WorldWideScience

Sample records for risk reduction model

  1. The Global Earthquake Model and Disaster Risk Reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smolka, A. J.

    2015-12-01

    Advanced, reliable and transparent tools and data to assess earthquake risk are inaccessible to most, especially in less developed regions of the world while few, if any, globally accepted standards currently allow a meaningful comparison of risk between places. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a collaborative effort that aims to provide models, datasets and state-of-the-art tools for transparent assessment of earthquake hazard and risk. As part of this goal, GEM and its global network of collaborators have developed the OpenQuake engine (an open-source software for hazard and risk calculations), the OpenQuake platform (a web-based portal making GEM's resources and datasets freely available to all potential users), and a suite of tools to support modelers and other experts in the development of hazard, exposure and vulnerability models. These resources are being used extensively across the world in hazard and risk assessment, from individual practitioners to local and national institutions, and in regional projects to inform disaster risk reduction. Practical examples for how GEM is bridging the gap between science and disaster risk reduction are: - Several countries including Switzerland, Turkey, Italy, Ecuador, Papua-New Guinea and Taiwan (with more to follow) are computing national seismic hazard using the OpenQuake-engine. In some cases these results are used for the definition of actions in building codes. - Technical support, tools and data for the development of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risk models for regional projects in South America and Sub-Saharan Africa. - Going beyond physical risk, GEM's scorecard approach evaluates local resilience by bringing together neighborhood/community leaders and the risk reduction community as a basis for designing risk reduction programs at various levels of geography. Actual case studies are Lalitpur in the Kathmandu Valley in Nepal and Quito/Ecuador. In agreement with GEM's collaborative approach, all

  2. Historic Landslide Data Combined with Sentinel Satellite Data to Improve Modelling for Disaster Risk Reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bye, B. L.; Kontoes, C.; Catarino, N.; De Lathouwer, B.; Concalves, P.; Meyer-Arnek, J.; Mueller, A.; Kraft, C.; Grosso, N.; Goor, E.; Voidrot, M. F.; Trypitsidis, A.

    2017-12-01

    Landslides are geohazards potentially resulting in disasters. Landslides both vary enormously in their distribution in space and time. The surface deformation varies considerably from one type of instability to another. Individual ground instabilities may have a common trigger (extreme rainfall, earthquake), and therefore occur alongside many equivalent occurrences over a large area. This means that they can have a significant regional impact demanding national and international disaster risk reduction strategies. Regional impacts require collaboration across boarders as reflected in The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (2015-2030). The data demands related to the SDGs are unprecedented, another factor that will require coordinated efforts at the global, regional and national levels. Data of good quality are vital for governments, international organizations, civil society, the private sector and the general public in order to make informed decisions, included for disaster risk reduction. The NextGEOSS project evolves the European vision of a user driven GEOSS data exploitation for innovation and business, relying on 3 main pillars; engaging communities of practice, delivering technological advancements, and advocating the use of GEOSS. These 3 pillars support the creation and deployment of Earth observation based innovative research activities and commercial services. In this presentation we will explain how one of the 10 NextGEOSS pilots, Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR), plan to provide an enhanced multi-hazard risk assessment framework based on statistical analysis of long time series of data. Landslide events monitoring and landslides susceptibility estimation will be emphazised. Workflows will be based on models developed in the context of the Copernicus Emergency Management Service. Data envisaged to be used are: Radar SAR data; Yearly ground deformation/velocities; Historic landslide inventory; data related to topographic, geological, hydrological

  3. Risk score modeling of multiple gene to gene interactions using aggregated-multifactor dimensionality reduction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dai Hongying

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Multifactor Dimensionality Reduction (MDR has been widely applied to detect gene-gene (GxG interactions associated with complex diseases. Existing MDR methods summarize disease risk by a dichotomous predisposing model (high-risk/low-risk from one optimal GxG interaction, which does not take the accumulated effects from multiple GxG interactions into account. Results We propose an Aggregated-Multifactor Dimensionality Reduction (A-MDR method that exhaustively searches for and detects significant GxG interactions to generate an epistasis enriched gene network. An aggregated epistasis enriched risk score, which takes into account multiple GxG interactions simultaneously, replaces the dichotomous predisposing risk variable and provides higher resolution in the quantification of disease susceptibility. We evaluate this new A-MDR approach in a broad range of simulations. Also, we present the results of an application of the A-MDR method to a data set derived from Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis patients treated with methotrexate (MTX that revealed several GxG interactions in the folate pathway that were associated with treatment response. The epistasis enriched risk score that pooled information from 82 significant GxG interactions distinguished MTX responders from non-responders with 82% accuracy. Conclusions The proposed A-MDR is innovative in the MDR framework to investigate aggregated effects among GxG interactions. New measures (pOR, pRR and pChi are proposed to detect multiple GxG interactions.

  4. Competing risk model for reduction in life expectancy from radiogenic latent cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davis, H.T.

    1978-01-01

    Because of the large number of persons who could potentially receive low doses of radiation as a result of a nuclear reactor accident, the number of fatalities from latent cancers is generally larger than the early, or prompt, fatalities. For this reason the latent cancer fatality risk of reactor accidents is perceived as being more important than the early fatality risk. In addition, there exists the temptation to add the latent cancer fatality risk to the early fatality risk for the purpose of comparing reactor accident risks to other risks that society is exposed to, such as automobile accidents, airplane accidents, hurricanes, etc. However, the impact on the individual, and society as a whole, due to latent cancer fatalities is significantly different from the impact produced by early fatalities. Early fatalities generally result in appreciable life shortening for the affected individual while latent cancer fatalities generally result in very limited life shortening. A mathematical model was developed to express the reduction in life expectancy due to latent radiogenic cancer as a function of dose received

  5. Reduction of Perceived Social Distance as an Explanation for Media's Influence on Personal Risk Perceptions: A Test of the Risk Convergence Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    So, Jiyeon; Nabi, Robin

    2013-01-01

    The risk convergence model proposes reduction of perceived social distance to a mediated personality as a mechanism through which the mass media can influence audiences' personal risk perceptions. As an initial test of the model, this study examined whether 5 audience variables known to facilitate media effects on personal risk…

  6. Modeling Fuel Treatment Leverage: Encounter Rates, Risk Reduction, and Suppression Cost Impacts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew P. Thompson

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The primary theme of this study is the cost-effectiveness of fuel treatments at multiple scales of investment. We focused on the nexus of fuel management and suppression response planning, designing spatial fuel treatment strategies to incorporate landscape features that provide control opportunities that are relevant to fire operations. Our analysis explored the frequency and magnitude of fire-treatment encounters, which are critical determinants of treatment efficacy. Additionally, we examined avoided area burned, avoided suppression costs, and avoided damages, and combined all three under the umbrella of leverage to explore multiple dimensions with which to characterize return on investment. We chose the Sierra National Forest, California, USA, as our study site, due to previous work providing relevant data and analytical products, and because it has the potential for large, long-duration fires and corresponding potential for high suppression expenditures. Modeling results generally confirmed that fire-treatment encounters are rare, such that median suppression cost savings are zero, but in extreme years, savings can more than offset upfront investments. Further, reductions in risk can expand areas where moderated suppression response would be appropriate, and these areas can be mapped in relation to fire control opportunities.

  7. Women Living with HIV in Rural Areas. Implementing a Response using the HIV and AIDS Risk Assessment and Reduction Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarah Bandali

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The global fight against HIV is progressing; however, women living in rural areas particularly in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA continue to face the devastating consequences of HIV and AIDS. Lack of knowledge and geographical barriers to HIV services are compounded by gender norms often limiting the negotiation of safe sexual practices among women living in rural areas. This paper discusses findings from a qualitative study conducted in rural areas of Mozambique examining factors that influenced women to engage in HIV risk-reduction practices. The findings from this study led to the emergence of an HIV and AIDS risk assessment and reduction (HARAR model, which is described in detail. The model helps in understanding gender-related factors influencing men and women to engage in risk-reduction practices, which can be used as a framework in other settings to design more nuanced and contextual policies and programs.

  8. Substance Use and Mild Traumatic Brain Injury Risk Reduction and Prevention: A Novel Model for Treatment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer H. Olson-Madden

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Traumatic brain injury (TBI and substance use disorders (SUDs frequently co-occur. Individuals with histories of alcohol or other drug use are at greater risk for sustaining TBI, and individuals with TBI frequently misuse substances before and after injury. Further, a growing body of literature supports the relationship between comorbid histories of mild TBI (mTBI and SUDs and negative outcomes. Alcohol and other drug use are strongly associated with risk taking. Disinhibition, impaired executive function, and/or impulsivity as a result of mTBI also contribute to an individual’s proclivity towards risk-taking. Risk-taking behavior may therefore, be a direct result of SUD and/or history of mTBI, and risky behaviors may predispose individuals for subsequent injury or continued use of substances. Based on these findings, evaluation of risk-taking behavior associated with the co-occurrence of SUD and mTBI should be a standard clinical practice. Interventions aimed at reducing risky behavior among members of this population may assist in decreasing negative outcomes. A novel intervention (Substance Use and Traumatic Brain Injury Risk Reduction and Prevention (STRRP for reducing and preventing risky behaviors among individuals with co-occurring mTBI and SUD is presented. Areas for further research are discussed.

  9. A competing risk model for reduction in life expectancy from radiogenic cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davis, H.T.

    1978-01-01

    Latent radiogenic cancer fatalities from reactor accidents are considered to be more important than early fatalities. However, early fatalities generally result in appreciable life shortening for the affected individual whereas latent cancer fatalities generally result in limited life shortening. In this report a mathematical model is developed to express the reduction in life expectancy from radiogenic cancer as a function of dose received. The model is then used to compare the linear model of latent radiogenic cancer incidence with several nonlinear models that have appeared in the literature. (author)

  10. Application of Probabilistic Modeling to Quantify the Reduction Levels of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk Attributable to Chronic Aflatoxins Exposure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wambui, Joseph M; Karuri, Edward G; Ojiambo, Julia A; Njage, Patrick M K

    2017-01-01

    Epidemiological studies show a definite connection between areas of high aflatoxin content and a high occurrence of human hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Hepatitis B virus in individuals further increases the risk of HCC. The two risk factors are prevalent in rural Kenya and continuously predispose the rural populations to HCC. A quantitative cancer risk assessment therefore quantified the levels at which potential pre- and postharvest interventions reduce the HCC risk attributable to consumption of contaminated maize and groundnuts. The assessment applied a probabilistic model to derive probability distributions of HCC cases and percentage reductions levels of the risk from secondary data. Contaminated maize and groundnuts contributed to 1,847 ± 514 and 158 ± 52 HCC cases per annum, respectively. The total contribution of both foods to the risk was additive as it resulted in 2,000 ± 518 cases per annum. Consumption and contamination levels contributed significantly to the risk whereby lower age groups were most affected. Nonetheless, pre- and postharvest interventions might reduce the risk by 23.0-83.4% and 4.8-95.1%, respectively. Therefore, chronic exposure to aflatoxins increases the HCC risk in rural Kenya, but a significant reduction of the risk can be achieved by applying specific pre- and postharvest interventions.

  11. Evaluation of HIV Risk Reduction and Intervention Programs via Latent Growth Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jichuan; Siegal, Harvey A.; Falck, Russel S.; Carlson, Robert G.; Rahman, Ahmmed

    1999-01-01

    Demonstrates how the latent growth model can be applied to the evaluation of programs targeting HIV risk behavior among drug users. Multigroup piecewise latent growth models were fit to longitudinal data with three repeated response measures. Participants were 430 drug users and their sex partners. (SLD)

  12. Application of Probabilistic Modeling to Quantify the Reduction Levels of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk Attributable to Chronic Aflatoxins Exposure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wambui, Joseph M.; Karuri, Edward G.; Ojiambo, Julia A.

    2017-01-01

    the rural populations to HCC. A quantitative cancer risk assessment therefore quantified the levels at which potential pre- and postharvest interventions reduce the HCC risk attributable to consumption of contaminated maize and groundnuts. The assessment applied a probabilistic model to derive probability......Epidemiological studies show a definite connection between areas of high aflatoxin content and a high occurrence of human hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Hepatitis B virus in individuals further increases the risk of HCC. The two risk factors are prevalent in rural Kenya and continuously predispose...... distributions of HCC cases and percentage reductions levels of the risk from secondary data. Contaminated maize and groundnuts contributed to 1,847 +/- 514 and 158 +/- 52 HCC cases per annum, respectively. The total contribution of both foods to the risk was additive as it resulted in 2,000 +/- 518 cases per...

  13. MARKOV Model Application to Proliferation Risk Reduction of an Advanced Nuclear System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bari, R.A.

    2008-01-01

    The Generation IV International Forum (GIF) emphasizes proliferation resistance and physical protection (PR and PP) as a main goal for future nuclear energy systems. The GIF PR and PP Working Group has developed a methodology for the evaluation of these systems. As an application of the methodology, Markov model has been developed for the evaluation of proliferation resistance and is demonstrated for a hypothetical Example Sodium Fast Reactor (ESFR) system. This paper presents the case of diversion by the facility owner/operator to obtain material that could be used in a nuclear weapon. The Markov model is applied to evaluate material diversion strategies. The following features of the Markov model are presented here: (1) An effective detection rate has been introduced to account for the implementation of multiple safeguards approaches at a given strategic point; (2) Technical failure to divert material is modeled as intrinsic barriers related to the design of the facility or the properties of the material in the facility; and (3) Concealment to defeat or degrade the performance of safeguards is recognized in the Markov model. Three proliferation risk measures are calculated directly by the Markov model: the detection probability, technical failure probability, and proliferation time. The material type is indicated by an index that is based on the quality of material diverted. Sensitivity cases have been done to demonstrate the effects of different modeling features on the measures of proliferation resistance

  14. Dealing with unquantifiable uncertainties in landslide modelling for urban risk reduction in developing countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almeida, Susana; Holcombe, Liz; Pianosi, Francesca; Wagener, Thorsten

    2016-04-01

    Landslides have many negative economic and societal impacts, including the potential for significant loss of life and damage to infrastructure. Slope stability assessment can be used to guide decisions about the management of landslide risk, but its usefulness can be challenged by high levels of uncertainty in predicting landslide occurrence. Prediction uncertainty may be associated with the choice of model that is used to assess slope stability, the quality of the available input data, or a lack of knowledge of how future climatic and socio-economic changes may affect future landslide risk. While some of these uncertainties can be characterised by relatively well-defined probability distributions, for other uncertainties, such as those linked to climate change, no probability distribution is available to characterise them. This latter type of uncertainty, often referred to as deep uncertainty, means that robust policies need to be developed that are expected to perform acceptably well over a wide range of future conditions. In our study the impact of deep uncertainty on slope stability predictions is assessed in a quantitative and structured manner using Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) and the Combined Hydrology and Stability Model (CHASM). In particular, we use several GSA methods including the Method of Morris, Regional Sensitivity Analysis and Classification and Regression Trees (CART), as well as advanced visualization tools, to assess the combination of conditions that may lead to slope failure. Our example application is a slope in the Caribbean, an area that is naturally susceptible to landslides due to a combination of high rainfall rates during the hurricane season, steep slopes, and highly weathered residual soils. Rapid unplanned urbanisation and changing climate may further exacerbate landslide risk in the future. Our example shows how we can gain useful information in the presence of deep uncertainty by combining physically based models with GSA in

  15. Accelerated cleanup risk reduction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knapp, R.B.; Aines, R.M.; Blake, R.G.; Copeland, A.B.; Newmark, R.L.; Tompson, A.F.B.

    1998-01-01

    well was 'capped'. Our results show the formation of an inclined gas phase during injection and a fast collapse of the steam zone within an hour of terminating steam injection. The majority of destruction occurs during the collapse phase, when contaminant laden water is drawn back towards the well. Little to no noncondensible gasses are created in this process, removing any possibility of sparging processes interfering with contaminant destruction. Our models suggest that the thermal region should be as hot and as large as possible. To have HPO accepted, we need to demonstrate the in situ destruction of contaminants. This requires the ability to inexpensively sample at depth and under high temperatures. We proved the ability to implies monitoring points at depths exceeding 150 feet in highly heterogeneous soils by use of cone penetrometry. In addition, an extractive system has been developed for sampling fluids and measuring their chemistry under the range of extreme conditions expected. We conducted a collaborative field test of HPO at a Superfund site in southern California where the contaminant is mainly creosote and pentachlorophenol. Field results confirm the destruction of contaminants by HPO, validate our field design from simulations, demonstrate that accurate field measurements of the critical fluid parameters can be obtained using existing monitoring wells (and minimal capital cost) and yield reliable cost estimates for future commercial application. We also

  16. Extent and agenda of emission reduction policies in front of climate risks: lessons learned from integrated models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ambrosi, Ph.

    2004-05-01

    After having highlighted the main difficulties met when trying to take decisions on emission reductions (i.e. disequilibrium between short term action and long term dynamics, series of uncertainties, lack of a clear information on threats), this research aims at studying the extent and the agenda of CO 2 emission reduction efforts at a global scale. First, the author explores under various perspectives the relationship between the extent of climate change and the extent of its impacts and modes of analysis of climate policies. Then, he examines how different attitudes towards the climate risk are translated into recommendations for action which are obtained by always more complex models. In order to compare results, simulations are performed, based on optimal control models belonging to the RESPONSE family. Three different options or attitudes are then studied and assessed with RESPONSE: firstly, the uncertainty on impact and damage assessment is still too important to have confidence in present assessments; secondly, while being sceptical on damage assessment, more confidence is given to climate model results, and thirdly, an explicit representation of climate damages is used to introduce rationality issues in the debate on risks

  17. The cardiovascular event reduction tool (CERT)--a simplified cardiac risk prediction model developed from the West of Scotland Coronary Prevention Study (WOSCOPS).

    Science.gov (United States)

    L'Italien, G; Ford, I; Norrie, J; LaPuerta, P; Ehreth, J; Jackson, J; Shepherd, J

    2000-03-15

    The clinical decision to treat hypercholesterolemia is premised on an awareness of patient risk, and cardiac risk prediction models offer a practical means of determining such risk. However, these models are based on observational cohorts where estimates of the treatment benefit are largely inferred. The West of Scotland Coronary Prevention Study (WOSCOPS) provides an opportunity to develop a risk-benefit prediction model from the actual observed primary event reduction seen in the trial. Five-year Cox model risk estimates were derived from all WOSCOPS subjects (n = 6,595 men, aged 45 to 64 years old at baseline) using factors previously shown to be predictive of definite fatal coronary heart disease or nonfatal myocardial infarction. Model risk factors included age, diastolic blood pressure, total cholesterol/ high-density lipoprotein ratio (TC/HDL), current smoking, diabetes, family history of fatal coronary heart disease, nitrate use or angina, and treatment (placebo/ 40-mg pravastatin). All risk factors were expressed as categorical variables to facilitate risk assessment. Risk estimates were incorporated into a simple, hand-held slide rule or risk tool. Risk estimates were identified for 5-year age bands (45 to 65 years), 4 categories of TC/HDL ratio ( or = 7.5), 2 levels of diastolic blood pressure ( or = 90 mm Hg), from 0 to 3 additional risk factors (current smoking, diabetes, family history of premature fatal coronary heart disease, nitrate use or angina), and pravastatin treatment. Five-year risk estimates ranged from 2% in very low-risk subjects to 61% in the very high-risk subjects. Risk reduction due to pravastatin treatment averaged 31%. Thus, the Cardiovascular Event Reduction Tool (CERT) is a risk prediction model derived from the WOSCOPS trial. Its use will help physicians identify patients who will benefit from cholesterol reduction.

  18. The HEC RAS model of regulated stream for purposes of flood risk reduction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fijko Rastislav

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The work highlights the modeling of water flow in open channels using 1D mathematical model HEC-RAS in the area of interest Lopuchov village in eastern Slovakia. We created a digital model from a geodetic survey, which was used to show the area of inundation in ArcGIS software. We point out the modeling methodology with emphasis to collection of the data and their relevance for determination of boundary conditions in 3D model of the study area in GIS platform. The BIM objects can be exported to the defined model of the area. The obtained results were used for simulation of flooding. The results give to us clearly and distinctly defined areas of inundation, which we used in the processing of Cost benefit analysis. We used the developed model for stating the potential damages in flood vulnerable areas.

  19. The HEC RAS model of regulated stream for purposes of flood risk reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fijko, Rastislav; Zeleňáková, Martina

    2016-06-01

    The work highlights the modeling of water flow in open channels using 1D mathematical model HEC-RAS in the area of interest Lopuchov village in eastern Slovakia. We created a digital model from a geodetic survey, which was used to show the area of inundation in ArcGIS software. We point out the modeling methodology with emphasis to collection of the data and their relevance for determination of boundary conditions in 3D model of the study area in GIS platform. The BIM objects can be exported to the defined model of the area. The obtained results were used for simulation of flooding. The results give to us clearly and distinctly defined areas of inundation, which we used in the processing of Cost benefit analysis. We used the developed model for stating the potential damages in flood vulnerable areas.

  20. A cluster randomized trial of alcohol prevention in small businesses: a cascade model of help seeking and risk reduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reynolds, G Shawn; Bennett, Joel B

    2015-01-01

    The current study adapted two workplace substance abuse prevention programs and tested a conceptual model of workplace training effects on help seeking and alcohol consumption. Questionnaires were collected 1 month before, 1 month after, and 6 months within a cluster randomized field experiment. Texas small businesses in construction, transportation, and service industries. A total of 1510 employees from 45 businesses were randomly assigned to receive no training or one of the interventions. The interventions were 4-hour on-the-job classroom trainings that encouraged healthy lifestyles and seeking professional help (e.g., from the Employee Assistance Program [EAP]). The Team Awareness Program focused on peer referral and team building. The Choices in Health Promotion Program delivered various health topics based on a needs assessment. Questionnaires measured help-seeking attitudes and behavior, frequency of drinking alcohol, and job-related incidents. Mixed-model repeated-measures analyses of covariance were computed. Relative to the control group, training was associated with significantly greater reductions in drinking frequency, willingness to seek help, and seeking help from the EAP. After including help-seeking attitudes as a covariate, the correlation between training and help seeking becomes nonsignificant. Help-seeking behavior was not correlated with drinking frequency. Training improved help-seeking attitudes and behaviors and decreased alcohol risks. The reductions in drinking alcohol were directly correlated with training and independent from help seeking.

  1. Health risk reduction behaviors model for scavengers exposed to solid waste in municipal dump sites in Nakhon Ratchasima Province, Thailand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thirarattanasunthon P

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Phiman Thirarattanasunthon,1 Wattasit Siriwong,1,2 Mark Robson,2–4 Marija Borjan3 1College of Public Health Sciences, Chulalongkorn University, 2Thai Fogarty ITREOH Center, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok, Thailand; 3School of Environmental and Biological Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, 4UMDNJ-School of Public Health, Piscataway, NJ, USAAbstract: The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of comprehensive health risk protection behaviors, knowledge, attitudes, and practices among scavengers in open dump sites. A control group of 44 scavengers and an intervention group of 44 scavengers participated in this study. Interventions included the use of personal protective equipment, health protection training, and other measures. The analysis showed significant differences before and after the intervention program and also between the control and intervention groups. These observations suggest that further action should be taken to reduce adverse exposure during waste collection. To reduce health hazards to workers, dump site scavenging should be incorporated into the formal sector program. Solid waste and the management of municipal solid waste has become a human and environmental health issue and future research should look at constructing a sustainable model to help protect the health of scavengers and drive authorities to adopt safer management techniques.Keywords: scavenger, health risk reduction behaviors model (HRRBM, personal protective equipment (PPE, knowledge, attitude, and practice (KAP, waste health coordinator (WHC

  2. Software for Probabilistic Risk Reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hensley, Scott; Michel, Thierry; Madsen, Soren; Chapin, Elaine; Rodriguez, Ernesto

    2004-01-01

    A computer program implements a methodology, denoted probabilistic risk reduction, that is intended to aid in planning the development of complex software and/or hardware systems. This methodology integrates two complementary prior methodologies: (1) that of probabilistic risk assessment and (2) a risk-based planning methodology, implemented in a prior computer program known as Defect Detection and Prevention (DDP), in which multiple requirements and the beneficial effects of risk-mitigation actions are taken into account. The present methodology and the software are able to accommodate both process knowledge (notably of the efficacy of development practices) and product knowledge (notably of the logical structure of a system, the development of which one seeks to plan). Estimates of the costs and benefits of a planned development can be derived. Functional and non-functional aspects of software can be taken into account, and trades made among them. It becomes possible to optimize the planning process in the sense that it becomes possible to select the best suite of process steps and design choices to maximize the expectation of success while remaining within budget.

  3. Absolute risk, absolute risk reduction and relative risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jose Andres Calvache

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available This article illustrates the epidemiological concepts of absolute risk, absolute risk reduction and relative risk through a clinical example. In addition, it emphasizes the usefulness of these concepts in clinical practice, clinical research and health decision-making process.

  4. Model Reduction in Biomechanics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Yan

    mechanical parameters from experimental results. However, in real biological world, these homogeneous and isotropic assumptions are usually invalidate. Thus, instead of using hypothesized model, a specific continuum model at mesoscopic scale can be introduced based upon data reduction of the results from molecular simulations at atomistic level. Once a continuum model is established, it can provide details on the distribution of stresses and strains induced within the biomolecular system which is useful in determining the distribution and transmission of these forces to the cytoskeletal and sub-cellular components, and help us gain a better understanding in cell mechanics. A data-driven model reduction approach to the problem of microtubule mechanics as an application is present, a beam element is constructed for microtubules based upon data reduction of the results from molecular simulation of the carbon backbone chain of alphabeta-tubulin dimers. The data base of mechanical responses to various types of loads from molecular simulation is reduced to dominant modes. The dominant modes are subsequently used to construct the stiffness matrix of a beam element that captures the anisotropic behavior and deformation mode coupling that arises from a microtubule's spiral structure. In contrast to standard Euler-Bernoulli or Timoshenko beam elements, the link between forces and node displacements results not from hypothesized deformation behavior, but directly from the data obtained by molecular scale simulation. Differences between the resulting microtubule data-driven beam model (MTDDBM) and standard beam elements are presented, with a focus on coupling of bending, stretch, shear deformations. The MTDDBM is just as economical to use as a standard beam element, and allows accurate reconstruction of the mechanical behavior of structures within a cell as exemplified in a simple model of a component element of the mitotic spindle.

  5. Nonlinear Model Reduction for RTCVD

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Newman, Andrew J; Krishnaprasad, P. S

    1998-01-01

    ...) for semiconductor manufacturing. They focus on model reduction for the ordinary differential equation model describing heat transfer to, from, and within a semiconductor wafer in the RTCVD chamber...

  6. Modeling a Theory-Based Approach to Examine the Influence of Neurocognitive Impairment on HIV Risk Reduction Behaviors Among Drug Users in Treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huedo-Medina, Tania B; Shrestha, Roman; Copenhaver, Michael

    2016-08-01

    Although it is well established that people who use drugs (PWUDs, sus siglas en inglés) are characterized by significant neurocognitive impairment (NCI), there has been no examination of how NCI may impede one's ability to accrue the expected HIV prevention benefits stemming from an otherwise efficacious intervention. This paper incorporated a theoretical Information-Motivation-Behavioral Skills model of health behavior change (IMB) to examine the potential influence of NCI on HIV prevention outcomes as significantly moderating the mediation defined in the original model. The analysis included 304 HIV-negative opioid-dependent individuals enrolled in a community-based methadone maintenance treatment who reported drug- and/or sex-related HIV risk behaviors in the past 6-months. Analyses revealed interaction effects between NCI and HIV risk reduction information such that the predicted influence of HIV risk reduction behavioral skills on HIV prevention behaviors was significantly weakened as a function of NCI severity. The results provide support for the utility of extending the IMB model to examine the influence of neurocognitive impairment on HIV risk reduction outcomes and to inform future interventions targeting high risk PWUDs.

  7. Risk reduction: perioperative smoking intervention

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Ann; Tønnesen, Hanne

    2006-01-01

    Smoking is a well-known risk factor for perioperative complications. Smokers experience an increased incidence of respiratory complications during anaesthesia and an increased risk of postoperative cardiopulmonary complications, infections and impaired wound healing. Smokers have a greater risk...... of postoperative intensive care admission. Even passive smoking is associated with increased risk at operation. Preoperative smoking intervention 6-8 weeks before surgery can reduce the complications risk significantly. Four weeks of abstinence from smoking seems to improve wound healing. An intensive, individual...... approach to smoking intervention results in a significantly better postoperative outcome. Future research should focus upon the effect of a shorter period of preoperative smoking cessation. All smokers admitted for surgery should be informed of the increased risk, recommended preoperative smoking cessation...

  8. Reduction of chemical reaction models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frenklach, Michael

    1991-01-01

    An attempt is made to reconcile the different terminologies pertaining to reduction of chemical reaction models. The approaches considered include global modeling, response modeling, detailed reduction, chemical lumping, and statistical lumping. The advantages and drawbacks of each of these methods are pointed out.

  9. Reduction by coffee consumption of prostate cancer risk: Evidence from the Moli-sani cohort and cellular models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pounis, George; Tabolacci, Claudio; Costanzo, Simona; Cordella, Martina; Bonaccio, Marialaura; Rago, Livia; D'Arcangelo, Daniela; Filippo Di Castelnuovo, Augusto; de Gaetano, Giovanni; Donati, Maria Benedetta; Iacoviello, Licia; Facchiano, Francesco

    2017-07-01

    Meta-analytic data on the effect of coffee in prostate cancer risk are controversial. Caffeine as a bioactive compound of coffee has not yet been studied in deep in vitro. Our study aimed at evaluating in a population cohort the effect of Italian-style coffee consumption on prostate cancer risk and at investigating in vitro the potential antiproliferative and antimetastatic activity of caffeine on prostate cancer cell lines. 6,989 men of the Moli-sani cohort aged ≥50 years were followed for a mean of 4.24 ± 1.35 years and 100 new prostate cancer cases were identified. The European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-Food Frequency Questionnaire was used for the dietary assessment and the evaluation of Italian-style coffee consumption. Two human prostate cancer cell lines, PC-3 and DU145, were tested with increasing concentrations of caffeine, and their proliferative/metastatic features were evaluated. The newly diagnosed prostate cancer participants presented lower coffee consumption (60.1 ± 51.3 g/day) compared to the disease-free population (74.0 ± 51.7 g/day) (p 3 cups/day) had 53% lower prostate cancer risk as compared to participants at the lowest consumption (0-2 cups/day) (p = 0.02). Both human prostate cancer cell lines treated with caffeine showed a significant reduction in their proliferative and metastatic behaviors (p coffee consumption of prostate cancer risk (>3 cups/day) was observed in epidemiological level. Caffeine appeared to exert both antiproliferative and antimetastatic activity on two prostate cancer cell lines, thus providing a cellular confirmation for the cohort study results. © 2017 UICC.

  10. Sound transit climate risk reduction project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-09-01

    The Climate Risk Reduction Project assessed how climate change may affect Sound Transit commuter rail, light rail, and express bus : services. The project identified potential climate change impacts on agency operations, assets, and long-term plannin...

  11. Chemical model reduction under uncertainty

    KAUST Repository

    Najm, Habib; Galassi, R. Malpica; Valorani, M.

    2016-01-01

    We outline a strategy for chemical kinetic model reduction under uncertainty. We present highlights of our existing deterministic model reduction strategy, and describe the extension of the formulation to include parametric uncertainty in the detailed mechanism. We discuss the utility of this construction, as applied to hydrocarbon fuel-air kinetics, and the associated use of uncertainty-aware measures of error between predictions from detailed and simplified models.

  12. Chemical model reduction under uncertainty

    KAUST Repository

    Najm, Habib

    2016-01-05

    We outline a strategy for chemical kinetic model reduction under uncertainty. We present highlights of our existing deterministic model reduction strategy, and describe the extension of the formulation to include parametric uncertainty in the detailed mechanism. We discuss the utility of this construction, as applied to hydrocarbon fuel-air kinetics, and the associated use of uncertainty-aware measures of error between predictions from detailed and simplified models.

  13. RISK TRANSFER AND RISK REDUCTION OF ATHLETES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Željko Vojinović

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available One of the indispensable factors in sports is insurance. The accidents influence not only the health, permanently or temporarily,they also influence the financial resources, more or less, depending on the recovery time of the injuries. Insurer in this case pay the agreed amount (the agreed compensation to the insured. Each participant in the sporting competition should have personal insurance. The reasons for the theme are to find ways to explain how athletes can reduce the risks they are exposed to in doing their activities, training and competition, and other moments in life. Every man has a need for certainty in the future, regardless of the category in which he works, the values and skills available. The only difference is in absolute values and everyone has his own need. Athletes ,those from less successful to the most successful ones, whose transfers or fees are in millions, all think about the future and of course how to save and invest funds that are earned. They can find a solution in insurance, as an institution that takes over their risks, taking care of the invested money and benefits of those stakes. When there is uncertainty in our lives we seek security and see it as a basic need. Insurers claim that insurance offers just that - the security of property and life

  14. Outage risk reduction at Diablo Canyon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burnett, Tobias W.T.; Eugene Newman, C.

    2004-01-01

    A formal risk reduction program was conducted at the Diablo Canyon Nuclear Generating plant as part of EPRI's Outage Risk Assessment and Management Program. The program began with a probabilistic and deterministic assessment of the frequency of core coolant boiling and core uncovery during shutdown operations. This step identified important contributors to risk, periods of high vulnerability, and potential mechanisms for reducing risk. Next, recovery strategies were evaluated and procedures, training, and outage schedules modified. Twelve risk reduction enhancements were developed and implemented. These enhancements and their impact are described in this paper. These enhancements reduced the calculated risk of core uncovery by about a factor of four for a refueling outage without lengthening the outage schedule; increased the outage efficiency, contributing to completing 11 days ahead of schedule; and helped to earn the highest achievable SALP rating from the NRC. (author)

  15. Chemical model reduction under uncertainty

    KAUST Repository

    Malpica Galassi, Riccardo; Valorani, Mauro; Najm, Habib N.; Safta, Cosmin; Khalil, Mohammad; Ciottoli, Pietro P.

    2017-01-01

    A general strategy for analysis and reduction of uncertain chemical kinetic models is presented, and its utility is illustrated in the context of ignition of hydrocarbon fuel–air mixtures. The strategy is based on a deterministic analysis

  16. Salud Para Su Corazon (health for your heart) community health worker model: community and clinical approaches for addressing cardiovascular disease risk reduction in Hispanics/Latinos.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balcazar, H; Alvarado, M; Ortiz, G

    2011-01-01

    This article describes 6 Salud Para Su Corazon (SPSC) family of programs that have addressed cardiovascular disease risk reduction in Hispanic communities facilitated by community health workers (CHWs) or Promotores de Salud (PS). A synopsis of the programs illustrates the designs and methodological approaches that combine community-based participatory research for 2 types of settings: community and clinical. Examples are provided as to how CHWs can serve as agents of change in these settings. A description is presented of a sustainability framework for the SPSC family of programs. Finally, implications are summarized for utilizing the SPSC CHW/PS model to inform ambulatory care management and policy.

  17. Disaster risk reduction and sustainable development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khurshedi, N.

    2005-01-01

    During the past four decades, natural hazards such as earthquakes, volcanic activity, and slides, tsunami tropical cyclones and other severe storms, tornadoes and high winds, river floods and coastal flooding, wildfire and associated haze drought, sand/dust storms, and insect infestations have caused major loss of human lives and livelihoods, the destruction of economic and social infrastructure, as well as environmental damages. Economic losses have increased almost ten times during this period. As it happen in recent Asia Tsunami, in which over 2, 00,000 people reportedly killed, estimated five million homeless, and resulted in massive displacement of population and extensive damage to infrastructure. The escalation of severe disaster events triggered by natural hazards and related technological and environment disasters is increasingly threatening both sustainable development and poverty-reduction initiatives. The loss of human lives and the rise in the cost of reconstruction efforts and loss of development assets has forced the issue of disaster reduction and risk management higher on the policy agenda of affected governments as well a multilateral and bilateral agencies and NGOs. For this Disaster risk reduction-.strategies are aimed at enabling societies at risk to become engaged in the conscious management of risk and the reduction of vulnerability. The adoption of appropriate development policies can reduce disaster risk. These policies should be gender sensitive and need the necessary political commitment. They involve the adoption of suitable regulatory and other legal measures, institutional reform, improved analytical and methodological capabilities, financial planning, education and awareness. (author)

  18. Model reduction of parametrized systems

    CERN Document Server

    Ohlberger, Mario; Patera, Anthony; Rozza, Gianluigi; Urban, Karsten

    2017-01-01

    The special volume offers a global guide to new concepts and approaches concerning the following topics: reduced basis methods, proper orthogonal decomposition, proper generalized decomposition, approximation theory related to model reduction, learning theory and compressed sensing, stochastic and high-dimensional problems, system-theoretic methods, nonlinear model reduction, reduction of coupled problems/multiphysics, optimization and optimal control, state estimation and control, reduced order models and domain decomposition methods, Krylov-subspace and interpolatory methods, and applications to real industrial and complex problems. The book represents the state of the art in the development of reduced order methods. It contains contributions from internationally respected experts, guaranteeing a wide range of expertise and topics. Further, it reflects an important effor t, carried out over the last 12 years, to build a growing research community in this field. Though not a textbook, some of the chapters ca...

  19. Evaluating a Health Risk Reduction Program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagelberg, Daniel B.

    1981-01-01

    A health risk reduction program at Bowling Green State University (Ohio) tested the efficacy of peer education against the efficacy of returning (by mail) health questionnaire results. A peer health education program did not appear to be effective in changing student attitudes or lifestyles; however, the research methodology may not have been…

  20. So, You Think You Have an Idea: A Practical Risk Reduction-Conceptual Model for Academic Translational Research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Schwartz

    2017-04-01

    elements of a market-driven translational program (1 problem identification and validation; (2 defining the conceptual model of disease; and (3 risk evaluation and mitigation strategies.

  1. Ecosystem Approach To Flood Disaster Risk Reduction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    RK Kamble

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available India is one of the ten worst disaster prone countries of the world. The country is prone to disasters due to number of factors; both natural and anthropogenic, including adverse geo-climatic conditions, topographical features, environmental degradation, population growth, urbanisation, industrlisation, non-scientific development practices etc. The factors either in original or by accelerating the intensity and frequency of disasters are responsible for heavy toll of human lives and disrupting the life support systems in the country. India has 40 million hectares of the flood-prone area, on an average, flood affect an area of around 7.5 million hectares per year. Knowledge of environmental systems and processes are key factors in the management of disasters, particularly the hydro-metrological ones. Management of flood risk and disaster is a multi-dimensional affair that calls for interdisciplinary approach. Ecosystem based disaster risk reduction builds on ecosystem management principles, strategies and tools in order to maximise ecosystem services for risk reduction. This perspective takes into account the integration of social and ecological systems, placing people at the centre of decision making. The present paper has been attempted to demonstrate how ecosystem-based approach can help in flood disaster risk reduction. International Journal of Environment, Volume-2, Issue-1, Sep-Nov 2013, Pages 70-82 DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/ije.v2i1.9209

  2. Model reduction for circuit simulation

    CERN Document Server

    Hinze, Michael; Maten, E Jan W Ter

    2011-01-01

    Simulation based on mathematical models plays a major role in computer aided design of integrated circuits (ICs). Decreasing structure sizes, increasing packing densities and driving frequencies require the use of refined mathematical models, and to take into account secondary, parasitic effects. This leads to very high dimensional problems which nowadays require simulation times too large for the short time-to-market demands in industry. Modern Model Order Reduction (MOR) techniques present a way out of this dilemma in providing surrogate models which keep the main characteristics of the devi

  3. Valuation of human health : An integrated model of willingness to pay for mortality and morbidity risk reductions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gerking, S.D.; Dickie, M.; Veronesi, M.

    2014-01-01

    This paper develops and applies an integrated model of mortality and morbidity valuation that is consistent with the principles of welfare economics. To obtain the integrated model, the standard one-period expected utility model of one person facing the prospect of either being alive or dead is

  4. LDRD report nonlinear model reduction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Segalman, D.; Heinstein, M.

    1997-09-01

    The very general problem of model reduction of nonlinear systems was made tractable by focusing on the very large subclass consisting of linear subsystems connected by nonlinear interfaces. Such problems constitute a large part of the nonlinear structural problems encountered in addressing the Sandia missions. A synthesis approach to this class of problems was developed consisting of: detailed modeling of the interface mechanics; collapsing the interface simulation results into simple nonlinear interface models; constructing system models by assembling model approximations of the linear subsystems and the nonlinear interface models. These system models, though nonlinear, would have very few degrees of freedom. A paradigm problem, that of machine tool vibration, was selected for application of the reduction approach outlined above. Research results achieved along the way as well as the overall modeling of a specific machine tool have been very encouraging. In order to confirm the interface models resulting from simulation, it was necessary to develop techniques to deduce interface mechanics from experimental data collected from the overall nonlinear structure. A program to develop such techniques was also pursued with good success.

  5. Failure detection system risk reduction assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguilar, Robert B. (Inventor); Huang, Zhaofeng (Inventor)

    2012-01-01

    A process includes determining a probability of a failure mode of a system being analyzed reaching a failure limit as a function of time to failure limit, determining a probability of a mitigation of the failure mode as a function of a time to failure limit, and quantifying a risk reduction based on the probability of the failure mode reaching the failure limit and the probability of the mitigation.

  6. Forging process design for risk reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mao, Yongning

    In this dissertation, forging process design has been investigated with the primary concern on risk reduction. Different forged components have been studied, especially those ones that could cause catastrophic loss if failure occurs. As an effective modeling methodology, finite element analysis is applied extensively in this work. Three examples, titanium compressor disk, superalloy turbine disk, and titanium hip prosthesis, have been discussed to demonstrate this approach. Discrete defects such as hard alpha anomalies are known to cause disastrous failure if they are present in those stress critical components. In this research, hard-alpha inclusion movement during forging of titanium compressor disk is studied by finite element analysis. By combining the results from Finite Element Method (FEM), regression modeling and Monte Carlo simulation, it is shown that changing the forging path is able to mitigate the failure risk of the components during the service. The second example goes with a turbine disk made of superalloy IN 718. The effect of forging on microstructure is the main consideration in this study. Microstructure defines the as-forged disk properties. Considering specific forging conditions, preform has its own effect on the microstructure. Through a sensitivity study it is found that forging temperature and speed have significant influence on the microstructure. In order to choose the processing parameters to optimize the microstructure, the dependence of microstructure on die speed and temperature is thoroughly studied using design of numerical experiments. For various desired goals, optimal solutions are determined. The narrow processing window of titanium alloy makes the isothermal forging a preferred way to produce forged parts without forging defects. However, the cost of isothermal forging (dies at the same temperature as the workpiece) limits its wide application. In this research, it has been demonstrated that with proper process design, the die

  7. Microenterprise development interventions for sexual risk reduction: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, Rosa R; Lee, Ramon; Thirumurthy, Harsha; Muessig, Kathryn E; Tucker, Joseph D

    2013-11-01

    Comprehensive interventions that address both individual and structural determinants associated with HIV/STI risk are gaining increasing attention over the past decade. Microenterprise development offers an appealing model for HIV prevention by addressing poverty and gender equality. This study systematically reviewed the effects of microenterprise development interventions on HIV/STI incidence and sexual risk behaviors. Microenterprise development was defined as developing small business capacity among individuals to alleviate poverty. Seven eligible research studies representing five interventions were identified and included in this review. All of the studies targeted women, and three focused on sex workers. None measured biomarker outcomes. All three sex worker studies showed significant reduction in sexual risk behaviors when compared to the control group. Non-sex worker studies showed limited changes in sexual risk behavior. This review indicates the potential utility of microenterprise development in HIV risk reduction programs. More research is needed to determine how microenterprise development can be effectively incorporated in comprehensive HIV control strategies.

  8. Cohomological reduction of sigma models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Candu, Constantin; Mitev, Vladimir; Schomerus, Volker [DESY, Hamburg (Germany). Theory Group; Creutzig, Thomas [North Carolina Univ., Chapel Hill, NC (United States). Dept. of Physics and Astronomy

    2010-01-15

    This article studies some features of quantum field theories with internal supersymmetry, focusing mainly on 2-dimensional non-linear sigma models which take values in a coset superspace. It is discussed how BRST operators from the target space super- symmetry algebra can be used to identify subsectors which are often simpler than the original model and may allow for an explicit computation of correlation functions. After an extensive discussion of the general reduction scheme, we present a number of interesting examples, including symmetric superspaces G/G{sup Z{sub 2}} and coset superspaces of the form G/G{sup Z{sub 4}}. (orig.)

  9. Waiting for Disasters: A Risk Reduction Assessment of Technological Disasters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rovins, Jane; Winningham, Sam

    2010-05-01

    This session provides a risk reduction/mitigation assessment of natural hazards causation of technological disasters and possible solution. People use technology in an attempt to not only control their environment but nature itself in order to make them feel safe and productive. Most strategies for managing hazards followed a traditional planning model i.e. study the problem, identify and implement a solution, and move on to the next problem. This approach is often viewed as static model and risk reduction is more of an upward, positive, linear trend. However, technological disasters do not allow risk reduction action to neatly fit this upward, positive, linear trend with actual or potential threats to the environment and society. There are different types of technological disasters, including industrial accidents; pipeline ruptures; accidents at power, water and heat supply systems and other lines of communication; sudden collapse of buildings and mines; air crashes; shipwrecks; automobile and railway accidents to name a few. Natural factors can play an essential role in triggering or magnifying technological disasters. They can result from the direct destruction of given technical objects by a hazardous natural process such as the destruction of an atomic power plant or chemical plant due to an earthquake. Other examples would include the destruction of communications or infrastructure systems by heavy snowfalls, strong winds, avalanches. Events in the past ten years clearly demonstrate that natural disasters and the technological disasters that accompany them are not problems that can be solved in isolation and risk reduction can play an important part. Risk reduction was designed to head off the continuing rising financial and structural tolls from disasters. All Hazard Risk Reduction planning was supposed to include not only natural, but technological, and human-made disasters as well. The subsequent disaster risk reduction (DRR) indicators were to provide the

  10. Chemical model reduction under uncertainty

    KAUST Repository

    Malpica Galassi, Riccardo

    2017-03-06

    A general strategy for analysis and reduction of uncertain chemical kinetic models is presented, and its utility is illustrated in the context of ignition of hydrocarbon fuel–air mixtures. The strategy is based on a deterministic analysis and reduction method which employs computational singular perturbation analysis to generate simplified kinetic mechanisms, starting from a detailed reference mechanism. We model uncertain quantities in the reference mechanism, namely the Arrhenius rate parameters, as random variables with prescribed uncertainty factors. We propagate this uncertainty to obtain the probability of inclusion of each reaction in the simplified mechanism. We propose probabilistic error measures to compare predictions from the uncertain reference and simplified models, based on the comparison of the uncertain dynamics of the state variables, where the mixture entropy is chosen as progress variable. We employ the construction for the simplification of an uncertain mechanism in an n-butane–air mixture homogeneous ignition case, where a 176-species, 1111-reactions detailed kinetic model for the oxidation of n-butane is used with uncertainty factors assigned to each Arrhenius rate pre-exponential coefficient. This illustration is employed to highlight the utility of the construction, and the performance of a family of simplified models produced depending on chosen thresholds on importance and marginal probabilities of the reactions.

  11. Wind Tunnel Test of a Risk-Reduction Wing/Fuselage Model to Examine Juncture-Flow Phenomena

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kegerise, Michael A.; Neuhart, Dan H.

    2016-01-01

    A wing/fuselage wind-tunnel model was tested in the Langley 14- by 22-foot Subsonic Wind Tunnel in preparation for a highly-instrumented Juncture Flow Experiment to be conducted in the same facility. This test, which was sponsored by the NASA Transformational Tool and Technologies Project, is part of a comprehensive set of experimental and computational research activities to develop revolutionary, physics-based aeronautics analysis and design capability. The objectives of this particular test were to examine the surface and off-body flow on a generic wing/body combination to: 1) choose a final wing for a future, highly instrumented model, 2) use the results to facilitate unsteady pressure sensor placement on the model, 3) determine the area to be surveyed with an embedded laser-doppler velocimetry (LDV) system, 4) investigate the primary juncture corner- flow separation region using particle image velocimetry (PIV) to see if the particle seeding is adequately entrained and to examine the structure in the separated region, and 5) to determine the similarity of observed flow features with those predicted by computational fluid dynamics (CFD). This report documents the results of the above experiment that specifically address the first three goals. Multiple wing configurations were tested at a chord Reynolds number of 2.4 million. Flow patterns on the surface of the wings and in the region of the wing/fuselage juncture were examined using oil- flow visualization and infrared thermography. A limited number of unsteady pressure sensors on the fuselage around the wing leading and trailing edges were used to identify any dynamic effects of the horseshoe vortex on the flow field. The area of separated flow in the wing/fuselage juncture near the wing trailing edge was observed for all wing configurations at various angles of attack. All of the test objectives were met. The staff of the 14- by 22-foot Subsonic Wind Tunnel provided outstanding support and delivered

  12. The efficacy of serostatus disclosure for HIV Transmission risk reduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Connell, Ann A; Reed, Sandra J; Serovich, Julianne A

    2015-02-01

    Interventions to assist HIV+ persons in disclosing their serostatus to sexual partners can play an important role in curbing rates of HIV transmission among men who have sex with men (MSM). Based on the methods of Pinkerton and Galletly (AIDS Behav 11:698-705, 2007), we develop a mathematical probability model for evaluating effectiveness of serostatus disclosure in reducing the risk of HIV transmission and extend the model to examine the impact of serosorting. In baseline data from 164 HIV+ MSM participating in a randomized controlled trial of a disclosure intervention, disclosure is associated with a 45.0 % reduction in the risk of HIV transmission. Accounting for serosorting, a 61.2 % reduction in risk due to disclosure was observed in serodisconcordant couples. The reduction in risk for seroconcordant couples was 38.4 %. Evidence provided supports the value of serostatus disclosure as a risk reduction strategy in HIV+ MSM. Interventions to increase serostatus disclosure and that address serosorting behaviors are needed.

  13. Monitoring and modelling for landslide risk mitigation and reduction. The case study of San Benedetto Ullano (Northern Calabria - Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terranova, Oreste G.; Greco, Venanzio R.; Gariano, Stefano L.; Pascale, Stefania; Rago, Valeria; Caloiero, Paola; Iovine, Giulio G. R.

    2016-04-01

    movements caused severe damage to roads and infrastructure. The second crisis ended up in late June: the hydrological model FLaIR was then successfully tested against the known dates of activation of the slope movement, by using a local rain series [3]. Meanwhile, technical support was being assured to the Municipality to optimize geological prospections, monitoring, and design of remedial works of a master plan. A third activation occurred during the night of 15 March 2013, when planned remedial works had not been completed yet. By applying the hydrological model SAKe [4, 5], this activation could be predicted, again permitting the prompt adoption of mitigation measures. Such activation was triggered by rains smaller and shorter than those that caused previous activations, perhaps indicating an apparent increasing fragility of the slope. Changes in slope stability conditions before and after the construction of the remedial works are being investigated. Critical rain conditions and groundwater levels for landslide activation are in fact expected to change, depending on combined effects of natural weakening vs. artificial strengthening. Monitoring will allow to quantitatively verify the new relationships between rainfall, groundwater and slope stability. References [1] Iovine G., Iaquinta P. & Terranova O. (2009). In Anderssen, Braddock & Newham (Eds.), Proc. 18th World IMACS Congr. and MODSIM09 Int. Congr. on Modelling and Simulation, pp. 2686-2693. [2] Iovine G., Lollino P., Gariano S.L. & Terranova O.G. (2010). NHESS, 10, 2341-2354. [3] Capparelli G., Iaquinta P., Iovine G., Terranova O.G. & Versace P. (2012). Natural Hazards, 61(1), pp.247-256. [4] Terranova O.G., Iaquinta P., Gariano S.L., Greco R. & Iovine G. (2013) In: Landslide Science and Practice, Margottini, Canuti, Sassa (Eds.), Vol. 3, pp.73-79. [5] Terranova O.G., Gariano S.L., Iaquinta P. & Iovine G.G.R. (2015). Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 1955-1978.

  14. Dynamic behavior of potentially unstable soils and application of model for seismic risk reduction from liquefaction occurrence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sheshov, Vlatko

    2002-11-01

    Throughout the last decades, liquefaction phenomenon has been one of the most frequently discussed subjects in geotechnical earthquake engineering. Liquefaction has been a problem arousing considerable attention among the world scientists. The consequences from liquefaction occurrence have been present after each stronger earthquake. We have been witnesses of several strong earthquakes (Kobe - Japan, Chi Chi-Taiwan, Bhuj-India) that have occurred in the last decade. In these earthquakes, the liquefaction phenomenon caused severe damage to structures, loss of their functioning and indirect loss of human lives. Liquefaction as a phenomenon should not arouse fear but should call for serious elaboration and attention instead. The destructive nature of liquefaction could be mitigated, i.e., overcome in two ways: avoiding construction at locations characterized by high liquefaction potential which is not always possible and taking of measures for improvement of foundation soil. Finding out suitable measures for improvement of soil and thus mitigating the liquefaction potential has been the main incentive for the elaboration of this dissertation. The dissipation method involving the use of vertical drains as one of the measures for improvement of soils has been elaborated in details in this scientific work. The doctoral dissertation has been realized through experimental and analytical investigations. The experimental investigations done in the first phase represent model seismic shaking table tests of the efficiency of vertical drains (prefabricated and gravel drains). The analytical investigations in this phase have involved mathematical simulation of the effect of vertical drains upon pore pressure state during the experiments. The second phase of the experimental investigations has involved model tests of the behavior of pile foundations in soils susceptible to liquefaction with installed prefabricated drains. In this phase, the 'p - y' relationships have been

  15. Incentivising flood risk adaptation through risk based insurance premiums : Trade-offs between affordability and risk reduction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hudson, Paul F.; Botzen, W.J.W.; Feyen, L.; Aerts, Jeroen C.J.H.

    2016-01-01

    The financial incentives offered by the risk-based pricing of insurance can stimulate policyholder adaptation to flood risk while potentially conflicting with affordability. We examine the trade-off between risk reduction and affordability in a model of public-private flood insurance in France and

  16. POLLUTION PREVENTION RESEARCH ONGOING - EPA'S RISK REDUCTION ENGINEERING LABORATORY

    Science.gov (United States)

    The mission of the Risk Reduction Engineering Laboratory is to advance the understanding, development and application of engineering solutions for the prevention or reduction of risks from environmental contamination. This mission is accomplished through basic and applied researc...

  17. Adaptation of an HIV behavioural disinhibition risk reduction ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Adaptation of an HIV behavioural disinhibition risk reduction intervention for ... disinhibition risk reduction interventions for recently circumcised men for use in clinic ... medicine HIV prevention technologies into the male circumcision contexts.

  18. Modeling for the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario-generation, propagation, inundation, and currents in ports and harbors: Chapter D in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    ,

    2013-01-01

    This U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Open-File report presents a compilation of tsunami modeling studies for the Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) tsunami scenario. These modeling studies are based on an earthquake source specified by the SAFRR tsunami source working group (Kirby and others, 2013). The modeling studies in this report are organized into three groups. The first group relates to tsunami generation. The effects that source discretization and horizontal displacement have on tsunami initial conditions are examined in section 1 (Whitmore and others). In section 2 (Ryan and others), dynamic earthquake rupture models are explored in modeling tsunami generation. These models calculate slip distribution and vertical displacement of the seafloor as a result of realistic fault friction, physical properties of rocks surrounding the fault, and dynamic stresses resolved on the fault. The second group of papers relates to tsunami propagation and inundation modeling. Section 3 (Thio) presents a modeling study for the entire California coast that includes runup and inundation modeling where there is significant exposure and estimates of maximum velocity and momentum flux at the shoreline. In section 4 (Borrero and others), modeling of tsunami propagation and high-resolution inundation of critical locations in southern California is performed using the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model and NOAA’s Community Model Interface for Tsunamis (ComMIT) modeling tool. Adjustments to the inundation line owing to fine-scale structures such as levees are described in section 5 (Wilson). The third group of papers relates to modeling of hydrodynamics in ports and harbors. Section 6 (Nicolsky and Suleimani) presents results of the model used at the Alaska Earthquake Information Center for the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, as well as synthetic time series of the modeled tsunami for other selected

  19. 75 FR 76345 - Risk Reduction Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-12-08

    ... application of engineering and management principles, criteria, and techniques to optimize safety. Like risk.../deficiencies, using statistical models that compare the railroad's performance to the industry average or an... and implementation of its RRP utilizing valid mathematical tests or methods that conform to the...

  20. A new multi-disciplinary model for the assessment and reduction of volcanic risk: the example of the island of Vulcano, Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simicevic, Aleksandra; Bonadonna, Costanza; di Traglia, Federico; Rosi, Mauro

    2010-05-01

    Volcanic eruptions are accompanied by numerous hazards which pose short- and long-term threats to people and property. Recent experiences have shown that successful responses to hazard events correlate strongly with the degree to which proactive policies of risk reduction are already in place before an eruption occurs. Effective proactive risk-reduction strategies require contributions from numerous disciplines. A volcanic eruption is not a hazard, per se, but rather an event capable of producing a variety of hazards (e.g. earthquakes, pyroclastic density currents, lava flows, tephra fall, lahars, landslides, gas release, and tsunamis) that can affect the built environment in a variety of ways, over different time scales and with different degrees of intensity. Our proposed model for the assessment and mitigation of exposure-based volcanic risk is mainly based on the compilation of three types of maps: hazard maps, hazard-specific vulnerability maps and exposure-based risk maps. Hazard maps identify the spatial distribution of individual volcanic hazard and it includes both event analysis and impact analysis. Hazard-specific vulnerability maps represent the systematic evaluation of physical vulnerability of the built environment to a range of volcanic phenomena, i.e. spatial distribution of buildings vulnerable to a given hazard based on the analysis of selected building elements. Buildings are classified on the basis of their major components that are relevant for different volcanic hazards, their strength, their construction materials and are defined taking into account the potential damage that each group of building elements (e.g. walls, roof, load-bearing structure) will suffer under a volcanic hazard. All those factors are enumerated in a checklist and are used for the building survey. Hazard-specific vulnerability maps are then overlapped with hazard maps in order to compile exposure-based risk maps and so quantify the potential damage. Such quantification

  1. Measuring the Value of Mortality Risk Reductions in Turkey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tekeşin, Cem; Ara, Shihomi

    2014-01-01

    The willingness to pay (WTP) for mortality risk reduction from four causes (lung cancer, other type of cancer, respiratory disease, traffic accident) are estimated using random parameter logit model with data from choice experiment for three regions in Turkey. The value of statistical life (VSL) estimated for Afsin-Elbistan, Kutahya-Tavsanli, Ankara and the pooled case are found as 0.56, 0.35, 0.46 and 0.49 million Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) adjusted 2012 US dollars (USD). Different types of risk cause different VSL estimates and we found the lung cancer premium of 213% against traffic accident. The effects of one-year-delayed provision of risk-reduction service are the reduction of WTP by 482 TL ($318 in PPP adjusted USD) per person on average, and the disutility from status-quo (zero risk reduction) against alternative is found to be 891 TL ($589 in PPP adjusted USD) per person on average. Senior discounts of VSL are partially determined by status-quo preference and the amount of discount decreases once the status-quo bias is removed. The peak VSL is found to be for the age group 30–39 and the average VSL for the age group is 0.8 million PPP adjusted USD). Turkey’s compliance to European Union (EU) air quality standard will cause welfare gains of total 373 million PPP adjusted USD for our study areas in terms of reduced number of premature mortality. PMID:25000150

  2. Measuring the Value of Mortality Risk Reductions in Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cem Tekeşin

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The willingness to pay (WTP for mortality risk reduction from four causes (lung cancer, other type of cancer, respiratory disease, traffic accident are estimated using random parameter logit model with data from choice experiment for three regions in Turkey. The value of statistical life (VSL estimated for Afsin-Elbistan, Kutahya-Tavsanli, Ankara and the pooled case are found as 0.56, 0.35, 0.46 and 0.49 million Purchasing Power Parity (PPP adjusted 2012 US dollars (USD. Different types of risk cause different VSL estimates and we found the lung cancer premium of 213% against traffic accident. The effects of one-year-delayed provision of risk-reduction service are the reduction of WTP by 482 TL ($318 in PPP adjusted USD per person on average, and the disutility from status-quo (zero risk reduction against alternative is found to be 891 TL ($589 in PPP adjusted USD per person on average. Senior discounts of VSL are partially determined by status-quo preference and the amount of discount decreases once the status-quo bias is removed. The peak VSL is found to be for the age group 30–39 and the average VSL for the age group is 0.8 million PPP adjusted USD. Turkey’s compliance to European Union (EU air quality standard will cause welfare gains of total 373 million PPP adjusted USD for our study areas in terms of reduced number of premature mortality.

