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Sample records for risk prediction algorithm

  1. Enhanced clinical pharmacy service targeting tools: risk-predictive algorithms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    El Hajji, Feras W D; Scullin, Claire; Scott, Michael G; McElnay, James C

    2015-04-01

    This study aimed to determine the value of using a mix of clinical pharmacy data and routine hospital admission spell data in the development of predictive algorithms. Exploration of risk factors in hospitalized patients, together with the targeting strategies devised, will enable the prioritization of clinical pharmacy services to optimize patient outcomes. Predictive algorithms were developed using a number of detailed steps using a 75% sample of integrated medicines management (IMM) patients, and validated using the remaining 25%. IMM patients receive targeted clinical pharmacy input throughout their hospital stay. The algorithms were applied to the validation sample, and predicted risk probability was generated for each patient from the coefficients. Risk threshold for the algorithms were determined by identifying the cut-off points of risk scores at which the algorithm would have the highest discriminative performance. Clinical pharmacy staffing levels were obtained from the pharmacy department staffing database. Numbers of previous emergency admissions and admission medicines together with age-adjusted co-morbidity and diuretic receipt formed a 12-month post-discharge and/or readmission risk algorithm. Age-adjusted co-morbidity proved to be the best index to predict mortality. Increased numbers of clinical pharmacy staff at ward level was correlated with a reduction in risk-adjusted mortality index (RAMI). Algorithms created were valid in predicting risk of in-hospital and post-discharge mortality and risk of hospital readmission 3, 6 and 12 months post-discharge. The provision of ward-based clinical pharmacy services is a key component to reducing RAMI and enabling the full benefits of pharmacy input to patient care to be realized. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  2. Predicting disease risk using bootstrap ranking and classification algorithms.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ohad Manor

    Full Text Available Genome-wide association studies (GWAS are widely used to search for genetic loci that underlie human disease. Another goal is to predict disease risk for different individuals given their genetic sequence. Such predictions could either be used as a "black box" in order to promote changes in life-style and screening for early diagnosis, or as a model that can be studied to better understand the mechanism of the disease. Current methods for risk prediction typically rank single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs by the p-value of their association with the disease, and use the top-associated SNPs as input to a classification algorithm. However, the predictive power of such methods is relatively poor. To improve the predictive power, we devised BootRank, which uses bootstrapping in order to obtain a robust prioritization of SNPs for use in predictive models. We show that BootRank improves the ability to predict disease risk of unseen individuals in the Wellcome Trust Case Control Consortium (WTCCC data and results in a more robust set of SNPs and a larger number of enriched pathways being associated with the different diseases. Finally, we show that combining BootRank with seven different classification algorithms improves performance compared to previous studies that used the WTCCC data. Notably, diseases for which BootRank results in the largest improvements were recently shown to have more heritability than previously thought, likely due to contributions from variants with low minimum allele frequency (MAF, suggesting that BootRank can be beneficial in cases where SNPs affecting the disease are poorly tagged or have low MAF. Overall, our results show that improving disease risk prediction from genotypic information may be a tangible goal, with potential implications for personalized disease screening and treatment.

  3. A utility/cost analysis of breast cancer risk prediction algorithms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abbey, Craig K.; Wu, Yirong; Burnside, Elizabeth S.; Wunderlich, Adam; Samuelson, Frank W.; Boone, John M.

    2016-03-01

    Breast cancer risk prediction algorithms are used to identify subpopulations that are at increased risk for developing breast cancer. They can be based on many different sources of data such as demographics, relatives with cancer, gene expression, and various phenotypic features such as breast density. Women who are identified as high risk may undergo a more extensive (and expensive) screening process that includes MRI or ultrasound imaging in addition to the standard full-field digital mammography (FFDM) exam. Given that there are many ways that risk prediction may be accomplished, it is of interest to evaluate them in terms of expected cost, which includes the costs of diagnostic outcomes. In this work we perform an expected-cost analysis of risk prediction algorithms that is based on a published model that includes the costs associated with diagnostic outcomes (true-positive, false-positive, etc.). We assume the existence of a standard screening method and an enhanced screening method with higher scan cost, higher sensitivity, and lower specificity. We then assess expected cost of using a risk prediction algorithm to determine who gets the enhanced screening method under the strong assumption that risk and diagnostic performance are independent. We find that if risk prediction leads to a high enough positive predictive value, it will be cost-effective regardless of the size of the subpopulation. Furthermore, in terms of the hit-rate and false-alarm rate of the of the risk prediction algorithm, iso-cost contours are lines with slope determined by properties of the available diagnostic systems for screening.

  4. Predicting Sepsis Risk Using the "Sniffer" Algorithm in the Electronic Medical Record.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olenick, Evelyn M; Zimbro, Kathie S; DʼLima, Gabrielle M; Ver Schneider, Patricia; Jones, Danielle

    The Sepsis "Sniffer" Algorithm (SSA) has merit as a digital sepsis alert but should be considered an adjunct to versus an alternative for the Nurse Screening Tool (NST), given lower specificity and positive predictive value. The SSA reduced the risk of incorrectly categorizing patients at low risk for sepsis, detected sepsis high risk in half the time, and reduced redundant NST screens by 70% and manual screening hours by 64% to 72%. Preserving nurse hours expended on manual sepsis alerts may translate into time directed toward other patient priorities.

  5. DEVELOPMENT OF THE SOCIAL TENSION RISK PREDICTING ALGORITHM IN THE POPULATION OF CERTAIN REGIONS OF RUSSIA

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    A. B. Mulik

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Aim. The aim of the study was development of approaches to predict the risk of social tension for population of the Russian Federation regions.Methods. Theoretical studies based on the analysis of cartographic material from the National Atlas of Russia. The use of geo-information technologies has provided modeling of environmental load in the territory of certain regions of Russia. Experimental studies were performed using standard methods of psycho-physiological testing involving 336 persons 18-23 years old of both sexes.Results. As a fundamental biologically significant factor of the environment, differentiating the Russian Federation territory to areas with discrete actual physical effects, total solar radiation was determined. The subsequent allocation of model regions (Republic of Crimea, Rostov and Saratov regions based on the principle of minimizing regional differences associated factors of environmental pressure per person. Experimental studies have revealed persistent systemic relationships of phenotypic characteristics and tendency of person to neuropsychic tension. The risk of social tension for the study area population is predicted on the condition of finding more than two thirds of the representatives of sample within the borders of a high level of general non-specific reactivity of an organism.Main conclusions. The expediency of using the northern latitude as an integral index of differentiation of areas on the specifics of the severity of the physical factors of environmental impact on human activity is justified. The possibility of the application for the level of general nonspecific reactivity of an organism as a phenotypic trait marker of social tension risk is identified. An algorithm for predicting the risk of social tension among the population, compactly living in certain territories of the Russian Federation is designed. 

  6. Predicting the onset of hazardous alcohol drinking in primary care: development and validation of a simple risk algorithm.

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    Bellón, Juan Ángel; de Dios Luna, Juan; King, Michael; Nazareth, Irwin; Motrico, Emma; GildeGómez-Barragán, María Josefa; Torres-González, Francisco; Montón-Franco, Carmen; Sánchez-Celaya, Marta; Díaz-Barreiros, Miguel Ángel; Vicens, Catalina; Moreno-Peral, Patricia

    2017-04-01

    Little is known about the risk of progressing to hazardous alcohol use in abstinent or low-risk drinkers. To develop and validate a simple brief risk algorithm for the onset of hazardous alcohol drinking (HAD) over 12 months for use in primary care. Prospective cohort study in 32 health centres from six Spanish provinces, with evaluations at baseline, 6 months, and 12 months. Forty-one risk factors were measured and multilevel logistic regression and inverse probability weighting were used to build the risk algorithm. The outcome was new occurrence of HAD during the study, as measured by the AUDIT. From the lists of 174 GPs, 3954 adult abstinent or low-risk drinkers were recruited. The 'predictAL-10' risk algorithm included just nine variables (10 questions): province, sex, age, cigarette consumption, perception of financial strain, having ever received treatment for an alcohol problem, childhood sexual abuse, AUDIT-C, and interaction AUDIT-C*Age. The c-index was 0.886 (95% CI = 0.854 to 0.918). The optimal cutoff had a sensitivity of 0.83 and specificity of 0.80. Excluding childhood sexual abuse from the model (the 'predictAL-9'), the c-index was 0.880 (95% CI = 0.847 to 0.913), sensitivity 0.79, and specificity 0.81. There was no statistically significant difference between the c-indexes of predictAL-10 and predictAL-9. The predictAL-10/9 is a simple and internally valid risk algorithm to predict the onset of hazardous alcohol drinking over 12 months in primary care attendees; it is a brief tool that is potentially useful for primary prevention of hazardous alcohol drinking. © British Journal of General Practice 2017.

  7. Observational study to calculate addictive risk to opioids: a validation study of a predictive algorithm to evaluate opioid use disorder

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brenton A

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Ashley Brenton,1 Steven Richeimer,2,3 Maneesh Sharma,4 Chee Lee,1 Svetlana Kantorovich,1 John Blanchard,1 Brian Meshkin1 1Proove Biosciences, Irvine, CA, 2Keck school of Medicine, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, 3Departments of Anesthesiology and Psychiatry, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, 4Interventional Pain Institute, Baltimore, MD, USA Background: Opioid abuse in chronic pain patients is a major public health issue, with rapidly increasing addiction rates and deaths from unintentional overdose more than quadrupling since 1999. Purpose: This study seeks to determine the predictability of aberrant behavior to opioids using a comprehensive scoring algorithm incorporating phenotypic risk factors and neuroscience-associated single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs. Patients and methods: The Proove Opioid Risk (POR algorithm determines the predictability of aberrant behavior to opioids using a comprehensive scoring algorithm incorporating phenotypic risk factors and neuroscience-associated SNPs. In a validation study with 258 subjects with diagnosed opioid use disorder (OUD and 650 controls who reported using opioids, the POR successfully categorized patients at high and moderate risks of opioid misuse or abuse with 95.7% sensitivity. Regardless of changes in the prevalence of opioid misuse or abuse, the sensitivity of POR remained >95%. Conclusion: The POR correctly stratifies patients into low-, moderate-, and high-risk categories to appropriately identify patients at need for additional guidance, monitoring, or treatment changes. Keywords: opioid use disorder, addiction, personalized medicine, pharmacogenetics, genetic testing, predictive algorithm

  8. Dementia Population Risk Tool (DemPoRT): study protocol for a predictive algorithm assessing dementia risk in the community.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisher, Stacey; Hsu, Amy; Mojaverian, Nassim; Taljaard, Monica; Huyer, Gregory; Manuel, Douglas G; Tanuseputro, Peter

    2017-10-24

    The burden of disease from dementia is a growing global concern as incidence increases dramatically with age, and average life expectancy has been increasing around the world. Planning for an ageing population requires reliable projections of dementia prevalence; however, existing population projections are simple and have poor predictive accuracy. The Dementia Population Risk Tool (DemPoRT) will predict incidence of dementia in the population setting using multivariable modelling techniques and will be used to project dementia prevalence. The derivation cohort will consist of elderly Ontario respondents of the Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS) (2001, 2003, 2005 and 2007; 18 764 males and 25 288 females). Prespecified predictors include sociodemographic, general health, behavioural, functional and health condition variables. Incident dementia will be identified through individual linkage of survey respondents to population-level administrative healthcare databases (1797 and 3281 events, and 117 795 and 166 573 person-years of follow-up, for males and females, respectively, until 31 March 2014). Using time of first dementia capture as the primary outcome and death as a competing risk, sex-specific proportional hazards regression models will be estimated. The 2008/2009 CCHS survey will be used for validation (approximately 4600 males and 6300 females). Overall calibration and discrimination will be assessed as well as calibration within predefined subgroups of importance to clinicians and policy makers. Research ethics approval has been granted by the Ottawa Health Science Network Research Ethics Board. DemPoRT results will be submitted for publication in peer-review journals and presented at scientific meetings. The algorithm will be assessable online for both population and individual uses. ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03155815, pre-results. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No

  9. Prediction of breast cancer risk using a machine learning approach embedded with a locality preserving projection algorithm

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    Heidari, Morteza; Zargari Khuzani, Abolfazl; Hollingsworth, Alan B.; Danala, Gopichandh; Mirniaharikandehei, Seyedehnafiseh; Qiu, Yuchen; Liu, Hong; Zheng, Bin

    2018-02-01

    In order to automatically identify a set of effective mammographic image features and build an optimal breast cancer risk stratification model, this study aims to investigate advantages of applying a machine learning approach embedded with a locally preserving projection (LPP) based feature combination and regeneration algorithm to predict short-term breast cancer risk. A dataset involving negative mammograms acquired from 500 women was assembled. This dataset was divided into two age-matched classes of 250 high risk cases in which cancer was detected in the next subsequent mammography screening and 250 low risk cases, which remained negative. First, a computer-aided image processing scheme was applied to segment fibro-glandular tissue depicted on mammograms and initially compute 44 features related to the bilateral asymmetry of mammographic tissue density distribution between left and right breasts. Next, a multi-feature fusion based machine learning classifier was built to predict the risk of cancer detection in the next mammography screening. A leave-one-case-out (LOCO) cross-validation method was applied to train and test the machine learning classifier embedded with a LLP algorithm, which generated a new operational vector with 4 features using a maximal variance approach in each LOCO process. Results showed a 9.7% increase in risk prediction accuracy when using this LPP-embedded machine learning approach. An increased trend of adjusted odds ratios was also detected in which odds ratios increased from 1.0 to 11.2. This study demonstrated that applying the LPP algorithm effectively reduced feature dimensionality, and yielded higher and potentially more robust performance in predicting short-term breast cancer risk.

  10. Development and validation of a risk prediction algorithm for the recurrence of suicidal ideation among general population with low mood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Y; Sareen, J; Bolton, J M; Wang, J L

    2016-03-15

    Suicidal ideation is one of the strongest predictors of recent and future suicide attempt. This study aimed to develop and validate a risk prediction algorithm for the recurrence of suicidal ideation among population with low mood 3035 participants from U.S National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions with suicidal ideation at their lowest mood at baseline were included. The Alcohol Use Disorder and Associated Disabilities Interview Schedule, based on the DSM-IV criteria was used. Logistic regression modeling was conducted to derive the algorithm. Discrimination and calibration were assessed in the development and validation cohorts. In the development data, the proportion of recurrent suicidal ideation over 3 years was 19.5 (95% CI: 17.7, 21.5). The developed algorithm consisted of 6 predictors: age, feelings of emptiness, sudden mood changes, self-harm history, depressed mood in the past 4 weeks, interference with social activities in the past 4 weeks because of physical health or emotional problems and emptiness was the most important risk factor. The model had good discriminative power (C statistic=0.8273, 95% CI: 0.8027, 0.8520). The C statistic was 0.8091 (95% CI: 0.7786, 0.8395) in the external validation dataset and was 0.8193 (95% CI: 0.8001, 0.8385) in the combined dataset. This study does not apply to people with suicidal ideation who are not depressed. The developed risk algorithm for predicting the recurrence of suicidal ideation has good discrimination and excellent calibration. Clinicians can use this algorithm to stratify the risk of recurrence in patients and thus improve personalized treatment approaches, make advice and further intensive monitoring. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Dementia Population Risk Tool (DemPoRT): study protocol for a predictive algorithm assessing dementia risk in the community

    OpenAIRE

    Fisher, Stacey; Hsu, Amy; Mojaverian, Nassim; Taljaard, Monica; Huyer, Gregory; Manuel, Douglas G; Tanuseputro, Peter

    2017-01-01

    Introduction The burden of disease from dementia is a growing global concern as incidence increases dramatically with age, and average life expectancy has been increasing around the world. Planning for an ageing population requires reliable projections of dementia prevalence; however, existing population projections are simple and have poor predictive accuracy. The Dementia Population Risk Tool (DemPoRT) will predict incidence of dementia in the population setting using multivariable modellin...

  12. Applying a machine learning model using a locally preserving projection based feature regeneration algorithm to predict breast cancer risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heidari, Morteza; Zargari Khuzani, Abolfazl; Danala, Gopichandh; Mirniaharikandehei, Seyedehnafiseh; Qian, Wei; Zheng, Bin

    2018-03-01

    Both conventional and deep machine learning has been used to develop decision-support tools applied in medical imaging informatics. In order to take advantages of both conventional and deep learning approach, this study aims to investigate feasibility of applying a locally preserving projection (LPP) based feature regeneration algorithm to build a new machine learning classifier model to predict short-term breast cancer risk. First, a computer-aided image processing scheme was used to segment and quantify breast fibro-glandular tissue volume. Next, initially computed 44 image features related to the bilateral mammographic tissue density asymmetry were extracted. Then, an LLP-based feature combination method was applied to regenerate a new operational feature vector using a maximal variance approach. Last, a k-nearest neighborhood (KNN) algorithm based machine learning classifier using the LPP-generated new feature vectors was developed to predict breast cancer risk. A testing dataset involving negative mammograms acquired from 500 women was used. Among them, 250 were positive and 250 remained negative in the next subsequent mammography screening. Applying to this dataset, LLP-generated feature vector reduced the number of features from 44 to 4. Using a leave-onecase-out validation method, area under ROC curve produced by the KNN classifier significantly increased from 0.62 to 0.68 (p breast cancer detected in the next subsequent mammography screening.

  13. Cardiovascular Disease Population Risk Tool (CVDPoRT): predictive algorithm for assessing CVD risk in the community setting. A study protocol.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taljaard, Monica; Tuna, Meltem; Bennett, Carol; Perez, Richard; Rosella, Laura; Tu, Jack V; Sanmartin, Claudia; Hennessy, Deirdre; Tanuseputro, Peter; Lebenbaum, Michael; Manuel, Douglas G

    2014-10-23

    Recent publications have called for substantial improvements in the design, conduct, analysis and reporting of prediction models. Publication of study protocols, with prespecification of key aspects of the analysis plan, can help to improve transparency, increase quality and protect against increased type I error. Valid population-based risk algorithms are essential for population health planning and policy decision-making. The purpose of this study is to develop, evaluate and apply cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk algorithms for the population setting. The Ontario sample of the Canadian Community Health Survey (2001, 2003, 2005; 77,251 respondents) will be used to assess risk factors focusing on health behaviours (physical activity, diet, smoking and alcohol use). Incident CVD outcomes will be assessed through linkage to administrative healthcare databases (619,886 person-years of follow-up until 31 December 2011). Sociodemographic factors (age, sex, immigrant status, education) and mediating factors such as presence of diabetes and hypertension will be included as predictors. Algorithms will be developed using competing risks survival analysis. The analysis plan adheres to published recommendations for the development of valid prediction models to limit the risk of overfitting and improve the quality of predictions. Key considerations are fully prespecifying the predictor variables; appropriate handling of missing data; use of flexible functions for continuous predictors; and avoiding data-driven variable selection procedures. The 2007 and 2009 surveys (approximately 50,000 respondents) will be used for validation. Calibration will be assessed overall and in predefined subgroups of importance to clinicians and policymakers. This study has been approved by the Ottawa Health Science Network Research Ethics Board. The findings will be disseminated through professional and scientific conferences, and in peer-reviewed journals. The algorithm will be accessible

  14. A prospective, longitudinal study to evaluate the clinical utility of a predictive algorithm that detects risk of opioid use disorder

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    Brenton, Ashley; Lee, Chee; Lewis, Katrina; Sharma, Maneesh; Kantorovich, Svetlana; Smith, Gregory A; Meshkin, Brian

    2018-01-01

    Purpose The purpose of this study was to determine the clinical utility of an algorithm-based decision tool designed to assess risk associated with opioid use. Specifically, we sought to assess how physicians were using the profile in patient care and how its use affected patient outcomes. Patients and methods A prospective, longitudinal study was conducted to assess the utility of precision medicine testing in 5,397 patients across 100 clinics in the USA. Using a patent-protected, validated algorithm combining specific genetic risk factors with phenotypic traits, patients were categorized into low-, moderate-, and high-risk patients for opioid abuse. Physicians who ordered precision medicine testing were asked to complete patient evaluations and document their actions, decisions, and perceptions regarding the utility of the precision medicine tests. The patient outcomes associated with each treatment action were carefully documented. Results Physicians used the profile to guide treatment decisions for over half of the patients. Of those, guided treatment decisions for 24.5% of the patients were opioid related, including changing the opioid prescribed, starting an opioid, or titrating a patient off the opioid. Treatment guidance was strongly influenced by profile-predicted opioid use disorder (OUD) risk. Most importantly, patients whose physicians used the profile to guide opioid-related treatment decisions had improved clinical outcomes, including better pain management by medication adjustments, with an average pain decrease of 3.4 points on a scale of 1–10. Conclusion Patients whose physicians used the profile to guide opioid-related treatment decisions had improved clinical outcomes, as measured by decreased pain levels resulting from better pain management with prescribed medications. The clinical utility of the profile is twofold. It provides clinically actionable recommendations that can be used to 1) prevent OUD through limiting initial opioid

  15. Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a cardiovascular risk prediction algorithm for people with severe mental illness (PRIMROSE).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zomer, Ella; Osborn, David; Nazareth, Irwin; Blackburn, Ruth; Burton, Alexandra; Hardoon, Sarah; Holt, Richard Ian Gregory; King, Michael; Marston, Louise; Morris, Stephen; Omar, Rumana; Petersen, Irene; Walters, Kate; Hunter, Rachael Maree

    2017-09-05

    To determine the cost-effectiveness of two bespoke severe mental illness (SMI)-specific risk algorithms compared with standard risk algorithms for primary cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention in those with SMI. Primary care setting in the UK. The analysis was from the National Health Service perspective. 1000 individuals with SMI from The Health Improvement Network Database, aged 30-74 years and without existing CVD, populated the model. Four cardiovascular risk algorithms were assessed: (1) general population lipid, (2) general population body mass index (BMI), (3) SMI-specific lipid and (4) SMI-specific BMI, compared against no algorithm. At baseline, each cardiovascular risk algorithm was applied and those considered high risk ( > 10%) were assumed to be prescribed statin therapy while others received usual care. Quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and costs were accrued for each algorithm including no algorithm, and cost-effectiveness was calculated using the net monetary benefit (NMB) approach. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to test assumptions made and uncertainty around parameter estimates. The SMI-specific BMI algorithm had the highest NMB resulting in 15 additional QALYs and a cost saving of approximately £53 000 per 1000 patients with SMI over 10 years, followed by the general population lipid algorithm (13 additional QALYs and a cost saving of £46 000). The general population lipid and SMI-specific BMI algorithms performed equally well. The ease and acceptability of use of an SMI-specific BMI algorithm (blood tests not required) makes it an attractive algorithm to implement in clinical settings. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  16. Prediction of seismic collapse risk of steel moment frame mid-rise structures by meta-heuristic algorithms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jough, Fooad Karimi Ghaleh; Şensoy, Serhan

    2016-12-01

    Different performance levels may be obtained for sideway collapse evaluation of steel moment frames depending on the evaluation procedure used to handle uncertainties. In this article, the process of representing modelling uncertainties, record to record (RTR) variations and cognitive uncertainties for moment resisting steel frames of various heights is discussed in detail. RTR uncertainty is used by incremental dynamic analysis (IDA), modelling uncertainties are considered through backbone curves and hysteresis loops of component, and cognitive uncertainty is presented in three levels of material quality. IDA is used to evaluate RTR uncertainty based on strong ground motion records selected by the k-means algorithm, which is favoured over Monte Carlo selection due to its time saving appeal. Analytical equations of the Response Surface Method are obtained through IDA results by the Cuckoo algorithm, which predicts the mean and standard deviation of the collapse fragility curve. The Takagi-Sugeno-Kang model is used to represent material quality based on the response surface coefficients. Finally, collapse fragility curves with the various sources of uncertainties mentioned are derived through a large number of material quality values and meta variables inferred by the Takagi-Sugeno-Kang fuzzy model based on response surface method coefficients. It is concluded that a better risk management strategy in countries where material quality control is weak, is to account for cognitive uncertainties in fragility curves and the mean annual frequency.

  17. Optimized outcome prediction in breast cancer by combining the 70-gene signature with clinical risk prediction algorithms

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Drukker, C.A.; Nijenhuis, M.V.; Bueno de Mesquita, J.M.; Retel, V.P.; Retel, Valesca; van Harten, Willem H.; van Tinteren, H.; Wesseling, J.; Schmidt, M.K.; van 't Veer, L.J.; Sonke, G.S.; Rutgers, E.J.T.; van de Vijver, M.J.; Linn, S.C.

    2014-01-01

    Clinical guidelines for breast cancer treatment differ in their selection of patients at a high risk of recurrence who are eligible to receive adjuvant systemic treatment (AST). The 70-gene signature is a molecular tool to better guide AST decisions. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether

  18. Potential of a Pharmacogenetic-Guided Algorithm to Predict Optimal Warfarin Dosing in a High-Risk Hispanic Patient

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dagmar F. Hernandez-Suarez MD

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Deep abdominal vein thrombosis is extremely rare among thrombotic events secondary to the use of contraceptives. A case to illustrate the clinical utility of ethno-specific pharmacogenetic testing in warfarin management of a Hispanic patient is reported. A 37-year-old Hispanic Puerto Rican, non-gravid female with past medical history of abnormal uterine bleeding on hormonal contraceptive therapy was evaluated for abdominal pain. Physical exam was remarkable for unspecific diffuse abdominal tenderness, and general initial laboratory results—including coagulation parameters—were unremarkable. A contrast-enhanced computed tomography showed a massive thrombosis of the main portal, splenic, and superior mesenteric veins. On admission the patient was started on oral anticoagulation therapy with warfarin at 5 mg/day and low-molecular-weight heparin. The prediction of an effective warfarin dose of 7.5 mg/day, estimated by using a recently developed pharmacogenetic-guided algorithm for Caribbean Hispanics, coincided with the actual patient’s warfarin dose to reach the international normalized ratio target. We speculate that the slow rise in patient’s international normalized ratio observed on the initiation of warfarin therapy, the resulting high risk for thromboembolic events, and the required warfarin dose of 7.5 mg/day are attributable in some part to the presence of the NQO1 *2 (g.559C>T, p.P187S polymorphism, which seems to be significantly associated with resistance to warfarin in Hispanics. By adding genotyping results of this novel variant, the predictive model can inform clinicians better about the optimal warfarin dose in Caribbean Hispanics. The results highlight the potential for pharmacogenetic testing of warfarin to improve patient care.

  19. Algorithms for Protein Structure Prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Paluszewski, Martin

    -trace. Here we present three different approaches for reconstruction of C-traces from predictable measures. In our first approach [63, 62], the C-trace is positioned on a lattice and a tabu-search algorithm is applied to find minimum energy structures. The energy function is based on half-sphere-exposure (HSE......) is more robust than standard Monte Carlo search. In the second approach for reconstruction of C-traces, an exact branch and bound algorithm has been developed [67, 65]. The model is discrete and makes use of secondary structure predictions, HSE, CN and radius of gyration. We show how to compute good lower...... bounds for partial structures very fast. Using these lower bounds, we are able to find global minimum structures in a huge conformational space in reasonable time. We show that many of these global minimum structures are of good quality compared to the native structure. Our branch and bound algorithm...

  20. Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and coronary disease: COPDCoRi, a simple and effective algorithm for predicting the risk of coronary artery disease in COPD patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cazzola, Mario; Calzetta, Luigino; Matera, Maria Gabriella; Muscoli, Saverio; Rogliani, Paola; Romeo, Francesco

    2015-08-01

    Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is often associated with cardiovascular artery disease (CAD), representing a potential and independent risk factor for cardiovascular morbidity. Therefore, the aim of this study was to identify an algorithm for predicting the risk of CAD in COPD patients. We analyzed data of patients afferent to the Cardiology ward and the Respiratory Diseases outpatient clinic of Tor Vergata University (2010-2012, 1596 records). The study population was clustered as training population (COPD patients undergoing coronary arteriography), control population (non-COPD patients undergoing coronary arteriography), test population (COPD patients whose records reported information on the coronary status). The predicting model was built via causal relationship between variables, stepwise binary logistic regression and Hosmer-Lemeshow analysis. The algorithm was validated via split-sample validation method and receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve analysis. The diagnostic accuracy was assessed. In training population the variables gender (men/women OR: 1.7, 95%CI: 1.237-2.5, P COPD patients, whereas in control population also age and diabetes were correlated. The stepwise binary logistic regressions permitted to build a well fitting predictive model for training population but not for control population. The predictive algorithm shown a diagnostic accuracy of 81.5% (95%CI: 77.78-84.71) and an AUC of 0.81 (95%CI: 0.78-0.85) for the validation set. The proposed algorithm is effective for predicting the risk of CAD in COPD patients via a rapid, inexpensive and non-invasive approach. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Genomic risk prediction of aromatase inhibitor-related arthralgia in patients with breast cancer using a novel machine-learning algorithm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reinbolt, Raquel E; Sonis, Stephen; Timmers, Cynthia D; Fernández-Martínez, Juan Luis; Cernea, Ana; de Andrés-Galiana, Enrique J; Hashemi, Sepehr; Miller, Karin; Pilarski, Robert; Lustberg, Maryam B

    2018-01-01

    Many breast cancer (BC) patients treated with aromatase inhibitors (AIs) develop aromatase inhibitor-related arthralgia (AIA). Candidate gene studies to identify AIA risk are limited in scope. We evaluated the potential of a novel analytic algorithm (NAA) to predict AIA using germline single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) data obtained before treatment initiation. Systematic chart review of 700 AI-treated patients with stage I-III BC identified asymptomatic patients (n = 39) and those with clinically significant AIA resulting in AI termination or therapy switch (n = 123). Germline DNA was obtained and SNP genotyping performed using the Affymetrix UK BioBank Axiom Array to yield 695,277 SNPs. SNP clusters that most closely defined AIA risk were discovered using an NAA that sequentially combined statistical filtering and a machine-learning algorithm. NCBI PhenGenI and Ensemble databases defined gene attribution of the most discriminating SNPs. Phenotype, pathway, and ontologic analyses assessed functional and mechanistic validity. Demographics were similar in cases and controls. A cluster of 70 SNPs, correlating to 57 genes, was identified. This SNP group predicted AIA occurrence with a maximum accuracy of 75.93%. Strong associations with arthralgia, breast cancer, and estrogen phenotypes were seen in 19/57 genes (33%) and were functionally consistent. Using a NAA, we identified a 70 SNP cluster that predicted AIA risk with fair accuracy. Phenotype, functional, and pathway analysis of attributed genes was consistent with clinical phenotypes. This study is the first to link a specific SNP/gene cluster to AIA risk independent of candidate gene bias. © 2017 The Authors. Cancer Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  2. A 2-stage ovarian cancer screening strategy using the Risk of Ovarian Cancer Algorithm (ROCA) identifies early-stage incident cancers and demonstrates high positive predictive value.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Karen H; Skates, Steven; Hernandez, Mary A; Bedi, Deepak; Bevers, Therese; Leeds, Leroy; Moore, Richard; Granai, Cornelius; Harris, Steven; Newland, William; Adeyinka, Olasunkanmi; Geffen, Jeremy; Deavers, Michael T; Sun, Charlotte C; Horick, Nora; Fritsche, Herbert; Bast, Robert C

    2013-10-01

    A 2-stage ovarian cancer screening strategy was evaluated that incorporates change of carbohydrate antigen 125 (CA125) levels over time and age to estimate risk of ovarian cancer. Women with high-risk scores were referred for transvaginal ultrasound (TVS). A single-arm, prospective study of postmenopausal women was conducted. Participants underwent an annual CA125 blood test. Based on the Risk of Ovarian Cancer Algorithm (ROCA) result, women were triaged to next annual CA125 test (low risk), repeat CA125 test in 3 months (intermediate risk), or TVS and referral to a gynecologic oncologist (high risk). A total of 4051 women participated over 11 years. The average annual rate of referral to a CA125 test in 3 months was 5.8%, and the average annual referral rate to TVS and review by a gynecologic oncologist was 0.9%. Ten women underwent surgery on the basis of TVS, with 4 invasive ovarian cancers (1 with stage IA disease, 2 with stage IC disease, and 1 with stage IIB disease), 2 ovarian tumors of low malignant potential (both stage IA), 1 endometrial cancer (stage I), and 3 benign ovarian tumors, providing a positive predictive value of 40% (95% confidence interval = 12.2%, 73.8%) for detecting invasive ovarian cancer. The specificity was 99.9% (95% confidence interval = 99.7%, 100%). All 4 women with invasive ovarian cancer were enrolled in the study for at least 3 years with low-risk annual CA125 test values prior to rising CA125 levels. ROCA followed by TVS demonstrated excellent specificity and positive predictive value in a population of US women at average risk for ovarian cancer. Copyright © 2013 American Cancer Society.

  3. Predictive models to assess risk of type 2 diabetes, hypertension and comorbidity: machine-learning algorithms and validation using national health data from Kuwait--a cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farran, Bassam; Channanath, Arshad Mohamed; Behbehani, Kazem; Thanaraj, Thangavel Alphonse

    2013-05-14

    We build classification models and risk assessment tools for diabetes, hypertension and comorbidity using machine-learning algorithms on data from Kuwait. We model the increased proneness in diabetic patients to develop hypertension and vice versa. We ascertain the importance of ethnicity (and natives vs expatriate migrants) and of using regional data in risk assessment. Retrospective cohort study. Four machine-learning techniques were used: logistic regression, k-nearest neighbours (k-NN), multifactor dimensionality reduction and support vector machines. The study uses fivefold cross validation to obtain generalisation accuracies and errors. Kuwait Health Network (KHN) that integrates data from primary health centres and hospitals in Kuwait. 270 172 hospital visitors (of which, 89 858 are diabetic, 58 745 hypertensive and 30 522 comorbid) comprising Kuwaiti natives, Asian and Arab expatriates. Incident type 2 diabetes, hypertension and comorbidity. Classification accuracies of >85% (for diabetes) and >90% (for hypertension) are achieved using only simple non-laboratory-based parameters. Risk assessment tools based on k-NN classification models are able to assign 'high' risk to 75% of diabetic patients and to 94% of hypertensive patients. Only 5% of diabetic patients are seen assigned 'low' risk. Asian-specific models and assessments perform even better. Pathological conditions of diabetes in the general population or in hypertensive population and those of hypertension are modelled. Two-stage aggregate classification models and risk assessment tools, built combining both the component models on diabetes (or on hypertension), perform better than individual models. Data on diabetes, hypertension and comorbidity from the cosmopolitan State of Kuwait are available for the first time. This enabled us to apply four different case-control models to assess risks. These tools aid in the preliminary non-intrusive assessment of the population. Ethnicity is seen significant

  4. Cardiovascular risk prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Graversen, Peter; Abildstrøm, Steen Z.; Jespersen, Lasse

    2016-01-01

    Aim European society of cardiology (ESC) guidelines recommend that cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk stratification in asymptomatic individuals is based on the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) algorithm, which estimates individual 10-year risk of death from CVD. We assessed the potential...

  5. Algorithm for predicting death among older adults in the home care setting: study protocol for the Risk Evaluation for Support: Predictions for Elder-life in the Community Tool (RESPECT).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsu, Amy T; Manuel, Douglas G; Taljaard, Monica; Chalifoux, Mathieu; Bennett, Carol; Costa, Andrew P; Bronskill, Susan; Kobewka, Daniel; Tanuseputro, Peter

    2016-12-01

    Older adults living in the community often have multiple, chronic conditions and functional impairments. A challenge for healthcare providers working in the community is the lack of a predictive tool that can be applied to the broad spectrum of mortality risks observed and may be used to inform care planning. To predict survival time for older adults in the home care setting. The final mortality risk algorithm will be implemented as a web-based calculator that can be used by older adults needing care and by their caregivers. Open cohort study using the Resident Assessment Instrument for Home Care (RAI-HC) data in Ontario, Canada, from 1 January 2007 to 31 December 2013. The derivation cohort will consist of ∼437 000 older adults who had an RAI-HC assessment between 1 January 2007 and 31 December 2012. A split sample validation cohort will include ∼122 000 older adults with an RAI-HC assessment between 1 January and 31 December 2013. Predicted survival from the time of an RAI-HC assessment. All deaths (n≈245 000) will be ascertained through linkage to a population-based registry that is maintained by the Ministry of Health in Ontario. Proportional hazards regression will be estimated after assessment of assumptions. Predictors will include sociodemographic factors, social support, health conditions, functional status, cognition, symptoms of decline and prior healthcare use. Model performance will be evaluated for 6-month and 12-month predicted risks, including measures of calibration (eg, calibration plots) and discrimination (eg, c-statistics). The final algorithm will use combined development and validation data. Research ethics approval has been granted by the Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre Review Board. Findings will be disseminated through presentations at conferences and in peer-reviewed journals. NCT02779309, Pre-results. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to

  6. Does risk for ovarian malignancy algorithm excel human epididymis protein 4 and ca125 in predicting epithelial ovarian cancer: A meta-analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Fake; Tie, Ruxiu; Chang, Kai; Wang, Feng; Deng, Shaoli; Lu, Weiping; Yu, Lili; Chen, Ming

    2012-01-01

    Risk for Ovarian Malignancy Algorithm (ROMA) and Human epididymis protein 4 (HE4) appear to be promising predictors for epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC), however, conflicting results exist in the diagnostic performance comparison among ROMA, HE4 and CA125. Remote databases (MEDLINE/PUBMED, EMBASE, Web of Science, Google Scholar, the Cochrane Library and ClinicalTrials.gov) and full texts bibliography were searched for relevant abstracts. All studies included were closely assessed with the QUADAS-2 (Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies-2). EOC predictive value of ROMA was systematically evaluated, and comparison among the predictive performances of ROMA, HE4 and CA125 were conducted within the same population. Sensitivity, specificity, DOR (diagnostic odds ratio), LR ± (positive and negative likelihood ratio) and AUC (area under receiver operating characteristic-curve) were summarized with a bivariate model. Subgroup analysis and sensitivity analysis were used to explore the heterogeneity. Data of 7792 tests were retrieved from 11 studies. The overall estimates of ROMA for EOC predicting were: sensitivity (0.89, 95% CI 0.84-0.93), specificity (0.83, 95% CI 0.77-0.88), and AUC (0.93, 95% CI 0.90-0.95). Comparison of EOC predictive value between HE4 and CA125 found, specificity: HE4 (0.93, 95% CI 0.87-0.96) > CA125 (0.84, 95% CI 0.76-0.90); AUC: CA125 (0.88, 95% CI 0.85-0.91) > HE4 (0.82, 95% CI 0.78-0.85). Comparison of OC predictive value between HE4 and CA125 found, AUC: CA125 (0.89, 95% CI 0.85-0.91) > HE4 (0.79, 95% CI 0.76-0.83). Comparison among the three tests for EOC prediction found, sensitivity: ROMA (0.86, 95%CI 0.81-0.91) > HE4 (0.80, 95% CI 0.73-0.85); specificity: HE4 (0.94, 95% CI 0.90-0.96) > ROMA (0.84, 95% CI 0.79-0.88) > CA125 (0.78, 95%CI 0.73-0.83). ROMA is helpful for distinguishing epithelial ovarian cancer from benign pelvic mass. HE4 is not better than CA125 either for EOC or OC prediction. ROMA is promising predictors of

  7. Machine learning algorithms for datasets popularity prediction

    CERN Document Server

    Kancys, Kipras

    2016-01-01

    This report represents continued study where ML algorithms were used to predict databases popularity. Three topics were covered. First of all, there was a discrepancy between old and new meta-data collection procedures, so a reason for that had to be found. Secondly, different parameters were analysed and dropped to make algorithms perform better. And third, it was decided to move modelling part on Spark.

  8. Developing predictive models for return to work using the Military Power, Performance and Prevention (MP3) musculoskeletal injury risk algorithm: a study protocol for an injury risk assessment programme.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhon, Daniel I; Teyhen, Deydre S; Shaffer, Scott W; Goffar, Stephen L; Kiesel, Kyle; Plisky, Phil P

    2018-02-01

    Musculoskeletal injuries are a primary source of disability in the US Military, and low back pain and lower extremity injuries account for over 44% of limited work days annually. History of prior musculoskeletal injury increases the risk for future injury. This study aims to determine the risk of injury after returning to work from a previous injury. The objective is to identify criteria that can help predict likelihood for future injury or re-injury. There will be 480 active duty soldiers recruited from across four medical centres. These will be patients who have sustained a musculoskeletal injury in the lower extremity or lumbar/thoracic spine, and have now been cleared to return back to work without any limitations. Subjects will undergo a battery of physical performance tests and fill out sociodemographic surveys. They will be followed for a year to identify any musculoskeletal injuries that occur. Prediction algorithms will be derived using regression analysis from performance and sociodemographic variables found to be significantly different between injured and non-injured subjects. Due to the high rates of injuries, injury prevention and prediction initiatives are growing. This is the first study looking at predicting re-injury rates after an initial musculoskeletal injury. In addition, multivariate prediction models appear to have move value than models based on only one variable. This approach aims to validate a multivariate model used in healthy non-injured individuals to help improve variables that best predict the ability to return to work with lower risk of injury, after a recent musculoskeletal injury. NCT02776930. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  9. An algorithm to discover gene signatures with predictive potential

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hallett Robin M

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The advent of global gene expression profiling has generated unprecedented insight into our molecular understanding of cancer, including breast cancer. For example, human breast cancer patients display significant diversity in terms of their survival, recurrence, metastasis as well as response to treatment. These patient outcomes can be predicted by the transcriptional programs of their individual breast tumors. Predictive gene signatures allow us to correctly classify human breast tumors into various risk groups as well as to more accurately target therapy to ensure more durable cancer treatment. Results Here we present a novel algorithm to generate gene signatures with predictive potential. The method first classifies the expression intensity for each gene as determined by global gene expression profiling as low, average or high. The matrix containing the classified data for each gene is then used to score the expression of each gene based its individual ability to predict the patient characteristic of interest. Finally, all examined genes are ranked based on their predictive ability and the most highly ranked genes are included in the master gene signature, which is then ready for use as a predictor. This method was used to accurately predict the survival outcomes in a cohort of human breast cancer patients. Conclusions We confirmed the capacity of our algorithm to generate gene signatures with bona fide predictive ability. The simplicity of our algorithm will enable biological researchers to quickly generate valuable gene signatures without specialized software or extensive bioinformatics training.

  10. Development of a Thermal Equilibrium Prediction Algorithm

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aviles-Ramos, Cuauhtemoc

    2002-01-01

    A thermal equilibrium prediction algorithm is developed and tested using a heat conduction model and data sets from calorimetric measurements. The physical model used in this study is the exact solution of a system of two partial differential equations that govern the heat conduction in the calorimeter. A multi-parameter estimation technique is developed and implemented to estimate the effective volumetric heat generation and thermal diffusivity in the calorimeter measurement chamber, and the effective thermal diffusivity of the heat flux sensor. These effective properties and the exact solution are used to predict the heat flux sensor voltage readings at thermal equilibrium. Thermal equilibrium predictions are carried out considering only 20% of the total measurement time required for thermal equilibrium. A comparison of the predicted and experimental thermal equilibrium voltages shows that the average percentage error from 330 data sets is only 0.1%. The data sets used in this study come from calorimeters of different sizes that use different kinds of heat flux sensors. Furthermore, different nuclear material matrices were assayed in the process of generating these data sets. This study shows that the integration of this algorithm into the calorimeter data acquisition software will result in an 80% reduction of measurement time. This reduction results in a significant cutback in operational costs for the calorimetric assay of nuclear materials. (authors)

  11. Predicting mining activity with parallel genetic algorithms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Talaie, S.; Leigh, R.; Louis, S.J.; Raines, G.L.; Beyer, H.G.; O'Reilly, U.M.; Banzhaf, Arnold D.; Blum, W.; Bonabeau, C.; Cantu-Paz, E.W.; ,; ,

    2005-01-01

    We explore several different techniques in our quest to improve the overall model performance of a genetic algorithm calibrated probabilistic cellular automata. We use the Kappa statistic to measure correlation between ground truth data and data predicted by the model. Within the genetic algorithm, we introduce a new evaluation function sensitive to spatial correctness and we explore the idea of evolving different rule parameters for different subregions of the land. We reduce the time required to run a simulation from 6 hours to 10 minutes by parallelizing the code and employing a 10-node cluster. Our empirical results suggest that using the spatially sensitive evaluation function does indeed improve the performance of the model and our preliminary results also show that evolving different rule parameters for different regions tends to improve overall model performance. Copyright 2005 ACM.

  12. Efficient predictive algorithms for image compression

    CERN Document Server

    Rosário Lucas, Luís Filipe; Maciel de Faria, Sérgio Manuel; Morais Rodrigues, Nuno Miguel; Liberal Pagliari, Carla

    2017-01-01

    This book discusses efficient prediction techniques for the current state-of-the-art High Efficiency Video Coding (HEVC) standard, focusing on the compression of a wide range of video signals, such as 3D video, Light Fields and natural images. The authors begin with a review of the state-of-the-art predictive coding methods and compression technologies for both 2D and 3D multimedia contents, which provides a good starting point for new researchers in the field of image and video compression. New prediction techniques that go beyond the standardized compression technologies are then presented and discussed. In the context of 3D video, the authors describe a new predictive algorithm for the compression of depth maps, which combines intra-directional prediction, with flexible block partitioning and linear residue fitting. New approaches are described for the compression of Light Field and still images, which enforce sparsity constraints on linear models. The Locally Linear Embedding-based prediction method is in...

  13. The Algorithm of Link Prediction on Social Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liyan Dong

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available At present, most link prediction algorithms are based on the similarity between two entities. Social network topology information is one of the main sources to design the similarity function between entities. But the existing link prediction algorithms do not apply the network topology information sufficiently. For lack of traditional link prediction algorithms, we propose two improved algorithms: CNGF algorithm based on local information and KatzGF algorithm based on global information network. For the defect of the stationary of social network, we also provide the link prediction algorithm based on nodes multiple attributes information. Finally, we verified these algorithms on DBLP data set, and the experimental results show that the performance of the improved algorithm is superior to that of the traditional link prediction algorithm.

  14. Nonlinear model predictive control theory and algorithms

    CERN Document Server

    Grüne, Lars

    2017-01-01

    This book offers readers a thorough and rigorous introduction to nonlinear model predictive control (NMPC) for discrete-time and sampled-data systems. NMPC schemes with and without stabilizing terminal constraints are detailed, and intuitive examples illustrate the performance of different NMPC variants. NMPC is interpreted as an approximation of infinite-horizon optimal control so that important properties like closed-loop stability, inverse optimality and suboptimality can be derived in a uniform manner. These results are complemented by discussions of feasibility and robustness. An introduction to nonlinear optimal control algorithms yields essential insights into how the nonlinear optimization routine—the core of any nonlinear model predictive controller—works. Accompanying software in MATLAB® and C++ (downloadable from extras.springer.com/), together with an explanatory appendix in the book itself, enables readers to perform computer experiments exploring the possibilities and limitations of NMPC. T...

  15. Predicting Smoking Status Using Machine Learning Algorithms and Statistical Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charles Frank

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Smoking has been proven to negatively affect health in a multitude of ways. As of 2009, smoking has been considered the leading cause of preventable morbidity and mortality in the United States, continuing to plague the country’s overall health. This study aims to investigate the viability and effectiveness of some machine learning algorithms for predicting the smoking status of patients based on their blood tests and vital readings results. The analysis of this study is divided into two parts: In part 1, we use One-way ANOVA analysis with SAS tool to show the statistically significant difference in blood test readings between smokers and non-smokers. The results show that the difference in INR, which measures the effectiveness of anticoagulants, was significant in favor of non-smokers which further confirms the health risks associated with smoking. In part 2, we use five machine learning algorithms: Naïve Bayes, MLP, Logistic regression classifier, J48 and Decision Table to predict the smoking status of patients. To compare the effectiveness of these algorithms we use: Precision, Recall, F-measure and Accuracy measures. The results show that the Logistic algorithm outperformed the four other algorithms with Precision, Recall, F-Measure, and Accuracy of 83%, 83.4%, 83.2%, 83.44%, respectively.

  16. Fuzzy audit risk modeling algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zohreh Hajihaa

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Fuzzy logic has created suitable mathematics for making decisions in uncertain environments including professional judgments. One of the situations is to assess auditee risks. During recent years, risk based audit (RBA has been regarded as one of the main tools to fight against fraud. The main issue in RBA is to determine the overall audit risk an auditor accepts, which impact the efficiency of an audit. The primary objective of this research is to redesign the audit risk model (ARM proposed by auditing standards. The proposed model of this paper uses fuzzy inference systems (FIS based on the judgments of audit experts. The implementation of proposed fuzzy technique uses triangular fuzzy numbers to express the inputs and Mamdani method along with center of gravity are incorporated for defuzzification. The proposed model uses three FISs for audit, inherent and control risks, and there are five levels of linguistic variables for outputs. FISs include 25, 25 and 81 rules of if-then respectively and officials of Iranian audit experts confirm all the rules.

  17. Lipoprotein metabolism indicators improve cardiovascular risk prediction.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniël B van Schalkwijk

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease risk increases when lipoprotein metabolism is dysfunctional. We have developed a computational model able to derive indicators of lipoprotein production, lipolysis, and uptake processes from a single lipoprotein profile measurement. This is the first study to investigate whether lipoprotein metabolism indicators can improve cardiovascular risk prediction and therapy management. METHODS AND RESULTS: We calculated lipoprotein metabolism indicators for 1981 subjects (145 cases, 1836 controls from the Framingham Heart Study offspring cohort in which NMR lipoprotein profiles were measured. We applied a statistical learning algorithm using a support vector machine to select conventional risk factors and lipoprotein metabolism indicators that contributed to predicting risk for general cardiovascular disease. Risk prediction was quantified by the change in the Area-Under-the-ROC-Curve (ΔAUC and by risk reclassification (Net Reclassification Improvement (NRI and Integrated Discrimination Improvement (IDI. Two VLDL lipoprotein metabolism indicators (VLDLE and VLDLH improved cardiovascular risk prediction. We added these indicators to a multivariate model with the best performing conventional risk markers. Our method significantly improved both CVD prediction and risk reclassification. CONCLUSIONS: Two calculated VLDL metabolism indicators significantly improved cardiovascular risk prediction. These indicators may help to reduce prescription of unnecessary cholesterol-lowering medication, reducing costs and possible side-effects. For clinical application, further validation is required.

  18. Algorithms for the Computation of Debris Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matney, Mark J.

    2017-01-01

    Determining the risks from space debris involve a number of statistical calculations. These calculations inevitably involve assumptions about geometry - including the physical geometry of orbits and the geometry of satellites. A number of tools have been developed in NASA’s Orbital Debris Program Office to handle these calculations; many of which have never been published before. These include algorithms that are used in NASA’s Orbital Debris Engineering Model ORDEM 3.0, as well as other tools useful for computing orbital collision rates and ground casualty risks. This paper presents an introduction to these algorithms and the assumptions upon which they are based.

  19. Algorithms for the Computation of Debris Risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matney, Mark

    2017-01-01

    Determining the risks from space debris involve a number of statistical calculations. These calculations inevitably involve assumptions about geometry - including the physical geometry of orbits and the geometry of non-spherical satellites. A number of tools have been developed in NASA's Orbital Debris Program Office to handle these calculations; many of which have never been published before. These include algorithms that are used in NASA's Orbital Debris Engineering Model ORDEM 3.0, as well as other tools useful for computing orbital collision rates and ground casualty risks. This paper will present an introduction to these algorithms and the assumptions upon which they are based.

  20. Breast cancer risks and risk prediction models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engel, Christoph; Fischer, Christine

    2015-02-01

    BRCA1/2 mutation carriers have a considerably increased risk to develop breast and ovarian cancer. The personalized clinical management of carriers and other at-risk individuals depends on precise knowledge of the cancer risks. In this report, we give an overview of the present literature on empirical cancer risks, and we describe risk prediction models that are currently used for individual risk assessment in clinical practice. Cancer risks show large variability between studies. Breast cancer risks are at 40-87% for BRCA1 mutation carriers and 18-88% for BRCA2 mutation carriers. For ovarian cancer, the risk estimates are in the range of 22-65% for BRCA1 and 10-35% for BRCA2. The contralateral breast cancer risk is high (10-year risk after first cancer 27% for BRCA1 and 19% for BRCA2). Risk prediction models have been proposed to provide more individualized risk prediction, using additional knowledge on family history, mode of inheritance of major genes, and other genetic and non-genetic risk factors. User-friendly software tools have been developed that serve as basis for decision-making in family counseling units. In conclusion, further assessment of cancer risks and model validation is needed, ideally based on prospective cohort studies. To obtain such data, clinical management of carriers and other at-risk individuals should always be accompanied by standardized scientific documentation.

  1. Predictive Power Estimation Algorithm (PPEA--a new algorithm to reduce overfitting for genomic biomarker discovery.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiangang Liu

    Full Text Available Toxicogenomics promises to aid in predicting adverse effects, understanding the mechanisms of drug action or toxicity, and uncovering unexpected or secondary pharmacology. However, modeling adverse effects using high dimensional and high noise genomic data is prone to over-fitting. Models constructed from such data sets often consist of a large number of genes with no obvious functional relevance to the biological effect the model intends to predict that can make it challenging to interpret the modeling results. To address these issues, we developed a novel algorithm, Predictive Power Estimation Algorithm (PPEA, which estimates the predictive power of each individual transcript through an iterative two-way bootstrapping procedure. By repeatedly enforcing that the sample number is larger than the transcript number, in each iteration of modeling and testing, PPEA reduces the potential risk of overfitting. We show with three different cases studies that: (1 PPEA can quickly derive a reliable rank order of predictive power of individual transcripts in a relatively small number of iterations, (2 the top ranked transcripts tend to be functionally related to the phenotype they are intended to predict, (3 using only the most predictive top ranked transcripts greatly facilitates development of multiplex assay such as qRT-PCR as a biomarker, and (4 more importantly, we were able to demonstrate that a small number of genes identified from the top-ranked transcripts are highly predictive of phenotype as their expression changes distinguished adverse from nonadverse effects of compounds in completely independent tests. Thus, we believe that the PPEA model effectively addresses the over-fitting problem and can be used to facilitate genomic biomarker discovery for predictive toxicology and drug responses.

  2. New algorithm for risk analysis in radiotherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Torres, Antonio; Montes de Oca, Joe

    2015-01-01

    Risk analyses applied to radiotherapy treatments have become an undeniable necessity, considering the dangers generated by the combination of using powerful radiation fields on patients and the occurrence of human errors and equipment failures during these treatments. The technique par excellence to execute these analyses has been the risk matrix. This paper presents the development of a new algorithm to execute the task with wide graphic and analytic potentialities, thus transforming it into a very useful option for risk monitoring and the optimization of quality assurance. The system SECURE- MR, which is the basic software of this algorithm, has been successfully used in risk analysis regarding different kinds of radiotherapies. Compared to previous methods, It offers new possibilities of analysis considering risk controlling factors as the robustness of reducers of initiators frequency and its consequences. Their analytic capacities and graphs allow novel developments to classify risk contributing factors, to represent information processes as well as accidental sequences. The paper shows the application of the proposed system to a generic process of radiotherapy treatment using a lineal accelerator. (author)

  3. Improved hybrid optimization algorithm for 3D protein structure prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Changjun; Hou, Caixia; Wei, Xiaopeng; Zhang, Qiang

    2014-07-01

    A new improved hybrid optimization algorithm - PGATS algorithm, which is based on toy off-lattice model, is presented for dealing with three-dimensional protein structure prediction problems. The algorithm combines the particle swarm optimization (PSO), genetic algorithm (GA), and tabu search (TS) algorithms. Otherwise, we also take some different improved strategies. The factor of stochastic disturbance is joined in the particle swarm optimization to improve the search ability; the operations of crossover and mutation that are in the genetic algorithm are changed to a kind of random liner method; at last tabu search algorithm is improved by appending a mutation operator. Through the combination of a variety of strategies and algorithms, the protein structure prediction (PSP) in a 3D off-lattice model is achieved. The PSP problem is an NP-hard problem, but the problem can be attributed to a global optimization problem of multi-extremum and multi-parameters. This is the theoretical principle of the hybrid optimization algorithm that is proposed in this paper. The algorithm combines local search and global search, which overcomes the shortcoming of a single algorithm, giving full play to the advantage of each algorithm. In the current universal standard sequences, Fibonacci sequences and real protein sequences are certified. Experiments show that the proposed new method outperforms single algorithms on the accuracy of calculating the protein sequence energy value, which is proved to be an effective way to predict the structure of proteins.

  4. Melanoma Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing melanoma cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  5. Quantifying prognosis with risk predictions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pace, Nathan L; Eberhart, Leopold H J; Kranke, Peter R

    2012-01-01

    Prognosis is a forecast, based on present observations in a patient, of their probable outcome from disease, surgery and so on. Research methods for the development of risk probabilities may not be familiar to some anaesthesiologists. We briefly describe methods for identifying risk factors and risk scores. A probability prediction rule assigns a risk probability to a patient for the occurrence of a specific event. Probability reflects the continuum between absolute certainty (Pi = 1) and certified impossibility (Pi = 0). Biomarkers and clinical covariates that modify risk are known as risk factors. The Pi as modified by risk factors can be estimated by identifying the risk factors and their weighting; these are usually obtained by stepwise logistic regression. The accuracy of probabilistic predictors can be separated into the concepts of 'overall performance', 'discrimination' and 'calibration'. Overall performance is the mathematical distance between predictions and outcomes. Discrimination is the ability of the predictor to rank order observations with different outcomes. Calibration is the correctness of prediction probabilities on an absolute scale. Statistical methods include the Brier score, coefficient of determination (Nagelkerke R2), C-statistic and regression calibration. External validation is the comparison of the actual outcomes to the predicted outcomes in a new and independent patient sample. External validation uses the statistical methods of overall performance, discrimination and calibration and is uniformly recommended before acceptance of the prediction model. Evidence from randomised controlled clinical trials should be obtained to show the effectiveness of risk scores for altering patient management and patient outcomes.

  6. A prediction algorithm for first onset of major depression in the general population: development and validation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, JianLi; Sareen, Jitender; Patten, Scott; Bolton, James; Schmitz, Norbert; Birney, Arden

    2014-05-01

    Prediction algorithms are useful for making clinical decisions and for population health planning. However, such prediction algorithms for first onset of major depression do not exist. The objective of this study was to develop and validate a prediction algorithm for first onset of major depression in the general population. Longitudinal study design with approximate 3-year follow-up. The study was based on data from a nationally representative sample of the US general population. A total of 28 059 individuals who participated in Waves 1 and 2 of the US National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions and who had not had major depression at Wave 1 were included. The prediction algorithm was developed using logistic regression modelling in 21 813 participants from three census regions. The algorithm was validated in participants from the 4th census region (n=6246). Major depression occurred since Wave 1 of the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions, assessed by the Alcohol Use Disorder and Associated Disabilities Interview Schedule-diagnostic and statistical manual for mental disorders IV. A prediction algorithm containing 17 unique risk factors was developed. The algorithm had good discriminative power (C statistics=0.7538, 95% CI 0.7378 to 0.7699) and excellent calibration (F-adjusted test=1.00, p=0.448) with the weighted data. In the validation sample, the algorithm had a C statistic of 0.7259 and excellent calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow χ(2)=3.41, p=0.906). The developed prediction algorithm has good discrimination and calibration capacity. It can be used by clinicians, mental health policy-makers and service planners and the general public to predict future risk of having major depression. The application of the algorithm may lead to increased personalisation of treatment, better clinical decisions and more optimal mental health service planning.

  7. An Improved Algorithm for Predicting Free Recalls

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laming, Donald

    2008-01-01

    Laming [Laming, D. (2006). "Predicting free recalls." "Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition," 32, 1146-1163] has shown that, in a free-recall experiment in which the participants rehearsed out loud, entire sequences of recalls could be predicted, to a useful degree of precision, from the prior sequences of stimuli…

  8. MHC Class II epitope predictive algorithms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Morten; Lund, Ole; Buus, S

    2010-01-01

    Major histocompatibility complex class II (MHC-II) molecules sample peptides from the extracellular space, allowing the immune system to detect the presence of foreign microbes from this compartment. To be able to predict the immune response to given pathogens, a number of methods have been...... developed to predict peptide-MHC binding. However, few methods other than the pioneering TEPITOPE/ProPred method have been developed for MHC-II. Despite recent progress in method development, the predictive performance for MHC-II remains significantly lower than what can be obtained for MHC-I. One reason...

  9. Appendix F. Developmental enforcement algorithm definition document : predictive braking enforcement algorithm definition document.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-05-01

    The purpose of this document is to fully define and describe the logic flow and mathematical equations for a predictive braking enforcement algorithm intended for implementation in a Positive Train Control (PTC) system.

  10. Predicting Students’ Performance using Modified ID3 Algorithm

    OpenAIRE

    Ramanathan L; Saksham Dhanda; Suresh Kumar D

    2013-01-01

    The ability to predict performance of students is very crucial in our present education system. We can use data mining concepts for this purpose. ID3 algorithm is one of the famous algorithms present today to generate decision trees. But this algorithm has a shortcoming that it is inclined to attributes with many values. So , this research aims to overcome this shortcoming of the algorithm by using gain ratio(instead of information gain) as well as by giving weights to each attribute at every...

  11. Dynamic Algorithm for LQGPC Predictive Control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hangstrup, M.; Ordys, A.W.; Grimble, M.J.

    1998-01-01

    In this paper the optimal control law is derived for a multi-variable state space Linear Quadratic Gaussian Predictive Controller (LQGPC). A dynamic performance index is utilized resulting in an optimal steady state controller. Knowledge of future reference values is incorporated into the control......In this paper the optimal control law is derived for a multi-variable state space Linear Quadratic Gaussian Predictive Controller (LQGPC). A dynamic performance index is utilized resulting in an optimal steady state controller. Knowledge of future reference values is incorporated...... into the controller design and the solution is derived using the method of Lagrange multipliers. It is shown how well-known GPC controller can be obtained as a special case of the LQGPC controller design. The important advantage of using the LQGPC framework for designing predictive, e.g. GPS is that LQGPC enables...

