WorldWideScience

Sample records for risk rate ratio

  1. Using non-performing loan ratios as default rates in the estimation of credit losses and macroeconomic credit risk stress testing: A case from Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guray Kucukkocaoglu

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available In this study, inspired by the Credit Portfolio View approach, we intend to develop an econometric credit risk model to estimate credit loss distributions of Turkish Banking System under baseline and stress macro scenarios, by substituting default rates with non-performing loan (NPL ratios. Since customer number based historical default rates are not available for the whole Turkish banking system’s credit portfolio, we used NPL ratios as dependent variable instead of default rates, a common practice for many countries where historical default rates are not available. Although, there are many problems in using NPL ratios as default rates such as underestimating portfolio losses as a result of totally non-homogeneous total credit portfolios and transferring non-performing loans to asset management companies from banks’ balance sheets, our aim is to underline and limit some ignored problems using accounting based NPL ratios as default rates in macroeconomic credit risk modeling. Developed models confirm the strong statistical relationship between systematic component of credit risk and macroeconomic variables in Turkey. Stress test results also are compatible with the past experiences

  2. True gender ratios and stereotype rating norms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alan eGarnham

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available We present a study comparing, in English, perceived distributions of men and women in 422 named occupations with actual real world distributions. The first set of data was obtained from previous a large-scale norming study, whereas the second set was mostly drawn from UK governmental sources. In total, real world ratios for 290 occupations were obtained for our perceive vs. real world comparison, of which 205 were deemed to be unproblematic. The means for the two sources were similar and the correlation between them was high, suggesting that people are generally accurate at judging real gender ratios, though there were some notable exceptions. Beside this correlation, some interesting patterns emerged from the two sources, suggesting some response strategies when people complete norming studies. We discuss these patterns in terms of the way real world data might complement norming studies in determining gender stereotypicality.

  3. Inequalities in mortality: study rates, not standardised mortality ratios [Letter

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bonneux, L.G.A.

    2010-01-01

    In their study from 1921 to 2007 Thomas and colleagues conclude on the basis of standardised mortality ratios that inequalities in mortality continue to rise and are now almost as high as in the 1930s. Relative ratios are, however, misleading when absolute rates change strongly. I calculated the

  4. Calculating stocking rates for game ranches: substitution ratios for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Calculating stocking rates for game ranches: substitution ratios for use in the Mopani ... Reports on a study conducted to quantify the overlap in ungulate resource-use on a game ranch, and to demonstrate how ... AJOL African Journals Online.

  5. The effect of financial ratios on systematic risk index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Faez

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the relationship between financial ratios and indicator of systemic risk in the Tehran Stock Exchange. The study selects 73 manufacturing companies of the Tehran Stock Exchange market over the period 2003-2010. The study first calculates the independent variables in the form of financial ratios and then the ratios affecting the systematic risk index are extracted using entropy method. The output of this stage is the introduction of five influential financial indicators as the independent variables of the study. Using t-test and Pearson correlation coefficient the rate of independent variables effect on the systematic risk index is evaluated and finally, using stepwise regression method, the effect of independent variables on the dependent variable is examined. According to results of our survey, the correlation coefficient of such indices as “the ratio of stock price to the profit of each share”, “Current ratio”, “each share profit ratio” and “the stockholders rights return ratio” have respectively the highest correlation with the systematic risk index.

  6. Are elderly dependency ratios associated with general population suicide rates?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shah, Ajit

    2011-05-01

    The elderly population size is increasing worldwide due to falling birth rates and increasing life expectancy. It has been hypothesized that as the elderly dependency ratio (the ratio of those over the age of 65 years to those under 65) increases, there will be fewer younger people available to care for older people and this, in turn, will increase the burden on younger carers with increased levels of psychiatric morbidity leading to an increase in general population suicide rates. A cross-national study examining the relationship between elderly dependency ratios and general population suicide rates was conducted using data from the World Health Organization and the United Nations websites. The main findings were of a significant and independent positive correlation between elderly dependency ratios and general population suicide rates in both genders. The contribution of cross-national differences in psychiatric morbidity in younger carers on general population suicide rates requires further study. The prevalence of psychiatric morbidity in younger carers of older people should be examined by: (i) cross-national studies using standardized measures of psychiatric morbidity that are education-free, culture-fair and language-fair; and (ii) within-country longitudinal studies with changing elderly dependency ratios over time.

  7. Management of interest rate risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Šabović Šerif

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Interest rate risk is one of the biggest and most dangerous risks that a bank is exposed to. When a change of interest rates occurs, the incomes of a bank based on credits and securities endure significant changes. Banks resources also endure some changes. The change of interest rates changes the value of the assets and liabilities of the bank and it's net and investment worth . The change of interest rates also affects bank's balance sheet, income sheet statement and bank's share capital.

  8. Risk, ambiguity and sovereign rating

    OpenAIRE

    Di Caro, Paolo

    2014-01-01

    Decisions of investing in sovereign assets involve both risk and ambiguity. Ambiguity arises from unknown elements characterizing the value of a generic sovereign. In presence of ambiguity, ambiguity-averse investors are prone to pay for obtaining summary information such as ratings which reduces ambiguity. Ambiguity-neutral and ambiguity-averse investors, then, make decisions on the basis of different informative sources. By presenting a simple model of sovereign rating under ambiguity, thre...

  9. Choice with frequently changing food rates and food ratios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baum, William M; Davison, Michael

    2014-03-01

    In studies of operant choice, when one schedule of a concurrent pair is varied while the other is held constant, the constancy of the constant schedule may exert discriminative control over performance. In our earlier experiments, schedules varied reciprocally across components within sessions, so that while food ratio varied food rate remained constant. In the present experiment, we held one variable-interval (VI) schedule constant while varying the concurrent VI schedule within sessions. We studied five conditions, each with a different constant left VI schedule. On the right key, seven different VI schedules were presented in seven different unsignaled components. We analyzed performances at several different time scales. At the longest time scale, across conditions, behavior ratios varied with food ratios as would be expected from the generalized matching law. At shorter time scales, effects due to holding the left VI constant became more and more apparent, the shorter the time scale. In choice relations across components, preference for the left key leveled off as the right key became leaner. Interfood choice approximated strict matching for the varied right key, whereas interfood choice hardly varied at all for the constant left key. At the shortest time scale, visit patterns differed for the left and right keys. Much evidence indicated the development of a fix-and-sample pattern. In sum, the procedural difference made a large difference to performance, except for choice at the longest time scale and the fix-and-sample pattern at the shortest time scale. © Society for the Experimental Analysis of Behavior.

  10. Standardized binomial models for risk or prevalence ratios and differences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, David B; Kinlaw, Alan C; MacLehose, Richard F; Cole, Stephen R

    2015-10-01

    Epidemiologists often analyse binary outcomes in cohort and cross-sectional studies using multivariable logistic regression models, yielding estimates of adjusted odds ratios. It is widely known that the odds ratio closely approximates the risk or prevalence ratio when the outcome is rare, and it does not do so when the outcome is common. Consequently, investigators may decide to directly estimate the risk or prevalence ratio using a log binomial regression model. We describe the use of a marginal structural binomial regression model to estimate standardized risk or prevalence ratios and differences. We illustrate the proposed approach using data from a cohort study of coronary heart disease status in Evans County, Georgia, USA. The approach reduces problems with model convergence typical of log binomial regression by shifting all explanatory variables except the exposures of primary interest from the linear predictor of the outcome regression model to a model for the standardization weights. The approach also facilitates evaluation of departures from additivity in the joint effects of two exposures. Epidemiologists should consider reporting standardized risk or prevalence ratios and differences in cohort and cross-sectional studies. These are readily-obtained using the SAS, Stata and R statistical software packages. The proposed approach estimates the exposure effect in the total population. © The Author 2015; all rights reserved. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.

  11. 76 FR 16570 - Interest Rate Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-03-24

    ... NATIONAL CREDIT UNION ADMINISTRATION 12 CFR Part 741 RIN 3133-AD66 Interest Rate Risk AGENCY... regulations to require Federally insured credit unions to have a written policy addressing interest rate risk... Risk Management for Credit Unions with Large Positions in Fixed Rate Mortgages; 06-CU-16 Inter-Agency...

  12. EFFECT OF RATIO OF SURFACE AREA ON THE CORROSION RATE

    OpenAIRE

    Dody Prayitno; M. Irsyad

    2018-01-01

    Aluminum and steel are used to be a construction for a building outdoor panel. Aluminum and steel are connected by bolt and nut. An atmosphere due to a corrosion of the aluminum. The corrosion possibly to cause the hole diameter of bolt and nut to become larger. Thus the bolt and nut can not enough strong to hold the panel. The panel may collapse. The aim of the research is first to answer a question where does the corrosion starts. The second is to know the effect of ratio surface area of st...

  13. Risk ratios for use in establishing dose limits for occupational exposure to radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Metcalf, P.E.; Winkler, B.C.

    1980-01-01

    Dose limits for occupational exposure to radiation may be established by comparing the associated mortality risk with apparently accepted levels of industrial mortality risk due to conventional hazards. Average levels of industrial mortality risk rates are frequently quoted and used in such comparisons. However, within particular occupations or industries certain groups of workers will be exposed to higher levels of risk than the average, again an apparently accepted situation. A study has been made of the ratios of maximum to average industrial mortality risk currently experienced in some South African industries. Such a ratio may be used to assess the acceptability of maximum individual-to-average exposures in particular groups of exposed individuals. (author)

  14. The Determinants of Country Risk Ratings

    OpenAIRE

    Jean-Claude Cosset; Jean Roy

    1991-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to replicate Euromoney's and Institutional Investor's country risk ratings on the basis of economic and political variables. The evidence reveals that country risk ratings respond to some of the variables suggested by the theory. In particular, both the level of per capita income and propensity to invest affect positively the rating of a country. In addition, high-ranking countries are less indebted than low-ranking countries. It also appears that the ability of t...

  15. Currency Risk Management under Floating Rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicu Duret

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available As for the research into this subject, we find, therefore, that one of the most important indicators that quantify the international competitiveness is the exchange rate, together with other fundamental macroeconomic variables such as the size of the potential GDP, the equilibrium real exchange rate, gives a certain insight into the functioning of the fundamental macroeconomic mechanisms and their regulation. Commercial and financial operations imply relationships between partners from different currency countries or areas that involve conversion operations, of replacement of a currency to another. Exchange rate fluctuations of one currency create currency risk, to the extent that it is used to carry out international transactions. These operations are subjected to currency risk as exchange rates change frequently from one period to another and, on the other hand, speculations in the forex market influence the exchange rate by the interventions of those who perform them.

  16. Remarks on Interest Rate Risk Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena-Violeta DRAGOI

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Bank interest and interest rate risk management is a contemporary subject and for socio-economic environment of Romania cause serious consequences in the level of economic development. The purpose of this research is to highlight the main indicator that measures the total cost of a loan, namely the annual percentage rate (APR, because if we refer to an interest rate lower, at first glance that loan seems more advantageous, but at a closer look, taking into account the commissions charged by the bank, we see that the loan is more expensive compared to another, whose interest rate is higher.

  17. Reducing sequence risk using trend following and the CAPE ratio

    OpenAIRE

    Clare, A.; Thomas, S.; Smith, P. N.; Seaton, J.

    2017-01-01

    The risk of experiencing bad investment outcomes at the wrong time, or sequence risk, is a poorly understood, but crucial aspect of the risk faced by investors, in particular those in the decumulation phase of their savings journey, typically over the period of retirement financed by a defined contributions pension scheme. Using US equity return data from 1872-2014 we show how this risk can be significantly reduced by applying trend-following investment strategies. We also demonstrate that kn...

  18. Risk aversion vs. the Omega ratio : Consistency results

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Balder, Sven; Schweizer, Nikolaus

    This paper clarifies when the Omega ratio and related performance measures are consistent with second order stochastic dominance and when they are not. To avoid consistency problems, the threshold parameter in the ratio should be chosen as the expected return of some benchmark – as is commonly done

  19. On the spillover of exchange rate risk into default risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Božović Miloš

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to reduce the exchange-rate risk, banks in emerging markets are typically denominating their loans in foreign currencies. However, in the event of a substantial depreciation of the local currency, the payment ability of a foreign-currency borrower may be reduced significantly, exposing the lender to additional default risk. This paper analyses how the exchange-rate risk of foreign currency loans spills over into default risk. We show that in an economy where foreign currency loans are a dominant source of financing economic activity, depreciation of the local currency establishes a negative feedback mechanism that leads to higher default probabilities, reduced credit supply, and reduced growth. This finding has some important implications that may be of special interest for regulators and market participants in emerging economies.

  20. Effect of stress ratio and frequency on fatigue crack growth rate of ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Effect of stress ratio and frequency on the fatigue crack propagation of 2618 aluminium alloy–silicon carbide composite were investigated at ambient temperature. With the first set of specimens, the fatigue crack growth rates were studied at three frequencies of 1 Hz, 5 Hz and 10 Hz at a stress ratio of 0.1 whereas the effects ...

  1. 13 CFR 120.1015 - Risk Rating System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 13 Business Credit and Assistance 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk Rating System. 120.1015 Section 120.1015 Business Credit and Assistance SMALL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION BUSINESS LOANS Risk-Based Lender Oversight Supervision § 120.1015 Risk Rating System. (a) Risk Rating. SBA may assign a Risk Rating...

  2. VaR: Exchange Rate Risk and Jump Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fen-Ying Chen

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Incorporating the Poisson jumps and exchange rate risk, this paper provides an analytical VaR to manage market risk of international portfolios over the subprime mortgage crisis. There are some properties in the model. First, different from past studies in portfolios valued only in one currency, this model considers portfolios not only with jumps but also with exchange rate risk, that is vital for investors in highly integrated global financial markets. Second, in general, the analytical VaR solution is more accurate than historical simulations in terms of backtesting and Christoffersen's independence test (1998 for small portfolios and large portfolios. In other words, the proposed model is reliable not only for a portfolio on specific stocks but also for a large portfolio. Third, the model can be regarded as the extension of that of Kupiec (1999 and Chen and Liao (2009.

  3. The impact of sex ratio and economic status on local birth rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chipman, A; Morrison, E

    2013-04-23

    Human mating and reproductive behaviour can vary depending on various mechanisms, including the local sex ratio. Previous research shows that as sex ratios become female-biased, women from economically deprived areas are less likely to delay reproductive opportunities to wait for a high-investing mate but instead begin their reproductive careers sooner. Here, we show that the local sex ratio also has an impact on female fertility schedules. At young ages, a female-biased ratio is associated with higher birth rates in the poorest areas, whereas the opposite is true for the richest areas. At older ages, a female-biased ratio is associated with higher birth rates in the richest, but not the poorest areas. These patterns suggest that female-female competition encourages poorer women to adopt a fast life-history strategy and give birth early, and richer women to adopt a slow life-history strategy and delay reproduction.

  4. Predicting prey population dynamics from kill rate, predation rate and predator-prey ratios in three wolf-ungulate systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vucetich, John A; Hebblewhite, Mark; Smith, Douglas W; Peterson, Rolf O

    2011-11-01

    1. Predation rate (PR) and kill rate are both fundamental statistics for understanding predation. However, relatively little is known about how these statistics relate to one another and how they relate to prey population dynamics. We assess these relationships across three systems where wolf-prey dynamics have been observed for 41 years (Isle Royale), 19 years (Banff) and 12 years (Yellowstone). 2. To provide context for this empirical assessment, we developed theoretical predictions of the relationship between kill rate and PR under a broad range of predator-prey models including predator-dependent, ratio-dependent and Lotka-Volterra dynamics. 3. The theoretical predictions indicate that kill rate can be related to PR in a variety of diverse ways (e.g. positive, negative, unrelated) that depend on the nature of predator-prey dynamics (e.g. structure of the functional response). These simulations also suggested that the ratio of predator-to-prey is a good predictor of prey growth rate. That result motivated us to assess the empirical relationship between the ratio and prey growth rate for each of the three study sites. 4. The empirical relationships indicate that PR is not well predicted by kill rate, but is better predicted by the ratio of predator-to-prey. Kill rate is also a poor predictor of prey growth rate. However, PR and ratio of predator-to-prey each explained significant portions of variation in prey growth rate for two of the three study sites. 5. Our analyses offer two general insights. First, Isle Royale, Banff and Yellowstone are similar insomuch as they all include wolves preying on large ungulates. However, they also differ in species diversity of predator and prey communities, exploitation by humans and the role of dispersal. Even with the benefit of our analysis, it remains difficult to judge whether to be more impressed by the similarities or differences. This difficulty nicely illustrates a fundamental property of ecological

  5. Deprivation index and dependency ratio are key determinants of emergency medical admission rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conway, Richard; Byrne, Declan; O'Riordan, Deirdre; Cournane, Seán; Coveney, Seamus; Silke, Bernard

    2015-11-01

    Patients from deprived backgrounds have a higher in-patient mortality following an emergency medical admission; there has been debate as to the extent to which deprivation and population structure influences hospital admission rate. All emergency medical admissions to an Irish hospital over a 12-year period (2002-2013) categorized by quintile of Deprivation Index and Dependency Ratio (proportion of population Dependency Ratio was an independent predictor of the admission rate with adjusted predicted rates of Q1 20.8 (95%CI 20.5 to 21.1), Q2 19.2 (95%CI 19.0 to 19.4), Q3 27.6 (95%CI 27.3 to 27.9), Q4 43.9 (95%CI 43.5 to 44.4) and Q5 34.4 (95%CI 34.1 to 34.7). A high concurrent Deprivation Index and Dependency Ratio were associated with very high admission rates. Deprivation Index and population Dependency Ratio are key determinants of the rate of emergency medical admissions. Copyright © 2015 European Federation of Internal Medicine. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Tumour alpha/beta ratios and dose-rate selection in brachytherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duchesne, G.M.

    2003-01-01

    Traditionally brachytherapy employed low dose rate (LDR) techniques. Recent adoption of high dose rate (HDR) applications, addressing radiation protection concerns, has sparked debate over possible reductions in therapeutic ratio. The radiobiological characteristics of two contrasting examples, prostate cancer and cervical cancer, are examined. Both in-vitro and clinical observations of prostate cancer suggest a low α/β ratio. Labelling indices are below 2.5%, translating into long potential doubling times (Tpot ) of 16 to 61 days or more. Clinical PSA doubling times are in the order of years. Analysis of clinical endpoints in prostate cancer treated with either LDR or HDR techniques indicates that its α/β ratio may lie between 1 - 4 Gy, similar to slowly proliferating late reacting tissues. As such, therapeutic gain may arise from the use of hypofractionated HDR treatments, exploiting the sensitivity to large fraction sizes, effectively escalating dose. The slow proliferative rate also gives credence to the use of LDR, although several tumour doublings may occur during the effective treatment time, and analysis of the clinical data using a low α/β ratio suggests that LDR doses are only equivalent to 70 Gy with conventional fractionation. Cervical carcinoma is a rapidly proliferating tumour with Tpot values of 3-6 days. LDR implants were delivered over relatively short treatment times, negating repopulation effects, and the 'hyperfractionation' effect of LDR was suited to the high α/β ratio. HDR, although also preventing significant repopulation, has the potential to decrease the therapeutic ratio if low α/β , late-reacting tissues are not protected. Clinical data however show improved outcomes and reduced morbidity with HDR through reduced doses to normal tissues. Choosing the optimal dose rate in brachytherapy depends on tumour behaviour and achievable accuracy. HDR offers some advantages even for high α/β ratio tumours, and may be the technique of

  7. Assessment of chloroethene degradation rates based on ratios of daughter/parent compounds in groundwater plumes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Höhener, Patrick

    2014-05-01

    Chlorinated solvent spills at industrial and urban sites create groundwater plumes where tetrachloro- and trichloroethene may degrade to their daughter compounds, dichloroethenes, vinyl chloride and ethane. The assessment of degradation and natural attenuation at such sites may be based on the analysis and inverse modelling of concentration data, on the calculation of mass fluxes in transsects, and/or on the analysis of stable isotope ratios in the ethenes. Relatively few work has investigated the possibility of using ratio of concentrations for gaining information on degradation rates. The use of ratios bears the advantage that dilution of a single sample with contaminant-free water does not matter. It will be shown that molar ratios of daughter to parent compounds measured along a plume streamline are a rapid and robust mean of determining whether degradation rates increase or decrease along the degradation chain, and allow furthermore a quantitation of the relative magnitude of degradation rates compared to the rate of the parent compound. Furthermore, ratios of concentration will become constant in zones where degradation is absent, and this allows to sketching the extension of actively degrading zones. The assessment is possible for pure sources and also for mixed sources. A quantification method is proposed in order to estimate first-order degradation rates in zones of constant degradation activity. This quantification method includes corrections that are needed due to longitudinal and transversal dispersivity. The method was tested on a number of real field sites from literature. At the majority of these sites, the first-order degradation rates were decreasing along the degradation chain from tetrachloroethene to vinyl chloride, meaning that the latter was often reaching important concentrations. This is bad news for site owners due to the increased toxicity of vinyl chloride compared to its parent compounds.

  8. Sex ratio at birth and mortality rates are negatively related in humans.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Madhukar Shivajirao Dama

    Full Text Available Evolutionary theory posits that resource availability and parental investment ability could signal offspring sex selection, in order to maximize reproductive returns. Non-human studies have provided evidence for this phenomenon, and maternal condition around the time of conception has been identified as most important factor that influence offspring sex selection. However, studies on humans have reported inconsistent results, mostly due to use of disparate measures as indicators of maternal condition. In the present study, the cross-cultural differences in human natal sex ratio were analyzed with respect to indirect measures of condition namely, life expectancy and mortality rate. Multiple regression modeling suggested that mortality rates have distinct predictive power independent of cross-cultural differences in fertility, wealth and latitude that were earlier shown to predict sex ratio at birth. These findings suggest that sex ratio variation in humans may relate to differences in parental and environmental conditions.

  9. Temporal patterns in capture rate and sex ratio of forest bats in Arkansas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roger W. Perry; S. Andrew Carter; Ronald E. Thill

    2010-01-01

    We quantified changes in capture rates and sex ratios from May to Sept. for eight species of bats, derived from 8 y of extensive mist netting in forests of the Ouachita Mountains, Arkansas. Our primary goal was to determine patterns of relative abundance for each species of bat captured over forest streams and to determine if these patterns were similar to patterns of...

  10. Case fatality ratio and mortality rate trends of community-onset Staphylococcus aureus bacteraemia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tom, S; Galbraith, J C; Valiquette, L

    2014-01-01

    Lethal outcomes can be expressed as a case fatality ratio (CFR) or as a mortality rate per 100 000 population per year (MR). Population surveillance for community-onset methicillin-sensitive (MSSA) and methicillin-resistant (MRSA) Staphylococcus aureus bacteraemia was conducted in Canada, Austral...

  11. Do exchange rates follow random walks? A variance ratio test of the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The random-walk hypothesis in foreign-exchange rates market is one of the most researched areas, particularly in developed economies. However, emerging markets in sub-Saharan Africa have received little attention in this regard. This study applies Lo and MacKinlay's (1988) conventional variance ratio test and Wright's ...

  12. Effect of different ratios of cow manure and corn straw on the mixed anaerobic fermentation rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zongshan JIANG

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available In order to study the effect of the different ratios on the anaerobic fermentation rate is investigated, and the rate-limiting factors are preliminarily determined, at mesophilic (38±1℃ condition, with anaerobic granular sludge as inoculums, different ratios of cow manure and corn straw are used as substrate for mixed anaerobic fermentation. By measuring daily biogas production, the concentrations of CH4 and CO2 in the marsh gas, TC, the concentration of VFAs and pH value, The results show that under the mixture ratio of 2∶1, the hydrolysis rate constants, cumulative biogas yield and biodegradability CH4 reach their high limits, which are 0.043 7 d-1, 271.93 mL/g and 71.59%, respectively. Moreover, it is found that the concentration of acetic acid is proportional to the amount of cow manure at the beginning (the first day of mixed fermentation, and the concentration of propionicacid is proportional to the amount of corn straw in medium fermentation stage (the fifth day. In addition, rate-limiting step of biogas production is related to the ratio of cow manure and corn in fermentation material. With the increasing of corn straw proportion, on the 1st day, it tends to hydrolysis acidogenesis; from the 2th day to 15th day, it tends to hydrogen-production acetogenisis; and from the 16th day to 30th day, it is hydrolysis acidogenesis. The paper focuses on the relationship between the ratio of cow manure and corn straw and the rate-limiting step for biogas production, which could provide a theoretical and experimental support for improving the efficiency of biogas production in mixed fermentation.

  13. A rating for the risk; Ein Rating fuers Risiko

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Faltermeier, Daniel [Meteocontrol GmbH, Augsburg (Germany). Technische Due Diligence PV

    2013-07-01

    The assessment of the quality and risks of the photovoltaics project plays an important role in the investment decision. Especially for very large projects, an extensive risk assessment of yield losses and technical tests are increasingly demanded by independent experts. A new method enables the evaluation of solar energy systems.

  14. Influence of ceramic dental crown coating substrate thickness ratio on strain energy release rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khasnulhadi, K.; Daud, R.; Mat, F.; Noor, S. N. F. M.; Basaruddin, K. S.; Sulaiman, M. H.

    2017-10-01

    This paper presents the analysis of coating substrate thickness ratio effect on the crown coating fracture behaviour. The bi-layer material is examined under four point bending with pre-crack at the bottom of the core material by using finite element. Three different coating thickness of core/substrate was tested which is 1:1, 1:2 and 2:1. The fracture parameters are analysed based on bilayer and homogenous elastic interaction. The result shows that the ratio thickness of core/veneer provided a significant effect on energy release rate.

  15. Shuttle bit rate synchronizer. [signal to noise ratios and error analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huey, D. C.; Fultz, G. L.

    1974-01-01

    A shuttle bit rate synchronizer brassboard unit was designed, fabricated, and tested, which meets or exceeds the contractual specifications. The bit rate synchronizer operates at signal-to-noise ratios (in a bit rate bandwidth) down to -5 dB while exhibiting less than 0.6 dB bit error rate degradation. The mean acquisition time was measured to be less than 2 seconds. The synchronizer is designed around a digital data transition tracking loop whose phase and data detectors are integrate-and-dump filters matched to the Manchester encoded bits specified. It meets the reliability (no adjustments or tweaking) and versatility (multiple bit rates) of the shuttle S-band communication system through an implementation which is all digital after the initial stage of analog AGC and A/D conversion.

  16. Effect of lift-to-drag ratio in pilot rating of the HL-20 landing task

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, E. B.; Rivers, Robert A.; Bailey, Melvin L.

    1993-01-01

    A man-in-the-loop simulation study of the handling qualities of the HL-20 lifting-body vehicle was made in a fixed-base simulation cockpit at NASA Langley Research Center. The purpose of the study was to identify and substantiate opportunities for improving the original design of the vehicle from a handling qualities and landing performance perspective. Using preliminary wind-tunnel data, a subsonic aerodynamic model of the HL-20 was developed. This model was adequate to simulate the last 75-90 s of the approach and landing. A simple flight-control system was designed and implemented. Using this aerodynamic model as a baseline, visual approaches and landings were made at several vehicle lift-to-drag ratios. Pilots rated the handling characteristics of each configuration using a conventional numerical pilot-rating scale. Results from the study showed a high degree of correlation between the lift-to-drag ratio and pilot rating. Level 1 pilot ratings were obtained when the L/D ratio was approximately 3.8 or higher.

  17. Decay rate ratios of Υ(5S)→B anti B reactions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hwang, Dae Sung; Son, Hyungsuk

    2010-01-01

    We calculate the decay rate ratios for OZI allowed decays of Υ(5S) to two B mesons by using the decay amplitudes which incorporate the wave function of the Υ(5S) state. We obtain the result that the branching ratio of the Υ(5S) decay to B s * anti B s * is much larger than the branching ratio to B s anti B s * or anti B s B s * , in good agreement with the recent experimental results of CLEO and BELLE. This agreement with the experimental results is made possible since the nodes of the Υ(5S) radial wave function induce the nodes of the decay amplitude. We find that the results for the Υ(5S) decays to B u (*) anti B u (*) or B d (*) anti B d (*) pairs are sensitive to the parameter values used for the potential between heavy quarks. (orig.)

  18. Hedging endowment assurance products under interest rate and mortality risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chen, A.; Mahayni, A.

    2007-01-01

    This paper analyzes how model misspecification associated with both interest rate and mortality risk influences hedging decisions of insurance companies. For this purpose, diverse risk management strategies which are riskminimizing when model risk is ignored come into consideration. The

  19. Nitrogen removal in permeable woodchips filters affected by hydraulic loading rate and woodchips ratio

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bruun, Jacob Druedahl; Kjærgaard, Charlotte; Hoffmann, Carl Christian

    2016-01-01

    response of mixed reactive media (woodchips-Seashells and woodchips-Filtralite mixtures) at two woodchips ratios (WR) to changes in the hydraulic loading rate (HLR). The tests implied continuous loading of aerated NO3-N spiked artificial drainage water and tritium (3H2O) breakthrough experiments. Flow...... normalized nitrate reduction rates were 0.35-3.97 g N m-3 L-1, corresponding to N- removal efficiencies of 5 to 74% depending on HLR and filter mixtures. At high HLR oxic conditions prevailed, thus N removal was restricted to the immobile domain, controlled by diffusion. At lower HLR, progressively lower...

  20. Extreme mass ratio inspiral rates: dependence on the massive black hole mass

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hopman, Clovis

    2009-01-01

    We study the rate at which stars spiral into a massive black hole (MBH) due to the emission of gravitational waves (GWs), as a function of the mass M . of the MBH. In the context of our model, it is shown analytically that the rate approximately depends on the MBH mass as M -1/4 . . Numerical simulations confirm this result, and show that for all MBH masses, the event rate is highest for stellar black holes, followed by white dwarfs, and lowest for neutron stars. The Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) is expected to see hundreds of these extreme mass ratio inspirals per year. Since the event rate derived here formally diverges as M . → 0, the model presented here cannot hold for MBHs of masses that are too low, and we discuss what the limitations of the model are.

  1. A study on the optimal hydraulic loading rate and plant ratios in recirculation aquaponic system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Endut, Azizah; Jusoh, A; Ali, N; Wan Nik, W B; Hassan, A

    2010-03-01

    The growths of the African catfish (Clarias gariepinus) and water spinach (Ipomoea aquatica) were evaluated in recirculation aquaponic system (RAS). Fish production performance, plant growth and nutrient removal were measured and their dependence on hydraulic loading rate (HLR) was assessed. Fish production did not differ significantly between hydraulic loading rates. In contrast to the fish production, the water spinach yield was significantly higher in the lower hydraulic loading rate. Fish production, plant growth and percentage nutrient removal were highest at hydraulic loading rate of 1.28 m/day. The ratio of fish to plant production has been calculated to balance nutrient generation from fish with nutrient removal by plants and the optimum ratio was 15-42 gram of fish feed/m(2) of plant growing area. Each unit in RAS was evaluated in terms of oxygen demand. Using specified feeding regime, mass balance equations were applied to quantify the waste discharges from rearing tanks and treatment units. The waste discharged was found to be strongly dependent on hydraulic loading rate. 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. 12 CFR 615.5135 - Management of interest rate risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Management of interest rate risk. 615.5135... of interest rate risk. The board of directors of each Farm Credit Bank, bank for cooperatives, and agricultural credit bank shall develop and implement an interest rate risk management program as set forth in...

  3. Waist-to-height ratio as index of cardiometabolic risk among the doctors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miliva Mozaffor

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to see the cardiometabolic risk among doctors using waist-to-height ratio index as tool. Cardiometabolic risk is an umbrella term that includes all the risk factors of diabetes and cardiovascular disease. The study was conducted among 195 doctors. According to waist-to-height ratio index 167 (85.6% doctors had cardiometabolic risk. Waist-to-height ratio index was found good (area under the curve >0.5, sensitivity 88.1%, specificity 23.2%, positive predictive value 53.9%, and negative predictive value 66.7% for their predictive value of cardiometabolic risk. Age grouping was done and found that no age group was free from cardiometabolic risk.

  4. Risk of solid cancer in low dose-rate radiation epidemiological studies and the dose-rate effectiveness factor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shore, Roy; Walsh, Linda; Azizova, Tamara; Rühm, Werner

    2017-10-01

    Estimated radiation risks used for radiation protection purposes have been based primarily on the Life Span Study (LSS) of atomic bomb survivors who received brief exposures at high dose rates, many with high doses. Information is needed regarding radiation risks from low dose-rate (LDR) exposures to low linear-energy-transfer (low-LET) radiation. We conducted a meta-analysis of LDR epidemiologic studies that provide dose-response estimates of total solid cancer risk in adulthood in comparison to corresponding LSS risks, in order to estimate a dose rate effectiveness factor (DREF). We identified 22 LDR studies with dose-response risk estimates for solid cancer after minimizing information overlap. For each study, a parallel risk estimate was derived from the LSS risk model using matching values for sex, mean ages at first exposure and attained age, targeted cancer types, and accounting for type of dosimetric assessment. For each LDR study, a ratio of the excess relative risk per Gy (ERR Gy -1 ) to the matching LSS ERR risk estimate (LDR/LSS) was calculated, and a meta-analysis of the risk ratios was conducted. The reciprocal of the resultant risk ratio provided an estimate of the DREF. The meta-analysis showed a LDR/LSS risk ratio of 0.36 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.14, 0.57) for the 19 studies of solid cancer mortality and 0.33 (95% CI 0.13, 0.54) when three cohorts with only incidence data also were added, implying a DREF with values around 3, but statistically compatible with 2. However, the analyses were highly dominated by the Mayak worker study. When the Mayak study was excluded the LDR/LSS risk ratios increased: 1.12 (95% CI 0.40, 1.84) for mortality and 0.54 (95% CI 0.09, 0.99) for mortality + incidence, implying a lower DREF in the range of 1-2. Meta-analyses that included only cohorts in which the mean dose was LDR data provide direct evidence regarding risk from exposures at low dose rates as an important complement to the LSS risk estimates used

  5. Influence of kidney function on risk of supratherapeutic international normalized ratio-related hemorrhage in warfarin users: a prospective cohort study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Background: Anticoagulation management is difficult in chronic kidney disease, with frequent supratherapeutic international normalized ratios (INRs >/= 4) increasing hemorrhagic risk. We evaluated whether the interaction of INR and lower estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) increases hemorrha...

  6. Metabolic Risk Susceptibility in Men Is Partially Related to Adiponectin/Leptin Ratio

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gloria Lena Vega

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. High adiponectin/leptin ratio may be protective from metabolic risks imparted by high triglyceride, low HDL, and insulin resistance. Methods. This cross-sectional study examines plasma adipokine levels in 428 adult men who were subgrouped according to low (<6.5 μg/mLand high (≥6.5 μg/mLadiponectin levels or a low or high ratio of adiponectin/leptin. Results. Men with high adiponectin/leptin ratio had lower plasma triglyceride and higher HDL cholesterol than those with low ratio. Similarly, those with high adiponectin/leptin ratio had lower TG/HDL cholesterol ratio and HOMA2-IR than those with low ratio. In contrast, levels of adiponectin or the ratio of adiponectin/leptin did not associate with systolic blood pressure. But the ratio of adiponectin/leptin decreased progressively with the increase in the number of risk factors for metabolic syndrome. Conclusion. Adipokine levels may reflect adipose tissue triglyceride storage capacity and insulin sensitivity. Leptin is an index of fat mass, and adiponectin is a biomarker of triglyceride metabolism and insulin sensitivity. Men with high adiponectin/leptin ratios have better triglyceride profile and insulin sensitivity than men with a low ratio regardless of waist girth.

  7. The independence of irradiation creep in austenitic alloys of displacement rate and helium to dpa ratio

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garner, F.A.; Toloczko, M.B. [Pacific Northwest National Lab., Richland, WA (United States); Grossbeck, M.L. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States)

    1997-04-01

    The majority of high fluence data on the void swelling and irradiation creep of austenitic steels were generated at relatively high displacement rates and relatively low helium/dpa levels that are not characteristic of the conditions anticipated in ITER and other anticipated fusion environments. After reanalyzing the available data, this paper shows that irradiation creep is not directly sensitive to either the helium/dpa ratio or the displacement rate, other than through their possible influence on void swelling, since one component of the irradiation creep rate varies with no correlation to the instantaneous swelling rate. Until recently, however, the non-swelling-related creep component was also thought to exhibit its own strong dependence on displacement rate, increasing at lower fluxes. This perception originally arose from the work of Lewthwaite and Mosedale at temperatures in the 270-350{degrees}C range. More recently this perception was thought to extend to higher irradiation temperatures. It now appears, however, that this interpretation is incorrect, and in fact the steady-state value of the non-swelling component of irradiation creep is actually insensitive to displacement rate. The perceived flux dependence appears to arise from a failure to properly interpret the impact of the transient regime of irradiation creep.

  8. Male sexual strategies modify ratings of female models with specific waist-to-hip ratios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brase, Gary L; Walker, Gary

    2004-06-01

    Female waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) has generally been an important general predictor of ratings of physical attractiveness and related characteristics. Individual differences in ratings do exist, however, and may be related to differences in the reproductive tactics of the male raters such as pursuit of short-term or long-term relationships and adjustments based on perceptions of one's own quality as a mate. Forty males, categorized according to sociosexual orientation and physical qualities (WHR, Body Mass Index, and self-rated desirability), rated female models on both attractiveness and likelihood they would approach them. Sociosexually restricted males were less likely to approach females rated as most attractive (with 0.68-0.72 WHR), as compared with unrestricted males. Males with lower scores in terms of physical qualities gave ratings indicating more favorable evaluations of female models with lower WHR. The results indicate that attractiveness and willingness to approach are overlapping but distinguishable constructs, both of which are influenced by variations in characteristics of the raters.

  9. Cardiovascular risk prediction: the old has given way to the new but at what risk-benefit ratio?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yeboah J

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Joseph Yeboah Heart and Vascular Center of Excellence, Wake Forest University School of Medicine, Winston-Salem, NC, USA Abstract: The ultimate goal of cardiovascular risk prediction is to identify individuals in the population to whom the application or administration of current proven lifestyle modifications and medicinal therapies will result in reduction in cardiovascular disease events and minimal adverse effects (net benefit to society. The use of cardiovascular risk prediction tools dates back to 1976 when the Framingham coronary heart disease risk score was published. Since then a lot of novel risk markers have been identified and other cardiovascular risk prediction tools have been developed to either improve or replace the Framingham Risk Score (FRS. In 2013, the new atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk estimator was published by the American College of Cardiology and the American Heart Association to replace the FRS for cardiovascular risk prediction. It is too soon to know the performance of the new atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk estimator. The risk-benefit ratio for preventive therapy (lifestyle modifications, statin +/− aspirin based on cardiovascular disease risk assessed using the FRS is unknown but it was assumed to be a net benefit. Should we also assume the risk-benefit ratio for the new atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk estimator is also a net benefit? Keywords: risk prediction, prevention, cardiovascular disease

  10. Modeling whole-tree carbon assimilation rate using observed transpiration rates and needle sugar carbon isotope ratios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Jia; Moore, David J P; Riveros-Iregui, Diego A; Burns, Sean P; Monson, Russell K

    2010-03-01

    *Understanding controls over plant-atmosphere CO(2) exchange is important for quantifying carbon budgets across a range of spatial and temporal scales. In this study, we used a simple approach to estimate whole-tree CO(2) assimilation rate (A(Tree)) in a subalpine forest ecosystem. *We analysed the carbon isotope ratio (delta(13)C) of extracted needle sugars and combined it with the daytime leaf-to-air vapor pressure deficit to estimate tree water-use efficiency (WUE). The estimated WUE was then combined with observations of tree transpiration rate (E) using sap flow techniques to estimate A(Tree). Estimates of A(Tree) for the three dominant tree species in the forest were combined with species distribution and tree size to estimate and gross primary productivity (GPP) using an ecosystem process model. *A sensitivity analysis showed that estimates of A(Tree) were more sensitive to dynamics in E than delta(13)C. At the ecosystem scale, the abundance of lodgepole pine trees influenced seasonal dynamics in GPP considerably more than Engelmann spruce and subalpine fir because of its greater sensitivity of E to seasonal climate variation. *The results provide the framework for a nondestructive method for estimating whole-tree carbon assimilation rate and ecosystem GPP over daily-to weekly time scales.

  11. Exchange rate policy under sovereign default risk

    OpenAIRE

    Schabert, Andreas

    2011-01-01

    We examine monetary policy options for a small open economy where sovereign default might occur due to intertemporal insolvency. Under interest rate policy and floating exchange rates the equilibrium is indetermined. Under a fixed exchange rate the equilibrium is uniquely determined and independent of sovereign default.

  12. With power comes responsibility: motorcycle engine power and power-to-weight ratio in relation to accident risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mattsson, Markus; Summala, Heikki

    2010-02-01

    Current European legislation allows the EU member states to restrict the maximum power output of motorcycles to 74 kW even though evidence supporting the limit is scarce and has produced mixed results-perhaps because motorcycle performance has been measured by engine displacement, not engine power, in most of the previous studies. This study investigates the relationship of motorcycle engine power and power-to-weight ratio to risk of fatal and nonfatal crashes in Finland. The fatality rate (number of fatal accidents/number of registered motorbikes) for riders of different ages riding bikes belonging to different power and power-to-weight ratio classes was examined using a comprehensive in-depth database. Data on nonfatal accidents were acquired from a Web questionnaire (N = 2708), which also served as a basis for estimating riders' annual mileage. Mileage data allowed the calculation of accident risk per kilometer ridden for bikes differing in power and power-to-weight ratio. The fatality risk per number of registered motorcycles and per kilometer ridden increases both with power and power-to-weight ratio, independently of rider's age. No relationship between performance and risk of a less severe crash was found. The pre-accident speed of the most powerful bikes was 20 km/h or more over the speed limit in a large proportion of the fatal accidents (odds ratio = 4.8 for > 75 kW motorbikes; odds ratio = 6.2 for > 0.3 kW/kg motorbikes). The risk of being involved in a fatal crash is higher among the riders of powerful motorcycles. However, it is not clear whether the results are related to the riding habits of the riders that choose the most powerful bikes available or whether the high risk is due to the properties of the bikes themselves. Therefore, further research is needed before considering legal limits on motorcycle performance.

  13. Exchange rate risks and their impact upon the energy market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abed Al-Zabidi

    2007-04-01

    Full Text Available The expansion of international business in Slovakia brought not only the opening of markets and expansion of enterprise possibilities but also an increase in the competition and new risks. One of such risks is also the exchange rate risk. The business that realizes a financial transaction exceeding borders of the state or derives his buying or selling prices in Slovak crowns from the foreign currency, is subjected to the exchange rate risks. The exchange rate risks are caused by volatility of exchange courses of Slovak crowns related to foreign currencies. The progress of exchange rates can considerably influence a real result of a transaction negatively; therefore it is important for enterprises to identify possible risks resulting from changes in exchange rates, so they could react accordingly.The proposed article is aimed at the explanation of basic techniques of minimizing exchange rate risks with the use of financial tools available on the financial market.

  14. The Juvenile Addiction Risk Rating: Development and Initial Psychometrics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powell, Michael; Newgent, Rebecca A.

    2016-01-01

    This article describes the development and psychometrics of the Juvenile Addiction Risk Rating. The Juvenile Addiction Risk Rating is a brief screening of addiction potential based on 10 risk factors predictive of youth alcohol and drug-related problems that assists examiners in more accurate treatment planning when self-report information is…

  15. Corporate interest rate risk management with derivatives in Australia: empirical results

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luiz Augusto Ferreira Carneiro

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Financial and insurance theories explain that large widely-held corporations manage corporate risks if doing so is costective to reduce frictional costs such as taxes, agency costs and financial distress costs. A large number of previous empirical studies, most in the U.S., have tested the hypotheses underlying corporate risk management with financial derivative instruments. In order to quantify corporate hedge demand, most previous studies have used the ratio of principal notional amount of derivatives to company size, although they recognize that company size is not an appropriate proxy for financial risk. This paper analyzes the interest-rate-risk hedge demand by Australian companies, measured through the ratio of principal notional amount of interest rate derivatives to interest-rate-riskbearing liabilities. Modern panel data methods are used, with two panel data sets from 1998 to 2003 (1102 and 465 observations, respectively. Detailed information about interest-rate-risk exposures was available after manual data collection from financial annual reports, which was only possible due to specific reporting requirements in Australian accounting standards. Regarding the analysis of the extent of hedge, our measurement of interest-rate-risk exposures generates some significant results di erent from those found in previous studies. For example, this study shows that total leverage (total debt ratio is not significantly important to interest-rate-risk hedge demand and that, instead, this demand is related to the specific risk exposure in the interest bearing part of the firms liabilities. This study finds significant relations of interest-rate-risk hedge to company size, floating-interest-rate debt ratio, annual log returns, and company industry type (utilities and non-banking financial institutions.

  16. Heart rate asymmetry follows the inspiration/expiration ratio in healthy volunteers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klintworth, Anne; Ajtay, Zénó; Paljunite, Alina; Szabados, Sándor; Hejjel, László

    2012-01-01

    Heart rate asymmetry (HRA) quantifies the uneven distribution of points above and below the identity-line in a Poincaré plot of RR-intervals. The authors investigated if HRA could be influenced by the inspiration/expiration ratio. Healthy volunteers (n = 18) were studied in the supine position at 4.5 s metronome breathing. ECG and breathing signals were recorded for 360 s at each breathing pattern: inspiration controlled, inspiration/expiration controlled (1:2, 1:1, 2:1 ratio), inspiration controlled again. Time domain, frequency domain and Poincaré plot heart rate variability (HRV) analysis with Porta's and Guzik's indices were performed on 300 s tachograms. There were no statistically significant differences in time domain, frequency domain and standard Poincaré plot parameters during the various breathing patterns, whereas Porta's and Guzik's indices significantly rose at 1:1 and 2:1 compared to physiological 1:2 breathing. There were no significant differences in the HRA parameters between the first and the last runs. In our population the inspiration/expiration ratio significantly influenced HRA, but not standard HRV parameters. Positive correlation of Guzik's and Porta's index reflects reciprocal changes of the number of points and their dispersion in the accelerating and decelerating sets of RR-intervals. HRA-analysis can be a promising method for investigating cardiovascular regulation/health particularly with further spreading of wearable monitors. (paper)

  17. Interest rate risk of life insurers: Evidence from accounting data

    OpenAIRE

    Möhlmann, Axel

    2017-01-01

    Life insurers are exposed to interest rate risk, and their liability side is typically more sensitive to interest rate changes than their asset side. This paper develops an accounting-based measure of interest rate sensitivity. My approach uses the coexistence of historical cost and market value accounting, which permits the observation of valuations for different discount rates. Using microdata, I show that German life insurers have a significant exposure to interest rate risk. However, ther...

  18. Hydrogenotrophic denitrification in a packed bed reactor: effects of hydrogen-to-water flow rate ratio.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, J W; Lee, K H; Park, K Y; Maeng, S K

    2010-06-01

    Hydrogen dissolution and hydrogenotrophic denitrification performance were investigated in a lab-scale packed bed reactor (PBR) by varying the hydrogen flow rate and hydraulic retention time (HRT). The denitrification performance was enhanced by increasing the hydrogen flow rate and HRT as a result of high dissolved hydrogen concentration (0.39mg/L) and utilization efficiencies (79%). In this study, the hydrogen-to-water flow rate ratio (Q(g)/Q(w)) was found to be a new operating factor representing the two parameters of hydrogen flow rate and HRT. Hydrogen dissolution and denitrification efficiency were nonlinearly and linearly correlated with the Q(g)/Q(w), respectively. Based on its excellent linear correlation with denitrification efficiency, Q(g)/Q(w) should be greater than 2.3 to meet the WHO's guideline of nitrate nitrogen for drinking water. This study demonstrates that Q(g)/Q(w) is a simple and robust factor to optimize hydrogen-sparged bioreactors for hydrogenotrophic denitrification. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Risk Preferences and Predictions about Others: No Association with 2D:4D Ratio

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katharina Lima de Miranda

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Prenatal androgen exposure affects the brain development of the fetus which may facilitate certain behaviors and decision patterns in the later life. The ratio between the lengths of second and the fourth fingers (2D:4D is a negative biomarker of the ratio between prenatal androgen and estrogen exposure and men typically have lower ratios than women. In line with the typical findings suggesting that women are more risk averse than men, several studies have also shown negative relationships between 2D:4D and risk taking although the evidence is not conclusive. Previous studies have also reported that both men and women believe women are more risk averse than men. In the current study, we re-test the relationship between 2D:4D and risk preferences in a German student sample and also investigate whether the 2D:4D ratio is associated with people’s perceptions about others’ risk preferences. Following an incentivized risk elicitation task, we asked all participants their predictions about (i others’ responses (without sex specification, (ii men’s responses, and (iii women’s responses; then measured their 2D:4D ratios. In line with the previous findings, female participants in our sample were more risk averse. While both men and women underestimated other participants’ (non sex-specific and women’s risky decisions on average, their predictions about men were accurate. We also found evidence for the false consensus effect, as risky choices are positively correlated with predictions about other participants’ risky choices. The 2D:4D ratio was not directly associated either with risk preferences or the predictions of other participants’ choices. An unexpected finding was that women with mid-range levels of 2D:4D estimated significantly larger sex differences in participants’ decisions. This finding needs further testing in future studies.

  20. Risk Preferences and Predictions about Others: No Association with 2D:4D Ratio

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lima de Miranda, Katharina; Neyse, Levent; Schmidt, Ulrich

    2018-01-01

    Prenatal androgen exposure affects the brain development of the fetus which may facilitate certain behaviors and decision patterns in the later life. The ratio between the lengths of second and the fourth fingers (2D:4D) is a negative biomarker of the ratio between prenatal androgen and estrogen exposure and men typically have lower ratios than women. In line with the typical findings suggesting that women are more risk averse than men, several studies have also shown negative relationships between 2D:4D and risk taking although the evidence is not conclusive. Previous studies have also reported that both men and women believe women are more risk averse than men. In the current study, we re-test the relationship between 2D:4D and risk preferences in a German student sample and also investigate whether the 2D:4D ratio is associated with people’s perceptions about others’ risk preferences. Following an incentivized risk elicitation task, we asked all participants their predictions about (i) others’ responses (without sex specification), (ii) men’s responses, and (iii) women’s responses; then measured their 2D:4D ratios. In line with the previous findings, female participants in our sample were more risk averse. While both men and women underestimated other participants’ (non sex-specific) and women’s risky decisions on average, their predictions about men were accurate. We also found evidence for the false consensus effect, as risky choices are positively correlated with predictions about other participants’ risky choices. The 2D:4D ratio was not directly associated either with risk preferences or the predictions of other participants’ choices. An unexpected finding was that women with mid-range levels of 2D:4D estimated significantly larger sex differences in participants’ decisions. This finding needs further testing in future studies. PMID:29472846

  1. A balanced hazard ratio for risk group evaluation from survival data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Branders, Samuel; Dupont, Pierre

    2015-07-30

    Common clinical studies assess the quality of prognostic factors, such as gene expression signatures, clinical variables or environmental factors, and cluster patients into various risk groups. Typical examples include cancer clinical trials where patients are clustered into high or low risk groups. Whenever applied to survival data analysis, such groups are intended to represent patients with similar survival odds and to select the most appropriate therapy accordingly. The relevance of such risk groups, and of the related prognostic factors, is typically assessed through the computation of a hazard ratio. We first stress three limitations of assessing risk groups through the hazard ratio: (1) it may promote the definition of arbitrarily unbalanced risk groups; (2) an apparently optimal group hazard ratio can be largely inconsistent with the p-value commonly associated to it; and (3) some marginal changes between risk group proportions may lead to highly different hazard ratio values. Those issues could lead to inappropriate comparisons between various prognostic factors. Next, we propose the balanced hazard ratio to solve those issues. This new performance metric keeps an intuitive interpretation and is as simple to compute. We also show how the balanced hazard ratio leads to a natural cut-off choice to define risk groups from continuous risk scores. The proposed methodology is validated through controlled experiments for which a prescribed cut-off value is defined by design. Further results are also reported on several cancer prognosis studies, and the proposed methodology could be applied more generally to assess the quality of any prognostic markers. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  2. Simplifying cardiovascular risk estimation using resting heart rate.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2010-09-01

    Elevated resting heart rate (RHR) is a known, independent cardiovascular (CV) risk factor, but is not included in risk estimation systems, including Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE). We aimed to derive risk estimation systems including RHR as an extra variable and assess the value of this addition.

  3. Ratio K: a New Way of Metering and Evaluating the Risk and Return of Stock Investment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    朱淑珍; 朱静怡

    2003-01-01

    Although widely used, both the Markowitz model and VAR (Value at Risk) model have some limitations in evaluating the risk and return of stock investnent.By the analysis of the conceptions of risk and return,together with the three hypotheses of technological analysis, a novelty model of metering and evaluating the risk and return of stock investnent is established.The major indicator of this model , risk-return ratio K, combines the characteristic indicators of risk and return. Regardless of the form of the risk-return probability density functions, this indicator K can always reflect the risk-return performances of the invested stocks clearly and accurately. How to use the model to make optimum investment and how to make portfolio combined with clustering analysis is also explained.

  4. Exchange rate risk in Central European countries

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kočenda, Evžen; Poghosyan, T.

    2010-01-01

    Roč. 60, č. 1 (2010), s. 22-39 ISSN 0015-1920 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA402/08/1376; GA MŠk LC542 Institutional research plan: CEZ:MSM0021620846 Keywords : foreign exchange risk * time-varying risk premium * stochastic discount factor Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.278, year: 2010 http://journal.fsv.cuni.cz/storage/1178_str_22_39_-_ko%C4%8Denda.pdf

  5. Toxicity ratios: Their use and abuse in predicting the risk from induced cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mays, C.W.; Taylor, G.N.; Lloyd, R.D.

    1986-01-01

    The toxicity ratio concept assumes the validity of certain relationships. In some examples for bone sarcoma induction, the approximate toxicity of 239 Pu in man can be calculated algebraically from the observed toxicity in the radium-dial painters and the ratio of 239 Pu/ 226 Ra toxicities in suitable laboratory mammals. In a species highly susceptible to bone sarcoma induction, the risk coefficients for both 239 Pu and 226 Ra are elevated, but the toxicity ratio of 239 Pu to 226 Ra tends to be similar to the ratio in resistant species. Among the tested species the toxicity ratio of 239 Pu to 226 Ra ranged from 6 to 22 (a fourfold range), whereas their relative sensitivities to 239 Pu varied by a factor of 150. The toxicity ratio approach can also be used to estimate the actinide risk to man from liver cancer, by comparing to the Thorotrast patients; from lung cancer, by comparing to the uranium miners and the atomic-bomb survivors; and from neutron-induced cancers, by comparing to cancers induced by gamma rays. The toxicity ratio can be used to predict the risk to man from a specific type of cancer that has been reliably induced by a reference radiation in humans and that can be induced by both the reference and the investigated radiation in suitable laboratory animals. 26 refs., 3 figs., 1 tab

  6. Response-rate differences in variable-interval and variable-ratio schedules: An old problem revisited

    OpenAIRE

    Cole, Mark R.

    1994-01-01

    In Experiment 1, a variable-ratio 10 schedule became, successively, a variable-interval schedule with only the minimum interreinforcement intervals yoked to the variable ratio, or a variable-interval schedule with both interreinforcement intervals and reinforced interresponse times yoked to the variable ratio. Response rates in the variable-interval schedule with both interreinforcement interval and reinforced interresponse time yoking fell between the higher rates maintained by the variable-...

  7. Physician Bayesian updating from personal beliefs about the base rate and likelihood ratio.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rottman, Benjamin Margolin

    2017-02-01

    Whether humans can accurately make decisions in line with Bayes' rule has been one of the most important yet contentious topics in cognitive psychology. Though a number of paradigms have been used for studying Bayesian updating, rarely have subjects been allowed to use their own preexisting beliefs about the prior and the likelihood. A study is reported in which physicians judged the posttest probability of a diagnosis for a patient vignette after receiving a test result, and the physicians' posttest judgments were compared to the normative posttest calculated from their own beliefs in the sensitivity and false positive rate of the test (likelihood ratio) and prior probability of the diagnosis. On the one hand, the posttest judgments were strongly related to the physicians' beliefs about both the prior probability as well as the likelihood ratio, and the priors were used considerably more strongly than in previous research. On the other hand, both the prior and the likelihoods were still not used quite as much as they should have been, and there was evidence of other nonnormative aspects to the updating, such as updating independent of the likelihood beliefs. By focusing on how physicians use their own prior beliefs for Bayesian updating, this study provides insight into how well experts perform probabilistic inference in settings in which they rely upon their own prior beliefs rather than experimenter-provided cues. It suggests that there is reason to be optimistic about experts' abilities, but that there is still considerable need for improvement.

  8. Reaction Rate Distributions and Ratios in FR0 Assemblies 1, 2 and 3

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andersson, T L

    1966-06-15

    The spatial distribution of different reaction rates and reaction ratios in Assemblies 1, 2 and 3 of the fast reactor FR0 was measured by fission chamber scans and foil activation technique. Assemblies 1 and 2 had cores of undiluted fuel (uranium metal enriched to 20 % U{sup 235}) while the core of Assembly 3 was diluted with about 30 vol. % graphite. All the systems had a thick copper reflector, The experimental results were compared with calculated values obtained from DSN and TDC multigroup spectra and group cross-section sets for the reactions. Good agreement between experiment and calculations is generally obtained in the core region but in the reflector the neutron spectrum is calculated too hard.

  9. Interest Rate Risk Management using Duration Gap Methodology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dan Armeanu

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available The world for financial institutions has changed during the last 20 years, and become riskier and more competitive-driven. After the deregulation of the financial market, banks had to take on extensive risk in order to earn sufficient returns. Interest rate volatility has increased dramatically over the past twenty-five years and for that an efficient management of this interest rate risk is strong required. In the last years banks developed a variety of methods for measuring and managing interest rate risk. From these the most frequently used in real banking life and recommended by Basel Committee are based on: Reprising Model or Funding Gap Model, Maturity Gap Model, Duration Gap Model, Static and Dynamic Simulation. The purpose of this article is to give a good understanding of duration gap model used for managing interest rate risk. The article starts with a overview of interest rate risk and explain how this type of risk should be measured and managed within an asset-liability management. Then the articles takes a short look at methods for measuring interest rate risk and after that explains and demonstrates how can be used Duration Gap Model for managing interest rate risk in banks.The world for financial institutions has changed during the last 20 years, and become riskier and more competitive-driven. After the deregulation of the financial market, banks had to take on extensive risk in order to earn sufficient returns. Interest rate volatility has increased dramatically over the past twenty-five years and for that an efficient management of this interest rate risk is strong required. In the last years banks developed a variety of methods for measuring and managing interest rate risk. From these the most frequently used in real banking life and recommended by Basel Committee are based on: Reprising Model or Funding Gap Model, Maturity Gap Model, Duration Gap Model, Static and Dynamic Simulation. The purpose of this article is to give a

  10. Training loads and injury risk in Australian football—differing acute: chronic workload ratios influence match injury risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carey, David L; Blanch, Peter; Ong, Kok-Leong; Crossley, Kay M; Crow, Justin; Morris, Meg E

    2017-01-01

    Aims (1) To investigate whether a daily acute:chronic workload ratio informs injury risk in Australian football players; (2) to identify which combination of workload variable, acute and chronic time window best explains injury likelihood. Methods Workload and injury data were collected from 53 athletes over 2 seasons in a professional Australian football club. Acute:chronic workload ratios were calculated daily for each athlete, and modelled against non-contact injury likelihood using a quadratic relationship. 6 workload variables, 8 acute time windows (2–9 days) and 7 chronic time windows (14–35 days) were considered (336 combinations). Each parameter combination was compared for injury likelihood fit (using R2). Results The ratio of moderate speed running workload (18–24 km/h) in the previous 3 days (acute time window) compared with the previous 21 days (chronic time window) best explained the injury likelihood in matches (R2=0.79) and in the immediate 2 or 5 days following matches (R2=0.76–0.82). The 3:21 acute:chronic workload ratio discriminated between high-risk and low-risk athletes (relative risk=1.98–2.43). Using the previous 6 days to calculate the acute workload time window yielded similar results. The choice of acute time window significantly influenced model performance and appeared to reflect the competition and training schedule. Conclusions Daily workload ratios can inform injury risk in Australian football. Clinicians and conditioning coaches should consider the sport-specific schedule of competition and training when choosing acute and chronic time windows. For Australian football, the ratio of moderate speed running in a 3-day or 6-day acute time window and a 21-day chronic time window best explained injury risk. PMID:27789430

  11. Alarming of exchange rate crisis: A risk management approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Da Zhao

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Recently, with increasing volatility of foreign exchange rate, risk management becomes more and more important not only for multinational companies and individuals but also for central governments. This paper attempts to build an econometrics model so as to forecast and manage risks in foreign exchange market, especially during the eve of turbulent periods. By following McNeil and Frey’s (2000 two stage approach called conditional EVT to estimate dynamic VaR commonly used in stock and insurance markets, we extend it by applying a more general asymmetric ARMA-GARCH model to analyze daily foreign exchange dollar-denominated trading data from four countries of different development levels across Asia and Europe for a period of more than 10 years from January 03, 2005 to May 29, 2015, which is certainly representative of global markets. Conventionally, different kinds of backtesting methods are implemented ultimately to evaluate how well the model behaves. Inspiringly, test results show that by taking several specific characteristics (including fat-tails, asymmetry and long-range dependence of the foreign exchange market return data into consideration, the violation ratio of out-of-sample data can be forecasted very well for both fixed and flexible foreign exchange regimes. Moreover, all of the violations are evenly distributed along the whole period which indicates another favorable property of our model. Meanwhile, we find evidence of asymmetry volatility in all of the studied foreign exchange markets even though the magnitudes of the most of them are weak

  12. Influence of fluid properties, flow rate and aspect ratios on stratification in a cylindrical cavity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bouhdjar, A.; Benyoucef, B.; Harhad, A.

    2005-01-01

    Fluid flow and temperature field in a cavity are numerically simulated using finite volume techniques. The fluid flow in the vertical cylindrical cavity is assumed to be two-dimensional. Inflow occurs at the top through a ring like entrance and outflow takes place at the bottom through an exit of the same shape. The study considers a transient mixed convection flow. The governing equations are the conservation equations for laminar natural convection flow based on the Boussinesq approximation. Forced convection flow is superimposed through the appropriate boundary conditions (inflow and outflow conditions). The influence of the mass flow rate and of the fluid is made through the Reynolds number and the Prandtl number. Stratification analysis is made qualitatively through temperature distribution. In a previous study, consideration was given to low Reynolds numbers i.e. Re +4 ) in considering water (Pr=3.01) as the working fluid for the thermal energy storage. Correlations for the storage efficiency are deduced with respect to the Reynolds number and cavity aspect ratios of 1/0.5, 1/1 and 1/2. So the objective of the work is to get more information on the influence of flow rate on the storage efficiency as well as on the medium mean temperature. (author)

  13. Influence of fluid properties, flow rate and aspect ratios on stratification in a cylindrical cavity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bouhdjar, A.; Harhad, A.; Guerri, O.

    2003-01-01

    The fluid flow and temperature field in a cavity are numerically simulated using finite volume techniques. The fluid flow in the vertical cylindrical cavity is assumed to be two-dimensional. Inflow occurs at the top through a ring like entrance and outflow takes place at the bottom through an exit of the same shape. The study considers a transient mixed convection flow. The governing equations are the conservation equations for laminar natural convection flow based on the Boussinesq approximation. Forced convection flow is superimposed through the appropriate boundary conditions (inflow and outflow conditions). The influence of the mass flow rate and of the fluid is made through the Reynolds number and the Prandtl number. Stratification analysis is made qualitatively through temperature distribution. The study considers two fluids i.e. water (Pr=4.5) and ethylene glycol (Pr=51) and cavity aspect ratios of 1/0.5 and 1 /2. So the objective of the work is to get more information on the influence of flow rate on the performance of the thermal energy storage. Correlations for the storage efficiency are deduced with respect to the Reynolds number. (author)

  14. Self-rated health and cancer risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Roelsgaard, Ida Kristiane; Olesen, Anne Marie; Simonsen, Mette Kildevæld

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Self-rated health (SRH) has been shown to be a strong predictor of mortality from a number of major chronic diseases, however, the association with cancer remains unclear. The aim of this study was to investigate a possible association between change in SRH and cancer incidence...... proportional hazards model with adjustment for age, smoking, alcohol, marital status, physical activity, body mass index and estrogen replacement therapy. RESULTS: No significant association was found between SRH and overall cancer incidence in the age-adjusted Cox proportional hazards model (1.04; 95% CI 0...

  15. Real interest rates, leverage, and bank risk-taking

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dell’Ariccia, G.; Laeven, L.; Marquez, R.

    2014-01-01

    Do low interest rate environments lead to greater bank risk-taking? We show that, when banks can adjust their capital structures, reductions in real interest rates lead to greater leverage and higher risk for any downward sloping loan demand function. However, if the capital structure is fixed, the

  16. Interest Rate Risk Management using Duration Gap Methodology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dan Armeanu

    2008-01-01

    should be measured and managed within an asset-liability management. Then the articles takes a short look at methods for measuring interest rate risk and after that explains and demonstrates how can be used Duration Gap Model for managing interest rate risk in banks.

  17. Credit ratings and CEO risk-taking incentives

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuang, Y.; Qin, B.

    2013-01-01

    This study examines the sophistication of rating agencies in incorporating managerial risk-taking incentives into their credit risk evaluation. We measure risk-taking incentives using two proxies: the sensitivity of managerial wealth to stock return volatility (vega) and the sensitivity of

  18. Interest Rate Risk Management and the Use of Derivative Securities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ioana-Diana PĂUN

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to demonstrate the utility of derivative financial instruments for the management of interest rate risk that is faced by banks and financial institutions, and to provide an efficient flow of monitoring and control thereof. Banking institutions can now use a combination of balance sheet and off balance sheet measures, i.e. gap method, of interest rate risk management, in order to control exposure of short-term rates and derivatives to control the residual interest rate exposures. The result of the study shows that banks can achieve better diversification and risk management using derivatives.

  19. TECHNICAL RISK RATING OF DOE ENVIRONMENTAL PROJECTS - 9153

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cercy, M.; Fayfich, Ronald; Schneider, Steven P.

    2008-01-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Environmental Management (DOE-EM) was established to achieve the safe and compliant disposition of legacy wastes and facilities from defense nuclear applications. The scope of work is diverse, with projects ranging from single acquisitions to collections of projects and operations that span several decades and costs from hundreds of millions to billions US$. The need to be able to manage and understand the technical risks from the project to senior management level has been recognized as an enabler to successfully completing the mission. In 2008, DOE-EM developed the Technical Risk Rating as a new method to assist in managing technical risk based on specific criteria. The Technical Risk Rating, and the criteria used to determine the rating, provides a mechanism to foster open, meaningful communication between the Federal Project Directors and DOE-EM management concerning project technical risks. Four indicators (technical maturity, risk urgency, handling difficulty and resolution path) are used to focus attention on the issues and key aspects related to the risks. Pressing risk issues are brought to the forefront, keeping DOE-EM management informed and engaged such that they fully understand risk impact. Use of the Technical Risk Rating and criteria during reviews provides the Federal Project Directors the opportunity to openly discuss the most significant risks and assists in the management of technical risks across the portfolio of DOE-EM projects. Technical Risk Ratings can be applied to all projects in government and private industry. This paper will present the methodology and criteria for Technical Risk Ratings, and provide specific examples from DOE-EM projects

  20. WASP (Write a Scientific Paper) using Excel - 12: Odds ratio and relative risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grech, Victor

    2018-07-01

    The calculation of odds ratios and relative risks may be required as part of a data analysis exercise. This paper explains how to set up these calculations in Microsoft Excel from a two by two contingency table. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. The impact of sex ratio and economic status on local birth rates

    OpenAIRE

    Chipman, A.; Morrison, E.

    2013-01-01

    Human mating and reproductive behaviour can vary depending on various mechanisms, including the local sex ratio. Previous research shows that as sex ratios become female-biased, women from economically deprived areas are less likely to delay reproductive opportunities to wait for a high-investing mate but instead begin their reproductive careers sooner. Here, we show that the local sex ratio also has an impact on female fertility schedules. At young ages, a female-biased ratio is associated w...

