Excipient Usage Technical Risk Assessment for Generic Solid Dose Products

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ajay Babu Pazhayattil

2017-09-01

Full Text Available This paper proposes an assessment methodology for solid dose generic small molecule drug products. It addresses the ‘usage of the excipient’ portion of the trinomial by utilizing the systematic approach of Risk Identification, Risk Analysis and Risk Evaluation as per ICH Q9 Quality Risk Management outlined for developing risk control strategies. The assessment and maintenance of excipient risk profile is essential to minimize any potential risk associated to excipients impacting patients.

Accuracy of non-fasting lipid profile for the assessment of lipoprotein coronary risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fatima, S.; Ijaz, A.; Sharif, T.; Khan, D.A.; Siddique, A.

2016-01-01

.004) for the assessment of lipoprotein coronary risk on the basis of non-HDL-C, which seemed to be significant test for ruling out hyperlipidemia. (author)

Cumulative socioeconomic status risk, allostatic load, and adjustment: a prospective latent profile analysis with contextual and genetic protective factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Brody, Gene H; Yu, Tianyi; Chen, Yi-fu; Kogan, Steven M; Evans, Gary W; Beach, Steven R H; Windle, Michael; Simons, Ronald L; Gerrard, Meg; Gibbons, Frederick X; Philibert, Robert A

2013-05-01

The health disparities literature has identified a common pattern among middle-aged African Americans that includes high rates of chronic disease along with low rates of psychiatric disorders despite exposure to high levels of cumulative socioeconomic status (SES) risk. The current study was designed to test hypotheses about the developmental precursors to this pattern. Hypotheses were tested with a representative sample of 443 African American youths living in the rural South. Cumulative SES risk and protective processes were assessed at ages 11-13 years; psychological adjustment was assessed at ages 14-18 years; genotyping at the 5-HTTLPR was conducted at age 16 years; and allostatic load (AL) was assessed at age 19 years. A latent profile analysis identified 5 profiles that evinced distinct patterns of SES risk, AL, and psychological adjustment, with 2 relatively large profiles designated as focal profiles: a physical health vulnerability profile characterized by high SES risk/high AL/low adjustment problems, and a resilient profile characterized by high SES risk/low AL/low adjustment problems. The physical health vulnerability profile mirrored the pattern found in the adult health disparities literature. Multinomial logistic regression analyses indicated that carrying an s allele at the 5-HTTLPR and receiving less peer support distinguished the physical health vulnerability profile from the resilient profile. Protective parenting and planful self-regulation distinguished both focal profiles from the other 3 profiles. The results suggest the public health importance of preventive interventions that enhance coping and reduce the effects of stress across childhood and adolescence.

The Reliability and Predictive Validity of the Stalking Risk Profile.

Science.gov (United States)

McEwan, Troy E; Shea, Daniel E; Daffern, Michael; MacKenzie, Rachel D; Ogloff, James R P; Mullen, Paul E

2018-03-01

This study assessed the reliability and validity of the Stalking Risk Profile (SRP), a structured measure for assessing stalking risks. The SRP was administered at the point of assessment or retrospectively from file review for 241 adult stalkers (91% male) referred to a community-based forensic mental health service. Interrater reliability was high for stalker type, and moderate-to-substantial for risk judgments and domain scores. Evidence for predictive validity and discrimination between stalking recidivists and nonrecidivists for risk judgments depended on follow-up duration. Discrimination was moderate (area under the curve = 0.66-0.68) and positive and negative predictive values good over the full follow-up period ( Mdn = 170.43 weeks). At 6 months, discrimination was better than chance only for judgments related to stalking of new victims (area under the curve = 0.75); however, high-risk stalkers still reoffended against their original victim(s) 2 to 4 times as often as low-risk stalkers. Implications for the clinical utility and refinement of the SRP are discussed.

Assessing personality risks using the Surps for alcohol and other ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Assessing personality risks using the Surps for alcohol and other drug problems in Cape Town, South Africa. ... African Journal of Drug and Alcohol Studies ... In this crosssectional study, the Substance Use Risk Profile Scale (SURPS) was applied to measure these traits and assess the questionnaire's reliability from a ...

Bank Risk Profile, Good Corporate Governance And Company Values in Banking Companies Go Public in Indonesia

OpenAIRE

Susi Retna Cahyaningtyas; Elin Erlina Sasanti; Wahidatul Husnaini

2017-01-01

The latest Bank Indonesia Regulation No.14/18/PBI/2012 requires bank to have minimum capital of 8%-14% depends on the risk profile of each bank. Therefore, the main objective of this research is to assess whether the total of inherent risk profile of each bank meets the terms of this regulation. In addition, this study aims to examine the impact of inherent risk profile and GCG on the banking company value. The sample in this study is determined by purposive sampling method and resulted in 24...

Advancing environmental risk assessment for transgenic biofeedstock crops

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wolt Jeffrey D

2009-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Transgenic modification of plants is a key enabling technology for developing sustainable biofeedstocks for biofuels production. Regulatory decisions and the wider acceptance and development of transgenic biofeedstock crops are considered from the context of science-based risk assessment. The risk assessment paradigm for transgenic biofeedstock crops is fundamentally no different from that of current generation transgenic crops, except that the focus of the assessment must consider the unique attributes of a given biofeedstock crop and its environmental release. For currently envisioned biofeedstock crops, particular emphasis in risk assessment will be given to characterization of altered metabolic profiles and their implications relative to non-target environmental effects and food safety; weediness and invasiveness when plants are modified for abiotic stress tolerance or are domesticated; and aggregate risk when plants are platforms for multi-product production. Robust risk assessments for transgenic biofeedstock crops are case-specific, initiated through problem formulation, and use tiered approaches for risk characterization.

A risk microbiological profile of the Australian red meat industry: risk ratings of hazard-product pairings.

Science.gov (United States)

Sumner, John; Ross, Tom; Jenson, Ian; Pointon, Andrew

2005-11-25

A risk profile of microbial hazards across the supply continuum for the beef, sheep and goat meat industries was developed using both a qualitative tool and a semi-quantitative, spreadsheet tool, Risk Ranger. The latter is useful for highlighting factors contributing to food safety risk and for ranking the risk of various product/pathogen combinations. In the present profile the qualitative tool was used as a preliminary screen for a wide range of hazard-product pairings while Risk Ranger was used to rank in order of population health risk pairings for which quantitative data were available and for assessing the effect of hypothetical scenarios. 'High' risk hazard-product pairings identified were meals contaminated with Clostridium perfringens provided by caterers which have not implemented HACCP; kebabs cross-contaminated by Salmonella present in drip trays or served undercooked; meals served in the home cross-contaminated with Salmonella. 'Medium' risk hazard-product pairings identified were ready-to-eat meats contaminated with Listeria monocytogenes and which have extended shelf life; Uncooked Comminuted Fermented Meat (UCFM)/Salami contaminated with Enterohaemorrhagic E. coli (EHEC) and Salmonella; undercooked hamburgers contaminated with EHEC; kebabs contaminated by Salmonella under normal production or following final "flash" heating. Identified 'low' risk hazard-product pairings included cooked, ready-to-eat sausages contaminated with Salmonella; UCFM/Salami contaminated with L. monocytogenes; well-cooked hamburgers contaminated with EHEC. The risk profile provides information of value to Australia's risk managers in the regulatory, processing and R&D sectors of the meat and meat processing industry for the purposes of identifying food safety risks in the industry and for prioritising risk management actions.

A comparative analysis of cardiovascular disease risk profiles of five Pacific ethnic groups assessed in New Zealand primary care practice: PREDICT CVD-13.

Science.gov (United States)

Grey, Corina; Wells, Sue; Riddell, Tania; Pylypchuk, Romana; Marshall, Roger; Drury, Paul; Elley, Raina; Ameratunga, Shanthi; Gentles, Dudley; Erick-Peletiy, Stephanie; Bell, Fionna; Kerr, Andrew; Jackson, Rod

2010-11-05

Data on the cardiovascular disease risk profiles of Pacific peoples in New Zealand is usually aggregated and treated as a single entity. Little is known about the comparability or otherwise of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk between different Pacific groups. To compare CVD risk profiles for the main Pacific ethnic groups assessed in New Zealand primary care practice to determine if it is reasonable to aggregate these data, or if significant differences exist. A web-based clinical decision support system for CVD risk assessment and management (PREDICT) has been implemented in primary care practices in nine PHOs throughout Auckland and Northland since 2002, covering approximately 65% of the population of these regions. Between 2002 and January 2009, baseline CVD risk assessments were carried out on 11,642 patients aged 35-74 years identifying with one or more Pacific ethnic groups (4933 Samoans, 1724 Tongans, 1366 Cook Island Maori, 880 Niueans, 1341 Fijians and 1398 people identified as Other Pacific or Pacific Not Further Defined). Fijians were subsequently excluded from the analyses because of a probable misclassification error that appears to combine Fijian Indians with ethnic Fijians. Prevalences of smoking, diabetes and prior history of CVD, as well as mean total cholesterol/HDL ratio, systolic and diastolic blood pressures, and Framingham 5-year CVD risk were calculated for each Pacific group. Age-adjusted risk ratios and mean differences stratified by gender were calculated using Samoans as the reference group. Cook Island women were almost 60% more likely to smoke than Samoan women. While Tongan men had the highest proportion of smoking (29%) among Pacific men, Tongan women had the lowest smoking proportion (10%) among Pacific women. Tongan women and Niuean men and women had a higher burden of diabetes than other Pacific ethnic groups, which were 20-30% higher than their Samoan counterparts. Niuean men and women had lower blood pressure levels than all

Validation of an age-modified caries risk assessment program (Cariogram) in preschool children

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Holgerson, Pernilla Lif; Twetman, Svante; Stecksèn-Blicks, Christina

2009-01-01

OBJECTIVES: (i) To validate caries risk profiles assessed with a computer program against actual caries development in preschool children, (ii) to study the possible impact of a preventive program on the risk profiles, and (iii) to compare the individual risk profiles longitudinally. MATERIAL...... of sugar. The majority of the children who changed category displayed a lowered risk at 7 years. The intervention program seemed to impair the predictive abilities of Cariogram. CONCLUSION: A modified Cariogram applied on preschool children was not particularly useful in identifying high caries risk...

Risk assessment of girls: are there any sex differences in risk factors for reoffending and in risk profiles?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van der Put, C.E.; Deković, M.; Hoeve, M.; Stams, G.J.J.M.; van der Laan, P.H.; Langewouters, F.E.M.

2014-01-01

The aims of this study were (a) to investigate sex differences in risk factors for re-offending and (b) to provide a risk assessment model for girls. The data of 1,396 adolescents who committed a criminal offense were examined. Both generic and sex-specific risk factors for re-offending were found.

Multi-hazard national-level risk assessment in Africa using global approaches

Science.gov (United States)

Fraser, Stuart; Jongman, Brenden; Simpson, Alanna; Murnane, Richard

2016-04-01

In recent years Sub-Saharan Africa has been characterized by unprecedented opportunity for transformation and sustained growth. However, natural disasters such as droughts, floods, cyclones, earthquakes, landslides, volcanic eruptions and extreme temperatures cause significant economic and human losses, and major development challenges. Quantitative disaster risk assessments are an important basis for governments to understand disaster risk in their country, and to develop effective risk management and risk financing solutions. However, the data-scarce nature of many Sub-Saharan African countries as well as a lack of financing for risk assessments has long prevented detailed analytics. Recent advances in globally applicable disaster risk modelling practices and data availability offer new opportunities. In December 2013 the European Union approved a € 60 million contribution to support the development of an analytical basis for risk financing and to accelerate the effective implementation of a comprehensive disaster risk reduction. The World Bank's Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) was selected as the implementing partner of the Program for Result Area 5: the "Africa Disaster Risk Assessment and Financing Program." As part of this effort, the GFDRR is overseeing the production of national-level multi-hazard risk profiles for a range of countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, using a combination of national and global datasets and state-of-the-art hazard and risk assessment methodologies. In this presentation, we will highlight the analytical approach behind these assessments, and show results for the first five countries for which the assessment has been completed (Kenya, Uganda, Senegal, Niger and Ethiopia). The presentation will also demonstrate the visualization of the risk assessments into understandable and visually attractive risk profile documents.

Bank Risk Profile, Good Corporate Governance And Company Values in Banking Companies Go Public in Indonesia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Susi Retna Cahyaningtyas

2017-06-01

Full Text Available The latest Bank Indonesia Regulation No.14/18/PBI/2012 requires bank to have minimum capital of 8%-14% depends on the risk profile of each bank. Therefore, the main objective of this research is to assess whether the total of inherent risk profile of each bank meets the terms of this regulation. In addition, this study aims to examine the impact of inherent risk profile and GCG on the banking company value. The sample in this study is determined by purposive sampling method and resulted in 24 banks or 72 observations during 2011-2013. The results showed that 23 banks had low risk and low to moderate risk, and only one bank had moderate risk. The results also showed that inherent risk profile rating is equivalent to capital adequacy. In other words, inherent risk profile of these banks have complied with Bank Indonesia Regulation No.14/18/PBI/2012. Furthermore, this study indicated that GCG has significant and positive influence on the company value, while the inherent risk has no influence on the company value. Overall, this study suggest that go public banks in Indonesia are one of good alternative means of investment for its soundness as reflected by the fulfillment of minimum capital ratio required by the regulator.

Anxiety and Mood Clinical Profile following Sport-related Concussion: From Risk Factors to Treatment.

Science.gov (United States)

Sandel, Natalie; Reynolds, Erin; Cohen, Paul E; Gillie, Brandon L; Kontos, Anthony P

2017-08-01

Conceptual models for assessing and treating sport-related concussion (SRC) have evolved from a homogenous approach to include different clinical profiles that reflect the heterogeneous nature of this injury and its effects. There are six identified clinical profiles, or subtypes from SRC, and one such clinical profile is the anxiety/mood profile. Athletes with this profile experience predominant emotional disturbance and anxiety following SRC. The purpose of this targeted review was to present an overview of the empirical evidence to support factors contributing to the anxiety/mood profile, along with methods of evaluation and treatment of this clinical profile following SRC. We discuss the potential underlying mechanisms and risk factors for this clinical profile, describe comprehensive assessments to evaluate concussed athletes with an anxiety/mood clinical profile, and explore behavioral and other interventions for treating these athletes. Although there is limited, but growing empirical evidence for the anxiety/mood clinical profile following SRC, understanding this clinical profile is germane for clinicians who are treating athletes with emotional sequelae after SRC.

Challenges in Risk Assessment: Quantitative Risk Assessment

OpenAIRE

Jacxsens, Liesbeth; Uyttendaele, Mieke; De Meulenaer, Bruno

2016-01-01

The process of risk analysis consists out of three components, risk assessment, risk management and risk communication. These components are internationally well spread by Codex Alimentarius Commission as being the basis for setting science based standards, criteria on food safety hazards, e.g. setting maximum limits of mycotoxins in foodstuffs. However, the technical component risk assessment is hard to elaborate and to understand. Key in a risk assessment is the translation of biological or...

Individualized fracture risk assessment: State-of-the-art and room for improvement

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tuan V. Nguyen

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Fragility fracture is a serious clinical event, because it is associated with increased risk of mortality and reduced quality of life. The risk of fracture is determined by multiple risk factors, and their effects may be interactional. Over the past 10 years, a number of predictive models (e.g., FRAX, Garvan Fracture Risk Calculator, and Qfracture have been developed for individualized assessment of fracture risk. These models use different risk profiles to estimate the probability of fracture over 5- and 10-year period. The ability of these models to discriminate between those individuals who will and will not have a fracture (i.e., area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC] is generally acceptable-to-good (AUC, 0.6 to 0.8, and is highly variable between populations. The calibration of existing models is poor, particularly in Asian populations. There is a strong need for the development and validation of new prediction models based on Asian data for Asian populations. We propose approaches to improve the accuracy of existing predictive models by incorporating new markers such as genetic factors, bone turnover markers, trabecular bone score, and time-variant factors. New and more refined models for individualized fracture risk assessment will help identify those most likely to sustain a fracture, those most likely to benefit from treatment, and encouraging them to modify their risk profile to decrease risk. Keywords: Osteoporosis, Fracture, Fracture risk assessment, Genetic profiling, FRAX, Garvan

Screening for prenatal substance use: development of the Substance Use Risk Profile-Pregnancy scale.

Science.gov (United States)

Yonkers, Kimberly A; Gotman, Nathan; Kershaw, Trace; Forray, Ariadna; Howell, Heather B; Rounsaville, Bruce J

2010-10-01

To report on the development of a questionnaire to screen for hazardous substance use in pregnant women and to compare the performance of the questionnaire with other drug and alcohol measures. Pregnant women were administered a modified TWEAK (Tolerance, Worried, Eye-openers, Amnesia, K[C] Cut Down) questionnaire, the 4Ps Plus questionnaire, items from the Addiction Severity Index, and two questions about domestic violence (N=2,684). The sample was divided into "training" (n=1,610) and "validation" (n=1,074) subsamples. We applied recursive partitioning class analysis to the responses from individuals in the training subsample that resulted in a three-item Substance Use Risk Profile-Pregnancy scale. We examined sensitivity, specificity, and the fit of logistic regression models in the validation subsample to compare the performance of the Substance Use Risk Profile-Pregnancy scale with the modified TWEAK and various scoring algorithms of the 4Ps. The Substance Use Risk Profile-Pregnancy scale is comprised of three informative questions that can be scored for high- or low-risk populations. The Substance Use Risk Profile-Pregnancy scale algorithm for low-risk populations was mostly highly predictive of substance use in the validation subsample (Akaike's Information Criterion=579.75, Nagelkerke R=0.27) with high sensitivity (91%) and adequate specificity (67%). The high-risk algorithm had lower sensitivity (57%) but higher specificity (88%). The Substance Use Risk Profile-Pregnancy scale is simple and flexible with good sensitivity and specificity. The Substance Use Risk Profile-Pregnancy scale can potentially detect a range of substances that may be abused. Clinicians need to further assess women with a positive screen to identify those who require treatment for alcohol or illicit substance use in pregnancy. III.

Risk Assessment of Girls : Are There Any Sex Differences in Risk Factors for Re-offending and in Risk Profiles?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van der Put, Claudia E.; Dekovic, Maja; Hoeve, Machteld; Stams, Geert Jan J. M.; van der Laan, Peter H.; Langewouters, Femke E. M.

2014-01-01

The aims of this study were (a) to investigate sex differences in risk factors for re-offending and (b) to provide a risk assessment model for girls. The data of 1,396 adolescents who committed a criminal offense were examined. Both generic and sex-specific risk factors for re-offending were found.

Utilizing relative potency factors (RPF) and threshold of toxicological concern (TTC) concepts to assess hazard and human risk assessment profiles of environmental metabolites: a case study.

Science.gov (United States)

Terry, C; Rasoulpour, R J; Knowles, S; Billington, R

2015-03-01

There is currently no standard paradigm for hazard and human risk assessment of environmental metabolites for agrochemicals. Using an actual case study, solutions to challenges faced are described and used to propose a generic concept to address risk posed by metabolites to human safety. A novel approach - built on the foundation of predicted human exposures to metabolites in various compartments (such as food and water), the threshold of toxicological concern (TTC) and the concept of comparative toxicity - was developed for environmental metabolites of a new chemical, sulfoxaflor (X11422208). The ultimate aim was to address the human safety of the metabolites with the minimum number of in vivo studies, while at the same time, ensuring that human safety would be considered addressed on a global regulatory scale. The third component, comparative toxicity, was primarily designed to determine whether the metabolites had the same or similar toxicity profiles to their parent molecule, and also to one another. The ultimate goal was to establish whether the metabolites had the potential to cause key effects - such as cancer and developmental toxicity, based on mode-of-action (MoA) studies - and to develop a relative potency factor (RPF) compared to the parent molecule. Collectively, the work presented here describes the toxicology programme developed for sulfoxaflor and its metabolites, and how it might be used to address similar future challenges aimed at determining the relevance of the metabolites from a human hazard and risk perspective. Sulfoxaflor produced eight environmental metabolites at varying concentrations in various compartments - soil, water, crops and livestock. The MoA for the primary effects of the parent molecule were elucidated in detail and a series of in silico, in vitro, and/or in vivo experiments were conducted on the environmental metabolites to assess relative potency of their toxicity profiles when compared to the parent. The primary metabolite

Hypoadiponectinemia in overweight children contributes to a negative metabolic risk profile 6 years later

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kynde, Iben; Heitmann, Berit L; Bygbjerg, Ib C

2009-01-01

follow-up data 6 years later (n = 169). Cardiometabolic risk profile was calculated using a continuous composite score derived from summing of 6 factors standardized to the sample means (Z scores): body mass index, homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance, total serum cholesterol to serum high...... adiponectin at baseline was inversely associated with metabolic risk score 6 years later (P = .04). In childhood, both hypoadiponectinemia and hyperleptinemia accompany a negative metabolic risk profile. In addition, circulating plasma adiponectin may be a useful biomarker to identify overweight children......Prognostic biomarkers are needed to identify children at increased cardiometabolic risk. The objective was to study whether markers of metabolism and inflammation, for example, circulating plasma adiponectin, leptin, interleukin-8, and hepatocyte growth factor, are associated with cardiometabolic...

Caries-risk profiles in Italian adults using computer caries assessment system and ICDAS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Giovanna CARTA

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The aim of this study was to examine the correlation among socio-behavioral factors, caries status and caries risk, calculated through Cariogram, in an adult population. Four hundred eighty subjects (mean age 40.73, SE ± 0.33 randomly selected from the municipal electoral registry consented to participate in the survey. Subjects were examined, and the International Caries Detection Assessment System (ICDAS index was registered. A highly structured questionnaire was submitted to investigate (1 personal data (i.e., age, gender, educational level, job categorization, (2 life-style behavior (i.e., smoking and dietary habits, and (3 oral health behavior (i.e., tooth brushing, use of fluoride and dental check-up frequency. An evaluation of the mutans streptococci concentration in saliva was also performed. Information on caries-related factors was entered into the Cariogram in order to generate an individual caries risk profile for each subject. Multinomial logistic regression was performed using Cariogram levels as the dependent variable. The possible correlated variables were analyzed using the principal component analysis (PCA. Considering ICDAS scores, 5.62% of the sample had at least an initial decay (ICDAS = 1-2, whereas 40.83% of the sample presented at least one moderate decay (ICDAS = 3-4 and 17.08% a severe decay (ICDAS = 5-6. Decay at ICDAS levels 5-6 and more than 5 missing teeth were statistically associated with Cariogram scores (OR = 2.36, 95%CI = 1.83–3.03 and OR = 1.43, 95%CI = 1.13–1.82, respectively. The results suggest that the Cariogram model was able to identify caries-related factors in an adult population. A direct association among the risk categories from Cariogram, the caries status and some socio-behavioral variables was verified.

Bicycling to school improves the cardiometabolic risk factor profile

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ostergaard, Lars; Børrestad, Line A B; Tarp, Jakob

2012-01-01

To investigate whether bicycling to school improves cardiometabolic risk factor profile and cardiorespiratory fitness among children.......To investigate whether bicycling to school improves cardiometabolic risk factor profile and cardiorespiratory fitness among children....

Probabilistic risk assessment methodology for risk management and regulatory applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

See Meng Wong; Kelly, D.L.; Riley, J.E.

1997-01-01

This paper discusses the development and potential applications of PRA methodology for risk management and regulatory applications in the U.S. nuclear industry. The new PRA methodology centers on the development of This paper discusses the time-dependent configuration risk profile for evaluating the effectiveness of operational risk management programs at U.S. nuclear power plants. Configuration-risk profiles have been used as risk-information tools for (1) a better understanding of the impact of daily operational activities on plant safety, and (2) proactive planning of operational activities to manage risk. Trial applications of the methodology were undertaken to demonstrate that configuration-risk profiles can be developed routinely, and can be useful for various industry and regulatory applications. Lessons learned include a better understanding of the issues and characteristics of PRA models available to industry, and identifying the attributes and pitfalls in the developement of risk profiles

Professional assessment of facial profile attractiveness.

Science.gov (United States)

Soh, Jen; Chew, Ming Tak; Wong, Hwee Bee

2005-08-01

The aim of this study was to compare the assessments of Chinese facial profile attractiveness by orthodontists and oral surgeons. The sample comprised 31 dental professionals (20 orthodontists, 11 oral surgeons) in an Asian community. Facial profile photographs and lateral cephalometric radiographs of 2 Chinese adults (1 man, 1 woman) with normal profiles, Class I incisor relationships, and Class I skeletal patterns were digitized. The digital images were modified by altering cephalometric skeletal and dental hard tissue Chinese normative values in increments of 2 standard deviations in the anteroposterior plane to obtain 7 facial profiles for each sex. The images were bimaxillary protrusion, protrusive mandible, retrusive mandible, normal profile (Class I incisor with Class I skeletal pattern), retrusive maxilla, protrusive maxilla, and bimaxillary retrusion. The Mann-Whitney U test was used to determine professional differences in assessment. Multiple regression analysis was performed with age, professional status, sex, and number of years in practice as independent variables. A strong correlation was found in the profile assessment between orthodontists and oral surgeons. Normal and bimaxillary retrusive Chinese male and female profiles were judged to be highly attractive by orthodontists and oral surgeons. Chinese male and female profiles with protrusive mandibles were judged the least attractive. There was a difference in professional opinion about the most attractive male profile (P profile and oral surgeons preferring a fuller normal Chinese profile. Sex of dental professionals and number of years in clinical practice were found to affect profile rankings.

Lipid profile, cardiovascular disease and mortality in a Mediterranean high-risk population: The ESCARVAL-RISK study.

Science.gov (United States)

Orozco-Beltran, Domingo; Gil-Guillen, Vicente F; Redon, Josep; Martin-Moreno, Jose M; Pallares-Carratala, Vicente; Navarro-Perez, Jorge; Valls-Roca, Francisco; Sanchis-Domenech, Carlos; Fernandez-Gimenez, Antonio; Perez-Navarro, Ana; Bertomeu-Martinez, Vicente; Bertomeu-Gonzalez, Vicente; Cordero, Alberto; Pascual de la Torre, Manuel; Trillo, Jose L; Carratala-Munuera, Concepcion; Pita-Fernandez, Salvador; Uso, Ruth; Durazo-Arvizu, Ramon; Cooper, Richard; Sanz, Gines; Castellano, Jose M; Ascaso, Juan F; Carmena, Rafael; Tellez-Plaza, Maria

2017-01-01

The potential impact of targeting different components of an adverse lipid profile in populations with multiple cardiovascular risk factors is not completely clear. This study aims to assess the association between different components of the standard lipid profile with all-cause mortality and hospitalization due to cardiovascular events in a high-risk population. This prospective registry included high risk adults over 30 years old free of cardiovascular disease (2008-2012). Diagnosis of hypertension, dyslipidemia or diabetes mellitus was inclusion criterion. Lipid biomarkers were evaluated. Primary endpoints were all-cause mortality and hospital admission due to coronary heart disease or stroke. We estimated adjusted rate ratios (aRR), absolute risk differences and population attributable risk associated with adverse lipid profiles. 51,462 subjects were included with a mean age of 62.6 years (47.6% men). During an average follow-up of 3.2 years, 919 deaths, 1666 hospitalizations for coronary heart disease and 1510 hospitalizations for stroke were recorded. The parameters that showed an increased rate for total mortality, coronary heart disease and stroke hospitalization were, respectively, low HDL-Cholesterol: aRR 1.25, 1.29 and 1.23; high Total/HDL-Cholesterol: aRR 1.22, 1.38 and 1.25; and high Triglycerides/HDL-Cholesterol: aRR 1.21, 1.30, 1.09. The parameters that showed highest population attributable risk (%) were, respectively, low HDL-Cholesterol: 7.70, 11.42, 8.40; high Total/HDL-Cholesterol: 6.55, 12.47, 8.73; and high Triglycerides/HDL-Cholesterol: 8.94, 15.09, 6.92. In a population with cardiovascular risk factors, HDL-cholesterol, Total/HDL-cholesterol and triglycerides/HDL-cholesterol ratios were associated with a higher population attributable risk for cardiovascular disease compared to other common biomarkers.

Discrepancies between multicriteria decision analysis-based ranking and intuitive ranking for pharmaceutical benefit-risk profiles in a hypothetical setting.

Science.gov (United States)

Hoshikawa, K; Ono, S

2017-02-01

Multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) has been generally considered a promising decision-making methodology for the assessment of drug benefit-risk profiles. There have been many discussions in both public and private sectors on its feasibility and applicability, but it has not been employed in official decision-makings. For the purpose of examining to what extent MCDA would reflect the first-hand, intuitive preference of evaluators in practical pharmaceutical assessments, we conducted a questionnaire survey involving the participation of employees of pharmaceutical companies. Showing profiles of the efficacy and safety of four hypothetical drugs, each respondent was asked to rank them following the standard MCDA process and then to rank them intuitively (i.e. without applying any analytical framework). These two approaches resulted in substantially different ranking patterns from the same individuals, and the concordance rate was surprisingly low (17%). Although many respondents intuitively showed a preference for mild, balanced risk-benefit profiles over profiles with a conspicuous advantage in either risk or benefit, the ranking orders based on MCDA scores did not reflect the intuitive preference. Observed discrepancies between the rankings seemed to be primarily attributed to the structural characteristics of MCDA, which assumes that evaluation on each benefit and risk component should have monotonic impact on final scores. It would be difficult for MCDA to reflect commonly observed non-monotonic preferences for risk and benefit profiles. Possible drawbacks of MCDA should be further investigated prior to the real-world application of its benefit-risk assessment. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Bleeding Risk Profile in Patients With Symptomatic Peripheral Artery Disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Baumann, Frederic; Husmann, Marc; Benenati, James F; Katzen, Barry T; Del Conde, Ian

2016-06-01

To assess the bleeding risk profile using the HAS-BLED score in patients with symptomatic peripheral artery disease (PAD). A post hoc analysis was performed using data from a series of 115 consecutive patients (mean age 72.4±11.4 years; 68 men) with symptomatic PAD undergoing endovascular revascularization. The endpoint of the study was to assess bleeding risk using the 9-point HAS-BLED score, which was previously validated in cohorts of patients with and without atrial fibrillation. For the purpose of this study, the low (0-1), intermediate (2), and high-risk (≥3) scores were stratified as low/intermediate risk (HAS-BLED risk (HAS-BLED ≥3). The mean HAS-BLED score was 2.76±1.16; 64 (56%) patients had a HAS-BLED score ≥3.0. Patients with PAD Rutherford category 5/6 ischemia had an even higher mean HAS-BLED score (3.20±1.12). Logistic regression analysis revealed aortoiliac or femoropopliteal segment involvement, chronic kidney disease, as well as Rutherford category 5/6, to be independent risk factors associated with a HAS-BLED score ≥3. Patients with PAD, especially those presenting with Rutherford category 5/6 ischemic symptoms, have high HAS-BLED scores, suggesting increased risk for major bleeding. Prospective clinical validation of the HAS-BLED score in patients with PAD may help with the risk-benefit assessment when prescribing antithrombotic therapy. © The Author(s) 2016.

Body composition indices and predicted cardiovascular disease risk profile among urban dwellers in Malaysia.

Science.gov (United States)

Su, Tin Tin; Amiri, Mohammadreza; Mohd Hairi, Farizah; Thangiah, Nithiah; Dahlui, Maznah; Majid, Hazreen Abdul

2015-01-01

This study aims to compare various body composition indices and their association with a predicted cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk profile in an urban population in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. A cross-sectional survey was conducted in metropolitan Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, in 2012. Households were selected using a simple random-sampling method, and adult members were invited for medical screening. The Framingham Risk Scoring algorithm was used to predict CVD risk, which was then analyzed in association with body composition measurements, including waist circumference, waist-hip ratio, waist-height ratio, body fat percentage, and body mass index. Altogether, 882 individuals were included in our analyses. Indices that included waist-related measurements had the strongest association with CVD risk in both genders. After adjusting for demographic and socioeconomic variables, waist-related measurements retained the strongest correlations with predicted CVD risk in males. However, body mass index, waist-height ratio, and waist circumference had the strongest correlation with CVD risk in females. The waist-related indicators of abdominal obesity are important components of CVD risk profiles. As waist-related parameters can quickly and easily be measured, they should be routinely obtained in primary care settings and population health screens in order to assess future CVD risk profiles and design appropriate interventions.

Body Composition Indices and Predicted Cardiovascular Disease Risk Profile among Urban Dwellers in Malaysia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tin Tin Su

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Objectives. This study aims to compare various body composition indices and their association with a predicted cardiovascular disease (CVD risk profile in an urban population in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Methods. A cross-sectional survey was conducted in metropolitan Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, in 2012. Households were selected using a simple random-sampling method, and adult members were invited for medical screening. The Framingham Risk Scoring algorithm was used to predict CVD risk, which was then analyzed in association with body composition measurements, including waist circumference, waist-hip ratio, waist-height ratio, body fat percentage, and body mass index. Results. Altogether, 882 individuals were included in our analyses. Indices that included waist-related measurements had the strongest association with CVD risk in both genders. After adjusting for demographic and socioeconomic variables, waist-related measurements retained the strongest correlations with predicted CVD risk in males. However, body mass index, waist-height ratio, and waist circumference had the strongest correlation with CVD risk in females. Conclusions. The waist-related indicators of abdominal obesity are important components of CVD risk profiles. As waist-related parameters can quickly and easily be measured, they should be routinely obtained in primary care settings and population health screens in order to assess future CVD risk profiles and design appropriate interventions.

Giant Constrictors: Biological and Management Profiles and an Establishment Risk Assessment for Nine Large Species of Pythons, Anacondas, and the Boa Constrictor

Science.gov (United States)

Reed, Robert N.; Rodda, Gordon H.

2009-01-01

Giant Constrictors: Biological and Management Profiles and an Establishment Risk Assessment for Nine Large Species of Pythons, Anacondas, and the Boa Constrictor, estimates the ecological risks associated with colonization of the United States by nine large constrictors. The nine include the world's four largest snake species (Green Anaconda, Eunectes murinus; Indian or Burmese Python, Python molurus; Northern African Python, Python sebae; and Reticulated Python, Broghammerus reticulatus), the Boa Constrictor (Boa constrictor), and four species that are ecologically or visually similar to one of the above (Southern African Python, Python natalensis; Yellow Anaconda, Eunectes notaeus; DeSchauensee's Anaconda, Eunectes deschauenseei; and Beni Anaconda, Eunectes beniensis). At present, the only probable pathway by which these species would become established in the United States is the pet trade. Although importation for the pet trade involves some risk that these animals could become established as exotic or invasive species, it does not guarantee such establishment. Federal regulators have the task of appraising the importation risks and balancing those risks against economic, social, and ecological benefits associated with the importation. The risk assessment quantifies only the ecological risks, recognizing that ecosystem processes are complex and only poorly understood. The risk assessment enumerates the types of economic impacts that may be experienced, but leaves quantification of economic costs to subsequent studies. Primary factors considered in judging the risk of establishment were: (1) history of establishment in other countries, (2) number of each species in commerce, (3) suitability of U.S. climates for each species, and (4) natural history traits, such as reproductive rate and dispersal ability, that influence the probability of establishment, spread, and impact. In addition, the risk assessment reviews all management tools for control of invasive giant

Association of cardiometabolic risk profile with prehypertension accompany hyperhomocysteinaemia.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Huili; Sun, Yuemin; Wang, Xuechun; Si, Quan; Yao, Wei; Wan, Zheng

2015-01-01

Study suggested that elevated homocysteine showed a multiplicative effect on cardiovascular diseases in hypertensive subjects. It was reported that elevated homocysteine level was independently associated with increased arterial stiffness in prehypertensives. It remains unclear whether prehypertensives combined with elevated homocysteine have adverse cardiovascular risk factors. We aimed to compare cardiometabolic risk profile between prehypertensives with hyperhomocysteinaemia and those without either condition. Plasma total homocysteine and risk profile were determined among 874 Chinese non-hypertension individuals in Tianjin. They were subdivided into four groups: prehypertension with hyperhomocysteinaemia (≥10 μmol/L), prehypertension with normal homocysteine (risk profile. Strict lipid management and weigh control may be needed in prehypertensives with elevated homocysteine.

Does Lipid Profile Affect Thrombin Generation During Ramadan Fasting in Patients With Cardiovascular Risks?

Science.gov (United States)

Sassi, Mouna; Chakroun, Taher; Chouchène, Saoussen; Hellara, Ilhem; Boubaker, Hamdi; Grissa, Mohamed Habib; Khochtali, Ines; Hassine, Mohsen; Addad, Faouzi; Elalamy, Ismail; Nouira, Semir

2017-11-01

There is evidence that diet and variation in lipid metabolism can influence blood coagulation, but little is known about the effect of Ramadan fasting on plasmatic coagulation pattern. We investigated the effect of Ramadan fasting on thrombin generation (TG) in patients with cardiovascular disease (CVD) risks, and we aimed to assess the effect of lipid profile on TG parameters. The study was conducted in 36 adults having at least 2 CVD risks and in 30 healthy controls. Coagulation pattern was assessed by both classical clotting times and TG test. A complete lipid profile was performed simultaneously. Patients were invited 2 times: 1 week before Ramadan and during the last week of the Ramadan. The TG parameters were not different in patients with CVD risks compared to healthy controls. Fasting had no effect on plasmatic coagulation parameters and on TG profile. Individual analysis of the mean rate index (MRI) of TG revealed 3 groups: group 1 with no modification of MRI, group 2 with a significant increase in MRI (81.64 nM/min vs 136.07 nM/min; P fasting did not influence the global coagulation pattern in patients with CVD risks. Whereas, a significant increase in the propagation phase of TG was associated with a significant increase in cholesterol levels, which was not found with the other TG parameters.

Atherogenic Risk Assessment among Persons Living in Rural Uganda

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Clara Wekesa

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Background. Hypertension and dyslipidemia are independent risk factors for coronary heart disease and commonly coexist. Cardiovascular risk can be reliably predicted using lipid ratios such as the atherogenic index, a useful prognostic parameter for guiding timely interventions. Objective. We assessed the cardiovascular risk profile based on the atherogenic index of residents within a rural Ugandan cohort. Methods. In 2011, a population based survey was conducted among 7507 participants. Sociodemographic characteristics, physical measurements (blood pressure, weight, height, and waist and hip circumference, and blood sampling for nonfasting lipid profile were collected for each participant. Atherogenic risk profile, defined as logarithm base ten of (triglyceride divided by high density lipoprotein cholesterol, was categorised as low risk (0.24. Results. Fifty-five percent of participants were female and the mean age was 49.9 years (SD±20.2. Forty-two percent of participants had high and intermediate atherogenic risk. Persons with hypertension, untreated HIV infection, abnormal glycaemia, and obesity and living in less urbanised villages were more at risk. Conclusion. A significant proportion of persons in this rural population are at risk of atherosclerosis. Key identified populations at risk should be considered for future intervention against cardiovascular related morbidity and mortality. The study however used parameters from unfasted samples that may have a bearing on observed results.

Risk monitor - a tool for operational safety assessment risk monitor - user's manual

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hari Prasad, M.; Vinod, Gopika; Saraf, R.K.; Ghosh, A.K.

2006-06-01

Probabilistic Safety Assessment has become a key tool as on today to identify and understand Nuclear Power Plant vulnerabilities. As a result of the availability of these PSA studies, there is a desire to use them to enhance plant safety and to operate the nuclear stations in the most efficient manner. Risk Monitor is a PC based tool, which computes the real time safety level and assists plant personnel to manage day-to-day activities. Risk Monitor is a PC based user friendly software tool used for modification and re-analysis of a nuclear Power plant. Operation of Risk Monitor is based on PSA methods for assisting in day to day applications. Risk Monitoring programs can assess the risk profile and are used to optimize the operation of Nuclear Power Plants with respect to a minimum risk level over the operating time. This report presents the background activities of Risk Monitor, its application areas and the step by step procedure for the user.to interact with the software. This software can be used with the PSA model of any Nuclear Power Plant. (author)

Urinary arsenic profile affects the risk of urothelial carcinoma even at low arsenic exposure

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pu, Y.-S.; Yang, S.-M.; Huang, Y.-K.; Chung, C.-J.; Huang, Steven K.; Chiu, Allen Wen-Hsiang; Yang, M.-H.; Chen, C.-J.; Hsueh, Y.-M.

2007-01-01

Arsenic exposure is associated with an increased risk of urothelial carcinoma (UC). To explore the association between individual risk and urinary arsenic profile in subjects without evident exposure, 177 UC cases and 313 age-matched controls were recruited between September 2002 and May 2004 for a case-control study. Urinary arsenic species including the following three categories, inorganic arsenic (As III + As V ), monomethylarsonic acid (MMA V ) and dimethylarsinic acid (DMA V ), were determined with high-performance liquid chromatography-linked hydride generator and atomic absorption spectrometry. Arsenic methylation profile was assessed by percentages of various arsenic species in the sum of the three categories measured. The primary methylation index (PMI) was defined as the ratio between MMA V and inorganic arsenic. Secondary methylation index (SMI) was determined as the ratio between DMA V and MMA V . Smoking is associated with a significant risk of UC in a dose-dependent manner. After multivariate adjustment, UC cases had a significantly higher sum of all the urinary species measured, higher percent MMA V , lower percent DMA V , higher PMI and lower SMI values compared with controls. Smoking interacts with the urinary arsenic profile in modifying the UC risk. Differential carcinogenic effects of the urinary arsenic profile, however, were seen more prominently in non-smokers than in smokers, suggesting that smoking is not the only major environmental source of arsenic contamination since the UC risk differs in non-smokers. Subjects who have an unfavorable urinary arsenic profile have an increased UC risk even at low exposure levels

A simple data base for identification of risk profiles

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Munganahalli, D.

