, A. B.; Marso, J. N.; Assitance Program, V. D.; Volcano Observatories, L. A.

    2014-12-01

    We describe results of cooperative work that advanced volcanic monitoring and risk reduction. The USGS-USAID Volcano Disaster Assistance Program (VDAP) was initiated in 1986 after disastrous lahars during the 1985 eruption of Nevado del Ruiz dramatizedthe need to advance international capabilities in volcanic monitoring, eruption forecasting and hazard communication. For the past 28 years, VDAP has worked with our partners to improve observatories, strengthen monitoring networks, and train observatory personnel. We highlight a few of the many accomplishments by Latin American volcano observatories. Advances in monitoring, assessment and communication, and lessons learned from the lahars of the 1985 Nevado del Ruiz eruption and the 1994 Paez earthquake enabled the Servicio Geológico Colombiano to issue timely, life-saving warnings for 3 large syn-eruptive lahars at Nevado del Huila in 2007 and 2008. In Chile, the 2008 eruption of Chaitén prompted SERNAGEOMIN to complete a national volcanic vulnerability assessment that led to a major increase in volcano monitoring. Throughout Latin America improved seismic networks now telemeter data to observatories where the decades-long background rates and types of seismicity have been characterized at over 50 volcanoes. Standardization of the Earthworm data acquisition system has enabled data sharing across international boundaries, of paramount importance during both regional tectonic earthquakes and during volcanic crises when vulnerabilities cross international borders. Sharing of seismic forecasting methods led to the formation of the international organization of Latin American Volcano Seismologists (LAVAS). LAVAS courses and other VDAP training sessions have led to international sharing of methods to forecast eruptions through recognition of precursors and to reduce vulnerabilities from all volcano hazards (flows, falls, surges, gas) through hazard assessment, mapping and modeling. Satellite remote sensing data

  16. New GOES-R Risk Reduction Activities at CIRA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogers, M. A.; Miller, S. D.; Grasso, L. D.; Haynes, J. M.; NOH, Y. J.; Forsythe, J.; Zupanski, M.; Lindsey, D. T.

    2017-12-01

    A team of atmospheric scientists at the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA) at the Colorado State University has been selected by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) GOES-R Risk Reduction (GOES-R3) science program to develop applications to enhance the utilization of the GOES-R sensors, including the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) and the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM). The selected project topics follow NOAA's Research and Development Objectives listed in its 5-year Strategic Plan. The projects will be carried out over a three-year period which started on 1 July 2017 and will end on 30 June 2019. CIRA is working on five GOES-R3 application developments: 1) Developing an Environmental Awareness Repertoire of ABI Imagery (`DEAR-ABII') to Advise the Operational Weather Forecaster. DEAR-ABII maximizes the vast potential of the new GOES-R/GOES-16 sensor technology. 2) GOES-R ABI channel differencing used to reveal cloud-free zones of `precursors of convective initiation'. This product identifies where convective initiation may occur in cloud free skies. 3) Improving the ABI Cloud Layers Product for Multiple Layer Cloud Systems and Aviation Forecast Applications. This project aims to improve the GOES-16 cloud layer product by providing information on the boundaries of cloud layers even when one layer overlies another. 4) Using the New Capabilities of GOES-R to Improve Blended, Multisensor Water Vapor Products for Forecasters. GOES-R TPW retrievals will be merged with TPW derived from polar orbiter and surface data to improve the operational NOAA blended TPW product. 5) Data assimilation of GLM observations in HWRF/GSI system. Assimilation of GOES-R GLM observations for the NOAA operational hurricane model with the goal to improve operational hurricane forecasting. Examples for each of these applications will be presented.

  17. Pengaruh Brand Credibility Terhadap Information Efficiency Dan Risk Reduction, Serta Dampaknya Atas Repurchase Intention

    OpenAIRE

    Faisal, Aekram

    2015-01-01

    This research conducted to know the influence of Brand Credibility to Information efficiency and Risk reduction, also the influence of Information efficiency and Risk reduction to Repurchase intention. This research aimed to know the influence of Brand Credibility to Repurchase intention that mediated by Information efficiency and Risk reduction. The methodology of this research is testing hypothesis research. The sample collecting by questionnaire of 150 respondents from Starb...

  18. Relationships among Trust in Messages, Risk Perception, and Risk Reduction Preferences Based upon Avian Influenza in Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, David; Fang, Chen-Ling; Tsai, Bi-Kun; Lan, Li-Chi; Hsu, Wen-Shan

    2012-01-01

    Improvements in communications technology enable consumers to receive information through diverse channels. In the case of avian influenza, information repeated by the mass media socially amplifies the consumer awareness of risks. Facing indeterminate risks, consumers may feel anxious and increase their risk perception. When consumers trust the information published by the media, their uncertainty toward avian influenza may decrease. Consumers might take some actions to reduce risk. Therefore, this study focuses on relationships among trust in messages, risk perception and risk reduction preferences. This study administered 525 random samples and consumer survey questionnaires in different city of Taiwan in 2007. Through statistical analysis, the results demonstrate: (1) the higher the trust consumers have in messages about avian influenza, the lower their risk perceptions are; (2) the higher the consumers’ risk perceptions are and, therefore, the higher their desired level of risk reductive, the more likely they are to accept risk reduction strategies; (3) consumer attributes such as age, education level, and marital status correlate with significant differences in risk perception and risk reduction preferences acceptance. Gender has significant differences only in risk reduction preferences and not in risk perception. PMID:23066394

  19. Relationships among Trust in Messages, Risk Perception, and Risk Reduction Preferences Based upon Avian Influenza in Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wen-Shan Hsu

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Improvements in communications technology enable consumers to receive information through diverse channels. In the case of avian influenza, information repeated by the mass media socially amplifies the consumer awareness of risks. Facing indeterminate risks, consumers may feel anxious and increase their risk perception. When consumers trust the information published by the media, their uncertainty toward avian influenza may decrease. Consumers might take some actions to reduce risk. Therefore, this study focuses on relationships among trust in messages, risk perception and risk reduction preferences. This study administered 525 random samples and consumer survey questionnaires in different city of Taiwan in 2007. Through statistical analysis, the results demonstrate: (1 the higher the trust consumers have in messages about avian influenza, the lower their risk perceptions are; (2 the higher the consumers’ risk perceptions are and, therefore, the higher their desired level of risk reductive, the more likely they are to accept risk reduction strategies; (3 consumer attributes such as age, education level, and marital status correlate with significant differences in risk perception and risk reduction preferences acceptance. Gender has significant differences only in risk reduction preferences and not in risk perception.

  20. Risk monitor - a tool for operational safety assessment risk monitor - user's manual

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hari Prasad, M.; Vinod, Gopika; Saraf, R.K.; Ghosh, A.K.

    2006-06-01

    Probabilistic Safety Assessment has become a key tool as on today to identify and understand Nuclear Power Plant vulnerabilities. As a result of the availability of these PSA studies, there is a desire to use them to enhance plant safety and to operate the nuclear stations in the most efficient manner. Risk Monitor is a PC based tool, which computes the real time safety level and assists plant personnel to manage day-to-day activities. Risk Monitor is a PC based user friendly software tool used for modification and re-analysis of a nuclear Power plant. Operation of Risk Monitor is based on PSA methods for assisting in day to day applications. Risk Monitoring programs can assess the risk profile and are used to optimize the operation of Nuclear Power Plants with respect to a minimum risk level over the operating time. This report presents the background activities of Risk Monitor, its application areas and the step by step procedure for the user.to interact with the software. This software can be used with the PSA model of any Nuclear Power Plant. (author)

  1. A practical approach to assess depression risk and to guide risk reduction strategies in later life.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almeida, Osvaldo P; Alfonso, Helman; Pirkis, Jane; Kerse, Ngaire; Sim, Moira; Flicker, Leon; Snowdon, John; Draper, Brian; Byrne, Gerard; Goldney, Robert; Lautenschlager, Nicola T; Stocks, Nigel; Scazufca, Marcia; Huisman, Martijn; Araya, Ricardo; Pfaff, Jon

    2011-03-01

    Many factors have been associated with the onset and maintenance of depressive symptoms in later life, although this knowledge is yet to be translated into significant health gains for the population. This study gathered information about common modifiable and non-modifiable risk factors for depression with the aim of developing a practical probabilistic model of depression that can be used to guide risk reduction strategies. A cross-sectional study was undertaken of 20,677 community-dwelling Australians aged 60 years or over in contact with their general practitioner during the preceding 12 months. Prevalent depression (minor or major) according to the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9) assessment was the main outcome of interest. Other measured exposures included self-reported age, gender, education, loss of mother or father before age 15 years, physical or sexual abuse before age 15 years, marital status, financial stress, social support, smoking and alcohol use, physical activity, obesity, diabetes, hypertension, and prevalent cardiovascular diseases, chronic respiratory diseases and cancer. The mean age of participants was 71.7 ± 7.6 years and 57.9% were women. Depression was present in 1665 (8.0%) of our subjects. Multivariate logistic regression showed depression was independently associated with age older than 75 years, childhood adverse experiences, adverse lifestyle practices (smoking, risk alcohol use, physical inactivity), intermediate health hazards (obesity, diabetes and hypertension), comorbid medical conditions (clinical history of coronary heart disease, stroke, asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, emphysema or cancers), and social or financial strain. We stratified the exposures to build a matrix that showed that the probability of depression increased progressively with the accumulation of risk factors, from less than 3% for those with no adverse factors to more than 80% for people reporting the maximum number of risk factors. Our

  2. Risk management study for the Hanford Site facilities: Risk reduction cost comparison for the retired Hanford Site facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coles, G.A.; Egge, R.G.; Senger, E.; Shultz, M.W.; Taylor, W.E.

    1994-02-01

    This document provides a cost-comparison evaluation for implementing certain risk-reduction measures and their effect on the overall risk of the 100 and 200 Area retired, surplus facilities. The evaluation is based on conditions that existed at the time the risk evaluation team performed facility investigations, and does not acknowledge risk-reduction measures that occurred soon after risk identification. This evaluation is one part of an overall risk management study for these facilities. The retired facilities investigated for this evaluation are located in the 100 and 200 Areas of the 1450-km 2 Hanford Site. The Hanford Site is a semiarid tract of land in southeastern Washington State. The nearest population center is Richland, Washington, (population 32,000) 30 km southeast of the 200 Area. This cost-comparison evaluation (1) determines relative costs for reducing risk to acceptable levels; (2) compares the cost of reducing risk using different risk-reduction options; and (3) compares the cost of reducing risks at different facilities. The result is an identification of the cost effective risk-reduction measures. Supporting information required to develop costs of the various risk-reduction options also is included

  3. Risk management study for the Hanford Site facilities: Risk reduction cost comparison for the retired Hanford Site facilities. Volume 4

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coles, G.A.; Egge, R.G.; Senger, E.; Shultz, M.W.; Taylor, W.E.

    1994-02-01

    This document provides a cost-comparison evaluation for implementing certain risk-reduction measures and their effect on the overall risk of the 100 and 200 Area retired, surplus facilities. The evaluation is based on conditions that existed at the time the risk evaluation team performed facility investigations, and does not acknowledge risk-reduction measures that occurred soon after risk identification. This evaluation is one part of an overall risk management study for these facilities. The retired facilities investigated for this evaluation are located in the 100 and 200 Areas of the 1450-km{sup 2} Hanford Site. The Hanford Site is a semiarid tract of land in southeastern Washington State. The nearest population center is Richland, Washington, (population 32,000) 30 km southeast of the 200 Area. This cost-comparison evaluation (1) determines relative costs for reducing risk to acceptable levels; (2) compares the cost of reducing risk using different risk-reduction options; and (3) compares the cost of reducing risks at different facilities. The result is an identification of the cost effective risk-reduction measures. Supporting information required to develop costs of the various risk-reduction options also is included.

  4. Traditional and Local Knowledge Practices for Disaster Risk Reduction in Northern Ghana

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nsioh Macnight Ngwese

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available In order to deal with recurrent disasters, like floods and droughts coupled with the limited adaptive capacity, in the semiarid regions of Northern Ghana, local communities have no choice but to apply traditional and local knowledge practices. This study seeks to identify such practices employed in selected rural communities in Northern Ghana and to investigate their effectiveness. Data were collected through key informant interviews, household questionnaire surveys, focus group discussions, and participant observations. The findings indicated that although diverse practices were applied to predict and manage local disaster events, skepticism prevailed among locals toward these practices regarding their effectiveness. Due to the lack of science-based tools and systems for disaster prediction and management, local communities continually depended on these knowledge systems and practices. Integrating local and traditional disaster risk reduction (DRR efforts into modern scientific knowledge should be encouraged in order to reduce the vulnerability of local communities to disasters with thorough effectiveness evaluation protocols.

  5. Selecting a risk-based tool to aid in decision making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bendure, A.O.

    1995-03-01

    Selecting a risk-based tool to aid in decision making is as much of a challenge as properly using the tool once it has been selected. Failure to consider customer and stakeholder requirements and the technical bases and differences in risk-based decision making tools will produce confounding and/or politically unacceptable results when the tool is used. Selecting a risk-based decisionmaking tool must therefore be undertaken with the same, if not greater, rigor than the use of the tool once it is selected. This paper presents a process for selecting a risk-based tool appropriate to a set of prioritization or resource allocation tasks, discusses the results of applying the process to four risk-based decision-making tools, and identifies the ``musts`` for successful selection and implementation of a risk-based tool to aid in decision making.

  6. The fracture risk assessment tool (FRAX® score in subclinical hyperthyroidism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Polovina Snežana

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Background/Aim. The Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX® score is the 10-year estimated risk calculation tool for bone fracture that includes clinical data and hip bone mineral density measured by dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA. The aim of this cross-sectional study was to elucidate the ability of the FRAX® score in discriminating between bone fracture positive and negative pre- and post-menopausal women with subclinical hyperthyroidism. Methods. The bone mineral density (by DXA, thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH level, free thyroxine (fT4 level, thyroid peroxidase antibodies (TPOAb titre, osteocalcin and beta-cross-laps were measured in 27 pre- and post-menopausal women with newly discovered subclinical hyperthyroidism [age 58.85 ± 7.83 years, body mass index (BMI 27.89 ± 3.46 kg/m2, menopause onset in 46.88 ± 10.21 years] and 51 matched euthyroid controls (age 59.69 ± 5.72 years, BMI 27.68 ± 4.66 kg/m2, menopause onset in 48.53 ± 4.58 years. The etiology of subclinical hyperthyroisims was autoimmune thyroid disease or toxic goiter. FRAX® score calculation was performed in both groups. Results. In the group with subclinical hyperthyroidism the main FRAX® score was significantly higher than in the controls (6.50 ± 1.58 vs 4.35 ± 1.56 respectively; p = 0.015. The FRAX® score for hip was also higher in the evaluated group than in the controls (1.33 ± 3.92 vs 0.50 ± 0.46 respectively; p = 0.022. There was no correlations between low TSH and fracture risk (p > 0.05. The ability of the FRAX® score in discriminating between bone fracture positive and negative pre- and postmenopausal female subjects (p < 0.001 is presented by the area under the curve (AUC plotted via ROC analysis. The determined FRAX score cut-off value by this analysis was 6%, with estimated sensitivity and specificity of 95% and 75.9%, respectively. Conclusion. Pre- and postmenopausal women with subclinical hyperthyroidism have higher FRAX® scores and thus

  7. CONSIDERATIONS IN RISK COMMUNICATION: A DIGEST OF RISK COMMUNICATION AS A RISK MANAGEMENT TOOL

    Science.gov (United States)

    Risk communication is the process of informing people about hazards. Like all communication, communicating risk is a two-way exchange in which you inform the target community about possible hazards, but also gather information about those affected by the risk. The purpose of risk...

  8. Short and long term efficiencies of debris risk reduction measures: Application to a European LEO mission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lang, T.; Kervarc, R.; Bertrand, S.; Carle, P.; Donath, T.; Destefanis, R.; Grassi, L.; Tiboldo, F.; Schäfer, F.; Kempf, S.; Gelhaus, J.

    2015-01-01

    Recent numerical studies indicate that the low Earth orbit (LEO) debris environment has reached a point such that even if no further space launches were conducted, the Earth satellite population would remain relatively constant for only the next 50 years or so. Beyond that, the debris population would begin to increase noticeably, due to the production of collisional debris (Liou and Johnson, 2008). Measures to be enforced play thus a major role to preserve an acceptable space mission risk and ensure sustainable space activities. The identification of such measures and the quantification of their efficiency over time for LEO missions is of prime concern in the decision-making process, as it has been investigated for the last few decades by the Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC). This paper addresses the final results of a generic methodology and the characteristics of a tool developed to assess the efficiency of the risk reduction measures identified for the Sentinel-1 (S1) mission. This work is performed as part of the 34-month P2-ROTECT project (Prediction, Protection & Reduction of OrbiTal Exposure to Collision Threats), funded by the European Union within the Seventh Framework Programme. Three ways of risk reduction have been investigated, both in short and long-term, namely: better satellite protection, better conjunction prediction, and cleaner environment. According to our assumptions, the S1 mission vulnerability evaluations in the long term (from 2093 to 2100) show that full compliance to the mitigation measures leads to a situation twice safer than that induced by an active debris removal of 5 objects per year in a MASTER2009 Business-As-Usual context. Because these measures have visible risk reduction effects in the long term, complementary measures with short response time are also studied. In the short term (from 2013 to 2020), a better prediction of the conjunctions is more efficient than protecting the satellite S1 itself. By

  9. Predicting complication risk in spine surgery: a prospective analysis of a novel risk assessment tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veeravagu, Anand; Li, Amy; Swinney, Christian; Tian, Lu; Moraff, Adrienne; Azad, Tej D; Cheng, Ivan; Alamin, Todd; Hu, Serena S; Anderson, Robert L; Shuer, Lawrence; Desai, Atman; Park, Jon; Olshen, Richard A; Ratliff, John K

    2017-07-01

    OBJECTIVE The ability to assess the risk of adverse events based on known patient factors and comorbidities would provide more effective preoperative risk stratification. Present risk assessment in spine surgery is limited. An adverse event prediction tool was developed to predict the risk of complications after spine surgery and tested on a prospective patient cohort. METHODS The spinal Risk Assessment Tool (RAT), a novel instrument for the assessment of risk for patients undergoing spine surgery that was developed based on an administrative claims database, was prospectively applied to 246 patients undergoing 257 spinal procedures over a 3-month period. Prospectively collected data were used to compare the RAT to the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) and the American College of Surgeons National Surgery Quality Improvement Program (ACS NSQIP) Surgical Risk Calculator. Study end point was occurrence and type of complication after spine surgery. RESULTS The authors identified 69 patients (73 procedures) who experienced a complication over the prospective study period. Cardiac complications were most common (10.2%). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were calculated to compare complication outcomes using the different assessment tools. Area under the curve (AUC) analysis showed comparable predictive accuracy between the RAT and the ACS NSQIP calculator (0.670 [95% CI 0.60-0.74] in RAT, 0.669 [95% CI 0.60-0.74] in NSQIP). The CCI was not accurate in predicting complication occurrence (0.55 [95% CI 0.48-0.62]). The RAT produced mean probabilities of 34.6% for patients who had a complication and 24% for patients who did not (p = 0.0003). The generated predicted values were stratified into low, medium, and high rates. For the RAT, the predicted complication rate was 10.1% in the low-risk group (observed rate 12.8%), 21.9% in the medium-risk group (observed 31.8%), and 49.7% in the high-risk group (observed 41.2%). The ACS NSQIP calculator consistently

  10. Update on Risk Reduction Activities for a Liquid Advanced Booster for NASA's Space Launch System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crocker, Andrew M.; Doering, Kimberly B; Meadows, Robert G.; Lariviere, Brian W.; Graham, Jerry B.

    2015-01-01

    objectives of this work are to demonstrate combustion stability and measure performance of a 500,000 lbf class Oxidizer-Rich Staged Combustion (ORSC) cycle main injector. A trade study was completed to investigate the feasibility, cost effectiveness, and technical maturity of a domestically produced Atlas V engine that could also potentially satisfy NASA SLS payload-to-orbit requirements via an advanced booster application. Engine physical dimensions and performance parameters resulting from this study provide the system level requirements for the ORSC risk reduction test article. The test article is scheduled to complete critical design review this fall and begin testing in 2017. Dynetics has also designed, developed, and built innovative tank and structure assemblies using friction stir welding to leverage recent NASA investments in manufacturing tools, facilities, and processes, significantly reducing development and recurring costs. The full-scale cryotank assembly was used to verify the structural design and prove affordable processes. Dynetics performed hydrostatic and cryothermal proof tests on the assembly to verify the assembly meets performance requirements. This paper will discuss the ABEDRR engine task and structures task achievements to date and the remaining effort through the end of the contract.

  11. Mitigating fall risk: A community fall reduction program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reinoso, Humberto; McCaffrey, Ruth G; Taylor, David W M

    One fourth of all American's over 65 years of age fall each year. Falls are a common and often devastating event that can pose a serious health risk for older adults. Healthcare providers are often unable to spend the time required to assist older adults with fall risk issues. Without a team approach to fall prevention the system remains focused on fragmented levels of health promotion and risk prevention. The specific aim of this project was to engage older adults from the community in a fall risk assessment program, using the Stopping Elderly Accidents, Deaths & Injuries (STEADI) program, and provide feedback on individual participants' risks that participants could share with their primary care physician. Older adults who attended the risk screening were taking medications that are known to increase falls. They mentioned that their health care providers do not screen for falls and appreciated a community based screening. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Reduction of regulatory risk: a network economic approach

    OpenAIRE

    Knieps, Günter; Weiß, Hans-Jörg

    2007-01-01

    Several definitions of regulatory risk are known from the literature. From the perspective of regulatory reform it is important to differentiate between the impact of a given regulatory scheme on the firm's risk exposure and the risk arising from discretionary behavior of regulatory agencies. Whereas the conse-quences of effective regulation in principle are known and accepted, excessive regulatory discretion may cause a strong need for regulatory reform. Regulatory reform focussing on the re...

  13. Visual Impairment/lntracranial Pressure Risk Clinical Care Data Tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Baalen, Mary; Mason, Sara S.; Taiym, Wafa; Wear, Mary L.; Moynihan, Shannan; Alexander, David; Hart, Steve; Tarver, William

    2014-01-01

    Prior to 2010, several ISS crewmembers returned from spaceflight with changes to their vision, ranging from a mild hyperopic shift to frank disc edema. As a result, NASA expanded clinical vision testing to include more comprehensive medical imaging, including Optical Coherence Tomography and 3 Tesla Brain and Orbit MRIs. The Space and Clinical Operations (SCO) Division developed a clinical practice guideline that classified individuals based on their symptoms and diagnoses to facilitate clinical care. For the purposes of clinical surveillance, this classification was applied retrospectively to all crewmembers who had sufficient testing for classification. This classification is also a tool that has been leveraged for researchers to identify potential risk factors. In March 2014, driven in part by a more comprehensive understanding of the imaging data and increased imaging capability on orbit, the SCO Division revised their clinical care guidance to outline in-flight care and increase post-flight follow up. The new clinical guidance does not include a classification scheme

  14. Preoperative risk assessment among women undergoing bilateral prophylactic mastectomy for cancer risk reduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rueth, Natasha M; McMahon, Melissa; Arrington, Amanda K; Swenson, Karen; Leach, Joseph; Tuttle, Todd M

    2011-09-01

    Cancer risk assessment is an important decision-making tool for women considering irreversible risk-reducing surgery. Our objective was to determine the prevalence of BRCA testing among women undergoing bilateral prophylactic mastectomy (BPM) and to review the characteristics of women who choose BPM within a metropolitan setting. We retrospectively reviewed records of women who underwent BPM in the absence of cancer within 2 health care systems that included 5 metropolitan hospitals. Women with invasive carcinoma or ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) were excluded; neither lobular carcinoma in situ (LCIS) nor atypical hyperplasia (AH) were exclusion criteria. We collected demographic information and preoperative screening and risk assessment, BRCA testing, reconstruction, and associated cancer risk-reducing surgery data. We compared women who underwent BRCA testing to those not tested. From January 2002 to July 2009, a total of 71 BPMs were performed. Only 25 women (35.2%) had preoperative BRCA testing; 88% had a BRCA mutation. Compared with tested women, BRCA nontested women were significantly older (39.1 vs. 49.2 years, P < 0.001), had significantly more preoperative biopsies and mammograms and had fewer previous or simultaneous cancer risk-reducing surgery (oophorectomy). Among BRCA nontested women, common indications for BPM were family history of breast cancer (n = 21, 45.6%) or LCIS or AH (n = 16, 34.8%); 9 nontested women (19.6%) chose BPM based on exclusively on cancer-risk anxiety or personal preference. Most women who underwent BPM did not receive preoperative genetic testing. Further studies are needed to corroborate our findings in other geographic regions and practice settings.

  15. Incentivising flood risk adaptation through ris based insurance premiums: trade-offs between affordability and risk reduction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hudson, P.G.M.B.; Botzen, W.J.W.; Feyen, L.; Aerts, J.C.J.H.

    2016-01-01

    The financial incentives offered by the risk-based pricing of insurance can stimulate policyholder adaptation to flood risk while potentially conflicting with affordability. We examine the trade-off between risk reduction and affordability in a model of public-private flood insurance in France and

  16. Risk monitor-a tool for computer aided risk assessment for NPPs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vinod, Gopika; Saraf, R.K.; Babar, A.K.; Kushwaha, H.S.; Hadap, Nikhil

    2001-01-01

    Considerable changes occur in components status and system design and subsequent operation due to changes in plant configuration and their operating procedures. These changes are organised because some components are randomly down and other can be planned for test, maintenance and repair. This results in a fluctuation of risk level over operating time, which is termed as risk profile. Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) is an analytical technique for assessing the risk by integrating diverse aspects of design and operation of a Nuclear Power Plant. Risk can be defined as the product of the probability of an accident and the consequences from that accident. Reactor Safety Division of BARC has developed PC based tool, which can assess the risk profile. This package can be used to optimise the operation in Nuclear Power Plants with respect to a minimum risk level over the operating time, and is termed as Risk Monitor. Risk Monitor is user friendly and can re-evaluate core damage frequency for changes in component status, test interval, initiating event frequency etc. Plant restoration advice, when the plant is in high risk configuration, current status of all plant equipment, and equipment prioritization are also provided by the package. (author)

  17. Citizen science for hydrological risk reduction and resilience building

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Paul, Jonathan D.; Buytaert, Wouter; Allen, Simon; Ballesteros‐Cánovas, Juan A.; Bhusal, Jagat K.; Cieslik, Katarzyna; Clark, Julian; Dugar, Sumit; Hannah, David M.; Stoffel, M.; Dewulf, A.R.P.J.; Dhital, Megh R.; Liu, Wei; Nayaval, Janak Lal; Neupane, Bhanu; Schiller, Arnulf; Smith, P.J.; Supper, Robert

    2017-01-01

    In disaster risk management (DRM), an emerging shift has been noted from broad-scale, top-down assessments toward more participatory, community-based, bottom-up approaches. Arguably, nonscientist local stakeholders have always played an important role in knowledge risk management and resilience

  18. Risk reduction by use of a buffer zone

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wijnant-Timmerman, S.L.; Wiersma, T.

    2008-01-01

    In situations where chemical industries and residential areas are situated close to each other, the population runs a safety risk associated with the accidental release of toxic gases. TNO has investigated the possibilities to reduce this risk by integrating safety measures in the area between the

  19. Valuation of morbidity and mortality risk reductions. Does context matter?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Seested Nielsen, Jytte; Gyrd-Hansen, Dorte; Kjær, Trine

    2012-01-01

    targeting risks of death or risks of ill health should not necessarily be valued equally across sectors. From a welfare economic perspective, the use of the same estimates across contexts – and especially across sectors – could be misleading and in worst case lead to inefficient resource allocations....

  20. Energy Saving Melting and Revert Reduction Technology (E-SMARRT): Design Support for Tooling Optimization

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Dongtao

    2011-09-23

    High pressure die casting is an intrinsically efficient net shape process and improvements in energy efficiency are strongly dependent on design and process improvements that reduce scrap rates so that more of the total consumed energy goes into acceptable, usable castings. Computer simulation has become widely used within the industry but use is not universal. Further, many key design decisions must be made before the simulation can be run and expense in terms of money and time often limits the number of decision iterations that can be explored. This work continues several years of work creating simple, very fast, design tools that can assist with the early stage design decisions so that the benefits of simulation can be maximized and, more importantly, so that the chances of first shot success are maximized. First shot success and better running processes contributes to less scrap and significantly better energy utilization by the process. This new technology was predicted to result in an average energy savings of 1.83 trillion BTUs/year over a 10 year period. Current (2011) annual energy saving estimates over a ten year period, based on commercial introduction in 2012, a market penetration of 30% by 2015 is 1.89 trillion BTUs/year by 2022. Along with these energy savings, reduction of scrap and improvement in yield will result in a reduction of the environmental emissions associated with the melting and pouring of the metal which will be saved as a result of this technology. The average annual estimate of CO2 reduction per year through 2022 is 0.037 Million Metric Tons of Carbon Equivalent (MM TCE).

  1. The possibility of drought risk reduction in corn production

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pajić Nemanja

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Weather derivatives are contemporary instruments for insurance risk of drought in agricultural production. Corn production is particularly sensitive to this risk, and the amount of the yield of this crop is in significant correlation with the July-August rainfall amount. Oscillations of production output, caused by the risk of drought, are reflected directly on the fluctuations of the financial result. The application of weather derivatives may decrease the variability of the mentioned economic parameter in corn production. In the investigated example of corn production, simulating the application of the weather option the coefficient of variation of realized financial results decreased by 9.64% compared to the version without the insured risk. At the same time, using the analysed insurance instrument, the risk of achieving a negative financial result is eliminated.

  2. Social dataset analysis and mapping tools for Risk Perception: resilience, people preparation and communication tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peters-Guarin, Graciela; Garcia, Carolina; Frigerio, Simone

    2010-05-01

    Perception has been identified as resource and part of the resilience of a community to disasters. Risk perception, if present, may determine the potential damage a household or community experience. Different levels of risk perception and preparedness can influence directly people's susceptibility and the way they might react in case of an emergency caused by natural hazards. In spite of the profuse literature about risk perception, works to spatially portray this feature are really scarce. The spatial relationship to danger or hazard is being recognised as an important factor of the risk equation; it can be used as a powerful tool either for better knowledge or for operational reasons (e.g. management of preventive information). Risk perception and people's awareness when displayed in a spatial format can be useful for several actors in the risk management arena. Local authorities and civil protection can better address educational activities to increase the preparation of particularly vulnerable groups of clusters of households within a community. It can also be useful for the emergency personal in order to optimally direct the actions in case of an emergency. In the framework of the Marie Curie Research Project, a Community Based Early Warning System (CBEWS) it's been developed in the Mountain Community Valtellina of Tirano, northern Italy. This community has been continuously exposed to different mass movements and floods, in particular, a large event in 1987 which affected a large portion of the valley and left 58 dead. The actual emergency plan for the study area is composed by a real time, highly detailed, decision support system. This emergency plan contains detailed instructions for the rapid deployment of civil protection and other emergency personal in case of emergency, for risk scenarios previously defined. Especially in case of a large event, where timely reaction is crucial for reducing casualties, it is important for those in charge of emergency

  3. Insurance, Public Assistance, and Household Flood Risk Reduction: A Comparative Study of Austria, England, and Romania.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanger, Susanne; Linnerooth-Bayer, Joanne; Surminski, Swenja; Nenciu-Posner, Cristina; Lorant, Anna; Ionescu, Radu; Patt, Anthony

    2018-04-01

    In light of increasing losses from floods, many researchers and policymakers are looking for ways to encourage flood risk reduction among communities, business, and households. In this study, we investigate risk-reduction behavior at the household level in three European Union Member States with fundamentally different insurance and compensation schemes. We try to understand if and how insurance and public assistance influence private risk-reduction behavior. Data were collected using a telephone survey (n = 1,849) of household decisionmakers in flood-prone areas. We show that insurance overall is positively associated with private risk-reduction behavior. Warranties, premium discounts, and information provision with respect to risk reduction may be an explanation for this positive relationship in the case of structural measures. Public incentives for risk-reduction measures by means of financial and in-kind support, and particularly through the provision of information, are also associated with enhancing risk reduction. In this study, public compensation is not negatively associated with private risk-reduction behavior. This does not disprove such a relationship, but the negative effect may be mitigated by factors related to respondents' capacity to implement measures or social norms that were not included in the analysis. The data suggest that large-scale flood protection infrastructure creates a sense of security that is associated with a lower level of preparedness. Across the board there is ample room to improve both public and private policies to provide effective incentives for household-level risk reduction. © 2017 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

  4. Transcultural adaptation of the Johns Hopkins Fall Risk Assessment Tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinez, Maria Carmen; Iwamoto, Viviane Ernesto; Latorre, Maria do Rosário Dias de Oliveira; Noronha, Adriana Moreira; Oliveira, Ana Paula de Sousa; Cardoso, Carlos Eduardo Alves; Marques, Ifigenia Augusta Braga; Vendramim, Patrícia; Lopes, Paula Cristina; Sant'Ana, Thais Helena Saes de

    2016-08-29

    to perform the transcultural adaptation and content validity analysis of the Johns Hopkins Fall Risk Assessment Tool to assess both fall risk and fall-related injury risk for hospitalized elderly in Brazil. the transcultural adaptation consisted of translating the scale to Portuguese (Brazil), back-translating it into its language of origin, establishing a consensus version, and having an expert committee verify its transcultural equivalence. Content assessment was conducted by a committee of judges, ending with the calculation of the items and scales' content validity index. Nurses tested the tool. the scale's translated version went through two evaluation rounds by the judges, based on which, the items with unsatisfactory performance were changed. The content validity index for the items was ≥80.0% and the global index 97.1%. The experimental application showed the scale is user-friendly. the scale presents valid content for the assessment of fall risk and risk of fall-related injuries and is easy to use, with the potential to contribute to the proper identification of risks and the establishment of care actions. realizar a adaptação transcultural para uso no Brasil e a avaliação da validade de conteúdo da Johns Hopkins Fall Risk Assessment Tool para avaliação de risco de quedas e de danos por quedas em pacientes adultos hospitalizados. adaptação transcultural consistiu na tradução da escala para a língua portuguesa (Brasil), retrotradução para a língua de origem, versão de consenso e análise da equivalência transcultural por um comitê de especialistas. A avaliação do conteúdo foi realizada por meio de um comitê de juízes, finalizando com o cálculo do índice de validade de conteúdo dos itens e da escala. Foi realizada a aplicação experimental do instrumento por enfermeiros. a versão traduzida da escala passou por duas rodadas de avaliação pelos juízes, a partir das quais os itens com desempenho insatisfatório foram modificados

  5. An ensemble model of QSAR tools for regulatory risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pradeep, Prachi; Povinelli, Richard J; White, Shannon; Merrill, Stephen J

    2016-01-01

    Quantitative structure activity relationships (QSARs) are theoretical models that relate a quantitative measure of chemical structure to a physical property or a biological effect. QSAR predictions can be used for chemical risk assessment for protection of human and environmental health, which makes them interesting to regulators, especially in the absence of experimental data. For compatibility with regulatory use, QSAR models should be transparent, reproducible and optimized to minimize the number of false negatives. In silico QSAR tools are gaining wide acceptance as a faster alternative to otherwise time-consuming clinical and animal testing methods. However, different QSAR tools often make conflicting predictions for a given chemical and may also vary in their predictive performance across different chemical datasets. In a regulatory context, conflicting predictions raise interpretation, validation and adequacy concerns. To address these concerns, ensemble learning techniques in the machine learning paradigm can be used to integrate predictions from multiple tools. By leveraging various underlying QSAR algorithms and training datasets, the resulting consensus prediction should yield better overall predictive ability. We present a novel ensemble QSAR model using Bayesian classification. The model allows for varying a cut-off parameter that allows for a selection in the desirable trade-off between model sensitivity and specificity. The predictive performance of the ensemble model is compared with four in silico tools (Toxtree, Lazar, OECD Toolbox, and Danish QSAR) to predict carcinogenicity for a dataset of air toxins (332 chemicals) and a subset of the gold carcinogenic potency database (480 chemicals). Leave-one-out cross validation results show that the ensemble model achieves the best trade-off between sensitivity and specificity (accuracy: 83.8 % and 80.4 %, and balanced accuracy: 80.6 % and 80.8 %) and highest inter-rater agreement [kappa ( κ ): 0

  6. New risk metrics and mathematical tools for risk analysis: Current and future challenges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Skandamis, Panagiotis N.; Andritsos, Nikolaos; Psomas, Antonios; Paramythiotis, Spyridon

    2015-01-01

    The current status of the food safety supply world wide, has led Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO) to establishing Risk Analysis as the single framework for building food safety control programs. A series of guidelines and reports that detail out the various steps in Risk Analysis, namely Risk Management, Risk Assessment and Risk Communication is available. The Risk Analysis approach enables integration between operational food management systems, such as Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points, public health and governmental decisions. To do that, a series of new Risk Metrics has been established as follows: i) the Appropriate Level of Protection (ALOP), which indicates the maximum numbers of illnesses in a population per annum, defined by quantitative risk assessments, and used to establish; ii) Food Safety Objective (FSO), which sets the maximum frequency and/or concentration of a hazard in a food at the time of consumption that provides or contributes to the ALOP. Given that ALOP is rather a metric of the public health tolerable burden (it addresses the total ‘failure’ that may be handled at a national level), it is difficult to be interpreted into control measures applied at the manufacturing level. Thus, a series of specific objectives and criteria for performance of individual processes and products have been established, all of them assisting in the achievement of FSO and hence, ALOP. In order to achieve FSO, tools quantifying the effect of processes and intrinsic properties of foods on survival and growth of pathogens are essential. In this context, predictive microbiology and risk assessment have offered an important assistance to Food Safety Management. Predictive modelling is the basis of exposure assessment and the development of stochastic and kinetic models, which are also available in the form of Web-based applications, e.g., COMBASE and Microbial Responses Viewer), or introduced into user

  7. New risk metrics and mathematical tools for risk analysis: Current and future challenges

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Skandamis, Panagiotis N., E-mail: pskan@aua.gr; Andritsos, Nikolaos, E-mail: pskan@aua.gr; Psomas, Antonios, E-mail: pskan@aua.gr; Paramythiotis, Spyridon, E-mail: pskan@aua.gr [Laboratory of Food Quality Control and Hygiene, Department of Food Science and Technology, Agricultural University of Athens, Iera Odos 75, 118 55, Athens (Greece)

    2015-01-22

    The current status of the food safety supply world wide, has led Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO) to establishing Risk Analysis as the single framework for building food safety control programs. A series of guidelines and reports that detail out the various steps in Risk Analysis, namely Risk Management, Risk Assessment and Risk Communication is available. The Risk Analysis approach enables integration between operational food management systems, such as Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points, public health and governmental decisions. To do that, a series of new Risk Metrics has been established as follows: i) the Appropriate Level of Protection (ALOP), which indicates the maximum numbers of illnesses in a population per annum, defined by quantitative risk assessments, and used to establish; ii) Food Safety Objective (FSO), which sets the maximum frequency and/or concentration of a hazard in a food at the time of consumption that provides or contributes to the ALOP. Given that ALOP is rather a metric of the public health tolerable burden (it addresses the total ‘failure’ that may be handled at a national level), it is difficult to be interpreted into control measures applied at the manufacturing level. Thus, a series of specific objectives and criteria for performance of individual processes and products have been established, all of them assisting in the achievement of FSO and hence, ALOP. In order to achieve FSO, tools quantifying the effect of processes and intrinsic properties of foods on survival and growth of pathogens are essential. In this context, predictive microbiology and risk assessment have offered an important assistance to Food Safety Management. Predictive modelling is the basis of exposure assessment and the development of stochastic and kinetic models, which are also available in the form of Web-based applications, e.g., COMBASE and Microbial Responses Viewer), or introduced into user

  8. New risk metrics and mathematical tools for risk analysis: Current and future challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skandamis, Panagiotis N.; Andritsos, Nikolaos; Psomas, Antonios; Paramythiotis, Spyridon

    2015-01-01

    The current status of the food safety supply world wide, has led Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO) to establishing Risk Analysis as the single framework for building food safety control programs. A series of guidelines and reports that detail out the various steps in Risk Analysis, namely Risk Management, Risk Assessment and Risk Communication is available. The Risk Analysis approach enables integration between operational food management systems, such as Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points, public health and governmental decisions. To do that, a series of new Risk Metrics has been established as follows: i) the Appropriate Level of Protection (ALOP), which indicates the maximum numbers of illnesses in a population per annum, defined by quantitative risk assessments, and used to establish; ii) Food Safety Objective (FSO), which sets the maximum frequency and/or concentration of a hazard in a food at the time of consumption that provides or contributes to the ALOP. Given that ALOP is rather a metric of the public health tolerable burden (it addresses the total `failure' that may be handled at a national level), it is difficult to be interpreted into control measures applied at the manufacturing level. Thus, a series of specific objectives and criteria for performance of individual processes and products have been established, all of them assisting in the achievement of FSO and hence, ALOP. In order to achieve FSO, tools quantifying the effect of processes and intrinsic properties of foods on survival and growth of pathogens are essential. In this context, predictive microbiology and risk assessment have offered an important assistance to Food Safety Management. Predictive modelling is the basis of exposure assessment and the development of stochastic and kinetic models, which are also available in the form of Web-based applications, e.g., COMBASE and Microbial Responses Viewer), or introduced into user-friendly softwares

  9. Degree of Agreement between Cardiovascular Risk Stratification Tools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, Guilherme Thomé; Stamm, Ana Maria Nunes de Faria; Rosa, Ariel Córdova; Marasciulo, Antônio Carlos; Marasciulo, Rodrigo Conill; Battistella, Cristian; Remor, Alexandre Augusto de Costa

    2017-05-01

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality in Brazil, and primary prevention care may be guided by risk stratification tools. The Framingham (FRS) and QRISK-2 (QRS) risk scores estimate 10-year overall cardiovascular risk in asymptomatic individuals, but the instrument of choice may lead to different therapeutic strategies. To evaluate the degree of agreement between FRS and QRS in 10-year overall cardiovascular risk stratification in disease-free individuals. Cross-sectional, observational, descriptive and analytical study in a convenience sample of 74 individuals attending the outpatient care service of a university hospital in Brazil between January 2014 and January 2015. After application of FRS and QRS, patients were classified in low/moderate risk (Brasil, e a prevenção primária pode ser direcionada com ferramentas que estratificam o risco. Os escores de Framingham (ERF) e QRISK-2 (ERQ) estimam o risco cardiovascular (RCV) global em 10 anos em indivíduos assintomáticos, mas a escolha do instrumento pode implicar em terapêuticas distintas. Observar o grau de concordância entre o ERF e o ERQ, na estratificação do risco cardiovascular global em 10 anos, nos indivíduos livres da doença. Estudo transversal, observacional, descritivo e analítico, com uma amostra de conveniência de 74 indivíduos, atendidos em um ambulatório de ensino de um hospital universitário brasileiro, no sul do país, de janeiro de 2014 a janeiro de 2015. O ERF e o ERQ foram aplicados nos pacientes, que foram classificados em baixo/moderado (superior no ERF que no ERQ (33,7% vs 21,6%), sendo identificado efeito sinérgico do gênero masculino com hipertensão arterial sistêmica nas duas ferramentas, e com faixa etária geriátrica no ERQ (p < 0,05) nesse estrato de risco. O índice de concordância Kappa entre os dois escores foi igual a 0,519 (IC95% = 0,386-0,652; p < 0,001). Houve concordância moderada entre o ERF e o ERQ, na estimativa de

  10. Risk reduction of international mining projects by means of investor consortia and diversification of external financing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirchner, C.

