Salmerón, Diego; Cano, Juan A; Chirlaque, María D
2015-08-30
In cohort studies, binary outcomes are very often analyzed by logistic regression. However, it is well known that when the goal is to estimate a risk ratio, the logistic regression is inappropriate if the outcome is common. In these cases, a log-binomial regression model is preferable. On the other hand, the estimation of the regression coefficients of the log-binomial model is difficult owing to the constraints that must be imposed on these coefficients. Bayesian methods allow a straightforward approach for log-binomial regression models and produce smaller mean squared errors in the estimation of risk ratios than the frequentist methods, and the posterior inferences can be obtained using the software WinBUGS. However, Markov chain Monte Carlo methods implemented in WinBUGS can lead to large Monte Carlo errors in the approximations to the posterior inferences because they produce correlated simulations, and the accuracy of the approximations are inversely related to this correlation. To reduce correlation and to improve accuracy, we propose a reparameterization based on a Poisson model and a sampling algorithm coded in R. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Cole, Stephen R; Lau, Bryan; Eron, Joseph J; Brookhart, M Alan; Kitahata, Mari M; Martin, Jeffrey N; Mathews, William C; Mugavero, Michael J
2015-02-15
There are few published examples of absolute risk estimated from epidemiologic data subject to censoring and competing risks with adjustment for multiple confounders. We present an example estimating the effect of injection drug use on 6-year risk of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) after initiation of combination antiretroviral therapy between 1998 and 2012 in an 8-site US cohort study with death before AIDS as a competing risk. We estimate the risk standardized to the total study sample by combining inverse probability weights with the cumulative incidence function; estimates of precision are obtained by bootstrap. In 7,182 patients (83% male, 33% African American, median age of 38 years), we observed 6-year standardized AIDS risks of 16.75% among 1,143 injection drug users and 12.08% among 6,039 nonusers, yielding a standardized risk difference of 4.68 (95% confidence interval: 1.27, 8.08) and a standardized risk ratio of 1.39 (95% confidence interval: 1.12, 1.72). Results may be sensitive to the assumptions of exposure-version irrelevance, no measurement bias, and no unmeasured confounding. These limitations suggest that results be replicated with refined measurements of injection drug use. Nevertheless, estimating the standardized risk difference and ratio is straightforward, and injection drug use appears to increase the risk of AIDS. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.
Owusu-Ansah, Emmanuel de-Graft Johnson; Sampson, Angelina; Amponsah, Samuel K; Abaidoo, Robert C; Dalsgaard, Anders; Hald, Tine
2017-12-01
The need to replace the commonly applied fecal indicator conversions ratio (an assumption of 1:10 -5 virus to fecal indicator organism) in Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) with models based on quantitative data on the virus of interest has gained prominence due to the different physical and environmental factors that might influence the reliability of using indicator organisms in microbial risk assessment. The challenges facing analytical studies on virus enumeration (genome copies or particles) have contributed to the already existing lack of data in QMRA modelling. This study attempts to fit a QMRA model to genome copies of norovirus data. The model estimates the risk of norovirus infection from the intake of vegetables irrigated with wastewater from different sources. The results were compared to the results of a corresponding model using the fecal indicator conversion ratio to estimate the norovirus count. In all scenarios of using different water sources, the application of the fecal indicator conversion ratio underestimated the norovirus disease burden, measured by the Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs), when compared to results using the genome copies norovirus data. In some cases the difference was >2 orders of magnitude. All scenarios using genome copies met the 10 -4 DALY per person per year for consumption of vegetables irrigated with wastewater, although these results are considered to be highly conservative risk estimates. The fecal indicator conversion ratio model of stream-water and drain-water sources of wastewater achieved the 10 -6 DALY per person per year threshold, which tends to indicate an underestimation of health risk when compared to using genome copies for estimating the dose. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Owusu-Ansah, Emmanuel de-Graft Johnson; Sampson, Angelina; Amponsah, Samuel K.
2017-01-01
physical and environmental factors that might influence the reliability of using indicator organisms in microbial risk assessment. The challenges facing analytical studies on virus enumeration (genome copies or particles) have contributed to the already existing lack of data in QMRA modelling. This study......The need to replace the commonly applied fecal indicator conversions ratio (an assumption of 1:10− 5 virus to fecal indicator organism) in Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) with models based on quantitative data on the virus of interest has gained prominence due to the different...... attempts to fit a QMRA model to genome copies of norovirus data. The model estimates the risk of norovirus infection from the intake of vegetables irrigated with wastewater from different sources. The results were compared to the results of a corresponding model using the fecal indicator conversion ratio...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Brajesh Kumar
2014-08-01
Full Text Available This paper examines hedging effectiveness of four agricultural (soybean, corn, castor seed and guar seed and seven non-agricultural (gold, silver, aluminium, copper, zinc, crude oil and, natural gas futures contracts traded in India, using VECM and CCC-MGARCH model to estimate constant hedge ratio and dynamic hedge ratios, respectively. We ind that agricultural futures contracts provide higher hedging effectiveness (30-70% as compared to non-agricultural futures (20%. In the more recent period, the hedging effectiveness of Indian futures markets has increased. When hedging effectiveness of non-agricultural Indian futures contracts with the world spot markets (NYMEX and LME is analyzed, hedging effectiveness increases dramatically which indicates the fact that Indian futures contracts are more effective for hedging exposures to global prices. Other reasons of lower hedging effectiveness of Indian futures contracts may be low awareness of futures markets among participants, high transaction costs in the futures markets, policy restrictions, inadequate contract design, or high transaction costs in the spot market. These are, of course, expected birth pays for a nascent futures markets in an emerging economy. ";} // -->activate javascript
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Guray Kucukkocaoglu
2016-02-01
Full Text Available In this study, inspired by the Credit Portfolio View approach, we intend to develop an econometric credit risk model to estimate credit loss distributions of Turkish Banking System under baseline and stress macro scenarios, by substituting default rates with non-performing loan (NPL ratios. Since customer number based historical default rates are not available for the whole Turkish banking system’s credit portfolio, we used NPL ratios as dependent variable instead of default rates, a common practice for many countries where historical default rates are not available. Although, there are many problems in using NPL ratios as default rates such as underestimating portfolio losses as a result of totally non-homogeneous total credit portfolios and transferring non-performing loans to asset management companies from banks’ balance sheets, our aim is to underline and limit some ignored problems using accounting based NPL ratios as default rates in macroeconomic credit risk modeling. Developed models confirm the strong statistical relationship between systematic component of credit risk and macroeconomic variables in Turkey. Stress test results also are compatible with the past experiences
Comparing computing formulas for estimating concentration ratios
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gilbert, R.O.; Simpson, J.C.
1984-03-01
This paper provides guidance on the choice of computing formulas (estimators) for estimating concentration ratios and other ratio-type measures of radionuclides and other environmental contaminant transfers between ecosystem components. Mathematical expressions for the expected value of three commonly used estimators (arithmetic mean of ratios, geometric mean of ratios, and the ratio of means) are obtained when the multivariate lognormal distribution is assumed. These expressions are used to explain why these estimators will not in general give the same estimate of the average concentration ratio. They illustrate that the magnitude of the discrepancies depends on the magnitude of measurement biases, and on the variances and correlations associated with spatial heterogeneity and measurement errors. This paper also reports on a computer simulation study that compares the accuracy of eight computing formulas for estimating a ratio relationship that is constant over time and/or space. Statistical models appropriate for both controlled spiking experiments and observational field studies for either normal or lognormal distributions are considered. 24 references, 15 figures, 7 tables
Adaptive Nonparametric Variance Estimation for a Ratio Estimator ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Kernel estimators for smooth curves require modifications when estimating near end points of the support, both for practical and asymptotic reasons. The construction of such boundary kernels as solutions of variational problem is a difficult exercise. For estimating the error variance of a ratio estimator, we suggest an ...
Alhdiri, Maryam Ahmed; Samat, Nor Azah; Mohamed, Zulkifley
2017-03-01
Cancer is the most rapidly spreading disease in the world, especially in developing countries, including Libya. Cancer represents a significant burden on patients, families, and their societies. This disease can be controlled if detected early. Therefore, disease mapping has recently become an important method in the fields of public health research and disease epidemiology. The correct choice of statistical model is a very important step to producing a good map of a disease. Libya was selected to perform this work and to examine its geographical variation in the incidence of lung cancer. The objective of this paper is to estimate the relative risk for lung cancer. Four statistical models to estimate the relative risk for lung cancer and population censuses of the study area for the time period 2006 to 2011 were used in this work. They are initially known as Standardized Morbidity Ratio, which is the most popular statistic, which used in the field of disease mapping, Poisson-gamma model, which is one of the earliest applications of Bayesian methodology, Besag, York and Mollie (BYM) model and Mixture model. As an initial step, this study begins by providing a review of all proposed models, which we then apply to lung cancer data in Libya. Maps, tables and graph, goodness-of-fit (GOF) were used to compare and present the preliminary results. This GOF is common in statistical modelling to compare fitted models. The main general results presented in this study show that the Poisson-gamma model, BYM model, and Mixture model can overcome the problem of the first model (SMR) when there is no observed lung cancer case in certain districts. Results show that the Mixture model is most robust and provides better relative risk estimates across a range of models. Creative Commons Attribution License
Decay ratio estimation in pressurized water reactor
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Por, G.; Runkel, J.
1990-11-01
The well known decay ratio (DR) from stability analysis of boiling water reactors (BWR) is estimated from the impulse response function which was evaluated using a simplified univariate autoregression method. This simplified DR called modified DR (mDR) was applied on neutron noise measurements carried out during five fuel cycles of a 1300 MWe PWR. Results show that this fast evaluation method can be used for monitoring of the growing oscillation of the neutron flux during the fuel cycles which is a major concern of utilities in PWRs, thus it can be used for estimating safety margins. (author) 17 refs.; 10 figs
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Schull, W.J.; Texas Univ., Houston, TX
1992-01-01
Estimation of the risk of cancer following exposure to ionizing radiation remains largely empirical, and models used to adduce risk incorporate few, if any, of the advances in molecular biology of a past decade or so. These facts compromise the estimation risk where the epidemiological data are weakest, namely, at low doses and dose rates. Without a better understanding of the molecular and cellular events ionizing radiation initiates or promotes, it seems unlikely that this situation will improve. Nor will the situation improve without further attention to the identification and quantitative estimation of the effects of those host and environmental factors that enhance or attenuate risk. (author)
Quantifying IT estimation risks
Kulk, G.P.; Peters, R.J.; Verhoef, C.
2009-01-01
A statistical method is proposed for quantifying the impact of factors that influence the quality of the estimation of costs for IT-enabled business projects. We call these factors risk drivers as they influence the risk of the misestimation of project costs. The method can effortlessly be
Risk estimation and evaluation
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Ferguson, R A.D.
1982-10-01
Risk assessment involves subjectivity, which makes objective decision making difficult in the nuclear power debate. The author reviews the process and uncertainties of estimating risks as well as the potential for misinterpretation and misuse. Risk data from a variety of aspects cannot be summed because the significance of different risks is not comparable. A method for including political, social, moral, psychological, and economic factors, environmental impacts, catastrophes, and benefits in the evaluation process could involve a broad base of lay and technical consultants, who would explain and argue their evaluation positions. 15 references. (DCK)
The Improved Estimation of Ratio of Two Population Proportions
Solanki, Ramkrishna S.; Singh, Housila P.
2016-01-01
In this article, first we obtained the correct mean square error expression of Gupta and Shabbir's linear weighted estimator of the ratio of two population proportions. Later we suggested the general class of ratio estimators of two population proportions. The usual ratio estimator, Wynn-type estimator, Singh, Singh, and Kaur difference-type…
Risk estimation using probability machines
2014-01-01
Background Logistic regression has been the de facto, and often the only, model used in the description and analysis of relationships between a binary outcome and observed features. It is widely used to obtain the conditional probabilities of the outcome given predictors, as well as predictor effect size estimates using conditional odds ratios. Results We show how statistical learning machines for binary outcomes, provably consistent for the nonparametric regression problem, can be used to provide both consistent conditional probability estimation and conditional effect size estimates. Effect size estimates from learning machines leverage our understanding of counterfactual arguments central to the interpretation of such estimates. We show that, if the data generating model is logistic, we can recover accurate probability predictions and effect size estimates with nearly the same efficiency as a correct logistic model, both for main effects and interactions. We also propose a method using learning machines to scan for possible interaction effects quickly and efficiently. Simulations using random forest probability machines are presented. Conclusions The models we propose make no assumptions about the data structure, and capture the patterns in the data by just specifying the predictors involved and not any particular model structure. So they do not run the same risks of model mis-specification and the resultant estimation biases as a logistic model. This methodology, which we call a “risk machine”, will share properties from the statistical machine that it is derived from. PMID:24581306
Aswath Damodaran
1999-01-01
Over the last three decades, the capital asset pricing model has occupied a central and often controversial place in most corporate finance analysts’ tool chests. The model requires three inputs to compute expected returns – a riskfree rate, a beta for an asset and an expected risk premium for the market portfolio (over and above the riskfree rate). Betas are estimated, by most practitioners, by regressing returns on an asset against a stock index, with the slope of the regression being the b...
Standardized binomial models for risk or prevalence ratios and differences.
Richardson, David B; Kinlaw, Alan C; MacLehose, Richard F; Cole, Stephen R
2015-10-01
Epidemiologists often analyse binary outcomes in cohort and cross-sectional studies using multivariable logistic regression models, yielding estimates of adjusted odds ratios. It is widely known that the odds ratio closely approximates the risk or prevalence ratio when the outcome is rare, and it does not do so when the outcome is common. Consequently, investigators may decide to directly estimate the risk or prevalence ratio using a log binomial regression model. We describe the use of a marginal structural binomial regression model to estimate standardized risk or prevalence ratios and differences. We illustrate the proposed approach using data from a cohort study of coronary heart disease status in Evans County, Georgia, USA. The approach reduces problems with model convergence typical of log binomial regression by shifting all explanatory variables except the exposures of primary interest from the linear predictor of the outcome regression model to a model for the standardization weights. The approach also facilitates evaluation of departures from additivity in the joint effects of two exposures. Epidemiologists should consider reporting standardized risk or prevalence ratios and differences in cohort and cross-sectional studies. These are readily-obtained using the SAS, Stata and R statistical software packages. The proposed approach estimates the exposure effect in the total population. © The Author 2015; all rights reserved. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.
On efficiency of some ratio estimators in double sampling design ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
In this paper, three sampling ratio estimators in double sampling design were proposed with the intention of finding an alternative double sampling design estimator to the conventional ratio estimator in double sampling design discussed by Cochran (1997), Okafor (2002) , Raj (1972) and Raj and Chandhok (1999).
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Schlenker, R.A.
1982-01-01
Bone sarcoma data for 226 228 Ra and 224 Ra are analyzed within the dosage ranges where the observed risk is zero. The uncertainty in the risk may be effectively illustrated by using pairs of functions based on a statistically-based measure of confidence. For radiation protection, the appropriate measure of risk is cumulative incidence in the presence of competing risks, as this takes into account the reduction of radiation effects brought about by natural mortality
[Using log-binomial model for estimating the prevalence ratio].
Ye, Rong; Gao, Yan-hui; Yang, Yi; Chen, Yue
2010-05-01
To estimate the prevalence ratios, using a log-binomial model with or without continuous covariates. Prevalence ratios for individuals' attitude towards smoking-ban legislation associated with smoking status, estimated by using a log-binomial model were compared with odds ratios estimated by logistic regression model. In the log-binomial modeling, maximum likelihood method was used when there were no continuous covariates and COPY approach was used if the model did not converge, for example due to the existence of continuous covariates. We examined the association between individuals' attitude towards smoking-ban legislation and smoking status in men and women. Prevalence ratio and odds ratio estimation provided similar results for the association in women since smoking was not common. In men however, the odds ratio estimates were markedly larger than the prevalence ratios due to a higher prevalence of outcome. The log-binomial model did not converge when age was included as a continuous covariate and COPY method was used to deal with the situation. All analysis was performed by SAS. Prevalence ratio seemed to better measure the association than odds ratio when prevalence is high. SAS programs were provided to calculate the prevalence ratios with or without continuous covariates in the log-binomial regression analysis.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Roberts, P.B.
1981-11-01
This report outlines the major publications between 1976 and 1981 that have contributed to the evolution of the way in which radiation risks (cancer and hereditary birth defects) are assessed. The publications include the latest findings of the UNSCEAR, BEIR and ICRP committees, epidemiological studies at low doses and new assessments of the doses received by the Japanese A-bomb survivors. This report is not a detailed critique of those publications, but it highlights the impact of their findings on risk assessment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bartell, S.M.; Gardner, R.H.; O'Neill, R.V.
1992-01-01
Ecological risk assessment, the process that evaluates the likelihood that adverse ecological effects may occur or are occurring as a result of exposure to one or more stressors, is being developed by the US EPA as a tool for decision making. This book presents one approach to risk assessment-that of applying laboratory toxicity data within an ecosystem model to predict the potential ecological consequences of toxic chemicals. Both Standard Water Column Model (SWACOM), using zooplankton and fish, and Monte Carlo simulations are discussed in detail, along with quantitative explanations for many responses. Simplifying assumptions are explicitly presented. The final chapter discusses strengths, weaknesses, and future directions of the approach. The book is appropriate for anyone who does or uses ecological risk assessment methodologies
Combining Ratio Estimation for Low Density Parity Check (LDPC) Coding
Mahmoud, Saad; Hi, Jianjun
2012-01-01
The Low Density Parity Check (LDPC) Code decoding algorithm make use of a scaled receive signal derived from maximizing the log-likelihood ratio of the received signal. The scaling factor (often called the combining ratio) in an AWGN channel is a ratio between signal amplitude and noise variance. Accurately estimating this ratio has shown as much as 0.6 dB decoding performance gain. This presentation briefly describes three methods for estimating the combining ratio: a Pilot-Guided estimation method, a Blind estimation method, and a Simulation-Based Look-Up table. The Pilot Guided Estimation method has shown that the maximum likelihood estimates of signal amplitude is the mean inner product of the received sequence and the known sequence, the attached synchronization marker (ASM) , and signal variance is the difference of the mean of the squared received sequence and the square of the signal amplitude. This method has the advantage of simplicity at the expense of latency since several frames worth of ASMs. The Blind estimation method s maximum likelihood estimator is the average of the product of the received signal with the hyperbolic tangent of the product combining ratio and the received signal. The root of this equation can be determined by an iterative binary search between 0 and 1 after normalizing the received sequence. This method has the benefit of requiring one frame of data to estimate the combining ratio which is good for faster changing channels compared to the previous method, however it is computationally expensive. The final method uses a look-up table based on prior simulated results to determine signal amplitude and noise variance. In this method the received mean signal strength is controlled to a constant soft decision value. The magnitude of the deviation is averaged over a predetermined number of samples. This value is referenced in a look up table to determine the combining ratio that prior simulation associated with the average magnitude of
Calibrating recruitment estimates for mourning doves from harvest age ratios
Miller, David A.; Otis, David L.
2010-01-01
We examined results from the first national-scale effort to estimate mourning dove (Zenaida macroura) age ratios and developed a simple, efficient, and generalizable methodology for calibrating estimates. Our method predicted age classes of unknown-age wings based on backward projection of molt distributions from fall harvest collections to preseason banding. We estimated 1) the proportion of late-molt individuals in each age class, and 2) the molt rates of juvenile and adult birds. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrated our estimator was minimally biased. We estimated model parameters using 96,811 wings collected from hunters and 42,189 birds banded during preseason from 68 collection blocks in 22 states during the 2005–2007 hunting seasons. We also used estimates to derive a correction factor, based on latitude and longitude of samples, which can be applied to future surveys. We estimated differential vulnerability of age classes to harvest using data from banded birds and applied that to harvest age ratios to estimate population age ratios. Average, uncorrected age ratio of known-age wings for states that allow hunting was 2.25 (SD 0.85) juveniles:adult, and average, corrected ratio was 1.91 (SD 0.68), as determined from harvest age ratios from an independent sample of 41,084 wings collected from random hunters in 2007 and 2008. We used an independent estimate of differential vulnerability to adjust corrected harvest age ratios and estimated the average population age ratio as 1.45 (SD 0.52), a direct measure of recruitment rates. Average annual recruitment rates were highest east of the Mississippi River and in the northwestern United States, with lower rates between. Our results demonstrate a robust methodology for calibrating recruitment estimates for mourning doves and represent the first large-scale estimates of recruitment for the species. Our methods can be used by managers to correct future harvest survey data to generate recruitment estimates for use in
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Pochin, E.E.
1980-01-01
In an increasing number of situations, it is becoming possible to obtain and compare numerical estimates of the biological risks involved in different alternative sources of action. In some cases these risks are similar in kind, as for example when the risk of including fatal cancer of the breast or stomach by x-ray screening of a population at risk, is compared with the risk of such cancers proving fatal if not detected by a screening programme. In other cases in which it is important to attempt a comparison, the risks are dissimilar in type, as when the safety of occupations involving exposure to radiation or chemical carcinogens is compared with that of occupations in which the major risks are from lung disease or from accidental injury and death. Similar problems of assessing the relative severity of unlike effects occur in any attempt to compare the total biological harm associated with a given output of electricity derived from different primary fuel sources, with its contributions both of occupation and of public harm. In none of these instances is the numerical frequency of harmful effects alone an adequate measure of total biological detriment, nor is such detriment the only factor which should influence decisions. Estimations of risk appear important however, since otherwise public health decisions are likely to be made on more arbitrary grounds, and public opinion will continue to be affected predominantly by the type rather than also by the size of risk. (author)
Radiation in space: risk estimates
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fry, R.J.M.
2002-01-01
The complexity of radiation environments in space makes estimation of risks more difficult than for the protection of terrestrial population. In deep space the duration of the mission, position of the solar cycle, number and size of solar particle events (SPE) and the spacecraft shielding are the major determinants of risk. In low-earth orbit missions there are the added factors of altitude and orbital inclination. Different radiation qualities such as protons and heavy ions and secondary radiations inside the spacecraft such as neutrons of various energies, have to be considered. Radiation dose rates in space are low except for short periods during very large SPEs. Risk estimation for space activities is based on the human experience of exposure to gamma rays and to a lesser extent X rays. The doses of protons, heavy ions and neutrons are adjusted to take into account the relative biological effectiveness (RBE) of the different radiation types and thus derive equivalent doses. RBE values and factors to adjust for the effect of dose rate have to be obtained from experimental data. The influence of age and gender on the cancer risk is estimated from the data from atomic bomb survivors. Because of the large number of variables the uncertainties in the probability of the effects are large. Information needed to improve the risk estimates includes: (1) risk of cancer induction by protons, heavy ions and neutrons; (2) influence of dose rate and protraction, particularly on potential tissue effects such as reduced fertility and cataracts; and (3) possible effects of heavy ions on the central nervous system. Risk cannot be eliminated and thus there must be a consensus on what level of risk is acceptable. (author)
Comments on mutagenesis risk estimation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Russell, W.L.
1976-01-01
Several hypotheses and concepts have tended to oversimplify the problem of mutagenesis and can be misleading when used for genetic risk estimation. These include: the hypothesis that radiation-induced mutation frequency depends primarily on the DNA content per haploid genome, the extension of this concept to chemical mutagenesis, the view that, since DNA is DNA, mutational effects can be expected to be qualitatively similar in all organisms, the REC unit, and the view that mutation rates from chronic irradiation can be theoretically and accurately predicted from acute irradiation data. Therefore, direct determination of frequencies of transmitted mutations in mammals continues to be important for risk estimation, and the specific-locus method in mice is shown to be not as expensive as is commonly supposed for many of the chemical testing requirements
Inverse odds ratio-weighted estimation for causal mediation analysis.
Tchetgen Tchetgen, Eric J
2013-11-20
An important scientific goal of studies in the health and social sciences is increasingly to determine to what extent the total effect of a point exposure is mediated by an intermediate variable on the causal pathway between the exposure and the outcome. A causal framework has recently been proposed for mediation analysis, which gives rise to new definitions, formal identification results and novel estimators of direct and indirect effects. In the present paper, the author describes a new inverse odds ratio-weighted approach to estimate so-called natural direct and indirect effects. The approach, which uses as a weight the inverse of an estimate of the odds ratio function relating the exposure and the mediator, is universal in that it can be used to decompose total effects in a number of regression models commonly used in practice. Specifically, the approach may be used for effect decomposition in generalized linear models with a nonlinear link function, and in a number of other commonly used models such as the Cox proportional hazards regression for a survival outcome. The approach is simple and can be implemented in standard software provided a weight can be specified for each observation. An additional advantage of the method is that it easily incorporates multiple mediators of a categorical, discrete or continuous nature. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Ratio-based estimators for a change point in persistence.
Halunga, Andreea G; Osborn, Denise R
2012-11-01
We study estimation of the date of change in persistence, from [Formula: see text] to [Formula: see text] or vice versa. Contrary to statements in the original papers, our analytical results establish that the ratio-based break point estimators of Kim [Kim, J.Y., 2000. Detection of change in persistence of a linear time series. Journal of Econometrics 95, 97-116], Kim et al. [Kim, J.Y., Belaire-Franch, J., Badillo Amador, R., 2002. Corringendum to "Detection of change in persistence of a linear time series". Journal of Econometrics 109, 389-392] and Busetti and Taylor [Busetti, F., Taylor, A.M.R., 2004. Tests of stationarity against a change in persistence. Journal of Econometrics 123, 33-66] are inconsistent when a mean (or other deterministic component) is estimated for the process. In such cases, the estimators converge to random variables with upper bound given by the true break date when persistence changes from [Formula: see text] to [Formula: see text]. A Monte Carlo study confirms the large sample downward bias and also finds substantial biases in moderate sized samples, partly due to properties at the end points of the search interval.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Anon.
1982-01-01
The way nuclear power plants are built practically excludes accidents with serious consequences. This is attended to by careful selection of material, control of fabrication and regular retesting as well as by several safety systems working independently. But the remaining risk, a 'hypothetic' uncontrollable incident with catastrophic effects is the main subject of the discussion on the peaceful utilization of nuclear power. The this year's 'Annual Meeting on Nuclear Engineering' in Mannheim and the meeting 'Reactor Safety Research' in Cologne showed, that risk studies so far were too pessimistic. 'Best estimate' calculations suggest that core melt-down accidents only occur if almost all safety systems fail, that accidents take place much more slowly, and that the release of radioactive fission products is by several magnitudes lower than it was assumed until now. (orig.) [de
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jambulingam Subramani
2013-10-01
Full Text Available The present paper deals with a modified ratio estimator for estimation of population mean of the study variable when the population median of the auxiliary variable is known. The bias and mean squared error of the proposed estimator are derived and are compared with that of existing modified ratio estimators for certain known populations. Further we have also derived the conditions for which the proposed estimator performs better than the existing modified ratio estimators. From the numerical study it is also observed that the proposed modified ratio estimator performs better than the existing modified ratio estimators for certain known populations.
Psychological methods of subjective risk estimates
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zimolong, B.
1980-01-01
Reactions to situations involving risks can be divided into the following parts/ perception of danger, subjective estimates of the risk and risk taking with respect to action. Several investigations have compared subjective estimates of the risk with an objective measure of that risk. In general there was a mis-match between subjective and objective measures of risk, especially, objective risk involved in routine activities is most commonly underestimated. This implies, for accident prevention, that attempts must be made to induce accurate subjective risk estimates by technical and behavioural measures. (orig.) [de
Estimating the Risks of Breast Cancer Radiotherapy
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Taylor, Carolyn; Correa, Candace; Duane, Frances K
2017-01-01
Purpose Radiotherapy reduces the absolute risk of breast cancer mortality by a few percentage points in suitable women but can cause a second cancer or heart disease decades later. We estimated the absolute long-term risks of modern breast cancer radiotherapy. Methods First, a systematic literature...... review was performed of lung and heart doses in breast cancer regimens published during 2010 to 2015. Second, individual patient data meta-analyses of 40,781 women randomly assigned to breast cancer radiotherapy versus no radiotherapy in 75 trials yielded rate ratios (RRs) for second primary cancers...... and cause-specific mortality and excess RRs (ERRs) per Gy for incident lung cancer and cardiac mortality. Smoking status was unavailable. Third, the lung or heart ERRs per Gy in the trials and the 2010 to 2015 doses were combined and applied to current smoker and nonsmoker lung cancer and cardiac mortality...
Methods for risk estimation in nuclear energy
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Gauvenet, A [CEA, 75 - Paris (France)
1979-01-01
The author presents methods for estimating the different risks related to nuclear energy: immediate or delayed risks, individual or collective risks, risks of accidents and long-term risks. These methods have attained a highly valid level of elaboration and their application to other industrial or human problems is currently under way, especially in English-speaking countries.
Cardiovascular risk prediction: the old has given way to the new but at what risk-benefit ratio?
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yeboah J
2014-10-01
Full Text Available Joseph Yeboah Heart and Vascular Center of Excellence, Wake Forest University School of Medicine, Winston-Salem, NC, USA Abstract: The ultimate goal of cardiovascular risk prediction is to identify individuals in the population to whom the application or administration of current proven lifestyle modifications and medicinal therapies will result in reduction in cardiovascular disease events and minimal adverse effects (net benefit to society. The use of cardiovascular risk prediction tools dates back to 1976 when the Framingham coronary heart disease risk score was published. Since then a lot of novel risk markers have been identified and other cardiovascular risk prediction tools have been developed to either improve or replace the Framingham Risk Score (FRS. In 2013, the new atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk estimator was published by the American College of Cardiology and the American Heart Association to replace the FRS for cardiovascular risk prediction. It is too soon to know the performance of the new atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk estimator. The risk-benefit ratio for preventive therapy (lifestyle modifications, statin +/− aspirin based on cardiovascular disease risk assessed using the FRS is unknown but it was assumed to be a net benefit. Should we also assume the risk-benefit ratio for the new atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk estimator is also a net benefit? Keywords: risk prediction, prevention, cardiovascular disease
X-ray dual energy spectral parameter optimization for bone Calcium/Phosphorus mass ratio estimation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sotiropoulou, P I; Martini, N D; Koukou, V N; Nikiforidis, G C; Fountos, G P; Michail, C M; Valais, I G; Kandarakis, I S
2015-01-01
Calcium (Ca) and Phosphorus (P) bone mass ratio has been identified as an important, yet underutilized, risk factor in osteoporosis diagnosis. The purpose of this simulation study is to investigate the use of effective or mean mass attenuation coefficient in Ca/P mass ratio estimation with the use of a dual-energy method. The investigation was based on the minimization of the accuracy of Ca/P ratio, with respect to the Coefficient of Variation of the ratio. Different set-ups were examined, based on the K-edge filtering technique and single X-ray exposure. The modified X-ray output was attenuated by various Ca/P mass ratios resulting in nine calibration points, while keeping constant the total bone thickness. The simulated data were obtained considering a photon counting energy discriminating detector. The standard deviation of the residuals was used to compare and evaluate the accuracy between the different dual energy set-ups. The optimum mass attenuation coefficient for the Ca/P mass ratio estimation was the effective coefficient in all the examined set-ups. The variation of the residuals between the different set-ups was not significant. (paper)
Heritability estimates for different Kleiber ratios obtained from growth ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
The Kleiber ratio is a measurement for efficiency, independent of body size ... Data included the following performance traits: birth mass, 100-day-, 205-day-, .... classes of stock, were used in the development of this simula- tion program.
The effect of financial ratios on systematic risk index
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ali Faez
2013-11-01
Full Text Available This paper investigates the relationship between financial ratios and indicator of systemic risk in the Tehran Stock Exchange. The study selects 73 manufacturing companies of the Tehran Stock Exchange market over the period 2003-2010. The study first calculates the independent variables in the form of financial ratios and then the ratios affecting the systematic risk index are extracted using entropy method. The output of this stage is the introduction of five influential financial indicators as the independent variables of the study. Using t-test and Pearson correlation coefficient the rate of independent variables effect on the systematic risk index is evaluated and finally, using stepwise regression method, the effect of independent variables on the dependent variable is examined. According to results of our survey, the correlation coefficient of such indices as “the ratio of stock price to the profit of each share”, “Current ratio”, “each share profit ratio” and “the stockholders rights return ratio” have respectively the highest correlation with the systematic risk index.
Iwahori, Toshiyuki; Miura, Katsuyuki; Ueshima, Hirotsugu; Chan, Queenie; Dyer, Alan R; Elliott, Paul; Stamler, Jeremiah
2017-10-01
Association between casual and 24-h urinary sodium-to-potassium (Na/K) ratio is well recognized, although it has not been validated in diverse demographic groups. Our aim was to assess utility across and within populations of casual urine to estimate 24-h urinary Na/K ratio using data from the INTERSALT Study. The INTERSALT Study collected cross-sectional standardized data on casual urinary sodium and potassium and also on timed 24-h urinary sodium and potassium for 10 065 individuals from 52 population samples in 32 countries (1985-87). Pearson correlation coefficients and agreement were computed for Na/K ratio of casual urine against 24-h urinary Na/K ratio both at population and individual levels. Pearson correlation coefficients relating means of 24-h urine and casual urine Na/K ratio were r = 0.96 and r = 0.69 in analyses across populations and individuals, respectively. Correlations of casual urine Na/creatinine and K/creatinine ratios with 24-h urinary Na and K excretion, respectively, were lower than correlation of casual and 24-h urinary Na/K ratio in analyses across populations and individuals. The bias estimate with the Bland-Altman method, defined as the difference between Na/K ratio of 24-h urine and casual urine, was approximately 0.4 across both populations and individuals. Spread around, the mean bias was higher for individuals than populations. With appropriate bias correction, casual urine Na/K ratio may be a useful, low-burden alternative method to 24-h urine for estimation of population urinary Na/K ratio. It may also be applicable for assessment of the urinary Na/K ratio of individuals, with use of repeated measurements to reduce measurement error and increase precision. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association
Estimating the board foot to cubic foot ratio
Steve P. Verrill; Victoria L. Herian; Henry N. Spelter
2004-01-01
Certain issues in recent softwood lumber trade negotiations have centered on the method for converting estimates of timber volumes reported in cubic meters to board feet. Such conversions depend on many factors; three of the most important of these are log length, diameter, and taper. Average log diameters vary by region and have declined in the western United States...
Estimate of the therapeutic ratio for charged particle beams
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Phillips, T.S.; Goldstein, L.S.
1980-01-01
To establish the RBE in normal and tumor tissue of heavy ion beams, the dose response for normal tissues, tumors and hypoxic and euoxic cells in vitro to single fraction irradiation and their ability to recover has been studied. The data demonstrate that the therapeutic ratio (RBE in tumor/RBE in normal tissue) of the murine systems increases with increasing LET up to the LET of the peak of the modulated neon beam. Although the argon beam has some features which make it attractive for therapy, its application may be limited because of its unfavorable biological depth-dose distribution
Risk estimates for exposure to alpha emitters
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
1982-07-01
The primary scope of this report is to evaluate the risk of lung cancer from occupational exposure to short-lived daughters of radon and thoron. The Subcommittee on Risk Estimates considers that inhalation of radon and thoron daughters is the major radiation hazard from alpha radiation in uranium mining. The secondary scope of this report is the consideration of the applicability of the risk estimates derived from miners to the general public. The risk to members of the public from radium-226 in drinking water is also considered. Some research requirments are suggested
Risk Probability Estimating Based on Clustering
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Chen, Yong; Jensen, Christian D.; Gray, Elizabeth
2003-01-01
of prior experiences, recommendations from a trusted entity or the reputation of the other entity. In this paper we propose a dynamic mechanism for estimating the risk probability of a certain interaction in a given environment using hybrid neural networks. We argue that traditional risk assessment models...... from the insurance industry do not directly apply to ubiquitous computing environments. Instead, we propose a dynamic mechanism for risk assessment, which is based on pattern matching, classification and prediction procedures. This mechanism uses an estimator of risk probability, which is based...
[Evaluation of estimation of prevalence ratio using bayesian log-binomial regression model].
Gao, W L; Lin, H; Liu, X N; Ren, X W; Li, J S; Shen, X P; Zhu, S L
2017-03-10
To evaluate the estimation of prevalence ratio ( PR ) by using bayesian log-binomial regression model and its application, we estimated the PR of medical care-seeking prevalence to caregivers' recognition of risk signs of diarrhea in their infants by using bayesian log-binomial regression model in Openbugs software. The results showed that caregivers' recognition of infant' s risk signs of diarrhea was associated significantly with a 13% increase of medical care-seeking. Meanwhile, we compared the differences in PR 's point estimation and its interval estimation of medical care-seeking prevalence to caregivers' recognition of risk signs of diarrhea and convergence of three models (model 1: not adjusting for the covariates; model 2: adjusting for duration of caregivers' education, model 3: adjusting for distance between village and township and child month-age based on model 2) between bayesian log-binomial regression model and conventional log-binomial regression model. The results showed that all three bayesian log-binomial regression models were convergence and the estimated PRs were 1.130(95 %CI : 1.005-1.265), 1.128(95 %CI : 1.001-1.264) and 1.132(95 %CI : 1.004-1.267), respectively. Conventional log-binomial regression model 1 and model 2 were convergence and their PRs were 1.130(95 % CI : 1.055-1.206) and 1.126(95 % CI : 1.051-1.203), respectively, but the model 3 was misconvergence, so COPY method was used to estimate PR , which was 1.125 (95 %CI : 1.051-1.200). In addition, the point estimation and interval estimation of PRs from three bayesian log-binomial regression models differed slightly from those of PRs from conventional log-binomial regression model, but they had a good consistency in estimating PR . Therefore, bayesian log-binomial regression model can effectively estimate PR with less misconvergence and have more advantages in application compared with conventional log-binomial regression model.
Uranium mill tailings and risk estimation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Marks, S.
1984-04-01
Work done in estimating projected health effects for persons exposed to mill tailings at vicinity properties is described. The effect of the reassessment of exposures at Hiroshima and Nagasaki on the risk estimates for gamma radiation is discussed. A presentation of current results in the epidemiological study of Hanford workers is included. 2 references
Estimating the commodity market price of risk for energy prices
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kolos, Sergey P.; Ronn, Ehud I.
2008-01-01
The purpose of this paper is to estimate the ''market price of risk'' (MPR) for energy commodities, the ratio of expected return to standard deviation. The MPR sign determines whether energy forward prices are upward- or downward-biased predictors of expected spot prices. We estimate MPRs using spot and futures prices, while accounting for the Samuelson effect. We find long-term MPRs generally positive and short-term negative, consistent with positive energy betas and hedging, respectively. In spot electricity markets, MPRs in Day-Ahead Prices agree with short-dated futures. Our results relate risk premia to informed hedging decisions, and futures prices to forecast/expected prices. (author)
Estimation of risks from medical irradiation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Persson, B.R.R.
1983-01-01
This paper discuss various concepts of quantifying risks from medical irradiation. The expected individual risk from specific medical examination can be derived by estimation the dose-equivalent in different organs and tissues and apply the risk factors recommended for these tissues. A more practical way is to estimate or measure the energy imparted which has been found to correlate quite well with the total risk derived by summing up the risks for the involved tissues. The effective dose-equivalent concept can be used to derive the collective effective dose-equivalent in a population in order to compare the contribution from medical exposure with the contribution from other sources of irradiation in the society. In many countries it is thus shown that medical exposures gives the largest man-made contribution to the population dose
Toxicity ratios: Their use and abuse in predicting the risk from induced cancer
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mays, C.W.; Taylor, G.N.; Lloyd, R.D.
1986-01-01
The toxicity ratio concept assumes the validity of certain relationships. In some examples for bone sarcoma induction, the approximate toxicity of 239 Pu in man can be calculated algebraically from the observed toxicity in the radium-dial painters and the ratio of 239 Pu/ 226 Ra toxicities in suitable laboratory mammals. In a species highly susceptible to bone sarcoma induction, the risk coefficients for both 239 Pu and 226 Ra are elevated, but the toxicity ratio of 239 Pu to 226 Ra tends to be similar to the ratio in resistant species. Among the tested species the toxicity ratio of 239 Pu to 226 Ra ranged from 6 to 22 (a fourfold range), whereas their relative sensitivities to 239 Pu varied by a factor of 150. The toxicity ratio approach can also be used to estimate the actinide risk to man from liver cancer, by comparing to the Thorotrast patients; from lung cancer, by comparing to the uranium miners and the atomic-bomb survivors; and from neutron-induced cancers, by comparing to cancers induced by gamma rays. The toxicity ratio can be used to predict the risk to man from a specific type of cancer that has been reliably induced by a reference radiation in humans and that can be induced by both the reference and the investigated radiation in suitable laboratory animals. 26 refs., 3 figs., 1 tab
Risk Preferences and Predictions about Others: No Association with 2D:4D Ratio
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Katharina Lima de Miranda
2018-02-01
Full Text Available Prenatal androgen exposure affects the brain development of the fetus which may facilitate certain behaviors and decision patterns in the later life. The ratio between the lengths of second and the fourth fingers (2D:4D is a negative biomarker of the ratio between prenatal androgen and estrogen exposure and men typically have lower ratios than women. In line with the typical findings suggesting that women are more risk averse than men, several studies have also shown negative relationships between 2D:4D and risk taking although the evidence is not conclusive. Previous studies have also reported that both men and women believe women are more risk averse than men. In the current study, we re-test the relationship between 2D:4D and risk preferences in a German student sample and also investigate whether the 2D:4D ratio is associated with people’s perceptions about others’ risk preferences. Following an incentivized risk elicitation task, we asked all participants their predictions about (i others’ responses (without sex specification, (ii men’s responses, and (iii women’s responses; then measured their 2D:4D ratios. In line with the previous findings, female participants in our sample were more risk averse. While both men and women underestimated other participants’ (non sex-specific and women’s risky decisions on average, their predictions about men were accurate. We also found evidence for the false consensus effect, as risky choices are positively correlated with predictions about other participants’ risky choices. The 2D:4D ratio was not directly associated either with risk preferences or the predictions of other participants’ choices. An unexpected finding was that women with mid-range levels of 2D:4D estimated significantly larger sex differences in participants’ decisions. This finding needs further testing in future studies.
Risk Preferences and Predictions about Others: No Association with 2D:4D Ratio
Lima de Miranda, Katharina; Neyse, Levent; Schmidt, Ulrich
2018-01-01
Prenatal androgen exposure affects the brain development of the fetus which may facilitate certain behaviors and decision patterns in the later life. The ratio between the lengths of second and the fourth fingers (2D:4D) is a negative biomarker of the ratio between prenatal androgen and estrogen exposure and men typically have lower ratios than women. In line with the typical findings suggesting that women are more risk averse than men, several studies have also shown negative relationships between 2D:4D and risk taking although the evidence is not conclusive. Previous studies have also reported that both men and women believe women are more risk averse than men. In the current study, we re-test the relationship between 2D:4D and risk preferences in a German student sample and also investigate whether the 2D:4D ratio is associated with people’s perceptions about others’ risk preferences. Following an incentivized risk elicitation task, we asked all participants their predictions about (i) others’ responses (without sex specification), (ii) men’s responses, and (iii) women’s responses; then measured their 2D:4D ratios. In line with the previous findings, female participants in our sample were more risk averse. While both men and women underestimated other participants’ (non sex-specific) and women’s risky decisions on average, their predictions about men were accurate. We also found evidence for the false consensus effect, as risky choices are positively correlated with predictions about other participants’ risky choices. The 2D:4D ratio was not directly associated either with risk preferences or the predictions of other participants’ choices. An unexpected finding was that women with mid-range levels of 2D:4D estimated significantly larger sex differences in participants’ decisions. This finding needs further testing in future studies. PMID:29472846
An alternative approach to estimate the W/C ratio of hardened concrete using image analysis
Valcke, S.; Nijland, T.G.; Larbi, J.A.
2009-01-01
The water cement (w/c) ratio is a typical quality parameter for concrete. The NT Build 361 Nordtest method is a standard for estimating the w/c ratio in hardened concrete and is based on the relationship between the ilc ratio and the capillary porosity in the cement paste. The latter can be
Spent Fuel Ratio Estimates from Numerical Models in ALE3D
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Margraf, J. D. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Dunn, T. A. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
2016-08-02
Potential threat of intentional sabotage of spent nuclear fuel storage facilities is of significant importance to national security. Paramount is the study of focused energy attacks on these materials and the potential release of aerosolized hazardous particulates into the environment. Depleted uranium oxide (DUO_{2}) is often chosen as a surrogate material for testing due to the unreasonable cost and safety demands for conducting full-scale tests with real spent nuclear fuel. To account for differences in mechanical response resulting in changes to particle distribution it is necessary to scale the DUO_{2} results to get a proper measure for spent fuel. This is accomplished with the spent fuel ratio (SFR), the ratio of respirable aerosol mass released due to identical damage conditions between a spent fuel and a surrogate material like depleted uranium oxide (DUO_{2}). A very limited number of full-scale experiments have been carried out to capture this data, and the oft-questioned validity of the results typically leads to overly-conservative risk estimates. In the present work, the ALE3D hydrocode is used to simulate DUO_{2} and spent nuclear fuel pellets impacted by metal jets. The results demonstrate an alternative approach to estimate the respirable release fraction of fragmented nuclear fuel.
Cardiovascular risk estimation in older persons
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Cooney, Marie Therese; Selmer, Randi; Lindman, Anja
2016-01-01
.73 to 0.75). Calibration was also reasonable, Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test: 17.16 (men), 22.70 (women). Compared with the original SCORE function extrapolated to the ≥65 years age group discrimination improved, p = 0.05 (men), p women). Simple risk charts were constructed. On simulated...... risk estimation systems, that risk factors function similarly in all age groups. We aimed to derive and validate a risk estimation function, SCORE O.P., solely from data from individuals aged 65 years and older. METHODS AND RESULTS: 20,704 men and 20,121 women, aged 65 and over and without pre...... model and were included in the SCORE O.P. model were: age, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, smoking status and diabetes. SCORE O.P. showed good discrimination; area under receiver operator characteristic curve (AUROC) 0.74 (95% confidence interval: 0...
METHODOLOGICAL PROBLEMS OF PRACTICAL RADIOGENIC RISK ESTIMATIONS
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
A. Т. Gubin
2014-01-01
Full Text Available Mathematical ratios were established according to the description of the calculation procedure for the values of the nominal risk coefficient given in the ICRP Recommendations 2007. It is shown that the lifetime radiogenic risk is a linear functional from the distribution of the dose in time with a multiplier descending with age. As a consequence, application of the nominal risk coefficient in the risk calculations is justified in the case when prolonged exposure is practically evenly distributed in time, and gives a significant deviation at a single exposure. When using the additive model of radiogenic risk proposed in the UNSCEAR Report 2006 for solid cancers, this factor is almost linearly decreasing with the age, which is convenient for its practical application.
Estimation, assessment and management of risks
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Reinoehl-Kompa, S.
2005-01-01
After the introductory lectures the closed conference divided into sessions on the estimation, assessment and management of risks. This review article summarises some of the central issues which were addressed in the discussions held during the closed conference and which may be of significance for the future work of the ''Radiation Risk'' Committee within the Radiation Protection Commission. Fundamental difficulties still persist in the implementation of risk quantities within the concepts of radiation protection (lectures by Breckow and Kiefer). Some of these difficulties have to do with the definition of dose quantities, in particular with the one most central to radiation protection, the effective dose. In the field of sparsely ionizing radiation attention was focused on two main topics, namely the risk of acquiring thyroid cancer in association with the Chernobyl desaster and analyses of new mortality data on the survivors of the nuclear bomb attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. In the area of lung cancer risk from radon exposure, attention was focused on indoor exposure and the cohort study on bismuth miners. The body of knowledge that has accumulated on the risk of acquiring cancer through UV radiation takes a special position within the wider field of risks associated with nonionizing radiation, since much has already been achieved towards identifying the action mechanisms involved here. Since skin cancer shows the highest increments in incidence of all types of cancer, estimating the risk of acquiring skin cancer through UV radiation will be an important issue in future. One of the tasks of risk management is to translate the results of risk assessment into action. One task of particular importance in this regard is ''risk communication'', the problems surrounding which were illuminated from different perspectives in various contributions
How much does HDL cholesterol add to risk estimation? A report from the SCORE Investigators.
LENUS (Irish Health Repository)
Cooney, Marie Therese
2009-06-01
Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE), the risk estimation system recommended by the European guidelines on cardiovascular disease prevention, estimates 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease mortality based on age, sex, country of origin, systolic blood pressure, smoking status and either total cholesterol (TC) or TC\\/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) ratio. As, counterintuitively, these two systems perform very similarly, we have investigated whether incorporating HDL-C and TC as separate variables improves risk estimation.
A neural network-based estimator for the mixture ratio of the Space Shuttle Main Engine
Guo, T. H.; Musgrave, J.
1992-11-01
In order to properly utilize the available fuel and oxidizer of a liquid propellant rocket engine, the mixture ratio is closed loop controlled during main stage (65 percent - 109 percent power) operation. However, because of the lack of flight-capable instrumentation for measuring mixture ratio, the value of mixture ratio in the control loop is estimated using available sensor measurements such as the combustion chamber pressure and the volumetric flow, and the temperature and pressure at the exit duct on the low pressure fuel pump. This estimation scheme has two limitations. First, the estimation formula is based on an empirical curve fitting which is accurate only within a narrow operating range. Second, the mixture ratio estimate relies on a few sensor measurements and loss of any of these measurements will make the estimate invalid. In this paper, we propose a neural network-based estimator for the mixture ratio of the Space Shuttle Main Engine. The estimator is an extension of a previously developed neural network based sensor failure detection and recovery algorithm (sensor validation). This neural network uses an auto associative structure which utilizes the redundant information of dissimilar sensors to detect inconsistent measurements. Two approaches have been identified for synthesizing mixture ratio from measurement data using a neural network. The first approach uses an auto associative neural network for sensor validation which is modified to include the mixture ratio as an additional output. The second uses a new network for the mixture ratio estimation in addition to the sensor validation network. Although mixture ratio is not directly measured in flight, it is generally available in simulation and in test bed firing data from facility measurements of fuel and oxidizer volumetric flows. The pros and cons of these two approaches will be discussed in terms of robustness to sensor failures and accuracy of the estimate during typical transients using
[The concept of risk and its estimation].
Zocchetti, C; Della Foglia, M; Colombi, A
1996-01-01
The concept of risk, in relation to human health, is a topic of primary interest for occupational health professionals. A new legislation recently established in Italy (626/94) according to European Community directives in the field of Preventive Medicine, called attention to this topic, and in particular to risk assessment and evaluation. Motivated by this context and by the impression that the concept of risk is frequently misunderstood, the present paper has two aims: the identification of the different meanings of the term "risk" in the new Italian legislation and the critical discussion of some commonly used definitions; and the proposal of a general definition, with the specification of a mathematical expression for quantitative risk estimation. The term risk (and risk estimation, assessment, or evaluation) has mainly referred to three different contexts: hazard identification, exposure assessment, and adverse health effects occurrence. Unfortunately, there are contexts in the legislation in which it is difficult to identify the true meaning of the term. This might cause equivocal interpretations and erroneous applications of the law because hazard evaluation, exposure assessment, and adverse health effects identification are completely different topics that require integrated but distinct approaches to risk management. As far as a quantitative definition of risk is of concern, we suggest an algorithm which connects the three basic risk elements (hazard, exposure, adverse health effects) by means of their probabilities of occurrence: the probability of being exposed (to a definite dose) given that a specific hazard is present (Pr(e[symbol: see text]p)), and the probability of occurrence of an adverse health effect as a consequence of that exposure (Pr(d[symbol: see text]e)). Using these quantitative components, risk can be defined as a sequence of measurable events that starts with hazard identification and terminates with disease occurrence; therefore, the
Two-step estimation in ratio-of-mediator-probability weighted causal mediation analysis.
Bein, Edward; Deutsch, Jonah; Hong, Guanglei; Porter, Kristin E; Qin, Xu; Yang, Cheng
2018-04-15
This study investigates appropriate estimation of estimator variability in the context of causal mediation analysis that employs propensity score-based weighting. Such an analysis decomposes the total effect of a treatment on the outcome into an indirect effect transmitted through a focal mediator and a direct effect bypassing the mediator. Ratio-of-mediator-probability weighting estimates these causal effects by adjusting for the confounding impact of a large number of pretreatment covariates through propensity score-based weighting. In step 1, a propensity score model is estimated. In step 2, the causal effects of interest are estimated using weights derived from the prior step's regression coefficient estimates. Statistical inferences obtained from this 2-step estimation procedure are potentially problematic if the estimated standard errors of the causal effect estimates do not reflect the sampling uncertainty in the estimation of the weights. This study extends to ratio-of-mediator-probability weighting analysis a solution to the 2-step estimation problem by stacking the score functions from both steps. We derive the asymptotic variance-covariance matrix for the indirect effect and direct effect 2-step estimators, provide simulation results, and illustrate with an application study. Our simulation results indicate that the sampling uncertainty in the estimated weights should not be ignored. The standard error estimation using the stacking procedure offers a viable alternative to bootstrap standard error estimation. We discuss broad implications of this approach for causal analysis involving propensity score-based weighting. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Dongwoo Jang
2018-03-01
Full Text Available Leaks in a water distribution network (WDS constitute losses of water supply caused by pipeline failure, operational loss, and physical factors. This has raised the need for studies on the factors affecting the leakage ratio and estimation of leakage volume in a water supply system. In this study, principal component analysis (PCA and artificial neural network (ANN were used to estimate the volume of water leakage in a WDS. For the study, six main effective parameters were selected and standardized data obtained through the Z-score method. The PCA-ANN model was devised and the leakage ratio was estimated. An accuracy assessment was performed to compare the measured leakage ratio to that of the simulated model. The results showed that the PCA-ANN method was more accurate for estimating the leakage ratio than a single ANN simulation. In addition, the estimation results differed according to the number of neurons in the ANN model’s hidden layers. In this study, an ANN with multiple hidden layers was found to be the best method for estimating the leakage ratio with 12–12 neurons. This suggested approaches to improve the accuracy of leakage ratio estimation, as well as a scientific approach toward the sustainable management of water distribution systems.
New Vehicle Detection Method with Aspect Ratio Estimation for Hypothesized Windows
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jisu Kim
2015-12-01
Full Text Available All kinds of vehicles have different ratios of width to height, which are called the aspect ratios. Most previous works, however, use a fixed aspect ratio for vehicle detection (VD. The use of a fixed vehicle aspect ratio for VD degrades the performance. Thus, the estimation of a vehicle aspect ratio is an important part of robust VD. Taking this idea into account, a new on-road vehicle detection system is proposed in this paper. The proposed method estimates the aspect ratio of the hypothesized windows to improve the VD performance. Our proposed method uses an Aggregate Channel Feature (ACF and a support vector machine (SVM to verify the hypothesized windows with the estimated aspect ratio. The contribution of this paper is threefold. First, the estimation of vehicle aspect ratio is inserted between the HG (hypothesis generation and the HV (hypothesis verification. Second, a simple HG method named a signed horizontal edge map is proposed to speed up VD. Third, a new measure is proposed to represent the overlapping ratio between the ground truth and the detection results. This new measure is used to show that the proposed method is better than previous works in terms of robust VD. Finally, the Pittsburgh dataset is used to verify the performance of the proposed method.
Risk Estimates and Risk Factors Related to Psychiatric Inpatient Suicide
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Madsen, Trine; Erlangsen, Annette; Nordentoft, Merete
2017-01-01
trends, and socio-demographic and clinical risk factors of suicide in psychiatric inpatients. Psychiatric inpatients have a very high risk of suicide relative to the background population, but it remains challenging for clinicians to identify those patients that are most likely to die from suicide during......People with mental illness have an increased risk of suicide. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of suicide risk estimates among psychiatric inpatients based on the body of evidence found in scientific peer-reviewed literature; primarily focusing on the relative risks, rates, time...... admission. Most studies are based on low power, thus compromising quality and generalisability. The few studies with sufficient statistical power mainly identified non-modifiable risk predictors such as male gender, diagnosis, or recent deliberate self-harm. Also, the predictive value of these predictors...
Risk Estimates and Risk Factors Related to Psychiatric Inpatient Suicide
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Madsen, Trine; Erlangsen, Annette; Nordentoft, Merete
2017-01-01
People with mental illness have an increased risk of suicide. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of suicide risk estimates among psychiatric inpatients based on the body of evidence found in scientific peer-reviewed literature; primarily focusing on the relative risks, rates, time...... trends, and socio-demographic and clinical risk factors of suicide in psychiatric inpatients. Psychiatric inpatients have a very high risk of suicide relative to the background population, but it remains challenging for clinicians to identify those patients that are most likely to die from suicide during...... is low. It would be of great benefit if future studies would be based on large samples while focusing on modifiable predictors over the course of an admission, such as hopelessness, depressive symptoms, and family/social situations. This would improve our chances of developing better risk assessment...
RATIO ESTIMATORS FOR THE CO-EFFICIENT OF VARIATION IN A FINITE POPULATION
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Archana V
2011-04-01
Full Text Available The Co-efficient of variation (C.V is a relative measure of dispersion and is free from unit of measurement. Hence it is widely used by the scientists in the disciplines of agriculture, biology, economics and environmental science. Although a lot of work has been reported in the past for the estimation of population C.V in infinite population models, they are not directly applicable for the finite populations. In this paper we have proposed six new estimators of the population C.V in finite population using ratio and product type estimators. The bias and mean square error of these estimators are derived for the simple random sampling design. The performance of the estimators is compared using a real life dataset. The ratio estimator using the information on the population C.V of the auxiliary variable emerges as the best estimator
Bayesian parameter estimation in probabilistic risk assessment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Siu, Nathan O.; Kelly, Dana L.
1998-01-01
Bayesian statistical methods are widely used in probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) because of their ability to provide useful estimates of model parameters when data are sparse and because the subjective probability framework, from which these methods are derived, is a natural framework to address the decision problems motivating PRA. This paper presents a tutorial on Bayesian parameter estimation especially relevant to PRA. It summarizes the philosophy behind these methods, approaches for constructing likelihood functions and prior distributions, some simple but realistic examples, and a variety of cautions and lessons regarding practical applications. References are also provided for more in-depth coverage of various topics
New risk estimates at low doses
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fry, R.J.M.
1992-01-01
The age of molecular radiation epidemiology may be at hand. The techniques are available to establish with the degree of precision required to determine whether agent-specific mutations can be identified consistently. A concerted effort to examine radiation-induced changes in as many relevant genes as possible appears to be justified. Cancers in those exposed to low doses of ionizing radiation should be chosen for the investigation. Parallel studies of radiation-induced cancers in experimental animals would not only complement the human studies, but perhaps reveal approaches to extrapolation of risk estimates across species. A caveat should be added to this optimistic view of what molecular studies might contribute to the knotty problem of risk estimates at low doses. The suggestions are made by one with no expertise in the field of molecular biology
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gesh, Christopher J.
2004-01-01
The Graphite Isotope Ratio Method (GIRM) is a technique used to estimate the total plutonium production in a graphite-moderated reactor. The cumulative plutonium production in that reactor can be accurately determined by measuring neutron irradiation induced isotopic ratio changes in certain impurity elements within the graphite moderator. The method does not require detailed knowledge of a reactor's operating history, although that knowledge can decrease the uncertainty of the production estimate. The basic premise of the Graphite Isotope Ratio Method is that the fluence in non-fuel core components is directly related to the cumulative plutonium production in the nuclear fuel
MARKET RISK ESTIMATION IN (T+-TRANSACTIONS
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Radik B. Begov
2016-01-01
Full Text Available Market risk analysis and estimation are presentedin T+ transactionsas they are used within the Moscow Exchange. There is a need to do so as a result of the cut-off of a new REPO product with Central Counterpartner (CCP. Here repurchase agreement goes through the National Clearing Center (NCC, the last being a bank and a clearing structure within the Moscow Exchange group.NCC actsas an intermediary (so called “Central Counterpartner” between trading participants.REPOs with CCP raisecontractor claims and commitments to the CCP which takes the risk of default on commitments from unfair contract side. The REPO with CCP cut-off made ready a technological platform to implement T+2 trades at the Moscow Exchange. As a result of it there appeared the possibility to enter security purchase/sell contracts partially collateralized. All these transactions (the REPO with CCP, T+ made it a must determining security market risks. The paper is aimed at presenting VaR-like risk estimates. The methods used are from the computer fi nance. Unusual TS rate of return indicator is proposed and applied to find optimal portfolios under the Markowitz approach and their VaRs (losses forecasts given the real “big” share price data and various horizons. Portfolio extreme rate and loss forecasting is our goal. To this end the forecasts are computed for three horizons (2, 5 and 10 days and for three significance levels.There were developed R-, Excel- and Bloomberg-basedsoftware tools as needed. The whole range of proposed computing steps and the tables with charts may be considered as candidates to be included in the future market risk standards.Paper results permit capital market participants to choose the correct (as to the required risk level common stocks.
Analytic Investigation Into Effect of Population Heterogeneity on Parameter Ratio Estimates
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Schinkel, Colleen; Carlone, Marco; Warkentin, Brad; Fallone, B. Gino
2007-01-01
Purpose: A homogeneous tumor control probability (TCP) model has previously been used to estimate the α/β ratio for prostate cancer from clinical dose-response data. For the ratio to be meaningful, it must be assumed that parameter ratios are not sensitive to the type of tumor control model used. We investigated the validity of this assumption by deriving analytic relationships between the α/β estimates from a homogeneous TCP model, ignoring interpatient heterogeneity, and those of the corresponding heterogeneous (population-averaged) model that incorporated heterogeneity. Methods and Materials: The homogeneous and heterogeneous TCP models can both be written in terms of the geometric parameters D 50 and γ 50 . We show that the functional forms of these models are similar. This similarity was used to develop an expression relating the homogeneous and heterogeneous estimates for the α/β ratio. The expression was verified numerically by generating pseudo-data from a TCP curve with known parameters and then using the homogeneous and heterogeneous TCP models to estimate the α/β ratio for the pseudo-data. Results: When the dominant form of interpatient heterogeneity is that of radiosensitivity, the homogeneous and heterogeneous α/β estimates differ. This indicates that the presence of this heterogeneity affects the value of the α/β ratio derived from analysis of TCP curves. Conclusions: The α/β ratio estimated from clinical dose-response data is model dependent-a heterogeneous TCP model that accounts for heterogeneity in radiosensitivity will produce a greater α/β estimate than that resulting from a homogeneous TCP model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gilbert, R.O.; Simpson, J.C.; Engel, D.W.; Kinnison, R.R.