1996-12-31

Sedco Forex is a drilling contractor that operates approximately 80 rigs on land and offshore worldwide. The HSE management system developed by Sedco Forex is an effort to prevent accidents and minimize losses. An integral part of the HSE management system is establishing risk profiles and thereby minimizing risk and reducing loss exposures. Risk profiles are established based on accident reports, potential accident reports and other risk identification reports (RIR) like the Du Pont STOP system. A rig could fill in as many as 30 accident reports, 30 potential accident reports and 500 STOP cards each year. Statistics are important for an HSE management system, since they are indicators of success or failure of HSE systems. It is however difficult to establish risk profiles based on statistical information, unless tools are available at the rig site to aid with the analysis. Risk profiles are then used to identify important areas in the operation that may require specific attention to minimize the loss exposure. Programs to address the loss exposure can then be identified and implemented with either a local or corporate approach. In January 1995, Sedco Forex implemented a uniform HSE Database on all the rigs worldwide. In one year companywide, the HSE database would contain information on approximately 500 accident and potential accident reports, and 10,000 STOP cards. This paper demonstrates the salient features of the database and describes how it has helped in establishing key risk profiles. It also shows a recent example of how risk profiles have been established at the corporate level and used to identify the key contributing factors to hands and finger injuries. Based on this information, a campaign was launched to minimize the frequency of occurrence and associated loss attributed to hands and fingers accidents.

Risk Factors Profile of Shoulder Dystocia in Oman: A Case Control Study

OpenAIRE

Maha M. Al-Khaduri; Rania Mohammed Abudraz; Sayed G. Rizvi; Yahya M. Al-Farsi

2014-01-01

Objective: This study aimed to assess the risk factor profile of shoulder dystocia and associated neonatal complications in Oman, a developing Arab country. Methods: A retrospective case-control study was conducted among 111 cases with dystocia and 111 controls, identified during 1994-2006 period in a tertiary care hospital in Oman. Controls were randomly selected among women who did not have dystocia, and were matched to cases on the day of delivery. Data related to potential risk factor...

Ultrasound assessment of the fetal biophysical profile: What does an radiologist need to know?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guimaraes Filho, Helio Antonio; Araujo Junior, Edward; Marcondes Machado Nardozza, Luciano; Linhares Dias da Costa, Lavoisier; Fernandes Moron, Antonio; Mattar, Rosiane

2008-01-01

Proposed by Frank Manning about 26 years ago, fetal biophysical profile has been incorporated to the propaedeutics of non-invasive fetal well being assessment in high-risk gestations. Despite the existence of other methods for assessing fetal vitality, as Doppler flowmetry, the biophysical profile continues to be important in estimating the risk of hypoxia and perinatal morbimortality for those fetuses. In the present article, the authors review the regulatory mechanisms of fetal biophysical activities, as well as physiological and pathological factors that interfere with them. The main objective of the study is to discuss the present and important aspects of the method, and the practical applications and interpretation of its findings, in order to help radiologists improve their knowledge in this specific area of fetal ultrasonography

Cardiovascular risk profile in burn survivors.

Science.gov (United States)

Leung, Becky; Younger, John F; Stockton, Kellie; Muller, Michael; Paratz, Jennifer

2017-11-01

Burn patients have prolonged derangements in metabolic, endocrine, cardiac and psychosocial systems, potentially impacting on their cardiovascular health. There are no studies on the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) after-burn. The aim of our study was to record lipid values and evaluate CVD risk in adult burn survivors. In a cross-sectional study patients ≥18 years with burn injury between 18-80% total burn surface area (TBSA) from 1998 to 2012 had total cholesterol, low density lipoprotein (LDL), high density lipoprotein (HDL) and triglycerides measured via finger prick. Means were compared to optimal ranges. Multivariate regression models were performed to assess the association of lipids with age, years after-burn and total body surface area % (TBSA). A p value Risk Score (FGCRS) was calculated. Fifty patients were included in the study. Compared to optimal values, patients had low HDL and high triglycerides. Greater %TBSA was associated with statistically significant elevation of triglycerides (p=0.007) and total cholesterol/HDL ratio (p=0.027). The median FGCRS was 3.9% (low) 10-year risk of CVD with 82% of patients in the low-risk category. Patients involved in medium/high level of physical activity had optimal values of HDL, TC/HDL and triglycerides despite the magnitude of TBSA%. Adult burn survivors had alterations in lipid profile proportional to TBSA, which could be modified by exercise, and no increase in overall formally predicted CVD risk in this cross sectional study. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd and ISBI. All rights reserved.

Primary School Teachers’ Assessment Profiles in Mathematics Education

Science.gov (United States)

Veldhuis, Michiel; van den Heuvel-Panhuizen, Marja

2014-01-01

The aim of this study was to contribute to knowledge about classroom assessment by identifying profiles of teachers’ assessment of their students’ understanding of mathematics. For carrying out this study we used data of a nationwide teacher survey (N = 960) in the Netherlands. The data were collected by an online questionnaire. Through exploratory factor analyses the underlying structure of what is measured by this questionnaire was uncovered as consisting of five factors: Goal centeredness of assessment, Authentic nature of assessment, Perceived usefulness of assessment, Diversity of assessment problem format, and Allocated importance of assessing skills and knowledge. By using a latent class analysis four different assessment profiles of teachers were identified: Enthusiastic assessors, Mainstream assessors, Non-enthusiastic assessors, and Alternative assessors. The findings suggest that teachers with particular assessment profiles have qualitatively different assessment practices. The paper concludes with discussing theoretical implications of these assessment profiles and indications these profiles can offer both for designing material for professional development in classroom assessment and for evaluating changes in teachers’ classroom assessment practice. PMID:24466255

Primary school teachers' assessment profiles in mathematics education.

Science.gov (United States)

Veldhuis, Michiel; van den Heuvel-Panhuizen, Marja

2014-01-01

The aim of this study was to contribute to knowledge about classroom assessment by identifying profiles of teachers' assessment of their students' understanding of mathematics. For carrying out this study we used data of a nationwide teacher survey (N = 960) in the Netherlands. The data were collected by an online questionnaire. Through exploratory factor analyses the underlying structure of what is measured by this questionnaire was uncovered as consisting of five factors: Goal centeredness of assessment, Authentic nature of assessment, Perceived usefulness of assessment, Diversity of assessment problem format, and Allocated importance of assessing skills and knowledge. By using a latent class analysis four different assessment profiles of teachers were identified: Enthusiastic assessors, Mainstream assessors, Non-enthusiastic assessors, and Alternative assessors. The findings suggest that teachers with particular assessment profiles have qualitatively different assessment practices. The paper concludes with discussing theoretical implications of these assessment profiles and indications these profiles can offer both for designing material for professional development in classroom assessment and for evaluating changes in teachers' classroom assessment practice.

Primary school teachers' assessment profiles in mathematics education.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michiel Veldhuis

Full Text Available The aim of this study was to contribute to knowledge about classroom assessment by identifying profiles of teachers' assessment of their students' understanding of mathematics. For carrying out this study we used data of a nationwide teacher survey (N = 960 in the Netherlands. The data were collected by an online questionnaire. Through exploratory factor analyses the underlying structure of what is measured by this questionnaire was uncovered as consisting of five factors: Goal centeredness of assessment, Authentic nature of assessment, Perceived usefulness of assessment, Diversity of assessment problem format, and Allocated importance of assessing skills and knowledge. By using a latent class analysis four different assessment profiles of teachers were identified: Enthusiastic assessors, Mainstream assessors, Non-enthusiastic assessors, and Alternative assessors. The findings suggest that teachers with particular assessment profiles have qualitatively different assessment practices. The paper concludes with discussing theoretical implications of these assessment profiles and indications these profiles can offer both for designing material for professional development in classroom assessment and for evaluating changes in teachers' classroom assessment practice.

Caries risk assessment in young adults

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Petersson, Gunnel Hänsel; Twetman, Svante

2015-01-01

BACKGROUND: To validate baseline caries risk classifications according to the Cariogram model with the actual caries development over a 3-year period in a group of young adults living in Sweden. METHODS: The study group consisted of 1,295 19-year-old patients that completed a comprehensive clinical...... baseline examination, including radiographs and salivary tests. An individual caries risk profile was computed and the patient was placed in one of five risk categories. After 3 years, 982 patients (75.8%) were re-examined and caries increment for each patient was calculated. The outcome was expressed...... as sensitivity, specificity and predictive values and compared with a risk assessment scheme used in Public Dental Service. RESULTS: The drop-outs displayed more risk factors and a significantly higher caries burden at baseline compared with those that remained in the project (p 

Maternal and perinatal outcomes in 143 Danish women with gestational diabetes mellitus and 143 controls with a similar risk profile

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Dorte Møller; Sørensen, B; Feilberg-Jørgensen, N

2000-01-01

To assess maternal and fetal outcomes in pregnancies complicated by gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) compared to non-diabetic pregnancies with an otherwise similar risk profile and to study the association between different anti-diabetic treatments and fetal outcomes.......To assess maternal and fetal outcomes in pregnancies complicated by gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) compared to non-diabetic pregnancies with an otherwise similar risk profile and to study the association between different anti-diabetic treatments and fetal outcomes....

The psychosocial profile of adolescent risk of homelessness.

Science.gov (United States)

Bearsley-Smith, Cate A; Bond, Lyndal M; Littlefield, Lyn; Thomas, Lyndal R

2008-06-01

To contrast the psychosocial profile of adolescents with risk factors for homelessness, identified using Chamberlain and MacKenzie's self-report scale, compared to the profiles of homeless adolescents. Multinomial logistic regression analyses were conducted contrasting profiles for (a) 137 homeless adolescents, (b) 766 secondary students reporting risk factors for homelessness, and (c) 4,844 students not reporting risks for homelessness. Fourteen percent of a representative population of at-school adolescents, from Victoria, Australia, showed elevated risk of homelessness. These adolescents showed depressive symptoms at least equivalent to homeless adolescents (RR 6.0, 95% CI: 4.9, 7.3, and RR 3.5, 95% CI: 2.1, 5.8, respectively). In multivariate analyses, homeless and at risk adolescents reported equivalent levels of family conflict, early problem behaviour and low opportunities and rewards for family involvement. Compared to adolescents not at risk, at risk adolescents were more likely to be female and to show poorer social skills/assertiveness and depressive symptoms. Compared to at risk adolescents, homeless adolescents showed additional family, school, peer and individual risks, but lower depressive symptomatology. The findings highlight the potential we have to quickly and simply detect adolescents showing significant risk of homelessness. This sizable minority of adolescents report risks often equivalent to homeless adolescents. It is hoped that stakeholders working with young people will utilise this screening potential to identify and intervene effectively with this significant subpopulation of youth, and their families, while they are still at home and school.

Probabilistic risk assessment of abalone Haliotis diversicolor supertexta exposed to waterborne zinc

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liao Chungmin; Ling Minpei

2004-01-01

This paper describes a risk assessment approach that integrates predicted tissue concentrations of zinc (Zn) with a concentration-response relationship and leads to predictions of survival risk for pond abalone Haliotis diversicolor supertexta as well as to the uncertainties associated with these predictions. The models implemented include a probabilistic bioaccumulation model, which linking biokinetic and consumer-resource models, accounts for Zn exposure profile and a modified Hill model for reconstructing a dose-response profile for abalone exposed to waterborne Zn. The growth risk is assessed by hazard quotients characterized by measured water level and chronic no-observed effect concentration. Our risk analyses for H. diversicolor supertexta reared near Toucheng, Kouhu, and Anping, respectively, in north, central, and south Taiwan region indicate a relatively low likelihood that survival is being affected by waterborne Zn. Expected risks of mortality for abalone were estimated as 0.46 (Toucheng), 0.36 (Kouhu), and 0.29 (Anping). The predicted 90th-percentiles of hazard quotient for potential growth risk were estimated as 1.94 (Toucheng), 0.47 (Kouhu), and 0.51 (Anping). These findings indicate that waterborne Zn exposure poses no significant risk to pond abalone in Kouhu and Anping, yet a relative high growth risk in Toucheng is alarming. Because of a scarcity of toxicity and exposure data, the probabilistic risk assessment was based on very conservative assumptions. - A novel risk assessment method was developed for abalone

Probabilistic risk assessment of abalone Haliotis diversicolor supertexta exposed to waterborne zinc

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Liao Chungmin; Ling Minpei

2004-01-01

This paper describes a risk assessment approach that integrates predicted tissue concentrations of zinc (Zn) with a concentration-response relationship and leads to predictions of survival risk for pond abalone Haliotis diversicolor supertexta as well as to the uncertainties associated with these predictions. The models implemented include a probabilistic bioaccumulation model, which linking biokinetic and consumer-resource models, accounts for Zn exposure profile and a modified Hill model for reconstructing a dose-response profile for abalone exposed to waterborne Zn. The growth risk is assessed by hazard quotients characterized by measured water level and chronic no-observed effect concentration. Our risk analyses for H. diversicolor supertexta reared near Toucheng, Kouhu, and Anping, respectively, in north, central, and south Taiwan region indicate a relatively low likelihood that survival is being affected by waterborne Zn. Expected risks of mortality for abalone were estimated as 0.46 (Toucheng), 0.36 (Kouhu), and 0.29 (Anping). The predicted 90th-percentiles of hazard quotient for potential growth risk were estimated as 1.94 (Toucheng), 0.47 (Kouhu), and 0.51 (Anping). These findings indicate that waterborne Zn exposure poses no significant risk to pond abalone in Kouhu and Anping, yet a relative high growth risk in Toucheng is alarming. Because of a scarcity of toxicity and exposure data, the probabilistic risk assessment was based on very conservative assumptions. - A novel risk assessment method was developed for abalone.

Personalized risk communication for personalized risk assessment: Real world assessment of knowledge and motivation for six mortality risk measures from an online life expectancy calculator.

Science.gov (United States)

Manuel, Douglas G; Abdulaziz, Kasim E; Perez, Richard; Beach, Sarah; Bennett, Carol

2018-01-01

In the clinical setting, previous studies have shown personalized risk assessment and communication improves risk perception and motivation. We evaluated an online health calculator that estimated and presented six different measures of life expectancy/mortality based on a person's sociodemographic and health behavior profile. Immediately after receiving calculator results, participants were invited to complete an online survey that asked how informative and motivating they found each risk measure, whether they would share their results and whether the calculator provided information they need to make lifestyle changes. Over 80% of the 317 survey respondents found at least one of six healthy living measures highly informative and motivating, but there was moderate heterogeneity regarding which measures respondents found most informative and motivating. Overall, health age was most informative and life expectancy most motivating. Approximately 40% of respondents would share the results with their clinician (44%) or social networks (38%), although the information they would share was often different from what they found informative or motivational. Online personalized risk assessment allows for a more personalized communication compared to historic paper-based risk assessment to maximize knowledge and motivation, and people should be provided a range of risk communication measures that reflect different risk perspectives.

Risk factors and assessment for cardiovascular disease among HIV ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Methods: this was a cross-sectional study of HIV-positive patients attending the Lagos University Teaching Hospital, Nigeria. Anthropometric and blood pressure measurements were performed; fasting lipid profile, plasma glucose, homocysteine and hsCRP were determined, as well as prevalences and risk assessments.

Pilot Study of a Computer-Based Parental Questionnaire and Visual Profile of Obesity Risk in Healthy Preschoolers.

Science.gov (United States)

Davies, Marilyn A; Terhorst, Lauren; Zhang, Peng; Nakonechny, Amanda J; Nowalk, Mary Patricia

2015-01-01

This group field-tested a computer-based, parental questionnaire entitled the Childhood Obesity Risk Questionnaire 2-5 (CORQ 2-5) designed to assess obesity risk in healthy preschoolers. COR 2-5 generates a profile of seven obesity risk factors. Field studies provided good internal reliability data and evidence of discriminant validity for the CORQ 2-5. Pediatric nurse clinicians found the CORQ 2-5 profile to be clinically relevant. The CORQ 2-5 is a promising measure of obesity risk in preschoolers who attend community-based health centers for their wellchild visits and who are not yet obese. CORQ 2-5 is intended to guide provider-parental obesity risk discussions. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Environmental Risk Profiling of the Volta Delta, Ghana

Science.gov (United States)

Nyarko, B. K.; Appeaning-Addo, K.; Amisigo, B.

2017-12-01

Volta Delta communities find it difficult to absorb or bear risk at different levels, because of the physical and economic impacts of environmental hazards. In this regards various agencies and organizations have in recent years launched initiatives to measure and identify risk areas with a set of indicators and indices. The theory underpinning this study is concepts of Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT). The Cox proportional hazards regression model will be used as the model for the risk profile. Finding the optimal level of environmental risk for activities in the Volta Delta considering the risk required, risk capacity and risk tolerance. Using data from different sources, an environmental risk profile was developed for the Volta Delta. The result indicates that risks are distributed across the Delta. However, areas that have government interventions, such as sea defense system and irrigation facilities have less threat. In addition wealthy areas do effectively reduce the threat of any form of disaster.

Risk and dose assessment methods in gamma knife QA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Banks, W.W.; Jones, E.D.; Rathbun, P.

1992-10-01

Traditional methods used in assessing risk in nuclear power plants may be inappropriate to use in assessing medical radiation risks. The typical philosophy used in assessing nuclear reactor risks is machine dominated with only secondary attention paid to the human component, and only after critical machine failure events have been identified. In assessing the risk of a misadministrative radiation dose to patients, the primary source of failures seems to stem overwhelmingly, from the actions of people and only secondarily from machine mode failures. In essence, certain medical misadministrations are dominated by human events not machine failures. Radiological medical devices such as the Leksell Gamma Knife are very simple in design, have few moving parts, and are relatively free from the risks of wear when compared with a nuclear power plant. Since there are major technical differences between a gamma knife and a nuclear power plant, one must select a particular risk assessment method which is sensitive to these system differences and tailored to the unique medical aspects of the phenomena under study. These differences also generate major shifts in the philosophy and assumptions which drive the risk assessment (Machine-centered vs Person-centered) method. We were prompted by these basic differences to develop a person-centered approach to risk assessment which would reflect these basic philosophical and technological differences, have the necessary resolution in its metrics, and be highly reliable (repeatable). The risk approach chosen by the Livermore investigative team has been called the ''Relative Risk Profile Method'' and has been described in detail by Banks and Paramore, (1983)

Latent profile analysis of neuropsychological measures to determine preschoolers' risk for ADHD.

Science.gov (United States)

Rajendran, Khushmand; O'Neill, Sarah; Marks, David J; Halperin, Jeffrey M

2015-09-01

Hyperactive/Inattentive preschool children show clear evidence of neuropsychological dysfunction. We examined whether patterns and severity of test scores could reliably identify subgroups of preschoolers with differential risk for ADHD during school-age. Typically developing (TD: n = 76) and Hyperactive/Inattentive (HI: n = 138) 3-4 year olds were assessed annually for 6 years (T1-T6). Latent profile analysis (LPA) was used to form subgroups among the HI group based on objective/neuropsychological measures (NEPSY, Actigraph and Continuous Performance Test). Logistic regression assessed the predictive validity of empirically formed subgroups at risk for ADHD diagnosis relative to the TD group and to each other from T2 to T6. Latent profile analysis yielded two subgroups of HI preschoolers: (a) selectively weak Attention/Executive functions, and (b) pervasive neuropsychological dysfunction across all measures. Both subgroups were more likely to have ADHD at all follow-up time-points relative to the TD group (OR range: 11.29-86.32), but there were no significant differences between the LPA-formed subgroups of HI children at any time-point. Objective/neuropsychological measures distinguish HI preschoolers from their TD peers, but patterns and severity of neuropsychological dysfunction do not predict risk for ADHD during school-age. We hypothesize that trajectories in at-risk children are influenced by subsequent environmental and neurodevelopmental factors, raising the possibility that they are amenable to early intervention. © 2015 Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

Risk profile of the RET A883F germline mutation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mathiesen, Jes Sloth; Habra, Mouhammed Amir; Bassett, John Howard Duncan

2017-01-01

the highest to high risk level, although no well-defined risk profile for this mutation exists. Objective: To create a risk profile for the A883F mutation for appropriate classification in the ATA risk levels. Design: Retrospective analysis. Setting: International collaboration. Patients: Included were 13 A...... seems to have a more indolent natural course compared to that of M918T carriers. Our results support the classification of the A883F mutation in the ATA high risk level....

Risk assessment and remedial policy evaluation using predictive modeling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Linkov, L.; Schell, W.R.

1996-01-01

As a result of nuclear industry operation and accidents, large areas of natural ecosystems have been contaminated by radionuclides and toxic metals. Extensive societal pressure has been exerted to decrease the radiation dose to the population and to the environment. Thus, in making abatement and remediation policy decisions, not only economic costs but also human and environmental risk assessments are desired. This paper introduces a general framework for risk assessment and remedial policy evaluation using predictive modeling. Ecological risk assessment requires evaluation of the radionuclide distribution in ecosystems. The FORESTPATH model is used for predicting the radionuclide fate in forest compartments after deposition as well as for evaluating the efficiency of remedial policies. Time of intervention and radionuclide deposition profile was predicted as being crucial for the remediation efficiency. Risk assessment conducted for a critical group of forest users in Belarus shows that consumption of forest products (berries and mushrooms) leads to about 0.004% risk of a fatal cancer annually. Cost-benefit analysis for forest cleanup suggests that complete removal of organic layer is too expensive for application in Belarus and a better methodology is required. In conclusion, FORESTPATH modeling framework could have wide applications in environmental remediation of radionuclides and toxic metals as well as in dose reconstruction and, risk-assessment

Modeling Exposure to Persistent Chemicals in Hazard and Risk Assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cowan-Ellsberry, Christina E.; McLachlan, Michael S.; Arnot, Jon A.; MacLeod, Matthew; McKone, Thomas E.; Wania, Frank

2008-11-01

Fate and exposure modeling has not thus far been explicitly used in the risk profile documents prepared to evaluate significant adverse effect of candidate chemicals for either the Stockholm Convention or the Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution. However, we believe models have considerable potential to improve the risk profiles. Fate and exposure models are already used routinely in other similar regulatory applications to inform decisions, and they have been instrumental in building our current understanding of the fate of POP and PBT chemicals in the environment. The goal of this paper is to motivate the use of fate and exposure models in preparing risk profiles in the POP assessment procedure by providing strategies for incorporating and using models. The ways that fate and exposure models can be used to improve and inform the development of risk profiles include: (1) Benchmarking the ratio of exposure and emissions of candidate chemicals to the same ratio for known POPs, thereby opening the possibility of combining this ratio with the relative emissions and relative toxicity to arrive at a measure of relative risk. (2) Directly estimating the exposure of the environment, biota and humans to provide information to complement measurements, or where measurements are not available or are limited. (3) To identify the key processes and chemical and/or environmental parameters that determine the exposure; thereby allowing the effective prioritization of research or measurements to improve the risk profile. (4) Predicting future time trends including how quickly exposure levels in remote areas would respond to reductions in emissions. Currently there is no standardized consensus model for use in the risk profile context. Therefore, to choose the appropriate model the risk profile developer must evaluate how appropriate an existing model is for a specific setting and whether the assumptions and input data are relevant in the context of the application

Monte Carlo simulation of single accident airport risk profile

Science.gov (United States)

1979-01-01

A computer simulation model was developed for estimating the potential economic impacts of a carbon fiber release upon facilities within an 80 kilometer radius of a major airport. The model simulated the possible range of release conditions and the resulting dispersion of the carbon fibers. Each iteration of the model generated a specific release scenario, which would cause a specific amount of dollar loss to the surrounding community. By repeated iterations, a risk profile was generated, showing the probability distribution of losses from one accident. Using accident probability estimates, the risks profile for annual losses was derived. The mechanics are described of the simulation model, the required input data, and the risk profiles generated for the 26 large hub airports.

The profile of high-risk pregnancy in El-Mansoura city.

Science.gov (United States)

Yassin, Shadia A T; Gamal El-Deen, Amany A; Emam, Mohamed A; Omer, Abeer K F

2005-01-01

Proper screening techniques should be used for all pregnant women attending antenatal clinics to pick up the factors that qualify the pregnant women for a risky pregnancy. High-risk pregnancy identification is a challenging work. This study aimed to describe the profile of high-risk pregnancy in El-Mansoura city. The study was conducted on 750 pregnant women attending antenatal clinics in three hospitals in El-Mansoura city, where 250 women were chosen from each setting. A modified version of Morrison and Olsen (1979) high risk scoring inventory tool was used to collect the socioeconomic, biological, medical, reproductive and current pregnancy risk factors in the study sample. It also assessed the risk level whether low, moderate or high. The results revealed that among all women, 63.8% of the sample were at a high-risk, while 25.0 % of them were at a moderate-risk and only 11.2% were at low-risk. About 70.0% of the high-risk pregnant women were in their third trimester followed by 23.0% in the second trimester and only 7.1% were in the first trimester. About 5.9% of the women were at a high-risk because of polluted housing condition, 1.9% because of heart diseases Class capital I, Ukrainian or II, 5.2% because of diabetes mellitus, 4.2% because of hypertension and 14.9% because of previous cesarean section. On the other hand 14.8% women were at moderate risk because of their illiteracy, 29.2% of them for being short, 14.7%, 10.6% of them because of being teenagers or over 35 years of age, respectively, 12.6% of because they had a history of gestational diabetes and 32.8%of them because of anemia, 23.2% because urinary tract infection, 16.9% because of albuminuria, and 12.0% because of glucoseuria. Finally identifying the profile of high -risk pregnancy women is mandatory.

Problems of job-profile for risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Compes, P.C.

1984-01-01

There is no job-profile for the risk analyst. It would be his job to detect and classify accident risks, i.e. make a diagnosis and type rationalization, and to subsequently analyse them with respect to their frequency and probability as well as to the extent of damage caused. (DG) [de

Helping Callers to the National Suicide Prevention Lifeline Who Are at Imminent Risk of Suicide: Evaluation of Caller Risk Profiles and Interventions Implemented.

Science.gov (United States)

Gould, Madelyn S; Lake, Alison M; Munfakh, Jimmie Lou; Galfalvy, Hanga; Kleinman, Marjorie; Williams, Caitlin; Glass, Andrew; McKeon, Richard

2016-04-01

Crisis lines are settings where identifying individuals at imminent risk of suicidal behavior and intervening to keep them safe are critical activities. We examined clinical characteristics of crisis callers assessed by telephone crisis helpers as being at imminent risk of suicide, and the interventions implemented with these callers. Data were derived from 491 call reports completed by 132 helpers at eight crisis centers in the National Suicide Prevention Lifeline network. Helpers actively engaged the callers in collaborating to keep themselves safe on 76.4% of calls and sent emergency services without the callers' collaboration on 24.6% of calls. Four different profiles of imminent risk calls emerged. Caller profiles and some helper characteristics were associated with intervention type. Our findings provide a first step toward an empirical formulation of imminent risk warning signs and recommended interventions. © 2015 The American Association of Suicidology.

The clinical profile of high-risk mentally disordered offenders.

Science.gov (United States)

Yiend, Jenny; Freestone, Mark; Vazquez-Montes, Maria; Holland, Josephine; Burns, Tom

2013-07-01

High-risk mentally disordered offenders present a diverse array of clinical characteristics. To contain and effectively treat this heterogeneous population requires a full understanding of the group's clinical profile. This study aimed to identify and validate clusters of clinically coherent profiles within one high-risk mentally disordered population in the UK. Latent class analysis (a statistical technique to identify clustering of variance from a set of categorical variables) was applied to 174 cases using clinical diagnostic information to identify the most parsimonious model of best fit. Validity analyses were performed. Three identified classes were a 'delinquent' group (n = 119) characterised by poor educational history, strong criminal careers and high recidivism risk; a 'primary psychopathy' group (n = 38) characterised by good educational profiles and homicide offences and an 'expressive psychopathy' group (n = 17) presenting the lowest risk and characterised by more special educational needs and sexual offences. Individuals classed as high-risk mentally disordered offenders can be loosely segregated into three discrete subtypes: 'delinquent', 'psychopathic' or 'expressive psychopathic', respectively. These groups represent different levels of risk to society and reflect differing treatment needs.

Effectiveness of Neuromuscular Training Based on the Neuromuscular Risk Profile.

Science.gov (United States)

Hewett, Timothy E; Ford, Kevin R; Xu, Yingying Y; Khoury, Jane; Myer, Gregory D

2017-07-01

The effects of targeted neuromuscular training (TNMT) on movement biomechanics associated with the risk of anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injuries are currently unknown. Purpose/Hypotheses: To determine the effectiveness of TNMT specifically designed to increase trunk control and hip strength. The hypotheses were that (1) TNMT would decrease biomechanical and neuromuscular factors related to an increased ACL injury risk and (2) TNMT would decrease these biomechanical and neuromuscular factors to a greater extent in athletes identified as being at a high risk for future ACL injuries. Controlled laboratory study. Female athletes who participated in jumping, cutting, and pivoting sports underwent 3-dimensional biomechanical testing before the season and after completing TNMT. During testing, athletes performed 3 different types of tasks: (1) drop vertical jump, (2) single-leg drop, and (3) single-leg cross drop. Analysis of covariance was used to examine the treatment effects of TNMT designed to enhance core and hip strength on biomechanical and neuromuscular characteristics. Differences were also evaluated by risk profile. Differences were considered statistically significant at P risk before the intervention (risk profile III) had a more significant treatment effect of TNMT than low-risk groups (risk profiles I and II). TNMT significantly improved proximal biomechanics, including increased hip external rotation moments and moment impulses, increased peak trunk flexion, and decreased peak trunk extension. TNMT that focuses exclusively on proximal leg and trunk risk factors is not, however, adequate to induce significant changes in frontal-plane knee loading. Biomechanical changes varied across the risk profile groups, with higher risk groups exhibiting greater improvements in their biomechanics.

Gut Microbiome Associates With Lifetime Cardiovascular Disease Risk Profile Among Bogalusa Heart Study Participants.

Science.gov (United States)

Kelly, Tanika N; Bazzano, Lydia A; Ajami, Nadim J; He, Hua; Zhao, Jinying; Petrosino, Joseph F; Correa, Adolfo; He, Jiang

2016-09-30

Few studies have systematically assessed the influence of gut microbiota on cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. To examine the association between gut microbiota and lifetime CVD risk profile among 55 Bogalusa Heart Study participants with the highest and 57 with the lowest lifetime burdens of CVD risk factors. 16S ribosomal RNA sequencing was conducted on microbial DNA extracted from stool samples of the Bogalusa Heart Study participants. α Diversity, including measures of richness and evenness, and individual genera were tested for associations with lifetime CVD risk profile. Multivariable regression techniques were used to adjust for age, sex, and race (model 1), along with body mass index (model 2) and both body mass index and diet (model 3). In model 1, odds ratios (95% confidence intervals) for each SD increase in richness, measured by the number of observed operational taxonomic units, Chao 1 index, and abundance-based coverage estimator, were 0.62 (0.39-0.99), 0.61 (0.38-0.98), and 0.63 (0.39-0.99), respectively. Associations were consistent in models 2 and 3. Four genera were enriched among those with high versus low CVD risk profile in all models. Model 1 P values were 2.12×10(-3), 7.95×10(-5), 4.39×10(-4), and 1.51×10(-4) for Prevotella 2, Prevotella 7, Tyzzerella, and Tyzzerella 4, respectively. Two genera were depleted among those with high versus low CVD risk profile in all models. Model 1 P values were 2.96×10(-6) and 1.82×10(-4) for Alloprevotella and Catenibacterium, respectively. The current study identified associations of overall microbial richness and 6 microbial genera with lifetime CVD risk. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

Plumbing the depths: Utilizing O and G reserve profiles to develop forward-looking risk assessments for exploration and production activities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Botelho, Tatiana; Magrini, Alessandra; Schaeffer, Roberto

2014-01-01

The deepwater horizon accident may have shaken the sustainability ratings and indices credibility, but it also reinforced their importance. The objective of this article is to contribute to the improvement of corporate sustainability valuations by investigating if reserves profiles can affect the environmental risk exposure of an Oil and Gas (O and G) corporation. Data on reserves from 2009 to 2012 of 24 listed O and G companies were used to test six hypotheses, addressing how these profiles could relate to the four material environmental risks: climate change, accidents, sensitive area/access, water. The frequency with which companies reported these risks was evaluated using key word in context (KWIC) content analysis. Analysis of variance (Anova) and Student's t tests were applied to each of the hypotheses. This study shows environmental risks are embedded with the oil and gas reserves. We found the following relationships: (1) companies with heavy oil reserves report more exposure to climate change risks, particularly emissions control; (2) water is more of an issue with companies with higher bitumen and natural gas reserves; and (3) there is significant regional bias in the reporting of the environmental risk factors. These findings have broad implications for the financial industry, governments, investors and lenders alike. - Highlights: • We explored if reserve profile can also be used as a factor to evaluate environmental risk. • Companies with heavy oil reserves report more exposure to climate change risks. • Water is more of an issue with companies with higher bitumen and natural gas reserves. • There is significant regional bias in the reporting of the environmental risk factors

Utility of waist-to-height ratio in assessing the status of central obesity and related cardiometabolic risk profile among normal weight and overweight/obese children: The Bogalusa Heart Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xu Jihua

2010-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Body Mass Index (BMI is widely used to assess the impact of obesity on cardiometabolic risk in children but it does not always relate to central obesity and varies with growth and maturation. Waist-to-Height Ratio (WHtR is a relatively constant anthropometric index of abdominal obesity across different age, sex or racial groups. However, information is scant on the utility of WHtR in assessing the status of abdominal obesity and related cardiometabolic risk profile among normal weight and overweight/obese children, categorized according to the accepted BMI threshold values. Methods Cross-sectional cardiometabolic risk factor variables on 3091 black and white children (56% white, 50% male, 4-18 years of age were used. Based on the age-, race- and sex-specific percentiles of BMI, the children were classified as normal weight (5th - 85th percentiles and overweight/obese (≥ 85th percentile. The risk profiles of each group based on the WHtR ( Results 9.2% of the children in the normal weight group were centrally obese (WHtR ≥0.5 and 19.8% among the overweight/obese were not (WHtR Conclusion WHtR not only detects central obesity and related adverse cardiometabolic risk among normal weight children, but also identifies those without such conditions among the overweight/obese children, which has implications for pediatric primary care practice.

Risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kinchin, G.H.

1983-01-01

After defining risk and introducing the concept of individual and societal risk, the author considers each of these, restricting considerations to risk of death. Some probabilities of death arising from various causes are quoted, and attention drawn to the care necessary in making comparisons between sets of data and to the distinction between voluntary and involuntary categories and between early and delayed deaths. The presentation of information on societal risk is discussed and examples given. The history of quantified risk assessment is outlined, particularly related to the nuclear industry, the process of assessing risk discussed: identification of hazard causes, the development of accident chains and the use of event trees, the evaluation of probability through the collection of data and their use with fault trees, and the assessment of consequences of hazards in terms of fatalities. Reference is made to the human element and common-made failures, and to studies supporting the development of reliability assessment techniques. Acceptance criteria are discussed for individual and societal risk in the nuclear field, and it is shown that proposed criteria lead to risks conservative by comparison with risks from day-to-day accidents and other potentially hazardous industries. (U.K.)

Risk Assessment Overview

Science.gov (United States)

Prassinos, Peter G.; Lyver, John W., IV; Bui, Chinh T.

2011-01-01

Risk assessment is used in many industries to identify and manage risks. Initially developed for use on aeronautical and nuclear systems, risk assessment has been applied to transportation, chemical, computer, financial, and security systems among others. It is used to gain an understanding of the weaknesses or vulnerabilities in a system so modification can be made to increase operability, efficiency, and safety and to reduce failure and down-time. Risk assessment results are primary inputs to risk-informed decision making; where risk information including uncertainty is used along with other pertinent information to assist management in the decision-making process. Therefore, to be useful, a risk assessment must be directed at specific objectives. As the world embraces the globalization of trade and manufacturing, understanding the associated risk become important to decision making. Applying risk assessment techniques to a global system of development, manufacturing, and transportation can provide insight into how the system can fail, the likelihood of system failure and the consequences of system failure. The risk assessment can identify those elements that contribute most to risk and identify measures to prevent and mitigate failures, disruptions, and damaging outcomes. In addition, risk associated with public and environment impact can be identified. The risk insights gained can be applied to making decisions concerning suitable development and manufacturing locations, supply chains, and transportation strategies. While risk assessment has been mostly applied to mechanical and electrical systems, the concepts and techniques can be applied across other systems and activities. This paper provides a basic overview of the development of a risk assessment.

Introduction to risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Raina, V.M.

2002-01-01

This paper gives an introduction to risk assessment. It discusses the basic concepts of risk assessment, nuclear risk assessment process and products, the role of risk assessment products in nuclear safety assurance, the relationship between risk assessment and other safety analysis and risk assessment and safe operating envelope

Modeling exposure to persistent chemicals in hazard and risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Cowan-Ellsberry, Christina E; McLachlan, Michael S; Arnot, Jon A; Macleod, Matthew; McKone, Thomas E; Wania, Frank

2009-10-01

Fate and exposure modeling has not, thus far, been explicitly used in the risk profile documents prepared for evaluating the significant adverse effect of candidate chemicals for either the Stockholm Convention or the Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution. However, we believe models have considerable potential to improve the risk profiles. Fate and exposure models are already used routinely in other similar regulatory applications to inform decisions, and they have been instrumental in building our current understanding of the fate of persistent organic pollutants (POP) and persistent, bioaccumulative, and toxic (PBT) chemicals in the environment. The goal of this publication is to motivate the use of fate and exposure models in preparing risk profiles in the POP assessment procedure by providing strategies for incorporating and using models. The ways that fate and exposure models can be used to improve and inform the development of risk profiles include 1) benchmarking the ratio of exposure and emissions of candidate chemicals to the same ratio for known POPs, thereby opening the possibility of combining this ratio with the relative emissions and relative toxicity to arrive at a measure of relative risk; 2) directly estimating the exposure of the environment, biota, and humans to provide information to complement measurements or where measurements are not available or are limited; 3) to identify the key processes and chemical or environmental parameters that determine the exposure, thereby allowing the effective prioritization of research or measurements to improve the risk profile; and 4) forecasting future time trends, including how quickly exposure levels in remote areas would respond to reductions in emissions. Currently there is no standardized consensus model for use in the risk profile context. Therefore, to choose the appropriate model the risk profile developer must evaluate how appropriate an existing model is for a specific setting and

Cumulative Risk Assessment (CRA): transforming the way we assess health risks.

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, Pamela R D; Dotson, G Scott; Maier, Andrew

2012-10-16

Human health risk assessments continue to evolve and now focus on the need for cumulative risk assessment (CRA). CRA involves assessing the combined risk from coexposure to multiple chemical and nonchemical stressors for varying health effects. CRAs are broader in scope than traditional chemical risk assessments because they allow for a more comprehensive evaluation of the interaction between different stressors and their combined impact on human health. Future directions of CRA include greater emphasis on local-level community-based assessments; integrating environmental, occupational, community, and individual risk factors; and identifying and implementing common frameworks and risk metrics for incorporating multiple stressors.

Prediction of incidence and stability of alcohol use disorders by latent internalizing psychopathology risk profiles in adolescence and young adulthood.

Science.gov (United States)

Behrendt, Silke; Bühringer, Gerhard; Höfler, Michael; Lieb, Roselind; Beesdo-Baum, Katja

2017-10-01

Comorbid internalizing mental disorders in alcohol use disorders (AUD) can be understood as putative independent risk factors for AUD or as expressions of underlying shared psychopathology vulnerabilities. However, it remains unclear whether: 1) specific latent internalizing psychopathology risk-profiles predict AUD-incidence and 2) specific latent internalizing comorbidity-profiles in AUD predict AUD-stability. To investigate baseline latent internalizing psychopathology risk profiles as predictors of subsequent AUD-incidence and -stability in adolescents and young adults. Data from the prospective-longitudinal EDSP study (baseline age 14-24 years) were used. The study-design included up to three follow-up assessments in up to ten years. DSM-IV mental disorders were assessed with the DIA-X/M-CIDI. To investigate risk-profiles and their associations with AUD-outcomes, latent class analysis with auxiliary outcome variables was applied. AUD-incidence: a 4-class model (N=1683) was identified (classes: normative-male [45.9%], normative-female [44.2%], internalizing [5.3%], nicotine dependence [4.5%]). Compared to the normative-female class, all other classes were associated with a higher risk of subsequent incident alcohol dependence (p<0.05). AUD-stability: a 3-class model (N=1940) was identified with only one class (11.6%) with high probabilities for baseline AUD. This class was further characterized by elevated substance use disorder (SUD) probabilities and predicted any subsequent AUD (OR 8.5, 95% CI 5.4-13.3). An internalizing vulnerability may constitute a pathway to AUD incidence in adolescence and young adulthood. In contrast, no indication for a role of internalizing comorbidity profiles in AUD-stability was found, which may indicate a limited importance of such profiles - in contrast to SUD-related profiles - in AUD stability. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Risk profiles for heavy drinking in adolescence: differential effects of gender.