  12. Computationally efficient model predictive control algorithms a neural network approach

    CERN Document Server

    Ławryńczuk, Maciej

    2014-01-01

    This book thoroughly discusses computationally efficient (suboptimal) Model Predictive Control (MPC) techniques based on neural models. The subjects treated include: ·         A few types of suboptimal MPC algorithms in which a linear approximation of the model or of the predicted trajectory is successively calculated on-line and used for prediction. ·         Implementation details of the MPC algorithms for feedforward perceptron neural models, neural Hammerstein models, neural Wiener models and state-space neural models. ·         The MPC algorithms based on neural multi-models (inspired by the idea of predictive control). ·         The MPC algorithms with neural approximation with no on-line linearization. ·         The MPC algorithms with guaranteed stability and robustness. ·         Cooperation between the MPC algorithms and set-point optimization. Thanks to linearization (or neural approximation), the presented suboptimal algorithms do not require d...

  13. Evaluating ortholog prediction algorithms in a yeast model clade.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leonidas Salichos

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Accurate identification of orthologs is crucial for evolutionary studies and for functional annotation. Several algorithms have been developed for ortholog delineation, but so far, manually curated genome-scale biological databases of orthologous genes for algorithm evaluation have been lacking. We evaluated four popular ortholog prediction algorithms (MultiParanoid; and OrthoMCL; RBH: Reciprocal Best Hit; RSD: Reciprocal Smallest Distance; the last two extended into clustering algorithms cRBH and cRSD, respectively, so that they can predict orthologs across multiple taxa against a set of 2,723 groups of high-quality curated orthologs from 6 Saccharomycete yeasts in the Yeast Gene Order Browser. RESULTS: Examination of sensitivity [TP/(TP+FN], specificity [TN/(TN+FP], and accuracy [(TP+TN/(TP+TN+FP+FN] across a broad parameter range showed that cRBH was the most accurate and specific algorithm, whereas OrthoMCL was the most sensitive. Evaluation of the algorithms across a varying number of species showed that cRBH had the highest accuracy and lowest false discovery rate [FP/(FP+TP], followed by cRSD. Of the six species in our set, three descended from an ancestor that underwent whole genome duplication. Subsequent differential duplicate loss events in the three descendants resulted in distinct classes of gene loss patterns, including cases where the genes retained in the three descendants are paralogs, constituting 'traps' for ortholog prediction algorithms. We found that the false discovery rate of all algorithms dramatically increased in these traps. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that simple algorithms, like cRBH, may be better ortholog predictors than more complex ones (e.g., OrthoMCL and MultiParanoid for evolutionary and functional genomics studies where the objective is the accurate inference of single-copy orthologs (e.g., molecular phylogenetics, but that all algorithms fail to accurately predict orthologs when paralogy

  14. Validation Study of a Predictive Algorithm to Evaluate Opioid Use Disorder in a Primary Care Setting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Maneesh; Lee, Chee; Kantorovich, Svetlana; Tedtaotao, Maria; Smith, Gregory A.

    2017-01-01

    Background: Opioid abuse in chronic pain patients is a major public health issue. Primary care providers are frequently the first to prescribe opioids to patients suffering from pain, yet do not always have the time or resources to adequately evaluate the risk of opioid use disorder (OUD). Purpose: This study seeks to determine the predictability of aberrant behavior to opioids using a comprehensive scoring algorithm (“profile”) incorporating phenotypic and, more uniquely, genotypic risk factors. Methods and Results: In a validation study with 452 participants diagnosed with OUD and 1237 controls, the algorithm successfully categorized patients at high and moderate risk of OUD with 91.8% sensitivity. Regardless of changes in the prevalence of OUD, sensitivity of the algorithm remained >90%. Conclusion: The algorithm correctly stratifies primary care patients into low-, moderate-, and high-risk categories to appropriately identify patients in need for additional guidance, monitoring, or treatment changes. PMID:28890908

  15. Developmental dyslexia: predicting individual risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Paul A; Hulme, Charles; Nash, Hannah M; Gooch, Debbie; Hayiou-Thomas, Emma; Snowling, Margaret J

    2015-09-01

    Causal theories of dyslexia suggest that it is a heritable disorder, which is the outcome of multiple risk factors. However, whether early screening for dyslexia is viable is not yet known. The study followed children at high risk of dyslexia from preschool through the early primary years assessing them from age 3 years and 6 months (T1) at approximately annual intervals on tasks tapping cognitive, language, and executive-motor skills. The children were recruited to three groups: children at family risk of dyslexia, children with concerns regarding speech, and language development at 3;06 years and controls considered to be typically developing. At 8 years, children were classified as 'dyslexic' or not. Logistic regression models were used to predict the individual risk of dyslexia and to investigate how risk factors accumulate to predict poor literacy outcomes. Family-risk status was a stronger predictor of dyslexia at 8 years than low language in preschool. Additional predictors in the preschool years include letter knowledge, phonological awareness, rapid automatized naming, and executive skills. At the time of school entry, language skills become significant predictors, and motor skills add a small but significant increase to the prediction probability. We present classification accuracy using different probability cutoffs for logistic regression models and ROC curves to highlight the accumulation of risk factors at the individual level. Dyslexia is the outcome of multiple risk factors and children with language difficulties at school entry are at high risk. Family history of dyslexia is a predictor of literacy outcome from the preschool years. However, screening does not reach an acceptable clinical level until close to school entry when letter knowledge, phonological awareness, and RAN, rather than family risk, together provide good sensitivity and specificity as a screening battery. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry published by

  16. Evaluation of the performance of existing non-laboratory based cardiovascular risk assessment algorithms

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Background The high burden and rising incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in resource constrained countries necessitates implementation of robust and pragmatic primary and secondary prevention strategies. Many current CVD management guidelines recommend absolute cardiovascular (CV) risk assessment as a clinically sound guide to preventive and treatment strategies. Development of non-laboratory based cardiovascular risk assessment algorithms enable absolute risk assessment in resource constrained countries. The objective of this review is to evaluate the performance of existing non-laboratory based CV risk assessment algorithms using the benchmarks for clinically useful CV risk assessment algorithms outlined by Cooney and colleagues. Methods A literature search to identify non-laboratory based risk prediction algorithms was performed in MEDLINE, CINAHL, Ovid Premier Nursing Journals Plus, and PubMed databases. The identified algorithms were evaluated using the benchmarks for clinically useful cardiovascular risk assessment algorithms outlined by Cooney and colleagues. Results Five non-laboratory based CV risk assessment algorithms were identified. The Gaziano and Framingham algorithms met the criteria for appropriateness of statistical methods used to derive the algorithms and endpoints. The Swedish Consultation, Framingham and Gaziano algorithms demonstrated good discrimination in derivation datasets. Only the Gaziano algorithm was externally validated where it had optimal discrimination. The Gaziano and WHO algorithms had chart formats which made them simple and user friendly for clinical application. Conclusion Both the Gaziano and Framingham non-laboratory based algorithms met most of the criteria outlined by Cooney and colleagues. External validation of the algorithms in diverse samples is needed to ascertain their performance and applicability to different populations and to enhance clinicians’ confidence in them. PMID:24373202

  17. Empirical algorithms to predict aragonite saturation state

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turk, Daniela; Dowd, Michael

    2017-04-01

    Novel sensor packages deployed on autonomous platforms (Profiling Floats, Gliders, Moorings, SeaCycler) and biogeochemical models have a potential to increase the coverage of a key water chemistry variable, aragonite saturation state (ΩAr) in time and space, in particular in the under sampled regions of global ocean. However, these do not provide the set of inorganic carbon measurements commonly used to derive ΩAr. There is therefore a need to develop regional predictive models to determine ΩAr from measurements of commonly observed or/and non carbonate oceanic variables. Here, we investigate predictive skill of several commonly observed oceanographic variables (temperature, salinity, oxygen, nitrate, phosphate and silicate) in determining ΩAr using climatology and shipboard data. This will allow us to assess potential for autonomous sensors and biogeochemical models to monitor ΩAr regionally and globally. We apply the regression models to several time series data sets and discuss regional differences and their implications for global estimates of ΩAr.

  18. Adaptive Outlier-tolerant Exponential Smoothing Prediction Algorithms with Applications to Predict the Temperature in Spacecraft

    OpenAIRE

    Hu Shaolin; Zhang Wei; Li Ye; Fan Shunxi

    2011-01-01

    The exponential smoothing prediction algorithm is widely used in spaceflight control and in process monitoring as well as in economical prediction. There are two key conundrums which are open: one is about the selective rule of the parameter in the exponential smoothing prediction, and the other is how to improve the bad influence of outliers on prediction. In this paper a new practical outlier-tolerant algorithm is built to select adaptively proper parameter, and the exponential smoothing pr...

  19. The wind power prediction research based on mind evolutionary algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhuang, Ling; Zhao, Xinjian; Ji, Tianming; Miao, Jingwen; Cui, Haina

    2018-04-01

    When the wind power is connected to the power grid, its characteristics of fluctuation, intermittent and randomness will affect the stability of the power system. The wind power prediction can guarantee the power quality and reduce the operating cost of power system. There were some limitations in several traditional wind power prediction methods. On the basis, the wind power prediction method based on Mind Evolutionary Algorithm (MEA) is put forward and a prediction model is provided. The experimental results demonstrate that MEA performs efficiently in term of the wind power prediction. The MEA method has broad prospect of engineering application.

  20. A Traffic Prediction Algorithm for Street Lighting Control Efficiency

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    POPA Valentin

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the development of a traffic prediction algorithm that can be integrated in a street lighting monitoring and control system. The prediction algorithm must enable the reduction of energy costs and improve energy efficiency by decreasing the light intensity depending on the traffic level. The algorithm analyses and processes the information received at the command center based on the traffic level at different moments. The data is collected by means of the Doppler vehicle detection sensors integrated within the system. Thus, two methods are used for the implementation of the algorithm: a neural network and a k-NN (k-Nearest Neighbor prediction algorithm. For 500 training cycles, the mean square error of the neural network is 9.766 and for 500.000 training cycles the error amounts to 0.877. In case of the k-NN algorithm the error increases from 8.24 for k=5 to 12.27 for a number of 50 neighbors. In terms of a root means square error parameter, the use of a neural network ensures the highest performance level and can be integrated in a street lighting control system.

  1. Evaluating and comparing algorithms for respiratory motion prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ernst, F; Dürichen, R; Schlaefer, A; Schweikard, A

    2013-01-01

    In robotic radiosurgery, it is necessary to compensate for systematic latencies arising from target tracking and mechanical constraints. This compensation is usually achieved by means of an algorithm which computes the future target position. In most scientific works on respiratory motion prediction, only one or two algorithms are evaluated on a limited amount of very short motion traces. The purpose of this work is to gain more insight into the real world capabilities of respiratory motion prediction methods by evaluating many algorithms on an unprecedented amount of data. We have evaluated six algorithms, the normalized least mean squares (nLMS), recursive least squares (RLS), multi-step linear methods (MULIN), wavelet-based multiscale autoregression (wLMS), extended Kalman filtering, and ε-support vector regression (SVRpred) methods, on an extensive database of 304 respiratory motion traces. The traces were collected during treatment with the CyberKnife (Accuray, Inc., Sunnyvale, CA, USA) and feature an average length of 71 min. Evaluation was done using a graphical prediction toolkit, which is available to the general public, as is the data we used. The experiments show that the nLMS algorithm—which is one of the algorithms currently used in the CyberKnife—is outperformed by all other methods. This is especially true in the case of the wLMS, the SVRpred, and the MULIN algorithms, which perform much better. The nLMS algorithm produces a relative root mean square (RMS) error of 75% or less (i.e., a reduction in error of 25% or more when compared to not doing prediction) in only 38% of the test cases, whereas the MULIN and SVRpred methods reach this level in more than 77%, the wLMS algorithm in more than 84% of the test cases. Our work shows that the wLMS algorithm is the most accurate algorithm and does not require parameter tuning, making it an ideal candidate for clinical implementation. Additionally, we have seen that the structure of a patient

  2. The Ship Movement Trajectory Prediction Algorithm Using Navigational Data Fusion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borkowski, Piotr

    2017-06-20

    It is essential for the marine navigator conducting maneuvers of his ship at sea to know future positions of himself and target ships in a specific time span to effectively solve collision situations. This article presents an algorithm of ship movement trajectory prediction, which, through data fusion, takes into account measurements of the ship's current position from a number of doubled autonomous devices. This increases the reliability and accuracy of prediction. The algorithm has been implemented in NAVDEC, a navigation decision support system and practically used on board ships.

  3. A recurrence-weighted prediction algorithm for musical analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colucci, Renato; Leguizamon Cucunuba, Juan Sebastián; Lloyd, Simon

    2018-03-01

    Forecasting the future behaviour of a system using past data is an important topic. In this article we apply nonlinear time series analysis in the context of music, and present new algorithms for extending a sample of music, while maintaining characteristics similar to the original piece. By using ideas from ergodic theory, we adapt the classical prediction method of Lorenz analogues so as to take into account recurrence times, and demonstrate with examples, how the new algorithm can produce predictions with a high degree of similarity to the original sample.

  4. The Ship Movement Trajectory Prediction Algorithm Using Navigational Data Fusion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Piotr Borkowski

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available It is essential for the marine navigator conducting maneuvers of his ship at sea to know future positions of himself and target ships in a specific time span to effectively solve collision situations. This article presents an algorithm of ship movement trajectory prediction, which, through data fusion, takes into account measurements of the ship’s current position from a number of doubled autonomous devices. This increases the reliability and accuracy of prediction. The algorithm has been implemented in NAVDEC, a navigation decision support system and practically used on board ships.

  5. Real coded genetic algorithm for fuzzy time series prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jain, Shilpa; Bisht, Dinesh C. S.; Singh, Phool; Mathpal, Prakash C.

    2017-10-01

    Genetic Algorithm (GA) forms a subset of evolutionary computing, rapidly growing area of Artificial Intelligence (A.I.). Some variants of GA are binary GA, real GA, messy GA, micro GA, saw tooth GA, differential evolution GA. This research article presents a real coded GA for predicting enrollments of University of Alabama. Data of Alabama University is a fuzzy time series. Here, fuzzy logic is used to predict enrollments of Alabama University and genetic algorithm optimizes fuzzy intervals. Results are compared to other eminent author works and found satisfactory, and states that real coded GA are fast and accurate.

  6. Oximeter-based autonomic state indicator algorithm for cardiovascular risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grote, Ludger; Sommermeyer, Dirk; Zou, Ding; Eder, Derek N; Hedner, Jan

    2011-02-01

    Cardiovascular (CV) risk assessment is important in clinical practice. An autonomic state indicator (ASI) algorithm based on pulse oximetry was developed and validated for CV risk assessment. One hundred forty-eight sleep clinic patients (98 men, mean age 50 ± 13 years) underwent an overnight study using a novel photoplethysmographic sensor. CV risk was classified according to the European Society of Hypertension/European Society of Cardiology (ESH/ESC) risk factor matrix. Five signal components reflecting cardiac and vascular activity (pulse wave attenuation, pulse rate acceleration, pulse propagation time, respiration-related pulse oscillation, and oxygen desaturation) extracted from 99 randomly selected subjects were used to train the classification algorithm. The capacity of the algorithm for CV risk prediction was validated in 49 additional patients. Each signal component contributed independently to CV risk prediction. The sensitivity and specificity of the algorithm to distinguish high/low CV risk in the validation group were 80% and 77%, respectively. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for high CV risk classification was 0.84. β-Blocker treatment was identified as an important factor for classification that was not in line with the ESH/ESC reference matrix. Signals derived from overnight oximetry recording provide a novel potential tool for CV risk classification. Prospective studies are warranted to establish the value of the ASI algorithm for prediction of outcome in CV disease.

  7. Which clustering algorithm is better for predicting protein complexes?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moschopoulos Charalampos N

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Protein-Protein interactions (PPI play a key role in determining the outcome of most cellular processes. The correct identification and characterization of protein interactions and the networks, which they comprise, is critical for understanding the molecular mechanisms within the cell. Large-scale techniques such as pull down assays and tandem affinity purification are used in order to detect protein interactions in an organism. Today, relatively new high-throughput methods like yeast two hybrid, mass spectrometry, microarrays, and phage display are also used to reveal protein interaction networks. Results In this paper we evaluated four different clustering algorithms using six different interaction datasets. We parameterized the MCL, Spectral, RNSC and Affinity Propagation algorithms and applied them to six PPI datasets produced experimentally by Yeast 2 Hybrid (Y2H and Tandem Affinity Purification (TAP methods. The predicted clusters, so called protein complexes, were then compared and benchmarked with already known complexes stored in published databases. Conclusions While results may differ upon parameterization, the MCL and RNSC algorithms seem to be more promising and more accurate at predicting PPI complexes. Moreover, they predict more complexes than other reviewed algorithms in absolute numbers. On the other hand the spectral clustering algorithm achieves the highest valid prediction rate in our experiments. However, it is nearly always outperformed by both RNSC and MCL in terms of the geometrical accuracy while it generates the fewest valid clusters than any other reviewed algorithm. This article demonstrates various metrics to evaluate the accuracy of such predictions as they are presented in the text below. Supplementary material can be found at: http://www.bioacademy.gr/bioinformatics/projects/ppireview.htm

  8. A range-based predictive localization algorithm for WSID networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yuan; Chen, Junjie; Li, Gang

    2017-11-01

    Most studies on localization algorithms are conducted on the sensor networks with densely distributed nodes. However, the non-localizable problems are prone to occur in the network with sparsely distributed sensor nodes. To solve this problem, a range-based predictive localization algorithm (RPLA) is proposed in this paper for the wireless sensor networks syncretizing the RFID (WSID) networks. The Gaussian mixture model is established to predict the trajectory of a mobile target. Then, the received signal strength indication is used to reduce the residence area of the target location based on the approximate point-in-triangulation test algorithm. In addition, collaborative localization schemes are introduced to locate the target in the non-localizable situations. Simulation results verify that the RPLA achieves accurate localization for the network with sparsely distributed sensor nodes. The localization accuracy of the RPLA is 48.7% higher than that of the APIT algorithm, 16.8% higher than that of the single Gaussian model-based algorithm and 10.5% higher than that of the Kalman filtering-based algorithm.

  9. Fuzzy model predictive control algorithm applied in nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zuheir, Ahmad

    2006-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to design a predictive controller based on a fuzzy model. The Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy model with an Adaptive B-splines neuro-fuzzy implementation is used and incorporated as a predictor in a predictive controller. An optimization approach with a simplified gradient technique is used to calculate predictions of the future control actions. In this approach, adaptation of the fuzzy model using dynamic process information is carried out to build the predictive controller. The easy description of the fuzzy model and the easy computation of the gradient sector during the optimization procedure are the main advantages of the computation algorithm. The algorithm is applied to the control of a U-tube steam generation unit (UTSG) used for electricity generation. (author)

  10. Predicting Subcellular Localization of Proteins by Bioinformatic Algorithms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Henrik

    2015-01-01

    was used. Various statistical and machine learning algorithms are used with all three approaches, and various measures and standards are employed when reporting the performances of the developed methods. This chapter presents a number of available methods for prediction of sorting signals and subcellular...

  11. Accurate Prediction of Coronary Artery Disease Using Bioinformatics Algorithms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hajar Shafiee

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Background and Objectives: Cardiovascular disease is one of the main causes of death in developed and Third World countries. According to the statement of the World Health Organization, it is predicted that death due to heart disease will rise to 23 million by 2030. According to the latest statistics reported by Iran’s Minister of health, 3.39% of all deaths are attributed to cardiovascular diseases and 19.5% are related to myocardial infarction. The aim of this study was to predict coronary artery disease using data mining algorithms. Methods: In this study, various bioinformatics algorithms, such as decision trees, neural networks, support vector machines, clustering, etc., were used to predict coronary heart disease. The data used in this study was taken from several valid databases (including 14 data. Results: In this research, data mining techniques can be effectively used to diagnose different diseases, including coronary artery disease. Also, for the first time, a prediction system based on support vector machine with the best possible accuracy was introduced. Conclusion: The results showed that among the features, thallium scan variable is the most important feature in the diagnosis of heart disease. Designation of machine prediction models, such as support vector machine learning algorithm can differentiate between sick and healthy individuals with 100% accuracy.

  12. Fast prediction of RNA-RNA interaction using heuristic algorithm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montaseri, Soheila

    2015-01-01

    Interaction between two RNA molecules plays a crucial role in many medical and biological processes such as gene expression regulation. In this process, an RNA molecule prohibits the translation of another RNA molecule by establishing stable interactions with it. Some algorithms have been formed to predict the structure of the RNA-RNA interaction. High computational time is a common challenge in most of the presented algorithms. In this context, a heuristic method is introduced to accurately predict the interaction between two RNAs based on minimum free energy (MFE). This algorithm uses a few dot matrices for finding the secondary structure of each RNA and binding sites between two RNAs. Furthermore, a parallel version of this method is presented. We describe the algorithm's concurrency and parallelism for a multicore chip. The proposed algorithm has been performed on some datasets including CopA-CopT, R1inv-R2inv, Tar-Tar*, DIS-DIS, and IncRNA54-RepZ in Escherichia coli bacteria. The method has high validity and efficiency, and it is run in low computational time in comparison to other approaches.

  13. Prediction of Baseflow Index of Catchments using Machine Learning Algorithms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yadav, B.; Hatfield, K.

    2017-12-01

    We present the results of eight machine learning techniques for predicting the baseflow index (BFI) of ungauged basins using a surrogate of catchment scale climate and physiographic data. The tested algorithms include ordinary least squares, ridge regression, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (lasso), elasticnet, support vector machine, gradient boosted regression trees, random forests, and extremely randomized trees. Our work seeks to identify the dominant controls of BFI that can be readily obtained from ancillary geospatial databases and remote sensing measurements, such that the developed techniques can be extended to ungauged catchments. More than 800 gauged catchments spanning the continental United States were selected to develop the general methodology. The BFI calculation was based on the baseflow separated from daily streamflow hydrograph using HYSEP filter. The surrogate catchment attributes were compiled from multiple sources including digital elevation model, soil, landuse, climate data, other publicly available ancillary and geospatial data. 80% catchments were used to train the ML algorithms, and the remaining 20% of the catchments were used as an independent test set to measure the generalization performance of fitted models. A k-fold cross-validation using exhaustive grid search was used to fit the hyperparameters of each model. Initial model development was based on 19 independent variables, but after variable selection and feature ranking, we generated revised sparse models of BFI prediction that are based on only six catchment attributes. These key predictive variables selected after the careful evaluation of bias-variance tradeoff include average catchment elevation, slope, fraction of sand, permeability, temperature, and precipitation. The most promising algorithms exceeding an accuracy score (r-square) of 0.7 on test data include support vector machine, gradient boosted regression trees, random forests, and extremely randomized

  14. Machine Learning Algorithms Outperform Conventional Regression Models in Predicting Development of Hepatocellular Carcinoma

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singal, Amit G.; Mukherjee, Ashin; Elmunzer, B. Joseph; Higgins, Peter DR; Lok, Anna S.; Zhu, Ji; Marrero, Jorge A; Waljee, Akbar K

    2015-01-01

    Background Predictive models for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) have been limited by modest accuracy and lack of validation. Machine learning algorithms offer a novel methodology, which may improve HCC risk prognostication among patients with cirrhosis. Our study's aim was to develop and compare predictive models for HCC development among cirrhotic patients, using conventional regression analysis and machine learning algorithms. Methods We enrolled 442 patients with Child A or B cirrhosis at the University of Michigan between January 2004 and September 2006 (UM cohort) and prospectively followed them until HCC development, liver transplantation, death, or study termination. Regression analysis and machine learning algorithms were used to construct predictive models for HCC development, which were tested on an independent validation cohort from the Hepatitis C Antiviral Long-term Treatment against Cirrhosis (HALT-C) Trial. Both models were also compared to the previously published HALT-C model. Discrimination was assessed using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis and diagnostic accuracy was assessed with net reclassification improvement and integrated discrimination improvement statistics. Results After a median follow-up of 3.5 years, 41 patients developed HCC. The UM regression model had a c-statistic of 0.61 (95%CI 0.56-0.67), whereas the machine learning algorithm had a c-statistic of 0.64 (95%CI 0.60–0.69) in the validation cohort. The machine learning algorithm had significantly better diagnostic accuracy as assessed by net reclassification improvement (pmachine learning algorithm (p=0.047). Conclusion Machine learning algorithms improve the accuracy of risk stratifying patients with cirrhosis and can be used to accurately identify patients at high-risk for developing HCC. PMID:24169273

  15. Predicting Coastal Flood Severity using Random Forest Algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadler, J. M.; Goodall, J. L.; Morsy, M. M.; Spencer, K.

    2017-12-01

    Coastal floods have become more common recently and are predicted to further increase in frequency and severity due to sea level rise. Predicting floods in coastal cities can be difficult due to the number of environmental and geographic factors which can influence flooding events. Built stormwater infrastructure and irregular urban landscapes add further complexity. This paper demonstrates the use of machine learning algorithms in predicting street flood occurrence in an urban coastal setting. The model is trained and evaluated using data from Norfolk, Virginia USA from September 2010 - October 2016. Rainfall, tide levels, water table levels, and wind conditions are used as input variables. Street flooding reports made by city workers after named and unnamed storm events, ranging from 1-159 reports per event, are the model output. Results show that Random Forest provides predictive power in estimating the number of flood occurrences given a set of environmental conditions with an out-of-bag root mean squared error of 4.3 flood reports and a mean absolute error of 0.82 flood reports. The Random Forest algorithm performed much better than Poisson regression. From the Random Forest model, total daily rainfall was by far the most important factor in flood occurrence prediction, followed by daily low tide and daily higher high tide. The model demonstrated here could be used to predict flood severity based on forecast rainfall and tide conditions and could be further enhanced using more complete street flooding data for model training.

  16. Comparison of genetic algorithm and imperialist competitive algorithms in predicting bed load transport in clean pipe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebtehaj, Isa; Bonakdari, Hossein

    2014-01-01

    The existence of sediments in wastewater greatly affects the performance of the sewer and wastewater transmission systems. Increased sedimentation in wastewater collection systems causes problems such as reduced transmission capacity and early combined sewer overflow. The article reviews the performance of the genetic algorithm (GA) and imperialist competitive algorithm (ICA) in minimizing the target function (mean square error of observed and predicted Froude number). To study the impact of bed load transport parameters, using four non-dimensional groups, six different models have been presented. Moreover, the roulette wheel selection method is used to select the parents. The ICA with root mean square error (RMSE) = 0.007, mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) = 3.5% show better results than GA (RMSE = 0.007, MAPE = 5.6%) for the selected model. All six models return better results than the GA. Also, the results of these two algorithms were compared with multi-layer perceptron and existing equations.

  17. Incorporating functional inter-relationships into protein function prediction algorithms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kumar Vipin

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Functional classification schemes (e.g. the Gene Ontology that serve as the basis for annotation efforts in several organisms are often the source of gold standard information for computational efforts at supervised protein function prediction. While successful function prediction algorithms have been developed, few previous efforts have utilized more than the protein-to-functional class label information provided by such knowledge bases. For instance, the Gene Ontology not only captures protein annotations to a set of functional classes, but it also arranges these classes in a DAG-based hierarchy that captures rich inter-relationships between different classes. These inter-relationships present both opportunities, such as the potential for additional training examples for small classes from larger related classes, and challenges, such as a harder to learn distinction between similar GO terms, for standard classification-based approaches. Results We propose a method to enhance the performance of classification-based protein function prediction algorithms by addressing the issue of using these interrelationships between functional classes constituting functional classification schemes. Using a standard measure for evaluating the semantic similarity between nodes in an ontology, we quantify and incorporate these inter-relationships into the k-nearest neighbor classifier. We present experiments on several large genomic data sets, each of which is used for the modeling and prediction of over hundred classes from the GO Biological Process ontology. The results show that this incorporation produces more accurate predictions for a large number of the functional classes considered, and also that the classes benefitted most by this approach are those containing the fewest members. In addition, we show how our proposed framework can be used for integrating information from the entire GO hierarchy for improving the accuracy of

  18. Chaos Time Series Prediction Based on Membrane Optimization Algorithms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meng Li

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper puts forward a prediction model based on membrane computing optimization algorithm for chaos time series; the model optimizes simultaneously the parameters of phase space reconstruction (τ,m and least squares support vector machine (LS-SVM (γ,σ by using membrane computing optimization algorithm. It is an important basis for spectrum management to predict accurately the change trend of parameters in the electromagnetic environment, which can help decision makers to adopt an optimal action. Then, the model presented in this paper is used to forecast band occupancy rate of frequency modulation (FM broadcasting band and interphone band. To show the applicability and superiority of the proposed model, this paper will compare the forecast model presented in it with conventional similar models. The experimental results show that whether single-step prediction or multistep prediction, the proposed model performs best based on three error measures, namely, normalized mean square error (NMSE, root mean square error (RMSE, and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE.

  19. Shape: automatic conformation prediction of carbohydrates using a genetic algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosen Jimmy

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Detailed experimental three dimensional structures of carbohydrates are often difficult to acquire. Molecular modelling and computational conformation prediction are therefore commonly used tools for three dimensional structure studies. Modelling procedures generally require significant training and computing resources, which is often impractical for most experimental chemists and biologists. Shape has been developed to improve the availability of modelling in this field. Results The Shape software package has been developed for simplicity of use and conformation prediction performance. A trivial user interface coupled to an efficient genetic algorithm conformation search makes it a powerful tool for automated modelling. Carbohydrates up to a few hundred atoms in size can be investigated on common computer hardware. It has been shown to perform well for the prediction of over four hundred bioactive oligosaccharides, as well as compare favourably with previously published studies on carbohydrate conformation prediction. Conclusion The Shape fully automated conformation prediction can be used by scientists who lack significant modelling training, and performs well on computing hardware such as laptops and desktops. It can also be deployed on computer clusters for increased capacity. The prediction accuracy under the default settings is good, as it agrees well with experimental data and previously published conformation prediction studies. This software is available both as open source and under commercial licenses.

  20. An early-biomarker algorithm predicts lethal graft-versus-host disease and survival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartwell, Matthew J; Özbek, Umut; Holler, Ernst; Renteria, Anne S; Major-Monfried, Hannah; Reddy, Pavan; Aziz, Mina; Hogan, William J; Ayuk, Francis; Efebera, Yvonne A; Hexner, Elizabeth O; Bunworasate, Udomsak; Qayed, Muna; Ordemann, Rainer; Wölfl, Matthias; Mielke, Stephan; Pawarode, Attaphol; Chen, Yi-Bin; Devine, Steven; Harris, Andrew C; Jagasia, Madan; Kitko, Carrie L; Litzow, Mark R; Kröger, Nicolaus; Locatelli, Franco; Morales, George; Nakamura, Ryotaro; Reshef, Ran; Rösler, Wolf; Weber, Daniela; Wudhikarn, Kitsada; Yanik, Gregory A; Levine, John E; Ferrara, James L M

    2017-02-09

    BACKGROUND. No laboratory test can predict the risk of nonrelapse mortality (NRM) or severe graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) after hematopoietic cellular transplantation (HCT) prior to the onset of GVHD symptoms. METHODS. Patient blood samples on day 7 after HCT were obtained from a multicenter set of 1,287 patients, and 620 samples were assigned to a training set. We measured the concentrations of 4 GVHD biomarkers (ST2, REG3α, TNFR1, and IL-2Rα) and used them to model 6-month NRM using rigorous cross-validation strategies to identify the best algorithm that defined 2 distinct risk groups. We then applied the final algorithm in an independent test set ( n = 309) and validation set ( n = 358). RESULTS. A 2-biomarker model using ST2 and REG3α concentrations identified patients with a cumulative incidence of 6-month NRM of 28% in the high-risk group and 7% in the low-risk group ( P < 0.001). The algorithm performed equally well in the test set (33% vs. 7%, P < 0.001) and the multicenter validation set (26% vs. 10%, P < 0.001). Sixteen percent, 17%, and 20% of patients were at high risk in the training, test, and validation sets, respectively. GVHD-related mortality was greater in high-risk patients (18% vs. 4%, P < 0.001), as was severe gastrointestinal GVHD (17% vs. 8%, P < 0.001). The same algorithm can be successfully adapted to define 3 distinct risk groups at GVHD onset. CONCLUSION. A biomarker algorithm based on a blood sample taken 7 days after HCT can consistently identify a group of patients at high risk for lethal GVHD and NRM. FUNDING. The National Cancer Institute, American Cancer Society, and the Doris Duke Charitable Foundation.

  1. Tail Risk Premia and Return Predictability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bollerslev, Tim; Todorov, Viktor; Xu, Lai

    The variance risk premium, defined as the difference between actual and risk-neutralized expectations of the forward aggregate market variation, helps predict future market returns. Relying on new essentially model-free estimation procedure, we show that much of this predictability may be attribu......The variance risk premium, defined as the difference between actual and risk-neutralized expectations of the forward aggregate market variation, helps predict future market returns. Relying on new essentially model-free estimation procedure, we show that much of this predictability may......-varying economic uncertainty and changes in risk aversion, or market fears, respectively....

  2. Prediction models and control algorithms for predictive applications of setback temperature in cooling systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moon, Jin Woo; Yoon, Younju; Jeon, Young-Hoon; Kim, Sooyoung

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • Initial ANN model was developed for predicting the time to the setback temperature. • Initial model was optimized for producing accurate output. • Optimized model proved its prediction accuracy. • ANN-based algorithms were developed and tested their performance. • ANN-based algorithms presented superior thermal comfort or energy efficiency. - Abstract: In this study, a temperature control algorithm was developed to apply a setback temperature predictively for the cooling system of a residential building during occupied periods by residents. An artificial neural network (ANN) model was developed to determine the required time for increasing the current indoor temperature to the setback temperature. This study involved three phases: development of the initial ANN-based prediction model, optimization and testing of the initial model, and development and testing of three control algorithms. The development and performance testing of the model and algorithm were conducted using TRNSYS and MATLAB. Through the development and optimization process, the final ANN model employed indoor temperature and the temperature difference between the current and target setback temperature as two input neurons. The optimal number of hidden layers, number of neurons, learning rate, and moment were determined to be 4, 9, 0.6, and 0.9, respectively. The tangent–sigmoid and pure-linear transfer function was used in the hidden and output neurons, respectively. The ANN model used 100 training data sets with sliding-window method for data management. Levenberg-Marquart training method was employed for model training. The optimized model had a prediction accuracy of 0.9097 root mean square errors when compared with the simulated results. Employing the ANN model, ANN-based algorithms maintained indoor temperatures better within target ranges. Compared to the conventional algorithm, the ANN-based algorithms reduced the duration of time, in which the indoor temperature

  3. Field-expedient screening and injury risk algorithm categories as predictors of noncontact lower extremity injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehr, M E; Plisky, P J; Butler, R J; Fink, M L; Kiesel, K B; Underwood, F B

    2013-08-01

    In athletics, efficient screening tools are sought to curb the rising number of noncontact injuries and associated health care costs. The authors hypothesized that an injury prediction algorithm that incorporates movement screening performance, demographic information, and injury history can accurately categorize risk of noncontact lower extremity (LE) injury. One hundred eighty-three collegiate athletes were screened during the preseason. The test scores and demographic information were entered into an injury prediction algorithm that weighted the evidence-based risk factors. Athletes were then prospectively followed for noncontact LE injury. Subsequent analysis collapsed the groupings into two risk categories: Low (normal and slight) and High (moderate and substantial). Using these groups and noncontact LE injuries, relative risk (RR), sensitivity, specificity, and likelihood ratios were calculated. Forty-two subjects sustained a noncontact LE injury over the course of the study. Athletes identified as High Risk (n = 63) were at a greater risk of noncontact LE injury (27/63) during the season [RR: 3.4 95% confidence interval 2.0 to 6.0]. These results suggest that an injury prediction algorithm composed of performance on efficient, low-cost, field-ready tests can help identify individuals at elevated risk of noncontact LE injury. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  4. BPP: a sequence-based algorithm for branch point prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Qing; Fan, Xiaodan; Wang, Yejun; Sun, Ming-An; Shao, Jianlin; Guo, Dianjing

    2017-10-15

    Although high-throughput sequencing methods have been proposed to identify splicing branch points in the human genome, these methods can only detect a small fraction of the branch points subject to the sequencing depth, experimental cost and the expression level of the mRNA. An accurate computational model for branch point prediction is therefore an ongoing objective in human genome research. We here propose a novel branch point prediction algorithm that utilizes information on the branch point sequence and the polypyrimidine tract. Using experimentally validated data, we demonstrate that our proposed method outperforms existing methods. Availability and implementation: https://github.com/zhqingit/BPP. djguo@cuhk.edu.hk. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author (2017). Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com

  5. Automation of a high risk medication regime algorithm in a home health care population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olson, Catherine H; Dierich, Mary; Westra, Bonnie L

    2014-10-01

    Create an automated algorithm for predicting elderly patients' medication-related risks for readmission and validate it by comparing results with a manual analysis of the same patient population. Outcome and Assessment Information Set (OASIS) and medication data were reused from a previous, manual study of 911 patients from 15 Medicare-certified home health care agencies. The medication data was converted into standardized drug codes using APIs managed by the National Library of Medicine (NLM), and then integrated in an automated algorithm that calculates patients' high risk medication regime scores (HRMRs). A comparison of the results between algorithm and manual process was conducted to determine how frequently the HRMR scores were derived which are predictive of readmission. HRMR scores are composed of polypharmacy (number of drugs), Potentially Inappropriate Medications (PIM) (drugs risky to the elderly), and Medication Regimen Complexity Index (MRCI) (complex dose forms, instructions or administration). The algorithm produced polypharmacy, PIM, and MRCI scores that matched with 99%, 87% and 99% of the scores, respectively, from the manual analysis. Imperfect match rates resulted from discrepancies in how drugs were classified and coded by the manual analysis vs. the automated algorithm. HRMR rules lack clarity, resulting in clinical judgments for manual coding that were difficult to replicate in the automated analysis. The high comparison rates for the three measures suggest that an automated clinical tool could use patients' medication records to predict their risks of avoidable readmissions. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. External Threat Risk Assessment Algorithm (ExTRAA)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Powell, Troy C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-08-01

    Two risk assessment algorithms and philosophies have been augmented and combined to form a new algorit hm, the External Threat Risk Assessment Algorithm (ExTRAA), that allows for effective and statistically sound analysis of external threat sources in relation to individual attack methods . In addition to the attack method use probability and the attack method employment consequence, t he concept of defining threat sources is added to the risk assessment process. Sample data is tabulated and depicted in radar plots and bar graphs for algorithm demonstration purposes. The largest success of ExTRAA is its ability to visualize the kind of r isk posed in a given situation using the radar plot method.

  7. A probabilistic fragment-based protein structure prediction algorithm.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Simoncini

    Full Text Available Conformational sampling is one of the bottlenecks in fragment-based protein structure prediction approaches. They generally start with a coarse-grained optimization where mainchain atoms and centroids of side chains are considered, followed by a fine-grained optimization with an all-atom representation of proteins. It is during this coarse-grained phase that fragment-based methods sample intensely the conformational space. If the native-like region is sampled more, the accuracy of the final all-atom predictions may be improved accordingly. In this work we present EdaFold, a new method for fragment-based protein structure prediction based on an Estimation of Distribution Algorithm. Fragment-based approaches build protein models by assembling short fragments from known protein structures. Whereas the probability mass functions over the fragment libraries are uniform in the usual case, we propose an algorithm that learns from previously generated decoys and steers the search toward native-like regions. A comparison with Rosetta AbInitio protocol shows that EdaFold is able to generate models with lower energies and to enhance the percentage of near-native coarse-grained decoys on a benchmark of [Formula: see text] proteins. The best coarse-grained models produced by both methods were refined into all-atom models and used in molecular replacement. All atom decoys produced out of EdaFold's decoy set reach high enough accuracy to solve the crystallographic phase problem by molecular replacement for some test proteins. EdaFold showed a higher success rate in molecular replacement when compared to Rosetta. Our study suggests that improving low resolution coarse-grained decoys allows computational methods to avoid subsequent sampling issues during all-atom refinement and to produce better all-atom models. EdaFold can be downloaded from http://www.riken.jp/zhangiru/software.html [corrected].

  8. ANNIT - An Efficient Inversion Algorithm based on Prediction Principles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Růžek, B.; Kolář, P.

    2009-04-01

    Solution of inverse problems represents meaningful job in geophysics. The amount of data is continuously increasing, methods of modeling are being improved and the computer facilities are also advancing great technical progress. Therefore the development of new and efficient algorithms and computer codes for both forward and inverse modeling is still up to date. ANNIT is contributing to this stream since it is a tool for efficient solution of a set of non-linear equations. Typical geophysical problems are based on parametric approach. The system is characterized by a vector of parameters p, the response of the system is characterized by a vector of data d. The forward problem is usually represented by unique mapping F(p)=d. The inverse problem is much more complex and the inverse mapping p=G(d) is available in an analytical or closed form only exceptionally and generally it may not exist at all. Technically, both forward and inverse mapping F and G are sets of non-linear equations. ANNIT solves such situation as follows: (i) joint subspaces {pD, pM} of original data and model spaces D, M, resp. are searched for, within which the forward mapping F is sufficiently smooth that the inverse mapping G does exist, (ii) numerical approximation of G in subspaces {pD, pM} is found, (iii) candidate solution is predicted by using this numerical approximation. ANNIT is working in an iterative way in cycles. The subspaces {pD, pM} are searched for by generating suitable populations of individuals (models) covering data and model spaces. The approximation of the inverse mapping is made by using three methods: (a) linear regression, (b) Radial Basis Function Network technique, (c) linear prediction (also known as "Kriging"). The ANNIT algorithm has built in also an archive of already evaluated models. Archive models are re-used in a suitable way and thus the number of forward evaluations is minimized. ANNIT is now implemented both in MATLAB and SCILAB. Numerical tests show good

  9. WINROP algorithm for prediction of sight threatening retinopathy of prematurity: Initial experience in Indian preterm infants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gaurav Sanghi

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: To determine the efficacy of the online monitoring tool, WINROP (https://winrop.com/ in detecting sight-threatening type 1 retinopathy of prematurity (ROP in Indian preterm infants. Methods: Birth weight, gestational age, and weekly weight measurements of seventy preterm infants (<32 weeks gestation born between June 2014 and August 2016 were entered into WINROP algorithm. Based on weekly weight gain, WINROP algorithm signaled an alarm to indicate that the infant is at risk for sight-threatening Type 1 ROP. ROP screening was done according to standard guidelines. The negative and positive predictive values were calculated using the sensitivity, specificity, and prevalence of ROP type 1 for the study group. 95% confidence interval (CI was calculated. Results: Of the seventy infants enrolled in the study, 31 (44.28% developed Type 1 ROP. WINROP alarm was signaled in 74.28% (52/70 of all infants and 90.32% (28/31 of infants treated for Type 1 ROP. The specificity was 38.46% (15/39. The positive predictive value was 53.84% (95% CI: 39.59–67.53 and negative predictive value was 83.3% (95% CI: 57.73–95.59. Conclusion: This is the first study from India using a weight gain-based algorithm for prediction of ROP. Overall sensitivity of WINROP algorithm in detecting Type 1 ROP was 90.32%. The overall specificity was 38.46%. Population-specific tweaking of algorithm may improve the result and practical utility for ophthalmologists and neonatologists.

  10. Prostate Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing prostate cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  11. Colorectal Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing colorectal cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  12. Esophageal Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing esophageal cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  13. Bladder Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing bladder cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  14. Lung Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing lung cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  15. Breast Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing breast cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  16. Pancreatic Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing pancreatic cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  17. Ovarian Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing ovarian cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  18. Developmental Dyslexia: Predicting Individual Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Paul A.; Hulme, Charles; Nash, Hannah M.; Gooch, Debbie; Hayiou-Thomas, Emma; Snowling, Margaret J.

    2015-01-01

    Background: Causal theories of dyslexia suggest that it is a heritable disorder, which is the outcome of multiple risk factors. However, whether early screening for dyslexia is viable is not yet known. Methods: The study followed children at high risk of dyslexia from preschool through the early primary years assessing them from age 3 years and 6…

  19. Liver Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing liver cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  20. Testicular Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of testicular cervical cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  1. Cervical Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing cervical cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  2. Multiobjective genetic algorithm approaches to project scheduling under risk

    OpenAIRE

    Kılıç, Murat; Kilic, Murat

    2003-01-01

    In this thesis, project scheduling under risk is chosen as the topic of research. Project scheduling under risk is defined as a biobjective decision problem and is formulated as a 0-1 integer mathematical programming model. In this biobjective formulation, one of the objectives is taken as the expected makespan minimization and the other is taken as the expected cost minimization. As the solution approach to this biobjective formulation genetic algorithm (GA) is chosen. After carefully invest...

  3. Novel Intermode Prediction Algorithm for High Efficiency Video Coding Encoder

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chan-seob Park

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The joint collaborative team on video coding (JCT-VC is developing the next-generation video coding standard which is called high efficiency video coding (HEVC. In the HEVC, there are three units in block structure: coding unit (CU, prediction unit (PU, and transform unit (TU. The CU is the basic unit of region splitting like macroblock (MB. Each CU performs recursive splitting into four blocks with equal size, starting from the tree block. In this paper, we propose a fast CU depth decision algorithm for HEVC technology to reduce its computational complexity. In 2N×2N PU, the proposed method compares the rate-distortion (RD cost and determines the depth using the compared information. Moreover, in order to speed up the encoding time, the efficient merge SKIP detection method is developed additionally based on the contextual mode information of neighboring CUs. Experimental result shows that the proposed algorithm achieves the average time-saving factor of 44.84% in the random access (RA at Main profile configuration with the HEVC test model (HM 10.0 reference software. Compared to HM 10.0 encoder, a small BD-bitrate loss of 0.17% is also observed without significant loss of image quality.

  4. Reliable prediction of adsorption isotherms via genetic algorithm molecular simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    LoftiKatooli, L; Shahsavand, A

    2017-01-01

    Conventional molecular simulation techniques such as grand canonical Monte Carlo (GCMC) strictly rely on purely random search inside the simulation box for predicting the adsorption isotherms. This blind search is usually extremely time demanding for providing a faithful approximation of the real isotherm and in some cases may lead to non-optimal solutions. A novel approach is presented in this article which does not use any of the classical steps of the standard GCMC method, such as displacement, insertation, and removal. The new approach is based on the well-known genetic algorithm to find the optimal configuration for adsorption of any adsorbate on a structured adsorbent under prevailing pressure and temperature. The proposed approach considers the molecular simulation problem as a global optimization challenge. A detailed flow chart of our so-called genetic algorithm molecular simulation (GAMS) method is presented, which is entirely different from traditions molecular simulation approaches. Three real case studies (for adsorption of CO 2 and H 2 over various zeolites) are borrowed from literature to clearly illustrate the superior performances of the proposed method over the standard GCMC technique. For the present method, the average absolute values of percentage errors are around 11% (RHO-H 2 ), 5% (CHA-CO 2 ), and 16% (BEA-CO 2 ), while they were about 70%, 15%, and 40% for the standard GCMC technique, respectively.

  5. Ternary alloy material prediction using genetic algorithm and cluster expansion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, Chong [Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA (United States)

    2015-12-01

    This thesis summarizes our study on the crystal structures prediction of Fe-V-Si system using genetic algorithm and cluster expansion. Our goal is to explore and look for new stable compounds. We started from the current ten known experimental phases, and calculated formation energies of those compounds using density functional theory (DFT) package, namely, VASP. The convex hull was generated based on the DFT calculations of the experimental known phases. Then we did random search on some metal rich (Fe and V) compositions and found that the lowest energy structures were body centered cube (bcc) underlying lattice, under which we did our computational systematic searches using genetic algorithm and cluster expansion. Among hundreds of the searched compositions, thirteen were selected and DFT formation energies were obtained by VASP. The stability checking of those thirteen compounds was done in reference to the experimental convex hull. We found that the composition, 24-8-16, i.e., Fe3VSi2 is a new stable phase and it can be very inspiring to the future experiments.

  6. Fast Quantum Algorithm for Predicting Descriptive Statistics of Stochastic Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams Colin P.

    1999-01-01

    Stochastic processes are used as a modeling tool in several sub-fields of physics, biology, and finance. Analytic understanding of the long term behavior of such processes is only tractable for very simple types of stochastic processes such as Markovian processes. However, in real world applications more complex stochastic processes often arise. In physics, the complicating factor might be nonlinearities; in biology it might be memory effects; and in finance is might be the non-random intentional behavior of participants in a market. In the absence of analytic insight, one is forced to understand these more complex stochastic processes via numerical simulation techniques. In this paper we present a quantum algorithm for performing such simulations. In particular, we show how a quantum algorithm can predict arbitrary descriptive statistics (moments) of N-step stochastic processes in just O(square root of N) time. That is, the quantum complexity is the square root of the classical complexity for performing such simulations. This is a significant speedup in comparison to the current state of the art.

  7. Cardiovascular risk prediction in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dis, van S.J.

    2011-01-01

    Background: In clinical practice, Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) risk prediction functions and charts are used to identify persons at high risk for cardiovascular diseases (CVD), who are considered eligible for drug treatment of elevated blood pressure and serum cholesterol. These

  8. Developing robust arsenic awareness prediction models using machine learning algorithms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Sushant K; Taylor, Robert W; Rahman, Mohammad Mahmudur; Pradhan, Biswajeet

    2018-04-01

    Arsenic awareness plays a vital role in ensuring the sustainability of arsenic mitigation technologies. Thus far, however, few studies have dealt with the sustainability of such technologies and its associated socioeconomic dimensions. As a result, arsenic awareness prediction has not yet been fully conceptualized. Accordingly, this study evaluated arsenic awareness among arsenic-affected communities in rural India, using a structured questionnaire to record socioeconomic, demographic, and other sociobehavioral factors with an eye to assessing their association with and influence on arsenic awareness. First a logistic regression model was applied and its results compared with those produced by six state-of-the-art machine-learning algorithms (Support Vector Machine [SVM], Kernel-SVM, Decision Tree [DT], k-Nearest Neighbor [k-NN], Naïve Bayes [NB], and Random Forests [RF]) as measured by their accuracy at predicting arsenic awareness. Most (63%) of the surveyed population was found to be arsenic-aware. Significant arsenic awareness predictors were divided into three types: (1) socioeconomic factors: caste, education level, and occupation; (2) water and sanitation behavior factors: number of family members involved in water collection, distance traveled and time spent for water collection, places for defecation, and materials used for handwashing after defecation; and (3) social capital and trust factors: presence of anganwadi and people's trust in other community members, NGOs, and private agencies. Moreover, individuals' having higher social network positively contributed to arsenic awareness in the communities. Results indicated that both the SVM and the RF algorithms outperformed at overall prediction of arsenic awareness-a nonlinear classification problem. Lower-caste, less educated, and unemployed members of the population were found to be the most vulnerable, requiring immediate arsenic mitigation. To this end, local social institutions and NGOs could play a

  9. Paroxysmal atrial fibrillation prediction based on HRV analysis and non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm III.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boon, K H; Khalil-Hani, M; Malarvili, M B

    2018-01-01

    This paper presents a method that able to predict the paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (PAF). The method uses shorter heart rate variability (HRV) signals when compared to existing methods, and achieves good prediction accuracy. PAF is a common cardiac arrhythmia that increases the health risk of a patient, and the development of an accurate predictor of the onset of PAF is clinical important because it increases the possibility to electrically stabilize and prevent the onset of atrial arrhythmias with different pacing techniques. We propose a multi-objective optimization algorithm based on the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm III for optimizing the baseline PAF prediction system, that consists of the stages of pre-processing, HRV feature extraction, and support vector machine (SVM) model. The pre-processing stage comprises of heart rate correction, interpolation, and signal detrending. After that, time-domain, frequency-domain, non-linear HRV features are extracted from the pre-processed data in feature extraction stage. Then, these features are used as input to the SVM for predicting the PAF event. The proposed optimization algorithm is used to optimize the parameters and settings of various HRV feature extraction algorithms, select the best feature subsets, and tune the SVM parameters simultaneously for maximum prediction performance. The proposed method achieves an accuracy rate of 87.7%, which significantly outperforms most of the previous works. This accuracy rate is achieved even with the HRV signal length being reduced from the typical 30 min to just 5 min (a reduction of 83%). Furthermore, another significant result is the sensitivity rate, which is considered more important that other performance metrics in this paper, can be improved with the trade-off of lower specificity. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Predictive algorithms for early detection of retinopathy of prematurity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piermarocchi, Stefano; Bini, Silvia; Martini, Ferdinando; Berton, Marianna; Lavini, Anna; Gusson, Elena; Marchini, Giorgio; Padovani, Ezio Maria; Macor, Sara; Pignatto, Silvia; Lanzetta, Paolo; Cattarossi, Luigi; Baraldi, Eugenio; Lago, Paola

    2017-03-01

    To evaluate sensitivity, specificity and the safest cut-offs of three predictive algorithms (WINROP, ROPScore and CHOP ROP) for retinopathy of prematurity (ROP). A retrospective study was conducted in three centres from 2012 to 2014; 445 preterms with gestational age (GA) ≤ 30 weeks and/or birthweight (BW) ≤ 1500 g, and additional unstable cases, were included. No-ROP, mild and type 1 ROP were categorized. The algorithms were analysed for infants with all parameters (GA, BW, weight gain, oxygen therapy, blood transfusion) needed for calculation (399 babies). Retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) was identified in both eyes in 116 patients (26.1%), and 44 (9.9%) had type 1 ROP. Gestational age and BW were significantly lower in ROP group compared with no-ROP subjects (GA: 26.7 ± 2.2 and 30.2 ± 1.9, respectively, p < 0.0001; BW: 839.8 ± 287.0 and 1288.1 ± 321.5 g, respectively, p = 0.0016). Customized alarms of ROPScore and CHOP ROP correctly identified all infants having any ROP or type 1 ROP. WINROP missed 19 cases of ROP, including three type 1 ROP. ROPScore and CHOP ROP provided the best performances with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the detection of severe ROP of 0.93 (95% CI, 0.90-0.96, and 95% CI, 0.89-0.96, respectively), and WINROP obtained 0.83 (95% CI, 0.77-0.87). Median time from alarm to treatment was 11.1, 5.1 and 9.1 weeks, for WINROP, ROPScore and CHOP ROP, respectively. ROPScore and CHOP ROP showed 100% sensitivity to identify sight-threatening ROP. Predictive algorithms are a reliable tool for early identification of infants requiring referral to an ophthalmologist, for reorganizing resources and reducing stressful procedures to preterm babies. © 2016 Acta Ophthalmologica Scandinavica Foundation. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  11. Risk adjustment model of credit life insurance using a genetic algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saputra, A.; Sukono; Rusyaman, E.

    2018-03-01

    In managing the risk of credit life insurance, insurance company should acknowledge the character of the risks to predict future losses. Risk characteristics can be learned in a claim distribution model. There are two standard approaches in designing the distribution model of claims over the insurance period i.e, collective risk model and individual risk model. In the collective risk model, the claim arises when risk occurs is called individual claim, accumulation of individual claim during a period of insurance is called an aggregate claim. The aggregate claim model may be formed by large model and a number of individual claims. How the measurement of insurance risk with the premium model approach and whether this approach is appropriate for estimating the potential losses occur in the future. In order to solve the problem Genetic Algorithm with Roulette Wheel Selection is used.

  12. Prediction of eyespot infection risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Váòová

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The objective of the study was to design a prediction model for eyespot (Tapesia yallundae infection based on climatic factors (temperature, precipitation, air humidity. Data from experiment years 1994-2002 were used to study correlations between the eyespot infection index and individual weather characteristics. The model of prediction was constructed using multiple regression when a separate parameter is assigned to each factor, i.e. the frequency of days with optimum temperatures, humidity, and precipitation. The correlation between relative air humidity and precipitation and the infection index is significant.

  13. Advanced Emergency Braking Control Based on a Nonlinear Model Predictive Algorithm for Intelligent Vehicles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ronghui Zhang

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Focusing on safety, comfort and with an overall aim of the comprehensive improvement of a vision-based intelligent vehicle, a novel Advanced Emergency Braking System (AEBS is proposed based on Nonlinear Model Predictive Algorithm. Considering the nonlinearities of vehicle dynamics, a vision-based longitudinal vehicle dynamics model is established. On account of the nonlinear coupling characteristics of the driver, surroundings, and vehicle itself, a hierarchical control structure is proposed to decouple and coordinate the system. To avoid or reduce the collision risk between the intelligent vehicle and collision objects, a coordinated cost function of tracking safety, comfort, and fuel economy is formulated. Based on the terminal constraints of stable tracking, a multi-objective optimization controller is proposed using the theory of non-linear model predictive control. To quickly and precisely track control target in a finite time, an electronic brake controller for AEBS is designed based on the Nonsingular Fast Terminal Sliding Mode (NFTSM control theory. To validate the performance and advantages of the proposed algorithm, simulations are implemented. According to the simulation results, the proposed algorithm has better integrated performance in reducing the collision risk and improving the driving comfort and fuel economy of the smart car compared with the existing single AEBS.

  14. A conservative fully implicit algorithm for predicting slug flows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krasnopolsky, Boris I.; Lukyanov, Alexander A.

    2018-02-01

    An accurate and predictive modelling of slug flows is required by many industries (e.g., oil and gas, nuclear engineering, chemical engineering) to prevent undesired events potentially leading to serious environmental accidents. For example, the hydrodynamic and terrain-induced slugging leads to unwanted unsteady flow conditions. This demands the development of fast and robust numerical techniques for predicting slug flows. The presented in this paper study proposes a multi-fluid model and its implementation method accounting for phase appearance and disappearance. The numerical modelling of phase appearance and disappearance presents a complex numerical challenge for all multi-component and multi-fluid models. Numerical challenges arise from the singular systems of equations when some phases are absent and from the solution discontinuity when some phases appear or disappear. This paper provides a flexible and robust solution to these issues. A fully implicit formulation described in this work enables to efficiently solve governing fluid flow equations. The proposed numerical method provides a modelling capability of phase appearance and disappearance processes, which is based on switching procedure between various sets of governing equations. These sets of equations are constructed using information about the number of phases present in the computational domain. The proposed scheme does not require an explicit truncation of solutions leading to a conservative scheme for mass and linear momentum. A transient two-fluid model is used to verify and validate the proposed algorithm for conditions of hydrodynamic and terrain-induced slug flow regimes. The developed modelling capabilities allow to predict all the major features of the experimental data, and are in a good quantitative agreement with them.

  15. Standard cardiovascular disease risk algorithms underestimate the risk of cardiovascular disease in schizophrenia: evidence from a national primary care database.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLean, Gary; Martin, Julie Langan; Martin, Daniel J; Guthrie, Bruce; Mercer, Stewart W; Smith, Daniel J

    2014-10-01

    Schizophrenia is associated with increased cardiovascular mortality. Although cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction algorithms are widely in the general population, their utility for patients with schizophrenia is unknown. A primary care dataset was used to compare CVD risk scores (Joint British Societies (JBS) score), cardiovascular risk factors, rates of pre-existing CVD and age of first diagnosis of CVD for schizophrenia (n=1997) relative to population controls (n=215,165). Pre-existing rates of CVD and the recording of risk factors for those without CVD were higher in the schizophrenia cohort in the younger age groups, for both genders. Those with schizophrenia were more likely to have a first diagnosis of CVD at a younger age, with nearly half of men with schizophrenia plus CVD diagnosed under the age of 55 (schizophrenia men 46.1% vs. control men 34.8%, pschizophrenia women 28.9% vs. control women 23.8%, prisk factors within the schizophrenia group, only a very small percentage (3.2% of men and 7.5% of women) of those with schizophrenia under age 55 were correctly identified as high risk for CVD according to the JBS risk algorithm. The JBS2 risk score identified only a small proportion of individuals with schizophrenia under the age of 55 as being at high risk of CVD, despite high rates of risk factors and high rates of first diagnosis of CVD within this age group. The validity of CVD risk prediction algorithms for schizophrenia needs further research. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Automated Assessment of Existing Patient's Revised Cardiac Risk Index Using Algorithmic Software.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hofer, Ira S; Cheng, Drew; Grogan, Tristan; Fujimoto, Yohei; Yamada, Takashige; Beck, Lauren; Cannesson, Maxime; Mahajan, Aman

    2018-05-25

    Previous work in the field of medical informatics has shown that rules-based algorithms can be created to identify patients with various medical conditions; however, these techniques have not been compared to actual clinician notes nor has the ability to predict complications been tested. We hypothesize that a rules-based algorithm can successfully identify patients with the diseases in the Revised Cardiac Risk Index (RCRI). Patients undergoing surgery at the University of California, Los Angeles Health System between April 1, 2013 and July 1, 2016 and who had at least 2 previous office visits were included. For each disease in the RCRI except renal failure-congestive heart failure, ischemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, and diabetes mellitus-diagnosis algorithms were created based on diagnostic and standard clinical treatment criteria. For each disease state, the prevalence of the disease as determined by the algorithm, International Classification of Disease (ICD) code, and anesthesiologist's preoperative note were determined. Additionally, 400 American Society of Anesthesiologists classes III and IV cases were randomly chosen for manual review by an anesthesiologist. The sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve were determined using the manual review as a gold standard. Last, the ability of the RCRI as calculated by each of the methods to predict in-hospital mortality was determined, and the time necessary to run the algorithms was calculated. A total of 64,151 patients met inclusion criteria for the study. In general, the incidence of definite or likely disease determined by the algorithms was higher than that detected by the anesthesiologist. Additionally, in all disease states, the prevalence of disease was always lowest for the ICD codes, followed by the preoperative note, followed by the algorithms. In the subset of patients for whom the

  17. Verification and improvement of predictive algorithms for radionuclide migration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carnahan, C.L.; Miller, C.W.; Remer, J.S.