1984-03-01
For NS201 the estimated average 239 240 Pu to 241 Am ratios for vegetation and soil are 7.3 and 11.5, respectively, where the 241 Am data were obtained using wet chemistry. The geometric mean 90 Sr to 137 Cs ratios for vegetation and soil at NS201 are estimated to be 1.1 and 1.9. These results suggest that the true (population) median 239 240 Pu to 241 Am and 90 Sr to 137 Cs ratios are smaller for vegetation than for soil at NS201. For NS219 and NS221 the estimated average 239 240 Pu to 241 Am ratios for surface soil at NS219 and NS221 are 2.8 and 0.78, respectively. There is an obvious statistical difference in the average 239 240 Pu to 241 Am ratios at these sites. The geometric mean 239 240 Pu to 241 Am ratios for vegetation samples at NS219 and NS221 are estimated to be 3.2 and 0.82, respectively. The data suggest there may be a difference in the 239 240 Pu to 241 Am ratios for soil and vegetation at NS219, but not at NS221. The geometric mean 90 Sr to 137 Cs ratio for surface soil at NS219 and NS221 combined is 0.93. The geometric mean 90 Sr to 137 Cs ratio for vegetation for the two sites (pooled data) is estimated to be 1.8. 43 references, 42 figures, 7 tables
Doss, Hani; Tan, Aixin
2014-09-01
In the classical biased sampling problem, we have k densities π 1 (·), …, π k (·), each known up to a normalizing constant, i.e. for l = 1, …, k , π l (·) = ν l (·)/ m l , where ν l (·) is a known function and m l is an unknown constant. For each l , we have an iid sample from π l , · and the problem is to estimate the ratios m l /m s for all l and all s . This problem arises frequently in several situations in both frequentist and Bayesian inference. An estimate of the ratios was developed and studied by Vardi and his co-workers over two decades ago, and there has been much subsequent work on this problem from many different perspectives. In spite of this, there are no rigorous results in the literature on how to estimate the standard error of the estimate. We present a class of estimates of the ratios of normalizing constants that are appropriate for the case where the samples from the π l 's are not necessarily iid sequences, but are Markov chains. We also develop an approach based on regenerative simulation for obtaining standard errors for the estimates of ratios of normalizing constants. These standard error estimates are valid for both the iid case and the Markov chain case.
Methods to estimate the genetic risk
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ehling, U.H.
1989-01-01
The estimation of the radiation-induced genetic risk to human populations is based on the extrapolation of results from animal experiments. Radiation-induced mutations are stochastic events. The probability of the event depends on the dose; the degree of the damage dose not. There are two main approaches in making genetic risk estimates. One of these, termed the direct method, expresses risk in terms of expected frequencies of genetic changes induced per unit dose. The other, referred to as the doubling dose method or the indirect method, expresses risk in relation to the observed incidence of genetic disorders now present in man. The advantage of the indirect method is that not only can Mendelian mutations be quantified, but also other types of genetic disorders. The disadvantages of the method are the uncertainties in determining the current incidence of genetic disorders in human and, in addition, the estimasion of the genetic component of congenital anomalies, anomalies expressed later and constitutional and degenerative diseases. Using the direct method we estimated that 20-50 dominant radiation-induced mutations would be expected in 19 000 offspring born to parents exposed in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, but only a small proportion of these mutants would have been detected with the techniques used for the population study. These methods were used to predict the genetic damage from the fallout of the reactor accident at Chernobyl in the vicinity of Southern Germany. The lack of knowledge for the interaction of chemicals with ionizing radiation and the discrepancy between the high safety standards for radiation protection and the low level of knowledge for the toxicological evaluation of chemical mutagens will be emphasized. (author)
Change-in-ratio density estimator for feral pigs is less biased than closed mark-recapture estimates
Hanson, L.B.; Grand, J.B.; Mitchell, M.S.; Jolley, D.B.; Sparklin, B.D.; Ditchkoff, S.S.
2008-01-01
Closed-population capture-mark-recapture (CMR) methods can produce biased density estimates for species with low or heterogeneous detection probabilities. In an attempt to address such biases, we developed a density-estimation method based on the change in ratio (CIR) of survival between two populations where survival, calculated using an open-population CMR model, is known to differ. We used our method to estimate density for a feral pig (Sus scrofa) population on Fort Benning, Georgia, USA. To assess its validity, we compared it to an estimate of the minimum density of pigs known to be alive and two estimates based on closed-population CMR models. Comparison of the density estimates revealed that the CIR estimator produced a density estimate with low precision that was reasonable with respect to minimum known density. By contrast, density point estimates using the closed-population CMR models were less than the minimum known density, consistent with biases created by low and heterogeneous capture probabilities for species like feral pigs that may occur in low density or are difficult to capture. Our CIR density estimator may be useful for tracking broad-scale, long-term changes in species, such as large cats, for which closed CMR models are unlikely to work. ?? CSIRO 2008.
A review of radiation risk estimates
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
1991-06-01
Three authoritative reports (UNSCEAR-1988, BEIR-V-1990, and ICRP-1990 Recommendations) on risk estimates have been reviewed and compared to previous risk estimates published by the same organizations. The ICRP now uses the term 'probability' in place of the term 'risk'. For fatal cancers, the new ICRP probability estimates are 5.0 x 10 -2 Sv -1 for a population of all ages and 4.0 x 10 -2 Sv -1 for a population of working age. For serious hereditary effects summarized over all generations, the ICRP probability coefficients are 1.0 x 10 -2 Sv -1 for a population of all ages and 0.6 x 10 -2 Sv -1 for a population of working age. For prenatal irradiation, at 8 - 15 weeks after conception, there may be a decrease of 30 I.Q. points per Sv and a risk of cancer which may lie in the range of 2 to 10 x 10 -2 Sv -1 . Based mainly on the new probability estimates the ICRP recommends a limit on effective dose of 20 mSv per year, averaged over 5 years (100 mSv in 5 years) with the further provision that the effective dose should not exceed 50 mSv in any single year. For public exposure the ICRP recommends an annual limit on effective dose of 1 mSv. However, in special circumstances, a higher value of effective dose could be allowed in a single year provided that the average over 5 five years does not exceed 1 mSv per year. Once pregnancy has been declared, the conceptus should be protected by applying a supplementary equivalent dose limit to the surface of the woman's abdomen of 2 mSv for the remainder of the pregnancy and by limiting intakes of radionuclides to about 1/20 of the annual limit on intake. A brief survey of epidemiological studies of workers and the risks from radon and thoron progeny is also included. (110 refs, 29 tabs., 10 figs.)
The estimation of risk-premium implicit in oil prices
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Luis, J.B.
2001-01-01
The futures price can be seen as the sum of the expected value of the underlying asset price and a risk-premium. In order to disentangle these two components of the futures price, one can try to model the relationship between spot and futures prices, in order to obtain a closed expression for the risk-premium, or to use information from spot and option prices to estimate risk-aversion functions. Given the high volatility of the ratios between futures and spot prices, we opted for the latter, estimating risk-neutral and subjective probability density functions, respectively, from observed option and spot prices. looking at the prices of Brent and West Texas Intermediate light/sweet crude oil options, the obtained evidence suggests that risk-aversion is typically very low for levels near the futures prices. However, due to price volatility and, consequently, to the tails of distribution, the risk-aversion functions are badly behaved in extreme prices and futures prices do not anticipate sharp movements in oil spot prices. Therefore, futures oil prices seem to be useful in forecasting spot prices only when moderate price changes occur. (author)
Cash, W.
1979-01-01
Many problems in the experimental estimation of parameters for models can be solved through use of the likelihood ratio test. Applications of the likelihood ratio, with particular attention to photon counting experiments, are discussed. The procedures presented solve a greater range of problems than those currently in use, yet are no more difficult to apply. The procedures are proved analytically, and examples from current problems in astronomy are discussed.
Reducing sequence risk using trend following and the CAPE ratio
Clare, A.; Thomas, S.; Smith, P. N.; Seaton, J.
2017-01-01
The risk of experiencing bad investment outcomes at the wrong time, or sequence risk, is a poorly understood, but crucial aspect of the risk faced by investors, in particular those in the decumulation phase of their savings journey, typically over the period of retirement financed by a defined contributions pension scheme. Using US equity return data from 1872-2014 we show how this risk can be significantly reduced by applying trend-following investment strategies. We also demonstrate that kn...
Risk aversion vs. the Omega ratio : Consistency results
Balder, Sven; Schweizer, Nikolaus
This paper clarifies when the Omega ratio and related performance measures are consistent with second order stochastic dominance and when they are not. To avoid consistency problems, the threshold parameter in the ratio should be chosen as the expected return of some benchmark – as is commonly done
Dehghani, Mahdieh; Shadkam, Elaheh; Ahrari, Farzaneh; Dehghani, Mahboobe
2018-04-01
Age estimation in adults is an important issue in forensic science. This study aimed to estimate the chronological age of Iranians by means of pulp/tooth area ratio (AR) of canines in digital panoramic radiographs. The sample consisted of panoramic radiographs of 271 male and female subjects aged 16-64 years. The pulp/tooth area ratio (AR) of upper and lower canines was calculated by AutoCAD software. Data were subjected to correlation and regression analysis. There was a significant and inverse correlation between age and pulp/tooth area ratio of upper and lower canines (r=-0.794 for upper canine and r=-0.282 for lower canine; p-value<0.001). Linear regression equations were derived separately for upper, lower and both canines. The mean difference between actual and estimated age using upper canine was 6.07±1.7. The results showed that the pulp/tooth area ratios of canines are a reliable method for age estimation in Iranians. The pulp/tooth area ratio of upper canine was better correlated with chronological age than that of lower canine. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Salazar, Martin R; Carbajal, Horacio A; Espeche, Walter G; Aizpurúa, Marcelo; Maciel, Pablo M; Reaven, Gerald M
2014-02-01
The plasma concentration ratio of triglyceride (TG)/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) can identify cardiometabolic risk and cardiovascular disease. The visceral adiposity index is a sex-specific index, in which measurements of body mass index and waist circumference are combined with TG and HDL-C concentrations. The current analysis was initiated to see if the visceral adiposity index would improve the ability of the TG/HDL-C to identify increased cardiometabolic risk and outcome. Cardiometabolic data were obtained in 2003 from 926 apparently healthy individuals, 796 of whom were evaluated in 2012 for evidence of incident cardiovascular disease. The relationship between TG/HDL-C and values for visceral adiposity index was evaluated by Pearson's correlation coefficient. The relative risks for first cardiovascular event between individuals above and below the TG/HDL-C sex-specific cut points, and in the top quartile of visceral adiposity index versus the remaining 3 quartiles, were estimated using Cox proportional hazard models. TG/HDL-C concentration and visceral adiposity index were highly correlated (r = 0.99) in both men and women. Although more men (133 vs121) and women (73 vs 59) were identified as being at "high risk" by an elevated TG/HDL-C ratio, the individual cardiometabolic risk factors were essentially identical with either index used. However, the hazard ratio of developing cardiovascular disease was significantly increased in individuals with an elevated TG/HDL-C, whereas it was not the case when the visceral adiposity index was used to define "high risk." The visceral adiposity index does not identify individuals with an adverse cardiometabolic profile any better than the TG/HDL-C. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Estimation of foetus risk from x-ray pelvimetric examinations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Iba, Shozo; Sato, Kazuichi
1983-01-01
X-ray pelvimetric examinations are carried out for the purpose of diagnosing the cephalo pelvic disproportion at terminal pregnancy and they are still an excellent method, being performed more often than other examinations. However the invitable fetal exposure is considered to be a significant dose and makes an estimation of stochastic fetal risk related to x-ray exposure and to investigate the methods of dose reduction. As the methods judging the exposure dose actually made in the hospitals, a questionnarie regarding the main technical factors of an x-ray examination was given to 26 hospitals, including 5 university hospitals, in Kantou district, and the answeres were analyzed. The estimated risks involving genetics, leukemia and malignant diseases were dependent on the exposure dose which could be calculated on the basis of the technical factors obtained. Total risks on the foetus ranged widely from 1.27 x 10 rad -1 to 1.19 x 10 rad -1 . So for as we have investigated, if all the hospitals used a grid ratio of 5:1, a tube voltage of 120 kV, intensitying screens with rare earth phosphors and green-sensitive orthomatic medical x-ray films for the x-ray pelvimetric examinations, it would be possible to reduce the present exposure dose by one-fourth. The ratio of the x-ray pelvimetry taken on pregnant patients ranged from 2 % to 33 %, having a mean value of 15 %. (author)
Estimating the risk of Amazonian forest dieback.
Rammig, Anja; Jupp, Tim; Thonicke, Kirsten; Tietjen, Britta; Heinke, Jens; Ostberg, Sebastian; Lucht, Wolfgang; Cramer, Wolfgang; Cox, Peter
2010-08-01
*Climate change will very likely affect most forests in Amazonia during the course of the 21st century, but the direction and intensity of the change are uncertain, in part because of differences in rainfall projections. In order to constrain this uncertainty, we estimate the probability for biomass change in Amazonia on the basis of rainfall projections that are weighted by climate model performance for current conditions. *We estimate the risk of forest dieback by using weighted rainfall projections from 24 general circulation models (GCMs) to create probability density functions (PDFs) for future forest biomass changes simulated by a dynamic vegetation model (LPJmL). *Our probabilistic assessment of biomass change suggests a likely shift towards increasing biomass compared with nonweighted results. Biomass estimates range between a gain of 6.2 and a loss of 2.7 kg carbon m(-2) for the Amazon region, depending on the strength of CO(2) fertilization. *The uncertainty associated with the long-term effect of CO(2) is much larger than that associated with precipitation change. This underlines the importance of reducing uncertainties in the direct effects of CO(2) on tropical ecosystems.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zheng, Y P; Choi, A P C; Ling, H Y; Huang, Y P
2009-01-01
Indentation is commonly used to determine the mechanical properties of different kinds of biological tissues and engineering materials. With the force–deformation data obtained from an indentation test, Young's modulus of the tissue can be calculated using a linear elastic indentation model with a known Poisson's ratio. A novel method for simultaneous estimation of Young's modulus and Poisson's ratio of the tissue using a single indentation was proposed in this study. Finite element (FE) analysis using 3D models was first used to establish the relationship between Poisson's ratio and the deformation-dependent indentation stiffness for different aspect ratios (indentor radius/tissue original thickness) in the indentation test. From the FE results, it was found that the deformation-dependent indentation stiffness linearly increased with the deformation. Poisson's ratio could be extracted based on the deformation-dependent indentation stiffness obtained from the force–deformation data. Young's modulus was then further calculated with the estimated Poisson's ratio. The feasibility of this method was demonstrated in virtue of using the indentation models with different material properties in the FE analysis. The numerical results showed that the percentage errors of the estimated Poisson's ratios and the corresponding Young's moduli ranged from −1.7% to −3.2% and 3.0% to 7.2%, respectively, with the aspect ratio (indentor radius/tissue thickness) larger than 1. It is expected that this novel method can be potentially used for quantitative assessment of various kinds of engineering materials and biological tissues, such as articular cartilage
Why is the Ratio of Reflectivity Effective for Chlorophyll Estimation in the Lake Water?
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Kazuo Oki
2010-07-01
Full Text Available The reasons why it is effective to estimate the chlorophyll-a concentration with the ratio of spectral radiance reflectance at the red light region and near infrared regions were shown in theory using a two-flow model. It was found that all of the backscattering coefficients can consequently be ignored by using the ratio of spectral radiance reflectance, which is the ratio of the upward radiance to the downward irradiance, at the red light and near infrared regions. In other words, the ratio can be expressed by using only absorption coefficients, which are more stable for measurement than backscattering coefficients. In addition, the band selection is crucial for producing the band ratio when the chlorophyll-a concentration is estimated without the effects of backscattering. I conclude that the two wavelengths selected must be close, but one must be within the absorption range of chlorophyll-a, and the other must be outside of the absorption range of chlorophyll-a, in order to accurately estimate the chlorophyll-a concentration.
A passive technique using SSNTDs for Estimation of thorium to uranium ratios in rocks
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kenawy, M.A.; Sayyah, T.A.; Said, A.F.; Hafez, A.F.
2005-01-01
A passive technique using plastic nuclear track detectors (CR-39 and LR-115) is presented to estimate Th/U ratios and consequently the thorium and uranium content in granites taken from uranium exploration mines in Egyptian desert. The registration sensitivities of both CR-39 and LR-115 detector for close contact alpha-radiography uranium and thorium concentrations in ppm were computed
Estimation of the energy ratio between primary and ambience components in stereo audio data
Harma, A.S.
2011-01-01
Stereo audio signal is often modeled as a mixture of instantaneously mixed primary components and uncorrelated ambience components. This paper focuses on the estimation of the primary-to-ambience energy ratio, PAR. This measure is useful for signal decomposition in stereo and multichannel audio
Estimating the ratio of pond size to irrigated soybean land in Mississippi: a case study
Ying Ouyang; G. Feng; J. Read; T. D. Leininger; J. N. Jenkins
2016-01-01
Although more on-farm storage ponds have been constructed in recent years to mitigate groundwater resources depletion in Mississippi, little effort has been devoted to estimating the ratio of on-farm water storage pond size to irrigated crop land based on pond metric and its hydrogeological conditions.Â In this study, two simulation scenarios were chosen to...
Estimation of S/G ratio in woods using 1064 nm FT-Raman spectroscopy
Umesh P. Agarwal; Sally A. Ralph; Dharshana Padmakshan; Sarah Liu; Steven D. Karlen; Cliff Foster; John Ralph
2015-01-01
Two simple methods based on the 370 cm-1 Raman band intensity were developed for estimation of syringyl-to-guaiacyl (S/G) ratio in woods. The methods, in principle, are representative of the whole cell wall lignin and not just the portion of lignin that gets cleaved to release monomers, for example, during certain S/G chemical analyses. As such,...
Estimating cost ratio distribution between fatal and non-fatal road accidents in Malaysia
Hamdan, Nurhidayah; Daud, Noorizam
2014-07-01
Road traffic crashes are a global major problem, and should be treated as a shared responsibility. In Malaysia, road accident tragedies kill 6,917 people and injure or disable 17,522 people in year 2012, and government spent about RM9.3 billion in 2009 which cost the nation approximately 1 to 2 percent loss of gross domestic product (GDP) reported annually. The current cost ratio for fatal and non-fatal accident used by Ministry of Works Malaysia simply based on arbitrary value of 6:4 or equivalent 1.5:1 depends on the fact that there are six factors involved in the calculation accident cost for fatal accident while four factors for non-fatal accident. The simple indication used by the authority to calculate the cost ratio is doubted since there is lack of mathematical and conceptual evidence to explain how this ratio is determined. The main aim of this study is to determine the new accident cost ratio for fatal and non-fatal accident in Malaysia based on quantitative statistical approach. The cost ratio distributions will be estimated based on Weibull distribution. Due to the unavailability of official accident cost data, insurance claim data both for fatal and non-fatal accident have been used as proxy information for the actual accident cost. There are two types of parameter estimates used in this study, which are maximum likelihood (MLE) and robust estimation. The findings of this study reveal that accident cost ratio for fatal and non-fatal claim when using MLE is 1.33, while, for robust estimates, the cost ratio is slightly higher which is 1.51. This study will help the authority to determine a more accurate cost ratio between fatal and non-fatal accident as compared to the official ratio set by the government, since cost ratio is an important element to be used as a weightage in modeling road accident related data. Therefore, this study provides some guidance tips to revise the insurance claim set by the Malaysia road authority, hence the appropriate method
Estimation of Finite Population Ratio When Other Auxiliary Variables are Available in the Study
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jehad Al-Jararha
2014-12-01
Full Text Available The estimation of the population total $t_y,$ by using one or moreauxiliary variables, and the population ratio $\\theta_{xy}=t_y/t_x,$$t_x$ is the population total for the auxiliary variable $X$, for afinite population are heavily discussed in the literature. In thispaper, the idea of estimation the finite population ratio$\\theta_{xy}$ is extended to use the availability of auxiliaryvariable $Z$ in the study, such auxiliary variable is not used inthe definition of the population ratio. This idea may be supported by the fact that the variable $Z$ is highly correlated with the interest variable $Y$ than the correlation between the variables $X$ and $Y.$ The availability of such auxiliary variable can be used to improve the precision of the estimation of the population ratio. To our knowledge, this idea is not discussed in the literature. The bias, variance and the mean squares error are given for our approach. Simulation from real data set, the empirical relative bias and the empirical relative mean squares error are computed for our approach and different estimators proposed in the literature for estimating the population ratio $\\theta_{xy}.$ Analytically and the simulation results show that, by suitable choices, our approach gives negligible bias and has less mean squares error.
Age Estimation of African Lions Panthera leo by Ratio of Tooth Areas.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Paula A White
Full Text Available Improved age estimation of African lions Panthera leo is needed to address a number of pressing conservation issues. Here we present a formula for estimating lion age to within six months of known age based on measuring the extent of pulp closure from X-rays, or Ratio Of tooth AReas (ROAR. Derived from measurements taken from lions aged 3-13 years for which exact ages were known, the formula explains 92% of the total variance. The method of calculating the pulp/tooth area ratio, which has been used extensively in forensic science, is novel in the study of lion aging. As a quantifiable measure, ROAR offers improved lion age estimates for population modeling and investigations of age-related mortality, and may assist national and international wildlife authorities in judging compliance with regulatory measures involving age.
Age Estimation of African Lions Panthera leo by Ratio of Tooth Areas.
White, Paula A; Ikanda, Dennis; Ferrante, Luigi; Chardonnet, Philippe; Mesochina, Pascal; Cameriere, Roberto
2016-01-01
Improved age estimation of African lions Panthera leo is needed to address a number of pressing conservation issues. Here we present a formula for estimating lion age to within six months of known age based on measuring the extent of pulp closure from X-rays, or Ratio Of tooth AReas (ROAR). Derived from measurements taken from lions aged 3-13 years for which exact ages were known, the formula explains 92% of the total variance. The method of calculating the pulp/tooth area ratio, which has been used extensively in forensic science, is novel in the study of lion aging. As a quantifiable measure, ROAR offers improved lion age estimates for population modeling and investigations of age-related mortality, and may assist national and international wildlife authorities in judging compliance with regulatory measures involving age.
Simplifying cardiovascular risk estimation using resting heart rate.
LENUS (Irish Health Repository)
Cooney, Marie Therese
2010-09-01
Elevated resting heart rate (RHR) is a known, independent cardiovascular (CV) risk factor, but is not included in risk estimation systems, including Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE). We aimed to derive risk estimation systems including RHR as an extra variable and assess the value of this addition.
Reconciling estimates of the ratio of heat and salt fluxes at the ice-ocean interface
Keitzl, T.; Mellado, J. P.; Notz, D.
2016-12-01
The heat exchange between floating ice and the underlying ocean is determined by the interplay of diffusive fluxes directly at the ice-ocean interface and turbulent fluxes away from it. In this study, we examine this interplay through direct numerical simulations of free convection. Our results show that an estimation of the interface flux ratio based on direct measurements of the turbulent fluxes can be difficult because the flux ratio varies with depth. As an alternative, we present a consistent evaluation of the flux ratio based on the total heat and salt fluxes across the boundary layer. This approach allows us to reconcile previous estimates of the ice-ocean interface conditions. We find that the ratio of heat and salt fluxes directly at the interface is 83-100 rather than 33 as determined by previous turbulence measurements in the outer layer. This can cause errors in the estimated ice-ablation rate from field measurements of up to 40% if they are based on the three-equation formulation.
Variance computations for functional of absolute risk estimates.
Pfeiffer, R M; Petracci, E
2011-07-01
We present a simple influence function based approach to compute the variances of estimates of absolute risk and functions of absolute risk. We apply this approach to criteria that assess the impact of changes in the risk factor distribution on absolute risk for an individual and at the population level. As an illustration we use an absolute risk prediction model for breast cancer that includes modifiable risk factors in addition to standard breast cancer risk factors. Influence function based variance estimates for absolute risk and the criteria are compared to bootstrap variance estimates.
A New Model for the Estimation of Breast Cancer Risk
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Giger, Maryellen Lissak
2001-01-01
... for use in estimating risk of breast cancer. The specific aims include 1. Creating a database of mammograms, along with tabulated clinical information of women at low risk and high risk for breast cancer; 2...
Statistical modeling and MAP estimation for body fat quantification with MRI ratio imaging
Wong, Wilbur C. K.; Johnson, David H.; Wilson, David L.
2008-03-01
We are developing small animal imaging techniques to characterize the kinetics of lipid accumulation/reduction of fat depots in response to genetic/dietary factors associated with obesity and metabolic syndromes. Recently, we developed an MR ratio imaging technique that approximately yields lipid/{lipid + water}. In this work, we develop a statistical model for the ratio distribution that explicitly includes a partial volume (PV) fraction of fat and a mixture of a Rician and multiple Gaussians. Monte Carlo hypothesis testing showed that our model was valid over a wide range of coefficient of variation of the denominator distribution (c.v.: 0-0:20) and correlation coefficient among the numerator and denominator (ρ 0-0.95), which cover the typical values that we found in MRI data sets (c.v.: 0:027-0:063, ρ: 0:50-0:75). Then a maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimate for the fat percentage per voxel is proposed. Using a digital phantom with many PV voxels, we found that ratio values were not linearly related to PV fat content and that our method accurately described the histogram. In addition, the new method estimated the ground truth within +1.6% vs. +43% for an approach using an uncorrected ratio image, when we simply threshold the ratio image. On the six genetically obese rat data sets, the MAP estimate gave total fat volumes of 279 +/- 45mL, values 21% smaller than those from the uncorrected ratio images, principally due to the non-linear PV effect. We conclude that our algorithm can increase the accuracy of fat volume quantification even in regions having many PV voxels, e.g. ectopic fat depots.
Chrubasik, Sigrun A; Chrubasik, Cosima A; Piper, Jörg; Schulte-Moenting, Juergen; Erne, Paul
2015-01-01
In models and scores for estimating cardiovascular risk (CVR), the relative weightings given to blood pressure measurements (BPMs), and biometric and laboratory variables are such that even large differences in blood pressure lead to rather low differences in the resulting total risk when compared with other concurrent risk factors. We evaluated this phenomenon based on the PROCAM score, using BPMs made by volunteer subjects at home (HBPMs) and automated ambulatory BPMs (ABPMs) carried out in the same subjects. A total of 153 volunteers provided the data needed to estimate their CVR by means of the PROCAM formula. Differences (deltaCVR) between the risk estimated by entering the ABPM and that estimated with the HBPM were compared with the differences (deltaBPM) between the ABPM and the corresponding HBPM. In addition to the median values (= second quartile), the first and third quartiles of blood pressure profiles were also considered. PROCAM risk values were converted to European Society of Cardiology (ESC) risk values and all participants were assigned to the risk groups low, medium and high. Based on the PROCAM score, 132 participants had a low risk for suffering myocardial infarction, 16 a medium risk and 5 a high risk. The calculated ESC scores classified 125 participants into the low-risk group, 26 into the medium- and 2 into the high-risk group for death from a cardiovascular event. Mean ABPM tended to be higher than mean HBPM. Use of mean systolic ABPM or HBPM in the PROCAM formula had no major impact on the risk level. Our observations are in agreement with the rather low weighting of blood pressure as risk determinant in the PROCAM score. BPMs assessed with different methods had relatively little impact on estimation of cardiovascular risk in the given context of other important determinants. The risk calculations in our unselected population reflect the given classification of Switzerland as a so-called cardiovascular "low risk country".
Likelihood ratio-based integrated personal risk assessment of type 2 diabetes.
Sato, Noriko; Htun, Nay Chi; Daimon, Makoto; Tamiya, Gen; Kato, Takeo; Kubota, Isao; Ueno, Yoshiyuki; Yamashita, Hidetoshi; Fukao, Akira; Kayama, Takamasa; Muramatsu, Masaaki
2014-01-01
To facilitate personalized health care for multifactorial diseases, risks of genetic and clinical/environmental factors should be assessed together for each individual in an integrated fashion. This approach is possible with the likelihood ratio (LR)-based risk assessment system, as this system can incorporate manifold tests. We examined the usefulness of this system for assessing type 2 diabetes (T2D). Our system employed 29 genetic susceptibility variants, body mass index (BMI), and hypertension as risk factors whose LRs can be estimated from openly available T2D association data for the Japanese population. The pretest probability was set at a sex- and age-appropriate population average of diabetes prevalence. The classification performance of our LR-based risk assessment was compared to that of a non-invasive screening test for diabetes called TOPICS (with score based on age, sex, family history, smoking, BMI, and hypertension) using receiver operating characteristic analysis with a community cohort (n = 1263). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for the LR-based assessment and TOPICS was 0.707 (95% CI 0.665-0.750) and 0.719 (0.675-0.762), respectively. These AUCs were much higher than that of a genetic risk score constructed using the same genetic susceptibility variants, 0.624 (0.574-0.674). The use of ethnically matched LRs is necessary for proper personal risk assessment. In conclusion, although LR-based integrated risk assessment for T2D still requires additional tests that evaluate other factors, such as risks involved in missing heritability, our results indicate the potential usability of LR-based assessment system and stress the importance of stratified epidemiological investigations in personalized medicine.
Efficient estimators for likelihood ratio sensitivity indices of complex stochastic dynamics
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Arampatzis, Georgios; Katsoulakis, Markos A.; Rey-Bellet, Luc [Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Massachusetts 01003 (United States)
2016-03-14
We demonstrate that centered likelihood ratio estimators for the sensitivity indices of complex stochastic dynamics are highly efficient with low, constant in time variance and consequently they are suitable for sensitivity analysis in long-time and steady-state regimes. These estimators rely on a new covariance formulation of the likelihood ratio that includes as a submatrix a Fisher information matrix for stochastic dynamics and can also be used for fast screening of insensitive parameters and parameter combinations. The proposed methods are applicable to broad classes of stochastic dynamics such as chemical reaction networks, Langevin-type equations and stochastic models in finance, including systems with a high dimensional parameter space and/or disparate decorrelation times between different observables. Furthermore, they are simple to implement as a standard observable in any existing simulation algorithm without additional modifications.
Estimation of health risks from radiation exposures
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Randolph, M.L.
1983-08-01
An informal presentation is given of the cancer and genetic risks from exposures to ionizing radiations. The risks from plausible radiation exposures are shown to be comparable to other commonly encountered risks.
Estimation of health risks from radiation exposures
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Randolph, M.L.
1983-08-01
An informal presentation is given of the cancer and genetic risks from exposures to ionizing radiations. The risks from plausible radiation exposures are shown to be comparable to other commonly encountered risks
Review of the current status of radiation risk estimates
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Charles, M.W.; Little, M.P.
1988-10-01
This report reviews the current status of radiation risk estimation for low linear energy transfer radiation. Recent statements by various national and international organisations regarding risk estimates are critically discussed. The recently published revised population risk estimates from the study of Japanese bomb survivors are also reviewed and used with some unpublished data from Japan to calculate risk figures for a general work force. (author)
An application of extreme value theory in estimating liquidity risk
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sonia Benito Muela
2017-09-01
Full Text Available The last global financial crisis (2007–2008 has highlighted the weaknesses of value at risk (VaR as a measure of market risk, as this metric by itself does not take liquidity risk into account. To address this problem, the academic literature has proposed incorporating liquidity risk into estimations of market risk by adding the VaR of the spread to the risk price. The parametric model is the standard approach used to estimate liquidity risk. As this approach does not generate reliable VaR estimates, we propose estimating liquidity risk using more sophisticated models based on extreme value theory (EVT. We find that the approach based on conditional extreme value theory outperforms the standard approach in terms of accurate VaR estimates and the market risk capital requirements of the Basel Capital Accord.
Background: Anticoagulation management is difficult in chronic kidney disease, with frequent supratherapeutic international normalized ratios (INRs >/= 4) increasing hemorrhagic risk. We evaluated whether the interaction of INR and lower estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) increases hemorrha...
Estimation of indoor and outdoor ratios of selected volatile organic compounds in Canada
Xu, Jing; Szyszkowicz, Mieczyslaw; Jovic, Branka; Cakmak, Sabit; Austin, Claire C.; Zhu, Jiping
2016-09-01
Indoor air and outdoor air concentration (I/O) ratio can be used to identify the origins of volatile organic compounds (VOCs). I/O ratios of 25 VOCs in Canada were estimated based on the data collected in various areas in Canada between September 2009 and December 2011. The indoor VOC data were extracted from the Canadian Health Measures Survey (CHMS). Outdoor VOC data were obtained from Canada's National Air Pollution Surveillance (NAPS) Network. The sampling locations covered nine areas in six provinces in Canada. Indoor air concentrations were found higher than outdoor air for all studied VOCs, except for carbon tetrachloride. Two different approaches were employed to estimate the I/O ratios; both approaches produced similar I/O values. The I/O ratios obtained from this study were similar to two other Canadian studies where indoor air and outdoor air of individual dwellings were measured. However, the I/O ratios found in Canada were higher than those in European cities and in two large USA cities, possibly due to the fact that the outdoor air concentrations recorded in the Canadian studies were lower. Possible source origins identified for the studied VOCs based on their I/O ratios were similar to those reported by others. In general, chlorinated hydrocarbons, short-chain (C5, C6) n-alkanes and benzene had significant outdoor sources, while long-chain (C10sbnd C12) n-alkanes, terpenes, naphthalene and styrene had significant indoor sources. The remaining VOCs had mixed indoor and outdoor sources.
Estimating HIES Data through Ratio and Regression Methods for Different Sampling Designs
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Faqir Muhammad
2007-01-01
Full Text Available In this study, comparison has been made for different sampling designs, using the HIES data of North West Frontier Province (NWFP for 2001-02 and 1998-99 collected from the Federal Bureau of Statistics, Statistical Division, Government of Pakistan, Islamabad. The performance of the estimators has also been considered using bootstrap and Jacknife. A two-stage stratified random sample design is adopted by HIES. In the first stage, enumeration blocks and villages are treated as the first stage Primary Sampling Units (PSU. The sample PSU’s are selected with probability proportional to size. Secondary Sampling Units (SSU i.e., households are selected by systematic sampling with a random start. They have used a single study variable. We have compared the HIES technique with some other designs, which are: Stratified Simple Random Sampling. Stratified Systematic Sampling. Stratified Ranked Set Sampling. Stratified Two Phase Sampling. Ratio and Regression methods were applied with two study variables, which are: Income (y and Household sizes (x. Jacknife and Bootstrap are used for variance replication. Simple Random Sampling with sample size (462 to 561 gave moderate variances both by Jacknife and Bootstrap. By applying Systematic Sampling, we received moderate variance with sample size (467. In Jacknife with Systematic Sampling, we obtained variance of regression estimator greater than that of ratio estimator for a sample size (467 to 631. At a sample size (952 variance of ratio estimator gets greater than that of regression estimator. The most efficient design comes out to be Ranked set sampling compared with other designs. The Ranked set sampling with jackknife and bootstrap, gives minimum variance even with the smallest sample size (467. Two Phase sampling gave poor performance. Multi-stage sampling applied by HIES gave large variances especially if used with a single study variable.
Backtesting Portfolio Value-at-Risk with Estimated Portfolio Weights
Pei Pei
2010-01-01
This paper theoretically and empirically analyzes backtesting portfolio VaR with estimation risk in an intrinsically multivariate framework. For the first time in the literature, it takes into account the estimation of portfolio weights in forecasting portfolio VaR and its impact on backtesting. It shows that the estimation risk from estimating the portfolio weights as well as that from estimating the multivariate dynamic model of asset returns make the existing methods in a univariate framew...
Li, Feng; Sun, Kan; Lin, Diaozhu; Qi, Yiqin; Li, Yan; Yan, Li; Ren, Meng
2016-09-01
Menopause can affect the physiological timing system, which could result in circadian rhythm changes and development of napping habits. Whether longtime napping in postmenopausal women is associated with cardiovascular disease is, however, still debated. The present study aims to investigate this association. We conducted a population-based study in 4,616 postmenopausal Chinese women. Information on sleep duration was self-reported. The Framingham General Cardiovascular Risk Score was calculated and used to identify participants at high risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). Increased daytime napping hours were positively associated with cardiovascular disease risk factors in postmenopausal women, such as age, waist circumference, systolic blood pressure, triglycerides, fasting glucose, postload glucose, and hemoglobin A1C (all P for trend napping hours, and was 3.7%, 4.3%, and 6.9% in the no daytime napping group, the 0.1 to 1 hour group, and the more than 1 hour group, respectively (P for trend = 0.005). Compared with the no daytime napping group, postmenopausal women with daytime napping more than 1 hour had higher risk of CHD in both univariate (odds ratio 1.94, 95% CI, 1.29-2.95) and multivariate (odds ratio 1.61, 95% CI, 1.03-2.52) logistic regression analyses. No statistically significant association was detected between night sleeping hours and high risk of CHD in postmenopausal participants. Daytime napping is positively associated with estimated 10-year CHD risk in postmenopausal Chinese women.
A complex symbol signal-to-noise ratio estimator and its performance
Feria, Y.
1994-01-01
This article presents an algorithm for estimating the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of signals that contain data on a downconverted suppressed carrier or the first harmonic of a square-wave subcarrier. This algorithm can be used to determine the performance of the full-spectrum combiner for the Galileo S-band (2.2- to 2.3-GHz) mission by measuring the input and output symbol SNR. A performance analysis of the algorithm shows that the estimator can estimate the complex symbol SNR using 10,000 symbols at a true symbol SNR of -5 dB with a mean of -4.9985 dB and a standard deviation of 0.2454 dB, and these analytical results are checked by simulations of 100 runs with a mean of -5.06 dB and a standard deviation of 0.2506 dB.
Estimating Stocks Return with Decomposition of the Book-to-Market Ratio: Evidences from Bovespa
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Juliano Ribeiro de Almeida
2010-12-01
Full Text Available The book-to-market (BM ratio differs across stocks because to differences in expected cashflows and expected returns. The central hypothesis is that the evolution of BM, in terms of past changes in price and book equity, contains information about future cashflows that can be used to improve estimates of expected returns. This article used a database of Economática to extract a sample of non-financial companies shares listed on BOVESPA and test this hypothesis. The estimated regressions were performed monthly during the period July 1996 to June 2008. Both for large and mid caps as for small caps, the results do not favor this hypothesis and show that only the most recent BM is important to predict the assets returns. Furthermore, stock issues and repurchases are also related to future cashflows and it is expected to improve estimates of expected returns. However, the results provide no evidence favoring that.
Radiation risk estimation based on measurement error models
Masiuk, Sergii; Shklyar, Sergiy; Chepurny, Mykola; Likhtarov, Illya
2017-01-01
This monograph discusses statistics and risk estimates applied to radiation damage under the presence of measurement errors. The first part covers nonlinear measurement error models, with a particular emphasis on efficiency of regression parameter estimators. In the second part, risk estimation in models with measurement errors is considered. Efficiency of the methods presented is verified using data from radio-epidemiological studies.
Estimation of (n,f) Cross-Sections by Measuring Reaction Probability Ratios
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Plettner, C; Ai, H; Beausang, C W; Bernstein, L A; Ahle, L; Amro, H; Babilon, M; Burke, J T; Caggiano, J A; Casten, R F; Church, J A; Cooper, J R; Crider, B; Gurdal, G; Heinz, A; McCutchan, E A; Moody, K; Punyon, J A; Qian, J; Ressler, J J; Schiller, A; Williams, E; Younes, W
2005-04-21
Neutron-induced reaction cross-sections on unstable nuclei are inherently difficult to measure due to target activity and the low intensity of neutron beams. In an alternative approach, named the 'surrogate' technique, one measures the decay probability of the same compound nucleus produced using a stable beam on a stable target to estimate the neutron-induced reaction cross-section. As an extension of the surrogate method, in this paper they introduce a new technique of measuring the fission probabilities of two different compound nuclei as a ratio, which has the advantage of removing most of the systematic uncertainties. This method was benchmarked in this report by measuring the probability of deuteron-induced fission events in coincidence with protons, and forming the ratio P({sup 236}U(d,pf))/P({sup 238}U(d,pf)), which serves as a surrogate for the known cross-section ratio of {sup 236}U(n,f)/{sup 238}U(n,f). IN addition, the P({sup 238}U(d,d{prime}f))/P({sup 236}U(d,d{prime}f)) ratio as a surrogate for the {sup 237}U(n,f)/{sup 235}U(n,f) cross-section ratio was measured for the first time in an unprecedented range of excitation energies.
Estimating the Augmented Reflectance Ratio of the Ocean Surface When Whitecaps Appear
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Zhantang Xu
2015-10-01
Full Text Available The presence of foam influences the accuracy of satellite-derived water-leaving radiance. A model has been developed to estimate the augmented reflectance ratio (A(λ,U due to differences in the fraction of whitecap coverage (w on the ocean surface. A(λ,U can be calculated from the product of w and ρ(λ,U, where ρ(λ,U is the augmented ratio of the reflectance of background water (Rb(λ caused by the presence of whitecaps. Our results showed that the average A(400~700,U in the visible region was approximately 1.3% at U = 9 m∙s−1, 2.2% at U = 10 m∙s−1, 4.4% at U = 12 m∙s−1, 7.4% at U = 14 m∙s−1, 19% at U = 19 m∙s−1 and 37.9% at U = 24 m∙s−1, making it is necessary to consider the augmented reflectance ratio for remote sensing applications. By estimating remote sensing augmented reflectance using A(λ,U, it was found that the result was in good agreement with previous studies conducted in other areas with U from 9 to 12 m∙s−1. Since Rb(λ is temporally and spatially variable, our model considered the variation of Rb(λ, whereas existing models have assumed that Rb(λ is constant. Therefore, the proposed model is more suitable for estimating the augmented reflectance ratio due to whitecaps.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Kyoung Ae Kong
2016-04-01
Full Text Available Background: Smoking is a major modifiable risk factor for premature mortality. Estimating the smoking-attributable burden is important for public health policy. Typically, prevalence- or smoking impact ratio (SIR-based methods are used to derive estimates, but there is controversy over which method is more appropriate for country-specific estimates. We compared smoking-attributable fractions (SAFs of deaths estimated by these two methods. Methods: To estimate SAFs in 2012, we used several different prevalence-based approaches using no lag and 10- and 20-year lags. For the SIR-based method, we obtained lung cancer mortality rates from the Korean Cancer Prevention Study (KCPS and from the United States-based Cancer Prevention Study-II (CPS-II. The relative risks for the diseases associated with smoking were also obtained from these cohort studies. Results: For males, SAFs obtained using KCPS-derived SIRs were similar to those obtained using prevalence-based methods. For females, SAFs obtained using KCPS-derived SIRs were markedly greater than all prevalence-based SAFs. Differences in prevalence-based SAFs by time-lag period were minimal among males, but SAFs obtained using longer-lagged prevalence periods were significantly larger among females. SAFs obtained using CPS-II-based SIRs were lower than KCPS-based SAFs by >15 percentage points for most diseases, with the exceptions of lung cancer and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Conclusions: SAFs obtained using prevalence- and SIR-based methods were similar for males. However, neither prevalence-based nor SIR-based methods resulted in precise SAFs among females. The characteristics of the study population should be carefully considered when choosing a method to estimate SAF.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sotiropoulou, P; Koukou, V; Martini, N; Nikiforidis, G; Michail, C; Kandarakis, I; Fountos, G; Kounadi, E
2015-01-01
In this study an analytical approximation of dual-energy inverse functions is presented for the estimation of the calcium-to-phosphorous (Ca/P) mass ratio, which is a crucial parameter in bone health. Bone quality could be examined by the X-ray dual-energy method (XDEM), in terms of bone tissue material properties. Low- and high-energy, log- intensity measurements were combined by using a nonlinear function, to cancel out the soft tissue structures and generate the dual energy bone Ca/P mass ratio. The dual-energy simulated data were obtained using variable Ca and PO 4 thicknesses on a fixed total tissue thickness. The XDEM simulations were based on a bone phantom. Inverse fitting functions with least-squares estimation were used to obtain the fitting coefficients and to calculate the thickness of each material. The examined inverse mapping functions were linear, quadratic, and cubic. For every thickness, the nonlinear quadratic function provided the optimal fitting accuracy while requiring relative few terms. The dual-energy method, simulated in this work could be used to quantify bone Ca/P mass ratio with photon-counting detectors. (paper)
Estimating the Reference Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratio for the Australian Health System.
Edney, Laura Catherine; Haji Ali Afzali, Hossein; Cheng, Terence Chai; Karnon, Jonathan
2018-02-01
Spending on new healthcare technologies increases net population health when the benefits of a new technology are greater than their opportunity costs-the benefits of the best alternative use of the additional resources required to fund a new technology. The objective of this study was to estimate the expected incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained of increased government health expenditure as an empirical estimate of the average opportunity costs of decisions to fund new health technologies. The estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) is proposed as a reference ICER to inform value-based decision making in Australia. Empirical top-down approaches were used to estimate the QALY effects of government health expenditure with respect to reduced mortality and morbidity. Instrumental variable two-stage least-squares regression was used to estimate the elasticity of mortality-related QALY losses to a marginal change in government health expenditure. Regression analysis of longitudinal survey data representative of the general population was used to isolate the effects of increased government health expenditure on morbidity-related, QALY gains. Clinical judgement informed the duration of health-related quality-of-life improvement from the annual increase in government health expenditure. The base-case reference ICER was estimated at AUD28,033 per QALY gained. Parametric uncertainty associated with the estimation of mortality- and morbidity-related QALYs generated a 95% confidence interval AUD20,758-37,667. Recent public summary documents suggest new technologies with ICERs above AUD40,000 per QALY gained are recommended for public funding. The empirical reference ICER reported in this article suggests more QALYs could be gained if resources were allocated to other forms of health spending.
Influence of conservative corrections on parameter estimation for extreme-mass-ratio inspirals
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Huerta, E. A.; Gair, Jonathan R.
2009-01-01
We present an improved numerical kludge waveform model for circular, equatorial extreme-mass-ratio inspirals (EMRIs). The model is based on true Kerr geodesics, augmented by radiative self-force corrections derived from perturbative calculations, and in this paper for the first time we include conservative self-force corrections that we derive by comparison to post-Newtonian results. We present results of a Monte Carlo simulation of parameter estimation errors computed using the Fisher matrix and also assess the theoretical errors that would arise from omitting the conservative correction terms we include here. We present results for three different types of system, namely, the inspirals of black holes, neutron stars, or white dwarfs into a supermassive black hole (SMBH). The analysis shows that for a typical source (a 10M · compact object captured by a 10 6 M · SMBH at a signal to noise ratio of 30) we expect to determine the two masses to within a fractional error of ∼10 -4 , measure the spin parameter q to ∼10 -4.5 , and determine the location of the source on the sky and the spin orientation to within 10 -3 steradians. We show that, for this kludge model, omitting the conservative corrections leads to a small error over much of the parameter space, i.e., the ratio R of the theoretical model error to the Fisher matrix error is R<1 for all ten parameters in the model. For the few systems with larger errors typically R<3 and hence the conservative corrections can be marginally ignored. In addition, we use our model and first-order self-force results for Schwarzschild black holes to estimate the error that arises from omitting the second-order radiative piece of the self-force. This indicates that it may not be necessary to go beyond first order to recover accurate parameter estimates.
Fernando, Jeffry Bonar; Yoshioka, Mototaka; Ozawa, Jun
2016-08-01
A new method to estimate muscle fatigue quantitatively from surface electromyography (EMG) is proposed. The ratio of mean frequency (MNF) to average rectified value (ARV) is used as the index of muscle fatigue, and muscle fatigue is detected when MNF/ARV falls below a pre-determined or pre-calculated baseline. MNF/ARV gives larger distinction between fatigued muscle and non-fatigued muscle. Experiment results show the effectiveness of our method in estimating muscle fatigue more correctly compared to conventional methods. An early evaluation based on the initial value of MNF/ARV and the subjective time when the subjects start feeling the fatigue also indicates the possibility of calculating baseline from the initial value of MNF/ARV.
Estimation of Individual Cylinder Air-Fuel Ratio in Gasoline Engine with Output Delay
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Changhui Wang
2016-01-01
Full Text Available The estimation of the individual cylinder air-fuel ratio (AFR with a single universal exhaust gas oxygen (UEGO sensor installed in the exhaust pipe is an important issue for the cylinder-to-cylinder AFR balancing control, which can provide high-quality torque generation and reduce emissions in multicylinder engine. In this paper, the system dynamic for the gas in exhaust pipe including the gas mixing, gas transport, and sensor dynamics is described as an output delay system, and a new method using the output delay system observer is developed to estimate the individual cylinder AFR. With the AFR at confluence point augmented as a system state, an observer for the augmented discrete system with output delay is designed to estimate the AFR at confluence point. Using the gas mixing model, a method with the designed observer to estimate the individual cylinder AFR is presented. The validity of the proposed method is verified by the simulation results from a spark ignition gasoline engine from engine software enDYNA by Tesis.
Panel data nonparametric estimation of production risk and risk preferences
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Czekaj, Tomasz Gerard; Henningsen, Arne
approaches for obtaining firm-specific measures of risk attitudes. We found that Polish dairy farmers are risk averse regarding production risk and price uncertainty. According to our results, Polish dairy farmers perceive the production risk as being more significant than the risk related to output price......We apply nonparametric panel data kernel regression to investigate production risk, out-put price uncertainty, and risk attitudes of Polish dairy farms based on a firm-level unbalanced panel data set that covers the period 2004–2010. We compare different model specifications and different...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Alison J. Scott
2017-02-01
Full Text Available The complete error-in-variables-model (EVM framework, consisting of both design of experiments and parameter estimation stages, is applied to the terpolymerization of 2-acrylamido-2-methylpropane sulfonic acid (AMPS, M1, acrylamide (AAm, M2 and acrylic acid (AAc, M3. This water-soluble terpolymer has potential for applications in enhanced oil recovery, but the associated terpolymerization kinetic characteristics are largely unstudied. In the current paper, EVM is used to design optimal experiments (for the first time in the literature, and reactivity ratios are subsequently estimated based on both low and medium-high conversion data. The results from the medium-high conversion data are more precise than those from the low conversion data, and are therefore used next to predict the terpolymer composition trajectory over the full course of conversion. Good agreement is seen between experimental data and model predictions, which confirms the accuracy of the newly determined ternary reactivity ratios: r12 = 0.66, r21 = 0.82, r13 = 0.82, r31 = 0.61, r23 = 1.61, r32 = 0.25.
Akuli, Amitava; Pal, Abhra; Ghosh, Arunangshu; Bhattacharyya, Nabarun; Bandhopadhyya, Rajib; Tamuly, Pradip; Gogoi, Nagen
2011-09-01
Quality of black tea is generally assessed using organoleptic tests by professional tea tasters. They determine the quality of black tea based on its appearance (in dry condition and during liquor formation), aroma and taste. Variation in the above parameters is actually contributed by a number of chemical compounds like, Theaflavins (TF), Thearubigins (TR), Caffeine, Linalool, Geraniol etc. Among the above, TF and TR are the most important chemical compounds, which actually contribute to the formation of taste, colour and brightness in tea liquor. Estimation of TF and TR in black tea is generally done using a spectrophotometer instrument. But, the analysis technique undergoes a rigorous and time consuming effort for sample preparation; also the operation of costly spectrophotometer requires expert manpower. To overcome above problems an Electronic Vision System based on digital image processing technique has been developed. The system is faster, low cost, repeatable and can estimate the amount of TF and TR ratio for black tea liquor with accuracy. The data analysis is done using Principal Component Analysis (PCA), Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) and Multiple Discriminate Analysis (MDA). A correlation has been established between colour of tea liquor images and TF, TR ratio. This paper describes the newly developed E-Vision system, experimental methods, data analysis algorithms and finally, the performance of the E-Vision System as compared to the results of traditional spectrophotometer.
Efficacy of calf:cow ratios for estimating calf production of arctic caribou
Cameron, R.D.; Griffith, B.; Parrett, L.S.; White, R.G.
2013-01-01
Caribou (Rangifer tarandus granti) calf:cow ratios (CCR) computed from composition counts obtained on arctic calving grounds are biased estimators of net calf production (NCP, the product of parturition rate and early calf survival) for sexually-mature females. Sexually-immature 2-year-old females, which are indistinguishable from sexually-mature females without calves, are included in the denominator, thereby biasing the calculated ratio low. This underestimate increases with the proportion of 2-year-old females in the population. We estimated the magnitude of this error with deterministic simulations under three scenarios of calf and yearling annual survival (respectively: low, 60 and 70%; medium, 70 and 80%; high, 80 and 90%) for five levels of unbiased NCP: 20, 40, 60, 80, and 100%. We assumed a survival rate of 90% for both 2-year-old and mature females. For each NCP, we computed numbers of 2-year-old females surviving annually and increased the denominator of CCR accordingly. We then calculated a series of hypothetical “observed” CCRs, which stabilized during the last 6 years of the simulations, and documented the degree to which each 6-year mean CCR differed from the corresponding NCP. For the three calf and yearling survival scenarios, proportional underestimates of NCP by CCR ranged 0.046–0.156, 0.058–0.187, and 0.071–0.216, respectively. Unfortunately, because parturition and survival rates are typically variable (i.e., age distribution is unstable), the magnitude of the error is not predictable without substantial supporting information. We recommend maintaining a sufficient sample of known-age radiocollared females in each herd and implementing a regular relocation schedule during the calving period to obtain unbiased estimates of both parturition rate and NCP.
Waist-to-height ratio as index of cardiometabolic risk among the doctors
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Miliva Mozaffor
2017-12-01
Full Text Available The aim of this study was to see the cardiometabolic risk among doctors using waist-to-height ratio index as tool. Cardiometabolic risk is an umbrella term that includes all the risk factors of diabetes and cardiovascular disease. The study was conducted among 195 doctors. According to waist-to-height ratio index 167 (85.6% doctors had cardiometabolic risk. Waist-to-height ratio index was found good (area under the curve >0.5, sensitivity 88.1%, specificity 23.2%, positive predictive value 53.9%, and negative predictive value 66.7% for their predictive value of cardiometabolic risk. Age grouping was done and found that no age group was free from cardiometabolic risk.
Coelho, Flavio Codeço; Carvalho, Luiz Max De
2015-12-01
Quantifying the attack ratio of disease is key to epidemiological inference and public health planning. For multi-serotype pathogens, however, different levels of serotype-specific immunity make it difficult to assess the population at risk. In this paper we propose a Bayesian method for estimation of the attack ratio of an epidemic and the initial fraction of susceptibles using aggregated incidence data. We derive the probability distribution of the effective reproductive number, Rt, and use MCMC to obtain posterior distributions of the parameters of a single-strain SIR transmission model with time-varying force of infection. Our method is showcased in a data set consisting of 18 years of dengue incidence in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. We demonstrate that it is possible to learn about the initial fraction of susceptibles and the attack ratio even in the absence of serotype specific data. On the other hand, the information provided by this approach is limited, stressing the need for detailed serological surveys to characterise the distribution of serotype-specific immunity in the population.
Mattsson, Markus; Summala, Heikki
2010-02-01
Current European legislation allows the EU member states to restrict the maximum power output of motorcycles to 74 kW even though evidence supporting the limit is scarce and has produced mixed results-perhaps because motorcycle performance has been measured by engine displacement, not engine power, in most of the previous studies. This study investigates the relationship of motorcycle engine power and power-to-weight ratio to risk of fatal and nonfatal crashes in Finland. The fatality rate (number of fatal accidents/number of registered motorbikes) for riders of different ages riding bikes belonging to different power and power-to-weight ratio classes was examined using a comprehensive in-depth database. Data on nonfatal accidents were acquired from a Web questionnaire (N = 2708), which also served as a basis for estimating riders' annual mileage. Mileage data allowed the calculation of accident risk per kilometer ridden for bikes differing in power and power-to-weight ratio. The fatality risk per number of registered motorcycles and per kilometer ridden increases both with power and power-to-weight ratio, independently of rider's age. No relationship between performance and risk of a less severe crash was found. The pre-accident speed of the most powerful bikes was 20 km/h or more over the speed limit in a large proportion of the fatal accidents (odds ratio = 4.8 for > 75 kW motorbikes; odds ratio = 6.2 for > 0.3 kW/kg motorbikes). The risk of being involved in a fatal crash is higher among the riders of powerful motorcycles. However, it is not clear whether the results are related to the riding habits of the riders that choose the most powerful bikes available or whether the high risk is due to the properties of the bikes themselves. Therefore, further research is needed before considering legal limits on motorcycle performance.
Age estimation by pulp/tooth ratio in lower premolars by orthopantomography.
Cameriere, Roberto; De Luca, Stefano; Alemán, Inmaculada; Ferrante, Luigi; Cingolani, Mariano
2012-01-10
Accurate age estimation has always been a problem for forensic scientists, and apposition of secondary dentine is often used as an indicator of age. Since 2004, in order to examine patterns of secondary dentine apposition, Cameriere et al. have been extensively studying the pulp/tooth area ratio of the canines by panoramic and peri-apical X-ray images. The main aim of this paper is to examine the relationship between age and age-related changes in the pulp/tooth area ratio in monoradicular teeth, with the exception of canines, by orthopantomography. A total of 606 orthopantomograms of Spanish white Caucasian patients (289 women and 317 men), aged between 18 and 75 years and coming from Bilbao and Granada (Spain), was analysed. Regression analysis of age of monoradicular teeth indicated that the lower premolars were the most closely correlated with age. An ANCOVA did not show significant differences between men and women. Multiple regression analysis, with age as dependent variable and pulp/tooth area ratio as predictor, yielded several formulae. R(2) ranged from 0.69 to 0.75 for a single lower premolar tooth and from 0.79 to 0.86 for multiple lower premolar teeth. Depending on the available number of premolar teeth, the mean of the absolute values of residual standard error, at 95% confidence interval, ranged between 4.34 and 6.02 years, showing that the pulp/tooth area ratio is a useful variable for assessing age with reasonable accuracy. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
Wang, Zaimin; Hoy, Wendy E; Wang, Zhiqiang
2013-08-16
Albuminuria marks renal disease and cardiovascular risk. It was estimated to contribute 75% of the risk of all-cause natural death in one Aboriginal group. The urine albumin/creatinine ratio (ACR) is commonly used as an index of albuminuria. This study aims to examine the associations between demographic factors, anthropometric index, blood pressure, lipid-protein measurements and other biomarkers and albuminuria in a cross-sectional study in a high-risk Australian Aboriginal population. The models will be evaluated for albuminuria at or above the microalbuminuria threshold, and at or above the "overt albuminuria" threshold with the potential to distinguish associations they have in common and those that differ. This was a cross-sectional study of 598 adults aged 18-76 years. All participants were grouped into quartiles by age. Logistic regression models were used to explore the correlates of ACR categories. The significant correlates were systolic blood pressure (SBP), C-reactive protein (CRP), uric acid, diabetes, gamma-glutamyl transferase (GGT) (marginally significant, p=0.054) and serum albumin (negative association) for ACR 17+ (mg/g) for men and 25+ for women. Independent correlates were SBP, uric acid, diabetes, total cholesterol, alanine amino transferase (ALT), Cystatin C and serum albumin (negative association) for overt albuminuria; and SBP, CRP and serum albumin only for microalbuminuria. This is the most detailed modelling of pathologic albuminuria in this setting to date. The somewhat variable association with risk factors suggests that microalbuminuria and overt albuminuria might reflect different as well as shared phenomena.
Radiation risk and its estimation for nuclear facilities
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Krueger, F.W.
1979-01-01
The level of knowledge achieved in estimating risks due to the operation of nuclear facilities is discussed. In this connection it is analyzed to what extent risk estimates may be used for establishing requirements for facilities and measures of radiation protection and accident prevention. At present, estimates of risks are subject to great uncertainties. However, the results attainable already permit to discern the causes of possible accidents and to develop effective measures for preventing such accidents. For the time being (and maybe in principle) risk estimation is possible only with more or less arbitrary premises. Within the foreseeable future, cost-benefit comparisons cannot compensate for discretionary decisions in establishing requirements for measures of radiation protection and accident prevention. In preparing such decisions based on experience, expert opinions, political and socio-economic reflections and views, comparison of the risk of novel technologies with existing ones or accepted risks may be a useful means. (author)
Political risk in fair market value estimates
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gruy, H.J.; Hartsock, J.H.
1996-01-01
Political risk arises from unstable governments, commercial establishments and infrastructure as well as labor unrest. All these factors vary from country to country and from time to time. Banks and insurance companies quantify these risks, but they are reluctant to divulge their opinions for fear of alienating possible customers that have been assigned a high risk. An investment in a fixed property such as an oil and gas lease, concession or other mineral interest is subject to political risk. No one will deny that money to be received several years in the future has a greater value today in a country with a stable government, stable tax regime, a sound economy and reliable labor force than in a Third World country where a revolution is brewing. Even in stable countries, the risk of tax law changes, exorbitant environmental production regulations and cleanup costs may vary. How do these factors affect fair market value and how are these calculations made? An important consideration discussed in this paper is the treatment of capital investments
The estimation of small probabilities and risk assessment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kalbfleisch, J.D.; Lawless, J.F.; MacKay, R.J.