  3. Optimising risk reduction: An expected utility approach for marginal risk reduction during regulatory decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Jiawei; Pollard, Simon; Kendall, Graham; Soane, Emma; Davies, Gareth

    2009-01-01

    In practice, risk and uncertainty are essentially unavoidable in many regulation processes. Regulators frequently face a risk-benefit trade-off since zero risk is neither practicable nor affordable. Although it is accepted that cost-benefit analysis is important in many scenarios of risk management, what role it should play in a decision process is still controversial. One criticism of cost-benefit analysis is that decision makers should consider marginal benefits and costs, not present ones, in their decision making. In this paper, we investigate the problem of regulatory decision making under risk by applying expected utility theory and present a new approach of cost-benefit analysis. Directly taking into consideration the reduction of the risks, this approach achieves marginal cost-benefit analysis. By applying this approach, the optimal regulatory decision that maximizes the marginal benefit of risk reduction can be considered. This provides a transparent and reasonable criterion for stakeholders involved in the regulatory activity. An example of evaluating seismic retrofitting alternatives is provided to demonstrate the potential of the proposed approach.

  4. Relativistic model for statevector reduction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pearle, P.

    1991-04-01

    A relativistic quantum field model describing statevector reduction for fermion states is presented. The time evolution of the states is governed by a Schroedinger equation with a Hamiltonian that has a Hermitian and a non-Hermitian part. In addition to the fermions, the Hermitian part describes positive and negative energy mesons of equal mass, analogous to the longitudinal and timelike photons of electromagnetism. The meson-field-sum is coupled to the fermion field. This ''dresses'' each fermion so that, in the extreme nonrelativistic limit (non-moving fermions), a fermion in a position eigenstate is also in an eigenstate of the meson-field-difference with the Yukawa-potential as eigenvalue. However, the fermions do not interact: this is a theory of free dressed fermions. It is possible to obtain a stationary normalized ''vacuum'' state which satisfies two conditions analogous to the gauge conditions of electromagnetism (i.e., that the meson-field-difference, as well as its time derivative, give zero when applied to the vacuum state), to any desired degree of accuracy. The non-Hermitian part of the Hamiltonian contains the coupling of the meson-field-difference to an externally imposed c-number fluctuating white noise field, of the CSL (Continuous Spontaneous Localization) form. This causes statevector reduction, as is shown in the extreme nonrelativistic limit. For example, a superposition of spatially separated wavepackets of a fermion will eventually be reduced to a single wavepacket: the meson-field-difference discriminates among the Yukawa-potential ''handles'' attached to each wavepacket, thereby selecting one wavepacket to survive by the CSL mechanism. Analysis beyond that given in this paper is required to see what happens when the fermions are allowed to move. (It is possible that the ''vacuum'' state becomes involved in the dynamics so that the ''gauge'' conditions can no longer be maintained.) It is shown how to incorporate these ideas into quantum

  5. Risk factors in limb reduction defects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stoll, C; Alembik, Y; Dott, B; Roth, M P

    1992-07-01

    Risk factors were studied in 123 children with limb reduction defects (LRD) from 118,265 consecutive births of known outcome during the period from 1979 to 1987 in the area which is covered by our registry of congenital malformations. For each case a control was studied. The LRD was localised and classified according to the EUROCAT guide for the description and classification of limb defects. The prevalence of LRD was 1.04 per thousand: 82.9% of the babies were liveborn, 13.0% were late spontaneous abortion or stillborn and termination was performed in 4.0% of the cases. The proportion of males was 0.55. The most common malformations in the 51.2% of children who had at least one other anomaly than LRD were associated cardiac, digestive and renal anomalies. The pregnancy with limb anomalies was more often complicated by oligohydramnios, polyhydramnios and threatened abortion but there were no differences in parental characteristics. However, 9.7% of marriages were consanguineous (P less than 0.01) and the incidence of LRD in first-degree relatives of the children with LRD was high. First-degree relatives also had more non-limb malformations than did those of controls.

  6. Existential risks: exploring a robust risk reduction strategy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jebari, Karim

    2015-06-01

    A small but growing number of studies have aimed to understand, assess and reduce existential risks, or risks that threaten the continued existence of mankind. However, most attention has been focused on known and tangible risks. This paper proposes a heuristic for reducing the risk of black swan extinction events. These events are, as the name suggests, stochastic and unforeseen when they happen. Decision theory based on a fixed model of possible outcomes cannot properly deal with this kind of event. Neither can probabilistic risk analysis. This paper will argue that the approach that is referred to as engineering safety could be applied to reducing the risk from black swan extinction events. It will also propose a conceptual sketch of how such a strategy may be implemented: isolated, self-sufficient, and continuously manned underground refuges. Some characteristics of such refuges are also described, in particular the psychosocial aspects. Furthermore, it is argued that this implementation of the engineering safety strategy safety barriers would be effective and plausible and could reduce the risk of an extinction event in a wide range of possible (known and unknown) scenarios. Considering the staggering opportunity cost of an existential catastrophe, such strategies ought to be explored more vigorously.

  7. Disaster Risks Reduction for Extreme Natural Hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plag, H.; Jules-Plag, S.

    2013-12-01

    Mega disasters associated with extreme natural hazards have the potential to escalate the global sustainability crisis and put us close to the boundaries of the safe operating space for humanity. Floods and droughts are major threats that potentially could reach planetary extent, particularly through secondary economic and social impacts. Earthquakes and tsunamis frequently cause disasters that eventually could exceed the immediate coping capacity of the global economy, particularly since we have built mega cities in hazardous areas that are now ready to be harvested by natural hazards. Unfortunately, the more we learn to cope with the relatively frequent hazards (50 to 100 years events), the less we are worried about the low-probability, high-impact events (a few hundred and more years events). As a consequence, threats from the 500 years flood, drought, volcano eruption are not appropriately accounted for in disaster risk reduction (DRR) discussions. Extreme geohazards have occurred regularly throughout the past, but mostly did not cause major disasters because exposure of human assets to hazards was much lower in the past. The most extreme events that occurred during the last 2,000 years would today cause unparalleled damage on a global scale and could worsen the sustainability crisis. Simulation of these extreme hazards under present conditions can help to assess the disaster risk. Recent extreme earthquakes have illustrated the destruction they can inflict, both directly and indirectly through tsunamis. Large volcano eruptions have the potential to impact climate, anthropogenic infrastructure and resource supplies on global scale. During the last 2,000 years several large volcano eruptions occurred, which under today's conditions are associated with extreme disaster risk. The comparison of earthquakes and volcano eruptions indicates that large volcano eruptions are the low-probability geohazards with potentially the highest impact on our civilization

  8. Time-Weighted Balanced Stochastic Model Reduction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tahavori, Maryamsadat; Shaker, Hamid Reza

    2011-01-01

    A new relative error model reduction technique for linear time invariant (LTI) systems is proposed in this paper. Both continuous and discrete time systems can be reduced within this framework. The proposed model reduction method is mainly based upon time-weighted balanced truncation and a recently...

  9. Building Capacity for Disaster Risk Reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    McAdoo, B. G.; Bryner, V.

    2013-05-01

    Disaster risk is acutely high in many emerging economies due to a combination of geophysical hazards and social and ecological vulnerabilities. The risk associated with natural hazards can be a critical component of a nation's wealth, hence knowledge of these hazards will affect foreign investment in these emergent economies. On the hazard side of the risk profile, geophysicists research the frequency and magnitude of the extant hazards. These geophysicists, both local and foreign, have a responsibility to communicate these risks in the public sphere - whether they are through the mass media, or in personal conversations. Because of this implicit responsibility, it is incumbent upon geophysicists to understand the overall risk, not just the hazards. When it comes to communicating these risks, local scientists are often more effective because they speak the language, understand the social context, and are often connected to various modes of communication unavailable to foreign researchers. Investment in multidisciplinary undergraduate education is critical, as is training of established local scientists in understanding the complexities of risk assessment as well as communicating these risks effectively to broad audiences. Onagawa, Japan. 2011.

  10. Risk Reduction Education: Voices from the Field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamorey, Suzanne

    2010-01-01

    Teens with disabilities need information about risk topics such as addiction, abuse, sex, and delinquency to make healthy choices as they participate in mainstream society. This article presents questionnaire-based information provided by special educators in secondary schools about their efforts, limitations, and needs in providing risk reduction…

  11. Breast and Ovarian Cancer Risk and Risk Reduction in Jewish BRCA1/2 Mutation Carriers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finkelman, Brian S.; Rubinstein, Wendy S.; Friedman, Sue; Friebel, Tara M.; Dubitsky, Shera; Schonberger, Niecee Singer; Shoretz, Rochelle; Singer, Christian F.; Blum, Joanne L.; Tung, Nadine; Olopade, Olufunmilayo I.; Weitzel, Jeffrey N.; Lynch, Henry T.; Snyder, Carrie; Garber, Judy E.; Schildkraut, Joellen; Daly, Mary B.; Isaacs, Claudine; Pichert, Gabrielle; Neuhausen, Susan L.; Couch, Fergus J.; van't Veer, Laura; Eeles, Rosalind; Bancroft, Elizabeth; Evans, D. Gareth; Ganz, Patricia A.; Tomlinson, Gail E.; Narod, Steven A.; Matloff, Ellen; Domchek, Susan; Rebbeck, Timothy R.

    2012-01-01

    Purpose Mutations in BRCA1/2 dramatically increase the risk of both breast and ovarian cancers. Three mutations in these genes (185delAG, 5382insC, and 6174delT) occur at high frequency in Ashkenazi Jews. We evaluated how these common Jewish mutations (CJMs) affect cancer risks and risk reduction. Methods Our cohort comprised 4,649 women with disease-associated BRCA1/2 mutations from 22 centers in the Prevention and Observation of Surgical End Points Consortium. Of these women, 969 were self-identified Jewish women. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate breast and ovarian cancer risks, as well as risk reduction from risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy (RRSO), by CJM and self-identified Jewish status. Results Ninety-one percent of Jewish BRCA1/2-positive women carried a CJM. Jewish women were significantly more likely to undergo RRSO than non-Jewish women (54% v 41%, respectively; odds ratio, 1.87; 95% CI, 1.44 to 2.42). Relative risks of cancer varied by CJM, with the relative risk of breast cancer being significantly lower in 6174delT mutation carriers than in non-CJM BRCA2 carriers (hazard ratio, 0.35; 95% CI, 0.18 to 0.69). No significant difference was seen in cancer risk reduction after RRSO among subgroups. Conclusion Consistent with previous results, risks for breast and ovarian cancer varied by CJM in BRCA1/2 carriers. In particular, 6174delT carriers had a lower risk of breast cancer. This finding requires additional confirmation in larger prospective and population-based cohort studies before being integrated into clinical care. PMID:22430266

  12. On Modeling Risk Shocks

    OpenAIRE

    Dorofeenko, Victor; Lee, Gabriel; Salyer, Kevin; Strobel, Johannes

    2016-01-01

    Within the context of a financial accelerator model, we model time-varying uncertainty (i.e. risk shocks) through the use of a mixture Normal model with time variation in the weights applied to the underlying distributions characterizing entrepreneur productivity. Specifically, we model capital producers (i.e. the entrepreneurs) as either low-risk (relatively small second moment for productivity) and high-risk (relatively large second moment for productivity) and the fraction of both types is...

  13. Social intervention and risk reduction - indirect countermeasures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Higgins, N.A.; Morrey, M.

    1996-01-01

    An indirect countermeasure (IC) is an action which is intended to mitigate detrimental effects experienced by individuals or the community after an accident. Indirect countermeasures (ICs) achieve this, both by averting radiation risks arising from the accident, but by removing or reducing other risks and sources of stress or harm to which the community may be subject. ICs naturally fall into two categories: social action ICs, which range from introducing compensation payments to providing information centres; and risk reducing ICs which mitigate risks to which the population might be exposed, such as radon. By including a consideration of ICs in an assessment of the optimal response, it is likely that a decision maker will become aware of a greater range of harms and benefits that might result from the application of a countermeasure. The decision maker will then be in a better position to judge the appropriateness of any action. (author)

  14. Incentivising flood risk adaptation through ris based insurance premiums: trade-offs between affordability and risk reduction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hudson, P.G.M.B.; Botzen, W.J.W.; Feyen, L.; Aerts, J.C.J.H.

    2016-01-01

    The financial incentives offered by the risk-based pricing of insurance can stimulate policyholder adaptation to flood risk while potentially conflicting with affordability. We examine the trade-off between risk reduction and affordability in a model of public-private flood insurance in France and

  15. Risk reduction for nonmelanoma skin cancer with childhood sunscreen use

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stern, R.S.; Weinstein, M.C.; Baker, S.G.

    1986-01-01

    Exposure to ultraviolet radiation is the principle cause of basal and squamous cell carcinomas of the skin, which are the most frequent tumors occurring in white residents of the United States. Using a mathematical model based on epidemiologic data, we quantified the potential benefits of using a sunscreen with a sun protective factor of 15 and estimate that regular use of such a sunscreen during the first 18 years of life would reduce the lifetime incidence of these tumors by 78%. Additional benefits of sunscreen use during childhood include reduced risk of sunburn, retarding the pace of skin aging, and possible reduction in melanoma risk. We recommend that pediatricians encourage sunscreen use and sun avoidance as a regular part of pediatric preventive health care

  16. Model Reduction of Hybrid Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shaker, Hamid Reza

    gramians. Generalized gramians are the solutions to the observability and controllability Lyapunov inequalities. In the first framework the projection matrices are found based on the common generalized gramians. This framework preserves the stability of the original switched system for all switching...... is guaranteed to be preserved for arbitrary switching signal. To compute the common generalized gramians linear matrix inequalities (LMI’s) need to be solved. These LMI’s are not always feasible. In order to solve the problem of conservatism, the second framework is presented. In this method the projection......High-Technological solutions of today are characterized by complex dynamical models. A lot of these models have inherent hybrid/switching structure. Hybrid/switched systems are powerful models for distributed embedded systems design where discrete controls are applied to continuous processes...

  17. Mission Risk Reduction Regulatory Change Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scroggins, Sharon

    2007-01-01

    NASA Headquarters Environmental Management Division supports NASA's mission to pioneer the future in space exploration, scientific discovery, and aeronautics research by integrating environmental considerations into programs and projects early-on, thereby proactively reducing NASA's exposure to institutional, programmatic and operational risk. As part of this effort, NASA established the Principal Center for Regulatory Risk Analysis and Communication (RRAC PC) as a resource for detecting, analyzing, and communicating environmental regulatory risks to the NASA stakeholder community. The RRAC PC focuses on detecting emerging environmental regulations and other operational change drivers that may pose risks to NASA programs and facilities, and effectively communicating the potential risks. For example, regulatory change may restrict how and where certain activities or operations may be conducted. Regulatory change can also directly affect the ability to use certain materials by mandating a production phase-out or restricting usage applications of certain materials. Regulatory change can result in significant adverse impacts to NASA programs and facilities due to NASA's stringent performance requirements for materials and components related to human-rated space vehicles. Even if a regulation does not directly affect NASA operations, U.S. and international regulations can pose program risks indirectly through requirements levied on manufacturers and vendors of components and materials. For example, manufacturers can change their formulations to comply with new regulatory requirements. Such changes can require time-consuming and costly requalification certification for use in human spaceflight programs. The RRAC PC has implemented a system for proactively managing regulatory change to minimize potential adverse impacts to NASA programs and facilities. This presentation highlights the process utilized by the RRACPC to communicate regulatory change and the associated

  18. Structured building model reduction toward parallel simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dobbs, Justin R. [Cornell University; Hencey, Brondon M. [Cornell University

    2013-08-26

    Building energy model reduction exchanges accuracy for improved simulation speed by reducing the number of dynamical equations. Parallel computing aims to improve simulation times without loss of accuracy but is poorly utilized by contemporary simulators and is inherently limited by inter-processor communication. This paper bridges these disparate techniques to implement efficient parallel building thermal simulation. We begin with a survey of three structured reduction approaches that compares their performance to a leading unstructured method. We then use structured model reduction to find thermal clusters in the building energy model and allocate processing resources. Experimental results demonstrate faster simulation and low error without any interprocessor communication.

  19. Climate change, uncertainty and investment in flood risk reduction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pol, van der T.D.

    2015-01-01

    Economic analysis of flood risk management strategies has become more complex due to climate change. This thesis investigates the impact of climate change on investment in flood risk reduction, and applies optimisation methods to support identification of optimal flood risk management strategies.

  20. Disaster management and risk reduction in South Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Bruwer, A

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The 2015 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction concludes that the mortality and economic loss associated with extensive risks (minor but recurrent disaster risks) in low- and middle-income countries are trending up. In the last decade...

  1. [Day clinic, a gateway towards risk reduction].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ben Nifla, Viviane; Celli, Philippe; Samba, Hélène; Vincent, Cécile

    2018-01-01

    The addictology day clinic at Fernand-Widal hospital in Paris caters mainly for patients suffering from alcohol dependence. The aim is to consolidate the withdrawal which has taken place, to help reduce risks and harm and to support people waiting for follow-up care. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  2. Versions of the Waste Reduction Model (WARM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    This page provides a brief chronology of changes made to EPA’s Waste Reduction Model (WARM), organized by WARM version number. The page includes brief summaries of changes and updates since the previous version.

  3. Documentation for the Waste Reduction Model (WARM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    This page describes the WARM documentation files and provides links to all documentation files associated with EPA’s Waste Reduction Model (WARM). The page includes a brief summary of the chapters documenting the greenhouse gas emission and energy factors.

  4. Household flood risk reduction in the Czech Republic

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Duží, B.; Vikhrov, Dmytro; Kelman, I.; Stojanov, R.; Jakubínský, J.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 20, č. 4 (2015), s. 499-504 ISSN 1381-2386 Institutional support: PRVOUK-P23 Keywords : flood risk reduction * household adaptation * Czech Republic Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 3.085, year: 2015

  5. Household flood risk reduction in the Czech Republic

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Duží, B.; Vikhrov, Dmytro; Kelman, I.; Stojanov, R.; Jakubínský, J.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 20, č. 4 (2015), s. 499-504 ISSN 1381-2386 Institutional support: RVO:67985998 Keywords : flood risk reduction * household adaptation * Czech Republic Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 3.085, year: 2015

  6. Climate change, uncertainty and investment in flood risk reduction

    OpenAIRE

    Pol, van der, T.D.

    2015-01-01

    Economic analysis of flood risk management strategies has become more complex due to climate change. This thesis investigates the impact of climate change on investment in flood risk reduction, and applies optimisation methods to support identification of optimal flood risk management strategies. Chapter 2 provides an overview of cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of flood risk management strategies under climate change uncertainty and new information. CBA is applied to determine optimal dike height...

  7. Resilience and disaster risk reduction: an etymological journey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexander, D. E.

    2013-04-01

    This paper examines the development over historical time of the meaning and uses of the term resilience. The objective is to deepen our understanding of how the term came to be adopted in disaster risk reduction and resolve some of the conflicts and controversies that have arisen when it has been used. The paper traces the development of resilience through the sciences, humanities, and legal and political spheres. It considers how mechanics passed the word to ecology and psychology, and how from there it was adopted by social research and sustainability science. As other authors have noted, as a concept, resilience involves some potentially serious conflicts or contradictions, for example between stability and dynamism, or between dynamic equilibrium (homeostasis) and evolution. Moreover, although the resilience concept works quite well within the confines of General Systems Theory, in situations in which a systems formulation inhibits rather than fosters explanation, a different interpretation of the term is warranted. This may be the case for disaster risk reduction, which involves transformation rather than preservation of the ''state of the system''. The article concludes that the modern conception of resilience derives benefit from a rich history of meanings and applications, but that it is dangerous - or at least potentially disappointing - to read to much into the term as a model and a paradigm. Sagitta in lapidem numquam figitur, interdum resiliens percutit dirigentem. ("An arrow never lodges in a stone: often it recoils upon its sender.") St. John Chrysostom (c. 347-407), Archbishop of Constantinople.

  8. Resilience and disaster risk reduction: an etymological journey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexander, D. E.

    2013-11-01

    This paper examines the development over historical time of the meaning and uses of the term resilience. The objective is to deepen our understanding of how the term came to be adopted in disaster risk reduction and resolve some of the conflicts and controversies that have arisen when it has been used. The paper traces the development of resilience through the sciences, humanities, and legal and political spheres. It considers how mechanics passed the word to ecology and psychology, and how from there it was adopted by social research and sustainability science. As other authors have noted, as a concept, resilience involves some potentially serious conflicts or contradictions, for example between stability and dynamism, or between dynamic equilibrium (homeostasis) and evolution. Moreover, although the resilience concept works quite well within the confines of general systems theory, in situations in which a systems formulation inhibits rather than fosters explanation, a different interpretation of the term is warranted. This may be the case for disaster risk reduction, which involves transformation rather than preservation of the "state of the system". The article concludes that the modern conception of resilience derives benefit from a rich history of meanings and applications, but that it is dangerous - or at least potentially disappointing - to read to much into the term as a model and a paradigm.

  9. Integrated risk reduction framework to improve railway hazardous materials transportation safety

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, Xiang, E-mail: liu94@illinois.edu; Saat, M. Rapik, E-mail: mohdsaat@illinois.edu; Barkan, Christopher P.L., E-mail: cbarkan@illinois.edu

    2013-09-15

    Highlights: • An integrated framework is developed to optimize risk reduction. • A negative binomial regression model is developed to analyze accident-cause-specific railcar derailment probability. • A Pareto-optimality technique is applied to determine the lowest risk given any level of resource. • A multi-attribute decision model is developed to determine the optimal amount of investment for risk reduction. • The models could aid the government and rail industry in developing cost-efficient risk reduction policy and practice. -- Abstract: Rail transportation plays a critical role to safely and efficiently transport hazardous materials. A number of strategies have been implemented or are being developed to reduce the risk of hazardous materials release from train accidents. Each of these risk reduction strategies has its safety benefit and corresponding implementation cost. However, the cost effectiveness of the integration of different risk reduction strategies is not well understood. Meanwhile, there has been growing interest in the U.S. rail industry and government to best allocate resources for improving hazardous materials transportation safety. This paper presents an optimization model that considers the combination of two types of risk reduction strategies, broken rail prevention and tank car safety design enhancement. A Pareto-optimality technique is used to maximize risk reduction at a given level of investment. The framework presented in this paper can be adapted to address a broader set of risk reduction strategies and is intended to assist decision makers for local, regional and system-wide risk management of rail hazardous materials transportation.

  10. Hierarchical decision making for flood risk reduction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Custer, Rocco; Nishijima, Kazuyoshi

    2013-01-01

    . In current practice, structures are often optimized individually without considering benefits of having a hierarchy of protection structures. It is here argued, that the joint consideration of hierarchically integrated protection structures is beneficial. A hierarchical decision model is utilized to analyze...... and compare the benefit of large upstream protection structures and local downstream protection structures in regard to epistemic uncertainty parameters. Results suggest that epistemic uncertainty influences the outcome of the decision model and that, depending on the magnitude of epistemic uncertainty...

  11. Hydrogen risk reduction in Nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Movahed, M.A.; Travis, J.R.

    1999-01-01

    In case of a severe accident in a nuclear power plant with core melt and hydrogen production, the hydrogen risk is one of the main concerns. It may jeopardize the containment integrity due to violent deflagration that can lead to DDT (Deflagration Detonation Transient) or even detonation of proper hydrogen mitigation means are not available. The design of the EPR (European Pressurized water Reactor) Hydrogen mitigation and control system is based on the lumped parameter code WAVCO and the 3D code GASFLOW. The concept consists of recombiners and igniters to cope with all scenarios including those without steam. The system has been checked to avoid DDT by the 7λ criteria that's implemented in GASFLOW. Future analysis could deal with determining dynamic pressure loads, if appropriate, and some sensitivity studies to check the hydrogen control measures with respect to different source locations and mass flow rates. Also a conditional criterion for determining the likelihood of fast deflagration should be developed. (author)

  12. Using a systematic conceptual model for a process evaluation of a middle school obesity risk-reduction nutrition curriculum intervention: choice, control & change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Heewon; Contento, Isobel R; Koch, Pamela

    2013-03-01

    To use and review a conceptual model of process evaluation and to examine the implementation of a nutrition education curriculum, Choice, Control & Change, designed to promote dietary and physical activity behaviors that reduce obesity risk. A process evaluation study based on a systematic conceptual model. Five middle schools in New York City. Five hundred sixty-two students in 20 classes and their science teachers (n = 8). Based on the model, teacher professional development, teacher implementation, and student reception were evaluated. Also measured were teacher characteristics, teachers' curriculum evaluation, and satisfaction with teaching the curriculum. Descriptive statistics and Spearman ρ correlation for quantitative analysis and content analysis for qualitative data were used. Mean score of the teacher professional development evaluation was 4.75 on a 5-point scale. Average teacher implementation rate was 73%, and the student reception rate was 69%. Ongoing teacher support was highly valued by teachers. Teacher satisfaction with teaching the curriculum was highly correlated with student satisfaction (P Teacher perception of amount of student work was negatively correlated with implementation and with student satisfaction (P < .05). Use of a systematic conceptual model and comprehensive process measures improves understanding of the implementation process and helps educators to better implement interventions as designed. Copyright © 2013 Society for Nutrition Education and Behavior. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. [Enteral nutrition: reduction in the contamination risk].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montemerlo, H; Menéndez, A M; Marcenac, F; Floridia, J; Esteban, L; Barbaricca, M

    1996-01-01

    Enteral nutrition is used as a routine therapy in patients with caloric-protein malnutrition, severe dysphagia, major burns, intestinal resection, and enterocutaneous fistulae, as long as a portion of the digestive tract still has an active absorptive function. The administration takes place by means of surgical (ostomies) or non-surgical (nasogastric) tubes. In our country, a significant number of hospitalized patients with various diseases receive this type of nutrition. Given that the colonization of the digestive tract by hospital flora is the first step towards developing intra-hospital infections, the contamination implies serious risks. The objective of this study was to study the most appropriate conditions for the manufacturing, storage and administration of the mixture of nutrients of enteral nutrition, to guarantee nutrition with a lower contamination risk. This study was conducted by the Unit of Nutritional Assistance of the Mater Dei Clinic, by means of bacteriological controls, from January 1991 to December 1992, and in 1993 in which the work systematics were reviewed. The study was prospective, and those solutions whose bacteriological counts were lower than 100.000 colony forming units (CFU), and which showed an absence of enteropathological micro-organisms, were considered acceptable, and those solutions which had a bacteriological count greater than or equal to 100.000 CFU and or the presence of enteropathological micro-organisms, were considered unacceptable. During the first period, "usual working conditions", we analyzed the infra-structure, the personnel, the constituents, and the apparatus used in the manufacturing, for which 36 samples were studied at t0 (moment of preparation). Afterwards, in the second period "special working conditions", we analyzed the manufacturing procedures, the storage and the administration of 103 solutions, corresponding to 36 patients, taking samples at t0 and t24 (after 24 hours of preparing). In the first phase

  14. Communication about melanoma and risk reduction after melanoma diagnosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez, Vivian M; Berwick, Marianne; Hay, Jennifer L

    2017-12-01

    Melanoma patients are advised to perform regular risk-reduction practices, including sun protection as well as skin self-examinations (SSEs) and physician-led examinations. Melanoma-specific communication regarding family risk and screening may promote such behaviors. To this end, associations between patients' melanoma-specific communication and risk reduction were examined. Melanoma patients (N = 169) drawn from a population-based cancer registry reported their current risk-reduction practices, perceived risk of future melanoma, and communication with physicians and relatives about melanoma risk and screening. Patients were, on average, 56 years old and 6.7 years' post diagnosis; 51% were male, 93% reported "fair/very fair" skin color, 75% completed at least some college, and 22% reported a family history of melanoma. Patients reported varying levels of regular (always/nearly always) sun protection: sunscreen use (79%), shade seeking (60%), hat use (54%), and long-sleeve shirt use (30%). Only 28% performed thorough SSE regularly, whereas 92% reported undergoing physician-led skin examinations within the past year. Participants who were female, younger, and had a higher perceived risk of future melanoma were more likely to report past communication. In adjusted analyses, communication remained uniquely associated with increased sunscreen use and SSE. Encouraging melanoma patients to have a more active role in discussions concerning melanoma risk and screening with relatives and physicians alike may be a useful strategy to promote 2 key risk-reduction practices post melanoma diagnosis and treatment. Future research is needed to identify additional strategies to improve comprehensive risk reduction in long-term melanoma patients. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  15. Melanoma Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing melanoma cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  16. Children capacity in disaster risk reduction: A call for action

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leila Mohammadinia

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Disasters have various physical, psychological, social and economical effects on all age group, particularly children who are more vulnerable than adults. In the aftermath of disasters, children like pregnant women, elderly and handicaps are special group with special needs. This is because they are at greater risk based on their specific physiological and psychological characteristics. Moreover,, according to the Sendai document, children need more attention in Disaster Risk Reduction (DRRprograms design, policies implementation with a proactive approach in Disaster Risk Reduction (1. In the Sendai document it is emphasized that policies regarding disaster risk reduction, cognition and risk perception about the risk property should be considered based upon the hazards and the environment in terms of vulnerability, capacity and exposure (2.Hyogo framework for action was also already have been focused on child priority on the legislation program (3. Accordingly, it is necessary to involve children in disaster risk reduction programs actively in order to overcome their needs and their problems (4. As children are more affected groups in various aspects of disasters in most countries, their potential utilization, the conditions and space should be provided based on laws, national policies, training and capacity. Although after disaster children required particular needs and attention(5-6, they should be considered as an active group who could participate in DRR program and help their family and also the community.(4, 7 Some evidences suggest on value of children team working for community preparedness. Iran had a successful experience for using adolescence capacity as a pillar in activation of early warning; including notification announced while observing the rising sea levels for local community in order to reduce the risk of flood disaster at a local area in the North of Iran. According to the Hyogo and the Sendai documents, it seems that using

  17. Credit Risk Modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lando, David

    Credit risk is today one of the most intensely studied topics in quantitative finance. This book provides an introduction and overview for readers who seek an up-to-date reference to the central problems of the field and to the tools currently used to analyze them. The book is aimed at researchers...... and students in finance, at quantitative analysts in banks and other financial institutions, and at regulators interested in the modeling aspects of credit risk. David Lando considers the two broad approaches to credit risk analysis: that based on classical option pricing models on the one hand...

  18. Effect of smoking reduction on lung cancer risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Godtfredsen, Nina S; Prescott, Eva; Osler, Merete

    2005-01-01

    Many smokers are unable or unwilling to completely quit smoking. A proposed means of harm reduction is to reduce the number of cigarettes smoked per day. However, it is not clear whether this strategy decreases the risk for tobacco-related diseases.......Many smokers are unable or unwilling to completely quit smoking. A proposed means of harm reduction is to reduce the number of cigarettes smoked per day. However, it is not clear whether this strategy decreases the risk for tobacco-related diseases....

  19. Relativistic dynamical reduction models and nonlocality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghirardi, G.C.; Grassi, R.

    1990-09-01

    We discuss some features of continuous dynamical models yielding state vector reduction and we briefly sketch some recent attempts to get a relativistic generalization of them. Within the relativistic context we analyze in detail the local an nonlocal features of the reduction mechanism and we investigate critically the possibility of attributing objective properties to individual systems in the micro and macroscopic cases. At the nonrelativistic level, two physically equivalent versions of continuous reduction mechanisms have been presented. However, only one of them can be taken as a starting point for the above considered relativistic generalization. By resorting to counterfactual arguments we show that the reason for this lies in the fact that the stochasticity involved in the two approaches has different conceptual implications. (author). 7 refs, 4 figs

  20. Farmers Prone to Drought Risk: Why Some Farmers Undertake Farm-Level Risk-Reduction Measures While Others Not?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gebrehiwot, Tagel; van der Veen, Anne

    2015-03-01

    This research investigates farmers' cognitive perceptions of risk and the behavioral intentions to undertake farm-level risk-reduction measures. It has been observed that people who are susceptible to natural hazards often fail to act, or do very little, to protect their assets or lives. To answer the question of why some people show adaptive behavior while others do not, a socio-psychological model of precautionary adaptation based on protection motivation theory and trans-theoretical stage model has been applied for the first time to areas of drought risk in the developing countries cultural context. The applicability of the integrated model is explored by means of a representative sample survey of smallholder farmers in northern Ethiopia. The result of the study showed that there is a statistically significant association between farmer's behavioral intention to undertake farm-level risk-reduction measures and the main important protection motivation model variables. High perceived vulnerability, severity of consequences, self-efficacy, and response efficacy lead to higher levels of behavioral intentions to undertake farm-level risk-reduction measures. For farmers in the action stage, self-efficacy and response efficacy were the main motivators of behavioral intention. For farmers in the contemplative stage, self-efficacy and cost appear to be the main motivators for them to act upon risk reduction, while perceived severity of consequences and cost of response actions were found to be important for farmers in the pre-contemplative stage.

  1. Exact model reduction of combinatorial reaction networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fey Dirk

    2008-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Receptors and scaffold proteins usually possess a high number of distinct binding domains inducing the formation of large multiprotein signaling complexes. Due to combinatorial reasons the number of distinguishable species grows exponentially with the number of binding domains and can easily reach several millions. Even by including only a limited number of components and binding domains the resulting models are very large and hardly manageable. A novel model reduction technique allows the significant reduction and modularization of these models. Results We introduce methods that extend and complete the already introduced approach. For instance, we provide techniques to handle the formation of multi-scaffold complexes as well as receptor dimerization. Furthermore, we discuss a new modeling approach that allows the direct generation of exactly reduced model structures. The developed methods are used to reduce a model of EGF and insulin receptor crosstalk comprising 5,182 ordinary differential equations (ODEs to a model with 87 ODEs. Conclusion The methods, presented in this contribution, significantly enhance the available methods to exactly reduce models of combinatorial reaction networks.

  2. Risk reduction by combining nature values with flood protection?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Van Loon-Steensma Jantsje M.

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In the Netherlands, the concept of a multifunctional dike has already often been implemented, and has been identified as a promising climate adaptation measure. In a multifunctional dike, functions like urban development, transport infrastructure, recreation, agriculture or nature are deliberately combined with its primary flood protection function. This means that the design must be based on the requirements and life span of all different functions, while in a monofunctional dike only the flood protection function is considered. By accommodating other functions, a multifunctional dike may easier fit into, or even contribute to the quality of the landscape. Moreover, these other functions may help in financing the flood protection works, but governance is more complicated. To avoid costly adjustments forthcoming from changed safety standards, incorporation of multiple functions can require a more “robust” flood defence than a monofunctional flood defence. A robust flood defence can withstand more extreme situations than required by the present safety standards, and has a substantially lower flooding probability. Therefore, a multifunctional dike may be attractive in view of the uncertainties regarding the effects of climate change and a changing world. Moreover, it will result in reduced flood risk. As part of the Dutch Delta programme, several explorative studies on multifunctional dikes were initiated. Most studies focused on urban areas, but also in the rural area interest emerged for multifunctional dikes, e.g. for the integration of salt marshes into the flood defences. Marshes provide valuable habitat for vegetation and invertebrate species, and are important for wading birds. Furthermore, under condition of abundant sediment availability they can keep pace with sea level rise. Explorative modelling results indicate that vegetated forelands affect wave heights, even under extreme conditions. However, the inclusion of a vegetated

  3. Common pitfalls in statistical analysis: Absolute risk reduction, relative risk reduction, and number needed to treat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ranganathan, Priya; Pramesh, C. S.; Aggarwal, Rakesh

    2016-01-01

    In the previous article in this series on common pitfalls in statistical analysis, we looked at the difference between risk and odds. Risk, which refers to the probability of occurrence of an event or outcome, can be defined in absolute or relative terms. Understanding what these measures represent is essential for the accurate interpretation of study results. PMID:26952180

  4. Effect of smoking reduction on lung cancer risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Godtfredsen, Nina S; Prescott, Eva; Osler, Merete

    2005-01-01

    Many smokers are unable or unwilling to completely quit smoking. A proposed means of harm reduction is to reduce the number of cigarettes smoked per day. However, it is not clear whether this strategy decreases the risk for tobacco-related diseases....

  5. Investigating the risk reduction potential of disaster insurance across Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Surminski, Swenja; Hudson, Paul

    2017-01-01

    The notion that insurance can play a significant role in risk reduction has recently gained increasing attention in the wake of rising losses from natural disasters. While this notion is accepted in theory, we notice that, in practice, little is known about if and how insurance promotes efforts to

  6. Sexual risk reduction among Zambian couples | Jones | SAHARA-J ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Zambia has over 1 million HIV infections nationwide and an urban prevalence rate of 23%. This study compared the impact of male involvement in multiple and single session risk reduction interventions among inconsistent condom users in Zambia and the role of serostatus among HIV-seropositive and serodiscordant ...

  7. Modeling the economics of LLW volume reduction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Voth, M.H.; Witzig, W.F.

    1986-01-01

    Generators of low-level (radioactive) waste (LLW) are under pressure to implement volume reduction (VR) programs for political and economic reasons. Political reasons include the appearance of generating less waste or meeting quotas. Economic reasons include avoiding high disposal costs and associated surcharges. Volume reduction results in less total volume over which fixed disposal costs are allocated and therefore higher unit costs for disposal. As numerous small compacts are developed, this often overlooked effect becomes more pronounced. The described model presents two unique significant features. First, a feedback loop considers the impact of VR on disposal rates, and second, it appeals to logic without extensive knowledge of VR technology or computer modeling. The latter feature is especially useful in conveying information to students and nontechnical decision makers, demonstrating the impact of each of a complicated set of variables with reproducible results

  8. Model Reduction using Vorobyev Moment Problem

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Strakoš, Zdeněk

    2009-01-01

    Roč. 51, č. 3 (2009), s. 363-379 ISSN 1017-1398 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA100300802 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10300504 Keywords : matching moments * model reduction * Krylov subspace methods * conjugate gradient method * Lanczos method * Arnoldi method * Gauss-Christoffel quadrature * scattering amplitude Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 0.716, year: 2009

  9. Breast cancer risks and risk prediction models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engel, Christoph; Fischer, Christine

    2015-02-01

    BRCA1/2 mutation carriers have a considerably increased risk to develop breast and ovarian cancer. The personalized clinical management of carriers and other at-risk individuals depends on precise knowledge of the cancer risks. In this report, we give an overview of the present literature on empirical cancer risks, and we describe risk prediction models that are currently used for individual risk assessment in clinical practice. Cancer risks show large variability between studies. Breast cancer risks are at 40-87% for BRCA1 mutation carriers and 18-88% for BRCA2 mutation carriers. For ovarian cancer, the risk estimates are in the range of 22-65% for BRCA1 and 10-35% for BRCA2. The contralateral breast cancer risk is high (10-year risk after first cancer 27% for BRCA1 and 19% for BRCA2). Risk prediction models have been proposed to provide more individualized risk prediction, using additional knowledge on family history, mode of inheritance of major genes, and other genetic and non-genetic risk factors. User-friendly software tools have been developed that serve as basis for decision-making in family counseling units. In conclusion, further assessment of cancer risks and model validation is needed, ideally based on prospective cohort studies. To obtain such data, clinical management of carriers and other at-risk individuals should always be accompanied by standardized scientific documentation.

  10. Long-Term International Space Station (ISS) Risk Reduction Activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fodroci, M. P.; Gafka, G. K.; Lutomski, M. G.; Maher, J. S.

    2012-01-01

    As the assembly of the ISS nears completion, it is worthwhile to step back and review some of the actions pursued by the Program in recent years to reduce risk and enhance the safety and health of ISS crewmembers, visitors, and space flight participants. While the initial ISS requirements and design were intended to provide the best practicable levels of safety, it is always possible to further reduce risk - given the determination, commitment, and resources to do so. The following is a summary of some of the steps taken by the ISS Program Manager, by our International Partners, by hardware and software designers, by operational specialists, and by safety personnel to continuously enhance the safety of the ISS, and to reduce risk to all crewmembers. While years of work went into the development of ISS requirements, there are many things associated with risk reduction in a Program like the ISS that can only be learned through actual operational experience. These risk reduction activities can be divided into roughly three categories: Areas that were initially noncompliant which have subsequently been brought into compliance or near compliance (i.e., Micrometeoroid and Orbital Debris [MMOD] protection, acoustics) Areas where initial design requirements were eventually considered inadequate and were subsequently augmented (i.e., Toxicity Hazard Level- 4 [THL] materials, emergency procedures, emergency equipment, control of drag-throughs) Areas where risks were initially underestimated, and have subsequently been addressed through additional mitigation (i.e., Extravehicular Activity [EVA] sharp edges, plasma shock hazards) Due to the hard work and cooperation of many parties working together across the span of more than a decade, the ISS is now a safer and healthier environment for our crew, in many cases exceeding the risk reduction targets inherent in the intent of the original design. It will provide a safe and stable platform for utilization and discovery for years

  11. Integrated risk reduction framework to improve railway hazardous materials transportation safety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xiang; Saat, M Rapik; Barkan, Christopher P L

    2013-09-15

    Rail transportation plays a critical role to safely and efficiently transport hazardous materials. A number of strategies have been implemented or are being developed to reduce the risk of hazardous materials release from train accidents. Each of these risk reduction strategies has its safety benefit and corresponding implementation cost. However, the cost effectiveness of the integration of different risk reduction strategies is not well understood. Meanwhile, there has been growing interest in the U.S. rail industry and government to best allocate resources for improving hazardous materials transportation safety. This paper presents an optimization model that considers the combination of two types of risk reduction strategies, broken rail prevention and tank car safety design enhancement. A Pareto-optimality technique is used to maximize risk reduction at a given level of investment. The framework presented in this paper can be adapted to address a broader set of risk reduction strategies and is intended to assist decision makers for local, regional and system-wide risk management of rail hazardous materials transportation. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Quantitative Risk reduction estimation Tool For Control Systems, Suggested Approach and Research Needs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miles McQueen; Wayne Boyer; Mark Flynn; Sam Alessi

    2006-03-01

    For the past year we have applied a variety of risk assessment technologies to evaluate the risk to critical infrastructure from cyber attacks on control systems. More recently, we identified the need for a stand alone control system risk reduction estimation tool to provide owners and operators of control systems with a more useable, reliable, and credible method for managing the risks from cyber attack. Risk is defined as the probability of a successful attack times the value of the resulting loss, typically measured in lives and dollars. Qualitative and ad hoc techniques for measuring risk do not provide sufficient support for cost benefit analyses associated with cyber security mitigation actions. To address the need for better quantitative risk reduction models we surveyed previous quantitative risk assessment research; evaluated currently available tools; developed new quantitative techniques [17] [18]; implemented a prototype analysis tool to demonstrate how such a tool might be used; used the prototype to test a variety of underlying risk calculational engines (e.g. attack tree, attack graph); and identified technical and research needs. We concluded that significant gaps still exist and difficult research problems remain for quantitatively assessing the risk to control system components and networks, but that a useable quantitative risk reduction estimation tool is not beyond reach.

  13. Comparison of a theory-based (AIDS Risk Reduction Model) cognitive behavioral intervention versus enhanced counseling for abused ethnic minority adolescent women on infection with sexually transmitted infection: results of a randomized controlled trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Champion, Jane Dimmitt; Collins, Jennifer L

    2012-02-01

    Ethnic minority adolescent women with a history of sexual or physical abuse and sexually transmitted infections represent a vulnerable population at risk for HIV. Community-based interventions for behavior modification and subsequent risk reduction have not been effective among these women. To evaluate the effects of a theory-based (AIDS Risk Reduction Model) cognitive behavioral intervention model versus enhanced counseling for abused ethnic minority adolescent women on infection with sexually transmitted infection at 6 and 12 months follow-up. Controlled randomized trial with longitudinal follow-up. Southwestern United States, Metropolitan community-based clinic. Mexican-and-African American adolescent women aged 14-18 years with a history of abuse or sexually transmitted infection seeking sexual health care. Extensive preliminary study for intervention development was conducted including individual interviews, focus groups, secondary data analysis, pre-testing and feasibility testing for modification of an evidence-based intervention prior to testing in the randomized controlled trial. Following informed consents for participation in the trial, detailed interviews concerning demographics, abuse history, sexual risk behavior, sexual health and physical exams were obtained. Randomization into either control or intervention groups was conducted. Intervention participants received workshop, support group and individual counseling sessions. Control participants received abuse and enhanced clinical counseling. Follow-up including detailed interview and physical exam was conducted at 6 and 12 months following study entry to assess for infection. Intention to treat analysis was conducted to assess intervention effects using chi-square and multiple regression models. 409 Mexican-(n=342) and African-(n=67) American adolescent women with abuse and sexually transmitted infection histories were enrolled; 90% intervention group attendance; longitudinal follow-up at 6 (93

  14. A practical approach to assess depression risk and to guide risk reduction strategies in later life.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almeida, Osvaldo P; Alfonso, Helman; Pirkis, Jane; Kerse, Ngaire; Sim, Moira; Flicker, Leon; Snowdon, John; Draper, Brian; Byrne, Gerard; Goldney, Robert; Lautenschlager, Nicola T; Stocks, Nigel; Scazufca, Marcia; Huisman, Martijn; Araya, Ricardo; Pfaff, Jon

    2011-03-01

    Many factors have been associated with the onset and maintenance of depressive symptoms in later life, although this knowledge is yet to be translated into significant health gains for the population. This study gathered information about common modifiable and non-modifiable risk factors for depression with the aim of developing a practical probabilistic model of depression that can be used to guide risk reduction strategies. A cross-sectional study was undertaken of 20,677 community-dwelling Australians aged 60 years or over in contact with their general practitioner during the preceding 12 months. Prevalent depression (minor or major) according to the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9) assessment was the main outcome of interest. Other measured exposures included self-reported age, gender, education, loss of mother or father before age 15 years, physical or sexual abuse before age 15 years, marital status, financial stress, social support, smoking and alcohol use, physical activity, obesity, diabetes, hypertension, and prevalent cardiovascular diseases, chronic respiratory diseases and cancer. The mean age of participants was 71.7 ± 7.6 years and 57.9% were women. Depression was present in 1665 (8.0%) of our subjects. Multivariate logistic regression showed depression was independently associated with age older than 75 years, childhood adverse experiences, adverse lifestyle practices (smoking, risk alcohol use, physical inactivity), intermediate health hazards (obesity, diabetes and hypertension), comorbid medical conditions (clinical history of coronary heart disease, stroke, asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, emphysema or cancers), and social or financial strain. We stratified the exposures to build a matrix that showed that the probability of depression increased progressively with the accumulation of risk factors, from less than 3% for those with no adverse factors to more than 80% for people reporting the maximum number of risk factors. Our

  15. Models of Credit Risk Measurement

    OpenAIRE

    Hagiu Alina

    2011-01-01

    Credit risk is defined as that risk of financial loss caused by failure by the counterparty. According to statistics, for financial institutions, credit risk is much important than market risk, reduced diversification of the credit risk is the main cause of bank failures. Just recently, the banking industry began to measure credit risk in the context of a portfolio along with the development of risk management started with models value at risk (VAR). Once measured, credit risk can be diversif...

  16. Constructing a holistic approach to disaster risk reduction: the significance of focusing on vulnerability reduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palliyaguru, Roshani; Amaratunga, Dilanthi; Baldry, David

    2014-01-01

    As a result of the increase in natural disaster losses, policy-makers, practitioners, and members of the research community around the world are seeking effective and efficient means of overcoming or minimising them. Although various theoretical constructs are beneficial to understanding the disaster phenomenon and the means of minimising losses, the disaster risk management process becomes less effective if theory and practice are set apart from one another. Consequently, this paper seeks to establish a relationship between two theoretical constructs, 'disaster risk reduction (DRR)' and 'vulnerability reduction', and to develop a holistic approach to DRR with particular reference to improving its applicability in practical settings. It is based on a literature review and on an overall understanding gained through two case studies of post-disaster infrastructure reconstruction projects in Sri Lanka and three expert interviews in Sri Lanka and the United Kingdom. © 2014 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2014.

  17. Assessment of aircraft risk reduction at Pantex Plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin, Y.T.; Hedtke, R.; Fike, D.; Diniz, J.

    1996-01-01

    The possibility of an aircraft crashing into the Department of Energy's (DOE) Pantex plant facility has been of concern in risk assessments. In response to public concerns, and in an effort to reduce risks associated with overflights of Pantex, several changes to navigational aids at Amarillo International Airport have been implemented. For over one year, a radar airspace monitor and recording system has been connected to the airport surveillance radar at Amarillo to record the flight paths, aircraft types, and traffic density of aircraft in the vicinity of the Pantex plant. The data has provided a better understanding of the overflight risk at Pantex as well as a means to measure the effectiveness of risk reduction efforts

  18. Levelized cost-risk reduction prioritization of waste disposal options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilkinson, V.K.; Young, J.M.

    1992-01-01

    The prioritization of solid waste disposal options in terms of reduced risk to workers, the public, and the environment has recently generated considerable governmental and public interest. In this paper we address the development of a methodology to establish priorities for waste disposal options, such as incineration, landfills, long-term storage, waste minimization, etc. The study is one result of an overall project to develop methodologies for Probabilistic Risk Assessments (PRAs) of non-reactor nuclear facilities for the US Department of Energy. Option preferences are based on a levelized cost-risk reduction analysis. Option rankings are developed as functions of disposal option cost and timing, relative long- and short-term risks, and possible accident scenarios. We examine the annual costs and risks for each option over a large number of years. Risk, in this paper, is defined in terms of annual fatalities (both prompt and long-term) and environmental restoration costs that might result from either an accidental release or long-term exposure to both plant workers and the public near the site or facility. We use event timing to weigh both costs and risks; near-term costs and risks are discounted less than future expenditures and fatalities. This technique levels the timing of cash flows and benefits by converting future costs and benefits to present value costs and benefits. We give an example Levelized Cost-Benefit Analysis of incinerator location options to demonstrate the methodology and required data

  19. Eighteenth annual risk reduction engineering laboratory research symposium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1992-01-01

    The Eighteenth Annual Risk Reduction Engineering Laboratory Research Symposium was held in Cincinnati, Ohio, April 14-16, 1992. The purpose of this Symposium was to present the latest significant research findings from ongoing and recently completed projects funded by the Risk Reduction Engineering Laboratory (RREL). These Proceedings are organized into two sections. Sessions A and B, which contain extended abstracts of the paper presentations. A list of poster displays is also included. Subjects include remedial action, treatment, and control technologies for waste disposal, landfill liner and cover systems, underground storage tanks, and demonstration and development of innovative/alternative treatment technologies for hazardous waste. Alternative technology subjects include thermal destruction of hazardous wastes, field evaluations, existing treatment options, emerging treatment processes, waste minimization, and biosystems for hazardous waste destruction

  20. Social Geology and Landslide Disaster Risk Reduction in Sri Lanka

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jayasingha P

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available AbstractLandslide disaster risk reduction is presently a challenging task facing by Sri Lankangeologists. Increasing trend of population growth in Sri Lanka has adversely affected thestability of central highland due to various human activities. Among them establishment ofhuman settlements and change in land use pattern have become a serious issue in triggeringland instabilities in central highland of the country. National Building Research Oragnisationwhich is the main focal point in land slide disaster risk reduction in Sri Lanka has takenvaluable and timely needed actions including preparation of landslide hazard zonation maps,early warnings and mitigations. Though the landslide is a geological phenomenon, it is highlyinteracted with human societies. Hence managing the issues arising with the landslideoccurrence should be addressed with a sociological approach. This new approach is known asSocio Geological approach which is discussed here.Key words: Landslide, Geology, Socio Geology, Social Geologist

  1. Model Reduction of Fuzzy Logic Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhandong Yu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with the problem of ℒ2-ℒ∞ model reduction for continuous-time nonlinear uncertain systems. The approach of the construction of a reduced-order model is presented for high-order nonlinear uncertain systems described by the T-S fuzzy systems, which not only approximates the original high-order system well with an ℒ2-ℒ∞ error performance level γ but also translates it into a linear lower-dimensional system. Then, the model approximation is converted into a convex optimization problem by using a linearization procedure. Finally, a numerical example is presented to show the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  2. Baseline risk and marginal willingness to pay for health risk reduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerking, Shelby; Adamowicz, Wiktor; Dickie, Mark; Veronesi, Marcella

    2017-01-01

    Empirical results presented in this paper suggest that parents' marginal willingness to pay (MWTP) for a reduction in morbidity risk from heart disease is inversely related to baseline risk (i.e., the amount of risk initially faced) both for themselves and for their children. For instance, a 40% reduction from the mean of baseline risk results in an increase in MWTP by 70% or more. Thus, estimates of monetary benefits of public programs to reduce heart disease risk would be understated if the standard practice is followed of evaluating MWTP at initial risk levels and then multiplying this value by the number of cases avoided. Estimates are supported by: (1) unique quantitative information on perceptions of the risk of getting heart disease that allow baseline risk to be defined at an individual level and (2) improved econometric procedures to control for well-known difficulties associated with stated preference data.

  3. Household flood risk reduction in the Czech Republic

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Duží, Barbora; Vikhrov, Dmytro; Kelman, I.; Stojanov, Robert; Jakubínský, Jiří

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 18, č. 8 (2015), s. 1-6 ISSN 1381-2386 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) EE2.4.31.0056; GA MŠk(CZ) LD13032; GA MŠk(CZ) LD13033 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : Bečva River Basin * Czech Republic * flood risk reduction * floods * household adaptation * household coping Subject RIV: AO - Sociology, Demography Impact factor: 3.085, year: 2015

  4. Workplace injuries and risk reduction practices in Malaysia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ali, Roslinah; Shaharudin, Rafiza; Omar, Azahadi; Yusoff, Fadhli

    2012-01-01

    This study on workplace injuries and risk reduction practices was part of the Malaysia National Health Morbidity Survey III (NHMS III) conducted in 2006. This cross-sectional population-based survey was conducted to determine the incidence of workplaces injuries and assess the magnitude of some important risk reduction practices among workers. Data were gathered through face-to-face household interviews using a pre-coded questionnaire. Of the 22 880 eligible respondents, 88·2% (20 180) responded. The incidence rate for injuries at the workplace was 4·9 per 100 (95% CI: 4·6-5·2). The overall proportion of workers who had received occupational safety and health (OSH) training before or within 1 month of starting work was 33·6%. Among respondents who perceived that personal protective equipment (PPE) was required at their workplace, only 38·9% (95% CI: 37·8-39·4) were provided with it by their employers. Further studies are urgently needed to identify reasons for and management of the low uptake of risk reduction practices. This issue needs to be addressed to ensure the safety and health of our working population.

  5. Indigenous knowledge for disaster risk reduction: An African perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nnamdi G. Iloka

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Indigenous knowledge is valuable knowledge that has helped local communities all over the world survive for generations. This knowledge originates from the interaction between members of the community and the environment in which they live. Although much has been written about indigenous knowledge, its documentation in the area of disaster risk reduction and climate change in Africa has been very limited. The wealth of this knowledge has not been well-recognised in the disaster risk reduction field, as policy-makers still rely on mitigation strategies based on scientific knowledge. Colonialism and lack of proper documentation of indigenous knowledge are some of the contributing factors to this. Ignoring the importance of understanding adaptive strategies of the local people has led to failed projects. Understanding how local people in Africa have managed to survive and adapt for generations, before the arrival of Western education, may be the key to developing sustainable policies to mitigate future challenges. Literature used in this article, obtained from the books, papers and publications of various experts in the fields of disaster risk reduction, climate change, indigenous knowledge and adaptation, highlight the need for more interest to be shown in indigenous knowledge, especially in the developing country context. This would lead to better strategies which originate from the community level but would aim for overall sustainable development in Africa.

  6. Evaluating the risk-reduction benefits of wind energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brower, M.C. [Brower & Company, Andover, MA (United States); Bell, K. [Convergence Research, Seattle, WA (United States); Bernow, S.; Duckworth, M. [Tellus Inst., Boston, MA (United States); Spinney P. [Charles River Associates, Boston, MA (United States)

    1996-12-31

    This paper presents preliminary results of a study to evaluate the risk-reduction benefits of wind power for a case study utility system using decision analysis techniques. The costs and risks of two alternative decisions-whether to build a 400 MW gas-fired combined cycle plant or a 1600 MW wind plant in 2003-were compared through computer simulations as fuel prices, environmental regulatory costs, wind and conventional power plant availability, and load growth were allowed to vary. Three different market scenarios were examined: traditional regulation, a short-term power pool, and fixed-price contracts of varying duration. The study concludes that, from the perspective of ratepayers, wind energy provides a net levelized risk-reduction benefit of $3.4 to $7.8/MWh under traditional regulation, and less in the other scenarios. From the perspective of the utility plant owners, wind provides a significant risk benefit in the unregulated market scenarios but none in a regulated market. The methodology and findings should help inform utility resource planning and industry restructuring efforts. 2 figs., 3 tabs.

  7. Cancer risk in aluminum reduction plant workers (Canada)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Spinelli, J.J.; Demers, P.A.; Le, N.D.; Friesen, M.D.; Lorenzi, M.F.; Fang, R.; Gallagher, R.P. [British Columbia Cancer Agency, Vancouver, BC (Canada)

    2006-09-15

    A 14-year update to a previously published historical cohort study of aluminum reduction plant workers was conducted. All men with three or more years at an aluminum reduction plant in British Columbia (BC), Canada between the years 1954 and 1997 were included; a total of 6,423 workers. A total of 662 men were diagnosed with cancer, representing a 400% increase from the original study. Standardized mortality and incidence ratios were used to compare the cancer mortality and incidence of the cohort to that of the BC population. Poisson regression was used to examine risk by cumulative exposure to coal tar pitch volatiles (CTPV) measured as benzene soluble materials (BSM) and benzo(a)pyrene (BaP). The risk for bladder cancer was related to cumulative exposure to CTPV measured as BSM and BaP (p trends < 0.001), and the risk for stomach cancer was related to exposure measured by BaP (p trend BaP < 0.05). The risks for lung cancer (p trend < 0.001), non-Hodgkin lymphoma (p trend < 0.001), and kidney cancer (p trend < 0.01) also increased with increasing exposure, although the overall rates were similar to that of the general population. Analysis of the joint effect of smoking and CTPV exposure on cancer showed the observed dose-response relationships to be independent of smoking.

  8. Advances in volcano monitoring and risk reduction in Latin America

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCausland, W. A.; White, R. A.; Lockhart, A. B.; Marso, J. N.; Assitance Program, V. D.; Volcano Observatories, L. A.

    2014-12-01

    We describe results of cooperative work that advanced volcanic monitoring and risk reduction. The USGS-USAID Volcano Disaster Assistance Program (VDAP) was initiated in 1986 after disastrous lahars during the 1985 eruption of Nevado del Ruiz dramatizedthe need to advance international capabilities in volcanic monitoring, eruption forecasting and hazard communication. For the past 28 years, VDAP has worked with our partners to improve observatories, strengthen monitoring networks, and train observatory personnel. We highlight a few of the many accomplishments by Latin American volcano observatories. Advances in monitoring, assessment and communication, and lessons learned from the lahars of the 1985 Nevado del Ruiz eruption and the 1994 Paez earthquake enabled the Servicio Geológico Colombiano to issue timely, life-saving warnings for 3 large syn-eruptive lahars at Nevado del Huila in 2007 and 2008. In Chile, the 2008 eruption of Chaitén prompted SERNAGEOMIN to complete a national volcanic vulnerability assessment that led to a major increase in volcano monitoring. Throughout Latin America improved seismic networks now telemeter data to observatories where the decades-long background rates and types of seismicity have been characterized at over 50 volcanoes. Standardization of the Earthworm data acquisition system has enabled data sharing across international boundaries, of paramount importance during both regional tectonic earthquakes and during volcanic crises when vulnerabilities cross international borders. Sharing of seismic forecasting methods led to the formation of the international organization of Latin American Volcano Seismologists (LAVAS). LAVAS courses and other VDAP training sessions have led to international sharing of methods to forecast eruptions through recognition of precursors and to reduce vulnerabilities from all volcano hazards (flows, falls, surges, gas) through hazard assessment, mapping and modeling. Satellite remote sensing data

  9. New GOES-R Risk Reduction Activities at CIRA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogers, M. A.; Miller, S. D.; Grasso, L. D.; Haynes, J. M.; NOH, Y. J.; Forsythe, J.; Zupanski, M.; Lindsey, D. T.