  2. Effects of age and sex ratios on offspring recruitment rates in translocated black rhinoceros.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gedir, Jay V; Law, Peter R; du Preez, Pierre; Linklater, Wayne L

    2018-06-01

    Success of animal translocations depends on improving postrelease demographic rates toward establishment and subsequent growth of released populations. Short-term metrics for evaluating translocation success and its drivers, like postrelease survival and fecundity, are unlikely to represent longer-term outcomes. We used information theory to investigate 25 years of data on black rhinoceros (Diceros bicornis) translocations. We used the offspring recruitment rate (ORR) of translocated females-a metric integrating survival, fecundity, and offspring recruitment at sexual maturity-to detect determinants of success. Our unambiguously best model (AICω = 0.986) predicted that ORR increases with female age at release as a function of lower postrelease adult rhinoceros sex ratio (males:females). Delay of first postrelease reproduction and failure of some females to recruit any calves to sexual maturity most influenced the pattern of ORRs, and the leading causes of recruitment failure were postrelease female death (23% of all females) and failure to calve (24% of surviving females). We recommend translocating older females (≥6 years old) because they do not exhibit the reproductive delay and low ORRs of juveniles (recruitment failure of juveniles and young adults (4-5.9 years old). Where translocation of juveniles is necessary, they should be released into female-biased populations, where they have higher ORRs. Our study offers the unique advantage of a long-term analysis across a large number of replicate populations-a science-by-management experiment as a proxy for a manipulative experiment, and a rare opportunity, particularly for a large, critically endangered taxon such as the black rhinoceros. Our findings differ from previous recommendations, reinforce the importance of long-term data sets and comprehensive metrics of translocation success, and suggest attention be shifted from ecological to social constraints on population growth and species recovery, particularly

  3. A replication of the relationship between elderly suicides rates and elderly dependency ratios: a cross-national study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shah, Ajit

    2010-01-01

    A positive correlation between elderly dependency ratios and elderly suicide rates has been observed using one-year cross-sectional data on elderly suicide rates. A cross-national study designed to replicate this positive correlation between elderly dependency ratios and elderly suicide rates was undertaken by: (i) using one-year average of five years data on suicide rates; and (ii) using more recent data on both elderly suicide rates and elderly dependency ratios. Data on elderly suicide rates, and the total number of elderly and young people was ascertained from the World Health Organization website. The main findings were of significant positive correlations between elderly dependency ratios and suicide rates in both sexes in both the elderly age-bands (65-74 years and 75+ years). The replication of the positive correlations between elderly dependency ratios and elderly suicide rates by using one-year average of five years data on suicide rates suggests that this relationship is robust and accurate. ‎

  4. A replication of the relationship between elderly suicides rates and elderly dependency ratios: cross-national study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shah, Ajit

    2010-01-01

    Abstract: Background: A positive correlation between elderly dependency ratios and elderly suicide rates has been observed using one-year cross-sectional data on elderly suicide rates. Methods: A cross-national study designed to replicate this positive correlation between elderly dependency ratios and elderly suicide rates was undertaken by: (i) using one-year average of five years data on suicide rates; and (ii) using more recent data on both elderly suicide rates and elderly dependency ratios. Data on elderly suicide rates, and the total number of elderly and young people was ascertained from the World Health Organization website. Results: The main findings were of significant positive correlations between elderly dependency ratios and suicide rates in both sexes in both the elderly age-bands (65-74 years and 75+ years). Conclusions: The replication of the positive correlations between elderly dependency ratios and elderly suicide rates by using one-year average of five years data on suicide rates suggests that this relationship is robust and accurate. PMID:21483194

  5. Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio predicting suicide risk in euthymic patients with bipolar disorder: Moderatory effect of family history.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivković, Maja; Pantović-Stefanović, Maja; Dunjić-Kostić, Bojana; Jurišić, Vladimir; Lačković, Maja; Totić-Poznanović, Sanja; Jovanović, Aleksandar A; Damjanović, Aleksandar

    2016-04-01

    Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) has been independently related to bipolar disorder (BD) and factors associated with suicidal risk. The aim of our study was to explore the relationship between NLR and suicide risk in euthymic BD patients. We also sought to propose a model of interaction between NLR and stress-diathesis factors, leading to suicidal risk in BD. The study group consisted of 83 patients diagnosed with BD (36 suicide attempters; 47 suicide non-attempters), compared to the healthy control group (n=73) and matched according to age, gender, and body mass index (BMI). NLR was measured according to the complete blood count. Mood symptoms have been assessed by Young Mania Rating Scale and Montgomery-Asberg Depression Rating Scale. Early trauma and acute stress were evaluated by Early Trauma Inventory Self Report-Short Form and List of Threatening Experiences Questionnaire, respectively. Suicide risk has been assessed by Suicide Behaviors Questionnaire-Revised (SBQ-R). Significant correlation was found between NLR and SBQ-R score. The main effects of suicide attempts on NLR, after covarying for confounders, were observed, indicating increased NLR in BD suicide attempters compared to healthy controls. We found significant moderatory effects of family history on NLR relationship to suicidal risk, with NLR being significant positive predictor of suicidal risk only in the patients with positive family history of suicide attempts. The results suggest an enhancing effect of positive family history of suicide attempts on predictive effect of NLR on suicide risk. Our data support the idea that immune markers can predict suicide attempt risk in BD, but only in the subpopulation of BD patients with family history of suicide attempts. This could lead to prevention in suicide behavior in the patient population at particular risk of suicide. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. [Waist-to-height ratio is an indicator of metabolic risk in children].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valle-Leal, Jaime; Abundis-Castro, Leticia; Hernández-Escareño, Juan; Flores-Rubio, Salvador

    2016-01-01

    Abdominal fat, particularly visceral, is associated with a high risk of metabolic complications. The waist-height ratio (WHtR) is used to assess abdominal fat in individuals of all ages. To determine the ability of the waist-to-height ratio to detect metabolic risk in mexican schoolchildren. A study was conducted on children between 6 and 12 years. Obesity was diagnosed as a body mass index (BMI) ≥ 85th percentile, and an ICE ≥0.5 was considered abdominal obesity. Blood levels of glucose, cholesterol and triglycerides were measured. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive and negative value, area under curve, the positive likelihood ratio and negative likelihood ratio of the WHtR and BMI were calculated in order to identify metabolic alterations. WHtR and BMI were compared to determine which had the best diagnostic efficiency. Of the 223 children included in the study, 51 had hypertriglyceridaemia, 27 with hypercholesterolaemia, and 9 with hyperglycaemia. On comparing the diagnostic efficiency of WHtR with that of BMI, there was a sensitivity of 100% vs. 56% for hyperglycaemia, 93 vs. 70% for cholesterol, and 76 vs. 59% for hypertriglyceridaemia. The specificity, negative predictive value, positive predictive value, positive likelihood ratio, negative likelihood ratio, and area under curve were also higher for WHtR. The WHtR is a more efficient indicator than BMI in identifying metabolic risk in mexican school-age. Copyright © 2015 Sociedad Chilena de Pediatría. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  7. Training loads and injury risk in Australian football-differing acute: chronic workload ratios influence match injury risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carey, David L; Blanch, Peter; Ong, Kok-Leong; Crossley, Kay M; Crow, Justin; Morris, Meg E

    2017-08-01

    (1) To investigate whether a daily acute:chronic workload ratio informs injury risk in Australian football players; (2) to identify which combination of workload variable, acute and chronic time window best explains injury likelihood. Workload and injury data were collected from 53 athletes over 2 seasons in a professional Australian football club. Acute:chronic workload ratios were calculated daily for each athlete, and modelled against non-contact injury likelihood using a quadratic relationship. 6 workload variables, 8 acute time windows (2-9 days) and 7 chronic time windows (14-35 days) were considered (336 combinations). Each parameter combination was compared for injury likelihood fit (using R 2 ). The ratio of moderate speed running workload (18-24 km/h) in the previous 3 days (acute time window) compared with the previous 21 days (chronic time window) best explained the injury likelihood in matches (R 2 =0.79) and in the immediate 2 or 5 days following matches (R 2 =0.76-0.82). The 3:21 acute:chronic workload ratio discriminated between high-risk and low-risk athletes (relative risk=1.98-2.43). Using the previous 6 days to calculate the acute workload time window yielded similar results. The choice of acute time window significantly influenced model performance and appeared to reflect the competition and training schedule. Daily workload ratios can inform injury risk in Australian football. Clinicians and conditioning coaches should consider the sport-specific schedule of competition and training when choosing acute and chronic time windows. For Australian football, the ratio of moderate speed running in a 3-day or 6-day acute time window and a 21-day chronic time window best explained injury risk. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  8. Variable Pitch Approach for Performance Improving of Straight-Bladed VAWT at Rated Tip Speed Ratio

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhenzhou Zhao

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a new variable pitch (VP approach to increase the peak power coefficient of the straight-bladed vertical-axis wind turbine (VAWT, by widening the azimuthal angle band of the blade with the highest aerodynamic torque, instead of increasing the highest torque. The new VP-approach provides a curve of pitch angle designed for the blade operating at the rated tip speed ratio (TSR corresponding to the peak power coefficient of the fixed pitch (FP-VAWT. The effects of the new approach are exploited by using the double multiple stream tubes (DMST model and Prandtl’s mathematics to evaluate the blade tip loss. The research describes the effects from six aspects, including the lift, drag, angle of attack (AoA, resultant velocity, torque, and power output, through a comparison between VP-VAWTs and FP-VAWTs working at four TSRs: 4, 4.5, 5, and 5.5. Compared with the FP-blade, the VP-blade has a wider azimuthal zone with the maximum AoA, lift, drag, and torque in the upwind half-cycle, and yields the two new larger maximum values in the downwind half-cycle. The power distribution in the swept area of the turbine changes from an arched shape of the FP-VAWT into the rectangular shape of the VP-VAWT. The new VP-approach markedly widens the highest-performance zone of the blade in a revolution, and ultimately achieves an 18.9% growth of the peak power coefficient of the VAWT at the optimum TSR. Besides achieving this growth, the new pitching method will enhance the performance at TSRs that are higher than current optimal values, and an increase of torque is also generated.

  9. Inappropriate use of payment weights to risk adjust readmission rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuller, Richard L; Goldfield, Norbert I; Averill, Richard F; Hughes, John S

    2012-01-01

    In this article, the authors demonstrate that the use of relative weights, as incorporated within the National Quality Forum-endorsed PacifiCare readmission measure, is inappropriate for risk adjusting rates of hospital readmission.

  10. Identification of cardiometabolic risk: visceral adiposity index versus triglyceride/HDL cholesterol ratio.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salazar, Martin R; Carbajal, Horacio A; Espeche, Walter G; Aizpurúa, Marcelo; Maciel, Pablo M; Reaven, Gerald M

    2014-02-01

    The plasma concentration ratio of triglyceride (TG)/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) can identify cardiometabolic risk and cardiovascular disease. The visceral adiposity index is a sex-specific index, in which measurements of body mass index and waist circumference are combined with TG and HDL-C concentrations. The current analysis was initiated to see if the visceral adiposity index would improve the ability of the TG/HDL-C to identify increased cardiometabolic risk and outcome. Cardiometabolic data were obtained in 2003 from 926 apparently healthy individuals, 796 of whom were evaluated in 2012 for evidence of incident cardiovascular disease. The relationship between TG/HDL-C and values for visceral adiposity index was evaluated by Pearson's correlation coefficient. The relative risks for first cardiovascular event between individuals above and below the TG/HDL-C sex-specific cut points, and in the top quartile of visceral adiposity index versus the remaining 3 quartiles, were estimated using Cox proportional hazard models. TG/HDL-C concentration and visceral adiposity index were highly correlated (r = 0.99) in both men and women. Although more men (133 vs121) and women (73 vs 59) were identified as being at "high risk" by an elevated TG/HDL-C ratio, the individual cardiometabolic risk factors were essentially identical with either index used. However, the hazard ratio of developing cardiovascular disease was significantly increased in individuals with an elevated TG/HDL-C, whereas it was not the case when the visceral adiposity index was used to define "high risk." The visceral adiposity index does not identify individuals with an adverse cardiometabolic profile any better than the TG/HDL-C. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Analysis of the width ratio and wear rate of maxillary anterior teeth in the Korean population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oh, Yeon-Ah; Yang, Hong-So; Park, Sang-Won; Lim, Hyun-Pil; Yun, Kwi-Dug; Park, Chan

    2017-04-01

    The purpose of this study was to compare the width ratio of maxillary anterior teeth according to age in the Korean population and to evaluate the maxillary central incisor width-to-length (W/L) ratio, given differences in age and gender. Ninety-three Korean adults were divided into 3 groups (n = 31) by age. Group I was 20 - 39 years old, Group II was 40 - 59 years old, and Group III was over 60 years of age. After taking an impression and a cast model of the maxillary arch, the anterior teeth width ratio and central incisor W/L ratio were calculated from standard digital images of the cast models using a graph paper with a digital single lens reflex (DSLR) camera. The calculated ratios were compared among all groups and central incisor W/L ratio were analyzed according to age and gender. All comparative data were statistically analyzed with one-sample t-tests, one-way ANOVAs with Tukey tests, and independent t-tests. No significant differences in maxillary anterior teeth ratios were found among the age groups. The maxillary central incisor W/L ratios in Group III were the greatest and were significantly higher than those in the other groups. The central incisor W/L ratio of men was higher than that of women in Group II. Maxillary anterior teeth width ratios were similar in all age groups in the Korean population. The maxillary central incisor was observed as worn teeth in the group over 60 years of age, and a significant difference between genders was found in 40 to 50 year olds.

  12. Risks and rewards of variable-rate debt.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jordahl, Eric A

    2012-05-01

    Hospital and health system finance leaders should position their organizations to participate in the variable-rate market. To this end, one important step is to establish the right baseline variable-rate exposure target for the organization based on its credit and risk profile. Leaders also should be thoroughly familiar with the available products and understand the circumstances (pricing, terms, and embedded risk) under which the organization would be willing to deploy them within the overall capital structure.

  13. Subcutaneous to visceral fat ratio: a possible risk factor for metabolic syndrome and cardiovascular diseases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shafqat MN

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Muhammad Nabeel Shafqat,1 Miqdad Haider,2 1Department of Medicine, University of Medical Sciences “Serafin Ruiz de Zarate” Villa Clara (UCMVC, Villa Clara, Cuba; 2Department of Internal Medicine, Fatima Memorial Hospital, Fatima Memorial College of Medicine and Dentistry, Lahore, PakistanWe would like to comment, with great interest, about the recently published article “Visceral-to-subcutaneous fat ratio as a predictor of the multiple metabolic risk factors for subjects with normal waist circumference in Korea” by Oh et al,1 which we found very interesting and valuable. This study is a good step to determine the predictive value of visceral-to-subcutaneous fat ratio (VSR in persons with normal waist circumference for the diagnosis of risk factors for metabolic syndrome.View the original paper by Oh and colleagues.

  14. Acyl/free carnitine ratio is a risk factor for hepatic steatosis after pancreatoduodenectomy and total pancreatectomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakamura, Masafumi; Nakata, Kohei; Matsumoto, Hideo; Ohtsuka, Takao; Yoshida, Koji; Tokunaga, Shoji; Hino, Keisuke

    Hepatic steatosis, one of the most frequent long-term complications of pancreatectomy, influences not only hepatic function but also survival rate. However, its risk factors and pathogenesis have not been established. The purpose of this study was to clarify the risk factors for hepatic steatosis after pancreatectomy. In this retrospective study of 21 patients who had undergone pancreatectomy (19 cases of pancreatoduodenectomy and 2 cases of total pancreatectomy), serum carnitine concentrations, fractions of carnitine, and hepatic attenuation on computed tomography images were analyzed with the aim of identifying risk factors for hepatic steatosis. Thirteen (61.9%) of the 21 patients were diagnosed as having hypocarnitinemia after pancreatectomy. Average hepatic attenuation was as low as 42.2HU (±21.3 SD). A high ratio of acyl/free carnitine was associated with less pronounced hepatic attenuation according to both univariate (P pancreatectomy in some patients. The statistical analyses suggest that a high ratio of acyl/free carnitine is an independent risk factor for hepatic steatosis after pancreatectomy. Copyright © 2016 IAP and EPC. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. 75 FR 13145 - SBA Lender Risk Rating System

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-03-18

    ... SMALL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION [Docket No. SBA-2010-0004] SBA Lender Risk Rating System AGENCY: Small Business Administration. ACTION: Notice; extension of comment period and correction. SUMMARY: On... of Credit Risk Management, U.S. Small Business Administration, 409 Third Street, SW., 8th Floor...

  16. Risk and complication rate of uterine fibroid embolization (UFE)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Radeleff, B.; Rimbach, S.; Kauffmann, G.W.; Richter, G.M.

    2003-01-01

    Our goal was to evaluate risks and complication rate of uterine fibroid embolization (UFE). The most frequent complications reported in the literature are associated with angiography procedure, serious complications are extremely infrequent. The embolization of fibroids is a safe angiographic intervention. Nevertheless, the interventional radiologist must be aware of the common risks and complication and the strategies to avoid them. (orig.) [de

  17. College Students' Perceived Disease Risk versus Actual Prevalence Rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Matthew Lee; Dickerson, Justin B.; Sosa, Erica T.; McKyer, E. Lisako J.; Ory, Marcia G.

    2012-01-01

    Objective: To compare college students' perceived disease risk with disease prevalence rates. Methods: Data were analyzed from 625 college students collected with an Internet-based survey. Paired t-tests were used to separately compare participants' perceived 10-year and lifetime disease risk for 4 diseases: heart disease, cancer, diabetes, and…

  18. Movie Ratings and the Content of Adult Videos: The Sex-Violence Ratio.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Ni; Linz, Daniel

    1990-01-01

    Quantifies sexual, violent, sexually violent, and prosocial behaviors in a sample of R-rated and X-rated videocassettes. Finds the predominant behavior in both X- and XXX-rated videos is sexual. Finds the predominant behavior in R-rated videos was violence followed by prosocial behavior. (RS)

  19. An Increase in the Omega-6/Omega-3 Fatty Acid Ratio Increases the Risk for Obesity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simopoulos, Artemis P.

    2016-01-01

    In the past three decades, total fat and saturated fat intake as a percentage of total calories has continuously decreased in Western diets, while the intake of omega-6 fatty acid increased and the omega-3 fatty acid decreased, resulting in a large increase in the omega-6/omega-3 ratio from 1:1 during evolution to 20:1 today or even higher. This change in the composition of fatty acids parallels a significant increase in the prevalence of overweight and obesity. Experimental studies have suggested that omega-6 and omega-3 fatty acids elicit divergent effects on body fat gain through mechanisms of adipogenesis, browning of adipose tissue, lipid homeostasis, brain-gut-adipose tissue axis, and most importantly systemic inflammation. Prospective studies clearly show an increase in the risk of obesity as the level of omega-6 fatty acids and the omega-6/omega-3 ratio increase in red blood cell (RBC) membrane phospholipids, whereas high omega-3 RBC membrane phospholipids decrease the risk of obesity. Recent studies in humans show that in addition to absolute amounts of omega-6 and omega-3 fatty acid intake, the omega-6/omega-3 ratio plays an important role in increasing the development of obesity via both AA eicosanoid metabolites and hyperactivity of the cannabinoid system, which can be reversed with increased intake of eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA). A balanced omega-6/omega-3 ratio is important for health and in the prevention and management of obesity. PMID:26950145

  20. An Increase in the Omega-6/Omega-3 Fatty Acid Ratio Increases the Risk for Obesity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Artemis P. Simopoulos

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available In the past three decades, total fat and saturated fat intake as a percentage of total calories has continuously decreased in Western diets, while the intake of omega-6 fatty acid increased and the omega-3 fatty acid decreased, resulting in a large increase in the omega-6/omega-3 ratio from 1:1 during evolution to 20:1 today or even higher. This change in the composition of fatty acids parallels a significant increase in the prevalence of overweight and obesity. Experimental studies have suggested that omega-6 and omega-3 fatty acids elicit divergent effects on body fat gain through mechanisms of adipogenesis, browning of adipose tissue, lipid homeostasis, brain-gut-adipose tissue axis, and most importantly systemic inflammation. Prospective studies clearly show an increase in the risk of obesity as the level of omega-6 fatty acids and the omega-6/omega-3 ratio increase in red blood cell (RBC membrane phospholipids, whereas high omega-3 RBC membrane phospholipids decrease the risk of obesity. Recent studies in humans show that in addition to absolute amounts of omega-6 and omega-3 fatty acid intake, the omega-6/omega-3 ratio plays an important role in increasing the development of obesity via both AA eicosanoid metabolites and hyperactivity of the cannabinoid system, which can be reversed with increased intake of eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA. A balanced omega-6/omega-3 ratio is important for health and in the prevention and management of obesity.

  1. The effect of starch-garlic powder ratio on degradation rate of Gadung starch bioplastic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mairiza, L.; Mariana; Ramadhany, M.; Feviyussa, C. A.

    2018-03-01

    Bioplastic is one of the solutions for environmental problems caused by plastics waste. Utilization of toxic gadung starch in the manufacturing of bioplastic would be as an alternative, due to gadung bulb has high starch content, and it is still not used optimally. This research aimed to learn about the using of gadung starch-mixed with garlic powder of making biodegradable plastic packaging. Also, to observe the duration of degradation, as a level of biodegradability of plastic film produced. The method used making this bioplastic was casting method. The variables used in this study were the ratios of starch and powdered garlic, were 10:0; 8:2; 6:4, and the concentration of garlic powder were 2%; 4%; 6%; and 8 %. The degradation test was done by soil burial test. The results of the soil burial test shown that the film was more rapidly degraded at ratio of 6: 4 compared to the ratio of 8: 2 and 10: 0. The results shown that bioplastic at the starch-garlic powder ratio of 10: 0 was decomposed in 21 days, at the the ratio of 8:2 was 15 days, while at the ratio of 6:4, the plastic film was degraded in the 11 days.

  2. KRW/USD Exchange Rate Volatility and Efficient Risk Management

    OpenAIRE

    Sang-Yong Joo; Chae-Shick Chung; Young-Woo Lee

    1999-01-01

    This thesis analyzes the relationship between the exchange rate of Korean Won and US dollar and the amount of foreign exchange, and studies the direction of the amendment of the risk control of foreign exchange. The GARCH (Generalized Auto Regressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity) model which visually embodies the auto-regress of the wave of exchange rate shows that the amount of trade will enhance the fluidity of the exchange rate, that is, the various expects of the participators of the ma...

  3. The acute:chonic workload ratio in relation to injury risk in professional soccer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malone, Shane; Owen, Adam; Newton, Matt; Mendes, Bruno; Collins, Kieran D; Gabbett, Tim J

    2017-06-01

    To examine the association between combined sRPE measures and injury risk in elite professional soccer. Observational cohort study. Forty-eight professional soccer players (mean±SD age of 25.3±3.1 yr) from two elite European teams were involved within a one season study. Players completed a test of intermittent-aerobic capacity (Yo-YoIR1) to assess player's injury risk in relation to intermittent aerobic capacity. Weekly workload measures and time loss injuries were recorded during the entire period. Rolling weekly sums and week-to-week changes in workload were measured, allowing for the calculation of the acute:chronic workload ratio, which was calculated by dividing the acute (1-weekly) and chronic (4-weekly) workloads. All derived workload measures were modelled against injury data using logistic regression. Odds ratios (OR) were reported against a reference group. Players who exerted pre-season 1-weekly loads of ≥1500 to ≤2120AU were at significantly higher risk of injury compared to the reference group of ≤1500AU (OR=1.95, p=0.006). Players with increased intermittent-aerobic capacity were better able to tolerate increased 1-weekly absolute changes in training load than players with lower fitness levels (OR=4.52, p=0.011). Players who exerted in-season acute:chronic workload ratios of >1.00 to soccer players. A higher intermittent-aerobic capacity appears to offer greater injury protection when players are exposed to rapid changes in workload in elite soccer players. Moderate workloads, coupled with moderate-low to moderate-high acute:chronic workload ratios, appear to be protective for professional soccer players. Copyright © 2016 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Analysis of an employment of a gear ratio rate in CVT control system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grzegożek, W.; Szczepka, M.

    2016-09-01

    Continuously variable transmissions(CVTs) potentially ensure the selection of such a gear ratio that scooter fuel consumption can reach minimum value. Traditionally these CVT gearboxes are mechanically controlled, causing a gear ratio to be an engine revs function. This solution does not ensure optimum gear ratio. In this paper the solution for fuel optimal control problem is presented. The results obtained during brake stand research of scooter powertrains show the significant values of brake specific fuel consumption for the velocity that is maximum for a scooter according to highway code. With the introduction of CVT gearbox in which the selection of gear ratio can be controlled according to the worked out strategy the solution for fuel consumption problem is possible. Electromechanical actuators ensure the selection of a gear ratio independently of engine revs. Such type of construction solution makes working out the suitable control strategy that ensures decreasing of scooter fuel consumption possible. Presented strategies do not use precise optimization techniques. The CVT efficiency has a strong influence on transient operation. In the paper the control strategy owing to which fuel consumption decreases by over 40% is presented. The strategy was worked out on the basis of fuel consumption map for a defined scooter exploitation model. The possibilities of realization of the worked out strategy were tested on the brake test stand.

  5. Likelihood ratio-based integrated personal risk assessment of type 2 diabetes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sato, Noriko; Htun, Nay Chi; Daimon, Makoto; Tamiya, Gen; Kato, Takeo; Kubota, Isao; Ueno, Yoshiyuki; Yamashita, Hidetoshi; Fukao, Akira; Kayama, Takamasa; Muramatsu, Masaaki

    2014-01-01

    To facilitate personalized health care for multifactorial diseases, risks of genetic and clinical/environmental factors should be assessed together for each individual in an integrated fashion. This approach is possible with the likelihood ratio (LR)-based risk assessment system, as this system can incorporate manifold tests. We examined the usefulness of this system for assessing type 2 diabetes (T2D). Our system employed 29 genetic susceptibility variants, body mass index (BMI), and hypertension as risk factors whose LRs can be estimated from openly available T2D association data for the Japanese population. The pretest probability was set at a sex- and age-appropriate population average of diabetes prevalence. The classification performance of our LR-based risk assessment was compared to that of a non-invasive screening test for diabetes called TOPICS (with score based on age, sex, family history, smoking, BMI, and hypertension) using receiver operating characteristic analysis with a community cohort (n = 1263). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for the LR-based assessment and TOPICS was 0.707 (95% CI 0.665-0.750) and 0.719 (0.675-0.762), respectively. These AUCs were much higher than that of a genetic risk score constructed using the same genetic susceptibility variants, 0.624 (0.574-0.674). The use of ethnically matched LRs is necessary for proper personal risk assessment. In conclusion, although LR-based integrated risk assessment for T2D still requires additional tests that evaluate other factors, such as risks involved in missing heritability, our results indicate the potential usability of LR-based assessment system and stress the importance of stratified epidemiological investigations in personalized medicine.

  6. Agreement in cardiovascular risk rating based on anthropometric parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dantas, Endilly Maria da Silva; Pinto, Cristiane Jordânia; Freitas, Rodrigo Pegado de Abreu; Medeiros, Anna Cecília Queiroz de

    2015-01-01

    To investigate the agreement in evaluation of risk of developing cardiovascular diseases based on anthropometric parameters in young adults. The study included 406 students, measuring weight, height, and waist and neck circumferences. Waist-to-height ratio and the conicity index. The kappa coefficient was used to assess agreement in risk classification for cardiovascular diseases. The positive and negative specific agreement values were calculated as well. The Pearson chi-square (χ"2) test was used to assess associations between categorical variables (p<0.05). The majority of the parameters assessed (44%) showed slight (k=0.21 to 0.40) and/or poor agreement (k<0.20), with low values of negative specific agreement. The best agreement was observed between waist circumference and waist-to-height ratio both for the general population (k=0.88) and between sexes (k=0.93 to 0.86). There was a significant association (p<0.001) between the risk of cardiovascular diseases and females when using waist circumference and conicity index, and with males when using neck circumference. This resulted in a wide variation in the prevalence of cardiovascular disease risk (5.5%-36.5%), depending on the parameter and the sex that was assessed. The results indicate variability in agreement in assessing risk for cardiovascular diseases, based on anthropometric parameters, and which also seems to be influenced by sex. Further studies in the Brazilian population are required to better understand this issue

  7. Agreement in cardiovascular risk rating based on anthropometric parameters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dantas, Endilly Maria da Silva; Pinto, Cristiane Jordânia; Freitas, Rodrigo Pegado de Abreu; Medeiros, Anna Cecília Queiroz de [Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, Natal, RN (Brazil)

    2015-07-01

    To investigate the agreement in evaluation of risk of developing cardiovascular diseases based on anthropometric parameters in young adults. The study included 406 students, measuring weight, height, and waist and neck circumferences. Waist-to-height ratio and the conicity index. The kappa coefficient was used to assess agreement in risk classification for cardiovascular diseases. The positive and negative specific agreement values were calculated as well. The Pearson chi-square (χ{sup 2}) test was used to assess associations between categorical variables (p<0.05). The majority of the parameters assessed (44%) showed slight (k=0.21 to 0.40) and/or poor agreement (k<0.20), with low values of negative specific agreement. The best agreement was observed between waist circumference and waist-to-height ratio both for the general population (k=0.88) and between sexes (k=0.93 to 0.86). There was a significant association (p<0.001) between the risk of cardiovascular diseases and females when using waist circumference and conicity index, and with males when using neck circumference. This resulted in a wide variation in the prevalence of cardiovascular disease risk (5.5%-36.5%), depending on the parameter and the sex that was assessed. The results indicate variability in agreement in assessing risk for cardiovascular diseases, based on anthropometric parameters, and which also seems to be influenced by sex. Further studies in the Brazilian population are required to better understand this issue.

  8. Ratio of hadronic decay rates of J/ψ and ψ(2S) and the ρπ puzzle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gu, Y. F.; Li, X. H.

    2001-01-01

    The so-called ρπ puzzle of J/ψ and ψ(2S) decays is examined using the experimental data available to date. Two different approaches were taken to estimate the ratio of J/ψ and ψ(2S) hadronic decay rates. While one of the estimates could not yield the exact ratio of ψ(2S) to J/ψ inclusive hadronic decay rates, the other, based on a computation of the inclusive ggg decay rate for ψ(2S)(J/ψ) by subtracting other decay rates from the total decay rate, differs by two standard deviations from the naive prediction of perturbative QCD, even though its central value is nearly twice as large as what was naively expected. A comparison between this ratio, upon making corrections for specific exclusive two-body decay modes, and the corresponding experimental data confirms the puzzles in J/ψ and ψ(2S) decays. We find from our analysis that the exclusively reconstructed hadronic decays of the ψ(2S) account for only a small fraction of its total decays, and a ratio exceeding the above estimate should be expected to occur for a considerable number of the remaining decay channels. We also show that the recent new results from the BES experiment provide crucial tests of various theoretical models proposed to explain the puzzle

  9. Failure rate data for fusion safety and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cadwallader, L.C.

    1993-01-01

    The Fusion Safety Program (FSP) at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) conducts safety research in materials, chemical reactions, safety analysis, risk assessment, and in component research and development to support existing magnetic fusion experiments and also to promote safety in the design of future experiments. One of the areas of safety research is applying probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methods to fusion experiments. To apply PRA, we need a fusion-relevant radiological dose code and a component failure rate data base. This paper describes the FSP effort to develop a failure rate data base for fusion-specific components

  10. Relationship of Employee Attitudes and Supervisor-Controller Ratio to En Route Operational Error Rates

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Broach, Dana

    2002-01-01

    ...; Rodgers, Mogford, Mogford, 1998). In this study, the relationship of organizational factors to en route OE rates was investigated, based on an adaptation of the Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS; Shappell & Wiegmann 2000...

  11. [Triglycerides/HDL-cholesterol ratio: in adolescents without cardiovascular risk factors].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soutelo, Jimena; Graffigna, Mabel; Honfi, Margarita; Migliano, Marta; Aranguren, Marcela; Proietti, Adrian; Musso, Carla; Berg, Gabriela

    2012-06-01

    Triglycerides/HDL-cholesterol ratio (TG/HDL) is an easy resource determination and it has good correlation with the HOMA index in adults. Due to physiological insulin resistance (IR) in adolescence it is necessary to find markers of IR independent of age, sex and pubertal stage. The objective was to identify reference values of TG/HDL ratio in a population of adolescents without cardiovascular risk factors. We evaluated 943 adolescents, 429 females and 514 males between 11 and 14. Anthropometric measures were determined and body mass index was calculated (BMI). Blood was extracted after 12 hours of fasting to determine glucose, triglycerides, HDL. The metabolic syndrome (MS) was diagnosed according to criteria of NCEP/ATP III modified by Cook. We excluded adolescents with MS or any component of it. We evaluated 562 adolescents (289 women and 273 men) with a weight of 48.91 +/- 6.51kg, BMI: 18.95 +/- 1.78, systolic blood pressure of 108.12 +/- 13.60 mmHg, diastolic blood pressure: 63.82 +/- 9.43 and waist circumference: 65.09 +/- 4.54 cm. TG/HDL ratio was 1.25 +/- 0.43, with a 95 percentile of 2.05. In adults, TG/HDL ratio greater than 3 is a marker of insulin resistance. We believe that a higher value to 2.05 might be a good index of insulin resistance in adolescence. TG/HDL ratio has the advantage of being methodologically simpler, more economical and independent of pubertal stage.

  12. Risk-to-Benefit Ratio of Venous Thromboembolism Prophylaxis for Neurosurgical Procedures at a Quaternary Referral Center.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agarwal, Nitin; Zenonos, Georgios A; Agarwal, Prateek; Walch, Frank J; Roach, Eileen; Stokes, Sandra J; Friedlander, Robert M; Gerszten, Peter C

    2018-03-09

    Pharmacological prophylaxis for venous thromboembolism (VTE) in the neurosurgical population is still a matter of debate, as the risk-to-benefit ratio is not well defined. To further evaluate the risk-to-benefit ratio of VTE prophylaxis (VTEP) for all neurosurgical procedures. A prospective evaluation was performed after the initiation of a VTEP protocol for 11 436 patients undergoing neurosurgical procedures over 24 mo. Unless a bleeding complication was present, 5000 international units of subcutaneous heparin every 8 h was ordered on postoperative day (POD) 1 for spine, POD2 for cranial, and by POD4 for subdural, intracerebral, and epidural hematoma cases. Incidence of VTE and any subsequent bleeding complications were noted. A total of 70 VTEs (0.6% overall) were documented (28 deep vein thrombosis, 42 pulmonary embnolism). The highest rates of VTE were associated with deformity (6.7%); open cerebrovascular (6.5%); subdural, intracerebral, and epidural hematoma (3.2%); spinal trauma (2.4%); and craniotomy for tumor (1.6%) cases. Seven cases of deep vein thrombosis progressed to pulmonary embolisms, and 66 of 70 VTEs occurred while on pharmacological VTEP. Fifty-four bleeding complications occurred on or after POD2 following initiation of VTEP. These bleeding complications consisted of any new clinically or radiographically observed hemorrhages. Twenty-eight of the 54 delayed bleeding complications required operative intervention with 1 mortality. Forty-five patients were on anticoagulation when the initial bleeding event occurred. Overall, an estimated 0.5% incidence of delayed bleeding complications was noted with 99.4% of patients within the study cohort remaining VTE free. This VTEP protocol was determined to afford a good risk-to-benefit ratio for a wide variety of neurosurgical procedures.

  13. Fasting respiratory exchange ratio and resting metabolic rate as predictors of weight gain : the Baltimore Longitudinal Study on Aging

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Seidell, J C; Muller, D C; Sorkin, J D; Andres, R.

    The authors followed 775 men (aged 18-98 years) participating in the Baltimore Longitudinal Study in Aging for an average of ten years. Resting metabolic rate and fasting respiratory exchange ratio (RER) were measured by indirect calorimetry on their first visit and related to subsequent weight

  14. Effect of mixture ratios and nitrogen carrier gas flow rates on the morphology of carbon nanotube structures grown by CVD

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Malgas, GF

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper reports on the growth of carbon nanotubes (CNTs) by thermal Chemical Vapour Deposition (CVD) and investigates the effects of nitrogen carrier gas flow rates and mixture ratios on the morphology of CNTs on a silicon substrate by vaporizing...

  15. Low to high frequency ratio of heart rate variability spectra fails to describe sympatho-vagal balance in cardiac patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milicević, Goran

    2005-06-01

    Heart rate variability (HRV) reflects an influence of autonomic nervous system on heart work. In healthy subjects, ratio between low and high frequency components (LF/HF ratio) of HRV spectra represents a measure of sympatho-vagal balance. The ratio was defined by the authorities as an useful clinical tool, but it seems that it fails to summarise sympatho-vagal balance in a clinical setting. Value of the method was re-evaluated in several categories of cardiac patients. HRV was analysed from 24-hour Holter ECGs in 132 healthy subjects, and 2159 cardiac patients dichotomised by gender, median of age, diagnosis of myocardial infarction or coronary artery surgery, left ventricular systolic function and divided by overall HRV into several categories. In healthy subjects, LF/HF ratio correlated with overall HRV negatively, as expected. The paradoxical finding was obtained in cardiac patients; the lower the overall HRV and the time-domain indices of vagal modulation activity were the lower the LF/HF ratio was. If used as a measure of sympatho-vagal balance, long-term recordings of LF/HF ratio contradict to clinical finding and time-domain HRV indices in cardiac patients. The ratio cannot therefore be used as a reliable marker of autonomic activity in a clinical setting.

  16. Can body mass index, waist circumference, waist-hip ratio and waist-height ratio predict the presence of multiple metabolic risk factors in Chinese subjects?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lu Liping

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Obesity is associated with metabolic risk factors. Body mass index (BMI, waist circumference, waist-hip ratio (WHR and waist-height ratio (WHtR are used to predict the risk of obesity related diseases. However, it has not been examined whether these four indicators can detect the clustering of metabolic risk factors in Chinese subjects. Methods There are 772 Chinese subjects in the present study. Metabolic risk factors including high blood pressure, dyslipidemia, and glucose intolerance were identified according to the criteria from WHO. All statistical analyses were performed separately according to sex by using the SPSS 12.0. Results BMI, waist circumference and WHtR values were all significantly associated with blood pressure, glucose, triglyceride and also with the number of metabolic risk factors in both male and female subjects (all of P Conclusion The BMI, waist circumference and WHtR values can similarly predict the presence of multiple metabolic risk factors in Chinese subjects.

  17. 77 FR 57990 - Interest Rate Risk Policy and Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-09-19

    ... NATIONAL CREDIT UNION ADMINISTRATION 12 CFR Part 741 RIN 3133-AD66 Interest Rate Risk Policy and Program Correction In rule document 2012-02091, appearing on pages 55155-5167 in the issue of Thursday, February 2, 2012, make the following corrections: 1. On page 5157, in the second column, in the first line...

  18. Government spending shocks, sovereign risk and the exchange rate regime

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bonam, D.; Lukkezen, J.H.J.

    2014-01-01

    Keynesian theory predicts output responses upon a fiscal expansion in a small open economy to be larger under fixed than floating exchange rates. We analyse the effects of fiscal expansions using a New Keynesian model and find that the reverse holds in the presence of sovereign default risk. By

  19. Gynecologic cancer mortality in Trinidad and Tobago and comparisons of mortality-to-incidence rate ratios across global regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Llanos, Adana A. M.; Warner, Wayne A.; Luciani, Silvana; Lee, Tammy Y.; Bajracharya, Smriti; Slovacek, Simeon; Roach, Veronica; Lamont-Greene, Marjorie

    2018-01-01

    Purpose To examine the factors associated with gynecologic cancer mortality risks, to estimate the mortality-to-incidence rate ratios (MIR) in Trinidad and Tobago (TT), and to compare the MIRs to those of select countries. Methods Data on 3,915 incident gynecologic cancers reported to the National Cancer Registry of TT from 1 January 1995 to 31 December 2009 were analyzed using proportional hazards models to determine factors associated with mortality. MIRs for cervical, endometrial, and ovarian cancers were calculated using cancer registry data (TT), GLOBOCAN 2012 incidence data, and WHO Mortality Database 2012 data (WHO regions and select countries). Results Among the 3,915 incident gynecologic cancers diagnosed in TT during the study period, 1,795 (45.8%) were cervical, 1,259 (32.2%) were endometrial, and 861 (22.0%) were ovarian cancers. Older age, African ancestry, geographic residence, tumor stage, and treatment non-receipt were associated with increased gynecologic cancer mortality in TT. Compared to GLOBOCAN 2012 data, TT MIR estimates for cervical (0.49 vs. 0.53), endometrial (0.61 vs. 0.65), and ovarian cancers (0.32 vs. 0.48) were elevated. While the Caribbean region had intermediate gynecologic cancer MIRs, MIRs in TT were among the highest of the countries examined in the Caribbean region. Conclusions Given its status as a high-income economy, the relatively high gynecologic cancer MIRs observed in TT are striking. These findings highlight the urgent need for improved cancer surveillance, screening, and treatment for these (and other) cancers in this Caribbean nation. PMID:28917021

  20. Courting disaster: How diversification rate affects fitness under risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ratcliff, William C; Hawthorne, Peter; Libby, Eric

    2015-01-01

    Life is full of risk. To deal with this uncertainty, many organisms have evolved bet-hedging strategies that spread risk through phenotypic diversification. These rates of diversification can vary by orders of magnitude in different species. Here we examine how key characteristics of risk and organismal ecology affect the fitness consequences of variation in diversification rate. We find that rapid diversification is strongly favored when the risk faced has a wide spatial extent, with a single disaster affecting a large fraction of the population. This advantage is especially great in small populations subject to frequent disaster. In contrast, when risk is correlated through time, slow diversification is favored because it allows adaptive tracking of disasters that tend to occur in series. Naturally evolved diversification mechanisms in diverse organisms facing a broad array of environmental risks largely support these results. The theory presented in this article provides a testable ecological hypothesis to explain the prevalence of slow stochastic switching among microbes and rapid, within-clutch diversification strategies among plants and animals. PMID:25410817

  1. Courting disaster: How diversification rate affects fitness under risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ratcliff, William C; Hawthorne, Peter; Libby, Eric

    2015-01-01

    Life is full of risk. To deal with this uncertainty, many organisms have evolved bet-hedging strategies that spread risk through phenotypic diversification. These rates of diversification can vary by orders of magnitude in different species. Here we examine how key characteristics of risk and organismal ecology affect the fitness consequences of variation in diversification rate. We find that rapid diversification is strongly favored when the risk faced has a wide spatial extent, with a single disaster affecting a large fraction of the population. This advantage is especially great in small populations subject to frequent disaster. In contrast, when risk is correlated through time, slow diversification is favored because it allows adaptive tracking of disasters that tend to occur in series. Naturally evolved diversification mechanisms in diverse organisms facing a broad array of environmental risks largely support these results. The theory presented in this article provides a testable ecological hypothesis to explain the prevalence of slow stochastic switching among microbes and rapid, within-clutch diversification strategies among plants and animals. © 2014 The Author(s). Evolution published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of The Society for the Study of Evolution.

  2. Do exchange rates follow random walks? A variance ratio test of the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Kirstam

    However, emerging markets in sub-Saharan Africa have ... C.J. Auret and Mr L. Chiliba are at the School of Economic and Business Sciences, University ... follow the exchange rate, as this helps them to manage or guard their exposures.

  3. 75 FR 66271 - Assessment Dividends, Assessment Rates and Designated Reserve Ratio

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-27

    ... sufficiently large fund and stable premiums is most apparent. Memories of the last two crises will fade and the... deposit and assessment base growth (using adjusted total domestic deposits). Implied forward interest... the analysis into the future, using estimates based on implied forward interest rates and assuming...

  4. KRW/USD Exchange Rate Volatility and Efficient Risk Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sang-Yong Joo

    1999-03-01

    Full Text Available This thesis analyzes the relationship between the exchange rate of Korean Won and US dollar and the amount of foreign exchange, and studies the direction of the amendment of the risk control of foreign exchange. The GARCH (Generalized Auto Regressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity model which visually embodies the auto-regress of the wave of exchange rate shows that the amount of trade will enhance the fluidity of the exchange rate, that is, the various expects of the participators of the market affect the amount of trade and the fluidity, so in the process of trading, the trader who is in the dry tree of information bears more trading expenditure. It is predicted that the liberalization of foreign exchange rate and fluctuated exchange rate system will jointly bring the enhancement of the fluidity of the exchange rate and the amount of exchange trade. The change of this system will bring the rise of participators in foreign exchange market; meanwhile, it will also initiate superfluous fluidity of foreign exchange market. In order to overcome this problem, the government needs to implement the development strategy of the understructure of the foreign exchange market and the enterprises need to carry through systemic exchange rate risk control.

  5. Measurement of 237Np fission rate ratio relative to 235U fission rate in cores with various thermal neutron spectrum at the Kyoto University Critical Assembly

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Unesaki, Hironobu; Shiroya, Seiji; Iwasaki, Tomohiko; Fujiwara, Daisuke; Kitada, Takanori; Kuroda, Mitsuo; Kohashi, Akio; Kato, Takeshi; Ikeuchi, Yoshitaka

    2000-01-01

    Integral measurements of 237 Np fission rate ratio relative to 235 U fission rate have been performed at Kyoto University Citrical Assembly. The fission rates have been measured using the back-to back type double fission chamber at five thermal cores with different H/ 235 U ratio so that the neutron spectra of the cores were systematically varied. The measured fission rate ratio per atom was 0.00439 to 0.0298, with a typical uncertainty of 2 to 3%. The measured data were compared with the calculated results using SRAC/TWOTRAN and MVP based on JENDL-3.2, which gave the averaged C/E values of 0.93 and 0.95, respectively. Obtained results of C/E using 237 Np cross sections from JENDL-3/2, ENDF/B-VI.5 and JEF2.2 show that the latter two gave smaller results than JENDL-3.2 by about 4%, which clearly reflects the discrepancy in the evaluated cross section among the libraries. This difference arises from both fast fission and resonance region. Although further improvement is recommended, 237 Np fission cross section in JENDL-3.2 is considered to be superior to those in the other libraries and can be adopted for use in design calculations for minor actinide transmutation system using thermal reactors with prediction precision of 237 Np fission rate with in 10%. (author)

  6. Collaborative Event-Driven Coverage and Rate Allocation for Event Miss-Ratio Assurances in Wireless Sensor Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ozgur Sanli H

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Wireless sensor networks are often required to provide event miss-ratio assurance for a given event type. To meet such assurances along with minimum energy consumption, this paper shows how a node's activation and rate assignment is dependent on its distance to event sources, and proposes a practical coverage and rate allocation (CORA protocol to exploit this dependency in realistic environments. Both uniform event distribution and nonuniform event distribution are considered and the notion of ideal correlation distance around a clusterhead is introduced for on-duty node selection. In correlation distance guided CORA, rate assignment assists coverage scheduling by determining which nodes should be activated for minimizing data redundancy in transmission. Coverage scheduling assists rate assignment by controlling the amount of overlap among sensing regions of neighboring nodes, thereby providing sufficient data correlation for rate assignment. Extensive simulation results show that CORA meets the required event miss-ratios in realistic environments. CORA's joint coverage scheduling and rate allocation reduce the total energy expenditure by 85%, average battery energy consumption by 25%, and the overhead of source coding up to 90% as compared to existing rate allocation techniques.

  7. Determine variation of poisson ratios and thermal creep stresses and strain rates in an isotropic disc

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gupta Nishi

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Seth's transition theory is applied to the problem of thermal creep transition stresses and strain rates in a thin rotating disc with shaft having variable density by finite deformation. Neither the yield criterion nor the associated flow rule is assumed here. The results obtained here are applicable to compressible materials. If the additional condition of incompressibility is imposed, then the expression for stresses corresponds to those arising from Tresca yield condition. Thermal effect decreased value of radial stress at the internal surface of the rotating isotropic disc made of compressible material as well as incompressible material and this value of radial stress further much increases with the increase in angular speed. With the introduction of thermal effects, the maximum value of strain rates further increases at the internal surface for compressible materials as compare to incompressible material.

  8. The Chernobyl accident, the male to female ratio at birth and birth rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grech, Victor

    2014-01-01

    The male:female ratio at birth (male births divided by total live births - M/T) has been shown to increase in response to ionizing radiation due to gender-biased fetal loss, with excess female loss. M/T rose sharply in 1987 in central-eastern European countries following the Chernobyl accident in 1986. This study analyses M/T and births for the former Soviet Republics and for the countries most contaminated by the event. Annual birth data was obtained from the World Health Organisation. The countries with the highest exposure levels (by ¹³⁷Cs) were identified from an official publication of the International Atomic Energy Agency. All of the former Soviet states were also analysed and the periods before and after 1986 were compared. Except for the Baltic States, all regions in the former USSR showed a significant rise in M/T from 1986. There were significant rises in M/T in the three most exposed (Belarus, Ukraine and the Russian Federation). The birth deficit in the post-Soviet states for the ten years following Chernobyl was estimated at 2,072,666, of which 1,087,924 are accounted by Belarus and Ukraine alone. Chernobyl has resulted in the loss of millions of births, a process that has involved female even more than male fetuses. This is another and oft neglected consequence of widespread population radiation contamination.

  9. THE CHERNOBYL ACCIDENT, THE MALE TO FEMALE RATIO AT BIRTH AND BIRTH RATES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Victor Grech

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The male:female ratio at birth (male births divided by total live births – M/T has been shown to increase in response to ionizing radiation due to gender-biased fetal loss, with excess female loss. M/T rose sharply in 1987 in central-eastern European countries following the Chernobyl accident in 1986. This study analyses M/T and births for the former Soviet Republics and for the countries most contaminated by the event. Methods: Annual birth data was obtained from the World Health Organisation. The countries with the highest exposure levels (by 137Cs were identified from an official publication of the International Atomic Energy Agency. All of the former Soviet states were also analysed and the periods before and after 1986 were compared. Results: Except for the Baltic States, all regions in the former USSR showed a significant rise in M/T from 1986. There were significant rises in M/T in the three most exposed (Belarus, Ukraine and the Russian Federation. The birth deficit in the post-Soviet states for the ten years following Chernobyl was estimated at 2,072,666, of which 1,087,924 are accounted by Belarus and Ukraine alone. Discussion: Chernobyl has resulted in the loss of millions of births, a process that has involved female even more than male fetuses. This is another and oft neglected consequence of widespread population radiation contamination.

  10. Abdominoplasty: Risk Factors, Complication Rates, and Safety of Combined Procedures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winocour, Julian; Gupta, Varun; Ramirez, J Roberto; Shack, R Bruce; Grotting, James C; Higdon, K Kye

    2015-11-01

    Among aesthetic surgery procedures, abdominoplasty is associated with a higher complication rate, but previous studies are limited by small sample sizes or single-institution experience. A cohort of patients who underwent abdominoplasty between 2008 and 2013 was identified from the CosmetAssure database. Major complications were recorded. Univariate and multivariate analysis was performed evaluating risk factors, including age, smoking, body mass index, sex, diabetes, type of surgical facility, and combined procedures. The authors identified 25,478 abdominoplasties from 183,914 procedures in the database. Of these, 8,975 patients had abdominoplasty alone and 16,503 underwent additional procedures. The number of complications recorded was 1,012 (4.0 percent overall rate versus 1.4 percent in other aesthetic surgery procedures). Of these, 31.5 percent were hematomas, 27.2 percent were infections and 20.2 percent were suspected or confirmed venous thromboembolism. On multivariate analysis, significant risk factors (p procedures (1.5), and procedure performance in a hospital or surgical center versus office-based surgical suite (1.6). Combined procedures increased the risk of complication (abdominoplasty alone, 3.1 percent; with liposuction, 3.8 percent; breast procedure, 4.3 percent; liposuction and breast procedure, 4.6 percent; body-contouring procedure, 6.8 percent; liposuction and body-contouring procedure, 10.4 percent). Abdominoplasty is associated with a higher complication rate compared with other aesthetic procedures. Combined procedures can significantly increase complication rates and should be considered carefully in higher risk patients. Risk, II.

  11. The correlates of urinary albumin to creatinine ratio (ACR) in a high risk Australian aboriginal community.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Zaimin; Hoy, Wendy E; Wang, Zhiqiang

    2013-08-16

    Albuminuria marks renal disease and cardiovascular risk. It was estimated to contribute 75% of the risk of all-cause natural death in one Aboriginal group. The urine albumin/creatinine ratio (ACR) is commonly used as an index of albuminuria. This study aims to examine the associations between demographic factors, anthropometric index, blood pressure, lipid-protein measurements and other biomarkers and albuminuria in a cross-sectional study in a high-risk Australian Aboriginal population. The models will be evaluated for albuminuria at or above the microalbuminuria threshold, and at or above the "overt albuminuria" threshold with the potential to distinguish associations they have in common and those that differ. This was a cross-sectional study of 598 adults aged 18-76 years. All participants were grouped into quartiles by age. Logistic regression models were used to explore the correlates of ACR categories. The significant correlates were systolic blood pressure (SBP), C-reactive protein (CRP), uric acid, diabetes, gamma-glutamyl transferase (GGT) (marginally significant, p=0.054) and serum albumin (negative association) for ACR 17+ (mg/g) for men and 25+ for women. Independent correlates were SBP, uric acid, diabetes, total cholesterol, alanine amino transferase (ALT), Cystatin C and serum albumin (negative association) for overt albuminuria; and SBP, CRP and serum albumin only for microalbuminuria. This is the most detailed modelling of pathologic albuminuria in this setting to date. The somewhat variable association with risk factors suggests that microalbuminuria and overt albuminuria might reflect different as well as shared phenomena.

  12. [Effect of elastic strain rate ratio method and virtual touch tissue quantification on the diagnosis of breast masses].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gong, LiJie; He, Yan; Tian, Peng; Yan, Yan

    2016-07-01

    To determine the effect of elastic strain rate ratio method and virtual touch tissue quantification (VTQ) on the diagnosis of breast masses.
 Sixty female patients with breast cancer, who received surgical treatment in Daqing Oilfield General Hospital, were enrolled. All patients signed the informed consent paperwork and they were treated by routine ultrasound examination, compression elastography (CE) examination, and VTQ examination in turn. Strain ratio (SR) was checked by CE and shear wave velocity (SWV) value was measured by VTQ. The diagnostic values of different methods were evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves in the diagnosis of benign and malignant breast tumors.
 The maximum diameter and SWV value of the benign tumors were lower than those of the malignant tumors, and the SR ratio of benign masses was higher than that of malignant tumors (Pbreast mass than that used alone.

  13. Strength and Absorption Rate of Compressed Stabilized Earth Bricks (CSEBs Due to Different Mixture Ratios and Degree of Compaction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdullah Abd Halid

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Compressed Stabilized Earth Brick (CSEB is produced by compressing a mixture of water with three main materials such as Ordinary Portland Cement (OPC, soil, and sand. It becomes popularfor its good strength, better insulation properties, and a sustainable product due to its easy production with low carbon emission and less skilled labour required. Different types of local soils usedwill produce CSEB of different physical properties in terms of its strength, durability, and water absorption rate. This study focuses on laterite soil taken from the surrounding local area in Parit Raja, Johor, and CSEB samples are produced based on prototype brick size 100×50×30 mm. The investigations are based on four different degree of compactions (i.e. 1500, 2000, 2500, and 3000 Psi and three different mix proportion ratios of cement:sand:laterite soil (i.e. 1:1:9, 1:2:8, 1:3:7. A total of 144 CSEB samples have been tested at 7 and 28 days curing periods to determine the compressive strength (BS 3921:1985 and water absorption rate (MS 76:1972. It was found that maximum compressive strength of CSEB was 14.68 N/mm2 for mixture ratio of 1:3:7 at 2500 Psi compaction. Whereas, the minimum strengthis 6.87 N/mm2 for 1:1:9mixture ratio at 1500 Psi. Meanwhile, the lowest water absorption was 12.35% for mixture ratio of 1:2:8 at 3000 Psi; while the 1:1:9 mixture ratio at 1500 Psi gave the highest rate of 16.81%. This study affirms that the sand content in the mixture and the degree of compaction would affect the value of compressive strength and water absorption of CSEB.

  14. Ratio and rate effects of 32P-triple superphosphate and phosphate rock mixtures on corn growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Franzini, Vinicius Ide; Mendes, Fernanda Latanze

    2009-01-01

    The availability of phosphorus (P) from 'Patos de Minas' phosphate rock (PR) can be improved if it is applied mixed with a water-soluble P source. The objective of this study was to evaluate 32 P as a tracer to quantify the effect of the ratio of mixtures of triple superphosphate (TSP) with PR and the rates of application on P availability from PR. Two experiments were conducted in a greenhouse utilizing corn (Zea mays L.) plants as test crop. In the first experiment, the P sources were applied at the rate of 90 mg P kg -1 soil either separately or as compacted mixtures in several TSP:PR ratios (100:0, 80:20, 60:40, 50:50, 40:60, 20:80 and 0:100 calculated on the basis of the total P content). In the second experiment, the TSP was applied alone or as 50:50 compacted mixtures with PR applied at four P rates (15, 30, 60 and 90 mg P kg -1 ) while the sole PR treatment was applied at the 90 mg kg -1 P rate . The mixture of PR with TSP improved the P recovery from PR in the corn plant and this effect increased proportionally to the TSP amounts in the mixture. When compared with the plant P recovery from TSP (10.52%), PR-P recovery (2.57%) was much lower even when mixed together in the ratio of 80% TSP: 20% PR. There was no difference in PR-P utilization by the corn plants with increasing P rates in the mixture (1:1 proportion). Therefore, PR-P availability is affected by the proportions of the mixtures with water soluble P, but not by P rates. (author)

  15. Ratio and rate effects of {sup 32}P-triple superphosphate and phosphate rock mixtures on corn growth

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Franzini, Vinicius Ide; Mendes, Fernanda Latanze [Escola Superior de Agricultura Luiz de Queiroz (ESALQ/USP), Piracicaba, SP (Brazil). Programa de Pos-Graduacao em Solos e Nutricao de Plantas; Muraoka, Takashi [Centro de Energia Nuclear na Agricultura (CENA-USP), Piracicaba, SP (Brazil)]. E-mail: muraoka@cena.usp.br

    2009-01-15

    The availability of phosphorus (P) from 'Patos de Minas' phosphate rock (PR) can be improved if it is applied mixed with a water-soluble P source. The objective of this study was to evaluate {sup 32}P as a tracer to quantify the effect of the ratio of mixtures of triple superphosphate (TSP) with PR and the rates of application on P availability from PR. Two experiments were conducted in a greenhouse utilizing corn (Zea mays L.) plants as test crop. In the first experiment, the P sources were applied at the rate of 90 mg P kg{sup -1} soil either separately or as compacted mixtures in several TSP:PR ratios (100:0, 80:20, 60:40, 50:50, 40:60, 20:80 and 0:100 calculated on the basis of the total P content). In the second experiment, the TSP was applied alone or as 50:50 compacted mixtures with PR applied at four P rates (15, 30, 60 and 90 mg P kg{sup -1}) while the sole PR treatment was applied at the 90 mg kg{sup -1}P rate . The mixture of PR with TSP improved the P recovery from PR in the corn plant and this effect increased proportionally to the TSP amounts in the mixture. When compared with the plant P recovery from TSP (10.52%), PR-P recovery (2.57%) was much lower even when mixed together in the ratio of 80% TSP: 20% PR. There was no difference in PR-P utilization by the corn plants with increasing P rates in the mixture (1:1 proportion). Therefore, PR-P availability is affected by the proportions of the mixtures with water soluble P, but not by P rates. (author)

  16. Measurement of Muscle Protein Fractional Synthetic Rate by Capillary Gas Chromatography/Combustion Isotope Ratio Mass Spectrometry

    OpenAIRE

    Yarasheski, Kevin E.; Smith, Kenneth; Rennie, Michael J.; Bier, Dennis M.

    1992-01-01

    The measurement of skeletal muscle protein fractional synthetic rate using an infusion of (1-13C)leucine and measuring the isotopic abundance of the tracer in skeletal muscle protein by preparative gas chromatography (GC)/ninhydrin isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS) is laborious and subject to errors owing to contamination by 12C. The purpose of this study was to compare muscle (13C)leucine enrichment measured with the conventional preparative GC/ninhydrin IRMS approach to a new, continuo...

  17. The influence of He/dpa ratio and displacement rate on microstructural evolution: a comparison of theory and experiment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Katoh, Yutai; Stoller, Roger E.; Kohno, Yutaka; Kohyama, Akira

    1994-01-01

    A kinetic model was developed to investigate the influence of the displacement rate and helium generation rate on microstructural evolution in austenitic stainless steels. The model integrates the rate equations describing the evolution of point defects, small point defect clusters, helium-vacancy clusters, and the larger cavity size distribution that is responsible for observable swelling. Cavity (bubble) nucleation is accounted for by the helium-vacancy cluster evolution, while void formation occurs when bubbles grow beyond a critical size in the larger cavity distribution. A series of ion irradiation experiments were used to both calibrate the model and to provide a comparison between model predictions and experimental observations. The experiments involved single and dual-beam irradiations of solution annealed AISI-316 stainless steel at 873 K. The displacement rates were in the range of 2x10 -3 to 1x10 -2 dpa/s and the helium-to-dpa ratios were in the range of 0 to 50 appm He/dpa. The maximum displacement dose was 25 dpa. The experiments revealed a significant effect of helium on both the dislocation structure and the cavity distribution. The model predictions of helium effects over a broad range of He/dpa ratios and displacement rates were consistent with experimental observations. ((orig.))

  18. Evaluation of the product ratio coherent model in forecasting mortality rates and life expectancy at births by States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shair, Syazreen Niza; Yusof, Aida Yuzi; Asmuni, Nurin Haniah

    2017-05-01

    Coherent mortality forecasting models have recently received increasing attention particularly in their application to sub-populations. The advantage of coherent models over independent models is the ability to forecast a non-divergent mortality for two or more sub-populations. One of the coherent models was recently developed by [1] known as the product-ratio model. This model is an extension version of the functional independent model from [2]. The product-ratio model has been applied in a developed country, Australia [1] and has been extended in a developing nation, Malaysia [3]. While [3] accounted for coherency of mortality rates between gender and ethnic group, the coherency between states in Malaysia has never been explored. This paper will forecast the mortality rates of Malaysian sub-populations according to states using the product ratio coherent model and its independent version— the functional independent model. The forecast accuracies of two different models are evaluated using the out-of-sample error measurements— the mean absolute forecast error (MAFE) for age-specific death rates and the mean forecast error (MFE) for the life expectancy at birth. We employ Malaysian mortality time series data from 1991 to 2014, segregated by age, gender and states.

  19. Recovering Risk-Neutral Densities from Brazilian Interest Rate Options

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Renato Haas Ornelas

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Building Risk-Neutral Density (RND from options data is one useful way for extracting market expectations about a financial variable. For a sample of IDI (Brazilian Interbank Deposit Rate Index options from 1998 to 2009, this paper estimates the option-implied Risk-Neutral Densities for the Brazilian short rate using three methods: Shimko, Mixture of Two Log-Normals and Generalized Beta of Second Kind. Our in-sample goodness-of-fit evaluation shows that the Mixture of Log-Normals method provides better fitting to option’s data than the other two methods. The shape of log-normal distributions seems to fit well to the mean-reversal dynamics of Brazilian interest rates. We have also calculated the RND implied Skewness, showing how it could have provided market early-warning signals of the monetary policy outcomes in 2002 and 2003. Overall, Risk-Neutral Densities implied on IDI options showed to be a useful tool for extracting market expectations about future outcomes of the monetary policy.

  20. Suicide rates and risk factors among Korean cancer patients, 1993-2005.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahn, Eunmi; Shin, Dong Wook; Cho, Sung-Il; Park, Sohee; Won, Young-Joo; Yun, Young Ho

    2010-08-01

    As the number of cancer survivors increases, suicide risk approaches that of the general population. We therefore investigated suicide rates and risk factors among Korean cancer patients. We observed 816,295 cancer patients for 3,007,294 person-years from 1993 to 2005 through a nationwide cancer registry. We calculated their sex- and age-standardized mortality ratios (SMR) and studied suicide risk factors using rate ratios (RR) based on a log-linear Poisson regression model. Compared with the Korean general population, the suicide rate among cancer patients was high [SMR, 2.00; 95% confidence interval (95% CI), 1.91-2.08]. The rates were highest in the year following the cancer diagnosis (SMR, 3.45; 95% CI, 3.19-3.73) and were still elevated 5 years later (SMR, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.12-1.36). The clinical groups at highest risk were male pancreas cancer patients (SMR, 6.01; 95% CI, 4.33-8.33) and female lung cancer patients (SMR, 3.55; 95% CI, 2.55-4.94). The sociodemographic groups at highest risk were those who had no spouse versus those who were married (RR, 1.50; 95% CI, 1.35-1.68), those who were not employed versus those who were (RR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.26-1.54), and those who did not have high school education versus those who had (RR, 1.52; 95% CI, 1.30-1.79). Korean cancer patients are at increased risk of suicide. Both clinical and sociodemographic factors play a role. There is a need for social support and suicide prevention strategies for cancer survivors in Korea. (c)2010 AACR.

  1. Ratio of thyroid radioiodine uptake calculated via the physic decay rate of the standard radioactive source: a preliminary study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zeng Yu; Zhou Luyi

    2010-01-01

    Objectives: To compare the difference of the ratio of thyroid radioiodine ( 131 I) uptake calculated by actually measuring counts of the standard radioactive source(method 1) and by computing counts of the standard radioactive source via physic half life of 131 I (method 2). Methods: Two hundred and nine consecutive patients with Graves' Disease were prospectively recruited. The ratio of thyroid 131 I uptake was calculated by two methods at 4 h and 24 h after administration of 1.48 MBq 131 I, respectively. Paired t-test was used to compare the difference between the two methods. Results: The ratio of thyroid 131 I uptake at 4h was (32±16)% and ( 35±10)% (t=1.98, P=0.20), at 24h (72±19)% and (69±24)% ( t=1.49, P=0.23), respectively, by the two methods. Conclusion: To calculate the ratio of thyroid 131 I uptake via the physic half life of the standard radioactive resource is feasible, and can both reduce the risk of ionizing radiation to technical staff and act as verifying method for quality control of thyroid function equipment. (authors)

  2. Optimal Chest Compression Rate and Compression to Ventilation Ratio in Delivery Room Resuscitation: Evidence from Newborn Piglets and Neonatal Manikins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solevåg, Anne Lee; Schmölzer, Georg M.

    2017-01-01

    Cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) duration until return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) influences survival and neurologic outcomes after delivery room (DR) CPR. High quality chest compressions (CC) improve cerebral and myocardial perfusion. Improved myocardial perfusion increases the likelihood of a faster ROSC. Thus, optimizing CC quality may improve outcomes both by preserving cerebral blood flow during CPR and by reducing the recovery time. CC quality is determined by rate, CC to ventilation (C:V) ratio, and applied force, which are influenced by the CC provider. Thus, provider performance should be taken into account. Neonatal resuscitation guidelines recommend a 3:1 C:V ratio. CCs should be delivered at a rate of 90/min synchronized with ventilations at a rate of 30/min to achieve a total of 120 events/min. Despite a lack of scientific evidence supporting this, the investigation of alternative CC interventions in human neonates is ethically challenging. Also, the infrequent occurrence of extensive CPR measures in the DR make randomized controlled trials difficult to perform. Thus, many biomechanical aspects of CC have been investigated in animal and manikin models. Despite mathematical and physiological rationales that higher rates and uninterrupted CC improve CPR hemodynamics, studies indicate that provider fatigue is more pronounced when CC are performed continuously compared to when a pause is inserted after every third CC as currently recommended. A higher rate (e.g., 120/min) is also more fatiguing, which affects CC quality. In post-transitional piglets with asphyxia-induced cardiac arrest, there was no benefit of performing continuous CC at a rate of 90/min. Not only rate but duty cycle, i.e., the duration of CC/total cycle time, is a known determinant of CC effectiveness. However, duty cycle cannot be controlled with manual CC. Mechanical/automated CC in neonatal CPR has not been explored, and feedback systems are under-investigated in this

  3. Risk Analysis using Corrosion Rate Parameter on Gas Transmission Pipeline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sasikirono, B.; Kim, S. J.; Haryadi, G. D.; Huda, A.

    2017-05-01

    In the oil and gas industry, the pipeline is a major component in the transmission and distribution process of oil and gas. Oil and gas distribution process sometimes performed past the pipeline across the various types of environmental conditions. Therefore, in the transmission and distribution process of oil and gas, a pipeline should operate safely so that it does not harm the surrounding environment. Corrosion is still a major cause of failure in some components of the equipment in a production facility. In pipeline systems, corrosion can cause failures in the wall and damage to the pipeline. Therefore it takes care and periodic inspections or checks on the pipeline system. Every production facility in an industry has a level of risk for damage which is a result of the opportunities and consequences of damage caused. The purpose of this research is to analyze the level of risk of 20-inch Natural Gas Transmission Pipeline using Risk-based inspection semi-quantitative based on API 581 associated with the likelihood of failure and the consequences of the failure of a component of the equipment. Then the result is used to determine the next inspection plans. Nine pipeline components were observed, such as a straight pipes inlet, connection tee, and straight pipes outlet. The risk assessment level of the nine pipeline’s components is presented in a risk matrix. The risk level of components is examined at medium risk levels. The failure mechanism that is used in this research is the mechanism of thinning. Based on the results of corrosion rate calculation, remaining pipeline components age can be obtained, so the remaining lifetime of pipeline components are known. The calculation of remaining lifetime obtained and the results vary for each component. Next step is planning the inspection of pipeline components by NDT external methods.

  4. Effect of C/N ratio, aeration rate and moisture content on ammonia and greenhouse gas emission during the composting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Tao; Schuchardt, Frank; Li, Guoxue; Guo, Rui; Zhao, Yuanqiu

    2011-01-01

    Gaseous emission (N2O, CH4 and NH3) from composting can be an important source of anthropogenic greenhouse gas and air pollution. A laboratory scale orthogonal experiment was conducted to estimate the effects of C/N ratio, aeration rate and initial moisture content on gaseous emission during the composting of pig faeces from Chinese Ganqinfen system. The results showed that about 23.9% to 45.6% of total organic carbon (TOC) was lost in the form of CO2 and 0.8% to 7.5% of TOC emitted as CH4. Most of the nitrogen was lost in the form of NH3, which account for 9.6% to 32.4% of initial nitrogen. N2O was also an important way of nitrogen losses and 1.5% to 7.3% of initial total nitrogen was lost as it. Statistic analysis showed that the aeration rate is the most important factor which could affect the NH3 (p = 0.0189), CH4 (p = 0.0113) and N2O (p = 0.0493) emissions significantly. Higher aeration rates reduce the CH4 emission but increase the NH3 and N2O losses. C/N ratio could affect the NH3 (p = 0.0442) and CH4 (p = 0.0246) emissions significantly, but not the N2O. Lower C/N ratio caused higher NH3 and CH4 emissions. The initial moisture content can not influence the gaseous emission significantly. Most treatments were matured after 37 days, except a trial with high moisture content and a low C/N ratio.

  5. Educational Attainment, Teacher-Student Ratios, and the Risk of Adult Incarceration among U.S. Birth Cohorts since 1910

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arum, Richard; LaFree, Gary

    2008-01-01

    Little is known about the relationship between school characteristics, such as teacher-student ratios, and the risk of incarceration in adulthood. Educational skeptics argue that investment in schools has little effect on outcomes, such as criminality or the risk of incarceration, because criminal propensities are fixed at an early age and…

  6. Reactivity and reaction rate ratio changes with moderator voidage in a light water high converter reactor lattice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chawla, R.; Gmuer, K.; Hager, H.; Seiler, R.