1982-01-01
The primary contribution of statistics to risk assessment is in the estimation of probabilities. Frequently the probabilities in question are small, and their estimation is particularly difficult. The authors consider three examples illustrating some problems inherent in the estimation of small probabilities
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mikko Niilo-Rämä
2014-06-01
Full Text Available A novel estimator for estimating the mean length of fibres is proposed for censored data observed in square shaped windows. Instead of observing the fibre lengths, we observe the ratio between the intensity estimates of minus-sampling and plus-sampling. It is well-known that both intensity estimators are biased. In the current work, we derive the ratio of these biases as a function of the mean length assuming a Boolean line segment model with exponentially distributed lengths and uniformly distributed directions. Having the observed ratio of the intensity estimators, the inverse of the derived function is suggested as a new estimator for the mean length. For this estimator, an approximation of its variance is derived. The accuracies of the approximations are evaluated by means of simulation experiments. The novel method is compared to other methods and applied to real-world industrial data from nanocellulose crystalline.
Estimation of Genetic Parameters of Kleiber Ratio and Growth Traits in Kurdish Sheep
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Davoud Ali Saghi
2016-11-01
Full Text Available Introduction Kurdish sheep breed is one of the most important native breeds of Iran. They are fat-tailed, large-sized, well adapted to the mountainous regions in northern Khorasan province and mainly raising for meat production under pastoral production system (28. Feed efficiency is a major component in the profitability of the small ruminant enterprise, because quality of range and pasture is low in poor environmental conditions in Iran. Growth rate and feed efficiency are two traits of great economic importance in sheep production and also Kleiber ratio has been suggested to be a useful indicator for these traits (2. There was no information regarding genetic parameters for growth traits in Kurdish sheep. Thus, the main objective of the present research was to estimate (covariance components and genetic parameters for pre- and post-weaning growth traits and Kleiber ratio in Kurdish sheep. Material and Methods In this study, the records of growth traits from 5144 lambs (from 161 rams and 1982 ewes were used. The data were collected during a 17-year period (1996–2013 in Kurdish sheep Breeding Station located in Shirvan city of northern Khorasan province. Traits investigated were average daily gain from birth to weaning (ADG0-3, average daily gain from weaning to six months of age (ADG3-6, average daily gain from six to nine months of age (ADG6-9, average daily gain from nine to twelve months of age (ADG9-12 and Kleiber ratios (KR defined as: KR1=ADG0-3/(BW30.75 KR2=ADG3-6/(BW60.75 KR3=ADG6-9/(BW90.75 KR4=ADG9-12/(BW120.75 Test of significance for the fixed effects to be included in the final functional model for each trait and calculation of least squares means was accomplished using GLM procedure of SAS software (24. The considered fixed effects were year of lambing (1996-2013, sex of lamb (male and female, type of birth (single and twin and age of ewe (1–7 years old. (Co variance components and genetic parameters were estimated applying
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
David Ardia
2016-03-01
Full Text Available We investigate the direct connection between the uncertainty related to estimated stable ratios of stock prices and risk and return of two pairs trading strategies: a conditional statistical arbitrage method and an implicit arbitrage one. A simulation-based Bayesian procedure is introduced for predicting stable stock price ratios, defined in a cointegration model. Using this class of models and the proposed inferential technique, we are able to connect estimation and model uncertainty with risk and return of stock trading. In terms of methodology, we show the effect that using an encompassing prior, which is shown to be equivalent to a Jeffreys’ prior, has under an orthogonal normalization for the selection of pairs of cointegrated stock prices and further, its effect for the estimation and prediction of the spread between cointegrated stock prices. We distinguish between models with a normal and Student t distribution since the latter typically provides a better description of daily changes of prices on financial markets. As an empirical application, stocks are used that are ingredients of the Dow Jones Composite Average index. The results show that normalization has little effect on the selection of pairs of cointegrated stocks on the basis of Bayes factors. However, the results stress the importance of the orthogonal normalization for the estimation and prediction of the spread—the deviation from the equilibrium relationship—which leads to better results in terms of profit per capital engagement and risk than using a standard linear normalization.
Estimation of extreme risk regions under multivariate regular variation
Cai, J.; Einmahl, J.H.J.; de Haan, L.F.M.
2011-01-01
When considering d possibly dependent random variables, one is often interested in extreme risk regions, with very small probability p. We consider risk regions of the form {z ∈ Rd : f (z) ≤ β}, where f is the joint density and β a small number. Estimation of such an extreme risk region is difficult
Probabilistic fuzzy systems in value-at-risk estimation
Almeida, R.J.; Kaymak, U.
2009-01-01
Value-at-risk (VaR) is a popular measure for quantifying the market risk that a financial institution faces into a single number. Owing to the complexity of financial markets, the risks associated with a portfolio varies over time. Consequently, advanced methods of VaR estimation use parametric
Metabolic Risk Susceptibility in Men Is Partially Related to Adiponectin/Leptin Ratio
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Gloria Lena Vega
2013-01-01
Full Text Available Background. High adiponectin/leptin ratio may be protective from metabolic risks imparted by high triglyceride, low HDL, and insulin resistance. Methods. This cross-sectional study examines plasma adipokine levels in 428 adult men who were subgrouped according to low (<6.5 μg/mLand high (≥6.5 μg/mLadiponectin levels or a low or high ratio of adiponectin/leptin. Results. Men with high adiponectin/leptin ratio had lower plasma triglyceride and higher HDL cholesterol than those with low ratio. Similarly, those with high adiponectin/leptin ratio had lower TG/HDL cholesterol ratio and HOMA2-IR than those with low ratio. In contrast, levels of adiponectin or the ratio of adiponectin/leptin did not associate with systolic blood pressure. But the ratio of adiponectin/leptin decreased progressively with the increase in the number of risk factors for metabolic syndrome. Conclusion. Adipokine levels may reflect adipose tissue triglyceride storage capacity and insulin sensitivity. Leptin is an index of fat mass, and adiponectin is a biomarker of triglyceride metabolism and insulin sensitivity. Men with high adiponectin/leptin ratios have better triglyceride profile and insulin sensitivity than men with a low ratio regardless of waist girth.
Development of cancer risk estimates from epidemiologic studies
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Webster, E.W.
1983-01-01
Radiation risk estimates may be made for an increase in mortality from, or for an increase in incidence of, particular types of disease. For both endpoints, two numerical systems of risk expression are used: the absolute risk system (usually the excess deaths or cases per million persons per year per rad), and the relative risk system (usually excess deaths or cases per year per rad expressed as a percentage of those normally expected). Risks may be calculated for specific age groups or for a general population. An alternative in both risk systems is the estimation of cumulative of lifetime risk rather than annual risk (e.g. in excess deaths per million per rad over a specified long period including the remainder of lifespan). The derivation of both absolute and relative risks is illustrated by examples. The effects on risk estimates of latent period, follow-up time, age at exposure and age standardization within dose groups are illustrated. The dependence of the projected cumulative (lifetime) risk on the adoption of a constant absolute risk or constant relative risk is noted. The use of life-table data in the adjustment of cumulative risk for normal mortality following single or annual doses is briefly discussed
Insulin Sensitivity and Mortality Risk Estimation in Patients with Type ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
2016-07-15
Jul 15, 2016 ... density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL), triglycerides (TG), high‑density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL), urinary albumin‑to‑creatinine ratio ... the mortality risk scores in patients with T2DM and its relationship with insulin resistance.
A direct method for estimating the alpha/beta ratio from quantitative dose-response data
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Stuschke, M.
1989-01-01
A one-step optimization method based on a least squares fit of the linear quadratic model to quantitative tissue response data after fractionated irradiation is proposed. Suitable end-points that can be analysed by this method are growth delay, host survival and quantitative biochemical or clinical laboratory data. The functional dependence between the transformed dose and the measured response is approximated by a polynomial. The method allows for the estimation of the alpha/beta ratio and its confidence limits from all observed responses of the different fractionation schedules. Censored data can be included in the analysis. A method to test the appropriateness of the fit is presented. A computer simulation illustrates the method and its accuracy as examplified by the growth delay end point. A comparison with a fit of the linear quadratic model to interpolated isoeffect doses shows the advantages of the direct method. (orig./HP) [de
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Beyene Joseph
2005-10-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background The location quotient (LQ ratio, a measure designed to quantify and benchmark the degree of relative concentration of an activity in the analysis of area localization, has received considerable attention in the geographic and economics literature. This index can also naturally be applied in the context of population health to quantify and compare health outcomes across spatial domains. However, one commonly observed limitation of LQ is its widespread use as only a point estimate without an accompanying confidence interval. Methods In this paper we present statistical methods that can be used to construct confidence intervals for location quotients. The delta and Fieller's methods are generic approaches for a ratio parameter and the generalized linear modelling framework is a useful re-parameterization particularly helpful for generating profile-likelihood based confidence intervals for the location quotient. A simulation experiment is carried out to assess the performance of each of the analytic approaches and a health utilization data set is used for illustration. Results Both the simulation results as well as the findings from the empirical data show that the different analytical methods produce very similar confidence limits for location quotients. When incidence of outcome is not rare and sample sizes are large, the confidence limits are almost indistinguishable. The confidence limits from the generalized linear model approach might be preferable in small sample situations. Conclusion LQ is a useful measure which allows quantification and comparison of health and other outcomes across defined geographical regions. It is a very simple index to compute and has a straightforward interpretation. Reporting this estimate with appropriate confidence limits using methods presented in this paper will make the measure particularly attractive for policy and decision makers.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Charonko, John J; Vlachos, Pavlos P
2013-01-01
Numerous studies have established firmly that particle image velocimetry (PIV) is a robust method for non-invasive, quantitative measurements of fluid velocity, and that when carefully conducted, typical measurements can accurately detect displacements in digital images with a resolution well below a single pixel (in some cases well below a hundredth of a pixel). However, to date, these estimates have only been able to provide guidance on the expected error for an average measurement under specific image quality and flow conditions. This paper demonstrates a new method for estimating the uncertainty bounds to within a given confidence interval for a specific, individual measurement. Here, cross-correlation peak ratio, the ratio of primary to secondary peak height, is shown to correlate strongly with the range of observed error values for a given measurement, regardless of flow condition or image quality. This relationship is significantly stronger for phase-only generalized cross-correlation PIV processing, while the standard correlation approach showed weaker performance. Using an analytical model of the relationship derived from synthetic data sets, the uncertainty bounds at a 95% confidence interval are then computed for several artificial and experimental flow fields, and the resulting errors are shown to match closely to the predicted uncertainties. While this method stops short of being able to predict the true error for a given measurement, knowledge of the uncertainty level for a PIV experiment should provide great benefits when applying the results of PIV analysis to engineering design studies and computational fluid dynamics validation efforts. Moreover, this approach is exceptionally simple to implement and requires negligible additional computational cost. (paper)
A new approach to estimate nuclide ratios from measurements with activities close to background
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kirchner, G.; Steiner, M.; Zaehringer, M.
2009-01-01
Measurements of low-level radioactivity often give results of the order of the detection limit. For many applications, interest is not only in estimating activity concentrations of a single radioactive isotope, but focuses on multi-isotope analyses, which often enable inference on the source of the activity detected (e.g. from activity ratios). Obviously, such conclusions become questionable if the measurement merely gives a detection limit for a specific isotope. This is particularly relevant if the presence of an isotope, which shows a low signal only (e.g. due to a short half-life or a small transition probability), is crucial for gaining the information of interest. This paper discusses a new approach which has the potential to solve these problems. Using Bayesian statistics, a method is presented which allows statistical inference on nuclide ratios taking into account both prior knowledge and all information collected from the measurements. It is shown that our method allows quantitative conclusion to be drawn if counts of single isotopes are low or become even negative after background subtraction. Differences to the traditional statistical approach of specifying decision thresholds or detection limits are highlighted. Application of this new approach is illustrated by a number of examples of environmental low-level radioactivity measurements. The capabilities of our approach for spectrum interpretation and source identification are demonstrated with real spectra from air filters, sewage sludge and soil samples.
Estimating back to front ratio of wire screen for measurement of thoron decay products
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Koli, Amruta; Khandare, Pallavi; Joshi, Manish; Mariam; Khan, Arshad; Sapra, B.K.
2016-01-01
Wire screens are widely used for measuring the fine fraction of radon/thoron decay products. Their capture efficiencies are generally defined at low aerosol concentration conditions as well as at low sampling flow rates. Effect of changes in sampling flow rate and aerosol concentration on wire screen capture efficiencies and counting correction factor has been studied in this work. Controlled experiments have been conducted using two different mesh sizes at two different aerosol concentration conditions. Experimental results were compared with the existing theories for capture efficiencies of wire screens given by Cheng and Yeh (1980) and Alonso et al. (2001); and semi empirical relation for the front to total ratio given by Solomon and Ren (1992). Theoretical predictions have been found to be relatively close to the experimental findings for moderate aerosol conditions but disagreement was observed in case of high aerosol concentration. The possible reasons for these differences have been discussed in this work. - Highlights: • Effect of Fiber Reynolds number on capture efficiency and back to front ratio of wire screen. • Experiments with Thoron decay products at moderate and elevated aerosol concentrations. • Comparison with theoretical estimates. • Fair agreement observed for moderate aerosol concentration.
Suzuki, Toru; Fujimoto, Hiroshi
In slip ratio control systems, it is necessary to detect the vehicle velocity in order to obtain the slip ratio. However, it is very difficult to measure this velocity directly. We have proposed slip ratio estimation and control methods that do not require the vehicle velocity with acceleration. In this paper, the slip ratio estimation and control methods are proposed without detecting the vehicle velocity and acceleration when it is decelerating. We carried out simulations and experiments by using an electric vehicle to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.
Estimating Fire Risks at Industrial Nuclear Facilities
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Coutts, D.A.
1999-01-01
The Savannah River Site (SRS) has a wide variety of nuclear production facilities that include chemical processing facilities, machine shops, production reactors, and laboratories. Current safety documentation must be maintained for the nuclear facilities at SRS. Fire Risk Analyses (FRAs) are used to support the safety documentation basis. These FRAs present the frequency that specified radiological and chemical consequences will be exceeded. The consequence values are based on mechanistic models assuming specific fire protection features fail to function as designed
Risk estimation for LCF crack initiation
Schmitz, Sebastian; Rollmann, Georg; Gottschalk, Hanno; Krause, Rolf
2013-01-01
An accurate risk assessment for fatigue damage is of vital importance for the design and service of today's turbomachinery components. We present an approach for quantifying the probability of crack initiation due to surface driven low-cycle fatigue (LCF). This approach is based on the theory of failure-time processes and takes inhomogeneous stress fields and size effects into account. The method has been implemented as a finite-element postprocessor which uses quadrature formulae of higher o...
Epidemiological data and radiation risk estimates
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cardis, E.
2002-01-01
The results of several major epidemiology studies on populations with particular exposure to ionizing radiation should become available during the first years of the 21. century. These studies are expected to provide answers to a number of questions concerning public health and radiation protection. Most of the populations concerned were accidentally exposed to radiation in ex-USSR or elsewhere or in a nuclear industrial context. The results will complete and test information on risk coming from studies among survivors of the Hiroshima and Nagasaki atomic bombs, particularly studies on the effects of low dose exposure and prolonged low-dose exposure, of different types of radiation, and environmental and host-related factors which could modify the risk of radiation-induced effects. These studies are thus important to assess the currently accepted scientific evidence on radiation protection for workers and the general population. In addition, supplementary information on radiation protection could be provided by formal comparisons and analyses combining data from populations with different types of exposure. Finally, in order to provide pertinent information for public health and radiation protection, future epidemiology studies should be targeted and designed to answer specific questions, concerning, for example, the risk for specific populations (children, patients, people with genetic predisposition). An integrated approach, combining epidemiology and studies on the mechanisms of radiation induction should provide particularly pertinent information. (author)
Estimation of Fine and Oversize Particle Ratio in a Heterogeneous Compound with Acoustic Emissions
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ejay Nsugbe
2018-03-01
Full Text Available The final phase of powder production typically involves a mixing process where all of the particles are combined and agglomerated with a binder to form a single compound. The traditional means of inspecting the physical properties of the final product involves an inspection of the particle sizes using an offline sieving and weighing process. The main downside of this technique, in addition to being an offline-only measurement procedure, is its inability to characterise large agglomerates of powders due to sieve blockage. This work assesses the feasibility of a real-time monitoring approach using a benchtop test rig and a prototype acoustic-based measurement approach to provide information that can be correlated to product quality and provide the opportunity for future process optimisation. Acoustic emission (AE was chosen as the sensing method due to its low cost, simple setup process, and ease of implementation. The performance of the proposed method was assessed in a series of experiments where the offline quality check results were compared to the AE-based real-time estimations using data acquired from a benchtop powder free flow rig. A designed time domain based signal processing method was used to extract particle size information from the acquired AE signal and the results show that this technique is capable of estimating the required ratio in the washing powder compound with an average absolute error of 6%.
Graphs to estimate an individualized risk of breast cancer.
Benichou, J; Gail, M H; Mulvihill, J J
1996-01-01
Clinicians who counsel women about their risk for developing breast cancer need a rapid method to estimate individualized risk (absolute risk), as well as the confidence limits around that point. The Breast Cancer Detection Demonstration Project (BCDDP) model (sometimes called the Gail model) assumes no genetic model and simultaneously incorporates five risk factors, but involves cumbersome calculations and interpolations. This report provides graphs to estimate the absolute risk of breast cancer from the BCDDP model. The BCDDP recruited 280,000 women from 1973 to 1980 who were monitored for 5 years. From this cohort, 2,852 white women developed breast cancer and 3,146 controls were selected, all with complete risk-factor information. The BCDDP model, previously developed from these data, was used to prepare graphs that relate a specific summary relative-risk estimate to the absolute risk of developing breast cancer over intervals of 10, 20, and 30 years. Once a summary relative risk is calculated, the appropriate graph is chosen that shows the 10-, 20-, or 30-year absolute risk of developing breast cancer. A separate graph gives the 95% confidence limits around the point estimate of absolute risk. Once a clinician rules out a single gene trait that predisposes to breast cancer and elicits information on age and four risk factors, the tables and figures permit an estimation of a women's absolute risk of developing breast cancer in the next three decades. These results are intended to be applied to women who undergo regular screening. They should be used only in a formal counseling program to maximize a woman's understanding of the estimates and the proper use of them.
Genetic parameter estimates for weaning weight and Kleiber ratio in goats
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
China Supakorn
2012-04-01
Full Text Available The research was conducted to evaluate the factors affecting on weaning weight (WW and Kleiber ratio (KR and toestimate genetic parameters for two traits in goats. The fixed factors affecting both traits indicated that year-season of birth,sex, birth type and regression of the Thai Native (TN, Boer (BO and Saanen (SA influenced on WW and KR (P<0.05. Malesin this population were heavier (P<0.05 than females. Weaning weights and KR of single kid were significantly higher (P<0.05 than other birth rearing types. Bivariate analysis of three models (Model 1: without maternal genetic effect, Model 2:with maternal genetic effect and am = 0, and Model 3: with maternal genetic effect and am 0 were used to estimate geneticparameters for this research. Estimated direct heritabilities from all models were 0.26 to 0.38 for WW, and 0.22 to 0.35 for KR.Estimated maternal heritabilities from Model 2 and 3 were 0.09 and 0.12 for WW and 0.08 and 0.11 for KR, respectively. Thedirect genetic and phenotypic correlations between WW and KR were positive and moderate values. Maternal genetic correlationsbetween them were positive and of low values. An antagonistic direct-maternal correlations from Model 3 withintraits and between traits indicated that offspring of does with superior maternal abilities probably may provide an inferiordirect genetic effect in the same trait and between traits. It was therefore possible to rapidly improve WW and KR in thisgoat population through selection, while the adverse effects of direct-maternal correlation within and between traits shouldbe considered. The best fit model would be a model including maternal genetic effect without a direct-maternal genetic covariance.
Assessment of Methods for Estimating Risk to Birds from ...
The U.S. EPA Ecological Risk Assessment Support Center (ERASC) announced the release of the final report entitled, Assessment of Methods for Estimating Risk to Birds from Ingestion of Contaminated Grit Particles. This report evaluates approaches for estimating the probability of ingestion by birds of contaminated particles such as pesticide granules or lead particles (i.e. shot or bullet fragments). In addition, it presents an approach for using this information to estimate the risk of mortality to birds from ingestion of lead particles. Response to ERASC Request #16
Minimax estimation of qubit states with Bures risk
Acharya, Anirudh; Guţă, Mădălin
2018-04-01
The central problem of quantum statistics is to devise measurement schemes for the estimation of an unknown state, given an ensemble of n independent identically prepared systems. For locally quadratic loss functions, the risk of standard procedures has the usual scaling of 1/n. However, it has been noticed that for fidelity based metrics such as the Bures distance, the risk of conventional (non-adaptive) qubit tomography schemes scales as 1/\\sqrt{n} for states close to the boundary of the Bloch sphere. Several proposed estimators appear to improve this scaling, and our goal is to analyse the problem from the perspective of the maximum risk over all states. We propose qubit estimation strategies based on separate adaptive measurements, and collective measurements, that achieve 1/n scalings for the maximum Bures risk. The estimator involving local measurements uses a fixed fraction of the available resource n to estimate the Bloch vector direction; the length of the Bloch vector is then estimated from the remaining copies by measuring in the estimator eigenbasis. The estimator based on collective measurements uses local asymptotic normality techniques which allows us to derive upper and lower bounds to its maximum Bures risk. We also discuss how to construct a minimax optimal estimator in this setup. Finally, we consider quantum relative entropy and show that the risk of the estimator based on collective measurements achieves a rate O(n-1log n) under this loss function. Furthermore, we show that no estimator can achieve faster rates, in particular the ‘standard’ rate n ‑1.
Estimating and comparing risks in the future
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Llewellyn, Gareth
1998-01-01
The current position of power generation in UK is balanced. Recently 16 advanced gas cooled reactors are in operation. Privatisation of most power generation plants is done. Some trialing of environmental premia is performed. Environmental management is very strong. Nuclear power status in the UK is as follows: 16 Advanced gas cooled reactors, 1 Pressurised water reactor, Nuclear Electric/Scottish Nuclear in commercial operation; out of 18 Magnox reactors in operation 3 are decommissioned, 8 are due to stop operating before 2000. Non-nuclear fuel used are coal, oil, gas, hydropower. Besides carbon dioxide emissions emerging issue is rad waste disposal. This presentation deals with the strategic risk assessment in power generation sector
A balanced hazard ratio for risk group evaluation from survival data.
Branders, Samuel; Dupont, Pierre
2015-07-30
Common clinical studies assess the quality of prognostic factors, such as gene expression signatures, clinical variables or environmental factors, and cluster patients into various risk groups. Typical examples include cancer clinical trials where patients are clustered into high or low risk groups. Whenever applied to survival data analysis, such groups are intended to represent patients with similar survival odds and to select the most appropriate therapy accordingly. The relevance of such risk groups, and of the related prognostic factors, is typically assessed through the computation of a hazard ratio. We first stress three limitations of assessing risk groups through the hazard ratio: (1) it may promote the definition of arbitrarily unbalanced risk groups; (2) an apparently optimal group hazard ratio can be largely inconsistent with the p-value commonly associated to it; and (3) some marginal changes between risk group proportions may lead to highly different hazard ratio values. Those issues could lead to inappropriate comparisons between various prognostic factors. Next, we propose the balanced hazard ratio to solve those issues. This new performance metric keeps an intuitive interpretation and is as simple to compute. We also show how the balanced hazard ratio leads to a natural cut-off choice to define risk groups from continuous risk scores. The proposed methodology is validated through controlled experiments for which a prescribed cut-off value is defined by design. Further results are also reported on several cancer prognosis studies, and the proposed methodology could be applied more generally to assess the quality of any prognostic markers. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Willey, Joshua; Gardener, Hannah; Cespedes, Sandino; Cheung, Ying K; Sacco, Ralph L; Elkind, Mitchell S V
2017-11-01
There is growing evidence that increased dietary sodium (Na) intake increases the risk of vascular diseases, including stroke, at least in part via an increase in blood pressure. Higher dietary potassium (K), seen with increased intake of fruits and vegetables, is associated with lower blood pressure. The goal of this study was to determine the association of a dietary Na:K with risk of stroke in a multiethnic urban population. Stroke-free participants from the Northern Manhattan Study, a population-based cohort study of stroke incidence, were followed-up for incident stroke. Baseline food frequency questionnaires were analyzed for Na and K intake. We estimated the hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals for the association of Na:K with incident total stroke using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models. Among 2570 participants with dietary data (mean age, 69±10 years; 64% women; 21% white; 55% Hispanic; 24% black), the mean Na:K ratio was 1.22±0.43. Over a mean follow-up of 12 years, there were 274 strokes. In adjusted models, a higher Na:K ratio was associated with increased risk for stroke (hazard ratio, 1.6; 95% confidence interval, 1.2-2.1) and specifically ischemic stroke (hazard ratio, 1.6; 95% confidence interval, 1.2-2.1). Na:K intake is an independent predictor of stroke risk. Further studies are required to understand the joint effect of Na and K intake on risk of cardiovascular disease. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.
Ratio K: a New Way of Metering and Evaluating the Risk and Return of Stock Investment
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
朱淑珍; 朱静怡
2003-01-01
Although widely used, both the Markowitz model and VAR (Value at Risk) model have some limitations in evaluating the risk and return of stock investnent.By the analysis of the conceptions of risk and return,together with the three hypotheses of technological analysis, a novelty model of metering and evaluating the risk and return of stock investnent is established.The major indicator of this model , risk-return ratio K, combines the characteristic indicators of risk and return. Regardless of the form of the risk-return probability density functions, this indicator K can always reflect the risk-return performances of the invested stocks clearly and accurately. How to use the model to make optimum investment and how to make portfolio combined with clustering analysis is also explained.
Schonberg, Mara A.; Li, Vicky W.; Eliassen, A. Heather; Davis, Roger B.; LaCroix, Andrea Z.; McCarthy, Ellen P.; Rosner, Bernard A.; Chlebowski, Rowan T.; Hankinson, Susan E.; Marcantonio, Edward R.; Ngo, Long H.
2016-01-01
Purpose Accurate risk assessment is necessary for decision-making around breast cancer prevention. We aimed to develop a breast cancer prediction model for postmenopausal women that would take into account their individualized competing risk of non-breast cancer death. Methods We included 73,066 women who completed the 2004 Nurses’ Health Study (NHS) questionnaire (all ≥57 years) and followed participants until May 2014. We considered 17 breast cancer risk factors (health behaviors, demographics, family history, reproductive factors), 7 risk factors for non-breast cancer death (comorbidities, functional dependency), and mammography use. We used competing risk regression to identify factors independently associated with breast cancer. We validated the final model by examining calibration (expected-to-observed ratio of breast cancer incidence, E/O) and discrimination (c-statistic) using 74,887 subjects from the Women’s Health Initiative Extension Study (WHI-ES; all were ≥55 years and followed for 5 years). Results Within 5 years, 1.8% of NHS participants were diagnosed with breast cancer (vs. 2.0% in WHI-ES, p=0.02) and 6.6% experienced non-breast cancer death (vs. 5.2% in WHI-ES, prisk factors, 5 comorbidities, functional dependency, and mammography use. The model’s c-statistic was 0.61 (95% CI [0.60–0.63]) in NHS and 0.57 (0.55–0.58) in WHI-ES. On average our model under predicted breast cancer in WHI-ES (E/O 0.92 [0.88–0.97]). Conclusions We developed a novel prediction model that factors in postmenopausal women’s individualized competing risks of non-breast cancer death when estimating breast cancer risk. PMID:27770283
An interim UK response to revised risk estimates
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Beaver, P.F.; Bines, W.P.
1992-01-01
This paper describes the legal framework in place when the revised risk estimates were announced by the International Commission for Radiological Protection (ICRP) in 1987 and how an addition to that framework enabled the revised risk estimates to be taken into account when making decisions about radiation protection practice both at plant and individual worker level. It is suggested that this a may be an early example of the use of a constraint applied generically. (author)
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Amir Ghanifar
2016-06-01
Full Text Available Introduction The concentration of substances, including urea, creatinine, and uric acid, can be used as an index to measure toxic uremic solutes in the blood during dialysis and interdialytic intervals. The on-line monitoring of toxin concentration allows for the clearance measurement of some low-molecular-weight solutes at any time during hemodialysis.The aim of this study was to determine the optimal wavelength for estimating the changes in urea, creatinine, and uric acid in dialysate, using ultraviolet (UV spectroscopy. Materials and Methods In this study, nine uremic patients were investigated, using on-line spectrophotometry. The on-line absorption measurements (UV radiation were performed with a spectrophotometer module, connected to the fluid outlet of the dialysis machine. Dialysate samples were obtained and analyzed, using standard biochemical methods. Optimal wavelengths for both creatinine and uric acid were selected by using a combination of genetic algorithms (GAs, i.e., GA-partial least squares (GA-PLS and interval partial least squares (iPLS. Results The Artifitial Neural Network (ANN sensitivity analysis determined the wavelengths of the UV band most suitable for estimating the concentration of creatinine and uric acid. The two optimal wavelengths were 242 and 252 nm for creatinine and 295 and 298 nm for uric acid. Conclusion It can be concluded that the reduction ratio of creatinine and uric acid (dialysis efficiency could be continuously monitored during hemodialysis by UV spectroscopy.Compared to the conventional method, which is particularly sensitive to the sampling technique and involves post-dialysis blood sampling, iterative measurements throughout the dialysis session can yield more reliable data.
ICRP risk estimates - an alternative view
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Morgan, K.Z.
1987-01-01
This criticism of the worth of the ICRP Main Commission spans 60 years, reviewed by a member of the Commission. Beginning in 1960 two serious radiation exposure problems (occupational exposure in uranium mines and population exposure from testing of nuclear weapons) came to their attention. One might have expected ICRP to be the first to try to reduce these exposures but it was conspicuous by its silence. In 1958 ICRP set limits of exposure for radiation workers and member of the public. Nineteen years later (1977) when it was realized that the risk of radiation induced cancer was ten to thirty times what it was perceived to be in 1958, ICRP might have been expected to recommend a major reduction in permissible exposure levels, but to the dismay of some it increased them. It was also a great disappointment when in 1977, levels of MPC of radionuclides in air, water and food were increased for a large fraction of the more dangerous radionuclides. The reactor accident at Chernobyl calls for a number of new ICRP recommendations. When can we expect them? (author)
Risk ratios for use in establishing dose limits for occupational exposure to radiation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Metcalf, P.E.; Winkler, B.C.
1980-01-01
Dose limits for occupational exposure to radiation may be established by comparing the associated mortality risk with apparently accepted levels of industrial mortality risk due to conventional hazards. Average levels of industrial mortality risk rates are frequently quoted and used in such comparisons. However, within particular occupations or industries certain groups of workers will be exposed to higher levels of risk than the average, again an apparently accepted situation. A study has been made of the ratios of maximum to average industrial mortality risk currently experienced in some South African industries. Such a ratio may be used to assess the acceptability of maximum individual-to-average exposures in particular groups of exposed individuals. (author)
Marill, Keith A; Chang, Yuchiao; Wong, Kim F; Friedman, Ari B
2017-08-01
Objectives Assessing high-sensitivity tests for mortal illness is crucial in emergency and critical care medicine. Estimating the 95% confidence interval (CI) of the likelihood ratio (LR) can be challenging when sample sensitivity is 100%. We aimed to develop, compare, and automate a bootstrapping method to estimate the negative LR CI when sample sensitivity is 100%. Methods The lowest population sensitivity that is most likely to yield sample sensitivity 100% is located using the binomial distribution. Random binomial samples generated using this population sensitivity are then used in the LR bootstrap. A free R program, "bootLR," automates the process. Extensive simulations were performed to determine how often the LR bootstrap and comparator method 95% CIs cover the true population negative LR value. Finally, the 95% CI was compared for theoretical sample sizes and sensitivities approaching and including 100% using: (1) a technique of individual extremes, (2) SAS software based on the technique of Gart and Nam, (3) the Score CI (as implemented in the StatXact, SAS, and R PropCI package), and (4) the bootstrapping technique. Results The bootstrapping approach demonstrates appropriate coverage of the nominal 95% CI over a spectrum of populations and sample sizes. Considering a study of sample size 200 with 100 patients with disease, and specificity 60%, the lowest population sensitivity with median sample sensitivity 100% is 99.31%. When all 100 patients with disease test positive, the negative LR 95% CIs are: individual extremes technique (0,0.073), StatXact (0,0.064), SAS Score method (0,0.057), R PropCI (0,0.062), and bootstrap (0,0.048). Similar trends were observed for other sample sizes. Conclusions When study samples demonstrate 100% sensitivity, available methods may yield inappropriately wide negative LR CIs. An alternative bootstrapping approach and accompanying free open-source R package were developed to yield realistic estimates easily. This
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Overgaard, J.
1984-01-01
An experimental model composed of a C 3 H mammary carcinoma and its surrounding skin has been exposed to simultaneous radiation and hyperthermia given with different combinations of the heating time and temperature. Based on the thermal enhancement ratio (TER) values obtained in the temperature range 41.5 to 43.5 0 C, a linear relationship between TER and the heating time was achieved at each temperature. The slopes of the curves drawn at each temperature were found to have a log-linear relationship with the treatment temperature. With these relationships it was possible to make a formula expressing the TER as a function of treatment temperature and time. This formula gives a crude but probably acceptable estimate of the TER following a single simultaneous radiation and heat treatment. Although subject to several limitations, the formula represents an attempt to describe a heat dose concept for the radiosensitizing effect of hyperthermia. This may be useful to establish the tolerance level of a given radiation treatment when combined with hyperthermia. (Auth.)
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Cheng-Hong Yang
2012-07-01
Full Text Available Cancers often involve the synergistic effects of gene–gene interactions, but identifying these interactions remains challenging. Here, we present an odds ratio-based genetic algorithm (OR-GA that is able to solve the problems associated with the simultaneous analysis of multiple independent single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs that are associated with oral cancer. The SNP interactions between four SNPs—namely rs1799782, rs2040639, rs861539, rs2075685, and belonging to four genes (XRCC1, XRCC2, XRCC3, and XRCC4—were tested in this study, respectively. The GA decomposes the SNPs sets into different SNP combinations with their corresponding genotypes (called SNP barcodes. The GA can effectively identify a specific SNP barcode that has an optimized fitness value and uses this to calculate the difference between the case and control groups. The SNP barcodes with a low fitness value are naturally removed from the population. Using two to four SNPs, the best SNP barcodes with maximum differences in occurrence between the case and control groups were generated by GA algorithm. Subsequently, the OR provides a quantitative measure of the multiple SNP synergies between the oral cancer and control groups by calculating the risk related to the best SNP barcodes and others. When these were compared to their corresponding non-SNP barcodes, the estimated ORs for oral cancer were found to be great than 1 [approx. 1.72–2.23; confidence intervals (CIs: 0.94–5.30, p < 0.03–0.07] for various specific SNP barcodes with two to four SNPs. In conclusion, the proposed OR-GA method successfully generates SNP barcodes, which allow oral cancer risk to be evaluated and in the process the OR-GA method identifies possible SNP–SNP interactions.
Security Events and Vulnerability Data for Cybersecurity Risk Estimation.
Allodi, Luca; Massacci, Fabio
2017-08-01
Current industry standards for estimating cybersecurity risk are based on qualitative risk matrices as opposed to quantitative risk estimates. In contrast, risk assessment in most other industry sectors aims at deriving quantitative risk estimations (e.g., Basel II in Finance). This article presents a model and methodology to leverage on the large amount of data available from the IT infrastructure of an organization's security operation center to quantitatively estimate the probability of attack. Our methodology specifically addresses untargeted attacks delivered by automatic tools that make up the vast majority of attacks in the wild against users and organizations. We consider two-stage attacks whereby the attacker first breaches an Internet-facing system, and then escalates the attack to internal systems by exploiting local vulnerabilities in the target. Our methodology factors in the power of the attacker as the number of "weaponized" vulnerabilities he/she can exploit, and can be adjusted to match the risk appetite of the organization. We illustrate our methodology by using data from a large financial institution, and discuss the significant mismatch between traditional qualitative risk assessments and our quantitative approach. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.
These model-based estimates use two surveys, the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) and the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS). The two surveys are combined using novel statistical methodology.
Steinmann, Peter; Keiser, Jennifer; Bos, Robert; Tanner, Marcel; Utzinger, Jürg
2006-07-01
An estimated 779 million people are at risk of schistosomiasis, of whom 106 million (13.6%) live in irrigation schemes or in close proximity to large dam reservoirs. We identified 58 studies that examined the relation between water resources development projects and schistosomiasis, primarily in African settings. We present a systematic literature review and meta-analysis with the following objectives: (1) to update at-risk populations of schistosomiasis and number of people infected in endemic countries, and (2) to quantify the risk of water resources development and management on schistosomiasis. Using 35 datasets from 24 African studies, our meta-analysis showed pooled random risk ratios of 2.4 and 2.6 for urinary and intestinal schistosomiasis, respectively, among people living adjacent to dam reservoirs. The risk ratio estimate for studies evaluating the effect of irrigation on urinary schistosomiasis was in the range 0.02-7.3 (summary estimate 1.1) and that on intestinal schistosomiasis in the range 0.49-23.0 (summary estimate 4.7). Geographic stratification showed important spatial differences, idiosyncratic to the type of water resources development. We conclude that the development and management of water resources is an important risk factor for schistosomiasis, and hence strategies to mitigate negative effects should become integral parts in the planning, implementation, and operation of future water projects.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
De Bruin, M L; van Puijenbroek, E P; Egberts, A C G
2002-01-01
AIMS: This study used spontaneous reports of adverse events to estimate the risk for developing cardiac arrhythmias due to the systemic use of non-sedating antihistamine drugs and compared the risk estimate before and after the regulatory action to recall the over-the-counter status of some...... of these drugs. METHODS: All suspected adverse drug reactions (ADRs) reported until July 1999 to the Netherlands Pharmacovigilance Foundation Lareb were used to calculate the ADR reporting odds ratio, defined as the ratio of exposure odds among reported arrhythmia cases, to the exposure odds of other ADRs (non......-sedating antihistamines. In general non-sedating antihistamines are associated with cardiac arrhythmia to a higher extent in comparison with other drugs (ADR reporting odds ratio 2.05 [95% CI: 1.45, 2.89]). The association between arrhythmias and non-sedating antihistamine drugs calculated before 1998...
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João Fabrício Mota Rodrigues
Full Text Available Sampling the biodiversity is an essential step for conservation, and understanding the efficiency of sampling methods allows us to estimate the quality of our biodiversity data. Sex ratio is an important population characteristic, but until now, no study has evaluated how efficient are the sampling methods commonly used in biodiversity surveys in estimating the sex ratio of populations. We used a virtual ecologist approach to investigate whether active and passive capture methods are able to accurately sample a population's sex ratio and whether differences in movement pattern and detectability between males and females produce biased estimates of sex-ratios when using these methods. Our simulation allowed the recognition of individuals, similar to mark-recapture studies. We found that differences in both movement patterns and detectability between males and females produce biased estimates of sex ratios. However, increasing the sampling effort or the number of sampling days improves the ability of passive or active capture methods to properly sample sex ratio. Thus, prior knowledge regarding movement patterns and detectability for species is important information to guide field studies aiming to understand sex ratio related patterns.
Rodrigues, João Fabrício Mota; Coelho, Marco Túlio Pacheco
2016-01-01
Sampling the biodiversity is an essential step for conservation, and understanding the efficiency of sampling methods allows us to estimate the quality of our biodiversity data. Sex ratio is an important population characteristic, but until now, no study has evaluated how efficient are the sampling methods commonly used in biodiversity surveys in estimating the sex ratio of populations. We used a virtual ecologist approach to investigate whether active and passive capture methods are able to accurately sample a population's sex ratio and whether differences in movement pattern and detectability between males and females produce biased estimates of sex-ratios when using these methods. Our simulation allowed the recognition of individuals, similar to mark-recapture studies. We found that differences in both movement patterns and detectability between males and females produce biased estimates of sex ratios. However, increasing the sampling effort or the number of sampling days improves the ability of passive or active capture methods to properly sample sex ratio. Thus, prior knowledge regarding movement patterns and detectability for species is important information to guide field studies aiming to understand sex ratio related patterns.
Estimating the re-identification risk of clinical data sets
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Dankar Fida
2012-07-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background De-identification is a common way to protect patient privacy when disclosing clinical data for secondary purposes, such as research. One type of attack that de-identification protects against is linking the disclosed patient data with public and semi-public registries. Uniqueness is a commonly used measure of re-identification risk under this attack. If uniqueness can be measured accurately then the risk from this kind of attack can be managed. In practice, it is often not possible to measure uniqueness directly, therefore it must be estimated. Methods We evaluated the accuracy of uniqueness estimators on clinically relevant data sets. Four candidate estimators were identified because they were evaluated in the past and found to have good accuracy or because they were new and not evaluated comparatively before: the Zayatz estimator, slide negative binomial estimator, Pitman’s estimator, and mu-argus. A Monte Carlo simulation was performed to evaluate the uniqueness estimators on six clinically relevant data sets. We varied the sampling fraction and the uniqueness in the population (the value being estimated. The median relative error and inter-quartile range of the uniqueness estimates was measured across 1000 runs. Results There was no single estimator that performed well across all of the conditions. We developed a decision rule which selected between the Pitman, slide negative binomial and Zayatz estimators depending on the sampling fraction and the difference between estimates. This decision rule had the best consistent median relative error across multiple conditions and data sets. Conclusion This study identified an accurate decision rule that can be used by health privacy researchers and disclosure control professionals to estimate uniqueness in clinical data sets. The decision rule provides a reliable way to measure re-identification risk.
Carey, David L; Blanch, Peter; Ong, Kok-Leong; Crossley, Kay M; Crow, Justin; Morris, Meg E
2017-01-01
Aims (1) To investigate whether a daily acute:chronic workload ratio informs injury risk in Australian football players; (2) to identify which combination of workload variable, acute and chronic time window best explains injury likelihood. Methods Workload and injury data were collected from 53 athletes over 2 seasons in a professional Australian football club. Acute:chronic workload ratios were calculated daily for each athlete, and modelled against non-contact injury likelihood using a quadratic relationship. 6 workload variables, 8 acute time windows (2–9 days) and 7 chronic time windows (14–35 days) were considered (336 combinations). Each parameter combination was compared for injury likelihood fit (using R2). Results The ratio of moderate speed running workload (18–24 km/h) in the previous 3 days (acute time window) compared with the previous 21 days (chronic time window) best explained the injury likelihood in matches (R2=0.79) and in the immediate 2 or 5 days following matches (R2=0.76–0.82). The 3:21 acute:chronic workload ratio discriminated between high-risk and low-risk athletes (relative risk=1.98–2.43). Using the previous 6 days to calculate the acute workload time window yielded similar results. The choice of acute time window significantly influenced model performance and appeared to reflect the competition and training schedule. Conclusions Daily workload ratios can inform injury risk in Australian football. Clinicians and conditioning coaches should consider the sport-specific schedule of competition and training when choosing acute and chronic time windows. For Australian football, the ratio of moderate speed running in a 3-day or 6-day acute time window and a 21-day chronic time window best explained injury risk. PMID:27789430
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mo-Yeol Kang
Full Text Available To investigate the association between spouse weekly working hours (SWWH and the estimated 10-years risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD.This cross-sectional study was based on the data obtained from the Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2007-2012. Data of 16,917 participants (8,330 husbands, 8,587 wives were used for this analysis. The participants' clinical data were collected to estimate the 10-years risk of CVD, as well as weekly working hours. Multiple logistic regression was conducted to investigate the association between SWWH and the estimated 10-years risk of CVD. We also performed a stratified analysis according to each participant's and their spouse's employment status.Compared to those whose spouses worked 30 hours per week, estimated 10-years risk of CVD was significantly higher as SWWH increase among those whose spouses worked >30 hours per week. After adjusting for covariates, the odds ratio for high CVD risk was found to increase as SWWH increased, up to 2.52 among husbands and 2.43 among wives. We also found that the association between SWWH and the estimated 10-years risk of CVD varied according to the employment status. Analysis of each component included in the CVD appraisal model showed that SWWH had close relationship with diabetes in men, and smoking habits in women.Spouse's long working hours are associated with individual's risk of CVD in future, especially among husbands.
Impact of microbial count distributions on human health risk estimates
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Ribeiro Duarte, Ana Sofia; Nauta, Maarten
2015-01-01
Quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA) is influenced by the choice of the probability distribution used to describe pathogen concentrations, as this may eventually have a large effect on the distribution of doses at exposure. When fitting a probability distribution to microbial...... enumeration data, several factors may have an impact on the accuracy of that fit. Analysis of the best statistical fits of different distributions alone does not provide a clear indication of the impact in terms of risk estimates. Thus, in this study we focus on the impact of fitting microbial distributions...... on risk estimates, at two different concentration scenarios and at a range of prevalence levels. By using five different parametric distributions, we investigate whether different characteristics of a good fit are crucial for an accurate risk estimate. Among the factors studied are the importance...
Estimating age ratios and size of pacific walrus herds on coastal haulouts using video imaging.
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Daniel H Monson
Full Text Available During Arctic summers, sea ice provides resting habitat for Pacific walruses as it drifts over foraging areas in the eastern Chukchi Sea. Climate-driven reductions in sea ice have recently created ice-free conditions in the Chukchi Sea by late summer causing walruses to rest at coastal haulouts along the Chukotka and Alaska coasts, which provides an opportunity to study walruses at relatively accessible locations. Walrus age can be determined from the ratio of tusk length to snout dimensions. We evaluated use of images obtained from a gyro-stabilized video system mounted on a helicopter flying at high altitudes (to avoid disturbance to classify the sex and age of walruses hauled out on Alaska beaches in 2010-2011. We were able to classify 95% of randomly selected individuals to either an 8- or 3-category age class, and we found measurement-based age classifications were more repeatable than visual classifications when using images presenting the correct head profile. Herd density at coastal haulouts averaged 0.88 walruses/m(2 (std. err. = 0.02, herd size ranged from 8,300 to 19,400 (CV 0.03-0.06 and we documented ∼30,000 animals along ∼1 km of beach in 2011. Within the herds, dependent walruses (0-2 yr-olds tended to be located closer to water, and this tendency became more pronounced as the herd spent more time on the beach. Therefore, unbiased estimation of herd age-ratios will require a sampling design that allows for spatial and temporal structuring. In addition, randomly sampling walruses available at the edge of the herd for other purposes (e.g., tagging, biopsying will not sample walruses with an age structure representative of the herd. Sea ice losses are projected to continue, and population age structure data collected with aerial videography at coastal haulouts may provide demographic information vital to ongoing efforts to understand effects of climate change on this species.
Techniques and software tools for estimating ultrasonic signal-to-noise ratios
Chiou, Chien-Ping; Margetan, Frank J.; McKillip, Matthew; Engle, Brady J.; Roberts, Ronald A.
2016-02-01
At Iowa State University's Center for Nondestructive Evaluation (ISU CNDE), the use of models to simulate ultrasonic inspections has played a key role in R&D efforts for over 30 years. To this end a series of wave propagation models, flaw response models, and microstructural backscatter models have been developed to address inspection problems of interest. One use of the combined models is the estimation of signal-to-noise ratios (S/N) in circumstances where backscatter from the microstructure (grain noise) acts to mask sonic echoes from internal defects. Such S/N models have been used in the past to address questions of inspection optimization and reliability. Under the sponsorship of the National Science Foundation's Industry/University Cooperative Research Center at ISU, an effort was recently initiated to improve existing research-grade software by adding graphical user interface (GUI) to become user friendly tools for the rapid estimation of S/N for ultrasonic inspections of metals. The software combines: (1) a Python-based GUI for specifying an inspection scenario and displaying results; and (2) a Fortran-based engine for computing defect signal and backscattered grain noise characteristics. The latter makes use of several models including: the Multi-Gaussian Beam Model for computing sonic fields radiated by commercial transducers; the Thompson-Gray Model for the response from an internal defect; the Independent Scatterer Model for backscattered grain noise; and the Stanke-Kino Unified Model for attenuation. The initial emphasis was on reformulating the research-grade code into a suitable modular form, adding the graphical user interface and performing computations rapidly and robustly. Thus the initial inspection problem being addressed is relatively simple. A normal-incidence pulse/echo immersion inspection is simulated for a curved metal component having a non-uniform microstructure, specifically an equiaxed, untextured microstructure in which the average
Using sightability-adjusted brood-pair ratios to estimate waterfowl productivity
Pagano, Anthony M.; Amundson, Courtney L.; Pieron, Matthew R.; Arnold, Todd W.; Kimmel, Timothy C.
2014-01-01
Historically, biologists used brood-pair ratios (BPRs) as an index to waterfowl productivity to help guide management decisions and evaluate conservation practices. However, BPRs are biased by imperfect detection probabilities, especially for broods. We conducted roadside surveys for breeding waterfowl pairs on 7–8 study sites in the springs of 2006–2008 in northeastern North Dakota, USA. Later each year, we conducted replicate counts of broods on the same wetlands and used mark–recapture methods to estimate sightability-adjusted BPRs (SA-BPRs). Traditional roadside brood surveys detected only 30–45% of the available broods, depending on species. We explored the potential for using SA-BPRs to measure hen success (i.e., the probability a female hatches ≥1 egg across all nesting attempts) for mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) and other upland-nesting dabbling ducks (Anas spp.). We found that SA-BPRs explained 40% of the variation in hen success over 5 species of dabbling ducks, and we were able to detect an effect of predator reduction on hen success in combined dabblers, but not in mallards alone. However, we found no relationship between SA-BPRs and mallard fledging rates (hen success × initial brood size × duckling survival). Our results suggest that SA-BPRs can provide a cost-effective alternative to traditional measures of productivity such as nesting success, but not to measures of duckling survival. Nevertheless, SA-BPRs may be useful in areas where traditional measures of waterfowl productivity are logistically or financially challenging.
Multivariate Risk-Return Decision Making Within Dynamic Estimation
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Josip Arnerić
2008-10-01
Full Text Available Risk management in this paper is focused on multivariate risk-return decision making assuming time-varying estimation. Empirical research in risk management showed that the static "mean-variance" methodology in portfolio optimization is very restrictive with unrealistic assumptions. The objective of this paper is estimation of time-varying portfolio stocks weights by constraints on risk measure. Hence, risk measure dynamic estimation is used in risk controlling. By risk control manager makes free supplementary capital for new investments.Univariate modeling approach is not appropriate, even when portfolio returns are treated as one variable. Portfolio weights are time-varying, and therefore it is necessary to reestimate whole model over time. Using assumption of bivariate Student´s t-distribution, in multivariate GARCH(p,q models, it becomes possible to forecast time-varying portfolio risk much more precisely. The complete procedure of analysis is established from Zagreb Stock Exchange using daily observations of Pliva and Podravka stocks.
Estimating cancer risks to adults undergoing body CT examinations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Huda, W.; He, W.
2012-01-01
The purpose of the study is to estimate cancer risks from the amount of radiation used to perform body computed tomography (CT) examination. The ImPACT CT Patient Dosimetry Calculator was used to compute values of organ doses for adult body CT examinations. The radiation used to perform each examination was quantified by the dose-length product (DLP). Patient organ doses were converted into corresponding age and sex dependent cancer risks using data from BEIR VII. Results are presented for cancer risks per unit DLP and unit effective dose for 11 sensitive organs, as well as estimates of the contribution from 'other organs'. For patients who differ from a standard sized adult, correction factors based on the patient weight and antero-posterior dimension are provided to adjust organ doses and the corresponding risks. At constant incident radiation intensity, for CT examinations that include the chest, risks for females are markedly higher than those for males, whereas for examinations that include the pelvis, risks in males were slightly higher than those in females. In abdominal CT scans, risks for males and female patients are very similar. For abdominal CT scans, increasing the patient age from 20 to 80 resulted in a reduction in patient risks of nearly a factor of 5. The average cancer risk for chest/abdomen/pelvis CT examinations was ∼26 % higher than the cancer risk caused by 'sensitive organs'. Doses and radiation risks in 80 kg adults were ∼10 % lower than those in 70 kg patients. Cancer risks in body CT can be estimated from the examination DLP by accounting for sex, age, as well as patient physical characteristics. (authors)
Shi, Lei; Guo, Lianghui; Ma, Yawei; Li, Yonghua; Wang, Weilai
2018-05-01
The technique of teleseismic receiver function H-κ stacking is popular for estimating the crustal thickness and Vp/Vs ratio. However, it has large uncertainty or ambiguity when the Moho multiples in receiver function are not easy to be identified. We present an improved technique to estimate the crustal thickness and Vp/Vs ratio by joint constraints of receiver function and gravity data. The complete Bouguer gravity anomalies, composed of the anomalies due to the relief of the Moho interface and the heterogeneous density distribution within the crust, are associated with the crustal thickness, density and Vp/Vs ratio. According to their relationship formulae presented by Lowry and Pérez-Gussinyé, we invert the complete Bouguer gravity anomalies by using a common algorithm of likelihood estimation to obtain the crustal thickness and Vp/Vs ratio, and then utilize them to constrain the receiver function H-κ stacking result. We verified the improved technique on three synthetic crustal models and evaluated the influence of selected parameters, the results of which demonstrated that the novel technique could reduce the ambiguity and enhance the accuracy of estimation. Real data test at two given stations in the NE margin of Tibetan Plateau illustrated that the improved technique provided reliable estimations of crustal thickness and Vp/Vs ratio.
Chu, Hui-May; Ette, Ene I
2005-09-02
his study was performed to develop a new nonparametric approach for the estimation of robust tissue-to-plasma ratio from extremely sparsely sampled paired data (ie, one sample each from plasma and tissue per subject). Tissue-to-plasma ratio was estimated from paired/unpaired experimental data using independent time points approach, area under the curve (AUC) values calculated with the naïve data averaging approach, and AUC values calculated using sampling based approaches (eg, the pseudoprofile-based bootstrap [PpbB] approach and the random sampling approach [our proposed approach]). The random sampling approach involves the use of a 2-phase algorithm. The convergence of the sampling/resampling approaches was investigated, as well as the robustness of the estimates produced by different approaches. To evaluate the latter, new data sets were generated by introducing outlier(s) into the real data set. One to 2 concentration values were inflated by 10% to 40% from their original values to produce the outliers. Tissue-to-plasma ratios computed using the independent time points approach varied between 0 and 50 across time points. The ratio obtained from AUC values acquired using the naive data averaging approach was not associated with any measure of uncertainty or variability. Calculating the ratio without regard to pairing yielded poorer estimates. The random sampling and pseudoprofile-based bootstrap approaches yielded tissue-to-plasma ratios with uncertainty and variability. However, the random sampling approach, because of the 2-phase nature of its algorithm, yielded more robust estimates and required fewer replications. Therefore, a 2-phase random sampling approach is proposed for the robust estimation of tissue-to-plasma ratio from extremely sparsely sampled data.
Estimating and mapping the population at risk of sleeping sickness.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Pere P Simarro
Full Text Available Human African trypanosomiasis (HAT, also known as sleeping sickness, persists as a public health problem in several sub-Saharan countries. Evidence-based, spatially explicit estimates of population at risk are needed to inform planning and implementation of field interventions, monitor disease trends, raise awareness and support advocacy. Comprehensive, geo-referenced epidemiological records from HAT-affected countries were combined with human population layers to map five categories of risk, ranging from "very high" to "very low," and to estimate the corresponding at-risk population.Approximately 70 million people distributed over a surface of 1.55 million km(2 are estimated to be at different levels of risk of contracting HAT. Trypanosoma brucei gambiense accounts for 82.2% of the population at risk, the remaining 17.8% being at risk of infection from T. b. rhodesiense. Twenty-one million people live in areas classified as moderate to very high risk, where more than 1 HAT case per 10,000 inhabitants per annum is reported.Updated estimates of the population at risk of sleeping sickness were made, based on quantitative information on the reported cases and the geographic distribution of human population. Due to substantial methodological differences, it is not possible to make direct comparisons with previous figures for at-risk population. By contrast, it will be possible to explore trends in the future. The presented maps of different HAT risk levels will help to develop site-specific strategies for control and surveillance, and to monitor progress achieved by ongoing efforts aimed at the elimination of sleeping sickness.
WASP (Write a Scientific Paper) using Excel - 12: Odds ratio and relative risk.
Grech, Victor
2018-07-01
The calculation of odds ratios and relative risks may be required as part of a data analysis exercise. This paper explains how to set up these calculations in Microsoft Excel from a two by two contingency table. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Application of Singh et al., unbiased estimator in a dual to ratio-cum ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
This paper applied an unbiased estimator in a dual to ratio–cum-product estimator in sample surveys to double sampling design. Its efficiency over the conventional biased double sampling design estimator was determined based on the conditions attached to its supremacy. Three different data sets were used to testify to ...
CSIR Research Space (South Africa)
Ramoelo, Abel
2013-08-01
Full Text Available difference derivative (FD) and log transformation (Log(1/R)). The results showed that CR and WR spectra in combination with PLSR predicted foliar N: P ratio with higher accuracy as compared to FD and R spectra. The performance of CR and WR spectra were...
Estimation of cancer risks from radiotherapy of benign diseases
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Trott, K.R.; Kamprad, F.
2006-01-01
Background: The effective-dose method which was proposed by the ICRP (International Commission of Radiation Protection) for the estimation of risk to the general population from occupational or environmental, low-dose radiation exposure is not adequate for estimating the risk of cancer induction by radiotherapy of malignant or nonmalignant diseases. Methods:The risk of cancer induction by radiotherapy of benign diseases should be based on epidemiologic data directly derived from follow-up studies of patients who had been given radiotherapy for nonmalignant diseases in the past. Results: Risk factors were derived from epidemiologic studies of patients treated with irradiation for nonmalignant diseases to be used for selecting treatment options and optimizing treatment procedures. Conclusion: In most cases, cancer risks estimated by the effective-dose method may overestimate the true risks by one order of magnitude, yet in other cases even may underestimate it. The proposed method using organ-specific risk factors may be more suitable for treatment planning. (orig.)
Population-based absolute risk estimation with survey data
Kovalchik, Stephanie A.; Pfeiffer, Ruth M.
2013-01-01
Absolute risk is the probability that a cause-specific event occurs in a given time interval in the presence of competing events. We present methods to estimate population-based absolute risk from a complex survey cohort that can accommodate multiple exposure-specific competing risks. The hazard function for each event type consists of an individualized relative risk multiplied by a baseline hazard function, which is modeled nonparametrically or parametrically with a piecewise exponential model. An influence method is used to derive a Taylor-linearized variance estimate for the absolute risk estimates. We introduce novel measures of the cause-specific influences that can guide modeling choices for the competing event components of the model. To illustrate our methodology, we build and validate cause-specific absolute risk models for cardiovascular and cancer deaths using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Our applications demonstrate the usefulness of survey-based risk prediction models for predicting health outcomes and quantifying the potential impact of disease prevention programs at the population level. PMID:23686614
Risk estimates for the health effects of alpha radiation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Thomas, D.C.; McNeill, K.G.
1981-09-01
This report provides risk estimates for various health effects of alpha radiation. Human and animal data have been used to characterize the shapes of dose-response relations and the effects of various modifying factors, but quantitative risk estimates are based solely on human data: for lung cancer, on miners in the Colorado plateau, Czechoslovakia, Sweden, Ontario and Newfoundland; for bone and head cancers, on radium dial painters and radium-injected patients. Slopes of dose-response relations for lung cancer show a tendency to decrease with increasing dose. Linear extrapolation is unlikely to underestimate the excess risk at low doses by more than a factor of l.5. Under the linear cell-killing model, our best estimate
Nonparametric estimation of benchmark doses in environmental risk assessment
Piegorsch, Walter W.; Xiong, Hui; Bhattacharya, Rabi N.; Lin, Lizhen
2013-01-01
Summary An important statistical objective in environmental risk analysis is estimation of minimum exposure levels, called benchmark doses (BMDs), that induce a pre-specified benchmark response in a dose-response experiment. In such settings, representations of the risk are traditionally based on a parametric dose-response model. It is a well-known concern, however, that if the chosen parametric form is misspecified, inaccurate and possibly unsafe low-dose inferences can result. We apply a nonparametric approach for calculating benchmark doses, based on an isotonic regression method for dose-response estimation with quantal-response data (Bhattacharya and Kong, 2007). We determine the large-sample properties of the estimator, develop bootstrap-based confidence limits on the BMDs, and explore the confidence limits’ small-sample properties via a short simulation study. An example from cancer risk assessment illustrates the calculations. PMID:23914133
Current estimates of radiation risks and implications for dose limits
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Clarke, R.H.
1989-01-01
The publication of the 1988 report of UNSCEAR represents a major step forward in that there is an international consensus on the estimation of risk from exposure to ionising radiation. The estimates of fatal cancers in the UNSCEAR report are up to 4 times the values in the 1977 review. This paper will describe the reasons for the increase, the remaining uncertainties and the implications for dose limits in occupational and public exposure. (author)
Estimation of risks to humans following intake of plutonium
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Dolphin, G.W.
1979-01-01
The lung cancer in humans induced by plutonium intake usually starts in bronchial epithelium. The main types of lung cancer are epidermoid or squamous cell carcinoma, small cell anaplastic carcinoma, carcinoid types and bronchio-loalveolar cell carcinoma. The data on cancer in the patients given intravascular injections of Thorotrast are the only source of data from which risk estimates can be made for liver cancer. In the beagles injected with plutonium citrate, the only type of liver tumors observed in cholangiosarcoma, and if this were the case for humans, then the appropriate risk estimate is 3 times lower in human patients. Bone sarcoma and the cancer of the epithelial surfaces close to bones have been reported extensively in workers and patients exposed to radium-226 and radium-224. In the case of plutonium, it is assumed for the purpose of risk estimates that the cancer of the epithelial surfaces near bones does not occur. Plutonium passes through guts following ingestion or following the clearance of particles initially deposited in respiratory tracts. In the case of all long-lived radionuclides, lower large intestines are the region which receive the greatest dose from the activity passing through guts. It is assumed that plutonium accumulates in bone marrows through the action of macrophages engulfing the plutonium resorbed from bone surfaces. The main uncertainty in estimating the annual limit of intake probably lies in the metabolic and dosimetric models, and to a lesser extent, in the estimate of risk. (Yamashita, S.)
