WorldWideScience

Sample records for risk ratings combining

  1. Abdominoplasty: Risk Factors, Complication Rates, and Safety of Combined Procedures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winocour, Julian; Gupta, Varun; Ramirez, J Roberto; Shack, R Bruce; Grotting, James C; Higdon, K Kye

    2015-11-01

    Among aesthetic surgery procedures, abdominoplasty is associated with a higher complication rate, but previous studies are limited by small sample sizes or single-institution experience. A cohort of patients who underwent abdominoplasty between 2008 and 2013 was identified from the CosmetAssure database. Major complications were recorded. Univariate and multivariate analysis was performed evaluating risk factors, including age, smoking, body mass index, sex, diabetes, type of surgical facility, and combined procedures. The authors identified 25,478 abdominoplasties from 183,914 procedures in the database. Of these, 8,975 patients had abdominoplasty alone and 16,503 underwent additional procedures. The number of complications recorded was 1,012 (4.0 percent overall rate versus 1.4 percent in other aesthetic surgery procedures). Of these, 31.5 percent were hematomas, 27.2 percent were infections and 20.2 percent were suspected or confirmed venous thromboembolism. On multivariate analysis, significant risk factors (p procedures (1.5), and procedure performance in a hospital or surgical center versus office-based surgical suite (1.6). Combined procedures increased the risk of complication (abdominoplasty alone, 3.1 percent; with liposuction, 3.8 percent; breast procedure, 4.3 percent; liposuction and breast procedure, 4.6 percent; body-contouring procedure, 6.8 percent; liposuction and body-contouring procedure, 10.4 percent). Abdominoplasty is associated with a higher complication rate compared with other aesthetic procedures. Combined procedures can significantly increase complication rates and should be considered carefully in higher risk patients. Risk, II.

  2. Interest Rate Risk Management and the Use of Derivative Securities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ioana-Diana PĂUN

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to demonstrate the utility of derivative financial instruments for the management of interest rate risk that is faced by banks and financial institutions, and to provide an efficient flow of monitoring and control thereof. Banking institutions can now use a combination of balance sheet and off balance sheet measures, i.e. gap method, of interest rate risk management, in order to control exposure of short-term rates and derivatives to control the residual interest rate exposures. The result of the study shows that banks can achieve better diversification and risk management using derivatives.

  3. Combination of pegylated IFN-α2b with imatinib increases molecular response rates in patients with low- or intermediate-risk chronic myeloid leukemia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Simonsson, Bengt; Gedde-Dahl, Tobias; Markevärn, Berit

    2011-01-01

    Biologic and clinical observations suggest that combining imatinib with IFN-a may improve treatment outcome in chronic myeloid leukemia (CML). We randomized newly diagnosed chronic-phase CML patients with a low or intermediate Sokal risk score and in imatinib-induced complete hematologic remission......%) discontinued imatinib treatment (1 because of blastic transformation in imatinib arm). In addition, in the combination arm, 34 patients (61%) discontinued Peg-IFN-a2b, most because of toxicity. The MMR rate at 12 months was significantly higher in the imatinib plus Peg-IFN-a2b arm (82%) compared...... with the imatinib monotherapy arm (54%; intention-to-treat, P = .002). The MMR rate increased with the duration of Peg-IFN-a2b treatment ( 12-week MMR rate 91%). Thus, the addition of even relatively short periods of Peg-IFN-a2b to imatinib markedly increased the MMR rate at 12 months...

  4. 13 CFR 120.1015 - Risk Rating System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 13 Business Credit and Assistance 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk Rating System. 120.1015 Section 120.1015 Business Credit and Assistance SMALL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION BUSINESS LOANS Risk-Based Lender Oversight Supervision § 120.1015 Risk Rating System. (a) Risk Rating. SBA may assign a Risk Rating...

  5. Low home ventilation rate in combination with moldy odor from the building structure increase the risk for allergic symptoms in children

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hägerhed-Engman, L.; Sigsgaard, T.; Samuelson, I.

    2009-01-01

    There are consistent findings on associations between asthma and allergy symptoms and residential mold and moisture. However, definitions of 'dampness' in studies are diverse because of differences in climate and building construction. Few studies have estimated mold problems inside the building...... ventilation rate in combination with moldy odor along the skirting board further increased the risk for three out of four studied outcomes, indicating that the ventilation rate is an effect modifier for indoor pollutants.This study showed that mold odor at the skirting board level is strongly associated...... with allergic symptoms among children. Such odor at that specific place can be seen as a proxy for some kind of hidden moisture or mold problem in the building structure, such as the foundation or wooden ground beam. In houses with odor along the skirting board, dismantling of the structure is required...

  6. 76 FR 16570 - Interest Rate Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-03-24

    ... NATIONAL CREDIT UNION ADMINISTRATION 12 CFR Part 741 RIN 3133-AD66 Interest Rate Risk AGENCY... regulations to require Federally insured credit unions to have a written policy addressing interest rate risk... Risk Management for Credit Unions with Large Positions in Fixed Rate Mortgages; 06-CU-16 Inter-Agency...

  7. Combination antiretroviral therapy and cancer risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Borges, Álvaro H

    2017-01-01

    PURPOSE OF REVIEW: To review the newest research about the effects of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) on cancer risk. RECENT FINDINGS: HIV+ persons are at increased risk of cancer. As this risk is higher for malignancies driven by viral and bacterial coinfections, classifying malignanci......ART initiation in reducing cancer risk, understand the relationship between long-term cART exposure and cancer incidence and assess whether adjuvant anti-inflammatory therapies can reduce cancer risk during treated HIV infection.......PURPOSE OF REVIEW: To review the newest research about the effects of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) on cancer risk. RECENT FINDINGS: HIV+ persons are at increased risk of cancer. As this risk is higher for malignancies driven by viral and bacterial coinfections, classifying malignancies...... into infection-related and infection-unrelated has been an emerging trend. Cohorts have detected major reductions in the incidence of Kaposi sarcoma and non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) following cART initiation among immunosuppressed HIV+ persons. However, recent randomized data indicate that cART reduces risk...

  8. Combined heart rate- and accelerometer-assessed physical activity energy expenditure and associations with glucose homeostasis markers in a population at high risk of developing diabetes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Anne-Louise Smidt; Carstensen, Bendix; Helge, Jørn Wulff

    2013-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: Regular physical activity (PA) reduces the risk of developing type 2 diabetes, and different subtypes of dysglycemia have shown different associations with PA. To better understand the associations of PA and glucose homeostasis, we examined the association of objectively measured PA...... energy expenditure (PAEE) with detailed measures of glucose homeostasis. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: In 1,531 men and women, with low to high risk of developing type 2 diabetes, we measured 7 days of PAEE using a combined accelerometry and heart rate monitor (ActiHeart). Measures and indices of glucose...... of PAEE slightly in an entire population at risk for developing type 2 diabetes may be a realistic and worthwhile goal to reach in order to achieve beneficial effect in terms of glucose metabolism....

  9. Management of interest rate risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Šabović Šerif

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Interest rate risk is one of the biggest and most dangerous risks that a bank is exposed to. When a change of interest rates occurs, the incomes of a bank based on credits and securities endure significant changes. Banks resources also endure some changes. The change of interest rates changes the value of the assets and liabilities of the bank and it's net and investment worth . The change of interest rates also affects bank's balance sheet, income sheet statement and bank's share capital.

  10. Residual Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetic Patients: The Role of Fibrate Statin Combination

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angelos Liontos

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Patients with Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM have increased cardiovascular disease (CVD risk. The use of statins significantly reduces the rate of CVD events but many T2DM patients, especially those with mixed dyslipidaemia (MD, have residual CVD risk. The use of fibrates, which improve triglyceride and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels, is beneficial for the treatment of patients with MD. Evidence from the Action to Control Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetes (ACCORD Lipid study showed a possible beneficial effect on CVD events of the addition of fenofibrate (FF to statin treatment in patients with T2DM and atherogenic MD. Furthermore, FF has been associated with slowing of the progression of early diabetic retinopathy. The combination of statin with a fibrate may improve the residual CVD risk and microvascular complications of patients with T2DM. However, trials specifically designed to assess the effects of fibrate-statin combination on cardiovascular outcomes in patients with T2DM are missing.

  11. [Evaluation of maternal parameters as risk factors for premature birth (individual and combined effects)].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voigt, M; Briese, V; Pietzner, V; Kirchengast, S; Schneider, K T M; Straube, S; Jorch, G

    2009-08-01

    We aimed to examine the individual and combined effects of nine maternal parameters (biological, medical, and social) on rates of prematurity. Our objective was to provide obstetricians with a way of screening women for likely premature deliveries. We conducted a retrospective analysis on the data of about 2.3 million pregnancies taken from the German perinatal statistics of 1995-2000. Rates of prematurity were calculated with single and multi-dimensional analyses on the basis of nine maternal parameters (age, weight, height, number of previous live births, stillbirths, miscarriages and terminations of pregnancy, smoking status, previous premature delivery). The following combinations of parameters were investigated in particular: rates of prematurity according to the number of previous stillbirths, miscarriages, and terminations; rates of prematurity according to the number of previous live births and maternal age, height and weight. We also included daily cigarette consumption and previous premature deliveries in our analyses. The rate of prematurity (premature deliveries (32-36 weeks) was 5.9%, and the rate of very early premature deliveries (prematurity (prematurity of 27.5% in women with the following combination of parameters: > or =1 stillbirth, > or =2 terminations of pregnancy and > or =2 miscarriages. A rather high risk of premature delivery (>11%) was also found for elderly (> or =40 years) grand multiparous women as well as small (premature deliveries (>10%). The risk table that we present here may assist in predicting premature delivery. Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart.New York.

  12. Nonparametric predictive inference for combined competing risks data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coolen-Maturi, Tahani; Coolen, Frank P.A.

    2014-01-01

    The nonparametric predictive inference (NPI) approach for competing risks data has recently been presented, in particular addressing the question due to which of the competing risks the next unit will fail, and also considering the effects of unobserved, re-defined, unknown or removed competing risks. In this paper, we introduce how the NPI approach can be used to deal with situations where units are not all at risk from all competing risks. This may typically occur if one combines information from multiple samples, which can, e.g. be related to further aspects of units that define the samples or groups to which the units belong or to different applications where the circumstances under which the units operate can vary. We study the effect of combining the additional information from these multiple samples, so effectively borrowing information on specific competing risks from other units, on the inferences. Such combination of information can be relevant to competing risks scenarios in a variety of application areas, including engineering and medical studies

  13. Interest Rate Risk Management using Duration Gap Methodology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dan Armeanu

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available The world for financial institutions has changed during the last 20 years, and become riskier and more competitive-driven. After the deregulation of the financial market, banks had to take on extensive risk in order to earn sufficient returns. Interest rate volatility has increased dramatically over the past twenty-five years and for that an efficient management of this interest rate risk is strong required. In the last years banks developed a variety of methods for measuring and managing interest rate risk. From these the most frequently used in real banking life and recommended by Basel Committee are based on: Reprising Model or Funding Gap Model, Maturity Gap Model, Duration Gap Model, Static and Dynamic Simulation. The purpose of this article is to give a good understanding of duration gap model used for managing interest rate risk. The article starts with a overview of interest rate risk and explain how this type of risk should be measured and managed within an asset-liability management. Then the articles takes a short look at methods for measuring interest rate risk and after that explains and demonstrates how can be used Duration Gap Model for managing interest rate risk in banks.The world for financial institutions has changed during the last 20 years, and become riskier and more competitive-driven. After the deregulation of the financial market, banks had to take on extensive risk in order to earn sufficient returns. Interest rate volatility has increased dramatically over the past twenty-five years and for that an efficient management of this interest rate risk is strong required. In the last years banks developed a variety of methods for measuring and managing interest rate risk. From these the most frequently used in real banking life and recommended by Basel Committee are based on: Reprising Model or Funding Gap Model, Maturity Gap Model, Duration Gap Model, Static and Dynamic Simulation. The purpose of this article is to give a

  14. High biologically effective dose radiation therapy using brachytherapy in combination with external beam radiotherapy for high-risk prostate cancer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Keisei Okamoto

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Purpose : To evaluate the outcomes of high-risk prostate cancer patients treated with biologically effective dose (BED ≥ 220 Gy of high-dose radiotherapy, using low-dose-rate (LDR brachytherapy in combination with external beam radiotherapy (EBRT and short-term androgen deprivation therapy (ADT. Material and methods : From 2005 to 2013, a total of 143 patients with high-risk prostate cancer were treated by radiotherapy of BED ≥ 220 Gy with a combination of LDR brachytherapy, EBRT, and androgen deprivation therapy (ADT. The high-risk patients in the present study included both high-risk and very high-risk prostate cancer. The number of high-risk features were: 60 patients with 1 high-risk factor (42%, 61 patients with 2 high-risk factors (43%, and 22 patients with 3 high-risk factors (15% including five N1 disease. External beam radiotherapy fields included prostate and seminal vesicles only or whole pelvis depending on the extension of the disease. Biochemical failure was defined by the Phoenix definition. Results : Six patients developed biochemical failure, thus providing a 5-year actual biochemical failure-free survival (BFFS rate of 95.2%. Biochemical failure was observed exclusively in cases with distant metastasis in the present study. All six patients with biochemical relapse had clinical failure due to bone metastasis, thus yielding a 5-year freedom from clinical failure (FFCF rate of 93.0%. None of the cases with N1 disease experienced biochemical failure. We observed four deaths, including one death from prostate cancer, therefore yielding a cause-specific survival (CSS rate of 97.2%, and an overall survival (OS rate of 95.5%. Conclusions : High-dose (BED ≥ 220 Gy radiotherapy by LDR in combination with EBRT has shown an excellent outcome on BFFS in high-risk and very high-risk cancer, although causal relationship between BED and BFFS remain to be explained further.

  15. 78 FR 15894 - Draft Qualitative Risk Assessment of Risk of Activity/Food Combinations for Activities (Outside...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-03-13

    .... FDA-2012-N-1258] Draft Qualitative Risk Assessment of Risk of Activity/Food Combinations for... comment period for a document entitled ``Draft Qualitative Risk Assessment of Risk of Activity/ [[Page... ``Draft Qualitative Risk Assessment of Risk of Activity/Food Combinations for Activities (Outside the Farm...

  16. 78 FR 3824 - Draft Qualitative Risk Assessment of Risk of Activity/Food Combinations for Activities (Outside...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-16

    .... FDA-2012-N-1258] Draft Qualitative Risk Assessment of Risk of Activity/Food Combinations for... entitled ``Draft Qualitative Risk Assessment of Risk of Activity/Food Combinations for Activities (Outside... defined in the regulation promulgated under section 418(n) of the FD&C Act. II. Qualitative Risk...

  17. 77 FR 51706 - Gross Combination Weight Rating (GCWR); Definition

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-08-27

    ... [Docket No. FMCSA-2012-0156] RIN 2126-AB53 Gross Combination Weight Rating (GCWR); Definition AGENCY... combination weight rating'' (GCWR) in our regulations. The definition currently prescribes how the GCWR is... comment, if submitted on behalf of an association, business, labor union, etc.). You may review a Privacy...

  18. 78 FR 64428 - Draft Qualitative Risk Assessment of Risk of Activity/Animal Food Combinations for Activities...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-10-29

    .... FDA-2013-N-1043] Draft Qualitative Risk Assessment of Risk of Activity/Animal Food Combinations for... entitled ``Draft Qualitative Risk Assessment of Risk of Activity/Animal Food Combinations for Activities...(n) of the FD&C Act. II. Qualitative Risk Assessment As explained in the draft RA, we conducted the...

  19. Direct risk standardisation: a new method for comparing casemix adjusted event rates using complex models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholl, Jon; Jacques, Richard M; Campbell, Michael J

    2013-10-29

    Comparison of outcomes between populations or centres may be confounded by any casemix differences and standardisation is carried out to avoid this. However, when the casemix adjustment models are large and complex, direct standardisation has been described as "practically impossible", and indirect standardisation may lead to unfair comparisons. We propose a new method of directly standardising for risk rather than standardising for casemix which overcomes these problems. Using a casemix model which is the same model as would be used in indirect standardisation, the risk in individuals is estimated. Risk categories are defined, and event rates in each category for each centre to be compared are calculated. A weighted sum of the risk category specific event rates is then calculated. We have illustrated this method using data on 6 million admissions to 146 hospitals in England in 2007/8 and an existing model with over 5000 casemix combinations, and a second dataset of 18,668 adult emergency admissions to 9 centres in the UK and overseas and a published model with over 20,000 casemix combinations and a continuous covariate. Substantial differences between conventional directly casemix standardised rates and rates from direct risk standardisation (DRS) were found. Results based on DRS were very similar to Standardised Mortality Ratios (SMRs) obtained from indirect standardisation, with similar standard errors. Direct risk standardisation using our proposed method is as straightforward as using conventional direct or indirect standardisation, always enables fair comparisons of performance to be made, can use continuous casemix covariates, and was found in our examples to have similar standard errors to the SMR. It should be preferred when there is a risk that conventional direct or indirect standardisation will lead to unfair comparisons.

  20. The Determinants of Country Risk Ratings

    OpenAIRE

    Jean-Claude Cosset; Jean Roy

    1991-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to replicate Euromoney's and Institutional Investor's country risk ratings on the basis of economic and political variables. The evidence reveals that country risk ratings respond to some of the variables suggested by the theory. In particular, both the level of per capita income and propensity to invest affect positively the rating of a country. In addition, high-ranking countries are less indebted than low-ranking countries. It also appears that the ability of t...

  1. TECHNICAL RISK RATING OF DOE ENVIRONMENTAL PROJECTS - 9153

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cercy, M.; Fayfich, Ronald; Schneider, Steven P.

    2008-01-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Environmental Management (DOE-EM) was established to achieve the safe and compliant disposition of legacy wastes and facilities from defense nuclear applications. The scope of work is diverse, with projects ranging from single acquisitions to collections of projects and operations that span several decades and costs from hundreds of millions to billions US$. The need to be able to manage and understand the technical risks from the project to senior management level has been recognized as an enabler to successfully completing the mission. In 2008, DOE-EM developed the Technical Risk Rating as a new method to assist in managing technical risk based on specific criteria. The Technical Risk Rating, and the criteria used to determine the rating, provides a mechanism to foster open, meaningful communication between the Federal Project Directors and DOE-EM management concerning project technical risks. Four indicators (technical maturity, risk urgency, handling difficulty and resolution path) are used to focus attention on the issues and key aspects related to the risks. Pressing risk issues are brought to the forefront, keeping DOE-EM management informed and engaged such that they fully understand risk impact. Use of the Technical Risk Rating and criteria during reviews provides the Federal Project Directors the opportunity to openly discuss the most significant risks and assists in the management of technical risks across the portfolio of DOE-EM projects. Technical Risk Ratings can be applied to all projects in government and private industry. This paper will present the methodology and criteria for Technical Risk Ratings, and provide specific examples from DOE-EM projects

  2. 77 FR 65497 - Gross Combination Weight Rating (GCWR); Definition

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-10-29

    ... [Docket No. FMCSA-2012-0156] RIN 2126-AB53 Gross Combination Weight Rating (GCWR); Definition AGENCY... combination weight rating'' (GCWR) in 49 CFR parts 383 and 390. The DFR would have taken effect on October 26... submitted on behalf of an association, business, labor union, etc.). You may review a Privacy Act notice...

  3. VaR: Exchange Rate Risk and Jump Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fen-Ying Chen

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Incorporating the Poisson jumps and exchange rate risk, this paper provides an analytical VaR to manage market risk of international portfolios over the subprime mortgage crisis. There are some properties in the model. First, different from past studies in portfolios valued only in one currency, this model considers portfolios not only with jumps but also with exchange rate risk, that is vital for investors in highly integrated global financial markets. Second, in general, the analytical VaR solution is more accurate than historical simulations in terms of backtesting and Christoffersen's independence test (1998 for small portfolios and large portfolios. In other words, the proposed model is reliable not only for a portfolio on specific stocks but also for a large portfolio. Third, the model can be regarded as the extension of that of Kupiec (1999 and Chen and Liao (2009.

  4. Combined surgical and radiological intervention for complicated cholelithiasis in high-risk patients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gibney, R.G.; Fache, J.S.; Becker, C.D.; Nichols, D.M.; Cooperberg, P.L.; Stoller, J.L.; Burhenne, H.J.

    1987-01-01

    Surgical cholecystostomy under local infiltration anesthesia was combined with radiologic removal of gallstones in 36 high-risk patients with acute calculous gallbladder disease. At cholecystostomy, the fundus of the gallbladder was sutured to the anterior abdominal wall, permitting early percutaneous stone removal through the short surgical tract. All gallstones were removed in 31 of 36 patients, for an overall success rate of 86%. The success rate was 97% for gallbladder stones, 86% for cystic duct stones, and 63% for common bile duct stones which were removed by traversing the cystic duct. There were no deaths or serious complications

  5. Combining rate-based and cap-and-trade emissions policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fischer, Carolyn

    2003-12-01

    Rate-based emissions policies (like tradable performance standards, TPS) fix average emissions intensity, while cap-and-trade (CAT) policies fix total emissions. This paper shows that unfettered trade between rate-based and cap-and-trade programs always raises combined emissions, except when product markets are related in particular ways. Gains from trade are fully passed on to consumers in the rate-based sector, resulting in more output and greater emissions allocations. We consider several policy options to offset the expansion, including a tax, an 'exchange rate' to adjust for relative permit values, output-based allocation (OBA) for the rate-based sector, and tightening the cap. A range of combinations of tighter allocations could improve situations in both sectors with trade while holding emissions constant

  6. A genetic risk score combining ten psoriasis risk loci improves disease prediction.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haoyan Chen

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Psoriasis is a chronic, immune-mediated skin disease affecting 2-3% of Caucasians. Recent genetic association studies have identified multiple psoriasis risk loci; however, most of these loci contribute only modestly to disease risk. In this study, we investigated whether a genetic risk score (GRS combining multiple loci could improve psoriasis prediction. Two approaches were used: a simple risk alleles count (cGRS and a weighted (wGRS approach. Ten psoriasis risk SNPs were genotyped in 2815 case-control samples and 858 family samples. We found that the total number of risk alleles in the cases was significantly higher than in controls, mean 13.16 (SD 1.7 versus 12.09 (SD 1.8, p = 4.577×10(-40. The wGRS captured considerably more risk than any SNP considered alone, with a psoriasis OR for high-low wGRS quartiles of 10.55 (95% CI 7.63-14.57, p = 2.010×10(-65. To compare the discriminatory ability of the GRS models, receiver operating characteristic curves were used to calculate the area under the curve (AUC. The AUC for wGRS was significantly greater than for cGRS (72.0% versus 66.5%, p = 2.13×10(-8. Additionally, the AUC for HLA-C alone (rs10484554 was equivalent to the AUC for all nine other risk loci combined (66.2% versus 63.8%, p = 0.18, highlighting the dominance of HLA-C as a risk locus. Logistic regression revealed that the wGRS was significantly associated with two subphenotypes of psoriasis, age of onset (p = 4.91×10(-6 and family history (p = 0.020. Using a liability threshold model, we estimated that the 10 risk loci account for only 11.6% of the genetic variance in psoriasis. In summary, we found that a GRS combining 10 psoriasis risk loci captured significantly more risk than any individual SNP and was associated with early onset of disease and a positive family history. Notably, only a small fraction of psoriasis heritability is captured by the common risk variants identified to date.

  7. On the spillover of exchange rate risk into default risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Božović Miloš

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to reduce the exchange-rate risk, banks in emerging markets are typically denominating their loans in foreign currencies. However, in the event of a substantial depreciation of the local currency, the payment ability of a foreign-currency borrower may be reduced significantly, exposing the lender to additional default risk. This paper analyses how the exchange-rate risk of foreign currency loans spills over into default risk. We show that in an economy where foreign currency loans are a dominant source of financing economic activity, depreciation of the local currency establishes a negative feedback mechanism that leads to higher default probabilities, reduced credit supply, and reduced growth. This finding has some important implications that may be of special interest for regulators and market participants in emerging economies.

  8. Ischemic risk stratification by means of multivariate analysis of the heart rate variability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Valencia, José F; Vallverdú, Montserrat; Caminal, Pere; Porta, Alberto; Voss, Andreas; Schroeder, Rico; Vázquez, Rafael; Bayés de Luna, Antonio

    2013-01-01

    In this work, a univariate and multivariate statistical analysis of indexes derived from heart rate variability (HRV) was conducted to stratify patients with ischemic dilated cardiomyopathy (IDC) in cardiac risk groups. Indexes conditional entropy, refined multiscale entropy (RMSE), detrended fluctuation analysis, time and frequency analysis, were applied to the RR interval series (beat-to-beat series), for single and multiscale complexity analysis of the HRV in IDC patients. Also, clinical parameters were considered. Two different end-points after a follow-up of three years were considered: (i) analysis A, with 151 survivor patients as a low risk group and 13 patients that suffered sudden cardiac death as a high risk group; (ii) analysis B, with 192 survivor patients as a low risk group and 30 patients that suffered cardiac mortality as a high risk group. A univariate and multivariate linear discriminant analysis was used as a statistical technique for classifying patients in risk groups. Sensitivity (Sen) and specificity (Spe) were calculated as diagnostic criteria in order to evaluate the performance of the indexes and their linear combinations. Sen and Spe values of 80.0% and 72.9%, respectively, were obtained during daytime by combining one clinical parameter and one index from RMSE, and during nighttime Sen = 80% and Spe = 73.4% were attained by combining one clinical factor and two indexes from RMSE. In particular, relatively long time scales were more relevant for classifying patients into risk groups during nighttime, while during daytime shorter scales performed better. The results suggest that the left atrial size, indexed to body surface and RMSE indexes are those that allow enhanced classification of ischemic patients in their respective risk groups, confirming that a single measurement is not enough to fully characterize ischemic risk patients and the clinical relevance of HRV complexity measures. (paper)

  9. Currency Risk Management under Floating Rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicu Duret

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available As for the research into this subject, we find, therefore, that one of the most important indicators that quantify the international competitiveness is the exchange rate, together with other fundamental macroeconomic variables such as the size of the potential GDP, the equilibrium real exchange rate, gives a certain insight into the functioning of the fundamental macroeconomic mechanisms and their regulation. Commercial and financial operations imply relationships between partners from different currency countries or areas that involve conversion operations, of replacement of a currency to another. Exchange rate fluctuations of one currency create currency risk, to the extent that it is used to carry out international transactions. These operations are subjected to currency risk as exchange rates change frequently from one period to another and, on the other hand, speculations in the forex market influence the exchange rate by the interventions of those who perform them.

  10. Age- and sex-specific prevalence and ten-year risk for cardiovascular disease of all 16 risk factor combinations of the metabolic syndrome - A cross-sectional study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moebus Susanne

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Based on the AHA/NHLBI-definition three out of five cardiometabolic traits must be present for the diagnosis of the metabolic syndrome (MetS, resulting in 16 different combination types. The associated cardiovascular risk may however be different and specific combination may be indicative of an increased risk, furthermore little is known to which extent these 16 combinations contribute to the overall prevalence of MetS. Here we assessed the prevalence of all 16 combination types of MetS, analyzed the impact of age and gender on prevalence rates, and estimated the 10-year risk of fatal and non-fatal myocardial infarction (MI of each MetS combination type. Methods We used data of the German Metabolic and Cardiovascular Risk Project (GEMCAS, a cross-sectional study, performed during October 2005, including 35,869 participants (aged 18-99 years, 61% women. Age-standardized prevalence and 10-year PROCAM and ESC risk scores for MI were calculated. Results In both men and women the combination with elevated waist-circumference, blood pressure and glucose (WC-BP-GL was the most frequent combination (28%, however a distinct unequal distribution was observed regarding age and sex. Any combination with GL was common in the elderly, whereas any combination with dyslipidemia and without GL was frequent in the younger. Men without MetS had an estimated mean 10-year risk of 4.7% (95%-CI: 4.5%-4.8% for MI (PROCAM, whereas the mean 10-year risk of men with MetS was clearly higher (age-standardized 7.9%; 7.8-8.0%. In women without MetS the mean 10-year risk for MI was 1.1%, in those with MetS 2.3%. The highest impact on an estimated 10-year risk for MI (PROCAM was observed with TG-HDL-GL-BP in both sexes (men 14.7%, women 3.9%. However, we could identify combinations with equal risks of non-fatal and fatal MI compared to participants without MetS. Conclusions We observed large variations in the prevalence of all 16 combination types and their

  11. 12 CFR 615.5135 - Management of interest rate risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Management of interest rate risk. 615.5135... of interest rate risk. The board of directors of each Farm Credit Bank, bank for cooperatives, and agricultural credit bank shall develop and implement an interest rate risk management program as set forth in...

  12. Credit ratings and CEO risk-taking incentives

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuang, Y.; Qin, B.

    2013-01-01

    This study examines the sophistication of rating agencies in incorporating managerial risk-taking incentives into their credit risk evaluation. We measure risk-taking incentives using two proxies: the sensitivity of managerial wealth to stock return volatility (vega) and the sensitivity of

  13. Risk, ambiguity and sovereign rating

    OpenAIRE

    Di Caro, Paolo

    2014-01-01

    Decisions of investing in sovereign assets involve both risk and ambiguity. Ambiguity arises from unknown elements characterizing the value of a generic sovereign. In presence of ambiguity, ambiguity-averse investors are prone to pay for obtaining summary information such as ratings which reduces ambiguity. Ambiguity-neutral and ambiguity-averse investors, then, make decisions on the basis of different informative sources. By presenting a simple model of sovereign rating under ambiguity, thre...

  14. Prostate Specific Antigen (PSA) as Predicting Marker for Clinical Outcome and Evaluation of Early Toxicity Rate after High-Dose Rate Brachytherapy (HDR-BT) in Combination with Additional External Beam Radiation Therapy (EBRT) for High Risk Prostate Cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ecke, Thorsten H; Huang-Tiel, Hui-Juan; Golka, Klaus; Selinski, Silvia; Geis, Berit Christine; Koswig, Stephan; Bathe, Katrin; Hallmann, Steffen; Gerullis, Holger

    2016-11-10

    High-dose-rate brachytherapy (HDR-BT) with external beam radiation therapy (EBRT) is a common treatment option for locally advanced prostate cancer (PCa). Seventy-nine male patients (median age 71 years, range 50 to 79) with high-risk PCa underwent HDR-BT following EBRT between December 2009 and January 2016 with a median follow-up of 21 months. HDR-BT was administered in two treatment sessions (one week interval) with 9 Gy per fraction using a planning system and the Ir192 treatment unit GammaMed Plus iX. EBRT was performed with CT-based 3D-conformal treatment planning with a total dose administration of 50.4 Gy with 1.8 Gy per fraction and five fractions per week. Follow-up for all patients was organized one, three, and five years after radiation therapy to evaluate early and late toxicity side effects, metastases, local recurrence, and prostate-specific antigen (PSA) value measured in ng/mL. The evaluated data included age, PSA at time of diagnosis, PSA density, BMI (body mass index), Gleason score, D'Amico risk classification for PCa, digital rectal examination (DRE), PSA value after one/three/five year(s) follow-up (FU), time of follow-up, TNM classification, prostate volume, and early toxicity rates. Early toxicity rates were 8.86% for gastrointestinal, and 6.33% for genitourinary side effects. Of all treated patients, 84.81% had no side effects. All reported complications in early toxicity were grade 1. PSA density at time of diagnosis ( p = 0.009), PSA on date of first HDR-BT ( p = 0.033), and PSA on date of first follow-up after one year ( p = 0.025) have statistical significance on a higher risk to get a local recurrence during follow-up. HDR-BT in combination with additional EBRT in the presented design for high-risk PCa results in high biochemical control rates with minimal side-effects. PSA is a negative predictive biomarker for local recurrence during follow-up. A longer follow-up is needed to assess long-term outcome and toxicities.

  15. Exchange rate risks and their impact upon the energy market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abed Al-Zabidi

    2007-04-01

    Full Text Available The expansion of international business in Slovakia brought not only the opening of markets and expansion of enterprise possibilities but also an increase in the competition and new risks. One of such risks is also the exchange rate risk. The business that realizes a financial transaction exceeding borders of the state or derives his buying or selling prices in Slovak crowns from the foreign currency, is subjected to the exchange rate risks. The exchange rate risks are caused by volatility of exchange courses of Slovak crowns related to foreign currencies. The progress of exchange rates can considerably influence a real result of a transaction negatively; therefore it is important for enterprises to identify possible risks resulting from changes in exchange rates, so they could react accordingly.The proposed article is aimed at the explanation of basic techniques of minimizing exchange rate risks with the use of financial tools available on the financial market.

  16. Interest Rate Risk Management using Duration Gap Methodology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dan Armeanu

    2008-01-01

    should be measured and managed within an asset-liability management. Then the articles takes a short look at methods for measuring interest rate risk and after that explains and demonstrates how can be used Duration Gap Model for managing interest rate risk in banks.

  17. Hazardous waste transportation risk assessment: Benefits of a combined deterministic and probabilistic Monte Carlo approach in expressing risk uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Policastro, A.J.; Lazaro, M.A.; Cowen, M.A.; Hartmann, H.M.; Dunn, W.E.; Brown, D.F.

    1995-01-01

    This paper presents a combined deterministic and probabilistic methodology for modeling hazardous waste transportation risk and expressing the uncertainty in that risk. Both the deterministic and probabilistic methodologies are aimed at providing tools useful in the evaluation of alternative management scenarios for US Department of Energy (DOE) hazardous waste treatment, storage, and disposal (TSD). The probabilistic methodology can be used to provide perspective on and quantify uncertainties in deterministic predictions. The methodology developed has been applied to 63 DOE shipments made in fiscal year 1992, which contained poison by inhalation chemicals that represent an inhalation risk to the public. Models have been applied to simulate shipment routes, truck accident rates, chemical spill probabilities, spill/release rates, dispersion, population exposure, and health consequences. The simulation presented in this paper is specific to trucks traveling from DOE sites to their commercial TSD facilities, but the methodology is more general. Health consequences are presented as the number of people with potentially life-threatening health effects. Probabilistic distributions were developed (based on actual item data) for accident release amounts, time of day and season of the accident, and meteorological conditions

  18. Real interest rates, leverage, and bank risk-taking

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dell’Ariccia, G.; Laeven, L.; Marquez, R.

    2014-01-01

    Do low interest rate environments lead to greater bank risk-taking? We show that, when banks can adjust their capital structures, reductions in real interest rates lead to greater leverage and higher risk for any downward sloping loan demand function. However, if the capital structure is fixed, the

  19. 12 CFR 563.176 - Interest-rate-risk-management procedures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 5 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Interest-rate-risk-management procedures. 563... ASSOCIATIONS-OPERATIONS Financial Management Policies § 563.176 Interest-rate-risk-management procedures... association's management of that risk. (b) The board of directors shall formerly adopt a policy for the...

  20. The Juvenile Addiction Risk Rating: Development and Initial Psychometrics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powell, Michael; Newgent, Rebecca A.

    2016-01-01

    This article describes the development and psychometrics of the Juvenile Addiction Risk Rating. The Juvenile Addiction Risk Rating is a brief screening of addiction potential based on 10 risk factors predictive of youth alcohol and drug-related problems that assists examiners in more accurate treatment planning when self-report information is…

  1. 12 CFR 652.15 - Interest rate risk management and requirements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Interest rate risk management and requirements... AGRICULTURAL MORTGAGE CORPORATION FUNDING AND FISCAL AFFAIRS Investment Management § 652.15 Interest rate risk... (direction, controls, and supervision) to the interest rate risk management program and must be knowledgeable...

  2. Risks and rewards of variable-rate debt.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jordahl, Eric A

    2012-05-01

    Hospital and health system finance leaders should position their organizations to participate in the variable-rate market. To this end, one important step is to establish the right baseline variable-rate exposure target for the organization based on its credit and risk profile. Leaders also should be thoroughly familiar with the available products and understand the circumstances (pricing, terms, and embedded risk) under which the organization would be willing to deploy them within the overall capital structure.

  3. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein, E-mail: mahmoudi@uni-hohenheim.de [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, G.C. (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Renn, Ortwin [Department of Technology and Environmental Sociology (and DIALOGIK), University of Stuttgart (Germany); Vanclay, Frank [Department of Cultural Geography, Faculty of Spatial Sciences, University of Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Hoffmann, Volker [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Karami, Ezatollah [College of Agriculture, Shiraz University, Shiraz (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2013-11-15

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary.

  4. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    2013-01-01

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary

  5. Simplifying cardiovascular risk estimation using resting heart rate.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2010-09-01

    Elevated resting heart rate (RHR) is a known, independent cardiovascular (CV) risk factor, but is not included in risk estimation systems, including Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE). We aimed to derive risk estimation systems including RHR as an extra variable and assess the value of this addition.

  6. Combined oral contraceptives : the risk of myocardial infarction and ischemic stroke

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roach, Rachel E J; Helmerhorst, Frans M.; Lijfering, Willem M.; Stijnen, Theo; Algra, Ale; Dekkers, Olaf M.

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Combined oral contraceptives (COCs) have been associated with an increased risk of arterial thrombosis, i.e. myocardial infarction or ischemic stroke. However, as these diseases are rare in young women and as many types of combined oral contraception exist, the magnitude of the risk and

  7. 78 FR 24693 - Draft Qualitative Risk Assessment of Risk of Activity/Food Combinations for Activities (Outside...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-04-26

    ... DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES Food and Drug Administration 21 CFR Part 117 [Docket No. FDA-2012-N-1258] Draft Qualitative Risk Assessment of Risk of Activity/Food Combinations for..., and requesting comment on, a document entitled ``Draft Qualitative Risk Assessment of Risk of Activity...

  8. Remarks on Interest Rate Risk Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena-Violeta DRAGOI

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Bank interest and interest rate risk management is a contemporary subject and for socio-economic environment of Romania cause serious consequences in the level of economic development. The purpose of this research is to highlight the main indicator that measures the total cost of a loan, namely the annual percentage rate (APR, because if we refer to an interest rate lower, at first glance that loan seems more advantageous, but at a closer look, taking into account the commissions charged by the bank, we see that the loan is more expensive compared to another, whose interest rate is higher.

  9. Combined methodology for estimating dose rates and health effects from exposure to radioactive pollutants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dunning, D.E. Jr.; Leggett, R.W.; Yalcintas, M.G.

    1980-12-01

    The work described in the report is basically a synthesis of two previously existing computer codes: INREM II, developed at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL); and CAIRD, developed by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The INREM II code uses contemporary dosimetric methods to estimate doses to specified reference organs due to inhalation or ingestion of a radionuclide. The CAIRD code employs actuarial life tables to account for competing risks in estimating numbers of health effects resulting from exposure of a cohort to some incremental risk. The combined computer code, referred to as RADRISK, estimates numbers of health effects in a hypothetical cohort of 100,000 persons due to continuous lifetime inhalation or ingestion of a radionuclide. Also briefly discussed in this report is a method of estimating numbers of health effects in a hypothetical cohort due to continuous lifetime exposure to external radiation. This method employs the CAIRD methodology together with dose conversion factors generated by the computer code DOSFACTER, developed at ORNL; these dose conversion factors are used to estimate dose rates to persons due to radionuclides in the air or on the ground surface. The combination of the life table and dosimetric guidelines for the release of radioactive pollutants to the atmosphere, as required by the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1977.

  10. The Combined Effect of Long Working Hours and Low Job Control on Self-Rated Health

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cho, Seong-Sik; Ju, Young-Su; Paek, Domyung; Kim, Hyunjoo; Jung-Choi, Kyunghee

    2018-01-01

    Objectives: The aim of this study was to investigate the combined effects of long working hours and low job control on self-rated health. Methods: We analyzed employees’ data obtained from the third Korean Working Conditions Survey (KWCS). Multiple survey logistic analysis and postestimation commands were employed to estimate the relative excess risk due to interaction (RERI). Results: The odds ratio (OR) for poor self-rated health was 1.24 [95% confidence interval (95% CI): 1.13 to 1.35] for long working hours, 1.04 (95% CI: 0.97 to 1.13) for low job control, and 1.47 (95% CI: 1.33 to 1.62) for both long working hours and low job control. The RERI was 0.18 (95% CI: 0.02 to 0.34). Conclusion: These results imply that low job control may increase the negative influence of long working hours on self-rated health. PMID:29200187

  11. Combination of diabetes risk factors and hepatic steatosis in Chinese: the Cardiometabolic Risk in Chinese (CRC Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jun Liang

    Full Text Available Hepatic steatosis has been related to insulin resistance and increased diabetes risk. We assessed whether combination of diabetes risk factors, evaluated by the Finnish Diabetes Risk Score, was associated with risk of hepatic steatosis in an apparently healthy Chinese population.The study samples were from a community-based health examination survey in central China. In total 1,780 men and women (18-64 y were included in the final analyses. Hepatic steatosis was diagnosed by ultrasonography. We created combination of diabetes risk factors score on basis of age, Body Mass Index, waist circumference, physical activity at least 4 h a week, daily consumption of fruits, berries or vegetables, history of antihypertensive drug treatment, history of high blood glucose. The total risk score is a simple sum of the individual weights, and values range from 0 to 20.Hepatic steatosis was present 18% in the total population. In multivariate models, the odds ratios of hepatic steatosis were 1.20 (95%CI 1.15-1.25 in men and 1.25 (95%CI 1.14-1.37 in women by each unit increase in the combination of diabetes risk factors score, after adjustment for blood pressure, liver enzymes, plasma lipids, and fasting glucose. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for hepatic steatosis was 0.78 (95%CI 0.76-0.80, 0.76 in men (95%CI 0.74-0.78 and 0.83 (95%CI 0.79-0.87 in women.Our data suggest that combination of major diabetes risk factors was significantly related to risk of hepatic steatosis in Chinese adults.

  12. High-Rate Disinfection Techniques for Combined Sewer Overflow (Proceedings Paper)

    Science.gov (United States)

    This paper presents high-rate disinfection technologies for combined sewer overflow (CSO). The high-rate disinfection technologies of interest are: chlorination/dechlorination, ultraviolet light irradiation (UV), chlorine dioxide (ClO2 ), ozone (O3), peracetic acid (CH3COOOH ), a...

  13. Metformin in combination with various insulin secretagogues in type 2 diabetes and associated risk of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mogensen, Ulrik Madvig; Andersson, Charlotte; Fosbøl, Emil Loldrup

    2015-01-01

    with pharmacologically different ISs. METHODS: Using nationwide administrative Danish registries, we followed all individuals without prior stroke or myocardial infarction who initiated metformin and an IS from 1997 through 2009. Rate ratios (RR) of all-cause mortality, cardiovascular death, and a composite...... of myocardial infarction, stroke, or cardiovascular death were compared between user groups using time-dependent multivariable Poisson regression models. The most common combination, glimepiride+metformin, was used as reference. RESULTS: A total of 56,827 patients were included, 56% male, the mean age was 61...... and cardiovascular risk. Whether glipizide is associated with increased risk compared with other ISs when used in combinations with metformin warrants further study....

  14. Risk to preimplantation mouse embryos of combinations of heavy metals and radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mueller, W.-U.; Streffer, C.

    1987-01-01

    The influence of arsenic, cadmium, lead or mercury on radiation risk to preimplantation mouse embryos in vitro was studied under various conditions. Morphological development, cell proliferation, and formation of micronuclei were used for assessment of risk after combined exposure to these metals and X-rays. No conditions were found under which arsenic altered radiation risk; the effects were merely additive. Cadmium acted similarly, though a few results indicated that morphological development might be impaired more strongly after combined exposure than expected from the addition of the single effects. Lead enhanced radiation risk with regard to micronucleus formation, but had an additive effect only in the case of morphological development and cell proliferation. Of all four metals, mercury had the greatest potential for enhancement of radiation risk, when morphological development and cell proliferation were studied. The observed combination effects exceeded even those effects which were calculated by taking into account the shape of the dose-effect curves (isobologram analysis, envelope of additivity). Mercury neither induced micro-nuclei nor enhanced their formation in combination experiments. (author)

  15. 12 CFR 615.5181 - Bank interest rate risk management program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Bank interest rate risk management program. 615... FISCAL AFFAIRS, LOAN POLICIES AND OPERATIONS, AND FUNDING OPERATIONS Risk Assessment and Management § 615.5181 Bank interest rate risk management program. (a) The board of directors of each Farm Credit Bank...

  16. Effect of benazepril and robenacoxib and their combination on glomerular filtration rate in dogs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panteri, A; Kukk, A; Desevaux, C; Seewald, W; King, J N

    2017-01-01

    Combined use of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors and nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs may induce acute kidney injury, especially when combined with diuretics. The objective of this investigation was to evaluate the effect of benazepril, robenacoxib and their combination in healthy dogs. In each of two studies (studies 1 and 2), 32 beagle dogs were randomized into one of four groups in a parallel-group design. Groups received once-daily oral treatment for 7 days with placebo, benazepril, robenacoxib or benazepril plus robenacoxib. In study 2, all dogs received additionally 2 mg/kg furosemide orally twice daily. The primary endpoint was the glomerular filtration rate (GFR) estimated from the plasma clearance of iohexol. Secondary endpoints included standard clinical monitoring and, in study 2, plasma renin activity, urine volume, specific gravity and aldosterone concentration and water intake. Administration of furosemide induced diuresis, reduced GFR and activated the renin-aldosterone-angiotensin system. Benazepril and robenacoxib, administered alone or in combination, were tolerated well, did not decrease GFR with or without co-administration of furosemide and significantly reduced urinary aldosterone concentrations. No increased risk of acute kidney injury was identified with the combination of benazepril and robenacoxib in healthy dogs. Different effects might occur in dogs with heart or renal disease. © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Veterinary Pharmacology and Therapeutics Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  17. Interest rate risk of life insurers: Evidence from accounting data

    OpenAIRE

    Möhlmann, Axel

    2017-01-01

    Life insurers are exposed to interest rate risk, and their liability side is typically more sensitive to interest rate changes than their asset side. This paper develops an accounting-based measure of interest rate sensitivity. My approach uses the coexistence of historical cost and market value accounting, which permits the observation of valuations for different discount rates. Using microdata, I show that German life insurers have a significant exposure to interest rate risk. However, ther...

  18. Combining operational models and data into a dynamic vessel risk assessment tool for coastal regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandes, R.; Braunschweig, F.; Lourenço, F.; Neves, R.

    2016-02-01

    The technological evolution in terms of computational capacity, data acquisition systems, numerical modelling and operational oceanography is supplying opportunities for designing and building holistic approaches and complex tools for newer and more efficient management (planning, prevention and response) of coastal water pollution risk events. A combined methodology to dynamically estimate time and space variable individual vessel accident risk levels and shoreline contamination risk from ships has been developed, integrating numerical metocean forecasts and oil spill simulations with vessel tracking automatic identification systems (AIS). The risk rating combines the likelihood of an oil spill occurring from a vessel navigating in a study area - the Portuguese continental shelf - with the assessed consequences to the shoreline. The spill likelihood is based on dynamic marine weather conditions and statistical information from previous accidents. The shoreline consequences reflect the virtual spilled oil amount reaching shoreline and its environmental and socio-economic vulnerabilities. The oil reaching shoreline is quantified with an oil spill fate and behaviour model running multiple virtual spills from vessels along time, or as an alternative, a correction factor based on vessel distance from coast. Shoreline risks can be computed in real time or from previously obtained data. Results show the ability of the proposed methodology to estimate the risk properly sensitive to dynamic metocean conditions and to oil transport behaviour. The integration of meteo-oceanic + oil spill models with coastal vulnerability and AIS data in the quantification of risk enhances the maritime situational awareness and the decision support model, providing a more realistic approach in the assessment of shoreline impacts. The risk assessment from historical data can help finding typical risk patterns ("hot spots") or developing sensitivity analysis to specific conditions, whereas real

  19. Interest rate risk measurement in Brazilian sovereign markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Caio Ibsen Rodrigues de Almeida

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available Fixed income emerging markets are an interesting investment alternative. Measuring market risks is mandatory in order to avoid unexpected huge losses. The most used market risk measure is the Value at Risk, based on the profit-loss probability distribution of the portfolio under consideration. Estimating this probability distribution requires the prior estimation of the probability distribution of term structures of interest rates. An interesting possibility is to estimate term structures using a decomposition of the spread function into a linear combination of Legendre polynomials. Numerical examples from the Brazilian sovereign fixed income international market illustrate the practical use of the methodology.Os mercados emergentes de renda fixa são alternativas interessantes para investimentos. Devido ao elevado nível de incerteza existente em tais mercados, a mensuração dos riscos de mercado de uma carteira de investimentos é fundamental para que se evite um nível elevado de perdas. Uma das medidas de risco de mercado mais utilizadas é o Value at Risk, baseado na distribuição de probabilidades de perdas-ganhos da carteira sob análise. A estimação desta distribuição requer, no entanto, a estimação prévia da distribuição de pro-babilidades das variações da estrutura a termo da taxa de juros. Uma possibilidade interessante para a estimação de tal distribuição é efetuar uma decomposição da função de spread da estrutura a termo em uma combinação linear de Polinômios de Legendre. Exemplos numéricos do mercado internacional de títulos soberanos brasileiros são apresentados para ilustrar o uso prático desta nova metodologia.

  20. Corporate interest rate risk management with derivatives in Australia: empirical results

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luiz Augusto Ferreira Carneiro

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Financial and insurance theories explain that large widely-held corporations manage corporate risks if doing so is costective to reduce frictional costs such as taxes, agency costs and financial distress costs. A large number of previous empirical studies, most in the U.S., have tested the hypotheses underlying corporate risk management with financial derivative instruments. In order to quantify corporate hedge demand, most previous studies have used the ratio of principal notional amount of derivatives to company size, although they recognize that company size is not an appropriate proxy for financial risk. This paper analyzes the interest-rate-risk hedge demand by Australian companies, measured through the ratio of principal notional amount of interest rate derivatives to interest-rate-riskbearing liabilities. Modern panel data methods are used, with two panel data sets from 1998 to 2003 (1102 and 465 observations, respectively. Detailed information about interest-rate-risk exposures was available after manual data collection from financial annual reports, which was only possible due to specific reporting requirements in Australian accounting standards. Regarding the analysis of the extent of hedge, our measurement of interest-rate-risk exposures generates some significant results di erent from those found in previous studies. For example, this study shows that total leverage (total debt ratio is not significantly important to interest-rate-risk hedge demand and that, instead, this demand is related to the specific risk exposure in the interest bearing part of the firms liabilities. This study finds significant relations of interest-rate-risk hedge to company size, floating-interest-rate debt ratio, annual log returns, and company industry type (utilities and non-banking financial institutions.

  1. Combining Review Text Content and Reviewer-Item Rating Matrix to Predict Review Rating

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Bingkun; Huang, Yongfeng; Li, Xing

    2016-01-01

    E-commerce develops rapidly. Learning and taking good advantage of the myriad reviews from online customers has become crucial to the success in this game, which calls for increasingly more accuracy in sentiment classification of these reviews. Therefore the finer-grained review rating prediction is preferred over the rough binary sentiment classification. There are mainly two types of method in current review rating prediction. One includes methods based on review text content which focus almost exclusively on textual content and seldom relate to those reviewers and items remarked in other relevant reviews. The other one contains methods based on collaborative filtering which extract information from previous records in the reviewer-item rating matrix, however, ignoring review textual content. Here we proposed a framework for review rating prediction which shows the effective combination of the two. Then we further proposed three specific methods under this framework. Experiments on two movie review datasets demonstrate that our review rating prediction framework has better performance than those previous methods. PMID:26880879

  2. Combining Review Text Content and Reviewer-Item Rating Matrix to Predict Review Rating.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Bingkun; Huang, Yongfeng; Li, Xing

    2016-01-01

    E-commerce develops rapidly. Learning and taking good advantage of the myriad reviews from online customers has become crucial to the success in this game, which calls for increasingly more accuracy in sentiment classification of these reviews. Therefore the finer-grained review rating prediction is preferred over the rough binary sentiment classification. There are mainly two types of method in current review rating prediction. One includes methods based on review text content which focus almost exclusively on textual content and seldom relate to those reviewers and items remarked in other relevant reviews. The other one contains methods based on collaborative filtering which extract information from previous records in the reviewer-item rating matrix, however, ignoring review textual content. Here we proposed a framework for review rating prediction which shows the effective combination of the two. Then we further proposed three specific methods under this framework. Experiments on two movie review datasets demonstrate that our review rating prediction framework has better performance than those previous methods.

  3. Discount rates in risk versus money and money versus money tradeoffs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alberini, Anna; Chiabai, Aline

    2007-04-01

    We use data from a survey of residents of five Italian cities conducted in late spring 2004 to estimate the discount rates implicit in (1) money versus future risk reductions and (2) money versus money tradeoffs. We find that the mean personal discount rate is 0.3-1.7% in (1) and 8.7% in (2). The latter is lower than the discount rates estimated in comparable situations in many recent studies, greater than market interest rates in Italy at the time, and exhibits modest variation with age and gender. The discount rate implicit in money versus risk tradeoffs is within the range of estimates from studies in the United States and Europe, and does not depend on observable individual characteristics. We use split samples to investigate whether a completely abstract risk reduction - one where the risk reduction delivery has been stripped of all specifics, so that respondents should focus on the risks without being distracted by details - results in WTP and discount figures comparable to those from an identified delivery mechanism (a medical test). We find that while WTP for an immediate risk reduction is 42-73% higher with the abstract risk reduction, the discount rate in the money versus risk tradeoffs and the variance of the error term in the WTP equation are the same across the two variants of the questionnaire.

  4. Experimental designs and risk assessment in combination toxicology: Panel discussion

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Henschler, D.; Bolt, H.M.; Jonker, D.; Pieters, M.N.; Groten, J.P.

    1996-01-01

    Advancing our knowledge on the toxicology of combined exposures to chemicals and implementation of this knowledge in guidelines for health risk assessment of such combined exposures are necessities dictated by the simple fact that humans are continuously exposed to a multitude of chemicals. A

  5. Combination of pegylated IFN-α2b with imatinib increases molecular response rates in patients with low- or intermediate-risk chronic myeloid leukemia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Simonsson, Bengt; Gedde-Dahl, Tobias; Markevärn, Berit

    2011-01-01

    Biologic and clinical observations suggest that combining imatinib with IFN-α may improve treatment outcome in chronic myeloid leukemia (CML). We randomized newly diagnosed chronic-phase CML patients with a low or intermediate Sokal risk score and in imatinib-induced complete hematologic remissio...

  6. 75 FR 13145 - SBA Lender Risk Rating System

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-03-18

    ... SMALL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION [Docket No. SBA-2010-0004] SBA Lender Risk Rating System AGENCY: Small Business Administration. ACTION: Notice; extension of comment period and correction. SUMMARY: On... of Credit Risk Management, U.S. Small Business Administration, 409 Third Street, SW., 8th Floor...

  7. Fall Risk Assessment Through Automatic Combination of Clinical Fall Risk Factors and Body-Worn Sensor Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greene, Barry R; Redmond, Stephen J; Caulfield, Brian

    2017-05-01

    Falls are the leading global cause of accidental death and disability in older adults and are the most common cause of injury and hospitalization. Accurate, early identification of patients at risk of falling, could lead to timely intervention and a reduction in the incidence of fall-related injury and associated costs. We report a statistical method for fall risk assessment using standard clinical fall risk factors (N = 748). We also report a means of improving this method by automatically combining it, with a fall risk assessment algorithm based on inertial sensor data and the timed-up-and-go test. Furthermore, we provide validation data on the sensor-based fall risk assessment method using a statistically independent dataset. Results obtained using cross-validation on a sample of 292 community dwelling older adults suggest that a combined clinical and sensor-based approach yields a classification accuracy of 76.0%, compared to either 73.6% for sensor-based assessment alone, or 68.8% for clinical risk factors alone. Increasing the cohort size by adding an additional 130 subjects from a separate recruitment wave (N = 422), and applying the same model building and validation method, resulted in a decrease in classification performance (68.5% for combined classifier, 66.8% for sensor data alone, and 58.5% for clinical data alone). This suggests that heterogeneity between cohorts may be a major challenge when attempting to develop fall risk assessment algorithms which generalize well. Independent validation of the sensor-based fall risk assessment algorithm on an independent cohort of 22 community dwelling older adults yielded a classification accuracy of 72.7%. Results suggest that the present method compares well to previously reported sensor-based fall risk assessment methods in assessing falls risk. Implementation of objective fall risk assessment methods on a large scale has the potential to improve quality of care and lead to a reduction in associated hospital

  8. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify

  9. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    2013-01-01

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify

  10. Food combination and Alzheimer disease risk: a protective diet.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, Yian; Nieves, Jeri W; Stern, Yaakov; Luchsinger, Jose A; Scarmeas, Nikolaos

    2010-06-01

    To assess the association between food combination and Alzheimer disease (AD) risk. Because foods are not consumed in isolation, dietary pattern (DP) analysis of food combination, taking into account the interactions among food components, may offer methodological advantages. Prospective cohort study. Northern Manhattan, New York, New York. Two thousand one hundred forty-eight community-based elderly subjects (aged > or = 65 years) without dementia in New York provided dietary information and were prospectively evaluated with the same standardized neurological and neuropsychological measures approximately every 1.5 years. Using reduced rank regression, we calculated DPs based on their ability to explain variation in 7 potentially AD-related nutrients: saturated fatty acids, monounsaturated fatty acids, omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids, omega-6 polyunsaturated fatty acids, vitamin E, vitamin B(12), and folate. The associations of reduced rank regression-derived DPs with AD risk were then examined using a Cox proportional hazards model. Main Outcome Measure Incident AD risk. Two hundred fifty-three subjects developed AD during a follow-up of 3.9 years. We identified a DP strongly associated with lower AD risk: compared with subjects in the lowest tertile of adherence to this pattern, the AD hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) for subjects in the highest DP tertile was 0.62 (0.43-0.89) after multivariable adjustment (P for trend = .01). This DP was characterized by higher intakes of salad dressing, nuts, fish, tomatoes, poultry, cruciferous vegetables, fruits, and dark and green leafy vegetables and a lower intake of high-fat dairy products, red meat, organ meat, and butter. Simultaneous consideration of previous knowledge regarding potentially AD-related nutrients and multiple food groups can aid in identifying food combinations that are associated with AD risk.

  11. Combining Review Text Content and Reviewer-Item Rating Matrix to Predict Review Rating

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bingkun Wang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available E-commerce develops rapidly. Learning and taking good advantage of the myriad reviews from online customers has become crucial to the success in this game, which calls for increasingly more accuracy in sentiment classification of these reviews. Therefore the finer-grained review rating prediction is preferred over the rough binary sentiment classification. There are mainly two types of method in current review rating prediction. One includes methods based on review text content which focus almost exclusively on textual content and seldom relate to those reviewers and items remarked in other relevant reviews. The other one contains methods based on collaborative filtering which extract information from previous records in the reviewer-item rating matrix, however, ignoring review textual content. Here we proposed a framework for review rating prediction which shows the effective combination of the two. Then we further proposed three specific methods under this framework. Experiments on two movie review datasets demonstrate that our review rating prediction framework has better performance than those previous methods.

  12. Modified Mitchell osteotomy alone does not have higher rate of residual metatarsalgia than combined first and lesser metatarsal osteotomy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shu-Jung Chen

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Transfer metatarsalgia (TM is a common forefoot disorder secondary to hallux valgus (HV. Some authors suggest that a combined lesser metatarsal osteotomy while undergoing HV surgery improves metatarsalgia, whereas others concluded that isolated HV corrective osteotomy can improve symptomatic metatarsalgia. The main purpose of this retrospective study was to compare clinical outcomes in patients with and without combined lesser metatarsal osteotomy while receiving HV correction surgery. We retrospectively reviewed the patients who underwent osteotomy for HV correction between January 2000 and December 2010. All patients underwent HV correction with modified Mitchell osteotomy. Clinical evaluations including the American Orthopaedic Foot and Ankle Society score and residual metatarsalgia were assessed, and radiographic measurements were carried out. Sixty-five patients (83 feet meeting the selection criteria were enrolled. Thirty feet receiving a combined lesser metatarsal osteotomy were classified as the combined surgery (CS group, and the others were classified as the control (CN group (53 feet. The overall rate of persistent symptomatic metatarsalgia was 19.28% after operative treatment. There were six feet with residual metatarsalgia in the CS group, and 10 feet in the CN group. There was no significant difference in the rate of persistent symptoms between the two groups (p = 0.9. According to this result, modified Mitchell osteotomy alone did not have a higher rate of residual metatarsalgia than CS. We also found that the average recovery rate of TM was about 80.7% and those patients whose preoperative HV angle was > 30° had the higher risk of residual metatarsalgia after surgery.

  13. Semiparametric accelerated failure time cure rate mixture models with competing risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Sangbum; Zhu, Liang; Huang, Xuelin

    2018-01-15

    Modern medical treatments have substantially improved survival rates for many chronic diseases and have generated considerable interest in developing cure fraction models for survival data with a non-ignorable cured proportion. Statistical analysis of such data may be further complicated by competing risks that involve multiple types of endpoints. Regression analysis of competing risks is typically undertaken via a proportional hazards model adapted on cause-specific hazard or subdistribution hazard. In this article, we propose an alternative approach that treats competing events as distinct outcomes in a mixture. We consider semiparametric accelerated failure time models for the cause-conditional survival function that are combined through a multinomial logistic model within the cure-mixture modeling framework. The cure-mixture approach to competing risks provides a means to determine the overall effect of a treatment and insights into how this treatment modifies the components of the mixture in the presence of a cure fraction. The regression and nonparametric parameters are estimated by a nonparametric kernel-based maximum likelihood estimation method. Variance estimation is achieved through resampling methods for the kernel-smoothed likelihood function. Simulation studies show that the procedures work well in practical settings. Application to a sarcoma study demonstrates the use of the proposed method for competing risk data with a cure fraction. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  14. American Brachytherapy Society Task Group Report: Combination of brachytherapy and external beam radiation for high-risk prostate cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spratt, Daniel E; Soni, Payal D; McLaughlin, Patrick W; Merrick, Gregory S; Stock, Richard G; Blasko, John C; Zelefsky, Michael J

    To review outcomes for high-risk prostate cancer treated with combined modality radiation therapy (CMRT) utilizing external beam radiation therapy (EBRT) with a brachytherapy boost. The available literature for high-risk prostate cancer treated with combined modality radiation therapy was reviewed and summarized. At this time, the literature suggests that the majority of high-risk cancers are curable with multimodal treatment. Several large retrospective studies and three prospective randomized trials comparing CMRT to dose-escalated EBRT have demonstrated superior biochemical control with CMRT. Longer followup of the randomized trials will be required to determine if this will translate to a benefit in metastasis-free survival, disease-specific survival, and overall survival. Although greater toxicity has been associated with CMRT compared to EBRT, recent studies suggest that technological advances that allow better definition and sparing of critical adjacent structures as well as increasing experience with brachytherapy have improved implant quality and the toxicity profile of brachytherapy. The role of androgen deprivation therapy is well established in the external beam literature for high-risk disease, but there is controversy regarding the applicability of these data in the setting of dose escalation. At this time, there is not sufficient evidence for the omission of androgen deprivation therapy with dose escalation in this population. Comparisons with surgery remain limited by differences in patient selection, but the evidence would suggest better disease control with CMRT compared to surgery alone. Due to a series of technological advances, modern combination series have demonstrated unparalleled rates of disease control in the high-risk population. Given the evidence from recent randomized trials, combination therapy may become the standard of care for high-risk cancers. Copyright © 2016 American Brachytherapy Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All

  15. 12 CFR 615.5180 - Interest rate risk management by banks-general.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Interest rate risk management by banks-general... FISCAL AFFAIRS, LOAN POLICIES AND OPERATIONS, AND FUNDING OPERATIONS Risk Assessment and Management § 615.5180 Interest rate risk management by banks—general. The board of directors of each Farm Credit Bank...

  16. Heart rate variability based on risk stratification for type 2 diabetes mellitus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva-E-Oliveira, Julia; Amélio, Pâmela Marina; Abranches, Isabela Lopes Laguardia; Damasceno, Dênis Derly; Furtado, Fabianne

    2017-01-01

    To evaluate heart rate variability among adults with different risk levels for type 2 diabetes mellitus. The risk for type 2 diabetes mellitus was assessed in 130 participants (89 females) based on the questionnaire Finnish Diabetes Risk Score and was classified as low risk (n=26), slightly elevated risk (n=41), moderate risk (n=27) and high risk (n=32). To measure heart rate variability, a heart-rate monitor Polar S810i® was employed to obtain RR series for each individual, at rest, for 5 minutes, followed by analysis of linear and nonlinear indexes. The groups at higher risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus had significantly lower linear and nonlinear heart rate variability indexes. The individuals at high risk for type 2 diabetes mellitus have lower heart rate variability. Avaliar a variabilidade da frequência cardíaca em adultos com diferentes níveis de risco para diabetes mellitus tipo 2. O grau de risco para diabetes mellitus tipo 2 de 130 participantes (41 homens) foi avaliado pelo questionário Finnish Diabetes Risk Score. Os participantes foram classificados em baixo risco (n=26), risco levemente elevado (n=41), risco moderado (n=27) e alto risco (n=32). Para medir a variabilidade da frequência cardíaca, utilizou-se o frequencímetro Polar S810i® para obter séries de intervalo RR para cada indivíduo, em repouso, durante 5 minutos; posteriormente, realizou-se análise por meio de índices lineares e não-lineares. O grupo com maior risco para diabetes mellitus tipo 2 teve uma diminuição significante nos índices lineares e não-lineares da variabilidade da frequência cardíaca. Os resultados apontam que indivíduos com risco alto para diabetes mellitus tipo 2 tem menor variabilidade da frequência cardíaca. To evaluate heart rate variability among adults with different risk levels for type 2 diabetes mellitus. The risk for type 2 diabetes mellitus was assessed in 130 participants (89 females) based on the questionnaire Finnish Diabetes Risk Score

  17. Combined effects of smoking, coffee, and NSAIDs on Parkinson's disease risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powers, Karen M; Kay, Denise M; Factor, Stewart A; Zabetian, Cyrus P; Higgins, Donald S; Samii, Ali; Nutt, John G; Griffith, Alida; Leis, Berta; Roberts, John W; Martinez, Erica D; Montimurro, Jennifer S; Checkoway, Harvey; Payami, Haydeh

    2008-01-01

    Inverse associations of Parkinson's disease (PD) with cigarette smoking, coffee drinking, and nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID) use have been reported individually, but their joint effects have not been examined. To quantify associations with PD for the individual, two-way and three-way combinations of these factors, a case-control association study with 1,186 PD patients and 928 controls was conducted. The study setting was the NeuroGenetics Research Consortium. Subjects completed a structured questionnaire regarding smoking, coffee, and NSAID consumption. Odds ratios were calculated using unconditional logistic regression. Smoking, coffee, and over the counter NSAID use as individual factors exhibited significantly reduced risks of 20% to 30%. The two-way and three-way combinations were associated with risk reduction of 37% to 49%, and 62%, respectively. Smoking and coffee exhibited significant inverse risk trends with increasing cumulative exposures, suggesting dose-response relations. With respect to the combination of all three exposures, persons who were at the highest exposure strata for smoking and coffee and used NSAIDs had an estimated 87% reduction in risk (OR = 0.13, 95% CI = 0.06-0.29). Whether this finding reflects true biologic protection needs to be investigated. 2007 Movement Disorder Society

  18. The impact of item order on ratings of cancer risk perception.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Kathryn L; Shelby, Rebecca A; Schwartz, Marc D; Ackerman, Josh; LaSalle, V Holland; Gelmann, Edward P; McGuire, Colleen

    2002-07-01

    Although perceived risk is central to most theories of health behavior, there is little consensus on its measurement with regard to item wording, response set, or the number of items to include. In a methodological assessment of perceived risk, we assessed the impact of changing the order of three commonly used perceived risk items: quantitative personal risk, quantitative population risk, and comparative risk. Participants were 432 men and women enrolled in an ancillary study of the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial. Three groups of consecutively enrolled participants responded to the three items in one of three question orders. Results indicated that item order was related to the perceived risk ratings of both ovarian (P Perceptions of risk were significantly lower when the comparative rating was made first. The findings suggest that compelling participants to consider their own risk relative to the risk of others results in lower ratings of perceived risk. Although the use of multiple items may provide more information than when only a single method is used, different conclusions may be reached depending on the context in which an item is assessed.

  19. LOW POWER BRACHYTHERAPY IN COMBINED TREATMENT IN PATIENTS WITH INTERMEDIATE RISK OF LOCALIZED PROST ATE CANCER

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. A. Biryukov

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. Estimation of the effectiveness of low power brachytherapy sources I-125 in the combined treatment in group of patients of intermediate risk of localized prostate cancer.Material and methods. The study included 126 patients with prostate cancer of intermediate risk. 104 patients (83,9% were conducted low power brachytherapy I‑125 in combination with hormone therapy by analogues of LHWG. 22 patients (16.1% received external beam irradiation in combination with brachytherapy I‑125 and hormonal treatment. Relapse-free survival of patients was evaluated in accordance with the criteria Phoenix (Nadir PSA + ng/ml. Evaluation of side effects of radiation treatment were carried out according to the RTOG criteria.Results. PSA relapse-free survival in the group of brachytherapy and hormone treatment at the time of observation 5 years amounted to 97.1%. In the group of combined radiation therapy with brachytherapy, and hormonal treatment PSA relapse-free survival rate was 95.5%.In both groups, relapse-free survival was noted in 96,8% of cases. Tumor-specific and overall survival in bothgroups was 100%. The major complications of treatment in both groups were radiation urethritis 1 to 2 degrees in 9.5% of cases (12 patients, urethral stricture in 5 patients (3.9% of cases, acute urinary retention in 1 patient (0.8% of cases and late radiation rectitis of 2 degree in 1.58% of cases (2 patients.Conclusions. It is possible to draw tentative conclusions about the high rate of survival without progression in both treatment groups on the background of the relatively low frequency of adverse reactions. It is necessary further follow-up for patients with estimating of survival for a longer period.

  20. Courting disaster: How diversification rate affects fitness under risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ratcliff, William C; Hawthorne, Peter; Libby, Eric

    2015-01-01

    Life is full of risk. To deal with this uncertainty, many organisms have evolved bet-hedging strategies that spread risk through phenotypic diversification. These rates of diversification can vary by orders of magnitude in different species. Here we examine how key characteristics of risk and organismal ecology affect the fitness consequences of variation in diversification rate. We find that rapid diversification is strongly favored when the risk faced has a wide spatial extent, with a single disaster affecting a large fraction of the population. This advantage is especially great in small populations subject to frequent disaster. In contrast, when risk is correlated through time, slow diversification is favored because it allows adaptive tracking of disasters that tend to occur in series. Naturally evolved diversification mechanisms in diverse organisms facing a broad array of environmental risks largely support these results. The theory presented in this article provides a testable ecological hypothesis to explain the prevalence of slow stochastic switching among microbes and rapid, within-clutch diversification strategies among plants and animals. PMID:25410817

  1. Information Acquisition and Excessive Risk: Impact of Policy Rate and Market Volatility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Volha Audzei

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Excessive risk-taking of financial agents drew a lot of attention in the aftermath of the financial crisis. Low interest rates and subdued market volatility during the Great Moderation are sometimes blamed for stimulating risk-taking and leading to the recent financial crisis. In recent years, with many central banks around the world conducting the policy of low interest rates and mitigating market risks, it has been debatable whether this policy contributes to the building up of another credit boom. This paper addresses this issue by focusing on information acquisition by the financial agents. We build a theoretical model which captures excessive risk taking in response to changes in policy rate and market volatility. This excessive risk takes the form of an increased risk appetite of the agents, but also of decreased incentives to acquire information about risky assets. As a result, with market risk being reduced, agents tend to acquire more risk in their portfolios then they would with the higher market risk. The same forces increase portfolio risk when the safe interest rate is falling. The robustness of the results is considered with different learning rules.