    1986-01-01

    Integral reaction rate ratios and other k ∞ related parameters have been measured in the first three cores of the experimental program on light water high converter reactor (LWHCR) test lattices in the PROTEUS reactor. The reference tight-pitch lattice consisted of two rod types, with an average fissile-plutonium enrichment of 6% and a fuel/moderator ratio of 2.0. The moderators were H 2 O, Dowtherm (simulating an H 2 O voidage of 42.5%), and air (100% void). Comparisons of the measured parameters have been made with calculational results based mainly on the use of two separate codes and their associated data libraries, namely, WIMS-D and EPRI-CPM. A reconstruction of individual components of the k-infinity void coefficient has been carried out on the basis of the measured changes with voidage of the various reaction rate ratios, as well as of k-infinity itself. The subsequent more detailed comparisons between experiment and calculation should provide a useful basis for resolving the conflicting calculational results that have been reported in the past for the void coefficient characteristics of LWHCRs. (author)

  7. Risk Measure and Early-Warning System of China's Stock Market Based on Price-Earnings Ratio and Price-to-Book Ratio

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rongda Chen

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Based on the actual situation of China's stock market, this paper proposes a method for measuring the stock market's risk and early-warning methods which are based on price-to-earnings ratio and price-to-book ratio. The study found that the method of VaR can capture the bigger daily drops in a period, and if the drop is at the periodical top of the index, the probability of a sharp index decline will be very high. It also confirmed that the method is feasible and practical for people to use. In the long run, this method really can send early-warning signals of sharp decline; the warning levels increase as the index rises. The study also found that index will not fall after every warning but will continue going forward because of inertia, particularly during a big trend.

  8. Increased circulating endothelial apoptotic microparticle to endothelial progenitor cell ratio is associated with subsequent decline in glomerular filtration rate in hypertensive patients.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chien-Yi Hsu

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Recent research indicates hypertensive patients with microalbuminuria have decreased endothelial progenitor cells (EPCs and increased levels of endothelial apoptotic microparticles (EMP. However, whether these changes are related to a subsequent decline in glomerular filtration rate (GFR remains unclear. METHODS AND RESULTS: We enrolled totally 100 hypertensive out-patients with eGFR ≥ 30 mL/min/1.73 m(2. The mean annual rate of GFR decline (△GFR/y was -1.49 ± 3.26 mL/min/1.73 m(2 per year during the follow-up period (34 ± 6 months. Flow cytometry was used to assess circulating EPC (CD34(+/KDR(+ and EMP levels (CD31(+/annexin V(+ in peripheral blood. The △GFR/y was correlated with the EMP to EPC ratio (r= -0.465, p<0.001, microalbuminuria (r= -0.329, p=0.001, and the Framingham risk score (r= -0.245, p=0.013. When we divided the patients into 4 groups according to the EMP to EPC ratio, there was an association between the EMP to EPC ratio and the ΔGFR/y (mean ΔGFR/y: 0.08 ± 3.04 vs. -0.50 ± 2.84 vs. -1.25 ± 2.49 vs. -4.42 ± 2.82, p<0.001. Multivariate analysis indicated that increased EMP to EPC ratio is an independent predictor of ΔeGFR/y. CONCLUSIONS: An increased circulating EMP to EPC ratio is associated with subsequent decline in GFR in hypertensive patients, which suggests endothelial damage with reduced vascular repair capacity may contribute to further deterioration of renal function in patients with hypertension.

  9. [Morbidity rate of obesity in children in ukraine. Overweight as noncontagious disease risk factor].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Заболотна, Ірина Е

    The upsurge of prevalence rate of obesity and overweight that in the majority of cases traces back to childhood is a risk factor of the most common noncontagious diseases in adults. The aim was to analyze prevalence of obesity in children in Ukraine and to conduct the pilot study of medical condition of overweight children. Official state statistics of prevalence rate of obesity in kids and screening data of anthropometric characteristics, arterial tension levels, physical performance decrement and medical condition of children (boys - 50, girls - 90, average age - 15,1±0,1 years) was used in research. Data calculation performed by Statistica v. 6.0 software. Over the past few decades, the morbidity rate of obesity in children in Ukraine has greatly increased, especially in year class 15-17. Insufficient diagnosis of obesity in children is the consequence of the inadequacy of the existing system of preventive care and monitoring survey of decease risk factors. Children with body mass index (BMI) above normal have a risk of work decrement in 5,2 times (odds ratio, OR=5,2, CI95%: 1,7-10,6). Such children have higher risk of development of the diseases of the respiratory system (OR=8,1; CI95%: 3,9-13,6) and allergic dermatitis (OR=7,7; CI95%: 3,7-12,9). The odds ratio of arterial hypertension in such children is equal to 3,46±0,3 (95%CI: 2,0-5,9). According to prediction calculations, the situation with the increase of prevalence rate of obesity in children in Ukraine is unfavorable. The introduction of measures aimed at finding children with obesity, their registration and monitoring of patients' health with due regard to decease risk factors at the primary care level would conduce to improving prevention of obesity and prevention of alimentary diseases progression.

  10. Single nucleotide polymorphism barcoding to evaluate oral cancer risk using odds ratio-based genetic algorithms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheng-Hong Yang

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Cancers often involve the synergistic effects of gene–gene interactions, but identifying these interactions remains challenging. Here, we present an odds ratio-based genetic algorithm (OR-GA that is able to solve the problems associated with the simultaneous analysis of multiple independent single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs that are associated with oral cancer. The SNP interactions between four SNPs—namely rs1799782, rs2040639, rs861539, rs2075685, and belonging to four genes (XRCC1, XRCC2, XRCC3, and XRCC4—were tested in this study, respectively. The GA decomposes the SNPs sets into different SNP combinations with their corresponding genotypes (called SNP barcodes. The GA can effectively identify a specific SNP barcode that has an optimized fitness value and uses this to calculate the difference between the case and control groups. The SNP barcodes with a low fitness value are naturally removed from the population. Using two to four SNPs, the best SNP barcodes with maximum differences in occurrence between the case and control groups were generated by GA algorithm. Subsequently, the OR provides a quantitative measure of the multiple SNP synergies between the oral cancer and control groups by calculating the risk related to the best SNP barcodes and others. When these were compared to their corresponding non-SNP barcodes, the estimated ORs for oral cancer were found to be great than 1 [approx. 1.72–2.23; confidence intervals (CIs: 0.94–5.30, p < 0.03–0.07] for various specific SNP barcodes with two to four SNPs. In conclusion, the proposed OR-GA method successfully generates SNP barcodes, which allow oral cancer risk to be evaluated and in the process the OR-GA method identifies possible SNP–SNP interactions.

  11. Basal metabolic rate and risk-taking behaviour in birds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Møller, A P

    2009-12-01

    Basal metabolic rate (BMR) constitutes the minimal metabolic rate in the zone of thermo-neutrality, where heat production is not elevated for temperature regulation. BMR thus constitutes the minimum metabolic rate that is required for maintenance. Interspecific variation in BMR in birds is correlated with food habits, climate, habitat, flight activity, torpor, altitude, and migration, although the selective forces involved in the evolution of these presumed adaptations are not always obvious. I suggest that BMR constitutes the minimum level required for maintenance, and that variation in this minimum level reflects the fitness costs and benefits in terms of ability to respond to selective agents like predators, implying that an elevated level of BMR is a cost of wariness towards predators. This hypothesis predicts a positive relationship between BMR and measures of risk taking such as flight initiation distance (FID) of individuals approached by a potential predator. Consistent with this suggestion, I show in a comparative analysis of 76 bird species that species with higher BMR for their body mass have longer FID when approached by a potential predator. This effect was independent of potentially confounding variables and similarity among species due to common phylogenetic descent. These results imply that BMR is positively related to risk-taking behaviour, and that predation constitutes a neglected factor in the evolution of BMR.

  12. Multifractality and value-at-risk forecasting of exchange rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Batten, Jonathan A.; Kinateder, Harald; Wagner, Niklas

    2014-05-01

    This paper addresses market risk prediction for high frequency foreign exchange rates under nonlinear risk scaling behaviour. We use a modified version of the multifractal model of asset returns (MMAR) where trading time is represented by the series of volume ticks. Our dataset consists of 138,418 5-min round-the-clock observations of EUR/USD spot quotes and trading ticks during the period January 5, 2006 to December 31, 2007. Considering fat-tails, long-range dependence as well as scale inconsistency with the MMAR, we derive out-of-sample value-at-risk (VaR) forecasts and compare our approach to historical simulation as well as a benchmark GARCH(1,1) location-scale VaR model. Our findings underline that the multifractal properties in EUR/USD returns in fact have notable risk management implications. The MMAR approach is a parsimonious model which produces admissible VaR forecasts at the 12-h forecast horizon. For the daily horizon, the MMAR outperforms both alternatives based on conditional as well as unconditional coverage statistics.

  13. Increased Ratio of Electron Transport to Net Assimilation Rate Supports Elevated Isoprenoid Emission Rate in Eucalypts under Drought1[W][OPEN

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dani, Kaidala Ganesha Srikanta; Jamie, Ian McLeod; Prentice, Iain Colin; Atwell, Brian James

    2014-01-01

    Plants undergoing heat and low-CO2 stresses emit large amounts of volatile isoprenoids compared with those in stress-free conditions. One hypothesis posits that the balance between reducing power availability and its use in carbon assimilation determines constitutive isoprenoid emission rates in plants and potentially even their maximum emission capacity under brief periods of stress. To test this, we used abiotic stresses to manipulate the availability of reducing power. Specifically, we examined the effects of mild to severe drought on photosynthetic electron transport rate (ETR) and net carbon assimilation rate (NAR) and the relationship between estimated energy pools and constitutive volatile isoprenoid emission rates in two species of eucalypts: Eucalyptus occidentalis (drought tolerant) and Eucalyptus camaldulensis (drought sensitive). Isoprenoid emission rates were insensitive to mild drought, and the rates increased when the decline in NAR reached a certain species-specific threshold. ETR was sustained under drought and the ETR-NAR ratio increased, driving constitutive isoprenoid emission until severe drought caused carbon limitation of the methylerythritol phosphate pathway. The estimated residual reducing power unused for carbon assimilation, based on the energetic status model, significantly correlated with constitutive isoprenoid emission rates across gradients of drought (r2 > 0.8) and photorespiratory stress (r2 > 0.9). Carbon availability could critically limit emission rates under severe drought and photorespiratory stresses. Under most instances of moderate abiotic stress levels, increased isoprenoid emission rates compete with photorespiration for the residual reducing power not invested in carbon assimilation. A similar mechanism also explains the individual positive effects of low-CO2, heat, and drought stresses on isoprenoid emission. PMID:25139160

  14. Families at financial risk due to high ratio of out-of-pocket health care expenditures to total income.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, Kevin J; Dismuke, Clara E

    2010-05-01

    High out-of-pocket expenditures for health care can put individuals and families at financial risk. Several groups, including racial/ethnic minority groups, the uninsured, rural residents, and those in poorer health are at risk for this increased burden. The analysis utilized 2004-2005 MEPS data. The dependent variables were the out-of-pocket health care spending to total income ratios for total spending, office-based visits, and prescription drugs. Multivariate analyses with instrumental variables controlled for respondent characteristics. Gender, age, rurality, insurance coverage, health status, and health care utilization were all associated with higher out-of-pocket to income ratios. Certain groups, such as women, the elderly, those in poor health, and rural residents, are at a greater financial risk due to their higher out-of-pocket to total income spending ratios. Policymakers must be aware of these increased risks in order to provide adequate resources and targeted interventions to alleviate some of this burden.

  15. 8C.01: SFLT-1 AND PLGF MEASUREMENTS AND THEIR RATIO FOR THE DIAGNOSIS AND PROGNOSIS OF PREECLAMPSIA IN A HIGH-RISK COHORT.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saleh, L; Verdonk, K; Danser, A H J; Steegers, E A P; Russcher, H; van den Meiracker, A H; Visser, W

    2015-06-01

    The soluble Fms-like tyrosine kinase 1 (sFlt-1)/placental growth factor (PlGF) ratio has been introduced as a biomarker for diagnosing preeclampsia (PE) and the prediction of adverse pregnancy outcome. In a cohort of pregnant women with PE or at high risk of PE, the additive value of the sFlt-1/PlGF ratio for diagnosing PE and prediction of adverse pregnancy outcomes was investigated. From September 2011 until August 2013 patients with suspected or confirmed clinical PE were recruited at the Erasmus MC. At time of admission, blood for measurement of sFlt-1 and PlGF was obtained. A sFlt-1/PlGF ratio of >85 was considered suggestive for PE. Clinical characteristics and pregnancy outcomes were retrieved from medical records. The clinical diagnosis of PE was made based on the ISSHP criteria, whereas the fullPIERS definition was used for the rating of adverse pregnancy outcomes. A total of 96 patients were included. Of the patients, 53 (55%) met the clinical criteria of PE at time of blood sampling. In 11% of these patients (n = 6) the ratio was 85 (false positive), resulting in positive and negative predictive values of 89% and 86% respectively. Three patients without clinical PE, but with a positive ratio, developed superimposed PE and 2 developed an adverse pregnancy outcome. In 2 of the 6 patients with clinical PE but a negative ratio, an adverse pregnancy outcome was encountered. Using a binary regression model with adjustment for gestational age < 34 weeks, clinical PE was associated with a 9 times increased risk for an adverse outcome, while this was 29 times for an elevated ratio (P = 0.036). The additive value of an increased ratio for diagnosing PE is limited since most patients with clinical PE also have a positive ratio. An elevated ratio is superior to the clinical diagnosis of PE for predicting an adverse pregnancy outcome.

  16. INFLUENCE OF THE COOLING RATE AND THE BLEND RATIO ON THE PHYSICAL STABILTIY OF CO-AMORPHOUS NAPROXEN/INDOMETHACIN

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Beyer, Andreas; Grohganz, Holger; Löbmann, Korbinian

    2016-01-01

    Co-amorphisation represents a promising approach to increase the physical stability and dissolution rate of amorphous active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) as an alternative to polymer glass solutions. For amorphous and co-amorphous systems, it is reported that the preparation method and the b......Co-amorphisation represents a promising approach to increase the physical stability and dissolution rate of amorphous active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) as an alternative to polymer glass solutions. For amorphous and co-amorphous systems, it is reported that the preparation method...... and the blend ratio play major roles with regard to the resulting physical stability. Therefore, in the present study, co-amorphous naproxen-indomethacin (NAP/IND) was prepared by melt-quenching at three different cooling rates and at ten different NAP/IND blend ratios. The samples were analyzed using XRPD...... and FTIR, both directly after preparation and during storage to investigate their physical stabilities. All cooling methods led to fully amorphous samples, but with significantly different physical stabilities. Samples prepared by fast cooling had a higher degree of crystallinity after 300 d of storage...

  17. Bilastine: a new antihistamine with an optimal benefit-to-risk ratio for safety during driving.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jáuregui, Ignacio; Ramaekers, Johannes G; Yanai, Kazuhiko; Farré, Magí; Redondo, Esther; Valiente, Román; Labeaga, Luis

    2016-01-01

    Rational selection of a second-generation H1-antihistamine requires efficacy and safety considerations, particularly regarding central nervous system (CNS) effects (cognitive and psychomotor function), potential for driving impairment, minimal sedative effects and a lack of interactions. This review evaluates the key safety features of the non-sedating antihistamine, bilastine, during driving and in preventing road traffic accidents. Among the second-generation H1-antihistamines, sedative effects which can affect cognitive and psychomotor performance, and possibly driving ability, may not be similar. Bilastine is absorbed rapidly, undergoes no hepatic metabolism or cytochrome P450 interaction (minimal drug-drug interaction potential), and is a substrate for P-glycoprotein (limiting CNS entry). Positron emission tomography showed that, compared with other second-generation H1-antihistamines, bilastine has the lowest cerebral histamine H1-receptor occupancy. Bilastine 20 mg once daily (therapeutic dose) is non-sedating, does not enhance the effects of alcohol or CNS sedatives, does not impair driving performance and has at least similar efficacy as other second-generation H1-antihistamines in the treatment of allergic rhinoconjunctivitis and urticaria. Current evidence shows that bilastine has an optimal benefit-to-risk ratio, meeting all conditions for contributing to safety in drivers who need antihistamines, and hence for being considered as an antihistamine of choice for drivers.

  18. Effects of mix ratio, moisture content and aeration rate on sulfur odor emissions during pig manure composting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zang, Bing; Li, Shuyan; Michel, Frederick; Li, Guoxue; Luo, Yuan; Zhang, Difang; Li, Yangyang

    2016-10-01

    Sulfur compounds in swine manure can cause odor emissions during composting if conditions are not conducive to their rapid oxidation and degradation. In this study, the effects of controllable composting process variables on sulfur odor emissions were investigated. These included pig manure to corn stalk mix ratio (0.7:1, 1.5:1 and 2.2:1dw basis), initial moisture content (60%, 65%, 70% and 75%) and aeration rate (1.0, 2.0, 3.0 and 4.0m(3)m(-3)h(-1)). The compounds measured were carbonyl sulfide, carbon disulfide, hydrogen sulfide, methyl mercaptan, ethyl mercaptan, diethyl sulfide, dimethyl sulfide (Me2S) and dimethyl disulfide (Me2SS). The results showed that total sulfur losses ranged from 3.9% to 18.3% after 26days of composting. Me2S and Me2SS were the primary (>59.61%) sulfur compounds released during this period. After turning, emission rates of both Me2S and Me2SS increased. Emissions of the other six sulfur compounds were low and inconsistent during composting. Within the compost, feedstock mix ratio significantly influenced the concentration of Me2SS, while aeration rate significantly affected Me2S concentration (pMoisture content did not have a significant effect on the concentrations of either of these two compounds. Concentrations of sulfur odor compounds were the lowest at the highest aeration rate. Therefore, high aeration rates during the thermophilic phase, especially after turning, are recommended to minimize sulfur odors produced during swine manure composting. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Worst-Case Portfolio Optimization under Stochastic Interest Rate Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tina Engler

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available We investigate a portfolio optimization problem under the threat of a market crash, where the interest rate of the bond is modeled as a Vasicek process, which is correlated with the stock price process. We adopt a non-probabilistic worst-case approach for the height and time of the market crash. On a given time horizon [0; T], we then maximize the investor’s expected utility of terminal wealth in the worst-case crash scenario. Our main result is an explicit characterization of the worst-case optimal portfolio strategy for the class of HARA (hyperbolic absolute risk aversion utility functions.

  20. Direct risk standardisation: a new method for comparing casemix adjusted event rates using complex models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholl, Jon; Jacques, Richard M; Campbell, Michael J

    2013-10-29

    Comparison of outcomes between populations or centres may be confounded by any casemix differences and standardisation is carried out to avoid this. However, when the casemix adjustment models are large and complex, direct standardisation has been described as "practically impossible", and indirect standardisation may lead to unfair comparisons. We propose a new method of directly standardising for risk rather than standardising for casemix which overcomes these problems. Using a casemix model which is the same model as would be used in indirect standardisation, the risk in individuals is estimated. Risk categories are defined, and event rates in each category for each centre to be compared are calculated. A weighted sum of the risk category specific event rates is then calculated. We have illustrated this method using data on 6 million admissions to 146 hospitals in England in 2007/8 and an existing model with over 5000 casemix combinations, and a second dataset of 18,668 adult emergency admissions to 9 centres in the UK and overseas and a published model with over 20,000 casemix combinations and a continuous covariate. Substantial differences between conventional directly casemix standardised rates and rates from direct risk standardisation (DRS) were found. Results based on DRS were very similar to Standardised Mortality Ratios (SMRs) obtained from indirect standardisation, with similar standard errors. Direct risk standardisation using our proposed method is as straightforward as using conventional direct or indirect standardisation, always enables fair comparisons of performance to be made, can use continuous casemix covariates, and was found in our examples to have similar standard errors to the SMR. It should be preferred when there is a risk that conventional direct or indirect standardisation will lead to unfair comparisons.

  1. Risks to health from radiation at low dose rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gentner, N.E.; Osborne, R.V.

    1997-01-01

    Our focus is on whether, using a balance-of-evidence approach, it is possible to say that at a low enough dose, or at a sufficiently low dose rate, radiation risk reduces to zero in a population. We conclude that insufficient evidence exists at present to support such a conclusion. In part this reflects statistical limitations at low doses, and in part (although mechanisms unquestionably exist to protect us against much of the damage induced by ionizing radiation) the biological heterogeneity of human populations, which means these mechanisms do not act in all members of the population at all times. If it is going to be possible to demonstrate that low doses are less dangerous than we presently assume, the evidence, paradoxically, will likely come from studies of higher dose and dose rate scenarios than are encountered occupationally. (author)

  2. Risk Factors Influencing Conception Rate in Holstein Heifers before Artificial Insemination or Embryo Transfer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Yusuf

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to show the risk factors affecting the conception rate in Holstein heifers after synchronization of estrus. A total of 275 Holstein heifers housed in a free barn were used for the experiment. The herd was visited regularly at four week intervals for synchronization of estrus using Heatsynch and CIDR-Heatsynch protocols. A group of four to 14 animals, depending on the availability, were referred to the experiment at each visit. Estrus induction rates in the two protocols were 93.9% and 94.9%, respectively. There was no difference in the conception rate between the two protocols. Conception rate after artificial insemination (AI or embryo transfer (ET were 46.3% and 51.4%, respectively. The risk factors affecting conception rate in heifers were daily weight gain (odds ratio [OR]= 4.673; P= 0.036 and body condition score (BCS (OR= 3.642; P= 0.018. Furthermore, estrus synchronization protocol (OR= 1.774; P= 0.083 and the absence of corpus luteum (CL at the initiation of treatment (OR= 0.512; P= 0.061 had a tendency to affect the conception rate, while age (OR= 0.715; P= 0.008 was a protective factor to conception rate.  In conclusion, positive daily weight gain before AI or ET, higher BCS, younger age, and the presence of CL at the initiation of estrus synchronization in dairy heifers increased the likelihood to conceive.

  3. Modelling Counterparty Credit Risk in Czech Interest Rate Swaps

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lenka Křivánková

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available According to the Basel Committee’s estimate, three quarters of counterparty credit risk losses during the financial crisis in 2008 originate from credit valuation adjustment’s losses and not from actual defaults. Therefore, from 2015, the Third Basel Accord (EU, 2013a and (EU, 2013b instructed banks to calculate the capital requirement for the risk of credit valuation adjustment (CVA. Banks are trying to model CVA to hold the prescribed standards and also reach the lowest possible impact on their profit. In this paper, we try to model CVA using methods that are in compliance with the prescribed standards and also achieve the smallest possible impact on the bank’s earnings. To do so, a data set of interest rate swaps from 2015 is used. The interest rate term structure is simulated using the Hull-White one-factor model and Monte Carlo methods. Then, the probability of default for each counterparty is constructed. A safe level of CVA is reached in spite of the calculated the CVA achieving a lower level than CVA previously used by the bank. This allows a reduction of capital requirements for banks.

  4. No Evidence for a Relationship Between Hair Testosterone Concentrations and 2D:4D Ratio or Risk Taking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard Ronay

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Using a recently developed alternative assay procedure to measure hormone levels from hair samples, we examined the relationships between testosterone, cortisol, 2D:4D ratio, overconfidence and risk taking. A total of 162 (53 male participants provided a 3 cm sample of hair, a scanned image of their right and left hands from which we determined 2D:4D ratios, and completed measures of overconfidence and behavioral risk taking. While our sample size for males was less than ideal, our results revealed no evidence for a relationship between hair testosterone concentrations, 2D:4D ratios and risk taking. No relationships with overconfidence emerged. Partially consistent with the Dual Hormone Hypothesis, we did find evidence for the interacting effect of testosterone and cortisol on risk taking but only in men. Hair testosterone concentrations were positively related to risk taking when levels of hair cortisol concentrations were low, in men. Our results lend support to the suggestion that endogenous testosterone and 2D:4D ratio are unrelated and might then exert diverging activating vs. organizing effects on behavior. Comparing our results to those reported in the existing literature we speculate that behavioral correlates of testosterone such as direct effects on risk taking may be more sensitive to state-based fluctuations than baseline levels of testosterone.

  5. The Effect of Feed to Inoculums Ratio on Biogas Production Rate from Cattle Manure Using Rumen Fluid as Inoculums

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Sunarso

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available In this study, rumen fluid of animal ruminant was used as inoculums to increase biogas production rate from cattle manure at mesophilic condition. A series of laboratory experiments using 400 ml biodigester were performed in batch operation mode. Given 100 grams of fresh cattle manure was fed to each biodigester and mixed with rumen fluid and tap water resulting five different feed to inoculum (F/I ratios (i.e. 17.64, 23.51, 35.27, and 70.54. The operating temperatures were varied at room temperature. The results showed that the rumen fluid inoculated to biodigester significantly effected the biogas production. Rumen fluid inoculums caused biogas production rate and efficiency increase more than two times in compare to manure substrate without rumen fluid inoculums. At four F/Is tested, after 80 days digestion, the biogas yield were 191, 162, 144 and 112 mL/g VS, respectively. About 80% of the biogas production was obtained during the first 40 days of digestion. The best performance of biogas production will be obtained if F/I ratio is in the range of 17.64 to 35.27 (correspond to 25 – 50 % of rumen fluid. The future work will be carried out to study the dynamics of biogas production if both the rumen fluid inoculums and manure are fed in the continuous system

  6. Relative Citation Ratio (RCR): A New Metric That Uses Citation Rates to Measure Influence at the Article Level.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hutchins, B Ian; Yuan, Xin; Anderson, James M; Santangelo, George M

    2016-09-01

    Despite their recognized limitations, bibliometric assessments of scientific productivity have been widely adopted. We describe here an improved method to quantify the influence of a research article by making novel use of its co-citation network to field-normalize the number of citations it has received. Article citation rates are divided by an expected citation rate that is derived from performance of articles in the same field and benchmarked to a peer comparison group. The resulting Relative Citation Ratio is article level and field independent and provides an alternative to the invalid practice of using journal impact factors to identify influential papers. To illustrate one application of our method, we analyzed 88,835 articles published between 2003 and 2010 and found that the National Institutes of Health awardees who authored those papers occupy relatively stable positions of influence across all disciplines. We demonstrate that the values generated by this method strongly correlate with the opinions of subject matter experts in biomedical research and suggest that the same approach should be generally applicable to articles published in all areas of science. A beta version of iCite, our web tool for calculating Relative Citation Ratios of articles listed in PubMed, is available at https://icite.od.nih.gov.

  7. Relative Citation Ratio (RCR: A New Metric That Uses Citation Rates to Measure Influence at the Article Level.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B Ian Hutchins

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Despite their recognized limitations, bibliometric assessments of scientific productivity have been widely adopted. We describe here an improved method to quantify the influence of a research article by making novel use of its co-citation network to field-normalize the number of citations it has received. Article citation rates are divided by an expected citation rate that is derived from performance of articles in the same field and benchmarked to a peer comparison group. The resulting Relative Citation Ratio is article level and field independent and provides an alternative to the invalid practice of using journal impact factors to identify influential papers. To illustrate one application of our method, we analyzed 88,835 articles published between 2003 and 2010 and found that the National Institutes of Health awardees who authored those papers occupy relatively stable positions of influence across all disciplines. We demonstrate that the values generated by this method strongly correlate with the opinions of subject matter experts in biomedical research and suggest that the same approach should be generally applicable to articles published in all areas of science. A beta version of iCite, our web tool for calculating Relative Citation Ratios of articles listed in PubMed, is available at https://icite.od.nih.gov.

  8. Hospital ownership: a risk factor for nosocomial infection rates?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schröder, C; Behnke, M; Geffers, C; Gastmeier, P

    2018-03-26

    In some countries, a relationship between hospital ownership and the occurrence of healthcare-associated infection (HCAI) rates has been described. To investigate the association between hospital ownership and occurrence of HCAI in Germany. Five different components of the German national nosocomial infection surveillance system were analysed with regard to the influence of hospital ownership in the period 2014-2016. Endpoints included ventilator-associated pneumonia, central-venous-catheter-associated bloodstream infections, urinary-catheter-associated urinary tract infections, surgical site infections (SSI) following hip prosthesis and colon surgery, meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA), Clostridium difficile infections (CDI) and hand rub consumption per 1000 patient-days. Three hospital ownership types (public, non-profit and private) were analysed using univariate and multi-variate methods. The distribution of hospitals according to the three ownership types was similar in all components. In total, 661 intensive care units (ICUs), 149 departments performing colon procedures, and 349 departments performing hip prosthesis were included. In addition, 568 hospitals provided their MRSA rates and 236 provided their CDI rates, and 1833 ICUs and 12,934 non-ICUs provided their hand rub consumption data. In general, the differences between the hospital types were rather small and not significant for the ICUs. In the multi-variate analysis, public hospitals had a lower SSI rate following hip prosthesis (odds ratio 0.80, 95% confidence interval 0.65-0.99). Hospital ownership was not found to have a major influence on the incidence of HCAI in Germany. Copyright © 2018 The Healthcare Infection Society. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. [Sex ratio and environmental influence on population growth rate of Callinectes bellicosus (Decapoda: Portunidae) in the Gulf of California].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez-Félix, Demetrio; Cisneros-Mata, Miguel Angel; Aragón-Noriega, Eugenio Alberto; Arreola-Lizárraga, José Alfredo

    2016-09-01

    The brown swimming crab (Callinectes bellicosus) is an economically important species in the Gulf of California, and its fishing activity, held in Sonora from 1986, has been affected by a 20-year declining trend in its biomass. With the aim to understand the possible reasons of this species population changes along time, we estimated population growth rate (r) and sex ratio of C. bellicosus, and combined them with three parameters describing its habitat: sea temperature, wetland extension and habitat size in four areas along the coast of Sonora. For this, monthly mean sex ratio was estimated from crabs samples obtained from commercial catches during 1998-2002 and 2012; mean sea surface temperature for the spawning period (May-August) were derived from remote sensors for the same years; while wetland coverages were obtained from published reports, and habitat size was estimated as the fishing surface. For each area, r was estimated using a method developed for limited data situations using commercial landings (t) from 1986-2013. With data from the four areas, simple and multiple linear regression models were developed to ascertain theoretical sensitivities of r to variations in sex ratio and environmental parameters. A total of 24 556 crabs were sampled; males dominated (68.8 %) over females during the study period and in all areas; a cluster analysis identified two groups according to sex ratio: a Northern group with zones 1 and 2, and a Southern group with zones 3 and 4. r values were different in all zones (P0.995). Both the estimated data and sensitivity analyses suggest the existence of a direct and positive dependence of r on the proportion of female crabs and wetland size. We hypothesize that excess fishing of females caused the declining biomass trend of the brown swimming crab in Sonora, and concluded on the convenience of implementing harvest refugia inside coastal wetlands to protect females during the spawning season.

  10. Interest rate risk measurement in Brazilian sovereign markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Caio Ibsen Rodrigues de Almeida

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available Fixed income emerging markets are an interesting investment alternative. Measuring market risks is mandatory in order to avoid unexpected huge losses. The most used market risk measure is the Value at Risk, based on the profit-loss probability distribution of the portfolio under consideration. Estimating this probability distribution requires the prior estimation of the probability distribution of term structures of interest rates. An interesting possibility is to estimate term structures using a decomposition of the spread function into a linear combination of Legendre polynomials. Numerical examples from the Brazilian sovereign fixed income international market illustrate the practical use of the methodology.Os mercados emergentes de renda fixa são alternativas interessantes para investimentos. Devido ao elevado nível de incerteza existente em tais mercados, a mensuração dos riscos de mercado de uma carteira de investimentos é fundamental para que se evite um nível elevado de perdas. Uma das medidas de risco de mercado mais utilizadas é o Value at Risk, baseado na distribuição de probabilidades de perdas-ganhos da carteira sob análise. A estimação desta distribuição requer, no entanto, a estimação prévia da distribuição de pro-babilidades das variações da estrutura a termo da taxa de juros. Uma possibilidade interessante para a estimação de tal distribuição é efetuar uma decomposição da função de spread da estrutura a termo em uma combinação linear de Polinômios de Legendre. Exemplos numéricos do mercado internacional de títulos soberanos brasileiros são apresentados para ilustrar o uso prático desta nova metodologia.

  11. Limb/trunk lean mass ratio as a risk factor for mortality in peritoneal dialysis patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seok Hui Kang

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Protein energy wasting (PEW is a common problem in dialysis patients. There have been few reports on the effects of regional lean mass distribution for peritoneal dialysis (PD patients. We reviewed the medical records and identified all adults who received PD between May 2001 and May 2011. Five hundred thirty four patients were enrolled. The clinical and laboratory data were collected at 1 and 12 months. Regional lean masses were measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. The limb/trunk lean mass ratio (LTLM was defined as a value on dividing the sum of four limbs by the trunk lean mass. The mean age at the start of PD was 53.2±14.1 years. Diabetes mellitus (DM was most common underlying disease of end-stage renal disease (49.6%. In males, the low LTLM tertile was associated with low body mass index, creatinine, arm muscle circumference, and high C-reactive protein. In females, the low LTLM tertile was associated with low creatinine and normalized protein equivalent of nitrogen appearance. On both univariate and multivariate analysis adjusted for age, Davies risk index, and residual renal function, initial low LTLM tertile and maintenance of low LTLM were associated with mortality in PD patients. Distribution or change of regional lean mass may be more useful for predicting nutritional status. Initial low LTLM and maintenance of low LTLM were associated with mortality in PD patients. LTLM as a new marker would be useful for predicting the nutritional status and the mortality in patients on PD.

  12. Reducing catheter-related thrombosis using a risk reduction tool centered on catheter to vessel ratio.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spencer, Timothy R; Mahoney, Keegan J

    2017-11-01

    In vascular access practices, the internal vessel size is considered important, and a catheter to vessel ratio (CVR) is recommended to assist clinicians in selecting the most appropriate-sized device for the vessel. In 2016, new practice recommendations stated that the CVR can increase from 33 to 45% of the vessels diameter. There has been evidence on larger diameter catheters and increased thrombosis risk in recent literature, while insufficient information established on what relationship to vessel size is appropriate for any intra-vascular device. Earlier references to clinical standards and guidelines did not clearly address vessel size in relation to the area consumed or external catheter diameter. The aim of this manuscript is to present catheter-related thrombosis evidence and develop a standardized process of ultrasound-guided vessel assessment, integrating CVR, Virchow's triad phenomenon and vessel health and preservation strategies, empowering an evidence-based approach to device placement. Through review, calculation and assessment on the areas of the 33 and 45% rule, a preliminary clinical tool was developed to assist clinicians make cognizant decisions when placing intravascular devices relating to target vessel size, focusing on potential reduction in catheter-related thrombosis. Increasing the understanding and utilization of CVRs will lead to a safer, more consistent approach to device placement, with potential thrombosis reduction strategies. The future of evidence-based data relies on the clinician to capture accurate vessel measurements and device-related outcomes. This will lead to a more dependable data pool, driving the relationship of catheter-related thrombosis and vascular assessment.

  13. Asset backed securities : risks, ratings and quantitative modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jönsson, B.H.B.; Schoutens, W.

    2009-01-01

    Asset backed securities (ABSs) are structured finance products backed by pools of assets and are created through a securitisation process. The risks in asset backed securities, such as, credit risk, prepayment risk, market risks, operational risk, and legal risks, are directly connected with the

  14. Rates and risk factors of injury in CrossFitTM: a prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moran, Sebastian; Booker, Harry; Staines, Jacob; Williams, Sean

    2017-09-01

    CrossFitTM is a strength and conditioning program that has gained widespread popularity since its inception approximately 15 years ago. However, at present little is known about the level of injury risk associated with this form of training. Movement competency, assessed using the Functional Movement ScreenTM (FMS), has been identified as a risk factor for injury in numerous athletic populations, but its role in CrossFit participants is currently unclear. The aim of this study was to evaluate the level of injury risk associated with CrossFit training, and examine the influence of a number of potential risk factors (including movement competency). A cohort of 117 CrossFit participants were followed prospectively for 12 weeks. Participants' characteristics, previous injury history and training experience were recorded at baseline, and an FMS assessment was conducted. The overall injury incidence rate was 2.10 per 1000 training hours (90% confidence limits: 1.32-3.33). A multivariate Poisson regression model identified males (rate ratio [RR]: 4.44 ×/÷ 3.30, very likely harmful) and those with previous injuries (RR: 2.35 ×/÷ 2.37, likely harmful) as having a higher injury risk. Inferences relating to FMS variables were unclear in the multivariate model, although number of asymmetries was a clear risk factor in a univariate model (RR per two additional asymmetries: 2.62 ×/÷ 1.53, likely harmful). The injury incidence rate associated with CrossFit training was low, and comparable to other forms of recreational fitness activities. Previous injury and gender were identified as risk factors for injury, whilst the role of movement competency in this setting warrants further investigation.

  15. Testing for HPV as an objective measure for quality assurance in gynecologic cytology: positive rates in equivocal and abnormal specimens and comparison with the ASCUS to SIL ratio.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ko, Vincent; Nanji, Shabin; Tambouret, Rosemary H; Wilbur, David C

    2007-04-25

    Inappropriate use of the category of atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance (ASCUS) can result in overtreatment or undertreatment of patients, which may decrease the cost effectiveness of screening. Quality assurance tools, such as the ASCUS to squamous intraepithelial lesion ratio (ASCUS:SIL) and case review, are imperfect. High-risk HPV (hrHPV) testing is an objective test for a known viral carcinogen, and hrHPV may be more useful in monitoring the quality of ASCUS interpretations. hrHPV rates for cytologic diagnoses and patient age groups were calculated for a 2-year period. All hrHPV results for ASCUS and SIL over a 17-month period were analyzed by patient age group, over time, and by individual cytopathologist to compare hrHPV rates with the corresponding ASCUS:SIL. The hrHPV positive rate for SIL was >90%, and it was 32.6% for ASCUS. Stratification by patient age showed that approximately 50% of patients younger than 30 years and older than 70 years of age were hrHPV positive, whereas other patients had a lower rate ranging from 14% to 34%. The overall ASCUS:SIL was 1.42, and the overall hrHPV positive rate was 39.9%. Over time and by individual cytopathologist, the hrHPV rate performed similarly to the ASCUS:SIL. The analysis by patient age showed a high statistical correlation (R(2) = 0.9772) between the 2 methods. Despite differences between these techniques, the hrHPV rate closely recapitulates the ASCUS:SIL. When used together, the 2 methods can complement each other. The desirable hrHPV-positive range appears to be 40% to 50%; however, this may vary based on the patient population. The hrHPV rate is as quick and cost effective as determining the ASCUS:SIL. (c) 2007 American Cancer Society.

  16. Business travel and self-rated health, obesity, and cardiovascular disease risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richards, Catherine A; Rundle, Andrew G

    2011-04-01

    To assess associations between extent of travel for business and health. Associations between business travel and cardiovascular disease risk factors were assessed using medical record data from 13,057 patients provided by EHE International, Inc. Compared with light travelers (1 to 6 nights per month), nontravelers were more likely to report poor/fair health (odds ratio = 1.58; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.33 to 1.87) and the odds ratios increased with increasing travel, reaching 2.61 (95% CI: 1.57 to 4.33) among extensive travelers (>20 nights per month). Compared with light travelers, the odds ratios for obesity were highest among nontravelers (odds ratio = 1.33; 95% CI: 1.18 to 1.50) and extensive travelers (odds ratio = 1.92; 95% CI: 1.25 to 2.94). Although the differences were small, nontravelers and extensive travelers had the highest diastolic blood pressure and lowest high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels. Poor self-rated health and obesity are associated with extensive business travel.

  17. Predictive value of serum apolipoprotein B/apolipoprotein A-I ratio in metabolic syndrome risk: a Chinese cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chou, Yu-Ching; Kuan, Jen-Chun; Bai, Chyi-Huey; Yang, Tsan; Chou, Wan-Yun; Hsieh, Po-Chien; You, San-Lin; Hwang, Lee-Ching; Chen, Chien-Hua; Wei, Cheng-Yu; Sun, Chien-An

    2015-06-01

    The purpose of this study was to evaluate whether the apolipoprotein B/apolipoprotein A-I (apoB/apoA-I) ratio is a promising risk predictor of metabolic syndrome (MetS) and to determine the optimal cut-off value of this ratio in detecting subjects with MetS in a Chinese population. A prospective study was conducted using a representative sample of non-institutionized people in Taiwan. A total of 3,343 participants with mean age (±SD) of 39.86 (±15.61) years old were followed up from 2002 to 2007. The primary outcome was the incidence of MetS. The MetS was defined according to a unified criterion established by several major organizations. There were 462 cases of incident MetS during a mean follow-up period of 5.26 years. A significantly stepwise increase in the incidence of MetS across quartiles of the apoB/apoA-I ratio was noted in both sexes after adjustment for potential confounders (p for trend risk of MetS in both men [adjusted hazard ratio (HR) = 6.29, 95 % confidence interval (CI) = 2.79-9.13] and women (adjusted HR = 3.82, 95 % CI = 1.06-6.63). Comparisons of receiver operating characteristics curves indicated that the predictive ability of apoB/apoA-I ratio to detect MetS was better than conventional lipid ratio measurements. Furthermore, the optimal cut-off value of apoB/apoA-I ratio for MetS diagnosis was 0.71 in men and 0.56 in women. These results suggest that an elevated apoB/apoA-I ratio might constitute a potentially crucial measure linked to the risk of developing MetS.

  18. Implementation of intensity ratio change and line-of-sight rate change algorithms for imaging infrared trackers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viau, C. R.

    2012-06-01

    The use of the intensity change and line-of-sight (LOS) change concepts have previously been documented in the open-literature as techniques used by non-imaging infrared (IR) seekers to reject expendable IR countermeasures (IRCM). The purpose of this project was to implement IR counter-countermeasure (IRCCM) algorithms based on target intensity and kinematic behavior for a generic imaging IR (IIR) seeker model with the underlying goal of obtaining a better understanding of how expendable IRCM can be used to defeat the latest generation of seekers. The report describes the Intensity Ratio Change (IRC) and LOS Rate Change (LRC) discrimination techniques. The algorithms and the seeker model are implemented in a physics-based simulation product called Tactical Engagement Simulation Software (TESS™). TESS is developed in the MATLAB®/Simulink® environment and is a suite of RF/IR missile software simulators used to evaluate and analyze the effectiveness of countermeasures against various classes of guided threats. The investigation evaluates the algorithm and tests their robustness by presenting the results of batch simulation runs of surface-to-air (SAM) and air-to-air (AAM) IIR missiles engaging a non-maneuvering target platform equipped with expendable IRCM as self-protection. The report discusses how varying critical parameters such track memory time, ratio thresholds and hold time can influence the outcome of an engagement.

  19. Injury rates and injury risk factors among federal bureau of investigation new agent trainees

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    Background A one-year prospective examination of injury rates and injury risk factors was conducted in Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) new agent training. Methods Injury incidents were obtained from medical records and injury compensation forms. Potential injury risk factors were acquired from a lifestyle questionnaire and existing data at the FBI Academy. Results A total of 426 men and 105 women participated in the project. Thirty-five percent of men and 42% of women experienced one or more injuries during training. The injury incidence rate was 2.5 and 3.2 injuries/1,000 person-days for men and women, respectively (risk ratio (women/men) = 1.3, 95% confidence interval = 0.9-1.7). The activities most commonly associated with injuries (% of total) were defensive tactics training (58%), physical fitness training (20%), physical fitness testing (5%), and firearms training (3%). Among the men, higher injury risk was associated with older age, slower 300-meter sprint time, slower 1.5-mile run time, lower total points on the physical fitness test (PFT), lower self-rated physical activity, lower frequency of aerobic exercise, a prior upper or lower limb injury, and prior foot or knee pain that limited activity. Among the women higher injury risk was associated with slower 300-meter sprint time, slower 1.5-mile run time, lower total points on the PFT, and prior back pain that limited activity. Conclusion The results of this investigation supported those of a previous retrospective investigation emphasizing that lower fitness and self-reported pain limiting activity were associated with higher injury risk among FBI new agents. PMID:22166096

  20. Injury rates and risk factors in competitive professional boxing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zazryn, Tsharni R; McCrory, Paul R; Cameron, Peter A

    2009-01-01

    To determine injury rates and risk factors for injury in a cohort of professional boxers. Retrospective cohort design reporting on data collected for a fight statistics database maintained by the Professional Boxing and Combat Sports Board of Victoria, Australia. Data were extracted for the years January 1997 through June 2005. Victoria, Australia. 545 professional boxers (age, 18 to 43 years) who participated in a total of 907 fights over the study period. Independent variables under investigation included age, gender, weight, bout exposure, and location of the bout (within or outside of the State of Victoria). Physician-reported acute boxing injuries occurring during bouts of any region or nature. 214 injuries were sustained over the 8.5 years, corresponding to an injury rate of 23.6 per 100 professional fights. The majority of these injuries were lacerations to the head and face. An increasing age and an increasing number of fights were both significant predictors of injury. Injury reduction strategies for professional boxing might include restrictions of eligibility to fight based on age and boxing bout exposure. Future research using prospective cohort designs and standardized injury definitions are needed to confirm these results. Greater mechanistic detail and more complete data entry are necessary to ensure that optimal injury prevention strategies can be developed and implemented. Upon confirmation of the results of this study, the Professional Boxing and Combat Sports Board of Victoria may consider different criteria upon which to sanction a fight.

  1. Measurement of Muscle Protein Fractional Synthetic Rate by Capillary Gas Chromatography/Combustion Isotope Ratio Mass Spectrometry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yarasheski, Kevin E.; Smith, Kenneth; Rennie, Michael J.; Bier, Dennis M.

    2014-01-01

    The measurement of skeletal muscle protein fractional synthetic rate using an infusion of (1-13C)leucine and measuring the isotopic abundance of the tracer in skeletal muscle protein by preparative gas chromatography (GC)/ninhydrin isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS) is laborious and subject to errors owing to contamination by 12C. The purpose of this study was to compare muscle (13C)leucine enrichment measured with the conventional preparative GC/ninhydrin IRMS approach to a new, continuous-flow technique using capillary GC/combustion IRMS. Quadriceps muscles were removed from four Sprague–Dawley rats after each was infused at a different rate with (1-13C)leucine for 6–8 h. Muscle leucine enrichment (at.% excess) measured by both methods differed by less than 4%, except at low (13C)leucine enrichments (IRMS was used to assess muscle (13C)leucine enrichment and fractional muscle protein synthesis rate in ten normal young men and women infused with (1,2-13C2)leucine for 12–14 h. This approach reduced the variability of the isotope abundance measure and gave estimates of muscle protein synthesis rate (0.050 ± 0.011% h−1 (mean ± SEM); range = 0.023–0.147% h−1) that agree with published values determined using the standard analytical approach. The measurement of (13C)leucine enrichment from skeletal muscle protein by capillary GC/combustion IRMS provides a simple, acceptable and practical alternative to preparative GC/ninhydrin IRMS. PMID:1420371

  2. Evaluation of dyslipidemia, lipid ratios, and atherogenic index as cardiovascular risk factors among semi-urban dwellers in Nigeria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olamoyegun, Michael Adeyemi; Oluyombo, Rotimi; Asaolu, Stephen Olabode

    2016-01-01

    Background and Objectives: The increasing frequency of cardiovascular disease (CVD) rests on the presence of major cardiovascular risk factors including dyslipidemia. This dyslipidemia is also a target for the prevention and treatment of many cardiovascular diseases. Hence, identification of individuals at risk of CVD is needed for early identification and prevention. The study was carried out to evaluate dyslipidemia using the lipid ratios and indices instead of just the conventional lipid profile. Methodology: It was a cross-sectional study with 699 participants recruited from semi-urban communities in Nigeria. Anthropometric indices, blood pressure, and fasting lipid profiles were determined. Abnormalities in lipid indices and lipid ratios with atherogenic index were also determined. SPSS software version 17.0 were used for analysis, P < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. Results: There were 699 participants with a mean age of 64.45 ± 15.53 years. Elevated total cholesterol, high low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol, elevated triglyceride, and low high-density lipoprotein were seen in 5.3%, 19.3%, 4.4%, and 76.3% of the participants, respectively. The Castelli's risk index-I (CRI-I) predicted the highest prevalence of predisposition to cardiovascular risk (47.8%) with females being at significantly higher risk (55.2% vs. 29.3%, P < 0.001). Atherogenic coefficient, CRI-II, CHOLIndex, atherogenic index of plasma (AIP) predicted a cardiovascular risk prevalence of 22.5%, 15.9%, 11.2%, and 11.0%, respectively, with no significant difference in between the sexes. Conclusions: Serum lipid ratios and AIP may be used in addition to lipid parameters in clinical practice to assess cardiovascular risks even when lipid profiles are apparently normal. AIP was more gender specific amidst the lipid ratios. PMID:27853034

  3. An Analysis of Cumulative Risks Indicated by Biomonitoring Data of Six Phthalates Using the Maximum Cumulative Ratio

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Maximum Cumulative Ratio (MCR) quantifies the degree to which a single component of a chemical mixture drives the cumulative risk of a receptor.1 This study used the MCR, the Hazard Index (HI) and Hazard Quotient (HQ) to evaluate co-exposures to six phthalates using biomonito...

  4. An analysis of cumulative risks based on biomonitoring data for six phthalates using the Maximum Cumulative Ratio

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Maximum Cumulative Ratio (MCR) quantifies the degree to which a single chemical drives the cumulative risk of an individual exposed to multiple chemicals. Phthalates are a class of chemicals with ubiquitous exposures in the general population that have the potential to cause ...

  5. Influence of the urine flow rate on some caffeine metabolite ratios used to assess CYP1A2 activity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sinués, Blanca; Fanlo, Ana; Bernal, María Luisa; Mayayo, Esteban; Soriano, María Antonia; Martínez-Ballarin, Enrique

    2002-12-01

    Five established metabolite ratios (MRs) to measure P450 CYP1A2 activity--MR1 (17X + 17U)/137X, MR2 (AFMU + 1X + 1U)/17U, MR3 (17X/137X), MR4 (AFMU + 1X + 1U + 17X + 17U)/137X, and MR5 (AFMU + 1X + 1U)/17X--were calculated in urine 4-5 hours after caffeine intake. First, to assess the potential of omeprazole to induce CYP1A2 activity, a caffeine test was performed in 27 subjects on two occasions: before and after 14 days on omeprazole (20 mg/day). Samples of urine were analyzed by high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) to quantify caffeine and metabolites used to calculate the different caffeine MRs. MR1, MR3, and MR4 were enhanced after treatment; the percentage of change was inversely associated with that of the urine flow, with r values of -0.48, -0.49, and -0.47, respectively. However, MR2 or MR5 were not modified. To determine the reason for these contradictory results, the authors analyzed data of metabolites, ratios, and their components (numerators and denominators) from 152 subjects (who underwent one caffeine test) and their relationship with the urinary flow. Caffeine concentration in urine was the only compound nondependent on the urine flow. Consistently, ratios containing caffeine (MR1, MR3, and MR4) were highly influenced by the rate of urine excretion, since the flow dependence of their numerators is not canceled out by that of caffeine in their denominators. The dependency of the caffeine excretion on renal factors may explain the opposite results found with the different ratios in the aforementioned prospective study of drug interaction, the absence of closer correlations of the five MRs to each other, the discrepancies about the type of frequency distribution of the different MRs (either normal or multimodal), and the higher sensitivity of MR2 to detect gender differences in CYP1A2 activity found in this study. In summary, the data clearly emphasize the need for a strict control of the liquid intake to avoid high urine flows when MRs

  6. Does the sex ratio at sexual maturity affect men's later-life mortality risks? Evidence from historical China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zang, Emma; Zheng, Hui

    2018-04-01

    This study examines the relationship between the male-to-female sex ratio (measured as the proportion male) at sexual maturity and later-life mortality risks in the context of pre-industrial northeast China, using registration data from the Qing Dynasty. We find that a higher male-to-female sex ratio at sexual maturity is associated with a higher later-life mortality risk among men. This association is likely due to the long-term adverse consequences of stress caused by low mate availability at sexual maturity. We further find that a high sex ratio at sexual maturity mitigates the health benefits of marriage and exacerbates the health disadvantages of holding an official position in Qing China. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Lipid ratio as a suitable tool to identify individuals with MetS risk: A case- control study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abbasian, Maryam; Delvarianzadeh, Mehri; Ebrahimi, Hossein; Khosravi, Farideh

    2017-11-01

    This study aimed to compare the serum lipids ratio in staff with and without metabolic syndrome (MetS) who were working in Shahroud University of Medical Sciences. This case-control study was conducted in 2015 on 499 personnel aged 30-60 years old. ATP III criteria were used to diagnose patients with MetS. The data were analyzed by using logistic regression and ROC curve. Mean lipid ratio was higher in individuals having the MetS in both sexes compared with those without. In addition, the mean levels of lipid ratios significantly increased with increasing number of MetS components in both sexes. Also it could be concluded that TG/HDL-C ratio is the best marker for the diagnosis of MetS in men and women. Moreover, the cut-off point for the TG/HDL-C was 2.86 in women and 4.03 in men. It was found that for any unit of increases in the TG/HDL-C, the risk of developing the MetS will increase by 2.12 times. TG/HDL-C ratio is found to be the best clinical marker for the diagnosis of MetS compare with other lipid ratios, therefore it is recommended to be used as a feasible tool to identify individuals with MetS risk. Copyright © 2016 Diabetes India. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Transferrin saturation ratio and risk of total and cardiovascular mortality in the general population.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Stack, A G

    2014-08-01

    The transferrin saturation (TSAT) ratio is a commonly used indicator of iron deficiency and iron overload in clinical practice but precise relationships with total and cardiovascular mortality are unclear.

  9. Dietary Sodium to Potassium Ratio and Risk of Stroke in a Multiethnic Urban Population: The Northern Manhattan Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willey, Joshua; Gardener, Hannah; Cespedes, Sandino; Cheung, Ying K; Sacco, Ralph L; Elkind, Mitchell S V

    2017-11-01

    There is growing evidence that increased dietary sodium (Na) intake increases the risk of vascular diseases, including stroke, at least in part via an increase in blood pressure. Higher dietary potassium (K), seen with increased intake of fruits and vegetables, is associated with lower blood pressure. The goal of this study was to determine the association of a dietary Na:K with risk of stroke in a multiethnic urban population. Stroke-free participants from the Northern Manhattan Study, a population-based cohort study of stroke incidence, were followed-up for incident stroke. Baseline food frequency questionnaires were analyzed for Na and K intake. We estimated the hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals for the association of Na:K with incident total stroke using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models. Among 2570 participants with dietary data (mean age, 69±10 years; 64% women; 21% white; 55% Hispanic; 24% black), the mean Na:K ratio was 1.22±0.43. Over a mean follow-up of 12 years, there were 274 strokes. In adjusted models, a higher Na:K ratio was associated with increased risk for stroke (hazard ratio, 1.6; 95% confidence interval, 1.2-2.1) and specifically ischemic stroke (hazard ratio, 1.6; 95% confidence interval, 1.2-2.1). Na:K intake is an independent predictor of stroke risk. Further studies are required to understand the joint effect of Na and K intake on risk of cardiovascular disease. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

  10. SENSMG: First-Order Sensitivities of Neutron Reaction Rates, Reaction-Rate Ratios, Leakage, keff, and α Using PARTISN

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Favorite, Jeffrey A. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2016-11-21

    SENSMG is a tool for computing first-order sensitivities of neutron reaction rates, reaction-rate ratios, leakage, keff, and α using the PARTISN multigroup discrete-ordinates code. SENSMG computes sensitivities to all of the transport cross sections and data (total, fission, nu, chi, and all scattering moments), two edit cross sections (absorption and capture), and the density for every isotope and energy group. It also computes sensitivities to the mass density for every material and derivatives with respect to all interface locations. The tool can be used for one-dimensional spherical (r) and two-dimensional cylindrical (r-z) geometries. The tool can be used for fixed-source and eigenvalue problems. The tool implements Generalized Perturbation Theory (GPT) as discussed by Williams and Stacey. Section II of this report describes the theory behind adjoint-based sensitivities, gives the equations that SENSMG solves, and defines the sensitivities that are output. Section III describes the user interface, including the input file and command line options. Section IV describes the output. Section V gives some notes about the coding that may be of interest. Section VI discusses verification, which is ongoing. Section VII lists needs and ideas for future work. Appendix A lists all of the input files whose results are presented in Sec. VI.

  11. 75 FR 9257 - SBA Lender Risk Rating System

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-03-01

    ... Liquidation Rate; 3. Gross Delinquency Rate; 4. Gross Past-Due Rate; 5. Six (6) Month Net Flow Indicator; 6.... The statistical analysis performed showed that incorporating the Portfolio Size/Age component improved...) Month Delinquency Rate; 3. Gross Delinquency Rate; 4. Gross Past-Due Rate; 5. Average Small Business...

  12. Direct Dynamics Simulation of the Thermal 3CH2 + 3O2 Reaction. Rate Constant and Product Branching Ratios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lakshmanan, Sandhiya; Pratihar, Subha; Machado, Francisco Bolivar Correto; Hase, William Louis

    2018-04-26

    The reaction of 3CH2 with 3O2 is of fundamental importance in combustion and the reaction is complex as a result of multiple extremely exothermic product channels. In the present study, direct dynamics simulations were performed to study the reaction on both the singlet and triplet potential energy surfaces (PESs). The simulations were performed at the UM06/6-311++G(d,p) level of theory. Trajectories were calculated at a temperature of 300 K and all reactive trajectories proceeded through the carbonyl oxide Criegee intermediate, CH2OO, on both the singlet and triplet PESs. The triplet surface leads to only one product channel, H2CO + O(3P), while the singlet surface leads to 8 product channels with their relative importance as: CO + H2O > CO + OH + H ~ H2CO + O(1D) > HCO + OH ~ CO2 + H2 ~ CO + H2 + O(1D) > CO2 + H + H > HCO + O(1D) + H. Reaction on the singlet PES is barrierless, consistent with experiment and the total rate constant on the singlet surface is 0.93 ± 0.22 x 10-12 cm3molecule-1s-1 in comparison to the recommended experimental rate constant of 3.3 x 10-12 cm3molecule-1s-1. The simulation product yields for the singlet PES are compared with experiment and the most significant differences are for H, CO2, and H2O. Reaction on the triplet surface is also barrierless, inconsistent with experiment. A discussion is given of the need for future calculations to address the: (1) barrier on the triplet PES for 3CH2 + 3O2 → 3CH2OO; (2) temperature dependence of the 3CH2 + 3O2 reaction rate constant and product branching ratios; and (3) possible non-RRKM dynamics of the 1CH2OO Criegee intermediate.

  13. "There Are No Known Benefits . . .": Considering the Risk/Benefit Ratio of Qualitative Research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Opsal, Tara; Wolgemuth, Jennifer; Cross, Jennifer; Kaanta, Tanya; Dickmann, Ellyn; Colomer, Soria; Erdil-Moody, Zeynep

    2016-07-01

    Institutional review boards (IRBs) are responsible for weighing the risks and benefits of research participation. Qualitative researchers note numerous instances where IRB ethical frameworks fail to align with the ethics of their research projects and point out that IRB understandings of the benefits and risks of research often differ from those of the participants they seek to protect. This qualitative cross-case research investigates participants' interview experiences in six qualitative studies that differed in their methods, subject of focus, and populations. Our findings indicate that contemporary IRBs' use of population "vulnerability" and topic "sensitivity" to assess project risk does not adequately determine the benefits, risks, or ethicality of research. We recommend that IRBs treat as real the evidence for benefits in qualitative research, recognize that sensitivity and vulnerability do not predict risk, and encourage researchers to attend to relationships in their projects. © The Author(s) 2015.

  14. Mechanisms of Protection from Interest Rate Risk with Reference to the Life Insurance Market in Montenegro

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Burić Milijana Novović

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Insurance companies are facing major challenges that point to the need for control process and risk management. Risk management in insurance has a direct impact on solvency, economic security, and overall financial stability of insurance companies. It is very important for insurance companies to adequately calculate risks to which they are exposed. Asset liability management (ALM, as an integrated approach to financial management, requires simultaneous decision-making about categories and values of assets and liabilities in order to establish the optimum volume and the ratio of assets and liabilities, with the understanding of complexity of the financial market in which financial institutions operate. ALM focuses on a significant number of risks, whereby the emphasis in this paper will be on interest rate risk which indicates potential losses that may reflect in a lower interest margin, a lower value of assets or both, in terms of changes in interest rates. In the above context, the aim of this paper is to show how to protect from interest rate changes and how these changes influence the insurance market in Montenegro, both from the theoretical and the practical point of view. The authors consider this to be an interesting and very important topic, especially because the life insurance market in Montenegro is underdeveloped and subject to fluctuations. Also, taking into account the fact that Montenegro is a country that has been making serious efforts to join the EU, it is expected that insurance companies in Montenegro will strengthen their financial position in the market even using the ALM traditional techniques, which is shown in this paper.

  15. Gambling disorder: estimated prevalence rates and risk factors in Macao.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Anise M S; Lai, Mark H C; Tong, Kwok-Kit

    2014-12-01

    An excessive, problematic gambling pattern has been regarded as a mental disorder in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual for Mental Disorders (DSM) for more than 3 decades (American Psychiatric Association [APA], 1980). In this study, its latest prevalence in Macao (one of very few cities with legalized gambling in China and the Far East) was estimated with 2 major changes in the diagnostic criteria, suggested by the 5th edition of DSM (APA, 2013): (a) removing the "Illegal Act" criterion, and (b) lowering the threshold for diagnosis. A random, representative sample of 1,018 Macao residents was surveyed with a phone poll design in January 2013. After the 2 changes were adopted, the present study showed that the estimated prevalence rate of gambling disorder was 2.1% of the Macao adult population. Moreover, the present findings also provided empirical support to the application of these 2 recommended changes when assessing symptoms of gambling disorder among Chinese community adults. Personal risk factors of gambling disorder, namely being male, having low education, a preference for casino gambling, as well as high materialism, were identified.

  16. Validation and Clinical Utility of the hERG IC50:Cmax Ratio to Determine the Risk of Drug-Induced Torsades de Pointes: A Meta-Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehmann, David F; Eggleston, William D; Wang, Dongliang

    2018-03-01

    Use of the QT interval corrected for heart rate (QTc) on the electrocardiogram (ECG) to predict torsades de pointes (TdP) risk from culprit drugs is neither sensitive nor specific. The ratio of the half-maximum inhibitory concentration of the hERG channel (hERG IC50) to the peak serum concentration of unbound drug (C max ) is used during drug development to screen out chemical entities likely to cause TdP. To validate the use of the hERG IC50:C max ratio to predict TdP risk from a culprit drug by its correlation with TdP incidence. Medline (between 1966 and March 2017) was accessed for hERG IC50 and C max values from the antihistamine, fluoroquinolone, and antipsychotic classes to identify cases of drug-induced TdP. Exposure to a culprit drug was estimated from annual revenues reported by the manufacturer. Inclusion criteria for TdP cases were provision of an ECG tracing that demonstrated QTc prolongation with TdP and normal serum values of potassium, calcium, and magnesium. Cases reported in patients with a prior rhythm disturbance and those involving a drug interaction were excluded. The Meta-Analysis of Observational Studies in Epidemiology checklist was used for epidemiological data extraction by two authors. Negligible risk drugs were defined by an hERG IC50:C max ratio that correlated with less than a 5% chance of one TdP event for every 100 million exposures (relative risk [RR] 1.0). The hERG IC50:C max ratio correlated with TdP risk (0.312; 95% confidence interval 0.205-0.476, pratio of 80 (RR 1.0). The RR from olanzapine is on par with loratadine; ziprasidone is comparable with ciprofloxacin. Drugs with an RR greater than 50 include astemizole, risperidone, haloperidol, and thioridazine. The hERG IC50:C max ratio was correlated with TdP incidence for culprit drugs. This validation provides support for the potential use of the hERG IC50:C max ratio for clinical decision making in instances of drug selection where TdP risk is a concern. © 2018

  17. Measurement of disintegration rate and decay branching ratio for nuclide 192Ir with β-, EC mixing decays by using 4πβ-γ coincidence counting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yan Chunguang; Pei Wulang; Li Wei; Qu Decheng; Xiong Jing; Chang Yongfu

    1995-01-01

    The absolute disintegration rates for nuclide 192 Ir were measured with a 4πβ-γ (HPGe) coincidence apparatus by using parameter method and extrapolation method. The final uncertainties obtained were 0.4% and 0.5% respectively for a confidence level of 99.7%. The method with which both the disintegration rate and the decay branching ratio can be measured for nuclides with β - and EC mixing decays was proposed and described. The β - branching ratio in 192 Ir decays was measured being 0.9572. The final uncertainties of disintegration rates and β - decay branching ratio with this method were 1.5% and 1.8% respectively

  18. 12 CFR 652.15 - Interest rate risk management and requirements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Interest rate risk management and requirements... AGRICULTURAL MORTGAGE CORPORATION FUNDING AND FISCAL AFFAIRS Investment Management § 652.15 Interest rate risk... (direction, controls, and supervision) to the interest rate risk management program and must be knowledgeable...

  19. Landscape-scale estimation of denitrification rates and nitrous oxide to dinitrogen ratio at Georgia and Pennsylvania LTAR sites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dell, C. J.; Groffman, P. M.; Strickland, T.; Kleinman, P. J. A.; Bosch, D. D.; Bryant, R.

    2015-12-01

    Denitrification results in a significant loss of plant-available nitrogen from agricultural systems and contributes to climate change, due to the emissions of both the potent greenhouse gas nitrous oxide (N2O) and environmentally benign dinitrogen (N2). However total quantities of the gases emitted and the ratio of N2:N2O are often not clearly understood, because N2 emissions cannot be directly measured in the field because of the high background level of N2 in the atmosphere. While variability in soil conditions across landscapes, especially water content and aeration, is believed to greatly impact both total denitrification rates and N2:N2O, the measurement limitations have prevented a clear understanding of landscape-scale emissions of denitrification products. The Cary Institute has developed an approach where soil core are maintained in a sealed system with an N2-free airstream, allowing emitted N2 and N2O emissions to be measured without interference from atmospheric N2. Emissions of the gases are measured under a range of oxygen concentrations and soil water contents. Laboratory responses can then be correlated with measured field conditions at the sampling points and resulting emission estimates extrapolated to the field-scale. Measurements are currently being conducted on peanut/cotton rotations, dairy forage rotations (silage corn/alfalfa), and bioenergy crops (switchgrass and miscanthus) at Long Term Agricultural Research (LTAR) sites at Tifton, GA and University Park, PA.

  20. Are Polish firms risk-averting or risk-loving? : evidence on demand uncertainty and the capital-labour ratio in a transition economy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lensink, Robert; Murinde, Victor; Green, Christopher J.

    1999-01-01

    This paper investigates the effect of demand uncertainty on the capital-labour ratio of non-financial firms in Poland in order to infer the firms’ risk behaviour. A generic model is used to characterise a utility maximising firm in a transition economy with demand uncertainty and imperfect

  1. Impact of Race/Ethnicity and Socioeconomic Status on Risk-Adjusted Hospital Readmission Rates Following Hip and Knee Arthroplasty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martsolf, Grant R; Barrett, Marguerite L; Weiss, Audrey J; Kandrack, Ryan; Washington, Raynard; Steiner, Claudia A; Mehrotra, Ateev; SooHoo, Nelson F; Coffey, Rosanna

    2016-08-17

    Readmission rates following total hip arthroplasty (THA) and total knee arthroplasty (TKA) are increasingly used to measure hospital performance. Readmission rates that are not adjusted for race/ethnicity and socioeconomic status, patient risk factors beyond a hospital's control, may not accurately reflect a hospital's performance. In this study, we examined the extent to which risk-adjusting for race/ethnicity and socioeconomic status affected hospital performance in terms of readmission rates following THA and TKA. We calculated 2 sets of risk-adjusted readmission rates by (1) using the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services standard risk-adjustment algorithm that incorporates patient age, sex, comorbidities, and hospital effects and (2) adding race/ethnicity and socioeconomic status to the model. Using data from the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project, 2011 State Inpatient Databases, we compared the relative performances of 1,194 hospitals across the 2 methods. Addition of race/ethnicity and socioeconomic status to the risk-adjustment algorithm resulted in (1) little or no change in the risk-adjusted readmission rates at nearly all hospitals; (2) no change in the designation of the readmission rate as better, worse, or not different from the population mean at >99% of the hospitals; and (3) no change in the excess readmission ratio at >97% of the hospitals. Inclusion of race/ethnicity and socioeconomic status in the risk-adjustment algorithm led to a relative-performance change in readmission rates following THA and TKA at socioeconomic status in risk-adjusted THA and TKA readmission rates used for hospital accountability, payment, and public reporting. Prognostic Level III. See instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence. Copyright © 2016 by The Journal of Bone and Joint Surgery, Incorporated.