Stochastic evaluation of tsunami inundation and quantitative estimating tsunami risk
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fukutani, Yo; Anawat, Suppasri; Abe, Yoshi; Imamura, Fumihiko
2014-01-01
We performed a stochastic evaluation of tsunami inundation by using results of stochastic tsunami hazard assessment at the Soma port in the Tohoku coastal area. Eleven fault zones along the Japan trench were selected as earthquake faults generating tsunamis. The results show that estimated inundation area of return period about 1200 years had good agreement with that in the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. In addition, we evaluated quantitatively tsunami risk for four types of building; a reinforced concrete, a steel, a brick and a wood at the Soma port by combining the results of inundation assessment and tsunami fragility assessment. The results of quantitative estimating risk would reflect properly vulnerability of the buildings, that the wood building has high risk and the reinforced concrete building has low risk. (author)
Weissman-Miller, Deborah
2013-11-02
Point estimation is particularly important in predicting weight loss in individuals or small groups. In this analysis, a new health response function is based on a model of human response over time to estimate long-term health outcomes from a change point in short-term linear regression. This important estimation capability is addressed for small groups and single-subject designs in pilot studies for clinical trials, medical and therapeutic clinical practice. These estimations are based on a change point given by parameters derived from short-term participant data in ordinary least squares (OLS) regression. The development of the change point in initial OLS data and the point estimations are given in a new semiparametric ratio estimator (SPRE) model. The new response function is taken as a ratio of two-parameter Weibull distributions times a prior outcome value that steps estimated outcomes forward in time, where the shape and scale parameters are estimated at the change point. The Weibull distributions used in this ratio are derived from a Kelvin model in mechanics taken here to represent human beings. A distinct feature of the SPRE model in this article is that initial treatment response for a small group or a single subject is reflected in long-term response to treatment. This model is applied to weight loss in obesity in a secondary analysis of data from a classic weight loss study, which has been selected due to the dramatic increase in obesity in the United States over the past 20 years. A very small relative error of estimated to test data is shown for obesity treatment with the weight loss medication phentermine or placebo for the test dataset. An application of SPRE in clinical medicine or occupational therapy is to estimate long-term weight loss for a single subject or a small group near the beginning of treatment.
The complex model of risk and progression of AMD estimation
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
V. S. Akopyan
2012-01-01
Full Text Available Purpose: to develop a method and a statistical model to estimate individual risk of AMD and the risk for progression to advanced AMD using clinical and genetic risk factors.Methods: A statistical risk assessment model was developed using stepwise binary logistic regression analysis. to estimate the population differences in the prevalence of allelic variants of genes and for the development of models adapted to the population of Moscow region genotyping and assessment of the influence of other risk factors was performed in two groups: patients with differ- ent stages of AMD (n = 74, and control group (n = 116. Genetic risk factors included in the study: polymorphisms in the complement system genes (C3 and CFH, genes at 10q26 locus (ARMS2 and HtRA1, polymorphism in the mitochondrial gene Mt-ND2. Clinical risk factors included in the study: age, gender, high body mass index, smoking history.Results: A comprehensive analysis of genetic and clinical risk factors for AMD in the study group was performed. Compiled statis- tical model assessment of individual risk of AMD, the sensitivity of the model — 66.7%, specificity — 78.5%, AUC = 0.76. Risk factors of late AMD, compiled a statistical model describing the probability of late AMD, the sensitivity of the model — 66.7%, specificity — 78.3%, AUC = 0.73. the developed system allows determining the most likely version of the current late AMD: dry or wet.Conclusion: the developed test system and the mathematical algorhythm for determining the risk of AMD, risk of progression to advanced AMD have fair diagnostic informative and promising for use in clinical practice.
Summary of the BEIR V committee's estimates of genetic risks
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Grahn, D.
1990-01-01
The Committee on the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiations (BEIR V) was constituted in late 1986 to conduct a comprehensive review of the biological effects of ionizing radiations focusing on information reported since the conclusion of the 1980 BEIR study, and to provide new estimates of the risks of genetic and somatic effects in humans due to low-level exposures of ionizing radiation. The Committee preferred the doubling-dose method of genetic risk estimation over the direct method. Data from animal (mouse) studies provide a median value of 100 to 114 cGy for long-term low dose rate exposure doubling doses. These values are lower than the median from human studies. The BEIR Committee believed that a doubling dose of 100 cGy would be a prudent value leading to conservative estimates. The estimated risks themselves are not much different from those generated by previous BEIR committees, UNSCEAR, and other published estimates. The Committee estimates that between 100 and 200 added cases per million live births will be observed at genetic equilibrium if the population is exposed each generation to a dose of 0.01 Sv (1 rem). Nearly half ware attributed to clinically mild dominant defects, and the balance to congenital abnormalities. (L.L.) (2 tabs.)
Life cycle cost and risk estimation of environmental management options
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Shropshire, D.; Sherick, M.
1996-01-01
The evaluation process is demonstrated in this paper through comparative analysis of two alternative scenarios identified for the management of the alpha-contaminated fixed low-level waste currently stored at INEL. These two scenarios, the Base Case and the Delay Case, are realistic and based on actual data, but are not intended to exactly match actual plans currently being developed at INEL. Life cycle cost estimates were developed for both scenarios using the System Cost Model; resulting costs are presented and compared. Life cycle costs are shown as a function of time and also aggregated by pretreatment, treatment, storage, and disposal activities. Although there are some short-term cost savings for the Delay Case, cumulative life cycle costs eventually become much higher than costs for the Base Case over the same period of time, due mainly to the storage and repackaging necessary to accommodate the longer Delay Case schedule. Life cycle risk estimates were prepared using a new risk analysis method adapted to the System Cost Model architecture for automated, systematic cost/risk applications. Relative risk summaries are presented for both scenarios as a function of time and also aggregated by pretreatment, treatment, storage, and disposal activities. Relative risk of the Delay Case is shown to be higher than that of the Base Case. Finally, risk and cost results are combined to show how the collective information can be used to help identify opportunities for risk or cost reduction and highlight areas where risk reduction can be achieved most economically
Revision of risk estimates and implications for dose limits
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Clarke, R.H.
1989-01-01
It has been apparent for some time that our estimates of the risks associated with exposure to ionizing radiation must be increased above those values reported by UNSCEAR in 1977 an dused by ICRP to form their present recommendations. NRPB foresaw some of these changes and introduced interim advice within the UK to restrict exposures of wordkers and members of the public to levels below the existing limits. Since that advice was given, UNSCEAR has produced a 1988 report reviewing human data to provide new estimates of risks associated with exposure at high doses and high doserates. These risk figures are up to 4 times higher than when UNSCEAR reported in 1977. In this paper, the reasons for the changes in the estimates of risk will be described and the current NRPB guidelines for risk factors for protection purposes will be presented. The implications of these new risk factors for the setting of dose limits will then be discussed. (Author). 10 refs.; 2 tabs
[Waist-to-height ratio is an indicator of metabolic risk in children].
Valle-Leal, Jaime; Abundis-Castro, Leticia; Hernández-Escareño, Juan; Flores-Rubio, Salvador
2016-01-01
Abdominal fat, particularly visceral, is associated with a high risk of metabolic complications. The waist-height ratio (WHtR) is used to assess abdominal fat in individuals of all ages. To determine the ability of the waist-to-height ratio to detect metabolic risk in mexican schoolchildren. A study was conducted on children between 6 and 12 years. Obesity was diagnosed as a body mass index (BMI) ≥ 85th percentile, and an ICE ≥0.5 was considered abdominal obesity. Blood levels of glucose, cholesterol and triglycerides were measured. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive and negative value, area under curve, the positive likelihood ratio and negative likelihood ratio of the WHtR and BMI were calculated in order to identify metabolic alterations. WHtR and BMI were compared to determine which had the best diagnostic efficiency. Of the 223 children included in the study, 51 had hypertriglyceridaemia, 27 with hypercholesterolaemia, and 9 with hyperglycaemia. On comparing the diagnostic efficiency of WHtR with that of BMI, there was a sensitivity of 100% vs. 56% for hyperglycaemia, 93 vs. 70% for cholesterol, and 76 vs. 59% for hypertriglyceridaemia. The specificity, negative predictive value, positive predictive value, positive likelihood ratio, negative likelihood ratio, and area under curve were also higher for WHtR. The WHtR is a more efficient indicator than BMI in identifying metabolic risk in mexican school-age. Copyright © 2015 Sociedad Chilena de Pediatría. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.
Sijtsma, Anna; Bocca, Gianni; L'abée, Carianne; Liem, Eryn T; Sauer, Pieter J J; Corpeleijn, Eva
Objective: To assess whether waist-to-height-ratio (WHtR) is a better estimate of body fat percentage (BF %) and a better indicator of cardiometabolic risk factors than BMI or waist circumference (WC) in young children. Methods: WHtR, WC and BMI were measured by trained staff according to
Evaluation for moments of a ratio with application to regression estimation
Doukhan, Paul; Lang, Gabriel
2008-01-01
Ratios of random variables often appear in probability and statistical applications. We aim to approximate the moments of such ratios under several dependence assumptions. Extending the ideas in Collomb [C. R. Acad. Sci. Paris 285 (1977) 289–292], we propose sharper bounds for the moments of randomly weighted sums and for the Lp-deviations from the asymptotic normal law when the central limit theorem holds. We indicate suitable applications in finance and censored data analysis and focus on t...
Estimation of Radiological Terrorism Risk by Administrative Districts
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kim, Suk Hoon; Kim, Ju Youl [Seoul National Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Yoo, Ho Sik [Korea Institute of Nuclear Nonproliferation and Control, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)
2008-10-15
Since the 9/11 attack in USA, the threat of terrorism across the world has dramatically increased. Accordingly, estimating terrorism risk has become an essential part of catastrophe risk strategies throughout the world. There are many forms of terrorism. Recently, the prospect of the radiological terrorist attack using the radioactive material is considered as one of the most serious threats. The aim of this paper is to assess the radiological terrorism risk by administrative districts based on the parameters that imply threat, vulnerability, and consequences of terrorist attacks.
Estimation of Radiological Terrorism Risk by Administrative Districts
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kim, Suk Hoon; Kim, Ju Youl; Yoo, Ho Sik
2008-01-01
Since the 9/11 attack in USA, the threat of terrorism across the world has dramatically increased. Accordingly, estimating terrorism risk has become an essential part of catastrophe risk strategies throughout the world. There are many forms of terrorism. Recently, the prospect of the radiological terrorist attack using the radioactive material is considered as one of the most serious threats. The aim of this paper is to assess the radiological terrorism risk by administrative districts based on the parameters that imply threat, vulnerability, and consequences of terrorist attacks
Carey, David L; Blanch, Peter; Ong, Kok-Leong; Crossley, Kay M; Crow, Justin; Morris, Meg E
2017-08-01
(1) To investigate whether a daily acute:chronic workload ratio informs injury risk in Australian football players; (2) to identify which combination of workload variable, acute and chronic time window best explains injury likelihood. Workload and injury data were collected from 53 athletes over 2 seasons in a professional Australian football club. Acute:chronic workload ratios were calculated daily for each athlete, and modelled against non-contact injury likelihood using a quadratic relationship. 6 workload variables, 8 acute time windows (2-9 days) and 7 chronic time windows (14-35 days) were considered (336 combinations). Each parameter combination was compared for injury likelihood fit (using R 2 ). The ratio of moderate speed running workload (18-24 km/h) in the previous 3 days (acute time window) compared with the previous 21 days (chronic time window) best explained the injury likelihood in matches (R 2 =0.79) and in the immediate 2 or 5 days following matches (R 2 =0.76-0.82). The 3:21 acute:chronic workload ratio discriminated between high-risk and low-risk athletes (relative risk=1.98-2.43). Using the previous 6 days to calculate the acute workload time window yielded similar results. The choice of acute time window significantly influenced model performance and appeared to reflect the competition and training schedule. Daily workload ratios can inform injury risk in Australian football. Clinicians and conditioning coaches should consider the sport-specific schedule of competition and training when choosing acute and chronic time windows. For Australian football, the ratio of moderate speed running in a 3-day or 6-day acute time window and a 21-day chronic time window best explained injury risk. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.
Estimation of Cardiovascular Risk in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Belkis Vicente Sánchez
2015-09-01
Full Text Available Background: diabetes mellitus accelerates atherosclerotic changes throughout the vascular tree and consequently increases the risk of developing fatal acute events. Objective: to estimate the global cardiovascular risk in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus. Method: a cross-sectional study of a series of type 2 diabetic patients from the People's Council of Constancia, Abreus municipality, Cienfuegos province was conducted from July to December 2012. The universe comprised the 180 people with diabetes in the area. Variables studied were: age, sex, body mass index, nutritional assessment, blood pressure, toxic habits, associated chronic diseases, blood levels of glucose, lipids (total cholesterol and triglycerides and microalbuminuria. World Health Organization/International Society of Hypertension prediction charts specific to the region of the Americas, in which Cuba is included, were used to estimate the cardiovascular risk. Results: mean age was 61.63 years and females predominated. Relevant risk factors were hypertension followed by obesity, smoking and dyslipidemia. Mean body mass index was 27.66kg/m2; waist circumference was 94.45 cm in women and 96.86 cm in men. Thirty point six percent had more than two uncontrolled risk factors and 28.3 % of the total presented a high to very high cardiovascular risk. Conclusions: cardiovascular risk prediction charts are helpful tools for making clinical decisions, but their interpretation must be flexible and allow the intervention of clinical reasoning.
Reconstruction of financial networks for robust estimation of systemic risk
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mastromatteo, Iacopo; Zarinelli, Elia; Marsili, Matteo
2012-01-01
In this paper we estimate the propagation of liquidity shocks through interbank markets when the information about the underlying credit network is incomplete. We show that techniques such as maximum entropy currently used to reconstruct credit networks severely underestimate the risk of contagion by assuming a trivial (fully connected) topology, a type of network structure which can be very different from the one empirically observed. We propose an efficient message-passing algorithm to explore the space of possible network structures and show that a correct estimation of the network degree of connectedness leads to more reliable estimations for systemic risk. Such an algorithm is also able to produce maximally fragile structures, providing a practical upper bound for the risk of contagion when the actual network structure is unknown. We test our algorithm on ensembles of synthetic data encoding some features of real financial networks (sparsity and heterogeneity), finding that more accurate estimations of risk can be achieved. Finally we find that this algorithm can be used to control the amount of information that regulators need to require from banks in order to sufficiently constrain the reconstruction of financial networks
Reconstruction of financial networks for robust estimation of systemic risk
Mastromatteo, Iacopo; Zarinelli, Elia; Marsili, Matteo
2012-03-01
In this paper we estimate the propagation of liquidity shocks through interbank markets when the information about the underlying credit network is incomplete. We show that techniques such as maximum entropy currently used to reconstruct credit networks severely underestimate the risk of contagion by assuming a trivial (fully connected) topology, a type of network structure which can be very different from the one empirically observed. We propose an efficient message-passing algorithm to explore the space of possible network structures and show that a correct estimation of the network degree of connectedness leads to more reliable estimations for systemic risk. Such an algorithm is also able to produce maximally fragile structures, providing a practical upper bound for the risk of contagion when the actual network structure is unknown. We test our algorithm on ensembles of synthetic data encoding some features of real financial networks (sparsity and heterogeneity), finding that more accurate estimations of risk can be achieved. Finally we find that this algorithm can be used to control the amount of information that regulators need to require from banks in order to sufficiently constrain the reconstruction of financial networks.
Biomechanical Indices for Rupture Risk Estimation in Abdominal Aortic Aneurysms
Leemans, Eva L.; Willems, Tineke P.; van der Laan, Maarten J.; Slump, Cornelis H.; Zeebregts, Clark J.
2017-01-01
Purpose: To review the use of biomechanical indices for the estimation of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) rupture risk, emphasizing their potential use in a clinical setting. Methods: A search of the PubMed, Embase, Scopus, and Compendex databases was made up to June 2015 to identify articles
[Survival analysis with competing risks: estimating failure probability].
Llorca, Javier; Delgado-Rodríguez, Miguel
2004-01-01
To show the impact of competing risks of death on survival analysis. We provide an example of survival time without chronic rejection after heart transplantation, where death before rejection acts as a competing risk. Using a computer simulation, we compare the Kaplan-Meier estimator and the multiple decrement model. The Kaplan-Meier method overestimated the probability of rejection. Next, we illustrate the use of the multiple decrement model to analyze secondary end points (in our example: death after rejection). Finally, we discuss Kaplan-Meier assumptions and why they fail in the presence of competing risks. Survival analysis should be adjusted for competing risks of death to avoid overestimation of the risk of rejection produced with the Kaplan-Meier method.
Waters, Martha; McKernan, Lauralynn; Maier, Andrew; Jayjock, Michael; Schaeffer, Val; Brosseau, Lisa
2015-01-01
The fundamental goal of this article is to describe, define, and analyze the components of the risk characterization process for occupational exposures. Current methods are described for the probabilistic characterization of exposure, including newer techniques that have increasing applications for assessing data from occupational exposure scenarios. In addition, since the probability of health effects reflects variability in the exposure estimate as well as the dose-response curve—the integrated considerations of variability surrounding both components of the risk characterization provide greater information to the occupational hygienist. Probabilistic tools provide a more informed view of exposure as compared to use of discrete point estimates for these inputs to the risk characterization process. Active use of such tools for exposure and risk assessment will lead to a scientifically supported worker health protection program. Understanding the bases for an occupational risk assessment, focusing on important sources of variability and uncertainty enables characterizing occupational risk in terms of a probability, rather than a binary decision of acceptable risk or unacceptable risk. A critical review of existing methods highlights several conclusions: (1) exposure estimates and the dose-response are impacted by both variability and uncertainty and a well-developed risk characterization reflects and communicates this consideration; (2) occupational risk is probabilistic in nature and most accurately considered as a distribution, not a point estimate; and (3) occupational hygienists have a variety of tools available to incorporate concepts of risk characterization into occupational health and practice. PMID:26302336
Is The Ca + K + Mg/Al Ratio in the Soil Solution a Predictive Tool for Estimating Forest Damage?
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Goeransson, A.; Eldhuset, T. D.
2001-01-01
The ratio between (Ca +K +Mg) and Al in nutrient solution has been suggested as a predictive tool for estimating tree growth disturbance. However, the ratio is unspecific in the sense that it is based on several elements which are all essential for plant growth;each of these may be growth-limiting. Furthermore,aluminium retards growth at higher concentrations. Itis therefore difficult to give causal and objective biological explanations for possible growth disturbances. The importance of the proportion of base-cations to N, at a fixed base-cation/Al ratio, is evaluated with regard to growth of Picea abies.The uptake of elements was found to be selective; nutrients were taken up while most Al remained in solution. Biomass partitioning to the roots increased after aluminium addition with low proportions of basecations to nitrogen. We conclude that the low growthrates depend on nutrient limitation in these treatments. Low growth rates in the high proportion experiments may be explained by high internal Alconcentrations. The results strongly suggest that growth rate is not correlated with the ratio in the rooting medium and question the validity of using ratios as predictive tools for estimating forest damage. We suggest that growth limitation of Picea abies in the field may depend on low proportions of base cations to nitrate. It is therefore important to know the nutritional status of the plant material in relation to the growth potential and environmental limitation to be able to predict and estimate forest damage
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mehta, S.K.; Sarangapani, R.
1995-01-01
This paper presents tabulations of risk (R) and person-years of life lost (PYLL) for acute exposures of individual organs at ages 20 and 40 yrs for the Indian and Japanese populations to illustrate the effect of age at exposure in the two models. Results are also presented for the organ wise nominal probability coefficients (NPC) and PYLL for individual organs for the age distributed Indian population by the two models. The results presented show that for all organs the estimates of PYLL and NPC for the Indian population are lower than those for the Japanese population by both models except for oesophagus, breast and ovary by the relative risk (RR) model, where the opposite trend is observed. The results also show that the Indian all-cancer values of NPC averaged over the two models is 2.9 x 10 -2 Sv -1 , significantly lower than the world average value of 5x10 -2 Sv -1 estimated by the ICRP. (author). 9 refs., 2 figs., 2 tabs
The ratios of regioisomers of triacylglycerols (TAG) have been estimated by mass spectrometry using the fact that the neutral loss of fatty acid (FA) from the sn-2 position is energetically less favored in comparison with that from sn-1,3 positions. However regioisomeric TAG standards were needed fo...
Neoplastic potential of gastric irradiation. IV. Risk estimates
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Griem, M.L.; Justman, J.; Weiss, L.
1984-01-01
No significant tumor increase was found in the initial analysis of patients irradiated for peptic ulcer and followed through 1962. A preliminary study was undertaken 22 years later to estimate the risk of cancer due to gastric irradiation for peptic ulcer disease. A population of 2,049 irradiated patients and 763 medically managed patients has been identified. A relative risk of 3.7 was found for stomach cancer and an initial risk estimate of 5.5 x 10(-6) excess stomach cancers per person rad was calculated. A more complete follow-up is in progress to further elucidate this observation and decrease the ascertainment bias; however, preliminary data are in agreement with the Japanese atomic bomb reports
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Shafqat MN
2018-04-01
Full Text Available Muhammad Nabeel Shafqat,1 Miqdad Haider,2 1Department of Medicine, University of Medical Sciences “Serafin Ruiz de Zarate” Villa Clara (UCMVC, Villa Clara, Cuba; 2Department of Internal Medicine, Fatima Memorial Hospital, Fatima Memorial College of Medicine and Dentistry, Lahore, PakistanWe would like to comment, with great interest, about the recently published article “Visceral-to-subcutaneous fat ratio as a predictor of the multiple metabolic risk factors for subjects with normal waist circumference in Korea” by Oh et al,1 which we found very interesting and valuable. This study is a good step to determine the predictive value of visceral-to-subcutaneous fat ratio (VSR in persons with normal waist circumference for the diagnosis of risk factors for metabolic syndrome.View the original paper by Oh and colleagues.
Best-Estimates in Bond Markets with Reinvestment Risk
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Anne MacKay
2015-07-01
Full Text Available The concept of best-estimate, prescribed by regulators to value insurance liabilities for accounting and solvency purposes, has recently been discussed extensively in the industry and related academic literature. To differentiate hedgeable and non-hedgeable risks in a general case, recent literature defines best-estimates using orthogonal projections of a claim on the space of replicable payoffs. In this paper, we apply this concept of best-estimate to long-maturity claims in a market with reinvestment risk, since in this case the total liability cannot easily be separated into hedgeable and non-hedgeable parts. We assume that a limited number of short-maturity bonds are traded, and derive the best-estimate price of bonds with longer maturities, thus obtaining a best-estimate yield curve. We therefore use the multifactor Vasiˇcek model and derive within this framework closed-form expressions for the best-estimate prices of long-term bonds.
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David A. Swanson
2012-07-01
Full Text Available Census survival methods are the oldest and most widely applicable methods of estimating adult mortality, and for populations with negligible migration they can provide excellent results. The reason for this ubiquity is threefold: (1 their data requirements are minimal in that only two successive age distributions are needed; (2 the two successive age distributions are usually easily obtained from census counts; and (3 the method is straightforward in that it requires neither a great deal of judgment nor “data-fitting” techniques to implement. This ubiquity is in contrast to other methods, which require more data, as well as judgment and, often, data fitting. In this short note, the new approach we demonstrate is that life expectancy at birth can be computed by using census survival rates in combination with an identity whereby the radix of a life table is equal to 1 (l0 = 1.00. We point out that our suggested method is less involved than the existing approach. We compare estimates using our approach against other estimates, and find it works reasonably well. As well as some nuances and cautions, we discuss the benefits of using this approach to estimate life expectancy, including the ability to develop estimates of average remaining life at any age. We believe that the technique is worthy of consideration for use in estimating life expectancy in populations that experience negligible migration.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Lucky Tedrow
2012-01-01
Full Text Available Census survival methods are the oldest and most widely applicable methods of estimating adult mortality, and for populations with negligible migration they can provide excellent results. The reason for this ubiquity is threefold: (1 their data requirements are minimal in that only two successive age distributions are needed; (2 the two successive age distributions are usually easily obtained from census counts; and (3 the method is straightforward in that it requires neither a great deal of judgment nor “data-fitting” techniques to implement. This ubiquity is in contrast to other methods, which require more data, as well as judgment and, often, data fitting. In this short note, the new approach we demonstrate is that life expectancy at birth can be computed by using census survival rates in combination with an identity whereby the radix of a life table is equal to 1 (l0 = 1.00. We point out that our suggested method is less involved than the existing approach. We compare estimates using our approach against other estimates, and find it works reasonably well. As well as some nuances and cautions, we discuss the benefits of using this approach to estimate life expectancy, including the ability to develop estimates of average remaining life at any age. We believe that the technique is worthy of consideration for use in estimating life expectancy in populations that experience negligible migration.
An Increase in the Omega-6/Omega-3 Fatty Acid Ratio Increases the Risk for Obesity
Simopoulos, Artemis P.
2016-01-01
In the past three decades, total fat and saturated fat intake as a percentage of total calories has continuously decreased in Western diets, while the intake of omega-6 fatty acid increased and the omega-3 fatty acid decreased, resulting in a large increase in the omega-6/omega-3 ratio from 1:1 during evolution to 20:1 today or even higher. This change in the composition of fatty acids parallels a significant increase in the prevalence of overweight and obesity. Experimental studies have suggested that omega-6 and omega-3 fatty acids elicit divergent effects on body fat gain through mechanisms of adipogenesis, browning of adipose tissue, lipid homeostasis, brain-gut-adipose tissue axis, and most importantly systemic inflammation. Prospective studies clearly show an increase in the risk of obesity as the level of omega-6 fatty acids and the omega-6/omega-3 ratio increase in red blood cell (RBC) membrane phospholipids, whereas high omega-3 RBC membrane phospholipids decrease the risk of obesity. Recent studies in humans show that in addition to absolute amounts of omega-6 and omega-3 fatty acid intake, the omega-6/omega-3 ratio plays an important role in increasing the development of obesity via both AA eicosanoid metabolites and hyperactivity of the cannabinoid system, which can be reversed with increased intake of eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA). A balanced omega-6/omega-3 ratio is important for health and in the prevention and management of obesity. PMID:26950145
An Increase in the Omega-6/Omega-3 Fatty Acid Ratio Increases the Risk for Obesity
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Artemis P. Simopoulos
2016-03-01
Full Text Available In the past three decades, total fat and saturated fat intake as a percentage of total calories has continuously decreased in Western diets, while the intake of omega-6 fatty acid increased and the omega-3 fatty acid decreased, resulting in a large increase in the omega-6/omega-3 ratio from 1:1 during evolution to 20:1 today or even higher. This change in the composition of fatty acids parallels a significant increase in the prevalence of overweight and obesity. Experimental studies have suggested that omega-6 and omega-3 fatty acids elicit divergent effects on body fat gain through mechanisms of adipogenesis, browning of adipose tissue, lipid homeostasis, brain-gut-adipose tissue axis, and most importantly systemic inflammation. Prospective studies clearly show an increase in the risk of obesity as the level of omega-6 fatty acids and the omega-6/omega-3 ratio increase in red blood cell (RBC membrane phospholipids, whereas high omega-3 RBC membrane phospholipids decrease the risk of obesity. Recent studies in humans show that in addition to absolute amounts of omega-6 and omega-3 fatty acid intake, the omega-6/omega-3 ratio plays an important role in increasing the development of obesity via both AA eicosanoid metabolites and hyperactivity of the cannabinoid system, which can be reversed with increased intake of eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA. A balanced omega-6/omega-3 ratio is important for health and in the prevention and management of obesity.
Estimating population health risk from low-level environmental radon
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fisher, D.R.
1980-01-01
Although incidence of respiratory cancer is directly related to inhalation of radon and radon daughters, the magnitude of the actual risk is uncertain for members of the general population exposed for long periods to low-level concentrations. Currently, any such estimate of the risk must rely on data obtained through previous studies of underground-miner populations. Several methods of risk analysis have resulted from these studies. Since the breathing atmospheres, smoking patterns, and physiology are different between miners and the general public, overestimates of lung cancer risk to the latter may have resulted. Strong evidence exists to support the theory of synergistic action between alpha radiation and other agents, and therefore a modified relative risk model was developed to predict lung cancer risks to the general public. The model considers latent period, observation period, age dependency, and inherent risks from smoking or geographical location. A test of the model showed excellent agreement with results of the study of Czechoslovakian uranium miners, for which the necessary time factors were available. The risk model was also used to predict lung cancer incidence among residents of homes on reclaimed Florida phosphate lands, and results of this analysis indicate that over the space of many years, the increased incidence of lung cancer due to elevated radon levels may be indisgtinguishable from those due to other causes
Model dependencies of risk aversion and working interest estimates
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lerche, I.
1996-01-01
Working interest, W, and risk adjusted value, RAV, are evaluated using both Cozzolino's formula for exponential dependence of risk aversion and also for a hyperbolic tangent dependence. In addition, the general method is given of constructing an RAV formula for any functional choice of risk aversion dependence. Two examples are given to illustrate how the model dependencies influence choices of working interest and risk adjusted value depending on whether the expected value of the project is positive or negative. In general the Cozzolino formula provides a more conservative position for risk than does the hyperbolic tangent formula, reflecting the difference in corporate attitudes to risk aversion. The commonly used Cozzolino formula is shown to have simple exact arithmetic expressions for maximum working interest and maximum RAV; the hyperbolic tangent formula has approximate analytic expressions. Both formulae also yield approximate analytical expressions for the working interest yielding a risk neutral RAV of zero. These arithmetic results are useful for making quick estimates of working interest ranges and risk adjusted values. (Author)
2010-07-01
... Environmental Management Risks and Risk Reduction Strategies § 102-80.50 Are Federal agencies responsible for... identify and estimate safety and environmental management risks and appropriate risk reduction strategies... responsible for identifying/estimating risks and for appropriate risk reduction strategies? 102-80.50 Section...
Daube, C.; Conley, S.; Faloona, I. C.; Yacovitch, T. I.; Roscioli, J. R.; Morris, M.; Curry, J.; Arndt, C.; Herndon, S. C.
2017-12-01
Livestock activity, enteric fermentation of feed and anaerobic digestion of waste, contributes significantly to the methane budget of the United States (EPA, 2016). Studies question the reported magnitude of these methane sources (Miller et. al., 2013), calling for more detailed research of agricultural animals (Hristov, 2014). Tracer flux ratio is an attractive experimental method to bring to this problem because it does not rely on estimates of atmospheric dispersion. Collection of data occurred during one week at two dairy farms in central California (June, 2016). Each farm varied in size, layout, head count, and general operation. The tracer flux ratio method involves releasing ethane on-site with a known flow rate to serve as a tracer gas. Downwind mixed enhancements in ethane (from the tracer) and methane (from the dairy) were measured, and their ratio used to infer the unknown methane emission rate from the farm. An instrumented van drove transects downwind of each farm on public roads while tracer gases were released on-site, employing the tracer flux ratio methodology to assess simultaneous methane and tracer gas plumes. Flying circles around each farm, a small instrumented aircraft made measurements to perform a mass balance evaluation of methane gas. In the course of these two different methane quantification techniques, we were able to validate yet a third method: tracer flux ratio measured via aircraft. Ground-based tracer release rates were applied to the aircraft-observed methane-to-ethane ratios, yielding whole-site methane emission rates. Never before has the tracer flux ratio method been executed with aircraft measurements. Estimates from this new application closely resemble results from the standard ground-based technique to within their respective uncertainties. Incorporating this new dimension to the tracer flux ratio methodology provides additional context for local plume dynamics and validation of both ground and flight-based data.
Adequacy of relative and absolute risk models for lifetime risk estimate of radiation-induced cancer
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
McBride, M.; Coldman, A.J.
1988-03-01
This report examines the applicability of the relative (multiplicative) and absolute (additive) models in predicting lifetime risk of radiation-induced cancer. A review of the epidemiologic literature, and a discussion of the mathematical models of carcinogenesis and their relationship to these models of lifetime risk, are included. Based on the available data, the relative risk model for the estimation of lifetime risk is preferred for non-sex-specific epithelial tumours. However, because of lack of knowledge concerning other determinants of radiation risk and of background incidence rates, considerable uncertainty in modelling lifetime risk still exists. Therefore, it is essential that follow-up of exposed cohorts be continued so that population-based estimates of lifetime risk are available
Methods for estimating risks to nuclear power plants from shipping
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Walker, D.H.; Hartman, M.G.; Robbins, T.R.
1975-01-01
Nuclear power plants sited on land near shipping lanes or offshore can be exposed to potential risks if there is nearby ship or barge traffic which involves the transport of hazardous cargo. Methods that have been developed for estimating the degree of risk are summarized. Of concern are any accidents which could lead to a release or spill of the hazardous cargo, or to an explosion. A probability of occurrence of the order of 10 -7 per year is a general guideline which has been used to judge whether or not the risk from hazards created by accidents is acceptable. This guideline has been followed in the risk assessment discussed in this paper. 19 references
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Alison J. Scott
2015-11-01
Full Text Available Water-soluble polymers of acrylamide (AAm and acrylic acid (AAc have significant potential in enhanced oil recovery, as well as in other specialty applications. To improve the shear strength of the polymer, a third comonomer, 2-acrylamido-2-methylpropane sulfonic acid (AMPS, can be added to the pre-polymerization mixture. Copolymerization kinetics of AAm/AAc are well studied, but little is known about the other comonomer pairs (AMPS/AAm and AMPS/AAc. Hence, reactivity ratios for AMPS/AAm and AMPS/AAc copolymerization must be established first. A key aspect in the estimation of reliable reactivity ratios is design of experiments, which minimizes the number of experiments and provides increased information content (resulting in more precise parameter estimates. However, design of experiments is hardly ever used during copolymerization parameter estimation schemes. In the current work, copolymerization experiments for both AMPS/AAm and AMPS/AAc are designed using two optimal techniques (Tidwell-Mortimer and the error-in-variables-model (EVM. From these optimally designed experiments, accurate reactivity ratio estimates are determined for AMPS/AAm (rAMPS = 0.18, rAAm = 0.85 and AMPS/AAc (rAMPS = 0.19, rAAc = 0.86.
Goegebeur, Y.; de Boeck, P.; Molenberghs, G.
2010-01-01
The local influence diagnostics, proposed by Cook (1986), provide a flexible way to assess the impact of minor model perturbations on key model parameters’ estimates. In this paper, we apply the local influence idea to the detection of test speededness in a model describing nonresponse in test data,
The acute:chonic workload ratio in relation to injury risk in professional soccer.
Malone, Shane; Owen, Adam; Newton, Matt; Mendes, Bruno; Collins, Kieran D; Gabbett, Tim J
2017-06-01
To examine the association between combined sRPE measures and injury risk in elite professional soccer. Observational cohort study. Forty-eight professional soccer players (mean±SD age of 25.3±3.1 yr) from two elite European teams were involved within a one season study. Players completed a test of intermittent-aerobic capacity (Yo-YoIR1) to assess player's injury risk in relation to intermittent aerobic capacity. Weekly workload measures and time loss injuries were recorded during the entire period. Rolling weekly sums and week-to-week changes in workload were measured, allowing for the calculation of the acute:chronic workload ratio, which was calculated by dividing the acute (1-weekly) and chronic (4-weekly) workloads. All derived workload measures were modelled against injury data using logistic regression. Odds ratios (OR) were reported against a reference group. Players who exerted pre-season 1-weekly loads of ≥1500 to ≤2120AU were at significantly higher risk of injury compared to the reference group of ≤1500AU (OR=1.95, p=0.006). Players with increased intermittent-aerobic capacity were better able to tolerate increased 1-weekly absolute changes in training load than players with lower fitness levels (OR=4.52, p=0.011). Players who exerted in-season acute:chronic workload ratios of >1.00 to soccer players. A higher intermittent-aerobic capacity appears to offer greater injury protection when players are exposed to rapid changes in workload in elite soccer players. Moderate workloads, coupled with moderate-low to moderate-high acute:chronic workload ratios, appear to be protective for professional soccer players. Copyright © 2016 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Estimating radiation risk induced by CT screening for Korean population
Yang, Won Seok; Yang, Hye Jeong; Min, Byung In
2017-02-01
The purposes of this study are to estimate the radiation risks induced by chest/abdomen computed tomography (CT) screening for healthcare and to determine the cancer risk level of the Korean population compared to other populations. We used an ImPACT CT Patient Dosimetry Calculator to compute the organ effective dose induced by CT screening (chest, low-dose chest, abdomen/pelvis, and chest/abdomen/pelvis CT). A risk model was applied using principles based on the BEIR VII Report in order to estimate the lifetime attributable risk (LAR) using the Korean Life Table 2010. In addition, several countries including Hong Kong, the United States (U.S.), and the United Kingdom, were selected for comparison. Herein, each population exposed radiation dose of 100 mSv was classified according to country, gender and age. For each CT screening the total organ effective dose calculated by ImPACT was 6.2, 1.5, 5.2 and 11.4 mSv, respectively. In the case of Korean female LAR, it was similar to Hong Kong female but lower than those of U.S. and U.K. females, except for those in their twenties. The LAR of Korean males was the highest for all types of CT screening. However, the difference of the risk level was negligible because of the quite low value.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hashizume, T; Maruyama, T; Noda, Y; Iwai, K; Tateno, Y [National Inst. of Radiological Sciences, Chiba (Japan); Nishizawa, K
1981-01-01
The risks of genetic, leukemia and malignant diseases from medical X-ray diagnostic examinations were estimated using the frequency of radiographic and fluoroscopic exposures per diagnostic examination, child expectancy, leukemia and malignancy significant factors, and using a weighting factor determined on the basis of data concerning the cancer mortality among atomic bomb survivors in Nagasaki and of a recommendation of International Commission of Radiological Protection. The organ or tissue doses with respect to the stochastic risks were determined with ionization chambers and thermoluminescent dosimeters placed at the positions of the organs or tissues in a RANDO woman phantom which was exposed to diagnostic X-rays according to technical factors of typical radiographic and fluoroscopic examinations obtained from a nationwide survey. The resultant risks by age-group and type of radiographic and fluoroscopic examination are tabulated in terms of risk level of 10/sup -6/. In general, the total risk defined as the sum of genetic, leukemia and malignant risks was a high value for the X-ray diagnosis of digestive organs involving barium meal and barium enema. For example, the total risk for young age-group was 100 to 200 x 10/sup -6/ for the X-ray diagnosis of digestive organs. The total risk from the chest radiography was lower value as compared with the risk from the X-ray diagnosis of other organs or tissues. On the contrary, the risk from the chest tomography was comparable to the risk from the diagnosis of digestive organs. The total risk decreased with increasing of age for every X-ray diagnostic examination.
Radiation-Induced Second Cancer Risk Estimates From Radionuclide Therapy
Bednarz, Bryan; Besemer, Abigail
2017-09-01
The use of radionuclide therapy in the clinical setting is expected to increase significantly over the next decade. There is an important need to understand the radiation-induced second cancer risk associated with these procedures. In this study the radiation-induced cancer risk in five radionuclide therapy patients was investigated. These patients underwent serial SPECT imaging scans following injection as part of a clinical trial testing the efficacy of a 131Iodine-labeled radiopharmaceutical. Using these datasets the committed absorbed doses to multiple sensitive structures were calculated using RAPID, which is a novel Monte Carlo-based 3D dosimetry platform developed for personalized dosimetry. The excess relative risk (ERR) for radiation-induced cancer in these structures was then derived from these dose estimates following the recommendations set forth in the BEIR VII report. The radiation-induced leukemia ERR was highest among all sites considered reaching a maximum value of approximately 4.5. The radiation-induced cancer risk in the kidneys, liver and spleen ranged between 0.3 and 1.3. The lifetime attributable risks (LARs) were also calculated, which ranged from 30 to 1700 cancers per 100,000 persons and were highest for leukemia and the liver for both males and females followed by radiation-induced spleen and kidney cancer. The risks associated with radionuclide therapy are similar to the risk associated with external beam radiation therapy.
Agarwal, Nitin; Zenonos, Georgios A; Agarwal, Prateek; Walch, Frank J; Roach, Eileen; Stokes, Sandra J; Friedlander, Robert M; Gerszten, Peter C
2018-03-09
Pharmacological prophylaxis for venous thromboembolism (VTE) in the neurosurgical population is still a matter of debate, as the risk-to-benefit ratio is not well defined. To further evaluate the risk-to-benefit ratio of VTE prophylaxis (VTEP) for all neurosurgical procedures. A prospective evaluation was performed after the initiation of a VTEP protocol for 11 436 patients undergoing neurosurgical procedures over 24 mo. Unless a bleeding complication was present, 5000 international units of subcutaneous heparin every 8 h was ordered on postoperative day (POD) 1 for spine, POD2 for cranial, and by POD4 for subdural, intracerebral, and epidural hematoma cases. Incidence of VTE and any subsequent bleeding complications were noted. A total of 70 VTEs (0.6% overall) were documented (28 deep vein thrombosis, 42 pulmonary embnolism). The highest rates of VTE were associated with deformity (6.7%); open cerebrovascular (6.5%); subdural, intracerebral, and epidural hematoma (3.2%); spinal trauma (2.4%); and craniotomy for tumor (1.6%) cases. Seven cases of deep vein thrombosis progressed to pulmonary embolisms, and 66 of 70 VTEs occurred while on pharmacological VTEP. Fifty-four bleeding complications occurred on or after POD2 following initiation of VTEP. These bleeding complications consisted of any new clinically or radiographically observed hemorrhages. Twenty-eight of the 54 delayed bleeding complications required operative intervention with 1 mortality. Forty-five patients were on anticoagulation when the initial bleeding event occurred. Overall, an estimated 0.5% incidence of delayed bleeding complications was noted with 99.4% of patients within the study cohort remaining VTE free. This VTEP protocol was determined to afford a good risk-to-benefit ratio for a wide variety of neurosurgical procedures.
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Meher Krishna Patel
2017-01-01
Full Text Available This paper presents an adaptive multiuser transceiver scheme for DS-CDMA systems in which pilot symbols are added to users’ data to estimate complex channel fading coefficients. The performance of receiver antenna diversity with maximal ratio combining (MRC technique is analyzed for imperfect channel estimation in flat fading environments. The complex fading coefficients are estimated using least mean square (LMS algorithm and these coefficients are utilized by the maximal ratio combiner for generating the decision variable. Probability of error in closed form is derived. Further, the effect of pilot signal power on bit error rate (BER and BER performance of multiplexed pilot and data signal transmission scenario are investigated. We have compared the performance of added and multiplexed pilot-data systems and concluded the advantages of both systems. The proposed CDMA technique uses the chaotic sequence as spreading sequence. Assuming proper synchronization, the computer simulation results demonstrate the better bit error rate performance in the presence of channel estimator in the chaotic based CDMA system and the receiver antenna diversity technique further improves the performance of the proposed system. Also, no channel estimator is required if there is no phase distortion to the transmitted signal.
Estimation of equivalence ratio distribution in diesel spray using a computational fluid dynamics
Suzuki, Yasumasa; Tsujimura, Taku; Kusaka, Jin
2014-08-01
It is important to understand the mechanism of mixing and atomization of the diesel spray. In addition, the computational prediction of mixing behavior and internal structure of a diesel spray is expected to promote the further understanding about a diesel spray and development of the diesel engine including devices for fuel injection. In this study, we predicted the formation of diesel fuel spray with 3D-CFD code and validated the application by comparing experimental results of the fuel spray behavior and the equivalence ratio visualized by Layleigh-scatter imaging under some ambient, injection and fuel conditions. Using the applicable constants of KH-RT model, we can predict the liquid length spray on a quantitative level. under various fuel injection, ambient and fuel conditions. On the other hand, the change of the vapor penetration and the fuel mass fraction and equivalence ratio distribution with change of fuel injection and ambient conditions quantitatively. The 3D-CFD code used in this study predicts the spray cone angle and entrainment of ambient gas are predicted excessively, therefore there is the possibility of the improvement in the prediction accuracy by the refinement of fuel droplets breakup and evaporation model and the quantitative prediction of spray cone angle.
Yang, Eun Mi; Yoon, Bo Ae; Kim, Soo Wan; Kim, Chan Jong
2017-06-01
The spot urine protein-to-creatinine ratio (UPCR) is widely used to predict 24-h urine protein (24-h UP) excretion. In patients with low daily urine creatinine excretion (UCr), however, the UPCR may overestimate 24-h UP. The aim of this study was to predict 24-h UP using UPCR adjusted by estimated 24-h UCr in children. This study included 442 children whose 24-h UP and spot UPCR were measured concomitantly. Estimated 24-h UCr was calculated using three previously existing equations. We estimated the 24-h UP excretion from UPCR by multiplying the estimated UCr. The results were compared with the measured 24-h UP. There was a strong correlation between UPCR and 24-h UP (r = 0.801, P < 0.001), and the correlation improved after multiplying the UPCR by the measured UCr (r = 0.847, P < 0.001). Using the estimated UCr rather than the measured UCr, there was high accuracy and strong correlation between the estimated UPCR weighted by the Cockcroft-Gault equation and 24-h UP. Improvement was also observed in the subgroup (proteinuria vs. non-proteinuria) analysis, particularly in the proteinuria group. The spot UPCR multiplied by the estimated UCr improved the accuracy of prediction of the 24-h UP in children.
Estimating Risk and Return Combinations for New Derivatives Funds
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Alexandre Bona
2004-12-01
Full Text Available Active funds are typically managed by placing bets against a well defined passive bench-mark. In this context, when examining the launching of a new actively managed fund with a target expected excess rate of return relative to the benchmark equal to µ, asset managers face the problem of estimating the risk σ of excess rates of return. This estimate is critical to examine whether the product is commercially feasible and to define risk limits for the manager, if the product is launched. This paper proceeds to examine the solution to this problem assuming an especial form of the binomial model, in the context of the market timing structure advanced by Merton (1981. The paper shows that two variables are relevant for the solution of the proposed problem. The first, and the most relevant, is the skill level of the manager. A ore skilled manager is able to operate a less risky product with the same target excess rate of return µ. The second relevant variable is the trade-off between risk and return determined by existing investment opportunities in the market. The smaller the increases in risk exposure required to obtain an increase in excess returns, the less risky the product will be After solving the problem under specific assumptions, the paper proceeds to test empirically their validity using a representative sample of hedge funds in the Brazilian market. The empirical results strongly support the validity of the required assumptions.
Uncertainties in fatal cancer risk estimates used in radiation protection
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kai, Michiaki
1999-01-01
Although ICRP and NCRP had not described the details of uncertainties in cancer risk estimates in radiation protection, NCRP, in 1997, firstly reported the results of uncertainty analysis (NCRP No.126) and which is summarized in this paper. The NCRP report pointed out that there are following five factors which uncertainty possessing: uncertainty in epidemiological studies, in dose assessment, in transforming the estimates to risk assessment, in risk prediction and in extrapolation to the low dose/dose rate. These individual factors were analyzed statistically to obtain the relationship between the probability of cancer death in the US population and life time risk coefficient (% per Sv), which showed that, for the latter, the mean value was 3.99 x 10 -2 /Sv, median, 3.38 x 10 -2 /Sv, GSD (geometrical standard deviation), 1.83 x 10 -2 /Sv and 95% confidential limit, 1.2-8.84 x 10 -2 /Sv. The mean value was smaller than that of ICRP recommendation (5 x 10 -2 /Sv), indicating that the value has the uncertainty factor of 2.5-3. Moreover, the most important factor was shown to be the uncertainty in DDREF (dose/dose rate reduction factor). (K.H.)
Cancer risk estimation from the A-bomb survivors
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Pierce, D.A.; Vaeth, M.
1989-10-01
Generalizations regarding radiogenic cancer risks from the A-bomb survivor data of the Radiation Effects Research Foundation involve a large number of well-identified uncertainties and approximations. These include extrapolation to low doses and dose rates, projections in time, sampling variation, the quality of the data, extrapolation to other populations, and the use of simplifying conventions. This paper discusses some of these issues, with emphasis on the first three. Results are given regarding the maximum 'linear-quadratic' curvature consistent with these data, taking into account uncertainties in individual exposure estimates. Discussion is given regarding use of relative risk models and projection of lifetime risks, emphasizing results for those who were old enough at exposure to have been followed up for a major part of their lives by now, and stressing the speculative aspects of conclusions about those exposed as children. Combining these results, and brief discussion of other uncertainties itemized above, comment is made on the evolution of risk estimates over the past 15 years. (author)
Impedance ratio method for urine conductivity-invariant estimation of bladder volume
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Thomas Schlebusch
2014-09-01
Full Text Available Non-invasive estimation of bladder volume could help patients with impaired bladder volume sensation to determine the right moment for catheterisation. Continuous, non-invasive impedance measurement is a promising technology in this scenario, although influences of body posture and unknown urine conductivity limit wide clinical use today. We studied impedance changes related to bladder volume by simulation, in-vitro and in-vivo measurements with pigs. In this work, we present a method to reduce the influence of urine conductivity to cystovolumetry and bring bioimpedance cystovolumetry closer to a clinical application.
Yue, G. K.; Veiga, R. E.; Poole, L. R.; Zawodny, J. M.; Proffitt, M. H.
1994-01-01
An empirical time-series model for estimating ozone mixing ratios based on Stratospheric Aerosols and Gas Experiment II (SAGE II) monthly mean ozone data for the period October 1984 through June 1991 has been developed. The modeling results for ozone mixing ratios in the 10- to 30- km region in early months of 1993 are presented. In situ ozone profiles obtained by a dual-beam UV-absorption ozone photometer during the Stratospheric Photochemistry, Aerosols and Dynamics Expedition (SPADE) campaign, May 1-14, 1993, are compared with the model results. With the exception of two profiles at altitudes below 16 km, ozone mixing ratios derived by the model and measured by the ozone photometer are in relatively good agreement within their individual uncertainties. The identified discrepancies in the two profiles are discussed.
Estimating pediatric general anesthesia exposure: Quantifying duration and risk.
Bartels, Devan Darby; McCann, Mary Ellen; Davidson, Andrew J; Polaner, David M; Whitlock, Elizabeth L; Bateman, Brian T
2018-05-02
Understanding the duration of pediatric general anesthesia exposure in contemporary practice is important for identifying groups at risk for long general anesthesia exposures and designing trials examining associations between general anesthesia exposure and neurodevelopmental outcomes. We performed a retrospective cohort analysis to estimate pediatric general anesthesia exposure duration during 2010-2015 using the National Anesthesia Clinical Outcomes Registry. A total of 1 548 021 pediatric general anesthetics were included. Median general anesthesia duration was 57 minutes (IQR: 28-86) with 90th percentile 145 minutes. Children aged 3 hours. High ASA physical status and care at a university hospital were associated with longer exposure times. While the vast majority (94%) of children undergoing general anesthesia are exposed for risk for longer exposures. These findings may help guide the design of future trials aimed at understanding neurodevelopmental impact of prolonged exposure in these high-risk groups. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Estimating the risk of cardio vascular diseases among pakistani diabetics using uk pds risk engine
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Moazzam, A.; Amer, J.
2015-01-01
The concept of risk estimation of Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) is helpful for clinician to identifying high risk populations for their effective treatment. Latest studies recommended only initiating cardio-protective treatment in diabetic patients based on personalized CHD risk estimates so as to reduce undue harm from overly aggressive risk factor modification. The United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UK PDS) Risk Engine is a widely used tool to assess the risk of Cardio Vascular diseases (CVD) in diabetics. The literature search so far did not reveal any study of risk assessment among Pakistani Diabetics. Methods: This descriptive study is based on the data of 470 type-2 diabetics seen in Department of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Services Institute of Medical Sciences, Lahore during 2011. The data of these 470 patients was analyzed through UKPDS Risk Engine. CHD risk was calculated. Results: The 10 years risk of CHD, fatal CHD, stroke and fatal stroke was 9.4%, 4.4%, 1.7% and 0.2% respectively. Conclusions: The present study show a lower risk of CVD occurring among Pakistani diabetics as compared to studies from western countries. (author)
Cao, Bibo; Li, Chuan; Liu, Yan; Zhao, Yue; Sha, Jian; Wang, Yuqiu
2015-05-01
Because water quality monitoring sections or sites could reflect the water quality status of rivers, surface water quality management based on water quality monitoring sections or sites would be effective. For the purpose of improving water quality of rivers, quantifying the contribution ratios of pollutant resources to a specific section is necessary. Because physical and chemical processes of nutrient pollutants are complex in water bodies, it is difficult to quantitatively compute the contribution ratios. However, water quality models have proved to be effective tools to estimate surface water quality. In this project, an enhanced QUAL2Kw model with an added module was applied to the Xin'anjiang Watershed, to obtain water quality information along the river and to assess the contribution ratios of each pollutant source to a certain section (the Jiekou state-controlled section). Model validation indicated that the results were reliable. Then, contribution ratios were analyzed through the added module. Results show that among the pollutant sources, the Lianjiang tributary contributes the largest part of total nitrogen (50.43%), total phosphorus (45.60%), ammonia nitrogen (32.90%), nitrate (nitrite + nitrate) nitrogen (47.73%), and organic nitrogen (37.87%). Furthermore, contribution ratios in different reaches varied along the river. Compared with pollutant loads ratios of different sources in the watershed, an analysis of contribution ratios of pollutant sources for each specific section, which takes the localized chemical and physical processes into consideration, was more suitable for local-regional water quality management. In summary, this method of analyzing the contribution ratios of pollutant sources to a specific section based on the QUAL2Kw model was found to support the improvement of the local environment.
Future flood risk estimates along the river Rhine
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
A. H. te Linde
2011-02-01
Full Text Available In Europe, water management is moving from flood defence to a risk management approach, which takes both the probability and the potential consequences of flooding into account. It is expected that climate change and socio-economic development will lead to an increase in flood risk in the Rhine basin. To optimize spatial planning and flood management measures, studies are needed that quantify future flood risks and estimate their uncertainties. In this paper, we estimated the current and future fluvial flood risk in 2030 for the entire Rhine basin in a scenario study. The change in value at risk is based on two land-use projections derived from a land-use model representing two different socio-economic scenarios. Potential damage was calculated by a damage model, and changes in flood probabilities were derived from two climate scenarios and hydrological modeling. We aggregated the results into seven sections along the Rhine. It was found that the annual expected damage in the Rhine basin may increase by between 54% and 230%, of which the major part (~ three-quarters can be accounted for by climate change. The highest current potential damage can be found in the Netherlands (110 billion €, compared with the second (80 billion € and third (62 billion € highest values in two areas in Germany. Results further show that the area with the highest fluvial flood risk is located in the Lower Rhine in Nordrhein-Westfalen in Germany, and not in the Netherlands, as is often perceived. This is mainly due to the higher flood protection standards in the Netherlands as compared to Germany.
A new approach for the analysis of facial growth and age estimation: Iris ratio.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Carlos Eduardo Palhares Machado
Full Text Available The study of facial growth is explored in many fields of science, including anatomy, genetics, and forensics. In the field of forensics, it acts as a valuable tool for combating child pornography. The present research proposes a new method, based on relative measurements and fixed references of the human face-specifically considering measurements of the diameter of the iris (iris ratio-for the analysis of facial growth in association with age in children and sub-adults. The experimental sample consisted of digital photographs of 1000 Brazilian subjects, aged between 6 and 22 years, distributed equally by sex and divided into five specific age groups (6, 10, 14, 18, and 22 year olds ± one month. The software package SAFF-2D® (Forensic Facial Analysis System, Brazilian Federal Police, Brazil was used for positioning 11 landmarks on the images. Ten measurements were calculated and used as fixed references to evaluate the growth of the other measurements for each age group, as well the accumulated growth (6-22 years old. The Intraclass Correlation Coefficient (ICC was applied for the evaluation of intra-examiner and inter-examiner reliability within a specific set of images. Pearson's Correlation Coefficient was used to assess the association between each measurement taken and the respective age groups. ANOVA and Post-hoc Tukey tests were used to search for statistical differences between the age groups. The outcomes indicated that facial structures grow with different timing in children and adolescents. Moreover, the growth allometry expressed in this study may be used to understand what structures have more or less proportional variation in function for the age ranges studied. The diameter of the iris was found to be the most stable measurement compared to the others and represented the best cephalometric measurement as a fixed reference for facial growth ratios (or indices. The method described shows promising potential for forensic
Seismic Risk Assessment and Loss Estimation for Tbilisi City
Tsereteli, Nino; Alania, Victor; Varazanashvili, Otar; Gugeshashvili, Tengiz; Arabidze, Vakhtang; Arevadze, Nika; Tsereteli, Emili; Gaphrindashvili, Giorgi; Gventcadze, Alexander; Goguadze, Nino; Vephkhvadze, Sophio
2013-04-01
The proper assessment of seismic risk is of crucial importance for society protection and city sustainable economic development, as it is the essential part to seismic hazard reduction. Estimation of seismic risk and losses is complicated tasks. There is always knowledge deficiency on real seismic hazard, local site effects, inventory on elements at risk, infrastructure vulnerability, especially for developing countries. Lately great efforts was done in the frame of EMME (earthquake Model for Middle East Region) project, where in the work packages WP1, WP2 , WP3 and WP4 where improved gaps related to seismic hazard assessment and vulnerability analysis. Finely in the frame of work package wp5 "City Scenario" additional work to this direction and detail investigation of local site conditions, active fault (3D) beneath Tbilisi were done. For estimation economic losses the algorithm was prepared taking into account obtained inventory. The long term usage of building is very complex. It relates to the reliability and durability of buildings. The long term usage and durability of a building is determined by the concept of depreciation. Depreciation of an entire building is calculated by summing the products of individual construction unit' depreciation rates and the corresponding value of these units within the building. This method of calculation is based on an assumption that depreciation is proportional to the building's (constructions) useful life. We used this methodology to create a matrix, which provides a way to evaluate the depreciation rates of buildings with different type and construction period and to determine their corresponding value. Finally loss was estimated resulting from shaking 10%, 5% and 2% exceedance probability in 50 years. Loss resulting from scenario earthquake (earthquake with possible maximum magnitude) also where estimated.
[Triglycerides/HDL-cholesterol ratio: in adolescents without cardiovascular risk factors].
Soutelo, Jimena; Graffigna, Mabel; Honfi, Margarita; Migliano, Marta; Aranguren, Marcela; Proietti, Adrian; Musso, Carla; Berg, Gabriela
2012-06-01
Triglycerides/HDL-cholesterol ratio (TG/HDL) is an easy resource determination and it has good correlation with the HOMA index in adults. Due to physiological insulin resistance (IR) in adolescence it is necessary to find markers of IR independent of age, sex and pubertal stage. The objective was to identify reference values of TG/HDL ratio in a population of adolescents without cardiovascular risk factors. We evaluated 943 adolescents, 429 females and 514 males between 11 and 14. Anthropometric measures were determined and body mass index was calculated (BMI). Blood was extracted after 12 hours of fasting to determine glucose, triglycerides, HDL. The metabolic syndrome (MS) was diagnosed according to criteria of NCEP/ATP III modified by Cook. We excluded adolescents with MS or any component of it. We evaluated 562 adolescents (289 women and 273 men) with a weight of 48.91 +/- 6.51kg, BMI: 18.95 +/- 1.78, systolic blood pressure of 108.12 +/- 13.60 mmHg, diastolic blood pressure: 63.82 +/- 9.43 and waist circumference: 65.09 +/- 4.54 cm. TG/HDL ratio was 1.25 +/- 0.43, with a 95 percentile of 2.05. In adults, TG/HDL ratio greater than 3 is a marker of insulin resistance. We believe that a higher value to 2.05 might be a good index of insulin resistance in adolescence. TG/HDL ratio has the advantage of being methodologically simpler, more economical and independent of pubertal stage.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yeong Mi Park
2017-03-01
Full Text Available Hypertension is a complex disease explained with diverse factors including environmental factors and genetic factors. The objectives of this study were to determine the interaction effects between gene variants and 24 h estimated urinary sodium and potassium excretion and sodium-potassium excretion ratios on the risk of hypertension. A total of 8839 participants were included in the genome-wide association study (GWAS to find genetic factors associated with hypertension. Tanaka and Kawasaki formulas were applied to estimate 24 h urinary sodium and potassium excretion. A total of 4414 participants were included in interaction analyses to identify the interaction effects of gene variants according to 24 h estimated urinary factors on the risk of hypertension. CSK rs1378942 and CSK-MIR4513 rs3784789 were significantly modified by urinary sodium-potassium excretion ratio. In addition, MKLN rs1643270 with urinary potassium excretion, LOC101929750 rs7554672 with urinary sodium and potassium excretion, and TENM4 rs10466739 with urinary sodium-potassium excretion ratio showed significant interaction effects. The present study results indicated that the mutant alleles of CSK rs1378942 and CSK-MIR4513 rs3784789 had the strongest protective effects against hypertension in the middle group of 24 h estimated urinary sodium-potassium excretion ratio. Further studies are needed to replicate these analyses in other populations.
Measurement of total risk of spontaneous abortion: the virtue of conditional risk estimation
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Modvig, J; Schmidt, L; Damsgaard, M T
1990-01-01
The concepts, methods, and problems of measuring spontaneous abortion risk are reviewed. The problems touched on include the process of pregnancy verification, the changes in risk by gestational age and maternal age, and the presence of induced abortions. Methods used in studies of spontaneous...... abortion risk include biochemical assays as well as life table technique, although the latter appears in two different forms. The consequences of using either of these are discussed. It is concluded that no study design so far is appropriate for measuring the total risk of spontaneous abortion from early...... conception to the end of the 27th week. It is proposed that pregnancy may be considered to consist of two or three specific periods and that different study designs should concentrate on measuring the conditional risk within each period. A careful estimate using this principle leads to an estimate of total...
