Sample records for risk projections models

  1. Modeling Research Project Risks with Fuzzy Maps

    Bodea, Constanta Nicoleta; Dascalu, Mariana Iuliana


    The authors propose a risks evaluation model for research projects. The model is based on fuzzy inference. The knowledge base for fuzzy process is built with a causal and cognitive map of risks. The map was especially developed for research projects, taken into account their typical lifecycle. The model was applied to an e-testing research…

  2. Enterprise Projects Set Risk Element Transmission Chaotic Genetic Model

    Cunbin Li


    Full Text Available In order to research projects set risk transfer process and improve risk management efficiency in projects management, combining chaos theory and genetic algorithm, put forward enterprise projects set risk element transmission chaos genetic model. Using logistic chaos mapping and chebyshev chaos mapping mixture, constructed a hybrid chaotic mapping system. The steps of adopting hybrid chaos mapping for genetic operation include projects set initialization, calculation of fitness, selection, crossover and mutation operators, fitness adjustment and condition judgment. The results showed that the model can simulate enterprise projects set risk transmission process very well and it also provides the basis for the enterprise managers to make decisions.

  3. Risk Classification Model for Design and Build Projects

    O. E. Ogunsanmi


    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to investigate if the various risk sources in Design and Build projects can be classified into three risk groups of cost, time and quality using the discriminant analysis technique. Literature search was undertaken to review issues of risk sources, classification of the identified risks into a risk structure, management of risks and effects of risks all on Design and Build projects as well as concepts of discriminant analysis as a statistical technique. This literature review was undertaken through the use of internet, published papers, journal articles and other published reports on risks in Design and Build projects. A research questionnaire was further designed to collect research information. This research study is a survey research that utilized cross-sectional design to capture the primary data. The data for the survey was collected in Nigeria. In all 40 questionnaires were sent to various respondents that included Architects, Engineers, Quantity Surveyors and Builders who had used Design and Build procurement method for their recently completed projects. Responses from these retrieved questionnaires that measured the impact of risks on Design and Build were analyzed using the discriminant analysis technique through the use of SPSS software package to build two discriminant models for classifying risks into cost, time and quality risk groups. Results of the study indicate that time overrun and poor quality are the two factors that discriminate between cost, time and quality related risk groups. These two discriminant functions explain the variation between the risk groups. All the discriminating variables of cost overrun, time overrun and poor quality demonstrate some relationships with the two discriminant functions. The two discriminant models built can classify risks in Design and Build projects into risk groups of cost, time and quality. These classifications models have 72% success rate of classification

  4. Fuzzy MCDM Model for Risk Factor Selection in Construction Projects

    Pejman Rezakhani


    Full Text Available Risk factor selection is an important step in a successful risk management plan. There are many risk factors in a construction project and by an effective and systematic risk selection process the most critical risks can be distinguished to have more attention. In this paper through a comprehensive literature survey, most significant risk factors in a construction project are classified in a hierarchical structure. For an effective risk factor selection, a modified rational multi criteria decision making model (MCDM is developed. This model is a consensus rule based model and has the optimization property of rational models. By applying fuzzy logic to this model, uncertainty factors in group decision making such as experts` influence weights, their preference and judgment for risk selection criteria will be assessed. Also an intelligent checking process to check the logical consistency of experts` preferences will be implemented during the decision making process. The solution inferred from this method is in the highest degree of acceptance of group members. Also consistency of individual preferences is checked by some inference rules. This is an efficient and effective approach to prioritize and select risks based on decisions made by group of experts in construction projects. The applicability of presented method is assessed through a case study.

  5. IS Project Management and Risk Escalation: Towards A Dynamic Model

    Angela Y Lin


    Full Text Available While the number of substantive investments in IS projects continues to grow, the number of failing projects also continues to increase at an alarming rate. Both the academic and industry literature suggests that inadequate attention to risk and its management continues to be a key factor in project failure. The typical approach taken is to identify and map potential risks, to act as a planning and diagnostic tool, and to prepare a contingency plan has been a factor-based approach. While it remains a valuable tool for mapping anticipated risks the factor-based approach is less effective when viewing project risks as emergent phenomena that un-fold during the course of the project, and require ongoing attention and risk management. In-formed by a case study of a failing university IS development project, this paper focuses on the phenomenon of risk escalation. The case findings suggest that rather than being defined ahead of the project, some project risks may emerge during the project as a consequence of escalation factors that were both antecedent to and a consequence of actual risk management decisions. The article concludes with suggestions as to how project managers can better man-age the emergent rather than static nature of risk phenomena.

  6. Extended Model of Managing Risk in New Product Development Projects

    Dušan Gošnik


    Full Text Available The aim of this research was to study new product development (NPDprojects-related risks and the literature in this field, as well as to developa specific extendedmodel of managing risks in npd projects, whichwill consider the nature of NPD projects. Data were collected with thehelp of the developed questionnaire, and project managers with severalyears of experience in the field of NPD projects were included. Thedata and hypotheses were tested with the use of statistical methods. Resultsof the study show that for NPD projects, it seems to be crucial toplan risks in the early stages of the project, especially focused on thedefinition of the technical requirements for the product and the relatedclear project objectives. Poorly defined technical requirements for theproduct present an important risk related with the design uncertaintyof the product. The more imprecise the technical requirements for theproduct before the project starts, the higher is the design uncertaintyof the product after its development. Unclear project objectives havea significant effect on the time-delay of npd projects. The more impreciselythe project objectives are defined before the project starts, thegreater is the time-delay on the NPD project.

  7. Model of generic project risk element transmission theory based on data mining

    LI Cun-bin; WANG Jian-jun


    In order to construct the data mining frame for the genetic project risk research, the basic definitions of the generic project risk element were given, and then a new model of the generic project risk element was presented with the definitions. From the model, data mining method was used to acquire the risk transmission matrix from the historical databases analysis. The quantitative calculation problem among the generic project risk elements was solved. This method deals with well the risk element transmission problems with limited states. And in order to get the limited states, fuzzy theory was used to discrete the historical data in historical databases. In an example, the controlling risk degree is chosen as P(Rs≥2) ≤0.1, it means that the probability of risk state which is not less than 2 in project is not more than 0.1, the risk element R3 is chosen to control the project, respectively. The result shows that three risk element transmission matrix can be acquired in 4 risk elements, and the frequency histogram and cumulative frequency histogram of each risk element are also given.

  8. The development of stochastic process modeling through risk analysis derived from scheduling of NPP project

    Lee, Kwang Ho; Roh, Myung Sub [KEPCO International Nuclear Graduate School, Ulsan (Korea, Republic of)


    There are so many different factors to consider when constructing a nuclear power plant successfully from planning to decommissioning. According to PMBOK, all projects have nine domains from a holistic project management perspective. They are equally important to all projects, however, this study focuses mostly on the processes required to manage timely completion of the project and conduct risk management. The overall objective of this study is to let you know what the risk analysis derived from scheduling of NPP project is, and understand how to implement the stochastic process modeling through risk management. Building the Nuclear Power Plant is required a great deal of time and fundamental knowledge related to all engineering. That means that integrated project scheduling management with so many activities is necessary and very important. Simulation techniques for scheduling of NPP project using Open Plan program, Crystal Ball program, and Minitab program can be useful tools for designing optimal schedule planning. Thus far, Open Plan and Monte Carlo programs have been used to calculate the critical path for scheduling network analysis. And also, Minitab program has been applied to monitor the scheduling risk. This approach to stochastic modeling through risk analysis of project activities is very useful for optimizing the schedules of activities using Critical Path Method and managing the scheduling control of NPP project. This study has shown new approach to optimal scheduling of NPP project, however, this does not consider the characteristic of activities according to the NPP site conditions. Hence, this study needs more research considering those factors.

  9. Modelling and Prioritization of System Risks in Early Project Phases

    Rajabali Nejad, Mohammadreza


    The rising complexity of product and systems demands further attention to potential Risks. While researchers explore tools and methods to identify system risk, its prioritization remains a challenging task in a multistakeholder environment. Hazard is the source of risk and causes harm. Harm may have

  10. Project Risk Management Phases

    Claudiu-George BOCEAN


    Risk management is the human activity which integrates recognition of risk, risk assessment, developing strategies to manage it, and mitigation of risk using managerial resources. Notwithstanding the domain of activities where they are conducted, projects often entail risks, and risk management has been widely recognized as a success factor in project management. Following a concept clarification on project risk management, this paper presents a generic list steps in the risk management proce...

  11. Risk modelling of food fraud motivation:'NSF fraud protection model' intelligent risk model scoping project FS 246004: final report

    Jack, Lisa


    Following the detection of horse meat in beef products, the project considered food fraud risk with a focus on anti-fraud tools and intelligence gathering from both the food and financial sector. It developed a framework that was tested by evaluation by stakeholders.

  12. Establishment and optimization of project investment risk income models on the basis of probability χ distribution

    吕渭济; 崔巍


    In this paper, two kinds of models are presented and optimized for project investment risk income on the basis of probability X distribution. One kind of model being proved has only a maximal value and another kind being proved has no extreme values.

  13. Significance of model credibility in estimating climate projection distributions for regional hydroclimatological risk assessments

    Brekke, L.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, M.


    Ensembles of historical climate simulations and climate projections from the World Climate Research Programme's (WCRP's) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) multi-model dataset were investigated to determine how model credibility affects apparent relative scenario likelihoods in regional risk assessments. Methods were developed and applied in a Northern California case study. An ensemble of 59 twentieth century climate simulations from 17 WCRP CMIP3 models was analyzed to evaluate relative model credibility associated with a 75-member projection ensemble from the same 17 models. Credibility was assessed based on how models realistically reproduced selected statistics of historical climate relevant to California climatology. Metrics of this credibility were used to derive relative model weights leading to weight-threshold culling of models contributing to the projection ensemble. Density functions were then estimated for two projected quantities (temperature and precipitation), with and without considering credibility-based ensemble reductions. An analysis for Northern California showed that, while some models seem more capable at recreating limited aspects twentieth century climate, the overall tendency is for comparable model performance when several credibility measures are combined. Use of these metrics to decide which models to include in density function development led to local adjustments to function shapes, but led to limited affect on breadth and central tendency, which were found to be more influenced by 'completeness' of the original ensemble in terms of models and emissions pathways. ?? 2007 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

  14. The longevity risk of the Dutch Actuarial Association’s projection model

    F. Peters (Frederick); W.J. Nusselder (Wilma); J.P. Mackenbach (Johan)


    markdownabstractAccurate assessment of the risk that arises from further increases in life expectancy is crucial for the financial sector, in particular for pension funds and life insurance companies. The Dutch Actuarial Association presented a revised projection model in 2010, while in the same yea

  15. Feasibility Risk Assessment of Transport Infrastructure Projects: The CBA-DK Decision Support Model

    Salling, Kim Bang; Banister, David


    This paper presents the final version of the CBA-DK decision support model for assessment of transport projects. The model makes use of conventional cost-benefit analysis resulting in aggregated single point estimates and quantitative risk analysis using Monte Carlo simulation resulting in interval...... result, and the determination of suitable probability distributions. Use is made of the reference class forecasting information, such as that developed in Optimism Bias for adjustments to investment decisions that relate to all modes of transport. The CBA-DK decision support model results in more...

  16. 76 FR 31329 - EPA Radiogenic Cancer Risk Models and Projections for the U.S. Population (Blue Book)


    ... AGENCY EPA Radiogenic Cancer Risk Models and Projections for the U.S. Population (Blue Book) AGENCY.... Population (EPA 402-R-11-001, April 2011), also known as the Blue Book, which provides radiation risk... Projections for the U.S. Population, also known as the Blue Book, is a revision to EPA's methodology for...

  17. Feasibility Risk Assessment of Transport Infrastructure Projects: The CBA-DK Decision Support Model

    Salling, Kim Bang; Banister, David


    results. Two special concerns in this paper is firstly the treatment of feasibility risk assessment adopted for evaluation of transport infrastructure projects, and secondly whether this can provide a more robust decision support model. This means moving away from a single point estimate to an interval...... result, and the determination of suitable probability distributions. Use is made of the reference class forecasting information, such as that developed in Optimism Bias for adjustments to investment decisions that relate to all modes of transport. The CBA-DK decision support model results in more...

  18. Risk pre-warning of tender evaluation for civil projects:an outlier detection model


    The marking scheme method removes the low scores of the contractor's attributes given by experts when the overall score is calculated, which may result in that a contractor with some latent risks will win the project. In order to remedy the above defect of the marking scheme method, an outlier detection model, which is one mission of knowledge discovery in data, is established on the basis of the sum of similar coefficients. Then, the model is applied to the historical score data of tender evaluation for ci...

  19. Review of Project SAFE: Comments on biosphere conceptual model description and risk assessment methodology

    Klos, Richard; Wilmot, Roger [Galson Sciences Ltd (United Kingdom)


    The Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company's (SKB's) most recent assessment of the safety of the Forsmark repository for low-level and intermediate-level waste (Project SAFE) is currently undergoing review by the Swedish regulators. As part of its review, the Swedish Radiation Protection Institute (SSI) identified that two components of SAFE require more detailed review: (i) the conceptual model description of the biosphere system, and (ii) SKB's risk assessment methodology. We have reviewed the biosphere system interaction matrix and how this has been used in the identification, justification and description of biosphere models for radiological assessment purposes. The risk assessment methodology has been reviewed considering in particular issues associated with scenario selection, assessment timescale, and the probability and risk associated with the well scenario. There is an extensive range of supporting information on which biosphere modelling in Project SAFE is based. However, the link between this material and the biosphere models themselves is not clearly set out. This leads to some contradictions and mis-matches between description and implementation. One example concerns the representation of the geosphere-biosphere interface. The supporting description of lakes indicates that interaction between groundwaters entering the biosphere through lake bed sediments could lead to accumulations of radionuclides in sediments. These sediments may become agricultural areas at some time in the future. In the numerical modelling of the biosphere carried out in Project SAFE, the direct accumulation of contaminants in bed sediments is not represented. Application of a more rigorous procedure to ensure numerical models are fit for purpose is recommended, paying more attention to issues associated with the geosphere-biosphere interface. A more structured approach to risk assessment would be beneficial, with a better explanation of the difference

  20. Risks to coral reefs from ocean carbonate chemistry changes in recent earth system model projections

    Ricke, K. L.; Orr, J. C.; Schneider, K.; Caldeira, K.


    Coral reefs are among the most biodiverse ecosystems in the world. Today they are threatened by numerous stressors, including warming ocean waters and coastal pollution. Here we focus on the implications of ocean acidification for the open ocean chemistry surrounding coral reefs, as estimated from earth system models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5). We project risks to reefs in the context of three potential aragonite saturation (Ωa) thresholds. We find that in preindustrial times, 99.9% of reefs adjacent to open ocean in the CMIP5 ensemble were located in regions with Ωa > 3.5. Under a business-as-usual scenario (RCP 8.5), every coral reef considered will be surrounded by water with Ωa reefs’ long-term fate is independent of their specific saturation threshold. However, under scenarios with significant CO2 emissions abatement, the Ωa threshold for reefs is critical to projecting their fate. Our results indicate that to maintain a majority of reefs surrounded by waters with Ωa > 3.5 to the end of the century, very aggressive reductions in emissions are required. The spread of Ωa projections across models in the CMIP5 ensemble is narrow, justifying a high level of confidence in these results.

  1. Risk Evaluation of a UHV Power Transmission Construction Project Based on a Cloud Model and FCE Method for Sustainability

    Huiru Zhao


    Full Text Available In order to achieve the sustainable development of energy, Ultra High Voltage (UHV power transmission construction projects are being established in China currently. Their high-tech nature, the massive amount of money involved, and the need for multi-agent collaboration as well as complex construction environments bring many challenges and risks. Risk management, therefore, is critical to reduce the risks and realize sustainable development of projects. Unfortunately, many traditional risk assessment methods may not perform well due to the great uncertainty and randomness inherent in UHV power construction projects. This paper, therefore, proposes a risk evaluation index system and a hybrid risk evaluation model to evaluate the risk of UHV projects and find out the key risk factors. This model based on a cloud model and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (FCE method combines the superiority of the cloud model for reflecting randomness and discreteness with the advantages of the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method in handling uncertain and vague issues. For the sake of proving our framework, an empirical study of “Zhejiang-Fuzhou” UHV power transmission construction project is presented. As key contributions, we find the risk of this project lies at a “middle” to “high” level and closer to a “middle” level; the “management risk” and “social risk” are identified as the most important risk factors requiring more attention; and some risk control recommendations are proposed. This article demonstrates the value of our approach in risk identification, which seeks to improve the risk control level and the sustainable development of UHV power transmission construction projects.


    Martin Tomanek


    Full Text Available There is a lack of formal risk management techniques in agile software development methods Scrum. The need to manage risks in agile project management is also identified by various authors. Authors conducted a survey to find out the current practices in agile project management. Furthermore authors discus the new integration framework of Scrum and PRINCE2 with focus on risk management. Enrichment of Scrum with selected practices from the heavy-weight project management methodology PRINCE2 promises better results in delivering software products especially in global development projects.

  3. Projection models for health-effects assessment in populations exposed to radioactive and nonradioactive pollutants. Volume I. Introduction to the SPAHR demographic model for health risk

    Collins, J.J.; Lundy, R.T.; Grahn, D.; Ginevan, M.E.


    The Simulation Package for the Analysis of Health Risk (SPAHR) is a computer software package based upon a demographic model for health risk projections. The model extends several health risk projection models by making realistic assumptions about the population at risk, and thus represents a distinct improvement over previous models. Complete documentation for use of SPAHR is contained in this five-volume publication. The demographic model in SPAHR estimates population response to environmental toxic exposures. Latency of response, changing dose level over time, competing risks from other causes of death, and population structure can be incorporated into SPAHR to project health risks. Risks are measured by morbid years, number of deaths, and loss of life expectancy. Comparisons of estimates of excess deaths demonstrate that previous health risk projection models may have underestimated excess deaths by a factor of from 2 to 10, depending on the pollutant and the exposure scenario. The software supporting the use of the demographic model is designed to be user oriented. Complex risk projections are made by responding to a series of prompts generated by the package. The flexibility and ease of use of SPAHR make it an important contribution to existing models and software packages. The first volume presents the theory behind the SPAHR health risk projection model and several applications of the model to actual pollution episodes. The elements required for an effective health risk projection model are specified, and the models that have been used to date in health risk projections are outlined. These are compared with the demographic model, whose formulation is described in detail. Examples of the application of air pollution and radiation dose-response functions are included in order to demonstrate the estimation of future mortality and morbidity levels and the range of variation in excess deaths that occurs when populations structure is changed.

  4. Modelling of risk events with uncertain likelihoods and impacts in large infrastructure projects

    Schjær-Jacobsen, Hans


    to prevent future budget overruns. One of the central ideas is to introduce improved risk management processes and the present paper addresses this particular issue. A relevant cost function in terms of unit prices and quantities is developed and an event impact matrix with uncertain impacts from independent......This paper presents contributions to the mathematical core of risk and uncertainty management in compliance with the principles of New Budgeting laid out in 2008 by the Danish Ministry of Transport to be used in large infrastructure projects. Basically, the new principles are proposed in order...... uncertain risk events is used to calculate the total uncertain risk budget. Cost impacts from the individual risk events on the individual project activities are kept precisely track of in order to comply with the requirements of New Budgeting. Additionally, uncertain likelihoods for the occurrence of risk...

  5. I-RaCM: A Fully Integrated Risk and Lifecycle Cost Model Project

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) proposes development of the Integrated Risk and Cost Model I-RaCM, as the innovation to meet the need for integrated cost and risk...

  6. Fuzzy Set-Based Risk Evaluation Model for Real Estate Projects

    SUN Yijian; HUANG Rufu; CHEN Dailin; LI Hongnan


    With the rapid development of residential real estate market, risk evaluation has been an important task in the process of project. This paper describes a risk evaluation method for residential real estate pro- jects based on fuzzy set theory which uses linguistic variables and respective fuzzy numbers to evaluate the factors. The primary weights of factors and evaluation of alternatives are determined by applying linguistic variables and fuzzy numbers. The notion of Shapley value is used to determine the global value of each fac- tor in accomplishing the overall objective of the risk evaluation process, so the primary weights are revised, thus the importance of factors can be reflected more precisely. A major advantage of the method is that it al- lows experts and engineers to express their opinions on project risk evaluation in linguistic variables rather than cdsp values. An illustration is presented to demonstrate the application of the method in risk evaluation. The results are consistent with the results calculated by conventional risk evaluation method. The research demonstrates that the method is objective and accurate, and is of an application value in the risk evaluation for residential real estate project.

  7. The Effects of Revealed Information on Catastrophe Loss Projection Models' Characterization of Risk: Damage Vulnerability Evidence from Florida.

    Karl, J Bradley; Medders, Lorilee A; Maroney, Patrick F


    We examine whether the risk characterization estimated by catastrophic loss projection models is sensitive to the revelation of new information regarding risk type. We use commercial loss projection models from two widely employed modeling firms to estimate the expected hurricane losses of Florida Atlantic University's building stock, both including and excluding secondary information regarding hurricane mitigation features that influence damage vulnerability. We then compare the results of the models without and with this revealed information and find that the revelation of additional, secondary information influences modeled losses for the windstorm-exposed university building stock, primarily evidenced by meaningful percent differences in the loss exceedance output indicated after secondary modifiers are incorporated in the analysis. Secondary risk characteristics for the data set studied appear to have substantially greater impact on probable maximum loss estimates than on average annual loss estimates. While it may be intuitively expected for catastrophe models to indicate that secondary risk characteristics hold value for reducing modeled losses, the finding that the primary value of secondary risk characteristics is in reduction of losses in the "tail" (low probability, high severity) events is less intuitive, and therefore especially interesting. Further, we address the benefit-cost tradeoffs that commercial entities must consider when deciding whether to undergo the data collection necessary to include secondary information in modeling. Although we assert the long-term benefit-cost tradeoff is positive for virtually every entity, we acknowledge short-term disincentives to such an effort. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  8. Providing a Model for Identification and Evaluation of Risks in Construction Projects

    Hossein Baharmand


    Full Text Available The present study is a kind of practical, analytical and descriptive in nature. Being analytical is due to collection of information by sampling and descriptive because the variables are measured as they are in real life. In this study by gathering evidences on existing effective risks in oil industry we aim to identify risk limits and present a more precise definition of risks of low, medium and high risks borders. Because of centralization of construction projects of petroleum industry in special economic zone of South Pars, planning, implementation and completion phases based on phases broadness regarding number and size of activities and separate strategic characteristics, 3 out of 28 phases were undertaken sample case study. It is concluded in general that using quantitative and numerical methods in determination of high and low risks approve more precise results. Additionally, carrying numerical tests out requires documentation within study based on identification of potential risks, risk record (earlier and similar as well as estimation of incidence of risk probability. Though frequency of risk may be less damaging, as reproducibility rule suggests it can be highly risky.

  9. ERP项目风险管理模型探析%ERP Project Risk Management Model Analysis



    Starting from the study on each phrase of whole life circle of the ERP project,this paper divides the project risk management into three sub-processes:risk identification,risk assessment and risk response. This thesis also introduces risk monitoring mechanism and establishes a model of ERP project risk management based on whole life circle.Through the analysis of the risk factors of the enterprise ERP project preparation, implementation,and operation and maintenance which exist in each stage,this paper puts forward a targeted approach of the project itself and each stage from numerous risk analysis methods,and provides countermeasures and suggestions to avoid risk effectively.%从ERP实施项目的全生命周期的各个阶段入手,将项目风险管理分为风险识别、风险评估、风险应对三个子过程,并引入风险监控机制,建立了基于全生命周期的ERP项目风险管理模型。通过对企业在ERP项目准备、实施及运行阶段中存在的风险因素分析,从众多的风险分析方法中找出对项目本身以及所处阶段有针对性的方法,给出有效规避风险的对策与建议。

  10. A Case-Based System for Construction Project Risk Management

    YANG Lan-rong; ZHANG Jin-long


    This paper presents a Case-Based system for assisting construction project managers in identifying risk factors and the corresponding construction project risk. The construction project risk identification model captures the case, acquired from previous completed construction projects and experience. A prototype is developed based on the proposed Case-Based system to determine risk factors along with their risk effects.

  11. The Integrated Risk Evaluation Model for the MIS Project%MIS项目的综合风险评估模型

    张珞玲; 李师贤


    It appears that, until from the end of 80's have western researchers attached importance to software project risk management. In China, little attention is paid to risk management. However, project risk management is very essential for the accomplishment of the software development. Therefore, it makes sense to apply risk management in MIS development to improve the chances of success. Focusing on risk identification and evaluation, the basic activities in risk management, the article puts forward an integrated risk evaluation model for the MIS project.

  12. Establishment and optimization of project investment risk income models on the basis of probability χ distribution

    LU Wei-ji; CUI Wei


    In this paper, two kinds of models are presented and optimized for pro ject investment risk income on the basis of probability χ distribution. One kin d of model being proved has only a maximal value and another kind being proved h as no extreme values.

  13. Human dimension in scientific models in high-mountain climate change and risk projects: Peruvian-Swiss experiences

    Vicuña, Luis; Jurt, Christine; Minan, Fiorella; Huggel, Christian


    Models in a range of scientific disciplines are increasingly seen as indispensable for successful adaptation. Governments as well as international organizations and cooperations put their efforts in basing their adaptation projects on scientific results. Thereby, it is critical that scientific models are first put into the particular context in which they will be applied. This paper addresses the experience of the project 'Glaciers 513- Climate change adaptation and disaster risk management for glacier retreat in the Andes' conducted in the districts of Carhuaz (Ancash region) and Santa Teresa (Cusco region) in Peru. The Peruvian and the Swiss governments put their joint efforts in an adaptation project in the context of climate change and the retreat of the glaciers. The project is led by a consortium of Care Peru and the University of Zurich with additional Swiss partners and its principal aim is to improve the capacity for integral adaptation and reduce the risk of disasters from glaciers and high-mountain areas, and effects of climate change, particularly in the regions of Cusco and Ancash. The paper shows how the so called "human dimension" on the one hand, and models from a range of disciplines, including climatology, glaciology, and hydrology on the other hand, were conceptualized and perceived by the different actors involved in the project. Important aspects have been, among others, the role of local knowledge including ancestral knowledge, demographic information, socio-economic indicators as well as the social, political and cultural framework and the historical background. Here we analyze the role and context of local knowledge and the historical background. The analysis of the implications of the differences and similarities of the perceptions of a range of actors contributes to the discussion about how, and to what extent scientific models can be contextualized, what kind of information can be helpful for the contextualization and how it can be

  14. Default risk in project finance

    Klompjan, R.; Wouters, Marc


    Understanding default risk in project finance is relevant to investors. This article investigates which factors are most strongly associated with the occurrence of project finance default, using data from 210 projects, of which 37 were in default. The authors found that the use of proven technology,

  15. Potential Bias in Projecting Future Regional Megadrought Risk: Insights From A Global Data-Model Framework

    Overpeck, J. T.; Ault, T.; Cole, J. E.; Fasullo, J.; Loope, G. R.; Parsons, L. A.; Stevenson, S.


    Megadrought is one of the most significant and costly climate extremes, and one that stakeholders (e.g., water and other resource managers) the world over wish to understand better; in particular, they need estimates of the risk of severe droughts as a function of drought frequency, severity, duration, and atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration. In many dry-climate regions of the globe, megadrought is synonymous with multi-decadal drought. However, in other regions, megadrought can be defined as extended drought, mostly not seen in the period of instrumental observations, and that would have large impacts if it were to occur in the future. New and published paleoclimatic observations allow us to understand the spectrum of drought in many regions of the globe; droughts exceeding 50 years have occurred in recent Earth history in southwestern North America, sub-Saharan Africa, the Mediterranean and Australia, whereas shorter megadroughts have occurred in Monsoon Asia, Amazonia and elsewhere. Data-model comparisons for regions with sufficiently long (e.g., 1000-2000 years) records of observed hydroclimatic variability suggest that state-of-the-art models can provide realistic estimates of interannual to decadal drought risk, but underestimate the risk of megadrought. Likely reasons for this shortcoming are the lack of sufficient multi-decadal variability in simulations of the past and future, plus an underappreciated understanding about how temperature variability and land-surface feedbacks interact with hydrological and ecological drought, as well as the roles played by unusually wet hydroclimatic extremes (e.g., ENSO related) in ending droughts of long duration. Paleoclimatic records also provide the opportunity to estimate how much models underestimate megadrought risk as a function of locale, frequency, severity, duration, and atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration; they also aid in providing stakeholders with bias-corrected estimates of megadrought risk.

  16. Risks of ocean acidification in the California Current food web and fisheries: ecosystem model projections.

    Marshall, Kristin N; Kaplan, Isaac C; Hodgson, Emma E; Hermann, Albert; Busch, D Shallin; McElhany, Paul; Essington, Timothy E; Harvey, Chris J; Fulton, Elizabeth A


    The benefits and ecosystem services that humans derive from the oceans are threatened by numerous global change stressors, one of which is ocean acidification. Here, we describe the effects of ocean acidification on an upwelling system that already experiences inherently low pH conditions, the California Current. We used an end-to-end ecosystem model (Atlantis), forced by downscaled global climate models and informed by a meta-analysis of the pH sensitivities of local taxa, to investigate the direct and indirect effects of future pH on biomass and fisheries revenues. Our model projects a 0.2-unit drop in pH during the summer upwelling season from 2013 to 2063, which results in wide-ranging magnitudes of effects across guilds and functional groups. The most dramatic direct effects of future pH may be expected on epibenthic invertebrates (crabs, shrimps, benthic grazers, benthic detritivores, bivalves), and strong indirect effects expected on some demersal fish, sharks, and epibenthic invertebrates (Dungeness crab) because they consume species known to be sensitive to changing pH. The model's pelagic community, including marine mammals and seabirds, was much less influenced by future pH. Some functional groups were less affected to changing pH in the model than might be expected from experimental studies in the empirical literature due to high population productivity (e.g., copepods, pteropods). Model results suggest strong effects of reduced pH on nearshore state-managed invertebrate fisheries, but modest effects on the groundfish fishery because individual groundfish species exhibited diverse responses to changing pH. Our results provide a set of projections that generally support and build upon previous findings and set the stage for hypotheses to guide future modeling and experimental analysis on the effects of OA on marine ecosystems and fisheries. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  17. Managing project risks and uncertainties

    Mike Mentis


    Full Text Available This article considers threats to a project slipping on budget, schedule and fit-for-purpose. Threat is used here as the collective for risks (quantifiable bad things that can happen and uncertainties (poorly or not quantifiable bad possible events. Based on experience with projects in developing countries this review considers that (a project slippage is due to uncertainties rather than risks, (b while eventuation of some bad things is beyond control, managed execution and oversight are still the primary means to keeping within budget, on time and fit-for-purpose, (c improving project delivery is less about bigger and more complex and more about coordinated focus, effectiveness and developing thought-out heuristics, and (d projects take longer and cost more partly because threat identification is inaccurate, the scope of identified threats is too narrow, and the threat assessment product is not integrated into overall project decision-making and execution. Almost by definition, what is poorly known is likely to cause problems. Yet it is not just the unquantifiability and intangibility of uncertainties causing project slippage, but that they are insufficiently taken into account in project planning and execution that cause budget and time overruns. Improving project performance requires purpose-driven and managed deployment of scarce seasoned professionals. This can be aided with independent oversight by deeply experienced panelists who contribute technical insights and can potentially show that diligence is seen to be done.

  18. Applied software risk management a guide for software project managers

    Pandian, C Ravindranath


    Few software projects are completed on time, on budget, and to their original specifications. Focusing on what practitioners need to know about risk in the pursuit of delivering software projects, Applied Software Risk Management: A Guide for Software Project Managers covers key components of the risk management process and the software development process, as well as best practices for software risk identification, risk planning, and risk analysis. Written in a clear and concise manner, this resource presents concepts and practical insight into managing risk. It first covers risk-driven project management, risk management processes, risk attributes, risk identification, and risk analysis. The book continues by examining responses to risk, the tracking and modeling of risks, intelligence gathering, and integrated risk management. It concludes with details on drafting and implementing procedures. A diary of a risk manager provides insight in implementing risk management processes.Bringing together concepts ...

  19. Risk Analysis Using Modeling and Simulation of Organizational Structure and Behavior Project

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Most major accidents do not result simply from proximal, physical events, but from the gradual drift of an organization to a state of heightened risk. Risk often...

  20. Risk Management for New Product Development Projects in Food Industry

    Porananond, D.


    Full Text Available Project risk management provides a guideline for decision making in new product development (NPD projects, reducing uncertainty and increasing success rate. However, the acceptance of formal risk management applications in industry, especially for NPD projects is still in question. A study of a food conglomerate in Thailand found that only 9% of NPD projects used a systematic approach for managing risk. 61% of the projects realised the importance of risk management, while the remaining 30% did not involve risk management at all. This study aims to develop a risk management model for NPD projects in the food industry. The first section of this paper reviews the literature on risk management theory, including international standards for risk and project management (ISO31000 and ISO21500, publications for the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK, by a professional organisation the Project Management Institute (PMI, and also academic research. 182 academic papers, published between January 2002 and August 2012 were selected. The second part interviews conducted with eight NPD experts from five of the major food manufacturers in Thailand to examine their risk management practices and problems. Conclusions are made on five topics : classification of research method, project type and industrial segment, distribution of articles by region, tools & techniques for risk management and risk factors in projects. Specific requirements of risk management for NPD projects in the food industry are identified. A risk management model and the concept of risk management applications for the food industry are proposed.

  1. Risk Factors in ERP Implementation Projects for Process Oriented

    Andrzej Partyka


    Full Text Available This paper present review and analysis of risk factors, which could affect successful implementation of ERP system, for project performed in project oriented organizations. Presented risk breakdown structure and the list of common risk factors, are well-suited for ERP implementation projects. Considered risk categories allow for complex risk analysis. Additionally, mapping of risk importance for particular implementation phases is presented. Making presented model an important input for project risk management process, especially for the beginning phases which require identification of risk factors.




    Full Text Available High risk – high benefit: a well-known correlation both in the economic field and in the day-to-day life. Another correlation, on which this article is based: large project – numerous participants – increased risks and other malfunctions. The risk management concept is challenged by those projects and is forced to find the most adequate “customized” ways for each project at its turn. In this respect, the assessment of management has followed the trend of the last three decades, marked by moving of management profit analysis by risk intermediation, respectively the transition from managing profit to risk-return relationship management. Such trend assumes the obligation of participants to identify objectives and expected benefits of the project on the basis of the strategies laid-down, the elements of risk management policies, in conjunction with the indication of the most negative scenarios which they may provide. This activity must take into consideration the process of obtaining and combining human, financial, physical and information resources in order to accomplish the primary goal of the proposed and wanted project by a certain segment of population. Project participants are directed to evaluate their own activities in terms of revenues and risks from the business access, opportunity, operating mode, as well as the limitations and boundaries on certain sides of activity. The paper focuses on the analysis and evaluation of incomes and risks, on simulations to streamline the activities and the determination of the optimal model of project choice. Also, the paper treats the risks that can be taken over by the sponsors, especially those related to implied guaranties, even implied guaranties.

  3. Risk factor modification and projections of absolute breast cancer risk.

    Petracci, Elisabetta; Decarli, Adriano; Schairer, Catherine; Pfeiffer, Ruth M; Pee, David; Masala, Giovanna; Palli, Domenico; Gail, Mitchell H


    Although modifiable risk factors have been included in previous models that estimate or project breast cancer risk, there remains a need to estimate the effects of changes in modifiable risk factors on the absolute risk of breast cancer. Using data from a case-control study of women in Italy (2569 case patients and 2588 control subjects studied from June 1, 1991, to April 1, 1994) and incidence and mortality data from the Florence Registries, we developed a model to predict the absolute risk of breast cancer that included five non-modifiable risk factors (reproductive characteristics, education, occupational activity, family history, and biopsy history) and three modifiable risk factors (alcohol consumption, leisure physical activity, and body mass index). The model was validated using independent data, and the percent risk reduction was calculated in high-risk subgroups identified by use of the Lorenz curve. The model was reasonably well calibrated (ratio of expected to observed cancers = 1.10, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.96 to 1.26), but the discriminatory accuracy was modest. The absolute risk reduction from exposure modifications was nearly proportional to the risk before modifying the risk factors and increased with age and risk projection time span. Mean 20-year reductions in absolute risk among women aged 65 years were 1.6% (95% CI = 0.9% to 2.3%) in the entire population, 3.2% (95% CI = 1.8% to 4.8%) among women with a positive family history of breast cancer, and 4.1% (95% CI = 2.5% to 6.8%) among women who accounted for the highest 10% of the total population risk, as determined from the Lorenz curve. These data give perspective on the potential reductions in absolute breast cancer risk from preventative strategies based on lifestyle changes. Our methods are also useful for calculating sample sizes required for trials to test lifestyle interventions.

  4. Blue Book: EPA Radiogenic Cancer Risk Models and Projections for the U.S. Population

    This document presents EPA estimates of cancer incidence and mortality risk coefficients pertaining to low dose exposures to ionizing radiation for the U.S. population, as well as their scientific basis.

  5. Enhancements and Extensions of Formal Models for Risk Assessment in Software Projects



  6. Firm Projects, NPV and Risk

    Hudakova, J


    An investor is estimating net present value of a firm project and performs risk analysis. Usually it is created portfolio hierarchies and make comparison of variants of project based on these hierarchies. Then one finds that portfolio which corresponds to the particular needs of individual groups within the firm. We have formulated a new type of NPV analysis based on the fact that normal distribution of NPV is observed for some projects in some industries. The expected risk of the project is given by variance, in which there is the standard deviation of the year n cash flow, the standard deviation of the investment I in the time zero, the correlation coefficient of the year n cash flow deviation from the average and of the investment I at time zero deviation from the mean investment at time zero, the correlation coefficient of the year n cash flow deviation from the average and of the year n' cash flow deviation from the average. The aim function of the investor into the project was found. The investor is cha...

  7. Project cost analysis under risk

    Florica LUBAN


    Full Text Available In this paper, an integrated approach based on Monte Carlo simulation and Six Sigma methodology is used to analyze the risk associated with a project's total cost. Monte Carlo simulation is applied to understand the variability in total cost caused by the probabilistic cost items. By Six Sigma methodology the range of variation of the project cost can be reduced by operating on the input factors with the greatest impact on total cost to cover the variation of 6 between the limits that were established in the design phase of Six Sigma.

  8. Using a coupled hydro-mechanical fault model to better understand the risk of induced seismicity in deep geothermal projects

    Abe, Steffen; Krieger, Lars; Deckert, Hagen


    The changes of fluid pressures related to the injection of fluids into the deep underground, for example during geothermal energy production, can potentially reactivate faults and thus cause induced seismic events. Therefore, an important aspect in the planning and operation of such projects, in particular in densely populated regions such as the Upper Rhine Graben in Germany, is the estimation and mitigation of the induced seismic risk. The occurrence of induced seismicity depends on a combination of hydraulic properties of the underground, mechanical and geometric parameters of the fault, and the fluid injection regime. In this study we are therefore employing a numerical model to investigate the impact of fluid pressure changes on the dynamics of the faults and the resulting seismicity. The approach combines a model of the fluid flow around a geothermal well based on a 3D finite difference discretisation of the Darcy-equation with a 2D block-slider model of a fault. The models are coupled so that the evolving pore pressure at the relevant locations of the hydraulic model is taken into account in the calculation of the stick-slip dynamics of the fault model. Our modelling approach uses two subsequent modelling steps. Initially, the fault model is run by applying a fixed deformation rate for a given duration and without the influence of the hydraulic model in order to generate the background event statistics. Initial tests have shown that the response of the fault to hydraulic loading depends on the timing of the fluid injection relative to the seismic cycle of the fault. Therefore, multiple snapshots of the fault's stress- and displacement state are generated from the fault model. In a second step, these snapshots are then used as initial conditions in a set of coupled hydro-mechanical model runs including the effects of the fluid injection. This set of models is then compared with the background event statistics to evaluate the change in the probability of

  9. Fuzzy based risk register for construction project risk assessment

    Kuchta, Dorota; Ptaszyńska, Ewa


    The paper contains fuzzy based risk register used to identify risks which appear in construction projects and to assess their attributes. Risk is considered here as a possible event with negative consequences for the project [4]. We use different risk attributes in the proposed risk register. Values of risk attributes are generated by using fuzzy numbers. Specific risk attributes have different importance for project managers of construction projects. To compare specific risk attributes we use methods of fuzzy numbers ranking. The main strengths of the proposed concept in managing construction projects are also presented in the paper.

  10. Radiation Risk Projections for Space Travel

    Cucinotta, Francis


    Space travelers are exposed to solar and galactic cosmic rays comprised of protons and heavy ions moving with velocities close to the speed of light. Cosmic ray heavy ions are known to produce more severe types of biomolecular damage in comparison to terrestrial forms of radiation, however the relationship between such damage and disease has not been fully elucidated. On Earth, we are protected from cosmic rays by atmospheric and magnetic shielding, and only the remnants of cosmic rays in the form of ground level muons and other secondary radiations are present. Because human epidemiology data is lacking for cosmic rays, risk projection must rely on theoretical understanding and data from experimental models exposed to space radiation using charged particle accelerators to simulate space radiation. Although the risks of cancer and other late effects from cosmic rays are currently believed to present a severe challenge to space travel, this challenge is centered on our lack of confidence in risk projections methodologies. We review biophysics and radiobiology data on the effects of the cosmic ray heavy ions, and the current methods used to project radiation risks . Cancer risk projections are described as a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. Risk projections for space travel are described using Monte-Carlo sampling from subjective error di stributions that represent the lack of knowledge in each factor that contributes to the projection model in order to quantify the overall uncertainty in risk projections. This analysis is applied to space mi ssion scenarios including lunar colony, deep space outpost, and a Mars mission. Results suggest that the number of days in space where cancer mortality risks can be assured at a 95% confidence level to be below the maximum acceptable risk for radi ation workers on Earth or the International Space Station is only on the order

  11. Physics-Based Identification, Modeling and Risk Management for Aeroelastic Flutter and Limit-Cycle Oscillations (LCO) Project

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The proposed research program will develop a physics-based identification, modeling and risk management infrastructure for aeroelastic transonic flutter and...

  12. Process-based project proposal risk management

    Alok Kumar


    Full Text Available We all are aware of the organizational omnipresence. Projects within the organizations are ubiquitous too. Projects achieve their goals successfully if they are planned, scheduled, controlled and implemented well. The project lifecycle of initiating, planning, scheduling, controlling and implementing are very well-planned by project managers and the organizations. Successful projects have well-developed risk management plans to deal with situations impacting projects. Like any other organisation, a university does try to access funds for different purposes too. For such organisations, running a project is not the issue, rather getting a project proposal approved to fund a project is the key. Project proposal processing is done by the nodal office in every organisation. Usually, these nodal offices help in administration and submission of a project proposal for accessing funds. Seldom are these nodal project offices within the organizations facilitate a project proposal approval by proactively reaching out to the project managers. And as project managers prepare project proposals, little or no attention is made to prepare a project proposal risk plan so as to maximise project acquisition. Risk plans are submitted while preparing proposals but these risk plans cater to a requirement to address actual projects upon approval. Hence, a risk management plan for project proposal is either missing or very little effort is made to treat the risks inherent in project acquisition. This paper is an integral attempt to highlight the importance of risk treatment for project proposal stage as an extremely important step to preparing the risk management plan made for projects corresponding to their lifecycle phases. Several tools and techniques have been proposed in the paper to help and guide either the project owner (proposer or the main organisational unit responsible for project management. Development of tools and techniques to further enhance project

  13. Systems approach to project risk management

    Kindinger, J. P. (John P.)


    This paper describes the need for better performance in the planning and execution of projects and examines the capabilities of two different project risk analysis methods for improving project performance. A quantitative approach based on concepts and tools adopted from the disciplines of systems analysis, probabilistic risk analysis, and other fields is advocated for managing risk in large and complex research & development projects. This paper also provides an overview of how this system analysis approach for project risk management is being used at Los Alamos National Laboratory along with examples of quantitative risk analysis results and their application to improve project performance.

  14. Risk Management Method in IT Project: A Review

    Ikhtiar Faahakhododo


    can produce a useful product and make a profit. This article clarified some of the methods of risk management exist. There was two techniques to determine the risks used in this study, those were Metrics of Process Structure and Referential Model or could be referred as the Comparison to the Referential Model technique. That technique will produce Software Process Meta Model, Model of Risk Management, and Manage Risks in Project models. Those models were used to help managers in mapping the risks of the project.

  15. The ChimERA project: Coupling mechanistic exposure and effect models into an integrated platform for ecological risk assessment

    Laender, de F.; Brink, van den P.J.; Janssen, C.R.; Guardo, Di A.


    Current techniques for the ecological risk assessment of chemical substances are often criticised for their lack of environmental realism, ecological relevance and methodological accuracy. ChimERA is a 3-year project (2013-2016), funded by Cefic's Long Range Initiative (LRI) that aims to address som

  16. The ChimERA project: Coupling mechanistic exposure and effect models into an integrated platform for ecological risk assessment

    Laender, de F.; Brink, van den P.J.; Janssen, C.R.; Guardo, Di A.


    Current techniques for the ecological risk assessment of chemical substances are often criticised for their lack of environmental realism, ecological relevance and methodological accuracy. ChimERA is a 3-year project (2013-2016), funded by Cefic's Long Range Initiative (LRI) that aims to address

  17. Causal Models for Risk Management

    Neysis Hernández Díaz


    Full Text Available In this work a study about the process of risk management in major schools in the world. The project management tools worldwide highlights the need to redefine risk management processes. From the information obtained it is proposed the use of causal models for risk analysis based on information from the project or company, say risks and the influence thereof on the costs, human capital and project requirements and detect the damages of a number of tasks without tribute to the development of the project. A study on the use of causal models as knowledge representation techniques causal, among which are the Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (DCM and Bayesian networks, with the most favorable MCD technique to use because it allows modeling the risk information witho ut having a knowledge base either itemize.

  18. Enrollment Projection Model.

    Gustafson, B. Kerry; Hample, Stephen R.

    General documentation for the Enrollment Projection Model used by the Maryland Council for Higher Education (MCHE) is provided. The manual is directed toward both the potential users of the model as well as others interested in enrollment projections. The first four chapters offer administrators or planners insight into the derivation of the…

  19. An Assessment of risk response strategies practiced in software projects

    Vanita Bhoola


    Full Text Available Risk management and success in projects are highly intertwined – better approaches to project risk management tend to increase chances of project success in terms of achieving scope & quality, schedule and cost targets. The process of responding to risk factors during a project’s life cycle is a crucial aspect of risk management referred to as risk response strategies, in this paper. The current research explores the status of risk response strategies applied in the software development projects in India. India provides a young IT-savvy English-speaking population, which is also cost effective. Other than the workforce, the environment for implementation of software projects in India is different from the matured economies. Risk management process is a commonly discussed theme, though its implementation in practice has a huge scope for improvement in India. The paper talks about four fundamental treatments to risk response – Avoidance, Transference, Mitigation and Acceptance (ATMA. From a primary data of 302 project managers, the paper attempts to address the risk response factors that lead to successful achievement of project scope & quality, schedule and cost targets, by using a series of regressions followed with Seemingly Unrelated Regression Equations (SURE modelling. Mitigation emerged as the most significant risk response strategy to achieve project targets. Acceptance, transference, and avoidance of risk were mostly manifested in the forms of transparency in communication across stakeholders, careful study of the nature of risks and close coordination between project team, customers/end-users and top management.

  20. 工程项目工期延误风险因素模型研究%The Delay Risk Model of Project Construction Period

    汪刘菲; 谢振安; 王向前; 李慧宗


    围绕工程项目工期延误的事故致因,结合多米诺骨牌理论,运用定量分析和文献分析,识别工程项目工期延误风险,包含项目自身风险、合同风险、业主方风险、承包方风险、设计方风险、监理方风险、材料供应方风险、自然环境风险以及社会环境风险9个潜变量。通过采集样本数据,运用 AMOS7.0以及 STATA12.0,构建了工程项目工期延误风险结构模型,揭示了模型各路径的作用机理。根据构建模型及其作用机理,为降低工程项目工期延误风险提出了相关策略借鉴。%Based on the accident cause of project delays,combining the theory of dominoes and using quantitative analysis and literature analysis,it identified nine latent variables which lead to project delays including property risk,contractor risk,the designer risk,supervision party risk,material supplier risk, project risk,contract risk,the natural environment and social environment risk in this paper.Through col-lecting sample data,using AMOS7.0 and STATA12.0,it built the delay risk structure model of project construction period and revealed the mechanism of different kinds of path.According to the model and the mechanism of the model,it put forward some relevant strategies to reduce the delay risk of project con-struction period.




    Full Text Available A project consists of a number of interrelated tasks whose aim is to produce a specific result. A project risk analysis consists of analyzing schedule, cost risk, quality of the final product etc. A cost risk analysis consists oflooking at the various costs associated with a project, their uncertainties and any risks or opportunities that may affect these costs. The distributions of cost are added up in a risk analysis to determine the uncertainty in thetotal cost of the project. A schedule risk analysis looks at the time required to complete the various tasks associated with a project, and the interrelationship between these tasks. In this paper we want to study the various risks associated with the project. We start this study with the assumption that a project’s cost and duration are linked together and also cost elements and schedule durations are correlated. The normal uncertainties in the cost items are modeled by continuous distributions like the Pert or triangular distribution. For project schedule modeling the most flexible environment is spreadsheet. We are interested in building blocks that typically make up a schedule risk analysis (also a cost risk analysis and then show how these elements are combined to produce a realistic model. In the same time we want implement software tools for run Monte Carlo simulations on standard project planning applications.


    Cristina Maria STOICA


    Full Text Available A project consists of a number of interrelated tasks whose aim is to produce a specific result. A project risk analysis consists of analyzing schedule, cost risk, quality of the final product etc. A cost risk analysis consists of looking at the various costs associated with a project, their uncertainties and any risks or opportunities that may affect these costs. The distributions of cost are added up in a risk analysis to determine the uncertainty in the total cost of the project. A schedule risk analysis looks at the time required to complete the various tasks associated with a project, and the interrelationship between these tasks. In this paper we want to study the various risks associated with the project. We start this study with the assumption that a project’s cost and duration are linked together and also cost elements and schedule durations are correlated. The normal uncertainties in the cost items are modeled by continuous distributions like the Pert or triangular distribution. For project schedule modeling the most flexible environment is spreadsheet. We are interested in building blocks that typically make up a schedule risk analysis (also a cost risk analysis and then show how these elements are combined to produce a realistic model. In the same time we want implement software tools for run Monte Carlo simulations on standard project planning applications.

  3. Involving end users to mitigate risk in IS development projects

    Amrit, C.; Hillegersberg, van J.; Diest, van B.