    2017-12-01

    A team of atmospheric scientists at the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA) at the Colorado State University has been selected by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) GOES-R Risk Reduction (GOES-R3) science program to develop applications to enhance the utilization of the GOES-R sensors, including the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) and the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM). The selected project topics follow NOAA's Research and Development Objectives listed in its 5-year Strategic Plan. The projects will be carried out over a three-year period which started on 1 July 2017 and will end on 30 June 2019. CIRA is working on five GOES-R3 application developments: 1) Developing an Environmental Awareness Repertoire of ABI Imagery (`DEAR-ABII') to Advise the Operational Weather Forecaster. DEAR-ABII maximizes the vast potential of the new GOES-R/GOES-16 sensor technology. 2) GOES-R ABI channel differencing used to reveal cloud-free zones of `precursors of convective initiation'. This product identifies where convective initiation may occur in cloud free skies. 3) Improving the ABI Cloud Layers Product for Multiple Layer Cloud Systems and Aviation Forecast Applications. This project aims to improve the GOES-16 cloud layer product by providing information on the boundaries of cloud layers even when one layer overlies another. 4) Using the New Capabilities of GOES-R to Improve Blended, Multisensor Water Vapor Products for Forecasters. GOES-R TPW retrievals will be merged with TPW derived from polar orbiter and surface data to improve the operational NOAA blended TPW product. 5) Data assimilation of GLM observations in HWRF/GSI system. Assimilation of GOES-R GLM observations for the NOAA operational hurricane model with the goal to improve operational hurricane forecasting. Examples for each of these applications will be presented.

  10. Merging Cultural Heritage Assessments with Risk Reduction and Disaster Recovery

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bojsen, Ann Kristina Mikkelsen

    heritage. These limitations serve as motivation for the introduction of the ACTOR framework (Assessing Cultural Threats, Obstacles and Resilience) ACTOR aims at merging cultural heritage assessments with risk reduction and disaster recovery, and provide disaster management students with a learning......Abstract There is a general professional consensus that vulnerability and risk assessments are crucial tasks in any serious attempt to substantially reduce disaster losses and enhance the reconciliation or recovery in the post event phase. However, cultural heritage is often considered...... as an overarching element that should be assessed, rather than a permanent key component of the assessments. Research in disaster management noticeably illustrates how cultural heritage is increasingly at risk from disasters caused by natural and human-made hazards, as well as the effects of climate change. Still...

  11. Assessment of reduction in perception of nuclear risk related to perception of environmental risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boemer, Veronica Araujo; Aquino, Afonso Rodrigues de

    2009-01-01

    This work presents a bibliographic research accomplished to evaluate the matter of reduction in risk perception, on people in general, that nuclear energy can show, for generation of electric power, face to perception of risk associated to environmental questions, as the global warming, from greenhouse effect, addressing the matter to the relevance of public acceptance for the development of new technologies. (author)

  12. Estimating the Value of Price Risk Reduction in Energy Efficiency Investments in Buildings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pekka Tuominen

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a method for calculating the value of price risk reduction to a consumer that can be achieved with investments in energy efficiency. The value of price risk reduction is discussed to some length in general terms in the literature reviewed but, so far, no methodology for calculating the value has been presented. Here we suggest such a method. The problem of valuating price risk reduction is approached using a variation of the Black–Scholes model by considering a hypothetical financial instrument that a consumer would purchase to insure herself against unexpected price hikes. This hypothetical instrument is then compared with an actual energy efficiency investment that reaches the same level of price risk reduction. To demonstrate the usability of the method, case examples are calculated for typical single-family houses in Finland. The results show that the price risk entailed in household energy consumption can be reduced by a meaningful amount with energy efficiency investments, and that the monetary value of this reduction can be calculated. It is argued that this often-overlooked benefit of energy efficiency investments merits more consideration in future studies.

  13. Breast Cancer Incidence and Risk Reduction in the Hispanic Population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Power, Eric J; Chin, Megan L; Haq, Mohamed M

    2018-02-26

    Breast cancer is the most common non-skin cancer amongst women worldwide and is the fifth leading cause of cancer-related mortality overall. It is also the foremost reason for cancer-related mortality in Hispanic females in the United States (US). Although the current incidence of breast cancer is significantly lower in Hispanics compared to that of non-Hispanic Whites (NHW) and Blacks, (91.9, 128.1, and 124.3 per 100,000, respectively, annually), this may increase if Hispanics develop similar lifestyle behaviors to other American women, in categories such as weight management, age at first birth, number of children, and breastfeeding habits. Stage-for-stage mortality for Hispanics is similar to NHWs, but the mortality rate is not declining as rapidly in this ethnic group. Hispanic women share many of the same risk factors for developing breast cancer as NHWs and Blacks. This suggests that many of the risk reduction strategies used in other racial populations may also benefit this group. Providing education about breast cancer and implementing risk reduction strategies in culturally-aware environments could help keep incidence low and reduce cancer-related mortality. Since Hispanics are the largest minority group in the US, this could have a significant impact on the incidence and mortality nationally.

  14. Earth observation for disaster risk reduction in Pakistan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rafiq, L.

    2012-01-01

    This thesis investigates the role of Earth Observation (EO) for disaster risk reduction for Pakistan. It demonstrates that significant improvements are possible through the utilization of EO data for natural disaster risk reduction activities in Pakistan. In this thesis, a multi hazard approach is proposed in order to identify vulnerability and risk at district level in Pakistan. In particular, a methodology for ranking hazards, vulnerabilities and risks based on Delphi methods is developed. This method is implemented and the results are mapped for four selected hazards i.e., earthquakes, floods, cyclones and droughts. Based on the final risk rankings, the potential of EO is explored with a focus on vulnerability assessment through detailed analysis of two case studies i.e.; Flood and Cyclone/Tsunami. The study also reviews and evaluates the institutional framework of the National Disaster Management Authority of Pakistan in order to identify existing gaps and address them in view of modern technology being used globally. Results reveal that these gaps are mainly related to policies, coordination and communication of different stakeholders at the national level. The work also reviews the available Early Warning System (EWS) in Pakistan and particularly its usage during disasters. Within the context of EWS, multi-sensor satellite data have been utilized for the analysis of structure of an Arabian Sea tropical Cyclone. Results of this focal study provide useful information for operational analysis and forecasting as well as for designing disaster mitigation measures. This information may also play a major role in the development of cyclone warning strategies in the future. (author)

  15. Climate change air toxic co-reduction in the context of macroeconomic modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crawford-Brown, Douglas; Chen, Pi-Cheng; Shi, Hsiu-Ching; Chao, Chia-Wei

    2013-08-15

    This paper examines the health implications of global PM reduction accompanying greenhouse gas emissions reductions in the 180 national economies of the global macroeconomy. A human health effects module based on empirical data on GHG emissions, PM emissions, background PM concentrations, source apportionment and human health risk coefficients is used to estimate reductions in morbidity and mortality from PM exposures globally as co-reduction of GHG reductions. These results are compared against the "fuzzy bright line" that often underlies regulatory decisions for environmental toxics, and demonstrate that the risk reduction through PM reduction would usually be considered justified in traditional risk-based decisions for environmental toxics. It is shown that this risk reduction can be on the order of more than 4 × 10(-3) excess lifetime mortality risk, with global annual cost savings of slightly more than $10B, when uniform GHG reduction measures across all sectors of the economy form the basis for climate policy ($2.2B if only Annex I nations reduce). Consideration of co-reduction of PM-10 within a climate policy framework harmonized with other environmental policies can therefore be an effective driver of climate policy. An error analysis comparing results of the current model against those of significantly more spatially resolved models at city and national scales indicates errors caused by the low spatial resolution of the global model used here may be on the order of a factor of 2. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Reduction of Systemic Risk by Means of Pigouvian Taxation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zlatić, Vinko; Gabbi, Giampaolo; Abraham, Hrvoje

    2015-01-01

    We analyze the possibility of reduction of systemic risk in financial markets through Pigouvian taxation of financial institutions, which is used to support the rescue fund. We introduce the concept of the cascade risk with a clear operational definition as a subclass and a network related measure of the systemic risk. Using financial networks constructed from real Italian money market data and using realistic parameters, we show that the cascade risk can be substantially reduced by a small rate of taxation and by means of a simple strategy of the money transfer from the rescue fund to interbanking market subjects. Furthermore, we show that while negative effects on the return on investment (ROI) are direct and certain, an overall positive effect on risk adjusted return on investments (ROIRA) is visible. Please note that the taxation is introduced as a monetary/regulatory, not as a _scal measure, as the term could suggest. The rescue fund is implemented in a form of a common reserve fund.

  17. Reduction of Systemic Risk by Means of Pigouvian Taxation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vinko Zlatić

    Full Text Available We analyze the possibility of reduction of systemic risk in financial markets through Pigouvian taxation of financial institutions, which is used to support the rescue fund. We introduce the concept of the cascade risk with a clear operational definition as a subclass and a network related measure of the systemic risk. Using financial networks constructed from real Italian money market data and using realistic parameters, we show that the cascade risk can be substantially reduced by a small rate of taxation and by means of a simple strategy of the money transfer from the rescue fund to interbanking market subjects. Furthermore, we show that while negative effects on the return on investment (ROI are direct and certain, an overall positive effect on risk adjusted return on investments (ROIRA is visible. Please note that the taxation is introduced as a monetary/regulatory, not as a _scal measure, as the term could suggest. The rescue fund is implemented in a form of a common reserve fund.

  18. Valuing Drinking Water Risk Reductions Using the Contingent Valuation Method: A Methodological Study of Risks from THM and Giardia (1986)

    Science.gov (United States)

    This study develops contingent valuation methods for measuring the benefits of mortality and morbidity drinking water risk reductions. The major effort was devoted to developing and testing a survey instrument to value low-level risk reductions.

  19. ISM Approach to Model Offshore Outsourcing Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sunand Kumar

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available In an effort to achieve a competitive advantage via cost reductions and improved market responsiveness, organizations are increasingly employing offshore outsourcing as a major component of their supply chain strategies. But as evident from literature number of risks such as Political risk, Risk due to cultural differences, Compliance and regulatory risk, Opportunistic risk and Organization structural risk, which adversely affect the performance of offshore outsourcing in a supply chain network. This also leads to dissatisfaction among different stake holders. The main objective of this paper is to identify and understand the mutual interaction among various risks which affect the performance of offshore outsourcing.  To this effect, authors have identified various risks through extant review of literature.  From this information, an integrated model using interpretive structural modelling (ISM for risks affecting offshore outsourcing is developed and the structural relationships between these risks are modeled.  Further, MICMAC analysis is done to analyze the driving power and dependency of risks which shall be helpful to managers to identify and classify important criterions and to reveal the direct and indirect effects of each criterion on offshore outsourcing. Results show that political risk and risk due to cultural differences are act as strong drivers.

  20. HIV Risk Reduction Among Young Adult Chronic Psychiatric Patients

    Science.gov (United States)

    1990-08-28

    emotional language to convey information on risk reduction. Common myths concerning transmission are presented and the audience is specifically told that...current study include: ’Can contact with semen (cum) from the penis result In AIDS?’,’ Can a person get AIDS from vaginal fluids in a woman’s vagina ? Can...hands. It doesn’t like being exposed to sunlight or air. Female: The AIDS virus lives inside the human body, in the blood, in a woman’s vagina and

  1. Theoretical framework to study exercise motivation for breast cancer risk reduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Maureen E

    2008-01-01

    To identify an appropriate theoretical framework to study exercise motivation for breast cancer risk reduction among high-risk women. An extensive review of the literature was conducted to gather relevant information pertaining to the Health Promotion Model, self-determination theory, social cognitive theory, Health Belief Model, Transtheoretical Model, theory of planned behavior, and protection motivation theory. An iterative approach was used to summarize the literature related to exercise motivation within each theoretical framework. Protection motivation theory could be used to examine the effects of perceived risk and self-efficacy in motivating women to exercise to facilitate health-related behavioral change. Evidence-based research within a chosen theoretical model can aid practitioners when making practical recommendations to reduce breast cancer risk.

  2. Dynamical reduction models with general gaussian noises

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bassi, Angelo; Ghirardi, GianCarlo

    2002-02-01

    We consider the effect of replacing in stochastic differential equations leading to the dynamical collapse of the statevector, white noise stochastic processes with non white ones. We prove that such a modification can be consistently performed without altering the most interesting features of the previous models. One of the reasons to discuss this matter derives from the desire of being allowed to deal with physical stochastic fields, such as the gravitational one, which cannot give rise to white noises. From our point of view the most relevant motivation for the approach we propose here derives from the fact that in relativistic models the occurrence of white noises is the main responsible for the appearance of untractable divergences. Therefore, one can hope that resorting to non white noises one can overcome such a difficulty. We investigate stochastic equations with non white noises, we discuss their reduction properties and their physical implications. Our analysis has a precise interest not only for the above mentioned subject but also for the general study of dissipative systems and decoherence. (author)

  3. Dynamical reduction models with general Gaussian noises

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bassi, Angelo; Ghirardi, GianCarlo

    2002-01-01

    We consider the effect of replacing in stochastic differential equations leading to the dynamical collapse of the state vector, white-noise stochastic processes with nonwhite ones. We prove that such a modification can be consistently performed without altering the most interesting features of the previous models. One of the reasons to discuss this matter derives from the desire of being allowed to deal with physical stochastic fields, such as the gravitational one, which cannot give rise to white noises. From our point of view, the most relevant motivation for the approach we propose here derives from the fact that in relativistic models intractable divergences appear as a consequence of the white nature of the noises. Therefore, one can hope that resorting to nonwhite noises, one can overcome such a difficulty. We investigate stochastic equations with nonwhite noises, we discuss their reduction properties and their physical implications. Our analysis has a precise interest not only for the above-mentioned subject but also for the general study of dissipative systems and decoherence

  4. Disaster risk reduction in developing countries: costs, benefits and institutions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenny, Charles

    2012-10-01

    Some 60,000 people worldwide die annually in natural disasters, mostly due to the collapse of buildings in earthquakes, and primarily in the developing world. This is despite the fact that engineering solutions exist that can eliminate almost completely the risk of such deaths. Why is this? The solutions are expensive and technically demanding, so their cost-benefit ratio often is unfavourable as compared to other interventions. Nonetheless, there are various public disaster risk reduction interventions that are highly cost-effective. That such interventions frequently remain unimplemented or ineffectively executed points to a role for issues of political economy. Building regulations in developing countries appear to have limited impact in many cases, perhaps because of inadequate capacity and corruption. Public construction often is of low quality, perhaps for similar reasons. This suggests the need for approaches that emphasise simple and limited disaster risk regulation covering only the most at-risk structures-and that, preferably, non-experts can monitor-as well as numerous transparency and oversight mechanisms for public construction projects. © 2012 The Author(s). Journal compilation © Overseas Development Institute, 2012.

  5. Ibrutinib-associated bleeding: pathogenesis, management and risk reduction strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shatzel, J J; Olson, S R; Tao, D L; McCarty, O J T; Danilov, A V; DeLoughery, T G

    2017-05-01

    Ibrutinib is an irreversible inhibitor of Bruton's tyrosine kinase (Btk) that has proven to be an effective therapeutic agent for multiple B-cell-mediated lymphoproliferative disorders. Ibrutinib, however, carries an increased bleeding risk compared with standard chemotherapy. Bleeding events range from minor mucocutaneous bleeding to life-threatening hemorrhage, due in large part to the effects of ibrutinib on several distinct platelet signaling pathways. There is currently a minimal amount of data to guide clinicians regarding the use of ibrutinib in patients at high risk of bleeding or on anticoagulant or antiplatelet therapy. In addition, the potential cardiovascular protective effects of ibrutinib monotherapy in patients at risk of vascular disease are unknown. Patients should be cautioned against using non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, fish oils, vitamin E and aspirin-containing products, and consider replacing ibrutinib with a different agent if dual antiplatelet therapy is indicated. Patients should not take vitamin K antagonists concurrently with ibrutinib; direct oral anticoagulants should be used if extended anticoagulation is strongly indicated. In this review, we describe the pathophysiology of ibrutinib-mediated bleeding and suggest risk reduction strategies for common clinical scenarios associated with ibrutinib. © 2017 International Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis.

  6. Patterns of NPS Use and Risk Reduction in Slovenia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sande, Matej; Paš, Mina; Nahtigal, Klara; Šabić, Simona

    2018-01-15

    The following study presents factors influencing the decision to use/not to use new psychoactive substances (NPS), various patterns of NPS use, the problems experienced by users, and the methods for reducing the risks associated with NPS use. The study seeks to provide an in-depth look into the characteristics of NPS use and support the planning of targeted interventions in the field of NPS. The study involved 19 in-depth interviews carried out with 25 individuals divided into three subsamples in order to gain insight into the various experiences of NPS users. The interviews were conducted in Slovenia between December 2013 and October 2014. The sample was obtained by using the convenience sampling and snowball sampling methods. The main pattern of NPS use determined by the study concerned synthetic cathinones, specifically 3-MMC, with binge use spanning several days being a prominent feature. The main risks involving NPS use were: mixing various drugs, inappropriate dosing, lack of information prior to use, and the use of unknown substances. Several users spoke about effective strategies for reducing risks, such as obtaining information beforehand, using one's own implements and using only small quantities of unknown substances. Conclusions/Importance: The study revealed various factors based on which users decide to use NPS. Furthermore, users reported a number of problems resulting from NPS use, while risk reduction strategies are employed to a much lesser extent. Based on the results obtained, specific intervention efforts concerning NPS use and targeting specific groups of younger users were designed.

  7. Development and evaluation of thermal model reduction algorithms for spacecraft

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deiml, Michael; Suderland, Martin; Reiss, Philipp; Czupalla, Markus

    2015-05-01

    This paper is concerned with the topic of the reduction of thermal models of spacecraft. The work presented here has been conducted in cooperation with the company OHB AG, formerly Kayser-Threde GmbH, and the Institute of Astronautics at Technische Universität München with the goal to shorten and automatize the time-consuming and manual process of thermal model reduction. The reduction of thermal models can be divided into the simplification of the geometry model for calculation of external heat flows and radiative couplings and into the reduction of the underlying mathematical model. For simplification a method has been developed which approximates the reduced geometry model with the help of an optimization algorithm. Different linear and nonlinear model reduction techniques have been evaluated for their applicability in reduction of the mathematical model. Thereby the compatibility with the thermal analysis tool ESATAN-TMS is of major concern, which restricts the useful application of these methods. Additional model reduction methods have been developed, which account to these constraints. The Matrix Reduction method allows the approximation of the differential equation to reference values exactly expect for numerical errors. The summation method enables a useful, applicable reduction of thermal models that can be used in industry. In this work a framework for model reduction of thermal models has been created, which can be used together with a newly developed graphical user interface for the reduction of thermal models in industry.

  8. First Evaluation of a Contingency Management Intervention Addressing Adolescent Substance Use and Sexual Risk Behaviors: Risk Reduction Therapy for Adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Letourneau, Elizabeth J; McCart, Michael R; Sheidow, Ashli J; Mauro, Pia M

    2017-01-01

    There is a need for interventions that comprehensively address youth substance use disorders (SUD) and sexual risk behaviors. Risk Reduction Therapy for Adolescents (RRTA) adapts a validated family-focused intervention for youth SUD to include sexual risk reduction components in a single intervention. In this first evaluation of RRTA, drug court involved youth were randomly assigned to RRTA (N=45) or usual services (US; N=60) and followed through 12-months post-baseline. RRTA included weekly cognitive behavior therapy and behavior management training and contingency-contracting with a point earning system managed by caregivers targeting drug use and sexual risk antecedents. Longitudinal models estimated within-group change and between-group differences through 6- and 12-month follow-up on outcomes for substance use, sexual risk behaviors, and protective HIV behaviors. Robust effects of the intervention were not detected under conditions of the study that included potent background interventions by the juvenile drug court. Considerations about future development and testing of sexual risk reduction therapy for youth are discussed, including the potential role of contingency management in future interventions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Risk reduction and TQM: A corporate culture of continuous improvement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nau, D.C.

    1992-01-01

    A company supplying products and services to the nuclear industry that implements a cultural commitment to continuous improvement, in addition to providing higher quality products and services, also represents a significant reduction in operational risk to that industry. The implementation of a culture of total quality management (TQM), initiated by Sorrento Electronics (SE) in 1989, involves total commitment to the basic TQM principles: continuous improvement, people performing the work are the best sources of how to do it better, and employees must be empowered to make the improvements. What this means to the nuclear industry is a significant reduction in operational risk through: (1) products based on simpler, standardized, proven designs with established operational track records, enhancing confidence that they will perform as expected; (2) the highest confidence that products and supporting documentation are delivered with zero defects; (3) critical power plant schedules can be supported through the shortest possible equipment delivery times; (4) highly motivated employees with extremely positive attitudes, working together in cross-functional teams, virtually eliminate the possibility of deliberate product tampering or sabotage

  10. Disaster Risk Reduction through school learners’ awareness and preparedness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Takalani S. Rambau

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available In 2006, the ISDR (International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (2007 initiated a campaign called Disaster Risk Reduction Begins at School to encourage the integration of disaster risk education into school curricula in countries vulnerable to disasters. A study was initiated to determine how education, in particular curriculum development and teaching, contributes to South African learners’ hazard awareness and disaster preparedness. Mixed method research (consisting of questionnaires, interviews and document reviews was done to collect data. 150 educators from Gauteng, the Western Cape, KwaZulu-Natal, North West and the Eastern Cape completed questionnaires. Five curriculum coordinators, three disaster specialists and two disaster lecturers were interviewed to record their perspectives. The first finding of the study was that the majority of educators, disaster specialists and curriculum coordinators identified floods, fire, droughts, epidemics, road accidents and storms as the most prevalent disasters in the country. The second finding from the literature and empirical data collection revealed that South African communities, particularly people residing in informal settlements and other poor areas, are more vulnerable to disasters than their counterparts in more affluent areas. The third finding of the study was that teaching learners about hazards and disasters is vital and must be expanded.

  11. Smartphone Delivery of Mobile HIV Risk Reduction Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, Karran A; Epstein, David H; Mezghanni, Mustapha; Vahabzadeh, Massoud; Reamer, David; Agage, Daniel; Preston, Kenzie L

    2013-01-01

    We sought to develop and deploy a video-based smartphone-delivered mobile HIV Risk Reduction (mHIVRR) intervention to individuals in an addiction treatment clinic. We developed 3 video modules that consisted of a 10-minute HIVRR video, 11 acceptability questions, and 3 knowledge questions and deployed them as a secondary study within a larger study of ecological momentary and geographical momentary assessments. All 24 individuals who remained in the main study long enough completed the mHIVRR secondary study. All 3 videos met our a priori criteria for acceptability "as is" in the population: they achieved median scores of ≤2.5 on a 5-point Likert scale; ≤20% of the individuals gave them the most negative rating on the scale; a majority of the individuals stated that they would not prefer other formats over video-based smartphone-delivered one (all P smartphone is acceptable, feasible and may increase HIV/STD risk reduction knowledge. Future studies, with pre-intervention assessments of knowledge and random assignment, are needed to confirm these findings.

  12. Smartphone Delivery of Mobile HIV Risk Reduction Education

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karran A. Phillips

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available We sought to develop and deploy a video-based smartphone-delivered mobile HIV Risk Reduction (mHIVRR intervention to individuals in an addiction treatment clinic. We developed 3 video modules that consisted of a 10-minute HIVRR video, 11 acceptability questions, and 3 knowledge questions and deployed them as a secondary study within a larger study of ecological momentary and geographical momentary assessments. All 24 individuals who remained in the main study long enough completed the mHIVRR secondary study. All 3 videos met our a priori criteria for acceptability “as is” in the population: they achieved median scores of ≤2.5 on a 5-point Likert scale; ≤20% of the individuals gave them the most negative rating on the scale; a majority of the individuals stated that they would not prefer other formats over video-based smartphone-delivered one (all P<0.05. Additionally, all of our video modules met our a priori criteria for feasibility: ≤20% of data were missing due to participant noncompliance and ≤20% were missing due to technical failure. We concluded that video-based mHIVRR education delivered via smartphone is acceptable, feasible and may increase HIV/STD risk reduction knowledge. Future studies, with pre-intervention assessments of knowledge and random assignment, are needed to confirm these findings.

  13. Landslide risk reduction strategies: an inventory for the Global South

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maes, Jan; Kervyn, Matthieu; Vranken, Liesbet; Dewitte, Olivier; Vanmaercke, Matthias; Mertens, Kewan; Jacobs, Liesbet; Poesen, Jean

    2015-04-01

    Landslides constitute a serious problem globally. Moreover, landslide impact remains underestimated especially in the Global South. It is precisely there where the largest impact is experienced. An overview of measures taken to reduce risk of landslides in the Global South is however still lacking. Because in many countries of the Global South disaster risk reduction (DRR) is at an emerging stage, it is crucial to monitor the ongoing efforts (e.g. discussions on the Post-2015 Framework for DRR). The first objective of this study is to make an inventory of techniques and strategies that are applied to reduce risk from landslides in tropical countries. The second objective is to investigate what are the main bottlenecks for implementation of DRR strategies. In order to achieve these objectives, a review of both scientific and grey literature was conducted, supplemented with expert knowledge. The compilation of recommended and implemented DRR measures from landslide-prone tropical countries is based on an adapted classification proposed by the SafeLand project. According to Vaciago (2013), landslide risk can be reduced by either reducing the hazard, the vulnerability, the number or value of elements at risk or by sharing the residual risk. In addition, these measures can be combined with education and/or awareness raising and are influenced by governance structures and cultural beliefs. Global landslide datasets have been used to identify landslide-prone countries, augmented with region-specific datasets. Countries located in the tropics were selected in order to include landslide-prone countries with a different Human Development Index (HDI) but with a similar climate. Preliminary results support the statement made by Anderson (2013) that although the importance of shifting from post-disaster emergency actions to pre-disaster mitigation is acknowledged, in practice this paradigm shift seems rather limited. It is expected that this is especially the case in countries

  14. Risk avoidance versus risk reduction: a framework and segmentation profile for understanding adolescent sexual activity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hopkins, Christopher D; Tanner, John F; Raymond, Mary Anne

    2004-01-01

    The teen birthrate in the United States is twice that of other industrialized nations. Adolescents in the U.S. are among high-risk groups for HIV/AIDS and other sexually transmitted diseases. As a result, the Department of Health and Human Services changed its policy on the promotion of abstinence to teenagers from a focus on a risk reduction strategy to a focus on a risk avoidance strategy. In order to create more effective risk avoidance as well as risk reduction campaigns, this study proposes a framework to illustrate the distinction that teens make between spontaneous sexual activity and planned sexual activity, as well as those teens that make a commitment to abstinence versus abstinence by default. Furthermore, this study classifies teens into three behavior segments (abstemious, promiscuous and monogamous) and then assesses specific differences that exist within these groups relative to their attitudes and perceptions concerning abstinence, sexual activity, contraception, fear and norms. This change in focus from a risk reduction to a risk avoidance strategy has important implications for social marketing, public policy and marketing theory.

  15. An office-based approach to emotional and behavioral risk factor reduction for cardiovascular disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hochman, Daniel M; Feinstein, Robert E; Stauter, Erinn C

    2013-01-01

    There are many psychological risk factors for cardiovascular disease, and the ability to reduce mortality depends on an ability to integrate care of these risk factors with traditional Framingham cardiovascular risk and use them both in routine practice. The aim of this article is to provide an update of all the major emotional and behavioral cardiovascular risk factors along with a practical treatment model for implementation. First, we provide a review of major emotional and behavioral cardiovascular risk factors, the associated primary effect, and proposed mechanism of action. Second, we provide an office-based approach to cardiovascular risk factor reduction and methods of reducing barriers to implementation, called Prevention Oriented Primary Care-Abridged. The approach integrates several forms of detection, assessment using the 3As (ask, assess, assist), and Stages of Change approaches, and subsequent efficient and targeted treatment with either Motivational Interviewing or further office intervention. A case example is provided to help illustrate this process.

  16. Optimal Risk Reduction in the Railway Industry by Using Dynamic Programming

    OpenAIRE

    Michael Todinov; Eberechi Weli

    2013-01-01

    The paper suggests for the first time the use of dynamic programming techniques for optimal risk reduction in the railway industry. It is shown that by using the concept ‘amount of removed risk by a risk reduction option’, the problem related to optimal allocation of a fixed budget to achieve a maximum risk reduction in the railway industry can be reduced to an optimisation problem from dynamic programming. For n risk reduction options and size of the available risk reduction budget B (expres...

  17. Improvement in spine bone density and reduction in risk of vertebral fractures during treatment with antiresorptive drugs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cummings, Steven R; Karpf, David B; Harris, Fran; Genant, Harry K; Ensrud, Kristine; LaCroix, Andrea Z; Black, Dennis M

    2002-03-01

    To estimate how much the improvement in bone mass accounts for the reduction in risk of vertebral fracture that has been observed in randomized trials of antiresorptive treatments for osteoporosis. After a systematic search, we conducted a meta-analysis of 12 trials to describe the relation between improvement in spine bone mineral density and reduction in risk of vertebral fracture in postmenopausal women. We also used logistic models to estimate the proportion of the reduction in risk of vertebral fracture observed with alendronate in the Fracture Intervention Trial that was due to improvement in bone mineral density. Across the 12 trials, a 1% improvement in spine bone mineral density was associated with a 0.03 decrease (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.02 to 0.05) in the relative risk (RR) of vertebral fracture. The reductions in risk were greater than predicted from improvement in bone mineral density; for example, the model estimated that treatments predicted to reduce fracture risk by 20% (RR = 0.80), based on improvement in bone mineral density, actually reduce the risk of fracture by about 45% (RR = 0.55). In the Fracture Intervention Trial, improvement in spine bone mineral density explained 16% (95% CI: 11% to 27%) of the reduction in the risk of vertebral fracture with alendronate. Improvement in spine bone mineral density during treatment with antiresorptive drugs accounts for a predictable but small part of the observed reduction in the risk of vertebral fracture.

  18. Custom v. Standardized Risk Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zura Kakushadze

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available We discuss when and why custom multi-factor risk models are warranted and give source code for computing some risk factors. Pension/mutual funds do not require customization but standardization. However, using standardized risk models in quant trading with much shorter holding horizons is suboptimal: (1 longer horizon risk factors (value, growth, etc. increase noise trades and trading costs; (2 arbitrary risk factors can neutralize alpha; (3 “standardized” industries are artificial and insufficiently granular; (4 normalization of style risk factors is lost for the trading universe; (5 diversifying risk models lowers P&L correlations, reduces turnover and market impact, and increases capacity. We discuss various aspects of custom risk model building.

  19. Risk reduction and the privatization option: First principles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bjornstad, D.J.; Jones, D.W.; Russell, M.; Cummings, R.C.; Valdez, G.; Duemmer, C.L.

    1997-01-01

    The Department of Energy's Office of Environmental Restoration and Waste Management (EM) faces a challenging mission. To increase efficiency, EM is undertaking a number of highly innovative initiatives--two of which are of particular importance to the present study. One is the 2006 Plan, a planning and budgeting process that seeks to convert the clean-up program from a temporally and fiscally open-ended endeavor to a strictly bounded one, with firm commitments over a decade-long horizon. The second is a major overhauling of the management and contracting practices that define the relationship between the Department and the private sector, aimed at cost reduction by increasing firms' responsibilities and profit opportunities and reducing DOE's direct participation in management practices and decisions. The goal of this paper is to provide an independent perspective on how EM should create new management practices to deal with private sector partners that are motivated by financial incentives. It seeks to ground this perspective in real world concerns--the background of the clean-up effort, the very difficult technical challenges it faces, the very real threats to environment, health and safety that have now been juxtaposed with financial drivers, and the constraints imposed by government's unique business practices and public responsibilities. The approach is to raise issues through application of first principles. The paper is targeted at the EM policy officer who must implement the joint visions of the 2006 plan and privatization within the context of the tradeoff between terminal risk reduction and interim risk management

  20. Risk reduction and the privatization option: First principles

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bjornstad, D.J.; Jones, D.W.; Russell, M. [Joint Inst. for Energy and Environment, Knoxville, TN (United States); Cummings, R.C.; Valdez, G. [Georgia State Univ., Atlanta, GA (United States); Duemmer, C.L. [Hull, Duemmer and Garland (United States)

    1997-06-25

    The Department of Energy`s Office of Environmental Restoration and Waste Management (EM) faces a challenging mission. To increase efficiency, EM is undertaking a number of highly innovative initiatives--two of which are of particular importance to the present study. One is the 2006 Plan, a planning and budgeting process that seeks to convert the clean-up program from a temporally and fiscally open-ended endeavor to a strictly bounded one, with firm commitments over a decade-long horizon. The second is a major overhauling of the management and contracting practices that define the relationship between the Department and the private sector, aimed at cost reduction by increasing firms` responsibilities and profit opportunities and reducing DOE`s direct participation in management practices and decisions. The goal of this paper is to provide an independent perspective on how EM should create new management practices to deal with private sector partners that are motivated by financial incentives. It seeks to ground this perspective in real world concerns--the background of the clean-up effort, the very difficult technical challenges it faces, the very real threats to environment, health and safety that have now been juxtaposed with financial drivers, and the constraints imposed by government`s unique business practices and public responsibilities. The approach is to raise issues through application of first principles. The paper is targeted at the EM policy officer who must implement the joint visions of the 2006 plan and privatization within the context of the tradeoff between terminal risk reduction and interim risk management.

  1. Risk of hospital admission for COPD following smoking cessation and reduction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Godtfredsen, N S; Vestbo, J; Osler, M

    2002-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Little is known about the effects of changes in smoking habits on the subsequent risk of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between smoking cessation and reduction and admission to hospital for COPD in a general...... by at least 50% between the two initial examinations without quitting and smokers who stopped smoking during this time were compared with continuous heavy smokers using a Cox proportional hazards model. RESULTS: During the follow up period 1,260 subjects (741 men and 519 women) were admitted to hospital...... for COPD. After multivariate adjustment, quitting smoking was associated with a significant reduction in the risk of hospital admission. The relative hazard (HR) was 0.57 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.33 to 0.99). Those who reduced smoking did not show a significantly lower risk of hospitalisation than...

  2. Model Risk in Portfolio Optimization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Stefanovits

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available We consider a one-period portfolio optimization problem under model uncertainty. For this purpose, we introduce a measure of model risk. We derive analytical results for this measure of model risk in the mean-variance problem assuming we have observations drawn from a normal variance mixture model. This model allows for heavy tails, tail dependence and leptokurtosis of marginals. The results show that mean-variance optimization is seriously compromised by model uncertainty, in particular, for non-Gaussian data and small sample sizes. To mitigate these shortcomings, we propose a method to adjust the sample covariance matrix in order to reduce model risk.

  3. Reduction of hexavalent chromium by fasted and fed human gastric fluid. II. Ex vivo gastric reduction modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kirman, Christopher R., E-mail: ckirman@summittoxicology.com [Summit Toxicology, Orange Village, OH, 44022 (United States); Suh, Mina, E-mail: msuh@toxstrategies.com [ToxStrategies, Inc., Mission Viejo, CA, 92692 (United States); Hays, Sean M., E-mail: shays@summittoxicology.com [Summit Toxicology, Allenspark, CO, 8040 (United States); Gürleyük, Hakan, E-mail: hakan@brooksrand.com [Brooks Applied Labs, Bothell, WA, 98011 (United States); Gerads, Russ, E-mail: russ@brooksrand.com [Brooks Applied Labs, Bothell, WA, 98011 (United States); De Flora, Silvio, E-mail: sdf@unige.it [Department of Health Sciences, University of Genoa, 16132 Genoa (Italy); Parker, William, E-mail: william.parker@duke.edu [Duke University Medical Center, Department of Surgery, Durham, NC, 27710 (United States); Lin, Shu, E-mail: shu.lin@duke.edu [Duke University Medical Center, Department of Surgery, Durham, NC, 27710 (United States); Haws, Laurie C., E-mail: lhaws@toxstrategies.com [ToxStrategies, Inc., Katy, TX, 77494 (United States); Harris, Mark A., E-mail: mharris@toxstrategies.com [ToxStrategies, Inc., Austin, TX, 78751 (United States); Proctor, Deborah M., E-mail: dproctor@toxstrategies.com [ToxStrategies, Inc., Mission Viejo, CA, 92692 (United States)

    2016-09-01

    To extend previous models of hexavalent chromium [Cr(VI)] reduction by gastric fluid (GF), ex vivo experiments were conducted to address data gaps and limitations identified with respect to (1) GF dilution in the model; (2) reduction of Cr(VI) in fed human GF samples; (3) the number of Cr(VI) reduction pools present in human GF under fed, fasted, and proton pump inhibitor (PPI)-use conditions; and (4) an appropriate form for the pH-dependence of Cr(VI) reduction rate constants. Rates and capacities of Cr(VI) reduction were characterized in gastric contents from fed and fasted volunteers, and from fasted pre-operative patients treated with PPIs. Reduction capacities were first estimated over a 4-h reduction period. Once reduction capacity was established, a dual-spike approach was used in speciated isotope dilution mass spectrometry analyses to characterize the concentration-dependence of the 2nd order reduction rate constants. These data, when combined with previously collected data, were well described by a three-pool model (pool 1 = fast reaction with low capacity; pool 2 = slow reaction with higher capacity; pool 3 = very slow reaction with higher capacity) using pH-dependent rate constants characterized by a piecewise, log-linear relationship. These data indicate that human gastric samples, like those collected from rats and mice, contain multiple pools of reducing agents, and low concentrations of Cr(VI) (< 0.7 mg/L) are reduced more rapidly than high concentrations. The data and revised modeling results herein provide improved characterization of Cr(VI) gastric reduction kinetics, critical for Cr(VI) pharmacokinetic modeling and human health risk assessment. - Highlights: • SIDMS allows for measurement of Cr(VI) reduction rate in gastric fluid ex vivo • Human gastric fluid has three reducing pools • Cr(VI) in drinking water at < 0.7 mg/L is rapidly reduced in human gastric fluid • Reduction rate is concentration- and pH-dependent • A refined PK

  4. The Good, The Bad and The Ugly: Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) Versus Disaster Risk Creation (DRC)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, James

    2012-01-01

    In understanding and trying to reduce the risk from disasters, connections are often articulated amongst poverty, vulnerability, risk, and disasters. These are welcome steps, but the approach taken in top-down international documents is rarely to articulate explicitly that vulnerability accrues from a wide variety of dynamic and long-term processes. Neglecting these processes—and failing to explore their links with poverty, risk, and disasters—tends to encourage disaster risk creation. This paper identifies seven examples of on-the-ground realities of long-term vulnerability within two clusters: Endangerment: 1 Environmental degradation. 2 Discrimination. 3 Displacement. Impoverishment: 4 Self-seeking public expenditure. 5 Denial of access to resources. 6 Corruption. 7 Siphoning of public money. Examples are presented as vignettes, many contemporary and many rooted in historical contexts, to demonstrate the extent to which “vulnerability drivers” emanate from greed, the misuse of political and commercial power, mismanagement and incompetence amongst other behaviours. Moving forward to the tackling of disaster risk creation, instead of simply seeking disaster risk reduction, requires detailed investigation into these contemporary and historical realities of the causes of vulnerability. That would support the integration of disaster risk reduction within the many wider contexts that foment and perpetuate vulnerability. PMID:22919564

  5. The Good, The Bad and The Ugly: Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) Versus Disaster Risk Creation (DRC).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, James

    2012-06-21

    In understanding and trying to reduce the risk from disasters, connections are often articulated amongst poverty, vulnerability, risk, and disasters. These are welcome steps, but the approach taken in top-down international documents is rarely to articulate explicitly that vulnerability accrues from a wide variety of dynamic and long-term processes. Neglecting these processes-and failing to explore their links with poverty, risk, and disasters-tends to encourage disaster risk creation. This paper identifies seven examples of on-the-ground realities of long-term vulnerability within two clusters: Endangerment: 1 Environmental degradation. 2 Discrimination. 3 Displacement. Impoverishment: 4 Self-seeking public expenditure. 5 Denial of access to resources. 6 Corruption. 7 Siphoning of public money. Examples are presented as vignettes, many contemporary and many rooted in historical contexts, to demonstrate the extent to which "vulnerability drivers" emanate from greed, the misuse of political and commercial power, mismanagement and incompetence amongst other behaviours. Moving forward to the tackling of disaster risk creation, instead of simply seeking disaster risk reduction, requires detailed investigation into these contemporary and historical realities of the causes of vulnerability. That would support the integration of disaster risk reduction within the many wider contexts that foment and perpetuate vulnerability.

  6. Therapeutical approach to plasma homocysteine and cardiovascular risk reduction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcello Ciaccio

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available Marcello Ciaccio, Giulia Bivona, Chiara BelliaDepartment of Medical Biotechnologies and Forensic Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, University of Palermo, ItalyAbstract: Homocysteine is a sulfur-containing aminoacid produced during metabolism of methionine. Since 1969 the relationship between altered homocysteine metabolism and both coronary and peripheral atherotrombosis is known; in recent years experimental evidences have shown that elevated plasma levels of homocysteine are associated with an increased risk of atherosclerosis and cardiovascular ischemic events. Several mechanisms by which elevated homocysteine impairs vascular function have been proposed, including impairment of endothelial function, production of reactive oxygen species (ROS and consequent oxidation of low-density lipids. Endothelial function is altered in subjects with hyperhomocysteinemia, and endothelial dysfunction is correlated with plasma levels of homocysteine. Folic acid and B vitamins, required for remethylation of homocysteine to methionine, are the most important dietary determinants of homocysteine and daily supplementation typically lowers plasma homocysteine levels; it is still unclear whether the decreased plasma levels of homocysteine through diet or drugs may be paralleled by a reduction in cardiovascular risk.Keywords: homocysteine, MTHFR, cardiovascular disease, folate, B vitamin

  7. Risk based modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chapman, O.J.V.; Baker, A.E.

    1993-01-01

    Risk based analysis is a tool becoming available to both engineers and managers to aid decision making concerning plant matters such as In-Service Inspection (ISI). In order to develop a risk based method, some form of Structural Reliability Risk Assessment (SRRA) needs to be performed to provide a probability of failure ranking for all sites around the plant. A Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) can then be carried out to combine these possible events with the capability of plant safety systems and procedures, to establish the consequences of failure for the sites. In this way the probability of failures are converted into a risk based ranking which can be used to assist the process of deciding which sites should be included in an ISI programme. This paper reviews the technique and typical results of a risk based ranking assessment carried out for nuclear power plant pipework. (author)

  8. RISK REDUCTION WITH A FUZZY EXPERT EXPLORATION TOOL

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robert S. Balch; Ron Broadhead

    2005-03-01

    Incomplete or sparse data such as geologic or formation characteristics introduce a high level of risk for oil exploration and development projects. ''Expert'' systems developed and used in several disciplines and industries have demonstrated beneficial results when working with sparse data. State-of-the-art expert exploration tools, relying on a database, and computer maps generated by neural networks and user inputs, have been developed through the use of ''fuzzy'' logic, a mathematical treatment of imprecise or non-explicit parameters and values. Oil prospecting risk has been reduced with the use of these properly verified and validated ''Fuzzy Expert Exploration (FEE) Tools.'' Through the course of this project, FEE Tools and supporting software were developed for two producing formations in southeast New Mexico. Tools of this type can be beneficial in many regions of the U.S. by enabling risk reduction in oil and gas prospecting as well as decreased prospecting and development costs. In today's oil industry environment, many smaller exploration companies lack the resources of a pool of expert exploration personnel. Downsizing, volatile oil prices, and scarcity of domestic exploration funds have also affected larger companies, and will, with time, affect the end users of oil industry products in the U.S. as reserves are depleted. The FEE Tools benefit a diverse group in the U.S., allowing a more efficient use of scarce funds, and potentially reducing dependence on foreign oil and providing lower product prices for consumers.

  9. ASTARTE: Assessment Strategy and Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baptista, M. A.; Yalciner, A. C.; Canals, M.

    2014-12-01

    enhancement of the Tsunami Warning System in the NEAM region in terms of monitoring, early warning and forecast, governance and resilience. This work is funded by project ASTARTE - Assessment, STrategy And Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe. Grant 603839, 7th FP (ENV.2013.6.4-3 ENV.2013.6.4-3)

  10. Development and Validation of a Model to Predict Absolute Vascular Risk Reduction by Moderate-Intensity Statin Therapy in Individual Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: The Anglo Scandinavian Cardiac Outcomes Trial, Antihypertensive and Lipid-Lowering Treatment to Prevent Heart Attack Trial, and Collaborative Atorvastatin Diabetes Study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kaasenbrood, Lotte; Poulter, Neil R.; Sever, Peter S.; Colhoun, Helen M.; Livingstone, Shona J.; Boekholdt, S. Matthijs; Pressel, Sara L.; Davis, Barry R.; van der Graaf, Yolanda; Visseren, Frank L. J.

    2016-01-01

    In this study, we aimed to translate the average relative effect of statin therapy from trial data to the individual patient with type 2 diabetes mellitus by developing and validating a model to predict individualized absolute risk reductions (ARR) of cardiovascular events. Data of 2725 patients

  11. Binomial Distribution Sample Confidence Intervals Estimation 7. Absolute Risk Reduction and ARR-like Expressions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrei ACHIMAŞ CADARIU

    2004-08-01

    Full Text Available Assessments of a controlled clinical trial suppose to interpret some key parameters as the controlled event rate, experimental event date, relative risk, absolute risk reduction, relative risk reduction, number needed to treat when the effect of the treatment are dichotomous variables. Defined as the difference in the event rate between treatment and control groups, the absolute risk reduction is the parameter that allowed computing the number needed to treat. The absolute risk reduction is compute when the experimental treatment reduces the risk for an undesirable outcome/event. In medical literature when the absolute risk reduction is report with its confidence intervals, the method used is the asymptotic one, even if it is well know that may be inadequate. The aim of this paper is to introduce and assess nine methods of computing confidence intervals for absolute risk reduction and absolute risk reduction – like function.Computer implementations of the methods use the PHP language. Methods comparison uses the experimental errors, the standard deviations, and the deviation relative to the imposed significance level for specified sample sizes. Six methods of computing confidence intervals for absolute risk reduction and absolute risk reduction-like functions were assessed using random binomial variables and random sample sizes.The experiments shows that the ADAC, and ADAC1 methods obtains the best overall performance of computing confidence intervals for absolute risk reduction.

  12. Investigating obesity risk-reduction behaviours and psychosocial factors in Chinese Americans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liou, Doreen; Bauer, Kathleen; Bai, Yeon

    2014-11-01

    The purpose of this research was to examine the attitudes, beliefs and behaviours related to obesity risk reduction in Chinese Americans. A questionnaire was administered to a convenience sample of 300 US-born and foreign-born Chinese Americans residing in the New York metropolitan area, ranging from 18 to 40 years of age. Obesity risk reduction behaviours and psychosocial variables derived from the Theory of Planned Behaviour and Health Belief Model were measured. Acculturation was assessed using a modified Suinn-Lew Asian Self-Identity Acculturation Scale. Frequency distributions were delineated and stepwise regression analyses were analysed for different acculturation groups. 65% of the respondents were female and the mean age of the sample was 26 years. Respondents indicated the most commonly practised behaviour to be eating home-cooked meals instead of restaurant-prepared foods. Perceived barriers to adopting obesity risk-reduction behaviours included convenience of consuming fast foods, cost, lack of time to prepare home-cooked meals, and the physical environment of unhealthy foods. In predicting intention to perform obesity risk-reduction behaviours, attitude was significant for 'western-identified' individuals. In 'Asian-identified' individuals, perceived behavioural control, self-efficacy and perceived benefits were salient. Nutrition educators working with Chinese Americans need to address self-efficacy in preparing plant-based, home-cooked meals and making healthy choices at fast-food restaurants with portion control. Concrete and perceived barriers such as lack of time and convenience need to be addressed in nutrition education interventions. Educators need to identify new channels and media outlets to disseminate practical, easy-to-implement behaviours for obesity risk reduction that are socially acceptable. © Royal Society for Public Health 2013.

  13. Wildfire Risk Main Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    Earth Data Analysis Center, University of New Mexico — The model combines three modeled fire behavior parameters (rate of spread, flame length, crown fire potential) and one modeled ecological health measure (fire regime...

  14. A procedure for seismic risk reduction in Campania Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zuccaro, G.; Palmieri, M.; Maggiò, F.; Cicalese, S.; Grassi, V.; Rauci, M.

    2008-07-01

    The Campania Region has set and performed a peculiar procedure in the field of seismic risk reduction. Great attention has been paid to public strategic buildings such as town halls, civil protection buildings and schools. The Ordinance 3274 promulgate in the 2004 by the Italian central authority obliged the owners of strategic buildings to perform seismic analyses within 2008 in order to check the safety of the structures and the adequacy to the use. In the procedure the Campania region, instead of the local authorities, ensure the complete drafting of seismic checks through financial resources of the Italian Government. A regional scientific technical committee has been constituted, composed of scientific experts, academics in seismic engineering. The committee has drawn up guidelines for the processing of seismic analyses. At the same time, the Region has issued a public competition to select technical seismic engineering experts to appoint seismic analysis in accordance with guidelines. The scientific committee has the option of requiring additional documents and studies in order to approve the safety checks elaborated. The Committee is supported by a technical and administrative secretariat composed of a group of expert in seismic engineering. At the moment several seismic safety checks have been completed. The results will be presented in this paper. Moreover, the policy to mitigate the seismic risk, set by Campania region, was to spend the most of the financial resources available on structural strengthening of public strategic buildings rather than in safety checks. A first set of buildings of which the response under seismic action was already known by data and studies of vulnerability previously realised, were selected for immediate retrofitting designs. Secondly, an other set of buildings were identified for structural strengthening. These were selected by using the criteria specified in the Guide Line prepared by the Scientific Committee and based on

  15. A procedure for seismic risk reduction in Campania Region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zuccaro, G.; Palmieri, M.; Cicalese, S.; Grassi, V.; Rauci, M.; Maggio, F.

    2008-01-01

    The Campania Region has set and performed a peculiar procedure in the field of seismic risk reduction. Great attention has been paid to public strategic buildings such as town halls, civil protection buildings and schools. The Ordinance 3274 promulgate in the 2004 by the Italian central authority obliged the owners of strategic buildings to perform seismic analyses within 2008 in order to check the safety of the structures and the adequacy to the use. In the procedure the Campania region, instead of the local authorities, ensure the complete drafting of seismic checks through financial resources of the Italian Government. A regional scientific technical committee has been constituted, composed of scientific experts, academics in seismic engineering. The committee has drawn up guidelines for the processing of seismic analyses. At the same time, the Region has issued a public competition to select technical seismic engineering experts to appoint seismic analysis in accordance with guidelines. The scientific committee has the option of requiring additional documents and studies in order to approve the safety checks elaborated. The Committee is supported by a technical and administrative secretariat composed of a group of expert in seismic engineering. At the moment several seismic safety checks have been completed. The results will be presented in this paper. Moreover, the policy to mitigate the seismic risk, set by Campania region, was to spend the most of the financial resources available on structural strengthening of public strategic buildings rather than in safety checks. A first set of buildings of which the response under seismic action was already known by data and studies of vulnerability previously realised, were selected for immediate retrofitting designs. Secondly, an other set of buildings were identified for structural strengthening. These were selected by using the criteria specified in the Guide Line prepared by the Scientific Committee and based on

  16. The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, Stephanie L.; Jones, Lucile M.

    2013-01-01

    The Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) tsunami scenario depicts a hypothetical but plausible tsunami created by an earthquake offshore from the Alaska Peninsula and its impacts on the California coast. The tsunami scenario is a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the California Geological Survey (CGS), the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services (Cal OES), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), other Federal, State, County, and local agencies, private companies, and academic and other institutions. This document presents evidence for past tsunamis, the scientific basis for the source, likely inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental and ecological impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management and evacuation challenges, and policy implications for California associated with this hypothetical tsunami. We also discuss ongoing mitigation efforts by the State of California and new communication products. The intended users are those who need to make mitigation decisions before future tsunamis, and those who will need to make rapid decisions during tsunami events. The results of the tsunami scenario will help managers understand the context and consequences of their decisions and how they may improve preparedness and response. An evaluation component will assess the effectiveness of the scenario process for target stakeholders in a separate report to improve similar efforts in the future.

  17. Development of the Motivation to Change Lifestyle and Health Behaviours for Dementia Risk Reduction Scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarang Kim

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Background and Aims: It is not yet understood how attitudes concerning dementia risk may affect motivation to change health behaviours and lifestyle. This study was designed to develop a reliable and valid theory-based measure to understand beliefs underpinning the lifestyle and health behavioural changes needed for dementia risk reduction. Methods: 617 participants aged ≥50 years completed a theory-based questionnaire, namely, the Motivation to Change Lifestyle and Health Behaviours for Dementia Risk Reduction (MCLHB-DRR scale. The MCLHB-DRR consists of 53 items, reflecting seven subscales of the Health Belief Model. Results: Confirmatory factor analysis was performed and revealed that a seven-factor solution with 27 items fitted the data (comparative fit index = 0.920, root-mean-square error of approximation = 0.047 better than the original 53 items. Internal reliability (α = 0.608-0.864 and test-retest reliability (α = 0.552-0.776 were moderate to high. Measurement of invariance across gender and age was also demonstrated. Conclusions: These results propose that the MCLHB-DRR is a useful tool in assessing the beliefs and attitudes of males and females aged ≥50 years towards dementia risk reduction. This measure can be used in the development and evaluation of interventions aimed at dementia prevention.

  18. Towards improved public awareness for climate related disaster risk reduction in South Africa: A Participatory Development Communication perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tigere Chagutah

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available Southern Africa has frequently been struck by damaging climate hazards which increasingly continue to threaten sustainable development efforts. Ominously, climate models predict that the incidence of major ‘wet’ events, such as floods and cyclones will increase in frequency against the background of a changing climate. Unfortunately, local mechanisms for communicating and raising public awareness of the consequent risks and appropriate risk reduction options remain weak. At the core of policy responses to the threat posed by climate related hazards, the South African government has adopted a disaster risk reduction approach to disaster management. This article details how, among many other measures to limit the adverse impacts of natural hazards, South Africa’s National Disaster Management Framework calls for the implementation of effective public awareness activities to increase the knowledge among communities of the risks they face and what risk-minimising actions they can take. Emphasis is laid on the importance of information provision and knowledge building among at-risk communities. Citing established theories and strategies, the author proposes a participatory development communication approach through Development Support Communication strategies for the provision of disaster risk reduction public awareness activities by government and other disaster risk reduction role-players in South Africa. By way of a review of completed studies and literature, the article provides guidance on the planning and execution of successful public communication campaigns and also discusses the constraints of communication campaigns as an intervention for comprehensive disaster risk reduction.

  19. 6th International Workshop on Model Reduction in Reactive Flow

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-01-01

    reduction in reacting flow . Registration DateRegistration TypeFirst Name Middle NameLast Name Affiliation US State /Canadian ProvinceState/Province/R gion...Report: 6th International Workshop on Model Reduction in Reactive Flow The views, opinions and/or findings contained in this report are those of the...Agreement Number: W911NF-17-1-0121 Organization: Princeton University Title: 6th International Workshop on Model Reduction in Reactive Flow Report Term

  20. Modelling allergenic risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Birot, Sophie

    combines second order Monte-Carlo simulations with Bayesian inferences [13]. An alternative method using second order Monte-Carlo simulations was proposed to take into account the uncertainty from the inputs. The uncertainty propagation from the inputs to the risk of allergic reaction was also evaluated...... countries is proposed. Thus, the allergen risk assessment can be performed cross-nationally and for the correct food group. Then the two probabilistic risk assessment methods usually used were reviewed and compared. First order Monte-Carlo simulations are used in one method [14], whereas the other one......Up to 20 million Europeans suffer from food allergies. Due to the lack of knowledge about why food allergies developed or how to protect allergic consumers from the offending food, food allergy management is mainly based on food allergens avoidance. The iFAAM project (Integrated approaches to Food...

  1. Interpolation-Based Condensation Model Reduction Part 1: Frequency Window Reduction Method Application to Structural Acoustics

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Ingel, R

    1999-01-01

    .... Projection operators are employed for the model reduction or condensation process. Interpolation is then introduced over a user defined frequency window, which can have real and imaginary boundaries and be quite large. Hermitian...

  2. The air emissions risk assessment model (AERAM)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gratt, L.B.

    1991-01-01

    AERAM is an environmental analysis and power generation station investment decision support tool. AERAM calculates the public health risk (in terms of the lifetime cancers) in the nearby population from pollutants released into the air. AERAM consists of four main subroutines: Emissions, Air, Exposure and Risk. The Emission subroutine uses power plant parameters to calculate the expected release of the pollutants. A coal-fired and oil-fired power plant are currently available. A gas-fired plant model is under preparation. The release of the pollutants into the air is followed by their dispersal in the environment. The dispersion in the Air Subroutine uses the Environmental Protection Agency's model, Industrial Source Complex-Long Term. Additional dispersion models (Industrial Source Complex - Short Term and Cooling Tower Drift) are being implemented for future AERAM versions. The Expose Subroutine uses the ambient concentrations to compute population exposures for the pollutants of concern. The exposures are used with corresponding dose-response model in the Risk Subroutine to estimate both the total population risk and individual risk. The risk for the dispersion receptor-population centroid for the maximum concentration is also calculated for regulatory-population purposes. In addition, automated interfaces with AirTox (an air risk decision model) have been implemented to extend AERAM's steady-state single solution to the decision-under-uncertainty domain. AERAM was used for public health risks, the investment decision for additional pollution control systems based on health risk reductions, and the economics of fuel vs. health risk tradeoffs. AERAM provides that state-of-the-art capability for evaluating the public health impact airborne toxic substances in response to regulations and public concern

  3. Model reduction methods for vector autoregressive processes

    CERN Document Server

    Brüggemann, Ralf

    2004-01-01

    1. 1 Objective of the Study Vector autoregressive (VAR) models have become one of the dominant research tools in the analysis of macroeconomic time series during the last two decades. The great success of this modeling class started with Sims' (1980) critique of the traditional simultaneous equation models (SEM). Sims criticized the use of 'too many incredible restrictions' based on 'supposed a priori knowledge' in large scale macroeconometric models which were popular at that time. Therefore, he advo­ cated largely unrestricted reduced form multivariate time series models, unrestricted VAR models in particular. Ever since his influential paper these models have been employed extensively to characterize the underlying dynamics in systems of time series. In particular, tools to summarize the dynamic interaction between the system variables, such as impulse response analysis or forecast error variance decompo­ sitions, have been developed over the years. The econometrics of VAR models and related quantities i...

  4. Data-Driven Model Order Reduction for Bayesian Inverse Problems

    KAUST Repository

    Cui, Tiangang; Youssef, Marzouk; Willcox, Karen

    2014-01-01

    One of the major challenges in using MCMC for the solution of inverse problems is the repeated evaluation of computationally expensive numerical models. We develop a data-driven projection- based model order reduction technique to reduce

  5. Pengaruh Brand Credibility Terhadap Information Efficiency Dan Risk Reduction, Serta Dampaknya Atas Repurchase Intention

    OpenAIRE

    Faisal, Aekram

    2015-01-01

    This research conducted to know the influence of Brand Credibility to Information efficiency and Risk reduction, also the influence of Information efficiency and Risk reduction to Repurchase intention. This research aimed to know the influence of Brand Credibility to Repurchase intention that mediated by Information efficiency and Risk reduction. The methodology of this research is testing hypothesis research. The sample collecting by questionnaire of 150 respondents from Starb...