  2. Estimation of the standardized risk difference and ratio in a competing risks framework: application to injection drug use and progression to AIDS after initiation of antiretroviral therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cole, Stephen R; Lau, Bryan; Eron, Joseph J; Brookhart, M Alan; Kitahata, Mari M; Martin, Jeffrey N; Mathews, William C; Mugavero, Michael J

    2015-02-15

    There are few published examples of absolute risk estimated from epidemiologic data subject to censoring and competing risks with adjustment for multiple confounders. We present an example estimating the effect of injection drug use on 6-year risk of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) after initiation of combination antiretroviral therapy between 1998 and 2012 in an 8-site US cohort study with death before AIDS as a competing risk. We estimate the risk standardized to the total study sample by combining inverse probability weights with the cumulative incidence function; estimates of precision are obtained by bootstrap. In 7,182 patients (83% male, 33% African American, median age of 38 years), we observed 6-year standardized AIDS risks of 16.75% among 1,143 injection drug users and 12.08% among 6,039 nonusers, yielding a standardized risk difference of 4.68 (95% confidence interval: 1.27, 8.08) and a standardized risk ratio of 1.39 (95% confidence interval: 1.12, 1.72). Results may be sensitive to the assumptions of exposure-version irrelevance, no measurement bias, and no unmeasured confounding. These limitations suggest that results be replicated with refined measurements of injection drug use. Nevertheless, estimating the standardized risk difference and ratio is straightforward, and injection drug use appears to increase the risk of AIDS. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  3. Prevalence rates and epidemiological risk factors for astigmatism in Singapore school children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tong, Louis; Saw, Seang-Mei; Carkeet, Andrew; Chan, Wai-Ying; Wu, Hui-Min; Tan, Donald

    2002-09-01

    This study examined the prevalence rate of astigmatism and its epidemiological risk factors in Singapore school children. In a study of school children aged 7 to 9 years old in two schools in Singapore in 1999, a detailed questionnaire was administered to parents regarding reading or close-work habits, past history of close-work, family history, and socioeconomic factors. Cycloplegic refraction was performed five times in each eye. Defining astigmatism as worse than or equal to 0.5, 0.75, and 1 D cylinder in the right eye, the prevalence of astigmatism was calculated. The study population consisted of 1028 children. The prevalence rate of astigmatism (worse than or equal to 1 D cylinder) was 19.2% (95% confidence interval, 16.8 to 21.6). This was not different between genders, ethnic groups, or age (p > 0.05). With-the-rule astigmatism was more common than against-the-rule astigmatism. The prevalence of astigmatism and myopia was 9.8% (95% confidence interval, 8.0 to 11.6). A high AC/A ratio was associated (p = 0.003) with astigmatism, even after exclusion of myopic children. On vectorial analysis, J0 and J45 were associated with the number of hours of playing video games, whereas J45 was also associated with computer use. Only J45 was associated to male gender, a high AC/A ratio, and a family history of myopia. The prevalence rate of astigmatism (> or = 1 D) was 19%. Playing video games and computer use may be associated with astigmatism severity, although the presence of astigmatism (> or = 1 D) was not associated with any nearwork factors. A family history of myopia was associated with oblique astigmatism severity. A high AC/A ratio is associated with astigmatism, and this requires further investigation.

  4. 77 FR 5155 - Interest Rate Risk Policy and Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-02-02

    ... directors and management; appropriate IRR measurement and monitoring systems; good internal controls; and... Systems B. Risk Measurement Methods C. Components of IRR Measurement Methods V. Internal Controls VI... risk management and a program to effectively implement that policy, as part of their asset liability...

  5. Essays on long-term mortality and interest rate risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Kort, J.P.

    2017-01-01

    This dissertation comprises a study of long-term risks which play a major role in actuarial science. In Part I we analyse long-term mortality risk and its impact on consumption and investment decisions of economic agents, while Part II focuses on the mathematical modelling of long-term interest

  6. Carbon recovery rates following different wildfire risk mitigation treatments

    Science.gov (United States)

    M. Hurteau; M. North

    2010-01-01

    Sequestered forest carbon can provide a climate change mitigation benefit, but in dry temperate forests, wildfire poses a reversal risk to carbon offset projects. Reducing wildfire risk requires a reduction in and redistribution of carbon stocks, the benefit of which is only realized when wildfire occurs. To estimate the time needed to recover carbon removed and...

  7. Analysis of C/E results of fission rate ratio measurements in several fast lead VENUS-F cores

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kochetkov, Anatoly; Krása, Antonín; Baeten, Peter; Vittiglio, Guido; Wagemans, Jan; Bécares, Vicente; Bianchini, Giancarlo; Fabrizio, Valentina; Carta, Mario; Firpo, Gabriele; Fridman, Emil; Sarotto, Massimo

    2017-09-01

    During the GUINEVERE FP6 European project (2006-2011), the zero-power VENUS water-moderated reactor was modified into VENUS-F, a mock-up of a lead cooled fast spectrum system with solid components that can be operated in both critical and subcritical mode. The Fast Reactor Experiments for hybrid Applications (FREYA) FP7 project was launched in 2011 to support the designs of the MYRRHA Accelerator Driven System (ADS) and the ALFRED Lead Fast Reactor (LFR). Three VENUS-F critical core configurations, simulating the complex MYRRHA core design and one configuration devoted to the LFR ALFRED core conditions were investigated in 2015. The MYRRHA related cores simulated step by step design peculiarities like the BeO reflector and in pile sections. For all of these cores the fuel assemblies were of a simple design consisting of 30% enriched metallic uranium, lead rodlets to simulate the coolant and Al2O3 rodlets to simulate the oxide fuel. Fission rate ratios of minor actinides such as Np-237, Am-241 as well as Pu-239, Pu-240, Pu-242 and U-238 to U-235 were measured in these VENUS-F critical assemblies with small fission chambers in specially designed locations, to determine the spectral indices in the different neutron spectrum conditions. The measurements have been analyzed using advanced computational tools including deterministic and stochastic codes and different nuclear data sets like JEFF-3.1, JEFF-3.2, ENDF/B7.1 and JENDL-4.0. The analysis of the C/E discrepancies will help to improve the nuclear data in the specific energy region of fast neutron reactor spectra.

  8. MAX to MYCN intracellular ratio drives the aggressive phenotype and clinical outcome of high risk neuroblastoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrucci, Francesca; Ciaccio, Roberto; Monticelli, Sara; Pigini, Paolo; di Giacomo, Simone; Purgato, Stefania; Erriquez, Daniela; Bernardoni, Roberto; Norris, Murray; Haber, Michelle; Milazzo, Giorgio; Perini, Giovanni

    2018-03-01

    Childhood neuroblastoma, a disease of the sympathetic nervous system, is the most common solid tumour of infancy, remarkably refractory to therapeutic treatments. One of the most powerful independent prognostic indicators for this disease is the amplification of the MYCN oncogene, which occurs at high levels in approximately 25% of neuroblastomas. Interestingly, amplification and not just expression of MYCN has a strong prognostic value, although this fact appears quite surprising as MYCN is a transcription factor that requires dimerising with its partner MAX, to exert its function. This observation greatly suggests that the role of MYCN in neuroblastoma should be examined in the context of MAX expression. In this report, we show that, in contrast to what is found in normal cells, MAX expression is significantly different among primary NBs, and that its level appears to correlate with the clinical outcome of the disease. Importantly, controlled modulation of MAX expression in neuroblastoma cells with different extents of MYCN amplification, demonstrates that MAX can instruct gene transcription programs that either reinforce or weaken the oncogenic process enacted by MYCN. In general, our work illustrates that it is the MAX to MYCN ratio that can account for tumour progression and clinical outcome in neuroblastoma and proposes that such a ratio should be considered as an important criterion to the design and development of anti-MYCN therapies. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Low mortality rates after endovascular aortic repair expand use to high-risk patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adkar, Shaunak S; Turner, Megan C; Leraas, Harold J; Gilmore, Brian F; Nag, Uttara; Turley, Ryan S; Shortell, Cynthia K; Mureebe, Leila

    2018-02-01

    The 2010 endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) trial 2 (EVAR 2) reported that patients with comorbidity profiles rendering them unfit for open aneurysm repair who underwent EVAR did not experience a survival advantage compared with those who did not undergo intervention. These patients experienced a 30-day mortality of 7.3%, whereas reports from similar cohorts reported far lower mortality rates. The primary objective of our study was to compare the incidence of 30-day mortality in low- and high-risk patients undergoing EVAR in a contemporary data set, using patient risk stratification criteria from EVAR 2. Secondarily, we sought to identify risk factors associated with a disproportionate contribution to 30-day mortality risk. Data were obtained from the 2005 to 2013 American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS NSQIP) Participant Use Data Files (N = 24,813). Patients were included in the high-risk cohort with the presence of renal, respiratory, or cardiac preoperative criteria alone or in combination. Renal impairment criteria were defined as dialysis and creatinine concentration >2.26 mg/dL. Respiratory impairment criteria included history of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and preoperative ventilator support. Cardiac impairment criteria included history of myocardial infarction, congestive heart failure, angina, and prior coronary intervention. Patient and procedural characteristics and 30-day postoperative outcomes were compared using Pearson χ 2 tests for categorical variables and Wilcoxon rank sum tests for continuous variables. Among 24,813 patients undergoing EVAR, 12,043 (48%) patients were characterized as high risk (at least one impairment criterion); 12,770 (52%) patients were stratified as low risk. The 30-day mortality rate was 1.9% in the high-risk cohort compared with the 7.3% reported by EVAR 2, and it was higher in the high-risk cohort compared with the low-risk cohort (1.9% vs 0.9%; P < .001). Whereas the

  10. Smoking and increased risk of multiple sclerosis: parallel trends in the sex ratio reinforce the evidence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Palacios, Natalia; Alonso, Alvaro; Brønnum-Hansen, Henrik

    2011-01-01

    Smoking behavior in industrialized nations has changed markedly over the second half of the 20th century, with diverging patterns in male and female smoking rates. We examined whether the female/male incidence of multiple sclerosis (MS) changed concomitantly with smoking, as would be expected if ...

  11. 12 CFR 615.5180 - Interest rate risk management by banks-general.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Interest rate risk management by banks-general... FISCAL AFFAIRS, LOAN POLICIES AND OPERATIONS, AND FUNDING OPERATIONS Risk Assessment and Management § 615.5180 Interest rate risk management by banks—general. The board of directors of each Farm Credit Bank...

  12. 12 CFR 563.176 - Interest-rate-risk-management procedures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 5 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Interest-rate-risk-management procedures. 563... ASSOCIATIONS-OPERATIONS Financial Management Policies § 563.176 Interest-rate-risk-management procedures... association's management of that risk. (b) The board of directors shall formerly adopt a policy for the...

  13. 12 CFR 615.5181 - Bank interest rate risk management program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Bank interest rate risk management program. 615... FISCAL AFFAIRS, LOAN POLICIES AND OPERATIONS, AND FUNDING OPERATIONS Risk Assessment and Management § 615.5181 Bank interest rate risk management program. (a) The board of directors of each Farm Credit Bank...

  14. Financial Risk Ratios and Earnings Management: Reducing Uncertainties in Shariah-compliant Companies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Soheil Kazemian

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available This study examines whether Shariah-compliant companies practice earnings management by investigating the relationship among the risk of financial distress, leverage, and free cash flow in discretionary accruals, which function as a substitute for earnings management. This empirical research is conducted on a sample of Malaysian Shariah-compliant companies from all industries in Bursa Malaysia from 2012 to 2014. Results show that Shariah-compliant companies are highly influenced by the risk of financial distress, leverage, and free cash flow. This study argues that working as either Shariah-compliant or non-Shariah-compliant does not affect the level of earnings management through financial distress, high leverage, and free cash flow by managers. Results should be of interest to stakeholders, shareholders, and regulatory bodies (i.e., the Shariah Advisory Council and the Securities Commission that oversee the accountability of corporate financial reporting to prevent earnings management in Shariah-compliant companies. Findings can also aid relevant authorities (i.e., the Shariah Advisory Council and the Security Commission in Malaysia in overcoming or reducing problems related to earnings management. This study is one of the most significant works in Malaysia in terms of sample size and methodology. It argues that the three elements of earnings management (i.e., financial distress, high leverage, and free cash flow influence better disclosure of reported earnings.

  15. The risk ratio for development of hereditary sensorineural hearing loss in consanguineous marriage offspring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanyelbhaa, Hossam; Kabel, Abdelmagied; Abo El-Naga, Heba Abd El-Rehem; Sanyelbhaa, Ahmed; Salem, Hatem

    2017-10-01

    This study aims to define the relative risk of development of hearing loss in offspring of consanguineous marriages. This is a retrospective case-control study conducted in a tertiary referral center in Jeddah, KSA. The study group included 1600 probands (848 males, 752 females), with age range 0.5-12 years (6.6 ± 3.6). The study group comprised of two equal, age and sex matched subgroups; Hearing Loss (HL) group and Normal Hearing (NH) group. The children included in the HL group should have idiopathic or non syndromic genetic sensorineural hearing loss. The HL Group comprised 800 children with variable degrees of sensorineural hearing loss. Profound and severe degrees of hearing loss were the most prevalent degrees (P marriage offspring in the NH group was 42.5%, while in the HL group it was 68.9% (P  0.05). The relative risk and 95% confidence interval (RR, 95% CI) for development of hearing loss in offspring of consanguineous marriage was 1.76 (95% CI 1.57-1.97, P marriage progeny to develop SNHL when compared to non consanguineous progeny. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  16. Nonlinear Conte-Zbilut-Federici (CZF Method of Computing LF/HF Ratio: A More Reliable Index of Changes in Heart Rate Variability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vernon Bond Jr

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: Acupuncture treatments are safe and effective for a wide variety of diseases involving autonomic dysregulation. Heart rate variability (HRV is a noninvasive method for assessing sympathovagal balance. The low frequency/high frequency (LF/HF spectral power ratio is an index of sympathovagal influence on heart rate and of cardi

  17. THE APPLICATION OF RISK BASED BANK RATING ON BANKRUPTCY PREDICTION OF BANKS IN INDONESIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Evi Sistiyarini

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The increase of banking products and services which is more complex will increase the risk to the banks. Therefore, to anticipate the rise of financial difficulties in a bank, the early warning system. This study aimed to find the influence RBBR (Risk Based Bank Rating ratio’s to predict bankruptcy of conventional Banks in Indonesia. Ratio of RBBR consisted of risk profile, Good Corporate Governance, profitability and capital. Independent variables used were NPL, PDN, LDR, GCG, ROA and NIM, and CAR. Dependent variable was bank bankruptcy using dummy variable. The population of this study was all of the conventional banks in Indonesia. The data was a secondary data taken form financial report of conventional bank 2011-2015. Technical sampling used was a purposive sampling method with some criteria. The analysis of this study used logistic regression.The result of the study showed that NPL, PDN, LDR, GCG, ROA and NIM, and CARhad no significant influence to bankruptcy of the bank.

  18. Limb/trunk lean mass ratio as a risk factor for mortality in peritoneal dialysis patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Seok Hui; Park, Jong Won; Yoon, Kyung Woo; Do, Jun Young

    2013-07-01

    This study was performed to determine the clinical relevance of limb/trunk lean mass ratio (LTLM) in continuous ambulatory peritoneal dialysis (CAPD) patients. This retrospective cohort study included 534 CAPD patients. Body compositions were measured using a dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry apparatus. In males, the sensitivity and specificity for the diagnosis of sarcopenia were 70.3% and 85.9%, respectively. Respective values in females were 62.3% and 83.8%. The initial low LTLM tertile was associated with mortality in male CAPD patients and in female CAPD patients. Among patients who maintained CAPD for a year, the maintenance of low LTLM tertile was associated with mortality. LTLM is associated with other lean mass indices, nutritional status, and mortality in CAPD patients. Therefore, LTLM is a novel marker that is useful for the prediction of the nutritional status and mortality in patients with CAPD. Copyright © 2013 National Kidney Foundation, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. WAIST-HIP RATIO AND WAIST CIRCUMFERENCE AS SIMPLE MEASURES OF CARDIOVASCULAR RISK ASSESSMENT AND WEIGHT MANAGEMENT AMONG MEDICAL STUDENTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarbjit Singh

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND The Waist-Hip Ratio (WHR and Waist Circumference (WC were used to identify people at health risk both from being overweight and having visceral fat distribution. The aim of this study was to determine the association of WHR and WC in measuring the abdominal obesity, cardiovascular risk and weight management. MATERIALS AND METHODS The study involved 200 medical students (102 boys and 98 girls in the age group of 18-23 years (mean age 20.43 ± 8.9 years of Government Medical College, Amritsar, Punjab. WHR was divided into three groups in females- ≤0.80, 0.81-0.85 and >0.86 and males- ≤0.90, 0.90-1.0 and >1.0. WC was also divided into three groups in females- 88 cm and males- 102 cm. RESULTS The results of measurement of Waist-Hip Ratio (WHR of females were ≤0.80 (2%, 0.81-85 (10% and >0.86 (88% and males ≤90 (82%, 0.90-1.0 (15% and >1.0 (3%. Waist Circumference (WC of females was 88 cm (19% and males 102 cm (4%. CONCLUSION WHR is a better predictor of Cardiovascular Diseases (CVD than WC. WHR and WC are measures of abdominal obesity and should be incorporated in weight management. WHR 0.81-0.86 in girls and 0.90-1.0 in males have moderate health risk, while >0.86 in females and >1.0 in males have high health risk. Men with WC ≥94 cm and women ≥80 cm should gain no further weight while men with WC ≥102 cm and women with ≥88cm should reduce their weight to avoid cardiovascular risks. Waist circumference is another alternative.

  20. Return and Risk of Pairs Trading Using a Simulation-Based Bayesian Procedure for Predicting Stable Ratios of Stock Prices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Ardia

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available We investigate the direct connection between the uncertainty related to estimated stable ratios of stock prices and risk and return of two pairs trading strategies: a conditional statistical arbitrage method and an implicit arbitrage one. A simulation-based Bayesian procedure is introduced for predicting stable stock price ratios, defined in a cointegration model. Using this class of models and the proposed inferential technique, we are able to connect estimation and model uncertainty with risk and return of stock trading. In terms of methodology, we show the effect that using an encompassing prior, which is shown to be equivalent to a Jeffreys’ prior, has under an orthogonal normalization for the selection of pairs of cointegrated stock prices and further, its effect for the estimation and prediction of the spread between cointegrated stock prices. We distinguish between models with a normal and Student t distribution since the latter typically provides a better description of daily changes of prices on financial markets. As an empirical application, stocks are used that are ingredients of the Dow Jones Composite Average index. The results show that normalization has little effect on the selection of pairs of cointegrated stocks on the basis of Bayes factors. However, the results stress the importance of the orthogonal normalization for the estimation and prediction of the spread—the deviation from the equilibrium relationship—which leads to better results in terms of profit per capital engagement and risk than using a standard linear normalization.

  1. Quantitative chemical exchange saturation transfer (qCEST) MRI - omega plot analysis of RF-spillover-corrected inverse CEST ratio asymmetry for simultaneous determination of labile proton ratio and exchange rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Renhua; Xiao, Gang; Zhou, Iris Yuwen; Ran, Chongzhao; Sun, Phillip Zhe

    2015-03-01

    Chemical exchange saturation transfer (CEST) MRI is sensitive to labile proton concentration and exchange rate, thus allowing measurement of dilute CEST agent and microenvironmental properties. However, CEST measurement depends not only on the CEST agent properties but also on the experimental conditions. Quantitative CEST (qCEST) analysis has been proposed to address the limitation of the commonly used simplistic CEST-weighted calculation. Recent research has shown that the concomitant direct RF saturation (spillover) effect can be corrected using an inverse CEST ratio calculation. We postulated that a simplified qCEST analysis is feasible with omega plot analysis of the inverse CEST asymmetry calculation. Specifically, simulations showed that the numerically derived labile proton ratio and exchange rate were in good agreement with input values. In addition, the qCEST analysis was confirmed experimentally in a phantom with concurrent variation in CEST agent concentration and pH. Also, we demonstrated that the derived labile proton ratio increased linearly with creatine concentration (P analysis can simultaneously determine labile proton ratio and exchange rate in a relatively complex in vitro CEST system. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  2. Determination of rate constants and branching ratios for TCE degradation by zero-valent iron using a chain decay multispecies model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hwang, Hyoun-Tae; Jeen, Sung-Wook; Sudicky, Edward A; Illman, Walter A

    2015-01-01

    The applicability of a newly-developed chain-decay multispecies model (CMM) was validated by obtaining kinetic rate constants and branching ratios along the reaction pathways of trichloroethene (TCE) reduction by zero-valent iron (ZVI) from column experiments. Changes in rate constants and branching ratios for individual reactions for degradation products over time for two columns under different geochemical conditions were examined to provide ranges of those parameters expected over the long-term. As compared to the column receiving deionized water, the column receiving dissolved CaCO3 showed higher mean degradation rates for TCE and all of its degradation products. However, the column experienced faster reactivity loss toward TCE degradation due to precipitation of secondary carbonate minerals, as indicated by a higher value for the ratio of maximum to minimum TCE degradation rate observed over time. From the calculated branching ratios, it was found that TCE and cis-dichloroethene (cis-DCE) were dominantly dechlorinated to chloroacetylene and acetylene, respectively, through reductive elimination for both columns. The CMM model, validated by the column test data in this study, provides a convenient tool to determine simultaneously the critical design parameters for permeable reactive barriers and natural attenuation such as rate constants and branching ratios. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. A proposed cutoff point of waist-to-height ratio for metabolic risk in African township adolescents

    OpenAIRE

    Kruger, H. Salomé; Faber, Mieke; Schutte, Aletta E.; Ellis, Suria M.

    2013-01-01

    Objective: A waist:height ratio (WHtR) higher than 0.5 has been proposed as a cutoff point for abdominal obesity in both sexes and at all ages. It is unknown if this cutoff point is appropriate for previously undernourished adolescents. We assessed the cutoff value of the WHtR associated with an increased metabolic risk in 178 black South African 14- to 18-y-old adolescents (69 boys, 109 girls). Methods: We measured weight, height, waist circumference, fasting plasma glucose an...

  4. Bank Credit Risk Management and Rating Migration Analysis on the Business Cycle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dimitris Gavalas

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Credit risk measurement remains a critical field of top priority in banking finance, directly implicated in the recent global financial crisis. This paper examines the dynamic linkages between credit risk migration due to rating shifts and prevailing macroeconomic conditions, reflected in alternative business cycle states. An innovative empirical methodology applies to bank internal rating data, under different economic scenarios and investigates the implications of credit risk quality shifts for risk rating transition matrices. The empirical findings are useful and critical for banks to align to Basel guidelines in relation to core capital requirements and risk-weighted assets in the underlying loan portfolio.

  5. The effects of return on investment, sales growth rate, volatility of investment, cash flow and structure of institutional shareholders on the ratio of debt to equities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jalal Golmohammadi

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a study to measure the effects of return on investment, sales growth rate, volatility investment, cash flow and structure of institutional shareholders on the ratio of debt to equities. The study selects 102 firms listed on Tehran Stock Exchange and, using regression technique with Panel data, examines five different hypotheses over the period 2008-2012. The results indicate that there was a negative and meaningful relationship between return of investment and the ratio of debt to equities and a positive and meaningful relationship between sales growth and the ratio of debt to equities. Moreover, there were positive and meaningful relationships between volatility of investment as well as cash flow and the ratio of debt to equities. Finally, the survey has indicated that there was a negative and meaningful relationship between the structure of institutional shareholders and the ratio of debt to equities.

  6. Selenium and mercury molar ratios in commercial fish from New Jersey and Illinois: variation within species and relevance to risk communication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burger, Joanna; Gochfeld, Michael

    2013-07-01

    There is an emerging consensus that people consuming large amounts of fish with selenium:mercury ratios below 1 are at higher risk from mercury toxicity. As the relative amount of selenium increases compared to mercury, risk may be lowered, but it is unclear how much excess selenium is required. It would be useful if the selenium:mercury ratio was relatively consistent within a species, but this has not been the case in our studies of wild-caught fish. Since most people in developed countries and urban areas obtain their fish and other seafood commercially, we examined selenium:mercury molar ratios in commercial fish purchased in stores and fish markets in central New Jersey and Chicago. There was substantial interspecific and intraspecific variation in molar ratios. Across species the selenium:mercury molar ratio decreased with increasing mean mercury levels, but selenium variation also contributed to the ratio. Few samples had selenium:mercury molar ratios below 1, but there was a wide range in ratios, complicating the interpretation for use in risk management and communication. Before ratios can be used in risk management, more information is needed on mercury:selenium interactions and mutual bioavailability, and on the relationship between molar ratios and health outcomes. Further, people who are selenium deficient may be more at risk from mercury toxicity than others. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Selenium and mercury molar ratios in commercial fish from New Jersey and Illinois: Variation within species and relevance to risk communication

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burger, Joanna; Gochfeld, Michael

    2015-01-01

    There is an emerging consensus that people consuming large amounts of fish with selenium:mercury ratios below 1 may be at higher risk from mercury toxicity. As the relative amount of selenium increases compared to mercury, risk may be lowered, but it is unclear how much excess selenium is required. It would be useful if the selenium:mercury ratio was relatively consistent within a species, but this has not been the case in our studies of wild-caught fish. Since most people in developed countries and urban areas obtain their fish and other seafood commercially, we examined selenium:mercury molar ratios in commercial fish purchased in stores and fish markets in central New Jersey and Chicago. There was substantial interspecific and intraspecific variation in molar ratios. Across species the selenium:mercury molar ratio decreased with increasing mean mercury levels, but selenium variation also contributed to the ratio. Few samples had selenium:mercury molar ratios below 1, but there was a wide range in ratios, complicating the interpretation for use in risk management and communication. Before ratios can be used in risk management, more information is needed on mercury:selenium interactions and mutual bioavailability, and on the relationship between molar ratios and health outcomes. Further, people who are selenium deficient may be more at risk from mercury toxicity than others. PMID:23541437

  8. Effects of strain rate, mixing ratio, and stress-strain definition on the mechanical behavior of the polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS) material as related to its biological applications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khanafer, Khalil; Duprey, Ambroise; Schlicht, Marty; Berguer, Ramon

    2009-04-01

    Tensile tests on Polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS) materials were conducted to illustrate the effects of mixing ratio, definition of the stress-strain curve, and the strain rate on the elastic modulus and stress-strain curve. PDMS specimens were prepared according to the ASTM standards for elastic materials. Our results indicate that the physiological elastic modulus depends strongly on the definition of the stress-strain curve, mixing ratio, and the strain rate. For various mixing ratios and strain rates, true stress-strain definition results in higher stress and elastic modulus compared with engineering stress-strain and true stress-engineering strain definitions. The elastic modulus increases as the mixing ratio increases up-to 9:1 ratio after which the elastic modulus begins to decrease even as the mixing ratio continues to increase. The results presented in this study will be helpful to assist the design of in vitro experiments to mimic blood flow in arteries and to understand the complex interaction between blood flow and the walls of arteries using PDMS elastomer.

  9. Evaluation of waist-to-height ratio to predict 5 year cardiometabolic risk in sub-Saharan African adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ware, L J; Rennie, K L; Kruger, H S; Kruger, I M; Greeff, M; Fourie, C M T; Huisman, H W; Scheepers, J D W; Uys, A S; Kruger, R; Van Rooyen, J M; Schutte, R; Schutte, A E

    2014-08-01

    Simple, low-cost central obesity measures may help identify individuals with increased cardiometabolic disease risk, although it is unclear which measures perform best in African adults. We aimed to: 1) cross-sectionally compare the accuracy of existing waist-to-height ratio (WHtR) and waist circumference (WC) thresholds to identify individuals with hypertension, pre-diabetes, or dyslipidaemia; 2) identify optimal WC and WHtR thresholds to detect CVD risk in this African population; and 3) assess which measure best predicts 5-year CVD risk. Black South Africans (577 men, 942 women, aged >30years) were recruited by random household selection from four North West Province communities. Demographic and anthropometric measures were taken. Recommended diagnostic thresholds (WC > 80 cm for women, >94 cm for men; WHtR > 0.5) were evaluated to predict blood pressure, fasting blood glucose, lipids, and glycated haemoglobin measured at baseline and 5 year follow up. Women were significantly more overweight than men at baseline (mean body mass index (BMI) women 27.3 ± 7.4 kg/m(2), men 20.9 ± 4.3 kg/m(2)); median WC women 81.9 cm (interquartile range 61-103), men 74.7 cm (63-87 cm), all P women, both WC and WHtR significantly predicted all cardiometabolic risk factors after 5 years. In men, even after adjusting WC threshold based on ROC analysis, WHtR better predicted overall 5-year risk. Neither measure predicted hypertension in men. The WHtR threshold of >0.5 appears to be more consistently supported and may provide a better predictor of future cardiometabolic risk in sub-Saharan Africa. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. [The optimal cutoff value of waist-to-height ratio in Chinese: based on cardiovascular risk and metabolic disease].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, A H; Xu, S Y; Ming, J; Zhou, J; Zhang, W C; Hao, P R; Ji, Q H

    2017-11-01

    Objective: Waist-to-height ratio (WHtR), a measurement of the distribution of body fat, correlated with abdominal obesity indicating that it might be a better predictor of cardiovascular risk and metabolic disease. We, therefore, evaluated optimal WHtR cutoff points according to the risk of framingham risk score (FRS) and metabolic syndrome (MS) in Chinese. Methods: The subjects were from China National Diabetes and Metabolic Disorders Survey during 2007-2008. Receiver operating characteristic analysis was used to examine the optimal cutoff values of WHtR according to the risk of FRS and MS. Results: A total of 27 820 women and 18 419 men were included in the evaluation. The average age was (45.0±13.7) years. The proportions of FRS ≥10% and MS increased with WHtR both in men and women. The cutoff points of WHtR for the risk of FRS ≥10% and MS were 0.51, 0.52 in men, and 0.52, 0.53 in women, respectively. When FRS ≥10% and MS were taken into consideration with a certain weights, the pooled cutoffs of WHtR were 0.51 in men, and 0.53 in women, respectively. By using the similar method, the optimized cutoff points were 0.52, 0.51, 0.50 for men and 0.51, 0.53, 0.54 for women in age group 20-39, 40-59 and ≥60 years, respectively. Conclusions: The optimal cutoffs of WHtR are 0.51 in men, and 0.53 in women for FRS≥10% in combination with MS indicating that this WHtR cutoff points might be used as indexes to evaluate obesity and risk of obesity-related diseases.

  11. The Effect of Growth Temperature and V/III Flux Ratio of MOCVD Antimony Based Semiconductors on Growth Rate and Surface Morphology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ramelan Ari Handono

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Epitaxial Alx Ga1-x Sb layers on GaSb and GaAs substrates have been grown by atmospheric pressure metalorganic chemical vapor deposition using TMAl, TMGa and TMSb. Nomarski microscope and a profiler were employed to examine the surface morphology and growth rate of the samples. We report the effect of growth temperature and V/III flux ratio on growth rate and surface morphology. Growth temperatures in the range of 520°C and 680°C and V/III ratios from 1 to 5 have been investigated. A growth rate activation energy of 0.73 eV was found. At low growth temperatures between 520 and 540°C, the surface morphology is poor due to antimonide precipitates associated with incomplete decomposition of the TMSb. For layers grown on GaAs at 580°C and 600°C with a V/III ratio of 3 a high quality surface morphology is typical, with a mirror-like surface and good composition control. It was found that a suitable growth temperature and V/III flux ratio was beneficial for producing good AlGaSb layers. Undoped AlGaSb grown at 580°C with a V/III flux ratio of 3 at the rate of 3.5 μm/hour shows p-type conductivity with smooth surface morphology

  12. Medicine and ionizing rays: a help sheet in analysing risks in high rate curietherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gauron, C.

    2009-01-01

    This document proposes a synthesis of useful knowledge for radioprotection in the case of high rate curietherapy. Several aspects are considered: the concerned personnel, the course of treatment procedures, the hazards, the identification of the risk associated with ionizing radiation, the risk assessment and the determination of exposure levels, the strategy to control the risks (reduction of risks, technical measures concerning the installation or the personnel, teaching and information, prevention and medical monitoring), and risk control assessment

  13. Medicine and ionizing rays: a help sheet in analysing risks in pulsed rate curietherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gauron, C.

    2009-01-01

    This document proposes a synthesis of useful knowledge for radioprotection in the case of pulsed rate curietherapy. Several aspects are considered: the concerned personnel, the course of treatment procedures, the hazards, the identification of the risk associated with ionizing radiation, the risk assessment and the determination of exposure levels, the strategy to control the risks (reduction of risks, technical measures concerning the installation or the personnel, teaching and information, prevention and medical monitoring), and risk control assessment

  14. Reducing Monte Carlo error in the Bayesian estimation of risk ratios using log-binomial regression models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salmerón, Diego; Cano, Juan A; Chirlaque, María D

    2015-08-30

    In cohort studies, binary outcomes are very often analyzed by logistic regression. However, it is well known that when the goal is to estimate a risk ratio, the logistic regression is inappropriate if the outcome is common. In these cases, a log-binomial regression model is preferable. On the other hand, the estimation of the regression coefficients of the log-binomial model is difficult owing to the constraints that must be imposed on these coefficients. Bayesian methods allow a straightforward approach for log-binomial regression models and produce smaller mean squared errors in the estimation of risk ratios than the frequentist methods, and the posterior inferences can be obtained using the software WinBUGS. However, Markov chain Monte Carlo methods implemented in WinBUGS can lead to large Monte Carlo errors in the approximations to the posterior inferences because they produce correlated simulations, and the accuracy of the approximations are inversely related to this correlation. To reduce correlation and to improve accuracy, we propose a reparameterization based on a Poisson model and a sampling algorithm coded in R. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  15. Possible Association of High Urinary Magnesium and Taurine to Creatinine Ratios with Metabolic Syndrome Risk Reduction in Australian Aboriginals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Atsumi Hamada

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Because of the epidemic of metabolic syndrome (MS in Australian Aboriginals known for their higher cardiovascular mortality and shorter life expectancy, we analyzed the possible relationship of their MS risks with the current dietary custom. Methods. The subjects were 84 people aged 16–79 years. The health examination was conducted according to the basic protocol of WHO-CARDIAC (Cardiovascular Diseases and Alimentary Comparison Study. Results. The highest prevalence among MS risks was abdominal obesity (over 60%. After controlling for age and sex, the odds of obesity decreased significantly with high level of urinary magnesium/creatinine ratio (Mg/cre (OR, 0.11; 95% CI, 0.02–0.57; P<.05. The significant inverse associations of fat intake with Mg/cre and of fast food intake with urinary taurine/creatinine ratio were revealed. Conclusions. The high prevalence of obesity in the Aboriginal people of this area may partly be due to the reduction of beneficial nutrients intake including Mg and taurine.

  16. NMR metabolomic analysis of dairy cows reveals milk glycerophosphocholine to phosphocholine ratio as prognostic biomarker for risk of ketosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klein, Matthias S; Buttchereit, Nina; Miemczyk, Sebastian P; Immervoll, Ann-Kathrin; Louis, Caridad; Wiedemann, Steffi; Junge, Wolfgang; Thaller, Georg; Oefner, Peter J; Gronwald, Wolfram

    2012-02-03

    Ketosis is a common metabolic disease in dairy cows. Diagnostic markers for ketosis such as acetone and beta-hydroxybutyric acid (BHBA) are known, but disease prediction remains an unsolved challenge. Milk is a steadily available biofluid and routinely collected on a daily basis. This high availability makes milk superior to blood or urine samples for diagnostic purposes. In this contribution, we show that high milk glycerophosphocholine (GPC) levels and high ratios of GPC to phosphocholine (PC) allow for the reliable selection of healthy and metabolically stable cows for breeding purposes. Throughout lactation, high GPC values are connected with a low ketosis incidence. During the first month of lactation, molar GPC/PC ratios equal or greater than 2.5 indicate a very low risk for developing ketosis. This threshold was validated for different breeds (Holstein-Friesian, Brown Swiss, and Simmental Fleckvieh) and for animals in different lactations, with observed odds ratios between 1.5 and 2.38. In contrast to acetone and BHBA, these measures are independent of the acute disease status. A possible explanation for the predictive effect is that GPC and PC are measures for the ability to break down phospholipids as a fatty acid source to meet the enhanced energy requirements of early lactation.

  17. Is Waist-to-Height Ratio a Better Obesity Risk-Factor Indicator for Puerto Rican Children than is BMI or Waist Circumference?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rivera-Soto, Winna T; Rodríguez-Figueroa, Linnette

    2016-03-01

    Puerto Rican children could have a higher prevalence of obesity, compared to US children or even to US Hispanic children. Obese youths are more likely to have risk factors for cardiovascular conditions, such as hypertension. Although BMI provides a simple, convenient measurement of obesity, it does not measure body fat distribution, associated with mortality and morbidity. Waist circumference (WC) and waist-to-height ratio (WHtR) have been suggested to estimate obesity health risks. This study aimed to explore the association of a single blood pressure reading with 3 different obesity indicators (WC, BMI, and WHtR). A representative sample of students (first to sixth grade) from public and private schools in Puerto Rico was selected. The sample size consisted of 249 students, representing a 63% response rate. According to the sex-specific BMIs, approximately 38.1% of the children were obese or overweight. The prevalence of obesity was slightly higher when determined using WHtR but lower when using WC as the overweight indicator. The prevalence of high blood pressure among students was 12.5%; an additional 11.3% of the students were classified as possible prehypertensive. Regardless of the weight indicator used, overweight children were shown to have a higher risk of pre-hypertension/hypertension (as defined by a single BP measure) than were non-overweight children. The odds for high blood pressure were almost 3 times higher using WHtR. Logistic regression showed a stronger relationship between WHtR and the risk of pre-hypertension/hypertension than that between the former and either BMI or WC. This study suggests the possibility of higher prevalence of high blood pressure in obese Puerto Rican children. The waist-to height ratio could be the best indicator to measure obesity and potential hypertension in Puerto Rican children.

  18. Effects of aspect ratio and specimen size on uniaxial failure stress of iron green bodies at high strain rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kuroyanagi Yuki

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Powder metallurgy is used for the production of a number of mechanical parts and is an essential production method. These are great advantages such as product cost effectiveness and product uniqueness. In general, however parts created by powder metallurgy have low strength because of low density. In order to increase strength as well as density, new techniques such as high-velocity-compaction (HVC was developed and further investigation has been conducted on improvement of techniques and optimum condition using computer simulation. In this study, the effects of aspect ratio and specimen size of iron green bodies on failure strength of uniaxial compression and failure behavior were examined using a split Hopkinson pressure Bar. The diameters of specimens were 12.5 mm and 25 mm the aspect ratios (thickness/diameter were 0.8 and 1.2.

  19. Recurrent rates and risk factors associated with recurrent painful bullous keratopathy after primary phototherapeutic keratectomy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kasetsuwan N

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Ngamjit Kasetsuwan, Kanokorn Sakpisuttivanit, Usanee Reinprayoon, Vilavun Puangsricharern Department of Ophthalmology, Faculty of Medicine, Chulalongkorn University and King Chulalongkorn Memorial Hospital, Bangkok, Thailand Objective: To assess the recurrent rate, mean survival time, and risk factors associated with recurrent painful bullous keratopathy (BK after primary treatment with phototherapeutic keratectomy.Methods: Medical records from 72 patients (72 eyes who had phototherapeutic keratectomy for painful BK were evaluated. Data for sex, age, duration of BK, associated ocular and systemic diseases (hypertension, diabetes mellitus, ischemic heart disease, asthma, dyslipidemia, and rheumatoid arthritis, frequency and degree of pain (grade 1–3, visual acuity, corneal thickness, intraocular pressure, and laser setting were extracted and analyzed.Results: The mean age of the patients was 64.2±11.4 years. The mean preoperative duration of BK was 15.0±11.0 months. Most patients had pseudophakic BK (69.40%. Majority of the cases had grade 3 degree of pain (48.60%. Glaucoma and hypertension were markedly found among these patients (51.40% and 19.40%, respectively. Preoperative mean intraocular pressure and corneal thickness were 13.70±4.95 mmHg and 734.1±83.80 µm, respectively. The mean laser diameter and depth were 8.36±1.22 mm and 38.89±8.81 µm, respectively. Systemic disease was significantly associated with the risk for developing recurrent painful BK (P=0.022, hazard ratio [HR] 1.673, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.08–2.58. The overall recurrent rate was 51%. The average duration time of recurrent painful BK was 17.3±12.9 months (range 1–50 months. The median survival time before recurrence was 29.0±6.6 months.Conclusion: Systemic disease was found to be the only risk factor significantly associated with the development of recurrent painful BK. Low recurrent rate and long mean survival time showed that phototherapeutic

  20. Impact of the New Jersey all-payer rate-setting system: an analysis of financial ratios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosko, M D

    1989-01-01

    Although prospective payment may contain costs, many analysts are concerned about the unintended consequences of rate regulation. This article presents the results of a case-study analysis of the New Jersey rate-setting programs during the period 1977-1985. Using measures of profitability, liquidity, and leverage, data for New Jersey, the Northeast, and the United States as a whole are used to contrast the impact of two forms of prospective payment. After attempting alternative cost-containment methods, the New Jersey Department of Health implemented an all-payer system in which prospective rates of compensation were established for DRGs. The new rate-setting system was designed to control costs, improve access to care, maintain quality of services, ensure financial viability of efficient providers, and limit the payment differentials associated with cost shifting. The results of this study have a number of implications for the evaluation of all-payer rate regulation. First, although the New Jersey all-payer system was more successful than the partial-payer program in restraining the rate of increase in cost per case, savings were achieved without adversely affecting the viability of regulated hospitals. Second, the large differentials among payers that were associated with the partial-payer program were reduced dramatically by the all-payer program. Third, using the financial position of inner-city hospitals relative to suburban hospitals as a measure of equity, the all-payer system appeared to be a fairer method of regulating rates.

  1. Relationship Between the Urine Flow Rate and Risk of Contrast-Induced Nephropathy After Emergent Percutaneous Coronary Intervention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yong; Lin, Lixia; Li, Yun; Li, Hualong; Wu, Deng-Xuan; Zhao, Jian-bin; Lian, Dan; Zhou, Yingling; Liu, Yuanhui; Ye, Piao; Ran, Peng; Duan, Chongyang; Chen, Shiqun; Chen, Pingyan; Xian, Ying; Chen, Jiyan; Tan, Ning

    2015-12-01

    A low urine flow rate is a marker of acute kidney injury. However, it is unclear whether a high urine flow rate is associated with a reduced risk of contrast-induced nephropathy (CIN) in high-risk patients. We conducted this study to evaluate the predictive value of the urine flow rate for the risk of CIN following emergent percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). We prospectively examined 308 patients undergoing emergent PCI who provided consent. The predictive value of the 24-hour postprocedural urine flow rate, adjusted by weight (UR/W, mL/kg/h) and divided into quartiles, for the risk of CIN was assessed using multivariate logistic regression analysis. The cumulative incidence of CIN was 24.4%. In particular, CIN was observed in 29.5%, 19.5%, 16.7%, and 32.0% of cases in the UR/W quartile (Q)-1 (≤0.94  mL/kg/h), Q2 (0.94-1.30  mL/kg/h), Q3 (1.30-1.71  mL/kg/h), and Q4 (≥1.71  mL/kg/h), respectively. Moreover, in-hospital death was noted in 7.7%, 3.9%, 5.1%, and 5.3% of patients in Q1, Q2, Q3, and Q4, respectively. After adjusting for potential confounding predictors, multivariate analysis indicated that compared with the moderate urine flow rate quartiles (Q2 + Q3), a high urine flow rate (Q4) (odds ratio [OR], 2.69; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.27-5.68; P = 0.010) and low urine flow rate (Q1) (OR, 2.23; 95% CI, 1.03-4.82; P = 0.041) were significantly associated with an increased risk of CIN. Moreover, a moderate urine flow rate (0.94-1.71  mL/kg/h) was significantly associated with a decreased risk of mortality. Our data suggest that higher and lower urine flow rates were significantly associated with an increased risk of CIN after emergent PCI, and a moderate urine flow rate (0.94-1.71  mL/kg/h) may be associated with a decreased risk of CIN with a good long-term prognosis after emergent PCI.

  2. Clot lysis time and the risk of myocardial infarction and ischaemic stroke in young women; results from the RATIO case-control study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Siegerink, Bob; Meltzer, Mirjam E.; de Groot, Philip G.; Algra, Ale; Lisman, Ton; Rosendaal, Frits R.

    Reduced overall fibrinolytic capacity increases the risk of myocardial infarction (MI), as demonstrated in studies with predominantly male participants. We determined the influence of altered fibrinolysis on the risk of MI and ischaemic stroke (IS) in young women. The RATIO (Risk of Arterial

  3. Overview of a benefit/risk ratio optimized for a radiation emitting device used in non-destructive testing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maharaj, H.P., E-mail: H_P_Maharaj@hc-sc.gc.ca [Health Canada, Dept. of Health, Consumer and Clinical Radiaton Protection Bureau, Ottawa, Ontario (Canada)

    2016-03-15

    This paper aims to provide an overview of an optimized benefit/risk ratio for a radiation emitting device. The device, which is portable, hand-held, and open-beam x-ray tube based, is utilized by a wide variety of industries for purposes of determining elemental or chemical analyses of materials in-situ based on fluorescent x-rays. These analyses do not cause damage or permanent alteration of the test materials and are considered a non-destructive test (NDT). Briefly, the key characteristics, principles of use and radiation hazards associated with the Hay device are presented and discussed. In view of the potential radiation risks, a long term strategy that incorporates risk factors and guiding principles intended to mitigate the radiation risks to the end user was considered and applied. Consequently, an operator certification program was developed on the basis of an International Standards Organization (ISO) standard (ISO 20807:2004) and in collaboration with various stake holders and was implemented by a federal national NDT certification body several years ago. It comprises a written radiation safety examination and hands-on training with the x-ray device. The operator certification program was recently revised and the changes appear beneficial. There is a fivefold increase in operator certification (Levels 1 a nd 2) to date compared with earlier years. Results are favorable and promising. An operational guidance document is available to help mitigate radiation risks. Operator certification in conjunction with the use of the operational guidance document is prudent, and is recommended for end users of the x-ray device. Manufacturers and owners of the x-ray devices will also benefit from the operational guidance document. (author)

  4. Overview of a benefit/risk ratio optimized for a radiation emitting device used in non-destructive testing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maharaj, H.P.

    2016-01-01

    This paper aims to provide an overview of an optimized benefit/risk ratio for a radiation emitting device. The device, which is portable, hand-held, and open-beam x-ray tube based, is utilized by a wide variety of industries for purposes of determining elemental or chemical analyses of materials in-situ based on fluorescent x-rays. These analyses do not cause damage or permanent alteration of the test materials and are considered a non-destructive test (NDT). Briefly, the key characteristics, principles of use and radiation hazards associated with the Hay device are presented and discussed. In view of the potential radiation risks, a long term strategy that incorporates risk factors and guiding principles intended to mitigate the radiation risks to the end user was considered and applied. Consequently, an operator certification program was developed on the basis of an International Standards Organization (ISO) standard (ISO 20807:2004) and in collaboration with various stake holders and was implemented by a federal national NDT certification body several years ago. It comprises a written radiation safety examination and hands-on training with the x-ray device. The operator certification program was recently revised and the changes appear beneficial. There is a fivefold increase in operator certification (Levels 1 a nd 2) to date compared with earlier years. Results are favorable and promising. An operational guidance document is available to help mitigate radiation risks. Operator certification in conjunction with the use of the operational guidance document is prudent, and is recommended for end users of the x-ray device. Manufacturers and owners of the x-ray devices will also benefit from the operational guidance document. (author)

  5. Vaccination rates among the general adult population and high-risk groups in the United States.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kathy Annunziata

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: In order to adequately assess the effectiveness of vaccination in helping to control vaccine-preventable infectious disease, it is important to identify the adherence and uptake of risk-based recommendations. METHODS: The current project includes data from five consecutive datasets of the National Health and Wellness Survey (NHWS: 2007 through 2011. The NHWS is an annual, Internet-based health questionnaire, administered to a nationwide sample of adults (aged 18 or older which included items on vaccination history as well as high-risk group status. Vaccination rates and characteristics of vaccinees were reported descriptively. Logistic regressions were conducted to predict vaccination behavior from sociodemographics and risk-related variables. RESULTS: The influenza vaccination rate for all adults 18 years and older has increased significantly from 28.0% to 36.2% from 2007 to 2011 (ps<.05. Compared with those not at high risk (25.1%, all high-risk groups were vaccinated at a higher rate, from 36.8% (pregnant women to 69.7% (those with renal/kidney disease; however, considerable variability among high-risk groups was observed. Vaccination rates among high-risk groups for other vaccines varied considerably though all were below 50%, with the exception of immunocompromised respondents (57.5% for the hepatitis B vaccine and 52.5% for the pneumococcal vaccine and the elderly (50.4% for the pneumococcal. Multiple risk factors were associated with increased rate of vaccination for most vaccines. Significant racial/ethnic differences with influenza, hepatitis, and herpes zoster vaccination rates were also observed (ps<.05. CONCLUSIONS: Rates of influenza vaccination have increased over time. Rates varied by high-risk status, demographics, and vaccine. There was a pattern of modest vaccination rate increases for individuals with multiple risk factors. However, there were relatively low rates of vaccination for most risk-based recommendations

  6. Stochastic Discount Factor Approach to International Risk-Sharing: Evidence from Fixed Exchange Rate Episodes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hadzi-Vaskov, M.; Kool, C.J.M.

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents evidence of the stochastic discount factor approach to international risk-sharing applied to fixed exchange rate regimes. We calculate risk-sharing indices for two episodes of fixed or very rigid exchange rates: the Eurozone before and after the introduction of the Euro, and

  7. Study the rate of fertility and risk factors of schizophrenia in Najaf, Iraq

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study is designed to investigate the main risk factors, which increased the incidence of schizophrenia and the rate of fertility in patients measuring sex hormones (testosterone and estrogen) and prolactin hormone. The aim of study was to evaluate the fertility rate and risk factors of schizophrenia. Blood samples were ...

  8. Contractualist reasoning, HIV cure clinical trials, and the moral (ir)relevance of the risk/benefit ratio.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Rahul

    2017-02-01

    Institutional review boards (IRB) normally require of a morally defensible clinical trial that any trial participant will benefit from the inquiry, or at least not be exposed to a significant risk of having their prospects worsened by participating. Stage 1 HIV cure trials tend not to meet this requirement. Does that show them to be morally indefensible? Utilitarian thinking about this question supports a negative answer. But one might reasonably expect a Kantian moral theory to support the conclusion that exposing trial participants to a significant risk of their prospects being worsened by their participation to be morally indefensible, on grounds that this would be a clear case of using a person as a mere means. In this paper, I argue, drawing on Kantian contractualist thinking, that requiring the risk/benefit ratio for participants be positive if a trial is to be morally defensible does not in fact gain any support from Kantian thinking about morality. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  9. Risk of Interest Rates at the Level of Commercial Banks in Romania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sbârcea Ioana Raluca

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The banking system in Romania is a banking system under development, subject to fluctuations that exist on the market more than on more developed banking systems, fluctuations that can generate losses for banks if they are not properly managed. The losses that may be generated by these fluctuations, known as market risk, refer to the significant fluctuations in three indicators, namely the interest rate, the exchange rate and the asset price. In this article, I will analyse the interest rate risk from a conceptual point of view and the indicators that mitigate this risk. The analysis also contains a study of this risk among commercial banks in the system to highlight the level of risk and possible effects of its manifestation. I calculated and analysed the interest rate risk indicators, individually for the first three banks in the system, but also to comparatively, in order to highlight the existing differences.

  10. Effect of Birth Cohort on Risk of Hip Fracture: Age-Specific Incidence Rates in the Framingham Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samelson, Elizabeth J.; Zhang, Yuqing; Kiel, Douglas P.; Hannan, Marian T.; Felson, David T.

    2002-01-01

    Objectives. This study examined the effect of birth cohort on incidence rates of hip fracture among women and men in the Framingham Study. Methods. Age-specific incidence rates of first hip fracture were presented according to tertile of year of birth for 5209 participants of the Framingham Study, a population-based cohort followed since 1948. Sex-specific incidence rate ratios were calculated by Cox regression to assess the relation between birth cohort and hip fracture incidence. Results. An increasing trend in hip fracture incidence rates was observed with year of birth for women (trend, P = .05) and men (trend, P = .03). Relative to those born from 1887 to 1900 (incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 1.0), age-specific incidence rates were greatest in the most recent birth cohort, born from 1911 to 1921 (IRR = 1.4 for women, IRR = 2.0 for men), and intermediate in those born from 1901 to 1910 (IRR = 1.2 for women, IRR = 1.5 for men). Conclusions. Results suggest risk of hip fracture is increasing for successive birth cohorts. Projections that fail to account for the increase in rates associated with birth cohort underestimate the future public health impact of hip fracture in the United States. PMID:11988460

  11. Parameter effect of a phase change thermal energy storage unit with one shell and one finned tube on its energy efficiency ratio and heat storage rate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Wei-Wei; Wang, Liang-Bi; He, Ya-Ling

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • The parameter effect on the performance of PCTES unit using fins is reported. • The configurations of PCTES unit using fins in optimum performance are suggested. • Two parameters to indicate the effects of PCM and tube material properties are found. • The working conditions of PCTES unit using fins in optimum performance are analyzed. - Abstract: The performance of a phase change thermal energy storage (PCTES) unit using circular finned tube is affected by many parameters. Thorough studies of the parameter effect on the performance of PCTES unit are strongly required in its optimum design process. Based on a reported energy efficiency ratio and a newly defined parameter named the heat storage rate, the parameter effect on the performance of PCTES unit using circular finned tube is numerically investigated. When the fin pitch is greater than 4 times of the inner radius of the tube, the fin height and the fin thickness have little effect on the energy efficiency ratio and the heat storage rate. When the fin pitch is small, the performance of PCTES unit becomes better using large fin height and width. The energy efficiency ratio and the heat storage rate are more sensitive to the outer tube diameter. The performance of PCTES unit using circular finned tube is best when water is used as the heat transfer fluid (HTF). When the fluid flow of HTF is in a laminar state, the energy efficiency ratio and the heat storage rate are larger than that in a turbulent state.

  12. Environmental impacts of genetic improvement of growth rate and feed conversion ratio in fish farming under rearing density and nitrogen output limitations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Besson, M.; Aubin, J.; Komen, H.; Poelman, M.; Quillet, E.; Vandeputte, M.; Arendonk, Van J.A.M.; Boer, De I.J.M.

    2016-01-01

    Today, fish farming faces an increasing demand in fish products, but also various environmental challenges. Genetic improvement in growth rate and feed conversion ratio is known to be an efficient way to increase production and increase efficiency in fish farming. The environmental consequences

  13. Gamma-ray spectrometric measurements of fission rate ratios between fresh and burnt fuel following irradiation in a zero-power reactor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kröhnert, H., E-mail: hanna.kroehnert@ensi.ch [Paul Scherrer Institut (PSI), CH-5232 Villigen (Switzerland); École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL), CH-1015 Lausanne (Switzerland); Perret, G.; Murphy, M.F. [Paul Scherrer Institut (PSI), CH-5232 Villigen (Switzerland); Chawla, R. [Paul Scherrer Institut (PSI), CH-5232 Villigen (Switzerland); École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL), CH-1015 Lausanne (Switzerland)

    2013-01-11

    The gamma-ray activity from short-lived fission products has been measured in fresh and burnt UO{sub 2} fuel samples after irradiation in a zero-power reactor. For the first time, short-lived gamma-ray activity from fresh and burnt fuel has been compared and fresh-to-burnt fuel fission rate ratios have been derived. For the measurements, well characterized fresh and burnt fuel samples, with burn-ups up to 46 GWd/t, were irradiated in the zero-power research reactor PROTEUS. Fission rate ratios were derived based on the counting of high-energy gamma-rays above 2200 keV, in order to discriminate against the high intrinsic activity of the burnt fuel. This paper presents the measured fresh-to-burnt fuel fission rate ratios based on the {sup 142}La (2542 keV), {sup 89}Rb (2570 keV), {sup 138}Cs (2640 keV) and {sup 95}Y (3576 keV) high-energy gamma-ray lines. Comparisons are made with the results of Monte Carlo modeling of the experimental configuration, carried out using the MCNPX code. The measured fission rate ratios have 1σ uncertainties of 1.7–3.4%. The comparisons with calculated predictions show an agreement within 1–3σ, although there appears to be a slight bias (∼3%).

  14. Clinical usefulness of lipid ratios, visceral adiposity indicators, and the triglycerides and glucose index as risk markers of insulin resistance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, Tingting; Yuan, Gang; Zhang, Muxun; Zhou, Xinrong; Sun, Xingxing; Yu, Xuefeng

    2014-10-20

    To directly compare traditional lipid ratios (total cholesterol [TC]/high density lipoprotein cholesterol [HDL-C], non-HDL-C/HDL-C, low density lipoprotein cholesterol [LDL-C]/HDL-C, and triglycerides [TG]/HDL-C), apolipoprotein B (apoB)/apolipoprotein A-I (apoA-I) ratio, visceral adiposity index (VAI), lipid accumulation product (LAP), and the product of TG and fasting glucose (TyG) for strength and independence as risk factors for insulin resistance (IR). We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of 7629 Chinese adults using data from the China Health and Nutrition Survey 2009. For all lipid ratios (traditional lipid ratios and apoB/apoA-I), among both sexes, TG/HDL-C explained the most additional percentage of variation in HOMA-IR (2.9% in men, and 2.3% in women); for all variables of interest, the variability in HOMA-IR explained by VAI and TG/HDL-C were comparable; TyG had the most significant association with HOMA-IR, which explained 9.1% for men and 7.8% for women of the variability in HOMA-IR. Logistic regression analysis showed the similar patterns. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis showed that, among both sexes, TG/HDL-C was a better discriminator of IR than apoB/apoA-I; the area under the ROC curve (AUC) for VAI (0.695 in men and 0.682 in women) was greater than that for TG/HDL-C (AUC 0.665 in men and 0.664 in women); TyG presented the greatest value of AUC (0.709 in men and 0.711 in women). The apoB/apoA-I performs no better than any of the traditional lipid ratios in correlating with IR. The TG/HDL-C, VAI and TyG are better markers for early identification of IR individuals.

  15. GAMMA-RAY BURST AND STAR FORMATION RATES: THE PHYSICAL ORIGIN FOR THE REDSHIFT EVOLUTION OF THEIR RATIO

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trenti, Michele; Perna, Rosalba; Tacchella, Sandro

    2013-01-01

    Gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) and galaxies at high redshift represent complementary probes of the star formation history of the universe. In fact, both the GRB rate and the galaxy luminosity density are connected to the underlying star formation. Here, we combine a star formation model for the evolution of the galaxy luminosity function from z = 0 to z = 10 with a metallicity-dependent efficiency for GRB formation to simultaneously predict the comoving GRB rate. Our model sheds light on the physical origin of the empirical relation often assumed between GRB rate and luminosity density-derived star formation rate: n-dot GRB (z)=ε(z)× ρ-dot * obs (z), with ε(z)∝(1 + z) 1.2 . At z ∼ ☉ ) ☉ ) > 0. Models with total suppression of GRB formation at log (Z/Z ☉ ) ∼> 0 are disfavored. At z ∼> 4, most of the star formation happens in low-metallicity hosts with nearly saturated efficiency of GRB production per unit stellar mass. However, at the same epoch, galaxy surveys miss an increasing fraction of the predicted luminosity density because of flux limits, driving an accelerated evolution of ε(z) compared to the empirical power-law fit from lower z. Our findings are consistent with the non-detections of GRB hosts in ultradeep imaging at z > 5, and point toward current galaxy surveys at z > 8 only observing the top 15%-20% of the total luminosity density

  16. Transitional rates, risk and the Ontario wholesale power market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rothman, M.

    2001-01-01

    Navigant Consulting is a large investor-owned management consulting firm specializing in energy-based and other networked and regulated industries across Canada. The company works with clients to create delivery and protect shareholder value in the face of uncertainty and change. This presentation discussed the issue of price volatility in competitive electricity markets. The points to keep in mind for pricing in competitive power markets is that: (1) electricity should be generated simultaneously with use, (2) rates in administered markets are average over some time period, (3) competitive pool markets do not average costs, (4) in competitive pool markets, prices are set in very short (hourly or less) intervals, (5) prices in competitive markets are more volatile than in administered markets for both economic and market structure reasons, and (6) the degree of volatility and price levels can change quickly. The Ontario power market was also discussed with reference to price volatility in Ontario and what this means for electricity customers. tabs., figs

  17. Risk management under a two-factor model of the term structure of interest rates

    OpenAIRE

    Manuel Moreno

    1997-01-01

    This paper presents several applications to interest rate risk management based on a two-factor continuous-time model of the term structure of interest rates previously presented in Moreno (1996). This model assumes that default free discount bond prices are determined by the time to maturity and two factors, the long-term interest rate and the spread (difference between the long-term rate and the short-term (instantaneous) riskless rate). Several new measures of ``generalized duration" are p...

  18. Effect of pH and Fe/U ratio on the U(VI) removal rate by the synergistic effect of Fe(II) and O2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Yukui; Luo, Yingfeng; Fang, Qi; Xie, Yanpei; Wang, Zhihong; Zhu, Xiangyu

    2018-02-01

    As for the decommissioned uranium deposits of acid in-situ leaching, both of the concentrations of U(VI) and Fe(II) are relatively high in groundwater. In the presence of O2, the oxidation of Fe(II) into Fe(III) that forms Fe-hydroxides could effectively remove U(VI) in the forms of sorption or co-precipitation. In this process, pH condition and Fe content will have a significant effect on the U(VI) removal rate by the synergistic effect of Fe(II) and O2. In the present work, a series of batch experiments were carried out to investigate the effect of pH values and Fe/U mass ratio on the U(VI) removal rate by the synergistic effect of Fe(II) and O2. Experiment results show that the removal rate of U(VI) is mainly controlled by pH and secondly by Fe/U mass ratio. In the neutral conditions with pH at 7 and 8, the removal rate of U(VI) reaches up to 90% for all solutions with different initial Fe(II) concentrations. The optimal pH for the removal rate of U(VI) is above 7. In the acidic conditions with pH below 6, the effect of Fe/U mass ratio on the removal rate of U(VI) becomes more obvious and the optimal Fe/U mass ratio for U(VI) removal is 1:2.

  19. The Exposure of Mortgage Borrowers to Interest Rate Risk, Income Risk and House Price Risk – Evidence from Swiss Loan Application Data

    OpenAIRE

    Guin, Benjamin; Brown, Martin

    2015-01-01

    We study the exposure of mortgage borrowers in Switzerland to interest rate, income and house price risks and examine how the households’ choice of risky mortgages is related to individual interest rate expectations and risk-aversion. Our analysis is based on a unique data set of household mortgage applications from September 2012 until January 2014. Our assessment of risk exposure among mortgage borrowers in Switzerland is highly sensitive to the underlying assumptions on mortgage costs, hou...

  20. Optimal Chest Compression Rate and Compression to Ventilation Ratio in Delivery Room Resuscitation: Evidence from Newborn Piglets and Neonatal Manikins

    OpenAIRE

    Solev?g, Anne Lee; Schm?lzer, Georg M.

    2017-01-01

    Cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) duration until return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) influences survival and neurologic outcomes after delivery room (DR) CPR. High quality chest compressions (CC) improve cerebral and myocardial perfusion. Improved myocardial perfusion increases the likelihood of a faster ROSC. Thus, optimizing CC quality may improve outcomes both by preserving cerebral blood flow during CPR and by reducing the recovery time. CC quality is determined by rate, CC to vent...

  1. Discount rates in risk versus money and money versus money tradeoffs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alberini, Anna; Chiabai, Aline

    2007-04-01

    We use data from a survey of residents of five Italian cities conducted in late spring 2004 to estimate the discount rates implicit in (1) money versus future risk reductions and (2) money versus money tradeoffs. We find that the mean personal discount rate is 0.3-1.7% in (1) and 8.7% in (2). The latter is lower than the discount rates estimated in comparable situations in many recent studies, greater than market interest rates in Italy at the time, and exhibits modest variation with age and gender. The discount rate implicit in money versus risk tradeoffs is within the range of estimates from studies in the United States and Europe, and does not depend on observable individual characteristics. We use split samples to investigate whether a completely abstract risk reduction - one where the risk reduction delivery has been stripped of all specifics, so that respondents should focus on the risks without being distracted by details - results in WTP and discount figures comparable to those from an identified delivery mechanism (a medical test). We find that while WTP for an immediate risk reduction is 42-73% higher with the abstract risk reduction, the discount rate in the money versus risk tradeoffs and the variance of the error term in the WTP equation are the same across the two variants of the questionnaire.

  2. Cash Flow and Discount Rate Risk in Up and Down Markets: What is actually priced?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Botshekan, M.; Kraeussl, R.G.W.; Lucas, A.

    2012-01-01

    We test whether asymmetric preferences for losses versus gains affect the prices of cash flow versus discount rate risk. We construct a return decomposition distinguishing cash flow and discount rate betas in up and down markets. Using U.S. data, we find that downside cash flow and discount rate

  3. [C-section rate in low-risk women: a useful indicator to compare hospitals attending deliveries with different risks].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Librero, Julián; Peiró, Salvador; Belda, Ana; Calabuig, Julia

    2014-01-01

    the C-section rate has been criticized as a performance indicator for not considering that different hospitals manage deliveries with diverse risks. In this work we explore the characteristics of a new indicator restricted to low C-section risk deliveries. retrospective cohort of all births (n=214,611) in all public hospitals during 2005-2010 in the Valencia Region, Spain (source: minimum basic dataset). A low-risk subpopulation consisting of women under-35, no history of c-section, between 37 and 41 gestational weeks, and with a single fetus, with cephalic presentation and normal weight (2500-3999 g) was constructed. We analyzed variability in the new indicator, its correlation with the crude indicator and, using multilevel logistic regression models, the presence of residual risks. a total of 117 589 births (58.4% of the whole deliveries) were identified as low C-section risk. The c-section rate in these women was 11.9% (24.4% for all deliveries) ranging between hospitals from 7.0% to 28.9%. The c-section rate in low-risk and total deliveries correlated strongly (r=0.88). The remaining risks in the population of low risk did not alter the hospital effect on the c-section rate. the percentage of C-section in low risk women include a high volume of deliveries, correlated with the crude indicator and residual risks are not differentially influenced by hospitals, being a useful indicator for monitoring the quality of obstetric care in the National Health System.

  4. Information Acquisition and Excessive Risk: Impact of Policy Rate and Market Volatility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Volha Audzei

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Excessive risk-taking of financial agents drew a lot of attention in the aftermath of the financial crisis. Low interest rates and subdued market volatility during the Great Moderation are sometimes blamed for stimulating risk-taking and leading to the recent financial crisis. In recent years, with many central banks around the world conducting the policy of low interest rates and mitigating market risks, it has been debatable whether this policy contributes to the building up of another credit boom. This paper addresses this issue by focusing on information acquisition by the financial agents. We build a theoretical model which captures excessive risk taking in response to changes in policy rate and market volatility. This excessive risk takes the form of an increased risk appetite of the agents, but also of decreased incentives to acquire information about risky assets. As a result, with market risk being reduced, agents tend to acquire more risk in their portfolios then they would with the higher market risk. The same forces increase portfolio risk when the safe interest rate is falling. The robustness of the results is considered with different learning rules.

  5. Triglycerides/High density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio as a cardiometabolic risk marker in children and adolescents from Mérida city, Venezuela.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguirre, Miguel; Briceño, Yajaira; Gómez-Pérez, Roald; Zerpa, Yajaira; Camacho, Nolis; Paoli, Mariela

    2018-02-01

    To determine the behavior of the triglycerides/HDL-cholesterol ratio (TG/HDL) as a cardiometabolic risk marker in children and adolescents from Mérida, Venezuela. A total of 1292 children and adolescents aged 7-18 years who attended educational institutions in the Libertador Municipality were enrolled into this study. Anthropometric measurements and blood pressure values were recorded. Fasting blood glucose, insulin and lipid levels were measured. The TG/HDL ratio, HOMA-IR, and QUICKI indexes were calculated. Subjects were categorized as with and without cardiometabolic risk based on the presence or absence of 2or more risk factors. Cut-off points for the TG/HDL ratio were determined by constructing ROC curves. Significantly higher mean TG/HDL ratios were found in pubertal (2.2 ± 1.7) as compared to prepubertal subjects (1.8 ± 1.5; P=.001), with no sex differences. Two or more risk factors were found in 14.7% (n=192) of the participants, in whom TG/HDL ratios were significantly higher as compared to those with no risk (3.5±2.9 versus 1.6±0.8 in prepubertal and 4.1 ± 3.5 versus 1.8 ± 0.9 in pubertal subjects; P=.0001). According to cardiometabolic risk, cut-off points for the TG/HDL ratio of 1.8 and 2.5 were found for prepubertal and pubertal children respectively. These cut-off points showed risks (odds ratio) higher than 2.5 for conditions such as metabolic syndrome, elevated non-HDL-C, abdominal obesity, and elevated HOMA-IR. In this sample of children and adolescents, an elevated TG/HDLc ratio was found to be a good marker for predicting cardiometabolic risk. Copyright © 2017 SEEN y SED. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  6. Gene polymorphisms and the risk of warfarin-induced bleeding complications at therapeutic international normalized ratio (INR)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pourgholi, Leyla [Department of Pathology and Laboratory Medicine, Tehran Heart Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, P.O. Box 1411713138, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Department of Pharmacology & Toxicology, School of Pharmacy, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, P.O. Box 7616911319, Kerman (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Goodarzynejad, Hamidreza [Department of Cardiac Research, Tehran Heart Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, P.O. Box 1411713138, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Mandegary, Ali [Department of Pharmacology & Toxicology, School of Pharmacy, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, P.O. Box 7616911319, Kerman (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Gastroenterology and Hepatology Research Center, Afzalipour' s Hospital, Imam Highway, P.O. Box 7616913911, Kerman (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Ziaee, Shayan [Department of Pathology and Laboratory Medicine, Tehran Heart Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, P.O. Box 1411713138, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Talasaz, Azita Hajhosseini [Department of Cardiac Research, Tehran Heart Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, P.O. Box 1411713138, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Department of Clinical Pharmacy, School of Pharmacy, Tehran University of Medical Sciences (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Jalali, Arash [Department of Cardiac Research, Tehran Heart Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, P.O. Box 1411713138, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Boroumand, Mohammadali, E-mail: maboroumand@yahoo.com [Department of Pathology and Laboratory Medicine, Tehran Heart Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, P.O. Box 1411713138, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2016-10-15

    Background: Bleeding episodes commonly occur in patients on warfarin treatment even in those within therapeutic range of international normalized ratio (INR). The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of the 8 examined polymorphisms on the risk of bleeding complications in a sample of Iranian patients. Methods: A total of 552 warfarin treated patients who maintained on a target INR level of 2.0–3.5 for at least three consecutive intervals were enrolled from those attended our anticoagulation clinics. Ninety-two bleeding events were observed in 87 patients. The presences of the examined polymorphisms were analyzed using polymerase chain reaction-based restriction fragment length polymorphism (PCR-RFLP). Results: Patients with the T allele in NQO1*2 (CT or TT genotypes) had a higher risk of bleeding than patients with the CC genotype (adjusted OR: 2.25, 95% CI: 1.37 to 3.70, P = 0.001). Those who were carriers of CYP2C9 one-variant haplotypes (*1/*2 or *1/*3) were also found to be associated with the higher risk of bleeding events. Compared to reference group (*1/*1), the odds of bleeding increased for carriers of one variant allele (*1/*2 or *1/*3) (adjusted OR: 1.75, 95% CI: 1.03 to 2.97, P = 0.039). Variant VKORC1, Factor VII, and EPHX1 genotypes were not significantly associated with the risk of bleeding events. Conclusion: The SNP C609T within NQO1 and haplotypes of CYP2C9 (1*2 or 1*3) are independently associated to bleeding complications of warfarin at normal INR. Further studies are required to confirm such associations in diverse racial and ethnic populations. - Highlights: • NQO1 C609T variant is associated with warfarin induced bleeding at therapeutic INR. • Haplotypes of CYP2C9 (1*2 or 1*3) are also associated with bleeding events. • VKORC1, Factor VII, and EPHX1 genotypes were not associated with bleeding risk.