    In this paper the authors aim to gain insight into the relationship between user participation modes and project risk factors, and then they constructed a model that can be used to determine how user participation can be successfully applied in ISD projects with a given set of risk factors. The auth

  4. Insurance ratemaking method for risk of construction diversion project

    Chen Zhiding; Hu Zhigen


    Based on analyzing risk factors of diversion project, synthetic risk rate and engineering insurance period, the frequency and distribution law of loss are researched on the grounds that foundation pit is submerged after diversion project ceases to be effective. And then, the standpoint that these total loss is subject to non-homogeneous compound Poisson processes is put forward. Furthermore, the collective risk model of the total loss about engineering insurance is established on the basis of construction diversion project risk. Ultimately, insurance ratemaking method for construction engineering risk and its mathematical expression are presented, which provides theoretical method for the insurance ratemaking of hydropower engineering to some extent.

  5. Risk Management and Uncertainty in Infrastructure Projects

    Harty, Chris; Neerup Themsen, Tim; Tryggestad, Kjell


    for project and construction management. Our argument and claim is that predominant risk management approaches tends to reinforce conventional ideas of project control whilst undermining other notions of value and relevance of built assets and project management process. These approaches fail to consider...... the role and potential value of knowledge production during the project process, instead seeing knowledge as an input into upfront planning and specification. We examine ways in which actual project practices approach the question of risk management for the case of large public hospital building...... and infrastructure projects are quite simple, predictive and similar in nature. The cases reveal the emerging uncertainties that challenge the project plan and the risk management approach as new knowledge about the conditions are produced during the project processes. The paper concludes by proposing a more dynamic...

  6. Analysis of interactions among barriers in project risk management

    Dandage, Rahul V.; Mantha, Shankar S.; Rane, Santosh B.; Bhoola, Vanita


    In the context of the scope, time, cost, and quality constraints, failure is not uncommon in project management. While small projects have 70% chances of success, large projects virtually have no chance of meeting the quadruple constraints. While there is no dearth of research on project risk management, the manifestation of barriers to project risk management is a less dwelt topic. The success of project management is oftentimes based on the understanding of barriers to effective risk management, application of appropriate risk management methodology, proactive leadership to avoid barriers, workers' attitude, adequate resources, organizational culture, and involvement of top management. This paper represents various risk categories and barriers to risk management in domestic and international projects through literature survey and feedback from project professionals. After analysing the various modelling methods used in project risk management literature, interpretive structural modelling (ISM) and MICMAC analysis have been used to analyse interactions among the barriers and prioritize them. The analysis indicates that lack of top management support, lack of formal training, and lack of addressing cultural differences are the high priority barriers, among many others.

  7. Understanding Pre-Quantitative Risk in Projects

    Cooper, Lynne P.


    Standard approaches to risk management in projects depend on the ability of teams to identify risks and quantify the probabilities and consequences of these risks (e.g., the 5 x 5 risk matrix). However, long before quantification does - or even can - occur, and long after, teams make decisions based on their pre-quantitative understanding of risk. These decisions can have long-lasting impacts on the project. While significant research has looked at the process of how to quantify risk, our understanding of how teams conceive of and manage pre-quantitative risk is lacking. This paper introduces the concept of pre-quantitative risk and discusses the implications of addressing pre-quantitative risk in projects.

  8. Modelling of Transport Projects Uncertainties

    Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen


    This paper proposes a new way of handling the uncertainties present in transport decision making based on infrastructure appraisals. The paper suggests to combine the principle of Optimism Bias, which depicts the historical tendency of overestimating transport related benefits and underestimating...... investment costs, with a quantitative risk analysis based on Monte Carlo simulation and to make use of a set of exploratory scenarios. The analysis is carried out by using the CBA-DK model representing the Danish standard approach to socio-economic cost-benefit analysis. Specifically, the paper proposes......-based graphs which function as risk-related decision support for the appraised transport infrastructure project....

  9. Risk variables in evaluation of transport projects

    Vařbuchta, Petr; Kovářová, Hana; Hromádka, Vít; Vítková, Eva


    Depending on the constantly increasing demands on assessment of investment projects, especially assessment of large-scale projects in transport and important European projects with wide impacts, there is constantly increasing focus on risk management, whether to find mitigations, creating corrective measures or their implementation in assessment, especially in the context of Cost-Benefit analysis. To project assessment is often used implementation of certain risk variables, which can generate negative impacts of project outputs in framework of assess. Especially in case of transportation infrastructure projects is taken much emphasis on the influence of risk variables. However, currently in case of assessment of transportation projects is in Czech Republic used a few risk variables, which occur in the most projects. This leads to certain limitation in framework of impact assessment of risk variables. This papers aims to specify a new risk variables and process of applying them to already executed project assessment. Based on changes generated by new risk variables will be evaluated differences between original and adapted assessment.

  10. Managing complex, high risk projects a guide to basic and advanced project management

    Marle, Franck


    Maximizing reader insights into project management and handling complexity-driven risks, this book explores propagation effects, non-linear consequences, loops, and the emergence of positive properties that may occur over the course of a project. This book presents an introduction to project management and analysis of traditional project management approaches and their limits regarding complexity. It also includes overviews of recent research works about project complexity modelling and management as well as project complexity-driven issues. Moreover, the authors propose their own new approaches, new methodologies and new tools which may be used by project managers and/or researchers and/or students in the management of their projects. These new elements include project complexity definitions and frameworks, multi-criteria approaches for project complexity measurement, advanced methodologies for project management (propagation studies to anticipate potential behaviour of the project, and clustering approaches...

  11. Risk management methodology for RBMN project

    Borssatto, Maria F.B.; Tello, Cledola C.O.; Uemura, George, E-mail:, E-mail:, E-mail: [Centro de Desenvolvimento da Tecnologia Nuclear (CDTN/CNEN-MG), Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil)


    RBMN Project has been developed to design, construct and commission a national repository to dispose the low- and intermediate-level radioactive wastes from the operation of nuclear power plants and other industries that use radioactive sources and materials. Risk is a characteristic of all projects. The risks arise from uncertainties due to assumptions associated with the project and the environment in which it is executed. Risk management is the method by which these uncertainties are systematically monitored to ensure that the objectives of the project will be achieved. Considering the peculiarities of the Project, that is, comprehensive scope, multidisciplinary team, apparently polemic due to the unknowing of the subject by the stake holders, especially the community, it is being developed a specific methodology for risk management of this Project. This methodology will be critical for future generations who will be responsible for the final stages of the repository. It will provide greater guarantee to the processes already implemented and will maintain a specific list of risks and solutions for this Project, ensuring safety and security of the repository throughout its life cycle that is the planned to last at least three hundred years. This paper presents the tools and processes already defined, management actions aimed at developing a culture of proactive risk in order to minimize threats to this Project and promote actions that bring opportunities to its success. The methodology is based on solid research on the subject, considering methodologies already established and globally recognized as best practices for project management. (author)

  12. Risk and protective factors across multiple microsystems associated with internalizing symptoms and aggressive behavior in rural adolescents: Modeling longitudinal trajectories from the Rural Adaptation Project.

    Smokowski, Paul R; Guo, Shenyang; Evans, Caroline B R; Wu, Qi; Rose, Roderick A; Bacallao, Martica; Cotter, Katie L


    The current study examined risk and protective factors across microsystems that impact the development of internalizing symptoms and aggression over 4 years in a sample of culturally diverse, rural adolescents. We explored whether risk and protective factors across microsystems were associated with changes in rates of internalizing symptoms and aggressive behavior. Data came from the Rural Adaptation Project (RAP), a 5-year longitudinal panel study of more than 4,000 students from 26 public middle schools and 12 public high schools. Three level HLM models were estimated to predict internalizing symptoms (e.g., depression, anxiety) and aggression. Compared with other students, risk for internalizing symptoms and aggression was elevated for youth exposed to risk factors in the form of school hassles, parent-child conflict, peer rejection, and delinquent friends. Microsystem protective factors in the form of ethnic identity, religious orientation, and school satisfaction decreased risk for aggression, but were not associated with internalizing symptoms, whereas future orientation and parent support decreased risk for internalizing symptoms, but not aggression. Results indicate that risks for internalizing symptoms and aggression are similar, but that unique protective factors are related to these adolescent behavioral health outcomes. Implications and limitations were discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  13. Assessing the Risk of Ecosystem Disruption in Europe using a Dynamic Vegetation Model driven by CMIP5 Regional Climatic Projections from EURO-CORDEX

    Dury, Marie; François, Louis; Hambuckers, Alain; Henrot, Alexandra; Jacquemin, Ingrid; Munhoven, Guy


    While the combination of warmer and drier mean climatic conditions can have severe impacts on ecosystems, extreme events like droughts or heat waves that break the gradual climate change can have more long-term consequences on ecosystem composition, functioning and carbon storage. Hence, it is essential to assess the changes in climate variability and the changes in frequency of extreme events projected for the future. Ecosystems could not be in a condition to adapt to these new conditions and might be disrupted. Here, the process-based dynamic vegetation model CARAIB DVM was used to evaluate and analyze how future climate and extreme events will affect European ecosystems. To quantify the uncertainties in the climatic projections and in their potential impacts on ecosystems, the vegetation model was driven with the outputs of different regional climatic models (RCMs), nested in CMIP5 GCM projections for the EURO-CORDEX project: ALADIN53 (Météo-France/CNRM), RACMO22E (KNMI), RCA4 (SMHI) and REMO2009 (MPI-CSC) RCMs. These climatic projections are at a high spatial resolution (0.11-degree, ˜12 km). CARAIB simulations were performed across Europe over the historical period 1951-2005 and the future period 2006-2100 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios. We simulated a set of 99 individual species (47 herbs, 12 shrubs and 40 trees) representing the major European ecosystem flora. First, we analyzed the climatic variability simulated by the climatic models over the historical period and compared it with the observed climatic variability. None of these climatic models can reproduce accurately the present natural climatic variability. Then, to assess the risk of ecosystem disruption in the future and to identify the vulnerable areas in Europe, we created an index combining several CARAIB outputs: runoff, mean NPP, soil turnover, burned area, appearance and disappearance of species. We evaluated the severity of change projected for these variables (period 2070

  14. Subjective risk assessment for planning conservation projects

    Game, Edward T.; Fitzsimons, James A.; Lipsett-Moore, Geoff; McDonald-Madden, Eve


    Conservation projects occur under many types of uncertainty. Where this uncertainty can affect achievement of a project’s objectives, there is risk. Understanding risks to project success should influence a range of strategic and tactical decisions in conservation, and yet, formal risk assessment rarely features in the guidance or practice of conservation planning. We describe how subjective risk analysis tools can be framed to facilitate the rapid identification and assessment of risks to conservation projects, and how this information should influence conservation planning. Our approach is illustrated with an assessment of risks to conservation success as part of a conservation plan for the work of The Nature Conservancy in northern Australia. Risks can be both internal and external to a project, and occur across environmental, social, economic and political systems. Based on the relative importance of a risk and the level of certainty in its assessment we propose a series of appropriate, project level responses including research, monitoring, and active amelioration. Explicit identification, prioritization, and where possible, management of risks are important elements of using conservation resources in an informed and accountable manner.

  15. Ranking risks in ambient intelligence projects

    C. López


    Full Text Available At present, numerous ambient intelligent (AmI applications are emerging which support current electronic and digitalenvironments. Professionals develop each of them by means of projects. AmI application projects have certain features that make them different from other engineering projects. Moreover, a wide rage of risks are present in the whole project. Therefore, to increase these projects’ chances to be successful, it is necessary to manage their specific risks adequately. In order to support the work of those practitioners managing these threats, this research proposes a multicriteria decision-making methodology called Analytic Hierarchy Process. This technique will enable theprioritization of risks in AmI projects according to their level of threat.

  16. Semantic Mediation Tool for Risk Reduction Project

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This project focuses on providing an infrastructure to aid the building of ontologies from existing NASA applications, in a manner that leads to long-term risk...

  17. NGNP Risk Management Database: A Model for Managing Risk

    John Collins; John M. Beck


    The Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) Risk Management System (RMS) is a database used to maintain the project risk register. The RMS also maps risk reduction activities to specific identified risks. Further functionality of the RMS includes mapping reactor suppliers Design Data Needs (DDNs) to risk reduction tasks and mapping Phenomena Identification Ranking Table (PIRTs) to associated risks. This document outlines the basic instructions on how to use the RMS. This document constitutes Revision 1 of the NGNP Risk Management Database: A Model for Managing Risk. It incorporates the latest enhancements to the RMS. The enhancements include six new custom views of risk data - Impact/Consequence, Tasks by Project Phase, Tasks by Status, Tasks by Project Phase/Status, Tasks by Impact/WBS, and Tasks by Phase/Impact/WBS.

  18. Risk quantification and risk management in renewable energy projects

    Michelez, Jean; Rossi, Nicola; Blazquez, Rosario; Martin, Juan Manuel; Mera, Emilio; Christensen, Dana; Peineke, Christian; Graf, Konstantin; Lyon, David; Stevens, Geoff


    A key challenge in obtaining financing at a reasonable cost is the ability to quantify and manage the different elements of risk (i.e. organizational, political, technical, commercial) associated with Renewable Energy (RE) projects. IEA Renewable Energy Technology Deployment (IEA-RETD) commissioned a study to Altran which provides RE-specific guidelines in classification, assessment and management of different risk elements associated to support project valuation.

  19. Project Documentation as a Risk for Public Projects

    Vladěna Štěpánková


    Full Text Available Purpose of the article: The paper presents the different methodologies used for creating documentation and focuses on public projects and their requirements for this documentation. Since documentation is also incorporated in the overall planning of the project and its duration is estimated using expert qualified estimate, can any change in this documentation lead to project delays, or increase its cost as a result of consuming administration, and therefore the documentation is seen as a risk, which may threaten the project as a public contract by which a company trying to achieve and obtains it, and generally any project. Methodology/methods: There are used methods of obtaining information in this paper. These are mainly structured interviews in combination with a brainstorming, furthermore also been used questionnaire for companies dealing with public procurement. As a data processing program was used MS Excel and basic statistical methods based on regression analysis. Scientific aim: The article deals with the construction market in the Czech Republic and examines the impact of changes in project documentation of public projects on their turnover. Findings: In this paper we summarize the advantages and disadvantages of having project documentation. In the case of public contracts and changes in legislation it is necessary to focus on creating documentation in advance, follow the new requirements and try to reach them in the shortest possible time. Conclusions: The paper concludes with recommendations on how to proceed, if these changes and how to reduce costs, which may cause the risk of documentation.

  20. Stop IT Project Failures Through Risk Management

    Remenyi, D


    This book is about information systems development failures and how to avoid them. .It considers what goes wrong with information systems development projects and what actions may be taken to avoid potential difficulties.The reduction of the impact,or even the elimination of the problems,is discussed in terms of an information systems risk management programme. Stop I.T.Project failure helps to ensure that IS project managers are successful in helping to deliver application systems. However, IS development risk can never be entirely eliminated and consequently the practitioner needs to bear in

  1. Project risk management in complex petrochemical system

    Kirin Snežana


    Full Text Available Investigation of risk in complex industrial systems, as well as evaluation of main factors influencing decision making and implementation process using large petrochemical company as an example, has proved the importance of successful project risk management. This is even more emphasized when analyzing systems with complex structure, i.e. with several organizational units. It has been shown that successful risk management requires modern methods, based on adequate application of statistical analysis methods.

  2. Modelling of Transport Projects Uncertainties

    Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen


    This paper proposes a new way of handling the uncertainties present in transport decision making based on infrastructure appraisals. The paper suggests to combine the principle of Optimism Bias, which depicts the historical tendency of overestimating transport related benefits and underestimating...... investment costs, with a quantitative risk analysis based on Monte Carlo simulation and to make use of a set of exploratory scenarios. The analysis is carried out by using the CBA-DK model representing the Danish standard approach to socio-economic cost-benefit analysis. Specifically, the paper proposes......-based graphs which functions as risk-related decision support for the appraised transport infrastructure project. The presentation of RSF is demonstrated by using an appraisal case concerning a new airfield in the capital of Greenland, Nuuk....

  3. Risk analysis for renewable energy projects due to constraints arising

    Prostean, G.; Vasar, C.; Prostean, O.; Vartosu, A.


    Starting from the target of the European Union (EU) to use renewable energy in the area that aims a binding target of 20% renewable energy in final energy consumption by 2020, this article illustrates the identification of risks for implementation of wind energy projects in Romania, which could lead to complex technical implications, social and administrative. In specific projects analyzed in this paper were identified critical bottlenecks in the future wind power supply chain and reasonable time periods that may arise. Renewable energy technologies have to face a number of constraints that delayed scaling-up their production process, their transport process, the equipment reliability, etc. so implementing these types of projects requiring complex specialized team, the coordination of which also involve specific risks. The research team applied an analytical risk approach to identify major risks encountered within a wind farm project developed in Romania in isolated regions with different particularities, configured for different geographical areas (hill and mountain locations in Romania). Identification of major risks was based on the conceptual model set up for the entire project implementation process. Throughout this conceptual model there were identified specific constraints of such process. Integration risks were examined by an empirical study based on the method HAZOP (Hazard and Operability). The discussion describes the analysis of our results implementation context of renewable energy projects in Romania and creates a framework for assessing energy supply to any entity from renewable sources.

  4. Consideration of Risk in PPP-Projects

    Josef Zimmermann


    Full Text Available Risk management has become a core competence for companies operating in construction services. In particular regarding Real Estate Development and Construction Management the fundamental knowledge and the dedicated ap- plication of risk assessment turn out to be critical. Construction Management deals with a multitude of local and temporal issues which are unknown or only given by statistical evaluation while conducting a unique construction project within a very tight frame of budget and time. Real Estate projects focus on the predictability of profitable operation for a fairly long period in advance and are therefore subject to many more and more voluminous uncertainties. With PPP-projects a more or less complete federal task is awarded to a private company. Its extent varies but com- prises at least design, construction and operation of a real estate project, e.g. a toll road, bridge, tunnel or other infrastructural object. Durations of such contracts of- ten extend to some 20 to 30 years. In this article the applicability of traditional means of risk management is inves- tigated for the use on PPP-projects and limits of risk consequences are pointed out. Finally we come to the conclusion, that the resulting unavertable risks tend to exceed every surcharge that could be successfully placed on a market.

  5. Knowledge Model: Project Knowledge Management

    Durao, Frederico; Dolog, Peter; Grolin, Daniel


    The Knowledge model for project management serves several goals:Introducing relevant concepts of project management area for software development (Section 1). Reviewing and understanding the real case requirements from the industrial perspective. (Section 2). Giving some preliminary suggestions f...

  6. Knowledge Model: Project Knowledge Management

    Durao, Frederico; Dolog, Peter; Grolin, Daniel


    The Knowledge model for project management serves several goals:Introducing relevant concepts of project management area for software development (Section 1). Reviewing and understanding the real case requirements from the industrial perspective. (Section 2). Giving some preliminary suggestions...


    Viera Pacáková


    Full Text Available The article focuses on providing brief theoretical definitions of the basic terms and methods of modeling and simulations of insurance risks in non-life insurance by means of mathematical and statistical methods using statistical software. While risk assessment of insurance company in connection with its solvency is a rather complex and comprehensible problem, its solution starts with statistical modeling of number and amount of individual claims. Successful solution of these fundamental problems enables solving of curtail problems of insurance such as modeling and simulation of collective risk, premium an reinsurance premium calculation, estimation of probabiliy of ruin etc. The article also presents some essential ideas underlying Monte Carlo methods and their applications to modeling of insurance risk. Solving problem is to find the probability distribution of the collective risk in non-life insurance portfolio. Simulation of the compound distribution function of the aggregate claim amount can be carried out, if the distibution functions of the claim number process and the claim size are assumed given. The Monte Carlo simulation is suitable method to confirm the results of other methods and for treatments of catastrophic claims, when small collectives are studied. Analysis of insurance risks using risk theory is important part of the project Solvency II. Risk theory is analysis of stochastic features of non-life insurance process. The field of application of risk theory has grown rapidly. There is a need to develop the theory into form suitable for practical purposes and demostrate their application. Modern computer simulation techniques open up a wide field of practical applications for risk theory concepts, without requiring the restricive assumptions and sophisticated mathematics. This article presents some comparisons of the traditional actuarial methods and of simulation methods of the collective risk model.

  8. Coastal hazards in a changing world: projecting and communicating future coastal flood risk at the local-scale using the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS)

    O'Neill, Andrea; Barnard, Patrick; Erikson, Li; Foxgrover, Amy; Limber, Patrick; Vitousek, Sean; Fitzgibbon, Michael; Wood, Nathan


    The risk of coastal flooding will increase for many low-lying coastal regions as predominant contributions to flooding, including sea level, storm surge, wave setup, and storm-related fluvial discharge, are altered with climate change. Community leaders and local governments therefore look to science to provide insight into how climate change may affect their areas. Many studies of future coastal flooding vulnerability consider sea level and tides, but ignore other important factors that elevate flood levels during storm events, such as waves, surge, and discharge. Here we present a modelling approach that considers a broad range of relevant processes contributing to elevated storm water levels for open coast and embayment settings along the U.S. West Coast. Additionally, we present online tools for communicating community-relevant projected vulnerabilities. The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) is a numerical modeling system developed to predict coastal flooding due to both sea-level rise (SLR) and plausible 21st century storms for active-margin settings like the U.S. West Coast. CoSMoS applies a predominantly deterministic framework of multi-scale models encompassing large geographic scales (100s to 1000s of kilometers) to small-scale features (10s to 1000s of meters), resulting in flood extents that can be projected at a local resolution (2 meters). In the latest iteration of CoSMoS applied to Southern California, U.S., efforts were made to incorporate water level fluctuations in response to regional storm impacts, locally wind-generated waves, coastal river discharge, and decadal-scale shoreline and cliff changes. Coastal hazard projections are available in a user-friendly web-based tool (, where users can view variations in flood extent, maximum flood depth, current speeds, and wave heights in response to a range of potential SLR and storm combinations, providing direct support to adaptation and management decisions. In order to capture


    Sandro Cabral


    Full Text Available This paper presents a risk management tool based on two well-known sets of concepts: FMEA (Failure Mode and Effect Analysis and PMBOK (Project Management Body of Knowledge. After presenting an adherence analysis between the suggested model and PMBOK, we apply the proposed instrument in a real case study: an ERP implementation at the largest Brazilian mail service and logistics organization. The main results show that the proposed model was largely successful because it identified and classified risks. Furthermore, the model helped to document the strategies and action plans needed to respond to these risks.

  10. Comparisons on International Approaches of Business and Project Risk Management

    Nadia Carmen ENE


    In this article we intend to present a comparative approach between three recognized international methodologies for risk management: RISKMAN, Project Management Institute Methodology-PMBoK and Project Risk Analysis and Management Guide (produced by Association for Project Management).

  11. Comparisons on International Approaches of Business and Project Risk Management

    Nadia Carmen ENE


    In this article we intend to present a comparative approach between three recognized international methodologies for risk management: RISKMAN, Project Management Institute Methodology-PMBoK and Project Risk Analysis and Management Guide (produced by Association for Project Management).

  12. Use of risk projection models to estimate mortality and incidence from radiation-induced breast cancer in screening programs

    Ramos, M [Chemical and Nuclear Engineering Department, Polytechnic University of Valencia, Camino de Vera s/n 46022 Valencia (Spain); Ferrer, S [Chemical and Nuclear Engineering Department, Polytechnic University of Valencia, Camino de Vera s/n 46022 Valencia (Spain); Villaescusa, J I [Radiation Protection Service, Hospital Universitario La Fe, Avda Campanar, 21 46009 Valencia (Spain); Verdu, G [Chemical and Nuclear Engineering Department, Polytechnic University of Valencia, Camino de Vera s/n 46022 Valencia (Spain); Salas, M D [Public Health General Direction, Conselleria de Sanitat de Valencia, C/Micer Masco, 31 46021 Valencia (Spain); Cuevas, M D [Assistential Service General Direction, Conselleria de Sanitat de Valencia, C/Micer Masco, 31 46021 Valencia (Spain)


    The authors report on a method to calculate radiological risks, applicable to breast screening programs and other controlled medical exposures to ionizing radiation. In particular, it has been applied to make a risk assessment in the Valencian Breast Cancer Early Detection Program (VBCEDP) in Spain. This method is based on a parametric approach, through Markov processes, of hazard functions for radio-induced breast cancer incidence and mortality, with mean glandular breast dose, attained age and age-at-exposure as covariates. Excess relative risk functions of breast cancer mortality have been obtained from two different case-control studies exposed to ionizing radiation, with different follow-up time: the Canadian Fluoroscopy Cohort Study (1950-1987) and the Life Span Study (1950-1985 and 1950-1990), whereas relative risk functions for incidence have been obtained from the Life Span Study (1958-1993), the Massachusetts tuberculosis cohorts (1926-1985 and 1970-1985), the New York post-partum mastitis patients (1930-1981) and the Swedish benign breast disease cohort (1958-1987). Relative risks from these cohorts have been transported to the target population undergoing screening in the Valencian Community, a region in Spain with about four and a half million inhabitants. The SCREENRISK software has been developed to estimate radiological detriments in breast screening. Some hypotheses corresponding to different screening conditions have been considered in order to estimate the total risk associated with a woman who takes part in all screening rounds. In the case of the VBCEDP, the total radio-induced risk probability for fatal breast cancer is in a range between [5 x 10{sup -6}, 6 x 10{sup -4}] versus the natural rate of dying from breast cancer in the Valencian Community which is 9.2 x 10{sup -3}. The results show that these indicators could be included in quality control tests and could be adequate for making comparisons between several screening programs.

  13. Research into specific risk assessment in project financing

    Ivana Bestvina Bukvić


    Full Text Available An assessment of investment justification in terms of risk enables the decision maker (investor to select, among available alternatives, the one with the most favourable correlation between the expected profit and assumed risk. At the micro level, the uncertainty of business success is extremely high in production activities, which is an additional incentive for taking a comprehensive approach to the issue of investment decision-making and the development of risk assessment techniques applicable in this particular segment of industry. Given the complexity of the manufacturing process, the length of the production cycle, market conditions, and entity-specific risks (which are difficult to measure, projects in manufacturing industry require a detailed and comprehensive assessment of specific risk factors and their cost-effectiveness. Ne - vertheless, since specific risks can be diversified, investment proposal assessments in practice usually do not cover their quantification and analysis. However, the majority of business entities do not have enough active projects in various industries to be able to fully diversify their business and thus minimize the level of specific risks. The impact of specific factors becomes one of the most important elements for business success. This paper analyses how far risk assessment methods regarding specific risks are used in practice. Furthermore, it analyses the significance of specific risks for total investment risk. This study gives new insi - ghts into the significance of specific risks to the overall investment assessment and the need for permanent development of traditionally used investment assessment models.

  14. Methodology for risk analysis of projects

    Roșu Maria Magdalena


    Full Text Available The risk in the organization activity as an economic and social system open, adaptive, with varying degrees of permeability to the influences from the current business environment, which is increasingly unpredictable and in which the only constant is the change, refers to the probability of not complying with the objectives set in terms of performance, execution and cost. The insufficient application of the recognized project management methodologies can be one of the main causes of projects failures in the organization with major influences on the activity efficiency and the performance recorded. Therefore, the methodology proposed in the paper, wants to be an effective tool, a formalized risk management tool, considered as a cyclical process, with several distinct phases, indispensable to the current organizational practice which should contribute to optimizing the project performance and its successful completion.

  15. 考虑破产风险约束的多项目投资组合决策模型%Multi-project Portfolio Model with Bankruptcy Risk

    徐维军; 罗伟强; 张卫国


    The premise of the expected returns for investors is the investment decision does not lead to bankruptcy . So controlling the probability of bankruptcy is essential .According to the credibility measure theory and the Roy’ s definition, we obtain the mathematic equation of bankruptcy risk control when the future cash flow is being the fuzzy variables .Under the effect of the bankruptcy factors in the investment process , we propose a multi-project portfolio decision model with bankruptcy risk control .Finally, we use the genetic algorithm to solve our proposed model , and a numerical example of project portfolio is given to illustrate the feasibility and the effectiveness of the proposed approaches .%项目投资决策不导致破产事件的发生,是投资者获得预期收益的前提,故控制破产事件发生的概率至关重要。鉴于此,本文基于可信性测度理论,根据Roy的定义给出了未来现金流量隶属三角模糊变量的控制破产风险的数学表达式,并构建了项目投资过程中受到破产风险因素影响的具有破产风险约束的多项目投资组合决策模型。最后,运用遗传算法对模型进行求解,并给出算例演示本文模型的实用性和有效性。

  16. Melanoma Risk Prediction Models

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing melanoma cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  17. Prototype Biology-Based Radiation Risk Module Project

    Terrier, Douglas; Clayton, Ronald G.; Patel, Zarana; Hu, Shaowen; Huff, Janice


    Biological effects of space radiation and risk mitigation are strategic knowledge gaps for the Evolvable Mars Campaign. The current epidemiology-based NASA Space Cancer Risk (NSCR) model contains large uncertainties (HAT #6.5a) due to lack of information on the radiobiology of galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and lack of human data. The use of experimental models that most accurately replicate the response of human tissues is critical for precision in risk projections. Our proposed study will compare DNA damage, histological, and cell kinetic parameters after irradiation in normal 2D human cells versus 3D tissue models, and it will use a multi-scale computational model (CHASTE) to investigate various biological processes that may contribute to carcinogenesis, including radiation-induced cellular signaling pathways. This cross-disciplinary work, with biological validation of an evolvable mathematical computational model, will help reduce uncertainties within NSCR and aid risk mitigation for radiation-induced carcinogenesis.


    Georgiana Cristina NUKINA


    Full Text Available Through Risk analysis developed model deciding whether control measures suitable for implementation. However, the analysis determines whether the benefits of a data control options cost more than the implementation.

  19. Study on the risk evaluation model for engineering project%基于粗集-支持向量机模型工程项目风险评价研究①


      工程项目的风险管理水平已成为决定工程项目成功与否的关键因素,风险分析与评价是目前风险管理研究中的热点领域。依据工程项目风险因素的性质,将工程项目风险因素指标分为社会风险、经济风险、技术风险、自然风险及管理风险等五大类。将工程风险因素按层次关系分组形成递阶层次结构,构建了工程项目风险的评价指标体系。再运用粗集理论在不影响其评价的基础上对指标进行约简,而后再利用支持向量机模型对其进行评价,从而构成了工程项目风险评价模型,为工程项目风险评价提供了新思路。%The risk management of construction project has become a key factor to determine the success of the project , the risk a-nalysis and evaluation is the hot topic of risk management research.Based on the nature of the project risk factors , risk factors of construction project can be divided into social risk , economic risk, technology risk, natural risk and management risk and other five categories.Will the project risk factors according to groups of hierarchy , construction of the project risk evaluation index sys-tem.Using rough set theory without affecting its evaluation on the reduction of indicators , and then use the support vector ma-chine model for its evaluation, so as to form the engineering project risk evaluation model , provides a new idea for risk evaluation of Engineering project.

  20. On grey relation projection model based on projection pursuit

    Wang Shuo; Yang Shanlin; Ma Xijun


    Multidimensional grey relation projection value can be synthesized as one-dimensional projection value by u-sing projection pursuit model.The larger the projection value is,the better the model.Thus,according to the projection value,the best one can be chosen from the model aggregation.Because projection pursuit modeling based on accelera-ting genetic algorithm can simplify the implementation procedure of the projection pursuit technique and overcome its complex calculation as well as the difficulty in implementing its program,a new method can be obtained for choosing the best grey relation projection model based on the projection pursuit technique.

  1. Management and risk in financed projects

    Roxana Mironescu


    Full Text Available With a caring and professional approach the project management activity may prove to be difficult enough. Many specialists in this field indicates that a project plan can be assimilated to a "roadmap", so, for a clear destination, the shortest path is of most pronounced efficacy in order to achieve that purpose, to travel the distance between a current state and desired state and all this is established and configured before we hit the road, all risks included, expected or not. In this paper we present a draft European-style management, which intends to conduct a communion of all the decision makers involved in creating a healthier community.

  2. Correlational Study of Risk Management and Information Technology Project Success

    Gillespie, Seth J.


    Many IT projects fail despite the best efforts to keep these projects within budget, schedule, and scope. Few studies have looked at the effect of project risk management tools and techniques on project success. The primary focus of this study was to examine the extent to which utilization of project risk management processes influence project…

  3. Correlational Study of Risk Management and Information Technology Project Success

    Gillespie, Seth J.


    Many IT projects fail despite the best efforts to keep these projects within budget, schedule, and scope. Few studies have looked at the effect of project risk management tools and techniques on project success. The primary focus of this study was to examine the extent to which utilization of project risk management processes influence project…


    Victor V. Guzhov


    Full Text Available The methodological and methodicalbases of risk management in innovativeprojects. Classification of risks. Types of risks depending on the stage of realizationof the innovative project. Investigated thefactors contributing to the emergence ofrisk situations. The basic techniques of risk management of innovation projects.Proposed criteria for the choice of the innovative project to implement in the realsector of the economy.

  5. An investigation of risk management strategies in projects

    Zahra Asadi


    Full Text Available Risk is considered as an inseparable part of any project and since all the effective factors in projects are not predictable, risk management is inevitable. One of the biggest administrative problems with internal projects is the managers’ neglect of the importance of risk management which leads to delay in projects delivery and increase of the cost of the projects. Since not all risks are regarded as threats but also as opportunities, risk management is considered as a balance factor between the loss of threats and the profit earned through opportunities. It has focused on some strategies for successful implementation of risk management in projects as well. In the risk management, the most logical way of planning is managing risk before taking risk. This study investigated risk and risk management, its aims, components, and different stages of risk to reach the expected aims and outcomes of the study.




    Full Text Available The internationalization of financial flows and banking and the rapid development of markets have changed the financial sector, causing him to respond with force and imagination. Under these conditions, the concerns of financial and banking institutions, rating institutions are increasingly turning to find the best solutions to hedge risks and maximize profits. This paper aims to present a number of advantages, but also limits the Merton model, the first structural model for modeling credit risk. Also, some are extensions of the model, some empirical research and performance known, others such as state-dependent models (SDM, which together with the liquidation process models (LPM, are two recent efforts in the structural models, show different phenomena in real life.

  7. A Computational Model to Simulate Groundwater Seepage Risk in Support of Geotechnical Investigations of Levee and Dam Projects


    process-imitating rules. The model aggrades an alluvial floodplain, creating floodplain architecture by differentiating between sediment deposited by...meandering rivers. The results suggest that the channel aggradation rate influenced heavily the relative channel avulsion frequency during floodplain...composition and organization of the river basin and its floodplain (Schumm 1968). In an actively building ( aggrading ) floodplain, the river channel is

  8. R & D project's investment evaluation based on real option and its value at risk

    SHEN Yu-zhi(沈玉志); ZHOU Xiao-fei(周效飞)


    The authors looked upon it as real options and applied the VaR(Value at Risk) method to the evaluation of its risk value based on the analysis of R & D project investment characteristics,and advanced the evaluation model of the project's return and risk according to financial theories.This paper expounded the two-dimension evaluation model of project,and divided it into five decision-making regions.

  9. Multilevel risk factors and developmental assets for internalizing symptoms and self-esteem in disadvantaged adolescents: modeling longitudinal trajectories from the Rural Adaptation Project.

    Smokowski, Paul R; Guo, Shenyang; Rose, Roderick; Evans, Caroline B R; Cotter, Katie L; Bacallao, Martica


    The current study filled significant gaps in our knowledge of developmental psychopathology by examining the influence of multilevel risk factors and developmental assets on longitudinal trajectories of internalizing symptoms and self-esteem in an exceptionally culturally diverse sample of rural adolescents. Integrating ecological and social capital theories, we explored if positive microsystem transactions are associated with self-esteem while negative microsystem transactions increase the chances of internalizing problems. Data came from the Rural Adaptation Project, a 5-year longitudinal panel study of more than 4,000 middle school students from 28 public schools in two rural, disadvantaged counties in North Carolina. Three-level hierarchical linear modeling models were estimated to predict internalizing symptoms (e.g., depression, anxiety) and self-esteem. Relative to other students, risk for internalizing problems and low self-esteem was elevated for aggressive adolescents, students who were hassled or bullied at school, and those who were rejected by peers or in conflict with their parents. Internalizing problems were also more common among adolescents from socioeconomically disadvantaged families and neighborhoods, among those in schools with more suspensions, in students who reported being pressured by peers, and in youth who required more teacher support. It is likely that these experiences left adolescents disengaged from developing social capital from ecological microsystems (e.g., family, school, peers). On the positive side, support from parents and friends and optimism about the future were key assets associated with lower internalizing symptoms and higher self-esteem. Self-esteem was also positively related to religious orientation, school satisfaction, and future optimism. These variables show active engagement with ecological microsystems. The implications and limitations were discussed.

  10. The use of cluster analysis techniques in spaceflight project cost risk estimation

    Fox, G.; Ebbeler, D.; Jorgensen, E.


    Project cost risk is the uncertainty in final project cost, contingent on initial budget, requirements and schedule. For a proposed mission, a dynamic simulation model relying for some of its input on a simple risk elicitation is used to identify and quantify systemic cost risk.

  11. Introducing Risk Management Techniques Within Project Based Software Engineering Courses

    Port, Daniel; Boehm, Barry


    In 1996, USC switched its core two-semester software engineering course from a hypothetical-project, homework-and-exam course based on the Bloom taxonomy of educational objectives (knowledge, comprehension, application, analysis, synthesis, and evaluation). The revised course is a real-client team-project course based on the CRESST model of learning objectives (content understanding, problem solving, collaboration, communication, and self-regulation). We used the CRESST cognitive demands analysis to determine the necessary student skills required for software risk management and the other major project activities, and have been refining the approach over the last 5 years of experience, including revised versions for one-semester undergraduate and graduate project course at Columbia. This paper summarizes our experiences in evolving the risk management aspects of the project course. These have helped us mature more general techniques such as risk-driven specifications, domain-specific simplifier and complicator lists, and the schedule as an independent variable (SAIV) process model. The largely positive results in terms of review of pass / fail rates, client evaluations, product adoption rates, and hiring manager feedback are summarized as well.

  12. Effects of Risk Management Practices on IT Project Success

    Pimchangthong Daranee


    Full Text Available Successful management of an information technology (IT project is the most desirable for all organisations and stakeholders. Many researchers elaborated that risk management is a key part of project management for any project size. Risk management is so critical because it provides project managers with a forward-looking view of both threats and opportunities to improve the project success. The objectives of this research are to explore organisational factors affecting IT project success and risk management practices influencing IT project success. Risk management practices include risk identification, risk analysis, risk response planning, and risk monitoring and control. The IT project success is measured by process performance and product performance. Data are collected from 200 project managers, IT managers, and IT analysts in IT firms through questionnaires and analysed using Independent Sample t-test, One-way ANOVA, and Multiple Linear Regression at the statistical significance level of 0.05. The results show that the differences in organisational types affect IT project success in all aspects, while the differences on organisational sizes affect IT project success in the aspect of product performance and total aspects. Risk identification and risk response planning influence the process performance and the total aspects of IT project success. Risk identification has the highest positive influence on product performance, followed closely by risk response, while risk analysis negatively influences product performance.

  13. IT Project Risk Management Based on Interpretative Structural Model and AHP%基于解释结构模型和AHP的IT项目开发风险管理

    周晓光; 李莉; 高学东


    The risk factors impacting development of IT project are identified,and a model of risk management for IT pro-ject is established based on interpretative structural model.According to the hierarchical relationship of interpretative struc-tural model,the direct and fundamental factors are found out.The risk factors affecting the development of IT project are quantitative analyzed by AHP,and the grade of risk factors are divided.Through the application of a bank’ s collecting and returning project,it shows that the proposed method can effectively deal with the risk of IT project,and it provides a new way to manage the risk of IT project.%识别影响IT项目开发的风险因素,构建基于解释结构模型的IT项目风险管理模型;根据解释结构模型的递阶层次关系,得出IT项目开发风险中的直接因素和根本因素,并根据层次分析法对IT项目开发的风险因素进行定量分析、划分风险等级。通过某银行集中提回项目的应用表明,上述方法可以有效地处理IT项目开发风险,为IT项目的风险管理提供一个新的途径。

  14. Effects of Risk Management Practices on IT Project Success

    Pimchangthong Daranee; Boonjing Veera


    Successful management of an information technology (IT) project is the most desirable for all organisations and stakeholders. Many researchers elaborated that risk management is a key part of project management for any project size. Risk management is so critical because it provides project managers with a forward-looking view of both threats and opportunities to improve the project success. The objectives of this research are to explore organisational factors affecting IT project success and...

  15. Annual effective dose due to residential radon progeny in Sweden: Evaluations based on current risk projections models and on risk estimates from a nation-wide Swedish epidemiological study

    Doi, M. [National Inst. of Radiological Sciences, Chiba (Japan); Lagarde, F. [Karolinska Inst., Stockholm (Sweden). Inst. of Environmental Medicine; Falk, R.; Swedjemark, G.A. [Swedish Radiation Protection Inst., Stockholm (Sweden)


    Effective dose per unit radon progeny exposure to Swedish population in 1992 is estimated by the risk projection model based on the Swedish epidemiological study of radon and lung cancer. The resulting values range from 1.29 - 3.00 mSv/WLM and 2.58 - 5.99 mSv/WLM, respectively. Assuming a radon concentration of 100 Bq/m{sup 3}, an equilibrium factor of 0.4 and an occupancy factor of 0.6 in Swedish houses, the annual effective dose for the Swedish population is estimated to be 0.43 - 1.98 mSv/year, which should be compared to the value of 1.9 mSv/year, according to the UNSCEAR 1993 report. 27 refs, tabs, figs.

  16. Models of Credit Risk Measurement

    Hagiu Alina


    Credit risk is defined as that risk of financial loss caused by failure by the counterparty. According to statistics, for financial institutions, credit risk is much important than market risk, reduced diversification of the credit risk is the main cause of bank failures. Just recently, the banking industry began to measure credit risk in the context of a portfolio along with the development of risk management started with models value at risk (VAR). Once measured, credit risk can be diversif...

  17. Melanoma risk prediction models

    Nikolić Jelena


    Full Text Available Background/Aim. The lack of effective therapy for advanced stages of melanoma emphasizes the importance of preventive measures and screenings of population at risk. Identifying individuals at high risk should allow targeted screenings and follow-up involving those who would benefit most. The aim of this study was to identify most significant factors for melanoma prediction in our population and to create prognostic models for identification and differentiation of individuals at risk. Methods. This case-control study included 697 participants (341 patients and 356 controls that underwent extensive interview and skin examination in order to check risk factors for melanoma. Pairwise univariate statistical comparison was used for the coarse selection of the most significant risk factors. These factors were fed into logistic regression (LR and alternating decision trees (ADT prognostic models that were assessed for their usefulness in identification of patients at risk to develop melanoma. Validation of the LR model was done by Hosmer and Lemeshow test, whereas the ADT was validated by 10-fold cross-validation. The achieved sensitivity, specificity, accuracy and AUC for both models were calculated. The melanoma risk score (MRS based on the outcome of the LR model was presented. Results. The LR model showed that the following risk factors were associated with melanoma: sunbeds (OR = 4.018; 95% CI 1.724- 9.366 for those that sometimes used sunbeds, solar damage of the skin (OR = 8.274; 95% CI 2.661-25.730 for those with severe solar damage, hair color (OR = 3.222; 95% CI 1.984-5.231 for light brown/blond hair, the number of common naevi (over 100 naevi had OR = 3.57; 95% CI 1.427-8.931, the number of dysplastic naevi (from 1 to 10 dysplastic naevi OR was 2.672; 95% CI 1.572-4.540; for more than 10 naevi OR was 6.487; 95%; CI 1.993-21.119, Fitzpatricks phototype and the presence of congenital naevi. Red hair, phototype I and large congenital naevi were

  18. Information technology project risk management in Peru

    Del Carpio Gallegos, Javier; Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos


    This article shows how some principles, uses, and practices of risk management are applied in information technology projects in Peru; in the last four years, in representative sectors like manufacturing, banking, information and communications, academics institutions, construction, government, consulting, services, and others. El presente artículo muestra algunos principios, usos y prácticas de cómo la gestión de riesgos de proyectos de tecnología se ha llevado a cabo en los últimos cuatr...

  19. Representation of drought frequency in Southern South America performed by 14 CMIP5 models. Drought risk implications and perspectives towards future projections

    Rivera, J. A.; Penalba, O. C.


    of the model outputs are inconsistent with the variabilities based on observed precipitation data. This also indicates that monthly and seasonal variabilities of precipitation are misrepresented by the models and this result contributes to the poor representation of the drought frequency patterns. These are the kind of variabilities that could be important for the forecasting of droughts on seasonal scales and could help to a seasonal risk assessment, which is important for the agricultural and hydrological sectors. Moreover, the spatial pattern of annual precipitation are poorly reproduced, with a subestimation of precipitation over La Plata Basin and an overestimation over Patagonia, leeward the Andes. These results prove that GCMs outputs are far to be used for drought risk assessment in the region, given the substantial differences in the frequency patterns. Also, future projections must be evaluated carefully in longer time scale resolutions.

  20. Interconnection of the Degree of Risk and Life Cycle of the “Green Construction” Investment Projects

    Lepehova Natalia; Shoshinov Vitaly


    This article analyses interconnection of the degree of risk and the life cycle of the “green building” investment projects, which is structured according to the life cycle. Main stages of the implementation of investment and construction project were considered, interconnection of the project life cycle and the level of project risk were presented in the form of graphical model, proposed a mathematical model of the risk calculation at different stages of the project life cycle, which is a fun...

  1. Analyzing Integrated Cost-Schedule Risk for Complex Product Systems R&D Projects

    Zhe Xu


    Full Text Available The vast majority of the research efforts in project risk management tend to assess cost risk and schedule risk independently. However, project cost and time are related in reality and the relationship between them should be analyzed directly. We propose an integrated cost and schedule risk assessment model for complex product systems R&D projects. Graphical evaluation review technique (GERT, Monte Carlo simulation, and probability distribution theory are utilized to establish the model. In addition, statistical analysis and regression analysis techniques are employed to analyze simulation outputs. Finally, a complex product systems R&D project as an example is modeled by the proposed approach and the simulation outputs are analyzed to illustrate the effectiveness of the risk assessment model. It seems that integrating cost and schedule risk assessment can provide more reliable risk estimation results.

  2. PPP Project Risk Assessment Model of Whole Life Cycle and Applied Research%PPP项目全寿命周期的风险评估模型及应用研究

    聂明; 陈顺良


    为了加快公共基础服务设施的建设步伐以适应经济建设发展的需要,PPP项目融资模式在全世界的应用已成为一种趋势。然而,PPP项目潜在的风险因素复杂多样,因此,应对PPP项目潜在的风险进行评估。文章首先建立了PPP项目的风险因素指标体系和风险评判的理论模型,然后运用该模型对某PPP项目从全寿命周期的角度进行了分析和评判,最后得出了该PPP项目全寿命周期各个阶段的风险度和项目综合风险度。%In order to quicken the steps of the construction of public infrastructure service to adapt to the needs of the development of economic construction,the PPP project financing model in the application has become a trend all over the world.However,the potential risk factors of PPP project is complicated,therefore, should to evaluate those potential risks.At first,this paper establishes the index system of PPP project risk factors and risk evaluation of the theoretical model,then use the model to analyze and judge one PPP project from the Angle of the whole life cycle,finally obtain the each risk degree of the total PPP project life cycle stages and the comprehensive risk degrees.

  3. Determining optimum climate drivers for weather risk projections

    Chavez, Erik; Kilian, Markus; Lucarini, Valerio


    In spite of the exponential increase of available data, the uncertainties of projections of weather variability, especially at local scale, have not decreased. This poses important challenges for the design of weather risk management strategies in various vulnerable sectors such as energy or agricultural production. This paper focuses on a two step methodology to enable projection of local weather risk in future climate scenarios. First, we focus on the optimum selection of drivers of regional weather patterns in order to project local weather variability risk estimates in future climate scenarios. This is carried out through the use of stochastic downscaling enabling conditional modelling of pixel-level distributions of weather variables as a function of inter-annual and inter-decadal climate variability drivers. Secondly, a statistical and physically-based climate model selection methodology is developed in order to produce a sub-ensemble of inter-annual and decadal variability drivers dataset that allows accurate and robust projection of weather variability. The case study of South Eastern Africa will be used. Datasets retrieved from CMIP5 repository in three RCP scenarios (historical, 8.5 and 2.5) are used as well as observed historical weather data.

  4. Proposal of New PRORISK Model for GSD Projects

    M. Rizwan Jameel Qureshi


    Full Text Available The level of complexity and risks associated with software are increasing exponentially because of competing environment especially in geographically distributed projects. Global software development (GSD face challenges like distance, communication and coordination challenges. The coordination and communication challenges are the main causes of failure in GSD. Project Oriented Risk Management (PRORISK is one of the models to address the importance of risk management and project management processes in standard software projects. However, existing model is not proposed to handle GSD associated risks. This warrants the proposal of new PRORISK model to manage the risks of GSD. Survey is used as a research design to validate the proposed solution. We anticipate that the proposed solution will help the software companies to cater the risks associated with GSD.

  5. Development of integrated software project planning model

    Manalif, Ekananta; Capretz, Luiz Fernando; Ho, Danny


    As the most uncertain and complex project when compared to other types of projects, software development project is highly depend on the result of software project planning phase that helping project managers by predicting the project demands with respect to the budgeting, scheduling, and the allocation of resources. The two main activities in software project planning are effort estimation and risk assessment which has to be executed together because the accuracy of the effort estimation is ...

  6. Risk Determination, Prioritization, and Classifying in Construction Project Case Study: Gharb Tehran Commercial-Administrative Complex

    Azadeh Sohrabinejad


    Full Text Available Construction projects play an important role in infrastructure projects in developing countries. According to type, size, and complexity of the project, the number and importance of each risk could be different and many projects cannot reach the project goals due to exposure to multiple risks. Many papers have been published on the subject of risk management in construction projects; unfortunately most of them have not been implemented in practical conditions. The aim of this study is to identify and prioritize risks in construction projects. The classical approach used probability and impact for risk assessment, but these criteria do not sufficiently address all aspects of projects risks and there might be a relationship between different criteria. This study proposes the hierarchical dependencies between criteria. A case study of construction project is presented to illustrate performance and usage of the proposed model. Utilizing library studies and interview with experts, managers, and specialists, decision criteria were identified through brain storming. Risks were categorized by the experts into eleven risks. Important risks were evaluated based on the fuzzy ANP, fuzzy DEMATEL, and fuzzy TOPSIS methods. The proposed model is more suitable than the traditional decision-making methods in prioritizing risk concerning cost, time, and quality.