    1982-01-01

    Investors and creditors of international mining projects bear specific risks which may be reduced by means of forming investor and financing consortia. Risk is defined for each actor separately. Project risk and investor risk respectively credit risk are useful categories in order to analyze risk reduction. In each case formation of consortia has a positive influence on the economic viability of the project, and thus reduces the project risk. Furthermore, formation of consortia leads to better compliance of the host country of the mining project with the project and financing agreements. Thus, investor and credit risk may be reduced. (orig.) [de

  11. Surging Seas Risk Finder: A Tool for Local-Scale Flood Risk Assessments in Coastal Cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kulp, S. A.; Strauss, B.

    2015-12-01

    Local decision makers in coastal cities require accurate, accessible, and thorough assessments of flood exposure risk within their individual municipality, in their efforts to mitigate against damage due to future sea level rise. To fill this need, we have developed Climate Central's Surging Seas Risk Finder, an interactive data toolkit which presents our sea level rise and storm surge analysis for every coastal town, city, county, and state within the USA. Using this tool, policy makers can easily zoom in on their local place of interest to receive a detailed flood risk assessment, which synthesizes a wide range of features including total population, socially vulnerable population, housing, property value, road miles, power plants, schools, hospitals, and many other critical facilities. Risk Finder can also be used to identify specific points of interest in danger of exposure at different flood levels. Additionally, this tool provides localized storm surge probabilities and sea level rise projections at tidal gauges along the coast, so that users can quickly understand the risk of flooding in their area over the coming decades.

  12. Integrated risk reduction framework to improve railway hazardous materials transportation safety

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, Xiang, E-mail: liu94@illinois.edu; Saat, M. Rapik, E-mail: mohdsaat@illinois.edu; Barkan, Christopher P.L., E-mail: cbarkan@illinois.edu

    2013-09-15

    Highlights: • An integrated framework is developed to optimize risk reduction. • A negative binomial regression model is developed to analyze accident-cause-specific railcar derailment probability. • A Pareto-optimality technique is applied to determine the lowest risk given any level of resource. • A multi-attribute decision model is developed to determine the optimal amount of investment for risk reduction. • The models could aid the government and rail industry in developing cost-efficient risk reduction policy and practice. -- Abstract: Rail transportation plays a critical role to safely and efficiently transport hazardous materials. A number of strategies have been implemented or are being developed to reduce the risk of hazardous materials release from train accidents. Each of these risk reduction strategies has its safety benefit and corresponding implementation cost. However, the cost effectiveness of the integration of different risk reduction strategies is not well understood. Meanwhile, there has been growing interest in the U.S. rail industry and government to best allocate resources for improving hazardous materials transportation safety. This paper presents an optimization model that considers the combination of two types of risk reduction strategies, broken rail prevention and tank car safety design enhancement. A Pareto-optimality technique is used to maximize risk reduction at a given level of investment. The framework presented in this paper can be adapted to address a broader set of risk reduction strategies and is intended to assist decision makers for local, regional and system-wide risk management of rail hazardous materials transportation.

  13. The development of a practical tool for risk assessment of manual work – the HAT-tool

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kraker, H. de; Douwes, M.

    2008-01-01

    For the Dutch Ministry of Social Affairs and Employment we developed a tool to assess the risks of developing complaints of the arm, neck or shoulders during manual work. The tool was developed for every type of organization and is easy to use, does not require measurements other than time and can

  14. Harnessing farmers' knowledge and perceptions for health-risk reduction in wastewater-irrigated agriculture

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Keraita, Bernard; Drechsel, Pay; Seidu, Razak

    2009-01-01

    This chapter addresses the importance of understanding farmers' knowledge and perceptions on health-risk and risk-reduction measures for the development of mutually acceptable risk-management strategies. Drawing on studies from different countries, the chapter shows that it is not realistic to ex...

  15. Harnessing Farmers' knowledge and perceptions for health-risk reduction in wastewater-irrigated agriculture

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Keraita, Bernhard; Drechsel, Pay; Seidu, Razak

    2010-01-01

    This chapter addresses the importance of understanding farmers’ knowledge and perceptions on health-risk and risk-reduction measures for the development of mutually acceptable risk-management strategies. Drawing on studies from different countries, the chapter shows that it is not realistic to ex...

  16. Fracture risk assessed by Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) compared with fracture risk derived from population fracture rates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rubin, Katrine Hass; Abrahamsen, Bo; Hermann, Anne Pernille

    2011-01-01

    Purpose: To evaluate the performance of the Swedish version of Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX)) without bone mass density (BMD) in a Danish population to examine the possibility of applying this version to Danish women. METHODS: From the Danish National Register of social security numbers, we...

  17. Nutritional Risk Screening 2002, Short Nutritional Assessment Questionnaire, Malnutrition Screening Tool, and Malnutrition Universal Screening Tool Are Good Predictors of Nutrition Risk in an Emergency Service.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rabito, Estela Iraci; Marcadenti, Aline; da Silva Fink, Jaqueline; Figueira, Luciane; Silva, Flávia Moraes

    2017-08-01

    There is an international consensus that nutrition screening be performed at the hospital; however, there is no "best tool" for screening of malnutrition risk in hospitalized patients. To evaluate (1) the accuracy of the MUST (Malnutrition Universal Screening Tool), MST (Malnutrition Screening Tool), and SNAQ (Short Nutritional Assessment Questionnaire) in comparison with the NRS-2002 (Nutritional Risk Screening 2002) to identify patients at risk of malnutrition and (2) the ability of these nutrition screening tools to predict morbidity and mortality. A specific questionnaire was administered to complete the 4 screening tools. Outcomes measures included length of hospital stay, transfer to the intensive care unit, presence of infection, and incidence of death. A total of 752 patients were included. The nutrition risk was 29.3%, 37.1%, 33.6%, and 31.3% according to the NRS-2002, MUST, MST, and SNAQ, respectively. All screening tools showed satisfactory performance to identify patients at nutrition risk (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve between 0.765-0.808). Patients at nutrition risk showed higher risk of very long length of hospital stay as compared with those not at nutrition risk, independent of the tool applied (relative risk, 1.35-1.78). Increased risk of mortality (2.34 times) was detected by the MUST. The MUST, MST, and SNAQ share similar accuracy to the NRS-2002 in identifying risk of malnutrition, and all instruments were positively associated with very long hospital stay. In clinical practice, the 4 tools could be applied, and the choice for one of them should be made per the particularities of the service.

  18. Interdisciplinary approach for disaster risk reduction in Valtellina Valley, northern Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, Carolina; Blahut, Jan; Luna, Byron Quan; Poretti, Ilaria; Camera, Corrado; de Amicis, Mattia; Sterlacchini, Simone

    2010-05-01

    Inside the framework of the European research network Mountain Risks, an interdisciplinary research group has been working in the Consortium of Mountain Municipalities of Valtellina di Tirano (northern Italy). This area has been continuously affected by several mountain hazards such as landslides, debris flows and floods that directly affect the population, and in some cases caused several deaths and million euros of losses. An aim of the interdisciplinary work in this study area, is to integrate different scientific products of the research group, in the areas of risk assessment, management and governance, in order to generate, among others, risk reduction tools addressed to general public and stakeholders. Two types of phenomena have been particularly investigated: debris flows and floods. The scientific products range from modeling to mapping of hazard and risk, emergency planning based on real time decision support systems, surveying for the evaluation of risk perception and preparedness, among others. Outputs from medium scale hazard and risk modeling could be used for decision makers and spatial planners as well as civil protection authorities to have a general overview of the area and indentify hot spots for further detailed analysis. Subsequently, local scale analysis is necessary to define possible events and risk scenarios for emergency planning. As for the modeling of past events and new scenarios of debris flows, physical outputs were used as inputs into physical vulnerability assessment and quantitative risk analysis within dynamic runout models. On a pilot zone, the physical damage was quantified for each affected structure within the context of physical vulnerability and different empirical vulnerability curves were obtained. Prospective economic direct losses were estimated. For floods hazard assessment, different approaches and models are being tested, in order to produce flood maps for various return periods, and related to registered rainfalls

  19. Evaluating the risk-reduction benefits of wind energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brower, M.C.; Bell, K.; Spinney, P. [and others

    1997-05-01

    The question of uncertainty and risk in electric utility resource planning has received considerable attention in recent years. During the 1980s, many utilities suffered financial losses because of unexpectedly high plant construction costs and low growth in electricity demand. In addition, the introduction of competition to the electric industry is creating new risks for power companies. No longer will utilities be able to count on regulatory protections and a base of captive consumers to provide a stable market and adequate return on their investments. Alternative risk management strategies will have to be considered instead. One approach to managing risk is for a utility company to invest in diverse power sources such as wind power plants. Since wind plants consume no fuel, can be built in relatively small increments with short construction lead times, and generate no pollutants, it is often said that they offer significant protection from risks associated with conventional fossil-fuel power plants. So far there have been few efforts to quantify these benefits, however. The study compares the costs and risks of two competing resource options, a gas-fired combined cycle plant and a wind plant, both utility-owned, through decision analysis. The case study utility is Texas Utilities Electric, a very large investor-owned company serving an area with substantial, high-quality wind resources. The authors chose a specific moment in the future - the year 2003 - when the utility currently plans to build a large fossil-fueled power plant, and examined the implications for the utility`s expected revenues, costs, and profits if a wind plant were to be built instead.

  20. Biodiesel from Specified Risk Material Tallow: An Appraisal of TSE Risks and their Reduction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baribeau, A.; Bradley, R.; Brown, P.; Goodwin, J.; Kihm, U.; Lotero, E.; O' Connor, D.; Schuppers, M.; Taylor, D.

    2007-03-15

    potential to inactivate TSE infectivity, for example, exposure to strong acids or bases and, depending on the process, exposure to high temperature or purification by chromatography or precipitation. However, the two-phase aqueouslipidic nature of transesterification introduces an element of uncertainty about the effect of these procedures on infectivity. Biodiesel use. Combustion temperatures, even at millisecond exposures, might partially inactivate contaminated biodiesel. But experimental data have so far been limited to saline tissue suspensions of infected tissues and several minute exposure times in static rather than dynamic combustion processes. A substantial body of epidemiological and laboratory evidence indicates that TSE is not transmitted by aerosol inhalation. Overall conclusion. Biodiesel produced from animals infected with TSE poses a negligible risk to animal and public health. This conclusion extends even to the use of SRM as a source of tallow, based on experimental evidence showing that rendered tallow from infected animal tissues does not transmit disease to inoculated susceptible animals. Although infectivity reductions during biodiesel manufacturing steps should therefore be redundant, any such reduction would still be desirable as an added measure of safety. At present, the potential for infectivity reduction through biodiesel manufacturing and combustion can only be estimated from analogy to methods known to inactivate infectivity in saline suspensions of infected tissue. Studies of the actual biodiesel process, using experimentally contaminated input tallow, are recommended as the only means by which a scientifically-based conclusion can be made about the capacity of these processes to reduce or eliminate TSE infectivity.

  1. Biodiesel from Specified Risk Material Tallow: An Appraisal of TSE Risks and their Reduction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baribeau, A; Bradley, R; Brown, P; Goodwin, J; Kihm, U; Lotero, E; O' Connor, D; Schuppers, M; Taylor, D

    2007-03-15

    inactivate TSE infectivity, for example, exposure to strong acids or bases and, depending on the process, exposure to high temperature or purification by chromatography or precipitation. However, the two-phase aqueouslipidic nature of transesterification introduces an element of uncertainty about the effect of these procedures on infectivity. Biodiesel use. Combustion temperatures, even at millisecond exposures, might partially inactivate contaminated biodiesel. But experimental data have so far been limited to saline tissue suspensions of infected tissues and several minute exposure times in static rather than dynamic combustion processes. A substantial body of epidemiological and laboratory evidence indicates that TSE is not transmitted by aerosol inhalation. Overall conclusion. Biodiesel produced from animals infected with TSE poses a negligible risk to animal and public health. This conclusion extends even to the use of SRM as a source of tallow, based on experimental evidence showing that rendered tallow from infected animal tissues does not transmit disease to inoculated susceptible animals. Although infectivity reductions during biodiesel manufacturing steps should therefore be redundant, any such reduction would still be desirable as an added measure of safety. At present, the potential for infectivity reduction through biodiesel manufacturing and combustion can only be estimated from analogy to methods known to inactivate infectivity in saline suspensions of infected tissue. Studies of the actual biodiesel process, using experimentally contaminated input tallow, are recommended as the only means by which a scientifically-based conclusion can be made about the capacity of these processes to reduce or eliminate TSE infectivity.

  2. A Successful ED Fall Risk Program Using the KINDER 1 Fall RiskAssessment Tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Townsend, Ann B; Valle-Ortiz, Marisol; Sansweet, Tracy

    2016-11-01

    Emergency nurses did not perform falls risk assessments routinely on our ED patients; the instrument used was aimed at inpatients. We identified a need to revise fall assessment practices specific to our emergency department. The purpose of the performance improvement project was to reduce ED falls and evaluate the use of an ED-specific fall risk tool, the KINDER 1 Fall Risk Assessment. The plan was to establish fall risk assessment practices at point of ED entry and to decrease total falls. We retrospectively reviewed ED fall data for each quarter of 2013, which included risk assessments scores, the total number of falls, and the circumstances of each fall. Using Kotter's framework to guide a successful change process, we implemented the KINDER 1 to assess fall risk. During the first 4 weeks of the project, 937 patients (27%) were identified as high risk for falls using the KINDER 1. During the subsequent 3 quarters, the total number of falls decreased; reported falls without injuries dropped from 0.21 to 0.07 per 1000 patients, and falls with injuries were reduced from 0.21 to 0.0 per 1000 patients. The results of this project represented a valuable step toward achieving our goal to keep ED patients safe from injuries as a result of falls. The findings add to the body of nursing knowledge on the application of clinical-based performance improvement projects to improve patient outcomes and to provide data on the use of the KINDER 1 tool, which has not been extensively tested. Copyright © 2016 Emergency Nurses Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. On-ground casualty risk reduction by structural design for demise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lemmens, Stijn; Funke, Quirin; Krag, Holger

    2015-06-01

    In recent years, awareness concerning the on-ground risk posed by un-controlled re-entering space systems has increased. On average over the past decade, an object with mass above 800 kg re-enters every week from which only a few, e.g. ESA's GOCE in 2013 and NASA's UARS in 2011, appeared prominent in international media. Space agencies and nations have discussed requirements to limit the on-ground risk for future missions. To meet the requirements, the amount of debris falling back on Earth has to be limited in number, mass and size. Design for demise (D4D) refers to all measures taken in the design of a space object to increase the potential for demise of the object and its components during re-entry. SCARAB (Spacecraft Atmospheric Re-entry and Break-Up) is ESA's high-fidelity tool which analyses the thermal and structural effects of atmospheric re-entry on spacecraft with a finite-element approach. For this study, a model of a representative satellite is developed in SCARAB to serve as test-bed for D4D analyses on a structural level. The model is used as starting point for different D4D approaches based on increasing the exposure of the satellite components to the aero-thermal environment, as a way to speed up the demise. Statistical bootstrapping is applied to the resulting on-ground fragment lists in order to compare the different re-entry scenarios and to determine the uncertainties of the results. Moreover, the bootstrap results can be used to analyse the casualty risk estimator from a theoretical point of view. The risk reductions for the analysed D4D techniques are presented with respect to the reference scenario for the modelled representative satellite.

  4. Ecohydrology of agroecosystems: probabilistic description of yield reduction risk under limited water availability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vico, Giulia; Porporato, Amilcare

    2013-04-01

    Supplemental irrigation represents one of the main strategies to mitigate the effects of climate variability and stabilize yields. Irrigated agriculture currently provides 40% of food production and its relevance is expected to further increase in the near future, in face of the projected alterations of rainfall patterns and increase in food, fiber, and biofuel demand. Because of the significant investments and water requirements involved in irrigation, strategic choices are needed to preserve productivity and profitability, while maintaining a sustainable water management - a nontrivial task given the unpredictability of the rainfall forcing. To facilitate decision making under uncertainty, a widely applicable probabilistic framework is proposed. The occurrence of rainfall events and irrigation applications are linked probabilistically to crop development during the growing season and yields at harvest. Based on these linkages, the probability density function of yields and corresponding probability density function of required irrigation volumes, as well as the probability density function of yields under the most common case of limited water availability are obtained analytically, as a function of irrigation strategy, climate, soil and crop parameters. The full probabilistic description of the frequency of occurrence of yields and water requirements is a crucial tool for decision making under uncertainty, e.g., via expected utility analysis. Furthermore, the knowledge of the probability density function of yield allows us to quantify the yield reduction hydrologic risk. Two risk indices are defined and quantified: the long-term risk index, suitable for long-term irrigation strategy assessment and investment planning, and the real-time risk index, providing a rigorous probabilistic quantification of the emergence of drought conditions during a single growing season in an agricultural setting. Our approach employs relatively few parameters and is thus easily and

  5. Osteoporosis: Implications for Risk Reduction in the College Setting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leslie, Maryann; St. Pierre, Richard W.

    1999-01-01

    Examines risk factors for osteoporosis that are especially relevant to the college health setting, focusing on bone development, inadequate calcium and vitamin D intake, cigarette smoking and alcohol use, steroid use and high protein diets, and physical inactivity and excessive exercise. Also presents intervention strategies for college health…

  6. 76 FR 41278 - Cargo Security Risk Reduction; Public Listening Sessions

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-07-13

    ....mil/hq/cg5/cg544/cdc.asp or the Federal Docket Management System at http://www.Regulations.gov . For... important for the Coast Guard, in concert with stakeholders, to implement a holistic strategy to mitigate... risk management and shared responsibility between public and private sector stakeholders, across the...

  7. Beliefs and Behaviors about Breast Cancer Recurrence Risk Reduction among African American Breast Cancer Survivors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamin Ansa

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available A growing body of evidence suggests that breast cancer recurrence risk is linked to lifestyle behaviors. This study examined correlations between breast cancer recurrence, risk reduction beliefs, and related behaviors among African American breast cancer survivors (AA BCSs. Study participants included 191 AA BCSs, mean age = 56.3 years, who completed a lifestyle assessment tool. Most respondents believed that being overweight (52.7%, lack of physical activity (48.7%, and a high fat diet (63.2% are associated with breast cancer recurrence. Over 65% considered themselves overweight; one third (33.5% agreed that losing weight could prevent recurrence, 33.0% disagreed, while the remaining 33.5% did not know; and nearly half (47.9% believed that recurrence could be prevented by increasing physical activity. Almost 90% survivors with BMI < 25 Kg/M2 reported no recurrence compared to 75.7% with BMI ≥ 25 Kg/M2 (p = 0.06; nearly all of the women (99.2% answered “yes” to seeking professional help to lose weight, 79.7% of which were recurrence-free (p = 0.05. These results provide information about AA BCSs’ beliefs and behaviors protective against breast cancer recurrence. Additional research is warranted to determine the effectiveness of educational interventions for AA BCSs that promote consumption of a healthy diet and engaging in regular physical activity.

  8. An obesity/cardiometabolic risk reduction disease management program: a population-based approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villagra, Victor G

    2009-04-01

    Obesity is a critical health concern that has captured the attention of public and private healthcare payers who are interested in controlling costs and mitigating the long-term economic consequences of the obesity epidemic. Population-based approaches to obesity management have been proposed that take advantage of a chronic care model (CCM), including patient self-care, the use of community-based resources, and the realization of care continuity through ongoing communications with patients, information technology, and public policy changes. Payer-sponsored disease management programs represent an important conduit to delivering population-based care founded on similar CCM concepts. Disease management is founded on population-based disease identification, evidence-based care protocols, and collaborative practices between clinicians. While substantial clinician training, technology infrastructure commitments, and financial support at the payer level will be needed for the success of disease management programs in obesity and cardiometabolic risk reduction, these barriers can be overcome with the proper commitment. Disease management programs represent an important tool to combat the growing societal risks of overweight and obesity.

  9. [Smoking fewer cigarettes per day may determine a significant risk reduction in developing smoking attributable diseases? Is there a risk reduction for e-cigarette users?].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pieri, Luca; Chellini, Elisabetta; Gorini, Giuseppe

    2014-01-01

    Among Italian smokers--about 10 millions in 2013--about 600,000 began using electronic cigarettes (e-cigs) in last years. About 10% of e-cig users quitted smoking tobacco, whereas the 90% was dual users. Among them, about three out of four decreased the number of cigarettes smoked per day (cig/day), but did not quit. How many fewer cigarettes a smoker has to smoke to obtain significant health benefits? Is there a threshold? In order to observe a significant 27% reduction in the risk of developing lung cancer, a smoker must reduce the number of cig/day by at least 50%, while for the other smoking-related diseases (acute myocardial infarction - AMI, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases), halving the number of cig/day did not drive to a significant risk reduction. Even smoking 5 cig/day increases the risk of AMI, whereas it significantly lowers the risk of lung cancer. Obviously, quitting smoking is the best choice to highly reduce risks for all smoking-related diseases. Therefore, in order to achieve significant risk reductions, e-cig users should quit smoking as first choice, or, if they feel it is impossible to them, reduce the consumption of traditional cigarettes to less than 5 cig/day.

  10. Coordination of International Risk-Reduction Investigations by the Multilateral Human Research Panel for Exploration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charles, John B.; Bogomolov, Valery V.

    2015-01-01

    Effective use of the unique capabilities of the International Space Station (ISS) for risk reduction on future deep space missions involves preliminary work in analog environments to identify and evaluate the most promising techniques, interventions and treatments. This entails a consolidated multinational approach to biomedical research both on ISS and in ground analogs. The Multilateral Human Research Panel for Exploration (MHRPE) was chartered by the five ISS partners to recommend the best combination of partner investigations on ISS for risk reduction in the relatively short time available for ISS utilization. MHRPE will also make recommendations to funding agencies for appropriate preparatory analog work. In 2011, NASA's Human Research Program (HRP) and the Institute of Biomedical Problems (IBMP) of the Russian Academy of Science, acting for MHRPE, developed a joint US-Russian biomedical program for the 2015 one-year ISS mission (1YM) of American and Russian crewmembers. This was to evaluate the possibilities for multilateral research on ISS. An overlapping list of 16 HRP, 9 IBMP, 3 Japanese, 3 European and 1 Canadian investigations were selected to address risk-reduction goals in 7 categories: Functional Performance, Behavioral Health, Visual Impairment, Metabolism, Physical Capacity, Microbial and Human Factors. MHRPE intends to build on this bilateral foundation to recommend more fully-integrated multilateral investigations on future ISS missions commencing after the 1YM. MHRPE has also endorsed an on-going program of coordinated research on 6-month, one-year and 6-week missions ISS expeditions that is now under consideration by ISS managers. Preparatory work for these missions will require coordinated and collaborative campaigns especially in the psychological and psychosocial areas using analog isolation facilities in Houston, Köln and Moscow, and possibly elsewhere. The multilateral Human Analogs research working group (HANA) is the focal point of those

  11. Comparison of cost effectiveness of risk reduction among different energy systems: French case studies. Final report of the co-ordinated research programme

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lochard, Jacques [ed.

    1989-08-01

    This report presents the three French case studies performed in the framework of the coordinated research program on 'Comparison of Cost-effectiveness of Risk Reduction among different Energy Systems': Cost effectiveness of robotics and remote tooling for occupational risk reduction at a nuclear fuel fabrication facility; Cost-effectiveness of protection actions to reduce occupational exposures in underground uranium mines; Cost-effectiveness of safety measures to reduce public risk associated with the transportation of UF{sub 6} by truck and trains.

  12. Comparison of cost effectiveness of risk reduction among different energy systems: French case studies. Final report for the period 1 May 1982 - 20 February 1988

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lochard, J [CEPN Centre d` Etude sur l` Evaluation de la Protection dans le Domaine Nucleaire, Fontenay-Aux-Roses (France)

    1989-08-01

    The report presents the three French case studies performed in the framework of the co-ordinated research programme on ``Comparison of Cost-Effectiveness of Risk Reduction Among Different Energy Systems``: cost-effectiveness of robotics and remote tooling for occupational risk reduction at a nuclear fuel fabrication facility; cost-effectiveness of protection actions to reduce occupational exposure in underground uranium mines; cost effectiveness of safety measures to reduce public risk associated with the transportation of UF{sub 6} by truck and trains. Figs and tabs.

  13. Comparison of cost effectiveness of risk reduction among different energy systems: French case studies. Final report for the period 1 May 1982 - 20 February 1988

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lochard, J.

    1989-08-01

    The report presents the three French case studies performed in the framework of the co-ordinated research programme on ''Comparison of Cost-Effectiveness of Risk Reduction Among Different Energy Systems'': cost-effectiveness of robotics and remote tooling for occupational risk reduction at a nuclear fuel fabrication facility; cost-effectiveness of protection actions to reduce occupational exposure in underground uranium mines; cost effectiveness of safety measures to reduce public risk associated with the transportation of UF 6 by truck and trains. Figs and tabs

  14. The social value of mortality risk reduction: VSL versus the social welfare function approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adler, Matthew D; Hammitt, James K; Treich, Nicolas

    2014-05-01

    We examine how different welfarist frameworks evaluate the social value of mortality risk reduction. These frameworks include classical, distributively unweighted cost-benefit analysis--i.e., the "value per statistical life" (VSL) approach-and various social welfare functions (SWFs). The SWFs are either utilitarian or prioritarian, applied to policy choice under risk in either an "ex post" or "ex ante" manner. We examine the conditions on individual utility and on the SWF under which these frameworks display sensitivity to wealth and to baseline risk. Moreover, we discuss whether these frameworks satisfy related properties that have received some attention in the literature, namely equal value of risk reduction, preference for risk equity, and catastrophe aversion. We show that the particular manner in which VSL ranks risk-reduction measures is not necessarily shared by other welfarist frameworks. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Evolution of surgical techniques for a progressive risk reduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amato, Bruno; Santoro, Mario; Izzo, Raffaele; Servillo, Giuseppe; Compagna, Rita; Di Domenico, Lorenza; Di Nardo, Veronica; Giugliano, Giuseppe

    2017-07-18

    Advanced age is a strong predictor of high perioperative mortality in surgical patients and patients aged 75 years and older have an elevated surgical risk, much higher than that of younger patients. Progressive advances in surgical techniques now make it possible to treat high-risk surgical patients with minimally invasive procedures. Endovascular techniques have revolutionized the treatment of several vascular diseases, in particular carotid stenosis, aortic pathologies, and severely incapacitating intermittent claudication or critical limb ischemia. The main advantages of the endovascular approach are the low complication rate, high rate of technical success and a good clinical outcome. Biliary stenting has improved the clinical status of severely ill patients with bile duct stricture before major surgery, and represents a good palliative therapy in the case of malignant biliary obstruction.

  16. POETICS OF TRANSCENDENCE: STYLISTIC REDUCTION AS A TOOL FOR REPRESENTATION OF SACRED MEANINGS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena Brazgovskaya

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The main direction of the work is connected to the representation of abstract (transcendent objects in music and literature. The article analyses "Cantus in Memoriam Benjamin Britten" by Arvo Pärt and some poems of Czesław Miłosz. The metaphysical dimension of reality involves forms and things, existing beyond the boundaries of empirical perception and, at first sight, beyond the descriptive practices. Abstract objects are available in intellectual experience, but culture must transform them into a symbolic form. As a rule, it is connected to the practice of art minimalism. The essence of minimalism is the reduction of number of stylistic tools and “purification” the perception from the visual / auditory images (not a mimetic use of language. For the representation of the sacred Pärt uses only mensural canon form, scale and chord. These “characters” are deprived of descriptive function, but have symbolic potential (canon as a sign of stopped time, the eternal return. The distinctive feature of the Miłoszʼs style is the pursuit to “clean” the signs (indexical and symbolic. There is the reverse side of language distillation: the rejection of the subjective position, emotional experience, the distance between the person and the object of representation.

  17. Impact of the Prevention Plan on Employee Health Risk Reduction

    OpenAIRE

    Loeppke, Ronald; Edington, Dee W.; Bég, Sami

    2010-01-01

    This study evaluated the impact of The Prevention Plan™ on employee health risks after 1 year of integrated primary prevention (wellness and health promotion) and secondary prevention (biometric and lab screening as well as early detection) interventions. The Prevention Plan is an innovative prevention benefit that provides members with the high-tech/high-touch support and encouragement they need to adopt healthy behaviors. Support services include 24/7 nurse hotlines, one-on-one health coach...

  18. REDUCTION OF THE RISK IN PUBLIC PROCUREMENT BY USING DESIGN-BUILD AS A MEANS FOR SUITABLE CONSTRUCTING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jakub Blaťák

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Suitable and sustainable buildings have increased demands for design and for the transfer of design requirements to realization. That causes an increase of risk connected with the differences between planned and real parameters of the buildings. This article will outline the main theme comparison between DBB and DB projects concerning contractor’s risk management level. This comparative analysis explains, using the RIPRAN method, the hidden risks in each type of delivery method. The comparison identifies numerous contractual topics and risks included in both and gives deeper insight into risk management, both for the contracting party and also for public procurement. Applying risk analysis strategies and tools to the process will help decision-makers evaluate and select the suitable delivery method consistently and defensibly. This paper gives generic risk factors related to both project types. The results indicate risk factors with influence on the price, probability of occurrence and unfavourable impact on the project and help allocate risk level more properly in accordance with its high, middle or low probable impact. Public investment is a significant part of the public budget, the application of design-build can help with the reduction of corruption, and the public sector can benefit from the usage of DB projects to help eliminate the mistakes made by contracting authorities.

  19. A Dutch Perspective on Coastal Louisiana Flood Risk Reduction and Landscape Stabilization

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Dijkman, Jos

    2007-01-01

    .... The project was aimed at identifying options for the long-term reduction of flood risks and landscape stabilization in Planning Areas I and 2 in Louisiana, in the framework of the Louisiana Coastal...

  20. The Effect of Risk Reduction Intervention on Earthquake Disaster Preparedness of the Elderly People

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kian Nourozi

    2016-01-01

    Conclusion: Preparedness programs for disaster risk reduction has a positive effect on the elders’ preparedness. Thus, similar multimodal preparedness programs should be used more frequently for this vulnerable community citizens.

  1. Case Study of Cardiovascular Risk Reduction in the Northwest Region and TRICARE Region 11

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Murphy, Rosemary

    2003-01-01

    ... and TRICARE Lead Agent Region 11. The outcomes management team developed a cardiovascular risk reduction scorecard and metrics in which to evaluate the care being given to the TRICARE prime enrollees with a cardiovascular disease diagnosis...

  2. Farmers prone to drought risk : why some farmers undertake farm-level risk-reduction measures while others not?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gidey, T.G.; van der Veen, A.

    2015-01-01

    This research investigates farmers’ cognitive perceptions of risk and the behavioral intentions to undertake farm-level risk-reduction measures. It has been observed that people who are susceptible to natural hazards often fail to act, or do very little, to protect their assets or lives. To answer

  3. Public participatory GIS in community-based disaster risk reduction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Randall B. Kemp

    2008-12-01

    Introducing PPGIS tools into community-based DRR is not a neutral effort. The information and communication technologies (ICT embedded in GIS can both aid the DRR efforts as well as impact the community in unintended ways. ICTs may be common in communities engaged in DRR efforts so the introduction of PPGIS may have minimal impact. What are the societal ramifications, however, of PPGIS methods in DRR efforts when ICTs are a relatively new aspect of a given community?  What are the communication methods pertinent to PPGIS in the DRR context?  How does the ICT literature address PPGIS methods?  The paper addresses these and other influences of ICT on societies prone to natural hazards.

  4. If We Build It, Will They Come? A Qualitative Study of Key Stakeholder Opinions on the Implementation of a Videogame Intervention for Risk Reduction in Adolescents

    OpenAIRE

    Pendergrass, Tyra M.; Hieftje, Kimberly; Crusto, Cindy A.; Montanaro, Erika; Fiellin, Lynn E.

    2016-01-01

    Objective: Serious games are emerging as important tools that offer an innovative approach to teach adolescents behavioral skills to avoid risky situations. PlayForward: Elm City Stories, an interactive videogame targeting risk reduction, is currently undergoing evaluation. Collecting stakeholder data on its acceptability and real-life implementation strategies is critical for successful dissemination.

  5. Bayesian network as a modelling tool for risk management in agriculture

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Svend; Madsen, Anders Læsø; Lund, Mogens

    The importance of risk management increases as farmers become more exposed to risk. But risk management is a difficult topic because income risk is the result of the complex interaction of multiple risk factors combined with the effect of an increasing array of possible risk management tools. In ......, and that it has the ability to link uncertainty from different external sources to budget figures and to quantify risk at the farm level....

  6. A European Commission software tool for radon risk calculation and evaluation of countermeasures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Degrange, J.P.; Levy, F.P.; Birchall, A.; Haylock, R.; Marsh, J.; Muirhead, C.; Janssens, A.

    2000-01-01

    through the successive use of a dosimetric model (NRPB, 1998) and a somatic effects model (BEIR V, 1990) based on the follow-up of lung cancers in Hiroshima and Nagasaki population. In both cases, the modifying effect of tobacco consumption on the risk is adjusted for. The principal risk indicators calculated by the software are the whole life mortality risk and loss of life expectancy. Additionally, all the intermediate results are available. A system of monetary value of human life allows also to identify the most cost-effective countermeasure. This software could play a role in general training, the provision of information to the public and in investigating the effect on risk of different dose reduction strategies. Finally, its sensitivity analysis capabilities and its database system together with its user friendly configuration capabilities should make it an easy to use tool for the risk evaluation experts of various countries to perform useful calculations, appropriate to their situations with regard to local radon and smoking patterns. (author)

  7. A European Commission software tool for radon risk calculation and evaluation of countermeasures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Degrange, J.P.; Levy, F.P. [CEPN, Fontenay-aux-Roses Cedex (France); Birchall, A.; Haylock, R.; Marsh, J.; Muirhead, C. [National Radiological Protection Board, Chilton (United Kingdom); Janssens, A. [European Commission, DG XI (Luxembourg)

    2000-05-01

    through the successive use of a dosimetric model (NRPB, 1998) and a somatic effects model (BEIR V, 1990) based on the follow-up of lung cancers in Hiroshima and Nagasaki population. In both cases, the modifying effect of tobacco consumption on the risk is adjusted for. The principal risk indicators calculated by the software are the whole life mortality risk and loss of life expectancy. Additionally, all the intermediate results are available. A system of monetary value of human life allows also to identify the most cost-effective countermeasure. This software could play a role in general training, the provision of information to the public and in investigating the effect on risk of different dose reduction strategies. Finally, its sensitivity analysis capabilities and its database system together with its user friendly configuration capabilities should make it an easy to use tool for the risk evaluation experts of various countries to perform useful calculations, appropriate to their situations with regard to local radon and smoking patterns. (author)

  8. Risk reduction strategies in laparoscopic donor nephrectomy: A comparative study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T Manohar

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: As the advancements, modifications and standardization of laparoscopy are taking place, there is a need for the reduction in morbidity associated with laparoscopic live donor nephrectomy. This study was performed to determine and reconfirm the advantages of laparoscopic donor nephrectomy over its open counterpart. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Two hundred open live donor nephrectomy (ODN cases were compared to 264 cases of laparoscopic live donor nephrectomy (LDN. Pretransplant functional and radiological evaluation was done routinely by excretory urogram and renal arteriography. In case of vascular variations, CT angiography was preferred. Open cases were done by conventional method and laparoscopic group underwent certain technical and surgical modifications, including meticulous planning for the port placement. Operative time, analgesia requirement, start of the orals, hospital stay, blood loss, late allograft function, incidence of rejection, complications and technical problems were analyzed. RESULTS: Operative time was 135.8 ± 43 and 165 ± 44.4 min ( P < 0.0001, requirement of analgesia was 60.5 ± 40 and 320 ± 120 mg ( P < 0.0001, hospital stay was 4 ± 0.04 and 5.7 ± 2.03 days ( P < 0.0001, warm ischemia time was 6.1 ± 2.0 and 4.1 ± 0.80 min ( P < 0.0001 and time taken for the serum creatinine to stabilize in the recipient was 4.1 ± 1.6 and 4.32 ± 1.40 days ( P =0.06 for LDN and ODN groups respectively. There was a significant reduction in the blood loss in LDN group ( P =0.0005. Overall complications were 6.81 and 14.5% and ureteric injury was seen in 0.37 and 1% in LDN and ODN respectively. CONCLUSION: Laparoscopic live donor nephrectomy can now be performed with low morbidity and mortality to both donors and recipients and is proving to be the preferred operation to open donor nephrectomy. Our continued innovations in technical modifications have made this novel operation successful.