    1984-01-01

    This research addresses issues relevant to numerical simulation and prediction of migration of radionuclides in the environment of nuclear waste repositories. Specific issues investigated are the adequacy of current numerical codes in simulating geochemical interactions affecting radionuclide migration, the level of complexity required in chemical algorithms of transport models, and the validity of the constant-k/sub D/ concept in chemical transport modeling. An initial survey of the literature led to the conclusion that existing numerical codes did not encompass the full range of chemical and physical phenomena influential in radionuclide migration. Studies of chemical algorithms have been conducted within the framework of a one-dimensional numerical code that simulates the transport of chemically reacting solutes in a saturated porous medium. The code treats transport by dispersion/diffusion and advection, and equilibrium-controlled proceses of interphase mass transfer, complexation in the aqueous phase, pH variation, and precipitation/dissolution of secondary solids. Irreversible, time-dependent dissolution of solid phases during transport can be treated. Mass action, transport, and sorptive site constraint equations are expressed in differential/algebraic form and are solved simultaneously. Simulations using the code show that use of the constant-k/sub D/ concept can produce unreliable results in geochemical transport modeling. Applications to a field test and laboratory analogs of a nuclear waste repository indicate that a thermodynamically based simulator of chemical transport can successfully mimic real processes provided that operative chemical mechanisms and associated data have been correctly identified and measured, and have been incorporated in the simulator. 17 references, 10 figures

  18. Research on wind field algorithm of wind lidar based on BP neural network and grey prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yong; Chen, Chun-Li; Luo, Xiong; Zhang, Yan; Yang, Ze-hou; Zhou, Jie; Shi, Xiao-ding; Wang, Lei

    2018-01-01

    This paper uses the BP neural network and grey algorithm to forecast and study radar wind field. In order to reduce the residual error in the wind field prediction which uses BP neural network and grey algorithm, calculating the minimum value of residual error function, adopting the residuals of the gray algorithm trained by BP neural network, using the trained network model to forecast the residual sequence, using the predicted residual error sequence to modify the forecast sequence of the grey algorithm. The test data show that using the grey algorithm modified by BP neural network can effectively reduce the residual value and improve the prediction precision.

  19. Evaluation of machine learning algorithms for improved risk assessment for Down's syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koivu, Aki; Korpimäki, Teemu; Kivelä, Petri; Pahikkala, Tapio; Sairanen, Mikko

    2018-05-04

    Prenatal screening generates a great amount of data that is used for predicting risk of various disorders. Prenatal risk assessment is based on multiple clinical variables and overall performance is defined by how well the risk algorithm is optimized for the population in question. This article evaluates machine learning algorithms to improve performance of first trimester screening of Down syndrome. Machine learning algorithms pose an adaptive alternative to develop better risk assessment models using the existing clinical variables. Two real-world data sets were used to experiment with multiple classification algorithms. Implemented models were tested with a third, real-world, data set and performance was compared to a predicate method, a commercial risk assessment software. Best performing deep neural network model gave an area under the curve of 0.96 and detection rate of 78% with 1% false positive rate with the test data. Support vector machine model gave area under the curve of 0.95 and detection rate of 61% with 1% false positive rate with the same test data. When compared with the predicate method, the best support vector machine model was slightly inferior, but an optimized deep neural network model was able to give higher detection rates with same false positive rate or similar detection rate but with markedly lower false positive rate. This finding could further improve the first trimester screening for Down syndrome, by using existing clinical variables and a large training data derived from a specific population. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Application of XGBoost algorithm in hourly PM2.5 concentration prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Bingyue

    2018-02-01

    In view of prediction techniques of hourly PM2.5 concentration in China, this paper applied the XGBoost(Extreme Gradient Boosting) algorithm to predict hourly PM2.5 concentration. The monitoring data of air quality in Tianjin city was analyzed by using XGBoost algorithm. The prediction performance of the XGBoost method is evaluated by comparing observed and predicted PM2.5 concentration using three measures of forecast accuracy. The XGBoost method is also compared with the random forest algorithm, multiple linear regression, decision tree regression and support vector machines for regression models using computational results. The results demonstrate that the XGBoost algorithm outperforms other data mining methods.

  1. Updating risk prediction tools: a case study in prostate cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ankerst, Donna P; Koniarski, Tim; Liang, Yuanyuan; Leach, Robin J; Feng, Ziding; Sanda, Martin G; Partin, Alan W; Chan, Daniel W; Kagan, Jacob; Sokoll, Lori; Wei, John T; Thompson, Ian M

    2012-01-01

    Online risk prediction tools for common cancers are now easily accessible and widely used by patients and doctors for informed decision-making concerning screening and diagnosis. A practical problem is as cancer research moves forward and new biomarkers and risk factors are discovered, there is a need to update the risk algorithms to include them. Typically, the new markers and risk factors cannot be retrospectively measured on the same study participants used to develop the original prediction tool, necessitating the merging of a separate study of different participants, which may be much smaller in sample size and of a different design. Validation of the updated tool on a third independent data set is warranted before the updated tool can go online. This article reports on the application of Bayes rule for updating risk prediction tools to include a set of biomarkers measured in an external study to the original study used to develop the risk prediction tool. The procedure is illustrated in the context of updating the online Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial Risk Calculator to incorporate the new markers %freePSA and [-2]proPSA measured on an external case-control study performed in Texas, U.S.. Recent state-of-the art methods in validation of risk prediction tools and evaluation of the improvement of updated to original tools are implemented using an external validation set provided by the U.S. Early Detection Research Network. Copyright © 2012 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  2. Comparison of predictive performance of data mining algorithms in predicting body weight in Mengali rams of Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Senol Celik

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT The present study aimed at comparing predictive performance of some data mining algorithms (CART, CHAID, Exhaustive CHAID, MARS, MLP, and RBF in biometrical data of Mengali rams. To compare the predictive capability of the algorithms, the biometrical data regarding body (body length, withers height, and heart girth and testicular (testicular length, scrotal length, and scrotal circumference measurements of Mengali rams in predicting live body weight were evaluated by most goodness of fit criteria. In addition, age was considered as a continuous independent variable. In this context, MARS data mining algorithm was used for the first time to predict body weight in two forms, without (MARS_1 and with interaction (MARS_2 terms. The superiority order in the predictive accuracy of the algorithms was found as CART > CHAID ≈ Exhaustive CHAID > MARS_2 > MARS_1 > RBF > MLP. Moreover, all tested algorithms provided a strong predictive accuracy for estimating body weight. However, MARS is the only algorithm that generated a prediction equation for body weight. Therefore, it is hoped that the available results might present a valuable contribution in terms of predicting body weight and describing the relationship between the body weight and body and testicular measurements in revealing breed standards and the conservation of indigenous gene sources for Mengali sheep breeding. Therefore, it will be possible to perform more profitable and productive sheep production. Use of data mining algorithms is useful for revealing the relationship between body weight and testicular traits in describing breed standards of Mengali sheep.

  3. An Automated Defect Prediction Framework using Genetic Algorithms: A Validation of Empirical Studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Murillo-Morera

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Today, it is common for software projects to collect measurement data through development processes. With these data, defect prediction software can try to estimate the defect proneness of a software module, with the objective of assisting and guiding software practitioners. With timely and accurate defect predictions, practitioners can focus their limited testing resources on higher risk areas. This paper reports the results of three empirical studies that uses an automated genetic defect prediction framework. This framework generates and compares different learning schemes (preprocessing + attribute selection + learning algorithms and selects the best one using a genetic algorithm, with the objective to estimate the defect proneness of a software module. The first empirical study is a performance comparison of our framework with the most important framework of the literature. The second empirical study is a performance and runtime comparison between our framework and an exhaustive framework. The third empirical study is a sensitivity analysis. The last empirical study, is our main contribution in this paper. Performance of the software development defect prediction models (using AUC, Area Under the Curve was validated using NASA-MDP and PROMISE data sets. Seventeen data sets from NASA-MDP (13 and PROMISE (4 projects were analyzed running a NxM-fold cross-validation. A genetic algorithm was used to select the components of the learning schemes automatically, and to assess and report the results. Our results reported similar performance between frameworks. Our framework reported better runtime than exhaustive framework. Finally, we reported the best configuration according to sensitivity analysis.

  4. Development and validation of a prediction algorithm for the onset of common mental disorders in a working population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandez, Ana; Salvador-Carulla, Luis; Choi, Isabella; Calvo, Rafael; Harvey, Samuel B; Glozier, Nicholas

    2018-01-01

    Common mental disorders are the most common reason for long-term sickness absence in most developed countries. Prediction algorithms for the onset of common mental disorders may help target indicated work-based prevention interventions. We aimed to develop and validate a risk algorithm to predict the onset of common mental disorders at 12 months in a working population. We conducted a secondary analysis of the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia Survey, a longitudinal, nationally representative household panel in Australia. Data from the 6189 working participants who did not meet the criteria for a common mental disorders at baseline were non-randomly split into training and validation databases, based on state of residence. Common mental disorders were assessed with the mental component score of 36-Item Short Form Health Survey questionnaire (score ⩽45). Risk algorithms were constructed following recommendations made by the Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Prevention Or Diagnosis statement. Different risk factors were identified among women and men for the final risk algorithms. In the training data, the model for women had a C-index of 0.73 and effect size (Hedges' g) of 0.91. In men, the C-index was 0.76 and the effect size was 1.06. In the validation data, the C-index was 0.66 for women and 0.73 for men, with positive predictive values of 0.28 and 0.26, respectively Conclusion: It is possible to develop an algorithm with good discrimination for the onset identifying overall and modifiable risks of common mental disorders among working men. Such models have the potential to change the way that prevention of common mental disorders at the workplace is conducted, but different models may be required for women.

  5. An improved simplified model predictive control algorithm and its application to a continuous fermenter

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. H. Kwong

    2000-06-01

    Full Text Available The development of a new simplified model predictive control algorithm has been proposed in this work. The algorithm is developed within the framework of internal model control, and it is easy to understanding and implement. Simulation results for a continuous fermenter, which show that the proposed control algorithm is robust for moderate variations in plant parameters, are presented. The algorithm shows a good performance for setpoint tracking.

  6. Risk terrain modeling predicts child maltreatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daley, Dyann; Bachmann, Michael; Bachmann, Brittany A; Pedigo, Christian; Bui, Minh-Thuy; Coffman, Jamye

    2016-12-01

    As indicated by research on the long-term effects of adverse childhood experiences (ACEs), maltreatment has far-reaching consequences for affected children. Effective prevention measures have been elusive, partly due to difficulty in identifying vulnerable children before they are harmed. This study employs Risk Terrain Modeling (RTM), an analysis of the cumulative effect of environmental factors thought to be conducive for child maltreatment, to create a highly accurate prediction model for future substantiated child maltreatment cases in the City of Fort Worth, Texas. The model is superior to commonly used hotspot predictions and more beneficial in aiding prevention efforts in a number of ways: 1) it identifies the highest risk areas for future instances of child maltreatment with improved precision and accuracy; 2) it aids the prioritization of risk-mitigating efforts by informing about the relative importance of the most significant contributing risk factors; 3) since predictions are modeled as a function of easily obtainable data, practitioners do not have to undergo the difficult process of obtaining official child maltreatment data to apply it; 4) the inclusion of a multitude of environmental risk factors creates a more robust model with higher predictive validity; and, 5) the model does not rely on a retrospective examination of past instances of child maltreatment, but adapts predictions to changing environmental conditions. The present study introduces and examines the predictive power of this new tool to aid prevention efforts seeking to improve the safety, health, and wellbeing of vulnerable children. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  7. Case-Mix for Performance Management: A Risk Algorithm Based on ICD-10-CM.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Jian; Moran, Eileen; Almenoff, Peter L

    2018-06-01

    Accurate risk adjustment is the key to a reliable comparison of cost and quality performance among providers and hospitals. However, the existing case-mix algorithms based on age, sex, and diagnoses can only explain up to 50% of the cost variation. More accurate risk adjustment is desired for provider performance assessment and improvement. To develop a case-mix algorithm that hospitals and payers can use to measure and compare cost and quality performance of their providers. All 6,048,895 patients with valid diagnoses and cost recorded in the US Veterans health care system in fiscal year 2016 were included in this study. The dependent variable was total cost at the patient level, and the explanatory variables were age, sex, and comorbidities represented by 762 clinically homogeneous groups, which were created by expanding the 283 categories from Clinical Classifications Software based on ICD-10-CM codes. The split-sample method was used to assess model overfitting and coefficient stability. The predictive power of the algorithms was ascertained by comparing the R, mean absolute percentage error, root mean square error, predictive ratios, and c-statistics. The expansion of the Clinical Classifications Software categories resulted in higher predictive power. The R reached 0.72 and 0.52 for the transformed and raw scale cost, respectively. The case-mix algorithm we developed based on age, sex, and diagnoses outperformed the existing case-mix models reported in the literature. The method developed in this study can be used by other health systems to produce tailored risk models for their specific purpose.

  8. Subclinical organ damage and cardiovascular risk prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sehestedt, Thomas; Olsen, Michael H

    2010-01-01

    Traditional cardiovascular risk factors have poor prognostic value for individuals and screening for subclinical organ damage has been recommended in hypertension in recent guidelines. The aim of this review was to investigate the clinical impact of the additive prognostic information provided...... by measuring subclinical organ damage. We have (i) reviewed recent studies linking markers of subclinical organ damage in the heart, blood vessels and kidney to cardiovascular risk; (ii) discussed the evidence for improvement in cardiovascular risk prediction using markers of subclinical organ damage; (iii...

  9. An enhanced deterministic K-Means clustering algorithm for cancer subtype prediction from gene expression data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nidheesh, N; Abdul Nazeer, K A; Ameer, P M

    2017-12-01

    Clustering algorithms with steps involving randomness usually give different results on different executions for the same dataset. This non-deterministic nature of algorithms such as the K-Means clustering algorithm limits their applicability in areas such as cancer subtype prediction using gene expression data. It is hard to sensibly compare the results of such algorithms with those of other algorithms. The non-deterministic nature of K-Means is due to its random selection of data points as initial centroids. We propose an improved, density based version of K-Means, which involves a novel and systematic method for selecting initial centroids. The key idea of the algorithm is to select data points which belong to dense regions and which are adequately separated in feature space as the initial centroids. We compared the proposed algorithm to a set of eleven widely used single clustering algorithms and a prominent ensemble clustering algorithm which is being used for cancer data classification, based on the performances on a set of datasets comprising ten cancer gene expression datasets. The proposed algorithm has shown better overall performance than the others. There is a pressing need in the Biomedical domain for simple, easy-to-use and more accurate Machine Learning tools for cancer subtype prediction. The proposed algorithm is simple, easy-to-use and gives stable results. Moreover, it provides comparatively better predictions of cancer subtypes from gene expression data. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. CAT-PUMA: CME Arrival Time Prediction Using Machine learning Algorithms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jiajia; Ye, Yudong; Shen, Chenglong; Wang, Yuming; Erdélyi, Robert

    2018-04-01

    CAT-PUMA (CME Arrival Time Prediction Using Machine learning Algorithms) quickly and accurately predicts the arrival of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) of CME arrival time. The software was trained via detailed analysis of CME features and solar wind parameters using 182 previously observed geo-effective partial-/full-halo CMEs and uses algorithms of the Support Vector Machine (SVM) to make its predictions, which can be made within minutes of providing the necessary input parameters of a CME.

  11. Research on Demand Prediction of Fresh Food Supply Chain Based on Improved Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm

    OpenAIRE

    He Wang

    2015-01-01

    Demand prediction of supply chain is an important content and the first premise in supply management of different enterprises and has become one of the difficulties and hot research fields for the researchers related. The paper takes fresh food demand prediction for example and presents a new algorithm for predicting demand of fresh food supply chain. First, the working principle and the root causes of the defects of particle swarm optimization algorithm are analyzed in the study; Second, the...

  12. Comparison of four Adaboost algorithm based artificial neural networks in wind speed predictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, Hui; Tian, Hong-qi; Li, Yan-fei; Zhang, Lei

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Four hybrid algorithms are proposed for the wind speed decomposition. • Adaboost algorithm is adopted to provide a hybrid training framework. • MLP neural networks are built to do the forecasting computation. • Four important network training algorithms are included in the MLP networks. • All the proposed hybrid algorithms are suitable for the wind speed predictions. - Abstract: The technology of wind speed prediction is important to guarantee the safety of wind power utilization. In this paper, four different hybrid methods are proposed for the high-precision multi-step wind speed predictions based on the Adaboost (Adaptive Boosting) algorithm and the MLP (Multilayer Perceptron) neural networks. In the hybrid Adaboost–MLP forecasting architecture, four important algorithms are adopted for the training and modeling of the MLP neural networks, including GD-ALR-BP algorithm, GDM-ALR-BP algorithm, CG-BP-FR algorithm and BFGS algorithm. The aim of the study is to investigate the promoted forecasting percentages of the MLP neural networks by the Adaboost algorithm’ optimization under various training algorithms. The hybrid models in the performance comparison include Adaboost–GD-ALR-BP–MLP, Adaboost–GDM-ALR-BP–MLP, Adaboost–CG-BP-FR–MLP, Adaboost–BFGS–MLP, GD-ALR-BP–MLP, GDM-ALR-BP–MLP, CG-BP-FR–MLP and BFGS–MLP. Two experimental results show that: (1) the proposed hybrid Adaboost–MLP forecasting architecture is effective for the wind speed predictions; (2) the Adaboost algorithm has promoted the forecasting performance of the MLP neural networks considerably; (3) among the proposed Adaboost–MLP forecasting models, the Adaboost–CG-BP-FR–MLP model has the best performance; and (4) the improved percentages of the MLP neural networks by the Adaboost algorithm decrease step by step with the following sequence of training algorithms as: GD-ALR-BP, GDM-ALR-BP, CG-BP-FR and BFGS

  13. Algorithms and Methods for High-Performance Model Predictive Control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frison, Gianluca

    routines employed in the numerical tests. The main focus of this thesis is on linear MPC problems. In this thesis, both the algorithms and their implementation are equally important. About the implementation, a novel implementation strategy for the dense linear algebra routines in embedded optimization...... is proposed, aiming at improving the computational performance in case of small matrices. About the algorithms, they are built on top of the proposed linear algebra, and they are tailored to exploit the high-level structure of the MPC problems, with special care on reducing the computational complexity....

  14. Prediction of customer behaviour analysis using classification algorithms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raju, Siva Subramanian; Dhandayudam, Prabha

    2018-04-01

    Customer Relationship management plays a crucial role in analyzing of customer behavior patterns and their values with an enterprise. Analyzing of customer data can be efficient performed using various data mining techniques, with the goal of developing business strategies and to enhance the business. In this paper, three classification models (NB, J48, and MLPNN) are studied and evaluated for our experimental purpose. The performance measures of the three classifications are compared using three different parameters (accuracy, sensitivity, specificity) and experimental results expose J48 algorithm has better accuracy with compare to NB and MLPNN algorithm.

  15. Algorithms

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    polynomial) division have been found in Vedic Mathematics which are dated much before Euclid's algorithm. A programming language Is used to describe an algorithm for execution on a computer. An algorithm expressed using a programming.

  16. Increasing Prediction the Original Final Year Project of Student Using Genetic Algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saragih, Rijois Iboy Erwin; Turnip, Mardi; Sitanggang, Delima; Aritonang, Mendarissan; Harianja, Eva

    2018-04-01

    Final year project is very important forgraduation study of a student. Unfortunately, many students are not seriouslydidtheir final projects. Many of studentsask for someone to do it for them. In this paper, an application of genetic algorithms to predict the original final year project of a studentis proposed. In the simulation, the data of the final project for the last 5 years is collected. The genetic algorithm has several operators namely population, selection, crossover, and mutation. The result suggest that genetic algorithm can do better prediction than other comparable model. Experimental results of predicting showed that 70% was more accurate than the previous researched.

  17. An Improved User Selection Algorithm in Multiuser MIMO Broadcast with Channel Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Min, Zhi; Ohtsuki, Tomoaki

    In multiuser MIMO-BC (Multiple-Input Multiple-Output Broadcasting) systems, user selection is important to achieve multiuser diversity. The optimal user selection algorithm is to try all the combinations of users to find the user group that can achieve the multiuser diversity. Unfortunately, the high calculation cost of the optimal algorithm prevents its implementation. Thus, instead of the optimal algorithm, some suboptimal user selection algorithms were proposed based on semiorthogonality of user channel vectors. The purpose of this paper is to achieve multiuser diversity with a small amount of calculation. For this purpose, we propose a user selection algorithm that can improve the orthogonality of a selected user group. We also apply a channel prediction technique to a MIMO-BC system to get more accurate channel information at the transmitter. Simulation results show that the channel prediction can improve the accuracy of channel information for user selections, and the proposed user selection algorithm achieves higher sum rate capacity than the SUS (Semiorthogonal User Selection) algorithm. Also we discuss the setting of the algorithm threshold. As the result of a discussion on the calculation complexity, which uses the number of complex multiplications as the parameter, the proposed algorithm is shown to have a calculation complexity almost equal to that of the SUS algorithm, and they are much lower than that of the optimal user selection algorithm.

  18. Risk prediction of hepatotoxicity in paracetamol poisoning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Anselm; Graudins, Andis

    2017-09-01

    Paracetamol (acetaminophen) poisoning is the most common cause of acute liver failure in the developed world. A paracetamol treatment nomogram has been used for over four decades to help determine whether patients will develop hepatotoxicity without acetylcysteine treatment, and thus indicates those needing treatment. Despite this, a small proportion of patients still develop hepatotoxicity. More accurate risk predictors would be useful to increase the early detection of patients with the potential to develop hepatotoxicity despite acetylcysteine treatment. Similarly, there would be benefit in early identification of those with a low likelihood of developing hepatotoxicity, as this group may be safely treated with an abbreviated acetylcysteine regimen. To review the current literature related to risk prediction tools that can be used to identify patients at increased risk of hepatotoxicity. A systematic literature review was conducted using the search terms: "paracetamol" OR "acetaminophen" AND "overdose" OR "toxicity" OR "risk prediction rules" OR "hepatotoxicity" OR "psi parameter" OR "multiplication product" OR "half-life" OR "prothrombin time" OR "AST/ALT (aspartate transaminase/alanine transaminase)" OR "dose" OR "biomarkers" OR "nomogram". The search was limited to human studies without language restrictions, of Medline (1946 to May 2016), PubMed and EMBASE. Original articles pertaining to the theme were identified from January 1974 to May 2016. Of the 13,975 articles identified, 60 were relevant to the review. Paracetamol treatment nomograms: Paracetamol treatment nomograms have been used for decades to help decide the need for acetylcysteine, but rarely used to determine the risk of hepatotoxicity with treatment. Reported paracetamol dose and concentration: A dose ingestion >12 g or serum paracetamol concentration above the treatment thresholds on the paracetamol nomogram are associated with a greater risk of hepatotoxicity. Paracetamol elimination half

  19. Verification and improvement of predictive algorithms for radionuclide migration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carnahan, C.L.; Miller, C.W.; Remer, J.S.

    1984-01-01

    This research investigated the adequacy of current numerical codes in simulating geochemical interactions affecting radionuclide migration, the level of complexity required in chemical algorithms of transport models, and the validity of the constant-k/sub D/ concept in chemical transport modeling. An initial survey of the literature led to the conclusion that existing numerical codes did not encompass the full range of chemical and physical phenomena influential in radionuclide migration

  20. Prediction and Analysis of students Behavior using BARC Algorithm

    OpenAIRE

    M.Sindhuja; Dr.S.Rajalakshmi; S.M.Nandagopal

    2013-01-01

    Educational Data mining is a recent trends where data mining methods are experimented for the improvement of student performance in academics. The work describes the mining of higher education students’ related attributes such as behavior, attitude and relationship. The data were collected from a higher education institution in terms of the mentioned attributes. The proposed work explored Behavior Attitude Relationship Clustering (BARC) Algorithm, which showed the improvement in students’ per...

  1. CN earthquake prediction algorithm and the monitoring of the future strong Vrancea events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moldoveanu, C.L.; Radulian, M.; Novikova, O.V.; Panza, G.F.

    2002-01-01

    The strong earthquakes originating at intermediate-depth in the Vrancea region (located in the SE corner of the highly bent Carpathian arc) represent one of the most important natural disasters able to induce heavy effects (high tool of casualties and extensive damage) in the Romanian territory. The occurrence of these earthquakes is irregular, but not infrequent. Their effects are felt over a large territory, from Central Europe to Moscow and from Greece to Scandinavia. The largest cultural and economical center exposed to the seismic risk due to the Vrancea earthquakes is Bucharest. This metropolitan area (230 km 2 wide) is characterized by the presence of 2.5 million inhabitants (10% of the country population) and by a considerable number of high-risk structures and infrastructures. The best way to face strong earthquakes is to mitigate the seismic risk by using the two possible complementary approaches represented by (a) the antiseismic design of structures and infrastructures (able to support strong earthquakes without significant damage), and (b) the strong earthquake prediction (in terms of alarm intervals declared for long, intermediate or short-term space-and time-windows). The intermediate term medium-range earthquake prediction represents the most realistic target to be reached at the present state of knowledge. The alarm declared in this case extends over a time window of about one year or more, and a space window of a few hundreds of kilometers. In the case of Vrancea events the spatial uncertainty is much less, being of about 100 km. The main measures for the mitigation of the seismic risk allowed by the intermediate-term medium-range prediction are: (a) verification of the buildings and infrastructures stability and reinforcement measures when required, (b) elaboration of emergency plans of action, (c) schedule of the main actions required in order to restore the normality of the social and economical life after the earthquake. The paper presents the

  2. Shoulder dystocia: risk factors, predictability, and preventability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehta, Shobha H; Sokol, Robert J

    2014-06-01

    Shoulder dystocia remains an unpredictable obstetric emergency, striking fear in the hearts of obstetricians both novice and experienced. While outcomes that lead to permanent injury are rare, almost all obstetricians with enough years of practice have participated in a birth with a severe shoulder dystocia and are at least aware of cases that have resulted in significant neurologic injury or even neonatal death. This is despite many years of research trying to understand the risk factors associated with it, all in an attempt primarily to characterize when the risk is high enough to avoid vaginal delivery altogether and prevent a shoulder dystocia, whose attendant morbidities are estimated to be at a rate as high as 16-48%. The study of shoulder dystocia remains challenging due to its generally retrospective nature, as well as dependence on proper identification and documentation. As a result, the prediction of shoulder dystocia remains elusive, and the cost of trying to prevent one by performing a cesarean delivery remains high. While ultimately it is the injury that is the key concern, rather than the shoulder dystocia itself, it is in the presence of an identified shoulder dystocia that occurrence of injury is most common. The majority of shoulder dystocia cases occur without major risk factors. Moreover, even the best antenatal predictors have a low positive predictive value. Shoulder dystocia therefore cannot be reliably predicted, and the only preventative measure is cesarean delivery. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Novel prediction- and subblock-based algorithm for fractal image compression

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chung, K.-L.; Hsu, C.-H.

    2006-01-01

    Fractal encoding is the most consuming part in fractal image compression. In this paper, a novel two-phase prediction- and subblock-based fractal encoding algorithm is presented. Initially the original gray image is partitioned into a set of variable-size blocks according to the S-tree- and interpolation-based decomposition principle. In the first phase, each current block of variable-size range block tries to find the best matched domain block based on the proposed prediction-based search strategy which utilizes the relevant neighboring variable-size domain blocks. The first phase leads to a significant computation-saving effect. If the domain block found within the predicted search space is unacceptable, in the second phase, a subblock strategy is employed to partition the current variable-size range block into smaller blocks to improve the image quality. Experimental results show that our proposed prediction- and subblock-based fractal encoding algorithm outperforms the conventional full search algorithm and the recently published spatial-correlation-based algorithm by Truong et al. in terms of encoding time and image quality. In addition, the performance comparison among our proposed algorithm and the other two algorithms, the no search-based algorithm and the quadtree-based algorithm, are also investigated

  4. A Decomposition Algorithm for Mean-Variance Economic Model Predictive Control of Stochastic Linear Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sokoler, Leo Emil; Dammann, Bernd; Madsen, Henrik

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a decomposition algorithm for solving the optimal control problem (OCP) that arises in Mean-Variance Economic Model Predictive Control of stochastic linear systems. The algorithm applies the alternating direction method of multipliers to a reformulation of the OCP...

  5. Gas Emission Prediction Model of Coal Mine Based on CSBP Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiong Yan

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In view of the nonlinear characteristics of gas emission in a coal working face, a prediction method is proposed based on cuckoo search algorithm optimized BP neural network (CSBP. In the CSBP algorithm, the cuckoo search is adopted to optimize weight and threshold parameters of BP network, and obtains the global optimal solutions. Furthermore, the twelve main affecting factors of the gas emission in the coal working face are taken as input vectors of CSBP algorithm, the gas emission is acted as output vector, and then the prediction model of BP neural network with optimal parameters is established. The results show that the CSBP algorithm has batter generalization ability and higher prediction accuracy, and can be utilized effectively in the prediction of coal mine gas emission.

  6. New methods for fall risk prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ejupi, Andreas; Lord, Stephen R; Delbaere, Kim

    2014-09-01

    Accidental falls are the leading cause of injury-related death and hospitalization in old age, with over one-third of the older adults experiencing at least one fall or more each year. Because of limited healthcare resources, regular objective fall risk assessments are not possible in the community on a large scale. New methods for fall prediction are necessary to identify and monitor those older people at high risk of falling who would benefit from participating in falls prevention programmes. Technological advances have enabled less expensive ways to quantify physical fall risk in clinical practice and in the homes of older people. Recently, several studies have demonstrated that sensor-based fall risk assessments of postural sway, functional mobility, stepping and walking can discriminate between fallers and nonfallers. Recent research has used low-cost, portable and objective measuring instruments to assess fall risk in older people. Future use of these technologies holds promise for assessing fall risk accurately in an unobtrusive manner in clinical and daily life settings.

  7. Nonparametric predictive pairwise comparison with competing risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coolen-Maturi, Tahani

    2014-01-01

    In reliability, failure data often correspond to competing risks, where several failure modes can cause a unit to fail. This paper presents nonparametric predictive inference (NPI) for pairwise comparison with competing risks data, assuming that the failure modes are independent. These failure modes could be the same or different among the two groups, and these can be both observed and unobserved failure modes. NPI is a statistical approach based on few assumptions, with inferences strongly based on data and with uncertainty quantified via lower and upper probabilities. The focus is on the lower and upper probabilities for the event that the lifetime of a future unit from one group, say Y, is greater than the lifetime of a future unit from the second group, say X. The paper also shows how the two groups can be compared based on particular failure mode(s), and the comparison of the two groups when some of the competing risks are combined is discussed

  8. The prediction of the bankruptcy risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gheorghe DUMITRESCU

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available The study research results of the bankruptcy risk in the actual economic crisis are very weak. This issue is very important for the economy of every country, no matter what their actual development level.The necessity of bankruptcy risk prediction appears in every company,but also in the related institutions like financial companies, investors, suppliers, customers.The bankruptcy risk made and makes the object of many studies of research that want to identify: the moment of the appearance of the bankruptcy, the factors that compete at the reach of this state, the indicators that express the best this orientation (to the bankruptcy.The threats to the firms impose the knowledge by the managers,permanently of the economic-financial situations, of the vulnerable areas and of those with potential of development. Thus, these must identify and gesture the threats that would stop the fulfillment of the established purposes.

  9. Training the Recurrent neural network by the Fuzzy Min-Max algorithm for fault prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zemouri, Ryad; Racoceanu, Daniel; Zerhouni, Noureddine; Minca, Eugenia; Filip, Florin

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, we present a training technique of a Recurrent Radial Basis Function neural network for fault prediction. We use the Fuzzy Min-Max technique to initialize the k-center of the RRBF neural network. The k-means algorithm is then applied to calculate the centers that minimize the mean square error of the prediction task. The performances of the k-means algorithm are then boosted by the Fuzzy Min-Max technique.

  10. An adaptive prediction and detection algorithm for multistream syndromic surveillance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Magruder Steve F

    2005-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Surveillance of Over-the-Counter pharmaceutical (OTC sales as a potential early indicator of developing public health conditions, in particular in cases of interest to biosurvellance, has been suggested in the literature. This paper is a continuation of a previous study in which we formulated the problem of estimating clinical data from OTC sales in terms of optimal LMS linear and Finite Impulse Response (FIR filters. In this paper we extend our results to predict clinical data multiple steps ahead using OTC sales as well as the clinical data itself. Methods The OTC data are grouped into a few categories and we predict the clinical data using a multichannel filter that encompasses all the past OTC categories as well as the past clinical data itself. The prediction is performed using FIR (Finite Impulse Response filters and the recursive least squares method in order to adapt rapidly to nonstationary behaviour. In addition, we inject simulated events in both clinical and OTC data streams to evaluate the predictions by computing the Receiver Operating Characteristic curves of a threshold detector based on predicted outputs. Results We present all prediction results showing the effectiveness of the combined filtering operation. In addition, we compute and present the performance of a detector using the prediction output. Conclusion Multichannel adaptive FIR least squares filtering provides a viable method of predicting public health conditions, as represented by clinical data, from OTC sales, and/or the clinical data. The potential value to a biosurveillance system cannot, however, be determined without studying this approach in the presence of transient events (nonstationary events of relatively short duration and fast rise times. Our simulated events superimposed on actual OTC and clinical data allow us to provide an upper bound on that potential value under some restricted conditions. Based on our ROC curves we argue that a

  11. Geometric Semantic Genetic Programming Algorithm and Slump Prediction

    OpenAIRE

    Xu, Juncai; Shen, Zhenzhong; Ren, Qingwen; Xie, Xin; Yang, Zhengyu

    2017-01-01

    Research on the performance of recycled concrete as building material in the current world is an important subject. Given the complex composition of recycled concrete, conventional methods for forecasting slump scarcely obtain satisfactory results. Based on theory of nonlinear prediction method, we propose a recycled concrete slump prediction model based on geometric semantic genetic programming (GSGP) and combined it with recycled concrete features. Tests show that the model can accurately p...

  12. Prediction of Employee Turnover in Organizations using Machine Learning Algorithms

    OpenAIRE

    Rohit Punnoose; Pankaj Ajit

    2016-01-01

    Employee turnover has been identified as a key issue for organizations because of its adverse impact on work place productivity and long term growth strategies. To solve this problem, organizations use machine learning techniques to predict employee turnover. Accurate predictions enable organizations to take action for retention or succession planning of employees. However, the data for this modeling problem comes from HR Information Systems (HRIS); these are typically under-funded compared t...

  13. Korean risk assessment model for breast cancer risk prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Boyoung; Ma, Seung Hyun; Shin, Aesun; Chang, Myung-Chul; Choi, Ji-Yeob; Kim, Sungwan; Han, Wonshik; Noh, Dong-Young; Ahn, Sei-Hyun; Kang, Daehee; Yoo, Keun-Young; Park, Sue K

    2013-01-01

    We evaluated the performance of the Gail model for a Korean population and developed a Korean breast cancer risk assessment tool (KoBCRAT) based upon equations developed for the Gail model for predicting breast cancer risk. Using 3,789 sets of cases and controls, risk factors for breast cancer among Koreans were identified. Individual probabilities were projected using Gail's equations and Korean hazard data. We compared the 5-year and lifetime risk produced using the modified Gail model which applied Korean incidence and mortality data and the parameter estimators from the original Gail model with those produced using the KoBCRAT. We validated the KoBCRAT based on the expected/observed breast cancer incidence and area under the curve (AUC) using two Korean cohorts: the Korean Multicenter Cancer Cohort (KMCC) and National Cancer Center (NCC) cohort. The major risk factors under the age of 50 were family history, age at menarche, age at first full-term pregnancy, menopausal status, breastfeeding duration, oral contraceptive usage, and exercise, while those at and over the age of 50 were family history, age at menarche, age at menopause, pregnancy experience, body mass index, oral contraceptive usage, and exercise. The modified Gail model produced lower 5-year risk for the cases than for the controls (p = 0.017), while the KoBCRAT produced higher 5-year and lifetime risk for the cases than for the controls (pKorean women, especially urban women.

  14. A Multiple Model Prediction Algorithm for CNC Machine Wear PHM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huimin Chen

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The 2010 PHM data challenge focuses on the remaining useful life (RUL estimation for cutters of a high speed CNC milling machine using measurements from dynamometer, accelerometer, and acoustic emission sensors. We present a multiple model approach for wear depth estimation of milling machine cutters using the provided data. The feature selection, initial wear estimation and multiple model fusion components of the proposed algorithm are explained in details and compared with several alternative methods using the training data. The final submission ranked #2 among professional and student participants and the method is applicable to other data driven PHM problems.

  15. Appropriate Combination of Artificial Intelligence and Algorithms for Increasing Predictive Accuracy Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shahram Gilani Nia

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available In this paper a simple and effective expert system to predict random data fluctuation in short-term period is established. Evaluation process includes introducing Fourier series, Markov chain model prediction and comparison (Gray combined with the model prediction Gray- Fourier- Markov that the mixed results, to create an expert system predicted with artificial intelligence, made this model to predict the effectiveness of random fluctuation in most data management programs to increase. The outcome of this study introduced artificial intelligence algorithms that help detect that the computer environment to create a system that experts predict the short-term and unstable situation happens correctly and accurately predict. To test the effectiveness of the algorithm presented studies (Chen Tzay len,2008, and predicted data of tourism demand for Iran model is used. Results for the two countries show output model has high accuracy.

  16. Model Predictive Control Algorithms for Pen and Pump Insulin Administration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boiroux, Dimitri

    at mealtime, and the case where the insulin sensitivity increases during the night. This thesis consists of a summary report, glucose and insulin proles of the clinical studies and research papers submitted, peer-reviewed and/or published in the period September 2009 - September 2012....... of current closed-loop controllers. In this thesis, we present different control strategies based on Model Predictive Control (MPC) for an artificial pancreas. We use Nonlinear Model Predictive Control (NMPC) in order to determine the optimal insulin and blood glucose profiles. The optimal control problem...

  17. Ensemble of data-driven prognostic algorithms for robust prediction of remaining useful life

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hu Chao; Youn, Byeng D.; Wang Pingfeng; Taek Yoon, Joung

    2012-01-01

    Prognostics aims at determining whether a failure of an engineered system (e.g., a nuclear power plant) is impending and estimating the remaining useful life (RUL) before the failure occurs. The traditional data-driven prognostic approach is to construct multiple candidate algorithms using a training data set, evaluate their respective performance using a testing data set, and select the one with the best performance while discarding all the others. This approach has three shortcomings: (i) the selected standalone algorithm may not be robust; (ii) it wastes the resources for constructing the algorithms that are discarded; (iii) it requires the testing data in addition to the training data. To overcome these drawbacks, this paper proposes an ensemble data-driven prognostic approach which combines multiple member algorithms with a weighted-sum formulation. Three weighting schemes, namely the accuracy-based weighting, diversity-based weighting and optimization-based weighting, are proposed to determine the weights of member algorithms. The k-fold cross validation (CV) is employed to estimate the prediction error required by the weighting schemes. The results obtained from three case studies suggest that the ensemble approach with any weighting scheme gives more accurate RUL predictions compared to any sole algorithm when member algorithms producing diverse RUL predictions have comparable prediction accuracy and that the optimization-based weighting scheme gives the best overall performance among the three weighting schemes.

  18. An application of earthquake prediction algorithm M8 in eastern ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    2Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, ... located about 70 km from a preceding M7.3 earthquake that occurred in ... local extremes of the seismic density distribution, and in the third approach, CI centers were distributed ...... Bird P 2003 An updated digital model of plate boundaries;.

  19. A unified algorithm for predicting partition coefficients for PBPK modeling of drugs and environmental chemicals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peyret, Thomas; Poulin, Patrick; Krishnan, Kannan

    2010-01-01

    The algorithms in the literature focusing to predict tissue:blood PC (P tb ) for environmental chemicals and tissue:plasma PC based on total (K p ) or unbound concentration (K pu ) for drugs differ in their consideration of binding to hemoglobin, plasma proteins and charged phospholipids. The objective of the present study was to develop a unified algorithm such that P tb , K p and K pu for both drugs and environmental chemicals could be predicted. The development of the unified algorithm was accomplished by integrating all mechanistic algorithms previously published to compute the PCs. Furthermore, the algorithm was structured in such a way as to facilitate predictions of the distribution of organic compounds at the macro (i.e. whole tissue) and micro (i.e. cells and fluids) levels. The resulting unified algorithm was applied to compute the rat P tb , K p or K pu of muscle (n = 174), liver (n = 139) and adipose tissue (n = 141) for acidic, neutral, zwitterionic and basic drugs as well as ketones, acetate esters, alcohols, aliphatic hydrocarbons, aromatic hydrocarbons and ethers. The unified algorithm reproduced adequately the values predicted previously by the published algorithms for a total of 142 drugs and chemicals. The sensitivity analysis demonstrated the relative importance of the various compound properties reflective of specific mechanistic determinants relevant to prediction of PC values of drugs and environmental chemicals. Overall, the present unified algorithm uniquely facilitates the computation of macro and micro level PCs for developing organ and cellular-level PBPK models for both chemicals and drugs.

  20. A comprehensive performance evaluation on the prediction results of existing cooperative transcription factors identification algorithms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lai, Fu-Jou; Chang, Hong-Tsun; Huang, Yueh-Min; Wu, Wei-Sheng

    2014-01-01

    Eukaryotic transcriptional regulation is known to be highly connected through the networks of cooperative transcription factors (TFs). Measuring the cooperativity of TFs is helpful for understanding the biological relevance of these TFs in regulating genes. The recent advances in computational techniques led to various predictions of cooperative TF pairs in yeast. As each algorithm integrated different data resources and was developed based on different rationales, it possessed its own merit and claimed outperforming others. However, the claim was prone to subjectivity because each algorithm compared with only a few other algorithms and only used a small set of performance indices for comparison. This motivated us to propose a series of indices to objectively evaluate the prediction performance of existing algorithms. And based on the proposed performance indices, we conducted a comprehensive performance evaluation. We collected 14 sets of predicted cooperative TF pairs (PCTFPs) in yeast from 14 existing algorithms in the literature. Using the eight performance indices we adopted/proposed, the cooperativity of each PCTFP was measured and a ranking score according to the mean cooperativity of the set was given to each set of PCTFPs under evaluation for each performance index. It was seen that the ranking scores of a set of PCTFPs vary with different performance indices, implying that an algorithm used in predicting cooperative TF pairs is of strength somewhere but may be of weakness elsewhere. We finally made a comprehensive ranking for these 14 sets. The results showed that Wang J's study obtained the best performance evaluation on the prediction of cooperative TF pairs in yeast. In this study, we adopted/proposed eight performance indices to make a comprehensive performance evaluation on the prediction results of 14 existing cooperative TFs identification algorithms. Most importantly, these proposed indices can be easily applied to measure the performance of new

  1. Algorithms

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    to as 'divide-and-conquer'. Although there has been a large effort in realizing efficient algorithms, there are not many universally accepted algorithm design paradigms. In this article, we illustrate algorithm design techniques such as balancing, greedy strategy, dynamic programming strategy, and backtracking or traversal of ...

  2. Can machine-learning improve cardiovascular risk prediction using routine clinical data?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kai, Joe; Garibaldi, Jonathan M.; Qureshi, Nadeem

    2017-01-01

    Background Current approaches to predict cardiovascular risk fail to identify many people who would benefit from preventive treatment, while others receive unnecessary intervention. Machine-learning offers opportunity to improve accuracy by exploiting complex interactions between risk factors. We assessed whether machine-learning can improve cardiovascular risk prediction. Methods Prospective cohort study using routine clinical data of 378,256 patients from UK family practices, free from cardiovascular disease at outset. Four machine-learning algorithms (random forest, logistic regression, gradient boosting machines, neural networks) were compared to an established algorithm (American College of Cardiology guidelines) to predict first cardiovascular event over 10-years. Predictive accuracy was assessed by area under the ‘receiver operating curve’ (AUC); and sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV) to predict 7.5% cardiovascular risk (threshold for initiating statins). Findings 24,970 incident cardiovascular events (6.6%) occurred. Compared to the established risk prediction algorithm (AUC 0.728, 95% CI 0.723–0.735), machine-learning algorithms improved prediction: random forest +1.7% (AUC 0.745, 95% CI 0.739–0.750), logistic regression +3.2% (AUC 0.760, 95% CI 0.755–0.766), gradient boosting +3.3% (AUC 0.761, 95% CI 0.755–0.766), neural networks +3.6% (AUC 0.764, 95% CI 0.759–0.769). The highest achieving (neural networks) algorithm predicted 4,998/7,404 cases (sensitivity 67.5%, PPV 18.4%) and 53,458/75,585 non-cases (specificity 70.7%, NPV 95.7%), correctly predicting 355 (+7.6%) more patients who developed cardiovascular disease compared to the established algorithm. Conclusions Machine-learning significantly improves accuracy of cardiovascular risk prediction, increasing the number of patients identified who could benefit from preventive treatment, while avoiding unnecessary treatment of others

  3. Prediction of GPCR-Ligand Binding Using Machine Learning Algorithms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sangmin Seo

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available We propose a novel method that predicts binding of G-protein coupled receptors (GPCRs and ligands. The proposed method uses hub and cycle structures of ligands and amino acid motif sequences of GPCRs, rather than the 3D structure of a receptor or similarity of receptors or ligands. The experimental results show that these new features can be effective in predicting GPCR-ligand binding (average area under the curve [AUC] of 0.944, because they are thought to include hidden properties of good ligand-receptor binding. Using the proposed method, we were able to identify novel ligand-GPCR bindings, some of which are supported by several studies.

  4. Adaboost Ensemble with Simple Genetic Algorithm for Student Prediction Mode

    OpenAIRE

    AhmedSharaf ElDen; ElDen1Malaka A. Moustafa2Hany; M. Harb; AbdelH.Emara

    2013-01-01

    Predicting the student performance is a great concern to the higher education managements.Thisprediction helps to identify and to improve students' performance.Several factors may improve thisperformance.In the present study, we employ the data mining processes, particularly classification, toenhance the quality of the higher educational system. Recently, a new direction is used for the improvementof the classification accuracy by combining classifiers.In thispaper, we design and evaluate a f...

  5. An outlook on robust model predictive control algorithms : Reflections on performance and computational aspects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Saltik, M.B.; Özkan, L.; Ludlage, J.H.A.; Weiland, S.; Van den Hof, P.M.J.

    2018-01-01

    In this paper, we discuss the model predictive control algorithms that are tailored for uncertain systems. Robustness notions with respect to both deterministic (or set based) and stochastic uncertainties are discussed and contributions are reviewed in the model predictive control literature. We

  6. A new algorithm predicts pressure and temperature profiles of gas/gas-condensate transmission pipelines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mokhatab, Saied [OIEC - Oil Industries' Engineering and Construction Group, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Vatani, Ali [University of Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2003-07-01

    The main objective of the present study has been the development of a relatively simple analytical algorithm for predicting flow temperature and pressure profiles along the two-phase, gas/gas-condensate transmission pipelines. Results demonstrate the ability of the method to predict reasonably accurate pressure gradient and temperature gradient profiles under operating conditions. (author)

  7. A rank-based Prediction Algorithm of Learning User's Intention

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Jie; Gao, Ying; Chen, Cang; Gong, HaiPing

    Internet search has become an important part in people's daily life. People can find many types of information to meet different needs through search engines on the Internet. There are two issues for the current search engines: first, the users should predetermine the types of information they want and then change to the appropriate types of search engine interfaces. Second, most search engines can support multiple kinds of search functions, each function has its own separate search interface. While users need different types of information, they must switch between different interfaces. In practice, most queries are corresponding to various types of information results. These queries can search the relevant results in various search engines, such as query "Palace" contains the websites about the introduction of the National Palace Museum, blog, Wikipedia, some pictures and video information. This paper presents a new aggregative algorithm for all kinds of search results. It can filter and sort the search results by learning three aspects about the query words, search results and search history logs to achieve the purpose of detecting user's intention. Experiments demonstrate that this rank-based method for multi-types of search results is effective. It can meet the user's search needs well, enhance user's satisfaction, provide an effective and rational model for optimizing search engines and improve user's search experience.

  8. A First-order Prediction-Correction Algorithm for Time-varying (Constrained) Optimization: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dall-Anese, Emiliano [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Simonetto, Andrea [Universite catholique de Louvain

    2017-07-25

    This paper focuses on the design of online algorithms based on prediction-correction steps to track the optimal solution of a time-varying constrained problem. Existing prediction-correction methods have been shown to work well for unconstrained convex problems and for settings where obtaining the inverse of the Hessian of the cost function can be computationally affordable. The prediction-correction algorithm proposed in this paper addresses the limitations of existing methods by tackling constrained problems and by designing a first-order prediction step that relies on the Hessian of the cost function (and do not require the computation of its inverse). Analytical results are established to quantify the tracking error. Numerical simulations corroborate the analytical results and showcase performance and benefits of the algorithms.

  9. Application of Machine Learning Algorithms for the Query Performance Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MILICEVIC, M.

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyzes the relationship between the system load/throughput and the query response time in a real Online transaction processing (OLTP system environment. Although OLTP systems are characterized by short transactions, which normally entail high availability and consistent short response times, the need for operational reporting may jeopardize these objectives. We suggest a new approach to performance prediction for concurrent database workloads, based on the system state vector which consists of 36 attributes. There is no bias to the importance of certain attributes, but the machine learning methods are used to determine which attributes better describe the behavior of the particular database server and how to model that system. During the learning phase, the system's profile is created using multiple reference queries, which are selected to represent frequent business processes. The possibility of the accurate response time prediction may be a foundation for automated decision-making for database (DB query scheduling. Possible applications of the proposed method include adaptive resource allocation, quality of service (QoS management or real-time dynamic query scheduling (e.g. estimation of the optimal moment for a complex query execution.

  10. A Clinical Prediction Algorithm to Stratify Pediatric Musculoskeletal Infection by Severity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benvenuti, Michael A; An, Thomas J; Mignemi, Megan E; Martus, Jeffrey E; Mencio, Gregory A; Lovejoy, Stephen A; Thomsen, Isaac P; Schoenecker, Jonathan G; Williams, Derek J

    2016-01-01

    Objective There are currently no algorithms for early stratification of pediatric musculoskeletal infection (MSKI) severity that are applicable to all types of tissue involvement. In this study, the authors sought to develop a clinical prediction algorithm that accurately stratifies infection severity based on clinical and laboratory data at presentation to the emergency department. Methods An IRB-approved retrospective review was conducted to identify patients aged 0–18 who presented to the pediatric emergency department at a tertiary care children’s hospital with concern for acute MSKI over a five-year period (2008–2013). Qualifying records were reviewed to obtain clinical and laboratory data and to classify in-hospital outcomes using a three-tiered severity stratification system. Ordinal regression was used to estimate risk for each outcome. Candidate predictors included age, temperature, respiratory rate, heart rate, C-reactive protein, and peripheral white blood cell count. We fit fully specified (all predictors) and reduced models (retaining predictors with a p-value ≤ 0.2). Discriminatory power of the models was assessed using the concordance (c)-index. Results Of the 273 identified children, 191 (70%) met inclusion criteria. Median age was 5.8 years. Outcomes included 47 (25%) children with inflammation only, 41 (21%) with local infection, and 103 (54%) with disseminated infection. Both the full and reduced models accurately demonstrated excellent performance (full model c-index 0.83, 95% CI [0.79–0.88]; reduced model 0.83, 95% CI [0.78–0.87]). Model fit was also similar, indicating preference for the reduced model. Variables in this model included C-reactive protein, pulse, temperature, and an interaction term for pulse and temperature. The odds of a more severe outcome increased by 30% for every 10-unit increase in C-reactive protein. Conclusions Clinical and laboratory data obtained in the emergency department may be used to accurately

  11. Predicting patchy particle crystals: variable box shape simulations and evolutionary algorithms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bianchi, Emanuela; Doppelbauer, Günther; Filion, Laura; Dijkstra, Marjolein; Kahl, Gerhard

    2012-06-07

    We consider several patchy particle models that have been proposed in literature and we investigate their candidate crystal structures in a systematic way. We compare two different algorithms for predicting crystal structures: (i) an approach based on Monte Carlo simulations in the isobaric-isothermal ensemble and (ii) an optimization technique based on ideas of evolutionary algorithms. We show that the two methods are equally successful and provide consistent results on crystalline phases of patchy particle systems.

  12. Adaptive algorithm for predicting increases in central loads of electrical energy systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arbachyauskene, N A; Pushinaytis, K V

    1982-01-01

    An adaptive algorithm for predicting increases in central loads of the electrical energy system is suggested for the task of evaluating the condition. The algorithm is based on the Kalman filter. In order to calculate the coefficient of intensification, the a priori assigned noise characteristics with low accuracy are used only in the beginning of the calculation. Further, the coefficient of intensification is calculated from the innovation sequence. This approach makes it possible to correct errors in the assignment of the statistical noise characteristics and to follow their changes. The algorithm is experimentally verified.

  13. A time series based sequence prediction algorithm to detect activities of daily living in smart home.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marufuzzaman, M; Reaz, M B I; Ali, M A M; Rahman, L F

    2015-01-01

    The goal of smart homes is to create an intelligent environment adapting the inhabitants need and assisting the person who needs special care and safety in their daily life. This can be reached by collecting the ADL (activities of daily living) data and further analysis within existing computing elements. In this research, a very recent algorithm named sequence prediction via enhanced episode discovery (SPEED) is modified and in order to improve accuracy time component is included. The modified SPEED or M-SPEED is a sequence prediction algorithm, which modified the previous SPEED algorithm by using time duration of appliance's ON-OFF states to decide the next state. M-SPEED discovered periodic episodes of inhabitant behavior, trained it with learned episodes, and made decisions based on the obtained knowledge. The results showed that M-SPEED achieves 96.8% prediction accuracy, which is better than other time prediction algorithms like PUBS, ALZ with temporal rules and the previous SPEED. Since human behavior shows natural temporal patterns, duration times can be used to predict future events more accurately. This inhabitant activity prediction system will certainly improve the smart homes by ensuring safety and better care for elderly and handicapped people.

  14. A Wavelet Analysis-Based Dynamic Prediction Algorithm to Network Traffic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meng Fan-Bo

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Network traffic is a significantly important parameter for network traffic engineering, while it holds highly dynamic nature in the network. Accordingly, it is difficult and impossible to directly predict traffic amount of end-to-end flows. This paper proposes a new prediction algorithm to network traffic using the wavelet analysis. Firstly, network traffic is converted into the time-frequency domain to capture time-frequency feature of network traffic. Secondly, in different frequency components, we model network traffic in the time-frequency domain. Finally, we build the prediction model about network traffic. At the same time, the corresponding prediction algorithm is presented to attain network traffic prediction. Simulation results indicates that our approach is promising.

  15. Advertisement Click-Through Rate Prediction Based on the Weighted-ELM and Adaboost Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sen Zhang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Accurate click-through rate (CTR prediction can not only improve the advertisement company’s reputation and revenue, but also help the advertisers to optimize the advertising performance. There are two main unsolved problems of the CTR prediction: low prediction accuracy due to the imbalanced distribution of the advertising data and the lack of the real-time advertisement bidding implementation. In this paper, we will develop a novel online CTR prediction approach by incorporating the real-time bidding (RTB advertising by the following strategies: user profile system is constructed from the historical data of the RTB advertising to describe the user features, the historical CTR features, the ID features, and the other numerical features. A novel CTR prediction approach is presented to address the imbalanced learning sample distribution by integrating the Weighted-ELM (WELM and the Adaboost algorithm. Compared to the commonly used algorithms, the proposed approach can improve the CTR significantly.

  16. Testing earthquake prediction algorithms: Statistically significant advance prediction of the largest earthquakes in the Circum-Pacific, 1992-1997

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kossobokov, V.G.; Romashkova, L.L.; Keilis-Borok, V. I.; Healy, J.H.

    1999-01-01

    Algorithms M8 and MSc (i.e., the Mendocino Scenario) were used in a real-time intermediate-term research prediction of the strongest earthquakes in the Circum-Pacific seismic belt. Predictions are made by M8 first. Then, the areas of alarm are reduced by MSc at the cost that some earthquakes are missed in the second approximation of prediction. In 1992-1997, five earthquakes of magnitude 8 and above occurred in the test area: all of them were predicted by M8 and MSc identified correctly the locations of four of them. The space-time volume of the alarms is 36% and 18%, correspondingly, when estimated with a normalized product measure of empirical distribution of epicenters and uniform time. The statistical significance of the achieved results is beyond 99% both for M8 and MSc. For magnitude 7.5 + , 10 out of 19 earthquakes were predicted by M8 in 40% and five were predicted by M8-MSc in 13% of the total volume considered. This implies a significance level of 81% for M8 and 92% for M8-MSc. The lower significance levels might result from a global change in seismic regime in 1993-1996, when the rate of the largest events has doubled and all of them become exclusively normal or reversed faults. The predictions are fully reproducible; the algorithms M8 and MSc in complete formal definitions were published before we started our experiment [Keilis-Borok, V.I., Kossobokov, V.G., 1990. Premonitory activation of seismic flow: Algorithm M8, Phys. Earth and Planet. Inter. 61, 73-83; Kossobokov, V.G., Keilis-Borok, V.I., Smith, S.W., 1990. Localization of intermediate-term earthquake prediction, J. Geophys. Res., 95, 19763-19772; Healy, J.H., Kossobokov, V.G., Dewey, J.W., 1992. A test to evaluate the earthquake prediction algorithm, M8. U.S. Geol. Surv. OFR 92-401]. M8 is available from the IASPEI Software Library [Healy, J.H., Keilis-Borok, V.I., Lee, W.H.K. (Eds.), 1997. Algorithms for Earthquake Statistics and Prediction, Vol. 6. IASPEI Software Library]. ?? 1999 Elsevier

  17. SNBRFinder: A Sequence-Based Hybrid Algorithm for Enhanced Prediction of Nucleic Acid-Binding Residues.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Xiaoxia; Wang, Jia; Sun, Jun; Liu, Rong

    2015-01-01

    Protein-nucleic acid interactions are central to various fundamental biological processes. Automated methods capable of reliably identifying DNA- and RNA-binding residues in protein sequence are assuming ever-increasing importance. The majority of current algorithms rely on feature-based prediction, but their accuracy remains to be further improved. Here we propose a sequence-based hybrid algorithm SNBRFinder (Sequence-based Nucleic acid-Binding Residue Finder) by merging a feature predictor SNBRFinderF and a template predictor SNBRFinderT. SNBRFinderF was established using the support vector machine whose inputs include sequence profile and other complementary sequence descriptors, while SNBRFinderT was implemented with the sequence alignment algorithm based on profile hidden Markov models to capture the weakly homologous template of query sequence. Experimental results show that SNBRFinderF was clearly superior to the commonly used sequence profile-based predictor and SNBRFinderT can achieve comparable performance to the structure-based template methods. Leveraging the complementary relationship between these two predictors, SNBRFinder reasonably improved the performance of both DNA- and RNA-binding residue predictions. More importantly, the sequence-based hybrid prediction reached competitive performance relative to our previous structure-based counterpart. Our extensive and stringent comparisons show that SNBRFinder has obvious advantages over the existing sequence-based prediction algorithms. The value of our algorithm is highlighted by establishing an easy-to-use web server that is freely accessible at http://ibi.hzau.edu.cn/SNBRFinder.

  18. Distribution of Short-Term and Lifetime Predicted Risks of Cardiovascular Diseases in Peruvian Adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quispe, Renato; Bazo-Alvarez, Juan Carlos; Burroughs Peña, Melissa S; Poterico, Julio A; Gilman, Robert H; Checkley, William; Bernabé-Ortiz, Antonio; Huffman, Mark D; Miranda, J Jaime

    2015-08-07

    Short-term risk assessment tools for prediction of cardiovascular disease events are widely recommended in clinical practice and are used largely for single time-point estimations; however, persons with low predicted short-term risk may have higher risks across longer time horizons. We estimated short-term and lifetime cardiovascular disease risk in a pooled population from 2 studies of Peruvian populations. Short-term risk was estimated using the atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease Pooled Cohort Risk Equations. Lifetime risk was evaluated using the algorithm derived from the Framingham Heart Study cohort. Using previously published thresholds, participants were classified into 3 categories: low short-term and low lifetime risk, low short-term and high lifetime risk, and high short-term predicted risk. We also compared the distribution of these risk profiles across educational level, wealth index, and place of residence. We included 2844 participants (50% men, mean age 55.9 years [SD 10.2 years]) in the analysis. Approximately 1 of every 3 participants (34% [95% CI 33 to 36]) had a high short-term estimated cardiovascular disease risk. Among those with a low short-term predicted risk, more than half (54% [95% CI 52 to 56]) had a high lifetime predicted risk. Short-term and lifetime predicted risks were higher for participants with lower versus higher wealth indexes and educational levels and for those living in urban versus rural areas (PPeruvian adults were classified as low short-term risk but high lifetime risk. Vulnerable adults, such as those from low socioeconomic status and those living in urban areas, may need greater attention regarding cardiovascular preventive strategies. © 2015 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley Blackwell.

  19. Distribution of Short-Term and Lifetime Predicted Risks of Cardiovascular Diseases in Peruvian Adults

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quispe, Renato; Bazo-Alvarez, Juan Carlos; Burroughs Peña, Melissa S; Poterico, Julio A; Gilman, Robert H; Checkley, William; Bernabé-Ortiz, Antonio; Huffman, Mark D; Miranda, J Jaime

    2015-01-01

    Background Short-term risk assessment tools for prediction of cardiovascular disease events are widely recommended in clinical practice and are used largely for single time-point estimations; however, persons with low predicted short-term risk may have higher risks across longer time horizons. Methods and Results We estimated short-term and lifetime cardiovascular disease risk in a pooled population from 2 studies of Peruvian populations. Short-term risk was estimated using the atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease Pooled Cohort Risk Equations. Lifetime risk was evaluated using the algorithm derived from the Framingham Heart Study cohort. Using previously published thresholds, participants were classified into 3 categories: low short-term and low lifetime risk, low short-term and high lifetime risk, and high short-term predicted risk. We also compared the distribution of these risk profiles across educational level, wealth index, and place of residence. We included 2844 participants (50% men, mean age 55.9 years [SD 10.2 years]) in the analysis. Approximately 1 of every 3 participants (34% [95% CI 33 to 36]) had a high short-term estimated cardiovascular disease risk. Among those with a low short-term predicted risk, more than half (54% [95% CI 52 to 56]) had a high lifetime predicted risk. Short-term and lifetime predicted risks were higher for participants with lower versus higher wealth indexes and educational levels and for those living in urban versus rural areas (PPeruvian adults were classified as low short-term risk but high lifetime risk. Vulnerable adults, such as those from low socioeconomic status and those living in urban areas, may need greater attention regarding cardiovascular preventive strategies. PMID:26254303

  20. Investigation of energy management strategies for photovoltaic systems - A predictive control algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cull, R. C.; Eltimsahy, A. H.