Science.gov (United States)

Seo, Sambu; Beck, Anne; Matthis, Caroline; Genauck, Alexander; Banaschewski, Tobias; Bokde, Arun L W; Bromberg, Uli; Büchel, Christian; Quinlan, Erin Burke; Flor, Herta; Frouin, Vincent; Garavan, Hugh; Gowland, Penny; Ittermann, Bernd; Martinot, Jean-Luc; Paillère Martinot, Marie-Laure; Nees, Frauke; Papadopoulos Orfanos, Dimitri; Poustka, Luise; Hohmann, Sarah; Fröhner, Juliane H; Smolka, Michael N; Walter, Henrik; Whelan, Robert; Desrivières, Sylvane; Heinz, Andreas; Schumann, Gunter; Obermayer, Klaus

2018-05-30

Abnormalities across different domains of neuropsychological functioning may constitute a risk factor for heavy drinking during adolescence and for developing alcohol use disorders later in life. However, the exact nature of such multi-domain risk profiles is unclear, and it is further unclear whether these risk profiles differ between genders. We combined longitudinal and cross-sectional analyses on the large IMAGEN sample (N ≈ 1000) to predict heavy drinking at age 19 from gray matter volume as well as from psychosocial data at age 14 and 19-for males and females separately. Heavy drinking was associated with reduced gray matter volume in 19-year-olds' bilateral ACC, MPFC, thalamus, middle, medial and superior OFC as well as left amygdala and anterior insula and right inferior OFC. Notably, this lower gray matter volume associated with heavy drinking was stronger in females than in males. In both genders, we observed that impulsivity and facets of novelty seeking at the age of 14 and 19, as well as hopelessness at the age of 14, are risk factors for heavy drinking at the age of 19. Stressful life events with internal (but not external) locus of control were associated with heavy drinking only at age 19. Personality and stress assessment in adolescents may help to better target counseling and prevention programs. This might reduce heavy drinking in adolescents and hence reduce the risk of early brain atrophy, especially in females. In turn, this could additionally reduce the risk of developing alcohol use disorders later in adulthood. © 2018 Society for the Study of Addiction.

78 FR 66010 - Draft Risk Profile on Pathogens and Filth in Spices; Availability

Science.gov (United States)

2013-11-04

...] Draft Risk Profile on Pathogens and Filth in Spices; Availability AGENCY: Food and Drug Administration... availability of a draft risk profile entitled ``FDA Draft Risk Profile: Pathogens and Filth in Spices'' (draft... posed by consumption of spices in the United States by identifying the most commonly occurring microbial...

Task profile and risk of occupational hepatitis A infection in sewerage workers.

Science.gov (United States)

Nuebling, M; Hofmann, F

2001-10-01

The aim of the study was to assess to what extent parameters of task-related occupational exposure influence anti-hepatitis A virus (anti-HAV) seroprevalence in sewerage workers, using a new instrument for classification of exposure. A new instrument for the assessment of work-related infection hazards was developed based on expert interviews, evaluation of literature and theoretical considerations. It was included in a questionnaire for collecting detailed information on occupational exposure, safety awareness, safety behaviour and socio-demography. Anti-HAV status was assessed for all (n = 343) (non-vaccinated) study participants. Marked differences in task profile and task-related exposure within the group of sewerage workers were found, underlining the necessity of a detailed exposure analysis. In a multivariate model three risk factors that were related significantly to anti-HAV positivity were identified: age, country of origin and task-related exposure. Since task profiles and occupational exposure differ strongly within the job category of sewerage workers. evaluation of endangerment has to reflect individual task-related exposure. The task-exposure matrix developed and presented in this study is a practicable and valid instrument for exposure assessment and may be used for the exposure analysis of further biological agents in this working environment. Besides the known risk parameters age and origin, our study demonstrates a dose-response relationship between the degree of occupational exposure and the anti-HAV seroprevalence. Therefore, an effective worksite HAV-prevention programme should consider all technical, structural and educational measures that help to reduce individual exposure.

Risk profiles of personality traits for suicidality among mood disorder patients and community controls.

Science.gov (United States)

Su, M-H; Chen, H-C; Lu, M-L; Feng, J; Chen, I-M; Wu, C-S; Chang, S-W; Kuo, P-H

2018-01-01

To examine the associations between personality traits and suicidal ideation (SI) and attempt (SA) in mood disorder patients and community controls. We recruited 365 bipolar, 296 major depressive disorder patients, and 315 community controls to assess their lifetime suicidality. Participants filled out self-reported personality questionnaires to collect data of personality traits, including novelty seeking (NS), harm avoidance (HA), extraversion (E), and neuroticism (N). We used logistic regression models adjusted for diagnoses to analyze combinational effects of personality traits on the risk of suicide. Additionally, radar charts display personality profiles for suicidal behaviours by groups. All personality traits were associated with the risk of suicidality with various effect size, except for E that showed protective effect. High N or HA had prominent and independent risk effects on SI and SA. Combinations of high N and low E, or high HA and NS were the risk personality profiles for suicidality. Higher N scores further distinguished SA from SI in mood disorder patients. Introvert personality traits showed independent risk effects on suicidality regardless of diagnosis status. Among high-risk individuals with suicidal thoughts, higher neuroticism tendency is further associated with increased risk of suicide attempt. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Risk Profile of Hepatitis E Virus from Pigs or Pork in Canada.

Science.gov (United States)

Wilhelm, B; Fazil, A; Rajić, A; Houde, A; McEwen, S A

2017-12-01

The role and importance of pigs and pork as sources of zoonotic hepatitis E virus (HEV) has been debated in Canada and abroad for over 20 years. To further investigate this question, we compiled data to populate a risk profile for HEV in pigs or pork in Canada. We organized the risk profile (RP) using the headings prescribed for a foodborne microbial risk assessment and used research synthesis methods and inputs wherever possible in populating the fields of this RP. A scoping review of potential public health risks of HEV, and two Canadian field surveys sampling finisher pigs, and retail pork chops and pork livers, provided inputs to inform this RP. We calculated summary estimates of prevalence using the Comprehensive Meta-analysis 3 software, employing the method of moments. Overall, we found the incidence of sporadic locally acquired hepatitis E in Canada, compiled from peer-reviewed literature or from diagnosis at the National Microbiology Laboratory to be low relative to other non-endemic countries. In contrast, we found the prevalence of detection of HEV RNA in pigs and retail pork livers, to be comparable to that reported in the USA and Europe. We drafted risk categories (high/medium/low) for acquiring clinical hepatitis E from exposure to pigs or pork in Canada and hypothesize that the proportion of the Canadian population at high risk from either exposure is relatively small. © 2016 Crown copyright.

Psychological profiles and emotional regulation characteristics of women engaged in risk-taking sports.

Science.gov (United States)

Cazenave, Nicolas; Le Scanff, Christine; Woodman, Tim

2007-12-01

We investigated the psychological profiles and emotional regulation characteristics of women involved in risk-taking sports. The research sample (N=180) consisted of three groups of women engaged in: (1) non-risk sports (N=90); (2) risk-taking sports for leisure purposes (N=53); or (3) risk-taking sports as professionals (N=37). Each participant completed five questionnaires, the Sensation Seeking Scale, the Bem Sex Role Inventory, the Barratt Impulsiveness Scale, Risk & Excitement Inventory, and the Toronto Alexithymia Scale. The results revealed significant differences between the groups' profiles. Of particular interest are the differences that exist between the profiles of Group 2 (escape profile, masculine gender identity, and high scores on sensation seeking, impulsivity, alexithymia) and Group 3 (compensation profile, androgynous gender identity, average score on sensation seeking, and low scores on impulsivity, alexithymia). We propose that the professional woman might be considered a model for preventing destructive risk-taking behaviors.

Lateral facial profile may reveal the risk for sleep disordered breathing in children--the PANIC-study.

Science.gov (United States)

Ikävalko, Tiina; Närhi, Matti; Lakka, Timo; Myllykangas, Riitta; Tuomilehto, Henri; Vierola, Anu; Pahkala, Riitta

2015-01-01

To evaluate the lateral view photography of the face as a tool for assessing morphological properties (i.e. facial convexity) as a risk factor for sleep disordered breathing (SDB) in children and to test how reliably oral health and non-oral healthcare professionals can visually discern the lateral profile of the face from the photographs. The present study sample consisted of 382 children 6-8 years of age who were participants in the Physical Activity and Nutrition in Children (PANIC) Study. Sleep was assessed by a sleep questionnaire administered by the parents. SDB was defined as apnoeas, frequent or loud snoring or nocturnal mouth breathing observed by the parents. The facial convexity was assessed with three different methods. First, it was clinically evaluated by the reference orthodontist (T.I.). Second, lateral view photographs were taken to visually sub-divide the facial profile into convex, normal or concave. The photos were examined by a reference orthodontist and seven different healthcare professionals who work with children and also by a dental student. The inter- and intra-examiner consistencies were calculated by Kappa statistics. Three soft tissue landmarks of the facial profile, soft tissue Glabella (G`), Subnasale (Sn) and soft tissue Pogonion (Pg`) were digitally identified to analyze convexity of the face and the intra-examiner reproducibility of the reference orthodontist was determined by calculating intra-class correlation coefficients (ICCs). The third way to express the convexity of the face was to calculate the angle of facial convexity (G`-Sn-Pg`) and to group it into quintiles. For analysis the lowest quintile (≤164.2°) was set to represent the most convex facial profile. The prevalence of the SDB in children with the most convex profiles expressed with the lowest quintile of the angle G`-Sn-Pg` (≤164.2°) was almost 2-fold (14.5%) compared to those with normal profile (8.1%) (p = 0.084). The inter-examiner Kappa values between the

Cardiovascular risk-benefit profile of sibutramine.

Science.gov (United States)

Scheen, A J

2010-01-01

Sibutramine is a combined norepinephrine and serotonin reuptake inhibitor used as an antiobesity agent to reduce appetite and promote weight loss in combination with diet and exercise. At a daily dose of 10-20 mg, it was initially considered to have a good safety profile, as it does not induce primary pulmonary hypertension or adverse effects on cardiac valves, in contrast to previous reports relating to some other antiobesity agents. However, it exerts disparate effects on cardiovascular risk factors. On the one hand, sibutramine may have antiatherogenic activities, as it improves insulin resistance, glucose metabolism, dyslipidemia, and inflammatory markers, with most of these effects resulting from weight loss rather than from an intrinsic effect of the drug. On the other hand, because of its specific mode of action, sibutramine exerts a peripheral sympathomimetic effect, which induces a moderate increase in heart rate and attenuates the reduction in BP attributable to weight loss or even slightly increases BP. It may also prolong the QT interval, an effect that could induce arrhythmias. Because of these complex effects, it is difficult to conclude what the final impact of sibutramine on cardiovascular outcomes might be. Sibutramine has been shown to exert favorable effects on some surrogate cardiovascular endpoints such as reduction of left ventricular hypertrophy and improvement of endothelial dysfunction. A good cardiovascular safety profile was demonstrated in numerous 1- to 2-year controlled trials, in both diabetic and nondiabetic well selected patients, as well as in several observational studies. However, since 2002, several cardiovascular adverse events (hypertension, tachycardia, arrhythmias, and myocardial infarction) have been reported in sibutramine-treated patients. This led to a contraindication of the use of this antiobesity agent in patients with established coronary heart disease, previous stroke, heart failure, or cardiac arrhythmias. SCOUT

The profile of quantitative risk indicators in Krsko NPP

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vrbanic, I.; Basic, I.; Bilic-Zabric, T.; Spiler, J.

2004-01-01

During the past decade strong initiative was observed which was aimed at incorporating information on risk into various aspects of operation of nuclear power plants. The initiative was observable in activities carried out by regulators as well as utilities and industry. It resulted in establishing the process, or procedure, which is often referred to as integrated decision making or risk informed decision making. In this process, engineering analyses and evaluations that are usually termed traditional and that rely on considerations of safety margins and defense in depth are supplemented by quantitative indicators of risk. Throughout the process, the plant risk was most commonly expressed in terms of likelihood of events involving damage to the reactor core and events with radiological releases to the environment. These became two commonly used quantitative indicators or metrics of plant risk (or, reciprocally, plant safety). They were evaluated for their magnitude (e.g. the expected number of events per specified time interval), as well as their profile (e.g. the types of contributing events). The information for quantitative risk indicators (to be used in risk informing process) is obtained from plant's probabilistic safety analyses or analyses of hazards. It is dependable on issues such as availability of input data or quality of model or analysis. Nuclear power plant Krsko has recently performed Periodic Safety Review, which was a good opportunity to evaluate and integrate the plant specific information on quantitative plant risk indicators and their profile. The paper discusses some aspects of quantitative plant risk profile and its perception.(author)

Establishing a family risk assessment clinic for breast cancer.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Mulsow, Jurgen

2012-02-01

Breast cancer is the most common cancer affecting European women and the leading cause of cancer-related death. A total of 15-20% of women who develop breast cancer have a family history and 5-10% a true genetic predisposition. The identification and screening of women at increased risk may allow early detection of breast cancer and improve prognosis. We established a family risk assessment clinic in May 2005 to assess and counsel women with a family history of breast cancer, to initiate surveillance, and to offer risk-reducing strategies for selected high-risk patients. Patients at medium or high risk of developing breast cancer according to NICE guidelines were accepted. Family history was determined by structured questionnaire and interview. Lifetime risk of developing breast cancer was calculated using Claus and Tyrer-Cuzick scoring. Risk of carrying a breast cancer-related gene mutation was calculated using the Manchester system. One thousand two hundred and forty-three patients have been referred. Ninety-two percent were at medium or high risk of developing breast cancer. Formal assessment of risk has been performed in 368 patients, 73% have a high lifetime risk of developing breast cancer, and 72% a Manchester score >or=16. BRCA1\\/2 mutations have been identified in 14 patients and breast cancer diagnosed in two. Our initial experience of family risk assessment has shown there to be a significant demand for this service. Identification of patients at increased risk of developing breast cancer allows us to provide individuals with accurate risk profiles, and enables patients to make informed choices regarding their follow-up and management.

Operational risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

McKim, Vicky L

2017-06-01

In the world of risk management, which encompasses the business continuity disciplines, many types of risk require evaluation. Financial risk is most often the primary focus, followed by product and market risks. Another critical area, which typically lacks a thorough review or may be overlooked, is operational risk. This category encompasses many risk exposure types including those around building structures and systems, environmental issues, nature, neighbours, clients, regulatory compliance, network, data security and so on. At times, insurance carriers will assess internal hazards, but seldom do these assessments include more than a cursory look at other types of operational risk. In heavily regulated environments, risk assessments are required but may not always include thorough assessments of operational exposures. Vulnerabilities may linger or go unnoticed, only to become the catalyst for a business disruption at a later time, some of which are so severe that business recovery becomes nearly impossible. Businesses may suffer loss of clients as the result of a prolonged disruption of services. Comprehensive operational risk assessments can assist in identifying such vulnerabilities, exposures and threats so that the risk can be minimised or removed. This paper lays out how an assessment of this type can be successfully conducted.

Risk Profiles for Falls among Older Adults: New Directions for Prevention

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

William A. Satariano

2017-08-01

Full Text Available ObjectiveTo address whether neighborhood factors, together with older adults’ levels of health and functioning, suggest new combinations of risk factors for falls and new directions for prevention. To explore the utility of Grade-of-Membership (GoM analysis to conduct this descriptive analysis.MethodThis is a cross-sectional, descriptive study of 884 people aged ≥65 years from Alameda County, CA, Cook County, IL, Allegheny County, PA, and Wake and Durham counties, NC. Interviews focused on neighborhood characteristics, physical and cognitive function, walking, and falls and injuries. Four risk profiles (higher order interactions of individual and neighborhood factors were derived from GoM analysis.ResultsProfiles 1 and 2 reflect previous results showing that frail older adults are likely to fall indoors (Profile 1; healthy older adults are likely to fall outdoors (Profile 2. Profile 3 identifies the falls risk for older with mild cognitive impairment living in moderately walkable neighborhoods. Profile 4 identifies the risk found for healthy older adults living in neighborhoods with low walkability.DiscussionNeighborhood walkability, in combination with levels of health and functioning, is associated with both indoor and outdoor falls. Descriptive results suggest possible research hypotheses and new directions for prevention, based on individual and neighborhood factors.

Identifying measures to balance the risk profile of the Tihange 2 NPP

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

D'Eer, A.M.; Monniez, J.J.

2001-01-01

In Belgium, each Nuclear Power Plant is subject to a periodic safety reassessment. In this context, it was found to be desirable to perform a Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) in support of the ten yearly back-fitting process. The Tihange 2 NPP is a 3-loop PWR having a thermal capacity of 2905 MW. Analysis of the plant's risk profile shows that implementing feasible measures for improvement of the shutdown risk, would be beneficial. This is because a configuration leading to significant risk, namely cold pressurization when the residual heat removal system is lost during reduced primary inventory, thus can be avoided. As a result the risk between reactor shutdown and power operation will be balanced. The presentation describes the lessons learnt regarding the Tihange 2 shutdown PSA model and the expected benefits following implementation of one of the proposed measures. (author)

Risk assessment approach for Rokkasho reprocessing plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ootou, Y.; Tamauchi, Y.; Hayashi, Y.; Takebe, K.; Miyata, T.

2006-01-01

for various types of equipment and piping and for operations performed by operators, and was obtained through sensitivity analysis, such as the influence of change in the maintenance periods of the occurrence frequency. This information might be of use for operation management. On the other hand, in order to have grasp of the risk profile at a reprocessing plant and in order for us to make good use of the risk information, it is also necessary to conduct risk assessments for incidents other than major accidents. Since it is appropriate to use a Graded Approach to assess the risks of such a large number of incidents effectively and efficiently, a simplified method, called ''improved risk index method'' was developed. It based on the Risk Index Method recommended by U.S. NRC. The Risk Index Method is simple and is appropriate for fuel cycle facilities where a wide variety of accidents may occur, but it is characterized by the fact that it requires engineering judgments by analysts when assessing the occurrence frequency, and the common components between the safety measures (the subordinacy) are difficult to clarify. In order to solve the problems inherent in the Risk Index Method, quantification, flexibility and traceability have been improved while maintaining its advantages. Currently, risk assessments for a wide variety of incidents and accidents are being conducted using the above mentioned methods and their results will be used for the improvement of operation management. Furthermore, risk assessments for external incidents (earthquakes, etc.) are being planned

Managing industrial risk--having a tested and proven system to prevent and assess risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Heller, Stephen

2006-03-17

Some relatively easy techniques exist to improve the risk picture/profile to aid in preventing losses. Today with the advent of computer system resources, focusing on specific aspects of risk through systematic scoring and comparison, the risk analysis can be relatively easy to achieve. Techniques like these demonstrate how working experience and common sense can be combined mathematically into a flexible risk management tool or risk model for analyzing risk. The risk assessment methodology provided by companies today is no longer the ideas and practices of one group or even one company. It is reflective of the practice of many companies, as well as the ideas and expertise of academia and government regulators. The use of multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) techniques for making critical decisions has been recognized for many years for a variety of purposes. In today's computer age, the easy accessing and user-friendly nature for using these techniques, makes them a favorable choice for use in the risk assessment environment. The new user of these methodologies should find many ideas directly applicable to his or her needs when approaching risk decision making. The user should find their ideas readily adapted, with slight modification, to accurately reflect a specific situation using MCDM techniques. This makes them an attractive feature for use in assessment and risk modeling. The main advantage of decision making techniques, such as MCDM, is that in the early stages of a risk assessment, accurate data on industrial risk, and failures are lacking. In most cases, it is still insufficient to perform a thorough risk assessment using purely statistical concepts. The practical advantages towards deviating from strict data-driven protocol seem to outweigh the drawbacks. Industry failure data often comes at a high cost when a loss occurs. We can benefit from this unfortunate acquisition of data through the continuous refining of our decisions by incorporating this new

Bank Diversification Effects on Bank Performance and Risk Profile of Bank in Indonesia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anthony Lukmawijaya

2015-05-01

Full Text Available We investigate the relationship of Indonesian bank diversification towards its long term performance and risk profile with Indonesian bank data from 2009 to 2013. Non-interest income to total operating income of the bank measures its bank diversification level. Bank value is measured by the adjusted Tobin's Q and risk profile which is broken down into total risk, idiosyncratic risk, and systematic risk. The result shows that bank non-interest income diversification has a positive influence on its franchise value. There is, however, no strong evidence that diversification can lower a bank's risk profile.

Metabolite Profiles of Diabetes Risk

OpenAIRE

Gerszten, Robert E.

2013-01-01

Metabolic diseases present particular difficulty for clinicians because they are often present for years before becoming clinically apparent. We investigated whether metabolite profiles can predict the development of diabetes in the Framingham Heart Study. Five branched-chain and aromatic amino acids had highly-significant associations with future diabetes, while a combination of three amino acids strongly predicted future diabetes by up to 12 years (>5-fold increased risk for individuals in ...

Hepatitis Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

... please visit this page: About CDC.gov . Hepatitis Risk Assessment Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir Viral Hepatitis. Are you at risk? Take this 5 minute Hepatitis Risk Assessment developed ...

Clinical profile of high-risk febrile neutropenia in a tertiary care hospital

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohan V Bhojaraja

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Background Infection in the immunocompromised host has been a reason of concern in the clinical setting and a topic of debate for decades. In this study, the aim was to analyse the clinical profile of high-risk febrile neutropenic patients. Aims To study the clinical profile of high risk febrile neutropenia patients with the objective of identifying the most common associated malignancy, most common associated pathogen, the source of infection, to correlate the treatment and management with that of the Infectious Diseases Society of America (IDSA 2010 guidelines and to assess the clinical outcome. Methods A cross-sectional time bound study was carried out and a total of 80 episodes of high-risk febrile neutropenia were recorded among patients with malignancies from September 2011 to July 2013 with each episode being taken as a new case. Results Non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma (30 per cent was the most common malignancy associated, commonest source of infection was due to central venous catheters, the commonest pathogens were gram negative (52 per cent the treatment and management of each episode of high risk febrile neutropenia correlated with that of IDSA 2010 guidelines and the mortality rate was 13.75 per cent. Conclusion Febrile neutropenia is one of the major complications and cause of mortality in patients with malignancy and hence understanding its entire spectrum can help us reduce morbidity and mortality.

Assessment of Cardiovascular Disease Risk in South Asian Populations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Monira Hussain

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Although South Asian populations have high cardiovascular disease (CVD burden in the world, their patterns of individual CVD risk factors have not been fully studied. None of the available algorithms/scores to assess CVD risk have originated from these populations. To explore the relevance of CVD risk scores for these populations, literature search and qualitative synthesis of available evidence were performed. South Asians usually have higher levels of both “classical” and nontraditional CVD risk factors and experience these at a younger age. There are marked variations in risk profiles between South Asian populations. More than 100 risk algorithms are currently available, with varying risk factors. However, no available algorithm has included all important risk factors that underlie CVD in these populations. The future challenge is either to appropriately calibrate current risk algorithms or ideally to develop new risk algorithms that include variables that provide an accurate estimate of CVD risk.

GM Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Sparrow, Penny A. C.

GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all ‘what if’ scenarios, based on scientific evidence.

Osteosarcopenic Visceral Obesity and Osteosarcopenic Subcutaneous Obesity, Two New Phenotypes of Sarcopenia: Prevalence, Metabolic Profile, and Risk Factors

Science.gov (United States)

Spadaccini, Daniele; Nichetti, Mara; Avanzato, Ilaria; Faliva, Milena Anna

2018-01-01

Background The main criticism of the definition of “osteosarcopenic obesity” (OSO) is the lack of division between subcutaneous and visceral fat. This study describes the prevalence, metabolic profile, and risk factors of two new phenotypes of sarcopenia: osteosarcopenic visceral obesity (OSVAT) and osteosarcopenic subcutaneous obesity (OSSAT). Methods A standardized geriatric assessment was performed by anthropometric and biochemical measures. Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) was used to assess body composition, visceral adipose tissue (VAT), subcutaneous adipose tissue (SAT), osteoporosis, and sarcopenia. Results A sample of 801 subjects were assessed (247 men; 554 women). The prevalence of osteosarcopenic obesity (OSO) was 6.79%; OSSAT and OSOVAT were, respectively, 2.22% and 4.56%. OSVAT (versus the others) showed a higher level of inflammation (CRP and ESR, p < 0.05), bilirubin (p < 0.05), and risk of fractures (FRAX index over 15%, p < 0.001). Subjects with OSSAT did not show any significant risk factors associated to obesity. Conclusions The osteosarcopenic visceral obesity phenotype (OSVAT) seems to be associated with a higher risk of fractures, inflammation, and a worse metabolic profile. These conditions in OSVAT cohort are associated with an increase of visceral adipose tissue, while patients with OSSAT seem to benefit related to the “obesity paradox”. PMID:29862078

Risk Assessment of the Main Control Room Fire Using Fire Simulations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kang, Dae Il; Kim, Kilyoo; Jang, Seung Cheol

2013-01-01

KAERI is performing a fire PSA for a reference plant, Ulchin Unit 3, as part of developing the Korean site risk profile (KSRP). Fire simulations of the MCR fire were conducted using the CFAST (Consolidated Fire Growth and Smoke Transport) model and FDS (fire dynamic simulator) to improve the uncertainty in the MCR fire risk analysis. Using the fire simulation results, the MCR abandonment risk was evaluated. Level 1 PSA (probabilistic safety assessment) results of Ulchin Unit 3 using the EPRI PRA (probabilistic risk assessment) implementation guide showed that the MCR (main control room) fire was the main contributor to the core damage frequency. Recently, U. S. NRC and EPRI developed NUREG/CR-6850 to provide state-of-the-art methods, tools, and data for the conduct of a fire PSA for a commercial NPP

The Role of Risk: Mentoring Experiences and Outcomes for Youth with Varying Risk Profiles

Science.gov (United States)

Herrera, Carla; DuBois, David L.; Grossman, Jean Baldwin

2013-01-01

"The Role of Risk: Mentoring Experiences and Outcomes for Youth with Varying Risk Profiles" presents findings from the first large-scale study to examine how the levels and types of risk youth face may influence their relationships with program-assigned mentors and the benefits they derive from these relationships. The study looked…

Use of information resources by the state of Tennessee in risk assessment applications

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bashor, B.S. [Tennessee Department of Health and Environment, Nashville (United States)

1990-12-31

The major resources used by the Bureau of Environment, and Environmental Epidemiology (EEP) for risk assessment are: the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS), Health and Environmental Effects Summary Table (HEAST), Agency for Toxic Substances and disease Registry (ATSDR) Toxicological Profiles, databases at the National Library of Medicine (NLM), World Health Organization (WHO) ENvironmental Criteria, and documents that the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has published on Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA) risk assessment activities. The Risk Assessment Review has been helpful in providing information about availability of new documents or information. No systematic method has been made available to us to locate information resources. IRIS User`s Support has been helpful in making appropriate and timely referrals. Most other EPA resources were located by serendipity and persistence. The CERCLA methodology for risk assessments is being used in environmental programs, and at present, one person is responsible for all risk assessment activities in the department, but plans are underway to train one or two people from each program area. 2 figs.

Normal Weight but Low Muscle Mass and Abdominally Obese: Implications for the Cardiometabolic Risk Profile in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Beijers, Rosanne J H C G; van de Bool, Coby; van den Borst, Bram; Franssen, Frits M E; Wouters, Emiel F M; Schols, Annemie M W J

2017-06-01

It is well established that low muscle mass affects physical performance in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). We hypothesize that combined low muscle mass and abdominal obesity may also adversely influence the cardiometabolic risk profile in COPD, even in those with normal weight. The cardiometabolic risk profile and the responsiveness to 4 months high-intensity exercise training was assessed in normal-weight patients with COPD with low muscle mass stratified by abdominal obesity. This is a cross-sectional study including 81 clinically stable patients with COPD (age 62.5 ± 8.2 years; 50.6% males; forced expiratory volume in 1 second 55.1 ± 19.5 percentage predicted) with fat-free mass index risk profile. Triglycerides showed a significant decrease, while the HOMA-IR increased. Abdominal obesity is highly prevalent in normal-weight patients with COPD with low muscle mass who showed an increased cardiometabolic risk compared with patients without abdominal obesity. This cardiometabolic risk profile was not altered after 4 months of exercise training. Copyright © 2017 AMDA – The Society for Post-Acute and Long-Term Care Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Offshore risk assessment

CERN Document Server

Vinnem, Jan-Erik

2014-01-01

  Offshore Risk Assessment was the first book to deal with quantified risk assessment (QRA) as applied specifically to offshore installations and operations. Risk assessment techniques have been used for more than three decades in the offshore oil and gas industry, and their use is set to expand increasingly as the industry moves into new areas and faces new challenges in older regions.   This updated and expanded third edition has been informed by a major R&D program on offshore risk assessment in Norway and summarizes research from 2006 to the present day. Rooted with a thorough discussion of risk metrics and risk analysis methodology,  subsequent chapters are devoted to analytical approaches to escalation, escape, evacuation and rescue analysis of safety and emergency systems.   Separate chapters analyze the main hazards of offshore structures: fire, explosion, collision, and falling objects as well as structural and marine hazards. Risk mitigation and control are discussed, as well as an illustrat...

Update earthquake risk assessment in Cairo, Egypt

Science.gov (United States)

Badawy, Ahmed; Korrat, Ibrahim; El-Hadidy, Mahmoud; Gaber, Hanan

2017-07-01

The Cairo earthquake (12 October 1992; m b = 5.8) is still and after 25 years one of the most painful events and is dug into the Egyptians memory. This is not due to the strength of the earthquake but due to the accompanied losses and damages (561 dead; 10,000 injured and 3000 families lost their homes). Nowadays, the most frequent and important question that should rise is "what if this earthquake is repeated today." In this study, we simulate the same size earthquake (12 October 1992) ground motion shaking and the consequent social-economic impacts in terms of losses and damages. Seismic hazard, earthquake catalogs, soil types, demographics, and building inventories were integrated into HAZUS-MH to produce a sound earthquake risk assessment for Cairo including economic and social losses. Generally, the earthquake risk assessment clearly indicates that "the losses and damages may be increased twice or three times" in Cairo compared to the 1992 earthquake. The earthquake risk profile reveals that five districts (Al-Sahel, El Basateen, Dar El-Salam, Gharb, and Madinat Nasr sharq) lie in high seismic risks, and three districts (Manshiyat Naser, El-Waily, and Wassat (center)) are in low seismic risk level. Moreover, the building damage estimations reflect that Gharb is the highest vulnerable district. The analysis shows that the Cairo urban area faces high risk. Deteriorating buildings and infrastructure make the city particularly vulnerable to earthquake risks. For instance, more than 90 % of the estimated buildings damages are concentrated within the most densely populated (El Basateen, Dar El-Salam, Gharb, and Madinat Nasr Gharb) districts. Moreover, about 75 % of casualties are in the same districts. Actually, an earthquake risk assessment for Cairo represents a crucial application of the HAZUS earthquake loss estimation model for risk management. Finally, for mitigation, risk reduction, and to improve the seismic performance of structures and assure life safety

Pathway index models for construction of patient-specific risk profiles.

Science.gov (United States)

Eng, Kevin H; Wang, Sijian; Bradley, William H; Rader, Janet S; Kendziorski, Christina

2013-04-30

Statistical methods for variable selection, prediction, and classification have proven extremely useful in moving personalized genomics medicine forward, in particular, leading to a number of genomic-based assays now in clinical use for predicting cancer recurrence. Although invaluable in individual cases, the information provided by these assays is limited. Most often, a patient is classified into one of very few groups (e.g., recur or not), limiting the potential for truly personalized treatment. Furthermore, although these assays provide information on which individuals are at most risk (e.g., those for which recurrence is predicted), they provide no information on the aberrant biological pathways that give rise to the increased risk. We have developed an approach to address these limitations. The approach models a time-to-event outcome as a function of known biological pathways, identifies important genomic aberrations, and provides pathway-based patient-specific assessments of risk. As we demonstrate in a study of ovarian cancer from The Cancer Genome Atlas project, the patient-specific risk profiles are powerful and efficient characterizations useful in addressing a number of questions related to identifying informative patient subtypes and predicting survival. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Aging and Cardiometabolic Risk in European HEMS Pilots: An Assessment of Occupational Old-Age Limits as a Regulatory Risk Management Strategy.

Science.gov (United States)

Bauer, Hans; Nowak, Dennis; Herbig, Britta

2017-12-11

Old-age limits are imposed in some occupations in an effort to ensure public safety. In aviation, the "Age 60 Rule" limits permissible flight operations conducted by pilots aged 60 and over. Using a retrospective cohort design, we assessed this rule's validity by comparing age-related change rates of cardiometabolic incapacitation risk markers in European helicopter emergency medical service (HEMS) pilots near age 60 with those in younger pilots. Specifically, individual clinical, laboratory, and electrocardiogram (ECG)-based risk markers and an overall cardiovascular event risk score were determined from aeromedical examination records of 66 German, Austrian, Polish, and Czech HEMS pilots (average follow-up 8.52 years). Risk marker change rates were assessed using linear mixed models and generalized additive models. Body mass index increases over time were slower in pilots near age 60 compared to younger pilots, and fasting glucose levels increased only in the latter. Whereas the lipid profile remained unchanged in the latter, it improved in the former. An ECG-based arrhythmia risk marker increased in younger pilots, which persisted in the older pilots. Six-month risk of a fatal cardiovascular event (in or out of cockpit) was estimated between 0% and 0.3%. Between 41% and 95% of risk marker variability was due to unexplained time-stable between-person differences. To conclude, the cardiometabolic risk marker profile of HEMS pilots appears to improve over time in pilots near age 60, compared to younger pilots. Given large stable interindividual differences, we recommend individualized risk assessment of HEMS pilots near age 60 instead of general grounding. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Concept of risk: risk assessment and nuclear safety

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thompson, P.B.

1980-01-01

The dissertation is a critical examination of risk assessment and its role in public policy. Nuclear power safety safety issues are selected as the primary source of illustrations and examples. The dissertation examines how risk assessment studies develop a concept of risk which becomes decisive for policy choices. Risk-assessment techniques are interpreted as instruments which secure an evaluation of risk which, in turn, figures prominently in technical reports on nuclear power. The philosophical critique is mounted on two levels. First, an epistemological critique surveys distinctions between the technical concept of risk and more familiar senses of risk. The critique shows that utilization of risk assessment re-structures the concept of risk. The technical concept is contrasted to the function of risk within a decision-maker's conceptual agenda and hierarchy of values. Second, an ethical critique exposes the value commitments of risk assessment recommendations. Although some of these values might be defended for policy decisions, the technical character of risk assessment obfuscates normative issues. Risk assessment is shown to be a form of factual enquiry which, nonetheless, represents a commitment to a specific selection of ethical and social values. Risk assessment should not be interpreted as a primary guide to decision unless the specific values incorporated into its concept of risk are stated explicitly and justified philosophically. Such a statement would allow value questions which have been sublimated by the factual tone of the analytic techniques to be debated on clear, social and ethical grounds

Venous thromboembolism: Risk profile and management of ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Objectives. This study aims to describe the venous thromboembolism (VTE) risk profile of women undergoing elective gynaecological surgery in a tertiary hospital and to audit the VTE prophylaxis prescribed. Methods. One hundred and nine women who underwent elective gynaecological surgery at Kalafong Provincial ...

Cardiac profile and disruptive behavior in boys at risk for delinquency.

Science.gov (United States)

Pine, D S; Wasserman, G; Coplan, J; Staghezza-Jaramillo, B; Davies, M; Fried, J E; Greenhill, L; Shaffer, D

1996-01-01

The objective of this study was to examine associations in youth between antisocial behavior and cardiovascular profile. Younger brothers of adjudicated delinquents (N = 120) received a standardized psychiatric assessment and an assessment of three factors often studied in behavioral cardiology research: family history of hypertension, resting blood pressure, and obesity. As a group, relative to population norms, these youth exhibited signs of obesity and elevated blood pressure, with 30% of the sample appearing clinically obese and 24% having a blood pressure above the 90th percentile for national norms in their age cohort. Within the sample, score on the Child Behavior Checklist (CBCL) Delinquency scale correlated with blood pressure (r = .29-.34) and an index of obesity, weight/height3 (r = .20). Further, scores on the CBCL Delinquency, Aggression, and Externalizing scales were elevated in boys with a positive family history of hypertension. Among boys at risk for delinquency, disruptive psychopathology relates to factors often studied in behavioral cardiology research. Relationships between risk factors for ischemic cardiovascular disease and hostile behavior may be manifested with measures of disruptive psychopathology.

Dutch Risk Assessment tools

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Venema, A.

2015-01-01

The ‘Risico- Inventarisatie- en Evaluatie-instrumenten’ is the name for the Dutch risk assessment (RA) tools. A RA tool can be used to perform a risk assessment including an evaluation of the identified risks. These tools were among the first online risk assessment tools developed in Europe. The

Laparoscopic Roux-En-Y Gastric Bypass Improves Lipid Profile and Decreases Cardiovascular Risk: a 5-Year Longitudinal Cohort Study of 1048 Patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Gero, Daniel; Favre, Lucie; Allemann, Pierre; Fournier, Pierre; Demartines, Nicolas; Suter, Michel

2018-03-01

Dyslipidemia is a known risk factor for cardiovascular (CV) events. The aim of the study was to assess lipid profiles and their impact on CV risk changes in a large patient cohort 5 years after Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB). All patients who underwent primary RYGB for severe obesity in our two hospitals between January 1999 and December 2009 were included. The Framingham risk score was used. One thousand and forty-eight patients were included, 791 women and 257 men. Five-year complete lipid profile was available for 77% of patients. At 5 years, mean body mass index (BMI) decreased from 45.7 ± 6 to 31 ± 5.8 kg/m 2 (p profile improved more in patients with greater weight loss (%EBMIL ≥ 50 or %TWL ≥ 25%). Assuming that all patients were non-smokers and other baseline risk factors (hypertension, diabetes) remained unchanged at 5 years, the amelioration of the lipid profile itself yielded to a 27% reduction of CV risk (p profile from the first to fifth postoperative year. This improvement translates into significantly lower CV risk from the first year after surgery.

State of risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Conrad, J.

1978-03-01

In view of the growing importance assumed in recent years by scientific work on the calculation, quantification, evaluation and acceptance as well as behavior in the face of risks in general and more specifically, the risks of large industrial plants, the report attempts to provide a survey of the current situation, results and evaluation of this new branch of research, risk assessment. The emphasis of the report is on the basic discussion and criticism of the theoretical and methodological approaches used in the field of risk assessment (section 3). It is concerned above all with - methodical problems of determining and quantifying risks (3.1) - questions of the possibility of risk evaluation and comp arison (3.1, 3.2) - the premises of normative and empirical studies on decision making under risk (3.2, 3.3) - investigations into society's acceptance of risks involved in the introduction of new technologies (3.4) - attempts to combine various aspects of the field of risk assessment in a unified concept (3.5, 3.6, 3.7). Because risk assessment is embedded in the framework of decision theory and technology assessment, it can be implicitly evaluated at a more general level within this framework, as far as its possibilities and weaknesses of method and application are concerned (section 4). Sections 2 and 5 deal with the social context of origin and utilization of risk assessment. Finally, an attempt is made at a summary indicating the possible future development of risk assessment. (orig./HP) [de

The geriatric polytrauma: Risk profile and prognostic factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Rupprecht, Holger; Heppner, Hans Jürgen; Wohlfart, Kristina; Türkoglu, Alp

2017-03-01

In the German population, the percentage of elderly patients is increasing, and consequently there are more elderly patients among trauma cases, and particularly cases of polytrauma. The aim of this study was to present clinical results and a risk profile for geriatric polytrauma patients. Review of 140 geriatric (over 65 years of age) polytrauma patients who received prehospital treatment was performed. Severity of trauma was retrospectively assessed with Hannover Polytrauma Score (HPTS). Age, hemoglobin (Hb) level, systolic blood pressure (BP), Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score, timing of and necessity for intubation were analyzed in relation to mortality and in comparison with younger patients. Geriatric polytrauma patients (n=140) had overall mortality rate of 65%, whereas younger patients (n=1468) had mortality rate of 15.9%. Despite equivalent severity of injury (HPTS less age points) in geriatric and non-geriatric groups, mortality rate was 4 times higher in geriatric group. Major blood loss with Hb polytrauma patients. Additional risk factors include very low GCS score and systolic BP <80 mm Hg, for instance, as potential clinical indicators of massive bleeding and traumatic brain injury. Such parameters demand early and rapid treatment at prehospital stage and on admission.

Emotional profile and risk behaviours among tattooed and non-tattooed students

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Matea Zrno

2015-02-01

Full Text Available Aim To determine differences in emotional profile and frequencies of certain risk behaviours between tattooed and non-tattooed students. Methods One hundred students fulfilled personality assessment (trust, timid, depressive, distrust, aggressive, gregarious, controlled, uncontrolled and questionnaire of socio-demographic data that also included some questions about possession of tattoo (time, place, motive and about certain risk behaviours (court punishment, consummation of alcohol, psychoactive substances and cigarettes. Results The total number of 35 (out of 100 students had a tattoo, and 67 wished to have a tattoo. There was no statistically significant difference in emotional profile between tattooed and nontattooed individuals, yet the differences were detected when the group of subjects who wanted a tattoo and those who did not want a tattoo were compared. Higher result on the aggression scale of and lower on control scale was gained by those with the wish for tattooing. Students with bigger tattoos (23 showed higher score on depression scale. Students in the tattooed group more frequently abused drugs and committed traffic offences compared to the students in non-tattooed group. Conclusion Results of this research as well as previous research show that the presence of a tattoo could be a rough indicator for possible emotional problems and risk behaviour, which could have significant implications in preventing these behaviours. Future studies are required on a larger and more representative sample as well as to clarify why young people decide to be tattooed.

Risk assessment and risk management of mycotoxins.