  7. Gene polymorphisms and the risk of warfarin-induced bleeding complications at therapeutic international normalized ratio (INR)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pourgholi, Leyla; Goodarzynejad, Hamidreza; Mandegary, Ali; Ziaee, Shayan; Talasaz, Azita Hajhosseini; Jalali, Arash; Boroumand, Mohammadali

    2016-01-01

    Background: Bleeding episodes commonly occur in patients on warfarin treatment even in those within therapeutic range of international normalized ratio (INR). The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of the 8 examined polymorphisms on the risk of bleeding complications in a sample of Iranian patients. Methods: A total of 552 warfarin treated patients who maintained on a target INR level of 2.0–3.5 for at least three consecutive intervals were enrolled from those attended our anticoagulation clinics. Ninety-two bleeding events were observed in 87 patients. The presences of the examined polymorphisms were analyzed using polymerase chain reaction-based restriction fragment length polymorphism (PCR-RFLP). Results: Patients with the T allele in NQO1*2 (CT or TT genotypes) had a higher risk of bleeding than patients with the CC genotype (adjusted OR: 2.25, 95% CI: 1.37 to 3.70, P = 0.001). Those who were carriers of CYP2C9 one-variant haplotypes (*1/*2 or *1/*3) were also found to be associated with the higher risk of bleeding events. Compared to reference group (*1/*1), the odds of bleeding increased for carriers of one variant allele (*1/*2 or *1/*3) (adjusted OR: 1.75, 95% CI: 1.03 to 2.97, P = 0.039). Variant VKORC1, Factor VII, and EPHX1 genotypes were not significantly associated with the risk of bleeding events. Conclusion: The SNP C609T within NQO1 and haplotypes of CYP2C9 (1*2 or 1*3) are independently associated to bleeding complications of warfarin at normal INR. Further studies are required to confirm such associations in diverse racial and ethnic populations. - Highlights: • NQO1 C609T variant is associated with warfarin induced bleeding at therapeutic INR. • Haplotypes of CYP2C9 (1*2 or 1*3) are also associated with bleeding events. • VKORC1, Factor VII, and EPHX1 genotypes were not associated with bleeding risk.

  8. The impact of item order on ratings of cancer risk perception.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Kathryn L; Shelby, Rebecca A; Schwartz, Marc D; Ackerman, Josh; LaSalle, V Holland; Gelmann, Edward P; McGuire, Colleen

    2002-07-01

    Although perceived risk is central to most theories of health behavior, there is little consensus on its measurement with regard to item wording, response set, or the number of items to include. In a methodological assessment of perceived risk, we assessed the impact of changing the order of three commonly used perceived risk items: quantitative personal risk, quantitative population risk, and comparative risk. Participants were 432 men and women enrolled in an ancillary study of the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial. Three groups of consecutively enrolled participants responded to the three items in one of three question orders. Results indicated that item order was related to the perceived risk ratings of both ovarian (P Perceptions of risk were significantly lower when the comparative rating was made first. The findings suggest that compelling participants to consider their own risk relative to the risk of others results in lower ratings of perceived risk. Although the use of multiple items may provide more information than when only a single method is used, different conclusions may be reached depending on the context in which an item is assessed.

  9. ON THE INFERENCE OF THE COSMIC-RAY IONIZATION RATE ζ FROM THE HCO{sup +}-to-DCO{sup +} ABUNDANCE RATIO: THE EFFECT OF NUCLEAR SPIN

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shingledecker, Christopher N.; Le Gal, Romane; Hincelin, Ugo; Herbst, Eric [Department of Chemistry, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA 22904 (United States); Bergner, Jennifer B. [Department of Chemistry and Chemical Biology, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States); Öberg, Karin I., E-mail: shingledecker@virginia.edu [Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, 60 Garden Street, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States)

    2016-10-20

    The chemistry of dense interstellar regions was analyzed using a time-dependent gas–grain astrochemical simulation and a new chemical network that incorporates deuterated chemistry, taking into account nuclear spin states for the hydrogen chemistry and its deuterated isotopologues. With this new network, the utility of the [HCO{sup +}]/[DCO{sup +}] abundance ratio as a probe of the cosmic-ray ionization rate has been re-examined, with special attention paid to the effect of the initial value of the ortho-to-para ratio (OPR) of molecular hydrogen. After discussing the use of the probe for cold cores, we compare our results with previous theoretical and observational results for a molecular cloud close to the supernova remnant W51C, which is thought to have an enhanced cosmic-ray ionization rate ζ caused by the nearby γ -ray source. In addition, we attempt to use our approach to estimate the cosmic-ray ionization rate for L1174, a dense core with an embedded star. Beyond the previously known sensitivity of [HCO{sup +}]/[DCO{sup +}] to ζ , we demonstrate its additional dependence on the initial OPR and, secondarily, on the age of the source, its temperature, and its density. We conclude that the usefulness of the [HCO{sup +}]/[DCO{sup +}] abundance ratio in constraining the cosmic-ray ionization rate in dense regions increases with the age of the source and the ionization rate as the ratio becomes far less sensitive to the initial value of the OPR.

  10. Investigation on the effect of blending ratio and airflow rate on syngas profile produced from co-gasification of blended feedstock

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Inayat Muddasser

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Shortages of feedstock supply due to seasonal availability, high transportation costs, and lack of biomass market are creating serious problems in continues operation of bioenergy industry. Aiming at this problem, utilization of blended feedstock is proposed. In this work blends of two different biomasses (wood and coconut shells were co-gasified using externally heated downdraft gasifier. The effects of varying biomass blending ratio and airflow rate on gaseous components of syngas and its heating value were investigated. The results obtained from the experiments revealed that W20:CS80 blend yielded higher values for H2 (20 Vol.% and HHV (18 MJ/Nm3 as compared to the other blends. The higher airflow rate has a negative effect on syngas profile and heating value. The CO and CH4 were observed higher at the start of the process, however, CO was observed decreasing afterward, and the CH4 dropped to 5.0 Vol.%. The maximum H2 and CH4 were obtained at 2.5 LPM airflow rate. The process was noticed more stable at low air flow rates. The HHV was observed higher at the start of process at low airflow rate. It is concluded that low airflow rate and a higher ratio of coconut shells can improve the syngas quality during co-gasification.

  11. International hedging under concurrent risks of input/output prices and exchange rate : The case of Korean oil refinery

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yun, W C; Kim, S D [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea, Republic of)

    1997-11-01

    This study develops an international hedging model which accounts for the multiple risks of input and output prices and exchange rates. Considering a fixed production technology, we formulize simultaneous minimum variance hedge ratios, which reflects inter correlations among prices. To utilize the dynamic nature of prices, time-varying conditional procedures are specified to estimate the relevant variance and covariance matrix. The time-varying representations of the variance and covariance matrix are statistically appropriate, in general. The separate hedge ratios are similar to the simultaneous hedge ratios for alternative procedures. The ex post hedging effectiveness indicate that there are substantial reduction in the variance of returns for all the procedures. The contribution of foreign currency futures is minimal due to the low correlation between commodities and exchange rates. Based on the traditional definition of hedging effectiveness, the time-varying conditional procedure provide little gain to the hedgers over a constant procedure in terms of the mean and the variance reduction. However, the performance of conditional procedures could be improved by accounting for the potential problems: mis specification problem, inappropriate definition of hedging effectiveness, and conflicts between theoretical derivation and estimation of hedge ratios. (author). 39 refs., 6 tabs.

  12. 12 CFR 567.8 - Leverage ratio.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... anticipating or experiencing significant growth and have well-diversified risks, including no undue interest rate risk exposure, excellent asset quality, high liquidity, and good earnings. (b) For all savings... capital ratios may be required if warranted by the particular circumstances or risk profiles of an...

  13. Determination of the thermal rate coefficient, products, and branching ratios for the reaction of O/+/ /D-2/ with N2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torr, D. G.; Torr, M. R.

    1980-01-01

    Atmosphere Explorer-C satellite measurements are used to determine rate coefficients (RCs) for the following reactions: O(+)(D-2) + N2 yields N2(+) + O (reaction 1), O(+)(D-2) + N2 yields O(+)(S-4) + N2 (reaction 2), and O(+)(D-2) + N2 yields NO(+) + N (reaction 3). Results show the RC for reaction 1 to be 1 (plus 1 or minus 0.5) x 10 to the -10th cu cm per sec, for reaction 2 to be 3 (plus 1 or minus 2) x 10 to the -11th cu cm per sec, and 3 to be less than 5.5 x 10 to the -11th cu cm per sec. It is also found that the reaction of O(+)(D-2) with N2 does not constitute a detectable source of NO(+) ions in the thermosphere.

  14. Moving beyond the cost-loss ratio: economic assessment of streamflow forecasts for a risk-averse decision maker

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matte, Simon; Boucher, Marie-Amélie; Boucher, Vincent; Fortier Filion, Thomas-Charles

    2017-06-01

    A large effort has been made over the past 10 years to promote the operational use of probabilistic or ensemble streamflow forecasts. Numerous studies have shown that ensemble forecasts are of higher quality than deterministic ones. Many studies also conclude that decisions based on ensemble rather than deterministic forecasts lead to better decisions in the context of flood mitigation. Hence, it is believed that ensemble forecasts possess a greater economic and social value for both decision makers and the general population. However, the vast majority of, if not all, existing hydro-economic studies rely on a cost-loss ratio framework that assumes a risk-neutral decision maker. To overcome this important flaw, this study borrows from economics and evaluates the economic value of early warning flood systems using the well-known Constant Absolute Risk Aversion (CARA) utility function, which explicitly accounts for the level of risk aversion of the decision maker. This new framework allows for the full exploitation of the information related to a forecasts' uncertainty, making it especially suited for the economic assessment of ensemble or probabilistic forecasts. Rather than comparing deterministic and ensemble forecasts, this study focuses on comparing different types of ensemble forecasts. There are multiple ways of assessing and representing forecast uncertainty. Consequently, there exist many different means of building an ensemble forecasting system for future streamflow. One such possibility is to dress deterministic forecasts using the statistics of past error forecasts. Such dressing methods are popular among operational agencies because of their simplicity and intuitiveness. Another approach is the use of ensemble meteorological forecasts for precipitation and temperature, which are then provided as inputs to one or many hydrological model(s). In this study, three concurrent ensemble streamflow forecasting systems are compared: simple statistically dressed

  15. 12 CFR 615.5182 - Interest rate risk management by associations and other Farm Credit System institutions other...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Interest rate risk management by associations... OPERATIONS, AND FUNDING OPERATIONS Risk Assessment and Management § 615.5182 Interest rate risk management by... shall comply with the requirements of §§ 615.5180 and 615.5181. The interest rate risk management...

  16. The association between social networks and self-rated risk of HIV ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Elizabeth J. Lyimo

    2014-03-18

    Mar 18, 2014 ... Bonding networks were defined as social groupings of students participating in activities ... bridging social networks and self-rated HIV risk behavior. ...... book for Theory and Research for the Sociology of Education, 241–258.

  17. Quantitative chemical exchange saturation transfer (qCEST) MRI--RF spillover effect-corrected omega plot for simultaneous determination of labile proton fraction ratio and exchange rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Phillip Zhe; Wang, Yu; Dai, ZhuoZhi; Xiao, Gang; Wu, Renhua

    2014-01-01

    Chemical exchange saturation transfer (CEST) MRI is sensitive to dilute proteins and peptides as well as microenvironmental properties. However, the complexity of the CEST MRI effect, which varies with the labile proton content, exchange rate and experimental conditions, underscores the need for developing quantitative CEST (qCEST) analysis. Towards this goal, it has been shown that omega plot is capable of quantifying paramagnetic CEST MRI. However, the use of the omega plot is somewhat limited for diamagnetic CEST (DIACEST) MRI because it is more susceptible to direct radio frequency (RF) saturation (spillover) owing to the relatively small chemical shift. Recently, it has been found that, for dilute DIACEST agents that undergo slow to intermediate chemical exchange, the spillover effect varies little with the labile proton ratio and exchange rate. Therefore, we postulated that the omega plot analysis can be improved if RF spillover effect could be estimated and taken into account. Specifically, simulation showed that both labile proton ratio and exchange rate derived using the spillover effect-corrected omega plot were in good agreement with simulated values. In addition, the modified omega plot was confirmed experimentally, and we showed that the derived labile proton ratio increased linearly with creatine concentration (p plot for quantitative analysis of DIACEST MRI. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  18. Summit CO2 emission rates by the CO2/SO2 ratio method at Kīlauea Volcano, Hawaiʻi, during a period of sustained inflation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hager, S.A.; Gerlach, T.M.; Wallace, P.J.

    2008-01-01

    The emission rate of carbon dioxide escaping from the summit of Kīlauea Volcano, Hawaiʻi, proved highly variable, averaging 4900 ± 2000 metric tons per day (t/d) in June–July 2003 during a period of summit inflation. These results were obtained by combining over 90 measurements of COSPEC-derived SO2emission rates with synchronous CO2/SO2 ratios of the volcanic gas plume along the summit COSPEC traverse. The results are lower than the CO2 emission rate of 8500 ± 300 t/d measured by the same method in 1995–1999 during a period of long-term summit deflation [Gerlach, T.M., McGee, K.A., Elias, T., Sutton, A.J. and Doukas, M.P., 2002. Carbon dioxide emission rate of Kīlauea Volcano: Implications for primary magma and the summit reservoir. Journal of Geophysical Research-Solid Earth, 107(B9): art. no.-2189.]. Analysis of the data indicates that the emission rates of the present study likely reflect changes in the magma supply rate and residence time in the summit reservoir. It is also likely that emission rates during the inflation period were heavily influenced by SO2 pulses emitted adjacent to the COSPEC traverse, which biased CO2/SO2 ratios towards low values that may be unrepresentative of the global summit gas plume. We conclude that the SO2 pulses are consequences of summit re-inflation under way since 2003 and that CO2 emission rates remain comparable to, but more variable than, those measured prior to re-inflation.

  19. Explore the Application of Financial Engineering in the Management of Exchange Rate Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang Liu

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In the background where the domestic enterprises commonly have a weak protection consciousness against the exchange rate risk, this article makes a deep analysis based on the definition of exchange rate risk and its cause. By comparison of the traditional management method of exchange rate risk with another one based on financial engineering tools, it also deeply analyzes the method to use the financial engineering technology in the management of exchange rate risk, and concludes the primary purpose of exchange rate risk management is for hedging. This article proposes an optimal analysis method in two aspects, namely the minimum risk and maximum efficiency, for the forward-based optimal hedging, and proposes an optimal analysis method of dynamic hedging for the optimal hedging of option-based tools. Based on the description of the application of financial tools in foreign exchange futures, forward contract, currency exchange and foreign exchange option, it makes an empirical analysis on the management of foreign exchange risk by taking an assumed T company as the carrier and based on the trading tools of forward foreign exchange and currency option, which describes the operation procedure of financial tools in a more direct way and proves the efficiency of the optimal analysis method of this article.

  20. Concordance of Motion Sensor and Clinician-Rated Fall Risk Scores in Older Adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elledge, Julie

    2017-12-01

    As the older adult population in the United States continues to grow, developing reliable, valid, and practical methods for identifying fall risk is a high priority. Falls are prevalent in older adults and contribute significantly to morbidity and mortality rates and rising health costs. Identifying at-risk older adults and intervening in a timely manner can reduce falls. Conventional fall risk assessment tools require a health professional trained in the use of each tool for administration and interpretation. Motion sensor technology, which uses three-dimensional cameras to measure patient movements, is promising for assessing older adults' fall risk because it could eliminate or reduce the need for provider oversight. The purpose of this study was to assess the concordance of fall risk scores as measured by a motion sensor device, the OmniVR Virtual Rehabilitation System, with clinician-rated fall risk scores in older adult outpatients undergoing physical rehabilitation. Three standardized fall risk assessments were administered by the OmniVR and by a clinician. Validity of the OmniVR was assessed by measuring the concordance between the two assessment methods. Stability of the OmniVR fall risk ratings was assessed by measuring test-retest reliability. The OmniVR scores showed high concordance with the clinician-rated scores and high stability over time, demonstrating comparability with provider measurements.

  1. [Relationship between performance rating and risk of low back pain in manufacturing line workers].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Higuchi, Yoshiyuki; Funahashi, Atsushi; Izumi, Hiroyuki; Kumashinro, Masaharu

    2012-03-01

    It is possible that the performance rating of line workers is affected by the risk factors for musculoskeletal disorders that are included in their work more so than by the actual takt time. To investigate whether performance rating relates to the risk factors for musculoskeletal disorders, we analyzed a dataset obtained from a self-administered questionnaire answered by assembly line workers (n=1579). As a result, performance rating had a significant association with unsuitable work environments, poor working postures and handling of heavy loads. The workers who reported the fastest rating had a higher exposure than others to the risk factors for occupational low back pain. The results of our study support the effectiveness of performance rating as an index of work burden.

  2. Heart rate variability based on risk stratification for type 2 diabetes mellitus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva-E-Oliveira, Julia; Amélio, Pâmela Marina; Abranches, Isabela Lopes Laguardia; Damasceno, Dênis Derly; Furtado, Fabianne

    2017-01-01

    To evaluate heart rate variability among adults with different risk levels for type 2 diabetes mellitus. The risk for type 2 diabetes mellitus was assessed in 130 participants (89 females) based on the questionnaire Finnish Diabetes Risk Score and was classified as low risk (n=26), slightly elevated risk (n=41), moderate risk (n=27) and high risk (n=32). To measure heart rate variability, a heart-rate monitor Polar S810i® was employed to obtain RR series for each individual, at rest, for 5 minutes, followed by analysis of linear and nonlinear indexes. The groups at higher risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus had significantly lower linear and nonlinear heart rate variability indexes. The individuals at high risk for type 2 diabetes mellitus have lower heart rate variability. Avaliar a variabilidade da frequência cardíaca em adultos com diferentes níveis de risco para diabetes mellitus tipo 2. O grau de risco para diabetes mellitus tipo 2 de 130 participantes (41 homens) foi avaliado pelo questionário Finnish Diabetes Risk Score. Os participantes foram classificados em baixo risco (n=26), risco levemente elevado (n=41), risco moderado (n=27) e alto risco (n=32). Para medir a variabilidade da frequência cardíaca, utilizou-se o frequencímetro Polar S810i® para obter séries de intervalo RR para cada indivíduo, em repouso, durante 5 minutos; posteriormente, realizou-se análise por meio de índices lineares e não-lineares. O grupo com maior risco para diabetes mellitus tipo 2 teve uma diminuição significante nos índices lineares e não-lineares da variabilidade da frequência cardíaca. Os resultados apontam que indivíduos com risco alto para diabetes mellitus tipo 2 tem menor variabilidade da frequência cardíaca. To evaluate heart rate variability among adults with different risk levels for type 2 diabetes mellitus. The risk for type 2 diabetes mellitus was assessed in 130 participants (89 females) based on the questionnaire Finnish Diabetes Risk Score

  3. The impact of risk management on internal and sustainable growth rate: Evidence from Tehran Stock Exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hamid Reza Vakili Fard

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Measuring the relative risk of firms has been an open discussion among researchers. There are many studies on learning how leverage may influence on growth of the firms. This article reviews the relationship between risk management, internal and sustainable growth of accepted companies in Tehran stock exchange. The survey considers three types of risks including operating, financial and compound and investigates their relationships with internal growth rate as well as sustainable growth rate. Using some regression techniques, the study has determined negative and meaningful relationships between different types of leverage on side and internal as well as sustainable growth on the other side.

  4. Risk of inflammatory bowel disease according to self-rated health, pregnancy course, and pregnancy complications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harpsøe, Maria C; Jørgensen, Kristian Tore; Frisch, Morten

    2013-01-01

    Poor self-rated health (SRH) has been connected to immunological changes, and pregnancy complications have been suggested in the etiology of autoimmune diseases including inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). We evaluated the impact of self-rated pre-pregnancy health and pregnancy course, hyperemesis......, gestational hypertension, and preeclampsia on risk of IBD....

  5. Community rating in the absence of risk equalisation: lessons from the Irish private health insurance market.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, Brian; Shinnick, Edward

    2013-04-01

    Ireland's private health insurance market operates on the basis of community rating, alongside open enrolment and lifetime cover. A risk equalisation scheme was introduced in 2003 to bolster community rating. However, in July 2008 the Irish Supreme Court set aside this scheme, on the basis of the interpretation of community rating in Irish legislation. This decision has significant implications for the Irish private health insurance market. This paper reviews the development of the market, focusing in particular on community rating. The breakdown of community rating in a market with multiple insurers with differing risk profiles is discussed. Applying this to the Irish market, it can be seen that the Irish Supreme Court judgment has significant implications for the application of community rating. Specifically, while community rating operates within plans, it no longer operates across the market, leading to high-risk lives paying more, on average, than low-risk lives. It has also led to greater opportunities for insurers to engage in market segmentation. This may have relevance for the design and operation of other community rated markets.

  6. THE IMPACT OF MASS SEGREGATION AND STAR FORMATION ON THE RATES OF GRAVITATIONAL-WAVE SOURCES FROM EXTREME MASS RATIO INSPIRALS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aharon, Danor; Perets, Hagai B. [Physics Department, Technion—Israel Institute of Technology, Haifa 3200003 (Israel)

    2016-10-10

    Compact stellar objects inspiraling into massive black holes (MBHs) in galactic nuclei are some of the most promising gravitational-wave (GWs) sources for next-generation GW detectors. The rates of such extreme mass ratio inspirals (EMRIs) depend on the dynamics and distribution of compact objects (COs) around the MBH. Here, we study the impact of mass-segregation processes on EMRI rates. In particular, we provide the expected mass function (MF) of EMRIs, given an initial MF of stellar black holes (SBHs), and relate it to the mass-dependent detection rate of EMRIs. We then consider the role of star formation (SF) on the distribution of COs and its implication on EMRI rates. We find that the existence of a wide spectrum of SBH masses leads to the overall increase of EMRI rates and to high rates of the EMRIs from the most massive SBHs. However, it also leads to a relative quenching of EMRI rates from lower-mass SBHs, and together produces a steep dependence of the EMRI MF on the highest-mass SBHs. SF history plays a relatively small role in determining the EMRI rates of SBHs, since most of them migrate close to the MBH through mass segregation rather than forming in situ. However, the EMRI rate of neutron stars (NSs) can be significantly increased when they form in situ close to the MBH, as they can inspiral before relaxation processes significantly segregate them outward. A reverse but weaker effect of decreasing the EMRI rates from NSs and white dwarfs occurs when SF proceeds far from the MBH.

  7. PERFORMANCE EVALUATION AND RISK AVERSION RATE FOR SEVERAL STOCK INDICES IN INDONESIA STOCK EXCHANGE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robiyanto Robiyanto

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available There are numerous stock indices in Indonesia Stock Exchange. Several of them are LQ-45, MBX, DBX, JII, SRI-KEHATI, PEFINDO-25, BISNIS-27, IDX-30 and KOMPAS-100. Unfortunately there are limi­ted researches which have been done to measure those indices performance specifically. The same condition also occurs on risk aversion level usage in Indonesia Stock Exchange, only few numbers of researches use this me­a­surement in the portfolio valuation. Based on that, this research measured the performance and risk aversion rate of those indices in Indonesia Stock Exchange. The results of this study were SRI-KEHATI becomes the best performer with the highest risk aversion rate, while Jakarta Islamic Index (JII produces the lowest positive per­formance with the lowest risk aversion rate. This finding shows that sharia stocks’ characters (i.e. usury free could give relieveness and convenience regardless its per­formance.

  8. Association between Carotid Intima Media Thickness and Heart Rate Variability in Adults at Increased Cardiovascular Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ovidiu C. Baltatu

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Background: Atherosclerotic carotid intima-media thickness (IMT may be associated with alterations in the sensitivity of carotid baroreceptors. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between carotid IMT and the autonomic modulation of heart rate variability (HRV.Methods: A total of 101 subjects were enrolled in this prospective observational study. The carotid IMT was determined by duplex ultrasonography. The cardiac autonomic function was determined through HRV measures during the Deep Breathing Test. Linear regression models, adjusted for demographics, comorbidities, body mass index, waist-hip-ratio, and left ventricular ejection fraction were used to evaluate the association between HRV parameters and carotid IMT.Results: Participants had a mean age of 60.4 ± 13.4 years and an estimated 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD risk score (using the Pooled Cohort Equations of 16.4 ± 17. The mean carotid media thickness was highest (0.90 ± 0.19 mm in the first quartile of the standard deviation of all RR intervals (SDNN (19.7 ± 5.1 ms and progressively declined in each subsequent quartile to 0.82 ± 0.21 mm, 0.81 ± 0.16 mm, and 0.68 ± 0.19 in quartiles 2 (36.5 ± 5.9 ms, 3 (57.7 ± 6.2 ms and 4 (100.9 ± 22.2 ms, respectively. In multivariable adjusted models, there was a statistical significant association between SDNN and carotid IMT (OR −0.002; 95%CI −0.003 to −0.001, p = 0.005. The same significant association was found between carotid IMT and other measures of HRV, including coefficient of variation of RR intervals (CV and dispersion of points along the line of identity (SD2.Conclusions: In a cohort of individuals at increased cardiovascular risk, carotid IMT as a marker of subclinical atherosclerosis was associated with alterations of HRV indicating an impaired cardiac autonomic control, independently of other cardiovascular risk factors.

  9. Physiologically-based, predictive analytics using the heart-rate-to-Systolic-Ratio significantly improves the timeliness and accuracy of sepsis prediction compared to SIRS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danner, Omar K; Hendren, Sandra; Santiago, Ethel; Nye, Brittany; Abraham, Prasad

    2017-04-01

    Enhancing the efficiency of diagnosis and treatment of severe sepsis by using physiologically-based, predictive analytical strategies has not been fully explored. We hypothesize assessment of heart-rate-to-systolic-ratio significantly increases the timeliness and accuracy of sepsis prediction after emergency department (ED) presentation. We evaluated the records of 53,313 ED patients from a large, urban teaching hospital between January and June 2015. The HR-to-systolic ratio was compared to SIRS criteria for sepsis prediction. There were 884 patients with discharge diagnoses of sepsis, severe sepsis, and/or septic shock. Variations in three presenting variables, heart rate, systolic BP and temperature were determined to be primary early predictors of sepsis with a 74% (654/884) accuracy compared to 34% (304/884) using SIRS criteria (p < 0.0001)in confirmed septic patients. Physiologically-based predictive analytics improved the accuracy and expediency of sepsis identification via detection of variations in HR-to-systolic ratio. This approach may lead to earlier sepsis workup and life-saving interventions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Association Between Contrast Media Volume-Glomerular Filtration Rate Ratio and Contrast-Induced Acute Kidney Injury After Primary Percutaneous Coronary Intervention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Celik, Omer; Ozturk, Derya; Akin, Fatih; Ayca, Burak; Yalcın, Ahmet Arif; Erturk, Mehmet; Bıyık, Ismail; Ayaz, Ahmet; Akturk, Ibrahim Faruk; Enhos, Asım; Aslan, Serkan

    2015-07-01

    We hypothesized that contrast media volume-estimated glomerular filtration rate (CV-e-GFR) ratio may be a predictor of contrast media-induced acute kidney injury (CI-AKI). We investigated the associations between CV-e-GFR ratio and CI-AKI in 597 patients undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention (pPCI). An absolute ≥0.3 mg/dL increase in serum creatinine compared with baseline levels within 48 hours after the procedure was considered as CI-AKI; 78 (13.1%) of the 597 patients experienced CI-AKI. The amount of contrast during procedure was higher in the CI-AKI group than in those without CI-AKI (153 vs 135 mL, P = .003). The CV-e-GFR ratio was significantly higher in patients with CI-AKI than without (2.3 vs 1.5, P 2 (P < .001, OR = 5.917). In conclusion, CV-e-GFR ratio is significantly associated with CI-AKI after pPCI. © The Author(s) 2014.

  11. 76 FR 79379 - Risk-Based Capital Guidelines: Market Risk; Alternatives to Credit Ratings for Debt and...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-12-21

    ..., China, France, Germany, Hong Kong SAR, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Korea, Luxembourg, Mexico, the..., the legislative history of section 939A focuses on the conflicts of interest of credit rating agencies... illustrates how CDS spreads and CRCs could be used together to assign specific risk-weighting factors. In...

  12. Intertemporal Risk-Return Trade-off in Foreign Exchange Rates

    OpenAIRE

    Christiansen, Charlotte

    2010-01-01

    We investigate the intertemporal risk-return trade-off of foreign ex-change (FX) rates for ten currencies quoted against the USD. For each currency,we use three risk measures simultaneously that pertain to that currency; its re-alized volatility, its realized skewness, and its value-at-risk. We apply monthlyFX excess returns and monthly FX risk measures calculated from daily ob-servations. We find that there is a positive and signi…cant contemporaneousrisk-return trade-off for most currencies...

  13. Prehospital shock index and pulse pressure/heart rate ratio to predict massive transfusion after severe trauma: Retrospective analysis of a large regional trauma database.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pottecher, Julien; Ageron, François-Xavier; Fauché, Clémence; Chemla, Denis; Noll, Eric; Duranteau, Jacques; Chapiteau, Laurent; Payen, Jean-François; Bouzat, Pierre

    2016-10-01

    Early and accurate detection of severe hemorrhage is critical for a timely trigger of massive transfusion (MT). Hemodynamic indices combining heart rate (HR) and either systolic (shock index [SI]) or pulse pressure (PP) (PP/HR ratio) have been shown to track blood loss during hemorrhage. The present study assessed the accuracy of prehospital SI and PP/HR ratio to predict subsequent MT, using the gray-zone approach. This was a retrospective analysis (January 1, 2009, to December 31, 2011) of a prospectively developed trauma registry (TRENAU), in which the triage scheme combines patient severity and hospital facilities. Thresholds for MT were defined as either classic (≥10 red blood cell units within the first 24 hours [MT1]) or critical (≥3 red blood cells within the first hour [MT2]). The receiver operating characteristic curves and gray zones were defined for SI and PP/HR ratio to predict MT1 and MT2 and faced with initial triage scheme. The TRENAU registry included 3,689 trauma patients, of which 2,557 had complete chart recovery and 176 (6.9%) required MT. In the whole population, PP/HR ratio and SI moderately and similarly predicted MT1 (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.77 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 0.70-0.84] and 0.80 [95% CI, 0.74-0.87], respectively, p = 0.064) and MT2 (0.71 [95% CI, 0.67-0.76] and 0.72 [95% CI, 0.68-0.77], respectively, p = 0.48). The proportions of patients in the gray zone for PP/HR ratio and SI were 61% versus 40%, respectively, to predict MT1 (p ratio outperformed SI to predict MT2 (0.72 [95% CI, 0.59-0.84] vs. 0.54 [95% CI, 0.33-0.74]; p ratio were moderately accurate in predicting MT. In the seemingly least severe patients, an improvement of prehospital undertriage for MT may be gained by using the PP/HR ratio. Epidemiolgic study, level III.

  14. Global financial crisis, banking crisis and first country risk in the viewpoint of domestic risk rating agencies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dr.Sc. Ingrid Shuli

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available In a period of dire financial crisis, with which all countries seem to cope, it seemed interesting to analyse the assessment of the risk for our country, viewed from the vantage point of our domestic rating agencies, but also compared to assessments made to our country by international rating agencies, such as Moody’s rating agency, Standard & Poor rating agency, Fitch ratings agency etc. The objective of this study is to recognize indicators and factors affecting the risk assessment and rating of a country, and evaluate whether there has been an impact of the financial crisis faced by other countries in the rating given to Albanian by domestic and foreign agencies. We stopped at the history of earlier financial crisis development to understand bewtter what is happening in this financial crisis. We shall develop upon a wide existing literature, and a range of credible resources such as the IMF, the World Bank, the International Institute of Finance, Economic Intelligence Unit, and local official data sources, eg. The Bank of Albania and INSTAT.

  15. Incident rate and risk factors for tuberculosis among patients with type 2 diabetes: retrospective cohort study in Shanghai, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiu, Hanbo; Shi, Yan; Li, Yanyun; Shen, Xin; Li, Rui; Yang, Qundi; Pan, Qichao; Yan, Fei

    2017-07-01

    To examine the incident rate of tuberculosis (TB) and its associates among adults with type 2 diabetes in Shanghai, China. We conducted a retrospective cohort study among 170 399 patients with type 2 diabetes aged ≥18 years who were registered in Shanghai community-based diabetes management system between 2004 and 2009. Their TB status was tracked until 31 December 2014. Cox regression was performed to identify the risk factors for TB. We documented 785 new TB cases during 654 977 person-years of follow-up. The incident rate of TB was 224.20 (206.69, 243.16) per 100 000 person-years among men and 51.34 (44.75, 58.92) per 100 000 person-years among women. A 1-unit increase of BMI was associated with a risk reduction in 16% (P < 0.01) for men and a 14% (P < 0.01) reduction for women. TB cases were more likely to be insulin-dependent [men: hazard ratio = 2.13 (1.29, 3.53); women: 3.28 (1.28, 8.39)] and had a poor glucose level initially [men: 1.21 (1.15, 1.27); women: 1.27 (1.18, 1.37)]. The risk factor for TB specific to men was a young age at diagnosis of diabetes, and the protective factor specific to women was actively engaging in physical activity. TB incident rate among patients with type 2 diabetes was substantially higher among men than among women. The risk of TB was reversely associated with initial BMI. The severity of poor glucose control among patients with diabetes was also linearly associated with the risk of TB. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  16. Evaluating the Impact of Prescription Fill Rates on Risk Stratification Model Performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Hsien-Yen; Richards, Thomas M; Shermock, Kenneth M; Elder Dalpoas, Stacy; J Kan, Hong; Alexander, G Caleb; Weiner, Jonathan P; Kharrazi, Hadi

    2017-12-01

    Risk adjustment models are traditionally derived from administrative claims. Prescription fill rates-extracted by comparing electronic health record prescriptions and pharmacy claims fills-represent a novel measure of medication adherence and may improve the performance of risk adjustment models. We evaluated the impact of prescription fill rates on claims-based risk adjustment models in predicting both concurrent and prospective costs and utilization. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 43,097 primary care patients from HealthPartners network between 2011 and 2012. Diagnosis and/or pharmacy claims of 2011 were used to build 3 base models using the Johns Hopkins ACG system, in addition to demographics. Model performances were compared before and after adding 3 types of prescription fill rates: primary 0-7 days, primary 0-30 days, and overall. Overall fill rates utilized all ordered prescriptions from electronic health record while primary fill rates excluded refill orders. The overall, primary 0-7, and 0-30 days fill rates were 72.30%, 59.82%, and 67.33%. The fill rates were similar between sexes but varied across different medication classifications, whereas the youngest had the highest rate. Adding fill rates modestly improved the performance of all models in explaining medical costs (improving concurrent R by 1.15% to 2.07%), followed by total costs (0.58% to 1.43%), and pharmacy costs (0.07% to 0.65%). The impact was greater for concurrent costs compared with prospective costs. Base models without diagnosis information showed the highest improvement using prescription fill rates. Prescription fill rates can modestly enhance claims-based risk prediction models; however, population-level improvements in predicting utilization are limited.

  17. Effects of understory vegetation and litter on plant nitrogen (N, phosphorus (P, N:P ratio and their relationships with growth rate of indigenous seedlings in subtropical plantations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jun Wang

    Full Text Available Establishing seedlings in subtropical plantations is very important for forest health, succession and management. Information on seedling nutrient concentrations is essential for both the selection of suitable indigenous tree species to accelerate succession of the established plantation and sustainable forest management. In this study, we investigated the concentrations of nitrogen ([N], phosphorus ([P], and N:P ratio in leaves, stems and roots of seedlings of three indigenous tree species (Castanopsis chinensis, Michelia chapensis and Psychotria rubra transplanted with removing or retaining understory vegetation and litter at two typical subtropical forest plantations (Eucalyptus plantation and native species plantation. We also measured the relative growth rate (RGR of seedling height, and developed the relationships between RGR and leaf [N], [P] and N:P ratio. Results showed that treatments of understory vegetation and associated litter (i.e. removal or retained generally had no significant effects on leaf [N], [P], N:P ratio and RGR of the transplanted tree seedlings for the experimental period. But among different species, there were significant differences in nutrient concentrations. M. chapensis and P. rubra had higher [N] and [P] compared to C. chinensis. [N] and [P] also varied among different plant tissues with much higher values in leaves than in roots for all indigenous species. RGR of indigenous tree seedlings was mostly positively correlated with leaf [N] and [P], but negatively correlated with leaf N:P ratio. Considering the low [P] and high N:P ratio observed in the introduced indigenous tree seedlings, we propose that the current experimental plantations might be P limited for plant growth.

  18. Community-based stillbirth rates and risk factors in rural Sarlahi, Nepal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Anne C; Mullany, Luke C; Tielsch, James M; Katz, Joanne; Khatry, Subarna K; Leclerq, Steven C; Adhikari, Ramesh K; Darmstadt, Gary L

    2011-06-01

    To assess stillbirth rates and antepartum risk factors in rural Nepal. Data were collected prospectively during a cluster-randomized, community-based trial in Sarlahi, Nepal, from 2002 to 2006. Multivariate regression modeling was performed to calculate adjusted relative risk estimates. Among 24531 births, the stillbirth rate was 35.4 per 1000 births (term stillbirth rate 21.2 per 1000 births). Most births occurred at home without a skilled birth attendant. The majority (69%) of intrapartum maternal deaths resulted in stillbirth. The adjusted RR (aRR) of stillbirth was 2.74 among nulliparas and 1.47 among mothers with history of a child death. Mothers above the age of 30 years carried a 1.59-fold higher risk for stillbirth than mothers who were 20-24 years old. The stillbirth risk was lower among households where the father had any formal education (aRR 0.70). Land ownership (aRR 0.85) and Pahadi ethnicity (aRR 0.67; reference: Madhesi ethnicity) were associated with significantly lower risks of stillbirth. Stillbirth rates were high in rural Nepal, with the majority of stillbirths occurring at full-term gestation. Nulliparity, history of prior child loss, maternal age above 30 years, Madhesi ethnicity, and socioeconomic disadvantage were significant risk factors for stillbirth. Clinicaltrials.govNCT00 109616. Copyright © 2011 International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Is High Serum LDL/HDL Cholesterol Ratio an Emerging Risk Factor for Sudden Cardiac Death? Findings from the KIHD Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kunutsor, Setor K; Zaccardi, Francesco; Karppi, Jouni; Kurl, Sudhir; Laukkanen, Jari A

    2017-06-01

    Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-c) and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-c), which are components of total cholesterol, have each been suggested to be linked to the risk of sudden cardiac death (SCD). However, the relationship between LDL-c/HDL-c ratio and the risk of SCD has not been previously investigated. We aimed to assess the associations of LDL-c, HDL-c, and the ratio of LDL-c/HDL-c with the risk of SCD. Serum lipoprotein concentrations were assessed at baseline in the Finnish Kuopio Ischemic Heart Disease prospective cohort study of 2,616 men aged 42-61 years at recruitment. Hazard ratios (HRs) (95% confidence intervals [CI]) were assessed. During a median follow-up of 23.0 years, a total of 228 SCDs occurred. There was no significant evidence of an association of LDL-c or HDL-c with the risk of SCD. In analyses adjusted for age, examination year, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, smoking, alcohol consumption, physical activity, years of education, diabetes, previous myocardial infarction, family history of coronary heart disease, and serum high sensitivity C-reactive protein, there was approximately a two-fold increase in the risk of SCD (HR 1.94, 95% CI 1.21-3.11; p=0.006), comparing the top (>4.22) versus bottom (≤2.30) quintile of serum LDL-c/HDL-c ratio. In this middle-aged male population, LDL-c or HDL-c was not associated with the risk of SCD. However, a high serum LDL-c/HDL-c ratio was found to be independently associated with an increased risk of SCD. Further research is warranted to understand the mechanistic pathways underlying this association.

  20. Modelling Chemical Kinetics of Soybean Oil Transesterification Process for Biodiesel Production: An Analysis of Molar Ratio between Alcohol and Soybean Oil Temperature Changes on the Process Conversion Rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maicon Tait

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available A mathematical model describing chemical kinetics of transesterification of soybean oil for biodiesel production has been developed. The model is based on the reverse mechanism of transesterification reactions and describes dynamics concentration changes of triglycerides, diglycerides, monoglycerides, biodiesel, and glycerol production. Reaction rate constants were written in the Arrhenius form. An analysis of key process variables such as temperature and molar ratio soybean oil- alcohol using response surface analysis was performed to achieve the maximum soybean conversion rate to biodiesel. The predictive power of the developed model was checked for the very wide range of operational conditions and parameters values by fitting different experimental results for homogeneous catalytic and non-catalytic processes published in the literature. A very good correlation between model simulations and experimental data was observed.

  1. A statistical modeling approach to build expert credit risk rating systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Waagepetersen, Rasmus

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents an efficient method for extracting expert knowledge when building a credit risk rating system. Experts are asked to rate a sample of counterparty cases according to creditworthiness. Next, a statistical model is used to capture the relation between the characteristics...... of a counterparty and the expert rating. For any counterparty the model can identify the rating, which would be agreed upon by the majority of experts. Furthermore, the model can quantify the concurrence among experts. The approach is illustrated by a case study regarding the construction of an application score...

  2. Assessing the influence of risk factors on rates and dynamics of peripheral vein phlebitis: an observational cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mestre Roca, Gabriel; Berbel Bertolo, Cristina; Tortajada Lopez, Purificación; Gallemi Samaranch, Gema; Aguilar Ramirez, Mari Carmen; Caylà Buqueras, Joan; Rodríguez-Baño, Jesús; Martinez, José Antonio

    2012-07-21

    To assess the influence of risk factors on the rates and kinetics of peripheral vein phlebitis (PVP) development and its theoretical influence in absolute PVP reduction after catheter replacement. All peripheral short intravenous catheters inserted during one month were included (1201 catheters and 967 patients). PVP risk factors were assessed by a Cox proportional hazard model. Cumulative probability, conditional failure of PVP and theoretical estimation of the benefit from replacement at different intervals were performed. Female gender, catheter insertion at the emergency or medical-surgical wards, forearm site, amoxicillin-clavulamate or aminoglycosides were independent predictors of PVP with hazard ratios (95 confidence interval) of 1.46 (1.09-2.15), 1.94 (1.01-3.73), 2.51 (1.29-4.88), 1.93 (1.20-3.01), 2.15 (1.45-3.20) and 2.10 (1.01-4.63), respectively. Maximum phlebitis incidence was reached sooner in patients with ≥2 risk factors (days 3-4) than in those with phlebitis/one catheter-day for devices with ≤1 risk factors to 0.26 for those with ≥3. The greatest benefit of routine catheter exchange was obtained by replacement every 60h. However, this benefit differed according to the number of risk factors: 24.8% reduction with ≥3, 13.1% with 2, and 9.2% with ≤1. PVP dynamics is highly influenced by identifiable risk factors which may be used to refine the strategy of catheter management. Routine replacement every 72h seems to be strictly necessary only in high-risk catheters. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

  3. Risk Management of Interest Rate Derivative Portfolios: A Stochastic Control Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Konstantinos Kiriakopoulos

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we formulate the Risk Management Control problem in the interest rate area as a constrained stochastic portfolio optimization problem. The utility that we use can be any continuous function and based on the viscosity theory, the unique solution of the problem is guaranteed. The numerical approximation scheme is presented and applied using a single factor interest rate model. It is shown how the whole methodology works in practice, with the implementation of the algorithm for a specific interest rate portfolio. The recent financial crisis showed that risk management of derivatives portfolios especially in the interest rate market is crucial for the stability of the financial system. Modern Value at Risk (VAR and Conditional Value at Risk (CVAR techniques, although very useful and easy to understand, fail to grasp the need for on-line controlling and monitoring of derivatives portfolio. The portfolios should be designed in a way that risk and return be quantified and controlled in every possible state of the world. We hope that this methodology contributes towards this direction.

  4. Thermophilic co-digestion feasibility of distillers grains and swine manure: effect of C/N ratio and organic loading rate during high solid anaerobic digestion (HSAD).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sensai, P; Thangamani, A; Visvanathan, C

    2014-01-01

    Anaerobic co-digestion of high solids containing distillers grains and swine manure (total solids, 27 +/- 2% and 18 +/- 2%, respectively) was evaluated in this study to assess the effect of C/N ratio and organic loading rate (OLR). Feed mixture was balanced to achieve a C/N ratio of 30/1 by mixing distillers grains and swine manure. Pilot-scale co-digestion of distillers grains and swine manure was carried out under thermophilic conditions in the continuous mode for seven different OLRs from R1 to R7 (3.5, 5, 6, 8, 10, 12 and 14 kg VS/m3 day) under high solid anaerobic digestion. The methane yield and volatile solid (VS) removal were consistent; ranging from 0.33 to 0.34 m3CH4/kg VS day and 50-53%, respectively, until OLR 8 kg VS/m3 day. After which methane yield and VS removal significantly decreased to 0.26 m3 CH4/kg VS day and 42%, respectively, when OLR was increased to 14 kg VS/m3 day. However, during operation, at OLR of 10 kg VS/m3 day, the methane yield and VS removal increased after the 19th day to 0.33 m3 CH4/kg VS day and 46%, respectively, indicating that a longer acclimatization period is required by methanogens at a higher loading rate.

  5. An improved evaluation of the seismic/geodetic deformation-rate ratio for the Zagros Fold-and-Thrust collisional belt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palano, Mimmo; Imprescia, Paola; Agnon, Amotz; Gresta, Stefano

    2018-04-01

    We present an improved picture of the ongoing crustal deformation field for the Zagros Fold-and-Thrust Belt continental collision zone by using an extensive combination of both novel and published GPS observations. The main results define the significant amount of oblique Arabia-Eurasia convergence currently being absorbed within the Zagros: right-lateral shear along the NW trending Main Recent fault in NW Zagros and accommodated between fold-and-thrust structures and NS right-lateral strike-slip faults on Southern Zagros. In addition, taking into account the 1909-2016 instrumental seismic catalogue, we provide a statistical evaluation of the seismic/geodetic deformation-rate ratio for the area. On Northern Zagros and on the Turkish-Iranian Plateau, a moderate to large fraction (˜49 and >60 per cent, respectively) of the crustal deformation occurs seismically. On the Sanandaj-Sirjan zone, the seismic/geodetic deformation-rate ratio suggests that a small to moderate fraction (<40 per cent) of crustal deformation occurs seismically; locally, the occurrence of large historic earthquakes (M ≥ 6) coupled with the high geodetic deformation, could indicate overdue M ≥ 6 earthquakes. On Southern Zagros, aseismic strain dominates crustal deformation (the ratio ranges in the 15-33 per cent interval). Such aseismic deformation is probably related to the presence of the weak evaporitic Hormuz Formation which allows the occurrence of large aseismic motion on both subhorizontal faults and surfaces of décollement. These results, framed into the seismotectonic framework of the investigated region, confirm that the fold-and-thrust-dominated deformation is driven by buoyancy forces; by contrast, the shear-dominated deformation is primary driven by plate stresses.

  6. Flood Risk, Flood Mitigation, and Location Choice: Evaluating the National Flood Insurance Program's Community Rating System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Qin; Davlasheridze, Meri

    2016-06-01

    Climate change is expected to worsen the negative effects of natural disasters like floods. The negative impacts, however, can be mitigated by individuals' adjustments through migration and relocation behaviors. Previous literature has identified flood risk as one significant driver in relocation decisions, but no prior study examines the effect of the National Flood Insurance Program's voluntary program-the Community Rating System (CRS)-on residential location choice. This article fills this gap and tests the hypothesis that flood risk and the CRS-creditable flood control activities affect residential location choices. We employ a two-stage sorting model to empirically estimate the effects. In the first stage, individuals' risk perception and preference heterogeneity for the CRS activities are considered, while mean effects of flood risk and the CRS activities are estimated in the second stage. We then estimate heterogeneous marginal willingness to pay (WTP) for the CRS activities by category. Results show that age, ethnicity and race, educational attainment, and prior exposure to risk explain risk perception. We find significant values for the CRS-creditable mitigation activities, which provides empirical evidence for the benefits associated with the program. The marginal WTP for an additional credit point earned for public information activities, including hazard disclosure, is found to be the highest. Results also suggest that water amenities dominate flood risk. Thus, high amenity values may increase exposure to flood risk, and flood mitigation projects should be strategized in coastal regions accordingly. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  7. Increased crown-to-implant ratio may not be a risk factor for dental implant failure under appropriate plaque control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okada, Shinsuke; Koretake, Katsunori; Miyamoto, Yasunari; Oue, Hiroshi; Akagawa, Yasumasa

    2013-01-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate whether increased crown-to-implant (C/I) ratio influences implant stability or not under proper healthy control of peri-implant mucosa. The hypothesis of this study is that implant stability can be maintained despite High C/I, under appropriate plaque control. Five male Beagle-Labrador hybrid dogs (2 years old) were used. Their bilateral mandibular premolar extraction was performed. After allowing 12 weeks for bone healing, 3 types of vertical marginal bone loss were simultaneously prepared randomly. Then, 30 titanium implants were placed in the edentulous areas and defined as High C/I, Mid C/I and Low C/I groups. This time point was designated as the baseline (0 Week). Twelve weeks after implant placement, metal superstructures were cemented to the implants and an occlusal plate was set at the opposite side. At the same time, Calcein green was injected for remodeling evaluation. Implants were loaded by feeding the dogs a hard pellet diet. Tooth brushing was performed 5 days per week during the study to maintain healthy peri-implant mucosa. Twenty-four weeks following implant placement, the interface structure was evaluated clinically, radiologically, and histologically. Implant stability quotient (ISQ) increased with time in all 3 groups, without any significant correlation with the C/I value (p >0.05). Moreover, mean marginal bone loss adjacent around implants in all 3 groups ranged between 0.11 and 0.19 mm, with no significant difference (p >0.05). Many fluorescence-labeled bones are shown in the High C/I group. It is considered that high remodeling activity prevent marginal bone loss in the High C/I group and this may provide favorable implant stability under proper plaque control. These findings suggest that increased C/I may not be a risk factor for implant failure if the peri-implant mucosa is kept healthy, as was the case in this animal model.

  8. Increased crown-to-implant ratio may not be a risk factor for dental implant failure under appropriate plaque control.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shinsuke Okada

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to evaluate whether increased crown-to-implant (C/I ratio influences implant stability or not under proper healthy control of peri-implant mucosa. The hypothesis of this study is that implant stability can be maintained despite High C/I, under appropriate plaque control. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Five male Beagle-Labrador hybrid dogs (2 years old were used. Their bilateral mandibular premolar extraction was performed. After allowing 12 weeks for bone healing, 3 types of vertical marginal bone loss were simultaneously prepared randomly. Then, 30 titanium implants were placed in the edentulous areas and defined as High C/I, Mid C/I and Low C/I groups. This time point was designated as the baseline (0 Week. Twelve weeks after implant placement, metal superstructures were cemented to the implants and an occlusal plate was set at the opposite side. At the same time, Calcein green was injected for remodeling evaluation. Implants were loaded by feeding the dogs a hard pellet diet. Tooth brushing was performed 5 days per week during the study to maintain healthy peri-implant mucosa. Twenty-four weeks following implant placement, the interface structure was evaluated clinically, radiologically, and histologically. RESULT: Implant stability quotient (ISQ increased with time in all 3 groups, without any significant correlation with the C/I value (p >0.05. Moreover, mean marginal bone loss adjacent around implants in all 3 groups ranged between 0.11 and 0.19 mm, with no significant difference (p >0.05. Many fluorescence-labeled bones are shown in the High C/I group. It is considered that high remodeling activity prevent marginal bone loss in the High C/I group and this may provide favorable implant stability under proper plaque control. CONCLUSION: These findings suggest that increased C/I may not be a risk factor for implant failure if the peri-implant mucosa is kept healthy, as was the case in this animal model.

  9. Fracture risk assessed by Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) compared with fracture risk derived from population fracture rates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rubin, Katrine Hass; Abrahamsen, Bo; Hermann, Anne Pernille

    2011-01-01

    Purpose: To evaluate the performance of the Swedish version of Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX)) without bone mass density (BMD) in a Danish population to examine the possibility of applying this version to Danish women. METHODS: From the Danish National Register of social security numbers, we...

  10. Binary Tree Pricing to Convertible Bonds with Credit Risk under Stochastic Interest Rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianbo Huang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The convertible bonds usually have multiple additional provisions that make their pricing problem more difficult than straight bonds and options. This paper uses the binary tree method to model the finance market. As the underlying stock prices and the interest rates are important to the convertible bonds, we describe their dynamic processes by different binary tree. Moreover, we consider the influence of the credit risks on the convertible bonds that is described by the default rate and the recovery rate; then the two-factor binary tree model involving the credit risk is established. On the basis of the theoretical analysis, we make numerical simulation and get the pricing results when the stock prices are CRR model and the interest rates follow the constant volatility and the time-varying volatility, respectively. This model can be extended to other financial derivative instruments.

  11. Benchmarking Discount Rate in Natural Resource Damage Assessment with Risk Aversion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Desheng; Chen, Shuzhen

    2017-08-01

    Benchmarking a credible discount rate is of crucial importance in natural resource damage assessment (NRDA) and restoration evaluation. This article integrates a holistic framework of NRDA with prevailing low discount rate theory, and proposes a discount rate benchmarking decision support system based on service-specific risk aversion. The proposed approach has the flexibility of choosing appropriate discount rates for gauging long-term services, as opposed to decisions based simply on duration. It improves injury identification in NRDA since potential damages and side-effects to ecosystem services are revealed within the service-specific framework. A real embankment case study demonstrates valid implementation of the method. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  12. Risk Factors Influencing Conception Rate in Holstein Heifers before Artificial Insemination or Embryo Transfer

    OpenAIRE

    M. Yusuf; T. Nakao; S. T. Long; S. Fujita

    2016-01-01

    The objective of this study was to show the risk factors affecting the conception rate in Holstein heifers after synchronization of estrus. A total of 275 Holstein heifers housed in a free barn were used for the experiment. The herd was visited regularly at four week intervals for synchronization of estrus using Heatsynch and CIDR-Heatsynch protocols. A group of four to 14 animals, depending on the availability, were referred to the experiment at each visit. Estrus induction rates in the two ...

  13. Risk analysis of radioactive waste repository based on the time dependent hazard rate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chang, S.H.; Cho, W.J.

    1984-01-01

    For the probabilistic risk analysis of the radioactive high level waste repository, the simplified method based on the time dependent hazard rate is proposed. The obtained results are compared with those from the time independent hazard rate. The estimation of the failure probability of the waste repository through this method gives more conservative results, especially when the half-life of nuclide is larger and retardation factors of nuclide is smaller. (Auth.)

  14. A NEW LOOK AT THE TRADE VOLUME EFFECTS OF REAL EXCHANGE RATE RISK

    OpenAIRE

    Wang, Kai-Li; Barrett, Christopher B.

    2002-01-01

    This paper takes a new empirical look at the longstanding question of the effect of exchange rate volatility on international trade flows by studying the case of Taiwan's exports to the United States from 1989-1998. In particular, we employ sectoral level, monthly data and a multivariate GARCH-M estimator with corrections for leptokurtic errors that is consistent with the core hypothesis that traders' forward contracting behavior might be affected by exchange rate risk. We find that real exch...

  15. Waist-to-height ratio, waist circumference and BMI as indicators of percentage fat mass and cardiometabolic risk factors in children aged 3-7 years

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sijtsma, Anna; Bocca, Gianni; L'abée, Carianne; Liem, Eryn T; Sauer, Pieter J J; Corpeleijn, Eva

    Objective: To assess whether waist-to-height-ratio (WHtR) is a better estimate of body fat percentage (BF %) and a better indicator of cardiometabolic risk factors than BMI or waist circumference (WC) in young children. Methods: WHtR, WC and BMI were measured by trained staff according to

  16. Oxygen consumption rates in hovering hummingbirds reflect substrate-dependent differences in P/O ratios: carbohydrate as a 'premium fuel'.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welch, Kenneth C; Altshuler, Douglas L; Suarez, Raul K

    2007-06-01

    The stoichiometric relationship of ATP production to oxygen consumption, i.e. the P/O ratio, varies depending on the nature of the metabolic substrate used. The latest estimates reveal a P/O ratio approximately 15% higher when glucose is oxidized compared with fatty acid oxidation. Because the energy required to produce aerodynamic lift for hovering is independent of the metabolic fuel oxidized, we hypothesized that the rate of oxygen consumption, VO2, should decline as the respiratory quotient, RQ (VCO2/VO2), increases from 0.71 to 1.0 as hummingbirds transition from a fasted to a fed state. Here, we show that hovering VO2 values in rufous (Selasphorus rufus) and Anna's hummingbirds (Calypte anna) are significantly greater when fats are metabolized (RQ=0.71) than when carbohydrates are used (RQ=1.0). Because hummingbirds gained mass during our experiments, making mass a confounding variable, we estimated VO2 per unit mechanical power output. Expressed in this way, the difference in VO2 when hummingbirds display an RQ=0.71 (fasted) and an RQ=1.0 (fed) is between 16 and 18%, depending on whether zero or perfect elastic energy storage is assumed. These values closely match theoretical expectations, indicating that a combination of mechanical power estimates and ;indirect calorimetry', i.e. the measurement of rates of gas exchange, enables precise estimates of ATP turnover and metabolic flux rates in vivo. The requirement for less oxygen when oxidizing carbohydrate suggests that carbohydrate oxidation may facilitate hovering flight in hummingbirds at high altitude.

  17. Rate and Risk Factors for Periprosthetic Joint Infection Among 36,494 Primary Total Hip Arthroplasties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Triantafyllopoulos, Georgios K; Soranoglou, Vasileios G; Memtsoudis, Stavros G; Sculco, Thomas P; Poultsides, Lazaros A

    2018-04-01

    As periprosthetic joint infections (PJIs) can have tremendous health and socioeconomic implications, recognizing patients at risk before surgery is of great importance. Therefore, we sought to determine the rate of and risk factors for deep PJI in patients undergoing primary total hip arthroplasty (THA). Clinical characteristics of patients treated with primary THA between January 1999 and December 2013 were retrospectively reviewed. These included patient demographics, comorbidities (including the Charlson/Deyo comorbidity index), length of stay, primary diagnosis, total/allogeneic transfusion rate, and in-hospital complications, which were grouped into local and systemic (minor and major). We determined the overall deep PJI rate, as well as the rates for early-onset (occurring within 2 years after index surgery) and late-onset PJI (occurring more than 2 years after surgery). A Cox proportional hazards regression model was constructed to identify risk factors for developing deep PJI. Significance level was set at 0.05. A deep PJI developed in 154 of 36,494 primary THAs (0.4%) during the study period. Early onset PJI was found in 122 patients (0.3%), whereas late PJI occurred in 32 patients (0.1%). Obesity, coronary artery disease, and pulmonary hypertension were identified as independent risk factors for deep PJI after primary THA. The rate of deep PJIs of the hip is relatively low, with the majority occurring within 2 years after THA. If the optimization of modifiable risk factors before THA can reduce the rate of this complication remains unknown, but should be attempted as part of good practice. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. [Relationship between the triglyceride/high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol ratio, insulin resistance index and cardiometabolic risk factors in women with polycystic ovary syndrome].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roa Barrios, Marlene; Arata-Bellabarba, Gabriela; Valeri, Lenin; Velázquez-Maldonado, Elsy

    2009-02-01

    To evaluate the relationship between the triglyceride/high density lipoprotein cholesterol (TG/HDL-c) ratio, insulin resistance index and cardiometabolic risk factors in women with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS). The present crosssectional study analyzed 62 women with PCOS and 48 healthy women (control group) aged 17- 35 years old. Body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC) and blood pressure were registered. Plasma concentrations of glucose, insulin, triglycerides, total cholesterol and HDL-c were measured. TheTG/HDL-c ratio, homeostasis model assessment for insulin resistance (HOMA(IR)) and quantitative insulin sensitivity check index (QUICKI) were calculated. Women with PCOS showed significantly higher values of the TG/HDL-c ratio and HOMA(IR), and a significantly lower QUICKI value. These differences were related to BMI and WC, with the highest values being observed in obese patients. The 50th percentile for the TG/HDL-c ratio was 3.64; the TG/cHDL ratio was positively correlated with BMI, WC and HOMA(IR) (r=0.48, pglucose > 100 mg/dl (10% vs 3%; ptriglycerides>150 mg/dl (55% vs 20%; p80 cm (82.3% vs 43.8%; pindexes (HOMA(IR), QUICKI). The TG/HDL-c ratio could be considered as a useful and practical method to identify an increased risk of cardiovascular disease in patients with PCOS.

  19. Catchment-wide weathering and erosion rates of mafic, ultramafic, and granitic rock from cosmogenic meteoric 10Be/9Be ratios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dannhaus, N.; Wittmann, H.; Krám, P.; Christl, M.; von Blanckenburg, F.

    2018-02-01

    Quantifying rates of weathering and erosion of mafic rocks is essential for estimating changes to the oceans alkalinity budget that plays a significant role in regulating atmospheric CO2 levels. In this study, we present catchment-wide rates of weathering, erosion, and denudation measured with cosmogenic nuclides in mafic and ultramafic rock. We use the ratio of the meteoric cosmogenic nuclide 10Be, deposited from the atmosphere onto the weathering zone, to stable 9Be, a trace metal released by silicate weathering. We tested this approach in stream sediment and water from three upland forested catchments in the north-west Czech Republic. The catchments are underlain by felsic (granite), mafic (amphibolite) and ultramafic (serpentinite) lithologies. Due to acid rain deposition in the 20th century, the waters in the granite catchment exhibit acidic pH, whereas waters in the mafic catchments exhibit neutral to alkaline pH values due to their acid buffering capability. The atmospheric depositional 10Be flux is estimated to be balanced with the streams' dissolved and particulate meteoric 10Be export flux to within a factor of two. We suggest a correlation method to derive bedrock Be concentrations, required as an input parameter, which are highly heterogeneous in these small catchments. Derived Earth surface metrics comprise (1) Denudation rates calculated from the 10Be/9Be ratio of the "reactive" Be (meaning sorbed to mineral surfaces) range between 110 and 185 t km-2 y-1 (40 and 70 mm ky-1). These rates are similar to denudation rates we obtained from in situ-cosmogenic 10Be in quartz minerals present in the bedrock or in quartz veins in the felsic and the mafic catchment. (2) The degree of weathering, calculated from the fraction of 9Be released from primary minerals as a new proxy, is about 40-50% in the mafic catchments, and 10% in the granitic catchment. Lastly, (3) erosion rates were calculated from 10Be concentrations in river sediment and corrected for sorting

  20. How costly is it to ignore interest rate risk management in your 401(k) plan?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Bilsen, Servaas; Boelaars, I.; Bovenberg, Lans; Mehlkopf, Roel

    This paper explicitly derives and explores optimal interest rate risk management for lifecycle investors in DC pension plans, and compares our results to the portfolio mix chosen in practice by Target-Date Fund (TDF) managers. We show that investments in long-term bonds play an important role in the

  1. Mapping at-risk-of-poverty rates, household employment, and social spending

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vandenbroucke, F.; Diris, R.; Cantillon, B.; Vandenbroucke, F.

    2014-01-01

    As a first step stylized facts are presented concerning at-risk-of-poverty rates for the non-elderly population, household employment (a concept introduced in this chapter) and social spending in European welfare states. The chapter provides a first exploration of a central theme of the book, which

  2. The ruin probability of a discrete time risk model under constant interest rate with heavy tails

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tang, Q.

    2004-01-01

    This paper investigates the ultimate ruin probability of a discrete time risk model with a positive constant interest rate. Under the assumption that the gross loss of the company within one year is subexponentially distributed, a simple asymptotic relation for the ruin probability is derived and

  3. Hostility Ratings by Parents at Risk for Child Abuse: Impact of Chronic and Temporary Schema Activation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farc, Maria-Magdalena; Crouch, Julie L.; Skowronski, John J.; Milner, Joel S.

    2008-01-01

    Objective: Two studies examined whether accessibility of hostility-related schema influenced ratings of ambiguous child pictures. Based on the social information processing model of child physical abuse (CPA), it was expected that CPA risk status would serve as a proxy for chronic accessibility of hostile schema, while priming procedures were used…

  4. The association between social networks and self-rated risk of HIV ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study describes the social networks of secondary school students in Moshi Municipality, and their association with self-rated risk of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. A cross-sectional analytical study was conducted among 300 students aged 15–24 years in 5 secondary schools in Moshi, Tanzania.

  5. Genetic loci associated with heart rate variability and their effects on cardiac disease risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nolte, Ilja M; Munoz, M Loretto; Tragante, Vinicius; Amare, Azmeraw T; Jansen, Rick; Vaez, Ahmad; von der Heyde, Benedikt; Avery, Christy L; Bis, Joshua C; Dierckx, Bram; van Dongen, Jenny; Gogarten, Stephanie M; Goyette, Philippe; Hernesniemi, Jussi; Huikari, Ville; Hwang, Shih-Jen; Jaju, Deepali; Kerr, Kathleen F; Kluttig, Alexander; Krijthe, Bouwe P; Kumar, Jitender; van der Laan, Sander W; Lyytikäinen, Leo-Pekka; Maihofer, Adam X; Minassian, Arpi; van der Most, Peter J; Müller-Nurasyid, Martina; Nivard, Michel; Salvi, Erika; Stewart, James D; Thayer, Julian F; Verweij, Niek; Wong, Andrew; Zabaneh, Delilah; Zafarmand, Mohammad H; Abdellaoui, Abdel; Albarwani, Sulayma; Albert, Christine; Alonso, Alvaro; Ashar, Foram; Auvinen, Juha; Axelsson, Tomas; Baker, Dewleen G; de Bakker, Paul I W; Barcella, Matteo; Bayoumi, Riad; Bieringa, Rob J; Boomsma, Dorret; Boucher, Gabrielle; Britton, Annie R; Christophersen, Ingrid; Dietrich, Andrea; Ehret, George B; Ellinor, Patrick T; Eskola, Markku; Felix, Janine F; Floras, John S; Franco, Oscar H; Friberg, Peter; Gademan, Maaike G J; Geyer, Mark A; Giedraitis, Vilmantas; Hartman, Catharina A; Hemerich, Daiane; Hofman, Albert; Hottenga, Jouke-Jan; Huikuri, Heikki; Hutri-Kähönen, Nina; Jouven, Xavier; Junttila, Juhani; Juonala, Markus; Kiviniemi, Antti M; Kors, Jan A.; Kumari, Meena; Kuznetsova, Tatiana; Laurie, Cathy C; Lefrandt, Joop D.; Li, Yong; Li, Yun; Liao, Duanping; Limacher, Marian C; Lin, Henry J; Lindgren, Cecilia M; Lubitz, Steven A; Mahajan, Anubha; McKnight, Barbara; Zu Schwabedissen, Henriette Meyer; Milaneschi, Yuri; Mononen, Nina; Morris, Andrew P; Nalls, Mike A; Navis, Gerjan; Neijts, Melanie; Nikus, Kjell; North, Kari E; O'Connor, Daniel T; Ormel, Johan; Perz, Siegfried; Peters, Annette; Psaty, Bruce M; Raitakari, Olli T; Risbrough, Victoria B; Sinner, Moritz F; Siscovick, David; Smit, Johannes H; Smith, Nicholas L; Soliman, Elsayed Z; Sotoodehnia, Nona; Staessen, Jan A; Stein, Phyllis K; Stilp, Adrienne M; Stolarz-Skrzypek, Katarzyna; Strauch, Konstantin; Sundström, Johan; Swenne, Cees A.; Syvänen, Ann-Christine; Tardif, Jean-Claude; Taylor, Kent D; Teumer, Alexander; Thornton, Timothy A; Tinker, Lesley E; Uitterlinden, André G; van Setten, Jessica; Voss, Andreas; Waldenberger, Melanie; Wilhelmsen, Kirk C; Willemsen, Gonneke; Wong, Quenna; Zhang, Zhu-Ming; Zonderman, Alan B; Cusi, Daniele; Evans, Michele K; Greiser, Halina K; van der Harst, Pim; Hassan, Mohammad; Ingelsson, Erik; Järvelin, Marjo-Riitta; Kääb, Stefan; Kähönen, Mika; Kivimaki, Mika; Kooperberg, Charles; Kuh, Diana; Lehtimäki, Terho; Lind, Lars; Nievergelt, Caroline M; O'Donnell, Chris J; Oldehinkel, Albertine J; Penninx, Brenda; Reiner, Alexander P; Riese, Harriëtte; Van Roon, Arie M.; Rioux, John D; Rotter, Jerome I; Sofer, Tamar; Stricker, Bruno H; Tiemeier, Henning; Vrijkotte, Tanja G M; Asselbergs, Folkert W; Brundel, Bianca J J M; Heckbert, Susan R; Whitsel, Eric A; den Hoed, Marcel; Snieder, Harold; de Geus, Eco J C

    2017-01-01

    Reduced cardiac vagal control reflected in low heart rate variability (HRV) is associated with greater risks for cardiac morbidity and mortality. In two-stage meta-analyses of genome-wide association studies for three HRV traits in up to 53,174 individuals of European ancestry, we detect 17

  6. estimated glomerular filtration rate and risk of survival in acute stroke

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2014-03-03

    Mar 3, 2014 ... ESTIMATED GLOMERULAR FILTRATION RATE AND RISK OF SURVIVAL IN ACUTE STROKE. E. I. Okaka, MBBS, FWACP, F. A. Imarhiagbe, MBChB, FMCP, F. E. Odiase, MBBS, FMCP, O. C. A. Okoye, MBBS, FWACP,. Department of Medicine, University of Benin Teaching Hospital, Benin City, Nigeria.