    1983-01-01

    The present investigation is concerned with the formulation of energy management strategies for stand-alone photovoltaic (PV) systems, taking into account a basic control algorithm for a possible predictive, (and adaptive) controller. The control system controls the flow of energy in the system according to the amount of energy available, and predicts the appropriate control set-points based on the energy (insolation) available by using an appropriate system model. Aspects of adaptation to the conditions of the system are also considered. Attention is given to a statistical analysis technique, the analysis inputs, the analysis procedure, and details regarding the basic control algorithm.

  1. Bayesian Algorithm Implementation in a Real Time Exposure Assessment Model on Benzene with Calculation of Associated Cancer Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pavlos A. Kassomenos

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available The objective of the current study was the development of a reliable modeling platform to calculate in real time the personal exposure and the associated health risk for filling station employees evaluating current environmental parameters (traffic, meteorological and amount of fuel traded determined by the appropriate sensor network. A set of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs was developed to predict benzene exposure pattern for the filling station employees. Furthermore, a Physiology Based Pharmaco-Kinetic (PBPK risk assessment model was developed in order to calculate the lifetime probability distribution of leukemia to the employees, fed by data obtained by the ANN model. Bayesian algorithm was involved in crucial points of both model sub compartments. The application was evaluated in two filling stations (one urban and one rural. Among several algorithms available for the development of the ANN exposure model, Bayesian regularization provided the best results and seemed to be a promising technique for prediction of the exposure pattern of that occupational population group. On assessing the estimated leukemia risk under the scope of providing a distribution curve based on the exposure levels and the different susceptibility of the population, the Bayesian algorithm was a prerequisite of the Monte Carlo approach, which is integrated in the PBPK-based risk model. In conclusion, the modeling system described herein is capable of exploiting the information collected by the environmental sensors in order to estimate in real time the personal exposure and the resulting health risk for employees of gasoline filling stations.

  2. Bayesian algorithm implementation in a real time exposure assessment model on benzene with calculation of associated cancer risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarigiannis, Dimosthenis A; Karakitsios, Spyros P; Gotti, Alberto; Papaloukas, Costas L; Kassomenos, Pavlos A; Pilidis, Georgios A

    2009-01-01

    The objective of the current study was the development of a reliable modeling platform to calculate in real time the personal exposure and the associated health risk for filling station employees evaluating current environmental parameters (traffic, meteorological and amount of fuel traded) determined by the appropriate sensor network. A set of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) was developed to predict benzene exposure pattern for the filling station employees. Furthermore, a Physiology Based Pharmaco-Kinetic (PBPK) risk assessment model was developed in order to calculate the lifetime probability distribution of leukemia to the employees, fed by data obtained by the ANN model. Bayesian algorithm was involved in crucial points of both model sub compartments. The application was evaluated in two filling stations (one urban and one rural). Among several algorithms available for the development of the ANN exposure model, Bayesian regularization provided the best results and seemed to be a promising technique for prediction of the exposure pattern of that occupational population group. On assessing the estimated leukemia risk under the scope of providing a distribution curve based on the exposure levels and the different susceptibility of the population, the Bayesian algorithm was a prerequisite of the Monte Carlo approach, which is integrated in the PBPK-based risk model. In conclusion, the modeling system described herein is capable of exploiting the information collected by the environmental sensors in order to estimate in real time the personal exposure and the resulting health risk for employees of gasoline filling stations.

  3. An efficient attack identification and risk prediction algorithm for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The social media is highly utilized cloud for storing huge amount of data. ... However, the adversarial scenario did not design properly to maintain the privacy of the ... Information Retrieval, Security Evaluation, Efficient Attack Identification and ...

  4. RNA secondary structure prediction with pseudoknots: Contribution of algorithm versus energy model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jabbari, Hosna; Wark, Ian; Montemagno, Carlo

    2018-01-01

    RNA is a biopolymer with various applications inside the cell and in biotechnology. Structure of an RNA molecule mainly determines its function and is essential to guide nanostructure design. Since experimental structure determination is time-consuming and expensive, accurate computational prediction of RNA structure is of great importance. Prediction of RNA secondary structure is relatively simpler than its tertiary structure and provides information about its tertiary structure, therefore, RNA secondary structure prediction has received attention in the past decades. Numerous methods with different folding approaches have been developed for RNA secondary structure prediction. While methods for prediction of RNA pseudoknot-free structure (structures with no crossing base pairs) have greatly improved in terms of their accuracy, methods for prediction of RNA pseudoknotted secondary structure (structures with crossing base pairs) still have room for improvement. A long-standing question for improving the prediction accuracy of RNA pseudoknotted secondary structure is whether to focus on the prediction algorithm or the underlying energy model, as there is a trade-off on computational cost of the prediction algorithm versus the generality of the method. The aim of this work is to argue when comparing different methods for RNA pseudoknotted structure prediction, the combination of algorithm and energy model should be considered and a method should not be considered superior or inferior to others if they do not use the same scoring model. We demonstrate that while the folding approach is important in structure prediction, it is not the only important factor in prediction accuracy of a given method as the underlying energy model is also as of great value. Therefore we encourage researchers to pay particular attention in comparing methods with different energy models.

  5. Accuracy of algorithms to predict accessory pathway location in children with Wolff-Parkinson-White syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wren, Christopher; Vogel, Melanie; Lord, Stephen; Abrams, Dominic; Bourke, John; Rees, Philip; Rosenthal, Eric

    2012-02-01

    The aim of this study was to examine the accuracy in predicting pathway location in children with Wolff-Parkinson-White syndrome for each of seven published algorithms. ECGs from 100 consecutive children with Wolff-Parkinson-White syndrome undergoing electrophysiological study were analysed by six investigators using seven published algorithms, six of which had been developed in adult patients. Accuracy and concordance of predictions were adjusted for the number of pathway locations. Accessory pathways were left-sided in 49, septal in 20 and right-sided in 31 children. Overall accuracy of prediction was 30-49% for the exact location and 61-68% including adjacent locations. Concordance between investigators varied between 41% and 86%. No algorithm was better at predicting septal pathways (accuracy 5-35%, improving to 40-78% including adjacent locations), but one was significantly worse. Predictive accuracy was 24-53% for the exact location of right-sided pathways (50-71% including adjacent locations) and 32-55% for the exact location of left-sided pathways (58-73% including adjacent locations). All algorithms were less accurate in our hands than in other authors' own assessment. None performed well in identifying midseptal or right anteroseptal accessory pathway locations.

  6. An improved shuffled frog leaping algorithm based evolutionary framework for currency exchange rate prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dash, Rajashree

    2017-11-01

    Forecasting purchasing power of one currency with respect to another currency is always an interesting topic in the field of financial time series prediction. Despite the existence of several traditional and computational models for currency exchange rate forecasting, there is always a need for developing simpler and more efficient model, which will produce better prediction capability. In this paper, an evolutionary framework is proposed by using an improved shuffled frog leaping (ISFL) algorithm with a computationally efficient functional link artificial neural network (CEFLANN) for prediction of currency exchange rate. The model is validated by observing the monthly prediction measures obtained for three currency exchange data sets such as USD/CAD, USD/CHF, and USD/JPY accumulated within same period of time. The model performance is also compared with two other evolutionary learning techniques such as Shuffled frog leaping algorithm and Particle Swarm optimization algorithm. Practical analysis of results suggest that, the proposed model developed using the ISFL algorithm with CEFLANN network is a promising predictor model for currency exchange rate prediction compared to other models included in the study.

  7. Algorithm for predicting the evolution of series of dynamics of complex systems in solving information problems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasatkina, T. I.; Dushkin, A. V.; Pavlov, V. A.; Shatovkin, R. R.

    2018-03-01

    In the development of information, systems and programming to predict the series of dynamics, neural network methods have recently been applied. They are more flexible, in comparison with existing analogues and are capable of taking into account the nonlinearities of the series. In this paper, we propose a modified algorithm for predicting the series of dynamics, which includes a method for training neural networks, an approach to describing and presenting input data, based on the prediction by the multilayer perceptron method. To construct a neural network, the values of a series of dynamics at the extremum points and time values corresponding to them, formed based on the sliding window method, are used as input data. The proposed algorithm can act as an independent approach to predicting the series of dynamics, and be one of the parts of the forecasting system. The efficiency of predicting the evolution of the dynamics series for a short-term one-step and long-term multi-step forecast by the classical multilayer perceptron method and a modified algorithm using synthetic and real data is compared. The result of this modification was the minimization of the magnitude of the iterative error that arises from the previously predicted inputs to the inputs to the neural network, as well as the increase in the accuracy of the iterative prediction of the neural network.

  8. Probabilistic risk assessment for six vapour intrusion algorithms

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Provoost, J.; Reijnders, L.; Bronders, J.; Van Keer, I.; Govaerts, S.

    2014-01-01

    A probabilistic assessment with sensitivity analysis using Monte Carlo simulation for six vapour intrusion algorithms, used in various regulatory frameworks for contaminated land management, is presented here. In addition a deterministic approach with default parameter sets is evaluated against

  9. Beam-column joint shear prediction using hybridized deep learning neural network with genetic algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mundher Yaseen, Zaher; Abdulmohsin Afan, Haitham; Tran, Minh-Tung

    2018-04-01

    Scientifically evidenced that beam-column joints are a critical point in the reinforced concrete (RC) structure under the fluctuation loads effects. In this novel hybrid data-intelligence model developed to predict the joint shear behavior of exterior beam-column structure frame. The hybrid data-intelligence model is called genetic algorithm integrated with deep learning neural network model (GA-DLNN). The genetic algorithm is used as prior modelling phase for the input approximation whereas the DLNN predictive model is used for the prediction phase. To demonstrate this structural problem, experimental data is collected from the literature that defined the dimensional and specimens’ properties. The attained findings evidenced the efficitveness of the hybrid GA-DLNN in modelling beam-column joint shear problem. In addition, the accurate prediction achived with less input variables owing to the feasibility of the evolutionary phase.

  10. Algorithms

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    ticians but also forms the foundation of computer science. Two ... with methods of developing algorithms for solving a variety of problems but ... applications of computers in science and engineer- ... numerical calculus are as important. We will ...

  11. Simulated Annealing Genetic Algorithm Based Schedule Risk Management of IT Outsourcing Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fuqiang Lu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available IT outsourcing is an effective way to enhance the core competitiveness for many enterprises. But the schedule risk of IT outsourcing project may cause enormous economic loss to enterprise. In this paper, the Distributed Decision Making (DDM theory and the principal-agent theory are used to build a model for schedule risk management of IT outsourcing project. In addition, a hybrid algorithm combining simulated annealing (SA and genetic algorithm (GA is designed, namely, simulated annealing genetic algorithm (SAGA. The effect of the proposed model on the schedule risk management problem is analyzed in the simulation experiment. Meanwhile, the simulation results of the three algorithms GA, SA, and SAGA show that SAGA is the most superior one to the other two algorithms in terms of stability and convergence. Consequently, this paper provides the scientific quantitative proposal for the decision maker who needs to manage the schedule risk of IT outsourcing project.

  12. Dynamically Predicting the Quality of Service: Batch, Online, and Hybrid Algorithms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ya Chen

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper studies the problem of dynamically modeling the quality of web service. The philosophy of designing practical web service recommender systems is delivered in this paper. A general system architecture for such systems continuously collects the user-service invocation records and includes both an online training module and an offline training module for quality prediction. In addition, we introduce matrix factorization-based online and offline training algorithms based on the gradient descent algorithms and demonstrate the fitness of this online/offline algorithm framework to the proposed architecture. The superiority of the proposed model is confirmed by empirical studies on a real-life quality of web service data set and comparisons with existing web service recommendation algorithms.

  13. Crius: A Novel Fragment-Based Algorithm of De Novo Substrate Prediction for Enzymes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Zhiqiang; Jiang, Shuiqin; Zhang, Lujia; Gao, Bei; He, Xiao; Zhang, John Z H; Wei, Dongzhi

    2018-05-03

    The study of enzyme substrate specificity is vital for developing potential applications of enzymes. However, the routine experimental procedures require lot of resources in the discovery of novel substrates. This article reports an in silico structure-based algorithm called Crius, which predicts substrates for enzyme. The results of this fragment-based algorithm show good agreements between the simulated and experimental substrate specificities, using a lipase from Candida antarctica (CALB), a nitrilase from Cyanobacterium syechocystis sp. PCC6803 (Nit6803), and an aldo-keto reductase from Gluconobacter oxydans (Gox0644). This opens new prospects of developing computer algorithms that can effectively predict substrates for an enzyme. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. © 2018 The Protein Society.

  14. Sequence-based prediction of protein protein interaction using a deep-learning algorithm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Tanlin; Zhou, Bo; Lai, Luhua; Pei, Jianfeng

    2017-05-25

    Protein-protein interactions (PPIs) are critical for many biological processes. It is therefore important to develop accurate high-throughput methods for identifying PPI to better understand protein function, disease occurrence, and therapy design. Though various computational methods for predicting PPI have been developed, their robustness for prediction with external datasets is unknown. Deep-learning algorithms have achieved successful results in diverse areas, but their effectiveness for PPI prediction has not been tested. We used a stacked autoencoder, a type of deep-learning algorithm, to study the sequence-based PPI prediction. The best model achieved an average accuracy of 97.19% with 10-fold cross-validation. The prediction accuracies for various external datasets ranged from 87.99% to 99.21%, which are superior to those achieved with previous methods. To our knowledge, this research is the first to apply a deep-learning algorithm to sequence-based PPI prediction, and the results demonstrate its potential in this field.

  15. Improved Sampling Algorithms in the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization Toolkit

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mandelli, Diego [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Smith, Curtis Lee [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Alfonsi, Andrea [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Rabiti, Cristian [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Cogliati, Joshua Joseph [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2015-09-01

    The RISMC approach is developing advanced set of methodologies and algorithms in order to perform Probabilistic Risk Analyses (PRAs). In contrast to classical PRA methods, which are based on Event-Tree and Fault-Tree methods, the RISMC approach largely employs system simulator codes applied to stochastic analysis tools. The basic idea is to randomly perturb (by employing sampling algorithms) timing and sequencing of events and internal parameters of the system codes (i.e., uncertain parameters) in order to estimate stochastic parameters such as core damage probability. This approach applied to complex systems such as nuclear power plants requires to perform a series of computationally expensive simulation runs given a large set of uncertain parameters. These types of analysis are affected by two issues. Firstly, the space of the possible solutions (a.k.a., the issue space or the response surface) can be sampled only very sparsely, and this precludes the ability to fully analyze the impact of uncertainties on the system dynamics. Secondly, large amounts of data are generated and tools to generate knowledge from such data sets are not yet available. This report focuses on the first issue and in particular employs novel methods that optimize the information generated by the sampling process by sampling unexplored and risk-significant regions of the issue space: adaptive (smart) sampling algorithms. They infer system response from surrogate models constructed from existing samples and predict the most relevant location of the next sample. It is therefore possible to understand features of the issue space with a small number of carefully selected samples. In this report, we will present how it is possible to perform adaptive sampling using the RISMC toolkit and highlight the advantages compared to more classical sampling approaches such Monte-Carlo. We will employ RAVEN to perform such statistical analyses using both analytical cases but also another RISMC code: RELAP-7.

  16. Improved Sampling Algorithms in the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization Toolkit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mandelli, Diego; Smith, Curtis Lee; Alfonsi, Andrea; Rabiti, Cristian; Cogliati, Joshua Joseph

    2015-01-01

    The RISMC approach is developing advanced set of methodologies and algorithms in order to perform Probabilistic Risk Analyses (PRAs). In contrast to classical PRA methods, which are based on Event-Tree and Fault-Tree methods, the RISMC approach largely employs system simulator codes applied to stochastic analysis tools. The basic idea is to randomly perturb (by employing sampling algorithms) timing and sequencing of events and internal parameters of the system codes (i.e., uncertain parameters) in order to estimate stochastic parameters such as core damage probability. This approach applied to complex systems such as nuclear power plants requires to perform a series of computationally expensive simulation runs given a large set of uncertain parameters. These types of analysis are affected by two issues. Firstly, the space of the possible solutions (a.k.a., the issue space or the response surface) can be sampled only very sparsely, and this precludes the ability to fully analyze the impact of uncertainties on the system dynamics. Secondly, large amounts of data are generated and tools to generate knowledge from such data sets are not yet available. This report focuses on the first issue and in particular employs novel methods that optimize the information generated by the sampling process by sampling unexplored and risk-significant regions of the issue space: adaptive (smart) sampling algorithms. They infer system response from surrogate models constructed from existing samples and predict the most relevant location of the next sample. It is therefore possible to understand features of the issue space with a small number of carefully selected samples. In this report, we will present how it is possible to perform adaptive sampling using the RISMC toolkit and highlight the advantages compared to more classical sampling approaches such Monte-Carlo. We will employ RAVEN to perform such statistical analyses using both analytical cases but also another RISMC code: RELAP-7.

  17. Predicting patchy particle crystals: variable box shape simulations and evolutionary algorithms

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bianchi, E.; Doppelbauer, G.; Filion, L.C.; Dijkstra, M.; Kahl, G.

    2012-01-01

    We consider several patchy particle models that have been proposed in literature and we investigate their candidate crystal structures in a systematic way. We compare two different algorithms for predicting crystal structures: (i) an approach based on Monte Carlo simulations in the

  18. Analysis of longitudinal variations in North Pacific alkalinity to improve predictive algorithms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fry, Claudia H.; Tyrrell, Toby; Achterberg, Eric P.

    2016-10-01

    The causes of natural variation in alkalinity in the North Pacific surface ocean need to be investigated to understand the carbon cycle and to improve predictive algorithms. We used GLODAPv2 to test hypotheses on the causes of three longitudinal phenomena in Alk*, a tracer of calcium carbonate cycling. These phenomena are (a) an increase from east to west between 45°N and 55°N, (b) an increase from west to east between 25°N and 40°N, and (c) a minor increase from west to east in the equatorial upwelling region. Between 45°N and 55°N, Alk* is higher on the western than on the eastern side, and this is associated with denser isopycnals with higher Alk* lying at shallower depths. Between 25°N and 40°N, upwelling along the North American continental shelf causes higher Alk* in the east. Along the equator, a strong east-west trend was not observed, even though the upwelling on the eastern side of the basin is more intense, because the water brought to the surface is not high in Alk*. We created two algorithms to predict alkalinity, one for the entire Pacific Ocean north of 30°S and one for the eastern margin. The Pacific Ocean algorithm is more accurate than the commonly used algorithm published by Lee et al. (2006), of similar accuracy to the best previously published algorithm by Sasse et al. (2013), and is less biased with longitude than other algorithms in the subpolar North Pacific. Our eastern margin algorithm is more accurate than previously published algorithms.

  19. Predicting dementia risk in primary care: development and validation of the Dementia Risk Score using routinely collected data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walters, K; Hardoon, S; Petersen, I; Iliffe, S; Omar, R Z; Nazareth, I; Rait, G

    2016-01-21

    Existing dementia risk scores require collection of additional data from patients, limiting their use in practice. Routinely collected healthcare data have the potential to assess dementia risk without the need to collect further information. Our objective was to develop and validate a 5-year dementia risk score derived from primary healthcare data. We used data from general practices in The Health Improvement Network (THIN) database from across the UK, randomly selecting 377 practices for a development cohort and identifying 930,395 patients aged 60-95 years without a recording of dementia, cognitive impairment or memory symptoms at baseline. We developed risk algorithm models for two age groups (60-79 and 80-95 years). An external validation was conducted by validating the model on a separate cohort of 264,224 patients from 95 randomly chosen THIN practices that did not contribute to the development cohort. Our main outcome was 5-year risk of first recorded dementia diagnosis. Potential predictors included sociodemographic, cardiovascular, lifestyle and mental health variables. Dementia incidence was 1.88 (95% CI, 1.83-1.93) and 16.53 (95% CI, 16.15-16.92) per 1000 PYAR for those aged 60-79 (n = 6017) and 80-95 years (n = 7104), respectively. Predictors for those aged 60-79 included age, sex, social deprivation, smoking, BMI, heavy alcohol use, anti-hypertensive drugs, diabetes, stroke/TIA, atrial fibrillation, aspirin, depression. The discrimination and calibration of the risk algorithm were good for the 60-79 years model; D statistic 2.03 (95% CI, 1.95-2.11), C index 0.84 (95% CI, 0.81-0.87), and calibration slope 0.98 (95% CI, 0.93-1.02). The algorithm had a high negative predictive value, but lower positive predictive value at most risk thresholds. Discrimination and calibration were poor for the 80-95 years model. Routinely collected data predicts 5-year risk of recorded diagnosis of dementia for those aged 60-79, but not those aged 80+. This

  20. Development of an attrition risk prediction tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fowler, John; Norrie, Peter

    To review lecturers' and students' perceptions of the factors that may lead to attrition from pre-registration nursing and midwifery programmes and to identify ways to reduce the impact of such factors on the student's experience. Comparable attrition rates for nursing and midwifery students across various universities are difficult to monitor accurately; however, estimates that there is approximately a 25% national attrition rate are not uncommon. The financial and human implications of this are significant and worthy of investigation. A study was carried out in one medium-sized UK school of nursing and midwifery, aimed at identifying perceived factors associated with attrition and retention. Thirty-five lecturers were interviewed individually; 605 students completed a questionnaire, and of these, 10 were individually interviewed. Attrition data kept by the student service department were reviewed. Data were collected over an 18-month period in 2007-2008. Regression analysis of the student data identified eight significant predictors. Four of these were 'positive' factors in that they aided student retention and four were 'negative' in that they were associated with students' thoughts of resigning. Student attrition and retention is multifactorial, and, as such, needs to be managed holistically. One aspect of this management could be an attrition risk prediction tool.

  1. 2-Phase NSGA II: An Optimized Reward and Risk Measurements Algorithm in Portfolio Optimization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seyedeh Elham Eftekharian

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Portfolio optimization is a serious challenge for financial engineering and has pulled down special attention among investors. It has two objectives: to maximize the reward that is calculated by expected return and to minimize the risk. Variance has been considered as a risk measure. There are many constraints in the world that ultimately lead to a non–convex search space such as cardinality constraint. In conclusion, parametric quadratic programming could not be applied and it seems essential to apply multi-objective evolutionary algorithm (MOEA. In this paper, a new efficient multi-objective portfolio optimization algorithm called 2-phase NSGA II algorithm is developed and the results of this algorithm are compared with the NSGA II algorithm. It was found that 2-phase NSGA II significantly outperformed NSGA II algorithm.

  2. Screw Remaining Life Prediction Based on Quantum Genetic Algorithm and Support Vector Machine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaochen Zhang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available To predict the remaining life of ball screw, a screw remaining life prediction method based on quantum genetic algorithm (QGA and support vector machine (SVM is proposed. A screw accelerated test bench is introduced. Accelerometers are installed to monitor the performance degradation of ball screw. Combined with wavelet packet decomposition and isometric mapping (Isomap, the sensitive feature vectors are obtained and stored in database. Meanwhile, the sensitive feature vectors are randomly chosen from the database and constitute training samples and testing samples. Then the optimal kernel function parameter and penalty factor of SVM are searched with the method of QGA. Finally, the training samples are used to train optimized SVM while testing samples are adopted to test the prediction accuracy of the trained SVM so the screw remaining life prediction model can be got. The experiment results show that the screw remaining life prediction model could effectively predict screw remaining life.

  3. Comparison of the accuracy of three algorithms in predicting accessory pathways among adult Wolff-Parkinson-White syndrome patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maden, Orhan; Balci, Kevser Gülcihan; Selcuk, Mehmet Timur; Balci, Mustafa Mücahit; Açar, Burak; Unal, Sefa; Kara, Meryem; Selcuk, Hatice

    2015-12-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate the accuracy of three algorithms in predicting accessory pathway locations in adult patients with Wolff-Parkinson-White syndrome in Turkish population. A total of 207 adult patients with Wolff-Parkinson-White syndrome were retrospectively analyzed. The most preexcited 12-lead electrocardiogram in sinus rhythm was used for analysis. Two investigators blinded to the patient data used three algorithms for prediction of accessory pathway location. Among all locations, 48.5% were left-sided, 44% were right-sided, and 7.5% were located in the midseptum or anteroseptum. When only exact locations were accepted as match, predictive accuracy for Chiang was 71.5%, 72.4% for d'Avila, and 71.5% for Arruda. The percentage of predictive accuracy of all algorithms did not differ between the algorithms (p = 1.000; p = 0.875; p = 0.885, respectively). The best algorithm for prediction of right-sided, left-sided, and anteroseptal and midseptal accessory pathways was Arruda (p algorithms were similar in predicting accessory pathway location and the predicted accuracy was lower than previously reported by their authors. However, according to the accessory pathway site, the algorithm designed by Arruda et al. showed better predictions than the other algorithms and using this algorithm may provide advantages before a planned ablation.

  4. Leveraging knowledge from physiological data: on-body heat stress risk prediction with sensor networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaura, Elena; Kemp, John; Brusey, James

    2013-12-01

    The paper demonstrates that wearable sensor systems, coupled with real-time on-body processing and actuation, can enhance safety for wearers of heavy protective equipment who are subjected to harsh thermal environments by reducing risk of Uncompensable Heat Stress (UHS). The work focuses on Explosive Ordnance Disposal operatives and shows that predictions of UHS risk can be performed in real-time with sufficient accuracy for real-world use. Furthermore, it is shown that the required sensory input for such algorithms can be obtained with wearable, non-intrusive sensors. Two algorithms, one based on Bayesian nets and another on decision trees, are presented for determining the heat stress risk, considering the mean skin temperature prediction as a proxy. The algorithms are trained on empirical data and have accuracies of 92.1±2.9% and 94.4±2.1%, respectively when tested using leave-one-subject-out cross-validation. In applications such as Explosive Ordnance Disposal operative monitoring, such prediction algorithms can enable autonomous actuation of cooling systems and haptic alerts to minimize casualties.

  5. Perturbation of convex risk minimization and its application in differential private learning algorithms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Weilin Nie

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Convex risk minimization is a commonly used setting in learning theory. In this paper, we firstly give a perturbation analysis for such algorithms, and then we apply this result to differential private learning algorithms. Our analysis needs the objective functions to be strongly convex. This leads to an extension of our previous analysis to the non-differentiable loss functions, when constructing differential private algorithms. Finally, an error analysis is then provided to show the selection for the parameters.

  6. Genetic algorithm based adaptive neural network ensemble and its application in predicting carbon flux

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Y.; Liu, S.; Hu, Y.; Yang, J.; Chen, Q.

    2007-01-01

    To improve the accuracy in prediction, Genetic Algorithm based Adaptive Neural Network Ensemble (GA-ANNE) is presented. Intersections are allowed between different training sets based on the fuzzy clustering analysis, which ensures the diversity as well as the accuracy of individual Neural Networks (NNs). Moreover, to improve the accuracy of the adaptive weights of individual NNs, GA is used to optimize the cluster centers. Empirical results in predicting carbon flux of Duke Forest reveal that GA-ANNE can predict the carbon flux more accurately than Radial Basis Function Neural Network (RBFNN), Bagging NN ensemble, and ANNE. ?? 2007 IEEE.

  7. Crystal structure prediction of flexible molecules using parallel genetic algorithms with a standard force field.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Seonah; Orendt, Anita M; Ferraro, Marta B; Facelli, Julio C

    2009-10-01

    This article describes the application of our distributed computing framework for crystal structure prediction (CSP) the modified genetic algorithms for crystal and cluster prediction (MGAC), to predict the crystal structure of flexible molecules using the general Amber force field (GAFF) and the CHARMM program. The MGAC distributed computing framework includes a series of tightly integrated computer programs for generating the molecule's force field, sampling crystal structures using a distributed parallel genetic algorithm and local energy minimization of the structures followed by the classifying, sorting, and archiving of the most relevant structures. Our results indicate that the method can consistently find the experimentally known crystal structures of flexible molecules, but the number of missing structures and poor ranking observed in some crystals show the need for further improvement of the potential. Copyright 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  8. Predictive analytics for supply chain collaboration, risk management ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    kirstam

    management, and (2) supply chain risk management predicted financial .... overhead costs, delivery of ever-increasing customer value, flexibility with superior ... risk exposure, relationship longevity, trust and communication are considered as.

  9. Open-source chemogenomic data-driven algorithms for predicting drug-target interactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hao, Ming; Bryant, Stephen H; Wang, Yanli

    2018-02-06

    While novel technologies such as high-throughput screening have advanced together with significant investment by pharmaceutical companies during the past decades, the success rate for drug development has not yet been improved prompting researchers looking for new strategies of drug discovery. Drug repositioning is a potential approach to solve this dilemma. However, experimental identification and validation of potential drug targets encoded by the human genome is both costly and time-consuming. Therefore, effective computational approaches have been proposed to facilitate drug repositioning, which have proved to be successful in drug discovery. Doubtlessly, the availability of open-accessible data from basic chemical biology research and the success of human genome sequencing are crucial to develop effective in silico drug repositioning methods allowing the identification of potential targets for existing drugs. In this work, we review several chemogenomic data-driven computational algorithms with source codes publicly accessible for predicting drug-target interactions (DTIs). We organize these algorithms by model properties and model evolutionary relationships. We re-implemented five representative algorithms in R programming language, and compared these algorithms by means of mean percentile ranking, a new recall-based evaluation metric in the DTI prediction research field. We anticipate that this review will be objective and helpful to researchers who would like to further improve existing algorithms or need to choose appropriate algorithms to infer potential DTIs in the projects. The source codes for DTI predictions are available at: https://github.com/minghao2016/chemogenomicAlg4DTIpred. Published by Oxford University Press 2018. This work is written by US Government employees and is in the public domain in the US.

  10. Elderly fall risk prediction using static posturography

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-01-01

    Maintaining and controlling postural balance is important for activities of daily living, with poor postural balance being predictive of future falls. This study investigated eyes open and eyes closed standing posturography with elderly adults to identify differences and determine appropriate outcome measure cut-off scores for prospective faller, single-faller, multi-faller, and non-faller classifications. 100 older adults (75.5 ± 6.7 years) stood quietly with eyes open and then eyes closed while Wii Balance Board data were collected. Range in anterior-posterior (AP) and medial-lateral (ML) center of pressure (CoP) motion; AP and ML CoP root mean square distance from mean (RMS); and AP, ML, and vector sum magnitude (VSM) CoP velocity were calculated. Romberg Quotients (RQ) were calculated for all parameters. Participants reported six-month fall history and six-month post-assessment fall occurrence. Groups were retrospective fallers (24), prospective all fallers (42), prospective fallers (22 single, 6 multiple), and prospective non-fallers (47). Non-faller RQ AP range and RQ AP RMS differed from prospective all fallers, fallers, and single fallers. Non-faller eyes closed AP velocity, eyes closed VSM velocity, RQ AP velocity, and RQ VSM velocity differed from multi-fallers. RQ calculations were particularly relevant for elderly fall risk assessments. Cut-off scores from Clinical Cut-off Score, ROC curves, and discriminant functions were clinically viable for multi-faller classification and provided better accuracy than single-faller classification. RQ AP range with cut-off score 1.64 could be used to screen for older people who may fall once. Prospective multi-faller classification with a discriminant function (-1.481 + 0.146 x Eyes Closed AP Velocity—0.114 x Eyes Closed Vector Sum Magnitude Velocity—2.027 x RQ AP Velocity + 2.877 x RQ Vector Sum Magnitude Velocity) and cut-off score 0.541 achieved an accuracy of 84.9% and is viable as a screening tool for older

  11. Elderly fall risk prediction using static posturography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howcroft, Jennifer; Lemaire, Edward D; Kofman, Jonathan; McIlroy, William E

    2017-01-01

    Maintaining and controlling postural balance is important for activities of daily living, with poor postural balance being predictive of future falls. This study investigated eyes open and eyes closed standing posturography with elderly adults to identify differences and determine appropriate outcome measure cut-off scores for prospective faller, single-faller, multi-faller, and non-faller classifications. 100 older adults (75.5 ± 6.7 years) stood quietly with eyes open and then eyes closed while Wii Balance Board data were collected. Range in anterior-posterior (AP) and medial-lateral (ML) center of pressure (CoP) motion; AP and ML CoP root mean square distance from mean (RMS); and AP, ML, and vector sum magnitude (VSM) CoP velocity were calculated. Romberg Quotients (RQ) were calculated for all parameters. Participants reported six-month fall history and six-month post-assessment fall occurrence. Groups were retrospective fallers (24), prospective all fallers (42), prospective fallers (22 single, 6 multiple), and prospective non-fallers (47). Non-faller RQ AP range and RQ AP RMS differed from prospective all fallers, fallers, and single fallers. Non-faller eyes closed AP velocity, eyes closed VSM velocity, RQ AP velocity, and RQ VSM velocity differed from multi-fallers. RQ calculations were particularly relevant for elderly fall risk assessments. Cut-off scores from Clinical Cut-off Score, ROC curves, and discriminant functions were clinically viable for multi-faller classification and provided better accuracy than single-faller classification. RQ AP range with cut-off score 1.64 could be used to screen for older people who may fall once. Prospective multi-faller classification with a discriminant function (-1.481 + 0.146 x Eyes Closed AP Velocity-0.114 x Eyes Closed Vector Sum Magnitude Velocity-2.027 x RQ AP Velocity + 2.877 x RQ Vector Sum Magnitude Velocity) and cut-off score 0.541 achieved an accuracy of 84.9% and is viable as a screening tool for older

  12. Elderly fall risk prediction using static posturography.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer Howcroft

    Full Text Available Maintaining and controlling postural balance is important for activities of daily living, with poor postural balance being predictive of future falls. This study investigated eyes open and eyes closed standing posturography with elderly adults to identify differences and determine appropriate outcome measure cut-off scores for prospective faller, single-faller, multi-faller, and non-faller classifications. 100 older adults (75.5 ± 6.7 years stood quietly with eyes open and then eyes closed while Wii Balance Board data were collected. Range in anterior-posterior (AP and medial-lateral (ML center of pressure (CoP motion; AP and ML CoP root mean square distance from mean (RMS; and AP, ML, and vector sum magnitude (VSM CoP velocity were calculated. Romberg Quotients (RQ were calculated for all parameters. Participants reported six-month fall history and six-month post-assessment fall occurrence. Groups were retrospective fallers (24, prospective all fallers (42, prospective fallers (22 single, 6 multiple, and prospective non-fallers (47. Non-faller RQ AP range and RQ AP RMS differed from prospective all fallers, fallers, and single fallers. Non-faller eyes closed AP velocity, eyes closed VSM velocity, RQ AP velocity, and RQ VSM velocity differed from multi-fallers. RQ calculations were particularly relevant for elderly fall risk assessments. Cut-off scores from Clinical Cut-off Score, ROC curves, and discriminant functions were clinically viable for multi-faller classification and provided better accuracy than single-faller classification. RQ AP range with cut-off score 1.64 could be used to screen for older people who may fall once. Prospective multi-faller classification with a discriminant function (-1.481 + 0.146 x Eyes Closed AP Velocity-0.114 x Eyes Closed Vector Sum Magnitude Velocity-2.027 x RQ AP Velocity + 2.877 x RQ Vector Sum Magnitude Velocity and cut-off score 0.541 achieved an accuracy of 84.9% and is viable as a screening tool for

  13. Algorithms

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    algorithm design technique called 'divide-and-conquer'. One of ... Turtle graphics, September. 1996. 5. ... whole list named 'PO' is a pointer to the first element of the list; ..... Program for computing matrices X and Y and placing the result in C *).

  14. Algorithms

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    algorithm that it is implicitly understood that we know how to generate the next natural ..... Explicit comparisons are made in line (1) where maximum and minimum is ... It can be shown that the function T(n) = 3/2n -2 is the solution to the above ...

  15. Assessing Long-Term Wind Conditions by Combining Different Measure-Correlate-Predict Algorithms: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, J.; Chowdhury, S.; Messac, A.; Hodge, B. M.

    2013-08-01

    This paper significantly advances the hybrid measure-correlate-predict (MCP) methodology, enabling it to account for variations of both wind speed and direction. The advanced hybrid MCP method uses the recorded data of multiple reference stations to estimate the long-term wind condition at a target wind plant site. The results show that the accuracy of the hybrid MCP method is highly sensitive to the combination of the individual MCP algorithms and reference stations. It was also found that the best combination of MCP algorithms varies based on the length of the correlation period.

  16. Investigation of a breathing surrogate prediction algorithm for prospective pulmonary gating

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    White, Benjamin M.; Low, Daniel A.; Zhao Tianyu; Wuenschel, Sara; Lu, Wei; Lamb, James M.; Mutic, Sasa; Bradley, Jeffrey D.; El Naqa, Issam

    2011-01-01

    Purpose: A major challenge of four dimensional computed tomography (4DCT) in treatment planning and delivery has been the lack of respiration amplitude and phase reproducibility during image acquisition. The implementation of a prospective gating algorithm would ensure that images would be acquired only during user-specified breathing phases. This study describes the development and testing of an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model for human respiratory phase prediction under quiet respiration conditions. Methods: A total of 47 4DCT patient datasets and synchronized respiration records was utilized in this study. Three datasets were used in model development and were removed from further evaluation of the ARMA model. The remaining 44 patient datasets were evaluated with the ARMA model for prediction time steps from 50 to 1000 ms in increments of 50 and 100 ms. Thirty-five of these datasets were further used to provide a comparison between the proposed ARMA model and a commercial algorithm with a prediction time step of 240 ms. Results: The optimal number of parameters for the ARMA model was based on three datasets reserved for model development. Prediction error was found to increase as the prediction time step increased. The minimum prediction time step required for prospective gating was selected to be half of the gantry rotation period. The maximum prediction time step with a conservative 95% confidence criterion was found to be 0.3 s. The ARMA model predicted peak inhalation and peak exhalation phases significantly better than the commercial algorithm. Furthermore, the commercial algorithm had numerous instances of missed breath cycles and falsely predicted breath cycles, while the proposed model did not have these errors. Conclusions: An ARMA model has been successfully applied to predict human respiratory phase occurrence. For a typical CT scanner gantry rotation period of 0.4 s (0.2 s prediction time step), the absolute error was relatively small, 0

  17. SNBRFinder: A Sequence-Based Hybrid Algorithm for Enhanced Prediction of Nucleic Acid-Binding Residues.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoxia Yang

    Full Text Available Protein-nucleic acid interactions are central to various fundamental biological processes. Automated methods capable of reliably identifying DNA- and RNA-binding residues in protein sequence are assuming ever-increasing importance. The majority of current algorithms rely on feature-based prediction, but their accuracy remains to be further improved. Here we propose a sequence-based hybrid algorithm SNBRFinder (Sequence-based Nucleic acid-Binding Residue Finder by merging a feature predictor SNBRFinderF and a template predictor SNBRFinderT. SNBRFinderF was established using the support vector machine whose inputs include sequence profile and other complementary sequence descriptors, while SNBRFinderT was implemented with the sequence alignment algorithm based on profile hidden Markov models to capture the weakly homologous template of query sequence. Experimental results show that SNBRFinderF was clearly superior to the commonly used sequence profile-based predictor and SNBRFinderT can achieve comparable performance to the structure-based template methods. Leveraging the complementary relationship between these two predictors, SNBRFinder reasonably improved the performance of both DNA- and RNA-binding residue predictions. More importantly, the sequence-based hybrid prediction reached competitive performance relative to our previous structure-based counterpart. Our extensive and stringent comparisons show that SNBRFinder has obvious advantages over the existing sequence-based prediction algorithms. The value of our algorithm is highlighted by establishing an easy-to-use web server that is freely accessible at http://ibi.hzau.edu.cn/SNBRFinder.

  18. Development and validation of a risk model for prediction of hazardous alcohol consumption in general practice attendees: the predictAL study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, Michael; Marston, Louise; Švab, Igor; Maaroos, Heidi-Ingrid; Geerlings, Mirjam I; Xavier, Miguel; Benjamin, Vicente; Torres-Gonzalez, Francisco; Bellon-Saameno, Juan Angel; Rotar, Danica; Aluoja, Anu; Saldivia, Sandra; Correa, Bernardo; Nazareth, Irwin

    2011-01-01

    Little is known about the risk of progression to hazardous alcohol use in people currently drinking at safe limits. We aimed to develop a prediction model (predictAL) for the development of hazardous drinking in safe drinkers. A prospective cohort study of adult general practice attendees in six European countries and Chile followed up over 6 months. We recruited 10,045 attendees between April 2003 to February 2005. 6193 European and 2462 Chilean attendees recorded AUDIT scores below 8 in men and 5 in women at recruitment and were used in modelling risk. 38 risk factors were measured to construct a risk model for the development of hazardous drinking using stepwise logistic regression. The model was corrected for over fitting and tested in an external population. The main outcome was hazardous drinking defined by an AUDIT score ≥8 in men and ≥5 in women. 69.0% of attendees were recruited, of whom 89.5% participated again after six months. The risk factors in the final predictAL model were sex, age, country, baseline AUDIT score, panic syndrome and lifetime alcohol problem. The predictAL model's average c-index across all six European countries was 0.839 (95% CI 0.805, 0.873). The Hedge's g effect size for the difference in log odds of predicted probability between safe drinkers in Europe who subsequently developed hazardous alcohol use and those who did not was 1.38 (95% CI 1.25, 1.51). External validation of the algorithm in Chilean safe drinkers resulted in a c-index of 0.781 (95% CI 0.717, 0.846) and Hedge's g of 0.68 (95% CI 0.57, 0.78). The predictAL risk model for development of hazardous consumption in safe drinkers compares favourably with risk algorithms for disorders in other medical settings and can be a useful first step in prevention of alcohol misuse.

  19. Development and validation of a risk model for prediction of hazardous alcohol consumption in general practice attendees: the predictAL study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael King

    Full Text Available Little is known about the risk of progression to hazardous alcohol use in people currently drinking at safe limits. We aimed to develop a prediction model (predictAL for the development of hazardous drinking in safe drinkers.A prospective cohort study of adult general practice attendees in six European countries and Chile followed up over 6 months. We recruited 10,045 attendees between April 2003 to February 2005. 6193 European and 2462 Chilean attendees recorded AUDIT scores below 8 in men and 5 in women at recruitment and were used in modelling risk. 38 risk factors were measured to construct a risk model for the development of hazardous drinking using stepwise logistic regression. The model was corrected for over fitting and tested in an external population. The main outcome was hazardous drinking defined by an AUDIT score ≥8 in men and ≥5 in women.69.0% of attendees were recruited, of whom 89.5% participated again after six months. The risk factors in the final predictAL model were sex, age, country, baseline AUDIT score, panic syndrome and lifetime alcohol problem. The predictAL model's average c-index across all six European countries was 0.839 (95% CI 0.805, 0.873. The Hedge's g effect size for the difference in log odds of predicted probability between safe drinkers in Europe who subsequently developed hazardous alcohol use and those who did not was 1.38 (95% CI 1.25, 1.51. External validation of the algorithm in Chilean safe drinkers resulted in a c-index of 0.781 (95% CI 0.717, 0.846 and Hedge's g of 0.68 (95% CI 0.57, 0.78.The predictAL risk model for development of hazardous consumption in safe drinkers compares favourably with risk algorithms for disorders in other medical settings and can be a useful first step in prevention of alcohol misuse.

  20. Use of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning Algorithms with Gene Expression Profiling to Predict Recurrent Nonmuscle Invasive Urothelial Carcinoma of the Bladder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartsch, Georg; Mitra, Anirban P; Mitra, Sheetal A; Almal, Arpit A; Steven, Kenneth E; Skinner, Donald G; Fry, David W; Lenehan, Peter F; Worzel, William P; Cote, Richard J

    2016-02-01

    Due to the high recurrence risk of nonmuscle invasive urothelial carcinoma it is crucial to distinguish patients at high risk from those with indolent disease. In this study we used a machine learning algorithm to identify the genes in patients with nonmuscle invasive urothelial carcinoma at initial presentation that were most predictive of recurrence. We used the genes in a molecular signature to predict recurrence risk within 5 years after transurethral resection of bladder tumor. Whole genome profiling was performed on 112 frozen nonmuscle invasive urothelial carcinoma specimens obtained at first presentation on Human WG-6 BeadChips (Illumina®). A genetic programming algorithm was applied to evolve classifier mathematical models for outcome prediction. Cross-validation based resampling and gene use frequencies were used to identify the most prognostic genes, which were combined into rules used in a voting algorithm to predict the sample target class. Key genes were validated by quantitative polymerase chain reaction. The classifier set included 21 genes that predicted recurrence. Quantitative polymerase chain reaction was done for these genes in a subset of 100 patients. A 5-gene combined rule incorporating a voting algorithm yielded 77% sensitivity and 85% specificity to predict recurrence in the training set, and 69% and 62%, respectively, in the test set. A singular 3-gene rule was constructed that predicted recurrence with 80% sensitivity and 90% specificity in the training set, and 71% and 67%, respectively, in the test set. Using primary nonmuscle invasive urothelial carcinoma from initial occurrences genetic programming identified transcripts in reproducible fashion, which were predictive of recurrence. These findings could potentially impact nonmuscle invasive urothelial carcinoma management. Copyright © 2016 American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. TMDIM: an improved algorithm for the structure prediction of transmembrane domains of bitopic dimers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Han; Ng, Marcus C. K.; Jusoh, Siti Azma; Tai, Hio Kuan; Siu, Shirley W. I.

    2017-09-01

    α-Helical transmembrane proteins are the most important drug targets in rational drug development. However, solving the experimental structures of these proteins remains difficult, therefore computational methods to accurately and efficiently predict the structures are in great demand. We present an improved structure prediction method TMDIM based on Park et al. (Proteins 57:577-585, 2004) for predicting bitopic transmembrane protein dimers. Three major algorithmic improvements are introduction of the packing type classification, the multiple-condition decoy filtering, and the cluster-based candidate selection. In a test of predicting nine known bitopic dimers, approximately 78% of our predictions achieved a successful fit (RMSD PHP, MySQL and Apache, with all major browsers supported.

  2. A community effort to assess and improve drug sensitivity prediction algorithms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costello, James C; Heiser, Laura M; Georgii, Elisabeth; Gönen, Mehmet; Menden, Michael P; Wang, Nicholas J; Bansal, Mukesh; Ammad-ud-din, Muhammad; Hintsanen, Petteri; Khan, Suleiman A; Mpindi, John-Patrick; Kallioniemi, Olli; Honkela, Antti; Aittokallio, Tero; Wennerberg, Krister; Collins, James J; Gallahan, Dan; Singer, Dinah; Saez-Rodriguez, Julio; Kaski, Samuel; Gray, Joe W; Stolovitzky, Gustavo

    2014-12-01

    Predicting the best treatment strategy from genomic information is a core goal of precision medicine. Here we focus on predicting drug response based on a cohort of genomic, epigenomic and proteomic profiling data sets measured in human breast cancer cell lines. Through a collaborative effort between the National Cancer Institute (NCI) and the Dialogue on Reverse Engineering Assessment and Methods (DREAM) project, we analyzed a total of 44 drug sensitivity prediction algorithms. The top-performing approaches modeled nonlinear relationships and incorporated biological pathway information. We found that gene expression microarrays consistently provided the best predictive power of the individual profiling data sets; however, performance was increased by including multiple, independent data sets. We discuss the innovations underlying the top-performing methodology, Bayesian multitask MKL, and we provide detailed descriptions of all methods. This study establishes benchmarks for drug sensitivity prediction and identifies approaches that can be leveraged for the development of new methods.

  3. Research on prediction of agricultural machinery total power based on grey model optimized by genetic algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Yan; Li, Mu; Zhou, Jin; Zheng, Chang-zheng

    2009-07-01

    Agricultural machinery total power is an important index to reflex and evaluate the level of agricultural mechanization. It is the power source of agricultural production, and is the main factors to enhance the comprehensive agricultural production capacity expand production scale and increase the income of the farmers. Its demand is affected by natural, economic, technological and social and other "grey" factors. Therefore, grey system theory can be used to analyze the development of agricultural machinery total power. A method based on genetic algorithm optimizing grey modeling process is introduced in this paper. This method makes full use of the advantages of the grey prediction model and characteristics of genetic algorithm to find global optimization. So the prediction model is more accurate. According to data from a province, the GM (1, 1) model for predicting agricultural machinery total power was given based on the grey system theories and genetic algorithm. The result indicates that the model can be used as agricultural machinery total power an effective tool for prediction.

  4. Small hydropower spot prediction using SWAT and a diversion algorithm, case study: Upper Citarum Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kardhana, Hadi; Arya, Doni Khaira; Hadihardaja, Iwan K.; Widyaningtyas, Riawan, Edi; Lubis, Atika

    2017-11-01

    Small-Scale Hydropower (SHP) had been important electric energy power source in Indonesia. Indonesia is vast countries, consists of more than 17.000 islands. It has large fresh water resource about 3 m of rainfall and 2 m of runoff. Much of its topography is mountainous, remote but abundant with potential energy. Millions of people do not have sufficient access to electricity, some live in the remote places. Recently, SHP development was encouraged for energy supply of the places. Development of global hydrology data provides opportunity to predict distribution of hydropower potential. In this paper, we demonstrate run-of-river type SHP spot prediction tool using SWAT and a river diversion algorithm. The use of Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) with input of CFSR (Climate Forecast System Re-analysis) of 10 years period had been implemented to predict spatially distributed flow cumulative distribution function (CDF). A simple algorithm to maximize potential head of a location by a river diversion expressing head race and penstock had been applied. Firm flow and power of the SHP were estimated from the CDF and the algorithm. The tool applied to Upper Citarum River Basin and three out of four existing hydropower locations had been well predicted. The result implies that this tool is able to support acceleration of SHP development at earlier phase.

  5. A novel risk score to predict cardiovascular disease risk in national populations (Globorisk)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hajifathalian, Kaveh; Ueda, Peter; Lu, Yuan

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Treatment of cardiovascular risk factors based on disease risk depends on valid risk prediction equations. We aimed to develop, and apply in example countries, a risk prediction equation for cardiovascular disease (consisting here of coronary heart disease and stroke) that can be reca...

  6. Algorithms

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    will become clear in the next article when we discuss a simple logo like programming language. ... Rod B may be used as an auxiliary store. The problem is to find an algorithm which performs this task. ... No disks are moved from A to Busing C as auxiliary rod. • move _disk (A, C);. (No + l)th disk is moved from A to C directly ...

  7. Real time implementation of a linear predictive coding algorithm on digital signal processor DSP32C

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sheikh, N.M.; Usman, S.R.; Fatima, S.

    2002-01-01

    Pulse Code Modulation (PCM) has been widely used in speech coding. However, due to its high bit rate. PCM has severe limitations in application where high spectral efficiency is desired, for example, in mobile communication, CD quality broadcasting system etc. These limitation have motivated research in bit rate reduction techniques. Linear predictive coding (LPC) is one of the most powerful complex techniques for bit rate reduction. With the introduction of powerful digital signal processors (DSP) it is possible to implement the complex LPC algorithm in real time. In this paper we present a real time implementation of the LPC algorithm on AT and T's DSP32C at a sampling frequency of 8192 HZ. Application of the LPC algorithm on two speech signals is discussed. Using this implementation , a bit rate reduction of 1:3 is achieved for better than tool quality speech, while a reduction of 1.16 is possible for speech quality required in military applications. (author)

  8. The efficiency of the RULES-4 classification learning algorithm in predicting the density of agents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ziad Salem

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Learning is the act of obtaining new or modifying existing knowledge, behaviours, skills or preferences. The ability to learn is found in humans, other organisms and some machines. Learning is always based on some sort of observations or data such as examples, direct experience or instruction. This paper presents a classification algorithm to learn the density of agents in an arena based on the measurements of six proximity sensors of a combined actuator sensor units (CASUs. Rules are presented that were induced by the learning algorithm that was trained with data-sets based on the CASU’s sensor data streams collected during a number of experiments with “Bristlebots (agents in the arena (environment”. It was found that a set of rules generated by the learning algorithm is able to predict the number of bristlebots in the arena based on the CASU’s sensor readings with satisfying accuracy.

  9. Artificial Neural Network and Genetic Algorithm Hybrid Intelligence for Predicting Thai Stock Price Index Trend

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Montri Inthachot

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This study investigated the use of Artificial Neural Network (ANN and Genetic Algorithm (GA for prediction of Thailand’s SET50 index trend. ANN is a widely accepted machine learning method that uses past data to predict future trend, while GA is an algorithm that can find better subsets of input variables for importing into ANN, hence enabling more accurate prediction by its efficient feature selection. The imported data were chosen technical indicators highly regarded by stock analysts, each represented by 4 input variables that were based on past time spans of 4 different lengths: 3-, 5-, 10-, and 15-day spans before the day of prediction. This import undertaking generated a big set of diverse input variables with an exponentially higher number of possible subsets that GA culled down to a manageable number of more effective ones. SET50 index data of the past 6 years, from 2009 to 2014, were used to evaluate this hybrid intelligence prediction accuracy, and the hybrid’s prediction results were found to be more accurate than those made by a method using only one input variable for one fixed length of past time span.

  10. Artificial Neural Network and Genetic Algorithm Hybrid Intelligence for Predicting Thai Stock Price Index Trend

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boonjing, Veera; Intakosum, Sarun

    2016-01-01

    This study investigated the use of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Genetic Algorithm (GA) for prediction of Thailand's SET50 index trend. ANN is a widely accepted machine learning method that uses past data to predict future trend, while GA is an algorithm that can find better subsets of input variables for importing into ANN, hence enabling more accurate prediction by its efficient feature selection. The imported data were chosen technical indicators highly regarded by stock analysts, each represented by 4 input variables that were based on past time spans of 4 different lengths: 3-, 5-, 10-, and 15-day spans before the day of prediction. This import undertaking generated a big set of diverse input variables with an exponentially higher number of possible subsets that GA culled down to a manageable number of more effective ones. SET50 index data of the past 6 years, from 2009 to 2014, were used to evaluate this hybrid intelligence prediction accuracy, and the hybrid's prediction results were found to be more accurate than those made by a method using only one input variable for one fixed length of past time span. PMID:27974883

  11. A computational environment for long-term multi-feature and multi-algorithm seizure prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teixeira, C A; Direito, B; Costa, R P; Valderrama, M; Feldwisch-Drentrup, H; Nikolopoulos, S; Le Van Quyen, M; Schelter, B; Dourado, A

    2010-01-01

    The daily life of epilepsy patients is constrained by the possibility of occurrence of seizures. Until now, seizures cannot be predicted with sufficient sensitivity and specificity. Most of the seizure prediction studies have been focused on a small number of patients, and frequently assuming unrealistic hypothesis. This paper adopts the view that for an appropriate development of reliable predictors one should consider long-term recordings and several features and algorithms integrated in one software tool. A computational environment, based on Matlab (®), is presented, aiming to be an innovative tool for seizure prediction. It results from the need of a powerful and flexible tool for long-term EEG/ECG analysis by multiple features and algorithms. After being extracted, features can be subjected to several reduction and selection methods, and then used for prediction. The predictions can be conducted based on optimized thresholds or by applying computational intelligence methods. One important aspect is the integrated evaluation of the seizure prediction characteristic of the developed predictors.

  12. Analysis of energy-based algorithms for RNA secondary structure prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hajiaghayi Monir

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background RNA molecules play critical roles in the cells of organisms, including roles in gene regulation, catalysis, and synthesis of proteins. Since RNA function depends in large part on its folded structures, much effort has been invested in developing accurate methods for prediction of RNA secondary structure from the base sequence. Minimum free energy (MFE predictions are widely used, based on nearest neighbor thermodynamic parameters of Mathews, Turner et al. or those of Andronescu et al. Some recently proposed alternatives that leverage partition function calculations find the structure with maximum expected accuracy (MEA or pseudo-expected accuracy (pseudo-MEA methods. Advances in prediction methods are typically benchmarked using sensitivity, positive predictive value and their harmonic mean, namely F-measure, on datasets of known reference structures. Since such benchmarks document progress in improving accuracy of computational prediction methods, it is important to understand how measures of accuracy vary as a function of the reference datasets and whether advances in algorithms or thermodynamic parameters yield statistically significant improvements. Our work advances such understanding for the MFE and (pseudo-MEA-based methods, with respect to the latest datasets and energy parameters. Results We present three main findings. First, using the bootstrap percentile method, we show that the average F-measure accuracy of the MFE and (pseudo-MEA-based algorithms, as measured on our largest datasets with over 2000 RNAs from diverse families, is a reliable estimate (within a 2% range with high confidence of the accuracy of a population of RNA molecules represented by this set. However, average accuracy on smaller classes of RNAs such as a class of 89 Group I introns used previously in benchmarking algorithm accuracy is not reliable enough to draw meaningful conclusions about the relative merits of the MFE and MEA-based algorithms

  13. EM algorithm for one-shot device testing with competing risks under exponential distribution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Balakrishnan, N.; So, H.Y.; Ling, M.H.

    2015-01-01

    This paper provides an extension of the work of Balakrishnan and Ling [1] by introducing a competing risks model into a one-shot device testing analysis under an accelerated life test setting. An Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm is then developed for the estimation of the model parameters. An extensive Monte Carlo simulation study is carried out to assess the performance of the EM algorithm and then compare the obtained results with the initial estimates obtained by the Inequality Constrained Least Squares (ICLS) method of estimation. Finally, we apply the EM algorithm to a clinical data, ED01, to illustrate the method of inference developed here. - Highlights: • ALT data analysis for one-shot devices with competing risks is considered. • EM algorithm is developed for the determination of the MLEs. • The estimations of lifetime under normal operating conditions are presented. • The EM algorithm improves the convergence rate

  14. Drug response prediction in high-risk multiple myeloma

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vangsted, A J; Helm-Petersen, S; Cowland, J B

    2018-01-01

    from high-risk patients by GEP70 at diagnosis from Total Therapy 2 and 3A to predict the response by the DRP score of drugs used in the treatment of myeloma patients. The DRP score stratified patients further. High-risk myeloma with a predicted sensitivity to melphalan by the DRP score had a prolonged...

  15. Risk stratification in upper gastrointestinal bleeding; prediction, prevention and prognosis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Groot, N.L.

    2013-01-01

    In the first part of this thesis we developed a novel prediction score for predicting upper gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding in both NSAID and low-dose aspirin users. Both for NSAIDs and low-dose aspirin use risk scores were developed by identifying the five most dominant predictors. The risk of upper

  16. Multi-agent cooperation rescue algorithm based on influence degree and state prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Yanbin; Ma, Guangfu; Wang, Linlin; Xi, Pengxue

    2018-04-01

    Aiming at the multi-agent cooperative rescue in disaster, a multi-agent cooperative rescue algorithm based on impact degree and state prediction is proposed. Firstly, based on the influence of the information in the scene on the collaborative task, the influence degree function is used to filter the information. Secondly, using the selected information to predict the state of the system and Agent behavior. Finally, according to the result of the forecast, the cooperative behavior of Agent is guided and improved the efficiency of individual collaboration. The simulation results show that this algorithm can effectively solve the cooperative rescue problem of multi-agent and ensure the efficient completion of the task.

  17. Training algorithms evaluation for artificial neural network to temporal prediction of photovoltaic generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arantes Monteiro, Raul Vitor; Caixeta Guimarães, Geraldo; Rocio Castillo, Madeleine; Matheus Moura, Fabrício Augusto; Tamashiro, Márcio Augusto

    2016-01-01

    Current energy policies are encouraging the connection of power generation based on low-polluting technologies, mainly those using renewable sources, to distribution networks. Hence, it becomes increasingly important to understand technical challenges, facing high penetration of PV systems at the grid, especially considering the effects of intermittence of this source on the power quality, reliability and stability of the electric distribution system. This fact can affect the distribution networks on which they are attached causing overvoltage, undervoltage and frequency oscillations. In order to predict these disturbs, artificial neural networks are used. This article aims to analyze 3 training algorithms used in artificial neural networks for temporal prediction of the generated active power thru photovoltaic panels. As a result it was concluded that the algorithm with the best performance among the 3 analyzed was the Levenberg-Marquadrt.

  18. Artificial Fish Swarm Algorithm-Based Particle Filter for Li-Ion Battery Life Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ye Tian

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available An intelligent online prognostic approach is proposed for predicting the remaining useful life (RUL of lithium-ion (Li-ion batteries based on artificial fish swarm algorithm (AFSA and particle filter (PF, which is an integrated approach combining model-based method with data-driven method. The parameters, used in the empirical model which is based on the capacity fade trends of Li-ion batteries, are identified dependent on the tracking ability of PF. AFSA-PF aims to improve the performance of the basic PF. By driving the prior particles to the domain with high likelihood, AFSA-PF allows global optimization, prevents particle degeneracy, thereby improving particle distribution and increasing prediction accuracy and algorithm convergence. Data provided by NASA are used to verify this approach and compare it with basic PF and regularized PF. AFSA-PF is shown to be more accurate and precise.

  19. HKC: An Algorithm to Predict Protein Complexes in Protein-Protein Interaction Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaomin Wang

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available With the availability of more and more genome-scale protein-protein interaction (PPI networks, research interests gradually shift to Systematic Analysis on these large data sets. A key topic is to predict protein complexes in PPI networks by identifying clusters that are densely connected within themselves but sparsely connected with the rest of the network. In this paper, we present a new topology-based algorithm, HKC, to detect protein complexes in genome-scale PPI networks. HKC mainly uses the concepts of highest k-core and cohesion to predict protein complexes by identifying overlapping clusters. The experiments on two data sets and two benchmarks show that our algorithm has relatively high F-measure and exhibits better performance compared with some other methods.