  9. Selection of risk reduction portfolios under interval-valued probabilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Toppila, Antti; Salo, Ahti

    2017-01-01

    A central problem in risk management is that of identifying the optimal combination (or portfolio) of improvements that enhance the reliability of the system most through reducing failure event probabilities, subject to the availability of resources. This optimal portfolio can be sensitive with regard to epistemic uncertainties about the failure events' probabilities. In this paper, we develop an optimization model to support the allocation of resources to improvements that mitigate risks in coherent systems in which interval-valued probabilities defined by lower and upper bounds are employed to capture epistemic uncertainties. Decision recommendations are based on portfolio dominance: a resource allocation portfolio is dominated if there exists another portfolio that improves system reliability (i) at least as much for all feasible failure probabilities and (ii) strictly more for some feasible probabilities. Based on non-dominated portfolios, recommendations about improvements to implement are derived by inspecting in how many non-dominated portfolios a given improvement is contained. We present an exact method for computing the non-dominated portfolios. We also present an approximate method that simplifies the reliability function using total order interactions so that larger problem instances can be solved with reasonable computational effort. - Highlights: • Reliability allocation under epistemic uncertainty about probabilities. • Comparison of alternatives using dominance. • Computational methods for generating the non-dominated alternatives. • Deriving decision recommendations that are robust with respect to epistemic uncertainty.

  10. Risk reduction by filtered venting in PWR large dry-containments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gazzillo, F.; Kastenberg, W.E.

    1984-01-01

    The potential risk reduction associated with a Filtered-Vented Containment System is evaluated. A low-volume venting strategy has been considered and data referring to the Zion power plant, along with the results of the Zion Probabilistic Safety Study, have been used. An estimate of the reduction factor is first made for a single core melt accident sequence whose containment failure mode is late overpressure. The result, interpreted as a reduction factor applicable to the release category associated with containment late overpressure is then used for the estimation of the overall risk reduction factor. In particular, the case of internal and external risk for the Zion power plant are considered. Because the contribution from seismic events dominates the overall risk, the importance of different assumptions for seismic fragility is also assessed. Finally an uncertainty analysis of the risk reduction factor for a single accident sequence is performed. An estimate is also obtained on the level of confidence with which certain required values of risk reduction can be achieved. (orig.)

  11. Increased fracture risk assessed by fracture risk assessment tool in Greek patients with Crohn's disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terzoudis, Sotirios; Zavos, Christos; Damilakis, John; Neratzoulakis, John; Dimitriadi, Daphne Anna; Roussomoustakaki, Maria; Kouroumalis, Elias A; Koutroubakis, Ioannis E

    2013-01-01

    The World Health Organization has recently developed the fracture risk assessment tool (FRAX) based on clinical risk factors and bone mineral density (BMD) for evaluation of the 10-year probability of a hip or a major osteoporotic fracture. The aim of this study was to evaluate the use of the FRAX tool in Greek patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). FRAX scores were applied to 134 IBD patients [68 Crohn's disease (CD); 66 ulcerative colitis (UC)] who underwent dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry scans at the femoral neck and lumbar spine during the period 2007-2012. Calculation of the FRAX scores, with or without BMD, was made through a web-based probability model used to compute individual fracture probabilities according to specific clinical risk factors. The median 10-year probability of a major osteoporotic fracture for IBD patients based on clinical data was 7.1%, and including the BMD was 6.2%. A significant overestimation with the first method was found (P = 0.01). Both scores with and without BMD were significantly higher in CD patients compared with UC patients (P = 0.02 and P = 0.005, respectively). The median 10-year probability of hip fracture based on clinical data was 0.8%, and including the BMD was 0.9%. The score with use of BMD was significantly higher in CD compared with UC patients (P = 0.04). CD patients have significantly higher FRAX scores and possibly fracture risk compared with UC patients. The clinical FRAX score alone seems to overestimate the risk of osteoporotic fracture in Greek IBD patients.

  12. DEBRISK, a Tool for Re-Entry Risk Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Omaly, P.; Spel, M.

    2012-01-01

    An act of French parliament, adopted in 2008, imposes satellite constructors to evaluate the end-of-life operations in order to assure the risk mitigation of their satellites. One important element in this evaluation is the estimation of the mass and impact energy of the satellite debris after atmospheric re-entry. For this purpose, CNES has developed the tool DEBRISK which allows the operator to simulate the re-entry phase and to study the demise altitudes or impact energy of the individual fragments of the original satellite. DEBRISK is based on the so called object based approach. Using this approach, a breakup altitude is assumed where the satellite disintegrates due to the pressure loads. This altitude is typically around 78 km. After breakup, the satellite structure is modelled by a parent-child approach, where each child has its birth criterion. In the simplest approach the child is born after demise of the parent object. This could be the case of an object A containing an object B which is in the interior of object A and thus not exposed to the atmosphere. Each object is defined by: - its shape, attitude and dimensions, - the material along with their physical properties - the state and velocity vectors. The shape, attitude and dimensions define the aerodynamic drag of the object which is input to the 3DOF trajectory modelling. The aerodynamic mass used in the equation of motion is defined as the sum of the object's own mass and the mass of the object's offspring. A new born object inherits the state vector of the parent object. The shape, attitude and dimensions also define the heating rates experienced by the object. The heating rate is integrated in time up to the point where the melting temperature is reached. The mass of melted material is computed from the excess heat and the material properties. After each step the amount of ablated material is determined using the lumped mass approach and is peeled off from the object, updating mass and shape of the

  13. ePORT, NASA's Computer Database Program for System Safety Risk Management Oversight (Electronic Project Online Risk Tool)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Paul W.

    2008-01-01

    ePORT (electronic Project Online Risk Tool) provides a systematic approach to using an electronic database program to manage a program/project risk management processes. This presentation will briefly cover the standard risk management procedures, then thoroughly cover NASA's Risk Management tool called ePORT. This electronic Project Online Risk Tool (ePORT) is a web-based risk management program that provides a common framework to capture and manage risks, independent of a programs/projects size and budget. It is used to thoroughly cover the risk management paradigm providing standardized evaluation criterion for common management reporting, ePORT improves Product Line, Center and Corporate Management insight, simplifies program/project manager reporting, and maintains an archive of data for historical reference.

  14. Consideration on risk reduction of future breeder reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vossebrecker, H.

    1990-09-01

    An overall concept of risk minimization of future sodium-cooled fast breeder reactors is presented in this report. Since shutdown reliability is of vital importance for the breeder safety, a so-called third shutdown level is proposed in addition to the two independent fast shutdown systems. It is basically a group of passive and active measures, which are capable to bring the reactor to safe conditions in all conceivable accident-initiating events and in case of total failure of the two actual shutdown systems. Core disruptions as a result of shutdown failure are therefore beyond the scope of technical imagination. Measures are also foreseen to combat other conceivable causes of core disruption, in particular to achieve residual heat removal with essentially passive systems by making use of the good natural circulation capacity of sodium. On top of that, since absolute safety can never be claimed, damage-limiting containment measures are discussed

  15. A business perspective on environmental risk and cost reduction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roper, U.V.

    1998-01-01

    The ways in which the petrochemical industry can enjoy successful business partnerships with environmental service companies was discussed. The petrochemical industry has traditionally viewed environmental service companies as an inherent cost in the context of risk management, and not in the context of business opportunity. Today, as environmental issues are integrated into business operations, there is a new potential for creating business opportunities in a number of operational areas, among them : (1) energy efficiency, (2) process efficiency, (3) waste minimization, (4) waste recycling, and (5) operational pooling. As environmental service companies became more competitive, they have become more attractive business partners. They are providing more diversified services and are better aligned with core competencies required to exploit business opportunities that are too small for major players in the oil,natural gas and petro-chemical industry. They also offer public recognition and financial upside for industry. Some examples of successful business partnerships along these lines are briefly described

  16. Ethical questions in landslide management and risk reduction in Norway

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taurisano, A.; Lyche, E.; Thakur, V.; Wiig, T.; Øvrelid, K.; Devoli, G.

    2012-04-01

    The loss of lives caused by landslides in Norway is smaller than in other countries due to the low population density in exposed areas. However, annual economic losses from damage to properties and infrastructures are vast. Yet nationally coordinated efforts to manage and reduce landslide and snow avalanche risk are a recent challenge, having started only in the last decade. Since 2009, this has been a task of the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE) under the Ministry of Petroleum and Energy. Ongoing work includes collection of landslide data, production of susceptibility and hazard maps, planning of mitigation measures along with monitoring and early warning systems, assistance to areal planning, providing expertise in emergencies and disseminating information to the public. These activities are realized in collaboration with the Norwegian Geological Survey (NGU), the Meteorological Institute, the Road and Railway authorities, universities and private consultant companies. As the total need for risk mitigating initiatives is by far larger than the annual budget, priority assessment is crucial. This brings about a number of ethical questions. 1. Susceptibility maps have been produced for the whole country and provide a first indication of areas with potential landslide or snow avalanche hazard, i.e. areas where special attention and expert assessments are needed before development. Areas where no potential hazard is shown can in practice be developed without further studies, which call for relatively conservative susceptibility maps. However, conservative maps are problematic as they too often increase both cost and duration of building projects beyond the reasonable. 2. Areas where hazard maps or risk mitigation initiatives will be funded are chosen by means of cost-benefits analyses which are often uncertain. How to estimate the benefits if the real probability for damage can only be judged on a very subjective level but not really calculated

  17. Integrated risk reduction framework to improve railway hazardous materials transportation safety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xiang; Saat, M Rapik; Barkan, Christopher P L

    2013-09-15

    Rail transportation plays a critical role to safely and efficiently transport hazardous materials. A number of strategies have been implemented or are being developed to reduce the risk of hazardous materials release from train accidents. Each of these risk reduction strategies has its safety benefit and corresponding implementation cost. However, the cost effectiveness of the integration of different risk reduction strategies is not well understood. Meanwhile, there has been growing interest in the U.S. rail industry and government to best allocate resources for improving hazardous materials transportation safety. This paper presents an optimization model that considers the combination of two types of risk reduction strategies, broken rail prevention and tank car safety design enhancement. A Pareto-optimality technique is used to maximize risk reduction at a given level of investment. The framework presented in this paper can be adapted to address a broader set of risk reduction strategies and is intended to assist decision makers for local, regional and system-wide risk management of rail hazardous materials transportation. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Responding to Sea Level Rise: Does Short-Term Risk Reduction Inhibit Successful Long-Term Adaptation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keeler, A. G.; McNamara, D. E.; Irish, J. L.

    2018-04-01

    Most existing coastal climate-adaptation planning processes, and the research supporting them, tightly focus on how to use land use planning, policy tools, and infrastructure spending to reduce risks from rising seas and changing storm conditions. While central to community response to sea level rise, we argue that the exclusive nature of this focus biases against and delays decisions to take more discontinuous, yet proactive, actions to adapt—for example, relocation and aggressive individual protection investments. Public policies should anticipate real estate market responses to risk reduction to avoid large costs—social and financial—when and if sea level rise and other climate-related factors elevate the risks to such high levels that discontinuous responses become the least bad alternative.

  19. Development of an Automated Security Risk Assessment Methodology Tool for Critical Infrastructures.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jaeger, Calvin Dell; Roehrig, Nathaniel S.; Torres, Teresa M.

    2008-12-01

    This document presents the security automated Risk Assessment Methodology (RAM) prototype tool developed by Sandia National Laboratories (SNL). This work leverages SNL's capabilities and skills in security risk analysis and the development of vulnerability assessment/risk assessment methodologies to develop an automated prototype security RAM tool for critical infrastructures (RAM-CITM). The prototype automated RAM tool provides a user-friendly, systematic, and comprehensive risk-based tool to assist CI sector and security professionals in assessing and managing security risk from malevolent threats. The current tool is structured on the basic RAM framework developed by SNL. It is envisioned that this prototype tool will be adapted to meet the requirements of different CI sectors and thereby provide additional capabilities.

  20. Development and application of a decision support tool for reduction of product losses in the food-processing industry

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Akkerman, Renzo; van Donk, Dirk Pieter

    2008-01-01

    In food-processing industries, reduction of product losses is important for improving profitability and sustainability. This paper presents a decision support tool for analyzing the effects of planning decisions on the amount of product losses in the food-processing industry. We created a research

  1. Statistical tools applied for the reduction of the defect rate of coffee degassing valves

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giorgio Olmi

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Coffee is a very common beverage exported all over the world: just after roasting, coffee beans are packed in plastic or paper bags, which then experience long transfers with long storage times. Fresh roasted coffee emits large amounts of CO2 for several weeks. This gas must be gradually released, to prevent package over-inflation and to preserve aroma, moreover beans must be protected from oxygen coming from outside. Therefore, one-way degassing valves are applied to each package: their correct functionality is strictly related to the interference coupling between their bodies and covers and to the correct assembly of the other involved parts. This work takes inspiration from an industrial problem: a company that assembles valve components, supplied by different manufacturers, observed a high level of defect rate, affecting its valve production. An integrated approach, consisting in the adoption of quality charts, in an experimental campaign for the dimensional analysis of the mating parts and in the statistical processing of the data, was necessary to tackle the question. In particular, a simple statistical tool was made available to predict the defect rate and to individuate the best strategy for its reduction. The outcome was that requiring a strict protocol, regarding the combinations of parts from different manufacturers for assembly, would have been almost ineffective. Conversely, this study led to the individuation of the weak point in the manufacturing process of the mating components and to the suggestion of a slight improvement to be performed, with the final result of a significant (one order of magnitude decrease of the defect rate.

  2. Use of focus groups to develop methods to communicate cardiovascular disease risk and potential for risk reduction to people with type 2 diabetes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Price, Hermione C; Dudley, Christina; Barrow, Beryl; Kennedy, Ian; Griffin, Simon J; Holman, Rury R

    2009-10-01

    People need to perceive a risk in order to build an intention-to-change behaviour yet our ability to interpret information about risk is highly variable. We aimed to use a user-centred design process to develop an animated interface for the UK Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) Risk Engine to illustrate cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk and the potential to reduce this risk. In addition, we sought to use the same approach to develop a brief lifestyle advice intervention. Three focus groups were held. Participants were provided with examples of materials used to communicate CVD risk and a leaflet containing a draft brief lifestyle advice intervention and considered their potential to increase motivation-to-change behaviours including diet, physical activity, and smoking in order to reduce CVD risk. Discussions were tape-recorded, transcribed and coded and recurring themes sought. Sixty-two percent of participants were male, mean age was 66 years (range = 47-76 years) and median age at leaving full-time education was 18 years (range = 15-40 years). Sixteen had type 2 diabetes and none had a prior history of CVD. Recurring themes from focus group discussions included the following: being less numerate is common, CVD risk reduction is important and a clear visual representation aids comprehension. A simple animated interface of the UKPDS Risk Engine to illustrate CVD risk and the potential for reducing this risk has been developed for use as a motivational tool, along with a brief lifestyle advice intervention. Future work will investigate whether use of this interactive version of the UKPDS Risk Engine and brief lifestyle advice is associated with increased behavioural intentions and changes in health behaviours designed to reduce CVD risk.

  3. Beyond the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction: Vulnerability Reduction as a Challenge Involving Historical and Traditional Buildings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valentina Pica

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available In observance of the international procedures on disaster risk management, and in particular the Sendai Framework (2015, this research focuses on how more specific procedures related to it can be made effective in the treatment of historic areas worldwide. Disaster risk management is now viewed as being important in the context of historic buildings, as they are strongly related to cultural identity as well as to resilient communities, and can have a large impact on local economies. The study points out that cultural heritage might be the core field of action for capacity building in less vulnerable places, and that its protection is one of the main tasks to attend to in order to achieve the goal of vulnerability reduction. The paper also aims to answer questions such as: which actions could allow better protection of cultural heritage? Is it correct to involve local communities in reconstruction plans by capacity building and self-managed projects? How have reconstruction plans been managed recently worldwide? By further developing the applicability of the priority areas of action of the Sendai Framework, the research illustrates critical points and best practices that will hopefully support disaster risk reduction based on strategic management and remote monitoring, involving technologies and social participation.

  4. Social media in disaster risk reduction and crisis management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexander, David E

    2014-09-01

    This paper reviews the actual and potential use of social media in emergency, disaster and crisis situations. This is a field that has generated intense interest. It is characterised by a burgeoning but small and very recent literature. In the emergencies field, social media (blogs, messaging, sites such as Facebook, wikis and so on) are used in seven different ways: listening to public debate, monitoring situations, extending emergency response and management, crowd-sourcing and collaborative development, creating social cohesion, furthering causes (including charitable donation) and enhancing research. Appreciation of the positive side of social media is balanced by their potential for negative developments, such as disseminating rumours, undermining authority and promoting terrorist acts. This leads to an examination of the ethics of social media usage in crisis situations. Despite some clearly identifiable risks, for example regarding the violation of privacy, it appears that public consensus on ethics will tend to override unscrupulous attempts to subvert the media. Moreover, social media are a robust means of exposing corruption and malpractice. In synthesis, the widespread adoption and use of social media by members of the public throughout the world heralds a new age in which it is imperative that emergency managers adapt their working practices to the challenge and potential of this development. At the same time, they must heed the ethical warnings and ensure that social media are not abused or misused when crises and emergencies occur.

  5. The critical role of volcano monitoring in risk reduction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. I. Tilling

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Data from volcano-monitoring studies constitute the only scientifically valid basis for short-term forecasts of a future eruption, or of possible changes during an ongoing eruption. Thus, in any effective hazards-mitigation program, a basic strategy in reducing volcano risk is the initiation or augmentation of volcano monitoring at historically active volcanoes and also at geologically young, but presently dormant, volcanoes with potential for reactivation. Beginning with the 1980s, substantial progress in volcano-monitoring techniques and networks – ground-based as well space-based – has been achieved. Although some geochemical monitoring techniques (e.g., remote measurement of volcanic gas emissions are being increasingly applied and show considerable promise, seismic and geodetic methods to date remain the techniques of choice and are the most widely used. Availability of comprehensive volcano-monitoring data was a decisive factor in the successful scientific and governmental responses to the reawakening of Mount St. elens (Washington, USA in 1980 and, more recently, to the powerful explosive eruptions at Mount Pinatubo (Luzon, Philippines in 1991. However, even with the ever-improving state-of-the-art in volcano monitoring and predictive capability, the Mount St. Helens and Pinatubo case histories unfortunately still represent the exceptions, rather than the rule, in successfully forecasting the most likely outcome of volcano unrest.

  6. Systematic review of fall risk screening tools for older patients in acute hospitals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matarese, Maria; Ivziku, Dhurata; Bartolozzi, Francesco; Piredda, Michela; De Marinis, Maria Grazia

    2015-06-01

    To determine the most accurate fall risk screening tools for predicting falls among patients aged 65 years or older admitted to acute care hospitals. Falls represent a serious problem in older inpatients due to the potential physical, social, psychological and economic consequences. Older inpatients present with risk factors associated with age-related physiological and psychological changes as well as multiple morbidities. Thus, fall risk screening tools for older adults should include these specific risk factors. There are no published recommendations addressing what tools are appropriate for older hospitalized adults. Systematic review. MEDLINE, CINAHL and Cochrane electronic databases were searched between January 1981-April 2013. Only prospective validation studies reporting sensitivity and specificity values were included. Recommendations of the Cochrane Handbook of Diagnostic Test Accuracy Reviews have been followed. Three fall risk assessment tools were evaluated in seven articles. Due to the limited number of studies, meta-analysis was carried out only for the STRATIFY and Hendrich Fall Risk Model II. In the combined analysis, the Hendrich Fall Risk Model II demonstrated higher sensitivity than STRATIFY, while the STRATIFY showed higher specificity. In both tools, the Youden index showed low prognostic accuracy. The identified tools do not demonstrate predictive values as high as needed for identifying older inpatients at risk for falls. For this reason, no tool can be recommended for fall detection. More research is needed to evaluate fall risk screening tools for older inpatients. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  7. Comparative effectiveness of personalized lifestyle management strategies for cardiovascular disease risk reduction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P. Chu (Paula); A. Pandya; J.A. Salomon (Joshua A); S.J. Goldie (Sue J); Hunink, M.G.M. (M.G. Myriam)

    2015-01-01

    textabstractBackground-Evidence shows that healthy diet, exercise, smoking interventions, and stress reduction reduce cardiovascular disease risk. We aimed to compare the effectiveness of these lifestyle interventions for individual risk profiles and determine their rank order in reducing 10-year

  8. Cost-effectiveness analysis of risk reduction at nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lochard, J.; Maccia, C.; Pages, P.

    1985-01-01

    Cost-effectiveness analysis of risk reduction is now widely accepted as a rational analytical framework to consistently address the resource allocation problem underlying any risk management process. This paper presents how this technique can be usefully applied to complex systems such as the management of radioactive releases from nuclear power plants into the environment. (orig.) [de

  9. Evaluation of an HIV-risk reduction programme for first-year ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Results indicated that HIV-related knowledge; condom knowledge and risk perception were enhanced by the HIV- related risk reduction programme. However, there is a need for improvement, especially with regard to attitudes towards condoms since some students still had negative attitudes even after the intervention ...

  10. Estimating mortality risk reduction and economic benefits from controlling ozone air pollution

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Committee on Estimating Mortality Risk Reduction Benefits from Decreasing Tropospheric Ozone Exposure

    2008-01-01

    ... in life expectancy, and to assess methods for estimating the monetary value of the reduced risk of premature death and increased life expectancy in the context of health-benefits analysis. Estimating Mortality Risk Reduction and Economic Benefits from Controlling Ozone Air Pollution details the committee's findings and posits several recommendations to address these issues.

  11. Governance of disaster risk reduction in Cameroon: The need to empower local government

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henry N. Bang

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available The impact of natural hazards and/or disasters in Cameroon continues to hit local communities hardest, but local government lacks the ability to manage disaster risks adequately. This is partly due to the fact that the necessity to mainstream disaster risk reduction into local governance and development practices is not yet an underlying principle of Cameroon’s disaster management framework. Using empirical and secondary data, this paper analyses the governance of disaster risks in Cameroon with particular focus on the challenges local government faces in implementing disaster risk reduction strategies. The hypothesis is that the governance of disaster risks is too centralised at the national level, with huge implications for the effective governance of disaster risks at the local level. Although Cameroon has reinvigorated efforts to address growing disaster risks in a proactive way, it is argued that the practical actions are more reactive than proactive in nature. The overall aim is to explore the challenges and opportunities that local government has in the governance of disaster risks. Based on the findings from this research, policy recommendations are suggested on ways to mainstream disaster risk reduction strategies into local governance, and advance understanding and practice in the local governance of disaster risks in the country.

  12. Moderate alcohol consumption and cardiovascular risk reduction: open issues

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simona Costanzo

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available

    Background: The inverse relationship between low to moderate alcohol consumption and several favorable health outcomes has been well established in many epidemiological studies and meta-analyses. However, several questions still remain controversial.

    Aims: To discuss a number of open questions relating to the healthy effect of a moderate intake of alcohol (especially wine on cardiovascular disease and total mortality. This will be based on findings from the literature, with a particular emphasis on meta-analyses.

    Results and Conclusion: The role of different alcoholic beverages, age and sex, confounding, former drinkers and study design has been discussed. Whether wine is better than beer or spirits, though suggestive, remains to be established. Cardiovascular morbidity and total mortality is significantly reduced both in men and women who are regular drinkers of low amounts of alcohol; however, the predicted protection in women disappears at lower doses than in men. The primary protection of alcohol decreases after adjustment for known variables, thus confirming the importance of confounding in assessing drinking effects, but it remains significant and of undoubted public health value. As the cardiovascular protection by moderate alcohol consumption might have been unduly overestimated by inclusion in control groups of former drinkers, we compared studies that used as a reference group the category of no alcohol intake and/or formally excluded former drinkers with studies which did not: the protection was indeed somewhat lower in the former than in the latter studies, but was still statistically significant. We conclude that the dose-response relationship between alcohol intake and cardiovascular risk or total mortality, consistently described by J-shaped curves, can be reasonably attributed to a combination of both real beneficial (at lower doses and harmful (at higher doses

  13. Farmers Prone to Drought Risk: Why Some Farmers Undertake Farm-Level Risk-Reduction Measures While Others Not?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gebrehiwot, Tagel; van der Veen, Anne

    2015-03-01

    This research investigates farmers' cognitive perceptions of risk and the behavioral intentions to undertake farm-level risk-reduction measures. It has been observed that people who are susceptible to natural hazards often fail to act, or do very little, to protect their assets or lives. To answer the question of why some people show adaptive behavior while others do not, a socio-psychological model of precautionary adaptation based on protection motivation theory and trans-theoretical stage model has been applied for the first time to areas of drought risk in the developing countries cultural context. The applicability of the integrated model is explored by means of a representative sample survey of smallholder farmers in northern Ethiopia. The result of the study showed that there is a statistically significant association between farmer's behavioral intention to undertake farm-level risk-reduction measures and the main important protection motivation model variables. High perceived vulnerability, severity of consequences, self-efficacy, and response efficacy lead to higher levels of behavioral intentions to undertake farm-level risk-reduction measures. For farmers in the action stage, self-efficacy and response efficacy were the main motivators of behavioral intention. For farmers in the contemplative stage, self-efficacy and cost appear to be the main motivators for them to act upon risk reduction, while perceived severity of consequences and cost of response actions were found to be important for farmers in the pre-contemplative stage.

  14. Data poverty: A global evaluation for 2009 to 2013 - implications for sustainable development and disaster risk reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leidig, Mathias; Teeuw, Richard M.; Gibson, Andrew D.

    2016-08-01

    The article presents a time series (2009-2013) analysis for a new version of the ;Digital Divide; concept that developed in the 1990s. Digital information technologies, such as the Internet, mobile phones and social media, provide vast amounts of data for decision-making and resource management. The Data Poverty Index (DPI) provides an open-source means of annually evaluating global access to data and information. The DPI can be used to monitor aspects of data and information availability at global and national levels, with potential application at local (district) levels. Access to data and information is a major factor in disaster risk reduction, increased resilience to disaster and improved adaptation to climate change. In that context, the DPI could be a useful tool for monitoring the Sustainable Development Goals of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (2015-2030). The effects of severe data poverty, particularly limited access to geoinformatic data, free software and online training materials, are discussed in the context of sustainable development and disaster risk reduction. Unlike many other indices, the DPI is underpinned by datasets that are consistently provided annually for almost all the countries of the world and can be downloaded without restriction or cost.

  15. Operational Risk Assesement Tools for Quality Management in Banking Services

    OpenAIRE

    Dima, Alina Mihaela

    2009-01-01

    Among all the different types of risks that can affect financial companies, the operational risk can be the most devastating and the most difficult to anticipate. The management of operational risk is a key component of financial and risk management discipline that drives net income results, 2capital management and customer satisfaction. The present paper contains a statistical analysis in order to determine the number of operational errors as quality based services determinants, depending on...

  16. Health risk reduction programs in employer-sponsored health plans: Part II-law and ethics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rothstein, Mark A; Harrell, Heather L

    2009-08-01

    We sought to examine the legal and ethical implications of workplace health risk reduction programs (HRRPs) using health risk assessments, individually focused risk reduction, and financial incentives to promote compliance. We conducted a literature review, analyzed relevant statutes and regulations, and considered the effects of these programs on employee health privacy. A variety of laws regulate HRRPs, and there is little evidence that employer-sponsored HRRPs violate these provisions; infringement on individual health privacy is more difficult to assess. Although current laws permit a wide range of employer health promotion activities, HRRPs also may entail largely unquantifiable costs to employee privacy and related interests.

  17. Health Risk Reduction Programs in Employer-Sponsored Health Plans: Part II—Law and Ethics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rothstein, Mark A.; Harrell, Heather L.

    2011-01-01

    Objective We sought to examine the legal and ethical implications of workplace health risk reduction programs (HRRPs) using health risk assessments, individually focused risk reduction, and financial incentives to promote compliance. Methods We conducted a literature review, analyzed relevant statutes and regulations, and considered the effects of these programs on employee health privacy. Results A variety of laws regulate HRRPs, and there is little evidence that employer-sponsored HRRPs violate these provisions; infringement on individual health privacy is more difficult to assess. Conclusion Although current laws permit a wide range of employer health promotion activities, HRRPs also may entail largely unquantifiable costs to employee privacy and related interests. PMID:19625971

  18. Assessment of Interpersonal Risk (AIR) in Adults with Learning Disabilities and Challenging Behaviour--Piloting a New Risk Assessment Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, Martin; McCue, Michael

    2013-01-01

    A new risk assessment tool, "Assessment of Interpersonal Risk" (AIR), was piloted and evaluated to measure risk factors and compatibility between individuals living in an assessment and treatment unit in one NHS area. The adults with learning disabilities in this unit had severe and enduring mental health problems and/or behaviour that is severely…

  19. US-Soviet cooperation in countering nuclear terrorism: the role of risk reduction centers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nunn, S.; Warner, J.W.

    1987-01-01

    Preventing nuclear terrorism should be high on the agenda of US-Soviet relations. Indeed, the specter of nuclear terrorism, more than any other factor originally prompted and has subsequently sustained the author's deep interest in US-Soviet agreements on establishment of US-Soviet Nuclear Risk Reduction Centers and other important risk-reduction measures. Such centers can play an invaluable role in facilitating discussions aimed at forestalling possible contingencies and in providing a mechanism for dampening escalatory dangers that might otherwise result from any future nuclear terrorism incident. In addition to these crucial substantive functions, the centers could serve to reassure anxious publics that the governments they have entrusted with command authority over tens of thousands of nuclear devices are giving the highest priority to reducing the risk that any of them will ever be used, whether by design or by accident. Nuclear risk Reduction Centers are an idea whose time has come

  20. Falls risk assessment begins with hello: lessons learned from the use of one home health agency's fall risk tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flemming, Patricia J; Ramsay, Katherine

    2012-10-01

    Identifying older adults at risk for falls is a challenge all home healthcare agencies (HHAs) face. The process of assessing for falls risk begins with the initial home visit. One HHA affiliated with an academic medical center describes its experience in development and use of a Falls Risk Assessment (FRA) tool over a 10-year period. The FRA tool has been modified since initial development to clarify elements of the tool based on research and to reflect changes in the Outcome and Assessment Information Set (OASIS) document. The primary purpose of this article is to share a validated falls risk assessment tool to facilitate identification of fall-related risk factors in the homebound population. A secondary purpose is to share lessons learned by the HHA during the 10 years using the FRA.

  1. The Efficacy of Violence Prediction: A Meta-Analytic Comparison of Nine Risk Assessment Tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Min; Wong, Stephen C. P.; Coid, Jeremy

    2010-01-01

    Actuarial risk assessment tools are used extensively to predict future violence, but previous studies comparing their predictive accuracies have produced inconsistent findings as a result of various methodological issues. We conducted meta-analyses of the effect sizes of 9 commonly used risk assessment tools and their subscales to compare their…

  2. Disaster Risk Reduction through Innovative Uses of Crowd Sourcing (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berger, J.; Greene, M.

    2010-12-01

    Crowd sourcing can be described as a method of distributed problem-solving. It takes advantage of the power of the crowd, which can in some cases be a community of experts and in other cases the collective insight of a broader range of contributors with varying degrees of domain knowledge. The term crowd sourcing was first used by Jeff Howe in a June 2006 Wired magazine article “The Rise of Crowdsourcing,” and is a combination of the terms “crowd” and “outsourcing.” Some commonly known examples of crowd sourcing, in its broadest sense, include Wikepedia, distributed participatory design projects, and consumer websites such as Yelp and Angie’s List. The popularity and success of early large-scale crowd sourcing activities is made possible through leveraging Web 2.0 technologies that allow for mass participation from distributed individuals. The Earthquake Engineering Research Institute (EERI) in Oakland, California recently participated in two crowd sourcing projects. One was initiated and coordinated by EERI, while in the second case EERI was invited to contribute once the crowd sourcing activity was underway. In both projects there was: 1) the determination of a problem or set of tasks that could benefit immediately from the engagement of an informed volunteer group of professionals; 2) a segmenting of the problem into discrete pieces that could be completed in a short period of time (from ten minutes to four hours); 3) a call to action, where an interested community was made aware of the project; and 4) the collection, aggregation, vetting and ultimately distribution of the results in a relatively short period of time. The first EERI crowd sourcing example was the use of practicing engineers and engineering students in California to help estimate the number of pre-1980 concrete buildings in the high seismic risk counties in the state. This building type is known to perform poorly in earthquakes, and state officials were interested in understanding

  3. Perceptions of farmers on health risks and risk reduction measures in wastewater-irrigated urban vegetable farming in Ghana

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Keraita, Bernard; Drechsel, Pay; Konradsen, Flemming

    2008-01-01

    , authorities and the general public, especially if they had some incentives. These findings demonstrate the need to involve farmers as early as possible in intervention projects especially in informal farming practices, like urban agriculture, where restrictions are difficult to implement. This will ensure......Most irrigation water used in urban vegetable farming in Ghana is contaminated with untreated wastewater. This poses health risks to farmers and consumers. As part of a study to explore options for health risk reduction, this paper summarizes farmers' perceptions on health risks and possible risk...

  4. Comparative Effectiveness of Personalized Lifestyle Management Strategies for Cardiovascular Disease Risk Reduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chu, Paula; Pandya, Ankur; Salomon, Joshua A; Goldie, Sue J; Hunink, M G Myriam

    2016-03-29

    Evidence shows that healthy diet, exercise, smoking interventions, and stress reduction reduce cardiovascular disease risk. We aimed to compare the effectiveness of these lifestyle interventions for individual risk profiles and determine their rank order in reducing 10-year cardiovascular disease risk. We computed risks using the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Pooled Cohort Equations for a variety of individual profiles. Using published literature on risk factor reductions through diverse lifestyle interventions-group therapy for stopping smoking, Mediterranean diet, aerobic exercise (walking), and yoga-we calculated the risk reduction through each of these interventions to determine the strategy associated with the maximum benefit for each profile. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to test the robustness of the results. In the base-case analysis, yoga was associated with the largest 10-year cardiovascular disease risk reductions (maximum absolute reduction 16.7% for the highest-risk individuals). Walking generally ranked second (max 11.4%), followed by Mediterranean diet (max 9.2%), and group therapy for smoking (max 1.6%). If the individual was a current smoker and successfully quit smoking (ie, achieved complete smoking cessation), then stopping smoking yielded the largest reduction. Probabilistic and 1-way sensitivity analysis confirmed the demonstrated trend. This study reports the comparative effectiveness of several forms of lifestyle modifications and found smoking cessation and yoga to be the most effective forms of cardiovascular disease prevention. Future research should focus on patient adherence to personalized therapies, cost-effectiveness of these strategies, and the potential for enhanced benefit when interventions are performed simultaneously rather than as single measures. © 2016 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley Blackwell.

  5. Sexual health risk reduction interventions for people with severe mental illness: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pandor, Abdullah; Kaltenthaler, Eva; Higgins, Agnes; Lorimer, Karen; Smith, Shubulade; Wylie, Kevan; Wong, Ruth

    2015-02-12

    Despite variability in sexual activity among people with severe mental illness, high-risk sexual behavior (e.g. unprotected intercourse, multiple partners, sex trade and illicit drug use) is common. Sexual health risk reduction interventions (such as educational and behavioral interventions, motivational exercises, counselling and service delivery), developed and implemented for people with severe mental illness, may improve participants' knowledge, attitudes, beliefs behaviors or practices (including assertiveness skills) and could lead to a reduction in risky sexual behavior. This systematic review evaluates the effectiveness of sexual health risk reduction interventions for people with severe mental illness. Thirteen electronic databases (including MEDLINE, EMBASE and PsycINFO) were searched to August 2014, and supplemented by hand-searching relevant articles and contacting experts. All controlled trials (randomized or non-randomized) comparing the effectiveness of sexual health risk reduction interventions with usual care for individuals living in the community with severe mental illness were included. Outcomes included a range of biological, behavioral and proxy endpoints. Narrative synthesis was used to combine the evidence. Thirteen controlled trials (all from the USA) were included. Although there was no clear and consistent evidence that interventions reduce the total number of sex partners or improved behavioral intentions in sexual risk behavior, positive effects were generally observed in condom use, condom protected intercourse and on measures of HIV knowledge, attitudes to condom use and sexual behaviors and practices. However, the robustness of these findings is low due to the large between study variability, small sample sizes and low-to-moderate quality of included studies. There is insufficient evidence at present to fully support or reject the identified sexual health risk reduction interventions for people with severe mental illness. Given the

  6. Geology for Global Development: Mobilising and equipping young geologists to engage in disaster risk reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gill, Joel

    2016-04-01

    Geology for Global Development (GfGD) is a not-for-profit organisation working to mobilise and equip geologists to engage in all aspects of sustainable development, including disaster risk reduction (DRR). Geologists have a crucial role to play in DRR, and the recently agreed Sendai Framework for DRR 2015-2030. This framework aims to significantly reduce loss of lives and livelihoods due to disasters. The geology community have an understanding of the Earth, its physical structure, and the processes by which it is constantly being shaped which are of particular relevance to Priorities for Action 1 and 4 noted within the Sendai Framework. Effective engagement by geologists, however, requires many skills beyond the standard geology curriculum. Cultural understanding, cross-disciplinary communication, diplomacy, community mobilization and participation, knowledge exchange, and an understanding of social science research tools are commonly necessary for effective research and engagement in the science-policy-practice interface. Topical and disciplinary knowledge, such as understanding social vulnerability, international policy frameworks and development theory are also rarely included in the education and professional training of a young geologist. Through the work of GfGD, we are training young geologists with these skills and the supporting knowledge required to make an effective contribution to reducing disaster risk, support civil society, empower communities and help to strengthen resilience. University chapters have been established in 14 major UK and Irish universities, coordinating extra-curricular seminars, workshops and discussion activities. Our work is currently focused on supporting young geologists, but we are increasingly a respected voice at international geoscience forums that gather a wide range of students and professionals. Wider (national and international) activities include conferences, placements and facilitating youth engagement in education

  7. Breast Cancer-Related Arm Lymphedema: Incidence Rates, Diagnostic Techniques, Optimal Management and Risk Reduction Strategies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shah, Chirag [Department of Radiation Oncology, William Beaumont Hospital, Royal Oak, MI (United States); Vicini, Frank A., E-mail: fvicini@beaumont.edu [Department of Radiation Oncology, William Beaumont Hospital, Royal Oak, MI (United States)

    2011-11-15

    As more women survive breast cancer, long-term toxicities affecting their quality of life, such as lymphedema (LE) of the arm, gain importance. Although numerous studies have attempted to determine incidence rates, identify optimal diagnostic tests, enumerate efficacious treatment strategies and outline risk reduction guidelines for breast cancer-related lymphedema (BCRL), few groups have consistently agreed on any of these issues. As a result, standardized recommendations are still lacking. This review will summarize the latest data addressing all of these concerns in order to provide patients and health care providers with optimal, contemporary recommendations. Published incidence rates for BCRL vary substantially with a range of 2-65% based on surgical technique, axillary sampling method, radiation therapy fields treated, and the use of chemotherapy. Newer clinical assessment tools can potentially identify BCRL in patients with subclinical disease with prospective data suggesting that early diagnosis and management with noninvasive therapy can lead to excellent outcomes. Multiple therapies exist with treatments defined by the severity of BCRL present. Currently, the standard of care for BCRL in patients with significant LE is complex decongestive physiotherapy (CDP). Contemporary data also suggest that a multidisciplinary approach to the management of BCRL should begin prior to definitive treatment for breast cancer employing patient-specific surgical, radiation therapy, and chemotherapy paradigms that limit risks. Further, prospective clinical assessments before and after treatment should be employed to diagnose subclinical disease. In those patients who require aggressive locoregional management, prophylactic therapies and the use of CDP can help reduce the long-term sequelae of BCRL.