  6. Relationships among Trust in Messages, Risk Perception, and Risk Reduction Preferences Based upon Avian Influenza in Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, David; Fang, Chen-Ling; Tsai, Bi-Kun; Lan, Li-Chi; Hsu, Wen-Shan

    2012-01-01

    Improvements in communications technology enable consumers to receive information through diverse channels. In the case of avian influenza, information repeated by the mass media socially amplifies the consumer awareness of risks. Facing indeterminate risks, consumers may feel anxious and increase their risk perception. When consumers trust the information published by the media, their uncertainty toward avian influenza may decrease. Consumers might take some actions to reduce risk. Therefore, this study focuses on relationships among trust in messages, risk perception and risk reduction preferences. This study administered 525 random samples and consumer survey questionnaires in different city of Taiwan in 2007. Through statistical analysis, the results demonstrate: (1) the higher the trust consumers have in messages about avian influenza, the lower their risk perceptions are; (2) the higher the consumers’ risk perceptions are and, therefore, the higher their desired level of risk reductive, the more likely they are to accept risk reduction strategies; (3) consumer attributes such as age, education level, and marital status correlate with significant differences in risk perception and risk reduction preferences acceptance. Gender has significant differences only in risk reduction preferences and not in risk perception. PMID:23066394

  7. Relationships among Trust in Messages, Risk Perception, and Risk Reduction Preferences Based upon Avian Influenza in Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wen-Shan Hsu

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Improvements in communications technology enable consumers to receive information through diverse channels. In the case of avian influenza, information repeated by the mass media socially amplifies the consumer awareness of risks. Facing indeterminate risks, consumers may feel anxious and increase their risk perception. When consumers trust the information published by the media, their uncertainty toward avian influenza may decrease. Consumers might take some actions to reduce risk. Therefore, this study focuses on relationships among trust in messages, risk perception and risk reduction preferences. This study administered 525 random samples and consumer survey questionnaires in different city of Taiwan in 2007. Through statistical analysis, the results demonstrate: (1 the higher the trust consumers have in messages about avian influenza, the lower their risk perceptions are; (2 the higher the consumers’ risk perceptions are and, therefore, the higher their desired level of risk reductive, the more likely they are to accept risk reduction strategies; (3 consumer attributes such as age, education level, and marital status correlate with significant differences in risk perception and risk reduction preferences acceptance. Gender has significant differences only in risk reduction preferences and not in risk perception.

  8. The impact of parent involvement in an effective adolescent risk reduction intervention on sexual risk communication and adolescent outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Bo; Stanton, Bonita; Deveaux, Lynette; Li, Xiaoming; Koci, Veronica; Lunn, Sonja

    2014-12-01

    Parent involvement in prevention efforts targeting adolescents increases the impact of such programs. However, the majority of risk-reduction intervention programs that are implemented through schools do not include parents, in part because most existing parental interventions require significant time commitment by parents. We designed a brief parent-adolescent sexual risk communication intervention to be delivered with an effective HIV prevention intervention as part of a randomized, controlled trial among 2,564 grade 10 students and their parents in the Bahamas. Mixed effects modeling analysis was conducted to evaluate the effect of the brief parent-adolescent communication intervention using four waves of longitudinal data. Results indicate that a brief parent-adolescent communication intervention is effective in improving parent-adolescent communication on sex-related issues and perceived parental monitoring as well as the youth's condom use skills and self-efficacy. There is a marginal effect on consistent condom use. In addition, there is an apparent dose effect of the brief parent intervention on perceived parent-adolescent sexual risk communication and adolescent outcomes. These findings suggest that adolescent risk reduction interventions should include a brief parent-adolescent communication intervention that should be reinforced by periodic boosters in order to enhance the impact of adolescent HIV prevention programs.

  9. Selection of risk reduction portfolios under interval-valued probabilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Toppila, Antti; Salo, Ahti

    2017-01-01

    A central problem in risk management is that of identifying the optimal combination (or portfolio) of improvements that enhance the reliability of the system most through reducing failure event probabilities, subject to the availability of resources. This optimal portfolio can be sensitive with regard to epistemic uncertainties about the failure events' probabilities. In this paper, we develop an optimization model to support the allocation of resources to improvements that mitigate risks in coherent systems in which interval-valued probabilities defined by lower and upper bounds are employed to capture epistemic uncertainties. Decision recommendations are based on portfolio dominance: a resource allocation portfolio is dominated if there exists another portfolio that improves system reliability (i) at least as much for all feasible failure probabilities and (ii) strictly more for some feasible probabilities. Based on non-dominated portfolios, recommendations about improvements to implement are derived by inspecting in how many non-dominated portfolios a given improvement is contained. We present an exact method for computing the non-dominated portfolios. We also present an approximate method that simplifies the reliability function using total order interactions so that larger problem instances can be solved with reasonable computational effort. - Highlights: • Reliability allocation under epistemic uncertainty about probabilities. • Comparison of alternatives using dominance. • Computational methods for generating the non-dominated alternatives. • Deriving decision recommendations that are robust with respect to epistemic uncertainty.

  10. Multilevel joint competing risk models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karunarathna, G. H. S.; Sooriyarachchi, M. R.

    2017-09-01

    Joint modeling approaches are often encountered for different outcomes of competing risk time to event and count in many biomedical and epidemiology studies in the presence of cluster effect. Hospital length of stay (LOS) has been the widely used outcome measure in hospital utilization due to the benchmark measurement for measuring multiple terminations such as discharge, transferred, dead and patients who have not completed the event of interest at the follow up period (censored) during hospitalizations. Competing risk models provide a method of addressing such multiple destinations since classical time to event models yield biased results when there are multiple events. In this study, the concept of joint modeling has been applied to the dengue epidemiology in Sri Lanka, 2006-2008 to assess the relationship between different outcomes of LOS and platelet count of dengue patients with the district cluster effect. Two key approaches have been applied to build up the joint scenario. In the first approach, modeling each competing risk separately using the binary logistic model, treating all other events as censored under the multilevel discrete time to event model, while the platelet counts are assumed to follow a lognormal regression model. The second approach is based on the endogeneity effect in the multilevel competing risks and count model. Model parameters were estimated using maximum likelihood based on the Laplace approximation. Moreover, the study reveals that joint modeling approach yield more precise results compared to fitting two separate univariate models, in terms of AIC (Akaike Information Criterion).

  11. Power system coherency and model reduction

    CERN Document Server

    Chow, Joe H

    2014-01-01

    This book provides a comprehensive treatment for understanding interarea modes in large power systems and obtaining reduced-order models using the coherency concept and selective modal analysis method.

  12. Social Participation and Disaster Risk Reduction Behaviors in Tsunami Prone Areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Witvorapong, Nopphol; Muttarak, Raya; Pothisiri, Wiraporn

    2015-01-01

    This paper examines the relationships between social participation and disaster risk reduction actions. A survey of 557 households in tsunami prone areas in Phang Nga, Thailand was conducted following the 2012 Indian Ocean earthquakes. We use a multivariate probit model to jointly estimate the likelihood of undertaking three responses to earthquake and tsunami hazards (namely, (1) following disaster-related news closely, (2) preparing emergency kits and/or having a family emergency plan, and (3) having an intention to migrate) and community participation. We find that those who experienced losses from the 2004 tsunami are more likely to participate in community activities and respond to earthquake hazards. Compared to men, women are more likely to prepare emergency kits and/or have an emergency plan and have a greater intention to migrate. Living in a community with a higher proportion of women with tertiary education increases the probability of engaging in community activities and carrying out disaster risk reduction measures. Individuals who participate in village-based activities are 5.2% more likely to undertake all three risk reduction actions compared to those not engaging in community activities. This implies that encouraging participation in community activities can have positive externalities in disaster mitigation. PMID:26153891

  13. Prostate Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing prostate cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  14. Colorectal Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing colorectal cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  15. Esophageal Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing esophageal cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  16. Bladder Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing bladder cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  17. Lung Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing lung cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  18. Breast Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing breast cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  19. Pancreatic Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing pancreatic cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  20. Ovarian Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing ovarian cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  1. Liver Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing liver cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  2. Testicular Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of testicular cervical cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  3. Cervical Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing cervical cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  4. Risk modelling in portfolio optimization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lam, W. H.; Jaaman, Saiful Hafizah Hj.; Isa, Zaidi

    2013-09-01

    Risk management is very important in portfolio optimization. The mean-variance model has been used in portfolio optimization to minimize the investment risk. The objective of the mean-variance model is to minimize the portfolio risk and achieve the target rate of return. Variance is used as risk measure in the mean-variance model. The purpose of this study is to compare the portfolio composition as well as performance between the optimal portfolio of mean-variance model and equally weighted portfolio. Equally weighted portfolio means the proportions that are invested in each asset are equal. The results show that the portfolio composition of the mean-variance optimal portfolio and equally weighted portfolio are different. Besides that, the mean-variance optimal portfolio gives better performance because it gives higher performance ratio than the equally weighted portfolio.

  5. Models for Pesticide Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA considers the toxicity of the pesticide as well as the amount of pesticide to which a person or the environments may be exposed in risk assessment. Scientists use mathematical models to predict pesticide concentrations in exposure assessment.

  6. Social Media Use and Sexual Risk Reduction Behavior Among Minority Youth: Seeking Safe Sex Information.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stevens, Robin; Gilliard-Matthews, Stacia; Dunaev, Jamie; Todhunter-Reid, Abigail; Brawner, Bridgette; Stewart, Jennifer

    Sexual health is an important area of study-particularly for minority youth and youth living in disadvantaged neighborhoods. The purpose of the research was to examine the sources of sexual health information associated with youth adopting sexual risk reduction behaviors. Data collection took place in a small city in the Northeastern United States using cross-sectional behavioral surveys and modified venue-based sampling. Participants included 249 African American and Latino youth aged 13-24. Participants reported their sources of information about contraception and human immunodeficiency virus/sexually transmitted disease, such as TV/movies, parents, social media; their intentions to have sex; and condom and contraception use during their last sexual activity. Social media use, past pregnancy experience, past sexual history, age, and gender were also measured. Standard tests of bivariate association (chi-square and F tests) were used to examine initial associations between sexual risk reduction behavior and exposure to sexual risk reduction information on social media. Logistic regression models were used to test multivariate relationships between information sources and sexual risk reduction behavior. Youth who were exposed to sexual health messages on social media were 2.69 times (p < .05) and 2.49 times (p < .08) more likely to have used contraception or a condom at last intercourse, respectively. Parents, schools, or traditional media as information sources were not significantly associated with contractive use or condom use at last intercourse. Youth sexual behavior is increasingly informed by social media messages. Health practitioners should utilize social media as an important health promotion tool.

  7. Model Reduction in Dynamic Finite Element Analysis of Lightweight Structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flodén, Ola; Persson, Kent; Sjöström, Anders

    2012-01-01

    models may be created by assembling models of floor and wall structures into large models of complete buildings. When assembling the floor and wall models, the number of degrees of freedom quickly increases to exceed the limits of computer capacity, at least in a reasonable amount of computational time...... Hz. Three different methods of model reduction were investigated; Guyan reduction, component mode synthesis and a third approach where a new finite element model was created with structural elements. Eigenvalue and steady-state analyses were performed in order to compare the errors...

  8. Model reduction using a posteriori analysis

    KAUST Repository

    Whiteley, Jonathan P.

    2010-01-01

    Mathematical models in biology and physiology are often represented by large systems of non-linear ordinary differential equations. In many cases, an observed behaviour may be written as a linear functional of the solution of this system of equations. A technique is presented in this study for automatically identifying key terms in the system of equations that are responsible for a given linear functional of the solution. This technique is underpinned by ideas drawn from a posteriori error analysis. This concept has been used in finite element analysis to identify regions of the computational domain and components of the solution where a fine computational mesh should be used to ensure accuracy of the numerical solution. We use this concept to identify regions of the computational domain and components of the solution where accurate representation of the mathematical model is required for accuracy of the functional of interest. The technique presented is demonstrated by application to a model problem, and then to automatically deduce known results from a cell-level cardiac electrophysiology model. © 2010 Elsevier Inc.

  9. Model reduction using a posteriori analysis

    KAUST Repository

    Whiteley, Jonathan P.

    2010-05-01

    Mathematical models in biology and physiology are often represented by large systems of non-linear ordinary differential equations. In many cases, an observed behaviour may be written as a linear functional of the solution of this system of equations. A technique is presented in this study for automatically identifying key terms in the system of equations that are responsible for a given linear functional of the solution. This technique is underpinned by ideas drawn from a posteriori error analysis. This concept has been used in finite element analysis to identify regions of the computational domain and components of the solution where a fine computational mesh should be used to ensure accuracy of the numerical solution. We use this concept to identify regions of the computational domain and components of the solution where accurate representation of the mathematical model is required for accuracy of the functional of interest. The technique presented is demonstrated by application to a model problem, and then to automatically deduce known results from a cell-level cardiac electrophysiology model. © 2010 Elsevier Inc.

  10. Model Order Reduction for Non Linear Mechanics

    OpenAIRE

    Pinillo, Rubén

    2017-01-01

    Context: Automotive industry is moving towards a new generation of cars. Main idea: Cars are furnished with radars, cameras, sensors, etc… providing useful information about the environment surrounding the car. Goals: Provide an efficient model for the radar input/output. Reducing computational costs by means of big data techniques.

  11. Model order reduction techniques with applications in finite element analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Qu, Zu-Qing

    2004-01-01

    Despite the continued rapid advance in computing speed and memory the increase in the complexity of models used by engineers persists in outpacing them. Even where there is access to the latest hardware, simulations are often extremely computationally intensive and time-consuming when full-blown models are under consideration. The need to reduce the computational cost involved when dealing with high-order/many-degree-of-freedom models can be offset by adroit computation. In this light, model-reduction methods have become a major goal of simulation and modeling research. Model reduction can also ameliorate problems in the correlation of widely used finite-element analyses and test analysis models produced by excessive system complexity. Model Order Reduction Techniques explains and compares such methods focusing mainly on recent work in dynamic condensation techniques: - Compares the effectiveness of static, exact, dynamic, SEREP and iterative-dynamic condensation techniques in producing valid reduced-order mo...

  12. Risk management study for the Hanford Site facilities: Risk reduction cost comparison for the retired Hanford Site facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coles, G.A.; Egge, R.G.; Senger, E.; Shultz, M.W.; Taylor, W.E.

    1994-02-01

    This document provides a cost-comparison evaluation for implementing certain risk-reduction measures and their effect on the overall risk of the 100 and 200 Area retired, surplus facilities. The evaluation is based on conditions that existed at the time the risk evaluation team performed facility investigations, and does not acknowledge risk-reduction measures that occurred soon after risk identification. This evaluation is one part of an overall risk management study for these facilities. The retired facilities investigated for this evaluation are located in the 100 and 200 Areas of the 1450-km 2 Hanford Site. The Hanford Site is a semiarid tract of land in southeastern Washington State. The nearest population center is Richland, Washington, (population 32,000) 30 km southeast of the 200 Area. This cost-comparison evaluation (1) determines relative costs for reducing risk to acceptable levels; (2) compares the cost of reducing risk using different risk-reduction options; and (3) compares the cost of reducing risks at different facilities. The result is an identification of the cost effective risk-reduction measures. Supporting information required to develop costs of the various risk-reduction options also is included

  13. Risk management study for the Hanford Site facilities: Risk reduction cost comparison for the retired Hanford Site facilities. Volume 4

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coles, G.A.; Egge, R.G.; Senger, E.; Shultz, M.W.; Taylor, W.E.

    1994-02-01

    This document provides a cost-comparison evaluation for implementing certain risk-reduction measures and their effect on the overall risk of the 100 and 200 Area retired, surplus facilities. The evaluation is based on conditions that existed at the time the risk evaluation team performed facility investigations, and does not acknowledge risk-reduction measures that occurred soon after risk identification. This evaluation is one part of an overall risk management study for these facilities. The retired facilities investigated for this evaluation are located in the 100 and 200 Areas of the 1450-km{sup 2} Hanford Site. The Hanford Site is a semiarid tract of land in southeastern Washington State. The nearest population center is Richland, Washington, (population 32,000) 30 km southeast of the 200 Area. This cost-comparison evaluation (1) determines relative costs for reducing risk to acceptable levels; (2) compares the cost of reducing risk using different risk-reduction options; and (3) compares the cost of reducing risks at different facilities. The result is an identification of the cost effective risk-reduction measures. Supporting information required to develop costs of the various risk-reduction options also is included.

  14. Modeling renewable energy company risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sadorsky, Perry

    2012-01-01

    The renewable energy sector is one of the fastest growing components of the energy industry and along with this increased demand for renewable energy there has been an increase in investing and financing activities. The tradeoff between risk and return in the renewable energy sector is, however, precarious. Renewable energy companies are often among the riskiest types of companies to invest in and for this reason it is necessary to have a good understanding of the risk factors. This paper uses a variable beta model to investigate the determinants of renewable energy company risk. The empirical results show that company sales growth has a negative impact on company risk while oil price increases have a positive impact on company risk. When oil price returns are positive and moderate, increases in sales growth can offset the impact of oil price returns and this leads to lower systematic risk.

  15. Model reduction of systems with localized nonlinearities.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Segalman, Daniel Joseph

    2006-03-01

    An LDRD funded approach to development of reduced order models for systems with local nonlinearities is presented. This method is particularly useful for problems of structural dynamics, but has potential application in other fields. The key elements of this approach are (1) employment of eigen modes of a reference linear system, (2) incorporation of basis functions with an appropriate discontinuity at the location of the nonlinearity. Galerkin solution using the above combination of basis functions appears to capture the dynamics of the system with a small basis set. For problems involving small amplitude dynamics, the addition of discontinuous (joint) modes appears to capture the nonlinear mechanics correctly while preserving the modal form of the predictions. For problems involving large amplitude dynamics of realistic joint models (macro-slip), the use of appropriate joint modes along with sufficient basis eigen modes to capture the frequencies of the system greatly enhances convergence, though the modal nature the result is lost. Also observed is that when joint modes are used in conjunction with a small number of elastic eigen modes in problems of macro-slip of realistic joint models, the resulting predictions are very similar to those of the full solution when seen through a low pass filter. This has significance both in terms of greatly reducing the number of degrees of freedom of the problem and in terms of facilitating the use of much larger time steps.

  16. Teaching medical students cancer risk reduction nutrition counseling using a multimedia program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolasa, K M; Jobe, A C; Miller, M G; Clay, M C

    1999-03-01

    There are many barriers to medical students receiving education about the linkage between nutrition and cancer, including the lack of role models and teachers and insufficient curricular time. We tested the use of a multimedia program as a possible solution to teaching diet-risk assessment and counseling skills. Images of Cancer Prevention, The Nutrition Link is a CD-ROM multimedia program that was developed and evaluated by 147 medical students. Pre-use and post-use surveys, computer log files, and recorded response sessions were used to determine the learner's 1) ease in using the program, 2) attitudes about the treatment of the content, 3) knowledge gain, and 4) attitudes about the role of physicians in nutrition assessment and counseling for cancer risk reduction. Students improved their knowledge of dietary guidelines for cancer risk reduction and made positive changes in their attitudes toward the role of physicians in dietary counseling. However, most students reported that they would not use the program unless it was required that they do so. The multimedia program was successful; it affected students' knowledge and attitudes concerning nutrition as a modifiable risk factor for some cancers. In addition, the design and delivery of the multimedia product was positively reviewed by the students for ease of access, message design, individualized instruction, and flexibility. Despite these favorable ratings, it was not clear that students would use the program unless required to do so.

  17. A semi-quantitative model for risk appreciation and risk weighing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bos, Peter M.J.; Boon, Polly E.; van der Voet, Hilko

    2009-01-01

    Risk managers need detailed information on (1) the type of effect, (2) the size (severity) of the expected effect(s) and (3) the fraction of the population at risk to decide on well-balanced risk reduction measures. A previously developed integrated probabilistic risk assessment (IPRA) model...... provides quantitative information on these three parameters. A semi-quantitative tool is presented that combines information on these parameters into easy-readable charts that will facilitate risk evaluations of exposure situations and decisions on risk reduction measures. This tool is based on a concept...... detailed information on the estimated health impact in a given exposure situation. These graphs will facilitate the discussions on appropriate risk reduction measures to be taken....

  18. Modelling the Reduction of Project Making Duration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oleinik Pavel

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The article points out why earlier patterns of investment process were ineffective in developing the construction projects and shows sources for reducing of its total duration. It describes the procedure of statistical modeling and obtaining medium-term time parameters required for modern pattern of project-making; offers design formulas for assessment of total time required for project-making as well as for its main stages; reveals advantage of modern system of project-making against traditional one by comparing indicators of their duration.

  19. Model Order Reduction for Electronic Circuits:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hjorth, Poul G.; Shontz, Suzanne

    Electronic circuits are ubiquitous; they are used in numerous industries including: the semiconductor, communication, robotics, auto, and music industries (among many others). As products become more and more complicated, their electronic circuits also grow in size and complexity. This increased...... in the semiconductor industry. Circuit simulation proceeds by using Maxwell’s equations to create a mathematical model of the circuit. The boundary element method is then used to discretize the equations, and the variational form of the equations are then solved on the graph network....

  20. Fast Multiscale Reservoir Simulations using POD-DEIM Model Reduction

    KAUST Repository

    Ghasemi, Mohammadreza; Yang, Yanfang; Gildin, Eduardo; Efendiev, Yalchin R.; Calo, Victor M.

    2015-01-01

    snapshots are inexpensively computed using local model reduction techniques based on Generalized Multiscale Finite Element Method (GMsFEM) which provides (1) a hierarchical approximation of snapshot vectors (2) adaptive computations by using coarse grids (3

  1. Model reduction by weighted Component Cost Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Jae H.; Skelton, Robert E.

    1990-01-01

    Component Cost Analysis considers any given system driven by a white noise process as an interconnection of different components, and assigns a metric called 'component cost' to each component. These component costs measure the contribution of each component to a predefined quadratic cost function. A reduced-order model of the given system may be obtained by deleting those components that have the smallest component costs. The theory of Component Cost Analysis is extended to include finite-bandwidth colored noises. The results also apply when actuators have dynamics of their own. Closed-form analytical expressions of component costs are also derived for a mechanical system described by its modal data. This is very useful to compute the modal costs of very high order systems. A numerical example for MINIMAST system is presented.

  2. On order reduction in hydrogen isotope distillation models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sarigiannis, D.A.

    1994-01-01

    The design integration of the fuel processing system for the next generation fusion reactor plants (such as ITER and beyond) requires the enhancement of safety features related to the operation of the system. The current drive for inherent safety of hazardous chemical plants warrants the minimization of active toxic or radioactive inventories and the identification of process pathways with minimal risk of accidental or routine releases. New mathematical and numerical tools have been developed for the dynamic simulation and optimization of the safety characteristics related to tritium in all its forms in the fusion fuel processing system. The separation of hydrogen isotopes by cryogenic distillation is a key process therein, due to the importance of the separation performance for the quality of the fuel mixture and the on site inventory, the increased energy requirements for cryogenic operation, and the high order of mathematical complexity required for accurate models, able to predict the transient as well as the steady state behavior of the process. The modeling methodology described here is a part of a new dynamic simulation code that captures the inventory dynamics of all the species in the fusion fuel processing plant. The significant reduction of the computational effort and time required by this code will permit designers to easily explore a variety of design and technology options and assess their impact on the overall power plant safety

  3. Mitigating fall risk: A community fall reduction program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reinoso, Humberto; McCaffrey, Ruth G; Taylor, David W M

    One fourth of all American's over 65 years of age fall each year. Falls are a common and often devastating event that can pose a serious health risk for older adults. Healthcare providers are often unable to spend the time required to assist older adults with fall risk issues. Without a team approach to fall prevention the system remains focused on fragmented levels of health promotion and risk prevention. The specific aim of this project was to engage older adults from the community in a fall risk assessment program, using the Stopping Elderly Accidents, Deaths & Injuries (STEADI) program, and provide feedback on individual participants' risks that participants could share with their primary care physician. Older adults who attended the risk screening were taking medications that are known to increase falls. They mentioned that their health care providers do not screen for falls and appreciated a community based screening. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Reduction of regulatory risk: a network economic approach

    OpenAIRE

    Knieps, Günter; Weiß, Hans-Jörg

    2007-01-01

    Several definitions of regulatory risk are known from the literature. From the perspective of regulatory reform it is important to differentiate between the impact of a given regulatory scheme on the firm's risk exposure and the risk arising from discretionary behavior of regulatory agencies. Whereas the conse-quences of effective regulation in principle are known and accepted, excessive regulatory discretion may cause a strong need for regulatory reform. Regulatory reform focussing on the re...

  5. Citizen science for hydrological risk reduction and resilience building

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Paul, Jonathan D.; Buytaert, Wouter; Allen, Simon; Ballesteros‐Cánovas, Juan A.; Bhusal, Jagat K.; Cieslik, Katarzyna; Clark, Julian; Dugar, Sumit; Hannah, David M.; Stoffel, M.; Dewulf, A.R.P.J.; Dhital, Megh R.; Liu, Wei; Nayaval, Janak Lal; Neupane, Bhanu; Schiller, Arnulf; Smith, P.J.; Supper, Robert

    2017-01-01

    In disaster risk management (DRM), an emerging shift has been noted from broad-scale, top-down assessments toward more participatory, community-based, bottom-up approaches. Arguably, nonscientist local stakeholders have always played an important role in knowledge risk management and resilience

  6. Risk reduction by use of a buffer zone

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wijnant-Timmerman, S.L.; Wiersma, T.

    2008-01-01

    In situations where chemical industries and residential areas are situated close to each other, the population runs a safety risk associated with the accidental release of toxic gases. TNO has investigated the possibilities to reduce this risk by integrating safety measures in the area between the

  7. Valuation of morbidity and mortality risk reductions. Does context matter?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Seested Nielsen, Jytte; Gyrd-Hansen, Dorte; Kjær, Trine

    2012-01-01

    targeting risks of death or risks of ill health should not necessarily be valued equally across sectors. From a welfare economic perspective, the use of the same estimates across contexts – and especially across sectors – could be misleading and in worst case lead to inefficient resource allocations....

  8. The possibility of drought risk reduction in corn production

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pajić Nemanja

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Weather derivatives are contemporary instruments for insurance risk of drought in agricultural production. Corn production is particularly sensitive to this risk, and the amount of the yield of this crop is in significant correlation with the July-August rainfall amount. Oscillations of production output, caused by the risk of drought, are reflected directly on the fluctuations of the financial result. The application of weather derivatives may decrease the variability of the mentioned economic parameter in corn production. In the investigated example of corn production, simulating the application of the weather option the coefficient of variation of realized financial results decreased by 9.64% compared to the version without the insured risk. At the same time, using the analysed insurance instrument, the risk of achieving a negative financial result is eliminated.

  9. H∞ /H2 model reduction through dilated linear matrix inequalities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Adegas, Fabiano Daher; Stoustrup, Jakob

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents sufficient dilated linear matrix inequalities (LMI) conditions to the $H_{infty}$ and $H_{2}$ model reduction problem. A special structure of the auxiliary (slack) variables allows the original model of order $n$ to be reduced to an order $r=n/s$ where $n,r,s in field{N}$. Arb......This paper presents sufficient dilated linear matrix inequalities (LMI) conditions to the $H_{infty}$ and $H_{2}$ model reduction problem. A special structure of the auxiliary (slack) variables allows the original model of order $n$ to be reduced to an order $r=n/s$ where $n,r,s in field...

  10. Information risk and security modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zivic, Predrag

    2005-03-01

    This research paper presentation will feature current frameworks to addressing risk and security modeling and metrics. The paper will analyze technical level risk and security metrics of Common Criteria/ISO15408, Centre for Internet Security guidelines, NSA configuration guidelines and metrics used at this level. Information IT operational standards view on security metrics such as GMITS/ISO13335, ITIL/ITMS and architectural guidelines such as ISO7498-2 will be explained. Business process level standards such as ISO17799, COSO and CobiT will be presented with their control approach to security metrics. Top level, the maturity standards such as SSE-CMM/ISO21827, NSA Infosec Assessment and CobiT will be explored and reviewed. For each defined level of security metrics the research presentation will explore the appropriate usage of these standards. The paper will discuss standards approaches to conducting the risk and security metrics. The research findings will demonstrate the need for common baseline for both risk and security metrics. This paper will show the relation between the attribute based common baseline and corporate assets and controls for risk and security metrics. IT will be shown that such approach spans over all mentioned standards. The proposed approach 3D visual presentation and development of the Information Security Model will be analyzed and postulated. Presentation will clearly demonstrate the benefits of proposed attributes based approach and defined risk and security space for modeling and measuring.

  11. Cabin Environment Physics Risk Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mattenberger, Christopher J.; Mathias, Donovan Leigh

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a Cabin Environment Physics Risk (CEPR) model that predicts the time for an initial failure of Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) functionality to propagate into a hazardous environment and trigger a loss-of-crew (LOC) event. This physics-of failure model allows a probabilistic risk assessment of a crewed spacecraft to account for the cabin environment, which can serve as a buffer to protect the crew during an abort from orbit and ultimately enable a safe return. The results of the CEPR model replace the assumption that failure of the crew critical ECLSS functionality causes LOC instantly, and provide a more accurate representation of the spacecraft's risk posture. The instant-LOC assumption is shown to be excessively conservative and, moreover, can impact the relative risk drivers identified for the spacecraft. This, in turn, could lead the design team to allocate mass for equipment to reduce overly conservative risk estimates in a suboptimal configuration, which inherently increases the overall risk to the crew. For example, available mass could be poorly used to add redundant ECLSS components that have a negligible benefit but appear to make the vehicle safer due to poor assumptions about the propagation time of ECLSS failures.

  12. Insurance, Public Assistance, and Household Flood Risk Reduction: A Comparative Study of Austria, England, and Romania.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanger, Susanne; Linnerooth-Bayer, Joanne; Surminski, Swenja; Nenciu-Posner, Cristina; Lorant, Anna; Ionescu, Radu; Patt, Anthony

    2018-04-01

    In light of increasing losses from floods, many researchers and policymakers are looking for ways to encourage flood risk reduction among communities, business, and households. In this study, we investigate risk-reduction behavior at the household level in three European Union Member States with fundamentally different insurance and compensation schemes. We try to understand if and how insurance and public assistance influence private risk-reduction behavior. Data were collected using a telephone survey (n = 1,849) of household decisionmakers in flood-prone areas. We show that insurance overall is positively associated with private risk-reduction behavior. Warranties, premium discounts, and information provision with respect to risk reduction may be an explanation for this positive relationship in the case of structural measures. Public incentives for risk-reduction measures by means of financial and in-kind support, and particularly through the provision of information, are also associated with enhancing risk reduction. In this study, public compensation is not negatively associated with private risk-reduction behavior. This does not disprove such a relationship, but the negative effect may be mitigated by factors related to respondents' capacity to implement measures or social norms that were not included in the analysis. The data suggest that large-scale flood protection infrastructure creates a sense of security that is associated with a lower level of preparedness. Across the board there is ample room to improve both public and private policies to provide effective incentives for household-level risk reduction. © 2017 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

  13. Minority Households' Willingness-to-Pay for Public and Private Wildfire Risk Reduction in Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonzalez-Caban, A.; Sanchez, J. J.

    2017-12-01

    The purpose of this work is to estimate willingness-to-pay (WTP) for minority (African-American and Hispanic) homeowners in Florida for private and public wildfire risk reduction programs and also to test for differences in response between the two groups. A random parameter logit and latent class models allowed us to determine if there is difference in wildfire mitigation program preferences, whether WTP is higher for public or private actions for wildfire risk reduction, and whether households with personal experience and who perceive that they live in higher-risk areas have significantly higher WTP. We also compare FL minority homeowners' WTP values with Florida original homeowners' estimates. Results suggest that FL minority homeowners are willing to invest in public programs, with African-Americans WTP values at a higher rate than Hispanics. In addition, the highest priority for cost sharing funds would go to low-income homeowners, especially to cost-share private actions on their own land. These results may help fire managers optimize allocation of scarce cost-sharing funds for public versus private actions.

  14. NASA Propulsion Concept Studies and Risk Reduction Activities for Resource Prospector Lander

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trinh, Huu P.; Williams, Hunter; Burnside, Chris

    2015-01-01

    The trade study has led to the selection of propulsion concept with the lowest cost and net lowest risk -Government-owned, flight qualified components -Meet mission requirements although the configuration is not optimized. Risk reduction activities have provided an opportunity -Implement design improvements while development with the early-test approach. -Gain knowledge on the operation and identify operation limit -Data to anchor analytical models for future flight designs; The propulsion system cold flow tests series have provided valuable data for future design. -The pressure surge from the system priming and waterhammer within component operation limits. -Enable to optimize the ullage volume to reduce the propellant tank mass; RS-34 hot fire tests have successfully demonstrated of using the engines for the RP mission -No degradation of performance due to extended storage life of the hardware. -Enable to operate the engine for RP flight mission scenarios, outside of the qualification regime. -Provide extended data for the thermal and GNC designs. Significant progress has been made on NASA propulsion concept design and risk reductions for Resource Prospector lander.

  15. Semantic Mediation Tool for Risk Reduction, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This project focuses on providing an infrastructure to aid the building of ontologies from existing NASA applications, in a manner that leads to long-term risk...

  16. ISM Approach to Model Offshore Outsourcing Risks

    OpenAIRE

    Kumar, Sunand; Sharma, Rajiv Kumar; Chauhan, Prashant

    2014-01-01

    [EN] In an effort to achieve a competitive advantage via cost reductions and improved market responsiveness, organizations are increasingly employing offshore outsourcing as a major component of their supply chain strategies. But as evident from literature number of risks such as Political risk, Risk due to cultural differences, Compliance and regulatory risk, Opportunistic risk and Organization structural risk, which adversely affect the performance of offshore outsourcing in a supply chain ...

  17. Review of the severe accident risk reduction program (SARRP) containment event trees

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1986-05-01

    A part of the Severe Accident Risk Reduction Program, researchers at Sandia National Laboratories have constructed a group of containment event trees to be used in the analysis of key accident sequences for light water reactors (LWR) during postulated severe accidents. The ultimate goal of the program is to provide to the NRC staff a current assessment of the risk from severe reactor accidents for a group of five light water reactors. This review specifically focuses on the development and construction of the containment event trees and the results for containment failure probability, modes and timing. The report first gives the background on the program, the review criteria, and a summary of the observations, findings and recommendations. secondly, the individual reviews of each committee member on the event trees is presented. Finally, a review is provided on the computer model used to construct and evaluate the event trees

  18. Risk reduction of international mining projects by means of investor consortia and diversification of external financing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirchner, C.

    1982-01-01

    Investors and creditors of international mining projects bear specific risks which may be reduced by means of forming investor and financing consortia. Risk is defined for each actor separately. Project risk and investor risk respectively credit risk are useful categories in order to analyze risk reduction. In each case formation of consortia has a positive influence on the economic viability of the project, and thus reduces the project risk. Furthermore, formation of consortia leads to better compliance of the host country of the mining project with the project and financing agreements. Thus, investor and credit risk may be reduced. (orig.) [de

  19. Willingness-to-accept reductions in HIV risks: conditional economic incentives in Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galárraga, Omar; Sosa-Rubí, Sandra G.; Infante, César; Gertler, Paul J.; Bertozzi, Stefano M.

    2014-01-01

    The objective of this study was to measure willingness-to-accept (WTA) reductions in risks for HIV and other sexually transmitted infections (STI) using conditional economic incentives (CEI) among men who have sex with men (MSM), including male sex workers (MSW) in Mexico City. A survey experiment was conducted with 1,745 MSM and MSW (18-25 years of age) who received incentive offers to decide first whether to accept monthly prevention talks and STI testing; and then a second set of offers to accept to stay free of STIs (verified by quarterly biological testing). The survey used random-starting-point and iterative offers. WTA was estimated with a maximum likelihood double-bounded dichotomous choice model. The average acceptance probabilities were: 73.9% for the monthly model, and 80.4% for the quarterly model. The incentive-elasticity of participation in the monthly model was 0.222, and it was 0.515 in the quarterly model. For a combination program with monthly prevention talks, and staying free of curable STI, the implied WTA was USD$288 per person per year, but it was lower for MSW: USD$156 per person per year. Thus, some of the populations at highest risk of HIV infection (MSM & MSW) seem well disposed to participate in a CEI program for HIV and STI prevention in Mexico. The average willingness-to-accept estimate is within the range of feasible allocations for prevention in the local context. Given the potential impact, Mexico, a leader in conditional cash transfers for human development and poverty reduction, could extend that successful model for targeted HIV/STI prevention. PMID:23377757

  20. Fuzzy audit risk modeling algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zohreh Hajihaa

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Fuzzy logic has created suitable mathematics for making decisions in uncertain environments including professional judgments. One of the situations is to assess auditee risks. During recent years, risk based audit (RBA has been regarded as one of the main tools to fight against fraud. The main issue in RBA is to determine the overall audit risk an auditor accepts, which impact the efficiency of an audit. The primary objective of this research is to redesign the audit risk model (ARM proposed by auditing standards. The proposed model of this paper uses fuzzy inference systems (FIS based on the judgments of audit experts. The implementation of proposed fuzzy technique uses triangular fuzzy numbers to express the inputs and Mamdani method along with center of gravity are incorporated for defuzzification. The proposed model uses three FISs for audit, inherent and control risks, and there are five levels of linguistic variables for outputs. FISs include 25, 25 and 81 rules of if-then respectively and officials of Iranian audit experts confirm all the rules.

  1. Model reduction of nonlinear systems subject to input disturbances

    KAUST Repository

    Ndoye, Ibrahima

    2017-07-10

    The method of convex optimization is used as a tool for model reduction of a class of nonlinear systems in the presence of disturbances. It is shown that under some conditions the nonlinear disturbed system can be approximated by a reduced order nonlinear system with similar disturbance-output properties to the original plant. The proposed model reduction strategy preserves the nonlinearity and the input disturbance nature of the model. It guarantees a sufficiently small error between the outputs of the original and the reduced-order systems, and also maintains the properties of input-to-state stability. The matrices of the reduced order system are given in terms of a set of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs). The paper concludes with a demonstration of the proposed approach on model reduction of a nonlinear electronic circuit with additive disturbances.

  2. Interdisciplinary approach for disaster risk reduction in Valtellina Valley, northern Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, Carolina; Blahut, Jan; Luna, Byron Quan; Poretti, Ilaria; Camera, Corrado; de Amicis, Mattia; Sterlacchini, Simone

    2010-05-01

    Inside the framework of the European research network Mountain Risks, an interdisciplinary research group has been working in the Consortium of Mountain Municipalities of Valtellina di Tirano (northern Italy). This area has been continuously affected by several mountain hazards such as landslides, debris flows and floods that directly affect the population, and in some cases caused several deaths and million euros of losses. An aim of the interdisciplinary work in this study area, is to integrate different scientific products of the research group, in the areas of risk assessment, management and governance, in order to generate, among others, risk reduction tools addressed to general public and stakeholders. Two types of phenomena have been particularly investigated: debris flows and floods. The scientific products range from modeling to mapping of hazard and risk, emergency planning based on real time decision support systems, surveying for the evaluation of risk perception and preparedness, among others. Outputs from medium scale hazard and risk modeling could be used for decision makers and spatial planners as well as civil protection authorities to have a general overview of the area and indentify hot spots for further detailed analysis. Subsequently, local scale analysis is necessary to define possible events and risk scenarios for emergency planning. As for the modeling of past events and new scenarios of debris flows, physical outputs were used as inputs into physical vulnerability assessment and quantitative risk analysis within dynamic runout models. On a pilot zone, the physical damage was quantified for each affected structure within the context of physical vulnerability and different empirical vulnerability curves were obtained. Prospective economic direct losses were estimated. For floods hazard assessment, different approaches and models are being tested, in order to produce flood maps for various return periods, and related to registered rainfalls

  3. PV O&M Cost Model and Cost Reduction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Walker, Andy

    2017-03-15

    This is a presentation on PV O&M cost model and cost reduction for the annual Photovoltaic Reliability Workshop (2017), covering estimating PV O&M costs, polynomial expansion, and implementation of Net Present Value (NPV) and reserve account in cost models.

  4. Data-Driven Model Order Reduction for Bayesian Inverse Problems

    KAUST Repository

    Cui, Tiangang

    2014-01-06

    One of the major challenges in using MCMC for the solution of inverse problems is the repeated evaluation of computationally expensive numerical models. We develop a data-driven projection- based model order reduction technique to reduce the computational cost of numerical PDE evaluations in this context.

  5. Model reduction of port-Hamiltonian systems as structured systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Polyuga, R.V.; Schaft, van der A.J.

    2010-01-01

    The goal of this work is to demonstrate that a specific projection-based model reduction method, which provides an H2 error bound, turns out to be applicable to port-Hamiltonian systems, preserving the port-Hamiltonian structure for the reduced order model, and, as a consequence, passivity.

  6. Partial-Order Reduction for GPU Model Checking

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Neele, T.; Wijs, A.; Bosnacki, D.; van de Pol, Jan Cornelis; Artho, C; Legay, A.; Peled, D.

    2016-01-01

    Model checking using GPUs has seen increased popularity over the last years. Because GPUs have a limited amount of memory, only small to medium-sized systems can be verified. For on-the-fly explicit-state model checking, we improve memory efficiency by applying partial-order reduction. We propose

  7. Partial-order reduction for GPU model checking

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Neele, T.S.; Wijs, A.J.; Bošnački, D.; van de Pol, J.C.

    2016-01-01

    Model checking using GPUs has seen increased popularity over the last years. Because GPUs have a limited amount of memory, only small to medium-sized systems can be verified. For on-the-fly explicitstate model checking, we improve memory efficiency by applying partialorder reduction. We propose

  8. Harnessing farmers' knowledge and perceptions for health-risk reduction in wastewater-irrigated agriculture

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Keraita, Bernard; Drechsel, Pay; Seidu, Razak

    2009-01-01

    This chapter addresses the importance of understanding farmers' knowledge and perceptions on health-risk and risk-reduction measures for the development of mutually acceptable risk-management strategies. Drawing on studies from different countries, the chapter shows that it is not realistic to ex...

  9. Harnessing Farmers' knowledge and perceptions for health-risk reduction in wastewater-irrigated agriculture

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Keraita, Bernhard; Drechsel, Pay; Seidu, Razak

    2010-01-01

    This chapter addresses the importance of understanding farmers’ knowledge and perceptions on health-risk and risk-reduction measures for the development of mutually acceptable risk-management strategies. Drawing on studies from different countries, the chapter shows that it is not realistic to ex...

  10. Treatment options for hypertriglyceridemia: from risk reduction to pancreatitis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berglund, Lars; Brunzell, John D.; Goldberg, Anne C.; Goldberg, Ira J.; Stalenhoef, Anton

    2013-01-01

    While there has been considerable focus on the role and treatment of LDL cholesterol levels, a definitive role of triglycerides in the management of cardiovascular disease has been uncertain. Notably, with increasing triglyceride levels, there is a parallel increase in cholesterol levels carried by triglyceride-rich lipoproteins, which has prompted interest in the use of non-HDL cholesterol levels as a tool guiding interventions. Recent studies have provided evidence for an independent role of triglyceride levels as a cardiovascular risk factor, and recently, an Endocrine Society guideline was published for treatment of hypertriglyceridemia. In contrast to the relative uncertainty regarding triglycerides and cardiovascular disease, a role of very high triglyceride levels as a risk factor for pancreatitis has been well known. The present paper summarizes the underlying evidence for a risk role for triglyceride levels in cardiovascular disease and pancreatitis, current treatment recommendations and areas of future research. PMID:24840268

  11. Evaluating the risk-reduction benefits of wind energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brower, M.C.; Bell, K.; Spinney, P. [and others

    1997-05-01

    The question of uncertainty and risk in electric utility resource planning has received considerable attention in recent years. During the 1980s, many utilities suffered financial losses because of unexpectedly high plant construction costs and low growth in electricity demand. In addition, the introduction of competition to the electric industry is creating new risks for power companies. No longer will utilities be able to count on regulatory protections and a base of captive consumers to provide a stable market and adequate return on their investments. Alternative risk management strategies will have to be considered instead. One approach to managing risk is for a utility company to invest in diverse power sources such as wind power plants. Since wind plants consume no fuel, can be built in relatively small increments with short construction lead times, and generate no pollutants, it is often said that they offer significant protection from risks associated with conventional fossil-fuel power plants. So far there have been few efforts to quantify these benefits, however. The study compares the costs and risks of two competing resource options, a gas-fired combined cycle plant and a wind plant, both utility-owned, through decision analysis. The case study utility is Texas Utilities Electric, a very large investor-owned company serving an area with substantial, high-quality wind resources. The authors chose a specific moment in the future - the year 2003 - when the utility currently plans to build a large fossil-fueled power plant, and examined the implications for the utility`s expected revenues, costs, and profits if a wind plant were to be built instead.

  12. Preferences for breast cancer risk reduction among BRCA1/BRCA2 mutation carriers: a discrete-choice experiment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liede, Alexander; Mansfield, Carol A; Metcalfe, Kelly A; Price, Melanie A; Snyder, Carrie; Lynch, Henry T; Friedman, Sue; Amelio, Justyna; Posner, Joshua; Narod, Steven A; Lindeman, Geoffrey J; Evans, D Gareth

    2017-09-01

    Unaffected women who carry BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutations face difficult choices about reducing their breast cancer risk. Understanding their treatment preferences could help us improve patient counseling and inform drug trials. The objective was to explore preferences for various risk-reducing options among women with germline BRCA1/2 mutations using a discrete-choice experiment survey and to compare expressed preferences with actual behaviors. A discrete-choice experiment survey was designed wherein women choose between hypothetical treatments to reduce breast cancer risk. The hypothetical treatments were characterized by the extent of breast cancer risk reduction, treatment duration, impact on fertility, hormone levels, risk of uterine cancer, and ease and mode of administration. Data were analyzed using a random-parameters logit model. Women were also asked to express their preference between surgical and chemoprevention options and to report on their actual risk-reduction actions. Women aged 25-55 years with germline BRCA1/2 mutations who were unaffected with breast or ovarian cancer were recruited through research registries at five clinics and a patient advocacy group. Between January 2015 and March 2016, 622 women completed the survey. Breast cancer risk reduction was the most important consideration expressed, followed by maintaining fertility. Among the subset of women who wished to have children in future, the ability to maintain fertility was the most important factor, followed by the extent of risk reduction. Many more women said they would take a chemoprevention drug than had actually taken chemoprevention. Women with BRCA1/2 mutations indicated strong preferences for breast cancer risk reduction and maintaining fertility. The expressed desire to have a safe chemoprevention drug available to them was not met by current chemoprevention options.

  13. Biodiesel from Specified Risk Material Tallow: An Appraisal of TSE Risks and their Reduction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baribeau, A.; Bradley, R.; Brown, P.; Goodwin, J.; Kihm, U.; Lotero, E.; O' Connor, D.; Schuppers, M.; Taylor, D.

    2007-03-15

    potential to inactivate TSE infectivity, for example, exposure to strong acids or bases and, depending on the process, exposure to high temperature or purification by chromatography or precipitation. However, the two-phase aqueouslipidic nature of transesterification introduces an element of uncertainty about the effect of these procedures on infectivity. Biodiesel use. Combustion temperatures, even at millisecond exposures, might partially inactivate contaminated biodiesel. But experimental data have so far been limited to saline tissue suspensions of infected tissues and several minute exposure times in static rather than dynamic combustion processes. A substantial body of epidemiological and laboratory evidence indicates that TSE is not transmitted by aerosol inhalation. Overall conclusion. Biodiesel produced from animals infected with TSE poses a negligible risk to animal and public health. This conclusion extends even to the use of SRM as a source of tallow, based on experimental evidence showing that rendered tallow from infected animal tissues does not transmit disease to inoculated susceptible animals. Although infectivity reductions during biodiesel manufacturing steps should therefore be redundant, any such reduction would still be desirable as an added measure of safety. At present, the potential for infectivity reduction through biodiesel manufacturing and combustion can only be estimated from analogy to methods known to inactivate infectivity in saline suspensions of infected tissue. Studies of the actual biodiesel process, using experimentally contaminated input tallow, are recommended as the only means by which a scientifically-based conclusion can be made about the capacity of these processes to reduce or eliminate TSE infectivity.

  14. Biodiesel from Specified Risk Material Tallow: An Appraisal of TSE Risks and their Reduction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baribeau, A; Bradley, R; Brown, P; Goodwin, J; Kihm, U; Lotero, E; O' Connor, D; Schuppers, M; Taylor, D

    2007-03-15

    inactivate TSE infectivity, for example, exposure to strong acids or bases and, depending on the process, exposure to high temperature or purification by chromatography or precipitation. However, the two-phase aqueouslipidic nature of transesterification introduces an element of uncertainty about the effect of these procedures on infectivity. Biodiesel use. Combustion temperatures, even at millisecond exposures, might partially inactivate contaminated biodiesel. But experimental data have so far been limited to saline tissue suspensions of infected tissues and several minute exposure times in static rather than dynamic combustion processes. A substantial body of epidemiological and laboratory evidence indicates that TSE is not transmitted by aerosol inhalation. Overall conclusion. Biodiesel produced from animals infected with TSE poses a negligible risk to animal and public health. This conclusion extends even to the use of SRM as a source of tallow, based on experimental evidence showing that rendered tallow from infected animal tissues does not transmit disease to inoculated susceptible animals. Although infectivity reductions during biodiesel manufacturing steps should therefore be redundant, any such reduction would still be desirable as an added measure of safety. At present, the potential for infectivity reduction through biodiesel manufacturing and combustion can only be estimated from analogy to methods known to inactivate infectivity in saline suspensions of infected tissue. Studies of the actual biodiesel process, using experimentally contaminated input tallow, are recommended as the only means by which a scientifically-based conclusion can be made about the capacity of these processes to reduce or eliminate TSE infectivity.

  15. NGNP Risk Management Database: A Model for Managing Risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Collins, John

    2009-01-01

    To facilitate the implementation of the Risk Management Plan, the Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) Project has developed and employed an analytical software tool called the NGNP Risk Management System (RMS). A relational database developed in Microsoft(reg s ign) Access, the RMS provides conventional database utility including data maintenance, archiving, configuration control, and query ability. Additionally, the tool's design provides a number of unique capabilities specifically designed to facilitate the development and execution of activities outlined in the Risk Management Plan. Specifically, the RMS provides the capability to establish the risk baseline, document and analyze the risk reduction plan, track the current risk reduction status, organize risks by reference configuration system, subsystem, and component (SSC) and Area, and increase the level of NGNP decision making.

  16. NGNP Risk Management Database: A Model for Managing Risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    John Collins

    2009-09-01

    To facilitate the implementation of the Risk Management Plan, the Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) Project has developed and employed an analytical software tool called the NGNP Risk Management System (RMS). A relational database developed in Microsoft® Access, the RMS provides conventional database utility including data maintenance, archiving, configuration control, and query ability. Additionally, the tool’s design provides a number of unique capabilities specifically designed to facilitate the development and execution of activities outlined in the Risk Management Plan. Specifically, the RMS provides the capability to establish the risk baseline, document and analyze the risk reduction plan, track the current risk reduction status, organize risks by reference configuration system, subsystem, and component (SSC) and Area, and increase the level of NGNP decision making.

  17. Osteoporosis: Implications for Risk Reduction in the College Setting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leslie, Maryann; St. Pierre, Richard W.

    1999-01-01

    Examines risk factors for osteoporosis that are especially relevant to the college health setting, focusing on bone development, inadequate calcium and vitamin D intake, cigarette smoking and alcohol use, steroid use and high protein diets, and physical inactivity and excessive exercise. Also presents intervention strategies for college health…

  18. 76 FR 41278 - Cargo Security Risk Reduction; Public Listening Sessions

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-07-13

    ....mil/hq/cg5/cg544/cdc.asp or the Federal Docket Management System at http://www.Regulations.gov . For... important for the Coast Guard, in concert with stakeholders, to implement a holistic strategy to mitigate... risk management and shared responsibility between public and private sector stakeholders, across the...

  19. Risk Reduction with a Fuzzy Expert Exploration Tool

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Weiss, William W.; Broadhead, Ron; Sung, Andrew

    2000-10-24

    This project developed an Artificial Intelligence system that drew up on a wide variety of information in providing realistic estimates of risk. ''Fuzzy logic,'' a system of integrating large amounts of inexact, incomplete information with modern computational methods derived usable conclusions, were demonstrated as a cost-effective computational technology in many industrial applications.

  20. Reduced order methods for modeling and computational reduction

    CERN Document Server

    Rozza, Gianluigi

    2014-01-01

    This monograph addresses the state of the art of reduced order methods for modeling and computational reduction of complex parametrized systems, governed by ordinary and/or partial differential equations, with a special emphasis on real time computing techniques and applications in computational mechanics, bioengineering and computer graphics.  Several topics are covered, including: design, optimization, and control theory in real-time with applications in engineering; data assimilation, geometry registration, and parameter estimation with special attention to real-time computing in biomedical engineering and computational physics; real-time visualization of physics-based simulations in computer science; the treatment of high-dimensional problems in state space, physical space, or parameter space; the interactions between different model reduction and dimensionality reduction approaches; the development of general error estimation frameworks which take into account both model and discretization effects. This...

  1. Model of MSD Risk Assessment at Workplace

    OpenAIRE

    K. Sekulová; M. Šimon

    2015-01-01

    This article focuses on upper-extremity musculoskeletal disorders risk assessment model at workplace. In this model are used risk factors that are responsible for musculoskeletal system damage. Based on statistic calculations the model is able to define what risk of MSD threatens workers who are under risk factors. The model is also able to say how MSD risk would decrease if these risk factors are eliminated.

  2. [Smoking fewer cigarettes per day may determine a significant risk reduction in developing smoking attributable diseases? Is there a risk reduction for e-cigarette users?].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pieri, Luca; Chellini, Elisabetta; Gorini, Giuseppe

    2014-01-01

    Among Italian smokers--about 10 millions in 2013--about 600,000 began using electronic cigarettes (e-cigs) in last years. About 10% of e-cig users quitted smoking tobacco, whereas the 90% was dual users. Among them, about three out of four decreased the number of cigarettes smoked per day (cig/day), but did not quit. How many fewer cigarettes a smoker has to smoke to obtain significant health benefits? Is there a threshold? In order to observe a significant 27% reduction in the risk of developing lung cancer, a smoker must reduce the number of cig/day by at least 50%, while for the other smoking-related diseases (acute myocardial infarction - AMI, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases), halving the number of cig/day did not drive to a significant risk reduction. Even smoking 5 cig/day increases the risk of AMI, whereas it significantly lowers the risk of lung cancer. Obviously, quitting smoking is the best choice to highly reduce risks for all smoking-related diseases. Therefore, in order to achieve significant risk reductions, e-cig users should quit smoking as first choice, or, if they feel it is impossible to them, reduce the consumption of traditional cigarettes to less than 5 cig/day.

  3. The social value of mortality risk reduction: VSL versus the social welfare function approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adler, Matthew D; Hammitt, James K; Treich, Nicolas

    2014-05-01

    We examine how different welfarist frameworks evaluate the social value of mortality risk reduction. These frameworks include classical, distributively unweighted cost-benefit analysis--i.e., the "value per statistical life" (VSL) approach-and various social welfare functions (SWFs). The SWFs are either utilitarian or prioritarian, applied to policy choice under risk in either an "ex post" or "ex ante" manner. We examine the conditions on individual utility and on the SWF under which these frameworks display sensitivity to wealth and to baseline risk. Moreover, we discuss whether these frameworks satisfy related properties that have received some attention in the literature, namely equal value of risk reduction, preference for risk equity, and catastrophe aversion. We show that the particular manner in which VSL ranks risk-reduction measures is not necessarily shared by other welfarist frameworks. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Use of Hydraulic Model for Water Loss Reduction

    OpenAIRE

    Mindaugas Rimeika; Anželika Jurkienė

    2016-01-01

    Hydraulic modeling is the modern way to apply world water engineering experience in every day practice. Hydraulic model is an effective tool in order to perform analysis of water supply system, optimization of its operation, assessment of system efficiency potential, evaluation of water network development, fire flow capabilities, energy saving opportunities and water loss reduction and ect. Hydraulic model shall include all possible engineering elements and devices allocated in a real water ...

  5. Evolution of surgical techniques for a progressive risk reduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amato, Bruno; Santoro, Mario; Izzo, Raffaele; Servillo, Giuseppe; Compagna, Rita; Di Domenico, Lorenza; Di Nardo, Veronica; Giugliano, Giuseppe

    2017-07-18

    Advanced age is a strong predictor of high perioperative mortality in surgical patients and patients aged 75 years and older have an elevated surgical risk, much higher than that of younger patients. Progressive advances in surgical techniques now make it possible to treat high-risk surgical patients with minimally invasive procedures. Endovascular techniques have revolutionized the treatment of several vascular diseases, in particular carotid stenosis, aortic pathologies, and severely incapacitating intermittent claudication or critical limb ischemia. The main advantages of the endovascular approach are the low complication rate, high rate of technical success and a good clinical outcome. Biliary stenting has improved the clinical status of severely ill patients with bile duct stricture before major surgery, and represents a good palliative therapy in the case of malignant biliary obstruction.

  6. Impact of the Prevention Plan on Employee Health Risk Reduction

    OpenAIRE

    Loeppke, Ronald; Edington, Dee W.; Bég, Sami

    2010-01-01

    This study evaluated the impact of The Prevention Plan™ on employee health risks after 1 year of integrated primary prevention (wellness and health promotion) and secondary prevention (biometric and lab screening as well as early detection) interventions. The Prevention Plan is an innovative prevention benefit that provides members with the high-tech/high-touch support and encouragement they need to adopt healthy behaviors. Support services include 24/7 nurse hotlines, one-on-one health coach...

  7. Correlates of HIV Risk Reduction Self-Efficacy among Youth in South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julia Louw

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Even though a decline in HIV prevalence has been reported among South African youth 15–24 from 10.3% in 2005 to 8.6% in 2008, the prevalence remains disproportionately high for females overall in comparison to males. This study examines factors associated by HIV risk reduction self-efficacy of South African youth as part of an evaluation of the impact of loveLife, a youth focused HIV prevention programme. A cross-sectional population-based household survey was conducted with persons of ages 18 to 24 years in four selected provinces in South Africa. Among female respondents (, factors associated with high self-efficacy in the adjusted model were having a low HIV risk perception, HIV/AIDS stigma, ever using drugs, and having life goals. Male respondents ( with high self-efficacy were more likely to have been tested for HIV, have concurrent sexual partners, have had a transactional sex partner in lifetime, a low HIV risk perception, difficulty in having condoms, agreed with coercive sex, high relationship control, and had loveLife face-to-face programme participation. The factors identified with high self-efficacy and HIV-sexual risk behaviour may be considered to strengthen youth HIV prevention programmes in South Africa.

  8. A Dutch Perspective on Coastal Louisiana Flood Risk Reduction and Landscape Stabilization

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Dijkman, Jos

    2007-01-01

    .... The project was aimed at identifying options for the long-term reduction of flood risks and landscape stabilization in Planning Areas I and 2 in Louisiana, in the framework of the Louisiana Coastal...

  9. The Effect of Risk Reduction Intervention on Earthquake Disaster Preparedness of the Elderly People

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kian Nourozi

    2016-01-01

    Conclusion: Preparedness programs for disaster risk reduction has a positive effect on the elders’ preparedness. Thus, similar multimodal preparedness programs should be used more frequently for this vulnerable community citizens.

  10. Case Study of Cardiovascular Risk Reduction in the Northwest Region and TRICARE Region 11

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Murphy, Rosemary

    2003-01-01

    ... and TRICARE Lead Agent Region 11. The outcomes management team developed a cardiovascular risk reduction scorecard and metrics in which to evaluate the care being given to the TRICARE prime enrollees with a cardiovascular disease diagnosis...

  11. Farmers prone to drought risk : why some farmers undertake farm-level risk-reduction measures while others not?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gidey, T.G.; van der Veen, A.

    2015-01-01

    This research investigates farmers’ cognitive perceptions of risk and the behavioral intentions to undertake farm-level risk-reduction measures. It has been observed that people who are susceptible to natural hazards often fail to act, or do very little, to protect their assets or lives. To answer

  12. Profile of elementary school science teacher instruction in disaster risk reduction: case study of volcano disaster

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pujianto; Prabowo; Wasis

    2018-04-01

    This study examined the profile of science' teacher instruction in Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR), as a feature of instructional quality, on students’ learning experiences. A qualitative study was done to observe teacher activities in teaching of disaster preparedness. Science teacher and 14 students at grade 4 of SDN (elementary school) Kiyaran 2 are involved as the subject of this study. Teacher’ instruction was coded with regard to preparation, action, and evaluation using observation sheets and documentation. Data analysis results showed a positive significant effect of the readiness during preparation on learning process of disaster risk reduction and an indirect effect of teacher’ action on students’ learning experiences. There is a lack of teaching materials about volcano disaster in the elementary school. Teacher found difficulties on evaluation of student achievement in disaster preparedness. These findings highlight the importance of DRR in uphold science teachers’ education. Items of teachers’ skill in preparing of DRR may be used to offer model of concrete instruction situation during university workshop for maintain teacher education.