  20. Prediction of Tibial Rotation Pathologies Using Particle Swarm Optimization and K-Means Algorithms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sari, Murat; Tuna, Can; Akogul, Serkan

    2018-03-28

    The aim of this article is to investigate pathological subjects from a population through different physical factors. To achieve this, particle swarm optimization (PSO) and K-means (KM) clustering algorithms have been combined (PSO-KM). Datasets provided by the literature were divided into three clusters based on age and weight parameters and each one of right tibial external rotation (RTER), right tibial internal rotation (RTIR), left tibial external rotation (LTER), and left tibial internal rotation (LTIR) values were divided into three types as Type 1, Type 2 and Type 3 (Type 2 is non-pathological (normal) and the other two types are pathological (abnormal)), respectively. The rotation values of every subject in any cluster were noted. Then the algorithm was run and the produced values were also considered. The values of the produced algorithm, the PSO-KM, have been compared with the real values. The hybrid PSO-KM algorithm has been very successful on the optimal clustering of the tibial rotation types through the physical criteria. In this investigation, Type 2 (pathological subjects) is of especially high predictability and the PSO-KM algorithm has been very successful as an operation system for clustering and optimizing the tibial motion data assessments. These research findings are expected to be very useful for health providers, such as physiotherapists, orthopedists, and so on, in which this consequence may help clinicians to appropriately designing proper treatment schedules for patients.

  1. A Regression-based K nearest neighbor algorithm for gene function prediction from heterogeneous data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruzzo Walter L

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background As a variety of functional genomic and proteomic techniques become available, there is an increasing need for functional analysis methodologies that integrate heterogeneous data sources. Methods In this paper, we address this issue by proposing a general framework for gene function prediction based on the k-nearest-neighbor (KNN algorithm. The choice of KNN is motivated by its simplicity, flexibility to incorporate different data types and adaptability to irregular feature spaces. A weakness of traditional KNN methods, especially when handling heterogeneous data, is that performance is subject to the often ad hoc choice of similarity metric. To address this weakness, we apply regression methods to infer a similarity metric as a weighted combination of a set of base similarity measures, which helps to locate the neighbors that are most likely to be in the same class as the target gene. We also suggest a novel voting scheme to generate confidence scores that estimate the accuracy of predictions. The method gracefully extends to multi-way classification problems. Results We apply this technique to gene function prediction according to three well-known Escherichia coli classification schemes suggested by biologists, using information derived from microarray and genome sequencing data. We demonstrate that our algorithm dramatically outperforms the naive KNN methods and is competitive with support vector machine (SVM algorithms for integrating heterogenous data. We also show that by combining different data sources, prediction accuracy can improve significantly. Conclusion Our extension of KNN with automatic feature weighting, multi-class prediction, and probabilistic inference, enhance prediction accuracy significantly while remaining efficient, intuitive and flexible. This general framework can also be applied to similar classification problems involving heterogeneous datasets.

  2. Solar Flare Prediction Model with Three Machine-learning Algorithms using Ultraviolet Brightening and Vector Magnetograms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nishizuka, N.; Sugiura, K.; Kubo, Y.; Den, M.; Watari, S.; Ishii, M.

    2017-02-01

    We developed a flare prediction model using machine learning, which is optimized to predict the maximum class of flares occurring in the following 24 hr. Machine learning is used to devise algorithms that can learn from and make decisions on a huge amount of data. We used solar observation data during the period 2010-2015, such as vector magnetograms, ultraviolet (UV) emission, and soft X-ray emission taken by the Solar Dynamics Observatory and the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite. We detected active regions (ARs) from the full-disk magnetogram, from which ˜60 features were extracted with their time differentials, including magnetic neutral lines, the current helicity, the UV brightening, and the flare history. After standardizing the feature database, we fully shuffled and randomly separated it into two for training and testing. To investigate which algorithm is best for flare prediction, we compared three machine-learning algorithms: the support vector machine, k-nearest neighbors (k-NN), and extremely randomized trees. The prediction score, the true skill statistic, was higher than 0.9 with a fully shuffled data set, which is higher than that for human forecasts. It was found that k-NN has the highest performance among the three algorithms. The ranking of the feature importance showed that previous flare activity is most effective, followed by the length of magnetic neutral lines, the unsigned magnetic flux, the area of UV brightening, and the time differentials of features over 24 hr, all of which are strongly correlated with the flux emergence dynamics in an AR.

  3. Solar Flare Prediction Model with Three Machine-learning Algorithms using Ultraviolet Brightening and Vector Magnetograms

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nishizuka, N.; Kubo, Y.; Den, M.; Watari, S.; Ishii, M. [Applied Electromagnetic Research Institute, National Institute of Information and Communications Technology, 4-2-1, Nukui-Kitamachi, Koganei, Tokyo 184-8795 (Japan); Sugiura, K., E-mail: nishizuka.naoto@nict.go.jp [Advanced Speech Translation Research and Development Promotion Center, National Institute of Information and Communications Technology (Japan)

    2017-02-01

    We developed a flare prediction model using machine learning, which is optimized to predict the maximum class of flares occurring in the following 24 hr. Machine learning is used to devise algorithms that can learn from and make decisions on a huge amount of data. We used solar observation data during the period 2010–2015, such as vector magnetograms, ultraviolet (UV) emission, and soft X-ray emission taken by the Solar Dynamics Observatory and the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite . We detected active regions (ARs) from the full-disk magnetogram, from which ∼60 features were extracted with their time differentials, including magnetic neutral lines, the current helicity, the UV brightening, and the flare history. After standardizing the feature database, we fully shuffled and randomly separated it into two for training and testing. To investigate which algorithm is best for flare prediction, we compared three machine-learning algorithms: the support vector machine, k-nearest neighbors (k-NN), and extremely randomized trees. The prediction score, the true skill statistic, was higher than 0.9 with a fully shuffled data set, which is higher than that for human forecasts. It was found that k-NN has the highest performance among the three algorithms. The ranking of the feature importance showed that previous flare activity is most effective, followed by the length of magnetic neutral lines, the unsigned magnetic flux, the area of UV brightening, and the time differentials of features over 24 hr, all of which are strongly correlated with the flux emergence dynamics in an AR.

  4. Solar Flare Prediction Model with Three Machine-learning Algorithms using Ultraviolet Brightening and Vector Magnetograms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nishizuka, N.; Kubo, Y.; Den, M.; Watari, S.; Ishii, M.; Sugiura, K.

    2017-01-01

    We developed a flare prediction model using machine learning, which is optimized to predict the maximum class of flares occurring in the following 24 hr. Machine learning is used to devise algorithms that can learn from and make decisions on a huge amount of data. We used solar observation data during the period 2010–2015, such as vector magnetograms, ultraviolet (UV) emission, and soft X-ray emission taken by the Solar Dynamics Observatory and the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite . We detected active regions (ARs) from the full-disk magnetogram, from which ∼60 features were extracted with their time differentials, including magnetic neutral lines, the current helicity, the UV brightening, and the flare history. After standardizing the feature database, we fully shuffled and randomly separated it into two for training and testing. To investigate which algorithm is best for flare prediction, we compared three machine-learning algorithms: the support vector machine, k-nearest neighbors (k-NN), and extremely randomized trees. The prediction score, the true skill statistic, was higher than 0.9 with a fully shuffled data set, which is higher than that for human forecasts. It was found that k-NN has the highest performance among the three algorithms. The ranking of the feature importance showed that previous flare activity is most effective, followed by the length of magnetic neutral lines, the unsigned magnetic flux, the area of UV brightening, and the time differentials of features over 24 hr, all of which are strongly correlated with the flux emergence dynamics in an AR.

  5. Predictive Control of Hydronic Floor Heating Systems using Neural Networks and Genetic Algorithms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vinther, Kasper; Green, Torben; Østergaard, Søren

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents the use a neural network and a micro genetic algorithm to optimize future set-points in existing hydronic floor heating systems for improved energy efficiency. The neural network can be trained to predict the impact of changes in set-points on future room temperatures. Additio...... space is not guaranteed. Evaluation of the performance of multiple neural networks is performed, using different levels of information, and optimization results are presented on a detailed house simulation model....

  6. The novel EuroSCORE II algorithm predicts the hospital mortality of thoracic aortic surgery in 461 consecutive Japanese patients better than both the original additive and logistic EuroSCORE algorithms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nishida, Takahiro; Sonoda, Hiromichi; Oishi, Yasuhisa; Tanoue, Yoshihisa; Nakashima, Atsuhiro; Shiokawa, Yuichi; Tominaga, Ryuji

    2014-04-01

    The European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) II was developed to improve the overestimation of surgical risk associated with the original (additive and logistic) EuroSCOREs. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the significance of the EuroSCORE II by comparing its performance with that of the original EuroSCOREs in Japanese patients undergoing surgery on the thoracic aorta. We have calculated the predicted mortalities according to the additive EuroSCORE, logistic EuroSCORE and EuroSCORE II algorithms in 461 patients who underwent surgery on the thoracic aorta during a period of 20 years (1993-2013). The actual in-hospital mortality rates in the low- (additive EuroSCORE of 3-6), moderate- (7-11) and high-risk (≥11) groups (followed by overall mortality) were 1.3, 6.2 and 14.4% (7.2% overall), respectively. Among the three different risk groups, the expected mortality rates were 5.5 ± 0.6, 9.1 ± 0.7 and 13.5 ± 0.2% (9.5 ± 0.1% overall) by the additive EuroSCORE algorithm, 5.3 ± 0.1, 16 ± 0.4 and 42.4 ± 1.3% (19.9 ± 0.7% overall) by the logistic EuroSCORE algorithm and 1.6 ± 0.1, 5.2 ± 0.2 and 18.5 ± 1.3% (7.4 ± 0.4% overall) by the EuroSCORE II algorithm, indicating poor prediction (P algorithms were 0.6937, 0.7169 and 0.7697, respectively. Thus, the mortality expected by the EuroSCORE II more closely matched the actual mortality in all three risk groups. In contrast, the mortality expected by the logistic EuroSCORE overestimated the risks in the moderate- (P = 0.0002) and high-risk (P < 0.0001) patient groups. Although all of the original EuroSCOREs and EuroSCORE II appreciably predicted the surgical mortality for thoracic aortic surgery in Japanese patients, the EuroSCORE II best predicted the mortalities in all risk groups.

  7. On the best learning algorithm for web services response time prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henrik; Albu, Razvan-Daniel; Popentiu-Vladicescu, Florin

    2013-01-01

    In this article we will examine the effect of different learning algorithms, while training the MLP (Multilayer Perceptron) with the intention of predicting web services response time. Web services do not necessitate a user interface. This may seem contradictory to most people's concept of what...... an application is. A Web service is better imagined as an application "segment," or better as a program enabler. Performance is an important quality aspect of Web services because of their distributed nature. Predicting the response of web services during their operation is very important....

  8. The fatigue life prediction of aluminium alloy using genetic algorithm and neural network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Susmikanti, Mike

    2013-09-01

    The behavior of the fatigue life of the industrial materials is very important. In many cases, the material with experiencing fatigue life cannot be avoided, however, there are many ways to control their behavior. Many investigations of the fatigue life phenomena of alloys have been done, but it is high cost and times consuming computation. This paper report the modeling and simulation approaches to predict the fatigue life behavior of Aluminum Alloys and resolves some problems of computation. First, the simulation using genetic algorithm was utilized to optimize the load to obtain the stress values. These results can be used to provide N-cycle fatigue life of the material. Furthermore, the experimental data was applied as input data in the neural network learning, while the samples data were applied for testing of the training data. Finally, the multilayer perceptron algorithm is applied to predict whether the given data sets in accordance with the fatigue life of the alloy. To achieve rapid convergence, the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm was also employed. The simulations results shows that the fatigue behaviors of aluminum under pressure can be predicted. In addition, implementation of neural networks successfully identified a model for material fatigue life.

  9. Predictability of cardiovascular risks by psychological measures

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Šolcová, Iva; Kebza, V.

    2008-01-01

    Roč. 23, č. 1 (2008), s. 241-241 ISSN 0887-0446 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA406/06/0747 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70250504 Keywords : CVD risks * psychological measures * physiological risks Subject RIV: AN - Psychology

  10. Predicting risk of cancer during HIV infection

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Borges, Álvaro H; Silverberg, Michael J; Wentworth, Deborah

    2013-01-01

    To investigate the relationship between inflammatory [interleukin-6 (IL-6) and C-reactive protein (CRP)] and coagulation (D-dimer) biomarkers and cancer risk during HIV infection.......To investigate the relationship between inflammatory [interleukin-6 (IL-6) and C-reactive protein (CRP)] and coagulation (D-dimer) biomarkers and cancer risk during HIV infection....

  11. Open source machine-learning algorithms for the prediction of optimal cancer drug therapies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Cai; Mezencev, Roman; McDonald, John F; Vannberg, Fredrik

    2017-01-01

    Precision medicine is a rapidly growing area of modern medical science and open source machine-learning codes promise to be a critical component for the successful development of standardized and automated analysis of patient data. One important goal of precision cancer medicine is the accurate prediction of optimal drug therapies from the genomic profiles of individual patient tumors. We introduce here an open source software platform that employs a highly versatile support vector machine (SVM) algorithm combined with a standard recursive feature elimination (RFE) approach to predict personalized drug responses from gene expression profiles. Drug specific models were built using gene expression and drug response data from the National Cancer Institute panel of 60 human cancer cell lines (NCI-60). The models are highly accurate in predicting the drug responsiveness of a variety of cancer cell lines including those comprising the recent NCI-DREAM Challenge. We demonstrate that predictive accuracy is optimized when the learning dataset utilizes all probe-set expression values from a diversity of cancer cell types without pre-filtering for genes generally considered to be "drivers" of cancer onset/progression. Application of our models to publically available ovarian cancer (OC) patient gene expression datasets generated predictions consistent with observed responses previously reported in the literature. By making our algorithm "open source", we hope to facilitate its testing in a variety of cancer types and contexts leading to community-driven improvements and refinements in subsequent applications.

  12. Open source machine-learning algorithms for the prediction of optimal cancer drug therapies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cai Huang

    Full Text Available Precision medicine is a rapidly growing area of modern medical science and open source machine-learning codes promise to be a critical component for the successful development of standardized and automated analysis of patient data. One important goal of precision cancer medicine is the accurate prediction of optimal drug therapies from the genomic profiles of individual patient tumors. We introduce here an open source software platform that employs a highly versatile support vector machine (SVM algorithm combined with a standard recursive feature elimination (RFE approach to predict personalized drug responses from gene expression profiles. Drug specific models were built using gene expression and drug response data from the National Cancer Institute panel of 60 human cancer cell lines (NCI-60. The models are highly accurate in predicting the drug responsiveness of a variety of cancer cell lines including those comprising the recent NCI-DREAM Challenge. We demonstrate that predictive accuracy is optimized when the learning dataset utilizes all probe-set expression values from a diversity of cancer cell types without pre-filtering for genes generally considered to be "drivers" of cancer onset/progression. Application of our models to publically available ovarian cancer (OC patient gene expression datasets generated predictions consistent with observed responses previously reported in the literature. By making our algorithm "open source", we hope to facilitate its testing in a variety of cancer types and contexts leading to community-driven improvements and refinements in subsequent applications.

  13. Global Variance Risk Premium and Forex Return Predictability

    OpenAIRE

    Aloosh, Arash

    2014-01-01

    In a long-run risk model with stochastic volatility and frictionless markets, I express expected forex returns as a function of consumption growth variances and stock variance risk premiums (VRPs)—the difference between the risk-neutral and statistical expectations of market return variation. This provides a motivation for using the forward-looking information available in stock market volatility indices to predict forex returns. Empirically, I find that stock VRPs predict forex returns at a ...

  14. Risk Prediction Model for Severe Postoperative Complication in Bariatric Surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stenberg, Erik; Cao, Yang; Szabo, Eva; Näslund, Erik; Näslund, Ingmar; Ottosson, Johan

    2018-01-12

    Factors associated with risk for adverse outcome are important considerations in the preoperative assessment of patients for bariatric surgery. As yet, prediction models based on preoperative risk factors have not been able to predict adverse outcome sufficiently. This study aimed to identify preoperative risk factors and to construct a risk prediction model based on these. Patients who underwent a bariatric surgical procedure in Sweden between 2010 and 2014 were identified from the Scandinavian Obesity Surgery Registry (SOReg). Associations between preoperative potential risk factors and severe postoperative complications were analysed using a logistic regression model. A multivariate model for risk prediction was created and validated in the SOReg for patients who underwent bariatric surgery in Sweden, 2015. Revision surgery (standardized OR 1.19, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.14-0.24, p prediction model. Despite high specificity, the sensitivity of the model was low. Revision surgery, high age, low BMI, large waist circumference, and dyspepsia/GERD were associated with an increased risk for severe postoperative complication. The prediction model based on these factors, however, had a sensitivity that was too low to predict risk in the individual patient case.

  15. A New Tool for CME Arrival Time Prediction using Machine Learning Algorithms: CAT-PUMA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jiajia; Ye, Yudong; Shen, Chenglong; Wang, Yuming; Erdélyi, Robert

    2018-03-01

    Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are arguably the most violent eruptions in the solar system. CMEs can cause severe disturbances in interplanetary space and can even affect human activities in many aspects, causing damage to infrastructure and loss of revenue. Fast and accurate prediction of CME arrival time is vital to minimize the disruption that CMEs may cause when interacting with geospace. In this paper, we propose a new approach for partial-/full halo CME Arrival Time Prediction Using Machine learning Algorithms (CAT-PUMA). Via detailed analysis of the CME features and solar-wind parameters, we build a prediction engine taking advantage of 182 previously observed geo-effective partial-/full halo CMEs and using algorithms of the Support Vector Machine. We demonstrate that CAT-PUMA is accurate and fast. In particular, predictions made after applying CAT-PUMA to a test set unknown to the engine show a mean absolute prediction error of ∼5.9 hr within the CME arrival time, with 54% of the predictions having absolute errors less than 5.9 hr. Comparisons with other models reveal that CAT-PUMA has a more accurate prediction for 77% of the events investigated that can be carried out very quickly, i.e., within minutes of providing the necessary input parameters of a CME. A practical guide containing the CAT-PUMA engine and the source code of two examples are available in the Appendix, allowing the community to perform their own applications for prediction using CAT-PUMA.

  16. Parametric study on the advantages of weather-predicted control algorithm of free cooling ventilation system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Medved, Sašo; Babnik, Miha; Vidrih, Boris; Arkar, Ciril

    2014-01-01

    Predicted climate changes and the increased intensity of urban heat islands, as well as population aging, will increase the energy demand for the cooling of buildings in the future. However, the energy demand for cooling can be efficiently reduced by low-exergy free-cooling systems, which use natural processes, like evaporative cooling or the environmental cold of ambient air during night-time ventilation for the cooling of buildings. Unlike mechanical cooling systems, the energy for the operation of free-cooling system is needed only for the transport of the cold from the environment into the building. Because the natural cold potential is time dependent, the efficiency of free-cooling systems could be improved by introducing a weather forecast into the algorithm for the controlling. In the article, a numerical algorithm for the optimization of the operation of free-cooling systems with night-time ventilation is presented and validated on a test cell with different thermal storage capacities and during different ambient conditions. As a case study, the advantage of weather-predicted controlling is presented for a summer week for typical office room. The results show the necessity of the weather-predicted controlling of free-cooling ventilation systems for achieving the highest overall energy efficiency of such systems in comparison to mechanical cooling, better indoor comfort conditions and a decrease in the primary energy needed for cooling of the buildings. - Highlights: • Energy demand for cooling will increase due to climate changes and urban heat island • Free cooling could significantly reduce energy demand for cooling of the buildings. • Free cooling is more effective if weather prediction is included in operation control. • Weather predicted free cooling operation algorithm was validated on test cell. • Advantages of free-cooling on mechanical cooling is shown with different indicators

  17. MED: a new non-supervised gene prediction algorithm for bacterial and archaeal genomes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang Yi-Fan

    2007-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Despite a remarkable success in the computational prediction of genes in Bacteria and Archaea, a lack of comprehensive understanding of prokaryotic gene structures prevents from further elucidation of differences among genomes. It continues to be interesting to develop new ab initio algorithms which not only accurately predict genes, but also facilitate comparative studies of prokaryotic genomes. Results This paper describes a new prokaryotic genefinding algorithm based on a comprehensive statistical model of protein coding Open Reading Frames (ORFs and Translation Initiation Sites (TISs. The former is based on a linguistic "Entropy Density Profile" (EDP model of coding DNA sequence and the latter comprises several relevant features related to the translation initiation. They are combined to form a so-called Multivariate Entropy Distance (MED algorithm, MED 2.0, that incorporates several strategies in the iterative program. The iterations enable us to develop a non-supervised learning process and to obtain a set of genome-specific parameters for the gene structure, before making the prediction of genes. Conclusion Results of extensive tests show that MED 2.0 achieves a competitive high performance in the gene prediction for both 5' and 3' end matches, compared to the current best prokaryotic gene finders. The advantage of the MED 2.0 is particularly evident for GC-rich genomes and archaeal genomes. Furthermore, the genome-specific parameters given by MED 2.0 match with the current understanding of prokaryotic genomes and may serve as tools for comparative genomic studies. In particular, MED 2.0 is shown to reveal divergent translation initiation mechanisms in archaeal genomes while making a more accurate prediction of TISs compared to the existing gene finders and the current GenBank annotation.

  18. Application of Genetic Algorithm to Predict Optimal Sowing Region and Timing for Kentucky Bluegrass in China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erxu Pi

    Full Text Available Temperature is a predominant environmental factor affecting grass germination and distribution. Various thermal-germination models for prediction of grass seed germination have been reported, in which the relationship between temperature and germination were defined with kernel functions, such as quadratic or quintic function. However, their prediction accuracies warrant further improvements. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the relative prediction accuracies of genetic algorithm (GA models, which are automatically parameterized with observed germination data. The seeds of five P. pratensis (Kentucky bluegrass, KB cultivars were germinated under 36 day/night temperature regimes ranging from 5/5 to 40/40 °C with 5 °C increments. Results showed that optimal germination percentages of all five tested KB cultivars were observed under a fluctuating temperature regime of 20/25 °C. Meanwhile, the constant temperature regimes (e.g., 5/5, 10/10, 15/15 °C, etc. suppressed the germination of all five cultivars. Furthermore, the back propagation artificial neural network (BP-ANN algorithm was integrated to optimize temperature-germination response models from these observed germination data. It was found that integrations of GA-BP-ANN (back propagation aided genetic algorithm artificial neural network significantly reduced the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE values from 0.21~0.23 to 0.02~0.09. In an effort to provide a more reliable prediction of optimum sowing time for the tested KB cultivars in various regions in the country, the optimized GA-BP-ANN models were applied to map spatial and temporal germination percentages of blue grass cultivars in China. Our results demonstrate that the GA-BP-ANN model is a convenient and reliable option for constructing thermal-germination response models since it automates model parameterization and has excellent prediction accuracy.

  19. A Novel Dynamic Algorithm for IT Outsourcing Risk Assessment Based on Transaction Cost Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guodong Cong

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available With the great risk exposed in IT outsourcing, how to assess IT outsourcing risk becomes a critical issue. However, most of approaches to date need to further adapt to the particular complexity of IT outsourcing risk for either falling short in subjective bias, inaccuracy, or efficiency. This paper proposes a dynamic algorithm of risk assessment. It initially forwards extended three layers (risk factors, risks, and risk consequences of transferring mechanism based on transaction cost theory (TCT as the framework of risk analysis, which bridges the interconnection of components in three layers with preset transferring probability and impact. Then, it establishes an equation group between risk factors and risk consequences, which assures the “attribution” more precisely to track the specific sources that lead to certain loss. Namely, in each phase of the outsourcing lifecycle, both the likelihood and the loss of each risk factor and those of each risk are acquired through solving equation group with real data of risk consequences collected. In this “reverse” way, risk assessment becomes a responsive and interactive process with real data instead of subjective estimation, which improves the accuracy and alleviates bias in risk assessment. The numerical case proves the effectiveness of the algorithm compared with the approach forwarded by other references.

  20. Prediction of insemination outcomes in Holstein dairy cattle using alternative machine learning algorithms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shahinfar, Saleh; Page, David; Guenther, Jerry; Cabrera, Victor; Fricke, Paul; Weigel, Kent

    2014-02-01

    When making the decision about whether or not to breed a given cow, knowledge about the expected outcome would have an economic impact on profitability of the breeding program and net income of the farm. The outcome of each breeding can be affected by many management and physiological features that vary between farms and interact with each other. Hence, the ability of machine learning algorithms to accommodate complex relationships in the data and missing values for explanatory variables makes these algorithms well suited for investigation of reproduction performance in dairy cattle. The objective of this study was to develop a user-friendly and intuitive on-farm tool to help farmers make reproduction management decisions. Several different machine learning algorithms were applied to predict the insemination outcomes of individual cows based on phenotypic and genotypic data. Data from 26 dairy farms in the Alta Genetics (Watertown, WI) Advantage Progeny Testing Program were used, representing a 10-yr period from 2000 to 2010. Health, reproduction, and production data were extracted from on-farm dairy management software, and estimated breeding values were downloaded from the US Department of Agriculture Agricultural Research Service Animal Improvement Programs Laboratory (Beltsville, MD) database. The edited data set consisted of 129,245 breeding records from primiparous Holstein cows and 195,128 breeding records from multiparous Holstein cows. Each data point in the final data set included 23 and 25 explanatory variables and 1 binary outcome for of 0.756 ± 0.005 and 0.736 ± 0.005 for primiparous and multiparous cows, respectively. The naïve Bayes algorithm, Bayesian network, and decision tree algorithms showed somewhat poorer classification performance. An information-based variable selection procedure identified herd average conception rate, incidence of ketosis, number of previous (failed) inseminations, days in milk at breeding, and mastitis as the most

  1. Optimal Design of Low-Density SNP Arrays for Genomic Prediction: Algorithm and Applications.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiao-Lin Wu

    Full Text Available Low-density (LD single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP arrays provide a cost-effective solution for genomic prediction and selection, but algorithms and computational tools are needed for the optimal design of LD SNP chips. A multiple-objective, local optimization (MOLO algorithm was developed for design of optimal LD SNP chips that can be imputed accurately to medium-density (MD or high-density (HD SNP genotypes for genomic prediction. The objective function facilitates maximization of non-gap map length and system information for the SNP chip, and the latter is computed either as locus-averaged (LASE or haplotype-averaged Shannon entropy (HASE and adjusted for uniformity of the SNP distribution. HASE performed better than LASE with ≤1,000 SNPs, but required considerably more computing time. Nevertheless, the differences diminished when >5,000 SNPs were selected. Optimization was accomplished conditionally on the presence of SNPs that were obligated to each chromosome. The frame location of SNPs on a chip can be either uniform (evenly spaced or non-uniform. For the latter design, a tunable empirical Beta distribution was used to guide location distribution of frame SNPs such that both ends of each chromosome were enriched with SNPs. The SNP distribution on each chromosome was finalized through the objective function that was locally and empirically maximized. This MOLO algorithm was capable of selecting a set of approximately evenly-spaced and highly-informative SNPs, which in turn led to increased imputation accuracy compared with selection solely of evenly-spaced SNPs. Imputation accuracy increased with LD chip size, and imputation error rate was extremely low for chips with ≥3,000 SNPs. Assuming that genotyping or imputation error occurs at random, imputation error rate can be viewed as the upper limit for genomic prediction error. Our results show that about 25% of imputation error rate was propagated to genomic prediction in an Angus

  2. Presentation and analysis of a general algorithm for risk-assessment on secondary poisoning

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Romijn CAFM; Luttik R; van de Meent D; Slooff W; Canton JH

    1991-01-01

    The study in this report was carried out in the frame of the project "Evaluation system for new chemical substances". The aim of the study was to present a general algorithm for risk-assessment on secondary poisoning of birds and mammals. Risk-assessment on secondary poisoning can be an

  3. A novel gene network inference algorithm using predictive minimum description length approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaitankar, Vijender; Ghosh, Preetam; Perkins, Edward J; Gong, Ping; Deng, Youping; Zhang, Chaoyang

    2010-05-28

    Reverse engineering of gene regulatory networks using information theory models has received much attention due to its simplicity, low computational cost, and capability of inferring large networks. One of the major problems with information theory models is to determine the threshold which defines the regulatory relationships between genes. The minimum description length (MDL) principle has been implemented to overcome this problem. The description length of the MDL principle is the sum of model length and data encoding length. A user-specified fine tuning parameter is used as control mechanism between model and data encoding, but it is difficult to find the optimal parameter. In this work, we proposed a new inference algorithm which incorporated mutual information (MI), conditional mutual information (CMI) and predictive minimum description length (PMDL) principle to infer gene regulatory networks from DNA microarray data. In this algorithm, the information theoretic quantities MI and CMI determine the regulatory relationships between genes and the PMDL principle method attempts to determine the best MI threshold without the need of a user-specified fine tuning parameter. The performance of the proposed algorithm was evaluated using both synthetic time series data sets and a biological time series data set for the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae. The benchmark quantities precision and recall were used as performance measures. The results show that the proposed algorithm produced less false edges and significantly improved the precision, as compared to the existing algorithm. For further analysis the performance of the algorithms was observed over different sizes of data. We have proposed a new algorithm that implements the PMDL principle for inferring gene regulatory networks from time series DNA microarray data that eliminates the need of a fine tuning parameter. The evaluation results obtained from both synthetic and actual biological data sets show that the

  4. Predictive risk factors for persistent postherniotomy pain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aasvang, Eske K; Gmaehle, Eliza; Hansen, Jeanette B

    2010-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Persistent postherniotomy pain (PPP) affects everyday activities in 5-10% of patients. Identification of predisposing factors may help to identify the risk groups and guide anesthetic or surgical procedures in reducing risk for PPP. METHODS: A prospective study was conducted in 464...... patients undergoing open or laparoscopic transabdominal preperitoneal elective groin hernia repair. Primary outcome was identification of risk factors for substantial pain-related functional impairment at 6 months postoperatively assessed by the validated Activity Assessment Scale (AAS). Data on potential...... risk factors for PPP were collected preoperatively (pain from the groin hernia, preoperative AAS score, pain from other body regions, and psychometric assessment). Pain scores were collected on days 7 and 30 postoperatively. Sensory functions including pain response to tonic heat stimulation were...

  5. Lipoprotein metabolism indicators improve cardiovascular risk prediction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schalkwijk, D.B. van; Graaf, A.A. de; Tsivtsivadze, E.; Parnell, L.D.; Werff-van der Vat, B.J.C. van der; Ommen, B. van; Greef, J. van der; Ordovás, J.M.

    2014-01-01

    Background: Cardiovascular disease risk increases when lipoprotein metabolism is dysfunctional. We have developed a computational model able to derive indicators of lipoprotein production, lipolysis, and uptake processes from a single lipoprotein profile measurement. This is the first study to

  6. Develop mental dyslexia: predicting individual risk

    OpenAIRE

    Thompson, PA; Hulme, C; Nash, HM; Gooch, Deborah; Hayiou-Thomas, E; Snowling, MJ

    2015-01-01

    Background Causal theories of dyslexia suggest that it is a heritable disorder, which is the outcome of multiple risk factors. However, whether early screening for dyslexia is viable is not yet known. Methods The study followed children at high risk of dyslexia from preschool through the early primary years assessing them from age 3 years and 6 months (T1) at approximately annual intervals on tasks tapping cognitive, language, and executive-motor skills. The children were recruited...

  7. A Knowledge-Base for a Personalized Infectious Disease Risk Prediction System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vinarti, Retno; Hederman, Lucy

    2018-01-01

    We present a knowledge-base to represent collated infectious disease risk (IDR) knowledge. The knowledge is about personal and contextual risk of contracting an infectious disease obtained from declarative sources (e.g. Atlas of Human Infectious Diseases). Automated prediction requires encoding this knowledge in a form that can produce risk probabilities (e.g. Bayesian Network - BN). The knowledge-base presented in this paper feeds an algorithm that can auto-generate the BN. The knowledge from 234 infectious diseases was compiled. From this compilation, we designed an ontology and five rule types for modelling IDR knowledge in general. The evaluation aims to assess whether the knowledge-base structure, and its application to three disease-country contexts, meets the needs of personalized IDR prediction system. From the evaluation results, the knowledge-base conforms to the system's purpose: personalization of infectious disease risk.

  8. Ab-initio conformational epitope structure prediction using genetic algorithm and SVM for vaccine design.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moghram, Basem Ameen; Nabil, Emad; Badr, Amr

    2018-01-01

    T-cell epitope structure identification is a significant challenging immunoinformatic problem within epitope-based vaccine design. Epitopes or antigenic peptides are a set of amino acids that bind with the Major Histocompatibility Complex (MHC) molecules. The aim of this process is presented by Antigen Presenting Cells to be inspected by T-cells. MHC-molecule-binding epitopes are responsible for triggering the immune response to antigens. The epitope's three-dimensional (3D) molecular structure (i.e., tertiary structure) reflects its proper function. Therefore, the identification of MHC class-II epitopes structure is a significant step towards epitope-based vaccine design and understanding of the immune system. In this paper, we propose a new technique using a Genetic Algorithm for Predicting the Epitope Structure (GAPES), to predict the structure of MHC class-II epitopes based on their sequence. The proposed Elitist-based genetic algorithm for predicting the epitope's tertiary structure is based on Ab-Initio Empirical Conformational Energy Program for Peptides (ECEPP) Force Field Model. The developed secondary structure prediction technique relies on Ramachandran Plot. We used two alignment algorithms: the ROSS alignment and TM-Score alignment. We applied four different alignment approaches to calculate the similarity scores of the dataset under test. We utilized the support vector machine (SVM) classifier as an evaluation of the prediction performance. The prediction accuracy and the Area Under Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) Curve (AUC) were calculated as measures of performance. The calculations are performed on twelve similarity-reduced datasets of the Immune Epitope Data Base (IEDB) and a large dataset of peptide-binding affinities to HLA-DRB1*0101. The results showed that GAPES was reliable and very accurate. We achieved an average prediction accuracy of 93.50% and an average AUC of 0.974 in the IEDB dataset. Also, we achieved an accuracy of 95

  9. Calibration plots for risk prediction models in the presence of competing risks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gerds, Thomas A; Andersen, Per K; Kattan, Michael W

    2014-01-01

    A predicted risk of 17% can be called reliable if it can be expected that the event will occur to about 17 of 100 patients who all received a predicted risk of 17%. Statistical models can predict the absolute risk of an event such as cardiovascular death in the presence of competing risks...... prediction model is well calibrated. The first is lack of independent validation data, the second is right censoring, and the third is that when the risk scale is continuous, the estimation problem is as difficult as density estimation. To deal with these problems, we propose to estimate calibration curves...

  10. Risk Assessment for Bridges Safety Management during Operation Based on Fuzzy Clustering Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xia Hanyu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, large span and large sea-crossing bridges are built, bridges accidents caused by improper operational management occur frequently. In order to explore the better methods for risk assessment of the bridges operation departments, the method based on fuzzy clustering algorithm is selected. Then, the implementation steps of fuzzy clustering algorithm are described, the risk evaluation system is built, and Taizhou Bridge is selected as an example, the quantitation of risk factors is described. After that, the clustering algorithm based on fuzzy equivalence is calculated on MATLAB 2010a. In the last, Taizhou Bridge operation management departments are classified and sorted according to the degree of risk, and the safety situation of operation departments is analyzed.

  11. Choosing algorithms for TB screening: a modelling study to compare yield, predictive value and diagnostic burden.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van't Hoog, Anna H; Onozaki, Ikushi; Lonnroth, Knut

    2014-10-19

    To inform the choice of an appropriate screening and diagnostic algorithm for tuberculosis (TB) screening initiatives in different epidemiological settings, we compare algorithms composed of currently available methods. Of twelve algorithms composed of screening for symptoms (prolonged cough or any TB symptom) and/or chest radiography abnormalities, and either sputum-smear microscopy (SSM) or Xpert MTB/RIF (XP) as confirmatory test we model algorithm outcomes and summarize the yield, number needed to screen (NNS) and positive predictive value (PPV) for different levels of TB prevalence. Screening for prolonged cough has low yield, 22% if confirmatory testing is by SSM and 32% if XP, and a high NNS, exceeding 1000 if TB prevalence is ≤0.5%. Due to low specificity the PPV of screening for any TB symptom followed by SSM is less than 50%, even if TB prevalence is 2%. CXR screening for TB abnormalities followed by XP has the highest case detection (87%) and lowest NNS, but is resource intensive. CXR as a second screen for symptom screen positives improves efficiency. The ideal algorithm does not exist. The choice will be setting specific, for which this study provides guidance. Generally an algorithm composed of CXR screening followed by confirmatory testing with XP can achieve the lowest NNS and highest PPV, and is the least amenable to setting-specific variation. However resource requirements for tests and equipment may be prohibitive in some settings and a reason to opt for symptom screening and SSM. To better inform disease control programs we need empirical data to confirm the modeled yield, cost-effectiveness studies, transmission models and a better screening test.

  12. A Clinical Algorithm to Identify HIV Patients at High Risk for Incident Active Tuberculosis: A Prospective 5-Year Cohort Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susan Shin-Jung Lee

    Full Text Available Predicting the risk of tuberculosis (TB in people living with HIV (PLHIV using a single test is currently not possible. We aimed to develop and validate a clinical algorithm, using baseline CD4 cell counts, HIV viral load (pVL, and interferon-gamma release assay (IGRA, to identify PLHIV who are at high risk for incident active TB in low-to-moderate TB burden settings where highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART is routinely provided.A prospective, 5-year, cohort study of adult PLHIV was conducted from 2006 to 2012 in two hospitals in Taiwan. HAART was initiated based on contemporary guidelines (CD4 count < = 350/μL. Cox regression was used to identify the predictors of active TB and to construct the algorithm. The validation cohorts included 1455 HIV-infected individuals from previous published studies. Area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC curve was calculated.Seventeen of 772 participants developed active TB during a median follow-up period of 5.21 years. Baseline CD4 < 350/μL or pVL ≥ 100,000/mL was a predictor of active TB (adjusted HR 4.87, 95% CI 1.49-15.90, P = 0.009. A positive baseline IGRA predicted TB in patients with baseline CD4 ≥ 350/μL and pVL < 100,000/mL (adjusted HR 6.09, 95% CI 1.52-24.40, P = 0.01. Compared with an IGRA-alone strategy, the algorithm improved the sensitivity from 37.5% to 76.5%, the negative predictive value from 98.5% to 99.2%. Compared with an untargeted strategy, the algorithm spared 468 (60.6% from unnecessary TB preventive treatment. Area under the ROC curve was 0.692 (95% CI: 0.587-0.798 for the study cohort and 0.792 (95% CI: 0.776-0.808 and 0.766 in the 2 validation cohorts.A validated algorithm incorporating the baseline CD4 cell count, HIV viral load, and IGRA status can be used to guide targeted TB preventive treatment in PLHIV in low-to-moderate TB burden settings where HAART is routinely provided to all PLHIV. The implementation of this algorithm will avoid unnecessary

  13. Risk Management of the Natural Gas Consumption using Genetic Algorithms

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Pelikán, Emil; Šimůnek, Milan

    2005-01-01

    Roč. 15, - (2005), s. 425-436 ISSN 1210-0552 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR 1ET400300513 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10300504 Keywords : forecasting * risk-management * energy consumption Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research

  14. NBA-Palm: prediction of palmitoylation site implemented in Naïve Bayes algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jin Changjiang

    2006-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Protein palmitoylation, an essential and reversible post-translational modification (PTM, has been implicated in cellular dynamics and plasticity. Although numerous experimental studies have been performed to explore the molecular mechanisms underlying palmitoylation processes, the intrinsic feature of substrate specificity has remained elusive. Thus, computational approaches for palmitoylation prediction are much desirable for further experimental design. Results In this work, we present NBA-Palm, a novel computational method based on Naïve Bayes algorithm for prediction of palmitoylation site. The training data is curated from scientific literature (PubMed and includes 245 palmitoylated sites from 105 distinct proteins after redundancy elimination. The proper window length for a potential palmitoylated peptide is optimized as six. To evaluate the prediction performance of NBA-Palm, 3-fold cross-validation, 8-fold cross-validation and Jack-Knife validation have been carried out. Prediction accuracies reach 85.79% for 3-fold cross-validation, 86.72% for 8-fold cross-validation and 86.74% for Jack-Knife validation. Two more algorithms, RBF network and support vector machine (SVM, also have been employed and compared with NBA-Palm. Conclusion Taken together, our analyses demonstrate that NBA-Palm is a useful computational program that provides insights for further experimentation. The accuracy of NBA-Palm is comparable with our previously described tool CSS-Palm. The NBA-Palm is freely accessible from: http://www.bioinfo.tsinghua.edu.cn/NBA-Palm.

  15. NBA-Palm: prediction of palmitoylation site implemented in Naïve Bayes algorithm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Yu; Chen, Hu; Jin, Changjiang; Sun, Zhirong; Yao, Xuebiao

    2006-10-17

    Protein palmitoylation, an essential and reversible post-translational modification (PTM), has been implicated in cellular dynamics and plasticity. Although numerous experimental studies have been performed to explore the molecular mechanisms underlying palmitoylation processes, the intrinsic feature of substrate specificity has remained elusive. Thus, computational approaches for palmitoylation prediction are much desirable for further experimental design. In this work, we present NBA-Palm, a novel computational method based on Naïve Bayes algorithm for prediction of palmitoylation site. The training data is curated from scientific literature (PubMed) and includes 245 palmitoylated sites from 105 distinct proteins after redundancy elimination. The proper window length for a potential palmitoylated peptide is optimized as six. To evaluate the prediction performance of NBA-Palm, 3-fold cross-validation, 8-fold cross-validation and Jack-Knife validation have been carried out. Prediction accuracies reach 85.79% for 3-fold cross-validation, 86.72% for 8-fold cross-validation and 86.74% for Jack-Knife validation. Two more algorithms, RBF network and support vector machine (SVM), also have been employed and compared with NBA-Palm. Taken together, our analyses demonstrate that NBA-Palm is a useful computational program that provides insights for further experimentation. The accuracy of NBA-Palm is comparable with our previously described tool CSS-Palm. The NBA-Palm is freely accessible from: http://www.bioinfo.tsinghua.edu.cn/NBA-Palm.

  16. A Novel Method to Predict Genomic Islands Based on Mean Shift Clustering Algorithm.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel M de Brito

    Full Text Available Genomic Islands (GIs are regions of bacterial genomes that are acquired from other organisms by the phenomenon of horizontal transfer. These regions are often responsible for many important acquired adaptations of the bacteria, with great impact on their evolution and behavior. Nevertheless, these adaptations are usually associated with pathogenicity, antibiotic resistance, degradation and metabolism. Identification of such regions is of medical and industrial interest. For this reason, different approaches for genomic islands prediction have been proposed. However, none of them are capable of predicting precisely the complete repertory of GIs in a genome. The difficulties arise due to the changes in performance of different algorithms in the face of the variety of nucleotide distribution in different species. In this paper, we present a novel method to predict GIs that is built upon mean shift clustering algorithm. It does not require any information regarding the number of clusters, and the bandwidth parameter is automatically calculated based on a heuristic approach. The method was implemented in a new user-friendly tool named MSGIP--Mean Shift Genomic Island Predictor. Genomes of bacteria with GIs discussed in other papers were used to evaluate the proposed method. The application of this tool revealed the same GIs predicted by other methods and also different novel unpredicted islands. A detailed investigation of the different features related to typical GI elements inserted in these new regions confirmed its effectiveness. Stand-alone and user-friendly versions for this new methodology are available at http://msgip.integrativebioinformatics.me.

  17. [Prediction of regional soil quality based on mutual information theory integrated with decision tree algorithm].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Fen-Fang; Wang, Ke; Yang, Ning; Yan, Shi-Guang; Zheng, Xin-Yu

    2012-02-01

    In this paper, some main factors such as soil type, land use pattern, lithology type, topography, road, and industry type that affect soil quality were used to precisely obtain the spatial distribution characteristics of regional soil quality, mutual information theory was adopted to select the main environmental factors, and decision tree algorithm See 5.0 was applied to predict the grade of regional soil quality. The main factors affecting regional soil quality were soil type, land use, lithology type, distance to town, distance to water area, altitude, distance to road, and distance to industrial land. The prediction accuracy of the decision tree model with the variables selected by mutual information was obviously higher than that of the model with all variables, and, for the former model, whether of decision tree or of decision rule, its prediction accuracy was all higher than 80%. Based on the continuous and categorical data, the method of mutual information theory integrated with decision tree could not only reduce the number of input parameters for decision tree algorithm, but also predict and assess regional soil quality effectively.

  18. Algorithms for the prediction of retinopathy of prematurity based on postnatal weight gain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Binenbaum, Gil

    2013-06-01

    Current ROP screening guidelines represent a simple risk model with two dichotomized factors, birth weight and gestational age at birth. Pioneering work has shown that tracking postnatal weight gain, a surrogate for low insulin-like growth factor 1, may capture the influence of many other ROP risk factors and improve risk prediction. Models including weight gain, such as WINROP, ROPScore, and CHOP ROP, have demonstrated accurate ROP risk assessment and a potentially large reduction in ROP examinations, compared to current guidelines. However, there is a need for larger studies, and generalizability is limited in countries with developing neonatal care systems. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Integrated Application of Random Forest and Artificial Neural Network Algorithms to Predict Viral Contamination in Coastal Waters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shamkhali Chenar, S.; Deng, Z.

    2017-12-01

    Pathogenic viruses pose a significant public health threat and economic losses to shellfish industry in the coastal environment. Norovirus is a contagious virus and the leading cause of epidemic gastroenteritis following consumption of oysters harvested from sewage-contaminated waters. While it is challenging to detect noroviruses in coastal waters due to the lack of sensitive and routine diagnostic methods, machine learning techniques are allowing us to prevent or at least reduce the risks by developing effective predictive models. This study attempts to develop an algorithm between historical norovirus outbreak reports and environmental parameters including water temperature, solar radiation, water level, salinity, precipitation, and wind. For this purpose, the Random Forests statistical technique was utilized to select relevant environmental parameters and their various combinations with different time lags controlling the virus distribution in oyster harvesting areas along the Louisiana Coast. An Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) approach was then presented to predict the outbreaks using a final set of input variables. Finally, a sensitivity analysis was conducted to evaluate relative importance and contribution of the input variables to the model output. Findings demonstrated that the developed model was capable of reproducing historical oyster norovirus outbreaks along the Louisiana Coast with the overall accuracy of than 99.83%, demonstrating the efficacy of the model. Moreover, the increase in water temperature, solar radiation, water level, and salinity, and the decrease in wind and rainfall are associated with the reduction in the model-predicted risk of norovirus outbreak according to sensitivity analysis results. In conclusion, the presented machine learning approach provided reliable tools for predicting potential norovirus outbreaks and could be used for early detection of possible outbreaks and reduce the risk of norovirus to public health and the

  20. Water erosion risk prediction in eucalyptus plantations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mayesse Aparecida da Silva

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Eucalyptus plantations are normally found in vulnerable ecosystems such as steep slope, soil with low natural fertility and lands that were degraded by agriculture. The objective of this study was to obtain Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE factors and use them to estimate water erosion risk in regions with eucalyptus planted. The USLE factors were obtained in field plots under natural rainfall in the Rio Doce Basin, MG, Brazil, and the model applied to assess erosion risk using USLE in a Geographic Information System. The study area showed rainfall-runoff erosivity values from 10,721 to 10,642 MJ mm ha-1 h-1 yr-1. Some soils (Latosols had very low erodibility values (2.0 x 10-4 and 1.0 x 10-4t h MJ-1 mm-1, the topographic factor ranged from 0.03 to 10.57 and crop and management factor values obtained for native forest, eucalyptus and planted pasture were 0.09, 0.12 and 0.22, respectively. Water erosion risk estimates for current land use indicated that the areas where should receive more attention were mainly areas with greater topographic factors and those with Cambisols. Planning of forestry activities in this region should consider implementation of other conservation practices beyond those already used, reducing areas with a greater risk of soil erosion and increasing areas with very low risk.

  1. Predicting the Occurrence of Haze Events in Southeast Asia using Machine Learning Algorithms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, H. H.; Chulakadabba, A.; Tonks, A.; Yang, Z.; Wang, C.

    2017-12-01

    Severe local- and regional-scale air pollution episodes typically originate from 1) high emissions of air pollutants, 2) poor dispersion conditions, and 3) trans-boundary pollutant transport. Biomass burning activities have become more frequent in Southeast Asia, especially in Sumatra, Borneo, and the mainland Southeast. Trans-boundary transport of biomass burning aerosols often lead to air quality problems in the region. Furthermore, particulate pollutants from human activities besides biomass burning also play an important role in the air quality of Southeast Asia. Singapore, for example, has a dynamic industrial sector including chemical, electric and metallurgic industries, and is the region's major petroleum-refining center. In addition, natural gas and oil power plants, waste incinerators, active port traffic, and a major regional airport further complicate Singapore's air quality issues. In this study, we compare five Machine Learning algorithms: k-Nearest Neighbors, Linear Support Vector Machine, Decision Tree, Random Forest and Artificial Neural Network, to identify haze patterns and determine variable importance. The algorithms were trained using local atmospheric data (i.e. months, atmospheric conditions, wind direction and relative humidity) from three observation stations in Singapore (Changi, Seletar and Paya Labar). We find that the algorithms reveal the associations in data within and between the stations, and provide in-depth interpretation of the haze sources. The algorithms also allow us to predict the probability of haze episodes in Singapore and to determine the correlation between this probability and atmospheric conditions.

  2. A Tutorial on Nonlinear Time-Series Data Mining in Engineering Asset Health and Reliability Prediction: Concepts, Models, and Algorithms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming Dong

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The primary objective of engineering asset management is to optimize assets service delivery potential and to minimize the related risks and costs over their entire life through the development and application of asset health and usage management in which the health and reliability prediction plays an important role. In real-life situations where an engineering asset operates under dynamic operational and environmental conditions, the lifetime of an engineering asset is generally described as monitored nonlinear time-series data and subject to high levels of uncertainty and unpredictability. It has been proved that application of data mining techniques is very useful for extracting relevant features which can be used as parameters for assets diagnosis and prognosis. In this paper, a tutorial on nonlinear time-series data mining in engineering asset health and reliability prediction is given. Besides that an overview on health and reliability prediction techniques for engineering assets is covered, this tutorial will focus on concepts, models, algorithms, and applications of hidden Markov models (HMMs and hidden semi-Markov models (HSMMs in engineering asset health prognosis, which are representatives of recent engineering asset health prediction techniques.

  3. Hypotension Risk Prediction via Sequential Contrast Patterns of ICU Blood Pressure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghosh, Shameek; Feng, Mengling; Nguyen, Hung; Li, Jinyan

    2016-09-01

    Acute hypotension is a significant risk factor for in-hospital mortality at intensive care units. Prolonged hypotension can cause tissue hypoperfusion, leading to cellular dysfunction and severe injuries to multiple organs. Prompt medical interventions are thus extremely important for dealing with acute hypotensive episodes (AHE). Population level prognostic scoring systems for risk stratification of patients are suboptimal in such scenarios. However, the design of an efficient risk prediction system can significantly help in the identification of critical care patients, who are at risk of developing an AHE within a future time span. Toward this objective, a pattern mining algorithm is employed to extract informative sequential contrast patterns from hemodynamic data, for the prediction of hypotensive episodes. The hypotensive and normotensive patient groups are extracted from the MIMIC-II critical care research database, following an appropriate clinical inclusion criteria. The proposed method consists of a data preprocessing step to convert the blood pressure time series into symbolic sequences, using a symbolic aggregate approximation algorithm. Then, distinguishing subsequences are identified using the sequential contrast mining algorithm. These subsequences are used to predict the occurrence of an AHE in a future time window separated by a user-defined gap interval. Results indicate that the method performs well in terms of the prediction performance as well as in the generation of sequential patterns of clinical significance. Hence, the novelty of sequential patterns is in their usefulness as potential physiological biomarkers for building optimal patient risk stratification systems and for further clinical investigation of interesting patterns in critical care patients.

  4. A new spirometry-based algorithm to predict occupational pulmonary restrictive impairment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Matteis, S; Iridoy-Zulet, A A; Aaron, S; Swann, A; Cullinan, P

    2016-01-01

    Spirometry is often included in workplace-based respiratory surveillance programmes but its performance in the identification of restrictive lung disease is poor, especially when the prevalence of this condition is low in the tested population. To improve the specificity (Sp) and positive predictive value (PPV) of current spirometry-based algorithms in the diagnosis of restrictive pulmonary impairment in the workplace and to reduce the proportion of false positives findings and, as a result, unnecessary referrals for lung volume measurements. We re-analysed two studies of hospital patients, respectively used to derive and validate a recommended spirometry-based algorithm [forced vital capacity (FVC) 55%] for the recognition of restrictive pulmonary impairment. We used true lung restrictive cases as a reference standard in 2×2 contingency tables to estimate sensitivity (Sn), Sp and PPV and negative predictive values for each diagnostic cut-off. We simulated a working population aged spirometry-based algorithm may be adopted to accurately exclude pulmonary restriction and to possibly reduce unnecessary lung volume testing in an occupational health setting. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society of Occupational Medicine. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  5. Evaluation of machine learning algorithms for prediction of regions of high Reynolds averaged Navier Stokes uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ling, J.; Templeton, J.

    2015-08-01

    Reynolds Averaged Navier Stokes (RANS) models are widely used in industry to predict fluid flows, despite their acknowledged deficiencies. Not only do RANS models often produce inaccurate flow predictions, but there are very limited diagnostics available to assess RANS accuracy for a given flow configuration. If experimental or higher fidelity simulation results are not available for RANS validation, there is no reliable method to evaluate RANS accuracy. This paper explores the potential of utilizing machine learning algorithms to identify regions of high RANS uncertainty. Three different machine learning algorithms were evaluated: support vector machines, Adaboost decision trees, and random forests. The algorithms were trained on a database of canonical flow configurations for which validated direct numerical simulation or large eddy simulation results were available, and were used to classify RANS results on a point-by-point basis as having either high or low uncertainty, based on the breakdown of specific RANS modeling assumptions. Classifiers were developed for three different basic RANS eddy viscosity model assumptions: the isotropy of the eddy viscosity, the linearity of the Boussinesq hypothesis, and the non-negativity of the eddy viscosity. It is shown that these classifiers are able to generalize to flows substantially different from those on which they were trained. Feature selection techniques, model evaluation, and extrapolation detection are discussed in the context of turbulence modeling applications.

  6. Monitoring of the future strong Vrancea events by using the CN formal earthquake prediction algorithm

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moldoveanu, C.L.; Novikova, O.V.; Panza, G.F.; Radulian, M.

    2003-06-01

    The preparation process of the strong subcrustal events originating in Vrancea region, Romania, is monitored using an intermediate-term medium-range earthquake prediction method - the CN algorithm (Keilis-Borok and Rotwain, 1990). We present the results of the monitoring of the preparation of future strong earthquakes for the time interval from January 1, 1994 (1994.1.1), to January 1, 2003 (2003.1.1) using the updated catalogue of the Romanian local network. The database considered for the CN monitoring of the preparation of future strong earthquakes in Vrancea covers the period from 1966.3.1 to 2003.1.1 and the geographical rectangle 44.8 deg - 48.4 deg N, 25.0 deg - 28.0 deg E. The algorithm correctly identifies, by retrospective prediction, the TJPs for all the three strong earthquakes (Mo=6.4) that occurred in Vrancea during this period. The cumulated duration of the TIPs represents 26.5% of the total period of time considered (1966.3.1-2003.1.1). The monitoring of current seismicity using the algorithm CN has been carried out since 1994. No strong earthquakes occurred from 1994.1.1 to 2003.1.1 but the CN declared an extended false alarm from 1999.5.1 to 2000.11.1. No alarm has currently been declared in the region (on January 1, 2003), as can be seen from the TJPs diagram shown. (author)

  7. Slow Learner Prediction Using Multi-Variate Naïve Bayes Classification Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shiwani Rana

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Machine Learning is a field of computer science that learns from data by studying algorithms and their constructions. In machine learning, for specific inputs, algorithms help to make predictions. Classification is a supervised learning approach, which maps a data item into predefined classes. For predicting slow learners in an institute, a modified Naïve Bayes algorithm implemented. The implementation is carried sing Python.  It takes into account a combination of likewise multi-valued attributes. A dataset of the 60 students of BE (Information Technology Third Semester for the subject of Digital Electronics of University Institute of Engineering and Technology (UIET, Panjab University (PU, Chandigarh, India is taken to carry out the simulations. The analysis is done by choosing most significant forty-eight attributes. The experimental results have shown that the modified Naïve Bayes model has outperformed the Naïve Bayes Classifier in accuracy but requires significant improvement in the terms of elapsed time. By using Modified Naïve Bayes approach, the accuracy is found out to be 71.66% whereas it is calculated 66.66% using existing Naïve Bayes model. Further, a comparison is drawn by using WEKA tool. Here, an accuracy of Naïve Bayes is obtained as 58.33 %.

  8. Predicting risk and the emergence of schizophrenia.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Clarke, Mary C

    2012-09-01

    This article gives an overview of genetic and environmental risk factors for schizophrenia. The presence of certain molecular, biological, and psychosocial factors at certain points in the life span, has been linked to later development of schizophrenia. All need to be considered in the context of schizophrenia as a lifelong brain disorder. Research interest in schizophrenia is shifting to late childhood\\/early adolescence for screening and preventative measures. This article discusses those environmental risk factors for schizophrenia for which there is the largest evidence base.

  9. Protein Tertiary Structure Prediction Based on Main Chain Angle Using a Hybrid Bees Colony Optimization Algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahmood, Zakaria N.; Mahmuddin, Massudi; Mahmood, Mohammed Nooraldeen

    Encoding proteins of amino acid sequence to predict classified into their respective families and subfamilies is important research area. However for a given protein, knowing the exact action whether hormonal, enzymatic, transmembranal or nuclear receptors does not depend solely on amino acid sequence but on the way the amino acid thread folds as well. This study provides a prototype system that able to predict a protein tertiary structure. Several methods are used to develop and evaluate the system to produce better accuracy in protein 3D structure prediction. The Bees Optimization algorithm which inspired from the honey bees food foraging method, is used in the searching phase. In this study, the experiment is conducted on short sequence proteins that have been used by the previous researches using well-known tools. The proposed approach shows a promising result.

  10. Body composition indices and predicted cardiovascular disease risk profile among urban dwellers in Malaysia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Tin Tin; Amiri, Mohammadreza; Mohd Hairi, Farizah; Thangiah, Nithiah; Dahlui, Maznah; Majid, Hazreen Abdul

    2015-01-01

    This study aims to compare various body composition indices and their association with a predicted cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk profile in an urban population in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. A cross-sectional survey was conducted in metropolitan Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, in 2012. Households were selected using a simple random-sampling method, and adult members were invited for medical screening. The Framingham Risk Scoring algorithm was used to predict CVD risk, which was then analyzed in association with body composition measurements, including waist circumference, waist-hip ratio, waist-height ratio, body fat percentage, and body mass index. Altogether, 882 individuals were included in our analyses. Indices that included waist-related measurements had the strongest association with CVD risk in both genders. After adjusting for demographic and socioeconomic variables, waist-related measurements retained the strongest correlations with predicted CVD risk in males. However, body mass index, waist-height ratio, and waist circumference had the strongest correlation with CVD risk in females. The waist-related indicators of abdominal obesity are important components of CVD risk profiles. As waist-related parameters can quickly and easily be measured, they should be routinely obtained in primary care settings and population health screens in order to assess future CVD risk profiles and design appropriate interventions.

  11. Body Composition Indices and Predicted Cardiovascular Disease Risk Profile among Urban Dwellers in Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tin Tin Su

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Objectives. This study aims to compare various body composition indices and their association with a predicted cardiovascular disease (CVD risk profile in an urban population in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Methods. A cross-sectional survey was conducted in metropolitan Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, in 2012. Households were selected using a simple random-sampling method, and adult members were invited for medical screening. The Framingham Risk Scoring algorithm was used to predict CVD risk, which was then analyzed in association with body composition measurements, including waist circumference, waist-hip ratio, waist-height ratio, body fat percentage, and body mass index. Results. Altogether, 882 individuals were included in our analyses. Indices that included waist-related measurements had the strongest association with CVD risk in both genders. After adjusting for demographic and socioeconomic variables, waist-related measurements retained the strongest correlations with predicted CVD risk in males. However, body mass index, waist-height ratio, and waist circumference had the strongest correlation with CVD risk in females. Conclusions. The waist-related indicators of abdominal obesity are important components of CVD risk profiles. As waist-related parameters can quickly and easily be measured, they should be routinely obtained in primary care settings and population health screens in order to assess future CVD risk profiles and design appropriate interventions.

  12. Risk assessment methodologies for predicting phosphorus losses

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schoumans, O.F.; Chardon, W.J.

    2003-01-01

    Risk assessment parameters are needed to assess the contribution of phosphorus (P) losses from soil to surface water, and the effectiveness of nutrient and land management strategies for the reduction of P loss. These parameters need to take into account the large temporal and spatial variation in P

  13. A parallel algorithm for the initial screening of space debris collisions prediction using the SGP4/SDP4 models and GPU acceleration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Mingpei; Xu, Ming; Fu, Xiaoyu

    2017-05-01

    Currently, a tremendous amount of space debris in Earth's orbit imperils operational spacecraft. It is essential to undertake risk assessments of collisions and predict dangerous encounters in space. However, collision predictions for an enormous amount of space debris give rise to large-scale computations. In this paper, a parallel algorithm is established on the Compute Unified Device Architecture (CUDA) platform of NVIDIA Corporation for collision prediction. According to the parallel structure of NVIDIA graphics processors, a block decomposition strategy is adopted in the algorithm. Space debris is divided into batches, and the computation and data transfer operations of adjacent batches overlap. As a consequence, the latency to access shared memory during the entire computing process is significantly reduced, and a higher computing speed is reached. Theoretically, a simulation of collision prediction for space debris of any amount and for any time span can be executed. To verify this algorithm, a simulation example including 1382 pieces of debris, whose operational time scales vary from 1 min to 3 days, is conducted on Tesla C2075 of NVIDIA. The simulation results demonstrate that with the same computational accuracy as that of a CPU, the computing speed of the parallel algorithm on a GPU is 30 times that on a CPU. Based on this algorithm, collision prediction of over 150 Chinese spacecraft for a time span of 3 days can be completed in less than 3 h on a single computer, which meets the timeliness requirement of the initial screening task. Furthermore, the algorithm can be adapted for multiple tasks, including particle filtration, constellation design, and Monte-Carlo simulation of an orbital computation.