  7. Bayesian-based Project Monitoring: Framework Development and Model Testing

    Budi Hartono


    Full Text Available During project implementation, risk becomes an integral part of project monitoring. Therefore. a tool that could dynamically include elements of risk in project progress monitoring is needed. This objective of this study is to develop a general framework that addresses such a concern. The developed framework consists of three interrelated major building blocks, namely: Risk Register (RR, Bayesian Network (BN, and Project Time Networks (PTN for dynamic project monitoring. RR is used to list and to categorize identified project risks. PTN is utilized for modeling the relationship between project activities. BN is used to reflect the interdependence among risk factors and to bridge RR and PTN. A residential development project is chosen as a working example and the result shows that the proposed framework has been successfully applied. The specific model of the development project is also successfully developed and is used to monitor the project progress. It is shown in this study that the proposed BN-based model provides superior performance in terms of forecast accuracy compared to the extant models.

  8. Projected Flood Risks in China Based on CMIP5

    XU Ying; ZHANG Bing; ZHOU Bo-Tao; DONG Si-Yan; YU Li; LI Rou-Ke


    Based on the simulations of 22 CMIP5 models in combination with socio-economic data and terrain elevation data, the spatial distribution of risk levels of flood disaster and the vulnerability to flood hazards in China are projected under the RCP8.5 for the near term period (2016-2035), medium term period (2046-2065) and long term period (2080-2099), respectively. The results show that regions with high flood hazard levels are mainly located in Southeast China, while the vulnerability to flood hazards is high in eastern China. Under the RCP8.5 greenhouse gas emissions scenario, future high flood risk levels will mainly appear in the eastern part of Sichuan, in major part of East China, and in the provinces of Hebei, Beijing, and Tianjin. The major cities in Northeast China, some areas in Shaanxi and Shanxi, as well as the coastal areas in southeastern China will also encounter high flood risks. Compared with the baseline period, the regional flood risk levels will increase towards the end of the 21st century, although the occurrences of floods change little. Due to the coarse resolution of the climate models and the indistinct methodology for determining the weight coefficients, large uncertainty still exists in the projection of flood risks.

  9. Study on Risk Approaches in Software Development Projects

    Claudiu BRANDAS


    Full Text Available Risk approaches in project development led to the integration in the IT project management methodologies and software development of activities and processes of risk management. The diversity and the advanced level of the used technologies in IT projects with increasing com-plexity leads to an exponential diversification of risk factors.The purpose of this research is to identify the level of the risk approach in IT projects both at the IT project management and software development methodologies level and the level of the perception of IT project man-agers, IT managers and IT analysts in Romanian IT companies. Thus, we want to determine the correlation between the use of a project management or software development methodology and the overall level of risk perceived by the project managers using these methodologies.

  10. An integrated methodology for assessment and selection of the project risk response actions.

    Seyedhoseini, Seyed Mohammad; Noori, Siamak; Hatefi, Mohammad Ali


    In a systematic process of project risk management, after risk assessment is implemented, the risk analysts encounter the phase of assessment and selection of the project risk response actions (RA). As indicated by many researchers, there are less systematic and well-developed solutions in the area of risk response assessment and selection. The present article introduces a methodology including a modeling approach with the objective of selecting a set of RA that minimizes the undesirable deviation from achieving the project scope. The developed objective function comprises the three key success criteria of a project, namely, time, quality, and cost. Our model integrates overall project management into the project risk response planning (P2RP). Furthermore, the proposed model stresses on an equivalent importance for both "risk" and "response." We believe that applying the proposed model helps the project risk analyst in most effective and efficient manner dealing with his or her complicated RA selection problems. The application of the proposed model was implemented in projects in the construction industry in which it showed tremendous time, cost, and quality improvements.

  11. A Novel Method for Assessing and Optimizing Software Project Process Based Risk Control


    A new approach for assessing and optimizing software project process based on software risk control pre-sented, which evaluates and optimizes software project process from the view of controlling the software project risks. A model for optimizing software risk control is given, a discrete optimization algorithm based on dynamic programming is proposed and an example of using above method to solve a problem is also included in this paper. By improving the old passive post-project control into an active effective pre-action, this new method can greatly promote the possibility of success of software projects.


    BRANDAS Claudiu


    Full Text Available Risk is identified in project management literature as an important factor influencing IT projects success, and it is relevant for both academic and practitionersn#8217; communities. The paper presents the past and current approaches to risk management in IT projects. The objective of this paper is to compare the different approaches and relate them to existing practices. Project management literature and practice have brought different approaches to risk management, and as a result, many projects ended in failure. We present how risk management is considered in the literature, and we compare the main two approaches: the evaluation approach and the management approach. The contingency approach does not consider risk management to be a specific process as it is an embedded process in the other project management processes. Then, we present the main practices in risk management. The methodology applied is based on documentary study review and analysis of the concepts used by the literature. We analyzed the literature published between 1978 and 2011 from the main journals for IT project management and found out that the essence of project management is risk management. The risk management practices have a considerable influence on stakeholdersn#8217; perception of project success. But, regardless of the chosen approach, a standard method for identifying, assessing, and responding to risks should be included in any project as this influences the outcome of the project.

  13. Identification and assessment of risk factors affecting construction projects

    Mohamed Sayed Bassiony Ahmed Abd El-Karim


    Unexpected increase in cost and delays in construction projects are caused by owner, contractor, environments, etc. in which several types of risk factors may occur concurrently. The effect of cost overrun and schedule overrun do not only influence the construction industry but the overall economy as well. Even though construction project increasing in cost and schedule has received extensive attention of researchers, but because of continuous changes and development in the field, the study considered of added value to the construction industry in Egypt, in addition to risk strategy and plan analysis. In order to meet the deadline of a project and due to the complex nature of construction projects, cost and scheduling should be flexible enough to accommodate changes without negatively affecting the overall project cost and duration. As such, the objectives of the presented research in this paper are to identify, study, and assess the effect of the factors that affect cost and time contingency. Data are collected from sixteen construction companies in Egypt. The collected data, output charts and analyses spreadsheets will be used for the development of computerized model built by the authors with identification abbreviation RIAM.

  14. Risk assessment in energy efficiency projects; Gerenciamento de riscos em projetos de eficiencia energetica

    Aragao Neto, Raymundo Moniz de


    This paper aims to present processes related to risk management in energy efficiency projects, delivered in a performance contracting basis. Introductory comments will be presented about the considered project model, emphasizing the necessity of proper processes of risk management and evaluation and their treatment according methodology developed by PMI - Project Management Institute, grouped in its publication PMBOK - Project Management Body of Knowledge. A hypothetical project will be demonstrated, but similar to the Brazilian Body of Knowledge. A hypothetical project will be demonstrated, but similar to the Brazilian market reality, as a form of illustrating the considered methodology.

  15. Risk management in methodologies of information technology and communications projects

    Jonathan Carrillo


    Full Text Available (Received: 2013/10/02 - Accepted: 2013/12/13At present there are methodologies that have several alternatives and methods to manage projects of Information and Communication Technologies. However, these do not cover a solution for the technology events that can occur in the industry, government, education, among others. In the technology market there are several models to identify and analyze risks according to relevant aspects of their area of specialty e.g. projects, in software development, communications, information security and business alignment. For this reason, this research conducted an evaluation of risk management activities of the methodologies used mostly to know which of them includes more correspondence with basic elements of IT using a rating scale.

  16. Methodology evaluation of innovative projects under risk and uncertainty


    Full Text Available This article deals with problems connected with the assessment of innovative projects in the context of risk and uncertainty, topical issues of evaluation of innovative projects at the present stage of development of the Russian economy. By the example of the solution of the "crossing the river" is considering the possibility of using hierarchical models to address it. In what follows, and compares the priorities of different groups of factors are given by calculating the overall costs and benefits. The paper provides a rationale for combined use of four aspects: the beneficial aspects of the decision (the benefits and opportunities and negative (costs and risks that may lead to the decision in question.

  17. Alpha-risk: a European project on the quantification of risks associated with multiple radiation exposures

    Laurier, D.; Monchaux, G.; Tirmarche, M. [Institute for Radiological Protection and Nuclear Safety, 92 - Fontenay aux Roses (France); Darby, S. [Cancer Research UK, Oxford (United Kingdom); Cardis, E. [International Agency for Research on Cancer, 69 - Lyon (France); Binks, K. [Westlakes Scientific Consulti ng Ltd, Moor Row (United Kingdom); Hofmann, W. [Salzburg Univ. (Austria); Muirhead, C. [Health Protection Agency, Chilton (United Kingdom)


    The Alpha-Risk research project is being conducted within the Sixth European Framework Programme (EC-FP6, 2005 -2008). It aims to improve the quantification of risks associated with multiple exposures, taking into account the contribution of different radionuclides and external exposure using specific organ dose calculations. The Alpha-Risk Consortium involves 18 partners from 9 countries, and is coordinated by the IRSN. Its composition allows a multidisciplinary collaboration between researchers in epidemiology, dosimetry, statistics, modelling and risk assessment. Alpha-Risk brings together major epidemiological studies in Europe, which are able to evaluate long-term health effects of internal exposure from radionuclides. It includes large size cohort and case-control studies, with accurate registration of individual annual exposures: uranium miner studies, studies on lung cancer and indoor radon exposure, and studies of lung cancer and leukaemia among nuclear workers exposed to transuranic nuclides (mainly uranium and plutonium), for whom organ doses will be reconstructed individually. The contribution of experts in dosimetry will allow the calculation of organ doses in presence of multiple exposures (radon decay products, uranium dust and external gamma exposure). Expression of the risk per unit organ dose will make it possible to compare results with those from other populations exposed to external radiation. The multidisciplinary approach of Alpha-Risk promotes the development of coherent and improved methodological approaches regarding risk modelling. A specific work - package is dedicated to the integration of results and their use for risk assessment, especially for radon. Alpha-Risk will contribute to a better understanding of long-term health risks following chronic low doses from internal exposures. The project also has the great potential to help resolve major public health concerns about the effects of low and/or protracted exposures, especially

  18. Breast Cancer Risk Assessment SAS Macro (Gail Model)

    A SAS macro (commonly referred to as the Gail Model) that projects absolute risk of invasive breast cancer according to NCI’s Breast Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (BCRAT) algorithm for specified race/ethnic groups and age intervals.

  19. Integrated Risk Management Within NASA Programs/Projects

    Connley, Warren; Rad, Adrian; Botzum, Stephen


    As NASA Project Risk Management activities continue to evolve, the need to successfully integrate risk management processes across the life cycle, between functional disciplines, stakeholders, various management policies, and within cost, schedule and performance requirements/constraints become more evident and important. Today's programs and projects are complex undertakings that include a myriad of processes, tools, techniques, management arrangements and other variables all of which must function together in order to achieve mission success. The perception and impact of risk may vary significantly among stakeholders and may influence decisions that may have unintended consequences on the project during a future phase of the life cycle. In these cases, risks may be unintentionally and/or arbitrarily transferred to others without the benefit of a comprehensive systemic risk assessment. Integrating risk across people, processes, and project requirements/constraints serves to enhance decisions, strengthen communication pathways, and reinforce the ability of the project team to identify and manage risks across the broad spectrum of project management responsibilities. The ability to identify risks in all areas of project management increases the likelihood a project will identify significant issues before they become problems and allows projects to make effective and efficient use of shrinking resources. By getting a total team integrated risk effort, applying a disciplined and rigorous process, along with understanding project requirements/constraints provides the opportunity for more effective risk management. Applying an integrated approach to risk management makes it possible to do a better job at balancing safety, cost, schedule, operational performance and other elements of risk. This paper will examine how people, processes, and project requirements/constraints can be integrated across the project lifecycle for better risk management and ultimately improve the

  20. A Procedural Model for Process Improvement Projects

    Kreimeyer, Matthias;Daniilidis, Charampos;Lindemann, Udo


    Process improvement projects are of a complex nature. It is therefore necessary to use experience and knowledge gained in previous projects when executing a new project. Yet, there are few pragmatic planning aids, and transferring the institutional knowledge from one project to the next is difficult. This paper proposes a procedural model that extends common models for project planning to enable staff on a process improvement project to adequately plan their projects, enabling them to documen...

  1. Uncertainty Quantification in Climate Modeling and Projection

    Qian, Yun; Jackson, Charles; Giorgi, Filippo; Booth, Ben; Duan, Qingyun; Forest, Chris; Higdon, Dave; Hou, Z. Jason; Huerta, Gabriel


    The projection of future climate is one of the most complex problems undertaken by the scientific community. Although scientists have been striving to better understand the physical basis of the climate system and to improve climate models, the overall uncertainty in projections of future climate has not been significantly reduced (e.g., from the IPCC AR4 to AR5). With the rapid increase of complexity in Earth system models, reducing uncertainties in climate projections becomes extremely challenging. Since uncertainties always exist in climate models, interpreting the strengths and limitations of future climate projections is key to evaluating risks, and climate change information for use in Vulnerability, Impact, and Adaptation (VIA) studies should be provided with both well-characterized and well-quantified uncertainty. The workshop aimed at providing participants, many of them from developing countries, information on strategies to quantify the uncertainty in climate model projections and assess the reliability of climate change information for decision-making. The program included a mixture of lectures on fundamental concepts in Bayesian inference and sampling, applications, and hands-on computer laboratory exercises employing software packages for Bayesian inference, Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods, and global sensitivity analyses. The lectures covered a range of scientific issues underlying the evaluation of uncertainties in climate projections, such as the effects of uncertain initial and boundary conditions, uncertain physics, and limitations of observational records. Progress in quantitatively estimating uncertainties in hydrologic, land surface, and atmospheric models at both regional and global scales was also reviewed. The application of Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) concepts to coupled climate system models is still in its infancy. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) multi-model ensemble currently represents the primary data for

  2. Projected Flood Risks in China based on CMIP5

    Xu, Ying


    Based on the simulations from 22 CMIP5 models and in combination with data on population, GDP, arable land, and terrain elevation, the spatial distributions of the flood risk levels are calculated and analyzed under RCP8.5 for the baseline period (1986-2005), the near term future period (2016-2035), the middle term future period (2046-2065), and the long term future period (2080-2099). (1) Areas with higher flood hazard risk levels in the future are concentrated in southeastern China, and the areas with the risk level III continue to expand. The major changes in flood hazard risks will occur in the middle and long term future. (2) In future, the areas of high vulnerability to flood hazards will be located in China's eastern region. In the middle and late 21st century, the extent of the high vulnerability area will expand eastward and its intensity will gradually increase. The highest vulnerability values are found in the provinces of Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Henan, Anhui, Shandong, Shanghai, Jiangsu, and in parts of the Pearl River Delta. Furthermore, the major cities in northeast China, as well as Wuhan, Changsha and Nanchang are highly vulnerable. (3) The regions with high flood risk levels will be located in eastern China, in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River and stretching northward to Beijing and Tianjin. High-risk flood areas are also occurring in major cities in Northeast China, in some parts of Shaanxi and Shanxi, and in some coastal areas in Southeast China. (4) Compared to the baseline period, the high flood risks will increase on a regional level towards the end of the 21st century, although the areas of flood hazards show little variation. In this paper, the projected future flood risks for different periods were analyzed under the RCP8.5 emission scenarios. By comparing the results with the simulations under the RCP 2.6 and RCP 4.5 scenarios, both scenarios show no differences in the spatial distribution, but in the intensity of flood

  3. On Best Practices for Risk Management in Complex Projects

    Dan BENTA


    Full Text Available Risk management shall be proactive. This is one of the key preliminaries to cope with the challenges of complex projects. An overarching and consistent view on project risks and uncertainties is necessary to follow a holistic approach in project risk management. Uncertainty is inevitable since projects are unique and temporary undertakings based on assumptions and constraints, delivering project results to multiple stakeholders with different requirements. Project management can be seen as an attempt to control this uncertain environment, through the use of structured and disciplined techniques such as estimating, planning, cost control, task allocation, earned value analysis, monitoring, and review meetings. Each of these elements of project management has a role in defining or controlling inherent variability in projects. Project risk management provides approaches by which uncertainty can be understood, assessed, and managed within projects. A number of associations (e.g., Project Management Institute – PMI®, International Project Management Association – IPMA,or Network of Nordic Project Management Associations - NORDNET work constantly in acquiring, improving, and standardizing best practices in project management.Based on the industrial practice, this paper outlines strategies to identify, prioritize, and mitigate risks for achievement of project’ or organizational objectives.

  4. Risk Allocation in Public Private Partnership (PPP) Project: A Review on Risk Factors

    Nur Alkaf Abd Karim


    It is important for the public and private sectors to establish effective risk allocation strategies for Public-Private Partnership (PPP) projects. According to Malaysia’s PPP Guideline, one of the key feature or characteristics is to optimal sharing of risk whereby risk is allocated to the party who is the best able to manage. This mean that in PPP itself, it emphasis risk allocation in construction project. This paper presents on reviewing the risk factors of PPP construction project by map...

  5. The Improvement Model of Construction Project Risk Management Capability Based on Maturity%基于成熟度的工程项目风险管理能力提升模型研究



    本研究从建筑企业的视角,建立起包括属性、水平和范围三个维度的工程项目风险管理成熟度模型(CPRM3),提出了建筑企业项目风险管理能力的分阶段持续式提升策略,阐明了CPRM3模型的运行机制,构建了项目风险管理成熟度评价指标体系和基于雷达图的评价模型。%In this study, from the perspective of the construction enterprises, construction project risk management maturity model (CPRM3) is built. The model includes three dimensions: attributes, arranges and levels. The model provides a method to improve the risk management capability of construction enterprises. The strategy for construction enterprises improving their risk management capabilities and the operation mechanism of the model are put forward. Assessment index system of the project risk management maturity and the assessment method based on radar chart is brought forward.

  6. An Exploratory Study of Risk Factors for Implementing Service-Oriented IS Projects

    Chang, Hsin-Lu; Lue, Chia-Pei

    For IS project managers, how to implement the projects successfully is always a challenge. Further, as more and more enterprises start to develop service-oriented IS projects, it is essential to assess the sources and impacts of relevant risks. This research aimed at identifying risk factors related to service-oriented IS projects and analyzing the impact of these risk factors. Applying the SIMM (service integrated maturity model) proposed by IBM, customer service systems were selected to justify the research framework. Result showed that the risk factors influencing the adoption of service-oriented systems were insufficient technology planning, lack of expertise, ineffective project governance, and organizational misalignment, listed in the order of strength of influence. The findings of this research is expected to assist managers realize the risks and the importance of these risks that have to be noticed and controlled when making decisions on service-oriented systems adoption.

  7. Risk Estimation Modeling and Feasibility Testing for a Mobile eHealth Intervention for Binge Drinking Among Young People: The D-ARIANNA (Digital-Alcohol RIsk Alertness Notifying Network for Adolescents and young adults) Project.

    Carrà, Giuseppe; Crocamo, Cristina; Schivalocchi, Alessandro; Bartoli, Francesco; Carretta, Daniele; Brambilla, Giulia; Clerici, Massimo


    Binge drinking is common among young people but often relevant risk factors are not recognized. eHealth apps, attractive for young people, may be useful to enhance awareness of this problem. We aimed at developing a current risk estimation model for binge drinking, incorporated into an eHealth app--D-ARIANNA (Digital-Alcohol RIsk Alertness Notifying Network for Adolescents and young adults)--for young people. A longitudinal approach with phase 1 (risk estimation), phase 2 (design), and phase 3 (feasibility) was followed. Risk/protective factors identified from the literature were used to develop a current risk estimation model for binge drinking. Relevant odds ratios were subsequently pooled through meta-analytic techniques with a random-effects model, deriving weighted estimates to be introduced in a final model. A set of questions, matching identified risk factors, were nested in a questionnaire and assessed for wording, content, and acceptability in focus groups involving 110 adolescents and young adults. Ten risk factors (5 modifiable) and 2 protective factors showed significant associations with binge drinking and were included in the model. Their weighted coefficients ranged between -0.71 (school proficiency) and 1.90 (cannabis use). The model, nested in an eHealth app questionnaire, provides in percent an overall current risk score, accompanied by appropriate images. Factors that mostly contribute are shown in summary messages. Minor changes have been realized after focus groups review. Most of the subjects (74%) regarded the eHealth app as helpful to assess binge drinking risk. We could produce an evidence-based eHealth app for young people, evaluating current risk for binge drinking. Its effectiveness will be tested in a large trial.

  8. A proposed model for construction project management ...

    The lack of a proper communication skills model for project management may ... done to identify the most important project management communication skills and applications of communication that effective project managers should possess.

  9. Project management with dynamic scheduling baseline scheduling, risk analysis and project control

    Vanhoucke, Mario


    The topic of this book is known as dynamic scheduling, and is used to refer to three dimensions of project management and scheduling: the construction of a baseline schedule and the analysis of a project schedule's risk as preparation of the project control phase during project progress. This dynamic scheduling point of view implicitly assumes that the usability of a project's baseline schedule is rather limited and only acts as a point of reference in the project life cycle.

  10. Project management best practices: forging win-win partnerships and mitigating power project risk

    Trowsdale, R. [EPCOR Power Development Corp. (Canada)


    This paper discusses aspects of project management to mitigate power project risk. end-to-end project development involves development phase, permitting phase, implementation phase, and operational phase. Each phase involves a number of different elements. In renewable energy project good management requires maintaining project discipline and schedule throughout all phases. Project success requires commercial competitiveness, fuel availability, power sales contracts, stake holder support, permitting, effective execution, construction and good technical performance.

  11. Risk Evaluation of Qinghai–Tibet Power Grid Interconnection Project for Sustainability

    Cunbin Li


    Full Text Available The Qinghai–Tibet power grid interconnection project is the first power transmission project with the highest altitude, longest transmission lines, longest distance running across the plateau frozen ground, and highest iron tower in the world. The risk evaluation on it can identify the overall risk level and key risk factors, which can reduce risk-induced loss and promote sustainable construction. In this paper, the risk of the Qinghai–Tibet power grid interconnection project was evaluated by employing a matter-element extension model under a fuzzy environment. After building the risk evaluation index system, the performances and weights of criteria were qualitatively judged by three groups of experts in different fields, and then the risk of the Qinghai–Tibet power grid interconnection project was rated by employing matter-element extension model. Meanwhile, the sensitivity analysis was performed to identify key risk criteria. The empirical results indicate the risk of the Qinghai–Tibet power grid interconnection project belongs to the “stronger” grade, tending to the “strongest” grade. “Social stability risk”, “altitude sickness seizure risk”, “permafrost-induced risk”, “severe weather-induced risk”, and “ecological destruction risk” are key sub-criteria, which should be paid more attention to when taking risk management measures. Finally, some countermeasures for key risks of the Qinghai–Tibet power grid interconnection project were given. The findings in this paper can provide references for engineering managers and related stakeholders.

  12. Autonomous, In-Flight Crew Health Risk Management for Exploration-Class Missions: Leveraging the Integrated Medical Model for the Exploration Medical System Demonstration Project

    Butler, D. J.; Kerstman, E.; Saile, L.; Myers, J.; Walton, M.; Lopez, V.; McGrath, T.


    The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) captures organizational knowledge across the space medicine, training, operations, engineering, and research domains. IMM uses this knowledge in the context of a mission and crew profile to forecast risks to crew health and mission success. The IMM establishes a quantified, statistical relationship among medical conditions, risk factors, available medical resources, and crew health and mission outcomes. These relationships may provide an appropriate foundation for developing an in-flight medical decision support tool that helps optimize the use of medical resources and assists in overall crew health management by an autonomous crew with extremely limited interactions with ground support personnel and no chance of resupply.

  13. 不完全信息条件下PPP项目公私共担型风险分配的博弈模型%Game Model for PPP Project Joint Risk Allocation under the Incomplete Information Condition

    李皓; 王洪强


    PPP项目是未来城市基础设施建设的主要方向,合理的风险分配直接影响PPP项目的发展。从风险的承担方来看,可分为单方承担和公私共担。本文结合PPP项目不完全信息的实际情形,运用讨价还价博弈理论,分别构建了公私双方地位对称和地位非对称下PPP项目共担型风险分配的讨价还价博弈模型,并且得出两种情况下的子博弈精炼纳什均衡。该文的研究成果不仅在理论上丰富了PPP项目风险分配的研究,而且对促进PPP项目的发展也具有一定的现实意义。%PPP model is becoming an important development direction for the city infrastructure construction, rational risk allocation will influence the development of PPP projects directly. From risk undertaker's perspective, unilateral risk and joint risk can be divided. This paper combines the realistic incomplete information status and uses bargaining game theory to respectively constructe the bargaining game model of joint risk allocation under symmetry of status and asymmetry of status and find the sub-game perfect Nash equilibrium. This paper not only enriches the theory research of the risk allocation of PPP project,but also has some meanings in promoting the development of PPP project.

  14. Custom v. Standardized Risk Models

    Zura Kakushadze


    Full Text Available We discuss when and why custom multi-factor risk models are warranted and give source code for computing some risk factors. Pension/mutual funds do not require customization but standardization. However, using standardized risk models in quant trading with much shorter holding horizons is suboptimal: (1 longer horizon risk factors (value, growth, etc. increase noise trades and trading costs; (2 arbitrary risk factors can neutralize alpha; (3 “standardized” industries are artificial and insufficiently granular; (4 normalization of style risk factors is lost for the trading universe; (5 diversifying risk models lowers P&L correlations, reduces turnover and market impact, and increases capacity. We discuss various aspects of custom risk model building.

  15. Identification of Risks Pertaining to Abandoned Housing Projects in Malaysia

    Hamzah Abdul-Rahman


    Full Text Available Housing industry is one of the most dynamic, risky, and challenging industries. In Malaysia, this industry has a poor reputation for managing risks, with many major projects failing to be completed within the allotted time. Due to the inherent risks involved in construction projects, it is essential to recognize the risks that cause problems associated with abandoned housing projects. Therefore, this study aims to identify the risks that contribute to issues of abandoned housing projects and to propose mitigation strategies. The methodologies used in this study are combination of qualitative and quantitative methods of literature review, questionnaire survey, and interview. The results show that many risks are involved in housing project, including risks related to environmental impacts, construction, politics, law, management, finance, materials, and economy, of which the probability of risks from unexpected ground condition, project delays, bureaucracy, contractual disputes between developer and landlord, weakness in management by inexperience developer, and financial crisis is very high. It was also found that all relevant parties involved in housing industry are required to have extensive cooperation in advance and should perform systematic risk management strategies in order to mitigate the risks leading to problems associated with abandoned housing projects.

  16. The Risks of Investments in Transport Infrastructure Projects

    O. Pokorná


    Full Text Available Investment decisions should not be taken without an in-depth analysis of the risks. This is an important stage in project preparation and should be performed simultaneously with the planning of the financial operations. Infrastructure development requires that project risks and responsibilities be assigned to the public or private entity that is best able to manage them. The risks and their financial impacts are usually not quantified equally by all parties. Each party views the given risks according to the guarantees provided. These guarantees are related to the form of participation in the project.

  17. RASOR Project: Rapid Analysis and Spatialisation of Risk, from Hazard to Risk using EO data

    Rossi, Lauro; Rudari, Roberto


    Over recent decades, there has been a dramatic rise in disasters, and their impact on human populations. Escalation in complexities in our societies is making risks increasingly difficult to understand and changing the ways in which hazards interact with each other. The Rapid Analysis and Spatialisation and Of Risk (RASOR) project developed a multi-hazard risk analysis platform to support the full cycle of disaster management. RASOR provides up-to-date hazard information across floods and geohazards, up-to-date exposure data from known sources and newly-generated EO-based data, and characterised quantitatively their vulnerabilities. RASOR also adapts the newly-developed 12m resolution global TanDEM-X Digital Elevation Model (DEM) to risk management applications, using it as a base layer to develop specific disaster scenarios. RASOR overlays archived and near real-time very high resolution optical and radar satellite data, combined with in situ data for both global and local applications. A scenario-driven query system allows users to project situations into the future and model multi-hazard risk both before and during an event. Applications with regards to different case study sites are presented in order to illustrate the platform potential.

  18. Enterprise Risk Management Models

    Olson, David L


    Enterprise risk management has always been important. However, the events of the 21st Century have made it even more critical. The top level of business management became suspect after scandals at ENRON, WorldCom, and other business entities. Financially, many firms experienced difficulties from bubbles. The problems of interacting cultures demonstrated risk from terrorism as well, with numerous terrorist attacks, to include 9/11 in the U.S. Risks can arise in many facets of business. Businesses in fact exist to cope with risk in their area of specialization. Financial risk management has focu

  19. Interconnection of the Degree of Risk and Life Cycle of the “Green Construction” Investment Projects

    Lepehova Natalia


    Full Text Available This article analyses interconnection of the degree of risk and the life cycle of the “green building” investment projects, which is structured according to the life cycle. Main stages of the implementation of investment and construction project were considered, interconnection of the project life cycle and the level of project risk were presented in the form of graphical model, proposed a mathematical model of the risk calculation at different stages of the project life cycle, which is a function of depending on the different risk parameters.

  20. Process simulation and parametric modeling for strategic project management

    Morales, Peter J


    Process Simulation and Parametric Modeling for Strategic Project Management will offer CIOs, CTOs and Software Development Managers, IT Graduate Students an introduction to a set of technologies that will help them understand how to better plan software development projects, manage risk and have better insight into the complexities of the software development process.A novel methodology will be introduced that allows a software development manager to better plan and access risks in the early planning of a project.  By providing a better model for early software development estimation and softw

  1. Modeling Uncertainty when Estimating IT Projects Costs

    Winter, Michel; Mirbel, Isabelle; Crescenzo, Pierre


    In the current economic context, optimizing projects' cost is an obligation for a company to remain competitive in its market. Introducing statistical uncertainty in cost estimation is a good way to tackle the risk of going too far while minimizing the project budget: it allows the company to determine the best possible trade-off between estimated cost and acceptable risk. In this paper, we present new statistical estimators derived from the way IT companies estimate the projects' costs. In t...

  2. Space market model development project

    Bishop, Peter C.


    The objectives of the research program, Space Market Model Development Project, (Phase 1) were: (1) to study the need for business information in the commercial development of space; and (2) to propose a design for an information system to meet the identified needs. Three simultaneous research strategies were used in proceeding toward this goal: (1) to describe the space business information which currently exists; (2) to survey government and business representatives on the information they would like to have; and (3) to investigate the feasibility of generating new economical information about the space industry.

  3. 交通基础设施PPP项目智能风险评价模型研究%Research on the Model of Intelligent Risk Evaluation of the Transport Public-private-partnership Projects

    蔡晓琰; 周国光


    文章基于模糊综合评价方法和神经网络模型,在分析影响交通基础设施PPP项目运营的主要风险并建立其风险评价指标体系的基础上,提出交通基础设施PPP项目的智能风险评价模型。针对交通基础设施PPP项目风险评价的常用方法对主观经验依赖较强、不同项目间评价结果的可借鉴性不强的现状,本研究的评价模型能通过自主学习模糊综合评价的评价结果而实现风险评价智能化。通过实证分析,证实交通基础设施PPP项目智能风险评价模型具有可行性,并建议根据项目运营情况完善风险评价体系、统一不同项目间的模糊综合评价的评分标准、建立和完善智能风险评价模型的训练样本数据库以及根据项目实际风险情况及时调整评价分数来提高智能模型精度等建议,以期为交通基础设施PPP项目的智能风险评价提供理论指导。%Based on the analysis of the main risks of Public-private-partnership(PPP) projects for transportations , the risk evalua-tion system of Public-private-partnership(PPP) projects for transports is established in this paper, and then the intelligent risk evaluat-ion model of PPP projects is provided based on the fuzzy synthetic evaluation and artificial neural networks. The model suggested aims to improve the situation that the current risk evaluating methods mostly rely on the experts' subjective experience , which could realize the intelligent evaluation of risk of transport PPP projects by learning from the results of the fuzzy synthetic evaluation. The empirical test shows that the intelligent risk evaluation model is feasible. Moreover, some suggestions, such as supplementing the risk evaluation system according to the PPPs' operations, unifying the standards for risk evaluation system, building and completing the database of samples for the model training, and adjusting the scores of evaluation to perfect the model accuracy

  4. Risk Management In Construction Projects Of Developing Countries

    Divya Gupta


    Full Text Available Managing risks in construction projects has been perceived as a very important management process so as to accomplish the undertaking goals as far as time, cost, quality, safety and environmental sustainability. Projects have become shared effort of multiple parties and construction industry is a good example of an area, where the project outcome is delivered in an extremely complex actor network. By adopting risk management, savings’ potentials can be realized in construction projects. For this reason, consideration of the risk management process is worthwhile for project managers as well as real estate developers. The implementation of risk management system in construction projects must be oriented towards the progress of the project and pervade all areas, functions and processes of the project. For analyzing the levels of various risk factors in construction industry, questionnaire surveys were used to collect data. Based on a comprehensive assessment of the likelihood of occurrence of various risks and their impacts on the project objectives, this paper identifies twenty major risk factors. This research found that these risks are mainly related to (in ranking contractors, clients and designers, with a few related to government bodies, subcontractors/suppliers and external issues. Among them, “Financial Risk” is recognized to influence all project destinations maximally, whereas working in hot areas, closure, defective design and delayed payments on contract are also some important risk factors. This research also found that these risks spread through the whole project life cycle and many risks occur in more than one phase, with the construction stage as the most risky phase, followed by the feasibility stage. It is concluded that clients, designers and government bodies must work cooperatively from the feasibility phase onwards to address potential risks in time. Also contractors and subcontractors with robust construction and

  5. Safety risk assessment using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) during planning and budgeting of construction projects.

    Aminbakhsh, Saman; Gunduz, Murat; Sonmez, Rifat


    The inherent and unique risks on construction projects quite often present key challenges to contractors. Health and safety risks are among the most significant risks in construction projects since the construction industry is characterized by a relatively high injury and death rate compared to other industries. In construction project management, safety risk assessment is an important step toward identifying potential hazards and evaluating the risks associated with the hazards. Adequate prioritization of safety risks during risk assessment is crucial for planning, budgeting, and management of safety related risks. In this paper, a safety risk assessment framework is presented based on the theory of cost of safety (COS) model and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The main contribution of the proposed framework is that it presents a robust method for prioritization of safety risks in construction projects to create a rational budget and to set realistic goals without compromising safety. The framework provides a decision tool for the decision makers to determine the adequate accident/injury prevention investments while considering the funding limits. The proposed safety risk framework is illustrated using a real-life construction project and the advantages and limitations of the framework are discussed. Copyright © 2013 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Risks Associated with Federal Construction Projects


    Practices Act. Areas of Application. Existing research shows that risk in contract cover a wide range of application in construction. Erikson ...Year) Area of Application Synopsis Erikson and O’Connor (1979) Firm fixed-price construction contracts Determined the cost effects of varying risk...2001, Erikson , C. A. & O’Connor, M. J. (1979). Construction Contract Risk Assignment, Technical Report P-101, Report No. CERL-TR-P-101, Construction

  7. Operational Risk Modeling

    Gabriela ANGHELACHE


    Full Text Available Losses resulting from operational risk events from a complex interaction between organizational factors, personal and market participants that do not fit a simple classification scheme. Taking into account past losses (ex. Barings, Daiwa, etc. we can say that operational risk is a major financial losses in the banking sector, although until recently have been underestimated, considering that they are generally minor, note setting survival of a bank.

  8. Climate Change Risk Management: CRE Adaptation Projects and the Risk Management Process

    This document describes National Estuary Program partner projects that demonstrate how risk management can be successfully applied to address environmental challenges in our country’s coastal areas.

  9. W-320 Project thermal modeling

    Sathyanarayana, K., Fluor Daniel Hanford


    This report summarizes the results of thermal analysis performed to provide a technical basis in support of Project W-320 to retrieve by sluicing the sludge in Tank 241-C-106 and to transfer into Tank 241-AY-102. Prior theraml evaluations in support of Project W-320 safety analysis assumed the availability of 2000 to 3000 CFM, as provided by Tank Farm Operations, for tank floor cooling channels from the secondary ventilation system. As this flow availability has no technical basis, a detailed Tank 241-AY-102 secondary ventilation and floor coating channel flow model was developed and analysis was performed. The results of the analysis show that only about 150 cfm flow is in floor cooLing channels. Tank 241-AY-102 thermal evaluation was performed to determine the necessary cooling flow for floor cooling channels using W-030 primary ventilation system for different quantities of Tank 241-C-106 sludge transfer into Tank 241-AY-102. These sludge transfers meet different options for the project along with minimum required modification of the ventilation system. Also the results of analysis for the amount of sludge transfer using the current system is presented. The effect of sludge fluffing factor, heat generation rate and its distribution between supernatant and sludge in Tank 241-AY-102 on the amount of sludge transfer from Tank 241-C-106 were evaluated and the results are discussed. Also transient thermal analysis was performed to estimate the time to reach the steady state. For a 2 feet sludge transfer, about 3 months time will be requirad to reach steady state. Therefore, for the purpose of process control, a detailed transient thermal analysis using GOTH Computer Code will be required to determine transient response of the sludge in Tank 241-AY-102. Process control considerations are also discussed to eliminate the potential for a steam bump during retrieval and storage in Tanks 241-C-106 and 241-AY-102 respectively.

  10. Wildfire Risk Main Model

    Earth Data Analysis Center, University of New Mexico — The model combines three modeled fire behavior parameters (rate of spread, flame length, crown fire potential) and one modeled ecological health measure (fire regime...

  11. Bayesian-network-based safety risk assessment for steel construction projects.

    Leu, Sou-Sen; Chang, Ching-Miao


    There are four primary accident types at steel building construction (SC) projects: falls (tumbles), object falls, object collapse, and electrocution. Several systematic safety risk assessment approaches, such as fault tree analysis (FTA) and failure mode and effect criticality analysis (FMECA), have been used to evaluate safety risks at SC projects. However, these traditional methods ineffectively address dependencies among safety factors at various levels that fail to provide early warnings to prevent occupational accidents. To overcome the limitations of traditional approaches, this study addresses the development of a safety risk-assessment model for SC projects by establishing the Bayesian networks (BN) based on fault tree (FT) transformation. The BN-based safety risk-assessment model was validated against the safety inspection records of six SC building projects and nine projects in which site accidents occurred. The ranks of posterior probabilities from the BN model were highly consistent with the accidents that occurred at each project site. The model accurately provides site safety-management abilities by calculating the probabilities of safety risks and further analyzing the causes of accidents based on their relationships in BNs. In practice, based on the analysis of accident risks and significant safety factors, proper preventive safety management strategies can be established to reduce the occurrence of accidents on SC sites.

  12. Sharks, Minnows, and Wheelbarrows: Calculus Modeling Projects

    Smith, Michael D.


    The purpose of this article is to present two very active applied modeling projects that were successfully implemented in a first semester calculus course at Hollins University. The first project uses a logistic equation to model the spread of a new disease such as swine flu. The second project is a human take on the popular article "Do Dogs Know…


    Isac Claudia; Rascolean Ilie


    Working the electric energy system involves many risks that are assumed by the electric energy companies, investors, supplier and customers, as a consequence of interdependence between micro and macroeconomics issues. Main risks that can make an impact on electric energy refer to the following aspects: supplying security, services quality, developing new technologies, electric equipments running,public health and environment.

  14. BOT模式下的工业园区集中废水处理项目综合风险分析%The Integrated Risk Assessment of Concentrated Wastewater Treatment Plant Project in Industrial Park under BOT Model

    周律; 辛怡颖; 蒋鹏飞; 彭标; 刘华; 羊小玉; 刘卫功


    At present, industrial enterprises mostly adopt the pattern of park management and concentrated wastewater treatment plants are important basic facilities for the development of industrial parks. Both of the technology and operation management of concentrated wastewater treatment plants in industrial parks have strong pertinence and special requirements and the projects confront high technical difficulties and great investment because of the high treatment standard, but greatly changeable water quality and quantity of inflow resulted from various uncertain factors. Risks of concentrated wastewater treatment project of industrial park in BOT model mainly contain:police and legal risk, economic and financial risk, risk from defect of BOT model design, project construction risk and technical risk and so forth. These risks should be considered completely and prevented effectively.%目前我国对工业企业多实行园区化管理,集中废水处理厂是工业园区发展的重要基础设施。工业园区集中废水处理厂对废水处理的要求高,污染物排放标准严格,但进水水质水量变化大,且影响水质水量变化的不确定因素多,使得废水处理从工艺技术到运行管理都具有较强的针对性和特殊性要求,项目技术难度高、投资大。采用BOT模式实施园区集中废水处理项目,风险主要包括:政策及法律风险、经济及金融风险、BOT模式设计缺陷产生的风险、工程建设风险和技术风险等。对于这些风险应充分考虑其特点并加以防范。

  15. Modelling of Transport Projects Uncertainties

    Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen


    This paper proposes a new way of handling the uncertainties present in transport decision making based on infrastructure appraisals. The paper suggests to combine the principle of Optimism Bias, which depicts the historical tendency of overestimating transport related benefits and underestimating...... investment costs, with a quantitative risk analysis based on Monte Carlo simulation and to make use of a set of exploratory scenarios. The analysis is carried out by using the CBA-DK model representing the Danish standard approach to socio-economic cost-benefit analysis. Specifically, the paper proposes...... to supplement Optimism Bias and the associated Reference Class Forecasting (RCF) technique with a new technique that makes use of a scenario-grid. We tentatively introduce and refer to this as Reference Scenario Forecasting (RSF). The final RSF output from the CBA-DK model consists of a set of scenario...

  16. Risk Management Improvement of Engineering Projects in Woodworking Industry

    Simona Bartkutė


    Full Text Available Risk is a complex phenomenon that has physical, monetary, cultural and social dimensions. Every company wants tosave money, time, increase quality, optimise manufacturing, but each factor may involve different risks with different influenceto company, its reputation. The aim of the research is to find better risk management improvement decisions, using techniquesthat could help to reduce risk impact in wood-based nonstandard production with shorter project time, smoother design process,lower costs, better project coordination, increased ability to manage problems, technical solutions.

  17. Risk Analysis of Coal Gangue Power Plant Project Based on ISM Model%基于ISM模型的煤矸石电厂项目风险因素分析

    冀巨海; 梁微


    近年来,我国政府部门出台一系列支持和鼓励政策,建立以煤矸石综合利用电厂,使其变废为宝。新电力体制下,火电厂项目竞争激烈,管理中存在很大的风险。根据对煤矸石电厂项目风险因素的分析,从定性的角度给出了影响煤矸石电厂项目的风险因素,将系统工程理论中的解释结构(ISM)模型运用在风险因素分析中,针对风险因素,建立ISM模型,并且运用模型对风险因素进行层次划分,找出各个风险相互影响的内在联系,并且根据ISM模型的分析得到煤矸石电厂项目的规避风险的建议。%In recent years,China's government introduced a series of policies to support and encourage the establishment of coal gangue power plant,to turning waste into treasure.Under the new power system,thermal power plant project competition,there is a big risk of the management.Based on risk analysis of the factors of the gangue power plant project,this paper gives the impact of the risk factors of gangue power plant project from qualitative point,used the Interpretative Systems Model(ISM) method of the engineering theory in the analysis of risk factors,for the risk factors,to establish the ISM,and use the model to divide the level of risk factors.Then identify the various mutual influence inherent relationship of risks,and according to the ISM has been to get the suggestions of avoiding the risk,so that the managers could manage scientifically.

  18. Credit Risk Modeling

    Lando, David

    Credit risk is today one of the most intensely studied topics in quantitative finance. This book provides an introduction and overview for readers who seek an up-to-date reference to the central problems of the field and to the tools currently used to analyze them. The book is aimed at researchers...

  19. Managing Risks in Distributed Software Projects: An Integrative Framework

    Persson, John Stouby; Mathiassen, Lars; Boeg, Jesper


    development, there are currently no frameworks available for managing risks related to geographical distribution. On this background, we systematically review the literature on geographically distributed software projects. Based on the review, we synthesize what we know about risks and risk resolution......Software projects are increasingly geographically distributed with limited face-to-face interaction between participants. These projects face particular challenges that need carefulmanagerial attention. While risk management has been adopted with success to address other challenges within software...... techniques into an integrative framework for managing risks in distributed contexts. Subsequent implementation of a Web-based tool helped us refine the framework based on empirical evaluation of its practical usefulness.We conclude by discussing implications for both research and practice....

  20. A risk evaluation for the fuel retrieval sub-project

    Carlisle, B.S.


    This study reviews the technical, schedule and budget baselines of the sub-project to assure all significant issues have been identified on the sub-project issues management list. The issue resolution dates are identified and resolution plans established. Those issues that could adversely impact procurement activities have been uniquely identified on the list and a risk assessment completed.

  1. Current industrial practice of managing risks in product development project portfolios

    Weng, R.; Oehmen, Josef; Ben-Daya, M.


    Managing portfolios of development and engineering projects currently presents significant challenges to companies. This is even more the case in the management of portfolio risks, where both industry and academia currently lack a clear conceptual understanding of what portfolio risks are and what...... influences them. The objective of this paper is two-fold: First, based on a literature review and industry focus group discussions, we introduce a new model for describing portfolio-level risks. It consists of three types of risks (escalated risks, common cause risks, and cascading risks) based on 9 types...... of interdependencies in PD project portfolios (Technology, Budget, Objectives and Requirements, Infrastructure and Equipment, Skillset and Human Resources, Process and Schedule, Supplier, Legal and Regulatory, and finally Market and Customer). Second, we investigate how risk management on the portfolio level...

  2. Geological uncertainty and risk: implications for the viability of mining projects

    LI Shu-xing; Peter Knights; Doug Dunn


    Computerized geological models are the basis of modem mine design, planning and production. A sound, validated geological model is essential to the success of a mining project. However, due to the complexity of geology surrounding deposits, geological models inherit uncertainty, or error. This geological uncertainty may significantly affect the risk profile of a mining project during its design and operational phases. Methodologies for quantifying geological uncertainty and risk have been developed by CRC Mining and the University of Queensland, Australia and successfully applied to case studies. This paper discussed the implications of geological uncertainty and risk to a coal mining project, and presents advances for quantifying geological/geotechnical uncertainty and risk. A case study is presented to demonstrate the application of the technology developed.

  3. Risk Allocation in Public Private Partnership (PPP Project: A Review on Risk Factors

    Nur Alkaf Abd Karim


    Full Text Available It is important for the public and private sectors to establish effective risk allocation strategies for Public-Private Partnership (PPP projects. According to Malaysia’s PPP Guideline, one of the key feature or characteristics is to optimal sharing of risk whereby risk is allocated to the party who is the best able to manage. This mean that in PPP itself, it emphasis risk allocation in construction project. This paper presents on reviewing the risk factors of PPP construction project by mapping previous research works on PPP project around the world. The matrix of the mapping gives the frequency of factors that are considered the risk allocation of PPP project. The risk factors are clustered into 10 groups namely: Political, Construction, Legal, Economic, Operation, Market, Project selection, Project finance, Relationship and Natural factor. Result shows that the highest score frequency factors are change in law, delay in project approvals & permits and land acquisition. By knowing the risk factors gives better understanding in allocating them to parties/stakeholders involved.

  4. Effect of risk aversion on prioritizing conservation projects.

    Tulloch, Ayesha I T; Maloney, Richard F; Joseph, Liana N; Bennett, Joseph R; Di Fonzo, Martina M I; Probert, William J M; O'Connor, Shaun M; Densem, Jodie P; Possingham, Hugh P


    Conservation outcomes are uncertain. Agencies making decisions about what threat mitigation actions to take to save which species frequently face the dilemma of whether to invest in actions with high probability of success and guaranteed benefits or to choose projects with a greater risk of failure that might provide higher benefits if they succeed. The answer to this dilemma lies in the decision maker's aversion to risk--their unwillingness to accept uncertain outcomes. Little guidance exists on how risk preferences affect conservation investment priorities. Using a prioritization approach based on cost effectiveness, we compared 2 approaches: a conservative probability threshold approach that excludes investment in projects with a risk of management failure greater than a fixed level, and a variance-discounting heuristic used in economics that explicitly accounts for risk tolerance and the probabilities of management success and failure. We applied both approaches to prioritizing projects for 700 of New Zealand's threatened species across 8303 management actions. Both decision makers' risk tolerance and our choice of approach to dealing with risk preferences drove the prioritization solution (i.e., the species selected for management). Use of a probability threshold minimized uncertainty, but more expensive projects were selected than with variance discounting, which maximized expected benefits by selecting the management of species with higher extinction risk and higher conservation value. Explicitly incorporating risk preferences within the decision making process reduced the number of species expected to be safe from extinction because lower risk tolerance resulted in more species being excluded from management, but the approach allowed decision makers to choose a level of acceptable risk that fit with their ability to accommodate failure. We argue for transparency in risk tolerance and recommend that decision makers accept risk in an adaptive management

  5. Liver Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing liver cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  6. Colorectal Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing colorectal cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  7. Cervical Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing cervical cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  8. Prostate Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing prostate cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  9. Pancreatic Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing pancreatic cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  10. Colorectal Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing colorectal cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  11. Bladder Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing bladder cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  12. Esophageal Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing esophageal cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  13. Lung Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing lung cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  14. Breast Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing breast cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  15. Ovarian Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing ovarian cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  16. Testicular Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of testicular cervical cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  17. Multilevel joint competing risk models

    Karunarathna, G. H. S.; Sooriyarachchi, M. R.


    Joint modeling approaches are often encountered for different outcomes of competing risk time to event and count in many biomedical and epidemiology studies in the presence of cluster effect. Hospital length of stay (LOS) has been the widely used outcome measure in hospital utilization due to the benchmark measurement for measuring multiple terminations such as discharge, transferred, dead and patients who have not completed the event of interest at the follow up period (censored) during hospitalizations. Competing risk models provide a method of addressing such multiple destinations since classical time to event models yield biased results when there are multiple events. In this study, the concept of joint modeling has been applied to the dengue epidemiology in Sri Lanka, 2006-2008 to assess the relationship between different outcomes of LOS and platelet count of dengue patients with the district cluster effect. Two key approaches have been applied to build up the joint scenario. In the first approach, modeling each competing risk separately using the binary logistic model, treating all other events as censored under the multilevel discrete time to event model, while the platelet counts are assumed to follow a lognormal regression model. The second approach is based on the endogeneity effect in the multilevel competing risks and count model. Model parameters were estimated using maximum likelihood based on the Laplace approximation. Moreover, the study reveals that joint modeling approach yield more precise results compared to fitting two separate univariate models, in terms of AIC (Akaike Information Criterion).

  18. Economic optimisation of flood risk management projects

    Tsimopoulou, V.


    The Netherlands has developed a flood risk management policy based on an economic rationale. After the flood disaster of 1953, when a large area of the south-western part of the country was flooded and more than 1800 people lost their lives, the so-called Delta Committee was installed, whose main pu

  19. Economic optimisation of flood risk management projects

    Tsimopoulou, V.


    The Netherlands has developed a flood risk management policy based on an economic rationale. After the flood disaster of 1953, when a large area of the south-western part of the country was flooded and more than 1800 people lost their lives, the so-called Delta Committee was installed, whose main

  20. Economic optimisation of flood risk management projects

    Tsimopoulou, V.