  2. Risk of solid cancer in low dose-rate radiation epidemiological studies and the dose-rate effectiveness factor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shore, Roy; Walsh, Linda; Azizova, Tamara; Rühm, Werner

    2017-10-01

    Estimated radiation risks used for radiation protection purposes have been based primarily on the Life Span Study (LSS) of atomic bomb survivors who received brief exposures at high dose rates, many with high doses. Information is needed regarding radiation risks from low dose-rate (LDR) exposures to low linear-energy-transfer (low-LET) radiation. We conducted a meta-analysis of LDR epidemiologic studies that provide dose-response estimates of total solid cancer risk in adulthood in comparison to corresponding LSS risks, in order to estimate a dose rate effectiveness factor (DREF). We identified 22 LDR studies with dose-response risk estimates for solid cancer after minimizing information overlap. For each study, a parallel risk estimate was derived from the LSS risk model using matching values for sex, mean ages at first exposure and attained age, targeted cancer types, and accounting for type of dosimetric assessment. For each LDR study, a ratio of the excess relative risk per Gy (ERR Gy -1 ) to the matching LSS ERR risk estimate (LDR/LSS) was calculated, and a meta-analysis of the risk ratios was conducted. The reciprocal of the resultant risk ratio provided an estimate of the DREF. The meta-analysis showed a LDR/LSS risk ratio of 0.36 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.14, 0.57) for the 19 studies of solid cancer mortality and 0.33 (95% CI 0.13, 0.54) when three cohorts with only incidence data also were added, implying a DREF with values around 3, but statistically compatible with 2. However, the analyses were highly dominated by the Mayak worker study. When the Mayak study was excluded the LDR/LSS risk ratios increased: 1.12 (95% CI 0.40, 1.84) for mortality and 0.54 (95% CI 0.09, 0.99) for mortality + incidence, implying a lower DREF in the range of 1-2. Meta-analyses that included only cohorts in which the mean dose was LDR data provide direct evidence regarding risk from exposures at low dose rates as an important complement to the LSS risk estimates used

  3. Combined use of aortic dissection detection risk score and D-dimer in the diagnostic workup of suspected acute aortic dissection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nazerian, Peiman; Morello, Fulvio; Vanni, Simone; Bono, Alessia; Castelli, Matteo; Forno, Daniela; Gigli, Chiara; Soardo, Flavia; Carbone, Federica; Lupia, Enrico; Grifoni, Stefano

    2014-07-15

    Acute aortic dissection (AD) represents a diagnostic conundrum. Validated algorithms are particularly needed to identify patients where AD could be ruled out without aortic imaging. We evaluated the diagnostic accuracy of a strategy combining the aortic dissection detection (ADD) risk score with D-dimer, a sensitive biomarker of AD. Patients from two clinical centers with suspected AD were prospectively enrolled in a registry, from January 2008 to March 2013. The ADD risk score was calculated by retrospective blinded chart review. For D-dimer, a cutoff of 500 ng/ml was applied. AD was diagnosed in 233 of 1035 (22.5%) patients. The ADD risk score was 0 in 322 (31.1%), 1 in 508 (49.1%) and >1 in 205 (19.8%) patients. The sensitivity and the failure rate of D-dimer were 100% and 0% in patients with ADD score 0, versus 97.5% (95% CI 91.4-99.6%) and 4.2% (95% CI 0.7-12.5%) in patients with ADD risk score >1. In patients with ADD risk score ≤ 1, the sensitivity and the failure rate of D-dimer were 98.7% (95% CI 95.3-99.8%) and 0.8% (95% CI 0.1-2.6%). The diagnostic efficiency of D-dimer in patients with ADD risk score 0 and ≤ 1 was 8.9% (95% CI 7.2-10.7%) and 23.6% (95% CI 21.1-26.2%) respectively. In a large cohort of patients with suspected AD, the presence of ADD risk score 0 or ≤ 1 combined with a negative D-dimer accurately and efficiently ruled out AD. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Hedging endowment assurance products under interest rate and mortality risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chen, A.; Mahayni, A.

    2007-01-01

    This paper analyzes how model misspecification associated with both interest rate and mortality risk influences hedging decisions of insurance companies. For this purpose, diverse risk management strategies which are riskminimizing when model risk is ignored come into consideration. The

  5. Recovering Risk-Neutral Densities from Brazilian Interest Rate Options

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Renato Haas Ornelas

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Building Risk-Neutral Density (RND from options data is one useful way for extracting market expectations about a financial variable. For a sample of IDI (Brazilian Interbank Deposit Rate Index options from 1998 to 2009, this paper estimates the option-implied Risk-Neutral Densities for the Brazilian short rate using three methods: Shimko, Mixture of Two Log-Normals and Generalized Beta of Second Kind. Our in-sample goodness-of-fit evaluation shows that the Mixture of Log-Normals method provides better fitting to option’s data than the other two methods. The shape of log-normal distributions seems to fit well to the mean-reversal dynamics of Brazilian interest rates. We have also calculated the RND implied Skewness, showing how it could have provided market early-warning signals of the monetary policy outcomes in 2002 and 2003. Overall, Risk-Neutral Densities implied on IDI options showed to be a useful tool for extracting market expectations about future outcomes of the monetary policy.

  6. Improvement of Risk Prediction After Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement by Combining Frailty With Conventional Risk Scores.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schoenenberger, Andreas W; Moser, André; Bertschi, Dominic; Wenaweser, Peter; Windecker, Stephan; Carrel, Thierry; Stuck, Andreas E; Stortecky, Stefan

    2018-02-26

    This study sought to evaluate whether frailty improves mortality prediction in combination with the conventional scores. European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) or Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) score have not been evaluated in combined models with frailty for mortality prediction after transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR). This prospective cohort comprised 330 consecutive TAVR patients ≥70 years of age. Conventional scores and a frailty index (based on assessment of cognition, mobility, nutrition, and activities of daily living) were evaluated to predict 1-year all-cause mortality using Cox proportional hazards regression (providing hazard ratios [HRs] with confidence intervals [CIs]) and measures of test performance (providing likelihood ratio [LR] chi-square test statistic and C-statistic [CS]). All risk scores were predictive of the outcome (EuroSCORE, HR: 1.90 [95% CI: 1.45 to 2.48], LR chi-square test statistic 19.29, C-statistic 0.67; STS score, HR: 1.51 [95% CI: 1.21 to 1.88], LR chi-square test statistic 11.05, C-statistic 0.64; frailty index, HR: 3.29 [95% CI: 1.98 to 5.47], LR chi-square test statistic 22.28, C-statistic 0.66). A combination of the frailty index with either EuroSCORE (LR chi-square test statistic 38.27, C-statistic 0.72) or STS score (LR chi-square test statistic 28.71, C-statistic 0.68) improved mortality prediction. The frailty index accounted for 58.2% and 77.6% of the predictive information in the combined model with EuroSCORE and STS score, respectively. Net reclassification improvement and integrated discrimination improvement confirmed that the added frailty index improved risk prediction. This is the first study showing that the assessment of frailty significantly enhances prediction of 1-year mortality after TAVR in combined risk models with conventional risk scores and relevantly contributes to this improvement. Copyright © 2018 American College of Cardiology Foundation

  7. Risk Management of Interest Rate Derivative Portfolios: A Stochastic Control Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Konstantinos Kiriakopoulos

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we formulate the Risk Management Control problem in the interest rate area as a constrained stochastic portfolio optimization problem. The utility that we use can be any continuous function and based on the viscosity theory, the unique solution of the problem is guaranteed. The numerical approximation scheme is presented and applied using a single factor interest rate model. It is shown how the whole methodology works in practice, with the implementation of the algorithm for a specific interest rate portfolio. The recent financial crisis showed that risk management of derivatives portfolios especially in the interest rate market is crucial for the stability of the financial system. Modern Value at Risk (VAR and Conditional Value at Risk (CVAR techniques, although very useful and easy to understand, fail to grasp the need for on-line controlling and monitoring of derivatives portfolio. The portfolios should be designed in a way that risk and return be quantified and controlled in every possible state of the world. We hope that this methodology contributes towards this direction.

  8. Failure mode effect analysis and fault tree analysis as a combined methodology in risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wessiani, N. A.; Yoshio, F.

    2018-04-01

    There have been many studies reported the implementation of Failure Mode Effect Analysis (FMEA) and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) as a method in risk management. However, most of the studies usually only choose one of these two methods in their risk management methodology. On the other side, combining these two methods will reduce the drawbacks of each methods when implemented separately. This paper aims to combine the methodology of FMEA and FTA in assessing risk. A case study in the metal company will illustrate how this methodology can be implemented. In the case study, this combined methodology will assess the internal risks that occur in the production process. Further, those internal risks should be mitigated based on their level of risks.

  9. Bank Credit Risk Management and Rating Migration Analysis on the Business Cycle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dimitris Gavalas

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Credit risk measurement remains a critical field of top priority in banking finance, directly implicated in the recent global financial crisis. This paper examines the dynamic linkages between credit risk migration due to rating shifts and prevailing macroeconomic conditions, reflected in alternative business cycle states. An innovative empirical methodology applies to bank internal rating data, under different economic scenarios and investigates the implications of credit risk quality shifts for risk rating transition matrices. The empirical findings are useful and critical for banks to align to Basel guidelines in relation to core capital requirements and risk-weighted assets in the underlying loan portfolio.

  10. Courting disaster: How diversification rate affects fitness under risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ratcliff, William C; Hawthorne, Peter; Libby, Eric

    2015-01-01

    Life is full of risk. To deal with this uncertainty, many organisms have evolved bet-hedging strategies that spread risk through phenotypic diversification. These rates of diversification can vary by orders of magnitude in different species. Here we examine how key characteristics of risk and organismal ecology affect the fitness consequences of variation in diversification rate. We find that rapid diversification is strongly favored when the risk faced has a wide spatial extent, with a single disaster affecting a large fraction of the population. This advantage is especially great in small populations subject to frequent disaster. In contrast, when risk is correlated through time, slow diversification is favored because it allows adaptive tracking of disasters that tend to occur in series. Naturally evolved diversification mechanisms in diverse organisms facing a broad array of environmental risks largely support these results. The theory presented in this article provides a testable ecological hypothesis to explain the prevalence of slow stochastic switching among microbes and rapid, within-clutch diversification strategies among plants and animals. © 2014 The Author(s). Evolution published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of The Society for the Study of Evolution.

  11. Risk of Interest Rates at the Level of Commercial Banks in Romania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sbârcea Ioana Raluca

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The banking system in Romania is a banking system under development, subject to fluctuations that exist on the market more than on more developed banking systems, fluctuations that can generate losses for banks if they are not properly managed. The losses that may be generated by these fluctuations, known as market risk, refer to the significant fluctuations in three indicators, namely the interest rate, the exchange rate and the asset price. In this article, I will analyse the interest rate risk from a conceptual point of view and the indicators that mitigate this risk. The analysis also contains a study of this risk among commercial banks in the system to highlight the level of risk and possible effects of its manifestation. I calculated and analysed the interest rate risk indicators, individually for the first three banks in the system, but also to comparatively, in order to highlight the existing differences.

  12. Intertemporal Risk-Return Trade-off in Foreign Exchange Rates

    OpenAIRE

    Christiansen, Charlotte

    2010-01-01

    We investigate the intertemporal risk-return trade-off of foreign ex-change (FX) rates for ten currencies quoted against the USD. For each currency,we use three risk measures simultaneously that pertain to that currency; its re-alized volatility, its realized skewness, and its value-at-risk. We apply monthlyFX excess returns and monthly FX risk measures calculated from daily ob-servations. We find that there is a positive and signi…cant contemporaneousrisk-return trade-off for most currencies...

  13. [C-section rate in low-risk women: a useful indicator to compare hospitals attending deliveries with different risks].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Librero, Julián; Peiró, Salvador; Belda, Ana; Calabuig, Julia

    2014-01-01

    the C-section rate has been criticized as a performance indicator for not considering that different hospitals manage deliveries with diverse risks. In this work we explore the characteristics of a new indicator restricted to low C-section risk deliveries. retrospective cohort of all births (n=214,611) in all public hospitals during 2005-2010 in the Valencia Region, Spain (source: minimum basic dataset). A low-risk subpopulation consisting of women under-35, no history of c-section, between 37 and 41 gestational weeks, and with a single fetus, with cephalic presentation and normal weight (2500-3999 g) was constructed. We analyzed variability in the new indicator, its correlation with the crude indicator and, using multilevel logistic regression models, the presence of residual risks. a total of 117 589 births (58.4% of the whole deliveries) were identified as low C-section risk. The c-section rate in these women was 11.9% (24.4% for all deliveries) ranging between hospitals from 7.0% to 28.9%. The c-section rate in low-risk and total deliveries correlated strongly (r=0.88). The remaining risks in the population of low risk did not alter the hospital effect on the c-section rate. the percentage of C-section in low risk women include a high volume of deliveries, correlated with the crude indicator and residual risks are not differentially influenced by hospitals, being a useful indicator for monitoring the quality of obstetric care in the National Health System.

  14. Estimating Risk and Return Combinations for New Derivatives Funds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandre Bona

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available Active funds are typically managed by placing bets against a well defined passive bench-mark. In this context, when examining the launching of a new actively managed fund with a target expected excess rate of return relative to the benchmark equal to µ, asset managers face the problem of estimating the risk σ of excess rates of return. This estimate is critical to examine whether the product is commercially feasible and to define risk limits for the manager, if the product is launched. This paper proceeds to examine the solution to this problem assuming an especial form of the binomial model, in the context of the market timing structure advanced by Merton (1981. The paper shows that two variables are relevant for the solution of the proposed problem. The first, and the most relevant, is the skill level of the manager. A ore skilled manager is able to operate a less risky product with the same target excess rate of return µ. The second relevant variable is the trade-off between risk and return determined by existing investment opportunities in the market. The smaller the increases in risk exposure required to obtain an increase in excess returns, the less risky the product will be After solving the problem under specific assumptions, the paper proceeds to test empirically their validity using a representative sample of hedge funds in the Brazilian market. The empirical results strongly support the validity of the required assumptions.

  15. The Combined Effect of Long Working Hours and Low Job Control on Self-Rated Health: An Interaction Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cho, Seong-Sik; Ju, Young-Su; Paek, Domyung; Kim, Hyunjoo; Jung-Choi, Kyunghee

    2018-05-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate the combined effects of long working hours and low job control on self-rated health. We analyzed employees' data obtained from the third Korean Working Conditions Survey (KWCS). Multiple survey logistic analysis and postestimation commands were employed to estimate the relative excess risk due to interaction (RERI). The odds ratio (OR) for poor self-rated health was 1.24 [95% confidence interval (95% CI): 1.13 to 1.35] for long working hours, 1.04 (95% CI: 0.97 to 1.13) for low job control, and 1.47 (95% CI: 1.33 to 1.62) for both long working hours and low job control. The RERI was 0.18 (95% CI: 0.02 to 0.34). These results imply that low job control may increase the negative influence of long working hours on self-rated health.

  16. College Students' Perceived Disease Risk versus Actual Prevalence Rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Matthew Lee; Dickerson, Justin B.; Sosa, Erica T.; McKyer, E. Lisako J.; Ory, Marcia G.

    2012-01-01

    Objective: To compare college students' perceived disease risk with disease prevalence rates. Methods: Data were analyzed from 625 college students collected with an Internet-based survey. Paired t-tests were used to separately compare participants' perceived 10-year and lifetime disease risk for 4 diseases: heart disease, cancer, diabetes, and…

  17. Risk of drug interaction: combination of antidepressants and other drugs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miyasaka Lincoln Sakiara

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To assess the frequency of combination of antidepressants with other drugs and risk of drug interactions in the setting public hospital units in Brazil. METHODS: Prescriptions of all patients admitted to a public hospital from November 1996 to February 1997 were surveyed from the hospital's data processing center in São Paulo, Brazil. A manual search of case notes of all patients admitted to the psychiatric unit from January 1993 to December 1995 and all patients registered in the affective disorders outpatient clinic in December 1996 was carried out. Patients taking any antidepressant were identified and concomitant use of drugs was checked. By means of a software program (Micromedex® drug interactions were identified. RESULTS: Out of 6,844 patients admitted to the hospital, 63 (0.9% used antidepressants and 16 (25.3% were at risk of drug interaction. Out of 311 patients in the psychiatric unit, 63 (20.2% used antidepressants and 13 of them (20.6% were at risk. Out of 87 patients in the affective disorders outpatient clinic, 43 (49.4% took antidepressants and 7 (16.2% were at risk. In general, the use of antidepressants was recorded in 169 patients and 36 (21.3% were at risk of drug interactions. Twenty different forms of combinations at risk of drug interactions were identified: four were classified as mild, 15 moderate and one severe interaction. CONCLUSION: In the hospital general units the number of drug interactions per patient was higher than in the psychiatric unit; and prescription for depression was lower than expected.

  18. Community-based stillbirth rates and risk factors in rural Sarlahi, Nepal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Anne C; Mullany, Luke C; Tielsch, James M; Katz, Joanne; Khatry, Subarna K; Leclerq, Steven C; Adhikari, Ramesh K; Darmstadt, Gary L

    2011-06-01

    To assess stillbirth rates and antepartum risk factors in rural Nepal. Data were collected prospectively during a cluster-randomized, community-based trial in Sarlahi, Nepal, from 2002 to 2006. Multivariate regression modeling was performed to calculate adjusted relative risk estimates. Among 24531 births, the stillbirth rate was 35.4 per 1000 births (term stillbirth rate 21.2 per 1000 births). Most births occurred at home without a skilled birth attendant. The majority (69%) of intrapartum maternal deaths resulted in stillbirth. The adjusted RR (aRR) of stillbirth was 2.74 among nulliparas and 1.47 among mothers with history of a child death. Mothers above the age of 30 years carried a 1.59-fold higher risk for stillbirth than mothers who were 20-24 years old. The stillbirth risk was lower among households where the father had any formal education (aRR 0.70). Land ownership (aRR 0.85) and Pahadi ethnicity (aRR 0.67; reference: Madhesi ethnicity) were associated with significantly lower risks of stillbirth. Stillbirth rates were high in rural Nepal, with the majority of stillbirths occurring at full-term gestation. Nulliparity, history of prior child loss, maternal age above 30 years, Madhesi ethnicity, and socioeconomic disadvantage were significant risk factors for stillbirth. Clinicaltrials.govNCT00 109616. Copyright © 2011 International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Failure rate data for fusion safety and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cadwallader, L.C.

    1993-01-01

    The Fusion Safety Program (FSP) at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) conducts safety research in materials, chemical reactions, safety analysis, risk assessment, and in component research and development to support existing magnetic fusion experiments and also to promote safety in the design of future experiments. One of the areas of safety research is applying probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methods to fusion experiments. To apply PRA, we need a fusion-relevant radiological dose code and a component failure rate data base. This paper describes the FSP effort to develop a failure rate data base for fusion-specific components

  20. Differential Risk of Peptic Ulcer Among Users of Antidepressants Combined With Nonsteroidal Anti-inflammatory Drugs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shin, Ju-Young; Song, Inmyung; Lee, Jin-Ho; Yoon, Jong Lull; Kwon, Jun Soo; Park, Byung-Joo

    2017-04-01

    Selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) have been reported to have an increased risk of gastrointestinal adverse events, and the risk may be further increased by combined use of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs). However, little has been known about the risk of peptic ulcer associated with other classes of antidepressants or individual antidepressants combined with NSAIDs. We conducted a retrospective cohort study to define the risk of peptic ulcer associated with combined use of antidepressants and NSAIDs, as compared with use of antidepressants alone. Using the Korean Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service database, we identified a total of 1,127,622 patients who began receiving antidepressants between 2009 and 2012. Propensity-based matching and Cox proportional hazards models were used to compare the risk of peptic ulcer between antidepressant users with NSAIDs and those without NSAIDs matched in a 1:1 ratio, for a total of 768,850 patients. The risk of peptic ulcer did not increase with combined use of overall antidepressants and NSAIDs, as compared with antidepressant use alone (hazard ratio [HR], 1.02; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.99-1.06). A slightly increased risk was observed for combined use of NSAIDs with tricyclic antidepressants (HR, 1.15; 95% CI, 1.09-1.21) and with SSRIs (HR, 1.08; 95% CI, 1.01-1.16). We found that although concomitant use of NSAIDs and antidepressants was not associated with an increased risk of peptic ulcer for antidepressants in general, it was so for some specific classes including tricyclic antidepressants and SSRIs. However, we cannot rule out the possibility that the increased risk was solely due to NSAID use.

  1. Vaginal progesterone combined with cervical pessary: A chance for pregnancies at risk for preterm birth?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stricker, Nathanael; Timmesfeld, Nina; Kyvernitakis, Ioannis; Goerges, Janina; Arabin, Birgit

    2016-06-01

    Precocious cervical ripening, as defined by cervical shortening on transvaginal sonography, has prompted a broad evaluation of secondary strategies (such as cerclage, vaginal progesterone, or a cervical pessary) to prevent preterm delivery. However, there is still a lack of direct comparisons between individual treatments or their combinations. We sought to compare at-risk patients and screening patients who had been treated with cervical pessary alone with patients who had been treated with pessary plus vaginal progesterone. This is a pre- and postintervention cohort study from a preterm labor clinic where placement of a cervical pessary has been the standard treatment since 2008 for at-risk women defined by (1) a history of spontaneous preterm birth at suppositories) was prescribed in addition to the pessary. Both at-risk patients (n = 55) and screening patients (n = 51) were treated at the time of diagnosis. The primary outcome was the rate of preterm deliveries at <34 weeks of gestation. Secondary outcomes included deliveries at <28, <32, and <37 weeks of gestation, the days from start of therapy until delivery, a composite index of neonatal outcome, and the number of days in the neonatal intensive care unit. Primary and secondary outcomes were compared between groups with the use of multivariable models to adjust for possible confounders. Delivery at <34 weeks of gestation occurred in 17 of 53 patients (32.1%) who were treated with pessary plus progesterone, compared with 13 of 53 patients (24.5%) who were treated with pessary alone (P = .57). Similarly, there was no difference in the rate of preterm delivery at <28, <32, or <37 weeks of gestation. The composite poor neonatal outcome was 15.1% in the pessary group vs 18.9% in the combined group (P = .96). The mean duration of stay in the neonatal intensive care unit was 46.5 days (range, 9-130 days) in the combined vs 52.0 days (range, 3-151 days) in the pessary group (P < .001). In this cohort study

  2. KRW/USD Exchange Rate Volatility and Efficient Risk Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sang-Yong Joo

    1999-03-01

    Full Text Available This thesis analyzes the relationship between the exchange rate of Korean Won and US dollar and the amount of foreign exchange, and studies the direction of the amendment of the risk control of foreign exchange. The GARCH (Generalized Auto Regressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity model which visually embodies the auto-regress of the wave of exchange rate shows that the amount of trade will enhance the fluidity of the exchange rate, that is, the various expects of the participators of the market affect the amount of trade and the fluidity, so in the process of trading, the trader who is in the dry tree of information bears more trading expenditure. It is predicted that the liberalization of foreign exchange rate and fluctuated exchange rate system will jointly bring the enhancement of the fluidity of the exchange rate and the amount of exchange trade. The change of this system will bring the rise of participators in foreign exchange market; meanwhile, it will also initiate superfluous fluidity of foreign exchange market. In order to overcome this problem, the government needs to implement the development strategy of the understructure of the foreign exchange market and the enterprises need to carry through systemic exchange rate risk control.

  3. Combining numerical simulations with time-domain random walk for pathogen risk assessment in groundwater

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cvetkovic, V.; Molin, S.

    2012-02-01

    We present a methodology that combines numerical simulations of groundwater flow and advective transport in heterogeneous porous media with analytical retention models for computing the infection risk probability from pathogens in aquifers. The methodology is based on the analytical results presented in [1,2] for utilising the colloid filtration theory in a time-domain random walk framework. It is shown that in uniform flow, the results from the numerical simulations of advection yield comparable results as the analytical TDRW model for generating advection segments. It is shown that spatial variability of the attachment rate may be significant, however, it appears to affect risk in a different manner depending on if the flow is uniform or radially converging. In spite of the fact that numerous issues remain open regarding pathogen transport in aquifers on the field scale, the methodology presented here may be useful for screening purposes, and may also serve as a basis for future studies that would include greater complexity.

  4. Combination Immunotherapy for the Treatment of High-Risk HER2-Positive Breast Cancer

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-10-01

    AWARD NUMBER: W81XWH-14-1-0109 TITLE: Combination Immunotherapy for the Treatment of High-Risk HER2-Positive Breast Cancer PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR...Elizabeth A. Mittendorf, MD, PhD CONTRACTING ORGANIZATION: University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center Houston, TX 77030 REPORT DATE: October...CONTRACT NUMBER Combination Immunotherapy for the Treatment of High-Risk HER2-Positive Breast Cancer 5b. GRANT NUMBER W81XWH-14-1-0109 5c. PROGRAM

  5. The Exposure of Mortgage Borrowers to Interest Rate Risk, Income Risk and House Price Risk – Evidence from Swiss Loan Application Data

    OpenAIRE

    Guin, Benjamin; Brown, Martin

    2015-01-01

    We study the exposure of mortgage borrowers in Switzerland to interest rate, income and house price risks and examine how the households’ choice of risky mortgages is related to individual interest rate expectations and risk-aversion. Our analysis is based on a unique data set of household mortgage applications from September 2012 until January 2014. Our assessment of risk exposure among mortgage borrowers in Switzerland is highly sensitive to the underlying assumptions on mortgage costs, hou...

  6. Combined use of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs with diuretics and/or renin-angiotensin system inhibitors in the community increases the risk of acute kidney injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dreischulte, Tobias; Morales, Daniel R; Bell, Samira; Guthrie, Bruce

    2015-08-01

    Nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) are associated with an increased risk of acute kidney injury (AKI) when used in triple combination with renin-angiotensin system inhibitors and diuretics, but previous research reported that NSAIDs in dual combinations with either renin-angiotensin system inhibitors or diuretics alone were not. However, earlier studies relied on hospital coding to define AKI, which may underestimate true risk. This nested case-control study characterized the risk of community-acquired AKI associated with NSAID use among 78,379 users of renin-angiotensin system inhibitors and/or diuretics, where AKI was defined as a 50% or greater increase in creatinine from baseline. The AKI incidence was 68/10,000 person-years. The relative increase in AKI risk was similar for NSAID use in both triple (adjusted rate ratio 1.64 (95% CI 1.25-2.14)) and dual combinations with either renin-angiotensin system inhibitors (1.60 (1.18-2.17)) or diuretics (1.64 (1.17-2.29)). However, the absolute increase in AKI risk was higher for NSAIDs used in triple versus dual combinations with renin-angiotensin system inhibitors or diuretics alone (numbers needed to harm for 1 year treatment with NSAID of 158 vs. over 300). AKI risk was highest among users of loop diuretic/aldosterone antagonist combinations, in those over 75 years of age, and in those with renal impairment. Thus, the nephrotoxic potential of both dual and triple combinations of NSAIDs with renin-angiotensin system inhibitors and/or diuretics yields a higher incidence of AKI than previously thought.

  7. Dose of Biocoagulant-Mixing Rate Combinations for Optimum Reduction of COD in Wastewater

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patricia, Maria Faustina; Purwono; Budihardjo, Mochamad Arief

    2018-02-01

    Chemical oxygen demand (COD) in domestic wastewater can be treated using flocculation-coagulation process with addition of Oyster mushroom (Pleurotus ostreatus) in powder form as biocoagulant. The fungal cell wall of Oyster mushroom comprises of chitin that is high polyelectrolyte and can be function as an absorbent of heavy metals in wastewater. The effectiveness of flocculation-coagulation process in treating wastewater depends on dose of coagulant and mixing rate. Therefore, this study aims to determine the best combination of three variation of dose of biocoagulant which are 600 mg/l, 1000 mg/l, and 2000 mg/l and mixing rate which are 100 rpm, 125 rpm, and 150 rpm that give the most reduction of COD in the wastewater. The result indicates that the combination of 1000 mg/l of biocoagulant and 100 rpm of mixing rate were found to be the most optimum combination to treat COD in the wastewater with COD reduction of 47.7%.

  8. Dose of Biocoagulant-Mixing Rate Combinations for Optimum Reduction of COD in Wastewater

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Faustina Patricia Maria

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Chemical oxygen demand (COD in domestic wastewater can be treated using flocculation-coagulation process with addition of Oyster mushroom (Pleurotus ostreatus in powder form as biocoagulant. The fungal cell wall of Oyster mushroom comprises of chitin that is high polyelectrolyte and can be function as an absorbent of heavy metals in wastewater. The effectiveness of flocculation-coagulation process in treating wastewater depends on dose of coagulant and mixing rate. Therefore, this study aims to determine the best combination of three variation of dose of biocoagulant which are 600 mg/l, 1000 mg/l, and 2000 mg/l and mixing rate which are 100 rpm, 125 rpm, and 150 rpm that give the most reduction of COD in the wastewater. The result indicates that the combination of 1000 mg/l of biocoagulant and 100 rpm of mixing rate were found to be the most optimum combination to treat COD in the wastewater with COD reduction of 47.7%.

  9. Explore the Application of Financial Engineering in the Management of Exchange Rate Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang Liu

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In the background where the domestic enterprises commonly have a weak protection consciousness against the exchange rate risk, this article makes a deep analysis based on the definition of exchange rate risk and its cause. By comparison of the traditional management method of exchange rate risk with another one based on financial engineering tools, it also deeply analyzes the method to use the financial engineering technology in the management of exchange rate risk, and concludes the primary purpose of exchange rate risk management is for hedging. This article proposes an optimal analysis method in two aspects, namely the minimum risk and maximum efficiency, for the forward-based optimal hedging, and proposes an optimal analysis method of dynamic hedging for the optimal hedging of option-based tools. Based on the description of the application of financial tools in foreign exchange futures, forward contract, currency exchange and foreign exchange option, it makes an empirical analysis on the management of foreign exchange risk by taking an assumed T company as the carrier and based on the trading tools of forward foreign exchange and currency option, which describes the operation procedure of financial tools in a more direct way and proves the efficiency of the optimal analysis method of this article.

  10. Combined effects of road traffic noise and ambient air pollution in relation to risk for stroke?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sørensen, Mette; Lühdorf, Pernille; Ketzel, Matthias; Andersen, Zorana J; Tjønneland, Anne; Overvad, Kim; Raaschou-Nielsen, Ole

    2014-08-01

    Exposure to road traffic noise and air pollution have both been associated with risk for stroke. The few studies including both exposures show inconsistent results. We aimed to investigate potential mutual confounding and combined effects between road traffic noise and air pollution in association with risk for stroke. In a population-based cohort of 57,053 people aged 50-64 years at enrollment, we identified 1999 incident stroke cases in national registries, followed by validation through medical records. Mean follow-up time was 11.2 years. Present and historical residential addresses from 1987 to 2009 were identified in national registers and road traffic noise and air pollution were modeled for all addresses. Analyses were done using Cox regression. A higher mean annual exposure at time of diagnosis of 10 µg/m(3) nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and 10 dB road traffic noise at the residential address was associated with ischemic stroke with incidence rate ratios (IRR) of 1.11 (95% CI: 1.03, 1.20) and 1.16 (95% CI: 1.07, 1.24), respectively, in single exposure models. In two-exposure models road traffic noise (IRR: 1.15) and not NO2 (IRR: 1.02) was associated with ischemic stroke. The strongest association was found for combination of high noise and high NO2 (IRR=1.28; 95% CI=1.09-1.52). Fatal stroke was positively associated with air pollution and not with traffic noise. In conclusion, in mutually adjusted models road traffic noise and not air pollution was associated ischemic stroke, while only air pollution affected risk for fatal strokes. There were indications of combined effects. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Dependence and risk assessment for oil prices and exchange rate portfolios: A wavelet based approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aloui, Chaker; Jammazi, Rania

    2015-10-01

    In this article, we propose a wavelet-based approach to accommodate the stylized facts and complex structure of financial data, caused by frequent and abrupt changes of markets and noises. Specifically, we show how the combination of both continuous and discrete wavelet transforms with traditional financial models helps improve portfolio's market risk assessment. In the empirical stage, three wavelet-based models (wavelet-EGARCH with dynamic conditional correlations, wavelet-copula, and wavelet-extreme value) are considered and applied to crude oil price and US dollar exchange rate data. Our findings show that the wavelet-based approach provides an effective and powerful tool for detecting extreme moments and improving the accuracy of VaR and Expected Shortfall estimates of oil-exchange rate portfolios after noise is removed from the original data.

  12. Benchmarking Discount Rate in Natural Resource Damage Assessment with Risk Aversion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Desheng; Chen, Shuzhen

    2017-08-01

    Benchmarking a credible discount rate is of crucial importance in natural resource damage assessment (NRDA) and restoration evaluation. This article integrates a holistic framework of NRDA with prevailing low discount rate theory, and proposes a discount rate benchmarking decision support system based on service-specific risk aversion. The proposed approach has the flexibility of choosing appropriate discount rates for gauging long-term services, as opposed to decisions based simply on duration. It improves injury identification in NRDA since potential damages and side-effects to ecosystem services are revealed within the service-specific framework. A real embankment case study demonstrates valid implementation of the method. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  13. Low mortality rates after endovascular aortic repair expand use to high-risk patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adkar, Shaunak S; Turner, Megan C; Leraas, Harold J; Gilmore, Brian F; Nag, Uttara; Turley, Ryan S; Shortell, Cynthia K; Mureebe, Leila

    2018-02-01

    The 2010 endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) trial 2 (EVAR 2) reported that patients with comorbidity profiles rendering them unfit for open aneurysm repair who underwent EVAR did not experience a survival advantage compared with those who did not undergo intervention. These patients experienced a 30-day mortality of 7.3%, whereas reports from similar cohorts reported far lower mortality rates. The primary objective of our study was to compare the incidence of 30-day mortality in low- and high-risk patients undergoing EVAR in a contemporary data set, using patient risk stratification criteria from EVAR 2. Secondarily, we sought to identify risk factors associated with a disproportionate contribution to 30-day mortality risk. Data were obtained from the 2005 to 2013 American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS NSQIP) Participant Use Data Files (N = 24,813). Patients were included in the high-risk cohort with the presence of renal, respiratory, or cardiac preoperative criteria alone or in combination. Renal impairment criteria were defined as dialysis and creatinine concentration >2.26 mg/dL. Respiratory impairment criteria included history of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and preoperative ventilator support. Cardiac impairment criteria included history of myocardial infarction, congestive heart failure, angina, and prior coronary intervention. Patient and procedural characteristics and 30-day postoperative outcomes were compared using Pearson χ 2 tests for categorical variables and Wilcoxon rank sum tests for continuous variables. Among 24,813 patients undergoing EVAR, 12,043 (48%) patients were characterized as high risk (at least one impairment criterion); 12,770 (52%) patients were stratified as low risk. The 30-day mortality rate was 1.9% in the high-risk cohort compared with the 7.3% reported by EVAR 2, and it was higher in the high-risk cohort compared with the low-risk cohort (1.9% vs 0.9%; P < .001). Whereas the

  14. Risk and complication rate of uterine fibroid embolization (UFE)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Radeleff, B.; Rimbach, S.; Kauffmann, G.W.; Richter, G.M.

    2003-01-01

    Our goal was to evaluate risks and complication rate of uterine fibroid embolization (UFE). The most frequent complications reported in the literature are associated with angiography procedure, serious complications are extremely infrequent. The embolization of fibroids is a safe angiographic intervention. Nevertheless, the interventional radiologist must be aware of the common risks and complication and the strategies to avoid them. (orig.) [de

  15. Self-stimulating rats combine subjective reward magnitude and subjective reward rate multiplicatively.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leon, M I; Gallistel, C R

    1998-07-01

    For rats that bar pressed for intracranial electrical stimulation in a 2-lever matching paradigm with concurrent variable interval schedules of reward, the authors found that the time allocation ratio is based on a multiplicative combination of the ratio of subjective reward magnitudes and the ratio of the rates of reward. Multiplicative combining was observed in a range covering approximately 2 orders of magnitude in the ratio of the rates of reward from about 1:10 to 10:1) and an order of magnitude change in the size of rewards. After determining the relation between the pulse frequency of stimulation and subjective reward magnitude, the authors were able to predict from knowledge of the subjective magnitudes of the rewards and the obtained relative rates of reward the subject's time allocation ratio over a range in which it varied by more than 3 orders of magnitude.

  16. Combined approach to reduced duration integrated leakage rate testing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Galanti, P.J.

    1987-01-01

    Even though primary reactor containment allowable leakage rates are expressed in weight percent per day of contained air, engineers have been attempting to define acceptable methods to test in < 24 h as long as these tests have been performed. The reasons to reduce testing duration are obvious, because time not generating electricity is time not generating revenue for the utilities. The latest proposed revision to 10CFR50 Appendix J, concerning integrated leakage rate testing (ILRTs), was supplemented with a draft regulatory guide proposing yet another method. This paper proposes a method that includes elements of currently accepted concepts for short duration testing with a standard statistical check for criteria acceptance. Following presentation of the method, several cases are presented showing the results of these combined criteria

  17. Vaccination rates among the general adult population and high-risk groups in the United States.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kathy Annunziata

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: In order to adequately assess the effectiveness of vaccination in helping to control vaccine-preventable infectious disease, it is important to identify the adherence and uptake of risk-based recommendations. METHODS: The current project includes data from five consecutive datasets of the National Health and Wellness Survey (NHWS: 2007 through 2011. The NHWS is an annual, Internet-based health questionnaire, administered to a nationwide sample of adults (aged 18 or older which included items on vaccination history as well as high-risk group status. Vaccination rates and characteristics of vaccinees were reported descriptively. Logistic regressions were conducted to predict vaccination behavior from sociodemographics and risk-related variables. RESULTS: The influenza vaccination rate for all adults 18 years and older has increased significantly from 28.0% to 36.2% from 2007 to 2011 (ps<.05. Compared with those not at high risk (25.1%, all high-risk groups were vaccinated at a higher rate, from 36.8% (pregnant women to 69.7% (those with renal/kidney disease; however, considerable variability among high-risk groups was observed. Vaccination rates among high-risk groups for other vaccines varied considerably though all were below 50%, with the exception of immunocompromised respondents (57.5% for the hepatitis B vaccine and 52.5% for the pneumococcal vaccine and the elderly (50.4% for the pneumococcal. Multiple risk factors were associated with increased rate of vaccination for most vaccines. Significant racial/ethnic differences with influenza, hepatitis, and herpes zoster vaccination rates were also observed (ps<.05. CONCLUSIONS: Rates of influenza vaccination have increased over time. Rates varied by high-risk status, demographics, and vaccine. There was a pattern of modest vaccination rate increases for individuals with multiple risk factors. However, there were relatively low rates of vaccination for most risk-based recommendations

  18. Combined student ratings and self-assessment provide useful feedback for clinical teachers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dolmans, Diana H. J. M.; Wolfhagen, Ineke H. A. P.; Peters, Wim G.; van Coppenolle, Lieve; Scherpbier, Albert J. J. A.

    2009-01-01

    Many evaluation instruments have been developed to provide feedback to physicians on their clinical teaching but written feedback alone is not always effective. We explored whether feedback effectiveness improved when teachers’ self-assessment was added to written feedback based on student ratings. 37 physicians (10 residents, 27 attending physicians) from different specialties (Internal Medicine, Surgery, Obstetrics/Gynecology, Pediatrics, Neurology, Dermatology, Ophthalmology, ENT, and Psychiatry) were invited to fill out a self-assessment questionnaire on their teaching skills. Students completed an almost identical questionnaire to evaluate the same teachers based on their experiences during clerkships. After receiving written feedback incorporating their self-assessment and the student ratings, the teachers indicated their perceptions of the self-assessment exercise and the written feedback in a questionnaire (five-point Likert scale items) and next, in more detail, in semi-structured interviews with a purposive sample of 12 of the participating teachers. 25 physicians participated (67%). The results showed that self-assessment and student feedback were both perceived as useful (3.7, SD 1.0) but the latter was considered more effective. The physicians we interviewed considered the combination of self-assessment with student ratings more effective than either self-assessment or written feedback alone. Notably, discrepancies between student ratings and self-assessment were deemed a strong incentive for change. We conclude that self-assessment can be a useful tool to stimulate improvement of clinical teaching when it is combined with written feedback based on student ratings. Future research among larger groups is needed to confirm our findings and examine whether these combined tools actually lead to improved teaching. PMID:19779976

  19. Evaluating the Impact of Prescription Fill Rates on Risk Stratification Model Performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Hsien-Yen; Richards, Thomas M; Shermock, Kenneth M; Elder Dalpoas, Stacy; J Kan, Hong; Alexander, G Caleb; Weiner, Jonathan P; Kharrazi, Hadi

    2017-12-01

    Risk adjustment models are traditionally derived from administrative claims. Prescription fill rates-extracted by comparing electronic health record prescriptions and pharmacy claims fills-represent a novel measure of medication adherence and may improve the performance of risk adjustment models. We evaluated the impact of prescription fill rates on claims-based risk adjustment models in predicting both concurrent and prospective costs and utilization. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 43,097 primary care patients from HealthPartners network between 2011 and 2012. Diagnosis and/or pharmacy claims of 2011 were used to build 3 base models using the Johns Hopkins ACG system, in addition to demographics. Model performances were compared before and after adding 3 types of prescription fill rates: primary 0-7 days, primary 0-30 days, and overall. Overall fill rates utilized all ordered prescriptions from electronic health record while primary fill rates excluded refill orders. The overall, primary 0-7, and 0-30 days fill rates were 72.30%, 59.82%, and 67.33%. The fill rates were similar between sexes but varied across different medication classifications, whereas the youngest had the highest rate. Adding fill rates modestly improved the performance of all models in explaining medical costs (improving concurrent R by 1.15% to 2.07%), followed by total costs (0.58% to 1.43%), and pharmacy costs (0.07% to 0.65%). The impact was greater for concurrent costs compared with prospective costs. Base models without diagnosis information showed the highest improvement using prescription fill rates. Prescription fill rates can modestly enhance claims-based risk prediction models; however, population-level improvements in predicting utilization are limited.

  20. KRW/USD Exchange Rate Volatility and Efficient Risk Management

    OpenAIRE

    Sang-Yong Joo; Chae-Shick Chung; Young-Woo Lee

    1999-01-01

    This thesis analyzes the relationship between the exchange rate of Korean Won and US dollar and the amount of foreign exchange, and studies the direction of the amendment of the risk control of foreign exchange. The GARCH (Generalized Auto Regressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity) model which visually embodies the auto-regress of the wave of exchange rate shows that the amount of trade will enhance the fluidity of the exchange rate, that is, the various expects of the participators of the ma...

  1. Suicide rates and risk factors among Korean cancer patients, 1993-2005.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahn, Eunmi; Shin, Dong Wook; Cho, Sung-Il; Park, Sohee; Won, Young-Joo; Yun, Young Ho

    2010-08-01

    As the number of cancer survivors increases, suicide risk approaches that of the general population. We therefore investigated suicide rates and risk factors among Korean cancer patients. We observed 816,295 cancer patients for 3,007,294 person-years from 1993 to 2005 through a nationwide cancer registry. We calculated their sex- and age-standardized mortality ratios (SMR) and studied suicide risk factors using rate ratios (RR) based on a log-linear Poisson regression model. Compared with the Korean general population, the suicide rate among cancer patients was high [SMR, 2.00; 95% confidence interval (95% CI), 1.91-2.08]. The rates were highest in the year following the cancer diagnosis (SMR, 3.45; 95% CI, 3.19-3.73) and were still elevated 5 years later (SMR, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.12-1.36). The clinical groups at highest risk were male pancreas cancer patients (SMR, 6.01; 95% CI, 4.33-8.33) and female lung cancer patients (SMR, 3.55; 95% CI, 2.55-4.94). The sociodemographic groups at highest risk were those who had no spouse versus those who were married (RR, 1.50; 95% CI, 1.35-1.68), those who were not employed versus those who were (RR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.26-1.54), and those who did not have high school education versus those who had (RR, 1.52; 95% CI, 1.30-1.79). Korean cancer patients are at increased risk of suicide. Both clinical and sociodemographic factors play a role. There is a need for social support and suicide prevention strategies for cancer survivors in Korea. (c)2010 AACR.

  2. Rectal Bleeding After High-Dose-Rate Brachytherapy Combined With Hypofractionated External-Beam Radiotherapy for Localized Prostate Cancer: The Relationship Between Dose-Volume Histogram Parameters and the Occurrence Rate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Okamoto, Masahiko; Ishikawa, Hitoshi; Ebara, Takeshi; Kato, Hiroyuki; Tamaki, Tomoaki; Akimoto, Tetsuo; Ito, Kazuto; Miyakubo, Mai; Yamamoto, Takumi; Suzuki, Kazuhiro; Takahashi, Takeo; Nakano, Takashi

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: To determine the predictive risk factors for Grade 2 or worse rectal bleeding after high-dose-rate brachytherapy (HDR-BT) combined with hypofractionated external-beam radiotherapy (EBRT) for prostate cancer using dose–volume histogram analysis. Methods and Materials: The records of 216 patients treated with HDR-BT combined with EBRT were analyzed. The treatment protocols for HDR-BT were 5 Gy × five times in 3 days or 7 Gy × three, 10.5 Gy × two, or 9 Gy × two in 2 days. The EBRT doses ranged from 45 to 51 Gy with a fractional dose of 3 Gy. Results: In 20 patients Grade 2 or worse rectal bleeding developed, and the cumulative incidence rate was 9% at 5 years. By converting the HDR-BT and EBRT radiation doses into biologic effective doses (BED), the BED 3 at rectal volumes of 5% and 10% in the patients who experienced bleeding were significantly higher than those in the remaining 196 patients. Univariate analysis showed that a higher rectal BED 3–5% and the use of fewer needles in brachytherapy were correlated with the incidence of bleeding, but BED 3–5% was found to be the only significant factor on multivariate analysis. Conclusions: The radiation dose delivered to small rectal lesions as 5% is important for predicting Grade 2 or worse rectal bleeding after HDR-BT combined with EBRT for prostate cancer.

  3. Concordance of Motion Sensor and Clinician-Rated Fall Risk Scores in Older Adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elledge, Julie

    2017-12-01

    As the older adult population in the United States continues to grow, developing reliable, valid, and practical methods for identifying fall risk is a high priority. Falls are prevalent in older adults and contribute significantly to morbidity and mortality rates and rising health costs. Identifying at-risk older adults and intervening in a timely manner can reduce falls. Conventional fall risk assessment tools require a health professional trained in the use of each tool for administration and interpretation. Motion sensor technology, which uses three-dimensional cameras to measure patient movements, is promising for assessing older adults' fall risk because it could eliminate or reduce the need for provider oversight. The purpose of this study was to assess the concordance of fall risk scores as measured by a motion sensor device, the OmniVR Virtual Rehabilitation System, with clinician-rated fall risk scores in older adult outpatients undergoing physical rehabilitation. Three standardized fall risk assessments were administered by the OmniVR and by a clinician. Validity of the OmniVR was assessed by measuring the concordance between the two assessment methods. Stability of the OmniVR fall risk ratings was assessed by measuring test-retest reliability. The OmniVR scores showed high concordance with the clinician-rated scores and high stability over time, demonstrating comparability with provider measurements.

  4. Freight-train derailment rates for railroad safety and risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xiang; Rapik Saat, M; Barkan, Christopher P L

    2017-01-01

    Derailments are the most common type of train accident in the United States. They cause damage to infrastructure, rolling stock and lading, disrupt service, and have the potential to cause casualties, and harm the environment. Train safety and risk analysis relies on accurate assessment of derailment likelihood. Derailment rate - the number of derailments normalized by traffic exposure - is a useful statistic to estimate the likelihood of a derailment. Despite its importance, derailment rate analysis using multiple factors has not been previously developed. In this paper, we present an analysis of derailment rates on Class I railroad mainlines based on data from the U.S. Federal Railroad Administration and the major freight railroads. The point estimator and confidence interval of train and car derailment rates are developed by FRA track class, method of operation and annual traffic density. The analysis shows that signaled track with higher FRA track class and higher traffic density is associated with a lower derailment rate. The new accident rates have important implications for safety and risk management decisions, such as the routing of hazardous materials. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Increased rates of cesarean sections and large families: a potentially dangerous combination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saleh, Ahmed M; Dudenhausen, Joachim W; Ahmed, Badreldeen

    2017-07-26

    Rates of cesarean sections have been on the rise over the past three decades all over the world, despite the ideal rate of 10-15% that had been set by the World Health Organization (WHO) in 1985, in Fortaleza, Brazil. This epidemic increase in the rate of cesarean delivery is due to many factors which include, cesarean delivery on request, advanced maternal age at first pregnancy, decrease in number of patients who are willing to try vaginal birth after cesarean delivery, virtual disappearance of vaginal breech delivery, perceived increase in the weight of the fetus and increase in the number of women with chronic medical conditions such as Diabetes Mellitus and congenital heart disease in the reproductive age. There is no doubt that cesarean delivery is a safe procedure and it is getting safer and safer for many reasons. However, like all other surgical procedures it is not without risks both to the mother and the new born. There is a substantial increase in the incidence of morbidly adherent placenta and the risk of scar pregnancy. In the Middle East and many African and Asian countries women tend to have large families. The number of previous cesarean section deliveries is directly proportional to the risk of developing morbidly adherent placenta. Morbidly adherent placenta is the most common cause of emergency postpartum hysterectomy, which is often associated with multiple surgical complications, severe maternal morbidity and mortality. The increased rates of cesarean sections lead to increased rates of scar pregnancies, which can have lethal consequences. Cesarean delivery has a negative impact on the infant immune system. This effect on the infant led to the introduction of a new concept called "Vaginal seeding". This refers to the practice of transferring some maternal vaginal fluid to the infant born via cesarean section in an effort to enhance its immune system.

  6. Individual and Population Level Impact of Key HIV Risk Factors on HIV Incidence Rates in Durban, South Africa.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gita Ramjee

    Full Text Available We aimed to estimate the individual and joint impact of age, marital status and diagnosis with sexually transmitted infections (STIs on HIV acquisition among young women at a population level in Durban, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. A total of 3,978 HIV seronegative women were recruited for four biomedical intervention trials from 2002-2009. Point and interval estimates of partial population attributable risk (PAR were used to quantify the proportion of HIV seroconversions which can be prevented if a combination of risk factors is eliminated from a target population. More than 70% of the observed HIV acquisitions were collectively attributed to the three risk factors: younger age (<25 years old, unmarried and not cohabiting with a stable/regular partner and diagnosis with STIs. Addressing these risks requires targeted structural, behavioural, biomedical and cultural interventions in order to impact on unacceptably high HIV incidence rates among young women and the population as a whole.

  7. Combining radar and direct observation to estimate pelican collision risk at a proposed wind farm on the Cape west coast, South Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenkins, Andrew R; Reid, Tim; du Plessis, Johan; Colyn, Robin; Benn, Grant; Millikin, Rhonda

    2018-01-01

    Pre-construction assessments of bird collision risk at proposed wind farms are often confounded by insufficient or poor quality data describing avian flight paths through the development area. These limitations can compromise the practical value of wind farm impact studies. We used radar- and observer-based methods to quantify great white pelican flights in the vicinity of a planned wind farm on the Cape west coast, South Africa, and modelled turbine collision risk under various scenarios. Model outputs were combined with pre-existing demographic data to evaluate the possible influence of the wind farm on the pelican population, and to examine impact mitigation options. We recorded high volumes of great white pelican movement through the wind farm area, coincident with the breeding cycle of the nearby colony and associated with flights to feeding areas located about 50 km away. Pelicans were exposed to collision risk at a mean rate of 2.02 High Risk flights.h-1. Risk was confined to daylight hours, highest during the middle of the day and in conditions of strong north-westerly winds, and 82% of High Risk flights were focused on only five of the proposed 35 turbine placements. Predicted mean mortality rates (22 fatalities.yr-1, 95% Cl, 16-29, with average bird and blade speeds and 95% avoidance rates) were not sustainable, resulting in a negative population growth rate (λ = 0.991). Models suggested that removal of the five highest risk turbines from the project, or institution of a curtailment regimen that shuts down at least these turbines at peak traffic times, could theoretically reduce impacts to manageable levels. However, in spite of the large quantities of high quality data used in our analyses, our collision risk model remains compromised by untested assumptions about pelican avoidance rates and uncertainties about the existing dynamics of the pelican population, and our findings are probably not reliable enough to ensure sustainable development.

  8. Association Between NCAP Ratings and Real-World Rear Seat Occupant Risk of Injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Metzger, Kristina B; Gruschow, Siobhan; Durbin, Dennis R; Curry, Allison E

    2015-01-01

    Several studies have evaluated the correlation between U.S. or Euro New Car Assessment Program (NCAP) ratings and injury risk to front seat occupants, in particular driver injuries. Conversely, little is known about whether NCAP 5-star ratings predict real-world risk of injury to restrained rear seat occupants. The NHTSA has identified rear seat occupant protection as a specific area under consideration for improvements to its NCAP. In order to inform NHTSA's efforts, we examined how NCAP's current 5-star rating system predicts risk of moderate or greater injury among restrained rear seat occupants in real-world crashes. We identified crash-involved vehicles, model year 2004-2013, in NASS-CDS (2003-2012) with known make and model and nonmissing occupant information. We manually matched these vehicles to their NCAP star ratings using data on make, model, model year, body type, and other identifying information. The resultant linked NASS-CDS and NCAP database was analyzed to examine associations between vehicle ratings and rear seat occupant injury risk; risk to front seat occupants was also estimated for comparison. Data were limited to restrained occupants and occupant injuries were defined as any injury with a maximum Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) score of 2 or greater. We linked 95% of vehicles in NASS-CDS to a specific vehicle in NCAP. The 18,218 vehicles represented an estimated 6 million vehicles with over 9 million occupants. Rear seat passengers accounted for 12.4% of restrained occupants. The risk of injury in all crashes for restrained rear seat occupants was lower in vehicles with a 5-star driver rating in frontal impact tests (1.4%) than with 4 or fewer stars (2.6%, P =.015); results were similar for the frontal impact passenger rating (1.3% vs. 2.4%, P =.024). Conversely, side impact driver and passenger crash tests were not associated with rear seat occupant injury risk (driver test: 1.7% for 5-star vs. 1.8% for 1-4 stars; passenger test: 1.6% for 5

  9. Global financial crisis, banking crisis and first country risk in the viewpoint of domestic risk rating agencies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dr.Sc. Ingrid Shuli

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available In a period of dire financial crisis, with which all countries seem to cope, it seemed interesting to analyse the assessment of the risk for our country, viewed from the vantage point of our domestic rating agencies, but also compared to assessments made to our country by international rating agencies, such as Moody’s rating agency, Standard & Poor rating agency, Fitch ratings agency etc. The objective of this study is to recognize indicators and factors affecting the risk assessment and rating of a country, and evaluate whether there has been an impact of the financial crisis faced by other countries in the rating given to Albanian by domestic and foreign agencies. We stopped at the history of earlier financial crisis development to understand bewtter what is happening in this financial crisis. We shall develop upon a wide existing literature, and a range of credible resources such as the IMF, the World Bank, the International Institute of Finance, Economic Intelligence Unit, and local official data sources, eg. The Bank of Albania and INSTAT.

  10. A combined telemetry - tag return approach to estimate fishing and natural mortality rates of an estuarine fish

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bacheler, N.M.; Buckel, J.A.; Hightower, J.E.; Paramore, L.M.; Pollock, K.H.

    2009-01-01

    A joint analysis of tag return and telemetry data should improve estimates of mortality rates for exploited fishes; however, the combined approach has thus far only been tested in terrestrial systems. We tagged subadult red drum (Sciaenops ocellatus) with conventional tags and ultrasonic transmitters over 3 years in coastal North Carolina, USA, to test the efficacy of the combined telemetry - tag return approach. There was a strong seasonal pattern to monthly fishing mortality rate (F) estimates from both conventional and telemetry tags; highest F values occurred in fall months and lowest levels occurred during winter. Although monthly F values were similar in pattern and magnitude between conventional tagging and telemetry, information on F in the combined model came primarily from conventional tags. The estimated natural mortality rate (M) in the combined model was low (estimated annual rate ?? standard error: 0.04 ?? 0.04) and was based primarily upon the telemetry approach. Using high-reward tagging, we estimated different tag reporting rates for state agency and university tagging programs. The combined telemetry - tag return approach can be an effective approach for estimating F and M as long as several key assumptions of the model are met.

  11. Lower estimated glomerular filtration rate and higher albuminuria are associated with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. A collaborative meta-analysis of high-risk population cohorts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Velde, Marije; Matsushita, Kunihiro; Coresh, Josef; Astor, Brad C.; Woodward, Mark; Levey, Andrew S.; de Jong, Paul E.; Gansevoort, Ron T.

    Screening for chronic kidney disease is recommended in people at high risk, but data on the independent and combined associations of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and albuminuria with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality are limited. To clarify this, we performed a collaborative

  12. Study the rate of fertility and risk factors of schizophrenia in Najaf, Iraq

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study is designed to investigate the main risk factors, which increased the incidence of schizophrenia and the rate of fertility in patients measuring sex hormones (testosterone and estrogen) and prolactin hormone. The aim of study was to evaluate the fertility rate and risk factors of schizophrenia. Blood samples were ...

  13. Eliciting and Combining Decision Criteria Using a Limited Palette of Utility Functions and Uncertainty Distributions: Illustrated by Application to Pest Risk Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holt, Johnson; Leach, Adrian W; Schrader, Gritta; Petter, Françoise; MacLeod, Alan; van der Gaag, Dirk Jan; Baker, Richard H A; Mumford, John D

    2014-01-01

    Utility functions in the form of tables or matrices have often been used to combine discretely rated decision-making criteria. Matrix elements are usually specified individually, so no one rule or principle can be easily stated for the utility function as a whole. A series of five matrices are presented that aggregate criteria two at a time using simple rules that express a varying degree of constraint of the lower rating over the higher. A further nine possible matrices were obtained by using a different rule either side of the main axis of the matrix to describe situations where the criteria have a differential influence on the outcome. Uncertainties in the criteria are represented by three alternative frequency distributions from which the assessors select the most appropriate. The output of the utility function is a distribution of rating frequencies that is dependent on the distributions of the input criteria. In pest risk analysis (PRA), seven of these utility functions were required to mimic the logic by which assessors for the European and Mediterranean Plant Protection Organization arrive at an overall rating of pest risk. The framework enables the development of PRAs that are consistent and easy to understand, criticize, compare, and change. When tested in workshops, PRA practitioners thought that the approach accorded with both the logic and the level of resolution that they used in the risk assessments. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

  14. [Relationship between performance rating and risk of low back pain in manufacturing line workers].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Higuchi, Yoshiyuki; Funahashi, Atsushi; Izumi, Hiroyuki; Kumashinro, Masaharu

    2012-03-01

    It is possible that the performance rating of line workers is affected by the risk factors for musculoskeletal disorders that are included in their work more so than by the actual takt time. To investigate whether performance rating relates to the risk factors for musculoskeletal disorders, we analyzed a dataset obtained from a self-administered questionnaire answered by assembly line workers (n=1579). As a result, performance rating had a significant association with unsuitable work environments, poor working postures and handling of heavy loads. The workers who reported the fastest rating had a higher exposure than others to the risk factors for occupational low back pain. The results of our study support the effectiveness of performance rating as an index of work burden.

  15. A Study on the Priority Selection of Sediment-related Desaster Evacuation Using Debris Flow Combination Degree of Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woo, C.; Kang, M.; Seo, J.; Kim, D.; Lee, C.

    2017-12-01

    As the mountainous urbanization has increased the concern about landslides in the living area, it is essential to develop the technology to minimize the damage through quick identification and sharing of the disaster occurrence information. In this study, to establish an effective system of alert evacuation that has influence on the residents, we used the debris flow combination degree of risk to predict the risk of the disaster and the level of damage and to select evacuation priorities. Based on the GIS information, the physical strength and social vulnerability were determined by following the debris flow combination of the risk formula. The results classify the physical strength hazard rating of the debris flow combination of the through the normalization process. Debris flow the estimated residential population included in the damage range of the damage prediction map is based on the area and the unit size data. Prediction of occupant formula was calculated by applying different weighting to the resident population and users, and the result was classified into 5 classes as the debris flow physical strength. The debris flow occurrence physical strength and social and psychological vulnerability were classified into the classifications to be reflected in the debris flow integrated risk map using the matrix technique. In addition, to supplement the risk of incorporation of debris flow, we added weight to disaster vulnerable facilities that require a lot of time and manpower to evacuate. The basic model of welfare facilities was supplemented by using basic data, population density, employment density and GDP. First, evacuate areas with high integrated degree of risk level, and evacuate with consideration of physical class differences if classification difficult because of the same or similar grade among the management areas. When the physical hazard class difference is similar, the population difference of the area including the welfare facility is considered

  16. Risks and safety of combination therapy for hypothyroidism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jonklaas, Jacqueline

    2016-08-01

    Hypothyroidism is currently a condition that can be treated, but not cured. Although levothyroxine reverses stigmata of hypothyroidism in most individuals, some patients feel dissatisfied with 'monotherapy', and this has stimulated interest in 'combination therapy' with both levothyroxine and liothyronine. A search of PubMed was conducted using terms including hypothyroidism, treatment, benefits, risks, and safety. Based on the articles identified, the body of evidence regarding the efficacy of traditional levothyroxine is reviewed. Concerns with levothyroxine therapy including impaired quality of life in treated patients, thyroxine-predominant hormone ratios, and inadvertent iatrogenic thyroid disease are discussed. The trials of combination therapy performed since 1999 were reviewed. The heterogeneity of these trials, both in terms of design and results, is discussed. The potential for new trials to determine whether combination therapy can reverse the dissatisfaction associated with monotherapy, while avoiding non-physiologic hormone ratios, inadvertent thyrotoxicosis, and unacceptable side effects is discussed. Expert commentary: Research regarding which therapy fully reverses hypothyroidism at a tissue and cellular level is ongoing. The field would be advanced by the development of an extended release preparation of liothyronine. In the future regeneration of functional thyroid follicles from stem cells may offer hope for curing hypothyroidism.

  17. Hypoxia increases exercise heart rate despite combined inhibition of β-adrenergic and muscarinic receptors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Siebenmann, Christoph; Rasmussen, Peter; Sørensen, Henrik

    2015-01-01

    Hypoxia increases the heart rate (HR) response to exercise but the mechanism(s) remain unclear. We tested the hypothesis that the tachycardic effect of hypoxia persists during separate but not combined inhibition of β-adrenergic and muscarinic receptors. Nine subjects performed incremental exercise...... combined β-adrenergic and muscarinic receptor inhibition....

  18. Combination and Selection of Traffic Safety Expert Judgments for the Prevention of Driving Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrés Redchuk

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we describe a new framework to combine experts’ judgments for the prevention of driving risks in a cabin truck. In addition, the methodology shows how to choose among the experts the one whose predictions fit best the environmental conditions. The methodology is applied over data sets obtained from a high immersive cabin truck simulator in natural driving conditions. A nonparametric model, based in Nearest Neighbors combined with Restricted Least Squared methods is developed. Three experts were asked to evaluate the driving risk using a Visual Analog Scale (VAS, in order to measure the driving risk in a truck simulator where the vehicle dynamics factors were stored. Numerical results show that the methodology is suitable for embedding in real time systems.

  19. Some critical methodological issues in secondary analysis of world health organization data on elderly suicide rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shah, Ajit

    2009-07-01

    Suicides may be misclassified as accidental deaths in countries with strict legal definitions of suicide, with cultural and religious factors leading to poor registration of suicide and stigma attached to suicide. The concordance between four different definitions of suicides was evaluated by examining the relationship between pure suicide and accidental death rates, gender differences, age-associated trends and potential distil risk and protective factors by conducting secondary analysis of the latest World Health Organisation data on elderly death rates. The four definitions of suicide were: (i) one-year pure suicides rates; one-year combined suicide rates (pure suicide rates combined with accidental death rates); (iii) five-year average pure suicide rates; and (iv) five-year average combined suicides rates (pure suicides rates combined with accidental death rates). The predicted negative correlation between pure suicide and accidental death rates was not observed. Gender differences were similar for all four definitions of suicide. There was a highly significant concordance for the findings of age-associated trends between one-year pure and combined suicide rates, one-year and five-year average pure suicide rates, and five-year average pure and combined suicide rates. There was poor concordance between pure and combined suicide rates for both one-year and five-year average data for the 14 potential distil risk and protective factors, but this concordance between one-year and five-year average pure suicide rates was highly significant. The use of one-year pure suicide rates in cross-national ecological studies examining gender differences, age-associated trends and potential distil risk and protective factors is likely to be practical, pragmatic and resource-efficient.

  20. Increased fracture rate in women with breast cancer: a review of the hidden risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Body Jean-Jacques

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Women with breast cancer, particularly individuals diagnosed at a relatively early age, have an increased incidence of fractures. Fractures can have serious clinical consequences including the need for major surgery, increased morbidity and mortality, increased cost of disease management, and reduced quality of life for patients. The primary cause of the increased fracture risk appears to be an accelerated decrease in bone mineral density (BMD resulting from the loss of estrogenic signaling that occurs with most treatments for breast cancer, including aromatase inhibitors. However, factors other than BMD levels alone may influence treatment decisions to reduce fracture risk in this setting. Our purpose is to review current evidence for BMD loss and fracture risk during treatment for breast cancer and discuss pharmacologic means to reduce this risk. Results Fracture risk during treatment for breast cancer may be influenced by the rate of BMD loss and the consequent rapid alterations in bone microarchitecture, in addition to the established fracture risk factors in postmenopausal osteoporosis. The rapid decrease in BMD during adjuvant chemoendocrine therapy for breast cancer may necessitate more aggressive pharmacotherapy than is indicated for healthy postmenopausal women who develop osteoporosis. Over the last few years, clinical trials have established the effectiveness of bisphosphonates and other antiresorptive agents to preserve BMD during adjuvant therapy for early breast cancer. In addition, some bisphosphonates (eg, zoledronic acid may also delay disease recurrence in women with hormone-responsive tumors, thereby providing an adjuvant benefit in addition to preserving BMD and potentially preventing fractures. Conclusions It is likely that a combined fracture risk assessment (eg, as in the WHO FRAX algorithm will more accurately identify both women with postmenopausal osteoporosis and women with breast cancer who require

  1. Impact of Combination Antimicrobial Therapy on Mortality Risk for Critically Ill Patients with Carbapenem-Resistant Bacteremia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauer, Seth R.; Neuner, Elizabeth A.; Lam, Simon W.

    2015-01-01

    There are limited treatment options for carbapenem-resistant Gram-negative infections. Currently, there are suggestions in the literature that combination therapy should be used, which frequently includes antibiotics to which the causative pathogen demonstrates in vitro resistance. This case-control study evaluated risk factors associated with all-cause mortality rates for critically ill patients with carbapenem-resistant Gram-negative bacteremia. Adult patients who were admitted to an intensive care unit with sepsis and a blood culture positive for Gram-negative bacteria resistant to a carbapenem were included. Patients with polymicrobial, recurrent, or breakthrough infections were excluded. Included patients were classified as survivors (controls) or nonsurvivors (cases) at 30 days after the positive blood culture. Of 302 patients screened, 168 patients were included, of whom 90 patients died (53.6% [cases]) and 78 survived (46.4% [controls]) at 30 days. More survivors received appropriate antibiotics (antibiotics with in vitro activity) than did nonsurvivors (93.6% versus 53.3%; P carbapenems) (87.2% versus 80%; P = 0.21). After adjustment for baseline factors with multivariable logistic regression, combination therapy was independently associated with decreased risk of death (odds ratio, 0.19 [95% confidence interval, 0.06 to 0.56]; P carbapenem-resistant Gram-negative bacteremia. However, that association is lost if in vitro activity is not considered. PMID:25845872

  2. Design and Performance Investigation for the Optical Combinational Networks at High Data Rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tripathi, Devendra Kr.

    2017-05-01

    This article explores performance study for optical combinational designs based on nonlinear characteristics with semiconductor optical amplifier (SOA). Two configurations for optical half-adder with non-return-to-zero modulation pattern altogether with Mach-Zehnder modulator, interferometer at 50-Gbps data rate have been successfully realized. Accordingly, SUM and CARRY outputs have been concurrently executed and verified for their output waveforms. Numerical simulations for variation of data rate and key design parameters have been effectively executed outcome with optimum performance. Investigations depict overall good performance of the design in terms of the extinction factor. It also inferred that all-optical realization based on SOA is competent scheme, as it circumvents costly optoelectronic translation. This could be well supportive to erect larger complex optical combinational circuits.

  3. Factors contributing to risk for cancer among HIV-infected individuals, and evidence that earlier combination antiretroviral therapy will alter this risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Borges, Alvaro Humberto Diniz; Dubrow, Robert; Silverberg, Michael J

    2014-01-01

    PURPOSE OF REVIEW: To critically appraise recent published literature about factors associated with cancer risk likely to be influenced by combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) in HIV-infected individuals, and the potential of earlier cART initiation to reduce this risk. RECENT FINDINGS: Fact...

  4. Combining Passive Microwave Rain Rate Retrieval with Visible and Infrared Cloud Classification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Shawn William

    The relation between cloud type and rain rate has been investigated here from different approaches. Previous studies and intercomparisons have indicated that no single passive microwave rain rate algorithm is an optimal choice for all types of precipitating systems. Motivated by the upcoming Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), an algorithm which combines visible and infrared cloud classification with passive microwave rain rate estimation was developed and analyzed in a preliminary manner using data from the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere-Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Response Experiment (TOGA-COARE). Overall correlation with radar rain rate measurements across five case studies showed substantial improvement in the combined algorithm approach when compared to the use of any single microwave algorithm. An automated neural network cloud classifier for use over both land and ocean was independently developed and tested on Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) data. The global classifier achieved strict accuracy for 82% of the test samples, while a more localized version achieved strict accuracy for 89% of its own test set. These numbers provide hope for the eventual development of a global automated cloud classifier for use throughout the tropics and the temperate zones. The localized classifier was used in conjunction with gridded 15-minute averaged radar rain rates at 8km resolution produced from the current operational network of National Weather Service (NWS) radars, to investigate the relation between cloud type and rain rate over three regions of the continental United States and adjacent waters. The results indicate a substantially lower amount of available moisture in the Front Range of the Rocky Mountains than in the Midwest or in the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

  5. Combination Social Protection for Reducing HIV-Risk Behavior Among Adolescents in South Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cluver, Lucie D; Orkin, F Mark; Yakubovich, Alexa R; Sherr, Lorraine

    2016-05-01

    Social protection (ie, cash transfers, free schools, parental support) has potential for adolescent HIV prevention. We aimed to identify which social protection interventions are most effective and whether combined social protection has greater effects in South Africa. In this prospective longitudinal study, we interviewed 3516 adolescents aged 10-18 between 2009 and 2012. We sampled all homes with a resident adolescent in randomly selected census areas in 4 urban and rural sites in 2 South African provinces. We measured household receipt of 14 social protection interventions and incidence of HIV-risk behaviors. Using gender-disaggregated multivariate logistic regression and marginal effects analyses, we assessed respective contributions of interventions and potential combination effects. Child-focused grants, free schooling, school feeding, teacher support, and parental monitoring were independently associated with reduced HIV-risk behavior incidence (odds ratio: 0.10-0.69). Strong effects of combination social protection were shown, with cumulative reductions in HIV-risk behaviors. For example, girls' predicted past-year incidence of economically driven sex dropped from 11% with no interventions to 2% among those with a child grant, free school, and good parental monitoring. Similarly, girls' incidence of unprotected/casual sex or multiple partners dropped from 15% with no interventions to 10% with either parental monitoring or school feeding, and to 7% with both interventions. In real world, high-epidemic conditions, "combination social protection," shows strong HIV prevention effects for adolescents and may maximize prevention efforts.

  6. Statistical properties of country risk ratings under oil price volatility: Evidence from selected oil-exporting countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, Chang; Sun, Xiaolei; Chen, Jianming; Li, Jianping

    2016-01-01

    This paper focuses on the application of panel models for identification and analysis of influence of oil price volatility on statistical properties of country risk ratings which stem from uncertainty of macroeconomic fluctuations. Firstly, two statistical properties of country risk ratings, volatility clustering and asymmetrical revision were identified in a theoretical framework based on Cruces (2006). Secondly, considering the oil price volatility, numerical experiments were conducted based on extended models to test and verify specific properties of country risk ratings in selected oil-exporting countries. Empirical results suggest that properties of country risk remain comparatively steady despite oil price volatility. It is also found that the oil price volatility can obviously exaggerate the country risk volatility, as it happened during 2007–2009. Country clustering based on the properties of country risk ratings shows that the selected countries maintain a significant clustering tendency. These features are of great importance for estimating risk exposure of international trade and investments in oil export during extreme situations. - Highlights: •Relationship between oil price volatility and country risk is the focus. •An extended model based on Cruces (2006) is proposed. •Volatility clustering and asymmetrical revision of country risk ratings is explored. •Oil price volatility can obviously exaggerate properties of country risk volatility.