  13. Moderation and Mediation of an Efficacious Sexual Risk-Reduction Intervention for South African Adolescents

    Science.gov (United States)

    O’Leary, Ann; Jemmott, John B.; Jemmott, Loretta Sweet; Bellamy, Scarlett; Ngwane, Zolani; Icard, Larry

    2015-01-01

    Background “Let Us Protect Our Future” is a sexual risk-reduction intervention for sixth-grade adolescents in South Africa. Tested in a cluster-randomized controlled trial, the intervention significantly reduced self-reported intercourse and unprotected intercourse during a 12-month follow-up period. Purpose The present analyses were conducted to identify moderators of the intervention’s efficacy as well as which theory-based variables mediated the intervention’s effects. Methods: Intervention efficacy over the 3-, 6-, and 12-month follow-ups was tested using generalized estimating equation (GEE) models. Results Living with their father in the home, parental strictness, and religiosity moderated the efficacy of the intervention in reducing unprotected intercourse. Self-efficacy to avoid risky situations and expected parental disapproval of their having intercourse, derived from Social Cognitive Theory, significantly mediated the intervention’s effect on abstinence. Conclusions This is the first study to demonstrate that Social Cognitive variables mediate the efficacy of a sexual risk-reduction intervention among South African adolescents. PMID:22618963

  14. Low-cost risk reduction strategy for small workplaces: how can we spread good practices?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kogi, K

    2006-01-01

    Recent advances in health risk reduction approaches are examined based on inter-country networking experiences. A noteworthy progress is the wider application of low-cost improvements to risk reduction particularly in small enterprises and agriculture in both industrially developing and developed countries. This is helped by the readiness of managers and workers to implement these improvements despite many constraints. Typical improvements include mobile racks, simple workstation changes, screening hazards, better welfare facilities and teamwork arrangements. In view of the complex circumstances of work-related health risks, it is important to know whether a low-cost strategy can advance risk reduction practices effectively and what support measures are necessary. It is confirmed that the strategy can overcome related constraints through its advantages. Main advantages lie in (a) the facilitation of improved practices in multiple technical areas, (b) the strengthening of realistic stepwise risk reduction, and (c) the enhanced multiplier effects through training of local trainers. Action-oriented risk assessment tools, such as action checklists and low-cost improvement guides, can encourage risk-reducing measures adjusted to each local situation. It is suggested to spread the low-cost risk reduction strategy for improving small workplaces in diversified settings with the support of these locally tailored tools.

  15. Fast Multiscale Reservoir Simulations using POD-DEIM Model Reduction

    KAUST Repository

    Ghasemi, Mohammadreza

    2015-02-23

    In this paper, we present a global-local model reduction for fast multiscale reservoir simulations in highly heterogeneous porous media with applications to optimization and history matching. Our proposed approach identifies a low dimensional structure of the solution space. We introduce an auxiliary variable (the velocity field) in our model reduction that allows achieving a high degree of model reduction. The latter is due to the fact that the velocity field is conservative for any low-order reduced model in our framework. Because a typical global model reduction based on POD is a Galerkin finite element method, and thus it can not guarantee local mass conservation. This can be observed in numerical simulations that use finite volume based approaches. Discrete Empirical Interpolation Method (DEIM) is used to approximate the nonlinear functions of fine-grid functions in Newton iterations. This approach allows achieving the computational cost that is independent of the fine grid dimension. POD snapshots are inexpensively computed using local model reduction techniques based on Generalized Multiscale Finite Element Method (GMsFEM) which provides (1) a hierarchical approximation of snapshot vectors (2) adaptive computations by using coarse grids (3) inexpensive global POD operations in a small dimensional spaces on a coarse grid. By balancing the errors of the global and local reduced-order models, our new methodology can provide an error bound in simulations. Our numerical results, utilizing a two-phase immiscible flow, show a substantial speed-up and we compare our results to the standard POD-DEIM in finite volume setup.

  16. Sustainable Disaster Risk Reduction in Nigeria: Lessons for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Nekky Umera

    out years of urban development by destroying infrastructure and housing and by .... productive activities, degree of organization, warning systems, political and ..... regard to note that current global climate models indicate that the sea level will ...

  17. State vector reduction - 2: Elements of physical reality, nonlocality and stochasticity in relativistic dynamical reduction models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghirardi, G.C.; Pearle, P.

    1991-02-01

    The problem of getting a relativistic generalization of the CSL dynamical reduction model, which has been presented in part I, is discussed. In so doing we have the opportunity to introduce the idea of a stochastically invariant theory. The theoretical model we present, that satisfies this kind of invariance requirement, offers us the possibility to reconsider, from a new point of view, some conceptually relevant issues such as nonlocality, the legitimacy of attributing elements of physical reality to physical systems and the problem of establishing causal relations between physical events. (author). Refs, 3 figs

  18. Risk reduction strategies in laparoscopic donor nephrectomy: A comparative study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T Manohar

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: As the advancements, modifications and standardization of laparoscopy are taking place, there is a need for the reduction in morbidity associated with laparoscopic live donor nephrectomy. This study was performed to determine and reconfirm the advantages of laparoscopic donor nephrectomy over its open counterpart. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Two hundred open live donor nephrectomy (ODN cases were compared to 264 cases of laparoscopic live donor nephrectomy (LDN. Pretransplant functional and radiological evaluation was done routinely by excretory urogram and renal arteriography. In case of vascular variations, CT angiography was preferred. Open cases were done by conventional method and laparoscopic group underwent certain technical and surgical modifications, including meticulous planning for the port placement. Operative time, analgesia requirement, start of the orals, hospital stay, blood loss, late allograft function, incidence of rejection, complications and technical problems were analyzed. RESULTS: Operative time was 135.8 ± 43 and 165 ± 44.4 min ( P < 0.0001, requirement of analgesia was 60.5 ± 40 and 320 ± 120 mg ( P < 0.0001, hospital stay was 4 ± 0.04 and 5.7 ± 2.03 days ( P < 0.0001, warm ischemia time was 6.1 ± 2.0 and 4.1 ± 0.80 min ( P < 0.0001 and time taken for the serum creatinine to stabilize in the recipient was 4.1 ± 1.6 and 4.32 ± 1.40 days ( P =0.06 for LDN and ODN groups respectively. There was a significant reduction in the blood loss in LDN group ( P =0.0005. Overall complications were 6.81 and 14.5% and ureteric injury was seen in 0.37 and 1% in LDN and ODN respectively. CONCLUSION: Laparoscopic live donor nephrectomy can now be performed with low morbidity and mortality to both donors and recipients and is proving to be the preferred operation to open donor nephrectomy. Our continued innovations in technical modifications have made this novel operation successful.

  19. Quantile uncertainty and value-at-risk model risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexander, Carol; Sarabia, José María

    2012-08-01

    This article develops a methodology for quantifying model risk in quantile risk estimates. The application of quantile estimates to risk assessment has become common practice in many disciplines, including hydrology, climate change, statistical process control, insurance and actuarial science, and the uncertainty surrounding these estimates has long been recognized. Our work is particularly important in finance, where quantile estimates (called Value-at-Risk) have been the cornerstone of banking risk management since the mid 1980s. A recent amendment to the Basel II Accord recommends additional market risk capital to cover all sources of "model risk" in the estimation of these quantiles. We provide a novel and elegant framework whereby quantile estimates are adjusted for model risk, relative to a benchmark which represents the state of knowledge of the authority that is responsible for model risk. A simulation experiment in which the degree of model risk is controlled illustrates how to quantify Value-at-Risk model risk and compute the required regulatory capital add-on for banks. An empirical example based on real data shows how the methodology can be put into practice, using only two time series (daily Value-at-Risk and daily profit and loss) from a large bank. We conclude with a discussion of potential applications to nonfinancial risks. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

  20. The effect of risk perception on public preferences and willingness to pay for reductions in the health risks posed by toxic cyanobacterial blooms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunter, Peter D; Hanley, Nick; Czajkowski, Mikołaj; Mearns, Kathryn; Tyler, Andrew N; Carvalho, Laurence; Codd, Geoffrey A

    2012-06-01

    Mass populations of toxin-producing cyanobacteria are an increasingly common occurrence in inland and coastal waters used for recreational purposes. These mass populations pose serious risks to human and animal health and impose potentially significant economic costs on society. In this study, we used contingent valuation (CV) methods to elicit public willingness to pay (WTP) for reductions in the morbidity risks posed by blooms of toxin-producing cyanobacteria in Loch Leven, Scotland. We found that 55% of respondents (68% excluding protest voters) were willing to pay for a reduction in the number of days per year (from 90, to either 45 or 0 days) that cyanobacteria pose a risk to human health at Loch Leven. The mean WTP for a risk reduction was UK£9.99-12.23/household/year estimated using a logistic spike model. In addition, using the spike model and a simultaneous equations model to control for endogeneity bias, we found the respondents' WTP was strongly dependent on socio-demographic characteristics, economic status and usage of the waterbody, but also individual-specific attitudes and perceptions towards health risks. This study demonstrates that anticipated health risk reductions are an important nonmarket benefit of improving water quality in recreational waters and should be accounted for in future cost-benefit analyses such as those being undertaken under the auspices of the European Union's Water Framework Directive, but also that such values depend on subjective perceptions of water-related health risks and general attitudes towards the environment. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Spatiotemporal Modeling of Community Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-03-01

    Ertugay, and Sebnem Duzgun, “Exploratory and Inferential Methods for Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Residential Fire Clustering in Urban Areas,” Fire ...response in communities.”26 In “Exploratory and Inferential Methods for Spatio-temporal Analysis of Residential Fire Clustering in Urban Areas,” Ceyhan...of fire resources spread across the community. Spatiotemporal modeling shows that actualized risk is dynamic and relatively patterned. Though

  2. Risk reduction by filtered venting in PWR large dry-containments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gazzillo, F.; Kastenberg, W.E.

    1984-01-01

    The potential risk reduction associated with a Filtered-Vented Containment System is evaluated. A low-volume venting strategy has been considered and data referring to the Zion power plant, along with the results of the Zion Probabilistic Safety Study, have been used. An estimate of the reduction factor is first made for a single core melt accident sequence whose containment failure mode is late overpressure. The result, interpreted as a reduction factor applicable to the release category associated with containment late overpressure is then used for the estimation of the overall risk reduction factor. In particular, the case of internal and external risk for the Zion power plant are considered. Because the contribution from seismic events dominates the overall risk, the importance of different assumptions for seismic fragility is also assessed. Finally an uncertainty analysis of the risk reduction factor for a single accident sequence is performed. An estimate is also obtained on the level of confidence with which certain required values of risk reduction can be achieved. (orig.)

  3. On-ground casualty risk reduction by structural design for demise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lemmens, Stijn; Funke, Quirin; Krag, Holger

    2015-06-01

    In recent years, awareness concerning the on-ground risk posed by un-controlled re-entering space systems has increased. On average over the past decade, an object with mass above 800 kg re-enters every week from which only a few, e.g. ESA's GOCE in 2013 and NASA's UARS in 2011, appeared prominent in international media. Space agencies and nations have discussed requirements to limit the on-ground risk for future missions. To meet the requirements, the amount of debris falling back on Earth has to be limited in number, mass and size. Design for demise (D4D) refers to all measures taken in the design of a space object to increase the potential for demise of the object and its components during re-entry. SCARAB (Spacecraft Atmospheric Re-entry and Break-Up) is ESA's high-fidelity tool which analyses the thermal and structural effects of atmospheric re-entry on spacecraft with a finite-element approach. For this study, a model of a representative satellite is developed in SCARAB to serve as test-bed for D4D analyses on a structural level. The model is used as starting point for different D4D approaches based on increasing the exposure of the satellite components to the aero-thermal environment, as a way to speed up the demise. Statistical bootstrapping is applied to the resulting on-ground fragment lists in order to compare the different re-entry scenarios and to determine the uncertainties of the results. Moreover, the bootstrap results can be used to analyse the casualty risk estimator from a theoretical point of view. The risk reductions for the analysed D4D techniques are presented with respect to the reference scenario for the modelled representative satellite.

  4. On the problem of model reduction in the gap metric

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mutsaers, M.E.C.; Weiland, S.

    2010-01-01

    This paper deals with the model reduction problem where, for a given linear time-invariant dynamical system of complexity n, a simpler system of complexity r

  5. Waste Reduction Model (WARM) Resources for Small Businesses and Organizations

    Science.gov (United States)

    This page provides a brief overview of how EPA’s Waste Reduction Model (WARM) can be used by small businesses and organizations. The page includes a brief summary of uses of WARM for the audience and links to other resources.

  6. State Space Reduction for Model Checking Agent Programs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S.-S.T.Q. Jongmans (Sung-Shik); K.V. Hindriks; M.B. van Riemsdijk; L. Dennis; O. Boissier; R.H. Bordini (Rafael)

    2012-01-01

    htmlabstractState space reduction techniques have been developed to increase the efficiency of model checking in the context of imperative programming languages. Unfortunately, these techniques cannot straightforwardly be applied to agents: the nature of states in the two programming paradigms

  7. Model reduction in integrated controls-structures design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maghami, Peiman G.

    1993-01-01

    It is the objective of this paper to present a model reduction technique developed for the integrated controls-structures design of flexible structures. Integrated controls-structures design problems are typically posed as nonlinear mathematical programming problems, where the design variables consist of both structural and control parameters. In the solution process, both structural and control design variables are constantly changing; therefore, the dynamic characteristics of the structure are also changing. This presents a problem in obtaining a reduced-order model for active control design and analysis which will be valid for all design points within the design space. In other words, the frequency and number of the significant modes of the structure (modes that should be included) may vary considerably throughout the design process. This is also true as the locations and/or masses of the sensors and actuators change. Moreover, since the number of design evaluations in the integrated design process could easily run into thousands, any feasible order-reduction method should not require model reduction analysis at every design iteration. In this paper a novel and efficient technique for model reduction in the integrated controls-structures design process, which addresses these issues, is presented.

  8. Structure preserving port-Hamiltonian model reduction of electrical circuits

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Polyuga, R.; Schaft, van der A.J.; Benner, P.; Hinze, M.; Maten, ter E.J.W.

    2011-01-01

    This paper discusses model reduction of electrical circuits based on a port-Hamiltonian representation. It is shown that by the use of the Kalman decomposition an uncontrollable and/or unobservable port-Hamiltonian system is reduced to a controllable/observable system that inherits the

  9. Model order reduction for complex high-tech systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lutowska, A.; Hochstenbach, M.E.; Schilders, W.H.A.; Michielsen, B.; Poirier, J.R.

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents a computationally efficient model order reduction (MOR) technique for interconnected systems. This MOR technique preserves block structures and zero blocks and exploits separate MOR approximations for the individual sub-systems in combination with low rank approximations for the

  10. Model reduction of nonlinear systems subject to input disturbances

    KAUST Repository

    Ndoye, Ibrahima; Laleg-Kirati, Taous-Meriem

    2017-01-01

    The method of convex optimization is used as a tool for model reduction of a class of nonlinear systems in the presence of disturbances. It is shown that under some conditions the nonlinear disturbed system can be approximated by a reduced order

  11. The cost-effectiveness and public health benefit of nalmefene added to psychosocial support for the reduction of alcohol consumption in alcohol-dependent patients with high/very high drinking risk levels: a Markov model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laramée, Philippe; Brodtkorb, Thor-Henrik; Rahhali, Nora; Knight, Chris; Barbosa, Carolina; François, Clément; Toumi, Mondher; Daeppen, Jean-Bernard; Rehm, Jürgen

    2014-09-16

    To determine whether nalmefene combined with psychosocial support is cost-effective compared with psychosocial support alone for reducing alcohol consumption in alcohol-dependent patients with high/very high drinking risk levels (DRLs) as defined by the WHO, and to evaluate the public health benefit of reducing harmful alcohol-attributable diseases, injuries and deaths. Decision modelling using Markov chains compared costs and effects over 5 years. The analysis was from the perspective of the National Health Service (NHS) in England and Wales. The model considered the licensed population for nalmefene, specifically adults with both alcohol dependence and high/very high DRLs, who do not require immediate detoxification and who continue to have high/very high DRLs after initial assessment. We modelled treatment effect using data from three clinical trials for nalmefene (ESENSE 1 (NCT00811720), ESENSE 2 (NCT00812461) and SENSE (NCT00811941)). Baseline characteristics of the model population, treatment resource utilisation and utilities were from these trials. We estimated the number of alcohol-attributable events occurring at different levels of alcohol consumption based on published epidemiological risk-relation studies. Health-related costs were from UK sources. We measured incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained and number of alcohol-attributable harmful events avoided. Nalmefene in combination with psychosocial support had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of £5204 per QALY gained, and was therefore cost-effective at the £20,000 per QALY gained decision threshold. Sensitivity analyses showed that the conclusion was robust. Nalmefene plus psychosocial support led to the avoidance of 7179 alcohol-attributable diseases/injuries and 309 deaths per 100,000 patients compared to psychosocial support alone over the course of 5 years. Nalmefene can be seen as a cost-effective treatment for alcohol dependence, with substantial public

  12. The cost-effectiveness and public health benefit of nalmefene added to psychosocial support for the reduction of alcohol consumption in alcohol-dependent patients with high/very high drinking risk levels: a Markov model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laramée, Philippe; Brodtkorb, Thor-Henrik; Rahhali, Nora; Knight, Chris; Barbosa, Carolina; François, Clément; Toumi, Mondher; Daeppen, Jean-Bernard; Rehm, Jürgen

    2014-01-01

    Objectives To determine whether nalmefene combined with psychosocial support is cost-effective compared with psychosocial support alone for reducing alcohol consumption in alcohol-dependent patients with high/very high drinking risk levels (DRLs) as defined by the WHO, and to evaluate the public health benefit of reducing harmful alcohol-attributable diseases, injuries and deaths. Design Decision modelling using Markov chains compared costs and effects over 5 years. Setting The analysis was from the perspective of the National Health Service (NHS) in England and Wales. Participants The model considered the licensed population for nalmefene, specifically adults with both alcohol dependence and high/very high DRLs, who do not require immediate detoxification and who continue to have high/very high DRLs after initial assessment. Data sources We modelled treatment effect using data from three clinical trials for nalmefene (ESENSE 1 (NCT00811720), ESENSE 2 (NCT00812461) and SENSE (NCT00811941)). Baseline characteristics of the model population, treatment resource utilisation and utilities were from these trials. We estimated the number of alcohol-attributable events occurring at different levels of alcohol consumption based on published epidemiological risk-relation studies. Health-related costs were from UK sources. Main outcome measures We measured incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained and number of alcohol-attributable harmful events avoided. Results Nalmefene in combination with psychosocial support had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of £5204 per QALY gained, and was therefore cost-effective at the £20 000 per QALY gained decision threshold. Sensitivity analyses showed that the conclusion was robust. Nalmefene plus psychosocial support led to the avoidance of 7179 alcohol-attributable diseases/injuries and 309 deaths per 100 000 patients compared to psychosocial support alone over the course of 5 years. Conclusions

  13. Consideration on risk reduction of future breeder reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vossebrecker, H.

    1990-09-01

    An overall concept of risk minimization of future sodium-cooled fast breeder reactors is presented in this report. Since shutdown reliability is of vital importance for the breeder safety, a so-called third shutdown level is proposed in addition to the two independent fast shutdown systems. It is basically a group of passive and active measures, which are capable to bring the reactor to safe conditions in all conceivable accident-initiating events and in case of total failure of the two actual shutdown systems. Core disruptions as a result of shutdown failure are therefore beyond the scope of technical imagination. Measures are also foreseen to combat other conceivable causes of core disruption, in particular to achieve residual heat removal with essentially passive systems by making use of the good natural circulation capacity of sodium. On top of that, since absolute safety can never be claimed, damage-limiting containment measures are discussed

  14. A business perspective on environmental risk and cost reduction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roper, U.V.

    1998-01-01

    The ways in which the petrochemical industry can enjoy successful business partnerships with environmental service companies was discussed. The petrochemical industry has traditionally viewed environmental service companies as an inherent cost in the context of risk management, and not in the context of business opportunity. Today, as environmental issues are integrated into business operations, there is a new potential for creating business opportunities in a number of operational areas, among them : (1) energy efficiency, (2) process efficiency, (3) waste minimization, (4) waste recycling, and (5) operational pooling. As environmental service companies became more competitive, they have become more attractive business partners. They are providing more diversified services and are better aligned with core competencies required to exploit business opportunities that are too small for major players in the oil,natural gas and petro-chemical industry. They also offer public recognition and financial upside for industry. Some examples of successful business partnerships along these lines are briefly described

  15. Flooding risk reduction for the ASCO NPP PSA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nos Llorens, V.; Faig Sureda, J.

    1993-01-01

    Developed within the framework of the UTE (INITEC-INYPSA-Empresarios Agrupados), the Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA) of the Asco Nuclear Power Plant has served both as a basic tool in reducing the risk of potential internal flooding at the plant, and as a guideline for studying the optimization and feasibility of necessary plant design modifications and changes to procedures. During execution of the work, and in view of the results, a series of improvements were proposed which gave rise to design modification studies. The paper seeks to describe the effect of these modifications on reducing core damage frequency, it also includes a general description of the methodology used. Finally, it compares the results obtained in the context of similar studies performed in other PSAs. (author)

  16. Ethical questions in landslide management and risk reduction in Norway

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taurisano, A.; Lyche, E.; Thakur, V.; Wiig, T.; Øvrelid, K.; Devoli, G.

    2012-04-01

    The loss of lives caused by landslides in Norway is smaller than in other countries due to the low population density in exposed areas. However, annual economic losses from damage to properties and infrastructures are vast. Yet nationally coordinated efforts to manage and reduce landslide and snow avalanche risk are a recent challenge, having started only in the last decade. Since 2009, this has been a task of the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE) under the Ministry of Petroleum and Energy. Ongoing work includes collection of landslide data, production of susceptibility and hazard maps, planning of mitigation measures along with monitoring and early warning systems, assistance to areal planning, providing expertise in emergencies and disseminating information to the public. These activities are realized in collaboration with the Norwegian Geological Survey (NGU), the Meteorological Institute, the Road and Railway authorities, universities and private consultant companies. As the total need for risk mitigating initiatives is by far larger than the annual budget, priority assessment is crucial. This brings about a number of ethical questions. 1. Susceptibility maps have been produced for the whole country and provide a first indication of areas with potential landslide or snow avalanche hazard, i.e. areas where special attention and expert assessments are needed before development. Areas where no potential hazard is shown can in practice be developed without further studies, which call for relatively conservative susceptibility maps. However, conservative maps are problematic as they too often increase both cost and duration of building projects beyond the reasonable. 2. Areas where hazard maps or risk mitigation initiatives will be funded are chosen by means of cost-benefits analyses which are often uncertain. How to estimate the benefits if the real probability for damage can only be judged on a very subjective level but not really calculated

  17. Structuring Cooperative Nuclear RIsk Reduction Initiatives with China.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brandt, Larry [Stanford Univ., CA (United States); Reinhardt, Jason Christian [Stanford Univ., CA (United States); Hecker, Siegfried [Stanford Univ., CA (United States)

    2017-03-01

    The Stanford Center for International Security and Cooperation engaged several Chinese nuclear organizations in cooperative research that focused on responses to radiological and nuclear terrorism. The objective was to identify joint research initiatives to reduce the global dangers of such threats and to pursue initial technical collaborations in several high priority areas. Initiatives were identified in three primary research areas: 1) detection and interdiction of smuggled nuclear materials; 2) nuclear forensics; and 3) radiological (“dirty bomb”) threats and countermeasures. Initial work emphasized the application of systems and risk analysis tools, which proved effective in structuring the collaborations. The extensive engagements between national security nuclear experts in China and the U.S. during the research strengthened professional relationships between these important communities.

  18. Twisted spin Sutherland models from quantum Hamiltonian reduction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Feher, L; Pusztai, B G

    2008-01-01

    Recent general results on Hamiltonian reductions under polar group actions are applied to study some reductions of the free particle governed by the Laplace-Beltrami operator of a compact, connected, simple Lie group. The reduced systems associated with arbitrary finite-dimensional irreducible representations of the group by using the symmetry induced by twisted conjugations are described in detail. These systems generically yield integrable Sutherland-type many-body models with spin, which are called twisted spin Sutherland models if the underlying twisted conjugations are built on non-trivial Dynkin diagram automorphisms. The spectra of these models can be calculated, in principle, by solving certain Clebsch-Gordan problems, and the result is presented for the models associated with the symmetric tensorial powers of the defining representation of SU(N)

  19. Investing in finite-life carbon emissions reduction program under risk and idiosyncratic uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fouilloux, Jessica; Moraux, Franck; Viviani, Jean-Laurent

    2015-01-01

    This paper aims at emphasizing the ability of new frameworks of real option model to highlight key characteristics of industrial Carbon Emissions Reduction Program investment decision. We develop both theoretical arguments and numerical simulations with structural parameters calibrated on real-life data. We find that both radical uncertainty and risk lead to speed-up green investments, compared to the predictions of real option models that are normally used in green investment literature. The conventional “wait and see” attitude, questioned in recent developments of the real option theory, is not validated. In conclusion, our results should foster companies to implement green investments and help governments to define appropriate incentives to encourage green investments. Of particular note, the paper highlights that finance theory is not necessarily an obstacle to green investment decisions. -- Highlights: •We use real option model to identify key features of CERP investment decision. •We determine the optimal carbon price threshold to undertake a CERP. •Investment decision is a non-monotonic function of idiosyncratic uncertainty. •Increasing uncertainty until a moderate level can accelerate investment decision. •Decreasing idiosyncratic risk can accelerate investment decision

  20. One-loop dimensional reduction of the linear σ model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Malbouisson, A.P.C.; Silva-Neto, M.B.; Svaiter, N.F.

    1997-05-01

    We perform the dimensional reduction of the linear σ model at one-loop level. The effective of the reduced theory obtained from the integration over the nonzero Matsubara frequencies is exhibited. Thermal mass and coupling constant renormalization constants are given, as well as the thermal renormalization group which controls the dependence of the counterterms on the temperature. We also recover, for the reduced theory, the vacuum instability of the model for large N. (author)

  1. Coping with Complexity Model Reduction and Data Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Gorban, Alexander N

    2011-01-01

    This volume contains the extended version of selected talks given at the international research workshop 'Coping with Complexity: Model Reduction and Data Analysis', Ambleside, UK, August 31 - September 4, 2009. This book is deliberately broad in scope and aims at promoting new ideas and methodological perspectives. The topics of the chapters range from theoretical analysis of complex and multiscale mathematical models to applications in e.g., fluid dynamics and chemical kinetics.

  2. Analysis of uncertainty in modeling perceived risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Melnyk, R.; Sandquist, G.M.

    2005-01-01

    Expanding on a mathematical model developed for quantifying and assessing perceived risks, the distribution functions, variances, and uncertainties associated with estimating the model parameters are quantified. The analytical model permits the identification and assignment of any number of quantifiable risk perception factors that can be incorporated within standard risk methodology. Those risk perception factors associated with major technical issues are modeled using lognormal probability density functions to span the potentially large uncertainty variations associated with these risk perceptions. The model quantifies the logic of public risk perception and provides an effective means for measuring and responding to perceived risks. (authors)

  3. Model risk analysis for risk management and option pricing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kerkhof, F.L.J.

    2003-01-01

    Due to the growing complexity of products in financial markets, market participants rely more and more on quantitative models for trading and risk management decisions. This introduces a fairly new type of risk, namely, model risk. In the first part of this thesis we investigate the quantitative

  4. Beyond the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction: Vulnerability Reduction as a Challenge Involving Historical and Traditional Buildings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valentina Pica

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available In observance of the international procedures on disaster risk management, and in particular the Sendai Framework (2015, this research focuses on how more specific procedures related to it can be made effective in the treatment of historic areas worldwide. Disaster risk management is now viewed as being important in the context of historic buildings, as they are strongly related to cultural identity as well as to resilient communities, and can have a large impact on local economies. The study points out that cultural heritage might be the core field of action for capacity building in less vulnerable places, and that its protection is one of the main tasks to attend to in order to achieve the goal of vulnerability reduction. The paper also aims to answer questions such as: which actions could allow better protection of cultural heritage? Is it correct to involve local communities in reconstruction plans by capacity building and self-managed projects? How have reconstruction plans been managed recently worldwide? By further developing the applicability of the priority areas of action of the Sendai Framework, the research illustrates critical points and best practices that will hopefully support disaster risk reduction based on strategic management and remote monitoring, involving technologies and social participation.

  5. Social media in disaster risk reduction and crisis management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexander, David E

    2014-09-01

    This paper reviews the actual and potential use of social media in emergency, disaster and crisis situations. This is a field that has generated intense interest. It is characterised by a burgeoning but small and very recent literature. In the emergencies field, social media (blogs, messaging, sites such as Facebook, wikis and so on) are used in seven different ways: listening to public debate, monitoring situations, extending emergency response and management, crowd-sourcing and collaborative development, creating social cohesion, furthering causes (including charitable donation) and enhancing research. Appreciation of the positive side of social media is balanced by their potential for negative developments, such as disseminating rumours, undermining authority and promoting terrorist acts. This leads to an examination of the ethics of social media usage in crisis situations. Despite some clearly identifiable risks, for example regarding the violation of privacy, it appears that public consensus on ethics will tend to override unscrupulous attempts to subvert the media. Moreover, social media are a robust means of exposing corruption and malpractice. In synthesis, the widespread adoption and use of social media by members of the public throughout the world heralds a new age in which it is imperative that emergency managers adapt their working practices to the challenge and potential of this development. At the same time, they must heed the ethical warnings and ensure that social media are not abused or misused when crises and emergencies occur.

  6. The critical role of volcano monitoring in risk reduction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. I. Tilling

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Data from volcano-monitoring studies constitute the only scientifically valid basis for short-term forecasts of a future eruption, or of possible changes during an ongoing eruption. Thus, in any effective hazards-mitigation program, a basic strategy in reducing volcano risk is the initiation or augmentation of volcano monitoring at historically active volcanoes and also at geologically young, but presently dormant, volcanoes with potential for reactivation. Beginning with the 1980s, substantial progress in volcano-monitoring techniques and networks – ground-based as well space-based – has been achieved. Although some geochemical monitoring techniques (e.g., remote measurement of volcanic gas emissions are being increasingly applied and show considerable promise, seismic and geodetic methods to date remain the techniques of choice and are the most widely used. Availability of comprehensive volcano-monitoring data was a decisive factor in the successful scientific and governmental responses to the reawakening of Mount St. elens (Washington, USA in 1980 and, more recently, to the powerful explosive eruptions at Mount Pinatubo (Luzon, Philippines in 1991. However, even with the ever-improving state-of-the-art in volcano monitoring and predictive capability, the Mount St. Helens and Pinatubo case histories unfortunately still represent the exceptions, rather than the rule, in successfully forecasting the most likely outcome of volcano unrest.

  7. Comparative effectiveness of personalized lifestyle management strategies for cardiovascular disease risk reduction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P. Chu (Paula); A. Pandya; J.A. Salomon (Joshua A); S.J. Goldie (Sue J); Hunink, M.G.M. (M.G. Myriam)

    2015-01-01

    textabstractBackground-Evidence shows that healthy diet, exercise, smoking interventions, and stress reduction reduce cardiovascular disease risk. We aimed to compare the effectiveness of these lifestyle interventions for individual risk profiles and determine their rank order in reducing 10-year

  8. Cost-effectiveness analysis of risk reduction at nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lochard, J.; Maccia, C.; Pages, P.

    1985-01-01

    Cost-effectiveness analysis of risk reduction is now widely accepted as a rational analytical framework to consistently address the resource allocation problem underlying any risk management process. This paper presents how this technique can be usefully applied to complex systems such as the management of radioactive releases from nuclear power plants into the environment. (orig.) [de

  9. Evaluation of an HIV-risk reduction programme for first-year ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Results indicated that HIV-related knowledge; condom knowledge and risk perception were enhanced by the HIV- related risk reduction programme. However, there is a need for improvement, especially with regard to attitudes towards condoms since some students still had negative attitudes even after the intervention ...

  10. Estimating mortality risk reduction and economic benefits from controlling ozone air pollution

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Committee on Estimating Mortality Risk Reduction Benefits from Decreasing Tropospheric Ozone Exposure

    2008-01-01

    ... in life expectancy, and to assess methods for estimating the monetary value of the reduced risk of premature death and increased life expectancy in the context of health-benefits analysis. Estimating Mortality Risk Reduction and Economic Benefits from Controlling Ozone Air Pollution details the committee's findings and posits several recommendations to address these issues.

  11. Analysis of risk-reduction measures for multiunit essential service water systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kohut, P.; Musicki, Z.; Fitzpatrick, R.

    1989-01-01

    Many risk analyses have indicated the potentially significant contribution to core damage frequency (CDF) due to the loss of the essential service water (ESW) function. The ESW system serves as the ultimate heat sink, and its failure can affect numerous safety components and systems, although it does not directly perform a frontline safety function. As such, probabilistic risk assessment studies usually analyze its failures through support system modeling; however, the direct loss of the ESW as an initiator may or may not be explicitly treated. In addition, the actual analysis is made more complex due to the linked initiating event nature of these events, since the system fault trees are coupled to the initiator in these cases. Previously, a specific safety issue was identified concerning the increase in core-melt vulnerability caused by the failure of the ESW system in pressurized water reactor (PWR) multiplant units that have only two service water (SW) pumps per unit with a backup crosstie capability to the other unit. The main objective of the present study was to establish a realistic measure of the core damage vulnerability, to identify potential improvements for the ESW systems, and to obtain generic estimates of their risk-reduction potential and cost-effectiveness

  12. RISK REDUCTION WITH A FUZZY EXPERT EXPLORATION TOOL

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    William W. Weiss

    2000-06-30

    Incomplete or sparse information on geologic or formation characteristics introduces a high level of risk for oil exploration and development projects. Expert systems have been developed and used in several disciplines and industries, including medical diagnostics, with favorable results. A state-of-the-art exploration ''expert'' tool, relying on a computerized data base and computer maps generated by neural networks, is proposed through the use of ''fuzzy'' logic, a relatively new mathematical treatment of imprecise or non-explicit parameters and values. This project will develop an Artificial Intelligence system that will draw upon a wide variety of information to provide realistic estimates of risk. ''Fuzzy logic,'' a system of integrating large amounts of inexact, incomplete information with modern computational methods to derive usable conclusions, has been demonstrated as a cost-effective computational technology in many industrial applications. During project year 1, 90% of geologic, geophysical, production and price data were assimilated for installation into the database. Logs provided geologic data consisting of formation tops of the Brushy Canyon, Lower Brushy Canyon, and Bone Springs zones of 700 wells used to construct regional cross sections. Regional structure and isopach maps were constructed using kriging to interpolate between the measured points. One of the structure derivative maps (azimuth of curvature) visually correlates with Brushy Canyon fields on the maximum change contours. Derivatives of the regional geophysical data also visually correlate with the location of the fields. The azimuth of maximum dip approximately locates fields on the maximum change contours. In a similar manner the second derivative in the x-direction of the gravity map visually correlates with the alignment of the known fields. The visual correlations strongly suggest that neural network architectures will be

  13. Using employee experts to offer an interprofessional diabetes risk reduction program to fellow employees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lenz, Thomas L; Gillespie, Nicole D; Skrabal, Maryann Z; Faulkner, Michele A; Skradski, Jessica J; Ferguson, Liz A; Pagenkemper, Joni J; Moore, Geri A; Jorgensen, Diane

    2013-03-01

    A recent increase in the incidence of diabetes and pre-diabetes is causing many employers to spend more of their healthcare benefit budgets to manage the conditions. A self-insured university in the USA has implemented an interprofessional diabetes mellitus risk reduction program using its own employee faculty and staff experts to help fellow employees manage their diabetes and pre-diabetes. The interprofessional team consists of five pharmacists, a dietitian, an exercise physiologist, a health educator and a licensed mental health practitioner. In addition, the participant's physician serves as a consultant to the program, as does a human resources healthcare benefits specialist and a wellness coordinator. The volunteer program takes place at the worksite during regular business hours and is free of charge to the employees. The faculty and staff delivering the program justify the cost of their time through an interprofessional educational model that the program will soon provide to university students.

  14. Governance of disaster risk reduction in Cameroon: The need to empower local government

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henry N. Bang

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available The impact of natural hazards and/or disasters in Cameroon continues to hit local communities hardest, but local government lacks the ability to manage disaster risks adequately. This is partly due to the fact that the necessity to mainstream disaster risk reduction into local governance and development practices is not yet an underlying principle of Cameroon’s disaster management framework. Using empirical and secondary data, this paper analyses the governance of disaster risks in Cameroon with particular focus on the challenges local government faces in implementing disaster risk reduction strategies. The hypothesis is that the governance of disaster risks is too centralised at the national level, with huge implications for the effective governance of disaster risks at the local level. Although Cameroon has reinvigorated efforts to address growing disaster risks in a proactive way, it is argued that the practical actions are more reactive than proactive in nature. The overall aim is to explore the challenges and opportunities that local government has in the governance of disaster risks. Based on the findings from this research, policy recommendations are suggested on ways to mainstream disaster risk reduction strategies into local governance, and advance understanding and practice in the local governance of disaster risks in the country.

  15. Moderate alcohol consumption and cardiovascular risk reduction: open issues

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simona Costanzo

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available

    Background: The inverse relationship between low to moderate alcohol consumption and several favorable health outcomes has been well established in many epidemiological studies and meta-analyses. However, several questions still remain controversial.

    Aims: To discuss a number of open questions relating to the healthy effect of a moderate intake of alcohol (especially wine on cardiovascular disease and total mortality. This will be based on findings from the literature, with a particular emphasis on meta-analyses.

    Results and Conclusion: The role of different alcoholic beverages, age and sex, confounding, former drinkers and study design has been discussed. Whether wine is better than beer or spirits, though suggestive, remains to be established. Cardiovascular morbidity and total mortality is significantly reduced both in men and women who are regular drinkers of low amounts of alcohol; however, the predicted protection in women disappears at lower doses than in men. The primary protection of alcohol decreases after adjustment for known variables, thus confirming the importance of confounding in assessing drinking effects, but it remains significant and of undoubted public health value. As the cardiovascular protection by moderate alcohol consumption might have been unduly overestimated by inclusion in control groups of former drinkers, we compared studies that used as a reference group the category of no alcohol intake and/or formally excluded former drinkers with studies which did not: the protection was indeed somewhat lower in the former than in the latter studies, but was still statistically significant. We conclude that the dose-response relationship between alcohol intake and cardiovascular risk or total mortality, consistently described by J-shaped curves, can be reasonably attributed to a combination of both real beneficial (at lower doses and harmful (at higher doses

  16. Health risk reduction programs in employer-sponsored health plans: Part II-law and ethics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rothstein, Mark A; Harrell, Heather L

    2009-08-01

    We sought to examine the legal and ethical implications of workplace health risk reduction programs (HRRPs) using health risk assessments, individually focused risk reduction, and financial incentives to promote compliance. We conducted a literature review, analyzed relevant statutes and regulations, and considered the effects of these programs on employee health privacy. A variety of laws regulate HRRPs, and there is little evidence that employer-sponsored HRRPs violate these provisions; infringement on individual health privacy is more difficult to assess. Although current laws permit a wide range of employer health promotion activities, HRRPs also may entail largely unquantifiable costs to employee privacy and related interests.

  17. Health Risk Reduction Programs in Employer-Sponsored Health Plans: Part II—Law and Ethics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rothstein, Mark A.; Harrell, Heather L.

    2011-01-01

    Objective We sought to examine the legal and ethical implications of workplace health risk reduction programs (HRRPs) using health risk assessments, individually focused risk reduction, and financial incentives to promote compliance. Methods We conducted a literature review, analyzed relevant statutes and regulations, and considered the effects of these programs on employee health privacy. Results A variety of laws regulate HRRPs, and there is little evidence that employer-sponsored HRRPs violate these provisions; infringement on individual health privacy is more difficult to assess. Conclusion Although current laws permit a wide range of employer health promotion activities, HRRPs also may entail largely unquantifiable costs to employee privacy and related interests. PMID:19625971

  18. US-Soviet cooperation in countering nuclear terrorism: the role of risk reduction centers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nunn, S.; Warner, J.W.

    1987-01-01

    Preventing nuclear terrorism should be high on the agenda of US-Soviet relations. Indeed, the specter of nuclear terrorism, more than any other factor originally prompted and has subsequently sustained the author's deep interest in US-Soviet agreements on establishment of US-Soviet Nuclear Risk Reduction Centers and other important risk-reduction measures. Such centers can play an invaluable role in facilitating discussions aimed at forestalling possible contingencies and in providing a mechanism for dampening escalatory dangers that might otherwise result from any future nuclear terrorism incident. In addition to these crucial substantive functions, the centers could serve to reassure anxious publics that the governments they have entrusted with command authority over tens of thousands of nuclear devices are giving the highest priority to reducing the risk that any of them will ever be used, whether by design or by accident. Nuclear risk Reduction Centers are an idea whose time has come

  19. Disaster Risk Reduction through Innovative Uses of Crowd Sourcing (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berger, J.; Greene, M.

    2010-12-01

    Crowd sourcing can be described as a method of distributed problem-solving. It takes advantage of the power of the crowd, which can in some cases be a community of experts and in other cases the collective insight of a broader range of contributors with varying degrees of domain knowledge. The term crowd sourcing was first used by Jeff Howe in a June 2006 Wired magazine article “The Rise of Crowdsourcing,” and is a combination of the terms “crowd” and “outsourcing.” Some commonly known examples of crowd sourcing, in its broadest sense, include Wikepedia, distributed participatory design projects, and consumer websites such as Yelp and Angie’s List. The popularity and success of early large-scale crowd sourcing activities is made possible through leveraging Web 2.0 technologies that allow for mass participation from distributed individuals. The Earthquake Engineering Research Institute (EERI) in Oakland, California recently participated in two crowd sourcing projects. One was initiated and coordinated by EERI, while in the second case EERI was invited to contribute once the crowd sourcing activity was underway. In both projects there was: 1) the determination of a problem or set of tasks that could benefit immediately from the engagement of an informed volunteer group of professionals; 2) a segmenting of the problem into discrete pieces that could be completed in a short period of time (from ten minutes to four hours); 3) a call to action, where an interested community was made aware of the project; and 4) the collection, aggregation, vetting and ultimately distribution of the results in a relatively short period of time. The first EERI crowd sourcing example was the use of practicing engineers and engineering students in California to help estimate the number of pre-1980 concrete buildings in the high seismic risk counties in the state. This building type is known to perform poorly in earthquakes, and state officials were interested in understanding

  20. Perceptions of farmers on health risks and risk reduction measures in wastewater-irrigated urban vegetable farming in Ghana

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Keraita, Bernard; Drechsel, Pay; Konradsen, Flemming

    2008-01-01

    , authorities and the general public, especially if they had some incentives. These findings demonstrate the need to involve farmers as early as possible in intervention projects especially in informal farming practices, like urban agriculture, where restrictions are difficult to implement. This will ensure......Most irrigation water used in urban vegetable farming in Ghana is contaminated with untreated wastewater. This poses health risks to farmers and consumers. As part of a study to explore options for health risk reduction, this paper summarizes farmers' perceptions on health risks and possible risk...

  1. Comparative Effectiveness of Personalized Lifestyle Management Strategies for Cardiovascular Disease Risk Reduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chu, Paula; Pandya, Ankur; Salomon, Joshua A; Goldie, Sue J; Hunink, M G Myriam

    2016-03-29

    Evidence shows that healthy diet, exercise, smoking interventions, and stress reduction reduce cardiovascular disease risk. We aimed to compare the effectiveness of these lifestyle interventions for individual risk profiles and determine their rank order in reducing 10-year cardiovascular disease risk. We computed risks using the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Pooled Cohort Equations for a variety of individual profiles. Using published literature on risk factor reductions through diverse lifestyle interventions-group therapy for stopping smoking, Mediterranean diet, aerobic exercise (walking), and yoga-we calculated the risk reduction through each of these interventions to determine the strategy associated with the maximum benefit for each profile. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to test the robustness of the results. In the base-case analysis, yoga was associated with the largest 10-year cardiovascular disease risk reductions (maximum absolute reduction 16.7% for the highest-risk individuals). Walking generally ranked second (max 11.4%), followed by Mediterranean diet (max 9.2%), and group therapy for smoking (max 1.6%). If the individual was a current smoker and successfully quit smoking (ie, achieved complete smoking cessation), then stopping smoking yielded the largest reduction. Probabilistic and 1-way sensitivity analysis confirmed the demonstrated trend. This study reports the comparative effectiveness of several forms of lifestyle modifications and found smoking cessation and yoga to be the most effective forms of cardiovascular disease prevention. Future research should focus on patient adherence to personalized therapies, cost-effectiveness of these strategies, and the potential for enhanced benefit when interventions are performed simultaneously rather than as single measures. © 2016 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley Blackwell.

  2. Sexual health risk reduction interventions for people with severe mental illness: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pandor, Abdullah; Kaltenthaler, Eva; Higgins, Agnes; Lorimer, Karen; Smith, Shubulade; Wylie, Kevan; Wong, Ruth

    2015-02-12

    Despite variability in sexual activity among people with severe mental illness, high-risk sexual behavior (e.g. unprotected intercourse, multiple partners, sex trade and illicit drug use) is common. Sexual health risk reduction interventions (such as educational and behavioral interventions, motivational exercises, counselling and service delivery), developed and implemented for people with severe mental illness, may improve participants' knowledge, attitudes, beliefs behaviors or practices (including assertiveness skills) and could lead to a reduction in risky sexual behavior. This systematic review evaluates the effectiveness of sexual health risk reduction interventions for people with severe mental illness. Thirteen electronic databases (including MEDLINE, EMBASE and PsycINFO) were searched to August 2014, and supplemented by hand-searching relevant articles and contacting experts. All controlled trials (randomized or non-randomized) comparing the effectiveness of sexual health risk reduction interventions with usual care for individuals living in the community with severe mental illness were included. Outcomes included a range of biological, behavioral and proxy endpoints. Narrative synthesis was used to combine the evidence. Thirteen controlled trials (all from the USA) were included. Although there was no clear and consistent evidence that interventions reduce the total number of sex partners or improved behavioral intentions in sexual risk behavior, positive effects were generally observed in condom use, condom protected intercourse and on measures of HIV knowledge, attitudes to condom use and sexual behaviors and practices. However, the robustness of these findings is low due to the large between study variability, small sample sizes and low-to-moderate quality of included studies. There is insufficient evidence at present to fully support or reject the identified sexual health risk reduction interventions for people with severe mental illness. Given the

  3. Fast model updating coupling Bayesian inference and PGD model reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubio, Paul-Baptiste; Louf, François; Chamoin, Ludovic

    2018-04-01

    The paper focuses on a coupled Bayesian-Proper Generalized Decomposition (PGD) approach for the real-time identification and updating of numerical models. The purpose is to use the most general case of Bayesian inference theory in order to address inverse problems and to deal with different sources of uncertainties (measurement and model errors, stochastic parameters). In order to do so with a reasonable CPU cost, the idea is to replace the direct model called for Monte-Carlo sampling by a PGD reduced model, and in some cases directly compute the probability density functions from the obtained analytical formulation. This procedure is first applied to a welding control example with the updating of a deterministic parameter. In the second application, the identification of a stochastic parameter is studied through a glued assembly example.

  4. Exploring HIV-testing intentions in young Asian/Pacific Islander (API) women as it relates to acculturation, theory of gender and power (TGP), and the AIDS risk reduction model (ARRM).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salud, Margaret C; Marshak, Helen Hopp; Natto, Zuhair S; Montgomery, Susanne

    2014-01-01

    While HIV rates are low for Asian/Pacific Islanders (APIs), they have been increasing, especially for API women in the USA. We conducted a cross-sectional study with 299 young API women (18-24 years old) in the Inland Empire region of Southern California to better understand their intention for HIV testing and their perceptions about HIV/AIDS. Data analyses included descriptive statistics, bivariate exploration for model building and multivariate analyses to determine variables associated with HIV-testing intentions. Results suggest that more lifetime sexual partners, greater perceived gender susceptibility, higher HIV/AIDS knowledge, sexually active, more positive attitudes about HIV testing and higher self-perceptions/experiences related to risk contribute to stronger intentions for HIV testing in young API women. Findings from this study will contribute to the limited literature on HIV/AIDS in API women and provide information that can be used for developing and implementing culturally appropriate programs that encourage HIV prevention and testing in this population.

  5. Credit Risk Evaluation : Modeling - Analysis - Management

    OpenAIRE

    Wehrspohn, Uwe

    2002-01-01

    An analysis and further development of the building blocks of modern credit risk management: -Definitions of default -Estimation of default probabilities -Exposures -Recovery Rates -Pricing -Concepts of portfolio dependence -Time horizons for risk calculations -Quantification of portfolio risk -Estimation of risk measures -Portfolio analysis and portfolio improvement -Evaluation and comparison of credit risk models -Analytic portfolio loss distributions The thesis contributes to the evaluatio...

  6. Mechanism of nitric acid reduction and kinetic modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sicsic, David; Balbaud-Celerier, Fanny; Tribollet, Bernard

    2014-01-01

    In France, the recycling of nuclear waste fuels involves the use of hot concentrated nitric acid. The understanding and prediction of the behaviour of the structural materials (mainly austenitic stainless steels) requires the determination and modelling of the nitric acid reduction process. Nitric acid is indirectly reduced by an autocatalytic mechanism depending on the cathodic overpotential and acid concentration. This mechanism has been widely studied. All the authors agree on its autocatalytic nature, characterized by the predominant role of the reduction products. It is also generally admitted that neither nitric acid nor the nitrate ion is the electro-active species. However, the nature of the electro-active species, the place where the catalytic species regenerates and the thermodynamic and kinetic behaviour of the reaction intermediates remain uncertain. The aim of this study was to clarify some of these uncertainties by performing an electrochemical investigation of the reduction of 4 M nitric acid at 40 C at an inert electrode (platinum or gold). An inert electrode was chosen as the working electrode in a first step to avoid its oxidation and focus the research on the reduction mechanism. This experimental work enabled us to suggest a coherent sequence of electrochemical and chemical reactions. Kinetic modelling of this sequence was then carried out for a gold rotating disk electrode. A thermodynamic study at 25 C allowed the composition of the liquid and gaseous phases of nitric acid solutions in the concentration range 0.5-22 M to be evaluated. The kinetics of the reduction of 4 M nitric acid was investigated by cyclic voltammetry and chrono-amperometry at an inert electrode at 40 C. The coupling of chrono-amperometry and FTIR spectroscopy in the gaseous phase led to the identification of the gaseous reduction products as a function of the cathodic overpotential. The results showed that the reduction process is autocatalytic for potentials between 0

  7. POTENTIAL HEALTH RISK REDUCTION ARISING FROM REDUCED MERCURY EMISSIONS FROM COAL FIRED POWER PLANTS.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sullivan, T. M.; Lipfert, F. W.; Morris, S. C.; Moskowitz, P. D.

    2001-09-01

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has announced plans to regulate mercury (Hg) emissions from coal-fired power plants. EPA has not prepared a quantitative assessment of the reduction in risk that could be achieved through reduction in coal plant emissions of Hg. To address this issue, Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) with support from the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Fossil Energy (DOE FE) prepared a quantitative assessment of the reduction in human health risk that could be achieved through reduction in coal plant emissions of Hg. The primary pathway for Hg exposure is through consumption of fish. The most susceptible population to Hg exposure is the fetus. Therefore the risk assessment focused on consumption of fish by women of child-bearing age. Dose response factors were generated from studies on loss of cognitive abilities (language skills, motor skills, etc.) by young children whose mothers consumed large amounts of fish with high Hg levels. Population risks were estimated for the general population in three regions of the country, (the Midwest, Northeast, and Southeast) that were identified by EPA as being heavily impacted by coal emissions. Three scenarios for reducing Hg emissions from coal plants were considered: (1) A base case using current conditions; (2) A 50% reduction; and, (3) A 90% reduction. These reductions in emissions were assumed to translate linearly into a reduction in fish Hg levels of 8.6% and 15.5%, respectively. Population risk estimates were also calculated for two subsistence fisher populations. These groups of people consume substantially more fish than the general public and, depending on location, the fish may contain higher Hg levels than average. Risk estimates for these groups were calculated for the three Hg levels used for the general population analyses. Analysis shows that the general population risks for exposure of the fetus to Hg are small. Estimated risks under current conditions (i.e., no

  8. Parallel structures for disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation in Southern Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Per Becker

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available During the last decade, the interest of the international community in the concepts of disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation has been growing immensely. Even though an increasing number of scholars seem to view these concepts as two sides of the same coin (at least when not considering the potentially positive effects of climate change, in practice the two concepts have developed in parallel rather than in an integrated manner when it comes to policy, rhetoric and funding opportunities amongst international organisations and donors. This study investigates the extent of the creation of parallel structures for disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation in the Southern African Development Community (SADC region. The chosen methodology for the study is a comparative case study and the data are collected through focus groups and content analysis of documentary sources, as well as interviews with key informants. The results indicate that parallel structures for disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation have been established in all but one of the studied countries. The qualitative interviews performed in some of the countries indicate that stakeholders in disaster risk reduction view this duplication of structures as unfortunate, inefficient and a fertile setup for conflict over resources for the implementation of similar activities. Additional research is called for in order to study the concrete effects of having these parallel structures as a foundation for advocacy for more efficient future disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation.

  9. Evaluation of severe accident risks and the potential for risk reduction: Surry Power Station, Unit 1: Draft report for comment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benjamin, A.S.; Boyd, G.J.; Kunsman, D.M.; Murfin, W.B.; Williams, D.C.

    1987-02-01

    The Severe Accident Risk Reduction Program (SARRP) has completed a rebaselining of the risks to the public from a particular pressurized water reactor with a subatmospheric containment (Surry, Unit 1). Emphasis was placed on determining the magnitude and character of the uncertainties, rather than focusing on a point estimate. The risk-reduction potential of a set of proposed safety option backfits was also studied, and their costs and benefits were also evaluated. It was found that the risks from internal events are generally lower than previously evaluated in the Reactor Safety Study (RSS). However, certain unresolved issues (such as direct containment heating) caused the top of the uncertainty band to appear at a level that is comparable with the RSS point estimate. None of the postulated safety options appears to be cost effective for the Surry power plant. This work supports the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's assessment of severe accidents in NUREG-1150

  10. Evaluation of severe accident risks and the potential for risk reduction: Surry Power Station, Unit 1: Draft report for comment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Benjamin, A.S.; Boyd, G.J.; Kunsman, D.M.; Murfin, W.B.; Williams, D.C.

    1987-02-01

    The Severe Accident Risk Reduction Program (SARRP) has completed a rebaselining of the risks to the public from a particular pressurized water reactor with a subatmospheric containment (Surry, Unit 1). Emphasis was placed on determining the magnitude and character of the uncertainties, rather than focusing on a point estimate. The risk-reduction potential of a set of proposed safety option backfits was also studied, and their costs and benefits were also evaluated. It was found that the risks from internal events are generally lower than previously evaluated in the Reactor Safety Study (RSS). However, certain unresolved issues (such as direct containment heating) caused the top of the uncertainty band to appear at a level that is comparable with the RSS point estimate. None of the postulated safety options appears to be cost effective for the Surry power plant. This work supports the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's assessment of severe accidents in NUREG-1150.

  11. Dynamical reduction models: present status and future developments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bassi, Angelo [Dipartimento di Fisica Teorica, Universita degli Studi di Trieste, Strada Costiera 11, 34014 Trieste (Italy); Mathematisches Institut der Ludwig-Maximilians Universitaet, Theresienstr. 39, 80333 Munich (Germany)

    2007-05-15

    We review the major achievements of the dynamical reduction program, showing why and how it provides a unified, consistent description of physical phenomena, from the microscopic quantum domain to the macroscopic classical one. We discuss the difficulties in generalizing the existing models in order to comprise also relativistic quantum field theories. We point out possible future lines of research, ranging from mathematical physics to phenomenology.

  12. Reflections from the interface between seismological research and earthquake risk reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sargeant, S.

    2012-04-01

    Scientific understanding of earthquakes and their attendant hazards is vital for the development of effective earthquake risk reduction strategies. Within the global disaster reduction policy framework (the Hyogo Framework for Action, overseen by the UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction), the anticipated role of science and scientists is clear, with respect to risk assessment, loss estimation, space-based observation, early warning and forecasting. The importance of information sharing and cooperation, cross-disciplinary networks and developing technical and institutional capacity for effective disaster management is also highlighted. In practice, the degree to which seismological information is successfully delivered to and applied by individuals, groups or organisations working to manage or reduce the risk from earthquakes is variable. The challenge for scientists is to provide fit-for-purpose information that can be integrated simply into decision-making and risk reduction activities at all levels of governance and at different geographic scales, often by a non-technical audience (i.e. people without any seismological/earthquake engineering training). The interface between seismological research and earthquake risk reduction (defined here in terms of both the relationship between the science and its application, and the scientist and other risk stakeholders) is complex. This complexity is a function of a range issues that arise relating to communication, multidisciplinary working, politics, organisational practices, inter-organisational collaboration, working practices, sectoral cultures, individual and organisational values, worldviews and expectations. These factors can present significant obstacles to scientific information being incorporated into the decision-making process. The purpose of this paper is to present some personal reflections on the nature of the interface between the worlds of seismological research and risk reduction, and the

  13. The roles of exercise and fall risk reduction in the prevention of osteoporosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henderson, N K; White, C P; Eisman, J A

    1998-06-01

    In summary, the optimal model for the prevention of osteoporotic fractures includes maximization and maintenance of bone strength and minimization of trauma. Numerous determinants of each have been identified, but further work to develop preventative strategies based on these determinants remains to be undertaken. Physical activity is a determinant of peak BMD. There also is evidence that activity during growth modulates the external geometry and trabecular architecture, potentially enhancing skeletal strength, while during the adult years activity may reduce age-related bone loss. The magnitude of the effect of a 7% to 8% increase in peak BMD, if maintained through the adult years, could translate to a 1.5-fold reduction in fracture risk. Moreover, in the older population, appropriate forms of exercise could reduce the risk of falling and, thus, further reduce fracture risk. These data must be considered as preliminary in view of the paucity of long-term fracture outcome data from randomized clinical trials. However, current information suggests that the optimal form of exercise to achieve these objectives may vary through life. Vigorous physical activity (including weight-bearing, resistance, and impact components) during childhood may maximize peak BMD. This type of activity seems optimal through the young adult years, but as inevitable age-related degeneration occurs, activity modification to limit the impact component of exercise may become necessary. In the elderly, progressive strength training has been demonstrated to be a safe and effective form of exercise that reduces risk factors for falling and may also enhance BMD. In the frail elderly, activity to improve balance and confidence also may be valuable. Group activities such as Tai Chi may be cost-effective. Precise prescriptions must await the outcome of well-designed, controlled longitudinal studies that include fracture as an outcome. However, increased physical activity seems to be a sensible

  14. Risk measures in practical use: risk reduction has its price, but is it known?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reinertsen, Rune

    1995-01-01

    Different risk measures are discussed in order to decide which to use to best express the risk workers are exposed to. A new risk measure is introduced and advantages and disadvantages are presented. The need for a new risk measure (Expected Number of Fatalities Rate ENFR), is discussed and explained with the help of an example. The example also contains a comparison with the well-known FAR-value. Also some problems and benefits of introducing a measure of the kind: ΔRISK/Δ$ are discussed and conclusions made. The question of what amount of money should be used on risk reducing activities is also addressed

  15. Health gain by salt reduction in europe: a modelling study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marieke A H Hendriksen

    Full Text Available Excessive salt intake is associated with hypertension and cardiovascular diseases. Salt intake exceeds the World Health Organization population nutrition goal of 5 grams per day in the European region. We assessed the health impact of salt reduction in nine European countries (Finland, France, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Poland, Spain, Sweden and United Kingdom. Through literature research we obtained current salt intake and systolic blood pressure levels of the nine countries. The population health modeling tool DYNAMO-HIA including country-specific disease data was used to predict the changes in prevalence of ischemic heart disease and stroke for each country estimating the effect of salt reduction through its effect on blood pressure levels. A 30% salt reduction would reduce the prevalence of stroke by 6.4% in Finland to 13.5% in Poland. Ischemic heart disease would be decreased by 4.1% in Finland to 8.9% in Poland. When salt intake is reduced to the WHO population nutrient goal, it would reduce the prevalence of stroke from 10.1% in Finland to 23.1% in Poland. Ischemic heart disease would decrease by 6.6% in Finland to 15.5% in Poland. The number of postponed deaths would be 102,100 (0.9% in France, and 191,300 (2.3% in Poland. A reduction of salt intake to 5 grams per day is expected to substantially reduce the burden of cardiovascular disease and mortality in several European countries.