    The Netherlands has developed a flood risk management policy based on an economic rationale. After the flood disaster of 1953, when a large area of the south-western part of the country was flooded and more than 1800 people lost their lives, the so-called Delta Committee was installed, whose main pu

  1. Transhumanism: projections of opportunities, risks and dangers

    Kindras, Natasha


    The experience of recent decades reveals a special changeability of various aspects of human existence. The nomadic movement in space «trans» is especially typical. Modern philosophical thought for these processes uses the term «transhumanism». The paper considers scientifically oriented outlook of transhumanism, analyzes the opportunities, risks and dangers of biotechnological transformation of human into posthuman.

  2. Risk modelling in portfolio optimization

    Lam, W. H.; Jaaman, Saiful Hafizah Hj.; Isa, Zaidi


    Risk management is very important in portfolio optimization. The mean-variance model has been used in portfolio optimization to minimize the investment risk. The objective of the mean-variance model is to minimize the portfolio risk and achieve the target rate of return. Variance is used as risk measure in the mean-variance model. The purpose of this study is to compare the portfolio composition as well as performance between the optimal portfolio of mean-variance model and equally weighted portfolio. Equally weighted portfolio means the proportions that are invested in each asset are equal. The results show that the portfolio composition of the mean-variance optimal portfolio and equally weighted portfolio are different. Besides that, the mean-variance optimal portfolio gives better performance because it gives higher performance ratio than the equally weighted portfolio.

  3. Risk Management Model in Surface Exploitation of Mineral Deposits

    Stojanović, Cvjetko


    Risk management is an integrative part of all types of project management. One of the main tasks of pre-investment studies and other project documentation is the tendency to protect investment projects as much as possible against investment risks. Therefore, the provision and regulation of risk information ensure the identification of the probability of the emergence of adverse events, their forms, causes and consequences, and provides a timely measures of protection against risks. This means that risk management involves a set of management methods and techniques used to reduce the possibility of realizing the adverse events and consequences and thus increase the possibilities of achieving the planned results with minimal losses. Investment in mining projects are of capital importance because they are very complex projects, therefore being very risky, because of the influence of internal and external factors and limitations arising from the socio-economic environment. Due to the lack of a risk management system, numerous organizations worldwide have suffered significant financial losses. Therefore, it is necessary for any organization to establish a risk management system as a structural element of system management system as a whole. This paper presents an approach to a Risk management model in the project of opening a surface coal mine, developed based on studies of extensive scientific literature and personal experiences of the author, and which, with certain modifications, may find use for any investment project, both in the mining industry as well as in investment projects in other areas.

  4. The Canvas model in project formulation

    Ferreira-Herrera, Diana Carolina


    Purpose: The aim of this article is to determine the relevance of the Canvas methodology in project formulation through model characterization, thus answering the question: Is the Canvas methodology a relevant model for project management in an entrepreneurial context? Description: The Canvas model seeks to manage projects as business units. It is a model intended for emphasizing the entrepreneurial potential in project management. For this, texts and articles that have provided the basis for...


    Sinisa Bogdan


    Full Text Available The paper examines capital budgeting process and techniques of risk analysis in the process of selecting optimal project. Corporate manager in process of capital budgeting uses numerous techniques some of them are based on intuition and experience of manager, and some of them are analytic based on sensitive, scenario, decision tree and Monte Carlo method. All methods are used to determinate and to predict risk influence on the projects. Article deals with analytical techniques and real problems that can arise in capital budgeting process. Trough case study in article we analyzed risks that may emerge from different techniques. Conclusion that emerges from analyzing different methods of risk techniques is that only with right combination of these techniques corporate manager could decide correctly to choose optimal capital project.


    Emilia IORDACHE


    Full Text Available Risk is present in all human activities; it can be associated with health, security, economy or environment. The goal of risk management is to control, prevent or decrease potential damages. Technically speaking, risk management means all the activities coordinated so as to orient and monitor an organization from the risk perspective. Risk management helps formulate the most adequate decisions by taking account of uncertainties and their effects upon the accomplishment of proposed goals, and argues the need to lay down and implement coercive, preventive actions typical of the management of a company. The benefits of good risk management and also the consequences of bad management shall undoubtedly be felt by an organization’s board, employees, shareholders, customers as well as by all other entities concerned with organizational performance. Projects generally include a number of risks in common with those in business as well as certain typical ones. In complex projects, it is this very feature – complexity – which generates the need to implement risk management for the purpose to diminish, remove, and monitor the risks which can influence the development of a project.


    S. Naumenkova


    Full Text Available This article examines the risk-mitigation in public-private partnership. Today Ukraine is ranked as "CRT-5 country" and has high levels of economic and political risk. Political risk grows steadily because of financial and political instability in Ukraine. We conclude that investors continue to rank political risk as a key obstacle to long-term investing. The tools for cover many types of political risks such as war, terrorism, civil disturbance, breach of contract, export or operating license cancellation, currency inconvertibility and transfer restriction, change of laws and regulations etc. are described by authors. We focus on the advantages of World Bank Group Guarantee products. The guarantee instruments of the three WBG institutions for cover political risks under different circumstances are the most suitable for public-private partnership in Ukraine. In this article the political risk-mitigation with IBRD Partial Risk Guarantee put forward by authors for PPP projects in Ukraine.

  8. The Digital Astronaut Project Bone Remodeling Model

    Pennline, James A.; Mulugeta, Lealem; Lewandowski, Beth E.; Thompson, William K.; Sibonga, Jean D.


    Under the conditions of microgravity, astronauts lose bone mass at a rate of 1% to 2% a month, particularly in the lower extremities such as the proximal femur: (1) The most commonly used countermeasure against bone loss has been prescribed exercise, (2) However, current exercise countermeasures do not completely eliminate bone loss in long duration, 4 to 6 months, spaceflight, (3,4) leaving the astronaut susceptible to early onset osteoporosis and a greater risk of fracture later in their lives. The introduction of the Advanced Resistive Exercise Device, coupled with improved nutrition, has further minimized the 4 to 6 month bone loss. But further work is needed to implement optimal exercise prescriptions, and (5) In this light, NASA's Digital Astronaut Project (DAP) is working with NASA physiologists to implement well-validated computational models that can help understand the mechanisms of bone demineralization in microgravity, and enhance exercise countermeasure development.

  9. Simulated Annealing Genetic Algorithm Based Schedule Risk Management of IT Outsourcing Project

    Fuqiang Lu


    Full Text Available IT outsourcing is an effective way to enhance the core competitiveness for many enterprises. But the schedule risk of IT outsourcing project may cause enormous economic loss to enterprise. In this paper, the Distributed Decision Making (DDM theory and the principal-agent theory are used to build a model for schedule risk management of IT outsourcing project. In addition, a hybrid algorithm combining simulated annealing (SA and genetic algorithm (GA is designed, namely, simulated annealing genetic algorithm (SAGA. The effect of the proposed model on the schedule risk management problem is analyzed in the simulation experiment. Meanwhile, the simulation results of the three algorithms GA, SA, and SAGA show that SAGA is the most superior one to the other two algorithms in terms of stability and convergence. Consequently, this paper provides the scientific quantitative proposal for the decision maker who needs to manage the schedule risk of IT outsourcing project.

  10. Rapid Response Risk Assessment in New Project Development

    Graber, Robert R.


    A capability for rapidly performing quantitative risk assessments has been developed by JSC Safety and Mission Assurance for use on project design trade studies early in the project life cycle, i.e., concept development through preliminary design phases. A risk assessment tool set has been developed consisting of interactive and integrated software modules that allow a user/project designer to assess the impact of alternative design or programmatic options on the probability of mission success or other risk metrics. The risk and design trade space includes interactive options for selecting parameters and/or metrics for numerous design characteristics including component reliability characteristics, functional redundancy levels, item or system technology readiness levels, and mission event characteristics. This capability is intended for use on any project or system development with a defined mission, and an example project will used for demonstration and descriptive purposes, e.g., landing a robot on the moon. The effects of various alternative design considerations and their impact of these decisions on mission success (or failure) can be measured in real time on a personal computer. This capability provides a high degree of efficiency for quickly providing information in NASA s evolving risk-based decision environment

  11. Integrated Control Model for Time and Cost Risk in Project Management%项目管理中的时间和费用风险联合控制模型

    程铁信; 张伟波; 张勇


    Time, cost and quality are the three main targets to be controled in project management. However, the control and management of time and cost risk are usually carried out respectively, which will bring such problems as the delay of schedule by reason of the impracticability of cash flow, the money difficulties caused by delay of schedule and so on. In order to control and manage the time and cost risk effectively and simultaneously, a time & cost risk control model based on schedule programme was established with the use of the quantitative models of BCWS, BCWP and ACWP in this paper. Subsequently, the analysis of variance for the whole project and the single activity was introduced on the basis of BCWS, BCWP and ACWP so that the project can be controlled and managed effectively. Furthermore, an example given behind in detail expressly illustrated that the model set up above was practicable to project management. However, the method of optimizing the cash flow based on time and cost risk to obtain BCWS should be considered properly and carefully with respect to the different circumstances of the project, and an efficient and adequate interval report system should be set up on the site of the project.%时间、费用和质量是项目管理中的三大控制目标,而通常对于时间和费用风险的控制与管理则分别进行,往往由于不合理的资金安排导致工期的延误,或由于进度的风险造成资金困难.为了能够同时对工期和费用风险进行有效的控制,建立了基于计划预算值、挣得值和实际支出值的时间和费用风险联合控制模型,并引入对于整个项目和单个工序的偏差分析方法.通过一个具体的实例分析,可看出该模型的实用性.另外,对于模型中资金流的优化,应根据项目的具体情况采用适当的优化方法,而且,为了有效地采用该模型进行项目的时间和费用联合控制,应在施工现场建立充分有效的期间数据报告系统.

  12. Model based risk assessment - the CORAS framework

    Gran, Bjoern Axel; Fredriksen, Rune; Thunem, Atoosa P-J.


    Traditional risk analysis and assessment is based on failure-oriented models of the system. In contrast to this, model-based risk assessment (MBRA) utilizes success-oriented models describing all intended system aspects, including functional, operational and organizational aspects of the target. The target models are then used as input sources for complementary risk analysis and assessment techniques, as well as a basis for the documentation of the assessment results. The EU-funded CORAS project developed a tool-supported methodology for the application of MBRA in security-critical systems. The methodology has been tested with successful outcome through a series of seven trial within the telemedicine and ecommerce areas. The CORAS project in general and the CORAS application of MBRA in particular have contributed positively to the visibility of model-based risk assessment and thus to the disclosure of several potentials for further exploitation of various aspects within this important research field. In that connection, the CORAS methodology's possibilities for further improvement towards utilization in more complex architectures and also in other application domains such as the nuclear field can be addressed. The latter calls for adapting the framework to address nuclear standards such as IEC 60880 and IEC 61513. For this development we recommend applying a trial driven approach within the nuclear field. The tool supported approach for combining risk analysis and system development also fits well with the HRP proposal for developing an Integrated Design Environment (IDE) providing efficient methods and tools to support control room systems design. (Author)

  13. A simplified model of software project dynamics

    Ruiz Carreira, Mercedes; Ramos Román, Isabel; Toro Bonilla, Miguel


    The simulation of a dynamic model for software development projects (hereinafter SDPs) helps to investigate the impact of a technological change, of different management policies, and of maturity level of organisations over the whole project. In the beginning of the 1990s, with the appearance of the dynamic model for SDPs by Abdel-Hamid and Madnick [Software Project Dynamics: An Integrated Approach, Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ, 1991], a significant advance took place in the field of p...

  14. Risk management in e-learning projects of courses development and implementation

    Michał Kuciapski


    Full Text Available The aim of the article is to present elaborated risk management model in project management of e-learning courses development and implementation. Showed model of risk management is a part of a complex, integrated model for e-learning projects’ processes management. The starting point of the article is an analysis of the current state of scientific literature in the field of project management for e-learning courses with a thesis that there are no suitable models adapted to the specifics of e-learning. For the thesis confirmation a case studies of four e-learning institutions with significant experience in e-learning field is being shown. Developed risk management model is presented in the third part of the article. It starts from showing elaborated general processes map, with integrated risk management. Finally detailed risk management models for distinguished processes are being presented. The article is based on case studies of European institutions with significant e-learning projects realization experience, like: Oncampus, Lübeck University of Applied Science from Germany; Distance Education Centre, Kaunas University of Technology from Lithuania; Center of Distance Education Development, Higher Banking School and Educational Portal of University of Gdansk, University of Gdansk. It also includes author’s six years experience gained by participation in e-learning projects, like international Baltic Sea Virtual Campus and national POKL as courses’ author, instructional designer and it coordinator.

  15. Implementation of lean construction techniques for minimizing the risks effect on project construction time

    Usama Hamed Issa


    Full Text Available The construction projects involve various risk factors which have various impacts on time objective that may lead to time-overrun. This study suggests and applies a new technique for minimizing risk factors effect on time using lean construction principles. The lean construction is implemented in this study using the last planner system through execution of an industrial project in Egypt. Evaluating the effect of using the new tool is described in terms of two measurements: Percent Expected Time-overrun (PET and Percent Plan Completed (PPC. The most important risk factors are identified and assessed, while PET is quantified at the project start and during the project execution using a model for time-overrun quantification. The results showed that total project time is reduced by 15.57% due to decreasing PET values, while PPC values improved. This is due to minimizing and mitigating the effect of most of the risk factors in this project due to implementing lean construction techniques. The results proved that the quantification model is suitable for evaluating the effect of using lean construction techniques. In addition, the results showed that average value of PET due to factors affected by lean techniques represents 67% from PET values due to all minimized risk factors.

  16. Multifractal Value at Risk model

    Lee, Hojin; Song, Jae Wook; Chang, Woojin


    In this paper new Value at Risk (VaR) model is proposed and investigated. We consider the multifractal property of financial time series and develop a multifractal Value at Risk (MFVaR). MFVaR introduced in this paper is analytically tractable and not based on simulation. Empirical study showed that MFVaR can provide the more stable and accurate forecasting performance in volatile financial markets where large loss can be incurred. This implies that our multifractal VaR works well for the risk measurement of extreme credit events.

  17. Command Process Modeling & Risk Analysis

    Meshkat, Leila


    Commanding Errors may be caused by a variety of root causes. It's important to understand the relative significance of each of these causes for making institutional investment decisions. One of these causes is the lack of standardized processes and procedures for command and control. We mitigate this problem by building periodic tables and models corresponding to key functions within it. These models include simulation analysis and probabilistic risk assessment models.

  18. Information risk and security modeling

    Zivic, Predrag


    This research paper presentation will feature current frameworks to addressing risk and security modeling and metrics. The paper will analyze technical level risk and security metrics of Common Criteria/ISO15408, Centre for Internet Security guidelines, NSA configuration guidelines and metrics used at this level. Information IT operational standards view on security metrics such as GMITS/ISO13335, ITIL/ITMS and architectural guidelines such as ISO7498-2 will be explained. Business process level standards such as ISO17799, COSO and CobiT will be presented with their control approach to security metrics. Top level, the maturity standards such as SSE-CMM/ISO21827, NSA Infosec Assessment and CobiT will be explored and reviewed. For each defined level of security metrics the research presentation will explore the appropriate usage of these standards. The paper will discuss standards approaches to conducting the risk and security metrics. The research findings will demonstrate the need for common baseline for both risk and security metrics. This paper will show the relation between the attribute based common baseline and corporate assets and controls for risk and security metrics. IT will be shown that such approach spans over all mentioned standards. The proposed approach 3D visual presentation and development of the Information Security Model will be analyzed and postulated. Presentation will clearly demonstrate the benefits of proposed attributes based approach and defined risk and security space for modeling and measuring.

  19. Cabin Environment Physics Risk Model

    Mattenberger, Christopher J.; Mathias, Donovan Leigh


    This paper presents a Cabin Environment Physics Risk (CEPR) model that predicts the time for an initial failure of Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) functionality to propagate into a hazardous environment and trigger a loss-of-crew (LOC) event. This physics-of failure model allows a probabilistic risk assessment of a crewed spacecraft to account for the cabin environment, which can serve as a buffer to protect the crew during an abort from orbit and ultimately enable a safe return. The results of the CEPR model replace the assumption that failure of the crew critical ECLSS functionality causes LOC instantly, and provide a more accurate representation of the spacecraft's risk posture. The instant-LOC assumption is shown to be excessively conservative and, moreover, can impact the relative risk drivers identified for the spacecraft. This, in turn, could lead the design team to allocate mass for equipment to reduce overly conservative risk estimates in a suboptimal configuration, which inherently increases the overall risk to the crew. For example, available mass could be poorly used to add redundant ECLSS components that have a negligible benefit but appear to make the vehicle safer due to poor assumptions about the propagation time of ECLSS failures.

  20. World energy projection system: Model documentation


    The World Energy Project System (WEPS) is an accounting framework that incorporates projects from independently documented models and assumptions about the future energy intensity of economic activity (ratios of total energy consumption divided by gross domestic product) and about the rate of incremental energy requirements met by hydropower, geothermal, coal, and natural gas to produce projections of world energy consumption published annually by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) in the International Energy Outlook (IEO) (Figure 1). Two independently documented models presented in Figure 1, the Oil Market Simulation (OMS) model and the World Integrated Nuclear Evaluation System (WINES) provide projections of oil and nuclear power consumption published in the IEO. Output from a third independently documented model, and the International Coal Trade Model (ICTM), is not published in the IEO but is used in WEPS as a supply check on projections of world coal consumption produced by WEPS and published in the IEO. A WEPS model of natural gas production documented in this report provides the same type of implicit supply check on the WEPS projections of world natural gas consumption published in the IEO. Two additional models are included in Figure 1, the OPEC Capacity model and the Non-OPEC Oil Production model. These WEPS models provide inputs to the OMS model and are documented in this report.

  1. Risk Modelling of Agricultural Products

    Nugrahani, E. H.


    In the real world market, agricultural commodity are imposed with fluctuating prices. This means that the price of agricultural products are relatively volatile, which means that agricultural business is a quite risky business for farmers. This paper presents some mathematical models to model such risks in the form of its volatility, based on certain assumptions. The proposed models are time varying volatility model, as well as time varying volatility with mean reversion and with seasonal mean equation models. Implementation on empirical data show that agricultural products are indeed risky.

  2. Strategic Material Shortfall Risk Mitigation Optimization Model (OPTIM-SM)


    contracts, could be added to the existing mix . Market 40 responses to supply and demand shocks could be modeled more explicitly as could...Model (OPTIM-SM) James S. Thomason, Project Leader D. Sean Barnett James P. Bell Jerome Bracken Eleanor L. Schwartz INSTITUTE FOR DEFENSE ANALYSES 4850...Risk Mitigation Optimization Model (OPTIM-SM) James S. Thomason, Project Leader D. Sean Barnett James P. Bell Jerome Bracken Eleanor L. Schwartz iii

  3. Dream project: Applications of earth observations to disaster risk management

    Dyke, G.; Gill, S.; Davies, R.; Betorz, F.; Andalsvik, Y.; Cackler, J.; Dos Santos, W.; Dunlop, K.; Ferreira, I.; Kebe, F.; Lamboglia, E.; Matsubara, Y.; Nikolaidis, V.; Ostoja-Starzewski, S.; Sakita, M.; Verstappen, N.


    The field of disaster risk management is relatively new and takes a structured approach to managing uncertainty related to the threat of natural and man-made disasters. Disaster risk management consists primarily of risk assessment and the development of strategies to mitigate disaster risk. This paper will discuss how increasing both Earth observation data and information technology capabilities can contribute to disaster risk management, particularly in Belize. The paper presents the results and recommendations of a project conducted by an international and interdisciplinary team of experts at the 2009 session of the International Space University in NASA Ames Research Center (California, USA). The aim is to explore the combination of current, planned and potential space-aided, airborne, and ground-based Earth observation tools, the emergence of powerful new web-based and mobile data management tools, and how this combination can support and improve the emerging field of disaster risk management. The starting point of the project was the World Bank's Comprehensive Approach to Probabilistic Risk Assessment (CAPRA) program, focused in Central America. This program was used as a test bed to analyze current space technologies used in risk management and develop new strategies and tools to be applied in other regions around the world.

  4. The sequential propensity household projection model

    Tom Wilson


    Full Text Available BACKGROUND The standard method of projecting living arrangements and households in Australia and New Zealand is the 'propensity model', a type of extended headship rate model. Unfortunately it possesses a number of serious shortcomings, including internal inconsistencies, difficulties in setting living arrangement assumptions, and very limited scenario creation capabilities. Data allowing the application of more sophisticated dynamic household projection models are unavailable in Australia. OBJECTIVE The aim was create a projection model to overcome these shortcomings whilst minimising input data requirements and costs, and retaining the projection outputs users are familiar with. METHODS The sequential propensity household projection model is proposed. Living arrangement projections take place in a sequence of calculations, with progressively more detailed living arrangement categories calculated in each step. In doing so the model largely overcomes the three serious deficiencies of the standard propensity model noted above. RESULTS The model is illustrated by three scenarios produced for one case study State, Queensland. They are: a baseline scenario in which all propensities are held constant to demonstrate the effects of population growth and ageing, a housing crisis scenario where housing affordability declines, and a prosperity scenario where families and individuals enjoy greater real incomes. A sensitivity analysis in which assumptions are varied one by one is also presented. CONCLUSIONS The sequential propensity model offers a more effective method of producing household and living arrangement projections than the standard propensity model, and is a practical alternative to dynamic projection models for countries and regions where the data and resources to apply such models are unavailable.

  5. Lunar Landing Operational Risk Model

    Mattenberger, Chris; Putney, Blake; Rust, Randy; Derkowski, Brian


    Characterizing the risk of spacecraft goes beyond simply modeling equipment reliability. Some portions of the mission require complex interactions between system elements that can lead to failure without an actual hardware fault. Landing risk is currently the least characterized aspect of the Altair lunar lander and appears to result from complex temporal interactions between pilot, sensors, surface characteristics and vehicle capabilities rather than hardware failures. The Lunar Landing Operational Risk Model (LLORM) seeks to provide rapid and flexible quantitative insight into the risks driving the landing event and to gauge sensitivities of the vehicle to changes in system configuration and mission operations. The LLORM takes a Monte Carlo based approach to estimate the operational risk of the Lunar Landing Event and calculates estimates of the risk of Loss of Mission (LOM) - Abort Required and is Successful, Loss of Crew (LOC) - Vehicle Crashes or Cannot Reach Orbit, and Success. The LLORM is meant to be used during the conceptual design phase to inform decision makers transparently of the reliability impacts of design decisions, to identify areas of the design which may require additional robustness, and to aid in the development and flow-down of requirements.

  6. The study on stage financing model of IT project investment.

    Chen, Si-hua; Xu, Sheng-hua; Lee, Changhoon; Xiong, Neal N; He, Wei


    Stage financing is the basic operation of venture capital investment. In investment, usually venture capitalists use different strategies to obtain the maximum returns. Due to its advantages to reduce the information asymmetry and agency cost, stage financing is widely used by venture capitalists. Although considerable attentions are devoted to stage financing, very little is known about the risk aversion strategies of IT projects. This paper mainly addresses the problem of risk aversion of venture capital investment in IT projects. Based on the analysis of characteristics of venture capital investment of IT projects, this paper introduces a real option pricing model to measure the value brought by the stage financing strategy and design a risk aversion model for IT projects. Because real option pricing method regards investment activity as contingent decision, it helps to make judgment on the management flexibility of IT projects and then make a more reasonable evaluation about the IT programs. Lastly by being applied to a real case, it further illustrates the effectiveness and feasibility of the model.

  7. Prioritization of Effective Risk Factors on Oil Industry Construction Projects (By PMBOK Standard Approach

    Hossein Baharmand


    Full Text Available This study is an applied, analytic-descriptive research in terms of nature. It is thus an analysis in which a sample has been applied for data collection and it is descriptive since its variables are assessed and reported as they are in reality. This study seeks to identify effective risks existing in construction industry specifically in the national macro projects such as oil industry projects through utilizing Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK model and to estimate the relative impact of each risk on the projects. It aims at prioritizing the effective risk factors on the construction projects (a case study of National Iranian Oil Company. Thus NIOC construction projects, consulting engineers companies and contractor companies in construction projects of oil industry have been selected as the statistical universe to identify and prioritize the risks. Due to the focus of oil industry construction projects on South Pars Special Economic Zone, under planning, implementation or completion phases and with regard to the phases' expansion in terms of number and volume of activities and also strategic features and confidentiality of information, three phases out of 28 ones have been case-studied. It is generally concluded in this study that with respect to the country significant strategic, geopolitical, geographical, economic and military position in the world, it is a matter of great magnitude to regard the risks identification and management as one of the important areas in the project management and to consider it as a national and comprehensive plan when designing and ratifying industrial projects of the country.

  8. Fuzzy audit risk modeling algorithm

    Zohreh Hajihaa


    Full Text Available Fuzzy logic has created suitable mathematics for making decisions in uncertain environments including professional judgments. One of the situations is to assess auditee risks. During recent years, risk based audit (RBA has been regarded as one of the main tools to fight against fraud. The main issue in RBA is to determine the overall audit risk an auditor accepts, which impact the efficiency of an audit. The primary objective of this research is to redesign the audit risk model (ARM proposed by auditing standards. The proposed model of this paper uses fuzzy inference systems (FIS based on the judgments of audit experts. The implementation of proposed fuzzy technique uses triangular fuzzy numbers to express the inputs and Mamdani method along with center of gravity are incorporated for defuzzification. The proposed model uses three FISs for audit, inherent and control risks, and there are five levels of linguistic variables for outputs. FISs include 25, 25 and 81 rules of if-then respectively and officials of Iranian audit experts confirm all the rules.

  9. A Model of Project and Organisational Dynamics

    Jenny Leonard


    Full Text Available The strategic, transformational nature of many information systems projects is now widely understood. Large-scale implementations of systems are known to require significant management of organisational change in order to be successful. Moreover, projects are rarely executed in isolation – most organisations have a large programme of projects being implemented at any one time. However, project and value management methodologies provide ad hoc definitions of the relationship between a project and its environment. This limits the ability of an organisation to manage the larger dynamics between projects and organisations, over time, and between projects. The contribution of this paper, therefore, is to use literature on organisational theory to provide a more systematic understanding of this area. The organisational facilitators required to obtain value from a project are categorised, and the processes required to develop those facilitators are defined. This formalisation facilitates generalisation between projects and highlights any time and path dependencies required in developing organisational facilitators. The model therefore has the potential to contribute to the development of IS project management theory within dynamic organisational contexts. Six cases illustrate how this model could be used.

  10. K3 projective models in scrolls

    Johnsen, Trygve


    The exposition studies projective models of K3 surfaces whose hyperplane sections are non-Clifford general curves. These models are contained in rational normal scrolls. The exposition supplements standard descriptions of models of general K3 surfaces in projective spaces of low dimension, and leads to a classification of K3 surfaces in projective spaces of dimension at most 10. The authors bring further the ideas in Saint-Donat's classical article from 1974, lifting results from canonical curves to K3 surfaces and incorporating much of the Brill-Noether theory of curves and theory of syzygies developed in the mean time.

  11. Evaluation Of The Risk Of Financing Projects Of Environmental Protection

    Gabriela Cornelia PICIU


    Full Text Available The research project approaches multidimensionally the financing of environmental protection from the perspective of directing, correlating and consolidating the financial flows circumscribed to the regeneration of an economy affected by environmental deterioration due to the very activities defining the economic mechanisms and circuits. The purpose of the project is to identify, by scientific, methodological and empirical analysis of the concepts, principles and arguments imposed by the economic theory, the risks of financing the projects of environmental projects and to evaluate their effects because their neglecting, individual approach or erroneous dimensioning might have unfavourable and unforeseen consequences in terms of the efficiency of the environmental strategies and policies. The objective of the study is the reveal the interdependency and interaction between the flows and circuits financing the environmental projects, showing the necessity for punctual, distributive, correlative and multiplicative financing of the environmental protection. This must be done from an expanded and prospective spatial and temporal vision by a compositional approach of the risk for environmental investments within the complex network of the social, economic and financial risks generated by the global system of the human praxis focused on the binomial of the human-environment interdependence.

  12. Occupational emerging risks affecting international virtual project Team Results

    Dumitraşcu-Băldău Iulia


    Full Text Available The expansion of internet access, high-speed connection services, collaborative work platforms and tools, allowed employees to interact virtually offering companies the possibility to develop projects around the world, reducing operational costs and gain competitive advantage. Realizing the advantages and disadvantages of developing a project team in an international virtual work environment, requires adopting specific strategies to construct an effective team and ensure the project success. One of the most important disadvantages that we identified is that the new work environment brings new risks for both team members and managers. So, it becomes mandatory to identify and analyze the occupational emerging risks and their impact on the productivity of virtual team members, in order to prevent them efficiently and to ensure the safety and health of employees in a virtual working environment. This paper aims to highlight the necessity for project managers and organizations, to include in their specific project strategies, an efficient occupational risks management in the virtual workplace, to obtain a continuously improved virtual working environment, so to achieve a high performance from virtual employees.

  13. Risk management for medical devices in research projects

    Sauter Christian


    Full Text Available In applied research for medical devices exists a conflict between effective research and regulations. While researchers need sufficient freedom the regulations require a complex technical documentation for a medical device. One relevant aspect of the regulations is risk management which takes time and therefore is ignored in many research projects. With adoptions to the standard the effort can be reduced: Identifying of risks can be focused on critical risks, measures can be categorised and only some categories need to be implemented. Research teams using this method can provide results which can be transferred into commercial products easier, cheaper and faster.

  14. Incorporating risk in the economic evaluation of road infrastructure projects

    Schutte, IC


    Full Text Available credibility to the process and ensure strategic decisions that are more defendable. In this study, a prosedure for incorporating risk is suggested. It involves the identification of inputs critical to the economic success of the project, the quantification...

  15. Recognizing Risk-of-Failure in Communication Design Projects

    Yee, Joyce; Lievesley, Matthew; Taylor, Louise


    The pace of commercial graphic design practice presents very few opportunities to conduct user research after a project's launch. This makes the design team's ability to anticipate and address risks during the design development phase even more important, recognized in the astute observation from Tim Brown, CEO of leading international design…

  16. Earthquake risk mitigation projects in central asia and india

    Hausler, E.; Petal, M.; Tobin, T.; Tucker, B.; Gupta, M.; Sharma, A.; Shaw, R.


    In the fall of 2002, GeoHazards International (GHI), a California-based nonprofit organization, launched two 3-year projects, each funded by the U.S. Agency for International Development, to improve the earthquake risk management of 23 cities in Central Asia and India. The objectives of these projects are to: * Assess the earthquake risk of each city, * Identify the most effective risk mitigation options for each city, * Raise awareness of that risk and those mitigation options, and * Initiate mitigation activities in some of these cities. A critical characteristic of these projects is that leaders of each local community will be deeply involved in realizing all four objectives. GHI will work with, in addition to local authorities, national government, academic and non-governmental organizations. In India, GHI’s partners are the Disaster Management Planning Hyogo Office, United Nations Centre for Regional Development (UNCRD) of Kobe, Japan, and the Sustainable Environment and Ecological Development Society (SEEDS), of Delhi, India. In India, we will work in 20 cities that were chosen, in a February 1, 2002 workshop (sponsored by Munich Reinsurance Company) in Delhi; the cities were selected by Indian earthquake professionals on the basis of the cities’ population, hazard, and economic, cultural and political significance. In Central Asia, we will focus on Tashkent, Uzbekistan; Dushanbe, Tadzhikistan; and Almaty, Kazakstan. GHI and its partners are looking for other organizations that would like to collaborate on these projects.

  17. Operation safety risk analysis method of hydropower project considering time-dependent effect

    Zhang Sherong; Yan Lei


    In order to consider the time-dependent characteristic of risk factors of hydropower project, the method of stochastic process simulating structure resistance and load effect is adopted. On the basis of analyzing the structure characteristics and mode of operation, the operation safety risk rate assessment model of hydropower project is established on the comprehensive application of the improved analytic hierarchy process, the time-dependent reliability theory and the risk rate threshold. A scheme to demonstrate the time-dependent risk rate assessment method for an example of the earth-rock dam is particularly implemented by the proposed approach. The example shows that operation safety risk rate is closely related to both the service period and design standard ; considering the effect of time-dependent, the risk rate increases with time and the intersection of them reflects the technical service life of structures. It could provide scientific basis for the operation safety and risk decision of the hydropower project by predicting the trend of risk rate via this model.

  18. 基于特征映射模型的输变电工程造价风险因素识别%Power Transmission and Distribution Project Cost Risk Identification Based on Feature Mapping Model

    章昀玥; 张云宁; 蔡骋


    工程项目风险评价和风险控制的成败与能否正确识别风险因素密不可分,由于输变电工程造价具有很强的不确定性,且风险因素识别是一个多层次的复杂过程,传统的风险识别方法很难全面系统地识别出众多风险因素.基于特征映射理论和目标导向,确定输变电工程造价风险管理目标特征域结构,将项目造价风险管理目标分解到每一个环节,建立具有一定层次结构的输变电工程造价管理目标体系和风险评价指标分类表,使决策者全面了解引起工程造价产生偏差的风险因素,从而更有效地开展风险评估和风险控制工作.%Project risk factors identification method and means for subsequent right usefulness has a great impact on the pro -ject risk assessment and risk control and power transmission and transformation project .A long construction cycle ,many uncertain factors and complicated system with multiple stakeholders , resulting in the project cost has a strong uncertainty and risk factors i-dentification is a multi-level complex process .The traditional risk identification methods are difficult to comprehensive system to identify the risk factors .Based on feature mapping theory and goal orientation ,determine the power transmission and transforma-tion project cost risk management target feature domain structure ,and the cost of the project risk management goal decomposition to each link,established a certain hierarchy of power transmission and transformation project cost management target system and risk evaluation index system ,enables decision makers to know cause project cost risk factor in the production of deviation ,thus further effective in risk assessment and risk control work.

  19. Evaluation Model for Bidding Risk of BOT Project of Passenger Dedicated Line%铁路客运专线BOT项目投标方案风险评价模型

    许亚敏; 肖朝乾


    Research purposes: With the shortage of construction funds and inadequate infrastructure being increasingly prominent in China, to speed up the construction of railways and other infrastructure with the commonly - used BOT mode in the world is inevitable of the development of the era. The bidding scheme quality is crucial to the success bidding. As the BOT project has the features of long construction period, large construction investment, needing complex technology, many changeable factors and big project risk, the bidder will take the big risk when drawing up the bidding scheme.Research conclusions: Staring with the system theory, the decision - making evaluation index system is established for the bidding scheme for the BOT project of passenger dedicated line and the evaluation is made with grey situation decision - making model. In the railway BOT project, there are lots of factors to influence the project risks and it is difficult to determine the relations among the influence factors. Now the commonly - used evaluation methods include thecomprehensive fuzzy evaluation model, ANN model and so on. These methods have their own advantages, but also they have disadvantages. With these methods, the differences of the comprehensive optimization index values are not obvious of various schemes and the model results are affected by the objective factors. Especially, with these methods, the high risks of railway BOT project can not be considered. The result of the model presented in this paper can not be affected by the objective factors, so this model is more accurate and effective in revealing the differences of the comprehensive optimization index values of various bidding schemes. This model has universal property, so it can be available for BOT projects of the highway and power supply.%研究目的:随着我国建设资金短缺和基础设施不足的矛盾日益突出,采用国际上流行的BOT方式加快铁路等基础设施的建设已是时代发展的必

  20. Identifying and managing risk in international construction projects

    Sachin Kerur


    Full Text Available Over the last decade, major construction projects have increasingly arisen in countries or regions that lack specialist, expert construction contractors, suppliers and consultants. Steps are being taken by governments in the Middle East, Eastern Europe, China, India and developing markets to address national infrastructure deficits, and by so doing, are creating new regions of booming construction demand. When coupled with anaemic growth in developed markets such as the United Kingdom, the USA and Western Europe, foreign markets present attractive opportunities to the global construction industry. However, foreign markets are littered with the cautionary tales of international contractors and consultants that have failed to grasp the intricacies and risks of operating in a new environment and have failed to capitalise on the opportunities available. By identifying the classes of risks, and undertaking detailed analysis, ranking and mitigation of relevant jurisdictional risks, participants in international construction projects will increase the likelihood of project success and commercial longevity in the new jurisdiction. Risk identification and assessment is not a science but an art, and while there are many potential approaches to the issue, we propose that our strategies for identifying, assessing, ranking and mitigating jurisdictional risks offer new international players a good chance of commercial success.

  1. Risk Quantification and Evaluation Modelling

    Manmohan Singh


    Full Text Available In this paper authors have discussed risk quantification methods and evaluation of risks and decision parameter to be used for deciding on ranking of the critical items, for prioritization of condition monitoring based risk and reliability centered maintenance (CBRRCM. As time passes any equipment or any product degrades into lower effectiveness and the rate of failure or malfunctioning increases, thereby lowering the reliability. Thus with the passage of time or a number of active tests or periods of work, the reliability of the product or the system, may fall down to a low value known as a threshold value, below which the reliability should not be allowed to dip. Hence, it is necessary to fix up the normal basis for determining the appropriate points in the product life cycle where predictive preventive maintenance may be applied in the programme so that the reliability (the probability of successful functioning can be enhanced, preferably to its original value, by reducing the failure rate and increasing the mean time between failure. It is very important for defence application where reliability is a prime work. An attempt is made to develop mathematical model for risk assessment and ranking them. Based on likeliness coefficient β1 and risk coefficient β2 ranking of the sub-systems can be modelled and used for CBRRCM.Defence Science Journal, Vol. 64, No. 4, July 2014, pp. 378-384, DOI: 

  2. The Financial Impact of Risk Factors Affecting Project Cost Contingency: Evidential Reasoning Method

    Emmanuel Abeere-Inga


    Full Text Available The process of cost modeling using risk analysis for construction projects is very crucial for the achievement of project success. The purpose of this paper is to present an analysis of the financial impact of risk factors affecting key construction work sections; using a systematic risk methodology based on empirical judgment. The failure mode effect analysis (FMEA and the evidential reasoning methods are presented as qualitative and quantitative risk tools respectively. Data analysis from structured questionnaires revealed that four work sections are prone to high scope changes contemporaneous with seven risk factors. Contrary to the usual 10% contingency estimate allowed for construction projects in Ghana, an approximate overall physical contingency range of between 13.36% and 17.88% was determined using evidential reasoning methods. The likely impact of the integrated work sections and risk factors provide a clue to estimators on how to estimate and account for project cost contingency. The research concludes by recommending a framework for improving the estimation process of cost contingency through the integration of efficient risk management strategies, cost estimation and design management process.

  3. Teaching mathematical modelling through project work

    Blomhøj, Morten; Kjeldsen, Tinne Hoff


    are reported in manners suitable for internet publication for colleagues. The reports and the related discussions reveal interesting dilemmas concerning the teaching of mathematical modelling and how to cope with these through “setting the scene” for the students modelling projects and through dialogues...... in their own classes, evaluate and report a project based problem oriented course in mathematical modelling. The in-service course runs over one semester and includes three seminars of 3, 1 and 2 days. Experiences show that the course objectives in general are fulfilled and that the course projects......The paper presents and analyses experiences from developing and running an in-service course in project work and mathematical modelling for mathematics teachers in the Danish gymnasium, e.g. upper secondary level, grade 10-12. The course objective is to support the teachers to develop, try out...

  4. Causal Models for Safety Assurance Technologies Project

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Fulfillment of NASA's System-Wide Safety and Assurance Technology (SSAT) project at NASA requires leveraging vast amounts of data into actionable knowledge. Models...

  5. Teaching mathematical modelling through project work

    Blomhøj, Morten; Kjeldsen, Tinne Hoff


    The paper presents and analyses experiences from developing and running an in-service course in project work and mathematical modelling for mathematics teachers in the Danish gymnasium, e.g. upper secondary level, grade 10-12. The course objective is to support the teachers to develop, try out...... in their own classes, evaluate and report a project based problem oriented course in mathematical modelling. The in-service course runs over one semester and includes three seminars of 3, 1 and 2 days. Experiences show that the course objectives in general are fulfilled and that the course projects...... are reported in manners suitable for internet publication for colleagues. The reports and the related discussions reveal interesting dilemmas concerning the teaching of mathematical modelling and how to cope with these through “setting the scene” for the students modelling projects and through dialogues...

  6. Developing Project Duration Models in Software Engineering

    Pierre Bourque; Serge Oligny; Alain Abran; Bertrand Fournier


    Based on the empirical analysis of data contained in the International Software Benchmarking Standards Group(ISBSG) repository, this paper presents software engineering project duration models based on project effort. Duration models are built for the entire dataset and for subsets of projects developed for personal computer, mid-range and mainframeplatforms. Duration models are also constructed for projects requiring fewer than 400 person-hours of effort and for projectsre quiring more than 400 person-hours of effort. The usefulness of adding the maximum number of assigned resources as asecond independent variable to explain duration is also analyzed. The opportunity to build duration models directly fromproject functional size in function points is investigated as well.


    Xiaoyun MO; Jieming ZHOU; Hui OU; Xiangqun YANG


    Given a new Double-Markov risk model DM =(μ,Q,v,H; Y,Z) and Double-Markov risk process U ={U(t),t ≥ 0}.The ruin or survival problem is addressed.Equations which the survival probability satisfied and the formulas of calculating survival probability are obtained.Recursion formulas of calculating the survival probability and analytic expression of recursion items are obtained.The conclusions are expressed by Q matrix for a Markov chain and transition probabilities for another Markov Chain.

  8. Custom map projections for regional groundwater models

    Kuniansky, Eve L.


    For regional groundwater flow models (areas greater than 100,000 km2), improper choice of map projection parameters can result in model error for boundary conditions dependent on area (recharge or evapotranspiration simulated by application of a rate using cell area from model discretization) and length (rivers simulated with head-dependent flux boundary). Smaller model areas can use local map coordinates, such as State Plane (United States) or Universal Transverse Mercator (correct zone) without introducing large errors. Map projections vary in order to preserve one or more of the following properties: area, shape, distance (length), or direction. Numerous map projections are developed for different purposes as all four properties cannot be preserved simultaneously. Preservation of area and length are most critical for groundwater models. The Albers equal-area conic projection with custom standard parallels, selected by dividing the length north to south by 6 and selecting standard parallels 1/6th above or below the southern and northern extent, preserves both area and length for continental areas in mid latitudes oriented east-west. Custom map projection parameters can also minimize area and length error in non-ideal projections. Additionally, one must also use consistent vertical and horizontal datums for all geographic data. The generalized polygon for the Floridan aquifer system study area (306,247.59 km2) is used to provide quantitative examples of the effect of map projections on length and area with different projections and parameter choices. Use of improper map projection is one model construction problem easily avoided.

  9. Risk management for engineering projects procedures, methods and tools

    Munier, Nolberto


    Many people see risk in engineering projects as an imprecise and nebulous problem - something that exists, is feared and is impossible to deal with. Nothing could be further from the truth. While risk is certainly ubiquitous, sometimes difficult to detect, and cannot always be completely avoided, it can generally be mitigated, reduced or prevented through timely analysis and action.   This book covers the entire process of risk management by providing methodologies for determining the sources of project risk, and once threats have been identified, managing them through:   ·         identification and assessment (probability, relative importance, variables, risk breakdown structure, etc.) ·         implementation of measures for their prevention, reduction or mitigation ·         evaluation of impacts and quantification of risks ·         establishment of control measures   It also considers sensitivity analysis to determine the influence of uncertain parameters values ...

  10. Modeling data quality for risk assessment of GIS


    This paper presents a methodology to determine three data quality (DQ) risk characteristics: accuracy, comprehensiveness and nonmembership. The methodology provides a set of quantitative models to confirm the information quality risks for the database of the geographical information system (GIS). Four quantitative measures are introduced to examine how the quality risks of source information affect the quality of information outputs produced using the relational algebra operations Selection, Projection, and...

  11. Risk management

    McManus, John


    Few projects are completed on time, on budget, and to their original requirement or specifications. Focusing on what project managers need to know about risk in the pursuit of delivering projects, Risk Management covers key components of the risk management process and the software development process, as well as best practices for risk identification, risk planning, and risk analysis. The book examines risk planning, risk analysis responses to risk, the tracking and modelling of risks, intel...

  12. Fire risks in forest carbon projects in Indonesia

    Daniel; Murdiyarso; Makmur; Widodo; Desi; Suyamto


    It is well known that forest carbon or sink projects have not been included in the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), one of the flexible mechanismscreated under the Kyoto Protocol. The main concern for postponing sink projectsis related to issues of methodology and integrity. Project eligibility needs tobe judged in a transparent manner if they are real, measurable, provide long-term benefits to mitigate climate change, and provide additional benefits to thosethat would occur in the absence of a certified project.One of the biggest challenges in implementing sink projects is fire risks and the associated biophysical and socio-economic underlying causes. This study attempts to assess fire probability and use it as a tool to estimate fire risk in carbon sink projects. Fire risks may not only threaten ongoing projects but may also cause leakage of carbon stocks in other areas, especially in protected areas. This exercise was carried out in the Berbak National Park located in Jambi Province, Sumatra, Indonesia and the surrounding areas. Fire probability is associated with (i) the means by which access to a given area is possible, and (ii) vegetation type or fuel load. Although most fires were intentionally ignited, fire escape is common and is enhanced by long spell of dryweather. When this occurs, secondary road was the most frequently used means, and it was certainly the case during 1997/1998 big fires when damage to natural vegetation (natural and secondary forests) was substantial. Burnt natural vegetation was 120000 ha or 95% of the total burnt areas, and released more than 7 Mt of carbon into the atmosphere.

  13. Quantile uncertainty and value-at-risk model risk.

    Alexander, Carol; Sarabia, José María


    This article develops a methodology for quantifying model risk in quantile risk estimates. The application of quantile estimates to risk assessment has become common practice in many disciplines, including hydrology, climate change, statistical process control, insurance and actuarial science, and the uncertainty surrounding these estimates has long been recognized. Our work is particularly important in finance, where quantile estimates (called Value-at-Risk) have been the cornerstone of banking risk management since the mid 1980s. A recent amendment to the Basel II Accord recommends additional market risk capital to cover all sources of "model risk" in the estimation of these quantiles. We provide a novel and elegant framework whereby quantile estimates are adjusted for model risk, relative to a benchmark which represents the state of knowledge of the authority that is responsible for model risk. A simulation experiment in which the degree of model risk is controlled illustrates how to quantify Value-at-Risk model risk and compute the required regulatory capital add-on for banks. An empirical example based on real data shows how the methodology can be put into practice, using only two time series (daily Value-at-Risk and daily profit and loss) from a large bank. We conclude with a discussion of potential applications to nonfinancial risks.


    Sergei A. Arustamov


    Full Text Available The paper deals with mathematical model presentation of cash flows in project funding. We describe different types of expenses linked to university project activities. Problems of project budgeting that contribute most uncertainty have been revealed. As an example of the model implementation we consider calculation of vacation allowance expenses for project participants. We define problems of forecast for funds reservation: calculation based on methodology established by the Ministry of Education and Science calculation according to the vacation schedule and prediction of the most probable amount. A stochastic model for vacation allowance expenses has been developed. We have proposed methods and solution of the problems that increase the accuracy of forecasting for funds reservation based on 2015 data.

  15. Base Flow Model Validation Project

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The program focuses on turbulence modeling enhancements for predicting high-speed rocket base flows. A key component of the effort is the collection of high-fidelity...

  16. Marshal: Maintaining Evolving Models Project

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — SIFT proposes to design and develop the Marshal system, a mixed-initiative tool for maintaining task models over the course of evolving missions. Marshal-enabled...

  17. Advanced Spacecraft Thermal Modeling Project

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — For spacecraft developers who spend millions to billions of dollars per unit and require 3 to 7 years to deploy, the LoadPath reduced-order (RO) modeling thermal...

  18. Base Flow Model Validation Project

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The innovation is the systematic "building-block" validation of CFD/turbulence models employing a GUI driven CFD code (RPFM) and existing as well as new data sets to...

  19. Model risk analysis for risk management and option pricing

    Kerkhof, F.L.J.


    Due to the growing complexity of products in financial markets, market participants rely more and more on quantitative models for trading and risk management decisions. This introduces a fairly new type of risk, namely, model risk. In the first part of this thesis we investigate the quantitative inf

  20. Allocating risk capital for a brownfields redevelopment project under hydrogeological and financial uncertainty.

    Yu, Soonyoung; Unger, Andre J A; Parker, Beth; Kim, Taehee


    In this study, we defined risk capital as the contingency fee or insurance premium that a brownfields redeveloper needs to set aside from the sale of each house in case they need to repurchase it at a later date because the indoor air has been detrimentally affected by subsurface contamination. The likelihood that indoor air concentrations will exceed a regulatory level subject to subsurface heterogeneity and source zone location uncertainty is simulated by a physics-based hydrogeological model using Monte Carlo realizations, yielding the probability of failure. The cost of failure is the future value of the house indexed to the stochastic US National Housing index. The risk capital is essentially the probability of failure times the cost of failure with a surcharge to compensate the developer against hydrogeological and financial uncertainty, with the surcharge acting as safety loading reflecting the developers' level of risk aversion. We review five methodologies taken from the actuarial and financial literature to price the risk capital for a highly stylized brownfield redevelopment project, with each method specifically adapted to accommodate our notion of the probability of failure. The objective of this paper is to develop an actuarially consistent approach for combining the hydrogeological and financial uncertainty into a contingency fee that the brownfields developer should reserve (i.e. the risk capital) in order to hedge their risk exposure during the project. Results indicate that the price of the risk capital is much more sensitive to hydrogeological rather than financial uncertainty. We use the Capital Asset Pricing Model to estimate the risk-adjusted discount rate to depreciate all costs to present value for the brownfield redevelopment project. A key outcome of this work is that the presentation of our risk capital valuation methodology is sufficiently generalized for application to a wide variety of engineering projects. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier

  1. Development of a risk-based environmental management tool for drilling discharges. Summary of a four-year project

    Singsaas, I.; Rye, H.; Frost, T.K.; Smit, M.G.D.; Garpestad, E.


    This paper briefly summarizes the ERMS project and presents the developed model by showing results from environmental fates and risk calculations of a discharge from offshore drilling operations. The developed model calculates environmental risks for the water column and sediments resulting from exp

  2. The Construction of Risk Factors Analysis Model of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Project Based on Grounded Theory%基于扎根理论的水利水电项目风险因素分析模型构建



    水利水电项目作为一项复杂的系统工程,其风险管理对项目建设具有非常重要的意义。运用扎根理论研究方法,构建水利水电项目风险因素分析模型,探索水利水电项目的主要风险因素。研究发现,水利水电项目的风险因素分为4个维度:制度层风险、环境层风险、利益相关者层风险和项目管理层风险,上述因素相互协调,共同作用,对项目建设具有不可确定的影响。%As a complicated systems engineering, water conservancy and hydropower project's risk management has very important significance for project construction. Using the Grounded Theory as the research method to build the risk factor analysis model of water conservancy and hydropower project,and then explore the main risk factors of water conservancy and hydropower project.By studies,water conservancy and hydropower project's risk factors can be divided into four di⁃mensions: namely system risk; environment risk; stakeholders risk and project management risk.Coordinated with each other, the above factors work together, thus having uncertain impacts on projects construction.