  8. Breast Cancer-Related Arm Lymphedema: Incidence Rates, Diagnostic Techniques, Optimal Management and Risk Reduction Strategies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shah, Chirag; Vicini, Frank A.

    2011-01-01

    As more women survive breast cancer, long-term toxicities affecting their quality of life, such as lymphedema (LE) of the arm, gain importance. Although numerous studies have attempted to determine incidence rates, identify optimal diagnostic tests, enumerate efficacious treatment strategies and outline risk reduction guidelines for breast cancer–related lymphedema (BCRL), few groups have consistently agreed on any of these issues. As a result, standardized recommendations are still lacking. This review will summarize the latest data addressing all of these concerns in order to provide patients and health care providers with optimal, contemporary recommendations. Published incidence rates for BCRL vary substantially with a range of 2–65% based on surgical technique, axillary sampling method, radiation therapy fields treated, and the use of chemotherapy. Newer clinical assessment tools can potentially identify BCRL in patients with subclinical disease with prospective data suggesting that early diagnosis and management with noninvasive therapy can lead to excellent outcomes. Multiple therapies exist with treatments defined by the severity of BCRL present. Currently, the standard of care for BCRL in patients with significant LE is complex decongestive physiotherapy (CDP). Contemporary data also suggest that a multidisciplinary approach to the management of BCRL should begin prior to definitive treatment for breast cancer employing patient-specific surgical, radiation therapy, and chemotherapy paradigms that limit risks. Further, prospective clinical assessments before and after treatment should be employed to diagnose subclinical disease. In those patients who require aggressive locoregional management, prophylactic therapies and the use of CDP can help reduce the long-term sequelae of BCRL.

  9. POTENTIAL HEALTH RISK REDUCTION ARISING FROM REDUCED MERCURY EMISSIONS FROM COAL FIRED POWER PLANTS.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sullivan, T. M.; Lipfert, F. W.; Morris, S. C.; Moskowitz, P. D.

    2001-09-01

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has announced plans to regulate mercury (Hg) emissions from coal-fired power plants. EPA has not prepared a quantitative assessment of the reduction in risk that could be achieved through reduction in coal plant emissions of Hg. To address this issue, Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) with support from the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Fossil Energy (DOE FE) prepared a quantitative assessment of the reduction in human health risk that could be achieved through reduction in coal plant emissions of Hg. The primary pathway for Hg exposure is through consumption of fish. The most susceptible population to Hg exposure is the fetus. Therefore the risk assessment focused on consumption of fish by women of child-bearing age. Dose response factors were generated from studies on loss of cognitive abilities (language skills, motor skills, etc.) by young children whose mothers consumed large amounts of fish with high Hg levels. Population risks were estimated for the general population in three regions of the country, (the Midwest, Northeast, and Southeast) that were identified by EPA as being heavily impacted by coal emissions. Three scenarios for reducing Hg emissions from coal plants were considered: (1) A base case using current conditions; (2) A 50% reduction; and, (3) A 90% reduction. These reductions in emissions were assumed to translate linearly into a reduction in fish Hg levels of 8.6% and 15.5%, respectively. Population risk estimates were also calculated for two subsistence fisher populations. These groups of people consume substantially more fish than the general public and, depending on location, the fish may contain higher Hg levels than average. Risk estimates for these groups were calculated for the three Hg levels used for the general population analyses. Analysis shows that the general population risks for exposure of the fetus to Hg are small. Estimated risks under current conditions (i.e., no

  10. Parallel structures for disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation in Southern Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Per Becker

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available During the last decade, the interest of the international community in the concepts of disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation has been growing immensely. Even though an increasing number of scholars seem to view these concepts as two sides of the same coin (at least when not considering the potentially positive effects of climate change, in practice the two concepts have developed in parallel rather than in an integrated manner when it comes to policy, rhetoric and funding opportunities amongst international organisations and donors. This study investigates the extent of the creation of parallel structures for disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation in the Southern African Development Community (SADC region. The chosen methodology for the study is a comparative case study and the data are collected through focus groups and content analysis of documentary sources, as well as interviews with key informants. The results indicate that parallel structures for disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation have been established in all but one of the studied countries. The qualitative interviews performed in some of the countries indicate that stakeholders in disaster risk reduction view this duplication of structures as unfortunate, inefficient and a fertile setup for conflict over resources for the implementation of similar activities. Additional research is called for in order to study the concrete effects of having these parallel structures as a foundation for advocacy for more efficient future disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation.

  11. Estimating the Value of Price Risk Reduction in Energy Efficiency Investments in Buildings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pekka Tuominen

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a method for calculating the value of price risk reduction to a consumer that can be achieved with investments in energy efficiency. The value of price risk reduction is discussed to some length in general terms in the literature reviewed but, so far, no methodology for calculating the value has been presented. Here we suggest such a method. The problem of valuating price risk reduction is approached using a variation of the Black–Scholes model by considering a hypothetical financial instrument that a consumer would purchase to insure herself against unexpected price hikes. This hypothetical instrument is then compared with an actual energy efficiency investment that reaches the same level of price risk reduction. To demonstrate the usability of the method, case examples are calculated for typical single-family houses in Finland. The results show that the price risk entailed in household energy consumption can be reduced by a meaningful amount with energy efficiency investments, and that the monetary value of this reduction can be calculated. It is argued that this often-overlooked benefit of energy efficiency investments merits more consideration in future studies.

  12. Quantitative risk assessment: an emerging tool for emerging foodborne pathogens.

    OpenAIRE

    Lammerding, A. M.; Paoli, G. M.

    1997-01-01

    New challenges to the safety of the food supply require new strategies for evaluating and managing food safety risks. Changes in pathogens, food preparation, distribution, and consumption, and population immunity have the potential to adversely affect human health. Risk assessment offers a framework for predicting the impact of changes and trends on the provision of safe food. Risk assessment models facilitate the evaluation of active or passive changes in how foods are produced, processed, d...

  13. Analysing Surface Exposure to Climate Dynamics in the Himalayas to Adopt a Planning Framework for Landslide Risk Reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tiwari, A.

    2017-12-01

    Himalayas rank first in the inventory of most densely populated and congested high altitude mountain regions of the planet. The region is mostly characterized by inadequate infrastructure, lack of mitigation tools along with constraints of terrain undermining the carrying capacity and resilience of urban ecosystems. Moreover, climate change has increased vulnerability of poor and marginalized population living in rapidly urbanizing mountain towns to increased frequency and severity of risks from extreme weather events. Such events pose multifold threat by easily translating to hazards, without the ability to respond and mitigate. Additionally, the recent extreme climate dynamics such as rainfall patterns have influenced the natural rate of surface/slope processes in the Himalaya. The aim of the study was to analyze the extent of interaction between climate dynamics and upland surface to develop participatory planning framework for landslide risk reduction using Integral Geographic Information System (integral GIS). At this stage, the study is limited to only rainfall triggered landslides (RTL). The study region lies in the middle Himalayan range (Himachal). Research utilized terrain analysis tools in integral GIS and identified risk susceptible surface without: 1.adding to its (often) complex fragmentation, and 2. Interference in surface/slope processes. Analysis covered most of the relevant surface factors including geology, slope instability, infrastructure development, natural and urban drainage system, land-cover and land-use as well. The outcome included an exposure-reduced model of existing terrain and the surface-process accommodated by it, with the use of local technical tools available among the poor and fragile mountain community. The final participatory planning framework successfully harmonized people's perception and adaptation knowledge, and incorporated priorities of local authorities. This research is significant as it rises above the fundamental

  14. Evaluation of severe accident risks and the potential for risk reduction: Surry Power Station, Unit 1: Draft report for comment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benjamin, A.S.; Boyd, G.J.; Kunsman, D.M.; Murfin, W.B.; Williams, D.C.

    1987-02-01

    The Severe Accident Risk Reduction Program (SARRP) has completed a rebaselining of the risks to the public from a particular pressurized water reactor with a subatmospheric containment (Surry, Unit 1). Emphasis was placed on determining the magnitude and character of the uncertainties, rather than focusing on a point estimate. The risk-reduction potential of a set of proposed safety option backfits was also studied, and their costs and benefits were also evaluated. It was found that the risks from internal events are generally lower than previously evaluated in the Reactor Safety Study (RSS). However, certain unresolved issues (such as direct containment heating) caused the top of the uncertainty band to appear at a level that is comparable with the RSS point estimate. None of the postulated safety options appears to be cost effective for the Surry power plant. This work supports the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's assessment of severe accidents in NUREG-1150

  15. Evaluation of severe accident risks and the potential for risk reduction: Surry Power Station, Unit 1: Draft report for comment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Benjamin, A.S.; Boyd, G.J.; Kunsman, D.M.; Murfin, W.B.; Williams, D.C.

    1987-02-01

    The Severe Accident Risk Reduction Program (SARRP) has completed a rebaselining of the risks to the public from a particular pressurized water reactor with a subatmospheric containment (Surry, Unit 1). Emphasis was placed on determining the magnitude and character of the uncertainties, rather than focusing on a point estimate. The risk-reduction potential of a set of proposed safety option backfits was also studied, and their costs and benefits were also evaluated. It was found that the risks from internal events are generally lower than previously evaluated in the Reactor Safety Study (RSS). However, certain unresolved issues (such as direct containment heating) caused the top of the uncertainty band to appear at a level that is comparable with the RSS point estimate. None of the postulated safety options appears to be cost effective for the Surry power plant. This work supports the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's assessment of severe accidents in NUREG-1150.

  16. S-bases as a tool to solve reduction problems for Feynman integrals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smirnov, A.V.; Smirnov, V.A.

    2006-01-01

    We suggest a mathematical definition of the notion of master integrals and present a brief review of algorithmic methods to solve reduction problems for Feynman integrals based on integration by parts relations. In particular, we discuss a recently suggested reduction algorithm which uses Groebner bases. New results obtained with its help for a family of three-loop Feynman integrals are outlined

  17. S-bases as a tool to solve reduction problems for Feynman integrals

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smirnov, A.V. [Scientific Research Computing Center of Moscow State University, Moscow 119992 (Russian Federation); Smirnov, V.A. [Nuclear Physics Institute of Moscow State University, Moscow 119992 (Russian Federation)

    2006-10-15

    We suggest a mathematical definition of the notion of master integrals and present a brief review of algorithmic methods to solve reduction problems for Feynman integrals based on integration by parts relations. In particular, we discuss a recently suggested reduction algorithm which uses Groebner bases. New results obtained with its help for a family of three-loop Feynman integrals are outlined.

  18. The RACER (risk analysis, communication, evaluation, and reduction) stakeholder environmental data transparency project for Los Alamos National Laboratory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Echohawk, John Chris; Dorries, Alison M.; Eberhart, Craig F.; Werdel, Nancy

    2008-01-01

    The RACER (Risk Analysis, Communication, Evaluation, and Reduction) project was created in 2003, as an effort to enhance the Los Alamos National Laboratory's ability to effectively communicate the data and processes used to evaluate environmental risks to the public and the environment. The RACER project staff consists of members of Risk Assessment Corporation, Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), and the New Mexico Environment Department (NMED). RACER staff worked closely with members of the community, tribal governments, and others within NMED and LANL to create innovative tools and a process that could provide information to regulators, LANL and the community about the sources of public health risk and ecological impact from LAN L operations. The RACER Data Analysis Tool (DA T) provides the public with webbased access to environmental measurement data collected in and around the LANL site. Its purpose is to provide a 'transparent' view to the public of all data collected by LANL and NMED regarding the LANL site. The DAT is available to the public at 'www.racernm.com'.

  19. Cost and risk reduction using upfront licensing in Canada. Annex 15

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Snell, V.G.

    2002-01-01

    The paper summarizes the use of 'up-front' licensing in Canada - how licensing requirements are defined, and met - in advance of a project commitment. The approach to licensing in Canada has allowed flexibility in development of new designs. Since licensing was originally risk-based, and current regulatory policy allows cost-benefit considerations as part of the decision making, risk can be and should be used in novel circumstances as a licensing tool. Since the licensing framework is non-prescriptive, innovative approaches to design can be introduced and dispositioned without changing the legal structure. This flexibility has been used in several up-front licensing reviews: a small urban heating reactor, repeat CANDU 6 generating station units, and the single unit CANDU 9 generating station. In the future we expect to apply it to advanced designs, as an essential part of risk reduction and customer confidence in the product. The important lessons learned in Canada include: Up-front licensing is essential to reduce the risk of licensing-related delays once a project has been committed. It requires a significant investment in time and effort from both the designer and the regulator; The most effective scope for up-front licensing is for the regulator to thoroughly assess novel concepts, test the design against changed domestic requirements, and follow-up on known difficult areas; and for the designer to ensure foreign requirements are incorporated. There is little benefit in certifying the design in detail; Although it would be satisfying to have legally-binding certification, in the end there can be no legal obligation on the regulator, and agreement is pursued on the basis of good faith that the regulator will not make arbitrary decisions and that the designer will meet agreed targets or requirements; In almost all circumstances, issues will arise that are beyond the current 'rules', however expressed. Rather than rushing to create new rules, one reaches a

  20. Reflections from the interface between seismological research and earthquake risk reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sargeant, S.

    2012-04-01

    Scientific understanding of earthquakes and their attendant hazards is vital for the development of effective earthquake risk reduction strategies. Within the global disaster reduction policy framework (the Hyogo Framework for Action, overseen by the UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction), the anticipated role of science and scientists is clear, with respect to risk assessment, loss estimation, space-based observation, early warning and forecasting. The importance of information sharing and cooperation, cross-disciplinary networks and developing technical and institutional capacity for effective disaster management is also highlighted. In practice, the degree to which seismological information is successfully delivered to and applied by individuals, groups or organisations working to manage or reduce the risk from earthquakes is variable. The challenge for scientists is to provide fit-for-purpose information that can be integrated simply into decision-making and risk reduction activities at all levels of governance and at different geographic scales, often by a non-technical audience (i.e. people without any seismological/earthquake engineering training). The interface between seismological research and earthquake risk reduction (defined here in terms of both the relationship between the science and its application, and the scientist and other risk stakeholders) is complex. This complexity is a function of a range issues that arise relating to communication, multidisciplinary working, politics, organisational practices, inter-organisational collaboration, working practices, sectoral cultures, individual and organisational values, worldviews and expectations. These factors can present significant obstacles to scientific information being incorporated into the decision-making process. The purpose of this paper is to present some personal reflections on the nature of the interface between the worlds of seismological research and risk reduction, and the

  1. Systematic analysis of natural hazards along infrastructure networks using a GIS-tool for risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baruffini, Mirko

    2010-05-01

    Due to the topographical conditions in Switzerland, the highways and the railway lines are frequently exposed to natural hazards as rockfalls, debris flows, landslides, avalanches and others. With the rising incidence of those natural hazards, protection measures become an important political issue. However, they are costly, and maximal protection is most probably not economically feasible. Furthermore risks are distributed in space and time. Consequently, important decision problems to the public sector decision makers are derived. This asks for a high level of surveillance and preservation along the transalpine lines. Efficient protection alternatives can be obtained consequently considering the concept of integral risk management. Risk analysis, as the central part of risk management, has become gradually a generally accepted approach for the assessment of current and future scenarios (Loat & Zimmermann 2004). The procedure aims at risk reduction which can be reached by conventional mitigation on one hand and the implementation of land-use planning on the other hand: a combination of active and passive mitigation measures is applied to prevent damage to buildings, people and infrastructures. With a Geographical Information System adapted to run with a tool developed to manage Risk analysis it is possible to survey the data in time and space, obtaining an important system for managing natural risks. As a framework, we adopt the Swiss system for risk analysis of gravitational natural hazards (BUWAL 1999). It offers a complete framework for the analysis and assessment of risks due to natural hazards, ranging from hazard assessment for gravitational natural hazards, such as landslides, collapses, rockfalls, floodings, debris flows and avalanches, to vulnerability assessment and risk analysis, and the integration into land use planning at the cantonal and municipality level. The scheme is limited to the direct consequences of natural hazards. Thus, we develop a

  2. Investigation of the Effect of Control Measures on Reduction of Risk Events in an Edible Oil Factory in Tehran, Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Malihe Kolahdouzi

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Background & Aims of the Study: Identification of hazards is one of the first goals of risk analysis. Failure mode and effect analysis method (FMEA is universally defined as efficient procedures for finding potential failures aimed to remove or decrease the risk which is related to them. This study aimed to investigate the effect of control measures on reduction of risk events in an edible oil factory in Tehran. Methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted in an edible oil factory in Tehran, Iran. For this, a four-member team of safety engineer experts was formed. Some factory units were selected randomly. After that, in all units, probability, severity and detection probability of hazards in all processes and tasks were assessed based on FMEA method. Regarding to the RPN, some control measures were taken to reduce the risk of events. After 9 months, risk assessment was repeated; primary and secondary RPNs were compared with each other to investigate the effect of interventions. Results: The results showed that highest and lowest probability of hazard were related to installation and can production unit, respectively. The highest and lowest severity of hazard were related to tool and can production unit, respectively. There was a significant difference between the probability of hazard in can-making and filling units, before and after the interventions. There was a significant difference between the severity of hazard in can-making, filling and neutralization units, before and after the interventions. As well, total probability, severity and RPN had a significant difference in all parts of the factory before and after the interventions. Conclusions: According to the results of this study and the overall risk reduction caused by interventional measures, it can be concluded that, FMEA is a successful method for identifying hazards and risk control measures.

  3. Risk measures in practical use: risk reduction has its price, but is it known?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reinertsen, Rune

    1995-01-01

    Different risk measures are discussed in order to decide which to use to best express the risk workers are exposed to. A new risk measure is introduced and advantages and disadvantages are presented. The need for a new risk measure (Expected Number of Fatalities Rate ENFR), is discussed and explained with the help of an example. The example also contains a comparison with the well-known FAR-value. Also some problems and benefits of introducing a measure of the kind: ΔRISK/Δ$ are discussed and conclusions made. The question of what amount of money should be used on risk reducing activities is also addressed

  4. Risk management plans as a tool for proactive pharmacovigilance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vermeer, N S; Duijnhoven, R G; Straus, S M J M

    2014-01-01

    Risk Management Plans (RMPs) have become a cornerstone in the pharmacovigilance of new drugs in Europe. The RMP was introduced in 2005 to support a proactive approach in gaining knowledge on safety concerns through early planning of pharmacovigilance activities. However, the rate at which...... of uncertainties, suggests that opportunities for optimization exist while ensuring feasible and risk-proportionate pharmacovigilance planning....

  5. First Evaluation of a Contingency Management Intervention Addressing Adolescent Substance Use and Sexual Risk Behaviors: Risk Reduction Therapy for Adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Letourneau, Elizabeth J; McCart, Michael R; Sheidow, Ashli J; Mauro, Pia M

    2017-01-01

    There is a need for interventions that comprehensively address youth substance use disorders (SUD) and sexual risk behaviors. Risk Reduction Therapy for Adolescents (RRTA) adapts a validated family-focused intervention for youth SUD to include sexual risk reduction components in a single intervention. In this first evaluation of RRTA, drug court involved youth were randomly assigned to RRTA (N=45) or usual services (US; N=60) and followed through 12-months post-baseline. RRTA included weekly cognitive behavior therapy and behavior management training and contingency-contracting with a point earning system managed by caregivers targeting drug use and sexual risk antecedents. Longitudinal models estimated within-group change and between-group differences through 6- and 12-month follow-up on outcomes for substance use, sexual risk behaviors, and protective HIV behaviors. Robust effects of the intervention were not detected under conditions of the study that included potent background interventions by the juvenile drug court. Considerations about future development and testing of sexual risk reduction therapy for youth are discussed, including the potential role of contingency management in future interventions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. NanoRisk - A Conceptual Decision Support Tool for Nanomaterials

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Steffen Foss; Baun, Anders; Alstrup Jensen, K.

    2011-01-01

    Only a few risk assessment methodologies and approaches are useful for assessing the risk for professional end-users, consumers and the environment. We have developed a generic framework (NanoRiskCat) that can be used by companies and risk assessors to categorize nanomaterials considering existing...... environmental, health and safety information and known uncertainties. In NanoRiskCat’s simplest form, the final evaluation outcome for a specific nanomaterial in a given application will be communicated in the form of a short title (e.g. TiO2 in sunscreen) describing the use of the nanomaterial. This short...... to the exposure and hazard potential are green , yellow corresponding to none, possible, expected and unknown, respectively. The exposure potential was evaluated based on 1) the location of the nanomaterial and 2) a judgment of the potential of nanomaterial exposure based on the description and explanation...

  7. Malnutrition risk in hospitalized children: use of 3 screening tools in a large European population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chourdakis, Michael; Hecht, Christina; Gerasimidis, Konstantinos; Joosten, Koen Fm; Karagiozoglou-Lampoudi, Thomais; Koetse, Harma A; Ksiazyk, Janusz; Lazea, Cecilia; Shamir, Raanan; Szajewska, Hania; Koletzko, Berthold; Hulst, Jessie M

    2016-05-01

    Several malnutrition screening tools have been advocated for use in pediatric inpatients. We evaluated how 3 popular pediatric nutrition screening tools [i.e., the Pediatric Yorkhill Malnutrition Score (PYMS), the Screening Tool for the Assessment of Malnutrition in Pediatrics (STAMP), and the Screening Tool for Risk of Impaired Nutritional Status and Growth (STRONGKIDS)] compared with and were related to anthropometric measures, body composition, and clinical variables in patients who were admitted to tertiary hospitals across Europe. The 3 screening tools were applied in 2567 inpatients at 14 hospitals across 12 European countries. The classification of patients into different nutritional risk groups was compared between tools and related to anthropometric measures and clinical variables [e.g., length of hospital stay (LOS) and infection rates]. A similar rate of completion of the screening tools for each tool was achieved (PYMS: 86%; STAMP: 84%; and STRONGKIDS: 81%). Risk classification differed markedly by tool, with an overall agreement of 41% between tools. Children categorized as high risk (PYMS: 25%; STAMP: 23%; and STRONGKIDS: 10%) had a longer LOS than that of children at low risk (1.4, 1.4, and 1.8 d longer, respectively; P malnutrition risk varied across the pediatric tools used. A considerable portion of children with subnormal anthropometric measures were not identified with all of the tools. The data obtained do not allow recommending the use of any of these screening tools for clinical practice. This study was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT01132742. © 2016 American Society for Nutrition.

  8. Application of Risk Monitor MAREas tool in operation and maintenance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carretero, J. A.; Fuentes, I.

    2004-01-01

    From the very beginning and ongoing application objective of the Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) was to develop Monitors. Their development was contingent on the PSA model computing capacity of the computer tools. the availability of effective tools, as well as the requirements of the Consejo de Seguridad Nuclear to apply the Maintenance Rule, have driven their implementation in Spain. The MARE application of Empresarios Agrupados presented herein has been developed for that purpose and has been implemented in Almaraz NPP. This article describes the process followed and experience in using it. (Author)

  9. Human System Risk Management - Tools of our Trade

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ott, C. Mark

    2009-01-01

    The risk of infectious disease to select individuals has historically been difficult to predict in either spaceflight or on Earth with health care efforts relying on broad-based prevention and post-infection treatment. Over the past 10 years, quantitative microbial risk assessment evaluations have evolved to formalize the assessment process and quantify the risk. This process of hazard identification, exposure assessment, dose-response assessment, and risk characterization has been applied by the water and food safety industries to address the public health impacts associated with the occurrence of and human exposure to pathogens in water and food for the development of preventive strategies for microbial disease. NASA is currently investigating the feasibility of using these techniques to better understand the risks to astronauts and refine their microbiological requirements. To assess these techniques, NASA began an evaluation of the potable water system on the International Space Station to determine how the microbial risk from water consumption during flight differed from terrestrial sources, such as municipal water systems. The ultimate goal of this work is to optimize microbial requirements which would minimize unnecessary cargo and use of crew time, while still protecting the health of the crew. Successful demonstration of this risk assessment framework with the water system holds the potential to maximize the use of available resources during spaceflight missions and facilitate investigations into the evaluation of other routes of infection, such as through the spaceflight foods system.

  10. 76 FR 44301 - Information Collection; Homeowner Risk Reduction Behaviors Concerning Wildfire Risks and Climate...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-07-25

    ... the design of more effective risk mitigation projects and improved communication strategies among.... This information will assist the Forest Service in their risk communication efforts with ``at risk... of California State University of Long Beach, Long Beach, California. The results will be made...

  11. Exploring Perceived Risk and Risk Reduction Strategies in the Pursuit of Higher Education Abroad

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lam, Jason M. S.; Tong, David Yoon Kin; Ariffin, Ahmad Azmi M.

    2017-01-01

    While past studies have merely focused on perceived risks that influence how students select the destination of international education best suited to their needs, research on perceived risk regarding post-purchase behavior remains limited. This study attempts to extend and redefine the perceived risk paradigm by uncovering the underlying elements…

  12. Copper increases reductive dehalogenation of haloacetamides by zero-valent iron in drinking water: Reduction efficiency and integrated toxicity risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chu, Wenhai; Li, Xin; Bond, Tom; Gao, Naiyun; Bin, Xu; Wang, Qiongfang; Ding, Shunke

    2016-12-15

    The haloacetamides (HAcAms), an emerging class of nitrogen-containing disinfection byproducts (N-DBPs), are highly cytotoxic and genotoxic, and typically occur in treated drinking waters at low μg/L concentrations. Since many drinking distribution and storage systems contain unlined cast iron and copper pipes, reactions of HAcAms with zero-valent iron (ZVI) and metallic copper (Cu) may play a role in determining their fate. Moreover, ZVI and/or Cu are potentially effective HAcAm treatment technologies in drinking water supply and storage systems. This study reports that ZVI alone reduces trichloroacetamide (TCAcAm) to sequentially form dichloroacetamide (DCAcAm) and then monochloroacetamide (MCAcAm), whereas Cu alone does not impact HAcAm concentrations. The addition of Cu to ZVI significantly improved the removal of HAcAms, relative to ZVI alone. TCAcAm and their reduction products (DCAcAm and MCAcAm) were all decreased to below detection limits at a molar ratio of ZVI/Cu of 1:1 after 24 h reaction (ZVI/TCAcAm = 0.18 M/5.30 μM). TCAcAm reduction increased with the decreasing pH from 8.0 to 5.0, but values from an integrated toxic risk assessment were minimised at pH 7.0, due to limited removal MCAcAm under weak acid conditions (pH = 5.0 and 6.0). Higher temperatures (40 °C) promoted the reductive dehalogenation of HAcAms. Bromine was preferentially removed over chlorine, thus brominated HAcAms were more easily reduced than chlorinated HAcAms by ZVI/Cu. Although tribromoacetamide was more easily reduced than TCAcAm during ZVI/Cu reduction, treatment of tribromoacetamide resulted in a higher integrated toxicity risk than TCAcAm, due to the formation of monobromoacetamide (MBAcAm). Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. The KnowRISK project: Tools and strategies for risk communication and learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Musacchio, Gemma; Amaral Ferreira, Mónica; Falsaperla, Susanna; Piangiamore, Giovanna Lucia; Pino, Nicola Alessandro; Solarino, Stefano; Crescimbene, Massimo; Eva, Elena; Reitano, Danilo; Þorvaldsdottir, Solveig; Sousa Silva, Delta; Rupakhety, Rajesh; Sousa Oliveira, Carlos

    2016-04-01

    Damage of non-structural elements of buildings (i.e. partitions, ceilings, cladding, electrical and mechanical systems and furniture) is known to cause injuries and human losses. Also it has a significant impact on earthquake resilience and is yet being worldwide underestimated. The project KnowRISK (Know your city, Reduce seISmic risK through non-structural elements) is financed by the European Commission to develop prevention measures that may reduce non-structural damage in urban areas. Pilot areas of the project are within the three European participating countries, namely Portugal, Iceland and Italy. They were chosen because they are prone to damage level 2 and 3 (EMS-98, European Macroseismic Scale) that typically affects non-structural elements. We will develop and test a risk communication strategy taking into account the needs of households and schools, putting into practice a portfolio of best practice to reduce the most common non-structural vulnerabilities. We will target our actions to different societal groups, considering their cultural background and social vulnerabilities, and implement a participatory approach that will promote engagement and interaction between the scientific community, practitioners and citizens to foster knowledge on everyone's own neighborhoods, resilience and vulnerability. A Practical Guide for citizens will highlight that low-cost actions can be implemented to increase safety of households, meant as being the places where the most vulnerable societal groups, including children and elderly people, spend much of their time. Since our actions towards communication will include education, we will define tools that allow a clear and direct understanding of elements exposed to risk. Schools will be one of our target societal groups and their central role played at the community level will ensure spreading and strengthening of the communication process. Schools are often located in old or re-adapted buildings, formerly used for

  14. The KnowRISK project: Tools and strategies to reduce non-structural damage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sousa Oliveira, Carlos; Lopes, Mário; Mota de Sá, Francisco; Amaral Ferreia, Mónica; Candeias, Paulo; Campos Costa, Alfredo; Rupakhety, Rajesh; Meroni, Fabrizio; Azzaro, Raffaele; D'Amico, Salvatore; Langer, Horst; Musacchio, Gemma; Sousa Silva, Delta; Falsaperla, Susanna; Scarfì, Luciano; Tusa, Giuseppina; Tuvé, Tiziana

    2016-04-01

    The project KnowRISK (Know your city, Reduce seISmic risK through non-structural elements) is financed by the European Commission to develop prevention measures that may reduce non-structural damage in urban areas. Pilot areas of the project are within the three European participating countries, namely Portugal, Iceland and Italy. Non-structural components of a building include all those components that are not part of the structural system, more specifically the architectural, mechanical, electrical, and plumbing systems, as well as furniture, fixtures, equipment, and contents. Windows, partitions, granite veneer, piping, ceilings, air conditioning ducts and equipment, elevators, computer and hospital equipment, file cabinets, and retail merchandise are all examples of non-structural components that are vulnerable to earthquake damage. We will use the experience gained during past earthquakes, which struck in particular Iceland, Italy and Portugal (Azores). Securing the non-structural elements improves the safety during an earthquake and saves lives. This paper aims at identifying non-structural seismic protection measures in the pilot areas and to develop a portfolio of good practices for the most common and serious non-structural vulnerabilities. This systematic identification and the portfolio will be achieved through a "cross-knowledge" strategy based on previous researches, evidence of non-structural damage in past earthquakes. Shake table tests of a group of non-structural elements will be performed. These tests will be filmed and, jointly with portfolio, will serve as didactic supporting tools to be used in workshops with building construction stakeholders and in risk communication activities. A Practical Guide for non-structural risk reduction will be specifically prepared for citizens on the basis of the outputs of the project, taking into account the local culture and needs of each participating country.

  15. Reduction of cancer risk by optimization of Computed Tomography head protocols: far eastern Cuban experience

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller Clemente, R.; Adame Brooks, D.; Lores Guevara, M.; Perez Diaz, M.; Arias Garlobo, M. L.; Ortega Rodriguez, O.; Nepite Haber, R.; Grinnan Hernandez, O.; Guillama Llosas, A.

    2015-01-01

    The cancer risk estimation constitutes one way for the evaluation of the public health, regarding computed tomography (CT) exposures. Starting from the hypothesis that the optimization of CT protocols would reduce significantly the added cancer risk, the purpose of this research was the application of optimization strategies regarding head CT protocols, in order to reduce the factors affecting the risk of induced cancer. The applied systemic approach included technological and human components, represented by quantitative physical factors. the volumetric kerma indexes, compared with respect to standard, optimized and reference values, were evaluated with multiple means comparison method. The added cancer risk resulted from the application of the methodology for biological effects evaluation, at low doses with low Linear Energy Transfer. Human observers in all scenarios evaluated the image quality. the reduced dose was significantly lower than for standard head protocols and reference levels, where: (1) for pediatric patients, by using an Automatic Exposure Control system, a reduction of 31% compared with standard protocol and ages range of 10-14, and (2) adults, using a Bilateral Filter for images obtained at low doses of 62% from those of standard head protocol. The risk reduction was higher than 25%. The systemic approach used allows the effective identification of factors involved on cancer risk related with exposures to CT. The combination of dose modulation and image restoration with Bilateral Filter, provide a significantly reduction of cancer risk, with acceptable diagnostic image quality. (Author)

  16. Phase-processing as a tool for speckle reduction in pulse-echo images

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Healey, AJ; Leeman, S; Forsberg, F

    1991-01-01

    . Traditional speckle reduction procedures regard speckle correction as a stochastic process and trade image smoothing (resolution loss) for speckle reduction. Recently, a new phase acknowledging technique has been proposed that is unique in its ability to correct for speckle interference with no image......Due to the coherent nature of conventional ultrasound medical imaging systems interference artefacts occur in pulse echo images. These artefacts are generically termed 'speckle'. The phenomenon may severely limit low contrast resolution with clinically relevant information being obscured...

  17. Human factors questionnaire as a tool for risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Santos, Isaac J.A.L.; Grecco, Claudio H.S.; Carvalho, Paulo V.R.; Mol, Antonio C.A.; Oliveira, Mauro V.; Augusto, Silas C.

    2009-01-01

    The human factors engineering (HFE) as a discipline, and as a process, seeks to discover and to apply knowledge about human capabilities and limitations to system and equipment design, ensuring that the system design, human tasks and work environment are compatible with the sensory, perceptual, cognitive and physical attributes of the personnel who operates systems and equipment. Risk significance considers the magnitude of the consequences (loss of life, material damage, environmental degradation) and the frequency of occurrence of a particular adverse event. The questionnaire design was based on the following definitions: the score and the classification of the nuclear safety risk. The principal benefit of applying an approach based on the risk significance in the development of the questionnaire is to ensure the identification and evaluation of the features of the projects, related to human factors, which affect the nuclear safety risk, the human actions and the safety of the nuclear plant systems. The human factors questionnaire developed in this study will provide valuable support for risk assessment, making possible the identification of design problems that can influence the evaluation of the nuclear safety risk. (author)

  18. MURMoT: Design and Application of Microbial Uranium Reduction Monitoring Tools

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pennell, Kurt [Tufts Univ., Medford, MA (United States)

    2014-12-31

    The overarching project goal of the MURMoT project was the design of tools to elucidate the presence, abundance, dynamics, spatial distribution, and activity of metal- and radionuclide-transforming bacteria. To accomplish these objectives, an integrated approach that combined nucleic acid-based tools, proteomic workflows, uranium isotope measurements, and U(IV) speciation and structure analyses using the Advanced Photon Source (APS) at Argonne National Laboratory was developed.

  19. MURMoT: Design and Application of Microbial Uranium Reduction Monitoring Tools

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pennell, Kurt

    2014-01-01

    The overarching project goal of the MURMoT project was the design of tools to elucidate the presence, abundance, dynamics, spatial distribution, and activity of metal- and radionuclide-transforming bacteria. To accomplish these objectives, an integrated approach that combined nucleic acid-based tools, proteomic workflows, uranium isotope measurements, and U(IV) speciation and structure analyses using the Advanced Photon Source (APS) at Argonne National Laboratory was developed.

  20. Blood Glucose Reduction by Diabetic Drugs with Minimal Hypoglycemia Risk for Cardiovascular Outcomes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Huang, Chi-Jung; Wang, Wei-Ting; Sung, Shih-Hsien

    2018-01-01

    of antidiabetic drugs with less hypoglycemia risk were comprehensively searched in MEDLINE, Embase, and the Cochrane Library up to January 27, 2018. Mixed-effects meta-regression analysis was conducted to explore the relationship between haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) reduction and the risk of major adverse...... concentration was 0.42% lower (median, 0.27-0.86%) for participants given antihyperglycemic agents than those given placebo. The meta-regression analysis demonstrated that HbA1c reduction was significantly associated with a decreased risk of MACE (β value, -0.39 to -0.55; P...-40%) for MACE. By contrast, the meta-regression analysis for trials using conventional agents failed to demonstrate a significant relationship between achieved HbA1c difference and MACE risk (P>0.74). CONCLUSIONS: Compared with placebo, newer T2D agents with less hypoglycemic hazard significantly reduced...

  1. A risk assessment tool for contaminated sites in low-permeability fractured media

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chambon, Julie Claire Claudia; Binning, Philip John; Jørgensen, Peter R.

    2011-01-01

    A risk assessment tool for contaminated sites in low-permeability fractured media is developed, based on simple transient and steady-state analytical solutions. The discrete fracture (DF) tool, which explicitly accounts for the transport along fractures, covers different source geometries...... and history (including secondary sources) and can be applied to a wide range of compounds. The tool successfully simulates published data from short duration column and field experiments. The use for risk assessment is illustrated by three typical risk assessment case studies, involving pesticides...

  2. Evaluation of an inpatient fall risk screening tool to identify the most critical fall risk factors in inpatients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hou, Wen-Hsuan; Kang, Chun-Mei; Ho, Mu-Hsing; Kuo, Jessie Ming-Chuan; Chen, Hsiao-Lien; Chang, Wen-Yin

    2017-03-01

    To evaluate the accuracy of the inpatient fall risk screening tool and to identify the most critical fall risk factors in inpatients. Variations exist in several screening tools applied in acute care hospitals for examining risk factors for falls and identifying high-risk inpatients. Secondary data analysis. A subset of inpatient data for the period from June 2011-June 2014 was extracted from the nursing information system and adverse event reporting system of an 818-bed teaching medical centre in Taipei. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics, receiver operating characteristic curve analysis and logistic regression analysis. During the study period, 205 fallers and 37,232 nonfallers were identified. The results revealed that the inpatient fall risk screening tool (cut-off point of ≥3) had a low sensitivity level (60%), satisfactory specificity (87%), a positive predictive value of 2·0% and a negative predictive value of 99%. The receiver operating characteristic curve analysis revealed an area under the curve of 0·805 (sensitivity, 71·8%; specificity, 78%). To increase the sensitivity values, the Youden index suggests at least 1·5 points to be the most suitable cut-off point for the inpatient fall risk screening tool. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed a considerably increased fall risk in patients with impaired balance and impaired elimination. The fall risk factor was also significantly associated with days of hospital stay and with admission to surgical wards. The findings can raise awareness about the two most critical risk factors for falls among future clinical nurses and other healthcare professionals and thus facilitate the development of fall prevention interventions. This study highlights the needs for redefining the cut-off points of the inpatient fall risk screening tool to effectively identify inpatients at a high risk of falls. Furthermore, inpatients with impaired balance and impaired elimination should be closely

  3. Prognostic factors in follicular lymphoma: new tools to personalize risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casulo, Carla

    2016-12-02

    Follicular lymphoma (FL) is the most common indolent lymphoma, and it has a long median overall survival (OS). However, the recent discovery of clinical and biological prognostic biomarkers in FL is shedding light on FL heterogeneity and the need for a precise and risk-stratified individual approach at diagnosis and relapse. Many FL patients who are asymptomatic with indolent disease can be vulnerable to the toxicity, emotional distress, and financial burden of overtreatment. Yet a subset of FL patients develop chemoresistance to standard chemoimmunotherapy, experience transformation to aggressive lymphoma and rapid progression, and represent the population most in need of novel therapies and curative approaches. Novel biomarkers that incorporate both clinical and genetic determinants of poor risk are being developed with the hope of identifying high-risk patients at diagnosis in order to offer biologically rational targeted therapies. © 2016 by The American Society of Hematology. All rights reserved.