  16. Environmental modeling and health risk analysis (ACTS/RISK)

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Aral, M. M

    2010-01-01

    ... presents a review of the topics of exposure and health risk analysis. The Analytical Contaminant Transport Analysis System (ACTS) and Health RISK Analysis (RISK) software tools are an integral part of the book and provide computational platforms for all the models discussed herein. The most recent versions of these two softwa...

  17. Statistical models for competing risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sather, H.N.

    1976-08-01

    Research results on three new models for potential applications in competing risks problems. One section covers the basic statistical relationships underlying the subsequent competing risks model development. Another discusses the problem of comparing cause-specific risk structure by competing risks theory in two homogeneous populations, P1 and P2. Weibull models which allow more generality than the Berkson and Elveback models are studied for the effect of time on the hazard function. The use of concomitant information for modeling single-risk survival is extended to the multiple failure mode domain of competing risks. The model used to illustrate the use of this methodology is a life table model which has constant hazards within pre-designated intervals of the time scale. Two parametric models for bivariate dependent competing risks, which provide interesting alternatives, are proposed and examined

  18. Modeling of oxide reduction in repeated-batch pyroprocessing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Hyo Jik; Im, Hun Suk; Park, Geun Il

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Pyroprocessing is a complicated batch-type operation. • Discrete event system modeling was used to create an integrated operation model. • Simulation showed that could be accomplished. • The dynamic material flow helps us understand the process operation. • We showed that complex material flow could be simulated in terms of mass balance. - Abstract: Pyroprocessing is a complicated batch-type operation, involving a highly complex material flow logic with a huge number of unit processes. Discrete event system modeling was used to create an integrated operation model for which simulation showed that dynamic material flow could be accomplished to provide considerable insight into the process operation. In the model simulation, the amount of material transported upstream and downstream in the process satisfies a mass balance equation while considering the hold-up incurred by every batch operation. This study also simulated, in detail, an oxide reduction group process embracing electrolytic reduction, cathode processing, and salt purification. Based on the default operation scenario, it showed that complex material flows could be precisely simulated in terms of the mass balance. Specifically, the amount of high-heat elements remaining in the molten salt bath is analyzed to evaluate the operation scenario.

  19. Risk matrix model for rotating equipment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wassan Rano Khan

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Different industries have various residual risk levels for their rotating equipment. Accordingly the occurrence rate of the failures and associated failure consequences categories are different. Thus, a generalized risk matrix model is developed in this study which can fit various available risk matrix standards. This generalized risk matrix will be helpful to develop new risk matrix, to fit the required risk assessment scenario for rotating equipment. Power generation system was taken as case study. It was observed that eight subsystems were under risk. Only vibration monitor system was under high risk category, while remaining seven subsystems were under serious and medium risk categories.

  20. An obesity/cardiometabolic risk reduction disease management program: a population-based approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villagra, Victor G

    2009-04-01

    Obesity is a critical health concern that has captured the attention of public and private healthcare payers who are interested in controlling costs and mitigating the long-term economic consequences of the obesity epidemic. Population-based approaches to obesity management have been proposed that take advantage of a chronic care model (CCM), including patient self-care, the use of community-based resources, and the realization of care continuity through ongoing communications with patients, information technology, and public policy changes. Payer-sponsored disease management programs represent an important conduit to delivering population-based care founded on similar CCM concepts. Disease management is founded on population-based disease identification, evidence-based care protocols, and collaborative practices between clinicians. While substantial clinician training, technology infrastructure commitments, and financial support at the payer level will be needed for the success of disease management programs in obesity and cardiometabolic risk reduction, these barriers can be overcome with the proper commitment. Disease management programs represent an important tool to combat the growing societal risks of overweight and obesity.

  1. Discrete Event System Based Pyroprocessing Modeling and Simulation: Oxide Reduction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, H. J.; Ko, W. I.; Choi, S. Y.; Kim, S. K.; Hur, J. M.; Choi, E. Y.; Im, H. S.; Park, K. I.; Kim, I. T.

    2014-01-01

    Dynamic changes according to the batch operation cannot be predicted in an equilibrium material flow. This study began to build a dynamic material balance model based on the previously developed pyroprocessing flowsheet. As a mid- and long-term research, an integrated pyroprocessing simulator is being developed at the Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI) to cope with a review on the technical feasibility, safeguards assessment, conceptual design of facility, and economic feasibility evaluation. The most fundamental thing in such a simulator development is to establish the dynamic material flow framework. This study focused on the operation modeling of pyroprocessing to implement a dynamic material flow. As a case study, oxide reduction was investigated in terms of a dynamic material flow. DES based modeling was applied to build a pyroprocessing operation model. A dynamic material flow as the basic framework for an integrated pyroprocessing was successfully implemented through ExtendSim's internal database and item blocks. Complex operation logic behavior was verified, for example, an oxide reduction process in terms of dynamic material flow. Compared to the equilibrium material flow, a model-based dynamic material flow provides such detailed information that a careful analysis of every batch is necessary to confirm the dynamic material balance results. With the default scenario of oxide reduction, the batch mass balance was verified in comparison with a one-year equilibrium mass balance. This study is still under progress with a mid-and long-term goal, the development of a multi-purpose pyroprocessing simulator that is able to cope with safeguards assessment, economic feasibility, technical evaluation, conceptual design, and support of licensing for a future pyroprocessing facility

  2. 76 FR 44301 - Information Collection; Homeowner Risk Reduction Behaviors Concerning Wildfire Risks and Climate...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-07-25

    ... the design of more effective risk mitigation projects and improved communication strategies among.... This information will assist the Forest Service in their risk communication efforts with ``at risk... of California State University of Long Beach, Long Beach, California. The results will be made...

  3. Exploring Perceived Risk and Risk Reduction Strategies in the Pursuit of Higher Education Abroad

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lam, Jason M. S.; Tong, David Yoon Kin; Ariffin, Ahmad Azmi M.

    2017-01-01

    While past studies have merely focused on perceived risks that influence how students select the destination of international education best suited to their needs, research on perceived risk regarding post-purchase behavior remains limited. This study attempts to extend and redefine the perceived risk paradigm by uncovering the underlying elements…

  4. Copper increases reductive dehalogenation of haloacetamides by zero-valent iron in drinking water: Reduction efficiency and integrated toxicity risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chu, Wenhai; Li, Xin; Bond, Tom; Gao, Naiyun; Bin, Xu; Wang, Qiongfang; Ding, Shunke

    2016-12-15

    The haloacetamides (HAcAms), an emerging class of nitrogen-containing disinfection byproducts (N-DBPs), are highly cytotoxic and genotoxic, and typically occur in treated drinking waters at low μg/L concentrations. Since many drinking distribution and storage systems contain unlined cast iron and copper pipes, reactions of HAcAms with zero-valent iron (ZVI) and metallic copper (Cu) may play a role in determining their fate. Moreover, ZVI and/or Cu are potentially effective HAcAm treatment technologies in drinking water supply and storage systems. This study reports that ZVI alone reduces trichloroacetamide (TCAcAm) to sequentially form dichloroacetamide (DCAcAm) and then monochloroacetamide (MCAcAm), whereas Cu alone does not impact HAcAm concentrations. The addition of Cu to ZVI significantly improved the removal of HAcAms, relative to ZVI alone. TCAcAm and their reduction products (DCAcAm and MCAcAm) were all decreased to below detection limits at a molar ratio of ZVI/Cu of 1:1 after 24 h reaction (ZVI/TCAcAm = 0.18 M/5.30 μM). TCAcAm reduction increased with the decreasing pH from 8.0 to 5.0, but values from an integrated toxic risk assessment were minimised at pH 7.0, due to limited removal MCAcAm under weak acid conditions (pH = 5.0 and 6.0). Higher temperatures (40 °C) promoted the reductive dehalogenation of HAcAms. Bromine was preferentially removed over chlorine, thus brominated HAcAms were more easily reduced than chlorinated HAcAms by ZVI/Cu. Although tribromoacetamide was more easily reduced than TCAcAm during ZVI/Cu reduction, treatment of tribromoacetamide resulted in a higher integrated toxicity risk than TCAcAm, due to the formation of monobromoacetamide (MBAcAm). Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Reduction of cancer risk by optimization of Computed Tomography head protocols: far eastern Cuban experience

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller Clemente, R.; Adame Brooks, D.; Lores Guevara, M.; Perez Diaz, M.; Arias Garlobo, M. L.; Ortega Rodriguez, O.; Nepite Haber, R.; Grinnan Hernandez, O.; Guillama Llosas, A.

    2015-01-01

    The cancer risk estimation constitutes one way for the evaluation of the public health, regarding computed tomography (CT) exposures. Starting from the hypothesis that the optimization of CT protocols would reduce significantly the added cancer risk, the purpose of this research was the application of optimization strategies regarding head CT protocols, in order to reduce the factors affecting the risk of induced cancer. The applied systemic approach included technological and human components, represented by quantitative physical factors. the volumetric kerma indexes, compared with respect to standard, optimized and reference values, were evaluated with multiple means comparison method. The added cancer risk resulted from the application of the methodology for biological effects evaluation, at low doses with low Linear Energy Transfer. Human observers in all scenarios evaluated the image quality. the reduced dose was significantly lower than for standard head protocols and reference levels, where: (1) for pediatric patients, by using an Automatic Exposure Control system, a reduction of 31% compared with standard protocol and ages range of 10-14, and (2) adults, using a Bilateral Filter for images obtained at low doses of 62% from those of standard head protocol. The risk reduction was higher than 25%. The systemic approach used allows the effective identification of factors involved on cancer risk related with exposures to CT. The combination of dose modulation and image restoration with Bilateral Filter, provide a significantly reduction of cancer risk, with acceptable diagnostic image quality. (Author)

  6. Temporal rainfall estimation using input data reduction and model inversion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, A. J.; Vrugt, J. A.; Walker, J. P.; Pauwels, V. R. N.

    2016-12-01

    Floods are devastating natural hazards. To provide accurate, precise and timely flood forecasts there is a need to understand the uncertainties associated with temporal rainfall and model parameters. The estimation of temporal rainfall and model parameter distributions from streamflow observations in complex dynamic catchments adds skill to current areal rainfall estimation methods, allows for the uncertainty of rainfall input to be considered when estimating model parameters and provides the ability to estimate rainfall from poorly gauged catchments. Current methods to estimate temporal rainfall distributions from streamflow are unable to adequately explain and invert complex non-linear hydrologic systems. This study uses the Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT) to reduce rainfall dimensionality for the catchment of Warwick, Queensland, Australia. The reduction of rainfall to DWT coefficients allows the input rainfall time series to be simultaneously estimated along with model parameters. The estimation process is conducted using multi-chain Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation with the DREAMZS algorithm. The use of a likelihood function that considers both rainfall and streamflow error allows for model parameter and temporal rainfall distributions to be estimated. Estimation of the wavelet approximation coefficients of lower order decomposition structures was able to estimate the most realistic temporal rainfall distributions. These rainfall estimates were all able to simulate streamflow that was superior to the results of a traditional calibration approach. It is shown that the choice of wavelet has a considerable impact on the robustness of the inversion. The results demonstrate that streamflow data contains sufficient information to estimate temporal rainfall and model parameter distributions. The extent and variance of rainfall time series that are able to simulate streamflow that is superior to that simulated by a traditional calibration approach is a

  7. Blood Glucose Reduction by Diabetic Drugs with Minimal Hypoglycemia Risk for Cardiovascular Outcomes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Huang, Chi-Jung; Wang, Wei-Ting; Sung, Shih-Hsien

    2018-01-01

    of antidiabetic drugs with less hypoglycemia risk were comprehensively searched in MEDLINE, Embase, and the Cochrane Library up to January 27, 2018. Mixed-effects meta-regression analysis was conducted to explore the relationship between haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) reduction and the risk of major adverse...... concentration was 0.42% lower (median, 0.27-0.86%) for participants given antihyperglycemic agents than those given placebo. The meta-regression analysis demonstrated that HbA1c reduction was significantly associated with a decreased risk of MACE (β value, -0.39 to -0.55; P...-40%) for MACE. By contrast, the meta-regression analysis for trials using conventional agents failed to demonstrate a significant relationship between achieved HbA1c difference and MACE risk (P>0.74). CONCLUSIONS: Compared with placebo, newer T2D agents with less hypoglycemic hazard significantly reduced...

  8. A comparison of mantle versus involved-field radiotherapy for Hodgkin's lymphoma: reduction in normal tissue dose and second cancer risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koh, Eng-Siew; Paul, Narinder; Hodgson, David C; Tran, Tu Huan; Heydarian, Mostafa; Sachs, Rainer K; Tsang, Richard W; Brenner, David J; Pintilie, Melania; Xu, Tony; Chung, June

    2007-01-01

    Hodgkin's lymphoma (HL) survivors who undergo radiotherapy experience increased risks of second cancers (SC) and cardiac sequelae. To reduce such risks, extended-field radiotherapy (RT) for HL has largely been replaced by involved field radiotherapy (IFRT). While it has generally been assumed that IFRT will reduce SC risks, there are few data that quantify the reduction in dose to normal tissues associated with modern RT practice for patients with mediastinal HL, and no estimates of the expected reduction in SC risk. Organ-specific dose-volume histograms (DVH) were generated for 41 patients receiving 35 Gy mantle RT, 35 Gy IFRT, or 20 Gy IFRT, and integrated organ mean doses were compared for the three protocols. Organ-specific SC risk estimates were estimated using a dosimetric risk-modeling approach, analyzing DVH data with quantitative, mechanistic models of radiation-induced cancer. Dose reductions resulted in corresponding reductions in predicted excess relative risks (ERR) for SC induction. Moving from 35 Gy mantle RT to 35 Gy IFRT reduces predicted ERR for female breast and lung cancer by approximately 65%, and for male lung cancer by approximately 35%; moving from 35 Gy IFRT to 20 Gy IFRT reduces predicted ERRs approximately 40% more. The median reduction in integral dose to the whole heart with the transition to 35 Gy IFRT was 35%, with a smaller (2%) reduction in dose to proximal coronary arteries. There was no significant reduction in thyroid dose. The significant decreases estimated for radiation-induced SC risks associated with modern IFRT provide strong support for the use of IFRT to reduce the late effects of treatment. The approach employed here can provide new insight into the risks associated with contemporary IFRT for HL, and may facilitate the counseling of patients regarding the risks associated with this treatment

  9. Models for assessing and managing credit risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neogradi Slađana

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This essay deals with the definition of a model for assessing and managing credit risk. Risk is an inseparable component of any average and normal credit transaction. Looking at the different aspects of the identification and classification of risk in the banking industry as well as representation of the key components of modern risk management. In the first part of the essay will analyze how the impact of credit risk on bank and empirical models for determining the financial difficulties in which the company can be found. Bank on the basis of these models can reduce number of approved risk assets. In the second part, we consider models for improving credit risk with emphasis on Basel I, II and III, and the third part, we conclude that the most appropriate model and gives the best effect for measuring credit risk in domestic banks.

  10. Effects of Community Based Educational Prevention Program of Drug Abuse in Reduction of High Risk Behavior

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H Aranpour

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Overcoming social problems requires a participatory approach. This study was performed in order to determine the effect of community based educational prevention program of drug abuse in reduction of high risk behavior. Methods: This study was a community based participatory research. According to planned approach to community health model, "the health companion group" was established with participation of public representatives of villages, researchers, and managers of health sectors. Need assessment and priority setting of health problems was done. Drug abuse was selected as the topmost priority of health problems. By interviewing 10 year olds and older members of households, the questionnaires were completed. By conducting workshops, distributing educational pamphlets and face to face training for six months, the educational program was carried out. After this period, the study population was interviewed again. Data was analyzed by SPSS software, X2, and T tests. Results: The mean score of drug abuse related high risk behavior was 26.8 +/- 2.05 before educational program and 25.2 ±2.3 after the program. The mean score of psychological health was 26.2±5.8 before educational program and 26.4±5.7 after the program. The rate of negative drug abusing related behavior decreased and positive behavior increased after the educational program. Conclusion: The community based participatory research with participation of the public can be a proper pattern to prevent drug abuse and related high risk behaviors and as a result reduce costs and complications of this problem.

  11. Reduction of spatial distribution of risk factors for transportation of contaminants released by coal mining activities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karan, Shivesh Kishore; Samadder, Sukha Ranjan

    2016-09-15

    It is reported that water-energy nexus composes two of the biggest development and human health challenges. In the present study we presented a Risk Potential Index (RPI) model which encapsulates Source, Vector (Transport), and Target risks for forecasting surface water contamination. The main aim of the model is to identify critical surface water risk zones for an open cast mining environment, taking Jharia Coalfield, India as the study area. The model also helps in feasible sampling design. Based on spatial analysis various risk zones were successfully delineated. Monthly RPI distribution revealed that the risk of surface water contamination was highest during the monsoon months. Surface water samples were analysed to validate the model. A GIS based alternative management option was proposed to reduce surface water contamination risk and observed 96% and 86% decrease in the spatial distribution of very high risk areas for the months June and July respectively. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Verification and Uncertainty Reduction of Amchitka Underground Nuclear Testing Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ahmed Hassan; Jenny Chapman

    2006-02-01

    zero. The current results of no-breakthrough match this lower bound. (8) Significant uncertainty reduction is achieved for model input parameters (recharge, conductivity, and recharge-conductivity ratio) with the R/K ratio experiencing a very dramatic reduction. (9) Uncertainty in groundwater fluxes is also reduced due to the reduction of R/K uncertainty. (10) Groundwater velocities based on new data are orders of magnitude slower than the velocities produced by the 2002 model due to the higher porosity obtained from the analysis of the MT data. (11) Uncertainty reduction in radionuclide mass flux could not be assessed as the velocities are too small to produce radionuclide breakthrough within the model timeframe of 2,000 years.

  13. Dimensional Reduction for the General Markov Model on Phylogenetic Trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sumner, Jeremy G

    2017-03-01

    We present a method of dimensional reduction for the general Markov model of sequence evolution on a phylogenetic tree. We show that taking certain linear combinations of the associated random variables (site pattern counts) reduces the dimensionality of the model from exponential in the number of extant taxa, to quadratic in the number of taxa, while retaining the ability to statistically identify phylogenetic divergence events. A key feature is the identification of an invariant subspace which depends only bilinearly on the model parameters, in contrast to the usual multi-linear dependence in the full space. We discuss potential applications including the computation of split (edge) weights on phylogenetic trees from observed sequence data.

  14. RISK LOAN PORTFOLIO OPTIMIZATION MODEL BASED ON CVAR RISK MEASURE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming-Chang LEE

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available In order to achieve commercial banks liquidity, safety and profitability objective requirements, loan portfolio risk analysis based optimization decisions are rational allocation of assets.  The risk analysis and asset allocation are the key technology of banking and risk management.  The aim of this paper, build a loan portfolio optimization model based on risk analysis.  Loan portfolio rate of return by using Value-at-Risk (VaR and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR constraint optimization decision model reflects the bank's risk tolerance, and the potential loss of direct control of the bank.  In this paper, it analyze a general risk management model applied to portfolio problems with VaR and CVaR risk measures by using Using the Lagrangian Algorithm.  This paper solves the highly difficult problem by matrix operation method.  Therefore, the combination of this paper is easy understanding the portfolio problems with VaR and CVaR risk model is a hyperbola in mean-standard deviation space.  It is easy calculation in proposed method.

  15. Reduction of risk level as one of the main challenges of development in covered karst regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Makhnatov Stanislav A.

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper describes the experience of application of the residual karst risk concept, and presents coefficients of karst risk level reduction for planning constructional karst-protection. Practical experience of design for karstified territories of Nizhny Novgorod region demonstrates that special research of the interaction between constructions and foundations is required. Numerous accidents can serve vivid examples proving the need. I2n this situation it is important to approach the issue of safety in a proper way, taking into account probable economic, environmental and social damage. The problem can be solved by introduction of the karst risk level parameter, which permits to take into consideration constructional characteristics of objects (design philosophy, service life, as well as conditions and mechanisms of interaction between the foundation and the construction (sinkholes, local subsidence, karst-suffosion deformations, etc.. The importance of risk reduction is highlighted by current Russian Federal laws. Depending on karst risk level adequate karst-protection should be performed. For building projects, reduction of karst risk to a permissible level (conventionally equal to 1 is one of the most important research challenges of the karstified territories development, and its solution permits to plan appropriate karst protection measures.

  16. Introduction to cost-effectiveness analysis of risk reduction measures in energy systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1986-07-01

    The aim of this report is to introduce readers to methods of cost-effectiveness analysis and their application in risk reduction, especially in connection with the energy-producing industries. The background to the assessment of risk and the problems in estimating it quantitatively are outlined. The methodology of cost-effectiveness analysis is then described, particular attention being given to the way in which results are derived and the overall use that can be made of them. This is followed by a discussion of quantitative applications and an outline of the methods that may be used to derive estimates both of risk and the cost of reducing it. The use of cost-effectiveness analysis is illustrated in an appendix, which gives as a worked example a case study on the reduction of public risk associated with radioactive releases during normal operation of a PWR. After drawing some general conclusions the report recommends that such analyses should normally be used as an aid to risk management whenever several alternative risk reduction measures are under consideration

  17. Power flow prediction in vibrating systems via model reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xianhui

    This dissertation focuses on power flow prediction in vibrating systems. Reduced order models (ROMs) are built based on rational Krylov model reduction which preserve power flow information in the original systems over a specified frequency band. Stiffness and mass matrices of the ROMs are obtained by projecting the original system matrices onto the subspaces spanned by forced responses. A matrix-free algorithm is designed to construct ROMs directly from the power quantities at selected interpolation frequencies. Strategies for parallel implementation of the algorithm via message passing interface are proposed. The quality of ROMs is iteratively refined according to the error estimate based on residual norms. Band capacity is proposed to provide a priori estimate of the sizes of good quality ROMs. Frequency averaging is recast as ensemble averaging and Cauchy distribution is used to simplify the computation. Besides model reduction for deterministic systems, details of constructing ROMs for parametric and nonparametric random systems are also presented. Case studies have been conducted on testbeds from Harwell-Boeing collections. Input and coupling power flow are computed for the original systems and the ROMs. Good agreement is observed in all cases.

  18. Reduction of collisional-radiative models for transient, atomic plasmas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abrantes, Richard June; Karagozian, Ann; Bilyeu, David; Le, Hai

    2017-10-01

    Interactions between plasmas and any radiation field, whether by lasers or plasma emissions, introduce many computational challenges. One of these computational challenges involves resolving the atomic physics, which can influence other physical phenomena in the radiated system. In this work, a collisional-radiative (CR) model with reduction capabilities is developed to capture the atomic physics at a reduced computational cost. Although the model is made with any element in mind, the model is currently supplemented by LANL's argon database, which includes the relevant collisional and radiative processes for all of the ionic stages. Using the detailed data set as the true solution, reduction mechanisms in the form of Boltzmann grouping, uniform grouping, and quasi-steady-state (QSS), are implemented to compare against the true solution. Effects on the transient plasma stemming from the grouping methods are compared. Distribution A: Approved for public release; unlimited distribution, PA (Public Affairs) Clearance Number 17449. This work was supported by the Air Force Office of Scientific Research (AFOSR), Grant Number 17RQCOR463 (Dr. Jason Marshall).

  19. Multiple models guide strategies for agricultural nutrient reductions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scavia, Donald; Kalcic, Margaret; Muenich, Rebecca Logsdon; Read, Jennifer; Aloysius, Noel; Bertani, Isabella; Boles, Chelsie; Confesor, Remegio; DePinto, Joseph; Gildow, Marie; Martin, Jay; Redder, Todd; Robertson, Dale M.; Sowa, Scott P.; Wang, Yu-Chen; Yen, Haw

    2017-01-01

    In response to degraded water quality, federal policy makers in the US and Canada called for a 40% reduction in phosphorus (P) loads to Lake Erie, and state and provincial policy makers in the Great Lakes region set a load-reduction target for the year 2025. Here, we configured five separate SWAT (US Department of Agriculture's Soil and Water Assessment Tool) models to assess load reduction strategies for the agriculturally dominated Maumee River watershed, the largest P source contributing to toxic algal blooms in Lake Erie. Although several potential pathways may achieve the target loads, our results show that any successful pathway will require large-scale implementation of multiple practices. For example, one successful pathway involved targeting 50% of row cropland that has the highest P loss in the watershed with a combination of three practices: subsurface application of P fertilizers, planting cereal rye as a winter cover crop, and installing buffer strips. Achieving these levels of implementation will require local, state/provincial, and federal agencies to collaborate with the private sector to set shared implementation goals and to demand innovation and honest assessments of water quality-related programs, policies, and partnerships.

  20. 41 CFR 102-80.55 - Are Federal agencies responsible for managing the execution of risk reduction projects?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... Management Risks and Risk Reduction Strategies § 102-80.55 Are Federal agencies responsible for managing the... 41 Public Contracts and Property Management 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Are Federal agencies responsible for managing the execution of risk reduction projects? 102-80.55 Section 102-80.55 Public...

  1. Effectiveness of a fall-risk reduction programme for inpatient rehabilitation after stroke.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goljar, Nika; Globokar, Daniel; Puzić, Nataša; Kopitar, Natalija; Vrabič, Maja; Ivanovski, Matic; Vidmar, Gaj

    2016-09-01

    To evaluate effectiveness of fall-risk-assessment-based fall prevention for stroke rehabilitation inpatients. A consecutive series of 232 patients admitted for the first time to a subacute stroke-rehabilitation ward during 2010-2011 was studied in detail. The Assessment Sheet for Fall Prediction in Stroke Inpatients (ASFPSI by Nakagawa et al.) was used to assess fall-risk upon admission. Association of ASFPSI score and patient characteristics with actual falls was statistically tested. Yearly incidence of falls per 1000 hospital days (HD) was retrospectively audited for the 2006-2014 period to evaluate effectiveness of fall-risk reduction measures. The observed incidence of falls over the detailed-study-period was 3.0/1000 HD; 39% of the fallers fell during the first week after admission. ASFPSI score was not significantly associated with falls. Longer hospital stay, left body-side affected and non-extreme FIM score (55-101) were associated with higher odds of fall. Introduction of fall-risk reduction measures followed by compulsory fall-risk assessment lead to incidence of falls dropping from 7.1/1000 HD in 2006 to 2.8/1000 HD in 2011 and remaining at that level until 2014. The fall-risk-assessment-based measures appear to have led to decreasing falls risk among post-stroke rehabilitation inpatients classified as being at high risk of falls. The fall prevention programme as a whole was successful. Patients with non-extreme level of functional independence should receive enhanced fall prevention. Implications for Rehabilitation Recognising the fall risk upon the patient's admission is essential for preventing falls in rehabilitation wards. Assessing the fall risk is a team tasks and combines information from various sources. Assessing fall risk in stroke patients using the assessment sheet by Nakagawa et al. immediately upon admission systematically draws attention to the risk of falls in each individual patient.

  2. What if Dutch investors started worrying about flood risk? Implications for disaster risk reduction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Husby, T.G.; Mechler, R.; Jongman, B.

    2016-01-01

    Increasingly, roles and responsibilities of the public sector in flood risk management are receiving attention in research and policy. Part of the debate suggests that allocating risk to the private sector increases efficiency as it promotes individual adaptation, thereby reducing the impact if a

  3. Disc volume reduction with percutaneous nucleoplasty in an animal model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard Kasch

    Full Text Available STUDY DESIGN: We assessed volume following nucleoplasty disc decompression in lower lumbar spines from cadaveric pigs using 7.1Tesla magnetic resonance imaging (MRI. PURPOSE: To investigate coblation-induced volume reductions as a possible mechanism underlying nucleoplasty. METHODS: We assessed volume following nucleoplastic disc decompression in pig spines using 7.1-Tesla MRI. Volumetry was performed in lumbar discs of 21 postmortem pigs. A preoperative image data set was obtained, volume was determined, and either disc decompression or placebo therapy was performed in a randomized manner. Group 1 (nucleoplasty group was treated according to the usual nucleoplasty protocol with coblation current applied to 6 channels for 10 seconds each in an application field of 360°; in group 2 (placebo group the same procedure was performed but without coblation current. After the procedure, a second data set was generated and volumes calculated and matched with the preoperative measurements in a blinded manner. To analyze the effectiveness of nucleoplasty, volumes between treatment and placebo groups were compared. RESULTS: The average preoperative nucleus volume was 0.994 ml (SD: 0.298 ml. In the nucleoplasty group (n = 21 volume was reduced by an average of 0.087 ml (SD: 0.110 ml or 7.14%. In the placebo group (n = 21 volume was increased by an average of 0.075 ml (SD: 0.075 ml or 8.94%. The average nucleoplasty-induced volume reduction was 0.162 ml (SD: 0.124 ml or 16.08%. Volume reduction in lumbar discs was significant in favor of the nucleoplasty group (p<0.0001. CONCLUSIONS: Our study demonstrates that nucleoplasty has a volume-reducing effect on the lumbar nucleus pulposus in an animal model. Furthermore, we show the volume reduction to be a coblation effect of nucleoplasty in porcine discs.

  4. Risk reduction in road and rail LPG transportation bij passive fire protection

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Molag e.a., M. (Menso)

    2009-01-01

    The potential reduction of risk in LPG (Liquified Petroleum Gas) road transport due to the adoption of passive fire protectionswas investigated. Experimental data available for small scale vessels fully engulfed by a fire were extended to real scale road and rail tankers through a finite elements

  5. Disaster risk reduction capacity assessment for precarious settlements in Guatemala City.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miles, Scott B; Green, Rebekah A; Svekla, Walter

    2012-07-01

    This study presents findings of an institutional capacity analysis of urban disaster risk reduction for informal settlements in the Guatemala Metropolitan Region. It uses a resource access perspective of vulnerability, actor-network theory, and qualitative data collection. The analysis reveals that there is interest in disaster risk reduction for the informal settlements; however, there is little in the way of direct financial or oversight relationships between informal settlement residents and all other actors. Respondents observed that informal settlements would probably remain inhabited; thus, there is a need for disaster risk reduction within these settlements. Disaster risk reduction capacity for informal settlements exists and can be further leveraged, as long as steps are taken to ensure appropriate access to and control of resources and oversight. Further, the nascent institutional arrangements should be strengthened through increased communication and coordination between actors, a decentralization of oversight and financial relationships, and mediation of identified resource conflicts. © 2012 The Author(s). Journal compilation © Overseas Development Institute, 2012.

  6. Children with Disabilities in Disability-Inclusive Disaster Risk Reduction: Focussing on School Settings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ronoh, Steve; Gaillard, J. C.; Marlowe, Jay

    2017-01-01

    Every year, worldwide, disasters affect approximately seven million children with disabilities, highlighting their potential vulnerability. Although there is a growing move internationally to promote the rights of children with disabilities, they still receive little attention from disaster risk reduction (DRR) researchers and policy makers. They…

  7. Combining Primary Prevention and Risk Reduction Approaches in Sexual Assault Protection Programming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menning, Chadwick; Holtzman, Mellisa

    2015-01-01

    Objective: The object of this study is to extend prior evaluations of Elemental, a sexual assault protection program that combines primary prevention and risk reduction strategies within a single program. Participants and Methods: During 2012 and 2013, program group and control group students completed pretest, posttest, and 6-week and 6-month…

  8. Pure meat – public perceptions of risk reduction strategies in meat production

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Korzen, Sara Marie; Sandøe, Peter; Lassen, Jesper

    2011-01-01

    generally have an aversion to risk reduction strategies. Some variation was found, however, in the rejection of the strategies. Thus, more acceptable strategies are characterised by a low degree of technological interference, and by being close to the consumer’s experience in everyday life and/or familiar...

  9. Ready for the Storm: Education for Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kagawa, Fumiyo; Selby, David

    2012-01-01

    Incidences of disaster and climate change impacts are rising globally. Disaster risk reduction and climate change education are two educational responses to present and anticipated increases in the severity and frequency of hazards. They share significant complementarities and potential synergies, the latter as yet largely unexploited. Three…

  10. Education for disaster risk reduction : linking theory with practice in Ghana´s basic schools

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Apronti, Priscilla; Saito, Osamu; Otsuki, K.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/306279258; Kranjac-Berisavljevic, Gordana

    2015-01-01

    Current understanding of disaster risk reduction (DRR) concurs that, when provided the right education, children have the potential to reduce their own vulnerability and the vulnerability of others in their community. What, then, comprises the right education for DRR? Research has established the

  11. Evaluation of a Peer-Led Drug Abuse Risk Reduction Project for Runaway/Homeless Youths.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fors, Stuart W.; Jarvis, Sara

    1995-01-01

    Evaluates the Drug Prevention in Youth risk reduction program that was implemented in shelters for runaway/homeless youths in the southeastern United States. An evaluation strategy was developed allowing for comparisons between peer-led, adult-led and nonintervention groups. Well-trained and motivated peer/near-peer leaders made particularly…

  12. Environmental Assessment: Bird Strike Risk Reduction at Laughlin Air Force Base, Texas

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-01-01

    mglkg in rats, 291 - 609 mglkg in mice, > 1000 mglkg in sheep , > 100 mglkg in dogs and > 1000 mglkg in rabbits (Pesticide Residues in Food-1987... vineyards . Wildl. Soc. Bull. 21:47-51. LAFB Strike Risk Reduction EA - 39 Gaines, T.B. 1969. Acute toxicity of pesticides. Toxicol. Appl. Pharmacol

  13. Risk reduction in road and rail LPG transportation by passive fire protection

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Paltrinieri, N.; Landucci, G.; Molag, M.; Bonvicini, S.; Spadoni, G.; Cozzani, V.

    2009-01-01

    The potential reduction of risk in LPG (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) road transport due to the adoption of passive fire protections was investigated. Experimental data available for small scale vessels fully engulfed by a fire were extended to real scale road and rail tankers through a finite elements

  14. Valuing Mortality Risk Reductions for Environmental Policy: A White Paper (1999)

    Science.gov (United States)

    This white paper addresses current and recent U.S. EPA practices regarding the valuation of mortality risk reductions, focusing especially on empirical estimates of the “value of a statistical life” (VSL) from stated preference and hedonic wage studies.

  15. The Differential Effects of Social Media Sites for Promoting Cancer Risk Reduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lauckner, Carolyn; Whitten, Pamela

    2016-09-01

    Social media are potentially valuable tools for disseminating cancer education messages, but the differential effects of various sites on persuasive outcomes are unknown. In an effort to inform future health promotion, this research tested the effects of Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, and blogs for delivering a cancer risk reduction message. Using an experimental design, participants were randomly placed in several conditions that delivered the same message but with different forms of social media. Effects on comprehension and attitudes were examined, as they are important variables in the behavior change process. YouTube led to higher comprehension and stronger attitudes toward cancer risk reduction than Twitter, but there were no differences between other sites. Additionally, YouTube led to stronger attitudes toward cancer risk reduction as compared to Facebook, but not any other sites. These results demonstrate that, even if the message is kept constant, the form of social media used to deliver content can have an effect on persuasive outcomes. More research is needed to determine the mechanisms behind the differences found, however. Altogether, this line of research is valuable for any individuals seeking to use social media for health promotion purposes and could have direct implications for the development of cancer risk reduction campaigns.

  16. Communicating risk using absolute risk reduction or prolongation of life formats

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harmsen, Charlotte Gry; Kristiansen, Ivar Sønbø; Larsen, Pia Veldt

    2014-01-01

    . The COMRADE questionnaire was used to measure patients' confidence in their decision and satisfaction with the risk communication. RESULTS: Of the 240 patients included for analyses, 112 were allocated to POL information and 128 to ARR. Patients redeeming a statin prescription totalled six (5.4%) when...... informed using POL, and 32 (25.0%) when using ARR. The level of confidence in decision and satisfaction with risk communication did not differ between the risk formats. CONCLUSION: Patients redeemed statin prescriptions less often when their GP communicated treatment effectiveness using POL compared......BACKGROUND: It is important that patients are well-informed about risks and benefits of therapies to help them decide whether to accept medical therapy. Different numerical formats can be used in risk communication but It remains unclear how the different formats affect decisions made by real...

  17. MODELING CREDIT RISK THROUGH CREDIT SCORING

    OpenAIRE

    Adrian Cantemir CALIN; Oana Cristina POPOVICI

    2014-01-01

    Credit risk governs all financial transactions and it is defined as the risk of suffering a loss due to certain shifts in the credit quality of a counterpart. Credit risk literature gravitates around two main modeling approaches: the structural approach and the reduced form approach. In addition to these perspectives, credit risk assessment has been conducted through a series of techniques such as credit scoring models, which form the traditional approach. This paper examines the evolution of...

  18. Results and assessment of participation of VUPEK in coordinated research project of the IAEA ''Comparison of cost-effectiveness of risk reduction among different energy systems''

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kadlec, J.; Horacek, P.

    1989-01-01

    The results and conclusions are summarized of the research programme ''Comparison of cost-effectiveness of risk reduction among different energy systems'' co-ordinated in 1983 to 1988 by the International Atomic Energy Agency. Institutes in 18 member states were involved which performed 33 case studies in the field of risk reduction in various power systems or their parts. A comparison with cost-effectiveness of risk reduction in other fields was made as well. The health risks (occupational, those of population) and the environmental risks were evaluated. The case studies cover various stages of the decision-making process and various decision makers. The solution resulted in 5 methodological studies and 16 models. 11 case studies and 1 methodological study were conducted by the Research Institute of the Fuel and Energy Complex. The experiences obtained, the questions so far unanswered and recommendations for those who will perform similar studies are given. (author). 1 fig., 2 tabs., 3 refs

  19. Is there evidence showing that salt intake reduction reduces cardiovascular morbidity and mortality risk?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando Lanas

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available A recent systematic review of Cochrane collaboration about the effect of reducing dietary salt concluded that “there is still insufficient power to exclude clinically important effects of reduced dietary salt on mortality or cardiovascular morbidity in normotensive or hypertensive populations”. This conclusion has generated an important debate, because the estimation that salt reduction can prevent 24% of strokes and 18% of myocardial infarctions has decided the health authorities of several nations to implement salt consumption reduction programs. The review of ecological studies and clinical trials allow to conclude that a reduction in salt consumption reduces blood pressure and methodological well conducted cohort studies has shown that cardiovascular events risk decreases progressively with lower levels of blood pressure. Combining this two finding we can assume that population should benefice from a decrease on salt consumption although there are no studies that shown a reduction in cardiovascular events in population with high sodium intake when dietary salt is reduced.

  20. The role of service learning in teaching and research for disaster-risk reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suckale, J.; Saiyed, Z.; Alvisyahrin, T.; Hilley, G. E.; Muhari, A.; Zoback, M. L. C.; Truebe, S.

    2016-12-01

    An important motivation for natural-hazards research is to reduce threats posed by natural disasters to at-risk communities. Yet, we rarely teach students how research may be used to construct implementable solutions that reduce disaster risk. The goal of this contribution is to evaluate the potential of service learning to impart students with both the scientific background and the skills necessary to navigate real-world constraints of disaster risk reduction. We present results from a service-learning class taught at Stanford in the Winter quarter of 2016 in collaboration with the Indonesian Ministry of Marine Affairs and Fisheries and Syiah Kuala University, Banda Aceh. The main deliverable of the class was a final project in which students developed a specific idea of how to contribute to tsunami-risk reduction in Indonesia. A common critique of the service-learning approach posits that it may implicitly embed social and political perspectives within risk-reduction strategies that may be inappropriate within a particular culture. We attempted to avoid this problem using three strategies: First, we paired students from Stanford with students at Syiah Kuala University, Banda Aceh, to facilitate a close dialogue. Second, the Ministry of Marine Affairs and Fisheries provided a list of current risk-reduction strategies without requiring students to contribute to one specific project to minimally precondition project suggestions. Third, our community partners provided ongoing feedback on the scope and feasibility of the proposed projects and students were assessed based on their ability to integrate the feedback. Preliminary results from our class suggest significant promise for a service-learning approach to teaching disaster-risk reduction. There was substantial student interest in service learning, particularly among undergraduates. Pre-and post-assessment surveys showed that over 75% of students adjusted previous notions about disaster-risk reduction during the

  1. Behavioral Couples Treatment for Substance Use Disorder: Secondary Effects on the Reduction of Risk for Child Abuse.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelley, Michelle L; Bravo, Adrian J; Braitman, Abby L; Lawless, Adrienne K; Lawrence, Hannah R

    2016-03-01

    Risk for child abuse was examined prior to and after behavioral couples treatment (BCT) among 61 couples in which one or both parents were diagnosed with substance use disorder (SUD). All couples were residing with one or more school-age children. Mothers and fathers completed pretreatment, post-intervention, and 6-month post-intervention follow-up assessments. Results of piecewise latent growth models tested whether the number of BCT sessions attended and number of days abstinent from drugs and alcohol influenced relationship satisfaction and its growth over time, and in turn if relationship satisfaction and change in relationship satisfaction influenced risk for child abuse. For both mothers and fathers, attending more BCT sessions lead to a direct increase in relationship satisfaction, which in turn led to stronger reductions in risk for child abuse. This effect was maintained from the post-intervention through the 6-month post-intervention follow-up. For fathers, number of days abstinent significantly influenced reduction in child abuse potential at post-intervention via relationship satisfaction. This indirect effect was not present for mothers. The overall benefits of BCT on mothers' and fathers' risk for child abuse suggest that BCT may have promise in reducing risk for child abuse among couples in which one or both parents have SUD. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Navier slip model of drag reduction by Leidenfrost vapor layers

    KAUST Repository

    Berry, Joseph D.; Vakarelski, Ivan Uriev; Chan, Derek Y. C.; Thoroddsen, Sigurdur T

    2017-01-01

    Recent experiments found that a hot solid sphere that is able to sustain a stable Leidenfrost vapor layer in a liquid exhibits significant drag reduction during free fall. The variation of the drag coefficient with Reynolds number deviates substantially from the characteristic drag crisis behavior at high Reynolds numbers. Measurements based on liquids of different viscosities show that the onset of the drag crisis depends on the viscosity ratio of the vapor to the liquid. Here we attempt to characterize the complexity of the Leidenfrost vapor layer with respect to its variable thickness and possible vapor circulation within, in terms of the Navier slip model that is defined by a slip length. Such a model can facilitate tangential flow and thereby alter the behavior of the boundary layer. Direct numerical and large eddy simulations of flow past a sphere at moderate to high Reynolds numbers (102≤Re≤4×104) are employed to quantify comparisons with experimental results, including the drag coefficient and the form of the downstream wake on the sphere. This provides a simple one parameter characterization of the drag reduction phenomenon due to a stable vapor layer that envelops a solid body.

  3. Navier slip model of drag reduction by Leidenfrost vapor layers

    KAUST Repository

    Berry, Joseph D.

    2017-10-17

    Recent experiments found that a hot solid sphere that is able to sustain a stable Leidenfrost vapor layer in a liquid exhibits significant drag reduction during free fall. The variation of the drag coefficient with Reynolds number deviates substantially from the characteristic drag crisis behavior at high Reynolds numbers. Measurements based on liquids of different viscosities show that the onset of the drag crisis depends on the viscosity ratio of the vapor to the liquid. Here we attempt to characterize the complexity of the Leidenfrost vapor layer with respect to its variable thickness and possible vapor circulation within, in terms of the Navier slip model that is defined by a slip length. Such a model can facilitate tangential flow and thereby alter the behavior of the boundary layer. Direct numerical and large eddy simulations of flow past a sphere at moderate to high Reynolds numbers (102≤Re≤4×104) are employed to quantify comparisons with experimental results, including the drag coefficient and the form of the downstream wake on the sphere. This provides a simple one parameter characterization of the drag reduction phenomenon due to a stable vapor layer that envelops a solid body.

  4. Synergising Public Health Concepts with the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction: A Conceptual Glossary.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phibbs, Suzanne; Kenney, Christine; Severinsen, Christina; Mitchell, Jon; Hughes, Roger

    2016-12-14

    The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (2015) is a global strategy for addressing disaster risk and resilience that has been ratified by member countries of the United Nations. Its guiding principles emphasise building resilience through inter-sectoral collaboration, as well as partnerships that facilitate community empowerment and address underlying risk factors. Both public health and the emergency management sector face similar challenges related to developing and implementing strategies that involve structural change, facilitating community resilience and addressing individual risk factors. Familiarity with public health principles enables an understanding of the holistic approach to risk reduction that is outlined within the Sendai Framework. We present seven concepts that resonate with contemporary public health practice, namely: the social determinants of health; inequality and inequity; the inverse care law; community-based and community development approaches; hard to reach communities and services; the prevention paradox; and the inverse prevention law. These ideas from public health provide a useful conceptual base for the "new" agenda in disaster risk management that underpins the 2015 Sendai Framework. The relevance of these ideas to disaster risk management and research is illustrated through drawing on the Sendai Framework, disaster literature and exemplars from the 2010-2011 earthquakes in Canterbury, New Zealand.

  5. Synergising Public Health Concepts with the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction: A Conceptual Glossary

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suzanne Phibbs

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (2015 is a global strategy for addressing disaster risk and resilience that has been ratified by member countries of the United Nations. Its guiding principles emphasise building resilience through inter-sectoral collaboration, as well as partnerships that facilitate community empowerment and address underlying risk factors. Both public health and the emergency management sector face similar challenges related to developing and implementing strategies that involve structural change, facilitating community resilience and addressing individual risk factors. Familiarity with public health principles enables an understanding of the holistic approach to risk reduction that is outlined within the Sendai Framework. We present seven concepts that resonate with contemporary public health practice, namely: the social determinants of health; inequality and inequity; the inverse care law; community-based and community development approaches; hard to reach communities and services; the prevention paradox; and the inverse prevention law. These ideas from public health provide a useful conceptual base for the ”new” agenda in disaster risk management that underpins the 2015 Sendai Framework. The relevance of these ideas to disaster risk management and research is illustrated through drawing on the Sendai Framework, disaster literature and exemplars from the 2010–2011 earthquakes in Canterbury, New Zealand.

  6. Model Reduction and Coarse-Graining Approaches for Multiscale Phenomena

    CERN Document Server

    Gorban, Alexander N; Theodoropoulos, Constantinos; Kazantzis, Nikolaos K; Öttinger, Hans Christian

    2006-01-01

    Model reduction and coarse-graining are important in many areas of science and engineering. How does a system with many degrees of freedom become one with fewer? How can a reversible micro-description be adapted to the dissipative macroscopic model? These crucial questions, as well as many other related problems, are discussed in this book. Specific areas of study include dynamical systems, non-equilibrium statistical mechanics, kinetic theory, hydrodynamics and mechanics of continuous media, (bio)chemical kinetics, nonlinear dynamics, nonlinear control, nonlinear estimation, and particulate systems from various branches of engineering. The generic nature and the power of the pertinent conceptual, analytical and computational frameworks helps eliminate some of the traditional language barriers, which often unnecessarily impede scientific progress and the interaction of researchers between disciplines such as physics, chemistry, biology, applied mathematics and engineering. All contributions are authored by ex...

  7. The effectiveness of coral reefs for coastal hazard risk reduction and adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrario, Filippo; Beck, Michael W.; Storlazzi, Curt D.; Micheli, Fiorenza; Shepard, Christine C.; Airoldi, Laura

    2014-01-01

    The world’s coastal zones are experiencing rapid development and an increase in storms and flooding. These hazards put coastal communities at heightened risk, which may increase with habitat loss. Here we analyse globally the role and cost effectiveness of coral reefs in risk reduction. Meta-analyses reveal that coral reefs provide substantial protection against natural hazards by reducing wave energy by an average of 97%. Reef crests alone dissipate most of this energy (86%). There are 100 million or more people who may receive risk reduction benefits from reefs or bear hazard mitigation and adaptation costs if reefs are degraded. We show that coral reefs can provide comparable wave attenuation benefits to artificial defences such as breakwaters, and reef defences can be enhanced cost effectively. Reefs face growing threats yet there is opportunity to guide adaptation and hazard mitigation investments towards reef restoration to strengthen this first line of coastal defence.

  8. A comparison of models for risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kellerer, A.M.; Jing Chen

    1993-01-01

    Various mathematical models have been used to represent the dependence of excess cancer risk on dose, age and time since exposure. For solid cancers, i.e. all cancers except leukaemia, the so-called relative risk model is usually employed. However, there can be quite different relative risk models. The most usual model for the quantification of excess tumour rate among the atomic bomb survivors has been a dependence of the relative risk on age at exposure, but it has been shown recently that an age attained model can be equally applied, to represent the observations among the atomic bomb survivors. The differences between the models and their implications are explained. It is also shown that the age attained model is similar to the approaches that have been used in the analysis of lung cancer incidence among radon exposed miners. A more unified approach to modelling of radiation risks can thus be achieved. (3 figs.)

  9. Competing Risks and Multistate Models with R

    CERN Document Server

    Beyersmann, Jan; Schumacher, Martin

    2012-01-01

    This book covers competing risks and multistate models, sometimes summarized as event history analysis. These models generalize the analysis of time to a single event (survival analysis) to analysing the timing of distinct terminal events (competing risks) and possible intermediate events (multistate models). Both R and multistate methods are promoted with a focus on nonparametric methods.

  10. Modeling Research Project Risks with Fuzzy Maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bodea, Constanta Nicoleta; Dascalu, Mariana Iuliana

    2009-01-01

    The authors propose a risks evaluation model for research projects. The model is based on fuzzy inference. The knowledge base for fuzzy process is built with a causal and cognitive map of risks. The map was especially developed for research projects, taken into account their typical lifecycle. The model was applied to an e-testing research…

  11. Beyond anal sex: sexual practices associated with HIV risk reduction among men who have sex with men in Boston, Massachusetts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reisner, Sari L; Mimiaga, Matthew J; Skeer, Margie; Mayer, Kenneth H

    2009-07-01

    Men who have sex with men (MSM) continue to bear a disproportionate HIV and sexually transmitted disease (STD) burden. The current study examined the frequency and associations of sexual risk reduction behaviors among a sample of MSM in the greater Boston, Massachusetts area. One hundred eighty-nine MSM completed a one-time behavioral and psychosocial assessment between March 2006 and May 2007. Logistic regression procedures examined the association of demographic, psychosocial, and behavioral factors with risk reduction practices. Twenty percent of the sample reported rimming, mutual masturbation, digital penetration, using sex toys, or 100% condom use as a means to reduce their risk of acquiring or transmitting HIV in the prior 12 months. In bivariate analyses, risk reducers were more likely to disclose their MSM status (i.e., be "out"; odds ratio [OR] = 3.64; p < 0.05), and report oral sex with a condom in the prior 12 months (OR = 4.85; p < 0.01). They were less likely to report: depression (Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale [CES-D] score 16+; OR = 0.48; p < 0.05), a history of one or more sexually transmitted diseases (STDs; OR = 0.40; p < 0.05), and meeting sexual partners at public cruising areas (OR = 0.32; p < 0.01). In a multivariable model, risk reducers were less likely to report: alcohol use during sex (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 0.33; p < 0.05), depression (CESD score 16+; AOR = 0.32; p < 0.05), or meeting sexual partners at public cruising areas (AOR = 0.30; p < 0.05), or via the Internet (AOR = 0.12; p < 0.05) in the previous 12 months. Identifying and understanding such factors associated with risk reduction behaviors may be important to consider in designing effective prevention interventions to promote sexual health for MSM.

  12. Soft-sensing model of temperature for aluminum reduction cell on improved twin support vector regression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Tao

    2018-06-01

    The complexity of aluminum electrolysis process leads the temperature for aluminum reduction cells hard to measure directly. However, temperature is the control center of aluminum production. To solve this problem, combining some aluminum plant's practice data, this paper presents a Soft-sensing model of temperature for aluminum electrolysis process on Improved Twin Support Vector Regression (ITSVR). ITSVR eliminates the slow learning speed of Support Vector Regression (SVR) and the over-fit risk of Twin Support Vector Regression (TSVR) by introducing a regularization term into the objective function of TSVR, which ensures the structural risk minimization principle and lower computational complexity. Finally, the model with some other parameters as auxiliary variable, predicts the temperature by ITSVR. The simulation result shows Soft-sensing model based on ITSVR has short time-consuming and better generalization.

  13. A qualitative descriptive study of risk reduction for coronary disease among the Hong Kong Chinese.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, Choi Wan; Lopez, Violeta

    2014-01-01

    Achieving optimal control and reduction in coronary heart disease (CHD) risks in Hong Kong (HK) remains significant and requires exploring. This article addresses the ability to reduce CHD risks among the HK Chinese. Through secondary analysis, a qualitative descriptive design using focus group interviews and content analysis were adopted. Older and younger adults were invited for the study. An interview schedule was used to guide discussions during focus group interviews. Four categories emerged from the data: planning of health actions, control of risk-reducing behavior, perceived opportunities for understanding CHD, and chest pain appraisal. Local culture and population needs play a central role in disease perception and prevention. The findings are essential to target strategies for initiating health acts for younger adults and establish public education resources that underscore understanding of CHD risk, symptom recognition, and disease management, particularly among those middle-aged and older people at high risk and with the diseased populations. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  14. Evaluation of severe accident risks and the potential for risk reduction: Grand Gulf, Unit 1. Draft for comment, February 1987

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Amos, C N [Technadyne Engineering Consultants, Inc., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Benjamin, A S; Kunsman, D M; Williams, D C [Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM (United States); Boyd, G J; Lewis, S R [Safety and Reliability Optimization Services, Inc., Knoxville, TN (United States); Smith, L N [Science Applications International Corporation, Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    1987-04-01

    The Severe Accident Risk Reduction Program (SARRP) has completed a rebaselining of the risks to the public from a boiling water reactor with a Mark III containment (Grand Gulf, Unit 1). Emphasis was placed on determining the magnitude and character of the uncertainties, rather than focusing on a point estimate. The risk-reduction potential of a set of proposed safety option backfits was also studied, and their costs and benefits were also evaluated. It was found that the risks from internal events are generally low relative to previous studies; for example, most of the uncertainty range is lower than the point estimate of risk for the Peach Bottom plant in the Reactor Safety Study (RSS). However, certain unresolved issues cause the top of the uncertainty band to appear at a level that is comparable with the RSS point estimate. These issues include the diesel generator failure rate, iodine and cesium revolatilization after vessel breach and the possibility of reactor vessel pedestal failure caused by core debris attack. Some of the postulated safety options appear to be potentially cost effective for the Grand Gulf power plant, particularly when onsite accidents costs are included in the evaluation of benefits. Principally these include procedural modifications and relatively inexpensive hardware additions to insure core cooling in the event of a station blackout. This work supports the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's assessment of severe accidents in NUREG-1150. (author)

  15. Risk Modelling for Passages in Approach Channel

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leszek Smolarek

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Methods of multivariate statistics, stochastic processes, and simulation methods are used to identify and assess the risk measures. This paper presents the use of generalized linear models and Markov models to study risks to ships along the approach channel. These models combined with simulation testing are used to determine the time required for continuous monitoring of endangered objects or period at which the level of risk should be verified.

  16. Modeling for operational event risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sattison, M.B.

    1997-01-01

    The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission has been using risk models to evaluate the risk significance of operational events in U.S. commercial nuclear power plants for more seventeen years. During that time, the models have evolved in response to the advances in risk assessment technology and insights gained with experience. Evaluation techniques fall into two categories, initiating event assessments and condition assessments. The models used for these analyses have become uniquely specialized for just this purpose

  17. Development and Validation of a Model to Predict Absolute Vascular Risk Reduction by Moderate-Intensity Statin Therapy in Individual Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: The Anglo Scandinavian Cardiac Outcomes Trial, Antihypertensive and Lipid-Lowering Treatment to Prevent Heart Attack Trial, and Collaborative Atorvastatin Diabetes Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaasenbrood, Lotte; Poulter, Neil R; Sever, Peter S; Colhoun, Helen M; Livingstone, Shona J; Boekholdt, S Matthijs; Pressel, Sara L; Davis, Barry R; van der Graaf, Yolanda; Visseren, Frank L J

    2016-05-01

    In this study, we aimed to translate the average relative effect of statin therapy from trial data to the individual patient with type 2 diabetes mellitus by developing and validating a model to predict individualized absolute risk reductions (ARR) of cardiovascular events. Data of 2725 patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus from the Lipid Lowering Arm of the Anglo Scandinavian Cardiac Outcomes Trial (ASCOT-LLA) study (atorvastatin 10 mg versus placebo) were used for model derivation. The model was based on 8 clinical predictors including treatment allocation (statin/placebo). Ten-year individualized ARR on major cardiovascular events by statin therapy were calculated for each patient by subtracting the estimated on-treatment risk from the estimated off-treatment risk. Predicted 10-year ARR by statin therapy was 4% (median ARR, 3.2%; interquartile range, 2.5%-4.3%; 95% confidence interval for 3.2% ARR, -1.4% to 6.8%). Addition of treatment interactions did not improve model performance. Therefore, the wide distribution in ARR was a consequence of the underlying distribution in cardiovascular risk enrolled in these trials. External validation of the model was performed in data from the Antihypertensive and Lipid-Lowering Treatment to Prevent Heart Attack Trial (ALLHAT-LLT; pravastatin 40 mg versus usual care) and Collaborative Atorvastatin Diabetes Study (CARDS; atorvastatin 10 mg versus placebo) of 3878 and 2838 patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus, respectively. Model calibration was adequate in both external data sets, discrimination was moderate (ALLHAT-LLT: c-statistics, 0.64 [95% confidence interval, 0.61-0.67] and CARDS: 0.68 [95% confidence interval, 0.64-0.72]). ARRs of major cardiovascular events by statin therapy can be accurately estimated for individual patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus using a model based on routinely available patient characteristics. There is a wide distribution in ARR that may complement informed decision making. URL: http

  18. MATHEMATICAL RISK ANALYSIS: VIA NICHOLAS RISK MODEL AND BAYESIAN ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anass BAYAGA

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this second part of a two-phased study was to explorethe predictive power of quantitative risk analysis (QRA method andprocess within Higher Education Institution (HEI. The method and process investigated the use impact analysis via Nicholas risk model and Bayesian analysis, with a sample of hundred (100 risk analysts in a historically black South African University in the greater Eastern Cape Province.The first findings supported and confirmed previous literature (KingIII report, 2009: Nicholas and Steyn, 2008: Stoney, 2007: COSA, 2004 that there was a direct relationship between risk factor, its likelihood and impact, certiris paribus. The second finding in relation to either controlling the likelihood or the impact of occurrence of risk (Nicholas risk model was that to have a brighter risk reward, it was important to control the likelihood ofoccurrence of risks as compared with its impact so to have a direct effect on entire University. On the Bayesian analysis, thus third finding, the impact of risk should be predicted along three aspects. These aspects included the human impact (decisions made, the property impact (students and infrastructural based and the business impact. Lastly, the study revealed that although in most business cases, where as business cycles considerably vary dependingon the industry and or the institution, this study revealed that, most impacts in HEI (University was within the period of one academic.The recommendation was that application of quantitative risk analysisshould be related to current legislative framework that affects HEI.

  19. Relative Error Model Reduction via Time-Weighted Balanced Stochastic Singular Perturbation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tahavori, Maryamsadat; Shaker, Hamid Reza

    2012-01-01

    A new mixed method for relative error model reduction of linear time invariant (LTI) systems is proposed in this paper. This order reduction technique is mainly based upon time-weighted balanced stochastic model reduction method and singular perturbation model reduction technique. Compared...... by using the concept and properties of the reciprocal systems. The results are further illustrated by two practical numerical examples: a model of CD player and a model of the atmospheric storm track....