A new approach for the analysis of facial growth and age estimation: Iris ratio
Machado, Carlos Eduardo Palhares; Flores, Marta Regina Pinheiro; Lima, Laíse Nascimento Correia; Tinoco, Rachel Lima Ribeiro; Bezerra, Ana Cristina Barreto; Evison, Martin Paul; Guimarães, Marco Aurélio
2017-01-01
The study of facial growth is explored in many fields of science, including anatomy, genetics, and forensics. In the field of forensics, it acts as a valuable tool for combating child pornography. The present research proposes a new method, based on relative measurements and fixed references of the human face—specifically considering measurements of the diameter of the iris (iris ratio)—for the analysis of facial growth in association with age in children and sub-adults. The experimental sample consisted of digital photographs of 1000 Brazilian subjects, aged between 6 and 22 years, distributed equally by sex and divided into five specific age groups (6, 10, 14, 18, and 22 year olds ± one month). The software package SAFF-2D® (Forensic Facial Analysis System, Brazilian Federal Police, Brazil) was used for positioning 11 landmarks on the images. Ten measurements were calculated and used as fixed references to evaluate the growth of the other measurements for each age group, as well the accumulated growth (6–22 years old). The Intraclass Correlation Coefficient (ICC) was applied for the evaluation of intra-examiner and inter-examiner reliability within a specific set of images. Pearson’s Correlation Coefficient was used to assess the association between each measurement taken and the respective age groups. ANOVA and Post-hoc Tukey tests were used to search for statistical differences between the age groups. The outcomes indicated that facial structures grow with different timing in children and adolescents. Moreover, the growth allometry expressed in this study may be used to understand what structures have more or less proportional variation in function for the age ranges studied. The diameter of the iris was found to be the most stable measurement compared to the others and represented the best cephalometric measurement as a fixed reference for facial growth ratios (or indices). The method described shows promising potential for forensic applications
Gao, Haibo; Chen, Chao; Ding, Liang; Li, Weihua; Yu, Haitao; Xia, Kerui; Liu, Zhen
2017-11-01
Wheeled mobile robots (WMRs) often suffer from the longitudinal slipping when moving on the loose soil of the surface of the moon during exploration. Longitudinal slip is the main cause of WMRs' delay in trajectory tracking. In this paper, a nonlinear extended state observer (NESO) is introduced to estimate the longitudinal velocity in order to estimate the slip ratio and the derivative of the loss of velocity which are used in modelled disturbance compensation. Owing to the uncertainty and disturbance caused by estimation errors, a multi-objective controller using the mixed H2/H∞ method is employed to ensure the robust stability and performance of the WMR system. The final inputs of the trajectory tracking consist of the feedforward compensation, compensation for the modelled disturbances and designed multi-objective control inputs. Finally, the simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness of the controller, which exhibits a satisfactory tracking performance.
A case-control study estimating accident risk for alcohol, medicines and illegal drugs.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Kim Paula Colette Kuypers
Full Text Available The aim of the present study was to assess the risk of having a traffic accident after using alcohol, single drugs, or a combination, and to determine the concentrations at which this risk is significantly increased.A population-based case-control study was carried out, collecting whole blood samples of both cases and controls, in which a number of drugs were detected. The risk of having an accident when under the influence of drugs was estimated using logistic regression adjusting for gender, age and time period of accident (cases/sampling (controls. The main outcome measures were odds ratio (OR for accident risk associated with single and multiple drug use. In total, 337 cases (negative: 176; positive: 161 and 2726 controls (negative: 2425; positive: 301 were included in the study.Main findings were that 1 alcohol in general (all the concentrations together caused an elevated crash risk; 2 cannabis in general also caused an increase in accident risk; at a cut-off of 2 ng/mL THC the risk of having an accident was four times the risk associated with the lowest THC concentrations; 3 when ranking the adjusted OR from lowest to highest risk, alcohol alone or in combination with other drugs was related to a very elevated crash risk, with the highest risk for stimulants combined with sedatives.The study demonstrated a concentration-dependent crash risk for THC positive drivers. Alcohol and alcohol-drug combinations are by far the most prevalent substances in drivers and subsequently pose the largest risk in traffic, both in terms of risk and scope.
Mitavskiy, Boris; Cannings, Chris
2009-01-01
The evolutionary algorithm stochastic process is well-known to be Markovian. These have been under investigation in much of the theoretical evolutionary computing research. When the mutation rate is positive, the Markov chain modeling of an evolutionary algorithm is irreducible and, therefore, has a unique stationary distribution. Rather little is known about the stationary distribution. In fact, the only quantitative facts established so far tell us that the stationary distributions of Markov chains modeling evolutionary algorithms concentrate on uniform populations (i.e., those populations consisting of a repeated copy of the same individual). At the same time, knowing the stationary distribution may provide some information about the expected time it takes for the algorithm to reach a certain solution, assessment of the biases due to recombination and selection, and is of importance in population genetics to assess what is called a "genetic load" (see the introduction for more details). In the recent joint works of the first author, some bounds have been established on the rates at which the stationary distribution concentrates on the uniform populations. The primary tool used in these papers is the "quotient construction" method. It turns out that the quotient construction method can be exploited to derive much more informative bounds on ratios of the stationary distribution values of various subsets of the state space. In fact, some of the bounds obtained in the current work are expressed in terms of the parameters involved in all the three main stages of an evolutionary algorithm: namely, selection, recombination, and mutation.
Estimating amplitude ratios in boundary layer stability theory: a comparison between two approaches
Govindarajan, Rama; Narasimha, R.
2001-07-01
We first demonstrate that, if the contributions of higher-order mean flow are ignored, the parabolized stability equations (Bertolotti et al. 1992) and the ‘full’ non-parallel equation of Govindarajan & Narasimha (1995, hereafter GN95) are both equivalent to order R[minus sign]1 in the local Reynolds number R to Gaster's (1974) equation for the stability of spatially developing boundary layers. It is therefore of some concern that a detailed comparison between Gaster (1974) and GN95 reveals a small difference in the computed amplitude ratios. Although this difference is not significant in practical terms in Blasius flow, it is traced here to the approximation, in Gaster's method, of neglecting the change in eigenfunction shape due to flow non-parallelism. This approximation is not justified in the critical and the wall layers, where the neglected term is respectively O(R[minus sign]2/3) and O(R[minus sign]1) compared to the largest term. The excellent agreement of GN95 with exact numerical simulations, on the other hand, suggests that the effect of change in eigenfunction is accurately taken into account in that paper.
Estimating twin concordance for bivariate competing risks twin data
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Scheike, Thomas; Holst, Klaus K.; Hjelmborg, Jacob B.
2014-01-01
For twin time-to-event data, we consider different concordance probabilities, such as the casewise concordance that are routinely computed as a measure of the lifetime dependence/correlation for specific diseases. The concordance probability here is the probability that both twins have experience...... events with the competing risk death. We thus aim to quantify the degree of dependence through the casewise concordance function and show a significant genetic component...... the event of interest. Under the assumption that both twins are censored at the same time, we show how to estimate this probability in the presence of right censoring, and as a consequence, we can then estimate the casewise twin concordance. In addition, we can model the magnitude of within pair dependence...... over time, and covariates may be further influential on the marginal risk and dependence structure. We establish the estimators large sample properties and suggest various tests, for example, for inferring familial influence. The method is demonstrated and motivated by specific twin data on cancer...
Estimation of unit risk for coke oven emissions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Moolgavkar, S.H.; Luebeck, E.G.; Anderson, E.L.
1998-01-01
In 1984, based on epidemiological data on cohorts of coke oven workers, USEPA estimated a unit risk for lung cancer associated with continuous exposure from birth to 1 microg/m 3 of coke oven emissions, of 6.2 x 10 -4 . This risk assessment was based on information on the cohorts available through 1966. Follow-up of these cohorts has now been extended to 1982 and, moreover, individual job histories, which were not available in 1984, have been constructed. In this study, lung cancer mortality in these cohorts of coke oven workers with extended follow-up was analyzed using standard techniques of survival analysis and a new approach based on the two stage clonal expansion model of carcinogenesis. The latter approach allows the explicit consideration of detailed patterns of exposure of each individual in the cohort. The analyses used the extended follow-up data through 1982 and the detailed job histories now available. Based on these analyses, the best estimate of unit risk is 1.5 x 10 -4 with 95% confidence interval = 1.2 x 10 -4 --1.8 x 10 -4
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Lu Liping
2011-01-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Obesity is associated with metabolic risk factors. Body mass index (BMI, waist circumference, waist-hip ratio (WHR and waist-height ratio (WHtR are used to predict the risk of obesity related diseases. However, it has not been examined whether these four indicators can detect the clustering of metabolic risk factors in Chinese subjects. Methods There are 772 Chinese subjects in the present study. Metabolic risk factors including high blood pressure, dyslipidemia, and glucose intolerance were identified according to the criteria from WHO. All statistical analyses were performed separately according to sex by using the SPSS 12.0. Results BMI, waist circumference and WHtR values were all significantly associated with blood pressure, glucose, triglyceride and also with the number of metabolic risk factors in both male and female subjects (all of P Conclusion The BMI, waist circumference and WHtR values can similarly predict the presence of multiple metabolic risk factors in Chinese subjects.
van Walraven, Carl; McAlister, Finlay A
2016-01-01
Risk estimates from Kaplan-Meier curves are well known to medical researchers, reviewers, and editors. In this study, we determined the proportion of Kaplan-Meier analyses published in prominent medical journals that are potentially biased because of competing events ("competing risk bias"). We randomly selected 100 studies that had at least one Kaplan-Meier analysis and were recently published in prominent medical journals. Susceptibility to competing risk bias was determined by examining the outcome and potential competing events. In susceptible studies, bias was quantified using a previously validated prediction model when the number of outcomes and competing events were given. Forty-six studies (46%) contained Kaplan-Meier analyses susceptible to competing risk bias. Sixteen studies (34.8%) susceptible to competing risk cited the number of outcomes and competing events; in six of these studies (6/16, 37.5%), the outcome risk from the Kaplan-Meier estimate (relative to the true risk) was biased upward by 10% or more. Almost half of Kaplan-Meier analyses published in medical journals are susceptible to competing risk bias and may overestimate event risk. This bias was found to be quantitatively important in a third of such studies. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Sun, Kangfeng; Ji, Fenzhu; Yan, Xiaoyu; Jiang, Kai; Yang, Shichun
2018-01-01
As NOx emissions legislation for Diesel-engines is becoming more stringent than ever before, an aftertreatment system has been widely used in many countries. Specifically, to reduce the NOx emissions, a selective catalytic reduction(SCR) system has become one of the most promising techniques for Diesel-engine vehicle applications. In the SCR system, input ammonia concentration and ammonia coverage ratio are regarded as essential states in the control-oriental model. Currently, an ammonia sensor placed before the SCR Can is a good strategy for the input ammonia concentration value. However, physical sensor would increase the SCR system cost and the ammonia coverage ratio information cannot be directly measured by physical sensor. Aiming to tackle this problem, an observer based on particle filter(PF) is investigated to estimate the input ammonia concentration and ammonia coverage ratio. Simulation results through the experimentally-validated full vehicle simulator cX-Emission show that the performance of observer based on PF is outstanding, and the estimation error is very small.
Global building inventory for earthquake loss estimation and risk management
Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David; Porter, Keith
2010-01-01
We develop a global database of building inventories using taxonomy of global building types for use in near-real-time post-earthquake loss estimation and pre-earthquake risk analysis, for the U.S. Geological Survey’s Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) program. The database is available for public use, subject to peer review, scrutiny, and open enhancement. On a country-by-country level, it contains estimates of the distribution of building types categorized by material, lateral force resisting system, and occupancy type (residential or nonresidential, urban or rural). The database draws on and harmonizes numerous sources: (1) UN statistics, (2) UN Habitat’s demographic and health survey (DHS) database, (3) national housing censuses, (4) the World Housing Encyclopedia and (5) other literature.
The model-based estimates of important cancer risk factors and screening behaviors are obtained by combining the responses to the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) and the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS).
ALESSI LUCIA; CANNAS GIUSEPPINA; DI GIROLAMO FRANCESCA; OSSOLA ELISA; PAPANAGIOTOU EVANGELIA; PETRACCO GIUDICI Marco; ROSSI EDUARDO
2016-01-01
The Fundamental Review of the Trading Book (FRTB) introduces changes in capital requirements as a consequence of changes in the calculation of risk weighted assets (RWAs), as agreed in the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. This report performs an ex-ante assessment of the benefits of this new legislative proposal and is included as an annex to the Impact Assessment of the Capital Requirement Regulation II (CRR II). The analysis is conducted by estimating the required variation in ban...
[Ionizing and non-ionizing radiation (comparative risk estimations)].
Grigor'ev, Iu G
2012-01-01
The population has widely used mobile communication for already more than 15 years. It is important to note that the use of mobile communication has sharply changed the conditions of daily exposure of the population to EME We expose our brain daily for the first time in the entire civilization. The mobile phone is an open and uncontrollable source of electromagnetic radiation. The comparative risk estimation for the population of ionizing and non-ionizing radiation was carried out taking into account the real conditions of influence. Comparison of risks for the population of ionizing and non-ionizing radiation leads us to a conclusion that EMF RF exposure in conditions of wide use of mobile communication is potentially more harmful than ionizing radiation influence.
Espelt, Albert; Marí-Dell'Olmo, Marc; Penelo, Eva; Bosque-Prous, Marina
2016-06-14
To examine the differences between Prevalence Ratio (PR) and Odds Ratio (OR) in a cross-sectional study and to provide tools to calculate PR using two statistical packages widely used in substance use research (STATA and R). We used cross-sectional data from 41,263 participants of 16 European countries participating in the Survey on Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE). The dependent variable, hazardous drinking, was calculated using the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test - Consumption (AUDIT-C). The main independent variable was gender. Other variables used were: age, educational level and country of residence. PR of hazardous drinking in men with relation to women was estimated using Mantel-Haenszel method, log-binomial regression models and poisson regression models with robust variance. These estimations were compared to the OR calculated using logistic regression models. Prevalence of hazardous drinkers varied among countries. Generally, men have higher prevalence of hazardous drinking than women [PR=1.43 (1.38-1.47)]. Estimated PR was identical independently of the method and the statistical package used. However, OR overestimated PR, depending on the prevalence of hazardous drinking in the country. In cross-sectional studies, where comparisons between countries with differences in the prevalence of the disease or condition are made, it is advisable to use PR instead of OR.
Estimating Worker Risk Levels Using Accident/Incident Data
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kenoyer, Judson L.; Stenner, Robert D.; Andrews, William B.; Scherpelz, Robert I.; Aaberg, Rosanne L.
2000-09-26
The purpose of the work described in this report was to identify methods that are currently being used in the Department of Energy (DOE) complex to identify and control hazards/risks in the workplace, evaluate them in terms of their effectiveness in reducing risk to the workers, and to develop a preliminary method that could be used to predict the relative risks to workers performing proposed tasks using some of the current methodology. This report describes some of the performance indicators (i.e., safety metrics) that are currently being used to track relative levels of workplace safety in the DOE complex, how these fit into an Integrated Safety Management (ISM) system, some strengths and weaknesses of using a statistically based set of indicators, and methods to evaluate them. Also discussed are methods used to reduce risk to the workers and some of the techniques that appear to be working in the process of establishing a condition of continuous improvement. The results of these methods will be used in future work involved with the determination of modifying factors for a more complex model. The preliminary method to predict the relative risk level to workers during an extended future time period is based on a currently used performance indicator that uses several factors tracked in the CAIRS. The relative risks for workers in a sample (but real) facility on the Hanford site are estimated for a time period of twenty years and are based on workforce predictions. This is the first step in developing a more complex model that will incorporate other modifying factors related to the workers, work environment and status of the ISM system to adjust the preliminary prediction.
Estimation of radiation cancer risk in CT-KUB
Karim, M. K. A.; Hashim, S.; Bakar, K. A.; Bradley, D. A.; Ang, W. C.; Bahrudin, N. A.; Mhareb, M. H. A.
2017-08-01
The increased demand for computed tomography (CT) in radiological scanning examinations raises the question of a potential health impact from the associated radiation exposures. Focusing on CT kidney-ureter-bladder (CT-KUB) procedures, this work was aimed at determining organ equivalent dose using a commercial CT dose calculator and providing an estimate of cancer risks. The study, which included 64 patients (32 males and 32 females, mean age 55.5 years and age range 30-80 years), involved use of a calibrated CT scanner (Siemens-Somatom Emotion 16-slice). The CT exposures parameter including tube potential, pitch factor, tube current, volume CT dose index (CTDIvol) and dose-length product (DLP) were recorded and analyzed using CT-EXPO (Version 2.3.1, Germany). Patient organ doses, including for stomach, liver, colon, bladder, red bone marrow, prostate and ovaries were calculated and converted into cancer risks using age- and sex-specific data published in the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation (BEIR) VII report. With a median value scan range of 36.1 cm, the CTDIvol, DLP, and effective dose were found to be 10.7 mGy, 390.3 mGy cm and 6.2 mSv, respectively. The mean cancer risks for males and females were estimated to be respectively 25 and 46 out of 100,000 procedures with effective doses between 4.2 mSv and 10.1 mSv. Given the increased cancer risks from current CT-KUB procedures compared to conventional examinations, we propose that the low dose protocols for unenhanced CT procedures be taken into consideration before establishing imaging protocols for CT-KUB.
Estimated risks and optimistic self-perception of breast cancer risk in Korean women.
Chung, ChaeWeon; Lee, Suk Jeong
2013-11-01
To determine women's perceived personal and comparative risks of breast cancer, and to examine the relationships with risk factors. Despite the increasing incidence of breast cancer in younger women and the availability of screening, women's health behaviors have not advanced accordingly. A cross-sectional survey design utilized a convenience sample of 222 women in their 30s and 40s recruited from community settings in Seoul. Self-administered questionnaire data were analyzed by descriptive statistics, the chi-squared test, and ANOVA. Risk perception levels differed significantly by breast cancer risk factors. Half of the women were optimistic about their breast cancer risk, while perceived personal risk did not reflect women's own risk factors and comparative risk differed only by the practice of clinical breast exam. Women's knowledge and awareness of their breast cancer risk factors need to be improved for appropriate risk perception and health behaviors, and accurate risk estimation could be utilized to educate them in clinical settings. © 2013.
Estimation of value at risk and conditional value at risk using normal mixture distributions model
Kamaruzzaman, Zetty Ain; Isa, Zaidi
2013-04-01
Normal mixture distributions model has been successfully applied in financial time series analysis. In this paper, we estimate the return distribution, value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR) for monthly and weekly rates of returns for FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (FBMKLCI) from July 1990 until July 2010 using the two component univariate normal mixture distributions model. First, we present the application of normal mixture distributions model in empirical finance where we fit our real data. Second, we present the application of normal mixture distributions model in risk analysis where we apply the normal mixture distributions model to evaluate the value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR) with model validation for both risk measures. The empirical results provide evidence that using the two components normal mixture distributions model can fit the data well and can perform better in estimating value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR) where it can capture the stylized facts of non-normality and leptokurtosis in returns distribution.
Dikmen, Erkan; Ayaz, Mahir; Gül, Doğan; Şahin, Arzu Şencan
2017-07-01
The determination of drying behavior of herbal plants is a complex process. In this study, gene expression programming (GEP) model was used to determine drying behavior of herbal plants as fresh sweet basil, parsley and dill leaves. Time and drying temperatures are input parameters for the estimation of moisture ratio of herbal plants. The results of the GEP model are compared with experimental drying data. The statistical values as mean absolute percentage error, root-mean-squared error and R-square are used to calculate the difference between values predicted by the GEP model and the values actually observed from the experimental study. It was found that the results of the GEP model and experimental study are in moderately well agreement. The results have shown that the GEP model can be considered as an efficient modelling technique for the prediction of moisture ratio of herbal plants.
Ruilope, Luis M; Zanchetti, Alberto; Julius, Stevo; McInnes, Gordon T; Segura, Julian; Stolt, Pelle; Hua, Tsushung A; Weber, Michael A; Jamerson, Ken
2007-07-01
Reduced renal function is predictive of poor cardiovascular outcomes but the predictive value of different measures of renal function is uncertain. We compared the value of estimated creatinine clearance, using the Cockcroft-Gault formula, with that of estimated glomerular filtration rate (GFR), using the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) formula, as predictors of cardiovascular outcome in 15 245 high-risk hypertensive participants in the Valsartan Antihypertensive Long-term Use Evaluation (VALUE) trial. For the primary end-point, the three secondary end-points and for all-cause death, outcomes were compared for individuals with baseline estimated creatinine clearance and estimated GFR or = 60 ml/min using hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals. Coronary heart disease, left ventricular hypertrophy, age, sex and treatment effects were included as covariates in the model. For each end-point considered, the risk in individuals with poor renal function at baseline was greater than in those with better renal function. Estimated creatinine clearance (Cockcroft-Gault) was significantly predictive only of all-cause death [hazard ratio = 1.223, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.076-1.390; P = 0.0021] whereas estimated GFR was predictive of all outcomes except stroke. Hazard ratios (95% CIs) for estimated GFR were: primary cardiac end-point, 1.497 (1.332-1.682), P cause death, 1.231 (1.098-1.380), P = 0.0004. These results indicate that estimated glomerular filtration rate calculated with the MDRD formula is more informative than estimated creatinine clearance (Cockcroft-Gault) in the prediction of cardiovascular outcomes.
Kelecy, Tom; Payne, Tim; Thurston, Robin; Stansbery, Gene
2007-01-01
A population of deep space objects is thought to be high area-to-mass ratio (AMR) debris having origins from sources in the geosynchronous orbit (GEO) belt. The typical AMR values have been observed to range anywhere from 1's to 10's of m(sup 2)/kg, and hence, higher than average solar radiation pressure effects result in long-term migration of eccentricity (0.1-0.6) and inclination over time. However, the nature of the debris orientation-dependent dynamics also results time-varying solar radiation forces about the average which complicate the short-term orbit determination processing. The orbit determination results are presented for several of these debris objects, and highlight their unique and varied dynamic attributes. Estimation or the solar pressure dynamics over time scales suitable for resolving the shorter term dynamics improves the orbit estimation, and hence, the orbit predictions needed to conduct follow-up observations.
Estimates of health risk from exposure to radioactive pollutants
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sullivan, R.E.; Nelson, N.S.; Ellett, W.H.; Dunning, D.E. Jr.; Leggett, R.W.; Yalcintas, M.G.; Eckerman, K.F.
1981-11-01
A dosimetric and health effects analysis has been performed for the Office of Radiation Programs of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to assess potential hazards from radioactive pollutants. Contemporary dosimetric methods were used to obtain estimates of dose rates to reference organs from internal exposures due to either inhalation of contaminated air or ingestion of contaminated food, or from external exposures due to either immersion in contaminated air or proximity to contaminated ground surfaces. These dose rates were then used to estimate the number of premature cancer deaths arising from such exposures and the corresponding number of years of life lost in a cohort of 100,000 persons, all simultaneously liveborn and all going through life with the same risks of dying from competing causes. The risk of dying from a competing cause for a given year was taken to be the probability of dying from all causes as given in a recent actuarial life table for the total US popula six times larger than the first reservoir.onunding. Analytical work cthe Department of Energy
Yang, Ming; Zhu, X. Ronald; Park, Peter C.; Titt, Uwe; Mohan, Radhe; Virshup, Gary; Clayton, James E.; Dong, Lei
2012-07-01
The purpose of this study was to analyze factors affecting proton stopping-power-ratio (SPR) estimations and range uncertainties in proton therapy planning using the standard stoichiometric calibration. The SPR uncertainties were grouped into five categories according to their origins and then estimated based on previously published reports or measurements. For the first time, the impact of tissue composition variations on SPR estimation was assessed and the uncertainty estimates of each category were determined for low-density (lung), soft, and high-density (bone) tissues. A composite, 95th percentile water-equivalent-thickness uncertainty was calculated from multiple beam directions in 15 patients with various types of cancer undergoing proton therapy. The SPR uncertainties (1σ) were quite different (ranging from 1.6% to 5.0%) in different tissue groups, although the final combined uncertainty (95th percentile) for different treatment sites was fairly consistent at 3.0-3.4%, primarily because soft tissue is the dominant tissue type in the human body. The dominant contributing factor for uncertainties in soft tissues was the degeneracy of Hounsfield numbers in the presence of tissue composition variations. To reduce the overall uncertainties in SPR estimation, the use of dual-energy computed tomography is suggested. The values recommended in this study based on typical treatment sites and a small group of patients roughly agree with the commonly referenced value (3.5%) used for margin design. By using tissue-specific range uncertainties, one could estimate the beam-specific range margin by accounting for different types and amounts of tissues along a beam, which may allow for customization of range uncertainty for each beam direction.
Uncertainty estimation and risk prediction in air quality
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Garaud, Damien
2011-01-01
This work is about uncertainty estimation and risk prediction in air quality. Firstly, we build a multi-model ensemble of air quality simulations which can take into account all uncertainty sources related to air quality modeling. Ensembles of photochemical simulations at continental and regional scales are automatically generated. Then, these ensemble are calibrated with a combinatorial optimization method. It selects a sub-ensemble which is representative of uncertainty or shows good resolution and reliability for probabilistic forecasting. This work shows that it is possible to estimate and forecast uncertainty fields related to ozone and nitrogen dioxide concentrations or to improve the reliability of threshold exceedance predictions. The approach is compared with Monte Carlo simulations, calibrated or not. The Monte Carlo approach appears to be less representative of the uncertainties than the multi-model approach. Finally, we quantify the observational error, the representativeness error and the modeling errors. The work is applied to the impact of thermal power plants, in order to quantify the uncertainty on the impact estimates. (author) [fr
Studies on risk estimation to public from medical radiation (III)
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Lee, Hai Yong; Kim, Jong Hyung; Kim, Hyeog Ju; Kim, Ji Soon; Oh, Hyeon Joo; Kim, Cheol Hyeon; Yang, Hyun Kyu [Korea Food and Drug Administraion, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Park, Chan Il [Seoul National Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)
1998-06-01
A nationwide survey was conducted to give representative levels of effective doses to patient for 17 types of CT examination and also representative level of MGD (mean glandular dose) to standard breast for mammography X-ray equipment. The effective doses to patient from 16 CT scanners were estimated from measurement of CTDI (Computed Tomography Dose Index) in air by multiplying conversion coefficients which are specified by National Radiological Protection Board in United Kingdom. The lowest and hightest mean values of effective dose measured to patient from CT scanner were 0.05 mSv for IAM examination and 17.75 mSv for routine abdomen examination, respectively. The average values of 17 effective doses were lower than other results of foreign countrys' surveys. The mean glandular doses to a standard breast for 26 mammography units were estimated from measurement of the air kerma at the surface of a 40 mm plain Perspex phantom by applying conversion factors described in Report 59 of the Institute of Physical Sciences in Medicine of United Kingdom. The exposure factors for this measurement were those used clinically at each hospital. The average MGD to standard breast was 1.06 mGy in units with grid and 0.49 mGy in units without grid. These results are lower than guidance levels by IPSM and AAPM. These results will be used for risk estimation to the Korean public from the medical radiation.
How to Estimate Epidemic Risk from Incomplete Contact Diaries Data?
Mastrandrea, Rossana; Barrat, Alain
2016-06-01
Social interactions shape the patterns of spreading processes in a population. Techniques such as diaries or proximity sensors allow to collect data about encounters and to build networks of contacts between individuals. The contact networks obtained from these different techniques are however quantitatively different. Here, we first show how these discrepancies affect the prediction of the epidemic risk when these data are fed to numerical models of epidemic spread: low participation rate, under-reporting of contacts and overestimation of contact durations in contact diaries with respect to sensor data determine indeed important differences in the outcomes of the corresponding simulations with for instance an enhanced sensitivity to initial conditions. Most importantly, we investigate if and how information gathered from contact diaries can be used in such simulations in order to yield an accurate description of the epidemic risk, assuming that data from sensors represent the ground truth. The contact networks built from contact sensors and diaries present indeed several structural similarities: this suggests the possibility to construct, using only the contact diary network information, a surrogate contact network such that simulations using this surrogate network give the same estimation of the epidemic risk as simulations using the contact sensor network. We present and compare several methods to build such surrogate data, and show that it is indeed possible to obtain a good agreement between the outcomes of simulations using surrogate and sensor data, as long as the contact diary information is complemented by publicly available data describing the heterogeneity of the durations of human contacts.
Estimating risk using bounding calculations and limited data
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
COWLEY, W.L.
1999-01-01
This paper describes a methodology for estimating the potential risk to workers and the public from igniting organic solvents in any of the 177 underground waste storage tanks at the Hanford Site in southeastern Washington state. The Hanford Site is one of the U.S. Department of Energy's former production facilities for nuclear materials. The tanks contain mixed radioactive wastes. Risk is measured by calculating toxicological and radiological accident consequences and frequencies and comparing the results to established regulatory guidelines. Available sample data is insufficient to adequately characterize the waste and solvent, so a model that maximizes releases from the tanks (bounding case) is used. Maximizing releases (and thus consequences) is a standard technique used in safety analysis to compensate for lack of information. The model predicts bounding values of fire duration, the time at which the fire extinguishes because of lack of oxygen, and a pressure history of a fire in a tank. The model output is used to calculate mass and volume release rates of material from the tanks. The mass and volume release rates permit calculation of radiological and toxicological consequences. The resulting consequence calculations demonstrate that risk from an organic solvent fire in the tanks is within regulatory guidelines
Fatalities in high altitude mountaineering: a review of quantitative risk estimates.
Weinbruch, Stephan; Nordby, Karl-Christian
2013-12-01
Quantitative estimates for mortality in high altitude mountaineering are reviewed. Special emphasis is placed on the heterogeneity of the risk estimates and on confounding. Crude estimates for mortality are on the order of 1/1000 to 40/1000 persons above base camp, for both expedition members and high altitude porters. High altitude porters have mostly a lower risk than expedition members (risk ratio for all Nepalese peaks requiring an expedition permit: 0.73; 95 % confidence interval 0.59-0.89). The summit bid is generally the most dangerous part of an expedition for members, whereas most high altitude porters die during route preparation. On 8000 m peaks, the mortality during descent from summit varies between 4/1000 and 134/1000 summiteers (members plus porters). The risk estimates are confounded by human and environmental factors. Information on confounding by gender and age is contradictory and requires further work. There are indications for safety segregation of men and women, with women being more risk averse than men. Citizenship appears to be a significant confounder. Prior high altitude mountaineering experience in Nepal has no protective effect. Commercial expeditions in the Nepalese Himalayas have a lower mortality than traditional expeditions, though after controlling for confounding, the difference is not statistically significant. The overall mortality is increasing with increasing peak altitude for expedition members but not for high altitude porters. In the Nepalese Himalayas and in Alaska, a significant decrease of mortality with calendar year was observed. A few suggestions for further work are made at the end of the article.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Thakur, P.
2016-01-01
After almost 15 years of operations, the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) had one of its waste drums breach underground as a result of a runaway chemical reaction in the waste it contained. This incident occurred on February 14, 2014. Moderate levels of radioactivity were released into the underground air. A small portion of the contaminated underground air also escaped to the surface through the ventilation system and was detected approximately 1 km away from the facility. According to the source term estimation, the actual amount of radioactivity released from the WIPP site was less than 1.5 mCi. The highest activity detected on the surface was 115.2 μBq/m 3 for 241 Am and 10.2 μBq/m 3 for 239+240 Pu at a sampling station located 91 m away from the underground air exhaust point and 81.4 μBq/m 3 of 241 Am and 5.8 μBq/m 3 of 239+240 Pu at a monitoring station located approximately 1 km northwest of the WIPP facility. The dominant radionuclides released were americium and plutonium, in a ratio that matches the content of the breached drum. Air monitoring across the WIPP site intensified following the first reports of radiation detection underground to determine the extent of impact to WIPP personnel, the public, and the environment. In this paper, the early stage monitoring data collected by an independent monitoring program conducted by the Carlsbad Environmental Monitoring & Research Center (CEMRC) and an oversight monitoring program conducted by the WIPP's management and operating contractor, the Nuclear Waste Partnership (NWP) LLC were utilized to estimate the actual amount of radioactivity released from the WIPP underground. The Am and Pu isotope ratios were measured and used to support the hypothesis that the release came from one drum identified as having breached that represents a specific waste stream with this radionuclide ratio in its inventory. This failed drum underwent a heat and gas producing reaction that overpowered its vent and
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Por, G.
1999-08-01
A program package was developed to estimate the time dependent auto-correlation function (ACF) from the time signals of soft X-ray records taken along the various lines-of-sights in JET-SHOTS, and also to estimate the time dependent Decay Ratio (DR) from that. On the basis of ACF the time dependent auto-power spectral density (APSD) was also calculated. The steps and objectives of this work were: eliminating the white detection noise, trends and slow variation from the time signals, since ordinary methods can give good estimate of the time dependent ACF and DR only for 'nearly' stationary signals, developing an automatic algorithm for finding the maxima and minima of ACF, since they are the basis for DR estimation, evaluating and testing different DR estimators for JET-SHOT, with the aim of finding parts of the signals, where the oscillating character is strong, estimating time dependent ACF and APSD that can follow the relatively fast variation in the time signal. The methods that we have developed for data processing of transient signals are: White detection noise removal and preparation for trend removal - weak components, white detection noise and high frequency components are filtered from the signal using the so-called soft-threshold wavelet filter. Removal of trends and slow variation - Three-point differentiation of the pre-filtered signal is used to remove trends and slow variation. Here we made use of the DERIV function of IDL program language. This leads to a filtered signal that has zero mean value in each time step. Calculation of the time dependent ACF - The signal treated by the two previous steps is used as the input. Calculated ACF value is added in each new time step, but the previously accumulated ACF value is multiplied by a weighting factor. Thus the new sample has 100% contribution, while the contributions from the previous samples are forgotten quickly. DR calculation - DR is a measure of the decay of oscillating ACF. This parameter was shown
Rai, Arpita; Acharya, Ashith B; Naikmasur, Venkatesh G
2016-01-01
Age estimation of living or deceased individuals is an important aspect of forensic sciences. Conventionally, pulp-to-tooth area ratio (PTR) measured from periapical radiographs have been utilized as a nondestructive method of age estimation. Cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) is a new method to acquire three-dimensional images of the teeth in living individuals. The present study investigated age estimation based on PTR of the maxillary canines measured in three planes obtained from CBCT image data. Sixty subjects aged 20-85 years were included in the study. For each tooth, mid-sagittal, mid-coronal, and three axial sections-cementoenamel junction (CEJ), one-fourth root level from CEJ, and mid-root-were assessed. PTR was calculated using AutoCAD software after outlining the pulp and tooth. All statistical analyses were performed using an SPSS 17.0 software program. Linear regression analysis showed that only PTR in axial plane at CEJ had significant age correlation ( r = 0.32; P < 0.05). This is probably because of clearer demarcation of pulp and tooth outline at this level.
Aid decision algorithms to estimate the risk in congenital heart surgery.
Ruiz-Fernández, Daniel; Monsalve Torra, Ana; Soriano-Payá, Antonio; Marín-Alonso, Oscar; Triana Palencia, Eddy
2016-04-01
In this paper, we have tested the suitability of using different artificial intelligence-based algorithms for decision support when classifying the risk of congenital heart surgery. In this sense, classification of those surgical risks provides enormous benefits as the a priori estimation of surgical outcomes depending on either the type of disease or the type of repair, and other elements that influence the final result. This preventive estimation may help to avoid future complications, or even death. We have evaluated four machine learning algorithms to achieve our objective: multilayer perceptron, self-organizing map, radial basis function networks and decision trees. The architectures implemented have the aim of classifying among three types of surgical risk: low complexity, medium complexity and high complexity. Accuracy outcomes achieved range between 80% and 99%, being the multilayer perceptron method the one that offered a higher hit ratio. According to the results, it is feasible to develop a clinical decision support system using the evaluated algorithms. Such system would help cardiology specialists, paediatricians and surgeons to forecast the level of risk related to a congenital heart disease surgery. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
Combining ungrouped and grouped wildfire data to estimate fire risk
Hernandez-Magallanes, I.
2013-10-11
© 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Frequently, models are required to combine information obtained from different data sources and on different scales. In this work, we are interested in estimating the risk of wildfire ignition in the USA for a particular time and location by merging two levels of data, namely, individual points and aggregate count of points into areas. The data for federal lands consist of the point location and time of each fire. Nonfederal fires are aggregated by county for a particular year. The probability model is based on the wildfire point process. Assuming a smooth intensity function, a locally weighted likelihood fit is used, which incorporates the group effect. A logit model is used under the assumption of the existence of a latent process, and fuel conditions are included as a covariate. The model assessment is based on a residual analysis, while the False Discovery Rate detects spatial patterns. A benefit of the proposed model is that there is no need of arbitrary aggregation of individual fires into counts. A map of predicted probability of ignition for the Midwest US in 1990 is included. The predicted ignition probabilities and the estimated total number of expected fires are required for the allocation of resources.
Gambling disorder: estimated prevalence rates and risk factors in Macao.
Wu, Anise M S; Lai, Mark H C; Tong, Kwok-Kit
2014-12-01
An excessive, problematic gambling pattern has been regarded as a mental disorder in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual for Mental Disorders (DSM) for more than 3 decades (American Psychiatric Association [APA], 1980). In this study, its latest prevalence in Macao (one of very few cities with legalized gambling in China and the Far East) was estimated with 2 major changes in the diagnostic criteria, suggested by the 5th edition of DSM (APA, 2013): (a) removing the "Illegal Act" criterion, and (b) lowering the threshold for diagnosis. A random, representative sample of 1,018 Macao residents was surveyed with a phone poll design in January 2013. After the 2 changes were adopted, the present study showed that the estimated prevalence rate of gambling disorder was 2.1% of the Macao adult population. Moreover, the present findings also provided empirical support to the application of these 2 recommended changes when assessing symptoms of gambling disorder among Chinese community adults. Personal risk factors of gambling disorder, namely being male, having low education, a preference for casino gambling, as well as high materialism, were identified.
Arum, Richard; LaFree, Gary
2008-01-01
Little is known about the relationship between school characteristics, such as teacher-student ratios, and the risk of incarceration in adulthood. Educational skeptics argue that investment in schools has little effect on outcomes, such as criminality or the risk of incarceration, because criminal propensities are fixed at an early age and…
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
M. Shao
2011-05-01
_{4}, CHCl_{3}, CH_{3}Br, and CH_{3}Cl, were also estimated. Where possible, the emissions estimated from the measured ratios were compared with results from source inventory techniques, we found that both approaches gave emissions at similar magnitude for most of the halocarbons, except CFC-11. The comparison suggested that the ratio method may be a useful tool for assessing regional halocarbon emissions, and emission uncertainty could be further reduced by incorporating both longer-term and higher-frequency observations, as well as improving the accuracy of the CO inventory.
Dongwoo Jang; Gyewoon Choi
2017-01-01
The non-revenue water (NRW) ratio in a water distribution system is the ratio of the loss due to unbilled authorized consumption, apparent losses and real losses to the overall system input volume (SIV). The method of estimating the NRW ratio by measurement might not work in an area with no district metered areas (DMAs) or with unclear administrative district. Through multiple regression analyses is a statistical analysis method for calculating the NRW ratio using the main parameters of the w...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Rongda Chen
2014-01-01
Full Text Available Based on the actual situation of China's stock market, this paper proposes a method for measuring the stock market's risk and early-warning methods which are based on price-to-earnings ratio and price-to-book ratio. The study found that the method of VaR can capture the bigger daily drops in a period, and if the drop is at the periodical top of the index, the probability of a sharp index decline will be very high. It also confirmed that the method is feasible and practical for people to use. In the long run, this method really can send early-warning signals of sharp decline; the warning levels increase as the index rises. The study also found that index will not fall after every warning but will continue going forward because of inertia, particularly during a big trend.
Kaasenbrood, Lotte; Boekholdt, S. Matthijs; van der Graaf, Yolanda; Ray, Kausik K.; Peters, Ron J. G.; Kastelein, John J. P.; Amarenco, Pierre; LaRosa, John C.; Cramer, Maarten J. M.; Westerink, Jan; Kappelle, L. Jaap; de Borst, Gert J.; Visseren, Frank L. J.
2016-01-01
Among patients with clinically manifest vascular disease, the risk of recurrent vascular events is likely to vary. We assessed the distribution of estimated 10-year risk of recurrent vascular events in a secondary prevention population. We also estimated the potential risk reduction and residual
Kaasenbrood, Lotte; Boekholdt, S. Matthijs; Van Der Graaf, Yolanda; Ray, Kausik K.; Peters, Ron J G; Kastelein, John J P; Amarenco, Pierre; Larosa, John C.; Cramer, Maarten J M; Westerink, Jan; Kappelle, L. Jaap; De Borst, Gert J.; Visseren, Frank L J
2016-01-01
Background: Among patients with clinically manifest vascular disease, the risk of recurrent vascular events is likely to vary. We assessed the distribution of estimated 10-year risk of recurrent vascular events in a secondary prevention population. We also estimated the potential risk reduction and
Jafaruddin; Indratno, Sapto W; Nuraini, Nuning; Supriatna, Asep K; Soewono, Edy
2015-01-01
Estimating the basic reproductive ratio ℛ 0 of dengue fever has continued to be an ever-increasing challenge among epidemiologists. In this paper we propose two different constructions to estimate ℛ 0 which is derived from a dynamical system of host-vector dengue transmission model. The construction is based on the original assumption that in the early states of an epidemic the infected human compartment increases exponentially at the same rate as the infected mosquito compartment (previous work). In the first proposed construction, we modify previous works by assuming that the rates of infection for mosquito and human compartments might be different. In the second construction, we add an improvement by including more realistic conditions in which the dynamics of an infected human compartments are intervened by the dynamics of an infected mosquito compartment, and vice versa. We apply our construction to the real dengue epidemic data from SB Hospital, Bandung, Indonesia, during the period of outbreak Nov. 25, 2008-Dec. 2012. We also propose two scenarios to determine the take-off rate of infection at the beginning of a dengue epidemic for construction of the estimates of ℛ 0: scenario I from equation of new cases of dengue with respect to time (daily) and scenario II from equation of new cases of dengue with respect to cumulative number of new cases of dengue. The results show that our first construction of ℛ 0 accommodates the take-off rate differences between mosquitoes and humans. Our second construction of the ℛ 0 estimation takes into account the presence of infective mosquitoes in the early growth rate of infective humans and vice versa. We conclude that the second approach is more realistic, compared with our first approach and the previous work.
Risk Estimates and Risk Factors Related to Psychiatric Inpatient Suicide—An Overview
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Trine Madsen
2017-03-01
Full Text Available People with mental illness have an increased risk of suicide. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of suicide risk estimates among psychiatric inpatients based on the body of evidence found in scientific peer-reviewed literature; primarily focusing on the relative risks, rates, time trends, and socio-demographic and clinical risk factors of suicide in psychiatric inpatients. Psychiatric inpatients have a very high risk of suicide relative to the background population, but it remains challenging for clinicians to identify those patients that are most likely to die from suicide during admission. Most studies are based on low power, thus compromising quality and generalisability. The few studies with sufficient statistical power mainly identified non-modifiable risk predictors such as male gender, diagnosis, or recent deliberate self-harm. Also, the predictive value of these predictors is low. It would be of great benefit if future studies would be based on large samples while focusing on modifiable predictors over the course of an admission, such as hopelessness, depressive symptoms, and family/social situations. This would improve our chances of developing better risk assessment tools.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jacob, P.; Kaiser, J. C.; Vavilov, S.E.; Bogdanova, T.; Tronko, N. D.
2004-01-01
Simulation calculations are performed in order to explore the ecological bias in studies as they are performed with settlement specific data in the aftemath of the Chernobyl accident. Based on methods, that were developed by Lubin for exploring the ecologic bias due to smoking in indoor radon studies of lung cancer, the influence of the introduction of ultrasound devices and enhanced medical surveillance on the detection and reporting of thyroid cancer cases was investigated. Calculations were performed by simulating thyroid doses of one million children in a total of 744 settlements and assuming a linear dependence of the risk on dose and various scenarios of the screening. The dose distributions simulate the distributions similar to those used in previous ecologic studies of the thyroid cancer risk in Ukraine after the Chernobyl accident. The ecologic bias was defined as the ratio of risk coefficients derived from an ecological study to the corresponding risk factor in the underlying risl model. the ecologic bias was estimated for each of the screening scenarios. Analytical equations were derived that allow the exact numerical compuation of the bias which is determined by covariance terms between the increased detection and reporting on one side and thyroid dose values (individual and averaged for the settlements) on the other side. Nested in th epopulation data, a cohort study was simulated with 10 000 individuals and an average thyroid dose of 0.3 Gy. the present study underlines the different scopes of the ecologic and cohort study designs perfomed in the aftermed of the Chernobyl accident. Whereas the ecologic studies give an estimate of the excess thyroid cancer risks per unit dose under the conditions of a health care system as it is typical for the affected countries after the Chernobyl accident, the cohort study gives risk estimates within a well screened cohort. Due to the strong screening effects, excess absoulte risks in the ecological study cohort are
Bennett, Kevin J; Dismuke, Clara E
2010-05-01
High out-of-pocket expenditures for health care can put individuals and families at financial risk. Several groups, including racial/ethnic minority groups, the uninsured, rural residents, and those in poorer health are at risk for this increased burden. The analysis utilized 2004-2005 MEPS data. The dependent variables were the out-of-pocket health care spending to total income ratios for total spending, office-based visits, and prescription drugs. Multivariate analyses with instrumental variables controlled for respondent characteristics. Gender, age, rurality, insurance coverage, health status, and health care utilization were all associated with higher out-of-pocket to income ratios. Certain groups, such as women, the elderly, those in poor health, and rural residents, are at a greater financial risk due to their higher out-of-pocket to total income spending ratios. Policymakers must be aware of these increased risks in order to provide adequate resources and targeted interventions to alleviate some of this burden.
Study and Estimation of the Ratio of 137CS and 40K Specific Activities in Sandy and Loam Soils
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Renata Mikalauskienė
2011-12-01
Full Text Available The present article describes changes in specific activities and fluctuations in the ratio of natural 40K and artificial 137Cs radionuclides in soil samples taken from different places of Lithuanian territory. The samples of soil have been selected from the districts polluted after the accident in Chernobyl nuclear plant performing nuclear testing operations. The study has established the main physical and chemical properties of soil samples and their impact on the concentration of 40K activities. 137Cs/40K specific activities in soil have been observed under the dry weight of the sample that varied from 0.0034 to 0.0240. The results of the study could be used for establishing and estimating 137Cs and 40K transfer in the system “soil-plant”.Article in Lithuanian
Bilastine: a new antihistamine with an optimal benefit-to-risk ratio for safety during driving.
Jáuregui, Ignacio; Ramaekers, Johannes G; Yanai, Kazuhiko; Farré, Magí; Redondo, Esther; Valiente, Román; Labeaga, Luis
2016-01-01
Rational selection of a second-generation H1-antihistamine requires efficacy and safety considerations, particularly regarding central nervous system (CNS) effects (cognitive and psychomotor function), potential for driving impairment, minimal sedative effects and a lack of interactions. This review evaluates the key safety features of the non-sedating antihistamine, bilastine, during driving and in preventing road traffic accidents. Among the second-generation H1-antihistamines, sedative effects which can affect cognitive and psychomotor performance, and possibly driving ability, may not be similar. Bilastine is absorbed rapidly, undergoes no hepatic metabolism or cytochrome P450 interaction (minimal drug-drug interaction potential), and is a substrate for P-glycoprotein (limiting CNS entry). Positron emission tomography showed that, compared with other second-generation H1-antihistamines, bilastine has the lowest cerebral histamine H1-receptor occupancy. Bilastine 20 mg once daily (therapeutic dose) is non-sedating, does not enhance the effects of alcohol or CNS sedatives, does not impair driving performance and has at least similar efficacy as other second-generation H1-antihistamines in the treatment of allergic rhinoconjunctivitis and urticaria. Current evidence shows that bilastine has an optimal benefit-to-risk ratio, meeting all conditions for contributing to safety in drivers who need antihistamines, and hence for being considered as an antihistamine of choice for drivers.
Li, Bicen; Xu, Pengmei; Hou, Lizhou; Wang, Caiqin
2017-10-01
Taking the advantages of high spectral resolution, high sensitivity and wide spectral coverage, space borne Fourier transform infrared spectrometer (FTS) plays more and more important role in atmospheric composition sounding. The combination of solar occultation and FTS technique improves the sensitivity of instrument. To achieve both high spectral resolution and high signal to noise ratio (SNR), reasonable allocation and optimization for instrument parameters are the foundation and difficulty. The solar occultation FTS (SOFTS) is a high spectral resolution (0.03 cm-1) FTS operating from 2.4 to 13.3 μm (750-4100cm-1), which will determine the altitude profile information of typical 10-100km for temperature, pressure, and the volume mixing ratios for several dozens of atmospheric compositions. As key performance of SOFTS, SNR is crucially important to high accuracy retrieval of atmospheric composition, which is required to be no less than 100:1 at the radiance of 5800K blackbody. Based on the study of various parameters and its interacting principle, according to interference theory and operation principle of time modulated FTS, a simulation model of FTS SNR has been built, which considers satellite orbit, spectral radiometric features of sun and atmospheric composition, optical system, interferometer and its control system, measurement duration, detector sensitivity, noise of detector and electronic system and so on. According to the testing results of SNR at the illuminating of 1000 blackbody, the on-orbit SNR performance of SOFTS is estimated, which can meet the mission requirement.
Soil-ecological risks for soil degradation estimation
Trifonova, Tatiana; Shirkin, Leonid; Kust, German; Andreeva, Olga
2016-04-01
Soil degradation includes the processes of soil properties and quality worsening, primarily from the point of view of their productivity and decrease of ecosystem services quality. Complete soil cover destruction and/or functioning termination of soil forms of organic life are considered as extreme stages of soil degradation, and for the fragile ecosystems they are normally considered in the network of their desertification, land degradation and droughts /DLDD/ concept. Block-model of ecotoxic effects, generating soil and ecosystem degradation, has been developed as a result of the long-term field and laboratory research of sod-podzol soils, contaminated with waste, containing heavy metals. The model highlights soil degradation mechanisms, caused by direct and indirect impact of ecotoxicants on "phytocenosis- soil" system and their combination, frequently causing synergistic effect. The sequence of occurring changes here can be formalized as a theory of change (succession of interrelated events). Several stages are distinguished here - from heavy metals leaching (releasing) in waste and their migration downward the soil profile to phytoproductivity decrease and certain phytocenosis composition changes. Phytoproductivity decrease leads to the reduction of cellulose content introduced into the soil. The described feedback mechanism acts as a factor of sod-podzolic soil self-purification and stability. It has been shown, that using phytomass productivity index, integrally reflecting the worsening of soil properties complex, it is possible to solve the problems dealing with the dose-reflecting reactions creation and determination of critical levels of load for phytocenosis and corresponding soil-ecological risks. Soil-ecological risk in "phytocenosis- soil" system means probable negative changes and the loss of some ecosystem functions during the transformation process of dead organic substance energy for the new biomass composition. Soil-ecological risks estimation is
Simon, M.; Dolinar, S.
2005-08-01
A means is proposed for realizing the generalized split-symbol moments estimator (SSME) of signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), i.e., one whose implementation on the average allows for a number of subdivisions (observables), 2L, per symbol beyond the conventional value of two, with other than an integer value of L. In theory, the generalized SSME was previously shown to yield optimum performance for a given true SNR, R, when L=R/sqrt(2) and thus, in general, the resulting estimator was referred to as the fictitious SSME. Here we present a time-multiplexed version of the SSME that allows it to achieve its optimum value of L as above (to the extent that it can be computed as the average of a sum of integers) at each value of SNR and as such turns fiction into non-fiction. Also proposed is an adaptive algorithm that allows the SSME to rapidly converge to its optimum value of L when in fact one has no a priori information about the true value of SNR.
Tranter, W. H.; Turner, M. D.
1977-01-01
Techniques are developed to estimate power gain, delay, signal-to-noise ratio, and mean square error in digital computer simulations of lowpass and bandpass systems. The techniques are applied to analog and digital communications. The signal-to-noise ratio estimates are shown to be maximum likelihood estimates in additive white Gaussian noise. The methods are seen to be especially useful for digital communication systems where the mapping from the signal-to-noise ratio to the error probability can be obtained. Simulation results show the techniques developed to be accurate and quite versatile in evaluating the performance of many systems through digital computer simulation.
Obesity phenotype and coronary heart disease risk as estimated by the Framingham risk score.
Park, Yong Soon; Kim, Jun-Su
2012-03-01
There are conflicting data as to whether general or abdominal obesity is a better predictor of cardiovascular risk. This cross-sectional study involved 4,573 subjects aged 30 to 74 yr who participated in the Fourth Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey conducted in 2008. Obesity phenotype was classified by means of body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC), and participants were categorized into 4 groups. Individuals' 10-yr risk of coronary heart diseases (CHD) was determined from the Framingham risk score. Subjects with obese WC had a higher proportion of high risk for CHD compared to the normal WC group, irrespective of BMI level. Relative to subjects with normal BMI/normal WC, the adjusted odds ratios (ORs) of normal BMI/obese WC group (OR 2.93 [1.70, 5.04] and OR 3.10 [1.49, 6.46]) for CHD risk in male were higher than obese BMI/obese WC group (OR 1.91 [1.40, 2.61] and OR 1.70 [1.16, 2.47]), whereas the adjusted ORs of obese BMI/obese WC group (OR 1.94 [1.24, 3.04] and OR 3.92 [1.75, 8.78]) were higher than the others in female. Subjects with obese BMI/normal WC were not significantly associated with 10-yr CHD risk in men (P = 0.449 and P = 0.067) and women (P = 0.702 and P = 0.658). WC is associated with increased CHD risk regardless of the level of BMI. Men with normal BMI and obese WC tend to be associated with CHD risk than those with obese BMI and obese WC.
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Abha Rani Aggarwal
2015-03-01
Full Text Available Background: Maternal Mortality Ratio (MMR is an important indicator of reproductive health and its reduction remains a challenge in India. Aims &Objective: This study was conducted with the aim of estimating MMR in two states Orissa and Rajasthan having high MMR as well as to identify the associated medical causes of maternal mortality. Material Methods: This survey was conducted from October 2010-June 2012 on a sample of 13 Primary Health Centres (PHCs in Orissa and 15 PHCs in Rajasthan. These numbers have been derived after estimating the total number of live births using MMR and birth rate from Sample Registration System. 1997-2003.An adapted snowball technique was adopted wherein maternal deaths were captured by snowball technique and the numbers of live births were taken from the available records from the various health facilities in the study. Results: The overall birth rate in Orissa was found to be 19 per 1000 population while in Rajasthan it was 24 per 1000 population. The study revealed that 17% additional maternal deaths could be captured by snowball technique as against the official record. The overall weighted estimate of MMR was 252 per one lakh live births (95% CI: 246-259 per 1,00,000 live births in Orissa and 209 per one lakh live births (95% CI: 207-211 per one lakh live births in Rajasthan. The main causes of maternal deaths were post-partum haemorrhage, anaemia and septicaemia. More than 25% maternal deaths could be attributed to indirect causes including suicide, accident and infectious diseases. Conclusion: There appears to be a positive trend towards reduction of maternal mortality in Orissa and Rajasthan. Greater care is essential to reduce medical as well as incidental causes of death during pregnancy.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Abha Rani Aggarwal
2015-03-01
Full Text Available Background: Maternal Mortality Ratio (MMR is an important indicator of reproductive health and its reduction remains a challenge in India. Aims &Objective: This study was conducted with the aim of estimating MMR in two states Orissa and Rajasthan having high MMR as well as to identify the associated medical causes of maternal mortality. Material Methods: This survey was conducted from October 2010-June 2012 on a sample of 13 Primary Health Centres (PHCs in Orissa and 15 PHCs in Rajasthan. These numbers have been derived after estimating the total number of live births using MMR and birth rate from Sample Registration System. 1997-2003.An adapted snowball technique was adopted wherein maternal deaths were captured by snowball technique and the numbers of live births were taken from the available records from the various health facilities in the study. Results: The overall birth rate in Orissa was found to be 19 per 1000 population while in Rajasthan it was 24 per 1000 population. The study revealed that 17% additional maternal deaths could be captured by snowball technique as against the official record. The overall weighted estimate of MMR was 252 per one lakh live births (95% CI: 246-259 per 1,00,000 live births in Orissa and 209 per one lakh live births (95% CI: 207-211 per one lakh live births in Rajasthan. The main causes of maternal deaths were post-partum haemorrhage, anaemia and septicaemia. More than 25% maternal deaths could be attributed to indirect causes including suicide, accident and infectious diseases. Conclusion: There appears to be a positive trend towards reduction of maternal mortality in Orissa and Rajasthan. Greater care is essential to reduce medical as well as incidental causes of death during pregnancy.
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Richard Ronay
2018-03-01
Full Text Available Using a recently developed alternative assay procedure to measure hormone levels from hair samples, we examined the relationships between testosterone, cortisol, 2D:4D ratio, overconfidence and risk taking. A total of 162 (53 male participants provided a 3 cm sample of hair, a scanned image of their right and left hands from which we determined 2D:4D ratios, and completed measures of overconfidence and behavioral risk taking. While our sample size for males was less than ideal, our results revealed no evidence for a relationship between hair testosterone concentrations, 2D:4D ratios and risk taking. No relationships with overconfidence emerged. Partially consistent with the Dual Hormone Hypothesis, we did find evidence for the interacting effect of testosterone and cortisol on risk taking but only in men. Hair testosterone concentrations were positively related to risk taking when levels of hair cortisol concentrations were low, in men. Our results lend support to the suggestion that endogenous testosterone and 2D:4D ratio are unrelated and might then exert diverging activating vs. organizing effects on behavior. Comparing our results to those reported in the existing literature we speculate that behavioral correlates of testosterone such as direct effects on risk taking may be more sensitive to state-based fluctuations than baseline levels of testosterone.
Estimation of risk map for cohort study of Hiroshima atomic bomb survivors. 1970-2010
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Tonda, Tetsuji; Satoh, Kenichi; Otani, Keiko; Sato, Yuya; Maruyama, Hirofomi; Kawakami, Hideshi; Tashiro, Satoshi; Hoshi, Masaharu; Ohtaki, Megu
2012-01-01
A risk map (map I) involving the effects of direct A-bomb exposure and of other confounding factors was estimated to analyze the death risk in the geographic distribution, and another risk map (map II) was also made by subtracting the direct exposure effect to see the confounder effect. The cohort was 37,382/157,327 survivors at Jan. 1, 1970, whose positional coordinates at the exposure were known, and was followed up until Dec. 31, 2009. For survival analysis, the endpoint was defined to be death (total 19,119) by regarding other 18,263 as censoring. Confounding factors were sex, age at the exposure, exposed dose and shielded condition. Maps I and II were depicted using the hazard ratio at the exposed position relative to the hypocenter, which was estimated by previously reported hazard model functions. Map I was found to be rather similar to concentric circle of the hypocenter, but to be tended a bit distorted toward northwest area. The distortion was clearer in the map II, indicating that death causes other than direct exposure existed. The confounder was thought to be the indirect exposure through the black rain, residual radiation and/or internal exposure, which awaiting future investigation. (T.T.)
Samat, N. A.; Ma'arof, S. H. Mohd Imam
2015-05-01
Disease mapping is a method to display the geographical distribution of disease occurrence, which generally involves the usage and interpretation of a map to show the incidence of certain diseases. Relative risk (RR) estimation is one of the most important issues in disease mapping. This paper begins by providing a brief overview of Chikungunya disease. This is followed by a review of the classical model used in disease mapping, based on the standardized morbidity ratio (SMR), which we then apply to our Chikungunya data. We then fit an extension of the classical model, which we refer to as a Poisson-Gamma model, when prior distributions for the relative risks are assumed known. Both results are displayed and compared using maps and we reveal a smoother map with fewer extremes values of estimated relative risk. The extensions of this paper will consider other methods that are relevant to overcome the drawbacks of the existing methods, in order to inform and direct government strategy for monitoring and controlling Chikungunya disease.
Risk estimation of radiation exposure in early pregnancy
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Neumeister, K.; Waesser, S.