  4. Screening for substance abuse risk in cancer patients using the Opioid Risk Tool and urine drug screen.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barclay, Joshua S; Owens, Justine E; Blackhall, Leslie J

    2014-07-01

    The use of opioids for management of cancer-related pain has increased significantly and has been associated with a substantial rise in rates of substance abuse and diversion. There is a paucity of data not only on the prevalence of substance abuse in cancer patients, but also for issues of drug use and diversion in family caregivers. This study aimed to evaluate the frequency of risk factors for substance abuse and diversion, and abnormal urine drug screens in cancer patients receiving palliative care. A retrospective chart review was performed for patients with cancer who were seen in the University of Virginia Palliative Care Clinic during the month of September 2012. We evaluated Opioid Risk Tool variables and total scores, insurance status, and urine drug screen results. Of the 114 cancer patients seen in September 2012, the mean Opioid Risk Tool score was 3.79, with 43% of patients defined as medium to high risk. Age (16-45 years old, 23%) and a personal history of alcohol (23%) or illicit drugs (21%) were the most common risk factors identified. We obtained a urine drug screen on 40% of patients, noting abnormal findings in 45.65%. Opioids are an effective treatment for cancer-related pain, yet substantial risk for substance abuse exits in the cancer population. Screening tools, such as the Opioid Risk Tool, should be used as part of a complete patient assessment to balance risk with appropriate relief of suffering.

  5. Reduction of risk level as one of the main challenges of development in covered karst regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Makhnatov Stanislav A.

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper describes the experience of application of the residual karst risk concept, and presents coefficients of karst risk level reduction for planning constructional karst-protection. Practical experience of design for karstified territories of Nizhny Novgorod region demonstrates that special research of the interaction between constructions and foundations is required. Numerous accidents can serve vivid examples proving the need. I2n this situation it is important to approach the issue of safety in a proper way, taking into account probable economic, environmental and social damage. The problem can be solved by introduction of the karst risk level parameter, which permits to take into consideration constructional characteristics of objects (design philosophy, service life, as well as conditions and mechanisms of interaction between the foundation and the construction (sinkholes, local subsidence, karst-suffosion deformations, etc.. The importance of risk reduction is highlighted by current Russian Federal laws. Depending on karst risk level adequate karst-protection should be performed. For building projects, reduction of karst risk to a permissible level (conventionally equal to 1 is one of the most important research challenges of the karstified territories development, and its solution permits to plan appropriate karst protection measures.

  6. Introduction to cost-effectiveness analysis of risk reduction measures in energy systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1986-07-01

    The aim of this report is to introduce readers to methods of cost-effectiveness analysis and their application in risk reduction, especially in connection with the energy-producing industries. The background to the assessment of risk and the problems in estimating it quantitatively are outlined. The methodology of cost-effectiveness analysis is then described, particular attention being given to the way in which results are derived and the overall use that can be made of them. This is followed by a discussion of quantitative applications and an outline of the methods that may be used to derive estimates both of risk and the cost of reducing it. The use of cost-effectiveness analysis is illustrated in an appendix, which gives as a worked example a case study on the reduction of public risk associated with radioactive releases during normal operation of a PWR. After drawing some general conclusions the report recommends that such analyses should normally be used as an aid to risk management whenever several alternative risk reduction measures are under consideration

  7. Historic Landslide Data Combined with Sentinel Satellite Data to Improve Modelling for Disaster Risk Reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bye, B. L.; Kontoes, C.; Catarino, N.; De Lathouwer, B.; Concalves, P.; Meyer-Arnek, J.; Mueller, A.; Kraft, C.; Grosso, N.; Goor, E.; Voidrot, M. F.; Trypitsidis, A.

    2017-12-01

    Landslides are geohazards potentially resulting in disasters. Landslides both vary enormously in their distribution in space and time. The surface deformation varies considerably from one type of instability to another. Individual ground instabilities may have a common trigger (extreme rainfall, earthquake), and therefore occur alongside many equivalent occurrences over a large area. This means that they can have a significant regional impact demanding national and international disaster risk reduction strategies. Regional impacts require collaboration across boarders as reflected in The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (2015-2030). The data demands related to the SDGs are unprecedented, another factor that will require coordinated efforts at the global, regional and national levels. Data of good quality are vital for governments, international organizations, civil society, the private sector and the general public in order to make informed decisions, included for disaster risk reduction. The NextGEOSS project evolves the European vision of a user driven GEOSS data exploitation for innovation and business, relying on 3 main pillars; engaging communities of practice, delivering technological advancements, and advocating the use of GEOSS. These 3 pillars support the creation and deployment of Earth observation based innovative research activities and commercial services. In this presentation we will explain how one of the 10 NextGEOSS pilots, Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR), plan to provide an enhanced multi-hazard risk assessment framework based on statistical analysis of long time series of data. Landslide events monitoring and landslides susceptibility estimation will be emphazised. Workflows will be based on models developed in the context of the Copernicus Emergency Management Service. Data envisaged to be used are: Radar SAR data; Yearly ground deformation/velocities; Historic landslide inventory; data related to topographic, geological, hydrological

  8. An office-based approach to emotional and behavioral risk factor reduction for cardiovascular disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hochman, Daniel M; Feinstein, Robert E; Stauter, Erinn C

    2013-01-01

    There are many psychological risk factors for cardiovascular disease, and the ability to reduce mortality depends on an ability to integrate care of these risk factors with traditional Framingham cardiovascular risk and use them both in routine practice. The aim of this article is to provide an update of all the major emotional and behavioral cardiovascular risk factors along with a practical treatment model for implementation. First, we provide a review of major emotional and behavioral cardiovascular risk factors, the associated primary effect, and proposed mechanism of action. Second, we provide an office-based approach to cardiovascular risk factor reduction and methods of reducing barriers to implementation, called Prevention Oriented Primary Care-Abridged. The approach integrates several forms of detection, assessment using the 3As (ask, assess, assist), and Stages of Change approaches, and subsequent efficient and targeted treatment with either Motivational Interviewing or further office intervention. A case example is provided to help illustrate this process.

  9. 41 CFR 102-80.55 - Are Federal agencies responsible for managing the execution of risk reduction projects?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... Management Risks and Risk Reduction Strategies § 102-80.55 Are Federal agencies responsible for managing the... 41 Public Contracts and Property Management 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Are Federal agencies responsible for managing the execution of risk reduction projects? 102-80.55 Section 102-80.55 Public...

  10. Climate risk screening tools and their application: A guide to the guidance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Traerup, S.; Olhoff, A.

    2011-07-01

    Climate risk screening is an integral part of efforts to ascertain current and future vulnerabilities and risks related to climate change. It is a prerequisite for identifying and designing adaptation measures, and an important element in the process of integrating, or mainstreaming, climate change adaptation into development project, planning and policy processes. There is an increasing demand and attention among national stakeholders in developing countries to take into account potential implications of climate variability and change for planning and prioritizing of development strategies and activities. Subsequently, there is a need for user friendly guidance on climate risk screening tools and their potentials for application that targets developing country stakeholders. This need is amplified by the sheer volume of climate change mainstreaming guidance documents and risk screening and assessment tools available and currently under development. Against this background, this paper sets out to provide potential users in developing countries, including project and programme developers and managers, with an informational entry point to climate risk screening tools. The emphasis in this report is on providing: 1) An overview of available climate risk screening and assessment tools along with indications of the tools available and relevant for specific purposes and contexts (Section 3). 2) Examples of application of climate risk screening and assessment tools along with links to further information (Section 4). Before turning to the respective sections on available climate risk screening tools and examples of their application, a delimitation of the tools included in this paper is included in Section 2. This section also provides a brief overview of how climate screening and related tools fit into decision making steps at various planning and decision making levels in conjunction with an outline of overall considerations to make when choosing a tool. The paper is

  11. Stress Testing as a Tool of Bank Risk Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonyuk Oksana I.

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The goal of the article is development of theoretical, methodological and practical recommendations on the use of stress testing by Ukrainian commercial banks. Stress testing is defined as a part of bank risk management on the basis of scientific studies of domestic and foreign scientists. The article marks the essence of the bank stress testing and identifies its role in the structure of banks’ risk management in Ukraine. It considers goals of conducting stress testing in banking institutions. It identifies main aspects and specific features of conducting stress testing of bank risks. It characterises main advantages and shortcomings of use of stress testing in the modern bank risk management. It generalises the world and European approaches to the methods of conducting stress testing in commercial banks in comparison with the Ukrainian methodical recommendations. It shows that results of stress testing have practical value, since they help to preliminary assess influence of potentially negative events upon the state of the loan portfolio of the bank and make relevant managerial decisions.

  12. CoCo design as a risk preventive tool

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Perotti, E.; Flannery, M.

    2011-01-01

    Contingent Convertible (CoCo) bonds have been suggested as a way to ensure that banks keep aside enough capital to help them through financial crises. This column proposes a market-triggered CoCo buffer to maintain risk incentives during periods of high leverage. It argues that this will also

  13. Choice of corporate risk management tools under moral hazard

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Bena, Jan

    -, č. 298 (2006), s. 1-43 ISSN 1211-3298 R&D Projects: GA MŠk LC542 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70850503 Keywords : risk management * corporate insurance * moral hazard Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://www.cerge-ei.cz/pdf/wp/Wp298.pdf

  14. Choice of corporate risk management tools under moral hazard

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Bena, Jan

    -, č. 566 (2006), s. 1-41 R&D Projects: GA MŠk LC542 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70850503 Keywords : risk management * corporate insurance * moral hazard Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://fmg.lse.ac.uk/publications/searchdetail.php?pubid=1&wsid=1&wpdid=800

  15. Prognostic risk estimates of patients with multiple sclerosis and their physicians: comparison to an online analytical risk counseling tool.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christoph Heesen

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Prognostic counseling in multiple sclerosis (MS is difficult because of the high variability of disease progression. Simultaneously, patients and physicians are increasingly confronted with making treatment decisions at an early stage, which requires taking individual prognoses into account to strike a good balance between benefits and harms of treatments. It is therefore important to understand how patients and physicians estimate prognostic risk, and whether and how these estimates can be improved. An online analytical processing (OLAP tool based on pooled data from placebo cohorts of clinical trials offers short-term prognostic estimates that can be used for individual risk counseling. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to clarify if personalized prognostic information as presented by the OLAP tool is considered useful and meaningful by patients. Furthermore, we used the OLAP tool to evaluate patients' and physicians' risk estimates. Within this evaluation process we assessed short-time prognostic risk estimates of patients with MS (final n = 110 and their physicians (n = 6 and compared them with the estimates of OLAP. RESULTS: Patients rated the OLAP tool as understandable and acceptable, but to be only of moderate interest. It turned out that patients, physicians, and the OLAP tool ranked patients similarly regarding their risk of disease progression. Both patients' and physicians' estimates correlated most strongly with those disease covariates that the OLAP tool's estimates also correlated with most strongly. Exposure to the OLAP tool did not change patients' risk estimates. CONCLUSION: While the OLAP tool was rated understandable and acceptable, it was only of modest interest and did not change patients' prognostic estimates. The results suggest, however, that patients had some idea regarding their prognosis and which factors were most important in this regard. Future work with OLAP should assess long-term prognostic

  16. Prognostic risk estimates of patients with multiple sclerosis and their physicians: comparison to an online analytical risk counseling tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heesen, Christoph; Gaissmaier, Wolfgang; Nguyen, Franziska; Stellmann, Jan-Patrick; Kasper, Jürgen; Köpke, Sascha; Lederer, Christian; Neuhaus, Anneke; Daumer, Martin

    2013-01-01

    Prognostic counseling in multiple sclerosis (MS) is difficult because of the high variability of disease progression. Simultaneously, patients and physicians are increasingly confronted with making treatment decisions at an early stage, which requires taking individual prognoses into account to strike a good balance between benefits and harms of treatments. It is therefore important to understand how patients and physicians estimate prognostic risk, and whether and how these estimates can be improved. An online analytical processing (OLAP) tool based on pooled data from placebo cohorts of clinical trials offers short-term prognostic estimates that can be used for individual risk counseling. The aim of this study was to clarify if personalized prognostic information as presented by the OLAP tool is considered useful and meaningful by patients. Furthermore, we used the OLAP tool to evaluate patients' and physicians' risk estimates. Within this evaluation process we assessed short-time prognostic risk estimates of patients with MS (final n = 110) and their physicians (n = 6) and compared them with the estimates of OLAP. Patients rated the OLAP tool as understandable and acceptable, but to be only of moderate interest. It turned out that patients, physicians, and the OLAP tool ranked patients similarly regarding their risk of disease progression. Both patients' and physicians' estimates correlated most strongly with those disease covariates that the OLAP tool's estimates also correlated with most strongly. Exposure to the OLAP tool did not change patients' risk estimates. While the OLAP tool was rated understandable and acceptable, it was only of modest interest and did not change patients' prognostic estimates. The results suggest, however, that patients had some idea regarding their prognosis and which factors were most important in this regard. Future work with OLAP should assess long-term prognostic estimates and clarify its usefulness for patients and physicians

  17. Effectiveness of a fall-risk reduction programme for inpatient rehabilitation after stroke.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goljar, Nika; Globokar, Daniel; Puzić, Nataša; Kopitar, Natalija; Vrabič, Maja; Ivanovski, Matic; Vidmar, Gaj

    2016-09-01

    To evaluate effectiveness of fall-risk-assessment-based fall prevention for stroke rehabilitation inpatients. A consecutive series of 232 patients admitted for the first time to a subacute stroke-rehabilitation ward during 2010-2011 was studied in detail. The Assessment Sheet for Fall Prediction in Stroke Inpatients (ASFPSI by Nakagawa et al.) was used to assess fall-risk upon admission. Association of ASFPSI score and patient characteristics with actual falls was statistically tested. Yearly incidence of falls per 1000 hospital days (HD) was retrospectively audited for the 2006-2014 period to evaluate effectiveness of fall-risk reduction measures. The observed incidence of falls over the detailed-study-period was 3.0/1000 HD; 39% of the fallers fell during the first week after admission. ASFPSI score was not significantly associated with falls. Longer hospital stay, left body-side affected and non-extreme FIM score (55-101) were associated with higher odds of fall. Introduction of fall-risk reduction measures followed by compulsory fall-risk assessment lead to incidence of falls dropping from 7.1/1000 HD in 2006 to 2.8/1000 HD in 2011 and remaining at that level until 2014. The fall-risk-assessment-based measures appear to have led to decreasing falls risk among post-stroke rehabilitation inpatients classified as being at high risk of falls. The fall prevention programme as a whole was successful. Patients with non-extreme level of functional independence should receive enhanced fall prevention. Implications for Rehabilitation Recognising the fall risk upon the patient's admission is essential for preventing falls in rehabilitation wards. Assessing the fall risk is a team tasks and combines information from various sources. Assessing fall risk in stroke patients using the assessment sheet by Nakagawa et al. immediately upon admission systematically draws attention to the risk of falls in each individual patient.

  18. What if Dutch investors started worrying about flood risk? Implications for disaster risk reduction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Husby, T.G.; Mechler, R.; Jongman, B.

    2016-01-01

    Increasingly, roles and responsibilities of the public sector in flood risk management are receiving attention in research and policy. Part of the debate suggests that allocating risk to the private sector increases efficiency as it promotes individual adaptation, thereby reducing the impact if a

  19. Risk reduction in road and rail LPG transportation bij passive fire protection

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Molag e.a., M. (Menso)

    2009-01-01

    The potential reduction of risk in LPG (Liquified Petroleum Gas) road transport due to the adoption of passive fire protectionswas investigated. Experimental data available for small scale vessels fully engulfed by a fire were extended to real scale road and rail tankers through a finite elements

  20. Disaster risk reduction capacity assessment for precarious settlements in Guatemala City.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miles, Scott B; Green, Rebekah A; Svekla, Walter

    2012-07-01

    This study presents findings of an institutional capacity analysis of urban disaster risk reduction for informal settlements in the Guatemala Metropolitan Region. It uses a resource access perspective of vulnerability, actor-network theory, and qualitative data collection. The analysis reveals that there is interest in disaster risk reduction for the informal settlements; however, there is little in the way of direct financial or oversight relationships between informal settlement residents and all other actors. Respondents observed that informal settlements would probably remain inhabited; thus, there is a need for disaster risk reduction within these settlements. Disaster risk reduction capacity for informal settlements exists and can be further leveraged, as long as steps are taken to ensure appropriate access to and control of resources and oversight. Further, the nascent institutional arrangements should be strengthened through increased communication and coordination between actors, a decentralization of oversight and financial relationships, and mediation of identified resource conflicts. © 2012 The Author(s). Journal compilation © Overseas Development Institute, 2012.

  1. Children with Disabilities in Disability-Inclusive Disaster Risk Reduction: Focussing on School Settings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ronoh, Steve; Gaillard, J. C.; Marlowe, Jay

    2017-01-01

    Every year, worldwide, disasters affect approximately seven million children with disabilities, highlighting their potential vulnerability. Although there is a growing move internationally to promote the rights of children with disabilities, they still receive little attention from disaster risk reduction (DRR) researchers and policy makers. They…

  2. Combining Primary Prevention and Risk Reduction Approaches in Sexual Assault Protection Programming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menning, Chadwick; Holtzman, Mellisa

    2015-01-01

    Objective: The object of this study is to extend prior evaluations of Elemental, a sexual assault protection program that combines primary prevention and risk reduction strategies within a single program. Participants and Methods: During 2012 and 2013, program group and control group students completed pretest, posttest, and 6-week and 6-month…

  3. Pure meat – public perceptions of risk reduction strategies in meat production

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Korzen, Sara Marie; Sandøe, Peter; Lassen, Jesper

    2011-01-01

    generally have an aversion to risk reduction strategies. Some variation was found, however, in the rejection of the strategies. Thus, more acceptable strategies are characterised by a low degree of technological interference, and by being close to the consumer’s experience in everyday life and/or familiar...

  4. Ready for the Storm: Education for Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kagawa, Fumiyo; Selby, David

    2012-01-01

    Incidences of disaster and climate change impacts are rising globally. Disaster risk reduction and climate change education are two educational responses to present and anticipated increases in the severity and frequency of hazards. They share significant complementarities and potential synergies, the latter as yet largely unexploited. Three…

  5. Education for disaster risk reduction : linking theory with practice in Ghana´s basic schools

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Apronti, Priscilla; Saito, Osamu; Otsuki, K.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/306279258; Kranjac-Berisavljevic, Gordana

    2015-01-01

    Current understanding of disaster risk reduction (DRR) concurs that, when provided the right education, children have the potential to reduce their own vulnerability and the vulnerability of others in their community. What, then, comprises the right education for DRR? Research has established the

  6. Evaluation of a Peer-Led Drug Abuse Risk Reduction Project for Runaway/Homeless Youths.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fors, Stuart W.; Jarvis, Sara

    1995-01-01

    Evaluates the Drug Prevention in Youth risk reduction program that was implemented in shelters for runaway/homeless youths in the southeastern United States. An evaluation strategy was developed allowing for comparisons between peer-led, adult-led and nonintervention groups. Well-trained and motivated peer/near-peer leaders made particularly…

  7. Environmental Assessment: Bird Strike Risk Reduction at Laughlin Air Force Base, Texas

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-01-01

    mglkg in rats, 291 - 609 mglkg in mice, > 1000 mglkg in sheep , > 100 mglkg in dogs and > 1000 mglkg in rabbits (Pesticide Residues in Food-1987... vineyards . Wildl. Soc. Bull. 21:47-51. LAFB Strike Risk Reduction EA - 39 Gaines, T.B. 1969. Acute toxicity of pesticides. Toxicol. Appl. Pharmacol

  8. Risk reduction in road and rail LPG transportation by passive fire protection

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Paltrinieri, N.; Landucci, G.; Molag, M.; Bonvicini, S.; Spadoni, G.; Cozzani, V.

    2009-01-01

    The potential reduction of risk in LPG (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) road transport due to the adoption of passive fire protections was investigated. Experimental data available for small scale vessels fully engulfed by a fire were extended to real scale road and rail tankers through a finite elements

  9. Valuing Mortality Risk Reductions for Environmental Policy: A White Paper (1999)

    Science.gov (United States)

    This white paper addresses current and recent U.S. EPA practices regarding the valuation of mortality risk reductions, focusing especially on empirical estimates of the “value of a statistical life” (VSL) from stated preference and hedonic wage studies.

  10. Communicating risk using absolute risk reduction or prolongation of life formats

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harmsen, Charlotte Gry; Kristiansen, Ivar Sønbø; Larsen, Pia Veldt

    2014-01-01

    . The COMRADE questionnaire was used to measure patients' confidence in their decision and satisfaction with the risk communication. RESULTS: Of the 240 patients included for analyses, 112 were allocated to POL information and 128 to ARR. Patients redeeming a statin prescription totalled six (5.4%) when...... informed using POL, and 32 (25.0%) when using ARR. The level of confidence in decision and satisfaction with risk communication did not differ between the risk formats. CONCLUSION: Patients redeemed statin prescriptions less often when their GP communicated treatment effectiveness using POL compared......BACKGROUND: It is important that patients are well-informed about risks and benefits of therapies to help them decide whether to accept medical therapy. Different numerical formats can be used in risk communication but It remains unclear how the different formats affect decisions made by real...

  11. Reduction of potassium content of green bean pods and chard by culinary processing. Tools for chronic kidney disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez-Pineda, Montserrat; Yagüe-Ruiz, Cristina; Caverni-Muñoz, Alberto; Vercet-Tormo, Antonio

    2016-01-01

    In order to prevent a possible hyperkalemia, chronic renal patients, especially in advanced stages, must follow a low potassium diet. So dietary guidelines for chronic kidney disease recommend limiting the consumption of many vegetables, as well as to apply laborious culinary techniques to maximize the reduction of potassium. The aim of this work is to analyze potassium content from several vegetable, fresh products, frozen and preserved, as well as check and compare the effectiveness in potassium reduction of different culinary processes, some of them recommended in dietary guidelines such as soaking or double cooking. Sample potassium content was analyzed by triplicate using flamephotometry. The results showed significant reductions in potassium content in all culinary processes studied. The degree of loss varied depending on the type of vegetable and processing applied. Frozen products achieved greater reductions than the fresh ones, obtaining in some cases losses greater than 90%. In addition, it was observed how in many cases the single application of a normal cooking reached potassium reductions to acceptable levels for its inclusion in renal patient diet. The results shown in this study are very positive because they provide tools for professionals who deal with this kind of patients. They allow them to adapt more easily to the needs and preferences of their patients and increase dietary variety. Copyright © 2016 Sociedad Española de Nefrología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  12. A lower limb assessment tool for athletes at risk of developing patellar tendinopathy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mann, Kerry J; Edwards, Suzi; Drinkwater, Eric J; Bird, Stephen P

    2013-03-01

    Patellar tendon abnormality (PTA) on diagnostic imaging is part of the diagnostic criteria for patellar tendinopathy. PTA and altered landing strategies are primary risk factors that increase the likelihood of asymptomatic athletes developing patellar tendinopathy. Therefore, the aim of this study was to examine the risk factors that are predictors of the presence and severity of a PTA in junior pre-elite athletes. Ten junior pre-elite male basketball athletes with a PTA were matched with 10 athletes with normal patellar tendons. Participants had patellar tendon morphology, Victorian Institute of Sport Assessment (VISA) score, body composition, lower limb flexibility, and maximum vertical jump height measured before performing five successful stop-jump tasks. During each stop-jump task, both two-dimensional and three-dimensional kinematics and ground reaction forces were recorded. Multiple regression analyses were used to identify factors for estimating PTA presence and severity, and discriminate analysis was used to classify PTA presence. Sixty-eight percent of variance for presence of a PTA was accounted for by hip joint range of motion (ROM) and knee joint angle at initial foot-ground contact (IC) during stop-jump task and quadriceps flexibility, whereas hip joint ROM during stop-jump task and VISA score accounted for 62% of variance for PTA severity. Prediction of the presence of a PTA was achieved with 95% accuracy and 95% cross-validation. An easily implemented, reliable, and valid movement screening tool composed of three criteria enables coaches and/or clinicians to predict the presence and severity of a PTA in asymptomatic athletes. This enables identification of asymptomatic athletes at higher risk of developing patellar tendinopathy, which allows the development of effective preventative measures to aid in the reduction of patellar tendinopathy injury prevalence.

  13. Tools for assessing fall risk in the elderly: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Seong-Hi

    2018-01-01

    The prevention of falls among the elderly is arguably one of the most important public health issues in today's aging society. The aim of this study was to assess which tools best predict the risk of falls in the elderly. Electronic searches were performed using Medline, EMBASE, the Cochrane Library, CINAHL, etc., using the following keywords: "fall risk assessment", "elderly fall screening", and "elderly mobility scale". The QUADAS-2 was applied to assess the internal validity of the diagnostic studies. Selected studies were meta-analyzed with MetaDisc 1.4. A total of 33 studies were eligible out of the 2,321 studies retrieved from selected databases. Twenty-six assessment tools for fall risk were used in the selected articles, and they tended to vary based on the setting. The fall risk assessment tools currently used for the elderly did not show sufficiently high predictive validity for differentiating high and low fall risks. The Berg Balance scale and Mobility Interaction Fall chart showed stable and high specificity, while the Downton Fall Risk Index, Hendrich II Fall Risk Model, St. Thomas's Risk Assessment Tool in Falling elderly inpatients, Timed Up and Go test, and Tinetti Balance scale showed the opposite results. We concluded that rather than a single measure, two assessment tools used together would better evaluate the characteristics of falls by the elderly that can occur due to a multitude of factors and maximize the advantages of each for predicting the occurrence of falls.

  14. Is there evidence showing that salt intake reduction reduces cardiovascular morbidity and mortality risk?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando Lanas

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available A recent systematic review of Cochrane collaboration about the effect of reducing dietary salt concluded that “there is still insufficient power to exclude clinically important effects of reduced dietary salt on mortality or cardiovascular morbidity in normotensive or hypertensive populations”. This conclusion has generated an important debate, because the estimation that salt reduction can prevent 24% of strokes and 18% of myocardial infarctions has decided the health authorities of several nations to implement salt consumption reduction programs. The review of ecological studies and clinical trials allow to conclude that a reduction in salt consumption reduces blood pressure and methodological well conducted cohort studies has shown that cardiovascular events risk decreases progressively with lower levels of blood pressure. Combining this two finding we can assume that population should benefice from a decrease on salt consumption although there are no studies that shown a reduction in cardiovascular events in population with high sodium intake when dietary salt is reduced.

  15. The role of service learning in teaching and research for disaster-risk reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suckale, J.; Saiyed, Z.; Alvisyahrin, T.; Hilley, G. E.; Muhari, A.; Zoback, M. L. C.; Truebe, S.

    2016-12-01

    An important motivation for natural-hazards research is to reduce threats posed by natural disasters to at-risk communities. Yet, we rarely teach students how research may be used to construct implementable solutions that reduce disaster risk. The goal of this contribution is to evaluate the potential of service learning to impart students with both the scientific background and the skills necessary to navigate real-world constraints of disaster risk reduction. We present results from a service-learning class taught at Stanford in the Winter quarter of 2016 in collaboration with the Indonesian Ministry of Marine Affairs and Fisheries and Syiah Kuala University, Banda Aceh. The main deliverable of the class was a final project in which students developed a specific idea of how to contribute to tsunami-risk reduction in Indonesia. A common critique of the service-learning approach posits that it may implicitly embed social and political perspectives within risk-reduction strategies that may be inappropriate within a particular culture. We attempted to avoid this problem using three strategies: First, we paired students from Stanford with students at Syiah Kuala University, Banda Aceh, to facilitate a close dialogue. Second, the Ministry of Marine Affairs and Fisheries provided a list of current risk-reduction strategies without requiring students to contribute to one specific project to minimally precondition project suggestions. Third, our community partners provided ongoing feedback on the scope and feasibility of the proposed projects and students were assessed based on their ability to integrate the feedback. Preliminary results from our class suggest significant promise for a service-learning approach to teaching disaster-risk reduction. There was substantial student interest in service learning, particularly among undergraduates. Pre-and post-assessment surveys showed that over 75% of students adjusted previous notions about disaster-risk reduction during the

  16. Investigating obesity risk-reduction behaviours and psychosocial factors in Chinese Americans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liou, Doreen; Bauer, Kathleen; Bai, Yeon

    2014-11-01

    The purpose of this research was to examine the attitudes, beliefs and behaviours related to obesity risk reduction in Chinese Americans. A questionnaire was administered to a convenience sample of 300 US-born and foreign-born Chinese Americans residing in the New York metropolitan area, ranging from 18 to 40 years of age. Obesity risk reduction behaviours and psychosocial variables derived from the Theory of Planned Behaviour and Health Belief Model were measured. Acculturation was assessed using a modified Suinn-Lew Asian Self-Identity Acculturation Scale. Frequency distributions were delineated and stepwise regression analyses were analysed for different acculturation groups. 65% of the respondents were female and the mean age of the sample was 26 years. Respondents indicated the most commonly practised behaviour to be eating home-cooked meals instead of restaurant-prepared foods. Perceived barriers to adopting obesity risk-reduction behaviours included convenience of consuming fast foods, cost, lack of time to prepare home-cooked meals, and the physical environment of unhealthy foods. In predicting intention to perform obesity risk-reduction behaviours, attitude was significant for 'western-identified' individuals. In 'Asian-identified' individuals, perceived behavioural control, self-efficacy and perceived benefits were salient. Nutrition educators working with Chinese Americans need to address self-efficacy in preparing plant-based, home-cooked meals and making healthy choices at fast-food restaurants with portion control. Concrete and perceived barriers such as lack of time and convenience need to be addressed in nutrition education interventions. Educators need to identify new channels and media outlets to disseminate practical, easy-to-implement behaviours for obesity risk reduction that are socially acceptable. © Royal Society for Public Health 2013.

  17. PORTFOLIO INSURANCE INVESTMENT STRATEGIES: A RISK-MANAGEMENT TOOL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elma Agic-Sabeta

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Unsystemic risks in financial markets may be reduced through diversification. Systemic risks relate to the overall economy, cannot be influenced by a single company, and require special attention. Empirical research on return distributions in the long-term shows that investing under the assumption of normal distribution of returns may be dangerous. The main objectives of this article are to describe portfolio insurance strategies and investigate their advantages and disadvantages. Furthermore, their use in financial markets in both developed and emerging markets is explored, with special consideration placed on southeast European markets. Theoretical models are reviewed, including recent research articles in the field. The results are analyzed, summarized, and presented in the form of tables and graphs. The main finding of the article is identification of strategies that could be used in southeast Europe. It concludes that implementation of portfolio insurance strategies by asset managers may reduce financial risks in southeast European markets if implementation is done professionally and, simultaneously, it is monitored during the entire investment horizon.

  18. Risk reduction using DDP (Defect Detection and Prevention): Software support and software applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feather, M. S.

    2001-01-01

    Risk assessment and mitigation is the focus of the Defect Detection and Prevention (DDP) process, which has been applied to spacecraft technology assessments and planning, both hardware and software. DDP's major elements and their relevance to core requirement engineering concerns are summarized. The accompanying research demonstration illustrates DDP's tool support, and further customizations for application to software.

  19. Synergising Public Health Concepts with the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction: A Conceptual Glossary.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phibbs, Suzanne; Kenney, Christine; Severinsen, Christina; Mitchell, Jon; Hughes, Roger

    2016-12-14

    The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (2015) is a global strategy for addressing disaster risk and resilience that has been ratified by member countries of the United Nations. Its guiding principles emphasise building resilience through inter-sectoral collaboration, as well as partnerships that facilitate community empowerment and address underlying risk factors. Both public health and the emergency management sector face similar challenges related to developing and implementing strategies that involve structural change, facilitating community resilience and addressing individual risk factors. Familiarity with public health principles enables an understanding of the holistic approach to risk reduction that is outlined within the Sendai Framework. We present seven concepts that resonate with contemporary public health practice, namely: the social determinants of health; inequality and inequity; the inverse care law; community-based and community development approaches; hard to reach communities and services; the prevention paradox; and the inverse prevention law. These ideas from public health provide a useful conceptual base for the "new" agenda in disaster risk management that underpins the 2015 Sendai Framework. The relevance of these ideas to disaster risk management and research is illustrated through drawing on the Sendai Framework, disaster literature and exemplars from the 2010-2011 earthquakes in Canterbury, New Zealand.

  20. Synergising Public Health Concepts with the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction: A Conceptual Glossary

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suzanne Phibbs

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (2015 is a global strategy for addressing disaster risk and resilience that has been ratified by member countries of the United Nations. Its guiding principles emphasise building resilience through inter-sectoral collaboration, as well as partnerships that facilitate community empowerment and address underlying risk factors. Both public health and the emergency management sector face similar challenges related to developing and implementing strategies that involve structural change, facilitating community resilience and addressing individual risk factors. Familiarity with public health principles enables an understanding of the holistic approach to risk reduction that is outlined within the Sendai Framework. We present seven concepts that resonate with contemporary public health practice, namely: the social determinants of health; inequality and inequity; the inverse care law; community-based and community development approaches; hard to reach communities and services; the prevention paradox; and the inverse prevention law. These ideas from public health provide a useful conceptual base for the ”new” agenda in disaster risk management that underpins the 2015 Sendai Framework. The relevance of these ideas to disaster risk management and research is illustrated through drawing on the Sendai Framework, disaster literature and exemplars from the 2010–2011 earthquakes in Canterbury, New Zealand.

  1. Risk of hospital admission for COPD following smoking cessation and reduction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Godtfredsen, N S; Vestbo, J; Osler, M

    2002-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Little is known about the effects of changes in smoking habits on the subsequent risk of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between smoking cessation and reduction and admission to hospital for COPD in a general...... by at least 50% between the two initial examinations without quitting and smokers who stopped smoking during this time were compared with continuous heavy smokers using a Cox proportional hazards model. RESULTS: During the follow up period 1,260 subjects (741 men and 519 women) were admitted to hospital...... for COPD. After multivariate adjustment, quitting smoking was associated with a significant reduction in the risk of hospital admission. The relative hazard (HR) was 0.57 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.33 to 0.99). Those who reduced smoking did not show a significantly lower risk of hospitalisation than...

  2. The effectiveness of coral reefs for coastal hazard risk reduction and adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrario, Filippo; Beck, Michael W.; Storlazzi, Curt D.; Micheli, Fiorenza; Shepard, Christine C.; Airoldi, Laura

    2014-01-01

    The world’s coastal zones are experiencing rapid development and an increase in storms and flooding. These hazards put coastal communities at heightened risk, which may increase with habitat loss. Here we analyse globally the role and cost effectiveness of coral reefs in risk reduction. Meta-analyses reveal that coral reefs provide substantial protection against natural hazards by reducing wave energy by an average of 97%. Reef crests alone dissipate most of this energy (86%). There are 100 million or more people who may receive risk reduction benefits from reefs or bear hazard mitigation and adaptation costs if reefs are degraded. We show that coral reefs can provide comparable wave attenuation benefits to artificial defences such as breakwaters, and reef defences can be enhanced cost effectively. Reefs face growing threats yet there is opportunity to guide adaptation and hazard mitigation investments towards reef restoration to strengthen this first line of coastal defence.

  3. Water Distribution System Risk Tool for Investment Planning (WaterRF Report 4332)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Product Description/Abstract The product consists of the Pipe Risk Screening Tool (PRST), and a report on the development and use of the tool. The PRST is a software-based screening aid to identify and rank candidate pipes for actions that range from active monitoring (including...

  4. Comparison of seven fall risk assessment tools in community-dwelling Korean older women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Taekyoung; Xiong, Shuping

    2017-03-01

    This study aimed to compare seven widely used fall risk assessment tools in terms of validity and practicality, and to provide a guideline for choosing appropriate fall risk assessment tools for elderly Koreans. Sixty community-dwelling Korean older women (30 fallers and 30 matched non-fallers) were evaluated. Performance measures of all tools were compared between the faller and non-faller groups through two sample t-tests. Receiver Operating Characteristic curves were generated with odds ratios for discriminant analysis. Results showed that four tools had significant discriminative power, and the shortened version of Falls Efficacy Scale (SFES) showed excellent discriminant validity, followed by Berg Balance Scale (BBS) with acceptable discriminant validity. The Mini Balance Evaluation System Test and Timed Up and Go, however, had limited discriminant validities. In terms of practicality, SFES was also excellent. These findings suggest that SFES is the most suitable tool for assessing the fall risks of community-dwelling Korean older women, followed by BBS. Practitioner Summary: There is no general guideline on which fall risk assessment tools are suitable for community-dwelling Korean older women. This study compared seven widely used assessment tools in terms of validity and practicality. Results suggested that the short Falls Efficacy Scale is the most suitable tool, followed by Berg Balance Scale.

  5. Risk analysis tools for force protection and infrastructure/asset protection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jaeger, C.D.; Duggan, R.A.; Paulus, W.K.