  14. Operationalization and Validation of the Stopping Elderly Accidents, Deaths, and Injuries (STEADI) Fall Risk Algorithm in a Nationally Representative Sample

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lohman, Matthew C.; Crow, Rebecca S.; DiMilia, Peter R.; Nicklett, Emily J.; Bruce, Martha L.; Batsis, John A.

    2017-01-01

    Background Preventing falls and fall-related injuries among older adults is a public health priority. The Stopping Elderly Accidents, Deaths, and Injuries (STEADI) tool was developed to promote fall risk screening and encourage coordination between clinical and community-based fall prevention resources; however, little is known about the tool’s predictive validity or adaptability to survey data. Methods Data from five annual rounds (2011–2015) of the National Health and Aging Trends Study (NHATS), a representative cohort of adults age 65 and older in the US. Analytic sample respondents (n=7,392) were categorized at baseline as having low, moderate, or high fall risk according to the STEADI algorithm adapted for use with NHATS data. Logistic mixed-effects regression was used to estimate the association between baseline fall risk and subsequent falls and mortality. Analyses incorporated complex sampling and weighting elements to permit inferences at a national level. Results Participants classified as having moderate and high fall risk had 2.62 (95% CI: 2.29, 2.99) and 4.76 (95% CI: 3.51, 6.47) times greater odds of falling during follow-up compared to those with low risk, respectively, controlling for sociodemographic and health related risk factors for falls. High fall risk was also associated with greater likelihood of falling multiple times annually but not with greater risk of mortality. Conclusion The adapted STEADI clinical fall risk screening tool is a valid measure for predicting future fall risk using survey cohort data. Further efforts to standardize screening for fall risk and to coordinate between clinical and community-based fall prevention initiatives are warranted. PMID:28947669

  15. Operationalisation and validation of the Stopping Elderly Accidents, Deaths, and Injuries (STEADI) fall risk algorithm in a nationally representative sample.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lohman, Matthew C; Crow, Rebecca S; DiMilia, Peter R; Nicklett, Emily J; Bruce, Martha L; Batsis, John A

    2017-12-01

    Preventing falls and fall-related injuries among older adults is a public health priority. The Stopping Elderly Accidents, Deaths, and Injuries (STEADI) tool was developed to promote fall risk screening and encourage coordination between clinical and community-based fall prevention resources; however, little is known about the tool's predictive validity or adaptability to survey data. Data from five annual rounds (2011-2015) of the National Health and Aging Trends Study (NHATS), a representative cohort of adults age 65 years and older in the USA. Analytic sample respondents (n=7392) were categorised at baseline as having low, moderate or high fall risk according to the STEADI algorithm adapted for use with NHATS data. Logistic mixed-effects regression was used to estimate the association between baseline fall risk and subsequent falls and mortality. Analyses incorporated complex sampling and weighting elements to permit inferences at a national level. Participants classified as having moderate and high fall risk had 2.62 (95% CI 2.29 to 2.99) and 4.76 (95% CI 3.51 to 6.47) times greater odds of falling during follow-up compared with those with low risk, respectively, controlling for sociodemographic and health-related risk factors for falls. High fall risk was also associated with greater likelihood of falling multiple times annually but not with greater risk of mortality. The adapted STEADI clinical fall risk screening tool is a valid measure for predicting future fall risk using survey cohort data. Further efforts to standardise screening for fall risk and to coordinate between clinical and community-based fall prevention initiatives are warranted. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  16. Risk prediction model: Statistical and artificial neural network approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paiman, Nuur Azreen; Hariri, Azian; Masood, Ibrahim

    2017-04-01

    Prediction models are increasingly gaining popularity and had been used in numerous areas of studies to complement and fulfilled clinical reasoning and decision making nowadays. The adoption of such models assist physician's decision making, individual's behavior, and consequently improve individual outcomes and the cost-effectiveness of care. The objective of this paper is to reviewed articles related to risk prediction model in order to understand the suitable approach, development and the validation process of risk prediction model. A qualitative review of the aims, methods and significant main outcomes of the nineteen published articles that developed risk prediction models from numerous fields were done. This paper also reviewed on how researchers develop and validate the risk prediction models based on statistical and artificial neural network approach. From the review done, some methodological recommendation in developing and validating the prediction model were highlighted. According to studies that had been done, artificial neural network approached in developing the prediction model were more accurate compared to statistical approach. However currently, only limited published literature discussed on which approach is more accurate for risk prediction model development.

  17. Prediction of Banking Systemic Risk Based on Support Vector Machine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shouwei Li

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Banking systemic risk is a complex nonlinear phenomenon and has shed light on the importance of safeguarding financial stability by recent financial crisis. According to the complex nonlinear characteristics of banking systemic risk, in this paper we apply support vector machine (SVM to the prediction of banking systemic risk in an attempt to suggest a new model with better explanatory power and stability. We conduct a case study of an SVM-based prediction model for Chinese banking systemic risk and find the experiment results showing that support vector machine is an efficient method in such case.

  18. Small Body GN&C Research Report: A Robust Model Predictive Control Algorithm with Guaranteed Resolvability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acikmese, Behcet A.; Carson, John M., III

    2005-01-01

    A robustly stabilizing MPC (model predictive control) algorithm for uncertain nonlinear systems is developed that guarantees the resolvability of the associated finite-horizon optimal control problem in a receding-horizon implementation. The control consists of two components; (i) feedforward, and (ii) feedback part. Feed-forward control is obtained by online solution of a finite-horizon optimal control problem for the nominal system dynamics. The feedback control policy is designed off-line based on a bound on the uncertainty in the system model. The entire controller is shown to be robustly stabilizing with a region of attraction composed of initial states for which the finite-horizon optimal control problem is feasible. The controller design for this algorithm is demonstrated on a class of systems with uncertain nonlinear terms that have norm-bounded derivatives, and derivatives in polytopes. An illustrative numerical example is also provided.

  19. A Dantzig-Wolfe decomposition algorithm for linear economic model predictive control of dynamically decoupled subsystems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sokoler, Leo Emil; Standardi, Laura; Edlund, Kristian

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a warm-started Dantzig–Wolfe decomposition algorithm tailored to economic model predictive control of dynamically decoupled subsystems. We formulate the constrained optimal control problem solved at each sampling instant as a linear program with state space constraints, input...... limits, input rate limits, and soft output limits. The objective function of the linear program is related directly to the cost of operating the subsystems, and the cost of violating the soft output constraints. Simulations for large-scale economic power dispatch problems show that the proposed algorithm...... is significantly faster than both state-of-the-art linear programming solvers, and a structure exploiting implementation of the alternating direction method of multipliers. It is also demonstrated that the control strategy presented in this paper can be tuned using a weighted ℓ1-regularization term...

  20. Investigation of Diesel’s Residual Noise on Predictive Vehicles Noise Cancelling using LMS Adaptive Algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arttini Dwi Prasetyowati, Sri; Susanto, Adhi; Widihastuti, Ida

    2017-04-01

    Every noise problems require different solution. In this research, the noise that must be cancelled comes from roadway. Least Mean Square (LMS) adaptive is one of the algorithm that can be used to cancel that noise. Residual noise always appears and could not be erased completely. This research aims to know the characteristic of residual noise from vehicle’s noise and analysis so that it is no longer appearing as a problem. LMS algorithm was used to predict the vehicle’s noise and minimize the error. The distribution of the residual noise could be observed to determine the specificity of the residual noise. The statistic of the residual noise close to normal distribution with = 0,0435, = 1,13 and the autocorrelation of the residual noise forming impulse. As a conclusion the residual noise is insignificant.

  1. Prediction of Aerodynamic Coefficients for Wind Tunnel Data using a Genetic Algorithm Optimized Neural Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajkumar, T.; Aragon, Cecilia; Bardina, Jorge; Britten, Roy

    2002-01-01

    A fast, reliable way of predicting aerodynamic coefficients is produced using a neural network optimized by a genetic algorithm. Basic aerodynamic coefficients (e.g. lift, drag, pitching moment) are modelled as functions of angle of attack and Mach number. The neural network is first trained on a relatively rich set of data from wind tunnel tests of numerical simulations to learn an overall model. Most of the aerodynamic parameters can be well-fitted using polynomial functions. A new set of data, which can be relatively sparse, is then supplied to the network to produce a new model consistent with the previous model and the new data. Because the new model interpolates realistically between the sparse test data points, it is suitable for use in piloted simulations. The genetic algorithm is used to choose a neural network architecture to give best results, avoiding over-and under-fitting of the test data.

  2. Does a Diagnostic Classification Algorithm Help to Predict the Course of Low Back Pain?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hartvigsen, Lisbeth; Kongsted, Alice; Vach, Werner

    2018-01-01

    ). Objectives To investigate if a diagnostic classification algorithm is associated with activity limitation and LBP intensity at 2-week and 3-month follow up, and 1-year trajectories of LBP intensity, and if it improves prediction of outcome when added to a set of known predictors. Methods 934 consecutive......Study Design A prospective observational study. Background A diagnostic classification algorithm was developed by Petersen et al., consisting of 12 categories based on a standardized examination protocol with the primary purpose of identifying clinically homogeneous subgroups of low back pain (LBP...... adult patients, with new episodes of LBP, who were visiting chiropractic practices in primary care were categorized according to the Petersen classification. Outcomes were disability and pain intensity measured at 2 weeks and 3 months, and 1-year trajectories of LBP based on weekly responses to text...

  3. Elderly fall risk prediction using static posturography

    OpenAIRE

    Howcroft, Jennifer; Lemaire, Edward D.; Kofman, Jonathan; McIlroy, William E.

    2017-01-01

    Maintaining and controlling postural balance is important for activities of daily living, with poor postural balance being predictive of future falls. This study investigated eyes open and eyes closed standing posturography with elderly adults to identify differences and determine appropriate outcome measure cut-off scores for prospective faller, single-faller, multi-faller, and non-faller classifications. 100 older adults (75.5 ± 6.7 years) stood quietly with eyes open and then eyes closed w...

  4. Hemodynamic and oxygen transport patterns for outcome prediction, therapeutic goals, and clinical algorithms to improve outcome. Feasibility of artificial intelligence to customize algorithms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shoemaker, W C; Patil, R; Appel, P L; Kram, H B

    1992-11-01

    A generalized decision tree or clinical algorithm for treatment of high-risk elective surgical patients was developed from a physiologic model based on empirical data. First, a large data bank was used to do the following: (1) describe temporal hemodynamic and oxygen transport patterns that interrelate cardiac, pulmonary, and tissue perfusion functions in survivors and nonsurvivors; (2) define optimal therapeutic goals based on the supranormal oxygen transport values of high-risk postoperative survivors; (3) compare the relative effectiveness of alternative therapies in a wide variety of clinical and physiologic conditions; and (4) to develop criteria for titration of therapy to the endpoints of the supranormal optimal goals using cardiac index (CI), oxygen delivery (DO2), and oxygen consumption (VO2) as proxy outcome measures. Second, a general purpose algorithm was generated from these data and tested in preoperatively randomized clinical trials of high-risk surgical patients. Improved outcome was demonstrated with this generalized algorithm. The concept that the supranormal values represent compensations that have survival value has been corroborated by several other groups. We now propose a unique approach to refine the generalized algorithm to develop customized algorithms and individualized decision analysis for each patient's unique problems. The present article describes a preliminary evaluation of the feasibility of artificial intelligence techniques to accomplish individualized algorithms that may further improve patient care and outcome.

  5. Risk Prediction Models for Incident Heart Failure: A Systematic Review of Methodology and Model Performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahle, Berhe W; Owen, Alice J; Chin, Ken Lee; Reid, Christopher M

    2017-09-01

    Numerous models predicting the risk of incident heart failure (HF) have been developed; however, evidence of their methodological rigor and reporting remains unclear. This study critically appraises the methods underpinning incident HF risk prediction models. EMBASE and PubMed were searched for articles published between 1990 and June 2016 that reported at least 1 multivariable model for prediction of HF. Model development information, including study design, variable coding, missing data, and predictor selection, was extracted. Nineteen studies reporting 40 risk prediction models were included. Existing models have acceptable discriminative ability (C-statistics > 0.70), although only 6 models were externally validated. Candidate variable selection was based on statistical significance from a univariate screening in 11 models, whereas it was unclear in 12 models. Continuous predictors were retained in 16 models, whereas it was unclear how continuous variables were handled in 16 models. Missing values were excluded in 19 of 23 models that reported missing data, and the number of events per variable was models. Only 2 models presented recommended regression equations. There was significant heterogeneity in discriminative ability of models with respect to age (P prediction models that had sufficient discriminative ability, although few are externally validated. Methods not recommended for the conduct and reporting of risk prediction modeling were frequently used, and resulting algorithms should be applied with caution. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. PREDICT-PD: An online approach to prospectively identify risk indicators of Parkinson's disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noyce, Alastair J; R'Bibo, Lea; Peress, Luisa; Bestwick, Jonathan P; Adams-Carr, Kerala L; Mencacci, Niccolo E; Hawkes, Christopher H; Masters, Joseph M; Wood, Nicholas; Hardy, John; Giovannoni, Gavin; Lees, Andrew J; Schrag, Anette

    2017-02-01

    A number of early features can precede the diagnosis of Parkinson's disease (PD). To test an online, evidence-based algorithm to identify risk indicators of PD in the UK population. Participants aged 60 to 80 years without PD completed an online survey and keyboard-tapping task annually over 3 years, and underwent smell tests and genotyping for glucocerebrosidase (GBA) and leucine-rich repeat kinase 2 (LRRK2) mutations. Risk scores were calculated based on the results of a systematic review of risk factors and early features of PD, and individuals were grouped into higher (above 15th centile), medium, and lower risk groups (below 85th centile). Previously defined indicators of increased risk of PD ("intermediate markers"), including smell loss, rapid eye movement-sleep behavior disorder, and finger-tapping speed, and incident PD were used as outcomes. The correlation of risk scores with intermediate markers and movement of individuals between risk groups was assessed each year and prospectively. Exploratory Cox regression analyses with incident PD as the dependent variable were performed. A total of 1323 participants were recruited at baseline and >79% completed assessments each year. Annual risk scores were correlated with intermediate markers of PD each year and baseline scores were correlated with intermediate markers during follow-up (all P values < 0.001). Incident PD diagnoses during follow-up were significantly associated with baseline risk score (hazard ratio = 4.39, P = .045). GBA variants or G2019S LRRK2 mutations were found in 47 participants, and the predictive power for incident PD was improved by the addition of genetic variants to risk scores. The online PREDICT-PD algorithm is a unique and simple method to identify indicators of PD risk. © 2017 The Authors. Movement Disorders published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society. © 2016 International Parkinson and Movement Disorder

  7. Hidden State Prediction: a modification of classic ancestral state reconstruction algorithms helps unravel complex symbioses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jesse Robert Zaneveld

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Complex symbioses between animal or plant hosts and their associated microbiotas can involve thousands of species and millions of genes. Because of the number of interacting partners, it is often impractical to study all organisms or genes in these host-microbe symbioses individually. Yet new phylogenetic predictive methods can use the wealth of accumulated data on diverse model organisms to make inferences into the properties of less well-studied species and gene families. Predictive functional profiling methods use evolutionary models based on the properties of studied relatives to put bounds on the likely characteristics of an organism or gene that has not yet been studied in detail. These techniques have been applied to predict diverse features of host-associated microbial communities ranging from the enzymatic function of uncharacterized genes to the gene content of uncultured microorganisms. We consider these phylogenetically-informed predictive techniques from disparate fields as examples of a general class of algorithms for Hidden State Prediction (HSP, and argue that HSP methods have broad value in predicting organismal traits in a variety of contexts, including the study of complex host-microbe symbioses.

  8. Hidden state prediction: a modification of classic ancestral state reconstruction algorithms helps unravel complex symbioses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaneveld, Jesse R R; Thurber, Rebecca L V

    2014-01-01

    Complex symbioses between animal or plant hosts and their associated microbiotas can involve thousands of species and millions of genes. Because of the number of interacting partners, it is often impractical to study all organisms or genes in these host-microbe symbioses individually. Yet new phylogenetic predictive methods can use the wealth of accumulated data on diverse model organisms to make inferences into the properties of less well-studied species and gene families. Predictive functional profiling methods use evolutionary models based on the properties of studied relatives to put bounds on the likely characteristics of an organism or gene that has not yet been studied in detail. These techniques have been applied to predict diverse features of host-associated microbial communities ranging from the enzymatic function of uncharacterized genes to the gene content of uncultured microorganisms. We consider these phylogenetically informed predictive techniques from disparate fields as examples of a general class of algorithms for Hidden State Prediction (HSP), and argue that HSP methods have broad value in predicting organismal traits in a variety of contexts, including the study of complex host-microbe symbioses.

  9. BetaTPred: prediction of beta-TURNS in a protein using statistical algorithms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaur, Harpreet; Raghava, G P S

    2002-03-01

    beta-turns play an important role from a structural and functional point of view. beta-turns are the most common type of non-repetitive structures in proteins and comprise on average, 25% of the residues. In the past numerous methods have been developed to predict beta-turns in a protein. Most of these prediction methods are based on statistical approaches. In order to utilize the full potential of these methods, there is a need to develop a web server. This paper describes a web server called BetaTPred, developed for predicting beta-TURNS in a protein from its amino acid sequence. BetaTPred allows the user to predict turns in a protein using existing statistical algorithms. It also allows to predict different types of beta-TURNS e.g. type I, I', II, II', VI, VIII and non-specific. This server assists the users in predicting the consensus beta-TURNS in a protein. The server is accessible from http://imtech.res.in/raghava/betatpred/

  10. A fast EM algorithm for BayesA-like prediction of genomic breeding values.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaochen Sun

    Full Text Available Prediction accuracies of estimated breeding values for economically important traits are expected to benefit from genomic information. Single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP panels used in genomic prediction are increasing in density, but the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC estimation of SNP effects can be quite time consuming or slow to converge when a large number of SNPs are fitted simultaneously in a linear mixed model. Here we present an EM algorithm (termed "fastBayesA" without MCMC. This fastBayesA approach treats the variances of SNP effects as missing data and uses a joint posterior mode of effects compared to the commonly used BayesA which bases predictions on posterior means of effects. In each EM iteration, SNP effects are predicted as a linear combination of best linear unbiased predictions of breeding values from a mixed linear animal model that incorporates a weighted marker-based realized relationship matrix. Method fastBayesA converges after a few iterations to a joint posterior mode of SNP effects under the BayesA model. When applied to simulated quantitative traits with a range of genetic architectures, fastBayesA is shown to predict GEBV as accurately as BayesA but with less computing effort per SNP than BayesA. Method fastBayesA can be used as a computationally efficient substitute for BayesA, especially when an increasing number of markers bring unreasonable computational burden or slow convergence to MCMC approaches.

  11. Does the Risk Assessment and Prediction Tool Predict Discharge Disposition After Joint Replacement?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Viktor J.; Gromov, Kirill; Lebrun, Lauren M

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Payers of health services and policymakers place a major focus on cost containment in health care. Studies have shown that early planning of discharge is essential in reducing length of stay and achieving financial benefit; tools that can help predict discharge disposition would...... populations is unknown. A low RAPT score is reported to indicate a high risk of needing any form of inpatient rehabilitation after TJA, including short-term nursing facilities. QUESTIONS/PURPOSES: This study attempts (1) to assess predictive accuracy of the RAPT on US patients undergoing total hip and knee....... Based on our findings, the risk categories in our populations should be high risk intermediate risk 7 to 10, and low risk > 10. CONCLUSIONS: The RAPT accurately predicted discharge disposition for high- and low-risk patients in our cohort. Based on our data, intermediate-risk patients should...

  12. An Ensemble Nonlinear Model Predictive Control Algorithm in an Artificial Pancreas for People with Type 1 Diabetes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boiroux, Dimitri; Hagdrup, Morten; Mahmoudi, Zeinab

    2016-01-01

    patients with different physiological parameters and a time-varying insulin sensitivity using the Medtronic Virtual Patient (MVP) model. We augment the MVP model with stochastic diffusion terms, time-varying insulin sensitivity and noise-corrupted CGM measurements. We consider meal challenges where......This paper presents a novel ensemble nonlinear model predictive control (NMPC) algorithm for glucose regulation in type 1 diabetes. In this approach, we consider a number of scenarios describing different uncertainties, for instance meals or metabolic variations. We simulate a population of 9...... the uncertainty in meal size is ±50%. Numerical results show that the ensemble NMPC reduces the risk of hypoglycemia compared to standard NMPC in the case where the meal size is overestimated or correctly estimated at the expense of a slightly increased number of hyperglycemia. Therefore, ensemble MPC...

  13. A new avenue for classification and prediction of olive cultivars using supervised and unsupervised algorithms.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amir H Beiki

    Full Text Available Various methods have been used to identify cultivares of olive trees; herein we used different bioinformatics algorithms to propose new tools to classify 10 cultivares of olive based on RAPD and ISSR genetic markers datasets generated from PCR reactions. Five RAPD markers (OPA0a21, OPD16a, OP01a1, OPD16a1 and OPA0a8 and five ISSR markers (UBC841a4, UBC868a7, UBC841a14, U12BC807a and UBC810a13 selected as the most important markers by all attribute weighting models. K-Medoids unsupervised clustering run on SVM dataset was fully able to cluster each olive cultivar to the right classes. All trees (176 induced by decision tree models generated meaningful trees and UBC841a4 attribute clearly distinguished between foreign and domestic olive cultivars with 100% accuracy. Predictive machine learning algorithms (SVM and Naïve Bayes were also able to predict the right class of olive cultivares with 100% accuracy. For the first time, our results showed data mining techniques can be effectively used to distinguish between plant cultivares and proposed machine learning based systems in this study can predict new olive cultivars with the best possible accuracy.

  14. Development of Predictive QSAR Models of 4-Thiazolidinones Antitrypanosomal Activity using Modern Machine Learning Algorithms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kryshchyshyn, Anna; Devinyak, Oleg; Kaminskyy, Danylo; Grellier, Philippe; Lesyk, Roman

    2017-11-14

    This paper presents novel QSAR models for the prediction of antitrypanosomal activity among thiazolidines and related heterocycles. The performance of four machine learning algorithms: Random Forest regression, Stochastic gradient boosting, Multivariate adaptive regression splines and Gaussian processes regression have been studied in order to reach better levels of predictivity. The results for Random Forest and Gaussian processes regression are comparable and outperform other studied methods. The preliminary descriptor selection with Boruta method improved the outcome of machine learning methods. The two novel QSAR-models developed with Random Forest and Gaussian processes regression algorithms have good predictive ability, which was proved by the external evaluation of the test set with corresponding Q 2 ext =0.812 and Q 2 ext =0.830. The obtained models can be used further for in silico screening of virtual libraries in the same chemical domain in order to find new antitrypanosomal agents. Thorough analysis of descriptors influence in the QSAR models and interpretation of their chemical meaning allows to highlight a number of structure-activity relationships. The presence of phenyl rings with electron-withdrawing atoms or groups in para-position, increased number of aromatic rings, high branching but short chains, high HOMO energy, and the introduction of 1-substituted 2-indolyl fragment into the molecular structure have been recognized as trypanocidal activity prerequisites. © 2017 Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  15. A parallel adaptive mesh refinement algorithm for predicting turbulent non-premixed combusting flows

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gao, X.; Groth, C.P.T.

    2005-01-01

    A parallel adaptive mesh refinement (AMR) algorithm is proposed for predicting turbulent non-premixed combusting flows characteristic of gas turbine engine combustors. The Favre-averaged Navier-Stokes equations governing mixture and species transport for a reactive mixture of thermally perfect gases in two dimensions, the two transport equations of the κ-ψ turbulence model, and the time-averaged species transport equations, are all solved using a fully coupled finite-volume formulation. A flexible block-based hierarchical data structure is used to maintain the connectivity of the solution blocks in the multi-block mesh and facilitate automatic solution-directed mesh adaptation according to physics-based refinement criteria. This AMR approach allows for anisotropic mesh refinement and the block-based data structure readily permits efficient and scalable implementations of the algorithm on multi-processor architectures. Numerical results for turbulent non-premixed diffusion flames, including cold- and hot-flow predictions for a bluff body burner, are described and compared to available experimental data. The numerical results demonstrate the validity and potential of the parallel AMR approach for predicting complex non-premixed turbulent combusting flows. (author)

  16. Diagnosis and prediction of periodontally compromised teeth using a deep learning-based convolutional neural network algorithm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jae-Hong; Kim, Do-Hyung; Jeong, Seong-Nyum; Choi, Seong-Ho

    2018-04-01

    The aim of the current study was to develop a computer-assisted detection system based on a deep convolutional neural network (CNN) algorithm and to evaluate the potential usefulness and accuracy of this system for the diagnosis and prediction of periodontally compromised teeth (PCT). Combining pretrained deep CNN architecture and a self-trained network, periapical radiographic images were used to determine the optimal CNN algorithm and weights. The diagnostic and predictive accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, area under the ROC curve, confusion matrix, and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using our deep CNN algorithm, based on a Keras framework in Python. The periapical radiographic dataset was split into training (n=1,044), validation (n=348), and test (n=348) datasets. With the deep learning algorithm, the diagnostic accuracy for PCT was 81.0% for premolars and 76.7% for molars. Using 64 premolars and 64 molars that were clinically diagnosed as severe PCT, the accuracy of predicting extraction was 82.8% (95% CI, 70.1%-91.2%) for premolars and 73.4% (95% CI, 59.9%-84.0%) for molars. We demonstrated that the deep CNN algorithm was useful for assessing the diagnosis and predictability of PCT. Therefore, with further optimization of the PCT dataset and improvements in the algorithm, a computer-aided detection system can be expected to become an effective and efficient method of diagnosing and predicting PCT.

  17. PREDICTION OF SURGICAL TREATMENT WITH POUR PERITONITIS QUANTIFYING RISK FACTORS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    І. К. Churpiy

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Explored the possibility of quantitative assessment of risk factors of complications in the treatment of diffuse peritonitis. Highlighted 53 groups of features that are important in predicting the course of diffuse peritonitis. The proposed scheme of defining the risk of clinical course of diffuse peritonitis can quantify the severity of the source of patients and in most cases correctly predict the results of treatment of disease.

  18. Predicting microRNA precursors with a generalized Gaussian components based density estimation algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wu Chi-Yeh

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background MicroRNAs (miRNAs are short non-coding RNA molecules, which play an important role in post-transcriptional regulation of gene expression. There have been many efforts to discover miRNA precursors (pre-miRNAs over the years. Recently, ab initio approaches have attracted more attention because they do not depend on homology information and provide broader applications than comparative approaches. Kernel based classifiers such as support vector machine (SVM are extensively adopted in these ab initio approaches due to the prediction performance they achieved. On the other hand, logic based classifiers such as decision tree, of which the constructed model is interpretable, have attracted less attention. Results This article reports the design of a predictor of pre-miRNAs with a novel kernel based classifier named the generalized Gaussian density estimator (G2DE based classifier. The G2DE is a kernel based algorithm designed to provide interpretability by utilizing a few but representative kernels for constructing the classification model. The performance of the proposed predictor has been evaluated with 692 human pre-miRNAs and has been compared with two kernel based and two logic based classifiers. The experimental results show that the proposed predictor is capable of achieving prediction performance comparable to those delivered by the prevailing kernel based classification algorithms, while providing the user with an overall picture of the distribution of the data set. Conclusion Software predictors that identify pre-miRNAs in genomic sequences have been exploited by biologists to facilitate molecular biology research in recent years. The G2DE employed in this study can deliver prediction accuracy comparable with the state-of-the-art kernel based machine learning algorithms. Furthermore, biologists can obtain valuable insights about the different characteristics of the sequences of pre-miRNAs with the models generated by the G

  19. Improved feature selection based on genetic algorithms for real time disruption prediction on JET

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ratta, G.A., E-mail: garatta@gateme.unsj.edu.ar [GATEME, Facultad de Ingenieria, Universidad Nacional de San Juan, Avda. San Martin 1109 (O), 5400 San Juan (Argentina); JET EFDA, Culham Science Centre, OX14 3DB Abingdon (United Kingdom); Vega, J. [Asociacion EURATOM/CIEMAT para Fusion, Avda. Complutense, 40, 28040 Madrid (Spain); JET EFDA, Culham Science Centre, OX14 3DB Abingdon (United Kingdom); Murari, A. [Associazione EURATOM-ENEA per la Fusione, Consorzio RFX, 4-35127 Padova (Italy); JET EFDA, Culham Science Centre, OX14 3DB Abingdon (United Kingdom)

    2012-09-15

    Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer A new signal selection methodology to improve disruption prediction is reported. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The approach is based on Genetic Algorithms. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer An advanced predictor has been created with the new set of signals. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The new system obtains considerably higher prediction rates. - Abstract: The early prediction of disruptions is an important aspect of the research in the field of Tokamak control. A very recent predictor, called 'Advanced Predictor Of Disruptions' (APODIS), developed for the 'Joint European Torus' (JET), implements the real time recognition of incoming disruptions with the best success rate achieved ever and an outstanding stability for long periods following training. In this article, a new methodology to select the set of the signals' parameters in order to maximize the performance of the predictor is reported. The approach is based on 'Genetic Algorithms' (GAs). With the feature selection derived from GAs, a new version of APODIS has been developed. The results are significantly better than the previous version not only in terms of success rates but also in extending the interval before the disruption in which reliable predictions are achieved. Correct disruption predictions with a success rate in excess of 90% have been achieved 200 ms before the time of the disruption. The predictor response is compared with that of JET's Protection System (JPS) and the ADODIS predictor is shown to be far superior. Both systems have been carefully tested with a wide number of discharges to understand their relative merits and the most profitable directions of further improvements.

  20. Predicting How Close Near-Earth Asteroids Will Come to Earth in the Next Five Years Using Only Kepler's Algorithm

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Wright, Melissa

    1998-01-01

    .... The goal of th is investigation was to see if using only Kepler's algorithm, which ignores the gravitational pull of other planets, our moon, and Jupiter, was sufficient to predict close encounters with Earth...

  1. Secondary Structure Prediction of Protein using Resilient Back Propagation Learning Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jyotshna Dongardive

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper proposes a neural network based approach to predict secondary structure of protein. It uses Multilayer Feed Forward Network (MLFN with resilient back propagation as the learning algorithm. Point Accepted Mutation (PAM is adopted as the encoding scheme and CB396 data set is used for the training and testing of the network. Overall accuracy of the network has been experimentally calculated with different window sizes for the sliding window scheme and by varying the number of units in the hidden layer. The best results were obtained with eleven as the window size and seven as the number of units in the hidden layer.

  2. QIKAIM, a fast seminumerical algorithm for the generation of minute-of-arc accuracy satellite predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vermeer, M.

    1981-07-01

    A program was designed to replace AIMLASER for the generation of aiming predictions, to achieve a major saving in computing time, and to keep the program small enough for use even on small systems. An approach was adopted that incorporated the numerical integration of the orbit through a pass, limiting the computation of osculating elements to only one point per pass. The numerical integration method which is fourth order in delta t in the cumulative error after a given time lapse is presented. Algorithms are explained and a flowchart and listing of the program are provided.

  3. Predicting child maltreatment: A meta-analysis of the predictive validity of risk assessment instruments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Put, Claudia E; Assink, Mark; Boekhout van Solinge, Noëlle F

    2017-11-01

    Risk assessment is crucial in preventing child maltreatment since it can identify high-risk cases in need of child protection intervention. Despite widespread use of risk assessment instruments in child welfare, it is unknown how well these instruments predict maltreatment and what instrument characteristics are associated with higher levels of predictive validity. Therefore, a multilevel meta-analysis was conducted to examine the predictive accuracy of (characteristics of) risk assessment instruments. A literature search yielded 30 independent studies (N=87,329) examining the predictive validity of 27 different risk assessment instruments. From these studies, 67 effect sizes could be extracted. Overall, a medium significant effect was found (AUC=0.681), indicating a moderate predictive accuracy. Moderator analyses revealed that onset of maltreatment can be better predicted than recurrence of maltreatment, which is a promising finding for early detection and prevention of child maltreatment. In addition, actuarial instruments were found to outperform clinical instruments. To bring risk and needs assessment in child welfare to a higher level, actuarial instruments should be further developed and strengthened by distinguishing risk assessment from needs assessment and by integrating risk assessment with case management. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Forecasting pulsatory motion for non-invasive cardiac radiosurgery: an analysis of algorithms from respiratory motion prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ernst, Floris; Bruder, Ralf; Schlaefer, Alexander; Schweikard, Achim

    2011-01-01

    Recently, radiosurgical treatment of cardiac arrhythmia, especially atrial fibrillation, has been proposed. Using the CyberKnife, focussed radiation will be used to create ablation lines on the beating heart to block unwanted electrical activity. Since this procedure requires high accuracy, the inevitable latency of the system (i.e., the robotic manipulator following the motion of the heart) has to be compensated for. We examine the applicability of prediction algorithms developed for respiratory motion prediction to the prediction of pulsatory motion. We evaluated the MULIN, nLMS, wLMS, SVRpred and EKF algorithms. The test data used has been recorded using external infrared position sensors, 3D ultrasound and the NavX catheter systems. With this data, we have shown that the error from latency can be reduced by at least 10 and as much as 75% (44% average), depending on the type of signal. It has also been shown that, although the SVRpred algorithm was successful in most cases, it was outperformed by the simple nLMS algorithm, the EKF or the wLMS algorithm in a number of cases. We have shown that prediction of cardiac motion is possible and that the algorithms known from respiratory motion prediction are applicable. Since pulsation is more regular than respiration, more research will have to be done to improve frequency-tracking algorithms, like the EKF method, which performed better than expected from their behaviour on respiratory motion traces.

  5. Population-Level Prediction of Type 2 Diabetes From Claims Data and Analysis of Risk Factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Razavian, Narges; Blecker, Saul; Schmidt, Ann Marie; Smith-McLallen, Aaron; Nigam, Somesh; Sontag, David

    2015-12-01

    prediction for type 2 diabetes using readily available administrative data is feasible and has better prediction performance than classical diabetes risk prediction algorithms on very large populations with missing data. The new model enables intervention allocation at national scale quickly and accurately and recovers potentially novel risk factors at different stages before the disease onset.

  6. PREDICTION OF WATER QUALITY INDEX USING BACK PROPAGATION NETWORK ALGORITHM. CASE STUDY: GOMBAK RIVER

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    FARIS GORASHI

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to enable prediction of water quality parameters with conjunction to land use attributes and to find a low-end alternative for water quality monitoring techniques, which are typically expensive and tedious. It also aims to ensure sustainable development, which is essentially has effects on water quality. The research approach followed in this study is via using artificial neural networks, and geographical information system to provide a reliable prediction model. Back propagation network algorithm was used for the purpose of this study. The proposed approach minimized most of anomalies associated with prediction methods and provided water quality prediction with precision. The study used 5 hidden nodes in this network. The network was optimized to complete 23145 cycles before it reaches the best error of 0.65. Stations 18 had shown the greatest fluctuation among the three stations as it reflects an area of on-going rapid development of Gombak river watershed. The results had shown a very close prediction with best error of 0.67 in a sensitivity test that was carried afterwards.

  7. A combination of compositional index and genetic algorithm for predicting transmembrane helical segments.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nazar Zaki

    Full Text Available Transmembrane helix (TMH topology prediction is becoming a focal problem in bioinformatics because the structure of TM proteins is difficult to determine using experimental methods. Therefore, methods that can computationally predict the topology of helical membrane proteins are highly desirable. In this paper we introduce TMHindex, a method for detecting TMH segments using only the amino acid sequence information. Each amino acid in a protein sequence is represented by a Compositional Index, which is deduced from a combination of the difference in amino acid occurrences in TMH and non-TMH segments in training protein sequences and the amino acid composition information. Furthermore, a genetic algorithm was employed to find the optimal threshold value for the separation of TMH segments from non-TMH segments. The method successfully predicted 376 out of the 378 TMH segments in a dataset consisting of 70 test protein sequences. The sensitivity and specificity for classifying each amino acid in every protein sequence in the dataset was 0.901 and 0.865, respectively. To assess the generality of TMHindex, we also tested the approach on another standard 73-protein 3D helix dataset. TMHindex correctly predicted 91.8% of proteins based on TM segments. The level of the accuracy achieved using TMHindex in comparison to other recent approaches for predicting the topology of TM proteins is a strong argument in favor of our proposed method.The datasets, software together with supplementary materials are available at: http://faculty.uaeu.ac.ae/nzaki/TMHindex.htm.

  8. Obesity Risk Prediction among Women of Upper Egypt: The impact ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Obesity Risk Prediction among Women of Upper Egypt: The impact of FTO ... with increased obesity risk but there is a lack of association with diabetes. ... (as certain foods or gene therapy) will prevent the percentage of women who is affected ...

  9. A Novel Approach for Blast-Induced Flyrock Prediction Based on Imperialist Competitive Algorithm and Artificial Neural Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marto, Aminaton; Jahed Armaghani, Danial; Tonnizam Mohamad, Edy; Makhtar, Ahmad Mahir

    2014-01-01

    Flyrock is one of the major disturbances induced by blasting which may cause severe damage to nearby structures. This phenomenon has to be precisely predicted and subsequently controlled through the changing in the blast design to minimize potential risk of blasting. The scope of this study is to predict flyrock induced by blasting through a novel approach based on the combination of imperialist competitive algorithm (ICA) and artificial neural network (ANN). For this purpose, the parameters of 113 blasting operations were accurately recorded and flyrock distances were measured for each operation. By applying the sensitivity analysis, maximum charge per delay and powder factor were determined as the most influential parameters on flyrock. In the light of this analysis, two new empirical predictors were developed to predict flyrock distance. For a comparison purpose, a predeveloped backpropagation (BP) ANN was developed and the results were compared with those of the proposed ICA-ANN model and empirical predictors. The results clearly showed the superiority of the proposed ICA-ANN model in comparison with the proposed BP-ANN model and empirical approaches. PMID:25147856

  10. A Novel Approach for Blast-Induced Flyrock Prediction Based on Imperialist Competitive Algorithm and Artificial Neural Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aminaton Marto

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Flyrock is one of the major disturbances induced by blasting which may cause severe damage to nearby structures. This phenomenon has to be precisely predicted and subsequently controlled through the changing in the blast design to minimize potential risk of blasting. The scope of this study is to predict flyrock induced by blasting through a novel approach based on the combination of imperialist competitive algorithm (ICA and artificial neural network (ANN. For this purpose, the parameters of 113 blasting operations were accurately recorded and flyrock distances were measured for each operation. By applying the sensitivity analysis, maximum charge per delay and powder factor were determined as the most influential parameters on flyrock. In the light of this analysis, two new empirical predictors were developed to predict flyrock distance. For a comparison purpose, a predeveloped backpropagation (BP ANN was developed and the results were compared with those of the proposed ICA-ANN model and empirical predictors. The results clearly showed the superiority of the proposed ICA-ANN model in comparison with the proposed BP-ANN model and empirical approaches.

  11. A Rule-Based Model for Bankruptcy Prediction Based on an Improved Genetic Ant Colony Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yudong Zhang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we proposed a hybrid system to predict corporate bankruptcy. The whole procedure consists of the following four stages: first, sequential forward selection was used to extract the most important features; second, a rule-based model was chosen to fit the given dataset since it can present physical meaning; third, a genetic ant colony algorithm (GACA was introduced; the fitness scaling strategy and the chaotic operator were incorporated with GACA, forming a new algorithm—fitness-scaling chaotic GACA (FSCGACA, which was used to seek the optimal parameters of the rule-based model; and finally, the stratified K-fold cross-validation technique was used to enhance the generalization of the model. Simulation experiments of 1000 corporations’ data collected from 2006 to 2009 demonstrated that the proposed model was effective. It selected the 5 most important factors as “net income to stock broker’s equality,” “quick ratio,” “retained earnings to total assets,” “stockholders’ equity to total assets,” and “financial expenses to sales.” The total misclassification error of the proposed FSCGACA was only 7.9%, exceeding the results of genetic algorithm (GA, ant colony algorithm (ACA, and GACA. The average computation time of the model is 2.02 s.

  12. Prediction of Effective Drug Combinations by an Improved Naïve Bayesian Algorithm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bai, Li-Yue; Dai, Hao; Xu, Qin; Junaid, Muhammad; Peng, Shao-Liang; Zhu, Xiaolei; Xiong, Yi; Wei, Dong-Qing

    2018-02-05

    Drug combinatorial therapy is a promising strategy for combating complex diseases due to its fewer side effects, lower toxicity and better efficacy. However, it is not feasible to determine all the effective drug combinations in the vast space of possible combinations given the increasing number of approved drugs in the market, since the experimental methods for identification of effective drug combinations are both labor- and time-consuming. In this study, we conducted systematic analysis of various types of features to characterize pairs of drugs. These features included information about the targets of the drugs, the pathway in which the target protein of a drug was involved in, side effects of drugs, metabolic enzymes of the drugs, and drug transporters. The latter two features (metabolic enzymes and drug transporters) were related to the metabolism and transportation properties of drugs, which were not analyzed or used in previous studies. Then, we devised a novel improved naïve Bayesian algorithm to construct classification models to predict effective drug combinations by using the individual types of features mentioned above. Our results indicated that the performance of our proposed method was indeed better than the naïve Bayesian algorithm and other conventional classification algorithms such as support vector machine and K-nearest neighbor.

  13. Prediction of Effective Drug Combinations by an Improved Naïve Bayesian Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li-Yue Bai

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Drug combinatorial therapy is a promising strategy for combating complex diseases due to its fewer side effects, lower toxicity and better efficacy. However, it is not feasible to determine all the effective drug combinations in the vast space of possible combinations given the increasing number of approved drugs in the market, since the experimental methods for identification of effective drug combinations are both labor- and time-consuming. In this study, we conducted systematic analysis of various types of features to characterize pairs of drugs. These features included information about the targets of the drugs, the pathway in which the target protein of a drug was involved in, side effects of drugs, metabolic enzymes of the drugs, and drug transporters. The latter two features (metabolic enzymes and drug transporters were related to the metabolism and transportation properties of drugs, which were not analyzed or used in previous studies. Then, we devised a novel improved naïve Bayesian algorithm to construct classification models to predict effective drug combinations by using the individual types of features mentioned above. Our results indicated that the performance of our proposed method was indeed better than the naïve Bayesian algorithm and other conventional classification algorithms such as support vector machine and K-nearest neighbor.

  14. Dynamic Heat Supply Prediction Using Support Vector Regression Optimized by Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meiping Wang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available We developed an effective intelligent model to predict the dynamic heat supply of heat source. A hybrid forecasting method was proposed based on support vector regression (SVR model-optimized particle swarm optimization (PSO algorithms. Due to the interaction of meteorological conditions and the heating parameters of heating system, it is extremely difficult to forecast dynamic heat supply. Firstly, the correlations among heat supply and related influencing factors in the heating system were analyzed through the correlation analysis of statistical theory. Then, the SVR model was employed to forecast dynamic heat supply. In the model, the input variables were selected based on the correlation analysis and three crucial parameters, including the penalties factor, gamma of the kernel RBF, and insensitive loss function, were optimized by PSO algorithms. The optimized SVR model was compared with the basic SVR, optimized genetic algorithm-SVR (GA-SVR, and artificial neural network (ANN through six groups of experiment data from two heat sources. The results of the correlation coefficient analysis revealed the relationship between the influencing factors and the forecasted heat supply and determined the input variables. The performance of the PSO-SVR model is superior to those of the other three models. The PSO-SVR method is statistically robust and can be applied to practical heating system.

  15. Wind Power Grid Connected Capacity Prediction Using LSSVM Optimized by the Bat Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qunli Wu

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Given the stochastic nature of wind, wind power grid-connected capacity prediction plays an essential role in coping with the challenge of balancing supply and demand. Accurate forecasting methods make enormous contribution to mapping wind power strategy, power dispatching and sustainable development of wind power industry. This study proposes a bat algorithm (BA–least squares support vector machine (LSSVM hybrid model to improve prediction performance. In order to select input of LSSVM effectively, Stationarity, Cointegration and Granger causality tests are conducted to examine the influence of installed capacity with different lags, and partial autocorrelation analysis is employed to investigate the inner relationship of grid-connected capacity. The parameters in LSSVM are optimized by BA to validate the learning ability and generalization of LSSVM. Multiple model sufficiency evaluation methods are utilized. The research results reveal that the accuracy improvement of the present approach can reach about 20% compared to other single or hybrid models.

  16. Application of genetic algorithm - multiple linear regressions to predict the activity of RSK inhibitors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Avval Zhila Mohajeri

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with developing a linear quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR model for predicting the RSK inhibition activity of some new compounds. A dataset consisting of 62 pyrazino [1,2-α] indole, diazepino [1,2-α] indole, and imidazole derivatives with known inhibitory activities was used. Multiple linear regressions (MLR technique combined with the stepwise (SW and the genetic algorithm (GA methods as variable selection tools was employed. For more checking stability, robustness and predictability of the proposed models, internal and external validation techniques were used. Comparison of the results obtained, indicate that the GA-MLR model is superior to the SW-MLR model and that it isapplicable for designing novel RSK inhibitors.

  17. Earthquake prediction in California using regression algorithms and cloud-based big data infrastructure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asencio-Cortés, G.; Morales-Esteban, A.; Shang, X.; Martínez-Álvarez, F.

    2018-06-01

    Earthquake magnitude prediction is a challenging problem that has been widely studied during the last decades. Statistical, geophysical and machine learning approaches can be found in literature, with no particularly satisfactory results. In recent years, powerful computational techniques to analyze big data have emerged, making possible the analysis of massive datasets. These new methods make use of physical resources like cloud based architectures. California is known for being one of the regions with highest seismic activity in the world and many data are available. In this work, the use of several regression algorithms combined with ensemble learning is explored in the context of big data (1 GB catalog is used), in order to predict earthquakes magnitude within the next seven days. Apache Spark framework, H2 O library in R language and Amazon cloud infrastructure were been used, reporting very promising results.

  18. The Role of Risk Aversion in Predicting Individual Behaviours

    OpenAIRE

    Guiso, Luigi; Paiella, Monica

    2004-01-01

    We use household survey data to construct a direct measure of absolute risk aversion based on the maximum price a consumer is willing to pay to buy a risky asset. We relate this measure to a set of consumers’ decisions that in theory should vary with attitude towards risk. We find that elicited risk aversion has considerable predictive power for a number of key household decisions such as choice of occupation, portfolio selection, moving decisions and exposure to chronic diseases in ways cons...

  19. The Role of Risk Aversion in Predicting Individual Behaviour

    OpenAIRE

    Monica Paiella; Luigi Guiso

    2004-01-01

    We use household survey data to construct a direct measure of absolute risk aversion based on the maximum price a consumer is willing to pay to buy a risky asset. We relate this measure to a set of consumers' decisions that in theory should vary with attitude towards risk. We find that elicited risk aversion has considerable predictive power for a number of key household decisions such as choice of occupation, portfolio selection, moving decisions and exposure to chronic diseases in ways cons...

  20. Risk avoidance in sympatric large carnivores: reactive or predictive?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broekhuis, Femke; Cozzi, Gabriele; Valeix, Marion; McNutt, John W; Macdonald, David W

    2013-09-01

    1. Risks of predation or interference competition are major factors shaping the distribution of species. An animal's response to risk can either be reactive, to an immediate risk, or predictive, based on preceding risk or past experiences. The manner in which animals respond to risk is key in understanding avoidance, and hence coexistence, between interacting species. 2. We investigated whether cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus), known to be affected by predation and competition by lions (Panthera leo) and spotted hyaenas (Crocuta crocuta), respond reactively or predictively to the risks posed by these larger carnivores. 3. We used simultaneous spatial data from Global Positioning System (GPS) radiocollars deployed on all known social groups of cheetahs, lions and spotted hyaenas within a 2700 km(2) study area on the periphery of the Okavango Delta in northern Botswana. The response to risk of encountering lions and spotted hyaenas was explored on three levels: short-term or immediate risk, calculated as the distance to the nearest (contemporaneous) lion or spotted hyaena, long-term risk, calculated as the likelihood of encountering lions and spotted hyaenas based on their cumulative distributions over a 6-month period and habitat-associated risk, quantified by the habitat used by each of the three species. 4. We showed that space and habitat use by cheetahs was similar to that of lions and, to a lesser extent, spotted hyaenas. However, cheetahs avoided immediate risks by positioning themselves further from lions and spotted hyaenas than predicted by a random distribution. 5. Our results suggest that cheetah spatial distribution is a hierarchical process, first driven by resource acquisition and thereafter fine-tuned by predator avoidance; thus suggesting a reactive, rather than a predictive, response to risk. © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2013 British Ecological Society.

  1. Earthquake Prediction Analysis Based on Empirical Seismic Rate: The M8 Algorithm

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Molchan, G.; Romashkova, L.

    2010-07-01

    The quality of space-time earthquake prediction is usually characterized by a two-dimensional error diagram (n,τ), where n is the rate of failures-to-predict and τ is the normalized measure of space-time alarm. The most reasonable space measure for analysis of a prediction strategy is the rate of target events λ(dg) in a sub-area dg. In that case the quantity H = 1-(n +τ) determines the prediction capability of the strategy. The uncertainty of λ(dg) causes difficulties in estimating H and the statistical significance, α, of prediction results. We investigate this problem theoretically and show how the uncertainty of the measure can be taken into account in two situations, viz., the estimation of α and the construction of a confidence zone for the (n,τ)-parameters of the random strategies. We use our approach to analyse the results from prediction of M ≥ 8.0 events by the M8 method for the period 1985-2009 (the M8.0+ test). The model of λ(dg) based on the events Mw ≥ 5.5, 1977-2004, and the magnitude range of target events 8.0 ≤ M < 8.5 are considered as basic to this M8 analysis. We find the point and upper estimates of α and show that they are still unstable because the number of target events in the experiment is small. However, our results argue in favour of non-triviality of the M8 prediction algorithm. (author)

  2. Earthquake prediction analysis based on empirical seismic rate: the M8 algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molchan, G.; Romashkova, L.

    2010-12-01

    The quality of space-time earthquake prediction is usually characterized by a 2-D error diagram (n, τ), where n is the fraction of failures-to-predict and τ is the local rate of alarm averaged in space. The most reasonable averaging measure for analysis of a prediction strategy is the normalized rate of target events λ(dg) in a subarea dg. In that case the quantity H = 1 - (n + τ) determines the prediction capability of the strategy. The uncertainty of λ(dg) causes difficulties in estimating H and the statistical significance, α, of prediction results. We investigate this problem theoretically and show how the uncertainty of the measure can be taken into account in two situations, viz., the estimation of α and the construction of a confidence zone for the (n, τ)-parameters of the random strategies. We use our approach to analyse the results from prediction of M >= 8.0 events by the M8 method for the period 1985-2009 (the M8.0+ test). The model of λ(dg) based on the events Mw >= 5.5, 1977-2004, and the magnitude range of target events 8.0 <= M < 8.5 are considered as basic to this M8 analysis. We find the point and upper estimates of α and show that they are still unstable because the number of target events in the experiment is small. However, our results argue in favour of non-triviality of the M8 prediction algorithm.

  3. Prostate cancer prediction using the random forest algorithm that takes into account transrectal ultrasound findings, age, and serum levels of prostate-specific antigen.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, Li-Hong; Chen, Pei-Ran; Gou, Zhong-Ping; Li, Yong-Zhong; Li, Mei; Xiang, Liang-Cheng; Feng, Ping

    2017-01-01

    The aim of this study is to evaluate the ability of the random forest algorithm that combines data on transrectal ultrasound findings, age, and serum levels of prostate-specific antigen to predict prostate carcinoma. Clinico-demographic data were analyzed for 941 patients with prostate diseases treated at our hospital, including age, serum prostate-specific antigen levels, transrectal ultrasound findings, and pathology diagnosis based on ultrasound-guided needle biopsy of the prostate. These data were compared between patients with and without prostate cancer using the Chi-square test, and then entered into the random forest model to predict diagnosis. Patients with and without prostate cancer differed significantly in age and serum prostate-specific antigen levels (P prostate-specific antigen and ultrasound predicted prostate cancer with an accuracy of 83.10%, sensitivity of 65.64%, and specificity of 93.83%. Positive predictive value was 86.72%, and negative predictive value was 81.64%. By integrating age, prostate-specific antigen levels and transrectal ultrasound findings, the random forest algorithm shows better diagnostic performance for prostate cancer than either diagnostic indicator on its own. This algorithm may help improve diagnosis of the disease by identifying patients at high risk for biopsy.

  4. Prostate cancer prediction using the random forest algorithm that takes into account transrectal ultrasound findings, age, and serum levels of prostate-specific antigen

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li-Hong Xiao

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to evaluate the ability of the random forest algorithm that combines data on transrectal ultrasound findings, age, and serum levels of prostate-specific antigen to predict prostate carcinoma. Clinico-demographic data were analyzed for 941 patients with prostate diseases treated at our hospital, including age, serum prostate-specific antigen levels, transrectal ultrasound findings, and pathology diagnosis based on ultrasound-guided needle biopsy of the prostate. These data were compared between patients with and without prostate cancer using the Chi-square test, and then entered into the random forest model to predict diagnosis. Patients with and without prostate cancer differed significantly in age and serum prostate-specific antigen levels (P < 0.001, as well as in all transrectal ultrasound characteristics (P < 0.05 except uneven echo (P = 0.609. The random forest model based on age, prostate-specific antigen and ultrasound predicted prostate cancer with an accuracy of 83.10%, sensitivity of 65.64%, and specificity of 93.83%. Positive predictive value was 86.72%, and negative predictive value was 81.64%. By integrating age, prostate-specific antigen levels and transrectal ultrasound findings, the random forest algorithm shows better diagnostic performance for prostate cancer than either diagnostic indicator on its own. This algorithm may help improve diagnosis of the disease by identifying patients at high risk for biopsy.

  5. Multi-objective evolutionary algorithms for fuzzy classification in survival prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiménez, Fernando; Sánchez, Gracia; Juárez, José M

    2014-03-01

    This paper presents a novel rule-based fuzzy classification methodology for survival/mortality prediction in severe burnt patients. Due to the ethical aspects involved in this medical scenario, physicians tend not to accept a computer-based evaluation unless they understand why and how such a recommendation is given. Therefore, any fuzzy classifier model must be both accurate and interpretable. The proposed methodology is a three-step process: (1) multi-objective constrained optimization of a patient's data set, using Pareto-based elitist multi-objective evolutionary algorithms to maximize accuracy and minimize the complexity (number of rules) of classifiers, subject to interpretability constraints; this step produces a set of alternative (Pareto) classifiers; (2) linguistic labeling, which assigns a linguistic label to each fuzzy set of the classifiers; this step is essential to the interpretability of the classifiers; (3) decision making, whereby a classifier is chosen, if it is satisfactory, according to the preferences of the decision maker. If no classifier is satisfactory for the decision maker, the process starts again in step (1) with a different input parameter set. The performance of three multi-objective evolutionary algorithms, niched pre-selection multi-objective algorithm, elitist Pareto-based multi-objective evolutionary algorithm for diversity reinforcement (ENORA) and the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA-II), was tested using a patient's data set from an intensive care burn unit and a standard machine learning data set from an standard machine learning repository. The results are compared using the hypervolume multi-objective metric. Besides, the results have been compared with other non-evolutionary techniques and validated with a multi-objective cross-validation technique. Our proposal improves the classification rate obtained by other non-evolutionary techniques (decision trees, artificial neural networks, Naive Bayes, and case

  6. A Genetic Algorithm Based Support Vector Machine Model for Blood-Brain Barrier Penetration Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daqing Zhang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Blood-brain barrier (BBB is a highly complex physical barrier determining what substances are allowed to enter the brain. Support vector machine (SVM is a kernel-based machine learning method that is widely used in QSAR study. For a successful SVM model, the kernel parameters for SVM and feature subset selection are the most important factors affecting prediction accuracy. In most studies, they are treated as two independent problems, but it has been proven that they could affect each other. We designed and implemented genetic algorithm (GA to optimize kernel parameters and feature subset selection for SVM regression and applied it to the BBB penetration prediction. The results show that our GA/SVM model is more accurate than other currently available log BB models. Therefore, to optimize both SVM parameters and feature subset simultaneously with genetic algorithm is a better approach than other methods that treat the two problems separately. Analysis of our log BB model suggests that carboxylic acid group, polar surface area (PSA/hydrogen-bonding ability, lipophilicity, and molecular charge play important role in BBB penetration. Among those properties relevant to BBB penetration, lipophilicity could enhance the BBB penetration while all the others are negatively correlated with BBB penetration.

  7. Design of a fuzzy differential evolution algorithm to predict non-deposition sediment transport

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebtehaj, Isa; Bonakdari, Hossein

    2017-12-01

    Since the flow entering a sewer contains solid matter, deposition at the bottom of the channel is inevitable. It is difficult to understand the complex, three-dimensional mechanism of sediment transport in sewer pipelines. Therefore, a method to estimate the limiting velocity is necessary for optimal designs. Due to the inability of gradient-based algorithms to train Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Systems (ANFIS) for non-deposition sediment transport prediction, a new hybrid ANFIS method based on a differential evolutionary algorithm (ANFIS-DE) is developed. The training and testing performance of ANFIS-DE is evaluated using a wide range of dimensionless parameters gathered from the literature. The input combination used to estimate the densimetric Froude number ( Fr) parameters includes the volumetric sediment concentration ( C V ), ratio of median particle diameter to hydraulic radius ( d/R), ratio of median particle diameter to pipe diameter ( d/D) and overall friction factor of sediment ( λ s ). The testing results are compared with the ANFIS model and regression-based equation results. The ANFIS-DE technique predicted sediment transport at limit of deposition with lower root mean square error (RMSE = 0.323) and mean absolute percentage of error (MAPE = 0.065) and higher accuracy ( R 2 = 0.965) than the ANFIS model and regression-based equations.

  8. A Model Predictive Algorithm for Active Control of Nonlinear Noise Processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qi-Zhi Zhang

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, an improved nonlinear Active Noise Control (ANC system is achieved by introducing an appropriate secondary source. For ANC system to be successfully implemented, the nonlinearity of the primary path and time delay of the secondary path must be overcome. A nonlinear Model Predictive Control (MPC strategy is introduced to deal with the time delay in the secondary path and the nonlinearity in the primary path of the ANC system. An overall online modeling technique is utilized for online secondary path and primary path estimation. The secondary path is estimated using an adaptive FIR filter, and the primary path is estimated using a Neural Network (NN. The two models are connected in parallel with the two paths. In this system, the mutual disturbances between the operation of the nonlinear ANC controller and modeling of the secondary can be greatly reduced. The coefficients of the adaptive FIR filter and weight vector of NN are adjusted online. Computer simulations are carried out to compare the proposed nonlinear MPC method with the nonlinear Filter-x Least Mean Square (FXLMS algorithm. The results showed that the convergence speed of the proposed nonlinear MPC algorithm is faster than that of nonlinear FXLMS algorithm. For testing the robust performance of the proposed nonlinear ANC system, the sudden changes in the secondary path and primary path of the ANC system are considered. Results indicated that the proposed nonlinear ANC system can rapidly track the sudden changes in the acoustic paths of the nonlinear ANC system, and ensure the adaptive algorithm stable when the nonlinear ANC system is time variable.

  9. Influenza detection and prediction algorithms: comparative accuracy trial in Östergötland county, Sweden, 2008-2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spreco, A; Eriksson, O; Dahlström, Ö; Timpka, T

    2017-07-01

    Methods for the detection of influenza epidemics and prediction of their progress have seldom been comparatively evaluated using prospective designs. This study aimed to perform a prospective comparative trial of algorithms for the detection and prediction of increased local influenza activity. Data on clinical influenza diagnoses recorded by physicians and syndromic data from a telenursing service were used. Five detection and three prediction algorithms previously evaluated in public health settings were calibrated and then evaluated over 3 years. When applied on diagnostic data, only detection using the Serfling regression method and prediction using the non-adaptive log-linear regression method showed acceptable performances during winter influenza seasons. For the syndromic data, none of the detection algorithms displayed a satisfactory performance, while non-adaptive log-linear regression was the best performing prediction method. We conclude that evidence was found for that available algorithms for influenza detection and prediction display satisfactory performance when applied on local diagnostic data during winter influenza seasons. When applied on local syndromic data, the evaluated algorithms did not display consistent performance. Further evaluations and research on combination of methods of these types in public health information infrastructures for 'nowcasting' (integrated detection and prediction) of influenza activity are warranted.

  10. Predicting Risk-Mitigating Behaviors From Indecisiveness and Trait Anxiety

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mcneill, Ilona M.; Dunlop, Patrick D.; Skinner, Timothy C.

    2016-01-01

    Past research suggests that indecisiveness and trait anxiety may both decrease the likelihood of performing risk-mitigating preparatory behaviors (e.g., preparing for natural hazards) and suggests two cognitive processes (perceived control and worrying) as potential mediators. However, no single...... control over wildfire-related outcomes. Trait anxiety did not uniquely predict preparedness or perceived control, but it did uniquely predict worry, with higher trait anxiety predicting more worrying. Also, worry trended toward uniquely predicting preparedness, albeit in an unpredicted positive direction...