1977-01-01
The biomedical effects of radiation exposure (occupational, by X-ray diagnosis or examinations in nuclear medicine) to low doses on early pregnancy have been subject of a research work dealing with the dose level which, in case of exceeding, may lead to somatic damage (1.5 to 10 rem), and with the type of radiation injuries (malformations, functional disorder, cancer induction, increase in morbidity rate, genetic damage). A pilot study was the basis for the programme which will record such cases from all over the GDR. Within the scope of the health centre at the National Board of Nuclear Safety and Radiation Protection of the GDR, medical opinion on the interruption or preservation of pregnancy at its early stage, after exposure, was delivered in more than 50 cases. Exposure of the foetus was exactly determined. These children were re-investigated at the age of 1 to 3 years by applying pediatric and genetic examinations. The latter were based on clinical and biochemical methods as well as chromosome analyses. From these results, the risk of exposure in early pregnancy is estimated and adequate dose limits are suggested. In case these limits are exceeded, an interruption should be advised
Matte, Simon; Boucher, Marie-Amélie; Boucher, Vincent; Fortier Filion, Thomas-Charles
2017-06-01
A large effort has been made over the past 10 years to promote the operational use of probabilistic or ensemble streamflow forecasts. Numerous studies have shown that ensemble forecasts are of higher quality than deterministic ones. Many studies also conclude that decisions based on ensemble rather than deterministic forecasts lead to better decisions in the context of flood mitigation. Hence, it is believed that ensemble forecasts possess a greater economic and social value for both decision makers and the general population. However, the vast majority of, if not all, existing hydro-economic studies rely on a cost-loss ratio framework that assumes a risk-neutral decision maker. To overcome this important flaw, this study borrows from economics and evaluates the economic value of early warning flood systems using the well-known Constant Absolute Risk Aversion (CARA) utility function, which explicitly accounts for the level of risk aversion of the decision maker. This new framework allows for the full exploitation of the information related to a forecasts' uncertainty, making it especially suited for the economic assessment of ensemble or probabilistic forecasts. Rather than comparing deterministic and ensemble forecasts, this study focuses on comparing different types of ensemble forecasts. There are multiple ways of assessing and representing forecast uncertainty. Consequently, there exist many different means of building an ensemble forecasting system for future streamflow. One such possibility is to dress deterministic forecasts using the statistics of past error forecasts. Such dressing methods are popular among operational agencies because of their simplicity and intuitiveness. Another approach is the use of ensemble meteorological forecasts for precipitation and temperature, which are then provided as inputs to one or many hydrological model(s). In this study, three concurrent ensemble streamflow forecasting systems are compared: simple statistically dressed
Afshari, Mahdi; Janbabaei, Ghasem; Bahrami, Mohammad Amin; Moosazadeh, Mahmood
2017-01-01
The association between opium use and bladder cancer has been investigated in many studies, with varying reporting results reported. This study aims to estimate the total odds ratio for the association between bladder cancer and opium consumption using meta-analysis. The study was designed according to PRISMA guidelines. Two independent researchers searched for the relevant studies using PubMed, Web of Science, Scopus, OVID, Embase, and Google Scholar. After systematic screening of the studies identified during the first step, Cochrane risk of bias tool was determined for the selected studies. The case-control and the cohort studies were investigated to assess risk of bladder cancer due to opium use. In addition, the cross-sectional studies were analysed separately to assess frequency of opium consumption. These estimates were combined using the inverse variance method. Fixed or random effect models were applied to combine the point odds ratios. The heterogeneity between the primary results was assessed using the Cochran test and I-square index. The suspected factors for heterogeneity were investigated using meta-regression models. An Egger test was conducted to identify any probable publication bias. Forest plots illustrated the point and pooled estimates. All analyses were performed using Stata version 14 software and RevMan version 5.3. We included 17 primary studies (11 case-control, one cohort and five cross-sectional) in the final meta-analysis. The total odds ratios (95% confidence intervals) for developing bladder cancer by opium use alone, and concurrent use of opium and cigarettes were estimated as 3.85 (3.05-4.87) and 5.7 (1.9-16.3) respectively. The odds ratio (95% confidence interval) for opium use with or without cigarette smoking was estimated as 5.3 (3.6-7.7). This meta-analysis showed that opium use similar to cigarette smoking and maybe with similar mechanisms can be a risk factor for bladder cancer. It is therefore expected to be a risk factor
Limb/trunk lean mass ratio as a risk factor for mortality in peritoneal dialysis patients
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Seok Hui Kang
2012-06-01
Full Text Available Protein energy wasting (PEW is a common problem in dialysis patients. There have been few reports on the effects of regional lean mass distribution for peritoneal dialysis (PD patients. We reviewed the medical records and identified all adults who received PD between May 2001 and May 2011. Five hundred thirty four patients were enrolled. The clinical and laboratory data were collected at 1 and 12 months. Regional lean masses were measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. The limb/trunk lean mass ratio (LTLM was defined as a value on dividing the sum of four limbs by the trunk lean mass. The mean age at the start of PD was 53.2±14.1 years. Diabetes mellitus (DM was most common underlying disease of end-stage renal disease (49.6%. In males, the low LTLM tertile was associated with low body mass index, creatinine, arm muscle circumference, and high C-reactive protein. In females, the low LTLM tertile was associated with low creatinine and normalized protein equivalent of nitrogen appearance. On both univariate and multivariate analysis adjusted for age, Davies risk index, and residual renal function, initial low LTLM tertile and maintenance of low LTLM were associated with mortality in PD patients. Distribution or change of regional lean mass may be more useful for predicting nutritional status. Initial low LTLM and maintenance of low LTLM were associated with mortality in PD patients. LTLM as a new marker would be useful for predicting the nutritional status and the mortality in patients on PD.
Spencer, Timothy R; Mahoney, Keegan J
2017-11-01
In vascular access practices, the internal vessel size is considered important, and a catheter to vessel ratio (CVR) is recommended to assist clinicians in selecting the most appropriate-sized device for the vessel. In 2016, new practice recommendations stated that the CVR can increase from 33 to 45% of the vessels diameter. There has been evidence on larger diameter catheters and increased thrombosis risk in recent literature, while insufficient information established on what relationship to vessel size is appropriate for any intra-vascular device. Earlier references to clinical standards and guidelines did not clearly address vessel size in relation to the area consumed or external catheter diameter. The aim of this manuscript is to present catheter-related thrombosis evidence and develop a standardized process of ultrasound-guided vessel assessment, integrating CVR, Virchow's triad phenomenon and vessel health and preservation strategies, empowering an evidence-based approach to device placement. Through review, calculation and assessment on the areas of the 33 and 45% rule, a preliminary clinical tool was developed to assist clinicians make cognizant decisions when placing intravascular devices relating to target vessel size, focusing on potential reduction in catheter-related thrombosis. Increasing the understanding and utilization of CVRs will lead to a safer, more consistent approach to device placement, with potential thrombosis reduction strategies. The future of evidence-based data relies on the clinician to capture accurate vessel measurements and device-related outcomes. This will lead to a more dependable data pool, driving the relationship of catheter-related thrombosis and vascular assessment.
Age- and Tumor Subtype-Specific Breast Cancer Risk Estimates for CHEK2*1100delC Carriers
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Schmidt, Marjanka K; Hogervorst, Frans; van Hien, Richard R
2016-01-01
PURPOSE: CHEK2*1100delC is a well-established breast cancer risk variant that is most prevalent in European populations; however, there are limited data on risk of breast cancer by age and tumor subtype, which limits its usefulness in breast cancer risk prediction. We aimed to generate tumor...... subtype- and age-specific risk estimates by using data from the Breast Cancer Association Consortium, including 44,777 patients with breast cancer and 42,997 controls from 33 studies genotyped for CHEK2*1100delC. PATIENTS AND METHODS: CHEK2*1100delC genotyping was mostly done by a custom Taqman assay....... Breast cancer odds ratios (ORs) for CHEK2*1100delC carriers versus noncarriers were estimated by using logistic regression and adjusted for study (categorical) and age. Main analyses included patients with invasive breast cancer from population- and hospital-based studies. RESULTS: Proportions...
Badra, Mohammad; Mehio-Sibai, Abla; Zeki Al-Hazzouri, Adina; Abou Naja, Hala; Baliki, Ghassan; Salamoun, Mariana; Afeiche, Nadim; Baddoura, Omar; Bulos, Suhayl; Haidar, Rachid; Lakkis, Suhayl; Musharrafieh, Ramzi; Nsouli, Afif; Taha, Assaad; Tayim, Ahmad; El-Hajj Fuleihan, Ghada
2009-01-01
Bone mineral density (BMD) and fracture incidence vary greatly worldwide. The data, if any, on clinical and densitometric characteristics of patients with hip fractures from the Middle East are scarce. The objective of the study was to define risk estimates from clinical and densitometric variables and the impact of database selection on such estimates. Clinical and densitometric information were obtained in 60 hip fracture patients and 90 controls. Hip fracture subjects were 74 yr (9.4) old, were significantly taller, lighter, and more likely to be taking anxiolytics and sleeping pills than controls. National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) database selection resulted in a higher sensitivity and almost equal specificity in identifying patients with a hip fracture compared with the Lebanese database. The odds ratio (OR) and its confidence interval (CI) for hip fracture per standard deviation (SD) decrease in total hip BMD was 2.1 (1.45-3.05) with the NHANES database, and 2.11 (1.36-2.37) when adjusted for age and body mass index (BMI). Risk estimates were higher in male compared with female subjects. In Lebanese subjects, BMD- and BMI-derived hip fracture risk estimates are comparable to western standards. The study validates the universal use of the NHANES database, and the applicability of BMD- and BMI-derived risk fracture estimates in the World Health Organization (WHO) global fracture risk model, to the Lebanese.
Ruf, B.; Erdnuess, B.; Weinmann, M.
2017-08-01
With the emergence of small consumer Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), the importance and interest of image-based depth estimation and model generation from aerial images has greatly increased in the photogrammetric society. In our work, we focus on algorithms that allow an online image-based dense depth estimation from video sequences, which enables the direct and live structural analysis of the depicted scene. Therefore, we use a multi-view plane-sweep algorithm with a semi-global matching (SGM) optimization which is parallelized for general purpose computation on a GPU (GPGPU), reaching sufficient performance to keep up with the key-frames of input sequences. One important aspect to reach good performance is the way to sample the scene space, creating plane hypotheses. A small step size between consecutive planes, which is needed to reconstruct details in the near vicinity of the camera may lead to ambiguities in distant regions, due to the perspective projection of the camera. Furthermore, an equidistant sampling with a small step size produces a large number of plane hypotheses, leading to high computational effort. To overcome these problems, we present a novel methodology to directly determine the sampling points of plane-sweep algorithms in image space. The use of the perspective invariant cross-ratio allows us to derive the location of the sampling planes directly from the image data. With this, we efficiently sample the scene space, achieving higher sampling density in areas which are close to the camera and a lower density in distant regions. We evaluate our approach on a synthetic benchmark dataset for quantitative evaluation and on a real-image dataset consisting of aerial imagery. The experiments reveal that an inverse sampling achieves equal and better results than a linear sampling, with less sampling points and thus less runtime. Our algorithm allows an online computation of depth maps for subsequences of five frames, provided that the relative
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B. Ruf
2017-08-01
Full Text Available With the emergence of small consumer Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs, the importance and interest of image-based depth estimation and model generation from aerial images has greatly increased in the photogrammetric society. In our work, we focus on algorithms that allow an online image-based dense depth estimation from video sequences, which enables the direct and live structural analysis of the depicted scene. Therefore, we use a multi-view plane-sweep algorithm with a semi-global matching (SGM optimization which is parallelized for general purpose computation on a GPU (GPGPU, reaching sufficient performance to keep up with the key-frames of input sequences. One important aspect to reach good performance is the way to sample the scene space, creating plane hypotheses. A small step size between consecutive planes, which is needed to reconstruct details in the near vicinity of the camera may lead to ambiguities in distant regions, due to the perspective projection of the camera. Furthermore, an equidistant sampling with a small step size produces a large number of plane hypotheses, leading to high computational effort. To overcome these problems, we present a novel methodology to directly determine the sampling points of plane-sweep algorithms in image space. The use of the perspective invariant cross-ratio allows us to derive the location of the sampling planes directly from the image data. With this, we efficiently sample the scene space, achieving higher sampling density in areas which are close to the camera and a lower density in distant regions. We evaluate our approach on a synthetic benchmark dataset for quantitative evaluation and on a real-image dataset consisting of aerial imagery. The experiments reveal that an inverse sampling achieves equal and better results than a linear sampling, with less sampling points and thus less runtime. Our algorithm allows an online computation of depth maps for subsequences of five frames, provided that
Danjou, Aurélie M N; Fervers, Béatrice; Boutron-Ruault, Marie-Christine; Philip, Thierry; Clavel-Chapelon, Françoise; Dossus, Laure
2015-03-17
Dioxins are environmental and persistent pollutants mostly emitted from combustion facilities (e.g. waste incinerators, metal and cement industries). Known to be endocrine disrupting chemicals, dioxins are suspected to increase breast cancer (BC) risk. Although diet is considered the primary source of dioxin exposure, no previous study has been published on dietary dioxin exposure in relation to BC risk. We aimed to assess dietary dioxin exposure among women from the E3N cohort and estimate BC risk associated with this exposure. The study included 63,830 women from the E3N cohort who completed a diet history questionnaire (DHQ) in 1993 and were followed until 2008. Dietary dioxin exposure was estimated by combining consumption data from the E3N DHQ and food dioxin contamination data from a French national monitoring program. Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated by Cox models adjusted for BC risk factors. Mean dietary dioxin exposure was estimated at 1.3 ± 0.4 pg/kg body weight (BW)/day. A 0.4 pg/kg BW/d increase in dioxin intake was not associated with overall BC risk (HR = 1.00; 95% CI: 0.96, 1.05). A significant decrease in risk of estrogen receptor negative (ER-)/progesterone receptor negative (PR-) tumors was observed among post-menopausal women in the upper quartile of estimated dioxin intake (HR for Q4 vs. Q1: 0.65; 95% CI: 0.45, 0.96; P for trend across quartiles = 0.0463). Overall, no association between estimated dietary dioxin exposure and BC risk was found among E3N women. Further studies should include both dietary and environmental exposures to determine whether low-dose dioxin exposure is associated with BC risk.
This model-based approach uses data from both the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) and the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) to produce estimates of the prevalence rates of cancer risk factors and screening behaviors at the state, health service area, and county levels.
Held, A. A.; Steduto, P.; Orgaz, F.; Matista, A.; Hsiao, T. C.
1990-12-01
This paper describes a Bowen ratio/energy balance (BREB) system which, in conjunction with an infra-red gas analyzer (IRGA), is referred to as BREB+ and is used to estimate evapotranspiration ( ET) and net CO2 flux ( NCF) over crop canopies. The system is composed of a net radiometer, soil heat flux plates, two psychrometers based on platinum resistance thermometers (PRT), bridge circuits to measure resistances, an IRGA, air pumps and switching valves, and a data logger. The psychrometers are triple shielded and aspirated, and with aspiration also between the two inner shields. High resistance (1 000 ohm) PRT's are used for dry and wet bulbs to minimize errors due to wiring and connector resistances. A high (55 K ohm) fixed resistance serves as one arm of the resistance bridge to ensure linearity in output signals. To minimize gaps in data, to allow measurements at short (e.g., 5 min) intervals, and to simplify operation, the psychrometers were fixed at their upper and lower position over the crop and not alternated. Instead, the PRT's, connected to the bridge circuit and the data logger, were carefully calibrated together. Field tests using a common air source showed appartent effects of the local environment around each psychrometer on the temperatures measured. ET rates estimated with the BREB system were compared to those measured with large lysimeters. Daily totals agreed within 5%. There was a tendency, however, for the lysimeter measurements to lag behind the BREB measurements. Daily patterns of NCF estimated with the BREB+ system are consistent with expectations from theories and data in the literature. Side-by-side comparisons with a stirred Mylar canopy chamber showed similar NCF patterns. On the other hand, discrepancies between the results of the two methods were quite marked in the morning or afternoon on certain dates. Part of the discrepancies may be attributed to inaccuracies in the psychrometric temperature measurements. Other possible causes
Xu, Xu Steven; Yuan, Min; Yang, Haitao; Feng, Yan; Xu, Jinfeng; Pinheiro, Jose
2017-01-01
Covariate analysis based on population pharmacokinetics (PPK) is used to identify clinically relevant factors. The likelihood ratio test (LRT) based on nonlinear mixed effect model fits is currently recommended for covariate identification, whereas individual empirical Bayesian estimates (EBEs) are considered unreliable due to the presence of shrinkage. The objectives of this research were to investigate the type I error for LRT and EBE approaches, to confirm the similarity of power between the LRT and EBE approaches from a previous report and to explore the influence of shrinkage on LRT and EBE inferences. Using an oral one-compartment PK model with a single covariate impacting on clearance, we conducted a wide range of simulations according to a two-way factorial design. The results revealed that the EBE-based regression not only provided almost identical power for detecting a covariate effect, but also controlled the false positive rate better than the LRT approach. Shrinkage of EBEs is likely not the root cause for decrease in power or inflated false positive rate although the size of the covariate effect tends to be underestimated at high shrinkage. In summary, contrary to the current recommendations, EBEs may be a better choice for statistical tests in PPK covariate analysis compared to LRT. We proposed a three-step covariate modeling approach for population PK analysis to utilize the advantages of EBEs while overcoming their shortcomings, which allows not only markedly reducing the run time for population PK analysis, but also providing more accurate covariate tests.
Dell, C. J.; Groffman, P. M.; Strickland, T.; Kleinman, P. J. A.; Bosch, D. D.; Bryant, R.
2015-12-01
Denitrification results in a significant loss of plant-available nitrogen from agricultural systems and contributes to climate change, due to the emissions of both the potent greenhouse gas nitrous oxide (N2O) and environmentally benign dinitrogen (N2). However total quantities of the gases emitted and the ratio of N2:N2O are often not clearly understood, because N2 emissions cannot be directly measured in the field because of the high background level of N2 in the atmosphere. While variability in soil conditions across landscapes, especially water content and aeration, is believed to greatly impact both total denitrification rates and N2:N2O, the measurement limitations have prevented a clear understanding of landscape-scale emissions of denitrification products. The Cary Institute has developed an approach where soil core are maintained in a sealed system with an N2-free airstream, allowing emitted N2 and N2O emissions to be measured without interference from atmospheric N2. Emissions of the gases are measured under a range of oxygen concentrations and soil water contents. Laboratory responses can then be correlated with measured field conditions at the sampling points and resulting emission estimates extrapolated to the field-scale. Measurements are currently being conducted on peanut/cotton rotations, dairy forage rotations (silage corn/alfalfa), and bioenergy crops (switchgrass and miscanthus) at Long Term Agricultural Research (LTAR) sites at Tifton, GA and University Park, PA.
Chou, Yu-Ching; Kuan, Jen-Chun; Bai, Chyi-Huey; Yang, Tsan; Chou, Wan-Yun; Hsieh, Po-Chien; You, San-Lin; Hwang, Lee-Ching; Chen, Chien-Hua; Wei, Cheng-Yu; Sun, Chien-An
2015-06-01
The purpose of this study was to evaluate whether the apolipoprotein B/apolipoprotein A-I (apoB/apoA-I) ratio is a promising risk predictor of metabolic syndrome (MetS) and to determine the optimal cut-off value of this ratio in detecting subjects with MetS in a Chinese population. A prospective study was conducted using a representative sample of non-institutionized people in Taiwan. A total of 3,343 participants with mean age (±SD) of 39.86 (±15.61) years old were followed up from 2002 to 2007. The primary outcome was the incidence of MetS. The MetS was defined according to a unified criterion established by several major organizations. There were 462 cases of incident MetS during a mean follow-up period of 5.26 years. A significantly stepwise increase in the incidence of MetS across quartiles of the apoB/apoA-I ratio was noted in both sexes after adjustment for potential confounders (p for trend risk of MetS in both men [adjusted hazard ratio (HR) = 6.29, 95 % confidence interval (CI) = 2.79-9.13] and women (adjusted HR = 3.82, 95 % CI = 1.06-6.63). Comparisons of receiver operating characteristics curves indicated that the predictive ability of apoB/apoA-I ratio to detect MetS was better than conventional lipid ratio measurements. Furthermore, the optimal cut-off value of apoB/apoA-I ratio for MetS diagnosis was 0.71 in men and 0.56 in women. These results suggest that an elevated apoB/apoA-I ratio might constitute a potentially crucial measure linked to the risk of developing MetS.
Value-at-risk estimation with fuzzy histograms
Almeida, R.J.; Kaymak, U.
2008-01-01
Value at risk (VaR) is a measure for senior management that summarises the financial risk a company faces into one single number. In this paper, we consider the use of fuzzy histograms for quantifying the value-at-risk of a portfolio. It is shown that the use of fuzzy histograms provides a good
Lehmann, David F; Eggleston, William D; Wang, Dongliang
2018-03-01
Use of the QT interval corrected for heart rate (QTc) on the electrocardiogram (ECG) to predict torsades de pointes (TdP) risk from culprit drugs is neither sensitive nor specific. The ratio of the half-maximum inhibitory concentration of the hERG channel (hERG IC50) to the peak serum concentration of unbound drug (C max ) is used during drug development to screen out chemical entities likely to cause TdP. To validate the use of the hERG IC50:C max ratio to predict TdP risk from a culprit drug by its correlation with TdP incidence. Medline (between 1966 and March 2017) was accessed for hERG IC50 and C max values from the antihistamine, fluoroquinolone, and antipsychotic classes to identify cases of drug-induced TdP. Exposure to a culprit drug was estimated from annual revenues reported by the manufacturer. Inclusion criteria for TdP cases were provision of an ECG tracing that demonstrated QTc prolongation with TdP and normal serum values of potassium, calcium, and magnesium. Cases reported in patients with a prior rhythm disturbance and those involving a drug interaction were excluded. The Meta-Analysis of Observational Studies in Epidemiology checklist was used for epidemiological data extraction by two authors. Negligible risk drugs were defined by an hERG IC50:C max ratio that correlated with less than a 5% chance of one TdP event for every 100 million exposures (relative risk [RR] 1.0). The hERG IC50:C max ratio correlated with TdP risk (0.312; 95% confidence interval 0.205-0.476, pratio of 80 (RR 1.0). The RR from olanzapine is on par with loratadine; ziprasidone is comparable with ciprofloxacin. Drugs with an RR greater than 50 include astemizole, risperidone, haloperidol, and thioridazine. The hERG IC50:C max ratio was correlated with TdP incidence for culprit drugs. This validation provides support for the potential use of the hERG IC50:C max ratio for clinical decision making in instances of drug selection where TdP risk is a concern. © 2018
Olamoyegun, Michael Adeyemi; Oluyombo, Rotimi; Asaolu, Stephen Olabode
2016-01-01
Background and Objectives: The increasing frequency of cardiovascular disease (CVD) rests on the presence of major cardiovascular risk factors including dyslipidemia. This dyslipidemia is also a target for the prevention and treatment of many cardiovascular diseases. Hence, identification of individuals at risk of CVD is needed for early identification and prevention. The study was carried out to evaluate dyslipidemia using the lipid ratios and indices instead of just the conventional lipid profile. Methodology: It was a cross-sectional study with 699 participants recruited from semi-urban communities in Nigeria. Anthropometric indices, blood pressure, and fasting lipid profiles were determined. Abnormalities in lipid indices and lipid ratios with atherogenic index were also determined. SPSS software version 17.0 were used for analysis, P < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. Results: There were 699 participants with a mean age of 64.45 ± 15.53 years. Elevated total cholesterol, high low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol, elevated triglyceride, and low high-density lipoprotein were seen in 5.3%, 19.3%, 4.4%, and 76.3% of the participants, respectively. The Castelli's risk index-I (CRI-I) predicted the highest prevalence of predisposition to cardiovascular risk (47.8%) with females being at significantly higher risk (55.2% vs. 29.3%, P < 0.001). Atherogenic coefficient, CRI-II, CHOLIndex, atherogenic index of plasma (AIP) predicted a cardiovascular risk prevalence of 22.5%, 15.9%, 11.2%, and 11.0%, respectively, with no significant difference in between the sexes. Conclusions: Serum lipid ratios and AIP may be used in addition to lipid parameters in clinical practice to assess cardiovascular risks even when lipid profiles are apparently normal. AIP was more gender specific amidst the lipid ratios. PMID:27853034
The Maximum Cumulative Ratio (MCR) quantifies the degree to which a single component of a chemical mixture drives the cumulative risk of a receptor.1 This study used the MCR, the Hazard Index (HI) and Hazard Quotient (HQ) to evaluate co-exposures to six phthalates using biomonito...
The Maximum Cumulative Ratio (MCR) quantifies the degree to which a single chemical drives the cumulative risk of an individual exposed to multiple chemicals. Phthalates are a class of chemicals with ubiquitous exposures in the general population that have the potential to cause ...
Zang, Emma; Zheng, Hui
2018-04-01
This study examines the relationship between the male-to-female sex ratio (measured as the proportion male) at sexual maturity and later-life mortality risks in the context of pre-industrial northeast China, using registration data from the Qing Dynasty. We find that a higher male-to-female sex ratio at sexual maturity is associated with a higher later-life mortality risk among men. This association is likely due to the long-term adverse consequences of stress caused by low mate availability at sexual maturity. We further find that a high sex ratio at sexual maturity mitigates the health benefits of marriage and exacerbates the health disadvantages of holding an official position in Qing China. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Lipid ratio as a suitable tool to identify individuals with MetS risk: A case- control study.
Abbasian, Maryam; Delvarianzadeh, Mehri; Ebrahimi, Hossein; Khosravi, Farideh
2017-11-01
This study aimed to compare the serum lipids ratio in staff with and without metabolic syndrome (MetS) who were working in Shahroud University of Medical Sciences. This case-control study was conducted in 2015 on 499 personnel aged 30-60 years old. ATP III criteria were used to diagnose patients with MetS. The data were analyzed by using logistic regression and ROC curve. Mean lipid ratio was higher in individuals having the MetS in both sexes compared with those without. In addition, the mean levels of lipid ratios significantly increased with increasing number of MetS components in both sexes. Also it could be concluded that TG/HDL-C ratio is the best marker for the diagnosis of MetS in men and women. Moreover, the cut-off point for the TG/HDL-C was 2.86 in women and 4.03 in men. It was found that for any unit of increases in the TG/HDL-C, the risk of developing the MetS will increase by 2.12 times. TG/HDL-C ratio is found to be the best clinical marker for the diagnosis of MetS compare with other lipid ratios, therefore it is recommended to be used as a feasible tool to identify individuals with MetS risk. Copyright © 2016 Diabetes India. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
LENUS (Irish Health Repository)
Stack, A G
2014-08-01
The transferrin saturation (TSAT) ratio is a commonly used indicator of iron deficiency and iron overload in clinical practice but precise relationships with total and cardiovascular mortality are unclear.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Anatoly Valeryevich Tsaregorodtsev
2014-02-01
Full Text Available Cloud computing will be one of the most common IT technologies to deploy applications, due to its key features: on-demand network access to a shared pool of configurable computing resources, flexibility and good quality/price ratio. Migrating to cloud architecture enables organizations to reduce the overall cost of implementing and maintaining the infrastructure and reduce development time for new business applications. There are many factors that influence the information security environment of cloud, as its multitenant architecture brings new and more complex problems and vulnerabilities. And the approach to risk estimation used in making decisions about the migration of critical data in the cloud infrastructure of the organization are proposed in the paper.
New NRC methodology for estimating biological risks from exposure to ionizing radiation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Willis, C.A; Branagan, E.F.
1983-01-01
In licensing commercial nuclear power reactors, in the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission considers the potential health effects from the release of radioactive effluents. This entails reliance on epidemiological study results and interpretations. The BEIR III report is a principal source of information but as newer information becomes available, it is desirable to include this in NRC models. To facilitate both the estimation of potential health effects and the evaluation of epidemiological study results, the NRC has supported the development of a new computer code (SPAHR). This new code utilizes much more comprehensive demographic models than did the previously used codes (CAIRD and BIERMOD). SPAHR can accommodate variations in all the principal demographic statistics such as age distribution, age-specific computing risks, and sex ratio. Also SPAHR can project effects over a number of generations
Comparative estimates of risks arising from storage of intermediate level radioactive wastes
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Moore, D.
1986-04-01
Estimates are presented of risks arising from accidents occuring during storage of nine types of conditioned intermediate level waste. Additional data are introduced relating to the risks from accidents affecting raw waste, and to risks associated with the occupational doses received during normal operation of a waste store. Risks in all three categories are shown to be extremely small. (author)
Romano, A; Parrinello, N L; Consoli, M L; Marchionni, L; Forte, S; Conticello, C; Pompa, A; Corso, A; Milone, G; Di Raimondo, F; Borrello, I
2015-11-01
Recent reports identify the ratio between absolute neutrophil count (ANC) and absolute lymphocyte count (ALC), called neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR), as a predictor of progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) in various malignancies. We retrospectively examined the NLR in a cohort of 309 newly diagnosed multiple myeloma (MM) patients treated upfront with novel agents. NLR was calculated using data obtained from the complete blood count (CBC) at diagnosis and subsequently correlated with PFS and OS. The median NLR was 1.9 (range 0.4-15.9). Higher NLR was independent of international staging system (ISS) stage, plasma cell infiltration or cytogenetics. The 5-year PFS and OS estimates were, respectively, 18.2 and 36.4 % for patients with NLR ≥ 2 versus 25.5 and 66.6 % in patients with NLR < 2. Among younger patients (age <65 years, N = 179), NLR ≥ 2 had a negative prognostic impact on both PFS and OS, in all ISS stages. By combining ISS stage and NLR in a model limited to young patients, we found that 19 % of the patients were classified as very low risk, 70 % standard risk and 11 % very high risk. The 5-year estimates were 39.3, 19.4 and 10.9 % for PFS and 95.8, 50.9 and 23.6 % for OS for very low, standard-risk and very high-risk groups. We found NLR to be a predictor of PFS and OS in MM patients treated upfront with novel agents. NLR can be combined with ISS staging system to identify patients with dismal outcome. However, larger cohorts and prospective studies are needed to use NLR as additional parameter to personalise MM therapy in the era of novel agents.
Latent-failure risk estimates for computer control
Dunn, William R.; Folsom, Rolfe A.; Green, Owen R.
1991-01-01
It is shown that critical computer controls employing unmonitored safety circuits are unsafe. Analysis supporting this result leads to two additional, important conclusions: (1) annual maintenance checks of safety circuit function do not, as widely believed, eliminate latent failure risk; (2) safety risk remains even if multiple, series-connected protection circuits are employed. Finally, it is shown analytically that latent failure risk is eliminated when continuous monitoring is employed.
"There Are No Known Benefits . . .": Considering the Risk/Benefit Ratio of Qualitative Research.
Opsal, Tara; Wolgemuth, Jennifer; Cross, Jennifer; Kaanta, Tanya; Dickmann, Ellyn; Colomer, Soria; Erdil-Moody, Zeynep
2016-07-01
Institutional review boards (IRBs) are responsible for weighing the risks and benefits of research participation. Qualitative researchers note numerous instances where IRB ethical frameworks fail to align with the ethics of their research projects and point out that IRB understandings of the benefits and risks of research often differ from those of the participants they seek to protect. This qualitative cross-case research investigates participants' interview experiences in six qualitative studies that differed in their methods, subject of focus, and populations. Our findings indicate that contemporary IRBs' use of population "vulnerability" and topic "sensitivity" to assess project risk does not adequately determine the benefits, risks, or ethicality of research. We recommend that IRBs treat as real the evidence for benefits in qualitative research, recognize that sensitivity and vulnerability do not predict risk, and encourage researchers to attend to relationships in their projects. © The Author(s) 2015.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gilbert, T.L.
1983-01-01
The health risks from radioactive waste may be expressed as a sum of products of transfer factors that characterize the causal chain of events between disposal of radionuclides in a waste field and the consequent health effects. Model estimates for the transfer factors are commonly obtained by modeling transport and other mechanisms in the subsystems that form the links in the causal chain. Natural estimates of some conversion factors for naturally occurring radionuclides can be obtained from data on the concentrations of naturally occurring radionuclides in soil, food, and the human body. These model and natural estimates can be used with scaling procedures to estimate the uncertainties and to obtain better estimates of the values. The scaling procedures take into account the differences in the source characteristics for radionuclides in a waste field of limited size and for radionuclides generally distributed in the natural environment. The ratios of the natural estimates to the model estimates for several transfer factors and several radionuclides belonging to the U-238 decay series have been determined. These ratios range from 1/8 to 4/1 for food-concentration/source-concentration transfer factors for the food pathways and from 1 to 77 for dose-rate/source-concentration transfer factors for the internal radiation dose pathways to various organs. 14 references
Landy, Rebecca; Cheung, Li C; Schiffman, Mark; Gage, Julia C; Hyun, Noorie; Wentzensen, Nicolas; Kinney, Walter K; Castle, Philip E; Fetterman, Barbara; Poitras, Nancy E; Lorey, Thomas; Sasieni, Peter D; Katki, Hormuzd A
2018-06-01
Electronic health-records (EHR) are increasingly used by epidemiologists studying disease following surveillance testing to provide evidence for screening intervals and referral guidelines. Although cost-effective, undiagnosed prevalent disease and interval censoring (in which asymptomatic disease is only observed at the time of testing) raise substantial analytic issues when estimating risk that cannot be addressed using Kaplan-Meier methods. Based on our experience analysing EHR from cervical cancer screening, we previously proposed the logistic-Weibull model to address these issues. Here we demonstrate how the choice of statistical method can impact risk estimates. We use observed data on 41,067 women in the cervical cancer screening program at Kaiser Permanente Northern California, 2003-2013, as well as simulations to evaluate the ability of different methods (Kaplan-Meier, Turnbull, Weibull and logistic-Weibull) to accurately estimate risk within a screening program. Cumulative risk estimates from the statistical methods varied considerably, with the largest differences occurring for prevalent disease risk when baseline disease ascertainment was random but incomplete. Kaplan-Meier underestimated risk at earlier times and overestimated risk at later times in the presence of interval censoring or undiagnosed prevalent disease. Turnbull performed well, though was inefficient and not smooth. The logistic-Weibull model performed well, except when event times didn't follow a Weibull distribution. We have demonstrated that methods for right-censored data, such as Kaplan-Meier, result in biased estimates of disease risks when applied to interval-censored data, such as screening programs using EHR data. The logistic-Weibull model is attractive, but the model fit must be checked against Turnbull non-parametric risk estimates. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Future flood risk estimates along the river Rhine
te Linde, A.H.; Bubeck, P.; Dekkers, J.E.C.; de Moel, H.; Aerts, J.C.J.H.
2011-01-01
In Europe, water management is moving from flood defence to a risk management approach, which takes both the probability and the potential consequences of flooding into account. It is expected that climate change and socio-economic development will lead to an increase in flood risk in the Rhine
CCSI Risk Estimation: An Application of Expert Elicitation
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Engel, David W.; Dalton, Angela C.
2012-10-01
The Carbon Capture Simulation Initiative (CCSI) is a multi-laboratory simulation-driven effort to develop carbon capture technologies with the goal of accelerating commercialization and adoption in the near future. One of the key CCSI technical challenges is representing and quantifying the inherent uncertainty and risks associated with developing, testing, and deploying the technology in simulated and real operational settings. To address this challenge, the CCSI Element 7 team developed a holistic risk analysis and decision-making framework. The purpose of this report is to document the CCSI Element 7 structured systematic expert elicitation to identify additional risk factors. We review the significance of and established approaches to expert elicitation, describe the CCSI risk elicitation plan and implementation strategies, and conclude by discussing the next steps and highlighting the contribution of risk elicitation toward the achievement of the overarching CCSI objectives.
Estimation of second primary cancers risk based on the treatment planning system
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jin Chufeng; Sun Guangyao; Liu Hui; Zheng Huaqing; Cheng Mengyun; Li Gui; Wu Yican; FDS Team
2011-01-01
Estimates of second primary cancers risk after radiotherapy has become increasingly important for comparative treatment planning. A new method based on the treatment planning system to estimate the risk of second primary cancers was introduced in this paper. Using the Advanced/Accurate Radiotherapy Treatment System(ARTS), a treatment planning system developed by the FDS team,the risk of second primary cancer was estimated over two treatment plans for a patient with pancreatic cancer. Based on the second primary cancer risk, the two plans were compared. It was found that,kidney and gall-bladder had higher risk to develop second primary cancer. A better plan was chosen by the analysis of second primary cancer risk. The results showed that this risk estimation method we developed could be used to evaluate treatment plans. (authors)
Time-Dependent Risk Estimation and Cost-Benefit Analysis for Mitigation Actions
van Stiphout, T.; Wiemer, S.; Marzocchi, W.
2009-04-01
Earthquakes strongly cluster in space and time. Consequently, the most dangerous time is right after a moderate earthquake has happened, because their is a ‘high' (i.e., 2-5 percent) probability that this event will be followed by a subsequent aftershock which happens to be as large or larger than the initiating event. The seismic hazard during this time-period exceeds the background probability significantly and by several orders of magnitude. Scientists have developed increasingly accurate forecast models that model this time-dependent hazard, and such models are currently being validated in prospective testing. However, this probabilistic information in the hazard space is difficult to digest for decision makers, the media and general public. Here, we introduce a possible bridge between seismology and decision makers (authorities, civil defense) by proposing a more objective way to estimate time-dependent risk assessment. Short Term Earthquake Risk assessment (STEER) combines aftershock hazard and loss assessments. We use site-specific information on site effects and building class distribution and combine this with existing loss models to compute site specific time-dependent risk curves (probability of exceedance for fatalities, injuries, damages etc). We show the effect of uncertainties in the different components using Monte Carlo Simulations of the input parameters. This time-dependent risk curves can act as a decision support. We extend the STEER approach by introducing a Cost-Benefit approach for certain mitigation actions after a medium-sized earthquake. Such Cost-Benefit approaches have been recently developed for volcanic risk assessment to rationalize precautionary evacuations in densely inhabitated areas threatened by volcanoes. Here we extend the concept to time-dependent probabilistic seismic risk assessment. For the Cost-Benefit analysis of mitigation actions we calculate the ratio between the cost for the mitigation actions and the cost of the
Estimated risk contribution for dry spent fuel storage cask
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Santos, C.; Kirk, M.T.; Abramson, L.; Guttmann, J.; Hackett, E.; Simonen, F.A.
2001-01-01
The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) is pursuing means to risk-inform its regulations and programs for dry storage of spent nuclear fuel. In pursuit of this objective, the NRC will develop safety goals and probabilistic risk assessments for implementing risk-informed programs. This paper provides one example method for calculating the risk of a dry spent fuel storage cask under normal and accident conditions. The example is on the HI-STORM 100 cask at a proposed site containing four thousand such casks. The paper evaluates the risk to the public by determining the likelihood a welded stainless steel container will leak. In addition, the study addresses the risk at a site where 4,000 casks may be stored until the U.S. Department of Energy accepts the casks for placement in a repository. The methods used employ the PRODIGAL computer code to assess the probability of a faulty weld on a stainless steel-welded canister. These analyses are only the initial stages of a comprehensive risk study that the NRC is performing in support of its regulatory initiatives. (author)
Fanshawe, Thomas R; Prevost, A Toby; Roberts, J Scott; Green, Robert C; Armstrong, David; Marteau, Theresa M
2008-09-01
This paper explores whether and how the behavioral impact of genotype disclosure can be disentangled from the impact of numerical risk estimates generated by genetic tests. Secondary data analyses are presented from a randomized controlled trial of 162 first-degree relatives of Alzheimer's disease (AD) patients. Each participant received a lifetime risk estimate of AD. Control group estimates were based on age, gender, family history, and assumed epsilon4-negative apolipoprotein E (APOE) genotype; intervention group estimates were based upon the first three variables plus true APOE genotype, which was also disclosed. AD-specific self-reported behavior change (diet, exercise, and medication use) was assessed at 12 months. Behavior change was significantly more likely with increasing risk estimates, and also more likely, but not significantly so, in epsilon4-positive intervention group participants (53% changed behavior) than in control group participants (31%). Intervention group participants receiving epsilon4-negative genotype feedback (24% changed behavior) and control group participants had similar rates of behavior change and risk estimates, the latter allowing assessment of the independent effects of genotype disclosure. However, collinearity between risk estimates and epsilon4-positive genotypes, which engender high-risk estimates, prevented assessment of the independent effect of the disclosure of an epsilon4 genotype. Novel study designs are proposed to determine whether genotype disclosure has an impact upon behavior beyond that of numerical risk estimates.
Estimating cancer risk from outdoor concentrations of hazardous air pollutants in 1990
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Woodruff, T.J.; Caldwell, J.; Cogliano, V.J.; Axelrad, D.A.
2000-03-01
A public health concern regarding hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) is their potential to cause cancer. It has been difficult to assess potential cancer risks from HAPs, due primarily to lack of ambient concentration data for the general population. The Environmental Protection Agency's Cumulative Exposure Project modeled 1990 outdoor concentrations of HAPs across the United States, which were combined with inhalation unit risk estimates to estimate the potential increase in excess cancer risk for individual carcinogenic HAPs. These were summed3d to provide an estimate of cancer risk from multiple HAPs. The analysis estimates a median excess cancer risk of 18 lifetime cancer cases per 100,000 people for all HAP concentrations. About 75% of estimated cancer risk was attributable to exposure to polycyclic organic matter, 1,3-butadiene, formaldehyde, benzene, and chromium. Consideration of some specific uncertainties, including underestimation of ambient concentrations, combining upper 95% confidence bound potency estimates, and changes to potency estimates, found that cancer risk may be underestimated by 15% or overestimated by 40--50%. Other unanalyzed uncertainties could make these under- or overestimates larger. This analysis used 1990 estimates of concentrations and can be used to track progress toward reducing cancer risk to the general population.
Estimating mortality risk reduction and economic benefits from controlling ozone air pollution
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Committee on Estimating Mortality Risk Reduction Benefits from Decreasing Tropospheric Ozone Exposure
2008-01-01
... in life expectancy, and to assess methods for estimating the monetary value of the reduced risk of premature death and increased life expectancy in the context of health-benefits analysis. Estimating Mortality Risk Reduction and Economic Benefits from Controlling Ozone Air Pollution details the committee's findings and posits several recommendations to address these issues.
Paudel, Y.; Botzen, W.J.W.; Aerts, J.C.J.H.
2013-01-01
This study applies Bayesian Inference to estimate flood risk for 53 dyke ring areas in the Netherlands, and focuses particularly on the data scarcity and extreme behaviour of catastrophe risk. The probability density curves of flood damage are estimated through Monte Carlo simulations. Based on
Option-Based Estimation of the Price of Co-Skewness and Co-Kurtosis Risk
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Christoffersen, Peter; Fournier, Mathieu; Fournier, Mathieu
-neutral second moments, and the price of co-kurtosis risk corresponds to the spread between the physical and the risk-neutral third moments. The option-based estimates of the prices of risk lead to reasonable values of the associated risk premia. An out-of-sample analysis of factor models with co-skewness and co......We show that the prices of risk for factors that are nonlinear in the market return are readily obtained using index option prices. We apply this insight to the price of co-skewness and co-kurtosis risk. The price of co-skewness risk corresponds to the spread between the physical and the risk......-kurtosis risk indicates that the new estimates of the price of risk improve the models performance. Models with higher-order market moments also robustly outperform standard competitors such as the CAPM and the Fama-French model....
Option-Based Estimation of the Price of Co-Skewness and Co-Kurtosis Risk
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Christoffersen, Peter; Fournier, Mathieu; Jacobs, Kris
-neutral second moments, and the price of co-kurtosis risk corresponds to the spread between the physical and the risk-neutral third moments. The option-based estimates of the prices of risk lead to reasonable values of the associated risk premia. An out-of-sample analysis of factor models with co-skewness and co......We show that the prices of risk for factors that are nonlinear in the market return are readily obtained using index option prices. We apply this insight to the price of co-skewness and co-kurtosis risk. The price of co-skewness risk corresponds to the spread between the physical and the risk......-kurtosis risk indicates that the new estimates of the price of risk improve the models' performance. Models with higher-order market moments also robustly outperform standard competitors such as the CAPM and the Fama-French model....
The Program Module of Information Risk Numerical Estimation
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
E. S. Stepanova
2011-03-01
Full Text Available The algorithm of information risks analysis realized in the program module on the basis of threats matrixes and fuzzy cognitive maps describing potential threats on resources is offered in this paper.
Lensink, Robert; Murinde, Victor; Green, Christopher J.
1999-01-01
This paper investigates the effect of demand uncertainty on the capital-labour ratio of non-financial firms in Poland in order to infer the firms’ risk behaviour. A generic model is used to characterise a utility maximising firm in a transition economy with demand uncertainty and imperfect
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Christoph Heesen
Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Prognostic counseling in multiple sclerosis (MS is difficult because of the high variability of disease progression. Simultaneously, patients and physicians are increasingly confronted with making treatment decisions at an early stage, which requires taking individual prognoses into account to strike a good balance between benefits and harms of treatments. It is therefore important to understand how patients and physicians estimate prognostic risk, and whether and how these estimates can be improved. An online analytical processing (OLAP tool based on pooled data from placebo cohorts of clinical trials offers short-term prognostic estimates that can be used for individual risk counseling. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to clarify if personalized prognostic information as presented by the OLAP tool is considered useful and meaningful by patients. Furthermore, we used the OLAP tool to evaluate patients' and physicians' risk estimates. Within this evaluation process we assessed short-time prognostic risk estimates of patients with MS (final n = 110 and their physicians (n = 6 and compared them with the estimates of OLAP. RESULTS: Patients rated the OLAP tool as understandable and acceptable, but to be only of moderate interest. It turned out that patients, physicians, and the OLAP tool ranked patients similarly regarding their risk of disease progression. Both patients' and physicians' estimates correlated most strongly with those disease covariates that the OLAP tool's estimates also correlated with most strongly. Exposure to the OLAP tool did not change patients' risk estimates. CONCLUSION: While the OLAP tool was rated understandable and acceptable, it was only of modest interest and did not change patients' prognostic estimates. The results suggest, however, that patients had some idea regarding their prognosis and which factors were most important in this regard. Future work with OLAP should assess long-term prognostic
Heesen, Christoph; Gaissmaier, Wolfgang; Nguyen, Franziska; Stellmann, Jan-Patrick; Kasper, Jürgen; Köpke, Sascha; Lederer, Christian; Neuhaus, Anneke; Daumer, Martin
2013-01-01
Prognostic counseling in multiple sclerosis (MS) is difficult because of the high variability of disease progression. Simultaneously, patients and physicians are increasingly confronted with making treatment decisions at an early stage, which requires taking individual prognoses into account to strike a good balance between benefits and harms of treatments. It is therefore important to understand how patients and physicians estimate prognostic risk, and whether and how these estimates can be improved. An online analytical processing (OLAP) tool based on pooled data from placebo cohorts of clinical trials offers short-term prognostic estimates that can be used for individual risk counseling. The aim of this study was to clarify if personalized prognostic information as presented by the OLAP tool is considered useful and meaningful by patients. Furthermore, we used the OLAP tool to evaluate patients' and physicians' risk estimates. Within this evaluation process we assessed short-time prognostic risk estimates of patients with MS (final n = 110) and their physicians (n = 6) and compared them with the estimates of OLAP. Patients rated the OLAP tool as understandable and acceptable, but to be only of moderate interest. It turned out that patients, physicians, and the OLAP tool ranked patients similarly regarding their risk of disease progression. Both patients' and physicians' estimates correlated most strongly with those disease covariates that the OLAP tool's estimates also correlated with most strongly. Exposure to the OLAP tool did not change patients' risk estimates. While the OLAP tool was rated understandable and acceptable, it was only of modest interest and did not change patients' prognostic estimates. The results suggest, however, that patients had some idea regarding their prognosis and which factors were most important in this regard. Future work with OLAP should assess long-term prognostic estimates and clarify its usefulness for patients and physicians
Anker, Ashley E; Feeley, Thomas H
2012-01-01
A meta-analysis of odds ratios comparing the risks of participating in transplant tourism by acquiring a kidney abroad to the risks associated with domestic kidney transplant was undertaken. Comparison across 12 medical outcomes indicates transplant tourists are significantly more likely to contract cytomegalovirus, hepatitis B, HIV, post-transplantation diabetes mellitus, and wound infection than those receiving domestic kidney transplant. Results also indicate that domestic kidney transplant recipients experience significantly higher one-yr patient- and graft-survival rates. Analyses are supplemented by independent comparisons of outcomes and provide practitioners with weighted estimates of the proportion of transplant recipients experiencing 15 medical outcomes. Practitioners are encouraged to caution patients of the medical risks associated with transplant tourism. Despite the illegal and unethical nature of transplant tourism, additional efforts are indicated to eliminate the organ trade and to educate wait-listed patients about the risks of transplant tourism. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons A/S.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Majumdar, R.; Basu, B.; Bhattacharyya, D.P.
1997-01-01
The (Cl-Mn) /Fe flux ratio at the top of the atmosphere has been estimated from source composition. The authors have adopted the SSLB model modified for weak shocks to estimate the enhancement of (Cl-Mn) /Fe flux ratio due to re acceleration. The observed active detector results of Lezniak and Webber, Caldwell, Orth et al., Engelmann et al., and our passive detector results are fairly supported by the expected results from the SSLB model modified with re acceleration after Ferrando for energies ≤ 100 GeV / n
Iwahori, T; Ueshima, H; Torii, S; Saito, Y; Fujiyoshi, A; Ohkubo, T; Miura, K
2016-05-01
This study was done to clarify the optimal number and type of casual urine specimens required to estimate urinary sodium/potassium (Na/K) ratio in individuals with high blood pressure. A total of 74 individuals with high blood pressure, 43 treated and 31 untreated, were recruited from the Japanese general population. Urinary sodium, potassium and Na/K ratio were measured in both casual urine samples and 7-day 24-h urine samples and then analyzed by correlation and Bland-Altman analyses. Mean Na/K ratio from random casual urine samples on four or more days strongly correlated with the Na/K ratio of 7-day 24-h urine (r=0.80-0.87), which was similar to the correlation between 1 and 2-day 24-h urine and 7-day 24-h urine (r=0.75-0.89). The agreement quality for Na/K ratio of seven random casual urine for estimating the Na/K ratio of 7-day 24-h urine was good (bias: -0.26, limits of agreements: -1.53-1.01), and it was similar to that of 2-day 24-h urine for estimating 7-day 24-h values (bias: 0.07, limits of agreement: -1.03 to 1.18). Stratified analyses comparing individuals using antihypertensive medication and individuals not using antihypertensive medication showed similar results. Correlations of the means of casual urine sodium or potassium concentrations with 7-day 24-h sodium or potassium excretions were relatively weaker than those for Na/K ratio. The mean Na/K ratio of 4-7 random casual urine specimens on different days provides a good substitute for 1-2-day 24-h urinary Na/K ratio for individuals with high blood pressure.
Estimating the concordance probability in a survival analysis with a discrete number of risk groups.
Heller, Glenn; Mo, Qianxing
2016-04-01
A clinical risk classification system is an important component of a treatment decision algorithm. A measure used to assess the strength of a risk classification system is discrimination, and when the outcome is survival time, the most commonly applied global measure of discrimination is the concordance probability. The concordance probability represents the pairwise probability of lower patient risk given longer survival time. The c-index and the concordance probability estimate have been used to estimate the concordance probability when patient-specific risk scores are continuous. In the current paper, the concordance probability estimate and an inverse probability censoring weighted c-index are modified to account for discrete risk scores. Simulations are generated to assess the finite sample properties of the concordance probability estimate and the weighted c-index. An application of these measures of discriminatory power to a metastatic prostate cancer risk classification system is examined.
Estimating cancer risks induced by CT screening for Korea population
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Yang, Hye Jeong; Yang, Won Seok
2016-01-01
Computed Tomography(CT) has been used to diagnose early stages of cancer and other diseases. Since the number of CT screening has been increasing, there is now a debate about the possible benefits and risks of CT screening on asymptomatic individuals. CT screening has definite benefits, however the radiation risk of screening an asymptomatic individual is a serious problem that cannot be overlooked. Despite its potential risks, CT screening for asymptomatic individual has been gradually increased in Korea and it is attributed to increase collective effective dose. Therefore, we reported the risk level of each organ which is included in scan field for CT screening and analyzed and then evaluated the risk level of Korean population comparison to others, Hong Kong, U.S. and U.K. populations. LARs are lower with older ages for all populations of both sexes. We recommend CT screening after the age of 40 because from that age, LAR decreases and the danger of top 5 cancer increases.
How are flood risk estimates affected by the choice of return-periods?
Ward, P. J.; de Moel, H.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.
2011-12-01
Flood management is more and more adopting a risk based approach, whereby flood risk is the product of the probability and consequences of flooding. One of the most common approaches in flood risk assessment is to estimate the damage that would occur for floods of several exceedance probabilities (or return periods), to plot these on an exceedance probability-loss curve (risk curve) and to estimate risk as the area under the curve. However, there is little insight into how the selection of the return-periods (which ones and how many) used to calculate risk actually affects the final risk calculation. To gain such insights, we developed and validated an inundation model capable of rapidly simulating inundation extent and depth, and dynamically coupled this to an existing damage model. The method was applied to a section of the River Meuse in the southeast of the Netherlands. Firstly, we estimated risk based on a risk curve using yearly return periods from 2 to 10 000 yr (€ 34 million p.a.). We found that the overall risk is greatly affected by the number of return periods used to construct the risk curve, with over-estimations of annual risk between 33% and 100% when only three return periods are used. In addition, binary assumptions on dike failure can have a large effect (a factor two difference) on risk estimates. Also, the minimum and maximum return period considered in the curve affects the risk estimate considerably. The results suggest that more research is needed to develop relatively simple inundation models that can be used to produce large numbers of inundation maps, complementary to more complex 2-D-3-D hydrodynamic models. It also suggests that research into flood risk could benefit by paying more attention to the damage caused by relatively high probability floods.
Estimating lung cancer risks of indoor radon: applications for prevention
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Klotz, J.B.
1986-01-01
The epidemiologic evidence for a serious lung cancer hazard from radon exposure is very strong, and cumulative exposures accrued in residences may frequently overlap those accrued in underground miners. However, many uncertainties exist in extrapolating from mining to indoor risks because of differences in the populations, in radon exposure variables, and in other exposures. Risks are also considered for indoor radon exposures outside the home. There is already suggestive evidence of an association of lung cancer with radon levels in community settings, and several large-scale investigations are in progress. Some important questions regarding quantifying risk may not be approached, however; some further research needs are outlined including development of techniques for preventing or postponing lung cancer in individuals previously exposed to high radon levels. 31 references, 2 tables
Probabilistic methodology for estimating radiation-induced cancer risk
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Dunning, D.E. Jr.; Leggett, R.W.; Williams, L.R.
1981-01-01
The RICRAC computer code was developed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory to provide a versatile and convenient methodology for radiation risk assessment. The code allows as input essentially any dose pattern commonly encountered in risk assessments for either acute or chronic exposures, and it includes consideration of the age structure of the exposed population. Results produced by the analysis include the probability of one or more radiation-induced cancer deaths in a specified population, expected numbers of deaths, and expected years of life lost as a result of premature fatalities. These calculatons include consideration of competing risks of death from all other causes. The program also generates a probability frequency distribution of the expected number of cancers in any specified cohort resulting from a given radiation dose. The methods may be applied to any specified population and dose scenario
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Dongwoo Jang
2017-10-01
Full Text Available The non-revenue water (NRW ratio in a water distribution system is the ratio of the loss due to unbilled authorized consumption, apparent losses and real losses to the overall system input volume (SIV. The method of estimating the NRW ratio by measurement might not work in an area with no district metered areas (DMAs or with unclear administrative district. Through multiple regression analyses is a statistical analysis method for calculating the NRW ratio using the main parameters of the water distribution system, although its disadvantage is lower accuracy than that of the measured NRW ratio. In this study, an artificial neural network (ANN was used to estimate the NRW ratio. The results of the study proved that the accuracy of NRW ratio calculated by the ANN model was higher than by multiple regression analysis. The developed ANN model was shown to have an accuracy that varies depending on the number of neurons in the hidden layer. Therefore, when using the ANN model, the optimal number of neurons must be determined. In addition, the accuracy of the outlier removal condition was higher than that of the original data used condition.
The following SAS macros can be used to create a bivariate distribution of usual intake of two dietary components that are consumed nearly every day and to calculate percentiles of the population distribution of the ratio of usual intakes.
Estimating Bird / Aircraft Collision Probabilities and Risk Utilizing Spatial Poisson Processes
2012-06-10
ESTIMATING BIRD/AIRCRAFT COLLISION PROBABILITIES AND RISK UTILIZING SPATIAL POISSON PROCESSES GRADUATE...AND RISK UTILIZING SPATIAL POISSON PROCESSES GRADUATE RESEARCH PAPER Presented to the Faculty Department of Operational Sciences...COLLISION PROBABILITIES AND RISK UTILIZING SPATIAL POISSON PROCESSES Brady J. Vaira, BS, MS Major, USAF Approved
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mathew, K.J.; Essex, R.M.; Gradle, C.; Narayanan, U.
2015-01-01
Certified reference materials (CRMs) recently characterized by the NBL for isotope-amount ratios are: (i) CRM 112-A, Uranium (normal) Metal Assay and Isotopic Standard, (ii) CRM 115, Uranium (depleted) Metal Assay and Isotopic Standard, and (iii) CRM 116-A, Uranium (enriched) Metal Assay and Isotopic Standard. NBL also completed re-characterization of the isotope-amount ratios in CRM 125-A, Uranium (UO 2 ) Pellet Assay, Isotopic, and Radio-chronometric Standard. Three different TIMS analytical techniques were employed for the characterization analyses. The total evaporation technique was used for the major isotope-amount ratio measurement, the modified total evaporation technique was used for both the major and minor isotope-amount ratios, and minor isotope-amount ratios were also measured using a Conventional technique. Uncertainties for the characterization studies were calculated from the combined TIMS data sets following the ISO Guide to the expression of uncertainty in measurement. The uncertainty components for the isotope-amount ratio values are discussed. (author)
Talamo, Giampaolo; Mir Muhammad, A; Pandey, Manoj K; Zhu, Junjia; Creer, Michael H; Malysz, Jozef
2015-02-11
Measurement of daily proteinuria in patients with amyloidosis is recommended at the time of diagnosis for assessing renal involvement, and for monitoring disease activity. Renal involvement is usually defined by proteinuria >500 mg/day. We evaluated the accuracy of the random urine protein-to-creatinine ratio (Pr/Cr) in predicting 24 hour proteinuria in patient with amyloidosis. We compared results of random urine Pr/Cr ratio and concomitant 24-hour urine collections in 44 patients with amyloidosis. We found a strong correlation (Spearman's ρ=0.874) between the Pr/Cr ratio and the 24 hour urine protein excretion. For predicting renal involvement, the optimal cut-off point of the Pr/Cr ratio was 715 mg/g. The sensitivity and specificity for this point were 91.8% and 95.5%, respectively, and the area under the curve value was 97.4%. We conclude that the random urine Pr/Cr ratio could be useful in the screening of renal involvement in patients with amyloidosis. If validated in a prospective study, the random urine Pr/Cr ratio could replace the 24 hour urine collection for the assessment of daily proteinuria and presence of nephrotic syndrome in patients with amyloidosis.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Giampaolo Talamo
2015-02-01
Full Text Available Measurement of daily proteinuria in patients with amyloidosis is recommended at the time of diagnosis for assessing renal involvement, and for monitoring disease activity. Renal involvement is usually defined by proteinuria >500 mg/day. We evaluated the accuracy of the random urine protein-to-creatinine ratio (Pr/Cr in predicting 24 hour proteinuria in patient with amyloidosis. We com- pared results of random urine Pr/Cr ratio and concomitant 24-hour urine collections in 44 patients with amyloidosis. We found a strong correlation (Spearman’s ρ=0.874 between the Pr/Cr ratio and the 24 hour urine protein excretion. For predicting renal involvement, the optimal cut-off point of the Pr/Cr ratio was 715 mg/g. The sensitivity and specificity for this point were 91.8% and 95.5%, respectively, and the area under the curve value was 97.4%. We conclude that the random urine Pr/Cr ratio could be useful in the screening of renal involvement in patients with amyloidosis. If validated in a prospective study, the random urine Pr/Cr ratio could replace the 24 hour urine collection for the assessment of daily proteinuria and presence of nephrotic syndrome in patients with amyloidosis.
Olver, Mark E; Mundt, James C; Thornton, David; Beggs Christofferson, Sarah M; Kingston, Drew A; Sowden, Justina N; Nicholaichuk, Terry P; Gordon, Audrey; Wong, Stephen C P
2018-04-30
The present study sought to develop updated risk categories and recidivism estimates for the Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offense version (VRS-SO; Wong, Olver, Nicholaichuk, & Gordon, 2003-2017), a sexual offender risk assessment and treatment planning tool. The overarching purpose was to increase the clarity and accuracy of communicating risk assessment information that includes a systematic incorporation of new information (i.e., change) to modify risk estimates. Four treated samples of sexual offenders with VRS-SO pretreatment, posttreatment, and Static-99R ratings were combined with a minimum follow-up period of 10-years postrelease (N = 913). Logistic regression was used to model 5- and 10-year sexual and violent (including sexual) recidivism estimates across 6 different regression models employing specific risk and change score information from the VRS-SO and/or Static-99R. A rationale is presented for clinical applications of select models and the necessity of controlling for baseline risk when utilizing change information across repeated assessments. Information concerning relative risk (percentiles) and absolute risk (recidivism estimates) is integrated with common risk assessment language guidelines to generate new risk categories for the VRS-SO. Guidelines for model selection and forensic clinical application of the risk estimates are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).
Estimating ToE Risk Level using CVSS
Houmb, S.H.; Nunes Leal Franqueira, V.
2009-01-01
Security management is about calculated risk and requires continuous evaluation to ensure cost, time and resource effectiveness. Parts of which is to make future-oriented, cost-benefit investments in security. Security investments must adhere to healthy business principles where both security and
Transfusion complications:Estimate of the residual risk of transfusion ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Background: Sub-Saharan Africa remains the epicenter of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) pan- demic. However, there is a lack of multicenter data on the risk of transfusion-transmitted HIV from blood centers in sub-Saharan Africa. Study design and methods: The incidence of HIV infections in the blood donations ...
Estimation of risks associated to land transport of uranium hexafluoride
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Pages, P.; Tomachevsky, E.