  7. 1988 failure rate screening data for fusion reliability and risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cadwallader, L.C.; Piet, S.J.

    1988-01-01

    This document contains failure rate screening data for application to fusion components. The screening values are generally fission or aerospace industry failure rate estimates that can be extrapolated for use by fusion system designers, reliability engineers and risk analysts. Failure rate estimates for tritium-bearing systems, liquid metal-cooled systems, gas-cooled systems, water-cooled systems and containment systems are given. Preliminary system availability estimates and selected initiating event frequency estimates are presented. This first edition document is valuable to design and safety analysis for the Compact Ignition Tokamak and the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor. 20 refs., 28 tabs

  8. Probabilistic quantitative microbial risk assessment model of norovirus from wastewater irrigated vegetables in Ghana using genome copies and fecal indicator ratio conversion for estimating exposure dose

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Owusu-Ansah, Emmanuel de-Graft Johnson; Sampson, Angelina; Amponsah, Samuel K.

    2017-01-01

    physical and environmental factors that might influence the reliability of using indicator organisms in microbial risk assessment. The challenges facing analytical studies on virus enumeration (genome copies or particles) have contributed to the already existing lack of data in QMRA modelling. This study......The need to replace the commonly applied fecal indicator conversions ratio (an assumption of 1:10− 5 virus to fecal indicator organism) in Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) with models based on quantitative data on the virus of interest has gained prominence due to the different...... attempts to fit a QMRA model to genome copies of norovirus data. The model estimates the risk of norovirus infection from the intake of vegetables irrigated with wastewater from different sources. The results were compared to the results of a corresponding model using the fecal indicator conversion ratio...

  9. Trends in state-level freight accident rates: An enhancement of risk factor development for RADTRAN

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saricks, C.; Kvitek, T.

    1991-01-01

    Under the Nuclear Waste Policy Act, the Department of Energy's Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM) is concerned with understanding and managing risk as it applies to the shipment of spent commercial nuclear reactor fuel. Understanding risk in relation to mode and geography may provide opportunities to minimize radiological and non-radiological risks of transportation. To enhance such an understanding, a set of state-or waterway-specific accident, fatality, and injury rates (expressed as rates per shipment kilometer) by transportation mode and highway administrative class was developed, using publicly-available data bases. Adjustments made to accommodate miscoded or incomplete information in accident data are described, as well as the procedures for estimating state-level flow data. Results indicate that the shipping conditions under which spent fuel is likely to be transported should be less subject to accidents than the ''average'' shipment within mode. 10 refs., 3 tabs

  10. Risk-free assets: Are they truly risk-free? A comparative study of South African rates and instruments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oosthuizen, A.V.

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Determining the price of a financial instrument is something that happens every day in the financial markets. Every price starts off with a spot price adjusted for interest until maturity of the particular instrument. The interest is usually described as risk-free interest. The price so determined is the most basic price that an investor is willing to pay if not risk is involved. Risk-free assets, then, are securities of which the future rates of return are known with certainty. An exceptional degree of confidence in the issuer of the security brings about this certainty. Risk-free assets are normally in the fixed income securities (capital markets investment category or in the liquid money market instruments such as treasury bills, category. This study attempts to determine whether the risk-free rates used by treasury managers and traders in South Africa to formulate their bond yield curves and which are used in valuation models, may be deemed risk-free. The study specifies certain criteria that an asset must satisfy in order to be used as a risk-free asset. Short term and long term South African instruments are compared to the US counterpart instruments, to gain an understanding of the South African instruments relative to the US ones. The behaviour of the risk-free instruments used in South Africa is also compared to the FTSE/JSE All Share Index and gold spot prices, which are perceived to be a risky asset classes. To gain some understanding of the behaviour of these instruments, analyses were done from different angles. The standard deviations of the daily percentage changes of the R157 were significantly lower than that of the ALSI and the gold spot price change. Compared to the ALSI and gold spot price, therefore, the R157 may be deemed a “low risk” instrument. The JIBAR was even less volatile that the R157. Interestingly, the US instruments were substantially more risky than the SA instruments over the analysis period. Also the JIBAR

  11. ICU Acquisition Rate, Risk Factors, and Clinical Significance of Digestive Tract Colonization With Extended-Spectrum Beta-Lactamase-Producing Enterobacteriaceae: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Detsis, Marios; Karanika, Styliani; Mylonakis, Eleftherios

    2017-04-01

    To evaluate the acquisition rate, identify risk factors, and estimate the risk for subsequent infection, associated with the colonization of the digestive tract with extended-spectrum beta-lactamase-producing Enterobacteriaceae during ICU-hospitalization. PubMed, EMBASE, and reference lists of all eligible articles. Included studies provided data on ICU-acquired colonization with extended-spectrum beta-lactamase-producing Enterobacteriaceae in previously noncolonized and noninfected patients and used the double disk synergy test for extended-spectrum beta-lactamase-producing Enterobacteriaceae phenotypic confirmation. Studies reporting extended-spectrum beta-lactamase-producing Enterobacteriaceae outbreaks or data on pediatric population were excluded. Two authors independently assessed study eligibility and performed data extraction. Thirteen studies (with 15,045 ICUs-patients) were evaluated using a random-effect model and a meta-regression analysis. The acquisition rate of digestive tract colonization during ICU stay was 7% (95% CI, 5-10) and it varies from 3% (95% CI, 2-4) and 4% (95% CI, 2-6) in the Americas and Europe to 21% (95% CI, 9-35) in the Western Pacific region. Previous hospitalization (risk ratio, 1.57 [95% CI, 1.07-2.31]) or antibiotic use (risk ratio, 1.65 [95% CI, 1.15-2.37]) and exposure to beta-lactams/beta-lactamase inhibitors (risk ratio, 1.78 [95% CI, 1.24-2.56]) and carbapenems (risk ratio, 2.13 [95% CI, 1.49-3.06]) during the ICU stay were independent risk factors for ICU-acquired colonization. Importantly, colonized patients were more likely to develop an extended-spectrum beta-lactamase-producing Enterobacteriaceae infection (risk ratio, 49.62 [95% CI, 20.42-120.58]). The sensitivity and specificity of prior colonization to predict subsequent extended-spectrum beta-lactamase-producing Enterobacteriaceae infection were 95.1% (95% CI, 54.7-99.7) and 89.2% (95% CI, 77.2-95.3), respectively. The ICU acquisition rate of extended-spectrum beta

  12. Storm/Quiet Ratio Comparisons Between TIMED/SABER NO (sup +)(v) Volume Emission Rates and Incoherent Scatter Radar Electron Densities at E-Region Altitudes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandez, J. R.; Mertens, C. J.; Bilitza, D.; Xu, X.; Russell, J. M., III; Mlynczak, M. G.

    2009-01-01

    Broadband infrared limb emission at 4.3 microns is measured by the TIMED/SABER instrument. At night, these emission observations at E-region altitudes are used to derive the so called NO+(v) Volume Emission Rate (VER). NO+(v) VER can be derived by removing the background CO2(v3) 4.3 microns radiance contribution using SABER-based non-LTE radiation transfer models, and by performing a standard Abel inversion on the residual radiance. SABER observations show that NO+(v) VER is significantly enhanced during magnetic storms in accordance with increased ionization of the neutral atmosphere by auroral electron precipitation, followed by vibrational excitation of NO+ (i.e., NO+(v)) from fast exothermic ion-neutral reactions, and prompt infrared emission at 4.3 m. Due to charge neutrality, the NO+(v) VER enhancements are highly correlated with electron density enhancements, as observed for example by Incoherent Scatter Radar (ISR). In order to characterize the response of the storm-time E-region from both SABER and ISR measurements, a Storm/Quiet ratio (SQR) quantity is defined as a function of altitude. For SABER, the SQR is the ratio of the storm-to-quiet NO+(v) VER. SQR is the storm-to-quiet ratio of electron densities for ISR. In this work, we compare SABER and ISR SQR values between 100 to 120 km. Results indicate good agreement between these measurements. SQR values are intended to be used as a correction factor to be included in an empirical storm-time correction to the International Reference Ionosphere model at E-region altitudes.

  13. [Injury rate and incidence of accidents with biological risk among infirmary students].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez Martín, A; Novalbos Ruiz, J P; Costa Alonso, M J; Zafra Mezcua, J A

    2000-09-09

    A study of the incidence and characteristics of biological accidents among infirmary students during their practicals at the hospital. A retrospective study carried out at five centres by means of two questionnaires, one on the duration of the training and the rate of accidents and the other on the characteristics, precautions and ports exposure behaviour. Out of 397 students, 70,5% had accidents at a rate of 64% (CI 95%, 59-68). Of these, 15% were accidents with biological risk, the majority being jabs (39%) and splashes (32,5%). It is worth note that 49,2% occurred while putting away the material and 58% in the absence of any individual protective measures. One out of 8 accidents implied a biological risk. A very high rate of accidents was observed with important deficiencies in security.

  14. Branching ratio and direct CP-violating rate asymmetry of the rare decays B →K*γand B→ργ

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Greub, C.; Simma, H.; Wyler, D.

    1994-06-01

    We calculate CP-violating rate asymmetries in the rare radiative decays B ± →K* ± γ and B ± →ρ ± γ. They arise because of the interference between leading-order penguin amplitudes and one-gluon corrections with absorptive phases, and provide unambiguous evidence for direct CP violation. Complementing earlier studies, we also investigate gluon exchange with the 'spectator' quark. The bound state effects in the exclusive matrix elements are taken into account by a covariant model, which yields a branching ratio BR(B→K*γ)=(4-5)x10 -5 in good agreement with the observed value. The bound state effects increase the CP asymmetry, which is of order 1% in the channel B→K*γ and 15% for B→ργ. (orig.)

  15. Determination of the Production Rate of $D^{*0}$ Mesons and of the Ratio V/(V+P) in $Z^{0} \\to c\\overline{c}$ Decays

    CERN Document Server

    Ackerstaff, K; Allison, J; Altekamp, N; Anderson, K J; Anderson, S; Arcelli, S; Asai, S; Ashby, S F; Axen, D A; Azuelos, Georges; Ball, A H; Barberio, E; Barlow, R J; Bartoldus, R; Batley, J Richard; Baumann, S; Bechtluft, J; Behnke, T; Bell, K W; Bella, G; Bentvelsen, Stanislaus Cornelius Maria; Bethke, Siegfried; Betts, S; Biebel, O; Biguzzi, A; Bird, S D; Blobel, Volker; Bloodworth, Ian J; Bobinski, M; Bock, P; Bonacorsi, D; Boutemeur, M; Braibant, S; Brigliadori, L; Brown, R M; Burckhart, Helfried J; Burgard, C; Bürgin, R; Capiluppi, P; Carnegie, R K; Carter, A A; Carter, J R; Chang, C Y; Charlton, D G; Chrisman, D; Clarke, P E L; Cohen, I; Conboy, J E; Cooke, O C; Couyoumtzelis, C; Coxe, R L; Cuffiani, M; Dado, S; Dallapiccola, C; Dallavalle, G M; Davis, R; De Jong, S; del Pozo, L A; de Roeck, A; Desch, Klaus; Dienes, B; Dixit, M S; Doucet, M; Duchovni, E; Duckeck, G; Duerdoth, I P; Eatough, D; Estabrooks, P G; Etzion, E; Evans, H G; Evans, M; Fabbri, Franco Luigi; Fanfani, A; Fanti, M; Faust, A A; Feld, L; Fiedler, F; Fierro, M; Fischer, H M; Fleck, I; Folman, R; Fong, D G; Foucher, M; Fürtjes, A; Futyan, D I; Gagnon, P; Gary, J W; Gascon, J; Gascon-Shotkin, S M; Geddes, N I; Geich-Gimbel, C; Geralis, T; Giacomelli, G; Giacomelli, P; Giacomelli, R; Gibson, V; Gibson, W R; Gingrich, D M; Glenzinski, D A; Goldberg, J; Goodrick, M J; Gorn, W; Grandi, C; Gross, E; Grunhaus, Jacob; Gruwé, M; Hajdu, C; Hanson, G G; Hansroul, M; Hapke, M; Hargrove, C K; Hart, P A; Hartmann, C; Hauschild, M; Hawkes, C M; Hawkings, R; Hemingway, Richard J; Herndon, M; Herten, G; Heuer, R D; Hildreth, M D; Hill, J C; Hillier, S J; Hobson, P R; Höcker, Andreas; Homer, R James; Honma, A K; Horváth, D; Hossain, K R; Howard, R; Hüntemeyer, P; Hutchcroft, D E; Igo-Kemenes, P; Imrie, D C; Ishii, K; Jawahery, A; Jeffreys, P W; Jeremie, H; Jimack, Martin Paul; Joly, A; Jones, C R; Jones, M; Jost, U; Jovanovic, P; Junk, T R; Kanzaki, J I; Karlen, D A; Kartvelishvili, V G; Kawagoe, K; Kawamoto, T; Kayal, P I; Keeler, Richard K; Kellogg, R G; Kennedy, B W; Kirk, J; Klier, A; Kluth, S; Kobayashi, T; Kobel, M; Koetke, D S; Kokott, T P; Kolrep, M; Komamiya, S; Kowalewski, R V; Kress, T; Krieger, P; Von Krogh, J; Kyberd, P; Lafferty, G D; Lahmann, R; Lai, W P; Lanske, D; Lauber, J; Lautenschlager, S R; Lawson, I; Layter, J G; Lazic, D; Lee, A M; Lefebvre, E; Lellouch, Daniel; Letts, J; Levinson, L; List, B; Lloyd, S L; Loebinger, F K; Long, G D; Losty, Michael J; Ludwig, J; Liu, D; Macchiolo, A; MacPherson, A L; Mannelli, M; Marcellini, S; Markopoulos, C; Markus, C; Martin, A J; Martin, J P; Martínez, G; Mashimo, T; Mättig, P; McDonald, W J; McKenna, J A; McKigney, E A; McMahon, T J; McPherson, R A; Meijers, F; Menke, S; Merritt, F S; Mes, H; Meyer, J; Michelini, Aldo; Mihara, S; Mikenberg, G; Miller, D J; Mincer, A; Mir, R; Mohr, W; Montanari, A; Mori, T; Nagai, K; Nakamura, I; Neal, H A; Nellen, B; Nisius, R; O'Neale, S W; Oakham, F G; Odorici, F; Ögren, H O; Oh, A; Oldershaw, N J; Oreglia, M J; Orito, S; Pálinkás, J; Pásztor, G; Pater, J R; Patrick, G N; Patt, J; Pérez-Ochoa, R; Petzold, S; Pfeifenschneider, P; Pilcher, J E; Pinfold, J L; Plane, D E; Poffenberger, P R; Poli, B; Posthaus, A; Rembser, C; Robertson, S; Robins, S A; Rodning, N L; Roney, J M; Rooke, A M; Rossi, A M; Routenburg, P; Rozen, Y; Runge, K; Runólfsson, O; Ruppel, U; Rust, D R; Sachs, K; Saeki, T; Sahr, O; Sang, W M; Sarkisyan-Grinbaum, E; Sbarra, C; Schaile, A D; Schaile, O; Scharf, F; Scharff-Hansen, P; Schieck, J; Schleper, P; Schmitt, B; Schmitt, S; Schöning, A; Schröder, M; Schumacher, M; Schwick, C; Scott, W G; Shears, T G; Shen, B C; Shepherd-Themistocleous, C H; Sherwood, P; Siroli, G P; Sittler, A; Skillman, A; Skuja, A; Smith, A M; Snow, G A; Sobie, Randall J; Söldner-Rembold, S; Springer, R W; Sproston, M; Stephens, K; Steuerer, J; Stockhausen, B; Stoll, K; Strom, D; Ströhmer, R; Szymanski, P; Tafirout, R; Talbot, S D; Taras, P; Tarem, S; Teuscher, R; Thiergen, M; Thomson, M A; Von Törne, E; Torrence, E; Towers, S; Trigger, I; Trócsányi, Z L; Tsur, E; Turcot, A S; Turner-Watson, M F; Ueda, I; Utzat, P; Van Kooten, R; Vannerem, P; Verzocchi, M; Vikas, P; Vokurka, E H; Voss, H; Wäckerle, F; Wagner, A; Ward, C P; Ward, D R; Watkins, P M; Watson, A T; Watson, N K; Wells, P S; Wermes, N; White, J S; Wilson, G W; Wilson, J A; Wyatt, T R; Yamashita, S; Yekutieli, G; Zacek, V; Zer-Zion, D

    1998-01-01

    In e^+e^- collisions at centre-of-mass energies around 91 GeV, D^*0 mesons have been reconstructed using data collected with the OPAL detector at LEP. The hadronisation fraction has been measured to be f(c -> D^*0) = 0.218 +/- 0.054 +/- 0.045 +/- 0.007, where the errors correspond to the statistical and systematic errors specific to this analysis, and to systematic uncertainties from externally measured branching fractions, respectively. Together with previous OPAL measurements of the hadron isation fractions of other charmed mesons, this value is used to investigate the relative production of observed vector and pseudoscalar charmed mesons in Z^0 -> cc(bar) decays. The production ratio production rate in hadronic Z^0 decays is presented.

  16. Rates of adult acute inpatients documented as at risk of refeeding syndrome by dietitians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Owers, Emma L; Reeves, Anneli I; Ko, Susan Y; Ellis, Aleshia K; Huxtable, Shannon L; Noble, Sally A; Porteous, Helen E; Newman, Eli J; Josephson, Christine A; Roth, Rachel A; Byrne, Clare E; Palmer, Michelle A

    2015-02-01

    Identification of Refeeding Syndrome (RFS) is vital for prevention and treatment of metabolic disturbances, yet no information exists that describes identification rates by dietitians in acute care. We aimed to describe rates and demographics of inpatients identified by dietitians as at-risk of RFS and factors associated with electrolyte levels post-dietetic assessment. Eligible participants were adult (≥ 18 yrs) acute care inpatients reviewed by dietitians between March 2012-February 2013 and not admitted to intensive care prior to first dietetic assessment. Patient information was sourced from medical charts. Chi-squared, t-tests and linear regression analyses were conducted. Of 1661 eligible inpatients (55%F, 65 ± 18 yrs), 9% (n = 151) were documented as at-risk of RFS in the first dietetic medical chart entry. On average, patients identified with RFS-risk had four days greater hospital stay, were 13 kg lighter, more likely classified SGA C (36% vs. 7%), and on a modified diet (52% vs. 35%) than non-RFS patients (p < 0.05). Very low and low electrolyte values occurred within seven days post-dietetic assessment in 7% and 52%, respectively, of inpatients with RFS-risk. Regression analysis showed that electrolyte supplementation was positively associated (β = 0.145-0.594), and number of RFS-related risk factors negatively associated (β = -0.044-0.122), with potassium, magnesium and phosphate levels within seven days post-dietetic assessment (p < 0.05). Nine percent of adult inpatients were documented as at-risk of RFS by dietitians. Identification of at-risk patients was in accordance with RFS guidelines. Electrolyte supplementation was positively associated with electrolyte levels post-assessment. Consistency of RFS-risk identification between dietitians requires determination. Crown Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Withdrawal rates as a consequence of disclosure of risk associated with manipulation of the cervical spine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Forrest Lianne

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The risk associated with cervical manipulation is controversial. Research in this area is widely variable but as yet the risk is not easily quantifiable. This presents a problem when informing the patient of risks when seeking consent and information may be withheld due to the fear of patient withdrawal from care. As yet, there is a lack of research into the frequency of risk disclosure and consequent withdrawal from manipulative treatment as a result. This study seeks to investigate the reality of this and to obtain insight into the attitudes of chiropractors towards informed consent and disclosure. Methods Questionnaires were posted to 200 UK chiropractors randomly selected from the register of the General Chiropractic Council. Results A response rate of 46% (n = 92 was achieved. Thirty-three per cent (n = 30 respondents were female and the mean number of years in practice was 10. Eighty-eight per cent considered explanation of the risks associated with any recommended treatment important when obtaining informed consent. However, only 45% indicated they always discuss this with patients in need of cervical manipulation. When asked whether they believed discussing the possibility of a serious adverse reaction to cervical manipulation could increase patient anxiety to the extent there was a strong possibility the patient would refuse treatment, 46% said they believed this could happen. Nonetheless, 80% said they believed they had a moral/ethical obligation to disclose risk associated with cervical manipulation despite these concerns. The estimated number of withdrawals throughout respondents' time in practice was estimated at 1 patient withdrawal for every 2 years in practice. Conclusion The withdrawal rate from cervical manipulation as a direct consequence of the disclosure of associated serious risks appears unfounded. However, notwithstanding legal obligations, reluctance to disclose risk due to fear of increasing patient

  18. Lower leptin/adiponectin ratio and risk of rapid lung function decline in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Suzuki, Masaru; Makita, Hironi; Östling, Jörgen

    2014-01-01

    , and single ELISAs were used to confirm the results. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Higher plasma adiponectin levels and a lower leptin/adiponectin ratio at enrollment were significantly associated with an annual decline in FEV1 even after controlling for age, sex, height, and body mass index in the Hokkaido...... COPD cohort study (P = 0.003, P = 0.004, respectively). A lower plasma leptin/adiponectin ratio was also significantly associated with an annual decline in FEV1 in subjects with airflow limitation in the CBQ study (P = 0.014), the patients of which had largely different clinical characteristics...... compared with the Hokkaido COPD cohort study. There were no significant associations between lung function decline and adipokine levels in subjects without airflow limitation. CONCLUSIONS: A lower leptin/adiponectin ratio was associated with lung function decline in patients with COPD in two independent...

  19. A Comparative Risk Assessment of Extended Integrated Leak Rate Testing Intervals

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oh, Ji Yong; Hwang, Seok Won; Lee, Byung Sik [Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power Co., Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2009-10-15

    This paper presents the risk impacts of extending the Integrated Leak Rate Testing (ILRT) intervals (from five years to ten years) of Yonggwang (YGN) Unit 1 and 2. These risk impacts depended on the annual variances of meteorological data and resident population. Main comparisons were performed between the initial risk assessment (2005) for the purpose of extending ILRT interval and risk reassessment (2009) where the changed plant internal configurations (core inventory and radioisotope release fraction) and plant external alterations (wind directions, rainfall and population distributions) were monitored. The reassessment showed that there was imperceptible risk increase when the ILRT interval was extended compared to the initial risk assessment. In addition, the increased value of the Large Early Release Frequency (LERF) also satisfied the acceptance guideline proposed on Reg. Guide 1.174. The MACCS II code was used for evaluating the offsite consequence analysis. The primary risk index were used as the Probabilistic Population Dose (PPD) by considering the early effects within 80 km. The Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) of YGN 1 and 2 was applied to evaluate the accident frequency of each source term category and the used PSA scope was limited to internal event.

  20. Ultrasound-guided fine needle aspiration versus core needle biopsy: comparison of post-biopsy hematoma rates and risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chae, In Hye; Kim, Eun-Kyung; Moon, Hee Jung; Yoon, Jung Hyun; Park, Vivian Y; Kwak, Jin Young

    2017-07-01

    To compare post-biopsy hematoma rates between ultrasound guided-fine needle aspiration and ultrasound guided-core needle biopsy, and to investigate risk factors for post-biopsy hematoma. A total of 5304 thyroid nodules which underwent ultrasound guided biopsy were included in this retrospective study. We compared clinical and US features between patients with and without post-biopsy hematoma. Associations between these features and post-biopsy hematoma were analyzed. Post-biopsy hematoma rate was 0.8% (43/5121) for ultrasound guided-fine needle aspiration and 4.9% (9/183) for ultrasound guided-core needle biopsy (P core needle biopsy (9/179, 5.0%) than with ultrasound guided-fine needle aspiration (9/1138, 0.8%) (P core needle biopsy was the only significant risk factor for post-biopsy hematoma (adjusted Odds Ratio, 6.458, P core needle biopsy than in ultrasound guided-fine needle aspiration and ultrasound guided-core needle biopsy was the only independent factor of post-biopsy hematoma in thyroid nodules.

  1. Importance of Android/Gynoid Fat Ratio in Predicting Metabolic and Cardiovascular Disease Risk in Normal Weight as well as Overweight and Obese Children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Regier, Michael

    2014-01-01

    Numerous studies have shown that android or truncal obesity is associated with a risk for metabolic and cardiovascular disease, yet there is evidence that gynoid fat distribution may be protective. However, these studies have focused on adults and obese children. The purpose of our study was to determine if the android/gynoid fat ratio is positively correlated with insulin resistance, HOMA2-IR, and dislipidemia in a child sample of varying body sizes. In 7–13-year-old children with BMI percentiles ranging from 0.1 to 99.6, the android/gynoid ratio was closely associated with insulin resistance and combined LDL + VLDL-cholesterol. When separated by sex, it became clear that these relationships were stronger in boys than in girls. Subjects were stratified into BMI percentile based tertiles. For boys, the android/gynoid ratio was significantly related to insulin resistance regardless of BMI tertile with and LDL + VLDL in tertiles 1 and 3. For girls, only LDL + VLDL showed any significance with android/gynoid ratio and only in tertile 2. We conclude that the android/gynoid fat ratio is closely associated with insulin resistance and LDL + VLDL-, “bad,” cholesterol in normal weight boys and may provide a measurement of metabolic and cardiovascular disease risk in that population. PMID:25302115

  2. Importance of android/gynoid fat ratio in predicting metabolic and cardiovascular disease risk in normal weight as well as overweight and obese children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samsell, Lennie; Regier, Michael; Walton, Cheryl; Cottrell, Lesley

    2014-01-01

    Numerous studies have shown that android or truncal obesity is associated with a risk for metabolic and cardiovascular disease, yet there is evidence that gynoid fat distribution may be protective. However, these studies have focused on adults and obese children. The purpose of our study was to determine if the android/gynoid fat ratio is positively correlated with insulin resistance, HOMA2-IR, and dislipidemia in a child sample of varying body sizes. In 7-13-year-old children with BMI percentiles ranging from 0.1 to 99.6, the android/gynoid ratio was closely associated with insulin resistance and combined LDL + VLDL-cholesterol. When separated by sex, it became clear that these relationships were stronger in boys than in girls. Subjects were stratified into BMI percentile based tertiles. For boys, the android/gynoid ratio was significantly related to insulin resistance regardless of BMI tertile with and LDL + VLDL in tertiles 1 and 3. For girls, only LDL + VLDL showed any significance with android/gynoid ratio and only in tertile 2. We conclude that the android/gynoid fat ratio is closely associated with insulin resistance and LDL + VLDL-, "bad," cholesterol in normal weight boys and may provide a measurement of metabolic and cardiovascular disease risk in that population.

  3. Sovereign ratings in the post-crisis world : an analysis of actual, shadow and relative risk ratings

    OpenAIRE

    Basu, Kaushik; De, Supriyo; Ratha, Dilip; Timmer, Hans

    2013-01-01

    This paper analyzes the evolution of sovereign credit ratings in the wake of the global financial crisis by studying changes in actual, shadow, and relative ratings between 2008 and 2012. For countries that do not have a rating from the major rating agencies, shadow ratings are estimated as a function of macroeconomic, structural, and governance variables. The shadow rating exercise confir...

  4. Association Between NCAP Ratings and Real-World Rear Seat Occupant Risk of Injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Metzger, Kristina B; Gruschow, Siobhan; Durbin, Dennis R; Curry, Allison E

    2015-01-01

    Several studies have evaluated the correlation between U.S. or Euro New Car Assessment Program (NCAP) ratings and injury risk to front seat occupants, in particular driver injuries. Conversely, little is known about whether NCAP 5-star ratings predict real-world risk of injury to restrained rear seat occupants. The NHTSA has identified rear seat occupant protection as a specific area under consideration for improvements to its NCAP. In order to inform NHTSA's efforts, we examined how NCAP's current 5-star rating system predicts risk of moderate or greater injury among restrained rear seat occupants in real-world crashes. We identified crash-involved vehicles, model year 2004-2013, in NASS-CDS (2003-2012) with known make and model and nonmissing occupant information. We manually matched these vehicles to their NCAP star ratings using data on make, model, model year, body type, and other identifying information. The resultant linked NASS-CDS and NCAP database was analyzed to examine associations between vehicle ratings and rear seat occupant injury risk; risk to front seat occupants was also estimated for comparison. Data were limited to restrained occupants and occupant injuries were defined as any injury with a maximum Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) score of 2 or greater. We linked 95% of vehicles in NASS-CDS to a specific vehicle in NCAP. The 18,218 vehicles represented an estimated 6 million vehicles with over 9 million occupants. Rear seat passengers accounted for 12.4% of restrained occupants. The risk of injury in all crashes for restrained rear seat occupants was lower in vehicles with a 5-star driver rating in frontal impact tests (1.4%) than with 4 or fewer stars (2.6%, P =.015); results were similar for the frontal impact passenger rating (1.3% vs. 2.4%, P =.024). Conversely, side impact driver and passenger crash tests were not associated with rear seat occupant injury risk (driver test: 1.7% for 5-star vs. 1.8% for 1-4 stars; passenger test: 1.6% for 5

  5. Freight-train derailment rates for railroad safety and risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xiang; Rapik Saat, M; Barkan, Christopher P L

    2017-01-01

    Derailments are the most common type of train accident in the United States. They cause damage to infrastructure, rolling stock and lading, disrupt service, and have the potential to cause casualties, and harm the environment. Train safety and risk analysis relies on accurate assessment of derailment likelihood. Derailment rate - the number of derailments normalized by traffic exposure - is a useful statistic to estimate the likelihood of a derailment. Despite its importance, derailment rate analysis using multiple factors has not been previously developed. In this paper, we present an analysis of derailment rates on Class I railroad mainlines based on data from the U.S. Federal Railroad Administration and the major freight railroads. The point estimator and confidence interval of train and car derailment rates are developed by FRA track class, method of operation and annual traffic density. The analysis shows that signaled track with higher FRA track class and higher traffic density is associated with a lower derailment rate. The new accident rates have important implications for safety and risk management decisions, such as the routing of hazardous materials. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Asymmetry and Risk Premia in the Brazilian Term Structure of Interest Rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcelo Ganem

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available The risk premium in the Brazilian term structure of interest rates is partially driven by some specific defensive behavior following past monetary decisions. Until 2008, the Brazilian Central Bank has primarily dealt with domestic and external crises by raising the short term rate to restrain capital outflows, generating a well-known asymmetry in the market’s response functions to risk aversion. Therefore, the traditional parameterization of risk based on mean and variance estimators fails to capture the market price of risk eventually assigned to higher order moments of bond returns across several maturities. In this paper we propose an arbitrage-free, discrete-time model that provides the form for a lagged endogenous regression which tests the significance and magnitude of the market price of asymmetry in the Brazilian fixed income market. The results are analyzed from a historical perspective, comparing the evolution of the price of asymmetry, the improvement of Brazil’s sovereign risk and the monetary policy conduction from 2003 to 2009.

  7. Probabilistic quantitative microbial risk assessment model of norovirus from wastewater irrigated vegetables in Ghana using genome copies and fecal indicator ratio conversion for estimating exposure dose.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Owusu-Ansah, Emmanuel de-Graft Johnson; Sampson, Angelina; Amponsah, Samuel K; Abaidoo, Robert C; Dalsgaard, Anders; Hald, Tine

    2017-12-01

    The need to replace the commonly applied fecal indicator conversions ratio (an assumption of 1:10 -5 virus to fecal indicator organism) in Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) with models based on quantitative data on the virus of interest has gained prominence due to the different physical and environmental factors that might influence the reliability of using indicator organisms in microbial risk assessment. The challenges facing analytical studies on virus enumeration (genome copies or particles) have contributed to the already existing lack of data in QMRA modelling. This study attempts to fit a QMRA model to genome copies of norovirus data. The model estimates the risk of norovirus infection from the intake of vegetables irrigated with wastewater from different sources. The results were compared to the results of a corresponding model using the fecal indicator conversion ratio to estimate the norovirus count. In all scenarios of using different water sources, the application of the fecal indicator conversion ratio underestimated the norovirus disease burden, measured by the Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs), when compared to results using the genome copies norovirus data. In some cases the difference was >2 orders of magnitude. All scenarios using genome copies met the 10 -4 DALY per person per year for consumption of vegetables irrigated with wastewater, although these results are considered to be highly conservative risk estimates. The fecal indicator conversion ratio model of stream-water and drain-water sources of wastewater achieved the 10 -6 DALY per person per year threshold, which tends to indicate an underestimation of health risk when compared to using genome copies for estimating the dose. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Bayesian Averaging over Many Dynamic Model Structures with Evidence on the Great Ratios and Liquidity Trap Risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R.W. Strachan (Rodney); H.K. van Dijk (Herman)

    2008-01-01

    textabstractA Bayesian model averaging procedure is presented that makes use of a finite mixture of many model structures within the class of vector autoregressive (VAR) processes. It is applied to two empirical issues. First, stability of the Great Ratios in U.S. macro-economic time series is

  9. 17 CFR 229.503 - (Item 503) Prospectus summary, risk factors, and ratio of earnings to fixed charges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... ratio of earnings to fixed charges. The registrant must furnish this information in plain English. See... you do not caption it as a summary, you still must provide that information in plain English... discussion of the most significant factors that make the offering speculative or risky. This discussion must...

  10. Association of suicide rates, gun ownership, conservatism and individual suicide risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kposowa, Augustine J

    2013-09-01

    The purpose of the study was to examine the association of suicide rates, firearm ownership, political conservatism, religious integration at the state level, and individual suicide risk. Social structural and social learning and social integration theories were theoretical frameworks employed. It was hypothesized that higher suicide rates, higher state firearm availability, and state conservatism elevate individual suicide risk. Data were pooled from the Multiple Cause of Death Files. Multilevel logistic regression models were fitted to all deaths occurring in 2000 through 2004 by suicide. The state suicide rate significantly elevated individual suicide risk (AOR = 1.042, CI = 1.037, 1.046). Firearm availability at the state level was associated with significantly higher odds of individual suicide (AOR = 1.004, CI = 1.003, 1.006). State political conservatism elevated the odds of individual suicides (AOR = 1.005, CI = 1.003, 1.007), while church membership at the state level reduced individual odds of suicide (AOR = 0.995, CI = 0.993, 0.996). The results held even after controlling for socioeconomic and demographic variables at the individual level. It was concluded that the observed association between individual suicide odds and national suicide rates, and firearm ownership cannot be discounted. Future research ought to focus on integrating individual level data and contextual variables when testing for the impact of firearm ownership. Support was found for social learning and social integration theories.

  11. 12 CFR 3.6 - Minimum capital ratios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... should have well-diversified risks, including no undue interest rate risk exposure; excellent control... 12 Banks and Banking 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Minimum capital ratios. 3.6 Section 3.6 Banks and Banking COMPTROLLER OF THE CURRENCY, DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY MINIMUM CAPITAL RATIOS; ISSUANCE...

  12. Relative Citation Ratio of Top Twenty Macedonian Biomedical Scientists in PubMed: A New Metric that Uses Citation Rates to Measure Influence at the Article Level.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spiroski, Mirko

    2016-06-15

    The aim of this study was to analyze relative citation ratio (RCR) of top twenty Macedonian biomedical scientists with a new metric that uses citation rates to measure influence at the article level. Top twenty Macedonian biomedical scientists were identified by GoPubMed on the base of the number of deposited abstracts in PubMed, corrected with the data from previously published paper, and completed with the Macedonian biomedical scientists working in countries outside the Republic of Macedonia, but born or previously worked in the country. iCite was used as a tool to access a dashboard of bibliometrics for papers associated with a portfolio. The biggest number of top twenty Macedonian biomedical scientists has RCR lower than one. Only four Macedonian biomedical scientists have bigger RCR in comparison with those in PubMed. The most prominent RCR of 2.29 has Rosoklija G. RCR of the most influenced individual papers deposited in PubMed has shown the biggest value for the paper of Efremov D (35.19). This paper has the biggest number of authors (860). It is necessary to accept top twenty Macedonian biomedical scientists as an example of new metric that uses citation rates to measure influence at the article level, rather than qualification of the best Macedonian biomedical scientists.

  13. Effect of the boundary layer thickness on the hydrodynamic instabilities of coaxial atomization under harmonic flow rate and swirl ratio fluctuations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jorajuria, Corentin; Machicoane, Nathanael; Osuna, Rodrigo; Aliseda, Alberto

    2017-11-01

    Break-up of a liquid jet by a high speed coaxial gas jet is a frequently-used configuration to generate a high quality spray. Despite its extended use in engineering and natural processes, the instabilities that control the liquid droplet size and their spatio-temporal distribution in the spray are not completely understood. We present an experimental measurements of the near field in a canonical coaxial gas-liquid atomizer. The liquid Reynolds number is constant at 103, while the gas jet Reynolds number is varied from 104-106. The liquid injection rate and the swirl ratio are harmonically modulated to understand the effect of unsteadiness on the interfacial instability that triggers primary break-up. The gas velocity is measured using a combination of hot-wire anemometry and 3D PIV, resolving the gas boundary layer and the three-dimensionality of the flow, particularly in the cases with swirl. The development of the hydrodynamic instabilities on the liquid-gas interface is quantified using high speed visualizations at the exit of the nozzle and related to the frequency and growth rates predicted by stability analysis of this boundary layer flow. The resulting droplet size distribution is measured at the end of the break-up process via Particle Phase Doppler Anemometry and compared to stability analysis predictions statistics.

  14. Low-Dose-Rate Brachytherapy Versus Cryotherapy in Low- and Intermediate-Risk Prostate Cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gestaut, Matthew M.; Cai, Wendi; Vyas, Shilpa; Patel, Belur J.; Hasan, Salman A.; MunozMaldonado, Yolanda; Deb, Niloyjyoti; Swanson, Gregory

    2017-01-01

    Purpose: Cryotherapy and brachytherapy are definitive local treatment options for low- to intermediate-risk prostate cancer. There are both prospective and retrospective data for brachytherapy, but the use of cryotherapy has been limited primarily to single-institution retrospective studies. Currently, no published evidence has compared low-dose-rate brachytherapy versus cryotherapy. Methods and Materials: Institutional review board approval was obtained to conduct a retrospective chart review of consecutive patients treated at our institution from 1990 to 2012. For inclusion, patients must have received a prostate cancer diagnosis and have been considered to have low- to intermediate-risk disease according to the National Comprehensive Cancer Network criteria. All patients received brachytherapy or cryotherapy treatment. Disease specifics and failure details were collected for all patients. Failure was defined as prostate-specific antigen nadir +2 ng/mL. Results: A total of 359 patients were analyzed. The groups comprised 50 low-risk cryotherapy (LRC), 92 intermediate-risk cryotherapy (IRC), 133 low-risk brachytherapy (LRB), and 84 intermediate-risk brachytherapy (IRB) patients. The median prostate-specific antigen follow-up periods were 85.6 months (LRC), 59.2 months (IRC), 74.9 months (LRB), and 59.8 months (IRB). The 5-year biochemical progression–free survival (bPFS) rate was 57.9% in the cryotherapy group versus 89.6% in the brachytherapy group (P<.0001). The 5-year bPFS rate was 70.0% (LRC), 51.4% (IRC), 89.4% (LRB), and 89.7% (IRB). The bPFS rate was significantly different between brachytherapy and cryotherapy for low- and intermediate-risk groups (P<.05). The mean nadir temperature reached for cryotherapy patients was −35°C (range, −96°C to −6°C). Cryotherapy used a median of 2 freeze-thaw cycles (range, 2-4 freeze-thaw cycles). Conclusions: Results from this study suggest that cryotherapy is inferior to brachytherapy for patients with

  15. The Credit-Risk Decision Mechanism on Fixed Loan Interest Rate with Imperfect Information

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    In this paper, decision mechanism of credit-risk for banks is studied when the loan interest rate is fixed with asymmetry information in credit market. We give out the designs of rationing and non-rationing on credit risky decision mechanism when collateral value provided by an entrepreneur is not less than the minimum demands of the bank. It shows that under the action of the mechanism, banks could efficiently identify the risk size of the project. Finally, the condition of the project investigation of bank is given over again.

  16. Low-Dose-Rate Brachytherapy Versus Cryotherapy in Low- and Intermediate-Risk Prostate Cancer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gestaut, Matthew M., E-mail: Matthew.Gestaut@BSWHealth.org [Department of Radiation Oncology, Baylor Scott and White Memorial Hospital, Texas A& M University School of Medicine, Temple, Texas (United States); Cai, Wendi [Department of Biostatistics, Baylor Scott and White Health, Temple, Texas (United States); Vyas, Shilpa [Department of Radiation Oncology, Swedish Cancer Institute, Seattle, Washington (United States); Patel, Belur J. [Department of Urology, Baylor Scott and White Memorial Hospital, Texas A& M University School of Medicine, Temple, Texas (United States); Hasan, Salman A. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Baylor Scott and White Memorial Hospital, Texas A& M University School of Medicine, Temple, Texas (United States); MunozMaldonado, Yolanda [Department of Biostatistics, Baylor Scott and White Health, Temple, Texas (United States); Deb, Niloyjyoti; Swanson, Gregory [Department of Radiation Oncology, Baylor Scott and White Memorial Hospital, Texas A& M University School of Medicine, Temple, Texas (United States)

    2017-05-01

    Purpose: Cryotherapy and brachytherapy are definitive local treatment options for low- to intermediate-risk prostate cancer. There are both prospective and retrospective data for brachytherapy, but the use of cryotherapy has been limited primarily to single-institution retrospective studies. Currently, no published evidence has compared low-dose-rate brachytherapy versus cryotherapy. Methods and Materials: Institutional review board approval was obtained to conduct a retrospective chart review of consecutive patients treated at our institution from 1990 to 2012. For inclusion, patients must have received a prostate cancer diagnosis and have been considered to have low- to intermediate-risk disease according to the National Comprehensive Cancer Network criteria. All patients received brachytherapy or cryotherapy treatment. Disease specifics and failure details were collected for all patients. Failure was defined as prostate-specific antigen nadir +2 ng/mL. Results: A total of 359 patients were analyzed. The groups comprised 50 low-risk cryotherapy (LRC), 92 intermediate-risk cryotherapy (IRC), 133 low-risk brachytherapy (LRB), and 84 intermediate-risk brachytherapy (IRB) patients. The median prostate-specific antigen follow-up periods were 85.6 months (LRC), 59.2 months (IRC), 74.9 months (LRB), and 59.8 months (IRB). The 5-year biochemical progression–free survival (bPFS) rate was 57.9% in the cryotherapy group versus 89.6% in the brachytherapy group (P<.0001). The 5-year bPFS rate was 70.0% (LRC), 51.4% (IRC), 89.4% (LRB), and 89.7% (IRB). The bPFS rate was significantly different between brachytherapy and cryotherapy for low- and intermediate-risk groups (P<.05). The mean nadir temperature reached for cryotherapy patients was −35°C (range, −96°C to −6°C). Cryotherapy used a median of 2 freeze-thaw cycles (range, 2-4 freeze-thaw cycles). Conclusions: Results from this study suggest that cryotherapy is inferior to brachytherapy for patients with

  17. Ischemic risk stratification by means of multivariate analysis of the heart rate variability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Valencia, José F; Vallverdú, Montserrat; Caminal, Pere; Porta, Alberto; Voss, Andreas; Schroeder, Rico; Vázquez, Rafael; Bayés de Luna, Antonio

    2013-01-01

    In this work, a univariate and multivariate statistical analysis of indexes derived from heart rate variability (HRV) was conducted to stratify patients with ischemic dilated cardiomyopathy (IDC) in cardiac risk groups. Indexes conditional entropy, refined multiscale entropy (RMSE), detrended fluctuation analysis, time and frequency analysis, were applied to the RR interval series (beat-to-beat series), for single and multiscale complexity analysis of the HRV in IDC patients. Also, clinical parameters were considered. Two different end-points after a follow-up of three years were considered: (i) analysis A, with 151 survivor patients as a low risk group and 13 patients that suffered sudden cardiac death as a high risk group; (ii) analysis B, with 192 survivor patients as a low risk group and 30 patients that suffered cardiac mortality as a high risk group. A univariate and multivariate linear discriminant analysis was used as a statistical technique for classifying patients in risk groups. Sensitivity (Sen) and specificity (Spe) were calculated as diagnostic criteria in order to evaluate the performance of the indexes and their linear combinations. Sen and Spe values of 80.0% and 72.9%, respectively, were obtained during daytime by combining one clinical parameter and one index from RMSE, and during nighttime Sen = 80% and Spe = 73.4% were attained by combining one clinical factor and two indexes from RMSE. In particular, relatively long time scales were more relevant for classifying patients into risk groups during nighttime, while during daytime shorter scales performed better. The results suggest that the left atrial size, indexed to body surface and RMSE indexes are those that allow enhanced classification of ischemic patients in their respective risk groups, confirming that a single measurement is not enough to fully characterize ischemic risk patients and the clinical relevance of HRV complexity measures. (paper)

  18. The impact of realistic models of mass segregation on the event rate of extreme-mass ratio inspirals and cusp re-growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amaro-Seoane, Pau; Preto, Miguel

    2011-05-01

    One of the most interesting sources of gravitational waves (GWs) for LISA is the inspiral of compact objects on to a massive black hole (MBH), commonly referred to as an 'extreme-mass ratio inspiral' (EMRI). The small object, typically a stellar black hole, emits significant amounts of GW along each orbit in the detector bandwidth. The slowly, adiabatic inspiral of these sources will allow us to map spacetime around MBHs in detail, as well as to test our current conception of gravitation in the strong regime. The event rate of this kind of source has been addressed many times in the literature and the numbers reported fluctuate by orders of magnitude. On the other hand, recent observations of the Galactic centre revealed a dearth of giant stars inside the inner parsec relative to the numbers theoretically expected for a fully relaxed stellar cusp. The possibility of unrelaxed nuclei (or, equivalently, with no or only a very shallow cusp, or core) adds substantial uncertainty to the estimates. Having this timely question in mind, we run a significant number of direct-summation N-body simulations with up to half a million particles to calibrate a much faster orbit-averaged Fokker-Planck code. We show that, under quite generic initial conditions, the time required for the growth of a relaxed, mass segregated stellar cusp is shorter than a Hubble time for MBHs with M• boosting the EMRI rates by a factor of ~10 in comparison to what would result from a 7/4-Bahcall and Wolf cusp resulting in ~250 events per Gyr per Milky Way type galaxy. Such an intrinsic rate should translate roughly into ~102-7 × 102 sbh's (EMRIs detected by LISA over a mission lifetime of 2 or 5 years, respectively), depending on the detailed assumptions regarding LISA detection capabilities.

  19. Urine albumin/creatinine ratio, high sensitivity C-reactive protein and N-terminal pro brain natriuretic peptide--three new cardiovascular risk markers--do they improve risk prediction and influence treatment?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Michael H; Sehestedt, Thomas; Lyngbaek, Stig

    2010-01-01

    -proBNP), related to hemodynamic cardiovascular risk factors, high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP), related to metabolic cardiovascular risk factors and urine albumin/creatinine ratio (UACR), related to hemodynamic as well as metabolic risk factors. In healthy subjects with a 10-year risk of cardiovascular...... death lower than 5% based on HeartScore and therefore not eligible for primary prevention, the actual 10-year risk of cardiovascular death exceeded 5% in a small subgroup of subjects with UACR higher than the 95-percentile of approximately 1.6 mg/mmol. Combined use of high UACR or high hsCRP identified...... a larger subgroup of 16% with high cardiovascular risk in which primary prevention may be advised despite low-moderate cardiovascular risk based on HeartScore. Furthermore, combined use of high UACR or high Nt-proBNP in subjects with known cardiovascular disease or diabetes identified a large subgroup...

  20. Prior rates of visual field loss and lifetime risk of blindness in glaucomatous patients undergoing trabeculectomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foulsham, W S; Fu, L; Tatham, A J

    2015-10-01

    Trend-based analyses examining rates of visual field (VF) loss in glaucoma are useful for predicting risk of vision-related morbidity. Although patients with faster losses are likely to require treatment escalation, little is known about rates that might trigger a decision to intervene surgically. The aims of this study were to investigate prior rates of VF loss in patients attending for trabeculectomy and to estimate, in the absence of surgical intervention, lifetime risk of visual impairment, and blindness. A retrospective analysis of 117 eyes of 86 consecutive patients with glaucoma attending for trabeculectomy, including 53 patients referred from general ophthalmology clinics and 33 patients from specialist glaucoma clinics. Rates of change in standard automated perimetry mean deviation were examined using linear regression and random coefficient models. Risk of lifetime visual impairment and blindness was calculated using life expectancy data. Mean age at surgery was 71.0±9.7 years. Patients were followed for 10.7±7.5 years prior to surgery with an average of seven useable fields per eye. On average patients referred from general clinics lost 1.04 dB/year compared with 0.77 dB/year in those referred from glaucoma clinics (P=0.070). Patients referred from general clinics had more medication changes prior to surgery (3.4 and 2.6 changes, respectively; P=0.004). Given Scottish life expectancy data, untreated, 61 eyes (52%) would have passed the threshold for visual impairment, whereas 40 (34%) would have passed the threshold demarcating blindness. Patients attending for trabeculectomy had faster average rates of field loss prior to surgery than published values for the general glaucoma population with over one-third of eyes studied predicted to have become blind without intervention. Those managed by glaucoma specialists had fewer changes in medication and tended to slower rates of VF loss, although the latter did not reach statistical significance.

  1. Risk factors and outcomes of high peritonitis rate in continuous ambulatory peritoneal dialysis patients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Yuanshi; Xie, Xishao; Xiang, Shilong; Yang, Xin; Zhang, Xiaohui; Shou, Zhangfei; Chen, Jianghua

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Peritonitis remains a major complication of peritoneal dialysis (PD). A high peritonitis rate (HPR) affects continuous ambulatory peritoneal dialysis (CAPD) patients’ technique survival and mortality. Predictors and outcomes of HPR, rather than the first peritonitis episode, were rarely studied in the Chinese population. In this study, we examined the risk factors associated with HPR and its effects on clinical outcomes in CAPD patients. This is a single center, retrospective, observational cohort study. A total of 294 patients who developing at least 1 episode of peritonitis were followed up from March 1st, 2002, to July 31, 2014, in our PD center. Multivariate logistic regression was used to determine the factors associated with HPR, and the Cox proportional hazard model was conducted to assess the effects of HPR on clinical outcomes. During the study period of 2917.5 patient-years, 489 episodes of peritonitis were recorded, and the total peritonitis rate was 0.168 episodes per patient-year. The multivariate analysis showed that factors associated with HPR include a quick occurrence of peritonitis after CAPD initiation (shorter than 12 months), and a low serum albumin level at the start of CAPD. In the Cox proportional hazard model, HPR was a significant predictor of technique failure. There were no differences between HPR and low peritonitis rate (LPR) group for all-cause mortality. However, when the peritonitis rate was considered as a continuous variable, a positive correlation was observed between the peritonitis rate and mortality. We found the quick peritonitis occurrence after CAPD and the low serum albumin level before CAPD were strongly associated with an HPR. Also, our results verified that HPR was positively correlated with technique failure. More importantly, the increase in the peritonitis rate suggested a higher risk of all-cause mortality. These results may help to identify and target patients who are at higher risk of HPR at the start

  2. ASPECTS CONCERNING THE DETERMINATION OF BANKRUPTCY RISK BY SOLVENCY AND LIQUIDITY RATIOS IN THE COMPANIES LISTED ON THE BUCHAREST STOCK EXCHANGE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Teodor Hada

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents issues related to determining the bankruptcy risk for 64 companies listed on the Bucharest Stock Exchange.The purpose of this paper is to determine the percentage of companies falling within the normal range. In the introduction, we set the goal, the research methodology, and the novelty value of this work. Hereinafter, we presented different views of risk concepts, bankruptcy, solvency and liquidity. After that, based on theoretical presentations, a case study was conducted to determine the solvency and liquidity ratios. In the end, on the basis of the above considerations, the conclusions were established and some proposals were listed.

  3. Value at risk using financial copulas: Application to the Mexican exchange rate (2002-2011

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tania Nadiezhda Plascencia Cuevas

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays, the volatility of exchange rate is a crucial and a transcendental issue for all transactions, negotiations and operations taking place in foreign currency, being an objective and an accurate prediction the cornerstone. Therefore, the main objective of this research is to analyze whether the Mexican exchange rate market, risk assessment using traditional VaR and VaR with copulas methodologies are more accurate when the estimates are made for a wide historical time-series or two periods for certain, helping it to predict the maximum losses that may be, with the main motivation to have a efficient hedging strategy. The principal conclusion is that assessing risk with these methodologies, the series does not necessarily have to include more than five years, considering that the use of copulas as a dependent measure make that the prediction fits better to the movements of the real returns.

  4. Quantification of Gains and Risks of Static Thermal Rating Based on Typical Meteorological Year

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Heckenbergerová, Jana; Musílek, P.; Filimonenkov, K.

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 44, č. 1 (2013), s. 227-235 ISSN 0142-0615 R&D Projects: GA MŠk LD12009 Grant - others:GA AV ČR(CZ) M100300904 Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : Overhead power transmission lines * Conductor ampacity * Probabilistic static thermal rating * Typical meteorological year * Risk tolerance * Energy throughput Subject RIV: JE - Non-nuclear Energetics, Energy Consumption ; Use Impact factor: 3.432, year: 2012

  5. Political Risk and Foreign Exchange Rates: an Efficient-Market Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Jean-Claude Cosset; Bruno Doutriaux de la Rianderie

    1985-01-01

    This paper examines the reaction of the foreign exchange market to the announcement of changes in the business environment of a country. Our results suggest that sampled political risk news conveys important information about a country's investment climate and causes its currency's exchange rate to vary. It appears, however, that the reaction of the foreign exchange market is more dramatic for unfavorable events than for favorable events. The evidence presented is also consisted with the hypo...

  6. The Correlation between the Triglyceride to High Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol Ratio and Computed Tomography-Measured Visceral Fat and Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors in Local Adult Male Subjects

    OpenAIRE

    Park, Hye-Rin; Shin, Sae-Ron; Han, A Lum; Jeong, Yong Joon

    2015-01-01

    Background We studied the association between the triglyceride to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio and computed tomography-measured visceral fat as well as cardiovascular risk factors among Korean male adults. Methods We measured triglycerides, high density lipoprotein cholesterol, body mass, waist circumference, fasting plasma glucose, hemoglobin A1c, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, visceral fat, and subcutaneous fat among 372 Korean men. The visceral fat and sub...

  7. Tobacco, alcohol, and other risk behaviors in film: how well do MPAA ratings distinguish content?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tickle, Jennifer J; Beach, Michael L; Dalton, Madeline A

    2009-12-01

    To evaluate the usefulness of Motion Picture Association of America (MPAA) ratings for parental selection of appropriate films for children, the 100 top grossing movies each year from 1996 through 2004 (N = 900) were content analyzed to measure risk behaviors in each film. More restrictive MPAA ratings (R and PG-13) were associated with increased mean seconds of portrayals of tobacco use, alcohol use, and sexual content; increased frequency of violent content; and increased salience of drug use. MPAA ratings, however, did not clearly distinguish films based on tobacco or alcohol use. Fifty percent of R-rated movies contained 124 seconds or more of tobacco use, comparable with 26% of PG-13 and 17% of PG movies. Fifty percent of R-rated movies contained 162 seconds or more of alcohol use, comparable with 49% of PG-13 and 25% of PG movies. Because of the high degree of overlap in alcohol and tobacco content between rating categories, the MPAA rating system, as currently defined, is not adequate for parents who wish to limit their children's exposure to tobacco or alcohol content in movies.

  8. Prevalence Rate and Risk Factors of Depression in Outpatients with Premature Ejaculation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiansheng Zhang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to investigate the prevalence rate and risk factors of depression in outpatients who were diagnosed with PE. Therefore, between September 2009 and September 2011, 1801 outpatients at andrology clinics were enrolled and consented to participate in our survey by completed a verbal questionnaire. It included the following: (1 demographic data (e.g., age, body mass index, (2 PE duration, medical history, and sexual history, (3 self-estimated intravaginal ejaculatory latency times, (4 the Zung Self-rating Depression Scale (SDS, and (5 the National Institute of Health Chronic Prostatitis Symptom Index (NIH-CPSI and (6 the International Index of Erectile Function (IIEF-5. The results showed that a total of 1,206 patients were diagnosed with PE. The prevalence rate of depression in these PE patients was 26.78%. Depression was associated with PE duration, NIH-CPSI score, and IIEF-5 score. Risk factors for depression specifically included PE durations for 13–24, 25–60, or ≥61 months, CPSI scores of 15–30 or ≥31, and IIEF-5 scores <22. These findings suggested that several associated factors (PE duration, CPSI scores, and IIEF-5 scores were the risk factors of depression in men with PE.

  9. Interaction between Single Nucleotide Polymorphism and Urinary Sodium, Potassium, and Sodium-Potassium Ratio on the Risk of Hypertension in Korean Adults

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yeong Mi Park

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Hypertension is a complex disease explained with diverse factors including environmental factors and genetic factors. The objectives of this study were to determine the interaction effects between gene variants and 24 h estimated urinary sodium and potassium excretion and sodium-potassium excretion ratios on the risk of hypertension. A total of 8839 participants were included in the genome-wide association study (GWAS to find genetic factors associated with hypertension. Tanaka and Kawasaki formulas were applied to estimate 24 h urinary sodium and potassium excretion. A total of 4414 participants were included in interaction analyses to identify the interaction effects of gene variants according to 24 h estimated urinary factors on the risk of hypertension. CSK rs1378942 and CSK-MIR4513 rs3784789 were significantly modified by urinary sodium-potassium excretion ratio. In addition, MKLN rs1643270 with urinary potassium excretion, LOC101929750 rs7554672 with urinary sodium and potassium excretion, and TENM4 rs10466739 with urinary sodium-potassium excretion ratio showed significant interaction effects. The present study results indicated that the mutant alleles of CSK rs1378942 and CSK-MIR4513 rs3784789 had the strongest protective effects against hypertension in the middle group of 24 h estimated urinary sodium-potassium excretion ratio. Further studies are needed to replicate these analyses in other populations.

  10. TNF-α/IL-10 ratio correlates with burn severity and may serve as a risk predictor of increased susceptibility to infections

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amy Tsurumi

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Severe burn injury renders patients susceptible to multiple infection episodes, however identifying specific patient groups at high risk remains challenging. Burn-induced inflammatory response dramatically modifies the levels of various cytokines. Whether these changes could predict susceptibility to infections remains unknown. The aim of this study was to determine the early changes in the pro- to anti-inflammatory cytokine ratio and investigate its ability to predict susceptibility to repeated infections after severe burn trauma. The patient population consisted of 34 adult patients having early (≤48 hours since injury blood draws following severe (≥20% total burn surface area (TBSA burn injury, and suffering from a first infection episode at least one day after blood collection. Plasma TNF-α and IL-10 levels were measured to explore the association between the TNF-α/IL-10 ratio, hypersusceptibility to infections, burn size (TBSA, and common severity scores (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHEII, Baux, modified Baux (R-Baux, Ryan Score, Abbreviated Burn Severity Index (ABSI. TNF-α/IL10 plasma ratio measured shortly after burn trauma was inversely correlated with burn size and the injury severity scores investigated, and was predictive of repeated infections (≥3 infection episodes outcome (AUROC [95%CI] of 0.80 [0.63–0.93]. Early measures of circulating TNF-α/IL10 ratio may be a previously unidentified biomarker associated with burn injury severity and predictive of the risk of hypersusceptibility to repeated infections.

  11. Regional Inversion of the Maximum Carboxylation Rate (Vcmax) through the Sunlit Light Use Efficiency Estimated Using the Corrected Photochemical Reflectance Ratio Derived from MODIS Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, T.; Chen, J. M.

    2016-12-01

    The maximum carboxylation rate (Vcmax), despite its importance in terrestrial carbon cycle modelling, remains challenging to obtain for large scales. In this study, an attempt has been made to invert the Vcmax using the gross primary productivity from sunlit leaves (GPPsun) with the physiological basis that the photosynthesis rate for leaves exposed to high solar radiation is mainly determined by the Vcmax. Since the GPPsun can be calculated through the sunlit light use efficiency (ɛsun), the main focus becomes the acquisition of ɛsun. Previous studies using site level reflectance observations have shown the ability of the photochemical reflectance ratio (PRR, defined as the ratio between the reflectance from an effective band centered around 531nm and a reference band) in tracking the variation of ɛsun for an evergreen coniferous stand and a deciduous broadleaf stand separately and the potential of a NDVI corrected PRR (NPRR, defined as the product of NDVI and PRR) in producing a general expression to describe the NPRR-ɛsun relationship across different plant function types. In this study, a significant correlation (R2 = 0.67, p<0.001) between the MODIS derived NPRR and the site level ɛsun calculated using flux data for four Canadian flux sites has been found for the year 2010. For validation purpose, the ɛsun in 2009 for the same sites are calculated using the MODIS NPRR and the expression from 2010. The MODIS derived ɛsun matches well with the flux calculated ɛsun (R2 = 0.57, p<0.001). Same expression has then been applied over a 217 × 193 km area in Saskatchewan, Canada to obtain the ɛsun and thus GPPsun for the region during the growing season in 2008 (day 150 to day 260). The Vcmax for the region is inverted using the GPPsun and the result is validated at three flux sites inside the area. The results show that the approach is able to obtain good estimations of Vcmax values with R2 = 0.68 and RMSE = 8.8 μmol m-2 s-1.

  12. Consistent high clinical pregnancy rates and low ovarian hyperstimulation syndrome rates in high-risk patients after GnRH agonist triggering and modified luteal support

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iliodromiti, Stamatina; Blockeel, Christophe; Tremellen, Kelton P

    2013-01-01

    Are clinical pregnancy rates satisfactory and the incidence of OHSS low after GnRH agonist trigger and modified intensive luteal support in patients with a high risk of ovarian hyperstimulation syndrome (OHSS)?......Are clinical pregnancy rates satisfactory and the incidence of OHSS low after GnRH agonist trigger and modified intensive luteal support in patients with a high risk of ovarian hyperstimulation syndrome (OHSS)?...

  13. Polyphenols isolated from virgin coconut oil attenuate cadmium-induced dyslipidemia and oxidative stress due to their antioxidant properties and potential benefits on cardiovascular risk ratios in rats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Famurewa, Ademola Clement; Ejezie, Fidelis Ebele

    2018-01-01

    Literature has confirmed the pathogenic role of cadmium (Cd) and its exposure in the induction of dyslipidemia implicated in the development and increasing incidence of cardiovascular diseases. The current study explored whether polyphenolics isolated from virgin coconut oil (VCO) prevent Cd-induced dyslipidemia and investigate the underlying mechanism of action, in rats. Rats were pretreated with VCO polyphenols (10, 20 and 50 mg/kg body weight; orally) 2 weeks prior to concurrent Cd administration (5 mg/kg) for 5 weeks. Subsequently, serum concentrations of lipid and lipoprotein cholesterol and cardiovascular risk ratios were determined. Hepatic activities of superoxide dismutase (SOD) and catalase (CAT) as well as reduced glutathione (GSH) and malondialdehyde (MDA) contents were analyzed. Sub-chronic Cd administration significantly increased the serum levels of total cholesterol, triglycerides, low density lipoprotein cholesterol and very low density lipoprotein cholesterol while markedly reduced high density lipoprotein cholesterol. Hepatic activities of SOD and CAT as well as GSH content were suppressed by Cd, whereas MDA level was obviously increased. The co-administration of VCO polyphenol with Cd remarkably restored lipid profile and cardiovascular risk ratios and stabilized antioxidant defense systems comparable to control group. This is the first study presenting that polyphenols isolated from VCO prevent Cd-induced lipid abnormalities and cardiovascular risk ratios by improving antioxidant defense systems.

  14. Polyphenols isolated from virgin coconut oil attenuate cadmium-induced dyslipidemia and oxidative stress due to their antioxidant properties and potential benefits on cardiovascular risk ratios in rats

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ademola Clement Famurewa

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Objective: Literature has confirmed the pathogenic role of cadmium (Cd and its exposure in the induction of dyslipidemia implicated in the development and increasing incidence of cardiovascular diseases. The current study explored whether polyphenolics isolated from virgin coconut oil (VCO prevent Cd-induced dyslipidemia and investigate the underlying mechanism of action, in rats. Materials and Methods: Rats were pretreated with VCO polyphenols (10, 20 and 50 mg/kg body weight; orally 2 weeks prior to concurrent Cd administration (5 mg/kg for 5 weeks. Subsequently, serum concentrations of lipid and lipoprotein cholesterol and cardiovascular risk ratios were determined. Hepatic activities of superoxide dismutase (SOD and catalase (CAT as well as reduced glutathione (GSH and malondialdehyde (MDA contents were analyzed. Results: Sub-chronic Cd administration significantly increased the serum levels of total cholesterol, triglycerides, low density lipoprotein cholesterol and very low density lipoprotein cholesterol while markedly reduced high density lipoprotein cholesterol. Hepatic activities of SOD and CAT as well as GSH content were suppressed by Cd, whereas MDA level was obviously increased. The co-administration of VCO polyphenol with Cd remarkably restored lipid profile and cardiovascular risk ratios and stabilized antioxidant defense systems comparable to control group. Conclusion: This is the first study presenting that polyphenols isolated from VCO prevent Cd-induced lipid abnormalities and cardiovascular risk ratios by improving antioxidant defense systems.

  15. Modified Cut-Off Value of the Urine Protein-To-Creatinine Ratio Is Helpful for Identifying Patients at High Risk for Chronic Kidney Disease: Validation of the Revised Japanese Guideline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamamoto, Hiroyuki; Yamamoto, Kyoko; Yoshida, Katsumi; Shindoh, Chiyohiko; Takeda, Kyoko; Monden, Masami; Izumo, Hiroko; Niinuma, Hiroyuki; Nishi, Yutaro; Niwa, Koichiro; Komatsu, Yasuhiro

    2015-11-01

    Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a global public health issue, and strategies for its early detection and intervention are imperative. The latest Japanese CKD guideline recommends that patients without diabetes should be classified using the urine protein-to-creatinine ratio (PCR) instead of the urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR); however, no validation studies are available. This study aimed to validate the PCR-based CKD risk classification compared with the ACR-based classification and to explore more accurate classification methods. We analyzed two previously reported datasets that included diabetic and/or cardiovascular patients who were classified into early CKD stages. In total, 860 patients (131 diabetic patients and 729 cardiovascular patients, including 193 diabetic patients) were enrolled. We assessed the CKD risk classification of each patient according to the estimated glomerular filtration rate and the ACR-based or PCR-based classification. The use of the cut-off value recommended in the current guideline (PCR 0.15 g/g creatinine) resulted in risk misclassification rates of 26.0% and 16.6% for the two datasets. The misclassification was primarily caused by underestimation. Moderate to substantial agreement between each classification was achieved: Cohen's kappa, 0.56 (95% confidence interval, 0.45-0.69) and 0.72 (0.67-0.76) in each dataset, respectively. To improve the accuracy, we tested various candidate PCR cut-off values, showing that a PCR cut-off value of 0.08-0.10 g/g creatinine resulted in improvement in the misclassification rates and kappa values. Modification of the PCR cut-off value would improve its efficacy to identify high-risk populations who will benefit from early intervention.

  16. Association of the Waist-to-Height Ratio with Cardiovascular Risk Factors in Children and Adolescents: The Three Cities Heart Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robespierre C Ribeiro

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: To determine the best anthropometric index in relation tocardiovascular disease risk factors among children and adolescents.Methods: This cross-sectional school-based study was conductedamong a random sample of 3179 students, aged 6 to 18 years, in threelarge cities in Brazil.Results: The prevalence of overweight and obesity was 10% and 5%,respectively. In relation to the students in the lower quartile (Q1 of thedistribution of subscapular skinfold, the students in the upper quartile(Q4 presented a 2.0 times higher risk (odds ratio of having elevatedtotal cholesterol levels. Overweight and obese students had a 3.3 timeshigher risk of having elevated systolic blood pressure, and a 1.9 timeshigher risk of elevated diastolic blood pressure than other students.The less active students presented a 1.58 times higher risk of havingwaist-to-height ratio (WHtR above the upper tertile (Q3. WHtR meanvalues was 0.46 (SE 0.00 presented the largest area under the curve(AUC [0.613 (CI995%:0.578-0.647] for high total cholesterol levels,[0.546 (CI995%: 0.515-0.578] for low HDL-C levels, and [0.614(CI95%: 0.577-0.651] for high LDL-C levels, while body mass indexpresented the largest AUC [0.669 (CI95%: 0.64-0.699] for increaseddiastolic blood pressure followed by the waist circumference for increasedsystolic blood pressure [0.761 (CI95%: 0.735-0.787].Conclusions: WHtR is considered as a simple and accurate anthropometricparameter that identifies youth with cardiovascular risk factors.In this study, WHtR above 0.44 was indicative of risk factors inchildren and adolescents. These findings can be applied in future preventivestrategies against CVDs, and screening programs.