    1998-01-01

    The Security Systems and Technology Center at Sandia National Laboratories has for many years been involved in the development and use of vulnerability assessment and risk analysis tools. In particular, two of these tools, ASSESS and JTS, have been used extensively for Department of Energy facilities. Increasingly, Sandia has been called upon to evaluate critical assets and infrastructures, support DoD force protection activities and assist in the protection of facilities from terrorist attacks using weapons of mass destruction. Sandia is involved in many different activities related to security and force protection and is expanding its capabilities by developing new risk analysis tools to support a variety of users. One tool, in the very early stages of development, is EnSURE, Engineered Surety Using the Risk Equation. EnSURE addresses all of the risk equation and integrates the many components into a single, tool-supported process to help determine the most cost-effective ways to reduce risk. This paper will briefly discuss some of these risk analysis tools within the EnSURE framework

  6. A qualitative descriptive study of risk reduction for coronary disease among the Hong Kong Chinese.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, Choi Wan; Lopez, Violeta

    2014-01-01

    Achieving optimal control and reduction in coronary heart disease (CHD) risks in Hong Kong (HK) remains significant and requires exploring. This article addresses the ability to reduce CHD risks among the HK Chinese. Through secondary analysis, a qualitative descriptive design using focus group interviews and content analysis were adopted. Older and younger adults were invited for the study. An interview schedule was used to guide discussions during focus group interviews. Four categories emerged from the data: planning of health actions, control of risk-reducing behavior, perceived opportunities for understanding CHD, and chest pain appraisal. Local culture and population needs play a central role in disease perception and prevention. The findings are essential to target strategies for initiating health acts for younger adults and establish public education resources that underscore understanding of CHD risk, symptom recognition, and disease management, particularly among those middle-aged and older people at high risk and with the diseased populations. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  7. Evaluation of severe accident risks and the potential for risk reduction: Grand Gulf, Unit 1. Draft for comment, February 1987

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Amos, C N [Technadyne Engineering Consultants, Inc., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Benjamin, A S; Kunsman, D M; Williams, D C [Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM (United States); Boyd, G J; Lewis, S R [Safety and Reliability Optimization Services, Inc., Knoxville, TN (United States); Smith, L N [Science Applications International Corporation, Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    1987-04-01

    The Severe Accident Risk Reduction Program (SARRP) has completed a rebaselining of the risks to the public from a boiling water reactor with a Mark III containment (Grand Gulf, Unit 1). Emphasis was placed on determining the magnitude and character of the uncertainties, rather than focusing on a point estimate. The risk-reduction potential of a set of proposed safety option backfits was also studied, and their costs and benefits were also evaluated. It was found that the risks from internal events are generally low relative to previous studies; for example, most of the uncertainty range is lower than the point estimate of risk for the Peach Bottom plant in the Reactor Safety Study (RSS). However, certain unresolved issues cause the top of the uncertainty band to appear at a level that is comparable with the RSS point estimate. These issues include the diesel generator failure rate, iodine and cesium revolatilization after vessel breach and the possibility of reactor vessel pedestal failure caused by core debris attack. Some of the postulated safety options appear to be potentially cost effective for the Grand Gulf power plant, particularly when onsite accidents costs are included in the evaluation of benefits. Principally these include procedural modifications and relatively inexpensive hardware additions to insure core cooling in the event of a station blackout. This work supports the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's assessment of severe accidents in NUREG-1150. (author)

  8. Testing the reliability of the Fall Risk Screening Tool in an elderly ambulatory population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fielding, Susan J; McKay, Michael; Hyrkas, Kristiina

    2013-11-01

    To identify and test the reliability of a fall risk screening tool in an ambulatory outpatient clinic. The Fall Risk Screening Tool (Albert Lea Medical Center, MN, USA) was scripted for an interview format. Two interviewers separately screened a convenience sample of 111 patients (age ≥ 65 years) in an ambulatory outpatient clinic in a northeastern US city. The interviewers' scoring of fall risk categories was similar. There was good internal consistency (Cronbach's α = 0.834-0.889) and inter-rater reliability [intra-class correlation coefficients (ICC) = 0.824-0.881] for total, Risk Factor and Client's Health Status subscales. The Physical Environment scores indicated acceptable internal consistency (Cronbach's α = 0.742) and adequate reliability (ICC = 0.688). Two Physical Environment items (furniture and medical equipment condition) had low reliabilities [Kappa (K) = 0.323, P = 0.08; K = -0.078, P = 0.648), respectively. The scripted Fall Risk Screening Tool demonstrated good reliability in this sample. Rewording two Physical Environment items will be considered. A reliable instrument such as the scripted Fall Risk Screening Tool provides a standardised assessment for identifying high fall risk patients. This tool is especially useful because it assesses personal, behavioural and environmental factors specific to community-dwelling patients; the interview format also facilitates patient-provider interaction. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  9. Social media as a risk communication tool following Typhoon Haiyan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christine Tiffany Cool

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Problem: In the aftermath of Typhoon Haiyan, the World Health Organization (WHO Representative Office in the Philippines had no social media presence to share timely, relevant public health information. Context: Risk communication is essential to emergency management for public health message dissemination. As social media sites, such as Facebook, are popular in the Philippines, these were adopted for risk communication during the response to Haiyan. Action and outcome: The WHO Representative Office in the Philippines established Facebook, Twitter and Instagram accounts. Thirty days after these social medial channels were established, a gradual increase in followers was observed. Facebook saw the largest increase in followers which occurred as posted content gradually evolved from general public health information to more pro-active public health intervention and preparedness messaging. This included information on key health interventions encouraging followers to adopt protective behaviours to mitigate public health threats that frequently occur after a disaster. Lessons learnt: During the response to Haiyan, creating a social media presence, raising a follower base and developing meaningful messages and content was possible. This event underscored the importance of building a social media strategy in non-emergency times and supported the value of developing public health messages and content that both educates and interests the general public.

  10. Development tools for risk implementation of entrepreneurship infrastructure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rustam Ilkamovich Malikov

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available In the present article, we consider the organizational, economic and institutional aspects of the implementation of infrastructure projects in the Russian Federation. The main objective of the work is to try to organize the parameters of the national economy on the criteria of quality and availability of infrastructure for domestic business. According to the authors, an effective solution to the problem of modernization of infrastructure businesses in the regions may be the result of interaction between the state, the public and businesses to achieve the consolidation of their joint efforts. However, inadequate institutional and legal framework for the interaction of the institutions of government and business can be a significant barrier to the implementation of infrastructure projects to ensure economic activities of businesses. For this reason it is necessary to increase the loyalty and mutual benefit relationship of relevant government agencies and commercial organizations to develop the infrastructure of the complex in the context of meeting the mutual expectations of the parties at all stages of interaction. With the use of fuzzy set theory researchers presented a risk assessment model for infrastructure projects. The use of the model will allow for the participation of the rationale business structure in the formation of infrastructure resources to meet emerging potential benefits in the prevailing levels of risk.

  11. Social media as a risk communication tool following Typhoon Haiyan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cool, Christine Tiffany; Claravall, Marie Chantal; Hall, Julie Lyn; Taketani, Keisuke; Zepeda, John Paul; Gehner, Monika; Lawe-Davies, Olivia

    2015-01-01

    In the aftermath of Typhoon Haiyan, the World Health Organization (WHO) Representative Office in the Philippines had no social media presence to share timely, relevant public health information. Risk communication is essential to emergency management for public health message dissemination. As social media sites, such as Facebook, are popular in the Philippines, these were adopted for risk communication during the response to Haiyan. The WHO Representative Office in the Philippines established Facebook, Twitter and Instagram accounts. Thirty days after these social medial channels were established, a gradual increase in followers was observed. Facebook saw the largest increase in followers which occurred as posted content gradually evolved from general public health information to more pro-active public health intervention and preparedness messaging. This included information on key health interventions encouraging followers to adopt protective behaviours to mitigate public health threats that frequently occur after a disaster. During the response to Haiyan, creating a social media presence, raising a follower base and developing meaningful messages and content was possible. This event underscored the importance of building a social media strategy in non-emergency times and supported the value of developing public health messages and content that both educates and interests the general public.

  12. Promoting flood risk reduction: The role of insurance in Germany and England

    Science.gov (United States)

    Surminski, Swenja; Thieken, Annegret H.

    2017-10-01

    Improving society's ability to prepare for, respond to and recover from flooding requires integrated, anticipatory flood risk management (FRM). However, most countries still focus their efforts on responding to flooding events if and when they occur rather than addressing their current and future vulnerability to flooding. Flood insurance is one mechanism that could promote a more ex ante approach to risk by supporting risk reduction activities. This paper uses an adapted version of Easton's System Theory to investigate the role of insurance for FRM in Germany and England. We introduce an anticipatory FRM framework, which allows flood insurance to be considered as part of a broader policy field. We analyze if and how flood insurance can catalyze a change toward a more anticipatory approach to FRM. In particular we consider insurance's role in influencing five key components of anticipatory FRM: risk knowledge, prevention through better planning, property-level protection measures, structural protection and preparedness (for response). We find that in both countries FRM is still a reactive, event-driven process, while anticipatory FRM remains underdeveloped. Collaboration between insurers and FRM decision-makers has already been successful, for example in improving risk knowledge and awareness, while in other areas insurance acts as a disincentive for more risk reduction action. In both countries there is evidence that insurance can play a significant role in encouraging anticipatory FRM, but this remains underutilized. Effective collaboration between insurers and government should not be seen as a cost, but as an investment to secure future insurability through flood resilience.

  13. Risk score modeling of multiple gene to gene interactions using aggregated-multifactor dimensionality reduction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dai Hongying

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Multifactor Dimensionality Reduction (MDR has been widely applied to detect gene-gene (GxG interactions associated with complex diseases. Existing MDR methods summarize disease risk by a dichotomous predisposing model (high-risk/low-risk from one optimal GxG interaction, which does not take the accumulated effects from multiple GxG interactions into account. Results We propose an Aggregated-Multifactor Dimensionality Reduction (A-MDR method that exhaustively searches for and detects significant GxG interactions to generate an epistasis enriched gene network. An aggregated epistasis enriched risk score, which takes into account multiple GxG interactions simultaneously, replaces the dichotomous predisposing risk variable and provides higher resolution in the quantification of disease susceptibility. We evaluate this new A-MDR approach in a broad range of simulations. Also, we present the results of an application of the A-MDR method to a data set derived from Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis patients treated with methotrexate (MTX that revealed several GxG interactions in the folate pathway that were associated with treatment response. The epistasis enriched risk score that pooled information from 82 significant GxG interactions distinguished MTX responders from non-responders with 82% accuracy. Conclusions The proposed A-MDR is innovative in the MDR framework to investigate aggregated effects among GxG interactions. New measures (pOR, pRR and pChi are proposed to detect multiple GxG interactions.

  14. Tensit - a simulation tool for migration, risk and dose calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, J.; Kautsky, U.; Vahlund, C.F.

    2004-01-01

    During the next years the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co (SKB) performs site investigations for a future repository of spent nuclear fuel. The repository will be situated in crystalline rock at a depth of approximately 500 m. Novel methods based on systems and landscape ecology are developed to understand the interacting mechanisms and finally, to model radionuclide migration in the biosphere using site specific data. These models and methods are later used as part of the overall safety assessment for the repository where also migration in the near field and in the bedrock is considered. In the present paper, a newly developed probabilistic simulation package, TENSIT, is presented. The package is based on pre-existing codes (Matlab, Simulink and the probabilistic engine-at-risk) and is capable of performing radionuclide migration calculations both for the repository and the biosphere. Hence, a platform independent, transparent (well documented and intuitive on a model scale), thoroughly supported, efficient and user friendly (graphical interface for the modeler) code can be developed at a fairly low cost. Comparisons with other codes used for compartment based biosphere modelling and the PSACOIN Level 1B exercise shows on a good agreement on the application scale. Moreover, by basing the package on continuously maintained, pre-existing codes, potential risks associated with a less spread software may be avoided. In addition to the compartment based models based on transfer factors, TENSIT is also able to handle the more complex ecosystem models (based on flow of carbon and nutrients) either separately or in combination with the compartment models. Within the project, biosphere migration calculations have been performed using TENSIT for a watershed in the Forsmark area (one of the studied sites). In this simulation, data from the ongoing site investigation program has been used to define the based model. (author)

  15. Probabilistic soil erosion modeling using the Erosion Risk Management Tool (ERMIT) after wildfires

    Science.gov (United States)

    P. R. Robichaud; W. J. Elliot; J. W. Wagenbrenner

    2011-01-01

    The decision of whether or not to apply post-fire hillslope erosion mitigation treatments, and if so, where these treatments are most needed, is a multi-step process. Land managers must assess the risk of damaging runoff and sediment delivery events occurring on the unrecovered burned hillslope. We developed the Erosion Risk Management Tool (ERMiT) to address this need...

  16. Overview and Demonstration of USEPA’s Risk-Informed Materials Management (RIMM) Tool System

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Risk-Informed Materials Management (RIMM) Tool System is a data gathering and analysis platform for conducting material disposal and beneficial use assessments. Users can evaluate risks to human and ecological receptors associated with exposures to organic and inorganic chemi...

  17. Applicability of the Existing CVD Risk Assessment Tools to Type II Diabetics in Oman: A Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdulhakeem Al-Rawahi

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Patients with type II diabetes (T2DM have an elevated risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD, and it is considered to be a leading cause of morbidity and premature mortality in these patients. Many traditional risk factors such as age, male sex, hypertension, dyslipidemia, glycemic control, diabetes duration, renal dysfunction, obesity, and smoking have been studied and identified as independent factors for CVD. Quantifying the risk of CVD among diabetics using the common risk factors in order to plan the treatment and preventive measures is important in the management of these patients as recommended by many clinical guidelines. Therefore, several risk assessment tools have been developed in different parts of the world for this purpose. These include the tools that have been developed for general populations and considered T2DM as a risk factor, and the tools that have been developed for T2DM populations specifically. However, due to the differences in sociodemographic factors and lifestyle patterns, as well as the differences in the distribution of various CVD risk factors in different diabetic populations, the external applicability of these tools on different populations is questionable. This review aims to address the applicability of the existing CVD risk models to the Omani diabetic population.

  18. Social media as a useful tool in food risk and benefit communication? A strategic orientation approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rutsaert, P.; Pieniak, Z.; Regan, A.; McConnon, A.; Kuttschreuter, M.; Lores, M.; Lozano, N.; Guzzon, A.; Santare, D; Verbeke, W.

    2014-01-01

    Although considerable progress has been made in understanding the determinants of risk perception and in identifying the necessary components of effective food risk and benefit communication, this has not been matched with the development of efficient and appropriate communication tools. Little work

  19. NHS health checks through general practice: randomised trial of population cardiovascular risk reduction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cochrane Thomas

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The global burden of the major vascular diseases is projected to rise and to remain the dominant non-communicable disease cluster well into the twenty first century. The Department of Health in England has developed the NHS Health Check service as a policy initiative to reduce population vascular disease risk. The aims of this study were to monitor population changes in cardiovascular disease (CVD risk factors over the first year of the new service and to assess the value of tailored lifestyle support, including motivational interview with ongoing support and referral to other services. Methods Randomised trial comparing NHS Health Check service only with NHS Health Check service plus additional lifestyle support in Stoke on Trent, England. Thirty eight general practices and 601 (365 usual care, 236 additional lifestyle support patients were recruited and randomised independently between September 2009 and February 2010. Changes in population CVD risk between baseline and one year follow-up were compared, using intention-to-treat analysis. The primary outcome was the Framingham 10 year CVD risk score. Secondary outcomes included individual modifiable risk measures and prevalence of individual risk categories. Additional lifestyle support included referral to a lifestyle coach and free sessions as needed for: weight management, physical activity, cook and eat and positive thinking. Results Average population CVD risk decreased from 32.9% to 29.4% (p Conclusions The NHS Health Check service in Stoke on Trent resulted in significant reduction in estimated population CVD risk. There was no evidence of further benefit of the additional lifestyle support services in terms of absolute CVD risk reduction.

  20. Risk prediction and risk reduction in patients with manifest arterial disease

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Goessens, B.M.B.; Goessens, B.M.B.

    2006-01-01

    Risicovoorspelling en risicoverlaging bij patienten met manifest vaatlijden Engelstalig abstract The number of patients with clinical manifest arterial disease is increasing because of the aging of the population. Patients with manifest arterial disease have an increased risk of a new vascular event

  1. Schizophrenia--A High-Risk Factor for Suicides: Clues to Risk Reduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caldwell, Constance B.; Gottesman, Irving I.

    1992-01-01

    Notes that suicide is chief cause of premature death among schizophrenic persons, with lifetime incidence of suicide for patients with schizophrenia at 10-13% compared to general population estimate of 1%. Discusses salient risk factors for suicide in schizophrenics and types of especially vulnerable patients identified by research. Notes that…

  2. A practical approach to assess depression risk and to guide risk reduction strategies in later life

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Almeida, O.P.; Alfonso, H.; Pirkis, J; Kerse, N.; Sim, M.; Flicker, L.; Snowdon, J.; Draper, B.; Byrne, G.; Goldney, R.; Lautenschlager, N.T.; Stocks, N.; Scazufca, M.; Huisman, M.; Araya, R.; Pfaff, J.

    2011-01-01

    Background: Many factors have been associated with the onset and maintenance of depressive symptoms in later life, although this knowledge is yet to be translated into significant health gains for the population. This study gathered information about common modifiable and non-modifiable risk factors

  3. Validity and Reliability of Persian Version of Johns Hopkins Fall Risk Assessment Tool among Aged People

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    hadi hojati

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Background & Aim: It is crucial to identify aged patients in risk of falls in clinical settings. Johns Hopkins Fall Risk Assessment Tool (JHFRAT is one of most applied international instrument to assess elderly patients for the risk of falls. The aim of this study was to evaluate reliability and internal consistency of the JHFRAT. Methods & Materials: In this cross-sectional study for validity assessment of the tool, WHO’s standard protocol was applied for translation-back translation of the tool. Face and content validity of the tool was confirmed by ten person of expert faculty members for its applicability in clinical setting. In this pilot study, the inclusion criteria were being 60 or more years old, hospitalized in the last 8 hours prior to assessment and in proper cognitive condition assessed by MMSE. Subjects of the study were (n=70 elderly patients who were newly hospitalized in Shahroud Emam Hossein Hospital. Data were analyzed using SPSS software- version 16. Internal consistency of the tool was calculated by Cronbach’s alpha. Results: According to the results of the study Persian version of JHFRAT was a valid tool for application on clinical setting. The Persian version of the tool had Cronbach’s alpha equal to 0/733. Conclusion: Based on the findings of the current study, it can be concluded that Persian version of the JHFRAT is a valid and reliable tool to be applied for assessment of elderly senior citizens on admission in any clinical settings.

  4. The impact of parent involvement in an effective adolescent risk reduction intervention on sexual risk communication and adolescent outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Bo; Stanton, Bonita; Deveaux, Lynette; Li, Xiaoming; Koci, Veronica; Lunn, Sonja

    2014-12-01

    Parent involvement in prevention efforts targeting adolescents increases the impact of such programs. However, the majority of risk-reduction intervention programs that are implemented through schools do not include parents, in part because most existing parental interventions require significant time commitment by parents. We designed a brief parent-adolescent sexual risk communication intervention to be delivered with an effective HIV prevention intervention as part of a randomized, controlled trial among 2,564 grade 10 students and their parents in the Bahamas. Mixed effects modeling analysis was conducted to evaluate the effect of the brief parent-adolescent communication intervention using four waves of longitudinal data. Results indicate that a brief parent-adolescent communication intervention is effective in improving parent-adolescent communication on sex-related issues and perceived parental monitoring as well as the youth's condom use skills and self-efficacy. There is a marginal effect on consistent condom use. In addition, there is an apparent dose effect of the brief parent intervention on perceived parent-adolescent sexual risk communication and adolescent outcomes. These findings suggest that adolescent risk reduction interventions should include a brief parent-adolescent communication intervention that should be reinforced by periodic boosters in order to enhance the impact of adolescent HIV prevention programs.

  5. ESA Science Archives, VO tools and remote Scientific Data reduction in Grid Architectures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arviset, C.; Barbarisi, I.; de La Calle, I.; Fajersztejn, N.; Freschi, M.; Gabriel, C.; Gomez, P.; Guainazzi, M.; Ibarra, A.; Laruelo, A.; Leon, I.; Micol, A.; Parrilla, E.; Ortiz, I.; Osuna, P.; Salgado, J.; Stebe, A.; Tapiador, D.

    2008-08-01

    This paper presents the latest functionalities of the ESA Science Archives located at ESAC, Spain, in particular, the following archives : the ISO Data Archive (IDA {http://iso.esac.esa.int/ida}), the XMM-Newton Science Archive (XSA {http://xmm.esac.esa.int/xsa}), the Integral SOC Science Data Archive (ISDA {http://integral.esac.esa.int/isda}) and the Planetary Science Archive (PSA {http://www.rssd.esa.int/psa}), both the classical and the map-based Mars Express interfaces. Furthermore, the ESA VOSpec {http://esavo.esac.esa.int/vospecapp} spectra analysis tool is described, which allows to access and display spectral information from VO resources (both real observational and theoretical spectra), including access to Lines database and recent analysis functionalities. In addition, we detail the first implementation of RISA (Remote Interface for Science Analysis), a web service providing remote users the ability to create fully configurable XMM-Newton data analysis workflows, and to deploy and run them on the ESAC Grid. RISA makes fully use of the inter-operability provided by the SIAP (Simple Image Access Protocol) services as data input, and at the same time its VO-compatible output can directly be used by general VO-tools.

  6. Assessment of food safety practices of food service food handlers (risk assessment data): testing a communication intervention (evaluation of tools).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapman, Benjamin; Eversley, Tiffany; Fillion, Katie; Maclaurin, Tanya; Powell, Douglas

    2010-06-01

    Globally, foodborne illness affects an estimated 30% of individuals annually. Meals prepared outside of the home are a risk factor for acquiring foodborne illness and have been implicated in up to 70% of traced outbreaks. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has called on food safety communicators to design new methods and messages aimed at increasing food safety risk-reduction practices from farm to fork. Food safety infosheets, a novel communication tool designed to appeal to food handlers and compel behavior change, were evaluated. Food safety infosheets were provided weekly to food handlers in working food service operations for 7 weeks. It was hypothesized that through the posting of food safety infosheets in highly visible locations, such as kitchen work areas and hand washing stations, that safe food handling behaviors of food service staff could be positively influenced. Using video observation, food handlers (n = 47) in eight food service operations were observed for a total of 348 h (pre- and postintervention combined). After the food safety infosheets were introduced, food handlers demonstrated a significant increase (6.7%, P < 0.05, 95% confidence interval) in mean hand washing attempts, and a significant reduction in indirect cross-contamination events (19.6%, P < 0.05, 95% confidence interval). Results of the research demonstrate that posting food safety infosheets is an effective intervention tool that positively influences the food safety behaviors of food handlers.

  7. Social media as a useful tool in food risk and benefit communication? A strategic orientation approach

    OpenAIRE

    Verbeke, W.; Santare, D.; Guzzon, A.; Lozano, N.; Lores, M.; Kuttschreuter, M.; McConnon, Á.; Regan, Á.; Pieniak, Z.; Rutsaert, P.

    2014-01-01

    10.1016/j.foodpol.2014.02.003 Although considerable progress has been made in understanding the determinants of risk perception and in identifying the necessary components of effective food risk and benefit communication, this has not been matched with the development of efficient and appropriate communication tools. Little work has been done examining the implications of the explosion of new media and web technologies, which may offer potential for improving food risk and benefit communi...

  8. Treatment thresholds for osteoporosis and reimbursability criteria: perspectives associated with fracture risk-assessment tools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adami, Silvano; Bertoldo, Francesco; Gatti, Davide; Minisola, Giovanni; Rossini, Maurizio; Sinigaglia, Luigi; Varenna, Massimo

    2013-09-01

    The definition of osteoporosis was based for several years on bone mineral density values, which were used by most guidelines for defining treatment thresholds. The availability of tools for the estimation of fracture risk, such as FRAX™ or its adapted Italian version, DeFRA, is providing a way to grade osteoporosis severity. By applying these new tools, the criteria identified in Italy for treatment reimbursability (e.g., "Nota 79") are confirmed as extremely conservative. The new fracture risk-assessment tools provide continuous risk values that can be used by health authorities (or "payers") for identifying treatment thresholds. FRAX estimates the risk for "major osteoporotic fractures," which are not counted in registered fracture trials. Here, we elaborate an algorithm to convert vertebral and nonvertebral fractures to the "major fractures" of FRAX, and this allows a cost-effectiveness assessment for each drug.

  9. Software Tool Implementing the Fuzzy AHP Method in Ecological Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radionovs Andrejs

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Due to the increased spread of invasive animals and plants in the territory of Latvia, the necessity of ecological risk assessment related to such kind of spread has grown lately. In cases with sufficient statistical data, the risk assessment may be successfully performed on the basis of statistical methods. The amount of statistical data in the context of spread of invasive animals and plants is pretty poor; therefore, the only method of ecological risk assessment remains subjective judgements of experts. The present paper proposes using a programming tool for ecological risk analysis elaborated by the authors. With the help of this programming tool the method of Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchical Process is implemented. The elements of the pairwise comparison matrix are allowed to be expressed by triangular and trapezoidal fuzzy sets. The presented tool makes it possible to design the fuzzy pair-wise comparison matrix and process the results in a user-friendly way.

  10. Theoretical framework to study exercise motivation for breast cancer risk reduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Maureen E

    2008-01-01

    To identify an appropriate theoretical framework to study exercise motivation for breast cancer risk reduction among high-risk women. An extensive review of the literature was conducted to gather relevant information pertaining to the Health Promotion Model, self-determination theory, social cognitive theory, Health Belief Model, Transtheoretical Model, theory of planned behavior, and protection motivation theory. An iterative approach was used to summarize the literature related to exercise motivation within each theoretical framework. Protection motivation theory could be used to examine the effects of perceived risk and self-efficacy in motivating women to exercise to facilitate health-related behavioral change. Evidence-based research within a chosen theoretical model can aid practitioners when making practical recommendations to reduce breast cancer risk.

  11. Communication products for the Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) tsunami scenario: Chapter K in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, Suzanne C.

    2013-01-01

    Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR), like its predecessor the Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project, has a mission to increase the use of science by decision-makers of all kinds. Thus, an important part of any SAFRR scenario is development of products that enhance usability of the science. In this tsunami scenario, the focus has been on development of three kinds of products: products that augment typical outputs of scientific studies, such as reports, to make the results of the scenario more relevant and usable to nonscientists; products that distill local impacts and allow users in specific locales to identify which aspects of the broad regional study apply to their local area; and

  12. REDUCTION OF SYSTEMIC RISK IN SERBIA THROUGH INTELLIGENT RISK MANAGEMENT IN STATE-OWNED ENTERPRISES

    OpenAIRE

    Dragan Đuričin; Iva Vuksanović

    2012-01-01

    These days, the effects of the combined crisis in Serbia have been larger than ever. Serbia was already in a transitional recession when it entered global economic crisis of 2008. The global double dip recession and this domestic recession, caused by structural imbalances before and during the transition, exacerbate each other's negative effects. Consequently, companies find themselves exposed to systemic (or external) risk that is beyond their control, and is continually increasing. The curr...

  13. Continuous improvement process and waste reduction through a QFD tool: the case of a metallurgic plant

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leoni Pentiado Godoy

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes the use of QFD for the continuous improvement of production processes and waste reduction actions. To collect the information we used the simple observation and questionnaire with closed questions applied to employees, representing 88.75% of the population that works in the production processes of an industry of metal-mechanic sector, located inRio Grandedo Sul. QFD is an effective method of quality planning, because it provides a diagnosis that underpins the definition of improvement actions aimed at combating waste. Actions were set providing improved communication between the sectors, enabling the delivery of products with specifications that meet customer requirements, on time and the right amounts, at a minimum cost and satisfaction of those involved with the company. The implementation of these actions reduces waste, minimizes the extra work, maximizes effective labor and increases profitability.

  14. Organohalide Respiring Bacteria and Reductive Dehalogenases: Key Tools in Organohalide Bioremediation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bat-Erdene eJugder

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Organohalides are recalcitrant pollutants that have been responsible for substantial contamination of soils and groundwater. Organohalide-respiring bacteria (ORB provide a potential solution to remediate contaminated sites, through their ability to use organohalides as terminal electron acceptors to yield energy for growth (i.e. organohalide respiration. Ideally, this process results in non- or lesser-halogenated compounds that are mostly less toxic to the environment or more easily degraded. At the heart of these processes are reductive dehalogenases (RDase, which are membrane bound enzymes coupled with other components that facilitate dehalogenation of organohalides to generate cellular energy. This review focuses RDases, concentrating on those which have been purified (partially or wholly and functionally characterized. Further, the paper reviews the major bacteria involved in organohalide breakdown and the evidence for microbial evolution of RDases. Finally, the capacity for using ORB in a bioremediation and bioaugmentation capacity are discussed.

  15. Risk factors for avascular necrosis after closed reduction for developmental dysplasia of the hip.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schur, Mathew D; Lee, Christopher; Arkader, Alexandre; Catalano, Anthony; Choi, Paul D

    2016-06-01

    The purpose of this study was to identify and evaluate risk factors of avascular necrosis (AVN) after closed treatment for developmental dysplasia of the hip (DDH). A retrospective review of children diagnosed with DDH at a tertiary-care children's hospital between 1986 and 2009 was performed. The presence of AVN was assessed according to Salter's classification system. Eighty-two affected hips in 70 children with an average age of 10 months at closed reduction (range 1-31 months) and 5 years (range 2-19 years) of follow-up met the inclusion criteria. Twenty-nine (of 82, 35 %) affected hips developed AVN. The use of pre-reduction traction (p = 0.019) increased the risk of AVN, while preoperative Pavlik harness or brace trial (p = 0.28), presence of ossific nucleus at the time of closed reduction (p = 0.16), and adductor tenotomy (p = 0.37) were not significant factors. Laterality (right vs. left) was also not a significant risk factor (p = 0.75), but patients who underwent closed reduction for bilateral DDH were less likely to develop AVN (p = 0.027). Overall, the degree of abduction did not affect the rate of AVN (p = 0.87). However, in patients treated with closed reduction younger than 6 months of age, the rate of AVN was increased with abduction ≥50° (9/15, 60 %) compared to abduction AVN were more likely to require subsequent surgery (p = 0.034) and more likely to report a fair/poor clinical outcome (p = 0.049). The risk of AVN (35 %) following closed reduction and spica casting for DDH is high. The degree of abduction in spica casts appears to be a risk factor in patients ≤6 months old. The authors recommend that abduction in spica casts should be limited to <50° in children younger than 6 months of age. IV.

  16. Optimising preoperative risk stratification tools for prostate cancer using mpMRI

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reisaeter, Lars A.R.; Losnegaard, Are; Biermann, Martin; Roervik, Jarle [Haukeland University Hospital, Department of Radiology, Bergen (Norway); University of Bergen, Department of Clinical Medicine, Bergen (Norway); Fuetterer, Jurgen J. [Radboud University Nijmegen Medical Centre, Department of Radiology, Nijmegen (Netherlands); Nygaard, Yngve [Haukeland University Hospital, Department of Urology, Bergen (Norway); Monssen, Jan [Haukeland University Hospital, Department of Radiology, Bergen (Norway); Gravdal, Karsten [Haukeland University Hospital, Department of Pathology, Bergen (Norway); Halvorsen, Ole J.; Akslen, Lars A. [Haukeland University Hospital, Department of Pathology, Bergen (Norway); Centre for Cancer Biomarkers CCBIO, Department of Clinical Medicine, University of Bergen (Norway); Haukaas, Svein; Beisland, Christian [University of Bergen, Department of Clinical Medicine, Bergen (Norway); Haukeland University Hospital, Department of Urology, Bergen (Norway)

    2018-03-15

    To improve preoperative risk stratification for prostate cancer (PCa) by incorporating multiparametric MRI (mpMRI) features into risk stratification tools for PCa, CAPRA and D'Amico. 807 consecutive patients operated on by robot-assisted radical prostatectomy at our institution during the period 2010-2015 were followed to identify biochemical recurrence (BCR). 591 patients were eligible for final analysis. We employed stepwise backward likelihood methodology and penalised Cox cross-validation to identify the most significant predictors of BCR including mpMRI features. mpMRI features were then integrated into image-adjusted (IA) risk prediction models and the two risk prediction tools were then evaluated both with and without image adjustment using receiver operating characteristics, survival and decision curve analyses. 37 patients suffered BCR. Apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) and radiological extraprostatic extension (rEPE) from mpMRI were both significant predictors of BCR. Both IA prediction models reallocated more than 20% of intermediate-risk patients to the low-risk group, reducing their estimated cumulative BCR risk from approximately 5% to 1.1%. Both IA models showed improved prognostic performance with a better separation of the survival curves. Integrating ADC and rEPE from mpMRI of the prostate into risk stratification tools improves preoperative risk estimation for BCR. (orig.)

  17. [Conflict matrix : Risk management tool in the operating room].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andel, D; Markstaller, K; Andel, H

    2017-05-01

    In business conflicts have long been known to have a negative effect on costs and team performance. In medicine this aspect has been widely neglected, especially when optimizing processes for operating room (OR) management. In the multidisciplinary setting of OR management, shortcomings in rules for decision making and lack of communication result in members perceiving themselves as competitors in the patient's environment rather than acting as art of a multiprofessional team. This inevitably leads to the emergence and escalation of conflicts. We developed a conflict matrix to provide an inexpensive and objective way for evaluating the level of escalation of conflicts in a multiprofessional working environment, such as an OR. The senior members of all involved disciplines were asked to estimate the level of conflict escalation between the individual professional groups on a scale of 0-9. By aggregating the response data, an overview of the conflict matrix within this OR section was created. No feedback was received from 1 of the 11 contacted occupational groups. By color coding the median, minimum and maximum values of the retrieved data, an intuitive overview of the escalation levels of conflict could be provided. The value range of all feedbacks was between 0 and 6. Estimation of the escalation levels differed widely within one category, showing a range of up to 6 (out of 6) levels. The presented assessment using a conflict matrix is a simple and cost-effective method to assess the conflict landscape, especially in multidisciplinary environments, such as OR management. The chance of conflict prevention or the early recognition of existing conflicts represents an enormous potential for cost and risk saving and might have positive long-term effects by building a culture of conflict prevention at the workplace and a positive influence on interdisciplinary cooperation in this working environment.

  18. Designing a Physical Security System for Risk Reduction in a Hypothetical Nuclear Facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saleh, A.A.; Abd Elaziz, M.

    2017-01-01

    Physical security in a nuclear facility means detection, prevention and response to threat, the ft, sabotage, unauthorized access and illegal transfer involving radioactive and nuclear material. This paper proposes a physical security system designing concepts to reduce the risk associated with variant threats to a nuclear facility. This paper presents a study of the unauthorized removal and sabotage in a hypothetical nuclear facility considering deter, delay and response layers. More over, the study involves performing any required upgrading to the security system by investigating the nuclear facility layout and considering all physical security layers design to enhance the weakness for risk reduction

  19. BARC-risk monitor- a tool for operational safety assessment in nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vinod, Gopika; Saraf, R.K.; Babar, A.K.; Hadap, Nikhil

    2000-12-01

    Probabilistic safety assessment has become a key tool as on today to identify and understand nuclear power plant vulnerabilities. As a result of the availability of these PSA studies, there is a desire to use them to enhance plant safety and to operate the nuclear stations in the most efficient manner. Risk monitor is a PC based tool, which computes the real time safety level and assists plant personnel to manage day-to-day activities. Risk monitor is a PC based user friendly software tool used for modification and re-analysis of a nuclear power plant. Operation of risk monitor is based on PSA methods for assisting in day to day applications. Risk monitoring programs can assess the risk profile and are used to optimise the operation of nuclear power plants with respect to a minimum risk level over the operating time. This report presents the background activities of risk monitor, its application areas and also gives the status of such tools in international scenarios. The software is based on the PSA model of Kaiga generating station and would be applicable to similar design configuration. (author)

  20. Does mitigation save? Reviewing cost-benefit analyses of disaster risk reduction

    OpenAIRE

    Shreve, Cheney M.; Kelman, Ilan

    2014-01-01

    The benefit-cost-ratio (BCR), used in cost-benefit analysis (CBA), is an indicator that attempts to summarize the overall value for money of a project. Disaster costs continue to rise and the demand has increased to demonstrate the economic benefit of disaster risk reduction (DRR) to policy makers. This study compiles and compares original CBA case studies reporting DRR BCRs, without restrictions as to hazard type, location, scale, or other parameters. Many results were identified supporting ...

  1. Public risk-reduction measures: cost-effectiveness from a global point-of-view

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oliveira, L.F.S. de; Motta Barros, E.B. da; Fleming, P.V.; Rosa, L.P.

    1985-05-01

    A review of systemic or global approach to cost-effectiveness analysis of risk-reduction measures is presented, and its advantages and limitations are discussed. The method is applied for problem of the cost-effectiveness of increasing the Angra 3 reactor containment wall thickness from 60cm to 180cm thick, in case of a direct commercial aircraft crash on it. (Author) [pt

  2. Improving End-To-End Tsunami Warning for Risk Reduction on Canada’s West Coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-01-01

    in 2014, up from 455 cals in 2013 (Chamber of Shipping, 2014). Even the more traditional forms of marine tourism such as sports fishing have been...some of the most noteworthy areas of new economic activity to emerge have been aquaculture, recreation and tourism , research and oil, gas and other...Risk Reduction on Canada’s West Coast (CSSP-2013-TI-1033) 3   annual value of output over $590 milion (Fisheries and Oceans Canada, 2013). Tourism

  3. Ethical Responsibility of Governance for Integrating Disaster Risk Reduction with Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parkash Gupta, Surya

    2015-04-01

    The development in the public as well as the private sectors is controlled and regulated, directly or indirectly by the governments at federal, provincial and local levels. If this development goes haphazard and unplanned, without due considerations to environmental constraints and potential hazards; it is likely to cause disasters or may get affected by disasters. Therefore, it becomes an ethical responsibility of the people involved in governance sector to integrate disaster risk reduction with development in their administrative territories through enforcement of appropriate policies, guidelines and regulatory mechanisms. Such mechanisms should address the social, scientific, economic, environmental, and legal requirements that play significant role in planning, implementation of developmental activities as well as disaster management. The paper focuses on defining the ethical responsibilities for the governance sector for integrating disaster risk reduction with development. It highlights the ethical issues with examples from two case studies, one from the Uttarakhand state and the other Odhisa state in India. The case studies illustrates how does it make a difference in disaster risk reduction if the governments own or do not own ethical responsibilities. The paper considers two major disaster events, flash floods in Uttarakhand state and Cyclone Phailin in Odhisa state, that happened during the year 2013. The study points out that it makes a great difference in terms of consequences and response to disasters when ethical responsibilities are owned by the governance sector. The papers attempts to define these ethical responsibilities for integrating disaster risk reduction with development so that the governments can be held accountable for their acts or non-actions.

  4. Risk Management and Viability of Public Organizations. Development of a Risk Measurement Tool: The Case of Greece

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iordanis Eleftheriadis

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: This paper provides an important contribution towards the development of a valid, reliable and cost-effective instrument that reduces operational and economic risk levels in public sector organizations. Design/methodology/approach: A quantitative methodology based on the collection of primary data via a questionnaire has been adopted in this research. Findings: The research results showed that the measurement tool selected, applied, presented and proposed is comprised of three (3 scales. The reliability analysis proved that all three scales are reliable; therefore, they are suitable for use as a risk measurement instrument. Research limitations/implications: The study's academic contribution is the application and testing of the aforementioned measurement instruments, which can now be utilised by researchers in the field of risk management, to further advance the study of risk management in public organizations in Greece. On the empirical level, the implementation of these three measurement instruments can assist public organizations in Greece via an easy and fast assessment of economic and operational risks. Originality/value: This tool can help public organizations gain insight into the level of risk they face at any given point in time in order plan their actions accordingly. At the same time, central state administration will have the necessary tools to monitor and support the organizations it evaluates.

  5. Participatory three dimensional mapping for the preparation of landslide disaster risk reduction program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kusratmoko, Eko; Wibowo, Adi; Cholid, Sofyan; Pin, Tjiong Giok

    2017-07-01

    This paper presents the results of applications of participatory three dimensional mapping (P3DM) method for fqcilitating the people of Cibanteng' village to compile a landslide disaster risk reduction program. Physical factors, as high rainfall, topography, geology and land use, and coupled with the condition of demographic and social-economic factors, make up the Cibanteng region highly susceptible to landslides. During the years 2013-2014 has happened 2 times landslides which caused economic losses, as a result of damage to homes and farmland. Participatory mapping is one part of the activities of community-based disaster risk reduction (CBDRR)), because of the involvement of local communities is a prerequisite for sustainable disaster risk reduction. In this activity, participatory mapping method are done in two ways, namely participatory two-dimensional mapping (P2DM) with a focus on mapping of disaster areas and participatory three-dimensional mapping (P3DM) with a focus on the entire territory of the village. Based on the results P3DM, the ability of the communities in understanding the village environment spatially well-tested and honed, so as to facilitate the preparation of the CBDRR programs. Furthermore, the P3DM method can be applied to another disaster areas, due to it becomes a medium of effective dialogue between all levels of involved communities.

  6. Takotsubo Cardiomyopathy: A Long Term Follow-up Shows Benefit with Risk Factor Reduction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Koroush Khalighi

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Only sparse data was available on long-term of Takotusbo Cardiomyopathy (TC. Previous studies suggested prognosis is not necessarily benign. We report the long-term follow-up of 12 TC patients actively managed with risk factor reduction. Retrospective analysis of all patients diagnosed with TC at our hospital between 1998 and 2010. We identified 12 patients with TC among 1651 cases of emergent left heart catheterization over 12 years. Mean follow-up time was 8.3 ± 3.6 years. All were female, 87% had hypertension, 25% had history of Coronary Artery Disease (CAD, 67% had hyperlipidemia, 44% had some preceding emotional trauma, and 44% had some physical/physiological stress. Previous studies have shown that over 50% of TC patients experience future cardiac events, and 10% have a recurrence of TC. Patients were prescribed therapeutic lifestyle changes (TLC and guideline directed medical therapy (GDMT for aggressive risk factor reduction. TLC included diet, exercise, and cardiac rehabilitation. GDMT often included aspirin, beta-blockers, ACE-inhibitors, and statins. Follow-up echocardiograms showed recovery and maintenance of the ejection fraction. There was no cardiac mortality and no recurrences of TC. Aggressive risk factor reduction with TLC and GDMT may be effective in improving the long term outcomes of patients with TC.