1987-01-01
The system analysed concerns the packaging 48Y containing about 12 tons of hexafluoride, 1000 tons/year are forecasted for 1990 on the 900 km road Pierrelatte-Le Havre (France). Probabilities are given by the accident file, container failure by impact or fire and sanitary consequences are analysed. Risk is evaluated and discussed [fr
Ferrucci, Francesca; Ciaccio, Roberto; Monticelli, Sara; Pigini, Paolo; di Giacomo, Simone; Purgato, Stefania; Erriquez, Daniela; Bernardoni, Roberto; Norris, Murray; Haber, Michelle; Milazzo, Giorgio; Perini, Giovanni
2018-03-01
Childhood neuroblastoma, a disease of the sympathetic nervous system, is the most common solid tumour of infancy, remarkably refractory to therapeutic treatments. One of the most powerful independent prognostic indicators for this disease is the amplification of the MYCN oncogene, which occurs at high levels in approximately 25% of neuroblastomas. Interestingly, amplification and not just expression of MYCN has a strong prognostic value, although this fact appears quite surprising as MYCN is a transcription factor that requires dimerising with its partner MAX, to exert its function. This observation greatly suggests that the role of MYCN in neuroblastoma should be examined in the context of MAX expression. In this report, we show that, in contrast to what is found in normal cells, MAX expression is significantly different among primary NBs, and that its level appears to correlate with the clinical outcome of the disease. Importantly, controlled modulation of MAX expression in neuroblastoma cells with different extents of MYCN amplification, demonstrates that MAX can instruct gene transcription programs that either reinforce or weaken the oncogenic process enacted by MYCN. In general, our work illustrates that it is the MAX to MYCN ratio that can account for tumour progression and clinical outcome in neuroblastoma and proposes that such a ratio should be considered as an important criterion to the design and development of anti-MYCN therapies. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
The impact on radiation risk estimates of effect modifiers and confounders
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sharp, G.B.; Cologne, J.B.; Pierce, D.A.; Tokuoka, S.
2003-01-01
We have conducted studies of the joint effects of radiation with other risk factors for liver, lung, and breast cancer in the cohort of Japanese survivors of the 1945 atomic bombings. Based on follow-up of 45,113 subjects from 1958 through 1994, of whom 592 developed lung cancer, we found the effects of smoking and radiation to be significantly non-multiplicative and consistent with additivity. Adjustment for smoking reduced the female:male ratio of radiation risk estimates for lung cancer in this cohort from 5.8 to 1.6, a ratio more similar to that for all solid cancers. We conducted cross sectional and case control studies within the A-bomb survivor cohort to assess the joint effects of radiation with hepatitis B virus (HBV) and C virus (HCV) infections on the etiology of liver cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Our study of 268 pathologist-confirmed cirrhosis cases and 843 subjects without cirrhosis, found no relationship between A-bomb radiation and cirrhosis after adjustment for viral hepatitis. In terms of HCC, our study of 238 pathologist-confirmed cases and 894 controls showed super-multiplicative interaction between radiation and HCV infections. Our results suggest that while chronic radiation exposure acts as a complete carcinogen for HCC, acute irradiation may act in concert with an agent such as HCV that is associated with liver cell proliferation. Studies in progress of the joint effects of radiation with insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF-1) and IGF Binding Protein 3 (IGFBP-3), and total estradiol on the etiology of breast cancer, a particularly radiogenic tumor, will also be discussed
Nakamura, Masafumi; Nakata, Kohei; Matsumoto, Hideo; Ohtsuka, Takao; Yoshida, Koji; Tokunaga, Shoji; Hino, Keisuke
Hepatic steatosis, one of the most frequent long-term complications of pancreatectomy, influences not only hepatic function but also survival rate. However, its risk factors and pathogenesis have not been established. The purpose of this study was to clarify the risk factors for hepatic steatosis after pancreatectomy. In this retrospective study of 21 patients who had undergone pancreatectomy (19 cases of pancreatoduodenectomy and 2 cases of total pancreatectomy), serum carnitine concentrations, fractions of carnitine, and hepatic attenuation on computed tomography images were analyzed with the aim of identifying risk factors for hepatic steatosis. Thirteen (61.9%) of the 21 patients were diagnosed as having hypocarnitinemia after pancreatectomy. Average hepatic attenuation was as low as 42.2HU (±21.3 SD). A high ratio of acyl/free carnitine was associated with less pronounced hepatic attenuation according to both univariate (P pancreatectomy in some patients. The statistical analyses suggest that a high ratio of acyl/free carnitine is an independent risk factor for hepatic steatosis after pancreatectomy. Copyright © 2016 IAP and EPC. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
A new estimation technique of sovereign default risk
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mehmet Ali Soytaş
2016-12-01
Full Text Available Using the fixed-point theorem, sovereign default models are solved by numerical value function iteration and calibration methods, which due to their computational constraints, greatly limits the models' quantitative performance and foregoes its country-specific quantitative projection ability. By applying the Hotz-Miller estimation technique (Hotz and Miller, 1993- often used in applied microeconometrics literature- to dynamic general equilibrium models of sovereign default, one can estimate the ex-ante default probability of economies, given the structural parameter values obtained from country-specific business-cycle statistics and relevant literature. Thus, with this technique we offer an alternative solution method to dynamic general equilibrium models of sovereign default to improve upon their quantitative inference ability.
Ivković, Maja; Pantović-Stefanović, Maja; Dunjić-Kostić, Bojana; Jurišić, Vladimir; Lačković, Maja; Totić-Poznanović, Sanja; Jovanović, Aleksandar A; Damjanović, Aleksandar
2016-04-01
Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) has been independently related to bipolar disorder (BD) and factors associated with suicidal risk. The aim of our study was to explore the relationship between NLR and suicide risk in euthymic BD patients. We also sought to propose a model of interaction between NLR and stress-diathesis factors, leading to suicidal risk in BD. The study group consisted of 83 patients diagnosed with BD (36 suicide attempters; 47 suicide non-attempters), compared to the healthy control group (n=73) and matched according to age, gender, and body mass index (BMI). NLR was measured according to the complete blood count. Mood symptoms have been assessed by Young Mania Rating Scale and Montgomery-Asberg Depression Rating Scale. Early trauma and acute stress were evaluated by Early Trauma Inventory Self Report-Short Form and List of Threatening Experiences Questionnaire, respectively. Suicide risk has been assessed by Suicide Behaviors Questionnaire-Revised (SBQ-R). Significant correlation was found between NLR and SBQ-R score. The main effects of suicide attempts on NLR, after covarying for confounders, were observed, indicating increased NLR in BD suicide attempters compared to healthy controls. We found significant moderatory effects of family history on NLR relationship to suicidal risk, with NLR being significant positive predictor of suicidal risk only in the patients with positive family history of suicide attempts. The results suggest an enhancing effect of positive family history of suicide attempts on predictive effect of NLR on suicide risk. Our data support the idea that immune markers can predict suicide attempt risk in BD, but only in the subpopulation of BD patients with family history of suicide attempts. This could lead to prevention in suicide behavior in the patient population at particular risk of suicide. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Chen, Wansu; Shi, Jiaxiao; Qian, Lei; Azen, Stanley P
2014-06-26
To estimate relative risks or risk ratios for common binary outcomes, the most popular model-based methods are the robust (also known as modified) Poisson and the log-binomial regression. Of the two methods, it is believed that the log-binomial regression yields more efficient estimators because it is maximum likelihood based, while the robust Poisson model may be less affected by outliers. Evidence to support the robustness of robust Poisson models in comparison with log-binomial models is very limited. In this study a simulation was conducted to evaluate the performance of the two methods in several scenarios where outliers existed. The findings indicate that for data coming from a population where the relationship between the outcome and the covariate was in a simple form (e.g. log-linear), the two models yielded comparable biases and mean square errors. However, if the true relationship contained a higher order term, the robust Poisson models consistently outperformed the log-binomial models even when the level of contamination is low. The robust Poisson models are more robust (or less sensitive) to outliers compared to the log-binomial models when estimating relative risks or risk ratios for common binary outcomes. Users should be aware of the limitations when choosing appropriate models to estimate relative risks or risk ratios.
Estimation of Uncertainty in Risk Assessment of Hydrogen Applications
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Markert, Frank; Krymsky, V.; Kozine, Igor
2011-01-01
Hydrogen technologies such as hydrogen fuelled vehicles and refuelling stations are being tested in practice in a number of projects (e.g. HyFleet-Cute and Whistler project) giving valuable information on the reliability and maintenance requirements. In order to establish refuelling stations the ...... probability and the NUSAP concept to quantify uncertainties of new not fully qualified hydrogen technologies and implications to risk management.......Hydrogen technologies such as hydrogen fuelled vehicles and refuelling stations are being tested in practice in a number of projects (e.g. HyFleet-Cute and Whistler project) giving valuable information on the reliability and maintenance requirements. In order to establish refuelling stations...... the permitting authorities request qualitative and quantitative risk assessments (QRA) to show the safety and acceptability in terms of failure frequencies and respective consequences. For new technologies not all statistical data might be established or are available in good quality causing assumptions...
Estimation of Employee Turnover with Competing Risks Models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Grzenda Wioletta
2015-12-01
Full Text Available Employee turnover accompanies every business organization, regardless of the industry and size. Nowadays, many companies struggle with problems related to the lack of sufficient information about the nature of employee turnover processes. Therefore, comprehensive analysis of these processes is necessary. This article aims to examine the turnover of employees from a big manufacturing company using competing risks models with covariates and without covariates. This technique allows to incorporate the information about the type of employment contract termination. Moreover, Cox proportional hazard model enables the researcher to analyse simultaneously multiple factors that affect employment duration. One of the major observations is that employee remuneration level differentiates most strongly the risk of job resignation.
Dose dependence on stochastic radiobiological effect in radiation risk estimation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Komochkov, M.M.
1999-01-01
The analysis of the results in dose -- effect relationship observation has been carried out on the cell and organism levels, with the aim to obtain more precise data on the risk coefficients at low doses. The results are represented by two contrasting groups of dose dependence on effect: a downwards concave and a J-shaped curve. Both types of dependence are described by the equation solutions of an assumed unified protective mechanism, which comprises two components: constitutive and adaptive or inducible ones. The latest data analysis of the downwards concave dependence curves shows a considerable underestimation of radiation risk in all types of cancer, except leukemia, for a number of critical groups in a population, at low doses comparing to the ICRP recommendations. With the dose increase, the decrease of the effect value per dose unit is observed. It may be possibly related to the switching of the activity of the adaptive protective mechanism, with some threshold dose values being exceeded
Georgakarakos, Efstratios; Xenakis, Antonios; Georgiadis, George S
2018-02-01
We conducted a computational study to assess the hemodynamic impact of variant main body-to-iliac limb length (L1/L2) ratios on certain hemodynamic parameters acting on the endograft (EG) either on the normal bifurcated (Bif) or the cross-limb (Cx) fashion. A customary bifurcated 3D model was computationally created and meshed using the commercially available ANSYS ICEM (Ansys Inc., Canonsburg, PA, USA) software. The total length of the EG, was kept constant, while the L1/L2 ratio ranged from 0.3 to 1.5 in the Bif and Cx reconstructed EG models. The compliance of the graft was modeled using a Fluid Structure Interaction method. Important hemodynamic parameters such as pressure drop along EG, wall shear stress (WSS) and helicity were calculated. The greatest pressure decrease across EG was calculated in the peak systolic phase. With increasing L1/L2 it was found that the Pressure Drop was increasing for the Cx configuration, while decreasing for the Bif. The greatest helicity (4.1 m/s2) was seen in peak systole of Cx with ratio of 1.5 whereas its greatest value (2 m/s2) was met in peak systole in the Bif with the shortest L1/L2 ratio (0.3). Similarly, the maximum WSS value was highest (2.74Pa) in the peak systole for the 1.5 L1/L2 of the Cx configuration, while the maximum WSS value equaled 2 Pa for all length ratios of the Bif modification (with the WSS found for L1/L2=0.3 being marginally higher). There was greater discrepancy in the WSS values for all L1/L2 ratios of the Cx bifurcation compared to Bif. Different L1/L2 rations are shown to have an impact on the pressure distribution along the entire EG while the length ratio predisposing to highest helicity or WSS values is also determined by the iliac limbs pattern of the EG. Since current custom-made EG solutions can reproduce variability in main-body/iliac limbs length ratios, further computational as well as clinical research is warranted to delineate and predict the hemodynamic and clinical effect of variable
Identification and risk estimation of movement strategies during cutting maneuvers.
David, Sina; Komnik, Igor; Peters, Markus; Funken, Johannes; Potthast, Wolfgang
2017-12-01
Approximately 70% of anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injuries occur in non-contact situations during cutting and landing maneuvers. Parameters such as footstrike patterns and trunk orientation were found to influence ACL relevant knee loading, however, the relationship between the whole body movement and injury risk is debated. This study identifies whole body movement strategies that increase injury risk, and provides training recommendations to reduce this risk or enable a save return to sports after injury. Experimental cross-sectional study design. Three dimensional movement analysis was carried out to investigate 50 participants performing anticipated 90° cutting maneuvers. To identify and characterize movement strategies, footstrike pattern, knee valgus moment, knee internal rotation moment, angle of attack, shoulder and pelvis axis were analyzed using statistical parametric mapping. Three different movement strategies were identified. One strategy included rearfoot striking in combination with a relatively upright body position which generated higher knee joint loads than the second strategy, forefoot striking in combination with more backwards leaning and pre-rotation of the trunk towards the new movement direction. A third strategy combined forefoot striking with less preorientation which increased the ACL relevant knee joint load compared to the second strategy. The identified movement strategies clearly pre-determine the injury risk during non-contact situations with the third strategy as the most unfavorable one. Compared to the study of isolated parameters, the analysis of the whole body movement allowed for detailed separation of more risky from less risky cutting strategies. These results give practical recommendations for the prevention of ACL injury. Copyright © 2017 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Bawadi Nor Faizah
2016-01-01
Full Text Available Research in the important parameters for modeling the dynamic behavior of soils has led to rapid development of the small strain stiffness and damping ratio for use in the seismic method. It is because, the experimental determination of the damping ratio is problematic, especially for hard soils sample. Many researchers have proved that the surface wave method is a reliable tool to determine shear wave velocity and damping ratio profiles at a site with very small strains level. Surface wave methods based on Rayleigh waves propagation and the resulting attenuation curve can become erroneous when higher modes contribute to the soil’s response. In this study, two approaches has been used to determine the shear strain amplitude and damping ratio of residual soils at small strain level using Spectral Analysis of Surface Wave (SASW method. One is to derive shear strain amplitude from the frequency-response curve and the other is to derive damping ratio from travel-time data. Then, the results are compared to the conventional method.
Estimation of embrittlement damage risk at neutron embrittled vessel constructions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Staevski, K.; Madzharov, D.; Detistov, P.; Petrova, T.
1998-01-01
In this work a methodology based on Damage mechanics criteria is proposed. This methodology serves for probability assessment of the brittle damage risk for the neutron embrittled vessel elements. The developed methodology is realised in RISK code and has been verified on the base of tough reliability of the pressure vessel, 'Kozloduy' NPP Unit 2. This investigation has been carried out at the given parameters of the possible defects on the vessel's weld 4 taking into account requirements of the western and Russian standards. The obtained values for ductile to brittle transition temperatures, defining the equipment life-time in the presence of maximal defect, are in good consistence with the experimentally determined ones. The analyses of results show that the pressure vessel of 'Kozloduy' NPP Unit 2 has got a high level of reliability from brittle damage risk point of view and that the western standards give more conservative evaluation. On the bases of the results a conclusion is made that the developed methodology enables analysing the influence of possible defects in the neutron embrittled elements on their to reliability and their remained life-time
Electricity markets volatility: estimates, regularities and risk management applications
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Nakamura, Masao [Sauder School of Business, University of British Columbia, 2053 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC, V6 T 1Z2 (Canada)]. E-mail: masao.nakamura@sauder.ubc.ca; Nakashima, Tomoaki [Powerex Corp., Vancouver, BC, V6C 2X8 (Canada); Niimura, Takahide [TNC Systems Technologies, Burnaby, BC, V5 H 2W4 (Canada)
2006-09-15
The recent deregulation of the market for electric power in many parts of the US and Canada has expanded the set of potential tools for managing the types of risks faced by both generators and consumers of electric power. In particular manufacturing and other firms whose operations are powered by electricity now face, on a continuing basis, the engineering management decisions concerning whether they should buy or produce electricity, and if they are to buy or sell electricity, what types of contracts are optimum. These types of risk management decisions typically involve futures, forwards, options and other financial derivatives. The price and volatility of electric power are known to play an essential role in determining which of these instruments should be used. However, electricity as a commodity possesses certain special features not shared by other commodities and hence its risk properties are not yet well understood. In this paper we consider and test certain hypotheses about the properties of electricity price using recent market data. We find that electricity prices possess certain volatility and other systematic properties that can be characterized by the type and method of delivery of electricity. These properties can be used by firms in formulating their optimal demand and supply schedules of electric power.
Electricity markets volatility: estimates, regularities and risk management applications
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Nakamura, Masao; Nakashima, Tomoaki; Niimura, Takahide
2006-01-01
The recent deregulation of the market for electric power in many parts of the US and Canada has expanded the set of potential tools for managing the types of risks faced by both generators and consumers of electric power. In particular manufacturing and other firms whose operations are powered by electricity now face, on a continuing basis, the engineering management decisions concerning whether they should buy or produce electricity, and if they are to buy or sell electricity, what types of contracts are optimum. These types of risk management decisions typically involve futures, forwards, options and other financial derivatives. The price and volatility of electric power are known to play an essential role in determining which of these instruments should be used. However, electricity as a commodity possesses certain special features not shared by other commodities and hence its risk properties are not yet well understood. In this paper we consider and test certain hypotheses about the properties of electricity price using recent market data. We find that electricity prices possess certain volatility and other systematic properties that can be characterized by the type and method of delivery of electricity. These properties can be used by firms in formulating their optimal demand and supply schedules of electric power
ESTIMATING RISK ON THE CAPITAL MARKET WITH VaR METHOD
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sinisa Bogdan
2015-06-01
Full Text Available The two basic questions that every investor tries to answer before investment are questions about predicting return and risk. Risk and return are generally considered two positively correlated sizes, during the growth of risk it is expected increase of return to compensate the higher risk. The quantification of risk in the capital market represents the current topic since occurrence of securities. Together with estimated future returns it represents starting point of any investment. In this study it is described the history of the emergence of VaR methods, usefulness in assessing the risks of financial assets. Three main Value at Risk (VaR methodologies are decribed and explained in detail: historical method, parametric method and Monte Carlo method. After the theoretical review of VaR methods it is estimated risk of liquid stocks and portfolio from the Croatian capital market with historical and parametric VaR method, after which the results were compared and explained.
Kibblewhite, M G; Bellamy, P H; Brewer, T R; Graves, A R; Dawson, C A; Rickson, R J; Truckell, I; Stuart, J
2014-03-01
Methods for the spatial estimation of risk of harm to soil by erosion by water and wind and by soil organic matter decline are explored. Rates of harm are estimated for combinations of soil type and land cover (as a proxy for hazard frequency) and used to estimate risk of soil erosion and loss of soil organic carbon (SOC) for 1 km(2)pixels. Scenarios are proposed for defining the acceptability of risk of harm to soil: the most precautionary one corresponds to no net harm after natural regeneration of soil (i.e. a 1 in 20 chance of exceeding an erosion rate of soils and a carbon stock decline of 0 tha(-1)y(-1) for organic soils). Areas at higher and lower than possible acceptable risk are mapped. The veracity of boundaries is compromised if areas of unacceptable risk are mapped to administrative boundaries. Errors in monitoring change in risk of harm to soil and inadequate information on risk reduction measures' efficacy, at landscape scales, make it impossible to use or monitor quantitative targets for risk reduction adequately. The consequences for priority area definition of expressing varying acceptable risk of harm to soil as a varying probability of exceeding a fixed level of harm, or, a varying level of harm being exceeded with a fixed probability, are discussed. Soil data and predictive models for rates of harm to soil would need considerable development and validation to implement a priority area approach robustly. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Muroga, Takeo
1990-01-01
The free defect survival ratio is calculated by ''cascade-annealing'' computer simulation using the MARLOWE and modified DAIQUIRI codes in various cases of Primary Knock-on Atom (PKA) spectra. The number of subcascades is calculated by ''cut-off'' calculation using MARLOWE. The adequacy of these methods is checked by comparing the results with experiments (surface segregation measurements and Transmission Electron Microscope cascade defect observations). The correlation using the weighted average recoil energy as a parameter shows that the saturation of the free defect survival ratio at high PKA energies has a close relation to the cascade splitting into subcascades. (author)
Financial Risk Ratios and Earnings Management: Reducing Uncertainties in Shariah-compliant Companies
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Soheil Kazemian
2018-01-01
Full Text Available This study examines whether Shariah-compliant companies practice earnings management by investigating the relationship among the risk of financial distress, leverage, and free cash flow in discretionary accruals, which function as a substitute for earnings management. This empirical research is conducted on a sample of Malaysian Shariah-compliant companies from all industries in Bursa Malaysia from 2012 to 2014. Results show that Shariah-compliant companies are highly influenced by the risk of financial distress, leverage, and free cash flow. This study argues that working as either Shariah-compliant or non-Shariah-compliant does not affect the level of earnings management through financial distress, high leverage, and free cash flow by managers. Results should be of interest to stakeholders, shareholders, and regulatory bodies (i.e., the Shariah Advisory Council and the Securities Commission that oversee the accountability of corporate financial reporting to prevent earnings management in Shariah-compliant companies. Findings can also aid relevant authorities (i.e., the Shariah Advisory Council and the Security Commission in Malaysia in overcoming or reducing problems related to earnings management. This study is one of the most significant works in Malaysia in terms of sample size and methodology. It argues that the three elements of earnings management (i.e., financial distress, high leverage, and free cash flow influence better disclosure of reported earnings.
Sanyelbhaa, Hossam; Kabel, Abdelmagied; Abo El-Naga, Heba Abd El-Rehem; Sanyelbhaa, Ahmed; Salem, Hatem
2017-10-01
This study aims to define the relative risk of development of hearing loss in offspring of consanguineous marriages. This is a retrospective case-control study conducted in a tertiary referral center in Jeddah, KSA. The study group included 1600 probands (848 males, 752 females), with age range 0.5-12 years (6.6 ± 3.6). The study group comprised of two equal, age and sex matched subgroups; Hearing Loss (HL) group and Normal Hearing (NH) group. The children included in the HL group should have idiopathic or non syndromic genetic sensorineural hearing loss. The HL Group comprised 800 children with variable degrees of sensorineural hearing loss. Profound and severe degrees of hearing loss were the most prevalent degrees (P marriage offspring in the NH group was 42.5%, while in the HL group it was 68.9% (P 0.05). The relative risk and 95% confidence interval (RR, 95% CI) for development of hearing loss in offspring of consanguineous marriage was 1.76 (95% CI 1.57-1.97, P marriage progeny to develop SNHL when compared to non consanguineous progeny. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.
Jumps and Betas: A New Framework for Disentangling and Estimating Systematic Risks
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Todorov, Viktor; Bollerslev, Tim
market portfolio, we find the estimated diffusive and jump betas with respect to the market to be quite dif- ferent for many of the stocks. Our findings have direct and important implications for empirical asset pricing finance and practical portfolio and risk management decisions.......We provide a new theoretical framework for disentangling and estimating sensitivity towards systematic diffusive and jump risks in the context of factor pricing models. Our estimates of the sensitivities towards systematic risks, or betas, are based on the notion of increasingly finer sampled...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Y. Paudel
2013-03-01
Full Text Available This study applies Bayesian Inference to estimate flood risk for 53 dyke ring areas in the Netherlands, and focuses particularly on the data scarcity and extreme behaviour of catastrophe risk. The probability density curves of flood damage are estimated through Monte Carlo simulations. Based on these results, flood insurance premiums are estimated using two different practical methods that each account in different ways for an insurer's risk aversion and the dispersion rate of loss data. This study is of practical relevance because insurers have been considering the introduction of flood insurance in the Netherlands, which is currently not generally available.
Paudel, Y.; Botzen, W. J. W.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.
2013-03-01
This study applies Bayesian Inference to estimate flood risk for 53 dyke ring areas in the Netherlands, and focuses particularly on the data scarcity and extreme behaviour of catastrophe risk. The probability density curves of flood damage are estimated through Monte Carlo simulations. Based on these results, flood insurance premiums are estimated using two different practical methods that each account in different ways for an insurer's risk aversion and the dispersion rate of loss data. This study is of practical relevance because insurers have been considering the introduction of flood insurance in the Netherlands, which is currently not generally available.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kai, Michiaki; Kusama, Tomoko
1990-01-01
Lifetime cancer risk estimates depend on risk projection models. While the increasing lengths of follow-up observation periods of atomic bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki bring about changes in cancer risk estimates, the validity of the two risk projection models, the additive risk projection model (AR) and multiplicative risk projection model (MR), comes into question. This paper compares the lifetime risk or loss of life-expectancy between the two projection models on the basis of BEIR-III report or recently published RERF report. With Japanese cancer statistics the estimates of MR were greater than those of AR, but a reversal of these results was seen when the cancer hazard function for India was used. When we investigated the validity of the two projection models using epidemiological human data and animal data, the results suggested that MR was superior to AR with respect to temporal change, but there was little evidence to support its validity. (author)
Crocamo, Cristina; Bartoli, Francesco; Montomoli, Cristina; Carrà, Giuseppe
2018-05-25
Binge drinking (BD) among young people has significant public health implications. Thus, there is the need to target users most at risk. We estimated the discriminative accuracy of an innovative model nested in a recently developed e-Health app (Digital-Alcohol RIsk Alertness Notifying Network for Adolescents and young adults [D-ARIANNA]) for BD in young people, examining its performance to predict short-term BD episodes. We consecutively recruited young adults in pubs, discos, or live music events. Participants self-administered the app D-ARIANNA, which incorporates an evidence-based risk estimation model for the dependent variable BD. They were re-evaluated after 2 weeks using a single-item BD behavior as reference. We estimated D-ARIANNA discriminative ability through measures of sensitivity and specificity, and also likelihood ratios. ROC curve analyses were carried out, exploring variability of discriminative ability across subgroups. The analyses included 507 subjects, of whom 18% reported at least 1 BD episode at follow-up. The majority of these had been identified as at high/moderate or high risk (65%) at induction. Higher scores from the D-ARIANNA risk estimation model reflected an increase in the likelihood of BD. Additional risk factors such as high pocket money availability and alcohol expectancies influence the predictive ability of the model. The D-ARIANNA model showed an appreciable, though modest, predictive ability for subsequent BD episodes. Post-hoc model showed slightly better predictive properties. Using up-to-date technology, D-ARIANNA appears an innovative and promising screening tool for BD among young people. Long-term impact remains to be established, and also the role of additional social and environmental factors.
Estimates o the risks associated with dam failure
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Ayyaswamy, P.; Hauss, B.; Hseih, T.; Moscati, A.; Hicks, T.E.; Okrent, D.
1974-03-01
The probabilities and potential consequences of dam failure in California, primarily due to large earthquakes, was estimated, taking as examples eleven dams having a relatively large population downstream. Mortalities in the event of dam failure range from 11,000 to 260,000, while damage to property may be as high as $720 million. It was assumed that an intensity IX or X earthquake (on the Modified Mercalli Scale) would be sufficient to completely fail earthen dams. Predictions of dam failure were based on the recurrence times of such earthquakes. For the dams studied, the recurrence intervals for an intensity IX earthquake varied between 20 and 800 years; for an intensity X between 50 and 30,000 years. For the Lake Chabot and San Pablo dams (respectively 20, 30 years recurrent earthquake times for a intensity X) the associated consequences are: 34,000 (Lake Chabot) and 30,000 (San Pablo) people killed; damage $140 million and $77 million. Evaculation was found to ameliorate the consequences slightly in most cases because of the short time available. Calculations are based on demography, and assume 10 foot floodwaters will drown all in their path and destroy all one-unit homes in the flood area. Damage estimates reflect losses incurred by structural damage to buildings and do not include loss of income. Hence the economic impact is probably understated.
Estimates of health risks associated with uranium transportation by air
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Elert, M.; Skagius, K.; Ericsson, A.M.; Karlsson, L.G.; Markstroem, A.
1989-01-01
There is today an increased interest for air transport of large quantities of uranium compounds. In this report the health risks from an aircrash where uraniumhexafluoride, uraniumdioxide powder, low enriched unirradiated fuel used in Swedish power reactors and unirradiated MTR-fuel used in the research reactor in Studsvik, is analysed. The radiation doses to personnel and the general public is calculated as well as the ground contamination from the spreaded material. Also air concentration of hydrogenflouride, from uraniumhexaflouride reacting with moisture in the air, is calculated. A number of intermediate results are presented. (authors) (69 refs.)
Multifactorial diseases and risk estimations: special reference of mutation component
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Yasuda, Norikazu
1995-01-01
Genetic effects of radiation in man have been tractable such aspects as genes, chromosomes, genomes, individuals and populations. In spite of enormous interest from an academic view point on the mechanism studies, it is rather a little study on incidence or prevalence of genetic diseases as hereditary effects when human population in general have been exposed by radiation. Such studies are valuable for radiation protection as well as radiation public health. In this review, I have attempted to reconcile some fragments evidences to derive an important conclusion: the hereditary effects of radiation could not be detected from examination of disease incidence (or prevalence) for the genetic risk. (J.P.N.)
Estimating the risk-return tradeoff in MENA Stock Markets
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Salim Lahmiri
2013-04-01
Full Text Available This study employs the generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic in the mean (GARCH-M methodology to investigate the return generating process of Jordan, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA, Kuwait, and Morocco stock market indices. The tradeoff between returns and the conditional variance is found to be positive in all markets. In other words, the empirical findings show that investors are rewarded for their exposure to more risk in these financial markets. This result is consistent with both financial theory and empirical finance.
Comparison of prospective risk estimates for postoperative complications: human vs computer model.
Glasgow, Robert E; Hawn, Mary T; Hosokawa, Patrick W; Henderson, William G; Min, Sung-Joon; Richman, Joshua S; Tomeh, Majed G; Campbell, Darrell; Neumayer, Leigh A
2014-02-01
Surgical quality improvement tools such as NSQIP are limited in their ability to prospectively affect individual patient care by the retrospective audit and feedback nature of their design. We hypothesized that statistical models using patient preoperative characteristics could prospectively provide risk estimates of postoperative adverse events comparable to risk estimates provided by experienced surgeons, and could be useful for stratifying preoperative assessment of patient risk. This was a prospective observational cohort. Using previously developed models for 30-day postoperative mortality, overall morbidity, cardiac, thromboembolic, pulmonary, renal, and surgical site infection (SSI) complications, model and surgeon estimates of risk were compared with each other and with actual 30-day outcomes. The study cohort included 1,791 general surgery patients operated on between June 2010 and January 2012. Observed outcomes were mortality (0.2%), overall morbidity (8.2%), and pulmonary (1.3%), cardiac (0.3%), thromboembolism (0.2%), renal (0.4%), and SSI (3.8%) complications. Model and surgeon risk estimates showed significant correlation (p risk for overall morbidity to be low, the model-predicted risk and observed morbidity rates were 2.8% and 4.1%, respectively, compared with 10% and 18% in perceived high risk patients. Patients in the highest quartile of model-predicted risk accounted for 75% of observed mortality and 52% of morbidity. Across a broad range of general surgical operations, we confirmed that the model risk estimates are in fairly good agreement with risk estimates of experienced surgeons. Using these models prospectively can identify patients at high risk for morbidity and mortality, who could then be targeted for intervention to reduce postoperative complications. Published by Elsevier Inc.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kappadath, S. Cheenu; Shaw, Chris C.
2003-01-01
Breast cancer may manifest as microcalcifications in x-ray mammography. Small microcalcifications, essential to the early detection of breast cancer, are often obscured by overlapping tissue structures. Dual-energy imaging, where separate low- and high-energy images are acquired and synthesized to cancel the tissue structures, may improve the ability to detect and visualize microcalcifications. Transmission measurements at two different kVp values were made on breast-tissue-equivalent materials under narrow-beam geometry using an indirect flat-panel mammographic imager. The imaging scenario consisted of variable aluminum thickness (to simulate calcifications) and variable glandular ratio (defined as the ratio of the glandular-tissue thickness to the total tissue thickness) for a fixed total tissue thickness--the clinical situation of microcalcification imaging with varying tissue composition under breast compression. The coefficients of the inverse-mapping functions used to determine material composition from dual-energy measurements were calculated by a least-squares analysis. The linear function poorly modeled both the aluminum thickness and the glandular ratio. The inverse-mapping functions were found to vary as analytic functions of second (conic) or third (cubic) order. By comparing the model predictions with the calibration values, the root-mean-square residuals for both the cubic and the conic functions were ∼50 μm for the aluminum thickness and ∼0.05 for the glandular ratio
We have recently reported the identification of forty new minor molecular species of acylglycerols containing hydroxy fatty acids less polar than triricinolein by electrospray ionization mass spectrometry of the lithium adducts. The ratios of regioisomers of triacylglycerols (ABC and AAB types) and ...
Limb/trunk lean mass ratio as a risk factor for mortality in peritoneal dialysis patients.
Kang, Seok Hui; Park, Jong Won; Yoon, Kyung Woo; Do, Jun Young
2013-07-01
This study was performed to determine the clinical relevance of limb/trunk lean mass ratio (LTLM) in continuous ambulatory peritoneal dialysis (CAPD) patients. This retrospective cohort study included 534 CAPD patients. Body compositions were measured using a dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry apparatus. In males, the sensitivity and specificity for the diagnosis of sarcopenia were 70.3% and 85.9%, respectively. Respective values in females were 62.3% and 83.8%. The initial low LTLM tertile was associated with mortality in male CAPD patients and in female CAPD patients. Among patients who maintained CAPD for a year, the maintenance of low LTLM tertile was associated with mortality. LTLM is associated with other lean mass indices, nutritional status, and mortality in CAPD patients. Therefore, LTLM is a novel marker that is useful for the prediction of the nutritional status and mortality in patients with CAPD. Copyright © 2013 National Kidney Foundation, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sarbjit Singh
2018-01-01
Full Text Available BACKGROUND The Waist-Hip Ratio (WHR and Waist Circumference (WC were used to identify people at health risk both from being overweight and having visceral fat distribution. The aim of this study was to determine the association of WHR and WC in measuring the abdominal obesity, cardiovascular risk and weight management. MATERIALS AND METHODS The study involved 200 medical students (102 boys and 98 girls in the age group of 18-23 years (mean age 20.43 ± 8.9 years of Government Medical College, Amritsar, Punjab. WHR was divided into three groups in females- ≤0.80, 0.81-0.85 and >0.86 and males- ≤0.90, 0.90-1.0 and >1.0. WC was also divided into three groups in females- 88 cm and males- 102 cm. RESULTS The results of measurement of Waist-Hip Ratio (WHR of females were ≤0.80 (2%, 0.81-85 (10% and >0.86 (88% and males ≤90 (82%, 0.90-1.0 (15% and >1.0 (3%. Waist Circumference (WC of females was 88 cm (19% and males 102 cm (4%. CONCLUSION WHR is a better predictor of Cardiovascular Diseases (CVD than WC. WHR and WC are measures of abdominal obesity and should be incorporated in weight management. WHR 0.81-0.86 in girls and 0.90-1.0 in males have moderate health risk, while >0.86 in females and >1.0 in males have high health risk. Men with WC ≥94 cm and women ≥80 cm should gain no further weight while men with WC ≥102 cm and women with ≥88cm should reduce their weight to avoid cardiovascular risks. Waist circumference is another alternative.
Uncertainty Estimation Cheat Sheet for Probabilistic Risk Assessment
Britton, Paul T.; Al Hassan, Mohammad; Ring, Robert W.
2017-01-01
"Uncertainty analysis itself is uncertain, therefore, you cannot evaluate it exactly," Source Uncertain Quantitative results for aerospace engineering problems are influenced by many sources of uncertainty. Uncertainty analysis aims to make a technical contribution to decision-making through the quantification of uncertainties in the relevant variables as well as through the propagation of these uncertainties up to the result. Uncertainty can be thought of as a measure of the 'goodness' of a result and is typically represented as statistical dispersion. This paper will explain common measures of centrality and dispersion; and-with examples-will provide guidelines for how they may be estimated to ensure effective technical contributions to decision-making.
An Estimation of Risk Impact of Anticipated Transients without Scram for a KSNP
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Han, Seok Jung; Yang Joon Eon
2006-07-15
Anticipated transient without scram (ATWS) event is an accident sequence with large risk impact, while it is a beyond design basis accident (BDBA). We have estimated a risk due to an ATWS accident sequence for the KSNP in consideration of the recent accident analysis results. The SECY-83-293's model for the CE type plants has been used in a risk estimation of ATWS. A risk estimation due to an ATWS for the KSNP has been performed in consideration of the recent ATWS accident analysis results and plant information. We reviewed influence factors in the SECY-83-293's model, these factors have been re-estimated by using current information and PSA results for a KSNP. A risk due to an ATWS has been estimated as 3.6E-6/yr of CDF by using domestic aspect and recent KSNP information. A sensitivity study for the UET variation has been performed. As the results of the sensitivity analysis, the overall risk spectrum by the UET variation is bounded between 7.80E-7/yr to 8.00E-6/yr of CDF. As the result of the current study, the risk due to an ATWS accident sequence has been identified as a considerable impact on the entire risk of a KSNP, so the risk estimation of that plant should be upgraded by considering the recent information like the ATWS accident analysis results. Finally, we expect that this study can become a basis for the entire risk estimation of the referred plant.
Rivera-Soto, Winna T; Rodríguez-Figueroa, Linnette
2016-03-01
Puerto Rican children could have a higher prevalence of obesity, compared to US children or even to US Hispanic children. Obese youths are more likely to have risk factors for cardiovascular conditions, such as hypertension. Although BMI provides a simple, convenient measurement of obesity, it does not measure body fat distribution, associated with mortality and morbidity. Waist circumference (WC) and waist-to-height ratio (WHtR) have been suggested to estimate obesity health risks. This study aimed to explore the association of a single blood pressure reading with 3 different obesity indicators (WC, BMI, and WHtR). A representative sample of students (first to sixth grade) from public and private schools in Puerto Rico was selected. The sample size consisted of 249 students, representing a 63% response rate. According to the sex-specific BMIs, approximately 38.1% of the children were obese or overweight. The prevalence of obesity was slightly higher when determined using WHtR but lower when using WC as the overweight indicator. The prevalence of high blood pressure among students was 12.5%; an additional 11.3% of the students were classified as possible prehypertensive. Regardless of the weight indicator used, overweight children were shown to have a higher risk of pre-hypertension/hypertension (as defined by a single BP measure) than were non-overweight children. The odds for high blood pressure were almost 3 times higher using WHtR. Logistic regression showed a stronger relationship between WHtR and the risk of pre-hypertension/hypertension than that between the former and either BMI or WC. This study suggests the possibility of higher prevalence of high blood pressure in obese Puerto Rican children. The waist-to height ratio could be the best indicator to measure obesity and potential hypertension in Puerto Rican children.
Le Vu, Stéphane; Ratmann, Oliver; Delpech, Valerie; Brown, Alison E; Gill, O Noel; Tostevin, Anna; Fraser, Christophe; Volz, Erik M
2018-06-01
Phylogenetic clustering of HIV sequences from a random sample of patients can reveal epidemiological transmission patterns, but interpretation is hampered by limited theoretical support and statistical properties of clustering analysis remain poorly understood. Alternatively, source attribution methods allow fitting of HIV transmission models and thereby quantify aspects of disease transmission. A simulation study was conducted to assess error rates of clustering methods for detecting transmission risk factors. We modeled HIV epidemics among men having sex with men and generated phylogenies comparable to those that can be obtained from HIV surveillance data in the UK. Clustering and source attribution approaches were applied to evaluate their ability to identify patient attributes as transmission risk factors. We find that commonly used methods show a misleading association between cluster size or odds of clustering and covariates that are correlated with time since infection, regardless of their influence on transmission. Clustering methods usually have higher error rates and lower sensitivity than source attribution method for identifying transmission risk factors. But neither methods provide robust estimates of transmission risk ratios. Source attribution method can alleviate drawbacks from phylogenetic clustering but formal population genetic modeling may be required to estimate quantitative transmission risk factors. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
R2 TRI facilities with 1999-2011 risk related estimates throughout the census blockgroup
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This dataset delineates the distribution of estimate risk from the TRI facilities for 1999 - 2011 throughout the census blockgroup of the region using Office of...
A proposed cutoff point of waist-to-height ratio for metabolic risk in African township adolescents
Kruger, H. Salomé; Faber, Mieke; Schutte, Aletta E.; Ellis, Suria M.
2013-01-01
Objective: A waist:height ratio (WHtR) higher than 0.5 has been proposed as a cutoff point for abdominal obesity in both sexes and at all ages. It is unknown if this cutoff point is appropriate for previously undernourished adolescents. We assessed the cutoff value of the WHtR associated with an increased metabolic risk in 178 black South African 14- to 18-y-old adolescents (69 boys, 109 girls). Methods: We measured weight, height, waist circumference, fasting plasma glucose an...
We developed a sequential Monte Carlo filter to estimate the states and the parameters in a stochastic model of Japanese Encephalitis (JE) spread in the Philippines. This method is particularly important for its adaptability to the availability of new incidence data. This method can also capture the...
Kahn, Henry S.; El ghormli, Laure; Jago, Russell; Foster, Gary D.; McMurray, Robert G.; Buse, John B.; Stadler, Diane D.; Treviño, Roberto P.; Baranowski, Tom; HEALTHY Study Group
2014-01-01
Convention defines pediatric adiposity by the body mass index z-score (BMIz) referenced to normative growth charts. Waist-to-height ratio (WHtR) does not depend on sex-and-age references. In the HEALTHY Study enrollment sample, we compared BMIz with WHtR for ability to identify adverse cardiometabolic risk. Among 5,482 sixth-grade students from 42 middle schools, we estimated explanatory variations (R 2) and standardized beta coefficients of BMIz or WHtR for cardiometabolic risk factors: insulin resistance (HOMA-IR), lipids, blood pressures, and glucose. For each risk outcome variable, we prepared adjusted regression models for four subpopulations stratified by sex and high versus lower fatness. For HOMA-IR, R 2 attributed to BMIz or WHtR was 19%–28% among high-fatness and 8%–13% among lower-fatness students. R 2 for lipid variables was 4%–9% among high-fatness and 2%–7% among lower-fatness students. In the lower-fatness subpopulations, the standardized coefficients for total cholesterol/HDL cholesterol and triglycerides tended to be weaker for BMIz (0.13–0.20) than for WHtR (0.17–0.28). Among high-fatness students, BMIz and WHtR correlated with blood pressures for Hispanics and whites, but not black boys (systolic) or girls (systolic and diastolic). In 11-12 year olds, assessments by WHtR can provide cardiometabolic risk estimates similar to conventional BMIz without requiring reference to a normative growth chart. PMID:25132986
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Henry S. Kahn
2014-01-01
Full Text Available Convention defines pediatric adiposity by the body mass index z-score (BMIz referenced to normative growth charts. Waist-to-height ratio (WHtR does not depend on sex-and-age references. In the HEALTHY Study enrollment sample, we compared BMIz with WHtR for ability to identify adverse cardiometabolic risk. Among 5,482 sixth-grade students from 42 middle schools, we estimated explanatory variations (R2 and standardized beta coefficients of BMIz or WHtR for cardiometabolic risk factors: insulin resistance (HOMA-IR, lipids, blood pressures, and glucose. For each risk outcome variable, we prepared adjusted regression models for four subpopulations stratified by sex and high versus lower fatness. For HOMA-IR, R2 attributed to BMIz or WHtR was 19%–28% among high-fatness and 8%–13% among lower-fatness students. R2 for lipid variables was 4%–9% among high-fatness and 2%–7% among lower-fatness students. In the lower-fatness subpopulations, the standardized coefficients for total cholesterol/HDL cholesterol and triglycerides tended to be weaker for BMIz (0.13–0.20 than for WHtR (0.17–0.28. Among high-fatness students, BMIz and WHtR correlated with blood pressures for Hispanics and whites, but not black boys (systolic or girls (systolic and diastolic. In 11-12 year olds, assessments by WHtR can provide cardiometabolic risk estimates similar to conventional BMIz without requiring reference to a normative growth chart.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Endo, T.; Sato, S.; Yamamoto, A.
2012-01-01
Average burnup of damaged fuels loaded in Fukushima Dai-ichi reactors is estimated, using the 134 Cs/ 137 Cs ratio method for measured radioactivities of 134 Cs and 137 Cs in contaminated soils within the range of 100 km from the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plants. As a result, the measured 134 Cs/ 137 Cs ratio from the contaminated soil is 0.996±0.07 as of March 11, 2011. Based on the 134 Cs/ 137 Cs ratio method, the estimated burnup of damaged fuels is approximately 17.2±1.5 [GWd/tHM]. It is noted that the numerical results of various calculation codes (SRAC2006/PIJ, SCALE6.0/TRITON, and MVP-BURN) are almost the same evaluation values of 134 Cs/ 137 Cs ratio with same evaluated nuclear data library (ENDF-B/VII.0). The void fraction effect in depletion calculation has a major impact on 134 Cs/ 137 Cs ratio compared with the differences between JENDL-4.0 and ENDF-B/VII.0. (authors)
Nielsen, Jens M; Popp, Brian N; Winder, Monika
2015-07-01
Estimating trophic structures is a common approach used to retrieve information regarding energy pathways, predation, and competition in complex ecosystems. The application of amino acid (AA) compound-specific nitrogen (N) isotope analysis (CSIA) is a relatively new method used to estimate trophic position (TP) and feeding relationships in diverse organisms. Here, we conducted the first meta-analysis of δ(15)N AA values from measurements of 359 marine species covering four trophic levels, and compared TP estimates from AA-CSIA to literature values derived from food items, gut or stomach content analysis. We tested whether the AA trophic enrichment factor (TEF), or the (15)N enrichment among different individual AAs is constant across trophic levels and whether inclusion of δ(15)N values from multiple AAs improves TP estimation. For the TEF of glutamic acid relative to phenylalanine (Phe) we found an average value of 6.6‰ across all taxa, which is significantly lower than the commonly applied 7.6‰. We found that organism feeding ecology influences TEF values of several trophic AAs relative to Phe, with significantly higher TEF values for herbivores compared to omnivores and carnivores, while TEF values were also significantly lower for animals excreting urea compared to ammonium. Based on the comparison of multiple model structures using the metadata of δ(15)N AA values we show that increasing the number of AAs in principle improves precision in TP estimation. This meta-analysis clarifies the advantages and limitations of using individual δ(15)N AA values as tools in trophic ecology and provides a guideline for the future application of AA-CSIA to food web studies.
Use of doubling doses for the estimation of genetic risks
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Searle, A.G.
1977-01-01
Doubling dose estimates derived from radiation experiments in mice are proving of great value for the assessment of genetic hazards to man from extra radiation exposure because they allow the latest information on mutation frequencies and the incidence of genetic disease in man to be used in the assessment process. The similarity in spectra of 'spontaneous' and induced mutations increases coincidence in the validity of this approach. Data on rates of induction of dominant and recessive mutations, translocations and X-chromosome loss are used to derive doubling doses for chronic exposures to both low and high-LET radiations. Values for γ and X-rays, derived from both male and female germ-cells, fall inside a fairly small range and it is felt that the use of an overall figure of 100 rads is justifiable for protection purposes. Values for neutrons and α-particles, obtained from male germ-cells, varied according to neutron energy etc. but clustered around a value of 5 rads for fission neutrons
Williams, Kirk R; Stansfield, Richard
2017-08-01
To manage intimate partner violence (IPV), the criminal justice system has turned to risk assessment instruments to predict if a perpetrator will reoffend. Empirically determining whether offenders assessed as high risk are those who recidivate is critical for establishing the predictive validity of IPV risk assessment instruments and for guiding the supervision of perpetrators. But by focusing solely on the relation between calculated risk scores and subsequent IPV recidivism, previous studies of the predictive validity of risk assessment instruments omitted mediating factors intended to mitigate the risk of this behavioral recidivism. The purpose of this study was to examine the mediating effects of such factors and the moderating effects of risk assessment on the relation between assessed risk (using the Domestic Violence Screening Instrument-Revised [DVSI-R]) and recidivistic IPV. Using a sample of 2,520 perpetrators of IPV, results revealed that time sentenced to jail and time sentenced to probation each significantly mediated the relation between DVSI-R risk level and frequency of reoffending. The results also revealed that assessed risk moderated the relation between these mediating factors and IPV recidivism, with reduced recidivism (negative estimated effects) for high-risk perpetrators but increased recidivism (positive estimate effects) for low-risk perpetrators. The implication is to assign interventions to the level of risk so that no harm is done. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).
Coresh, Josef; Turin, Tanvir Chowdhury; Matsushita, Kunihiro; Sang, Yingying; Ballew, Shoshana H; Appel, Lawrence J; Arima, Hisatomi; Chadban, Steven J; Cirillo, Massimo; Djurdjev, Ognjenka; Green, Jamie A; Heine, Gunnar H; Inker, Lesley A; Irie, Fujiko; Ishani, Areef; Ix, Joachim H; Kovesdy, Csaba P; Marks, Angharad; Ohkubo, Takayoshi; Shalev, Varda; Shankar, Anoop; Wen, Chi Pang; de Jong, Paul E; Iseki, Kunitoshi; Stengel, Benedicte; Gansevoort, Ron T; Levey, Andrew S
2014-06-25
The established chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression end point of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) or a doubling of serum creatinine concentration (corresponding to a change in estimated glomerular filtration rate [GFR] of −57% or greater) is a late event. To characterize the association of decline in estimated GFR with subsequent progression to ESRD with implications for using lesser declines in estimated GFR as potential alternative end points for CKD progression. Because most people with CKD die before reaching ESRD, mortality risk also was investigated. Individual meta-analysis of 1.7 million participants with 12,344 ESRD events and 223,944 deaths from 35 cohorts in the CKD Prognosis Consortium with a repeated measure of serum creatinine concentration over 1 to 3 years and outcome data. Transfer of individual participant data or standardized analysis of outputs for random-effects meta-analysis conducted between July 2012 and September 2013, with baseline estimated GFR values collected from 1975 through 2012. End-stage renal disease (initiation of dialysis or transplantation) or all-cause mortality risk related to percentage change in estimated GFR over 2 years, adjusted for potential confounders and first estimated GFR. The adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of ESRD and mortality were higher with larger estimated GFR decline. Among participants with baseline estimated GFR of less than 60 mL/min/1.73 m2, the adjusted HRs for ESRD were 32.1 (95% CI, 22.3-46.3) for changes of −57% in estimated GFR and 5.4 (95% CI, 4.5-6.4) for changes of −30%. However, changes of −30% or greater (6.9% [95% CI, 6.4%-7.4%] of the entire consortium) were more common than changes of −57% (0.79% [95% CI, 0.52%-1.06%]). This association was strong and consistent across the length of the baseline period (1 to 3 years), baseline estimated GFR, age, diabetes status, or albuminuria. Average adjusted 10-year risk of ESRD (in patients with a baseline estimated GFR of 35 mL/min/1.73 m2
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sutherland, J.V.
1983-01-01
A three-phase study was undertaken to (1) determine the nature of disagreement among scientists concerning risk of environmental release of plutonium, (2) develop an analytic procedure for determining risk based on clearly stated principles defensible by reference to the literature, and (3) develop estimates of radiation dose to the lung from exposure to plutonium in ambient air for the purpose of evaluating risk to an individual with a specified age and smoking history. Eleven epidemiologists, biostatisticians and radiation scientists participated in Phase I of the study. It was shown that no clearly stated analytical principles for risk estimation were in common use, resulting in widely divergent risk estimates. Five of these disagreeing scientists in Phase I (including all cancer epidemiologists in the Denver metropolitan area) were chosen for Phase II of the study. A single analytic procedure was developed which was unanimously agreed upon. This procedure was dependent on the estimate of dose to the lung from ambient air levels of Rocky Flats plutonium. In Phase III of the study, a panel of four radiation scientists developed a procedure for estimation of dose to the lung from chronic exposure to plutonium ambient air levels. Results from all phases of the study were used to develop a method for estimation of relative risk of lung cancer for an individual, given plutonium dose to the lung, age, smoking history and other radiation exposure
Burger, Joanna; Gochfeld, Michael
2013-07-01
There is an emerging consensus that people consuming large amounts of fish with selenium:mercury ratios below 1 are at higher risk from mercury toxicity. As the relative amount of selenium increases compared to mercury, risk may be lowered, but it is unclear how much excess selenium is required. It would be useful if the selenium:mercury ratio was relatively consistent within a species, but this has not been the case in our studies of wild-caught fish. Since most people in developed countries and urban areas obtain their fish and other seafood commercially, we examined selenium:mercury molar ratios in commercial fish purchased in stores and fish markets in central New Jersey and Chicago. There was substantial interspecific and intraspecific variation in molar ratios. Across species the selenium:mercury molar ratio decreased with increasing mean mercury levels, but selenium variation also contributed to the ratio. Few samples had selenium:mercury molar ratios below 1, but there was a wide range in ratios, complicating the interpretation for use in risk management and communication. Before ratios can be used in risk management, more information is needed on mercury:selenium interactions and mutual bioavailability, and on the relationship between molar ratios and health outcomes. Further, people who are selenium deficient may be more at risk from mercury toxicity than others. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Burger, Joanna; Gochfeld, Michael
2015-01-01
There is an emerging consensus that people consuming large amounts of fish with selenium:mercury ratios below 1 may be at higher risk from mercury toxicity. As the relative amount of selenium increases compared to mercury, risk may be lowered, but it is unclear how much excess selenium is required. It would be useful if the selenium:mercury ratio was relatively consistent within a species, but this has not been the case in our studies of wild-caught fish. Since most people in developed countries and urban areas obtain their fish and other seafood commercially, we examined selenium:mercury molar ratios in commercial fish purchased in stores and fish markets in central New Jersey and Chicago. There was substantial interspecific and intraspecific variation in molar ratios. Across species the selenium:mercury molar ratio decreased with increasing mean mercury levels, but selenium variation also contributed to the ratio. Few samples had selenium:mercury molar ratios below 1, but there was a wide range in ratios, complicating the interpretation for use in risk management and communication. Before ratios can be used in risk management, more information is needed on mercury:selenium interactions and mutual bioavailability, and on the relationship between molar ratios and health outcomes. Further, people who are selenium deficient may be more at risk from mercury toxicity than others. PMID:23541437
Estimation of lifetime cumulative incidence and mortality risk of gastric cancer.
Taniyama, Yukari; Katanoda, Kota; Charvat, Hadrien; Hori, Megumi; Ohno, Yuko; Sasazuki, Shizuka; Tsugane, Shoichiro
2017-11-01
To estimate cumulative incidence and mortality risk for gastric cancer by risk category. Risk was classified into four types according to the presence/absence of Helicobacter pylori infection and chronic atrophic gastritis: in order of lowest to highest risk, Group A: H. pylori(-) and atrophic gastritis(-); Group B: H. pylori(+) and atrophic gastritis(-); Group C:H. pylori(+) and atrophic gastritis(+); and, Group D: H. pylori(-) and atrophic gastritis(+). We used vital statistics for the crude all-cause and crude gastric cancer mortality rates in 2011 and data from population-based cancer registries (the Monitoring of Cancer Incidence in Japan) for gastric cancer incidence in 2011. For relative risk and prevalence, we used the results of a meta-analysis integrating previous studies and data from the Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study for the Next Generation, respectively (baseline survey 2011-16). We calculated the crude incidence and mortality rates and estimated the cumulative risk using a life-table method. The estimated lifetime cumulative incidence risk was 11.4% for men and 5.7% for women. The estimated risk for Groups A, B, C and D was 2.4%, 10.8%, 26.7% and 35.5% for men, and 1.2%, 5.5%, 13.5% and 18.0% for women, respectively. Similarly, the estimated lifetime cumulative mortality risk was 3.9% for men and 1.8% for women. The estimated risk of mortality for Groups A, B, C and D was 0.8%, 3.6%, 9.0% and 12.0% for men, and 0.4%, 1.7%, 4.2% and 5.7% for women, respectively. Our results may be useful for designing individually tailored prevention programs. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press.
The estimation of time-varying risks in asset pricing modelling using B-Spline method
Nurjannah; Solimun; Rinaldo, Adji
2017-12-01
Asset pricing modelling has been extensively studied in the past few decades to explore the risk-return relationship. The asset pricing literature typically assumed a static risk-return relationship. However, several studies found few anomalies in the asset pricing modelling which captured the presence of the risk instability. The dynamic model is proposed to offer a better model. The main problem highlighted in the dynamic model literature is that the set of conditioning information is unobservable and therefore some assumptions have to be made. Hence, the estimation requires additional assumptions about the dynamics of risk. To overcome this problem, the nonparametric estimators can also be used as an alternative for estimating risk. The flexibility of the nonparametric setting avoids the problem of misspecification derived from selecting a functional form. This paper investigates the estimation of time-varying asset pricing model using B-Spline, as one of nonparametric approach. The advantages of spline method is its computational speed and simplicity, as well as the clarity of controlling curvature directly. The three popular asset pricing models will be investigated namely CAPM (Capital Asset Pricing Model), Fama-French 3-factors model and Carhart 4-factors model. The results suggest that the estimated risks are time-varying and not stable overtime which confirms the risk instability anomaly. The results is more pronounced in Carhart’s 4-factors model.
Estimation of baseline lifetime risk of developed cancer related to radiation exposure in China
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Li Xiaoliang; Niu Haowei; Sun Quanfu; Ma Weidong
2011-01-01
Objective: To introduce the general international method for estimation of lifetime risk of developed cancer, and to estimate the lifetime risk baseline values of several kinds of cancers related to radiation exposures in China. Methods: The risk estimation was based on the data from Chinese Cancer Registry Annual Report (2010) and China Population and Employment Statistics Yearbook (2009), and made according to the method previously published by National Cancer Institute (NCI) in USA. Results: The lifetime risk of all cancer in China in 2007 was estimated to be 27.77%, that of lung cancer 5.96%, that of breast cancer for female 3.34%, that of all leukemia 0.14%, that of thyroid cancer 0.37%. The lifetime risks of all cancer were estimated to be 32.74% for males and 24.73% for females, and that was 36.47% for urban residents and 26.79% for rural people. Conclusions: The lifetime risk of all cancer for males in 2007 was about 1.25 times as much as that for females. The value of all cancer for urban residents was about 1.35 times as much as that for rural residents. The lifetime risk of developed cancers in 2007 in China is lower than that in the developed countries,such as Japan. (authors)
ESTIMATING RISK TO CALIFORNIA ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE FROM PROJECTED CLIMATE CHANGE
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Sathaye, Jayant; Dale, Larry; Larsen, Peter; Fitts, Gary; Koy, Kevin; Lewis, Sarah; Lucena, Andre
2011-06-22
This report outlines the results of a study of the impact of climate change on the energy infrastructure of California and the San Francisco Bay region, including impacts on power plant generation; transmission line and substation capacity during heat spells; wildfires near transmission lines; sea level encroachment upon power plants, substations, and natural gas facilities; and peak electrical demand. Some end-of-century impacts were projected:Expected warming will decrease gas-fired generator efficiency. The maximum statewide coincident loss is projected at 10.3 gigawatts (with current power plant infrastructure and population), an increase of 6.2 percent over current temperature-induced losses. By the end of the century, electricity demand for almost all summer days is expected to exceed the current ninetieth percentile per-capita peak load. As much as 21 percent growth is expected in ninetieth percentile peak demand (per-capita, exclusive of population growth). When generator losses are included in the demand, the ninetieth percentile peaks may increase up to 25 percent. As the climate warms, California's peak supply capacity will need to grow faster than the population.Substation capacity is projected to decrease an average of 2.7 percent. A 5C (9F) air temperature increase (the average increase predicted for hot days in August) will diminish the capacity of a fully-loaded transmission line by an average of 7.5 percent.The potential exposure of transmission lines to wildfire is expected to increase with time. We have identified some lines whose probability of exposure to fire are expected to increase by as much as 40 percent. Up to 25 coastal power plants and 86 substations are at risk of flooding (or partial flooding) due to sea level rise.
Ware, L J; Rennie, K L; Kruger, H S; Kruger, I M; Greeff, M; Fourie, C M T; Huisman, H W; Scheepers, J D W; Uys, A S; Kruger, R; Van Rooyen, J M; Schutte, R; Schutte, A E
2014-08-01
Simple, low-cost central obesity measures may help identify individuals with increased cardiometabolic disease risk, although it is unclear which measures perform best in African adults. We aimed to: 1) cross-sectionally compare the accuracy of existing waist-to-height ratio (WHtR) and waist circumference (WC) thresholds to identify individuals with hypertension, pre-diabetes, or dyslipidaemia; 2) identify optimal WC and WHtR thresholds to detect CVD risk in this African population; and 3) assess which measure best predicts 5-year CVD risk. Black South Africans (577 men, 942 women, aged >30years) were recruited by random household selection from four North West Province communities. Demographic and anthropometric measures were taken. Recommended diagnostic thresholds (WC > 80 cm for women, >94 cm for men; WHtR > 0.5) were evaluated to predict blood pressure, fasting blood glucose, lipids, and glycated haemoglobin measured at baseline and 5 year follow up. Women were significantly more overweight than men at baseline (mean body mass index (BMI) women 27.3 ± 7.4 kg/m(2), men 20.9 ± 4.3 kg/m(2)); median WC women 81.9 cm (interquartile range 61-103), men 74.7 cm (63-87 cm), all P women, both WC and WHtR significantly predicted all cardiometabolic risk factors after 5 years. In men, even after adjusting WC threshold based on ROC analysis, WHtR better predicted overall 5-year risk. Neither measure predicted hypertension in men. The WHtR threshold of >0.5 appears to be more consistently supported and may provide a better predictor of future cardiometabolic risk in sub-Saharan Africa. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Jia, A H; Xu, S Y; Ming, J; Zhou, J; Zhang, W C; Hao, P R; Ji, Q H
2017-11-01
Objective: Waist-to-height ratio (WHtR), a measurement of the distribution of body fat, correlated with abdominal obesity indicating that it might be a better predictor of cardiovascular risk and metabolic disease. We, therefore, evaluated optimal WHtR cutoff points according to the risk of framingham risk score (FRS) and metabolic syndrome (MS) in Chinese. Methods: The subjects were from China National Diabetes and Metabolic Disorders Survey during 2007-2008. Receiver operating characteristic analysis was used to examine the optimal cutoff values of WHtR according to the risk of FRS and MS. Results: A total of 27 820 women and 18 419 men were included in the evaluation. The average age was (45.0±13.7) years. The proportions of FRS ≥10% and MS increased with WHtR both in men and women. The cutoff points of WHtR for the risk of FRS ≥10% and MS were 0.51, 0.52 in men, and 0.52, 0.53 in women, respectively. When FRS ≥10% and MS were taken into consideration with a certain weights, the pooled cutoffs of WHtR were 0.51 in men, and 0.53 in women, respectively. By using the similar method, the optimized cutoff points were 0.52, 0.51, 0.50 for men and 0.51, 0.53, 0.54 for women in age group 20-39, 40-59 and ≥60 years, respectively. Conclusions: The optimal cutoffs of WHtR are 0.51 in men, and 0.53 in women for FRS≥10% in combination with MS indicating that this WHtR cutoff points might be used as indexes to evaluate obesity and risk of obesity-related diseases.