  17. Golden Ratio

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Our attraction to another body increases if the body is symmetricaland in proportion. If a face or a structure is in proportion,we are more likely to notice it and find it beautiful.The universal ratio of beauty is the 'Golden Ratio', found inmany structures. This ratio comes from Fibonacci numbers.In this article, we explore this ...

  18. Golden Ratio

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Keywords. Fibonacci numbers, golden ratio, Sanskrit prosody, solar panel. Abstract. Our attraction to another body increases if the body is symmetricaland in proportion. If a face or a structure is in proportion,we are more likely to notice it and find it beautiful.The universal ratio of beauty is the 'Golden Ratio', found inmany ...

  19. Golden Ratio

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Our attraction to another body increases if the body is sym- metrical and in proportion. If a face or a structure is in pro- portion, we are more likely to notice it and find it beautiful. The universal ratio of beauty is the 'Golden Ratio', found in many structures. This ratio comes from Fibonacci numbers. In this article, we explore this ...

  20. INFLUENCE OF THE ISOBUTENE METHANOL RATIO AND OF THE METHYL TERT-BUTYL ETHER CONTENT ON THE REACTION-RATE OF THE SYNTHESIS OF METHYL TERT-BUTYL ETHER

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    PANNEMAN, HJ; BEENACKERS, AACM

    1995-01-01

    The forward reaction rate constant of the MtBE synthesis was determined for different reaction mixture compositions. The forward rate constant decreases continuously with increasing isobutene/methanol ratio, while an increase in reaction rate constant is observed with an increasing amount of MtBE in

  1. Short-term versus long-term heart rate variability in ischemic cardiomyopathy risk stratification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreas eVoss

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available In industrialized countries with aging populations, heart failure affects 0.3%-2% of the general population. The investigation of 24h-ECG recordings revealed the potential of nonlinear indices of heart rate variability (HRV for enhanced risk stratification in patients with ischemic heart failure (IHF. However, long-term analyses are time-consuming, expensive and delay the initial diagnosis. The objective of this study was to investigate whether 30min short-term HRV analysis is sufficient for comparable risk stratification in IHF in comparison to 24h-HRV analysis. From 256 IHF patients (221 at low risk (IHFLR and 35 at high risk (IHFHR a 24h beat-to-beat time series b the first 30min segment c the 30min most stationary day segment and d the 30min most stationary night segment were investigated. We calculated linear (time and frequency domain and nonlinear HRV analysis indices. Optimal parameter sets for risk stratification in IHF were determined for 24 hours and for each 30min segment by applying discriminant analysis on significant clinical and non-clinical indices. Long- and short-term HRV indices from frequency domain and particularly from nonlinear dynamics revealed high univariate significances (p

  2. Analyse of the prevalence rate and risk factors of pulmonary embolism in the patients with dyspnea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cao Yanxia; Su Jian; Wang Bingsheng; Wu Songhong; Dai Ruiting; Cao Caixia

    2005-01-01

    Objective: To analyse the prevalence rate and risk factors of pulmonary embolism (PE) in patients with dyspnea and to explore the predisposing causes and its early clinical manifestations. Methods: Retrospective analysis was done in 461 patients with dyspnea performed 99 Tc m -macroaggregated albumin (MAA) lung perfusion imaging and 99 Tc m -DTPA ventilation imaging or 99 Tc m -MAA perfusion imaging and chest X-ray examination. Among them, 48 cases without apparent disease were considered as control group, whereas the remaining patients with other underlying illnesses as patients group. PEMS statistics software package was used for estimation of prevalence rate, χ 2 test and PE risk factor analysis. Results: There were 251 PE patients among 461 patients, the prevalence rate [ (π)=95% confidence interval (CI) ] was: lower extremity thrombosis and varicosity (80.79-95.47 ), post cesarean section (55.64-87.12), lower extremity bone surgery or fracture (52.76-87.27 ), cancer operation (52.19-78.19), atrial fibrillation or heart failure (53.30-74.88), obesity (23.14-50.20), post abdominal surgery (20.23-59.43), diabetes (19.12-63.95), chronic bronchitis (1.80-23.06), normal control group (3.47-22.66). Except chronic bronchitis, PE prevalence rate between patients group and control group had significant difference (P 99 Tc m -MAA and DTPA lung imaging should be done as early as possible. (authors)

  3. Modified Exponential (MOE) Models: statistical Models for Risk Estimation of Low dose Rate Radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ogata, H.; Furukawa, C.; Kawakami, Y.; Magae, J.

    2004-01-01

    Simultaneous inclusion of dose and dose-rate is required to evaluate the risk of long term irradiation at low dose-rates, since biological responses to radiation are complex processes that depend both on irradiation time and total dose. Consequently, it is necessary to consider a model including cumulative dose,dose-rate and irradiation time to estimate quantitative dose-response relationship on the biological response to radiation. In this study, we measured micronucleus formation and (3H) thymidine uptake in U2OS, human osteosarcoma cell line, as indicators of biological response to gamma radiation. Cells were exposed to gamma ray in irradiation room bearing 50,000 Ci 60Co. After irradiation, they were cultured for 24h in the presence of cytochalasin B to block cytokinesis, and cytoplasm and nucleus were stained with DAPI and propidium iodide. The number of binuclear cells bearing a micronucleus was counted under a florescence microscope. For proliferation inhibition, cells were cultured for 48 h after the irradiation and (3h) thymidine was pulsed for 4h before harvesting. We statistically analyzed the data for quantitative evaluation of radiation risk at low dose/dose-rate. (Author)

  4. Increased fracture rate in women with breast cancer: a review of the hidden risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Body Jean-Jacques

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Women with breast cancer, particularly individuals diagnosed at a relatively early age, have an increased incidence of fractures. Fractures can have serious clinical consequences including the need for major surgery, increased morbidity and mortality, increased cost of disease management, and reduced quality of life for patients. The primary cause of the increased fracture risk appears to be an accelerated decrease in bone mineral density (BMD resulting from the loss of estrogenic signaling that occurs with most treatments for breast cancer, including aromatase inhibitors. However, factors other than BMD levels alone may influence treatment decisions to reduce fracture risk in this setting. Our purpose is to review current evidence for BMD loss and fracture risk during treatment for breast cancer and discuss pharmacologic means to reduce this risk. Results Fracture risk during treatment for breast cancer may be influenced by the rate of BMD loss and the consequent rapid alterations in bone microarchitecture, in addition to the established fracture risk factors in postmenopausal osteoporosis. The rapid decrease in BMD during adjuvant chemoendocrine therapy for breast cancer may necessitate more aggressive pharmacotherapy than is indicated for healthy postmenopausal women who develop osteoporosis. Over the last few years, clinical trials have established the effectiveness of bisphosphonates and other antiresorptive agents to preserve BMD during adjuvant therapy for early breast cancer. In addition, some bisphosphonates (eg, zoledronic acid may also delay disease recurrence in women with hormone-responsive tumors, thereby providing an adjuvant benefit in addition to preserving BMD and potentially preventing fractures. Conclusions It is likely that a combined fracture risk assessment (eg, as in the WHO FRAX algorithm will more accurately identify both women with postmenopausal osteoporosis and women with breast cancer who require

  5. State infant mortality: an ecologic study to determine modifiable risks and adjusted infant mortality rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paul, David A; Mackley, Amy; Locke, Robert G; Stefano, John L; Kroelinger, Charlan

    2009-05-01

    To determine factors contributing to state infant mortality rates (IMR) and develop an adjusted IMR in the United States for 2001 and 2002. Ecologic study of factors contributing to state IMR. State IMR for 2001 and 2002 were obtained from the United States linked death and birth certificate data from the National Center for Health Statistics. Factors investigated using multivariable linear regression included state racial demographics, ethnicity, state population, median income, education, teen birth rate, proportion of obesity, smoking during pregnancy, diabetes, hypertension, cesarean delivery, prenatal care, health insurance, self-report of mental illness, and number of in-vitro fertilization procedures. Final risk adjusted IMR's were standardized and states were compared with the United States adjusted rates. Models for IMR in individual states in 2001 (r2 = 0.66, P < 0.01) and 2002 (r2 = 0.81, P < 0.01) were tested. African-American race, teen birth rate, and smoking during pregnancy remained independently associated with state infant mortality rates for 2001 and 2002. Ninety five percent confidence intervals (CI) were calculated around the regression lines to model the expected IMR. After adjustment, some states maintained a consistent IMR; for instance, Vermont and New Hampshire remained low, while Delaware and Louisiana remained high. However, other states such as Mississippi, which have traditionally high infant mortality rates, remained within the expected 95% CI for IMR after adjustment indicating confounding affected the initial unadjusted rates. Non-modifiable demographic variables, including the percentage of non-Hispanic African-American and Hispanic populations of the state are major factors contributing to individual variation in state IMR. Race and ethnicity may confound or modify the IMR in states that shifted inside or outside the 95% CI following adjustment. Other factors including smoking during pregnancy and teen birth rate, which are

  6. Rate of transformation and normal range about cardiac size and cardiothoracic ratio according to patient position and age at chest radiography of Korean adult man

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joo, Young Cheol [Dept. of Radiology, Samsung Medical Center, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Lim, Cheong Hwan; Jung, Hong Ryang [Dept. of Radiological Science, Hanseo University, Seosan (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Yun Min [Dept. of Radiotechnology, Wonkwang Health Science University, Iksan (Korea, Republic of); Hong, Dong Hee [Dept. of Radiological Science, Far East University, Eumseong (Korea, Republic of)

    2017-06-15

    Purpose of this study is present the normal range of cardiac size and cardiothoracic ratio according to patient position(chest PA and AP) and age of Korean adult male on digital chest X - ray, And to propose a mutually compatible conversion rate. 1,024 males were eligible for this study, among 1,300 normal chest patients who underwent chest PA and low-dose CT examinations on the same day at the 'S' Hospital Health Examination Center in Seoul From January to December 2014. CS and CTR were measured by Danzer (1919). The mean difference between CS and CTR was statistically significant (p<0.01) in Chest PA (CS 135.48 mm, CTR 43.99%) and Chest AP image (CS 155.96 mm, CTR 51.75%). There was no statistically significant difference between left and right heart in chest PA and AP images(p>0.05). CS showed statistically significant difference between Chest PA (p>0. 05) and Chest AP (p<0.05). The thorax size and CTR were statistically significant (p<0.01) in both age and chest PA and AP. Result of this study, On Chest AP image CS was magnified 15%, CTR was magnified 17% compare with Chest PA image. CS and CTR were about 10% difference by changing posture at all ages.

  7. Low-Dose-Rate Brachytherapy Versus Cryotherapy in Low- and Intermediate-Risk Prostate Cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gestaut, Matthew M; Cai, Wendi; Vyas, Shilpa; Patel, Belur J; Hasan, Salman A; MunozMaldonado, Yolanda; Deb, Niloyjyoti; Swanson, Gregory

    2017-05-01

    Cryotherapy and brachytherapy are definitive local treatment options for low- to intermediate-risk prostate cancer. There are both prospective and retrospective data for brachytherapy, but the use of cryotherapy has been limited primarily to single-institution retrospective studies. Currently, no published evidence has compared low-dose-rate brachytherapy versus cryotherapy. Institutional review board approval was obtained to conduct a retrospective chart review of consecutive patients treated at our institution from 1990 to 2012. For inclusion, patients must have received a prostate cancer diagnosis and have been considered to have low- to intermediate-risk disease according to the National Comprehensive Cancer Network criteria. All patients received brachytherapy or cryotherapy treatment. Disease specifics and failure details were collected for all patients. Failure was defined as prostate-specific antigen nadir +2 ng/mL. A total of 359 patients were analyzed. The groups comprised 50 low-risk cryotherapy (LRC), 92 intermediate-risk cryotherapy (IRC), 133 low-risk brachytherapy (LRB), and 84 intermediate-risk brachytherapy (IRB) patients. The median prostate-specific antigen follow-up periods were 85.6 months (LRC), 59.2 months (IRC), 74.9 months (LRB), and 59.8 months (IRB). The 5-year biochemical progression-free survival (bPFS) rate was 57.9% in the cryotherapy group versus 89.6% in the brachytherapy group (Pcryotherapy for low- and intermediate-risk groups (Pcryotherapy patients was -35°C (range, -96°C to -6°C). Cryotherapy used a median of 2 freeze-thaw cycles (range, 2-4 freeze-thaw cycles). Results from this study suggest that cryotherapy is inferior to brachytherapy for patients with low- to intermediate-risk prostate cancer. Patient selection criteria for consideration of cryotherapy and brachytherapy are similar in terms of anesthesia candidacy. Therefore, cryotherapy would not be recommended as a first-line local therapy for this particular

  8. The impact of realistic models of mass segregation on the event rate of extreme-mass ratio inspirals and cusp re-growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amaro-Seoane, Pau; Preto, Miguel

    2011-01-01

    One of the most interesting sources of gravitational waves (GWs) for LISA is the inspiral of compact objects on to a massive black hole (MBH), commonly referred to as an 'extreme-mass ratio inspiral' (EMRI). The small object, typically a stellar black hole, emits significant amounts of GW along each orbit in the detector bandwidth. The slowly, adiabatic inspiral of these sources will allow us to map spacetime around MBHs in detail, as well as to test our current conception of gravitation in the strong regime. The event rate of this kind of source has been addressed many times in the literature and the numbers reported fluctuate by orders of magnitude. On the other hand, recent observations of the Galactic centre revealed a dearth of giant stars inside the inner parsec relative to the numbers theoretically expected for a fully relaxed stellar cusp. The possibility of unrelaxed nuclei (or, equivalently, with no or only a very shallow cusp, or core) adds substantial uncertainty to the estimates. Having this timely question in mind, we run a significant number of direct-summation N-body simulations with up to half a million particles to calibrate a much faster orbit-averaged Fokker-Planck code. We show that, under quite generic initial conditions, the time required for the growth of a relaxed, mass segregated stellar cusp is shorter than a Hubble time for MBHs with M . ∼ 6 M o-dot (i.e. nuclei in the range of LISA). We then investigate the regime of strong mass segregation (SMS) for models with two different stellar mass components. Given the most recent stellar mass normalization for the inner parsec of the Galactic centre, SMS has the significant impact of boosting the EMRI rates by a factor of ∼10 in comparison to what would result from a 7/4-Bahcall and Wolf cusp resulting in ∼250 events per Gyr per Milky Way type galaxy. Such an intrinsic rate should translate roughly into ∼10 2 -7 x 10 2 sbh's (EMRIs detected by LISA over a mission lifetime of 2 or 5

  9. Reduction in acute myocardial infarction mortality in the United States: risk-standardized mortality rates from 1995-2006.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krumholz, Harlan M; Wang, Yun; Chen, Jersey; Drye, Elizabeth E; Spertus, John A; Ross, Joseph S; Curtis, Jeptha P; Nallamothu, Brahmajee K; Lichtman, Judith H; Havranek, Edward P; Masoudi, Frederick A; Radford, Martha J; Han, Lein F; Rapp, Michael T; Straube, Barry M; Normand, Sharon-Lise T

    2009-08-19

    During the last 2 decades, health care professional, consumer, and payer organizations have sought to improve outcomes for patients hospitalized with acute myocardial infarction (AMI). However, little has been reported about improvements in hospital short-term mortality rates or reductions in between-hospital variation in short-term mortality rates. To estimate hospital-level 30-day risk-standardized mortality rates (RSMRs) for patients discharged with AMI. Observational study using administrative data and a validated risk model to evaluate 3,195,672 discharges in 2,755,370 patients discharged from nonfederal acute care hospitals in the United States between January 1, 1995, and December 31, 2006. Patients were 65 years or older (mean, 78 years) and had at least a 12-month history of fee-for-service enrollment prior to the index hospitalization. Patients discharged alive within 1 day of an admission not against medical advice were excluded, because it is unlikely that these patients had sustained an AMI. Hospital-specific 30-day all-cause RSMR. At the patient level, the odds of dying within 30 days of admission if treated at a hospital 1 SD above the national average relative to that if treated at a hospital 1 SD below the national average were 1.63 (95% CI, 1.60-1.65) in 1995 and 1.56 (95% CI, 1.53-1.60) in 2006. In terms of hospital-specific RSMRs, a decrease from 18.8% in 1995 to 15.8% in 2006 was observed (odds ratio, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.75-0.77). A reduction in between-hospital heterogeneity in the RSMRs was also observed: the coefficient of variation decreased from 11.2% in 1995 to 10.8%, the interquartile range from 2.8% to 2.1%, and the between-hospital variance from 4.4% to 2.9%. Between 1995 and 2006, the risk-standardized hospital mortality rate for Medicare patients discharged with AMI showed a significant decrease, as did between-hospital variation.

  10. A real-time heat strain risk classifier using heart rate and skin temperature

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buller, Mark J; Latzka, William A; Yokota, Miyo; Tharion, William J; Moran, Daniel S

    2008-01-01

    Heat injury is a real concern to workers engaged in physically demanding tasks in high heat strain environments. Several real-time physiological monitoring systems exist that can provide indices of heat strain, e.g. physiological strain index (PSI), and provide alerts to medical personnel. However, these systems depend on core temperature measurement using expensive, ingestible thermometer pills. Seeking a better solution, we suggest the use of a model which can identify the probability that individuals are 'at risk' from heat injury using non-invasive measures. The intent is for the system to identify individuals who need monitoring more closely or who should apply heat strain mitigation strategies. We generated a model that can identify 'at risk' (PSI ≥ 7.5) workers from measures of heart rate and chest skin temperature. The model was built using data from six previously published exercise studies in which some subjects wore chemical protective equipment. The model has an overall classification error rate of 10% with one false negative error (2.7%), and outperforms an earlier model and a least squares regression model with classification errors of 21% and 14%, respectively. Additionally, the model allows the classification criteria to be adjusted based on the task and acceptable level of risk. We conclude that the model could be a valuable part of a multi-faceted heat strain management system. (note)

  11. Neural Network for Determining Risk Rate of Post-Heart Stroke Patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oldřich Trenz

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The ischemic heart disease presents an important health problem that affects a great part of the population and is the cause of one third of all deaths in the Czech Republic. The availability of data describing the patients’ prognosis enables their further analysis, with the aim of lowering the patients’ risk, by proposing optimum treatment. The main reason for creating the neural network model is not only to automate the process of establishing the risk rate of patients suffering from ischemic heart disease, but also to adapt it for practical use in clinical conditions. Our aim is to identify especially the specific group of risk-rate patients whose well-timed preventive care can improve the quality and prolong the length of their lives.The aim of the paper is to propose a patient-parameter structure, using which we could create a suitable model based on a self-taught neural network. The emphasis is placed on identifying key descriptive parameters (in the form of a reduction of the available descriptive parameters that are crucial for identifying the required patients, and simultaneously to achieve a portability of the model among individual clinical workplaces (availability of parameters.

  12. [Sports medical aspects in cardiac risk stratification--heart rate variability and exercise capacity].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banzer, W; Lucki, K; Bürklein, M; Rosenhagen, A; Vogt, L

    2006-12-01

    The present study investigates the association of the predicted CHD-risk (PROCAM) with the individual endurance capacity and heart rate variability (HRV) in a population-based sample of sedentary elderly. After stratification, in 57 men (48.1+/-9.5 yrs.) with an overall PROCAM-risk or =10% (50.8+/-5.6 points) cycle ergometries and short-term HRV analysis of time (RRMEAN, SDNN, RMSSD) and frequency domain parameters (LF, HF, TP, LF/HF) were conducted. Additionally the autonomic stress index (SI) was calculated. Nonparametric tests were used for statistical correlation analysis (Spearman rho) and group comparisons (Mann-Whitney). For endurance capacity [W/kg] (r=-0.469, pHRV analysis in risk stratification and outline the interrelation of a decreased exercise capacity and autonomic function with a raised individual 10-year cardiac risk. As an independent parameter of the vegetative regulatory state the stress index may contribute to an increased practical relevance of short-time HRV analysis.

  13. FACTORS THAT MAY DETERMINE THE RECOVERY RATE OF FINANCIAL RISK DAMAGES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicoleta Diana Rosioru

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available The information about the performance of a company, especially about its profitability, are useful to the consideration of potential changes of the economic resources, which the company might further control and the forecast of the ability to generate treasury flows by the existent resources. Also, based on the performance, judgments are expressed, aiming the efficiency whereof the company may use new resources. The performance of company may be influenced by its financial risk. The financial risk is defined as “variability of result indicators, under the incidence of financial structure of the company” . It is established by “the financing policy of the company, by equity or loans”. The financial risk results by the structure of the company shareholding or by the use method of financial instruments. The financial risks result by different sources, including changes of the interest rate, currency trades, expansions of lending operations, issuance of shares, as well as the use of derived financial instruments (IFD.

  14. Semiparametric accelerated failure time cure rate mixture models with competing risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Sangbum; Zhu, Liang; Huang, Xuelin

    2018-01-15

    Modern medical treatments have substantially improved survival rates for many chronic diseases and have generated considerable interest in developing cure fraction models for survival data with a non-ignorable cured proportion. Statistical analysis of such data may be further complicated by competing risks that involve multiple types of endpoints. Regression analysis of competing risks is typically undertaken via a proportional hazards model adapted on cause-specific hazard or subdistribution hazard. In this article, we propose an alternative approach that treats competing events as distinct outcomes in a mixture. We consider semiparametric accelerated failure time models for the cause-conditional survival function that are combined through a multinomial logistic model within the cure-mixture modeling framework. The cure-mixture approach to competing risks provides a means to determine the overall effect of a treatment and insights into how this treatment modifies the components of the mixture in the presence of a cure fraction. The regression and nonparametric parameters are estimated by a nonparametric kernel-based maximum likelihood estimation method. Variance estimation is achieved through resampling methods for the kernel-smoothed likelihood function. Simulation studies show that the procedures work well in practical settings. Application to a sarcoma study demonstrates the use of the proposed method for competing risk data with a cure fraction. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  15. Comparative evaluation of SUV, tumor-to-blood standard uptake ratio (SUR), and dual time point measurements for assessment of the metabolic uptake rate in FDG PET.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hofheinz, Frank; Hoff, Jörg van den; Steffen, Ingo G; Lougovski, Alexandr; Ego, Kilian; Amthauer, Holger; Apostolova, Ivayla

    2016-12-01

    We have demonstrated recently that the tumor-to-blood standard uptake ratio (SUR) is superior to tumor standardized uptake value (SUV) as a surrogate of the metabolic uptake rate K m of fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG), overcoming several of the known shortcomings of the SUV approach: excellent linear correlation of SUR and K m from Patlak analysis was found using dynamic imaging of liver metastases. However, due to the perfectly standardized uptake period used for SUR determination and the comparatively short uptake period, these results are not automatically valid and applicable for clinical whole-body examinations in which the uptake periods (T) are distinctly longer and can vary considerably. Therefore, the aim of this work was to investigate the correlation between SUR derived from clinical static whole-body scans and K m-surrogate derived from dual time point (DTP) measurements. DTP (18)F-FDG PET/CT was performed in 90 consecutive patients with histologically proven non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). In the PET images, the primary tumor was delineated with an adaptive threshold method. For determination of the blood SUV, an aorta region of interest (ROI) was delineated manually in the attenuation CT and transferred to the PET image. Blood SUV was computed as the mean value of the aorta ROI. SUR values were computed as ratio of tumor SUV and blood SUV. SUR values from the early time point of each DTP measurement were scan time corrected to 75 min postinjection (SURtc). As surrogate of K m, we used the SUR(T) slope, K slope, derived from DTP measurements since it is proportional to the latter under the given circumstances. The correlation of SUV and SURtc with K slope was investigated. The prognostic value of SUV, SURtc, and K slope for overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) was investigated with univariate Cox regression in a homogeneous subgroup (N=31) treated with primary chemoradiation. Correlation analysis revealed for both, SUV and SURtc, a

  16. Sex ratios

    OpenAIRE

    West, Stuart A; Reece, S E; Sheldon, Ben C

    2002-01-01

    Sex ratio theory attempts to explain variation at all levels (species, population, individual, brood) in the proportion of offspring that are male (the sex ratio). In many cases this work has been extremely successful, providing qualitative and even quantitative explanations of sex ratio variation. However, this is not always the situation, and one of the greatest remaining problems is explaining broad taxonomic patterns. Specifically, why do different organisms show so ...

  17. Effect of Contract Compliance Rate to a Fourth-Generation Telehealth Program on the Risk of Hospitalization in Patients With Chronic Kidney Disease: Retrospective Cohort Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hung, Chi-Sheng; Lee, Jenkuang; Chen, Ying-Hsien; Huang, Ching-Chang; Wu, Vin-Cent; Wu, Hui-Wen; Chuang, Pao-Yu; Ho, Yi-Lwun

    2018-01-24

    Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is prevalent in Taiwan and it is associated with high all-cause mortality. We have shown in a previous paper that a fourth-generation telehealth program is associated with lower all-cause mortality compared to usual care with a hazard ratio of 0.866 (95% CI 0.837-0.896). This study aimed to evaluate the effect of renal function status on hospitalization among patients receiving this program and to evaluate the relationship between contract compliance rate to the program and risk of hospitalization in patients with CKD. We retrospectively analyzed 715 patients receiving the telehealth care program. Contract compliance rate was defined as the percentage of days covered by the telehealth service before hospitalization. Patients were stratified into three groups according to renal function status: (1) normal renal function, (2) CKD, or (3) end-stage renal disease (ESRD) and on maintenance dialysis. The outcome measurements were first cardiovascular and all-cause hospitalizations. The association between contract compliance rate, renal function status, and hospitalization risk was analyzed with a Cox proportional hazards model with time-dependent covariates. The median follow-up duration was 694 days (IQR 338-1163). Contract compliance rate had a triphasic relationship with cardiovascular and all-cause hospitalizations. Patients with low or very high contract compliance rates were associated with a higher risk of hospitalization. Patients with CKD or ESRD were also associated with a higher risk of hospitalization. Moreover, we observed a significant interaction between the effects of renal function status and contract compliance rate on the risk of hospitalization: patients with ESRD, who were on dialysis, had an increased risk of hospitalization at a lower contract compliance rate, compared with patients with normal renal function or CKD. Our study showed that there was a triphasic relationship between contract compliance rate to the

  18. Role of Indian Commodity Derivatives Market in Hedging Price Risk: Estimation of Constant and Dynamic Hedge Ratio, and Hedging Effectiveness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brajesh Kumar

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available This  paper  examines  hedging  effectiveness  of  four  agricultural  (soybean,  corn,  castor seed and guar seed and seven non-agricultural (gold, silver, aluminium, copper, zinc, crude oil  and,  natural  gas  futures  contracts  traded  in  India,  using  VECM  and  CCC-MGARCH model to estimate constant hedge ratio and dynamic hedge ratios, respectively. We ind that agricultural  futures  contracts  provide  higher  hedging  effectiveness  (30-70%  as  compared to  non-agricultural  futures  (20%.  In  the  more  recent  period,  the  hedging  effectiveness  of Indian futures markets has increased. When hedging effectiveness of non-agricultural Indian futures  contracts  with  the  world  spot  markets  (NYMEX  and  LME  is  analyzed,  hedging effectiveness  increases  dramatically  which  indicates  the  fact  that  Indian  futures  contracts are more effective for hedging exposures to global prices. Other reasons of lower hedging effectiveness  of  Indian  futures  contracts  may  be  low  awareness  of  futures  markets  among participants,  high  transaction  costs  in  the  futures  markets,  policy  restrictions,  inadequate contract design, or high transaction costs in the spot market. These are, of course, expected birth pays for a nascent futures markets in an emerging economy. ";} // -->activate javascript

  19. THE MANAGEMENT OF CREDIT RISK ACCORDING TO INTERNAL RATINGS- BASED APPROACH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    BOLOCAN DRAGOS-MIHAIL

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available The internal ratings based approach (IRB Approach was created as part of Basel II replacing the original Basle Accord of 1988 (Basle I in an effort to create a better framework for regulating bank capital. This paper covers the methodology and components of the IRB Approach used to determine capital requirements for credit risk. Such an approach, which relies heavily upon a banks internal assessment of its counterparties and exposures, can secure two key objectives consistent with those which support the wider review of The New Basel Capital Accord.. IRB approach should promote safety and soundness in the financial system and, consistent with providing incentive compatibility, that the structure and requirements of the IRB approach do not impinge upon or undermine banks well-established lending and credit risk management practices

  20. International normalized ratio self-management lowers the risk of thromboembolic events after prosthetic heart valve replacement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eitz, Thomas; Schenk, Soren; Fritzsche, Dirk; Bairaktaris, Andreas; Wagner, Otto; Koertke, Heinrich; Koerfer, Reiner

    2008-03-01

    Although prosthetic valves are durable and easy to implant, the need for lifetime warfarin-based anticoagulation restricts their exclusive usage. We investigated if anticoagulation self-management improves outcome in a single-center series. Between 1994 and 1998, 765 patients with prosthetic valve replacements were prospectively enrolled and randomized to receive conventional anticoagulation management by their primary physician (group 1, n = 295) or to pursue anticoagulation self-management (group 2, n = 470). A study head office was implemented to coordinate and monitor anticoagulation protocols, international normalized ratios (INR), and adverse events. Patients were instructed on how to obtain and test their own blood samples and to adjust warfarin dosages according to the measured INR (target range, 2.5 to 4). Mean INR values were slightly yet significantly smaller in group 1 than in group 2 (2.8 +/- 0.7 vs 3.0 +/- .6, p events were similar in both groups. Time-related multivariate analysis identified INR self-management and higher INR as independent predictors for better outcome. Anticoagulation self-management can improve INR profiles up to 2 years after prosthetic valve replacement and reduce adverse events. Current indications of prosthetic rather than biologic valve implantations may be extended if the benefit of INR self-management is shown by future studies with longer follow-up.

  1. Qualitative and quantitative combined nonlinear dynamics model and its application in analysis of price, supply–demand ratio and selling rate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhu, Dingju

    2016-01-01

    The qualitative and quantitative combined nonlinear dynamics model proposed in this paper fill the gap in nonlinear dynamics model in terms of qualitative and quantitative combined methods, allowing the qualitative model and quantitative model to perfectly combine and overcome their weaknesses by learning from each other. These two types of models use their strengths to make up for the other’s deficiencies. The qualitative and quantitative combined models can surmount the weakness that the qualitative model cannot be applied and verified in a quantitative manner, and the high costs and long time of multiple construction as well as verification of the quantitative model. The combined model is more practical and efficient, which is of great significance for nonlinear dynamics. The qualitative and quantitative combined modeling and model analytical method raised in this paper is not only applied to nonlinear dynamics, but can be adopted and drawn on in the modeling and model analysis of other fields. Additionally, the analytical method of qualitative and quantitative combined nonlinear dynamics model proposed in this paper can satisfactorily resolve the problems with the price system’s existing nonlinear dynamics model analytical method. The three-dimensional dynamics model of price, supply–demand ratio and selling rate established in this paper make estimates about the best commodity prices using the model results, thereby providing a theoretical basis for the government’s macro-control of price. Meanwhile, this model also offer theoretical guidance to how to enhance people’s purchasing power and consumption levels through price regulation and hence to improve people’s living standards.

  2. Neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR) improves the risk assessment of ISS staging in newly diagnosed MM patients treated upfront with novel agents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romano, A; Parrinello, N L; Consoli, M L; Marchionni, L; Forte, S; Conticello, C; Pompa, A; Corso, A; Milone, G; Di Raimondo, F; Borrello, I

    2015-11-01

    Recent reports identify the ratio between absolute neutrophil count (ANC) and absolute lymphocyte count (ALC), called neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR), as a predictor of progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) in various malignancies. We retrospectively examined the NLR in a cohort of 309 newly diagnosed multiple myeloma (MM) patients treated upfront with novel agents. NLR was calculated using data obtained from the complete blood count (CBC) at diagnosis and subsequently correlated with PFS and OS. The median NLR was 1.9 (range 0.4-15.9). Higher NLR was independent of international staging system (ISS) stage, plasma cell infiltration or cytogenetics. The 5-year PFS and OS estimates were, respectively, 18.2 and 36.4 % for patients with NLR ≥ 2 versus 25.5 and 66.6 % in patients with NLR < 2. Among younger patients (age <65 years, N = 179), NLR ≥ 2 had a negative prognostic impact on both PFS and OS, in all ISS stages. By combining ISS stage and NLR in a model limited to young patients, we found that 19 % of the patients were classified as very low risk, 70 % standard risk and 11 % very high risk. The 5-year estimates were 39.3, 19.4 and 10.9 % for PFS and 95.8, 50.9 and 23.6 % for OS for very low, standard-risk and very high-risk groups. We found NLR to be a predictor of PFS and OS in MM patients treated upfront with novel agents. NLR can be combined with ISS staging system to identify patients with dismal outcome. However, larger cohorts and prospective studies are needed to use NLR as additional parameter to personalise MM therapy in the era of novel agents.

  3. Metabolic syndrome but not obesity measures are risk factors for accelerated age-related glomerular filtration rate decline in the general population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stefansson, Vidar T N; Schei, Jørgen; Solbu, Marit D; Jenssen, Trond G; Melsom, Toralf; Eriksen, Bjørn O

    2018-05-01

    Rapid age-related glomerular filtration rate (GFR) decline increases the risk of end-stage renal disease, and a low GFR increases the risk of mortality and cardiovascular disease. High body mass index and the metabolic syndrome are well-known risk factors for patients with advanced chronic kidney disease, but their role in accelerating age-related GFR decline independent of cardiovascular disease, hypertension and diabetes is not adequately understood. We studied body mass index, waist circumference, waist-hip ratio and metabolic syndrome as risk factors for accelerated GFR decline in 1261 middle-aged people representative of the general population without diabetes, cardiovascular disease or kidney disease. GFR was measured as iohexol clearance at baseline and repeated after a median of 5.6 years. Metabolic syndrome was defined as fulfilling three out of five criteria, based on waist circumference, blood pressure, glucose, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and triglycerides. The mean GFR decline rate was 0.95 ml/min/year. Neither the body mass index, waist circumference nor waist-hip ratio predicted statistically significant changes in age-related GFR decline, but individuals with baseline metabolic syndrome had a significant mean of 0.30 ml/min/year faster decline than individuals without metabolic syndrome in a multivariable adjusted linear regression model. This association was mainly driven by the triglyceride criterion of metabolic syndrome, which was associated with a significant 0.36 ml/min/year faster decline when analyzed separately. Results differed significantly when GFR was estimated using creatinine and/or cystatin C. Thus, metabolic syndrome, but not the body mass index, waist circumference or waist-hip ratio, is an independent risk factor for accelerated age-related GFR decline in the general population. Copyright © 2017 International Society of Nephrology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. The Combined therapy myo-inositol plus D-Chiro-inositol, in a physiological ratio, reduces the cardiovascular risk by improving the lipid profile in PCOS patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minozzi, M; Nordio, M; Pajalich, R

    2013-02-01

    Women with Polycystic Ovarian Syndrome (PCOS) present several factors that increase the cardiovascular risk, such as insulin resistance and dyslipidemia. Myo-inositol and D-chiro-inositol have been shown to improve insulin resistance, hyperandrogenism and to induce ovulation in PCOS women. However, their effects on dyslipidemia are less clear. The aim of the present study was to evaluate whether the combined therapy myo-inositol plus D-chiro-inositol (in a in a physiological ratio of 40:1) improve the metabolic profile, therefore, reducing cardiovascular risk in PCOS patients. Twenty obese PCOS patients [BMI 33.7 ± 6 kg/m2 (mean ± SD)] were recruited. The lipid profile was assessed by measuring total cholesterol, LDL, HDL and triglycerides before and after 6 months treatment with the combined therapy. Secondary end points included changes in BMI, waist-hip ratio, percentage of body fat, HOMA-IR and blood pressure. The combined therapy myo-inositol and D-chiro-inositol improved LDL levels (3.50 ± 0.8 mmol/L versus, 3 ± 1.2 mmol/L p PCOS women, therefore, reducing the cardiovascular risk.

  5. Perceptions of Equipoise, Risk-Benefit Ratios, and "Otherwise Healthy Volunteers" in the Context of Early-Phase HIV Cure Research in the United States: A Qualitative Inquiry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dubé, Karine; Dee, Lynda; Evans, David; Sylla, Laurie; Taylor, Jeff; Brown, Brandon; Miller, Veronica; Corneli, Amy; Skinner, Asheley; Greene, Sandra B; Tucker, Joseph D; Rennie, Stuart

    2018-02-01

    Early-phase HIV cure research is conducted against a background of highly effective antiretroviral therapy, and involves risky interventions in individuals who enjoy an almost normal life expectancy. To explore perceptions of three ethical topics in the context of HIV cure research-(a) equipoise, (b) risk-benefit ratios, and (c) "otherwise healthy volunteers"-we conducted 36 in-depth interviews (IDIs) with three groups of purposively selected key informants: clinician-researchers ( n = 11), policy-makers and bioethicists ( n = 13), and people living with HIV (PLWHIV; n = 12). Our analysis revealed variability in perceptions of equipoise. Second, most key informants believed there was no clear measure of risk-benefit ratios in HIV cure research, due in part to the complexity of weighing (sometimes unknown) risks to participants and (sometimes speculative) benefits to science and society. Third, most clinician-researchers and policy-makers/bioethicists viewed potential HIV cure study participants as "otherwise healthy volunteers," but this perception was not shared among PLWHIV in our study.

  6. Statistical properties of country risk ratings under oil price volatility: Evidence from selected oil-exporting countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, Chang; Sun, Xiaolei; Chen, Jianming; Li, Jianping

    2016-01-01

    This paper focuses on the application of panel models for identification and analysis of influence of oil price volatility on statistical properties of country risk ratings which stem from uncertainty of macroeconomic fluctuations. Firstly, two statistical properties of country risk ratings, volatility clustering and asymmetrical revision were identified in a theoretical framework based on Cruces (2006). Secondly, considering the oil price volatility, numerical experiments were conducted based on extended models to test and verify specific properties of country risk ratings in selected oil-exporting countries. Empirical results suggest that properties of country risk remain comparatively steady despite oil price volatility. It is also found that the oil price volatility can obviously exaggerate the country risk volatility, as it happened during 2007–2009. Country clustering based on the properties of country risk ratings shows that the selected countries maintain a significant clustering tendency. These features are of great importance for estimating risk exposure of international trade and investments in oil export during extreme situations. - Highlights: •Relationship between oil price volatility and country risk is the focus. •An extended model based on Cruces (2006) is proposed. •Volatility clustering and asymmetrical revision of country risk ratings is explored. •Oil price volatility can obviously exaggerate properties of country risk volatility.

  7. On Value at Risk for Foreign Exchange Rates --- the Copula Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaworski, P.

    2006-11-01

    The aim of this paper is to determine the Value at Risk (VaR) of the portfolio consisting of long positions in foreign currencies on an emerging market. Basing on empirical data we restrict ourselves to the case when the tail parts of distributions of logarithmic returns of these assets follow the power laws and the lower tail of associated copula C follows the power law of degree 1. We will illustrate the practical usefulness of this approach by the analysis of the exchange rates of EUR and CHF at the Polish forex market.

  8. Dependence and risk assessment for oil prices and exchange rate portfolios: A wavelet based approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aloui, Chaker; Jammazi, Rania

    2015-10-01

    In this article, we propose a wavelet-based approach to accommodate the stylized facts and complex structure of financial data, caused by frequent and abrupt changes of markets and noises. Specifically, we show how the combination of both continuous and discrete wavelet transforms with traditional financial models helps improve portfolio's market risk assessment. In the empirical stage, three wavelet-based models (wavelet-EGARCH with dynamic conditional correlations, wavelet-copula, and wavelet-extreme value) are considered and applied to crude oil price and US dollar exchange rate data. Our findings show that the wavelet-based approach provides an effective and powerful tool for detecting extreme moments and improving the accuracy of VaR and Expected Shortfall estimates of oil-exchange rate portfolios after noise is removed from the original data.

  9. NDT method in determining the rate of corrosion applicable to risk based inspection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mohamed Hairul Hasmoni; Mohamad Pauzi Ismail; Ab Razak Hamzah

    2004-01-01

    Corrosion is a major problem in oil and gas industries, refineries and chemical process plants as the equipment is often exposed to corrosive environments or elevated temperature. Important equipment need to operate safely and reliably to avoid injuries to personnel and the public, and to prevent loss time and cost incurred due to loss of production and shutdown. The paper assess the approach in evaluating the technique of non-destructive testing (NDT) using Ultrasonic Testing (UT) in determining the rate of corrosion and remaining life of equipment applicable to Risk Based Inspection (RBI). Methods in determining the corrosion rate are presented using analytical method. Examples and data from MINT chiller water pipeline are presented to illustrate the application of these methods. (Author)

  10. Risk factors for breast cancer in a population with high incidence rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wrensch, Margaret; Peskin-Mentzer, Roni; Quesenberry, Charles P Jr; Souders-Mason, Virginia; Spence, Linda; Suzuki, Marisa; Gould, Mary; Chew, Terri; Farren, Georgianna; Barlow, Janice; Belli, Flavia; Clarke, Christina; Erdmann, Christine A; Lee, Marion; Moghadassi, Michelle

    2003-01-01

    This report examines generally recognized breast cancer risk factors and years of residence in Marin County, California, an area with high breast cancer incidence and mortality rates. Eligible women who were residents of Marin County diagnosed with breast cancer in 1997–99 and women without breast cancer obtained through random digit dialing, frequency-matched by cases' age at diagnosis and ethnicity, participated in either full in-person or abbreviated telephone interviews. In multivariate analyses, 285 cases were statistically significantly more likely than 286 controls to report being premenopausal, never to have used birth control pills, a lower highest lifetime body mass index, four or more mammograms in 1990–94, beginning drinking after the age of 21, on average drinking two or more drinks per day, the highest quartile of pack-years of cigarette smoking and having been raised in an organized religion. Cases and controls did not significantly differ with regard to having a first-degree relative with breast cancer, a history of benign breast biopsy, previous radiation treatment, age at menarche, parity, use of hormone replacement therapy, age of first living in Marin County, or total years lived in Marin County. Results for several factors differed for women aged under 50 years or 50 years and over. Despite similar distributions of several known breast cancer risk factors, case-control differences in alcohol consumption suggest that risk in this high-risk population might be modifiable. Intensive study of this or other areas of similarly high incidence might reveal other important risk factors proximate to diagnosis

  11. Diagnostic performance of Body Mass Index, Waist Circumference and the Waist-to-Height Ratio for identifying cardiometabolic risk in Scottish pre-adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buchan, Duncan S; McLellan, Gillian; Donnelly, Samantha; Arthur, Rosie

    2017-06-01

    Limited studies have examined the diagnostic performance of body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC) or waist-to-height ratio (WHtR) for identifying cardiometabolic risk (increased clustered glucose, triglycerides, mean arterial pressure and inv-HDL-cholesterol) in pre-adolescent youth. To compare the utility of BMI, WC and WHtR as predictors of cardiometabolic risk (CMR) in Scottish pre-adolescent children. A cross-sectional analysis of 223 Scottish children (55.2% boys, mean age =8.4 years) was undertaken. BMI, WC and WHtR were used as exposure variables within multivariate logistic regression analysis and ROC analysis to examine the utility of these anthropometrical indices in identifying those at cardiometabolic risk. Individuals with an elevated WHtR, WC and BMI were 3.51 (95% CI = 1.71-7.23; p < .001); 2.34 (95% CI = 1.35-4.06; p = .002) and 2.59 (95% CI = 1.42-4.73; p = .002) times more likely to be at cardiometabolic risk, respectively. The areas under the curves [AUC] to identify children with cardiometabolic risk were significant and similar among anthropometric indices (AUC's = 0.60-0.65). When stratified by BMI, both WC and WHtR demonstrated a fair-to-good ability for identifying those at cardiometabolic risk (AUC = 0.75-0.81). Findings suggest that the combination of BMI with either WC or WHtR may provide an added benefit in the assessment of cardiometabolic risk amongst pre-adolescents.

  12. African American women and sexually transmitted infections: The contextual influence of unbalanced sex ratios and individual risk behaviors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oser, Carrie B; Pullen, Erin; Stevens-Watkins, Danelle; Perry, Brea L; Havens, Jennifer R; Staton-Tindall, Michele; Leukefeld, Carl G

    2017-10-01

    This study uses data from 564 African American women to examine the correlates of lifetime prevalence of a sexually transmitted infection (STI). Specifically, we test the effects of perceptions about the availability of African American males, five partner characteristics, and drug history. At the bivariate-level, women with an STI diagnosis were significantly more likely to have dated a man who was married, older, had sex with another man, involved in concurrent partnerships, and had been incarcerated. About half of the participants stated it was difficult to find an eligible African American male and attributed the limited pool of same-race partners to drug trafficking, a lack of monogamy, and high rates of incarceration. Multivariate analyses revealed having dated a man who had concurrent sexual partnerships or had been incarcerated, as well as drug use during sex were positively associated with ever having an STI. Individual and contextual implications are addressed.

  13. Platelet aggregation, eicosanoid production and thrombogenic ratio in individuals at high cardiovascular risk consuming meat enriched in walnut paste. A crossover, placebo-controlled study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Canales, Amaia; Bastida, Sara; Librelottto, Josana; Nus, Meritxell; Sánchez-Muniz, Francisco J; Benedi, Juana

    2009-07-01

    Walnut consumption produces beneficial cardiovascular effects. The aim of the present study is to compare the effects of meat enriched in walnut paste (WM) and low-fat meat (LM) consumptions on platelet aggregation, plasma thromboxane A2 (TXA2, measured as TXB2), prostacyclin I2 (PGI2, as 6-keto-PGF1alpha) and the thrombogenic ratio (TXB2/6-keto-PGF1alpha) in volunteers at high CVD risk. Twenty-two adults were placed on a random, non-blinded crossover study involving two test periods (five portions WM/week for 5 week; five portions LM/week for 5 week) separated by a 4- to 6-week washout period. The participants were asked to complete a diet record throughout the study. Platelet aggregation, plasma TXB2, 6-keto-PGF1alpha production and the TXB2/6-keto-PGF1alpha ratio were determined at baseline and at weeks 3 and 5 for the two dietary periods. The WM diet contains a lower SFA content, a higher concentration of PUFA and a more favourable n-6/n-3 ratio than the LM diet. Significant time x treatment interactions were observed for TXB2 (P = 0.048) and the TXB2/6-keto-PGF1alpha ratio (P = 0.028). The WM diet significantly increased the level of 6-keto-PGF1alpha (P = 0.037) and decreased the TXB2/6-keto-PGF1alpha ratio (P = 0.048). At week 5, significant differences (P keto-PGF1alpha ratio. The effects on TXB2 and the TXB2/6-keto-PGF1alpha ratio were time-course dependent (P = 0.019 and 0.011, respectively). The WM and LM diets reduced TXB2 levels most (P = 0.050) in obese individuals, while the TXB2/6-keto-PGF1alpha ratio decreased most (P = 0.066) in volunteers whose serum cholesterol levels were > or = 2200 mg/l. The WM diet should be considered a functional meat because it improves the thrombogenic status mainly in individuals with high-cholesterol levels or high BMI.

  14. Post-operative high dose rate brachytherapy in patients with low to intermediate risk endometrial cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pearcey, R.G.; Petereit, D.G.

    2000-01-01

    This paper investigates the outcome using different dose/fractionation schedules in high dose rate (HDR) post-operative vaginal vault radiotherapy in patients with low to intermediate risk endometrial cancer. The world literature was reviewed and thirteen series were analyzed representing 1800 cases. A total of 12 vaginal vault recurrences were identified representing an overall vaginal control rate of 99.3%. A wide range of dose fractionation schedules and techniques have been reported. In order to analyze a dose response relationship for tumor control and complications, the biologically effective doses to the tumor and late responding tissues were calculated using the linear quadratic model. A threshold was identified for complications, but not vaginal control. While dose fractionation schedules that delivered a biologically effective dose to the late responding tissues in excess of 100 Gy 3 (LQED = 60 Gy) predicted for late complications, dose fractionation schedules that delivered a modest dose to the vaginal surface (50 Gy 10 or LQED = 30 Gy) appeared tumoricidal with vaginal control rates of at least 98%. By using convenient, modest dose fractionation schedules, HDR vaginal vault - brachytherapy yields very high local control and extremely low morbidity rates. (author)

  15. Opium and bladder cancer: A systematic review and meta-analysis of the odds ratios for opium use and the risk of bladder cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Afshari, Mahdi; Janbabaei, Ghasem; Bahrami, Mohammad Amin; Moosazadeh, Mahmood

    2017-01-01

    The association between opium use and bladder cancer has been investigated in many studies, with varying reporting results reported. This study aims to estimate the total odds ratio for the association between bladder cancer and opium consumption using meta-analysis. The study was designed according to PRISMA guidelines. Two independent researchers searched for the relevant studies using PubMed, Web of Science, Scopus, OVID, Embase, and Google Scholar. After systematic screening of the studies identified during the first step, Cochrane risk of bias tool was determined for the selected studies. The case-control and the cohort studies were investigated to assess risk of bladder cancer due to opium use. In addition, the cross-sectional studies were analysed separately to assess frequency of opium consumption. These estimates were combined using the inverse variance method. Fixed or random effect models were applied to combine the point odds ratios. The heterogeneity between the primary results was assessed using the Cochran test and I-square index. The suspected factors for heterogeneity were investigated using meta-regression models. An Egger test was conducted to identify any probable publication bias. Forest plots illustrated the point and pooled estimates. All analyses were performed using Stata version 14 software and RevMan version 5.3. We included 17 primary studies (11 case-control, one cohort and five cross-sectional) in the final meta-analysis. The total odds ratios (95% confidence intervals) for developing bladder cancer by opium use alone, and concurrent use of opium and cigarettes were estimated as 3.85 (3.05-4.87) and 5.7 (1.9-16.3) respectively. The odds ratio (95% confidence interval) for opium use with or without cigarette smoking was estimated as 5.3 (3.6-7.7). This meta-analysis showed that opium use similar to cigarette smoking and maybe with similar mechanisms can be a risk factor for bladder cancer. It is therefore expected to be a risk factor

  16. Co-existence of COPD and bronchiectasis: a risk factor for a high ratio of main pulmonary artery to aorta diameter (PA:A from computed tomography in COPD patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dou S

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Shuang Dou,1 Chunyan Zheng,1 Xiuli Ji,2 Wei Wang,1 Mengshuang Xie,1 Liwei Cui,1 Wei Xiao1 1Department of Pulmonary Medicine, Qilu Hospital, Shandong University, Jinan, People’s Republic of China; 2Department of Pulmonary Disease, Jinan Traditional Chinese Medicine Hospital, Jinan, People’s Republic of China Background: Pulmonary vascular disease, especially pulmonary hypertension, is an important complication of COPD. Bronchiectasis is considered not only a comorbidity of COPD, but also a risk factor for vascular diseases. The main pulmonary artery to aorta diameter ratio (PA:A ratio has been found to be a reliable indicator of pulmonary vascular disease. It is hypothesized that the co-existence of COPD and bronchiectasis may be associated with relative pulmonary artery enlargement (PA:A ratio >1.Methods: This retrospective study enrolled COPD patients from 2012 through 2016. Demographic and clinical data were collected. Bhalla score was used to determine the severity of bronchiectasis. Patient characteristics were analyzed in two ways: the high (PA:A >1 and low (PA:A ≤1 ratio groups; and COPD with and without bronchiectasis groups. Logistic regression analysis was used to assess risk factors for high PA:A ratios.Results: In this study, 480 COPD patients were included, of whom 168 had radiographic bronchiectasis. Patients with pulmonary artery enlargement presented with poorer nutrition (albumin, 35.6±5.1 vs 38.3±4.9, P<0.001, lower oxygen partial pressure (74.4±34.5 vs 81.3±25.4, P<0.001, more severe airflow obstruction (FEV1.0, 0.9±0.5 vs 1.1±0.6, P=0.004, and a higher frequency of bronchiectasis (60% vs 28.8%, P<0.001 than patients in the low ratio group. Patients with both COPD and bronchiectasis had higher levels of systemic inflammation (erythrocyte sedimentation rate, P<0.001 and fibrinogen, P=0.006 and PA:A ratios (P<0.001. A higher PA:A ratio was significantly closely correlated with a higher Bhalla score (r=0.412, P<0

  17. Rates and risk factors of unplanned 30-day readmission following general and thoracic pediatric surgical procedures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polites, Stephanie F; Potter, Donald D; Glasgow, Amy E; Klinkner, Denise B; Moir, Christopher R; Ishitani, Michael B; Habermann, Elizabeth B

    2017-08-01

    Postoperative unplanned readmissions are costly and decrease patient satisfaction; however, little is known about this complication in pediatric surgery. The purpose of this study was to determine rates and predictors of unplanned readmission in a multi-institutional cohort of pediatric surgical patients. Unplanned 30-day readmissions following general and thoracic surgical procedures in children readmission per 30 person-days were determined to account for varied postoperative length of stay (pLOS). Patients were randomly divided into 70% derivation and 30% validation cohorts which were used for creation and validation of a risk model for readmission. Readmission occurred in 1948 (3.6%) of 54,870 children for a rate of 4.3% per 30 person-days. Adjusted predictors of readmission included hepatobiliary procedures, increased wound class, operative duration, complications, and pLOS. The predictive model discriminated well in the derivation and validation cohorts (AUROC 0.710 and 0.701) with good calibration between observed and expected readmission events in both cohorts (p>.05). Unplanned readmission occurs less frequently in pediatric surgery than what is described in adults, calling into question its use as a quality indicator in this population. Factors that predict readmission including type of procedure, complications, and pLOS can be used to identify at-risk children and develop prevention strategies. III. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Longitudinal dating violence victimization among Latino teens: Rates, risk factors, and cultural influences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabina, Chiara; Cuevas, Carlos A; Cotignola-Pickens, Heather M

    2016-02-01

    This study uses data from two waves of the Dating Violence Among Latino Adolescents (DAVILA) study and focuses on the 1) rates of dating violence victimization by gender, 2) risk of experiencing dating violence victimization over time, 3) association of dating violence victimization with other forms of victimization, and 4) association of immigrant status, acculturation, and familial support with dating violence victimization over time. A total of 547 Latino adolescents, from across the USA, aged 12-18 at Wave 1 participated in both waves of the study. Rates of dating violence were around 19% across waves. Dating violence at Wave 1 and non-dating violence victimization were associated with an elevated risk of dating violence during Wave 2. Cultural factors did not distinguish between dating violence trajectories, except for immigrant status and familial support being associated with no dating violence victimization. Overall, dating violence affects a large number of Latino teens and tends to continue over time. Copyright © 2015 The Foundation for Professionals in Services for Adolescents. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Effects of stochastic interest rates in decision making under risk: A Markov decision process model for forest management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mo Zhou; Joseph Buongiorno

    2011-01-01

    Most economic studies of forest decision making under risk assume a fixed interest rate. This paper investigated some implications of this stochastic nature of interest rates. Markov decision process (MDP) models, used previously to integrate stochastic stand growth and prices, can be extended to include variable interest rates as well. This method was applied to...

  20. Teaching Exchange Rate Risk Using London's Gherkin Building: How Investors Were in (and out of) a Pickle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Adam T.; Sackley, William H.; Watson, Ethan D.

    2017-01-01

    In this teaching note, the authors use an iconic London building, the Gherkin, as a motivation to understand exchange rates, cross exchange rates, and unhedged exchange rate risk. The famous tower was constructed in the early 2000s by Swiss Re, an insurance company, and then sold to investors as part of a sale-leaseback deal in early 2007.…

  1. Association of the waist-to-height ratio with cardiovascular risk factors in children and adolescents: The three cities heart study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robespierre C Ribeiro

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: To determine the best anthropometric index in rela-tion to cardiovascular disease risk factors among children and adolescents. Methods: This cross-sectional school-based study was conducted among a random sample of 3179 students, aged 6 to 18 years, in three large cities in Brazil. Results: The prevalence of overweight and obesity was 10% and 5%, respectively. In relation to the students in the lower quartile (Q1 of the distribution of subscapular skinfold, the students in the upper quartile (Q4 presented a 2.0 times higher risk (odds ratio of having elevated total cholesterol levels. Overweight and obese students had a 3.3 times higher risk of having elevated sys-tolic blood pressure, and a 1.9 times higher risk of elevated diastolic blood pressure than other students. The less active students presented a 1.58 times higher risk of having waist-to-height ratio (WHtR above the upper tertile (Q3. WHtR mean values was 0.46 (SE 0.00 presented the largest area under the curve (AUC [0.613 (CI995%:0.578-0.647] for high total cholesterol levels, [0.546 (CI995%: 0.515-0.578] for low HDL-C levels, and [0.614 (CI95%: 0.577-0.651] for high LDL-C levels, while body mass index presented the largest AUC [0.669 (CI95%: 0.64-0.699] for increased diastolic blood pressure followed by the waist circum-ference for increased systolic blood pressure [0.761 (CI95%: 0.735-0.787]. Conclusions: WHtR is considered as a simple and accurate anthropometric parameter that identifies youth with cardiovascular risk factors. In this study, WHtR above 0.44 was indicative of risk factors in children and adolescents. These findings can be applied in future preventive strategies against CVDs, and screening pro-grams.

  2. INCLUDING INTANGIBLE ASSETS IN RATES TO ESTIMATE THE RISK OF BANKRUPTCY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eugenia IANCU

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to show that an economic entity’s intangible assets play an important role in predicting the risk of bankruptcy of the company and at the same time in its evolution. Based on benchmarking and on appeal to the experience and intuition of available human expert it can be shaped a credible model and, based on this model can be projected the future course of a business organization. Among other issues, we note that the intangible assets of a company can and should be entered into the equation for estimating the risk of bankruptcy whether it avails or not to artificial intelligence (AI techniques to solve this problem (values lead to bankruptcy and the graphics functions differ majorly when the analysis includes the Rhine rate which takes into account intangibles of firms. From the structure of the paper we can see that whatever the type of model used in predicting the risk of bankruptcy at either classic or using artificial intelligence techniques (AI a leading role in the evolution and the value of the company represents intangible.

  3. Observer-rated depression in long-term care: frequency and risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCusker, Jane; Cole, Martin G; Voyer, Philippe; Monette, Johanne; Champoux, Nathalie; Ciampi, Antonio; Vu, Minh; Dyachenko, Alina; Belzile, Eric

    2014-01-01

    The objectives of this study were: (1) to describe the prevalence and 6-month incidence of observer-rated depression in residents age 65 and over of long-term care (LTC) facilities; (2) to describe risk factors for depression, at baseline and over time. A multisite, prospective observational study was conducted in residents aged 65 and over of 7 LTC facilities. The Cornell Scale for Depression in Dementia (CSDD) was completed by nurses monthly for 6 months. We measured demographic, medical, and functional factors at baseline and monthly intervals, using data from research assessments, nurse interviews, and chart reviews. 274 residents were recruited and completed baseline depression assessments. The prevalence of depression (CSDD score of 6+) was 19.0%. The incidence of depression among those without prevalent depression was 73.3 per 100 person-years. A delirium diagnosis, pain, and diabetes were independently associated with prevalent depression. CSDD score at baseline and development of severe cognitive impairment at follow-up were independent risk factors for incident depression. A diagnosis of delirium and uncorrected visual impairment at follow-up occurred concurrently with incident depression. The results of this study have implications for the detection and prevention of depression in LTC. Delirium diagnosis, pain and diabetes at baseline were associated with prevalent depression; depression symptoms at baseline and development of severe cognitive impairment at follow-up were risk factors for incident depression. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Attenuated Heart Rate Recovery After Exercise Testing and Risk of Incident Hypertension in Men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jae, Sae Young; Bunsawat, Kanokwan; Fadel, Paul J; Fernhall, Bo; Choi, Yoon-Ho; Park, Jeong Bae; Franklin, Barry A

    2016-09-01

    Although attenuated heart rate recovery (HRR) and reduced heart rate (HR) reserve to maximal exercise testing are associated with adverse cardiovascular outcomes, their relation to incident hypertension in healthy normotensive populations is unclear. We examined the hypothesis that both attenuated HRR and reduced HR reserve to exercise testing are associated with incident hypertension in men. A total of 1,855 participants were selected comprising of healthy, initially normotensive men who underwent peak or symptom-limited treadmill testing at baseline. HRR was calculated as the difference between peak HR during exercise testing and the HR at 2 minutes after exercise cessation. HR reserve was calculated as the percentage of HR reserve (peak HR - resting HR)/(220 - age - resting HR) × 100. During an average 4-year follow-up, 179 (9.6%) men developed hypertension. Incident hypertension was associated with HRR quartiles (Q1 (57 bpm) 8.3%; P = 0.05 for trend). The relative risk (RR) of the incident hypertension in the slowest HRR quartile vs. the fastest HRR quartile was 1.78 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.14-2.78) after adjustment for confounders. Every 1 bpm increment in HRR was associated with a 2% (RR 0.98, 95% CI: 0.97-0.99) lower risk of incident hypertension after adjusting for potential confounders. In contrast, reduced HR reserve did not predict the risk of incident hypertension. Slow HRR after exercise testing is independently associated with the development of hypertension in healthy normotensive men. © American Journal of Hypertension, Ltd 2016. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  5. Rates of fetal polydrug exposures in methadone-maintained pregnancies from a high-risk population.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kaitlyn Delano

    Full Text Available Methadone maintenance treatment (MMT is the standard of care during pregnancy for opioid-dependency, showing efficacy in improving prenatal care and reducing risk of relapse. By design, however, MMT is only intended to prevent withdrawal thus facilitating cognitive behavioural interventions. In order to maximize the benefits of MMT, it is essential that methadone is both properly prescribed and that additional addiction treatment is concurrently administered. This study aims to determine the effectiveness of MMT engagement in high-risk pregnant women in reducing polydrug use by objective laboratory examination of neonatal meconium.Over a 29-month period, the Motherisk Laboratory at the Hospital for Sick Children in Toronto analyzed meconium samples as per request by social services and hospitals for drugs of abuse.Of the 904 meconium samples received, 273 were tested for methadone with 164 positive and 109 negative for methadone. Almost half of the methadone positive samples (46.34% were also positive for at least one other opioid compound, which did not differ statistically from the methadone-negative control samples (46.79%; Chi square test, p=0.94. No differences were found between the methadone positive and negative groups in rates of concurrent amphetamines, cocaine, cannabis, and alcohol use indicating a similar risk of polydrug use between pregnant women taking or not taking methadone in this population.The high rates of additional opioid and other drug use in the MMT group, suggest that MMT is failing this population of patients. It is possible that methadone doses during pregnancy are not appropriately adjusted for changes in pharmacokinetic parameters (e.g. blood volume, renal function during the second and third trimesters. This may result in sub-therapeutic dosing creating withdrawal symptoms leading to additional substance use. Alternatively, these results may be demonstrating a substantial lack in delivery of addiction support

  6. Risk Stratification of Acute Kidney Injury Using the Blood Urea Nitrogen/Creatinine Ratio in Patients With Acute Decompensated Heart Failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takaya, Yoichi; Yoshihara, Fumiki; Yokoyama, Hiroyuki; Kanzaki, Hideaki; Kitakaze, Masafumi; Goto, Yoichi; Anzai, Toshihisa; Yasuda, Satoshi; Ogawa, Hisao; Kawano, Yuhei

    2015-01-01

    Risk stratification of acute kidney injury (AKI) is important for acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF). The aim of this study was to determine whether clinical markers, such as the blood urea nitrogen/creatinine ratio (BUN/Cr) or BUN or creatinine values alone, stratify the risk of AKI for mortality. In all, 371 consecutive ADHF patients were enrolled in the study. AKI was defined as serum creatinine ≥0.3 mg/dl or a 1.5-fold increase in serum creatinine levels within 48 h. During ADHF therapy, AKI occurred in 99 patients; 55 patients died during the 12-month follow-up period. Grouping patients according to AKI and a median BUN/Cr at admission of 22.1 (non-AKI+low BUN/Cr, non-AKI+high BUN/Cr, AKI+low BUN/Cr, and AKI+high BUN/Cr groups) revealed higher mortality in the AKI+high BUN/Cr group (log-rank test, Phigh BUN/Cr and mortality, whereas the association with AKI+low BUN/Cr did not reach statistical significance. When patients were grouped according to AKI and median BUN or creatinine values at admission, AKI was associated with mortality, regardless of BUN or creatinine. The combination of AKI and elevated BUN/Cr, but not BUN or creatinine individually, is linked with an increased risk of mortality in ADHF patients, suggesting that the BUN/Cr is useful for risk stratification of AKI.

  7. Rates and risks for prolonged grief disorder in a sample of orphaned and widowed genocide survivors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaal, Susanne; Jacob, Nadja; Dusingizemungu, Jean-Pierre; Elbert, Thomas

    2010-07-06

    The concept of Prolonged Grief Disorder (PGD) has been defined in recent years by Prigerson and co-workers, who have developed and empirically tested consensus and diagnostic criteria for PGD. Using these most recent criteria defining PGD, the aim of this study was to determine rates of and risks for PGD in survivors of the 1994 Rwandan genocide who had lost a parent and/or the husband before, during or after the 1994 events. The PG-13 was administered to 206 orphans or half orphans and to 194 widows. A regression analysis was carried out to examine risk factors of PGD. 8.0% (n = 32) of the sample met criteria for PGD with an average of 12 years post-loss. All but one person had faced multiple losses and the majority indicated that their grief-related loss was due to violent death (70%). Grief was predicted mainly by time since the loss, by the violent nature of the loss, the severity of symptoms of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and the importance given to religious/spiritual beliefs. By contrast, gender, age at the time of bereavement, bereavement status (widow versus orphan), the number of different types of losses reported and participation in the funeral ceremony did not impact the severity of prolonged grief reactions. A significant portion of the interviewed sample continues to experience grief over interpersonal losses and unresolved grief may endure over time if not addressed by clinical intervention. Severity of grief reactions may be associated with a set of distinct risk factors. Subjects who lose someone through violent death seem to be at special risk as they have to deal with the loss experience as such and the traumatic aspects of the loss. Symptoms of PTSD may hinder the completion of the mourning process. Religious beliefs may facilitate the mourning process and help to find meaning in the loss. These aspects need to be considered in the treatment of PGD.

  8. Self-rated health among Greenlandic Inuit and Norwegian Sami adolescents: associated risk and protective correlates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spein, Anna Rita; Pedersen, Cecilia Petrine; Silviken, Anne Cathrine; Melhus, Marita; Kvernmo, Siv Eli; Bjerregaard, Peter

    2013-01-01

    Self-rated health (SRH) and associated risk and protective correlates were investigated among two indigenous adolescent populations, Greenlandic Inuit and Norwegian Sami. Cross-sectional data were collected from "Well-being among Youth in Greenland" (WBYG) and "The Norwegian Arctic Adolescent Health Study" (NAAHS), conducted during 2003-2005 and comprising 10th and 11th graders, 378 Inuit and 350 Sami. SRH was assessed by one single item, using a 4-point and 5-point scale for NAAHS and WBYG, respectively. Logistic regressions were performed separately for each indigenous group using a dichotomous measure with "very good" (NAAHS) and "very good/good" (WBYG) as reference categories. We simultaneously controlled for various socio-demographics, risk correlates (drinking, smoking, violence and suicidal behaviour) and protective correlates (physical activity, well-being in school, number of close friends and adolescent-parent relationship). A majority of both Inuit (62%) and Sami (89%) youth reported "good" or "very good" SRH. The proportion of "poor/fair/not so good" SRH was three times higher among Inuit than Sami (38% vs. 11%, p≤0.001). Significantly more Inuit females than males reported "poor/fair" SRH (44% vs. 29%, p≤0.05), while no gender differences occurred among Sami (12% vs. 9%, p≤0.08). In both indigenous groups, suicidal thoughts (risk) and physical activity (protective) were associated with poor and good SRH, respectively. In accordance with other studies of indigenous adolescents, suicidal thoughts were strongly associated with poorer SRH among Sami and Inuit. The Inuit-Sami differences in SRH could partly be due to higher "risk" and lower "protective" correlates among Inuit than Sami. The positive impact of physical activity on SRH needs to be targeted in future intervention programs.