Science.gov (United States)

2012-01-01

Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the magnitude and exposure, or probability, of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from certain agents or activities. Here, we summarize the four steps of risk assessment: hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Risk assessments using these principles have been conducted on the major mycotoxins (aflatoxins, fumonisins, ochratoxin A, deoxynivalenol, and zearalenone) by various regulatory agencies for the purpose of setting food safety guidelines. We critically evaluate the impact of these risk assessment parameters on the estimated global burden of the associated diseases as well as the impact of regulatory measures on food supply and international trade. Apart from the well-established risk posed by aflatoxins, many uncertainties still exist about risk assessments for the other major mycotoxins, often reflecting a lack of epidemiological data. Differences exist in the risk management strategies and in the ways different governments impose regulations and technologies to reduce levels of mycotoxins in the food-chain. Regulatory measures have very little impact on remote rural and subsistence farming communities in developing countries, in contrast to developed countries, where regulations are strictly enforced to reduce and/or remove mycotoxin contamination. However, in the absence of the relevant technologies or the necessary infrastructure, we highlight simple intervention practices to reduce mycotoxin contamination in the field and/or prevent mycotoxin formation during storage.

Assessment risk of osteoporosis in Chinese people: relationship among body mass index, serum lipid profiles, blood glucose, and bone mineral density

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cui RT

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Rongtao Cui,1 Lin Zhou,2 Zuohong Li,2 Qing Li,2 Zhiming Qi,2 Junyong Zhang3 1Department of Orthopedic and Trauma Surgery, Surgical Research, Duisburg-Essen University Hospital, Essen, Germany; 2Department of Orthopedics, Dalian Central Hospital, Dalian, 3Department of Gastroenterology, Shandong Provincial Hospital, Jinan, People’s Republic of China Objective: The aim of our study was to investigate the relationship among age, sex, body mass index (BMI, serum lipid profiles, blood glucose (BG, and bone mineral density (BMD, making an assessment of the risk of osteoporosis.Materials and methods: A total of 1,035 male and 3,953 female healthy volunteers (aged 41–95 years were recruited by an open invitation. The basic information, including age, sex, height, weight, waistline, hipline, menstrual cycle, and medical history, were collected by a questionnaire survey and physical examination. Serum lipid profiles, BG, postprandial blood glucose, and glycosylated hemoglobin were obtained after 12 hours fasting. BMD in lumbar spine was measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry scanning.Results: The age-adjusted BMD in females was significantly lower than in males. With aging, greater differences of BMD distribution exist in elderly females than in males (P<0.001, and the fastigium of bone mass loss was in the age range from 51 to 55 in females and from 61 to 65 years in males. After adjustment for sex, there were significant differences in BMD among BMI-stratified groups in both males and females. The subjects with a BMI of <18.5 had a higher incidence of osteoporosis than BMI ≥18.5 in both sexes. BMD in type 2 diabetes mellitus with a BG of >7.0 mmol/L was lower than in people with BG of ≤7.0 mmol/L (P<0.001. People with serum high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels of ≥1.56 mmol/L had a greater prevalence of osteoporosis compared with high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ≤1.55 mmol/L. Logistic regression with odds ratios showed that

Biosafety Risk Assessment Methodology

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Caskey, Susan Adele [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Gaudioso, Jennifer M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Salerno, Reynolds Mathewson [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Wagner, Stefan M. [Public Health Agency of Canada, Winnipeg, MB (Canada). Canadian Science Centre for Human and Animal Health (CSCHAH); Shigematsu, Mika [National Inst. of Infectious Diseases (NIID), Tokyo (Japan); Risi, George [Infectious Disease Specialists, P.C, Missoula, MT (United States); Kozlovac, Joe [US Dept. of Agriculture (USDA)., Beltsville, MD (United States); Halkjaer-Knudsen, Vibeke [Statens Serum Inst., Copenhagen (Denmark); Prat, Esmeralda [Bayer CropScience, Monheim am Rhein (Germany)

2010-10-01

Laboratories that work with biological agents need to manage their safety risks to persons working the laboratories and the human and animal community in the surrounding areas. Biosafety guidance defines a wide variety of biosafety risk mitigation measures, which include measures which fall under the following categories: engineering controls, procedural and administrative controls, and the use of personal protective equipment; the determination of which mitigation measures should be used to address the specific laboratory risks are dependent upon a risk assessment. Ideally, a risk assessment should be conducted in a manner which is standardized and systematic which allows it to be repeatable and comparable. A risk assessment should clearly define the risk being assessed and avoid over complication.

Determinants of attaining and maintaining a low cardiovascular risk profile--the Doetinchem Cohort Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Hulsegge, Gerben; van der Schouw, Yvonne T; Daviglus, Martha L; Smit, Henriëtte A; Verschuren, W M Monique

2016-02-01

While maintenance of a low cardiovascular risk profile is essential for cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention, few people maintain a low CVD risk profile throughout their life. We studied the association of demographic, lifestyle, psychological factors and family history of CVD with attainment and maintenance of a low risk profile over three subsequent 5-year periods. Measurements of 6390 adults aged 26-65 years at baseline were completed from 1993 to 97 and subsequently at 5-year intervals until 2013. At each wave, participants were categorized into low risk profile (ideal levels of blood pressure, cholesterol and body mass index, non-smoking and no diabetes) and medium/high risk profile (all others). Multivariable-adjusted modified Poisson regression analyses were used to examine determinants of attainment and maintenance of low risk; risk ratios (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were obtained. Generalized estimating equations were used to combine multiple 5-year comparisons. Younger age, female gender and high educational level were associated with higher likelihood of both maintaining and attaining low risk profile (P risk was 9% higher with each 1-unit increment in Mediterranean diet score (RR: 1.09, 95% CI: 1.02-1.16), twice as high with any physical activity versus none (RR: 2.17, 95% CI: 1.16-4.04) and 35% higher with moderate alcohol consumption versus heavy consumption (RR: 1.35, 95% CI: 1.06-1.73). Healthy lifestyle factors such as adherence to a Mediterranean diet, physical activity and moderate as opposed to heavy alcohol consumption were associated with a higher likelihood of attaining a low risk profile. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association. All rights reserved.

Workplace Health Promotion: Assessing the Cardiopulmonary Risks of the Construction Workforce in Hong Kong.

Science.gov (United States)

Tin, Sze Pui Pamela; Lam, Wendy W T; Yoon, Sungwon; Zhang, Na; Xia, Nan; Zhang, Weiwei; Ma, Ke; Fielding, Richard

2016-01-01

Health needs of different employee subgroups within an industry can differ. We report the results of a workplace cardiopulmonary risk assessment targeting workers and support staff in the construction industry. A free worksite-based cardiopulmonary risk assessment for 1,903 workers on infrastructural contracts across Hong Kong was initiated in May 2014. Cardiopulmonary risk screening was performed in 60-minute blocks for approximately 30 workers/block with individualized feedback and lifestyle counseling. Risk profiles stratified by occupational roles are differentiated using the χ2-test for categorical and Student's t-test for continuous variables. Most construction workers and clerks/professionals were male (83.2% and 71.2%, respectively) and Chinese (78.7% and 90.9%, respectively). Construction workers were older (mean: 44.9 years, SD 11.5) and less well-educated (6.1% received tertiary education) than clerks/professionals (35.0 years, 10.7; 72.6% received tertiary education), but more likely to be hypertensive (22.6% vs. 15.4%, pscreening can identify potentially high-cardiopulmonary-risk construction industry employee subgroups for onward confirmatory referral. Separate cardiopulmonary health promotion strategies that account for the varying lifestyle profiles of the two employee subgroups in the industry appear justified.

Risk Profiles of Children Entering Residential Care: A Cluster Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Hagaman, Jessica L.; Trout, Alexandra L.; Chmelka, M. Beth; Thompson, Ronald W.; Reid, Robert

2010-01-01

Children in residential care are a heterogeneous population, presenting various combinations of risks. Existing studies on these children suggest high variability across multiple domains (e.g., academics, behavior). Given this heterogeneity, it is important to begin to identify the combinations and patterns of multiple risks, or risk profiles,…

Estimation of Hypertension Risk from Lifestyle Factors and Health Profile: A Case Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhuoyuan Zheng

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Hypertension is a highly prevalent risk factor for cardiovascular disease and it can also lead to other diseases which seriously harm the human health. Screening the risks and finding a clinical model for estimating the risk of onset, maintenance, or the prognosis of hypertension are of great importance to the prevention or treatment of the disease, especially if the indicator can be derived from simple health profile. In this study, we investigate a chronic disease questionnaire data set of 6563 rural citizens in East China and find out a clinical signature that can assess the risk of hypertension easily and accurately. The signature achieves an accuracy of about 83% on the external test dataset, with an AUC of 0.91. Our study demonstrates that a combination of simple lifestyle features can sufficiently reflect the risk of hypertension onset. This finding provides potential guidance for disease prevention and control as well as development of home care and home-care technologies.

Risk-profile modification of energy projects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Larson, B.O.

1992-01-01

The commodity futures and swaps markets are thought to be the invention of speculators, the bane of the oil business, or possibly something confined to finance departments of major corporations. In actuality, they should be considered more as an insurance vehicle and can be used at the project level to modify the risk profile of a property. In this context, an increased familiarity with them can be useful for an engineer. Either futures of swaps can be used to guarantee or modify product prices. While this does not necessarily maximize cash flow or present worth, it can protect a project or company for several years from downside price risk, thereby reducing the risk of the venture. This can be particularly important if lower product prices would cause unacceptable cash flows or net incomes. This paper reports that reducing risk by limiting downside price exposure could alter budgeting decisions, allow continued or expanded operations of a particular property, or increase debt capacity

2007 TOXICOLOGY AND RISK ASSESSMENT ...

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EPA has announced The 2007 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference Cincinnati Marriott North, West Chester (Cincinnati), OHApril 23- 26, 2007 - Click to register!The Annual Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference is a unique meeting where several Government Agencies come together to discuss toxicology and risk assessment issues that are not only of concern to the government, but also to a broader audience including academia and industry. The theme of this year's conference is Emerging Issues and Challenges in Risk Assessment and the preliminary agenda includes: Plenary Sessions and prominent speakers (tentative) include: Issues of Emerging Chemical ContaminantsUncertainty and Variability in Risk Assessment Use of Mechanistic data in IARC evaluationsParallel Sessions:Uncertainty and Variability in Dose-Response Assessment Recent Advances in Toxicity and Risk Assessment of RDX The Use of Epidemiologic Data for Risk Assessment Applications Cumulative Health Risk Assessment:

Risk Assessment

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How the EPA conducts risk assessment to protect human health and the environment. Several assessments are included with the guidelines, models, databases, state-based RSL Tables, local contacts and framework documents used to perform these assessments.

Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Rhatigan, Jennifer; Charles, John; Hayes, Judith; Wren, Kiley

2006-01-01

Maintenance of human health on long-duration exploration missions is a primary challenge to mission designers. Indeed, human health risks are currently the largest risk contributors to the risks of evacuation or loss of the crew on long-duration International Space Station missions. We describe a quantitative assessment of the relative probabilities of occurrence of the individual risks to human safety and efficiency during space flight to augment qualitative assessments used in this field to date. Quantitative probabilistic risk assessments will allow program managers to focus resources on those human health risks most likely to occur with undesirable consequences. Truly quantitative assessments are common, even expected, in the engineering and actuarial spheres, but that capability is just emerging in some arenas of life sciences research, such as identifying and minimize the hazards to astronauts during future space exploration missions. Our expectation is that these results can be used to inform NASA mission design trade studies in the near future with the objective of preventing the higher among the human health risks. We identify and discuss statistical techniques to provide this risk quantification based on relevant sets of astronaut biomedical data from short and long duration space flights as well as relevant analog populations. We outline critical assumptions made in the calculations and discuss the rationale for these. Our efforts to date have focussed on quantifying the probabilities of medical risks that are qualitatively perceived as relatively high risks of radiation sickness, cardiac dysrhythmias, medically significant renal stone formation due to increased calcium mobilization, decompression sickness as a result of EVA (extravehicular activity), and bone fracture due to loss of bone mineral density. We present these quantitative probabilities in order-of-magnitude comparison format so that relative risk can be gauged. We address the effects of

Coagulation Profile as a Risk Factor for 30-day Morbidity Following Cervical Laminectomy and Fusion.

Science.gov (United States)

Bronheim, Rachel S; Oermann, Eric K; Cho, Samuel K; Caridi, John M

2018-02-15

Retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data. The aim of this study was to determine the ability of abnormal coagulation profile to predict adverse events following posterior cervical laminectomy and fusion (PCLF). PCLF is an increasingly common procedure used to treat a variety of traumatic and degenerative spinal conditions. Abnormal coagulation profile is associated with postoperative adverse events, including blood transfusion. There is a paucity of literature that specifically addresses the relationship between coagulation profile and complications following PCLF. ACS-NSQIP was utilized to identify patients undergoing PCLF between 2006 and 2013. A total of 3546 patients met inclusion criteria. Multivariate analysis was utilized to identify associations between abnormal coagulation profile and postoperative complications. Membership in the low-platelet cohort was an independent risk factor for myocardial infarction (Odds Ratio (OR) = 5.4 [1.0, 29.1], P = 0.049) and bleeding transfusion (OR = 2.0 [1.2, 3.4], P = 0.011). Membership in the high international normalized ratio group was an independent risk factor for pneumonia (OR = 6.3 [2.5, 16.1], P 48 hours (OR = 6.5 [2.3, 18.4], P 48 hours (OR = 4.8 [1.9, 12.4], P = 0.001), cerebrovascular accident/stroke with neurological deficit (OR = 24.8 [2.9, 210.6], P = 0.003), bleeding transfusion (OR = 2.1 [1.1, 4.1], P = 0.032), reoperation (OR = 3.6 [1.4, 9.3], P = 0.008), and sepsis (OR = 3.4 [1.1, 10.4], P = 0.031). This is the first large study to document abnormal coagulation profile as an independent predictor of outcomes following PCLF. Abnormal coagulation profile represents a predictor of complications that can be medically mitigated, and is therefore a valuable parameter to assess preoperatively. Coagulation profile should continue to play a role in targeting patients for risk stratification, preoperative optimization, and

Gender Differences in Risk/Protection Profiles for Low Academic Performance

Science.gov (United States)

Whitney, Stephen D.; Renner, Lynette M.; Herrenkohl, Todd I.

2010-01-01

Using holistic-interactionistic theory, the simultaneous nature of risk and protection factors for both males and females (age 6-11 in Wave 1) is examined using latent profile analysis (LPA). Risk/protection classes are estimated using multiple risk factor variables (e.g., physical child abuse) and multiple protective factors (e.g.,…

Review insights on the probabilistic risk assessment for the Limerick Generating Station

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1984-08-01

In recognition of the high population density around the Limerick Generating Station site and the proposed power level, the Philadelphia Electric Company, in response to NRC staff requests, conducted and submitted between March 1981 and November 1983 a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) on internal event contributors and a severe accident risk assessment on external event contributors to assess risks posed by operation of the plant. The applicant has developed perspectives using PRA models on the safety profile of the Limerick plant and has altered the plant design to reduce accident vulnerabilities identified in these PRAs. The staff's review of the Limerick PRA has particularly emphasized the dominant accident sequences and the resulting insights into demonstration of compliance with regulatory requirments, unique design features and major plant vulnerabilities to assess the need for any additional measures to further improve the safety of the LGS. The staff's review insights and PRA safety review conclusions are presented in this report

Language profiles of monolingual and bilingual Finnish preschool children at risk for language impairment.

Science.gov (United States)

Westman, Martin; Korkman, Marit; Mickos, Annika; Byring, Roger

2008-01-01

A large proportion of children are exposed to more than one language, yet research on simultaneous bilingualism has been relatively sparse. Traditionally, there has been concern that bilingualism may aggravate language difficulties of children with language impairment. However, recent studies have not found specific language impairment (SLI) or language-related problems to be increased by bilingualism. The topic of bilingualism and its effects has high actuality in Finland, where increasing numbers of children in the country's 6% Swedish-speaking minority grow up in bilingual families, where one parent's primary language is Swedish and the other's Finnish. The present study aimed at exploring the influence of such bilingualism on the language profiles of children from this population at risk for language impairment (LI). Participants were recruited from a language screening of 339 children from kindergartens with instruction only in Swedish, from the Swedish-speaking parts of Finland. Of these children, 33 (9.7%) were defined as a Risk Group for LI, whereas 48 non-risk children were randomly selected to form a control group. When subdividing the children according to home language, 35 were found to be monolingual, Swedish-speaking, and 46 were Swedish-Finnish bilingual. The children underwent neuropsychological assessment during their preschool year. Assessment methods included subtests from the Wechsler Primary and Preschool Scale of Intelligence - Revised and the NEPSY Developmental Neuropsychological Assessment. A repeated-measures multiple analysis of covariance (MANCOVA) showed a significant effect of risk of LI on the NEPSY language scores. The effect of home language was not significant and there was no interaction between home language and risk for LI. Non-verbal IQ was controlled for. Across groups, bilingual children scored lower than monolingual children only on measures of vocabulary and sentence repetition. Although a slight general cost of

Spatial risk profiling of Schistosoma japonicum in Eryuan county, Yunnan province, China

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Peter Steinmann

2007-11-01

Full Text Available Bayesian spatial risk profiling holds promise to enhance our understanding of the epidemiology of parasitic diseases, and to target interventions in a cost-effective manner. Here, we present findings from a study using Bayesian variogram models to map and predict the seroprevalence of Schistosoma japonicum in Eryuan county, Yunnan province, China, including risk factor analysis. Questionnaire and serological data were obtained through a cross-sectional survey carried out in 35 randomly selected villages with 3,220 people enrolled. Remotely-sensed environmental data were derived from publicly available databases. Bivariate and non-spatial Bayesian multiple logistic regression models were used to identify associations between the local seroprevalence and demographic (i.e. age and sex, environmental (i.e. location of village, altitude, slope, land surface temperature and normalized difference vegetation index and socio-economic factors. In the spatially-explicit Bayesian model, S. japonicum seroprevalence was significantly associated with sex, age and the location of the village. Males, those aged below 10 years and inhabitants of villages situated on steep slopes (inclination ≥20° or on less precipitous slopes of >5° above 2,150 m were at lower risk of seroconversion than their respective counterparts. Our final prediction model revealed an elevated risk for seroconversion in the plains of the eastern parts of Eryuan county. In conclusion, the prediction map can be utilized for spatial targeting of schistosomiasis control interventions in Eryuan county. Moreover, S. japonicum seroprevalence studies might offer a convenient means to assess the infection pressure experienced by local communities, and to improve risk profiling in areas where the prevalence and infection intensities have come down following repeated rounds of praziquantel administration.

Hanford Site's Integrated Risk Assessment Program: No-intervention risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mahaffey, J.A.; Dukelow, J.S. Jr.; Stenner, R.D.

1994-08-01

The long-term goal of the Integrated Risk Assessment program (IRAP) is to estimate risks to workers, the public, organizations, and groups with reserved rights to Site access, the ecosystem, and natural resources to aid in managing environmental restoration and waste management at the Hanford Site. For each of these, information is needed about current risks, risks during cleanup, and endstate risks. The objective is three-fold: to determine if and when to remediate, and to what extent; to identify information unavailable but needed to make better cleanup decisions; to establish technology performance criteria for achieving desired cleanup levels; to understand costs and benefits of activities from a Site-wide perspective. The no-intervention risk, assessment is the initial evaluation of public health risks conducted under IRAP. The objective is to identify types of activities that the US Department of Energy (DOE) must accomplish for closure of the Hanford Site, defined as no further DOE intervention. There are two primary conclusions from the no-intervention risk assessment. First, some maintenance and operations activities at Hanford must be continued to protect the public from grave risks. However, when large Hanford expenditures are compared to cleanup progress, funds expended for maintenance and operations must be put in proper perspective. Second, stakeholder's emphasis on public risks at Hanford, as indicated by remediation priorities, are not in line with those estimated. The focus currently is on compliance with regulations, and on dealing with issues which are visible to stakeholders

Chemical Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

This course is aimed at providing an overview of the fundamental guiding principles and general methods used in chemical risk assessment. Chemical risk assessment is a complex and ever-evolving process. These principles and methods have been organized by the National Research Cou...

Tailoring in risk communication by linking risk profiles and communication preferences: The case of speeding of young car drivers.

Science.gov (United States)

Geber, Sarah; Baumann, Eva; Klimmt, Christoph

2016-12-01

Speeding is one of the most relevant risk behaviors for serious and fatal accidents, particularly among young drivers. This study presents a tailoring strategy for anti-speeding communication. By referring to their motivational dispositions toward speeding derived from motivational models of health behavior, young car drivers were segmented into different risk groups. In order to ensure that risk communication efforts would actually be capable to target these groups, the linkage between the risk profiles and communication preferences were explored. The study was conducted on the basis of survey data of 1168 German car drivers aged between 17 and 24 years. The data reveal four types of risk drivers significantly differing in their motivational profiles. Moreover, the findings show significant differences in communication habits and media use between these risk groups. By linking the risk profiles and communication preferences, implications for tailoring strategies of road safety communication campaigns are derived. Promising segmentation and targeting strategies are discussed also beyond the current case of anti-speeding campaigns. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An integrated risk assessment approach: Risk assessment in the programmatic environmental impact statement

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Morris, J.M.

1994-01-01

The following paper is an informal summary of salient points made in the presentation entitled open-quotes An Integrated Risk Assessment Approach: Risk Assessment in the Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS).close quotes. This presentation was given at the U.S. DOE Integrated Planning Workshop in Denver, Colorado on June 2, 1994. Integrated decision analysis is very important in environmental restoration and waste management in the evaluation of such things as land use planning, waste load forecasting, cost analyses, and technology development activities. Integrated risk assessment is an approach that addresses multiple components of risk, including: risks from surplus facilities as well as typical environmental restoration sites, risks to the public, risks to workers, ecological risk, risks before, during and after remediation activities, and others

The relation of risk assessment and health impact assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ádám, Balázs; Gulis, Gabriel

2013-01-01

than assessing a present situation. As part of this process, however, methods applied in risk assessment are used. Risk assessment typically characterises relation of a well-defined risk factor to a well-defined health outcome. Within HIA usually several individual risk assessments are needed...... of the causal chain from the proposal through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The stepwise analysis, systematic prioritization and consideration of horizontal interactions between the causal pathways make it feasible to use widely recognized risk assessment methods in the HIA......The level and distribution of health risks in a society is substantially influenced by measures of various policies, programmes or projects. Risk assessment can evaluate the nature, likelihood and severity of an adverse effect. Health impact assessment (HIA) provides similar function when used...

Assessment of cardiovascular risk.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Cooney, Marie Therese

2010-10-01

Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the most common cause of death worldwide. Usually atherosclerosis is caused by the combined effects of multiple risk factors. For this reason, most guidelines on the prevention of CVD stress the assessment of total CVD risk. The most intensive risk factor modification can then be directed towards the individuals who will derive the greatest benefit. To assist the clinician in calculating the effects of these multiple interacting risk factors, a number of risk estimation systems have been developed. This review address several issues regarding total CVD risk assessment: Why should total CVD risk be assessed? What risk estimation systems are available? How well do these systems estimate risk? What are the advantages and disadvantages of the current systems? What are the current limitations of risk estimation systems and how can they be resolved? What new developments have occurred in CVD risk estimation?

Factors to consider in developing individual pharmaceutical product quality risk profiles useful to government procurement agencies.

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Wei; Boehm, Garth; Zheng, Qiang

2016-01-01

Governments that procure pharmaceutical products from an Essential Medicine List (EML) bear special responsibility for the quality of these products. In this article we examine the possibility of developing a pharmaceutical product quality risk assessment scheme for use by government procurement officials. We use the Chinese EML as a basis, and US recall data is examined as it is publically available.This is justified as the article is only concerned with inherent product quality risks. After establishing a link between Chinese essential medicines and those available in the US, we examine US recall data to separate product specific recalls. We conclude that, in addition to existing manufacturing based risks, there are two other product specific risks that stand out from all others, degradation and dissolution failure. Methodology for relative product risk for degradation is needed to be developed and further work is required to better understand dissolution failures which largely occur with modified-release solid oral products. We conclude that a product specific quality risk profile would be enhanced by including a risk assessment for degradation for all products, and in the case of solid oral products, dissolution.

Risk Profiles for Endometriosis in Japanese Women: Results From a Repeated Survey of Self-Reports

Science.gov (United States)

Yasui, Toshiyuki; Hayashi, Kunihiko; Nagai, Kazue; Mizunuma, Hideki; Kubota, Toshiro; Lee, Jung-Su; Suzuki, Shosuke

2015-01-01

Background The prevalence and risk factors for endometriosis may differ according to diagnosis methodologies, such as study populations and diagnostic accuracy. We examined risk profiles in imaging-diagnosed endometriosis with and without surgical confirmation in a large population of Japanese women, as well as the differences in risk profiles of endometriosis based on history of infertility. Methods Questionnaires that included items on sites of endometriosis determined by imaging techniques and surgical procedure were mailed to 1025 women who self-reported endometriosis in a baseline survey of the Japan Nurses’ Health Study (n = 15 019). Results Two hundred and ten women had surgically confirmed endometriosis (Group A), 120 had imaging-diagnosed endometriosis without a surgical procedure (Group B), and 264 had adenomyosis (Group C). A short menstrual cycle at 18–22 years of age and cigarette smoking at 30 years of age were associated with significantly increased risk of endometriosis (Group A plus Group B), while older age was associated with risk of adenomyosis (Group C). In women with a history of infertility, a short menstrual cycle was associated with a significantly increased risk of endometriosis in both Group A and Group B, but risk profiles of endometriosis were different between Group A and Group B in women without a history of infertility. Conclusions Women with surgically confirmed endometriosis and those with imaging-diagnosed endometriosis without surgery have basically common risk profiles, but these risk profiles are different from those with adenomyosis. The presence of a history of infertility should be taken into consideration for evaluation of risk profiles. PMID:25716280

The Role of Risk: Mentoring Experiences and Outcomes for Youth with Varying Risk Profiles. Executive Summary

Science.gov (United States)

Herrera, Carla; DuBois, David L.; Grossman, Jean Baldwin

2013-01-01

"The Role of Risk: Mentoring Experiences and Outcomes for Youth with Varying Risk Profiles" presents findings from the first large-scale study to examine how the levels and types of risk youth face may influence their relationships with program-assigned mentors and the benefits they derive from these relationships. The study looked…

Nursing Diagnosis Risk for falls: prevalence and clinical profile of hospitalized patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Luzia, Melissa de Freitas; Victor, Marco Antonio de Goes; Lucena, Amália de Fátima

2014-01-01

to identify the prevalence of the Nursing Diagnosis (ND) Risk for falls in the hospitalizations of adult patients in clinical and surgical units, to characterize the clinical profile and to identify the risk factors of the patients with this ND. a cross-sectional study with 174 patients. The data was collected from the computerized nursing care prescriptions system and on-line hospital records, and analyzed statistically. the prevalence of the ND Risk for falls was 4%. The patients' profile indicated older adults, males (57%), those hospitalized in the clinical units (63.2%), with a median length of hospitalization of 20 (10-24) days, with neurological illnesses (26%), cardio-vascular illnesses (74.1%) and various co-morbidities (3±1.8). The prevalent risk factors were neurological alterations (43.1%), impaired mobility (35.6%) and extremes of age (10.3%). the findings contributed to evidencing the profile of the patients with a risk of falling hospitalized in clinical and surgical wards, which favors the planning of interventions for preventing this adverse event.

Metabolic risk in schoolchildren is associated with low levels of cardiorespiratory fitness, obesity, and parents' nutritional profile.

Science.gov (United States)

Todendi, Pâmela Ferreira; Valim, Andréia Rosane de Moura; Reuter, Cézane Priscila; Mello, Elza Daniel de; Gaya, Anelise Reis; Burgos, Miria Suzana

2016-01-01

Verify the association between metabolic risk profile in students with different levels of cardiorespiratory fitness and body mass index, as well as the nutritional status of their parents. A cross-sectional study comprising 1.254 schoolchildren aged between seven and 17 years. The metabolic risk profile was calculated by summing the standardized values of high density lipoproteins and low density lipoproteins, triglycerides, glucose and systolic blood pressure. The parents' nutritional status was evaluated by self-reported weight and height data, for body mass index calculating. The body mass index of schoolchildren was classified as underweight/normal weight and overweight/obesity. The cardiorespiratory fitness was assessed by 9-minute running/walk test, being categorized as fit (good levels) and unfit (low levels). Data were analyzed using prevalence ratio values (PR). The data indicates a higher occurrence of developing metabolic risk in schoolchildren whose mother is obese (PR: 1.50; 95% CI: 1.01, 2.23), and even higher for those whose father and mother are obese (PR: 2, 79, 95% CI: 1.41; 5.51). Students who have low levels of cardiorespiratory fitness and overweight/obesity have higher occurrence of presenting metabolic risk profile (PR: 5.25; 95% CI: 3.31; 8.16). the occurrence of developing metabolic risk in schoolchildren increase when they have low levels of cardiorespiratory fitness and overweight/obesity, and the presence of parental obesity. Copyright © 2016 Sociedade Brasileira de Pediatria. Published by Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

Genomic and Metabolomic Profile Associated to Clustering of Cardio-Metabolic Risk Factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Marrachelli, Vannina G; Rentero, Pilar; Mansego, María L; Morales, Jose Manuel; Galan, Inma; Pardo-Tendero, Mercedes; Martinez, Fernando; Martin-Escudero, Juan Carlos; Briongos, Laisa; Chaves, Felipe Javier; Redon, Josep; Monleon, Daniel

2016-01-01

To identify metabolomic and genomic markers associated with the presence of clustering of cardiometabolic risk factors (CMRFs) from a general population. One thousand five hundred and two subjects, Caucasian, > 18 years, representative of the general population, were included. Blood pressure measurement, anthropometric parameters and metabolic markers were measured. Subjects were grouped according the number of CMRFs (Group 1: profile was assessed by 1H NMR spectra using a Brucker Advance DRX 600 spectrometer. From the total population, 1217 (mean age 54±19, 50.6% men) with high genotyping call rate were analysed. A differential metabolomic profile, which included products from mitochondrial metabolism, extra mitochondrial metabolism, branched amino acids and fatty acid signals were observed among the three groups. The comparison of metabolomic patterns between subjects of Groups 1 to 3 for each of the genotypes associated to those subjects with three or more CMRFs revealed two SNPs, the rs174577_AA of FADS2 gene and the rs3803_TT of GATA2 transcription factor gene, with minimal or no statistically significant differences. Subjects with and without three or more CMRFs who shared the same genotype and metabolomic profile differed in the pattern of CMRFS cluster. Subjects of Group 3 and the AA genotype of the rs174577 had a lower prevalence of hypertension compared to the CC and CT genotype. In contrast, subjects of Group 3 and the TT genotype of the rs3803 polymorphism had a lower prevalence of T2DM, although they were predominantly males and had higher values of plasma creatinine. The results of the present study add information to the metabolomics profile and to the potential impact of genetic factors on the variants of clustering of cardiometabolic risk factors.

National-Level Multi-Hazard Risk Assessments in Sub-Saharan Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Murnane, R. J.; Balog, S.; Fraser, S. A.; Jongman, B.; Van Ledden, M.; Phillips, E.; Simpson, A.

2017-12-01

National-level risk assessments can provide important baseline information for decision-making on risk management and risk financing strategies. In this study, multi-hazard risk assessments were undertaken for 9 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa: Cape Verde, Ethiopia, Kenya, Niger, Malawi, Mali, Mozambique, Senegal and Uganda. The assessment was part of the Building Disaster Resilience in Sub-Saharan Africa Program and aimed at supporting the development of multi-risk financing strategies to help African countries make informed decisions to mitigate the socio-economic, fiscal and financial impacts of disasters. The assessments considered hazards and exposures consistent with the years 2010 and 2050. We worked with multiple firms to develop the hazard, exposure and vulnerability data and the risk results. The hazards include: coastal flood, drought, earthquake, landslide, riverine flood, tropical cyclone wind and storm surge, and volcanoes. For hazards expected to vary with climate, the 2050 hazard is based on the IPCC RCP 6.0. Geolocated exposure data for 2010 and 2050 at a 15 arc second ( 0.5 km) resolution includes: structures as a function of seven development patterns; transportation networks including roads, bridges, tunnels and rail; critical facilities such as schools, hospitals, energy facilities and government buildings; crops; population; and, gross domestic product (GDP). The 2050 exposure values for population are based on the IPCC SSP 2. Values for other exposure data are a function of population change. Vulnerability was based on openly available vulnerability functions. Losses were based on replacement values (e.g., cost/m2 or cost/km). Risk results are provided in terms of annual average loss and a variety of return periods at the national and Admin 1 levels. Assessments of recent historical events are used to validate the model results. In the future, it would be useful to use hazard footprints of historical events for validation purposes. The

On the Anonymity Risk of Time-Varying User Profiles

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Silvia Puglisi

2017-04-01

Full Text Available Websites and applications use personalisation services to profile their users, collect their patterns and activities and eventually use this data to provide tailored suggestions. User preferences and social interactions are therefore aggregated and analysed. Every time a user publishes a new post or creates a link with another entity, either another user, or some online resource, new information is added to the user profile. Exposing private data does not only reveal information about single users’ preferences, increasing their privacy risk, but can expose more about their network that single actors intended. This mechanism is self-evident in social networks where users receive suggestions based on their friends’ activities. We propose an information-theoretic approach to measure the differential update of the anonymity risk of time-varying user profiles. This expresses how privacy is affected when new content is posted and how much third-party services get to know about the users when a new activity is shared. We use actual Facebook data to show how our model can be applied to a real-world scenario.

Track 6: safety and risk management. Plant operational risk management. Plant Configuration Risk Assessment Methodology Development for Periodic Maintenance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang, Huichang; Chung, Chang Hyun; Sung, Key Yong

2001-01-01

the foregoing steps, the plant configuration risks should be calculated and plotted along with the time period of analysis issued. Based on the results of the effects of human factors, common cause failures, and calculation truncation levels, the sensitivity study can be performed. 6. Development of configuration risk profile: The developed risk profiles along with the time axis for the selected time period could provide insightful information on plant operation performance and the risk effectiveness of maintenance activities. From this analysis, the specific risk patterns of plant performance by the basis of operation such as technical specifications and the limiting conditions of operations might be derived, and that information can be utilized during the activities to improve plant operation. During the application of these developed methods to the Korean NPP Younggwang Unit 3, the schedules of periodic surveillance and maintenance and the reports of trouble issued between January 2000 and October 2000 were collected. Through the review of these plant operation records, the configurations that occurred during that period were derived, and the technical specifications and the in-service test procedures were considered. The risk profile is now under development. This plant configuration risk assessment methodology can be utilized in the fields of technical specification improvement, risk-informed in-service inspection and testing, and optimization of surveillance requirements such as surveillance test intervals and allowed outage times by providing risk insights for the normal plant operation. This methodology also can provide supplementary information of on-line risk monitoring and performance monitoring for maintenance rule implementation. (authors)

Information needs for risk assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

DeRosa, C.T.; Choudhury, H.; Schoeny, R.S.

1990-12-31

Risk assessment can be thought of as a conceptual approach to bridge the gap between the available data and the ultimate goal of characterizing the risk or hazard associated with a particular environmental problem. To lend consistency to and to promote quality in the process, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published Guidelines for Risk Assessment of Carcinogenicity, Developmental Toxicity, Germ Cell Mutagenicity and Exposure Assessment, and Risk Assessment of Chemical Mixtures. The guidelines provide a framework for organizing the information, evaluating data, and for carrying out the risk assessment in a scientifically plausible manner. In the absence of sufficient scientific information or when abundant data are available, the guidelines provide alternative methodologies that can be employed in the risk assessment. 4 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

Assessing exposures and risks in heterogeneously contaminated areas: A simulation approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fingleton, D.J.; MacDonell, M.M.; Haroun, L.A.; Oezkaynak, H.; Butler, D.A.; Xue, J.

1991-01-01

The US Department of Energy (DOE) is responsible for cleanup activities at a number of facilities under its Environmental Restoration and Waste Management Program. The major goals of this program are to eliminate potential hazards to human health and the environment that are associated with contamination of these sites and, to the extent possible, make surplus real property available for other uses. The assessment of potential baseline health risks and ecological impacts associated with a contaminated site is an important component of the remedial investigation/feasibility study (RI/FS) process required at all Superfund sites. The purpose of this paper is to describe one phase of the baseline assessment, i.e., the characterization of human health risks associated with exposure to chemical contaminants in air and on interior building surfaces at a contaminated site. The model combines data on human activity patterns in a particular microenvironment within a building with contaminant concentrations in that microenvironment to calculate personal exposure profiles and risks within the building. The results of the building assessment are presented as probability distribution functions and cumulative distribution functions, which show the variability and uncertainty in the risk estimates

Assessing exposures and risks in heterogeneously contaminated areas: A simulation approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fingleton, D.J.; MacDonell, M.M.; Haroun, L.A.; Oezkaynak, H.; Butler, D.A.; Jianping Xue

1991-01-01

The US Department of Energy (DOE) is responsible for cleanup activities at a number of facilities under its Environmental Restoration and Waste Management Program. The major goals of this program are to eliminate potential hazards to human health and the environment that are associated with contamination of these sites and, to the extent possible, make surplus real property available for other uses. The assessment of potential baseline health risks and ecological impacts associated with a contaminated site is an important component of the remedial investigation/feasibility study (RI/FS) process required at all Superfund sites. The purpose of this paper is to describe one phase of the baseline assessment, i.e., the characterization of human health risks associated with exposure to chemical contaminants in air and on interior building surfaces at a contaminated site. The model combines data on human activity patterns in a particular microenvironment within a building with contaminant concentrations in that microenvironment to calculate personal exposure profiles and risks within the building. The results of the building assessment are presented as probability distributions functions and cumulative distribution functions, which show the variability and uncertainty in the risk estimates. 23 refs., 2 figs., 1 tab

Probabilistic risk assessment as an aid to risk management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garrick, B.J.

1982-01-01

Probabilistic risk assessments are providing important insights into nuclear power plant safety. Their value is two-fold: first as a means of quantifying nuclear plant risk including contributors to risk, and second as an aid to risk management. A risk assessment provides an analytical plant model that can be the basis for performing meaningful decision analyses for controlling safety. It is the aspect of quantitative risk management that makes probabilistic risk assessment an important technical discipline of the future

Assessment of risk of falls in elderly living at home

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adriana de Azevedo Smith

Full Text Available ABSTRACT Objective: to assess the risk of falls in elderly, by comparing the sociodemographic and cognitive factors, history of falls and self-reported comorbidities. Method: cross-sectional and quantitative study with 240 elderly. Data were collected based on the social profile, through the instrument of risk of falls and assessment of falls, by univariate analysis, bivariate and multiple logistic regression. The Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS version 19 was used for statistical analysis. Results: there was a significant association of the risk of falls, as measured by the Fall Risk Score, with sex (<0.001, age (0.054, cognitive status (<0.001 and history of falls (<0.001. All variables were statistically significant and contributed to the occurrence of falls. In logistic regression, the variables that showed association with risk of falls were: fall, with whom they live, hypertension and visual impairment. Conclusion: female gender, older elderly (over 80 years old, with low cognitive status and occurrence of previous falls in the last six months are factors that increase the prevalence of falls. In logistic regression, the variables that were associated with risk of falls were: fall, with whom they live, visual impairment and rheumatologic diseases.

Sun Protection Motivational Stages and Behavior: Skin Cancer Risk Profiles

Science.gov (United States)

Pagoto, Sherry L.; McChargue, Dennis E.; Schneider, Kristin; Cook, Jessica Werth

2004-01-01

Objective: To create skin cancer risk profiles that could be used to predict sun protection among Midwest beachgoers. Method: Cluster analysis was used with study participants (N=239), who provided information about sun protection motivation and behavior, perceived risk, burn potential, and tan importance. Participants were clustered according to…

Benefit-Risk Assessment, Communication, and Evaluation (BRACE) throughout the life cycle of therapeutic products: overall perspective and role of the pharmacoepidemiologist.

Science.gov (United States)

Radawski, Christine; Morrato, Elaine; Hornbuckle, Kenneth; Bahri, Priya; Smith, Meredith; Juhaeri, Juhaeri; Mol, Peter; Levitan, Bennett; Huang, Han-Yao; Coplan, Paul; Li, Hu

2015-12-01

Optimizing a therapeutic product's benefit-risk profile is an on-going process throughout the product's life cycle. Different, yet related, benefit-risk assessment strategies and frameworks are being developed by various regulatory agencies, industry groups, and stakeholders. This paper summarizes current best practices and discusses the role of the pharmacoepidemiologist in these activities, taking a life-cycle approach to integrated Benefit-Risk Assessment, Communication, and Evaluation (BRACE). A review of the medical and regulatory literature was performed for the following steps involved in therapeutic benefit-risk optimization: benefit-risk evidence generation; data integration and analysis; decision making; regulatory and policy decision making; benefit-risk communication and risk minimization; and evaluation. Feedback from International Society for Pharmacoepidemiology members was solicited on the role of the pharmacoepidemiologist. The case example of natalizumab is provided to illustrate the cyclic nature of the benefit-risk optimization process. No single, globally adopted benefit-risk assessment process exists. The BRACE heuristic offers a way to clarify research needs and to promote best practices in a cyclic and integrated manner and highlight the critical importance of cross-disciplinary input. Its approach focuses on the integration of BRACE activities for risk minimization and optimization of the benefit-risk profile. The activities defined in the BRACE heuristic contribute to the optimization of the benefit-risk profile of therapeutic products in the clinical world at both the patient and population health level. With interdisciplinary collaboration, pharmacoepidemiologists are well suited for bringing in methodology expertise, relevant research, and public health perspectives into the BRACE process. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Quantifying the benefits of achieving or maintaining long-term low risk profile for cardiovascular disease: The Doetinchem Cohort Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Hulsegge, Gerben; Smit, Henriëtte A; van der Schouw, Yvonne T; Daviglus, Martha L; Verschuren, W M Monique

2015-10-01

Studies investigating the relation between risk profiles and cardiovascular disease have measured risk at baseline only. We investigated maintenance and changes of risk profiles over time and their potential impact on incident cardiovascular disease. Population-based cohort study. Risk factors were measured at baseline (1987-1991) among 5574 cardiovascular disease-free adults aged 20-59 years. They were classified into four risk categories according to smoking status, presence of diabetes and widely accepted cut-off values for blood pressure, total cholesterol/HDL-ratio and body mass index. Categories were subdivided (maintenance, deterioration, improvement) based on risk factor levels at six and 11 years of follow-up. Multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) for cardiovascular disease incidence 5-10 years following the risk-change period were fitted using Cox proportional hazards models. Only 12% of participants were low risk at baseline, and only 7% maintained it. Participants who maintained a low risk profile over 11 years had seven times lower risk of cardiovascular disease (HR: 0.14, 95% CI: 0.05-0.41) than participants with long-term high risk profile, whereas those low risk at baseline whose profile deteriorated had three times lower risk (HR: 0.36, 95% CI: 0.18-0.71). Our results suggest that, within each baseline risk profile group, compared with a stable profile, improving profiles may be associated with up to two-fold lower HRs, and deteriorating profiles with about two-fold higher HRs. Our study, using long-term risk profiles, demonstrates the full benefits of low risk profile. These findings underscore the importance of achieving and maintaining low risk from young adulthood onwards. © The European Society of Cardiology 2014.