  20. A cooperative reduction model for regional air pollution control in China that considers adverse health effects and pollutant reduction costs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Yujing; Zhao, Laijun; Xue, Jian; Hu, Qingmi; Xu, Xiang; Wang, Hongbo

    2016-12-15

    How to effectively control severe regional air pollution has become a focus of global concern recently. The non-cooperative reduction model (NCRM) is still the main air pollution control pattern in China, but it is both ineffective and costly, because each province must independently fight air pollution. Thus, we proposed a cooperative reduction model (CRM), with the goal of maximizing the reduction in adverse health effects (AHEs) at the lowest cost by encouraging neighboring areas to jointly control air pollution. CRM has two parts: a model of optimal pollutant removal rates using two optimization objectives (maximizing the reduction in AHEs and minimizing pollutant reduction cost) while meeting the regional pollution control targets set by the central government, and a model that allocates the cooperation benefits (i.e., health improvement and cost reduction) among the participants according to their contributions using the Shapley value method. We applied CRM to the case of sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) reduction in Yangtze River Delta region. Based on data from 2003 to 2013, and using mortality due to respiratory and cardiovascular diseases as the health endpoints, CRM saves 437 more lives than NCRM, amounting to 12.1% of the reduction under NCRM. CRM also reduced costs by US $65.8×10 6 compared with NCRM, which is 5.2% of the total cost of NCRM. Thus, CRM performs significantly better than NCRM. Each province obtains significant benefits from cooperation, which can motivate them to actively cooperate in the long term. A sensitivity analysis was performed to quantify the effects of parameter values on the cooperation benefits. Results shown that the CRM is not sensitive to the changes in each province's pollutant carrying capacity and the minimum pollutant removal capacity, but sensitive to the maximum pollutant reduction capacity. Moreover, higher cooperation benefits will be generated when a province's maximum pollutant reduction capacity increases. Copyright

  1. Korean risk assessment model for breast cancer risk prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Boyoung; Ma, Seung Hyun; Shin, Aesun; Chang, Myung-Chul; Choi, Ji-Yeob; Kim, Sungwan; Han, Wonshik; Noh, Dong-Young; Ahn, Sei-Hyun; Kang, Daehee; Yoo, Keun-Young; Park, Sue K

    2013-01-01

    We evaluated the performance of the Gail model for a Korean population and developed a Korean breast cancer risk assessment tool (KoBCRAT) based upon equations developed for the Gail model for predicting breast cancer risk. Using 3,789 sets of cases and controls, risk factors for breast cancer among Koreans were identified. Individual probabilities were projected using Gail's equations and Korean hazard data. We compared the 5-year and lifetime risk produced using the modified Gail model which applied Korean incidence and mortality data and the parameter estimators from the original Gail model with those produced using the KoBCRAT. We validated the KoBCRAT based on the expected/observed breast cancer incidence and area under the curve (AUC) using two Korean cohorts: the Korean Multicenter Cancer Cohort (KMCC) and National Cancer Center (NCC) cohort. The major risk factors under the age of 50 were family history, age at menarche, age at first full-term pregnancy, menopausal status, breastfeeding duration, oral contraceptive usage, and exercise, while those at and over the age of 50 were family history, age at menarche, age at menopause, pregnancy experience, body mass index, oral contraceptive usage, and exercise. The modified Gail model produced lower 5-year risk for the cases than for the controls (p = 0.017), while the KoBCRAT produced higher 5-year and lifetime risk for the cases than for the controls (pKorean women, especially urban women.

  2. Synergies across the natural resources management fields in Southern Africa: Disaster Risk Reduction and One Health

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clara Bocchino

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available For various reasons, Southern Africa may be considered the playground as well as the thinking tank for many theories and practices in the natural resources management field. History has contributed to reshape conservation practices through colonial times, and recent wars have led to the relocation of people from their homelands and the appropriation by people of previously protected areas due to socio-economic pressures. Contemporary practices stemming from sustainable development have not yielded the expected results in resolving critical socio-economic stresses that impact on environmental health. Furthermore, human health has deteriorated in remote rural areas due to the failures of governance systems and the perpetration of non-participatory models for natural resources management, especially conservation. This paper seeks to explore how two relatively new approaches, Disaster Risk Reduction and One Health, can together tap into the theoretical and practical gaps left by previous paradigms in order to instill a sustainable development approach that can benefit both people and natural resources in remote and poor rural areas.

  3. Modeling of detective quantum efficiency considering scatter-reduction devices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Park, Ji Woong; Kim, Dong Woon; Kim, Ho Kyung [Pusan National University, Busan (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    The reduction of signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) cannot be restored and thus has become a severe issue in digital mammography.1 Therefore, antiscatter grids are typically used in mammography. Scatter-cleanup performance of various scatter-reduction devices, such as air gaps,2 linear (1D) or cellular (2D) grids,3, 4 and slot-scanning devices,5 has been extensively investigated by many research groups. In the present time, a digital mammography system with the slotscanning geometry is also commercially available.6 In this study, we theoretically investigate the effect of scattered photons on the detective quantum efficiency (DQE) performance of digital mammography detectors by using the cascaded-systems analysis (CSA) approach. We show a simple DQE formalism describing digital mammography detector systems equipped with scatter reduction devices by regarding the scattered photons as additive noise sources. The LFD increased with increasing PMMA thickness, and the amounts of LFD indicated the corresponding SF. The estimated SFs were 0.13, 0.21, and 0.29 for PMMA thicknesses of 10, 20, and 30 mm, respectively. While the solid line describing the measured MTF for PMMA with 0 mm was the result of least-squares of regression fit using Eq. (14), the other lines were simply resulted from the multiplication of the fit result (for PMMA with 0 mm) with the (1-SF) estimated from the LFDs in the measured MTFs. Spectral noise-power densities over the entire frequency range were not much changed with increasing scatter. On the other hand, the calculation results showed that the spectral noise-power densities increased with increasing scatter. This discrepancy may be explained by that the model developed in this study does not account for the changes in x-ray interaction parameters for varying spectral shapes due to beam hardening with increasing PMMA thicknesses.

  4. Promoting flood risk reduction: The role of insurance in Germany and England

    Science.gov (United States)

    Surminski, Swenja; Thieken, Annegret H.

    2017-10-01

    Improving society's ability to prepare for, respond to and recover from flooding requires integrated, anticipatory flood risk management (FRM). However, most countries still focus their efforts on responding to flooding events if and when they occur rather than addressing their current and future vulnerability to flooding. Flood insurance is one mechanism that could promote a more ex ante approach to risk by supporting risk reduction activities. This paper uses an adapted version of Easton's System Theory to investigate the role of insurance for FRM in Germany and England. We introduce an anticipatory FRM framework, which allows flood insurance to be considered as part of a broader policy field. We analyze if and how flood insurance can catalyze a change toward a more anticipatory approach to FRM. In particular we consider insurance's role in influencing five key components of anticipatory FRM: risk knowledge, prevention through better planning, property-level protection measures, structural protection and preparedness (for response). We find that in both countries FRM is still a reactive, event-driven process, while anticipatory FRM remains underdeveloped. Collaboration between insurers and FRM decision-makers has already been successful, for example in improving risk knowledge and awareness, while in other areas insurance acts as a disincentive for more risk reduction action. In both countries there is evidence that insurance can play a significant role in encouraging anticipatory FRM, but this remains underutilized. Effective collaboration between insurers and government should not be seen as a cost, but as an investment to secure future insurability through flood resilience.

  5. Evaluating two model reduction approaches for large scale hedonic models sensitive to omitted variables and multicollinearity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Panduro, Toke Emil; Thorsen, Bo Jellesmark

    2014-01-01

    Hedonic models in environmental valuation studies have grown in terms of number of transactions and number of explanatory variables. We focus on the practical challenge of model reduction, when aiming for reliable parsimonious models, sensitive to omitted variable bias and multicollinearity. We...

  6. Preoperative risk assessment among women undergoing bilateral prophylactic mastectomy for cancer risk reduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rueth, Natasha M; McMahon, Melissa; Arrington, Amanda K; Swenson, Karen; Leach, Joseph; Tuttle, Todd M

    2011-09-01

    Cancer risk assessment is an important decision-making tool for women considering irreversible risk-reducing surgery. Our objective was to determine the prevalence of BRCA testing among women undergoing bilateral prophylactic mastectomy (BPM) and to review the characteristics of women who choose BPM within a metropolitan setting. We retrospectively reviewed records of women who underwent BPM in the absence of cancer within 2 health care systems that included 5 metropolitan hospitals. Women with invasive carcinoma or ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) were excluded; neither lobular carcinoma in situ (LCIS) nor atypical hyperplasia (AH) were exclusion criteria. We collected demographic information and preoperative screening and risk assessment, BRCA testing, reconstruction, and associated cancer risk-reducing surgery data. We compared women who underwent BRCA testing to those not tested. From January 2002 to July 2009, a total of 71 BPMs were performed. Only 25 women (35.2%) had preoperative BRCA testing; 88% had a BRCA mutation. Compared with tested women, BRCA nontested women were significantly older (39.1 vs. 49.2 years, P < 0.001), had significantly more preoperative biopsies and mammograms and had fewer previous or simultaneous cancer risk-reducing surgery (oophorectomy). Among BRCA nontested women, common indications for BPM were family history of breast cancer (n = 21, 45.6%) or LCIS or AH (n = 16, 34.8%); 9 nontested women (19.6%) chose BPM based on exclusively on cancer-risk anxiety or personal preference. Most women who underwent BPM did not receive preoperative genetic testing. Further studies are needed to corroborate our findings in other geographic regions and practice settings.

  7. Experimental study and modelling of iron ore reduction by hydrogen

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wagner, D.

    2008-01-01

    In an effort to find new ways to drastically reduce the CO 2 emissions from the steel industry (ULCOS project), the reduction of iron ore by pure hydrogen in a shaft furnace was investigated. The work consisted of literature, experimental, and modelling studies. The chemical reaction and its kinetics were analysed on the basis of thermogravimetric experiments and physicochemical characterizations of partially reduced samples. A specific kinetic model was designed, which simulates the successive reactions, the different steps of mass transport, and possible iron sintering, at the particle scale. Finally, a 2-dimensional numerical model of a shaft furnace was developed. It depicts the variation of the solid and gas temperatures and compositions throughout the reactor. One original feature of the model is using the law of additive characteristic times for calculating the reaction rates. This allowed us to handle both the particle and the reactor scale, while keeping reasonable calculation time. From the simulation results, the influence of the process parameters was assessed. Optimal operating conditions were concluded, which reveal the efficiency of the hydrogen process. (author)

  8. NHS health checks through general practice: randomised trial of population cardiovascular risk reduction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cochrane Thomas

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The global burden of the major vascular diseases is projected to rise and to remain the dominant non-communicable disease cluster well into the twenty first century. The Department of Health in England has developed the NHS Health Check service as a policy initiative to reduce population vascular disease risk. The aims of this study were to monitor population changes in cardiovascular disease (CVD risk factors over the first year of the new service and to assess the value of tailored lifestyle support, including motivational interview with ongoing support and referral to other services. Methods Randomised trial comparing NHS Health Check service only with NHS Health Check service plus additional lifestyle support in Stoke on Trent, England. Thirty eight general practices and 601 (365 usual care, 236 additional lifestyle support patients were recruited and randomised independently between September 2009 and February 2010. Changes in population CVD risk between baseline and one year follow-up were compared, using intention-to-treat analysis. The primary outcome was the Framingham 10 year CVD risk score. Secondary outcomes included individual modifiable risk measures and prevalence of individual risk categories. Additional lifestyle support included referral to a lifestyle coach and free sessions as needed for: weight management, physical activity, cook and eat and positive thinking. Results Average population CVD risk decreased from 32.9% to 29.4% (p Conclusions The NHS Health Check service in Stoke on Trent resulted in significant reduction in estimated population CVD risk. There was no evidence of further benefit of the additional lifestyle support services in terms of absolute CVD risk reduction.

  9. Risk prediction and risk reduction in patients with manifest arterial disease

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Goessens, B.M.B.; Goessens, B.M.B.

    2006-01-01

    Risicovoorspelling en risicoverlaging bij patienten met manifest vaatlijden Engelstalig abstract The number of patients with clinical manifest arterial disease is increasing because of the aging of the population. Patients with manifest arterial disease have an increased risk of a new vascular event

  10. Schizophrenia--A High-Risk Factor for Suicides: Clues to Risk Reduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caldwell, Constance B.; Gottesman, Irving I.

    1992-01-01

    Notes that suicide is chief cause of premature death among schizophrenic persons, with lifetime incidence of suicide for patients with schizophrenia at 10-13% compared to general population estimate of 1%. Discusses salient risk factors for suicide in schizophrenics and types of especially vulnerable patients identified by research. Notes that…

  11. A practical approach to assess depression risk and to guide risk reduction strategies in later life

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Almeida, O.P.; Alfonso, H.; Pirkis, J; Kerse, N.; Sim, M.; Flicker, L.; Snowdon, J.; Draper, B.; Byrne, G.; Goldney, R.; Lautenschlager, N.T.; Stocks, N.; Scazufca, M.; Huisman, M.; Araya, R.; Pfaff, J.

    2011-01-01

    Background: Many factors have been associated with the onset and maintenance of depressive symptoms in later life, although this knowledge is yet to be translated into significant health gains for the population. This study gathered information about common modifiable and non-modifiable risk factors

  12. Multiscale model reduction for shale gas transport in fractured media

    KAUST Repository

    Akkutlu, I. Y.

    2016-05-18

    In this paper, we develop a multiscale model reduction technique that describes shale gas transport in fractured media. Due to the pore-scale heterogeneities and processes, we use upscaled models to describe the matrix. We follow our previous work (Akkutlu et al. Transp. Porous Media 107(1), 235–260, 2015), where we derived an upscaled model in the form of generalized nonlinear diffusion model to describe the effects of kerogen. To model the interaction between the matrix and the fractures, we use Generalized Multiscale Finite Element Method (Efendiev et al. J. Comput. Phys. 251, 116–135, 2013, 2015). In this approach, the matrix and the fracture interaction is modeled via local multiscale basis functions. In Efendiev et al. (2015), we developed the GMsFEM and applied for linear flows with horizontal or vertical fracture orientations aligned with a Cartesian fine grid. The approach in Efendiev et al. (2015) does not allow handling arbitrary fracture distributions. In this paper, we (1) consider arbitrary fracture distributions on an unstructured grid; (2) develop GMsFEM for nonlinear flows; and (3) develop online basis function strategies to adaptively improve the convergence. The number of multiscale basis functions in each coarse region represents the degrees of freedom needed to achieve a certain error threshold. Our approach is adaptive in a sense that the multiscale basis functions can be added in the regions of interest. Numerical results for two-dimensional problem are presented to demonstrate the efficiency of proposed approach. © 2016 Springer International Publishing Switzerland

  13. Flood Water Crossing: Laboratory Model Investigations for Water Velocity Reductions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kasnon N.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The occurrence of floods may give a negative impact towards road traffic in terms of difficulties in mobilizing traffic as well as causing damage to the vehicles, which later cause them to be stuck in the traffic and trigger traffic problems. The high velocity of water flows occur when there is no existence of objects capable of diffusing the water velocity on the road surface. The shape, orientation and size of the object to be placed beside the road as a diffuser are important for the effective flow attenuation of water. In order to investigate the water flow, a laboratory experiment was set up and models were constructed to study the flow velocity reduction. The velocity of water before and after passing through the diffuser objects was investigated. This paper focuses on laboratory experiments to determine the flow velocity of the water using sensors before and after passing through two best diffuser objects chosen from a previous flow pattern experiment.

  14. Kantowski-Sachs multidimensional cosmological models and dynamical dimensional reduction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Demianski, M.; Rome Univ.; Golda, Z.A.; Heller, M.; Szydlowski, M.

    1988-01-01

    Einstein's field equations are solved for a multidimensional spacetime (KS) x Tsup(m), where (KS) is a four-dimensional Kantowski-Sachs spacetime and Tsup(m) is an m-dimensional torus. Among all possible vacuum solutions there is a large class of spacetimes in which the macroscopic space expands and the microscopic space contracts to a finite volume. We also consider a non-vacuum case and we explicitly solve the field equations for the matter satisfying the Zel'dovich equation of state. In non-vacuum models, with matter satisfying an equation of state p = γρ, O ≤ γ < 1, at a sufficiently late stage of evolution the microspace always expands and the dynamical dimensional reduction does not occur. (author)

  15. Multidimensional Rank Reduction Estimator for Parametric MIMO Channel Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marius Pesavento

    2004-08-01

    Full Text Available A novel algebraic method for the simultaneous estimation of MIMO channel parameters from channel sounder measurements is developed. We consider a parametric multipath propagation model with P discrete paths where each path is characterized by its complex path gain, its directions of arrival and departure, time delay, and Doppler shift. This problem is treated as a special case of the multidimensional harmonic retrieval problem. While the well-known ESPRIT-type algorithms exploit shift-invariance between specific partitions of the signal matrix, the rank reduction estimator (RARE algorithm exploits their internal Vandermonde structure. A multidimensional extension of the RARE algorithm is developed, analyzed, and applied to measurement data recorded with the RUSK vector channel sounder in the 2 GHz band.

  16. Review of reactive kinetic models describing reductive dechlorination of chlorinated ethenes in soil and groundwater

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chambon, Julie Claire Claudia; Bjerg, Poul Løgstrup; Scheutz, Charlotte

    2013-01-01

    Reductive dechlorination is a major degradation pathway of chlorinated ethenes in anaerobic subsurface environments, and reactive kinetic models describing the degradation process are needed in fate and transport models of these contaminants. However, reductive dechlorination is a complex biologi...

  17. Restrictions in Model Reduction for Polymer Chain Models in Dissipative Particle Dynamics

    KAUST Repository

    Moreno Chaparro, Nicolas

    2014-06-06

    We model high molecular weight homopolymers in semidilute concentration via Dissipative Particle Dynamics (DPD). We show that in model reduction methodologies for polymers it is not enough to preserve system properties (i.e., density ρ, pressure p, temperature T, radial distribution function g(r)) but preserving also the characteristic shape and length scale of the polymer chain model is necessary. In this work we apply a DPD-model-reduction methodology for linear polymers recently proposed; and demonstrate why the applicability of this methodology is limited upto certain maximum polymer length, and not suitable for solvent coarse graining.

  18. Restrictions in Model Reduction for Polymer Chain Models in Dissipative Particle Dynamics

    KAUST Repository

    Moreno Chaparro, Nicolas; Nunes, Suzana Pereira; Calo, Victor M.

    2014-01-01

    We model high molecular weight homopolymers in semidilute concentration via Dissipative Particle Dynamics (DPD). We show that in model reduction methodologies for polymers it is not enough to preserve system properties (i.e., density ρ, pressure p, temperature T, radial distribution function g(r)) but preserving also the characteristic shape and length scale of the polymer chain model is necessary. In this work we apply a DPD-model-reduction methodology for linear polymers recently proposed; and demonstrate why the applicability of this methodology is limited upto certain maximum polymer length, and not suitable for solvent coarse graining.

  19. Reductive dehalogenation in microbial and electrolytic model systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Criddle, C.S.

    1990-01-01

    This research addresses the principles or reductive dehalogenation, with a focus on microbial processes. Carbon tetrachloride (CT) was selected as a model compound for intensive investigation. Three different experimental systems were studied: pure cultures of Escherichia coli k-12, pure cultures of a denitrifying Pseudomonad isolated from aquifer solids (Pseudomonas sp. strain KC), and an electrolysis cell. The product distributions were consistent with the hypothesis that CT undergoes a rate-limiting reduction to radical species which rapidly react with constituents of the surrounding milieu. In cultures of E. coli k-12, use of oxygen and nitrate as terminal electron acceptors generally prevented CT transformation. At low oxygen levels (∼ 1%), however, transformation of 14 C-CT to 14 C-CO 2 and attachment to cell material did occur in accord with reports of CT fate in mammalian cell cultures. Under fumarate-respiring conditions, 14 C-CT was recovered as 14 C-C 2 , chloroform (CF), and in a non-volatile fraction. In contrast, fermenting conditions resulted in more CF, more cell-bound 14 C, and almost no 14 C-CO 2 . Rates were faster under fermenting conditions than under fumarate-respiring conditions. Rates also decreased over time suggesting the gradual exhaustion of transformation activity. This loss was modeled with a simple exponential decay term. Pseudomonas sp. strain KC converted 14 C-CT to 14 C-CO 2 under denitrifying conditions, without CF production. Strain KC was the only organism of several denitrifiers that transformed CT. Induction of CT transformation by strain KC depended upon the presence of trace metals. Addition of ferrous iron and cobalt inhibited CT transformation. For strain KC, CT transformation is apparently linked to its mechanism for trace metal acquisition

  20. Breast cancer prevention knowledge, beliefs, and information sources between non-Hispanic and Hispanic college women for risk reduction focus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kratzke, Cynthia; Amatya, Anup; Vilchis, Hugo

    2015-02-01

    Although growing research focuses on breast cancer screenings, little is known about breast cancer prevention with risk reduction awareness for ethnic differences among college-age women. This study examined breast cancer prevention knowledge, beliefs, and information sources between non-Hispanic and Hispanic college women. Using a cross-sectional study, women at a university in the Southwest completed a 51-item survey about breast cancer risk factors, beliefs, and media and interpersonal information sources. The study was guided by McGuire's Input Output Persuasion Model. Of the 546 participants, non-Hispanic college women (n = 277) and Hispanic college women (n = 269) reported similar basic knowledge levels of modifiable breast cancer risk factors for alcohol consumption (52 %), obesity (72 %), childbearing after age 35 (63 %), and menopausal hormone therapy (68 %) using bivariate analyses. Most common information sources were Internet (75 %), magazines (69 %), provider (76 %) and friends (61 %). Least common sources were radio (44 %), newspapers (34 %), and mothers (36 %). Non-Hispanic college women with breast cancer family history were more likely to receive information from providers, friends, and mothers. Hispanic college women with a breast cancer family history were more likely to receive information from their mothers. Breast cancer prevention education for college women is needed to include risk reduction for modifiable health behavior changes as a new focus. Health professionals may target college women with more information sources including the Internet or apps.

  1. Trimming a hazard logic tree with a new model-order-reduction technique

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porter, Keith; Field, Edward; Milner, Kevin R

    2017-01-01

    The size of the logic tree within the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast Version 3, Time-Dependent (UCERF3-TD) model can challenge risk analyses of large portfolios. An insurer or catastrophe risk modeler concerned with losses to a California portfolio might have to evaluate a portfolio 57,600 times to estimate risk in light of the hazard possibility space. Which branches of the logic tree matter most, and which can one ignore? We employed two model-order-reduction techniques to simplify the model. We sought a subset of parameters that must vary, and the specific fixed values for the remaining parameters, to produce approximately the same loss distribution as the original model. The techniques are (1) a tornado-diagram approach we employed previously for UCERF2, and (2) an apparently novel probabilistic sensitivity approach that seems better suited to functions of nominal random variables. The new approach produces a reduced-order model with only 60 of the original 57,600 leaves. One can use the results to reduce computational effort in loss analyses by orders of magnitude.

  2. Usefulness and limitations of global flood risk models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, Philip; Jongman, Brenden; Salamon, Peter; Simpson, Alanna; Bates, Paul; De Groeve, Tom; Muis, Sanne; Coughlan de Perez, Erin; Rudari, Roberto; Mark, Trigg; Winsemius, Hessel

    2016-04-01

    Global flood risk models are now a reality. Initially, their development was driven by a demand from users for first-order global assessments to identify risk hotspots. Relentless upward trends in flood damage over the last decade have enhanced interest in such assessments. The adoption of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and the Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage Associated with Climate Change Impacts have made these efforts even more essential. As a result, global flood risk models are being used more and more in practice, by an increasingly large number of practitioners and decision-makers. However, they clearly have their limits compared to local models. To address these issues, a team of scientists and practitioners recently came together at the Global Flood Partnership meeting to critically assess the question 'What can('t) we do with global flood risk models?'. The results of this dialogue (Ward et al., 2013) will be presented, opening a discussion on similar broader initiatives at the science-policy interface in other natural hazards. In this contribution, examples are provided of successful applications of global flood risk models in practice (for example together with the World Bank, Red Cross, and UNISDR), and limitations and gaps between user 'wish-lists' and model capabilities are discussed. Finally, a research agenda is presented for addressing these limitations and reducing the gaps. Ward et al., 2015. Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate2742

  3. Generation of risk importance information from severe accident PSA model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seo, Mi Ro; Kim, Hyeong Taek; Moon, Chan Kook

    2012-01-01

    One of the important objects conducting Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) is the relative evaluation of importance of the component or function that is greatly affected to the plant safety. This evaluation is performed by the importance assessment methods such as Risk Reduction Worth, Risk Achievement Worth, and Fuss el Vessley method from the aspect of core damage frequency (CDF). In the Level 1 PSA model, the importance of each component can be evaluated since the CDF is calculated by the combination of the branch probability of event tree and the component failure probability in the fault tree. But, the Level 2 PSA model in order to assess the containment integrity cannot evaluate the risk importance by the above methods because the model is consisted of 3 parts, plant damage status, containment event tree, and source term category. So, in the field that the Level 2 PSA risk importance information should be reflected, such as maintenance rule program, risk importance has been determined by the subjective judgment of the model developer. This study was performed in order to generate the risk importance information more objectively and systematically in the Level 2 PSA model, focused on the containment event tree in the domain PHWR Level 2 PSA model

  4. The calm mouse: an animal model of stress reduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gurfein, Blake T; Stamm, Andrew W; Bacchetti, Peter; Dallman, Mary F; Nadkarni, Nachiket A; Milush, Jeffrey M; Touma, Chadi; Palme, Rupert; Di Borgo, Charles Pozzo; Fromentin, Gilles; Lown-Hecht, Rachel; Konsman, Jan Pieter; Acree, Michael; Premenko-Lanier, Mary; Darcel, Nicolas; Hecht, Frederick M; Nixon, Douglas F

    2012-05-09

    Chronic stress is associated with negative health outcomes and is linked with neuroendocrine changes, deleterious effects on innate and adaptive immunity, and central nervous system neuropathology. Although stress management is commonly advocated clinically, there is insufficient mechanistic understanding of how decreasing stress affects disease pathogenesis. Therefore, we have developed a "calm mouse model" with caging enhancements designed to reduce murine stress. Male BALB/c mice were divided into four groups: control (Cntl), standard caging; calm (Calm), large caging to reduce animal density, a cardboard nest box for shelter, paper nesting material to promote innate nesting behavior, and a polycarbonate tube to mimic tunneling; control exercise (Cntl Ex), standard caging with a running wheel, known to reduce stress; and calm exercise (Calm Ex), calm caging with a running wheel. Calm, Cntl Ex and Calm Ex animals exhibited significantly less corticosterone production than Cntl animals. We also observed changes in spleen mass, and in vitro splenocyte studies demonstrated that Calm Ex animals had innate and adaptive immune responses that were more sensitive to acute handling stress than those in Cntl. Calm animals gained greater body mass than Cntl, although they had similar food intake, and we also observed changes in body composition, using magnetic resonance imaging. Together, our results suggest that the Calm mouse model represents a promising approach to studying the biological effects of stress reduction in the context of health and in conjunction with existing disease models.

  5. A study on the effect of flaw detection probability assumptions on risk reduction achieved by non-destructive inspection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cronvall, O.; Simola, K.; Männistö, I.; Gunnars, J.; Alverlind, L.; Dillström, P.; Gandossi, L.

    2012-01-01

    Leakages and ruptures of piping components lead to reduction or loss of the pressure retaining capability of the system, and thus contribute to the overall risk associated with nuclear power plants. In-service inspection (ISI) aims at verifying that defects are not present in components of the pressure boundary or, if defects are present, ensuring that these are detected before they affect the safe operation of the plant. Reliability estimates of piping are needed e.g., in probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) studies, risk-informed ISI (RI-ISI) applications, and other structural reliability assessments. Probabilistic fracture mechanics models can account for ISI reliability, but a quantitative estimate for the latter is needed. This is normally expressed in terms of probability of detection (POD) curves, which correlate the probability of detecting a flaw with flaw size. A detailed POD curve is often difficult (or practically impossible) to obtain. If sufficient risk reduction can be shown by using simplified (but reasonably conservative) POD estimates, more complex PODs are not needed. This paper summarises the results of a study on the effect of piping inspection reliability assumptions on failure probability using structural reliability models. The main interest was to investigate whether it is justifiable to use a simplified POD curve. Further, the study compared various structural reliability calculation approaches for a set of analysis cases. The results indicate that the use of a simplified POD could be justifiable in RI-ISI applications.

  6. Dietary salt reduction and cardiovascular disease rates in India: a mathematical model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanjay Basu

    Full Text Available Reducing salt intake has been proposed to prevent cardiovascular disease in India. We sought to determine whether salt reductions would be beneficial or feasible, given the worry that unrealistically large reductions would be required, worsening iodine deficiency and benefiting only urban subpopulations.Future myocardial infarctions (MI and strokes in India were predicted with a Markov model simulating men and women aged 40 to 69 in both urban and rural locations, incorporating the risk reduction from lower salt intake. If salt intake does not change, we expect ~8.3 million MIs (95% CI: 6.9-9.6 million, 830,000 strokes (690,000-960,000 and 2.0 million associated deaths (1.5-2.4 million per year among Indian adults aged 40 to 69 over the next three decades. Reducing intake by 3 g/day over 30 years (-0.1 g/year, 25% reduction would reduce annual MIs by 350,000 (a 4.6% reduction; 95% CI: 320,000-380,000, strokes by 48,000 (-6.5%; 13,000-83,000 and deaths by 81,000 (-4.9%; 59,000-100,000 among this group. The largest decline in MIs would be among younger urban men, but the greatest number of averted strokes would be among rural men, and nearly one-third of averted strokes and one-fifth of averted MIs would be among rural women. Only under a highly pessimistic scenario would iodine deficiency increase (by <0.0001%, ~1600 persons, since inadequate iodized salt access--not low intake of iodized salt--is the major cause of deficiency and would be unaffected by dietary salt reduction.Modest reductions in salt intake could substantially reduce cardiovascular disease throughout India.

  7. Biological reduction of chlorinated solvents: Batch-scale geochemical modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kouznetsova, Irina; Mao, Xiaomin; Robinson, Clare; Barry, D. A.; Gerhard, Jason I.; McCarty, Perry L.

    2010-09-01

    Simulation of biodegradation of chlorinated solvents in dense non-aqueous phase liquid (DNAPL) source zones requires a model that accounts for the complexity of processes involved and that is consistent with available laboratory studies. This paper describes such a comprehensive modeling framework that includes microbially mediated degradation processes, microbial population growth and decay, geochemical reactions, as well as interphase mass transfer processes such as DNAPL dissolution, gas formation and mineral precipitation/dissolution. All these processes can be in equilibrium or kinetically controlled. A batch modeling example was presented where the degradation of trichloroethene (TCE) and its byproducts and concomitant reactions (e.g., electron donor fermentation, sulfate reduction, pH buffering by calcite dissolution) were simulated. Local and global sensitivity analysis techniques were applied to delineate the dominant model parameters and processes. Sensitivity analysis indicated that accurate values for parameters related to dichloroethene (DCE) and vinyl chloride (VC) degradation (i.e., DCE and VC maximum utilization rates, yield due to DCE utilization, decay rate for DCE/VC dechlorinators) are important for prediction of the overall dechlorination time. These parameters influence the maximum growth rate of the DCE and VC dechlorinating microorganisms and, thus, the time required for a small initial population to reach a sufficient concentration to significantly affect the overall rate of dechlorination. Self-inhibition of chlorinated ethenes at high concentrations and natural buffering provided by the sediment were also shown to significantly influence the dechlorination time. Furthermore, the analysis indicated that the rates of the competing, nonchlorinated electron-accepting processes relative to the dechlorination kinetics also affect the overall dechlorination time. Results demonstrated that the model developed is a flexible research tool that is

  8. Communication products for the Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) tsunami scenario: Chapter K in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, Suzanne C.

    2013-01-01

    Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR), like its predecessor the Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project, has a mission to increase the use of science by decision-makers of all kinds. Thus, an important part of any SAFRR scenario is development of products that enhance usability of the science. In this tsunami scenario, the focus has been on development of three kinds of products: products that augment typical outputs of scientific studies, such as reports, to make the results of the scenario more relevant and usable to nonscientists; products that distill local impacts and allow users in specific locales to identify which aspects of the broad regional study apply to their local area; and

  9. REDUCTION OF SYSTEMIC RISK IN SERBIA THROUGH INTELLIGENT RISK MANAGEMENT IN STATE-OWNED ENTERPRISES

    OpenAIRE

    Dragan Đuričin; Iva Vuksanović

    2012-01-01

    These days, the effects of the combined crisis in Serbia have been larger than ever. Serbia was already in a transitional recession when it entered global economic crisis of 2008. The global double dip recession and this domestic recession, caused by structural imbalances before and during the transition, exacerbate each other's negative effects. Consequently, companies find themselves exposed to systemic (or external) risk that is beyond their control, and is continually increasing. The curr...

  10. Concordance for prognostic models with competing risks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wolbers, Marcel; Blanche, Paul; Koller, Michael T

    2014-01-01

    The concordance probability is a widely used measure to assess discrimination of prognostic models with binary and survival endpoints. We formally define the concordance probability for a prognostic model of the absolute risk of an event of interest in the presence of competing risks and relate i...

  11. Why operational risk modelling creates inverse incentives

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Doff, R.

    2015-01-01

    Operational risk modelling has become commonplace in large international banks and is gaining popularity in the insurance industry as well. This is partly due to financial regulation (Basel II, Solvency II). This article argues that operational risk modelling is fundamentally flawed, despite efforts

  12. Risk factors for avascular necrosis after closed reduction for developmental dysplasia of the hip.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schur, Mathew D; Lee, Christopher; Arkader, Alexandre; Catalano, Anthony; Choi, Paul D

    2016-06-01

    The purpose of this study was to identify and evaluate risk factors of avascular necrosis (AVN) after closed treatment for developmental dysplasia of the hip (DDH). A retrospective review of children diagnosed with DDH at a tertiary-care children's hospital between 1986 and 2009 was performed. The presence of AVN was assessed according to Salter's classification system. Eighty-two affected hips in 70 children with an average age of 10 months at closed reduction (range 1-31 months) and 5 years (range 2-19 years) of follow-up met the inclusion criteria. Twenty-nine (of 82, 35 %) affected hips developed AVN. The use of pre-reduction traction (p = 0.019) increased the risk of AVN, while preoperative Pavlik harness or brace trial (p = 0.28), presence of ossific nucleus at the time of closed reduction (p = 0.16), and adductor tenotomy (p = 0.37) were not significant factors. Laterality (right vs. left) was also not a significant risk factor (p = 0.75), but patients who underwent closed reduction for bilateral DDH were less likely to develop AVN (p = 0.027). Overall, the degree of abduction did not affect the rate of AVN (p = 0.87). However, in patients treated with closed reduction younger than 6 months of age, the rate of AVN was increased with abduction ≥50° (9/15, 60 %) compared to abduction AVN were more likely to require subsequent surgery (p = 0.034) and more likely to report a fair/poor clinical outcome (p = 0.049). The risk of AVN (35 %) following closed reduction and spica casting for DDH is high. The degree of abduction in spica casts appears to be a risk factor in patients ≤6 months old. The authors recommend that abduction in spica casts should be limited to <50° in children younger than 6 months of age. IV.

  13. Designing a Physical Security System for Risk Reduction in a Hypothetical Nuclear Facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saleh, A.A.; Abd Elaziz, M.

    2017-01-01

    Physical security in a nuclear facility means detection, prevention and response to threat, the ft, sabotage, unauthorized access and illegal transfer involving radioactive and nuclear material. This paper proposes a physical security system designing concepts to reduce the risk associated with variant threats to a nuclear facility. This paper presents a study of the unauthorized removal and sabotage in a hypothetical nuclear facility considering deter, delay and response layers. More over, the study involves performing any required upgrading to the security system by investigating the nuclear facility layout and considering all physical security layers design to enhance the weakness for risk reduction

  14. Does mitigation save? Reviewing cost-benefit analyses of disaster risk reduction

    OpenAIRE

    Shreve, Cheney M.; Kelman, Ilan

    2014-01-01

    The benefit-cost-ratio (BCR), used in cost-benefit analysis (CBA), is an indicator that attempts to summarize the overall value for money of a project. Disaster costs continue to rise and the demand has increased to demonstrate the economic benefit of disaster risk reduction (DRR) to policy makers. This study compiles and compares original CBA case studies reporting DRR BCRs, without restrictions as to hazard type, location, scale, or other parameters. Many results were identified supporting ...

  15. Public risk-reduction measures: cost-effectiveness from a global point-of-view

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oliveira, L.F.S. de; Motta Barros, E.B. da; Fleming, P.V.; Rosa, L.P.

    1985-05-01

    A review of systemic or global approach to cost-effectiveness analysis of risk-reduction measures is presented, and its advantages and limitations are discussed. The method is applied for problem of the cost-effectiveness of increasing the Angra 3 reactor containment wall thickness from 60cm to 180cm thick, in case of a direct commercial aircraft crash on it. (Author) [pt

  16. Improving End-To-End Tsunami Warning for Risk Reduction on Canada’s West Coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-01-01

    in 2014, up from 455 cals in 2013 (Chamber of Shipping, 2014). Even the more traditional forms of marine tourism such as sports fishing have been...some of the most noteworthy areas of new economic activity to emerge have been aquaculture, recreation and tourism , research and oil, gas and other...Risk Reduction on Canada’s West Coast (CSSP-2013-TI-1033) 3   annual value of output over $590 milion (Fisheries and Oceans Canada, 2013). Tourism

  17. Ethical Responsibility of Governance for Integrating Disaster Risk Reduction with Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parkash Gupta, Surya

    2015-04-01

    The development in the public as well as the private sectors is controlled and regulated, directly or indirectly by the governments at federal, provincial and local levels. If this development goes haphazard and unplanned, without due considerations to environmental constraints and potential hazards; it is likely to cause disasters or may get affected by disasters. Therefore, it becomes an ethical responsibility of the people involved in governance sector to integrate disaster risk reduction with development in their administrative territories through enforcement of appropriate policies, guidelines and regulatory mechanisms. Such mechanisms should address the social, scientific, economic, environmental, and legal requirements that play significant role in planning, implementation of developmental activities as well as disaster management. The paper focuses on defining the ethical responsibilities for the governance sector for integrating disaster risk reduction with development. It highlights the ethical issues with examples from two case studies, one from the Uttarakhand state and the other Odhisa state in India. The case studies illustrates how does it make a difference in disaster risk reduction if the governments own or do not own ethical responsibilities. The paper considers two major disaster events, flash floods in Uttarakhand state and Cyclone Phailin in Odhisa state, that happened during the year 2013. The study points out that it makes a great difference in terms of consequences and response to disasters when ethical responsibilities are owned by the governance sector. The papers attempts to define these ethical responsibilities for integrating disaster risk reduction with development so that the governments can be held accountable for their acts or non-actions.

  18. Calculating excess lifetime risk in relative risk models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vaeth, M.; Pierce, D.A.

    1990-01-01

    When assessing the impact of radiation exposure it is common practice to present the final conclusions in terms of excess lifetime cancer risk in a population exposed to a given dose. The present investigation is mainly a methodological study focusing on some of the major issues and uncertainties involved in calculating such excess lifetime risks and related risk projection methods. The age-constant relative risk model used in the recent analyses of the cancer mortality that was observed in the follow-up of the cohort of A-bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki is used to describe the effect of the exposure on the cancer mortality. In this type of model the excess relative risk is constant in age-at-risk, but depends on the age-at-exposure. Calculation of excess lifetime risks usually requires rather complicated life-table computations. In this paper we propose a simple approximation to the excess lifetime risk; the validity of the approximation for low levels of exposure is justified empirically as well as theoretically. This approximation provides important guidance in understanding the influence of the various factors involved in risk projections. Among the further topics considered are the influence of a latent period, the additional problems involved in calculations of site-specific excess lifetime cancer risks, the consequences of a leveling off or a plateau in the excess relative risk, and the uncertainties involved in transferring results from one population to another. The main part of this study relates to the situation with a single, instantaneous exposure, but a brief discussion is also given of the problem with a continuous exposure at a low-dose rate

  19. Participatory three dimensional mapping for the preparation of landslide disaster risk reduction program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kusratmoko, Eko; Wibowo, Adi; Cholid, Sofyan; Pin, Tjiong Giok

    2017-07-01

    This paper presents the results of applications of participatory three dimensional mapping (P3DM) method for fqcilitating the people of Cibanteng' village to compile a landslide disaster risk reduction program. Physical factors, as high rainfall, topography, geology and land use, and coupled with the condition of demographic and social-economic factors, make up the Cibanteng region highly susceptible to landslides. During the years 2013-2014 has happened 2 times landslides which caused economic losses, as a result of damage to homes and farmland. Participatory mapping is one part of the activities of community-based disaster risk reduction (CBDRR)), because of the involvement of local communities is a prerequisite for sustainable disaster risk reduction. In this activity, participatory mapping method are done in two ways, namely participatory two-dimensional mapping (P2DM) with a focus on mapping of disaster areas and participatory three-dimensional mapping (P3DM) with a focus on the entire territory of the village. Based on the results P3DM, the ability of the communities in understanding the village environment spatially well-tested and honed, so as to facilitate the preparation of the CBDRR programs. Furthermore, the P3DM method can be applied to another disaster areas, due to it becomes a medium of effective dialogue between all levels of involved communities.

  20. Takotsubo Cardiomyopathy: A Long Term Follow-up Shows Benefit with Risk Factor Reduction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Koroush Khalighi

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Only sparse data was available on long-term of Takotusbo Cardiomyopathy (TC. Previous studies suggested prognosis is not necessarily benign. We report the long-term follow-up of 12 TC patients actively managed with risk factor reduction. Retrospective analysis of all patients diagnosed with TC at our hospital between 1998 and 2010. We identified 12 patients with TC among 1651 cases of emergent left heart catheterization over 12 years. Mean follow-up time was 8.3 ± 3.6 years. All were female, 87% had hypertension, 25% had history of Coronary Artery Disease (CAD, 67% had hyperlipidemia, 44% had some preceding emotional trauma, and 44% had some physical/physiological stress. Previous studies have shown that over 50% of TC patients experience future cardiac events, and 10% have a recurrence of TC. Patients were prescribed therapeutic lifestyle changes (TLC and guideline directed medical therapy (GDMT for aggressive risk factor reduction. TLC included diet, exercise, and cardiac rehabilitation. GDMT often included aspirin, beta-blockers, ACE-inhibitors, and statins. Follow-up echocardiograms showed recovery and maintenance of the ejection fraction. There was no cardiac mortality and no recurrences of TC. Aggressive risk factor reduction with TLC and GDMT may be effective in improving the long term outcomes of patients with TC.

  1. Effect of Using Different Vehicle Weight Groups on the Estimated Relationship Between Mass Reduction and U.S. Societal Fatality Risk per Vehicle Miles of Travel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wenzel, Tom P. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Environmental Technologies Area. Building Technology and Urban Systems Division

    2016-08-22

    This report recalculates the estimated relationship between vehicle mass and societal fatality risk, using alternative groupings by vehicle weight, to test whether the trend of decreasing fatality risk from mass reduction as case vehicle mass increases, holds over smaller increments of the range in case vehicle masses. The NHTSA baseline regression model estimates the relationship using for two weight groups for cars and light trucks; we re-estimated the mass reduction coefficients using four, six, and eight bins of vehicle mass. The estimated effect of mass reduction on societal fatality risk was not consistent over the range in vehicle masses in these weight bins. These results suggest that the relationship indicated by the NHTSA baseline model is a result of other, unmeasured attributes of the mix of vehicles in the lighter vs. heavier weight bins, and not necessarily the result of a correlation between mass reduction and societal fatality risk. An analysis of the average vehicle, driver, and crash characteristics across the various weight groupings did not reveal any strong trends that might explain the lack of a consistent trend of decreasing fatality risk from mass reduction in heavier vehicles.

  2. Springtime Flood Risk Reduction in Rural Arctic: A Comparative Study of Interior Alaska, United States and Central Yakutia, Russia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yekaterina Y. Kontar

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Every spring, riverine communities throughout the Arctic face flood risk. As the river ice begins to thaw and break up, ice jams—accumulation of chunks and sheets of ice in the river channel, force melt water and ice floes to back up for dozens of kilometers and flood vulnerable communities upstream. Via a comparative analysis between two flood-prone communities in Alaska and Yakutia (Siberia, this study examines key components of flood risk—hazards, exposure, and vulnerability, and existing practices in flood risk reduction in rural Arctic. The research sites are two rural communities—Galena (Yukon River and Edeytsy (Lena River, which sustained major ice-jam floods in May 2013. The data was acquired through a combination of direct observations on site, review of documents and archives, focus group discussions, and surveys. Five focus groups with US and Russian representatives from disaster management agencies revealed a few similar patterns as well as significant differences in flood risk reduction strategies. The main differences included higher reliance on mechanical and short-term ice jam and flood mitigation efforts (e.g., ice-jam demolition in the Russian Arctic, and lack of a centralized flood management model in the US. Surveys conducted among population at risk during the site visits to Edeytsy (November 2015 and Galena (March 2016 revealed higher satisfaction levels with the existing flood risk reduction efforts among Edeytsy residents. Survey respondents in Galena indicated the lack of ice jam removal and other flood prevention measures as the key drawback in the existing flood management. Historical analysis, conducted via the disaster Pressure and Release (PAR model, revealed that springtime flood risk in both regions results from complex interactions among a series of natural processes that generate conditions of hazard, and human actions that generate conditions of communities’ exposure and vulnerability. The analysis

  3. Vehicle Lightweighting: Mass Reduction Spectrum Analysis and Process Cost Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mascarin, Anthony [IBIS Associates, Inc., Waltham, MA (United States); Hannibal, Ted [IBIS Associates, Inc., Waltham, MA (United States); Raghunathan, Anand [Energetics Inc., Columbia, MD (United States); Ivanic, Ziga [Energetics Inc., Columbia, MD (United States); Clark, Michael [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2016-03-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy’s Vehicle Technologies Office, Materials area commissioned a study to model and assess manufacturing economics of alternative design and production strategies for a series of lightweight vehicle concepts. In the first two phases of this effort examined combinations of strategies aimed at achieving strategic targets of 40% and a 45% mass reduction relative to a standard North American midsize passenger sedan at an effective cost of $3.42 per pound (lb) saved. These results have been reported in the Idaho National Laboratory report INL/EXT-14-33863 entitled Vehicle Lightweighting: 40% and 45% Weight Savings Analysis: Technical Cost Modeling for Vehicle Lightweighting published in March 2015. The data for these strategies were drawn from many sources, including Lotus Engineering Limited and FEV, Inc. lightweighting studies, U.S. Department of Energy-funded Vehma International of America, Inc./Ford Motor Company Multi-Material Lightweight Prototype Vehicle Demonstration Project, the Aluminum Association Transportation Group, many United States Council for Automotive Research’s/United States Automotive Materials Partnership LLC lightweight materials programs, and IBIS Associates, Inc.’s decades of experience in automotive lightweighting and materials substitution analyses.

  4. Hybrid CMS methods with model reduction for assembly of structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farhat, Charbel

    1991-01-01

    Future on-orbit structures will be designed and built in several stages, each with specific control requirements. Therefore there must be a methodology which can predict the dynamic characteristics of the assembled structure, based on the dynamic characteristics of the subassemblies and their interfaces. The methodology developed by CSC to address this issue is Hybrid Component Mode Synthesis (HCMS). HCMS distinguishes itself from standard component mode synthesis algorithms in the following features: (1) it does not require the subcomponents to have displacement compatible models, which makes it ideal for analyzing the deployment of heterogeneous flexible multibody systems, (2) it incorporates a second-level model reduction scheme at the interface, which makes it much faster than other algorithms and therefore suitable for control purposes, and (3) it does answer specific questions such as 'how does the global fundamental frequency vary if I change the physical parameters of substructure k by a specified amount?'. Because it is based on an energy principle rather than displacement compatibility, this methodology can also help the designer to define an assembly process. Current and future efforts are devoted to applying the HCMS method to design and analyze docking and berthing procedures in orbital construction.

  5. Vehicle Lightweighting: Mass Reduction Spectrum Analysis and Process Cost Modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mascarin, Anthony; Hannibal, Ted; Raghunathan, Anand; Ivanic, Ziga; Clark, Michael

    2016-01-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy's Vehicle Technologies Office, Materials area commissioned a study to model and assess manufacturing economics of alternative design and production strategies for a series of lightweight vehicle concepts. In the first two phases of this effort examined combinations of strategies aimed at achieving strategic targets of 40% and a 45% mass reduction relative to a standard North American midsize passenger sedan at an effective cost of $3.42 per pound (lb) saved. These results have been reported in the Idaho National Laboratory report INL/EXT-14-33863 entitled Vehicle Lightweighting: 40% and 45% Weight Savings Analysis: Technical Cost Modeling for Vehicle Lightweighting published in March 2015. The data for these strategies were drawn from many sources, including Lotus Engineering Limited and FEV, Inc. lightweighting studies, U.S. Department of Energy-funded Vehma International of America, Inc./Ford Motor Company Multi-Material Lightweight Prototype Vehicle Demonstration Project, the Aluminum Association Transportation Group, many United States Council for Automotive Research's/United States Automotive Materials Partnership LLC lightweight materials programs, and IBIS Associates, Inc.'s decades of experience in automotive lightweighting and materials substitution analyses.

  6. Galerkin v. discrete-optimal projection in nonlinear model reduction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carlberg, Kevin Thomas [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Barone, Matthew Franklin [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Antil, Harbir [George Mason Univ., Fairfax, VA (United States)

    2015-04-01

    Discrete-optimal model-reduction techniques such as the Gauss{Newton with Approximated Tensors (GNAT) method have shown promise, as they have generated stable, accurate solutions for large-scale turbulent, compressible ow problems where standard Galerkin techniques have failed. However, there has been limited comparative analysis of the two approaches. This is due in part to difficulties arising from the fact that Galerkin techniques perform projection at the time-continuous level, while discrete-optimal techniques do so at the time-discrete level. This work provides a detailed theoretical and experimental comparison of the two techniques for two common classes of time integrators: linear multistep schemes and Runge{Kutta schemes. We present a number of new ndings, including conditions under which the discrete-optimal ROM has a time-continuous representation, conditions under which the two techniques are equivalent, and time-discrete error bounds for the two approaches. Perhaps most surprisingly, we demonstrate both theoretically and experimentally that decreasing the time step does not necessarily decrease the error for the discrete-optimal ROM; instead, the time step should be `matched' to the spectral content of the reduced basis. In numerical experiments carried out on a turbulent compressible- ow problem with over one million unknowns, we show that increasing the time step to an intermediate value decreases both the error and the simulation time of the discrete-optimal reduced-order model by an order of magnitude.

  7. Alcoholism Risk Reduction in France: A Modernised Approach Related to Alcohol Misuse Disorders

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Georges Brousse

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available During many years in France, risk reduction strategies for substance abuse concerned prevention strategies in the general population or interventions near users of illicit substances. In this spirit, the reduction of consumption only concerned opiate addicts. With regard to alcohol, the prevention messages relative to controlled consumption were difficult to transmit because of the importance of this product in the culture of the country. In addition, methods of treatment of alcoholism rested on the dogma of abstinence. Several factors have recently led to an evolution in the treatment of alcohol use disorders integrating the reduction of consumption in strategies. Strategies for reducing consumption should aim for consumption below recommended thresholds (two drinks per day for women, three for the men or, at least, in that direction. It must also be supported by pharmacotherapy and psychotherapy, which offer possibilities. Failure to manage reduction will allow the goals to be revisited and to reconsider abstinence. Finally this evolution or revolution is a new paradigm carried in particular by a pragmatic approach of the disease and new treatments. The aims of this article are to give elements of comprehension relating to the evolution of the practices in France in prevention and treatment of alcohol use disorders and in particular with regard to the reduction of consumption.

  8. The Role of Family in a Dietary Risk Reduction Intervention for Cardiovascular Disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tracy L. Schumacher

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Diet is an essential strategy for the prevention of primary and secondary cardiovascular disease (CVD events. The objectives were to examine: how families at increased risk of CVD perceived personal risk, their motivations to make dietary changes, their understanding of diet, and the influence of other family members. Individuals (>18 years who completed an Australian family-based CVD risk reduction program were invited to a semi-structured telephone interview. Responses were recorded, transcribed verbatim and analysed using a systematic deductive approach with coding derived from key concepts developed as part of the interview structure. Seventeen participants from eight families were interviewed (aged 18–70 years, 47% male, five with CVD diagnosis. Key themes indicated both intrinsic and extrinsic motivations to improve heart health, variations in risk perception, recognition of the role diet plays in heart health, and the extent of family influences on eating patterns. Discrepancies between perceived and actual CVD risk perception impacted on perceived “need” to modify current dietary patterns towards heart health recommendations. Therefore, strategies not reliant on risk perception are needed to engage those with low risk perception. This could involve identifying and accessing the family “ringleader” to influence involvement and capitalising on personal accountability to other family members.

  9. The Role of Family in a Dietary Risk Reduction Intervention for Cardiovascular Disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schumacher, Tracy L; Burrows, Tracy L; Thompson, Deborah I; Callister, Robin; Spratt, Neil J; Collins, Clare E

    2016-09-30

    Diet is an essential strategy for the prevention of primary and secondary cardiovascular disease (CVD) events. The objectives were to examine: how families at increased risk of CVD perceived personal risk, their motivations to make dietary changes, their understanding of diet, and the influence of other family members. Individuals (>18 years) who completed an Australian family-based CVD risk reduction program were invited to a semi-structured telephone interview. Responses were recorded, transcribed verbatim and analysed using a systematic deductive approach with coding derived from key concepts developed as part of the interview structure. Seventeen participants from eight families were interviewed (aged 18-70 years, 47% male, five with CVD diagnosis). Key themes indicated both intrinsic and extrinsic motivations to improve heart health, variations in risk perception, recognition of the role diet plays in heart health, and the extent of family influences on eating patterns. Discrepancies between perceived and actual CVD risk perception impacted on perceived "need" to modify current dietary patterns towards heart health recommendations. Therefore, strategies not reliant on risk perception are needed to engage those with low risk perception. This could involve identifying and accessing the family "ringleader" to influence involvement and capitalising on personal accountability to other family members.

  10. A text message intervention for alcohol risk reduction among community college students: TMAP.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bock, Beth C; Barnett, Nancy P; Thind, Herpreet; Rosen, Rochelle; Walaska, Kristen; Traficante, Regina; Foster, Robert; Deutsch, Chris; Fava, Joseph L; Scott-Sheldon, Lori A J

    2016-12-01

    Students at community colleges comprise nearly half of all U.S. college students and show higher risk of heavy drinking and related consequences compared to students at 4-year colleges, but no alcohol safety programs currently target this population. To examine the feasibility, acceptability, and preliminary efficacy of an alcohol risk-reduction program delivered through text messaging designed for community college (CC) students. Heavy drinking adult CC students (N=60) were enrolled and randomly assigned to the six-week active intervention (Text Message Alcohol Program: TMAP) or a control condition of general motivational (not alcohol related) text messages. TMAP text messages consisted of alcohol facts, strategies to limit alcohol use and related risks, and motivational messages. Assessments were conducted at baseline, week 6 (end of treatment) and week 12 (follow up). Most participants (87%) completed all follow up assessments. Intervention messages received an average rating of 6.8 (SD=1.5) on a 10-point scale. At week six, TMAP participants were less likely than controls to report heavy drinking and negative alcohol consequences. The TMAP group also showed significant increases in self-efficacy to resist drinking in high risk situations between baseline and week six, with no such increase among controls. Results were maintained through the week 12 follow up. The TMAP alcohol risk reduction program was feasible and highly acceptable indicated by high retention rates through the final follow up assessment and good ratings for the text message content. Reductions in multiple outcomes provide positive indications of intervention efficacy. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  11. Meditation and Cardiovascular Risk Reduction: A Scientific Statement From the American Heart Association.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levine, Glenn N; Lange, Richard A; Bairey-Merz, C Noel; Davidson, Richard J; Jamerson, Kenneth; Mehta, Puja K; Michos, Erin D; Norris, Keith; Ray, Indranill Basu; Saban, Karen L; Shah, Tina; Stein, Richard; Smith, Sidney C

    2017-09-28

    Despite numerous advances in the prevention and treatment of atherosclerosis, cardiovascular disease remains a leading cause of morbidity and mortality. Novel and inexpensive interventions that can contribute to the primary and secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease are of interest. Numerous studies have reported on the benefits of meditation. Meditation instruction and practice is widely accessible and inexpensive and may thus be a potential attractive cost-effective adjunct to more traditional medical therapies. Accordingly, this American Heart Association scientific statement systematically reviewed the data on the potential benefits of meditation on cardiovascular risk. Neurophysiological and neuroanatomical studies demonstrate that meditation can have long-standing effects on the brain, which provide some biological plausibility for beneficial consequences on the physiological basal state and on cardiovascular risk. Studies of the effects of meditation on cardiovascular risk have included those investigating physiological response to stress, smoking cessation, blood pressure reduction, insulin resistance and metabolic syndrome, endothelial function, inducible myocardial ischemia, and primary and secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease. Overall, studies of meditation suggest a possible benefit on cardiovascular risk, although the overall quality and, in some cases, quantity of study data are modest. Given the low costs and low risks of this intervention, meditation may be considered as an adjunct to guideline-directed cardiovascular risk reduction by those interested in this lifestyle modification, with the understanding that the benefits of such intervention remain to be better established. Further research on meditation and cardiovascular risk is warranted. Such studies, to the degree possible, should utilize randomized study design, be adequately powered to meet the primary study outcome, strive to achieve low drop-out rates, include long

  12. A methodology for modeling regional terrorism risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chatterjee, Samrat; Abkowitz, Mark D

    2011-07-01

    Over the past decade, terrorism risk has become a prominent consideration in protecting the well-being of individuals and organizations. More recently, there has been interest in not only quantifying terrorism risk, but also placing it in the context of an all-hazards environment in which consideration is given to accidents and natural hazards, as well as intentional acts. This article discusses the development of a regional terrorism risk assessment model designed for this purpose. The approach taken is to model terrorism risk as a dependent variable, expressed in expected annual monetary terms, as a function of attributes of population concentration and critical infrastructure. This allows for an assessment of regional terrorism risk in and of itself, as well as in relation to man-made accident and natural hazard risks, so that mitigation resources can be allocated in an effective manner. The adopted methodology incorporates elements of two terrorism risk modeling approaches (event-based models and risk indicators), producing results that can be utilized at various jurisdictional levels. The validity, strengths, and limitations of the model are discussed in the context of a case study application within the United States. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

  13. Teaching the Basics: Development and Validation of a Distal Radius Reduction and Casting Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seeley, Mark A; Fabricant, Peter D; Lawrence, J Todd R

    2017-09-01

    Approximately one-third of reduced pediatric distal radius fractures redisplace, resulting in further treatment. Two major modifiable risk factors for loss of reduction are reduction adequacy and cast quality. Closed reduction and immobilization of distal radius fractures is an Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education residency milestone. Teaching and assessing competency could be improved with a life-like simulation training tool. Our goal was to develop and validate a realistic distal radius fracture reduction and casting simulator as determined by (1) a questionnaire regarding the "realism" of the model and (2) the quantitative assessments of reduction time, residual angulation, and displacement. A distal radius fracture model was created with radiopaque bony segments and articulating elbows and shoulders. Simulated periosteum and internal deforming forces required proper reduction and casting techniques to achieve and maintain reduction. The forces required were estimated through an iterative process through feedback from experienced clinicians. Embedded monofilaments allowed for quantitative assessment of residual displacement and angulation through the use of fluoroscopy. Subjects were asked to perform closed reduction and apply a long arm fiberglass cast. Primary performance variables assessed included reduction time, residual angulation, and displacement. Secondary performance variables consisted of number of fluoroscopic images, casting time, and cast index (defined as the ratio of the internal width of the forearm cast in the sagittal plane to the internal width in the coronal plane at the fracture site). Subject grading was performed by two blinded reviewers. Interrater reliability was nearly perfect across all measurements (intraclass correlation coefficient range, 0.94-0.99), thus disagreements in measurements were handled by averaging the assessed values. After completion the participants answered a Likert-based questionnaire regarding the

  14. Acute Myocardial Infarction Readmission Risk Prediction Models: A Systematic Review of Model Performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Lauren N; Makam, Anil N; Darden, Douglas; Mayo, Helen; Das, Sandeep R; Halm, Ethan A; Nguyen, Oanh Kieu

    2018-01-01

    Hospitals are subject to federal financial penalties for excessive 30-day hospital readmissions for acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Prospectively identifying patients hospitalized with AMI at high risk for readmission could help prevent 30-day readmissions by enabling targeted interventions. However, the performance of AMI-specific readmission risk prediction models is unknown. We systematically searched the published literature through March 2017 for studies of risk prediction models for 30-day hospital readmission among adults with AMI. We identified 11 studies of 18 unique risk prediction models across diverse settings primarily in the United States, of which 16 models were specific to AMI. The median overall observed all-cause 30-day readmission rate across studies was 16.3% (range, 10.6%-21.0%). Six models were based on administrative data; 4 on electronic health record data; 3 on clinical hospital data; and 5 on cardiac registry data. Models included 7 to 37 predictors, of which demographics, comorbidities, and utilization metrics were the most frequently included domains. Most models, including the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services AMI administrative model, had modest discrimination (median C statistic, 0.65; range, 0.53-0.79). Of the 16 reported AMI-specific models, only 8 models were assessed in a validation cohort, limiting generalizability. Observed risk-stratified readmission rates ranged from 3.0% among the lowest-risk individuals to 43.0% among the highest-risk individuals, suggesting good risk stratification across all models. Current AMI-specific readmission risk prediction models have modest predictive ability and uncertain generalizability given methodological limitations. No existing models provide actionable information in real time to enable early identification and risk-stratification of patients with AMI before hospital discharge, a functionality needed to optimize the potential effectiveness of readmission reduction interventions

  15. Living with risk. A global review of disaster reduction initiatives. Preliminary version

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-01-01

    In recent years the world has witnessed an interminable succession of disasters - floods, storms, earthquakes, landslides, volcanic eruptions and wildfires that have claimed many thousands of lives, caused material losses in the tens of billions of dollars, and inflicted a terrible toll on developing countries in particular, where disasters divert attention and resources needed desperately to escape poverty. Communities will always face natural hazards, but today's disasters are often generated by, or at least exacerbated by, human activities. At the most dramatic level, human activities are changing the natural balance of the earth, interfering as never before with the atmosphere, the oceans, the polar ice caps, the forest cover and the natural pillars that make our world a livable home. But we are also putting ourselves in harm's way in less visible ways. At no time in human history have so many people lived in cities clustered around seismically active areas. Destitution and demographic pressure have led more people than ever before to live in flood plains or in areas prone to landslides. Poor land-use planning; environmental mismanagement; and a lack of regulatory mechanisms both increase the risk and exacerbate the effects of disasters. Living with risk: a global review of disaster reduction is the first comprehensive effort by the United Nations system to take stock of disaster reduction initiatives throughout the world. Coordinated by the secretariat of the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR), the report discusses current disaster trends, assesses policies aimed at mitigating the impact of disasters, and offers examples of successful initiatives. It also recommends that risk reduction be integrated into sustainable development at all levels - global, national and local. Most of all, Living with risk shows that we are far from helpless in the face of natural hazards. Early warning and risk reduction measures have been important factors in

  16. Modelling stillbirth mortality reduction with the Lives Saved Tool

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hannah Blencowe

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The worldwide burden of stillbirths is large, with an estimated 2.6 million babies stillborn in 2015 including 1.3 million dying during labour. The Every Newborn Action Plan set a stillbirth target of ≤12 per 1000 in all countries by 2030. Planning tools will be essential as countries set policy and plan investment to scale up interventions to meet this target. This paper summarises the approach taken for modelling the impact of scaling-up health interventions on stillbirths in the Lives Saved tool (LiST, and potential future refinements. Methods The specific application to stillbirths of the general method for modelling the impact of interventions in LiST is described. The evidence for the effectiveness of potential interventions to reduce stillbirths are reviewed and the assumptions of the affected fraction of stillbirths who could potentially benefit from these interventions are presented. The current assumptions and their effects on stillbirth reduction are described and potential future improvements discussed. Results High quality evidence are not available for all parameters in the LiST stillbirth model. Cause-specific mortality data is not available for stillbirths, therefore stillbirths are modelled in LiST using an attributable fraction approach by timing of stillbirths (antepartum/ intrapartum. Of 35 potential interventions to reduce stillbirths identified, eight interventions are currently modelled in LiST. These include childbirth care, induction for prolonged pregnancy, multiple micronutrient and balanced energy supplementation, malaria prevention and detection and management of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, diabetes and syphilis. For three of the interventions, childbirth care, detection and management of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, and diabetes the estimate of effectiveness is based on expert opinion through a Delphi process. Only for malaria is coverage information available, with coverage

  17. GEO activities towards improved Geophysical monitoring. A key input to Disaster Risk Reduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Achache, J.; Rum, G.