  7. Low-dose-rate brachytherapy for the treatment of localised prostate cancer in men with a high risk of disease relapse.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laing, Robert; Uribe, Jennifer; Uribe-Lewis, Santiago; Money-Kyrle, Julian; Perna, Carla; Chintzoglou, Stylianos; Khaksar, Sara; Langley, Stephen E M

    2018-04-01

    To report clinical outcomes of 125 I low-dose-rate prostate brachytherapy (LDR-PB) as monotherapy or combined with androgen-deprivation therapy (ADT) and/or external beam radiotherapy (EBRT) in high-risk localised prostate cancer. Analysis of clinical outcomes from a prospective cohort of patients treated with LDR-PB alone or combined treatment in a single institution. Men with a high risk of disease relapse were identified by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) criteria or by the National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) criteria. Relapse-free survival (RFS), overall survival (OS), prostate cancer-specific survival (PCSS), and metastases-free survival (MFS), were analysed together with patient-reported symptom scores and physician-reported adverse events. The NICE and NCCN criteria identified 267 and 202 high-risk patients, respectively. NICE-defined patients had significantly lower pre-treatment PSA levels, Gleason scores LDR-PB monotherapy. At 9 years after implantation RFS was 89% and 87% in the NICE and NCCN groups, respectively (log-rank P = 0.637), and OS 93% and 94%, respectively (log-rank P = 0.481). All of the survival estimates were similar between LDR-PB monotherapy and combined therapies. Cox proportional hazards regression confirmed RFS was similar between the treatment types. Treatment-related toxicity was also similar between the treatment methods. LDR-PB is effective at controlling localised prostate cancer in patients with a high risk of disease relapse. As the present study was not randomised, it is not possible to define those patients who need the addition of ADT and/or EBRT. However, the NICE criteria appear suitable to define treatment options where patients could benefit from LDR-PB as monotherapy or combined treatment. This choice should be discussed with the patient taking into account comorbidities and presence of multiple high-risk factors. © 2018 The Authors BJU International © 2018 BJU International

  8. A new way to ask the experts: Rating radioactive waste risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kerr, R.A.

    1996-01-01

    The possible risks of a proposed nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain include the dozen or more young volcanos near by. Now some earth scientists have a new approach to evaluating hazards accounting for uncertainty at every step - 'expert elicitation.' This pulls together a panel of experts, carefully assesses the uncertainties of each of their views then mathematically combines their risk estimates along with the accompanying uncertainties. The article goes on to describe just such a panel which considered seismic hazards to Yucca Mountain, how they came to their conclusions, the arguments about the conclusions, and the future of expert elicitation in evaluating the risks of nuclear waste disposal

  9. Asymmetry and Risk Premia in the Brazilian Term Structure of Interest Rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcelo Ganem

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available The risk premium in the Brazilian term structure of interest rates is partially driven by some specific defensive behavior following past monetary decisions. Until 2008, the Brazilian Central Bank has primarily dealt with domestic and external crises by raising the short term rate to restrain capital outflows, generating a well-known asymmetry in the market’s response functions to risk aversion. Therefore, the traditional parameterization of risk based on mean and variance estimators fails to capture the market price of risk eventually assigned to higher order moments of bond returns across several maturities. In this paper we propose an arbitrage-free, discrete-time model that provides the form for a lagged endogenous regression which tests the significance and magnitude of the market price of asymmetry in the Brazilian fixed income market. The results are analyzed from a historical perspective, comparing the evolution of the price of asymmetry, the improvement of Brazil’s sovereign risk and the monetary policy conduction from 2003 to 2009.

  10. 12 CFR 615.5182 - Interest rate risk management by associations and other Farm Credit System institutions other...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Interest rate risk management by associations... OPERATIONS, AND FUNDING OPERATIONS Risk Assessment and Management § 615.5182 Interest rate risk management by... shall comply with the requirements of §§ 615.5180 and 615.5181. The interest rate risk management...

  11. Combined anticoagulation and antiplatelet therapy for high-risk patients with atrial fibrillation: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lane, D A; Raichand, S; Moore, D; Connock, M; Fry-Smith, A; Fitzmaurice, D A

    2013-07-01

    publications that reported reviews, which added no further data. There was variation in the population, types and doses of ACT and APT, definitions of outcomes, and length of follow-up between the studies. There was a paucity of directly randomised high-quality RCTs, whereas non-randomised comparisons were found to have significant confounding factors. No studies looked at the effect of ACT plus APT compared with ACT alone on vascular events in patients with AF following acute coronary syndrome (ACS) or percutaneous coronary intervention. In most studies, significant differences in event rates were not seen between the patients on combined therapy compared with those on ACT alone for outcomes such as stroke (including haemorrhagic and ischaemic strokes), rates of transient ischaemic attacks, composite end points of stroke and systemic embolism (SE), SE alone, acute myocardial infarction, mortality (vascular or all cause) or bleeding events. There was conflicting evidence regarding rates of major adverse events consisting of composite end points, although event rates were generally low. An attempt was made to identify all of the available evidence around the subject despite the dearth of directly randomised studies using a robust review methodology. There was a paucity of directly randomised evidence to undertake a meta-analysis for the merits of one technology over another. The selection criteria were kept necessarily broad with regard to the population, intervention and comparator in order to capture all relevant studies. This systematic review suggests that there is still insufficient evidence to advocate a clear benefit of the addition of APT to ACT compared with ACT alone in reducing the risk of vascular events in a population of patients at high risk of TEs resulting from AF. It is recommended that a definitive prospective RCT needs to be undertaken in a population at high risk of atherosclerotic coronary artery and other vascular events in addition to being at high risk

  12. Timed up and go test combined with self-rated multifactorial questionnaire on falls risk and sociodemographic factors predicts falls among community-dwelling older adults better than the timed up and go test on its own.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ibrahim, Azianah; Singh, Devinder Kaur Ajit; Shahar, Suzana; Omar, Mohd Azahadi

    2017-01-01

    Early detection of falls risk among older adults using simple tools may assist in fall prevention strategies. The aim of this study was to identify the best parameters associated with previous falls, either the timed up and go (TUG) test combined with sociodemographic factors and a self-rated multifactorial questionnaire (SRMQ) on falls risk or the TUG on its own. Falls risk was determined based on parameters associated with previous falls. This was a retrospective cohort study. The study was conducted in a community setting. The participants were 1,086 community-dwelling older adults, with mean age of 69.6±5.6 years. Participants were categorized into fallers and nonfallers based on their history of falls in the past 12 months. Participants' sociodemographic data was taken, and SRMQ consisting of five falls-related questions was administered. Participants performed the TUG test twice, and the mean was taken as the result. A total of 161 participants were categorized as fallers (14.8%). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that the model ( χ 2 (6)=61.0, p factors (gender, cataract/glaucoma and joint pain), as well as the SRMQ items "previous falls history" (Q1) and "worried of falls" (Q5), was more robust in terms of falls risk association compared to that with TUG on its own ( χ 2 (1)=10.3, p factors and SRMQ with TUG is more favorable as an initial falls risk screening tool among community-dwelling older adults. Subsequently, further comprehensive falls risk assessment may be performed in clinical settings to identify the specific impairments for effective management.

  13. Combining ungrouped and grouped wildfire data to estimate fire risk

    KAUST Repository

    Hernandez-Magallanes, I.

    2013-10-11

    © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Frequently, models are required to combine information obtained from different data sources and on different scales. In this work, we are interested in estimating the risk of wildfire ignition in the USA for a particular time and location by merging two levels of data, namely, individual points and aggregate count of points into areas. The data for federal lands consist of the point location and time of each fire. Nonfederal fires are aggregated by county for a particular year. The probability model is based on the wildfire point process. Assuming a smooth intensity function, a locally weighted likelihood fit is used, which incorporates the group effect. A logit model is used under the assumption of the existence of a latent process, and fuel conditions are included as a covariate. The model assessment is based on a residual analysis, while the False Discovery Rate detects spatial patterns. A benefit of the proposed model is that there is no need of arbitrary aggregation of individual fires into counts. A map of predicted probability of ignition for the Midwest US in 1990 is included. The predicted ignition probabilities and the estimated total number of expected fires are required for the allocation of resources.

  14. Kill rate of mastitis pathogens by a combination of cefalexin and kanamycin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maneke, E; Pridmore, A; Goby, L; Lang, I

    2011-01-01

    To assess the bacterial killing rate produced by a combination of cefalexin and kanamycin at two different concentration ratios. Time-kill kinetics of cefalexin and kanamycin, individually and in combination, were determined against one strain each of Escherichia coli, Staphylococcus aureus, Streptococcus agalactiae, Streptococcus dysgalactiae and Streptococcus uberis. The combination was tested using two fixed ratios (cefalexin : kanamycin ratios of 1·25 : 1 and 1 : 2·3) and two concentrations of each ratio. Time-kill curves produced with either ratio were quite similar. Against most bacterial species, higher concentrations produced faster kill. In all cases, the combination of cefalexin and kanamycin showed faster and greater kill at lower antibiotic concentrations than those observed with either drug alone. The combination of cefalexin and kanamycin results in a fast initial killing of major mastitis pathogens at both concentration ratios. The combination of cefalexin and kanamycin achieved rapid bacterial kill at concentrations and ratios that can be achieved in vivo following intramammary infusion of a mastitis treatment. © 2010 Boehringer Ingelheim Vetmedica GmbH. Journal of Applied Microbiology © 2010 The Society for Applied Microbiology.

  15. 78 FR 78063 - Appendix 4 to Draft Qualitative Risk Assessment of Risk of Activity/Food Combinations for...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-12-24

    ... small or very small businesses that are engaged only in specific types of on-farm food production... Vol. 78 Tuesday, No. 247 December 24, 2013 Part IV Department of Health and Human Services Food... Risk of Activity/ Food Combinations for Activities (Outside the Farm Definition) Conducted in a...

  16. Combining quantitative and qualitative breast density measures to assess breast cancer risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerlikowske, Karla; Ma, Lin; Scott, Christopher G; Mahmoudzadeh, Amir P; Jensen, Matthew R; Sprague, Brian L; Henderson, Louise M; Pankratz, V Shane; Cummings, Steven R; Miglioretti, Diana L; Vachon, Celine M; Shepherd, John A

    2017-08-22

    Accurately identifying women with dense breasts (Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System [BI-RADS] heterogeneously or extremely dense) who are at high breast cancer risk will facilitate discussions of supplemental imaging and primary prevention. We examined the independent contribution of dense breast volume and BI-RADS breast density to predict invasive breast cancer and whether dense breast volume combined with Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (BCSC) risk model factors (age, race/ethnicity, family history of breast cancer, history of breast biopsy, and BI-RADS breast density) improves identifying women with dense breasts at high breast cancer risk. We conducted a case-control study of 1720 women with invasive cancer and 3686 control subjects. We calculated ORs and 95% CIs for the effect of BI-RADS breast density and Volpara™ automated dense breast volume on invasive cancer risk, adjusting for other BCSC risk model factors plus body mass index (BMI), and we compared C-statistics between models. We calculated BCSC 5-year breast cancer risk, incorporating the adjusted ORs associated with dense breast volume. Compared with women with BI-RADS scattered fibroglandular densities and second-quartile dense breast volume, women with BI-RADS extremely dense breasts and third- or fourth-quartile dense breast volume (75% of women with extremely dense breasts) had high breast cancer risk (OR 2.87, 95% CI 1.84-4.47, and OR 2.56, 95% CI 1.87-3.52, respectively), whereas women with extremely dense breasts and first- or second-quartile dense breast volume were not at significantly increased breast cancer risk (OR 1.53, 95% CI 0.75-3.09, and OR 1.50, 95% CI 0.82-2.73, respectively). Adding continuous dense breast volume to a model with BCSC risk model factors and BMI increased discriminatory accuracy compared with a model with only BCSC risk model factors (C-statistic 0.639, 95% CI 0.623-0.654, vs. C-statistic 0.614, 95% CI 0.598-0.630, respectively; P breasts and fourth

  17. Inappropriate use of payment weights to risk adjust readmission rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuller, Richard L; Goldfield, Norbert I; Averill, Richard F; Hughes, John S

    2012-01-01

    In this article, the authors demonstrate that the use of relative weights, as incorporated within the National Quality Forum-endorsed PacifiCare readmission measure, is inappropriate for risk adjusting rates of hospital readmission.

  18. Stochastic Discount Factor Approach to International Risk-Sharing: Evidence from Fixed Exchange Rate Episodes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hadzi-Vaskov, M.; Kool, C.J.M.

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents evidence of the stochastic discount factor approach to international risk-sharing applied to fixed exchange rate regimes. We calculate risk-sharing indices for two episodes of fixed or very rigid exchange rates: the Eurozone before and after the introduction of the Euro, and

  19. BCG vaccination in patients with severe combined immunodeficiency: complications, risks, and vaccination policies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marciano, Beatriz E; Huang, Chiung-Yu; Joshi, Gyan; Rezaei, Nima; Carvalho, Beatriz Costa; Allwood, Zoe; Ikinciogullari, Aydan; Reda, Shereen M; Gennery, Andrew; Thon, Vojtech; Espinosa-Rosales, Francisco; Al-Herz, Waleed; Porras, Oscar; Shcherbina, Anna; Szaflarska, Anna; Kiliç, Şebnem; Franco, Jose L; Gómez Raccio, Andrea C; Roxo, Persio; Esteves, Isabel; Galal, Nermeen; Grumach, Anete Sevciovic; Al-Tamemi, Salem; Yildiran, Alisan; Orellana, Julio C; Yamada, Masafumi; Morio, Tomohiro; Liberatore, Diana; Ohtsuka, Yoshitoshi; Lau, Yu-Lung; Nishikomori, Ryuta; Torres-Lozano, Carlos; Mazzucchelli, Juliana T L; Vilela, Maria M S; Tavares, Fabiola S; Cunha, Luciana; Pinto, Jorge A; Espinosa-Padilla, Sara E; Hernandez-Nieto, Leticia; Elfeky, Reem A; Ariga, Tadashi; Toshio, Heike; Dogu, Figen; Cipe, Funda; Formankova, Renata; Nuñez-Nuñez, M Enriqueta; Bezrodnik, Liliana; Marques, Jose Gonçalo; Pereira, María I; Listello, Viviana; Slatter, Mary A; Nademi, Zohreh; Kowalczyk, Danuta; Fleisher, Thomas A; Davies, Graham; Neven, Bénédicte; Rosenzweig, Sergio D

    2014-04-01

    Severe combined immunodeficiency (SCID) is a syndrome characterized by profound T-cell deficiency. BCG vaccine is contraindicated in patients with SCID. Because most countries encourage BCG vaccination at birth, a high percentage of patients with SCID are vaccinated before their immune defect is detected. We sought to describe the complications and risks associated with BCG vaccination in patients with SCID. An extensive standardized questionnaire evaluating complications, therapeutics, and outcomes regarding BCG vaccination in patients given a diagnosis of SCID was widely distributed. Summary statistics and association analysis was performed. Data on 349 BCG-vaccinated patients with SCID from 28 centers in 17 countries were analyzed. Fifty-one percent of the patients had BCG-associated complications, 34% disseminated and 17% localized (a 33,000- and 400-fold increase, respectively, over the general population). Patients receiving early vaccination (≤1 month) showed an increased prevalence of complications (P = .006) and death caused by BCG-associated complications (P vaccine has a very high rate of complications in patients with SCID, which increase morbidity and mortality rates. Until safer and more efficient antituberculosis vaccines become available, delay in BCG vaccination should be considered to protect highly vulnerable populations from preventable complications. Published by Mosby, Inc.

  20. A combined usage of stochastic and quantitative risk assessment methods in the worksites: Application on an electric power provider

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marhavilas, P.K.; Koulouriotis, D.E.

    2012-01-01

    An individual method cannot build either a realistic forecasting model or a risk assessment process in the worksites, and future perspectives should focus on the combined forecasting/estimation approach. The main purpose of this paper is to gain insight into a risk prediction and estimation methodological framework, using the combination of three different methods, including the proportional quantitative-risk-assessment technique (PRAT), the time-series stochastic process (TSP), and the method of estimating the societal-risk (SRE) by F–N curves. In order to prove the usefulness of the combined usage of stochastic and quantitative risk assessment methods, an application on an electric power provider industry is presented to, using empirical data.

  1. Combined results on b-hadron production rates, lifetimes, oscillations and semileptonic decays

    CERN Document Server

    Abbaneo, D.; Andreev, V.; Barberio, E.; Battaglia, M.; Blyth, S.; Boix, G.; Bourdarios, C.; Calvi, M.; Checchia, P.; Coyle, P.; Di Ciaccio, L.; Gagnon, P.; Hawkings, R.; Hayes, O.; Henrard, P.; Hessing, T.; Jimack, M.; Kroll, I.J.; Leroy, O.; Lucchesi, D.; Margoni, M.; Mele, S.; Moser, H.G.; Muheim, F.; Palla, F.; Pallin, D.; Parodi, F.; Paulini, M.; Piotto, E.; Privitera, P.; Rosnet, P.; Roudeau, P.; Rousseau, D.; Schneider, O.; Schwick, C.; Shepherd-Themistocleous, C.; Simonetto, F.; Spagnolo, P.; Stocchi, A.; Su, D.; Usher, T.; Weiser, C.; Wells, P.; Wicklund, B.; Willocq, Stephane

    2000-01-01

    Combined results on b-hadron lifetimes, b-hadron production rates, B&0_d - Bbar^0_d and B^0_s - Bbar^0_s oscillations, the decay width difference between the mass eigenstates of the B^s0_s - Bbar^0_s system, and the values of the CKM

  2. When Combined with Chemotherapy, Bevacizumab Is Associated with Increased Risk of Death

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cancer patients who receive the targeted therapy bevacizumab (Avastin) in combination with chemotherapy are at increased risk of serious side effects that may lead to death, according to a meta-analysis of 16 clinical trials that was published February 2,

  3. Probability problems in seismic risk analysis and load combinations for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    George, L.L.

    1983-01-01

    This workshop describes some probability problems in power plant reliability and maintenance analysis. The problems are seismic risk analysis, loss of load probability, load combinations, and load sharing. The seismic risk problem is to compute power plant reliability given an earthquake and the resulting risk. Component survival occurs if its peak random response to the earthquake does not exceed its strength. Power plant survival is a complicated Boolean function of component failures and survivals. The responses and strengths of components are dependent random processes, and the peak responses are maxima of random processes. The resulting risk is the expected cost of power plant failure

  4. Combined hormonal contraception and risk of venous thromboembolism within the first year following pregnancy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Jesper Friis; Bergholt, T; Nielsen, A. K.

    2014-01-01

    Estimating the risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE) associated with combined hormonal contraceptives following early terminated pregnancies or birth, a Danish nationwide retrospective cohort observing a one-year follow-up was defined using three unique registries. All Danish women with confirmed...... pregnancies aged 15-49 during the period of 1995-2009 were included. The main outcomes were relative and absolute risks of first time venous thromboembolism in users as well as non-users of combined hormonal contraceptives. In 985,569 person-years, 598 venous thromboembolisms were recorded. After early...... terminated pregnancies and births, respectively, 113 and 485 events occurred in 212,552 and 773,017 person-years. After early terminated pregnancies, the crude VTE incidence ratios were similar, and the numbers needed to harm were equal between groups that did or did not use combined hormonal contraceptives...

  5. Combination COX-2 inhibitor and metformin attenuate rate of joint replacement in osteoarthritis with diabetes: A nationwide, retrospective, matched-cohort study in Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Chieh-Hua; Chung, Chi-Hsiang; Lee, Chien-Hsing; Hsieh, Chang-Hsun; Hung, Yi-Jen; Lin, Fu-Huang; Tsao, Chang-Huei; Hsieh, Po-Shiuan; Chien, Wu-Chien

    2018-01-01

    Osteoarthritis (OA) is the most common form of arthritis associated with an increased prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), however their impact on decreasing joint replacement surgery has yet to be elucidated. This study aimed to investigate if the combination of COX-2 inhibitor and metformin therapy in OA with T2DM were associated with lower the rate of joint replacement surgery than COX-2 inhibitor alone. In total, 968 subjects with OA and T2DM under COX-2 inhibitor and metformin therapy (case group) between 1 January to 31 December 2000 were selected from the National Health Insurance Research Database of Taiwan, along with 1936 patients were the 1:2 gender-, age-, and index year-controls matched without metformin therapy (control group) in this study. Cox proportional hazards analysis was used to compare the rate of receiving joint replacement surgery during 10 years of follow-up. At the end of follow-up, 438 of all enrolled subjects (15.08%) had received the joint replacement surgery, including 124 in the case group (12.81%) and 314 in the control group (16.22%). The case group tended to be associated with lower rate of receiving the joint replacement surgery at the end of follow-up than the control group (p = 0.003). Cox proportional hazards regression (HR) analysis revealed that study subjects under combination therapy with metformin had lower rate of joint replacement surgery (adjusted HR 0.742 (95% CI = 0.601-0.915, p = 0.005)). In the subgroups, study subjects in the combination metformin therapy who were female, good adherence (>80%), lived in the highest urbanization levels of residence, treatment in the hospital center and lower monthly insurance premiums were associated with a lower risk of joint replacement surgery than those without. Patients who have OA and T2DM receiving combination COX-2 inhibitors and metformin therapy associated with lower joint replacement surgery rates than those without and this may be attributable to combination

  6. Management of Combined Natural Risks - A New Approach: Keynote Address

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanisch, Jörg

    A new attempt is made to illustrate and to quantify the relationships of individual natural hazards, their combinations and the human vulnerability to natural hazards. During many catastrophic events, combinations of different natural events aggravate their occurrence substantially. Earthquakes are frequently associated with heavy landsliding (El Salvador 2001) and heavy rainstorms are able to trigger fast running debris flows and not only floods (like during the Mitch disaster in Central America in 1998). That signifies that natural hazard maps should show the combinations of different hazards and their genetic relationships. To put into effect this, first, the individual hazards have to be assessed and presented in hazard zones (0 to 3). Then these hazards zones will be overlain using GIS techniques. In this way, e.g., an earthquake-prone area which coincides with an area susceptible to landslides (ranking 0 to 3 as well) can show hazard concentrations of up to a value of 6, simply adding the individual hazard zones. To get the result of the corresponding risk zones, the vulnerability maps of human settlements and infra-structure have to be overlain on the maps of these combinations of natural hazards.

  7. Construction schedule delay risk assessment by using combined AHP-RII methodology for an international NPP project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammed Mufazzal Hossen

    2015-04-01

    The proposed combined AHP-RII methodology is capable of assessing delay risk effectively and efficiently. Decision makers can apply risk informed decision making to avoid unexpected construction delays of NPPs.

  8. Comparison of Rates of Nephrotoxicity Associated with Vancomycin in Combination with Piperacillin-Tazobactam Administered as an Extended versus Standard Infusion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mousavi, Mariam; Zapolskaya, Tanya; Scipione, Marco R; Louie, Eddie; Papadopoulos, John; Dubrovskaya, Yanina

    2017-03-01

    Despite recent reports of relatively high rates (16-37%) of acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients receiving the combination of intravenous piperacillin-tazobactam (PTZ) and vancomycin, data are limited evaluating the impact of PTZ infusion strategy on the occurrence of nephrotoxicity. The objective of this study was to compare the rates of nephrotoxicity in patients receiving vancomycin in combination with PTZ administered as an extended infusion (EI) versus a standard infusion (SI). Single-center, retrospective, matched-cohort study. Large academic tertiary care hospital. Two hundred eighty adults with a creatinine clearance (CrCl) of 40 ml/minute or higher who received at least 96 hours of vancomycin plus PTZ EI (140 patients) or vancomycin plus PTZ SI (140 patients) between January 1, 2009, and December 31, 2011, and between January 1, 2013, and December 31, 2014 (year 2012 was skipped due the closure of inpatient units following Superstorm Sandy); 48 patients in each group were admitted to the intensive care unit. The median age of all patients was 67 (interquartile range [IQR] 54-77) years, and CrCl was 75 (IQR 55-107) ml/minute. Nephrotoxicity was assessed by the risk, injury, failure, loss, and end-stage kidney disease (RIFLE) and Acute Kidney Injury Network (AKIN) criteria. Rates of AKI, according to these criteria, were similar between groups: 17.9% versus 17.1% (p=1) and 32.9% versus 29.3% (p=0.596) for the PTZ EI and PTZ SI groups, respectively. When controlling for residual differences between groups in a conditional logistic regression analysis, no association was observed between receipt of PTZ EI and RIFLE-defined AKI (odds ratio 0.522, 95% confidence interval 0.043-6.295, p=0.609). Time to onset of nephrotoxicity was 4 (IQR 3-6) days, with no significant difference noted between groups (p=0.887). Our findings suggest a similar rate of nephrotoxicity between patients who received vancomycin in combination with PTZ EI versus PTZ SI. These results need

  9. 77 FR 57990 - Interest Rate Risk Policy and Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-09-19

    ... NATIONAL CREDIT UNION ADMINISTRATION 12 CFR Part 741 RIN 3133-AD66 Interest Rate Risk Policy and Program Correction In rule document 2012-02091, appearing on pages 55155-5167 in the issue of Thursday, February 2, 2012, make the following corrections: 1. On page 5157, in the second column, in the first line...

  10. A risk microbiological profile of the Australian red meat industry: risk ratings of hazard-product pairings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sumner, John; Ross, Tom; Jenson, Ian; Pointon, Andrew

    2005-11-25

    A risk profile of microbial hazards across the supply continuum for the beef, sheep and goat meat industries was developed using both a qualitative tool and a semi-quantitative, spreadsheet tool, Risk Ranger. The latter is useful for highlighting factors contributing to food safety risk and for ranking the risk of various product/pathogen combinations. In the present profile the qualitative tool was used as a preliminary screen for a wide range of hazard-product pairings while Risk Ranger was used to rank in order of population health risk pairings for which quantitative data were available and for assessing the effect of hypothetical scenarios. 'High' risk hazard-product pairings identified were meals contaminated with Clostridium perfringens provided by caterers which have not implemented HACCP; kebabs cross-contaminated by Salmonella present in drip trays or served undercooked; meals served in the home cross-contaminated with Salmonella. 'Medium' risk hazard-product pairings identified were ready-to-eat meats contaminated with Listeria monocytogenes and which have extended shelf life; Uncooked Comminuted Fermented Meat (UCFM)/Salami contaminated with Enterohaemorrhagic E. coli (EHEC) and Salmonella; undercooked hamburgers contaminated with EHEC; kebabs contaminated by Salmonella under normal production or following final "flash" heating. Identified 'low' risk hazard-product pairings included cooked, ready-to-eat sausages contaminated with Salmonella; UCFM/Salami contaminated with L. monocytogenes; well-cooked hamburgers contaminated with EHEC. The risk profile provides information of value to Australia's risk managers in the regulatory, processing and R&D sectors of the meat and meat processing industry for the purposes of identifying food safety risks in the industry and for prioritising risk management actions.

  11. Optimal combined purchasing strategies for a risk-averse manufacturer under price uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qiao Wu

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of our paper is to analyze optimal purchasing strategies when a manufacturer can buy raw materials from a long-term contract supplier and a spot market under spot price uncertainty. Design/methodology/approach: This procurement model can be solved by using dynamic programming. First, we maximize the DM’s utility of the second period, obtaining the optimal contract quantity and spot quantity for the second period. Then, maximize the DM’s utility of both periods, obtaining the optimal purchasing strategy for the first period. We use a numerical method to compare the performance level of a pure spot sourcing strategy with that of a mixed strategy. Findings: Our results show that optimal purchasing strategies vary with the trend of contract prices. If the contract price falls, the total quantity purchased in period 1 will decrease in the degree of risk aversion. If the contract price increases, the total quantity purchased in period 1 will increase in the degree of risk aversion. The relationship between the optimal contract quantity and the degree of risk aversion depends on whether the expected spot price or the contract price is larger in period 2. Finally, we compare the performance levels between a combined strategy and a spot sourcing strategy. It shows that a combined strategy is optimal for a risk-averse buyer. Originality/value: It’s challenging to deal with a two-period procurement problem with risk consideration. We have obtained results of a two-period procurement problem with two sourcing options, namely contract procurement and spot purchases. Our model incorporates the buyer’s risk aversion factor and the change of contract prices, which are not addressed in early studies.

  12. Association of suicide rates, gun ownership, conservatism and individual suicide risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kposowa, Augustine J

    2013-09-01

    The purpose of the study was to examine the association of suicide rates, firearm ownership, political conservatism, religious integration at the state level, and individual suicide risk. Social structural and social learning and social integration theories were theoretical frameworks employed. It was hypothesized that higher suicide rates, higher state firearm availability, and state conservatism elevate individual suicide risk. Data were pooled from the Multiple Cause of Death Files. Multilevel logistic regression models were fitted to all deaths occurring in 2000 through 2004 by suicide. The state suicide rate significantly elevated individual suicide risk (AOR = 1.042, CI = 1.037, 1.046). Firearm availability at the state level was associated with significantly higher odds of individual suicide (AOR = 1.004, CI = 1.003, 1.006). State political conservatism elevated the odds of individual suicides (AOR = 1.005, CI = 1.003, 1.007), while church membership at the state level reduced individual odds of suicide (AOR = 0.995, CI = 0.993, 0.996). The results held even after controlling for socioeconomic and demographic variables at the individual level. It was concluded that the observed association between individual suicide odds and national suicide rates, and firearm ownership cannot be discounted. Future research ought to focus on integrating individual level data and contextual variables when testing for the impact of firearm ownership. Support was found for social learning and social integration theories.

  13. The association between household poverty rates and tuberculosis case notification rates in Cambodia, 2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mao Yang Eang

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Poverty is a risk factor for tuberculosis (TB; it increases the risk of infection and active disease but limits diagnostic opportunities. The role of poverty in the stagnant case detection in Cambodia is unclear. This study aims to assess the relationship between district household poverty rates and sputum-positive TB case notification rates (CNRs in Cambodia in 2010. Methods: Poisson regression models were used to calculate the relative risk of new sputum-positive TB CNR for Operational Districts (ODs with different poverty rates using data from the National Centre for Tuberculosis and Leprosy Control and the National Committee for SubNational Democratic Development. Models were adjusted for other major covariates and a geographical information system was used to examine the spatial distribution of these covariates in the country. Results: The univariate model showed a positive association between household poverty rates and sputum-positive TB CNRs. However, in multivariate models, after adjusting for major covariates, household poverty rates showed a significantly negative association with sputum-positive TB CNRs (relative risk [RR] = 0.95 per 5% increase in poverty rate. The negative association was stronger among males than females (RR = 0.93 versus 0.96 per 5% increase in poverty rate. Similar spatial patterns were observed between household poverty rates and other covariates, particularly OD population density. Conclusion: Household poverty rate is associated with a decrease in sputum-positive TB CNR in Cambodia, particularly in men. The potential of combining surveillance data and socioeconomic variables should be explored further to provide more insights for TB control programme planning.

  14. Community rating in the absence of risk equalisation: lessons from the Irish private health insurance market.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, Brian; Shinnick, Edward

    2013-04-01

    Ireland's private health insurance market operates on the basis of community rating, alongside open enrolment and lifetime cover. A risk equalisation scheme was introduced in 2003 to bolster community rating. However, in July 2008 the Irish Supreme Court set aside this scheme, on the basis of the interpretation of community rating in Irish legislation. This decision has significant implications for the Irish private health insurance market. This paper reviews the development of the market, focusing in particular on community rating. The breakdown of community rating in a market with multiple insurers with differing risk profiles is discussed. Applying this to the Irish market, it can be seen that the Irish Supreme Court judgment has significant implications for the application of community rating. Specifically, while community rating operates within plans, it no longer operates across the market, leading to high-risk lives paying more, on average, than low-risk lives. It has also led to greater opportunities for insurers to engage in market segmentation. This may have relevance for the design and operation of other community rated markets.

  15. A statistical modeling approach to build expert credit risk rating systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Waagepetersen, Rasmus

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents an efficient method for extracting expert knowledge when building a credit risk rating system. Experts are asked to rate a sample of counterparty cases according to creditworthiness. Next, a statistical model is used to capture the relation between the characteristics...... of a counterparty and the expert rating. For any counterparty the model can identify the rating, which would be agreed upon by the majority of experts. Furthermore, the model can quantify the concurrence among experts. The approach is illustrated by a case study regarding the construction of an application score...

  16. Loss distribution approach for operational risk capital modelling under Basel II: Combining different data sources for risk estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pavel V. Shevchenko

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The management of operational risk in the banking industry has undergone significant changes over the last decade due to substantial changes in operational risk environment. Globalization, deregulation, the use of complex financial products and changes in information technology have resulted in exposure to new risks very different from market and credit risks. In response, Basel Committee for banking Supervision has developed a regulatory framework, referred to as Basel II, that introduced operational risk category and corresponding capital requirements. Over the past five years, major banks in most parts of the world have received accreditation under the Basel II Advanced Measurement Approach (AMA by adopting the loss distribution approach (LDA despite there being a number of unresolved methodological challenges in its implementation. Different approaches and methods are still under hot debate. In this paper, we review methods proposed in the literature for combining different data sources (internal data, external data and scenario analysis which is one of the regulatory requirement for AMA.

  17. Relative and absolute risk in epidemiology and health physics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goldsmith, R.; Peterson, H.T. Jr.

    1983-01-01

    The health risk from ionizing radiation commonly is expressed in two forms: (1) the relative risk, which is the percentage increase in natural disease rate and (2) the absolute or attributable risk which represents the difference between the natural rate and the rate associated with the agent in question. Relative risk estimates for ionizing radiation generally are higher than those expressed as the absolute risk. This raises the question of which risk estimator is the most appropriate under different conditions. The absolute risk has generally been used for radiation risk assessment, although mathematical combinations such as the arithmetic or geometric mean of both the absolute and relative risks, have also been used. Combinations of the two risk estimators are not valid because the absolute and relative risk are not independent variables. Both human epidemiologic studies and animal experimental data can be found to illustrate the functional relationship between the natural cancer risk and the risk associated with radiation. This implies that the radiation risk estimate derived from one population may not be appropriate for predictions in another population, unless it is adjusted for the difference in the natural disease incidence between the two populations

  18. Management Methods by Development of Objects of Energy Supply Taking into Account the Combined Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kirillova Ariadna

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In the article the methods of choice of optimal administrative decisions are examined on the development of objects energy supplies of housing and communal services. That would take into account nascent risks related to investment-building activity of energy supplying enterprises. It is shown that the basic condition of housing and utilities on an energy supply is the building of objects with a subsequent production, distribution and realization of electric energy, that allows at their reproduction to provide quality and reliability of energy supply to the consumers. Also the questions of decline of risks and exposure of factors, influencing on the processes of management development of objects of energy supply in the field of housing and utilities, estimation of organizationally-economic reliability and combined risks, estimation of possibility of the use of innovative energy technologies, alternative sources of energy supply, are investigated in the article. It is fixed, that risk indexes must be appraised not only on the investment stage of building object, but also on his operating stage (after commissioning on the basis of account of the great number of risks characterizing the combined risk.

  19. Basal metabolic rate and risk-taking behaviour in birds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Møller, A P

    2009-12-01

    Basal metabolic rate (BMR) constitutes the minimal metabolic rate in the zone of thermo-neutrality, where heat production is not elevated for temperature regulation. BMR thus constitutes the minimum metabolic rate that is required for maintenance. Interspecific variation in BMR in birds is correlated with food habits, climate, habitat, flight activity, torpor, altitude, and migration, although the selective forces involved in the evolution of these presumed adaptations are not always obvious. I suggest that BMR constitutes the minimum level required for maintenance, and that variation in this minimum level reflects the fitness costs and benefits in terms of ability to respond to selective agents like predators, implying that an elevated level of BMR is a cost of wariness towards predators. This hypothesis predicts a positive relationship between BMR and measures of risk taking such as flight initiation distance (FID) of individuals approached by a potential predator. Consistent with this suggestion, I show in a comparative analysis of 76 bird species that species with higher BMR for their body mass have longer FID when approached by a potential predator. This effect was independent of potentially confounding variables and similarity among species due to common phylogenetic descent. These results imply that BMR is positively related to risk-taking behaviour, and that predation constitutes a neglected factor in the evolution of BMR.

  20. Multifractality and value-at-risk forecasting of exchange rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Batten, Jonathan A.; Kinateder, Harald; Wagner, Niklas

    2014-05-01

    This paper addresses market risk prediction for high frequency foreign exchange rates under nonlinear risk scaling behaviour. We use a modified version of the multifractal model of asset returns (MMAR) where trading time is represented by the series of volume ticks. Our dataset consists of 138,418 5-min round-the-clock observations of EUR/USD spot quotes and trading ticks during the period January 5, 2006 to December 31, 2007. Considering fat-tails, long-range dependence as well as scale inconsistency with the MMAR, we derive out-of-sample value-at-risk (VaR) forecasts and compare our approach to historical simulation as well as a benchmark GARCH(1,1) location-scale VaR model. Our findings underline that the multifractal properties in EUR/USD returns in fact have notable risk management implications. The MMAR approach is a parsimonious model which produces admissible VaR forecasts at the 12-h forecast horizon. For the daily horizon, the MMAR outperforms both alternatives based on conditional as well as unconditional coverage statistics.

  1. Strongly enhanced colorectal cancer risk stratification by combining family history and genetic risk score

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Weigl K

    2018-01-01

    joint consideration provided more accurate risk stratification than risk stratification based on each of the variables individually. For example, risk was 6.1-fold increased in the presence of both FH in a FDR and a GRS in the highest decile (aOR 6.14, 95% CI 3.47–10.84 compared to persons without FH and a GRS in the lowest decile.Conclusion: Both FH and the so far identified genetic variants carry essentially independent risk information and in combination provide great potential for CRC risk stratification. Keywords: colorectal neoplasms, familial risk, common genetic variants, single-nucleotide polymorphisms

  2. Determinants of Complications and Outcome in High-Risk Squamous Cell Head-and-Neck Cancer Treated With Perioperative High-Dose Rate Brachytherapy (PHDRB)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martinez-Monge, Rafael, E-mail: rmartinezm@unav.es [Department of Oncology, Clinica Universitaria de Navarra, Pamplona (Spain); Pagola Divasson, Maria; Cambeiro, Mauricio; Gaztanaga, Miren; Moreno, Marta; Arbea, Leire [Department of Oncology, Clinica Universitaria de Navarra, Pamplona (Spain); Montesdeoca, Nestor [Department of Maxillofacial Surgery, Clinica Universitaria de Navarra, Pamplona (Spain); Alcalde, Juan [Department of Otolaryngology, Clinica Universitaria de Navarra, Pamplona (Spain)

    2011-11-15

    Purpose: To determine the impact of a set of patient, tumor, and treatment factors on toxicity and outcome in patients with head-and-neck squamous cell cancer treated with surgical resection and perioperative high-dose rate brachytherapy (PHDRB) alone (single-modality [SM] group) (n = 46) or PHDRB combined with postoperative radiation or chemoradiation (combined-modality [CM] group) (n = 57). Methods and Materials: From 2000 to 2008, 103 patients received PHDRB after complete macroscopic resection. SM patients received 32 or 40 Gy of PHDRB in 8 or 10 twice-daily treatments for R0 and R1 resections. CM patients received 16 or 24 Gy of PHDRB in 4 or 6 twice-daily treatments for R0 and R1 resections, followed by external radiation of 45 Gy in 25 fractions with or without concomitant chemotherapy. Results: Grade {>=}4 complications according to the Radiation Therapy Oncology Group were more frequent in the SM group than in the CM group (p = 0.024). Grade {>=}3 and {>=}4 complications increased with the antecedent of prior irradiation (p = 0.032 and p = 0.006, respectively) and with TV{sub 150} values of 13 mL or greater (p = 0.032 and p = 0.032, respectively). After a median follow-up of 34.8 and 60.8 months for SM and CM patients, respectively, patients with high-risk margins had a 9-year local control rate of 68.0% whereas patients with wider margins had a 9-year local control of 93.7% (p = 0.045). Patients with primary and recurrent tumors had 9-year actuarial locoregional control rates of 81.8% and 54.2%, respectively (p = 0.003). Patients with lymph-vascular space invasion (LVSI)-positive and LVSI-negative tumors had 9-year distant control rates of 62.8% and 81.6%, respectively (p = 0.034). Disease-free survival rates decreased in recurrent cases (p = 0.006) as well as in LVSI-positive patients (p = 0.035). Conclusions: The complications observed are largely attributable to the antecedent of prior irradiation but can possibly be minimized by meticulous mapping and

  3. Combined exercise reduces arterial stiffness, blood pressure, and blood markers for cardiovascular risk in postmenopausal women with hypertension.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Son, Won-Mok; Sung, Ki-Dong; Cho, Jae-Min; Park, Song-Young

    2017-03-01

    Postmenopausal women exhibit elevated brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity (baPWV), an indicator of arterial stiffness, which is associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular events and mortality. The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of combined resistance and aerobic exercise training on baPWV, blood pressure (BP), and cardiovascular fitness in postmenopausal women with stage 1 hypertension. Twenty postmenopausal women (age, 75 ± 2 y; systolic BP, 152 ± 2 mm Hg, diastolic BP, 95 ± 3 mm Hg) were randomly assigned to a "no-exercise" (CON, n = 10) or combined exercise (EX, n = 10) group. The EX group performed resistance and aerobic exercise for 12 weeks, 3 times per week. Exercise intensity was increased gradually, from 40% to 70% of heart rate reserve, every 4 weeks. BaPWV, BP, blood nitrite/nitrate, endothelin-1 (ET-1), cardiovascular fitness, and body composition were measured before and after the 12-week intervention. BP, baPWV (-1.2 ± 0.4 m/s), ET-1 (-2.7 ± 0.3 μmol/mL), nitrite/nitrate (+4.5 ± 0.5 μM), functional capacity, and body composition were significantly improved (P exercise training improves arterial stiffness, BP, ET-1, blood nitrite/nitrate, functional capacity, and body composition in postmenopausal women with stage 1 hypertension. Thus, this study provides evidence that combined exercise training is a useful therapeutic method to improve cardiovascular health which can reduce cardiovascular disease risk in postmenopausal women with hypertension.

  4. [Injury rate and incidence of accidents with biological risk among infirmary students].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez Martín, A; Novalbos Ruiz, J P; Costa Alonso, M J; Zafra Mezcua, J A

    2000-09-09

    A study of the incidence and characteristics of biological accidents among infirmary students during their practicals at the hospital. A retrospective study carried out at five centres by means of two questionnaires, one on the duration of the training and the rate of accidents and the other on the characteristics, precautions and ports exposure behaviour. Out of 397 students, 70,5% had accidents at a rate of 64% (CI 95%, 59-68). Of these, 15% were accidents with biological risk, the majority being jabs (39%) and splashes (32,5%). It is worth note that 49,2% occurred while putting away the material and 58% in the absence of any individual protective measures. One out of 8 accidents implied a biological risk. A very high rate of accidents was observed with important deficiencies in security.

  5. PERFORMANCE EVALUATION AND RISK AVERSION RATE FOR SEVERAL STOCK INDICES IN INDONESIA STOCK EXCHANGE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robiyanto Robiyanto

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available There are numerous stock indices in Indonesia Stock Exchange. Several of them are LQ-45, MBX, DBX, JII, SRI-KEHATI, PEFINDO-25, BISNIS-27, IDX-30 and KOMPAS-100. Unfortunately there are limi­ted researches which have been done to measure those indices performance specifically. The same condition also occurs on risk aversion level usage in Indonesia Stock Exchange, only few numbers of researches use this me­a­surement in the portfolio valuation. Based on that, this research measured the performance and risk aversion rate of those indices in Indonesia Stock Exchange. The results of this study were SRI-KEHATI becomes the best performer with the highest risk aversion rate, while Jakarta Islamic Index (JII produces the lowest positive per­formance with the lowest risk aversion rate. This finding shows that sharia stocks’ characters (i.e. usury free could give relieveness and convenience regardless its per­formance.

  6. Self-perceived quality of life predicts mortality risk better than a multi-biomarker panel, but the combination of both does best

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nauck Matthias

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Associations between measures of subjective health and mortality risk have previously been shown. We assessed the impact and comparative predictive performance of a multi-biomarker panel on this association. Methods Data from 4,261 individuals aged 20-79 years recruited for the population-based Study of Health in Pomerania was used. During an average 9.7 year follow-up, 456 deaths (10.7% occurred. Subjective health was assessed by SF-12 derived physical (PCS-12 and mental component summaries (MCS-12, and a single-item self-rated health (SRH question. We implemented Cox proportional-hazards regression models to investigate the association of subjective health with mortality and to assess the impact of a combination of 10 biomarkers on this association. Variable selection procedures were used to identify a parsimonious set of subjective health measures and biomarkers, whose predictive ability was compared using receiver operating characteristic (ROC curves, C-statistics, and reclassification methods. Results In age- and gender-adjusted Cox models, poor SRH (hazard ratio (HR, 2.07; 95% CI, 1.34-3.20 and low PCS-12 scores (lowest vs. highest quartile: HR, 1.75; 95% CI, 1.31-2.33 were significantly associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality; an association independent of various covariates and biomarkers. Furthermore, selected subjective health measures yielded a significantly higher C-statistic (0.883 compared to the selected biomarker panel (0.872, whereas a combined assessment showed the highest C-statistic (0.887 with a highly significant integrated discrimination improvement of 1.5% (p Conclusion Adding biomarker information did not affect the association of subjective health measures with mortality, but significantly improved risk stratification. Thus, a combined assessment of self-reported subjective health and measured biomarkers may be useful to identify high-risk individuals for intensified monitoring.

  7. Effects of combined radiation-burn injury on survival rate of allogeneic skin grafts and immune reaction in rats

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ran Xinze; Yan Yongtang; Cheng Tianmin; Li Yuan; Wei Shuqing

    1996-01-01

    The effects of combined radiation-burn injury on survival rate of allogeneic skin grafts and immune reaction were studied in rats with combined injury of 3-8 Gy 60 Co γ-ray irradiation plus 15% total body surface area full thickness burn induced by exposure to a 5 kw bromotungsten lamp. The allogeneic skin was transplanted 24 hours after injury. It was found that all the skin grafts failed to survive in 10 days and the immune reaction significantly increased in the early stage of burn injury. But the immune reaction was obviously suppressed by the combined radiation-burn injury. The survival rates of skin grafts were 20% and 30% in the combined injury of burn plus 3 and 4 Gy irradiation respectively. When the radiation doses increased to 5,6 and 8 Gy, the survival rates elevated to 69%, 88% and 100% respectively (in the group of 8 Gy, bone marrow transplantation was conducted before receiving skin graft). At day 30 post-transplantation the survival rates were still 36%, 42% and 100% respectively. Compared with burn group, there was a significant difference in survival rate when the radiation doses were higher than 5 Gy. These results indicate that the survival rate of the allogeneic skin graft increases concurrently with the increase in radiation dose and decreases with the elapse of the post-transplantation time

  8. Long-Term Outcomes for Patients with Prostate Cancer Having Intermediate and High-Risk Disease, Treated with Combination External Beam Irradiation and Brachytherapy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Dattoli

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Perception remains that brachytherapy-based regimens are inappropriate for patients having increased risk of extracapsular extension (ECE. Methods. 321 consecutive intermediate and high-risk disease patients were treated between 1/92 and 2/97 by one author (M. Dattoli and stratified by NCCN guidelines. 157 had intermediate-risk; 164 had high-risk disease. All were treated using the combination EBRT/brachytherapy ± hormones. Biochemical failure was defined using PSA >0.2 and nadir +2 at last followup. Nonfailing patients followup was median 10.5 years. Both biochemical data and original biopsy slides were independently rereviewed at an outside institution. Results. Overall actuarial freedom from biochemical progression at 16 years was 82% (89% intermediate, 74% high-risk with failure predictors: Gleason score (=.01 and PSA (=.03. Hormonal therapy did not affect failure rates (=.14. Conclusion. This study helps to strengthen the rationale for brachytherapy-based regimens as being both durable and desirable treatment options for such patients. Prospective studies are justified to confirm these positive results.

  9. Combined Diffusion Tensor Imaging and Apparent Transverse Relaxation Rate Differentiate Parkinson Disease and Atypical Parkinsonism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, G; Lewis, M M; Kanekar, S; Sterling, N W; He, L; Kong, L; Li, R; Huang, X

    2017-05-01

    Both diffusion tensor imaging and the apparent transverse relaxation rate have shown promise in differentiating Parkinson disease from atypical parkinsonism (particularly multiple system atrophy and progressive supranuclear palsy). The objective of the study was to assess the ability of DTI, the apparent transverse relaxation rate, and their combination for differentiating Parkinson disease, multiple system atrophy, progressive supranuclear palsy, and controls. A total of 106 subjects (36 controls, 35 patients with Parkinson disease, 16 with multiple system atrophy, and 19 with progressive supranuclear palsy) were included. DTI and the apparent transverse relaxation rate measures from the striatal, midbrain, limbic, and cerebellar regions were obtained and compared among groups. The discrimination performance of DTI and the apparent transverse relaxation rate among groups was assessed by using Elastic-Net machine learning and receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. Compared with controls, patients with Parkinson disease showed significant apparent transverse relaxation rate differences in the red nucleus. Compared to those with Parkinson disease, patients with both multiple system atrophy and progressive supranuclear palsy showed more widespread changes, extending from the midbrain to striatal and cerebellar structures. The pattern of changes, however, was different between the 2 groups. For instance, patients with multiple system atrophy showed decreased fractional anisotropy and an increased apparent transverse relaxation rate in the subthalamic nucleus, whereas patients with progressive supranuclear palsy showed an increased mean diffusivity in the hippocampus. Combined, DTI and the apparent transverse relaxation rate were significantly better than DTI or the apparent transverse relaxation rate alone in separating controls from those with Parkinson disease/multiple system atrophy/progressive supranuclear palsy; controls from those with Parkinson

  10. Low-Dose-Rate Brachytherapy Versus Cryotherapy in Low- and Intermediate-Risk Prostate Cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gestaut, Matthew M.; Cai, Wendi; Vyas, Shilpa; Patel, Belur J.; Hasan, Salman A.; MunozMaldonado, Yolanda; Deb, Niloyjyoti; Swanson, Gregory

    2017-01-01

    Purpose: Cryotherapy and brachytherapy are definitive local treatment options for low- to intermediate-risk prostate cancer. There are both prospective and retrospective data for brachytherapy, but the use of cryotherapy has been limited primarily to single-institution retrospective studies. Currently, no published evidence has compared low-dose-rate brachytherapy versus cryotherapy. Methods and Materials: Institutional review board approval was obtained to conduct a retrospective chart review of consecutive patients treated at our institution from 1990 to 2012. For inclusion, patients must have received a prostate cancer diagnosis and have been considered to have low- to intermediate-risk disease according to the National Comprehensive Cancer Network criteria. All patients received brachytherapy or cryotherapy treatment. Disease specifics and failure details were collected for all patients. Failure was defined as prostate-specific antigen nadir +2 ng/mL. Results: A total of 359 patients were analyzed. The groups comprised 50 low-risk cryotherapy (LRC), 92 intermediate-risk cryotherapy (IRC), 133 low-risk brachytherapy (LRB), and 84 intermediate-risk brachytherapy (IRB) patients. The median prostate-specific antigen follow-up periods were 85.6 months (LRC), 59.2 months (IRC), 74.9 months (LRB), and 59.8 months (IRB). The 5-year biochemical progression–free survival (bPFS) rate was 57.9% in the cryotherapy group versus 89.6% in the brachytherapy group (P<.0001). The 5-year bPFS rate was 70.0% (LRC), 51.4% (IRC), 89.4% (LRB), and 89.7% (IRB). The bPFS rate was significantly different between brachytherapy and cryotherapy for low- and intermediate-risk groups (P<.05). The mean nadir temperature reached for cryotherapy patients was −35°C (range, −96°C to −6°C). Cryotherapy used a median of 2 freeze-thaw cycles (range, 2-4 freeze-thaw cycles). Conclusions: Results from this study suggest that cryotherapy is inferior to brachytherapy for patients with

  11. Low-Dose-Rate Brachytherapy Versus Cryotherapy in Low- and Intermediate-Risk Prostate Cancer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gestaut, Matthew M., E-mail: Matthew.Gestaut@BSWHealth.org [Department of Radiation Oncology, Baylor Scott and White Memorial Hospital, Texas A& M University School of Medicine, Temple, Texas (United States); Cai, Wendi [Department of Biostatistics, Baylor Scott and White Health, Temple, Texas (United States); Vyas, Shilpa [Department of Radiation Oncology, Swedish Cancer Institute, Seattle, Washington (United States); Patel, Belur J. [Department of Urology, Baylor Scott and White Memorial Hospital, Texas A& M University School of Medicine, Temple, Texas (United States); Hasan, Salman A. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Baylor Scott and White Memorial Hospital, Texas A& M University School of Medicine, Temple, Texas (United States); MunozMaldonado, Yolanda [Department of Biostatistics, Baylor Scott and White Health, Temple, Texas (United States); Deb, Niloyjyoti; Swanson, Gregory [Department of Radiation Oncology, Baylor Scott and White Memorial Hospital, Texas A& M University School of Medicine, Temple, Texas (United States)

    2017-05-01

    Purpose: Cryotherapy and brachytherapy are definitive local treatment options for low- to intermediate-risk prostate cancer. There are both prospective and retrospective data for brachytherapy, but the use of cryotherapy has been limited primarily to single-institution retrospective studies. Currently, no published evidence has compared low-dose-rate brachytherapy versus cryotherapy. Methods and Materials: Institutional review board approval was obtained to conduct a retrospective chart review of consecutive patients treated at our institution from 1990 to 2012. For inclusion, patients must have received a prostate cancer diagnosis and have been considered to have low- to intermediate-risk disease according to the National Comprehensive Cancer Network criteria. All patients received brachytherapy or cryotherapy treatment. Disease specifics and failure details were collected for all patients. Failure was defined as prostate-specific antigen nadir +2 ng/mL. Results: A total of 359 patients were analyzed. The groups comprised 50 low-risk cryotherapy (LRC), 92 intermediate-risk cryotherapy (IRC), 133 low-risk brachytherapy (LRB), and 84 intermediate-risk brachytherapy (IRB) patients. The median prostate-specific antigen follow-up periods were 85.6 months (LRC), 59.2 months (IRC), 74.9 months (LRB), and 59.8 months (IRB). The 5-year biochemical progression–free survival (bPFS) rate was 57.9% in the cryotherapy group versus 89.6% in the brachytherapy group (P<.0001). The 5-year bPFS rate was 70.0% (LRC), 51.4% (IRC), 89.4% (LRB), and 89.7% (IRB). The bPFS rate was significantly different between brachytherapy and cryotherapy for low- and intermediate-risk groups (P<.05). The mean nadir temperature reached for cryotherapy patients was −35°C (range, −96°C to −6°C). Cryotherapy used a median of 2 freeze-thaw cycles (range, 2-4 freeze-thaw cycles). Conclusions: Results from this study suggest that cryotherapy is inferior to brachytherapy for patients with

  12. Food groups for allergen risk assessment: Combining food consumption data from different countries in Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Birot, Sophie; Madsen, Charlotte Bernhard; Kruizinga, Astrid G

    2018-01-01

    To prevent allergic reactions, food producers have to be able to make a knowledge based decision on whether to label their products with precautionary labelling. As many manufactured food products are sold in different countries across Europe, the allergen risk assessment should be estimated...... at the European levels. As currently, there are no pan-European food data suitable for food allergy risk assessment. The aim of this paper is to investigate if consumption data, at a meal level, from National Food Consumption Surveys, can be combined to form a common Food Consumption database. In this first...... attempt we developed a procedure to investigate, if national food consumption data can be combined and grouped using data from Netherlands, France and Denmark. The homogeneity of consumption patterns and the relevance of difference in risk of allergic reaction were compared, using a fixed framework...

  13. Modelling Counterparty Credit Risk in Czech Interest Rate Swaps

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lenka Křivánková

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available According to the Basel Committee’s estimate, three quarters of counterparty credit risk losses during the financial crisis in 2008 originate from credit valuation adjustment’s losses and not from actual defaults. Therefore, from 2015, the Third Basel Accord (EU, 2013a and (EU, 2013b instructed banks to calculate the capital requirement for the risk of credit valuation adjustment (CVA. Banks are trying to model CVA to hold the prescribed standards and also reach the lowest possible impact on their profit. In this paper, we try to model CVA using methods that are in compliance with the prescribed standards and also achieve the smallest possible impact on the bank’s earnings. To do so, a data set of interest rate swaps from 2015 is used. The interest rate term structure is simulated using the Hull-White one-factor model and Monte Carlo methods. Then, the probability of default for each counterparty is constructed. A safe level of CVA is reached in spite of the calculated the CVA achieving a lower level than CVA previously used by the bank. This allows a reduction of capital requirements for banks.

  14. Combining Primary Prevention and Risk Reduction Approaches in Sexual Assault Protection Programming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menning, Chadwick; Holtzman, Mellisa

    2015-01-01

    Objective: The object of this study is to extend prior evaluations of Elemental, a sexual assault protection program that combines primary prevention and risk reduction strategies within a single program. Participants and Methods: During 2012 and 2013, program group and control group students completed pretest, posttest, and 6-week and 6-month…

  15. The combined effect of individual and neighborhood socioeconomic status on cancer survival rates.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chun-Ming Chang

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: This population-based study investigated the relationship between individual and neighborhood socioeconomic status (SES and mortality rates for major cancers in Taiwan. METHODS: A population-based follow-up study was conducted with 20,488 cancer patients diagnosed in 2002. Each patient was traced to death or for 5 years. The individual income-related insurance payment amount was used as a proxy measure of individual SES for patients. Neighborhood SES was defined by income, and neighborhoods were grouped as living in advantaged or disadvantaged areas. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to compare the death-free survival rates between the different SES groups after adjusting for possible confounding and risk factors. RESULTS: After adjusting for patient characteristics (age, gender, Charlson Comorbidity Index Score, urbanization, and area of residence, tumor extent, treatment modalities (operation and adjuvant therapy, and hospital characteristics (ownership and teaching level, colorectal cancer, and head and neck cancer patients under 65 years old with low individual SES in disadvantaged neighborhoods conferred a 1.5 to 2-fold higher risk of mortality, compared with patients with high individual SES in advantaged neighborhoods. A cross-level interaction effect was found in lung cancer and breast cancer. Lung cancer and breast cancer patients less than 65 years old with low SES in advantaged neighborhoods carried the highest risk of mortality. Prostate cancer patients aged 65 and above with low SES in disadvantaged neighborhoods incurred the highest risk of mortality. There was no association between SES and mortality for cervical cancer and pancreatic cancer. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings indicate that cancer patients with low individual SES have the highest risk of mortality even under a universal health-care system. Public health strategies and welfare policies must continue to focus on this vulnerable group.

  16. Government spending shocks, sovereign risk and the exchange rate regime

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bonam, D.; Lukkezen, J.H.J.

    2014-01-01

    Keynesian theory predicts output responses upon a fiscal expansion in a small open economy to be larger under fixed than floating exchange rates. We analyse the effects of fiscal expansions using a New Keynesian model and find that the reverse holds in the presence of sovereign default risk. By

  17. Assessing the impact of a combined analysis of four common low-risk genetic variants on autism risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carayol Jerome

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Autism is a complex disorder characterized by deficits involving communication, social interaction, and repetitive and restrictive patterns of behavior. Twin studies have shown that autism is strongly heritable, suggesting a strong genetic component. In other disease states with a complex etiology, such as type 2 diabetes, cancer and cardiovascular disease, combined analysis of multiple genetic variants in a genetic score has helped to identify individuals at high risk of disease. Genetic scores are designed to test for association of genetic markers with disease. Method The accumulation of multiple risk alleles markedly increases the risk of being affected, and compared with studying polymorphisms individually, it improves the identification of subgroups of individuals at greater risk. In the present study, we show that this approach can be applied to autism by specifically looking at a high-risk population of children who have siblings with autism. A two-sample study design and the generation of a genetic score using multiple independent genes were used to assess the risk of autism in a high-risk population. Results In both samples, odds ratios (ORs increased significantly as a function of the number of risk alleles, with a genetic score of 8 being associated with an OR of 5.54 (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.45 to 12.49. The sensitivities and specificities for each genetic score were similar in both analyses, and the resultant area under the receiver operating characteristic curves were identical (0.59. Conclusions These results suggest that the accumulation of multiple risk alleles in a genetic score is a useful strategy for assessing the risk of autism in siblings of affected individuals, and may be better than studying single polymorphisms for identifying subgroups of individuals with significantly greater risk.

  18. Binary Tree Pricing to Convertible Bonds with Credit Risk under Stochastic Interest Rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianbo Huang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The convertible bonds usually have multiple additional provisions that make their pricing problem more difficult than straight bonds and options. This paper uses the binary tree method to model the finance market. As the underlying stock prices and the interest rates are important to the convertible bonds, we describe their dynamic processes by different binary tree. Moreover, we consider the influence of the credit risks on the convertible bonds that is described by the default rate and the recovery rate; then the two-factor binary tree model involving the credit risk is established. On the basis of the theoretical analysis, we make numerical simulation and get the pricing results when the stock prices are CRR model and the interest rates follow the constant volatility and the time-varying volatility, respectively. This model can be extended to other financial derivative instruments.

  19. Rate and Risk Factors for Periprosthetic Joint Infection Among 36,494 Primary Total Hip Arthroplasties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Triantafyllopoulos, Georgios K; Soranoglou, Vasileios G; Memtsoudis, Stavros G; Sculco, Thomas P; Poultsides, Lazaros A

    2018-04-01

    As periprosthetic joint infections (PJIs) can have tremendous health and socioeconomic implications, recognizing patients at risk before surgery is of great importance. Therefore, we sought to determine the rate of and risk factors for deep PJI in patients undergoing primary total hip arthroplasty (THA). Clinical characteristics of patients treated with primary THA between January 1999 and December 2013 were retrospectively reviewed. These included patient demographics, comorbidities (including the Charlson/Deyo comorbidity index), length of stay, primary diagnosis, total/allogeneic transfusion rate, and in-hospital complications, which were grouped into local and systemic (minor and major). We determined the overall deep PJI rate, as well as the rates for early-onset (occurring within 2 years after index surgery) and late-onset PJI (occurring more than 2 years after surgery). A Cox proportional hazards regression model was constructed to identify risk factors for developing deep PJI. Significance level was set at 0.05. A deep PJI developed in 154 of 36,494 primary THAs (0.4%) during the study period. Early onset PJI was found in 122 patients (0.3%), whereas late PJI occurred in 32 patients (0.1%). Obesity, coronary artery disease, and pulmonary hypertension were identified as independent risk factors for deep PJI after primary THA. The rate of deep PJIs of the hip is relatively low, with the majority occurring within 2 years after THA. If the optimization of modifiable risk factors before THA can reduce the rate of this complication remains unknown, but should be attempted as part of good practice. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Outcomes of combined cardiovascular risk factor management strategies in type 2 diabetes: the ACCORD randomized trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Margolis, Karen L; O'Connor, Patrick J; Morgan, Timothy M; Buse, John B; Cohen, Robert M; Cushman, William C; Cutler, Jeffrey A; Evans, Gregory W; Gerstein, Hertzel C; Grimm, Richard H; Lipkin, Edward W; Narayan, K M Venkat; Riddle, Matthew C; Sood, Ajay; Goff, David C

    2014-06-01

    To compare effects of combinations of standard and intensive treatment of glycemia and either blood pressure (BP) or lipids in the Action to Control Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetes (ACCORD) trial. ACCORD enrolled 10,251 type 2 diabetes patients aged 40-79 years at high risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD) events. Participants were randomly assigned to hemoglobin A1c goals of risk of the primary outcome was lower in the groups intensively treated for glycemia (hazard ratio [HR] 0.67; 95% CI 0.50-0.91), BP (HR 0.74; 95% CI 0.55-1.00), or both (HR 0.71; 95% CI 0.52-0.96) compared with combined standard BP and glycemia treatment. For secondary outcomes, MI was significantly reduced by intensive glycemia treatment and stroke by intensive BP treatment; most other HRs were neutral or favored intensive treatment groups. In the lipid trial, the general pattern of results showed no evidence of benefit of intensive regimens (whether single or combined) compared with combined standard lipid and glycemia treatment. The mortality HR was 1.33 (95% CI 1.02-1.74) in the standard lipid/intensive glycemia group compared with the standard lipid/standard glycemia group. In the ACCORD BP trial, compared with combined standard treatment, intensive BP or intensive glycemia treatment alone improved major CVD outcomes, without additional benefit from combining the two. In the ACCORD lipid trial, neither intensive lipid nor glycemia treatment produced an overall benefit, but intensive glycemia treatment increased mortality. © 2014 by the American Diabetes Association.

  1. Risks and chances of combined forestry and biomass projects under the Clean Development Mechanism

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dutschke, Michael; Kapp, Gerald; Lehmann, Anna; Schaefer, Volkmar (Hamburg Inst. International Economics (Germany))

    2006-06-15

    The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) aims at reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, while at the same time taking up CO{sub 2} from the atmosphere in vegetation by means of afforestation and reforestation. In spite of these options being complementary, rules and modalities for both project classes are being treated separately in the relevant decisions by the Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. The present study reviews the state of bioenergy use in developing countries, modalities and procedures under the CDM, and the potential for transaction cost reduction in climate mitigation projects. There are four potential types of combinations in the matrix between small-scale - large-scale / afforestation and reforestation - bioenergy activities. We develop criteria for assessing sustainable development benefits and present an example project for each of the potential project types. We find that the individual risks of single-category projects do not increase when combining project categories and that each combination holds potential for integrated sustainability benefits. Risks for local livelihoods do increase with project size, but a transparent, participatory planning phase is able to counterbalance smallholders' lack of negotiation power. Further research will have to develop concrete project examples and blueprints with approved CDM methodologies, thereby decreasing transaction costs and risk for all potential project partners. (au)

  2. Single-Fraction High-Dose-Rate Brachytherapy and Hypofractionated External Beam Radiation Therapy in the Treatment of Intermediate-Risk Prostate Cancer - Long Term Results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cury, Fabio L., E-mail: fabio.cury@muhc.mcgill.ca [Department of Radiation Oncology, McGill University Health Centre, Montreal, QC (Canada); Duclos, Marie [Department of Radiation Oncology, McGill University Health Centre, Montreal, QC (Canada); Aprikian, Armen [Department of Urology, McGill University Health Centre, Montreal, QC (Canada); Patrocinio, Horacio [Department of Medical Physics, McGill University Health Centre, Montreal, QC (Canada); Kassouf, Wassim [Department of Urology, McGill University Health Centre, Montreal, QC (Canada); Shenouda, George; Faria, Sergio; David, Marc; Souhami, Luis [Department of Radiation Oncology, McGill University Health Centre, Montreal, QC (Canada)

    2012-03-15

    Purpose: We present the long-term results of a cohort of patients with intermediate-risk prostate cancer (PC) treated with single-fraction high-dose-rate brachytherapy (HDRB) combined with hypofractionated external beam radiation therapy (HypoRT). Methods and Materials: Patients were treated exclusively with HDRB and HypoRT. HDRB delivered a dose of 10 Gy to the prostate surface and HypoRT consisted of 50 Gy delivered in 20 daily fractions. The first 121 consecutive patients with a minimum of 2 years posttreatment follow-up were assessed for toxicity and disease control. Results: The median follow-up was 65.2 months. No acute Grade III or higher toxicity was seen. Late Grade II gastrointestinal toxicity was seen in 9 patients (7.4%) and Grade III in 2 (1.6%). Late Grade III genitourinary toxicity was seen in 2 patients (1.6%). After a 24-month follow-up, a rebiopsy was offered to the first 58 consecutively treated patients, and 44 patients agreed with the procedure. Negative biopsies were found in 40 patients (91%). The 5-year biochemical relapse-free survival rate was 90.7% (95% CI, 84.5-96.9%), with 13 patients presenting biochemical failure. Among them, 9 were diagnosed with distant metastasis. Prostate cancer-specific and overall survival rates at 5 years were 100% and 98.8% (95% CI, 96.4-100%), respectively. Conclusion: The combination of HDRB and HypoRT is well tolerated, with acceptable toxicity rates. Furthermore, results from rebiopsies revealed an encouraging rate of local control. These results confirm that the use of conformal RT techniques, adapted to specific biological tumor characteristics, have the potential to improve the therapeutic ratio in intermediate-risk PC patients.

  3. The association between social networks and self-rated risk of HIV ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Elizabeth J. Lyimo

    2014-03-18

    Mar 18, 2014 ... Bonding networks were defined as social groupings of students participating in activities ... bridging social networks and self-rated HIV risk behavior. ...... book for Theory and Research for the Sociology of Education, 241–258.

  4. Combining engineering and data-driven approaches: Development of a generic fire risk model facilitating calibration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    De Sanctis, G.; Fischer, K.; Kohler, J.

    2014-01-01

    Fire risk models support decision making for engineering problems under the consistent consideration of the associated uncertainties. Empirical approaches can be used for cost-benefit studies when enough data about the decision problem are available. But often the empirical approaches...... a generic risk model that is calibrated to observed fire loss data. Generic risk models assess the risk of buildings based on specific risk indicators and support risk assessment at a portfolio level. After an introduction to the principles of generic risk assessment, the focus of the present paper...... are not detailed enough. Engineering risk models, on the other hand, may be detailed but typically involve assumptions that may result in a biased risk assessment and make a cost-benefit study problematic. In two related papers it is shown how engineering and data-driven modeling can be combined by developing...

  5. EFFICACY OF FIXED COMBINATION OF VALSARTAN, AMLODIPINE AND HYDROCHLOROTHIAZIDE IN COMPLEX THERAPY OF THE PATIENT OF VERY HIGH CARDIOVASCULAR RISK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. M. Sokolov

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The high prevalence of arterial hypertension in association with high and very high cardiovascular risk requires widespread use of combined therapy. Current approaches to selection of combination components of antihypertensive drugs are based the efficacy of these drugs proven in multicenter randomized clinical trials. The triple combination of calcium antagonist, angiotensin II receptor blocker and thiazide diuretic is regarded as the best option for combined therapy in patients with arterial hypertension and ischemic heart disease to reduce cardiovascular risk.

  6. Medicine and ionizing rays: a help sheet in analysing risks in high rate curietherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gauron, C.

    2009-01-01

    This document proposes a synthesis of useful knowledge for radioprotection in the case of high rate curietherapy. Several aspects are considered: the concerned personnel, the course of treatment procedures, the hazards, the identification of the risk associated with ionizing radiation, the risk assessment and the determination of exposure levels, the strategy to control the risks (reduction of risks, technical measures concerning the installation or the personnel, teaching and information, prevention and medical monitoring), and risk control assessment

  7. Medicine and ionizing rays: a help sheet in analysing risks in pulsed rate curietherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gauron, C.

    2009-01-01

    This document proposes a synthesis of useful knowledge for radioprotection in the case of pulsed rate curietherapy. Several aspects are considered: the concerned personnel, the course of treatment procedures, the hazards, the identification of the risk associated with ionizing radiation, the risk assessment and the determination of exposure levels, the strategy to control the risks (reduction of risks, technical measures concerning the installation or the personnel, teaching and information, prevention and medical monitoring), and risk control assessment

  8. Prevalence Rate and Risk Factors of Depression in Outpatients with Premature Ejaculation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiansheng Zhang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to investigate the prevalence rate and risk factors of depression in outpatients who were diagnosed with PE. Therefore, between September 2009 and September 2011, 1801 outpatients at andrology clinics were enrolled and consented to participate in our survey by completed a verbal questionnaire. It included the following: (1 demographic data (e.g., age, body mass index, (2 PE duration, medical history, and sexual history, (3 self-estimated intravaginal ejaculatory latency times, (4 the Zung Self-rating Depression Scale (SDS, and (5 the National Institute of Health Chronic Prostatitis Symptom Index (NIH-CPSI and (6 the International Index of Erectile Function (IIEF-5. The results showed that a total of 1,206 patients were diagnosed with PE. The prevalence rate of depression in these PE patients was 26.78%. Depression was associated with PE duration, NIH-CPSI score, and IIEF-5 score. Risk factors for depression specifically included PE durations for 13–24, 25–60, or ≥61 months, CPSI scores of 15–30 or ≥31, and IIEF-5 scores <22. These findings suggested that several associated factors (PE duration, CPSI scores, and IIEF-5 scores were the risk factors of depression in men with PE.