Determinants of attaining and maintaining a low cardiovascular risk profile-the Doetinchem Cohort Study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hulsegge, Gerben; van der Schouw, Yvonne T; Daviglus, Martha L; Smit, Henriëtte A; Verschuren, W M Monique

2016-01-01

BACKGROUND: While maintenance of a low cardiovascular risk profile is essential for cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention, few people maintain a low CVD risk profile throughout their life. We studied the association of demographic, lifestyle, psychological factors and family history of CVD with

Methodology of environmental risk assessment management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Saša T. Bakrač

2012-04-01

Full Text Available Successful protection of environment is mostly based on high-quality assessment of potential and present risks. Environmental risk management is a complex process which includes: identification, assessment and control of risk, namely taking measures in order to minimize the risk to an acceptable level. Environmental risk management methodology: In addition to these phases in the management of environmental risk, appropriate measures that affect the reduction of risk occurrence should be implemented: - normative and legal regulations (laws and regulations, - appropriate organizational structures in society, and - establishing quality monitoring of environment. The emphasis is placed on the application of assessment methodologies (three-model concept, as the most important aspect of successful management of environmental risk. Risk assessment methodology - European concept: The first concept of ecological risk assessment methodology is based on the so-called European model-concept. In order to better understand this ecological risk assessment methodology, two concepts - hazard and risk - are introduced. The European concept of environmental risk assessment has the following phases in its implementation: identification of hazard (danger, identification of consequences (if there is hazard, estimate of the scale of consequences, estimate of consequence probability and risk assessment (also called risk characterization. The European concept is often used to assess risk in the environment as a model for addressing the distribution of stressors along the source - path - receptor line. Risk assessment methodology - Canadian concept: The second concept of the methodology of environmental risk assessment is based on the so-called Canadian model-concept. The assessment of ecological risk includes risk arising from natural events (floods, extreme weather conditions, etc., technological processes and products, agents (chemical, biological, radiological, etc

Strategic Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Derleth, Jason; Lobia, Marcus

2009-01-01

This slide presentation provides an overview of the attempt to develop and demonstrate a methodology for the comparative assessment of risks across the entire portfolio of NASA projects and assets. It includes information about strategic risk identification, normalizing strategic risks, calculation of relative risk score, and implementation options.

Overview of risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rimington, J.D.

1992-01-01

The paper begins by defining some terms, and then refer to a number of technical and other difficulties. Finally it attempts to set out why risk assessment is important and what its purposes are. 2) First, risk and risk assessment - what are they?. 3) Risk is a subject of universal significance. Life is very uncertain, and we can achieve no object or benefit in it except by approaching nearer to particular hazards which lie between us and our objects. That approach represents acceptance of risk. 4) Risk assessment is a way of systematising our approach to hazard with a view to determining what is more and what is less risky. It helps us in the end to diminish our exposure while obtaining whatever benefits we have in mind, or to optimise the risks and the benefits

Overview of risk assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rimington, J D [Health and Safety Executive (United Kingdom)

1992-07-01

The paper begins by defining some terms, and then refer to a number of technical and other difficulties. Finally it attempts to set out why risk assessment is important and what its purposes are. 2) First, risk and risk assessment - what are they?. 3) Risk is a subject of universal significance. Life is very uncertain, and we can achieve no object or benefit in it except by approaching nearer to particular hazards which lie between us and our objects. That approach represents acceptance of risk. 4) Risk assessment is a way of systematising our approach to hazard with a view to determining what is more and what is less risky. It helps us in the end to diminish our exposure while obtaining whatever benefits we have in mind, or to optimise the risks and the benefits.

[Urban ecological risk assessment: a review].

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Mei-E; Chen, Wei-Ping; Peng, Chi

2014-03-01

With the development of urbanization and the degradation of urban living environment, urban ecological risks caused by urbanization have attracted more and more attentions. Based on urban ecology principles and ecological risk assessment frameworks, contents of urban ecological risk assessment were reviewed in terms of driven forces, risk resources, risk receptors, endpoints and integrated approaches for risk assessment. It was suggested that types and degrees of urban economical and social activities were the driven forces for urban ecological risks. Ecological functional components at different levels in urban ecosystems as well as the urban system as a whole were the risk receptors. Assessment endpoints involved in changes of urban ecological structures, processes, functional components and the integrity of characteristic and function. Social-ecological models should be the major approaches for urban ecological risk assessment. Trends for urban ecological risk assessment study should focus on setting a definite protection target and criteria corresponding to assessment endpoints, establishing a multiple-parameter assessment system and integrative assessment approaches.

Comparing the prevalence and the risk profile for antenatal depressive symptoms across cultures.

Science.gov (United States)

Corbani, Irene E; Rucci, Paola; Iapichino, Elena; Quartieri Bollani, Marta; Cauli, Gilla; Ceruti, Mara R; Gala, Costanzo; Bassi, Mariano

2017-11-01

Although several studies have analyzed the risk factors of antenatal and post-partum depression, evidence on the prevalence and the risk profile for antenatal depressive symptoms (ADS) between native-born and different groups of non-native born women living in the same country is scant. The aim of this article is to compare the prevalence and the risk profile for ADS across geographical areas in women recruited from two large hospitals of North-western Italy. The presence of ADS was defined as an Edinburgh Post-natal Depression Scale (EPDS) score ≥12 or a Beck Depression Inventory, Short Form (BDI-SF) score ≥9 or the presence of suicidal ideation/behavior. Crude and adjusted odds ratios (ORs) of ADS were calculated using logistic regression models. The prevalence of ADS was 12.4% among Italian women and ranged from 11.4% in other European to 44.7% in North-African women. Crude ORs of ADS were OR = 3.3 (95% confidence interval (CI), 1.2-8.8) for Asian, 3.3 (95% CI, 1.9-5.6) for South-American and 5.7 (95% CI, 3.4-9.6) for North-African women. Marital problems, at-risk pregnancy, past psychiatric history, pharmacological treatment, psychological treatment, financial problems, change in residence and number of children were significantly associated with ADS in multivariate analyses, regardless of women's origin. After adjusting for these variables, the OR of ADS remained significant for South-American and North-African women. Our results demonstrate that the risk of ADS varies across geographical areas of origin and is highest among North-African women. The risk factors identified should be assessed in routine obstetric care to inform decisions about interventions to prevent post-partum depression and its consequences on the mothers and the newborns.

[Forensic assessment of violence risk].

Science.gov (United States)

Pujol Robinat, Amadeo; Mohíno Justes, Susana; Gómez-Durán, Esperanza L

2014-03-01

Over the last 20 years there have been steps forward in the field of scientific research on prediction and handling different violent behaviors. In this work we go over the classic concept of "criminal dangerousness" and the more current of "violence risk assessment". We analyze the evolution of such assessment from the practice of non-structured clinical expert opinion to current actuarial methods and structured clinical expert opinion. Next we approach the problem of assessing physical violence risk analyzing the HCR-20 (Assessing Risk for Violence) and we also review the classic and complex subject of the relation between mental disease and violence. One of the most problematic types of violence, difficult to assess and predict, is sexual violence. We study the different actuarial and sexual violence risk prediction instruments and in the end we advise an integral approach to the problem. We also go through partner violence risk assessment, describing the most frequently used scales, especially SARA (Spouse Assault Risk Assessment) and EPV-R. Finally we give practical advice on risk assessment, emphasizing the importance of having maximum information about the case, carrying out a clinical examination, psychopathologic exploration and the application of one of the described risk assessment scales. We'll have to express an opinion about the dangerousness/risk of future violence from the subject and some recommendations on the conduct to follow and the most advisable treatment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

Science.gov (United States)

Edwards, Michelle

2010-01-01

Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

[Risk Assessment and Risk Management of Chemicals in China].

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Tie-yu; Zhou, Yun-qiao; Li, Qi-feng; Lü, Yong-long

2016-02-15

Risk assessment and risk management have been increasingly approved as an effective approach for appropriate disposal and scientific management of chemicals. This study systematically analyzed the risk assessment methods of chemicals from three aspects including health risk, ecological risk and regional risk. Based on the current situation of classification and management towards chemicals in China, a specific framework of risk management on chemicals was proposed by selecting target chemicals, predominant industries and related stakeholders as the objects. The results of the present study will provide scientific support for improving risk assessment and reasonable management of chemicals in China.

Prevalence of Subclinical Coronary Artery Disease in Masters Endurance Athletes With a Low Atherosclerotic Risk Profile.

Science.gov (United States)

Merghani, Ahmed; Maestrini, Viviana; Rosmini, Stefania; Cox, Andrew T; Dhutia, Harshil; Bastiaenan, Rachel; David, Sarojini; Yeo, Tee Joo; Narain, Rajay; Malhotra, Aneil; Papadakis, Michael; Wilson, Mathew G; Tome, Maite; AlFakih, Khaled; Moon, James C; Sharma, Sanjay

2017-07-11

Studies in middle-age and older (masters) athletes with atherosclerotic risk factors for coronary artery disease report higher coronary artery calcium (CAC) scores compared with sedentary individuals. Few studies have assessed the prevalence of coronary artery disease in masters athletes with a low atherosclerotic risk profile. We assessed 152 masters athletes 54.4±8.5 years of age (70% male) and 92 controls of similar age, sex, and low Framingham 10-year coronary artery disease risk scores with an echocardiogram, exercise stress test, computerized tomographic coronary angiogram, and cardiovascular magnetic resonance imaging with late gadolinium enhancement and a 24-hour Holter. Athletes had participated in endurance exercise for an average of 31±12.6 years. The majority (77%) were runners, with a median of 13 marathon runs per athlete. Most athletes (60%) and controls (63%) had a normal CAC score. Male athletes had a higher prevalence of atherosclerotic plaques of any luminal irregularity (44.3% versus 22.2%; P =0.009) compared with sedentary males, and only male athletes showed a CAC ≥300 Agatston units (11.3%) and a luminal stenosis ≥50% (7.5%). Male athletes demonstrated predominantly calcific plaques (72.7%), whereas sedentary males showed predominantly mixed morphology plaques (61.5%). The number of years of training was the only independent variable associated with increased risk of CAC >70th percentile for age or luminal stenosis ≥50% in male athletes (odds ratio, 1.08; 95% confidence interval, 1.01-1.15; P =0.016); 15 (14%) male athletes but none of the controls revealed late gadolinium enhancement on cardiovascular magnetic resonance imaging. Of these athletes, 7 had a pattern consistent with previous myocardial infarction, including 3(42%) with a luminal stenosis ≥50% in the corresponding artery. Most lifelong masters endurance athletes with a low atherosclerotic risk profile have normal CAC scores. Male athletes are more likely to have a CAC

Risk Factors and Bacterial Profile of Suspected Neonatal ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Neonatal septicaemia is a common cause of morbidity and mortality in developing countries and a major health concern. The aim of this study is to evaluate the bacterial profile, antibiotics susceptibility pattern and associated risk factors of suspected septicaemia in neonates in this locality. Five hundred and forty seven ...

Two approaches to incorporate clinical data uncertainty into multiple criteria decision analysis for benefit-risk assessment of medicinal products.

Science.gov (United States)

Wen, Shihua; Zhang, Lanju; Yang, Bo

2014-07-01

The Problem formulation, Objectives, Alternatives, Consequences, Trade-offs, Uncertainties, Risk attitude, and Linked decisions (PrOACT-URL) framework and multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) have been recommended by the European Medicines Agency for structured benefit-risk assessment of medicinal products undergoing regulatory review. The objective of this article was to provide solutions to incorporate the uncertainty from clinical data into the MCDA model when evaluating the overall benefit-risk profiles among different treatment options. Two statistical approaches, the δ-method approach and the Monte-Carlo approach, were proposed to construct the confidence interval of the overall benefit-risk score from the MCDA model as well as other probabilistic measures for comparing the benefit-risk profiles between treatment options. Both approaches can incorporate the correlation structure between clinical parameters (criteria) in the MCDA model and are straightforward to implement. The two proposed approaches were applied to a case study to evaluate the benefit-risk profile of an add-on therapy for rheumatoid arthritis (drug X) relative to placebo. It demonstrated a straightforward way to quantify the impact of the uncertainty from clinical data to the benefit-risk assessment and enabled statistical inference on evaluating the overall benefit-risk profiles among different treatment options. The δ-method approach provides a closed form to quantify the variability of the overall benefit-risk score in the MCDA model, whereas the Monte-Carlo approach is more computationally intensive but can yield its true sampling distribution for statistical inference. The obtained confidence intervals and other probabilistic measures from the two approaches enhance the benefit-risk decision making of medicinal products. Copyright © 2014 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Patient caries risk assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Twetman, Svante; Fontana, Margherita

2009-01-01

Risk assessment is an essential component in the decision-making process for the correct prevention and management of dental caries. Multiple risk factors and indicators have been proposed as targets in the assessment of risk of future disease, varying sometimes based on the age group at which...... they are targeted. Multiple reviews and systematic reviews are available in the literature on this topic. This chapter focusses primarily on results of reviews based on longitudinal studies required to establish the accuracy of caries risk assessment. These findings demonstrate that there is a strong body...... of evidence to support that caries experience is still, unfortunately, the single best predictor for future caries development. In young children, prediction models which include a variety of risk factors seem to increase the accuracy of the prediction, while the usefulness of additional risk factors...

Site-specific probabilistic ecological risk assessment of a volatile chlorinated hydrocarbon-contaminated tidal estuary.

Science.gov (United States)

Hunt, James; Birch, Gavin; Warne, Michael St J

2010-05-01

Groundwater contaminated with volatile chlorinated hydrocarbons (VCHs) was identified as discharging to Penrhyn Estuary, an intertidal embayment of Botany Bay, New South Wales, Australia. A screening-level hazard assessment of surface water in Penrhyn Estuary identified an unacceptable hazard to marine organisms posed by VCHs. Given the limitations of hazard assessments, the present study conducted a higher-tier, quantitative probabilistic risk assessment using the joint probability curve (JPC) method that accounted for variability in exposure and toxicity profiles to quantify risk (delta). Risk was assessed for 24 scenarios, including four areas of the estuary based on three exposure scenarios (low tide, high tide, and both low and high tides) and two toxicity scenarios (chronic no-observed-effect concentrations [NOEC] and 50% effect concentrations [EC50]). Risk (delta) was greater at low tide than at high tide and varied throughout the tidal cycle. Spatial distributions of risk in the estuary were similar using both NOEC and EC50 data. The exposure scenario including data combined from both tides was considered the most accurate representation of the ecological risk in the estuary. When assessing risk using data across both tides, the greatest risk was identified in the Springvale tributary (delta=25%)-closest to the source area-followed by the inner estuary (delta=4%) and the Floodvale tributary (delta=2%), with the lowest risk in the outer estuary (delta=0.1%), farthest from the source area. Going from the screening level ecological risk assessment (ERA) to the probabilistic ERA changed the risk from unacceptable to acceptable in 50% of exposure scenarios in two of the four areas within the estuary. The probabilistic ERA provided a more realistic assessment of risk than the screening-level hazard assessment. Copyright (c) 2010 SETAC.

Risk profile of young people admitted to hospital for suicidal behaviour in Melbourne, Australia.

Science.gov (United States)

Borschmann, Rohan; Stark, Patrick; Prakash, Chidambaram; Sawyer, Susan M

2018-05-20

Self-harm and suicidal behaviour is most prevalent during adolescence, but little is known about the risk profile of adolescents admitted to hospital for suicidal behaviour. Young people who self-harm are at an increased risk of mortality compared to those who do not self-harm; adolescents admitted to hospital for suicidal behaviour are particularly at risk. The aim of this study was to generate a risk profile of adolescents admitted to hospital with suicidal behaviour. We conducted a 12-month retrospective audit of adolescent admissions to the mental health inpatient unit at a tertiary children's hospital in Melbourne, Australia. Routinely collected data were used to generate a risk profile. We found that 212 of 271 (78.2%) admissions were due to suicidal behaviour. Of these, 107 (51%) adolescents were diagnosed with one or more mental disorders at discharge, most commonly major depressive disorder. Beyond known distal determinants of health risk, the proximal risk profile of these adolescents included factors relating to gender, substance use, prior mental health diagnoses and prior admission to hospital. Poor sleep was also a risk factor, with 159 (75%) reporting a recent history of sleeping problems. The very high proportion of admissions to the mental health inpatient unit due to suicidal behaviour reinforces the importance of finding effective methods of identification of the risk processes underpinning suicidal behaviours to reduce the unnecessary waste of young lives by suicide. © 2018 Paediatrics and Child Health Division (The Royal Australasian College of Physicians).

Differences in cardiovascular risk profile based on relationship between post-load plasma glucose and fasting plasma levels.

Science.gov (United States)

Succurro, Elena; Marini, Maria Adelaide; Grembiale, Alessandro; Lugarà, Marina; Andreozzi, Francesco; Sciacqua, Angela; Hribal, Marta Letizia; Lauro, Renato; Perticone, Francesco; Sesti, Giorgio

2009-05-01

It has been shown that subjects with normal glucose tolerance (NGT), whose plasma glucose (PG) levels do not return to their fasting PG level within 2 h during an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) (Group I), have a significantly higher risk to develop type 2 diabetes than NGT subjects whose 2-h glucose returns to, or drops below, the fasting level (Group I). However, it is still unsettled whether individuals in Group II have a more atherogenic profile than Group I subjects. To address this issue, we examined 266 non-diabetic offspring of type 2 diabetic patients, recruited in the context of EUGENE2 cross-sectional study. All subjects underwent an euglycaemic-hyperinsulinemic clamp to assess glucose tolerance and insulin sensitivity. Furthermore, cardiovascular risk factors and ultrasound measurement of carotid intima-media thickness (IMT) were evaluated. Individuals in Group II exhibited significantly higher waist circumference, blood pressure, triglycerides, 2-h post-load PG, hsC-reactive protein, interleukin-6, insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1), IMT, and lower insulin sensitivity than subjects in Group I. Subjects with NGT, whose PG concentration does not return to their fasting PG level within 2 h during OGTT, have an atherogenic profile, suggesting that performing OGTT with measurement of PG every 30 min may be useful to assess the risk for cardiovascular disease in glucose-tolerant subjects.

Building better environmental risk assessments

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Raymond eLayton

2015-08-01

Full Text Available Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERA for genetically modified (GM crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data, and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments

Science.gov (United States)

Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

2015-01-01

Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines. PMID:26301217

Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments.

Science.gov (United States)

Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

2015-01-01

Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems - examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

Risk Assessment Stability: A Revalidation Study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment Instrument

Science.gov (United States)

Schwalbe, Craig S.

2009-01-01

The actuarial method is the gold standard for risk assessment in child welfare, juvenile justice, and criminal justice. It produces risk classifications that are highly predictive and that may be robust to sampling error. This article reports a revalidation study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment instrument, an actuarial instrument for juvenile…

Risk Factors Profile of Shoulder Dystocia in Oman: A Case Control Study

Science.gov (United States)

Al-Khaduri, Maha M.; Abudraz, Rania Mohammed; Al-Farsi, Yahya M.

2014-01-01

Objective This study aimed to assess the risk factor profile of shoulder dystocia and associated neonatal complications in Oman, a developing Arab country. Methods A retrospective case-control study was conducted among 111 cases with dystocia and 111 controls, identified during 1994-2006 period in a tertiary care hospital in Oman. Controls were randomly selected among women who did not have dystocia, and were matched to cases on the day of delivery. Data related to potential risk factors, delivery, and obstetric complications were collected. Results Dystocia was significantly associated with older maternal age, higher parity, larger BMI, diabetes, and previous record of dystocia. In addition, dystocia was associated more with vacuum and forceps deliveries. Routine traction (51%) was the most used manoeuvre. Among dystocia cases, 13% were associated with fetal complications of which Erb’s Palsy was the most prevalent (79%). Conclusion Our finding of significant associations with risk factors lays out the ground to develop a predictability index for shoulder dystocia, which would help in making it preventable. Further p rospective studies are required to confirm the obtained results. PMID:25337307

Risk Factors Profile of Shoulder Dystocia in Oman: A Case Control Study

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Maha M. Al-Khaduri

2014-09-01

Full Text Available Objective: This study aimed to assess the risk factor profile of shoulder dystocia and associated neonatal complications in Oman, a developing Arab country. Methods: A retrospective case-control study was conducted among 111 cases with dystocia and 111 controls, identified during 1994-2006 period in a tertiary care hospital in Oman. Controls were randomly selected among women who did not have dystocia, and were matched to cases on the day of delivery. Data related to potential risk factors, delivery, and obstetric complications were collected. Results: Dystocia was significantly associated with older maternal age, higher parity, larger BMI, diabetes, and previous record of dystocia. In addition, dystocia was associated more with vacuum and forceps deliveries. Routine traction (51% was the most used manoeuvre. Among dystocia cases, 13% were associated with fetal complications of which Erb’s Palsy was the most prevalent (79%. Conclusion: Our finding of significant associations with risk factors lays out the ground to develop a predictability index for shoulder dystocia, which would help in making it preventable. Further prospective studies are required to confirm the obtained results.

Virtual environment assessment for laser-based vision surface profiling

Science.gov (United States)

ElSoussi, Adnane; Al Alami, Abed ElRahman; Abu-Nabah, Bassam A.

2015-03-01

Oil and gas businesses have been raising the demand from original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) to implement a reliable metrology method in assessing surface profiles of welds before and after grinding. This certainly mandates the deviation from the commonly used surface measurement gauges, which are not only operator dependent, but also limited to discrete measurements along the weld. Due to its potential accuracy and speed, the use of laser-based vision surface profiling systems have been progressively rising as part of manufacturing quality control. This effort presents a virtual environment that lends itself for developing and evaluating existing laser vision sensor (LVS) calibration and measurement techniques. A combination of two known calibration techniques is implemented to deliver a calibrated LVS system. System calibration is implemented virtually and experimentally to scan simulated and 3D printed features of known profiles, respectively. Scanned data is inverted and compared with the input profiles to validate the virtual environment capability for LVS surface profiling and preliminary assess the measurement technique for weld profiling applications. Moreover, this effort brings 3D scanning capability a step closer towards robust quality control applications in a manufacturing environment.

Risk profile modification of energy projects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Larson, B.O.

1992-01-01

The commodity futures and swaps markets are thought by some to be the invention of speculators, the bane of the oil business, or possibly something confined to finance departments of major corporations. In actuality, they should be considered more as insurance and can be utilized at the project level to modify the risk profile of a property. In this context, an increased familiarity with them can be useful for an engineer. This paper reports that either futures or swaps can be used to guarantee or modify product prices, an accomplishment very difficult or impossible to duplicate through other means, particularly with such integrity. Participation in futures or swaps does not necessarily maximize cashflow or present worth, it can either guarantee the price, put a minimum price in place or offer a combination of the above. A project or company can be protected for several years from downside price risk using swaps. Not being subject to market price swings substantially reduces the risk of the venture. This can be particularly important if lower product prices would cause unacceptable cashflows or net incomes

Nursing Diagnosis Risk for falls: prevalence and clinical profile of hospitalized patients1

Science.gov (United States)

Luzia, Melissa de Freitas; Victor, Marco Antonio de Goes; Lucena, Amália de Fátima

2014-01-01

Objectives to identify the prevalence of the Nursing Diagnosis (ND) Risk for falls in the hospitalizations of adult patients in clinical and surgical units, to characterize the clinical profile and to identify the risk factors of the patients with this ND. Method a cross-sectional study with 174 patients. The data was collected from the computerized nursing care prescriptions system and on-line hospital records, and analyzed statistically. Results the prevalence of the ND Risk for falls was 4%. The patients' profile indicated older adults, males (57%), those hospitalized in the clinical units (63.2%), with a median length of hospitalization of 20 (10-24) days, with neurological illnesses (26%), cardio-vascular illnesses (74.1%) and various co-morbidities (3±1.8). The prevalent risk factors were neurological alterations (43.1%), impaired mobility (35.6%) and extremes of age (10.3%). Conclusion the findings contributed to evidencing the profile of the patients with a risk of falling hospitalized in clinical and surgical wards, which favors the planning of interventions for preventing this adverse event. PMID:26107834

How information resources are used by federal agencies in risk assessment application: Rapporteur summary

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fenner-Crisp, P. [Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC (United States)

1990-12-31

The application of information available for risk assessment from the federal perspective is described. Different federal agencies conduct varying degrees of hazard evaluation, and some also generate empirical data. The role of the Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry in hazard assessments of potential public health impacts of Superfund sites includes identification of the 275 most significant substances. ATSDR is responsible for preparing toxicological profiles. ATSDR also identifies data gaps and needs critical to adequately assessing human health impacts.

RISK MANAGEMENT: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENT

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Szabo Alina

2012-12-01

Full Text Available Purpose: The objective of this paper is to offer an overview over risk management cycle by focusing on prioritization and treatment, in order to ensure an integrated approach to risk management and assessment, and establish the ‘top 8-12’ risks report within the organization. The interface with Internal Audit is ensured by the implementation of the scoring method to prioritize risks collected from previous generated risk report. Methodology/approach: Using evidence from other research in the area and the professional expertise, this article outlines an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management reporting processes, by separating the risk in two main categories: strategic and operational risks. The focus is on risk prioritization and scoring; the final output will comprise a mix of strategic and operational (‘top 8-12’ risks, which should be used to establish the annual Internal Audit plan. Originality/value: By using an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management will eliminate the need for a separate Internal Audit risk assessment over prevailing risks. It will reduce the level of risk assessment overlap by different functions (Tax, Treasury, Information System over the same risk categories as a single methodology, is used and will align timings of risk assessment exercises. The risk prioritization by usage of risk and control scoring criteria highlights the combination between financial and non-financial impact criteria allowing risks that do not naturally lend themselves to a financial amount to be also assessed consistently. It is emphasized the usage of score method to prioritize the risks included in the annual audit plan in order to increase accuracy and timelines.

The diabetic foot risks profile in Selebi Phikwe Government Hospital, Botswana

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Stephane Tshitenge

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Aim: The present study aimed: (1 to evaluate the proportion of each diabetic foot (DF risk category, according to the International Working Group on the Diabetic Foot (IWGDF consensus, in patients attending the diabetic clinic in Selebi Phikwe Government Hospital (SPGH and (2 to examine some of the factors that may be associated with the progression to higher risk categories such as anthropometric measurements, blood pressure, glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA1c and lipid profile.Methods: A retrospective, cross sectional chart review of patients who had attended the diabetic clinic in SPGH from January 2013 to December 2013 was performed. Patients were included if they had undergone a foot examination. Patients with amputation due to accident were excluded. The DF risk category was assessed by determining the proportion of patients in each of four risk categories, as described by the IWGDF consensus.Results: The study encompassed 144 records from patients reviewed for foot examination from January to December 2013. Patients’ ages were between 16 and 85 years, 46 (40% were male and 98 (60% were female. The majority (122, [85%] of patients were in DF risk category 0, whilst a limited number of patients were classified in risk category 1 (10, [6.9%], risk category 2 (7, [4.9%] and risk category 3 (5, [3.5%]. Most of the patients had the type 2 diabetes mellitus (139, [97%; 95% CI 92% − 99%]. Patients’ ages were associated with the progressively higher DF risk categories. The adjusted odd ratio was 1.1 (95% CI 1.03−1.14; p = 0.004.Conclusion: The present study revealed that about 15% of patients attending the SPGH diabetic clinic were categorised in higher risk groups for diabetic foot; patients’ ages were linked to the higher DF risk categories.

Visual Impairment/Intracranial Pressure Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Fogarty, Jennifer A.; Durham, T.; Otto, C.; Grounds, D.; Davis, J. R.

2010-01-01

Since 2006 there have been 6 reported cases of altered visual acuity and intracranial pressure (ICP) in long duration astronauts. In order to document this risk and develop an integrated approach to its mitigation, the NASA Space Life Sciences Directorate (SLSD) and Human Research Program (HRP) have chosen to use the Human System Risk Board (HSRB) and the risk management analysis tool (RMAT). The HSRB is the venue in which the stakeholders and customers discuss and vet the evidence and the RMAT is the tool that facilitates documentation and comparison of the evidence across mission profiles as well as identification of risk factors, and documentation of mitigation strategies. This process allows for information to be brought forward and dispositioned so that it may be properly incorporated into the RMAT and contribute to the design of the research and mitigation plans. The evidence thus far has resulted in the identification of a visual impairment/intracranial pressure (VIIP) project team, updating of both short and long duration medical requirements designed to assess visual acuity, and a research plan to characterize this issue further. In order to understand this issue more completely, a plan to develop an Accelerated Research Collaboration (ARC) has been approved by the HSRB. The ARC is a novel research model pioneered by the Myelin Repair Foundation. It is a patient centered research model that brings together researchers and clinicians, under the guidance of a scientific advisory panel, to collaborate and produce results much quickly than accomplished through traditional research models. The data and evidence from the updated medical requirements and the VIIP ARC will be reviewed at the HSRB on a regular basis. Each review package presented to the HSRB will include an assessment and recommendation with respect to continuation of research, countermeasure development, occupational surveillance modalities, selection criteria, etc. This process will determine the

Risk assessment: 'A consumer's perspective'

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Waterhouse, Rachel

1992-01-01

The paper assesses the concept of risk, risk assessment and tolerability of risk from consumer point of view. Review of existing UK and EC directives on certain products and appliances is also covered

Risk assessment: 'A consumer's perspective'

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Waterhouse, Rachel [Consumer' s Association, Health and Safety Commission (United Kingdom)

1992-07-01

The paper assesses the concept of risk, risk assessment and tolerability of risk from consumer point of view. Review of existing UK and EC directives on certain products and appliances is also covered.

Risk profiles of Alzheimer disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Bilbul, Melanie; Schipper, Hyman M

2011-07-01

Alzheimer disease (AD) is a dementing, neurodegenerative disorder that affects approximately 500,000 Canadians and its prevalence is expected to double over the next 30 years. Although several medications may temporarily augment cognitive abilities in AD, there presently exists no proven method to avoid the inevitable clinical deterioration in this devastating condition. The delineation of risk factors for the development of AD offers hope for the advent of effective prevention or interventions that might retard the onset of symptoms. In this article, we provide a comprehensive review of midlife risk factors implicated in the etiopathogenesis of sporadic AD. Although some risk factors are heritable and largely beyond our control, others are determined by lifestyle or environment and are potentially modifiable. In a companion paper, we introduce the concept of an Alzheimer Risk Assessment Clinic for ascertainment and mitigation of these and other putative dementia risk factors in middle-aged adults.

Risk factors for substances use and misuse among young people in France: What can we learn from the Substance Use Risk Profile Scale?

Science.gov (United States)

Ali, A; Carré, A; Hassler, C; Spilka, S; Vanier, A; Barry, C; Berthoz, S

2016-06-01

The prevention of addictions in young people is a challenge for Mental and Public Health policies, and requires specific risk-screening tools. Specific personality traits, as assessed using the Substance Use Risk Profile Scale (SURPS), could play a key role in the onset and escalation of substance use. This study aimed to examine (1) measurement invariance across age and gender (2) the effects of age and gender on associations between SURPS scores and the most frequently-consumed substances. Analyses were based on the responses from 5069 participants (aged 14-20 years) from the 2011 ESPAD-France dataset. Substance-use outcomes were experimentation and current frequency of alcohol, tobacco and cannabis use, and drunkenness. Our approach, consisting in analysing measurement and structural invariance and interaction terms, established the stability of (i) SURPS profiles, and (ii) relationships between these scores and substance experimentation and use over a developmental period ranging from mid-adolescence to early adulthood. Measurement invariance across genders was also confirmed despite the absence of scalar invariance for 2 items. Significant interactions between gender and SURPS factors were established, highlighting differential vulnerability, especially concerning Hopelessness and experimentation of alcohol and drunkenness, or Impulsivity and tobacco experimentation. Finally, Anxiety Sensitivity could be protective against substance use, especially for cannabis in girls. Our results suggest the relevance of the SURPS to assess vulnerability towards drug use, and underline the need to consider gender differences in addiction risks. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Assessment of yellow fever epidemic risk: an original multi-criteria modeling approach.

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Sylvie Briand

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Yellow fever (YF virtually disappeared in francophone West African countries as a result of YF mass vaccination campaigns carried out between 1940 and 1953. However, because of the failure to continue mass vaccination campaigns, a resurgence of the deadly disease in many African countries began in the early 1980s. We developed an original modeling approach to assess YF epidemic risk (vulnerability and to prioritize the populations to be vaccinated. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We chose a two-step assessment of vulnerability at district level consisting of a quantitative and qualitative assessment per country. Quantitative assessment starts with data collection on six risk factors: five risk factors associated with "exposure" to virus/vector and one with "susceptibility" of a district to YF epidemics. The multiple correspondence analysis (MCA modeling method was specifically adapted to reduce the five exposure variables to one aggregated exposure indicator. Health districts were then projected onto a two-dimensional graph to define different levels of vulnerability. Districts are presented on risk maps for qualitative analysis in consensus groups, allowing the addition of factors, such as population migrations or vector density, that could not be included in MCA. The example of rural districts in Burkina Faso show five distinct clusters of risk profiles. Based on this assessment, 32 of 55 districts comprising over 7 million people were prioritized for preventive vaccination campaigns. CONCLUSION: This assessment of yellow fever epidemic risk at the district level includes MCA modeling and consensus group modification. MCA provides a standardized way to reduce complexity. It supports an informed public health decision-making process that empowers local stakeholders through the consensus group. This original approach can be applied to any disease with documented risk factors.

Using risk assessment in periodontics.

Science.gov (United States)

Woodman, Alan J

2014-08-01

Risk assessment has become a regular feature in both dental practice and society as a whole, and principles used to assess risk in society are similar to those used in a clinical setting. Although the concept of risk assessment as a prognostic indicator for periodontal disease incidence and activity is well established in the management of periodontitis, the use of risk assessment to manage the practical treatment of periodontitis and its sequelae appears to have less foundation. A simple system of initial risk assessment - building on the use of the Basic Periodontal Examination (BPE), clinical, medical and social factors - is described, linked to protocols for delivering care suited to general dental practice and stressing the role of long-term supportive care. The risks of not treating the patient are considered, together with the possible causes of failure, and the problems of successful treatment are illustrated by the practical management of post-treatment recession.

A total risk assessment methodology for security assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Auilar, Richard; Pless, Daniel J.; Kaplan, Paul Garry; Silva, Consuelo Juanita; Rhea, Ronald Edward; Wyss, Gregory Dane; Conrad, Stephen Hamilton

2009-01-01

Sandia National Laboratories performed a two-year Laboratory Directed Research and Development project to develop a new collaborative risk assessment method to enable decision makers to fully consider the interrelationships between threat, vulnerability, and consequence. A five-step Total Risk Assessment Methodology was developed to enable interdisciplinary collaborative risk assessment by experts from these disciplines. The objective of this process is promote effective risk management by enabling analysts to identify scenarios that are simultaneously achievable by an adversary, desirable to the adversary, and of concern to the system owner or to society. The basic steps are risk identification, collaborative scenario refinement and evaluation, scenario cohort identification and risk ranking, threat chain mitigation analysis, and residual risk assessment. The method is highly iterative, especially with regard to scenario refinement and evaluation. The Total Risk Assessment Methodology includes objective consideration of relative attack likelihood instead of subjective expert judgment. The 'probability of attack' is not computed, but the relative likelihood for each scenario is assessed through identifying and analyzing scenario cohort groups, which are groups of scenarios with comparable qualities to the scenario being analyzed at both this and other targets. Scenarios for the target under consideration and other targets are placed into cohort groups under an established ranking process that reflects the following three factors: known targeting, achievable consequences, and the resources required for an adversary to have a high likelihood of success. The development of these target cohort groups implements, mathematically, the idea that adversaries are actively choosing among possible attack scenarios and avoiding scenarios that would be significantly suboptimal to their objectives. An adversary who can choose among only a few comparable targets and scenarios (a

Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cathryn Clarke Murray

Full Text Available The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such "indirect risks" can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their "at-risk status" designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but-by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here-they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within.

24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section 35... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance with...

Coagulation Profile Changes Due to Thromboprophylaxis and Platelets in Trauma Patients at High-Risk for Venous Thromboembolism.

Science.gov (United States)

Allen, Casey J; Murray, Clark R; Meizoso, Jonathan P; Ray, Juliet J; Teisch, Laura F; Ruiz, Xiomara D; Hanna, Mena M; Guarch, Gerardo A; Manning, Ronald J; Livingstone, Alan S; Ginzburg, Enrique; Schulman, Carl I; Namias, Nicholas; Proctor, Kenneth G

2015-07-01

We hypothesize there are coagulation profile changes associated both with initiation of thromboporphylaxis (TPX) and with change in platelet levels in trauma patients at high-risk for venous thromboembolism (VTE). A total of 1203 trauma intensive care unit patients were screened with a VTE risk assessment profile. In all, 302 high-risk patients (risk assessment profile score ≥ 10) were consented for weekly thromboelastography. TPX was initiated between initial and follow-up thromboelastography. Seventy-four patients were analyzed. Upon admission, 87 per cent were hypercoagulable, and 81 per cent remained hypercoagulable by Day 7 (P = 0.504). TPX was initiated 3.4 ± 1.4 days after admission; 68 per cent received unfractionated heparin and 32 per cent received low-molecular-weight heparin. The VTE rate was 18 per cent, length of stay 38 (25-37) days, and mortality of 17.6 per cent. In all, 76 per cent had a rapid clotting time at admission versus 39 per cent at Day 7 (P < 0.001); correcting from 7.75 (6.45-8.90) minutes to 10.45 (7.90-15.25) minutes (P < 0.001). At admission, 41 per cent had an elevated maximum clot formation (MCF) and 85 per cent had at Day 7 (P < 0.001); increasing from 61(55-65) mm to 75(69-80) mm (P < 0.001). Platelets positively correlated with MCF at admission (r = 0.308, R(2) = 0.095, P = 0.008) and at Day 7 (r = 0.516, R(2) = 0.266, P < 0.001). Change in platelet levels correlated with change in MCF (r = 0.332, R(2) = 0.110, P = 0.005). In conclusion, hypercoagulability persists despite the use of TPX. Although clotting time normalizes, MCF increases in correlation with platelet levels. As platelet function is a dominant contributor to sustained trauma-evoked hypercoagulability, antiplatelet therapy may be indicated in the management of severely injured trauma patients.

Utilization of ACL Injury Biomechanical and Neuromuscular Risk Profile Analysis to Determine the Effectiveness of Neuromuscular Training.

Science.gov (United States)

Hewett, Timothy E; Ford, Kevin R; Xu, Yingying Y; Khoury, Jane; Myer, Gregory D

2016-12-01

The widespread use of anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury prevention interventions has not been effective in reducing the injury incidence among female athletes who participate in high-risk sports. The purpose of this study was to determine if biomechanical and neuromuscular factors that contribute to the knee abduction moment (KAM), a predictor of future ACL injuries, could be used to characterize athletes by a distinct factor. Specifically, we hypothesized that a priori selected biomechanical and neuromuscular factors would characterize participants into distinct at-risk profiles. Controlled laboratory study. A total of 624 female athletes who participated in jumping, cutting, and pivoting sports underwent testing before their competitive season. During testing, athletes performed drop-jump tasks from which biomechanical measures were captured. Using data from these tasks, latent profile analysis (LPA) was conducted to identify distinct profiles based on preintervention biomechanical and neuromuscular measures. As a validation, we examined whether the profile membership was a significant predictor of the KAM. LPA using 6 preintervention biomechanical measures selected a priori resulted in 3 distinct profiles, including a low (profile 1), moderate (profile 2), and high (profile 3) risk for ACL injuries. Athletes with profiles 2 and 3 had a significantly higher KAM compared with those with profile 1 (P risk profiles. Three distinct risk groups were identified based on differences in the peak KAM. These findings demonstrate the existence of discernable groups of athletes that may benefit from injury prevention interventions. ClinicalTrials.gov NCT identifier: NCT01034527. © 2016 The Author(s).