    Sandra Milena CHOLES ARVILLA


    Full Text Available This paper is based upon the research undertaken for the development of the doctoral thesis “Management of software projects based on object-oriented technology”. The study examines the existing risk management practices commonly used for classic software development. The goal is to integrate the elements of the traditional risk management methodologies to create a new agile risk management methodology. The thesis focuses on techniques that can be easily implemented in extreme programming (XP and SCRUM. This study is motivated by the following research questions: What are the elements of existing quality assurance tools that could meet the principles of agile development? And is it possible to use risk estimation for improving quality in agile projects? The thesis presents a synthesis of the most common risk management techniques, as well as an introduction to agile methods XP and SCRUM. The proposal integrates the concepts of Failure Mode and Effect Analysis into the iterative life cycle of an agile software project. The thesis presents a metamodel which integrates the concepts of agile development methodologies: SCRUM and XP with the FMEA concepts for risk quantification. The model was partly implemented into a real development project. Partial results show the improvement in early identification of failures and allowed to reconsider the Sprint plan.

  4. The risk model of project portfolio based on interaction effect and phase structure%交互效应下具有阶段结构的项目组合风险模型

    郑唯唯; 王敏; 杨菊欢


    为研究交互效应下具有阶段结构的两项目组合风险,借鉴生物种群动力学理论,建立具有阶段结构的交互效应下项目组合风险模型。进而得到该系统平衡点的全局稳定性的充分条件,实现了项目组合风险系统模型的实时刻画。该方法可随环境变化灵活调整系统参数,且拓展了生物数学在项目组合管理中的应用。最后通过数值模拟验证该方法的有效性。%To study the tendency of the risk of two‐project‐portfolio under the interaction effect with phase structure ,the corresponding mathematical model is established by using the theory of biological population dynamics .Moreover ,the global stability of the equilibrium point of the system is obtained and the sufficient conditions of persistence of the system are given .These results provide theoretical support for real‐time characterization of project portfolio risk change and effective risk aversion .The system parameters of the method can be flexibly adjusted ac‐cording to the changing environment .Meanwhile ,the bio‐mathematical applications in portfo‐lio management is expanded .Finally ,The validation of the method is verified through numeri‐cal simulation .

  5. Managing geotechnical risk on US design-build transport projects

    Kevin McLain


    Full Text Available Awarding design-build (DB contracts before a complete subsurface investigation is completed, makes mitigating the risk of differing site conditions difficult, if not impossible. The purpose of the study was to identify effective practices for managing geotechnical risk in DB projects, and it reports the results of a survey that included responses from 42 of 50 US state departments of transportation and a content analysis of DB requests for proposals from 26 states to gauge the client’s perspective, as well as 11 structured interviews with DB contractors to obtain the perspective from the other side of the DB contract.  A suite of DB geotechnical risk manage tools is presented based on the results of the analysis. Effective practices were found in three areas: enhancing communications on geotechnical issues before final proposals are submitted; the use of project-specific differing site conditions clauses; and expediting geotechnical design reviews after award. The major finding is that contract verbiage alone is not sufficient to transfer the risk of changed site conditions. The agency must actively communicate all the geotechnical information on hand at the time of the DB procurement and develop a contract strategy that reduces/retires the risk of geotechnical uncertainty as expeditiously as possible after award.

  6. Managing geotechnical risk on US design-build transport projects

    Kevin McLain


    Full Text Available Awarding design-build (DB contracts before a complete subsurface investigation is completed, makes mitigating the risk of differing site conditions difficult, if not impossible. The purpose of the study was to identify effective practices for managing geotechnical risk in DB projects, and it reports the results of a survey that included responses from 42 of 50 US state departments of transportation and a content analysis of DB requests for proposals from 26 states to gauge the client’s perspective, as well as 11 structured interviews with DB contractors to obtain the perspective from the other side of the DB contract.  A suite of DB geotechnical risk manage tools is presented based on the results of the analysis. Effective practices were found in three areas: enhancing communications on geotechnical issues before final proposals are submitted; the use of project-specific differing site conditions clauses; and expediting geotechnical design reviews after award. The major finding is that contract verbiage alone is not sufficient to transfer the risk of changed site conditions. The agency must actively communicate all the geotechnical information on hand at the time of the DB procurement and develop a contract strategy that reduces/retires the risk of geotechnical uncertainty as expeditiously as possible after award.

  7. Risk assessment method of major unsafe hydroelectric project


    Based on the characteristics of major unsafe hydroelectric projects and the data from field detection, in situ monitoring, and regular safety inspection, the funda-mental principles of operation risk assessment are proposed in this paper. Mean-while, a three layer hierarchical system is constructed, and an improved analytical hierarchical process combining genetic algorithm and analytical hierarchical process is established, with corresponding program. The operation risk of some unsafe dam was assessed with the principles, method and program presented in this paper and the major factors which would affect the operation of the dam were pointed out.

  8. Risk assessment method of major unsafe hydroelectric project

    WU ZhongRu; SU HuaiZhi; GUO HaiQing


    Based on the characteristics of major unsafe hydroelectric projects and the data from field detection, in situ monitoring, and regular safety inspection, the funda- menial principles of operation risk assessment are proposed in this paper. Mean- while, a three layer hierarchical system is constructed, and an improved analytical hierarchical process combining genetic algorithm and analytical hierarchical process is established, with corresponding program. The operation risk of some unsafe dam was assessed with the principles, method and program presented in this paper and the major factors which would affect the operation of the dam were pointed out.

  9. Cost Risk Evaluation Model of Power Transmission & Transformation Project Based on the Monte Carlo Method%基于蒙特卡罗法的输变电工程造价风险评估模型



    在工程量清单计价模式下,由于招标工程量与竣工工程量存在差异,投标单位采用不平衡报价,会导致建设管理单位存在超概算的风险。本文在深入分析投标单位投标策略的基础上,构建不平衡最优报价模型,得出投标单位的最优报价;然后以山西省某输变电工程为例,采用蒙特卡罗模拟法,构建了输变电工程造价风险评估模型,对建设管理单位所面临的风险进行了度量,并提出改进措施,以减少超概算发生的概率。研究结果对工程造价管理具有一定指导意义,可以规范招投标规则,使输变电工程建设健康、合理、可持续地发展。%In the bill-of-quantity mode, as there are some di- fferences between bidding engineering quantity and compl- eted engineering quantity, the unbalanced quotation adopted by bidding companies may lead to the probable risk to construc- tion companies. Based on the thorough analysis on the bidding strategies of bidding companies the optimal unbalanced biddi- ng model was built to acquire the optimum price quotation. Then, with Monte Carlo simulation method cost risk evaluati- on model of power transmission and transformation projects was built to measure the risk of construction companies. The appropriate measures were used according to the risk scale, which could minimize the happening of excess budgetary esti- mate. The research results have guiding significance to the en- gineering cost management, and wil standardize the bidding rules for the health, reasonable and sustainable development of the construction of power transmission and transformation pr- ojects.

  10. Model county ordinance for wind projects

    Bain, D.A. [Oregon Office of Energy, Portland, OR (United States)


    Permitting is a crucial step in the development cycle of a wind project and permits affect the timing, cost, location, feasibility, layout, and impacts of wind projects. Counties often have the lead responsibility for permitting yet few have appropriate siting regulations for wind projects. A model ordinance allows a county to quickly adopt appropriate permitting procedures. The model county wind ordinance developed for use by northwest states is generally applicable across the country and counties seeking to adopt siting or zoning regulations for wind will find it a good starting place. The model includes permitting procedures for wind measurement devices and two types of wind systems. Both discretionary and nondiscretionary standards apply to wind systems and a conditional use permit would be issued. The standards, criteria, conditions for approval, and process procedures are defined for each. Adaptation examples for the four northwest states are provided along with a model Wind Resource Overlay Zone.

  11. Urban Drainage Modeling and Flood Risk Management

    Schmitt, Theo G.; Thomas, Martin

    The European research project in the EUREKA framework, RisUrSim (Σ!2255) has been worked out by a project consortium including industrial mathematics and water engineering research institutes, municipal drainage works as well as an insurance company. The overall objective has been the development of a simulation to allow flood risk analysis and cost-effective management for urban drainage systems. In view of the regulatory background of European Standard EN 752, the phenomenon of urban flooding caused by surcharged sewer systems in urban drainage systems is analyzed, leading to the necessity of dual drainage modeling. A detailed dual drainage simulation model is described based upon hydraulic flow routing procedures for surface flow and pipe flow. Special consideration is given to the interaction between surface and sewer flow in order to most accurately compute water levels above ground as a basis for further assessment of possible damage costs. The model application is presented for small case study in terms of data needs, model verification, and first simulation results.

  12. NGNP Risk Management Database: A Model for Managing Risk

    John Collins


    To facilitate the implementation of the Risk Management Plan, the Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) Project has developed and employed an analytical software tool called the NGNP Risk Management System (RMS). A relational database developed in Microsoft® Access, the RMS provides conventional database utility including data maintenance, archiving, configuration control, and query ability. Additionally, the tool’s design provides a number of unique capabilities specifically designed to facilitate the development and execution of activities outlined in the Risk Management Plan. Specifically, the RMS provides the capability to establish the risk baseline, document and analyze the risk reduction plan, track the current risk reduction status, organize risks by reference configuration system, subsystem, and component (SSC) and Area, and increase the level of NGNP decision making.

  13. Overview of Graphical User Interface for ARRBOD (Acute Radiation Risk and BRYNTRN Organ Dose Projection)

    Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Hu, Shaowen; Nounu, Hatem; Cucinotta, Francis A.

    Solar particle events (SPEs) pose the risk of acute radiation sickness (ARS) to astronauts be-cause organ doses from large SPEs may reach critical levels during extra vehicular activities (EVAs) or lightly shielded spacecraft. NASA has developed an organ dose projection model of Baryon transport code (BRYNTRN) with an output data processing module of SUMDOSE, and a probabilistic model of acute radiation risk (ARR). BRYNTRN code operation requires extensive input preparation, and the risk projection models of organ doses and ARR take the output from BRYNTRN as an input to their calculations. With a graphical user interface (GUI) to handle input and output for BRYNTRN, these response models can be connected easily and correctly to BRYNTRN in a user-friendly way. The GUI for the Acute Radiation Risk and BRYNTRN Organ Dose (ARRBOD) projection code provides seamless integration of input and output manipulations required for operations of the ARRBOD modules: BRYNTRN, SUMDOSE, and the ARR probabilistic response model. The ARRBOD GUI is intended for mission planners, radiation shield designers, space operations in the mission operations direc-torate (MOD), and space biophysics researchers. Assessment of astronauts' organ doses and ARS from the exposure to historically large SPEs is in support of mission design and opera-tion planning to avoid ARS and stay within the current NASA short-term dose limits. The ARRBOD GUI will serve as a proof-of-concept for future integration of other risk projection models for human space applications. We present an overview of the ARRBOD GUI prod-uct, which is a new self-contained product, for the major components of the overall system, subsystem interconnections, and external interfaces.


    Dimas Endro W


    Full Text Available Ship converting has become as prospective activity in ship building area. Operational and economical aspect are the most dominant rationale. Baseon a new fuction of converted ship, a task list which contain several jobs that must be done is listed. This accomplishment schedule not only contain a task list, but also duration for certain job title. In practical apllication job duration is maintained based on experience of project manager.  Further more, total accomplish duration is setted as time accomplishment for the project. This setted time has become reference for the project bid. Occasionaly, if accomplishment time which offered is strict, than schedule slip become as potencial nightmare. For this situation, project manager has had a cristal clearconsideration to select a proper decision wheter he will take the tender offer or not. practically, project mananger has layed on his experience to handle previous project and face  penalty if the project delayed. This paper focussed on how to measure tender offer based on risk analysis, specially for converted ship tender which has a strike time accomplishment.A new application method to analysis proposed tender based on time and penalty parameter has become a topic of this paper.

  15. POMP - Pervasive Object Model Project

    Schougaard, Kari Rye; Schultz, Ulrik Pagh

    applications, we consider it essential that a standard object-oriented style of programming can be used for those parts of the application that do not concern its mobility. This position paper describes an ongoing effort to implement a language and a virtual machine for applications that execute in a pervasive...... mobility. Mobile agent platforms are often based on such virtual machines, but typically do not provide strong mobility (the ability to migrate at any program point), and have limited support for multi-threaded applications, although there are exceptions. For a virtual machine to support mobile...... computing environment. This system, named POM (Pervasive Object Model), supports applications split into coarse-grained, strongly mobile units that communicate using method invocations through proxies. We are currently investigating efficient execution of mobile applications, scalability to suit...

  16. World Energy Projection System model documentation

    Hutzler, M.J.; Anderson, A.T.


    The World Energy Projection System (WEPS) was developed by the Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting within the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the independent statistical and analytical agency of the US Department of Energy. WEPS is an integrated set of personal computer based spreadsheets containing data compilations, assumption specifications, descriptive analysis procedures, and projection models. The WEPS accounting framework incorporates projections from independently documented models and assumptions about the future energy intensity of economic activity (ratios of total energy consumption divided by gross domestic product GDP), and about the rate of incremental energy requirements met by natural gas, coal, and renewable energy sources (hydroelectricity, geothermal, solar, wind, biomass, and other renewable resources). Projections produced by WEPS are published in the annual report, International Energy Outlook. This report documents the structure and procedures incorporated in the 1998 version of the WEPS model. It has been written to provide an overview of the structure of the system and technical details about the operation of each component of the model for persons who wish to know how WEPS projections are produced by EIA.

  17. Resilience and risk management in the urban project

    Veyron, Jessica; Becue, Vincent; El Meouche, Rani; Barroca, Bruno


    Our study focus on the recourse of resilience concept in an urban environment coupled with risk management concerns. The urban resilience is subject to interpretation according to the expertise fields and the using context. It brings underlying concepts of time and space out. For its part, the urban environment is complex because of the elements multitude which makes up it on a dense area as much humanly, structurally, materially as functionally. The resilience polysemy rediscovers within the risk management and is confronted with the operational expectation that she arouses in this field. Between absorption, recovery, adaptability or else effectiveness, the level of requirement of the urban area could be abundant and varied to a system to another and in front of a risk to another. The capability of the urban systems to integrate the outstanding risk scope could be reinforce through the use of spatialisation tools. The access to these knowledge more and more widespread makes the changing of spatial and temporal scales thought easier in the urban project approach along with the sharing of citizen and territorial actions and innovations. Our work gets into position between resilience and urban planning. Based on bibliography and urban planning feedback in front of risks, we envisage to study the achievement of the urban planning in the field of vulnerable districts or buildings. Our aim tends torwards characterise urban resilience in risk field through spatialisation tool setting up.

  18. Risk Evaluation on UHV Power Transmission Construction Project Based on AHP and FCE Method

    Huiru Zhao


    Full Text Available Ultra high voltage (UHV power transmission construction project is a high-tech power grid construction project which faces many risks and uncertainty. Identifying the risk of UHV power transmission construction project can help mitigate the risk loss and promote the smooth construction. The risk evaluation on “Zhejiang-Fuzhou” UHV power transmission construction project was performed based on analytic hierarchy process (AHP and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (FCE method in this paper. After the risk evaluation index system was built, the AHP was used to determine the weights of risk indicators, and the FCE method was to perform the risk evaluation. The evaluation result shows that (1 “Zhejiang-Fuzhou” UHV power transmission construction project has moderate risk, which indicates the occurrence probability of project risk is medium and the risk occurrence will cause general loss for project, (2 “society risk” has the highest level, and the next is “policy and law risk,” “technique risk,” “natural environmental risk,” and “Management risk,” respectively, and it should keep main eye on the social risk, policy and law risk, and technique risk. Finally, according to the risk evaluation result, the specific risk control recommendations were proposed for the smooth construction of this project.

  19. Researches on Key Risk Factor and Mechanism of Large Construction Project Based on Interpretative Structural Model%基于结构方程模型的大型工程建设项目关键风险因素及作用机理研究

    郭晓; 杨乃定; 邵予工; 董铁牛


    A modeling framework is put forward on perceived risks of key risk factors, based on distinctive characteristics of large construction project in China. The result based on data analysis shows that the key risk factors are environmental risk factor,technical risk factor,organization management risk factor,subcontractor management risk factor and environmental protection risk factor. Furthermore,interpretative structural model are used to analysis the hierarchical relationship among risk factors and mechanisms. These research findings are constructive in both theory and practice to the large construction project of China.%在分析我国大型工程建设项目风险特征的基础上,构建项目风险识别框架.并通过因子分析识别出自然环境、技术、组织管理、资源管理、分包商管理、环保等6方面是大型工程建设项目的关键风险因素.此外,还研究了大型工程建设项目关键风险因素的作用机理及作用模型,并采用结构方程模型检验.

  20. Risk and return of project-based climate change mitigation: a portfolio approach

    Laurikka, H. [Helsinki University of Technology (Finland). Laboratory for Energy Economics and Power Plant Engineering; Springer, U. [ECOPLAN, Bern (Switzerland)


    We present a framework for evaluating the risks of investments in climate change mitigation projects to generate emission credits. Risk factors that influence the quantity of emission credits are identified for six project types. Since not all project types are affected by the same factors, diversification is a viable risk reduction strategy. We propose a methodology for quantifying risk and return of such investments, discuss data requirements, and illustrate it using a sample of voluntary projects. In our sample, the returns of an optimally diversified low-risk portfolio are up to 10 times higher than those of single projects, holding risk exposure constant. (author)


    S. Munapo


    Full Text Available

    ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This paper presents a new procedure for analysing and managing activity sequences in projects. The new procedure determines critical activities, critical path, start times, free floats, crash limits, and other useful information without the use of the network model. Even though network models have been successfully used in project management so far, there are weaknesses associated with the use. A network is not easy to generate, and dummies that are usually associated with it make the network diagram complex – and dummy activities have no meaning in the original project management problem. The network model for projects can be avoided while still obtaining all the useful information that is required for project management. What are required are the activities, their accurate durations, and their predecessors.

    AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die navorsing beskryf ’n nuwerwetse metode vir die ontleding en bestuur van die sekwensiële aktiwiteite van projekte. Die voorgestelde metode bepaal kritiese aktiwiteite, die kritieke pad, aanvangstye, speling, verhasing, en ander groothede sonder die gebruik van ’n netwerkmodel. Die metode funksioneer bevredigend in die praktyk, en omseil die administratiewe rompslomp van die tradisionele netwerkmodelle.

  2. Unsaturated Zone Flow Model Expert Elicitation Project

    Coppersmith, K. J.


    This report presents results of the Unsaturated Zone Flow Model Expert Elicitation (UZFMEE) project at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. This project was sponsored by the US Department of Energy (DOE) and managed by Geomatrix Consultants, Inc. (Geomatrix), for TRW Environmental Safety Systems, Inc. The objective of this project was to identify and assess the uncertainties associated with certain key components of the unsaturated zone flow system at Yucca Mountain. This assessment reviewed the data inputs, modeling approaches, and results of the unsaturated zone flow model (termed the ''UZ site-scale model'') being developed by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) and the US Geological Survey (USGS). In addition to data input and modeling issues, the assessment focused on percolation flux (volumetric flow rate per unit cross-sectional area) at the potential repository horizon. An understanding of unsaturated zone processes is critical to evaluating the performance of the potential high-level nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain. A major goal of the project was to capture the uncertainties involved in assessing the unsaturated flow processes, including uncertainty in both the models used to represent physical controls on unsaturated zone flow and the parameter values used in the models. To ensure that the analysis included a wide range of perspectives, multiple individual judgments were elicited from members of an expert panel. The panel members, who were experts from within and outside the Yucca Mountain project, represented a range of experience and expertise. A deliberate process was followed in facilitating interactions among the experts, in training them to express their uncertainties, and in eliciting their interpretations. The resulting assessments and probability distributions, therefore, provide a reasonable aggregate representation of the knowledge and uncertainties about key issues regarding the unsaturated zone at the Yucca

  3. Risk matrix model for rotating equipment

    Wassan Rano Khan


    Full Text Available Different industries have various residual risk levels for their rotating equipment. Accordingly the occurrence rate of the failures and associated failure consequences categories are different. Thus, a generalized risk matrix model is developed in this study which can fit various available risk matrix standards. This generalized risk matrix will be helpful to develop new risk matrix, to fit the required risk assessment scenario for rotating equipment. Power generation system was taken as case study. It was observed that eight subsystems were under risk. Only vibration monitor system was under high risk category, while remaining seven subsystems were under serious and medium risk categories.

  4. ePORT, NASA's Computer Database Program for System Safety Risk Management Oversight (Electronic Project Online Risk Tool)

    Johnson, Paul W.


    ePORT (electronic Project Online Risk Tool) provides a systematic approach to using an electronic database program to manage a program/project risk management processes. This presentation will briefly cover the standard risk management procedures, then thoroughly cover NASA's Risk Management tool called ePORT. This electronic Project Online Risk Tool (ePORT) is a web-based risk management program that provides a common framework to capture and manage risks, independent of a programs/projects size and budget. It is used to thoroughly cover the risk management paradigm providing standardized evaluation criterion for common management reporting, ePORT improves Product Line, Center and Corporate Management insight, simplifies program/project manager reporting, and maintains an archive of data for historical reference.

  5. Discussion on Risk Management of EPC Project under the Contractual Consortium Model%契约型联合体模式下的EPC项目风险管理探讨

    李习清; 辛浩田


    承包商采用联合体方式执行的EPC项目,在联合体各方分担部分项目风险的同时,也面临着一些新的风险.本文以契约型联合体模式为切入点,结合实际案例对这一模式下EPC项目所面临的各类风险进行深入分析,提出建议性应对措施,以期为联合体EPC项目的执行提供借鉴.%For EPC projects executed by the consortium form,although the parties of consortium share some risks,this way also faces some new risks. In this paper,subdivides the consortium into partnership consortium and contractual consortium. In contractual consortium as the breakthrough point,this paper makes a deep analysis of risks for contractual consortium EPC project based on actual case,and proposes some risk solutions, in order to provide a reference for the implementation of EPC projects.

  6. A Model for Crises Management in Software Projects

    Mohammad Tarawneh


    Full Text Available Today software projects are important part into almost every business application. It is quality, efficiency and effectiveness of these applications will determine the failure or success of many business solutions. Consequently, businesses often find that they need to have a competitive and efficient advantage through the development and improve of software projects that help critical business activities. The quality of a software project is determined by the quality of the software development process. Improvements in the development process can lead to significant improvement in software quality. Based on the foregoing risks and problems which may be software engineering project faced, we try to shed light on the mechanism of dealing with crises in software engineering projects in this research. This research suggests a set of rules and guidelines that help software project mangers to prevent and dealing with software project crises Also a model was proposed; the proposed model showed a set of steps that must be implemented in case of crises emerging or before it happen. The crisis management starts understanding it first and then to prepare a careful review of her as she is looking for regions or aspects of the turmoil and failures. The next step is the classification of crisis, then the preparation or design a plan attitudinal or contingency plan, which must be implemented immediately upon the occurrence of crisis. Finally, the final element is the implementation of the program or plan established soon after the crisis and it should be noted here that the project team of software engineering that have been trained on the virtual models of various crises, which helps in the development of managed, skills, and also that you should avoid or ignore the failure to acknowledge a problem when Start or try to be underestimated or taken lightly.

  7. Identification of Project Risks & Risk Breakdown Structure In Manufacture of Heavy Forgings



    Full Text Available Forging companies, especially in the business of manufacture of heavy forged parts are embedded in the supply chain of critical components of capital goods across various industries. These forged parts form a significant portion of the total raw material requirement of the capital goods equipment and is generally on the critical path of project schedule.Failure to meet delivery schedule poses huge threat to the success of the customer’s project. Delivery of these forged items is delayed in an event of failure to meet customer’s quality requirements.Various other uncertainties during the project lifecyclecan also cause delayed delivery. Accordingly, risk management methodologies when employed by the forging supplier to the manufacturing project can result in successful achievement of delivery timelines. The present study is intended to identify the risks (threats to quality and delivery in manufacture of heavy forged components and create a Risk breakdown structure (RBS as a reference for further risk planning by the forging supplier.

  8. Risk Management Adoption Framework for Software Projects: A Case Study for Kenyan Software Project Managers and Developers

    Noela Jemutai Kipyegen


    Full Text Available Despite the existence and availability of proper software development risk management processes, Kenyans software projects experience myriad of challenges. This study looks at software risk management practice and the root of problems experienced by Kenyan software project managers and developers. The survey helped to understand these causes and the kind of risk management adoption framework suitable to software projects and that solves existing problems in Kenya. Results from 62 software developers and 15 IT project managers from 30 software development firms showed that majority (87% of IT project managers and developers do not use formal risk management techniques. There are no measures put in place by various development organizations for the implementation of formal risk management methods. This paper develops a framework that guides in the adoption of the existing formal risk management techniques in two areas; Institutions of learning and software development industry.

  9. Bottom Up Project Cost and Risk Modeling

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Microcosm along with its partners HRP Systems, End-to-End Analytics, and ARES Corporation (unfunded in Phase I), propose to develop a new solution for detailed data...

  10. Stabilizing a Bicycle: A Modeling Project

    Pennings, Timothy J.; Williams, Blair R.


    This article is a project that takes students through the process of forming a mathematical model of bicycle dynamics. Beginning with basic ideas from Newtonian mechanics (forces and torques), students use techniques from calculus and differential equations to develop the equations of rotational motion for a bicycle-rider system as it tips from…

  11. Musculoskeletal Modeling Component of the NASA Digital Astronaut Project

    Lewandowski, B. E.; Pennline, J. A.; Stalker, A. R.; Mulugeta, L.; Myers, J. G.


    The NASA Digital Astronaut Project s (DAP) objective is to provide computational tools that support research of the physiological response to low gravity environments and analyses of how changes cause health and safety risks to the astronauts and to the success of the mission. The spaceflight risk associated with muscle atrophy is impaired performance due to reduced muscle mass, strength and endurance. Risks of early onset of osteoporosis and bone fracture are among the spaceflight risks associated with loss of bone mineral density. METHODS: Tools under development include a neuromuscular model, a biomechanical model and a bone remodeling model. The neuromuscular model will include models of neuromuscular drive, muscle atrophy, fiber morphology and metabolic processes as a function of time in space. Human movement will be modeled with the biomechanical model, using muscle and bone model parameters at various states. The bone remodeling model will allow analysis of bone turnover, loss and adaptation. A comprehensive trade study was completed to identify the current state of the art in musculoskeletal modeling. The DAP musculoskeletal models will be developed using a combination of existing commercial software and academic research codes identified in the study, which will be modified for use in human spaceflight research. These individual models are highly dependent upon each other and will be integrated together once they reach sufficient levels of maturity. ANALYSES: The analyses performed with these models will include comparison of different countermeasure exercises for optimizing effectiveness and comparison of task requirements and the state of strength and endurance of a crew member at a particular time in a mission. DISCUSSION: The DAP musculoskeletal model has the potential to complement research conducted on spaceflight induced changes to the musculoskeletal system. It can help with hypothesis formation, identification of causative mechanisms and

  12. Risk management in the project of implantation of the repository for low and intermediate level radioactive waste

    Borssatto, Maria de Fatima B.; Tello, Cledola Cassia O. de; Uemura, George, E-mail:, E-mail: [Centro de Desenvolvimento da Tecnologia Nuclear (CDTN/CNEN-MG) Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil)


    Project RBMN is part of the Brazilian solution for the storage of radioactive waste generated by the activities of nuclear energy in Brazil. The aim of RBMN is to implement the National Repository to dispose the low and intermediate-level radioactive waste. Risk is a characteristic of all projects, and it is originated from uncertainties, assumptions and the environment of execution of the project. Risk management is the way to monitor systematically these uncertainties and a guaranty that the goals of the project will be attained. A specific methodology for the risk management of the Project RBMN is under development, which integrates models and processes for identification and analysis of risks, reactions, monitoring, control and planning of risk management. This methodology is fundamental and will be of primordial importance for future generations who will be responsible for the operation at final stages, closure and institutional control during the post-closure of the repository. It will provide greater safety to executed processes and safeguarding risks and specific solutions for this enterprise, guaranteeing the safety of the repository in its life cycle, which has a foreseen duration of at least three hundred years. The aim of this paper is to present the preliminary analysis of the opportunities, threats, strong points and weak points identified up to now, that will provide support to implement risk management procedures. The methodology will be based on the PMBOK{sup R} - Project Management Board of Knowledge - and will take into consideration the best practices for project management.(author)

  13. Project management system model development and experimental research

    Golubeva, Viktorija


    Project management is the application of knowledge, skills, tools and techniques to project activities to meet project requirements. Project Management Information System is tightly connected with organizational structure and particularity of executed projects. However the main objective of this research was to identify project management model that would be universal, helpful and easily used with small and medium projects In analysis phase we reviewed different methodologies, project ...

  14. Assessment of Transport Projects: Risk Analysis and Decision Support

    Salling, Kim Bang


    . Even though vast amounts of money are spent upon preliminary models, environmental investigations, public hearings, etc., the resulting outcome is given by point estimates, i.e. in terms of net present values or benefit-cost rates. This thesis highlights the perspective of risks when assessing...... and Reference Class Forecasting are implemented. Throughout the entire research from the beginning in 2004 to this day, the modelling framework of CBA-DK has evolved and changed radically. Recently, Palisade Corporation, the developer of @RISK, issued the new version 5.0 allowing for a much greater freedom when...

  15. A Novel Risk Metric for Staff Turnover in a Software Project Based on Information Entropy

    Rong Jiang


    Full Text Available Staff turnover in a software project is a significant risk that can result in project failure. Despite the urgency of this issue, however, relevant studies are limited and are mostly qualitative; quantitative studies are extremely rare. This paper proposes a novel risk metric for staff turnover in a software project based on the information entropy theory. To address the gaps of existing studies, five aspects are considered, namely, staff turnover probability, turnover type, staff level, software project complexity, and staff order degree. This paper develops a method of calculating staff turnover risk probability in a software project based on the field, equity, and goal congruence theories. The proposed method prevents the probability of subjective estimation. It is more objective and comprehensive and superior than existing research. This paper not only presents a detailed operable model, but also theoretically demonstrates the scientificity and rationality of the research. The case study performed in this study indicates that the approach is reasonable, effective, and feasible.

  16. Sensitivity of Coastal Flood Risk Assessments to Digital Elevation Models

    Bas van de Sande; Claartje Hoyng; Joost Lansen


    Most coastal flood risk studies make use of a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) in addition to a projected flood water level in order to estimate the flood inundation and associated damages to property and livelihoods. The resolution and accuracy of a DEM are critical in a flood risk assessment, as land elevation largely determines whether a location will be flooded or will remain dry during a flood event. Especially in low lying deltaic areas, the land elevation variation is usually in the order...

  17. Advanced Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Demonstration Project Plan

    Coleman, Justin [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)


    Idaho National Laboratories (INL) has an ongoing research and development (R&D) project to remove excess conservatism from seismic probabilistic risk assessments (SPRA) calculations. These risk calculations should focus on providing best estimate results, and associated insights, for evaluation and decision-making. This report presents a plan for improving our current traditional SPRA process using a seismic event recorded at a nuclear power plant site, with known outcomes, to improve the decision making process. SPRAs are intended to provide best estimates of the various combinations of structural and equipment failures that can lead to a seismic induced core damage event. However, in general this approach has been conservative, and potentially masks other important events (for instance, it was not the seismic motions that caused the Fukushima core melt events, but the tsunami ingress into the facility).

  18. Credit Risk Modelling and Implementation of Credit Risk Models in China

    Yu, Mengxiao


    Credit risk, or the risk of counterparty default, is an important factor in the valuation and risk management of financial assets. It has become increasingly important to financial institutions. A variety of credit risk models have been developed to measure credit risk. They are J.P. Morgan's CreditMetrics; KMV's PortfolioManager based on Merton (1974) option pricing model; macroeconomic model CreditPortfolio View developed by McKinsey; CSFB's Credit Risk+ Model based on actuarial science fra...

  19. Evaluation of Historical and Projected Agricultural Climate Risk Over the Continental US

    Zhu, X.; Troy, T. J.; Devineni, N.


    Food demands are rising due to an increasing population with changing food preferences, which places pressure on agricultural systems. In addition, in the past decade climate extremes have highlighted the vulnerability of our agricultural production to climate variability. Quantitative analyses in the climate-agriculture research field have been performed in many studies. However, climate risk still remains difficult to evaluate at large scales yet shows great potential of help us better understand historical climate change impacts and evaluate the future risk given climate projections. In this study, we developed a framework to evaluate climate risk quantitatively by applying statistical methods such as Bayesian regression, distribution fitting, and Monte Carlo simulation. We applied the framework over different climate regions in the continental US both historically and for modeled climate projections. The relative importance of any major growing season climate index, such as maximum dry period or heavy precipitation, was evaluated to determine what climate indices play a role in affecting crop yields. The statistical modeling framework was applied using county yields, with irrigated and rainfed yields separated to evaluate the different risk. This framework provides estimates of the climate risk facing agricultural production in the near-term that account for the full uncertainty of climate occurrences, range of crop response, and spatial correlation in climate. In particular, the method provides robust estimates of importance of irrigation in mitigating agricultural climate risk. The results of this study can contribute to decision making about crop choice and water use in an uncertain climate.

  20. Models of Charity Donations and Project Funding in Social Networks

    Wojciechowski, Adam

    One of the key fundaments of building a society is common interest or shared aims of the group members. This research work is a try to analyze web-based services oriented towards money collection for various social and charity projects. The phenomenon of social founding is worth a closer look at because its success strongly depends on the ability to build an ad-hoc or persistent groups of people sharing their believes and willing to support external institutions or individuals. The paper presents a review of money collection sites, various models of donation and money collection process as well as ways how the projects' results are reported to their founders. There is also a proposal of money collection service, where donators are not charged until total declared help overheads required resources to complete the project. The risk of missing real donations for declared payments, after the collection is closed, can be assessed and minimized by building a social network.


    Ming-Chang LEE


    Full Text Available In order to achieve commercial banks liquidity, safety and profitability objective requirements, loan portfolio risk analysis based optimization decisions are rational allocation of assets.  The risk analysis and asset allocation are the key technology of banking and risk management.  The aim of this paper, build a loan portfolio optimization model based on risk analysis.  Loan portfolio rate of return by using Value-at-Risk (VaR and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR constraint optimization decision model reflects the bank's risk tolerance, and the potential loss of direct control of the bank.  In this paper, it analyze a general risk management model applied to portfolio problems with VaR and CVaR risk measures by using Using the Lagrangian Algorithm.  This paper solves the highly difficult problem by matrix operation method.  Therefore, the combination of this paper is easy understanding the portfolio problems with VaR and CVaR risk model is a hyperbola in mean-standard deviation space.  It is easy calculation in proposed method.

  2. Subglacial Hydrology Model Intercomparison Project (SHMIP)

    Werder, Mauro A.; de Fleurian, Basile; Creyts, Timothy T.; Damsgaard, Anders; Delaney, Ian; Dow, Christine F.; Gagliardini, Olivier; Hoffman, Matthew J.; Seguinot, Julien; Sommers, Aleah; Irarrazaval Bustos, Inigo; Downs, Jakob


    The SHMIP project is the first intercomparison project of subglacial drainage models ( Its synthetic test suites and evaluation were designed such that any subglacial hydrology model producing effective pressure can participate. In contrast to ice deformation, the physical processes of subglacial hydrology (which in turn impacts basal sliding of glaciers) are poorly known. A further complication is that different glacial and geological settings can lead to different drainage physics. The aim of the project is therefore to qualitatively compare the outputs of the participating models for a wide range of water forcings and glacier geometries. This will allow to put existing studies, which use different drainage models, into context and will allow new studies to select the most suitable model for the problem at hand. We present the results from the just completed intercomparison exercise. Twelve models participated: eight 2D and four 1D models; nine include both an efficient and inefficient system, the other three one of the systems; all but two models use R-channels as efficient system, and/or a linked-cavity like inefficient system, one exception uses porous layers with different characteristic for each of the systems, the other exception is based on canals. The main variable used for the comparison is effective pressure, as that is a direct proxy for basal sliding of glaciers. The models produce large differences in the effective pressure fields, in particular for higher water input scenarios. This shows that the selection of a subglacial drainage model will likely impact the conclusions of a study significantly.

  3. Task-based dermal exposure models for regulatory risk assessment

    Warren, N.D.; Marquart, H.; Christopher, Y.; Laitinen, J.; Hemmen, J.J. van


    The regulatory risk assessment of chemicals requires the estimation of occupational dermal exposure. Until recently, the models used were either based on limited data or were specific to a particular class of chemical or application. The EU project RISKOFDERM has gathered a considerable number of ne

  4. Task-based dermal exposure models for regulatory risk assessment

    Warren, N.D.; Marquart, H.; Christopher, Y.; Laitinen, J.; Hemmen, J.J. van


    The regulatory risk assessment of chemicals requires the estimation of occupational dermal exposure. Until recently, the models used were either based on limited data or were specific to a particular class of chemical or application. The EU project RISKOFDERM has gathered a considerable number of

  5. NASA Space Radiation Program Integrative Risk Model Toolkit

    Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Hu, Shaowen; Plante, Ianik; Ponomarev, Artem L.; Sandridge, Chris


    NASA Space Radiation Program Element scientists have been actively involved in development of an integrative risk models toolkit that includes models for acute radiation risk and organ dose projection (ARRBOD), NASA space radiation cancer risk projection (NSCR), hemocyte dose estimation (HemoDose), GCR event-based risk model code (GERMcode), and relativistic ion tracks (RITRACKS), NASA radiation track image (NASARTI), and the On-Line Tool for the Assessment of Radiation in Space (OLTARIS). This session will introduce the components of the risk toolkit with opportunity for hands on demonstrations. The brief descriptions of each tools are: ARRBOD for Organ dose projection and acute radiation risk calculation from exposure to solar particle event; NSCR for Projection of cancer risk from exposure to space radiation; HemoDose for retrospective dose estimation by using multi-type blood cell counts; GERMcode for basic physical and biophysical properties for an ion beam, and biophysical and radiobiological properties for a beam transport to the target in the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory beam line; RITRACKS for simulation of heavy ion and delta-ray track structure, radiation chemistry, DNA structure and DNA damage at the molecular scale; NASARTI for modeling of the effects of space radiation on human cells and tissue by incorporating a physical model of tracks, cell nucleus, and DNA damage foci with image segmentation for the automated count; and OLTARIS, an integrated tool set utilizing HZETRN (High Charge and Energy Transport) intended to help scientists and engineers study the effects of space radiation on shielding materials, electronics, and biological systems.

  6. Development of a risk-based environmental management tool for drilling discharges. Summary of a four-year project.

    Singsaas, Ivar; Rye, Henrik; Frost, Tone Karin; Smit, Mathijs G D; Garpestad, Eimund; Skare, Ingvild; Bakke, Knut; Veiga, Leticia Falcao; Buffagni, Melania; Follum, Odd-Arne; Johnsen, Ståle; Moltu, Ulf-Einar; Reed, Mark


    This paper briefly summarizes the ERMS project and presents the developed model by showing results from environmental fates and risk calculations of a discharge from offshore drilling operations. The developed model calculates environmental risks for the water column and sediments resulting from exposure to toxic stressors (e.g., chemicals) and nontoxic stressors (e.g., suspended particles, sediment burial). The approach is based on existing risk assessment techniques described in the European Union technical guidance document on risk assessment and species sensitivity distributions. The model calculates an environmental impact factor, which characterizes the overall potential impact on the marine environment in terms of potentially impacted water volume and sediment area. The ERMS project started in 2003 and was finalized in 2007. In total, 28 scientific reports and 9 scientific papers have been delivered from the ERMS project (

  7. A Corrosion Risk Assessment Model for Underground Piping

    Datta, Koushik; Fraser, Douglas R.


    The Pressure Systems Manager at NASA Ames Research Center (ARC) has embarked on a project to collect data and develop risk assessment models to support risk-informed decision making regarding future inspections of underground pipes at ARC. This paper shows progress in one area of this project - a corrosion risk assessment model for the underground high-pressure air distribution piping system at ARC. It consists of a Corrosion Model of pipe-segments, a Pipe Wrap Protection Model; and a Pipe Stress Model for a pipe segment. A Monte Carlo simulation of the combined models provides a distribution of the failure probabilities. Sensitivity study results show that the model uncertainty, or lack of knowledge, is the dominant contributor to the calculated unreliability of the underground piping system. As a result, the Pressure Systems Manager may consider investing resources specifically focused on reducing these uncertainties. Future work includes completing the data collection effort for the existing ground based pressure systems and applying the risk models to risk-based inspection strategies of the underground pipes at ARC.

  8. Challenges in the Evaluation of Ultra-Long-Lived Projects: Risk Premia for Projects with Eternal Returns or Costs


    The economic evaluation of ultra-long-lived investment projects is not only challenging due to the choice of the planning horizon but also due to the discounting of future uncertain cash flows. Thus, for real world investment decisions a better understanding of the project’s risks and their effect on the project’s value is crucial. If long-term investments are modeled, stochastic processes may be used to reflect the uncertain development of future prices and cash flows. The choice of the stoc...

  9. Literature Survey of previous research work in Models and Methodologies in Project Management

    Ravinder Singh


    Full Text Available This paper provides a survey of the existing literature and research carried out in the area of project management using different models, methodologies, and frameworks. Project Management (PM broadly means programme management, portfolio management, practice management, project management office, etc. A project management system has a set of processes, procedures, framework, methods, tools, methodologies, techniques, resources, etc. which are used to manage the full life cycle of projects. This also means to create risk, quality, performance, and other management plans to monitor and manage the projects efficiently and effectively.

  10. A combined AHP-GP model to allocate internal auditing time to projects

    HA Kruger


    Full Text Available The optimal allocation of internal auditing time among competing projects is a multi-criteria problem that includes both qualitative and quantitative factors. This paper discusses an integrated approach where the analytic hierarchy process (AHP is used to deal with qualitative risk assessments and a goal programming (GP model to distribute available hours in such a way that risk is minimised. Additional considerations, such as maximum and minimum allowable project hours, risk reducing factors and risk levels, are also taken into account. Following a description of the models and framework, a brief case study is presented in which the framework was empirically evaluated.

  11. Validation and Comparison of Carbon Sequestration Project Cost Models with Project Cost Data Obtained from the Southwest Partnership

    Robert Lee; Reid Grigg; Brian McPherson


    Obtaining formal quotes and engineering conceptual designs for carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) sequestration sites and facilities is costly and time-consuming. Frequently, when looking at potential locations, managers, engineers and scientists are confronted with multiple options, but do not have the expertise or the information required to quickly obtain a general estimate of what the costs will be without employing an engineering firm. Several models for carbon compression, transport and/or injection have been published that are designed to aid in determining the cost of sequestration projects. A number of these models are used in this study, including models by J. Ogden, MIT's Carbon Capture and Sequestration Technologies Program Model, the Environmental Protection Agency and others. This report uses the information and data available from several projects either completed, in progress, or conceptualized by the Southwest Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership on Carbon Sequestration (SWP) to determine the best approach to estimate a project's cost. The data presented highlights calculated versus actual costs. This data is compared to the results obtained by applying several models for each of the individual projects with actual cost. It also offers methods to systematically apply the models to future projects of a similar scale. Last, the cost risks associated with a project of this scope are discussed, along with ways that have been and could be used to mitigate these risks.


    Adrian Cantemir CALIN; Oana Cristina POPOVICI


    Credit risk governs all financial transactions and it is defined as the risk of suffering a loss due to certain shifts in the credit quality of a counterpart. Credit risk literature gravitates around two main modeling approaches: the structural approach and the reduced form approach. In addition to these perspectives, credit risk assessment has been conducted through a series of techniques such as credit scoring models, which form the traditional approach. This paper examines the evolution of...

  13. The UNITE-DSS Modelling System: Risk Simulation and Decision Conferencing

    Salling, Kim Bang; Barfod, Michael Bruhn

    This presentation introduces the brand new approach of integrating risk simulation and decision conferencing within transport project appraisal (UNITE-DSS model). The modelling approach is divided into various modules respectively as point estimates (cost-benefit analysis), stochastic interval...

  14. Minimizing Investment Risk of Integrated Rail and Transit-Oriented-Development Projects over Years in a Linear Monocentric City

    Ding Liu


    Full Text Available Rail and transit-oriented-development (TOD projects are simultaneously optimized in this paper, with special consideration given to yearly variation and spatial and temporal correlation of population densities. In the proposed model, the objective is to minimize the investment risk of integrated rail and TOD projects with a given required expected return on investment. The investment risk is optimized based on closed-form solutions of the design variables, including rail line length, the number of TOD projects, and the number of housing units in each TOD project. The closed-form solutions are given explicitly under the assumption of social welfare maximization. It is found that underestimation exists for rail and TOD projects without consideration of the correlation of spatial and temporal population densities. TOD projects can greatly improve the return on investment of the rail operator. A numerical example is also presented.

  15. Handbook for Volcanic Risk Management: an outcome from MIAVITA project

    Bignami, Christian; Bosi, Vittorio; Costantini, Licia; Cristiani, Chiara; Lavigne, Franck; Thierry, Pierre


    Volcanic eruptions are one of the most impressive, violent and dramatic agents of change on Earth, threatening hundreds of millions of people. The crises management implies a strong cooperation among the main stakeholders (e.g., civil protection authorities, scientific institutions, operational forces). Considering the great amount of different actions required during the whole volcanic cycle (e.g., preparedness, unrest phase, crisis management, resilience), the role and responsibilities of stakeholders should be clarified in advance. In particular, the role of scientists, fundamental in all the phases, should be well discussed with the other stakeholders and well defined, for every country. This will allow a better management and response, and contribute to avoid misunderstanding. The new "Handbook for Volcanic Risk Management" issued by the MIAVITA European project, funded by the European Commission (Mitigate and Assess risk from Volcanic Impact on Terrain and human Activities) gives a contribution to that. Indeed, this handbook aims at synthesizing the acquired knowledge on volcanic risk management, such as prevention, preparedness, mitigation, intervention, crisis management and resilience, in a practical and useful way. It promotes the creation of an ideal bridge between different actors involved in risk management, improving and facilitating interactions among authorities and scientists. This work is based on current scientific research and the shared experience of the different MIAVITA project partners as well as on international good practices previously recommended. The handbook is composed of six sections. The first one briefly explains the global volcanic context and the principles of corresponding risk management. Section 2 contains a description of volcanic phenomena, damage and understanding size and effects that can be expected. Sections 3, 4 and 5 meet preparation and prevention issues and describe actions to be undertaken during the response phase


    Anass BAYAGA


    Full Text Available The objective of this second part of a two-phased study was to explorethe predictive power of quantitative risk analysis (QRA method andprocess within Higher Education Institution (HEI. The method and process investigated the use impact analysis via Nicholas risk model and Bayesian analysis, with a sample of hundred (100 risk analysts in a historically black South African University in the greater Eastern Cape Province.The first findings supported and confirmed previous literature (KingIII report, 2009: Nicholas and Steyn, 2008: Stoney, 2007: COSA, 2004 that there was a direct relationship between risk factor, its likelihood and impact, certiris paribus. The second finding in relation to either controlling the likelihood or the impact of occurrence of risk (Nicholas risk model was that to have a brighter risk reward, it was important to control the likelihood ofoccurrence of risks as compared with its impact so to have a direct effect on entire University. On the Bayesian analysis, thus third finding, the impact of risk should be predicted along three aspects. These aspects included the human impact (decisions made, the property impact (students and infrastructural based and the business impact. Lastly, the study revealed that although in most business cases, where as business cycles considerably vary dependingon the industry and or the institution, this study revealed that, most impacts in HEI (University was within the period of one academic.The recommendation was that application of quantitative risk analysisshould be related to current legislative framework that affects HEI.

  17. Regional Climate Model Intercomparison Project for Asia.

    Fu, Congbin; Wang, Shuyu; Xiong, Zhe; Gutowski, William J.; Lee, Dong-Kyou; McGregor, John L.; Sato, Yasuo; Kato, Hisashi; Kim, Jeong-Woo; Suh, Myoung-Seok


    Improving the simulation of regional climate change is one of the high-priority areas of climate study because regional information is needed for climate change impact assessments. Such information is especially important for the region covered by the East Asian monsoon where there is high variability in both space and time. To this end, the Regional Climate Model Intercomparison Project (RMIP) for Asia has been established to evaluate and improve regional climate model (RCM) simulations of the monsoon climate. RMIP operates under joint support of the Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research (APN), the Global Change System for Analysis, Research and Training (START), the Chinese Academy of Sciences, and several projects of participating nations. The project currently involves 10 research groups from Australia, China, Japan, South Korea, and the United States, as well as scientists from India, Italy, Mongolia, North Korea, and Russia.RMIP has three simulation phases: March 1997-August 1998, which covers a full annual cycle and extremes in monsoon behavior; January 1989-December 1998, which examines simulated climatology; and a regional climate change scenario, involving nesting with a global model. This paper is a brief report of RMIP goals, implementation design, and some initial results from the first phase studies.

  18. An application of stochastic processes for analyzing risks in highway projects

    S. Meysam Mousavi


    Full Text Available The successes on highway projects are uncertain because of organizational features, improper scope definitions and long lasting complicated processes. Highway projects under uncertain environment can effectively be managed with the application of risk management throughout their life cycles. Risk management within highway projects, therefore, has been recognized vital to improve their performances and increase the success of these projects. Processes of the projects are dynamic by nature. Therefore, commonly used static techniques do not analyze the potential risks properly. The stochastic process is a highly effective tool to quantitatively deal with the risk analysis. In this paper, a new approach based on Markov chain is proposed to assess the potential risks of highway projects in a dynamic framework. The approach takes advantage of the capability of probabilistic tools. Furthermore, using an application example in highway projects, the proposed approach is demonstrated in detail. Finally, the risk management effectiveness of using the stochastic processes is illustrated.

  19. Competing Risks and Multistate Models with R

    Beyersmann, Jan; Schumacher, Martin


    This book covers competing risks and multistate models, sometimes summarized as event history analysis. These models generalize the analysis of time to a single event (survival analysis) to analysing the timing of distinct terminal events (competing risks) and possible intermediate events (multistate models). Both R and multistate methods are promoted with a focus on nonparametric methods.

  20. The Risk Evaluation of Agricultural High-tech Investment Project%农业高新技术投资项目风险评价

    陆迁; 苗姗姗


    The agricultural high-tech investment project (AHIP) is characterized by technology-intensive, high risk and great profit. This article analyzes essential factors of the risks of the agricultural high-tech investment projects and the traditional risk evaluation method of agricultural projects. We think that the applications of the sensitivity analysis and probability are defective. Therefore, this article introduces a structural model to evaluate the risks of the agricultural high-tech investment projects and the system of the concrete evaluation indexes.