  9. Relationship Between the Urine Flow Rate and Risk of Contrast-Induced Nephropathy After Emergent Percutaneous Coronary Intervention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yong; Lin, Lixia; Li, Yun; Li, Hualong; Wu, Deng-Xuan; Zhao, Jian-bin; Lian, Dan; Zhou, Yingling; Liu, Yuanhui; Ye, Piao; Ran, Peng; Duan, Chongyang; Chen, Shiqun; Chen, Pingyan; Xian, Ying; Chen, Jiyan; Tan, Ning

    2015-12-01

    A low urine flow rate is a marker of acute kidney injury. However, it is unclear whether a high urine flow rate is associated with a reduced risk of contrast-induced nephropathy (CIN) in high-risk patients. We conducted this study to evaluate the predictive value of the urine flow rate for the risk of CIN following emergent percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). We prospectively examined 308 patients undergoing emergent PCI who provided consent. The predictive value of the 24-hour postprocedural urine flow rate, adjusted by weight (UR/W, mL/kg/h) and divided into quartiles, for the risk of CIN was assessed using multivariate logistic regression analysis. The cumulative incidence of CIN was 24.4%. In particular, CIN was observed in 29.5%, 19.5%, 16.7%, and 32.0% of cases in the UR/W quartile (Q)-1 (≤0.94  mL/kg/h), Q2 (0.94-1.30  mL/kg/h), Q3 (1.30-1.71  mL/kg/h), and Q4 (≥1.71  mL/kg/h), respectively. Moreover, in-hospital death was noted in 7.7%, 3.9%, 5.1%, and 5.3% of patients in Q1, Q2, Q3, and Q4, respectively. After adjusting for potential confounding predictors, multivariate analysis indicated that compared with the moderate urine flow rate quartiles (Q2 + Q3), a high urine flow rate (Q4) (odds ratio [OR], 2.69; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.27-5.68; P = 0.010) and low urine flow rate (Q1) (OR, 2.23; 95% CI, 1.03-4.82; P = 0.041) were significantly associated with an increased risk of CIN. Moreover, a moderate urine flow rate (0.94-1.71  mL/kg/h) was significantly associated with a decreased risk of mortality. Our data suggest that higher and lower urine flow rates were significantly associated with an increased risk of CIN after emergent PCI, and a moderate urine flow rate (0.94-1.71  mL/kg/h) may be associated with a decreased risk of CIN with a good long-term prognosis after emergent PCI.

  10. 1988 failure rate screening data for fusion reliability and risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cadwallader, L.C.; Piet, S.J.

    1988-01-01

    This document contains failure rate screening data for application to fusion components. The screening values are generally fission or aerospace industry failure rate estimates that can be extrapolated for use by fusion system designers, reliability engineers and risk analysts. Failure rate estimates for tritium-bearing systems, liquid metal-cooled systems, gas-cooled systems, water-cooled systems and containment systems are given. Preliminary system availability estimates and selected initiating event frequency estimates are presented. This first edition document is valuable to design and safety analysis for the Compact Ignition Tokamak and the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor. 20 refs., 28 tabs

  11. Neural Network for Determining Risk Rate of Post-Heart Stroke Patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oldřich Trenz

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The ischemic heart disease presents an important health problem that affects a great part of the population and is the cause of one third of all deaths in the Czech Republic. The availability of data describing the patients’ prognosis enables their further analysis, with the aim of lowering the patients’ risk, by proposing optimum treatment. The main reason for creating the neural network model is not only to automate the process of establishing the risk rate of patients suffering from ischemic heart disease, but also to adapt it for practical use in clinical conditions. Our aim is to identify especially the specific group of risk-rate patients whose well-timed preventive care can improve the quality and prolong the length of their lives.The aim of the paper is to propose a patient-parameter structure, using which we could create a suitable model based on a self-taught neural network. The emphasis is placed on identifying key descriptive parameters (in the form of a reduction of the available descriptive parameters that are crucial for identifying the required patients, and simultaneously to achieve a portability of the model among individual clinical workplaces (availability of parameters.

  12. Sudden cardiac death and pump failure death prediction in chronic heart failure by combining ECG and clinical markers in an integrated risk model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orini, Michele; Mincholé, Ana; Monasterio, Violeta; Cygankiewicz, Iwona; Bayés de Luna, Antonio; Martínez, Juan Pablo

    2017-01-01

    Background Sudden cardiac death (SCD) and pump failure death (PFD) are common endpoints in chronic heart failure (CHF) patients, but prevention strategies are different. Currently used tools to specifically predict these endpoints are limited. We developed risk models to specifically assess SCD and PFD risk in CHF by combining ECG markers and clinical variables. Methods The relation of clinical and ECG markers with SCD and PFD risk was assessed in 597 patients enrolled in the MUSIC (MUerte Súbita en Insuficiencia Cardiaca) study. ECG indices included: turbulence slope (TS), reflecting autonomic dysfunction; T-wave alternans (TWA), reflecting ventricular repolarization instability; and T-peak-to-end restitution (ΔαTpe) and T-wave morphology restitution (TMR), both reflecting changes in dispersion of repolarization due to heart rate changes. Standard clinical indices were also included. Results The indices with the greatest SCD prognostic impact were gender, New York Heart Association (NYHA) class, left ventricular ejection fraction, TWA, ΔαTpe and TMR. For PFD, the indices were diabetes, NYHA class, ΔαTpe and TS. Using a model with only clinical variables, the hazard ratios (HRs) for SCD and PFD for patients in the high-risk group (fifth quintile of risk score) with respect to patients in the low-risk group (first and second quintiles of risk score) were both greater than 4. HRs for SCD and PFD increased to 9 and 11 when using a model including only ECG markers, and to 14 and 13, when combining clinical and ECG markers. Conclusion The inclusion of ECG markers capturing complementary pro-arrhythmic and pump failure mechanisms into risk models based only on standard clinical variables substantially improves prediction of SCD and PFD in CHF patients. PMID:29020031

  13. 76 FR 79379 - Risk-Based Capital Guidelines: Market Risk; Alternatives to Credit Ratings for Debt and...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-12-21

    ..., China, France, Germany, Hong Kong SAR, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Korea, Luxembourg, Mexico, the..., the legislative history of section 939A focuses on the conflicts of interest of credit rating agencies... illustrates how CDS spreads and CRCs could be used together to assign specific risk-weighting factors. In...

  14. The effect of long term combined yoga practice on the basal metabolic rate of healthy adults

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nagendra HR

    2006-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Different procedures practiced in yoga have stimulatory or inhibitory effects on the basal metabolic rate when studied acutely. In daily life however, these procedures are usually practiced in combination. The purpose of the present study was to investigate the net change in the basal metabolic rate (BMR of individuals actively engaging in a combination of yoga practices (asana or yogic postures, meditation and pranayama or breathing exercises for a minimum period of six months, at a residential yoga education and research center at Bangalore. Methods The measured BMR of individuals practicing yoga through a combination of practices was compared with that of control subjects who did not practice yoga but led similar lifestyles. Results The BMR of the yoga practitioners was significantly lower than that of the non-yoga group, and was lower by about 13 % when adjusted for body weight (P Conclusion This study shows that there is a significantly reduced BMR, probably linked to reduced arousal, with the long term practice of yoga using a combination of stimulatory and inhibitory yogic practices.

  15. Neoadjuvant chemotherapy in locally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma: Defining high-risk patients who may benefit before concurrent chemotherapy combined with intensity-modulated radiotherapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, Xiao-Jing; Tang, Ling-Long; Chen, Lei; Mao, Yan-Ping; Guo, Rui; Liu, Xu; Sun, Ying; Zeng, Mu-Sheng; Kang, Tie-Bang; Shao, Jian-Yong; Lin, Ai-Hua; Ma, Jun

    2015-11-13

    The purpose of this study was to create a prognostic model for distant metastasis in patients with locally advanced NPC who accept concurrent chemotherapy combined with intensity-modulated radiotherapy (CCRT) to identify high-risk patients who may benefit from neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NACT). A total of 881 patients with newly-diagnosed, non-disseminated, biopsy-proven locoregionally advanced NPC were retrospectively reviewed; 411 (46.7%) accepted CCRT and 470 (53.3%) accepted NACT followed by CCRT. Multivariate analysis demonstrated N2-3 disease, plasma Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) DNA > 4000 copies/mL, serum albumin ≤ 46 g/L and platelet count >300 k/cc were independent prognostic factors for distant metastasis in the CCRT group. Using these four factors, a prognostic model was developed, as follows: 1) low-risk group: 0-1 risk factors; and 2) high-risk group: 2-4 risk factors. In the high-risk group, patients who accepted NACT + CCRT had significantly higher distant metastasis-free survival and progression-free survival rates than the CCRT group (P = 0.001; P = 0.011). This simple prognostic model for distant metastasis in locoregionally advanced NPC may facilitate with the selection of high-risk patients who may benefit from NACT prior to CCRT.

  16. A Comparative Risk Assessment of Extended Integrated Leak Rate Testing Intervals

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oh, Ji Yong; Hwang, Seok Won; Lee, Byung Sik [Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power Co., Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2009-10-15

    This paper presents the risk impacts of extending the Integrated Leak Rate Testing (ILRT) intervals (from five years to ten years) of Yonggwang (YGN) Unit 1 and 2. These risk impacts depended on the annual variances of meteorological data and resident population. Main comparisons were performed between the initial risk assessment (2005) for the purpose of extending ILRT interval and risk reassessment (2009) where the changed plant internal configurations (core inventory and radioisotope release fraction) and plant external alterations (wind directions, rainfall and population distributions) were monitored. The reassessment showed that there was imperceptible risk increase when the ILRT interval was extended compared to the initial risk assessment. In addition, the increased value of the Large Early Release Frequency (LERF) also satisfied the acceptance guideline proposed on Reg. Guide 1.174. The MACCS II code was used for evaluating the offsite consequence analysis. The primary risk index were used as the Probabilistic Population Dose (PPD) by considering the early effects within 80 km. The Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) of YGN 1 and 2 was applied to evaluate the accident frequency of each source term category and the used PSA scope was limited to internal event.

  17. Consistent high clinical pregnancy rates and low ovarian hyperstimulation syndrome rates in high-risk patients after GnRH agonist triggering and modified luteal support

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iliodromiti, Stamatina; Blockeel, Christophe; Tremellen, Kelton P

    2013-01-01

    Are clinical pregnancy rates satisfactory and the incidence of OHSS low after GnRH agonist trigger and modified intensive luteal support in patients with a high risk of ovarian hyperstimulation syndrome (OHSS)?......Are clinical pregnancy rates satisfactory and the incidence of OHSS low after GnRH agonist trigger and modified intensive luteal support in patients with a high risk of ovarian hyperstimulation syndrome (OHSS)?...

  18. A multi-region assessment of population rates of cardiac catheterization and yield of high-risk coronary artery disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clement Fiona M

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background There is variation in cardiac catheterization utilization across jurisdictions. Previous work from Alberta, Canada, showed no evidence of a plateau in the yield of high-risk disease at cardiac catheterization rates as high as 600 per 100,000 population suggesting that the optimal rate is higher. This work aims 1 To determine if a previously demonstrated linear relationship between the yield of high-risk coronary disease and cardiac catheterization rates persists with contemporary data and 2 to explore whether the linear relationship exists in other jurisdictions. Methods Detailed clinical information on all patients undergoing cardiac catheterization in 3 Canadian provinces was available through the Alberta Provincial Project for Outcomes Assessment in Coronary Heart (APPROACH disease and partner initiatives in British Columbia and Nova Scotia. Population rates of catheterization and high-risk coronary disease detection for each health region in these three provinces, and age-adjusted rates produced using direct standardization. A mixed effects regression analysis was performed to assess the relationship between catheterization rate and high-risk coronary disease detection. Results In the contemporary Alberta data, we found a linear relationship between the population catheterization rate and the high-risk yield. Although the yield was slightly less in time period 2 (2002-2006 than in time period 1(1995-2001, there was no statistical evidence of a plateau. The linear relationship between catheterization rate and high-risk yield was similarly demonstrated in British Columbia and Nova Scotia and appears to extend, without a plateau in yield, to rates over 800 procedures per 100,000 population. Conclusions Our study demonstrates a consistent finding, over time and across jurisdictions, of linearly increasing detection of high-risk CAD as population rates of cardiac catheterization increase. This internationally-relevant finding

  19. The "polyenviromic risk score": Aggregating environmental risk factors predicts conversion to psychosis in familial high-risk subjects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Padmanabhan, Jaya L; Shah, Jai L; Tandon, Neeraj; Keshavan, Matcheri S

    2017-03-01

    Young relatives of individuals with schizophrenia (i.e. youth at familial high-risk, FHR) are at increased risk of developing psychotic disorders, and show higher rates of psychiatric symptoms, cognitive and neurobiological abnormalities than non-relatives. It is not known whether overall exposure to environmental risk factors increases risk of conversion to psychosis in FHR subjects. Subjects consisted of a pilot longitudinal sample of 83 young FHR subjects. As a proof of principle, we examined whether an aggregate score of exposure to environmental risk factors, which we term a 'polyenviromic risk score' (PERS), could predict conversion to psychosis. The PERS combines known environmental risk factors including cannabis use, urbanicity, season of birth, paternal age, obstetric and perinatal complications, and various types of childhood adversity, each weighted by its odds ratio for association with psychosis in the literature. A higher PERS was significantly associated with conversion to psychosis in young, familial high-risk subjects (OR=1.97, p=0.009). A model combining the PERS and clinical predictors had a sensitivity of 27% and specificity of 96%. An aggregate index of environmental risk may help predict conversion to psychosis in FHR subjects. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. A 'nu' look at gravitational waves: the black hole birth rate from neutrinos combined with the merger rate from LIGO

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davis, Jonathan H.; Fairbairn, Malcolm

    2017-01-01

    We make projections for measuring the black hole birth rate from the diffuse supernova neutrino background (DSNB) by future neutrino experiments, and constrain the black hole merger fraction ε, when combined with information on the black hole merger rate from gravitational wave experiments such as LIGO. The DSNB originates from neutrinos emitted by all the supernovae in the Universe, and is expected to be made up of two components: neutrinos from neutron-star-forming supernovae, and a sub-dominant component at higher energies from black-hole-forming 'unnovae'. We perform a Markov Chain Monte Carlo analysis of simulated data of the DSNB in an experiment similar to Hyper-Kamiokande, focusing on this second component. Since all knowledge of the neutrino emission from unnovae comes from simulations of collapsing stars, we choose two sets of priors: one where the unnovae are well-understood and one where their neutrino emission is poorly known. By combining the black hole birth rate from the DSNB with projected measurements of the black hole merger rate from LIGO, we show that the fraction of black holes which lead to binary mergers observed today ε could be constrained to be within the range 2 ⋅ 10 −4 ≤ ε ≤ 3 ⋅ 10 −2 at 3 σ confidence, after ten years of running an experiment like Hyper-Kamiokande.

  1. A 'nu' look at gravitational waves: the black hole birth rate from neutrinos combined with the merger rate from LIGO

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Davis, Jonathan H.; Fairbairn, Malcolm, E-mail: jonathan.davis@kcl.ac.uk, E-mail: malcolm.fairbairn@kcl.ac.uk [Theoretical Particle Physics and Cosmology, Department of Physics, King' s College London, London WC2R 2LS (United Kingdom)

    2017-07-01

    We make projections for measuring the black hole birth rate from the diffuse supernova neutrino background (DSNB) by future neutrino experiments, and constrain the black hole merger fraction ε, when combined with information on the black hole merger rate from gravitational wave experiments such as LIGO. The DSNB originates from neutrinos emitted by all the supernovae in the Universe, and is expected to be made up of two components: neutrinos from neutron-star-forming supernovae, and a sub-dominant component at higher energies from black-hole-forming 'unnovae'. We perform a Markov Chain Monte Carlo analysis of simulated data of the DSNB in an experiment similar to Hyper-Kamiokande, focusing on this second component. Since all knowledge of the neutrino emission from unnovae comes from simulations of collapsing stars, we choose two sets of priors: one where the unnovae are well-understood and one where their neutrino emission is poorly known. By combining the black hole birth rate from the DSNB with projected measurements of the black hole merger rate from LIGO, we show that the fraction of black holes which lead to binary mergers observed today ε could be constrained to be within the range 2 ⋅ 10{sup −4} ≤ ε ≤ 3 ⋅ 10{sup −2} at 3 σ confidence, after ten years of running an experiment like Hyper-Kamiokande.

  2. Impact of Race/Ethnicity and Socioeconomic Status on Risk-Adjusted Hospital Readmission Rates Following Hip and Knee Arthroplasty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martsolf, Grant R; Barrett, Marguerite L; Weiss, Audrey J; Kandrack, Ryan; Washington, Raynard; Steiner, Claudia A; Mehrotra, Ateev; SooHoo, Nelson F; Coffey, Rosanna

    2016-08-17

    Readmission rates following total hip arthroplasty (THA) and total knee arthroplasty (TKA) are increasingly used to measure hospital performance. Readmission rates that are not adjusted for race/ethnicity and socioeconomic status, patient risk factors beyond a hospital's control, may not accurately reflect a hospital's performance. In this study, we examined the extent to which risk-adjusting for race/ethnicity and socioeconomic status affected hospital performance in terms of readmission rates following THA and TKA. We calculated 2 sets of risk-adjusted readmission rates by (1) using the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services standard risk-adjustment algorithm that incorporates patient age, sex, comorbidities, and hospital effects and (2) adding race/ethnicity and socioeconomic status to the model. Using data from the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project, 2011 State Inpatient Databases, we compared the relative performances of 1,194 hospitals across the 2 methods. Addition of race/ethnicity and socioeconomic status to the risk-adjustment algorithm resulted in (1) little or no change in the risk-adjusted readmission rates at nearly all hospitals; (2) no change in the designation of the readmission rate as better, worse, or not different from the population mean at >99% of the hospitals; and (3) no change in the excess readmission ratio at >97% of the hospitals. Inclusion of race/ethnicity and socioeconomic status in the risk-adjustment algorithm led to a relative-performance change in readmission rates following THA and TKA at socioeconomic status in risk-adjusted THA and TKA readmission rates used for hospital accountability, payment, and public reporting. Prognostic Level III. See instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence. Copyright © 2016 by The Journal of Bone and Joint Surgery, Incorporated.

  3. Combined results on b-hadron production rates and decay properties

    CERN Document Server

    Abbaneo, D.; Andreev, V.; Barberio, E.; Battaglia, M.; Byth, S.; Boix, G.; Calvi, M.; Checchia, P.; Coyle, P.; Di Ciaccio, L.; Gagnon, P.; Hawkings, R.; Hayes, O.; Henrard, P.; Hessing, T.; Kroll, I.J.; Leroy, O.; Lucchesi, D.; Margoni, M.; Mele, S.; Moser, H.G.; Muheim, F.; Palla, F.; Pallin, D.; Parodi, F.; Paulini, M.; Piotto, E.; Privitera, P.; Rosnet, P.; Roudeau, P.; Rousseau, D.; Schneider, O.; Shepherd-Themistocleous, C.; Simonetto, F.; Spagnolo, P.; Stocchi, A.; Su, D.; Usher, T.; Weiser, C.; Wicklund, B.; Willocq, Stephane; CERN. Geneva

    2001-01-01

    Combined results on b-hadron lifetimes, b-hadron production rates, B^0_d - \\bar{B^0_d} and B^0_S - \\bar{B^0_s} oscillations, the decay width difference between the mass eigenstates of the B^0_s - \\bar{B^0_s} system, the average number of c and \\bar{c} quarks in b-hadron decays, and searches for CP violation in the B^0_d - \\bar{B-0_d} system are presented. They have been obtained from published and preliminary measurements available in Summer 2000 from the ALEPH, CDF, DELPHI, L3, OPAL and SLD Collaborations. These results have been used to determine the parameters of the CKM unitarity triangle.

  4. Combined non-adaptive light and smell stimuli lowered blood pressure, reduced heart rate and reduced negative affect.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Shan; Jacob, Tim J C

    2016-03-15

    Bright light therapy has been shown to have a positive impact on seasonal affective disorder (SAD), depression and anxiety. Smell has also has been shown to have effects on mood, stress, anxiety and depression. The objective of this study was to investigate the effect of the combination of light and smell in a non-adaptive cycle. Human subjects were given smell (lemon, lavender or peppermint) and light stimuli in a triangular wave (60scycle) for 15min. Blood pressure and heart rate were monitored before and after each session for 5 consecutive days and a Profile of Mood States (POMS) test was administered before and after the sensory stimulation on days 1, 3 and 5. The light-smell stimulus lowered blood pressure, both systolic and diastolic, and reduced heart rate for all odours compared to control. Of the two sensory stimuli, the odour stimulus contributed most to this effect. The different aromas in the light-smell combinations could be distinguished by their different effects on the mood factors with lemon inducing the greatest mood changes in Dejection-Depression, Anger-Hostility, Tension-Anxiety. In conclusion, combined light and smell stimulation was effective in lowering blood pressure, reducing heart rate and improving mood. The combination was more effective than either smell or light stimuli alone, suggesting that a light-smell combination would be a more robust and efficacious alternative treatment for depression, anxiety and stress. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. A Novel Risk prediction Model for Patients with Combined Hepatocellular-Cholangiocarcinoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Meng-Xin; He, Wen-Jun; Liu, Wei-Ren; Yin, Jia-Cheng; Jin, Lei; Tang, Zheng; Jiang, Xi-Fei; Wang, Han; Zhou, Pei-Yun; Tao, Chen-Yang; Ding, Zhen-Bin; Peng, Yuan-Fei; Dai, Zhi; Qiu, Shuang-Jian; Zhou, Jian; Fan, Jia; Shi, Ying-Hong

    2018-01-01

    Backgrounds: Regarding the difficulty of CHC diagnosis and potential adverse outcomes or misuse of clinical therapies, an increasing number of patients have undergone liver transplantation, transcatheter arterial chemoembolization (TACE) or other treatments. Objective: To construct a convenient and reliable risk prediction model for identifying high-risk individuals with combined hepatocellular-cholangiocarcinoma (CHC). Methods: 3369 patients who underwent surgical resection for liver cancer at Zhongshan Hospital were enrolled in this study. The epidemiological and clinical characteristics of the patients were collected at the time of tumor diagnosis. Variables ( P model discrimination. Calibration was performed using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test and a calibration curve. Internal validation was performed using a bootstrapping approach. Results: Among the entire study population, 250 patients (7.42%) were pathologically defined with CHC. Age, HBcAb, red blood cells (RBC), blood urea nitrogen (BUN), AFP, CEA and portal vein tumor thrombus (PVTT) were included in the final risk prediction model (area under the curve, 0.69; 95% confidence interval, 0.51-0.77). Bootstrapping validation presented negligible optimism. When the risk threshold of the prediction model was set at 20%, 2.73% of the patients diagnosed with liver cancer would be diagnosed definitely, which could identify CHC patients with 12.40% sensitivity, 98.04% specificity, and a positive predictive value of 33.70%. Conclusions: Herein, the study established a risk prediction model which incorporates the clinical risk predictors and CT/MRI-presented PVTT status that could be adopted to facilitate the diagnosis of CHC patients preoperatively.

  6. Progestin and estrogen potency of combination oral contraceptives and endometrial cancer risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maxwell, G L; Schildkraut, J M; Calingaert, B; Risinger, J I; Dainty, L; Marchbanks, P A; Berchuck, A; Barrett, J C; Rodriguez, G C

    2006-11-01

    Using data from a case-control study of endometrial cancer, we investigated the relationship between the progestin and estrogen potency in combination oral contraceptives (OCs) and the risk of developing endometrial cancer. Subjects included 434 endometrial cancer cases and 2,557 controls identified from the Cancer and Steroid Hormone (CASH) study. OCs were classified into four categories according to the individual potencies of each hormonal constituent (high versus low estrogen or progestin potency). Logistic regression was used to evaluate associations between endometrial cancer risk and combination OC formulations. With non-users as the referent group, use of OCs with either high potency progestin [odds ratio for endometrial cancer (OR)=0.21, 95% confidence interval (CI)=0.10 to 0.43] or with low potency progestin (OR=0.39, 95% CI=0.25 to 0.60) were both associated with a decreased risk of endometrial cancer. Overall high progestin potency OCs did not confer significantly more protection than low progestin potency OCs (OR=0.52, 95% CI=0.24 to 1.14). However, among women with a body mass index of 22.1 kg/m2 or higher, those who used high progestin potency oral contraceptives had a lower risk of endometrial cancer than those who used low progestin potency oral contraceptives (OR=0.31, 95% CI=0.11 to 0.92) while those with a BMI below 22.1 kg/m2 did not (OR=1.36, 95% CI=0.39 to 4.70). The potency of the progestin in most OCs appears adequate to provide a protective effect against endometrial cancer. Higher progestin-potency OCs may be more protective than lower progestin potency OCs among women with a larger body habitus.

  7. Rates and risk factors of injury in CrossFitTM: a prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moran, Sebastian; Booker, Harry; Staines, Jacob; Williams, Sean

    2017-09-01

    CrossFitTM is a strength and conditioning program that has gained widespread popularity since its inception approximately 15 years ago. However, at present little is known about the level of injury risk associated with this form of training. Movement competency, assessed using the Functional Movement ScreenTM (FMS), has been identified as a risk factor for injury in numerous athletic populations, but its role in CrossFit participants is currently unclear. The aim of this study was to evaluate the level of injury risk associated with CrossFit training, and examine the influence of a number of potential risk factors (including movement competency). A cohort of 117 CrossFit participants were followed prospectively for 12 weeks. Participants' characteristics, previous injury history and training experience were recorded at baseline, and an FMS assessment was conducted. The overall injury incidence rate was 2.10 per 1000 training hours (90% confidence limits: 1.32-3.33). A multivariate Poisson regression model identified males (rate ratio [RR]: 4.44 ×/÷ 3.30, very likely harmful) and those with previous injuries (RR: 2.35 ×/÷ 2.37, likely harmful) as having a higher injury risk. Inferences relating to FMS variables were unclear in the multivariate model, although number of asymmetries was a clear risk factor in a univariate model (RR per two additional asymmetries: 2.62 ×/÷ 1.53, likely harmful). The injury incidence rate associated with CrossFit training was low, and comparable to other forms of recreational fitness activities. Previous injury and gender were identified as risk factors for injury, whilst the role of movement competency in this setting warrants further investigation.

  8. Comparing variation in hospital rates of cesarean delivery among low-risk women using 3 different measures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armstrong, Joanne C; Kozhimannil, Katy B; McDermott, Patricia; Saade, George R; Srinivas, Sindhu K

    2016-02-01

    This report describes the development of a measure of low-risk cesarean delivery by the Society for Maternal-Fetal Medicine (SMFM). Safely lowering the cesarean delivery rate is a priority for maternity care clinicians and health care delivery systems. Therefore, hospital quality assurance programs are increasingly tracking cesarean delivery rates among low-risk pregnancies. Two commonly used definitions of "low risk" are available, the Joint Commission (JC) and the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ) measures, but these measures are not clinically comprehensive. We sought to refine the definition of the low-risk cesarean delivery rate to enhance the validity of the metric for quality measurement. We created this refined definition-called the SMFM definition-and compared it to the JC and AHRQ measures using claims-based data from the 2011 Nationwide Inpatient Sample of >863,000 births in 612 hospitals. Using these definitions, we calculated means and interquartile ranges (25th-75th percentile range) for hospital low-risk cesarean delivery rates, stratified by hospital size, teaching status, urban/rural location, and payer mix. Across all hospitals, the mean low-risk cesarean delivery rate was lowest for the SMFM definition (12.65%), but not substantially different from the JC and AHRQ measures (13.12% and 13.29%, respectively). We empirically examined the SMFM definition to ensure its validity and utility. This refined definition performs similarly to existing measures and has the added advantage of clinical perspective, enhanced face validity, and ease of use. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. The Combined Effect of Hyperuricaemia and Overweight/Obesity on Risk of Hypertension in Adults

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z Li

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Background: While hyperuricaemia and overweight/obesity can act alone to increase the prevalence of hypertension, few studies have examined their combined effect. Methods: This cross-sectional study of 42 332 Han Chinese from southwestern China investigated the combined effect of hyperuricaemia and overweight/obesity on risk of hypertension in the entire sample as well as in different genders and age groups. Results: Hypertension was significantly more prevalent among individuals with both hyperuricaemia and overweight/obesity (45.5% than among those with hyperuricaemia alone (28.1% or overweight/obesity alone (31.3%. Similarly, the increase in hypertension risk in the presence of both hyperuricaemia and overweight/obesity (OR = 6.777, 95%CI 6.133, 7.489 was significantly greater than the increase in the presence of hyperuricaemia alone (OR = 3.168, 95%CI 2.705, 3.711 or overweight/obesity alone (OR = 3.693, 95% CI 3.503, 3.893. These results were similar across each age group. The same trend was also observed when comparing men and women, though the odds ratios were greater for women. Conclusion: Co-occurrence of hyperuricaemia and overweight/obesity increases risk of hypertension more than either morbidity on its own, and this risk differential is significantly greater in women than men. These findings should be confirmed in other ethnic groups and in longitudinal studies.

  10. [Do laymen understand information about hospital quality? An empirical verification using risk-adjusted mortality rates as an example].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sander, Uwe; Kolb, Benjamin; Taheri, Fatemeh; Patzelt, Christiane; Emmert, Martin

    2017-11-01

    The effect of public reporting to improve quality in healthcare is reduced by the limited intelligibility of information about the quality of healthcare providers. This may result in worse health-related choices especially for older people and those with lower levels of education. There is, as yet, little information as to whether laymen understand the concepts behind quality comparisons and if this comprehension is correlated with hospital choices. An instrument with 20 items was developed to analyze the intelligibility of five technical terms which were used in German hospital report cards to explain risk-adjusted death rates. Two online presentations of risk-adjusted death rates for five hospitals in the style of hospital report cards were developed. An online survey of 353 volunteers tested the comprehension of the risk-adjusted mortality rates and included an experimental hospital choice. The intelligibility of five technical terms was tested: risk-adjusted, actual and expected death rate, reference range and national average. The percentages of correct answers for the five technical terms were in the range of 75.0-60.2%. Between 23.8% and 5.1% of the respondents were not able to answer the question about the technical term itself. The least comprehensible technical terms were "risk-adjusted death rate" and "reference range". The intelligibility of the 20 items that were used to test the comprehension of the risk-adjusted mortality was between 89.5% and 14.2%. The two items that proved to be least comprehensible were related to the technical terms "risk-adjusted death rate" and "reference range". For all five technical terms it was found that a better comprehension correlated significantly with better hospital choices. We found a better than average intelligibility for the technical terms "actual and expected death rate" and for "national average". The least understandable were "risk-adjusted death rate" and "reference range". Since the self

  11. Treatment Results of PDR Brachytherapy Combined With External Beam Radiotherapy in 106 Patients With Intermediate- to High-Risk Prostate Cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pieters, Bradley R.; Geijsen, Elisabeth D.; Koedooder, Kees; Blank, Leo E.C.M.; Rezaie, Elisa; Grient, Johan N.B. van der; Reijke, Theo M. de; Koning, Caro C.E.

    2011-01-01

    Purpose: To evaluate treatment outcome of pulsed dose-rate brachytherapy (PDR) combined with external-beam radiotherapy (EBRT) for the treatment of prostate cancer. Methods and Materials: Between 2002 and 2007, 106 patients were treated by EBRT combined with PDR and followed prospectively. Two, 38, and 66 patients were classified as low-, intermediate-, and high-risk disease respectively according to the National Comprehensive Cancer Network criteria. EBRT dose was 46 Gy in 2.0-Gy fractions. PDR dose was increased stepwise from 24.96 to 28.80 Gy. Biochemical disease free survival and overall survival were determined by the Kaplan-Meier method. Cumulative incidence of late gastrointestinal (GI) and genitourinary (GU) toxicity were scored, according to the Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events. Results: The 3- and 5-year biochemical nonevidence of disease (bNED) were 92.8% (95% confidence interval [CI], 87.1-98.5) and 89.5% (95% CI, 85.2-93.8), respectively. Overall survival at 3 and 5 years was 99% (95% CI, 96-100) and 96% (95% CI, 90-100), respectively. The 3- and 5-year Grade 2 GI toxicity was 5.3% (95% CI, 0-10.6) and 12.0% (95% CI, 1.4-22.6), respectively. No Grade 3 or higher GI toxicity was observed. The 3- and 5-year Grade 2 or higher GU toxicity was 18.7% (95% CI, 10.3-27.1) and 26.9% (95% CI, 15.1-38.7), respectively. Conclusion: Results on tumor control and late toxicity of EBRT combined with PDR are good and comparable to results obtained with EBRT combined with high-dose-rate brachytherapy for the treatment of prostate cancer.

  12. Combining Unsupervised and Supervised Statistical Learning Methods for Currency Exchange Rate Forecasting

    OpenAIRE

    Vasiljeva, Polina

    2016-01-01

    In this thesis we revisit the challenging problem of forecasting currency exchange rate. We combine machine learning methods such as agglomerative hierarchical clustering and random forest to construct a two-step approach for predicting movements in currency exchange prices of the Swedish krona and the US dollar. We use a data set with over 200 predictors comprised of different financial and macro-economic time series and their transformations. We perform forecasting for one week ahead with d...

  13. Relationship of detection rate of PET cancer screening examinees and risk factors. Analysis of background of examinees

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shibata, Koji; Uno, Kimiichi; Arai, Masami; Matsuura, Masaaki; Yoshida, Teruhiko; Momose, Toshimitsu; Ohtomo, Kuni

    2011-01-01

    Positron emission tomography (PET) cancer screening is performed widely in Japan as opportunistic screening, but no study has focused on the correlation with various cancer risk factors and the seeking bias of examinees and cancer detection rate. Analyzing our large series of PET cancer screening data, correlations with cancer detection rates according to general cancer risk factors and PET detection survey were reviewed, and the selection bias of the medical examinees was determined. 19189 examinees who underwent PET cancer screening were enrolled. Using logistic-regression analysis, we analyzed correlations between smoking history/drinking history/cancer family history and detection rates of thyroid cancer/breast cancer/colorectal cancer/lung cancer, which are the main malignancies detected in PET cancer screening. In addition, we evaluated seeking bias of examinees, analyzing correlations between the presence of cancer risk factors and prior screening checkups at other institutions to our PET cancer screening using a matched case-control study. Cancer detection rates by FDG-PET were 1.17% (224/19189), being much higher than those of standard cancer mass screenings. In males, statistically significant correlations were seen between lung cancer and smoking, and between prostate cancer and a family history of prostate cancer, but not between the detection rates of three other types of cancer (thyroid cancer/lung cancer/colorectal cancer) and other cancer risk factors. In females, detection rates of four types of cancer (thyroid cancer/lung cancer/colorectal cancer/breast cancer) were significantly higher in the examinees without cancer risks, and subgroup analysis according to types of cancer did not indicate significant correlations either. The matched case-control study evaluating seeking bias indicated that a significant proportion of the examinees with cancer risks had undergone prior cancer screening at other institutions. Our study indicated that there was

  14. estimated glomerular filtration rate and risk of survival in acute stroke

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2014-03-03

    Mar 3, 2014 ... ESTIMATED GLOMERULAR FILTRATION RATE AND RISK OF SURVIVAL IN ACUTE STROKE. E. I. Okaka, MBBS, FWACP, F. A. Imarhiagbe, MBChB, FMCP, F. E. Odiase, MBBS, FMCP, O. C. A. Okoye, MBBS, FWACP,. Department of Medicine, University of Benin Teaching Hospital, Benin City, Nigeria.

  15. Assessing the combined risks of PAHs and metals in urban soils by urbanization indicators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peng, Chi; Ouyang, Zhiyun; Wang, Meie; Chen, Weiping; Li, Xiaoma; Crittenden, John C.

    2013-01-01

    We quantitatively describe the impacts of urbanization on the accumulation of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and heavy metals (HMs) in urban soils as well as their health risks to residents. Residential building age, population density, road density, and distance from urban center were used as urbanization level indicators. Significant correlations were found between those urbanization indicators and the amounts of PAHs, Cu, Cd, Pb, Zn and As in residential soils. The exposure time of soils to urban air was the primary factor affecting soil pollution, followed by local road density and population density. Factor analysis suggested that 59.0% of the elevated pollutant concentrations were caused by citywide uniform deposition, and 15.3% were resulted from short-range deposition and/or non-combustion processes. The combined health risks posed by soil PAHs and HMs were aggravated with time and can be expressed as functions of residence age, road density, and other urbanization indicators. Highlights: •The soil PAH and HM contents were closely related to urbanization progression. •The PAH and HM contents were primarily affected by soil exposure time. •Local input loads of pollutants correlated with road density and population density. •The combined risks of PAHs and HMs increased with the urban development level. •The carcinogenic risks of PAHs and As were above 10 −5 and increased over time. -- The health risks of PAHs and HMs in residential soils were connected to building age, population density and road density of the community as well as its distance from urban center

  16. Desiccation as a mitigation tool to manage biofouling risks: trials on temperate taxa to elucidate factors influencing mortality rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hopkins, Grant A; Prince, Madeleine; Cahill, Patrick L; Fletcher, Lauren M; Atalah, Javier

    2016-01-01

    The desiccation tolerance of biofouling taxa (adults and early life-stages) was determined under both controlled and 'realistic' field conditions. Adults of the ascidian Ciona spp. died within 24 h. Mortality in the adult blue mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis occurred within 11 d under controlled conditions, compared with 7 d when held outside. The Pacific oyster Crassostrea gigas was the most desiccation-tolerant taxon tested (up to 34 d under controlled conditions). Biofouling orientated to direct sunlight showed faster mortality rates for all the taxa tested. Mortality in Mytilus juveniles took up to 24 h, compared with 8 h for Ciona, with greater survival at the higher temperature (18.5°C) and humidity (~95% RH) treatment combination. This study demonstrated that desiccation can be an effective mitigation method for a broad range of fouling taxa, especially their early life-stages. Further work is necessary to assess risks from other high-risk species such as algae and cyst forming species.

  17. Predictors of ventricular tachyarrhythmia occurring late after intracardiac repair of tetralogy of Fallot: combination of QRS duration change rate and tricuspid regurgitation pressure gradient

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takahashi, Masashi; Sugimoto, Ai; Tsuchida, Masanori

    2017-01-01

    Background To determine potential predictors of ventricular tachyarrhythmia and sudden cardiac death (SCD) occurring late after repair of tetralogy of Fallot (TOF). Methods Since 1964, 415 patients had undergone total repair for TOF at Niigata University Hospital. Of these, 89 patients who were followed for more than 10 years at our institute were retrospectively reviewed. Results The mean follow-up period was 24.3 years. During the study period, one patient died of cerebral bleeding, and two patients had SCD. The overall survival rates at 20, 30, and 40 years were 100%, 94.6%, and 94.6%, respectively. Eight (9.0%) patients required re-intervention during the late period associated with right ventricular outflow (n=4), tricuspid valve (n=3), aortic valve (n=2), and others (n=2). Ten (11.2%) patients had a history of ventricular tachycardia (VT) or ventricular fibrillation (VF), and six underwent implantation of an implantable cardiac defibrillator. Multivariate analysis selected the change rate of QRS duration [ms/year; odds ratio (OR), 2.44; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.28–4.65; P=0.007] and the pressure gradient at tricuspid valve regurgitation on echocardiography (OR, 1.12; 95% CI: 1.02–1.22; P=0.017) as risk factors for VT/VF or SCD. Trans-annular patch (TAP) repair was not an independent risk factor for ventricular arrhythmia. Conclusions The combination of rapid change rate of QRS duration and higher-pressure gradient at tricuspid regurgitation were risk factors for ventricular tachyarrhythmia late after TOF repair. Adequate surgical or catheter intervention for pressure and volume load in the right ventricle might decrease the prevalence of VT/VF and SCD. PMID:29312717

  18. Mapping at-risk-of-poverty rates, household employment, and social spending

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vandenbroucke, F.; Diris, R.; Cantillon, B.; Vandenbroucke, F.

    2014-01-01

    As a first step stylized facts are presented concerning at-risk-of-poverty rates for the non-elderly population, household employment (a concept introduced in this chapter) and social spending in European welfare states. The chapter provides a first exploration of a central theme of the book, which

  19. The association between social networks and self-rated risk of HIV ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study describes the social networks of secondary school students in Moshi Municipality, and their association with self-rated risk of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. A cross-sectional analytical study was conducted among 300 students aged 15–24 years in 5 secondary schools in Moshi, Tanzania.

  20. FACTORS THAT MAY DETERMINE THE RECOVERY RATE OF FINANCIAL RISK DAMAGES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicoleta Diana Rosioru

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available The information about the performance of a company, especially about its profitability, are useful to the consideration of potential changes of the economic resources, which the company might further control and the forecast of the ability to generate treasury flows by the existent resources. Also, based on the performance, judgments are expressed, aiming the efficiency whereof the company may use new resources. The performance of company may be influenced by its financial risk. The financial risk is defined as “variability of result indicators, under the incidence of financial structure of the company” . It is established by “the financing policy of the company, by equity or loans”. The financial risk results by the structure of the company shareholding or by the use method of financial instruments. The financial risks result by different sources, including changes of the interest rate, currency trades, expansions of lending operations, issuance of shares, as well as the use of derived financial instruments (IFD.

  1. Risk management under a two-factor model of the term structure of interest rates

    OpenAIRE

    Manuel Moreno

    1997-01-01

    This paper presents several applications to interest rate risk management based on a two-factor continuous-time model of the term structure of interest rates previously presented in Moreno (1996). This model assumes that default free discount bond prices are determined by the time to maturity and two factors, the long-term interest rate and the spread (difference between the long-term rate and the short-term (instantaneous) riskless rate). Several new measures of ``generalized duration" are p...

  2. Combined effort of alcohol consumption and lifestyle behaviors on risk of type 2 diabetes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Joosten, M.M.; Grobbee, D.E.; A, van der D.L.; Verschuren, W.M.; Hendriks, H.F.J.; Beulens, J.W.J.

    2010-01-01

    ackground: It has been suggested that the inverse association between alcohol and type 2 diabetes could be explained by moderate drinkers’ healthier lifestyles. Objective: We studied whether moderate alcohol consumption is associated with a lower risk of type 2 diabetes in adults with combined

  3. Combined effect of alcohol consumption and lifestyle behaviors on risk of type 2 diabetes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Joosten, M.M.; Grobbee, D.E.; Verschuren, W.M.M.; Hendriks, H.F.J.; Beulens, J.W.J.

    2010-01-01

    Background: It has been suggested that the inverse association between alcohol and type 2 diabetes could be explained by moderate drinkers' healthier lifestyles. Objective: We studied whether moderate alcohol consumption is associated with a lower risk of type 2 diabetes in adults with combined

  4. Combining the Suicide Intent Scale and the Karolinska Interpersonal Violence Scale in suicide risk assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stefansson, J; Nordström, P; Runeson, B; Åsberg, M; Jokinen, J

    2015-09-23

    High suicide intent, childhood trauma, and violent behavior are risk factors for suicide in suicide attempters. The aim of this study was to investigate whether the combined assessment of suicide intent and interpersonal violence would provide a better prediction of suicide risk than an assessment of only suicide intent or interpersonal violence. This is a cohort study involving 81 suicide attempters included in the study between 1993 and 1998. Patients were assessed with both the Suicide Intent Scale (SIS) and the Karolinska Interpersonal Violence Scale (KIVS). Through the unique personal identification number in Sweden, patients were linked to the Cause of Death Register maintained by the Swedish National Board of Health and Welfare. Suicides were ascertained from the death certificates. Seven of 14 patients who had died before April 2013 had committed suicide. The positive predictive value for the Suicide Intent Scale alone was 16.7 %, with a specificity of 52 % and an area under the curve of 0.74. A combined assessment with the KIVS gave higher specificity (63 %) and a positive predictive value of 18.8 % with an AUC of 0.83. Combined use of SIS and KIVS expressed interpersonal violence as an adult subscale gave a sensitivity of 83.3 %, a specificity of 80.3 %, and a positive predictive value of 26 % with an AUC of 0.85. The correlation between KIVS and SIS scores was not significant. Using both the the SIS and the KIVS combined may be better for predicting completed suicide than using them separately. The nonsignificant correlation between the scales indicates that they measure different components of suicide risk.

  5. [Morbidity rate of obesity in children in ukraine. Overweight as noncontagious disease risk factor].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Заболотна, Ірина Е

    The upsurge of prevalence rate of obesity and overweight that in the majority of cases traces back to childhood is a risk factor of the most common noncontagious diseases in adults. The aim was to analyze prevalence of obesity in children in Ukraine and to conduct the pilot study of medical condition of overweight children. Official state statistics of prevalence rate of obesity in kids and screening data of anthropometric characteristics, arterial tension levels, physical performance decrement and medical condition of children (boys - 50, girls - 90, average age - 15,1±0,1 years) was used in research. Data calculation performed by Statistica v. 6.0 software. Over the past few decades, the morbidity rate of obesity in children in Ukraine has greatly increased, especially in year class 15-17. Insufficient diagnosis of obesity in children is the consequence of the inadequacy of the existing system of preventive care and monitoring survey of decease risk factors. Children with body mass index (BMI) above normal have a risk of work decrement in 5,2 times (odds ratio, OR=5,2, CI95%: 1,7-10,6). Such children have higher risk of development of the diseases of the respiratory system (OR=8,1; CI95%: 3,9-13,6) and allergic dermatitis (OR=7,7; CI95%: 3,7-12,9). The odds ratio of arterial hypertension in such children is equal to 3,46±0,3 (95%CI: 2,0-5,9). According to prediction calculations, the situation with the increase of prevalence rate of obesity in children in Ukraine is unfavorable. The introduction of measures aimed at finding children with obesity, their registration and monitoring of patients' health with due regard to decease risk factors at the primary care level would conduce to improving prevention of obesity and prevention of alimentary diseases progression.

  6. Incidence and risk factors of HIV-related non-Hodgkin's lymphoma in the era of combination antiretroviral therapy: a European multicohort study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bohlius, Julia; Schmidlin, Kurt; Costagliola, Dominique

    2009-01-01

    Incidence and risk factors of HIV-associated non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL) are not well defined in the era of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART).......Incidence and risk factors of HIV-associated non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL) are not well defined in the era of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART)....

  7. Injury rates and injury risk factors among federal bureau of investigation new agent trainees

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    Background A one-year prospective examination of injury rates and injury risk factors was conducted in Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) new agent training. Methods Injury incidents were obtained from medical records and injury compensation forms. Potential injury risk factors were acquired from a lifestyle questionnaire and existing data at the FBI Academy. Results A total of 426 men and 105 women participated in the project. Thirty-five percent of men and 42% of women experienced one or more injuries during training. The injury incidence rate was 2.5 and 3.2 injuries/1,000 person-days for men and women, respectively (risk ratio (women/men) = 1.3, 95% confidence interval = 0.9-1.7). The activities most commonly associated with injuries (% of total) were defensive tactics training (58%), physical fitness training (20%), physical fitness testing (5%), and firearms training (3%). Among the men, higher injury risk was associated with older age, slower 300-meter sprint time, slower 1.5-mile run time, lower total points on the physical fitness test (PFT), lower self-rated physical activity, lower frequency of aerobic exercise, a prior upper or lower limb injury, and prior foot or knee pain that limited activity. Among the women higher injury risk was associated with slower 300-meter sprint time, slower 1.5-mile run time, lower total points on the PFT, and prior back pain that limited activity. Conclusion The results of this investigation supported those of a previous retrospective investigation emphasizing that lower fitness and self-reported pain limiting activity were associated with higher injury risk among FBI new agents. PMID:22166096

  8. A combined continuous and interval aerobic training improves metabolic syndrome risk factors in men

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sari-Sarraf V

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Vahid Sari-Sarraf,1 Akbar Aliasgarzadeh,2 Mohammad-Mahdi Naderali,3 Hamid Esmaeili,1 Ebrahim K Naderali4 1Department of Exercise Physiology, Faculty of Physical Education and Sport Sciences, University of Tabriz, 2Bone Research Centre, Endocrine Unit, Department of Medicine, Tabriz University of Medical Sciences, Tabriz, Iran; 3The School of Pharmacy and Biomolecular Sciences, Liverpool John Moores University, Liverpool, 4Faculty of Science, Liverpool Hope University, Liverpool, UK Abstract: Individuals with metabolic syndrome have significantly higher risk of cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes leading to premature death mortality. Metabolic syndrome has a complex etiology; thus, it may require a combined and multi-targeted aerobic exercise regimen to improve risk factors associated with it. Therefore, the aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of combined continuous and interval aerobic training on patients with metabolic syndrome. Thirty adult male with metabolic syndrome (54±8 years were randomly divided into two groups: test training group (TTG; n=15 and control group (CG; n=15. Subjects in TTG performed combined continuous and interval aerobic training using a motorized treadmill three times per week for 16 weeks. Subjects in CG were advised to continue with their normal activities of life. Twenty-two men completed the study (eleven men in each group. At the end of the study, in TTG, there were significant (for all, P<0.05 reductions in total body weight (-3.2%, waist circumference (-3.43 cm, blood pressure (up to -12.7 mmHg, and plasma insulin, glucose, and triacylglyceride levels. Moreover, there were significant (for all, P<0.05 increases VO2max (-15.3% and isometric strength of thigh muscle (28.1% and high-density lipoprotein in TTG. None of the above indices were changed in CG at the end of 16-week study period. Our study suggests that adoption of a 16-week combined continuous and interval aerobic training regimen in men

  9. Risks to health from radiation at low dose rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gentner, N.E.; Osborne, R.V.

    1997-01-01

    Our focus is on whether, using a balance-of-evidence approach, it is possible to say that at a low enough dose, or at a sufficiently low dose rate, radiation risk reduces to zero in a population. We conclude that insufficient evidence exists at present to support such a conclusion. In part this reflects statistical limitations at low doses, and in part (although mechanisms unquestionably exist to protect us against much of the damage induced by ionizing radiation) the biological heterogeneity of human populations, which means these mechanisms do not act in all members of the population at all times. If it is going to be possible to demonstrate that low doses are less dangerous than we presently assume, the evidence, paradoxically, will likely come from studies of higher dose and dose rate scenarios than are encountered occupationally. (author)

  10. Combined influence of healthy diet and active lifestyle on cardiovascular disease risk factors in adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cuenca-García, M; Ortega, F B; Ruiz, J R; González-Gross, M; Labayen, I; Jago, R; Martínez-Gómez, D; Dallongeville, J; Bel-Serrat, S; Marcos, A; Manios, Y; Breidenassel, C; Widhalm, K; Gottrand, F; Ferrari, M; Kafatos, A; Molnár, D; Moreno, L A; De Henauw, S; Castillo, M J; Sjöström, M

    2014-06-01

    To investigate the combined influence of diet quality and physical activity on cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors in adolescents, adolescents (n = 1513; 12.5-17.5 years) participating in the Healthy Lifestyle in Europe by Nutrition in Adolescence study were studied. Dietary intake was registered using a 24-h recall and a diet quality index was calculated. Physical activity was assessed by accelerometry. Lifestyle groups were computed as: healthy diet and active, unhealthy diet but active, healthy diet but inactive, and unhealthy diet and inactive. CVD risk factor measurements included cardiorespiratory fitness, adiposity indicators, blood lipid profile, blood pressure, and insulin resistance. A CVD risk score was computed. The healthy diet and active group had a healthier cardiorespiratory profile, fat mass index (FMI), triglycerides, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) levels and total cholesterol (TC)/HDL-C ratio (all P ≤ 0.05). Overall, active adolescents showed higher cardiorespiratory fitness, lower FMI, TC/HDL-C ratio, and homeostasis model assessment index and healthier blood pressure than their inactive peers with either healthy or unhealthy diet (all P ≤ 0.05). Healthy diet and active group had healthier CVD risk score compared with the inactive groups (all P ≤ 0.02). Thus, a combination of healthy diet and active lifestyle is associated with decreased CVD risk in adolescents. Moreover, an active lifestyle may reduce the adverse consequences of an unhealthy diet. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  11. ICUD-0530 Scenario based risk assessment of the dispersion of E-coli from combined sewer overflow to a fresh-water lake

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Michael Robdrup; Thorndahl, Søren Liedtke; Nielsen, Jesper Ellerbæk

    2017-01-01

    A scenario based risk assessment method is used to evaluate how combined sewer overflow (CSO) affects a nearby bathing beach in Skanderborg, Denmark. The method combines an urban drainage model with a 3D CFD model to pre-simulate 60 different scenarios, used for assessing the risk of poor bathing...

  12. A rating for the risk; Ein Rating fuers Risiko

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Faltermeier, Daniel [Meteocontrol GmbH, Augsburg (Germany). Technische Due Diligence PV

    2013-07-01

    The assessment of the quality and risks of the photovoltaics project plays an important role in the investment decision. Especially for very large projects, an extensive risk assessment of yield losses and technical tests are increasingly demanded by independent experts. A new method enables the evaluation of solar energy systems.

  13. Combined Psoas Compartment-Sciatic Block in a Pediatric Patient with High-Risk Cardiopulmonary

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Levent Þahin

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available There is high potential for complications in cardiopulmonary high-risk patients with valvular heart disease at perioperative period. The operation was planned due to pathological fracture of the femoral shaft of a nine year old male patient weighing 26 kilograms. He had 3o tricuspid insufficiency, 3o mitral insufficiency and pulmonary hypertension in preoperative evaluation. Sciatic nerve block and psoas compartment block was performed to patient for anesthesia and analgesia. In conclusion we think that combined psoas compartment-sciatic nerve block may be a good alternative to other methods of anesthesia in high-risk pediatric patients with cardiopulmonary perspective in lower-extremity surgery.

  14. Microalbuminuria and sRAGE in High-Risk Hypertensive Patients Treated with Nifedipine/Telmisartan Combination Treatment: A Substudy of TALENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Colomba Falcone

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Some antihypertensive drugs have also renoprotective and anti-inflammatory properties that go beyond their effect on blood pressure. It has been suggested that microalbuminuria and glomerular filtration rate (GFR are associated with circulating levels of the soluble form of the receptor, sRAGE (soluble receptor for advanced glycation ends-products. In the present analysis, we used data from the TALENT study to evaluate soluble receptor for advanced glycation end-products (sRAGE plasma levels in patients with hypertension and high-cardiovascular risk-treated nifedipine and telmisartan in combination. Treatment with nifedipine-telmisartan significantly decreased mean systolic and diastolic ambulatory blood pressure and resulted in a significant increase in sRAGE plasma concentrations after 24 weeks of therapy. We concluded that in hypertensive patients with early-stage renal disease, sRAGE concentrations are not influenced by either microalbuminuria or GFR. Long-term treatment with a combination of nifedipine-telmisartan may have a beneficial effect increasing sRAGE plasma levels, thus exerting an atheroprotective and anti-inflammatory activity.

  15. Treatment of localized prostate cancer using a combination of high dose rate lridium-192 brachytherapy and external beam irradiation: Initial Australian experience

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stevens, M.J.; Stricker, P.D.; Brenner, P.C.; Kooner, R.; O'Neil, G.F.A.; Duval, P.J.; Jagavkar, R.S.; Cross, P.; Saalfeld, J.; Martland, J.

    2003-01-01

    Combination high dose rate brachytherapy (HDRB) and external beam radiation therapy is technically and clinically feasible as definitive treatment for localized prostate cancer. We report the first large Australian experience using this technique of radiation dose escalation in 82 patients with intermediate- and high-risk disease. With a median follow up of 3 years (156 weeks), complications were low and overall prostate-specific antigen progression-free survival was 91% using the American Society for Therapeutic Radiology and Oncology consensus definition. The delivery of hypofractionated radiation through the HDRB component shortens overall treatment time and is both biologically and logistically advantageous. As a radiation boost strategy, HDRB is easy to learn and could be introduced into most facilities with brachytherapy capability. Copyright (2003) Blackwell Science Pty Ltd

  16. Cash Flow and Discount Rate Risk in Up and Down Markets: What is actually priced?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Botshekan, M.; Kraeussl, R.G.W.; Lucas, A.

    2012-01-01

    We test whether asymmetric preferences for losses versus gains affect the prices of cash flow versus discount rate risk. We construct a return decomposition distinguishing cash flow and discount rate betas in up and down markets. Using U.S. data, we find that downside cash flow and discount rate

  17. Effect of benazepril, robenacoxib and their combination on glomerular filtration rate in cats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, Jonathan N; Panteri, Alessandro; Graille, Melanie; Seewald, Wolfgang; Friton, Gabriele; Desevaux, Cyril

    2016-06-23

    Combined use of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors and nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs may induce acute kidney injury in humans, especially when combined with diuretics. The objective of this investigation was to evaluate the effects of benazepril, robenacoxib and their combination in healthy cats. In each of two studies (study 1 followed by study 2), 32 healthy cats were randomised to one of four groups (n = 4 male and 4 female cats per group) in a parallel-group design. The groups received orally once daily for 7 days either placebo (control group), benazepril, robenacoxib or benazepril plus robenacoxib. In study 2, all groups received in addition 0.5 mg/kg furosemide twice daily by subcutaneous injection for 7 days. Benazepril, robenacoxib and their combination were well tolerated as evidenced from lack of clinical signs and no negative effects on body weight, feed consumption and clinical chemistry, haematology and urinalysis variables. The primary endpoint of the study was the glomerular filtration rate (GFR), which was estimated from the plasma clearance of iohexol. In the absence of furosemide, GFR was significantly higher in cats receiving the combination of benazepril plus robenacoxib compared to the other three groups, and was also significantly higher in females receiving only benazepril compared to the control. Administration of furosemide induced diuresis, reduced GFR and activated the renin-aldosterone-angiotensin system, evidenced from increased plasma renin activity and plasma aldosterone concentrations. Compared to the control group in cats treated with furosemide, GFR was increased by benazepril (females only) but decreased by robenacoxib (males only). Benazepril, robenacoxib and their combination significantly inhibited the increase in plasma aldosterone induced by furosemide. The combination of benazepril and robenacoxib was well tolerated and either increased or had a neutral effect on GFR in healthy cats without or with

  18. Understanding the Impact of Exposure Patterns on Risks from Combined Exposures to Multiple Chemicals

    Science.gov (United States)

    The talk was invited so there is no formal abstract. However, the focus of the talk is on the use of exposure information in the evaluation of risks from combined exposures to chemicals. The talk presents a bit of history and several case studies. All empirical data presented hav...

  19. Bit Error Rate Performance Analysis of a Threshold-Based Generalized Selection Combining Scheme in Nakagami Fading Channels

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kousa Maan

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available The severity of fading on mobile communication channels calls for the combining of multiple diversity sources to achieve acceptable error rate performance. Traditional approaches perform the combining of the different diversity sources using either the conventional selective diversity combining (CSC, equal-gain combining (EGC, or maximal-ratio combining (MRC schemes. CSC and MRC are the two extremes of compromise between performance quality and complexity. Some researches have proposed a generalized selection combining scheme (GSC that combines the best branches out of the available diversity resources ( . In this paper, we analyze a generalized selection combining scheme based on a threshold criterion rather than a fixed-size subset of the best channels. In this scheme, only those diversity branches whose energy levels are above a specified threshold are combined. Closed-form analytical solutions for the BER performances of this scheme over Nakagami fading channels are derived. We also discuss the merits of this scheme over GSC.

  20. Combined impact of negative lifestyle factors on cardiovascular risk in children: a randomized prospective study

    OpenAIRE

    Meyer, Ursina; Schindler, Christian; Bloesch, Tamara; Schmocker, Eliane; Zahner, Lukas; Puder, Jardena J; Kriemler, Susi

    2014-01-01

    PURPOSE: Negative lifestyle factors are known to be associated with increased cardiovascular risk (CVR) in children, but research on their combined impact on a general population of children is sparse. Therefore, we aimed to quantify the combined impact of easily assessable negative lifestyle factors on the CVR scores of randomly selected children after 4 years. METHODS: Of the 540 randomly selected 6- to 13-year-old children, 502 children participated in a baseline health assessment, and ...

  1. Rationale for combination therapy in hypertension management: focus on angiotensin receptor blockers and thiazide diuretics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nash, David T

    2007-04-01

    Despite recognition that hypertension is a major risk factor for cardiovascular events and mortality, blood pressure control rates remain low in the US population. Reflecting clinical trial results, hypertension management guidelines assert the clinical benefit of achieving current blood pressure goals and indicate that most patients will require 2 or more drugs to reach goal. Well-designed drug combinations counter hypertension via complementary mechanisms that increase antihypertensive efficacy, potentially with lower rates of adverse events than higher dose monotherapy regimens. Lower adverse event rates, in turn, may contribute to greater adherence with treatment. The combination of a low-dose diuretic with agents that block the effects of the renin-angiotensin system (RAS), such as angiotensin receptor blockers, has been found in numerous clinical trials to be highly effective for lowering blood pressure in patients with uncomplicated as well as high-risk hypertension, with a comparable favorable side effect profile compared with monotherapy. Moreover, agents that block the RAS are associated with a lower risk of new-onset diabetes mellitus than other antihypertensive classes. Complementary combinations of antihypertensive agents provide an efficient and effective approach to hypertension management.

  2. Regional changes over time in initial virologic response rates to combination antiretroviral therapy across Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bannister, Wendy P; Kirk, Ole; Gatell, Jose M

    2006-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Changes in virologic response to initial combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) over calendar time may indicate improvements in cART or emergence of primary resistance. Regional variations may identify differences in available antiretroviral drugs or patient management. METHODS: Vi...... rates Udgivelsesdato: 2006/6...

  3. Cross Time-Frequency Analysis for Combining Information of Several Sources: Application to Estimation of Spontaneous Respiratory Rate from Photoplethysmography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peláez-Coca, M. D.; Orini, M.; Lázaro, J.; Bailón, R.; Gil, E.

    2013-01-01

    A methodology that combines information from several nonstationary biological signals is presented. This methodology is based on time-frequency coherence, that quantifies the similarity of two signals in the time-frequency domain. A cross time-frequency analysis method, based on quadratic time-frequency distribution, has been used for combining information of several nonstationary biomedical signals. In order to evaluate this methodology, the respiratory rate from the photoplethysmographic (PPG) signal is estimated. The respiration provokes simultaneous changes in the pulse interval, amplitude, and width of the PPG signal. This suggests that the combination of information from these sources will improve the accuracy of the estimation of the respiratory rate. Another target of this paper is to implement an algorithm which provides a robust estimation. Therefore, respiratory rate was estimated only in those intervals where the features extracted from the PPG signals are linearly coupled. In 38 spontaneous breathing subjects, among which 7 were characterized by a respiratory rate lower than 0.15 Hz, this methodology provided accurate estimates, with the median error {0.00; 0.98} mHz ({0.00; 0.31}%) and the interquartile range error {4.88; 6.59} mHz ({1.60; 1.92}%). The estimation error of the presented methodology was largely lower than the estimation error obtained without combining different PPG features related to respiration. PMID:24363777

  4. Cross Time-Frequency Analysis for Combining Information of Several Sources: Application to Estimation of Spontaneous Respiratory Rate from Photoplethysmography

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. D. Peláez-Coca

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available A methodology that combines information from several nonstationary biological signals is presented. This methodology is based on time-frequency coherence, that quantifies the similarity of two signals in the time-frequency domain. A cross time-frequency analysis method, based on quadratic time-frequency distribution, has been used for combining information of several nonstationary biomedical signals. In order to evaluate this methodology, the respiratory rate from the photoplethysmographic (PPG signal is estimated. The respiration provokes simultaneous changes in the pulse interval, amplitude, and width of the PPG signal. This suggests that the combination of information from these sources will improve the accuracy of the estimation of the respiratory rate. Another target of this paper is to implement an algorithm which provides a robust estimation. Therefore, respiratory rate was estimated only in those intervals where the features extracted from the PPG signals are linearly coupled. In 38 spontaneous breathing subjects, among which 7 were characterized by a respiratory rate lower than 0.15 Hz, this methodology provided accurate estimates, with the median error {0.00; 0.98} mHz ({0.00; 0.31}% and the interquartile range error {4.88; 6.59} mHz ({1.60; 1.92}%. The estimation error of the presented methodology was largely lower than the estimation error obtained without combining different PPG features related to respiration.

  5. Risk Analysis using Corrosion Rate Parameter on Gas Transmission Pipeline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sasikirono, B.; Kim, S. J.; Haryadi, G. D.; Huda, A.

    2017-05-01

    In the oil and gas industry, the pipeline is a major component in the transmission and distribution process of oil and gas. Oil and gas distribution process sometimes performed past the pipeline across the various types of environmental conditions. Therefore, in the transmission and distribution process of oil and gas, a pipeline should operate safely so that it does not harm the surrounding environment. Corrosion is still a major cause of failure in some components of the equipment in a production facility. In pipeline systems, corrosion can cause failures in the wall and damage to the pipeline. Therefore it takes care and periodic inspections or checks on the pipeline system. Every production facility in an industry has a level of risk for damage which is a result of the opportunities and consequences of damage caused. The purpose of this research is to analyze the level of risk of 20-inch Natural Gas Transmission Pipeline using Risk-based inspection semi-quantitative based on API 581 associated with the likelihood of failure and the consequences of the failure of a component of the equipment. Then the result is used to determine the next inspection plans. Nine pipeline components were observed, such as a straight pipes inlet, connection tee, and straight pipes outlet. The risk assessment level of the nine pipeline’s components is presented in a risk matrix. The risk level of components is examined at medium risk levels. The failure mechanism that is used in this research is the mechanism of thinning. Based on the results of corrosion rate calculation, remaining pipeline components age can be obtained, so the remaining lifetime of pipeline components are known. The calculation of remaining lifetime obtained and the results vary for each component. Next step is planning the inspection of pipeline components by NDT external methods.

  6. Outcomes Associated With 3 Treatment Schedules of High-Dose-Rate Brachytherapy Monotherapy for Favorable-Risk Prostate Cancer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jawad, Maha Saada; Dilworth, Joshua T.; Gustafson, Gary S.; Ye, Hong; Wallace, Michelle [Department of Radiation Oncology, Oakland University William Beaumont School of Medicine, Royal Oak, Michigan (United States); Martinez, Alvaro [Michigan HealthCare Professionals/21" s" t Century Oncology, Farmington Hills, Michigan (United States); Chen, Peter Y. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Oakland University William Beaumont School of Medicine, Royal Oak, Michigan (United States); Krauss, Daniel J., E-mail: DKrauss@beaumont.edu [Department of Radiation Oncology, Oakland University William Beaumont School of Medicine, Royal Oak, Michigan (United States)

    2016-03-15

    Purpose: We report the outcomes associated with 3 high-dose-rate (HDR) brachytherapy regimens used as monotherapy for favorable-risk prostate cancer. Methods and Materials: Four hundred ninety-four patients with stage ≤T2b prostate cancer, Gleason score ≤7, and prostate-specific antigen levels ≤15 ng/mL underwent HDR brachytherapy as monotherapy. Of those, 319 received 38 Gy in 4 fractions, 79 received 24 Gy in 2 fractions, and 96 received 27 Gy in 2 fractions. Acute and chronic genitourinary (GU) and gastrointestinal (GI) toxicities were defined as side effects occurring ≤6 and >6 months, respectively, after radiation therapy (RT) and were graded according to the Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events version 3.0. The time to toxicity was calculated from the date of RT completion. Variables were analyzed with χ{sup 2} test. P values <.05 were considered significant. Results: The median overall follow-up time was 4 years (range, 5.5, 3.5, and 2.5 years for 38 Gy, 24 Gy, and 27 Gy, respectively, P<.001). Acute and chronic grade ≥2 GU and GI toxicity profiles were similar among groups. Acceptable rates of grade 2 GU toxicities were seen with overall acute/chronic frequency/urgency, dysuria, retention, incontinence, and hematuria rates of 14%/20%, 6%/7%, 7%/4%, 1.5%/2%, and 1.5%/7%, respectively. Minimal grade 3 and no grade 4 or 5 toxicities were seen. Grade 1, 2, and 3 chronic urethral stricture rates were 0.3%, 2%, and 1%, respectively. All GI toxicities were similar between groups, with overall rates of acute/chronic grade 2 diarrhea, rectal pain/tenesmus, rectal bleeding, and proctitis of 1%/1%, <1%/0.5%, 0%/2%, and <1%/1%, respectively. No grade 3, 4, or 5 toxicities were seen. All comparisons were similar for hormone-naïve patients. The median time to maximal GU/GI toxicity was similar between groups, ranging from 1 to 1.6 to 0.9 to 1.2 years, respectively. There were no differences in clinical outcomes between the 3 groups at 5

  7. Risk reduction by combining nature values with flood protection?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Van Loon-Steensma Jantsje M.

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In the Netherlands, the concept of a multifunctional dike has already often been implemented, and has been identified as a promising climate adaptation measure. In a multifunctional dike, functions like urban development, transport infrastructure, recreation, agriculture or nature are deliberately combined with its primary flood protection function. This means that the design must be based on the requirements and life span of all different functions, while in a monofunctional dike only the flood protection function is considered. By accommodating other functions, a multifunctional dike may easier fit into, or even contribute to the quality of the landscape. Moreover, these other functions may help in financing the flood protection works, but governance is more complicated. To avoid costly adjustments forthcoming from changed safety standards, incorporation of multiple functions can require a more “robust” flood defence than a monofunctional flood defence. A robust flood defence can withstand more extreme situations than required by the present safety standards, and has a substantially lower flooding probability. Therefore, a multifunctional dike may be attractive in view of the uncertainties regarding the effects of climate change and a changing world. Moreover, it will result in reduced flood risk. As part of the Dutch Delta programme, several explorative studies on multifunctional dikes were initiated. Most studies focused on urban areas, but also in the rural area interest emerged for multifunctional dikes, e.g. for the integration of salt marshes into the flood defences. Marshes provide valuable habitat for vegetation and invertebrate species, and are important for wading birds. Furthermore, under condition of abundant sediment availability they can keep pace with sea level rise. Explorative modelling results indicate that vegetated forelands affect wave heights, even under extreme conditions. However, the inclusion of a vegetated

  8. Combined Versus Detailed Evaluation Components in Medical Student Global Rating Indexes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kim L. Askew

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: To determine if there is any correlation between any of the 10 individual components of a global rating index on an emergency medicine (EM student clerkship evaluation form. If there is correlation, to determine if a weighted average of highly correlated components loses predictive value for the final clerkship grade. Methods: This study reviewed medical student evaluations collected over two years of a required fourth-year rotation in EM. Evaluation cards, comprised of a detailed 10-part evaluation, were completed after each shift. We used a correlation matrix between evaluation category average scores, using Spearman’s rho, to determine if there was any correlation of the grades between any of the 10 items on the evaluation form. Results: A total of 233 students completed the rotation over the two-year period of the study. There were strong correlations (>0.80 between assessment components of medical knowledge, history taking, physical exam, and differential diagnosis. There were also strong correlations between assessment components of team rapport, patient rapport, and motivation. When these highly correlated were combined to produce a four-component model, linear regression demonstrated similar predictive power in terms of final clerkship grade (R2 =0.71, CI95=0.65–0.77 and R2 =0.69, CI95=0.63–0.76 for the full and reduced models respectively. Conclusion: This study revealed that several components of the evaluation card had a high degree of correlation. Combining the correlated items, a reduced model containing four items (clinical skills, interpersonal skills, procedural skills, and documentation was as predictive of the student’s clinical grade as the full 10-item evaluation. Clerkship directors should be aware of the performance of their individual global rating scales when assessing medical student performance, especially if attempting to measure greater than four components.

  9. A case-control study on the combined effects of p53 and p73 polymorphisms on head and neck cancer risk in an Italian population

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gallì, Paola; Boccia, Stefania; Cadoni, Gabriella; Volante, Mariangela; De Feo, Emma; Amore, Rosarita; Giorgio, Arianna; Arzani, Dario; Paludetti, Gaetano; Ricciardi, Gualtiero

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to analyze the combined effects of selected p53 and p73 polymorphisms and their interaction with lifestyle habits on squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck (SCCHN) risk and progression in an Italian population. Two hundred and eighty-three cases and 295 hospital controls were genotyped for p53 polymorphisms on exon 4 (Arg72Pro), intron 3 and 6, and p73 G4C14-to-A4T14. Their association with SCCHN was estimated using a logistic regression analysis, while a multinomial logistic regression approach was applied to calculate the effect of the selected polymorphisms on SCCHN different sites (oral cavity, oropharynx, hypopharynx and larynx). We performed an haplotype analysis of the p53 polymorphisms, and a gene-gene interaction analysis for the combined effects of p73 G4C14-to-A4T14 and p53 polymorphisms. We found a significant increased risk of SCCHN among individuals with combined p73 exon 2 G4A and p53 intron 3 variant alleles (OR = 2.22, 95% CI: 1.08–4.56), and a protective effect for those carrying the p53 exon 4-p53 intron 6 diplotype combination (OR = 0.67; 95% CI: 0.47–0.92). From the gene-environment interaction analysis we found that individuals aged < 45 years carrying p73 exon 2 G4A variant allele have a 12.85-increased risk of SCCHN (95% CI: 2.10–78.74) compared with persons of the same age with the homozygous wild type genotype. Improved survival rate was observed among p53 intron 6 variant allele carriers (Hazard Ratio = 0.51 (95% CI: 0.23–1.16). Our study provides for the first time evidence that individuals carrying p53 exon 4 and p53 intron 6 variant alleles are significantly protected against SCCHN, and also shows that an additional risk is conferred by the combination of p73 exon 2 G4C14-to-A4T14 and p53 intron 3 variant allele. Larger studies are required to confirm these findings

  10. Improved predictive value of GRACE risk score combined with platelet reactivity for 1-year cardiovascular risk in patients with acute coronary syndrome who underwent coronary stent implantation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Shan; Liu, Hongbin; Liu, Jianfeng; Wang, Haijun

    2016-11-01

    Both high platelet reactivity (HPR) and Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) risk score have moderate predictive value for major adverse cardiovascular disease (CVD) events in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) who underwent percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI), whereas the prognostic significance of GRACE risk score combined with platelet function testing remains unclear. A total of 596 patients with non-ST elevation ACS who underwent PCI were enrolled. The P2Y 12 reaction unit (PRU) value was measured by VerifyNow P2Y 12 assay and GRACE score was calculated by GRACE risk 2.0 calculator. Patients were stratified by a pre-specified cutoff value of PRU 230 and GRACE score 140 to assess 1-year risk of cardiovascular death, non-fatal myocardial infarction (MI), and stent thrombosis. Seventy-two (12.1%) patients developed CVD events during 1-year follow-up. Patients with CVD events had a higher PRU value (244.6 ± 50.9 vs. 203.7 ± 52.0, p risk independently. Compared to patients with normal platelet reactivity (NPR) and GRACE score risk (HR: 5.048; 95% CI: 2.268-11.237; p risk score yielded superior risk predictive capacity beyond GRACE score alone, which is shown by improved c-statistic value (0.871, p = 0.002) as well as net reclassification improvement (NRI 0.263, p risk of adverse CVD events. The combination of platelet function testing and GRACE score predicted 1-year CVD risk better.