Exploring the uncertainties in cancer risk assessment using the integrated probabilistic risk assessment (IPRA) approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Slob, Wout; Bakker, Martine I; Biesebeek, Jan Dirk Te; Bokkers, Bas G H

2014-08-01

Current methods for cancer risk assessment result in single values, without any quantitative information on the uncertainties in these values. Therefore, single risk values could easily be overinterpreted. In this study, we discuss a full probabilistic cancer risk assessment approach in which all the generally recognized uncertainties in both exposure and hazard assessment are quantitatively characterized and probabilistically evaluated, resulting in a confidence interval for the final risk estimate. The methodology is applied to three example chemicals (aflatoxin, N-nitrosodimethylamine, and methyleugenol). These examples illustrate that the uncertainty in a cancer risk estimate may be huge, making single value estimates of cancer risk meaningless. Further, a risk based on linear extrapolation tends to be lower than the upper 95% confidence limit of a probabilistic risk estimate, and in that sense it is not conservative. Our conceptual analysis showed that there are two possible basic approaches for cancer risk assessment, depending on the interpretation of the dose-incidence data measured in animals. However, it remains unclear which of the two interpretations is the more adequate one, adding an additional uncertainty to the already huge confidence intervals for cancer risk estimates. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Mercury and omega-3 fatty acid profiles in freshwater fish of the Dehcho Region, Northwest Territories: Informing risk benefit assessments.

Science.gov (United States)

Laird, Matthew J; Henao, Juan J Aristizabal; Reyes, Ellen S; Stark, Ken D; Low, George; Swanson, Heidi K; Laird, Brian D

2018-05-17

Traditional foods have significant nutritional, sociocultural and economic value in subarctic First Nations communities of the Northwest Territories, and play a crucial role in promoting cultural continuity and sovereignty. Omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (N-3 PUFAs), including eicosapentaenoic (EPA) and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA), carry significant benefits for neurocognitive development and cardiovascular health. However, the health risks posed by methylmercury may serve to undermine the benefits of fish consumption in Northern Indigenous communities. The objective of this study was to characterize profiles for mercury (Hg) and fatty acids in fish species harvested across lakes of the Dehcho Region, in the Mackenzie Valley of the Northwest Territories, to better understand the risks and benefits associated with traditional foods. Hg levels increased with trophic position, with the highest levels found in Burbot, Lake Trout, Walleye, and Northern Pike. Lake Trout, along with planktivorous species including Lake Whitefish, Cisco, and Sucker, demonstrated higher N-3 PUFAs than other species. Negative associations were observed between Hg and N-3 PUFAs in Lake Trout, Northern Pike, Walleye and Burbot. Further stratifying these relationships revealed significant interactions by lake. Significant differences observed in fatty acid and Hg profiles across lakes underscore the importance of considering both species- and lake-specific findings. This growing dataset of freshwater fish of the Dehcho will inform future efforts to characterize human Hg exposure profiles using probabilistic dose reconstruction models. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components

Science.gov (United States)

Mach, Megan E.; Martone, Rebecca G.; Singh, Gerald G.; O, Miriam; Chan, Kai M. A.

2016-01-01

The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such “indirect risks” can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i) the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii) risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their “at-risk status” designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but—by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here—they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within. PMID:27632287

Avalanche risk assessment in Russia

Science.gov (United States)

Komarov, Anton; Seliverstov, Yury; Sokratov, Sergey; Glazovskaya, Tatiana; Turchaniniva, Alla

2017-04-01

The avalanche prone area covers about 3 million square kilometers or 18% of total area of Russia and pose a significant problem in most mountain regions of the country. The constant growth of economic activity, especially in the North Caucasus region and therefore the increased avalanche hazard lead to the demand of the large-scale avalanche risk assessment methods development. Such methods are needed for the determination of appropriate avalanche protection measures as well as for economic assessments during all stages of spatial planning of the territory. The requirement of natural hazard risk assessments is determined by the Federal Law of Russian Federation. However, Russian Guidelines (SP 11-103-97; SP 47.13330.2012) are not clearly presented concerning avalanche risk assessment calculations. A great size of Russia territory, vast diversity of natural conditions and large variations in type and level of economic development of different regions cause significant variations in avalanche risk values. At the first stage of research the small scale avalanche risk assessment was performed in order to identify the most common patterns of risk situations and to calculate full social risk and individual risk. The full social avalanche risk for the territory of country was estimated at 91 victims. The area of territory with individual risk values lesser then 1×10(-6) covers more than 92 % of mountain areas of the country. Within these territories the safety of population can be achieved mainly by organizational activities. Approximately 7% of mountain areas have 1×10(-6) - 1×10(-4) individual risk values and require specific mitigation measures to protect people and infrastructure. Territories with individual risk values 1×10(-4) and above covers about 0,1 % of the territory and include the most severe and hazardous mountain areas. The whole specter of mitigation measures is required in order to minimize risk. The future development of such areas is not recommended

Risk assessment in international operations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stricklin, Daniela L.

2008-01-01

During international peace-keeping missions, a diverse number of non-battle hazards may be encountered, which range from heavily polluted areas, endemic disease, toxic industrial materials, local violence, traffic, and even psychological factors. Hence, elevated risk levels from a variety of sources are encountered during deployments. With the emphasis within the Swedish military moving from national defense towards prioritization of international missions in atypical environments, the risk of health consequences, including long term health effects, has received greater consideration. The Swedish military is interested in designing an optimal approach for assessment of health threats during deployments. The Medical Intelligence group at FOI CBRN Security and Defence in Umea has, on request from and in collaboration with the Swedish Armed Forces, reviewed a variety of international health threat and risk assessment models for military operations. Application of risk assessment methods used in different phases of military operations will be reviewed. An overview of different international approaches used in operational risk management (ORM) will be presented as well as a discussion of the specific needs and constraints for health risk assessment in military operations. This work highlights the specific challenges of risk assessment that are unique to the deployment setting such as the assessment of exposures to a variety of diverse hazards concurrently

Implications of probabilistic risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cullingford, M.C.; Shah, S.M.; Gittus, J.H.

1987-01-01

Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is an analytical process that quantifies the likelihoods, consequences and associated uncertainties of the potential outcomes of postulated events. Starting with planned or normal operation, probabilistic risk assessment covers a wide range of potential accidents and considers the whole plant and the interactions of systems and human actions. Probabilistic risk assessment can be applied in safety decisions in design, licensing and operation of industrial facilities, particularly nuclear power plants. The proceedings include a review of PRA procedures, methods and technical issues in treating uncertainties, operating and licensing issues and future trends. Risk assessment for specific reactor types or components and specific risks (eg aircraft crashing onto a reactor) are used to illustrate the points raised. All 52 articles are indexed separately. (U.K.)

Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

1994-01-01

The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms{open_quote} risk assessment{close_quote} and{open_quote} risk management{close_quote} are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of {open_quotes}... the most significant data and uncertainties...{close_quotes} in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are {open_quotes}...those that define and explain the main risk conclusions{close_quotes}. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation.

Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

1994-01-01

The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms open-quote risk assessment close-quote and open-quote risk management close-quote are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of open-quotes... the most significant data and uncertainties...close quotes in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are open-quotes...those that define and explain the main risk conclusionsclose quotes. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation

Victimization and Human Immunodeficiency Virus-Related Risk Among Transgender Women in India: A Latent Profile Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Willie, Tiara C; Chakrapani, Venkatesan; White Hughto, Jaclyn M; Kershaw, Trace S

2017-12-01

Globally, transgender women (TGW) experience multiple forms of victimization such as violence and discrimination that can place them at risk for poor sexual health. To date, research overlooks the heterogeneity in experiences of victimization among TGW. Furthermore, few studies have examined the association between victimization and sexual risk among TGW in India, despite the high burden of HIV and victimization in this community. Latent profile analysis was performed to identify patterns of victimization in a convenience sample of 299 TGW recruited from nongovernmental organizations across four states in India. Analysis of covariance was performed to examine differences in sexual risk (i.e., alcohol use before sex; inconsistent condom use with a male regular partner, a male causal partner, and a male paying partner; and having multiple sexual partners) between latent profiles. Five distinct profiles of Indian TGW were identified based on the type and severity of victimization: (1) Low victimization, (2) High verbal police victimization, (3) High verbal and physical police victimization, (4) Moderate victimization, and (5) High victimization. While controlling for age, education, income, HIV status, and marital status, results revealed that TGW in the moderate victimization and high victimization profiles had higher sexual risk than TGW in the low victimization and high verbal police victimization profiles. In addition, TGW in high verbal and physical police victimization profile had higher sexual risk than TGW in low victimization profile. These findings underscore the importance of tailoring sexual risk reduction interventions to the specific needs of TGW based on patterns of victimization.

Advanced Test Reactor outage risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thatcher, T.A.; Atkinson, S.A.

1997-01-01

Beginning in 1997, risk assessment was performed for each Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) outage aiding the coordination of plant configuration and work activities (maintenance, construction projects, etc.) to minimize the risk of reactor fuel damage and to improve defense-in-depth. The risk assessment activities move beyond simply meeting Technical Safety Requirements to increase the awareness of risk sensitive configurations, to focus increased attention on the higher risk activities, and to seek cost-effective design or operational changes that reduce risk. A detailed probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) had been performed to assess the risk of fuel damage during shutdown operations including heavy load handling. This resulted in several design changes to improve safety; however, evaluation of individual outages had not been performed previously and many risk insights were not being utilized in outage planning. The shutdown PRA provided the necessary framework for assessing relative and absolute risk levels and assessing defense-in-depth. Guidelines were written identifying combinations of equipment outages to avoid. Screening criteria were developed for the selection of work activities to receive review. Tabulation of inherent and work-related initiating events and their relative risk level versus plant mode has aided identification of the risk level the scheduled work involves. Preoutage reviews are conducted and post-outage risk assessment is documented to summarize the positive and negative aspects of the outage with regard to risk. The risk for the outage is compared to the risk level that would result from optimal scheduling of the work to be performed and to baseline or average past performance

GAR Global Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Maskrey, Andrew; Safaie, Sahar

2015-04-01

Disaster risk management strategies, policies and actions need to be based on evidence of current disaster loss and risk patterns, past trends and future projections, and underlying risk factors. Faced with competing demands for resources, at any level it is only possible to priorities a range of disaster risk management strategies and investments with adequate understanding of realised losses, current and future risk levels and impacts on economic growth and social wellbeing as well as cost and impact of the strategy. The mapping and understanding of the global risk landscape has been greatly enhanced by the latest iteration of the GAR Global Risk Assessment and the objective of this submission is to present the GAR global risk assessment which contributed to Global Assessment Report (GAR) 2015. This initiative which has been led by UNISDR, was conducted by a consortium of technical institutions from around the world and has covered earthquake, cyclone, riverine flood, and tsunami probabilistic risk for all countries of the world. In addition, the risks associated with volcanic ash in the Asia-Pacific region, drought in various countries in sub-Saharan Africa and climate change in a number of countries have been calculated. The presentation will share thee results as well as the experience including the challenges faced in technical elements as well as the process and recommendations for the future of such endeavour.

Deterministic quantitative risk assessment development

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dawson, Jane; Colquhoun, Iain [PII Pipeline Solutions Business of GE Oil and Gas, Cramlington Northumberland (United Kingdom)

2009-07-01

Current risk assessment practice in pipeline integrity management is to use a semi-quantitative index-based or model based methodology. This approach has been found to be very flexible and provide useful results for identifying high risk areas and for prioritizing physical integrity assessments. However, as pipeline operators progressively adopt an operating strategy of continual risk reduction with a view to minimizing total expenditures within safety, environmental, and reliability constraints, the need for quantitative assessments of risk levels is becoming evident. Whereas reliability based quantitative risk assessments can be and are routinely carried out on a site-specific basis, they require significant amounts of quantitative data for the results to be meaningful. This need for detailed and reliable data tends to make these methods unwieldy for system-wide risk k assessment applications. This paper describes methods for estimating risk quantitatively through the calibration of semi-quantitative estimates to failure rates for peer pipeline systems. The methods involve the analysis of the failure rate distribution, and techniques for mapping the rate to the distribution of likelihoods available from currently available semi-quantitative programs. By applying point value probabilities to the failure rates, deterministic quantitative risk assessment (QRA) provides greater rigor and objectivity than can usually be achieved through the implementation of semi-quantitative risk assessment results. The method permits a fully quantitative approach or a mixture of QRA and semi-QRA to suit the operator's data availability and quality, and analysis needs. For example, consequence analysis can be quantitative or can address qualitative ranges for consequence categories. Likewise, failure likelihoods can be output as classical probabilities or as expected failure frequencies as required. (author)

Evaluation of thermal risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Loos, J.J.; Perry, E.S.

1993-01-01

Risk assessment was done in 1983 to estimate the ecological hazard of increasing the generating load and thermal output of an electric generating station. Subsequently, long-term monitoring in the vicinity of the station allowed verification of the predictions made in the risk assessment. This presentation will review the efficacy of early risk assessment methods in producing useful predictions from a resource management point of view. In 1984, the Chalk Point Generating facility of the Potomac Electric Power Company increased it's median generating load by 100%. Prior to this operational change, the Academy of Natural Sciences of Philadelphia synthesized site specific data, model predictions, and results from literature to assess the risk of additional waste heat to the Patuxent River subestuary of Chesapeake Bay. Risk was expressed as the number of days per year that various species of fish and the blue crab would be expected to avoid the discharge vicinity. Accuracy of these predictions is assessed by comparing observed fish and crab distributions and their observed frequencies of avoidance to those predicted. It is concluded that the predictions of this early risk assessment were sufficiently accurate to produce a reliable resource management decision

On risk assessment of energy production

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kunii, Katsuhiko

2005-07-01

Today we cannot ignore the risk of health and/or environment by energy production such as power generation since the risk has been made large enough. In this report an information survey has been done in order to know the outline and points of risk assessment. Based on the information of reports and literature about risk assessment, have been surveyed mainly the external cost assessment of power generation (in which quantification of health and/or environment risk has been done), in addition, risks of disasters, accidents, investments, finance etc. and impacts of those risks on social activities. The remarks obtained by the survey are as follows: 1) Some of external cost assessment of power generation show different results even if the assessment conditions of technology, site, etc. are mostly the same. It is necessary to remark on the information such as basic data, model, background, application limit of assessment considering the reliability. 2) Especially it is considered that the reliability of risk assessment is not enough at present because of the lack of basic data. (author)

78 FR 76628 - Draft Risk Profile on Pathogens and Filth in Spices: Availability; Extension of Comment Period

Science.gov (United States)

2013-12-18

...] Draft Risk Profile on Pathogens and Filth in Spices: Availability; Extension of Comment Period AGENCY... Profile on Pathogens and Filth in Spices: Availability'' that appeared in the Federal Register of November... Risk Profile on Pathogens and Filth in Spices: Availability.'' The notice provided a 60-day comment...

Defense Programs Transportation Risk Assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Clauss, D.B.

1994-01-01

This paper provides an overview of the methodology used in a probabilistic transportation risk assessment conducted to assess the probabilities and consequences of inadvertent dispersal of radioactive materials arising from severe transportation accidents. The model was developed for the Defense Program Transportation Risk Assessment (DPTRA) study. The analysis incorporates several enhancements relative to previous risk assessments of hazardous materials transportation including newly-developed statistics on the frequencies and severities of tractor semitrailer accidents and detailed route characterization using the 1990 Census data

Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB)

Science.gov (United States)

The Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB) focuses on the development, evaluation, and dissemination of high-quality risk factor metrics, methods, tools, technologies, and resources for use across the cancer research continuum, and the assessment of cancer-related risk factors in the population.

Risk assessments ensure safer power

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1982-02-19

A growth industry is emerging devoted to the study and comparison of the economic, social and health risks posed by large industrial installations. Electricity generation is one area coming under particularly close scrutiny. Types of risk, ways of assessing risk and the difference between experts' analyses and the public perception of risk are given. An example of improved risk assessment helping to reduce deaths and injuries in coal mining is included.

Benefit-Risk Assessment, Communication, and Evaluation (BRACE) throughout the life cycle of therapeutic products : overall perspective and role of the pharmacoepidemiologist

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Radawski, Christine; Morrato, Elaine; Hornbuckle, Kenneth; Bahri, Priya; Smith, Meredith; Juhaeri, Juhaeri; Mol, Peter; Levitan, Bennett; Huang, Han-Yao; Coplan, Paul; Li, Hu

2015-01-01

Purpose Optimizing a therapeutic product's benefit-risk profile is an on-going process throughout the product's life cycle. Different, yet related, benefit-risk assessment strategies and frameworks are being developed by various regulatory agencies, industry groups, and stakeholders. This paper

Comparing caries risk profiles between 5- and 10- year-old children with cleft lip and/or palate and non-cleft controls.

Science.gov (United States)

Sundell, Anna Lena; Ullbro, Christer; Marcusson, Agneta; Twetman, Svante

2015-07-25

Previous studies have suggested that children with oral clefts may have higher caries prevalence in comparison with non-cleft controls but the relative importance of the potential risk factors is not clear. The aim of this study was to compare the caries risk profiles in a group of cleft lip and/or palate (CL(P)) children with non-cleft controls in the same age using a computerized caries risk assessment model. The study group consisted of 133 children with CL(P) (77 subjects aged 5 years and 56 aged 10 years) and 297 non-cleft controls (133 aged 5 years and 164 aged 10 years). A questionnaire was used to collect data concerning the child's oral hygiene routines, dietary habits and fluoride exposure. Oral hygiene was assessed using Quigley-Hein plaque Index and the caries prevalence and frequency was scored according to the International Caries Detection and Assessment System. Whole saliva samples were analyzed for mutans streptococci, lactobacilli, buffering capacity and secretion rate. The risk factors and risk profiles were compared between the groups with aid of Cariogram and the estimated risk for future caries was categorized as "high" or "low". Children with CL(P) (the entire study group) had significantly higher counts of salivary lactobacilli (p < 0.05) and displayed less good oral hygiene (p < 0.05). More 10-year-old children in the CL(P) group had low secretion rate but this difference was not significant. The average chance to avoid caries ranged from 59 to 67% but there were no significant differences between the groups. The odds of being categorized with high caries risk in the CL(P) group was significantly elevated (OR = 1.89; 95% CI = 1.25-2.86). In both groups, children in the high risk category had a higher caries experience than those with low risk. Children with CL(P) displayed increased odds of being categorized at high caries risk with impaired oral hygiene and elevated salivary lactobacilli counts as most influential factors. The results

BARC-risk monitor- a tool for operational safety assessment in nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vinod, Gopika; Saraf, R.K.; Babar, A.K.; Hadap, Nikhil

2000-12-01

Probabilistic safety assessment has become a key tool as on today to identify and understand nuclear power plant vulnerabilities. As a result of the availability of these PSA studies, there is a desire to use them to enhance plant safety and to operate the nuclear stations in the most efficient manner. Risk monitor is a PC based tool, which computes the real time safety level and assists plant personnel to manage day-to-day activities. Risk monitor is a PC based user friendly software tool used for modification and re-analysis of a nuclear power plant. Operation of risk monitor is based on PSA methods for assisting in day to day applications. Risk monitoring programs can assess the risk profile and are used to optimise the operation of nuclear power plants with respect to a minimum risk level over the operating time. This report presents the background activities of risk monitor, its application areas and also gives the status of such tools in international scenarios. The software is based on the PSA model of Kaiga generating station and would be applicable to similar design configuration. (author)

Risk assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen, Liselotte; Rasmussen, Kirsten; Elsass, Peter

2010-01-01

International research suggests that using formalized risk assessment methods may improve the predictive validity of professionals' predictions of risk of future violence. This study presents data on forensic psychiatric patients discharged from a forensic unit in Denmark in year 2001-2002 (n=107...... and the individual dynamic items strengthen the use of this scheme in clinical practice. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved) (journal abstract)...

Rising public debt profile in Nigeria: risks and sustainablity issues ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Rising public debt profile in Nigeria: risks and sustainablity issues. ... and state governments has echoed new concerns for policy stakeholders in Nigeria. ... the share of concessional loan in external debt stock and develop Public-Private ...

Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

... HRS Find a Specialist Share Twitter Facebook SCA Risk Assessment Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) occurs abruptly and without ... people of all ages and health conditions. Start Risk Assessment The Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment Tool ...

Integrated climate change risk assessment:

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Halsnæs, Kirsten

2017-01-01

Risk assessments of flooding in urban areas during extreme precipitation for use in, for example, decision-making regarding climate adaptation, are surrounded by great uncertainties stemming from climate model projections, methods of downscaling and the assumptions of socioeconomic impact models...... to address the complex linkages between the different kinds of data required in assessing climate adaptation. It emphasizes that the availability of spatially explicit data can reduce the overall uncertainty of the risk assessment and assist in identifying key vulnerable assets. The usefulness...... of such a framework is demonstrated by means of a risk assessment of flooding from extreme precipitation for the city of Odense, Denmark. A sensitivity analysis shows how the presence of particularly important assets, such as cultural and historical heritage, may be addressed in assessing such risks. The output...

A qualitative risk assessment approach for Swiss dairy products: opportunities and limitations.

Science.gov (United States)

Menéndez González, S; Hartnack, S; Berger, T; Doherr, M; Breidenbach, E

2011-05-01

Switzerland implemented a risk-based monitoring of Swiss dairy products in 2002 based on a risk assessment (RA) that considered the probability of exceeding a microbiological limit value set by law. A new RA was launched in 2007 to review and further develop the previous assessment, and to make recommendations for future risk-based monitoring according to current risks. The resulting qualitative RA was designed to ascertain the risk to human health from the consumption of Swiss dairy products. The products and microbial hazards to be considered in the RA were determined based on a risk profile. The hazards included Campylobacter spp., Listeria monocytogenes, Salmonella spp., Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli, coagulase-positive staphylococci and Staphylococcus aureus enterotoxin. The release assessment considered the prevalence of the hazards in bulk milk samples, the influence of the process parameters on the microorganisms, and the influence of the type of dairy. The exposure assessment was linked to the production volume. An overall probability was estimated combining the probabilities of release and exposure for each combination of hazard, dairy product and type of dairy. This overall probability represents the likelihood of a product from a certain type of dairy exceeding the microbiological limit value and being passed on to the consumer. The consequences could not be fully assessed due to lack of detailed information on the number of disease cases caused by the consumption of dairy products. The results were expressed as a ranking of overall probabilities. Finally, recommendations for the design of the risk-based monitoring programme and for filling the identified data gaps were given. The aims of this work were (i) to present the qualitative RA approach for Swiss dairy products, which could be adapted to other settings and (ii) to discuss the opportunities and limitations of the qualitative method. © 2010 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Healthy lifestyle through young adulthood and the presence of low cardiovascular disease risk profile in middle age: the Coronary Artery Risk Development in (Young) Adults (CARDIA) study.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Kiang; Daviglus, Martha L; Loria, Catherine M; Colangelo, Laura A; Spring, Bonnie; Moller, Arlen C; Lloyd-Jones, Donald M

2012-02-28

A low cardiovascular disease risk profile (untreated cholesterol risk profile. We examined whether adopting a healthy lifestyle throughout young adulthood is associated with the presence of the low cardiovascular disease risk profile in middle age. The Coronary Artery Risk Development in (Young) Adults (CARDIA) study sample consisted of 3154 black and white participants 18 to 30 years of age at year 0 (1985-1986) who attended the year 0, 7, and 20 examinations. Healthy lifestyle factors defined at years 0, 7, and 20 included average body mass index risk profile at year 20 were 3.0%, 14.6%, 29.5%, 39.2%, and 60.7% for people with 0 or 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 healthy lifestyle factors, respectively (P for trend risk profile in middle age. Public health and individual efforts are needed to improve the adoption and maintenance of healthy lifestyles in young adults.

Cardiovascular risk profile in patients with myelopathy associated with HTLV-1.

Science.gov (United States)

Prado, Fabio Luís Silva do; Prado, Renata; Ladeia, Ana Marice Teixeira

HAM/TSP (HTLV-1-associated myelopathy/tropical spastic paraparesis) is a slowly progressive disease, characterized by a chronic spastic paraparesis. It is not known if the disease carries an independent risk for cardiovascular disease. The objective of this study was to evaluate the cardiovascular risk profile related to HAM/TSP and compare it with the general population. This was a cross-sectional study, with a control group. HAM/TSP patients were evaluated using cardiovascular risk scores (ASCVD RISK, SCORE and Framingham) and inflammatory markers (ultrasensitive CRP and IL-6), and compared with a control group of healthy individuals. We also evaluated the correlation between cardiovascular risk and the functional status of patients with HAM/TSP evaluated by the FIM scale. Eighty percent of patients in this study were females, mean age of 51 years (11.3). The control group showed an increased cardiovascular event risk in 10 years when ASCVD was analyzed (cardiovascular risk ≥7.5% in 10 years seen in 43% of patients in the control group vs. 23% of patients with HAM/TSP; p=0.037). There was no difference in ultrasensitive CRP or IL-6 values between the groups, even when groups were stratified into low and high risk. There was no correlation between the functional status of HAM/TSP patients and the cardiovascular risk. In this study, the cardiovascular risk profile of patients with HAM/TSP was better than the risk of the control group. Copyright © 2017 Sociedade Brasileira de Infectologia. Published by Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

Korean Ministry of Environment's web-based visual consumer product exposure and risk assessment system (COPER).

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Hunjoo; Lee, Kiyoung; Park, Ji Young; Min, Sung-Gi

2017-05-01

With support from the Korean Ministry of the Environment (ME), our interdisciplinary research staff developed the COnsumer Product Exposure and Risk assessment system (COPER). This system includes various databases and features that enable the calculation of exposure and determination of risk caused by consumer products use. COPER is divided into three tiers: the integrated database layer (IDL), the domain specific service layer (DSSL), and the exposure and risk assessment layer (ERAL). IDL is organized by the form of the raw data (mostly non-aggregated data) and includes four sub-databases: a toxicity profile, an inventory of Korean consumer products, the weight fractions of chemical substances in the consumer products determined by chemical analysis and national representative exposure factors. DSSL provides web-based information services corresponding to each database within IDL. Finally, ERAL enables risk assessors to perform various exposure and risk assessments, including exposure scenario design via either inhalation or dermal contact by using or organizing each database in an intuitive manner. This paper outlines the overall architecture of the system and highlights some of the unique features of COPER based on visual and dynamic rendering engine for exposure assessment model on web.

Seismic risk assessment of architectural heritages in Gyeongju considering local site effects

Science.gov (United States)

Park, H.-J.; Kim, D.-S.; Kim, D.-M.

2013-02-01

A seismic risk assessment is conducted for cultural heritage sites in Gyeongju, the capital of Korea's ancient Silla Kingdom. Gyeongju, home to UNESCO World Heritage sites, contains remarkable artifacts of Korean Buddhist art. An extensive geotechnical survey including a series of in situ tests is presented, providing pertinent soil profiles for site response analyses on thirty cultural heritage sites. After the shear wave velocity profiles and dynamic material properties were obtained, site response analyses were carried out at each historical site and the amplification characteristics, site period, and response spectrum of the site were determined for the earthquake levels of 2400 yr and 1000 yr return periods based on the Korean seismic hazard map. Response spectrum and corresponding site coefficients obtained from site response analyses considering geologic conditions differ significantly from the current Korean seismic code. This study confirms the importance of site-specific ground response analyses considering local geological conditions. Results are given in the form of the spatial distribution of bedrock depth, site period, and site amplification coefficients, which are particularly valuable in the context of a seismic vulnerability study. This study presents the potential amplification of hazard maps and provides primary data on the seismic risk assessment of each cultural heritage.

Memory Resilience to Alzheimer's Genetic Risk: Sex Effects in Predictor Profiles.

Science.gov (United States)

McDermott, Kirstie L; McFall, G Peggy; Andrews, Shea J; Anstey, Kaarin J; Dixon, Roger A

2017-10-01

Apolipoprotein E (APOE) ɛ4 and Clusterin (CLU) C alleles are risk factors for Alzheimer's disease (AD) and episodic memory (EM) decline. Memory resilience occurs when genetically at-risk adults perform at high and sustained levels. We investigated whether (a) memory resilience to AD genetic risk is predicted by biological and other risk markers and (b) the prediction profiles vary by sex and AD risk variant. Using a longitudinal sample of nondemented adults (n = 642, aged 53-95) we focused on memory resilience (over 9 years) to 2 AD risk variants (APOE, CLU). Growth mixture models classified resilience. Random forest analysis, stratified by sex, tested the predictive importance of 22 nongenetic risk factors from 5 domains (n = 24-112). For both sexes, younger age, higher education, stronger grip, and everyday novel cognitive activity predicted memory resilience. For women, 9 factors from functional, health, mobility, and lifestyle domains were also predictive. For men, only fewer depressive symptoms was an additional important predictor. The prediction profiles were similar for APOE and CLU. Although several factors predicted resilience in both sexes, a greater number applied only to women. Sex-specific mechanisms and intervention targets are implied. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Reliability and Probabilistic Risk Assessment - How They Play Together

Science.gov (United States)

Safie, Fayssal M.; Stutts, Richard G.; Zhaofeng, Huang

2015-01-01

perform its intended function(s) for a specified mission profile. In general, the reliability metric can be calculated through the analyses using reliability demonstration and reliability prediction methodologies. Reliability analysis is very critical for understanding component failure mechanisms and in identifying reliability critical design and process drivers. The following sections discuss the PRA process and reliability engineering in detail and provide an application where reliability analysis and PRA were jointly used in a complementary manner to support a Space Shuttle flight risk assessment.

Qualitative techniques for managing operational risk

OpenAIRE

Delfiner, Miguel; Pailhé, Cristina

2009-01-01

Qualitative techniques are essential tools for identifying and assessing operational risk (OR). Their relevance in assessing OR can be understood due to the lack of a quantitative static model capable of capturing the dynamic operational risk profile which is shaped by managerial decisions. An operational risk profile obtained solely from historical loss data could further change due to corrective actions implemented by the bank after the occurrence of those events. This document introduces s...

Using a multifactorial approach to determine fall risk profiles in portuguese older adults.

Science.gov (United States)

Moniz-Pereira, Vera; Carnide, Filomena; Ramalho, Fátima; André, Helô; Machado, Maria; Santos-Rocha, Rita; Veloso, António P

2013-01-01

The aim of this study was to use a multifactorial approach to characterize episodic and recurrent fallers risk profiles in Portuguese older adults. To accomplish the mentioned purpose, 1416 Portuguese older adults above 65 years were tested with three different field measurements: 1) health and falls questionnaire; 2) Physical Activity questionnaire and 3) a set of functional fitness tests. The subjects were divided in three different groups according to fall prevalence: non-fallers, subjects who did not report any falls during the previous year, episodic fallers, those who reported to have fallen only once during the previous year, and recurrent fallers, the ones that fell twice or more times during the previous year. Episodic and Recurrent fallers risk profiles were established using multifactorial logistic regression models in order to avoid confounding effects between the variables. The results showed that age was not a risk factor for either episodic or recurrent falling. In addition, health parameters were shown to be the factors distinguishing recurrent from episodic fallers. This may imply that, comparing with episodic falls, recurrent falls are more associated with higher presence of chronic conditions and are less likely to occur due to external factors. Furthermore, being a woman, having fear of falling and lower functional fitness levels were determinant factors for both episodic and recurrent falls. It is also important to note that, although total physical activity was only related with episodic falling, promoting physical activity and exercise may be the easiest and cheapest way to improve functional fitness and health levels and therefore, its role in fall prevention should not be underestimated. The results of this study reinforce the importance of using a multifactorial approach, not only focusing on cognitive-behavioral factors, but also on promoting physical activity and healthy lifestyles, when assessing fall risk or planning an intervention

Risk assessment methodology for Hanford high-level waste tanks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bott, T.F.; Mac Farlane, D.R.; Stack, D.W.; Kindinger, J.

1992-01-01

A methodology is presented for applying Probabilistic Safety Assessment techniques to quantification of the health risks posed by the high-level waste (HLW) underground tanks at the Department of Energy's Hanford reservation. This methodology includes hazard screening development of a list of potential accident initiators, systems fault trees development and quantification, definition of source terms for various release categories, and estimation of health consequences from the releases. Both airborne and liquid pathway releases to the environment, arising from aerosol and spill/leak releases from the tanks, are included in the release categories. The proposed methodology is intended to be applied to a representative subset of the total of 177 tanks, thereby providing a baseline risk profile for the HLW tank farm that can be used for setting clean-up/remediation priorities. Some preliminary results are presented for Tank 101-SY

Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk

Science.gov (United States)

... Health Professional Resources Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk Assessment of weight and health risk involves using ... risk for developing obesity-associated diseases or conditions. Risk Factors for Health Topics Associated With Obesity Along ...

Validation of the "Security Needs Assessment Profile" for measuring the profiles of security needs of Chinese forensic psychiatric inpatients.

Science.gov (United States)

Siu, B W M; Au-Yeung, C C Y; Chan, A W L; Chan, L S Y; Yuen, K K; Leung, H W; Yan, C K; Ng, K K; Lai, A C H; Davies, S; Collins, M

Mapping forensic psychiatric services with the security needs of patients is a salient step in service planning, audit and review. A valid and reliable instrument for measuring the security needs of Chinese forensic psychiatric inpatients was not yet available. This study aimed to develop and validate the Chinese version of the Security Needs Assessment Profile for measuring the profiles of security needs of Chinese forensic psychiatric inpatients. The Security Needs Assessment Profile by Davis was translated into Chinese. Its face validity, content validity, construct validity and internal consistency reliability were assessed by measuring the security needs of 98 Chinese forensic psychiatric inpatients. Principal factor analysis for construct validity provided a six-factor security needs model explaining 68.7% of the variance. Based on the Cronbach's alpha coefficient, the internal consistency reliability was rated as acceptable for procedural security (0.73), and fair for both physical security (0.62) and relational security (0.58). A significant sex difference (p=0.002) in total security score was found. The Chinese version of the Security Needs Assessment Profile is a valid and reliable instrument for assessing the security needs of Chinese forensic psychiatric inpatients. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Healthy Lifestyle through Young Adulthood and Presence of Low Cardiovascular Disease Risk Profile in Middle Age: The Coronary Artery Risk Development in (Young) Adults (CARDIA) Study

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Kiang; Daviglus, Martha L.; Loria, Catherine M.; Colangelo, Laura A.; Spring, Bonnie; Moller, Arlen C.; Lloyd-Jones, Donald M.

2012-01-01

Background A low cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk profile (untreated cholesterol risk profile. We examined whether adopting a healthy lifestyle throughout young adulthood is associated with presence of the low CVD risk profile in middle age. Methods and Results The CARDIA study sample consisted of 3,154 black and white participants aged 18 to 30 years at Year 0 (Y0, 1985-86) who attended the Year 0, 7 and 20 (Y0, Y7 and Y20) examinations. Healthy lifestyle factors (HLFs) defined at Y0, Y7 and Y20 included: 1) Average BMI risk profile at Y20 were 3.0%, 14.6%, 29.5%, 39.2% and 60.7% for people with 0 or 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 HLFs, respectively (p-trend risk profile in middle age. Public health and individual efforts are needed to improve adoption and maintenance of healthy lifestyles in young adults. PMID:22291127

Profile of coronary heart disease risk factors in first-year university ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

There is substantial evidence that coronary heart disease risk factors are present in people of all ages. The extent to which the problem exists in university students in South Africa has not been confirmed in the literature and needs further investigation. The aim of the study was to profile the coronary heart disease risk factors ...

Assessment of OEP health's risk in nuclear medicine

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Santacruz-Gomez, K.; Manzano, C.; Melendrez, R.; Castaneda, B.; Barboza-Flores, M.; Pedroza-Montero, M.

2012-01-01

The use of ionizing radiation has been increased in recent years within medical applications. Nuclear Medicine Department offers both treatment and diagnosis of diseases using radioisotopes to controlled doses. Despite the great benefits to the patient, there is an inherent risk to workers which remains in contact with radiation sources for long periods. These personnel must be monitored to avoid deterministic effects. In this work, we retrospectively evaluated occupationally exposed personnel (OEP) to ionizing radiation in nuclear medicine during the last five years. We assessed both area and personal dosimetry of this department in a known Clinic in Sonora. Our results show an annual equivalent dose average of 4.49 ± 0.70 mSv in OEP without showing alarming changes in clinical parameters analyzed. These results allow us to conclude that health of OEP in nuclear medicine of this clinic has not been at risk during the evaluated period. However, we may suggest the use of individual profiles based on specific radiosensitivity markers.

Fall risk profile and quality-of-life status of older chiropractic patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Holt, Kelly R; Noone, Paul L; Short, Krystal; Elley, C Raina; Haavik, Heidi

2011-02-01

The primary aim of this study was to estimate the prevalence of fall risk factors in older chiropractic patients. The secondary aim was to investigate the quality-of-life status of older chiropractic patients and to see whether a history of falling was related to quality-of-life status. A cross-sectional study was conducted at 12 chiropractic practices throughout Auckland, New Zealand, and Melbourne, Australia. The study involved gaining a profile of health status, fall history, and fall risk from active chiropractic patients who were 65 years or older. One hundred ten older chiropractic patients were approached, and 101 agreed to participate in this study (response rate, 91.8%). Thirty-five percent of participants had experienced at least 1 fall in the previous 12 months. Of those that had fallen, 80% had at least a minor injury, with 37% of fallers requiring medical attention and 6% suffering a serious injury. The prevalence of most fall risk factors was consistent with published data for community-dwelling older adults. Quality of life of older chiropractic patients appeared to be good, but fallers reported a lower physical component summary score compared with nonfallers (P = .04). A portion of the older chiropractic patients sampled in this study had a substantial risk of falling. This risk could be assessed on a regular basis for the presence of modifiable fall risk factors, and appropriate advice, given when fall risks are identified. Copyright © 2011 National University of Health Sciences. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

C-Band Airport Surface Communications System Engineering-Initial High-Level Safety Risk Assessment and Mitigation

Science.gov (United States)

Zelkin, Natalie; Henriksen, Stephen

2011-01-01

This document is being provided as part of ITT's NASA Glenn Research Center Aerospace Communication Systems Technical Support (ACSTS) contract: "New ATM Requirements--Future Communications, C-Band and L-Band Communications Standard Development." ITT has completed a safety hazard analysis providing a preliminary safety assessment for the proposed C-band (5091- to 5150-MHz) airport surface communication system. The assessment was performed following the guidelines outlined in the Federal Aviation Administration Safety Risk Management Guidance for System Acquisitions document. The safety analysis did not identify any hazards with an unacceptable risk, though a number of hazards with a medium risk were documented. This effort represents an initial high-level safety hazard analysis and notes the triggers for risk reassessment. A detailed safety hazards analysis is recommended as a follow-on activity to assess particular components of the C-band communication system after the profile is finalized and system rollout timing is determined. A security risk assessment has been performed by NASA as a parallel activity. While safety analysis is concerned with a prevention of accidental errors and failures, the security threat analysis focuses on deliberate attacks. Both processes identify the events that affect operation of the system; and from a safety perspective the security threats may present safety risks.

Risk assessment theory, methods, and applications

CERN Document Server

Rausand, Marvin

2011-01-01

With its balanced coverage of theory and applications along with standards and regulations, Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications serves as a comprehensive introduction to the topic. The book serves as a practical guide to current risk analysis and risk assessment, emphasizing the possibility of sudden, major accidents across various areas of practice from machinery and manufacturing processes to nuclear power plants and transportation systems. The author applies a uniform framework to the discussion of each method, setting forth clear objectives and descriptions, while also shedding light on applications, essential resources, and advantages and disadvantages. Following an introduction that provides an overview of risk assessment, the book is organized into two sections that outline key theory, methods, and applications. * Introduction to Risk Assessment defines key concepts and details the steps of a thorough risk assessment along with the necessary quantitative risk measures. Chapters outline...

The issue of risk dilution in risk assessments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wilmot, R.; Robinson, P.

2004-01-01

This paper explores an issue that was first highlighted more than 20 years ago during an inquiry concerning the Sizeweli B nuclear power station in the UK. In the probabilistic safety assessment for this plant, the proponent had apparently reduced its estimates of risk by admitting to increased uncertainty about the timing of certain events. This situation is counter-intuitive, since an increase in uncertainty about the factors contributing to safety would be expected to lead to less confidence and hence to greater risk. This paradoxical situation was termed 'risk dilution' and it has been a topic of interest to reviewers of safety cases since. The recent international peer review of the Yucca Mountain performance assessments concluded that there was a potential for risk dilution in the assumptions and calculations presented. The next section describes how assumptions about the timing of events and other aspects of an assessment may lead to risk dilution, and this is followed by two examples based on recent performance assessments. The final section discusses how potential problems can be identified in safety cases, and the types of response that a regulator might adopt as a result. (authors)

Risk Assessment in the Maritime Industry

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Mousavi

2017-02-01

Full Text Available Risk assessment is a well-developed field which many operators are currently applying to improve their operations and reduce their risk exposure. This paper is intended to provide an overview of the risk assessment for mariners in the Maritime transportation. The risks addressed are primarily those affecting the safety of a vessel, facility or operation. The concept of risk is defined, and the methods available to assess the risks associated with an operation are described. Regulatory requirements that have prompted the development of modern risk assessment practices are described, and future regulatory trends are discussed. There are many different analysis techniques and models that have been developed to aid in conducting risk assessments. A key to any successful risk analysis is choosing the right method (or combination of methods for the situation at hand. This is achieved through critical analysis of the available data concerning marine crises. This paper provides a brief introduction to some of the analysis methods available and suggests risk analysis approaches to support different types of decision making within the maritime transportation to cope with crises. Finally, as awareness of risk assessment increases, the benefits which can be realized through its application will continue to increase. Organizations in both the public and the private sector are becoming more and more familiar with the benefits associated with risk-based approaches to managing safety and consequently reducing crisis in maritime transportation.

The MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy: A Flexible Strategy for Efficient Information Collection and Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials.

Science.gov (United States)

Bos, Peter M J; Gottardo, Stefania; Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck J; van Tongeren, Martie; Semenzin, Elena; Fernandes, Teresa F; Hristozov, Danail; Hund-Rinke, Kerstin; Hunt, Neil; Irfan, Muhammad-Adeel; Landsiedel, Robert; Peijnenburg, Willie J G M; Sánchez Jiménez, Araceli; van Kesteren, Petra C E; Oomen, Agnes G

2015-11-27

An engineered nanomaterial (ENM) may actually consist of a population of primary particles, aggregates and agglomerates of various sizes. Furthermore, their physico-chemical characteristics may change during the various life-cycle stages. It will probably not be feasible to test all varieties of all ENMs for possible health and environmental risks. There is therefore a need to further develop the approaches for risk assessment of ENMs. Within the EU FP7 project Managing Risks of Nanoparticles (MARINA) a two-phase risk assessment strategy has been developed. In Phase 1 (Problem framing) a base set of information is considered, relevant exposure scenarios (RESs) are identified and the scope for Phase 2 (Risk assessment) is established. The relevance of an RES is indicated by information on exposure, fate/kinetics and/or hazard; these three domains are included as separate pillars that contain specific tools. Phase 2 consists of an iterative process of risk characterization, identification of data needs and integrated collection and evaluation of data on the three domains, until sufficient information is obtained to conclude on possible risks in a RES. Only data are generated that are considered to be needed for the purpose of risk assessment. A fourth pillar, risk characterization, is defined and it contains risk assessment tools. This strategy describes a flexible and efficient approach for data collection and risk assessment which is essential to ensure safety of ENMs. Further developments are needed to provide guidance and make the MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy operational. Case studies will be needed to refine the strategy.

The MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy: A Flexible Strategy for Efficient Information Collection and Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Peter M. J. Bos

2015-11-01

Full Text Available An engineered nanomaterial (ENM may actually consist of a population of primary particles, aggregates and agglomerates of various sizes. Furthermore, their physico-chemical characteristics may change during the various life-cycle stages. It will probably not be feasible to test all varieties of all ENMs for possible health and environmental risks. There is therefore a need to further develop the approaches for risk assessment of ENMs. Within the EU FP7 project Managing Risks of Nanoparticles (MARINA a two-phase risk assessment strategy has been developed. In Phase 1 (Problem framing a base set of information is considered, relevant exposure scenarios (RESs are identified and the scope for Phase 2 (Risk assessment is established. The relevance of an RES is indicated by information on exposure, fate/kinetics and/or hazard; these three domains are included as separate pillars that contain specific tools. Phase 2 consists of an iterative process of risk characterization, identification of data needs and integrated collection and evaluation of data on the three domains, until sufficient information is obtained to conclude on possible risks in a RES. Only data are generated that are considered to be needed for the purpose of risk assessment. A fourth pillar, risk characterization, is defined and it contains risk assessment tools. This strategy describes a flexible and efficient approach for data collection and risk assessment which is essential to ensure safety of ENMs. Further developments are needed to provide guidance and make the MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy operational. Case studies will be needed to refine the strategy.

Business risks, functions, methods of assessment and ways to reduce risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A.V. Mihalchuk

2015-06-01

Full Text Available For successful existence in a market economy entrepreneur have to take bold actions, and this increases the risk. The article describes the concept of entrepreneurship and business risk, positive and negative aspects of functions of risk in business. Therefore, it is necessary to assess the risk properly and be able to manage it to achieve the most effective results in the market. In market conditions the problem of assessing and accounting market becomes independent theoretical and practical significance as an important component of the theory and practice of management. Risk - a key element of business activities. Development of risk situations can lead to both the occurrence of adverse effects (losses, lost profits, and positive results for a company in the form of increased profit. This article describes: the concept of entrepreneurship, risk and business risks, characteristic of positive and negative aspects of risk functions in business, methods of assessment and risk reduction, shows formulae and examples you can use to assess risk in an enterprise. Analyzing already established methods of risk assessment a number of rules were proposed in order to reduce business risk.

Risk Assessment

OpenAIRE

Hrdová, Edita

2012-01-01

This diploma thesis is focused on companies risk evaluation before endorsement of Loan deriving from business relationships. The aim of this thesis is not only to describe individual steps of risk assessment, but also perfom analysis of particular companies based on available data, i.e. Balance sheet, Profit and Loss statement and external rating and after that propose solution for each company. My analysis will be based on theoretical knowledge, further on experience related to my job role a...

HTGR accident and risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Silady, F.A.; Everline, C.J.; Houghton, W.J.

1982-01-01

This paper is a synopsis of the high-temperature gas-cooled reactor probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) performed by General Atomic Company. Principal topics presented include: HTGR safety assessments, peer interfaces, safety research, process gas explosions, quantitative safety goals, licensing applications of PRA, enhanced safety, investment risk assessments, and PRA design integration

Anthropic Risk Assessment on Biodiversity

Science.gov (United States)

Piragnolo, M.; Pirotti, F.; Vettore, A.; Salogni, G.

2013-01-01

This paper presents a methodology for risk assessment of anthropic activities on habitats and species. The method has been developed for Veneto Region, in order to simplify and improve the quality of EIA procedure (VINCA). Habitats and species, animals and plants, are protected by European Directive 92/43/EEC and 2009/147/EC but they are subject at hazard due to pollution produced by human activities. Biodiversity risks may conduct to deterioration and disturbance in ecological niches, with consequence of loss of biodiversity. Ecological risk assessment applied on Natura 2000 network, is needed to best practice of management and monitoring of environment and natural resources. Threats, pressure and activities, stress and indicators may be managed by geodatabase and analysed using GIS technology. The method used is the classic risk assessment in ecological context, and it defines the natural hazard as influence, element of risk as interference and vulnerability. Also it defines a new parameter called pressure. It uses risk matrix for the risk analysis on spatial and temporal scale. The methodology is qualitative and applies the precautionary principle in environmental assessment. The final product is a matrix which excludes the risk and could find application in the development of a territorial information system.

Risk assessment and the environment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fisk, D.J.

1992-01-01

This paper reviews the use of risk assessment techniques in the field of environment protection. I will argue that in some important instances the development of environment policy has been a source of fruitful development of a risk based methodologies. In other cases the importation of risk assessment techniques has proved much more problematic. As the scope of environmental regulation increases so does the possibility of inconsistent and arbitrary solutions to problems. The need for a more systematic approach to the development of environmental regulation has never been stronger, so it is important to understand the reasons for the mixed success of risk assessment. This applies equally to those nations with long traditions of the regulation of private sector industry and those just beginning on this course. The way ahead may be to extend our ideas of how to express risk and uncertainty. Some of the recent cause celebres of environment policy show this challenge very clearly. As an example, this paper will look at the problem of assessing the risk of man-made climate change

Risk assessment and the environment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fisk, D J [Department of the Environment (United Kingdom)

1992-07-01

This paper reviews the use of risk assessment techniques in the field of environment protection. I will argue that in some important instances the development of environment policy has been a source of fruitful development of a risk based methodologies. In other cases the importation of risk assessment techniques has proved much more problematic. As the scope of environmental regulation increases so does the possibility of inconsistent and arbitrary solutions to problems. The need for a more systematic approach to the development of environmental regulation has never been stronger, so it is important to understand the reasons for the mixed success of risk assessment. This applies equally to those nations with long traditions of the regulation of private sector industry and those just beginning on this course. The way ahead may be to extend our ideas of how to express risk and uncertainty. Some of the recent cause celebres of environment policy show this challenge very clearly. As an example, this paper will look at the problem of assessing the risk of man-made climate change.

Nuclear insurance risk assessment using risk-based methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wendland, W.G.

1992-01-01

This paper presents American Nuclear Insurers' (ANI's) and Mutual Atomic Energy Liability Underwriters' (MAELU's) process and experience for conducting nuclear insurance risk assessments using a risk-based methodology. The process is primarily qualitative and uses traditional insurance risk assessment methods and an approach developed under the auspices of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) in which ANI/MAELU is an active sponsor. This process assists ANI's technical resources in identifying where to look for insurance risk in an industry in which insurance exposure tends to be dynamic and nonactuarial. The process is an evolving one that also seeks to minimize the impact on insureds while maintaining a mutually agreeable risk tolerance

Personality Profiles of Effective Leadership Performance in Assessment Centers.

Science.gov (United States)

Parr, Alissa D; Lanza, Stephanie T; Bernthal, Paul

2016-01-01

Most research examining the relationship between effective leadership and personality has focused on individual personality traits. However, profiles of personality traits more fully describe individuals, and these profiles may be important as they relate to leadership. This study used latent class analysis to examine how personality traits combine and interact to form subpopulations of leaders, and how these subpopulations relate to performance criteria. Using a sample of 2,461 executive-level leaders, six personality profiles were identified: Unpredictable Leaders with Low Diligence (7.3%); Conscientious, Backend Leaders (3.6%); Unpredictable Leaders (8.6%); Creative Communicators (20.8%); Power Players (32.4%); and Protocol Followers (27.1%). One profile performed well on all criteria in an assessment center; remaining profiles exhibited strengths and weaknesses across criteria. Implications and future directions for research are highlighted.

Risk assessment for halogenated solvents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Travis, C.C.

1988-01-01

A recent development in the cancer risk area is the advent of biologically based pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic models. These models allow for the incorporation of biological and mechanistic data into the risk assessment process. These advances will not only improve the risk assessment process for halogenated solvents but will stimulate and guide basic research in the biological area

RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT: ETHYLENE OXIDE ...

Science.gov (United States)

This document describes the residual risk assessment for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. For stationary sources, section 112 (f) of the Clean Air Act requires EPA to assess risks to human health and the environment following implementation of technology-based control standards. If these technology-based control standards do not provide an ample margin of safety, then EPA is required to promulgate addtional standards. This document describes the methodology and results of the residual risk assessment performed for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. The results of this analyiss will assist EPA in determining whether a residual risk rule for this source category is appropriate.

Lowering risk score profile during PCI in multiple vessel disease is associated with low adverse events: The ERACI risk score.

Science.gov (United States)

Rodriguez, Alfredo E; Fernandez-Pereira, Carlos; Mieres, Juan; Pavlovsky, Hernan; Del Pozo, Juan; Rodriguez-Granillo, Alfredo M; Antoniucci, David

2018-02-13

In recent years angiographic risk scores have been introduced in clinical practice to stratify different levels of risk after percutaneous coronary interventions (PCI). The SYNTAX score included all intermediate lesions in vessels ≥1.5 mm, consequently, multiple stent implantation was required. Four years ago, we built a new angiographic score in order to guide PCI strategy avoiding stent deployment both in intermediate stenosis as in small vessels, therefore these were not scored (ERACI risk score). The purpose of this mini review is to validate the strategy of PCI guided by this scoring, taking into account long term follow up outcomes of two observational and prospective registries where this policy was used. With this new risk score we have modified risk profile of our patient's candidates for PCI or coronary artery bypass surgery lowering the risk and PCI. The simple exclusion of small vessels and intermediate stenosis from the revascularization approach resulted in clinical outcome comparable with the one of fractional flow reserve guided revascularization. Low events rate at late follow up observed in both studies was also in agreement with guided PCI by functional lesion assessment observed by Syntax II registry, where investigators found lower events rate in spite of a few number of stents implanted per patient. use of ERACI risk scores may significantly reclassify patients into a lower risk category and be associated with low adverse events rate. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Risk assessment: An employer's perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Williams, K.C.

1992-01-01

There is no question that a careful assessment of risk is essential for safe industrial operations. For that reason, a thoughtful analysis of the effectiveness of available risk assessment technologies is prerequisite for responsible corporate decision making. An 'employer's' perspective on risk assessment cannot be constrained by any artificial restrictions which that term may imply. In reality, all those who are involved in the execution of an industrial enterprise: managers, regulators, the affected public, and especially those employees exposed to hazards, are necessarily partners in assessment of risk. The perspective of this paper is that of the oil and gas industry, in which the author's organization, Exxon Company, International, participates. The paper addresses what Exxon requires to assess and manage risk in its worldwide operations. The author is aware, however, through contacts with industry colleagues, that some of Exxon's initiatives are representative of similar actions being taken by others. 1992 is the European Year of Safety, Health and Hygiene, coinciding with the United Kingdom's Presidency of the European Council. It is also the year in which new 'goal-setting' regulations covering safety in the U.K. offshore oil industry were put forward by the Health and Safety Commission. These regulations, based largely on Lord Cullen's recommendations following the Piper Alpha tragedy, set the pace for safety in the British North Sea and will significantly impact the safety of offshore oil installations worldwide. The requirement for risk assessment, using a systematic process of analysing and evaluating risk, is a key component of this safety regime

Risk assessment: An employer's perspective

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Williams, K C [Exxon International (United States)

1992-07-01

There is no question that a careful assessment of risk is essential for safe industrial operations. For that reason, a thoughtful analysis of the effectiveness of available risk assessment technologies is prerequisite for responsible corporate decision making. An 'employer's' perspective on risk assessment cannot be constrained by any artificial restrictions which that term may imply. In reality, all those who are involved in the execution of an industrial enterprise: managers, regulators, the affected public, and especially those employees exposed to hazards, are necessarily partners in assessment of risk. The perspective of this paper is that of the oil and gas industry, in which the author's organization, Exxon Company, International, participates. The paper addresses what Exxon requires to assess and manage risk in its worldwide operations. The author is aware, however, through contacts with industry colleagues, that some of Exxon's initiatives are representative of similar actions being taken by others. 1992 is the European Year of Safety, Health and Hygiene, coinciding with the United Kingdom's Presidency of the European Council. It is also the year in which new 'goal-setting' regulations covering safety in the U.K. offshore oil industry were put forward by the Health and Safety Commission. These regulations, based largely on Lord Cullen's recommendations following the Piper Alpha tragedy, set the pace for safety in the British North Sea and will significantly impact the safety of offshore oil installations worldwide. The requirement for risk assessment, using a systematic process of analysing and evaluating risk, is a key component of this safety regime.

Lifetime risks for aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage: multivariable risk stratification.

Science.gov (United States)

Vlak, Monique H M; Rinkel, Gabriel J E; Greebe, Paut; Greving, Jacoba P; Algra, Ale

2013-06-01

The overall incidence of aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage (aSAH) in western populations is around 9 per 100 000 person-years, which confers to a lifetime risk of around half per cent. Risk factors for aSAH are usually expressed as relative risks and suggest that absolute risks vary considerably according to risk factor profiles, but such estimates are lacking. We aimed to estimate incidence and lifetime risks of aSAH according to risk factor profiles. We used data from 250 patients admitted with aSAH and 574 sex-matched and age-matched controls, who were randomly retrieved from general practitioners files. We determined independent prognostic factors with multivariable logistic regression analyses and assessed discriminatory performance using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Based on the prognostic model we predicted incidences and lifetime risks of aSAH for different risk factor profiles. The four strongest independent predictors for aSAH, namely current smoking (OR 6.0; 95% CI 4.1 to 8.6), a positive family history for aSAH (4.0; 95% CI 2.3 to 7.0), hypertension (2.4; 95% CI 1.5 to 3.8) and hypercholesterolaemia (0.2; 95% CI 0.1 to 0.4), were used in the final prediction model. This model had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.73 (95% CI 0.69 to 0.76). Depending on sex, age and the four predictors, the incidence of aSAH ranged from 0.4/100 000 to 298/100 000 person-years and lifetime risk between 0.02% and 7.2%. The incidence and lifetime risk of aSAH in the general population varies widely according to risk factor profiles. Whether persons with high risks benefit from screening should be assessed in cost-effectiveness studies.

Late-Onset Alzheimer's Disease Polygenic Risk Profile Score Predicts Hippocampal Function.

Science.gov (United States)

Xiao, Ena; Chen, Qiang; Goldman, Aaron L; Tan, Hao Yang; Healy, Kaitlin; Zoltick, Brad; Das, Saumitra; Kolachana, Bhaskar; Callicott, Joseph H; Dickinson, Dwight; Berman, Karen F; Weinberger, Daniel R; Mattay, Venkata S

2017-11-01

We explored the cumulative effect of several late-onset Alzheimer's disease (LOAD) risk loci using a polygenic risk profile score (RPS) approach on measures of hippocampal function, cognition, and brain morphometry. In a sample of 231 healthy control subjects (19-55 years of age), we used an RPS to study the effect of several LOAD risk loci reported in a recent meta-analysis on hippocampal function (determined by its engagement with blood oxygen level-dependent functional magnetic resonance imaging during episodic memory) and several cognitive metrics. We also studied effects on brain morphometry in an overlapping sample of 280 subjects. There was almost no significant association of LOAD-RPS with cognitive or morphometric measures. However, there was a significant negative relationship between LOAD-RPS and hippocampal function (familywise error [small volume correction-hippocampal region of interest] p risk score based on APOE haplotype, and for a combined LOAD-RPS + APOE haplotype risk profile score (p risk genes on hippocampal function even in healthy volunteers. The effect of LOAD-RPS on hippocampal function in the relative absence of any effect on cognitive and morphometric measures is consistent with the reported temporal characteristics of LOAD biomarkers with the earlier manifestation of synaptic dysfunction before morphometric and cognitive changes. Copyright © 2017 Society of Biological Psychiatry. All rights reserved.

Defining a Contemporary Ischemic Heart Disease Genetic Risk Profile Using Historical Data.

Science.gov (United States)

Mosley, Jonathan D; van Driest, Sara L; Wells, Quinn S; Shaffer, Christian M; Edwards, Todd L; Bastarache, Lisa; McCarty, Catherine A; Thompson, Will; Chute, Christopher G; Jarvik, Gail P; Crosslin, David R; Larson, Eric B; Kullo, Iftikhar J; Pacheco, Jennifer A; Peissig, Peggy L; Brilliant, Murray H; Linneman, James G; Denny, Josh C; Roden, Dan M

2016-12-01

Continued reductions in morbidity and mortality attributable to ischemic heart disease (IHD) require an understanding of the changing epidemiology of this disease. We hypothesized that we could use genetic correlations, which quantify the shared genetic architectures of phenotype pairs and extant risk factors from a historical prospective study to define the risk profile of a contemporary IHD phenotype. We used 37 phenotypes measured in the ARIC study (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities; n=7716, European ancestry subjects) and clinical diagnoses from an electronic health record (EHR) data set (n=19 093). All subjects had genome-wide single-nucleotide polymorphism genotyping. We measured pairwise genetic correlations (rG) between the ARIC and EHR phenotypes using linear mixed models. The genetic correlation estimates between the ARIC risk factors and the EHR IHD were modestly linearly correlated with hazards ratio estimates for incident IHD in ARIC (Pearson correlation [r]=0.62), indicating that the 2 IHD phenotypes had differing risk profiles. For comparison, this correlation was 0.80 when comparing EHR and ARIC type 2 diabetes mellitus phenotypes. The EHR IHD phenotype was most strongly correlated with ARIC metabolic phenotypes, including total:high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio (rG=-0.44, P=0.005), high-density lipoprotein (rG=-0.48, P=0.005), systolic blood pressure (rG=0.44, P=0.02), and triglycerides (rG=0.38, P=0.02). EHR phenotypes related to type 2 diabetes mellitus, atherosclerotic, and hypertensive diseases were also genetically correlated with these ARIC risk factors. The EHR IHD risk profile differed from ARIC and indicates that treatment and prevention efforts in this population should target hypertensive and metabolic disease. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

Risk Profile of Symptomatic Lacunar Stroke Versus Nonlobar Intracerebral Hemorrhage.

Science.gov (United States)

Morotti, Andrea; Paciaroni, Maurizio; Zini, Andrea; Silvestrelli, Giorgio; Del Zotto, Elisabetta; Caso, Valeria; Dell'Acqua, Maria Luisa; Simone, Anna Maria; Lanari, Alessia; Costa, Paolo; Poli, Loris; De Giuli, Valeria; Gamba, Massimo; Ciccone, Alfonso; Ritelli, Marco; Di Castelnuovo, Augusto; Iacoviello, Licia; Colombi, Marina; Agnelli, Giancarlo; Grassi, Mario; de Gaetano, Giovanni; Padovani, Alessandro; Pezzini, Alessandro

2016-08-01

Although lacunar stroke (LS) and deep intracerebral hemorrhage (dICH) represent acute manifestations of the same pathological process involving cerebral small vessels (small vessel disease), it remains unclear what factors predispose to one phenotype rather than the other at individual level. Consecutive patients with either acute symptomatic LS or dICH were prospectively enrolled as part of a multicenter Italian study. We compared the risk factor profile of the 2 subgroups using multivariable logistic regression. During a time course of 9.5 years, 1931 subjects (1434 LS and 497 dICH; mean age, 71.3±13.3 years; males, 55.5%) qualified for the analysis. Current smoking was associated with LS (odds ratio [OR], 2.17; Prisk factor profile of dICH differs from that associated with LS. This might be used for disease risk stratification at individual level. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

RELEVANCE OF PROCESS RISK ASSESSMENT IN AIRLINES

OpenAIRE

Oksana G. Feoktistova; Igor K. Turkin; Sergey V. Barinov

2017-01-01

The notion of “the concept on assumed risk” that took over from the outdated concept of absolute security is analyzed, the increasing significance of operating risk assessment at the present stage is noted. Some basic risk assessment techniques are considered. Matrix technique of risk assessment is considered more thoroughly, and it may be used in risk assessment of airlines in the context of labour protection management system.The ability to correctly assess risks and develop appropriate pre...

An abuse of risk assessment: how regulatory agencies improperly adopted LNT for cancer risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Calabrese, Edward J

2015-04-01

The Genetics Panel of the National Academy of Sciences' Committee on Biological Effects of Atomic Radiation (BEAR) recommended the adoption of the linear dose-response model in 1956, abandoning the threshold dose-response for genetic risk assessments. This recommendation was quickly generalized to include somatic cells for cancer risk assessment and later was instrumental in the adoption of linearity for carcinogen risk assessment by the Environmental Protection Agency. The Genetics Panel failed to provide any scientific assessment to support this recommendation and refused to do so when later challenged by other leading scientists. Thus, the linearity model used in cancer risk assessment was based on ideology rather than science and originated with the recommendation of the NAS BEAR Committee Genetics Panel. Historical documentation in support of these conclusions is provided in the transcripts of the Panel meetings and in previously unexamined correspondence among Panel members.

Vulnerability, risk perception, and health profile of marginalized people exposed to multiple built-environment stressors in Worcester, Massachusetts: a pilot project.

Science.gov (United States)

Downs, Timothy J; Ross, Laurie; Goble, Robert; Subedi, Rajendra; Greenberg, Sara; Taylor, Octavia

2011-04-01

Millions of low-income people of diverse ethnicities inhabit stressful old urban industrial neighborhoods. Yet we know little about the health impacts of built-environment stressors and risk perceptions in such settings; we lack even basic health profiles. Difficult access is one reason (it took us 30 months to survey 80 households); the lack of multifaceted survey tools is another. We designed and implemented a pilot vulnerability assessment tool in Worcester, Massachusetts. We answer: (1) How can we assess vulnerability to multiple stressors? (2) What is the nature of complex vulnerability-including risk perceptions and health profiles? (3) How can findings be used by our wider community, and what lessons did we learn? (4) What implications arise for science and policy? We sought a holistic picture of neighborhood life. A reasonably representative sample of 80 respondents captured data for 254 people about: demographics, community concerns and resources, time-activity patterns, health information, risk/stress perceptions, and resources/capacities for coping. Our key findings derive partly from the survey data and partly from our experience in obtaining those data. Data strongly suggest complex vulnerability dominated by psychosocial stress. Unexpected significant gender and ethnic disease disparities emerged: notably, females have twice the disease burden of males, and white females twice the burden of females of color (p Risk Analysis.

A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify

A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

2013-01-01

An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify

Risk indices in comparative risk assessment studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hubert, P.

1984-01-01

More than a decade ago the development of comparative risk assessment studies aroused overwhelming interest. There was no doubt that data on the health and safety aspects of energy systems would greatly benefit, or even end, the debate on nuclear energy. Although such attempts are still strongly supported, the rose-coloured expectations of the early days have faded. The high uncertainties, and the contradictory aspect, of the first results might explain this evolution. The loose connection between the range of computed risk indices and the questions on which the debate was focused is another reason for this decline in interest. Important research work is being carried out aiming at reducing the different kinds of uncertainties. Rather than the uncertainties, the paper considers the meaning of available risk indices and proposes more significant indices with respect to the goals of risk assessment. First, the indices which are of frequent use in comparative studies are listed. The stress is put on a French comparative study from which most examples are drawn. Secondly, the increase in magnitude of the indices and the decrease in the attributability of the risk to a given system is shown to be a consequence of the trend towards more comprehensive analyses. Thirdly, the ambiguity of such indices as the collective occupational risk is underlined, and a possible solution is suggested. Whenever risk assessments are related to pragmatic decision making problems it is possible to find satisfactory risk indices. The development of cost-effectiveness analyses and the proposals for quantitative safety goals clearly demonstrate this point. In the field of comparison of social impacts some proposals are made, but there remain some gaps still to be filled. (author)

Workplace Health Promotion: Assessing the Cardiopulmonary Risks of the Construction Workforce in Hong Kong.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sze Pui Pamela Tin

Full Text Available Health needs of different employee subgroups within an industry can differ. We report the results of a workplace cardiopulmonary risk assessment targeting workers and support staff in the construction industry.A free worksite-based cardiopulmonary risk assessment for 1,903 workers on infrastructural contracts across Hong Kong was initiated in May 2014. Cardiopulmonary risk screening was performed in 60-minute blocks for approximately 30 workers/block with individualized feedback and lifestyle counseling. Risk profiles stratified by occupational roles are differentiated using the χ2-test for categorical and Student's t-test for continuous variables.Most construction workers and clerks/professionals were male (83.2% and 71.2%, respectively and Chinese (78.7% and 90.9%, respectively. Construction workers were older (mean: 44.9 years, SD 11.5 and less well-educated (6.1% received tertiary education than clerks/professionals (35.0 years, 10.7; 72.6% received tertiary education, but more likely to be hypertensive (22.6% vs. 15.4%, p<0.001, overweight/obese (71.7% vs. 56.6%, p<0.001, centrally obese (53.1% vs. 35.5%, p<0.001, and have undesirable levels of high-density lipoprotein (41.6% vs. 35.8%, p<0.05 and diabetic levels of non-fasting blood glucose (4.3% vs. 1.6%, p<0.05. Up to 12.6% of construction workers and 9.7% of office clerks/professions had three or more metabolic syndrome risk factors. While construction workers were more likely than clerks/professionals to be daily smokers, they reported better work-related physical activity and diet.Simple worksite health risk screening can identify potentially high-cardiopulmonary-risk construction industry employee subgroups for onward confirmatory referral. Separate cardiopulmonary health promotion strategies that account for the varying lifestyle profiles of the two employee subgroups in the industry appear justified.

Aspects regarding explosion risk assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Părăian Mihaela

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Explosive risk occurs in all activities involving flammable substances in the form of gases, vapors, mists or dusts which, in mixture with air, can generate an explosive atmosphere. As explosions can cause human losses and huge material damage, the assessment of the explosion risk and the establishment of appropriate measures to reduce it to acceptable levels according to the standards and standards in force is of particular importance for the safety and health of people and goods.There is no yet a recognized method of assessing the explosion risk, but regardless of the applied method, the likelihood of an explosive atmosphere occurrence has to be determined, together with the occurrence of an efficient ignition source and the magnitude of foreseeable consequences. In assessment processes, consequences analysis has a secondary importance since it’s likely that explosions would always involve considerable damage, starting from important material damages and up to human damages that could lead to death.The purpose of the work is to highlight the important principles and elements to be taken into account for a specific risk assessment. An essential element in assessing the risk of explosion in workplaces where explosive atmospheres may occur is technical installations and personal protective equipment (PPE that must be designed, manufactured, installed and maintained so that they cannot generate a source of ignition. Explosion prevention and protection requirements are governed by specific norms and standards, and a main part of the explosion risk assessment is related to the assessment of the compliance of the equipment / installation with these requirements.

Time trends in osteoporosis risk factor profiles

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Holm, Jakob Præst; Hyldstrup, Lars; Jensen, Jens-Erik Beck

2016-01-01

The aim of this article was to identify prevalent osteoporosis risk factors, medications and comorbidities associated with bone mineral density (BMD). Furthermore to evaluate changes in risk factor profiles over 12 years. 6285 women consecutively referred to an osteoporosis specialist clinic were...... was established in a real-life setting. The prevalence of osteoporosis and proportion of patient's having comorbidity's associated with osteoporosis were increasing during the inclusion period (start 23.8 %, end 29.7 %). Increasing age (OR = 1.05), current smoking (OR = 1.18), estrogen deficiency (OR = 1.......7), hyperthyroidism (OR = 1.5), previous major osteoporotic fracture (OR = 1.7), former osteoporosis treatment (OR = 3.5), higher BMI (OR = 0.87), use of calcium supplementation (OR = 1.2), high exercise level (OR = 0.7), and use of thiazide diuretics (OR = 0.7) were identified as predictors of osteoporosis by DXA...

Cost analysis and financial risk profile for severe reactor accidents at Waterford-3

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cutbush, J.D.; Abbott, E.C.; Carpenter, W.L. Jr.

1992-01-01

To support Louisiana Power and Light Company (LP and L) in determining an appropriate level of nuclear property insurance for Waterford Steam Electric Station, Unit 3 (Waterford-3), ABZ, Incorporated, performed a series of cost analyses and developed a financial risk profile. This five-month study, conducted in 1991, identified the potential Waterford-3 severe reactor accidents and described each from a cleanup perspective, estimated the cost and schedule to cleanup from each accident, developed a probability distribution of associated financial exposure, and developed a profile of financial risk as a function of insurance coverage

Identifying at-risk profiles and protective factors for problem gambling: A longitudinal study across adolescence and early adulthood.

Science.gov (United States)

Allami, Youssef; Vitaro, Frank; Brendgen, Mara; Carbonneau, René; Tremblay, Richard E

2018-05-01

Past studies have identified various risk and protective factors for problem gambling (PG). However, no study has examined the interplay between these factors using a combination of person-centered and variable-centered approaches embedded within a longitudinal design. The present study aimed to (a) identify distinct profiles in early adolescence based on a set of risk factors commonly associated with PG (impulsivity, depression, anxiety, drug-alcohol use, aggressiveness, and antisociality), (b) explore the difference in reported gambling problems between these profiles during midadolescence and early adulthood, and (c) identify family- and peer-related variables that could operate as protective or compensatory factors in this context. Two samples were used: (a) a population sample (N = 1,033) living in low socioeconomic-status neighborhoods and (b) a population sample (N = 3,017) representative of students attending Quebec schools. Latent profile analyses were conducted to identify at-risk profiles based on individual risk factors measured at age 12 years. Negative binomial regression models were estimated to compare profiles in terms of their reported gambling problems at ages 16 and 23. Finally, family- and peer-related variables measured at age 14 were included to test their protective or compensatory role with respect to the link between at-risk profiles and gambling problems. Four profiles were identified: well-adjusted, internalizing, externalizing, and comorbid. Compared to the well-adjusted profile, the externalizing and comorbid profiles reported more gambling problems at ages 16 and 23, but the internalizing profile did not differ significantly. Various protective and compensatory factors emerged for each profile at both time points. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Development and pilot feasibility study of a health information technology tool to calculate mortality risk for patients with asymptomatic carotid stenosis: the Carotid Risk Assessment Tool (CARAT)

OpenAIRE

Faerber, Adrienne E; Horvath, Rebecca; Stillman, Carey; O?Connell, Melissa L; Hamilton, Amy L; Newhall, Karina A; Likosky, Donald S; Goodney, Philip P

2015-01-01

Background Patients with no history of stroke but with stenosis of the carotid arteries can reduce the risk of future stroke with surgery or stenting. At present, a physicians? ability to recommend optimal treatments based on an individual?s risk profile requires estimating the likelihood that a patient will have a poor peri-operative outcomes and the likelihood that the patient will survive long enough to gain benefit from the procedure. We describe the development of the CArotid Risk Assess...

Chlorine transportation risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lautkaski, Risto; Mankamo, Tuomas.

1977-02-01

An assessment has been made on the toxication risk of the population due to the bulk rail transportation of liquid chlorine in Finland. Fourteen typical rail accidents were selected and their probability was estimated using the accident file of the Finnish State Railways. The probability of a chlorine leak was assessed for each type of accident separately using four leak size categories. The assessed leakage probability was dominated by station accidents, especially by collisions of a chlorine tanker and a locomotive. Toxication hazard areas were estimated for the leak categories. A simple model was constructed to describe the centring of the densely populated areas along the railway line. A comparison was made between the obtained risk and some other risks including those due to nuclear reactor accidents. (author)

Probabilistic risk assessment, Volume I

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1982-01-01

This book contains 158 papers presented at the International Topical Meeting on Probabilistic Risk Assessment held by the American Nuclear Society (ANS) and the European Nuclear Society (ENS) in Port Chester, New York in 1981. The meeting was second in a series of three. The main focus of the meeting was on the safety of light water reactors. The papers discuss safety goals and risk assessment. Quantitative safety goals, risk assessment in non-nuclear technologies, and operational experience and data base are also covered. Included is an address by Dr. Chauncey Starr

Risk assessment in maritime transportation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Soares, C. Guedes; Teixeira, A.P.

2001-01-01

A review is presented of different approaches to quantify the risk in maritime transportation. The discussion of several accident statistics provides a global assessment of the risk levels and its differentiation in ship types and main types of ship losses. Early studies in the probability of ship loss by foundering and capsizing are reviewed. The approaches used to assess the risk of structural design are addressed. Finally a brief account is given of recent development of using formal safety assessments to support decision making on legislation applicable internationally to maritime transportation

Framework for ecological risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rodier, D.; Norton, S.

1992-02-01

Increased interest in ecological issues such as global climate change, habitat loss, acid deposition, reduced biological diversity, and the ecological impacts of pesticides and toxic chemicals prompts this U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) report, A Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment ('Framework Report'). The report describes basic elements, or a framework, for evaluating scientific information on the adverse effects of physical and chemical stressors on the environment. The framework offers starting principles and a simple structure as guidance for current ecological risk assessments and as a foundation for future EPA proposals for risk assessment guidelines

Reliability of risk-adjusted outcomes for profiling hospital surgical quality.

Science.gov (United States)

Krell, Robert W; Hozain, Ahmed; Kao, Lillian S; Dimick, Justin B

2014-05-01

Quality improvement platforms commonly use risk-adjusted morbidity and mortality to profile hospital performance. However, given small hospital caseloads and low event rates for some procedures, it is unclear whether these outcomes reliably reflect hospital performance. To determine the reliability of risk-adjusted morbidity and mortality for hospital performance profiling using clinical registry data. A retrospective cohort study was conducted using data from the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program, 2009. Participants included all patients (N = 55,466) who underwent colon resection, pancreatic resection, laparoscopic gastric bypass, ventral hernia repair, abdominal aortic aneurysm repair, and lower extremity bypass. Outcomes included risk-adjusted overall morbidity, severe morbidity, and mortality. We assessed reliability (0-1 scale: 0, completely unreliable; and 1, perfectly reliable) for all 3 outcomes. We also quantified the number of hospitals meeting minimum acceptable reliability thresholds (>0.70, good reliability; and >0.50, fair reliability) for each outcome. For overall morbidity, the most common outcome studied, the mean reliability depended on sample size (ie, how high the hospital caseload was) and the event rate (ie, how frequently the outcome occurred). For example, mean reliability for overall morbidity was low for abdominal aortic aneurysm repair (reliability, 0.29; sample size, 25 cases per year; and event rate, 18.3%). In contrast, mean reliability for overall morbidity was higher for colon resection (reliability, 0.61; sample size, 114 cases per year; and event rate, 26.8%). Colon resection (37.7% of hospitals), pancreatic resection (7.1% of hospitals), and laparoscopic gastric bypass (11.5% of hospitals) were the only procedures for which any hospitals met a reliability threshold of 0.70 for overall morbidity. Because severe morbidity and mortality are less frequent outcomes, their mean

Current approaches to cyanotoxin risk assessment and risk management around the globe.

Science.gov (United States)

Ibelings, Bas W; Backer, Lorraine C; Kardinaal, W Edwin A; Chorus, Ingrid

2015-12-01

assumptions such as bloom duration, average body size and the amount of water consumed while swimming vary according to local circumstances. Furthermore, for toxins with incomplete toxicological data elements of expert judgment become more relevant and this also leads to a larger degree of variation between countries' thresholds triggering certain actions. Cyanobacterial blooms and their cyanotoxin content are a highly variable phenomenon, largely depending on local conditions, and likely concentrations can be assessed and managed best if the specific conditions of the locality are known and their impact on bloom occurrence are understood. Risk Management Frameworks, such as for example the Water Safety Plan concept of the WHO and the 'bathing water profile' of the European Union are suggested to be effective approaches for preventing human exposure by managing toxic cyanobacteria from catchment to consumer for drinking water and at recreational sites.

Risk assessment instruments in clinical practice.

Science.gov (United States)

Côté, Gilles; Crocker, Anne G; Nicholls, Tonia L; Seto, Michael C

2012-04-01

To determine whether the items in one of the most widely validated instruments of violence risk assessment, the Historical-Clinical-Risk Management-20 (HCR-20), are used in review board hearings to assess the risk of violence by people found Not Criminally Responsible on account of Mental Disorder (NCRMD). This study was conducted from October 2004 to August 2006 in Quebec's sole forensic psychiatric hospital and 2 large civil psychiatric hospitals designated for the care of people declared NCRMD in the Montreal metropolitan area. The risk assessments presented by clinicians at annual review board hearings and the boards' rationale for the release or detention of people found NCRMD were contrasted with the risk assessments conducted by the research team using the HCR-20. The final sample was comprised of 96 men. Very few of the risk factors identified by prior research (HCR-20 items) were mentioned in the hearing process, whether in clinical reports, discussions during the hearing, or in the disposition justification. The findings confirm that there remains a significant gap between research evidence and risk assessment practice.

Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van der Knaap, L.M.; Leenarts, L.E.W.; Born, M.P.; Oosterveld, P.

2012-01-01

Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the

Quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS)

Science.gov (United States)

Weinstock, Robert M (Inventor); Smidts, Carol S (Inventor); Mosleh, Ali (Inventor); Chang, Yung-Hsien (Inventor); Swaminathan, Sankaran (Inventor); Groen, Francisco J (Inventor); Tan, Zhibin (Inventor)

2001-01-01

A quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS) builds a risk model of a system for which risk of failure is being assessed, then analyzes the risk of the system corresponding to the risk model. The QRAS performs sensitivity analysis of the risk model by altering fundamental components and quantifications built into the risk model, then re-analyzes the risk of the system using the modifications. More particularly, the risk model is built by building a hierarchy, creating a mission timeline, quantifying failure modes, and building/editing event sequence diagrams. Multiplicities, dependencies, and redundancies of the system are included in the risk model. For analysis runs, a fixed baseline is first constructed and stored. This baseline contains the lowest level scenarios, preserved in event tree structure. The analysis runs, at any level of the hierarchy and below, access this baseline for risk quantitative computation as well as ranking of particular risks. A standalone Tool Box capability exists, allowing the user to store application programs within QRAS.

An assessment of professionalism on students' Facebook profiles.