  7. Social Participation and Disaster Risk Reduction Behaviors in Tsunami Prone Areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Witvorapong, Nopphol; Muttarak, Raya; Pothisiri, Wiraporn

    2015-01-01

    This paper examines the relationships between social participation and disaster risk reduction actions. A survey of 557 households in tsunami prone areas in Phang Nga, Thailand was conducted following the 2012 Indian Ocean earthquakes. We use a multivariate probit model to jointly estimate the likelihood of undertaking three responses to earthquake and tsunami hazards (namely, (1) following disaster-related news closely, (2) preparing emergency kits and/or having a family emergency plan, and (3) having an intention to migrate) and community participation. We find that those who experienced losses from the 2004 tsunami are more likely to participate in community activities and respond to earthquake hazards. Compared to men, women are more likely to prepare emergency kits and/or have an emergency plan and have a greater intention to migrate. Living in a community with a higher proportion of women with tertiary education increases the probability of engaging in community activities and carrying out disaster risk reduction measures. Individuals who participate in village-based activities are 5.2% more likely to undertake all three risk reduction actions compared to those not engaging in community activities. This implies that encouraging participation in community activities can have positive externalities in disaster mitigation. PMID:26153891

  8. Development and validation of the FRAGIRE tool for assessment an older person's risk for frailty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vernerey, Dewi; Anota, Amelie; Vandel, Pierre; Paget-Bailly, Sophie; Dion, Michele; Bailly, Vanessa; Bonin, Marie; Pozet, Astrid; Foubert, Audrey; Benetkiewicz, Magdalena; Manckoundia, Patrick; Bonnetain, Franck

    2016-11-17

    Frailty is highly prevalent in elderly people. While significant progress has been made to understand its pathogenesis process, few validated questionnaire exist to assess the multidimensional concept of frailty and to detect people frail or at risk to become frail. The objectives of this study were to construct and validate a new frailty-screening instrument named Frailty Groupe Iso-Ressource Evaluation (FRAGIRE) that accurately predicts the risk for frailty in older adults. A prospective multicenter recruitment of the elderly patients was undertaken in France. The subjects were classified into financially-helped group (FH, with financial assistance) and non-financially helped group (NFH, without any financial assistance), considering FH subjects are more frail than the NFH group and thus representing an acceptable surrogate population for frailty. Psychometric properties of the FRAGIRE grid were assessed including discrimination between the FH and NFH groups. Items reduction was made according to statistical analyses and experts' point of view. The association between items response and tests with "help requested status" was assessed in univariate and multivariate unconditional logistic regression analyses and a prognostic score to become frail was finally proposed for each subject. Between May 2013 and July 2013, 385 subjects were included: 338 (88%) in the FH group and 47 (12%) in the NFH group. The initial FRAGIRE grid included 65 items. After conducting the item selection, the final grid of the FRAGIRE was reduced to 19 items. The final grid showed fair discrimination ability to predict frailty (area under the curve (AUC) = 0.85) and good calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow P-value = 0.580), reflecting a good agreement between the prediction by the final model and actual observation. The Cronbach's alpha for the developed tool scored as high as 0.69 (95% Confidence Interval: 0.64 to 0.74). The final prognostic score was excellent, with an AUC of 0

  9. Alcoholism Risk Reduction in France: A Modernised Approach Related to Alcohol Misuse Disorders

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Georges Brousse

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available During many years in France, risk reduction strategies for substance abuse concerned prevention strategies in the general population or interventions near users of illicit substances. In this spirit, the reduction of consumption only concerned opiate addicts. With regard to alcohol, the prevention messages relative to controlled consumption were difficult to transmit because of the importance of this product in the culture of the country. In addition, methods of treatment of alcoholism rested on the dogma of abstinence. Several factors have recently led to an evolution in the treatment of alcohol use disorders integrating the reduction of consumption in strategies. Strategies for reducing consumption should aim for consumption below recommended thresholds (two drinks per day for women, three for the men or, at least, in that direction. It must also be supported by pharmacotherapy and psychotherapy, which offer possibilities. Failure to manage reduction will allow the goals to be revisited and to reconsider abstinence. Finally this evolution or revolution is a new paradigm carried in particular by a pragmatic approach of the disease and new treatments. The aims of this article are to give elements of comprehension relating to the evolution of the practices in France in prevention and treatment of alcohol use disorders and in particular with regard to the reduction of consumption.

  10. The Role of Family in a Dietary Risk Reduction Intervention for Cardiovascular Disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tracy L. Schumacher

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Diet is an essential strategy for the prevention of primary and secondary cardiovascular disease (CVD events. The objectives were to examine: how families at increased risk of CVD perceived personal risk, their motivations to make dietary changes, their understanding of diet, and the influence of other family members. Individuals (>18 years who completed an Australian family-based CVD risk reduction program were invited to a semi-structured telephone interview. Responses were recorded, transcribed verbatim and analysed using a systematic deductive approach with coding derived from key concepts developed as part of the interview structure. Seventeen participants from eight families were interviewed (aged 18–70 years, 47% male, five with CVD diagnosis. Key themes indicated both intrinsic and extrinsic motivations to improve heart health, variations in risk perception, recognition of the role diet plays in heart health, and the extent of family influences on eating patterns. Discrepancies between perceived and actual CVD risk perception impacted on perceived “need” to modify current dietary patterns towards heart health recommendations. Therefore, strategies not reliant on risk perception are needed to engage those with low risk perception. This could involve identifying and accessing the family “ringleader” to influence involvement and capitalising on personal accountability to other family members.

  11. The Role of Family in a Dietary Risk Reduction Intervention for Cardiovascular Disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schumacher, Tracy L; Burrows, Tracy L; Thompson, Deborah I; Callister, Robin; Spratt, Neil J; Collins, Clare E

    2016-09-30

    Diet is an essential strategy for the prevention of primary and secondary cardiovascular disease (CVD) events. The objectives were to examine: how families at increased risk of CVD perceived personal risk, their motivations to make dietary changes, their understanding of diet, and the influence of other family members. Individuals (>18 years) who completed an Australian family-based CVD risk reduction program were invited to a semi-structured telephone interview. Responses were recorded, transcribed verbatim and analysed using a systematic deductive approach with coding derived from key concepts developed as part of the interview structure. Seventeen participants from eight families were interviewed (aged 18-70 years, 47% male, five with CVD diagnosis). Key themes indicated both intrinsic and extrinsic motivations to improve heart health, variations in risk perception, recognition of the role diet plays in heart health, and the extent of family influences on eating patterns. Discrepancies between perceived and actual CVD risk perception impacted on perceived "need" to modify current dietary patterns towards heart health recommendations. Therefore, strategies not reliant on risk perception are needed to engage those with low risk perception. This could involve identifying and accessing the family "ringleader" to influence involvement and capitalising on personal accountability to other family members.

  12. A text message intervention for alcohol risk reduction among community college students: TMAP.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bock, Beth C; Barnett, Nancy P; Thind, Herpreet; Rosen, Rochelle; Walaska, Kristen; Traficante, Regina; Foster, Robert; Deutsch, Chris; Fava, Joseph L; Scott-Sheldon, Lori A J

    2016-12-01

    Students at community colleges comprise nearly half of all U.S. college students and show higher risk of heavy drinking and related consequences compared to students at 4-year colleges, but no alcohol safety programs currently target this population. To examine the feasibility, acceptability, and preliminary efficacy of an alcohol risk-reduction program delivered through text messaging designed for community college (CC) students. Heavy drinking adult CC students (N=60) were enrolled and randomly assigned to the six-week active intervention (Text Message Alcohol Program: TMAP) or a control condition of general motivational (not alcohol related) text messages. TMAP text messages consisted of alcohol facts, strategies to limit alcohol use and related risks, and motivational messages. Assessments were conducted at baseline, week 6 (end of treatment) and week 12 (follow up). Most participants (87%) completed all follow up assessments. Intervention messages received an average rating of 6.8 (SD=1.5) on a 10-point scale. At week six, TMAP participants were less likely than controls to report heavy drinking and negative alcohol consequences. The TMAP group also showed significant increases in self-efficacy to resist drinking in high risk situations between baseline and week six, with no such increase among controls. Results were maintained through the week 12 follow up. The TMAP alcohol risk reduction program was feasible and highly acceptable indicated by high retention rates through the final follow up assessment and good ratings for the text message content. Reductions in multiple outcomes provide positive indications of intervention efficacy. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  13. Meditation and Cardiovascular Risk Reduction: A Scientific Statement From the American Heart Association.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levine, Glenn N; Lange, Richard A; Bairey-Merz, C Noel; Davidson, Richard J; Jamerson, Kenneth; Mehta, Puja K; Michos, Erin D; Norris, Keith; Ray, Indranill Basu; Saban, Karen L; Shah, Tina; Stein, Richard; Smith, Sidney C

    2017-09-28

    Despite numerous advances in the prevention and treatment of atherosclerosis, cardiovascular disease remains a leading cause of morbidity and mortality. Novel and inexpensive interventions that can contribute to the primary and secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease are of interest. Numerous studies have reported on the benefits of meditation. Meditation instruction and practice is widely accessible and inexpensive and may thus be a potential attractive cost-effective adjunct to more traditional medical therapies. Accordingly, this American Heart Association scientific statement systematically reviewed the data on the potential benefits of meditation on cardiovascular risk. Neurophysiological and neuroanatomical studies demonstrate that meditation can have long-standing effects on the brain, which provide some biological plausibility for beneficial consequences on the physiological basal state and on cardiovascular risk. Studies of the effects of meditation on cardiovascular risk have included those investigating physiological response to stress, smoking cessation, blood pressure reduction, insulin resistance and metabolic syndrome, endothelial function, inducible myocardial ischemia, and primary and secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease. Overall, studies of meditation suggest a possible benefit on cardiovascular risk, although the overall quality and, in some cases, quantity of study data are modest. Given the low costs and low risks of this intervention, meditation may be considered as an adjunct to guideline-directed cardiovascular risk reduction by those interested in this lifestyle modification, with the understanding that the benefits of such intervention remain to be better established. Further research on meditation and cardiovascular risk is warranted. Such studies, to the degree possible, should utilize randomized study design, be adequately powered to meet the primary study outcome, strive to achieve low drop-out rates, include long

  14. A risk assessment tool applied to the study of shale gas resources

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Veiguela, Miguel [Mining, Energy and Materials Engineering School, University of Oviedo (Spain); Hurtado, Antonio; Eguilior, Sonsoles; Recreo, Fernando [Environment Department, CIEMAT, Madrid (Spain); Roqueñi, Nieves [Mining, Energy and Materials Engineering School, University of Oviedo (Spain); Loredo, Jorge, E-mail: jloredo@uniovi.es [Mining, Energy and Materials Engineering School, University of Oviedo (Spain)

    2016-11-15

    The implementation of a risk assessment tool with the capacity to evaluate the risks for health, safety and the environment (HSE) from extraction of non-conventional fossil fuel resources by the hydraulic fracturing (fracking) technique can be a useful tool to boost development and progress of the technology and winning public trust and acceptance of this. At the early project stages, the lack of data related the selection of non-conventional gas deposits makes it difficult the use of existing approaches to risk assessment of fluids injected into geologic formations. The qualitative risk assessment tool developed in this work is based on the approach that shale gas exploitation risk is dependent on both the geologic site and the technological aspects. It follows from the Oldenburg's ‘Screening and Ranking Framework (SRF)’ developed to evaluate potential geologic carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) storage sites. These two global characteristics: (1) characteristics centered on the natural aspects of the site and (2) characteristics centered on the technological aspects of the Project, have been evaluated through user input of Property values, which define Attributes, which define the Characteristics. In order to carry out an individual evaluation of each of the characteristics and the elements of the model, the tool has been implemented in a spreadsheet. The proposed model has been applied to a site with potential for the exploitation of shale gas in Asturias (northwestern Spain) with tree different technological options to test the approach. - Highlights: • The proposed methodology is a risk assessment useful tool for shale gas projects. • The tool is addressed to the early stages of decision making processes. • The risk assessment of a site is made through a qualitative estimation. • Different weights are assigned to each specific natural and technological property. • The uncertainty associated to the current knowledge is considered.

  15. A risk assessment tool applied to the study of shale gas resources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Veiguela, Miguel; Hurtado, Antonio; Eguilior, Sonsoles; Recreo, Fernando; Roqueñi, Nieves; Loredo, Jorge

    2016-01-01

    The implementation of a risk assessment tool with the capacity to evaluate the risks for health, safety and the environment (HSE) from extraction of non-conventional fossil fuel resources by the hydraulic fracturing (fracking) technique can be a useful tool to boost development and progress of the technology and winning public trust and acceptance of this. At the early project stages, the lack of data related the selection of non-conventional gas deposits makes it difficult the use of existing approaches to risk assessment of fluids injected into geologic formations. The qualitative risk assessment tool developed in this work is based on the approach that shale gas exploitation risk is dependent on both the geologic site and the technological aspects. It follows from the Oldenburg's ‘Screening and Ranking Framework (SRF)’ developed to evaluate potential geologic carbon dioxide (CO_2) storage sites. These two global characteristics: (1) characteristics centered on the natural aspects of the site and (2) characteristics centered on the technological aspects of the Project, have been evaluated through user input of Property values, which define Attributes, which define the Characteristics. In order to carry out an individual evaluation of each of the characteristics and the elements of the model, the tool has been implemented in a spreadsheet. The proposed model has been applied to a site with potential for the exploitation of shale gas in Asturias (northwestern Spain) with tree different technological options to test the approach. - Highlights: • The proposed methodology is a risk assessment useful tool for shale gas projects. • The tool is addressed to the early stages of decision making processes. • The risk assessment of a site is made through a qualitative estimation. • Different weights are assigned to each specific natural and technological property. • The uncertainty associated to the current knowledge is considered.

  16. Chemiluminescence analyzer of NOx as a high-throughput screening tool in selective catalytic reduction of NO

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oh, Kwang Seok; Woo, Seong Ihl

    2011-01-01

    A chemiluminescence-based analyzer of NO x gas species has been applied for high-throughput screening of a library of catalytic materials. The applicability of the commercial NO x analyzer as a rapid screening tool was evaluated using selective catalytic reduction of NO gas. A library of 60 binary alloys composed of Pt and Co, Zr, La, Ce, Fe or W on Al 2 O 3 substrate was tested for the efficiency of NO x removal using a home-built 64-channel parallel and sequential tubular reactor. The NO x concentrations measured by the NO x analyzer agreed well with the results obtained using micro gas chromatography for a reference catalyst consisting of 1 wt% Pt on γ-Al 2 O 3 . Most alloys showed high efficiency at 275 °C, which is typical of Pt-based catalysts for selective catalytic reduction of NO. The screening with NO x analyzer allowed to select Pt-Ce (X) (X=1–3) and Pt–Fe (2) as the optimal catalysts for NO x removal: 73% NO x conversion was achieved with the Pt–Fe (2) alloy, which was much better than the results for the reference catalyst and the other library alloys. This study demonstrates a sequential high-throughput method of practical evaluation of catalysts for the selective reduction of NO.

  17. Use of reliability engineering tools in safety and risk assessment of nuclear facilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Raso, Amanda Laureano; Vasconcelos, Vanderley de; Marques, Raíssa Oliveira; Soares, Wellington Antonio; Mesquita, Amir Zacarias, E-mail: amandaraso@hotmail.com, E-mail: vasconv@cdtn.br, E-mail: raissaomarques@gmail.com, E-mail: soaresw@cdtn.br, E-mail: amir@cdtn.br [Centro de Desenvolvimento da Tecnologia Nuclear (CDTN/CNEN-MG), Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil). Serviço de Tecnologia de Reatores

    2017-07-01

    Safety, reliability and availability are fundamental criteria in design, construction and operation of nuclear facilities, as nuclear power plants. Deterministic and probabilistic risk assessments of such facilities are required by regulatory authorities in order to meet licensing regulations, contributing to assure safety, as well as reduce costs and environmental impacts. Probabilistic Risk Assessment has become an important part of licensing requirements of the nuclear power plants in Brazil and in the world. Risk can be defined as a qualitative and/or quantitative assessment of accident sequence frequencies (or probabilities) and their consequences. Risk management is a systematic application of management policies, procedures and practices to identify, analyze, plan, implement, control, communicate and document risks. Several tools and computer codes must be combined, in order to estimate both probabilities and consequences of accidents. Event Tree Analysis (ETA), Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), Reliability Block Diagrams (RBD), and Markov models are examples of evaluation tools that can support the safety and risk assessment for analyzing process systems, identifying potential accidents, and estimating consequences. Because of complexity of such analyzes, specialized computer codes are required, such as the reliability engineering software develop by Reliasoft® Corporation. BlockSim (FTA, RBD and Markov models), RENO (ETA and consequence assessment), Weibull++ (life data and uncertainty analysis), and Xfmea (qualitative risk assessment) are some codes that can be highlighted. This work describes an integrated approach using these tools and software to carry out reliability, safety, and risk assessment of nuclear facilities, as well as, and application example. (author)

  18. Use of reliability engineering tools in safety and risk assessment of nuclear facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raso, Amanda Laureano; Vasconcelos, Vanderley de; Marques, Raíssa Oliveira; Soares, Wellington Antonio; Mesquita, Amir Zacarias

    2017-01-01

    Safety, reliability and availability are fundamental criteria in design, construction and operation of nuclear facilities, as nuclear power plants. Deterministic and probabilistic risk assessments of such facilities are required by regulatory authorities in order to meet licensing regulations, contributing to assure safety, as well as reduce costs and environmental impacts. Probabilistic Risk Assessment has become an important part of licensing requirements of the nuclear power plants in Brazil and in the world. Risk can be defined as a qualitative and/or quantitative assessment of accident sequence frequencies (or probabilities) and their consequences. Risk management is a systematic application of management policies, procedures and practices to identify, analyze, plan, implement, control, communicate and document risks. Several tools and computer codes must be combined, in order to estimate both probabilities and consequences of accidents. Event Tree Analysis (ETA), Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), Reliability Block Diagrams (RBD), and Markov models are examples of evaluation tools that can support the safety and risk assessment for analyzing process systems, identifying potential accidents, and estimating consequences. Because of complexity of such analyzes, specialized computer codes are required, such as the reliability engineering software develop by Reliasoft® Corporation. BlockSim (FTA, RBD and Markov models), RENO (ETA and consequence assessment), Weibull++ (life data and uncertainty analysis), and Xfmea (qualitative risk assessment) are some codes that can be highlighted. This work describes an integrated approach using these tools and software to carry out reliability, safety, and risk assessment of nuclear facilities, as well as, and application example. (author)

  19. Microfinance As A Tool For Poverty Reduction: A Study Of Jordan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Žiaková M.

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to evaluate the impact of microfinance on the poor, particularly in the specific areas of economic and social development of people and their employment. The research was carried out in Jordan, a country with a well-developed microfinance sector. The results have shown that microfinance has led to an improvement in the financial and social situation of the poor, especially for female clients of microfinance institutions. Interestingly, the higher income of clients has not caused higher expenditure on their basic needs, but rather people have generated saving for their future and used the additional money for education. According to the results of the microfinance impact assessment, it can be assumed that people, particularly females, prefer to improve the social situation for future generations. Based on this finding, we consider microfinance an effective tool for breaking the vicious circles of poverty, especially in Jordan. Furthermore, microcredits have facilitated in increasing employment for the poor, mainly through self-employment. It is believed that there exists a direct connection to the future expansion of microcredits that will lead to the development of small businesses with a promising impact on employability throughout the population structure.

  20. Stress Reduction in Postcardiac Surgery Family Members: Implementation of a Postcardiac Surgery Tool Kit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breisinger, Lauren; Macci Bires, Angela; Cline, Thomas W

    The intensive care unit (ICU) can be a place of stress, anxiety, and emotional instability for both patients and families. Medical and nursing care during this acute time is patient focused, and family members are often left in the dark. Unintentional exclusion from information results in high levels of stress, anxiety, and uncertainty for families. Due to the acuity of illness, family members of cardiac surgery patients experience the highest levels of stress. Spouses may experience intense psychosomatic symptoms such as depression, anxiety, and fear for several months after the surgery. The purpose of this study was aimed at decreasing those feelings of anxiety in family members with postcardiac surgery through the use of a cardiac surgery tool kit. The study was a quality improvement project utilizing a convenience sample of 83 participants 18 years and older. Participants were asked to use the State Trait Anxiety Inventory (STAI) Form Y-1 (state anxiety) to rate their anxiety level preintervention and then again postintervention. Data were collected over a 6-month period. Descriptive data including age, education level, ethnicity, relationship, experience in the ICU, and active diagnoses of mental disorders did not affect the changes in the pre- and posttest data. A paired t test was conducted on the sample to assess changes in state anxiety, using the STAI Form Y-1. The results were statistically significant (t = 11.97, df = 81, P family members of postcardiac surgery patients.

  1. The Pink Underside: The Commercialization of Medical Risk Assessment and Decision-Making Tools for Hereditary Breast Cancer Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hesse-Biber, Sharlene; Flynn, Bailey; Farrelly, Keeva

    2018-04-01

    The growth of the Internet since the millennium has opened up a myriad of opportunities for education, particularly in medicine. Although those looking for health care information used to have to turn to a face-to-face doctor's visit, an immense library of medical advice is now available at their fingertips. The BRCA genetic predispositions (mutations of the BRCA1 and BRCA2 breast cancer genes) which expose men and women to greater risk of breast, ovarian, and other cancers can be researched extensively online. Several nonprofit organizations now offer online risk assessment and decision-making tools meant to supplement conversation with medical professionals, which in actuality are quickly replacing it. We argue here through a critical qualitative template analysis of several such tools that the discursive frameworks utilized are prone to fearmongering, commercialization, and questionable validity. Left unchecked, these assessment tools could do more harm than good in driving young women especially to take unnecessary extreme surgical action.

  2. GEO activities towards improved Geophysical monitoring. A key input to Disaster Risk Reduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Achache, J.; Rum, G.

    2007-05-01

    GEO has been established in 2005 with the main objective to put in place a Global, Coordinated, Comprehensive and Sustained System of Observing Systems (GEOSS) to serve 9 Social Benefit Areas, among which Disaster Risk Reduction. The paper will first set up the reference GEO framework, through a brief description of GEOSS key features, architectural functions and capacity building, and then will recall the value of the Geophysical observations, coming both from in situ and remote (satellite) systems, and, even more important, of their integration. GEO activities related to Geophysical monitoring and the use of related observation to foster social benefits in the Disaster Risk Reduction area will then be shortly described, together with the on-going key actions, including specific examples on key scientific/technical and data sharing aspects associated to GEOSS implementation. Special attention will be devoted on how Capacity Building strategy and activities are addressed through GEOSS development, building on infrastructure and programs under consolidation within GEO framework, such as the GEOSS Information collection and dissemination systems under development (GEONETCast, GEO Web Portal, GEO Clearinghouse) and the UN programs such as SPIDER (SPace based Information for Disaster management and Emergency Response) and UNOSAT. The paper will provide recommendations on the way forward for the implementation of Disaster Risk Management provisions as an integral part of sustainable development, also with the objective of creating within GEO a supporting framework to UNDP and World Bank activities on Risk Identification and Assessment.

  3. A Group Intervention for HIV/STI Risk Reduction among Indian Couples

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ritu Nehra

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: HIV in India is transmitted primarily by heterosexual contact. The present study sought to test the feasibility of a group HIV/STI risk reduction intervention among heterosexual couples in India. Methods: Focus groups and key informant interviews were used in 2008 to culturally tailor the intervention. Thirty sexually active and HIV/STI negative couples were enrolled and assessed regarding risk behavior and sexual barrier acceptability. Gender-concordant group sessions used cognitive behavioral strategies for HIV/STI prevention. Results: At baseline, male condom use was low (36%; no participants reported use of female condoms or vaginal gels. HIV knowledge was low; women had more HIV knowledge and more positive attitudes towards condom use than men. Post-intervention, willingness to use all barrier products (t = 10.0, P< .001 and intentions to avoid risk behavior increased (t = 5.62, P< .001. Conclusion: This study illustrates the feasibility of utilizing a group intervention to enhance HIV/STI risk reduction among Indian couples.

  4. Walking versus running for hypertension, cholesterol, and diabetes mellitus risk reduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Paul T; Thompson, Paul D

    2013-05-01

    To test whether equivalent energy expenditure by moderate-intensity (eg, walking) and vigorous-intensity exercise (eg, running) provides equivalent health benefits. We used the National Runners' (n=33 060) and Walkers' (n=15 945) Health Study cohorts to examine the effect of differences in exercise mode and thereby exercise intensity on coronary heart disease (CHD) risk factors. Baseline expenditure (metabolic equivant hours per day [METh/d]) was compared with self-reported, physician-diagnosed incident hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, diabetes mellitus, and CHD during 6.2 years follow-up. Running significantly decreased the risks for incident hypertension by 4.2% (Pdiabetes mellitus by 12.1% (Phypertension; and (3) 43.5%, 44.1%, 47.7%, and 68.2% from running, and 34.1%, 44.2% and 23.6% from walking for diabetes mellitus (walking >5.4 METh/d excluded for too few cases). The risk reductions were not significantly different for running than walking for diabetes mellitus (P=0.94), hypertension (P=0.06), or CHD (P=0.26), and only marginally greater for walking than running for hypercholesterolemia (P=0.04). Equivalent energy expenditures by moderate (walking) and vigorous (running) exercise produced similar risk reductions for hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, diabetes mellitus, and possibly CHD.

  5. Teaching medical students cancer risk reduction nutrition counseling using a multimedia program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolasa, K M; Jobe, A C; Miller, M G; Clay, M C

    1999-03-01

    There are many barriers to medical students receiving education about the linkage between nutrition and cancer, including the lack of role models and teachers and insufficient curricular time. We tested the use of a multimedia program as a possible solution to teaching diet-risk assessment and counseling skills. Images of Cancer Prevention, The Nutrition Link is a CD-ROM multimedia program that was developed and evaluated by 147 medical students. Pre-use and post-use surveys, computer log files, and recorded response sessions were used to determine the learner's 1) ease in using the program, 2) attitudes about the treatment of the content, 3) knowledge gain, and 4) attitudes about the role of physicians in nutrition assessment and counseling for cancer risk reduction. Students improved their knowledge of dietary guidelines for cancer risk reduction and made positive changes in their attitudes toward the role of physicians in dietary counseling. However, most students reported that they would not use the program unless it was required that they do so. The multimedia program was successful; it affected students' knowledge and attitudes concerning nutrition as a modifiable risk factor for some cancers. In addition, the design and delivery of the multimedia product was positively reviewed by the students for ease of access, message design, individualized instruction, and flexibility. Despite these favorable ratings, it was not clear that students would use the program unless required to do so.

  6. Nutritional Risk in Emergency-2017: A New Simplified Proposal for a Nutrition Screening Tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marcadenti, Aline; Mendes, Larissa Loures; Rabito, Estela Iraci; Fink, Jaqueline da Silva; Silva, Flávia Moraes

    2018-03-13

    There are many nutrition screening tools currently being applied in hospitals to identify risk of malnutrition. However, multivariate statistical models are not usually employed to take into account the importance of each variable included in the instrument's development. To develop and evaluate the concurrent and predictive validities of a new screening tool of nutrition risk. A prospective cohort study was developed, in which 4 nutrition screening tools were applied to all patients. Length of stay in hospital and mortality were considered to test the predictive validity, and the concurrent validity was tested by comparing the Nuritional Risk in Emergency (NRE)-2017 to the other tools. A total of 748 patients were included. The final NRE-2017 score was composed of 6 questions (advanced age, metabolic stress of the disease, decreased appetite, changing of food consistency, unintentional weight loss, and muscle mass loss) with answers yes or no. The prevalence of nutrition risk was 50.7% and 38.8% considering the cutoff points 1.0 and 1.5, respectively. The NRE-2017 showed a satisfactory power to indentify risk of malnutrition (area under the curve >0.790 for all analyses). According to the NRE-2017, patients at risk of malnutrition have twice as high relative risk of a very long hospital stay. The hazard ratio for mortality was 2.78 (1.03-7.49) when the cutoff adopted by the NRE-2017 was 1.5 points. NRE-2017 is a new, easy-to-apply nutrition screening tool which uses 6 bi-categoric features to detect the risk of malnutrition, and it presented a good concurrent and predictive validity. © 2018 American Society for Parenteral and Enteral Nutrition.

  7. [Use of hypertext as information and training tools in the prevention of occupational risk].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franco, G

    1998-01-01

    Modern medical education is based on a variety of teaching techniques, by means of which individuals learn most effectively. The availability of the new technologies together with the diffusion of personal computers is favouring the spreading of the use of hypertexts through the World Wide Web. This contribution describes 2 hypertexts ("Human Activities and Health Risk"; "Occupation, Risk and Disease. A Problem-Oriented Hypertext-Tool to Learn Occupational Medicine") and the prototype "Virtual Hospital". Assuming that prevention of health risks is based upon their knowledge, they have been created with the aim of providing users with problem-oriented tools, whose retorical aspects (content, information organization, user interface) are analysed. The "Human Activities and Health Risk" deals with the description of working activities and allows user to recognize health risks. The "Occupation, Risk and Disease. A Problem-Oriented Hypertext-Tool to Learn Occupational Medicine" embodies a case report containing the clustered information about the patient and the library including educational material (risk factors, symptoms and signs, organ system diseases, jobs, occupational risk factors, environment related diseases. The "Virtual Hospital" has been conceived assuming that an appropriate information can change workers' behaviour in hospital, where health risks can be often underevaluated. It consists of a variety of structured and unstructured information, which can be browsed by users, allowing the discovery of links and providing the awareness of the semantic relationship between related information elements (including environment, instruments, drugs, job analysis, situations at risk for health, preventive means). The "Virtual Hospital" aims making the understanding of the working situations at risk easier and more interesting, stimulating the awareness of the relationship between jobs and risks.

  8. Development of a module for Cost-Benefit analysis of risk reduction measures for natural hazards for the CHANGES-SDSS platform

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berlin, Julian; Bogaard, Thom; Van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim; Mostert, Eric; Dopheide, Emile

    2014-05-01

    Cost benefit analysis (CBA) is a well know method used widely for the assessment of investments either in the private and public sector. In the context of risk mitigation and the evaluation of risk reduction alternatives for natural hazards its use is very important to evaluate the effectiveness of such efforts in terms of avoided monetary losses. However the current method has some disadvantages related to the spatial distribution of the costs and benefits, the geographical distribution of the avoided damage and losses, the variation in areas that are benefited in terms of invested money and avoided monetary risk. Decision-makers are often interested in how the costs and benefits are distributed among different administrative units of a large area or region, so they will be able to compare and analyse the cost and benefits per administrative unit as a result of the implementation of the risk reduction projects. In this work we first examined the Cost benefit procedure for natural hazards, how the costs are assessed for several structural and non-structural risk reduction alternatives, we also examined the current problems of the method such as the inclusion of cultural and social considerations that are complex to monetize , the problem of discounting future values using a defined interest rate and the spatial distribution of cost and benefits. We also examined the additional benefits and the indirect costs associated with the implementation of the risk reduction alternatives such as the cost of having a ugly landscape (also called negative benefits). In the last part we examined the current tools and software used in natural hazards assessment with support to conduct CBA and we propose design considerations for the implementation of the CBA module for the CHANGES-SDSS Platform an initiative of the ongoing 7th Framework Programme "CHANGES of the European commission. Keywords: Risk management, Economics of risk mitigation, EU Flood Directive, resilience, prevention

  9. An integrated risk assessment tool for team-based periodontal disease management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thyvalikakath, Thankam P; Padman, Rema; Gupta, Sugandh

    2013-01-01

    Mounting evidence suggests a potential association of periodontal disease with systemic diseases such as diabetes, cardiovascular disease, cancer and stroke. The objective of this study is to develop an integrated risk assessment tool that displays a patients' risk for periodontal disease in the context of their systemic disease, social habits and oral health. Such a tool will be used by not just dental professionals but also by care providers who participate in the team-based care for chronic disease management. Displaying relationships between risk factors and its influence on the patient's general health could be a powerful educational and disease management tool for patients and clinicians. It may also improve the coordination of care provided by the provider-members of a chronic care team.

  10. Analysis of risk reduction methods for interfacing system LOCAs [loss-of-coolant accidents] at PWRs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bozoki, G.; Kohut, P.; Fitzpatrick, R.

    1988-01-01

    The Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) predicted that Interfacing System Loss-of-Coolant Accidents (ISL) events were significant contributors to risk even though they were calculated to be relatively low frequency events. However, there are substantial uncertainties involved in determining the probability and consequences of the ISL sequences. For example, the assumed valve failure modes, common cause contributions and the location of the break/leak are all uncertain and can significantly influence the predicted risk from ISL events. In order to provide more realistic estimates for the core damage frequencies (CDFs) and a reduction in the magnitude of the uncertainties, a reexamination of ISL scenarios at PWRs has been performed by Brookhaven National Laboratory. The objective of this study was to investigate the vulnerability of pressurized water reactor designs to ISLs and identify any improvements that could significantly reduce the frequency/risk of these events

  11. Tools and Methods for Risk Management in Multi-Site Engineering Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Mingwei; Nemes, Laszlo; Reidsema, Carl; Ahmed, Ammar; Kayis, Berman

    In today's highly global business environment, engineering and manufacturing projects often involve two or more geographically dispersed units or departments, research centers or companies. This paper attempts to identify the requirements for risk management in a multi-site engineering project environment, and presents a review of the state-of-the-art tools and methods that can be used to manage risks in multi-site engineering projects. This leads to the development of a risk management roadmap, which will underpin the design and implementation of an intelligent risk mapping system.

  12. Development of a risk assessment tool for volcanic urban environments: RiskScape and the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deligne, N. I.; Leonard, G.; King, A.; Wilson, G.; Wilson, T.; Lindsay, J. M.

    2013-12-01

    Auckland city, home to a third of New Zealand's population, is situated on top of the Auckland Volcanic Field (AVF), which last erupted roughly 500 years ago. Since 2008, the Determining Volcanic Risk in Auckland (DEVORA) program has investigated the geologic context of the AVF, improved timing constraints of past eruptions, explored possible tempo-spatial-volume eruption trends, and identified likely styles and hazards of future eruptions. DEVORA is now moving into development of risk and societal models for Auckland. The volcanic module of RiskScape, a multi-hazard risk assessment tool developed by Crown Research Institutes GNS Science and NIWA, will be expanded and used to model risk and impact to the built environment and population caused by a future AVF eruption. RiskScape models casualties, damage and disruption caused by various hazards, the resulting reduced functionality of assets, and associated clean up costs. A strength of RiskScape is that the effect of various mitigation strategies can be explored by strengthening asset attributes and examining resulting changes in the output risk evaluation. We present our framework for building a volcano hazard exposure module for RiskScape along with our approach for assessing asset vulnerability through the development of fragility functions. We also present the framework for engagement with regional Auckland stakeholders, including representatives of local and regional governments and utility companies, to identify complementary needs to ensure that final risk products are relevant and useable by end users.

  13. Longitudinal Evaluation of Johns Hopkins Fall Risk Assessment Tool and Nurses' Experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hur, Eun Young; Jin, Yinji; Jin, Taixian; Lee, Sun-Mi

    The Johns Hopkins Fall Risk Assessment Tool (JHFRAT) is relatively new in Korea, and it has not been fully evaluated. This study revealed that the JHFRAT had good predictive validity throughout the hospitalization period. However, 2 items (fall history and elimination patterns) on the tool were not determinants of falls in this population. Interestingly, the nurses indicated those 2 items were the most difficult items to assess and needed further training to develop the assessment skills.

  14. Does the Risk Assessment and Prediction Tool Predict Discharge Disposition After Joint Replacement?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Viktor J.; Gromov, Kirill; Lebrun, Lauren M

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Payers of health services and policymakers place a major focus on cost containment in health care. Studies have shown that early planning of discharge is essential in reducing length of stay and achieving financial benefit; tools that can help predict discharge disposition would...... populations is unknown. A low RAPT score is reported to indicate a high risk of needing any form of inpatient rehabilitation after TJA, including short-term nursing facilities. QUESTIONS/PURPOSES: This study attempts (1) to assess predictive accuracy of the RAPT on US patients undergoing total hip and knee....... Based on our findings, the risk categories in our populations should be high risk intermediate risk 7 to 10, and low risk > 10. CONCLUSIONS: The RAPT accurately predicted discharge disposition for high- and low-risk patients in our cohort. Based on our data, intermediate-risk patients should...

  15. Competing risk model for reduction in life expectancy from radiogenic latent cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davis, H.T.

    1978-01-01

    Because of the large number of persons who could potentially receive low doses of radiation as a result of a nuclear reactor accident, the number of fatalities from latent cancers is generally larger than the early, or prompt, fatalities. For this reason the latent cancer fatality risk of reactor accidents is perceived as being more important than the early fatality risk. In addition, there exists the temptation to add the latent cancer fatality risk to the early fatality risk for the purpose of comparing reactor accident risks to other risks that society is exposed to, such as automobile accidents, airplane accidents, hurricanes, etc. However, the impact on the individual, and society as a whole, due to latent cancer fatalities is significantly different from the impact produced by early fatalities. Early fatalities generally result in appreciable life shortening for the affected individual while latent cancer fatalities generally result in very limited life shortening. A mathematical model was developed to express the reduction in life expectancy due to latent radiogenic cancer as a function of dose received

  16. Substance Use and Mild Traumatic Brain Injury Risk Reduction and Prevention: A Novel Model for Treatment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer H. Olson-Madden

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Traumatic brain injury (TBI and substance use disorders (SUDs frequently co-occur. Individuals with histories of alcohol or other drug use are at greater risk for sustaining TBI, and individuals with TBI frequently misuse substances before and after injury. Further, a growing body of literature supports the relationship between comorbid histories of mild TBI (mTBI and SUDs and negative outcomes. Alcohol and other drug use are strongly associated with risk taking. Disinhibition, impaired executive function, and/or impulsivity as a result of mTBI also contribute to an individual’s proclivity towards risk-taking. Risk-taking behavior may therefore, be a direct result of SUD and/or history of mTBI, and risky behaviors may predispose individuals for subsequent injury or continued use of substances. Based on these findings, evaluation of risk-taking behavior associated with the co-occurrence of SUD and mTBI should be a standard clinical practice. Interventions aimed at reducing risky behavior among members of this population may assist in decreasing negative outcomes. A novel intervention (Substance Use and Traumatic Brain Injury Risk Reduction and Prevention (STRRP for reducing and preventing risky behaviors among individuals with co-occurring mTBI and SUD is presented. Areas for further research are discussed.

  17. Methods and tools to support real time risk-based flood forecasting - a UK pilot application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brown Emma

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Flood managers have traditionally used probabilistic models to assess potential flood risk for strategic planning and non-operational applications. Computational restrictions on data volumes and simulation times have meant that information on the risk of flooding has not been available for operational flood forecasting purposes. In practice, however, the operational flood manager has probabilistic questions to answer, which are not completely supported by the outputs of traditional, deterministic flood forecasting systems. In a collaborative approach, HR Wallingford and Deltares have developed methods, tools and techniques to extend existing flood forecasting systems with elements of strategic flood risk analysis, including probabilistic failure analysis, two dimensional flood spreading simulation and the analysis of flood impacts and consequences. This paper presents the results of the application of these new operational flood risk management tools to a pilot catchment in the UK. It discusses the problems of performing probabilistic flood risk assessment in real time and how these have been addressed in this study. It also describes the challenges of the communication of risk to operational flood managers and to the general public, and how these new methods and tools can provide risk-based supporting evidence to assist with this process.