  11. The Combined Effects of Alcohol, Caffeine and Expectancies on Subjective Experience, Impulsivity and Risk-Taking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heinz, Adrienne J.; de Wit, Harriet; Lilje, Todd C.; Kassel, Jon D.

    2013-01-01

    Caffeinated alcoholic beverage (CAB) consumption is a rapidly growing phenomenon among young adults and is associated with a variety of health-risk behaviors. The current study examined whether either caffeinated alcohol or the expectation of receiving caffeinated alcohol altered affective, cognitive and behavioral outcomes hypothesized to contribute to risk behavior. Young adult social drinkers (N=146) participated in a single session where they received alcohol (peak Breath Alcohol Content = .088 g/dL, SD = .019; equivalent to about 4 standard drinks) and were randomly assigned to one of four further conditions 1) no caffeine, no caffeine expectancy, 2) caffeine and caffeine expectancy, 3) no caffeine but caffeine expectancy, 4) caffeine but no caffeine expectancy. Participants’ habitual CAB consumption was positively correlated with measures of impulsivity and risky behavior, independently of study drugs. Administration of caffeine (mean dose = 220 mg, SD = 38; equivalent to about 2.75 Red Bulls) in the study reduced subjective ratings of intoxication and reversed the decrease in desire to continue drinking, regardless of expectancy. Caffeine also reduced the effect of alcohol on inhibitory reaction time (faster incorrect responses). Participants not expecting caffeine were less attentive after alcohol, whereas participants expecting caffeine were not, regardless of caffeine administration. Alcohol decreased response accuracy in all participants except those who both expected and received caffeine. Findings suggest that CABs may elevate risk for continued drinking by reducing perceived intoxication, and by maintaining the desire to continue drinking. Simply expecting to consume caffeine may reduce the effects of alcohol on inattention, and either expecting or consuming caffeine may protect against other alcohol-related performance decrements. Caffeine, when combined with alcohol, has both beneficial and detrimental effects on mechanisms known to contribute to

  12. Risk-free assets: Are they truly risk-free? A comparative study of South African rates and instruments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oosthuizen, A.V.

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Determining the price of a financial instrument is something that happens every day in the financial markets. Every price starts off with a spot price adjusted for interest until maturity of the particular instrument. The interest is usually described as risk-free interest. The price so determined is the most basic price that an investor is willing to pay if not risk is involved. Risk-free assets, then, are securities of which the future rates of return are known with certainty. An exceptional degree of confidence in the issuer of the security brings about this certainty. Risk-free assets are normally in the fixed income securities (capital markets investment category or in the liquid money market instruments such as treasury bills, category. This study attempts to determine whether the risk-free rates used by treasury managers and traders in South Africa to formulate their bond yield curves and which are used in valuation models, may be deemed risk-free. The study specifies certain criteria that an asset must satisfy in order to be used as a risk-free asset. Short term and long term South African instruments are compared to the US counterpart instruments, to gain an understanding of the South African instruments relative to the US ones. The behaviour of the risk-free instruments used in South Africa is also compared to the FTSE/JSE All Share Index and gold spot prices, which are perceived to be a risky asset classes. To gain some understanding of the behaviour of these instruments, analyses were done from different angles. The standard deviations of the daily percentage changes of the R157 were significantly lower than that of the ALSI and the gold spot price change. Compared to the ALSI and gold spot price, therefore, the R157 may be deemed a “low risk” instrument. The JIBAR was even less volatile that the R157. Interestingly, the US instruments were substantially more risky than the SA instruments over the analysis period. Also the JIBAR

  13. The impact of risk management on internal and sustainable growth rate: Evidence from Tehran Stock Exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hamid Reza Vakili Fard

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Measuring the relative risk of firms has been an open discussion among researchers. There are many studies on learning how leverage may influence on growth of the firms. This article reviews the relationship between risk management, internal and sustainable growth of accepted companies in Tehran stock exchange. The survey considers three types of risks including operating, financial and compound and investigates their relationships with internal growth rate as well as sustainable growth rate. Using some regression techniques, the study has determined negative and meaningful relationships between different types of leverage on side and internal as well as sustainable growth on the other side.

  14. Political Risk and Foreign Exchange Rates: an Efficient-Market Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Jean-Claude Cosset; Bruno Doutriaux de la Rianderie

    1985-01-01

    This paper examines the reaction of the foreign exchange market to the announcement of changes in the business environment of a country. Our results suggest that sampled political risk news conveys important information about a country's investment climate and causes its currency's exchange rate to vary. It appears, however, that the reaction of the foreign exchange market is more dramatic for unfavorable events than for favorable events. The evidence presented is also consisted with the hypo...

  15. Risk analysis of radioactive waste repository based on the time dependent hazard rate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chang, S.H.; Cho, W.J.

    1984-01-01

    For the probabilistic risk analysis of the radioactive high level waste repository, the simplified method based on the time dependent hazard rate is proposed. The obtained results are compared with those from the time independent hazard rate. The estimation of the failure probability of the waste repository through this method gives more conservative results, especially when the half-life of nuclide is larger and retardation factors of nuclide is smaller. (Auth.)

  16. Dry weight assessment by combined ultrasound and bioimpedance monitoring in low cardiovascular risk hemodialysis patients: a randomized controlled trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siriopol, Dimitrie; Onofriescu, Mihai; Voroneanu, Luminita; Apetrii, Mugurel; Nistor, Ionut; Hogas, Simona; Kanbay, Mehmet; Sascau, Radu; Scripcariu, Dragos; Covic, Adrian

    2017-01-01

    Fluid overload is associated with adverse outcomes in hemodialysis (HD) patients. The precise assessment of hydration status in HD patients remains a major challenge for nephrologists. Our study aimed to explore whether combining two bedside methods, lung ultrasonography (LUS) and bioimpedance, may provide complementary information to guide treatment in specific HD patients. In total, 250 HD patients from two dialysis units were included in this randomized clinical trial. Patients were randomized 1:1 to have a dry weight assessment based on clinical (control) or LUS with bioimpedance in case of clinical hypovolemia (active)-guided protocol. The primary outcome was to assess the difference between the two groups on a composite of all-cause mortality and first cardiovascular event (CVE)-including death, stroke, and myocardial infarction. During a mean follow-up period was 21.3 ± 5.6 months, there were 54 (21.6%) composite events in the entire population. There was a nonsignificant 9% increase in the risk of this outcome in the active arm (HR = 1.09, 95% CI 0.64-1.86, p = 0.75). Similarly, there were no differences between the two groups when analyzing separately the all-cause mortality and CVE outcomes. However, patients in the active arm had a 19% lower relative risk of pre-dialytic dyspnea (rate ratio-0.81, 95% CI 0.68-0.96), but a 26% higher relative risk of intradialytic cramps (rate ratio-1.26, 95% CI 1.16-1.37). This study shows that a LUS-bioimpedance-guided dry weight adjustment protocol, as compared to clinical evaluation, does not reduce all-cause mortality and/or CVE in HD patients. A fluid management protocol based on bioimpedance with LUS on indication might be a better strategy.

  17. An international randomised placebo-controlled trial of a four-component combination pill ("polypill" in people with raised cardiovascular risk.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anthony Rodgers

    Full Text Available There has been widespread interest in the potential of combination cardiovascular medications containing aspirin and agents to lower blood pressure and cholesterol ('polypills' to reduce cardiovascular disease. However, no reliable placebo-controlled data are available on both efficacy and tolerability.We conducted a randomised, double-blind placebo-controlled trial of a polypill (containing aspirin 75 mg, lisinopril 10 mg, hydrochlorothiazide 12.5 mg and simvastatin 20 mg in 378 individuals without an indication for any component of the polypill, but who had an estimated 5-year cardiovascular disease risk over 7.5%. The primary outcomes were systolic blood pressure (SBP, LDL-cholesterol and tolerability (proportion discontinued randomised therapy at 12 weeks follow-up.At baseline, mean BP was 134/81 mmHg and mean LDL-cholesterol was 3.7 mmol/L. Over 12 weeks, polypill treatment reduced SBP by 9.9 (95% CI: 7.7 to 12.1 mmHg and LDL-cholesterol by 0.8 (95% CI 0.6 to 0.9 mmol/L. The discontinuation rates in the polypill group compared to placebo were 23% vs 18% (RR 1.33, 95% CI 0.89 to 2.00, p = 0.2. There was an excess of side effects known to the component medicines (58% vs 42%, p = 0.001, which was mostly apparent within a few weeks, and usually did not warrant cessation of trial treatment.This polypill achieved sizeable reductions in SBP and LDL-cholesterol but caused side effects in about 1 in 6 people. The halving in predicted cardiovascular risk is moderately lower than previous estimates and the side effect rate is moderately higher. Nonetheless, substantial net benefits would be expected among patients at high risk.Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry ACTRN12607000099426.

  18. Worst-Case Portfolio Optimization under Stochastic Interest Rate Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tina Engler

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available We investigate a portfolio optimization problem under the threat of a market crash, where the interest rate of the bond is modeled as a Vasicek process, which is correlated with the stock price process. We adopt a non-probabilistic worst-case approach for the height and time of the market crash. On a given time horizon [0; T], we then maximize the investor’s expected utility of terminal wealth in the worst-case crash scenario. Our main result is an explicit characterization of the worst-case optimal portfolio strategy for the class of HARA (hyperbolic absolute risk aversion utility functions.

  19. Measles-mumps-rubella-varicella combination vaccine and the risk of febrile seizures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klein, Nicola P; Fireman, Bruce; Yih, W Katherine; Lewis, Edwin; Kulldorff, Martin; Ray, Paula; Baxter, Roger; Hambidge, Simon; Nordin, James; Naleway, Allison; Belongia, Edward A; Lieu, Tracy; Baggs, James; Weintraub, Eric

    2010-07-01

    In February 2008, we alerted the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices to preliminary evidence of a twofold increased risk of febrile seizures after the combination measles-mumps-rubella-varicella (MMRV) vaccine when compared with separate measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) and varicella vaccines. Now with data on twice as many vaccine recipients, our goal was to reexamine seizure risk after MMRV vaccine. Using 2000-2008 Vaccine Safety Datalink data, we assessed seizures and fever visits among children aged 12 to 23 months after MMRV and separate MMR + varicella vaccines. We compared seizure risk after MMRV vaccine to that after MMR + varicella vaccines by using Poisson regression as well as with supplementary regressions that incorporated chart-review results and self-controlled analyses. MMRV vaccine recipients (83,107) were compared with recipients of MMR + varicella vaccines (376,354). Seizure and fever significantly clustered 7 to 10 days after vaccination with all measles-containing vaccines but not after varicella vaccination alone. Seizure risk during days 7 to 10 was higher after MMRV than after MMR + varicella vaccination (relative risk: 1.98 [95% confidence interval: 1.43-2.73]). Supplementary analyses yielded similar results. The excess risk for febrile seizures 7 to 10 days after MMRV compared with separate MMR + varicella vaccination was 4.3 per 10,000 doses (95% confidence interval: 2.6-5.6). Among 12- to 23-month-olds who received their first dose of measles-containing vaccine, fever and seizure were elevated 7 to 10 days after vaccination. Vaccination with MMRV results in 1 additional febrile seizure for every 2300 doses given instead of separate MMR + varicella vaccines. Providers who recommend MMRV should communicate to parents that it increases the risk of fever and seizure over that already associated with measles-containing vaccines.

  20. Combining MCDA and risk analysis: dealing with scaling issues in the multiplicative AHP

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barfod, Michael Bruhn; van den Honert, Rob; Salling, Kim Bang

    the progression factor 2 is used for calculating scores of alternatives and √2 for calculation of criteria weights when transforming the verbal judgments stemming from pair wise comparisons. However, depending on the decision context, the decision-makers aversion towards risk, etc., it is most likely......This paper proposes a new decision support system (DSS) for applying risk analysis and stochastic simulation to the multiplicative AHP in order to deal with issues concerning the progression factors. The multiplicative AHP makes use of direct rating on a logarithmic scale, and for this purpose...

  1. Low-Dose-Rate Brachytherapy Versus Cryotherapy in Low- and Intermediate-Risk Prostate Cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gestaut, Matthew M; Cai, Wendi; Vyas, Shilpa; Patel, Belur J; Hasan, Salman A; MunozMaldonado, Yolanda; Deb, Niloyjyoti; Swanson, Gregory

    2017-05-01

    Cryotherapy and brachytherapy are definitive local treatment options for low- to intermediate-risk prostate cancer. There are both prospective and retrospective data for brachytherapy, but the use of cryotherapy has been limited primarily to single-institution retrospective studies. Currently, no published evidence has compared low-dose-rate brachytherapy versus cryotherapy. Institutional review board approval was obtained to conduct a retrospective chart review of consecutive patients treated at our institution from 1990 to 2012. For inclusion, patients must have received a prostate cancer diagnosis and have been considered to have low- to intermediate-risk disease according to the National Comprehensive Cancer Network criteria. All patients received brachytherapy or cryotherapy treatment. Disease specifics and failure details were collected for all patients. Failure was defined as prostate-specific antigen nadir +2 ng/mL. A total of 359 patients were analyzed. The groups comprised 50 low-risk cryotherapy (LRC), 92 intermediate-risk cryotherapy (IRC), 133 low-risk brachytherapy (LRB), and 84 intermediate-risk brachytherapy (IRB) patients. The median prostate-specific antigen follow-up periods were 85.6 months (LRC), 59.2 months (IRC), 74.9 months (LRB), and 59.8 months (IRB). The 5-year biochemical progression-free survival (bPFS) rate was 57.9% in the cryotherapy group versus 89.6% in the brachytherapy group (Pcryotherapy for low- and intermediate-risk groups (Pcryotherapy patients was -35°C (range, -96°C to -6°C). Cryotherapy used a median of 2 freeze-thaw cycles (range, 2-4 freeze-thaw cycles). Results from this study suggest that cryotherapy is inferior to brachytherapy for patients with low- to intermediate-risk prostate cancer. Patient selection criteria for consideration of cryotherapy and brachytherapy are similar in terms of anesthesia candidacy. Therefore, cryotherapy would not be recommended as a first-line local therapy for this particular

  2. Combined impact of healthy lifestyle factors on risk of atrial fibrillation: Prospective study in men and women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larsson, Susanna C; Drca, Nikola; Jensen-Urstad, Mats; Wolk, Alicja

    2016-01-15

    The combined impact of multiple lifestyle factors on risk of atrial fibrillation (AF) remains unclear. We investigated the joint association of four modifiable lifestyle factors on incidence of AF in a prospective study of men and women. The study cohort comprised 39 300 men in the Cohort of Swedish Men and 33 090 women in the Swedish Mammography Cohort who were 45-83 years of age and free from atrial fibrillation at baseline. Healthy lifestyle was defined as body mass index healthy lifestyle factors, the multivariable relative risks (95% confidence interval) of AF were 0.83 (0.65-1.07) for one, 0.74 (0.58-0.94) for two, 0.62 (0.49-0.79) for three, and 0.50 (0.39-0.64) for four healthy lifestyle factors (P for trend healthy lifestyle factors combined were associated with a halving of the risk of AF. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Azacitidine-lenalidomide (ViLen) combination yields a high response rate in higher risk myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS)-ViLen-01 protocol.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mittelman, Moshe; Filanovsky, Kalman; Ofran, Yishai; Rosenbaum, Hanna; Raanani, Pia; Braester, Andrei; Goldschmidt, Neta; Kirgner, Ilya; Herishanu, Yair; Perri, Chava; Ellis, Martin; Oster, Howard S

    2016-10-01

    Azacitidine treatment is effective in higher risk MDS (HR-MDS), with less than 50 % response, lasting 2 years. Aza and lenalidomide (Len) have a potential synergistic effect. ViLen-01 phase IIa trial includes 6-month induction (Aza 75 mg/m(2)/day, days 1-5, Len 10 mg/day, days 6-21, every 28 days), 6-month consolidation (Aza 75 mg/m(2)/day, days 1-5, every 28 days), and 12-month maintenance (Len 10 mg/day, days 1-21, every 28 days). Response was evaluated according to IWG criteria. Totally, 25 patients enrolled, with an average of 76.3 years old (60-87), and 88 % with major comorbidities. Thirteen patients completed induction, 7 proceeded for consolidation, and 2 for maintenance. The overall response rate (ORR) was 72 % (18/25), with 6 (24 %) for CR, 3 (12 %) for marrow CR, and 9 (36 %) for hematologic improvement (HI). The 7 non-responding patients were on the study 3 days to 4.1 months. At 6 months, 4 of 6 evaluable patients achieved complete cytogenetic response and 2 with del (5q) at diagnosis. Adverse events (AEs) were as expected in these patients: grades III-IV, mainly hematologic-thrombocytopenia (20 patients) and neutropenia (13 patients). The common non-hematologic AEs were infections (14 patients), nausea (7), vomiting (7), diarrhea (7), and skin reactions (5). The median progression-free survival (PFS) was 12 ± 1.36 months, with median overall survival (OS) of 12 ± 1.7 months. Quality of life (FACT questionnaire) data were available for 12 patients with a tendency towards improved QoL. This trial with elderly HR-MDS patients with an expected poor prognosis demonstrates a high (72 %) response rate and a reasonable expected safety profile but a relatively short PFS and OS.

  4. Trends in Respiratory Syncytial Virus and Bronchiolitis Hospitalization Rates in High-Risk Infants in a United States Nationally Representative Database, 1997-2012.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abigail Doucette

    Full Text Available Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV causes significant pediatric morbidity and is the most common cause of bronchiolitis. Bronchiolitis hospitalizations declined among US infants from 2000‒2009; however, rates in infants at high risk for RSV have not been described. This study examined RSV and unspecified bronchiolitis (UB hospitalization rates from 1997‒2012 among US high-risk infants.The Kids' Inpatient Database (KID infant annual RSV (ICD-9 079.6, 466.11, 480.1 and UB (ICD-9 466.19, 466.1 hospitalization rates were estimated using weighted counts. Denominators were based on birth hospitalizations with conditions associated with high-risk for RSV: chronic perinatal respiratory disease (chronic lung disease [CLD]; congenital airway anomalies (CAA; congenital heart disease (CHD; Down syndrome (DS; and other genetic, metabolic, musculoskeletal, and immunodeficiency conditions. Preterm infants could not be identified. Hospitalizations were characterized by mechanical ventilation, inpatient mortality, length of stay, and total cost (2015$. Poisson and linear regression were used to test statistical significance of trends.RSV and UB hospitalization rates were substantially elevated for infants with higher-risk CHD, CLD, CAA and DS without CHD compared with all infants. RSV rates declined by 47.0% in CLD and 49.7% in higher-risk CHD infants; no other declines in high-risk groups were observed. UB rates increased in all high-risk groups except for a 22.5% decrease among higher-risk CHD. Among high-risk infants, mechanical ventilation increased through 2012 to 20.4% and 13.5% of RSV and UB hospitalizations; geometric mean cost increased to $31,742 and $25,962, respectively, and RSV mortality declined to 0.9%.Among high-risk infants between 1997 and 2012, RSV hospitalization rates declined among CLD and higher-risk CHD infants, coincident with widespread RSV immunoprophylaxis use in these populations. UB hospitalization rates increased in all high-risk

  5. Risk Factors Influencing Conception Rate in Holstein Heifers before Artificial Insemination or Embryo Transfer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Yusuf

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to show the risk factors affecting the conception rate in Holstein heifers after synchronization of estrus. A total of 275 Holstein heifers housed in a free barn were used for the experiment. The herd was visited regularly at four week intervals for synchronization of estrus using Heatsynch and CIDR-Heatsynch protocols. A group of four to 14 animals, depending on the availability, were referred to the experiment at each visit. Estrus induction rates in the two protocols were 93.9% and 94.9%, respectively. There was no difference in the conception rate between the two protocols. Conception rate after artificial insemination (AI or embryo transfer (ET were 46.3% and 51.4%, respectively. The risk factors affecting conception rate in heifers were daily weight gain (odds ratio [OR]= 4.673; P= 0.036 and body condition score (BCS (OR= 3.642; P= 0.018. Furthermore, estrus synchronization protocol (OR= 1.774; P= 0.083 and the absence of corpus luteum (CL at the initiation of treatment (OR= 0.512; P= 0.061 had a tendency to affect the conception rate, while age (OR= 0.715; P= 0.008 was a protective factor to conception rate.  In conclusion, positive daily weight gain before AI or ET, higher BCS, younger age, and the presence of CL at the initiation of estrus synchronization in dairy heifers increased the likelihood to conceive.

  6. Rates of adult acute inpatients documented as at risk of refeeding syndrome by dietitians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Owers, Emma L; Reeves, Anneli I; Ko, Susan Y; Ellis, Aleshia K; Huxtable, Shannon L; Noble, Sally A; Porteous, Helen E; Newman, Eli J; Josephson, Christine A; Roth, Rachel A; Byrne, Clare E; Palmer, Michelle A

    2015-02-01

    Identification of Refeeding Syndrome (RFS) is vital for prevention and treatment of metabolic disturbances, yet no information exists that describes identification rates by dietitians in acute care. We aimed to describe rates and demographics of inpatients identified by dietitians as at-risk of RFS and factors associated with electrolyte levels post-dietetic assessment. Eligible participants were adult (≥ 18 yrs) acute care inpatients reviewed by dietitians between March 2012-February 2013 and not admitted to intensive care prior to first dietetic assessment. Patient information was sourced from medical charts. Chi-squared, t-tests and linear regression analyses were conducted. Of 1661 eligible inpatients (55%F, 65 ± 18 yrs), 9% (n = 151) were documented as at-risk of RFS in the first dietetic medical chart entry. On average, patients identified with RFS-risk had four days greater hospital stay, were 13 kg lighter, more likely classified SGA C (36% vs. 7%), and on a modified diet (52% vs. 35%) than non-RFS patients (p < 0.05). Very low and low electrolyte values occurred within seven days post-dietetic assessment in 7% and 52%, respectively, of inpatients with RFS-risk. Regression analysis showed that electrolyte supplementation was positively associated (β = 0.145-0.594), and number of RFS-related risk factors negatively associated (β = -0.044-0.122), with potassium, magnesium and phosphate levels within seven days post-dietetic assessment (p < 0.05). Nine percent of adult inpatients were documented as at-risk of RFS by dietitians. Identification of at-risk patients was in accordance with RFS guidelines. Electrolyte supplementation was positively associated with electrolyte levels post-assessment. Consistency of RFS-risk identification between dietitians requires determination. Crown Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. RISK LOAN PORTFOLIO OPTIMIZATION MODEL BASED ON CVAR RISK MEASURE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming-Chang LEE

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available In order to achieve commercial banks liquidity, safety and profitability objective requirements, loan portfolio risk analysis based optimization decisions are rational allocation of assets.  The risk analysis and asset allocation are the key technology of banking and risk management.  The aim of this paper, build a loan portfolio optimization model based on risk analysis.  Loan portfolio rate of return by using Value-at-Risk (VaR and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR constraint optimization decision model reflects the bank's risk tolerance, and the potential loss of direct control of the bank.  In this paper, it analyze a general risk management model applied to portfolio problems with VaR and CVaR risk measures by using Using the Lagrangian Algorithm.  This paper solves the highly difficult problem by matrix operation method.  Therefore, the combination of this paper is easy understanding the portfolio problems with VaR and CVaR risk model is a hyperbola in mean-standard deviation space.  It is easy calculation in proposed method.

  8. Combined Risk Measures: Representation Results and Applications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Göttsche, O.E.

    2014-01-01

    The analysis and interpretation of risk play a crucial role in different areas of modern finance. This includes pricing of financial products, capital allocation and derivation of economic capital. Key to this analysis is the quantification of the risk via risk measures. A promising approach is to

  9. A NEW LOOK AT THE TRADE VOLUME EFFECTS OF REAL EXCHANGE RATE RISK

    OpenAIRE

    Wang, Kai-Li; Barrett, Christopher B.

    2002-01-01

    This paper takes a new empirical look at the longstanding question of the effect of exchange rate volatility on international trade flows by studying the case of Taiwan's exports to the United States from 1989-1998. In particular, we employ sectoral level, monthly data and a multivariate GARCH-M estimator with corrections for leptokurtic errors that is consistent with the core hypothesis that traders' forward contracting behavior might be affected by exchange rate risk. We find that real exch...

  10. Combined oral contraceptives, thrombophilia and the risk of venous thromboembolism : a systematic review and meta-analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Vlijmen, E. F. W.; Wiewel-Verschueren, S.; Monster, T. B. M.; Meijer, K.

    Background Combined oral contraceptives (COCs) are associated with an increased risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE), which is shown to be more pronounced in women with hereditary thrombophilia. Currently, WHO recommendations state that COC-use in women with hereditary thrombophilias (antithrombin

  11. Penilaian Tingkat Kesehatan Bank Dengan Menggunakan Pendekatan Risiko (Risk-Based Bank Rating

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Masnawati .

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available This  study  aimed  to  analyze  techniques  of  the  bank’s  health  assessment  and determine  which  strategies  should  be  done  in  order  to  improve  the  health  of the bank. The method used is the approach of Risk (Risk Based-Bank Rating in accordance with Bank Indonesia Regulation on Rating Bank that PBI Number: 13/1/PBI/2011  which  entered  into  force  on  January  1,  2012.  Bank  health assessment  performed  using  four  (4  factors:  Risk  Profile,  Good  Corporate Governance (GCG, Earning, and Capital. Object  of  this  study  is  PT.  Bank  Pembangunan  Daerah  Kalimantan  Selatan period  2012.  The  results  showed  that  the  health  of  banks  in  PT.  Bank Pembangunan  Daerah  Kalimantan  Selatan  getting  ranked  2,  meaning  can be  categorized  good.  Strategies  to  improve  the  health  value  of  a  bank  is  to improve aspects of Earnings and Capital. Strategis Steps that must to increase credit expansion, improve the quality and quantity of human resources, product innovation, and increase fee-based income. Keywords: Healthy  banks,  Risk  Profile,  Good  Corporate  Governance  (GCG,  Earnings, Capital

  12. Modified Exponential (MOE) Models: statistical Models for Risk Estimation of Low dose Rate Radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ogata, H.; Furukawa, C.; Kawakami, Y.; Magae, J.

    2004-01-01

    Simultaneous inclusion of dose and dose-rate is required to evaluate the risk of long term irradiation at low dose-rates, since biological responses to radiation are complex processes that depend both on irradiation time and total dose. Consequently, it is necessary to consider a model including cumulative dose,dose-rate and irradiation time to estimate quantitative dose-response relationship on the biological response to radiation. In this study, we measured micronucleus formation and (3H) thymidine uptake in U2OS, human osteosarcoma cell line, as indicators of biological response to gamma radiation. Cells were exposed to gamma ray in irradiation room bearing 50,000 Ci 60Co. After irradiation, they were cultured for 24h in the presence of cytochalasin B to block cytokinesis, and cytoplasm and nucleus were stained with DAPI and propidium iodide. The number of binuclear cells bearing a micronucleus was counted under a florescence microscope. For proliferation inhibition, cells were cultured for 48 h after the irradiation and (3h) thymidine was pulsed for 4h before harvesting. We statistically analyzed the data for quantitative evaluation of radiation risk at low dose/dose-rate. (Author)

  13. [Indications for the combination of pravastatin and fenofibrate according to the cardiovascular risk level. Common clinical situations].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pintó, Xavier

    2014-07-01

    In diabetes, metabolic syndrome, some types of familial dyslipidemia, ischemic pathology of atheromatous origin and renal failure, the presence of mixed dyslipidemia is common. In other words, there is an excess of cholesterol and triglycerides, associated or not with HDL-c deficiency. These clinical conditions are associated with high to very high cardiovascular risk. It is appropriate when treating these conditions to achieve an overall control of lipid metabolism abnormalities, in terms of excess cholesterol carried by atherogenic lipoproteins (LDL-c and non-HDL-c) and triglyceride excess and deficit of HDL-c. To achieve this overall control is necessary to correct the potential causes of secondary dyslipidemia, improve lifestyle habits and use a drug from the statin family, and it is often necessary to combine a drug from the fibrate family. This combination has been shown to be effective and safe in the overall control of dyslipidemia and the cardiovascular risk prevention in patients at high risk. This combination has been shown to have a favorable eff ect in the population with diabetes and microangiopathy, both in the retina and in the glomerulus. For patients with moderate renal failure, the use of fibrates is controversial, and there are marked disagreements between the recommendations issued by various organizations and expert consensus groups. Copyright © 2014 Sociedad Española de Arteriosclerosis y Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

  14. Risk of inflammatory bowel disease according to self-rated health, pregnancy course, and pregnancy complications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harpsøe, Maria C; Jørgensen, Kristian Tore; Frisch, Morten

    2013-01-01

    Poor self-rated health (SRH) has been connected to immunological changes, and pregnancy complications have been suggested in the etiology of autoimmune diseases including inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). We evaluated the impact of self-rated pre-pregnancy health and pregnancy course, hyperemesis......, gestational hypertension, and preeclampsia on risk of IBD....

  15. Evolution of human cytomegalovirus-seronegative donor/-seropositive recipient high-risk combination frequency in allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantations at Institute of Hematology and Blood Transfusion during 1995-2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nemeckova, S; Sroller, V; Stastna-Markova, M

    2016-04-01

    Human cytomegalovirus (HCMV) establishes lifelong latent infection that can result in severe life-threatening disease in immunosuppressed patients after hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT). An HCMV-seropositive transplant recipient who receives a graft from a seronegative donor (R+/D-) is at high risk of recurrent HCMV reactivation. To assess the incidence of R+/D- combination, we retrospectively evaluated HCMV-seronegative donors for 746 allogeneic HSCT treatments carried out at our center during 1995-2014. In our cohort, 20% HCMV-seronegative HSCT recipients, 21% HCMV-seronegative related graft donors, and 52% HCMV-seronegative unrelated graft donors were included. Analyses of the HCMV serostatus of hematopoietic stem cell donors during 2 consecutive calendar periods (1995-2005 and 2006-2014) showed a significant increase in the proportion of seronegative donors (odds ratio [OR] = 1.947). In addition, the number of HSCT treatments using an unrelated donor increased (OR = 2.376). Finally, the use of grafts from countries with a very low HCMV prevalence increased. This increase in HCMV seronegativity in unrelated donors and the increased proportion of unrelated donors were responsible for the increased occurrence of the high-risk combination R+/D- (OR = 1.680). If the reduction in the rate of HCMV-seropositive graft donors continues, an increased frequency of HCMV reactivation events in our transplant recipients can be expected, because of the increasing occurrence of the high-risk R+/D- combination. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  16. Risk factors and outcomes of high peritonitis rate in continuous ambulatory peritoneal dialysis patients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Yuanshi; Xie, Xishao; Xiang, Shilong; Yang, Xin; Zhang, Xiaohui; Shou, Zhangfei; Chen, Jianghua

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Peritonitis remains a major complication of peritoneal dialysis (PD). A high peritonitis rate (HPR) affects continuous ambulatory peritoneal dialysis (CAPD) patients’ technique survival and mortality. Predictors and outcomes of HPR, rather than the first peritonitis episode, were rarely studied in the Chinese population. In this study, we examined the risk factors associated with HPR and its effects on clinical outcomes in CAPD patients. This is a single center, retrospective, observational cohort study. A total of 294 patients who developing at least 1 episode of peritonitis were followed up from March 1st, 2002, to July 31, 2014, in our PD center. Multivariate logistic regression was used to determine the factors associated with HPR, and the Cox proportional hazard model was conducted to assess the effects of HPR on clinical outcomes. During the study period of 2917.5 patient-years, 489 episodes of peritonitis were recorded, and the total peritonitis rate was 0.168 episodes per patient-year. The multivariate analysis showed that factors associated with HPR include a quick occurrence of peritonitis after CAPD initiation (shorter than 12 months), and a low serum albumin level at the start of CAPD. In the Cox proportional hazard model, HPR was a significant predictor of technique failure. There were no differences between HPR and low peritonitis rate (LPR) group for all-cause mortality. However, when the peritonitis rate was considered as a continuous variable, a positive correlation was observed between the peritonitis rate and mortality. We found the quick peritonitis occurrence after CAPD and the low serum albumin level before CAPD were strongly associated with an HPR. Also, our results verified that HPR was positively correlated with technique failure. More importantly, the increase in the peritonitis rate suggested a higher risk of all-cause mortality. These results may help to identify and target patients who are at higher risk of HPR at the start

  17. Trends in state-level freight accident rates: An enhancement of risk factor development for RADTRAN

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saricks, C.; Kvitek, T.

    1991-01-01

    Under the Nuclear Waste Policy Act, the Department of Energy's Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM) is concerned with understanding and managing risk as it applies to the shipment of spent commercial nuclear reactor fuel. Understanding risk in relation to mode and geography may provide opportunities to minimize radiological and non-radiological risks of transportation. To enhance such an understanding, a set of state-or waterway-specific accident, fatality, and injury rates (expressed as rates per shipment kilometer) by transportation mode and highway administrative class was developed, using publicly-available data bases. Adjustments made to accommodate miscoded or incomplete information in accident data are described, as well as the procedures for estimating state-level flow data. Results indicate that the shipping conditions under which spent fuel is likely to be transported should be less subject to accidents than the ''average'' shipment within mode. 10 refs., 3 tabs

  18. Why 'Optimal' Payment for Healthcare Providers Can Never be Optimal Under Community Rating.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zweifel, Peter; Frech, H E

    2016-02-01

    This article extends the existing literature on optimal provider payment by accounting for consumer heterogeneity in preferences for health insurance and healthcare. This heterogeneity breaks down the separation of the relationship between providers and the health insurer and the relationship between consumers and the insurer. Both experimental and market evidence for a high degree of heterogeneity are presented. Given heterogeneity, a uniform policy fails to effectively control moral hazard, while incentives for risk selection created by community rating cannot be neutralized through risk adjustment. Consumer heterogeneity spills over into relationships with providers, such that a uniform contract with providers also cannot be optimal. The decisive condition for ensuring optimality of provider payment is to replace community rating (which violates the principle of marginal cost pricing) with risk rating of contributions combined with subsidization targeted at high risks with low incomes.

  19. State infant mortality: an ecologic study to determine modifiable risks and adjusted infant mortality rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paul, David A; Mackley, Amy; Locke, Robert G; Stefano, John L; Kroelinger, Charlan

    2009-05-01

    To determine factors contributing to state infant mortality rates (IMR) and develop an adjusted IMR in the United States for 2001 and 2002. Ecologic study of factors contributing to state IMR. State IMR for 2001 and 2002 were obtained from the United States linked death and birth certificate data from the National Center for Health Statistics. Factors investigated using multivariable linear regression included state racial demographics, ethnicity, state population, median income, education, teen birth rate, proportion of obesity, smoking during pregnancy, diabetes, hypertension, cesarean delivery, prenatal care, health insurance, self-report of mental illness, and number of in-vitro fertilization procedures. Final risk adjusted IMR's were standardized and states were compared with the United States adjusted rates. Models for IMR in individual states in 2001 (r2 = 0.66, P < 0.01) and 2002 (r2 = 0.81, P < 0.01) were tested. African-American race, teen birth rate, and smoking during pregnancy remained independently associated with state infant mortality rates for 2001 and 2002. Ninety five percent confidence intervals (CI) were calculated around the regression lines to model the expected IMR. After adjustment, some states maintained a consistent IMR; for instance, Vermont and New Hampshire remained low, while Delaware and Louisiana remained high. However, other states such as Mississippi, which have traditionally high infant mortality rates, remained within the expected 95% CI for IMR after adjustment indicating confounding affected the initial unadjusted rates. Non-modifiable demographic variables, including the percentage of non-Hispanic African-American and Hispanic populations of the state are major factors contributing to individual variation in state IMR. Race and ethnicity may confound or modify the IMR in states that shifted inside or outside the 95% CI following adjustment. Other factors including smoking during pregnancy and teen birth rate, which are

  20. Kaposi Sarcoma Risk in HIV-Infected Children and Adolescents on Combination Antiretroviral Therapy From Sub-Saharan Africa, Europe, and Asia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rohner, Eliane; Schmidlin, Kurt; Zwahlen, Marcel; Chakraborty, Rana; Clifford, Gary; Obel, Niels; Grabar, Sophie; Verbon, Annelies; Noguera-Julian, Antoni; Collins, Intira Jeannie; Rojo, Pablo; Brockmeyer, Norbert; Campbell, Maria; Chêne, Geneviève; Prozesky, Hans; Eley, Brian; Stefan, D Cristina; Davidson, Alan; Chimbetete, Cleophas; Sawry, Shobna; Davies, Mary-Ann; Kariminia, Azar; Vibol, Ung; Sohn, Annette; Egger, Matthias; Bohlius, Julia

    2016-11-01

    The burden of Kaposi sarcoma (KS) in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected children and adolescents on combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) has not been compared globally. We analyzed cohort data from the International Epidemiologic Databases to Evaluate AIDS and the Collaboration of Observational HIV Epidemiological Research in Europe. We included HIV-infected children aged origin, sex, cART start year, age, and HIV/AIDS stage at cART initiation. We included 24 991 children from eastern Africa, southern Africa, Europe and Asia; 26 developed KS after starting cART. Incidence rates per 100 000 person-years (PYs) were 86 in eastern Africa (95% confidence interval [CI], 55-133), 11 in southern Africa (95% CI, 4-35), and 81 (95% CI, 26-252) in children of sub-Saharan African (SSA) origin in Europe. The KS incidence rates were 0/100 000 PYs in children of non-SSA origin in Europe (95% CI, 0-50) and in Asia (95% CI, 0-27). KS risk was lower in girls than in boys (adjusted HR [aHR], 0.3; 95% CI, .1-.9) and increased with age (10-15 vs 0-4 years; aHR, 3.4; 95% CI, 1.2-10.1) and advanced HIV/AIDS stage (CDC stage C vs A/B; aHR, 2.4; 95% CI, .8-7.3) at cART initiation. HIV-infected children from SSA but not those from other regions, have a high risk of developing KS after cART initiation. Early cART initiation in these children might reduce KS risk. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail journals.permissions@oup.com.

  1. The Credit-Risk Decision Mechanism on Fixed Loan Interest Rate with Imperfect Information

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    In this paper, decision mechanism of credit-risk for banks is studied when the loan interest rate is fixed with asymmetry information in credit market. We give out the designs of rationing and non-rationing on credit risky decision mechanism when collateral value provided by an entrepreneur is not less than the minimum demands of the bank. It shows that under the action of the mechanism, banks could efficiently identify the risk size of the project. Finally, the condition of the project investigation of bank is given over again.

  2. Single and combined metal contamination in coastal environments in China: current status and potential ecological risk evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manzoor, Romana; Zhang, Tingwan; Zhang, Xuejiao; Wang, Min; Pan, Jin-Fen; Wang, Zhumei; Zhang, Bo

    2018-01-01

    With the development of industrialization and urbanization, metal and metalloid pollution is one of the most serious environmental problems in China. Current contamination status of metals and metalloid and their potential ecological risks along China's coasts were reviewed in the present paper by a comprehensive study on metal contents in marine waters and sediments in the past few decades. The priority metals/metalloid cadmium (Cd), mercury (Hg), chromium (Cr), lead (Pb), and arsenic (As), which were the target elements of the designated project "Comprehensive Prevention and Control of Heavy Metal Pollution" issued by the Chinese government in 2011, were selected considering their high toxicity, persistence, and prevalent existence in coastal environment. Commonly used environmental quality evaluation methods for single and combined metals were compared, and we accordingly suggest the comprehensive approach of joint utilization of the Enrichment Factor and Effect Range Median combined with Pollution Load Index and Mean Effect Range Median Quotient (EEPME); this battery of guidelines may provide consistent, internationally comparable, and accurate understanding of the environment pollution status of combined metals/metalloid and their potential ecological risk.

  3. Indications for and results of combined modality treatment of colorectal cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gunderson, L.L.

    1999-01-01

    Combined modality chemoirradiation is commonly used as a component of treatment in combination with maximum resection for both high-risk resectable and locally advanced primary or recurrent rectal cancers. With surgically resected but high-risk rectal cancers, postoperative chemoirradiation has been shown to improve both disease control (local and distant) and survival (disease-free and overall) and was recommended as standard adjuvant treatment at the 1990 National Institute of Health (NIH) Consensus Conference on Adjuvant treatment for patients with rectal and colon cancers. Subsequent intergroup trials are being conducted to help define optimal combinations of postoperative chemoirradiation for resected high-risk rectal cancers and to test sequencing issues of preoperative versus postoperative chemoirradiation. With locally unresectable primary or recurrent colorectal cancers, standard therapy with surgery, external beam irradiation (EBRT) and chemotherapy is often unsuccessful. When intraoperative electron irradiation (IOERT) is combined with standard treatment, local control and survival appear to be improved in separate analyses from the Mayo Clinic and the Massachusetts General Hospital (MGH). However, routine use of systemic therapy is also needed as a component of treatment, in view of high rates of systemic failure. (orig.)

  4. Indications for and results of combined modality treatment of colorectal cancer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gunderson, L.L. [Mayo Medical School and Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN (United States)

    1999-05-01

    Combined modality chemoirradiation is commonly used as a component of treatment in combination with maximum resection for both high-risk resectable and locally advanced primary or recurrent rectal cancers. With surgically resected but high-risk rectal cancers, postoperative chemoirradiation has been shown to improve both disease control (local and distant) and survival (disease-free and overall) and was recommended as standard adjuvant treatment at the 1990 National Institute of Health (NIH) Consensus Conference on Adjuvant treatment for patients with rectal and colon cancers. Subsequent intergroup trials are being conducted to help define optimal combinations of postoperative chemoirradiation for resected high-risk rectal cancers and to test sequencing issues of preoperative versus postoperative chemoirradiation. With locally unresectable primary or recurrent colorectal cancers, standard therapy with surgery, external beam irradiation (EBRT) and chemotherapy is often unsuccessful. When intraoperative electron irradiation (IOERT) is combined with standard treatment, local control and survival appear to be improved in separate analyses from the Mayo Clinic and the Massachusetts General Hospital (MGH). However, routine use of systemic therapy is also needed as a component of treatment, in view of high rates of systemic failure. (orig.)

  5. THE MANAGEMENT OF CREDIT RISK ACCORDING TO INTERNAL RATINGS- BASED APPROACH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    BOLOCAN DRAGOS-MIHAIL

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available The internal ratings based approach (IRB Approach was created as part of Basel II replacing the original Basle Accord of 1988 (Basle I in an effort to create a better framework for regulating bank capital. This paper covers the methodology and components of the IRB Approach used to determine capital requirements for credit risk. Such an approach, which relies heavily upon a banks internal assessment of its counterparties and exposures, can secure two key objectives consistent with those which support the wider review of The New Basel Capital Accord.. IRB approach should promote safety and soundness in the financial system and, consistent with providing incentive compatibility, that the structure and requirements of the IRB approach do not impinge upon or undermine banks well-established lending and credit risk management practices

  6. Statewide prevalence of school children at risk of anaphylaxis and rate of adrenaline autoinjector activation in Victorian government schools, Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loke, Paxton; Koplin, Jennifer; Beck, Cara; Field, Michael; Dharmage, Shyamali C; Tang, Mimi L K; Allen, Katrina J

    2016-08-01

    The prevalence of school students at risk of anaphylaxis in Victoria is unknown and has not been previously studied. Similarly, rates of adrenaline autoinjector usage in the school environment have yet to be determined given increasing prescription rates. We sought to determine time trends in prevalence of school children at risk of anaphylaxis across all year levels and the annual usage rate of adrenaline autoinjectors in the school setting relative to the number of students at risk of anaphylaxis. Statewide surveys from more than 1,500 government schools including more than 550,000 students were used and prevalence rates (%) with 95% CIs were calculated. The overall prevalence of students at risk of anaphylaxis has increased 41% from 0.98% (95% CI, 0.95-1.01) in 2009 to 1.38% (95% CI, 1.35-1.41) in 2014. There was a significant drop in reporting of anaphylaxis risk with transition from the final year of primary school to the first year of secondary school, suggesting a change in parental reporting of anaphylaxis risk among secondary school students. The number of adrenaline autoinjectors activated per 1000 students at risk of anaphylaxis ranged from 6 to 8 per year, with consistently higher activation use in secondary school students than in primary school students. Statewide prevalence of anaphylaxis risk has increased in children attending Victorian government schools. However, adrenaline autoinjector activation has remained fairly stable despite known increase in the rates of prescription. Copyright © 2016 American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Combined effect of whole-body vibration and ambient lighting on human discomfort, heart rate, and reaction time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monazzam, Mohammad Reza; Shoja, Esmaeil; Zakerian, Seyed Abolfazl; Foroushani, Abbas Rahimi; Shoja, Mohsen; Gharaee, Masoumeh; Asgari, Amin

    2018-03-12

    This study aimed to investigate the effect of whole-body vibration and ambient lighting, as well as their combined effect on human discomfort, heart rate, and reaction time in laboratory conditions. 44 men were recruited with an average age of 25.4 ± 1.9 years. Each participant was subjected to 12 experimental steps, each step lasting five minutes for four different vibration accelerations in X, Y, and Z axes at a fixed frequency; three different lighting intensities of 50, 500, and 1000 lx were also considered. At each step, a visual computerized reaction test was taken from subjects and their heart rate recorded by pulse oximeter. In addition, the discomfort rate of subjects was measured using Borg scale. Increasing vibration acceleration significantly increased the discomfort rate and heart beat but not the reaction time. Lack of lighting caused more discomfort in the subjects, but there was no significant correlation between lighting intensity with heart rate and reaction time. The results also showed that the combined effect of vibration and lighting had no significant effect on any of the discomfort, heart rate, and reaction time variables. Whole-body vibration is an important factor in the development of human subjective and physiological reactions compared to lighting. Therefore, consideration of the level of vibration to which an individual is exposed in workplaces subject to vibration plays an important role in reducing the level of human discomfort, but its interaction with ambient lighting does not have a significant effect on human subjective and physiological responses.

  8. Combined effects of socioeconomic position, smoking, and hypertension on risk of ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nordahl, Helene; Osler, Merete; Frederiksen, Birgitte Lidegaard

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Combined effects of socioeconomic position and well-established risk factors on stroke incidence have not been formally investigated. METHODS: In a pooled cohort study of 68 643 men and women aged 30 to 70 years in Denmark, we examined the combined effect and interaction...... between socioeconomic position (ie, education), smoking, and hypertension on ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke incidence by the use of the additive hazards model. RESULTS: During 14 years of follow-up, 3613 ischemic strokes and 776 hemorrhagic strokes were observed. Current smoking and hypertension were...... more prevalent among those with low education. Low versus high education was associated with greater ischemic, but not hemorrhagic, stroke incidence. The combined effect of low education and current smoking was more than expected by the sum of their separate effects on ischemic stroke incidence...

  9. Gender differences in the predictive role of self-rated health on short-term risk of mortality among older adults

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shervin Assari

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: Despite the well-established association between self-rated health and mortality, research findings have been inconsistent regarding how men and women differ on this link. Using a national sample in the United States, this study compared American male and female older adults for the predictive role of baseline self-rated health on the short-term risk of mortality. Methods: This longitudinal study followed 1500 older adults (573 men (38.2% and 927 women (61.8% aged 66 years or older for 3 years from 2001 to 2004. The main predictor of interest was self-rated health, which was measured using a single item in 2001. The outcome was the risk of all-cause mortality during the 3-year follow-up period. Demographic factors (race and age, socio-economic factors (education and marital status, and health behaviors (smoking and drinking were covariates. Gender was the focal moderator. We ran logistic regression models in the pooled sample and also stratified by gender, with self-rated health treated as either nominal variables, poor compared to other levels (i.e. fair, good, or excellent or excellent compared to other levels (i.e. good, fair, or poor, or an ordinal variable. Results: In the pooled sample, baseline self-rated health predicted mortality risk, regardless of how the variable was treated. We found a significant interaction between gender and poor self-rated health, indicating a stronger effect of poor self-rated health on mortality risk for men compared to women. Gender did not interact with excellent self-rated health on mortality. Conclusion: Perceived poor self-rated health better reflects risk of mortality over a short period of time for older men compared to older women. Clinicians may need to take poor self-rated health of older men very seriously. Future research should test whether the differential predictive validity of self-rated health based on gender is due to a different meaning of poor self-rated health for older men

  10. Standardized error severity score (ESS) ratings to quantify risk associated with child restraint system (CRS) and booster seat misuse.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rudin-Brown, Christina M; Kramer, Chelsea; Langerak, Robin; Scipione, Andrea; Kelsey, Shelley

    2017-11-17

    Although numerous research studies have reported high levels of error and misuse of child restraint systems (CRS) and booster seats in experimental and real-world scenarios, conclusions are limited because they provide little information regarding which installation issues pose the highest risk and thus should be targeted for change. Beneficial to legislating bodies and researchers alike would be a standardized, globally relevant assessment of the potential injury risk associated with more common forms of CRS and booster seat misuse, which could be applied with observed error frequency-for example, in car seat clinics or during prototype user testing-to better identify and characterize the installation issues of greatest risk to safety. A group of 8 leading world experts in CRS and injury biomechanics, who were members of an international child safety project, estimated the potential injury severity associated with common forms of CRS and booster seat misuse. These injury risk error severity score (ESS) ratings were compiled and compared to scores from previous research that had used a similar procedure but with fewer respondents. To illustrate their application, and as part of a larger study examining CRS and booster seat labeling requirements, the new standardized ESS ratings were applied to objective installation performance data from 26 adult participants who installed a convertible (rear- vs. forward-facing) CRS and booster seat in a vehicle, and a child test dummy in the CRS and booster seat, using labels that only just met minimal regulatory requirements. The outcome measure, the risk priority number (RPN), represented the composite scores of injury risk and observed installation error frequency. Variability within the sample of ESS ratings in the present study was smaller than that generated in previous studies, indicating better agreement among experts on what constituted injury risk. Application of the new standardized ESS ratings to installation

  11. Energy expenditure estimation in beta-blocker-medicated cardiac patients by combining heart rate and body movement data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kraal, Jos J.; Sartor, Francesco; Papini, Gabriele; Stut, Wim; Peek, Niels; Kemps, Hareld Mc; Bonomi, Alberto G.

    2016-01-01

    Accurate assessment of energy expenditure provides an opportunity to monitor physical activity during cardiac rehabilitation. However, the available assessment methods, based on the combination of heart rate (HR) and body movement data, are not applicable for patients using beta-blocker medication.

  12. The Influence of Base Rate and Case Information on Health-Risk Perceptions: A Unified Model of Self-Positivity and Self-Negativity

    OpenAIRE

    Dengfeng Yan; Jaideep Sengupta

    2013-01-01

    This research examines how consumers use base rate (e.g., disease prevalence in a population) and case information (e.g., an individual's disease symptoms) to estimate health risks. Drawing on construal level theory, we propose that consumers' reliance on base rate (case information) will be enhanced (weakened) by psychological distance. A corollary of this premise is that self-positivity (i.e., underestimating self-risk vs. other-risk) is likely when the disease base rate is high but the cas...

  13. Expert ratings of job demand and job control as predictors of injury and musculoskeletal disorder risk in a manufacturing cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cantley, Linda F; Tessier-Sherman, Baylah; Slade, Martin D; Galusha, Deron; Cullen, Mark R

    2016-04-01

    To examine associations between workplace injury and musculoskeletal disorder (MSD) risk and expert ratings of job-level psychosocial demand and job control, adjusting for job-level physical demand. Among a cohort of 9260 aluminium manufacturing workers in jobs for which expert ratings of job-level physical and psychological demand and control were obtained during the 2 years following rating obtainment, multivariate mixed effects models were used to estimate relative risk (RR) of minor injury and minor MSD, serious injury and MSD, minor MSD only and serious MSD only by tertile of demand and control, adjusting for physical demand as well as other recognised risk factors. Compared with workers in jobs rated as having low psychological demand, workers in jobs with high psychological demand had 49% greater risk of serious injury and serious MSD requiring medical treatment, work restrictions or lost work time (RR=1.49; 95% CI 1.10 to 2.01). Workers in jobs rated as having low control displayed increased risk for minor injury and minor MSD (RR=1.45; 95% CI 1.12 to 1.87) compared with those in jobs rated as having high control. Using expert ratings of job-level exposures, this study provides evidence that psychological job demand and job control contribute independently to injury and MSD risk in a blue-collar manufacturing cohort, and emphasises the importance of monitoring psychosocial workplace exposures in addition to physical workplace exposures to promote worker health and safety. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

  14. Individual and combined effects of maternal anemia and prenatal infection on risk for schizophrenia in offspring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nielsen, Philip R; Meyer, Urs; Mortensen, Preben B

    2016-04-01

    Maternal iron deficiency and infection during pregnancy have individually been associated with increased risk of schizophrenia in the offspring, but possible interactions between the two remain unidentified thus far. Therefore, we determined the individual and combined effects of maternal infection during pregnancy and prepartum anemia on schizophrenia risk in the offspring. We conducted a population-based study with individual record linkage of the Danish Civil Registration System, the Danish Hospital Register, and the Central Danish Psychiatric Register. In a cohort of Danish singleton births 1,403,183 born between 1977 and 2002, 6729 developed schizophrenia between 1987 and 2012. Cohort members were considered as having a maternal history of anemia if the mother had received a diagnosis of anemia at any time during the pregnancy. Maternal infection was defined based on infections requiring hospital admission during pregnancy. Maternal anemia and infection were both associated with increased risk of schizophrenia in unadjusted analyses (1.45-fold increase for anemia, 95% CI: 1.14-1.82; 1.32-fold increase for infection, 95% CI: 1.17-1.48). The effect of maternal infection remained significant (1.16-fold increase, 95% CI: 1.03-1.31) after adjustment for possible confounding factors. Combined exposure to anemia and an infection increased the effect size to a 2.49-fold increased schizophrenia risk (95% CI: 1.29-4.27). The interaction analysis, however, failed to provide evidence for multiplicative interactions between the two factors. Our findings indicate that maternal anemia and infection have additive but not interactive effects, and therefore, they may represent two independent risk factors of schizophrenia. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Physical risk factors identification based on body sensor network combined to videotaping.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vignais, Nicolas; Bernard, Fabien; Touvenot, Gérard; Sagot, Jean-Claude

    2017-11-01

    The aim of this study was to perform an ergonomic analysis of a material handling task by combining a subtask video analysis and a RULA computation, implemented continuously through a motion capture system combining inertial sensors and electrogoniometers. Five workers participated to the experiment. Seven inertial measurement units, placed on the worker's upper body (pelvis, thorax, head, arms, forearms), were implemented through a biomechanical model of the upper body to continuously provide trunk, neck, shoulder and elbow joint angles. Wrist joint angles were derived from electrogoniometers synchronized with the inertial measurement system. Worker's activity was simultaneously recorded using video. During post-processing, joint angles were used as inputs to a computationally implemented ergonomic evaluation based on the RULA method. Consequently a RULA score was calculated at each time step to characterize the risk of exposure of the upper body (right and left sides). Local risk scores were also computed to identify the anatomical origin of the exposure. Moreover, the video-recorded work activity was time-studied in order to classify and quantify all subtasks involved into the task. Results showed that mean RULA scores were at high risk for all participants (6 and 6.2 for right and left sides respectively). A temporal analysis demonstrated that workers spent most part of the work time at a RULA score of 7 (right: 49.19 ± 35.27%; left: 55.5 ± 29.69%). Mean local scores revealed that most exposed joints during the task were elbows, lower arms, wrists and hands. Elbows and lower arms were indeed at a high level of risk during the total time of a work cycle (100% for right and left sides). Wrist and hands were also exposed to a risky level for much of the period of work (right: 82.13 ± 7.46%; left: 77.85 ± 12.46%). Concerning the subtask analysis, subtasks called 'snow thrower', 'opening the vacuum sealer', 'cleaning' and 'storing' have been identified as

  16. [Sports medical aspects in cardiac risk stratification--heart rate variability and exercise capacity].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banzer, W; Lucki, K; Bürklein, M; Rosenhagen, A; Vogt, L

    2006-12-01

    The present study investigates the association of the predicted CHD-risk (PROCAM) with the individual endurance capacity and heart rate variability (HRV) in a population-based sample of sedentary elderly. After stratification, in 57 men (48.1+/-9.5 yrs.) with an overall PROCAM-risk or =10% (50.8+/-5.6 points) cycle ergometries and short-term HRV analysis of time (RRMEAN, SDNN, RMSSD) and frequency domain parameters (LF, HF, TP, LF/HF) were conducted. Additionally the autonomic stress index (SI) was calculated. Nonparametric tests were used for statistical correlation analysis (Spearman rho) and group comparisons (Mann-Whitney). For endurance capacity [W/kg] (r=-0.469, pHRV analysis in risk stratification and outline the interrelation of a decreased exercise capacity and autonomic function with a raised individual 10-year cardiac risk. As an independent parameter of the vegetative regulatory state the stress index may contribute to an increased practical relevance of short-time HRV analysis.

  17. Cytogenetic effects of weak and combined actions in plants in connection with a problem of ecological rating

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Geras'kin, S.A.; Dikarev, V.G.; Udalova, A.A.; Dikareva, N.S.; Vasil'ev, D.V.; Evseeva, T.I.

    2002-01-01

    It is compared sanitary-hygienic and ecological approaches to rating of ionizing radiation action. The features of formation of cytogenetic effects in plants in conditions of separate and combined with factors of other nature action of ionizing radiation low doses are considered. (author)

  18. Cancer risk of low dose/low dose rate radiation: a meta-analysis of cancer data of mammals exposed to low doses of radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ogata, Hiromitsu; Magae, Junji

    2008-01-01

    Full text: Linear No Threshold (LNT) model is a basic theory for radioprotection, but the adaptability of this hypothesis to biological responses at low doses or at low dose rates is not sufficiently investigated. Simultaneous consideration of the cumulative dose and the dose rate is necessary for evaluating the risk of long-term exposure to ionizing radiation at low dose. This study intends to examine several numerical relationships between doses and dose rates in biological responses to gamma radiation. Collected datasets on the relationship between dose and the incidence of cancer in mammals exposed to low doses of radiation were analysed using meta-regression models and modified exponential (MOE) model, which we previously published, that predicts irradiation time-dependent biological response at low dose rate ionizing radiation. Minimum doses of observable risk and effective doses with a variety of dose rates were calculated using parameters estimated by fitting meta-regression models to the data and compared them with other statistical models that find values corresponding to 'threshold limits'. By fitting a weighted regression model (fixed-effects meta-regression model) to the data on risk of all cancers, it was found that the log relative risk [log(RR)] increased as the total exposure dose increased. The intersection of this regression line with the x-axis denotes the minimum dose of observable risk. These estimated minimum doses and effective doses increased with decrease of dose rate. The goodness of fits of MOE-model depended on cancer types, but the total cancer risk is reduced when dose rates are very low. The results suggest that dose response curve for cancer risk is remarkably affected by dose rate and that dose rate effect changes as a function of dose rate. For scientific discussion on the low dose exposure risk and its uncertainty, the term 'threshold' should be statistically defined, and dose rate effects should be included in the risk

  19. Asset backed securities : risks, ratings and quantitative modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jönsson, B.H.B.; Schoutens, W.

    2009-01-01

    Asset backed securities (ABSs) are structured finance products backed by pools of assets and are created through a securitisation process. The risks in asset backed securities, such as, credit risk, prepayment risk, market risks, operational risk, and legal risks, are directly connected with the

  20. Risk of thyroid cancer following exposure to 131I early in life: A combined analysis of six studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kesminiene, Ausrele; Tenet, Vanesa; Cardis, Elisabeth; Astakhova, Larisa; Davis, Scott; Kopecky, Kenneth J.; Ivanov, Victor; Stepanenko, Valeri; Malakhova, Irina; Simon, Steven; Bouville, Andre; Drozdovitch, Vladimir; Trott, Klaus; Negri, Eva

    2008-01-01

    Full text: Several recent studies have investigated the association between the risk of thyroid cancer and exposure to radio-iodines, following the Chernobyl accident, fall-out from weapons testing or releases from nuclear installations. These studies have been carried out in Belarus, Russia, French Polynesia, the US (Hanford site) and the Marshall Islands, in populations with different genetic backgrounds and different distributions of host and environmental risk factors, and most have collected information on a number of possible confounding or modifying factors. A formal combined analysis of studies of thyroid cancer in relation to 131 I exposure in childhood and adolescence was performed in an attempt to maximise the information concerning risks from exposure to iodine radioisotopes. The objectives of the analyses were: a) to evaluate the risk of thyroid cancer related to exposure to 131 I in childhood and adolescence; and b) to evaluate the role of environmental and host factors that may modify radiation-induced thyroid cancer risk. These include: age at exposure, stable iodine intake, genetic background, history of thyroid diseases, diet and reproductive history. The criteria for inclusion of studies in the combined analyses, which were defined a priori, included availability of individual or individualised estimates of radiation dose to the thyroid and adequate diagnostic confirmation of thyroid cancer. Conditional logistic regression was used to analyze the relation between radiation dose and risk of thyroid cancer. It was applied in the standard fashion to case-control studies. For cohort studies, 'case-control sets' were defined on the basis of the 'risk sets' for each individual case. The distribution of total thyroid dose was highly skewed, with the majority of subjects in almost all studies having received relatively low doses, particularly in French Polynesia. The dose to the thyroid was mainly from exposure to 131 I, except in the Marshall Islands

  1. INCLUDING INTANGIBLE ASSETS IN RATES TO ESTIMATE THE RISK OF BANKRUPTCY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eugenia IANCU

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to show that an economic entity’s intangible assets play an important role in predicting the risk of bankruptcy of the company and at the same time in its evolution. Based on benchmarking and on appeal to the experience and intuition of available human expert it can be shaped a credible model and, based on this model can be projected the future course of a business organization. Among other issues, we note that the intangible assets of a company can and should be entered into the equation for estimating the risk of bankruptcy whether it avails or not to artificial intelligence (AI techniques to solve this problem (values lead to bankruptcy and the graphics functions differ majorly when the analysis includes the Rhine rate which takes into account intangibles of firms. From the structure of the paper we can see that whatever the type of model used in predicting the risk of bankruptcy at either classic or using artificial intelligence techniques (AI a leading role in the evolution and the value of the company represents intangible.

  2. Theoretical vs. measured risk estimates for the external exposure to ionizing radiation pathway - a case study of a major industrial site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dundon, S.T.

    1996-01-01

    Two methods of estimating the risk to industrial receptors to ionizing radiation are presented here. The first method relies on the use of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) external exposure slope factor combined with default exposure parameters for industrial land uses. The second method employs measured exposure rate date and site-specific exposure durations combined with the BEIR V radiological risk coefficient to estimate occupational risk. The uncertainties in each method are described qualitatively. Site-specific information was available for the exposure duration and the exposure frequency as well as historic dosimetry information. Risk estimates were also generated for the current regulatory cleanup level (removal risks included) and for a no action scenario. The study showed that uncertainties for risks calculated using measured exposure rates and site-specific exposure parameters were much lower and defendable than using EPA slope factors combined with default exposure parameters. The findings call into question the use of a uniform cleanup standard for depleted uranium that does not account for site-specific land uses and relies on theoretical models rather than measured exposure rate information

  3. Factors contributing to the differences in work related injury rates between Danish and Swedish construction workers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Spangenberg, S.; Baarts, C.; Dyreborg, J.

    2002-01-01

    of injury risk factors at group and individual level for Danish and Swedish workers. LTI-rates and injury risk factors were compared for Danish and Swedish workers during the construction of the combined rail and road link across the 16-km wide sound, Oresund, between Denmark and Sweden. The comparison...... showed that the LTI-rate of the Danish construction workers was approximately fourfold the LTI-rate of the Swedish construction workers. Factors at the micro-level (group and individual level) e.g. differences in education and experience, training and learning, and attitude were important...

  4. Risk of Fetal Loss Associated With Invasive Testing Following Combined First-Trimester Screening for Down Syndrome

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wulff, C. B.; Gerds, T. A.; Rode, L.

    2016-01-01

    from being based on maternal age to combined first-trimester screening (cFTS) for trisomy 21. The aim of the study was to assess prospectively the risk of fetal loss associated with CVS and AC after cFTS for Down syndrome. A nationwide population-based study (Danish Fetal Medicine Database, 2008...

  5. A real-time heat strain risk classifier using heart rate and skin temperature

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buller, Mark J; Latzka, William A; Yokota, Miyo; Tharion, William J; Moran, Daniel S

    2008-01-01

    Heat injury is a real concern to workers engaged in physically demanding tasks in high heat strain environments. Several real-time physiological monitoring systems exist that can provide indices of heat strain, e.g. physiological strain index (PSI), and provide alerts to medical personnel. However, these systems depend on core temperature measurement using expensive, ingestible thermometer pills. Seeking a better solution, we suggest the use of a model which can identify the probability that individuals are 'at risk' from heat injury using non-invasive measures. The intent is for the system to identify individuals who need monitoring more closely or who should apply heat strain mitigation strategies. We generated a model that can identify 'at risk' (PSI ≥ 7.5) workers from measures of heart rate and chest skin temperature. The model was built using data from six previously published exercise studies in which some subjects wore chemical protective equipment. The model has an overall classification error rate of 10% with one false negative error (2.7%), and outperforms an earlier model and a least squares regression model with classification errors of 21% and 14%, respectively. Additionally, the model allows the classification criteria to be adjusted based on the task and acceptable level of risk. We conclude that the model could be a valuable part of a multi-faceted heat strain management system. (note)

  6. What does my patient's coronary artery calcium score mean? Combining information from the coronary artery calcium score with information from conventional risk factors to estimate coronary heart disease risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pletcher Mark J

    2004-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The coronary artery calcium (CAC score is an independent predictor of coronary heart disease. We sought to combine information from the CAC score with information from conventional cardiac risk factors to produce post-test risk estimates, and to determine whether the score may add clinically useful information. Methods We measured the independent cross-sectional associations between conventional cardiac risk factors and the CAC score among asymptomatic persons referred for non-contrast electron beam computed tomography. Using the resulting multivariable models and published CAC score-specific relative risk estimates, we estimated post-test coronary heart disease risk in a number of different scenarios. Results Among 9341 asymptomatic study participants (age 35–88 years, 40% female, we found that conventional coronary heart disease risk factors including age, male sex, self-reported hypertension, diabetes and high cholesterol were independent predictors of the CAC score, and we used the resulting multivariable models for predicting post-test risk in a variety of scenarios. Our models predicted, for example, that a 60-year-old non-smoking non-diabetic women with hypertension and high cholesterol would have a 47% chance of having a CAC score of zero, reducing her 10-year risk estimate from 15% (per Framingham to 6–9%; if her score were over 100, however (a 17% chance, her risk estimate would be markedly higher (25–51% in 10 years. In low risk scenarios, the CAC score is very likely to be zero or low, and unlikely to change management. Conclusion Combining information from the CAC score with information from conventional risk factors can change assessment of coronary heart disease risk to an extent that may be clinically important, especially when the pre-test 10-year risk estimate is intermediate. The attached spreadsheet makes these calculations easy.

  7. Problem formulation for risk assessment of combined exposures to chemicals and other stressors in humans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solomon, Keith R; Wilks, Martin F; Bachman, Ammie; Boobis, Alan; Moretto, Angelo; Pastoor, Timothy P; Phillips, Richard; Embry, Michelle R

    2016-11-01

    When the human health risk assessment/risk management paradigm was developed, it did not explicitly include a "problem formulation" phase. The concept of problem formulation was first introduced in the context of ecological risk assessment (ERA) for the pragmatic reason to constrain and focus ERAs on the key questions. However, this need also exists for human health risk assessment, particularly for cumulative risk assessment (CRA), because of its complexity. CRA encompasses the combined threats to health from exposure via all relevant routes to multiple stressors, including biological, chemical, physical and psychosocial stressors. As part of the HESI Risk Assessment in the 21st Century (RISK21) Project, a framework for CRA was developed in which problem formulation plays a critical role. The focus of this effort is primarily on a chemical CRA (i.e., two or more chemicals) with subsequent consideration of non-chemical stressors, defined as "modulating factors" (ModFs). Problem formulation is a systematic approach that identifies all factors critical to a specific risk assessment and considers the purpose of the assessment, scope and depth of the necessary analysis, analytical approach, available resources and outcomes, and overall risk management goal. There are numerous considerations that are specific to multiple stressors, and proper problem formulation can help to focus a CRA to the key factors in order to optimize resources. As part of the problem formulation, conceptual models for exposures and responses can be developed that address these factors, such as temporal relationships between stressors and consideration of the appropriate ModFs.

  8. A New Marker to Determine Prognosis of Acute Pancreatitis: PLR and NLR Combination

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kaplan Mustafa

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: We aimed to investigate the prognostic importance of platelet-lymphocyte ratio (PLR and neutro - phil-lymphocyte ratio(NLR combination for patients diagnosed with acute pancreatitis and its relationship with mortality. Methods: This retrospective study was included 142 patients diagnosed with acute pancreatitis. Ranson, Atlanta and BISAP 0h, 24h and 48h scores of the patients were calculated by examining their patient files. The patients were divided into three groups as low-risk, medium-risk and high-risk patients according to their PLR and NLR levels. Results: The number of patients with acute pancreatitis complications such as necrotizing pancreatitis, acute renal failure, sepsis and cholangitis was significantly higher in the high-risk group compared to other groups. Mortality rate was found to be 90% in the high-risk group, 16% in the medium-risk group, and 1.9% in the low-risk group. The number of patients with a Ranson score of 5 and 6, a severe Atlanta score, a BISAP 0h score of 3 and 4, a BISAP 24h and 48h score of 4 and 5 was higher in the high-risk group compared to other groups. PLR-NLR combination, Atlanta and Ranson scores, and C-reactive protein level were determined to be independent risk factors predicting mortality in stepwise regression model. PLR-NLR combination had the highest area under curve value in terms of predicting acute claspancreatitis prognosis and had a similar diagnostic discrimination with other scoring systems. Conclusion: In our study it was found that PLR-NLR combination had a similar prognostic importance with other scoring systems used to determine acute pancreatitis prognosis.

  9. Combined Use of Alcohol and Energy Drinks Increases Participation in High-Risk Drinking and Driving Behaviors Among College Students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woolsey, Conrad L; Williams, Ronald D; Housman, Jeff M; Barry, Adam E; Jacobson, Bert H; Evans, Marion W

    2015-07-01

    A recent study suggested that college students who combined alcohol and energy drinks were more likely than students who consumed only alcohol to drive when their blood alcohol concentration (BAC) was higher than the .08% limit and to choose to drive despite knowing they had too much alcohol to drive safely. This study sought to replicate those findings with a larger sample while also exploring additional variables related to impaired driving. College students (N = 549) completed an anonymous online survey to assess differences in drinking and driving-related behaviors between alcohol-only users (n = 281) and combined alcohol-energy drink users (n = 268). Combined users were more likely than alcohol-only users to choose to (a) drive when they perceived they were over the .08% BAC limit (35.0% vs. 18.1%, p drinks consumed, number of days drinking, number of days drunk, number of heavy episodic drinking episodes, greatest number of drinks on one occasion, and average hours of consumption. Combined use of alcohol and energy drinks may place drinkers at greater risk when compared with those who consume only alcohol. College students in this sample who combined alcohol and energy drinks were more likely to participate in high-risk driving behaviors than those who consumed only alcohol.

  10. A combined effect of two Alzheimer’s risk genes on medial temporal activity during executive attention in young adults

    OpenAIRE

    Green, Adam E.; Gray, Jeremy R.; DeYoung, Colin G.; Mhyre, Timothy R.; Padilla, Robert; DiBattista, Amanda M.; Rebeck, G. William

    2014-01-01

    A recent history of failed clinical trials suggests that waiting until even the early stages of onset of Alzheimer’s disease may be too late for effective treatment, pointing to the importance of early intervention in young people. Early intervention will require markers of Alzheimer’s risk that track with genotype but are capable of responding to treatment. Here, we sought to identify a functional MRI signature of combined Alzheimer’s risk imparted by two genetic risk factors. We used a task...