  11. Portfolio management using value at risk: A comparison between genetic algorithms and particle swarm optimization

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    V.A.F. Dallagnol (V. A F); J.H. van den Berg (Jan); L. Mous (Lonneke)

    2009-01-01

    textabstractIn this paper, it is shown a comparison of the application of particle swarm optimization and genetic algorithms to portfolio management, in a constrained portfolio optimization problem where no short sales are allowed. The objective function to be minimized is the value at risk

  12. PCTFPeval: a web tool for benchmarking newly developed algorithms for predicting cooperative transcription factor pairs in yeast.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lai, Fu-Jou; Chang, Hong-Tsun; Wu, Wei-Sheng

    2015-01-01

    Computational identification of cooperative transcription factor (TF) pairs helps understand the combinatorial regulation of gene expression in eukaryotic cells. Many advanced algorithms have been proposed to predict cooperative TF pairs in yeast. However, it is still difficult to conduct a comprehensive and objective performance comparison of different algorithms because of lacking sufficient performance indices and adequate overall performance scores. To solve this problem, in our previous study (published in BMC Systems Biology 2014), we adopted/proposed eight performance indices and designed two overall performance scores to compare the performance of 14 existing algorithms for predicting cooperative TF pairs in yeast. Most importantly, our performance comparison framework can be applied to comprehensively and objectively evaluate the performance of a newly developed algorithm. However, to use our framework, researchers have to put a lot of effort to construct it first. To save researchers time and effort, here we develop a web tool to implement our performance comparison framework, featuring fast data processing, a comprehensive performance comparison and an easy-to-use web interface. The developed tool is called PCTFPeval (Predicted Cooperative TF Pair evaluator), written in PHP and Python programming languages. The friendly web interface allows users to input a list of predicted cooperative TF pairs from their algorithm and select (i) the compared algorithms among the 15 existing algorithms, (ii) the performance indices among the eight existing indices, and (iii) the overall performance scores from two possible choices. The comprehensive performance comparison results are then generated in tens of seconds and shown as both bar charts and tables. The original comparison results of each compared algorithm and each selected performance index can be downloaded as text files for further analyses. Allowing users to select eight existing performance indices and 15

  13. Predicting peptides binding to MHC class II molecules using multi-objective evolutionary algorithms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Feng Lin

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Peptides binding to Major Histocompatibility Complex (MHC class II molecules are crucial for initiation and regulation of immune responses. Predicting peptides that bind to a specific MHC molecule plays an important role in determining potential candidates for vaccines. The binding groove in class II MHC is open at both ends, allowing peptides longer than 9-mer to bind. Finding the consensus motif facilitating the binding of peptides to a MHC class II molecule is difficult because of different lengths of binding peptides and varying location of 9-mer binding core. The level of difficulty increases when the molecule is promiscuous and binds to a large number of low affinity peptides. In this paper, we propose two approaches using multi-objective evolutionary algorithms (MOEA for predicting peptides binding to MHC class II molecules. One uses the information from both binders and non-binders for self-discovery of motifs. The other, in addition, uses information from experimentally determined motifs for guided-discovery of motifs. Results The proposed methods are intended for finding peptides binding to MHC class II I-Ag7 molecule – a promiscuous binder to a large number of low affinity peptides. Cross-validation results across experiments on two motifs derived for I-Ag7 datasets demonstrate better generalization abilities and accuracies of the present method over earlier approaches. Further, the proposed method was validated and compared on two publicly available benchmark datasets: (1 an ensemble of qualitative HLA-DRB1*0401 peptide data obtained from five different sources, and (2 quantitative peptide data obtained for sixteen different alleles comprising of three mouse alleles and thirteen HLA alleles. The proposed method outperformed earlier methods on most datasets, indicating that it is well suited for finding peptides binding to MHC class II molecules. Conclusion We present two MOEA-based algorithms for finding motifs

  14. A Modified Spatiotemporal Fusion Algorithm Using Phenological Information for Predicting Reflectance of Paddy Rice in Southern China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mengxue Liu

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Satellite data for studying surface dynamics in heterogeneous landscapes are missing due to frequent cloud contamination, low temporal resolution, and technological difficulties in developing satellites. A modified spatiotemporal fusion algorithm for predicting the reflectance of paddy rice is presented in this paper. The algorithm uses phenological information extracted from a moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer enhanced vegetation index time series to improve the enhanced spatial and temporal adaptive reflectance fusion model (ESTARFM. The algorithm is tested with satellite data on Yueyang City, China. The main contribution of the modified algorithm is the selection of similar neighborhood pixels by using phenological information to improve accuracy. Results show that the modified algorithm performs better than ESTARFM in visual inspection and quantitative metrics, especially for paddy rice. This modified algorithm provides not only new ideas for the improvement of spatiotemporal data fusion method, but also technical support for the generation of remote sensing data with high spatial and temporal resolution.

  15. Influence of Feature Encoding and Choice of Classifier on Disease Risk Prediction in Genome-Wide Association Studies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florian Mittag

    Full Text Available Various attempts have been made to predict the individual disease risk based on genotype data from genome-wide association studies (GWAS. However, most studies only investigated one or two classification algorithms and feature encoding schemes. In this study, we applied seven different classification algorithms on GWAS case-control data sets for seven different diseases to create models for disease risk prediction. Further, we used three different encoding schemes for the genotypes of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs and investigated their influence on the predictive performance of these models. Our study suggests that an additive encoding of the SNP data should be the preferred encoding scheme, as it proved to yield the best predictive performances for all algorithms and data sets. Furthermore, our results showed that the differences between most state-of-the-art classification algorithms are not statistically significant. Consequently, we recommend to prefer algorithms with simple models like the linear support vector machine (SVM as they allow for better subsequent interpretation without significant loss of accuracy.

  16. Predicting Pre-planting Risk of Stagonospora nodorum blotch in Winter Wheat Using Machine Learning Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lucky eMehra

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Pre-planting factors have been associated with the late-season severity of Stagonospora nodorum blotch (SNB, caused by the fungal pathogen Parastagonospora nodorum, in winter wheat (Triticum aestivum. The relative importance of these factors in the risk of SNB has not been determined and this knowledge can facilitate disease management decisions prior to planting of the wheat crop. In this study, we examined the performance of multiple regression (MR and three machine learning algorithms namely artificial neural networks, categorical and regression trees, and random forests (RF in predicting the pre-planting risk of SNB in wheat. Pre-planting factors tested as potential predictor variables were cultivar resistance, latitude, longitude, previous crop, seeding rate, seed treatment, tillage type, and wheat residue. Disease severity assessed at the end of the growing season was used as the response variable. The models were developed using 431 disease cases (unique combinations of predictors collected from 2012 to 2014 and these cases were randomly divided into training, validation, and test datasets. Models were evaluated based on the regression of observed against predicted severity values of SNB, sensitivity-specificity ROC analysis, and the Kappa statistic. A strong relationship was observed between late-season severity of SNB and specific pre-planting factors in which latitude, longitude, wheat residue, and cultivar resistance were the most important predictors. The MR model explained 33% of variability in the data, while machine learning models explained 47 to 79% of the total variability. Similarly, the MR model correctly classified 74% of the disease cases, while machine learning models correctly classified 81 to 83% of these cases. Results show that the RF algorithm, which explained 79% of the variability within the data, was the most accurate in predicting the risk of SNB, with an accuracy rate of 93%. The RF algorithm could allow early

  17. Predicting Pre-planting Risk of Stagonospora nodorum blotch in Winter Wheat Using Machine Learning Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehra, Lucky K; Cowger, Christina; Gross, Kevin; Ojiambo, Peter S

    2016-01-01

    Pre-planting factors have been associated with the late-season severity of Stagonospora nodorum blotch (SNB), caused by the fungal pathogen Parastagonospora nodorum, in winter wheat (Triticum aestivum). The relative importance of these factors in the risk of SNB has not been determined and this knowledge can facilitate disease management decisions prior to planting of the wheat crop. In this study, we examined the performance of multiple regression (MR) and three machine learning algorithms namely artificial neural networks, categorical and regression trees, and random forests (RF), in predicting the pre-planting risk of SNB in wheat. Pre-planting factors tested as potential predictor variables were cultivar resistance, latitude, longitude, previous crop, seeding rate, seed treatment, tillage type, and wheat residue. Disease severity assessed at the end of the growing season was used as the response variable. The models were developed using 431 disease cases (unique combinations of predictors) collected from 2012 to 2014 and these cases were randomly divided into training, validation, and test datasets. Models were evaluated based on the regression of observed against predicted severity values of SNB, sensitivity-specificity ROC analysis, and the Kappa statistic. A strong relationship was observed between late-season severity of SNB and specific pre-planting factors in which latitude, longitude, wheat residue, and cultivar resistance were the most important predictors. The MR model explained 33% of variability in the data, while machine learning models explained 47 to 79% of the total variability. Similarly, the MR model correctly classified 74% of the disease cases, while machine learning models correctly classified 81 to 83% of these cases. Results show that the RF algorithm, which explained 79% of the variability within the data, was the most accurate in predicting the risk of SNB, with an accuracy rate of 93%. The RF algorithm could allow early assessment of

  18. Predicting Solar Flares Using SDO /HMI Vector Magnetic Data Products and the Random Forest Algorithm

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, Chang; Deng, Na; Wang, Haimin [Space Weather Research Laboratory, New Jersey Institute of Technology, University Heights, Newark, NJ 07102-1982 (United States); Wang, Jason T. L., E-mail: chang.liu@njit.edu, E-mail: na.deng@njit.edu, E-mail: haimin.wang@njit.edu, E-mail: jason.t.wang@njit.edu [Department of Computer Science, New Jersey Institute of Technology, University Heights, Newark, NJ 07102-1982 (United States)

    2017-07-10

    Adverse space-weather effects can often be traced to solar flares, the prediction of which has drawn significant research interests. The Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) produces full-disk vector magnetograms with continuous high cadence, while flare prediction efforts utilizing this unprecedented data source are still limited. Here we report results of flare prediction using physical parameters provided by the Space-weather HMI Active Region Patches (SHARP) and related data products. We survey X-ray flares that occurred from 2010 May to 2016 December and categorize their source regions into four classes (B, C, M, and X) according to the maximum GOES magnitude of flares they generated. We then retrieve SHARP-related parameters for each selected region at the beginning of its flare date to build a database. Finally, we train a machine-learning algorithm, called random forest (RF), to predict the occurrence of a certain class of flares in a given active region within 24 hr, evaluate the classifier performance using the 10-fold cross-validation scheme, and characterize the results using standard performance metrics. Compared to previous works, our experiments indicate that using the HMI parameters and RF is a valid method for flare forecasting with fairly reasonable prediction performance. To our knowledge, this is the first time that RF has been used to make multiclass predictions of solar flares. We also find that the total unsigned quantities of vertical current, current helicity, and flux near the polarity inversion line are among the most important parameters for classifying flaring regions into different classes.

  19. A New Class of Flare Prediction Algorithms: A Synthesis of Data, Pattern Recognition Algorithms, and First Principles Magnetohydrodynamics, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Researchers have been working on flare prediction for many decades. However, the best prediction result achieved by Falconer et al. for major flares, CMEs, and solar...

  20. Cardiovascular risk prediction tools for populations in Asia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barzi, F; Patel, A; Gu, D; Sritara, P; Lam, T H; Rodgers, A; Woodward, M

    2007-02-01

    Cardiovascular risk equations are traditionally derived from the Framingham Study. The accuracy of this approach in Asian populations, where resources for risk factor measurement may be limited, is unclear. To compare "low-information" equations (derived using only age, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol and smoking status) derived from the Framingham Study with those derived from the Asian cohorts, on the accuracy of cardiovascular risk prediction. Separate equations to predict the 8-year risk of a cardiovascular event were derived from Asian and Framingham cohorts. The performance of these equations, and a subsequently "recalibrated" Framingham equation, were evaluated among participants from independent Chinese cohorts. Six cohort studies from Japan, Korea and Singapore (Asian cohorts); six cohort studies from China; the Framingham Study from the US. 172,077 participants from the Asian cohorts; 25,682 participants from Chinese cohorts and 6053 participants from the Framingham Study. In the Chinese cohorts, 542 cardiovascular events occurred during 8 years of follow-up. Both the Asian cohorts and the Framingham equations discriminated cardiovascular risk well in the Chinese cohorts; the area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve was at least 0.75 for men and women. However, the Framingham risk equation systematically overestimated risk in the Chinese cohorts by an average of 276% among men and 102% among women. The corresponding average overestimation using the Asian cohorts equation was 11% and 10%, respectively. Recalibrating the Framingham risk equation using cardiovascular disease incidence from the non-Chinese Asian cohorts led to an overestimation of risk by an average of 4% in women and underestimation of risk by an average of 2% in men. A low-information Framingham cardiovascular risk prediction tool, which, when recalibrated with contemporary data, is likely to estimate future cardiovascular risk with similar accuracy in Asian

  1. Propensity scores-potential outcomes framework to incorporate severity probabilities in the highway safety manual crash prediction algorithm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sasidharan, Lekshmi; Donnell, Eric T

    2014-10-01

    Accurate estimation of the expected number of crashes at different severity levels for entities with and without countermeasures plays a vital role in selecting countermeasures in the framework of the safety management process. The current practice is to use the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials' Highway Safety Manual crash prediction algorithms, which combine safety performance functions and crash modification factors, to estimate the effects of safety countermeasures on different highway and street facility types. Many of these crash prediction algorithms are based solely on crash frequency, or assume that severity outcomes are unchanged when planning for, or implementing, safety countermeasures. Failing to account for the uncertainty associated with crash severity outcomes, and assuming crash severity distributions remain unchanged in safety performance evaluations, limits the utility of the Highway Safety Manual crash prediction algorithms in assessing the effect of safety countermeasures on crash severity. This study demonstrates the application of a propensity scores-potential outcomes framework to estimate the probability distribution for the occurrence of different crash severity levels by accounting for the uncertainties associated with them. The probability of fatal and severe injury crash occurrence at lighted and unlighted intersections is estimated in this paper using data from Minnesota. The results show that the expected probability of occurrence of fatal and severe injury crashes at a lighted intersection was 1 in 35 crashes and the estimated risk ratio indicates that the respective probabilities at an unlighted intersection was 1.14 times higher compared to lighted intersections. The results from the potential outcomes-propensity scores framework are compared to results obtained from traditional binary logit models, without application of propensity scores matching. Traditional binary logit analysis suggests that

  2. Hazard Forecasting by MRI: A Prediction Algorithm of the First Kind

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lomnitz, C.

    2003-12-01

    Seismic gaps do not tell us when and where the next earthquake is due. We present new results on limited earthquake hazard prediction at plate boundaries. Our algorithm quantifies earthquake hazard in seismic gaps. The prediction window found for M7 is on the order of 50 km by 20 years (Lomnitz, 1996a). The earth is unstable with respect to small perturbations of the initial conditions. A prediction of the first kind is an estimate of the time evolution of a complex system with fixed boundary conditions in response to changes in the initial state, for example, weather prediction (Edward Lorenz, 1975; Hasselmann, 2002). We use the catalog of large world earthquakes as a proxy for the initial conditions. The MRI algorithm simulates the response of the system to updating the catalog. After a local stress transient dP the entropy decays as (grad dP)2 due to transient flows directed toward the epicenter. Healing is the thermodynamic process which resets the state of stress. It proceeds as a power law from the rupture boundary inwards, as in a wound. The half-life of a rupture is defined as the healing time which shrinks the size of a scar by half. Healed segments of plate boundary can rupture again. From observations in Chile, Mexico and Japan we find that the half-life of a seismic rupture is about 20 years, in agreement with seismic gap observations. The moment ratio MR is defined as the contrast between the cumulative regional moment release and the local moment deficiency at time t along the plate boundary. The procedure is called MRI. The findings: (1) MRI works; (2) major earthquakes match prominent peaks in the MRI graph; (3) important events (Central Chile 1985; Mexico 1985; Kobe 1995) match MRI peaks which began to emerge 10 to 20 years before the earthquake; (4) The emergence of peaks in MRI depends on earlier ruptures that occurred, not adjacent to but at 10 to 20 fault lengths from the epicentral region, in agreement with triggering effects. The hazard

  3. THE ALGORITHM IMPLEMENTATION OF THE RISK MANAGEMENT SYSTEM ON THE MARKET OF TOURIST SERVICES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. M. Agafonov

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Summary. In the article the author conducted a comprehensive assessment of the factors and the level of operational risk, environmental risk, security risk, political risk, marketing risk, economic risk and infrastructure risk market of tourist services in Russia in 2015. As a result of the analysis of risks and measures for risk management, applied in Russian market of tourist services has now been found that the most serious risk is the risk of reducing the demand for travel companies for various reasons, the main of which is the reduction of incomes of the population and the preference of consumers to buy tourism services directly from the enterprises in the hospitality without the participation of tourist companies through the spread of information and communication technologies. It offers innovative risk manag ement tools in the field of tourism companies and the market of tourist services, such as: creating a site with reviews based on tourism and the provision of professional advice on tourism for their customers; collaboration with the insurance companies and the provision of a large insurance tourists from unsuccessful rest and bad experiences; sales booked, but hotel rooms sold abroad at an auction; creation of a network of hotels where you can pay in Russian rubles. An author algorithm implementation of the risk management system on the market of tourist services.

  4. XTALOPT: An open-source evolutionary algorithm for crystal structure prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lonie, David C.; Zurek, Eva

    2011-02-01

    The implementation and testing of XTALOPT, an evolutionary algorithm for crystal structure prediction, is outlined. We present our new periodic displacement (ripple) operator which is ideally suited to extended systems. It is demonstrated that hybrid operators, which combine two pure operators, reduce the number of duplicate structures in the search. This allows for better exploration of the potential energy surface of the system in question, while simultaneously zooming in on the most promising regions. A continuous workflow, which makes better use of computational resources as compared to traditional generation based algorithms, is employed. Various parameters in XTALOPT are optimized using a novel benchmarking scheme. XTALOPT is available under the GNU Public License, has been interfaced with various codes commonly used to study extended systems, and has an easy to use, intuitive graphical interface. Program summaryProgram title:XTALOPT Catalogue identifier: AEGX_v1_0 Program summary URL:http://cpc.cs.qub.ac.uk/summaries/AEGX_v1_0.html Program obtainable from: CPC Program Library, Queen's University, Belfast, N. Ireland Licensing provisions: GPL v2.1 or later [1] No. of lines in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 36 849 No. of bytes in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 1 149 399 Distribution format: tar.gz Programming language: C++ Computer: PCs, workstations, or clusters Operating system: Linux Classification: 7.7 External routines: QT [2], OpenBabel [3], AVOGADRO [4], SPGLIB [8] and one of: VASP [5], PWSCF [6], GULP [7]. Nature of problem: Predicting the crystal structure of a system from its stoichiometry alone remains a grand challenge in computational materials science, chemistry, and physics. Solution method: Evolutionary algorithms are stochastic search techniques which use concepts from biological evolution in order to locate the global minimum on their potential energy surface. Our evolutionary algorithm, XTALOPT, is freely

  5. Enhancing Accuracy of Sediment Total Load Prediction Using Evolutionary Algorithms (Case Study: Gotoorchay River

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Roshangar

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Exact prediction of transported sediment rate by rivers in water resources projects is of utmost importance. Basically erosion and sediment transport process is one of the most complexes hydrodynamic. Although different studies have been developed on the application of intelligent models based on neural, they are not widely used because of lacking explicitness and complexity governing on choosing and architecting of proper network. In this study, a Genetic expression programming model (as an important branches of evolutionary algorithems for predicting of sediment load is selected and investigated as an intelligent approach along with other known classical and imperical methods such as Larsen´s equation, Engelund-Hansen´s equation and Bagnold´s equation. Materials and Methods: In this study, in order to improve explicit prediction of sediment load of Gotoorchay, located in Aras catchment, Northwestern Iran latitude: 38°24´33.3˝ and longitude: 44°46´13.2˝, genetic programming (GP and Genetic Algorithm (GA were applied. Moreover, the semi-empirical models for predicting of total sediment load and rating curve have been used. Finally all the methods were compared and the best ones were introduced. Two statistical measures were used to compare the performance of the different models, namely root mean square error (RMSE and determination coefficient (DC. RMSE and DC indicate the discrepancy between the observed and computed values. Results and Discussions: The statistical characteristics results obtained from the analysis of genetic programming method for both selected model groups indicated that the model 4 including the only discharge of the river, relative to other studied models had the highest DC and the least RMSE in the testing stage (DC= 0.907, RMSE= 0.067. Although there were several parameters applied in other models, these models were complicated and had weak results of prediction. Our results showed that the model 9

  6. Development of a generally applicable morphokinetic algorithm capable of predicting the implantation potential of embryos transferred on Day 3

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petersen, Bjørn Molt; Boel, Mikkel; Montag, Markus; Gardner, David K.

    2016-01-01

    STUDY QUESTION Can a generally applicable morphokinetic algorithm suitable for Day 3 transfers of time-lapse monitored embryos originating from different culture conditions and fertilization methods be developed for the purpose of supporting the embryologist's decision on which embryo to transfer back to the patient in assisted reproduction? SUMMARY ANSWER The algorithm presented here can be used independently of culture conditions and fertilization method and provides predictive power not surpassed by other published algorithms for ranking embryos according to their blastocyst formation potential. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY Generally applicable algorithms have so far been developed only for predicting blastocyst formation. A number of clinics have reported validated implantation prediction algorithms, which have been developed based on clinic-specific culture conditions and clinical environment. However, a generally applicable embryo evaluation algorithm based on actual implantation outcome has not yet been reported. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION Retrospective evaluation of data extracted from a database of known implantation data (KID) originating from 3275 embryos transferred on Day 3 conducted in 24 clinics between 2009 and 2014. The data represented different culture conditions (reduced and ambient oxygen with various culture medium strategies) and fertilization methods (IVF, ICSI). The capability to predict blastocyst formation was evaluated on an independent set of morphokinetic data from 11 218 embryos which had been cultured to Day 5. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS The algorithm was developed by applying automated recursive partitioning to a large number of annotation types and derived equations, progressing to a five-fold cross-validation test of the complete data set and a validation test of different incubation conditions and fertilization methods. The results were expressed as receiver operating characteristics curves using the area under the

  7. Prediction of Aerodynamic Coefficient using Genetic Algorithm Optimized Neural Network for Sparse Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajkumar, T.; Bardina, Jorge; Clancy, Daniel (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    Wind tunnels use scale models to characterize aerodynamic coefficients, Wind tunnel testing can be slow and costly due to high personnel overhead and intensive power utilization. Although manual curve fitting can be done, it is highly efficient to use a neural network to define the complex relationship between variables. Numerical simulation of complex vehicles on the wide range of conditions required for flight simulation requires static and dynamic data. Static data at low Mach numbers and angles of attack may be obtained with simpler Euler codes. Static data of stalled vehicles where zones of flow separation are usually present at higher angles of attack require Navier-Stokes simulations which are costly due to the large processing time required to attain convergence. Preliminary dynamic data may be obtained with simpler methods based on correlations and vortex methods; however, accurate prediction of the dynamic coefficients requires complex and costly numerical simulations. A reliable and fast method of predicting complex aerodynamic coefficients for flight simulation I'S presented using a neural network. The training data for the neural network are derived from numerical simulations and wind-tunnel experiments. The aerodynamic coefficients are modeled as functions of the flow characteristics and the control surfaces of the vehicle. The basic coefficients of lift, drag and pitching moment are expressed as functions of angles of attack and Mach number. The modeled and training aerodynamic coefficients show good agreement. This method shows excellent potential for rapid development of aerodynamic models for flight simulation. Genetic Algorithms (GA) are used to optimize a previously built Artificial Neural Network (ANN) that reliably predicts aerodynamic coefficients. Results indicate that the GA provided an efficient method of optimizing the ANN model to predict aerodynamic coefficients. The reliability of the ANN using the GA includes prediction of aerodynamic

  8. The Economic Value of Predicting Bond Risk Premia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sarno, Lucio; Schneider, Paul; Wagner, Christian

    the expectations hypothesis (EH) out-ofsample: the forecasts do not add economic value compared to using the average historical excess return as an EH-consistent estimate of constant risk premia. We show that in general statistical signicance does not necessarily translate into economic signicance because EH...... deviations mainly matter at short horizons and standard predictability metrics are not compatible with common measures of economic value. Overall, the EH remains the benchmark for investment decisions and should be considered an economic prior in models of bond risk premia.......This paper studies whether the evident statistical predictability of bond risk premia translates into economic gains for bond investors. We show that ane term structure models (ATSMs) estimated by jointly tting yields and bond excess returns capture this predictive information otherwise hidden...

  9. REMAINING LIFE TIME PREDICTION OF BEARINGS USING K-STAR ALGORITHM – A STATISTICAL APPROACH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. SATISHKUMAR

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The role of bearings is significant in reducing the down time of all rotating machineries. The increasing trend of bearing failures in recent times has triggered the need and importance of deployment of condition monitoring. There are multiple factors associated to a bearing failure while it is in operation. Hence, a predictive strategy is required to evaluate the current state of the bearings in operation. In past, predictive models with regression techniques were widely used for bearing lifetime estimations. The Objective of this paper is to estimate the remaining useful life of bearings through a machine learning approach. The ultimate objective of this study is to strengthen the predictive maintenance. The present study was done using classification approach following the concepts of machine learning and a predictive model was built to calculate the residual lifetime of bearings in operation. Vibration signals were acquired on a continuous basis from an experiment wherein the bearings are made to run till it fails naturally. It should be noted that the experiment was carried out with new bearings at pre-defined load and speed conditions until the bearing fails on its own. In the present work, statistical features were deployed and feature selection process was carried out using J48 decision tree and selected features were used to develop the prognostic model. The K-Star classification algorithm, a supervised machine learning technique is made use of in building a predictive model to estimate the lifetime of bearings. The performance of classifier was cross validated with distinct data. The result shows that the K-Star classification model gives 98.56% classification accuracy with selected features.

  10. Improved feature selection based on genetic algorithms for real time disruption prediction on JET

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rattá, G.A.; Vega, J.; Murari, A.

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► A new signal selection methodology to improve disruption prediction is reported. ► The approach is based on Genetic Algorithms. ► An advanced predictor has been created with the new set of signals. ► The new system obtains considerably higher prediction rates. - Abstract: The early prediction of disruptions is an important aspect of the research in the field of Tokamak control. A very recent predictor, called “Advanced Predictor Of Disruptions” (APODIS), developed for the “Joint European Torus” (JET), implements the real time recognition of incoming disruptions with the best success rate achieved ever and an outstanding stability for long periods following training. In this article, a new methodology to select the set of the signals’ parameters in order to maximize the performance of the predictor is reported. The approach is based on “Genetic Algorithms” (GAs). With the feature selection derived from GAs, a new version of APODIS has been developed. The results are significantly better than the previous version not only in terms of success rates but also in extending the interval before the disruption in which reliable predictions are achieved. Correct disruption predictions with a success rate in excess of 90% have been achieved 200 ms before the time of the disruption. The predictor response is compared with that of JET's Protection System (JPS) and the ADODIS predictor is shown to be far superior. Both systems have been carefully tested with a wide number of discharges to understand their relative merits and the most profitable directions of further improvements.

  11. Ecological niche modeling for visceral leishmaniasis in the state of Bahia, Brazil, using genetic algorithm for rule-set prediction and growing degree day-water budget analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prixia Nieto

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available Two predictive models were developed within a geographic information system using Genetic Algorithm Rule-Set Prediction (GARP and the growing degree day (GDD-water budget (WB concept to predict the distribution and potential risk of visceral leishmaniasis (VL in the State of Bahia, Brazil. The objective was to define the environmental suitability of the disease as well as to obtain a deeper understanding of the eco-epidemiology of VL by associating environmental and climatic variables with disease prevalence. Both the GARP model and the GDDWB model, using different analysis approaches and with the same human prevalence database, predicted similar distribution and abundance patterns for the Lutzomyia longipalpis-Leishmania chagasi system in Bahia. High and moderate prevalence sites for VL were significantly related to areas of high and moderate risk prediction by: (i the area predicted by the GARP model, depending on the number of pixels that overlapped among eleven annual model years, and (ii the number of potential generations per year that could be completed by the Lu. longipalpis-L. chagasi system by GDD-WB analysis. When applied to the ecological zones of Bahia, both the GARP and the GDD-WB prediction models suggest that the highest VL risk is in the interior region of the state, characterized by a semi-arid and hot climate known as Caatinga, while the risk in the Bahia interior forest and the Cerrado ecological regions is lower. The Bahia coastal forest was predicted to be a low-risk area due to the unsuitable conditions for the vector and VL transmission.

  12. HomoTarget: a new algorithm for prediction of microRNA targets in Homo sapiens.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmadi, Hamed; Ahmadi, Ali; Azimzadeh-Jamalkandi, Sadegh; Shoorehdeli, Mahdi Aliyari; Salehzadeh-Yazdi, Ali; Bidkhori, Gholamreza; Masoudi-Nejad, Ali

    2013-02-01

    MiRNAs play an essential role in the networks of gene regulation by inhibiting the translation of target mRNAs. Several computational approaches have been proposed for the prediction of miRNA target-genes. Reports reveal a large fraction of under-predicted or falsely predicted target genes. Thus, there is an imperative need to develop a computational method by which the target mRNAs of existing miRNAs can be correctly identified. In this study, combined pattern recognition neural network (PRNN) and principle component analysis (PCA) architecture has been proposed in order to model the complicated relationship between miRNAs and their target mRNAs in humans. The results of several types of intelligent classifiers and our proposed model were compared, showing that our algorithm outperformed them with higher sensitivity and specificity. Using the recent release of the mirBase database to find potential targets of miRNAs, this model incorporated twelve structural, thermodynamic and positional features of miRNA:mRNA binding sites to select target candidates. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. PEDLA: predicting enhancers with a deep learning-based algorithmic framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Feng; Li, Hao; Ren, Chao; Bo, Xiaochen; Shu, Wenjie

    2016-06-22

    Transcriptional enhancers are non-coding segments of DNA that play a central role in the spatiotemporal regulation of gene expression programs. However, systematically and precisely predicting enhancers remain a major challenge. Although existing methods have achieved some success in enhancer prediction, they still suffer from many issues. We developed a deep learning-based algorithmic framework named PEDLA (https://github.com/wenjiegroup/PEDLA), which can directly learn an enhancer predictor from massively heterogeneous data and generalize in ways that are mostly consistent across various cell types/tissues. We first trained PEDLA with 1,114-dimensional heterogeneous features in H1 cells, and demonstrated that PEDLA framework integrates diverse heterogeneous features and gives state-of-the-art performance relative to five existing methods for enhancer prediction. We further extended PEDLA to iteratively learn from 22 training cell types/tissues. Our results showed that PEDLA manifested superior performance consistency in both training and independent test sets. On average, PEDLA achieved 95.0% accuracy and a 96.8% geometric mean (GM) of sensitivity and specificity across 22 training cell types/tissues, as well as 95.7% accuracy and a 96.8% GM across 20 independent test cell types/tissues. Together, our work illustrates the power of harnessing state-of-the-art deep learning techniques to consistently identify regulatory elements at a genome-wide scale from massively heterogeneous data across diverse cell types/tissues.

  14. Prediction system of hydroponic plant growth and development using algorithm Fuzzy Mamdani method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sudana, I. Made; Purnawirawan, Okta; Arief, Ulfa Mediaty

    2017-03-01

    Hydroponics is a method of farming without soil. One of the Hydroponic plants is Watercress (Nasturtium Officinale). The development and growth process of hydroponic Watercress was influenced by levels of nutrients, acidity and temperature. The independent variables can be used as input variable system to predict the value level of plants growth and development. The prediction system is using Fuzzy Algorithm Mamdani method. This system was built to implement the function of Fuzzy Inference System (Fuzzy Inference System/FIS) as a part of the Fuzzy Logic Toolbox (FLT) by using MATLAB R2007b. FIS is a computing system that works on the principle of fuzzy reasoning which is similar to humans' reasoning. Basically FIS consists of four units which are fuzzification unit, fuzzy logic reasoning unit, base knowledge unit and defuzzification unit. In addition to know the effect of independent variables on the plants growth and development that can be visualized with the function diagram of FIS output surface that is shaped three-dimensional, and statistical tests based on the data from the prediction system using multiple linear regression method, which includes multiple linear regression analysis, T test, F test, the coefficient of determination and donations predictor that are calculated using SPSS (Statistical Product and Service Solutions) software applications.

  15. A hybrid genetic algorithm and linear regression for prediction of NOx emission in power generation plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bunyamin, Muhammad Afif; Yap, Keem Siah; Aziz, Nur Liyana Afiqah Abdul; Tiong, Sheih Kiong; Wong, Shen Yuong; Kamal, Md Fauzan

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a new approach of gas emission estimation in power generation plant using a hybrid Genetic Algorithm (GA) and Linear Regression (LR) (denoted as GA-LR). The LR is one of the approaches that model the relationship between an output dependant variable, y, with one or more explanatory variables or inputs which denoted as x. It is able to estimate unknown model parameters from inputs data. On the other hand, GA is used to search for the optimal solution until specific criteria is met causing termination. These results include providing good solutions as compared to one optimal solution for complex problems. Thus, GA is widely used as feature selection. By combining the LR and GA (GA-LR), this new technique is able to select the most important input features as well as giving more accurate prediction by minimizing the prediction errors. This new technique is able to produce more consistent of gas emission estimation, which may help in reducing population to the environment. In this paper, the study's interest is focused on nitrous oxides (NOx) prediction. The results of the experiment are encouraging.

  16. Semi-supervised prediction of gene regulatory networks using machine learning algorithms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patel, Nihir; Wang, Jason T L

    2015-10-01

    Use of computational methods to predict gene regulatory networks (GRNs) from gene expression data is a challenging task. Many studies have been conducted using unsupervised methods to fulfill the task; however, such methods usually yield low prediction accuracies due to the lack of training data. In this article, we propose semi-supervised methods for GRN prediction by utilizing two machine learning algorithms, namely, support vector machines (SVM) and random forests (RF). The semi-supervised methods make use of unlabelled data for training. We investigated inductive and transductive learning approaches, both of which adopt an iterative procedure to obtain reliable negative training data from the unlabelled data. We then applied our semi-supervised methods to gene expression data of Escherichia coli and Saccharomyces cerevisiae, and evaluated the performance of our methods using the expression data. Our analysis indicated that the transductive learning approach outperformed the inductive learning approach for both organisms. However, there was no conclusive difference identified in the performance of SVM and RF. Experimental results also showed that the proposed semi-supervised methods performed better than existing supervised methods for both organisms.

  17. Development and verification of an analytical algorithm to predict absorbed dose distributions in ocular proton therapy using Monte Carlo simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koch, Nicholas C; Newhauser, Wayne D

    2010-01-01

    Proton beam radiotherapy is an effective and non-invasive treatment for uveal melanoma. Recent research efforts have focused on improving the dosimetric accuracy of treatment planning and overcoming the present limitation of relative analytical dose calculations. Monte Carlo algorithms have been shown to accurately predict dose per monitor unit (D/MU) values, but this has yet to be shown for analytical algorithms dedicated to ocular proton therapy, which are typically less computationally expensive than Monte Carlo algorithms. The objective of this study was to determine if an analytical method could predict absolute dose distributions and D/MU values for a variety of treatment fields like those used in ocular proton therapy. To accomplish this objective, we used a previously validated Monte Carlo model of an ocular nozzle to develop an analytical algorithm to predict three-dimensional distributions of D/MU values from pristine Bragg peaks and therapeutically useful spread-out Bragg peaks (SOBPs). Results demonstrated generally good agreement between the analytical and Monte Carlo absolute dose calculations. While agreement in the proximal region decreased for beams with less penetrating Bragg peaks compared with the open-beam condition, the difference was shown to be largely attributable to edge-scattered protons. A method for including this effect in any future analytical algorithm was proposed. Comparisons of D/MU values showed typical agreement to within 0.5%. We conclude that analytical algorithms can be employed to accurately predict absolute proton dose distributions delivered by an ocular nozzle.

  18. Identification of the high risk emergency surgical patient: Which risk prediction model should be used?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stonelake, Stephen; Thomson, Peter; Suggett, Nigel

    2015-09-01

    National guidance states that all patients having emergency surgery should have a mortality risk assessment calculated on admission so that the 'high risk' patient can receive the appropriate seniority and level of care. We aimed to assess if peri-operative risk scoring tools could accurately calculate mortality and morbidity risk. Mortality risk scores for 86 consecutive emergency laparotomies, were calculated using pre-operative (ASA, Lee index) and post-operative (POSSUM, P-POSSUM and CR-POSSUM) risk calculation tools. Morbidity risk scores were calculated using the POSSUM predicted morbidity and compared against actual morbidity according to the Clavien-Dindo classification. The actual mortality was 10.5%. The average predicted risk scores for all laparotomies were: ASA 26.5%, Lee Index 2.5%, POSSUM 29.5%, P-POSSUM 18.5%, CR-POSSUM 10.5%. Complications occurred following 67 laparotomies (78%). The majority (51%) of complications were classified as Clavien-Dindo grade 2-3 (non-life-threatening). Patients having a POSSUM morbidity risk of greater than 50% developed significantly more life-threatening complications (CD 4-5) compared with those who predicted less than or equal to 50% morbidity risk (P = 0.01). Pre-operative risk stratification remains a challenge because the Lee Index under-predicts and ASA over-predicts mortality risk. Post-operative risk scoring using the CR-POSSUM is more accurate and we suggest can be used to identify patients who require intensive care post-operatively. In the absence of accurate risk scoring tools that can be used on admission to hospital it is not possible to reliably audit the achievement of national standards of care for the 'high-risk' patient.

  19. A Path Tracking Algorithm Using Future Prediction Control with Spike Detection for an Autonomous Vehicle Robot

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Aizzat Zakaria

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Trajectory tracking is an important aspect of autonomous vehicles. The idea behind trajectory tracking is the ability of the vehicle to follow a predefined path with zero steady state error. The difficulty arises due to the nonlinearity of vehicle dynamics. Therefore, this paper proposes a stable tracking control for an autonomous vehicle. An approach that consists of steering wheel control and lateral control is introduced. This control algorithm is used for a non-holonomic navigation problem, namely tracking a reference trajectory in a closed loop form. A proposed future prediction point control algorithm is used to calculate the vehicle's lateral error in order to improve the performance of the trajectory tracking. A feedback sensor signal from the steering wheel angle and yaw rate sensor is used as feedback information for the controller. The controller consists of a relationship between the future point lateral error, the linear velocity, the heading error and the reference yaw rate. This paper also introduces a spike detection algorithm to track the spike error that occurs during GPS reading. The proposed idea is to take the advantage of the derivative of the steering rate. This paper aims to tackle the lateral error problem by applying the steering control law to the vehicle, and proposes a new path tracking control method by considering the future coordinate of the vehicle and the future estimated lateral error. The effectiveness of the proposed controller is demonstrated by a simulation and a GPS experiment with noisy data. The approach used in this paper is not limited to autonomous vehicles alone since the concept of autonomous vehicle tracking can be used in mobile robot platforms, as the kinematic model of these two platforms is similar.

  20. Prediction of severe retinopathy of prematurity using the WINROP algorithm in a cohort from Malopolska. A retrospective, single-center study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jagła, Mateusz; Peterko, Anna; Olesińska, Katarzyna; Szymońska, Izabela; Kwinta, Przemko

    2017-01-01

    Retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) is one of the leading avoidable causes of blindness in childhood in developed countries. Accurate diagnosis and treatment are essential for preventing the loss of vision. WINROP (https://www.winrop.com) is an online monitoring system which predicts the risk for ROP requiring treatment based on gestational age, birth weight, and body weight gain. To validate diagnostic accuracy of the WINROP algorithm for the detection of severe ROP in a single centre cohort of Polish, high-risk preterm infant population. Medical records of neonates born before 32 weeks of gestation admitted to the third level neonatal centre in a 2-year retrospective investigation 79 patients were included in the study: their gestational age, birth weight and body weight gain were set in the WINROP system. The algorithm evaluated the risk for ROP divided into low or high-risk of disease and identified infants with high risk of developing severe ROP (type 1 ROP). Out of 79 patients 37 received a high-risk alarm, of whom 22 developed severe ROP. Low-risk alarm was triggered in 42 infants; five of them developed type 1 ROP. The sensitivity of the WINROP was found to be 81.5% (95% CI 61.9-93.7), specificity 71.2% (95% CI 56.9-82.9), negative predictive value (NPV) 88.1% (95% CI 76.7-94.3), and positive predictive value (PPV) 59.5 (95% CI 48.1-69.9), respectively. The accuracy of the test significantly increased after combined WINROP and surfactant therapy as an additional factor - sensitivity 96.3% (95% CI 81.0-99.9), specificity 63.5% (95% CI 49.0-76.4), NPV 97.1% (95% CI 82.3-99.6), and PPV 57.8 (95% CI 48.7-66.4). The WINROP algorithm sensitivity from the Polish cohort was not as high as that reported in developed countries. However, combined with additional factors (e.g. surfactant treatment) it can be useful for identifying the risk groups of sight-threatening ROP. The accuracy of the WINROP algorithm should be validated in a large multi-center prospective study in

  1. Machine Learning Algorithms for prediction of regions of high Reynolds Averaged Navier Stokes Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mishra, Aashwin; Iaccarino, Gianluca

    2017-11-01

    In spite of their deficiencies, RANS models represent the workhorse for industrial investigations into turbulent flows. In this context, it is essential to provide diagnostic measures to assess the quality of RANS predictions. To this end, the primary step is to identify feature importances amongst massive sets of potentially descriptive and discriminative flow features. This aids the physical interpretability of the resultant discrepancy model and its extensibility to similar problems. Recent investigations have utilized approaches such as Random Forests, Support Vector Machines and the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator for feature selection. With examples, we exhibit how such methods may not be suitable for turbulent flow datasets. The underlying rationale, such as the correlation bias and the required conditions for the success of penalized algorithms, are discussed with illustrative examples. Finally, we provide alternate approaches using convex combinations of regularized regression approaches and randomized sub-sampling in combination with feature selection algorithms, to infer model structure from data. This research was supported by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency under the Enabling Quantification of Uncertainty in Physical Systems (EQUiPS) project (technical monitor: Dr Fariba Fahroo).

  2. Investigation on Cardiovascular Risk Prediction Using Physiological Parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wan-Hua Lin

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Cardiovascular disease (CVD is the leading cause of death worldwide. Early prediction of CVD is urgently important for timely prevention and treatment. Incorporation or modification of new risk factors that have an additional independent prognostic value of existing prediction models is widely used for improving the performance of the prediction models. This paper is to investigate the physiological parameters that are used as risk factors for the prediction of cardiovascular events, as well as summarizing the current status on the medical devices for physiological tests and discuss the potential implications for promoting CVD prevention and treatment in the future. The results show that measures extracted from blood pressure, electrocardiogram, arterial stiffness, ankle-brachial blood pressure index (ABI, and blood glucose carry valuable information for the prediction of both long-term and near-term cardiovascular risk. However, the predictive values should be further validated by more comprehensive measures. Meanwhile, advancing unobtrusive technologies and wireless communication technologies allow on-site detection of the physiological information remotely in an out-of-hospital setting in real-time. In addition with computer modeling technologies and information fusion. It may allow for personalized, quantitative, and real-time assessment of sudden CVD events.

  3. Soft sensor development for Mooney viscosity prediction in rubber mixing process based on GMMDJITGPR algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Kai; Chen, Xiangguang; Wang, Li; Jin, Huaiping

    2017-01-01

    In rubber mixing process, the key parameter (Mooney viscosity), which is used to evaluate the property of the product, can only be obtained with 4-6h delay offline. It is quite helpful for the industry, if the parameter can be estimate on line. Various data driven soft sensors have been used to prediction in the rubber mixing. However, it always not functions well due to the phase and nonlinear property in the process. The purpose of this paper is to develop an efficient soft sensing algorithm to solve the problem. Based on the proposed GMMD local sample selecting criterion, the phase information is extracted in the local modeling. Using the Gaussian local modeling method within Just-in-time (JIT) learning framework, nonlinearity of the process is well handled. Efficiency of the new method is verified by comparing the performance with various mainstream soft sensors, using the samples from real industrial rubber mixing process.

  4. Design of artificial neural networks using a genetic algorithm to predict collection efficiency in venturi scrubbers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taheri, Mahboobeh; Mohebbi, Ali

    2008-08-30

    In this study, a new approach for the auto-design of neural networks, based on a genetic algorithm (GA), has been used to predict collection efficiency in venturi scrubbers. The experimental input data, including particle diameter, throat gas velocity, liquid to gas flow rate ratio, throat hydraulic diameter, pressure drop across the venturi scrubber and collection efficiency as an output, have been used to create a GA-artificial neural network (ANN) model. The testing results from the model are in good agreement with the experimental data. Comparison of the results of the GA optimized ANN model with the results from the trial-and-error calibrated ANN model indicates that the GA-ANN model is more efficient. Finally, the effects of operating parameters such as liquid to gas flow rate ratio, throat gas velocity, and particle diameter on collection efficiency were determined.

  5. XTALOPT version r11: An open-source evolutionary algorithm for crystal structure prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Avery, Patrick; Falls, Zackary; Zurek, Eva

    2018-01-01

    Version 11 of XTALOPT, an evolutionary algorithm for crystal structure prediction, has now been made available for download from the CPC library or the XTALOPT website, http://xtalopt.github.io. Whereas the previous versions of XTALOPT were published under the Gnu Public License (GPL), the current version is made available under the 3-Clause BSD License, which is an open source license that is recognized by the Open Source Initiative. Importantly, the new version can be executed via a command line interface (i.e., it does not require the use of a Graphical User Interface). Moreover, the new version is written as a stand-alone program, rather than an extension to AVOGADRO.

  6. Machine learning application in online lending risk prediction

    OpenAIRE

    Yu, Xiaojiao

    2017-01-01

    Online leading has disrupted the traditional consumer banking sector with more effective loan processing. Risk prediction and monitoring is critical for the success of the business model. Traditional credit score models fall short in applying big data technology in building risk model. In this manuscript, data with various format and size were collected from public website, third-parties and assembled with client's loan application information data. Ensemble machine learning models, random fo...

  7. Predictive risk factors for moderate to severe hyperbilirubinemia

    OpenAIRE

    Gláucia Macedo de Lima; Maria Amélia Sayeg Campos Porto; Arnaldo Prata Barbosa; Antonio José Ledo Alves da Cunha

    2007-01-01

    Objective: to describe predictive factors for severity of neonataljaundice in newborn infants treated at the University Neonatal Clinic,highlighting maternal, obstetric and neonatal factors. Methods: Acohort retrospective study by means of review of medical charts todefine risk factors associated with moderate and severe jaundice.The cohort consisted of newborns diagnosed with indirect neonatalhyperbilirubinemia and submitted to phototherapy. Risk was classifiedas maternal, prenatal, obstetri...

  8. Risk assessment and remedial policy evaluation using predictive modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Linkov, L.; Schell, W.R.

    1996-01-01

    As a result of nuclear industry operation and accidents, large areas of natural ecosystems have been contaminated by radionuclides and toxic metals. Extensive societal pressure has been exerted to decrease the radiation dose to the population and to the environment. Thus, in making abatement and remediation policy decisions, not only economic costs but also human and environmental risk assessments are desired. This paper introduces a general framework for risk assessment and remedial policy evaluation using predictive modeling. Ecological risk assessment requires evaluation of the radionuclide distribution in ecosystems. The FORESTPATH model is used for predicting the radionuclide fate in forest compartments after deposition as well as for evaluating the efficiency of remedial policies. Time of intervention and radionuclide deposition profile was predicted as being crucial for the remediation efficiency. Risk assessment conducted for a critical group of forest users in Belarus shows that consumption of forest products (berries and mushrooms) leads to about 0.004% risk of a fatal cancer annually. Cost-benefit analysis for forest cleanup suggests that complete removal of organic layer is too expensive for application in Belarus and a better methodology is required. In conclusion, FORESTPATH modeling framework could have wide applications in environmental remediation of radionuclides and toxic metals as well as in dose reconstruction and, risk-assessment

  9. Demonstration of the use of ADAPT to derive predictive maintenance algorithms for the KSC central heat plant

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunter, H. E.

    1972-01-01

    The Avco Data Analysis and Prediction Techniques (ADAPT) were employed to determine laws capable of detecting failures in a heat plant up to three days in advance of the occurrence of the failure. The projected performance of algorithms yielded a detection probability of 90% with false alarm rates of the order of 1 per year for a sample rate of 1 per day with each detection, followed by 3 hourly samplings. This performance was verified on 173 independent test cases. The program also demonstrated diagnostic algorithms and the ability to predict the time of failure to approximately plus or minus 8 hours up to three days in advance of the failure. The ADAPT programs produce simple algorithms which have a unique possibility of a relatively low cost updating procedure. The algorithms were implemented on general purpose computers at Kennedy Space Flight Center and tested against current data.

  10. The Impact of EuroSCORE II Risk Factors on Prediction of Long-Term Mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barili, Fabio; Pacini, Davide; D'Ovidio, Mariangela; Dang, Nicholas C; Alamanni, Francesco; Di Bartolomeo, Roberto; Grossi, Claudio; Davoli, Marina; Fusco, Danilo; Parolari, Alessandro

    2016-10-01

    The European System for Cardiac Operation Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) II has not been tested yet for predicting long-term mortality. This study was undertaken to evaluate the relationship between EuroSCORE II and long-term mortality and to develop a new algorithm based on EuroSCORE II factors to predict long-term survival after cardiac surgery. Complete data on 10,033 patients who underwent major cardiac surgery during a 7-year period were retrieved from three prospective institutional databases and linked with the Italian Tax Register Information System. Mortality at follow-up was analyzed with time-to-event analysis. The Kaplan-Meier estimates of survival at 1 and 5 were, respectively, 95.0% ± 0.2% and 84.7% ± 0.4%. Both discrimination and calibration of EuroSCORE II decreased in the prediction of 1-year and 5-year mortality. Nonetheless, EuroSCORE II was confirmed to be an independent predictor of long-term mortality with a nonlinear trend. Several EuroSCORE II variables were independent risk factors for long-term mortality in a regression model, most of all very low ejection fraction (less than 20%), salvage operation, and dialysis. In the final model, isolated mitral valve surgery and isolated coronary artery bypass graft surgery were associated with improved long-term survival. The EuroSCORE II cannot be considered a direct estimator of long-term risk of death, as its performance fades for mortality at follow-up longer than 30 days. Nonetheless, it is nonlinearly associated with long-term mortality, and most of its variables are risk factors for long-term mortality. Hence, they can be used in a different algorithm to stratify the risk of long-term mortality after surgery. Copyright © 2016 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Aid decision algorithms to estimate the risk in congenital heart surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruiz-Fernández, Daniel; Monsalve Torra, Ana; Soriano-Payá, Antonio; Marín-Alonso, Oscar; Triana Palencia, Eddy

    2016-04-01

    In this paper, we have tested the suitability of using different artificial intelligence-based algorithms for decision support when classifying the risk of congenital heart surgery. In this sense, classification of those surgical risks provides enormous benefits as the a priori estimation of surgical outcomes depending on either the type of disease or the type of repair, and other elements that influence the final result. This preventive estimation may help to avoid future complications, or even death. We have evaluated four machine learning algorithms to achieve our objective: multilayer perceptron, self-organizing map, radial basis function networks and decision trees. The architectures implemented have the aim of classifying among three types of surgical risk: low complexity, medium complexity and high complexity. Accuracy outcomes achieved range between 80% and 99%, being the multilayer perceptron method the one that offered a higher hit ratio. According to the results, it is feasible to develop a clinical decision support system using the evaluated algorithms. Such system would help cardiology specialists, paediatricians and surgeons to forecast the level of risk related to a congenital heart disease surgery. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Application of a rule extraction algorithm family based on the Re-RX algorithm to financial credit risk assessment from a Pareto optimal perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yoichi Hayashi

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Historically, the assessment of credit risk has proved to be both highly important and extremely difficult. Currently, financial institutions rely on the use of computer-generated credit scores for risk assessment. However, automated risk evaluations are currently imperfect, and the loss of vast amounts of capital could be prevented by improving the performance of computerized credit assessments. A number of approaches have been developed for the computation of credit scores over the last several decades, but these methods have been considered too complex without good interpretability and have therefore not been widely adopted. Therefore, in this study, we provide the first comprehensive comparison of results regarding the assessment of credit risk obtained using 10 runs of 10-fold cross validation of the Re-RX algorithm family, including the Re-RX algorithm, the Re-RX algorithm with both discrete and continuous attributes (Continuous Re-RX, the Re-RX algorithm with J48graft, the Re-RX algorithm with a trained neural network (Sampling Re-RX, NeuroLinear, NeuroLinear+GRG, and three unique rule extraction techniques involving support vector machines and Minerva from four real-life, two-class mixed credit-risk datasets. We also discuss the roles of various newly-extended types of the Re-RX algorithm and high performance classifiers from a Pareto optimal perspective. Our findings suggest that Continuous Re-RX, Re-RX with J48graft, and Sampling Re-RX comprise a powerful management tool that allows the creation of advanced, accurate, concise and interpretable decision support systems for credit risk evaluation. In addition, from a Pareto optimal perspective, the Re-RX algorithm family has superior features in relation to the comprehensibility of extracted rules and the potential for credit scoring with Big Data.

  13. PREDICTIVE CONTROL OF A BATCH POLYMERIZATION SYSTEM USING A FEEDFORWARD NEURAL NETWORK WITH ONLINE ADAPTATION BY GENETIC ALGORITHM

    OpenAIRE

    Cancelier, A.; Claumann, C. A.; Bolzan, A.; Machado, R. A. F.

    2016-01-01

    Abstract This study used a predictive controller based on an empirical nonlinear model comprising a three-layer feedforward neural network for temperature control of the suspension polymerization process. In addition to the offline training technique, an algorithm was also analyzed for online adaptation of its parameters. For the offline training, the network was statically trained and the genetic algorithm technique was used in combination with the least squares method. For online training, ...

  14. THE ROLE OF RISK AVERSION IN PREDICTING INDIVIDUAL BEHAVIOR

    OpenAIRE

    Luigi Guiso; Monica Paiella

    2005-01-01

    We use household survey data to construct a direct measure of absolute risk aversion based on the maximum price a consumer is willing to pay to buy a risky asset. We relate this measure to a set of consumers� decisions that in theory should vary with attitude towards risk. We find that elicited risk aversion has considerable predictive power for a number of key household decisions such as choice of occupation, portfolio selection, moving decisions and exposure to chronic diseases in ways co...

  15. A Homogeneous and Self-Dual Interior-Point Linear Programming Algorithm for Economic Model Predictive Control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sokoler, Leo Emil; Frison, Gianluca; Skajaa, Anders

    2015-01-01

    We develop an efficient homogeneous and self-dual interior-point method (IPM) for the linear programs arising in economic model predictive control of constrained linear systems with linear objective functions. The algorithm is based on a Riccati iteration procedure, which is adapted to the linear...... system of equations solved in homogeneous and self-dual IPMs. Fast convergence is further achieved using a warm-start strategy. We implement the algorithm in MATLAB and C. Its performance is tested using a conceptual power management case study. Closed loop simulations show that 1) the proposed algorithm...

  16. Intermediate-term medium-range earthquake prediction algorithm M8: A new spatially stabilized application in Italy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Romashkova, L.L.; Kossobokov, V.G.; Peresan, A.; Panza, G.F.

    2001-12-01

    A series of experiments, based on the intermediate-term earthquake prediction algorithm M8, has been performed for the retrospective simulation of forward predictions in the Italian territory, with the aim to design an experimental routine for real-time predictions. These experiments evidenced two main difficulties for the application of M8 in Italy. The first one is due to the fact that regional catalogues are usually limited in space. The second one concerns certain arbitrariness and instability, with respect to the positioning of the circles of investigation. Here we design a new scheme for the application of the algorithm M8, which is less subjective and less sensitive to the position of the circles of investigation. To perform this test, we consider a recent revision of the Italian catalogue, named UCI2001, composed by CCI1996, NEIC and ALPOR data for the period 1900-1985, and updated with the NEIC reduces the spatial heterogeneity of the data at the boundaries of Italy. The new variant of the M8 algorithm application reduces the number of spurious alarms and increases the reliability of predictions. As a result, three out of four earthquakes with magnitude M max larger than 6.0 are predicted in the retrospective simulation of the forward prediction, during the period 1972-2001, with a space-time volume of alarms comparable to that obtained with the non-stabilized variant of the M8 algorithm in Italy. (author)

  17. Predicting Student Academic Performance: A Comparison of Two Meta-Heuristic Algorithms Inspired by Cuckoo Birds for Training Neural Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeng-Fung Chen

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Predicting student academic performance with a high accuracy facilitates admission decisions and enhances educational services at educational institutions. This raises the need to propose a model that predicts student performance, based on the results of standardized exams, including university entrance exams, high school graduation exams, and other influential factors. In this study, an approach to the problem based on the artificial neural network (ANN with the two meta-heuristic algorithms inspired by cuckoo birds and their lifestyle, namely, Cuckoo Search (CS and Cuckoo Optimization Algorithm (COA is proposed. In particular, we used previous exam results and other factors, such as the location of the student’s high school and the student’s gender as input variables, and predicted the student academic performance. The standard CS and standard COA were separately utilized to train the feed-forward network for prediction. The algorithms optimized the weights between layers and biases of the neuron network. The simulation results were then discussed and analyzed to investigate the prediction ability of the neural network trained by these two algorithms. The findings demonstrated that both CS and COA have potential in training ANN and ANN-COA obtained slightly better results for predicting student academic performance in this case. It is expected that this work may be used to support student admission procedures and strengthen the service system in educational institutions.

  18. Long-term prediction of chaotic time series with multi-step prediction horizons by a neural network with Levenberg-Marquardt learning algorithm

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mirzaee, Hossein

    2009-01-01

    The Levenberg-Marquardt learning algorithm is applied for training a multilayer perception with three hidden layer each with ten neurons in order to carefully map the structure of chaotic time series such as Mackey-Glass time series. First the MLP network is trained with 1000 data, and then it is tested with next 500 data. After that the trained and tested network is applied for long-term prediction of next 120 data which come after test data. The prediction is such a way that, the first inputs to network for prediction are the four last data of test data, then the predicted value is shifted to the regression vector which is the input to the network, then after first four-step of prediction, the input regression vector to network is fully predicted values and in continue, each predicted data is shifted to input vector for subsequent prediction.

  19. Finding Risk Groups by Optimizing Artificial Neural Networks on the Area under the Survival Curve Using Genetic Algorithms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalderstam, Jonas; Edén, Patrik; Ohlsson, Mattias

    2015-01-01

    We investigate a new method to place patients into risk groups in censored survival data. Properties such as median survival time, and end survival rate, are implicitly improved by optimizing the area under the survival curve. Artificial neural networks (ANN) are trained to either maximize or minimize this area using a genetic algorithm, and combined into an ensemble to predict one of low, intermediate, or high risk groups. Estimated patient risk can influence treatment choices, and is important for study stratification. A common approach is to sort the patients according to a prognostic index and then group them along the quartile limits. The Cox proportional hazards model (Cox) is one example of this approach. Another method of doing risk grouping is recursive partitioning (Rpart), which constructs a decision tree where each branch point maximizes the statistical separation between the groups. ANN, Cox, and Rpart are compared on five publicly available data sets with varying properties. Cross-validation, as well as separate test sets, are used to validate the models. Results on the test sets show comparable performance, except for the smallest data set where Rpart's predicted risk groups turn out to be inverted, an example of crossing survival curves. Cross-validation shows that all three models exhibit crossing of some survival curves on this small data set but that the ANN model manages the best separation of groups in terms of median survival time before such crossings. The conclusion is that optimizing the area under the survival curve is a viable approach to identify risk groups. Training ANNs to optimize this area combines two key strengths from both prognostic indices and Rpart. First, a desired minimum group size can be specified, as for a prognostic index. Second, the ability to utilize non-linear effects among the covariates, which Rpart is also able to do.

  20. Dynamic Bayesian modeling for risk prediction in credit operations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Borchani, Hanen; Martinez, Ana Maria; Masegosa, Andres

    2015-01-01

    Our goal is to do risk prediction in credit operations, and as data is collected continuously and reported on a monthly basis, this gives rise to a streaming data classification problem. Our analysis reveals some practical problems that have not previously been thoroughly analyzed in the context...

  1. Prediction of postpartum blood transfusion – risk factors and recurrence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wikkelsø, Anne J; Hjortøe, Sofie; Gerds, Thomas A

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: The aim was to find clinically useful risk factors for postpartum transfusion and to assess the joint predictive value in a population of women with a first and second delivery. METHODS: All Danish women with a first and second delivery from January 2001 to September 2009 who gave birt...

  2. Predicting the risk of mineral deficiencies in grazing animals

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    lambs to mineral supplements can be used to predict risks of deficiency will be demonstrated. In both cases .... between body size and appetite, the onset of lactation or the feeding of ... possible importance of this in the aetiology of milk fever.

  3. Mountain Risks: From Prediction to Management and Governance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Petley

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Reviewed: Mountain Risks: From Prediction to Management and Governance. Edited by Theo Van Asch, Jordi Corominas, Stefan Greiving, Jean-Philippe Malet, and Sterlacchini Simone. Dordrecht, The Netherlands: Springer, 2014. xi + 413 pp. US$ 129.00, € 90.00, € 104.00. Also available as an e-book. ISBN 978-94-007-6768-3.

  4. Predicting disease risks from highly imbalanced data using random forest

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chakraborty Sounak

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background We present a method utilizing Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project (HCUP dataset for predicting disease risk of individuals based on their medical diagnosis history. The presented methodology may be incorporated in a variety of applications such as risk management, tailored health communication and decision support systems in healthcare. Methods We employed the National Inpatient Sample (NIS data, which is publicly available through Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project (HCUP, to train random forest classifiers for disease prediction. Since the HCUP data is highly imbalanced, we employed an ensemble learning approach based on repeated random sub-sampling. This technique divides the training data into multiple sub-samples, while ensuring that each sub-sample is fully balanced. We compared the performance of support vector machine (SVM, bagging, boosting and RF to predict the risk of eight chronic diseases. Results We predicted eight disease categories. Overall, the RF ensemble learning method outperformed SVM, bagging and boosting in terms of the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC curve (AUC. In addition, RF has the advantage of computing the importance of each variable in the classification process. Conclusions In combining repeated random sub-sampling with RF, we were able to overcome the class imbalance problem and achieve promising results. Using the national HCUP data set, we predicted eight disease categories with an average AUC of 88.79%.