An update on standards for radiation in the environment and associated estimates of risk
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kocher, D.C.
1989-01-01
This presentation reviews current and proposed standards, recommendations, and guidances for limiting routine radiation exposures of the public, and estimates the risk corresponding to standards, recommendations, and guidances. These estimates provide a common basis for comparing different criteria for limiting public exposures to radiation, as well as hazardous chemicals
REVIEW OF DRAFT REVISED BLUE BOOK ON ESTIMATING CANCER RISKS FROM EXPOSURE TO IONIZING RADIATION
In 1994, EPA published a report, referred to as the “Blue Book,” which lays out EPA’s current methodology for quantitatively estimating radiogenic cancer risks. A follow-on report made minor adjustments to the previous estimates and presented a partial analysis of the uncertainti...
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Santarelli, Maria Filomena; Positano, Vincenzo; Giovannetti, Giulio
2012-01-01
signals with low signal‐to‐noise ratio (SNR). The relationship between SNR and the precision of quantitative analysis for the evaluation of the in vivo kinetic behavior of metabolites is unknown. In this article, this topic is addressed by Monte Carlo simulations, covering the problem of MRS signal model......MRS of hyperpolarized 13C‐labeled compounds represents a promising technique for in vivo metabolic studies. However, robust quantification and metabolic modeling are still important areas of investigation. In particular, time and spatial resolution constraints may lead to the analysis of MRS...
Psychological impact of providing women with personalised 10-year breast cancer risk estimates.
French, David P; Southworth, Jake; Howell, Anthony; Harvie, Michelle; Stavrinos, Paula; Watterson, Donna; Sampson, Sarah; Evans, D Gareth; Donnelly, Louise S
2018-05-08
The Predicting Risk of Cancer at Screening (PROCAS) study estimated 10-year breast cancer risk for 53,596 women attending NHS Breast Screening Programme. The present study, nested within the PROCAS study, aimed to assess the psychological impact of receiving breast cancer risk estimates, based on: (a) the Tyrer-Cuzick (T-C) algorithm including breast density or (b) T-C including breast density plus single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), versus (c) comparison women awaiting results. A sample of 2138 women from the PROCAS study was stratified by testing groups: T-C only, T-C(+SNPs) and comparison women; and by 10-year risk estimates received: 'moderate' (5-7.99%), 'average' (2-4.99%) or 'below average' (<1.99%) risk. Postal questionnaires were returned by 765 (36%) women. Overall state anxiety and cancer worry were low, and similar for women in T-C only and T-C(+SNPs) groups. Women in both T-C only and T-C(+SNPs) groups showed lower-state anxiety but slightly higher cancer worry than comparison women awaiting results. Risk information had no consistent effects on intentions to change behaviour. Most women were satisfied with information provided. There was considerable variation in understanding. No major harms of providing women with 10-year breast cancer risk estimates were detected. Research to establish the feasibility of risk-stratified breast screening is warranted.
Cancer risks in BRCA2 families: estimates for sites other than breast and ovary
van Asperen, C. J.; Brohet, R. M.; Meijers-Heijboer, E. J.; Hoogerbrugge, N.; Verhoef, S.; Vasen, H. F. A.; Ausems, M. G. E. M.; Menko, F. H.; Gomez Garcia, E. B.; Klijn, J. G. M.; Hogervorst, F. B. L.; van Houwelingen, J. C.; van't Veer, L. J.; Rookus, M. A.; van Leeuwen, F. E.
2005-01-01
In BRCA2 mutation carriers, increased risks have been reported for several cancer sites besides breast and ovary. As most of the families included in earlier reports were selected on the basis of multiple breast/ovarian cancer cases, it is possible that risk estimates may differ in mutation carriers
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Joensen, Albert Marni; Schmidt, E.B.; Dethlefsen, Claus
2007-01-01
of acute coronary syndrome (ACS) diagnoses identified in a hospital discharge register changed the relative risk estimates of well-established risk factors for ACS. Methods All first-time ACS diagnoses (n=1138) in the Danish National Patient Registry were identified among male participants in the Danish...
Stroke risk estimation across nine European countries in the MORGAM project
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Borglykke, Anders; Andreasen, Anne H; Kuulasmaa, Kari
2010-01-01
Previous tools for stroke risk assessment have either been developed for specific populations or lack data on non-fatal events or uniform data collection. The purpose of this study was to develop a stepwise model for the estimation of 10 year risk of stroke in nine different countries across Europe....
Insulin sensitivity and mortality risk estimation in patients with type 2 ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Background: There is at present the dearth of information on the possible contribution of insulin resistance to scores obtained from mortality risk estimation in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Aim: This study determined the mortality risk scores in patients with T2DM and its relationship with insulin resistance.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Atsumi Hamada
2011-01-01
Full Text Available Background. Because of the epidemic of metabolic syndrome (MS in Australian Aboriginals known for their higher cardiovascular mortality and shorter life expectancy, we analyzed the possible relationship of their MS risks with the current dietary custom. Methods. The subjects were 84 people aged 16–79 years. The health examination was conducted according to the basic protocol of WHO-CARDIAC (Cardiovascular Diseases and Alimentary Comparison Study. Results. The highest prevalence among MS risks was abdominal obesity (over 60%. After controlling for age and sex, the odds of obesity decreased significantly with high level of urinary magnesium/creatinine ratio (Mg/cre (OR, 0.11; 95% CI, 0.02–0.57; P<.05. The significant inverse associations of fat intake with Mg/cre and of fast food intake with urinary taurine/creatinine ratio were revealed. Conclusions. The high prevalence of obesity in the Aboriginal people of this area may partly be due to the reduction of beneficial nutrients intake including Mg and taurine.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Till, J.E.; Meyer, K.R.
1990-01-01
Methods for assessing radioactive waste sites that contain chemical constituents are in the formative stages. In evaluating these sites, a key concern will be the hazard to personnel involved in cleanup work and to the general population. This paper focuses on what we have learned from pathway analysis and risk assessment about providing a combined estimate of risk from exposure to both chemicals and radionuclides. Quantitative radiation risk assessment involves a high degree of uncertainty. Chemical risk assessment generally does not provide quantitative results. Thus, it is not currently possible to develop a useful, quantitative combined risk assessment for mixed-waste sites
Estimating radiation-induced cancer risk using MVK two-stage model for carcinogenesis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kai, M.; Kusama, T.; Aoki, Y.
1993-01-01
Based on the carcinogenesis model as proposed by Moolgavkar et al., time-dependent relative risk models were derived for projecting the time variation in excess relative risk. If it is assumed that each process is described by time-independent linear dose-response relationship, the time variation in excess relative risk is influenced by the parameter related with the promotion process. The risk model based carcinogenesis theory would play a marked role in estimating radiation-induced cancer risk in constructing a projection model or transfer model
Rezaei, Fatemeh; Tavassoli, Seyed Hassan
2016-11-01
In this paper, a study is performed on the spectral lines of plasma radiations created from focusing of the Nd:YAG laser on Al standard alloys at atmospheric air pressure. A new theoretical method is presented to investigate the evolution of the optical depth of the plasma based on the radiative transfer equation, in LTE condition. This work relies on the Boltzmann distribution, lines broadening equations, and as well as the self-absorption relation. Then, an experimental set-up is devised to extract some of plasma parameters such as temperature from modified line ratio analysis, electron density from Stark broadening mechanism, line intensities of two spectral lines in the same order of ionization from similar species, and the plasma length from the shadowgraphy section. In this method, the summation and the ratio of two spectral lines are considered for evaluation of the temporal variations of the plasma parameters in a LIBS homogeneous plasma. The main advantage of this method is that it comprises the both of thin and thick laser induced plasmas without straight calculation of self-absorption coefficient. Moreover, the presented model can also be utilized for evaluation the transition of plasma from the thin condition to the thick one. The results illustrated that by measuring the line intensities of two spectral lines at different evolution times, the plasma cooling and the growth of the optical depth can be followed.
Vu, Cung; Nihei, Kurt T; Schmitt, Denis P; Skelt, Christopher; Johnson, Paul A; Guyer, Robert; TenCate, James A; Le Bas, Pierre-Yves
2012-10-16
In some aspects of the disclosure, a method for creating three-dimensional images of non-linear properties and the compressional to shear velocity ratio in a region remote from a borehole using a conveyed logging tool is disclosed. In some aspects, the method includes arranging a first source in the borehole and generating a steered beam of elastic energy at a first frequency; arranging a second source in the borehole and generating a steerable beam of elastic energy at a second frequency, such that the steerable beam at the first frequency and the steerable beam at the second frequency intercept at a location away from the borehole; receiving at the borehole by a sensor a third elastic wave, created by a three wave mixing process, with a frequency equal to a difference between the first and second frequencies and a direction of propagation towards the borehole; determining a location of a three wave mixing region based on the arrangement of the first and second sources and on properties of the third wave signal; and creating three-dimensional images of the non-linear properties using data recorded by repeating the generating, receiving and determining at a plurality of azimuths, inclinations and longitudinal locations within the borehole. The method is additionally used to generate three dimensional images of the ratio of compressional to shear acoustic velocity of the same volume surrounding the borehole.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Bai-Jian Wei
2016-09-01
Full Text Available Resin transfer molding (RTM is a popular manufacturing technique that produces fiber reinforced polymer (FRP composites. In this paper, a model-assisted flow front control system is developed based on real-time estimation of permeability/porosity ratio using the information acquired by a visualization system. In the proposed control system, a radial basis function (RBF network meta-model is utilized to predict the position of the future flow front by inputting the injection pressure, the current position of flow front, and the estimated ratio. By conducting optimization based on the meta-model, the value of injection pressure to be implemented at each step is obtained. Moreover, a cascade control structure is established to further improve the control performance. Experiments show that the developed system successfully enhances the performance of flow front control in RTM. Especially, the cascade structure makes the control system robust to model mismatch.
Klein, Matthias S; Buttchereit, Nina; Miemczyk, Sebastian P; Immervoll, Ann-Kathrin; Louis, Caridad; Wiedemann, Steffi; Junge, Wolfgang; Thaller, Georg; Oefner, Peter J; Gronwald, Wolfram
2012-02-03
Ketosis is a common metabolic disease in dairy cows. Diagnostic markers for ketosis such as acetone and beta-hydroxybutyric acid (BHBA) are known, but disease prediction remains an unsolved challenge. Milk is a steadily available biofluid and routinely collected on a daily basis. This high availability makes milk superior to blood or urine samples for diagnostic purposes. In this contribution, we show that high milk glycerophosphocholine (GPC) levels and high ratios of GPC to phosphocholine (PC) allow for the reliable selection of healthy and metabolically stable cows for breeding purposes. Throughout lactation, high GPC values are connected with a low ketosis incidence. During the first month of lactation, molar GPC/PC ratios equal or greater than 2.5 indicate a very low risk for developing ketosis. This threshold was validated for different breeds (Holstein-Friesian, Brown Swiss, and Simmental Fleckvieh) and for animals in different lactations, with observed odds ratios between 1.5 and 2.38. In contrast to acetone and BHBA, these measures are independent of the acute disease status. A possible explanation for the predictive effect is that GPC and PC are measures for the ability to break down phospholipids as a fatty acid source to meet the enhanced energy requirements of early lactation.
Dewi Ratih, Iis; Sutijo Supri Ulama, Brodjol; Prastuti, Mike
2018-03-01
Value at Risk (VaR) is one of the statistical methods used to measure market risk by estimating the worst losses in a given time period and level of confidence. The accuracy of this measuring tool is very important in determining the amount of capital that must be provided by the company to cope with possible losses. Because there is a greater losses to be faced with a certain degree of probability by the greater risk. Based on this, VaR calculation analysis is of particular concern to researchers and practitioners of the stock market to be developed, thus getting more accurate measurement estimates. In this research, risk analysis of stocks in four banking sub-sector, Bank Rakyat Indonesia, Bank Mandiri, Bank Central Asia and Bank Negara Indonesia will be done. Stock returns are expected to be influenced by exogenous variables, namely ICI and exchange rate. Therefore, in this research, stock risk estimation are done by using VaR ARMAX-GARCHX method. Calculating the VaR value with the ARMAX-GARCHX approach using window 500 gives more accurate results. Overall, Bank Central Asia is the only bank had the estimated maximum loss in the 5% quantile.
Mu, Zhijian; Huang, Aiying; Ni, Jiupai; Xie, Deti
2014-01-01
Organic soils are an important source of N2O, but global estimates of these fluxes remain uncertain because measurements are sparse. We tested the hypothesis that N2O fluxes can be predicted from estimates of mineral nitrogen input, calculated from readily-available measurements of CO2 flux and soil C/N ratio. From studies of organic soils throughout the world, we compiled a data set of annual CO2 and N2O fluxes which were measured concurrently. The input of soil mineral nitrogen in these studies was estimated from applied fertilizer nitrogen and organic nitrogen mineralization. The latter was calculated by dividing the rate of soil heterotrophic respiration by soil C/N ratio. This index of mineral nitrogen input explained up to 69% of the overall variability of N2O fluxes, whereas CO2 flux or soil C/N ratio alone explained only 49% and 36% of the variability, respectively. Including water table level in the model, along with mineral nitrogen input, further improved the model with the explanatory proportion of variability in N2O flux increasing to 75%. Unlike grassland or cropland soils, forest soils were evidently nitrogen-limited, so water table level had no significant effect on N2O flux. Our proposed approach, which uses the product of soil-derived CO2 flux and the inverse of soil C/N ratio as a proxy for nitrogen mineralization, shows promise for estimating regional or global N2O fluxes from organic soils, although some further enhancements may be warranted.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Gouveia Diego
2018-01-01
Full Text Available Lidar measurements of cirrus clouds are highly influenced by multiple scattering (MS. We therefore developed an iterative approach to correct elastic backscatter lidar signals for multiple scattering to obtain best estimates of single-scattering cloud optical depth and lidar ratio as well as of the ice crystal effective radius. The approach is based on the exploration of the effect of MS on the molecular backscatter signal returned from above cloud top.
Gouveia, Diego; Baars, Holger; Seifert, Patric; Wandinger, Ulla; Barbosa, Henrique; Barja, Boris; Artaxo, Paulo; Lopes, Fabio; Landulfo, Eduardo; Ansmann, Albert
2018-04-01
Lidar measurements of cirrus clouds are highly influenced by multiple scattering (MS). We therefore developed an iterative approach to correct elastic backscatter lidar signals for multiple scattering to obtain best estimates of single-scattering cloud optical depth and lidar ratio as well as of the ice crystal effective radius. The approach is based on the exploration of the effect of MS on the molecular backscatter signal returned from above cloud top.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Demin, V.F.; Hedemann-Jensen, P.; Rolevich, I.V.; Schneider, T.S.; Sobolev, B.G.
1996-01-01
For assessment of accident consequences and a post-accident management a risk analysis methodology and data bank (BARD) with allowance for radiation and non-radiation risk causes should be developed and used. Aspects of these needs and developments are considered. Some illustrative results of health risk estimation made with BARD for the Bryansk region territory with relatively high radioactive contamination from the Chernobyl accident are presented
Azuma, Kenichi; Uchiyama, Iwao; Okumura, Jiro
2013-02-01
Legionella are widely found in the built environment. Patients with Legionnaires' disease have been increasing in Japan; however, health risks from Legionella bacteria in the environment are not appropriately assessed. We performed a quantitative health risk assessment modeled on residential bathrooms in the Adachi outbreak area and estimated risk levels. The estimated risks in the Adachi outbreak approximately corresponded to the risk levels exponentially extrapolated into lower levels on the basis of infection and mortality rates calculated from actual outbreaks, suggesting that the model of Legionnaires' disease in residential bathrooms was adequate to predict disease risk for the evaluated outbreaks. Based on this model, the infection and mortality risk levels per year in 10 CFU/100 ml (100 CFU/L) of the Japanese water quality guideline value were approximately 10(-2) and 10(-5), respectively. However, acceptable risk levels of infection and mortality from Legionnaires' disease should be adjusted to approximately 10(-4) and 10(-7), respectively, per year. Therefore, a reference value of 0.1 CFU/100 ml (1 CFU/L) as a water quality guideline for Legionella bacteria is recommended. This value is occasionally less than the actual detection limit. Legionella levels in water system should be maintained as low as reasonably achievable (<1 CFU/L). Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Remarks on models for estimating the carbohydrate to insulin ratio and insulin sensitivity in T1DM
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Tárnik, Marían; Bátora, Vladimír; Jørgensen, John Bagterp
2015-01-01
an integrator. This model maintains the benefits of the existing empirical models and allows simulation of a longer time period than the post-prandial period, i.e. the couple of hours following a meal. Furthermore, the new model proposed in this paper does not require any re-initialization before meals.......In this paper we estimate linear models for prediction of the interstitial glucose concentration in response to meals and bolus insulin. Parameters of these models can be directly used in simple bolus calculation rules. In contrast to models proposed in the literature, we present a model without...
Viso, Miguel; Rodríguez, Zulma; Loreto, Neydys; Fernández, Yolima; Callegari, Carlos; Nicita, Graciela; González, Julio; Cabrera de León, Antonio; Reigosa, Aldo
2011-12-01
In Venezuela as in the Canary Islands (Spain), cardiovascular disease is a major cause of morbidity and mortality. The purpose of this research is to estimate the cardiovascular risk in the Canary Islands migrants living in Venezuela and participating in the study cohort "CDC of the Canary Islands in Venezuela". 452 individuals, aged 18 to 93 years (54.9% women), were enrolled between June 2008 and August 2009. A data survey was performed and their weight, height, abdomen and hip circumferences, and blood pressure were measured. After a 12-hour fasting period, a blood sample was obtained for glucose and lipid profile determinations. 40.5% of the subjects were over 65 years of age and 8% corresponded to the younger group (18-30 years). In men, the average age was 57.69 +/- 18.17 years and the body mass index 29.39 +/- 5.71 kg/m2, whereas women were 56.50 +/- 16.91 years and 28.20 +/- 5.57 kg/m2, respectively. The prevalence of metabolic syndrome was 49.1%, overweight and obesity together 75,2%, abdominal obesity 85.4%, diabetes 17.4%, impaired fasting glucose (IFG) 12.2%, elevated blood pressure 52.9%, low HDL-cholesterol 53,8% and elevated serum triglycerides 31%. Among subjects without diabetes or IFG, a third showed a high triglycerides/HDL-cholesterol ratio, indicating insulin resistance. We conclude that the Canarian-Venezuelan community suffers high prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors (obesity, abdominal obesity, dyslipidemia, diabetes). In relation to the current population of the Canary Islands, they show a lower frequency of IFG and a higher frequency of low HDL-cholesterol. In comparison to the Venezuelan population (Zulia), they showed to have lower prevalence of IFG, low HDL cholesterol and elevated triglycerides.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Yoneyama, Tomohide; Fukukura, Yoshihiko; Kamimura, Kiyohisa; Takumi, Koji; Umanodan, Aya; Nakajo, Masayuki [Kagoshima University Graduate School of Medical and Dental Sciences, Department of Radiology, Kagoshima City (Japan); Ueno, Shinichi [Kagoshima University Graduate School of Medical and Dental Sciences, Department of Surgical Oncology and Digestive Surgery, Kagoshima City (Japan)
2014-04-15
We aimed to develop and assess the efficacy of a liver function index that combines liver enhancement and liver volume to standard liver volume (LV/SLV) ratio on gadolinium ethoxybenzyl diethylenetriaminepentaacetic acid (Gd-EOB-DTPA)-enhanced MRI. In all, 111 patients underwent a Gd-EOB-DTPA-enhanced MRI, including T1 mapping, before and 20 min after Gd-EOB-DTPA administration. We calculated the following Gd-EOB-DTPA-enhanced MRI-based liver function indices: relative enhancement of the liver, corrected enhancement of the liver-to-spleen ratio, LSC{sub N}20, increase rate of the liver-to-muscle ratio, reduction rate of T1 relaxation time of the liver, ΔR1 of the liver and K{sub Hep}; the indices were multiplied by the LV/SLV ratio. We calculated the correlations between an indocyanine green (ICG) clearance and the Gd-EOB-DTPA-enhanced MRI-based liver function indices multiplied by the LV/SLV ratio, by using Pearson correlation analysis. There were significant correlations between all Gd-EOB-DTPA-enhanced MRI-based liver function indices and ICG clearance (r = -0.354 to -0.574, P < 0.001). All Gd-EOB-DTPA-enhanced MRI-based liver function indices multiplied by the LV/SLV ratio (r = -0.394 to -0.700, P < 0.001) were more strongly correlated with the ICG clearance than those without multiplication by the LV/SLV ratio. Gd-EOB-DTPA-enhanced MRI-based liver function indices that combine liver enhancement and the LV/SLV ratio may more reliably estimate liver function. (orig.)
The Boehringer Ingelheim employee study (Part 2): 10-year cardiovascular diseases risk estimation.
Kempf, K; Martin, S; Döhring, C; Dugi, K; Haastert, B; Schneider, M
2016-10-01
Cardiovascular disease (CVD) may cause an economic burden to companies, but CVD risk estimations specific to working populations are lacking. To estimate the 10-year CVD risk in the Boehringer Ingelheim (BI) employee cohort and analyse the potential effect of hypothetical risk reduction interventions. We estimated CVD risk using the Framingham (FRS), PROCAM (PRS) and Reynolds (RRS) risk scores, using cross-sectional baseline data on BI Pharma employees collected from 2005 to 2011. Results were compared using Fisher's exact and Wilcoxon tests. The predictive ability of the score estimates was assessed using receiver-operating characteristics analyses. Among the 4005 study subjects, we estimated 10-year CVD risks of 35% (FRS), 9% (PRS) and 6% (RRS) for men and 10% (FRS), 4% (PRS) and 1% (RRS) for women. One hundred and thirty-four (6%) men and 111 (6%) women employees had current CVD. The best predictors of prevalent CVD were the FRS and the RRS for men [area-under-the-curve 0.62 (0.57-0.67) for both]. A hypothetical intervention that would improve systolic blood pressure, HbA1c (for diabetes), C-reactive protein, triglycerides and total and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol by 10% each would potentially reduce expected CVD cases by 36-41% in men and 30-45% in women, and if smoking cessation is incorporated, by 39-45% and 30-55%, respectively, depending on the pre-intervention risk score. There was a substantial risk of developing CVD in this working cohort. Occupational health programmes with lifestyle interventions for high-risk individuals may be an effective risk reduction measure. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society of Occupational Medicine. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Ishii, Iwao; Nakajima, Kenichi; Taki, Junichi; Taniguchi, Mitsuru; Bunko, Hisashi; Tonami, Norihisa; Hisada, Kinichi; Ohno, Takashi (Kanazawa Univ. (Japan). School of Medicine)
1993-01-01
The characteristics of correlation between the right-to-left ventricular systolic pressure ratios (RVp/LVp) and the thallium-201 right-to-left ventricular ([sup 201]Tl R/L) count ratios was investigated in children with various congenital heart diseases. High-resolution three-headed SPECT system equipped with either parallel-hole or fan-beam collimators was used. In a total of 102 patients, the correlation between RVp/LVp and [sup 201]Tl R/L average count ratios was good in both planar (r=0.89, p=0.0001) and SPECT studies (r=0.80, p=0.0001). Quantitative analysis of myocardial uptake by SPECT demonstrated the characteristic pattern of each disease as well as the differences in the right ventricular overload types. When the linear regression analysis was performed in each heart disease, ventricular septal defect showed most excellent correlation. Complex heart anomalies also showed positive correlation (r=0.51, p=0.05) with RVp/LVp, and it can be used to estimate right ventricular pressure. After surgical treatment of tetralogy of Fallot and pulmonary stenosis, the decrease of [sup 201]Tl R/L count ratio was in accordance with improvement of right ventricular overload. We conclude that [sup 201]Tl SPECT study can be a good indicator for estimation of right ventricular pressure. (author).
Siegerink, Bob; Meltzer, Mirjam E.; de Groot, Philip G.; Algra, Ale; Lisman, Ton; Rosendaal, Frits R.
Reduced overall fibrinolytic capacity increases the risk of myocardial infarction (MI), as demonstrated in studies with predominantly male participants. We determined the influence of altered fibrinolysis on the risk of MI and ischaemic stroke (IS) in young women. The RATIO (Risk of Arterial
Space Radiation Heart Disease Risk Estimates for Lunar and Mars Missions
Cucinotta, Francis A.; Chappell, Lori; Kim, Myung-Hee
2010-01-01
The NASA Space Radiation Program performs research on the risks of late effects from space radiation for cancer, neurological disorders, cataracts, and heart disease. For mortality risks, an aggregate over all risks should be considered as well as projection of the life loss per radiation induced death. We report on a triple detriment life-table approach to combine cancer and heart disease risks. Epidemiology results show extensive heterogeneity between populations for distinct components of the overall heart disease risks including hypertension, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and cerebrovascular diseases. We report on an update to our previous heart disease estimates for Heart disease (ICD9 390-429) and Stroke (ICD9 430-438), and other sub-groups using recent meta-analysis results for various exposed radiation cohorts to low LET radiation. Results for multiplicative and additive risk transfer models are considered using baseline rates for US males and female. Uncertainty analysis indicated heart mortality risks as low as zero, assuming a threshold dose for deterministic effects, and projections approaching one-third of the overall cancer risk. Medan life-loss per death estimates were significantly less than that of solid cancer and leukemias. Critical research questions to improve risks estimates for heart disease are distinctions in mechanisms at high doses (>2 Gy) and low to moderate doses (<2 Gy), and data and basic understanding of radiation doserate and quality effects, and individual sensitivity.
Satta, G; Mascia, N; Serra, T; Salis, A; Saba, L; Sanna, S; Zucca, M G; Angelucci, E; Gabbas, A; Culurgioni, F; Pili, P; Mura, E; Cappai, M; Ennas, M G; Cocco, P
2018-05-01
We investigated the association between environmental exposure to radiofrequency electromagnetic fields (RF-EMF) and risk of lymphoma subtypes in a case-control study comprised of 322 patients and 444 individuals serving as controls in Sardinia, Italy in 1998-2004. Questionnaire information included the self-reported distance of the three longest held residential addresses from fixed radio-television transmitters and mobile phone base stations. We georeferenced the residential addresses of all study subjects and obtained the spatial coordinates of mobile phone base stations. For each address within a 500-meter radius from a mobile phone base station, we estimated the RF-EMF intensity using predictions from spatial models, and we performed RF-EMF measurements at the door in the subset of the longest held addresses within a 250-meter radius. We calculated risk of lymphoma and its major subtypes associated with the RF-EMF exposure metrics with unconditional logistic regression, adjusting by age, gender and years of education. In the analysis of self-reported data, risk associated with residence in proximity (within 50 meters) to fixed radio-television transmitters was likewise elevated for lymphoma overall [odds ratio = 2.7, 95% confidence interval = 1.5-4.6], and for the major lymphoma subtypes. With reference to mobile phone base stations, we did not observe an association with either the self-reported, or the geocoded distance from mobile phone base stations. RF-EMF measurements did not vary by case-control status. By comparing the self-reports to the geocoded data, we discovered that the cases tended to underestimate the distance from mobile phone base stations differentially from the controls ( P = 0.073). The interpretation of our findings is compromised by the limited study size, particularly in the analysis of the individual lymphoma subtypes, and the unavailability of the spatial coordinates of radio-television transmitters. Nonetheless, our results do not
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Maharaj, H.P., E-mail: H_P_Maharaj@hc-sc.gc.ca [Health Canada, Dept. of Health, Consumer and Clinical Radiaton Protection Bureau, Ottawa, Ontario (Canada)
2016-03-15
This paper aims to provide an overview of an optimized benefit/risk ratio for a radiation emitting device. The device, which is portable, hand-held, and open-beam x-ray tube based, is utilized by a wide variety of industries for purposes of determining elemental or chemical analyses of materials in-situ based on fluorescent x-rays. These analyses do not cause damage or permanent alteration of the test materials and are considered a non-destructive test (NDT). Briefly, the key characteristics, principles of use and radiation hazards associated with the Hay device are presented and discussed. In view of the potential radiation risks, a long term strategy that incorporates risk factors and guiding principles intended to mitigate the radiation risks to the end user was considered and applied. Consequently, an operator certification program was developed on the basis of an International Standards Organization (ISO) standard (ISO 20807:2004) and in collaboration with various stake holders and was implemented by a federal national NDT certification body several years ago. It comprises a written radiation safety examination and hands-on training with the x-ray device. The operator certification program was recently revised and the changes appear beneficial. There is a fivefold increase in operator certification (Levels 1 a nd 2) to date compared with earlier years. Results are favorable and promising. An operational guidance document is available to help mitigate radiation risks. Operator certification in conjunction with the use of the operational guidance document is prudent, and is recommended for end users of the x-ray device. Manufacturers and owners of the x-ray devices will also benefit from the operational guidance document. (author)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Maharaj, H.P.
2016-01-01
This paper aims to provide an overview of an optimized benefit/risk ratio for a radiation emitting device. The device, which is portable, hand-held, and open-beam x-ray tube based, is utilized by a wide variety of industries for purposes of determining elemental or chemical analyses of materials in-situ based on fluorescent x-rays. These analyses do not cause damage or permanent alteration of the test materials and are considered a non-destructive test (NDT). Briefly, the key characteristics, principles of use and radiation hazards associated with the Hay device are presented and discussed. In view of the potential radiation risks, a long term strategy that incorporates risk factors and guiding principles intended to mitigate the radiation risks to the end user was considered and applied. Consequently, an operator certification program was developed on the basis of an International Standards Organization (ISO) standard (ISO 20807:2004) and in collaboration with various stake holders and was implemented by a federal national NDT certification body several years ago. It comprises a written radiation safety examination and hands-on training with the x-ray device. The operator certification program was recently revised and the changes appear beneficial. There is a fivefold increase in operator certification (Levels 1 a nd 2) to date compared with earlier years. Results are favorable and promising. An operational guidance document is available to help mitigate radiation risks. Operator certification in conjunction with the use of the operational guidance document is prudent, and is recommended for end users of the x-ray device. Manufacturers and owners of the x-ray devices will also benefit from the operational guidance document. (author)
A risk adjustment approach to estimating the burden of skin disease in the United States.
Lim, Henry W; Collins, Scott A B; Resneck, Jack S; Bolognia, Jean; Hodge, Julie A; Rohrer, Thomas A; Van Beek, Marta J; Margolis, David J; Sober, Arthur J; Weinstock, Martin A; Nerenz, David R; Begolka, Wendy Smith; Moyano, Jose V
2018-01-01
Direct insurance claims tabulation and risk adjustment statistical methods can be used to estimate health care costs associated with various diseases. In this third manuscript derived from the new national Burden of Skin Disease Report from the American Academy of Dermatology, a risk adjustment method that was based on modeling the average annual costs of individuals with or without specific diseases, and specifically tailored for 24 skin disease categories, was used to estimate the economic burden of skin disease. The results were compared with the claims tabulation method used in the first 2 parts of this project. The risk adjustment method estimated the direct health care costs of skin diseases to be $46 billion in 2013, approximately $15 billion less than estimates using claims tabulation. For individual skin diseases, the risk adjustment cost estimates ranged from 11% to 297% of those obtained using claims tabulation for the 10 most costly skin disease categories. Although either method may be used for purposes of estimating the costs of skin disease, the choice of method will affect the end result. These findings serve as an important reference for future discussions about the method chosen in health care payment models to estimate both the cost of skin disease and the potential cost impact of care changes. Copyright © 2017 American Academy of Dermatology, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Till, J.E.; Meyer, K.R.
1988-01-01
Many radioactive waste sites contain not only radioactive material but also varying amounts of chemical waste. The use of such procedures implies some risk at any exposure level, and thus requires that an exposure level be determined that corresponds to an acceptable risk to an individual or a population. Although the uncertainties and limitations of these methods are of concern, the assumption has been generally adopted that the human dose response for all carcinogens is linear, with no threshold occurring at low levels of exposure. With the move toward decontamination programs and clean-up of various mixed waste sites throughout the US, there is interest in the possibility that risk estimates calculated individually for radionuclides and for chemicals may be combined to reflect the total risk for each site. The purpose of this paper is to examine the feasibility of combining risk estimates during risk/benefit analyses. For a variety of reasons, the state of radiation risk assessment is more advanced than that of chemical risk assessment. The reasons for this disparity are summarized in this paper. Quantitative radiation risk assessment is currently being performed, but involves a high degree of uncertainty. Chemical risk assessment in general does not allow quantitative results bracketed by uncertainty analysis. Therefore, it is concluded that it is currently not possible to develop a useful, quantitative combined risk assessment for a mixed waste site, but that it may be possible to develop such a capability in the future
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hashizume, T; Maruyama, T [National Inst. of Radiological Sciences, Chiba (Japan)
1980-12-01
For the risk estimate of fatal malignancies, an effective dose was proposed on the basis of the assumption that the risk should be equal whether the whole body irradiated uniformly or whether there is non-uniform irradiation. The effective dose was defined by the product of organ or tissue doses and a weighting factor representing the proportion of risk factor for a fatal malignancy resulting from organ or tissue irradiation to the total malignant factor. The risk of malignancies can be derived by multiplying the malignant significant factor by the product of the risk factor and the effective dose. For the genetic risk, a significant factor was a relative child expectancy and organ or tissue doses were gonad doses. And, for the leukemogenic risk, a significant factor was the leukemia significant factor and organ or tissue dose was mean bone marrow dose. The present method makes it easy to estimate the risk for individuals and population from medical and occupational exposures. The variation with age and sex of risk rates for stochastic effects was discussed, and the present data on risk rates were compared with the variation of risk rates recommended by the International Commission on Radiological Protection.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Miles McQueen; Wayne Boyer; Mark Flynn; Sam Alessi
2006-03-01
For the past year we have applied a variety of risk assessment technologies to evaluate the risk to critical infrastructure from cyber attacks on control systems. More recently, we identified the need for a stand alone control system risk reduction estimation tool to provide owners and operators of control systems with a more useable, reliable, and credible method for managing the risks from cyber attack. Risk is defined as the probability of a successful attack times the value of the resulting loss, typically measured in lives and dollars. Qualitative and ad hoc techniques for measuring risk do not provide sufficient support for cost benefit analyses associated with cyber security mitigation actions. To address the need for better quantitative risk reduction models we surveyed previous quantitative risk assessment research; evaluated currently available tools; developed new quantitative techniques [17] [18]; implemented a prototype analysis tool to demonstrate how such a tool might be used; used the prototype to test a variety of underlying risk calculational engines (e.g. attack tree, attack graph); and identified technical and research needs. We concluded that significant gaps still exist and difficult research problems remain for quantitatively assessing the risk to control system components and networks, but that a useable quantitative risk reduction estimation tool is not beyond reach.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Kotsyuba Oleksiy S.
2018-02-01
Full Text Available The article is concerned with the methodology of economic substantiation of real investments in case of considerable lack of information on possible fluctuations of initial parameters and the resulting risk. The analysis of sensitivity as the main instrument for accounting the risk in the indicated problem situation is the focus of the presented research. In the publication, on the basis of the apparatus of interval mathematics, a set of models for comparative estimation of economic attractiveness (efficiency of alternative investment projects in conditions of uncertainty and risk is formulated, using the sensitivity analysis. The developed instrumentarium assumes both mono- and poly-interval version of the sensitivity analysis. As the risk component in the constructed models is used: in some – values of the specially developed sensitivity coefficient, in others – the worst values, which are based on the interval estimations of the partial criteria of efficiency. The sensitivity coefficient, according to the approach proposed in the publication, is the ratio of the target semi-range of variation to the increase (economy of efficiency, which is provided when the basic level of the analyzed partial criterion of economic attractiveness in comparison with some of its threshold (limit value is being reached.
The impact of advances in human molecular biology on radiation genetic risk estimation in man
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sankaranarayanan, K.
1996-01-01
This paper provides an overview of the conceptual framework, the data base, methods and assumptions used thus far to assess the genetic risks of exposure of human populations to ionising radiation. These are then re-examined in the contemporary context of the rapidly expanding knowledge of the molecular biology of human mendelian diseases. This re-examination reveals that (i) many of the assumptions used thus far in radiation genetic risk estimation may not be fully valid and (ii) the current genetic risk estimates are probably conservative, but provide an adequate margin of safety for radiological protection. The view is expressed that further advances in the field of genetic risk estimation will be largely driven by advances in the molecular biology of human genetic diseases. (author). 37 refs., 5 tabs
Occupational and consumer risk estimates for nanoparticles emitted by laser printers
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Haenninen, Otto; Brueske-Hohlfeld, Irene; Loh, Miranda; Stoeger, Tobias; Kreyling, Wolfgang; Schmid, Otmar; Peters, Annette
2010-01-01
Several studies have reported laser printers as significant sources of nanosized particles ( -1 ; particle number 1.1-3.1 x 10 9 d -1 ) were estimated to correspond to 4-13 (mass) or 12-34 (number) deaths per million persons exposed on the basis of epidemiological risk estimates for ambient particles. These risks are higher than the generally used definition of acceptable risk of 1 x 10 -6 , but substantially lower than the estimated risks due to ambient particles. Toxicological studies on ambient particles revealed consistent values for lowest observed effect levels (LOELs) which were converted into equivalent daily uptakes using allometric scaling. These LOEL uptakes were by a factor of about 330-1,000 (mass) and 1,000-2,500 (particle surface area) higher than estimated uptakes from printers. This toxicological assessment would indicate no significant health risks due to printer particles. Finally, our study suggests that particle number (not mass) and mass (not surface area) are the most conservative risk metrics for the epidemiological and toxicological risks presented here, respectively.
Kumar, Rahul
2017-02-01
Institutional review boards (IRB) normally require of a morally defensible clinical trial that any trial participant will benefit from the inquiry, or at least not be exposed to a significant risk of having their prospects worsened by participating. Stage 1 HIV cure trials tend not to meet this requirement. Does that show them to be morally indefensible? Utilitarian thinking about this question supports a negative answer. But one might reasonably expect a Kantian moral theory to support the conclusion that exposing trial participants to a significant risk of their prospects being worsened by their participation to be morally indefensible, on grounds that this would be a clear case of using a person as a mere means. In this paper, I argue, drawing on Kantian contractualist thinking, that requiring the risk/benefit ratio for participants be positive if a trial is to be morally defensible does not in fact gain any support from Kantian thinking about morality. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.
Effects of risk estimation tendency on risk perception at the Tohoku Disaster
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Nakagawa, Yuri; Tsuchida, Shoji; Tsujikawa, Norifumi; Shiotani, Takamasa
2012-01-01
The Tohoku Disaster showed the underlying risks of earthquake, tsunami, nuclear power plant accidents and debris removal. The ability to understand the risk and act appropriately has been widely discussed among the professionals as well within the community. In Oct 2011, an Online survey. Using the correspondence analysis approach, the data collected the free-answer question 'What do you remember most regarding news on the Tohoku Disaster' was analyzed. The relationship between the cognitive trade-off factors, zero-risk factors and elaboration tendency factors, and risk perception among the people following the Tohoku Disaster were discussed. (author)
Zweiker, David; Zweiker, Robert; Winkler, Elisabeth; Roesch, Konstantina; Schumacher, Martin; Stepan, Vinzenz; Krippl, Peter; Bauer, Norbert; Heine, Martin; Reicht, Gerhard; Zweiker, Gudrun; Sprenger, Martin; Watzinger, Norbert
2017-09-25
Oral anticoagulation (OAC) is state-of-the-art therapy for atrial fibrillation (AF), the most common arrhythmia worldwide. However, little is known about the perception of patients with AF and how it correlates with risk scores used by their physicians. Therefore, we correlated patients' estimates of their own stroke and bleeding risk with the objectively predicted individual risk using CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc and HAS-BLED scores. Cross-sectional prevalence study using convenience sampling and telephone follow-up. Eight hospital departments and one general practitioner in Austria. Patients' perception of stroke and bleeding risk was opposed to commonly used risk scoring. Patients with newly diagnosed AF and indication for anticoagulation. Comparison of subjective risk perception with CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc and HAS-BLED scores showing possible discrepancies between subjective and objective risk estimation. Patients' judgement of their own knowledge on AF and education were also correlated with accuracy of subjective risk appraisal. Ninety-one patients (age 73±11 years, 45% female) were included in this study. Subjective stroke and bleeding risk estimation did not correlate with risk scores (ρ=0.08 and ρ=0.17). The majority of patients (57%) underestimated the individual stroke risk. Patients feared stroke more than bleeding (67% vs 10%). There was no relationship between accurate perception of stroke and bleeding risks and education level. However, we found a correlation between the patients' judgement of their own knowledge of AF and correct assessment of individual stroke risk (ρ=0.24, p=0.02). During follow-up, patients experienced the following events: death (n=5), stroke (n=2), bleeding (n=1). OAC discontinuation rate despite indication was 3%. In this cross-sectional analysis of OAC-naive patients with AF, we found major differences between patients' perceptions and physicians' assessments of risks and benefits of OAC. To ensure shared decision-making and informed
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Narayan, P.; Suri, S.; Choudhary, S.R.
2001-01-01
In most general definition, noise in an image, is any variation that represents a deviation from truth. Noise sources in MRI can be systematic or random and statistical in nature. Data processing algorithms that smooth and enhance the edges by non-linear intensity assignments among other factors can affect the distribution of statistical noise. The SNR and image uniformity depends on the various parameters of NMR imaging system (viz. General system calibration, Gain coil tuning, AF shielding, coil loading, image processing and scan parameters like TE, TR, interslice distance, slice thickness, pixel size and matrix size). A study on SNR and image uniformity have been performed using standard head AF coil with different TR and the estimates of their variation are presented. A comparison between different techniques has also been evaluated using standard protocol of the Siemens Magnetom Vision Plus MRI system
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Tunestaal, Per
2000-03-01
This thesis investigates the use of cylinder pressure measurements for estimation of the in-cylinder air/fuel ratio in a spark ignited internal combustion engine. An estimation model which uses the net heat release profile for estimating the cylinder air/fuel ratio of a spark ignition engine is developed. The net heat release profile is computed from the cylinder pressure trace and quantifies the conversion of chemical energy of the reactants in the charge into thermal energy. The net heat release profile does not take heat- or mass transfer into account. Cycle-averaged air/fuel ratio estimates over a range of engine speeds and loads show an RMS error of 4.1% compared to measurements in the exhaust. A thermochemical model of the combustion process in an internal combustion engine is developed. It uses a simple chemical combustion reaction, polynominal fits of internal energy as function of temperature, and the first law of thermodynamics to derive a relationship between measured cylinder pressure and the progress of the combustion process. Simplifying assumptions are made to arrive at an equation which relates the net heat release to the cylinder pressure. Two methods for estimating the sensor offset of a cylinder pressure transducer are developed. Both methods fit the pressure data during the pre-combustion phase of the compression stroke to a polytropic curve. The first method assumes a known polytropic exponent, and the other estimates the polytropic exponent. The first method results in a linear least-squares problem, and the second method results in a nonlinear least-squares problem. The nonlinear least-squares problem is solved by separating out the nonlinear dependence and solving the single-variable minimization problem. For this, a finite difference Newton method is derived. Using this method, the cost of solving the nonlinear least-squares problem is only slightly higher than solving the linear least-squares problem. Both methods show good statistical
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Richard A. Young
2017-12-01
Full Text Available Dingus and colleagues (Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 2016, 113, 2636–2641 reported a crash odds ratio (OR estimate of 2.2 with a 95% confidence interval (CI from 1.6 to 3.1 for hand-held cell phone conversation (hereafter, “Talk” in the SHRP 2 naturalistic driving database. This estimate is substantially higher than the effect sizes near one in prior real-world and naturalistic driving studies of conversation on wireless cellular devices (whether hand-held, hands-free portable, or hands-free integrated. Two upward biases were discovered in the Dingus study. First, it selected many Talk-exposed drivers who simultaneously performed additional secondary tasks besides Talk but selected Talk-unexposed drivers with no secondary tasks. This “selection bias” was removed by: (1 filtering out records with additional tasks from the Talk-exposed group; or (2 adding records with other tasks to the Talk-unexposed group. Second, it included records with driver behavior errors, a confounding bias that was also removed by filtering out such records. After removing both biases, the Talk OR point estimates declined to below 1, now consistent with prior studies. Pooling the adjusted SHRP 2 Talk OR estimates with prior study effect size estimates to improve precision, the population effect size for wireless cellular conversation while driving is estimated as 0.72 (CI 0.60–0.88.
Eaton, Danice K.; Brener, Nancy D.; Kann, Laura; Denniston, Maxine M.; McManus, Tim; Kyle, Tonja M.; Roberts, Alice M.; Flint, Katherine H.; Ross, James G.
2010-01-01
The authors examined whether paper-and-pencil and Web surveys administered in the school setting yield equivalent risk behavior prevalence estimates. Data were from a methods study conducted by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in spring 2008. Intact classes of 9th- or 10th-grade students were assigned randomly to complete a…
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Bollerslev, Tim; Gibson, Michael; Zhou, Hao
experiment confirms that the procedure works well in practice. Implementing the procedure with actual S&P500 option-implied volatilities and high-frequency five-minute-based realized volatilities indicates significant temporal dependencies in the estimated stochastic volatility risk premium, which we in turn...
Geostatistical risk estimation at waste disposal sites in the presence of hot spots
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Komnitsas, Kostas; Modis, Kostas
2009-01-01
The present paper aims to estimate risk by using geostatistics at the wider coal mining/waste disposal site of Belkovskaya, Tula region, in Russia. In this area the presence of hot spots causes a spatial trend in the mean value of the random field and a non-Gaussian data distribution. Prior to application of geostatistics, subtraction of trend and appropriate smoothing and transformation of the data into a Gaussian form were carried out; risk maps were then generated for the wider study area in order to assess the probability of exceeding risk thresholds. Finally, the present paper discusses the need for homogenization of soil risk thresholds regarding hazardous elements that will enhance reliability of risk estimation and enable application of appropriate rehabilitation actions in contaminated areas.
Scoring Systems for Estimating the Risk of Anticoagulant-Associated Bleeding.
Parks, Anna L; Fang, Margaret C
2017-07-01
Anticoagulant medications are frequently used to prevent and treat thromboembolic disease. However, the benefits of anticoagulants must be balanced with a careful assessment of the risk of bleeding complications that can ensue from their use. Several bleeding risk scores are available, including the Outpatient Bleeding Risk Index, HAS-BLED, ATRIA, and HEMORR 2 HAGES risk assessment tools, and can be used to help estimate patients' risk for bleeding on anticoagulants. These tools vary by their individual risk components and in how they define and weigh clinical factors. However, it is not yet clear how best to integrate bleeding risk tools into clinical practice. Current bleeding risk scores generally have modest predictive ability and limited ability to predict the most devastating complication of anticoagulation, intracranial hemorrhage. In clinical practice, bleeding risk tools should be paired with a formal determination of thrombosis risk, as their results may be most influential for patients at the lower end of thrombosis risk, as well as for highlighting potentially modifiable risk factors for bleeding. Use of bleeding risk scores may assist clinicians and patients in making informed and individualized anticoagulation decisions. Thieme Medical Publishers 333 Seventh Avenue, New York, NY 10001, USA.
Scholte op Reimer, Wilma J M; Moons, Philip; De Geest, Sabina; Fridlund, Bengt; Heikkilä, Johanna; Jaarsma, Tiny; Lenzen, Mattie; Martensson, Jan; Norekvål, Tone M; Smith, Karen; Stewart, Simon; Strömberg, Anna; Thompson, David R
2006-12-01
Nurses play a key role in the prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and one would, therefore, expect them to have a heightened awareness of the need for systematic screening and their own CVD risk profile. The aim of this study was to examine personal awareness of CVD risk among a cohort of cardiovascular nurses attending a European conference. Of the 340 delegates attending the 5th annual Spring Meeting on Cardiovascular Nursing (Basel, Switzerland, 2005), 287 (83%) completed a self-report questionnaire to assess their own risk factors for CVD. Delegates were also asked to give an estimation of their absolute total risk of experiencing a fatal CVD event in the next 10 years. Level of agreement between self-reported CVD risk estimation and their actual risk according to the SCORE risk assessment system was compared by calculating weighted Kappa (kappa(w)). Overall, 109 responders (38%) self-reported having either pre-existing CVD (only 2%), one or more markedly raised CVD risk factors, a high total risk of fatal CVD (> or =5% in 10 years) or a strong family history of CVD. About half of this cohort (53%) did not know their own total cholesterol level. Less than half (45%) reported having a 10-year risk of fatal CVD of or =5%. Based on the SCORE risk function, the estimated 10-year risk of a fatal CVD event was or =5% risk of such an event. Overall, less than half (46%) of this cohort's self-reported CVD risk corresponded with that calculated using the SCORE risk function (kappa(w)=0.27). Most cardiovascular nurses attending a European conference in 2005 poorly understood their own CVD risk profile, and the agreement between their self-reported 10-year risk of a fatal CVD and their CVD risk using SCORE was only fair. Given the specialist nature of this conference, our findings clearly demonstrate a need to improve overall nursing awareness of the role and importance of systematic CVD risk assessment.
Du, Tingting; Yuan, Gang; Zhang, Muxun; Zhou, Xinrong; Sun, Xingxing; Yu, Xuefeng
2014-10-20
To directly compare traditional lipid ratios (total cholesterol [TC]/high density lipoprotein cholesterol [HDL-C], non-HDL-C/HDL-C, low density lipoprotein cholesterol [LDL-C]/HDL-C, and triglycerides [TG]/HDL-C), apolipoprotein B (apoB)/apolipoprotein A-I (apoA-I) ratio, visceral adiposity index (VAI), lipid accumulation product (LAP), and the product of TG and fasting glucose (TyG) for strength and independence as risk factors for insulin resistance (IR). We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of 7629 Chinese adults using data from the China Health and Nutrition Survey 2009. For all lipid ratios (traditional lipid ratios and apoB/apoA-I), among both sexes, TG/HDL-C explained the most additional percentage of variation in HOMA-IR (2.9% in men, and 2.3% in women); for all variables of interest, the variability in HOMA-IR explained by VAI and TG/HDL-C were comparable; TyG had the most significant association with HOMA-IR, which explained 9.1% for men and 7.8% for women of the variability in HOMA-IR. Logistic regression analysis showed the similar patterns. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis showed that, among both sexes, TG/HDL-C was a better discriminator of IR than apoB/apoA-I; the area under the ROC curve (AUC) for VAI (0.695 in men and 0.682 in women) was greater than that for TG/HDL-C (AUC 0.665 in men and 0.664 in women); TyG presented the greatest value of AUC (0.709 in men and 0.711 in women). The apoB/apoA-I performs no better than any of the traditional lipid ratios in correlating with IR. The TG/HDL-C, VAI and TyG are better markers for early identification of IR individuals.
Mwanza, J C; Grover, D S; Budenz, D L; Herndon, L W; Nolan, W; Whiteside-de Vos, J; Hay-Smith, G; Bandi, J R; Bhansali, K A; Forbes, L A; Feuer, W J; Barton, K
2017-08-01
PurposeTo determine if there are systematic differences in cup-to-disc ratio (CDR) grading using fundus biomicroscopy compared to stereoscopic disc photograph reading.MethodsThe vertical cup-to-disc ratio (VCDR) and horizontal cup-to-disc ratio (HCDR) of 2200 eyes (testing set) were graded by glaucoma subspecialists through fundus biomicroscopy and by a reading center using stereoscopic disc photos. For validation, the glaucoma experts also estimated VCDR and HCDR using stereoscopic disc photos in a subset of 505 eyes that they had assessed biomicroscopically. Agreement between grading methods was assessed with Bland-Altman plots.ResultsIn both sets, photo reading tended to yield small CDRs marginally larger, but read large CDRs marginally smaller than fundus biomicroscopy. The mean differences in VCDR and HCDR were 0.006±0.18 and 0.05±0.18 (testing set), and -0.053±0.23 and -0.028±0.21 (validation set), respectively. The limits of agreement were ~0.4, which is twice as large as the cutoff of clinically significant CDR difference between methods. CDR estimates differed by 0.2 or more in 33.8-48.7% between methods.ConclusionsThe differences in CDR estimates between fundus biomicroscopy and stereoscopic optic disc photo reading showed a wide variation, and reached clinically significance threshold in a large proportion of patients, suggesting a poor agreement. Thus, glaucoma should be monitored by comparing baseline and subsequent CDR estimates using the same method rather than comparing photographs to fundus biomicroscopy.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Shirali, Mahmoud; Varley, Patrick Francis; Jensen, Just
2018-01-01
meat percentage (LMP) along with the derived traits of RFI and FCR; and (3) deriving Bayesian estimates of direct and correlated responses to selection on RFI, FCR, ADG, ADFI, and LMP. Response to selection was defined as the difference in additive genetic mean of the selected top individuals, expected......, respectively. Selection against RFIG showed a direct response of − 0.16 kg/d and correlated responses of − 0.16 kg/kg for FCR and − 0.15 kg/d for ADFI, with no effect on other production traits. Selection against FCR resulted in a direct response of − 0.17 kg/kg and correlated responses of − 0.14 kg/d for RFIG......, − 0.18 kg/d for ADFI, and 0.98% for LMP. Conclusions: The Bayesian methodology developed here enables prediction of breeding values for FCR and RFI from a single multi-variate model. In addition, we derived posterior distributions of direct and correlated responses to selection. Genetic parameter...
Estimating oil price 'Value at Risk' using the historical simulation approach
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cabedo, J.D.; Moya, I.
2003-01-01
In this paper we propose using Value at Risk (VaR) for oil price risk quantification. VaR provides an estimation for the maximum oil price change associated with a likelihood level, and can be used for designing risk management strategies. We analyse three VaR calculation methods: the historical simulation standard approach, the historical simulation with ARMA forecasts (HSAF) approach. developed in this paper, and the variance-covariance method based on autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models forecasts. The results obtained indicate that HSAF methodology provides a flexible VaR quantification, which fits the continuous oil price movements well and provides an efficient risk quantification. (author)
Estimating oil price 'Value at Risk' using the historical simulation approach
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
David Cabedo, J.; Moya, Ismael
2003-01-01
In this paper we propose using Value at Risk (VaR) for oil price risk quantification. VaR provides an estimation for the maximum oil price change associated with a likelihood level, and can be used for designing risk management strategies. We analyse three VaR calculation methods: the historical simulation standard approach, the historical simulation with ARMA forecasts (HSAF) approach, developed in this paper, and the variance-covariance method based on autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models forecasts. The results obtained indicate that HSAF methodology provides a flexible VaR quantification, which fits the continuous oil price movements well and provides an efficient risk quantification
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Latimer Jane
2008-06-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Although it is widely appreciated that vigorous physical activity can increase the risk of bleeding episodes in children with haemophilia, the magnitude of the increase in risk is not known. Accurate risk estimates could inform decisions made by children with haemophilia and their parents about participation in physical activity and aid the development of optimal prophylactic schedules. The aim of this study is to provide an accurate estimate of the risks of bleeding associated with vigorous physical activity in children with haemophilia. Methods/Design The study will be a case-crossover study nested within a prospective cohort study. Children with moderate or severe haemophilia A or B, recruited from two paediatric haematology departments in Australia, will participate in the study. The child, or the child's parent or guardian, will report bleeding episodes experienced over a 12-month period. Following a bleeding episode, the participant will be interviewed by telephone about exposures to physical activity in the case period (8 hours before the bleed and 2 control periods (an 8 hour period at the same time on the day preceding the bleed and an 8 hour period two days preceding the bleed. Conditional logistic regression will be used to estimate the risk of participating in vigorous physical activity from measures of exposure to physical activity in the case and control periods. Discussion This case-control study will provide estimates of the risk of participation in vigorous physical activity in children with haemophilia.
Report on some methods of determining the state of convergence of Monte Carlo risk estimates
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Orford, J.L.; Hufton, D.; Johnson, K.
1991-05-01
The Department of the Environment is developing a methodology for assessing potential sites for the disposal of low and intermediate level radioactive wastes. Computer models are used to simulate the groundwater transport of radioactive materials from a disposal facility back to man. Monte Carlo methods are being employed to conduct a probabilistic risk assessment (pra) of potential sites. The models calculate time histories of annual radiation dose to the critical group population. The annual radiation dose to the critical group in turn specifies the annual individual risk. The distribution of dose is generally highly skewed and many simulation runs are required to predict the level of confidence in the risk estimate i.e. to determine whether the risk estimate is converged. This report describes some statistical methods for determining the state of convergence of the risk estimate. The methods described include the Shapiro-Wilk test, calculation of skewness and kurtosis and normal probability plots. A method for forecasting the number of samples needed before the risk estimate is converged is presented. Three case studies were conducted to examine the performance of some of these techniques. (author)
Shih, Hsiu-Ching; Crawford-Brown, Douglas; Ma, Hwong-wen
2015-03-15
these differences are small compared to uncertainties in health risk assessment more generally, the ranks of different regions and of emissions categories as the focus of regulatory efforts estimated at these four levels of spatial resolution are quite different. The results suggest that issues of risk equity within a nation might be missed by the lower levels of spatial resolution, suggesting that low resolution models are suited to calculating national cost-benefit ratios but not as suited to assessing co-benefits of climate policies reflecting intersubject variability in risk, or in identifying sub-national regions and emissions sectors on which to focus attention (although even here, the errors introduced by low spatial resolution are generally less than 40%). Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Estimating risk at a Superfund site contaminated with radiological and chemical wastes
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Temeshy, A.; Liedle, J.M.; Sims, L.M.; Efird, C.R.
1992-01-01
This paper describes the method and results for estimating carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic effects at a Superfund site that is radiologically and chemically contaminated. Risk to receptors from disposal of waste in soil and resulting contamination of groundwater, air, surface water, and sediment is quantified. Specific risk assessment components which are addressed are the exposure assessment, toxicity assessment, and the resulting risk characterization. In the exposure assessment, potential exposure pathways are identified using waste disposal inventory information for soil and modeled information for other media. Models are used to calculate future radionuclide concentrations in groundwater, soil, surface water and air. Chemical exposure concentrations are quantified using site characterization data. Models are used to determine concentrations of chemicals in surface water and in air. Toxicity parameters used to quantify the dose-response relationship associated with the carcinogenic contaminants are slope factors and with noncarcinogenic contaminants are reference doses. In the risk characterization step, results from the exposure assessment and toxicity assessment are summarized and integrated into quantitative risk estimates for carcinogens and hazard induces for noncarcinogens. Calculated risks for carcinogenic contaminants are compared with EPA's target risk range. At WAG 6, the risk from radionuclides and chemicals for an on-WAG homesteader exceeds EPA's target risk range. Hazard indices are compared to unity for noncarcinogenic contaminants. At WAG 6, the total pathway hazard index for the on-WAG homesteader exceeds unity
Estimating the Health Risk Associated with the Use of Ecological Sanitation Toilets in Malawi
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Save Kumwenda
2017-01-01
Full Text Available Use of Ecological Sanitation (EcoSan sludge is becoming popular due to increasing price of organic fertilizers in Malawi; however, there is little evidence on the associated risks. Quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA was done to determine health risks associated with use of EcoSan. Pathogens considered included Escherichia coli (E. coli, Salmonella, and soil transmitted helminths (STHs. Exponential and Beta Poisson models were used to estimate the risk from helminthic and bacterial pathogens, respectively. Main exposure pathways were through poor storage of sludge, contamination of foods during drying, walking barefoot on the ground contaminated with sludge, pit emptying without protection, and application of sludge in the fields. Estimated annual risk for Ascaris lumbricoides, Taenia, and hookworms was approximately over 5.6 × 10−1 for both Fossa Alternas (FAs and Urine Diverting Dry Toilet (UDDTs. Risk from E. coli and Salmonella was 8.9 × 10−2 and above. The risks were higher than WHO acceptable risk for use of faecal sludge in crops of 10−4 infections per year. Promoters and users of EcoSan latrines need to consider advocating for strict guidelines to reduce the risk.
Kong, Weiping; Huang, Wenjiang; Zhou, Xianfeng; Song, Xiaoyu; Casa, Raffaele
2016-04-01
Precise estimation of carotenoids (Car) content in plants, from remotely sensed data, is challenging due to their small proportion in the overall total pigment content and to the overlapping of spectral absorption features with chlorophyll (Chl) in the blue region of the spectrum. The use of narrow band vegetation indices (VIs) obtained from hyperspectral data has been considered an effective way to estimate Car content. However, VIs have proved to lack sensitivity to low or high Car content in a number of studies. In this study, the carotenoid triangle ratio index (CTRI), derived from the existing modified triangular vegetation index and a single band reflectance at 531 nm, was proposed and employed to