  11. Value at risk using financial copulas: Application to the Mexican exchange rate (2002-2011

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tania Nadiezhda Plascencia Cuevas

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays, the volatility of exchange rate is a crucial and a transcendental issue for all transactions, negotiations and operations taking place in foreign currency, being an objective and an accurate prediction the cornerstone. Therefore, the main objective of this research is to analyze whether the Mexican exchange rate market, risk assessment using traditional VaR and VaR with copulas methodologies are more accurate when the estimates are made for a wide historical time-series or two periods for certain, helping it to predict the maximum losses that may be, with the main motivation to have a efficient hedging strategy. The principal conclusion is that assessing risk with these methodologies, the series does not necessarily have to include more than five years, considering that the use of copulas as a dependent measure make that the prediction fits better to the movements of the real returns.

  12. Immunostimulation by cytosine-phosphate-guanine oligodeoxynucleotides in combination with IL-2 can improve the success rate of karyotype analysis in chronic lymphocytic leukaemia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Xiaolan; Chen, Jiadi; Huang, Huifang

    2016-07-01

    To assess whether immunostimulatory cytosine-phosphate-guanine oligodeoxynucleotides (CpG-ODN) combined with interleukin-2 (IL-2) improves the number of mitotic metaphases and the detection rate of chromosomal abnormalities in chronic lymphocytic leukaemia (CLL). Bone marrow specimens were collected from 36 patients with CLL. CLL cells were cultured with CpG-ODN type DSP30 plus IL-2 for 72 h, following which R-banding analysis was conducted. Conventional culture without the immunostimulant served as the control group. The incidence of genetic abnormalities was measured by fluorescence in situ hybridisation (FISH) using a panel of five specific probes: D13S25 (13q14.3), RB1 (13q14), P53 (17p13), ATM (11q22.3) and CSP12 (trisomy 12, +12). In the control group, chromosome analysis achieved a success rate of only 22.2, and 11.1% of abnormal karyotypes were detected. After immunostimulation with DSP30 plus IL-2, chromosome analysis achieved a success rate of up to 91.6, and 41.6% of abnormal karyotypes were detected. FISH analysis detected 77.7% of abnormalities. FISH combined with CpG-ODN DSP30 plus IL-2 improved the detection rate of chromosomal abnormalities in CLL to 83.3%. CpG-ODN DSP30 combined with IL-2 is effective in improving the detection rate of chromosomal abnormalities in CLL cells. This combination with FISH analysis is conducive to increasing the detection rate of genetic abnormalities in CLL.

  13. Longitudinal dating violence victimization among Latino teens: Rates, risk factors, and cultural influences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabina, Chiara; Cuevas, Carlos A; Cotignola-Pickens, Heather M

    2016-02-01

    This study uses data from two waves of the Dating Violence Among Latino Adolescents (DAVILA) study and focuses on the 1) rates of dating violence victimization by gender, 2) risk of experiencing dating violence victimization over time, 3) association of dating violence victimization with other forms of victimization, and 4) association of immigrant status, acculturation, and familial support with dating violence victimization over time. A total of 547 Latino adolescents, from across the USA, aged 12-18 at Wave 1 participated in both waves of the study. Rates of dating violence were around 19% across waves. Dating violence at Wave 1 and non-dating violence victimization were associated with an elevated risk of dating violence during Wave 2. Cultural factors did not distinguish between dating violence trajectories, except for immigrant status and familial support being associated with no dating violence victimization. Overall, dating violence affects a large number of Latino teens and tends to continue over time. Copyright © 2015 The Foundation for Professionals in Services for Adolescents. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Combining lifecycle and risk assessments of mineral waste reuse scenarios for decision making support

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benetto, Enrico; Tiruta-Barna, Ligia; Perrodin, Yves

    2007-01-01

    Lack of regulations and standards on mineral waste recycling makes Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA) useful methods for environmental assessment of recycling scenarios. An unsolved problem arises whenever two scenarios of recycling have to be compared according to both ERA and LCA impact results considered simultaneously. A methodology to combine LCA and ERA results and tools toward Integrated Environmental Assessment (IEA) is proposed together with three application examples based on case studies. The most effective combination approach is to define further impact categories for ERA to be considered with the standard LCA ones. Then, the use of a multicriteria analysis method was proved to be an efficient way to rank alternative scenarios with respect to all the results. The key issues to be further researched are discussed and proposals are suggested

  15. Interest Rate Swaps

    OpenAIRE

    Marina Pepic

    2014-01-01

    Interest rates changes have a huge impact on the business performance. Therefore, it is of great importance for the market participants to identify and adequately manage this risk. Financial derivatives are a relatively simple way of protection from adverse changes in interest rates. Interest rate swaps are particularly popular because they reduce interest rate risk to a minimum with a relatively low initial cost and without great risk, but also because of the fact that there are many modific...

  16. Mechanisms of Protection from Interest Rate Risk with Reference to the Life Insurance Market in Montenegro

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Burić Milijana Novović

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Insurance companies are facing major challenges that point to the need for control process and risk management. Risk management in insurance has a direct impact on solvency, economic security, and overall financial stability of insurance companies. It is very important for insurance companies to adequately calculate risks to which they are exposed. Asset liability management (ALM, as an integrated approach to financial management, requires simultaneous decision-making about categories and values of assets and liabilities in order to establish the optimum volume and the ratio of assets and liabilities, with the understanding of complexity of the financial market in which financial institutions operate. ALM focuses on a significant number of risks, whereby the emphasis in this paper will be on interest rate risk which indicates potential losses that may reflect in a lower interest margin, a lower value of assets or both, in terms of changes in interest rates. In the above context, the aim of this paper is to show how to protect from interest rate changes and how these changes influence the insurance market in Montenegro, both from the theoretical and the practical point of view. The authors consider this to be an interesting and very important topic, especially because the life insurance market in Montenegro is underdeveloped and subject to fluctuations. Also, taking into account the fact that Montenegro is a country that has been making serious efforts to join the EU, it is expected that insurance companies in Montenegro will strengthen their financial position in the market even using the ALM traditional techniques, which is shown in this paper.

  17. The combined risks of reduced or increased function variants in cell death pathway genes differentially influence cervical cancer risk and herpes simplex virus type 2 infection among black Africans and the Mixed Ancestry population of South Africa

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chattopadhyay, Koushik; Williamson, Anna-Lise; Hazra, Annapurna; Dandara, Collet

    2015-01-01

    Cervical cancer is one of the most important cancers worldwide with a high incident and mortality rate and is caused by the human papilloma virus (HPV). Among sexually active women who get infected with human papillomavirus (HPV), a small fraction progresses to cervical cancer disease pointing to possible roles of additional risk factors in development of the disease which include host genetic factors and other infections such as HSV-2. Since cellular apoptosis plays a role in controlling the spread of virus-infections in cells, gene variants altering the function of proteins involved in cell death pathways might be associated with the clearing of virus infections. Activity altering polymorphisms in FasR (−1377G > A and -670A > G), FasL (−844 T > C) and CASP8 (−652 6 N ins/del) genes have been shown to alter the mechanism of apoptosis by modifying the level of expression of their correspondent proteins. In the present study, we set out to investigate the combined risks of CASP8, FasR, and FasL polymorphisms in cervical cancer, pre-cancerous lesions, HPV infection and HSV-2 infection. Participants were 442 South African women of black African and mixed-ancestry origin with invasive cervical cancer and 278 control women matched by age, ethnicity and domicile status. FasR and FasL polymorphisms were genotyped by TaqMan and CASP8 polymorphism by PCR-RFLP. The results were analysed with R using haplo.stats software version 1.5.2. CASP8 -652 6 N del + FasR-670A was associated with a reduced risk (P = 0.019, Combined Polymorphism Score (CPS) = −2.34) and CASP8 -652 6 N ins + FasR-1377G was associated with a marginal increased risk (P = 0.047, CPS = 1.99) of cervical cancer among black Africans. When compared within the control group, CASP8 -652 6 N ins + FasR-1377A showed a reduced risk (P = 0.023, CPS = −2.28) of HSV-2 infection in both black African and mixed-ancestry population. Our results show that the combined risks of variants in cell death pathway genes

  18. The combined risks of reduced or increased function variants in cell death pathway genes differentially influence cervical cancer risk and herpes simplex virus type 2 infection among black Africans and the Mixed Ancestry population of South Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chattopadhyay, Koushik; Williamson, Anna-Lise; Hazra, Annapurna; Dandara, Collet

    2015-10-12

    Cervical cancer is one of the most important cancers worldwide with a high incident and mortality rate and is caused by the human papilloma virus (HPV). Among sexually active women who get infected with human papillomavirus (HPV), a small fraction progresses to cervical cancer disease pointing to possible roles of additional risk factors in development of the disease which include host genetic factors and other infections such as HSV-2. Since cellular apoptosis plays a role in controlling the spread of virus-infections in cells, gene variants altering the function of proteins involved in cell death pathways might be associated with the clearing of virus infections. Activity altering polymorphisms in FasR (-1377G > A and -670A > G), FasL (-844 T > C) and CASP8 (-652 6 N ins/del) genes have been shown to alter the mechanism of apoptosis by modifying the level of expression of their correspondent proteins. In the present study, we set out to investigate the combined risks of CASP8, FasR, and FasL polymorphisms in cervical cancer, pre-cancerous lesions, HPV infection and HSV-2 infection. Participants were 442 South African women of black African and mixed-ancestry origin with invasive cervical cancer and 278 control women matched by age, ethnicity and domicile status. FasR and FasL polymorphisms were genotyped by TaqMan and CASP8 polymorphism by PCR-RFLP. The results were analysed with R using haplo.stats software version 1.5.2. CASP8 -652 6 N del + FasR-670A was associated with a reduced risk (P = 0.019, Combined Polymorphism Score (CPS) = -2.34) and CASP8 -652 6 N ins + FasR-1377G was associated with a marginal increased risk (P = 0.047, CPS = 1.99) of cervical cancer among black Africans. When compared within the control group, CASP8 -652 6 N ins + FasR-1377A showed a reduced risk (P = 0.023, CPS = -2.28) of HSV-2 infection in both black African and mixed-ancestry population. Our results show that the combined risks of

  19. DIGITAL FLOOD INSURANCE RATE MAP DATABASE, COLUMBIA COUNTY, WISCONSIN, USA - MIP Columbia Portion Baraboo River Watershed RiskMap DFIRM Update

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Emergency Management Agency, Department of Homeland Security — The Digital Flood Insurance Rate Map (DFIRM) Database depicts flood risk information and supporting data used to develop the risk data. The primary risk;...

  20. Risk Factors Influencing Conception Rate in Holstein Heifers before Artificial Insemination or Embryo Transfer

    OpenAIRE

    M. Yusuf; T. Nakao; S. T. Long; S. Fujita

    2016-01-01

    The objective of this study was to show the risk factors affecting the conception rate in Holstein heifers after synchronization of estrus. A total of 275 Holstein heifers housed in a free barn were used for the experiment. The herd was visited regularly at four week intervals for synchronization of estrus using Heatsynch and CIDR-Heatsynch protocols. A group of four to 14 animals, depending on the availability, were referred to the experiment at each visit. Estrus induction rates in the two ...

  1. On the rate of return and risk factors to international oil companies in Iran's buy-back service contracts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghandi, Abbas; Lin Lawell, C.-Y. Cynthia

    2017-01-01

    We analyze the rate of return (ROR) and risk factors faced by Shell Exploration, an international oil company (IOC), in its Soroosh and Nowrooz buy-back service contract in Iran. In particular, based on our models of cash flow, we analyze the buy-back contract specific risk factors that can contribute to a reduction in the rate of return for the international oil company. Our cash flow models resemble the cash flow of buy-back service contracts before the Iranian government changed the way it determined the capital cost ceiling and pre-defined the oil price in these contracts in 2008–2009. Our actual and contractual cash flow models reveal that Shell Exploration's actual ROR was much lower than the contractual level. Furthermore, we find that among the risk factors that we considered, a capital cost overrun has the greatest negative effect on the IOC's ROR. Moreover, we show that there is a potential for modifying the contracts in order for the IOC to face an actual ROR closer to the contractual ROR even if the contract faces cost overrun or delay, without exceeding the maximum contractual ROR that the National Iranian Oil Company is willing to give. - Highlights: • Buy-back contract specific risk factors can reduce the rate of return. • Shell Exploration's actual ROR was much lower than the contractual level. • A capital cost overrun has the greatest negative effect on the rate of return. • Contracts can be modified to better share the risk.

  2. Antiretroviral therapy during pregnancy and the risk of an adverse outcome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tuomala, Ruth E; Shapiro, David E; Mofenson, Lynne M; Bryson, Yvonne; Culnane, Mary; Hughes, Michael D; O'Sullivan, M J; Scott, Gwendolyn; Stek, Alice M; Wara, Diane; Bulterys, Marc

    2002-06-13

    Some studies suggest that combination antiretroviral therapy in pregnant women with human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) infection increases the risk of premature birth and other adverse outcomes of pregnancy. We studied pregnant women with HIV-1 infection who were enrolled in seven clinical studies and delivered their infants from 1990 through 1998. The cohort comprised 2123 women who received antiretroviral therapy during pregnancy (monotherapy in 1590, combination therapy without protease inhibitors in 396, and combination therapy with protease inhibitors in 137) and 1143 women who did not receive antiretroviral therapy. After standardization for the CD4+ cell count and use or nonuse of tobacco, alcohol, and illicit drugs, the rate of premature delivery (women who received antiretroviral therapy and those who did not (16 percent and 17 percent, respectively); the rate of low birth weight (women who received combination therapy with protease inhibitors (5 percent) had infants with very low birth weight, as compared with nine women who received combination therapy without protease inhibitors (2 percent) (adjusted odds ratio, 3.56; 95 percent confidence interval, 1.04 to 12.19). As compared with no antiretroviral therapy or monotherapy, combination therapy for HIV-1 infection in pregnant women is not associated with increased rates of premature delivery or with low birth weight, low Apgar scores, or stillbirth in their infants. The association between combination therapy with protease inhibitors and an increased risk of very low birth weight requires confirmation.

  3. The effects of Brassica green manures on plant parasitic and free living nematodes used in combination with reduced rates of synthetic nematicides.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riga, Ekaterini

    2011-06-01

    Brassica plants once incorporated into soil as green manures have recently been shown to have biofumigant properties and have the potential of controlling plant-parasitic nematodes. In Washington State, plant-parasitic nematodes are successfully managed with synthetic nematicides. However, some of the synthetic nematicides became unavailable recently or their supply is limited leaving growers with few choices to control plant-parasitic nematodes. The objective of this project was to evaluate the effects of Brassica green manures on their own and in combination with reduced rates of synthetic nematicides on plant-parasitic nematodes and free living nematodes. In a greenhouse experiment and field trials in three seasons, Brassica green manures in combination with half the recommended rate of 1,3-dichloropropene (1,3-D, Telone) reduced root knot nematode, Meloidogyne chitwoodi to below detection levels, and reduced lesion nematodes, Pratylenchus penetrans and stubby root nematodes, Paratrichodorus allius, to below economic thresholds. The combination treatments did not affect the beneficial free-living nematode populations and the non-pathogenic Pseudomonas. The total cost of growing and soil-incorporating Brassica crops as green manures in combination with reduced rates of 1,3-D was approximately 35% lower than the present commercial costs for application for the full rate of this fumigant. Integrating conventional management practices with novel techniques fosters sustainability of production systems and can increase economic benefit to producers while reducing chemical input.

  4. Combined oral contraceptives: venous thrombosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Bastos, Marcos; Stegeman, Bernardine H; Rosendaal, Frits R; Van Hylckama Vlieg, Astrid; Helmerhorst, Frans M; Stijnen, Theo; Dekkers, Olaf M

    2014-03-03

    Combined oral contraceptive (COC) use has been associated with venous thrombosis (VT) (i.e., deep venous thrombosis and pulmonary embolism). The VT risk has been evaluated for many estrogen doses and progestagen types contained in COC but no comprehensive comparison involving commonly used COC is available. To provide a comprehensive overview of the risk of venous thrombosis in women using different combined oral contraceptives. Electronic databases (Pubmed, Embase, Web of Science, Cochrane, CINAHL, Academic Search Premier and ScienceDirect) were searched in 22 April 2013 for eligible studies, without language restrictions. We selected studies including healthy women taking COC with VT as outcome. The primary outcome of interest was a fatal or non-fatal first event of venous thrombosis with the main focus on deep venous thrombosis or pulmonary embolism. Publications with at least 10 events in total were eligible. The network meta-analysis was performed using an extension of frequentist random effects models for mixed multiple treatment comparisons. Unadjusted relative risks with 95% confidence intervals were reported.Two independent reviewers extracted data from selected studies. 3110 publications were retrieved through a search strategy; 25 publications reporting on 26 studies were included. Incidence of venous thrombosis in non-users from two included cohorts was 0.19 and 0.37 per 1 000 person years, in line with previously reported incidences of 0,16 per 1 000 person years. Use of combined oral contraceptives increased the risk of venous thrombosis compared with non-use (relative risk 3.5, 95% confidence interval 2.9 to 4.3). The relative risk of venous thrombosis for combined oral contraceptives with 30-35 μg ethinylestradiol and gestodene, desogestrel, cyproterone acetate, or drospirenone were similar and about 50-80% higher than for combined oral contraceptives with levonorgestrel. A dose related effect of ethinylestradiol was observed for gestodene

  5. Pharmacodynamics of combined estrogen-progestin oral contraceptives: 1. Effects on metabolism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bastianelli, Carlo; Farris, Manuela; Rosato, Elena; Brosens, Ivo; Benagiano, Giuseppe

    2017-03-01

    The risk-benefit profile of any pharmacologic agent must be evaluated against risks connected with the events to be avoided. This is especially true in the case of hormonal contraception, not intended to combat a disease. Over the six decades during which their use has progressively expanded, the risk-benefit profile of combined oral contraceptives (COC) has substantially changed, with new combinations, dosages and mode of administration appearing on the market. Area covered: In a series of articles, recent information on the complex issue of COC risks and benefits will be reviewed in the hope of providing an updated picture. The present article reviews metabolic changes occurring during use of modern combinations of estrogens (ethinyl estradiol, estradiol, estradiol valerate and estetrol) and new progestins (desogestrel, gestodene, dienogest, drospirenone, nomegestrol acetate), often compared to classic compounds, such as levonorgestrel. Three categories of metabolic effects in healthy women are detailed: on carbohydrates, lipid and bone mineral content. Expert commentary: Overall, the picture is reassuring: the new generations of progestins are basically devoid of androgenic, estrogenic or glucocorticoid related side-effects. This should result in an improved safety profile, although past history teaches us that that large comparative and surveillance studies are required before firm conclusions can be drawn. At any rate, available evidence indicates that metabolic effects of third and fourth generation progestins, especially when they are combined with natural estrogens, are minimal and, if used in healthy women, should not cause concern.

  6. Combining individual and ecological data to determine compositional and contextual socio-economic risk factors for suicide

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Agerbo, Esben; Sterne, J.A.; Gunnell, D.J.

    2007-01-01

    The social and economic characteristics of geographic areas are associated with their suicide rates. The extent to which these ecological associations are due to the characteristics of the people living in the areas (compositional effects) or the influence of the areas themselves on risk (context......The social and economic characteristics of geographic areas are associated with their suicide rates. The extent to which these ecological associations are due to the characteristics of the people living in the areas (compositional effects) or the influence of the areas themselves on risk...... (contextual effects) is uncertain. Denmark's Medical Register on Vital Statistics and its Integrated Database for Longitudinal Labour Market Research were used to identify suicides and 20 matched controls per case in 25-60-year-old men and women between 1982 and 1997. Individual and area (municipality...... area levels of employment and income and increasing proportions of people living alone were much attenuated after controlling for compositional effects. We found no consistent evidence that associations with individual-level risk factors differed depending on the areas' characteristics (cross...

  7. Pre-transplant soluble CD30 in combination with total DSA but not pre-transplant C1q-DSA predicts antibody-mediated graft loss in presensitized high-risk kidney transplant recipients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaefer, S M; Süsal, C; Opelz, G; Döhler, B; Becker, L E; Klein, K; Sickmüller, S; Waldherr, R; Macher-Goeppinger, S; Schemmer, P; Beimler, J; Zeier, M; Morath, C

    2016-02-01

    Presensitized kidney transplant recipients are at high-risk for early antibody-mediated rejection. We studied the impact of pre- and post-transplant donor-specific human leukocyte antigen (HLA) antibodies (DSA) and T-cell-activation on the occurrence of antibody-mediated rejection episodes (AMR) and graft loss (AMR-GL) in a unique cohort of 80 desensitized high-risk kidney transplant recipients. Patients with pre-transplant DSA demonstrated more AMR episodes than patients without DSA, but did not show a significantly increased rate of AMR-GL. The rates of AMR and AMR-GL were not significantly increased in patients with complement split product (C1q)-binding pre-transplant DSA. Pre-transplant C1q-DSA became undetectable post-transplant in 11 of 13 (85%) patients; 2 (18%) of these 11 patients showed AMR but no AMR-GL. In contrast, the post-transplant presence of C1q-DSA was associated with significantly higher rates of AMR (86 vs 33 vs 0%; P transplant DSA without C1q-binding or the absence of DSA. Patients with both pre-transplant DSA and evidence of pre-transplant T-cell-activation as indicated by soluble CD30-positivity showed a significantly increased risk for AMR-GL [HR = 11.1, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.68-73.4; log-rank P = 0.013]. In these high-risk patients, AMR-GL was associated with total DSA in combination with T-cell-activation pre-transplant, and de novo or persistent C1q-binding DSA post-transplant. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  8. Malnutrition risk questionnaire combined with body composition measurement in malnutrition screening in inflammatory bowel disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Csontos, Ágnes Anna; Molnár, Andrea; Piri, Zsolt; Pálfi, Erzsébet; Miheller, Pál

    2017-01-01

    The purpose of malnutrition screening is to predict the probability of a worse outcome due to nutritional factors. The Malnutrition Universal Screening Tool (MUST) can be used for screening in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD); however, it does not provide details about body composition. Our aim was to assess the body composition and combine this with the MUST method to screen risk of malnutrition and sarcopenia. A total of 173 IBD outpatients were enrolled in this cross-sectional study. The MUST scale indicated 21.4% of IBD patients to be at risk of malnutrition. A risk of sarcopenia was detected in 27.7%. However, one third of these patients were not considered to be at risk by their MUST score. Furthermore, Crohn's disease (CD) patients had a strongly unfavorable fat-free mass index (FFMI) value compared to ulcerative colitis (UC) patients, and these differences were significant among men (FFMI: 18.62 ± 2.16 vs 19.85 ± 2.22, p = 0.02, in CD and UC males, respectively). As sarcopenia is a relevant prognostic factor, the MUST method should be expanded to include body composition analysis to detect more IBD patients at risk of malnutrition and sarcopenia in order to start their nutritional therapy immediately.

  9. Genetic loci associated with heart rate variability and their effects on cardiac disease risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nolte, Ilja M; Munoz, M Loretto; Tragante, Vinicius; Amare, Azmeraw T; Jansen, Rick; Vaez, Ahmad; von der Heyde, Benedikt; Avery, Christy L; Bis, Joshua C; Dierckx, Bram; van Dongen, Jenny; Gogarten, Stephanie M; Goyette, Philippe; Hernesniemi, Jussi; Huikari, Ville; Hwang, Shih-Jen; Jaju, Deepali; Kerr, Kathleen F; Kluttig, Alexander; Krijthe, Bouwe P; Kumar, Jitender; van der Laan, Sander W; Lyytikäinen, Leo-Pekka; Maihofer, Adam X; Minassian, Arpi; van der Most, Peter J; Müller-Nurasyid, Martina; Nivard, Michel; Salvi, Erika; Stewart, James D; Thayer, Julian F; Verweij, Niek; Wong, Andrew; Zabaneh, Delilah; Zafarmand, Mohammad H; Abdellaoui, Abdel; Albarwani, Sulayma; Albert, Christine; Alonso, Alvaro; Ashar, Foram; Auvinen, Juha; Axelsson, Tomas; Baker, Dewleen G; de Bakker, Paul I W; Barcella, Matteo; Bayoumi, Riad; Bieringa, Rob J; Boomsma, Dorret; Boucher, Gabrielle; Britton, Annie R; Christophersen, Ingrid; Dietrich, Andrea; Ehret, George B; Ellinor, Patrick T; Eskola, Markku; Felix, Janine F; Floras, John S; Franco, Oscar H; Friberg, Peter; Gademan, Maaike G J; Geyer, Mark A; Giedraitis, Vilmantas; Hartman, Catharina A; Hemerich, Daiane; Hofman, Albert; Hottenga, Jouke-Jan; Huikuri, Heikki; Hutri-Kähönen, Nina; Jouven, Xavier; Junttila, Juhani; Juonala, Markus; Kiviniemi, Antti M; Kors, Jan A.; Kumari, Meena; Kuznetsova, Tatiana; Laurie, Cathy C; Lefrandt, Joop D.; Li, Yong; Li, Yun; Liao, Duanping; Limacher, Marian C; Lin, Henry J; Lindgren, Cecilia M; Lubitz, Steven A; Mahajan, Anubha; McKnight, Barbara; Zu Schwabedissen, Henriette Meyer; Milaneschi, Yuri; Mononen, Nina; Morris, Andrew P; Nalls, Mike A; Navis, Gerjan; Neijts, Melanie; Nikus, Kjell; North, Kari E; O'Connor, Daniel T; Ormel, Johan; Perz, Siegfried; Peters, Annette; Psaty, Bruce M; Raitakari, Olli T; Risbrough, Victoria B; Sinner, Moritz F; Siscovick, David; Smit, Johannes H; Smith, Nicholas L; Soliman, Elsayed Z; Sotoodehnia, Nona; Staessen, Jan A; Stein, Phyllis K; Stilp, Adrienne M; Stolarz-Skrzypek, Katarzyna; Strauch, Konstantin; Sundström, Johan; Swenne, Cees A.; Syvänen, Ann-Christine; Tardif, Jean-Claude; Taylor, Kent D; Teumer, Alexander; Thornton, Timothy A; Tinker, Lesley E; Uitterlinden, André G; van Setten, Jessica; Voss, Andreas; Waldenberger, Melanie; Wilhelmsen, Kirk C; Willemsen, Gonneke; Wong, Quenna; Zhang, Zhu-Ming; Zonderman, Alan B; Cusi, Daniele; Evans, Michele K; Greiser, Halina K; van der Harst, Pim; Hassan, Mohammad; Ingelsson, Erik; Järvelin, Marjo-Riitta; Kääb, Stefan; Kähönen, Mika; Kivimaki, Mika; Kooperberg, Charles; Kuh, Diana; Lehtimäki, Terho; Lind, Lars; Nievergelt, Caroline M; O'Donnell, Chris J; Oldehinkel, Albertine J; Penninx, Brenda; Reiner, Alexander P; Riese, Harriëtte; Van Roon, Arie M.; Rioux, John D; Rotter, Jerome I; Sofer, Tamar; Stricker, Bruno H; Tiemeier, Henning; Vrijkotte, Tanja G M; Asselbergs, Folkert W; Brundel, Bianca J J M; Heckbert, Susan R; Whitsel, Eric A; den Hoed, Marcel; Snieder, Harold; de Geus, Eco J C

    2017-01-01

    Reduced cardiac vagal control reflected in low heart rate variability (HRV) is associated with greater risks for cardiac morbidity and mortality. In two-stage meta-analyses of genome-wide association studies for three HRV traits in up to 53,174 individuals of European ancestry, we detect 17

  10. Accounting for Risk of Non-Completion in Private and Social Rates of Return to Higher Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toutkoushian, Robert K.; Shafiq, M. Najeeb; Trivette, Michael J.

    2013-01-01

    Conventional studies of the private and social rates of return to a Bachelor's degree focus on the earnings difference between Bachelor degree holders and high school graduates, and find that there are large rates of return for degree recipients. The estimates in these studies, however, do not take into account the risk of not completing a degree.…

  11. Emigration Rates From Sample Surveys: An Application to Senegal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willekens, Frans; Zinn, Sabine; Leuchter, Matthias

    2017-12-01

    What is the emigration rate of a country, and how reliable is that figure? Answering these questions is not at all straightforward. Most data on international migration are census data on foreign-born population. These migrant stock data describe the immigrant population in destination countries but offer limited information on the rate at which people leave their country of origin. The emigration rate depends on the number leaving in a given period and the population at risk of leaving, weighted by the duration at risk. Emigration surveys provide a useful data source for estimating emigration rates, provided that the estimation method accounts for sample design. In this study, emigration rates and confidence intervals are estimated from a sample survey of households in the Dakar region in Senegal, which was part of the Migration between Africa and Europe survey. The sample was a stratified two-stage sample with oversampling of households with members abroad or return migrants. A combination of methods of survival analysis (time-to-event data) and replication variance estimation (bootstrapping) yields emigration rates and design-consistent confidence intervals that are representative for the study population.

  12. Intraoperative radiotherapy combined with resection for pancreatic cancer. Analysis of survival rates and prognostic factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuga, Hirotaka; Nishihara, Kazuyoshi; Matsunaga, Hiroaki; Suehara, Nobuhiro; Abe, Yuji; Ihara, Takaaki; Iwashita, Toshimitsu; Mitsuyama, Shoshu

    2006-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to evaluate the efficiency of intraoperative radiotherapy (IORT) combined with surgical resection. Subjects were consecutive 69 patients with pancreatic cancer treated with surgery alone (n=31) or surgical resection combined with IORT (n=38) in a 13 year period between 1991 and 2003. We evaluated the effects of IORT against local recurrence of cancer and patients' survival, retrospectively. Furthermore, clinicopathological factors affecting the 5-year survival rate in the two groups were comparatively investigated. The IORT group showed a significantly lower local recurrence rate of cancer than that in the surgery alone group (7.8% and 22.6%, respectively; p<0.05). The 5-year survival probability in the IORT group was significantly higher than that in the surgery alone group (29.9% and 3.4%, respectively; p<0.05). According to the Japanese classification of pancreatic cancer, cancers located in the pancreas body or tail, no local residual cancer post operative procedure (R0), low grade local cancer progression (t1, 2), and low grade intrapancreatic neural invasion (ne0, 1) were significantly better prognostic factors in the IORT group than those in the surgery alone group. There were no significant differences between the both groups in the 5-year survival rate in terms of the sex of the patients, cancer of the pancreas head, histological type, more than R1, the presence of lymph node involvement, ne2-3, and clinical stages. IORT is a useful intraoperative adjuvant therapy for pancreatic cancer, when the curative resection is achieved. Our data have suggested that IORT suppresses the local recurrence of cancer and provides the significant survival benefit for those patients. (author)

  13. The Performance Of Alternative Interest Rate Risk Measures And Immunization Strategies Under A Heath-Jarrow-Morton Framework

    OpenAIRE

    Agca, Senay

    2002-01-01

    The Heath-Jarrow-Morton (HJM) model represents the latest in powerful arbitrage-free technology for modeling the term structure and managing interest rate risk. Yet risk management strategies in the form of immunization portfolios using duration, convexity, and M-square are still widely used in bond portfolio management today. This study addresses the question of how traditional risk measures and immunization strategies perform when the term structure evolves in the HJM manner. Using Monte Ca...

  14. On Value at Risk for Foreign Exchange Rates --- the Copula Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaworski, P.

    2006-11-01

    The aim of this paper is to determine the Value at Risk (VaR) of the portfolio consisting of long positions in foreign currencies on an emerging market. Basing on empirical data we restrict ourselves to the case when the tail parts of distributions of logarithmic returns of these assets follow the power laws and the lower tail of associated copula C follows the power law of degree 1. We will illustrate the practical usefulness of this approach by the analysis of the exchange rates of EUR and CHF at the Polish forex market.

  15. Options for empagliflozin in combination therapy in type 2 diabetes mellitus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hershon KS

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Kenneth S Hershon1,2 1North Shore Diabetes and Endocrine Associates, New Hyde Park, 2Department of Medicine, Hofstra Northwell School of Medicine, Hempstead, NY, USA Objective: To update clinicians with an overview of empagliflozin for the treatment of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM, with focus on use in combination regimens. Methods: Keyword searches were conducted in the Medline database to identify literature reporting clinical trials of at least 12 weeks' duration using empagliflozin treatment in patients with T2DM. Results: When given as monotherapy or in combination therapy (as add-on or single-pill therapy with metformin, pioglitazone, sulfonylurea, linagliptin, and insulin, empagliflozin produced clinically meaningful reductions in glycated hemoglobin levels, plasma glucose concentrations, bodyweight, and blood pressure. These changes were sustained during long-term treatment. In a dedicated cardiovascular event trial, empagliflozin on top of standard of care demonstrated a significant reduction in the risk of cardiovascular mortality and all-cause mortality. Across the clinical trials, empagliflozin combination therapies were well tolerated, and empagliflozin used alone was not associated with increased risk of hypoglycemia versus placebo. Indeed, the combination of empagliflozin and metformin had a significantly reduced rate of hypoglycemia compared with the combination of metformin and a sulfonylurea. On the other hand, empagliflozin treatment did have increased risk of genital infections compared with placebo. In clinical trials to date, diabetic ketoacidosis was not seen more frequently with empagliflozin than with placebo, but physicians should be alert to the possibility of this rare event. Conclusion: Empagliflozin has the potential to make an important contribution to the treatment of patients with T2DM. In some patients, empagliflozin may be used as monotherapy, but it is most likely to be used in combination with other

  16. Short-term versus long-term heart rate variability in ischemic cardiomyopathy risk stratification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreas eVoss

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available In industrialized countries with aging populations, heart failure affects 0.3%-2% of the general population. The investigation of 24h-ECG recordings revealed the potential of nonlinear indices of heart rate variability (HRV for enhanced risk stratification in patients with ischemic heart failure (IHF. However, long-term analyses are time-consuming, expensive and delay the initial diagnosis. The objective of this study was to investigate whether 30min short-term HRV analysis is sufficient for comparable risk stratification in IHF in comparison to 24h-HRV analysis. From 256 IHF patients (221 at low risk (IHFLR and 35 at high risk (IHFHR a 24h beat-to-beat time series b the first 30min segment c the 30min most stationary day segment and d the 30min most stationary night segment were investigated. We calculated linear (time and frequency domain and nonlinear HRV analysis indices. Optimal parameter sets for risk stratification in IHF were determined for 24 hours and for each 30min segment by applying discriminant analysis on significant clinical and non-clinical indices. Long- and short-term HRV indices from frequency domain and particularly from nonlinear dynamics revealed high univariate significances (p

  17. Cardiac arrhythmia detection using combination of heart rate variability analyses and PUCK analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahananto, Faizal; Igasaki, Tomohiko; Murayama, Nobuki

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents cardiac arrhythmia detection using the combination of a heart rate variability (HRV) analysis and a "potential of unbalanced complex kinetics" (PUCK) analysis. Detection performance was improved by adding features extracted from the PUCK analysis. Initially, R-R interval data were extracted from the original electrocardiogram (ECG) recordings and were cut into small segments and marked as either normal or arrhythmia. HRV analyses then were conducted using the segmented R-R interval data, including a time-domain analysis, frequency-domain analysis, and nonlinear analysis. In addition to the HRV analysis, PUCK analysis, which has been implemented successfully in a foreign exchange market series to characterize change, was employed. A decision-tree algorithm was applied to all of the obtained features for classification. The proposed method was tested using the MIT-BIH arrhythmia database and had an overall classification accuracy of 91.73%. After combining features obtained from the PUCK analysis, the overall accuracy increased to 92.91%. Therefore, we suggest that the use of a PUCK analysis in conjunction with HRV analysis might improve performance accuracy for the detection of cardiac arrhythmia.

  18. Planning uncertainties, market risks and new environmental choices: Winning least cost planning combinations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Violette, D.; Lang, C.

    1990-01-01

    Utility demand and supply-side planners will face new challenges from environmental regulations. Under current proposals, every ton of pollutant will have a cost to utilities, not just the tons that put them over the allowable limit. Planners will have to account for these new costs. To do this, planners need to start tracking emissions implementation actions today, and begin strategies for future regulatory changes. Current legislative proposals include a tax on the carbon content of fuels to curb emissions of greenhouse gases and substantial reductions in sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxide emissions. The important issue for planners is the flexible compliance requirements within these regulatory changes. The acid rain proposals, for example, include a market-based emissions trading system for emissions allowances. Whenever there is a competitive market, there are market risks, and potential winners and losers. Utilities need to be prepared to analyze and mitigate these risks. Integrated least cost planing is one way a utility will have to meet this challenge. Planning involves uncertainty and risk. The wide array of compliance choices create countless combinations of strategies for utilities to comply with the new emissions regulations. This paper discusses new compliance strategies, demand-side management (DSM) as a compliance strategy, solutions to DSM traps, and the compliance strategy game

  19. Interest Rate Swaps

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marina Pepić

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Interest rates changes have a huge impact on the business performance. Therefore, it is of great importance for the market participants to identify and adequately manage this risk. Financial derivatives are a relatively simple way of protection from adverse changes in interest rates. Interest rate swaps are particularly popular because they reduce interest rate risk to a minimum with a relatively low initial cost and without great risk, but also because of the fact that there are manymodifications of the standard swap created to better satisfy the different needs of market players.

  20. Interest rate derivatives

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Svenstrup, Mikkel

    This Ph.D. thesis consists of four self-contained essays on valuation of interest rate derivatives. In particular derivatives related to management of interest rate risk care are considered.......This Ph.D. thesis consists of four self-contained essays on valuation of interest rate derivatives. In particular derivatives related to management of interest rate risk care are considered....

  1. Risk adjustment models for interhospital comparison of CS rates using Robson's ten group classification system and other socio-demographic and clinical variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colais, Paola; Fantini, Maria P; Fusco, Danilo; Carretta, Elisa; Stivanello, Elisa; Lenzi, Jacopo; Pieri, Giulia; Perucci, Carlo A

    2012-06-21

    Caesarean section (CS) rate is a quality of health care indicator frequently used at national and international level. The aim of this study was to assess whether adjustment for Robson's Ten Group Classification System (TGCS), and clinical and socio-demographic variables of the mother and the fetus is necessary for inter-hospital comparisons of CS rates. The study population includes 64,423 deliveries in Emilia-Romagna between January 1, 2003 and December 31, 2004, classified according to theTGCS. Poisson regression was used to estimate crude and adjusted hospital relative risks of CS compared to a reference category. Analyses were carried out in the overall population and separately according to the Robson groups (groups I, II, III, IV and V-X combined). Adjusted relative risks (RR) of CS were estimated using two risk-adjustment models; the first (M1) including the TGCS group as the only adjustment factor; the second (M2) including in addition demographic and clinical confounders identified using a stepwise selection procedure. Percentage variations between crude and adjusted RRs by hospital were calculated to evaluate the confounding effect of covariates. The percentage variations from crude to adjusted RR proved to be similar in M1 and M2 model. However, stratified analyses by Robson's classification groups showed that residual confounding for clinical and demographic variables was present in groups I (nulliparous, single, cephalic, ≥37 weeks, spontaneous labour) and III (multiparous, excluding previous CS, single, cephalic, ≥37 weeks, spontaneous labour) and IV (multiparous, excluding previous CS, single, cephalic, ≥37 weeks, induced or CS before labour) and to a minor extent in groups II (nulliparous, single, cephalic, ≥37 weeks, induced or CS before labour) and IV (multiparous, excluding previous CS, single, cephalic, ≥37 weeks, induced or CS before labour). The TGCS classification is useful for inter-hospital comparison of CS section rates, but

  2. Combined Clinical Parameters and Multiparametric Magnetic Resonance Imaging for Advanced Risk Modeling of Prostate Cancer-Patient-tailored Risk Stratification Can Reduce Unnecessary Biopsies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radtke, Jan Philipp; Wiesenfarth, Manuel; Kesch, Claudia; Freitag, Martin T; Alt, Celine D; Celik, Kamil; Distler, Florian; Roth, Wilfried; Wieczorek, Kathrin; Stock, Christian; Duensing, Stefan; Roethke, Matthias C; Teber, Dogu; Schlemmer, Heinz-Peter; Hohenfellner, Markus; Bonekamp, David; Hadaschik, Boris A

    2017-12-01

    Multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (mpMRI) is gaining widespread acceptance in prostate cancer (PC) diagnosis and improves significant PC (sPC; Gleason score≥3+4) detection. Decision making based on European Randomised Study of Screening for PC (ERSPC) risk-calculator (RC) parameters may overcome prostate-specific antigen (PSA) limitations. We added pre-biopsy mpMRI to ERSPC-RC parameters and developed risk models (RMs) to predict individual sPC risk for biopsy-naïve men and men after previous biopsy. We retrospectively analyzed clinical parameters of 1159 men who underwent mpMRI prior to MRI/transrectal ultrasound fusion biopsy between 2012 and 2015. Multivariate regression analyses were used to determine significant sPC predictors for RM development. The prediction performance was compared with ERSPC-RCs, RCs refitted on our cohort, Prostate Imaging Reporting and Data System (PI-RADS) v1.0, and ERSPC-RC plus PI-RADSv1.0 using receiver-operating characteristics (ROCs). Discrimination and calibration of the RM, as well as net decision and reduction curve analyses were evaluated based on resampling methods. PSA, prostate volume, digital-rectal examination, and PI-RADS were significant sPC predictors and included in the RMs together with age. The ROC area under the curve of the RM for biopsy-naïve men was comparable with ERSPC-RC3 plus PI-RADSv1.0 (0.83 vs 0.84) but larger compared with ERSPC-RC3 (0.81), refitted RC3 (0.80), and PI-RADS (0.76). For postbiopsy men, the novel RM's discrimination (0.81) was higher, compared with PI-RADS (0.78), ERSPC-RC4 (0.66), refitted RC4 (0.76), and ERSPC-RC4 plus PI-RADSv1.0 (0.78). Both RM benefits exceeded those of ERSPC-RCs and PI-RADS in the decision regarding which patient to receive biopsy and enabled the highest reduction rate of unnecessary biopsies. Limitations include a monocentric design and a lack of PI-RADSv2.0. The novel RMs, incorporating clinical parameters and PI-RADS, performed significantly better

  3. Withdrawal rates as a consequence of disclosure of risk associated with manipulation of the cervical spine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Forrest Lianne

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The risk associated with cervical manipulation is controversial. Research in this area is widely variable but as yet the risk is not easily quantifiable. This presents a problem when informing the patient of risks when seeking consent and information may be withheld due to the fear of patient withdrawal from care. As yet, there is a lack of research into the frequency of risk disclosure and consequent withdrawal from manipulative treatment as a result. This study seeks to investigate the reality of this and to obtain insight into the attitudes of chiropractors towards informed consent and disclosure. Methods Questionnaires were posted to 200 UK chiropractors randomly selected from the register of the General Chiropractic Council. Results A response rate of 46% (n = 92 was achieved. Thirty-three per cent (n = 30 respondents were female and the mean number of years in practice was 10. Eighty-eight per cent considered explanation of the risks associated with any recommended treatment important when obtaining informed consent. However, only 45% indicated they always discuss this with patients in need of cervical manipulation. When asked whether they believed discussing the possibility of a serious adverse reaction to cervical manipulation could increase patient anxiety to the extent there was a strong possibility the patient would refuse treatment, 46% said they believed this could happen. Nonetheless, 80% said they believed they had a moral/ethical obligation to disclose risk associated with cervical manipulation despite these concerns. The estimated number of withdrawals throughout respondents' time in practice was estimated at 1 patient withdrawal for every 2 years in practice. Conclusion The withdrawal rate from cervical manipulation as a direct consequence of the disclosure of associated serious risks appears unfounded. However, notwithstanding legal obligations, reluctance to disclose risk due to fear of increasing patient

  4. Combination of high-dose rate brachytherapy and external beam radiotherapy for the treatment of advanced scalp angiosarcoma - case report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gentil, Andre Cavalcanti; Lima Junior, Carlos Genesio Bezerra; Soboll, Danyel Scheidegger; Novaes, Paulo Eduardo R.S.; Pereira, Adelino Jose; Pellizon, Antonio Carlos Assis

    2001-01-01

    The authors report a case of a patient with an extensive angiosarcoma of the scalp that was submitted only to radiotherapy with a combination of orthovoltage roentgentherapy and high-dose rate brachytherapy, using a mould. The clinical and technical features as well as the therapeutic outcome are presented, and the usefulness and peculiarities of high-dose rate brachytherapy for this particular indication is discussed. A comparative analysis of the difficulties and limitations of employing low-dose rate brachytherapy is also presented. The authors concluded that high-dose rate brachytherapy might be an useful, practical and safe option to treat neoplastic lesions of the scalp, and an alternative treatment to electrontherapy. (author)

  5. Combined and Relative Effect Levels of Perceived Risk, Knowledge, Optimism, Pessimism, and Social Trust on Anxiety among Inhabitants Concerning Living on Heavy Metal Contaminated Soil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Zhongjun; Guo, Zengli; Zhou, Li; Xue, Shengguo; Zhu, Qinfeng; Zhu, Huike

    2016-11-02

    This research aims at combined and relative effect levels on anxiety of: (1) perceived risk, knowledge, optimism, pessimism, and social trust; and (2) four sub-variables of social trust among inhabitants concerning living on heavy metal contaminated soil. On the basis of survey data from 499 Chinese respondents, results suggest that perceived risk, pessimism, optimism, and social trust have individual, significant, and direct effects on anxiety, while knowledge does not. Knowledge has significant, combined, and interactive effects on anxiety together with social trust and pessimism, respectively, but does not with perceived risk and optimism. Social trust, perceived risk, pessimism, knowledge, and optimism have significantly combined effects on anxiety; the five variables as a whole have stronger predictive values than each one individually. Anxiety is influenced firstly by social trust and secondly by perceived risk, pessimism, knowledge, and optimism. Each of four sub-variables of social trust has an individual, significant, and negative effect on anxiety. When introducing four sub-variables into one model, trust in social organizations and in the government have significantly combined effects on anxiety, while trust in experts and in friends and relatives do not; anxiety is influenced firstly by trust in social organization, and secondly by trust in the government.

  6. A combined microfinance and training intervention can reduce HIV risk behaviour in young female participants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pronyk, Paul M; Kim, Julia C; Abramsky, Tanya; Phetla, Godfrey; Hargreaves, James R; Morison, Linda A; Watts, Charlotte; Busza, Joanna; Porter, John Dh

    2008-08-20

    To assess effects of a combined microfinance and training intervention on HIV risk behavior among young female participants in rural South Africa. : Secondary analysis of quantitative and qualitative data from a cluster randomized trial, the Intervention with Microfinance for AIDS and Gender Equity study. Eight villages were pair-matched and randomly allocated to receive the intervention. At baseline and after 2 years, HIV risk behavior was assessed among female participants aged 14-35 years. Their responses were compared with women of the same age and poverty group from control villages. Intervention effects were calculated using adjusted risk ratios employing village level summaries. Qualitative data collected during the study explored participants' responses to the intervention including HIV risk behavior. After 2 years of follow-up, when compared with controls, young participants had higher levels of HIV-related communication (adjusted risk ratio 1.46, 95% confidence interval 1.01-2.12), were more likely to have accessed voluntary counseling and testing (adjusted risk ratio 1.64, 95% confidence interval 1.06-2.56), and less likely to have had unprotected sex at last intercourse with a nonspousal partner (adjusted risk ratio 0.76, 95% confidence interval 0.60-0.96). Qualitative data suggest a greater acceptance of intrahousehold communication about HIV and sexuality. Although women noted challenges associated with acceptance of condoms by men, increased confidence and skills associated with participation in the intervention supported their introduction in sexual relationships. In addition to impacts on economic well being, women's empowerment and intimate partner violence, interventions addressing the economic and social vulnerability of women may contribute to reductions in HIV risk behavior.

  7. Effects of stochastic interest rates in decision making under risk: A Markov decision process model for forest management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mo Zhou; Joseph Buongiorno

    2011-01-01

    Most economic studies of forest decision making under risk assume a fixed interest rate. This paper investigated some implications of this stochastic nature of interest rates. Markov decision process (MDP) models, used previously to integrate stochastic stand growth and prices, can be extended to include variable interest rates as well. This method was applied to...

  8. Real time risk analysis of kick detection: Testing and validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Islam, Rakibul; Khan, Faisal; Venkatesan, Ramchandran

    2017-01-01

    Oil and gas development is moving into harsh and remote locations where the highest level of safety is required. A blowout is one of the most feared accidents in oil and gas developments projects. The main objective of this paper is to test and validate the kick detection of blowout risk assessment model using uniquely developed experimental results. Kick detection is a major part of the blowout risk assessment model. The accuracy and timeliness of kick detection are dependent on the monitoring of multiple downhole parameters such as downhole pressure, fluid density, fluid conductivity and mass flow rate. In the present study these four parameters are considered in different logical combinations to assess the occurrence of kick and associated blowout risk. The assessed results are compared against the experimental observations. It is observed that simultaneous monitoring of mass flow rate combined with any one the three parameters provides most reliable detection of kick and potential blowout likelihood. The current work presents the framework for a dynamic risk assessment and management model. Upon success testing of this approach at the pilot and field levels, this approach could provide a paradigm shift in drilling safety. - Highlights: • A novel dynamic risk model of kick detection and blowout prediction. • Testing and Validation of the risk model. • Application of the dynamic risk model.

  9. Combined Effect of Heating Rate and Microalloying Elements on Recrystallization During Annealing of Dual-Phase Steels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bellavoine, Marion; Dumont, Myriam; Drillet, Josée; Hébert, Véronique; Maugis, Philippe

    2018-05-01

    Adjusting ferrite recrystallization kinetics during annealing is a way to control the final microstructure and thus the mechanical properties of advanced cold-rolled high-strength steels. Two strategies are commonly used for this purpose: adjusting heating rates and/or adding microalloying elements. The present work investigates the effect of heating rate and microalloying elements Ti, Nb, and Mo on recrystallization kinetics during annealing in various cold-rolled Dual-Phase steel grades. The use of combined experimental and modeling approaches allows a deeper understanding of the separate influence of heating rate and the addition of microalloying elements. The comparative effect of Ti, Nb, and Mo as solute elements and as precipitates on ferrite recrystallization is also clarified. It is shown that solute drag has the largest delaying effect on recrystallization in the present case and that the order of solute drag effectiveness of microalloying elements is Nb > Mo > Ti.

  10. The risk of fetal loss associated with invasive testing following combined first trimester risk screening for Down syndrome - a national cohort of 147 987 singleton pregnancies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wulff, Camilla Bernt; Gerds, Thomas Alexander; Rode, Line

    2016-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To assess prospectively the risk of fetal loss associated with chorionic villus sampling (CVS) and amniocentesis (AC) following combined first-trimester screening (cFTS) for Down syndrome. METHODS: This was a nationwide population-based study (Danish Fetal Medicine Database, 2008...

  11. Döviz Kuru Riski Yönetimi: Türkiye Tütün Endüstrisi Örneği (Exchange Rate Risk Management: The Case Of Turkish Tobacco Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Murat DOĞANAY

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The exchange rate movements, along with globalization, have become more important not only for financial institutions but also for real sector companies. Also exchange rate risk is important for non-financial companies regards to both assets and liabilities. Management of this exchange rate risk exposure has an impact on competitiveness of these companies. This paper reviews the impact level of exchange rate movements, determination of the structure of exchange rate risk position on the basis of currency and also determination of the approaches to exchange rate risk management in the tobacco industry which has very high concentration level. It’s found that the firms want to hedge against the exchange rate risk particularly in the export transactions. A significant number of firms don’t use exchange rate risk management systematically. The firms prefer operational hedging much more than financial hedging. The primarily reasons of not using financial tools in the exchange rate risk management are the presence of import transactions and the expectation of exchange rate increase. Finally, it’s concluded that the firms use foreign currency loans as a tool for exchange rate risk management in order to balance their exchange rate risk position.

  12. Risk factors for breast cancer in a population with high incidence rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wrensch, Margaret; Peskin-Mentzer, Roni; Quesenberry, Charles P Jr; Souders-Mason, Virginia; Spence, Linda; Suzuki, Marisa; Gould, Mary; Chew, Terri; Farren, Georgianna; Barlow, Janice; Belli, Flavia; Clarke, Christina; Erdmann, Christine A; Lee, Marion; Moghadassi, Michelle

    2003-01-01

    This report examines generally recognized breast cancer risk factors and years of residence in Marin County, California, an area with high breast cancer incidence and mortality rates. Eligible women who were residents of Marin County diagnosed with breast cancer in 1997–99 and women without breast cancer obtained through random digit dialing, frequency-matched by cases' age at diagnosis and ethnicity, participated in either full in-person or abbreviated telephone interviews. In multivariate analyses, 285 cases were statistically significantly more likely than 286 controls to report being premenopausal, never to have used birth control pills, a lower highest lifetime body mass index, four or more mammograms in 1990–94, beginning drinking after the age of 21, on average drinking two or more drinks per day, the highest quartile of pack-years of cigarette smoking and having been raised in an organized religion. Cases and controls did not significantly differ with regard to having a first-degree relative with breast cancer, a history of benign breast biopsy, previous radiation treatment, age at menarche, parity, use of hormone replacement therapy, age of first living in Marin County, or total years lived in Marin County. Results for several factors differed for women aged under 50 years or 50 years and over. Despite similar distributions of several known breast cancer risk factors, case-control differences in alcohol consumption suggest that risk in this high-risk population might be modifiable. Intensive study of this or other areas of similarly high incidence might reveal other important risk factors proximate to diagnosis

  13. DIGITAL FLOOD INSURANCE RATE MAP DATABASE, DODGE COUNTY, WISCONSIN, USA - MIP Dodge Portion Upper Rock River Watershed RiskMap DFIRM Update

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Emergency Management Agency, Department of Homeland Security — The Digital Flood Insurance Rate Map (DFIRM) Database depicts flood risk information and supporting data used to develop the risk data. The primary risk;...

  14. The influence of maternity units' intrapartum intervention rates and midwives' risk perception for women suitable for midwifery-led care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mead, Marianne M P; Kornbrot, Diana

    2004-03-01

    to test the hypothesis that midwives working in higher intervention units would have a higher perception of risk for the intrapartum care of women suitable for midwifery-led care than midwives working in lower intervention units. an initial retrospective analysis of the computerised records of 9887 healthy Caucasian women in spontaneous labour enabled the categorisation of 11 units as either 'lower intrapartum intervention' or 'higher intrapartum intervention' units. A survey of the midwives involved in intrapartum care in these 11 units, using standardised scenario questionnaires, was used to investigate midwives' options for intrapartum interventions, their perceptions of intrapartum risk and the accuracy of these perceptions in the light of actual maternity outcomes. midwives working in maternity units that had a higher level of intervention generally perceived intrapartum risks to be higher than midwives working in lower intervention units. However, midwives generally underestimated the ability of women to progress normally and overestimated the advantages of technological interventions, in particular epidural analgesia. variations in intrapartum care cannot be solely explained by the characteristics of the women. The influence of the workplace culture plays a significant role in shaping midwives' perceptions of risk, but it seems even more likely that the medicalisation of childbirth has had an influence on midwives' appreciation of intrapartum risks. Intervention rates for low-risk births are often higher than recommended by research. The level of interventions varies across hospitals and higher rates are associated with higher perception of risk by midwives. Attention needs to be given to the influence the workplace plays in shaping midwives' perception of risk; and to the effect of organisational culture on intervention rates.

  15. F8 haplotype and inhibitor risk: results from the Hemophilia Inhibitor Genetics Study (HIGS) Combined Cohort

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwarz, John; Astermark, Jan; Menius, Erika D.; Carrington, Mary; Donfield, Sharyne M.; Gomperts, Edward D.; Nelson, George W.; Oldenburg, Johannes; Pavlova, Anna; Shapiro, Amy D.; Winkler, Cheryl A.; Berntorp, Erik

    2012-01-01

    Background Ancestral background, specifically African descent, confers higher risk for development of inhibitory antibodies to factor VIII (FVIII) in hemophilia A. It has been suggested that differences in the distribution of factor VIII gene (F8) haplotypes, and mismatch between endogenous F8 haplotypes and those comprising products used for treatment could contribute to risk. Design and Methods Data from the HIGS Combined Cohort were used to determine the association between F8 haplotype 3 (H3) vs. haplotypes 1 and 2 (H1+H2) and inhibitor risk among individuals of genetically-determined African descent. Other variables known to affect inhibitor risk including type of F8 mutation and HLA were included in the analysis. A second research question regarding risk related to mismatch in endogenous F8 haplotype and recombinant FVIII products used for treatment was addressed. Results H3 was associated with higher inhibitor risk among those genetically-identified (N=49) as of African ancestry, but the association did not remain significant after adjustment for F8 mutation type and the HLA variables. Among subjects of all racial ancestries enrolled in HIGS who reported early use of recombinant products (N=223), mismatch in endogenous haplotype and the FVIII proteins constituting the products used did not confer greater risk for inhibitor development. Conclusion H3 was not an independent predictor of inhibitor risk. Further, our findings did not support a higher risk of inhibitors in the presence of a haplotype mismatch between the FVIII molecule infused and that of the individual. PMID:22958194

  16. A regression tree for identifying combinations of fall risk factors associated to recurrent falling: a cross-sectional elderly population-based study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kabeshova, A; Annweiler, C; Fantino, B; Philip, T; Gromov, V A; Launay, C P; Beauchet, O

    2014-06-01

    Regression tree (RT) analyses are particularly adapted to explore the risk of recurrent falling according to various combinations of fall risk factors compared to logistic regression models. The aims of this study were (1) to determine which combinations of fall risk factors were associated with the occurrence of recurrent falls in older community-dwellers, and (2) to compare the efficacy of RT and multiple logistic regression model for the identification of recurrent falls. A total of 1,760 community-dwelling volunteers (mean age ± standard deviation, 71.0 ± 5.1 years; 49.4 % female) were recruited prospectively in this cross-sectional study. Age, gender, polypharmacy, use of psychoactive drugs, fear of falling (FOF), cognitive disorders and sad mood were recorded. In addition, the history of falls within the past year was recorded using a standardized questionnaire. Among 1,760 participants, 19.7 % (n = 346) were recurrent fallers. The RT identified 14 nodes groups and 8 end nodes with FOF as the first major split. Among participants with FOF, those who had sad mood and polypharmacy formed the end node with the greatest OR for recurrent falls (OR = 6.06 with p falls (OR = 0.25 with p factors for recurrent falls, the combination most associated with recurrent falls involving FOF, sad mood and polypharmacy. The FOF emerged as the risk factor strongly associated with recurrent falls. In addition, RT and multiple logistic regression were not sensitive enough to identify the majority of recurrent fallers but appeared efficient in detecting individuals not at risk of recurrent falls.

  17. Survival benefit associated with adjuvant androgen deprivation therapy combined with radiotherapy for high- and low-risk patients with nonmetastatic prostate cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zeliadt, Steven B.; Potosky, Arnold L.; Penson, David F.; Etzioni, Ruth

    2006-01-01

    Background: The use of adjuvant androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) combined with radiotherapy has become common in low-risk patients, although clinical trials have focused primarily on high-risk patients. This study examines the effectiveness of adjuvant ADT combined with radiotherapy for a wide range of patients treated in the 1990s. Methods and Materials: Prostate cancer survival was examined in a population based cohort of 31,643 patients aged 65 to 85 years who were diagnosed with nonmetastatic prostate cancer and treated with external beam radiotherapy and/or brachytherapy. Instrumental variable analysis methods were used to control for selection bias. Results: Patients with stage T3/T4 disease who received adjuvant ADT experienced improved 5-year and 8-year survival. No survival advantage was observed for men with T1/T2 disease during this interval. Conclusion: High-risk patients who receive primary radiotherapy have benefited from adjuvant ADT, whereas low-risk patients with disease confined to the prostate have not yet benefited from adjuvant therapy within the first 8 years after treatment. These findings are consistent with practice guidelines, which recommend adjuvant ADT for patients with high-risk disease

  18. Combined impact of lead, cadmium, polychlorinated biphenyls and non-chemical risk factors on blood pressure in NHANES

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peters, Junenette L.; Patricia Fabian, M.; Levy, Jonathan I.

    2014-01-01

    High blood pressure is associated with exposure to multiple chemical and non-chemical risk factors, but epidemiological analyses to date have not assessed the combined effects of both chemical and non-chemical stressors on human populations in the context of cumulative risk assessment. We developed a novel modeling approach to evaluate the combined impact of lead, cadmium, polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), and multiple non-chemical risk factors on four blood pressure measures using data for adults aged ≥20 years from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (1999–2008). We developed predictive models for chemical and other stressors. Structural equation models were applied to account for complex associations among predictors of stressors as well as blood pressure. Models showed that blood lead, serum PCBs, and established non-chemical stressors were significantly associated with blood pressure. Lead was the chemical stressor most predictive of diastolic blood pressure and mean arterial pressure, while PCBs had a greater influence on systolic blood pressure and pulse pressure, and blood cadmium was not a significant predictor of blood pressure. The simultaneously fit exposure models explained 34%, 43% and 52% of the variance for lead, cadmium and PCBs, respectively. The structural equation models were developed using predictors available from public data streams (e.g., U.S. Census), which would allow the models to be applied to any U.S. population exposed to these multiple stressors in order to identify high risk subpopulations, direct intervention strategies, and inform public policy. - Highlights: • We evaluated joint impact of chemical and non-chemical stressors on blood pressure. • We built predictive models for lead, cadmium and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). • Our approach allows joint evaluation of predictors from population-specific data. • Lead, PCBs and established non-chemical stressors were related to blood pressure.

  19. Combined impact of lead, cadmium, polychlorinated biphenyls and non-chemical risk factors on blood pressure in NHANES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peters, Junenette L., E-mail: petersj@bu.edu; Patricia Fabian, M., E-mail: pfabian@bu.edu; Levy, Jonathan I., E-mail: jonlevy@bu.edu

    2014-07-15

    High blood pressure is associated with exposure to multiple chemical and non-chemical risk factors, but epidemiological analyses to date have not assessed the combined effects of both chemical and non-chemical stressors on human populations in the context of cumulative risk assessment. We developed a novel modeling approach to evaluate the combined impact of lead, cadmium, polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), and multiple non-chemical risk factors on four blood pressure measures using data for adults aged ≥20 years from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (1999–2008). We developed predictive models for chemical and other stressors. Structural equation models were applied to account for complex associations among predictors of stressors as well as blood pressure. Models showed that blood lead, serum PCBs, and established non-chemical stressors were significantly associated with blood pressure. Lead was the chemical stressor most predictive of diastolic blood pressure and mean arterial pressure, while PCBs had a greater influence on systolic blood pressure and pulse pressure, and blood cadmium was not a significant predictor of blood pressure. The simultaneously fit exposure models explained 34%, 43% and 52% of the variance for lead, cadmium and PCBs, respectively. The structural equation models were developed using predictors available from public data streams (e.g., U.S. Census), which would allow the models to be applied to any U.S. population exposed to these multiple stressors in order to identify high risk subpopulations, direct intervention strategies, and inform public policy. - Highlights: • We evaluated joint impact of chemical and non-chemical stressors on blood pressure. • We built predictive models for lead, cadmium and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). • Our approach allows joint evaluation of predictors from population-specific data. • Lead, PCBs and established non-chemical stressors were related to blood pressure.

  20. Risk identification for quality on stage of pharmaceutical development of combined eye drops for glaucoma treatment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Олександр Миколайович Якубчук

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Aim: To identify the possible risks associated with critical quality attribute of combined eye drops for the treatment of glaucoma using of common risk evaluation methodologies for plannig a drug quality on the stage of pharmaceutical development. Methods: The paper used method of causal analysis. The maximal number of factors has been define to identify potential factors that provide most significant impact on the drug quality and Ishikawa diagram - graphical representation of causes and effects has been built.Results: Analysis allowed to organize the possible factors affecting the drug quality in the generalized categories: quality control methods, medicines and excipients, primary packaging, proper manufacturing conditions and the stage of the process. The most important factors that are carriers of the risk factors and may lead to negative effects have been identified for the generalized categories.Conclusions: Determined at the stage of pharmaceutical development potential critical quality attribute of AFI, excipients and primary packaging, critical parameters of the process, provide a better understanding, reduction and adoption of risk in subsequent stages of the life cycle of the drug

  1. Mortality and recurrence rates among systemically untreated high risk breast cancer patients included in the DBCG 77 trials

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Maj Britt; Nielsen, Torsten O.; Knoop, Ann S.

    2018-01-01

    Background: Following loco-regional treatment for early breast cancer accurate prognostication is essential for communicating benefits of systemic treatment. The aim of this study was to determine time to recurrence and long-term mortality rates in high risk patients according to patient characte......Background: Following loco-regional treatment for early breast cancer accurate prognostication is essential for communicating benefits of systemic treatment. The aim of this study was to determine time to recurrence and long-term mortality rates in high risk patients according to patient...... and EGFR positive. Multivariate categorical and fractional polynomials (MFP) models were used to construct prognostic subsets by clinicopathologic characteristics. Results: In a multivariate model, mortality rate was significantly associated with age, tumor size, nodal status, invasion, histological type...

  2. Risk-based determination of design pressure of LNG fuel storage tanks based on dynamic process simulation combined with Monte Carlo method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noh, Yeelyong; Chang, Kwangpil; Seo, Yutaek; Chang, Daejun

    2014-01-01

    This study proposes a new methodology that combines dynamic process simulation (DPS) and Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) to determine the design pressure of fuel storage tanks on LNG-fueled ships. Because the pressure of such tanks varies with time, DPS is employed to predict the pressure profile. Though equipment failure and subsequent repair affect transient pressure development, it is difficult to implement these features directly in the process simulation due to the randomness of the failure. To predict the pressure behavior realistically, MCS is combined with DPS. In MCS, discrete events are generated to create a lifetime scenario for a system. The combination of MCS with long-term DPS reveals the frequency of the exceedance pressure. The exceedance curve of the pressure provides risk-based information for determining the design pressure based on risk acceptance criteria, which may vary with different points of view. - Highlights: • The realistic operation scenario of the LNG FGS system is estimated by MCS. • In repeated MCS trials, the availability of the FGS system is evaluated. • The realistic pressure profile is obtained by the proposed methodology. • The exceedance curve provides risk-based information for determining design pressure

  3. Suicide Risk by Military Occupation in the DoD Active Component Population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trofimovich, Lily; Reger, Mark A.; Luxton, David D.; Oetjen-Gerdes, Lynne A.

    2013-01-01

    Suicide risk based on occupational cohorts within the U.S. military was investigated. Rates of suicide based on military occupational categories were computed for the Department of Defense (DoD) active component population between 2001 and 2010. The combined infantry, gun crews, and seamanship specialist group was at increased risk of suicide…

  4. The efficacy of black cumin seed (Nigella sativa) oil and hypoglycemic drug combination to reduce HbA1c level in patients with metabolic syndrome risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rachman, P. N. R.; Akrom; Darmawan, E.

    2017-11-01

    Metabolic syndrome is a conditions caused by metabolic abnormalities include central obesity, atherogenic dyslipidemia, hypertension, and insulin resistance. HbA1c examination is required to study the long-term glycemic status and to prevent diabetic complications of metabolic syndrome. The purpose of this study is to determine the efficacy of black cumin seed (Nigella sativa) oil and hypoglycemic drug combination to reduce HbA1c level in patients with metabolic syndrome risk. This research performed using an experimental randomized single - blind controlled trial design. A total of 99 outpatients at the Jetis I Public Health Center, Yogyakarta, Indonesia with metabolic syndrome risk were divided into three groups: The control group received placebo and two treatment groups received black seed oil orally at dose of 1.5 mL/day and 3 mL/day, respectively, for 20 days. The clinical conditions such as blood pressure, pulse rate, BMI, blood glucose serum and HbA1c levels were examined on day 0 and 21. The results obtained were analyzed with one-way ANOVA test. The mean of HbA1c levels of all groups before treatment was higher than the normal values and there was no significant difference in HbA1c value on day 0. Administration of 1.5 and 3 mL/day of black seed oil for 20 days decreased (padministration of black cumin seed oil and hypoglycemic drug combination for 20 days in patients at risk of metabolic syndrome may reduce to HbA1c levels.

  5. A combination of clinical balance measures and FRAX® to improve identification of high-risk fallers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Najafi, David A; Dahlberg, Leif E; Hansson, Eva Ekvall

    2016-05-03

    The FRAX® algorithm quantifies a patient's 10-year probability of a hip or major osteoporotic fracture without taking an individual's balance into account. Balance measures assess the functional ability of an individual and the FRAX® algorithm is a model that integrates the individual patients clinical risk factors [not balance] and bone mineral density. Thus, clinical balance measures capture aspects that the FRAX® algorithm does not, and vice versa. It is therefore possible that combining FRAX® and clinical balance measures can improve the identification of patients at high fall risk and thereby high fracture risk. Our study aim was to explore whether there is an association between clinical balance measures and fracture prediction obtained from FRAX®. A cross-sectional study design was used where post hoc was performed on a dataset of 82 participants (54 to 89 years of age, mean age 71.4, 77 female), with a fall-related wrist-fracture between 2008 and 2012. Balance was measured by tandem stance, standing one leg, walking in the figure of eight, walking heel to toe on a line, walking as fast as possible for 30 m and five times sit to stand balance measures [tandem stance and standing one leg measured first with open and then with closed eyes] and each one analyzed for bivariate relations with the 10-year probability values for hip and major osteoporotic fractures as calculated by FRAX® using Spearman's rank correlation test. Individuals with high FRAX® values had poor outcome in balance measures; however the significance level of the correlation differed between tests. Standing one leg eyes closed had strongest correlation to FRAX® (0.610 p = balance measures and FRAX®. Hence, the use of clinical balance measures and FRAX® in combination, might improve the identification of individuals with high risk of falls and thereby following fractures. Results enable healthcare providers to optimize treatment and prevention of fall-related fractures. The study has

  6. Prior rates of visual field loss and lifetime risk of blindness in glaucomatous patients undergoing trabeculectomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foulsham, W S; Fu, L; Tatham, A J

    2015-10-01

    Trend-based analyses examining rates of visual field (VF) loss in glaucoma are useful for predicting risk of vision-related morbidity. Although patients with faster losses are likely to require treatment escalation, little is known about rates that might trigger a decision to intervene surgically. The aims of this study were to investigate prior rates of VF loss in patients attending for trabeculectomy and to estimate, in the absence of surgical intervention, lifetime risk of visual impairment, and blindness. A retrospective analysis of 117 eyes of 86 consecutive patients with glaucoma attending for trabeculectomy, including 53 patients referred from general ophthalmology clinics and 33 patients from specialist glaucoma clinics. Rates of change in standard automated perimetry mean deviation were examined using linear regression and random coefficient models. Risk of lifetime visual impairment and blindness was calculated using life expectancy data. Mean age at surgery was 71.0±9.7 years. Patients were followed for 10.7±7.5 years prior to surgery with an average of seven useable fields per eye. On average patients referred from general clinics lost 1.04 dB/year compared with 0.77 dB/year in those referred from glaucoma clinics (P=0.070). Patients referred from general clinics had more medication changes prior to surgery (3.4 and 2.6 changes, respectively; P=0.004). Given Scottish life expectancy data, untreated, 61 eyes (52%) would have passed the threshold for visual impairment, whereas 40 (34%) would have passed the threshold demarcating blindness. Patients attending for trabeculectomy had faster average rates of field loss prior to surgery than published values for the general glaucoma population with over one-third of eyes studied predicted to have become blind without intervention. Those managed by glaucoma specialists had fewer changes in medication and tended to slower rates of VF loss, although the latter did not reach statistical significance.

  7. Rates of Delirium Diagnosis Do Not Improve with Emergency Risk Screening: Results of the Emergency Department Delirium Initiative Trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arendts, Glenn; Love, Jennefer; Nagree, Yusuf; Bruce, David; Hare, Malcolm; Dey, Ian

    2017-08-01

    To determine whether a bundled risk screening and warning or action card system improves formal delirium diagnosis and person-centered outcomes in hospitalized older adults. Prospective trial with sequential introduction of screening and interventional processes. Two tertiary referral hospitals in Australia. Individuals aged 65 and older presenting to the emergency department (ED) and not requiring immediate resuscitation (N = 3,905). Formal ED delirium screening algorithm and use of a risk warning card with a recommended series of actions for the prevention and management of delirium during the subsequent admission MEASUREMENTS: Delirium diagnosis at hospital discharge, proportion discharged to new assisted living arrangements, in-hospital complications (use of sedation, falls, aspiration pneumonia, death), hospital length of stay. Participants with a positive risk screen were significantly more likely (relative risk = 6.0, 95% confidence interval = 4.9-7.3) to develop delirium, and the proportion of at-risk participants with a positive screen was constant across three study phases. Delirium detection rate in participants undergoing the final intervention (Phase 3) was 12.1% (a 2% absolute and 17% relative increase from the baseline rate) but this was not statistically significant (P = .29), and a similar relative increase was seen over time in participants not receiving the intervention CONCLUSION: A risk screening and warning or action card intervention in the ED did not significantly improve rates of delirium detection or other important outcomes. © 2017, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2017, The American Geriatrics Society.