Science.gov (United States)

Nason, K N; Byrne, H; Nason, G J; O'Connell, B

2018-02-01

With the advent of social media, healthcare professionals not only need to be conscious of professionalism in their face-to-face interactions but also in the electronic environment. The aim of this study was to assess the level of online professionalism on Facebook profiles available for public viewing of students from a dental school. A search was performed via a new Facebook account of all students in the University Dental School (dental hygiene, dental nursing, dental science and dental technology). Profiles were categorised as 'private' or 'public'. Demographic details and photographs/comments of unprofessional behaviour were recorded for each individual Facebook profile. Each profile was subsequently scored with regard to professionalism based on a previously published score. There are a total of 287 students in the dental school. Of these, 62% (n = 177) had a Facebook account. Three per cent (n = 6) had a public account (fully accessible) whilst 97% (n = 171) had a private account (limited access); 36% (n = 63) of students mentioned the dental school/hospital on their profile; 34% (n = 60) had questionable content on their profile whilst 3% (n = 6) had definite violations of professionalism on their profile; and 25% (n = 44) had unprofessional photographs on their profile. Of those with unprofessional content, 52% (n = 23) of these had a documented affiliation with the dental school also visible on their profile. There was a concerning level of unprofessional content visible on students' Facebook profiles. Students need to be fully aware of their professional responsibility in the setting of social media. © 2016 The Authors. European Journal of Dental Education Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Ecosystem services as assessment endpoints for ecological risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Munns, Wayne R; Rea, Anne W; Suter, Glenn W; Martin, Lawrence; Blake-Hedges, Lynne; Crk, Tanja; Davis, Christine; Ferreira, Gina; Jordan, Steve; Mahoney, Michele; Barron, Mace G

2016-07-01

Ecosystem services are defined as the outputs of ecological processes that contribute to human welfare or have the potential to do so in the future. Those outputs include food and drinking water, clean air and water, and pollinated crops. The need to protect the services provided by natural systems has been recognized previously, but ecosystem services have not been formally incorporated into ecological risk assessment practice in a general way in the United States. Endpoints used conventionally in ecological risk assessment, derived directly from the state of the ecosystem (e.g., biophysical structure and processes), and endpoints based on ecosystem services serve different purposes. Conventional endpoints are ecologically important and susceptible entities and attributes that are protected under US laws and regulations. Ecosystem service endpoints are a conceptual and analytical step beyond conventional endpoints and are intended to complement conventional endpoints by linking and extending endpoints to goods and services with more obvious benefit to humans. Conventional endpoints can be related to ecosystem services even when the latter are not considered explicitly during problem formulation. To advance the use of ecosystem service endpoints in ecological risk assessment, the US Environmental Protection Agency's Risk Assessment Forum has added generic endpoints based on ecosystem services (ES-GEAE) to the original 2003 set of generic ecological assessment endpoints (GEAEs). Like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are defined by an entity and an attribute. Also like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are broadly described and will need to be made specific when applied to individual assessments. Adoption of ecosystem services as a type of assessment endpoint is intended to improve the value of risk assessment to environmental decision making, linking ecological risk to human well-being, and providing an improved means of communicating those risks. Integr Environ Assess Manag

Using toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic modeling as an acute risk assessment refinement approach in vertebrate ecological risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Ducrot, Virginie; Ashauer, Roman; Bednarska, Agnieszka J; Hinarejos, Silvia; Thorbek, Pernille; Weyman, Gabriel

2016-01-01

Recent guidance identified toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic (TK-TD) modeling as a relevant approach for risk assessment refinement. Yet, its added value compared to other refinement options is not detailed, and how to conduct the modeling appropriately is not explained. This case study addresses these issues through 2 examples of individual-level risk assessment for 2 hypothetical plant protection products: 1) evaluating the risk for small granivorous birds and small omnivorous mammals of a single application, as a seed treatment in winter cereals, and 2) evaluating the risk for fish after a pulsed treatment in the edge-of-field zone. Using acute test data, we conducted the first tier risk assessment as defined in the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) guidance. When first tier risk assessment highlighted a concern, refinement options were discussed. Cases where the use of models should be preferred over other existing refinement approaches were highlighted. We then practically conducted the risk assessment refinement by using 2 different models as examples. In example 1, a TK model accounting for toxicokinetics and relevant feeding patterns in the skylark and in the wood mouse was used to predict internal doses of the hypothetical active ingredient in individuals, based on relevant feeding patterns in an in-crop situation, and identify the residue levels leading to mortality. In example 2, a TK-TD model accounting for toxicokinetics, toxicodynamics, and relevant exposure patterns in the fathead minnow was used to predict the time-course of fish survival for relevant FOCUS SW exposure scenarios and identify which scenarios might lead to mortality. Models were calibrated using available standard data and implemented to simulate the time-course of internal dose of active ingredient or survival for different exposure scenarios. Simulation results were discussed and used to derive the risk assessment refinement endpoints used for decision. Finally, we compared the

Hanford Site baseline risk assessment methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-03-01

This methodology has been developed to prepare human health and environmental evaluations of risk as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act remedial investigations (RIs) and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act facility investigations (FIs) performed at the Hanford Site pursuant to the Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order referred to as the Tri-Party Agreement. Development of the methodology has been undertaken so that Hanford Site risk assessments are consistent with current regulations and guidance, while providing direction on flexible, ambiguous, or undefined aspects of the guidance. The methodology identifies Site-specific risk assessment considerations and integrates them with approaches for evaluating human and environmental risk that can be factored into the risk assessment program supporting the Hanford Site cleanup mission. Consequently, the methodology will enhance the preparation and review of individual risk assessments at the Hanford Site

Literacy Profiles of At-Risk Young Adults Enrolled in Career and Technical Education

Science.gov (United States)

Mellard, Daryl F.; Woods, Kari L.; Lee, Jae Hoon

2016-01-01

A latent profile analysis of 323 economically and academically at-risk adolescent and young adult learners yielded two classes: an average literacy class (92%) and a low literacy class (8%). The class profiles significantly differed in their word reading and math skills, and in their processing speeds and self-reported learning disabilities. The…

RELEVANCE OF PROCESS RISK ASSESSMENT IN AIRLINES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Oksana G. Feoktistova

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The notion of “the concept on assumed risk” that took over from the outdated concept of absolute security is analyzed, the increasing significance of operating risk assessment at the present stage is noted. Some basic risk assessment techniques are considered. Matrix technique of risk assessment is considered more thoroughly, and it may be used in risk assessment of airlines in the context of labour protection management system.The ability to correctly assess risks and develop appropriate precautionary measures will allow airlines to avoid incidents leading to drastic consequences for staff, as well as to direct and indirect costs for the enterprise among which there could be singled out both direct property damage and loss of profit and expenses connected to incident investigation, penalty and compensation payment, loss of business reputation and so on. To reduce the rate of accidents and to develop safe activities skills for airlines staff a risk assessment chart is supposed to be implemented, which will be an efficient accidents prevention involving the staff in the process and making them follow safe working conditions.Process risk assessment is an integral part of assessment of the whole enterprise activity and work efficiency of a department and particular workers evaluation system. Labour protection activity should be based on risk identification and its control. Risk assessment is a keystone of labour protection activity planning.

Perceptions of risk in adults with a low or high risk profile of developing type 2 diabetes; a cross sectional population-bases study.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Adriaanse, M.C.; Twisk, J.W.R.; Dekker, J.M.; Spijkerman, A.M.W.; Nijpels, G.; Heine, R.J.; Snoek, F.J.

2008-01-01

Objective: To compare the perceived seriousness and risk of type 2 diabetes among low risk with high risk profile non-diabetic subjects and examine the relationship of perceived risk with multiple self-reported risk indicators. Methods: A cross-sectional population-based study among 4435 low risk

Quantifying the benefits of achieving or maintaining long-term low risk profile for cardiovascular disease : The doetinchem cohort study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hulsegge, Gerben; Smit, Henriëtte A.; Van Der Schouw, Yvonne T.; Daviglus, Martha L.; Verschuren, W. M Monique

2015-01-01

Background: Studies investigating the relation between risk profiles and cardiovascular disease have measured risk at baseline only. We investigated maintenance and changes of risk profiles over time and their potential impact on incident cardiovascular disease. Design: Population-based cohort

Quantifying the benefits of achieving or maintaining long-term low risk profile for cardiovascular disease: The Doetinchem Cohort Study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hulsegge, G.; Smit, H.A.; van der Schouw, Y.T.; Daviglus, M.L.; Verschuren, W.M.

2015-01-01

Background: Studies investigating the relation between risk profiles and cardiovascular disease have measured risk at baseline only. We investigated maintenance and changes of risk profiles over time and their potential impact on incident cardiovascular disease. Design: Population-based cohort

Uncertainty quantification in flood risk assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Blöschl, Günter; Hall, Julia; Kiss, Andrea; Parajka, Juraj; Perdigão, Rui A. P.; Rogger, Magdalena; Salinas, José Luis; Viglione, Alberto

2017-04-01

Uncertainty is inherent to flood risk assessments because of the complexity of the human-water system, which is characterised by nonlinearities and interdependencies, because of limited knowledge about system properties and because of cognitive biases in human perception and decision-making. On top of the uncertainty associated with the assessment of the existing risk to extreme events, additional uncertainty arises because of temporal changes in the system due to climate change, modifications of the environment, population growth and the associated increase in assets. Novel risk assessment concepts are needed that take into account all these sources of uncertainty. They should be based on the understanding of how flood extremes are generated and how they change over time. They should also account for the dynamics of risk perception of decision makers and population in the floodplains. In this talk we discuss these novel risk assessment concepts through examples from Flood Frequency Hydrology, Socio-Hydrology and Predictions Under Change. We believe that uncertainty quantification in flood risk assessment should lead to a robust approach of integrated flood risk management aiming at enhancing resilience rather than searching for optimal defense strategies.

Mexican American Adolescents' Profiles of Risk and Mental Health: A Person-Centered Longitudinal Approach

Science.gov (United States)

Zeiders, Katharine H.; Roosa, Mark W.; Knight, George P.; Gonzales, Nancy A.

2013-01-01

Although Mexican American adolescents experience multiple risk factors in their daily lives, most research examines the influences of risk factors on adjustment independently, ignoring the additive and interactive effects of multiple risk factors. Guided by a person-centered perspective and utilizing latent profile analysis, this study identified…

Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

van der Knaap, Leontien M.; Leenarts, Laura E. W.; Born, Marise Ph.; Oosterveld, Paul

2012-01-01

Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the generalizability of their results. The present study…

Comparing risk profiles of individuals diagnosed with diabetes by OGTT and HbA1c

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Borg, R.; Vistisen, D.; Witte, D.R.

2010-01-01

Glycated haemoglobin (HbA(1c)) has been proposed as an alternative to the oral glucose tolerance test for diagnosing diabetes. We compared the cardiovascular risk profile of individuals identified by these two alternative methods.......Glycated haemoglobin (HbA(1c)) has been proposed as an alternative to the oral glucose tolerance test for diagnosing diabetes. We compared the cardiovascular risk profile of individuals identified by these two alternative methods....

Enhancing the ecological risk assessment process.

Science.gov (United States)

Dale, Virginia H; Biddinger, Gregory R; Newman, Michael C; Oris, James T; Suter, Glenn W; Thompson, Timothy; Armitage, Thomas M; Meyer, Judith L; Allen-King, Richelle M; Burton, G Allen; Chapman, Peter M; Conquest, Loveday L; Fernandez, Ivan J; Landis, Wayne G; Master, Lawrence L; Mitsch, William J; Mueller, Thomas C; Rabeni, Charles F; Rodewald, Amanda D; Sanders, James G; van Heerden, Ivor L

2008-07-01

The Ecological Processes and Effects Committee of the US Environmental Protection Agency Science Advisory Board conducted a self-initiated study and convened a public workshop to characterize the state of the ecological risk assessment (ERA), with a view toward advancing the science and application of the process. That survey and analysis of ERA in decision making shows that such assessments have been most effective when clear management goals were included in the problem formulation; translated into information needs; and developed in collaboration with decision makers, assessors, scientists, and stakeholders. This process is best facilitated when risk managers, risk assessors, and stakeholders are engaged in an ongoing dialogue about problem formulation. Identification and acknowledgment of uncertainties that have the potential to profoundly affect the results and outcome of risk assessments also improves assessment effectiveness. Thus we suggest 1) through peer review of ERAs be conducted at the problem formulation stage and 2) the predictive power of risk-based decision making be expanded to reduce uncertainties through analytical and methodological approaches like life cycle analysis. Risk assessment and monitoring programs need better integration to reduce uncertainty and to evaluate risk management decision outcomes. Postdecision audit programs should be initiated to evaluate the environmental outcomes of risk-based decisions. In addition, a process should be developed to demonstrate how monitoring data can be used to reduce uncertainties. Ecological risk assessments should include the effects of chemical and nonchemical stressors at multiple levels of biological organization and spatial scale, and the extent and resolution of the pertinent scales and levels of organization should be explicitly considered during problem formulation. An approach to interpreting lines of evidence and weight of evidence is critically needed for complex assessments, and it would

Sonographic biophysical profile in detection of foetal hypoxia in 100 cases of suspected high risk pregnancy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ullah, N.; Khan, A.R.; Usman, M.

2010-01-01

Background: The foetus has become increasingly accessible and visible as a patient over the last two decades. Ultrasound imaging has broadened the scope of foetal assessment. Dynamic real time B-Mode ultrasound is used to monitor cluster of biophysical variables, both dynamic and static collectively termed as biophysical profile. The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of sonographic biophysical profile score on perinatal outcome in terms of mortality and morbidity. Methods: This descriptive study was carried on 100 randomly select ed high risk pregnant patients in Radiology Department PGMI, Government Lady Reading Hospital, Peshawar from December 2007 to June 2008. Manning biophysical profile including non-stress was employed for foetal screening, using Toshiba ultrasound machine model Nemio SSA-550A and 7.5 MHZ probe. Results: Out of 100 cases 79 (79%) had a normal biophysical profile in the last scan of 10/10 and had a normal perinatal outcome with 5 minutes Apgar score >7/10. In 13 (13%) cases Apgar score at 5 minute was < 7/10 and babies were shifted to nursery. There were 2 (2%) false positive cases that showed abnormal biophysical profile scores of 6/10 but babies were born with an Apgar score of 8/10 at 5 minutes. There were 2 (2%) neonatal deaths in this study group. The sensitivity of biophysical profile was 79.1%, specificity 92.9%. Predictive value for a positive test was 98.55%; predictive value for a negative test was 41.93%. Conclusion: Biophysical profile is highly accurate and reliable test of diagnosing foetal hypoxia. (author)

Model of personalised risk assessment of phytoestrogen intake based on 11 SNP in ESR1 and ESR2 genes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Radoslav Zidek

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Phytoestrogens can induce biological responses in vertebrates by mimicking or modulating the action or production of endogenous hormones, and because of their structural similarity with estradiol they have the ability to cause estrogenic or anti-estrogenic effects. Risk assessment of phytoestrogens intake may therefore provide important information useful in the adjustment of nutrients composition, as one of nutrigenomics approaches. Proper risk assessment is an essential part of good nutrient composition. The current risk assessment procedures does use an additive effect of genes, but the accumulation of relevant factors do not count with the distribution of risk in the European population. A combination of approaches based on genetic score, along with the use of the data bases like 1000 genomes and dbSNP is a powerful tool for population risk modelling that would provide reasonable results without needs of as testing a representative number of individual genetic profiles.

A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mahmoudi, Hossein, E-mail: mahmoudi@uni-hohenheim.de [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, G.C. (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Renn, Ortwin [Department of Technology and Environmental Sociology (and DIALOGIK), University of Stuttgart (Germany); Vanclay, Frank [Department of Cultural Geography, Faculty of Spatial Sciences, University of Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Hoffmann, Volker [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Karami, Ezatollah [College of Agriculture, Shiraz University, Shiraz (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

2013-11-15

An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary.

A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

2013-01-01

An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary

Risk assessment [Chapter 9

Science.gov (United States)

Dennis S. Ojima; Louis R. Iverson; Brent L. Sohngen; James M. Vose; Christopher W. Woodall; Grant M. Domke; David L. Peterson; Jeremy S. Littell; Stephen N. Matthews; Anantha M. Prasad; Matthew P. Peters; Gary W. Yohe; Megan M. Friggens

2014-01-01

What is "risk" in the context of climate change? How can a "risk-based framework" help assess the effects of climate change and develop adaptation priorities? Risk can be described by the likelihood of an impact occurring and the magnitude of the consequences of the impact (Yohe 2010) (Fig. 9.1). High-magnitude impacts are always...

Ohio Financial Services and Risk Management. Technical Competency Profile (TCP).

Science.gov (United States)

Ray, Gayl M.; Wilson, Nick; Mangini, Rick

This document describes the essential competencies from secondary through post-secondary associate degree programs for a career in financial services and risk management. Ohio College Tech Prep Program standards are described, and a key to profile codes is provided. Sample occupations in this career area, such as financial accountant, loan…

Associations between Peer Harassment and School Risk and Protection Profiles

Science.gov (United States)

Gloppen, Kari M.; Gower, Amy L.; McMorris, Barbara J.; Eisenberg, Marla E.

2017-01-01

Background: Peer harassment can have serious implications for students' success and well-being, and prevention programs need to consider the school context. This study aimed to: (1) identify groups of similar schools based on their risk and protective factors and demographic characteristics and (2) examine associations between school profiles and…

Risk assessment - black art or science?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moore, G.

1988-01-01

Measures of risk can be divided into two categories, those that observe or calculate the risk of a process or project, and those that rely on the level of risk as perceived by the people during the assessment. Collection of data of accidents (where cause and effect are obvious) and experiments on animals which can then be extrapolated to humans, are two ways of risk assessment. Mathematical models and computerized simulations, using either fault tree analysis or Monte Carlo methods are explained simply. Using these methods, experts are able to perceive risk fairly realistically. However, the general public's perception of risk is often quite different, as potential risk is assessed in different ways. The concept of tolerable risk is considered, particularly with reference to nuclear reactors such as Sizewell-B. The need to inform the public of safeguards and safety procedures so they have a better understanding of the risks of nuclear power is stressed. (U.K.)

Cardiovascular risk profile and frailty in a population-based study of older British men.

Science.gov (United States)

Ramsay, S E; Arianayagam, D S; Whincup, P H; Lennon, L T; Cryer, J; Papacosta, A O; Iliffe, S; Wannamethee, S G

2015-04-01

Frailty in older age is known to be associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. However, the extent to which frailty is associated with the CVD risk profile has been little studied. Our aim was to examine the associations of a range of cardiovascular risk factors with frailty and to assess whether these are independent of established CVD. Cross-sectional study of a socially representative sample of 1622 surviving men aged 71-92 examined in 2010-2012 across 24 British towns, from a prospective study initiated in 1978-1980. Frailty was defined using the Fried phenotype, including weight loss, grip strength, exhaustion, slowness and low physical activity. Among 1622 men, 303 (19%) were frail and 876 (54%) were pre-frail. Compared with non-frail, those with frailty had a higher odds of obesity (OR 2.03, 95% CI 1.38 to 2.99), high waist circumference (OR 2.30, 95% CI 1.67 to 3.17), low high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (HDL-C) (OR 2.28, 95% CI 1.47 to 3.54) and hypertension (OR 1.79, 95% CI 1.27 to 2.54). Prevalence of these factors was also higher in those with frailty (prevalence in frail vs non-frail groups was 46% vs 31% for high waist circumference, 20% vs 11% for low HDL and 78% vs 65% for hypertension). Frail individuals had a worse cardiovascular risk profile with an increased risk of high heart rate, poor lung function (forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1)), raised white cell count (WCC), poor renal function (low estimated glomerular filtration rate), low alanine transaminase and low serum sodium. Some risk factors (HDL-C, hypertension, WCC, FEV1, renal function and albumin) were also associated with being pre-frail. These associations remained when men with prevalent CVD were excluded. Frailty was associated with increased risk of a range of cardiovascular factors (including obesity, HDL-C, hypertension, heart rate, lung function, renal function) in older people; these associations were independent of established CVD. Published by the BMJ

Cardiovascular and metabolic profiles amongst different polycystic ovary syndrome phenotypes: who is really at risk?

Science.gov (United States)

Daan, Nadine M P; Louwers, Yvonne V; Koster, Maria P H; Eijkemans, Marinus J C; de Rijke, Yolanda B; Lentjes, Eef W G; Fauser, Bart C J M; Laven, Joop S E

2014-11-01

To study the cardiometabolic profile characteristics and compare the prevalence of cardiovascular (CV) risk factors between women with different polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) phenotypes. A cross-sectional multicenter study analyzing 2,288 well phenotyped women with PCOS. Specialized reproductive outpatient clinic. Women of reproductive age (18-45 years) diagnosed with PCOS. Women suspected of oligo- or anovulation underwent a standardized screening consisting of a systematic medical and reproductive history taking, anthropometric measurements, and transvaginal ultrasonography followed by an extensive endocrinologic/metabolic evaluation. Differences in cardiometabolic profile characteristics and CV risk factor prevalence between women with different PCOS phenotypes, i.e., obesity/overweight, hypertension, insulin resistance, dyslipidemia, and metabolic syndrome. Women with hyperandrogenic PCOS (n=1,219; 53.3% of total) presented with a worse cardiometabolic profile and a higher prevalence of CV risk factors, such as obesity and overweight, insulin resistance, and metabolic syndrome, compared with women with nonhyperandrogenic PCOS. In women with nonhyperandrogenic PCOS overweight/obesity (28.5%) and dyslipidemia (low-density lipoprotein cholesterol≥3.0 mmol/L; 52.2%) were highly prevalent. Women with hyperandrogenic PCOS have a worse cardiometabolic profile and higher prevalence of CV risk factors compared with women with nonhyperandrogenic PCOS. However, all women with PCOS should be screened for the presence of CV risk factors, since the frequently found derangements at a young age imply an elevated risk for the development of CV disease later in life. Copyright © 2014 American Society for Reproductive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Concerning ethical risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boeckle, F.

1991-01-01

After a fundamental consideration of the concept of responsibility and 'long-term responsibility' for late sequelae, the problems of an ehtical assessment of risks were illustrated: The concept of risk itself poses three problems - predicting the probability of occurrence, assessing the damage = subjective classification of the degree of damage, determining whether the advantages outweigh the risks. It is not possible to weigh the advantages and risks against each other without assessing the goals and the priorities which have been set. Here ethics is called for, because it concerns itself with the reasonableness of evaluative decisions. Its task is to enable us to become aware of and comprehend our system of values in all of its complexity in reference to real life. Ethics can only fulfill its task if it helps us to adopt an integral perspective, i.e. if it centers on the human being. 'One must assess all technical and economic innovations in terms of whether they are beneficial to the development of mankind on a long-term basis. They are only to be legitimized insofar as they prove themselves to be a means of liberating mankind and contributing to his sense of dignity and identity, as a means of bringing human beings together and encouraging them to care for one another, and as a means of protecting the natural basis of our existence. (orig./HSCH) [de

Ecological risk assessment

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Suter, Glenn W; Barnthouse, L. W. (Lawrence W)

2007-01-01

Ecological risk assessment is commonly applied to the regulation of chemicals, the remediation of contaminated sites, the monitoring of importation of exotic organisms, the management of watersheds...

Characterizing and Measuring Maliciousness for Cybersecurity Risk Assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zoe M. King

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Cyber attacks have been increasingly detrimental to networks, systems, and users, and are increasing in number and severity globally. To better predict system vulnerabilities, cybersecurity researchers are developing new and more holistic approaches to characterizing cybersecurity system risk. The process must include characterizing the human factors that contribute to cyber security vulnerabilities and risk. Rationality, expertise, and maliciousness are key human characteristics influencing cyber risk within this context, yet maliciousness is poorly characterized in the literature. There is a clear absence of literature pertaining to human factor maliciousness as it relates to cybersecurity and only limited literature relating to aspects of maliciousness in other disciplinary literatures, such as psychology, sociology, and law. In an attempt to characterize human factors as a contribution to cybersecurity risk, the Cybersecurity Collaborative Research Alliance (CSec-CRA has developed a Human Factors risk framework. This framework identifies the characteristics of an attacker, user, or defender, all of whom may be adding to or mitigating against cyber risk. The maliciousness literature and the proposed maliciousness assessment metrics are discussed within the context of the Human Factors Framework and Ontology. Maliciousness is defined as the intent to harm. Most maliciousness cyber research to date has focused on detecting malicious software but fails to analyze an individual’s intent to do harm to others by deploying malware or performing malicious attacks. Recent efforts to identify malicious human behavior as it relates to cybersecurity, include analyzing motives driving insider threats as well as user profiling analyses. However, cyber-related maliciousness is neither well-studied nor is it well understood because individuals are not forced to expose their true selves to others while performing malicious attacks. Given the difficulty of

Characterizing and Measuring Maliciousness for Cybersecurity Risk Assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

King, Zoe M; Henshel, Diane S; Flora, Liberty; Cains, Mariana G; Hoffman, Blaine; Sample, Char

2018-01-01

Cyber attacks have been increasingly detrimental to networks, systems, and users, and are increasing in number and severity globally. To better predict system vulnerabilities, cybersecurity researchers are developing new and more holistic approaches to characterizing cybersecurity system risk. The process must include characterizing the human factors that contribute to cyber security vulnerabilities and risk. Rationality, expertise, and maliciousness are key human characteristics influencing cyber risk within this context, yet maliciousness is poorly characterized in the literature. There is a clear absence of literature pertaining to human factor maliciousness as it relates to cybersecurity and only limited literature relating to aspects of maliciousness in other disciplinary literatures, such as psychology, sociology, and law. In an attempt to characterize human factors as a contribution to cybersecurity risk, the Cybersecurity Collaborative Research Alliance (CSec-CRA) has developed a Human Factors risk framework. This framework identifies the characteristics of an attacker, user, or defender, all of whom may be adding to or mitigating against cyber risk. The maliciousness literature and the proposed maliciousness assessment metrics are discussed within the context of the Human Factors Framework and Ontology. Maliciousness is defined as the intent to harm. Most maliciousness cyber research to date has focused on detecting malicious software but fails to analyze an individual's intent to do harm to others by deploying malware or performing malicious attacks. Recent efforts to identify malicious human behavior as it relates to cybersecurity, include analyzing motives driving insider threats as well as user profiling analyses. However, cyber-related maliciousness is neither well-studied nor is it well understood because individuals are not forced to expose their true selves to others while performing malicious attacks. Given the difficulty of interviewing malicious

Characterizing and Measuring Maliciousness for Cybersecurity Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

King, Zoe M.; Henshel, Diane S.; Flora, Liberty; Cains, Mariana G.; Hoffman, Blaine; Sample, Char

2018-01-01

Cyber attacks have been increasingly detrimental to networks, systems, and users, and are increasing in number and severity globally. To better predict system vulnerabilities, cybersecurity researchers are developing new and more holistic approaches to characterizing cybersecurity system risk. The process must include characterizing the human factors that contribute to cyber security vulnerabilities and risk. Rationality, expertise, and maliciousness are key human characteristics influencing cyber risk within this context, yet maliciousness is poorly characterized in the literature. There is a clear absence of literature pertaining to human factor maliciousness as it relates to cybersecurity and only limited literature relating to aspects of maliciousness in other disciplinary literatures, such as psychology, sociology, and law. In an attempt to characterize human factors as a contribution to cybersecurity risk, the Cybersecurity Collaborative Research Alliance (CSec-CRA) has developed a Human Factors risk framework. This framework identifies the characteristics of an attacker, user, or defender, all of whom may be adding to or mitigating against cyber risk. The maliciousness literature and the proposed maliciousness assessment metrics are discussed within the context of the Human Factors Framework and Ontology. Maliciousness is defined as the intent to harm. Most maliciousness cyber research to date has focused on detecting malicious software but fails to analyze an individual’s intent to do harm to others by deploying malware or performing malicious attacks. Recent efforts to identify malicious human behavior as it relates to cybersecurity, include analyzing motives driving insider threats as well as user profiling analyses. However, cyber-related maliciousness is neither well-studied nor is it well understood because individuals are not forced to expose their true selves to others while performing malicious attacks. Given the difficulty of interviewing

Cardiovascular disease risk profile of NCAA Division III intercollegiate football athletes: a pilot study.

Science.gov (United States)

Wright, Cynthia J; Abbey, Elizabeth L; Brandon, Barbara A; Reisman, Edward J; Kirkpatrick, Christina M

2017-09-01

Concerns about the long-term cardiovascular health implications of American football participation have been investigated at the professional and Division I levels, but limited research is available at the less resourced Division III level. Therefore, the objective was to assess the cardiovascular disease risk profile of NCAA Division III intercollegiate football athletes. Eighty-nine varsity football athletes (age = 19.6 ± 1.7 years, height = 1.81 ± 0.07m, weight = 92.7 ± 16.2kg; n = 21 linemen, n = 68 non-linemen) at a private Division III university volunteered to participate. During a preseason pre-participation physical examination, all participants completed a health history screening form (to assess personal and family history of cardiac related pathologies), and were assessed for height, weight, body mass index (BMI), and blood pressure (BP). Linemen only additionally gave a blood sample for fasting blood glucose and cholesterol analysis, and were assessed for waist and hip circumference, metabolic syndrome, and percent body fat (%BF). These measures were reported as averages and frequencies of elevated cardiovascular. Independent t-tests compared linemen to non-linemen, all other data was presented descriptively. On average, linemen were significantly taller, heavier, had a higher BMI and higher systolic BP than non-linemen (all P < 0.05); there was no difference in diastolic BP between the groups (P = 0.331). The average anthropometric and cardiac risk characteristics for linemen were largely within normal ranges, however analyzed individually, a substantial number of participants were at elevated risk (BMI ≥30 = 85.7%, %BF ≥25 = 71.4%, waist circumference ≥1 = 42.9%, hypertension = 9.5%, high density lipoproteins <40mg/dL = 42.9%, and triglycerides ≥150mg/dL = 6.7%; metabolic syndrome prevalence = 19%). Similar to research in elite athletics, linemen at a single Division III university have elevated

Risk assessment of amorphous silicon dioxide nanoparticles in a glass cleaner formulation

Science.gov (United States)

Scheel, Julia; Karsten, Stefan; Stelter, Norbert; Wind, Thorsten

2013-01-01

Since nanomaterials are a heterogeneous group of substances used in various applications, risk assessment needs to be done on a case-by-case basis. Here the authors assess the risk (hazard and exposure) of a glass cleaner with synthetic amorphous silicon dioxide (SAS) nanoparticles during production and consumer use (spray application). As the colloidal material used is similar to previously investigated SAS, the hazard profile was considered to be comparable. Overall, SAS has a low toxicity. Worker exposure was analysed to be well controlled. The particle size distribution indicated that the aerosol droplets were in a size range not expected to reach the alveoli. Predictive modelling was used to approximate external exposure concentrations. Consumer and environmental exposure were estimated conservatively and were not of concern. It was concluded based on the available weight-of-evidence that the production and application of the glass cleaner is safe for humans and the environment under intended use conditions. PMID:22548260

Appreciating Complexity in Adolescent Self-Harm Risk Factors: Psychological Profiling in a Longitudinal Community Sample.

Science.gov (United States)

Stanford, Sarah; Jones, Michael P; Hudson, Jennifer L

2018-05-01

Past research identifies a number of risk factors for adolescent self-harm, but often fails to account for overlap between these factors. This study investigated the underlying, broader concepts by identifying different psychological profiles among adolescents. We then compared new self-harm rates over a six-month period across different psychological profiles. Australian high school students (n = 326, 68.1% female) completed a questionnaire including a broad range of psychological and socioenvironmental risk and protective factors. Non-hierarchical cluster analysis produced six groups with different psychological profiles at baseline and rate of new self-harm at follow-up. The lowest rate was 1.4% in a group that appeared psychologically healthy; the highest rate was 37.5% in a group that displayed numerous psychological difficulties. Four groups with average self-harm had varied psychological profiles including low impulsivity, anxiety, impulsivity, and poor use of positive coping strategies. Identifying multiple profiles with distinct psychological characteristics can improve detection, guide prevention, and tailor treatment.

A risk communication case study: the Nevada risk assessment/management program

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hechanova, A.E.

2001-01-01

The Nevada Risk Assessment/Management Program is part of a national effort by the U.S. Department of Energy (Grant DE-FG01-96EW56093) to develop new sources of information and approaches to risk assessment, risk management, risk communication and public outreach as these objectives relate to the ecological and human health effects of radioactive and hazardous material management and site remediation activities. This paper reviews the innovation behind the Nevada Risk Assessment/Management Program and presents a synopsis of the effort that began in 1995 and will officially conclude on April 30, 2000. (author)

Comparing caries risk profiles between 5- and 10- year-old children with cleft lip and/or palate and non-cleft controls

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sundell, Anna Lena; Ullbro, Christer; Marcusson, Agneta

2015-01-01

of cleft lip and/or palate (CL(P)) children with non-cleft controls in the same age using a computerized caries risk assessment model. METHODS: The study group consisted of 133 children with CL(P) (77 subjects aged 5 years and 56 aged 10 years) and 297 non-cleft controls (133 aged 5 years and 164 aged 10......BACKGROUND: Previous studies have suggested that children with oral clefts may have higher caries prevalence in comparison with non-cleft controls but the relative importance of the potential risk factors is not clear. The aim of this study was to compare the caries risk profiles in a group...

Caries risk assessment in children

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Twetman, S

2016-01-01

PURPOSE: To summarise the findings of recent systematic reviews (SR) covering caries risk assessment in children, updated with recent primary studies. METHODS: A search for relevant papers published 2012-2014 was conducted in electronic databases. The systematic reviews were quality assessed...... displayed a high risk of bias. CONCLUSIONS: Based on the present summary of literature, it may be concluded: (1) a caries risk assessment should be carried out at the child's first dental visit and reassessments should be done during childhood (D); (2) multivariate models display a better accuracy than...... the use of single predictors and this is especially true for preschool children (C); (3) there is no clearly superior method to predict future caries and no evidence to support the use of one model, program, or technology before the other (C); and (4) the risk category should be linked to appropriate...

The substance use risk profile scale: a scale measuring traits linked to reinforcement-specific substance use profiles.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Woicik, P.A.; Stewart, S.H.; Pihl, R.O.; Conrod, P.J.

2009-12-01

The Substance Use Risk Profile Scale (SURPS) is based on a model of personality risk for substance abuse in which four personality dimensions (hopelessness, anxiety sensitivity, impulsivity, and sensation seeking) are hypothesized to differentially relate to specific patterns of substance use. The current series of studies is a preliminary exploration of the psychometric properties of the SURPS in two populations (undergraduate and high school students). In study 1, an analysis of the internal structure of two versions of the SURPS shows that the abbreviated version best reflects the 4-factor structure. Concurrent, discriminant, and incremental validity of the SURPS is supported by convergent/divergent relationships between the SURPS subscales and other theoretically relevant personality and drug use criterion measures. In Study 2, the factorial structure of the SURPS is confirmed and evidence is provided for its test-retest reliability and validity with respect to measuring personality vulnerability to reinforcement-specific substance use patterns. In Study 3, the SURPS was administered in a more youthful population to test its sensitivity in identifying younger problematic drinkers. The results from the current series of studies demonstrate support for the reliability and construct validity of the SURPS, and suggest that four personality dimensions may be linked to substance-related behavior through different reinforcement processes. This brief assessment tool may have important implications for clinicians and future research.

[Regional atmospheric environment risk source identification and assessment].

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Xiao-Chun; Chen, Wei-Ping; Ma, Chun; Zhan, Shui-Fen; Jiao, Wen-Tao

2012-12-01

Identification and assessment for atmospheric environment risk source plays an important role in regional atmospheric risk assessment and regional atmospheric pollution prevention and control. The likelihood exposure and consequence assessment method (LEC method) and the Delphi method were employed to build a fast and effective method for identification and assessment of regional atmospheric environment risk sources. This method was applied to the case study of a large coal transportation port in North China. The assessment results showed that the risk characteristics and the harm degree of regional atmospheric environment risk source were in line with the actual situation. Fast and effective identification and assessment of risk source has laid an important foundation for the regional atmospheric environmental risk assessment and regional atmospheric pollution prevention and control.

Metabolic Syndrome Risk Profiles Among African American Adolescents

Science.gov (United States)

Fitzpatrick, Stephanie L.; Lai, Betty S.; Brancati, Frederick L.; Golden, Sherita H.; Hill-Briggs, Felicia

2013-01-01

OBJECTIVE Although African American adolescents have the highest prevalence of obesity, they have the lowest prevalence of metabolic syndrome across all definitions used in previous research. To address this paradox, we sought to develop a model of the metabolic syndrome specific to African American adolescents. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS Data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2003–2010) of 822 nonpregnant, nondiabetic, African American adolescents (45% girls; aged 12 to 17 years) who underwent physical examinations and fasted at least 8 h were analyzed. We conducted a confirmatory factor analysis to model metabolic syndrome and then used latent profile analysis to identify metabolic syndrome risk groups among African American adolescents. We compared the risk groups on probability of prediabetes. RESULTS The best-fitting metabolic syndrome model consisted of waist circumference, fasting insulin, HDL, and systolic blood pressure. We identified three metabolic syndrome risk groups: low, moderate, and high risk (19% boys; 16% girls). Thirty-five percent of both boys and girls in the high-risk groups had prediabetes, a significantly higher prevalence compared with boys and girls in the low-risk groups. Among adolescents with BMI higher than the 85th percentile, 48 and 36% of boys and girls, respectively, were in the high-risk group. CONCLUSIONS Our findings provide a plausible model of the metabolic syndrome specific to African American adolescents. Based on this model, approximately 19 and 16% of African American boys and girls, respectively, are at high risk for having the metabolic syndrome. PMID:23093663

OPPT workplan risk assessment for Trichloroethylene ...

Science.gov (United States)

The assessment will focus on uses of TCE as a degreaser and in consumer products used by individuals in the arts/crafts field. Given the range of endpoints (cancer, non-cancer; the latter includes potential effects on the developing fetus), it is expected that susceptible populations would be children (as bystanders physically near the actual consumer use of the products) and adults of all ages (including pregnant women). Thus, the assessment will focus on all human/lifestages. EPA anticipates issuing draft risk assessments for public review and comment as they are completed. At the conclusion of the review process, if an assessment of specific uses indicates significant risk, EPA will evaluate and pursue appropriate risk reduction actions, as warranted. If an assessment indicates no significant risk, EPA will conclude its current work on assessment of those specified targeted uses of that chemical. Over time, additional chemicals will be added to the work plan as more data are developed and more chemicals screened.

Occupational risk of building construction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aneziris, O.N.; Topali, E.; Papazoglou, I.A.

2012-01-01

This paper presents the quantification of occupational risk of a building construction project. Risk assessment is based on the Occupational Risk Model (ORCA) developed under the Workgroup Occupational Risk Model project (WORM), in the Netherlands, for quantifying occupational risk. This model assesses occupational risk of a worker, by taking into account his various tasks, activities and their hazards. Risk is evaluated for three types of consequences: recoverable injury, permanent injury and death. The occupational risk model is based on a set of 63 bowties, which assess risk owing to different hazards such as fall from ladder, scaffold, roofs, falling object, struck by moving vehicle, contact by moving parts, etc. ORCA calculates the risk profile of a building construction site, consisting of thirty-eight workers in different job positions, such as operators of excavators, loaders, compaction equipment, workers in excavation and framing phases, etc. All risk profiles of workers have been quantified and jobs have been ranked according to their risk. Workers installing timber formworks have the highest fatality risk (1.57×10 −3 /yr), followed by the workers installing reinforcement (1.52×10 −3 /yr).

Tools for Microbiological risk assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bassett, john; Nauta, Maarten; Lindqvist, Roland

can increase the understanding of microbiological risks in foods. It is timely to inform food safety professionals about the availability and utility of MRA tools. Therefore, the focus of this report is to aid the food safety manager by providing a concise summary of the tools available for the MRA......Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) has emerged as a comprehensive and systematic approach for addressing the risk of pathogens in specific foods and/or processes. At government level, MRA is increasingly recognised as a structured and objective approach to understand the level of risk in a given...... food/pathogen scenario. Tools developed so far support qualitative and quantitative assessments of the risk that a food pathogen poses to a particular population. Risk can be expressed as absolute numbers or as relative (ranked) risks. The food industry is beginning to appreciate that the tools for MRA...

Modeling for operational event risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sattison, M.B.

1997-01-01

The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission has been using risk models to evaluate the risk significance of operational events in U.S. commercial nuclear power plants for more seventeen years. During that time, the models have evolved in response to the advances in risk assessment technology and insights gained with experience. Evaluation techniques fall into two categories, initiating event assessments and condition assessments. The models used for these analyses have become uniquely specialized for just this purpose

Risk assessment of forensic patients: nurses' role.

Science.gov (United States)

Encinares, Maxima; McMaster, Jeff James; McNamee, Jim

2005-03-01

One of the unique roles of forensic nurses is to conduct risk assessments. Establishing a therapeutic nurse-patient relationship helps forensic nurses perform accurate and useful risk assessments. Accurate risk assessments can facilitate formulation of individualized risk management plans, designed to meet patients' needs and ensure public safety. The importance of forensic nurses' knowledge and application of appropriate communication and proper documentation cannot be overemphasized.

Lung cancer risk in relation to traffic-related nano/ultrafine particle-bound PAHs exposure: a preliminary probabilistic assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Liao, Chung-Min; Chio, Chia-Pin; Chen, Wei-Yu; Ju, Yun-Ru; Li, Wen-Hsuan; Cheng, Yi-Hsien; Liao, Vivian Hsiu-Chuan; Chen, Szu-Chieh; Ling, Min-Pei

2011-06-15

Exposures to carcinogenic polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) have been linked to human lung cancer. The purpose of this study was to assess lung cancer risk caused by inhalation exposure to nano/ultrafine particle-bound PAHs at the population level in Taiwan appraised with recent published data. A human respiratory tract model was linked with a physiologically based pharmacokinetic model to estimate deposition fraction and internal organic-specific PAHs doses. A probabilistic risk assessment framework was developed to estimate potential lung cancer risk. We reanalyzed particle size distribution, total-PAHs, particle-bound benzo(a)pyrene (B[a]P) and PM concentrations. A dose-response profile describing the relationships between external B[a]P concentration and lung cancer risk response was constructed based on population attributable fraction (PAF). We found that 90% probability lung cancer risks ranged from 10(-5) to 10(-4) for traffic-related nano and ultrafine particle-bound PAHs, indicating a potential lung cancer risk. The particle size-specific PAF-based excess annual lung cancer incidence rate due to PAHs exposure was estimated to be less than 1 per 100,000 population, indicating a mild risk factor for lung cancer. We concluded that probabilistic risk assessment linked PAF for limiting cumulative PAHs emissions to reduce lung cancer risk plays a prominent role in future government risk assessment program. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ethical dimensions in assessing technical risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Birnbacher, D.

1991-01-01

Contrary to the present tendency of partially impact-independent technology assessment, the author does not see a difference between a risk-benefit analysis and an ethical technology assessment. As long as the risk-benefit analysis is truly comprehensive, both fall together. This does not mean that convictions of those who have their doubts about some new technologies, independently of impact assessments, may be disregarded in purely consequential risk evaluations. On the contrary, qualms of representatives of these principles, just as any other stable non-acceptance, have to be included as aggravating negative elements in technology assessments. (orig./HSCH) [de

Total cardiovascular disease risk assessment: a review.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Cooney, Marie Therese

2011-09-01

The high risk strategy for the prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) requires an assessment of an individual\\'s total CVD risk so that the most intensive risk factor management can be directed towards those at highest risk. Here we review developments in the assessment and estimation of total CVD risk.