    Sunduck D. SUH, Ph.D., P.E.


    Full Text Available Risk management experiences of the Korean Seoul-Pusan high-speed railway (KTX project since the planning stage are evaluated. One can clearly see the interplay of engineering and construction risks, financial risks and political risks in the development of the KTX project, which is the peculiarity of large-scale new railway system projects. A brief description on evaluation methodology and overview of the project is followed by detailed evaluations on key differences in risks between conventional railway system and high-speed railway system, social and political risks, engineering and construction risks, and financial risks. Risks involved in system procurement process, such as proposal solicitation, evaluation, selection, and scope of solicitation are separated out and evaluated in depth. Detailed events resulting from these issues are discussed along with their possible impact on system risk. Lessons learned and further possible refinements are also discussed.

  2. A Framework for Integrating Knowledge Management with Risk Management for Information Technology Projects (RiskManiT)

    Karadsheh, Louay A.


    This research focused on the challenges experienced when executing risk management activities for information technology projects. The lack of adequate knowledge management support of risk management activities has caused many project failures in the past. The research objective was to propose a conceptual framework of the Knowledge-Based Risk…

  3. A Framework for Integrating Knowledge Management with Risk Management for Information Technology Projects (RiskManiT)

    Karadsheh, Louay A.


    This research focused on the challenges experienced when executing risk management activities for information technology projects. The lack of adequate knowledge management support of risk management activities has caused many project failures in the past. The research objective was to propose a conceptual framework of the Knowledge-Based Risk…

  4. Transport project evaluation: feasibility risk assessment and scenario forecasting

    Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen


    on the preliminary construction cost estimates. Hereafter, a quantitative risk analysis is provided making use of Monte Carlo simulation. This approach facilitates random input parameters based upon reference class forecasting, hence, a parameter data fit has been performed in order to obtain validated probability......) are obtained. Recent research has however proved that substantial inaccuracies are present when obtaining the monetary input to the CBA, particularly as concerns the construction costs and demand forecasts. This paper proposes a new approach in order to address these inaccuracies in a so-called Reference...... Scenario Forecasting (RSF) frame. The RSF is anchored in the cost-benefit analysis; thus, it provides decision-makers with a quantitative mean of assessing the transport infrastructure project. First, the RSF method introduces uncertainties within the CBA by applying Optimism Bias uplifts...

  5. Relative risk regression models with inverse polynomials.

    Ning, Yang; Woodward, Mark


    The proportional hazards model assumes that the log hazard ratio is a linear function of parameters. In the current paper, we model the log relative risk as an inverse polynomial, which is particularly suitable for modeling bounded and asymmetric functions. The parameters estimated by maximizing the partial likelihood are consistent and asymptotically normal. The advantages of the inverse polynomial model over the ordinary polynomial model and the fractional polynomial model for fitting various asymmetric log relative risk functions are shown by simulation. The utility of the method is further supported by analyzing two real data sets, addressing the specific question of the location of the minimum risk threshold.

  6. Avoiding unintentional eviction from integral projection models.

    Williams, Jennifer L; Miller, Tom E X; Ellner, Stephen P


    Integral projection models (IPMs) are increasingly being applied to study size-structured populations. Here we call attention to a potential problem in their construction that can have important consequences for model results. IPMs are implemented using an approximating matrix and bounded size range. Individuals near the size limits can be unknowingly "evicted" from the model because their predicted future size is outside the range. We provide simple measures for the magnitude of eviction and the sensitivity of the population growth rate (lambda) to eviction, allowing modelers to assess the severity of the problem in their IPM. For IPMs of three plant species, we found that eviction occurred in all cases and caused underestimation of the population growth rate (lambda) relative to eviction-free models; it is likely that other models are similarly affected. Models with frequent eviction should be modified because eviction is only possible when size transitions are badly mis-specified. We offer several solutions to eviction problems, but we emphasize that the modeler must choose the most appropriate solution based on an understanding of why eviction occurs in the first place. We recommend testing IPMs for eviction problems and resolving them, so that population dynamics are modeled more accurately.

  7. Risks in Project Finance Initiatives: Current Trends and Future Directions

    Mangano, Giulio


    This thesis is an analysis of Public Private Partnership (PPP). PPP refers to the provision of public assets and service through the participation of the government, the private sector and the consumers. The purpose is to analyze the main risks involved in a PPP initiative and to understand how they affect its capital structure. To this aim, different datasets have been analyzed in order to trace consistent and coherent lessons. After that, this thesis aims at proposing PPP models for innovat...

  8. Projecting Policy Effects with Statistical Models Projecting Policy Effects with Statistical Models

    Christopher Sims


    Full Text Available This paper attempts to briefly discus the current frontiers in quantitative modeling for forecastina and policy analvsis. It does so by summarizing some recent developmenrs in three areas: reduced form forecasting models; theoretical models including elements of stochastic optimization; and identification. In the process, the paper tries to provide some remarks on the direction we seem to be headed. Projecting Policy Effects with Statistical Models

  9. The Chancellor's Model School Project (CMSP)

    Lopez, Gil


    What does it take to create and implement a 7th to 8th grade middle school program where the great majority of students achieve at high academic levels regardless of their previous elementary school backgrounds? This was the major question that guided the research and development of a 7-year long project effort entitled the Chancellor's Model School Project (CMSP) from September 1991 to August 1998. The CMSP effort conducted largely in two New York City public schools was aimed at creating and testing a prototype 7th and 8th grade model program that was organized and test-implemented in two distinct project phases: Phase I of the CMSP effort was conducted from 1991 to 1995 as a 7th to 8th grade extension of an existing K-6 elementary school, and Phase II was conducted from 1995 to 1998 as a 7th to 8th grade middle school program that became an integral part of a newly established 7-12th grade high school. In Phase I, the CMSP demonstrated that with a highly structured curriculum coupled with strong academic support and increased learning time, students participating in the CMSP were able to develop a strong foundation for rigorous high school coursework within the space of 2 years (at the 7th and 8th grades). Mathematics and Reading test score data during Phase I of the project, clearly indicated that significant academic gains were obtained by almost all students -- at both the high and low ends of the spectrum -- regardless of their previous academic performance in the K-6 elementary school experience. The CMSP effort expanded in Phase II to include a fully operating 7-12 high school model. Achievement gains at the 7th and 8th grade levels in Phase II were tempered by the fact that incoming 7th grade students' academic background at the CMSP High School was significantly lower than students participating in Phase 1. Student performance in Phase II was also affected by the broadening of the CMSP effort from a 7-8th grade program to a fully functioning 7-12 high

  10. Risk Management Plan for Tank Farm Restoration and Safe Operations Project W-314

    MCGREW, D.L.


    The Risk Management Plan for Project W-314 describes the systems, processes and procedures for implementation of applicable risk management practices described in HNF-0842, Volume IV, Section 2.6, ''Risk Management''. This plan is tailored specifically for use by Project W-314.

  11. Managing the risks of a large-scale infrastructure project: The case of Spoorzone Delft

    Priemus, H.


    Risk management in large-scale infrastructure projects is attracting the attention of academics and practitioners alike. After a brief summary of the theoretical background, this paper describes how the risk analysis and risk management shaped up in a current large-scale infrastructure project in

  12. Managing the risks of a large-scale infrastructure project: The case of Spoorzone Delft

    Priemus, H.


    Risk management in large-scale infrastructure projects is attracting the attention of academics and practitioners alike. After a brief summary of the theoretical background, this paper describes how the risk analysis and risk management shaped up in a current large-scale infrastructure project in th

  13. Managing dependencies in forest offset projects: toward a more complete evaluation of reversal risk

    David M Cooley; Chrsitopher S Galik; Thomas P Holmes; Carolyn Kousky; Roger M Cooke


    Although forest carbon offsets can play an important role in the implementation of comprehensive climate policy, they also face an inherent risk of reversal. If such risks are positively correlated across projects, it can affect the integrity of larger project portfolios and potentially the entire offsets program. Here, we discuss three types of risks that could affect...

  14. ISM Approach to Model Offshore Outsourcing Risks

    Sunand Kumar


    Full Text Available In an effort to achieve a competitive advantage via cost reductions and improved market responsiveness, organizations are increasingly employing offshore outsourcing as a major component of their supply chain strategies. But as evident from literature number of risks such as Political risk, Risk due to cultural differences, Compliance and regulatory risk, Opportunistic risk and Organization structural risk, which adversely affect the performance of offshore outsourcing in a supply chain network. This also leads to dissatisfaction among different stake holders. The main objective of this paper is to identify and understand the mutual interaction among various risks which affect the performance of offshore outsourcing.  To this effect, authors have identified various risks through extant review of literature.  From this information, an integrated model using interpretive structural modelling (ISM for risks affecting offshore outsourcing is developed and the structural relationships between these risks are modeled.  Further, MICMAC analysis is done to analyze the driving power and dependency of risks which shall be helpful to managers to identify and classify important criterions and to reveal the direct and indirect effects of each criterion on offshore outsourcing. Results show that political risk and risk due to cultural differences are act as strong drivers.


    Sathaye, Jayant; Dale, Larry; Larsen, Peter; Fitts, Gary; Koy, Kevin; Lewis, Sarah; Lucena, Andre


    This report outlines the results of a study of the impact of climate change on the energy infrastructure of California and the San Francisco Bay region, including impacts on power plant generation; transmission line and substation capacity during heat spells; wildfires near transmission lines; sea level encroachment upon power plants, substations, and natural gas facilities; and peak electrical demand. Some end-of-century impacts were projected:Expected warming will decrease gas-fired generator efficiency. The maximum statewide coincident loss is projected at 10.3 gigawatts (with current power plant infrastructure and population), an increase of 6.2 percent over current temperature-induced losses. By the end of the century, electricity demand for almost all summer days is expected to exceed the current ninetieth percentile per-capita peak load. As much as 21 percent growth is expected in ninetieth percentile peak demand (per-capita, exclusive of population growth). When generator losses are included in the demand, the ninetieth percentile peaks may increase up to 25 percent. As the climate warms, California's peak supply capacity will need to grow faster than the population.Substation capacity is projected to decrease an average of 2.7 percent. A 5C (9F) air temperature increase (the average increase predicted for hot days in August) will diminish the capacity of a fully-loaded transmission line by an average of 7.5 percent.The potential exposure of transmission lines to wildfire is expected to increase with time. We have identified some lines whose probability of exposure to fire are expected to increase by as much as 40 percent. Up to 25 coastal power plants and 86 substations are at risk of flooding (or partial flooding) due to sea level rise.


    Bente Corneliu Cristian


    Full Text Available Banking risks management as a fundamental element of banking management aims at diminishing as much as possible the negative impact of risk factors, at minimizing losses by expenditures cut-off and maximizing direct and transferred influxes, changing the


    O.-K. D. LEE; D. V. BABY


    Risk management in global information technology (IT) projects is becoming a critical area of concern for practitioners. Global IT projects usually span multiple locations involving various culturally diverse groups that use multiple standards and technologies. These multiplicities cause dynamic risks through interactions among internal (i.e., people, process, and technology) and external elements (i.e., business and natural environments) of global IT projects. This study proposes an agile ri...

  18. Evaluating Sources of Risks in Large Engineering Projects: The Roles of Equivocality and Uncertainty

    Leena Pekkinen


    Full Text Available Contemporary project risk management literature introduces uncertainty, i.e., the lack of information, as a fundamental basis of project risks. In this study the authors assert that equivocality, i.e., the existence of multiple and conflicting interpretations, can also serve as a basis of risks. With an in-depth empirical investigation of a large complex engineering project the authors identified risk sources having their bases in the situations where uncertainty or equivocality was the predominant attribute. The information processing theory proposes different managerial practices for risk management based on the sources of risks in uncertainty or equivocality.

  19. Managing Risk and Uncertainty in Large-Scale University Research Projects

    Moore, Sharlissa; Shangraw, R. F., Jr.


    Both publicly and privately funded research projects managed by universities are growing in size and scope. Complex, large-scale projects (over $50 million) pose new management challenges and risks for universities. This paper explores the relationship between project success and a variety of factors in large-scale university projects. First, we…

  20. Risk maps for Antarctic krill under projected Southern Ocean acidification

    Kawaguchi, S.; Ishida, A.; King, R.; Raymond, B.; Waller, N.; Constable, A.; Nicol, S.; Wakita, M.; Ishimatsu, A.


    Marine ecosystems of the Southern Ocean are particularly vulnerable to ocean acidification. Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba; hereafter krill) is the key pelagic species of the region and its largest fishery resource. There is therefore concern about the combined effects of climate change, ocean acidification and an expanding fishery on krill and ultimately, their dependent predators--whales, seals and penguins. However, little is known about the sensitivity of krill to ocean acidification. Juvenile and adult krill are already exposed to variable seawater carbonate chemistry because they occupy a range of habitats and migrate both vertically and horizontally on a daily and seasonal basis. Moreover, krill eggs sink from the surface to hatch at 700-1,000m (ref. ), where the carbon dioxide partial pressure (pCO2) in sea water is already greater than it is in the atmosphere. Krill eggs sink passively and so cannot avoid these conditions. Here we describe the sensitivity of krill egg hatch rates to increased CO2, and present a circumpolar risk map of krill hatching success under projected pCO2 levels. We find that important krill habitats of the Weddell Sea and the Haakon VII Sea to the east are likely to become high-risk areas for krill recruitment within a century. Furthermore, unless CO2 emissions are mitigated, the Southern Ocean krill population could collapse by 2300 with dire consequences for the entire ecosystem.

  1. The Role and the Effects of Risk Management in IT Projects Success

    Otniel DIDRAGA


    Full Text Available The success of IT projects is influenced by risk and risk management according to the existing project management literature. The paper emphasizes the role of risk management and its contribution to projects success in the existing literature. The methodology applied is based on documentary study review and analysis of the concepts used by the literature. We analyzed the literature published between 1978 and 2012 from the main IT project management journals and publications. The results are that risk management is a very important component of the project management process and it is assumed implicitly to work in favour of project success. We also performed a quantitative analysis of how risk management processes affect the subjective and objective performance of IT projects in Romanian IT companies.

  2. GCSS Idealized Cirrus Model Comparison Project

    Starr, David OC.; Benedetti, Angela; Boehm, Matt; Brown, Philip R. A.; Gierens, Klaus; Girard, Eric; Giraud, Vincent; Jakob, Christian; Jensen, Eric; Khvorostyanov, Vitaly; hide


    The GCSS Working Group on Cirrus Cloud Systems (WG2) is conducting a systematic comparison and evaluation of cirrus cloud models. This fundamental activity seeks to support the improvement of models used for climate simulation and numerical weather prediction through assessment and improvement of the "process" models underlying parametric treatments of cirrus cloud processes in large-scale models. The WG2 Idealized Cirrus Model Comparison Project is an initial comparison of cirrus cloud simulations by a variety of cloud models for a series of idealized situations with relatively simple initial conditions and forcing. The models (16) represent the state-of-the-art and include 3-dimensional large eddy simulation (LES) models, two-dimensional cloud resolving models (CRMs), and single column model (SCM) versions of GCMs. The model microphysical components are similarly varied, ranging from single-moment bulk (relative humidity) schemes to fully size-resolved (bin) treatments where ice crystal growth is explicitly calculated. Radiative processes are included in the physics package of each model. The baseline simulations include "warm" and "cold" cirrus cases where cloud top initially occurs at about -47C and -66C, respectively. All simulations are for nighttime conditions (no solar radiation) where the cloud is generated in an ice supersaturated layer, about 1 km in depth, with an ice pseudoadiabatic thermal stratification (neutral). Continuing cloud formation is forced via an imposed diabatic cooling representing a 3 cm/s uplift over a 4-hour time span followed by a 2-hour dissipation stage with no cooling. Variations of these baseline cases include no-radiation and stable-thermal-stratification cases. Preliminary results indicated the great importance of ice crystal fallout in determining even the gross cloud characteristics, such as average vertically-integrated ice water path (IWP). Significant inter-model differences were found. Ice water fall speed is directly


    Morozenko Andrey Aleksandrovich


    minimization of risky situations requires reduction of the project implementation period; development of domestic methodologies and standards of project risk management tailored to the conditions of our construction industry is a relevant assignment.

  4. Solving the Resource Constrained Project Scheduling Problem to Minimize the Financial Failure Risk

    Zhi Jie Chen


    Full Text Available In practice, a project usually involves cash in- and out-flows associated with each activity. This paper aims to minimize the payment failure risk during the project execution for the resource-constrained project scheduling problem (RCPSP. In such models, the money-time value, which is the product of the net cash in-flow and the time length from the completion time of each activity to the project deadline, provides a financial evaluation of project cash availability. The cash availability of a project schedule is defined as the sum of these money-time values associated with all activities, which is mathematically equivalent to the minimization objective of total weighted completion time. This paper presents four memetic algorithms (MAs which differ in the construction of initial population and restart strategy, and a double variable neighborhood search algorithm for solving the RCPSP problem. An experiment is conducted to evaluate the performance of these algorithms based on the same number of solutions calculated using ProGen generated benchmark instances. The results indicate that the MAs with regret biased sampling rule to generate initial and restart populations outperforms the other algorithms in terms of solution quality.

  5. Caries risk assessment models in caries prediction

    Amila Zukanović


    Full Text Available Objective. The aim of this research was to assess the efficiency of different multifactor models in caries prediction. Material and methods. Data from the questionnaire and objective examination of 109 examinees was entered into the Cariogram, Previser and Caries-Risk Assessment Tool (CAT multifactor risk assessment models. Caries risk was assessed with the help of all three models for each patient, classifying them as low, medium or high-risk patients. The development of new caries lesions over a period of three years [Decay Missing Filled Tooth (DMFT increment = difference between Decay Missing Filled Tooth Surface (DMFTS index at baseline and follow up], provided for examination of the predictive capacity concerning different multifactor models. Results. The data gathered showed that different multifactor risk assessment models give significantly different results (Friedman test: Chi square = 100.073, p=0.000. Cariogram is the model which identified the majority of examinees as medium risk patients (70%. The other two models were more radical in risk assessment, giving more unfavorable risk –profiles for patients. In only 12% of the patients did the three multifactor models assess the risk in the same way. Previser and CAT gave the same results in 63% of cases – the Wilcoxon test showed that there is no statistically significant difference in caries risk assessment between these two models (Z = -1.805, p=0.071. Conclusions. Evaluation of three different multifactor caries risk assessment models (Cariogram, PreViser and CAT showed that only the Cariogram can successfully predict new caries development in 12-year-old Bosnian children.

  6. Project-matrix models of marketing organization

    Gutić Dragutin


    Full Text Available Unlike theory and practice of corporation organization, in marketing organization numerous forms and contents at its disposal are not reached until this day. It can be well estimated that marketing organization today in most of our companies and in almost all its parts, noticeably gets behind corporation organization. Marketing managers have always been occupied by basic, narrow marketing activities as: sales growth, market analysis, market growth and market share, marketing research, introduction of new products, modification of products, promotion, distribution etc. They rarely found it necessary to focus a bit more to different aspects of marketing management, for example: marketing planning and marketing control, marketing organization and leading. This paper deals with aspects of project - matrix marketing organization management. Two-dimensional and more-dimensional models are presented. Among two-dimensional, these models are analyzed: Market management/products management model; Products management/management of product lifecycle phases on market model; Customers management/marketing functions management model; Demand management/marketing functions management model; Market positions management/marketing functions management model. .

  7. Building information models for astronomy projects

    Ariño, Javier; Murga, Gaizka; Campo, Ramón; Eletxigerra, Iñigo; Ampuero, Pedro


    A Building Information Model is a digital representation of physical and functional characteristics of a building. BIMs represent the geometrical characteristics of the Building, but also properties like bills of quantities, definition of COTS components, status of material in the different stages of the project, project economic data, etc. The BIM methodology, which is well established in the Architecture Engineering and Construction (AEC) domain for conventional buildings, has been brought one step forward in its application for Astronomical/Scientific facilities. In these facilities steel/concrete structures have high dynamic and seismic requirements, M&E installations are complex and there is a large amount of special equipment and mechanisms involved as a fundamental part of the facility. The detail design definition is typically implemented by different design teams in specialized design software packages. In order to allow the coordinated work of different engineering teams, the overall model, and its associated engineering database, is progressively integrated using a coordination and roaming software which can be used before starting construction phase for checking interferences, planning the construction sequence, studying maintenance operation, reporting to the project office, etc. This integrated design & construction approach will allow to efficiently plan construction sequence (4D). This is a powerful tool to study and analyze in detail alternative construction sequences and ideally coordinate the work of different construction teams. In addition engineering, construction and operational database can be linked to the virtual model (6D), what gives to the end users a invaluable tool for the lifecycle management, as all the facility information can be easily accessed, added or replaced. This paper presents the BIM methodology as implemented by IDOM with the E-ELT and ATST Enclosures as application examples.

  8. A suite of models to support the quantitative assessment of spread in pest risk analysis

    Robinet, C.; Kehlenbeck, H.; Werf, van der W.


    In the frame of the EU project PRATIQUE (KBBE-2007-212459 Enhancements of pest risk analysis techniques) a suite of models was developed to support the quantitative assessment of spread in pest risk analysis. This dataset contains the model codes (R language) for the four models in the suite. Three

  9. Study of Multistage Project Risk Identification-Assessment Process Based on Objective Orientation


    Risk management of projects is about the real time ev aluation and making of decisions proactively in order to maximize the probabilit y of achieving or surpassing the targets set for project objectives. Project objective generally includes three elements: time, cost, quality. Risk occurrin g in the projects will affect these three factors to some various degrees in the end. There are different emphases in each stage and integrated balanced goals b etween the three factors. A large complex engineering ...

  10. Sources of iteration and a risk mitigation methodology in semiconductor new product development projects

    Murphy, Evan


    peer-reviewed Iteration is the major source of risk in semiconductor New Product Development (NPD) projects, occurring in approximately 90% of projects and causing on average approximately 30% schedule slippage. As such, iteration risk in semiconductor NPD projects is a very important issue that needs to be addressed. NPD projects bring specific challenges for a company due to the innate uncertainty involved in producing a new product. One major consequence of the inherent uncertainty invo...

  11. Modeling extreme risks in ecology.

    Burgman, Mark; Franklin, James; Hayes, Keith R; Hosack, Geoffrey R; Peters, Gareth W; Sisson, Scott A


    Extreme risks in ecology are typified by circumstances in which data are sporadic or unavailable, understanding is poor, and decisions are urgently needed. Expert judgments are pervasive and disagreements among experts are commonplace. We outline approaches to evaluating extreme risks in ecology that rely on stochastic simulation, with a particular focus on methods to evaluate the likelihood of extinction and quasi-extinction of threatened species, and the likelihood of establishment and spread of invasive pests. We evaluate the importance of assumptions in these assessments and the potential of some new approaches to account for these uncertainties, including hierarchical estimation procedures and generalized extreme value distributions. We conclude by examining the treatment of consequences in extreme risk analysis in ecology and how expert judgment may better be harnessed to evaluate extreme risks.

  12. Why operational risk modelling creates inverse incentives

    Doff, R.


    Operational risk modelling has become commonplace in large international banks and is gaining popularity in the insurance industry as well. This is partly due to financial regulation (Basel II, Solvency II). This article argues that operational risk modelling is fundamentally flawed, despite efforts

  13. Concordance for prognostic models with competing risks

    M. Wolbers (Marcel); S. Blanche (Stephane); M. Koller (Michael); J.C.M. Witteman (Jacqueline); T.A. Gerds (Thomas)


    textabstractThe concordance probability is a widely used measure to assess discrimination of prognostic models with binary and survival endpoints. We formally define the concordance probability for a prognostic model of the absolute risk of an event of interest in the presence of competing risks and

  14. Systemic change increases model projection uncertainty

    Verstegen, Judith; Karssenberg, Derek; van der Hilst, Floor; Faaij, André


    Most spatio-temporal models are based on the assumption that the relationship between system state change and its explanatory processes is stationary. This means that model structure and parameterization are usually kept constant over time, ignoring potential systemic changes in this relationship resulting from e.g., climatic or societal changes, thereby overlooking a source of uncertainty. We define systemic change as a change in the system indicated by a system state change that cannot be simulated using a constant model structure. We have developed a method to detect systemic change, using a Bayesian data assimilation technique, the particle filter. The particle filter was used to update the prior knowledge about the model structure. In contrast to the traditional particle filter approach (e.g., Verstegen et al., 2014), we apply the filter separately for each point in time for which observations are available, obtaining the optimal model structure for each of the time periods in between. This allows us to create a time series of the evolution of the model structure. The Runs test (Wald and Wolfowitz, 1940), a stationarity test, is used to check whether variation in this time series can be attributed to randomness or not. If not, this indicates systemic change. The uncertainty that the systemic change adds to the existing model projection uncertainty can be determined by comparing model outcomes of a model with a stationary model structure and a model with a model structure changing according to the variation found in the time series. To test the systemic change detection methodology, we apply it to a land use change cellular automaton (CA) (Verstegen et al., 2012) and use observations of real land use from all years from 2004 to 2012 and associated uncertainty as observational data in the particle filter. A systemic change was detected for the period 2006 to 2008. In this period the influence on the location of sugar cane expansion of the driver sugar cane in

  15. Natural gas projects in the developing world: An empirical evaluation of merits, obstacles, and risks

    Mor, Amit

    Significant amounts of natural gas have been discovered in developing countries throughout the years during the course of oil exploration. The vast majority of these resources have not been utilized. Some developing countries may benefit from a carefully planned utilization of their indigenous resources, which can either be exported or used domestically to substitute imported or exportable fuels or feedstock. Governments, potential private sector investors, and financiers have been searching for strategies to promote natural gas schemes, some of which have been in the pipeline for more than two decades. The purpose of this thesis is to identify the crucial factors determining the success or failure of launching natural gas projects in the developing world. The methodology used to evaluate these questions included: (1) establishing a representative sample of natural gas projects in developing countries that were either implemented or failed to materialize during the 1980-1995 period, (2) utilizing a Probit limited dependent variable econometric model in which the explained variable is project success or failure, and (3) choosing representing indicators to reflect the assumed factors affecting project success. The study identified two conditions for project success: (1) the economic viability of the project and (2) securing financing for the investment. The factors that explain the ability or inability of the sponsors to secure financing were: (1) the volume of investment that represented the large capital costs of gas transportation, distribution, and storage, (2) the level of foreign exchange constraint in the host country, and (3) the level of development of the country. The conditions for private sector participation in natural gas projects in developing countries were identified in the study by a Probit model in which the explained variable was private sector participation. The results showed that a critical condition for private sector participation is the

  16. Global projections of drought hazard in a warming climate: a prime for disaster risk management

    Carrão, Hugo; Naumann, Gustavo; Barbosa, Paulo


    Projections of drought hazard (dH) changes have been mapped from five bias-corrected climate models and analyzed at the global level under three representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The motivation for this study is the observation that drought risk is increasing globally and the effective regulation of prevention and adaptation measures depends on dH magnitude and its distribution for the future. Based on the Weighted Anomaly of Standardized Precipitation index, dH changes have been assessed for mid-(2021-2050) and late-century (2071-2099). With a few exceptions, results show a likely increase in global dH between the historical years (1971-2000) and both future time periods under all RCPs. Notwithstanding this worsening trend, it was found that projections of dH changes for most regions are neither robust nor significant in the near-future. By the end of the century, greater increases are projected for RCPs describing stronger radiative forcing. Under RCP8.5, statistically significant dH changes emerge for global Mediterranean ecosystems and the Amazon region, which are identified as possible hotspots for future water security issues. Taken together, projections of dH changes point towards two dilemmas: (1) in the near-term, stake-holders are left worrying about projected increasing dH over large regions, but lack of actionable model agreement to take effective decisions related to local prevention and adaptation initiatives; (2) in the long-term, models demonstrate remarkable agreement, but stake-holders lack actionable knowledge to manage potential impacts far distant from actual human-dominated environments. We conclude that the major challenge for risk management is not to adapt human populations or their activities to dH changes, but to progress on global initiatives that mitigate their impacts in the whole carbon cycle by late-century.

  17. Energy risk management and value at risk modeling

    Mehdi Sadeghi; Saeed Shavvalpour [Imam Sadiq University, Tehran (Iran). Economics Dept.


    The value of energy trades can change over time with market conditions and underlying price variables. The rise of competition and deregulation in energy markets has led to relatively free energy markets that are characterized by high price shifts. Within oil markets the volatile oil price environment after OPEC agreements in the 1970s requires a risk quantification. ''Value-at-risk'' has become an essential tool for this end when quantifying market risk. There are various methods for calculating value-at-risk. The methods we introduced in this paper are Historical Simulation ARMA Forecasting and Variance-Covariance based on GARCH modeling approaches. The results show that among various approaches the HSAF methodology presents more efficient results, so that if the level of confidence is 99%, the value-at-risk calculated through HSAF methodology is greater than actual price changes in almost 97.6 percent of the forecasting period. (author)

  18. Energy risk management and value at risk modeling

    Sadeghi, Mehdi [Economics department, Imam Sadiq University, P.B. 14655-159, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of)]. E-mail:; Shavvalpour, Saeed [Economics department, Imam Sadiq University, P.B. 14655-159, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of)]. E-mail:


    The value of energy trades can change over time with market conditions and underlying price variables. The rise of competition and deregulation in energy markets has led to relatively free energy markets that are characterized by high price shifts. Within oil markets the volatile oil price environment after OPEC agreements in the 1970s requires a risk quantification.' Value-at-risk' has become an essential tool for this end when quantifying market risk. There are various methods for calculating value-at-risk. The methods we introduced in this paper are Historical Simulation ARMA Forecasting and Variance-Covariance based on GARCH modeling approaches. The results show that among various approaches the HSAF methodology presents more efficient results, so that if the level of confidence is 99%, the value-at-risk calculated through HSAF methodology is greater than actual price changes in almost 97.6 percent of the forecasting period.

  19. FIDIC contracts: analysis of the impact of general and particular conditions on the financial risk management in Romanian infrastructure projects

    Constanţa-Nicoleta Bodea


    Full Text Available Construction projects are characterized by risks and uncertainties mainly due to technical and economic complexity. Risk management is an important tool in making decisions involving the identification and reduction, avoidance or transfer risk and uncertainties consequences of events that occurs during project implementation. For this reason, the objective of the contract between the beneficiary and the contractor is the allocation of risk. The distribution of risk in contracts for the execution of construction works was and is an ongoing challenge faced by parties having a significant impact on the type of contract is used. On the one hand, the beneficiaries tend to transfer to the contractors as many of the project risks and uncertainties, on the other hand, the contractors look to exploit any weakness contract, so as to reduce their impact on the expected profit. One of the most important risks assumed by the contractor by signing the contract which is also increasingly common in the current economic situation is the reduced financial capacity to support the project. A purely legal or purely technical interpretation is not meant to describe the complexity of issues related to implementation of construction projects. For this reason the authors have adopted a multi-disciplinary approach, which includes the legal issues related to the nature of the contract, but also the financial and technical aspects of construction projects. The paper aims to analyze how special contract clauses can influence the implementation of construction projects and in particular the financial management of contractors. The authors propose a model for analyzing the impact of FIDIC contract conditions applied on a case study of five transport infrastructure projects.

  20. Risk management of PPP project in the preparation stage based on Fault Tree Analysis

    Xing, Yuanzhi; Guan, Qiuling


    The risk management of PPP(Public Private Partnership) project can improve the level of risk control between government departments and private investors, so as to make more beneficial decisions, reduce investment losses and achieve mutual benefit as well. Therefore, this paper takes the PPP project preparation stage venture as the research object to identify and confirm four types of risks. At the same time, fault tree analysis(FTA) is used to evaluate the risk factors that belong to different parts, and quantify the influencing degree of risk impact on the basis of risk identification. In addition, it determines the importance order of risk factors by calculating unit structure importance on PPP project preparation stage. The result shows that accuracy of government decision-making, rationality of private investors funds allocation and instability of market returns are the main factors to generate the shared risk on the project.


    H. Atay


    Full Text Available This paper describes an on-going study that aims to develop a web-based spatial decision support system model for proactive health and safety management in linear construction projects. Currently, health and safety management is usually performed reactively instead of proactive management since hazard identification and risk assessment is mostly performed on paper based documents that are not effectively used at site. This leads to accidents and fatalities at construction sites. The proposed system automatically identifies the spatial risks according to the topographic and layout map of the site, project specification and health and safety regulations by means of spatial analysis. It enables the workers and management personnel to access the possible hazards and thematic risk map of any portion of the construction site for linear projects. Finally, the described approach provides the proposed mitigation measures for the identified hazards. The developed system is expected to raise awareness in H&S among workers and engineers, and increase participation of workers to health and safety management.

  2. Spatial Analysis Based Health and Safety Risk Assessment for Linear Construction Projects

    Atay, H.; Toz, G.


    This paper describes an on-going study that aims to develop a web-based spatial decision support system model for proactive health and safety management in linear construction projects. Currently, health and safety management is usually performed reactively instead of proactive management since hazard identification and risk assessment is mostly performed on paper based documents that are not effectively used at site. This leads to accidents and fatalities at construction sites. The proposed system automatically identifies the spatial risks according to the topographic and layout map of the site, project specification and health and safety regulations by means of spatial analysis. It enables the workers and management personnel to access the possible hazards and thematic risk map of any portion of the construction site for linear projects. Finally, the described approach provides the proposed mitigation measures for the identified hazards. The developed system is expected to raise awareness in H&S among workers and engineers, and increase participation of workers to health and safety management.

  3. Assessment of uncertainties in risk analysis of chemical establishments. The ASSURANCE project. Final summary report

    Lauridsen, K.; Kozine, Igor; Markert, Frank;


    This report summarises the results obtained in the ASSURANCE project (EU contract number ENV4-CT97-0627). Seven teams have performed risk analyses for the same chemical facility, an ammonia storage. The EC's Joint Research Centre at Ispra and RisøNational Laboratory co-ordinated the exercise...... on the ranking among the adherents of the probabilistic approach. Breaking down the modelling of both frequencyand consequence assessments into suitably small elements and conducting case studies allowed identifying root causes of uncertainty in the final risk assessments. Large differences were found in both...... the frequency assessments and in the assessment ofconsequences. The report gives a qualitative assessment of the importance to the final calculated risk of uncertainties in assumptions made, in the data and the calculation methods used. This assessment can serve as a guide to areas where, in particular...

  4. A decision model for energy companies that sorts projects, classifies the project manager and recommends the final match between project and project manager

    Elaine Cristina Batista de Oliveira


    Full Text Available Abstract This study presents an integrated model to support the process of classifying projects and selecting project managers for these projects in accordance with their characteristics and skills using a multiple criteria decision aid (MCDA approach. Such criteria are often conflicting. The model also supports the process of allocating project managers to projects by evaluating the characteristics/types of projects. The framework consists of a set of structured techniques and methods that are deemed very appropriate within the context of project management. A practical application of the proposed model was performed in a Brazilian electric energy company, which has a portfolio of projects that are specifically related to the company´s defined strategic plan. As a result, it was possible to classify the projects and project managers into definable categories, thus enabling more effective management as different projects require different levels of skills and abilities.

  5. Future meteorological drought: projections of regional climate models for Europe

    Stagge, James; Tallaksen, Lena; Rizzi, Jonathan


    historical control period (1971-2000). Confirming that the models successfully reproduce historical trends in European drought through validation testing is vital to establish confidence that the drought signal will be adequately predicted in future projections. Both historical validation runs and future projections are analyzed with regard to the mean (Welch two-sample t-test), overall distribution (Kolmogorov-Smirnov test), and frequency of droughts below a given percentile (Chi-square test) Historical validation also includes a non-parametric test for long-term trend. Results of these tests are presented spatially, at the highest resolution possible, highlighting regions with increasing drought risk. Use of a range of RCMs and GCM forcings provides a multi-ensemble projection, allowing for comparisons of the projected climate signal to model noise, showing where and when models agree. This study represents the highest resolution and best climate projections available applied to the hazard of extreme drought in Europe. Results will be important for policy makers and water managers as they discuss adaptation strategies for the future.

  6. Risk security and soil loss mitigation: the EU case study of the Sufalnet Project

    Marina Rigillo


    Full Text Available Former and abandoned landfills represent a good opportunity for producing new impervious surfaces for the urban environment, contrasting soil loss (specially the agricultural one and improving the recovery of brownfield. From such perspective, landfill redevelopment could be intended as the beginning of a new life cycle for the site, corresponding to a kick off action for achieving environmental and socio-economic development. This is the purpose of the Sufalnet Project (Sustainable Use of Former and Abandoned Landfill that defines a new approach for landfill redevelopment in form of model strategy by which reducing both the risk of the project failure and of the environmental pollution. Model strategy acts as cultural device for managing redevelop- ment process and its complexity.


    Land, Charles E.; Bouville, Andre; Apostoaei, Iulian; Simon, Steven L.


    Radioactive fallout from nuclear test detonations during 1946–1958 at Bikini and Enewetak atolls in the Marshall Islands (MI) exposed populations living elsewhere in the archipelago. A comprehensive analysis, presented in seven companion papers, has produced estimates of tissue-specific radiation absorbed dose to MI residents at all historically inhabited atolls from internal (ingested) and external radioactive components of fallout, by calendar year, and by age of the population at time of exposure. The present report deals, for the first time, with the implications of these doses on cancer risk among exposed members of the MI population. Radiation doses differed by geographic location and year of birth, and radiation-related cancer risk depends upon age at exposure and age at observation for risk. Using dose-response models based on committee reports published by the National Research Council and the National Institutes of Health, we project that, during the lifetimes of members of the MI population potentially exposed to ionizing radiation from weapons test fallout deposited during the testing period (1948–1958) and from residual radioactive sources during the subsequent 12 years (1959–1970), perhaps 1.6% (with 90% uncertainty range 0.4% and 3.4%) of all cancers might be attributable to fallout-related radiation exposures. The projected proportion of cancers attributable to radiation from fallout from all nuclear tests conducted in the Marshall Islands is 55% (28%–69%) among 82 persons exposed in 1954 on Rongelap and Ailinginae, 10% (2%–22%) for 157 persons exposed on Utrik, and 2% (0.5%–5%) and 1% (0.2%–2%), respectively, for the much larger populations exposed in mid-latitude locations including Kwajalein and in southern locations including Majuro. By cancer type, point estimates of attributable risk varied by location, between 12% and 95% for thyroid cancer, between 2% and 78% for leukemia, and between 1% and 55% for all cancers combined. The

  8. Mainstreaming Disaster Risk Management for Finance: Application of Real Options Method for Disaster Risk Sensitive Project


    Full Text Available This paper discusses the application of real options analysis for a project that is in the process of construction and was affected by a natural disaster. The use of the analytical method has become a way of thinking in making decisions that should be taught to business school students. The case in this paper is based on an MBA thesis at the University of Gadjah Mada that was intended as a showcase for application of real options to address real business problems. It shows one of the strategies in mainstreaming disaster risk management in the business school that also answers the needs of businesses in the disaster-prone country.


    Lech Jędrzejewski


    Full Text Available The paper is devoted to issues related to building a risk management system for businesses in the areas of operations and implementation of infrastructure projects. The article defines the concept of risk in business processes and identifies risks occurring in infrastructure projects. In the text, the principles have been presented for protection against the effects of political, contracting, environmental, ecological, product, process, operational and personnel risk.

  10. A Network Model of Credit Risk Contagion

    Ting-Qiang Chen


    Full Text Available A network model of credit risk contagion is presented, in which the effect of behaviors of credit risk holders and the financial market regulators and the network structure are considered. By introducing the stochastic dominance theory, we discussed, respectively, the effect mechanisms of the degree of individual relationship, individual attitude to credit risk contagion, the individual ability to resist credit risk contagion, the monitoring strength of the financial market regulators, and the network structure on credit risk contagion. Then some derived and proofed propositions were verified through numerical simulations.

  11. 土地开发项目风险分析与风险控制%Risk Analysis and Risk Control for Land Development Project



    Based on the features of land development project,analyses its risk factors in decision-making stage,proposes the model and procedures of project risk management,and puts forward some operability strategic approaches for the risk control in the implementation of land development project.%根据土地开发项目的特点,对土地项目开发决策阶段的风险因素等进行分析,提出项目风险管理模式和步骤,在此基础上对土地开发项目实施过程的风险控制提出可操作性的策略方法。

  12. Techniques and Simulation Models in Risk Management

    Mirela GHEORGHE


    In the present paper, the scientific approach of the research starts from the theoretical framework of the simulation concept and then continues in the setting of the practical reality, thus providing simulation models for a broad range of inherent risks specific to any organization and simulation of those models, using the informatics instrument @Risk (Palisade). The reason behind this research lies in the need for simulation models that will allow the person in charge with decision taking i...

  13. From risk management to uncertainty management: a significant change in project management

    LI Gui-jun; ZHANG Yue-song


    Starting with the meanings of the terms "risk" and "uncertainty,"" he paper compares uncertainty management with risk management in project management. We bring some doubt to the use of "risk" and "uncertainty" interchangeably in project management and deem their scope, methods, responses, monitoring and controlling should be different too. Illustrations are given covering terminology, description, and treatment from different perspectives of uncertainty management and risk management. Furthermore, the paper retains that project risk management (PRM) processes might be modified to facilitate an uncertainty management perspective,and we support that project uncertainty management (PUM) can enlarge its contribution to improving project management performance, which will result in a significant change in emphasis compared with most risk management.

  14. Research on Risk Evaluation of Transnational Power Networking Projects Based on the Matter-Element Extension Theory and Granular Computing

    Jinying Li


    Full Text Available In project management, risk assessment is crucial for stakeholders to identify the risk factors during the whole life cycle of the project. A risk evaluation index system of a transnational networking project, which provides an effective way for the grid integration of clean electricity and the sustainable development of the power industry, is constructed in this paper. Meanwhile, a combination of granular computing and order relation analysis (G1 method is applied to determine the weight of each indicator and the matter-element extension evaluation model is also employed to seek the global optimal decision during the risk assessment. Finally, a case study is given to validate the index system and evaluation model established in this paper by assessing two different investment schemes of a transnational high voltage direct current (HVDC transmission project. The result shows that the comprehensive risk level of Scheme 1 is “Low” and the level of Scheme 2 is “General”, which means Scheme 1 is better for the stakeholders from the angle of risk control. The main practical significance of this paper lies in that it can provide a reference and decision support for the government’s power sectors, investment companies and other stakeholders when carrying out related activities.

  15. Predicting stroke through genetic risk functions: the CHARGE Risk Score Project.

    Ibrahim-Verbaas, Carla A; Fornage, Myriam; Bis, Joshua C; Choi, Seung Hoan; Psaty, Bruce M; Meigs, James B; Rao, Madhu; Nalls, Mike; Fontes, Joao D; O'Donnell, Christopher J; Kathiresan, Sekar; Ehret, Georg B; Fox, Caroline S; Malik, Rainer; Dichgans, Martin; Schmidt, Helena; Lahti, Jari; Heckbert, Susan R; Lumley, Thomas; Rice, Kenneth; Rotter, Jerome I; Taylor, Kent D; Folsom, Aaron R; Boerwinkle, Eric; Rosamond, Wayne D; Shahar, Eyal; Gottesman, Rebecca F; Koudstaal, Peter J; Amin, Najaf; Wieberdink, Renske G; Dehghan, Abbas; Hofman, Albert; Uitterlinden, André G; Destefano, Anita L; Debette, Stephanie; Xue, Luting; Beiser, Alexa; Wolf, Philip A; Decarli, Charles; Ikram, M Arfan; Seshadri, Sudha; Mosley, Thomas H; Longstreth, W T; van Duijn, Cornelia M; Launer, Lenore J


    Beyond the Framingham Stroke Risk Score, prediction of future stroke may improve with a genetic risk score (GRS) based on single-nucleotide polymorphisms associated with stroke and its risk factors. The study includes 4 population-based cohorts with 2047 first incident strokes from 22,720 initially stroke-free European origin participants aged ≥55 years, who were followed for up to 20 years. GRSs were constructed with 324 single-nucleotide polymorphisms implicated in stroke and 9 risk factors. The association of the GRS to first incident stroke was tested using Cox regression; the GRS predictive properties were assessed with area under the curve statistics comparing the GRS with age and sex, Framingham Stroke Risk Score models, and reclassification statistics. These analyses were performed per cohort and in a meta-analysis of pooled data. Replication was sought in a case-control study of ischemic stroke. In the meta-analysis, adding the GRS to the Framingham Stroke Risk Score, age and sex model resulted in a significant improvement in discrimination (all stroke: Δjoint area under the curve=0.016, P=2.3×10(-6); ischemic stroke: Δjoint area under the curve=0.021, P=3.7×10(-7)), although the overall area under the curve remained low. In all the studies, there was a highly significantly improved net reclassification index (Pstroke and its risk factors result only in a small improvement in prediction of future stroke compared with the classical epidemiological risk factors for stroke.

  16. Projections of global changes in precipitation extremes from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models

    Toreti, A.; Naveau, P.; Zampieri, M.; Schindler, A.; Scoccimarro, E.; Xoplaki, E.; Dijkstra, H.A.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/073504467; Gualdi, S.; Luterbacher, J.


    Precipitation extremes are expected to increase in a warming climate; thus, it is essential to characterize their potential future changes. Here we evaluate eight high-resolution global climate model simulations in the twentieth century and provide new evidence on projected global precipitation

  17. Projections of global changes in precipitation extremes from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models

    Toreti, A.; Naveau, P.; Zampieri, M.; Schindler, A.; Scoccimarro, E.; Xoplaki, E.; Dijkstra, H.A.; Gualdi, S.; Luterbacher, J.


    Precipitation extremes are expected to increase in a warming climate; thus, it is essential to characterize their potential future changes. Here we evaluate eight high-resolution global climate model simulations in the twentieth century and provide new evidence on projected global precipitation extr

  18. A methodology for modeling regional terrorism risk.

    Chatterjee, Samrat; Abkowitz, Mark D


    Over the past decade, terrorism risk has become a prominent consideration in protecting the well-being of individuals and organizations. More recently, there has been interest in not only quantifying terrorism risk, but also placing it in the context of an all-hazards environment in which consideration is given to accidents and natural hazards, as well as intentional acts. This article discusses the development of a regional terrorism risk assessment model designed for this purpose. The approach taken is to model terrorism risk as a dependent variable, expressed in expected annual monetary terms, as a function of attributes of population concentration and critical infrastructure. This allows for an assessment of regional terrorism risk in and of itself, as well as in relation to man-made accident and natural hazard risks, so that mitigation resources can be allocated in an effective manner. The adopted methodology incorporates elements of two terrorism risk modeling approaches (event-based models and risk indicators), producing results that can be utilized at various jurisdictional levels. The validity, strengths, and limitations of the model are discussed in the context of a case study application within the United States.

  19. The sigma model on complex projective superspaces

    Candu, Constantin; Mitev, Vladimir; Schomerus, Volker [DESY, Hamburg (Germany). Theory Group; Quella, Thomas [Amsterdam Univ. (Netherlands). Inst. for Theoretical Physics; Saleur, Hubert [CEA Saclay, 91 - Gif-sur-Yvette (France). Inst. de Physique Theorique; USC, Los Angeles, CA (United States). Physics Dept.


    The sigma model on projective superspaces CP{sup S-1} {sup vertical} {sup stroke} {sup S} gives rise to a continuous family of interacting 2D conformal field theories which are parametrized by the curvature radius R and the theta angle {theta}. Our main goal is to determine the spectrum of the model, non-perturbatively as a function of both parameters. We succeed to do so for all open boundary conditions preserving the full global symmetry of the model. In string theory parlor, these correspond to volume filling branes that are equipped with a monopole line bundle and connection. The paper consists of two parts. In the first part, we approach the problem within the continuum formulation. Combining combinatorial arguments with perturbative studies and some simple free field calculations, we determine a closed formula for the partition function of the theory. This is then tested numerically in the second part. There we propose a spin chain regularization of the CP{sup S-1} {sup vertical} {sup stroke} {sup S} model with open boundary conditions and use it to determine the spectrum at the conformal fixed point. The numerical results are in remarkable agreement with the continuum analysis. (orig.)

  20. The Lunar Mapping and Modeling Project Update

    Noble, S.; French, R.; Nall, M.; Muery, K.


    The Lunar Mapping and Modeling Project (LMMP) is managing the development of a suite of lunar mapping and modeling tools and data products that support lunar exploration activities, including the planning, design, development, test, and operations associated with crewed and/or robotic operations on the lunar surface. In addition, LMMP should prove to be a convenient and useful tool for scientific analysis and for education and public outreach (E/PO) activities. LMMP will utilize data predominately from the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter, but also historical and international lunar mission data (e.g. Lunar Prospector, Clementine, Apollo, Lunar Orbiter, Kaguya, and Chandrayaan-1) as available and appropriate. LMMP will provide such products as image mosaics, DEMs, hazard assessment maps, temperature maps, lighting maps and models, gravity models, and resource maps. We are working closely with the LRO team to prevent duplication of efforts and ensure the highest quality data products. A beta version of the LMMP software was released for limited distribution in December 2009, with the public release of version 1 expected in the Fall of 2010.

  1. The KnowRISK project: Tools and strategies for risk communication and learning

    Musacchio, Gemma; Amaral Ferreira, Mónica; Falsaperla, Susanna; Piangiamore, Giovanna Lucia; Pino, Nicola Alessandro; Solarino, Stefano; Crescimbene, Massimo; Eva, Elena; Reitano, Danilo; Þorvaldsdottir, Solveig; Sousa Silva, Delta; Rupakhety, Rajesh; Sousa Oliveira, Carlos


    Damage of non-structural elements of buildings (i.e. partitions, ceilings, cladding, electrical and mechanical systems and furniture) is known to cause injuries and human losses. Also it has a significant impact on earthquake resilience and is yet being worldwide underestimated. The project KnowRISK (Know your city, Reduce seISmic risK through non-structural elements) is financed by the European Commission to develop prevention measures that may reduce non-structural damage in urban areas. Pilot areas of the project are within the three European participating countries, namely Portugal, Iceland and Italy. They were chosen because they are prone to damage level 2 and 3 (EMS-98, European Macroseismic Scale) that typically affects non-structural elements. We will develop and test a risk communication strategy taking into account the needs of households and schools, putting into practice a portfolio of best practice to reduce the most common non-structural vulnerabilities. We will target our actions to different societal groups, considering their cultural background and social vulnerabilities, and implement a participatory approach that will promote engagement and interaction between the scientific community, practitioners and citizens to foster knowledge on everyone's own neighborhoods, resilience and vulnerability. A Practical Guide for citizens will highlight that low-cost actions can be implemented to increase safety of households, meant as being the places where the most vulnerable societal groups, including children and elderly people, spend much of their time. Since our actions towards communication will include education, we will define tools that allow a clear and direct understanding of elements exposed to risk. Schools will be one of our target societal groups and their central role played at the community level will ensure spreading and strengthening of the communication process. Schools are often located in old or re-adapted buildings, formerly used for

  2. Modelling in Evaluating a Working Life Project in Higher Education

    Sarja, Anneli; Janhonen, Sirpa; Havukainen, Pirjo; Vesterinen, Anne


    This article describes an evaluation method based on collaboration between the higher education, a care home and university, in a R&D project. The aim of the project was to elaborate modelling as a tool of developmental evaluation for innovation and competence in project cooperation. The approach was based on activity theory. Modelling enabled a…

  3. Pataha Creek Model Watershed : 1998 Habitat Conservation Projects.

    Bartels, Duane G.