  8. Risk of radiation-induced cancer at low doses and low dose rates for radiation protection purposes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-01-01

    The aim of this report is to provide an updated, comprehensive review of the data available for assessing the risk of radiation-induced cancer for radiation protection purposes. Particular emphasis is placed on assessing risks at low doses and low dose rates. The review brings together the results of epidemiological investigations and fundamental studies on the molecular and cellular mechanisms involved in radiation damage. Additionally, this information is supplemented by studies with experimental animals which provide further guidance on the form of the dose-response relationship for cancer induction, as well as on the effect of dose rate on the tumour yield. The emphasis of the report is on cancer induction resulting from exposure to radiations with a low linear energy transfer (LET). The work was performed under contract for the Institut de Protection et de Surete Nucleaire, Fontenay-aux-Roses, Paris, France, whose agreement to publish is gratefully ackowledged. It extends the advice on radiation risks given in Documents of the NRPB, 4 No. 4 (1993). (Author)

  9. Kaposi Sarcoma Risk in HIV-Infected Children and Adolescents on Combination Antiretroviral Therapy From Sub-Saharan Africa, Europe, and Asia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rohner, Eliane; Schmidlin, Kurt; Zwahlen, Marcel

    2016-01-01

    . RESULTS:  We included 24 991 children from eastern Africa, southern Africa, Europe and Asia; 26 developed KS after starting cART. Incidence rates per 100 000 person-years (PYs) were 86 in eastern Africa (95% confidence interval [CI], 55-133), 11 in southern Africa (95% CI, 4-35), and 81 (95% CI, 26......HR, 3.4; 95% CI, 1.2-10.1) and advanced HIV/AIDS stage (CDC stage C vs A/B; aHR, 2.4; 95% CI, .8-7.3) at cART initiation. CONCLUSIONS:  HIV-infected children from SSA but not those from other regions, have a high risk of developing KS after cART initiation. Early cART initiation in these children might......BACKGROUND:  The burden of Kaposi sarcoma (KS) in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected children and adolescents on combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) has not been compared globally. METHODS:  We analyzed cohort data from the International Epidemiologic Databases to Evaluate AIDS...

  10. Alarming of exchange rate crisis: A risk management approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Da Zhao

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Recently, with increasing volatility of foreign exchange rate, risk management becomes more and more important not only for multinational companies and individuals but also for central governments. This paper attempts to build an econometrics model so as to forecast and manage risks in foreign exchange market, especially during the eve of turbulent periods. By following McNeil and Frey’s (2000 two stage approach called conditional EVT to estimate dynamic VaR commonly used in stock and insurance markets, we extend it by applying a more general asymmetric ARMA-GARCH model to analyze daily foreign exchange dollar-denominated trading data from four countries of different development levels across Asia and Europe for a period of more than 10 years from January 03, 2005 to May 29, 2015, which is certainly representative of global markets. Conventionally, different kinds of backtesting methods are implemented ultimately to evaluate how well the model behaves. Inspiringly, test results show that by taking several specific characteristics (including fat-tails, asymmetry and long-range dependence of the foreign exchange market return data into consideration, the violation ratio of out-of-sample data can be forecasted very well for both fixed and flexible foreign exchange regimes. Moreover, all of the violations are evenly distributed along the whole period which indicates another favorable property of our model. Meanwhile, we find evidence of asymmetry volatility in all of the studied foreign exchange markets even though the magnitudes of the most of them are weak

  11. Development of a spatial decision support system for flood risk management in Brazil that combines volunteered geographic information with wireless sensor networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horita, Flávio E. A.; Albuquerque, João Porto de; Degrossi, Lívia C.; Mendiondo, Eduardo M.; Ueyama, Jó

    2015-07-01

    Effective flood risk management requires updated information to ensure that the correct decisions can be made. This can be provided by Wireless Sensor Networks (WSN) which are a low-cost means of collecting updated information about rivers. Another valuable resource is Volunteered Geographic Information (VGI) which is a comparatively new means of improving the coverage of monitored areas because it is able to supply supplementary information to the WSN and thus support decision-making in flood risk management. However, there still remains the problem of how to combine WSN data with VGI. In this paper, an attempt is made to investigate AGORA-DS, which is a Spatial Decision Support System (SDSS) that is able to make flood risk management more effective by combining these data sources, i.e. WSN with VGI. This approach is built over a conceptual model that complies with the interoperable standards laid down by the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) - e.g. Sensor Observation Service (SOS) and Web Feature Service (WFS) - and seeks to combine and present unified information in a web-based decision support tool. This work was deployed in a real scenario of flood risk management in the town of São Carlos in Brazil. The evidence obtained from this deployment confirmed that interoperable standards can support the integration of data from distinct data sources. In addition, they also show that VGI is able to provide information about areas of the river basin which lack data since there is no appropriate station in the area. Hence it provides a valuable support for the WSN data. It can thus be concluded that AGORA-DS is able to combine information provided by WSN and VGI, and provide useful information for supporting flood risk management.

  12. The benefits and risks of bacille Calmette-Guérin vaccination among infants at high risk for both tuberculosis and severe combined immunodeficiency: assessment by Markov model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cameron D William

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG vaccine is given to Canadian Aboriginal neonates in selected communities. Severe reactions and deaths associated with BCG have been reported among infants born with immunodeficiency syndromes. The main objective of this study was to estimate threshold values for severe combined immunodeficiency (SCID incidence, above which BCG is associated with greater risk than benefit. Methods A Markov model was developed to simulate the natural histories of tuberculosis (TB and SCID in children from birth to 14 years. The annual risk of tuberculous infection (ARI and SCID incidence were varied in analyses. The model compared a scenario of no vaccination to intervention with BCG. Appropriate variability and uncertainty analyses were conducted. Outcomes included TB incidence and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs. Results In sensitivity analyses, QALYs were lower among vaccinated infants if the ARI was 0.1% and the rate of SCID was higher than 4.2 per 100,000. Assuming an ARI of 1%, this threshold increased to 41 per 100,000. In uncertainty analyses (Monte Carlo simulations which assumed an ARI of 0.1%, QALYs were not significantly increased by BCG unless SCID incidence is 0. With this ARI, QALYs were significantly decreased among vaccinated children if SCID incidence exceeds 23 per 100,000. BCG is associated with a significant increase in QALYs if the ARI is 1%, and SCID incidence is below 5 per 100,000. Conclusion The possibility that Canadian Aboriginal children are at increased risk for SCID has serious implications for continued BCG use in this population. In this context, enhanced TB Control – including early detection and treatment of infection – may be a safer, more effective alternative.

  13. High-Dose-Rate Brachytherapy and External-Beam Radiotherapy for Hormone-Naïve Low- and Intermediate-Risk Prostate Cancer: A 7-Year Experience

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aluwini, Shafak; Rooij, Peter H. van; Kirkels, Wim J.; Jansen, Peter P.; Praag, John O.; Bangma, Chris H.; Kolkman-Deurloo, Inger-Karine K.

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: To report clinical outcomes and early and late complications in 264 hormone-naïve patients with low- and intermediate-risk prostate cancer treated with high-dose-rate brachytherapy (HDR-BT) in combination with external-beam radiotherapy (EBRT). Methods and Materials: Between February 2000 and July 2007, 264 patients underwent HDR-BT in combination with EBRT as a treatment for their low- to intermediate-risk prostate cancer. The HDR-BT was performed using ultrasound-based implantation. The total HDR-BT dose was 18 Gy in 3 fractions within 24 h, with a 6-h minimum interval. The EBRT started 2 weeks after HDR-BT and was delivered in 25 fractions of 1.8 Gy to 45 Gy within 5 weeks. Results: After a mean follow-up of 74.5 months, 4 patients (1.5%) showed prostate-specific antigen progression according to the American Society for Radiation Oncology definition and 8 patients (3%) according to the Phoenix definition. A biopsy-proven local recurrence was registered in 1 patient (0.4%), and clinical progression (bone metastases) was documented in 2 patients (0.7%). Seven-year actuarial freedom from biochemical failure was 97%, and 7-year disease-specific survival and overall survival were 100% and 91%, respectively. Toxicities were comparable to other series. Conclusions: Treatment with interstitial HDR-BT plus EBRT shows a low incidence of late complications and a favorable oncologic outcome after 7 years follow-up.

  14. Premorbid teacher-rated social functioning predicts adult schizophrenia-spectrum disorder: A high-risk prospective investigation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tsuji, Thomas; Kline, Emily; Sorensen, Holger J.

    2013-01-01

    Social functioning deficits are a core component of schizophrenia spectrum disorders, and may emerge years prior to the onset of diagnosable illness. The current study prospectively examines the relation between teacher-rated childhood social dysfunction and later mental illness among participants...... who were at genetic high-risk for schizophrenia and controls (n=244). The teacher-rated social functioning scale significantly predicted psychiatric outcomes (schizophrenia-spectrum vs. other psychiatric disorder vs. no mental illness). Poor premorbid social functioning appears to constitute a marker...

  15. A combination drift chamber/pad chamber for very high readout rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spiegel, L.; Cataldi, G.; Elia, V.; Mazur, P.; Murphy, C.T.; Smith, R.P.; Yang, W.; Alexopoulos, T.; Durandet, C.; Erwin, A.; Jennings, J.; Antoniazzi, L.; Introzzi, G.; Lanza, A.; Liguori, G.; Torre, P.; Arenton, M.; Conetti, S.; Cox, B.; Dukes, E.; Golovatyuk, V.; Hanlet, P.; McManus, A.; Nelson, K.; Recagni, M.; Segal, J.; Sun, J.; Ballagh, C.; Bingham, H.; Kaeding, T.; Lys, J.; Misawa, S.; Blankman, A.; Borodin, S.; Kononenko, W.; Newcomer, M.; Selove, W.; Trojak, T.; VanBerg, R.; Zhang, S.N.; Block, M.; Corti, G.; LeCompte, T.; Rosen, J.; Yao, T.; Boden, A.; Cline, D.; Ramachandran, S.; Rhoades, J.; Tokar, S.; Budagov, J.; Tsyganov, E.; Cao, Z.L.; He, M.; Wang, C.; Wei, C.; Zhang, N.; Chen, T.Y.; Yao, N.; Clark, K.; Jenkins, M.; Cooper, M.; Creti, P.; Gorini, E.; Grancagnolo, F.; Panareo, M.; Fortney, L.; Kowald, W.; Haire, M.; Judd, D.; Turnbull, L.; Wagoner, D.; Lau, K.; Mo, G.; Trischuk, J.

    1991-11-01

    Six medium-sized (∼1 x 2 m 2 ) drift chambers with pad and stripe readout have been constructed for and are presently operating in Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory experiment E-771. Each chamber module actually represents a pair of identical planes: two sets of anode wires, two sets of stripes, and two sets of pads. The wire planes are read out separately and represent X measurements in the coordinate system of the experiment. The twin stripe and pad planes are internally paired within the chamber modules; stripe signals represent Y measurements and pad signals combination X and Y measurements. Signals which develop on the stripes and pads are mirror (but inverted) images of what is seen on the wires. In addition to being used in the off-line pattern recognition, pad signals are also used as inputs to an on-line high transverse momentum (pt) trigger processor. While the techniques involved in the design and construction of the chambers are not novel, they may be of interest to experiments contemplating very large area, high rate chambers for future spectrometers

  16. A combination drift chamber/pad chamber for very high readout rates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Spiegel, L.; Cataldi, G.; Elia, V.; Mazur, P.; Murphy, C.T.; Smith, R.P.; Yang, W. (Fermi National Accelerator Lab., Batavia, IL (United States)); Alexopoulos, T.; Durandet, C.; Erwin, A.; Jennings, J. (Wisconsin Univ., Madison, WI (United States)); Antoniazzi, L.; Introzzi, G.; Lanza, A.; Liguori, G.; Torre, P. (Pavia Univ. (Italy) Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare, Rome (Italy)); Arenton, M.; Conetti, S.

    1991-11-01

    Six medium-sized ({approx}1 {times} 2 m{sup 2}) drift chambers with pad and stripe readout have been constructed for and are presently operating in Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory experiment E-771. Each chamber module actually represents a pair of identical planes: two sets of anode wires, two sets of stripes, and two sets of pads. The wire planes are read out separately and represent X measurements in the coordinate system of the experiment. The twin stripe and pad planes are internally paired within the chamber modules; stripe signals represent Y measurements and pad signals combination X and Y measurements. Signals which develop on the stripes and pads are mirror (but inverted) images of what is seen on the wires. In addition to being used in the off-line pattern recognition, pad signals are also used as inputs to an on-line high transverse momentum (pt) trigger processor. While the techniques involved in the design and construction of the chambers are not novel, they may be of interest to experiments contemplating very large area, high rate chambers for future spectrometers.

  17. Ratings of Sovereign Risk and the Macroeconomics Fundamentals of the countries: a Study Using Artificial Neural Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Osvaldo Cândido da Silva Filho

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available To minimize the consequences of asymmetric information, the sovereign risk ratings are instruments that constitute a key piece in the determination of credit market conditions, essential to the growth of developing countries like Brazil. In the present work we studied based on macroeconomics foundations, a classification to sovereign risk ratings realized by the ratings agencies finding the classification using Artificial Neural Networks. We observed homogeneity degree between the attributions of agencies and macroeconomics foundations in the countries of sample which four of foundations seem to be more directly connected with these attributions. After, in a comparative static exercise, we use the model to make simulations of scenarios of the credit external conditions for the Brazilian economy, changing the macroeconomics foundations which we noted that agencies expected for more per capita income increasing and decrease of public debt. (Full article in Portuguese only

  18. Identifying women with dense breasts at high risk for interval cancer: a cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerlikowske, Karla; Zhu, Weiwei; Tosteson, Anna N A; Sprague, Brian L; Tice, Jeffrey A; Lehman, Constance D; Miglioretti, Diana L

    2015-05-19

    Twenty-one states have laws requiring that women be notified if they have dense breasts and that they be advised to discuss supplemental imaging with their provider. To better direct discussions of supplemental imaging by determining which combinations of breast cancer risk and Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System (BI-RADS) breast density categories are associated with high interval cancer rates. Prospective cohort. Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (BCSC) breast imaging facilities. 365,426 women aged 40 to 74 years who had 831,455 digital screening mammography examinations. BI-RADS breast density, BCSC 5-year breast cancer risk, and interval cancer rate (invasive cancer ≤12 months after a normal mammography result) per 1000 mammography examinations. High interval cancer rate was defined as more than 1 case per 1000 examinations. High interval cancer rates were observed for women with 5-year risk of 1.67% or greater and extremely dense breasts or 5-year risk of 2.50% or greater and heterogeneously dense breasts (24% of all women with dense breasts). The interval rate of advanced-stage disease was highest (>0.4 case per 1000 examinations) among women with 5-year risk of 2.50% or greater and heterogeneously or extremely dense breasts (21% of all women with dense breasts). Five-year risk was low to average (0% to 1.66%) for 51.0% of women with heterogeneously dense breasts and 52.5% with extremely dense breasts, with interval cancer rates of 0.58 to 0.63 and 0.72 to 0.89 case per 1000 examinations, respectively. The benefit of supplemental imaging was not assessed. Breast density should not be the sole criterion for deciding whether supplemental imaging is justified because not all women with dense breasts have high interval cancer rates. BCSC 5-year risk combined with BI-RADS breast density can identify women at high risk for interval cancer to inform patient-provider discussions about alternative screening strategies. National Cancer Institute.

  19. Combined prediction model for supply risk in nuclear power equipment manufacturing industry based on support vector machine and decision tree

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shi Chunsheng; Meng Dapeng

    2011-01-01

    The prediction index for supply risk is developed based on the factor identifying of nuclear equipment manufacturing industry. The supply risk prediction model is established with the method of support vector machine and decision tree, based on the investigation on 3 important nuclear power equipment manufacturing enterprises and 60 suppliers. Final case study demonstrates that the combination model is better than the single prediction model, and demonstrates the feasibility and reliability of this model, which provides a method to evaluate the suppliers and measure the supply risk. (authors)

  20. An exploration of spatial risk assessment for soil protection: estimating risk and establishing priority areas for soil protection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kibblewhite, M G; Bellamy, P H; Brewer, T R; Graves, A R; Dawson, C A; Rickson, R J; Truckell, I; Stuart, J

    2014-03-01

    Methods for the spatial estimation of risk of harm to soil by erosion by water and wind and by soil organic matter decline are explored. Rates of harm are estimated for combinations of soil type and land cover (as a proxy for hazard frequency) and used to estimate risk of soil erosion and loss of soil organic carbon (SOC) for 1 km(2)pixels. Scenarios are proposed for defining the acceptability of risk of harm to soil: the most precautionary one corresponds to no net harm after natural regeneration of soil (i.e. a 1 in 20 chance of exceeding an erosion rate of soils and a carbon stock decline of 0 tha(-1)y(-1) for organic soils). Areas at higher and lower than possible acceptable risk are mapped. The veracity of boundaries is compromised if areas of unacceptable risk are mapped to administrative boundaries. Errors in monitoring change in risk of harm to soil and inadequate information on risk reduction measures' efficacy, at landscape scales, make it impossible to use or monitor quantitative targets for risk reduction adequately. The consequences for priority area definition of expressing varying acceptable risk of harm to soil as a varying probability of exceeding a fixed level of harm, or, a varying level of harm being exceeded with a fixed probability, are discussed. Soil data and predictive models for rates of harm to soil would need considerable development and validation to implement a priority area approach robustly. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Multi-Drug Resistance Transporters and a Mechanism-Based Strategy for Assessing Risks of Pesticide Combinations to Honey Bees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guseman, Alex J; Miller, Kaliah; Kunkle, Grace; Dively, Galen P; Pettis, Jeffrey S; Evans, Jay D; vanEngelsdorp, Dennis; Hawthorne, David J

    2016-01-01

    Annual losses of honey bee colonies remain high and pesticide exposure is one possible cause. Dangerous combinations of pesticides, plant-produced compounds and antibiotics added to hives may cause or contribute to losses, but it is very difficult to test the many combinations of those compounds that bees encounter. We propose a mechanism-based strategy for simplifying the assessment of combinations of compounds, focusing here on compounds that interact with xenobiotic handling ABC transporters. We evaluate the use of ivermectin as a model substrate for these transporters. Compounds that increase sensitivity of bees to ivermectin may be inhibiting key transporters. We show that several compounds commonly encountered by honey bees (fumagillin, Pristine, quercetin) significantly increased honey bee mortality due to ivermectin and significantly reduced the LC50 of ivermectin suggesting that they may interfere with transporter function. These inhibitors also significantly increased honey bees sensitivity to the neonicotinoid insecticide acetamiprid. This mechanism-based strategy may dramatically reduce the number of tests needed to assess the possibility of adverse combinations among pesticides. We also demonstrate an in vivo transporter assay that provides physical evidence of transporter inhibition by tracking the dynamics of a fluorescent substrate of these transporters (Rhodamine B) in bee tissues. Significantly more Rhodamine B remains in the head and hemolymph of bees pretreated with higher concentrations of the transporter inhibitor verapamil. Mechanism-based strategies for simplifying the assessment of adverse chemical interactions such as described here could improve our ability to identify those combinations that pose significantly greater risk to bees and perhaps improve the risk assessment protocols for honey bees and similar sensitive species.

  2. Autoimmune diseases and severe infections as risk factors for schizophrenia: a 30-year population-based register study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benros, Michael E; Nielsen, Philip R; Nordentoft, Merete; Eaton, William W; Dalton, Susanne O; Mortensen, Preben B

    2011-12-01

    Autoimmune diseases have been associated with an increased risk of schizophrenia. It has been suggested that brain-reactive autoantibodies are part of the mechanisms behind this association. Furthermore, an increased permeability of the blood-brain barrier has been observed during periods of infection and inflammation. The authors therefore investigated whether autoimmune diseases combined with exposures to severe infections may increase the risk of schizophrenia Nationwide population-based registers in Denmark were linked, and the data were analyzed in a cohort study using survival analysis. All analyses were adjusted for calendar year, age, and sex. Incidence rate ratios and accompanying 95% confidence intervals (CIs) as measures of relative risk were used. A prior autoimmune disease increased the risk of schizophrenia by 29% (incidence rate ratio=1.29; 95% CI=1.18-1.41). Any history of hospitalization with infection increased the risk of schizophrenia by 60% (incidence rate ratio=1.60; 95% CI=1.56-1.64). When the two risk factors were combined, the risk of schizophrenia was increased even further (incidence rate ratio=2.25; 95% CI=2.04-2.46). The risk of schizophrenia was increased in a dose-response relationship, where three or more infections and an autoimmune disease were associated with an incidence rate ratio of 3.40 (95% CI=2.91-3.94). The results remained significant after adjusting for substance use disorders and family history of psychiatric disorders. Hospital contact with infection occurred in nearly 24% of individuals prior to a schizophrenia diagnosis. Autoimmune disease and the number of infections requiring hospitalization are risk factors for schizophrenia. The increased risk is compatible with an immunological hypothesis in subgroups of schizophrenia patients.

  3. DUST-CORRECTED STAR FORMATION RATES OF GALAXIES. I. COMBINATIONS OF Hα AND INFRARED TRACERS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kennicutt, Robert C.; Hao, C.-N.; Johnson, Benjamin D.; Calzetti, Daniela; Moustakas, John; Dale, Daniel A.; Bendo, George; Engelbracht, Charles W.; Lee, Janice C.

    2009-01-01

    We combine Hα emission-line and infrared (IR) continuum measurements of two samples of nearby galaxies to derive dust attenuation-corrected star formation rates (SFRs). We use a simple energy balance based method that has been applied previously to H II regions in the Spitzer Infrared Nearby Galaxies Survey, and extend the methodology to integrated measurements of galaxies. We find that our composite Hα + IR based SFRs are in excellent agreement with attenuation-corrected SFRs derived from integrated spectrophotometry, over the full range of SFRs (0.01-80 M sun yr -1 ) and attenuations (0-2.5 mag) studied. We find that the combination of Hα and total IR luminosities provides the most robust SFR measurements, but combinations of Hα measurements with monochromatic luminosities at 24 μm and 8 μm perform nearly as well. The calibrations differ significantly from those obtained for H II regions, with the difference attributable to a more evolved population of stars heating the dust. Our results are consistent with a significant component of diffuse dust (the 'IR cirrus' component) that is heated by a non-star-forming population. The same methodology can be applied to [O II]λ3727 emission-line measurements, and the radio continuum fluxes of galaxies can be applied in place of IR fluxes when the latter are not available. We assess the precision and systematic reliability of all of these composite methods.

  4. Construction scheduled delay risk assessment by using combined AHP-RII methodology for an international NPP project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hossen, Mufazal Muhammed; Kang, Sun Koo; Kim, Jong Hyun [KEPCO International Nuclear Graduate School (KINGS), Ulsan (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-04-15

    In this study, Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) construction schedule delay risk assessment methodology is developed and the construction delay risk is assessed for turnkey international NPP projects. Three levels of delay factors were selected through literature review and discussions with nuclear industry experts. A questionnaire survey was conducted on the basis of an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and Relative Importance Index (RII) methods and the schedule delay risk is assessed qualitatively and quantitatively by severity and frequency of occurrence of delay factors. This study assigns four main delay factors to the first level: main contractor, utility, regulatory authority, and financial and country factor. The second and the third levels are designed with 12 sub-factors and 32 sub-sub-factors, respectively. This study finds the top five most important sub-sub-factors, which are as follows: policy changes, political instability and public intervention; uncompromising regulatory criteria and licensing documents conflicting with existing regulations; robust design document review procedures; redesign due to errors in design and design changes; and worldwide shortage of qualified and experienced nuclear specific equipment manufacturers. The proposed combined AHP-RII methodology is capable of assessing delay risk effectively and efficiently. Decision makers can apply risk informed decision making to avoid unexpected construction delays of NPPs.

  5. Construction scheduled delay risk assessment by using combined AHP-RII methodology for an international NPP project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hossen, Mufazal Muhammed; Kang, Sun Koo; Kim, Jong Hyun

    2015-01-01

    In this study, Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) construction schedule delay risk assessment methodology is developed and the construction delay risk is assessed for turnkey international NPP projects. Three levels of delay factors were selected through literature review and discussions with nuclear industry experts. A questionnaire survey was conducted on the basis of an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and Relative Importance Index (RII) methods and the schedule delay risk is assessed qualitatively and quantitatively by severity and frequency of occurrence of delay factors. This study assigns four main delay factors to the first level: main contractor, utility, regulatory authority, and financial and country factor. The second and the third levels are designed with 12 sub-factors and 32 sub-sub-factors, respectively. This study finds the top five most important sub-sub-factors, which are as follows: policy changes, political instability and public intervention; uncompromising regulatory criteria and licensing documents conflicting with existing regulations; robust design document review procedures; redesign due to errors in design and design changes; and worldwide shortage of qualified and experienced nuclear specific equipment manufacturers. The proposed combined AHP-RII methodology is capable of assessing delay risk effectively and efficiently. Decision makers can apply risk informed decision making to avoid unexpected construction delays of NPPs

  6. Mercury risk assessment combining internal and external exposure methods for a population living near a municipal solid waste incinerator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Chunyan; Xie, Han; Ye, Xuejie; Zhang, Haoran; Liu, Maodian; Tong, Yindong; Ou, Langbo; Yuan, Wen; Zhang, Wei; Wang, Xuejun

    2016-12-01

    Risk assessments for human health have been conducted for municipal solid waste incinerators (MSWIs) in many western countries, whereas only a few risk assessments have been performed for MSWIs in developing countries such as China where the use of waste incineration is increasing rapidly. To assess the mercury exposure risks of a population living near the largest MSWI in South China, we combined internal exposure and external exposure assessment with an individual-specific questionnaire. The mercury concentrations in air, soil, and locally collected food around the MSWI were assessed. The total mercury (T-Hg) and methylmercury (MeHg) of 447 blood samples from a control group, residential exposure group, and MSWI workers were measured. The internal and external exposures of the subject population were analyzed. Significant difference in MeHg concentrations was observed between the control group and the exposed group, between the control group and the MSWI workers, and between the exposed group and the MSWI workers (median levels: 0.70 μg/L, 0.81 μg/L, and 1.02 μg/L for the control group, exposed group, and MSWI workers, respectively). The MeHg/T-Hg ratio was 0.51 ± 0.19, 0.59 ± 0.17 and 0.58 ± 0.25, respectively. Multiple linear regression analysis indicated that MeHg concentrations were positively correlated with the gaseous mercury in the air. Combining internal and external exposure assessment showed that the direct contribution of MSWI emissions was minor compared with the dietary contribution. The external and internal exposures were well matched with each other. This study also suggested that an integrated method combining internal and external exposure assessment with an individual-specific questionnaire is feasible to assess the risks for a population living near a MSWI. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Assessing microbial degradation of o-xylene at field-scale from the reduction in mass flow rate combined with compound-specific isotope analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peter, A.; Steinbach, A.; Liedl, R.; Ptak, T.; Michaelis, W.; Teutsch, G.

    2004-07-01

    In recent years, natural attenuation (NA) has evolved into a possible remediation alternative, especially in the case of BTEX spills. In order to be approved by the regulators, biodegradation needs to be demonstrated which requires efficient site investigation and monitoring tools. Three methods—the Integral Groundwater Investigation method, the compound-specific isotope analysis (CSIA) and a newly developed combination of both—were used in this work to quantify at field scale the biodegradation of o-xylene at a former gasworks site which is heavily contaminated with BTEX and PAHs. First, the Integral Groundwater Investigation method [Schwarz, R., Ptak, T., Holder, T., Teutsch, G., 1998. Groundwater risk assessment at contaminated sites: a new investigation approach. In: Herbert, M. and Kovar, K. (Editors), GQ'98 Groundwater Quality: Remediation and Protection. IAHS Publication 250, pp. 68-71; COH 4 (2000) 170] was applied, which allows the determination of mass flow rates of o-xylene by integral pumping tests. Concentration time series obtained during pumping at two wells were used to calculate inversely contaminant mass flow rates at the two control planes that are defined by the diameter of the maximum isochrone. A reactive transport model was used within a Monte Carlo approach to identify biodegradation as the dominant process for reduction in the contaminant mass flow rate between the two consecutive control planes. Secondly, compound-specific carbon isotope analyses of o-xylene were performed on the basis of point-scale samples from the same two wells. The Rayleigh equation was used to quantify the degree of biodegradation that occurred between the wells. Thirdly, a combination of the Integral Groundwater Investigation method and the compound-specific isotope analysis was developed and applied. It comprises isotope measurements during the integral pumping tests and the evaluation of δ13C time series by an inversion algorithm to obtain spatially

  8. Metoprolol succinate extended release/hydrochlorothiazide combination tablets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James W Hainer

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available James W Hainer, Jennifer SuggAstraZeneca LP, Wilmington, DE, USAAbstract: Lowering elevated blood pressure (BP with drug therapy reduces the risk for catastrophic fatal and nonfatal cardiovascular events such as stroke and myocardial infarction. Given the heterogeneity of hypertension as a disease, the marked variability in an individual patient’s BP response, and low response rates with monotherapy, expert groups such as the Joint National Committee (JNC emphasize the value of combination antihypertensive regimens, noting that combinations, usually of different classes, have additive antihypertensive effects. Metoprolol succinate extended-release tablet is a beta-1 (cardio-selective adrenoceptor-blocking agent formulated to provide controlled and predictable release of metoprolol. Hydrochlorothiazide (HCT is a well-established diuretic and antihypertensive agent, which promotes natruresis by acting on the distal renal tubule. The pharmacokinetics, efficacy, and safety/tolerability of the antihypertensive combination tablet, metoprolol extended release hydrochlorothiazide, essentially reflect the well-described independent characteristics of each of the component agents. Not only is the combination product more effective than monotherapy with the individual components but the combination product allows a low-dose multidrug regimen as an alternative to high-dose monotherapy, thereby, minimizing the likelihood of dose-related side-effects.Keywords: antihypertensive, blood pressure, cardiovascular disease, combination product

  9. Combining Radiation Epidemiology With Molecular Biology-Changing From Health Risk Estimates to Therapeutic Intervention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abend, Michael; Port, Matthias

    2016-08-01

    The authors herein summarize six presentations dedicated to the key session "molecular radiation epidemiology" of the ConRad meeting 2015. These presentations were chosen in order to highlight the promise when combining conventional radiation epidemiology with molecular biology. Conventional radiation epidemiology uses dose estimates for risk predictions on health. However, combined with molecular biology, dose-dependent bioindicators of effect hold the promise to improve clinical diagnostics and to provide target molecules for potential therapeutic intervention. One out of the six presentations exemplified the use of radiation-induced molecular changes as biomarkers of exposure by measuring stabile chromosomal translocations. The remaining five presentations focused on molecular changes used as bioindicators of the effect. These bioindicators of the effect could be used for diagnostic purposes on colon cancers (genomic instability), thyroid cancer (CLIP2), or head and neck squamous cell cancers. Therapeutic implications of gene expression changes were examined in Chernobyl thyroid cancer victims and Mayak workers.

  10. Liquigroud technique: a new concept for enhancing dissolution rate of glibenclamide by combination of liquisolid and co-grinding technologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azharshekoufeh, Leila; Shokri, Javad; Barzegar-Jalali, Mohammad; Javadzadeh, Yousef

    2017-01-01

    Introduction: The potential of combining liquisolid and co-grinding technologies (liquiground technique) was investigated to improve the dissolution rate of a water-insoluble agent (glibenclamide) with formulation-dependent bioavailability. Methods: To this end, different formulations of liquisolid tablets with a wide variety of non-volatile solvents contained varied ratios of drug: solvent and dissimilar carriers were prepared, and then their release profiles were evaluated. Furthermore, the effect of size reduction by ball milling on the dissolution behavior of glibenclamide from liquisolid tablets was investigated. Any interaction between the drug and the excipient or crystallinity changes during formulation procedure was also examined using X-ray diffraction (XRD) and differential scanning calorimetry (DSC). Results: The present study revealed that classic liquisolid technique did not significantly affect the drug dissolution profile as compared to the conventional tablets. Size reduction obtained by co-grinding of liquid medication was more effective than the implementation of liquisolid technique in enhancing the dissolution rate of glibenclamide. The XRD and DSC data displayed no formation of complex or any crystallinity changes in both formulations. Conclusion: An enhanced dissolution rate of glibenclamide is achievable through the combination of liquisolid and co-grinding technologies.

  11. Randomized Phase II Study of Azacitidine Alone or in Combination With Lenalidomide or With Vorinostat in Higher-Risk Myelodysplastic Syndromes and Chronic Myelomonocytic Leukemia: North American Intergroup Study SWOG S1117.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sekeres, Mikkael A; Othus, Megan; List, Alan F; Odenike, Olatoyosi; Stone, Richard M; Gore, Steven D; Litzow, Mark R; Buckstein, Rena; Fang, Min; Roulston, Diane; Bloomfield, Clara D; Moseley, Anna; Nazha, Aziz; Zhang, Yanming; Velasco, Mario R; Gaur, Rakesh; Atallah, Ehab; Attar, Eyal C; Cook, Elina K; Cull, Alyssa H; Rauh, Michael J; Appelbaum, Frederick R; Erba, Harry P

    2017-08-20

    Purpose Azacitidine is standard, first-line therapy in higher-risk myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS). Whether azacitidine-based combinations with lenalidomide or vorinostat produce superior overall response rates (ORRs) to azacitidine is not known. Patients and Methods North American Intergroup Study S1117 is a phase II/III trial that randomly assigned patients with higher-risk MDS and chronic myelomonocytic leukemia (CMML) 1:1:1 to azacitidine (75 mg/m 2 /day on days 1 to 7 of a 28-day cycle); azacitidine plus lenalidomide (10 mg/day on days 1 to 21); or azacitidine plus vorinostat (300 mg twice daily on days 3 to 9). The primary phase II end point was improved ORR. Results Of 277 patients from 90 centers, 92 received azacitidine, 93 received azacitidine plus lenalidomide, and 92 received azacitidine plus vorinostat. Median age was 70 years (range, 28 to 93 years), 85 patients (31%) were female, and 53 patients (19%) had CMML. Serious adverse events were similar across arms, although combination-arm patients were more likely to undergo nonprotocol-defined dose modifications ( P vorinostat ( P = .16 v azacitidine). For patients with CMML, ORR was higher for azacitidine plus lenalidomide versus azacitidine (68% v 28%, P = .02) but similar for all arms across cytogenetic subgroups, as was remission duration and overall survival. ORR was higher with mutations in DNMT3A and lower for SRSF2, whereas ORR duration improved with fewer mutations. Lenalidomide dose reduction was associated with worse overall survival (hazard ratio, 1.30; P = .05). Conclusion Patients with higher-risk MDS treated with azacitidine-based combinations had similar ORR to azacitidine monotherapy, although patients with CMML benefitted from azacitidine plus lenalidomide. The efficacy of combination regimens may have been affected by dose modifications.

  12. Assessing the combined risks of PAHs and metals in urban soils by urbanization indicators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Chi; Ouyang, Zhiyun; Wang, Meie; Chen, Weiping; Li, Xiaoma; Crittenden, John C

    2013-07-01

    We quantitatively describe the impacts of urbanization on the accumulation of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and heavy metals (HMs) in urban soils as well as their health risks to residents. Residential building age, population density, road density, and distance from urban center were used as urbanization level indicators. Significant correlations were found between those urbanization indicators and the amounts of PAHs, Cu, Cd, Pb, Zn and As in residential soils. The exposure time of soils to urban air was the primary factor affecting soil pollution, followed by local road density and population density. Factor analysis suggested that 59.0% of the elevated pollutant concentrations were caused by citywide uniform deposition, and 15.3% were resulted from short-range deposition and/or non-combustion processes. The combined health risks posed by soil PAHs and HMs were aggravated with time and can be expressed as functions of residence age, road density, and other urbanization indicators. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Aliskiren and valsartan combination therapy for the management of hypertension

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamin J Epstein

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Benjamin J EpsteinDepartments of Pharmacotherapy and Translational Research and Medicine, Colleges of Pharmacy and Medicine, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, USA and East Coast Institute for Research, Jacksonville, Florida, USAAbstract: Combination therapy is necessary for most patients with hypertension, and agents that inhibit the renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system (RAAS are mainstays in hypertension management, especially for patients at high cardiovascular and renal risk. Single blockade of the RAAS with an angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE inhibitor or angiotensin receptor blocker (ARB confers some cardiorenal protection; however, these agents do not extinguish the RAAS as evidenced by a reactive increase in plasma renin activity (PRA, a cardiovascular risk marker, and incomplete cardiorenal protection. Dual blockade with an ACE inhibitor and an ARB offers no additional benefit in patients with hypertension and normal renal and left ventricular function. Indeed, PRA increases synergistically with dual blockade. Aliskiren, the first direct renin inhibitor (DRI to become available has provided an opportunity to study the merit of DRI/ARB combination treatment. By blocking the first and rate-limiting step in the RAAS, aliskiren reduces PRA by at least 70% and buffers the compensatory increase in PRA observed with ACE inhibitors and ARBs. The combination of a DRI and an ARB or an ACE inhibitor is an effective approach for lowering blood pressure; available data indicate that such combinations favorably affect proteinuria, left ventricular mass index, and brain natriuretic peptide in patients with albuminuria, left ventricular hypertrophy, and heart failure, respectively. Ongoing outcome studies will clarify the role of aliskiren and aliskiren-based combination RAAS blockade in patients with hypertension and those at high cardiorenal risk.Keywords: aliskiren, valsartan, single-pill combination, hypertension, renin

  14. Refined estimates of local recurrence risks by DCIS score adjusting for clinicopathological features: a combined analysis of ECOG-ACRIN E5194 and Ontario DCIS cohort studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rakovitch, E; Gray, R; Baehner, F L; Sutradhar, R; Crager, M; Gu, S; Nofech-Mozes, S; Badve, S S; Hanna, W; Hughes, L L; Wood, W C; Davidson, N E; Paszat, L; Shak, S; Sparano, J A; Solin, L J

    2018-06-01

    Better tools are needed to estimate local recurrence (LR) risk after breast-conserving surgery (BCS) for DCIS. The DCIS score (DS) was validated as a predictor of LR in E5194 and Ontario DCIS cohort (ODC) after BCS. We combined data from E5194 and ODC adjusting for clinicopathological factors to provide refined estimates of the 10-year risk of LR after treatment by BCS alone. Data from E5194 and ODC were combined. Patients with positive margins or multifocality were excluded. Identical Cox regression models were fit for each study. Patient-specific meta-analysis was used to calculate precision-weighted estimates of 10-year LR risk by DS, age, tumor size and year of diagnosis. The combined cohort includes 773 patients. The DS and age at diagnosis, tumor size and year of diagnosis provided independent prognostic information on the 10-year LR risk (p ≤ 0.009). Hazard ratios from E5194 and ODC cohorts were similar for the DS (2.48, 1.95 per 50 units), tumor size ≤ 1 versus  > 1-2.5 cm (1.45, 1.47), age ≥ 50 versus  15%) 10-year LR risk after BCS alone compared to utilization of DS alone or clinicopathological factors alone. The combined analysis provides refined estimates of 10-year LR risk after BCS for DCIS. Adding information on tumor size and age at diagnosis to the DS adjusting for year of diagnosis provides improved LR risk estimates to guide treatment decision making.

  15. Risk of severe hematologic toxicities in cancer patients treated with PARP inhibitors: results of monotherapy and combination therapy trials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alecu I

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Iulian Alecu, Tsveta Milenkova, Simon R Turner Research and Development, AstraZeneca UK Limited, Cambridge, UKThe tolerability profile of PARP inhibitors often includes hematologic toxicities, and the characterization of these adverse events is important to allow effective management by clinicians. Zhou et al1 recently carried out a meta-analysis of the incidence and relative risks of severe neutropenia, thrombocytopenia, and anemia events in 12 randomized controlled trials of PARP inhibitors, either as monotherapy or in combination with chemotherapy or radiotherapy. The authors concluded that olaparib resulted in a higher incidence of severe (common terminology criteria for adverse events [CTCAE] grade $3 neutropenia when compared with niraparib and veliparib; however, these conclusions are based on inappropriate and incomplete comparisons of hematologic toxicity with olaparib or veliparib in combination with myelotoxic chemotherapy versus niraparib monotherapy. While both monotherapy and combination therapy olaparib studies are discussed in the paper, the neutropenia analysis is based on olaparib data solely from studies in combination with paclitaxel or paclitaxel plus carboplatin. In order to inform the practicing clinician of the relative risk of hematologic toxicity associated with different PARP inhibitors, direct comparison needs to be conducted based on monotherapy, where applicable, as per the approved drug indication, otherwise the reader is given misleading information.View the original paper by Zhou et al.

  16. Parity Specific Birth Rates for West Germany: An Attempt to Combine Survey Data and Vital Statistics

    OpenAIRE

    Kreyenfeld, Michaela

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, we combine vital statistics and survey data to obtain parity specific birth rates for West Germany. Since vital statistics do not provide birth parity information, one is confined to using estimates. The robustness of these estimates is an issue, which is unfortunately only rarely addressed when fertility indicators for (West) Germany are reported. In order to check how reliable our results are, we estimate confidence intervals and compare them to results from survey data and e...

  17. Risk Factors for Brachial Plexus Birth Injury

    Science.gov (United States)

    Louden, Emily; Marcotte, Michael; Mehlman, Charles; Lippert, William; Huang, Bin; Paulson, Andrea

    2018-01-01

    Over the course of decades, the incidence of brachial plexus birth injury (BPBI) has increased despite advances in healthcare which would seem to assist in decreasing the rate. The aim of this study is to identify previously unknown risk factors for BPBI and the risk factors with potential to guide preventative measures. A case control study of 52 mothers who had delivered a child with a BPBI injury and 132 mothers who had delivered without BPBI injury was conducted. Univariate, multivariable and logistic regressions identified risk factors and their combinations. The odds of BPBI were 2.5 times higher when oxytocin was used and 3.7 times higher when tachysystole occurred. The odds of BPBI injury are increased when tachysystole and oxytocin occur during the mother’s labor. Logistic regression identified a higher risk for BPBI when more than three of the following variables (>30 lbs gained during the pregnancy, stage 2 labor >61.5 min, mother’s age >26.4 years, tachysystole, or fetal malpresentation) were present in any combination. PMID:29596309

  18. Risk Factors for Brachial Plexus Birth Injury

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emily Louden

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Over the course of decades, the incidence of brachial plexus birth injury (BPBI has increased despite advances in healthcare which would seem to assist in decreasing the rate. The aim of this study is to identify previously unknown risk factors for BPBI and the risk factors with potential to guide preventative measures. A case control study of 52 mothers who had delivered a child with a BPBI injury and 132 mothers who had delivered without BPBI injury was conducted. Univariate, multivariable and logistic regressions identified risk factors and their combinations. The odds of BPBI were 2.5 times higher when oxytocin was used and 3.7 times higher when tachysystole occurred. The odds of BPBI injury are increased when tachysystole and oxytocin occur during the mother’s labor. Logistic regression identified a higher risk for BPBI when more than three of the following variables (>30 lbs gained during the pregnancy, stage 2 labor >61.5 min, mother’s age >26.4 years, tachysystole, or fetal malpresentation were present in any combination.

  19. Risk-based decision making to manage water quality failures caused by combined sewer overflows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sriwastava, A. K.; Torres-Matallana, J. A.; Tait, S.; Schellart, A.

    2017-12-01

    Regulatory authorities set certain environmental permit for water utilities such that the combined sewer overflows (CSO) managed by these companies conform to the regulations. These utility companies face the risk of paying penalty or negative publicity in case they breach the environmental permit. These risks can be addressed by designing appropriate solutions such as investing in additional infrastructure which improve the system capacity and reduce the impact of CSO spills. The performance of these solutions is often estimated using urban drainage models. Hence, any uncertainty in these models can have a significant effect on the decision making process. This study outlines a risk-based decision making approach to address water quality failure caused by CSO spills. A calibrated lumped urban drainage model is used to simulate CSO spill quality in Haute-Sûre catchment in Luxembourg. Uncertainty in rainfall and model parameters is propagated through Monte Carlo simulations to quantify uncertainty in the concentration of ammonia in the CSO spill. A combination of decision alternatives such as the construction of a storage tank at the CSO and the reduction in the flow contribution of catchment surfaces are selected as planning measures to avoid the water quality failure. Failure is defined as exceedance of a concentration-duration based threshold based on Austrian emission standards for ammonia (De Toffol, 2006) with a certain frequency. For each decision alternative, uncertainty quantification results into a probability distribution of the number of annual CSO spill events which exceed the threshold. For each alternative, a buffered failure probability as defined in Rockafellar & Royset (2010), is estimated. Buffered failure probability (pbf) is a conservative estimate of failure probability (pf), however, unlike failure probability, it includes information about the upper tail of the distribution. A pareto-optimal set of solutions is obtained by performing mean

  20. Observer-rated depression in long-term care: frequency and risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCusker, Jane; Cole, Martin G; Voyer, Philippe; Monette, Johanne; Champoux, Nathalie; Ciampi, Antonio; Vu, Minh; Dyachenko, Alina; Belzile, Eric

    2014-01-01

    The objectives of this study were: (1) to describe the prevalence and 6-month incidence of observer-rated depression in residents age 65 and over of long-term care (LTC) facilities; (2) to describe risk factors for depression, at baseline and over time. A multisite, prospective observational study was conducted in residents aged 65 and over of 7 LTC facilities. The Cornell Scale for Depression in Dementia (CSDD) was completed by nurses monthly for 6 months. We measured demographic, medical, and functional factors at baseline and monthly intervals, using data from research assessments, nurse interviews, and chart reviews. 274 residents were recruited and completed baseline depression assessments. The prevalence of depression (CSDD score of 6+) was 19.0%. The incidence of depression among those without prevalent depression was 73.3 per 100 person-years. A delirium diagnosis, pain, and diabetes were independently associated with prevalent depression. CSDD score at baseline and development of severe cognitive impairment at follow-up were independent risk factors for incident depression. A diagnosis of delirium and uncorrected visual impairment at follow-up occurred concurrently with incident depression. The results of this study have implications for the detection and prevention of depression in LTC. Delirium diagnosis, pain and diabetes at baseline were associated with prevalent depression; depression symptoms at baseline and development of severe cognitive impairment at follow-up were risk factors for incident depression. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Traditional risk factors as determinants of heart rate recovery in patients with diabetes mellitus type 2 without known coronary artery disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silaban, Sanny; Afif Siregar, A.; Hasan, H.; Aryfa Andra, C.

    2018-03-01

    The impact of Traditional risk factors on heart rate recovery (HRR) has not been studied in patients Diabetes Mellitus type 2 without known coronary artery disease (CAD). For this reason, we sought to determine the association between HRR as cardiac autonomic dysfunction marker and traditonal risk factors. The study was conducted with a cross-sectional study involving 89 patients with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus without known having coronary artery disease. The data was taken through anamnese and laboratory tests, and subjects who met the criteria were tested for a treadmill exercise to assess heart rate recovery in the first minute. In bivariate analysis Dyslipidemia, Hypertension, smoker, age, duration of DM≥ 5 years, HbA1C ≥7.5, Peak Heart rate, functional capacity and ST depression ischemic have an association with heart rate recovery. In multivariate analysis patients with hyper triglyceride, smoker, overweight, duration of diabetes ≥ five years and HbA1C ≥ 7,5 have lower heart rate recovery significantly. Traditional risk factors are determinant factors for heart rate recovery in patients with Diabetes Mellitus type 2 without known coronary artery disease.

  2. How costly is it to ignore interest rate risk management in your 401(k) plan?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Bilsen, Servaas; Boelaars, I.; Bovenberg, Lans; Mehlkopf, Roel

    This paper explicitly derives and explores optimal interest rate risk management for lifecycle investors in DC pension plans, and compares our results to the portfolio mix chosen in practice by Target-Date Fund (TDF) managers. We show that investments in long-term bonds play an important role in the

  3. [Comparison of curative effect of low flow rate plasma exchange combined with hemofiltration for treatment of liver failure].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Yong-feng; Huang, Ping; Zhang, Ning; Gai, Xiao-dong; Feng, Xiao-ning; Zhong, Yan-dan; Wang, Li-rong; Yang, Yi-jun; Zhao, Wei

    2009-02-01

    To investigate the effect of plasma exchange (PE) combined with hemofiltration (HF) on liver failure. Seventy-seven inpatients with liver failure admitted during January 2006 to August 2007 were randomly assigned to receive PE combined with HF (PE+HF group, 38 cases), or PE alone (PE group, 39 cases). Forty-one inpatients with liver failure who had not received artificial liver support treatment were assigned to serve as control group. The survival rates and biochemical parameters of three groups were compared. There was no significant difference in biochemical parameters before treatment among three groups. Compared with pre-treatment values, albumin (Alb), cholinesterase (ChE) and prothrombin activity (PTA) of both PE group and PE+HF group were significantly increased after treatment, and total bilirubin (TBIL), alanine transaminase (ALT), aspartate transaminase (AST) of both PE group and PE+HF group were significantly decreased after treatment (Prate of PE group, PE+HF group and control group was 48.7% (19/39), 68.4% (26/38), and 29.3% (12/41) respectively. The survival rate of PE+HF group was significantly higher than that of control group (chi(2)=12.11, Prate of recovery of consciousness of patients with hepatic encephalopathy in PE+HF group was higher than that of PE group (42.8% vs. 0, P<0.05). Compared with PE alone, the result was better when it was combined with HF in correction of electrolyte disturbance and acid-base imbalance (19/23 vs. 0/21, P<0.05). Treatment of liver failure by PE combined with HF is safe and effective, and its efficacy is higher than PE alone.

  4. NDT method in determining the rate of corrosion applicable to risk based inspection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mohamed Hairul Hasmoni; Mohamad Pauzi Ismail; Ab Razak Hamzah

    2004-01-01

    Corrosion is a major problem in oil and gas industries, refineries and chemical process plants as the equipment is often exposed to corrosive environments or elevated temperature. Important equipment need to operate safely and reliably to avoid injuries to personnel and the public, and to prevent loss time and cost incurred due to loss of production and shutdown. The paper assess the approach in evaluating the technique of non-destructive testing (NDT) using Ultrasonic Testing (UT) in determining the rate of corrosion and remaining life of equipment applicable to Risk Based Inspection (RBI). Methods in determining the corrosion rate are presented using analytical method. Examples and data from MINT chiller water pipeline are presented to illustrate the application of these methods. (Author)

  5. The effect of macroeconomic factors on credit risk in the banking system of Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Khodaei Valahzaghard

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available These days, there are increasing changes on environmental and economic networks and different risks of various institutions affect the financial structure. Different institutions including financial and credit institutions are facing with the risk of lack of their timely obligations to make sure the repayment of the funds is granted. In this study, the effects of economic factors not affected by intentional behavior of customers are investigated. Statistical study of the banking system includes all public and private banks. Statistical research community from 2005 to 2010 is considered. The cross-sectional data of the study and a combination of regression analysis is used. The regression analysis of combined data, fixed effects model based on the data is a cross-sectional fit. According to results of regression analysis, Pearson and Spearman's Correlation Coefficient, there is no significant relationship between the inflation rate, employment rate, unemployment rate, the dollar, the euro, with import growth of credit risk in the banking system in Iran. Therefore, based on probability theory, it can be stated that the credit risk in the banking system in Iran under the influence of variables is not mentioned. In addition, positive and significant relationship between stock index and credit risk in the banking system in Iran has increased by Weber in this index increases and reducing credit risk is reduced.

  6. Effect of combination tablets containing amlodipine 10 mg and irbesartan 100 mg on blood pressure and cardiovascular risk factors in patients with hypertension

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yagi S

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Shusuke Yagi,1 Akira Takashima,1 Minoru Mitsugi,2 Toshihiro Wada,2 Junko Hotchi,1 Ken-ichi Aihara,3 Tomoya Hara,1 Masayoshi Ishida,1 Daiju Fukuda,4 Takayuki Ise,1 Koji Yamaguchi,1 Takeshi Tobiume,1 Takashi Iwase,1 Hirotsugu Yamada,1 Takeshi Soeki,1 Tetsuzo Wakatsuki,1 Michio Shimabukuro,4 Masashi Akaike,5 Masataka Sata11Department of Cardiovascular Medicine, Graduate School of Health Biosciences, University of Tokushima, Tokushima, 2Department of Internal Medicine, Shikoku Central Hospital, Shikokuchuo, 3Department of Medicine and Bioregulatory Sciences, 4Department of Cardio-Diabetes Medicine, 5Department of Medical Education, Graduate School of Health Biosciences, University of Tokushima, Tokushima, JapanBackground: Hypertension is one of the major risk factors for cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease and mortality. Patients who receive insufficient doses of antihypertensive agents or who are poorly adherent to multidrug treatment regimens often fail to achieve adequate blood pressure (BP control. The aim of this study was to determine the efficacy of an angiotensin II receptor blocker (ARB and calcium channel blocker (CCB combination tablet containing a regular dose of irbesartan (100 mg and a high dose of amlodipine (10 mg with regard to lowering BP and other risk factors for cardiovascular disease.Methods: We retrospectively evaluated data from 68 patients with essential hypertension whose treatment regimen was changed either from combination treatment with an independent ARB and a low-dose or regular-dose CCB or from a combination tablet of ARB and a low-dose or regular-dose CCB to a combination tablet containing amlodipine 10 mg and irbesartan 100 mg, because of incomplete BP control. Previous treatments did not include irbesartan as the ARB.Results: The combination tablet decreased systolic and diastolic BP. In addition, it significantly decreased serum uric acid, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and increased high

  7. The effect on reliability and sensitivity to level of training of combining analytic and holistic rating scales for assessing communication skills in an internal medicine resident OSCE.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniels, Vijay John; Harley, Dwight

    2017-07-01

    Although previous research has compared checklists to rating scales for assessing communication, the purpose of this study was to compare the effect on reliability and sensitivity to level of training of an analytic, a holistic, and a combined analytic-holistic rating scale in assessing communication skills. The University of Alberta Internal Medicine Residency runs OSCEs for postgraduate year (PGY) 1 and 2 residents and another for PGY-4 residents. Communication stations were scored with an analytic scale (empathy, non-verbal skills, verbal skills, and coherence subscales) and a holistic scale. Authors analyzed reliability of individual and combined scales using generalizability theory and evaluated each scale's sensitivity to level of training. For analytic, holistic, and combined scales, 12, 12, and 11 stations respectively yielded a Phi of 0.8 for the PGY-1,2 cohort, and 16, 16, and 14 stations yielded a Phi of 0.8 for the PGY-4 cohort. PGY-4 residents scored higher on the combined scale, the analytic rating scale, and the non-verbal and coherence subscales. A combined analytic-holistic rating scale increased score reliability and was sensitive to level of training. Given increased validity evidence, OSCE developers should consider combining analytic and holistic scales when assessing communication skills. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Randomized trial addressing risk features and time factors of surgery plus radiotherapy in advanced head-and-neck cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ang, K. Kian; Trotti, Andy; Brown, Barry W.; Garden, Adam S.; Foote, Robert L.; Morrison, William H.; Geara, Fady B.; Klotch, Douglas W.; Goepfert, Helmuth; Peters, Lester J.

    2001-01-01

    Purpose: A multi-institutional, prospective, randomized trial was undertaken in patients with advanced head-and-neck squamous cell carcinoma to address (1) the validity of using pathologic risk features, established from a previous study, to determine the need for, and dose of, postoperative radiotherapy (PORT); (2) the impact of accelerating PORT using a concomitant boost schedule; and (3) the importance of the overall combined treatment duration on the treatment outcome. Methods and Materials: Of 288 consecutive patients with advanced disease registered preoperatively, 213 fulfilled the trial criteria and went on to receive therapy predicated on a set of pathologic risk features: no PORT for the low-risk group (n=31); 57.6 Gy during 6.5 weeks for the intermediate-risk group (n=31); and, by random assignment, 63 Gy during 5 weeks (n=76) or 7 weeks (n=75) for the high-risk group. Patients were irradiated with standard techniques appropriate to the site of disease and likely areas of spread. The study end points were locoregional control (LRC), survival, and morbidity. Results: Patients with low or intermediate risks had significantly higher LRC and survival rates than those with high-risk features (p=0.003 and p=0.0001, respectively), despite receiving no PORT or lower dose PORT, respectively. For high-risk patients, a trend toward higher LRC and survival rates was noted when PORT was delivered in 5 rather than 7 weeks. A prolonged interval between surgery and PORT in the 7-week schedule was associated with significantly lower LRC (p=0.03) and survival (p=0.01) rates. Consequently, the cumulative duration of combined therapy had a significant impact on the LRC (p=0.005) and survival (p=0.03) rates. A 2-week reduction in the PORT duration by using the concomitant boost technique did not increase the late treatment toxicity. Conclusions: This Phase III trial established the power of risk assessment using pathologic features in determining the need for, and dose of

  9. Tobacco, alcohol, and other risk behaviors in film: how well do MPAA ratings distinguish content?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tickle, Jennifer J; Beach, Michael L; Dalton, Madeline A

    2009-12-01

    To evaluate the usefulness of Motion Picture Association of America (MPAA) ratings for parental selection of appropriate films for children, the 100 top grossing movies each year from 1996 through 2004 (N = 900) were content analyzed to measure risk behaviors in each film. More restrictive MPAA ratings (R and PG-13) were associated with increased mean seconds of portrayals of tobacco use, alcohol use, and sexual content; increased frequency of violent content; and increased salience of drug use. MPAA ratings, however, did not clearly distinguish films based on tobacco or alcohol use. Fifty percent of R-rated movies contained 124 seconds or more of tobacco use, comparable with 26% of PG-13 and 17% of PG movies. Fifty percent of R-rated movies contained 162 seconds or more of alcohol use, comparable with 49% of PG-13 and 25% of PG movies. Because of the high degree of overlap in alcohol and tobacco content between rating categories, the MPAA rating system, as currently defined, is not adequate for parents who wish to limit their children's exposure to tobacco or alcohol content in movies.

  10. A combination of caffeine and taurine has no effect on short term memory but induces changes in heart rate and mean arterial blood pressure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bichler, A; Swenson, A; Harris, M A

    2006-11-01

    Red Bull energy drink has become extraordinarily popular amongst college students for use as a study aid. We investigated the combined effects of Red Bull's two active ingredients, caffeine and taurine, on short term memory. Studies on the effects of these two neuromodulators on memory have yielded mixed results, and their combined actions have not yet been investigated. In this double-blind study, college student subjects consumed either caffeine and taurine pills or a placebo and then completed a memory assessment. Heart rate and blood pressure were monitored throughout the testing period. The combination of caffeine and taurine had no effect on short term memory, but did cause a significant decline in heart rate and an increase in mean arterial blood pressure. The heart rate decline may have been caused by pressure-induced bradycardia that was triggered by caffeine ingestion and perhaps enhanced by the actions of taurine.

  11. Injury rates and risk factors in competitive professional boxing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zazryn, Tsharni R; McCrory, Paul R; Cameron, Peter A

    2009-01-01

    To determine injury rates and risk factors for injury in a cohort of professional boxers. Retrospective cohort design reporting on data collected for a fight statistics database maintained by the Professional Boxing and Combat Sports Board of Victoria, Australia. Data were extracted for the years January 1997 through June 2005. Victoria, Australia. 545 professional boxers (age, 18 to 43 years) who participated in a total of 907 fights over the study period. Independent variables under investigation included age, gender, weight, bout exposure, and location of the bout (within or outside of the State of Victoria). Physician-reported acute boxing injuries occurring during bouts of any region or nature. 214 injuries were sustained over the 8.5 years, corresponding to an injury rate of 23.6 per 100 professional fights. The majority of these injuries were lacerations to the head and face. An increasing age and an increasing number of fights were both significant predictors of injury. Injury reduction strategies for professional boxing might include restrictions of eligibility to fight based on age and boxing bout exposure. Future research using prospective cohort designs and standardized injury definitions are needed to confirm these results. Greater mechanistic detail and more complete data entry are necessary to ensure that optimal injury prevention strategies can be developed and implemented. Upon confirmation of the results of this study, the Professional Boxing and Combat Sports Board of Victoria may consider different criteria upon which to sanction a fight.

  12. Combined use of autogenic therapy and biofeedback in training effective control of heart rate by humans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cowings, P. S.

    1977-01-01

    Experiments were performed on 24 men and women (aged 20-27 yr) in three equal groups who were taught to control their own heart rates by autogenic training and biofeedback under dark and sound-isolated conditions. Group I was parasympathetic dominant, group II was sympathetic dominant, and group III consisted of parasympathetic-dominant subjects and controls who received only biofeedback of their own heart rates. The results corroborate three hypotheses: (1) subjects with para-sympathetic-dominant autonomic profiles perform in a way that is both qualitatively and quantitatively different from subjects with sympathetic-dominant autonomic profiles; (2) tests of interindividual variability yield data relevant to individual performance in visceral learning tasks; and (3) the combined use of autogenic training, biofeedback, and verbal feedback is suitable for conditioning large stable autonomic responses in humans.

  13. Intake of Milk or Fermented Milk Combined With Fruit and Vegetable Consumption in Relation to Hip Fracture Rates: A Cohort Study of Swedish Women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michaëlsson, Karl; Wolk, Alicja; Lemming, Eva Warensjö; Melhus, Håkan; Byberg, Liisa

    2018-03-01

    Milk products may differ in pro-oxidant properties and their effects on fracture risk could potentially be modified by the intake of foods with antioxidant activity. In the population-based Swedish Mammography Cohort study, we aimed to determine how milk and fermented milk combined with fruit and vegetable consumption are associated with hip fracture. Women born in 1914-1948 (n = 61,240) answered food frequency and lifestyle questionnaires in 1987-1990 and 38,071 women contributed with updated information in 1997. During a mean follow-up of 22 years, 5827 women had a hip fracture (ascertained via official register data). Compared with a low intake of milk (yogurt or soured milk) yielded a different pattern with lowest rates of hip fracture in high consumers: HR, 0.81 (95% CI, 0.68 to 0.97) for ≥2 servings/day of fermented milk and ≥5 servings/day of fruits and vegetables compared with low consumption of both fruit and vegetables and fermented milk. We conclude that the amount and type of dairy products as well as fruit and vegetable intake are differentially associated with hip fracture rates in women. © 2017 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research. © 2017 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

  14. Spontaneous mutation rates and the rate-doubling dose

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Von Borstel, R.C.; Moustaccki, E.; Latarjet, R.

    1978-01-01

    The amount of radiation required to double the frequency of mutations or tumours over the rate of those that occur spontaneously is called the rate-doubling dose. An equivalent concept has been proposed for exposure to other environmental mutagens. The doubling dose concept is predicated on the assumption that all human populations have the same spontaneous mutation rate, and that this spontaneous mutation rate is known. It is now established for prokaryotes and lower eukaryotes that numerous genes control the spontaneous mutation rate, and it is likely that the same is true for human cells as well. Given that the accepted mode of evolution of human populatons is from small, isolated groups of individuals, it seems likely that each population would have a different spontaneous mutation rate. Given that a minimum of twenty genes control or affect the spontaneous mutation rate, and that each of these in turn is susceptible to spontaneously arising or environmentally induced mutations, it seems likely that every individual within a population (except for siblings from identical multiple births) will have a unique spontaneous mutation rate. If each individual in a population does have a different spontaneous mutation rate, the doubling dose concept, in rigorous terms, is fallacious. Therefore, as with other concepts of risk evaluation, the doubling dose concept is subject to criticism. Nevertheless, until we know individual spontaneous mutation rates with precision, and can evaluate risks based on this information, the doubling dose concept has a heuristic value and is needed for practical assessment of risks for defined populations. (author)

  15. A software reconfigurable optical multiband UWB system utilizing a bit-loading combined with adaptive LDPC code rate scheme

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Jing; Dai, Min; Chen, Qinghui; Deng, Rui; Xiang, Changqing; Chen, Lin

    2017-07-01

    In this paper, an effective bit-loading combined with adaptive LDPC code rate algorithm is proposed and investigated in software reconfigurable multiband UWB over fiber system. To compensate the power fading and chromatic dispersion for the high frequency of multiband OFDM UWB signal transmission over standard single mode fiber (SSMF), a Mach-Zehnder modulator (MZM) with negative chirp parameter is utilized. In addition, the negative power penalty of -1 dB for 128 QAM multiband OFDM UWB signal are measured at the hard-decision forward error correction (HD-FEC) limitation of 3.8 × 10-3 after 50 km SSMF transmission. The experimental results show that, compared to the fixed coding scheme with the code rate of 75%, the signal-to-noise (SNR) is improved by 2.79 dB for 128 QAM multiband OFDM UWB system after 100 km SSMF transmission using ALCR algorithm. Moreover, by employing bit-loading combined with ALCR algorithm, the bit error rate (BER) performance of system can be further promoted effectively. The simulation results present that, at the HD-FEC limitation, the value of Q factor is improved by 3.93 dB at the SNR of 19.5 dB over 100 km SSMF transmission, compared to the fixed modulation with uncoded scheme at the same spectrum efficiency (SE).

  16. Heart rate variability and increased risk for developing type 2 diabetes mellitus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penčić-Popović, Biljana; Ćelić, Vera; Ćosić, Zoran; Pavlović-Kleut, Milena; Čaparević, Zorica; Kostić, Nada; Milovanović, Branislav; Šljivić, Aleksandra; Stojčevski, Biljana

    2014-12-01

    To our knowledge there are no data about the relationship between elevated risk for developing type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM2) and altered cardiac autonomic function. The aim of this study was to evaluate the association between heart rate variability (HRV) and slightly increased risk for DM2. We evaluated 69 subjects (50.0 ± 14.4 years; 30 male) without DM2, coronary artery disease and arrhythmias. The subjects were divided into two groups according to the Finnish Diabetes Risk Score (FINDRISC): group I (n = 39) included subjects with 12 > FINDRISC ≥ 7; group II (n = 30) subjects with FINDRISC power--TP (7.2 ± 0.3 ln/ms2 vs 7.3 ± 0.3 ln/ms2; p = 0.029), and low frequency--LF (5.9 ± 0.4 ln/ms2 vs 6.3 ± 0.6 In/ms2; p = 0.006), over entire 24 h, as well as TP (7.1 ± 0.3 In/ms2 vs 7.3 ± 0.3 In/ms2; p = 0.004), very low frequency (6.2 ± 0.2 In/ms2 vs 6.3 ± 0.2 In/ms2; p = 0.030), LF (5.9 ± 0.4 In/ms2 vs 6.2 ± 0.3 In/ms2; p = 0.000) and high frequency (5.7 ± 0.4 In/ms2 vs 5.9 ± 0.4 In/ms2; p = 0.011) during the daytime compared to the group II. Nocturnal frequency domain analysis was similar between the groups. The low diurnal frequency was independently related to elevated risk for diabetes mellitus (beta = -0,331; p = 0.006). The obtained results suggest that even slightly elevated risk for developing diabetes mellitus may be related to impaired HRV.

  17. Sensation seeking related to varied definition of risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dastol, O.U.; Drottz-Sjoberg, B.M.

    1998-01-01

    This pilot study is based on the assumption that the normal use of the word risk varies across subjects. It has been shown in previous risk perception studies that some people report their definition or normal use of the concept of risk as e.g. mainly probability, a combination of probability and consequences, mainly consequences, or due to the nature of the event (Drottz-Sjoeberg, 1991). Another field of research has developed measures for personality traits, i.e. facets of Sensation Seeking; Disinhibition, Thrill and Adventure Seeking, Experience Seeking, and Boredom Susceptibility (Zuckerman, 1994). The design of the present study involved three independent groups of first year psychology students (N=93). They were presented with one of three response formats regarding their normal use of the word risk, i.e. an open-ended format, separate ratings of four items suggesting a definition of risk on five-point scales, and one single five-point scale with the extremes labelled probability and consequences, and with their combination as the scale mid-point. The results showed, e.g. that the typical open-ended response to the personal definition of risk was 'danger', but among the responses were also 'chance', and 'outcome'. Another finding was that people who defined risk as 'outcome' and 'chance', using the open-ended format tended to score higher on the total Sensation Seeking Scale than those who defined risk as 'danger'. In addition, subjects who defined risk as the 'combination' of probability and consequences, using other response formats, also tended to score higher on the total Sensation Seeking Scale (SSS), especially as compared to those defining risk as the 'probability' of an event. (authors)

  18. Combined ultrasound and fluoroscopy guided port catheter implantation-High success and low complication rate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gebauer, Bernhard; El-Sheik, Michael; Vogt, Michael; Wagner, Hans-Joachim

    2009-01-01

    Purpose: To evaluate peri-procedural, early and late complications as well as patients' acceptance of combined ultrasound and fluoroscopy guided radiological port catheter implantation. Materials and methods: In a retrospective analysis, all consecutive radiological port catheter implantations (n = 299) between August 2002 and December 2004 were analyzed. All implantations were performed in an angio suite under analgosedation and antibiotic prophylaxis. Port insertion was guided by ultrasonographic puncture of the jugular (n = 298) or subclavian (n = 1) vein and fluoroscopic guidance of catheter placement. All data of the port implantation had been prospectively entered into a database for interventional radiological procedures. To assess long-term results, patients, relatives or primary physicians were interviewed by telephone; additional data were generated from the hospital information system. Patients and/or the relatives were asked about their satisfaction with the port implantion procedure and long-term results. Results: The technical success rate was 99% (298/299). There were no major complications according to the grading system of SIR. A total of 23 (0.33 per 1000 catheter days) complications (early (n = 4), late (n = 19)) were recorded in the follow-period of a total of 72,727 indwelling catheter days. Infectious complications accounted for 0.15, thrombotic for 0.07 and migration for 0.04 complications per 1000 catheter days. Most complications were successfully treated by interventional measures. Twelve port catheters had to be explanted due to complications, mainly because of infection (n = 9). Patients' and relatives' satisfaction with the port catheter system was very high, even if complications occurred. Conclusion: Combined ultrasound and fluoroscopy guided port catheter implantation is a very safe and reliable procedure with low peri-procedural, early and late complication rate. The intervention achieves very high acceptance by the patients and

  19. Background for a new standard on pass-by measurement of combined roughness, track decay rate and vibroacoustic transfer functions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dittrich, M.G.; Létourneaux, F.; Dupuis, H.

    2013-01-01

    A measurement method for combined roughness, track decay rates and transfer functions derived from rail vibration during a train pass-by was initially developed in the late nineties [1]. This method has been then later implemented in software tools [2] and applied in several countries for various

  20. Perceptions of Community HIV/ STI Risk Among U.S Women Living in Areas with High Poverty and HIV Prevalence Rates

    OpenAIRE

    Blackstock, Oni J.; Frew, Paula; Bota, Dorothy; Vo-Green, Linda; Parker, Kim; Franks, Julie; Hodder, Sally L.; Justman, Jessica; Golin, Carol E.; Haley, Danielle F.; Kuo, Irene; Adimora, Adaora A.; Rompalo, Anne; Soto-Torres, Lydia; Wang, Jing

    2015-01-01

    Although studies have consistently demonstrated that women at high risk for HIV and non-HIV sexually transmitted infections (STIs) tend to underestimate their individual risk, little is known about how women at risk perceive their community’s HIV/STI risk. We explored perceptions of community HIV/ STI risk among U.S. women living in areas with high poverty and HIV prevalence rates as part of a qualitative substudy of the Women’s HIV SeroIncidence Study. Semi-structured focus groups were condu...

  1. THE APPLICATION OF RISK BASED BANK RATING ON BANKRUPTCY PREDICTION OF BANKS IN INDONESIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Evi Sistiyarini

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The increase of banking products and services which is more complex will increase the risk to the banks. Therefore, to anticipate the rise of financial difficulties in a bank, the early warning system. This study aimed to find the influence RBBR (Risk Based Bank Rating ratio’s to predict bankruptcy of conventional Banks in Indonesia. Ratio of RBBR consisted of risk profile, Good Corporate Governance, profitability and capital. Independent variables used were NPL, PDN, LDR, GCG, ROA and NIM, and CAR. Dependent variable was bank bankruptcy using dummy variable. The population of this study was all of the conventional banks in Indonesia. The data was a secondary data taken form financial report of conventional bank 2011-2015. Technical sampling used was a purposive sampling method with some criteria. The analysis of this study used logistic regression.The result of the study showed that NPL, PDN, LDR, GCG, ROA and NIM, and CARhad no significant influence to bankruptcy of the bank.