  18. Consideration on the health risk reduction related to attainment of the new particulate matter standards in Poland: A top-down policy risk assessment approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kobza, Joanna; Pastuszka, Józef S; Gulis, Gabriel

    2016-01-01

    Policies can influence health of a population in various ways. Numerous epidemiological studies supported by toxicological investigations demonstrate a positive association between ambient concentrations of airborne particulate matter and increased adverse cardio-respiratory events, including morbidity and mortality. The aim of this paper was to present the concept of the top-down health policy risk assessment approach model developed to estimate the expected health risk reduction associated with policy aiming at attaining the new particulate matter ≤ 10 μm in diameter (PM10) standards in Poland. The top-down approach guides the analysis of causal chains from the policy to health outcomes. In this case study we tried to estimate the predicted health effects of the policy change over the past 20 years. Since Polish annual standard for PM10 changed from 50 μg/m³ in 1990 to 40 μg/m³ in 2010, we calculated the relative risk associated with decreasing PM10 in diameter to 10 μg/m3 in the annual level of PM10 for 6 adverse health effects. The relative risk slightly decreased for almost all adverse health effects, which means that the relative decrease in the incidence of health effects from the baseline incidence should range from about 0.5-0.6% for heart disease admissions to > 1% for respiratory admissions. The obtained results indicate that implementation of the new ambient air standards could influence improvement of the health status of Polish population. A top-down policy health risk assessment model can be one of the main tools in this process, providing harmonized guidance how to seek evidence-based information, which could serve policy-makers. This work is available in Open Access model and licensed under a CC BY-NC 3.0 PL license.

  19. Improvement in spine bone density and reduction in risk of vertebral fractures during treatment with antiresorptive drugs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cummings, Steven R; Karpf, David B; Harris, Fran; Genant, Harry K; Ensrud, Kristine; LaCroix, Andrea Z; Black, Dennis M

    2002-03-01

    To estimate how much the improvement in bone mass accounts for the reduction in risk of vertebral fracture that has been observed in randomized trials of antiresorptive treatments for osteoporosis. After a systematic search, we conducted a meta-analysis of 12 trials to describe the relation between improvement in spine bone mineral density and reduction in risk of vertebral fracture in postmenopausal women. We also used logistic models to estimate the proportion of the reduction in risk of vertebral fracture observed with alendronate in the Fracture Intervention Trial that was due to improvement in bone mineral density. Across the 12 trials, a 1% improvement in spine bone mineral density was associated with a 0.03 decrease (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.02 to 0.05) in the relative risk (RR) of vertebral fracture. The reductions in risk were greater than predicted from improvement in bone mineral density; for example, the model estimated that treatments predicted to reduce fracture risk by 20% (RR = 0.80), based on improvement in bone mineral density, actually reduce the risk of fracture by about 45% (RR = 0.55). In the Fracture Intervention Trial, improvement in spine bone mineral density explained 16% (95% CI: 11% to 27%) of the reduction in the risk of vertebral fracture with alendronate. Improvement in spine bone mineral density during treatment with antiresorptive drugs accounts for a predictable but small part of the observed reduction in the risk of vertebral fracture.

  20. Assess/Mitigate Risk through the Use of Computer-Aided Software Engineering (CASE) Tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguilar, Michael L.

    2013-01-01

    The NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) was requested to perform an independent assessment of the mitigation of the Constellation Program (CxP) Risk 4421 through the use of computer-aided software engineering (CASE) tools. With the cancellation of the CxP, the assessment goals were modified to capture lessons learned and best practices in the use of CASE tools. The assessment goal was to prepare the next program for the use of these CASE tools. The outcome of the assessment is contained in this document.

  1. Diagnostic Accuracy of Fall Risk Assessment Tools in People With Diabetic Peripheral Neuropathy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pohl, Patricia S.; Mahnken, Jonathan D.; Kluding, Patricia M.

    2012-01-01

    Background Diabetic peripheral neuropathy affects nearly half of individuals with diabetes and leads to increased fall risk. Evidence addressing fall risk assessment for these individuals is lacking. Objective The purpose of this study was to identify which of 4 functional mobility fall risk assessment tools best discriminates, in people with diabetic peripheral neuropathy, between recurrent “fallers” and those who are not recurrent fallers. Design A cross-sectional study was conducted. Setting The study was conducted in a medical research university setting. Participants The participants were a convenience sample of 36 individuals between 40 and 65 years of age with diabetic peripheral neuropathy. Measurements Fall history was assessed retrospectively and was the criterion standard. Fall risk was assessed using the Functional Reach Test, the Timed “Up & Go” Test, the Berg Balance Scale, and the Dynamic Gait Index. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative likelihood ratios, and overall diagnostic accuracy were calculated for each fall risk assessment tool. Receiver operating characteristic curves were used to estimate modified cutoff scores for each fall risk assessment tool; indexes then were recalculated. Results Ten of the 36 participants were classified as recurrent fallers. When traditional cutoff scores were used, the Dynamic Gait Index and Functional Reach Test demonstrated the highest sensitivity at only 30%; the Dynamic Gait Index also demonstrated the highest overall diagnostic accuracy. When modified cutoff scores were used, all tools demonstrated improved sensitivity (80% or 90%). Overall diagnostic accuracy improved for all tests except the Functional Reach Test; the Timed “Up & Go” Test demonstrated the highest diagnostic accuracy at 88.9%. Limitations The small sample size and retrospective fall history assessment were limitations of the study. Conclusions Modified cutoff scores improved diagnostic accuracy for 3 of 4 fall risk

  2. Sexual risk-reduction strategies among HIV-infected men receiving ART in Kibera, Nairobi.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ragnarsson, Anders; Thorson, Anna; Dover, Paul; Carter, Jane; Ilako, Festus; Indalo, Dorcas; Ekstrom, Anna Mia

    2011-03-01

    This paper explores motivational factors and barriers to sexual behaviour change among men receiving antiretroviral treatment (ART). Twenty in-depth interviews were undertaken with male patients enrolled at the African Medical and Research Foundation clinic in Africa's largest urban informal settlement, Kibera in Nairobi, Kenya. All participants experienced prolonged and severe illness prior to the initiation of ART. Fear of symptom relapse was the main trigger for sexual behaviour change. Partner reduction was reported as a first option for behaviour change since this decision could be made by the individual. Condom use was perceived as more difficult as it had to be negotiated with female partners. Cultural norms regarding expectations for reproduction and marriage were not supportive of sexual risk-reduction strategies. Thus, local sociocultural contexts of HIV-infected people must be incorporated into the contextual adaptation and design of ART programmes and services as they have an over-riding influence on sexual behaviour and programme effectiveness. Also, HIV-prevention interventions need to address both personal, micro- and macro-level factors of behaviour to encourage individuals to take on sexual risk-reduction strategies. In order to achieve the anticipated preventive effect of ART, these issues are important for the donor community and policy-makers, who are the major providers of ART programme support within weak health systems in sub-Saharan Africa.

  3. Closed reduction of slipped capital femoral epiphysis: high-risk factor for avascular necrosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kitano, Toshio; Nakagawa, Keisuke; Wada, Mayuko; Moriyama, Michiko

    2015-07-01

    How should we treat acute/unstable slipped capital femoral epiphysis (SCFE) without the development of avascular necrosis (AVN)? To answer this question, we investigated the risk factors of AVN development after SCFE. Seventy-six hips of 64 patients were classified using two kinds of classification systems, Loder's classification based on instability and the conventional classification based on the duration of symptom, because both classifications are related to AVN development. Of 21 unstable SCFEs, seven hips developed AVN. Of 35 hips defined as acute or acute on chronic, nine hips developed AVN. Two stable SCFEs of Loder's classification developed AVN, one was acute and the other was acute on chronic. No hips of chronic SCFE developed AVN. The factor that had influenced AVN development was only closed reduction, whether purposefully or inadvertently, in an acute or unstable SCFE. On the basis of the findings of this study, one should not embark on any modality of closed reduction for an unstable or acute form of SCFE, as there is a high risk for occurrence of AVN. For the same reason, a traction table should not be used for SCFE fixation, so as to avoid an inadvertent reduction or force that can lead to AVN.

  4. Clinical evaluation of a commercial orthopedic metal artifact reduction tool for CT simulations in radiation therapy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li Hua; Noel, Camille; Chen, Haijian; Harold Li, H.; Low, Daniel; Moore, Kevin; Klahr, Paul; Michalski, Jeff; Gay, Hiram A.; Thorstad, Wade; Mutic, Sasa [Department of Radiation Oncology, Washington University, St. Louis, Missouri 63110 (United States); Department of Radiation Oncology, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California 90095 (United States); Department of Radiation Oncology, University of California San Diego, San Diego, California 92093 (United States); Philips Healthcare System, Cleveland, Ohio 44143 (United States); Department of Radiation Oncology, Washington University, St. Louis, Missouri 63110 (United States)

    2012-12-15

    Purpose: Severe artifacts in kilovoltage-CT simulation images caused by large metallic implants can significantly degrade the conspicuity and apparent CT Hounsfield number of targets and anatomic structures, jeopardize the confidence of anatomical segmentation, and introduce inaccuracies into the radiation therapy treatment planning process. This study evaluated the performance of the first commercial orthopedic metal artifact reduction function (O-MAR) for radiation therapy, and investigated its clinical applications in treatment planning. Methods: Both phantom and clinical data were used for the evaluation. The CIRS electron density phantom with known physical (and electron) density plugs and removable titanium implants was scanned on a Philips Brilliance Big Bore 16-slice CT simulator. The CT Hounsfield numbers of density plugs on both uncorrected and O-MAR corrected images were compared. Treatment planning accuracy was evaluated by comparing simulated dose distributions computed using the true density images, uncorrected images, and O-MAR corrected images. Ten CT image sets of patients with large hip implants were processed with the O-MAR function and evaluated by two radiation oncologists using a five-point score for overall image quality, anatomical conspicuity, and CT Hounsfield number accuracy. By utilizing the same structure contours delineated from the O-MAR corrected images, clinical IMRT treatment plans for five patients were computed on the uncorrected and O-MAR corrected images, respectively, and compared. Results: Results of the phantom study indicated that CT Hounsfield number accuracy and noise were improved on the O-MAR corrected images, especially for images with bilateral metal implants. The {gamma} pass rates of the simulated dose distributions computed on the uncorrected and O-MAR corrected images referenced to those of the true densities were higher than 99.9% (even when using 1% and 3 mm distance-to-agreement criterion), suggesting that dose

  5. Constructing post-carbon institutions: Assessing EU carbon reduction efforts through an institutional risk governance approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    LaBelle, Michael

    2012-01-01

    This paper examines three different governance approaches the European Union (EU) and Member States (MS) are relying on to reach a low carbon economy by 2050. Current governance literature explains the operational methods of the EU's new governance approach to reduce carbon emissions. However, the literature neglects to account for the perceived risks that inhibit the roll-out of new low carbon technology. This article, through a novel approach, uses a grounded theoretical framework to reframe traditional risk literature and provides a connection to governance literature in order to assess the ability of EU governance mechanisms to reduce carbon emissions. The empirical research is based on responses from European energy stakeholders who participated in a Delphi method discussion and in semi-structured interviews; these identified three essential requirements for carbon emissions to be reduced to near zero by 2050: (1) an integrated European energy network, (2) carbon pricing and (3) demand reduction. These features correspond to institutionalized responses by the EU and MS: the Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER); European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) and energy efficiency directives and policies integrated into existing MS institutions. The theoretical and empirical findings suggest that governance by facilitation (energy efficiency) fails to induce significant investment and new policy approaches and cannot be relied on to achieve requisite reductions in demand. Governance by negotiation (ACER) and governance by hierarchy (EU ETS) do reduce risks and may encourage the necessary technological uptake. The term ‘risk governance’ is used to explain the important role governance plays in reducing risks and advancing new technology and thereby lowering carbon emissions in the energy sector. - Highlights: ► This article assesses the role of EU institutions in reducing carbon emissions by 2050. ► Empirical research is based on Delphi

  6. Reduction of air pollutants - a tool for control of atmospheric corrosion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kucera, V.

    2003-12-01

    Full Text Available In most urban areas in Europe and Northern America serious corrosion impacts on buildings and cultural monuments have been caused by emissions of pollutants. The rapidly increasing pollution levels in many of the developing countries also exert a serious threat to materials. Beside the very important role of SO2 also the direct or synergistic effect of NOx and O3, the particulates and rain acidity may contribute in an important way to materials degradation. Results from extensive international field exposure programs i.e. within the UN/ECE have enabled development of dose-response relations which describe the effect of dry and wet deposition of pollutants on corrosion of different material groups. In most of the industrialized countries decreasing trends of sulphur and nitrogen pollutants and of acidity of precipitation have resulted in decreased corrosion rates. The concept of acceptable levels of pollutants is a useful tool in planning of abatement strategies and for defining of conditions for a suitable development in the field of corrosion of constructions in the atmosphere.

    La contaminación de la atmósfera ha sido la principal razón del grave deterioro de las edificaciones y de los monumentos en numerosas ciudades de Europa y Norteamérica. De otro lado, el acelerado incremento de los niveles de contaminación en los países menos desarrollados está poniendo en peligro la estabilidad de los materiales utilizados. Además del importante papel que en este sentido juega el SO2, la acción directa o el efecto sinérgico de los NOx y el O3, al igual que el material particulado y las lluvias acidas contribuyen a agravar el problema. Resultados de vastos programas internacionales de investigación como, por ejemplo, el UN/ECE, han permitido desarrollar relaciones dosis-respuesta que describen el efecto de la deposición de los contaminantes sobre la corrosión de

  7. Venous Thromboembolism – Risk Assessment Tool and Thromboprophylaxis Policy: A National Survey

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Khan, MI

    2017-01-01

    Venous Thromboembolic (VTE) events in hospitalised patients are associated with significant mortality and morbidity and a major economic burden on the health service. It is well established in the literature that active implementation of a mandatory risk assessment tool and thromboprophylaxis policy reduces the incidence of hospital associated thrombosis (HAT). This study examines the utilization of a VTE risk assessment tool and thromboprophylaxis (TP) policy in Irish hospitals that manage acute admissions. A national survey was distributed to forty acute hospitals throughout Ireland. The response rate was 78% (31\\/40). The results showed that only 26% (n=8\\/31) of acute hospitals in Ireland have a local implemented TP policy. Six (75%) of these eight had a risk assessment tool in conjunction with the TP policy. All respondents who did not report to have a TP policy and risk assessment tool agreed that they should implement VTE prevention policy at their hospital. Based on the data from this survey and evidence from the effectiveness of the VTE prevention programme introduced in the United Kingdom, there is a need for a national risk assessment and thromboprophylaxis policy in Ireland. This change in practice would have the potential to prevent or reduce the morbidity and mortality associated with hospital acquired thrombosis

  8. Fracture risk assessment in postmenopausal women with diabetes: comparison between DeFRA and FRAX tools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonaccorsi, Gloria; Messina, Carmelo; Cervellati, Carlo; Maietti, Elisa; Medini, Matilde; Rossini, Maurizio; Massari, Leo; Greco, Pantaleo

    2018-05-01

    This study aimed to compare the performance of Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) with that of Derived FRAX (DeFRA) in estimating fracture risk in a cohort of type-2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) postmenopausal women. One hundred nineteen T2DM postmenopausal women and 118 consecutive healthy postmenopausal women were enrolled. Fracture risk was assessed with FRAX (adjusted or non- for trabecular bone score, TBS) and DeFRA. Bone mineral density (BMD) and TBS were evaluated by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA). The outcome was the presence of vertebral/non-vertebral fragility fractures (FFs). T2DM women showed higher spinal BMD T-score (p < .05), but lower TBS (p < .05), than controls. Diabetic patients had higher prevalence of FFs compared to controls (p < .05), but no significant difference were found in the scores of any of the predictor tools. Differently, in the T2DM group, the scores of DeFRA, FRAX and adjusted-FRAX were significantly (p < .01 for all) higher in fractured compared with non-fractured women. DeFRA showed the best discriminative power among all fracture risk predictor tools (area under curves: DeFra: 0.89; adjusted FRAX: 0.80; non-adjusted FRAX: 0.73). In summary, all fracture risk assessment tools appeared to be effective in predicting bone fractures in T2DM postmenopausal women, with DeFRA showing a slightly better diagnostic accuracy.

  9. Assessing urban potential flooding risk and identifying effective risk-reduction measures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cherqui, Frédéric; Belmeziti, Ali; Granger, Damien; Sourdril, Antoine; Le Gauffre, Pascal

    2015-05-01

    Flood protection is one of the traditional functions of any drainage system, and it remains a major issue in many cities because of economic and health impact. Heavy rain flooding has been well studied and existing simulation software can be used to predict and improve level of protection. However, simulating minor flooding remains highly complex, due to the numerous possible causes related to operational deficiencies or negligent behaviour. According to the literature, causes of blockages vary widely from one case to another: it is impossible to provide utility managers with effective recommendations on how to improve the level of protection. It is therefore vital to analyse each context in order to define an appropriate strategy. Here we propose a method to represent and assess the flooding risk, using GIS and data gathered during operation and maintenance. Our method also identifies potential management responses. The approach proposed aims to provide decision makers with clear and comprehensible information. Our method has been successfully applied to the Urban Community of Bordeaux (France) on 4895 interventions related to flooding recorded during the 2009-2011 period. Results have shown the relative importance of different issues, such as human behaviour (grease, etc.) or operational deficiencies (roots, etc.), and lead to identify corrective and proactive. This study also confirms that blockages are not always directly due to the network itself and its deterioration. Many causes depend on environmental and operating conditions on the network and often require collaboration between municipal departments in charge of roads, green spaces, etc. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Risk factor: a tool for risk administration; Fator de risco: uma ferramenta para gestao de risco

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ferraco Junior, Darcy; Bobsin, Marco Aurelio; Araujo, Mirian Peres de; Cabral, Simone Dias [PETROBRAS, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2008-07-01

    The risk management has been processing in an evolutionary form through the years. Derived from military development, nowadays it encircles the industries and constitutes in one of the administration elements of large and medium corporations. At the Centro de Pesquisas Leopoldo Miguez de Mello (CENPES) the matter of risk management has passed through an expressive change with the implementation of the raising of aspects and impacts (LAI) and the utilization of the risk factor as indicator of the risk administration in the managements of the research center. (author)

  11. Clinical utility of rosuvastatin and other statins for cardiovascular risk reduction among the elderly

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sydney B Long

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Sydney B Long, Michael J Blaha, Roger S Blumenthal, Erin D MichosJohns Hopkins Ciccarone Center for the Prevention of Heart Disease, Baltimore, MD, USAAbstract: Age is one of the strongest predictors of cardiovascular disease (CVD risk. Treatment with statins can significantly reduce CVD events and mortality in both primary and secondary prevention. Yet despite the high CVD risk among the elderly, there is underutilization of statins in this population (ie, the treatment-risk paradox. Few studies have investigated the use of statins in the elderly, particularly for primary prevention and, as a result, guidelines for treating the elderly are limited. This is likely due to: uncertainties of risk assessment in older individuals where the predictive value of individual risk factors is decreased; the need to balance the benefits of primary prevention with the risks of polypharmacy, health care costs, and adverse medication effects in a population with decreased life expectancy; the complexity of treating patients with many other comorbidities; and increasingly difficult social and economic concerns. As life expectancy increases and the total elderly population grows, these issues become increasingly important. JUPITER (Justification for the Use of statins in Prevention: an Intervention Trial Evaluating Rosuvastatin is the largest primary prevention statin trial to date and enrolled a substantial number of elderly adults. Among the 5695 JUPITER participants ≥70 years of age, the absolute CVD risk reduction associated with rosuvastatin was actually greater than for younger participants. The implications of this JUPITER subanalysis and the broader role of statins among older adults is the subject of this review.Keywords: JUPITER, rosuvastatin, elderly, risk

  12. Reduction of Risk Factors in Patients with Behavioral Dysphonia After Vocal Group Therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, Wégina Jordâna Nascimento da; Lopes, Leonardo Wanderley; Macedo, Anny Elizabety Ramalho de; Costa, Denise Batista da; Almeida, Anna Alice Figueiredo de

    2017-01-01

    The origin and development of dysphonia, particularly behavioral dysphonia, is associated with several risk factors. Here, we verified the effectiveness of group therapy in reducing the risk factors, and established the association between risk factors and sex, age, profession, and diagnosis of laryngeal disorders in patients with behavioral dysphonia. This is a descriptive, quantitative, field intervention study. Participants (n = 26, adult patients of both sexes), with a diagnosis of behavioral dysphonia, received group therapy intervention. Data for risk factors were collected pre- and posttherapy using the Vocal Screening Protocol. The data were analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistics (Student t test, chi-squared test or Spearman correlation test). The majority (80.8%, n = 21) of patients were female, 65.4% (n = 17) were not in a vocal profession, and 42.3% (n = 11) presented with a lesion in the membranous portion of the vocal fold. The number of personal risk factors decreased after group therapy (P = 0.04). In addition, age was correlated with total (P = 0.001), environmental (P = 0.002), and personal (P = 0.003) vocal risk factors posttherapy. This study revealed an association between the reduction of personal risk factors and vocal group therapy, and a correlation between age and total, environmental, and personal vocal risk factors posttherapy. Thus, maintenance and origins of the behaviors that modify the behavioral aspects of the participants directly influence the production of individual vocal habits. Copyright © 2017 The Voice Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Minority Households' Willingness-to-Pay for Public and Private Wildfire Risk Reduction in Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonzalez-Caban, A.; Sanchez, J. J.

    2017-12-01

    The purpose of this work is to estimate willingness-to-pay (WTP) for minority (African-American and Hispanic) homeowners in Florida for private and public wildfire risk reduction programs and also to test for differences in response between the two groups. A random parameter logit and latent class models allowed us to determine if there is difference in wildfire mitigation program preferences, whether WTP is higher for public or private actions for wildfire risk reduction, and whether households with personal experience and who perceive that they live in higher-risk areas have significantly higher WTP. We also compare FL minority homeowners' WTP values with Florida original homeowners' estimates. Results suggest that FL minority homeowners are willing to invest in public programs, with African-Americans WTP values at a higher rate than Hispanics. In addition, the highest priority for cost sharing funds would go to low-income homeowners, especially to cost-share private actions on their own land. These results may help fire managers optimize allocation of scarce cost-sharing funds for public versus private actions.

  14. NASA Propulsion Concept Studies and Risk Reduction Activities for Resource Prospector Lander

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trinh, Huu P.; Williams, Hunter; Burnside, Chris

    2015-01-01

    The trade study has led to the selection of propulsion concept with the lowest cost and net lowest risk -Government-owned, flight qualified components -Meet mission requirements although the configuration is not optimized. Risk reduction activities have provided an opportunity -Implement design improvements while development with the early-test approach. -Gain knowledge on the operation and identify operation limit -Data to anchor analytical models for future flight designs; The propulsion system cold flow tests series have provided valuable data for future design. -The pressure surge from the system priming and waterhammer within component operation limits. -Enable to optimize the ullage volume to reduce the propellant tank mass; RS-34 hot fire tests have successfully demonstrated of using the engines for the RP mission -No degradation of performance due to extended storage life of the hardware. -Enable to operate the engine for RP flight mission scenarios, outside of the qualification regime. -Provide extended data for the thermal and GNC designs. Significant progress has been made on NASA propulsion concept design and risk reductions for Resource Prospector lander.

  15. Cost-effectiveness analysis of risk reduction at nuclear power plants: What have we learned from experience

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lochard, J.; Pages, P.

    1984-01-01

    Within the field of risk management techniques, cost-effectiveness analysis of risk reduction is now recognized as an adequate method for evaluating and defining the optimal allocation of protection and safety resources within large industrial systems. The paper considers some of the issues that arise in connection with cost-effectiveness analysis of risk reduction at nuclear power stations. Particular attention is called to both the interdependence between criteria that characterize risk reduction problems and the resulting aggregation and weighting procedures needed when the multidimensionality of criteria is explicitly taken into account. The discussion of these problems is illustrated with results of case studies on both public and occupational risk reduction at French PWRs during normal operation. (author)

  16. Effectiveness of Methadone in Reduction of High Risk Behaviors in Clients of MMT Center

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F Ehsani

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Addiction as a social, health problem with its specific complications threatens societies. High risk behaviors such as violence, self mutilation, tattooing, shared injections and unprotected sex behaviors are some of the problems in addicts that need to be treated. One of these treatments is methadone therapy. The purpose of this study was to evaluate effectiveness of methadone in prevention or reduction of high risk behaviors in clients of a MMT center of Shaheed Sadoughi University of medical sciences of Yazd. Methods: This study was done on 93 clients of a MMT center.Questionnaire for this study included items from MAP and questions about some other risky behaviors. This questionnaire was completed at onset of treatment and 6 months after. Data was analyzed with SPSS software program Results: 89.2% of participants were married and 10.8% were single. 63.5% of them were in the20-40 years age group. Most commonly abused substances were heroin and opium. Before onset of treatment, 37.6% of participants had history of imprisonment, 35.5% had shared injections, 32.3%had had unprotected sex, 22.6%had tattooing and 5.4%had mutilated their own selves. Only 36.6% didn’t have any high risk behavior. These behaviors were more common in heroin users and in the20-40 years age group. After onset of treatment and during 6 month of MMT, 86% of clients didn’t have any risky behavior. Only 14%of them continued to have unsafe sex behaviors Conclusion: Addiction can cause high risk behaviors. Data in this paper suggests that young age, heroin use, low education level and no or inadequate information about addictive substances and their consequences are effective and important factors that cause high risk behaviors. Treatment of addicts with methadone maintenance therapy plays an important role in reduction of risky behaviors. Development of appropriate and more MMT centers are recommended.

  17. A Screening Tool for Assessing Alcohol Use Risk among Medically Vulnerable Youth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, Sharon; Dedeoglu, Fatma; Gaffin, Jonathan M; Garvey, Katharine C; Harstad, Elizabeth; MacGinnitie, Andrew; Rufo, Paul A; Huang, Qian; Ziemnik, Rosemary E; Wisk, Lauren E; Weitzman, Elissa R

    2016-01-01

    In an effort to reduce barriers to screening for alcohol use in pediatric primary care, the National Institute on Alcoholism and Alcohol Abuse (NIAAA) developed a two-question Youth Alcohol Screening Tool derived from population-based survey data. It is unknown whether this screening tool, designed for use with general populations, accurately identifies risk among youth with chronic medical conditions (YCMC). This growing population, which comprises nearly one in four youth in the US, faces a unique constellation of drinking-related risks. To validate the NIAAA Youth Alcohol Screening Tool in a population of YCMC, we performed a cross-sectional validation study with a sample of 388 youth ages 9-18 years presenting for routine subspecialty care at a large children's hospital for type 1 diabetes, persistent asthma, cystic fibrosis, inflammatory bowel disease, or juvenile idiopathic arthritis. Participants self-administered the NIAAA Youth Alcohol Screening Tool and the Diagnostic Interview Schedule for Children as a criterion standard measure of alcohol use disorders (AUD). Receiver operating curve analysis was used to determine cut points for identifying youth at moderate and highest risk for an AUD. Nearly one third of participants (n = 118; 30.4%) reported alcohol use in the past year; 86.4% (106) of past year drinkers did not endorse any AUD criteria, 6.8% (n = 8) of drinkers endorsed a single criterion, and 6.8% of drinkers met criteria for an AUD. Using the NIAAA tool, optimal cut points found to identify youth at moderate and highest risk for an AUD were ≥ 6 and ≥12 drinking days in the past year, respectively. The NIAAA Youth Alcohol Screening Tool is highly efficient for detecting alcohol use and discriminating disordered use among YCMC. This brief screen appears feasible for use in specialty care to ascertain alcohol-related risk that may impact adversely on health status and disease management.

  18. A Screening Tool for Assessing Alcohol Use Risk among Medically Vulnerable Youth.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sharon Levy

    Full Text Available In an effort to reduce barriers to screening for alcohol use in pediatric primary care, the National Institute on Alcoholism and Alcohol Abuse (NIAAA developed a two-question Youth Alcohol Screening Tool derived from population-based survey data. It is unknown whether this screening tool, designed for use with general populations, accurately identifies risk among youth with chronic medical conditions (YCMC. This growing population, which comprises nearly one in four youth in the US, faces a unique constellation of drinking-related risks.To validate the NIAAA Youth Alcohol Screening Tool in a population of YCMC, we performed a cross-sectional validation study with a sample of 388 youth ages 9-18 years presenting for routine subspecialty care at a large children's hospital for type 1 diabetes, persistent asthma, cystic fibrosis, inflammatory bowel disease, or juvenile idiopathic arthritis. Participants self-administered the NIAAA Youth Alcohol Screening Tool and the Diagnostic Interview Schedule for Children as a criterion standard measure of alcohol use disorders (AUD. Receiver operating curve analysis was used to determine cut points for identifying youth at moderate and highest risk for an AUD.Nearly one third of participants (n = 118; 30.4% reported alcohol use in the past year; 86.4% (106 of past year drinkers did not endorse any AUD criteria, 6.8% (n = 8 of drinkers endorsed a single criterion, and 6.8% of drinkers met criteria for an AUD. Using the NIAAA tool, optimal cut points found to identify youth at moderate and highest risk for an AUD were ≥ 6 and ≥12 drinking days in the past year, respectively.The NIAAA Youth Alcohol Screening Tool is highly efficient for detecting alcohol use and discriminating disordered use among YCMC. This brief screen appears feasible for use in specialty care to ascertain alcohol-related risk that may impact adversely on health status and disease management.

  19. Development of risk assessment simulation tool for optimal control of a low probability-high consequence disaster

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yotsumoto, Hiroki; Yoshida, Kikuo; Genchi, Hiroshi

    2011-01-01

    In order to control low probability-high consequence disaster which causes huge social and economic damage, it is necessary to develop simultaneous risk assessment simulation tool based on the scheme of disaster risk including diverse effects of primary disaster and secondary damages. We propose the scheme of this risk simulation tool. (author)

  20. Building the evidence base for stigma and discrimination-reduction programming in Thailand: development of tools to measure healthcare stigma and discrimination

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kriengkrai Srithanaviboonchai

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background HIV-related stigma and discrimination (S&D are recognized as key impediments to controlling the HIV epidemic. S&D are particularly detrimental within health care settings because people who are at risk of HIV and people living with HIV (PLHIV must seek services from health care facilities. Standardized tools and monitoring systems are needed to inform S&D reduction efforts, measure progress, and monitor trends. This article describes the processes followed to adapt and refine a standardized global health facility staff S&D questionnaire for the context of Thailand and develop a similar questionnaire measuring health facility stigma experienced by PLHIV. Both questionnaires are currently being used for the routine monitoring of HIV-related S&D in the Thai healthcare system. Methods The questionnaires were adapted through a series of consultative meetings, pre-testing, and revision. The revised questionnaires then underwent field testing, and the data and field experiences were analyzed. Results Two brief questionnaires were finalized and are now being used by the Department of Disease Control to collect national routine data for monitoring health facility S&D: 1 a health facility staff questionnaire that collects data on key drivers of S&D in health facilities (i.e., fear of HIV infection, attitudes toward PLHIV and key populations, and health facility policy and environment and observed enacted stigma and 2 a brief PLHIV questionnaire that captures data on experienced discriminatory practices at health care facilities. Conclusions This effort provides an example of how a country can adapt global S&D measurement tools to a local context for use in national routine monitoring. Such data helps to strengthen the national response to HIV through the provision of evidence to shape S&D-reduction programming.

  1. EIF onshore discharges : a quantitative environmental risk assessment tool for onshore facilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hagemann, R.; Smit, M.G.D.; Frost, T.K. [Statoil ASA, Stavenger (Norway); Firth, S.K. [Firth Consultants, Bristol (United Kingdom); Stone, K. [WorleyParsons, Victoria, BC (Canada)

    2009-07-01

    The proper management of environmental risk is a key requirement of StatoilHydro's governing documents and is a key consideration in all phases of StatoilHydro's activities. In order to help manage risks in an effective and sustainable manner, StatoilHydro has led the development of the environmental impact factor (EIF) risk assessment tool. The EIF is utilized by all operators on the Norwegian Continental Shelf for reporting continuous improvements in produced water management to the authorities. The EIF concept has also been applied to evaluate environmental risk from air emissions, offshore oil spills and drilling discharges, discharges from onshore facilities to sea and discharges and spills from onshore installations. In order to identify the remaining hypothetical risk from a new facility, optimized with respect to environmental protection, this paper presented a case study, where the tool was applied to an oil sands steam assisted gravity drainage facility in Alberta. The paper discussed the EIF model and results of the case study. It was concluded that as a result of the use of generic principles for environmental risk assessment, combined with databases with parameter information for common soil and aquifer types, the EIF tool could be applied to any site ranging from wetlands to deserts. 5 refs., 2 tabs., 3 figs.

  2. Validation of an early childhood caries risk assessment tool in a low-income Hispanic population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Custodio-Lumsden, Christie L; Wolf, Randi L; Contento, Isobel R; Basch, Charles E; Zybert, Patricia A; Koch, Pamela A; Edelstein, Burton L

    2016-03-01

    There is a recognized need for valid risk assessment tools for use by both dental and nondental personnel to identify young children at risk for, or with, precavitated stages of early childhood caries (i.e., early stage decalcifications or white spot lesions).The aim of this study is to establish concurrent criterion validity of "MySmileBuddy" (MSB), a novel technology-assisted ECC risk assessment and behavioral intervention tool against four measures of ECC activity: semi-quantitative assays of salivary mutans streptococci levels, visible quantity of dental plaque, visual evidence of enamel decalcifications, and cavitation status (none, ECC, severe ECC). One hundred eight children 2-6 years of age presenting to a pediatric dental clinic were recruited from a predominantly Spanish-speaking, low-income, urban population. All children received a comprehensive oral examination and saliva culture for assessment of ECC indicators. Their caregivers completed the iPad-based MSB assessment in its entirety (15-20 minutes). MSB calculated both diet and comprehensive ECC risk scores. Associations between all variables were determined using ordinal logistic regression. MSB diet risk scores were significantly positively associated with salivary mutans (P valid risk assessment tool for identifying children with early precursors of cavitations but does not add value in identifying children with extant lesions. © 2015 American Association of Public Health Dentistry.

  3. Towards Improved Linkage of Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation in Health: A Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banwell, Nicola; Rutherford, Shannon; Mackey, Brendan; Chu, Cordia

    2018-01-01

    Climate change and climate-sensitive disasters significantly impact health. Linking Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) and Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) is essential for addressing these ever present, complex and increasing risks. Recent calls have been made to build these links in health. However, there is a need to clearly articulate why linking DRR and CCA is important in health. Furthermore, little is known about how DRR and CCA should be linked in health. By extensively examining relevant literature, this review presents the current state of knowledge of linking DRR and CCA in health. This includes the potential for maximising conceptual synergies such as building resilience, and reducing vulnerability and risk. Additionally, technical and operational synergies are identified to link DRR and CCA in health, including: policy, Early Warning Systems, vulnerability and risk assessment, health systems strengthening, infrastructure resilience, disaster preparedness and response, and health impact pathways. Public health actors have a central role in building these links due to their expertise, work functions, and experience in addressing complex health risks. The review concludes with recommendations for future research, including how to better link DRR and CCA in health; and the opportunities, challenges and enablers to build and sustain these links. PMID:29670057

  4. SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario--Executive Summary and Introduction: Chapter A in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, Stephanie L.; Jones, Lucile M.; Miller, Kevin H.; Porter, Keith A.; Wein, Anne; Wilson, Rick I.; Bahng, Bohyun; Barberopoulou, Aggeliki; Borrero, Jose C.; Brosnan, Deborah M.; Bwarie, John T.; Geist, Eric L.; Johnson, Laurie A.; Kirby, Stephen H.; Knight, William R.; Long, Kate; Lynett, Patrick; Mortensen, Carl E.; Nicolsky, Dmitry J.; Perry, Suzanne C.; Plumlee, Geoffrey S.; Real, Charles R.; Ryan, Kenneth; Suleimani, Elena; Thio, Hong Kie; Titov, Vasily V.; Whitmore, Paul M.; Wood, Nathan J.

    2013-01-01

    The Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) tsunami scenario depicts a hypothetical but plausible tsunami created by an earthquake offshore from the Alaska Peninsula and its impacts on the California coast. The tsunami scenario is a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the California Geological Survey, the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services (Cal OES), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), other Federal, State, County, and local agencies, private companies, and academic and other institutions. This document presents evidence for past tsunamis, the scientific basis for the source, likely inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental and ecological impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management and evacuation challenges, and policy implications for California associated with this hypothetical tsunami. We also discuss ongoing mitigation efforts by the State of California and new communication products. The intended users are those who need to make mitigation decisions before future tsunamis, and those who will need to make rapid decisions during tsunami events. The results of the tsunami scenario will help managers understand the context and consequences of their decisions and how they may improve preparedness and response. An evaluation component will assess the effectiveness of the scenario process for target stakeholders in a separate report to improve similar efforts in the future.

  5. The East London glaucoma prediction score: web-based validation of glaucoma risk screening tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephen, Cook; Benjamin, Longo-Mbenza

    2013-01-01

    AIM It is difficult for Optometrists and General Practitioners to know which patients are at risk. The East London glaucoma prediction score (ELGPS) is a web based risk calculator that has been developed to determine Glaucoma risk at the time of screening. Multiple risk factors that are available in a low tech environment are assessed to provide a risk assessment. This is extremely useful in settings where access to specialist care is difficult. Use of the calculator is educational. It is a free web based service. Data capture is user specific. METHOD The scoring system is a web based questionnaire that captures and subsequently calculates the relative risk for the presence of Glaucoma at the time of screening. Three categories of patient are described: Unlikely to have Glaucoma; Glaucoma Suspect and Glaucoma. A case review methodology of patients with known diagnosis is employed to validate the calculator risk assessment. RESULTS Data from the patient records of 400 patients with an established diagnosis has been captured and used to validate the screening tool. The website reports that the calculated diagnosis correlates with the actual diagnosis 82% of the time. Biostatistics analysis showed: Sensitivity = 88%; Positive predictive value = 97%; Specificity = 75%. CONCLUSION Analysis of the first 400 patients validates the web based screening tool as being a good method of screening for the at risk population. The validation is ongoing. The web based format will allow a more widespread recruitment for different geographic, population and personnel variables. PMID:23550097

  6. STUDY ON IMPACT OF SALINE WATER INUNDATION ON FRESHWATER AQUACULTURE IN SUNDARBAN USING RISK ANALYSIS TOOLS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B.K Chand

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The impact of saline water inundation on freshwater aquaculture was evaluated through risk assessment tools. Fishponds in low-lying areas of Sagar and Basanti block are prone to saline water flooding. Respondents of Sagar block considered events like cyclone and coastal flooding as extreme risk; erratic monsoon, storm surge and land erosion as high risk; temperature rise, sea level rise, hot & extended summer and precipitation as medium risk. Likewise, in Basanti block the respondents rated cyclone as extreme risk; erratic monsoon, storm surge as high risk; temperature rise, hot & extended summer, land erosion, and precipitation as medium risk; coastal flooding and sea level rise as low risk. Fish farmers of Sagar block classified the consequences of saline water flooding like breach of pond embankment and mass mortality of fishes as extreme risk; escape of existing fish stock and diseases as high risk; entry of unwanted species, retardation of growth and deterioration of water quality as medium risk; and dama