    The projects outlined in detail on the attached project reports are a few of the many projects implemented in the Pataha Creek Model Watershed since it was selected as a model in 1993. 1998 was a year where a focused effort was made to work on the upland conservation practices to reduce the sedimentation into Pataha Creek.

  4. PRISM: a planned risk information seeking model.

    Kahlor, LeeAnn


    Recent attention on health-related information seeking has focused primarily on information seeking within specific health and health risk contexts. This study attempts to shift some of that focus to individual-level variables that may impact health risk information seeking across contexts. To locate these variables, the researcher posits an integrated model, the Planned Risk Information Seeking Model (PRISM). The model, which treats risk information seeking as a deliberate (planned) behavior, maps variables found in the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB; Ajzen, 1991) and the Risk Information Seeking and Processing Model (RISP; Griffin, Dunwoody, & Neuwirth, 1999), and posits linkages among those variables. This effort is further informed by Kahlor's (2007) Augmented RISP, the Theory of Motivated Information Management (Afifi & Weiner, 2004), the Comprehensive Model of Information Seeking (Johnson & Meischke, 1993), the Health Information Acquisition Model (Freimuth, Stein, & Kean, 1989), and the Extended Parallel Processing Model (Witte, 1998). The resulting integrated model accounted for 59% of the variance in health risk information-seeking intent and performed better than the TPB or the RISP alone.

  5. Changing pattern of landslide risk in Europe - The SafeLand project

    Nadim, F.; Kalsnes, B.


    The need to protect people and property with a changing pattern of landslide hazard and risk caused by climate change and changes in demography, and the reality for societies in Europe to live with the risk associated with natural hazards, were the motives for the project SafeLand: "Living with landslide risk in Europe: Assessment, effects of global change, and risk management strategies." SafeLand is a large, integrating research project under the European Commission's 7th Framework Programme (FP7). The project started on 1 May 2009 and will end on 30 April 2012. It involves 27 partners from 12 European countries, and has international collaborators and advisers from China, India, USA, Japan and Hong Kong. SafeLand also involves 25 End-Users from 11 countries. SafeLand is coordinated by the International Centre for Geohazards (ICG) at Norwegian Geotechnical Institute in Norway. Further information on the SafeLand project can be found at its web site Main results achieved in SafeLand include: - Various guidelines related to landslide triggering processes and run-out modelling. - Development and testing of several empirical methods for predicting the characteristics of threshold rainfall events for triggering of precipitation-induced landslides, and development of an empirical model for assessing the changes in landslide frequency (hazard) as a function of changes in the demography and population density. - Guideline for landslide susceptibility, hazard and risk assessment and zoning. - New methodologies for physical and societal vulnerability assessment. - Identification of landslide hazard and risk hotspots for Europe. The results show clearly where areas with the largest landslide risk are located in Europe and the objective approach allows a ranking of the countries by exposed area and population. - Different regional and local climate model simulations over selected regions of Europe at spatial resolutions of 10x10 km and 2.8x2.8 km

  6. Bayesian modelling of geostatistical malaria risk data

    L. Gosoniu


    Full Text Available Bayesian geostatistical models applied to malaria risk data quantify the environment-disease relations, identify significant environmental predictors of malaria transmission and provide model-based predictions of malaria risk together with their precision. These models are often based on the stationarity assumption which implies that spatial correlation is a function of distance between locations and independent of location. We relax this assumption and analyse malaria survey data in Mali using a Bayesian non-stationary model. Model fit and predictions are based on Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation methods. Model validation compares the predictive ability of the non-stationary model with the stationary analogue. Results indicate that the stationarity assumption is important because it influences the significance of environmental factors and the corresponding malaria risk maps.

  7. Bayesian modelling of geostatistical malaria risk data.

    Gosoniu, L; Vounatsou, P; Sogoba, N; Smith, T


    Bayesian geostatistical models applied to malaria risk data quantify the environment-disease relations, identify significant environmental predictors of malaria transmission and provide model-based predictions of malaria risk together with their precision. These models are often based on the stationarity assumption which implies that spatial correlation is a function of distance between locations and independent of location. We relax this assumption and analyse malaria survey data in Mali using a Bayesian non-stationary model. Model fit and predictions are based on Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation methods. Model validation compares the predictive ability of the non-stationary model with the stationary analogue. Results indicate that the stationarity assumption is important because it influences the significance of environmental factors and the corresponding malaria risk maps.

  8. Model based climate information on drought risk in Africa

    Calmanti, S.; Syroka, J.; Jones, C.; Carfagna, F.; Dell'Aquila, A.; Hoefsloot, P.; Kaffaf, S.; Nikulin, G.


    The United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) has embarked upon the endeavor of creating a sustainable Africa-wide natural disaster risk management system. A fundamental building block of this initiative is the setup of a drought impact modeling platform called Africa Risk-View that aims to quantify and monitor weather-related food security risk in Africa. The modeling approach is based the Water Requirement Satisfaction Index (WRSI), as the fundamental indicator of the performances of agriculture and uses historical records of food assistance operation to project future potential needs for livelihood protection. By using climate change scenarios as an input to Africa Risk-View it is possible, in principles, to evaluate the future impact of climate variability on critical issues such as food security and the overall performance of the envisaged risk management system. A necessary preliminary step to this challenging task is the exploration of the sources of uncertainties affecting the assessment based on modeled climate change scenarios. For this purpose, a limited set of climate models have been selected in order verify the relevance of using climate model output data with Africa Risk-View and to explore a minimal range of possible sources of uncertainty. This first evaluation exercise started before the setup of the CORDEX framework and has relied on model output available at the time. In particular only one regional downscaling was available for the entire African continent from the ENSEMBLES project. The analysis shows that current coarse resolution global climate models can not directly feed into the Africa RiskView risk-analysis tool. However, regional downscaling may help correcting the inherent biases observed in the datasets. Further analysis is performed by using the first data available under the CORDEX framework. In particular, we consider a set of simulation driven with boundary conditions from the reanalysis ERA-Interim to evaluate the skill drought

  9. Integrating knowledge for managing risk in infrastructure projects: the case of tunnel works

    Chivatá Cárdenas, Ibsen


    The objective of traditional approaches to project risk management is to identify risks that can lead to project failure and to implement effective strategies to manage them. Information on the relevant causes and conditions in which failures arise is usually required as necessary input for

  10. Modeling foreign exchange risk premium in Armenia

    Poghosyan, Tigran; Kocenda, Evnen; Zemcik, Petr


    This paper applies stochastic discount factor methodology to modeling the foreign exchange risk premium in Armenia. We use weekly data on foreign and domestic currency deposits, which coexist in the Armenian banking system. This coexistence implies elimination of the cross-country risks and transact

  11. Risk Management Capability Maturity and Performance of Complex Product and System (CoPS Projects with an Asian Perspective

    Ren, Y.


    Full Text Available Complex Products and Systems (CoPS are high value, technology and engineering-intensive capital goods. The motivation of this study is the persistent high failure rate of CoPS projects, Asian CoPS provider’s weak capability and lack of specific research on CoPS risk management. This paper evaluates risk management maturity level of CoPS projects against a general CoPS risk management capability maturity model (RM-CMM developed by the authors. An Asian based survey was conducted to investigate the value of RM to project performance, and Asian (non-Japanese CoPS implementers’ perceived application of RM practices, their strengths and weaknesses. The survey result shows that higher RM maturity level leads to higher CoPS project performance. It also shows project complexity and uncertainty moderates the relationship between some RM practices and project performance, which implies that a contingency approach should be adopted to manage CoPS risks effectively. In addition, it shows that Asian CoPS implementers are weak in RM process and there are also rooms for improvement in the softer aspects of organizational capabilities and robustness.


    Petrişor MANDU


    Full Text Available The occurrence of risk situation and the manager’s awareness of it are serious threats for the organization and its objectives. Consequently, the manager has to have available, analyze, select and interpret many pieces of information, under stress, before making a decision for avoiding a disaster. Under these circumstances, a computerized model of risk management is the most adequate solution to make the intervention possibilities effective through a quicker and more accurate intervention. The model offers enough confidence and a favorable psychological state for managing risk. In accordance with this model, the risk manager processes the information by means of some operational (mathematical methods and that favors reaching optimum solutions in the shortest delay, based on some estimated anticipations through a rational model.

  13. Tools and Methods for Risk Management in Multi-Site Engineering Projects

    Zhou, Mingwei; Nemes, Laszlo; Reidsema, Carl; Ahmed, Ammar; Kayis, Berman

    In today's highly global business environment, engineering and manufacturing projects often involve two or more geographically dispersed units or departments, research centers or companies. This paper attempts to identify the requirements for risk management in a multi-site engineering project environment, and presents a review of the state-of-the-art tools and methods that can be used to manage risks in multi-site engineering projects. This leads to the development of a risk management roadmap, which will underpin the design and implementation of an intelligent risk mapping system.

  14. GrundRisk - Coupling of vertical and horizontal transport models

    Locatelli, Luca; Rosenberg, Louise; Bjerg, Poul Løgstrup

    This report presents the development of the GrundRisk model for contaminated site risk assessment.......This report presents the development of the GrundRisk model for contaminated site risk assessment....

  15. Modeling perceptions of climatic risk in crop production.

    Reinmuth, Evelyn; Parker, Phillip; Aurbacher, Joachim; Högy, Petra; Dabbert, Stephan


    In agricultural production, land-use decisions are components of economic planning that result in the strategic allocation of fields. Climate variability represents an uncertainty factor in crop production. Considering yield impact, climatic influence is perceived during and evaluated at the end of crop production cycles. In practice, this information is then incorporated into planning for the upcoming season. This process contributes to attitudes toward climate-induced risk in crop production. In the literature, however, the subjective valuation of risk is modeled as a risk attitude toward variations in (monetary) outcomes. Consequently, climatic influence may be obscured by political and market influences so that risk perceptions during the production process are neglected. We present a utility concept that allows the inclusion of annual risk scores based on mid-season risk perceptions that are incorporated into field-planning decisions. This approach is exemplified and implemented for winter wheat production in the Kraichgau, a region in Southwest Germany, using the integrated bio-economic simulation model FarmActor and empirical data from the region. Survey results indicate that a profitability threshold for this crop, the level of "still-good yield" (sgy), is 69 dt ha-1 (regional mean Kraichgau sample) for a given season. This threshold governs the monitoring process and risk estimators. We tested the modeled estimators against simulation results using ten projected future weather time series for winter wheat production. The mid-season estimators generally proved to be effective. This approach can be used to improve the modeling of planning decisions by providing a more comprehensive evaluation of field-crop response to climatic changes from an economic risk point of view. The methodology further provides economic insight in an agrometeorological context where prices for crops or inputs are lacking, but farmer attitudes toward risk should still be included in

  16. Fuzzy system for risk analysis in software projects through the attributes of quality standards iso 25000

    Chau Sen Shia


    Full Text Available With the growth in demand for products and services in the IT area, companies encounter difficulties in establishing a metric or measure of quality of services to address measurably qualitative values in their planning. In this work fuzzy logic, standard SQuaRE (measurement of the quality of software products, Likertscale, GQM method (Goal-Question-Metric -indicator of quality of Software and the project risk analysis model of Boehm were used to assess the quality of services and decision-making, according to your demand and requests for software development. With the aim of improving the quality in the provision of services, the application is used to integrate the team and follow the life cycle of a project from its initial phase, and to assist in the comparison with the proposed schedule during the requirements elicitation.

  17. Integrated Medical Model Project - Overview and Summary of Historical Application

    Myers, J.; Boley, L.; Butler, D.; Foy, M.; Goodenow, D.; Griffin, D.; Keenan, A.; Kerstman, E.; Melton, S.; McGuire, K.; hide


    Introduction: The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) Project represents one aspect of NASA's Human Research Program (HRP) to quantitatively assess medical risks to astronauts for existing operational missions as well as missions associated with future exploration and commercial space flight ventures. The IMM takes a probabilistic approach to assessing the likelihood and specific outcomes of one hundred medical conditions within the envelope of accepted space flight standards of care over a selectable range of mission capabilities. A specially developed Integrated Medical Evidence Database (iMED) maintains evidence-based, organizational knowledge across a variety of data sources. Since becoming operational in 2011, version 3.0 of the IMM, the supporting iMED, and the expertise of the IMM project team have contributed to a wide range of decision and informational processes for the space medical and human research community. This presentation provides an overview of the IMM conceptual architecture and range of application through examples of actual space flight community questions posed to the IMM project. Methods: Figure 1 [see document] illustrates the IMM modeling system and scenario process. As illustrated, the IMM computational architecture is based on Probabilistic Risk Assessment techniques. Nineteen assumptions and limitations define the IMM application domain. Scenario definitions include crew medical attributes and mission specific details. The IMM forecasts probabilities of loss of crew life (LOCL), evacuation (EVAC), quality time lost during the mission, number of medical resources utilized and the number and type of medical events by combining scenario information with in-flight, analog, and terrestrial medical information stored in the iMED. In addition, the metrics provide the integrated information necessary to estimate optimized in-flight medical kit contents under constraints of mass and volume or acceptable level of mission risk. Results and Conclusions


    Orlov A. I.


    Full Text Available For the first time we have developed a general additive-multiplicative model of the risk estimation (to estimate the probabilities of risk events. In the two-level system in the lower level the risk estimates are combined additively, on the top – in a multiplicative way. Additive-multiplicative model was used for risk estimation for (1 implementation of innovative projects at universities (with external partners, (2 the production of new innovative products, (3 the projects for creation of rocket and space equipmen

  19. A preliminary approach to quantifying the overall environmental risks posed by development projects during environmental impact assessment.

    Nicol, Sam; Chadès, Iadine


    Environmental impact assessment (EIA) is used globally to manage the impacts of development projects on the environment, so there is an imperative to demonstrate that it can effectively identify risky projects. However, despite the widespread use of quantitative predictive risk models in areas such as toxicology, ecosystem modelling and water quality, the use of predictive risk tools to assess the overall expected environmental impacts of major construction and development proposals is comparatively rare. A risk-based approach has many potential advantages, including improved prediction and attribution of cause and effect; sensitivity analysis; continual learning; and optimal resource allocation. In this paper we investigate the feasibility of using a Bayesian belief network (BBN) to quantify the likelihood and consequence of non-compliance of new projects based on the occurrence probabilities of a set of expert-defined features. The BBN incorporates expert knowledge and continually improves its predictions based on new data as it is collected. We use simulation to explore the trade-off between the number of data points and the prediction accuracy of the BBN, and find that the BBN could predict risk with 90% accuracy using approximately 1000 data points. Although a further pilot test with real project data is required, our results suggest that a BBN is a promising method to monitor overall risks posed by development within an existing EIA process given a modest investment in data collection.


    Zhou Ming; Guo Junyi


    In this article, a threshold dividend strategy is used for classical risk model.Under this dividend strategy, certain probability of ruin, which occurs in case of constant barrier strategy, is avoided. Using the strong Markov property of the surplus process and the distribution of the deficit in classical risk model, the survival probability for this model is derived, which is more direct than that in Asmussen(2000, P195, Proposition 1.10). The occupation time of non-dividend of this model is also discussed by means of Martingale method.

  1. Two criteria for evaluating risk prediction models.

    Pfeiffer, R M; Gail, M H


    We propose and study two criteria to assess the usefulness of models that predict risk of disease incidence for screening and prevention, or the usefulness of prognostic models for management following disease diagnosis. The first criterion, the proportion of cases followed PCF (q), is the proportion of individuals who will develop disease who are included in the proportion q of individuals in the population at highest risk. The second criterion is the proportion needed to follow-up, PNF (p), namely the proportion of the general population at highest risk that one needs to follow in order that a proportion p of those destined to become cases will be followed. PCF (q) assesses the effectiveness of a program that follows 100q% of the population at highest risk. PNF (p) assess the feasibility of covering 100p% of cases by indicating how much of the population at highest risk must be followed. We show the relationship of those two criteria to the Lorenz curve and its inverse, and present distribution theory for estimates of PCF and PNF. We develop new methods, based on influence functions, for inference for a single risk model, and also for comparing the PCFs and PNFs of two risk models, both of which were evaluated in the same validation data.

  2. Projective Market Model Approach to AHP Decision-Making

    Szczypinska, Anna


    In this paper we describe market in projective geometry language and give definition of a matrix of market rate, which is related to the matrix rate of return and the matrix of judgements in the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). We use these observations to extend the AHP model to projective geometry formalism and generalise it to intransitive case. We give financial interpretations of such generalised model in the Projective Model of Market (PMM) and propose its simplification. The unification of the AHP model and projective aspect of portfolio theory suggests a wide spectrum of new applications such extended model.

  3. A formal risk management process for instrumentation projects at the Anglo-Australian Observatory

    Orr, David R.; Heng, Anthony


    Risk management is a dynamic activity that takes place throughout the development process from the concept phase to the retirement phase of the project. The successful management of risk is a critical part of the instrumentation development process at the AAO. The AAO has a risk management process based on the AS/ISO standard for risk management. Brainstorming sessions are conducted with the project team. Potential project risks are identified by the team and grouped into the categories of technical, political, operational, logistical, environmental, and safety. A risk matrix is populated with details of each risk. The risk is then ranked based on the consequence and likelihood according to the scale of Low, Moderate, Significant, and High. The level of risk is evaluated; mitigation control mechanisms are identified, and assigned to a specific team member for resolution. Risk management is used as a management tool for the HERMES project. The top 5 risks are identified, and management efforts are then concentrating on reducing these risks. Risk management is also used during the development process as a trade study tool to evaluate different design options and assist senior management to make informed decisions.

  4. IT软件项目风险管理研究%Research on the Risk Management of IT Software Project



    在软件项目开发过程中,常常会遇到诸如需求风险、开发环境风险、预算风险等各种风险,为了降低诸多环节带来的风险,需要运用管理科学的先进手段,采用风险管理的方法来提高项目开发成功概率。目前风险管理的经典方法有Boehm理论, SEI的CRM模型, Leavitt模型, Charette 模型和Riskit风险模型等,通过对其中的CRM模型和Leavitt模型进行研究对比,提出了一种综合的风险管理方法。%In the process of software project development, it is often faced with various risks, such as the risk of de-mand, the development of environment risk, the risk of the budget, etc.In order to reduce the risk, we need to use the advanced management science, the risk management method to improve the project development success probabil-ity.At present, the classical methods of risk management are Boehm theory, CRM model, Leavitt model, Charette model, SEI model, Riskit risk model and the others.Through the research of CRM model and Leavitt model, a com-prehensive risk management method is put forward and the future research and development trends are discussed.

  5. Pilot study risk assessment for selected problems at the Fernald Environmental Management Project (FEMP)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Meinhold, A.F.; Baxter, S.L.; Holtzman, S.; Morris, S.C.; Pardi, R.; Rowe, M.D.; Sun, C. [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States); Anspaugh, L.; Layton, D. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States)


    Two important environmental problems at the USDOE Fernald Environmental Management Project (FEMP) facility in Fernald, Ohio were studied in this human health risk assessment. The problems studied were radon emissions from the K-65 waste silos, and offsite contamination of ground water with uranium. Waste from the processing of pitchblende ore is stored in the K-65 silos at the FEMP. Radium-226 in the waste decays to radon gas which escapes to the outside atmosphere. The concern is for an increase in lung cancer risk for nearby residents associated with radon exposure. Monitoring data and a gaussian plume transport model were used to develop a source term and predict exposure and risk to fenceline residents, residents within 1 and 5 miles of the silos, and residents of Hamilton and Cincinnati, Ohio. Two release scenarios were studied: the routine release of radon from the silos and an accidental loss of one silo dome integrity. Exposure parameters and risk factors were described as distributions. Risks associated with natural background radon concentrations were also estimated.

  6. Breast cancer risk prediction using a clinical risk model and polygenic risk score.

    Shieh, Yiwey; Hu, Donglei; Ma, Lin; Huntsman, Scott; Gard, Charlotte C; Leung, Jessica W T; Tice, Jeffrey A; Vachon, Celine M; Cummings, Steven R; Kerlikowske, Karla; Ziv, Elad


    Breast cancer risk assessment can inform the use of screening and prevention modalities. We investigated the performance of the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (BCSC) risk model in combination with a polygenic risk score (PRS) comprised of 83 single nucleotide polymorphisms identified from genome-wide association studies. We conducted a nested case-control study of 486 cases and 495 matched controls within a screening cohort. The PRS was calculated using a Bayesian approach. The contributions of the PRS and variables in the BCSC model to breast cancer risk were tested using conditional logistic regression. Discriminatory accuracy of the models was compared using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Increasing quartiles of the PRS were positively associated with breast cancer risk, with OR 2.54 (95 % CI 1.69-3.82) for breast cancer in the highest versus lowest quartile. In a multivariable model, the PRS, family history, and breast density remained strong risk factors. The AUROC of the PRS was 0.60 (95 % CI 0.57-0.64), and an Asian-specific PRS had AUROC 0.64 (95 % CI 0.53-0.74). A combined model including the BCSC risk factors and PRS had better discrimination than the BCSC model (AUROC 0.65 versus 0.62, p = 0.01). The BCSC-PRS model classified 18 % of cases as high-risk (5-year risk ≥3 %), compared with 7 % using the BCSC model. The PRS improved discrimination of the BCSC risk model and classified more cases as high-risk. Further consideration of the PRS's role in decision-making around screening and prevention strategies is merited.

  7. Java project on periodontal diseases. The natural development of periodontitis: risk factors, risk predictors and risk determinants : risk factors, risk predictors and risk determinants

    Van der Velden, U.; Abbas, F.; Armand, S.; Loos, B. G.; Timmerman, M. F.; Van der Weijden, G. A.; Van Winkelhoff, A. J.; Winkel, E. G.


    Objective: To identify risk factors, risk predictors and risk determinants for onset and progression of periodontitis. Material and Methods: For this longitudinal, prospective study all subjects in the age range 15-25 years living in a village of approximately 2000 inhabitants at a tea estate on Wes

  8. Java project on periodontal diseases. The natural development of periodontitis: risk factors, risk predictors and risk determinants : risk factors, risk predictors and risk determinants

    Van der Velden, U.; Abbas, F.; Armand, S.; Loos, B. G.; Timmerman, M. F.; Van der Weijden, G. A.; Van Winkelhoff, A. J.; Winkel, E. G.

    Objective: To identify risk factors, risk predictors and risk determinants for onset and progression of periodontitis. Material and Methods: For this longitudinal, prospective study all subjects in the age range 15-25 years living in a village of approximately 2000 inhabitants at a tea estate on

  9. Concordance for prognostic models with competing risks

    Wolbers, Marcel; Blanche, Paul; Koller, Michael T


    The concordance probability is a widely used measure to assess discrimination of prognostic models with binary and survival endpoints. We formally define the concordance probability for a prognostic model of the absolute risk of an event of interest in the presence of competing risks and relate i...... of the working model. We further illustrate the methods by computing the concordance probability for a prognostic model of coronary heart disease (CHD) events in the presence of the competing risk of non-CHD death.......The concordance probability is a widely used measure to assess discrimination of prognostic models with binary and survival endpoints. We formally define the concordance probability for a prognostic model of the absolute risk of an event of interest in the presence of competing risks and relate...... it to recently proposed time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve measures. For right-censored data, we investigate inverse probability of censoring weighted (IPCW) estimates of a truncated concordance index based on a working model for the censoring distribution. We demonstrate...

  10. Permafrost Degradation Risk Zone Assessment using Simulation Models

    Daanen, R.P.; Ingeman-Nielsen, Thomas; Marchenko, S.;


    In this proof-of-concept study we focus on linking large scale climate and permafrost simulations to small scale engineering projects by bridging the gap between climate and permafrost sciences on the one hand and on the other technical recommendation for adaptation of planned infrastructures...... to climate change in a region generally underlain by permafrost. We present the current and future state of permafrost in Greenland as modelled numerically with the GIPL model driven by HIRHAM climate projections up to 2080. We develop a concept called Permafrost Thaw Potential (PTP), defined...... as the potential active layer increase due to climate warming and surface alterations. PTP is then used in a simple risk assessment procedure useful for engineering applications. The modelling shows that climate warming will result in continuing wide-spread permafrost warming and degradation in Greenland...

  11. The use of intelligent systems for risk management in software projects

    Oksana A. Gushchina


    Full Text Available Introduction: The article identifies the main risks of a software project, examines the use of different types of intelligent systems in the risk management process for software projects, discusses the basic methods used for process estimation and forecasting in the field of software engineering, identifies currently used empty expert systems, software systems for analysis and risk management of software projects. Materials and Methods: The author describes the peculiarities of risk management in the field of software engineering with involvement of intelligent systems. The intelligent techniques allow solving the control task with expert precision without the involvement of human experts. Results: The result of this work: – identification of the key risks of a software project (tax, legal, financial and commercial risks, IT risks, personnel risks, risks related to competitors, suppliers, marketing and demand and market; – investigation of the current, applied to risk management of software system projects, artificial intelligence, particularly expert systems and software tools for evaluation of the process results; – identification of the most popular empty expert systems (Clips, G2 and Leonardo and software products of the analysis of large databases (Orange, Weka, Rattle GUI, Apache Mahout, SCaViS, RapidMiner, Databionic ESOM Tools, ELKI, KNIME, Pandas and UIMA; – consideration of the cluster, correlation, regression, factor and dispersion analysis methods for the estimation and prediction of the processes of software engineering. Discussion and Conclusions: The results show the feasibility of the application of various intelligent systems in the risk management process. The analysis of methods of evaluating risks and the tendency of their application in the modern systems of intellectual analysis can serve as a start point for creating a unified system of risk management for software projects of medium and high complexity with a

  12. A new model for polluted soil risk assessment

    Andretta, M.; Serra, R.; Villani, M.


    In this paper, we discuss the most important theoretical aspects of polluted soil Risk Assessment Methodologies, which have been developed in order to evaluate the risk, for the exposed people, connected with the residual contaminant concentration in polluted soil, and we make a short presentation of the major different kinds of risk assessment methodologies. We also underline the relevant role played, in this kind of analysis, by the pollutant transport models. We also describe a new and innovative model, based on the general framework of the so-called Cellular Automata (CA), initially developed in the UE-Esprit Project COLOMBO for the simulation of bioremediation processes. These kinds of models, for their intrinsic "finite and discrete" characteristics, seem to be very well suited for a detailed analysis of the shape of the pollutant sources, the contaminant fates and the evaluation of target in the risk assessment evaluation. In particular, we will describe the future research activities we are going to develop in the area of a strict integration between pollutant fate and transport models and Risk Analysis Methodologies.

  13. Study on the Early-Warning Management of Daqing’s Overseas Oil Drilling Project Risks-Based on Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Model%大庆海外石油钻探项目风险预警管理研究--基于模糊综合评价模型

    张洪大; 帅传敏; 郭晴


    This paper focuses on the research of overseas oil drilling projects contracted by Daqing drilling engineering company. Through our efforts to issuing and collecting 150 effective questionnaires; using literature research, questionnaire survey method, Delphi method, and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, we have studied the early-warning management system of overseas oil drilling project risks. On this basis, we have built risk early warning model regarding offshore oil drilling projects by using the method of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. Research shows that they have done well in controlling overall risks of overseas oil drilling projects in Daqing, but there are still numerous spaces for optimization. At the same time, political and economic risk, management risk, and ifnancial risk have a great inlfuence on overall risks of projects. In response to this, this paper suggests that we should take speciifc countermeasures to deal with the risks, monitor the higher level of risk factors, while ignore the lower level of risk factors. In addition, the improvements should be focused on political and economic risk, management risk, and ifnancial risk.%以大庆钻探工程公司承揽的海外石油钻探项目为研究对象,通过发放和收集150份有效调查问卷,采用文献研究法、问卷调查法、德尔菲法专家法、模糊综合评价法等方法,对海外石油钻探项目的风险预警管理体系进行了研究;采用模糊综合评价法构建了海外石油钻探项目的风险预警评价模型。研究显示:(1)大庆海外石油钻探项目的总体风险管控良好,但仍存在较大优化空间;(2)政治经济风险、管理风险和财务风险对项目总风险的影响很大。政策建议:(1)采取有针对性的风险应对策略,对于较低风险水平的因素可以忽略,而对于较高风险水平的因素必须进行监控;(2)主要从政治经济风险、管理风险和财务风险方面来改进。

  14. Optimization of the cumulative risk assessment of pesticides and biocides using computational techniques: Pilot project

    Jonsdottir, Svava Osk; Reffstrup, Trine Klein; Petersen, Annette

    This pilot project is intended as the first step in developing a computational strategy to assist in refining methods for higher tier cumulative and aggregate risk assessment of exposure to mixture of pesticides and biocides. For this purpose, physiologically based toxicokinetic (PBTK) models were...... developed for two compounds, tebuconazole and prochloraz, and a binary mixture of these compounds in two species, rat and human. PBTK models can be used to estimate the concentration levels (internal doses) of toxic substances and their metabolites in blood and tissue, by a collection of differential...... the models. Exposure scenarios were constructed based on findings of pesticide residues in food of ordinary consumers, and assessment of dermal exposure of professional workers. PBTK simulations were carried using these scenarios....

  15. Introduction to Financial Projection Models. Business Management Instructional Software.

    Pomeroy, Robert W., III

    This guidebook and teacher's guide accompany a personal computer software program and introduce the key elements of financial projection modeling to project the financial statements of an industrial enterprise. The student will then build a model on an electronic spreadsheet. The guidebook teaches the purpose of a financial model and the steps…

  16. Calibrated predictions for multivariate competing risks models.

    Gorfine, Malka; Hsu, Li; Zucker, David M; Parmigiani, Giovanni


    Prediction models for time-to-event data play a prominent role in assessing the individual risk of a disease, such as cancer. Accurate disease prediction models provide an efficient tool for identifying individuals at high risk, and provide the groundwork for estimating the population burden and cost of disease and for developing patient care guidelines. We focus on risk prediction of a disease in which family history is an important risk factor that reflects inherited genetic susceptibility, shared environment, and common behavior patterns. In this work family history is accommodated using frailty models, with the main novel feature being allowing for competing risks, such as other diseases or mortality. We show through a simulation study that naively treating competing risks as independent right censoring events results in non-calibrated predictions, with the expected number of events overestimated. Discrimination performance is not affected by ignoring competing risks. Our proposed prediction methodologies correctly account for competing events, are very well calibrated, and easy to implement.

  17. Risk analysis and insurance of geothermal projects; Risikoanalyse und Versicherung von Geothermieprojekten

    Scheuermeyer, R. [Willis GmbH und Co. KG, Koeln (Germany)


    Successful projecting of geothermal plants requires that the interests involved and the resulting risks must be analyzed carefully at an early stage. The contribution presents an outline of the potential risk sectors and factors and shows how these risks can be covered by insurance companies in a professional concept. (orig.)

  18. Evaluating the Investment Benefit of Multinational Enterprises' International Projects Based on Risk Adjustment: Evidence from China

    Chen, Chong


    This study examines the international risks faced by multinational enterprises to understand their impact on the evaluation of investment projects. Moreover, it establishes a 'three-dimensional' theoretical framework of risk identification to analyse the composition of international risk indicators of multinational enterprises based on the theory…

  19. Account to risk factor during realization of investment projects on railway transport

    Dicolenco, O.


    The article is devoted to the analysis of existent investment risks and ways of their minimization. Essence of notion is also exposed «investment risk» and classification of possible types of risks is resulted during realization of investment projects

  20. Evaluating the Investment Benefit of Multinational Enterprises' International Projects Based on Risk Adjustment: Evidence from China

    Chen, Chong


    This study examines the international risks faced by multinational enterprises to understand their impact on the evaluation of investment projects. Moreover, it establishes a 'three-dimensional' theoretical framework of risk identification to analyse the composition of international risk indicators of multinational enterprises based on the theory…

  1. Risk Simulation Modeling of Engineering Cost Based on MATLAB/SIMULINK


    Based on MATLAB/SIMULINK, the paper has proposed cost risk simulation models separately in accordance with the circumstances of correlation and independence between the influential factors of cost risk. The mean, variance and the risk level under the above-mentioned two circumstances have also been compared with a case study. Also the sensitivity analysis of cost risk has been probed into. The result indicates that the model which takes into account correlation is more objective, and the model which ignores the circumstance of correlation normally underestimates the risk level of project cost.

  2. Risk terrain modeling predicts child maltreatment.

    Daley, Dyann; Bachmann, Michael; Bachmann, Brittany A; Pedigo, Christian; Bui, Minh-Thuy; Coffman, Jamye


    As indicated by research on the long-term effects of adverse childhood experiences (ACEs), maltreatment has far-reaching consequences for affected children. Effective prevention measures have been elusive, partly due to difficulty in identifying vulnerable children before they are harmed. This study employs Risk Terrain Modeling (RTM), an analysis of the cumulative effect of environmental factors thought to be conducive for child maltreatment, to create a highly accurate prediction model for future substantiated child maltreatment cases in the City of Fort Worth, Texas. The model is superior to commonly used hotspot predictions and more beneficial in aiding prevention efforts in a number of ways: 1) it identifies the highest risk areas for future instances of child maltreatment with improved precision and accuracy; 2) it aids the prioritization of risk-mitigating efforts by informing about the relative importance of the most significant contributing risk factors; 3) since predictions are modeled as a function of easily obtainable data, practitioners do not have to undergo the difficult process of obtaining official child maltreatment data to apply it; 4) the inclusion of a multitude of environmental risk factors creates a more robust model with higher predictive validity; and, 5) the model does not rely on a retrospective examination of past instances of child maltreatment, but adapts predictions to changing environmental conditions. The present study introduces and examines the predictive power of this new tool to aid prevention efforts seeking to improve the safety, health, and wellbeing of vulnerable children.

  3. Meeting CCS communication challenges head-on: Integrating communications, planning, risk assessment, and project management

    Greenberg, S.; Gauvreau, L.; Hnottavange-Telleen, K.; Finley, R.; Marsteller, S.


    The Midwest Geological Sequestration Consortium, Schlumberger Carbon Services, and Archer Daniels Midland has implemented a comprehensive communications plan at the Illinois Basin - Decatur Project (IBDP), a one million metric tonne Carbon Capture and Storage project in Decatur, IL, USA funded by the U.S. Department of Energy's National Energy Technology Laboratory. The IBDP Communication Plan includes consortium information, funding and disclaimer citations, description of target audiences, media communications guidelines, paper and presentations guidelines, site visit information, crisis communication, on-site photography regulations, and other components. The creation, development, and implementation processes for the IBDP Communication Plan (the Plan) are shared in this paper. New communications challenges, such as how to address add-on research requests, data sharing and management, scope increase, and contract agreements have arisen since the Plan was completed in January 2009, resulting in development of new policies and procedures by project management. Integrating communications planning, risk assessment, and project management ensured that consistent, factual information was developed and incorporated into project planning, and constitutes the basis of public communications. Successful integration has allowed the IBDP to benefit from early identification and mitigation of the potential project risks, which allows more time to effectively deal with unknown and unidentified risks that may arise. Project risks and risks associated with public perception can be managed through careful planning and integration of communication strategies into project management and risk mitigation. ?? 2011 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  4. Downplaying model power in IT project work

    Richter, Anne; Buhl, Henrik


    Executives and information technology specialists often manage IT projects in project teams. Integrative IT systems provide opportunities to manage and restructure work functions, but the process of change often causes serious problems in implementation and diffusion. A central issue in the resea......Executives and information technology specialists often manage IT projects in project teams. Integrative IT systems provide opportunities to manage and restructure work functions, but the process of change often causes serious problems in implementation and diffusion. A central issue...... possible to put issues such as team functions and quality of work on the agenda. Simultaneously, participation competencies seem to have been enhanced....

  5. Dynamic Damage Modeling for IRAC Simulations Project

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — NASA's Integrated Resilient Aircraft Control (IRAC) Project, Preliminary Technical Plan Summary identifies several causal and contributing factors that can lead to...

  6. Queues and risk models with simultaneous arrivals

    Badila, E.S.; Boxma, O.J.; Resing, J.A.C.; Winands, E.M.M.


    We focus on a particular connection between queueing and risk models in a multidimensional setting. We first consider the joint workload process in a queueing model with parallel queues and simultaneous arrivals at the queues. For the case that the service times are ordered (from largest in the firs

  7. Scientific and methodical approach to the estimation of the risk level of public-private partnership projects

    L.L. Hrytsenko


    Full Text Available The aim of the article. The aim of the article is improvement of scientific and methodical approach to complex estimation of innovative projects risks through public-private partnership. The results of the analysis. Different models of state and business cooperation that are implemented through the public-private partnership are identified as an effective instrument of such special group of innovative projects as infrastructure projects. During the realization of public-private partnership such special features of infrastructure innovative projects as long-term and contractual character of relationships play one of the most important role. It becomes possible to implement using special forms of public-private partnership and financing models, realization of partner relation on competitive base, diversification of responsibility and risk between participants of public-private partnership. Risk of public-private partnership is recommended to identify as an economic category that characterizes probabilistic assessment of objective threat of losing by public-private partnership participants their material, financial, intellectual resources, subjectively expected revenue shortfall, creation of additional expenditures or any other deviations from the predicted parameters of efficiency. It can happen in a result of making decision about public and private sector cooperation during realization and in the result of changes in investment policy, innovative infrastructure projects innovation and investment environments. Realization of innovative projects in public-private partnership is connected with significant risks that occur at each stage of its realization and preparation. The long-term investments of innovative infrastructure projects, its high value and big quantity of participants, complex system of its financing and organizational structure cause that very urgent task in such projects realization is necessity of taking into account its investment

  8. Prioritization of Delay Factors for NPP Construction Risk in International Project by Using AHP Methodology

    Hossen, Muhammed Mufazzal; Kang, Sunkoo; Kim, Jonghyun [KEPCO International Nuclear Graduate School, Ulsan (Korea, Republic of)


    It is crucial for the nuclear power plant project decision makers and management personnel to identify the actual factors of construction delay and their ranking in order to take preventive actions. NPP project is complex in nature and the construction phase is one of the most key phase which is subject to many factors result from many sources. From experience, nuclear projects have faced challenges similar to other complex mega projects with additional nuclear specific issues and life time cost of nuclear reactor is concentrated upfront as capital cost, and therefore delays in construction may become intolerable in terms of both lost revenues and interest on the capital. Budget over-runs and delays on next generation new build nuclear projects in recent years clearly demonstrate that the nuclear industry continues to repeat its failed management and project control processes of the past. Similar to major infra-structure projects, actual completion times can vary substantially from initial estimates but this uncertainty is too crucial to the nuclear industry due to high levels of capital at risk, for every year a project is delayed the levelized cost of electricity increases by approximately 8-10%. causes of delay, to develop a generalized AHP model for delay factors, and to prioritize the risk in different factors in various levels of construction phase in international turnkey NPP project. This paper describes and prioritizes Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) construction schedule delay factor for turnkey international project. This study also determines the different party's importance in percentage behind the construction schedule delay of NPP which constitutes main contractor (28.4%), regulatory authority (27.3%), financial and country factor (23.5%), and utility (20.8%). Decision makers of nuclear industry can understand the significance of different factors on NPP construction phase and they can apply risk informed decision making to avoid unexpected

  9. MARR project risk matrices in radiotherapy; Proyecto MARR: matrices de riesgo en radioterapia

    Ramirez, M. L.; Perez Mulas, A.; Vilanova, J.; Prieto, C.; Delgado, J. M.; Alvarez, C.; Rodriguez, M.


    Radiotherapy is a complex process not without risk for the patient. The Council de Nuclear Safety (CSN), based on its cooperation with the health authorities regarding radiation protection of patient is promoting, through the project MARR, (Risk matrix in radiotherapy) the risk analysis in the radiotherapy departments of our country. This project represents the extension of methodologies applied in the nuclear sector other radiological practices. The aim is to share, with professional societies, the knowledge acquired by the CSN during its participation in the Ibero-American Forum of regulators (Forum) projects. (Author)

  10. Heuristic approach for risk assessment modeling: EPCCM application (Engineer Procure Construct Contract Management

    Ali F. Bakr


    Finally, EPCCM; modeling system is created to assist contract administrators, to diminish time, effort, wading back and forth between construction cases and developed projects. The result is a more efficient and proactive contract management environment by providing database for lessons learned in addition to tracking ongoing projects contractual risks, and consequently for issuing relevant decisions and activity plans.

  11. SR 97. Alternative models project. Stochastic continuum modelling of Aberg

    Widen, H. [Kemakta AB, Stockholm (Sweden); Walker, D. [INTERA KB/DE and S (Sweden)


    As part of studies into the siting of a deep repository for nuclear waste, Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) has commissioned the Alternative Models Project (AMP). The AMP is a comparison of three alternative modelling approaches to bedrock performance assessment for a single hypothetical repository, arbitrarily named Aberg. The Aberg repository will adopt input parameters from the Aespoe Hard Rock Laboratory in southern Sweden. The models are restricted to an explicit domain, boundary conditions and canister location to facilitate the comparison. The boundary conditions are based on the regional groundwater model provided in digital format. This study is the application of HYDRASTAR, a stochastic continuum groundwater flow and transport-modelling program. The study uses 34 realisations of 945 canister locations in the hypothetical repository to evaluate the uncertainty of the advective travel time, canister flux (Darcy velocity at a canister) and F-ratio. Several comparisons of variability are constructed between individual canister locations and individual realisations. For the ensemble of all realisations with all canister locations, the study found a median travel time of 27 years, a median canister flux of 7.1 x 10{sup -4} m/yr and a median F-ratio of 3.3 x 10{sup 5} yr/m. The overall pattern of regional flow is preserved in the site-scale model, as is reflected in flow paths and exit locations. The site-scale model slightly over-predicts the boundary fluxes from the single realisation of the regional model. The explicitly prescribed domain was seen to be slightly restrictive, with 6% of the stream tubes failing to exit the upper surface of the model. Sensitivity analysis and calibration are suggested as possible extensions of the modelling study.

  12. An analysis of European riverine flood risk and adaptation measures under projected climate change

    Bouwer, Laurens; Burzel, Andreas; Holz, Friederike; Winsemius, Hessel; de Bruijn, Karind


    There is increasing need to assess costs and benefits of adaptation at scales beyond the river basin. In Europe, such estimates are required at the European scale in order to set priorities for action and financing, for instance in the context of the EU Adaptation Strategy. The goal of this work as part of the FP7 BASE project is to develop a flood impact model that can be applied at Pan-European scale and that is able to project changes in flood risk due to climate change and socio-economic developments, and costs of adaptation. For this research, we build upon the global flood hazard estimation method developed by Winsemius et al. (Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2013), that produces flood inundation maps at different return period, for present day (EU WATCH) and future climate (IPCC scenarios RCP4.5 and 8.5, for five climate models). These maps are used for the assessment of flood impacts. We developed and tested a model for assessing direct economic flood damages by using large scale land use maps. We characterise vulnerable land use functions, in particular residential, commercial, industrial, infrastructure and agriculture, using depth-damage relationships. Furthermore, we apply up to NUTS3 level information on Gross Domestic Product, which is used as a proxy for relative differences in maximum damage values between different areas. Next, we test two adaptation measures, by adjusting flood protection levels and adjusting damage functions. The results show the projected changes in flood risk in the future. For example, on NUTS2 level, flood risk increases in some regions up to 179% (between the baseline scenario 1960-1999 and time slice 2010-2049). On country level there are increases up to 60% for selected climate models. The conference presentation will show the most relevant improvements in damage modelling on the continental scale, and results of the analysis of adaptation measures. The results will be critically discussed under the aspect of major

  13. Low Dose Radiation Cancer Risks: Epidemiological and Toxicological Models

    David G. Hoel, PhD


    The basic purpose of this one year research grant was to extend the two stage clonal expansion model (TSCE) of carcinogenesis to exposures other than the usual single acute exposure. The two-stage clonal expansion model of carcinogenesis incorporates the biological process of carcinogenesis, which involves two mutations and the clonal proliferation of the intermediate cells, in a stochastic, mathematical way. The current TSCE model serves a general purpose of acute exposure models but requires numerical computation of both the survival and hazard functions. The primary objective of this research project was to develop the analytical expressions for the survival function and the hazard function of the occurrence of the first cancer cell for acute, continuous and multiple exposure cases within the framework of the piece-wise constant parameter two-stage clonal expansion model of carcinogenesis. For acute exposure and multiple exposures of acute series, it is either only allowed to have the first mutation rate vary with the dose, or to have all the parameters be dose dependent; for multiple exposures of continuous exposures, all the parameters are allowed to vary with the dose. With these analytical functions, it becomes easy to evaluate the risks of cancer and allows one to deal with the various exposure patterns in cancer risk assessment. A second objective was to apply the TSCE model with varing continuous exposures from the cancer studies of inhaled plutonium in beagle dogs. Using step functions to estimate the retention functions of the pulmonary exposure of plutonium the multiple exposure versions of the TSCE model was to be used to estimate the beagle dog lung cancer risks. The mathematical equations of the multiple exposure versions of the TSCE model were developed. A draft manuscript which is attached provides the results of this mathematical work. The application work using the beagle dog data from plutonium exposure has not been completed due to the fact

  14. The MERINOVA project: MEteorological RIsks as drivers of environmental inNOvation in Agro-ecosystem management

    Gobin, Anne; Van de vijver, Hans; Zamani, Sepideh; Curnel, Yannick; Planchon, Viviane; Verspecht, Ann; Van Huylenbroeck, Guido


    Devastating weather-related events have captured the interest of the general public in Belgium. Extreme weather events such as droughts, heat waves and rain storms are projected to increase both in frequency and magnitude with climate change. Since more than half of the Belgian territory is managed by the agricultural sector, extreme events may have significant impacts on agro-ecosystem services and pose severe limitations to sustainable agricultural land management. The research hypothesis of the MERINOVA project is that meteorological risks act as drivers of environmental innovation in agro-ecosystem management. The major objectives are to characterise extreme meteorological events, assess the impact on Belgian agro-ecosystems, characterise their vulnerability and resilience to these events, and explore innovative adaptation options to agricultural risk management. The project comprises of five major parts that reflect the chain of risks: the hazard, its impact on different agro-ecosystems, vulnerability, risk management and risk communication. Impacts developed from physically based models not only provide information on the state of the damage at any given time, but also assist in understanding the links between different factors causing damage and determining bio-physical vulnerability. Socio-economic impacts enlarge the basis for vulnerability mapping, risk management and adaptation options. The perspective of rising risk-exposure is exacerbated further by more limits to aid received for agricultural damage and an overall reduction of direct income support to farmers. The main findings of each of these project building blocks will be communicated. MERINOVA provides for a robust and flexible framework by demonstrating its performance across Belgian agro-ecosystems, and by ensuring its relevance to policy makers and practitioners. A strong expert and end-user network is established to help disseminating and exploiting project results to meet user needs. The

  15. Multi-Agent Modeling in Managing Six Sigma Projects

    K. Y. Chau


    Full Text Available In this paper, a multi-agent model is proposed for considering the human resources factor in decision making in relation to the six sigma project. The proposed multi-agent system is expected to increase the acccuracy of project prioritization and to stabilize the human resources service level. A simulation of the proposed multiagent model is conducted. The results show that a multi-agent model which takes into consideration human resources when making decisions about project selection and project team formation is important in enabling efficient and effective project management. The multi-agent modeling approach provides an alternative approach for improving communication and the autonomy of six sigma projects in business organizations.

  16. Evaluation Of The Risk Of Financing Projects Of Environmental Protection

    Gabriela Cornelia PICIU; Gheorghe MANOLESCU; Florin Răzvan BĂLĂȘESCU; Georgiana CHIȚIGA; Cătălin DRĂGOI


    The research project approaches multidimensionally the financing of environmental protection from the perspective of directing, correlating and consolidating the financial flows circumscribed to the regeneration of an economy affected by environmental deterioration due to the very activities defining the economic mechanisms and circuits. The purpose of the project is to identify, by scientific, methodological and empirical analysis of the concepts, principles and arguments imposed by the econ...

  17. The STABALID project: Risk analysis of stationary Li-ion batteries for power system applications


    This work presents a risk analysis performed to stationary Li-ion batteries within the framework of the STABALID project. The risk analysis had as main objective analysing the variety of hazards and dangerous situations that might be experienced by the battery during its life cycle and providing useful information on how to prevent or manage those undesired events. The first task of the risk analysis was the identification of all the hazards (or risks) that may arise during the battery life c...


    S. Chihuri


    Full Text Available

    ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The role that project risk management plays in ensuring the successful delivery of engineering and construction projects in South Africa is addressed in this paper. A survey questionnaire was developed to establish approaches used for risk management, and tools and techniques for risk identification. The findings revealed that project risk management had a significant role to play in the success of projects in South Africa. Respondents whose organisations practised structured risk management processes reported success in their projects. The main challenge was found to be in the implementation of risk management tools and techniques. Thus it became apparent that widespread adoption of project risk management in South Africa seemed to be impeded by a low knowledge and skills base, especially in terms of its application.

    AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die rol wat projekrisikobestuur in die suksesvolle aflewering van ingenieurs- en konstruksieprojekte in Suid-Afrika speel word hier aangespreek.’n Vraelys is ontwikkel om benaderings tot risikobestuur asook toerusting en tegnieke vir risikoidentifisering te ondersoek. Die belangrikste bevinding is dat risikobestuur ’n belangrike rol speel in die sukses van projekte in Suid-Afrika. Die implementering van risikobestuurtoerusting en - tegnieke is aangedui as een van die grootste uitdagings wat oorkom moet word. Dit blyk dat die algemene aanvaarding van projekrisikobestuur in die Suid-Afrikaanse konteks bemoeilik word deur lae vlakke van kennis en vaardigheid.

  19. Sensitivity of Coastal Flood Risk Assessments to Digital Elevation Models

    Bas van de Sande


    Full Text Available Most coastal flood risk studies make use of a Digital Elevation Model (DEM in addition to a projected flood water level in order to estimate the flood inundation and associated damages to property and livelihoods. The resolution and accuracy of a DEM are critical in a flood risk assessment, as land elevation largely determines whether a location will be flooded or will remain dry during a flood event. Especially in low lying deltaic areas, the land elevation variation is usually in the order of only a few decimeters, and an offset of various decimeters in the elevation data has a significant impact on the accuracy of the risk assessment. Publicly available DEMs are often used in studies for coastal flood risk assessments. The accuracy of these datasets is relatively low, in the order of meters, and is especially low in comparison to the level of accuracy required for a flood risk assessment in a deltaic area. For a coastal zone area in Nigeria (Lagos State an accurate LiDAR DEM dataset was adopted as ground truth concerning terrain elevation. In the case study, the LiDAR DEM was compared to various publicly available DEMs. The coastal flood risk assessment using various publicly available DEMs was compared to a flood risk assessment using LiDAR DEMs. It can be concluded that the publicly available DEMs do not meet the accuracy requirement of coastal flood risk assessments, especially in coastal and deltaic areas. For this particular case study, the publically available DEMs highly overestimated the land elevation Z-values and thereby underestimated the coastal flood risk for the Lagos State area. The findings are of interest when selecting data sets for coastal flood risk assessments in low-lying deltaic areas.