  2. Predicting the short-term risk of diabetes in HIV-positive patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petoumenos, Kathy; Worm, Signe W; Fontas, Eric

    2012-01-01

    HIV-positive patients receiving combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) frequently experience metabolic complications such as dyslipidemia and insulin resistance, as well as lipodystrophy, increasing the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and diabetes mellitus (DM). Rates of DM and other...

  3. Determining the Relationship between U.S. County-Level Adult Obesity Rate and Multiple Risk Factors by PLS Regression and SVM Modeling Approaches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chau-Kuang Chen

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Data from the Center for Disease Control (CDC has shown that the obesity rate doubled among adults within the past two decades. This upsurge was the result of changes in human behavior and environment. Partial least squares (PLS regression and support vector machine (SVM models were conducted to determine the relationship between U.S. county-level adult obesity rate and multiple risk factors. The outcome variable was the adult obesity rate. The 23 risk factors were categorized into four domains of the social ecological model including biological/behavioral factor, socioeconomic status, food environment, and physical environment. Of the 23 risk factors related to adult obesity, the top eight significant risk factors with high normalized importance were identified including physical inactivity, natural amenity, percent of households receiving SNAP benefits, and percent of all restaurants being fast food. The study results were consistent with those in the literature. The study showed that adult obesity rate was influenced by biological/behavioral factor, socioeconomic status, food environment, and physical environment embedded in the social ecological theory. By analyzing multiple risk factors of obesity in the communities, may lead to the proposal of more comprehensive and integrated policies and intervention programs to solve the population-based problem.

  4. [Influence of the comorbidity diseases and risk factors on development of the combined peptic ulcer of the stomach and the duodenum].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stepanishcheva, L A; Sarsenbaeva, A S; Fattakhova, N V

    2013-01-01

    To define influence of the comorbidity diseases and risk factors of development of the combined peptic ulcer of a stomach and duodenum. As a result of carried-out poll and inspection 250 patients with an exacerbation of a peptic ulcer were surveyed. Patients were distributed in 3 groups of observation depending on localization of ulcerative process. At all surveyed questioning was carried out, data on hereditary load, smoking, alcohol intake, existence of somatopathies were specified, clinic-morphological implications of a peptic ulcer were studied. The peptic ulcer of a stomach is characteristic for women (72.1%) and develops mainly aged from 45 till 59 years (60.3%). Peptic ulcer of duodenum men (76.3%) suffer mainly, the debut is the share in most cases of age from 18 to 44 years (79.1%). The combined canker of a stomach and duodenum meets at males (61.2%) more often, is initially involved in process ulcerogenesis by duodenum generally aged from 30 till 44 years (64.2%), accession of a canker of a stomach happens is delayed (at 38.8% within 16 and more years). In the analysis of risk factors at patients with the combined peptic ulcer of a stomach and duodenum depending on existence or absence specific to this category of patients of a background from such comorbidity diseases as IBS, HOBL and widespread osteochondrosis taped that larger prevalence of smoking (100%) and as the use (50%) and the excessive use (50%), alcohol are characteristic for the patients having a high comorbidity (a combination of three above nosologies). The greatest interest in respect of possible communication with formation of the combined peptic ulcer of a stomach and duodenum is represented by IBS, HOBL and osteochondrosis. And major factors of risk were smoking, the excessive alcohol intake, the burdened heredity.

  5. Self-rated Health and Internet Addiction in Iranian Medical Sciences Students; Prevalence, Risk Factors and Complications

    OpenAIRE

    Mohammadbeigi, Abolfazl; Valizadeh, Farzaneh; Mirshojaee, Seyede Roqaie; Ahmadli, Robabeh; Mokhtari, Mohsen; Ghaderi, Ebrahim; Ahmadi, Ali; Rezaei, Heshmatollah; Ansari, Hossein

    2016-01-01

    Introduction: Self-rated health is a brief measure for general health. It is a comprehensive and sensitive index for prediction of health in future. Due to the high internet usage in medical students, the current study designed to evaluate the self-rated health (SRH) in relationship with internet addiction risk factors in medical students. Methods: This cross sectional study conducted on 254 students of Qom University of Medical Sciences 2014. Participants selected by two stage sampling metho...

  6. Risk management algorithm for rear-side collision avoidance using a combined steering torque overlay and differential braking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Junyung; Yi, Kyongsu; Yoo, Hyunjae; Chong, Hyokjin; Ko, Bongchul

    2015-06-01

    This paper describes a risk management algorithm for rear-side collision avoidance. The proposed risk management algorithm consists of a supervisor and a coordinator. The supervisor is designed to monitor collision risks between the subject vehicle and approaching vehicle in the adjacent lane. An appropriate criterion of intervention, which satisfies high acceptance to drivers through the consideration of a realistic traffic, has been determined based on the analysis of the kinematics of the vehicles in longitudinal and lateral directions. In order to assist the driver actively and increase driver's safety, a coordinator is designed to combine lateral control using a steering torque overlay by motor-driven power steering and differential braking by vehicle stability control. In order to prevent the collision while limiting actuator's control inputs and vehicle dynamics to safe values for the assurance of the driver's comfort, the Lyapunov theory and linear matrix inequalities based optimisation methods have been used. The proposed risk management algorithm has been evaluated via simulation using CarSim and MATLAB/Simulink.

  7. A combined QSAR and partial order ranking approach to risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlsen, L

    2006-04-01

    QSAR generated data appear as an attractive alternative to experimental data as foreseen in the proposed new chemicals legislation REACH. A preliminary risk assessment for the aquatic environment can be based on few factors, i.e. the octanol-water partition coefficient (Kow), the vapour pressure (VP) and the potential biodegradability of the compound in combination with the predicted no-effect concentration (PNEC) and the actual tonnage in which the substance is produced. Application of partial order ranking, allowing simultaneous inclusion of several parameters leads to a mutual prioritisation of the investigated substances, the prioritisation possibly being further analysed through the concept of linear extensions and average ranks. The ranking uses endpoint values (log Kow and log VP) derived from strictly linear 'noise-deficient' QSAR models as input parameters. Biodegradation estimates were adopted from the BioWin module of the EPI Suite. The population growth impairment of Tetrahymena pyriformis was used as a surrogate for fish lethality.

  8. Assessment of the Appalachian Basin Geothermal Field: Combining Risk Factors to Inform Development of Low Temperature Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, J. D.; Whealton, C.; Camp, E. R.; Horowitz, F.; Frone, Z. S.; Jordan, T. E.; Stedinger, J. R.

    2015-12-01

    Exploration methods for deep geothermal energy projects must primarily consider whether or not a location has favorable thermal resources. Even where the thermal field is favorable, other factors may impede project development and success. A combined analysis of these factors and their uncertainty is a strategy for moving geothermal energy proposals forward from the exploration phase at the scale of a basin to the scale of a project, and further to design of geothermal systems. For a Department of Energy Geothermal Play Fairway Analysis we assessed quality metrics, which we call risk factors, in the Appalachian Basin of New York, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. These included 1) thermal field variability, 2) productivity of natural reservoirs from which to extract heat, 3) potential for induced seismicity, and 4) presence of thermal utilization centers. The thermal field was determined using a 1D heat flow model for 13,400 bottomhole temperatures (BHT) from oil and gas wells. Steps included the development of i) a set of corrections to BHT data and ii) depth models of conductivity stratigraphy at each borehole based on generalized stratigraphy that was verified for a select set of wells. Wells are control points in a spatial statistical analysis that resulted in maps of the predicted mean thermal field properties and of the standard error of the predicted mean. Seismic risk was analyzed by comparing earthquakes and stress orientations in the basin to gravity and magnetic potential field edges at depth. Major edges in the potential fields served as interpolation boundaries for the thermal maps (Figure 1). Natural reservoirs were identified from published studies, and productivity was determined based on the expected permeability and dimensions of each reservoir. Visualizing the natural reservoirs and population centers on a map of the thermal field communicates options for viable pilot sites and project designs (Figure 1). Furthermore, combining the four risk

  9. Construction of radioelement and dose rate baseline maps by combining ground and airborne radiometric data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rybach, L.; Medici, F.; Schwarz, G.F.

    1997-01-01

    For emergency situations like nuclear accidents, lost isotopic sources, debris of reactor-powered satellites etc. well-documented baseline information is indispensable. Maps of cosmic, terrestrial natural and artificial radiation can be constructed by assembling different datasets such as ground and airborne gamma spectrometry, direct dose rate measurements, and soil/rock samples. The in situ measurements were calibrated using the soil samples taken at/around the field measurement sites, the airborne measurements by a combination of in situ, and soil/rock sample data. The radioelement concentrations (Bq/kg) were in turn converted to dose-rate (nSv/h). First, the cosmic radiation map was constructed from a digital terrain model, averaging topographic heights within cells of 2 km X 2 km size. For the terrestrial radiation a total of 1615 ground data points were available, in addition to the airborne data. The artificial radiation map (Chernobyl and earlier fallout) has the smallest data base (184 data points from airborne and ground measurements). The dose rate map was constructed by summing up the above-mentioned contributions. It relies on a data base which corresponds to a density of about 1 point per 25 km 2 . The cosmic radiation map shows elevated dose rates in the high parts of the Swiss Alps. The cosmic dose rate ranges from 40 to 190 nSv/h, depending on altitude. The terrestrial dose rate maps show general agreement with lithology: elevated dose rates (100 to 200 nSv/h) characterize the Central Massifs of the Alps where crystalline rocks give a maximum of 370 nSv/h, whereas the sedimentary northern Alpine Foreland (Jura, Molasse basin) shows consistently lower dose rates (40-100 nSv/h). The artificial radiation map has its maximum value in the southern part of Switzerland (90 nSv/h). The map of total dose rate exhibits values from 55 to 570 nSv/h. These values are considerably higher than reported in the Radiation Atlas (''Natural Sources of Ionising

  10. Birth weight, childhood body mass index and risk of coronary heart disease in adults: combined historical cohort studies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lise Geisler Andersen

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Low birth weight and high childhood body mass index (BMI is each associated with an increased risk of coronary heart disease (CHD in adult life. We studied individual and combined associations of birth weight and childhood BMI with the risk of CHD in adulthood. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Birth weight and BMI at age seven years were available in 216,771 Danish and Finnish individuals born 1924-1976. Linkage to national registers for hospitalization and causes of death identified 8,805 CHD events during up to 33 years of follow-up (median = 24 years after age 25 years. Analyses were conducted with Cox regression based on restricted cubic splines. Using median birth weight of 3.4 kg as reference, a non-linear relation between birth weight and CHD was found. It was not significantly different between cohorts, or between men and women, nor was the association altered by childhood BMI. For birth weights below 3.4 kg, the risk of CHD increased linearly and reached 1.28 (95% confidence limits: 1.13 to 1.44 at 2 kg. Above 3.4 kg the association weakened, and from about 4 kg there was virtually no association. BMI at age seven years was strongly positively associated with the risk of CHD and the relation was not altered by birth weight. The excess risk in individuals with a birth weight of 2.5 kg and a BMI of 17.7 kg/m(2 at age seven years was 44% (95% CI: 30% to 59% compared with individuals with median values of birth weight (3.4 kg and BMI (15.3 kg/m(2. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Birth weight and BMI at age seven years appeared independently associated with the risk of CHD in adulthood. From a public health perspective we suggest that particular attention should be paid to children with a birth weight below the average in combination with excess relative weight in childhood.

  11. The association between social networks and self-rated risk of HIV infection among secondary school students in Moshi Municipality, Tanzania

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lyimo, Elizabeth; Todd, Jim; Richey, Lisa Ann

    2013-01-01

    This study describes the social networks of secondary school students in Moshi Municipality, and their association with self-rated risk of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. A cross-sectional analytical study was conducted among 300 students aged 15–24 years in 5 secondary schools...... participation in bonding and bridging social networks and self-rated HIV risk behavior. More participants participated in bonding networks (72%) than in bridging networks (29%). Participation in bridging networks was greater among females (25%) than males (12%, p 

  12. Recruitment Methods and Show Rates to a Prostate Cancer Early Detection Program for High-Risk Men: A Comprehensive Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giri, Veda N.; Coups, Elliot J.; Ruth, Karen; Goplerud, Julia; Raysor, Susan; Kim, Taylor Y.; Bagden, Loretta; Mastalski, Kathleen; Zakrzewski, Debra; Leimkuhler, Suzanne; Watkins-Bruner, Deborah

    2009-01-01

    Purpose Men with a family history (FH) of prostate cancer (PCA) and African American (AA) men are at higher risk for PCA. Recruitment and retention of these high-risk men into early detection programs has been challenging. We report a comprehensive analysis on recruitment methods, show rates, and participant factors from the Prostate Cancer Risk Assessment Program (PRAP), which is a prospective, longitudinal PCA screening study. Materials and Methods Men 35–69 years are eligible if they have a FH of PCA, are AA, or have a BRCA1/2 mutation. Recruitment methods were analyzed with respect to participant demographics and show to the first PRAP appointment using standard statistical methods Results Out of 707 men recruited, 64.9% showed to the initial PRAP appointment. More individuals were recruited via radio than from referral or other methods (χ2 = 298.13, p < .0001). Men recruited via radio were more likely to be AA (p<0.001), less educated (p=0.003), not married or partnered (p=0.007), and have no FH of PCA (p<0.001). Men recruited via referrals had higher incomes (p=0.007). Men recruited via referral were more likely to attend their initial PRAP visit than those recruited by radio or other methods (χ2 = 27.08, p < .0001). Conclusions This comprehensive analysis finds that radio leads to higher recruitment of AA men with lower socioeconomic status. However, these are the high-risk men that have lower show rates for PCA screening. Targeted motivational measures need to be studied to improve show rates for PCA risk assessment for these high-risk men. PMID:19758657

  13. A combined neural network and mechanistic approach for the prediction of corrosion rate and yield strength of magnesium-rare earth alloys

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Birbilis, N., E-mail: nick.birbilis@monash.ed [ARC Centre of Excellence for Design in Light Metals, Monash University (Australia); CAST Co-operative Research Centre, Monash University (Australia); Cavanaugh, M.K. [Department of Materials Science and Engineering, The Ohio State University (United States); Sudholz, A.D. [ARC Centre of Excellence for Design in Light Metals, Monash University (Australia); Zhu, S.M.; Easton, M.A. [CAST Co-operative Research Centre, Monash University (Australia); Gibson, M.A. [CSIRO Division of Process Science and Engineering (Australia)

    2011-01-15

    Research highlights: This study presents a body of corrosion data for a set of custom alloys and displays this in multivariable space. These alloys represent the next generation of Mg alloys for auto applications. The data is processed using an ANN model, which makes it possible to yield a single expression for prediction of corrosion rate (and strength) as a function of any input composition (of Ce, La or Nd between 0 and 6 wt.%). The relative influence of the various RE elements on corrosion is assessed, with the outcome that Nd additions can offer comparable strength with minimal rise in corrosion rate. The morphology and solute present in the eutectic region itself (as opposed to just the intermetallic presence) was shown - for the first time - to also be a key contributor to corrosion. The above approach sets the foundation for rational alloy design of alloys with corrosion performance in mind. - Abstract: Additions of Ce, La and Nd to Mg were made in binary, ternary and quaternary combinations up to {approx}6 wt.%. This provided a dataset that was used in developing a neural network model for predicting corrosion rate and yield strength. Whilst yield strength increased with RE additions, corrosion rates also systematically increased, however, this depended on the type of RE element added and the combination of elements added (along with differences in intermetallic morphology). This work is permits an understanding of Mg-RE alloy performance, and can be exploited in Mg alloy design for predictable combinations of strength and corrosion resistance.

  14. A combined neural network and mechanistic approach for the prediction of corrosion rate and yield strength of magnesium-rare earth alloys

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Birbilis, N.; Cavanaugh, M.K.; Sudholz, A.D.; Zhu, S.M.; Easton, M.A.; Gibson, M.A.

    2011-01-01

    Research highlights: → This study presents a body of corrosion data for a set of custom alloys and displays this in multivariable space. These alloys represent the next generation of Mg alloys for auto applications. → The data is processed using an ANN model, which makes it possible to yield a single expression for prediction of corrosion rate (and strength) as a function of any input composition (of Ce, La or Nd between 0 and 6 wt.%). → The relative influence of the various RE elements on corrosion is assessed, with the outcome that Nd additions can offer comparable strength with minimal rise in corrosion rate. → The morphology and solute present in the eutectic region itself (as opposed to just the intermetallic presence) was shown - for the first time - to also be a key contributor to corrosion. → The above approach sets the foundation for rational alloy design of alloys with corrosion performance in mind. - Abstract: Additions of Ce, La and Nd to Mg were made in binary, ternary and quaternary combinations up to ∼6 wt.%. This provided a dataset that was used in developing a neural network model for predicting corrosion rate and yield strength. Whilst yield strength increased with RE additions, corrosion rates also systematically increased, however, this depended on the type of RE element added and the combination of elements added (along with differences in intermetallic morphology). This work is permits an understanding of Mg-RE alloy performance, and can be exploited in Mg alloy design for predictable combinations of strength and corrosion resistance.

  15. [Combination drug therapy in patients with BPH].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuzmenko, A V; Kuzmenko, V V; Gyaurgiev, T A

    2018-03-01

    Introuction. One of the risk factors for LUTS is an infravesical obstruction, which is most often caused by benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH). BPH symptoms are formed due to three components: static (mechanical), dynamic, and impaired functional capacity of the bladder. Medical treatment with 1-blockers decreases the outflow obstruction. 5-alpha reductase inhibitors are used to inhibit the static component of BPH. To investigate the effectiveness of various modifications of medical therapy of BPH using -blockers and 5-reductase inhibitors and combinations thereof. The study comprised 90 BPH patients who were divided into three groups, with each group containing 30 people. Patients of group I, II and III received monotherapy with -blockers, a combination of 5-reductase and -blockers, and fixed-dose combination drug Duodart, respectively. Evaluation of the treatment effectiveness included filling out voiding diaries, completing the I-PSS and QL questionnaires, uroflowmetry, transrectal ultrasonography of the prostate and estimation of the incidence of adverse effects. Also, compliance with the treatment was evaluated, and the number of patients who had episodes of acute urinary retention and required surgical treatment during the 12 month treatment course was registered. Compared to monotherapy, combination therapy with -blockers and 5-reductase inhibitors more effectively reduces the LUTS, increases Qmax and prevents the disease progression, which manifests in a lower incidence of AUR and fewer surgical interventions in groups II and III. However, the combination therapy can be associated with some side effects. Patients who received fixed-dose combination drug Duodart had a greater compliance rate than patients on the combination of drugs, which, in our opinion, is associated with fewer cases of AUR and surgical interventions. The use of Duodart in patients with BPH effectively alleviates LUTS and reduces the risk of the disease progression, which manifests itself

  16. Risk factors and outcomes of high peritonitis rate in continuous ambulatory peritoneal dialysis patients: A retrospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Yuanshi; Xie, Xishao; Xiang, Shilong; Yang, Xin; Zhang, Xiaohui; Shou, Zhangfei; Chen, Jianghua

    2016-12-01

    Peritonitis remains a major complication of peritoneal dialysis (PD). A high peritonitis rate (HPR) affects continuous ambulatory peritoneal dialysis (CAPD) patients' technique survival and mortality. Predictors and outcomes of HPR, rather than the first peritonitis episode, were rarely studied in the Chinese population. In this study, we examined the risk factors associated with HPR and its effects on clinical outcomes in CAPD patients.This is a single center, retrospective, observational cohort study. A total of 294 patients who developing at least 1 episode of peritonitis were followed up from March 1st, 2002, to July 31, 2014, in our PD center. Multivariate logistic regression was used to determine the factors associated with HPR, and the Cox proportional hazard model was conducted to assess the effects of HPR on clinical outcomes.During the study period of 2917.5 patient-years, 489 episodes of peritonitis were recorded, and the total peritonitis rate was 0.168 episodes per patient-year. The multivariate analysis showed that factors associated with HPR include a quick occurrence of peritonitis after CAPD initiation (shorter than 12 months), and a low serum albumin level at the start of CAPD. In the Cox proportional hazard model, HPR was a significant predictor of technique failure. There were no differences between HPR and low peritonitis rate (LPR) group for all-cause mortality. However, when the peritonitis rate was considered as a continuous variable, a positive correlation was observed between the peritonitis rate and mortality.We found the quick peritonitis occurrence after CAPD and the low serum albumin level before CAPD were strongly associated with an HPR. Also, our results verified that HPR was positively correlated with technique failure. More importantly, the increase in the peritonitis rate suggested a higher risk of all-cause mortality.These results may help to identify and target patients who are at higher risk of HPR at the start of CAPD and to

  17. Exchange rate risk in Central European countries

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kočenda, Evžen; Poghosyan, T.

    2010-01-01

    Roč. 60, č. 1 (2010), s. 22-39 ISSN 0015-1920 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA402/08/1376; GA MŠk LC542 Institutional research plan: CEZ:MSM0021620846 Keywords : foreign exchange risk * time-varying risk premium * stochastic discount factor Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.278, year: 2010 http://journal.fsv.cuni.cz/storage/1178_str_22_39_-_ko%C4%8Denda.pdf

  18. Synthesis of Enterprise and Value-Based Methods for Multiattribute Risk Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kenley, C. Robert; Collins, John W.; Beck, John M.; Heydt, Harold J.; Garcia, Chad B.

    2001-01-01

    This paper describes a method for performing multiattribute decision analysis to prioritize ap-proaches to handling risks during the development and operation of complex socio-technical systems. The method combines risk categorization based on enterprise views, risk prioritization of the categories based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), and more standard probability-consequence ratings schemes. We also apply value-based testing me-thods used in software development to prioritize risk-handling approaches. We describe a tool that synthesizes the methods and performs a multiattribute analysis of the technical and pro-grammatic risks on the Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) enterprise.

  19. Constraining proposed combinations of ice history and Earth rheology using VLBI determined baseline length rates in North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitrovica, J. X.; Davis, J. L.; Shapiro, I. I.

    1993-01-01

    We predict the present-day rates of change of the lengths of 19 North American baselines due to the glacial isostatic adjustment process. Contrary to previously published research, we find that the three dimensional motion of each of the sites defining a baseline, rather than only the radial motions of these sites, needs to be considered to obtain an accurate estimate of the rate of change of the baseline length. Predictions are generated using a suite of Earth models and late Pleistocene ice histories, these include specific combinations of the two which have been proposed in the literature as satisfying a variety of rebound related geophysical observations from the North American region. A number of these published models are shown to predict rates which differ significantly from the VLBI observations.

  20. Quantification of Gains and Risks of Static Thermal Rating Based on Typical Meteorological Year

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Heckenbergerová, Jana; Musílek, P.; Filimonenkov, K.

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 44, č. 1 (2013), s. 227-235 ISSN 0142-0615 R&D Projects: GA MŠk LD12009 Grant - others:GA AV ČR(CZ) M100300904 Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : Overhead power transmission lines * Conductor ampacity * Probabilistic static thermal rating * Typical meteorological year * Risk tolerance * Energy throughput Subject RIV: JE - Non-nuclear Energetics, Energy Consumption ; Use Impact factor: 3.432, year: 2012

  1. Teaching Exchange Rate Risk Using London's Gherkin Building: How Investors Were in (and out of) a Pickle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Adam T.; Sackley, William H.; Watson, Ethan D.

    2017-01-01

    In this teaching note, the authors use an iconic London building, the Gherkin, as a motivation to understand exchange rates, cross exchange rates, and unhedged exchange rate risk. The famous tower was constructed in the early 2000s by Swiss Re, an insurance company, and then sold to investors as part of a sale-leaseback deal in early 2007.…

  2. Effects of Combined exergame and conventional exercise to reduce and prevent fall risk among elderly people: A Hypothesis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hassan Sadeghi

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Background: Falling among old individuals has provoked ceaseless discussion among gerontologists and physical therapists and it is still one of the greatest issues among this population. Loss of the balance and functional mobility is the main reason of falling. There have been numerous studies conducting the effect of the conventional balance exercise and exergame independently on balance and functional mobility of elderly. Previous studies lacked dealing with the effect of combined exergame and conventional exercise on the balance and functional mobility. Combined exercises are enjoyable and may have more effective to improve balance and performance to reduce risk of fall among elderly people. This package would be preferable for older people. Objective: We hypothesize that while conventional balance exercise and exergame improve balance and functional mobility, combined both types of exercise would superior improvements in elderly performance. Conclusion: Ultimately we expect that this hypothesis will provide a useful framework for facilitating combined exergame and conventional balance intervention in older people.

  3. Analyse of the prevalence rate and risk factors of pulmonary embolism in the patients with dyspnea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cao Yanxia; Su Jian; Wang Bingsheng; Wu Songhong; Dai Ruiting; Cao Caixia

    2005-01-01

    Objective: To analyse the prevalence rate and risk factors of pulmonary embolism (PE) in patients with dyspnea and to explore the predisposing causes and its early clinical manifestations. Methods: Retrospective analysis was done in 461 patients with dyspnea performed 99 Tc m -macroaggregated albumin (MAA) lung perfusion imaging and 99 Tc m -DTPA ventilation imaging or 99 Tc m -MAA perfusion imaging and chest X-ray examination. Among them, 48 cases without apparent disease were considered as control group, whereas the remaining patients with other underlying illnesses as patients group. PEMS statistics software package was used for estimation of prevalence rate, χ 2 test and PE risk factor analysis. Results: There were 251 PE patients among 461 patients, the prevalence rate [ (π)=95% confidence interval (CI) ] was: lower extremity thrombosis and varicosity (80.79-95.47 ), post cesarean section (55.64-87.12), lower extremity bone surgery or fracture (52.76-87.27 ), cancer operation (52.19-78.19), atrial fibrillation or heart failure (53.30-74.88), obesity (23.14-50.20), post abdominal surgery (20.23-59.43), diabetes (19.12-63.95), chronic bronchitis (1.80-23.06), normal control group (3.47-22.66). Except chronic bronchitis, PE prevalence rate between patients group and control group had significant difference (P 99 Tc m -MAA and DTPA lung imaging should be done as early as possible. (authors)

  4. Renewable fuels: Policy effectiveness and project risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leach, Andrew; Doucet, Joseph; Nickel, Trevor

    2011-01-01

    This paper examines the impact of government policy on the risk profile of a small ethanol production facility. We derive four key results from a simulation model. First, we show that commodity price risk may discourage investment in a project, despite a positive expected rate of return. Second, we show that political uncertainty may have significant impacts on the risk profile of a project. Next, we show that using only production subsidies to attract investors is expensive, since the financial assistance is paid regardless of whether the plant is operating under positive or negative financial conditions. Finally, we show that a capital grant provides a valuable complement to a subsidy, because the grant reduces the amount of value investors must put at risk, and increases their leverage thereby enhancing returns, while the subsidy mitigates commodity price risk. Our results show that compared to a subsidy-only approach, a grant and subsidy combination provides an investment environment with similar downside protection and expected returns for less than 60% of the cost. Further, we show that the two policy tools combined yield a superior investment environment to that created by an equivalent or greater total investment deployed entirely in either of the policy tools without the other. - Research highlights: → We find that government policy may increase both project returns and risk. → We find a policy of capital grants combined with an output price support to be preferred. → Price supports alone will tend to reward those plants which need them the least.

  5. High Rate Production of Clean Water Based on the Combined Photo-Electro-Thermal Effect of Graphene Architecture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, Linfan; Zhang, Panpan; Xiao, Yukun; Liang, Yuan; Liang, Hanxue; Cheng, Zhihua; Qu, Liangti

    2018-04-23

    The use of abundant solar energy for regeneration and desalination of water is a promising strategy to address the challenge of a global shortage of clean water. Progress has been made to develop photothermal materials to improve the solar steam generation performance. However, the mass production rate of water is still low. Herein, by a rational combination of photo-electro-thermal effect on an all-graphene hybrid architecture, solar energy can not only be absorbed fully and transferred into heat, but also converted into electric power to further heat up the graphene skeleton frame for a much enhanced generation of water vapor. As a result, the unique graphene evaporator reaches a record high water production rate of 2.01-2.61 kg m -2 h -1 under solar illumination of 1 kW m -2 even without system optimization. Several square meters of the graphene evaporators will provide a daily water supply that is enough for tens of people. The combination of photo-electro-thermal effect on graphene materials offers a new strategy to build a fast and scalable solar steam generation system, which makes an important step towards a solution for the scarcity of clean water. © 2018 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  6. Attenuated Heart Rate Recovery After Exercise Testing and Risk of Incident Hypertension in Men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jae, Sae Young; Bunsawat, Kanokwan; Fadel, Paul J; Fernhall, Bo; Choi, Yoon-Ho; Park, Jeong Bae; Franklin, Barry A

    2016-09-01

    Although attenuated heart rate recovery (HRR) and reduced heart rate (HR) reserve to maximal exercise testing are associated with adverse cardiovascular outcomes, their relation to incident hypertension in healthy normotensive populations is unclear. We examined the hypothesis that both attenuated HRR and reduced HR reserve to exercise testing are associated with incident hypertension in men. A total of 1,855 participants were selected comprising of healthy, initially normotensive men who underwent peak or symptom-limited treadmill testing at baseline. HRR was calculated as the difference between peak HR during exercise testing and the HR at 2 minutes after exercise cessation. HR reserve was calculated as the percentage of HR reserve (peak HR - resting HR)/(220 - age - resting HR) × 100. During an average 4-year follow-up, 179 (9.6%) men developed hypertension. Incident hypertension was associated with HRR quartiles (Q1 (57 bpm) 8.3%; P = 0.05 for trend). The relative risk (RR) of the incident hypertension in the slowest HRR quartile vs. the fastest HRR quartile was 1.78 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.14-2.78) after adjustment for confounders. Every 1 bpm increment in HRR was associated with a 2% (RR 0.98, 95% CI: 0.97-0.99) lower risk of incident hypertension after adjusting for potential confounders. In contrast, reduced HR reserve did not predict the risk of incident hypertension. Slow HRR after exercise testing is independently associated with the development of hypertension in healthy normotensive men. © American Journal of Hypertension, Ltd 2016. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  7. Late rectal bleeding and genitourinary morbidity after high dose rate brachytherapy combined with hypofractionated external beam radiotherapy for localized prostate cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ebara, Takeshi; Akimoto, Tetsuo; Kato, Hiroyuki

    2007-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to evaluate late rectal bleeding and genitourinary (GU) morbidity in patients consecutively treated with combined high-dose-rate (HDR) brachytherapy and external beam radiation therapy (EBRT). Data from 80 patients treated consecutively from October 2000 to May 2004 were analyzed. The median age was 69 years old, median follow-up 31 months, ranging from 17-59 months. All patients received endocrine therapy before radiation therapy. The patients were divided into low-, intermediate- and high-risk groups (4/24/52 patients) according to the risk factors defined by T-classification, prostatic specific antigen (PSA) and Gleason score. Fractionation schedules for HDR brachytherapy were prospectively changed, and EBRT was fixed with 3 Gy fractions to 51 Gy. The distribution of fractionation was scheduled as follows; 5 Gy x 5 times in 14 patients, 7 Gy x 3 times in 19 patients, and 9 Gy x 2 times in 47 patients. The rectal bleeding was graded using the toxicity criteria of the Radiation Therapy Oncology Group and European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer while the genitourinary morbidities were graded using the toxicity criteria of the Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events v.3.0. Grade 2 or worse rectal bleeding developed in 9 patients (11.3%) with the 2-year actuarial probability at 11.2%. Grade 2 and 3 rectal bleeding was recognized in 8 and 1 patients, respectively. Grade 3 morbidity developed in the biopsied sites that were performed in the other hospital. No significant difference was observed in any HDR brachytherapy fractionation schedule. Grade 2 or worse GU morbidities were recognized in 30 patients (37.5%), consisting of 29 Grade 2 patients and 1 Grade 3 patient. Twenty-one patients in Grade 2 morbidity had an increase in the frequency of urination or nocturia, and urethral strictures developed in 3 patients. The 3-year actuarial probability of urethral stricture was 6.0%. One patient experienced Grade 3

  8. Contemporary statistical procedures (Parametric Empirical Bayes) and nuclear plant event rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gaver, D.P.; Worledge, D.H.

    1985-01-01

    The conduct of a nuclear power plant probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) recognizes that each of a great many vital components and systems is subject to failure. One aspect of the PRA procedure is to quantify individual item failure propensity, often in terms of the failure rate parameter of an exponential distribution or Poisson process, and then to combine rates so as to effectively infer the probability of plant failure, e.g., core damage. The formal method of combination of such rates involves use of fault-tree analysis. The defensibility of the final fault-tree result depends both upon the adequacy of the failure representations of its components, and upon the correctness and inclusiveness of the fault tree logic. This paper focuses upon the first issue, in particular, upon contemporary proposals for deriving estimates of individual rates. The purpose of the paper is to present, in basically non-mathematical terms, the essential nature of some of these proposals, and an assessment of how they might fit into, and contribute positively to, a more defensible or trustworthy PRA process

  9. Mortality risks in new-onset childhood epilepsy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berg, Anne T; Nickels, Katherine; Wirrell, Elaine C; Geerts, Ada T; Callenbach, Petra M C; Arts, Willem F; Rios, Christina; Camfield, Peter R; Camfield, Carol S

    2013-07-01

    Estimate the causes and risk of death, specifically seizure related, in children followed from onset of epilepsy and to contrast the risk of seizure-related death with other common causes of death in the population. Mortality experiences from 4 pediatric cohorts of newly diagnosed patients were combined. Causes of death were classified as seizure related (including sudden unexpected death [SUDEP]), natural causes, nonnatural causes, and unknown. Of 2239 subjects followed up for >30 000 person-years, 79 died. Ten subjects with lethal neurometabolic conditions were ultimately excluded. The overall death rate (per 100 000 person-years) was 228; 743 in complicated epilepsy (with associated neurodisability or underlying brain condition) and 36 in uncomplicated epilepsy. Thirteen deaths were seizure-related (10 SUDEP, 3 other), accounting for 19% of all deaths. Seizure-related death rates were 43 overall, 122 for complicated epilepsy, and 14 for uncomplicated epilepsy. Death rates from other natural causes were 159, 561, and 9, respectively. Of 48 deaths from other natural causes, 37 were due to pneumonia or other respiratory complications. Most excess death in young people with epilepsy is not seizure-related. Mortality is significantly higher compared with the general population in children with complicated epilepsy but not uncomplicated epilepsy. The SUDEP rate was similar to or higher than sudden infant death syndrome rates. In uncomplicated epilepsy, sudden and seizure-related death rates were similar to or higher than rates for other common causes of death in young people (eg, accidents, suicides, homicides). Relating the risk of death in epilepsy to familiar risks may facilitate discussions of seizure-related mortality with patients and families.

  10. Efficacy of modest dose irradiation in combination with long-term endocrinal treatment for high-risk prostate cancer. A preliminary report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sasaki, Tomonari; Nakamura, Katsumasa; Shioyama, Yoshiyuki

    2004-01-01

    Although radiotherapy in combination with endocrinal manipulation has been identified as an effective treatment for patients with high-risk prostate cancer, the optimal dose for locoregional control of prostate cancer in combination with hormonal therapy has not yet been determined. The efficacy of modest doses of irradiation (60-62 Gy) combined with long-term endocrinal treatment for patients with high-risk prostate cancer (defined as a pretreatment prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level greater than 20 ng/ml or a Gleason's score of 8-10 or T3-T4 disease) was analyzed in 60 Japanese patients. The patients included in this study had received radical radiotherapy with long-term endocrinal manipulation in the period between 1993 and 2000. The median age of the patients was 70 years (range, 56-83). Neoadjuvant hormonal therapy with a median duration of 3.9 months was performed prior to radiotherapy, and hormonal therapy was continued until recurrence. A median dose of 61.4 Gy (range, 44-71.4) was delivered to the prostate. Pelvic node irradiation was performed in 49 patients (81.6%). After a median follow-up period of 28.5 months, the overall survival, cause-specific survival and biochemical relapse-free survival at 3 years were 94.4%, 96% and 89.8%, respectively. Local failure was observed in one patient, distant metastases were observed in three patients and a late toxic effect greater than Grade 2 was not observed in any patients. This study, though preliminary due to a short-term follow-up period, reveals the possibility that modest doses of irradiation combined with long-term endocrinal treatment could be an effective means of achieving excellent local control of high-risk prostate cancer. (author)

  11. Elevated resting heart rate is associated with greater risk of cardiovascular and all-cause mortality in current and former smokers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Magnus T; Marott, Jacob L; Jensen, Gorm B

    2010-01-01

    . Current and former smokers had, irrespective of tobacco consumption, greater relative risk of elevated RHR compared to never smokers. The relative risk of all-cause mortality per 10bpm increase in RHR was (95% CI): 1.06 (1.01-1.10) in never smokers, 1.11 (1.07-1.15) in former smokers, 1.13 (1......BACKGROUND: Elevated resting heart rate is associated with mortality in general populations. Smokers may be at particular risk. The association between resting heart rate (RHR), smoking status and cardiovascular and total mortality was investigated in a general population. METHODS: Prospective.......09-1.16) in moderate smokers, and 1.13 (1.10-1.16) in heavy smokers. There was no gender difference. The risk estimates for cardiovascular and all-cause mortality were essentially similar. In univariate analyses, the difference in survival between a RHR in the highest (>80bpm) vs lowest quartile (...

  12. Elevated resting heart rate is associated with greater risk of cardiovascular and all-cause mortality in current and former smokers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Magnus T; Marott, Jacob L; Jensen, Gorm B

    2010-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Elevated resting heart rate is associated with mortality in general populations. Smokers may be at particular risk. The association between resting heart rate (RHR), smoking status and cardiovascular and total mortality was investigated in a general population. METHODS: Prospective....... Current and former smokers had, irrespective of tobacco consumption, greater relative risk of elevated RHR compared to never smokers. The relative risk of all-cause mortality per 10bpm increase in RHR was (95% CI): 1.06 (1.01-1.10) in never smokers, 1.11 (1.07-1.15) in former smokers, 1.13 (1.......09-1.16) in moderate smokers, and 1.13 (1.10-1.16) in heavy smokers. There was no gender difference. The risk estimates for cardiovascular and all-cause mortality were essentially similar. In univariate analyses, the difference in survival between a RHR in the highest (>80bpm) vs lowest quartile (...

  13. A TWO-WAY ROAD: RATES OF HIV INFECTION AND BEHAVIORAL RISK FACTORS AMONG DEPORTED MEXICAN LABOR MIGRANTS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rangel, M. Gudelia; Martinez-Donate, Ana P.; Hovell, Melbourne; Sipan, Carol L.; Zellner, Jennifer A.; Gonzalez-Fagoaga, Eduardo; Kelley, Norma J.; Asadi-Gonzalez, Ahmed; Amuedo-Dorantes, Catalina; Magis-Rodriguez, Carlos

    2012-01-01

    A large number of Mexican migrants are deported to Mexico and released in the North Mexican border region every year. Despite their volume and high vulnerability, little is known about the level of HIV infection and related risk behaviors among this hard-to-reach population. We conducted a cross-sectional, probability survey with deported Mexican migrants in Tijuana, Mexico (N=693) and estimated levels of HIV infection and behavioral risk factors among this migrant flow. The sample and population estimated rates of HIV for deported males were 1.23% and 0.80%, respectively. No positive cases were found among the female sample. We found high lifetime rates of reported sexually transmitted infections (22.3%) and last 12-months rates of unprotected sex (63.0%), sex with multiple sexual partners (18.1%), casual partners (25.7%), and sex workers (8.6%), compared to U.S. and Mexico adults. HIV prevention, testing, and treatment programs for this large, vulnerable, and transnational population need to be implemented in both the U.S. and Mexico. PMID:22562390

  14. Assessing the Risk of Birth Defects Associated with Exposure to Fixed-Dose Combined Antituberculous Agents during Pregnancy in Rats

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. Awodele

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Due to the risks of disease progression and transmission to the newborn, treatment of tuberculosis is often pursued during pregnancy and fixed-dose combined antituberculous agents have been found to be beneficial. Unfortunately, there is paucity of data on the safety of the fixed-dose combined antituberculous drugs during pregnancy. This study intends to assess the teratogenic effect of fixed-dose combined antituberculous drugs on the organogenesis stage of fetal development and also investigate the possible roles of vitamin C in modulating the teratogenic effects of these agents on the fetus using animal model. Pregnant rats were divided into 3 groups with 12 animals per group: group 1 received distilled water (10 mL/kg orally; group 2 received 51.4 mg/kg/day of fixed-dose combined antituberculous agents orally; group 3 received 51.4 mg/kg/day of fixed-dose combined antituberculous agents plus vitamin C (10 mg/kg/day orally. Six rats in each group were randomly selected and sacrificed on day 20 by cervical dislocation prior to day 21 of gestation, and the foetuses were harvested through abdominal incision for physical examination. Blood samples were collected from the 1st filial rats of the remaining six animals for biochemical and hematological examination. The liver, kidney, heart, and brain of all the sacrificed animals were used for histopathological examination. There were significant (≤0.05 low birth weights of the foetuses of the animals that were treated with fixed-dose combined antituberculous agents. The haematological parameters also revealed a reduction in the platelets counts and neutrophiles at the first filial generation. Significant (≤0.05 elevations in the levels of aspartate aminotransferase (AST and alkaline phosphatase (ALP in the foetuses of the animals treated with fixed-dose combined antituberculous agents were also observed. However, the combination of vitamin C with fixed-dose combined antituberculous agents

  15. The Relationship between the Risk of a Change of the Interest Rate and the Age of Entrepreneurs among Slovak SMEs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sobeková Majková Monika

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Young entrepreneurs and start-up founders are considered to be a drivers of innovation which is an important element of knowledge economy and competitiveness of each country. But their early age could be perceived as a factor causing the increasing impact of the credit risk because young entrepreneurs usually have a short company history, weak capital power and a lack of the guarantees. The main objective of this paper is to bring scientific evidence that the age of the entrepreneur should be considered as a factor with the significant impact on one part of the credit risk of a company– the risk of a change of the interest rate. The research was carried out among 438 Slovak companies in 2016. Based on Pearson´s chi-square analysis of the results of our research, we bring statistical evidence that age has a significant impact on the ability of the company to protect the firm against the change of the interest rate. We also found out that there is dependence between the age of the owner and the opinion that SMEs in the other EU countries have better loan conditions, especially lower interest rates, than Slovak SMEs. Research findings indicate that young entrepreneurs have problems with obtaining capital and increasing interest rates and collaterals because of their higher risk profile. But effective state support of young and innovative companies through venture financing can lead to increasing global competitiveness of the Slovak Republic.

  16. Recurrent rates and risk factors associated with recurrent painful bullous keratopathy after primary phototherapeutic keratectomy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kasetsuwan N

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Ngamjit Kasetsuwan, Kanokorn Sakpisuttivanit, Usanee Reinprayoon, Vilavun Puangsricharern Department of Ophthalmology, Faculty of Medicine, Chulalongkorn University and King Chulalongkorn Memorial Hospital, Bangkok, Thailand Objective: To assess the recurrent rate, mean survival time, and risk factors associated with recurrent painful bullous keratopathy (BK after primary treatment with phototherapeutic keratectomy.Methods: Medical records from 72 patients (72 eyes who had phototherapeutic keratectomy for painful BK were evaluated. Data for sex, age, duration of BK, associated ocular and systemic diseases (hypertension, diabetes mellitus, ischemic heart disease, asthma, dyslipidemia, and rheumatoid arthritis, frequency and degree of pain (grade 1–3, visual acuity, corneal thickness, intraocular pressure, and laser setting were extracted and analyzed.Results: The mean age of the patients was 64.2±11.4 years. The mean preoperative duration of BK was 15.0±11.0 months. Most patients had pseudophakic BK (69.40%. Majority of the cases had grade 3 degree of pain (48.60%. Glaucoma and hypertension were markedly found among these patients (51.40% and 19.40%, respectively. Preoperative mean intraocular pressure and corneal thickness were 13.70±4.95 mmHg and 734.1±83.80 µm, respectively. The mean laser diameter and depth were 8.36±1.22 mm and 38.89±8.81 µm, respectively. Systemic disease was significantly associated with the risk for developing recurrent painful BK (P=0.022, hazard ratio [HR] 1.673, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.08–2.58. The overall recurrent rate was 51%. The average duration time of recurrent painful BK was 17.3±12.9 months (range 1–50 months. The median survival time before recurrence was 29.0±6.6 months.Conclusion: Systemic disease was found to be the only risk factor significantly associated with the development of recurrent painful BK. Low recurrent rate and long mean survival time showed that phototherapeutic

  17. Quantifying sources of bias in National Healthcare Safety Network laboratory-identified Clostridium difficile infection rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haley, Valerie B; DiRienzo, A Gregory; Lutterloh, Emily C; Stricof, Rachel L

    2014-01-01

    To assess the effect of multiple sources of bias on state- and hospital-specific National Healthcare Safety Network (NHSN) laboratory-identified Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) rates. Sensitivity analysis. A total of 124 New York hospitals in 2010. New York NHSN CDI events from audited hospitals were matched to New York hospital discharge billing records to obtain additional information on patient age, length of stay, and previous hospital discharges. "Corrected" hospital-onset (HO) CDI rates were calculated after (1) correcting inaccurate case reporting found during audits, (2) incorporating knowledge of laboratory results from outside hospitals, (3) excluding days when patients were not at risk from the denominator of the rates, and (4) adjusting for patient age. Data sets were simulated with each of these sources of bias reintroduced individually and combined. The simulated rates were compared with the corrected rates. Performance (ie, better, worse, or average compared with the state average) was categorized, and misclassification compared with the corrected data set was measured. Counting days patients were not at risk in the denominator reduced the state HO rate by 45% and resulted in 8% misclassification. Age adjustment and reporting errors also shifted rates (7% and 6% misclassification, respectively). Changing the NHSN protocol to require reporting of age-stratified patient-days and adjusting for patient-days at risk would improve comparability of rates across hospitals. Further research is needed to validate the risk-adjustment model before these data should be used as hospital performance measures.

  18. The ruin probability of a discrete time risk model under constant interest rate with heavy tails

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tang, Q.

    2004-01-01

    This paper investigates the ultimate ruin probability of a discrete time risk model with a positive constant interest rate. Under the assumption that the gross loss of the company within one year is subexponentially distributed, a simple asymptotic relation for the ruin probability is derived and

  19. River flood risk in Jakarta under scenarios of future change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Budiyono, Yus; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.; Tollenaar, Daniel; Ward, Philip J.

    2016-03-01

    Given the increasing impacts of flooding in Jakarta, methods for assessing current and future flood risk are required. In this paper, we use the Damagescanner-Jakarta risk model to project changes in future river flood risk under scenarios of climate change, land subsidence, and land use change. Damagescanner-Jakarta is a simple flood risk model that estimates flood risk in terms of annual expected damage, based on input maps of flood hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. We estimate baseline flood risk at USD 186 million p.a. Combining all future scenarios, we simulate a median increase in risk of +180 % by 2030. The single driver with the largest contribution to that increase is land subsidence (+126 %). We simulated the impacts of climate change by combining two scenarios of sea level rise with simulations of changes in 1-day extreme precipitation totals from five global climate models (GCMs) forced by the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The results are highly uncertain; the median change in risk due to climate change alone by 2030 is a decrease by -46 %, but we simulate an increase in risk under 12 of the 40 GCM-RCP-sea level rise combinations. Hence, we developed probabilistic risk scenarios to account for this uncertainty. If land use change by 2030 takes places according to the official Jakarta Spatial Plan 2030, risk could be reduced by 12 %. However, if land use change in the future continues at the same rate as the last 30 years, large increases in flood risk will take place. Finally, we discuss the relevance of the results for flood risk management in Jakarta.

  20. FRAC (failure rate analysis code): a computer program for analysis of variance of failure rates. An application user's guide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martz, H.F.; Beckman, R.J.; McInteer, C.R.

    1982-03-01

    Probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) require estimates of the failure rates of various components whose failure modes appear in the event and fault trees used to quantify accident sequences. Several reliability data bases have been designed for use in providing the necessary reliability data to be used in constructing these estimates. In the nuclear industry, the Nuclear Plant Reliability Data System (NPRDS) and the In-Plant Reliability Data System (IRPDS), among others, were designed for this purpose. An important characteristic of such data bases is the selection and identification of numerous factors used to classify each component that is reported and the subsequent failures of each component. However, the presence of such factors often complicates the analysis of reliability data in the sense that it is inappropriate to group (that is, pool) data for those combinations of factors that yield significantly different failure rate values. These types of data can be analyzed by analysis of variance. FRAC (Failure Rate Analysis Code) is a computer code that performs an analysis of variance of failure rates. In addition, FRAC provides failure rate estimates

  1. Pregnancy risk assessment monitoring system in Ireland: methods and response rates

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    O’Keeffe, Linda M.

    2014-06-01

    To describe response rates and characteristics associated with response to the Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System study in Ireland (PRAMS Ireland). Using hospital discharge records of live births at a large, urban, obstetric hospital, a sampling frame of approximately 2,400 mother-infant pairs were used to alternately sample 1,200 women. Mothers’ information including name, address, parity, age and infant characteristics such as sex and gestational age at delivery were extracted from records. Modes of contact included an invitation letter with option to opt out of the study, three mail surveys, a reminder letter and text message reminder for remaining non-respondents. Sixty-one per cent of women responded to the PRAMS Ireland survey over a 133 day response period. Women aged <30, single women, multiparous women and women with a preterm delivery were less likely to respond. Women participating in PRAMS Ireland were similar to the national birth profile in 2011 which had a mean age of 32, were 40 % primiparous, 33 % single or never married and had a 28 % caesarean section rate. Survey and protocol changes are required to increase response rates above recommended Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) thresholds of 65 % within the recommended 90 day data collection cycle. Additional efforts such as stratification and over-sampling are required to increase representativeness among hard to reach groups such as younger, single and multiparous women before expanding the project to an ongoing, national surveillance system in Ireland.

  2. Effect of Contract Compliance Rate to a Fourth-Generation Telehealth Program on the Risk of Hospitalization in Patients With Chronic Kidney Disease: Retrospective Cohort Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hung, Chi-Sheng; Lee, Jenkuang; Chen, Ying-Hsien; Huang, Ching-Chang; Wu, Vin-Cent; Wu, Hui-Wen; Chuang, Pao-Yu; Ho, Yi-Lwun

    2018-01-24

    Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is prevalent in Taiwan and it is associated with high all-cause mortality. We have shown in a previous paper that a fourth-generation telehealth program is associated with lower all-cause mortality compared to usual care with a hazard ratio of 0.866 (95% CI 0.837-0.896). This study aimed to evaluate the effect of renal function status on hospitalization among patients receiving this program and to evaluate the relationship between contract compliance rate to the program and risk of hospitalization in patients with CKD. We retrospectively analyzed 715 patients receiving the telehealth care program. Contract compliance rate was defined as the percentage of days covered by the telehealth service before hospitalization. Patients were stratified into three groups according to renal function status: (1) normal renal function, (2) CKD, or (3) end-stage renal disease (ESRD) and on maintenance dialysis. The outcome measurements were first cardiovascular and all-cause hospitalizations. The association between contract compliance rate, renal function status, and hospitalization risk was analyzed with a Cox proportional hazards model with time-dependent covariates. The median follow-up duration was 694 days (IQR 338-1163). Contract compliance rate had a triphasic relationship with cardiovascular and all-cause hospitalizations. Patients with low or very high contract compliance rates were associated with a higher risk of hospitalization. Patients with CKD or ESRD were also associated with a higher risk of hospitalization. Moreover, we observed a significant interaction between the effects of renal function status and contract compliance rate on the risk of hospitalization: patients with ESRD, who were on dialysis, had an increased risk of hospitalization at a lower contract compliance rate, compared with patients with normal renal function or CKD. Our study showed that there was a triphasic relationship between contract compliance rate to the

  3. Enhancing local action planning through quantitative flood risk analysis: a case study in Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castillo-Rodríguez, Jesica Tamara; Escuder-Bueno, Ignacio; Perales-Momparler, Sara; Ramón Porta-Sancho, Juan

    2016-07-01

    This article presents a method to incorporate and promote quantitative risk analysis to support local action planning against flooding. The proposed approach aims to provide a framework for local flood risk analysis, combining hazard mapping with vulnerability data to quantify risk in terms of expected annual affected population, potential injuries, number of fatalities, and economic damages. Flood risk is estimated combining GIS data of loads, system response, and consequences and using event tree modelling for risk calculation. The study area is the city of Oliva, located on the eastern coast of Spain. Results from risk modelling have been used to inform local action planning and to assess the benefits of structural and non-structural risk reduction measures. Results show the potential impact on risk reduction of flood defences and improved warning communication schemes through local action planning: societal flood risk (in terms of annual expected affected population) would be reduced up to 51 % by combining both structural and non-structural measures. In addition, the effect of seasonal population variability is analysed (annual expected affected population ranges from 82 to 107 %, compared with the current situation, depending on occupancy rates in hotels and campsites). Results highlight the need for robust and standardized methods for urban flood risk analysis replicability at regional and national scale.

  4. Are HPV vaccination services accessible to high-risk communities? A spatial analysis of HPV-associated cancer and Chlamydia rates and safety-net clinics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsui, Jennifer; Rodriguez, Hector P; Gee, Gilbert C; Escobedo, Loraine A; Kominski, Gerald F; Bastani, Roshan

    2013-12-01

    While HPV vaccines can greatly benefit adolescents and young women from high-risk areas, little is known about whether safety-net immunization services are geographically accessible to communities at greatest risk for HPV-associated diseases. We explore the spatial relationship between areas with high HPV risk and proximity to safety-net clinics from an ecologic perspective. We used cancer registry data and Chlamydia surveillance data to identify neighborhoods within Los Angeles County with high risk for HPV-associated cancers. We examined proximity to safety-net clinics among neighborhoods with the highest risk. Proximity was measured as the shortest distance between each neighborhood center and the nearest clinic and having a clinic within 3 miles of each neighborhood center. The average 5-year non-age-adjusted rates were 1,940 cases per 100,000 for Chlamydia and 60 per 100,000 for HPV-associated cancers. A large majority, 349 of 386 neighborhoods with high HPV-associated cancer rates and 532 of 537 neighborhoods with high Chlamydia rates, had a clinic within 3 miles of the neighborhood center. Clinics were more likely to be located within close proximity to high-risk neighborhoods in the inner city. High-risk neighborhoods outside of this urban core area were less likely to be near accessible clinics. The majority of high-risk neighborhoods were geographically near safety-net clinics with HPV vaccination services. Due to low rates of vaccination, these findings suggest that while services are geographically accessible, additional efforts are needed to improve uptake. Programs aimed to increase awareness about the vaccine and to link underserved groups to vaccination services are warranted.

  5. Flood Risk, Flood Mitigation, and Location Choice: Evaluating the National Flood Insurance Program's Community Rating System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Qin; Davlasheridze, Meri

    2016-06-01

    Climate change is expected to worsen the negative effects of natural disasters like floods. The negative impacts, however, can be mitigated by individuals' adjustments through migration and relocation behaviors. Previous literature has identified flood risk as one significant driver in relocation decisions, but no prior study examines the effect of the National Flood Insurance Program's voluntary program-the Community Rating System (CRS)-on residential location choice. This article fills this gap and tests the hypothesis that flood risk and the CRS-creditable flood control activities affect residential location choices. We employ a two-stage sorting model to empirically estimate the effects. In the first stage, individuals' risk perception and preference heterogeneity for the CRS activities are considered, while mean effects of flood risk and the CRS activities are estimated in the second stage. We then estimate heterogeneous marginal willingness to pay (WTP) for the CRS activities by category. Results show that age, ethnicity and race, educational attainment, and prior exposure to risk explain risk perception. We find significant values for the CRS-creditable mitigation activities, which provides empirical evidence for the benefits associated with the program. The marginal WTP for an additional credit point earned for public information activities, including hazard disclosure, is found to be the highest. Results also suggest that water amenities dominate flood risk. Thus, high amenity values may increase exposure to flood risk, and flood mitigation projects should be strategized in coastal regions accordingly. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  6. Exchange rate policy under sovereign default risk

    OpenAIRE

    Schabert, Andreas

    2011-01-01

    We examine monetary policy options for a small open economy where sovereign default might occur due to intertemporal insolvency. Under interest rate policy and floating exchange rates the equilibrium is indetermined. Under a fixed exchange rate the equilibrium is uniquely determined and independent of sovereign default.

  7. Prospective audit of a one-centre combined nuchal translucency and triple test programme for the detection of trisomy 21.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Babbur, Vijayalakshmi; Lees, Christoph C; Goodburn, Sandra F; Morris, Nigel; Breeze, Andrew C G; Hackett, Gerald A

    2005-06-01

    To determine detection and false-positive rates for trisomy 21 using two-stage combined nuchal translucency (NT) and triple testing, whilst disclosing abnormal nuchal measurements at the scan. A prospective audit in a UK women's hospital, of 3188 women with singleton pregnancies, requesting screening for trisomy 21. Median age was 37 years (range 19-46). Women were offered NT screening at 11 to 14 weeks. Those with NT > or =3 mm were offered chorionic villus sampling. Those declining CVS, and those with NT risk of trisomy 21 > or = 1:250, based on age, NT, and triple test results were offered amniocentesis. Using a 3-mm NT 'cut-off' identified 16/25 cases of trisomy 21 (64%; 95% CI 38.8, 78.9). Of 2725 women who had a combined nuchal plus triple test assessment, 79 (2.6%) had a > or = 1:250 term risk of trisomy 21. Forty (1.3%) had amniocentesis identifying 6/9 remaining cases (67%:95% CI:27.9, 92.5). Overall, the detection rate was 88% (95% CI:68.8, 97.5) for a 4.8% FPR. For the screened population, to achieve an 88% detection rate using the triple test alone, the predicted FPR would be 20%. Conversely, for an FPR of 4.8% using the triple test alone, the detection rate would be only 60%. In a high-risk group, the combination of NT with triple test offers detection of trisomy 21 at least equivalent to either test, while allowing disclosure of an abnormal NT at the scan and reducing the FPR. Importantly, the FPR is less than 5%, considerably lower than expected for triple test alone for this population.

  8. Risk premium shocks, monetary policy and exchange rate pass-through in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland

    OpenAIRE

    Vonnák, Balázs

    2010-01-01

    This paper investigates the role of monetary policy in a small open economy, where exchange rate shocks are important. VAR models are estimated for the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland. Contemporaneous and sign restrictions are imposed in order to identify the effect of monetary policy and risk premium shocks. Estimates from the same model for Canada, Sweden and the UK are used as benchmark for developed economies with low inflation. The results suggest that the typical size a of risk premi...

  9. A multivariable assessment quantifying effects of cohort-level factors associated with combined mortality and culling risk in cohorts of U.S. commercial feedlot cattle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Babcock, A H; Cernicchiaro, N; White, B J; Dubnicka, S R; Thomson, D U; Ives, S E; Scott, H M; Milliken, G A; Renter, D G

    2013-01-01

    Economic losses due to cattle mortality and culling have a substantial impact on the feedlot industry. Since criteria for culling may vary and may affect measures of cumulative mortality within cattle cohorts, it is important to assess both mortality and culling when evaluating cattle losses over time and among feedlots. To date, there are no published multivariable assessments of factors associated with combined mortality and culling risk. Our objective was to evaluate combined mortality and culling losses in feedlot cattle cohorts and quantify effects of commonly measured cohort-level risk factors (weight at feedlot arrival, gender, and month of feedlot arrival) using data routinely collected by commercial feedlots. We used retrospective data representing 8,904,965 animals in 54,416 cohorts from 16 U.S. feedlots from 2000 to 2007. The sum of mortality and culling counts for each cohort (given the number of cattle at risk) was used to generate the outcome of interest, the cumulative incidence of combined mortality and culling. Associations between this outcome variable and cohort-level risk factors were evaluated using a mixed effects multivariable negative binomial regression model with random effects for feedlot, year, month and week of arrival. Mean arrival weight of the cohort, gender, and arrival month and a three-way interaction (and corresponding two-way interactions) among arrival weight, gender and month were significantly (Prisk decreased, but effects of arrival weight were modified both by the gender of the cohort and the month of feedlot arrival. There was a seasonal pattern in combined mortality and culling risk for light and middle-weight male and female cohorts, with a significantly (Prisk for cattle arriving at the feedlot in spring and summer (March-September) than in cattle arriving during fall, and winter months (November-February). Our results quantified effects of covariate patterns that have been heretofore difficult to fully evaluate in

  10. Energy expenditure estimation in beta-blocker-medicated cardiac patients by combining heart rate and body movement data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kraal, Jos J; Sartor, Francesco; Papini, Gabriele; Stut, Wim; Peek, Niels; Kemps, Hareld Mc; Bonomi, Alberto G

    2016-11-01

    Accurate assessment of energy expenditure provides an opportunity to monitor physical activity during cardiac rehabilitation. However, the available assessment methods, based on the combination of heart rate (HR) and body movement data, are not applicable for patients using beta-blocker medication. Therefore, we developed an energy expenditure prediction model for beta-blocker-medicated cardiac rehabilitation patients. Sixteen male cardiac rehabilitation patients (age: 55.8 ± 7.3 years, weight: 93.1 ± 11.8 kg) underwent a physical activity protocol with 11 low- to moderate-intensity common daily life activities. Energy expenditure was assessed using a portable indirect calorimeter. HR and body movement data were recorded during the protocol using unobtrusive wearable devices. In addition, patients underwent a symptom-limited exercise test and resting metabolic rate assessment. Energy expenditure estimation models were developed using multivariate regression analyses based on HR and body movement data and/or patient characteristics. In addition, a HR-flex model was developed. The model combining HR and body movement data and patient characteristics showed the highest correlation and lowest error (r 2  = 0.84, root mean squared error = 0.834 kcal/minute) with total energy expenditure. The method based on individual calibration data (HR-flex) showed lower accuracy (i 2  = 0.83, root mean squared error = 0.992 kcal/minute). Our results show that combining HR and body movement data improves the accuracy of energy expenditure prediction models in cardiac patients, similar to methods that have been developed for healthy subjects. The proposed methodology does not require individual calibration and is based on the data that are available in clinical practice. © The European Society of Cardiology 2016.

  11. Combined electrical-alkali pretreatment to increase the anaerobic hydrolysis rate of waste activated sludge during anaerobic digestion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhen, Guangyin; Lu, Xueqin; Li, Yu-You; Zhao, Youcai

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Combined electrical-alkali pretreatment for improving sludge anaerobic digestion was proposed. • Combined process enhanced the cell lysis, biopolymers releases, and thus sludge disintegration. • Increased solubilization of sludge increased the anaerobic hydrolysis rate. • Increased solubilization does not always induce an improved anaerobic digestion efficiency. - Abstract: Pretreatment can be used prior to anaerobic digestion to improve the efficiency of waste activated sludge (WAS) digestion. In this study, electrolysis and a commonly used pretreatment method of alkaline (NaOH) solubilization were integrated as a pretreatment method for promoting WAS anaerobic digestion. Pretreatment effectiveness of combined process were investigated in terms of disintegration degree (DD SCOD ), suspended solids (TSS and VSS) removals, the releases of protein (PN) and polysaccharide (PS), and subsequent anaerobic digestion as well as dewaterability after digestion. Electrolysis was able to crack the microbial cells trapped in sludge gels and release the biopolymers (PN and PS) due to the cooperation of alkaline solubilization, enhancing the sludge floc disintegration/solubilization, which was confirmed by scanning electron microscopy (SEM) analysis. Biochemical methane potential (BMP) assays showed the highest methane yield was achieved with 5 V plus pH 9.2 pretreatment with up to 20.3% improvement over the non-pretreated sludge after 42 days of mesophilic operation. In contrast, no discernible improvements on anaerobic degradability were observed for the rest of pretreated sludges, probably due to the overmuch leakage of refractory soluble organics, partial chemical mineralization of solubilized compounds and sodium inhibition. The statistical analysis further indicated that increased solubilization induced by electrical-alkali pretreatment increased the first-order anaerobic hydrolysis rate (k hyd ), but had no, or very slight enhancement on WAS ultimate

  12. Combined effect of educational status and cardiovascular risk factors on the incidence of coronary heart disease and stroke in European cohorts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Veronesi, Giovanni; Tunstall-Pedoe, Hugh; Ferrario, Marco M

    2017-01-01

    Background The combined effect of social status and risk factors on the absolute risk of cardiovascular disease has been insufficiently investigated, but results provide guidance on who could benefit most through prevention. Methods We followed 77,918 cardiovascular disease-free individuals aged 35......-74 years at baseline, from 38 cohorts covering Nordic and Baltic countries, the UK and Central Europe, for a median of 12 years. Using Fine-Gray models in a competing-risks framework we estimated the effect of the interaction of education with smoking, blood pressure and body weight on the cumulative risk...... genders. Less educated men and women with a cluster of two or more risk factors had an added cardiovascular disease risk of 3.6% (+0.1%, +7.0%) and of 2.6% (-0.5%, +5.6%), respectively, compared with their more educated counterparts. Conclusions Socially disadvantaged subjects have more to gain from...

  13. Incident rate and risk factors for tuberculosis among patients with type 2 diabetes: retrospective cohort study in Shanghai, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiu, Hanbo; Shi, Yan; Li, Yanyun; Shen, Xin; Li, Rui; Yang, Qundi; Pan, Qichao; Yan, Fei

    2017-07-01

    To examine the incident rate of tuberculosis (TB) and its associates among adults with type 2 diabetes in Shanghai, China. We conducted a retrospective cohort study among 170 399 patients with type 2 diabetes aged ≥18 years who were registered in Shanghai community-based diabetes management system between 2004 and 2009. Their TB status was tracked until 31 December 2014. Cox regression was performed to identify the risk factors for TB. We documented 785 new TB cases during 654 977 person-years of follow-up. The incident rate of TB was 224.20 (206.69, 243.16) per 100 000 person-years among men and 51.34 (44.75, 58.92) per 100 000 person-years among women. A 1-unit increase of BMI was associated with a risk reduction in 16% (P < 0.01) for men and a 14% (P < 0.01) reduction for women. TB cases were more likely to be insulin-dependent [men: hazard ratio = 2.13 (1.29, 3.53); women: 3.28 (1.28, 8.39)] and had a poor glucose level initially [men: 1.21 (1.15, 1.27); women: 1.27 (1.18, 1.37)]. The risk factor for TB specific to men was a young age at diagnosis of diabetes, and the protective factor specific to women was actively engaging in physical activity. TB incident rate among patients with type 2 diabetes was substantially higher among men than among women. The risk of TB was reversely associated with initial BMI. The severity of poor glucose control among patients with diabetes was also linearly associated with the risk of TB. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  14. Live birth rates in the different combinations of the Bologna criteria poor ovarian responders: a validation study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    La Marca, Antonio; Grisendi, Valentina; Giulini, Simone; Sighinolfi, Giovanna; Tirelli, Alessandra; Argento, Cindy; Re, Claudia; Tagliasacchi, Daniela; Marsella, Tiziana; Sunkara, Sesh Kamal

    2015-06-01

    to compare the baseline characteristics and chance of live birth in the different categories of poor responders identified by the combinations of the Bologna criteria and establish whether these groups comprise a homogenous population. database containing clinical and laboratory information on IVF treatment cycles carried out at the Mother-Infant Department of the University Hospital of Modena between year 2007 and 2011 was analysed. This data was collected prospectively and recorded in the registered database of the fertility centre. Eight hundred and thirty women fulfilled the inclusion/ exclusion criteria of the study and 210 women fulfilled the Bologna criteria definition for poor ovarian response (POR). Five categories of poor responders were identified by different combinations of the Bologna criteria. There were no significant differences in female age, AFC, AMH, cycle cancellation rate and number of retrieved oocytes between the five groups. The live birth rate ranged between 5.5 and 7.4 % and was not statistically different in the five different categories of women defined as poor responders according to the Bologna criteria. The study demonstrates that the different groups of poor responders based on the Bologna criteria have similar IVF outcomes. This information validates the Bologna criteria definition as women having a uniform poor prognosis and also demonstrates that the Bologna criteria poor responders in the various subgroups represent a homogenous population with similar pre-clinical and clinical outcomes.

  15. Hostility Ratings by Parents at Risk for Child Abuse: Impact of Chronic and Temporary Schema Activation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farc, Maria-Magdalena; Crouch, Julie L.; Skowronski, John J.; Milner, Joel S.

    2008-01-01

    Objective: Two studies examined whether accessibility of hostility-related schema influenced ratings of ambiguous child pictures. Based on the social information processing model of child physical abuse (CPA), it was expected that CPA risk status would serve as a proxy for chronic accessibility of hostile schema, while priming procedures were used…

  16. The impact of macroeconomic variables on the evolution of the credit risk rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luminița Gabriela Istrate

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The dynamics of the real economy is a major driver of the evolution of arrears at the level of the pool of loans granted to non-financial companies, completed by the financial pressure induced by the monetary conditions. Lending allows on the one hand providing resources for companies that need financing for investment projects, on the other hand, it supports the fund holders to place resources for obtaining profit. The role of the lending policy in the activity of commercial banks is very important, as it may influence both the cost of credits and the loan portfolio quality in the future. The purpose of this research is to find the macroeconomic variables that significantly influence credit risk and to develop a statistical model for predicting the doubtful and non-performing loans rate. Thus, it is envisaged the research of mechanisms by which the dynamics of the real economy and the money market conditions influence the evolution of the credit risk in different business sectors.

  17. 75 FR 9257 - SBA Lender Risk Rating System

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-03-01

    ... Liquidation Rate; 3. Gross Delinquency Rate; 4. Gross Past-Due Rate; 5. Six (6) Month Net Flow Indicator; 6.... The statistical analysis performed showed that incorporating the Portfolio Size/Age component improved...) Month Delinquency Rate; 3. Gross Delinquency Rate; 4. Gross Past-Due Rate; 5. Average Small Business...

  18. A remote sensing-assisted risk rating study to predict oak decline and recovery in the Missouri Ozark Highlands, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cuizhen Wang; Hong S. He; John M. Kabrick

    2008-01-01

    Forests in the Ozark Highlands underwent widespread oak decline affected by severe droughts in 1999-2000. In this study, the differential normalized difference water index was calculated to detect crown dieback. A multi-factor risk rating system was built to map risk levels of stands. As a quick response to drought, decline in 2000 mostly occurred in stands at low to...

  19. Success rate and risk factors of failure of the induced membrane technique in children: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aurégan, Jean-Charles; Bégué, Thierry; Rigoulot, Guillaume; Glorion, Christophe; Pannier, Stéphanie

    2016-12-01

    The induced membrane technique was designed by Masquelet et al. to address segmental bone defects of critical size in adults. It has been used after bone defects of traumatic, infectious and tumoral origin with satisfactory results. Recently, it has been used in children but, after an initial enthusiasm, several cases of failure have been reported. The purpose of this study was to assess the success rate and the risk factors of failure of the induced membrane for children. We conducted a systematic review of all the studies reporting the results of the induced membrane technique to address bone defects of critical size in children. Our primary outcome was the success rate of the technique defined as a bone union before any iterative surgery. Our secondary outcomes were the complications and the risk factors of failure. We searched Medline via Pubmed, EMBASE and the Cochrane Library. Twelve studies, including 69 patients, met the inclusion criteria. There were 41 boys and 28 girls. Mean age at surgery was 10 years. Mean size of resection was 12.38 cm and the mean time between the two stages was 5.86 months. Mean rate of bone union after the two stages of the induced membrane technique was 58% (40/69) but this rate increased to 87% after revision surgeries (60/69). Main complications were non-unions (19/69), lysis of the graft (6/69) and fractures of the bone graft (6/69). Only 1/69 deep infection was reported. Other non specific complications were regularly reported such limb length discrepancies, joint stiffness and protruding wires. Risk factor of failure that could be suspected comprised the resection of a malignant tumour, a bone defect located at the femur, a wide resection, a long time between the two stages, an unstable osteosynthesis and a bone graft associating autograft to other graft materials. The induced membrane technique is suitable for bone defects of critical size in children. It is a reliable technique with no need of micro vascular surgery

  20. Effects of parathyroid hormone alone or in combination with antiresorptive therapy on bone mineral density and fracture risk--a meta-analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vestergaard, P; Jørgensen, Niklas R; Mosekilde, L

    2007-01-01

    AIM: The effects of parathyroid hormone (PTH) alone or in combination with antiresorptive therapy on changes in bone mineral density (BMD) and fracture risk were studied. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Randomised placebo controlled trials were retrieved from the PubMed, Web of Science or Embase databases......, nausea and discomfort at the injection sites. Only limited data are currently available on fracture risk reduction with PTH plus antiresorptive therapies. CONCLUSION: Although the number of studies on non-vertebral fractures is limited, our pooled analysis revealed that PTH alone or in combination...... are necessary. No studies comparing PTH, PTH plus antiresorptive drugs and antiresorptive drug versus placebo in a factorial design are available; consequently, we were unable to draw any conclusions on the superiority of PTH plus antiresorptive drug versus antiresorptive drug or PTH alone with respect to BMD...