    2007-05-01

    GEO has been established in 2005 with the main objective to put in place a Global, Coordinated, Comprehensive and Sustained System of Observing Systems (GEOSS) to serve 9 Social Benefit Areas, among which Disaster Risk Reduction. The paper will first set up the reference GEO framework, through a brief description of GEOSS key features, architectural functions and capacity building, and then will recall the value of the Geophysical observations, coming both from in situ and remote (satellite) systems, and, even more important, of their integration. GEO activities related to Geophysical monitoring and the use of related observation to foster social benefits in the Disaster Risk Reduction area will then be shortly described, together with the on-going key actions, including specific examples on key scientific/technical and data sharing aspects associated to GEOSS implementation. Special attention will be devoted on how Capacity Building strategy and activities are addressed through GEOSS development, building on infrastructure and programs under consolidation within GEO framework, such as the GEOSS Information collection and dissemination systems under development (GEONETCast, GEO Web Portal, GEO Clearinghouse) and the UN programs such as SPIDER (SPace based Information for Disaster management and Emergency Response) and UNOSAT. The paper will provide recommendations on the way forward for the implementation of Disaster Risk Management provisions as an integral part of sustainable development, also with the objective of creating within GEO a supporting framework to UNDP and World Bank activities on Risk Identification and Assessment.

  18. A Group Intervention for HIV/STI Risk Reduction among Indian Couples

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ritu Nehra

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: HIV in India is transmitted primarily by heterosexual contact. The present study sought to test the feasibility of a group HIV/STI risk reduction intervention among heterosexual couples in India. Methods: Focus groups and key informant interviews were used in 2008 to culturally tailor the intervention. Thirty sexually active and HIV/STI negative couples were enrolled and assessed regarding risk behavior and sexual barrier acceptability. Gender-concordant group sessions used cognitive behavioral strategies for HIV/STI prevention. Results: At baseline, male condom use was low (36%; no participants reported use of female condoms or vaginal gels. HIV knowledge was low; women had more HIV knowledge and more positive attitudes towards condom use than men. Post-intervention, willingness to use all barrier products (t = 10.0, P< .001 and intentions to avoid risk behavior increased (t = 5.62, P< .001. Conclusion: This study illustrates the feasibility of utilizing a group intervention to enhance HIV/STI risk reduction among Indian couples.

  19. Walking versus running for hypertension, cholesterol, and diabetes mellitus risk reduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Paul T; Thompson, Paul D

    2013-05-01

    To test whether equivalent energy expenditure by moderate-intensity (eg, walking) and vigorous-intensity exercise (eg, running) provides equivalent health benefits. We used the National Runners' (n=33 060) and Walkers' (n=15 945) Health Study cohorts to examine the effect of differences in exercise mode and thereby exercise intensity on coronary heart disease (CHD) risk factors. Baseline expenditure (metabolic equivant hours per day [METh/d]) was compared with self-reported, physician-diagnosed incident hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, diabetes mellitus, and CHD during 6.2 years follow-up. Running significantly decreased the risks for incident hypertension by 4.2% (Pdiabetes mellitus by 12.1% (Phypertension; and (3) 43.5%, 44.1%, 47.7%, and 68.2% from running, and 34.1%, 44.2% and 23.6% from walking for diabetes mellitus (walking >5.4 METh/d excluded for too few cases). The risk reductions were not significantly different for running than walking for diabetes mellitus (P=0.94), hypertension (P=0.06), or CHD (P=0.26), and only marginally greater for walking than running for hypercholesterolemia (P=0.04). Equivalent energy expenditures by moderate (walking) and vigorous (running) exercise produced similar risk reductions for hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, diabetes mellitus, and possibly CHD.

  20. A Network Model of Credit Risk Contagion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ting-Qiang Chen

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available A network model of credit risk contagion is presented, in which the effect of behaviors of credit risk holders and the financial market regulators and the network structure are considered. By introducing the stochastic dominance theory, we discussed, respectively, the effect mechanisms of the degree of individual relationship, individual attitude to credit risk contagion, the individual ability to resist credit risk contagion, the monitoring strength of the financial market regulators, and the network structure on credit risk contagion. Then some derived and proofed propositions were verified through numerical simulations.

  1. Gastric Bypass Surgery Produces a Durable Reduction in Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors and Reduces the Long-Term Risks of Congestive Heart Failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benotti, Peter N; Wood, G Craig; Carey, David J; Mehra, Vishal C; Mirshahi, Tooraj; Lent, Michelle R; Petrick, Anthony T; Still, Christopher; Gerhard, Glenn S; Hirsch, Annemarie G

    2017-05-23

    Obesity and its association with reduced life expectancy are well established, with cardiovascular disease as one of the major causes of fatality. Metabolic surgery is a powerful intervention for severe obesity, resulting in improvement in comorbid diseases and in cardiovascular risk factors. This study investigates the relationship between metabolic surgery and long-term cardiovascular events. A cohort of Roux-en-Y gastric bypass surgery (RYGB) patients was tightly matched by age, body mass index, sex, Framingham Risk Score, smoking history, use of antihypertension medication, diabetes mellitus status, and calendar year with a concurrent cohort of nonoperated control patients. The primary study end points of major cardiovascular events (myocardial infarction, stroke, and congestive heart failure) were evaluated using Cox regression. Secondary end points of longitudinal cardiovascular risk factors were evaluated using repeated-measures regression. The RYGB and matched controls (N=1724 in each cohort) were followed for up to 12 years after surgery (overall median of 6.3 years). Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed a statistically significant reduction in incident major composite cardiovascular events ( P =0.017) and congestive heart failure (0.0077) for the RYGB cohort. Adjusted Cox regression models confirmed the reductions in severe composite cardiovascular events in the RYGB cohort (hazard ratio=0.58, 95% CI=0.42-0.82). Improvements of cardiovascular risk factors (eg, 10-year cardiovascular risk score, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein, systolic blood pressure, and diabetes mellitus) were observed within the RYGB cohort after surgery. Gastric bypass is associated with a reduced risk of major cardiovascular events and the development of congestive heart failure. © 2017 The Authors and Geisinger Clinic. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

  2. Risk analysis local grids. Mapping and reduction of risks in electric power grids; Riskanalysmetod lokalnaet. Kartlaeggning och reduktion av risker i elnaet

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kylefors, Martin; Fredholm, Lotta; Sandstroem, Cecilia

    2007-11-15

    The objective of the project has been to contribute to development of risk analysis applications that correspond to the need of investments as an effect of new regulation. The aim has been to develop a method for screening and assessing risks, and for ranking risk reducing measures in order of priority. Phase 1 has consisted of an overview of methods, selection of appropriate methods, and development of principles regarding application suitable for power distribution companies. Phase 2 has consisted of adjustments and tests of the method. The method focuses on risks associated with power failures, with a duration exceeding 12 hours, in medium voltage local networks. Stations are excluded. The suggested method is based on principles of Preliminary Hazard Analysis and Cost-Benefit Analysis. Risks are suggested to be assessed based on three main factors (load, exposure and alternative supply). The quota between the highest and lowest value is 20 for each factor. Each factor is assessed by underlying factors such as type of cable/wire, number of customers and average power consumption. By multiplying the factors a resulting risk level is obtained in the range of 0.05 to 400. The level determines the need for further investments. Appropriate risk reducing measure is selected by putting the risk reduction (benefit) in relation to the total costs for investment and maintenance, for each alternative measure. There is a further need for development of a method for stations. There is also a further need for development of a priority model in city networks where power failures less than 12 hours are taken into account. Finally there is a need to turn the functional requirement (no power failures exceeding 24 hours) into an acceptable risk level

  3. Expert judgement models in quantitative risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rosqvist, T. [VTT Automation, Helsinki (Finland); Tuominen, R. [VTT Automation, Tampere (Finland)

    1999-12-01

    Expert judgement is a valuable source of information in risk management. Especially, risk-based decision making relies significantly on quantitative risk assessment, which requires numerical data describing the initiator event frequencies and conditional probabilities in the risk model. This data is seldom found in databases and has to be elicited from qualified experts. In this report, we discuss some modelling approaches to expert judgement in risk modelling. A classical and a Bayesian expert model is presented and applied to real case expert judgement data. The cornerstone in the models is the log-normal distribution, which is argued to be a satisfactory choice for modelling degree-of-belief type probability distributions with respect to the unknown parameters in a risk model. Expert judgements are qualified according to bias, dispersion, and dependency, which are treated differently in the classical and Bayesian approaches. The differences are pointed out and related to the application task. Differences in the results obtained from the different approaches, as applied to real case expert judgement data, are discussed. Also, the role of a degree-of-belief type probability in risk decision making is discussed.

  4. Expert judgement models in quantitative risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosqvist, T.; Tuominen, R.

    1999-01-01

    Expert judgement is a valuable source of information in risk management. Especially, risk-based decision making relies significantly on quantitative risk assessment, which requires numerical data describing the initiator event frequencies and conditional probabilities in the risk model. This data is seldom found in databases and has to be elicited from qualified experts. In this report, we discuss some modelling approaches to expert judgement in risk modelling. A classical and a Bayesian expert model is presented and applied to real case expert judgement data. The cornerstone in the models is the log-normal distribution, which is argued to be a satisfactory choice for modelling degree-of-belief type probability distributions with respect to the unknown parameters in a risk model. Expert judgements are qualified according to bias, dispersion, and dependency, which are treated differently in the classical and Bayesian approaches. The differences are pointed out and related to the application task. Differences in the results obtained from the different approaches, as applied to real case expert judgement data, are discussed. Also, the role of a degree-of-belief type probability in risk decision making is discussed

  5. Update on Risk Reduction Activities for a Liquid Advanced Booster for NASA's Space Launch System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crocker, Andrew M.; Greene, William D.

    2017-01-01

    The stated goals of NASA's Research Announcement for the Space Launch System (SLS) Advanced Booster Engineering Demonstration and/or Risk Reduction (ABEDRR) are to reduce risks leading to an affordable Advanced Booster that meets the evolved capabilities of SLS and enable competition by mitigating targeted Advanced Booster risks to enhance SLS affordability. Dynetics, Inc. and Aerojet Rocketdyne (AR) formed a team to offer a wide-ranging set of risk reduction activities and full-scale, system-level demonstrations that support NASA's ABEDRR goals. During the ABEDRR effort, the Dynetics Team has modified flight-proven Apollo-Saturn F-1 engine components and subsystems to improve affordability and reliability (e.g., reduce parts counts, touch labor, or use lower cost manufacturing processes and materials). The team has built hardware to validate production costs and completed tests to demonstrate it can meet performance requirements. State-of-the-art manufacturing and processing techniques have been applied to the heritage F-1, resulting in a low recurring cost engine while retaining the benefits of Apollo-era experience. NASA test facilities have been used to perform low-cost risk-reduction engine testing. In early 2014, NASA and the Dynetics Team agreed to move additional large liquid oxygen/kerosene engine work under Dynetics' ABEDRR contract. Also led by AR, the objectives of this work are to demonstrate combustion stability and measure performance of a 500,000 lbf class Oxidizer-Rich Staged Combustion (ORSC) cycle main injector. A trade study was completed to investigate the feasibility, cost effectiveness, and technical maturity of a domestically-produced engine that could potentially both replace the RD-180 on Atlas V and satisfy NASA SLS payload-to-orbit requirements via an advanced booster application. Engine physical dimensions and performance parameters resulting from this study provide the system level requirements for the ORSC risk reduction test article

  6. Analysis of risk reduction methods for interfacing system LOCAs [loss-of-coolant accidents] at PWRs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bozoki, G.; Kohut, P.; Fitzpatrick, R.

    1988-01-01

    The Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) predicted that Interfacing System Loss-of-Coolant Accidents (ISL) events were significant contributors to risk even though they were calculated to be relatively low frequency events. However, there are substantial uncertainties involved in determining the probability and consequences of the ISL sequences. For example, the assumed valve failure modes, common cause contributions and the location of the break/leak are all uncertain and can significantly influence the predicted risk from ISL events. In order to provide more realistic estimates for the core damage frequencies (CDFs) and a reduction in the magnitude of the uncertainties, a reexamination of ISL scenarios at PWRs has been performed by Brookhaven National Laboratory. The objective of this study was to investigate the vulnerability of pressurized water reactor designs to ISLs and identify any improvements that could significantly reduce the frequency/risk of these events

  7. Risk modelling study for carotid endarterectomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuhan, G; Gardiner, E D; Abidia, A F; Chetter, I C; Renwick, P M; Johnson, B F; Wilkinson, A R; McCollum, P T

    2001-12-01

    The aims of this study were to identify factors that influence the risk of stroke or death following carotid endarterectomy (CEA) and to develop a model to aid in comparative audit of vascular surgeons and units. A series of 839 CEAs performed by four vascular surgeons between 1992 and 1999 was analysed. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to model the effect of 15 possible risk factors on the 30-day risk of stroke or death. Outcome was compared for four surgeons and two units after adjustment for the significant risk factors. The overall 30-day stroke or death rate was 3.9 per cent (29 of 741). Heart disease, diabetes and stroke were significant risk factors. The 30-day predicted stroke or death rates increased with increasing risk scores. The observed 30-day stroke or death rate was 3.9 per cent for both vascular units and varied from 3.0 to 4.2 per cent for the four vascular surgeons. Differences in the outcomes between the surgeons and vascular units did not reach statistical significance after risk adjustment. Diabetes, heart disease and stroke are significant risk factors for stroke or death following CEA. The risk score model identified patients at higher risk and aided in comparative audit.

  8. Modeling Exposure to Persistent Chemicals in Hazard and Risk Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cowan-Ellsberry, Christina E.; McLachlan, Michael S.; Arnot, Jon A.; MacLeod, Matthew; McKone, Thomas E.; Wania, Frank

    2008-11-01

    Fate and exposure modeling has not thus far been explicitly used in the risk profile documents prepared to evaluate significant adverse effect of candidate chemicals for either the Stockholm Convention or the Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution. However, we believe models have considerable potential to improve the risk profiles. Fate and exposure models are already used routinely in other similar regulatory applications to inform decisions, and they have been instrumental in building our current understanding of the fate of POP and PBT chemicals in the environment. The goal of this paper is to motivate the use of fate and exposure models in preparing risk profiles in the POP assessment procedure by providing strategies for incorporating and using models. The ways that fate and exposure models can be used to improve and inform the development of risk profiles include: (1) Benchmarking the ratio of exposure and emissions of candidate chemicals to the same ratio for known POPs, thereby opening the possibility of combining this ratio with the relative emissions and relative toxicity to arrive at a measure of relative risk. (2) Directly estimating the exposure of the environment, biota and humans to provide information to complement measurements, or where measurements are not available or are limited. (3) To identify the key processes and chemical and/or environmental parameters that determine the exposure; thereby allowing the effective prioritization of research or measurements to improve the risk profile. (4) Predicting future time trends including how quickly exposure levels in remote areas would respond to reductions in emissions. Currently there is no standardized consensus model for use in the risk profile context. Therefore, to choose the appropriate model the risk profile developer must evaluate how appropriate an existing model is for a specific setting and whether the assumptions and input data are relevant in the context of the application

  9. Modeling exposure to persistent chemicals in hazard and risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cowan-Ellsberry, Christina E; McLachlan, Michael S; Arnot, Jon A; Macleod, Matthew; McKone, Thomas E; Wania, Frank

    2009-10-01

    Fate and exposure modeling has not, thus far, been explicitly used in the risk profile documents prepared for evaluating the significant adverse effect of candidate chemicals for either the Stockholm Convention or the Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution. However, we believe models have considerable potential to improve the risk profiles. Fate and exposure models are already used routinely in other similar regulatory applications to inform decisions, and they have been instrumental in building our current understanding of the fate of persistent organic pollutants (POP) and persistent, bioaccumulative, and toxic (PBT) chemicals in the environment. The goal of this publication is to motivate the use of fate and exposure models in preparing risk profiles in the POP assessment procedure by providing strategies for incorporating and using models. The ways that fate and exposure models can be used to improve and inform the development of risk profiles include 1) benchmarking the ratio of exposure and emissions of candidate chemicals to the same ratio for known POPs, thereby opening the possibility of combining this ratio with the relative emissions and relative toxicity to arrive at a measure of relative risk; 2) directly estimating the exposure of the environment, biota, and humans to provide information to complement measurements or where measurements are not available or are limited; 3) to identify the key processes and chemical or environmental parameters that determine the exposure, thereby allowing the effective prioritization of research or measurements to improve the risk profile; and 4) forecasting future time trends, including how quickly exposure levels in remote areas would respond to reductions in emissions. Currently there is no standardized consensus model for use in the risk profile context. Therefore, to choose the appropriate model the risk profile developer must evaluate how appropriate an existing model is for a specific setting and

  10. Fast uncertainty reduction strategies relying on Gaussian process models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chevalier, Clement

    2013-01-01

    This work deals with sequential and batch-sequential evaluation strategies of real-valued functions under limited evaluation budget, using Gaussian process models. Optimal Stepwise Uncertainty Reduction (SUR) strategies are investigated for two different problems, motivated by real test cases in nuclear safety. First we consider the problem of identifying the excursion set above a given threshold T of a real-valued function f. Then we study the question of finding the set of 'safe controlled configurations', i.e. the set of controlled inputs where the function remains below T, whatever the value of some others non-controlled inputs. New SUR strategies are presented, together with efficient procedures and formulas to compute and use them in real world applications. The use of fast formulas to recalculate quickly the posterior mean or covariance function of a Gaussian process (referred to as the 'kriging update formulas') does not only provide substantial computational savings. It is also one of the key tools to derive closed form formulas enabling a practical use of computationally-intensive sampling strategies. A contribution in batch-sequential optimization (with the multi-points Expected Improvement) is also presented. (author)

  11. Competing Risks Copula Models for Unemployment Duration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lo, Simon M. S.; Stephan, Gesine; Wilke, Ralf

    2017-01-01

    The copula graphic estimator (CGE) for competing risks models has received little attention in empirical research, despite having been developed into a comprehensive research method. In this paper, we bridge the gap between theoretical developments and applied research by considering a general...... class of competing risks copula models, which nests popular models such as the Cox proportional hazards model, the semiparametric multivariate mixed proportional hazards model (MMPHM), and the CGE as special cases. Analyzing the effects of a German Hartz reform on unemployment duration, we illustrate...

  12. Sexual risk-reduction strategies among HIV-infected men receiving ART in Kibera, Nairobi.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ragnarsson, Anders; Thorson, Anna; Dover, Paul; Carter, Jane; Ilako, Festus; Indalo, Dorcas; Ekstrom, Anna Mia

    2011-03-01

    This paper explores motivational factors and barriers to sexual behaviour change among men receiving antiretroviral treatment (ART). Twenty in-depth interviews were undertaken with male patients enrolled at the African Medical and Research Foundation clinic in Africa's largest urban informal settlement, Kibera in Nairobi, Kenya. All participants experienced prolonged and severe illness prior to the initiation of ART. Fear of symptom relapse was the main trigger for sexual behaviour change. Partner reduction was reported as a first option for behaviour change since this decision could be made by the individual. Condom use was perceived as more difficult as it had to be negotiated with female partners. Cultural norms regarding expectations for reproduction and marriage were not supportive of sexual risk-reduction strategies. Thus, local sociocultural contexts of HIV-infected people must be incorporated into the contextual adaptation and design of ART programmes and services as they have an over-riding influence on sexual behaviour and programme effectiveness. Also, HIV-prevention interventions need to address both personal, micro- and macro-level factors of behaviour to encourage individuals to take on sexual risk-reduction strategies. In order to achieve the anticipated preventive effect of ART, these issues are important for the donor community and policy-makers, who are the major providers of ART programme support within weak health systems in sub-Saharan Africa.

  13. Closed reduction of slipped capital femoral epiphysis: high-risk factor for avascular necrosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kitano, Toshio; Nakagawa, Keisuke; Wada, Mayuko; Moriyama, Michiko

    2015-07-01

    How should we treat acute/unstable slipped capital femoral epiphysis (SCFE) without the development of avascular necrosis (AVN)? To answer this question, we investigated the risk factors of AVN development after SCFE. Seventy-six hips of 64 patients were classified using two kinds of classification systems, Loder's classification based on instability and the conventional classification based on the duration of symptom, because both classifications are related to AVN development. Of 21 unstable SCFEs, seven hips developed AVN. Of 35 hips defined as acute or acute on chronic, nine hips developed AVN. Two stable SCFEs of Loder's classification developed AVN, one was acute and the other was acute on chronic. No hips of chronic SCFE developed AVN. The factor that had influenced AVN development was only closed reduction, whether purposefully or inadvertently, in an acute or unstable SCFE. On the basis of the findings of this study, one should not embark on any modality of closed reduction for an unstable or acute form of SCFE, as there is a high risk for occurrence of AVN. For the same reason, a traction table should not be used for SCFE fixation, so as to avoid an inadvertent reduction or force that can lead to AVN.

  14. Constructing post-carbon institutions: Assessing EU carbon reduction efforts through an institutional risk governance approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    LaBelle, Michael

    2012-01-01

    This paper examines three different governance approaches the European Union (EU) and Member States (MS) are relying on to reach a low carbon economy by 2050. Current governance literature explains the operational methods of the EU's new governance approach to reduce carbon emissions. However, the literature neglects to account for the perceived risks that inhibit the roll-out of new low carbon technology. This article, through a novel approach, uses a grounded theoretical framework to reframe traditional risk literature and provides a connection to governance literature in order to assess the ability of EU governance mechanisms to reduce carbon emissions. The empirical research is based on responses from European energy stakeholders who participated in a Delphi method discussion and in semi-structured interviews; these identified three essential requirements for carbon emissions to be reduced to near zero by 2050: (1) an integrated European energy network, (2) carbon pricing and (3) demand reduction. These features correspond to institutionalized responses by the EU and MS: the Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER); European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) and energy efficiency directives and policies integrated into existing MS institutions. The theoretical and empirical findings suggest that governance by facilitation (energy efficiency) fails to induce significant investment and new policy approaches and cannot be relied on to achieve requisite reductions in demand. Governance by negotiation (ACER) and governance by hierarchy (EU ETS) do reduce risks and may encourage the necessary technological uptake. The term ‘risk governance’ is used to explain the important role governance plays in reducing risks and advancing new technology and thereby lowering carbon emissions in the energy sector. - Highlights: ► This article assesses the role of EU institutions in reducing carbon emissions by 2050. ► Empirical research is based on Delphi

  15. Risk Monitoring through Traceability Information Model

    OpenAIRE

    Juan P. Zamora; Wilson Adarme; Laura Palacios

    2012-01-01

    This paper shows a traceability framework for supply risk monitoring, beginning with the identification, analysis, and evaluation of the supply chain risk and focusing on the supply operations of the Health Care Institutions with oncology services in Bogota, Colombia. It includes a brief presentation of the state of the art of the Supply Chain Risk Management and traceability systems in logistics operations, and it concludes with the methodology to integrate the SCRM model with the traceabili...

  16. Assessing urban potential flooding risk and identifying effective risk-reduction measures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cherqui, Frédéric; Belmeziti, Ali; Granger, Damien; Sourdril, Antoine; Le Gauffre, Pascal

    2015-05-01

    Flood protection is one of the traditional functions of any drainage system, and it remains a major issue in many cities because of economic and health impact. Heavy rain flooding has been well studied and existing simulation software can be used to predict and improve level of protection. However, simulating minor flooding remains highly complex, due to the numerous possible causes related to operational deficiencies or negligent behaviour. According to the literature, causes of blockages vary widely from one case to another: it is impossible to provide utility managers with effective recommendations on how to improve the level of protection. It is therefore vital to analyse each context in order to define an appropriate strategy. Here we propose a method to represent and assess the flooding risk, using GIS and data gathered during operation and maintenance. Our method also identifies potential management responses. The approach proposed aims to provide decision makers with clear and comprehensible information. Our method has been successfully applied to the Urban Community of Bordeaux (France) on 4895 interventions related to flooding recorded during the 2009-2011 period. Results have shown the relative importance of different issues, such as human behaviour (grease, etc.) or operational deficiencies (roots, etc.), and lead to identify corrective and proactive. This study also confirms that blockages are not always directly due to the network itself and its deterioration. Many causes depend on environmental and operating conditions on the network and often require collaboration between municipal departments in charge of roads, green spaces, etc. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. Criterion of Semi-Markov Dependent Risk Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xiao Yun MO; Xiang Qun YANG

    2014-01-01

    A rigorous definition of semi-Markov dependent risk model is given. This model is a generalization of the Markov dependent risk model. A criterion and necessary conditions of semi-Markov dependent risk model are obtained. The results clarify relations between elements among semi-Markov dependent risk model more clear and are applicable for Markov dependent risk model.

  18. Risk management model of winter navigation operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Valdez Banda, Osiris A.; Goerlandt, Floris; Kuzmin, Vladimir; Kujala, Pentti; Montewka, Jakub

    2016-01-01

    The wintertime maritime traffic operations in the Gulf of Finland are managed through the Finnish–Swedish Winter Navigation System. This establishes the requirements and limitations for the vessels navigating when ice covers this area. During winter navigation in the Gulf of Finland, the largest risk stems from accidental ship collisions which may also trigger oil spills. In this article, a model for managing the risk of winter navigation operations is presented. The model analyses the probability of oil spills derived from collisions involving oil tanker vessels and other vessel types. The model structure is based on the steps provided in the Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) and adapted into a Bayesian Network model. The results indicate that ship independent navigation and convoys are the operations with higher probability of oil spills. Minor spills are most probable, while major oil spills found very unlikely but possible. - Highlights: •A model to assess and manage the risk of winter navigation operations is proposed. •The risks of oil spills in winter navigation in the Gulf of Finland are analysed. •The model assesses and prioritizes actions to control the risk of the operations. •The model suggests navigational training as the most efficient risk control option.

  19. Clinical utility of rosuvastatin and other statins for cardiovascular risk reduction among the elderly

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sydney B Long

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Sydney B Long, Michael J Blaha, Roger S Blumenthal, Erin D MichosJohns Hopkins Ciccarone Center for the Prevention of Heart Disease, Baltimore, MD, USAAbstract: Age is one of the strongest predictors of cardiovascular disease (CVD risk. Treatment with statins can significantly reduce CVD events and mortality in both primary and secondary prevention. Yet despite the high CVD risk among the elderly, there is underutilization of statins in this population (ie, the treatment-risk paradox. Few studies have investigated the use of statins in the elderly, particularly for primary prevention and, as a result, guidelines for treating the elderly are limited. This is likely due to: uncertainties of risk assessment in older individuals where the predictive value of individual risk factors is decreased; the need to balance the benefits of primary prevention with the risks of polypharmacy, health care costs, and adverse medication effects in a population with decreased life expectancy; the complexity of treating patients with many other comorbidities; and increasingly difficult social and economic concerns. As life expectancy increases and the total elderly population grows, these issues become increasingly important. JUPITER (Justification for the Use of statins in Prevention: an Intervention Trial Evaluating Rosuvastatin is the largest primary prevention statin trial to date and enrolled a substantial number of elderly adults. Among the 5695 JUPITER participants ≥70 years of age, the absolute CVD risk reduction associated with rosuvastatin was actually greater than for younger participants. The implications of this JUPITER subanalysis and the broader role of statins among older adults is the subject of this review.Keywords: JUPITER, rosuvastatin, elderly, risk

  20. Reduction of Risk Factors in Patients with Behavioral Dysphonia After Vocal Group Therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, Wégina Jordâna Nascimento da; Lopes, Leonardo Wanderley; Macedo, Anny Elizabety Ramalho de; Costa, Denise Batista da; Almeida, Anna Alice Figueiredo de

    2017-01-01

    The origin and development of dysphonia, particularly behavioral dysphonia, is associated with several risk factors. Here, we verified the effectiveness of group therapy in reducing the risk factors, and established the association between risk factors and sex, age, profession, and diagnosis of laryngeal disorders in patients with behavioral dysphonia. This is a descriptive, quantitative, field intervention study. Participants (n = 26, adult patients of both sexes), with a diagnosis of behavioral dysphonia, received group therapy intervention. Data for risk factors were collected pre- and posttherapy using the Vocal Screening Protocol. The data were analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistics (Student t test, chi-squared test or Spearman correlation test). The majority (80.8%, n = 21) of patients were female, 65.4% (n = 17) were not in a vocal profession, and 42.3% (n = 11) presented with a lesion in the membranous portion of the vocal fold. The number of personal risk factors decreased after group therapy (P = 0.04). In addition, age was correlated with total (P = 0.001), environmental (P = 0.002), and personal (P = 0.003) vocal risk factors posttherapy. This study revealed an association between the reduction of personal risk factors and vocal group therapy, and a correlation between age and total, environmental, and personal vocal risk factors posttherapy. Thus, maintenance and origins of the behaviors that modify the behavioral aspects of the participants directly influence the production of individual vocal habits. Copyright © 2017 The Voice Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Oxygen reduction kinetics on mixed conducting SOFC model cathodes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baumann, F.S.

    2006-07-01

    The kinetics of the oxygen reduction reaction at the surface of mixed conducting solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) cathodes is one of the main limiting factors to the performance of these promising systems. For ''realistic'' porous electrodes, however, it is usually very difficult to separate the influence of different resistive processes. Therefore, a suitable, geometrically well-defined model system was used in this work to enable an unambiguous distinction of individual electrochemical processes by means of impedance spectroscopy. The electrochemical measurements were performed on dense thin film microelectrodes, prepared by PLD and photolithography, of mixed conducting perovskite-type materials. The first part of the thesis consists of an extensive impedance spectroscopic investigation of La0.6Sr0.4Co0.8Fe0.2O3 (LSCF) microelectrodes. An equivalent circuit was identified that describes the electrochemical properties of the model electrodes appropriately and enables an unambiguous interpretation of the measured impedance spectra. Hence, the dependencies of individual electrochemical processes such as the surface exchange reaction on a wide range of experimental parameters including temperature, dc bias and oxygen partial pressure could be studied. As a result, a comprehensive set of experimental data has been obtained, which was previously not available for a mixed conducting model system. In the course of the experiments on the dc bias dependence of the electrochemical processes a new and surprising effect was discovered: It could be shown that a short but strong dc polarisation of a LSCF microelectrode at high temperature improves its electrochemical performance with respect to the oxygen reduction reaction drastically. The electrochemical resistance associated with the oxygen surface exchange reaction, initially the dominant contribution to the total electrode resistance, can be reduced by two orders of magnitude. This &apos

  2. Update on Risk Reduction Activities for a Liquid Advanced Booster for NASA's Space Launch System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crocker, Andrew M.; Doering, Kimberly B; Meadows, Robert G.; Lariviere, Brian W.; Graham, Jerry B.

    2015-01-01

    The stated goals of NASA's Research Announcement for the Space Launch System (SLS) Advanced Booster Engineering Demonstration and/or Risk Reduction (ABEDRR) are to reduce risks leading to an affordable Advanced Booster that meets the evolved capabilities of SLS; and enable competition by mitigating targeted Advanced Booster risks to enhance SLS affordability. Dynetics, Inc. and Aerojet Rocketdyne (AR) formed a team to offer a wide-ranging set of risk reduction activities and full-scale, system-level demonstrations that support NASA's ABEDRR goals. For NASA's SLS ABEDRR procurement, Dynetics and AR formed a team to offer a series of full-scale risk mitigation hardware demonstrations for an affordable booster approach that meets the evolved capabilities of the SLS. To establish a basis for the risk reduction activities, the Dynetics Team developed a booster design that takes advantage of the flight-proven Apollo-Saturn F-1. Using NASA's vehicle assumptions for the SLS Block 2, a two-engine, F-1-based booster design delivers 150 mT (331 klbm) payload to LEO, 20 mT (44 klbm) above NASA's requirements. This enables a low-cost, robust approach to structural design. During the ABEDRR effort, the Dynetics Team has modified proven Apollo-Saturn components and subsystems to improve affordability and reliability (e.g., reduce parts counts, touch labor, or use lower cost manufacturing processes and materials). The team has built hardware to validate production costs and completed tests to demonstrate it can meet performance requirements. State-of-the-art manufacturing and processing techniques have been applied to the heritage F-1, resulting in a low recurring cost engine while retaining the benefits of Apollo-era experience. NASA test facilities have been used to perform low-cost risk-reduction engine testing. In early 2014, NASA and the Dynetics Team agreed to move additional large liquid oxygen/kerosene engine work under Dynetics' ABEDRR contract. Also led by AR, the

  3. Cost-effectiveness analysis of risk reduction at nuclear power plants: What have we learned from experience

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lochard, J.; Pages, P.

    1984-01-01

    Within the field of risk management techniques, cost-effectiveness analysis of risk reduction is now recognized as an adequate method for evaluating and defining the optimal allocation of protection and safety resources within large industrial systems. The paper considers some of the issues that arise in connection with cost-effectiveness analysis of risk reduction at nuclear power stations. Particular attention is called to both the interdependence between criteria that characterize risk reduction problems and the resulting aggregation and weighting procedures needed when the multidimensionality of criteria is explicitly taken into account. The discussion of these problems is illustrated with results of case studies on both public and occupational risk reduction at French PWRs during normal operation. (author)

  4. Use of GIS in the estimation and development of risk reduction technology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ha, Jae Joo

    1998-03-01

    The occurrence probability of a severe accident in the nuclear power plant is very small because the safety of a plant and the public is considered in the design and operation of a nuclear power plant. However, if a severe accident occurs, the establishment of a reduction strategy of damages resulting from it is essential because the effect of it on the human and the environment is very large. The important criterion which determines the severity of an accident is risk, which is defined as the product of its frequently and the consequence. The establishment of countermeasures in order to estimate and reduce risks quantitatively can be a very powerful tool to minimize the effect of an accident on the human and the environment. The research on the establishment of a framework which integrates a geographic information system (GIS), a database management system (DBMS), and decision making support system (DMSS) is considered very actively. Based on these systems, we can accomplish the estimation and display of risks and the development of reduction methodologies which are essential parts of an accident management of a nuclear power plant. The GIS plays a role to support users to systematize and comprehend spatial relationships of information which are necessary for the decision making. Through the DBMS, we can establish and manage spatial and attribute data, and use them in the query and selection. The DMSS is a computer-based information system which makes a necessary decision easily. In this study, we reviewed the fundamental concepts of a GIS and examined the methodology for the use of it in the estimation and display of risks. Also, we established the fundamental GIS platform of a Yonggwang site and the necessary database systems for the estimation of risks. (author). 17 refs., 9 tabs., 34 figs

  5. Effectiveness of Methadone in Reduction of High Risk Behaviors in Clients of MMT Center

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F Ehsani

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Addiction as a social, health problem with its specific complications threatens societies. High risk behaviors such as violence, self mutilation, tattooing, shared injections and unprotected sex behaviors are some of the problems in addicts that need to be treated. One of these treatments is methadone therapy. The purpose of this study was to evaluate effectiveness of methadone in prevention or reduction of high risk behaviors in clients of a MMT center of Shaheed Sadoughi University of medical sciences of Yazd. Methods: This study was done on 93 clients of a MMT center.Questionnaire for this study included items from MAP and questions about some other risky behaviors. This questionnaire was completed at onset of treatment and 6 months after. Data was analyzed with SPSS software program Results: 89.2% of participants were married and 10.8% were single. 63.5% of them were in the20-40 years age group. Most commonly abused substances were heroin and opium. Before onset of treatment, 37.6% of participants had history of imprisonment, 35.5% had shared injections, 32.3%had had unprotected sex, 22.6%had tattooing and 5.4%had mutilated their own selves. Only 36.6% didn’t have any high risk behavior. These behaviors were more common in heroin users and in the20-40 years age group. After onset of treatment and during 6 month of MMT, 86% of clients didn’t have any risky behavior. Only 14%of them continued to have unsafe sex behaviors Conclusion: Addiction can cause high risk behaviors. Data in this paper suggests that young age, heroin use, low education level and no or inadequate information about addictive substances and their consequences are effective and important factors that cause high risk behaviors. Treatment of addicts with methadone maintenance therapy plays an important role in reduction of risky behaviors. Development of appropriate and more MMT centers are recommended.

  6. Consistent model reduction of polymer chains in solution in dissipative particle dynamics: Model description

    KAUST Repository

    Moreno Chaparro, Nicolas

    2015-06-30

    We introduce a framework for model reduction of polymer chain models for dissipative particle dynamics (DPD) simulations, where the properties governing the phase equilibria such as the characteristic size of the chain, compressibility, density, and temperature are preserved. The proposed methodology reduces the number of degrees of freedom required in traditional DPD representations to model equilibrium properties of systems with complex molecules (e.g., linear polymers). Based on geometrical considerations we explicitly account for the correlation between beads in fine-grained DPD models and consistently represent the effect of these correlations in a reduced model, in a practical and simple fashion via power laws and the consistent scaling of the simulation parameters. In order to satisfy the geometrical constraints in the reduced model we introduce bond-angle potentials that account for the changes in the chain free energy after the model reduction. Following this coarse-graining process we represent high molecular weight DPD chains (i.e., ≥200≥200 beads per chain) with a significant reduction in the number of particles required (i.e., ≥20≥20 times the original system). We show that our methodology has potential applications modeling systems of high molecular weight molecules at large scales, such as diblock copolymer and DNA.

  7. Evaluation of severe accident risks and the potential for risk reduction: Peach Bottom, Unit 2. Main report. Draft for comment, February 1987

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Amos, C N [Technadyne Engineering Consultants, Inc., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Benjamin, A S; Griesmeyer, J M; Haskin, F E; Kunsman, D M [Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM (United States); Boyd, G J; Lewis, S R [Safety and Reliability Optimization Services, Inc., Knoxville, TN (United States); Helton, J C [Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ (United States); Smith, L N [Science Applications International Corporation, Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    1987-04-01

    The Severe Accident Risk Reduction Program (SARRP) has completed a rebaselining of the risks to the public from a boiling water reactor with a Mark I containment (Peach Bottom, Unit 2). Emphasis was placed on determining the magnitude and character of the uncertainties, rather than focusing on a point estimate. The risk-reduction potential of a set of proposed safety option backfits was also studied, and their costs and benefits were also evaluated. It was found that the risks from internal events are generally low relative to previous studies; for example, most of the uncertainty range is lower than the point estimate of risk for the Peach Bottom plant in the Reactor Safety Study (RSS). However, certain unresolved issues cause the top of the uncertainty band to appear at a level that is comparable with the RSS point estimate. These issues include the modeling of the common-mode failures for the dc power system, the likelihood of offsite power recovery versus time during a station blackout, the probability of drywell failure resulting from meltthrough of the drywell shell, the magnitude of the fission product releases during core-concrete interactions, and the decontamination effectiveness of the reactor enclosure building. Most of the postulated safety options do not appear to be cost effective, although some based on changes to procedures or inexpensive hardware additions may be marginally cost effective. This draft for comment of the SARRP report for Peach Bottom does not include detailed technical appendices, which are still in preparation. The appendices will be issued under separate cover when completed. This work supports the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's assessment of severe accidents in NUREG-1150. (author)

  8. A model-based risk management framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gran, Bjoern Axel; Fredriksen, Rune

    2002-08-15

    The ongoing research activity addresses these issues through two co-operative activities. The first is the IST funded research project CORAS, where Institutt for energiteknikk takes part as responsible for the work package for Risk Analysis. The main objective of the CORAS project is to develop a framework to support risk assessment of security critical systems. The second, called the Halden Open Dependability Demonstrator (HODD), is established in cooperation between Oestfold University College, local companies and HRP. The objective of HODD is to provide an open-source test bed for testing, teaching and learning about risk analysis methods, risk analysis tools, and fault tolerance techniques. The Inverted Pendulum Control System (IPCON), which main task is to keep a pendulum balanced and controlled, is the first system that has been established. In order to make risk assessment one need to know what a system does, or is intended to do. Furthermore, the risk assessment requires correct descriptions of the system, its context and all relevant features. A basic assumption is that a precise model of this knowledge, based on formal or semi-formal descriptions, such as UML, will facilitate a systematic risk assessment. It is also necessary to have a framework to integrate the different risk assessment methods. The experiences so far support this hypothesis. This report presents CORAS and the CORAS model-based risk management framework, including a preliminary guideline for model-based risk assessment. The CORAS framework for model-based risk analysis offers a structured and systematic approach to identify and assess security issues of ICT systems. From the initial assessment of IPCON, we also believe that the framework is applicable in a safety context. Further work on IPCON, as well as the experiences from the CORAS trials, will provide insight and feedback for further improvements. (Author)

  9. Towards Improved Linkage of Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation in Health: A Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banwell, Nicola; Rutherford, Shannon; Mackey, Brendan; Chu, Cordia

    2018-01-01

    Climate change and climate-sensitive disasters significantly impact health. Linking Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) and Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) is essential for addressing these ever present, complex and increasing risks. Recent calls have been made to build these links in health. However, there is a need to clearly articulate why linking DRR and CCA is important in health. Furthermore, little is known about how DRR and CCA should be linked in health. By extensively examining relevant literature, this review presents the current state of knowledge of linking DRR and CCA in health. This includes the potential for maximising conceptual synergies such as building resilience, and reducing vulnerability and risk. Additionally, technical and operational synergies are identified to link DRR and CCA in health, including: policy, Early Warning Systems, vulnerability and risk assessment, health systems strengthening, infrastructure resilience, disaster preparedness and response, and health impact pathways. Public health actors have a central role in building these links due to their expertise, work functions, and experience in addressing complex health risks. The review concludes with recommendations for future research, including how to better link DRR and CCA in health; and the opportunities, challenges and enablers to build and sustain these links. PMID:29670057

  10. Pre-Launch GOES-R Risk Reduction Activities for the Geostationary Lightning Mapper

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodman, S. J.; Blakeslee, R. J.; Boccippio, D. J.; Christian, H. J.; Koshak, W. J.; Petersen, W. A.

    2005-01-01

    The GOES-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) is a new instrument planned for GOES-R that will greatly improve storm hazard nowcasting and increase warning lead time day and night. Daytime detection of lightning is a particularly significant technological advance given the fact that the solar illuminated cloud-top signal can exceed the intensity of the lightning signal by a factor of one hundred. Our approach is detailed across three broad themes which include: Data Processing Algorithm Readiness, Forecast Applications, and Radiance Data Mining. These themes address how the data will be processed and distributed, and the algorithms and models for developing, producing, and using the data products. These pre-launch risk reduction activities will accelerate the operational and research use of the GLM data once GOES-R begins on-orbit operations. The GLM will provide unprecedented capabilities for tracking thunderstorms and earlier warning of impending severe and hazardous weather threats. By providing direct information on lightning initiation, propagation, extent, and rate, the GLM will also capture the updraft dynamics and life cycle of convective storms, as well as internal ice precipitation processes. The GLM provides information directly from the heart of the thunderstorm as opposed to cloud-top only. Nowcasting applications enabled by the GLM data will expedite the warning and response time of emergency management systems, improve the dispatch of electric power utility repair crews, and improve airline routing around thunderstorms thereby improving safety and efficiency, saving fuel and reducing delays. The use of GLM data will assist the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) and the Forest Service in quickly detecting lightning ground strikes that have a high probability of causing fires. Finally, GLM data will help assess the role of thunderstorms and deep convection in global climate, and will improve regional air quality and global chemistry/climate modeling

  11. SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario--Executive Summary and Introduction: Chapter A in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, Stephanie L.; Jones, Lucile M.; Miller, Kevin H.; Porter, Keith A.; Wein, Anne; Wilson, Rick I.; Bahng, Bohyun; Barberopoulou, Aggeliki; Borrero, Jose C.; Brosnan, Deborah M.; Bwarie, John T.; Geist, Eric L.; Johnson, Laurie A.; Kirby, Stephen H.; Knight, William R.; Long, Kate; Lynett, Patrick; Mortensen, Carl E.; Nicolsky, Dmitry J.; Perry, Suzanne C.; Plumlee, Geoffrey S.; Real, Charles R.; Ryan, Kenneth; Suleimani, Elena; Thio, Hong Kie; Titov, Vasily V.; Whitmore, Paul M.; Wood, Nathan J.

    2013-01-01

    The Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) tsunami scenario depicts a hypothetical but plausible tsunami created by an earthquake offshore from the Alaska Peninsula and its impacts on the California coast. The tsunami scenario is a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the California Geological Survey, the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services (Cal OES), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), other Federal, State, County, and local agencies, private companies, and academic and other institutions. This document presents evidence for past tsunamis, the scientific basis for the source, likely inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental and ecological impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management and evacuation challenges, and policy implications for California associated with this hypothetical tsunami. We also discuss ongoing mitigation efforts by the State of California and new communication products. The intended users are those who need to make mitigation decisions before future tsunamis, and those who will need to make rapid decisions during tsunami events. The results of the tsunami scenario will help managers understand the context and consequences of their decisions and how they may improve preparedness and response. An evaluation component will assess the effectiveness of the scenario process for target stakeholders in a separate report to improve similar efforts in the future.

  12. Contribution to modeling and dynamic risk hedging in energy markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noufel, Frikha

    2010-12-01

    This thesis is concerned with probabilistic numerical problems about modeling, risk control and risk hedging motivated by applications to energy markets. The main tool is based on stochastic approximation and simulation methods. This thesis consists of three parts. The first one is devoted to the computation of two risk measures of the portfolio loss distribution L: the Value-at-Risk (VaR) and the Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR). This computation uses a stochastic algorithm combined with an adaptive variance reduction technique. The first part of this chapter deals with the finite dimensional case, the second part extends the results of the first part to the case of a path-dependency process and the last one deals low discrepancy sequences. The second chapter is devoted with risk minimizing hedging strategies in an incomplete market operating in discrete time using quantization based stochastic approximation. Theoretical results on CVaR hedging are presented then numerical aspects are addressed in a Markovian framework. The last part deals with joint modeling of Gas and Electricity spot prices. The multi-factor model presented is based on stationary Ornstein process with parameterized diffusion coefficient. (author)

  13. Predictors of the nicotine reinforcement threshold, compensation, and elasticity of demand in a rodent model of nicotine reduction policy*

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grebenstein, Patricia E.; Burroughs, Danielle; Roiko, Samuel A.; Pentel, Paul R.; LeSage, Mark G.

    2015-01-01

    Background The FDA is considering reducing the nicotine content in tobacco products as a population-based strategy to reduce tobacco addiction. Research is needed to determine the threshold level of nicotine needed to maintain smoking and the extent of compensatory smoking that could occur during nicotine reduction. Sources of variability in these measures across sub-populations also need to be identified so that policies can take into account the risks and benefits of nicotine reduction in vulnerable populations. Methods The present study examined these issues in a rodent nicotine self- administration model of nicotine reduction policy to characterize individual differences in nicotine reinforcement thresholds, degree of compensation, and elasticity of demand during progressive reduction of the unit nicotine dose. The ability of individual differences in baseline nicotine intake and nicotine pharmacokinetics to predict responses to dose reduction was also examined. Results Considerable variability in the reinforcement threshold, compensation, and elasticity of demand was evident. High baseline nicotine intake was not correlated with the reinforcement threshold, but predicted less compensation and less elastic demand. Higher nicotine clearance predicted low reinforcement thresholds, greater compensation, and less elastic demand. Less elastic demand also predicted lower reinforcement thresholds. Conclusions These findings suggest that baseline nicotine intake, nicotine clearance, and the essential value of nicotine (i.e. elasticity of demand) moderate the effects of progressive nicotine reduction in rats and warrant further study in humans. They also suggest that smokers with fast nicotine metabolism may be more vulnerable to the risks of nicotine reduction. PMID:25891231

  14. Association between firearm ownership, firearm-related risk and risk reduction behaviours and alcohol-related risk behaviours.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wintemute, Garen J

    2011-12-01

    Alcohol use and firearm ownership are risk factors for violent injury and death. To determine whether firearm ownership and specific firearm-related behaviours are associated with alcohol-related risk behaviours, the author conducted a cross-sectional study using Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System data for eight states in the USA from 1996 to 1997 (the most recent data available). Altogether, 15 474 respondents provided information on firearm exposure. After adjustment for demographics and state of residence, firearm owners were more likely than those with no firearms at home to have ≥5 drinks on one occasion (OR 1.32; 95% CI 1.16 to 1.50), to drink and drive (OR 1.79; 95% CI 1.34 to 2.39) and to have ≥60 drinks per month (OR 1.45; 95% CI 1.14 to 1.83). Heavy alcohol use was most common among firearm owners who also engaged in behaviours such as carrying a firearm for protection against other people and keeping a firearm at home that was both loaded and not locked away. The author concludes that firearm ownership and specific firearm-related behaviours are associated with alcohol-related risk behaviours.

  15. Risk reduction in a changing insurance climate: examples from the US and UK

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horn, Diane; McShane, Michael

    2015-04-01

    Coastal cities face a range of increasingly severe challenges as sea level rises, and adaptation to future flood risk will require more than structural defences. Many cities will not be able to rely solely on engineering structures for protection and will need to develop a suite of policy responses to increase their resilience to impacts of rising sea level. Insurance can be used as a risk-sharing mechanism to encourage adaptation to sea level rise, using pricing or restrictions on availability of cover to discourage new development in flood risk areas or to encourage the uptake of flood resilience measures. We draw on flood insurance policy lessons learned from the United States and the United Kingdom to propose risk-sharing among private insurers/reinsurers, government, and policyholders to alleviate major issues of the current programs, while still maintaining a holistic approach to managing flood risk. The UK and the US are almost polar opposites in the way flood insurance is implemented. Flood insurance in the US is fully public and in the UK fully private; however, in both countries the participants feel that the established system is unsustainable. In the US, flood coverage is excluded from property policies provided by private insurers, and is only available through the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), with the federal government acting as insurer of last resort. Flood risk reduction has been part of the NFIP remit since the introduction of the program in 1968. Following massive payments for flood claims related primarily to Hurricanes Katrina and Sandy, the NFIP is approximately 26 billion in debt, prompting calls to bring private insurance back into the flood insurance business. Two major Congressional modifications to the NFIP in 2012 and 2014 have pushed the contradictory goals of fully risk-based, yet affordable premiums. The private market has not been significantly involved in a risk-bearing role, but that is changing as private insurers

  16. Community food environment measures in the Alabama Black Belt: Implications for cancer risk reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gyawu, Rebecca; Quansah, Joseph E.; Fall, Souleymane; Gichuhi, Peter N.; Bovell-Benjamin, Adelia C.

    2015-01-01

    In-store measures were utilized to evaluate the availability of healthy food choices and nutrition/health promotion messages for cancer risk reduction in the selected Alabama Black Belt counties/cities. Sixty one retail food outlets (RFOs) were audited in 12 Alabama Black Belt cities. Store types included convenience stores (49.2%), restaurants (19.7%), fast food restaurants (16.4%), small supermarkets (8.2%), and large supermarket and farmers' markets (3.3 %), respectively. Although there were low numbers of farmers' markets/street stands and large supermarkets, these had significantly (p food environment had limited opportunities for healthy food choices. PMID:26844138

  17. Short and long term efficiencies of debris risk reduction measures: Application to a European LEO mission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lang, T.; Kervarc, R.; Bertrand, S.; Carle, P.; Donath, T.; Destefanis, R.; Grassi, L.; Tiboldo, F.; Schäfer, F.; Kempf, S.; Gelhaus, J.

    2015-01-01

    Recent numerical studies indicate that the low Earth orbit (LEO) debris environment has reached a point such that even if no further space launches were conducted, the Earth satellite population would remain relatively constant for only the next 50 years or so. Beyond that, the debris population would begin to increase noticeably, due to the production of collisional debris (Liou and Johnson, 2008). Measures to be enforced play thus a major role to preserve an acceptable space mission risk and ensure sustainable space activities. The identification of such measures and the quantification of their efficiency over time for LEO missions is of prime concern in the decision-making process, as it has been investigated for the last few decades by the Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC). This paper addresses the final results of a generic methodology and the characteristics of a tool developed to assess the efficiency of the risk reduction measures identified for the Sentinel-1 (S1) mission. This work is performed as part of the 34-month P2-ROTECT project (Prediction, Protection & Reduction of OrbiTal Exposure to Collision Threats), funded by the European Union within the Seventh Framework Programme. Three ways of risk reduction have been investigated, both in short and long-term, namely: better satellite protection, better conjunction prediction, and cleaner environment. According to our assumptions, the S1 mission vulnerability evaluations in the long term (from 2093 to 2100) show that full compliance to the mitigation measures leads to a situation twice safer than that induced by an active debris removal of 5 objects per year in a MASTER2009 Business-As-Usual context. Because these measures have visible risk reduction effects in the long term, complementary measures with short response time are also studied. In the short term (from 2013 to 2020), a better prediction of the conjunctions is more efficient than protecting the satellite S1 itself. By

  18. The sexual double standard in African American adolescent women's sexual risk reduction socialization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fasula, Amy M; Miller, Kim S; Wiener, Jeffrey

    2007-01-01

    This study explored the sexual double standard (SDS) (in which males are afforded more freedom and power than females in heterosexual interactions) in African American mothers' sexual messages to sons and daughters. We used a convenience sample of 129 African American adolescents, aged 14 to 17 years, and their mothers who reported SDS attitudes. Qualitative analyses revealed gender differences based on an SDS in mothers' sexual risk reduction socialization. Mothers typically took a proactive approach with sons and a neutral or prohibitive approach with daughters. Findings provide directions for socially relevant programs for African American parents, schools, and communities.

  19. [A model list of high risk drugs].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cotrina Luque, J; Guerrero Aznar, M D; Alvarez del Vayo Benito, C; Jimenez Mesa, E; Guzman Laura, K P; Fernández Fernández, L

    2013-12-01

    «High-risk drugs» are those that have a very high «risk» of causing death or serious injury if an error occurs during its use. The Institute for Safe Medication Practices (ISMP) has prepared a high-risk drugs list applicable to the general population (with no differences between the pediatric and adult population). Thus, there is a lack of information for the pediatric population. The main objective of this work is to develop a high-risk drug list adapted to the neonatal or pediatric population as a reference model for the pediatric hospital health workforce. We made a literature search in May 2012 to identify any published lists or references in relation to pediatric and/or neonatal high-risk drugs. A total of 15 studies were found, from which 9 were selected. A model list was developed mainly based on the ISMP one, adding strongly perceived pediatric risk drugs and removing those where the pediatric use was anecdotal. There is no published list that suits pediatric risk management. The list of pediatric and neonatal high-risk drugs presented here could be a «reference list of high-risk drugs » for pediatric hospitals. Using this list and training will help to prevent medication errors in each drug supply chain (prescribing, transcribing, dispensing and administration). Copyright © 2013 Asociación Española de Pediatría. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

  20. Reductive stress in young healthy individuals at risk of Alzheimer disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badía, Mari-Carmen; Giraldo, Esther; Dasí, Francisco; Alonso, Dolores; Lainez, Jose M; Lloret, Ana; Viña, Jose

    2013-10-01

    Oxidative stress is a hallmark of Alzheimer disease (AD) but this has not been studied in young healthy persons at risk of the disease. Carrying an Apo ε4 allele is the major genetic risk factor for AD. We have observed that lymphocytes from young, healthy persons carrying at least one Apo ε4 allele suffer from reductive rather than oxidative stress, i.e., lower oxidized glutathione and P-p38 levels and higher expression of enzymes involved in antioxidant defense, such as glutamylcysteinyl ligase and glutathione peroxidase. In contrast, in the full-blown disease, the situation is reversed and oxidative stress occurs, probably because of the exhaustion of the antioxidant mechanisms just mentioned. These results provide insights into the early events of the progression of the disease that may allow us to find biomarkers of AD at its very early stages. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.