  20. Uncertainty in surface water flood risk modelling

    Butler, J. B.; Martin, D. N.; Roberts, E.; Domuah, R.


    Two thirds of the flooding that occurred in the UK during summer 2007 was as a result of surface water (otherwise known as ‘pluvial') rather than river or coastal flooding. In response, the Environment Agency and Interim Pitt Reviews have highlighted the need for surface water risk mapping and warning tools to identify, and prepare for, flooding induced by heavy rainfall events. This need is compounded by the likely increase in rainfall intensities due to climate change. The Association of British Insurers has called for the Environment Agency to commission nationwide flood risk maps showing the relative risk of flooding from all sources. At the wider European scale, the recently-published EC Directive on the assessment and management of flood risks will require Member States to evaluate, map and model flood risk from a variety of sources. As such, there is now a clear and immediate requirement for the development of techniques for assessing and managing surface water flood risk across large areas. This paper describes an approach for integrating rainfall, drainage network and high-resolution topographic data using Flowroute™, a high-resolution flood mapping and modelling platform, to produce deterministic surface water flood risk maps. Information is provided from UK case studies to enable assessment and validation of modelled results using historical flood information and insurance claims data. Flowroute was co-developed with flood scientists at Cambridge University specifically to simulate river dynamics and floodplain inundation in complex, congested urban areas in a highly computationally efficient manner. It utilises high-resolution topographic information to route flows around individual buildings so as to enable the prediction of flood depths, extents, durations and velocities. As such, the model forms an ideal platform for the development of surface water flood risk modelling and mapping capabilities. The 2-dimensional component of Flowroute employs

  1. Future flood risk in Europe under high-end climate projections

    Alfieri, Lorenzo; Feyen, Luc; Bianchi, Alessandra; Burek, Peter; Dottori, Francesco; Forzieri, Giovanni; Roudier, Philippe


    Every year, new record-breaking hydrological extremes affect our society, fueling the debate between climate change and natural climate variability. A new generation of climate projections for the present century has recently become available, based on the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) adopted by the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. A number of COordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiments (CORDEX) were set up to provide high-resolution climatic scenarios over different areas of the world, where the European branch is referred to as EURO-CORDEX. In this work, an ensemble of EURO-CORDEX RCP 8.5 scenarios is used as input to a distributed hydrological model to assess the projected changes in flood hazard and flood risk in Europe through the current century. Statistical robustness is sought with the use of ensemble projections, through data aggregation over time (i.e., 30-year time slices) and space (i.e., country and river basin level), with the goal of detecting statistically significant trends over time and with regard to extreme events. A consistent method is proposed to evaluate the agreement of ensemble projections. Changes in the magnitude of average and extreme precipitation and streamflow are investigated through statistical tools and extreme value distribution fitting. A dedicated analysis on peaks over threshold is performed to evaluate changes in the frequency of extreme discharge peaks. The hazard component driven by the climate scenarios is then combined with exposure maps obtained from high resolution flood hazard maps and with vulnerability information, to estimate the overall flood risk in Europe under high-end climate projections. This work brings a number of novelties to address issues pointed out in previous flood risk assessments at continental scale: 1) flood hazard maps are derived by a 2D hydraulic model rather than through simplified approaches; 2) the frequency of extreme peak discharges is assessed more consistently through

  2. Genes and Environment in Multiple Sclerosis project: A platform to investigate multiple sclerosis risk.

    Xia, Zongqi; White, Charles C; Owen, Emily K; Von Korff, Alina; Clarkson, Sarah R; McCabe, Cristin A; Cimpean, Maria; Winn, Phoebe A; Hoesing, Ashley; Steele, Sonya U; Cortese, Irene C M; Chitnis, Tanuja; Weiner, Howard L; Reich, Daniel S; Chibnik, Lori B; De Jager, Philip L


    The Genes and Environment in Multiple Sclerosis project establishes a platform to investigate the events leading to multiple sclerosis (MS) in at-risk individuals. It has recruited 2,632 first-degree relatives from across the USA. Using an integrated genetic and environmental risk score, we identified subjects with twice the MS risk when compared to the average family member, and we report an initial incidence rate in these subjects that is 30 times greater than that of sporadic MS. We discuss the feasibility of large-scale studies of asymptomatic at-risk subjects that leverage modern tools of subject recruitment to execute collaborative projects.

  3. Modelling of Systemic Risk of Banking Sector

    Laura Gudelytė


    Full Text Available Purpose – to evaluate the general networking and simulation approaches of modelling of systemic risk and the financial contagion and their ability to assess the banking sector resilience in the case of external economic shocks and collapse of idiosyncratic financial institutions.Design/methodology/approach – a general overview of research papers presenting concepts and methodologies of assessment of systemic risk of the banking sector.Findings – limitations of the networking approach and possible ways to improve modelling of systemic risk. The network approach cannot explain the causes of initial default of bank. On the other hand, assumptions made on LGD and interbank exposures are very strong. These features are important limitations of network and simulation approaches.Research limitations/implications – the application of reviewed methods in the case of Lithuanian banking sector falls, however, due to the lack of exhaustive data. On the other hand, until now, applied methods for systemic risk due to the lack of data have been limited. Also, because of this reason, there are difficulties to create adequate dynamic assessment for systemic risk models. Therefore, in assessing systemic risk of the banking sector, the same problem remains: is it possible to parameterize the financial crisis, its spread and speed and other characteristics according to quantitative methods. Knowing the liquidity, credit risk and other standards set in Basel Accords, it is also not enough to properly manage the systemic risk of the whole banking sector because for the proper activity of the banking sector not only characteristics related to capital requirements have influence on it, but also external (mostly the macroeconomic, political factors.Practical implications – determination of the explicit connection based on quantitative methods determining the systemic risk of the banking sector would be exact and objective assessment and useful not only for the

  4. Know your diabetes risk project: Student pharmacists educating adults about diabetes risk in a community pharmacy setting.

    Letassy, Nancy; Dennis, Vincent; Lyons, Timothy J; Harrison, Don; Burton, Michael; Kirkpatrick, Alice

    To determine the feasibility of educating adults about their risk of prediabetes/diabetes in a community pharmacy, to determine the common risk factors for prediabetes/diabetes in adults visiting a community pharmacy, and to assess any association between risk factors and age. Cross sectional. Oklahoma community pharmacies between April 1 and December 31, 2008. 1,852 patients aged 18 to 80 years. Student pharmacists invited adults to complete a survey to assess their risk for diabetes/prediabetes. Students reviewed participants' risk and educated them on lifestyle changes to lower diabetes risk. Patient risk factors, pharmacy identifier, and pharmacy type (independent, chain, or clinic pharmacy) and location (rural, suburban, or city). Diabetes risk assessment and education of 1,852 adults was performed by 110 student pharmacists in 52 community pharmacies located in 27 cities across 13 (of 77) Oklahoma counties. Obesity/overweight was the most common risk factor (57%), with positive family history, hypertension, elevated cholesterol, member of high-risk ethnic group, and sedentary lifestyle being reported by at least 20% of participants. The number of risk factors increased with age, with a significant increase occurring in participants older than 40 years of age. This project demonstrated that it is feasible to perform diabetes risk assessment and to provide education on lowering that risk through community pharmacies.

  5. A Spatio-temporal Model of African Animal Trypanosomosis Risk.

    Ahmadou H Dicko

    Full Text Available African animal trypanosomosis (AAT is a major constraint to sustainable development of cattle farming in sub-Saharan Africa. The habitat of the tsetse fly vector is increasingly fragmented owing to demographic pressure and shifts in climate, which leads to heterogeneous risk of cyclical transmission both in space and time. In Burkina Faso and Ghana, the most important vectors are riverine species, namely Glossina palpalis gambiensis and G. tachinoides, which are more resilient to human-induced changes than the savannah and forest species. Although many authors studied the distribution of AAT risk both in space and time, spatio-temporal models allowing predictions of it are lacking.We used datasets generated by various projects, including two baseline surveys conducted in Burkina Faso and Ghana within PATTEC (Pan African Tsetse and Trypanosomosis Eradication Campaign national initiatives. We computed the entomological inoculation rate (EIR or tsetse challenge using a range of environmental data. The tsetse apparent density and their infection rate were separately estimated and subsequently combined to derive the EIR using a "one layer-one model" approach. The estimated EIR was then projected into suitable habitat. This risk index was finally validated against data on bovine trypanosomosis. It allowed a good prediction of the parasitological status (r2 = 67%, showed a positive correlation but less predictive power with serological status (r2 = 22% aggregated at the village level but was not related to the illness status (r2 = 2%.The presented spatio-temporal model provides a fine-scale picture of the dynamics of AAT risk in sub-humid areas of West Africa. The estimated EIR was high in the proximity of rivers during the dry season and more widespread during the rainy season. The present analysis is a first step in a broader framework for an efficient risk management of climate-sensitive vector-borne diseases.

  6. A Team Building Model for Software Engineering Courses Term Projects

    Sahin, Yasar Guneri


    This paper proposes a new model for team building, which enables teachers to build coherent teams rapidly and fairly for the term projects of software engineering courses. Moreover, the model can also be used to build teams for any type of project, if the team member candidates are students, or if they are inexperienced on a certain subject. The…

  7. A Team Building Model for Software Engineering Courses Term Projects

    Sahin, Yasar Guneri


    This paper proposes a new model for team building, which enables teachers to build coherent teams rapidly and fairly for the term projects of software engineering courses. Moreover, the model can also be used to build teams for any type of project, if the team member candidates are students, or if they are inexperienced on a certain subject. The…

  8. Issues in Value-at-Risk Modeling and Evaluation

    J. Danielsson; C.G. de Vries (Casper); B.N. Jorgensen (Bjørn); P.F. Christoffersen (Peter); F.X. Diebold (Francis); T. Schuermann (Til); J.A. Lopez (Jose); B. Hirtle (Beverly)


    textabstractDiscusses the issues in value-at-risk modeling and evaluation. Value of value at risk; Horizon problems and extreme events in financial risk management; Methods of evaluating value-at-risk estimates.

  9. Cardiovascular risk surveillance to develop a nationwide health promotion strategy: the grenada heart project.

    Bansilal, Sameer; Vedanthan, Rajesh; Woodward, Mark; Iyengar, Rupa; Hunn, Marilyn; Lewis, Marcelle; Francis, Lesley; Charney, Alexander; Graves, Claire; Farkouh, Michael E; Fuster, Valentin


    The Grenada Heart Project aims to study the clinical, biological, and psychosocial determinants of the cardiovascular health in Grenada in order to develop and implement a nationwide cardiovascular health promotion program. We recruited 2,827 adults randomly selected from the national electronic voter list. The main outcome measures were self-reported cardiovascular disease and behavioral risk factors, anthropometric measures, blood pressure, point-of-care testing for glucose and lipids, and ankle-brachial index. Risk factors were also compared with the U.S. National Health and Nutritional Survey data. Prevalence of cardiovascular disease risk factors were: overweight and obesity-57.7% of the population, physical inactivity-23.4%, diabetes-13.3%, hypertension-29.7%, hypercholesterolemia-8.6%, and smoking-7%. Subjects who were physically active had a significantly lower 10-year Framingham risk score (pNutrition Survey data, Grenadian women had higher rates of adiposity, diabetes, hypertension, and elevated low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, whereas Grenadian men had a higher rate of diabetes, a similar rate of hypertension, and lower rates of the other risk factors. Prevalence of peripheral arterial disease was 7.6%; stroke and coronary heart disease were equally prevalent at ∼2%. This randomly selected adult sample in Grenada reveals prevalence rates of obesity, hypertension, and diabetes significantly exceeding those seen in the United States. The contrasting, paradoxically low levels of prevalent cardiovascular disease support the concept that Grenada is experiencing an obesity-related "risk transition." These data form the basis for the implementation of a pilot intervention program based on the Institute of Medicine recommendations and may serve as a model for other low- and middle-income countries. Copyright © 2012 World Heart Federation (Geneva). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. EPC总承包项目综合集成风险管理%Integrated Risk Management for EPC Projects

    杨宝臣; 陈跃


    针对设计-采购-施工总承包(EPC)项目不同阶段的风险管理要求,设计了多元、动态的风险管理模块与评价指标体系,构建了EPC项目综合集成风险管理系统;综合运用德尔菲法、模糊层次分析、风险矩阵分析、模糊综合评价模型,构建了定性与定量相集成的风险评价方法;依照最低合理可行原则,设计了EPC项目综合集成风险管理流程.案例研究表明所构建的集成化风险管理方法的有效性,可以为EPC总承包商提供一整套规范、实用的风险管理与决策支持服务.%Risk management is an important issue for engineering, procurement, and construction(EPC)projects. In considering the risks at different phases for such projects, dynamic risk management modules and evaluation index systems are presented. Then, an integrated risk evaluation method is proposed by integrating Delphi, fuzzy analytic hierarchy process(FAHP), risk matrix method, and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model. With this method, risk can be evaluated in both qualitative and quantitative ways. Furthermore , risk management process for EPC projects is given. Based on the proposed method, an integrated risk management system for EPC projects is developed. A case study is presented to show the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  11. Development of generic key performance indicators for PMBOK® using a 3D project integration model

    Craig Langston


    Full Text Available Since Martin Barnes’ so-called ‘iron triangle’ circa 1969, much debate has occurred over how best to describe the fundamental constraints that underpin project success. This paper develops a 3D project integration model for PMBOK® comprising core constraints of scope, cost, time and risk as a basis to propose six generic key performance indicators (KPIs that articulate successful project delivery. These KPIs are defined as value, efficiency, speed, innovation, complexity and impact and can each be measured objectively as ratios of the core constraints. An overall KPI (denoted as s3/ctr is also derived. The aim in this paper is to set out the case for such a model and to demonstrate how it can be employed to assess the performance of project teams in delivering successful outcomes at various stages in the project life cycle. As part of the model’s development, a new PMBOK® knowledge area concerning environmental management is advanced.

  12. Simulation modeling for microbial risk assessment.

    Cassin, M H; Paoli, G M; Lammerding, A M


    Quantitative microbial risk assessment implies an estimation of the probability and impact of adverse health outcomes due to microbial hazards. In the case of food safety, the probability of human illness is a complex function of the variability of many parameters that influence the microbial environment, from the production to the consumption of a food. The analytical integration required to estimate the probability of foodborne illness is intractable in all but the simplest of models. Monte Carlo simulation is an alternative to computing analytical solutions. In some cases, a risk assessment may be commissioned to serve a larger purpose than simply the estimation of risk. A Monte Carlo simulation can provide insights into complex processes that are invaluable, and otherwise unavailable, to those charged with the task of risk management. Using examples from a farm-to-fork model of the fate of Escherichia coli O157:H7 in ground beef hamburgers, this paper describes specifically how such goals as research prioritization, risk-based characterization of control points, and risk-based comparison of intervention strategies can be objectively achieved using Monte Carlo simulation.

  13. A decision model for E and P petroleum projects using real options and preference theory

    Lima, Gabriel A.C. [Universidade Estadual de Campinas, SP (Brazil). Inst. de Geociencias. Lab. de Analise Geoconomica (LAGE); Suslick, Saul B. [Universidade Estadual de Campinas, SP (Brazil). Inst. de Geociencias. Centro de Estudo do Petroleo; Nepomuceno Filho, Francisco [PETROBRAS, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)


    The results from Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) are limited as a tool for decision-making in the petroleum industry because they do not properly take into account three important features of the modern investments: uncertainty, irreversibility, timing and corporation's risk-aversion. Recent developments in real options and preference theories have allowed decision-makers to employ these two approaches separately in the process of valuation and decision-making of risky projects. This paper presents a model for valuation and decision-making integrating discounted cash flow, real options and reference theory. This model seems to be suitable to answer to the following questions: what is the current value of an oil project? what is the optimal working interest in this project venture?; what is criteria to select projects considering investment irreversibility, uncertainty and timing to implement decisions? This model is applied to valuation and decision-making of a project to produce oil from a deep-water reservoir and its results are compared to those of the traditional approach. NPV model suggest that, as the project value is above its investment cost, the corporation should invest immediately and take 100% working interest in the project. Contrarily, the integrated model suggest the corporation should invest as long as project current value is as large as 1.85 times investment cost and should take only 44.38% working interest, whereas partners fund and acquire the remaining 55,62% of the project. In general, results indicate that NPV tend to pay more attention on return and does not account properly for risk. Then, as the uncertainty or volatile of strategic variables increases, the two models give more divergent results. (author)

  14. A Project Risk Ranking Approach Based on Set Pair Analysis

    Gao Feng; Chen Yingwu


    Set Pair Analysis (SPA) is a new methodology to describe and process system uncertainty. It is different from stochastic or fuzzy methods in reasoning and operation, and it has been applied in many areas recently. In this paper, the application of SPA in risk ranking is presented, which includes review of risk ranking, introduction of Connecting Degree (CD) that is a key role in SPA., Arithmetic and Tendency Grade (TG) of CDs, and a risk ranking approach proposed. Finally a case analysis is presented to illustrate the reasonability of this approach. It is found that this approach is very convenient to operate, while the ranking result is more comprehensible.


    V. V. Gasilov; D. V. Shitikov


    This article studies the main potential models of public-private partnership; it gives evaluation of risks for these models, considering their distribution between members of partnership. It offers the mechanism of making an optimal choice of a public-private partnership model for projects of transport system development.


    V. V. Gasilov


    Full Text Available This article studies the main potential models of public-private partnership; it gives evaluation of risks for these models, considering their distribution between members of partnership. It offers the mechanism of making an optimal choice of a public-private partnership model for projects of transport system development.

  17. Managing risks in business model innovation processes

    Taran, Yariv; Boer, Harry; Lindgren, Peter


    ) innovation is a risky enterprise, many companies are still choosing not to apply any risk management in the BM innovation process. The objective of this paper is to develop a better understanding of how risks are handled in the practice of BM innovation. An analysis of the BM innovation experiences of two......Companies today, in some industries more than others, invest more capital and resources just to stay competitive, develop more diverse solutions, and increasingly start thinking more radically when considering their business models. However, despite the understanding that business model (BM...... industrial companies shows that both companies are experiencing high levels of uncertainty and complexity during their innovation processes and are, consequently, struggling to find new processes for handling the risks involved. Based on the two companies’ experiences, various testable propositions are put...

  18. Risk management in public sector construction projects: Case ...

    (PM), which entails risk management (RM) as one of its essential knowledge .... as environmental, technical, scheduling, contractual, financial, and management ..... use of accredited institutions could be an immediate means of improving the ...

  19. Risk Informed Design Using Integrated Vehicle Rapid Assessment Tools Project

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — A successful proof of concept was performed in FY 2012 integrating the Envision tool for parametric estimates of vehicle mass and the Rapid Response Risk Assessment...

  20. Identifying and managing risk in international construction projects

    Marshall, William; Kerur, Sachin


    .... However, foreign markets are littered with the cautionary tales of international contractors and consultants that have failed to grasp the intricacies and risks of operating in a new environment...

  1. Simulation Approach to Mission Risk and Reliability Analysis Project

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — It is proposed to develop and demonstrate an integrated total-system risk and reliability analysis approach that is based on dynamic, probabilistic simulation. This...

  2. Project risk definition and measurement in a not-for-profit setting.

    Gapenski, L C


    The health care finance literature on capital investment decisions generally applies conventional market risk concepts without distinguishing between proprietary and not-for-profit forms of organization. Since proprietary firms have shareholder wealth maximization as their primary goal, a project's relevant risk is its contribution to the riskiness of the equity investors' well diversified stock portfolios, or its market risk. However, not-for-profit organizations do not have shareholder wealth maximization as their primary goal, and thus market risk concepts are not applicable. Rather, the relevant risk in a not-for-profit setting is a project's corporate risk; that is, the project's contribution to the riskiness of the organization. The difference in risk definition and measurement between proprietary and not-for-profit firms has two implications for managerial decisions: (1) in making capital investment decisions, a manager must define and measure a project's riskiness on the basis of the firm's organizational form; and (2) although diversification for the sole purpose of risk reduction is not a valid rationale for proprietary firms because stockholders can achieve the same result at less cost, risk-reducing diversification does make sense for not-for-profit firms.

  3. Evaluation and financial risk management of urban renewal projects in partnership with public and private

    Ehsan Hassani


    Full Text Available Financing plays an important role for renewal of old city building is find suitable financing plan. A proper financial management in one hand has a direct relationship with project main factors such as: time, cost and quality of the project, and on the other hand, achieving project goals requires a comprehensive insight of project, stockholders as well as other relative situation in regard with the project. Considering the complication of execution such projects and the number of shareholders, one of the best attitudes towards the project management is risk management. This research is a qualitative and practical, which reviews the effects of project management factors on financial return of urban renewal sachem. The required information gained through a survey and via questionnaire and interviews with specialists. This article first describes the public private financial partnership and then, based on the results gained from a case study done on one of the renewal schemes in Mashhad metropolitan areas. Next, it identifies and evaluates of positive and negative risks, which lead to threats and opportunities will be performed and will attempt to respond the existent risks. Finally, we provide a framework for the risk assessment of the housing units.

  4. Risk Management Affecting IS/IT Project Success Through Communicative Action

    de Bakker, K.F.C.; Boonstra, A.; Wortmann, J.C.

    Project risk management is defined in the literature as being instrumental action based on rational problem solving. Research indicates limited positive effects of an exclusive focus of instrumental action on project success. This article proposes to extend this instrumental view through

  5. Contractors’ Strategic Approaches to Risk Assessment Techniques at Project Planning Stage

    Ahmad Zaini, Afzan; Endut, Intan Rohani; Takim, Roshana


    Abstract — The construction industry is still plagued by poor quality, poor workmanship, poor safety and health environment, and poor practices. The current main problem in the Malaysian Construction Industry is delayed projects under the Ninth Malaysia Plan. The idea of introducing formal risk assessment among Malaysian contractors during the project planning stage is a proactive approach to achieve project objectives. Therefore, this research intends to achieve the following objectives: (1)...

  6. Risk Modelling and Management: An Overview

    C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); D.E. Allen (David); M.J. McAleer (Michael); T. Pérez-Amaral (Teodosio)


    textabstractThe papers in this special issue of Mathematics and Computers in Simulation are substantially revised versions of the papers that were presented at the 2011 Madrid International Conference on “Risk Modelling and Management” (RMM2011). The papers cover the following topics: currency

  7. Risk modelling and management: An overview

    C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); D.E. Allen (David); M.J. McAleer (Michael); T. Pérez-Amaral (Teodosio)


    textabstractThe papers in this special issue of Mathematics and Computers in Simulation are substantially revised versions of the papers that were presented at the 2011 Madrid International Conference on "Risk Modelling and Management" (RMM2011). The papers cover the following topics: currency hedgi

  8. Risk Modelling and Management: An Overview

    C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); D.E. Allen (David); M.J. McAleer (Michael); T. Pérez-Amaral (Teodosio)


    textabstractThe papers in this special issue of Mathematics and Computers in Simulation are substantially revised versions of the papers that were presented at the 2011 Madrid International Conference on “Risk Modelling and Management” (RMM2011). The papers cover the following topics: currency hedgi

  9. A Probabilistic Asteroid Impact Risk Model

    Mathias, Donovan L.; Wheeler, Lorien F.; Dotson, Jessie L.


    Asteroid threat assessment requires the quantification of both the impact likelihood and resulting consequence across the range of possible events. This paper presents a probabilistic asteroid impact risk (PAIR) assessment model developed for this purpose. The model incorporates published impact frequency rates with state-of-the-art consequence assessment tools, applied within a Monte Carlo framework that generates sets of impact scenarios from uncertain parameter distributions. Explicit treatment of atmospheric entry is included to produce energy deposition rates that account for the effects of thermal ablation and object fragmentation. These energy deposition rates are used to model the resulting ground damage, and affected populations are computed for the sampled impact locations. The results for each scenario are aggregated into a distribution of potential outcomes that reflect the range of uncertain impact parameters, population densities, and strike probabilities. As an illustration of the utility of the PAIR model, the results are used to address the question of what minimum size asteroid constitutes a threat to the population. To answer this question, complete distributions of results are combined with a hypothetical risk tolerance posture to provide the minimum size, given sets of initial assumptions. Model outputs demonstrate how such questions can be answered and provide a means for interpreting the effect that input assumptions and uncertainty can have on final risk-based decisions. Model results can be used to prioritize investments to gain knowledge in critical areas or, conversely, to identify areas where additional data has little effect on the metrics of interest.




    Full Text Available Using Information Technologies in organizations represents an evident progress for company, money economy, time economy and generates value for the organization. In this paper the author proposes to model the business processes for an organization that manages projects costs, because modelling is an important part of any software development process. Using software for projects costs management is essential because it allows the management of all operations according to the established parameters, the management of the projects groups, as well as the management of the projects and subprojects, at different complexity levels.

  11. A Hybrid Grey Based KOHONEN Model and Biogeography-Based Optimization for Project Portfolio Selection

    Farshad Faezy Razi


    Full Text Available The problem of selection and the best option are the main subject of operation research science in decision-making theory. Selection is a process that scrutinizes and investigates several quantitative and qualitative, and most often incompatible, factors. One of the most fundamental management issues in multicriteria selection literature is the multicriteria adoption of the projects portfolio. In such decision-making condition, manager is seeking for the best combination to build up a portfolio among the existing projects. In the present paper, KOHONEN algorithm was first employed to build up a portfolio of the projects. Next, each portfolio was evaluated using grey relational analysis (GRA and then scheduled risk of the project was predicted using Mamdani fuzzy inference method. Finally, the multiobjective biogeography-based optimization algorithm was utilized for drawing risk and rank Pareto analysis. A case study is used concurrently to show the efficiency of the proposed model.

  12. Risk management tools from the traditional energy industry to wind energy projects

    Randall, G.; Marks, R. [Det Norske Veritas, Katy, TX (United States)


    Risk-based analysis techniques are used to quantify and prioritize a wide variety of problems within the traditional fossil fuel and nuclear power industries. This poster presentation evaluated some of the risk analysis tools and methods used by the energy industry to quantify and manage wind energy development risks. A comprehensive risk-based approach for identifying the probability and consequences of potential concerns was presented for a sample wind energy project. The process determined objectives in relation to the project's net present value. Contributing domains included the energy production, prices, and operating costs of the project. Decision criteria used to evaluate the desirability of the wind project were then developed. Monte Carlo simulations were the used to aggregate individual risks into an overall total. The contribution of each element to the decision objective was calculated separately. The element outputs were than combined into a measure of aggregate risk exposure. Aggregate results were used to calculate the decision criteria. The decision objective was to determine if the energy cost was less than the avoided cost of other project options. The study showed that the approach can allow decision-makers to mitigate risks. However, the results are dependent on the quality of the input data. tabs., figs.

  13. Risks and chances of combined forestry and biomass projects under the Clean Development Mechanism

    Dutschke, Michael; Kapp, Gerald; Lehmann, Anna; Schaefer, Volkmar (Hamburg Inst. International Economics (Germany))


    The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) aims at reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, while at the same time taking up CO{sub 2} from the atmosphere in vegetation by means of afforestation and reforestation. In spite of these options being complementary, rules and modalities for both project classes are being treated separately in the relevant decisions by the Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. The present study reviews the state of bioenergy use in developing countries, modalities and procedures under the CDM, and the potential for transaction cost reduction in climate mitigation projects. There are four potential types of combinations in the matrix between small-scale - large-scale / afforestation and reforestation - bioenergy activities. We develop criteria for assessing sustainable development benefits and present an example project for each of the potential project types. We find that the individual risks of single-category projects do not increase when combining project categories and that each combination holds potential for integrated sustainability benefits. Risks for local livelihoods do increase with project size, but a transparent, participatory planning phase is able to counterbalance smallholders' lack of negotiation power. Further research will have to develop concrete project examples and blueprints with approved CDM methodologies, thereby decreasing transaction costs and risk for all potential project partners. (au)

  14. Project finance risk evaluation of the Electric power industry of Serbia

    Makajic Nikolic, Dragana [Faculty of Organizational Sciences, University of Belgrade, Jove Ilica 154, 11000 Belgrade (Serbia); Jednak, Sandra, E-mail: [Faculty of Organizational Sciences, University of Belgrade, Jove Ilica 154, 11000 Belgrade (Serbia); Benkovic, Sladana [Faculty of Organizational Sciences, University of Belgrade, Jove Ilica 154, 11000 Belgrade (Serbia); Poznanic, Vladimir [Faculty of Economics, University of Belgrade, Kamenicka 6, 11000 Belgrade (Serbia)


    From the aspect of the development of a country, the energy sector represents a domain of strategic interest. Generation and use of energy resources most often belongs to the public sector, and are most often under the influence of the government in most countries. This paper analyzes the risks that are characteristic to the business of the public enterprise, Electric Power Industry of Serbia (EPS). EPS has started its restructuring and is adjusting to changes and challenges imposed by the launched reforms in the energy sector. However, due to certain limitations, it is still not possible to implement its complete restructuring and modernization. The paper aims to point at the risks a potential strategic partner faces. The risks have been identified as commercial, financial and political, classification immanent for project finance, and their evaluation was done using Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA). Risk analysis was performed based on current conditions for two potential scenarios that predict different types of changes in the analyzed period. The results of the analysis show that the potential strategic partner should pay special attention to price risks, estimation, investments, project activity neglect, quasi-risks and debt collection. - Highlights: > Paper analyze all risks characteristic for business running of the public enterprise EPS. > Potential strategic partner faces with the commercial, financial and political risks. > Risk analysis was done using FMEA. > Results are indicating high risk of investing in EPS. > The highest risks are commercial risks, especially price risks.

  15. Validation of HEDR models. Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Project

    Napier, B.A.; Simpson, J.C.; Eslinger, P.W.; Ramsdell, J.V. Jr.; Thiede, M.E.; Walters, W.H.


    The Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction (HEDR) Project has developed a set of computer models for estimating the possible radiation doses that individuals may have received from past Hanford Site operations. This document describes the validation of these models. In the HEDR Project, the model validation exercise consisted of comparing computational model estimates with limited historical field measurements and experimental measurements that are independent of those used to develop the models. The results of any one test do not mean that a model is valid. Rather, the collection of tests together provide a level of confidence that the HEDR models are valid.

  16. Development of a GCR Event-based Risk Model

    Cucinotta, Francis A.; Ponomarev, Artem L.; Plante, Ianik; Carra, Claudio; Kim, Myung-Hee


    GCR event rates mapped to biological signaling induction and relaxation times. We considered several hypotheses related to signaling and cancer risk, and then performed simulations for conditions where aberrant or adaptive signaling would occur on long-duration space mission. Our results do not support the conventional assumptions of dose, linearity and additivity. A discussion on how event-based systems biology models, which focus on biological signaling as the mechanism to propagate damage or adaptation, can be further developed for cancer and CNS space radiation risk projections is given.

  17. Wake models developed during the Wind Shadow project

    Larsen, S.; Ott, S.; Pena, A.; Berg, J.; Nielsen, M.; Rathmann, O.; Joergensen, H.


    The Wind Shadow project has developed and validated improved models for determining the wakes losses, and thereby the array efficiency of very large, closely packed wind farms. The rationale behind the project has been that the existing software has been covering these types of wind farms poorly, both with respect to the densely packed turbines and the large fetches needed to describe the collective shadow effects of one farm to the next. Further the project has developed the necessary software for the use of the models. Guidelines with recommendations for the use of the models are included in the model deliverables. The project has been carried out as a collaborative project between Risoe DTU, DONG, Vattenfall, DNV and VESTAS, and it has been financed by grant no. 10086. (Author)

  18. Risk management in a large-scale CO2 geosequestration pilot project, Illinois, USA

    Hnottavange-Telleen, K.; Chabora, E.; Finley, R.J.; Greenberg, S.E.; Marsteller, S.


    Like most large-scale infrastructure projects, carbon dioxide (CO 2) geological sequestration (GS) projects have multiple success criteria and multiple stakeholders. In this context "risk evaluation" encompasses multiple scales. Yet a risk management program aims to maximize the chance of project success by assessing, monitoring, minimizing all risks in a consistent framework. The 150,000-km2 Illinois Basin underlies much of the state of Illinois, USA, and parts of adjacent Kentucky and Indiana. Its potential for CO2 storage is first-rate among basins in North America, an impression that has been strengthened by early testing of the injection well of the Midwest Geological Sequestration Consortium's (MGSC's) Phase III large scale demonstration project, the Illinois Basin - Decatur Project (IBDP). The IBDP, funded by the U.S. Department of Energy's National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), represents a key trial of GS technologies and project-management techniques. Though risks are specific to each site and project, IBDP risk management methodologies provide valuable experience for future GS projects. IBDP views risk as the potential for negative impact to any of these five values: health and safety, environment, financial, advancing the viability and public acceptability of a GS industry, and research. Research goals include monitoring one million metric tonnes of injected CO2 in the subsurface. Risk management responds to the ways in which any values are at risk: for example, monitoring is designed to reduce uncertainties in parameter values that are important for research and system control, and is also designed to provide public assurance. Identified risks are the primary basis for risk-reduction measures: risks linked to uncertainty in geologic parameters guide further characterization work and guide simulations applied to performance evaluation. Formally, industry defines risk (more precisely risk criticality) as the product L*S, the Likelihood multiplied

  19. Cardiovascular risk in Gullah African Americans with high familial risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus: project SuGAR.

    Hunt, Kelly J; Kistner-Griffin, Emily; Spruill, Ida; Teklehaimanot, Abeba A; Garvey, W Timothy; Sale, Michèle; Fernandes, Jyotika


    To determine the prevalence of cardiovascular disease, levels of cardiovascular risk factors, and extent of preventive care in Gullah African Americans with a high familial risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus. Between 1995 and 2003, 1321 Gullah African Americans with a high prevalence of diabetes mellitus from the South Carolina Sea Islands consented to and enrolled in the Sea Islands Genetic African American Registry (Project SuGAR). A cross-sectional analysis of cardiometabolic risk, preventive care, and self-reported cardiovascular disease was conducted. Cardiometabolic risk factor levels were high and vascular disease was prevalent. Among the subjects with diabetes mellitus, the mean disease duration was 10.5 years; approximately one-third reported reduced vision or blindness; and >80% reported numbness, pain, or burning in their feet. Preventive diabetes care was limited, with level of cardiovascular risk in this population but also the pathophysiological mechanisms central to ancestral differences in cardiometabolic risk in the broader African American population.

  20. Determination of risk identification process employed by NHS for a PFI hospital project in the UK

    F. E. Mohamed Ghazali


    Full Text Available Long-term concession contracts associated with Private Finance Initiative (PFI projects, such as National Health Service (NHS hospitals, are subject to substantial risks, which may not only emerge from project activities such as design and construction, but also from global issues beyond the control of project parties, such as commercial, legal and political risks. Therefore, the principal parties involved must manage risks effectively and efficiently, as early as the project initiation stage, in order to ensure a successful delivery. The aim of this paper is to examine the risk identification process of the NHS PFI hospital in the UK, as a case study, in order to determine the techniques used in risk identification, and their significance, based on estimated probabilities of occurrence. These objectives were achieved through interviews with key personnel within the NHS Trust involved. Results found the sole technique used in risk identification to be brainstorming, through which more than thirty risks were identified and classified under six risk categories: planning, pre-commissioning, design, land purchasing, construction and operation. Thirteen risks were identified as significant based on their estimated probability of occurrence had the project been developed via public procurement. The results of this research will enable public sector clients like the NHS Trust to not only identify the significant risks, which will allow them to focus more attention on developing appropriate mitigation strategies and contingency plans, but also to improve its risk identification process through the use of other techniques in order to support findings from the brainstorming process.

  1. Risk Determination in Projects. The Advantages and Disadvantages of Stochastic Methods

    Leonard Lepadatu


    Full Text Available This paper is a comparative study about the principal stochastic methods that is used in Project Management. Risk determination is a mustfor every Project Manager worldwide, but the methods have, of course, advantages and disadvantages. Further, many Project Managers work withdeterministic methods, but they see only the advantages or disadvantages of those methods. In Subject of this paper it is Risk determination inprojects. The advantages and disadvantages of stochastic methods. Choosing the theme of this paper is not randomly, it continues a series of articlespublished for strengthen of scientific research in the Doctorate studies that I followed since 2005.

  2. Food for thought: Overconfidence in model projections

    Brander, Keith; Neuheimer, Anna; Andersen, Ken Haste


    There is considerable public and political interest in the state of marine ecosystems and fisheries, but the reliability of some recent projections has been called into question. New information about declining fish stocks, loss of biodiversity, climate impacts, and management failure is frequently...

  3. Rapid Energy Modeling Workflow Demonstration Project


    CONTACT Point of Contact Organization Phone E-Mail Role In Project John Sullivan Autodesk, Inc. 111 McInnis Parkway San Rafael, CA 94903...McInnis Parkway San Rafael, CA 94903 Phone: 703-827-7213 E-Mail: Collaborator Mark Frost Autodesk, Inc. 111 McInnis

  4. Does risk management contribute to IT project success? A meta-analysis of empirical evidence

    de Bakker, K.F.C.; Boonstra, A.; Wortmann, J.C.


    The question whether risk management contributes to IT project success is considered relevant by people from both academic and practitioners' communities already for a long time. This paper presents a meta-analysis of the empirical evidence that either supports or opposes the claim that risk managem

  5. Observational studies in South African mines to mitigate seismic risks: a mid-project progress report

    Durrheim, RJ


    Full Text Available Mining-induced earthquakes pose a risk to workers in deep mines, while natural earthquakes pose a risk to people living close to plate boundaries and even in stable continental regions. A 5-year Japan-SA collaborative project "Observational studies...

  6. Review of the independent risk assessment of the proposed Cabrillo liquified natural gas deepwater port project.

    Gritzo, Louis Alan; Hightower, Marion Michael; Covan, John Morgan; Luketa-Hanlin, Anay Josephine


    In March 2005, the United States Coast Guard requested that Sandia National Laboratories provide a technical review and evaluation of the appropriateness and completeness of models, assumptions, analyses, and risk management options presented in the Cabrillo Port LNG Deepwater Port Independent Risk Assessment-Revision 1 (Cabrillo Port IRA). The goal of Sandia's technical evaluation of the Cabrillo Port IRA was to assist the Coast Guard in ensuring that the hazards to the public and property from a potential LNG spill during transfer, storage, and regasification operations were appropriately evaluated and estimated. Sandia was asked to review and evaluate the Cabrillo Port IRA results relative to the risk and safety analysis framework developed in the recent Sandia report, ''Guidance on Risk Analysis and Safety Implications of a Large Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) Spill over Water''. That report provides a framework for assessing hazards and identifying approaches to minimize the consequences to people and property from an LNG spill over water. This report summarizes the results of the Sandia review of the Cabrillo Port IRA and supporting analyses. Based on our initial review, additional threat and hazard analyses, consequence modeling, and process safety considerations were suggested. The additional analyses recommended were conducted by the Cabrillo Port IRA authors in cooperation with Sandia and a technical review panel composed of representatives from the Coast Guard and the California State Lands Commission. The results from the additional analyses improved the understanding and confidence in the potential hazards and consequences to people and property from the proposed Cabrillo Port LNG Deepwater Port Project. The results of the Sandia review, the additional analyses and evaluations conducted, and the resolutions of suggested changes for inclusion in a final Cabrillo Port IRA are summarized in this report.

  7. Landslide risk models for decision making.

    Bonachea, Jaime; Remondo, Juan; de Terán, José Ramón Díaz; González-Díez, Alberto; Cendrero, Antonio


    This contribution presents a quantitative procedure for landslide risk analysis and zoning considering hazard, exposure (or value of elements at risk), and vulnerability. The method provides the means to obtain landslide risk models (expressing expected damage due to landslides on material elements and economic activities in monetary terms, according to different scenarios and periods) useful to identify areas where mitigation efforts will be most cost effective. It allows identifying priority areas for the implementation of actions to reduce vulnerability (elements) or hazard (processes). The procedure proposed can also be used as a preventive tool, through its application to strategic environmental impact analysis (SEIA) of land-use plans. The underlying hypothesis is that reliable predictions about hazard and risk can be made using models based on a detailed analysis of past landslide occurrences in connection with conditioning factors and data on past damage. The results show that the approach proposed and the hypothesis formulated are essentially correct, providing estimates of the order of magnitude of expected losses for a given time period. Uncertainties, strengths, and shortcomings of the procedure and results obtained are discussed and potential lines of research to improve the models are indicated. Finally, comments and suggestions are provided to generalize this type of analysis.

  8. Risk management model in road transport systems

    Sakhapov, R. L.; Nikolaeva, R. V.; Gatiyatullin, M. H.; Makhmutov, M. M.


    The article presents the results of a study of road safety indicators that influence the development and operation of the transport system. Road safety is considered as a continuous process of risk management. Authors constructed a model that relates the social risks of a major road safety indicator - the level of motorization. The model gives a fairly accurate assessment of the level of social risk for any given level of motorization. Authors calculated the dependence of the level of socio-economic costs of accidents and injured people in them. The applicability of the concept of socio-economic damage is caused by the presence of a linear relationship between the natural and economic indicators damage from accidents. The optimization of social risk is reduced to finding the extremum of the objective function that characterizes the economic effect of the implementation of measures to improve safety. The calculations make it possible to maximize the net present value, depending on the costs of improving road safety, taking into account socio-economic damage caused by accidents. The proposed econometric models make it possible to quantify the efficiency of the transportation system, allow to simulate the change in road safety indicators.

  9. Mathematical modelling of risk reduction in reinsurance

    Balashov, R. B.; Kryanev, A. V.; Sliva, D. E.


    The paper presents a mathematical model of efficient portfolio formation in the reinsurance markets. The presented approach provides the optimal ratio between the expected value of return and the risk of yield values below a certain level. The uncertainty in the return values is conditioned by use of expert evaluations and preliminary calculations, which result in expected return values and the corresponding risk levels. The proposed method allows for implementation of computationally simple schemes and algorithms for numerical calculation of the numerical structure of the efficient portfolios of reinsurance contracts of a given insurance company.

  10. Public sector risk management: a specific model.

    Lawlor, Ted


    Risk management programs for state mental health authorities are generally limited in scope and reactive in nature. Recent changes in how mental health care is provided render it necessary to redirect the risk management focus from its present institutional basis to a statewide, network-based paradigm that is integrated across public and private inpatient and community programs alike. These changes include treating an increasing number of individuals in less-secure settings and contracting for an increasing number of public mental health services with private providers. The model proposed here is closely linked to the Quality Management Process.

  11. Permafrost degradation risk zone assessment using simulation models

    R. P. Daanen


    Full Text Available In this proof-of-concept study we focus on linking large scale climate and permafrost simulations to small scale engineering projects by bridging the gap between climate and permafrost sciences on the one hand and on the other technical recommendation for adaptation of planned infrastructures to climate change in a region generally underlain by permafrost. We present the current and future state of permafrost in Greenland as modelled numerically with the GIPL model driven by HIRHAM climate projections up to 2080. We develop a concept called Permafrost Thaw Potential (PTP, defined as the potential active layer increase due to climate warming and surface alterations. PTP is then used in a simple risk assessment procedure useful for engineering applications. The modelling shows that climate warming will result in continuing wide-spread permafrost warming and degradation in Greenland, in agreement with present observations. We provide examples of application of the risk zone assessment approach for the two towns of Sisimiut and Ilulissat, both classified with high PTP.


    Sathaye, Jayant


    ABSTRACT This report outlines the results of a study of the impact of climate change on the energy infrastructure of California and the San Francisco Bay region, including impacts on power plant generation; transmission line and substation capacity during heat spells; wildfires near transmission lines; sea level encroachment upon power plants, substations, and natural gas facilities; and peak electrical demand. Some end-of-century impacts were projected: Expected warming will decrease gas-fir...

  13. Multilevel modelling of mechanical properties of textile composites: ITOOL Project

    Van Den Broucke, Bjorn; Drechsler, Klaus; Hanisch, Vera; Hartung, Daniel; Ivanov, Dimitry S.; Koissin, Vitaly E.; Lomov, Stepan V.; Middendorf, Peter


    The paper presents an overview of the multi-level modelling of textile composites in the ITOOL project, focusing on the models of textile reinforcements, which serve as a basis for micromechanical models of textile composites on the unit cell level. The modelling is performed using finite element an

  14. Forecasting project schedule performance using probabilistic and deterministic models

    S.A. Abdel Azeem


    Full Text Available Earned value management (EVM was originally developed for cost management and has not widely been used for forecasting project duration. In addition, EVM based formulas for cost or schedule forecasting are still deterministic and do not provide any information about the range of possible outcomes and the probability of meeting the project objectives. The objective of this paper is to develop three models to forecast the estimated duration at completion. Two of these models are deterministic; earned value (EV and earned schedule (ES models. The third model is a probabilistic model and developed based on Kalman filter algorithm and earned schedule management. Hence, the accuracies of the EV, ES and Kalman Filter Forecasting Model (KFFM through the different project periods will be assessed and compared with the other forecasting methods such as the Critical Path Method (CPM, which makes the time forecast at activity level by revising the actual reporting data for each activity at a certain data date. A case study project is used to validate the results of the three models. Hence, the best model is selected based on the lowest average percentage of error. The results showed that the KFFM developed in this study provides probabilistic prediction bounds of project duration at completion and can be applied through the different project periods with smaller errors than those observed in EV and ES forecasting models.

  15. Risk Analysis an Approach for Safety-related Projects at CERN

    Balda, F


    In recent years Risk Analysis has become increasingly important for any kind of project for both personnel and equipment safety assessments. Many divisional projects must respect the rules imposed by the French regulatory authority (INB) and the requirements of applicable international standards. This document proposes a systematic approach for the setting up of a complete Risk Analysis, and it defines coherent steps to be undertaken in order to check the achievement of the project safety goals. Several techniques are discussed, and some ST projects to which they have been applied or are going to be applied are presented. The proposed Risk Analysis structure should be associated and adapted to the different stages of the design and allows the definition of safety requirements; it furthermore traces the guidelines for qualitative and quantitative assessments.


    Mario Manzini Cianfanelli


    Full Text Available This study uses a risk management perspective to analyze compliance costs arising from overlapping service tax (ST jurisdictions. We study the case of an engineering company providing services to the Companhia de Saneamento Básico do Estado de São Paulo [São Paulo State Sanitation Company] – SABESP, a public entity. The engineering company was contracted under public law 8.666/93, to provide engineering service in several townships in São Paulo’s metropolitan area. Because the laws governing bidding do not permit later modification in price or provider, subsequent double taxation by one municipality cut into the firm’s margins, and should other local governments follow suit, multiple taxation would render the contract untenable for the provider. Our paper models the impact of conflicting jurisdictions on administrative burden, psychological costs and profit constriction and discusses project management techniques for decision making and management in similar situations.

  17. Probability-weighted ensembles of U.S. county-level climate projections for climate risk analysis

    Rasmussen, D J; Kopp, Robert E


    Quantitative assessment of climate change risk requires a method for constructing probabilistic time series of changes in physical climate parameters. Here, we develop two such methods, Surrogate/Model Mixed Ensemble (SMME) and Monte Carlo Pattern/Residual (MCPR), and apply them to construct joint probability density functions (PDFs) of temperature and precipitation change over the 21st century for every county in the United States. Both methods produce $likely$ (67% probability) temperature and precipitation projections consistent with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's interpretation of an equal-weighted Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) ensemble, but also provide full PDFs that include tail estimates. For example, both methods indicate that, under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5, there is a 5% chance that the contiguous United States could warm by at least 8$^\\circ$C. Variance decomposition of SMME and MCPR projections indicate that background variability dominates...

  18. Highlight report: Launch of a large integrated European in vitro toxicology project: EU-ToxRisk.

    Daneshian, Mardas; Kamp, Hennicke; Hengstler, Jan; Leist, Marcel; van de Water, Bob


    The integrated European project, EU-ToxRisk, proudly sees itself as "flagship" exploring new alternative-to-animal approaches to chemical safety evaluation. It promotes mechanism-based toxicity testing and risk assessment according to the principles laid down for toxicology for the twenty-first century. The project was officially launched in January 2016 with a kickoff meeting in Egmond aan Zee, the Netherlands. Over 100 scientists representing academia and industry as well as regulatory authorities attended the inaugural meeting. The project will integrate advances in in vitro and in silico toxicology, read-across methods, and adverse outcome pathways. EU-ToxRisk will continue to make use of the case study strategy deployed in SEURAT-1, a FP7 initiative ended in December 2015. Even though the development of new non-animal methods is one target of EU-ToxRisk, the project puts special emphasis on their acceptance and implementation in regulatory contexts. This €30 million Horizon 2020 project involves 38 European partners and one from the USA. EU-ToxRisk aims at the "development of a new way of risk assessment."

  19. Investment Decision Support for Engineering Projects Based on Risk Correlation Analysis

    Yan Liu


    Full Text Available Investment decisions are usually made on the basis of the subjective judgments of experts subjected to the information gap during the preliminary stages of a project. As a consequence, a series of errors in risk prediction and/or decision-making will be generated leading to out of control investment and project failure. In this paper, the variable fuzzy set theory and intelligent algorithms integrated with case-based reasoning are presented. The proposed algorithm manages the numerous fuzzy concepts and variable factors of a project and also sets up the decision-making process in accordance with past cases and experiences. Furthermore, it decreases the calculation difficulty and reduces the decision-making reaction time. Three types of risk correlations combined with different characteristics of engineering projects are summarized, and each of these correlations is expounded at the project investment decision-making stage. Quantitative and qualitative change theories of variable fuzzy sets are also addressed for investment risk warning. The approach presented in this paper enables the risk analysis in a simple and intuitive manner and realizes the integration of objective and subjective risk assessments within the decision-makers' risk expectation.

  20. Crop insurance: Risks and models of insurance

    Čolović Vladimir


    Full Text Available The issue of crop protection is very important because of a variety of risks that could cause difficult consequences. One type of risk protection is insurance. The author in the paper states various models of insurance in some EU countries and the systems of subsidizing of insurance premiums by state. The author also gives a picture of crop insurance in the U.S., noting that in this country pays great attention to this matter. As for crop insurance in Serbia, it is not at a high level. The main problem with crop insurance is not only the risks but also the way of protection through insurance. The basic question that arises not only in the EU is the question is who will insure and protect crops. There are three possibilities: insurance companies under state control, insurance companies that are public-private partnerships or private insurance companies on a purely commercial basis.