  9. Coronary artery bypass graft readmission rates and risk factors - A retrospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, T Robert; White, Robert S; Gaber-Baylis, Licia K; Turnbull, Zachary A; Rong, Lisa Q

    2018-04-17

    Hospital readmissions contribute substantially to the overall healthcare cost. Coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) is of particular interest due to its relatively high short-term readmission rates and mean hospital charges. A retrospective review was performed on 2007-2011 data from California, Florida, and New York from the State Inpatient Databases, Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project. All patients ≥18 years of age who underwent isolated CABG and met inclusion/exclusion criteria were included. Insurance status was categorized by Medicaid, Medicare, Private Insurance, Uninsured, and Other. Primary outcomes were unadjusted rates and adjusted odds of readmission at 30- and 90-days. Secondary outcomes included diagnosis at readmission. A total of 177,229 were included in the analyses after assessing for exclusion criteria. Overall 30-day readmission rate was 16.1%; rates were highest within Medicare (18.4%) and Medicaid (20.2%) groups and lowest in the private insurance group (11.7%; p readmission diagnoses were atrial fibrillation (26.7%), pleural effusion (22.5%), and wound infection (17.7%). Medicare patients had the highest proportion of readmissions with atrial fibrillation (31.7%) and pleural effusions (23.3%), while Medicaid patients had the highest proportion of readmissions with wound infections (21.8%). Similar results were found at 90 days. Risk factors for readmission included non-private insurance, age, female sex, non-white race, low median household income, non-routine discharge, length of stay, and certain comorbidities and complications. CABG readmission rates remain high and are associated with insurance status and racial and socioeconomic markers. Further investigation is necessary to better delineate the underlying factors that relate racial and socioeconomic disparities to CABG readmissions. Understanding these factors will be key to improving healthcare outcomes and expenditure. Copyright © 2018 IJS Publishing Group Ltd. Published by

  10. Risk of inflammatory bowel disease according to self-rated health, pregnancy course, and pregnancy complications: a study within the Danish National Birth Cohort.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria C Harpsøe

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Poor self-rated health (SRH has been connected to immunological changes, and pregnancy complications have been suggested in the etiology of autoimmune diseases including inflammatory bowel disease (IBD. We evaluated the impact of self-rated pre-pregnancy health and pregnancy course, hyperemesis, gestational hypertension, and preeclampsia on risk of IBD. METHODS: Information was collected by questionnaires from The Danish National Birth Cohort (enrolment 1996-2002 at 16(th and 30(th week of pregnancy and 6 months postpartum. A total of 55,699 women were followed from childbirth until development of IBD (using validated National Hospital Discharge Register diagnoses, emigration, death, or end of follow-up, 31(st of October, 2011. Hazard ratios (HR with 95% confidence intervals (CI were calculated using Cox proportional hazards models adjusting for age and evaluating pre-pregnancy BMI, parity, alcohol and tobacco consumption, and socio-occupational status as potential confounders. RESULTS: Risk of IBD increased with decreasing level of self-rated pre-pregnancy health (p = 0.002 and was elevated in women with poor self-rated pregnancy course (HR, 1.61, 95% CI 1.22-2.12. Associations persisted for more than 5 years postpartum. Hyperemesis and preeclampsia were not significantly associated with risk of IBD. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first prospective observational study to suggest that poor self-rated health--in general and in relation to pregnancy--is associated with increased risk of IBD even in the long term though results needs further confirmation. Symptoms of specific pregnancy complications were, on the other hand, not significantly associated with risk of IBD.

  11. Pregnancy risk assessment monitoring system in Ireland: methods and response rates

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    O’Keeffe, Linda M.

    2014-06-01

    To describe response rates and characteristics associated with response to the Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System study in Ireland (PRAMS Ireland). Using hospital discharge records of live births at a large, urban, obstetric hospital, a sampling frame of approximately 2,400 mother-infant pairs were used to alternately sample 1,200 women. Mothers’ information including name, address, parity, age and infant characteristics such as sex and gestational age at delivery were extracted from records. Modes of contact included an invitation letter with option to opt out of the study, three mail surveys, a reminder letter and text message reminder for remaining non-respondents. Sixty-one per cent of women responded to the PRAMS Ireland survey over a 133 day response period. Women aged <30, single women, multiparous women and women with a preterm delivery were less likely to respond. Women participating in PRAMS Ireland were similar to the national birth profile in 2011 which had a mean age of 32, were 40 % primiparous, 33 % single or never married and had a 28 % caesarean section rate. Survey and protocol changes are required to increase response rates above recommended Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) thresholds of 65 % within the recommended 90 day data collection cycle. Additional efforts such as stratification and over-sampling are required to increase representativeness among hard to reach groups such as younger, single and multiparous women before expanding the project to an ongoing, national surveillance system in Ireland.

  12. Water requirements and drinking rates of homing pigeons: A consideration for exposure risk of migratory birds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perez, Cristina R; Moye, John K; Pritsos, Chris A

    2017-09-01

    Access to water along a bird's migratory flyway is essential during the vital process of migration. Because of the scarcity of water in some environments, there is potential for migratory birds to encounter and drink from contaminated bodies of water. Ingestion of contaminated water may cause injury and compromise flying ability, leading to a disruption of migration. To determine injury to birds from potential exposure, it is essential to know not only the concentration of a given contaminant in the water but also the quantity and rate of water consumption by the birds. Homing pigeons (Columba livia) were used in a series of experiments to determine differences in drinking behavior after various flights and after periods of resting. Results from the present study demonstrate that homing pigeons' water consumption is dramatically different when assessed according to activity, flight distance, and time elapsed after flight. This suggests that the drinking rates of birds during migration are extremely important and much greater than estimated using traditional exposure assessment procedures. Thus, exposure to contaminants via drinking water may be greatly underestimated, and the rate of water consumption should be considered when estimating potential exposure risk to avian species. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2017;13:870-876. © 2017 SETAC. © 2017 SETAC.

  13. Has the athlete trained enough to return to play safely? The acute:chronic workload ratio permits clinicians to quantify a player's risk of subsequent injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blanch, Peter; Gabbett, Tim J

    2016-04-01

    The return to sport from injury is a difficult multifactorial decision, and risk of reinjury is an important component. Most protocols for ascertaining the return to play status involve assessment of the healing status of the original injury and functional tests which have little proven predictive ability. Little attention has been paid to ascertaining whether an athlete has completed sufficient training to be prepared for competition. Recently, we have completed a series of studies in cricket, rugby league and Australian rules football that have shown that when an athlete's training and playing load for a given week (acute load) spikes above what they have been doing on average over the past 4 weeks (chronic load), they are more likely to be injured. This spike in the acute:chronic workload ratio may be from an unusual week or an ebbing of the athlete's training load over a period of time as in recuperation from injury. Our findings demonstrate a strong predictive (R(2)=0.53) polynomial relationship between acute:chronic workload ratio and injury likelihood. In the elite team setting, it is possible to quantify the loads we are expecting athletes to endure when returning to sport, so assessment of the acute:chronic workload ratio should be included in the return to play decision-making process. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

  14. Penilaian Tingkat Kesehatan Bank Dengan Menggunakan Pendekatan Risiko (Risk-Based Bank Rating

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Masnawati .

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available This  study  aimed  to  analyze  techniques  of  the  bank’s  health  assessment  and determine  which  strategies  should  be  done  in  order  to  improve  the  health  of the bank. The method used is the approach of Risk (Risk Based-Bank Rating in accordance with Bank Indonesia Regulation on Rating Bank that PBI Number: 13/1/PBI/2011  which  entered  into  force  on  January  1,  2012.  Bank  health assessment  performed  using  four  (4  factors:  Risk  Profile,  Good  Corporate Governance (GCG, Earning, and Capital. Object  of  this  study  is  PT.  Bank  Pembangunan  Daerah  Kalimantan  Selatan period  2012.  The  results  showed  that  the  health  of  banks  in  PT.  Bank Pembangunan  Daerah  Kalimantan  Selatan  getting  ranked  2,  meaning  can be  categorized  good.  Strategies  to  improve  the  health  value  of  a  bank  is  to improve aspects of Earnings and Capital. Strategis Steps that must to increase credit expansion, improve the quality and quantity of human resources, product innovation, and increase fee-based income. Keywords: Healthy  banks,  Risk  Profile,  Good  Corporate  Governance  (GCG,  Earnings, Capital

  15. Sharpening Sharpe Ratios

    OpenAIRE

    William N. Goetzmann; Jonathan E. Ingersoll Jr.; Matthew I. Spiegel; Ivo Welch

    2002-01-01

    It is now well known that the Sharpe ratio and other related reward-to-risk measures may be manipulated with option-like strategies. In this paper we derive the general conditions for achieving the maximum expected Sharpe ratio. We derive static rules for achieving the maximum Sharpe ratio with two or more options, as well as a continuum of derivative contracts. The optimal strategy has a truncated right tail and a fat left tail. We also derive dynamic rules for increasing the Sharpe ratio. O...

  16. A multi-region assessment of population rates of cardiac catheterization and yield of high-risk coronary artery disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clement Fiona M

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background There is variation in cardiac catheterization utilization across jurisdictions. Previous work from Alberta, Canada, showed no evidence of a plateau in the yield of high-risk disease at cardiac catheterization rates as high as 600 per 100,000 population suggesting that the optimal rate is higher. This work aims 1 To determine if a previously demonstrated linear relationship between the yield of high-risk coronary disease and cardiac catheterization rates persists with contemporary data and 2 to explore whether the linear relationship exists in other jurisdictions. Methods Detailed clinical information on all patients undergoing cardiac catheterization in 3 Canadian provinces was available through the Alberta Provincial Project for Outcomes Assessment in Coronary Heart (APPROACH disease and partner initiatives in British Columbia and Nova Scotia. Population rates of catheterization and high-risk coronary disease detection for each health region in these three provinces, and age-adjusted rates produced using direct standardization. A mixed effects regression analysis was performed to assess the relationship between catheterization rate and high-risk coronary disease detection. Results In the contemporary Alberta data, we found a linear relationship between the population catheterization rate and the high-risk yield. Although the yield was slightly less in time period 2 (2002-2006 than in time period 1(1995-2001, there was no statistical evidence of a plateau. The linear relationship between catheterization rate and high-risk yield was similarly demonstrated in British Columbia and Nova Scotia and appears to extend, without a plateau in yield, to rates over 800 procedures per 100,000 population. Conclusions Our study demonstrates a consistent finding, over time and across jurisdictions, of linearly increasing detection of high-risk CAD as population rates of cardiac catheterization increase. This internationally-relevant finding

  17. Increased Risk of Progression of Coronary Artery Calcification in Male Subjects with High Baseline Waist-to-Height Ratio: The Kangbuk Samsung Health Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oh, Hyung Geun; Nallamshetty, Shriram; Rhee, Eun Jung

    2016-02-01

    The waist-to-height ratio (WHtR) is an easy and inexpensive adiposity index that reflects central obesity. In this study, we examined the association of baseline WHtR and progression of coronary artery calcification (CAC) over 4 years of follow-up in apparently healthy Korean men. A total of 1,048 male participants (mean age, 40.9 years) in a health-screening program in Kangbuk Samsung Hospital, Seoul, Korea who repeated a medical check-up in 2010 and 2014 were recruited. Baseline WHtR was calculated using the value for the waist in 2010 divided by the value for height in 2010. The CAC score (CACS) of each subject was measured by multi-detector computed tomography in both 2010 and 2014. Progression of CAC was defined as a CACS change over 4 years greater than 0. During the follow-up period, progression of CAC occurred in 278 subjects (26.5%). The subjects with CAC progression had slightly higher but significant baseline WHtR compared to those who did not show CAC progression (0.51±0.04 vs. 0.50±0.04, P<0.01). The proportion of subjects with CAC progression significantly increased as the baseline WHtR increased from the 1st quartile to 4th quartile groups (18.3%, 18.7%, 28.8%, and 34.2%; P<0.01). The risk for CAC progression was elevated with an odds ratio of 1.602 in the 4th quartile group of baseline WHtR even after adjustment for confounding variables (95% confidence interval, 1.040 to 2.466). Increased baseline WHtR was associated with increased risk for CAC progression. WHtR might be a useful screening tool to identify individuals at high risk for subclinical atherosclerosis.

  18. Heart rate variability and increased risk for developing type 2 diabetes mellitus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penčić-Popović, Biljana; Ćelić, Vera; Ćosić, Zoran; Pavlović-Kleut, Milena; Čaparević, Zorica; Kostić, Nada; Milovanović, Branislav; Šljivić, Aleksandra; Stojčevski, Biljana

    2014-12-01

    To our knowledge there are no data about the relationship between elevated risk for developing type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM2) and altered cardiac autonomic function. The aim of this study was to evaluate the association between heart rate variability (HRV) and slightly increased risk for DM2. We evaluated 69 subjects (50.0 ± 14.4 years; 30 male) without DM2, coronary artery disease and arrhythmias. The subjects were divided into two groups according to the Finnish Diabetes Risk Score (FINDRISC): group I (n = 39) included subjects with 12 > FINDRISC ≥ 7; group II (n = 30) subjects with FINDRISC power--TP (7.2 ± 0.3 ln/ms2 vs 7.3 ± 0.3 ln/ms2; p = 0.029), and low frequency--LF (5.9 ± 0.4 ln/ms2 vs 6.3 ± 0.6 In/ms2; p = 0.006), over entire 24 h, as well as TP (7.1 ± 0.3 In/ms2 vs 7.3 ± 0.3 In/ms2; p = 0.004), very low frequency (6.2 ± 0.2 In/ms2 vs 6.3 ± 0.2 In/ms2; p = 0.030), LF (5.9 ± 0.4 In/ms2 vs 6.2 ± 0.3 In/ms2; p = 0.000) and high frequency (5.7 ± 0.4 In/ms2 vs 5.9 ± 0.4 In/ms2; p = 0.011) during the daytime compared to the group II. Nocturnal frequency domain analysis was similar between the groups. The low diurnal frequency was independently related to elevated risk for diabetes mellitus (beta = -0,331; p = 0.006). The obtained results suggest that even slightly elevated risk for developing diabetes mellitus may be related to impaired HRV.

  19. Sexual victimization of youth with a physical disability: an examination of prevalence rates, and risk and protective factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mueller-Johnson, Katrin; Eisner, Manuel P; Obsuth, Ingrid

    2014-11-01

    Children with disabilities have been shown to be at greater risk of victimization than those without. Although much of the research combines disability of any type into a single disability category, recent evidence suggests that not all types of disabilities are equally associated with victimization. To date, little knowledge exists about the victimization of youth with physical disabilities. This study used data from a national school-based survey of adolescents (n = 6,749, mean age = 15.41, SD = .66) in Switzerland to investigate sexual victimization (SV) among physically disabled youth. Two subtypes of SV were differentiated: contact SV, including penetration or touching/kissing, and non-contact SV, such as exhibitionism, verbal harassment, exposure to sexual acts, or cyber SV. A total of 360 (5.1%) youth self-identified as having a physical disability. Lifetime prevalence rates for contact SV were 25.95% for girls with a physical disability (odds ratio [OR] = 1.29 compared with able-bodied girls), 18.50% for boys with physical disability (OR = 2.78 compared with able-bodied boys), and 22.35% for the total sample with physical disability (OR = 1.74 compared with able-bodied youth). For non-contact SV, the lifetime prevalence was 48.11% for girls with a physical disability (OR = 1.44 compared with able-bodied girls), 31.76% for boys with physical disability (OR = 1.95 compared with able-bodied boys), and 40.28% for the total sample with physical disability (OR = 1.67 compared with able-bodied youth). After controlling for other risk factors, physical disability was a significant predictor of contact and non-contact SV for boys, but not for girls. © The Author(s) 2014.

  20. The time to ruin in some additive risk models with random premium rates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jacobsen, Martin

    2012-01-01

    to have a Laplace transform that is a rational function. The main results describe the joint Laplace transform of the time at ruin and the deficit at ruin. The method used consists in finding partial eigenfunctions for the generator of the joint process consisting of the Markov process and the accumulated...... of the present value of the Markov process. The intensity for a claim to occur is another nonnegative function of the value of the Markov process. The claim arrival times are the regeneration times for the Markov process. Two-sided claims are allowed, but the distribution of the positive claims is assumed......The risk processes considered in this paper are generated by an underlying Markov process with a regenerative structure and an independent sequence of independent and identically distributed claims. Between the arrivals of claims the process increases at a rate which is a nonnegative function...

  1. Breast Cancer-Related Arm Lymphedema: Incidence Rates, Diagnostic Techniques, Optimal Management and Risk Reduction Strategies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shah, Chirag [Department of Radiation Oncology, William Beaumont Hospital, Royal Oak, MI (United States); Vicini, Frank A., E-mail: fvicini@beaumont.edu [Department of Radiation Oncology, William Beaumont Hospital, Royal Oak, MI (United States)

    2011-11-15

    As more women survive breast cancer, long-term toxicities affecting their quality of life, such as lymphedema (LE) of the arm, gain importance. Although numerous studies have attempted to determine incidence rates, identify optimal diagnostic tests, enumerate efficacious treatment strategies and outline risk reduction guidelines for breast cancer-related lymphedema (BCRL), few groups have consistently agreed on any of these issues. As a result, standardized recommendations are still lacking. This review will summarize the latest data addressing all of these concerns in order to provide patients and health care providers with optimal, contemporary recommendations. Published incidence rates for BCRL vary substantially with a range of 2-65% based on surgical technique, axillary sampling method, radiation therapy fields treated, and the use of chemotherapy. Newer clinical assessment tools can potentially identify BCRL in patients with subclinical disease with prospective data suggesting that early diagnosis and management with noninvasive therapy can lead to excellent outcomes. Multiple therapies exist with treatments defined by the severity of BCRL present. Currently, the standard of care for BCRL in patients with significant LE is complex decongestive physiotherapy (CDP). Contemporary data also suggest that a multidisciplinary approach to the management of BCRL should begin prior to definitive treatment for breast cancer employing patient-specific surgical, radiation therapy, and chemotherapy paradigms that limit risks. Further, prospective clinical assessments before and after treatment should be employed to diagnose subclinical disease. In those patients who require aggressive locoregional management, prophylactic therapies and the use of CDP can help reduce the long-term sequelae of BCRL.

  2. Breast Cancer-Related Arm Lymphedema: Incidence Rates, Diagnostic Techniques, Optimal Management and Risk Reduction Strategies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shah, Chirag; Vicini, Frank A.

    2011-01-01

    As more women survive breast cancer, long-term toxicities affecting their quality of life, such as lymphedema (LE) of the arm, gain importance. Although numerous studies have attempted to determine incidence rates, identify optimal diagnostic tests, enumerate efficacious treatment strategies and outline risk reduction guidelines for breast cancer–related lymphedema (BCRL), few groups have consistently agreed on any of these issues. As a result, standardized recommendations are still lacking. This review will summarize the latest data addressing all of these concerns in order to provide patients and health care providers with optimal, contemporary recommendations. Published incidence rates for BCRL vary substantially with a range of 2–65% based on surgical technique, axillary sampling method, radiation therapy fields treated, and the use of chemotherapy. Newer clinical assessment tools can potentially identify BCRL in patients with subclinical disease with prospective data suggesting that early diagnosis and management with noninvasive therapy can lead to excellent outcomes. Multiple therapies exist with treatments defined by the severity of BCRL present. Currently, the standard of care for BCRL in patients with significant LE is complex decongestive physiotherapy (CDP). Contemporary data also suggest that a multidisciplinary approach to the management of BCRL should begin prior to definitive treatment for breast cancer employing patient-specific surgical, radiation therapy, and chemotherapy paradigms that limit risks. Further, prospective clinical assessments before and after treatment should be employed to diagnose subclinical disease. In those patients who require aggressive locoregional management, prophylactic therapies and the use of CDP can help reduce the long-term sequelae of BCRL.

  3. Comparative rate and risk factors of recurrent urethral stricture during different surgical procedures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Yu. Pushkar

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Objective – to identify the major risk factors leading to worse results of surgical treatment in patients with urethral stricture.Subjects and methods. Two hundred and forty-eight patients with urethral stricture underwent different surgical interventions: internal optical urethrotomy (IOU for strictures of different portions of the urethra in 157 patients (the operation was made once in 121 patients, twice in 24 patients, and thrice or more in 12; replacement urethroplasty using a buccal mucosa graft for strictures of the anterior urethra in 46 patients; Turner-Warwick’s anastomotic urethroplasty modified by Webster for strictures (distraction defects of the posterior urethra in 45 patients. The results of surgical treatment were studied using urethrography, uroflowmetry, urethrocystoscopy, the international prostate symptom score, quality of life (QoL questionnaire, and the international index of erectile function (IIEF questionnaire. The role of risk factors for postoperative recurrent urethral stricture was assessed by univariate and multivariate analyses.Results. The rate of recurrent urethral stricture after IOU was 66.9 % (59.5, 87.5, and 100 % after the first, second, third or more subsequent operations, respectively; 12.1 % after all types of urethroplasty, 15.2 % after augmentation urethroplasty, and 8.9 % after anastomotic urethroplasty. The major risk factors of recurrent urethral stricture after IOU were recognized to be the location of urethral stricture in the penile or bulbomembranous portions, a urethral stricture length of > 1 cm, severe urethral lumen narrowing, and performance of 2 or more operations; those after augmentation urethroplasty were previous ineffective treatment, a stricture length of > 4 cm, lichen sclerosus, and smoking; those after anastomotic urethroplasty were previous ineffective treatment, smoking, and a stricture length of > 4 cm.Conclusion. The results of the investigation have shown that only

  4. Comparative rate and risk factors of recurrent urethral stricture during different surgical procedures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Yu. Pushkar

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective – to identify the major risk factors leading to worse results of surgical treatment in patients with urethral stricture.Subjects and methods. Two hundred and forty-eight patients with urethral stricture underwent different surgical interventions: internal optical urethrotomy (IOU for strictures of different portions of the urethra in 157 patients (the operation was made once in 121 patients, twice in 24 patients, and thrice or more in 12; replacement urethroplasty using a buccal mucosa graft for strictures of the anterior urethra in 46 patients; Turner-Warwick’s anastomotic urethroplasty modified by Webster for strictures (distraction defects of the posterior urethra in 45 patients. The results of surgical treatment were studied using urethrography, uroflowmetry, urethrocystoscopy, the international prostate symptom score, quality of life (QoL questionnaire, and the international index of erectile function (IIEF questionnaire. The role of risk factors for postoperative recurrent urethral stricture was assessed by univariate and multivariate analyses.Results. The rate of recurrent urethral stricture after IOU was 66.9 % (59.5, 87.5, and 100 % after the first, second, third or more subsequent operations, respectively; 12.1 % after all types of urethroplasty, 15.2 % after augmentation urethroplasty, and 8.9 % after anastomotic urethroplasty. The major risk factors of recurrent urethral stricture after IOU were recognized to be the location of urethral stricture in the penile or bulbomembranous portions, a urethral stricture length of > 1 cm, severe urethral lumen narrowing, and performance of 2 or more operations; those after augmentation urethroplasty were previous ineffective treatment, a stricture length of > 4 cm, lichen sclerosus, and smoking; those after anastomotic urethroplasty were previous ineffective treatment, smoking, and a stricture length of > 4 cm.Conclusion. The results of the investigation have shown that only

  5. Development of jacket platform tsunami risk rating system in waters offshore North Borneo

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, H. E.; Liew, M. S.; Mardi, N. H.; Na, K. L.; Toloue, Iraj; Wong, S. K.

    2016-09-01

    This work details the simulation of tsunami waves generated by seaquakes in the Manila Trench and their effect on fixed oil and gas jacket platforms in waters offshore North Borneo. For this study, a four-leg living quarter jacket platform located in a water depth of 63m is modelled in SACS v5.3. Malaysia has traditionally been perceived to be safe from the hazards of earthquakes and tsunamis. Local design practices tend to neglect tsunami waves and include no such provisions. In 2004, a 9.3 M w seaquake occurred off the northwest coast of Aceh, which generated tsunami waves that caused destruction in Malaysia totalling US 25 million and 68 deaths. This event prompted an awareness of the need to study the reliability of fixed offshore platforms scattered throughout Malaysian waters. In this paper, we present a review of research on the seismicity of the Manila Trench, which is perceived to be high risk for Southeast Asia. From the tsunami numerical model TUNA-M2, we extract computer-simulated tsunami waves at prescribed grid points in the vicinity of the platforms in the region. Using wave heights as input, we simulate the tsunami using SACS v5.3 structural analysis software of offshore platforms, which is widely accepted by the industry. We employ the nonlinear solitary wave theory in our tsunami loading calculations for the platforms, and formulate a platform-specific risk quantification system. We then perform an intensive structural sensitivity analysis and derive a corresponding platform-specific risk rating model.

  6. The impact of macroeconomic variables on the evolution of the credit risk rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luminița Gabriela Istrate

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The dynamics of the real economy is a major driver of the evolution of arrears at the level of the pool of loans granted to non-financial companies, completed by the financial pressure induced by the monetary conditions. Lending allows on the one hand providing resources for companies that need financing for investment projects, on the other hand, it supports the fund holders to place resources for obtaining profit. The role of the lending policy in the activity of commercial banks is very important, as it may influence both the cost of credits and the loan portfolio quality in the future. The purpose of this research is to find the macroeconomic variables that significantly influence credit risk and to develop a statistical model for predicting the doubtful and non-performing loans rate. Thus, it is envisaged the research of mechanisms by which the dynamics of the real economy and the money market conditions influence the evolution of the credit risk in different business sectors.

  7. Cerebroplacental ratio thresholds measured within two weeks of birth and the risk of Cesarean section for intrapartum fetal compromise and adverse neonatal outcome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    N Bligh, Larissa; Alsolai, Amal A; Greer, Ristan M; Kumar, Sailesh

    2017-06-08

    Prediction of intrapartum fetal compromise in uncomplicated, term pregnancies is a global obstetric challenge. Currently, no widely accepted screening test for this condition exists, although the cerebroplacental ratio (CPR) shows promise. We aimed to prospectively evaluate the screening performance of the CPR 10 th centile for detection of Cesarean section for intrapartum fetal compromise (IFC) and composite adverse neonatal outcome (ANO) in low-risk women from 36 weeks and to determine the best CPR threshold from three previously described in the literature. In a blinded, prospective, observational, cohort study, 483 women with uncomplicated singleton pregnancies underwent fortnightly CPR measurement from 36 weeks to delivery and intrapartum and neonatal outcomes were recorded. The CPR 10 th centile threshold screening test performance was calculated for emergency Cesarean section for IFC and composite ANO, incorporating acidosis at birth, Apgar Cesarean section for IFC and 17.9% had a composite ANO. Sensitivity and specificity for CPR Cesarean section IFC and composite ANO, respectively. Comparing the three CPR thresholds, CPR Cesarean section for IFC area under the receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.72, composite ANO area under the receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.58), although its predictive utility was only fair for Cesarean section for IFC and poor for composite ANO. The CPR 10 th centile may be useful as a component of a risk assessment tool for Cesarean section for IFC in low risk pregnancies at term. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  8. The Performance Of Alternative Interest Rate Risk Measures And Immunization Strategies Under A Heath-Jarrow-Morton Framework

    OpenAIRE

    Agca, Senay

    2002-01-01

    The Heath-Jarrow-Morton (HJM) model represents the latest in powerful arbitrage-free technology for modeling the term structure and managing interest rate risk. Yet risk management strategies in the form of immunization portfolios using duration, convexity, and M-square are still widely used in bond portfolio management today. This study addresses the question of how traditional risk measures and immunization strategies perform when the term structure evolves in the HJM manner. Using Monte Ca...

  9. A remote sensing-assisted risk rating study to predict oak decline and recovery in the Missouri Ozark Highlands, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cuizhen Wang; Hong S. He; John M. Kabrick

    2008-01-01

    Forests in the Ozark Highlands underwent widespread oak decline affected by severe droughts in 1999-2000. In this study, the differential normalized difference water index was calculated to detect crown dieback. A multi-factor risk rating system was built to map risk levels of stands. As a quick response to drought, decline in 2000 mostly occurred in stands at low to...

  10. A risk microbiological profile of the Australian red meat industry: risk ratings of hazard-product pairings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sumner, John; Ross, Tom; Jenson, Ian; Pointon, Andrew

    2005-11-25

    A risk profile of microbial hazards across the supply continuum for the beef, sheep and goat meat industries was developed using both a qualitative tool and a semi-quantitative, spreadsheet tool, Risk Ranger. The latter is useful for highlighting factors contributing to food safety risk and for ranking the risk of various product/pathogen combinations. In the present profile the qualitative tool was used as a preliminary screen for a wide range of hazard-product pairings while Risk Ranger was used to rank in order of population health risk pairings for which quantitative data were available and for assessing the effect of hypothetical scenarios. 'High' risk hazard-product pairings identified were meals contaminated with Clostridium perfringens provided by caterers which have not implemented HACCP; kebabs cross-contaminated by Salmonella present in drip trays or served undercooked; meals served in the home cross-contaminated with Salmonella. 'Medium' risk hazard-product pairings identified were ready-to-eat meats contaminated with Listeria monocytogenes and which have extended shelf life; Uncooked Comminuted Fermented Meat (UCFM)/Salami contaminated with Enterohaemorrhagic E. coli (EHEC) and Salmonella; undercooked hamburgers contaminated with EHEC; kebabs contaminated by Salmonella under normal production or following final "flash" heating. Identified 'low' risk hazard-product pairings included cooked, ready-to-eat sausages contaminated with Salmonella; UCFM/Salami contaminated with L. monocytogenes; well-cooked hamburgers contaminated with EHEC. The risk profile provides information of value to Australia's risk managers in the regulatory, processing and R&D sectors of the meat and meat processing industry for the purposes of identifying food safety risks in the industry and for prioritising risk management actions.

  11. Credit risk migration rates modeling as open systems: A micro-simulation approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landini, S.; Uberti, M.; Casellina, S.

    2018-05-01

    The last financial crisis of 2008 stimulated the development of new Regulatory Criteria (commonly known as Basel III) that pushed the banking activity to become more prudential, either in the short and the long run. As well known, in 2014 the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) promulgated the new International Financial Reporting Standard 9 (IFRS 9) for financial instruments that will become effective in January 2018. Since the delayed recognition of credit losses on loans was identified as a weakness in existing accounting standards, the IASB has introduced an Expected Loss model that requires more timely recognition of credit losses. Specifically, new standards require entities to account both for expected losses from when the impairments are recognized for the first time and for full loan lifetime; moreover, a clear preference toward forward looking models is expressed. In this new framework, it is necessary a re-thinking of the widespread standard theoretical approach on which the well known prudential model is founded. The aim of this paper is then to define an original methodological approach to migration rates modeling for credit risk which is innovative respect to the standard method from the point of view of a bank as well as in a regulatory perspective. Accordingly, the proposed not-standard approach considers a portfolio as an open sample allowing for entries, migrations of stayers and exits as well. While being consistent with the empirical observations, this open-sample approach contrasts with the standard closed-sample method. In particular, this paper offers a methodology to integrate the outcomes of the standard closed-sample method within the open-sample perspective while removing some of the assumptions of the standard method. Three main conclusions can be drawn in terms of economic capital provision: (a) based on the Markovian hypothesis with a-priori absorbing state at default, the standard closed-sample method is to be abandoned

  12. The modified "Rockfall Hazard Rating System": a new tool for roads risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Budetta, P.

    2003-04-01

    This paper contains a modified method for the analysis of rockfall hazard along roads and motorways. The method is derived from that one developed by Pierson et alii at the Oregon State Highway Division. The Rockfall Hazard Rating System (RHRS) provides a rational way to make informed decisions on where and how to spend construction funds. An exponential scoring graph is used to represent the increase in hazard that is reflected in the nine categories forming the classification (slope height, ditch effectiveness, average vehicle risk, percent of decision site distance, roadway width, geological character, quantity of rockfall/event, climate and rock fall history). The resulting total score contains the essential elements regarding the evaluation of the consequences ("cost of failure"). In the modified method, the rating for the categories "ditch effectiveness", "decision sight distance", "rodway width", "geologic characteristic" and "climate and water circulation" have been rendered more easy and objective. The main modifications regard the introduction of the Romana's Slope Mass Rating improving the estimate of the geologic characteristics, of the volume of the potentially unstable blocks and underground water circulation. Other modifications regard the scoring determination for the categories "decision sight distance" and "road geometry". For these categories, the Italian National Council's standards (CNR) have been used. The method must be applied in both the traffic directions because the percentage of reduction in the "decision sight distance" greatly affects the results. An application of the method to a 2-km-long section of the Sorrentine road (n° 145) in Southern Italy was pointed out. A high traffic intensity affects the entire section of the road and rockfalls periodically cause casualties, as well as a large amount of damage and traffic interruptions. The method was applied on seven cross section traces of slopes adjacent to the Sorrentine road and the

  13. Cardiometabolic Risk Assessments by Body Mass Index z-Score or Waist-to-Height Ratio in a Multiethnic Sample of Sixth-Graders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kahn, Henry S.; El ghormli, Laure; Jago, Russell; Foster, Gary D.; McMurray, Robert G.; Buse, John B.; Stadler, Diane D.; Treviño, Roberto P.; Baranowski, Tom; HEALTHY Study Group

    2014-01-01

    Convention defines pediatric adiposity by the body mass index z-score (BMIz) referenced to normative growth charts. Waist-to-height ratio (WHtR) does not depend on sex-and-age references. In the HEALTHY Study enrollment sample, we compared BMIz with WHtR for ability to identify adverse cardiometabolic risk. Among 5,482 sixth-grade students from 42 middle schools, we estimated explanatory variations (R 2) and standardized beta coefficients of BMIz or WHtR for cardiometabolic risk factors: insulin resistance (HOMA-IR), lipids, blood pressures, and glucose. For each risk outcome variable, we prepared adjusted regression models for four subpopulations stratified by sex and high versus lower fatness. For HOMA-IR, R 2 attributed to BMIz or WHtR was 19%–28% among high-fatness and 8%–13% among lower-fatness students. R 2 for lipid variables was 4%–9% among high-fatness and 2%–7% among lower-fatness students. In the lower-fatness subpopulations, the standardized coefficients for total cholesterol/HDL cholesterol and triglycerides tended to be weaker for BMIz (0.13–0.20) than for WHtR (0.17–0.28). Among high-fatness students, BMIz and WHtR correlated with blood pressures for Hispanics and whites, but not black boys (systolic) or girls (systolic and diastolic). In 11-12 year olds, assessments by WHtR can provide cardiometabolic risk estimates similar to conventional BMIz without requiring reference to a normative growth chart. PMID:25132986

  14. Cardiometabolic Risk Assessments by Body Mass Index z-Score or Waist-to-Height Ratio in a Multiethnic Sample of Sixth-Graders

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henry S. Kahn

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Convention defines pediatric adiposity by the body mass index z-score (BMIz referenced to normative growth charts. Waist-to-height ratio (WHtR does not depend on sex-and-age references. In the HEALTHY Study enrollment sample, we compared BMIz with WHtR for ability to identify adverse cardiometabolic risk. Among 5,482 sixth-grade students from 42 middle schools, we estimated explanatory variations (R2 and standardized beta coefficients of BMIz or WHtR for cardiometabolic risk factors: insulin resistance (HOMA-IR, lipids, blood pressures, and glucose. For each risk outcome variable, we prepared adjusted regression models for four subpopulations stratified by sex and high versus lower fatness. For HOMA-IR, R2 attributed to BMIz or WHtR was 19%–28% among high-fatness and 8%–13% among lower-fatness students. R2 for lipid variables was 4%–9% among high-fatness and 2%–7% among lower-fatness students. In the lower-fatness subpopulations, the standardized coefficients for total cholesterol/HDL cholesterol and triglycerides tended to be weaker for BMIz (0.13–0.20 than for WHtR (0.17–0.28. Among high-fatness students, BMIz and WHtR correlated with blood pressures for Hispanics and whites, but not black boys (systolic or girls (systolic and diastolic. In 11-12 year olds, assessments by WHtR can provide cardiometabolic risk estimates similar to conventional BMIz without requiring reference to a normative growth chart.

  15. Reaction kinetics aspect of U3O8 kernel with gas H2 on the characteristics of activation energy, reaction rate constant and O/U ratio of UO2 kernel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Damunir

    2007-01-01

    The reaction kinetics aspect of U 3 O 8 kernel with gas H 2 on the characteristics of activation energy, reaction rate constant and O/U ratio of UO 2 kernel had been studied. U 3 O 8 kernel was reacted with gas H 2 in a reduction furnace at varied reaction time and temperature. The reaction temperature was varied at 600, 700, 750 and 850 °C with a pressure of 50 mmHg for 3 hours in gas N 2 atmosphere. The reation time was varied at 1, 2, 3 and 4 hours at a temperature of 750 °C using similar conditions. The reaction product was UO 2 kernel. The reaction kinetic aspect between U 3 O 8 and gas H 2 comprised the minimum activation energy (ΔE), the reaction rate constant and the O/U ratio of UO 2 kernel. The minimum activation energy was determined from a straight line slope of equation ln [{D b . R o {(1 - (1 - X b ) ⅓ } / (b.t.Cg)] = -3.9406 x 10 3 / T + 4.044. By multiplying with the straight line slope -3.9406 x 10 3 , the ideal gas constant (R) 1.985 cal/mol and the molarity difference of reaction coefficient 2, a minimum activation energy of 15.644 kcal/mol was obtained. The reaction rate constant was determined from first-order chemical reaction control and Arrhenius equation. The O/U ratio of UO 2 kernel was obtained using gravimetric method. The analysis result of reaction rate constant with chemical reaction control equation yielded reaction rate constants of 0.745 - 1.671 s -1 and the Arrhenius equation at temperatures of 650 - 850 °C yielded reaction rate constants of 0.637 - 2.914 s -1 . The O/U ratios of UO 2 kernel at the respective reaction rate constants were 2.013 - 2.014 and the O/U ratios at reaction time 1 - 4 hours were 2.04 - 2.011. The experiment results indicated that the minimum activation energy influenced the rate constant of first-order reaction and the O/U ratio of UO 2 kernel. The optimum condition was obtained at reaction rate constant of 1.43 s -1 , O/U ratio of UO 2 kernel of 2.01 at temperature of 750 °C and reaction time of 3

  16. [Do laymen understand information about hospital quality? An empirical verification using risk-adjusted mortality rates as an example].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sander, Uwe; Kolb, Benjamin; Taheri, Fatemeh; Patzelt, Christiane; Emmert, Martin

    2017-11-01

    The effect of public reporting to improve quality in healthcare is reduced by the limited intelligibility of information about the quality of healthcare providers. This may result in worse health-related choices especially for older people and those with lower levels of education. There is, as yet, little information as to whether laymen understand the concepts behind quality comparisons and if this comprehension is correlated with hospital choices. An instrument with 20 items was developed to analyze the intelligibility of five technical terms which were used in German hospital report cards to explain risk-adjusted death rates. Two online presentations of risk-adjusted death rates for five hospitals in the style of hospital report cards were developed. An online survey of 353 volunteers tested the comprehension of the risk-adjusted mortality rates and included an experimental hospital choice. The intelligibility of five technical terms was tested: risk-adjusted, actual and expected death rate, reference range and national average. The percentages of correct answers for the five technical terms were in the range of 75.0-60.2%. Between 23.8% and 5.1% of the respondents were not able to answer the question about the technical term itself. The least comprehensible technical terms were "risk-adjusted death rate" and "reference range". The intelligibility of the 20 items that were used to test the comprehension of the risk-adjusted mortality was between 89.5% and 14.2%. The two items that proved to be least comprehensible were related to the technical terms "risk-adjusted death rate" and "reference range". For all five technical terms it was found that a better comprehension correlated significantly with better hospital choices. We found a better than average intelligibility for the technical terms "actual and expected death rate" and for "national average". The least understandable were "risk-adjusted death rate" and "reference range". Since the self

  17. Accounting for Risk of Non-Completion in Private and Social Rates of Return to Higher Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toutkoushian, Robert K.; Shafiq, M. Najeeb; Trivette, Michael J.

    2013-01-01

    Conventional studies of the private and social rates of return to a Bachelor's degree focus on the earnings difference between Bachelor degree holders and high school graduates, and find that there are large rates of return for degree recipients. The estimates in these studies, however, do not take into account the risk of not completing a degree.…

  18. Relative Citation Ratio of Top Twenty Macedonian Biomedical Scientists in PubMed: A New Metric that Uses Citation Rates to Measure Influence at the Article Level

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mirko Spiroski

    2016-06-01

    Conclusion: It is necessary to accept top twenty Macedonian biomedical scientists as an example of new metric that uses citation rates to measure influence at the article level, rather than qualification of the best Macedonian biomedical scientists.

  19. An Inverse Problem Study: Credit Risk Ratings as a Determinant of Corporate Governance and Capital Structure in Emerging Markets: Evidence from Chinese Listed Companies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ManYing Kang

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Credit risk rating is shown to be a relevant determinant in order to estimate good corporate governance and to self-optimize capital structure. The conclusion is argued from a study on a selected (and justified sample of (182 companies listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange (SHSE and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange (SZSE and which use the same Shanghai Brilliance Credit Rating & Investors Service Company (SBCR assessment criteria, for their credit ratings, from 2010 to 2015. Practically, 3 debt ratios are examined in terms of 11 characteristic variables. Moreover, any relationship between credit rating and corporate governance can be thought to be an interesting finding. The relationship we find between credit rating and leverage is not as evident as that found by other researchers for different countries; it is significantly positively related to the outside director, firm size, tangible assets and firm age, and CEO and chairman office plurality. However, leverage is found to be negatively correlated with board size, profitability, growth opportunity, and non-debt tax shield. Credit rating is positively associated with leverage, but in a less significant way. CEO-Board chairship duality is insignificantly related to leverage. The non-debt tax shield is significantly correlated with leverage. The correlation coefficient between CEO duality and auditor is positive but weakly significant, but seems not consistent with expectations. Finally, profitability cause could be regarded as an interesting finding. Indeed, there is an inverse correlation between profitability and total debt (Notice that the result supports the pecking order theory. In conclusion, it appears that credit rating has less effect on the so listed large Chinese companies than in other countries. Nevertheless, the perspective of assessing credit risk rating by relevant agencies is indubitably a recommended time dependent leverage determinant.

  20. Evaluation of flow accelerated corrosion by coupled analysis of corrosion and flow dynamics. Relationship of oxide film thickness, hematite/magnetite ratio, ECP and wall thinning rate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uchida, Shunsuke; Naitoh, Masanori; Okada, Hidetoshi; Uehara, Yasushi; Koshizuka, Seiichi

    2011-01-01

    Systematic approaches to evaluate flow accelerated corrosion (FAC) are desired before discussing application of countermeasures for FAC. First, future FAC occurrence should be evaluated to identify locations where a higher possibility of FAC occurrence exists, and then, wall thinning rate at the identified FAC occurrence zone is evaluated to obtain the preparation time for applying countermeasures. Wall thinning rates were calculated with two coupled models: 1.static electrochemical analysis and 2.dynamic oxide layer growth analysis. The anodic current density and the electrochemical corrosion potential (ECP) were calculated with the static electrochemistry model based on an Evans diagram. The ferrous ion release rate, determined by the anodic current density, was applied as input for the dynamic double oxide layer model. Some of the dissolved ferrous ion was removed to the bulk water and others precipitated on the surface as magnetite particles. The thickness of oxide layer was calculated with the dynamic oxide layer growth model and then its value was used as input in the electrochemistry model. It was confirmed that the calculated results (corrosion rate and ECP) based on the coupled models were in good agreement with the measured ones. Higher ECP was essential for preventing FAC rate. Moderated conditions due to lower mass transfer coefficients resulted in thicker oxide layer thickness and then higher ECP, while moderated corrosion conditions due to higher oxidant concentrations resulted in larger hematite/magnetite rate and then higher ECP.

  1. Cardiac autonomic dysfunction is associated with high-risk albumin-to-creatinine ratio in young adolescents with type 1 diabetes in AdDIT (adolescent type 1 diabetes cardio-renal interventional trial).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cho, Yoon Hi; Craig, Maria E; Davis, Elizabeth A; Cotterill, Andrew M; Couper, Jennifer J; Cameron, Fergus J; Benitez-Aguirre, Paul Z; Dalton, R Neil; Dunger, David B; Jones, Timothy W; Donaghue, Kim C

    2015-04-01

    This study examined the association between cardiac autonomic dysfunction and high albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) in adolescents with type 1 diabetes. Adolescents recruited as part of a multicenter screening study (n = 445, 49% female, aged 10-17 years, mean duration 6.9 years; mean HbA1c 8.4%, 68 mmol/mol) underwent a 10-min continuous electrocardiogram recording for heart rate variability analysis. Time-domain heart rate variability measures included baseline heart rate, SD of the R-R interval (SDNN), and root mean squared difference of successive R-R intervals (RMSSD). Spectral analysis included sympathetic (low-frequency) and parasympathetic (high-frequency) components. Standardized ACR were calculated from six early morning urine collections using an established algorithm, reflecting age, sex, and duration, and stratified into ACR tertiles, where the upper tertile reflects higher nephropathy risk. The upper-tertile ACR group had a faster heart rate (76 vs. 73 bpm; P < 0.01) and less heart rate variability (SDNN 68 vs. 76 ms, P = 0.02; RMSSD 63 vs. 71 ms, P = 0.04). HbA1c was 8.5% (69 mmol/mmol) in the upper tertile vs. 8.3% (67 mmol/mol) in the lower tertiles (P = 0.07). In multivariable analysis, upper-tertile ACR was associated with faster heart rate (β = 2.5, 95% CI 0.2-4.8, P = 0.03) and lower RMSSD (β = -9.5, 95% CI -18.2 to -0.8, P = 0.03), independent of age and HbA1c. Adolescents at potentially higher risk for nephropathy show an adverse cardiac autonomic profile, indicating sympathetic overdrive, compared with the lower-risk group. Longitudinal follow-up of this cohort will further characterize the relationship between autonomic and renal dysfunction and the effect of interventions in this population. © 2015 by the American Diabetes Association. Readers may use this article as long as the work is properly cited, the use is educational and not for profit, and the work is not altered.

  2. Evaluation of the dose uniformity for double-plane high dose rate interstitial breast implants with the use of dose reference points and dose non-uniformity ratio

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    MAjor, T.; Polgar, C.; Somogyi, A.; Nemeth, G.

    2000-01-01

    This study investigated the influence of dwell time optimizations on dose uniformity characterized by dose values in dose points and dose non-uniformity ratio (DNR) and analyzed which implant parameters have influence on the DNR. Double-plane breast implants with catheters arranged in triangular pattern were used for the calculations. At a typical breast implant, dose values in dose reference points inside the target volume and volumes enclosed by given isodose surfaces were calculated and compared for non-optimized and optimized implants. The same 6-cm treatment length was used for the comparisons. Using different optimizations plots of dose non-uniformity ratio as a function of catheter separation, source step size, number of catheters, length of active sections were drawn and the minimum DNR values were determined. Optimization resulted in less variation in dose values over dose points through the whole volume and in the central plane only compared to the non-optimized case. At implant configurations consisting of seven catheters with 15-mm separation, 5-mm source step size and various active lengths adapted according to the type of optimization, the no optimization, geometrical (volume mode) and dose point (on dose points and geometry) optimization resulted in similar treatment volumes, but an increased high dose volume was observed due to the optimization. The dose non-uniformity ratio always had the minimum at average dose over dose normalization points, defined in the midpoints between the catheters through the implant volume. The minimum value of DNR depended on catheter separation, source step size, active length and number of catheters. The optimization had only a small influence on DNR. In addition to the reference points in the central plane only, dose points positioned in the whole implant volume can be used for evaluating the dose uniformity of interstitial implants. The dose optimization increases not only the dose uniformity within the implant but

  3. Birth to death analysis of the energy payback ratio and CO2 gas emission rates from coal, fission, wind, and DT-fusion electrical power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    White, Scott W.; Kulcinski, Gerald L.

    2000-01-01

    The amount of electrical energy produced over the lifetime of coal, LWR fission, UP fusion, and wind power plants is compared to the total amount of energy required to procure the fuel, build, operate, and decommission the power plants. The energy payback ratio varies from a low of 11 for coal plants to a high of 27 for DT-fusion plants. The magnitude of the energy investment and the source of the various energy inputs determine the CO 2 emission factor. This number varies from a low of 9 to a high of 974 tonnes of CO 2 per GW e h for DT-fusion and coal plants, respectively

  4. Evaluation of flow accelerated corrosion by coupled analysis of corrosion and flow dynamics (3), relationship of oxide film thickness, hematite/magnetite ratio, ECP and wall thinning rate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uchida, Shunsuke; Naitoh, Masanori; Okada, Hidetoshi; Uehara, Yasushi; Koshizuka, Seiichi

    2009-01-01

    Systematic approaches for evaluating flow accelerated corrosion (FAC) are desired before discussing application of countermeasures for FAC. Firstly, future FAC occurrence should be evaluated to identify locations where a higher possibility of FAC occurrence exists, and then, wall thinning rate at the identified FAC occurrence zone is evaluated to obtain the preparation time for applying countermeasures. Wall thinning rates were calculated with the coupled models of static electrochemical analysis and dynamic double oxide layer analysis. Anodic current density and electrochemical corrosion potential (ECP) were calculated with the static electrochemistry model based on an Evans diagram and ferrous ion release rate determined by the anodic current density was applied as input for the dynamic double oxide layer model. Some of the dissolved ferrous ion was removed to the bulk water and others precipitated on the surface as magnetite particles. The thickness of oxide layer was calculated with the dynamic double oxide layer model and then was applied as input for the electrochemistry model. It was confirmed that the calculated results based on the coupled models resulted good agreement with the measured ones. Higher ECP was essential for preventing FAC rate. Moderated conditions due to lower mass transfer coefficients resulted in thicker oxide layer thickness and then higher ECP, while moderated corrosion conditions due to higher oxidant concentrations resulted in larger hematite/magnetite rate and then higher ECP. (author)

  5. Risk Estimation for Lung Cancer in Libya: Analysis Based on Standardized Morbidity Ratio, Poisson-Gamma Model, BYM Model and Mixture Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alhdiri, Maryam Ahmed; Samat, Nor Azah; Mohamed, Zulkifley

    2017-03-01

    Cancer is the most rapidly spreading disease in the world, especially in developing countries, including Libya. Cancer represents a significant burden on patients, families, and their societies. This disease can be controlled if detected early. Therefore, disease mapping has recently become an important method in the fields of public health research and disease epidemiology. The correct choice of statistical model is a very important step to producing a good map of a disease. Libya was selected to perform this work and to examine its geographical variation in the incidence of lung cancer. The objective of this paper is to estimate the relative risk for lung cancer. Four statistical models to estimate the relative risk for lung cancer and population censuses of the study area for the time period 2006 to 2011 were used in this work. They are initially known as Standardized Morbidity Ratio, which is the most popular statistic, which used in the field of disease mapping, Poisson-gamma model, which is one of the earliest applications of Bayesian methodology, Besag, York and Mollie (BYM) model and Mixture model. As an initial step, this study begins by providing a review of all proposed models, which we then apply to lung cancer data in Libya. Maps, tables and graph, goodness-of-fit (GOF) were used to compare and present the preliminary results. This GOF is common in statistical modelling to compare fitted models. The main general results presented in this study show that the Poisson-gamma model, BYM model, and Mixture model can overcome the problem of the first model (SMR) when there is no observed lung cancer case in certain districts. Results show that the Mixture model is most robust and provides better relative risk estimates across a range of models. Creative Commons Attribution License

  6. DIGITAL FLOOD INSURANCE RATE MAP DATABASE, DODGE COUNTY, WISCONSIN, USA - MIP Dodge Portion Upper Rock River Watershed RiskMap DFIRM Update

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Emergency Management Agency, Department of Homeland Security — The Digital Flood Insurance Rate Map (DFIRM) Database depicts flood risk information and supporting data used to develop the risk data. The primary risk;...

  7. DIGITAL FLOOD INSURANCE RATE MAP DATABASE, COLUMBIA COUNTY, WISCONSIN, USA - MIP Columbia Portion Baraboo River Watershed RiskMap DFIRM Update

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Emergency Management Agency, Department of Homeland Security — The Digital Flood Insurance Rate Map (DFIRM) Database depicts flood risk information and supporting data used to develop the risk data. The primary risk;...

  8. Various rates of k and Na influence growth, seed cotton yield and ionic ratio of two cotton varieties in soil culture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ali, L.; Maqsood, M.A.; Ashraf, M.

    2009-01-01

    Cotton is generally grown on alkaline calcareous soils in arid and semi-arid areas of the country. Sodium can interact with other earth cations like K, Ca and Mg. Therefore, a pot study was conducted to investigate the growth, yield and ionic response of two cotton varieties. Four levels of K and Na were developed after considering indigenous K, Na status in soil. The treatments of K+Na in mg/kg were adjusted as, 105+37.5, 135+30 135+37.5 and 105+30 (control). Control treatment represented indigenous K, Na status of soil. The experiment continued until maturity. Application of K and Na increased seed cotton yield and boll weight significantly (p<0.01). Both varieties varied non-significantly with respect to K:Na ratio in leaf. The beneficial effects of Na with K application over control on seed cotton yield and boll weight were greater in NIBGE-2 than in MNH-786. Increase in seed cotton yield was attributed to maximum boll weight of both varieties. Significant negative correlation (r= -0.89, - 0.76, n= 4) was found between K:Na ratio and K use efficiency in shoot of NIBGE-2 and MNH-786, respectively. (author)

  9. The rate of endophthalmitis after pars plana vitrectomy and its risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tabatabaei, Seyed Ali; Soleimani, Mohammad; Vakili, Hadi; Naderan, Morteza; Lashay, Alireza; Faghihi, Houshang; Yaseri, Mehdi

    2018-05-11

    To study the incidence of endophthalmitis after pars plana vitrectomy, its causative organisms, and visual acuity outcomes. In this retrospective, comparative study, the medical records of patients with acute-onset postoperative endophthalmitis after pars plana vitrectomy at Farabi Eye Hospital, Tehran, Iran, during a 12-year period between January 2004 and November 2015 were reviewed. To compare the endophthalmitis patients with other cases who underwent pars plana vitrectomy at the same day and also the same operating room, a control group was developed by gathering the data from surgical records. In the present study, the incidence rate of pos- vitrectomy endophthalmitis was 0.04% (16/39783). The organisms identified in aqueous or vitreous cultures (culture positive 44%) included Streptococcus pneumoniae (two patients, 12.5%), Pseudomonas aeruginosa (two patients, 12.5%), fungi (two patients, 12.5%), and Streptococcus viridans (one patient, 6.25%). Visual acuity after treatment for endophthalmitis ranged from light perception (7 eyes) to hand motion (1 eye), and evisceration was performed in 8 eyes (50%). When comparing the cases (patients developing endophthalmitis) and controls (patients with no complications operated in the same day and place of operation with the case group), only not using tamponade showed a statistically significant relation with the occurrence of endophthalmitis (p = 0.034). Our results indicated low incidence of endophthalmitis after pars plana vitrectomy comparable to previous studies which resulted in poor visual acuity. It seems that not using tamponade might increase the risk of endophthalmitis among these patients.

  10. Lifetime radiation risks from low-dose rate radionuclides in beagles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goldman, M.; Rosenblatt, L.S.

    1985-01-01

    One of the largest, long-term (25-yr) animal studies on the effects of low-dose internal irradiation is almost completed. Some 335 beagles were given continuous exposure to graded 90 Sr [low linear energy transfer (LET)] in their diets (D-dogs) through adulthood. A second group (R-dogs) was given fractionated doses of 225 Ra (high LET) as young adults. A third group of 44 was given a single injection of 90 Sr as adults (S-dogs) to compare single to continuous dosages. All dogs were followed through their lifetimes. Only one of the 848 dogs is still alive. The animals were whole-body counted over their entire life span and were examined frequently for assessment of medical status. There were no acute radiation lethalities. Analyses of the large data base from these dogs have begun and preliminary indications are that 90 Sr, which was tested over a 1500-fold skeletal dose rate range, does not cause significant life shortening at average accumulation skeletal doses of ∼2500 rads (25 Gy) and that a curvilinear dose response curve for life shortening was seen at higher accumulation doses. The data will be discussed in terms of modern epidemiological concepts and quantifications will be related to certain parameters of human risk from acute or chronic radiation exposures

  11. Rate of Corneal Collagen Crosslinking Redo in Private Practice: Risk Factors and Safety

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joelle Antoun

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. To report the rate of progression of keratectasia after primary crosslinking (CXL and evaluate the safety and efficiency of CXL redo. Materials and Methods. We conducted a retrospective analysis of the patients who underwent CXL between 2010 and 2013 at the Beirut Eye Specialist Hospital, Lebanon. Progression of keratectasia was based on the presence of an increase in maximum keratometry of 1.00 D, a change in the map difference between two consecutive topographies of 1.00 D, a deterioration of visual acuity, or any change in the refraction. Primary and redo CXL were done using the same protocol. Results. Among the 221 eyes of 130 patients who underwent CXL, 7 eyes (3.17% of five patients met the criteria of progression. All patients reported a history of allergic conjunctivitis and eye rubbing and progressed within 9 to 48 months. No complications were noted and all patients were stable 1 year after CXL redo. Conclusion. Allergic conjunctivitis and eye rubbing were the only risk factors associated with keratoconus progression after CXL. A close followup is thus mandatory, even years after the procedure. CXL redo seems to be a safe and efficient technique to halt the progression after a primary CXL.

  12. School burnout and heart rate variability: risk of cardiovascular disease and hypertension in young adult females.

    Science.gov (United States)

    May, Ross W; Seibert, Gregory S; Sanchez-Gonzalez, Marcos A; Fincham, Frank D

    2018-05-01

    Emerging research documents the relationship between school burnout and some indicators of increased cardiovascular risk. Indicators of cardiovascular functioning assessed via ambulatory blood pressure and heart rate variability (HRV) have not been thoroughly explored in this research domain. Therefore, the current study examined relationships between school burnout and indicators of cardiac functioning via 24 h ambulatory blood pressure (BP) and electrocardiogram monitoring in a sample of young adult female undergraduates (N = 88). Two hypotheses were tested: (1) that independent of related negative affective symptomology (depression and anxiety), increased school burnout would be related to greater systolic and diastolic BP, higher low frequency (LF) HRV and lower very low frequency (VLF) HRV, and (2) that lower VLF would be related to greater school burnout independently of LF HRV. Hierarchical multiple regression analyzes showed that school burnout was significantly related to elevated ambulatory BP (systolic and diastolic) and HRV markers of increased cardiac sympathovagal tone. These findings support the hypotheses and suggest that school burnout might be implicated in the development of pre-hypertension or early cardiovascular disease. Study limitations and the need for future longitudinal research are discussed.

  13. Statewide prevalence of school children at risk of anaphylaxis and rate of adrenaline autoinjector activation in Victorian government schools, Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loke, Paxton; Koplin, Jennifer; Beck, Cara; Field, Michael; Dharmage, Shyamali C; Tang, Mimi L K; Allen, Katrina J

    2016-08-01

    The prevalence of school students at risk of anaphylaxis in Victoria is unknown and has not been previously studied. Similarly, rates of adrenaline autoinjector usage in the school environment have yet to be determined given increasing prescription rates. We sought to determine time trends in prevalence of school children at risk of anaphylaxis across all year levels and the annual usage rate of adrenaline autoinjectors in the school setting relative to the number of students at risk of anaphylaxis. Statewide surveys from more than 1,500 government schools including more than 550,000 students were used and prevalence rates (%) with 95% CIs were calculated. The overall prevalence of students at risk of anaphylaxis has increased 41% from 0.98% (95% CI, 0.95-1.01) in 2009 to 1.38% (95% CI, 1.35-1.41) in 2014. There was a significant drop in reporting of anaphylaxis risk with transition from the final year of primary school to the first year of secondary school, suggesting a change in parental reporting of anaphylaxis risk among secondary school students. The number of adrenaline autoinjectors activated per 1000 students at risk of anaphylaxis ranged from 6 to 8 per year, with consistently higher activation use in secondary school students than in primary school students. Statewide prevalence of anaphylaxis risk has increased in children attending Victorian government schools. However, adrenaline autoinjector activation has remained fairly stable despite known increase in the rates of prescription. Copyright © 2016 American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Emotional stress and heart rate variability measures associated with cardiovascular risk in relocated Katrina survivors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tucker, Phebe; Pfefferbaum, Betty; Jeon-Slaughter, Haekyung; Khan, Qaiser; Garton, Theresa

    2012-01-01

    To explore the effects of hurricane exposure and forced relocation on the mind and body, we compared psychiatric diagnoses and symptoms with heart rate variability (HRV) for 34 relocated Katrina survivors and 34 demographically matched controls. All participants were healthy and free of psychiatric and cardiovascular medications. We measured symptoms of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) (Clinician-Administered PTSD Scale 1) and depression (Beck Depression Inventory), Axis I psychiatric diagnoses (Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV), psychosocial disability (Sheehan Disability Scale), and power spectral analysis HRV reactivity to trauma reminders. Katrina-related PTSD occurred in 38% of survivors and 12% of controls. Survivors reported higher levels of PTSD and depression symptoms, within diagnostic ranges, and greater psychosocial disability than controls. Survivors had higher resting heart rate (80.82 [standard deviation = 13.60] versus 74.85 [10.67], p = .05), lower parasympathetic (high-frequency [HF] normalized unit) baseline HRV activity (40.14 [23.81] versus 50.67 [19.93], p = .04) and less reactivity with trauma cues (-2.63 [20.70] versus -11.96 [15.84], p = .04), and higher baseline sympathovagal activity (low frequency/HF ratio) (2.84 [3.08] versus 1.35 [1.08], p = .04) than controls. Survivors with depression (n = 12) and with depression and PTSD combined (n = 7), but not those with PTSD (n = 13), had flattened parasympathetic responsiveness to trauma cues. HRV indices correlated with depressive (low frequency/HF, p = .01; HF normalized unit, p = .046) but not PTSD symptoms (p values > .05). Results showed this multilayer trauma's impact on emotional health and HRV-based measures of autonomic nervous system dysregulation. Specifically, dysregulation of depressed survivors' HRV in response to trauma reminders supports more autonomic involvement in traumatic loss/depression than in PTSD. Diagnostic criteria for PTSD include physiologic reactivity

  15. New reaction rate for 16O( p, γ )17F and its influence on the oxygen isotopic ratios in massive AGB stars

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Iliadis, C.; Angulo, C.; Descouvement, P.; Lugaro, M.A.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/304833975; Mohr, P.

    2008-01-01

    The 16O(p, γ )17F reaction rate is revisited with special emphasis on the stellar temperature range of T=60-100 MK, important for hot bottom burning in asymptotic giant branch (AGB) stars. We evaluate existing cross-section data that were obtained since 1958 and, if appropriate, correct published

  16. Fractional esterification rate of cholesterol and ratio of triglycerides to HDL-cholesterol are powerful predictors of positive findings on coronary angiography

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Frohlich, J.; Dobiášová, Milada

    2003-01-01

    Roč. 49, č. 11 (2003), s. 1873-1880 ISSN 0009-9147 R&D Projects: GA MZd NA6590 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z5011922 Keywords : fractional esterification rate of cholesterol (FERHDL) * coronary angiography * markers of atherosclerotic lesions Subject RIV: FA - Cardiovascular Diseases incl. Cardiotharic Surgery Impact factor: 5.538, year: 2003

  17. Expert ratings of job demand and job control as predictors of injury and musculoskeletal disorder risk in a manufacturing cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cantley, Linda F; Tessier-Sherman, Baylah; Slade, Martin D; Galusha, Deron; Cullen, Mark R

    2016-04-01

    To examine associations between workplace injury and musculoskeletal disorder (MSD) risk and expert ratings of job-level psychosocial demand and job control, adjusting for job-level physical demand. Among a cohort of 9260 aluminium manufacturing workers in jobs for which expert ratings of job-level physical and psychological demand and control were obtained during the 2 years following rating obtainment, multivariate mixed effects models were used to estimate relative risk (RR) of minor injury and minor MSD, serious injury and MSD, minor MSD only and serious MSD only by tertile of demand and control, adjusting for physical demand as well as other recognised risk factors. Compared with workers in jobs rated as having low psychological demand, workers in jobs with high psychological demand had 49% greater risk of serious injury and serious MSD requiring medical treatment, work restrictions or lost work time (RR=1.49; 95% CI 1.10 to 2.01). Workers in jobs rated as having low control displayed increased risk for minor injury and minor MSD (RR=1.45; 95% CI 1.12 to 1.87) compared with those in jobs rated as having high control. Using expert ratings of job-level exposures, this study provides evidence that psychological job demand and job control contribute independently to injury and MSD risk in a blue-collar manufacturing cohort, and emphasises the importance of monitoring psychosocial workplace exposures in addition to physical workplace exposures to promote worker health and safety. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

  18. Decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate and subsequent risk of end-stage renal disease and mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coresh, Josef; Turin, Tanvir Chowdhury; Matsushita, Kunihiro; Sang, Yingying; Ballew, Shoshana H; Appel, Lawrence J; Arima, Hisatomi; Chadban, Steven J; Cirillo, Massimo; Djurdjev, Ognjenka; Green, Jamie A; Heine, Gunnar H; Inker, Lesley A; Irie, Fujiko; Ishani, Areef; Ix, Joachim H; Kovesdy, Csaba P; Marks, Angharad; Ohkubo, Takayoshi; Shalev, Varda; Shankar, Anoop; Wen, Chi Pang; de Jong, Paul E; Iseki, Kunitoshi; Stengel, Benedicte; Gansevoort, Ron T; Levey, Andrew S

    2014-06-25

    The established chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression end point of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) or a doubling of serum creatinine concentration (corresponding to a change in estimated glomerular filtration rate [GFR] of −57% or greater) is a late event. To characterize the association of decline in estimated GFR with subsequent progression to ESRD with implications for using lesser declines in estimated GFR as potential alternative end points for CKD progression. Because most people with CKD die before reaching ESRD, mortality risk also was investigated. Individual meta-analysis of 1.7 million participants with 12,344 ESRD events and 223,944 deaths from 35 cohorts in the CKD Prognosis Consortium with a repeated measure of serum creatinine concentration over 1 to 3 years and outcome data. Transfer of individual participant data or standardized analysis of outputs for random-effects meta-analysis conducted between July 2012 and September 2013, with baseline estimated GFR values collected from 1975 through 2012. End-stage renal disease (initiation of dialysis or transplantation) or all-cause mortality risk related to percentage change in estimated GFR over 2 years, adjusted for potential confounders and first estimated GFR. The adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of ESRD and mortality were higher with larger estimated GFR decline. Among participants with baseline estimated GFR of less than 60 mL/min/1.73 m2, the adjusted HRs for ESRD were 32.1 (95% CI, 22.3-46.3) for changes of −57% in estimated GFR and 5.4 (95% CI, 4.5-6.4) for changes of −30%. However, changes of −30% or greater (6.9% [95% CI, 6.4%-7.4%] of the entire consortium) were more common than changes of −57% (0.79% [95% CI, 0.52%-1.06%]). This association was strong and consistent across the length of the baseline period (1 to 3 years), baseline estimated GFR, age, diabetes status, or albuminuria. Average adjusted 10-year risk of ESRD (in patients with a baseline estimated GFR of 35 mL/min/1.73 m2

  19. Thresholds for pulse wave velocity, urine albumin creatinine ratio and left ventricular mass index using SCORE, Framingham and ESH/ESC risk charts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sehestedt, Thomas Berend; Jeppesen, Jørgen; Hansen, Tine Willum

    2012-01-01

    Markers of subclinical target organ damage (TOD) increase cardiovascular (CV) risk prediction beyond traditional risk factors. We wanted to establish thresholds for three markers of TOD based on absolute CV risk in different risk chart categories....

  20. Rates and predictors of consideration for adjuvant radiotherapy among high-risk breast cancer patients: a cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krotneva, Stanimira; Reidel, Kristen; Nassif, Mohammed; Trabulsi, Nora; Mayo, Nancy; Tamblyn, Robyn; Meguerditchian, Ari N

    2013-07-01

    Radiotherapy (RT) after breast conserving surgery (BCS) represents the standard for local control of breast cancer (BC). However, variations in practice persist. We aimed to characterize the rate of RT consideration (or referral) after BCS and identify predictors in Quebec, Canada, where universal health insurance is in place. A historical prospective cohort study using the provincial hospital discharge and medical services databases was conducted. All women with incident, non-metastatic BC (stages I-III) undergoing BCS (1998-2005) were identified. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95 % confidence intervals (CIs) for RT consideration were estimated with a generalized estimating equations regression model, adjusting for clustering of patients within physicians. Of the 27,483 women selected, 90 % were considered for RT and 84 % subsequently received it. Relative to women 50-69 years old, younger and older women were less likely to be considered: ORs of 0.82 (95 % CI 0.73-0.93) and 0.10 (0.09-0.12), respectively. Emergency room visits and hospitalizations unrelated to BC were associated with decreased odds of RT consideration: 0.85 (0.76-0.94) and 0.83 (0.71-0.97). Women with regional BC considered for chemotherapy were more likely to be considered for RT: 3.41 (2.83-4.11). RT consideration odds increased by 7 % (OR of 1.07, 95 % CI 1.03-1.10) for every ten additional BCSs performed by the surgeon in the prior year. Social isolation, comorbidities, and greater distance to a referral center lowered the odds. Demographic and clinical patient-related risk factors, health service use, gaps in other aspects of BC management, and surgeon's experience predicted RT consideration.

  1. Elucidating the underlying causes of oral cancer through spatial clustering in high-risk areas of Taiwan with a distinct gender ratio of incidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chi-Ting Chiang

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed to elucidate whether or not high-risk clusters of oral cancer (OC incidence spatially correlate with the prevalence rates of betel quid chewing (BQC and cigarette smoking (CS in Taiwan. The spatial autocorrelation and potential clusters of OC incidence among the 307 townships and heavy metal content of soil throughout Taiwan were identified using the Anselin’s local Moran test. Additionally, the spatial correlations among the incidence of OC, the prevalence of BQC and CS and heavy metal content of soil were determined based on a comparison of spatial clusters. High-risk OC (Moran’s I = 0.638, P <0.001 clusters were located in central and eastern Taiwan, while “hot spots” of BQC and CS prevalence were located mainly in eastern Taiwan. The distributions of BQC and CS lifestyle factors (P <0.001 were spatially autocorrelated. The “hot spots” of OC largely coincided with the “hot spots” of BQC, except for the Changhua and Yunlin counties, which are located in central Taiwan. However, high soil contents of nickel and chromium (P <0.001 in central Taiwan also coincided with the high-risk areas of OC incidence. In particular, Changhua county has incurred several decades of serious heavy-metal pollution, with inhabitants living in polluted areas having high-risk exposure to these metals. Results of this study suggest that, in addition to BQC and CS, anthropogenic pollution may profoundly impact the complexity of OC aetiology in central Taiwan.

  2. Evaluation of Refuge Life Risk using Geographical and Social Grid-Models with Satellite-Based House Ratio and Flood Depth by Tsunami Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaneko, D.; Hosoyamada, T.

    2017-12-01

    The authors have developed social and geographical models for evaluating and applying life risk to the Kamakura coast near the south-western part of the metropolitan areas of Tokyo. The coastline close to the seismic center of the South Kanto earthquake is in the riskiest belt in the metropolitan area with a high possibility of house collapse and tsunami run-up. Kamakura is an important historical city, visited by many tourists who are not familiar with seismic dangers. There is a high probability of loss of human life during an evacuation of the city during tsunami waves. To evaluate the distribution of life