  5. The role of risk propensity in predicting self-employment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nieß, Christiane; Biemann, Torsten

    2014-09-01

    This study aims to untangle the role of risk propensity as a predictor of self-employment entry and self-employment survival. More specifically, it examines whether the potentially positive effect of risk propensity on the decision to become self-employed turns curvilinear when it comes to the survival of the business. Building on a longitudinal sample of 4,973 individuals from the German Socio-Economic Panel, we used event history analyses to evaluate the influence of risk propensity on self-employment over a 7-year time period. Results indicated that whereas high levels of risk propensity positively predicted the decision to become self-employed, the relationship between risk propensity and self-employment survival followed an inverted U-shaped curve. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

  6. An algorithm for sequential tail value at risk for path-independent payoffs in a binomial tree

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roorda, Berend

    2010-01-01

    We present an algorithm that determines Sequential Tail Value at Risk (STVaR) for path-independent payoffs in a binomial tree. STVaR is a dynamic version of Tail-Value-at-Risk (TVaR) characterized by the property that risk levels at any moment must be in the range of risk levels later on. The

  7. Pharmacogenetics-based warfarin dosing algorithm decreases time to stable anticoagulation and the risk of major hemorrhage: an updated meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Zhi-Quan; Zhang, Rui; Zhang, Peng-Pai; Liu, Xiao-Hong; Sun, Jian; Wang, Jun; Feng, Xiang-Fei; Lu, Qiu-Fen; Li, Yi-Gang

    2015-04-01

    Warfarin is yet the most widely used oral anticoagulant for thromboembolic diseases, despite the recently emerged novel anticoagulants. However, difficulty in maintaining stable dose within the therapeutic range and subsequent serious adverse effects markedly limited its use in clinical practice. Pharmacogenetics-based warfarin dosing algorithm is a recently emerged strategy to predict the initial and maintaining dose of warfarin. However, whether this algorithm is superior over conventional clinically guided dosing algorithm remains controversial. We made a comparison of pharmacogenetics-based versus clinically guided dosing algorithm by an updated meta-analysis. We searched OVID MEDLINE, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Library for relevant citations. The primary outcome was the percentage of time in therapeutic range. The secondary outcomes were time to stable therapeutic dose and the risks of adverse events including all-cause mortality, thromboembolic events, total bleedings, and major bleedings. Eleven randomized controlled trials with 2639 participants were included. Our pooled estimates indicated that pharmacogenetics-based dosing algorithm did not improve percentage of time in therapeutic range [weighted mean difference, 4.26; 95% confidence interval (CI), -0.50 to 9.01; P = 0.08], but it significantly shortened the time to stable therapeutic dose (weighted mean difference, -8.67; 95% CI, -11.86 to -5.49; P pharmacogenetics-based algorithm significantly reduced the risk of major bleedings (odds ratio, 0.48; 95% CI, 0.23 to 0.98; P = 0.04), but it did not reduce the risks of all-cause mortality, total bleedings, or thromboembolic events. Our results suggest that pharmacogenetics-based warfarin dosing algorithm significantly improves the efficiency of International Normalized Ratio correction and reduces the risk of major hemorrhage.

  8. Prediction and optimization of thinning in automotive sealing cover using Genetic Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ganesh M. Kakandikar

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Deep drawing is a forming process in which a blank of sheet metal is radially drawn into a forming die by the mechanical action of a punch and converted to required shape. Deep drawing involves complex material flow conditions and force distributions. Radial drawing stresses and tangential compressive stresses are induced in flange region due to the material retention property. These compressive stresses result in wrinkling phenomenon in flange region. Normally blank holder is applied for restricting wrinkles. Tensile stresses in radial direction initiate thinning in the wall region of cup. The thinning results into cracking or fracture. The finite element method is widely applied worldwide to simulate the deep drawing process. For real-life simulations of deep drawing process an accurate numerical model, as well as an accurate description of material behavior and contact conditions, is necessary. The finite element method is a powerful tool to predict material thinning deformations before prototypes are made. The proposed innovative methodology combines two techniques for prediction and optimization of thinning in automotive sealing cover. Taguchi design of experiments and analysis of variance has been applied to analyze the influencing process parameters on Thinning. Mathematical relations have been developed to correlate input process parameters and Thinning. Optimization problem has been formulated for thinning and Genetic Algorithm has been applied for optimization. Experimental validation of results proves the applicability of newly proposed approach. The optimized component when manufactured is observed to be safe, no thinning or fracture is observed.

  9. Prediction of Flood Warning in Taiwan Using Nonlinear SVM with Simulated Annealing Algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, C.

    2013-12-01

    The issue of the floods is important in Taiwan. It is because the narrow and high topography of the island make lots of rivers steep in Taiwan. The tropical depression likes typhoon always causes rivers to flood. Prediction of river flow under the extreme rainfall circumstances is important for government to announce the warning of flood. Every time typhoon passed through Taiwan, there were always floods along some rivers. The warning is classified to three levels according to the warning water levels in Taiwan. The propose of this study is to predict the level of floods warning from the information of precipitation, rainfall duration and slope of riverbed. To classify the level of floods warning by the above-mentioned information and modeling the problems, a machine learning model, nonlinear Support vector machine (SVM), is formulated to classify the level of floods warning. In addition, simulated annealing (SA), a probabilistic heuristic algorithm, is used to determine the optimal parameter of the SVM model. A case study of flooding-trend rivers of different gradients in Taiwan is conducted. The contribution of this SVM model with simulated annealing is capable of making efficient announcement for flood warning and keeping the danger of flood from residents along the rivers.

  10. Risk adjusted surgical audit in gynaecological oncology: P-POSSUM does not predict outcome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, N; Talaat, A S; Naik, R; Lopes, A D; Godfrey, K A; Hatem, M H; Edmondson, R J

    2006-12-01

    To assess the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enumeration of mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) and its validity for use in gynaecological oncology surgery. All patients undergoing gynaecological oncology surgery at the Northern Gynaecological Oncology Centre (NGOC) Gateshead, UK over a period of 12months (2002-2003) were assessed prospectively. Mortality and morbidity predictions using the Portsmouth modification of the POSSUM algorithm (P-POSSUM) were compared to the actual outcomes. Performance of the model was also evaluated using the Hosmer and Lemeshow Chi square statistic (testing the goodness of fit). During this period 468 patients were assessed. The P-POSSUM appeared to over predict mortality rates for our patients. It predicted a 7% mortality rate for our patients compared to an observed rate of 2% (35 predicted deaths in comparison to 10 observed deaths), a difference that was statistically significant (H&L chi(2)=542.9, d.f. 8, prisk of mortality for gynaecological oncology patients undergoing surgery. The P-POSSUM algorithm will require further adjustments prior to adoption for gynaecological cancer surgery as a risk adjusted surgical audit tool.

  11. Predicting risk of violence through a self-appraisal questionnaire

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Manuel Andreu-Rodríguez

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The Self-Appraisal Questionnaire (SAQ is a self-report that predicts the risk of violence and recidivism and provides relevant information about treatment needs for incarcerated populations. The objective of the present study was to evaluate the concurrent and predictive validity of this self-report in Spanish offenders. The SAQ was administered to 276 offenders recruited from several prisons in Madrid (Spain. SAQ total scores presented high levels of internal consistency (alpha = .92. Correlations of the instrument with violence risk instruments were statistically significant and showed a moderate magnitude, indicating a reasonable degree of concurrent validity. The ROC analysis carried out on the SAQ total score revealed an AUC of .80, showing acceptable accuracy discriminating between violent and nonviolent recidivist groups. It is concluded that the SAQ total score is a reliable and valid measure to estimate violence and recidivism risk in Spanish offenders.

  12. An O(n(5)) algorithm for MFE prediction of kissing hairpins and 4-chains in nucleic acids.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Ho-Lin; Condon, Anne; Jabbari, Hosna

    2009-06-01

    Efficient methods for prediction of minimum free energy (MFE) nucleic secondary structures are widely used, both to better understand structure and function of biological RNAs and to design novel nano-structures. Here, we present a new algorithm for MFE secondary structure prediction, which significantly expands the class of structures that can be handled in O(n(5)) time. Our algorithm can handle H-type pseudoknotted structures, kissing hairpins, and chains of four overlapping stems, as well as nested substructures of these types.

  13. Risk predictive modelling for diabetes and cardiovascular disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kengne, Andre Pascal; Masconi, Katya; Mbanya, Vivian Nchanchou; Lekoubou, Alain; Echouffo-Tcheugui, Justin Basile; Matsha, Tandi E

    2014-02-01

    Absolute risk models or clinical prediction models have been incorporated in guidelines, and are increasingly advocated as tools to assist risk stratification and guide prevention and treatments decisions relating to common health conditions such as cardiovascular disease (CVD) and diabetes mellitus. We have reviewed the historical development and principles of prediction research, including their statistical underpinning, as well as implications for routine practice, with a focus on predictive modelling for CVD and diabetes. Predictive modelling for CVD risk, which has developed over the last five decades, has been largely influenced by the Framingham Heart Study investigators, while it is only ∼20 years ago that similar efforts were started in the field of diabetes. Identification of predictive factors is an important preliminary step which provides the knowledge base on potential predictors to be tested for inclusion during the statistical derivation of the final model. The derived models must then be tested both on the development sample (internal validation) and on other populations in different settings (external validation). Updating procedures (e.g. recalibration) should be used to improve the performance of models that fail the tests of external validation. Ultimately, the effect of introducing validated models in routine practice on the process and outcomes of care as well as its cost-effectiveness should be tested in impact studies before wide dissemination of models beyond the research context. Several predictions models have been developed for CVD or diabetes, but very few have been externally validated or tested in impact studies, and their comparative performance has yet to be fully assessed. A shift of focus from developing new CVD or diabetes prediction models to validating the existing ones will improve their adoption in routine practice.

  14. Short communication: Prediction of retention pay-off using a machine learning algorithm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shahinfar, Saleh; Kalantari, Afshin S; Cabrera, Victor; Weigel, Kent

    2014-05-01

    Replacement decisions have a major effect on dairy farm profitability. Dynamic programming (DP) has been widely studied to find the optimal replacement policies in dairy cattle. However, DP models are computationally intensive and might not be practical for daily decision making. Hence, the ability of applying machine learning on a prerun DP model to provide fast and accurate predictions of nonlinear and intercorrelated variables makes it an ideal methodology. Milk class (1 to 5), lactation number (1 to 9), month in milk (1 to 20), and month of pregnancy (0 to 9) were used to describe all cows in a herd in a DP model. Twenty-seven scenarios based on all combinations of 3 levels (base, 20% above, and 20% below) of milk production, milk price, and replacement cost were solved with the DP model, resulting in a data set of 122,716 records, each with a calculated retention pay-off (RPO). Then, a machine learning model tree algorithm was used to mimic the evaluated RPO with DP. The correlation coefficient factor was used to observe the concordance of RPO evaluated by DP and RPO predicted by the model tree. The obtained correlation coefficient was 0.991, with a corresponding value of 0.11 for relative absolute error. At least 100 instances were required per model constraint, resulting in 204 total equations (models). When these models were used for binary classification of positive and negative RPO, error rates were 1% false negatives and 9% false positives. Applying this trained model from simulated data for prediction of RPO for 102 actual replacement records from the University of Wisconsin-Madison dairy herd resulted in a 0.994 correlation with 0.10 relative absolute error rate. Overall results showed that model tree has a potential to be used in conjunction with DP to assist farmers in their replacement decisions. Copyright © 2014 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Predicting recurrent aphthous ulceration using genetic algorithms-optimized neural networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Najla S Dar-Odeh

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Najla S Dar-Odeh1, Othman M Alsmadi2, Faris Bakri3, Zaer Abu-Hammour2, Asem A Shehabi3, Mahmoud K Al-Omiri1, Shatha M K Abu-Hammad4, Hamzeh Al-Mashni4, Mohammad B Saeed4, Wael Muqbil4, Osama A Abu-Hammad1 1Faculty of Dentistry, 2Faculty of Engineering and Technology, 3Faculty of Medicine, University of Jordan, Amman, Jordan; 4Dental Department, University of Jordan Hospital, Amman, JordanObjective: To construct and optimize a neural network that is capable of predicting the occurrence of recurrent aphthous ulceration (RAU based on a set of appropriate input data.Participants and methods: Artificial neural networks (ANN software employing genetic algorithms to optimize the architecture neural networks was used. Input and output data of 86 participants (predisposing factors and status of the participants with regards to recurrent aphthous ulceration were used to construct and train the neural networks. The optimized neural networks were then tested using untrained data of a further 10 participants.Results: The optimized neural network, which produced the most accurate predictions for the presence or absence of recurrent aphthous ulceration was found to employ: gender, hematological (with or without ferritin and mycological data of the participants, frequency of tooth brushing, and consumption of vegetables and fruits.Conclusions: Factors appearing to be related to recurrent aphthous ulceration and appropriate for use as input data to construct ANNs that predict recurrent aphthous ulceration were found to include the following: gender, hemoglobin, serum vitamin B12, serum ferritin, red cell folate, salivary candidal colony count, frequency of tooth brushing, and the number of fruits or vegetables consumed daily.Keywords: artifical neural networks, recurrent, aphthous ulceration, ulcer

  16. Calibration plots for risk prediction models in the presence of competing risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerds, Thomas A; Andersen, Per K; Kattan, Michael W

    2014-08-15

    A predicted risk of 17% can be called reliable if it can be expected that the event will occur to about 17 of 100 patients who all received a predicted risk of 17%. Statistical models can predict the absolute risk of an event such as cardiovascular death in the presence of competing risks such as death due to other causes. For personalized medicine and patient counseling, it is necessary to check that the model is calibrated in the sense that it provides reliable predictions for all subjects. There are three often encountered practical problems when the aim is to display or test if a risk prediction model is well calibrated. The first is lack of independent validation data, the second is right censoring, and the third is that when the risk scale is continuous, the estimation problem is as difficult as density estimation. To deal with these problems, we propose to estimate calibration curves for competing risks models based on jackknife pseudo-values that are combined with a nearest neighborhood smoother and a cross-validation approach to deal with all three problems. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  17. Providing access to risk prediction tools via the HL7 XML-formatted risk web service.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chipman, Jonathan; Drohan, Brian; Blackford, Amanda; Parmigiani, Giovanni; Hughes, Kevin; Bosinoff, Phil

    2013-07-01

    Cancer risk prediction tools provide valuable information to clinicians but remain computationally challenging. Many clinics find that CaGene or HughesRiskApps fit their needs for easy- and ready-to-use software to obtain cancer risks; however, these resources may not fit all clinics' needs. The HughesRiskApps Group and BayesMendel Lab therefore developed a web service, called "Risk Service", which may be integrated into any client software to quickly obtain standardized and up-to-date risk predictions for BayesMendel tools (BRCAPRO, MMRpro, PancPRO, and MelaPRO), the Tyrer-Cuzick IBIS Breast Cancer Risk Evaluation Tool, and the Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool. Software clients that can convert their local structured data into the HL7 XML-formatted family and clinical patient history (Pedigree model) may integrate with the Risk Service. The Risk Service uses Apache Tomcat and Apache Axis2 technologies to provide an all Java web service. The software client sends HL7 XML information containing anonymized family and clinical history to a Dana-Farber Cancer Institute (DFCI) server, where it is parsed, interpreted, and processed by multiple risk tools. The Risk Service then formats the results into an HL7 style message and returns the risk predictions to the originating software client. Upon consent, users may allow DFCI to maintain the data for future research. The Risk Service implementation is exemplified through HughesRiskApps. The Risk Service broadens the availability of valuable, up-to-date cancer risk tools and allows clinics and researchers to integrate risk prediction tools into their own software interface designed for their needs. Each software package can collect risk data using its own interface, and display the results using its own interface, while using a central, up-to-date risk calculator. This allows users to choose from multiple interfaces while always getting the latest risk calculations. Consenting users contribute their data for future

  18. The Reliability and Predictive Validity of the Stalking Risk Profile.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McEwan, Troy E; Shea, Daniel E; Daffern, Michael; MacKenzie, Rachel D; Ogloff, James R P; Mullen, Paul E

    2018-03-01

    This study assessed the reliability and validity of the Stalking Risk Profile (SRP), a structured measure for assessing stalking risks. The SRP was administered at the point of assessment or retrospectively from file review for 241 adult stalkers (91% male) referred to a community-based forensic mental health service. Interrater reliability was high for stalker type, and moderate-to-substantial for risk judgments and domain scores. Evidence for predictive validity and discrimination between stalking recidivists and nonrecidivists for risk judgments depended on follow-up duration. Discrimination was moderate (area under the curve = 0.66-0.68) and positive and negative predictive values good over the full follow-up period ( Mdn = 170.43 weeks). At 6 months, discrimination was better than chance only for judgments related to stalking of new victims (area under the curve = 0.75); however, high-risk stalkers still reoffended against their original victim(s) 2 to 4 times as often as low-risk stalkers. Implications for the clinical utility and refinement of the SRP are discussed.

  19. Combinatorial Algorithms for Portfolio Optimization Problems - Case of Risk Moderate Investor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juarna, A.

    2017-03-01

    Portfolio optimization problem is a problem of finding optimal combination of n stocks from N ≥ n available stocks that gives maximal aggregate return and minimal aggregate risk. In this paper given N = 43 from the IDX (Indonesia Stock Exchange) group of the 45 most-traded stocks, known as the LQ45, with p = 24 data of monthly returns for each stock, spanned over interval 2013-2014. This problem actually is a combinatorial one where its algorithm is constructed based on two considerations: risk moderate type of investor and maximum allowed correlation coefficient between every two eligible stocks. The main outputs resulted from implementation of the algorithms is a multiple curve of three portfolio’s attributes, e.g. the size, the ratio of return to risk, and the percentage of negative correlation coefficient for every two chosen stocks, as function of maximum allowed correlation coefficient between each two stocks. The output curve shows that the portfolio contains three stocks with ratio of return to risk at 14.57 if the maximum allowed correlation coefficient between every two eligible stocks is negative and contains 19 stocks with maximum allowed correlation coefficient 0.17 to get maximum ratio of return to risk at 25.48.

  20. Predicting impacts of climate change on Fasciola hepatica risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fox, Naomi J; White, Piran C L; McClean, Colin J; Marion, Glenn; Evans, Andy; Hutchings, Michael R

    2011-01-10

    Fasciola hepatica (liver fluke) is a physically and economically devastating parasitic trematode whose rise in recent years has been attributed to climate change. Climate has an impact on the free-living stages of the parasite and its intermediate host Lymnaea truncatula, with the interactions between rainfall and temperature having the greatest influence on transmission efficacy. There have been a number of short term climate driven forecasts developed to predict the following season's infection risk, with the Ollerenshaw index being the most widely used. Through the synthesis of a modified Ollerenshaw index with the UKCP09 fine scale climate projection data we have developed long term seasonal risk forecasts up to 2070 at a 25 km square resolution. Additionally UKCIP gridded datasets at 5 km square resolution from 1970-2006 were used to highlight the climate-driven increase to date. The maps show unprecedented levels of future fasciolosis risk in parts of the UK, with risk of serious epidemics in Wales by 2050. The seasonal risk maps demonstrate the possible change in the timing of disease outbreaks due to increased risk from overwintering larvae. Despite an overall long term increase in all regions of the UK, spatio-temporal variation in risk levels is expected. Infection risk will reduce in some areas and fluctuate greatly in others with a predicted decrease in summer infection for parts of the UK due to restricted water availability. This forecast is the first approximation of the potential impacts of climate change on fasciolosis risk in the UK. It can be used as a basis for indicating where active disease surveillance should be targeted and where the development of improved mitigation or adaptation measures is likely to bring the greatest benefits.

  1. Predicting impacts of climate change on Fasciola hepatica risk.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naomi J Fox

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Fasciola hepatica (liver fluke is a physically and economically devastating parasitic trematode whose rise in recent years has been attributed to climate change. Climate has an impact on the free-living stages of the parasite and its intermediate host Lymnaea truncatula, with the interactions between rainfall and temperature having the greatest influence on transmission efficacy. There have been a number of short term climate driven forecasts developed to predict the following season's infection risk, with the Ollerenshaw index being the most widely used. Through the synthesis of a modified Ollerenshaw index with the UKCP09 fine scale climate projection data we have developed long term seasonal risk forecasts up to 2070 at a 25 km square resolution. Additionally UKCIP gridded datasets at 5 km square resolution from 1970-2006 were used to highlight the climate-driven increase to date. The maps show unprecedented levels of future fasciolosis risk in parts of the UK, with risk of serious epidemics in Wales by 2050. The seasonal risk maps demonstrate the possible change in the timing of disease outbreaks due to increased risk from overwintering larvae. Despite an overall long term increase in all regions of the UK, spatio-temporal variation in risk levels is expected. Infection risk will reduce in some areas and fluctuate greatly in others with a predicted decrease in summer infection for parts of the UK due to restricted water availability. This forecast is the first approximation of the potential impacts of climate change on fasciolosis risk in the UK. It can be used as a basis for indicating where active disease surveillance should be targeted and where the development of improved mitigation or adaptation measures is likely to bring the greatest benefits.

  2. A grand canonical genetic algorithm for the prediction of multi-component phase diagrams and testing of empirical potentials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tipton, William W; Hennig, Richard G

    2013-01-01

    We present an evolutionary algorithm which predicts stable atomic structures and phase diagrams by searching the energy landscape of empirical and ab initio Hamiltonians. Composition and geometrical degrees of freedom may be varied simultaneously. We show that this method utilizes information from favorable local structure at one composition to predict that at others, achieving far greater efficiency of phase diagram prediction than a method which relies on sampling compositions individually. We detail this and a number of other efficiency-improving techniques implemented in the genetic algorithm for structure prediction code that is now publicly available. We test the efficiency of the software by searching the ternary Zr–Cu–Al system using an empirical embedded-atom model potential. In addition to testing the algorithm, we also evaluate the accuracy of the potential itself. We find that the potential stabilizes several correct ternary phases, while a few of the predicted ground states are unphysical. Our results suggest that genetic algorithm searches can be used to improve the methodology of empirical potential design. (paper)

  3. A grand canonical genetic algorithm for the prediction of multi-component phase diagrams and testing of empirical potentials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tipton, William W; Hennig, Richard G

    2013-12-11

    We present an evolutionary algorithm which predicts stable atomic structures and phase diagrams by searching the energy landscape of empirical and ab initio Hamiltonians. Composition and geometrical degrees of freedom may be varied simultaneously. We show that this method utilizes information from favorable local structure at one composition to predict that at others, achieving far greater efficiency of phase diagram prediction than a method which relies on sampling compositions individually. We detail this and a number of other efficiency-improving techniques implemented in the genetic algorithm for structure prediction code that is now publicly available. We test the efficiency of the software by searching the ternary Zr-Cu-Al system using an empirical embedded-atom model potential. In addition to testing the algorithm, we also evaluate the accuracy of the potential itself. We find that the potential stabilizes several correct ternary phases, while a few of the predicted ground states are unphysical. Our results suggest that genetic algorithm searches can be used to improve the methodology of empirical potential design.

  4. Predicting complication risk in spine surgery: a prospective analysis of a novel risk assessment tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veeravagu, Anand; Li, Amy; Swinney, Christian; Tian, Lu; Moraff, Adrienne; Azad, Tej D; Cheng, Ivan; Alamin, Todd; Hu, Serena S; Anderson, Robert L; Shuer, Lawrence; Desai, Atman; Park, Jon; Olshen, Richard A; Ratliff, John K

    2017-07-01

    OBJECTIVE The ability to assess the risk of adverse events based on known patient factors and comorbidities would provide more effective preoperative risk stratification. Present risk assessment in spine surgery is limited. An adverse event prediction tool was developed to predict the risk of complications after spine surgery and tested on a prospective patient cohort. METHODS The spinal Risk Assessment Tool (RAT), a novel instrument for the assessment of risk for patients undergoing spine surgery that was developed based on an administrative claims database, was prospectively applied to 246 patients undergoing 257 spinal procedures over a 3-month period. Prospectively collected data were used to compare the RAT to the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) and the American College of Surgeons National Surgery Quality Improvement Program (ACS NSQIP) Surgical Risk Calculator. Study end point was occurrence and type of complication after spine surgery. RESULTS The authors identified 69 patients (73 procedures) who experienced a complication over the prospective study period. Cardiac complications were most common (10.2%). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were calculated to compare complication outcomes using the different assessment tools. Area under the curve (AUC) analysis showed comparable predictive accuracy between the RAT and the ACS NSQIP calculator (0.670 [95% CI 0.60-0.74] in RAT, 0.669 [95% CI 0.60-0.74] in NSQIP). The CCI was not accurate in predicting complication occurrence (0.55 [95% CI 0.48-0.62]). The RAT produced mean probabilities of 34.6% for patients who had a complication and 24% for patients who did not (p = 0.0003). The generated predicted values were stratified into low, medium, and high rates. For the RAT, the predicted complication rate was 10.1% in the low-risk group (observed rate 12.8%), 21.9% in the medium-risk group (observed 31.8%), and 49.7% in the high-risk group (observed 41.2%). The ACS NSQIP calculator consistently

  5. Machine learning derived risk prediction of anorexia nervosa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Yiran; Wei, Zhi; Keating, Brendan J; Hakonarson, Hakon

    2016-01-20

    Anorexia nervosa (AN) is a complex psychiatric disease with a moderate to strong genetic contribution. In addition to conventional genome wide association (GWA) studies, researchers have been using machine learning methods in conjunction with genomic data to predict risk of diseases in which genetics play an important role. In this study, we collected whole genome genotyping data on 3940 AN cases and 9266 controls from the Genetic Consortium for Anorexia Nervosa (GCAN), the Wellcome Trust Case Control Consortium 3 (WTCCC3), Price Foundation Collaborative Group and the Children's Hospital of Philadelphia (CHOP), and applied machine learning methods for predicting AN disease risk. The prediction performance is measured by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), indicating how well the model distinguishes cases from unaffected control subjects. Logistic regression model with the lasso penalty technique generated an AUC of 0.693, while Support Vector Machines and Gradient Boosted Trees reached AUC's of 0.691 and 0.623, respectively. Using different sample sizes, our results suggest that larger datasets are required to optimize the machine learning models and achieve higher AUC values. To our knowledge, this is the first attempt to assess AN risk based on genome wide genotype level data. Future integration of genomic, environmental and family-based information is likely to improve the AN risk evaluation process, eventually benefitting AN patients and families in the clinical setting.

  6. Predictive risk factors for moderate to severe hyperbilirubinemia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gláucia Macedo de Lima

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Objective: to describe predictive factors for severity of neonataljaundice in newborn infants treated at the University Neonatal Clinic,highlighting maternal, obstetric and neonatal factors. Methods: Acohort retrospective study by means of review of medical charts todefine risk factors associated with moderate and severe jaundice.The cohort consisted of newborns diagnosed with indirect neonatalhyperbilirubinemia and submitted to phototherapy. Risk was classifiedas maternal, prenatal, obstetric and neonatal factors; risk estimationwas based on the odds ratio (95% confidence interval; a bi-variantmultivariate regression logistic analysis was applied to variables forp < 0.1. Results: Of 818 babies born during the studied period, 94(11% had jaundice prior to hospital discharge. Phototherapy was usedon 69 (73% patients. Predictive factors for severity were multiparity;prolonged rupture of membranes, dystocia, cephalohematoma, a lowApgar score, prematurity and small-for-date babies. Following birth,breastfeeding, sepsis, Rh incompatibility, and jaundice presentingbefore the third day of life were associated with an increased risk ofhyperbilirubinemia and the need for therapy. Conclusion: Other thanthose characteristics that are singly associated with phototherapy,we concluded that multiparity, presumed neonatal asphyxia, low birthweight and infection are the main predictive factors leading to moderateand severe jaundice in newborn infants in our neonatal unit.

  7. A risk prediction model for xerostomia: a retrospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villa, Alessandro; Nordio, Francesco; Gohel, Anita

    2016-12-01

    We investigated the prevalence of xerostomia in dental patients and built a xerostomia risk prediction model by incorporating a wide range of risk factors. Socio-demographic data, past medical history, self-reported dry mouth and related symptoms were collected retrospectively from January 2010 to September 2013 for all new dental patients. A logistic regression framework was used to build a risk prediction model for xerostomia. External validation was performed using an independent data set to test the prediction power. A total of 12 682 patients were included in this analysis (54.3%, females). Xerostomia was reported by 12.2% of patients. The proportion of people reporting xerostomia was higher among those who were taking more medications (OR = 1.11, 95% CI = 1.08-1.13) or recreational drug users (OR = 1.4, 95% CI = 1.1-1.9). Rheumatic diseases (OR = 2.17, 95% CI = 1.88-2.51), psychiatric diseases (OR = 2.34, 95% CI = 2.05-2.68), eating disorders (OR = 2.28, 95% CI = 1.55-3.36) and radiotherapy (OR = 2.00, 95% CI = 1.43-2.80) were good predictors of xerostomia. For the test model performance, the ROC-AUC was 0.816 and in the external validation sample, the ROC-AUC was 0.799. The xerostomia risk prediction model had high accuracy and discriminated between high- and low-risk individuals. Clinicians could use this model to identify the classes of medications and systemic diseases associated with xerostomia. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S and The Gerodontology Association. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  8. Lung cancer in never smokers Epidemiology and risk prediction models

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCarthy, William J.; Meza, Rafael; Jeon, Jihyoun; Moolgavkar, Suresh

    2012-01-01

    In this chapter we review the epidemiology of lung cancer incidence and mortality among never smokers/ nonsmokers and describe the never smoker lung cancer risk models used by CISNET modelers. Our review focuses on those influences likely to have measurable population impact on never smoker risk, such as secondhand smoke, even though the individual-level impact may be small. Occupational exposures may also contribute importantly to the population attributable risk of lung cancer. We examine the following risk factors in this chapter: age, environmental tobacco smoke, cooking fumes, ionizing radiation including radon gas, inherited genetic susceptibility, selected occupational exposures, preexisting lung disease, and oncogenic viruses. We also compare the prevalence of never smokers between the three CISNET smoking scenarios and present the corresponding lung cancer mortality estimates among never smokers as predicted by a typical CISNET model. PMID:22882894

  9. Cumulative risk hypothesis: Predicting and preventing child maltreatment recidivism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solomon, David; Åsberg, Kia; Peer, Samuel; Prince, Gwendolyn

    2016-08-01

    Although Child Protective Services (CPS) and other child welfare agencies aim to prevent further maltreatment in cases of child abuse and neglect, recidivism is common. Having a better understanding of recidivism predictors could aid in preventing additional instances of maltreatment. A previous study identified two CPS interventions that predicted recidivism: psychotherapy for the parent, which was related to a reduced risk of recidivism, and temporary removal of the child from the parent's custody, which was related to an increased recidivism risk. However, counter to expectations, this previous study did not identify any other specific risk factors related to maltreatment recidivism. For the current study, it was hypothesized that (a) cumulative risk (i.e., the total number of risk factors) would significantly predict maltreatment recidivism above and beyond intervention variables in a sample of CPS case files and that (b) therapy for the parent would be related to a reduced likelihood of recidivism. Because it was believed that the relation between temporary removal of a child from the parent's custody and maltreatment recidivism is explained by cumulative risk, the study also hypothesized that that the relation between temporary removal of the child from the parent's custody and recidivism would be mediated by cumulative risk. After performing a hierarchical logistic regression analysis, the first two hypotheses were supported, and an additional predictor, psychotherapy for the child, also was related to reduced chances of recidivism. However, Hypothesis 3 was not supported, as risk did not significantly mediate the relation between temporary removal and recidivism. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Predicting risk and human reliability: a new approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duffey, R.; Ha, T.-S.

    2009-01-01

    Learning from experience describes human reliability and skill acquisition, and the resulting theory has been validated by comparison against millions of outcome data from multiple industries and technologies worldwide. The resulting predictions were used to benchmark the classic first generation human reliability methods adopted in probabilistic risk assessments. The learning rate, probabilities and response times are also consistent with the existing psychological models for human learning and error correction. The new approach also implies a finite lower bound probability that is not predicted by empirical statistical distributions that ignore the known and fundamental learning effects. (author)

  11. Positive predictive value of a register-based algorithm using the Danish National Registries to identify suicidal events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gasse, Christiane; Danielsen, Andreas Aalkjaer; Pedersen, Marianne Giørtz; Pedersen, Carsten Bøcker; Mors, Ole; Christensen, Jakob

    2018-04-17

    It is not possible to fully assess intention of self-harm and suicidal events using information from administrative databases. We conducted a validation study of intention of suicide attempts/self-harm contacts identified by a commonly applied Danish register-based algorithm (DK-algorithm) based on hospital discharge diagnosis and emergency room contacts. Of all 101 530 people identified with an incident suicide attempt/self-harm contact at Danish hospitals between 1995 and 2012 using the DK-algorithm, we selected a random sample of 475 people. We validated the DK-algorithm against medical records applying the definitions and terminology of the Columbia Classification Algorithm of Suicide Assessment of suicidal events, nonsuicidal events, and indeterminate or potentially suicidal events. We calculated positive predictive values (PPVs) of the DK-algorithm to identify suicidal events overall, by gender, age groups, and calendar time. We retrieved medical records for 357 (75%) people. The PPV of the DK-algorithm to identify suicidal events was 51.5% (95% CI: 46.4-56.7) overall, 42.7% (95% CI: 35.2-50.5) in males, and 58.5% (95% CI: 51.6-65.1) in females. The PPV varied further across age groups and calendar time. After excluding cases identified via the DK-algorithm by unspecific codes of intoxications and injury, the PPV improved slightly (56.8% [95% CI: 50.0-63.4]). The DK-algorithm can reliably identify self-harm with suicidal intention in 52% of the identified cases of suicide attempts/self-harm. The PPVs could be used for quantitative bias analysis and implemented as weights in future studies to estimate the proportion of suicidal events among cases identified via the DK-algorithm. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  12. Risk score predicts high-grade prostate cancer in DNA-methylation positive, histopathologically negative biopsies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Neste, Leander; Partin, Alan W; Stewart, Grant D; Epstein, Jonathan I; Harrison, David J; Van Criekinge, Wim

    2016-09-01

    Prostate cancer (PCa) diagnosis is challenging because efforts for effective, timely treatment of men with significant cancer typically result in over-diagnosis and repeat biopsies. The presence or absence of epigenetic aberrations, more specifically DNA-methylation of GSTP1, RASSF1, and APC in histopathologically negative prostate core biopsies has resulted in an increased negative predictive value (NPV) of ∼90% and thus could lead to a reduction of unnecessary repeat biopsies. Here, it is investigated whether, in methylation-positive men, DNA-methylation intensities could help to identify those men harboring high-grade (Gleason score ≥7) PCa, resulting in an improved positive predictive value. Two cohorts, consisting of men with histopathologically negative index biopsies, followed by a positive or negative repeat biopsy, were combined. EpiScore, a methylation intensity algorithm was developed in methylation-positive men, using area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic as metric for performance. Next, a risk score was developed combining EpiScore with traditional clinical risk factors to further improve the identification of high-grade (Gleason Score ≥7) cancer. Compared to other risk factors, detection of DNA-methylation in histopathologically negative biopsies was the most significant and important predictor of high-grade cancer, resulting in a NPV of 96%. In methylation-positive men, EpiScore was significantly higher for those with high-grade cancer detected upon repeat biopsy, compared to those with either no or low-grade cancer. The risk score resulted in further improvement of patient risk stratification and was a significantly better predictor compared to currently used metrics as PSA and the prostate cancer prevention trial (PCPT) risk calculator (RC). A decision curve analysis indicated strong clinical utility for the risk score as decision-making tool for repeat biopsy. Low DNA-methylation levels in PCa-negative biopsies led

  13. SU-C-BRF-07: A Pattern Fusion Algorithm for Multi-Step Ahead Prediction of Surrogate Motion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zawisza, I; Yan, H; Yin, F

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: To assure that tumor motion is within the radiation field during high-dose and high-precision radiosurgery, real-time imaging and surrogate monitoring are employed. These methods are useful in providing real-time tumor/surrogate motion but no future information is available. In order to anticipate future tumor/surrogate motion and track target location precisely, an algorithm is developed and investigated for estimating surrogate motion multiple-steps ahead. Methods: The study utilized a one-dimensional surrogate motion signal divided into three components: (a) training component containing the primary data including the first frame to the beginning of the input subsequence; (b) input subsequence component of the surrogate signal used as input to the prediction algorithm: (c) output subsequence component is the remaining signal used as the known output of the prediction algorithm for validation. The prediction algorithm consists of three major steps: (1) extracting subsequences from training component which best-match the input subsequence according to given criterion; (2) calculating weighting factors from these best-matched subsequence; (3) collecting the proceeding parts of the subsequences and combining them together with assigned weighting factors to form output. The prediction algorithm was examined for several patients, and its performance is assessed based on the correlation between prediction and known output. Results: Respiratory motion data was collected for 20 patients using the RPM system. The output subsequence is the last 50 samples (∼2 seconds) of a surrogate signal, and the input subsequence was 100 (∼3 seconds) frames prior to the output subsequence. Based on the analysis of correlation coefficient between predicted and known output subsequence, the average correlation is 0.9644±0.0394 and 0.9789±0.0239 for equal-weighting and relative-weighting strategies, respectively. Conclusion: Preliminary results indicate that the prediction

  14. Hyperparameter Optimization of Artificial Neural Network in Customer Churn Prediction using Genetic Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Fridrich

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Purpose of the article: The ability of the company to predict customer churn and retain customers is considered to be worthy competitive advantage since it improves cost allocation in customer retention programs, retaining future revenue and profits. In addition, it has several positive indirect impacts such as increasing customer’s loyalty. Therefore, the focus of the article is on building highly reliable and robust classification model, which deals with such a task. Methodology/methods: The analysis is carried out on labelled ecommerce retail dataset describing 10 000 most valuable customers with the highest CLV (Customer Lifetime Value. To obtain the best performing ANN (Artificial Neural Network classification model, proposed hyperparameter search space is explored with genetic algorithm to find suitable parameter settings. ANN classification performance is measured with regard to prediction ability, which is understood as point estimate of AUC (Area Under Curve mean on 4fold cross-validation set. Explored part of hyperparameter search space is analyzed with conditional inference tree structure addressing underlying fundamental context of given optimization which results in identification of critical factors leading to well performing ANN classification model. Scientific aim: To present and execute experimental design for performance evaluation and hyperparameter optimization of classification models, which are used for customer churn prediction. Findings: It is concluded and statistically proven that in experimental context described, regularization parameter as well as training function have significant influence on classifiers AUC performance contrasting other properties of ANN. More specifically, well performing ANN classification models have regularization parameter set to 0, adaptation function set to trainlm or trainscg and more than 100 training epochs. Global optimum is identified for solution with regularization parameter set to

  15. SU-F-T-452: Influence of Dose Calculation Algorithm and Heterogeneity Correction On Risk Categorization of Patients with Cardiac Implanted Electronic Devices Undergoing Radiotherapy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Iwai, P; Lins, L Nadler [AC Camargo Cancer Center, Sao Paulo (Brazil)

    2016-06-15

    Purpose: There is a lack of studies with significant cohort data about patients using pacemaker (PM), implanted cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) or cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) device undergoing radiotherapy. There is no literature comparing the cumulative doses delivered to those cardiac implanted electronic devices (CIED) calculated by different algorithms neither studies comparing doses with heterogeneity correction or not. The aim of this study was to evaluate the influence of the algorithms Pencil Beam Convolution (PBC), Analytical Anisotropic Algorithm (AAA) and Acuros XB (AXB) as well as heterogeneity correction on risk categorization of patients. Methods: A retrospective analysis of 19 3DCRT or IMRT plans of 17 patients was conducted, calculating the dose delivered to CIED using three different calculation algorithms. Doses were evaluated with and without heterogeneity correction for comparison. Risk categorization of the patients was based on their CIED dependency and cumulative dose in the devices. Results: Total estimated doses at CIED calculated by AAA or AXB were higher than those calculated by PBC in 56% of the cases. In average, the doses at CIED calculated by AAA and AXB were higher than those calculated by PBC (29% and 4% higher, respectively). The maximum difference of doses calculated by each algorithm was about 1 Gy, either using heterogeneity correction or not. Values of maximum dose calculated with heterogeneity correction showed that dose at CIED was at least equal or higher in 84% of the cases with PBC, 77% with AAA and 67% with AXB than dose obtained with no heterogeneity correction. Conclusion: The dose calculation algorithm and heterogeneity correction did not change the risk categorization. Since higher estimated doses delivered to CIED do not compromise treatment precautions to be taken, it’s recommend that the most sophisticated algorithm available should be used to predict dose at the CIED using heterogeneity correction.

  16. SU-F-T-452: Influence of Dose Calculation Algorithm and Heterogeneity Correction On Risk Categorization of Patients with Cardiac Implanted Electronic Devices Undergoing Radiotherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iwai, P; Lins, L Nadler

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: There is a lack of studies with significant cohort data about patients using pacemaker (PM), implanted cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) or cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) device undergoing radiotherapy. There is no literature comparing the cumulative doses delivered to those cardiac implanted electronic devices (CIED) calculated by different algorithms neither studies comparing doses with heterogeneity correction or not. The aim of this study was to evaluate the influence of the algorithms Pencil Beam Convolution (PBC), Analytical Anisotropic Algorithm (AAA) and Acuros XB (AXB) as well as heterogeneity correction on risk categorization of patients. Methods: A retrospective analysis of 19 3DCRT or IMRT plans of 17 patients was conducted, calculating the dose delivered to CIED using three different calculation algorithms. Doses were evaluated with and without heterogeneity correction for comparison. Risk categorization of the patients was based on their CIED dependency and cumulative dose in the devices. Results: Total estimated doses at CIED calculated by AAA or AXB were higher than those calculated by PBC in 56% of the cases. In average, the doses at CIED calculated by AAA and AXB were higher than those calculated by PBC (29% and 4% higher, respectively). The maximum difference of doses calculated by each algorithm was about 1 Gy, either using heterogeneity correction or not. Values of maximum dose calculated with heterogeneity correction showed that dose at CIED was at least equal or higher in 84% of the cases with PBC, 77% with AAA and 67% with AXB than dose obtained with no heterogeneity correction. Conclusion: The dose calculation algorithm and heterogeneity correction did not change the risk categorization. Since higher estimated doses delivered to CIED do not compromise treatment precautions to be taken, it’s recommend that the most sophisticated algorithm available should be used to predict dose at the CIED using heterogeneity correction.

  17. Risk prediction of cardiovascular death based on the QTc interval

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jonas B; Graff, Claus; Rasmussen, Peter V

    2014-01-01

    electrocardiograms from 173 529 primary care patients aged 50-90 years were collected during 2001-11. The Framingham formula was used for heart rate-correction of the QT interval. Data on medication, comorbidity, and outcomes were retrieved from administrative registries. During a median follow-up period of 6......AIMS: Using a large, contemporary primary care population we aimed to provide absolute long-term risks of cardiovascular death (CVD) based on the QTc interval and to test whether the QTc interval is of value in risk prediction of CVD on an individual level. METHODS AND RESULTS: Digital...

  18. Risk determination after an acute myocardial infarction: review of 3 clinical risk prediction tools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scruth, Elizabeth Ann; Page, Karen; Cheng, Eugene; Campbell, Michelle; Worrall-Carter, Linda

    2012-01-01

    The objective of the study was to provide comprehensive information for the clinical nurse specialist (CNS) on commonly used clinical prediction (risk assessment) tools used to estimate risk of a secondary cardiac or noncardiac event and mortality in patients undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) for ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). The evolution and widespread adoption of primary PCI represent major advances in the treatment of acute myocardial infarction, specifically STEMI. The American College of Cardiology and the American Heart Association have recommended early risk stratification for patients presenting with acute coronary syndromes using several clinical risk scores to identify patients' mortality and secondary event risk after PCI. Clinical nurse specialists are integral to any performance improvement strategy. Their knowledge and understandings of clinical prediction tools will be essential in carrying out important assessment, identifying and managing risk in patients who have sustained a STEMI, and enhancing discharge education including counseling on medications and lifestyle changes. Over the past 2 decades, risk scores have been developed from clinical trials to facilitate risk assessment. There are several risk scores that can be used to determine in-hospital and short-term survival. This article critiques the most common tools: the Thrombolytic in Myocardial Infarction risk score, the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events risk score, and the Controlled Abciximab and Device Investigation to Lower Late Angioplasty Complications risk score. The importance of incorporating risk screening assessment tools (that are important for clinical prediction models) to guide therapeutic management of patients cannot be underestimated. The ability to forecast secondary risk after a STEMI will assist in determining which patients would require the most aggressive level of treatment and monitoring postintervention including

  19. Mining geriatric assessment data for in-patient fall prediction models and high-risk subgroups.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marschollek, Michael; Gövercin, Mehmet; Rust, Stefan; Gietzelt, Matthias; Schulze, Mareike; Wolf, Klaus-Hendrik; Steinhagen-Thiessen, Elisabeth

    2012-03-14

    Hospital in-patient falls constitute a prominent problem in terms of costs and consequences. Geriatric institutions are most often affected, and common screening tools cannot predict in-patient falls consistently. Our objectives are to derive comprehensible fall risk classification models from a large data set of geriatric in-patients' assessment data and to evaluate their predictive performance (aim#1), and to identify high-risk subgroups from the data (aim#2). A data set of n = 5,176 single in-patient episodes covering 1.5 years of admissions to a geriatric hospital were extracted from the hospital's data base and matched with fall incident reports (n = 493). A classification tree model was induced using the C4.5 algorithm as well as a logistic regression model, and their predictive performance was evaluated. Furthermore, high-risk subgroups were identified from extracted classification rules with a support of more than 100 instances. The classification tree model showed an overall classification accuracy of 66%, with a sensitivity of 55.4%, a specificity of 67.1%, positive and negative predictive values of 15% resp. 93.5%. Five high-risk groups were identified, defined by high age, low Barthel index, cognitive impairment, multi-medication and co-morbidity. Our results show that a little more than half of the fallers may be identified correctly by our model, but the positive predictive value is too low to be applicable. Non-fallers, on the other hand, may be sorted out with the model quite well. The high-risk subgroups and the risk factors identified (age, low ADL score, cognitive impairment, institutionalization, polypharmacy and co-morbidity) reflect domain knowledge and may be used to screen certain subgroups of patients with a high risk of falling. Classification models derived from a large data set using data mining methods can compete with current dedicated fall risk screening tools, yet lack diagnostic precision. High-risk subgroups may be identified

  20. Mining geriatric assessment data for in-patient fall prediction models and high-risk subgroups

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marschollek Michael

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Hospital in-patient falls constitute a prominent problem in terms of costs and consequences. Geriatric institutions are most often affected, and common screening tools cannot predict in-patient falls consistently. Our objectives are to derive comprehensible fall risk classification models from a large data set of geriatric in-patients' assessment data and to evaluate their predictive performance (aim#1, and to identify high-risk subgroups from the data (aim#2. Methods A data set of n = 5,176 single in-patient episodes covering 1.5 years of admissions to a geriatric hospital were extracted from the hospital's data base and matched with fall incident reports (n = 493. A classification tree model was induced using the C4.5 algorithm as well as a logistic regression model, and their predictive performance was evaluated. Furthermore, high-risk subgroups were identified from extracted classification rules with a support of more than 100 instances. Results The classification tree model showed an overall classification accuracy of 66%, with a sensitivity of 55.4%, a specificity of 67.1%, positive and negative predictive values of 15% resp. 93.5%. Five high-risk groups were identified, defined by high age, low Barthel index, cognitive impairment, multi-medication and co-morbidity. Conclusions Our results show that a little more than half of the fallers may be identified correctly by our model, but the positive predictive value is too low to be applicable. Non-fallers, on the other hand, may be sorted out with the model quite well. The high-risk subgroups and the risk factors identified (age, low ADL score, cognitive impairment, institutionalization, polypharmacy and co-morbidity reflect domain knowledge and may be used to screen certain subgroups of patients with a high risk of falling. Classification models derived from a large data set using data mining methods can compete with current dedicated fall risk screening tools, yet lack

  1. Nonparametric predictive inference for combined competing risks data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coolen-Maturi, Tahani; Coolen, Frank P.A.

    2014-01-01

    The nonparametric predictive inference (NPI) approach for competing risks data has recently been presented, in particular addressing the question due to which of the competing risks the next unit will fail, and also considering the effects of unobserved, re-defined, unknown or removed competing risks. In this paper, we introduce how the NPI approach can be used to deal with situations where units are not all at risk from all competing risks. This may typically occur if one combines information from multiple samples, which can, e.g. be related to further aspects of units that define the samples or groups to which the units belong or to different applications where the circumstances under which the units operate can vary. We study the effect of combining the additional information from these multiple samples, so effectively borrowing information on specific competing risks from other units, on the inferences. Such combination of information can be relevant to competing risks scenarios in a variety of application areas, including engineering and medical studies

  2. Predicting adolescent's cyberbullying behavior: A longitudinal risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barlett, Christopher P

    2015-06-01

    The current study used the risk factor approach to test the unique and combined influence of several possible risk factors for cyberbullying attitudes and behavior using a four-wave longitudinal design with an adolescent US sample. Participants (N = 96; average age = 15.50 years) completed measures of cyberbullying attitudes, perceptions of anonymity, cyberbullying behavior, and demographics four times throughout the academic school year. Several logistic regression equations were used to test the contribution of these possible risk factors. Results showed that (a) cyberbullying attitudes and previous cyberbullying behavior were important unique risk factors for later cyberbullying behavior, (b) anonymity and previous cyberbullying behavior were valid risk factors for later cyberbullying attitudes, and (c) the likelihood of engaging in later cyberbullying behavior increased with the addition of risk factors. Overall, results show the unique and combined influence of such risk factors for predicting later cyberbullying behavior. Results are discussed in terms of theory. Copyright © 2015 The Foundation for Professionals in Services for Adolescents. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Improving default risk prediction using Bayesian model uncertainty techniques.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kazemi, Reza; Mosleh, Ali

    2012-11-01

    Credit risk is the potential exposure of a creditor to an obligor's failure or refusal to repay the debt in principal or interest. The potential of exposure is measured in terms of probability of default. Many models have been developed to estimate credit risk, with rating agencies dating back to the 19th century. They provide their assessment of probability of default and transition probabilities of various firms in their annual reports. Regulatory capital requirements for credit risk outlined by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision have made it essential for banks and financial institutions to develop sophisticated models in an attempt to measure credit risk with higher accuracy. The Bayesian framework proposed in this article uses the techniques developed in physical sciences and engineering for dealing with model uncertainty and expert accuracy to obtain improved estimates of credit risk and associated uncertainties. The approach uses estimates from one or more rating agencies and incorporates their historical accuracy (past performance data) in estimating future default risk and transition probabilities. Several examples demonstrate that the proposed methodology can assess default probability with accuracy exceeding the estimations of all the individual models. Moreover, the methodology accounts for potentially significant departures from "nominal predictions" due to "upsetting events" such as the 2008 global banking crisis. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

  4. Predicting the severity of nuclear power plant transients using nearest neighbors modeling optimized by genetic algorithms on a parallel computer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin, J.; Bartal, Y.; Uhrig, R.E.

    1995-01-01

    The importance of automatic diagnostic systems for nuclear power plants (NPPs) has been discussed in numerous studies, and various such systems have been proposed. None of those systems were designed to predict the severity of the diagnosed scenario. A classification and severity prediction system for NPP transients is developed. The system is based on nearest neighbors modeling, which is optimized using genetic algorithms. The optimization process is used to determine the most important variables for each of the transient types analyzed. An enhanced version of the genetic algorithms is used in which a local downhill search is performed to further increase the accuracy achieved. The genetic algorithms search was implemented on a massively parallel supercomputer, the KSR1-64, to perform the analysis in a reasonable time. The data for this study were supplied by the high-fidelity simulator of the San Onofre unit 1 pressurized water reactor

  5. Machine Learning Algorithms For Predicting the Instability Timescales of Compact Planetary Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tamayo, Daniel; Ali-Dib, Mohamad; Cloutier, Ryan; Huang, Chelsea; Van Laerhoven, Christa L.; Leblanc, Rejean; Menou, Kristen; Murray, Norman; Obertas, Alysa; Paradise, Adiv; Petrovich, Cristobal; Rachkov, Aleksandar; Rein, Hanno; Silburt, Ari; Tacik, Nick; Valencia, Diana

    2016-10-01

    The Kepler mission has uncovered hundreds of compact multi-planet systems. The dynamical pathways to instability in these compact systems and their associated timescales are not well understood theoretically. However, long-term stability is often used as a constraint to narrow down the space of orbital solutions from the transit data. This requires a large suite of N-body integrations that can each take several weeks to complete. This computational bottleneck is therefore an important limitation in our ability to characterize compact multi-planet systems.From suites of numerical simulations, previous studies have fit simple scaling relations between the instability timescale and various system parameters. However, the numerically simulated systems can deviate strongly from these empirical fits.We present a new approach to the problem using machine learning algorithms that have enjoyed success across a broad range of high-dimensional industry applications. In particular, we have generated large training sets of direct N-body integrations of synthetic compact planetary systems to train several regression models (support vector machine, gradient boost) that predict the instability timescale. We find that ensembling these models predicts the instability timescale of planetary systems better than previous approaches using the simple scaling relations mentioned above.Finally, we will discuss how these models provide a powerful tool for not only understanding the current Kepler multi-planet sample, but also for characterizing and shaping the radial-velocity follow-up strategies of multi-planet systems from the upcoming Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) mission, given its shorter observation baselines.

  6. Automatic segmentation of thermal images of diabetic-at-risk feet using the snakes algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Etehadtavakol, Mahnaz; Ng, E. Y. K.; Kaabouch, Naima

    2017-11-01

    Diabetes is a disease with multi-systemic problems. It is a leading cause of death, medical costs, and loss of productivity. Foot ulcers are one generally known problem of uncontrolled diabetes that can lead to amputation signs of foot ulcers are not always obvious. Sometimes, symptoms won't even show up until ulcer is infected. Hence, identification of pre-ulceration of the plantar surface of the foot in diabetics is beneficial. Thermography has the potential to identify regions of the plantar with no evidence of ulcer but yet risk. Thermography is a technique that is safe, easy, non-invasive, with no contact, and repeatable. In this study, 59 thermographic images of the plantar foot of patients with diabetic neuropathy are implemented using the snakes algorithm to separate two feet from background automatically and separating the right foot from the left on each image. The snakes algorithm both separates the right and left foot into segmented different clusters according to their temperatures. The hottest regions will have the highest risk of ulceration for each foot. This algorithm also worked perfectly for all the current images.

  7. Prediction of Antimicrobial Peptides Based on Sequence Alignment and Support Vector Machine-Pairwise Algorithm Utilizing LZ-Complexity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xin Yi Ng

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This study concerns an attempt to establish a new method for predicting antimicrobial peptides (AMPs which are important to the immune system. Recently, researchers are interested in designing alternative drugs based on AMPs because they have found that a large number of bacterial strains have become resistant to available antibiotics. However, researchers have encountered obstacles in the AMPs designing process as experiments to extract AMPs from protein sequences are costly and require a long set-up time. Therefore, a computational tool for AMPs prediction is needed to resolve this problem. In this study, an integrated algorithm is newly introduced to predict AMPs by integrating sequence alignment and support vector machine- (SVM- LZ complexity pairwise algorithm. It was observed that, when all sequences in the training set are used, the sensitivity of the proposed algorithm is 95.28% in jackknife test and 87.59% in independent test, while the sensitivity obtained for jackknife test and independent test is 88.74% and 78.70%, respectively, when only the sequences that has less than 70% similarity are used. Applying the proposed algorithm may allow researchers to effectively predict AMPs from unknown protein peptide sequences with higher sensitivity.

  8. Risk prediction, safety analysis and quantitative probability methods - a caveat

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Critchley, O.H.

    1976-01-01

    Views are expressed on the use of quantitative techniques for the determination of value judgements in nuclear safety assessments, hazard evaluation, and risk prediction. Caution is urged when attempts are made to quantify value judgements in the field of nuclear safety. Criteria are given the meaningful application of reliability methods but doubts are expressed about their application to safety analysis, risk prediction and design guidances for experimental or prototype plant. Doubts are also expressed about some concomitant methods of population dose evaluation. The complexities of new designs of nuclear power plants make the problem of safety assessment more difficult but some possible approaches are suggested as alternatives to the quantitative techniques criticized. (U.K.)

  9. PREDICTION BASED CHANNEL-HOPPING ALGORITHM FOR RENDEZVOUS IN COGNITIVE RADIO NETWORKS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dhananjay Kumar

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Most common works for rendezvous in cognitive radio networks deal only with two user scenarios involving two secondary users and variable primary users and aim at reducing the time-to-rendezvous. A common control channel for the establishment of communication is not considered and hence the work comes under the category of ‘Blind Rendezvous’. Our work deal with multi-user scenario and provides a methodology for the users to find each other in the very first time slot spent for rendezvous or otherwise called the firstattempt- rendezvous. The secondary users make use of the history of past communications to enable them to predict the frequency channel that the user expects the rendezvous user to be. Our approach prevents greedy decision making between the users involved by the use of a cut-off time period for attempting rendezvous. Simulation results show that the time-to-rendezvous (TTR is greatly reduced upon comparison with other popular rendezvous algorithms.

  10. Mixing Energy Models in Genetic Algorithms for On-Lattice Protein Structure Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mahmood A. Rashid

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Protein structure prediction (PSP is computationally a very challenging problem. The challenge largely comes from the fact that the energy function that needs to be minimised in order to obtain the native structure of a given protein is not clearly known. A high resolution 20×20 energy model could better capture the behaviour of the actual energy function than a low resolution energy model such as hydrophobic polar. However, the fine grained details of the high resolution interaction energy matrix are often not very informative for guiding the search. In contrast, a low resolution energy model could effectively bias the search towards certain promising directions. In this paper, we develop a genetic algorithm that mainly uses a high resolution energy model for protein structure evaluation but uses a low resolution HP energy model in focussing the search towards exploring structures that have hydrophobic cores. We experimentally show that this mixing of energy models leads to significant lower energy structures compared to the state-of-the-art results.

  11. BP neural network optimized by genetic algorithm approach for titanium and iron content prediction in EDXRF

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Jun; Liu Mingzhe; Li Zhe; Li Lei; Shi Rui; Tuo Xianguo

    2015-01-01

    The quantitative elemental content analysis is difficult due to the uniform effect, particle effect and the element matrix effect, etc, when using energy dispersive X-ray fluorescence (EDXRF) technique. In this paper, a hybrid approach of genetic algorithm (GA) and back propagation (BP) neural network was proposed without considering the complex relationship between the concentration and intensity. The aim of GA optimized BP was to get better network initial weights and thresholds. The basic idea was that the reciprocal of the mean square error of the initialization BP neural network was set as the fitness value of the individual in GA, and the initial weights and thresholds were replaced by individuals, and then the optimal individual was sought by selection, crossover and mutation operations, finally a new BP neural network model was created with the optimal initial weights and thresholds. The calculation results of quantitative analysis of titanium and iron contents for five types of ore bodies in Panzhihua Mine show that the results of classification prediction are far better than that of overall forecasting, and relative errors of 76.7% samples are less than 2% compared with chemical analysis values, which demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed method. (authors)

  12. Prediction of Drug-Plasma Protein Binding Using Artificial Intelligence Based Algorithms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Rajnish; Sharma, Anju; Siddiqui, Mohammed Haris; Tiwari, Rajesh Kumar

    2018-01-01

    Plasma protein binding (PPB) has vital importance in the characterization of drug distribution in the systemic circulation. Unfavorable PPB can pose a negative effect on clinical development of promising drug candidates. The drug distribution properties should be considered at the initial phases of the drug design and development. Therefore, PPB prediction models are receiving an increased attention. In the current study, we present a systematic approach using Support vector machine, Artificial neural network, k- nearest neighbor, Probabilistic neural network, Partial least square and Linear discriminant analysis to relate various in vitro and in silico molecular descriptors to a diverse dataset of 736 drugs/drug-like compounds. The overall accuracy of Support vector machine with Radial basis function kernel came out to be comparatively better than the rest of the applied algorithms. The training set accuracy, validation set accuracy, precision, sensitivity, specificity and F1 score for the Suprort vector machine was found to be 89.73%, 89.97%, 92.56%, 87.26%, 91.97% and 0.898, respectively. This model can potentially be useful in screening of relevant drug candidates at the preliminary stages of drug design and development. Copyright© Bentham Science Publishers; For any queries, please email at epub@benthamscience.org.

  13. Proposed prediction algorithms based on hybrid approach to deal with anomalies of RFID data in healthcare

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Anny Leema

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The RFID technology has penetrated the healthcare sector due to its increased functionality, low cost, high reliability, and easy-to-use capabilities. It is being deployed for various applications and the data captured by RFID readers increase according to timestamp resulting in an enormous volume of data duplication, false positive, and false negative. The dirty data stream generated by the RFID readers is one of the main factors limiting the widespread adoption of RFID technology. In order to provide reliable data to RFID application, it is necessary to clean the collected data and this should be done in an effective manner before they are subjected to warehousing. The existing approaches to deal with anomalies are physical, middleware, and deferred approach. The shortcomings of existing approaches are analyzed and found that robust RFID system can be built by integrating the middleware and deferred approach. Our proposed algorithms based on hybrid approach are tested in the healthcare environment which predicts false positive, false negative, and redundant data. In this paper, healthcare environment is simulated using RFID and the data observed by RFID reader consist of anomalies false positive, false negative, and duplication. Experimental evaluation shows that our cleansing methods remove errors in RFID data more accurately and efficiently. Thus, with the aid of the planned data cleaning technique, we can bring down the healthcare costs, optimize business processes, streamline patient identification processes, and improve patient safety.

  14. Genetic Algorithms for Estimating Effective Parameters in a Lumped Reactor Model for Reactivity Predictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marseguerra, Marzio; Zio, Enrico

    2001-01-01

    The control system of a reactor should be able to predict, in real time, the amount of reactivity to be inserted (e.g., by control rod movements and boron injection and dilution) to respond to a given electrical load demand or to undesired, accidental transients. The real-time constraint renders impractical the use of a large, detailed dynamic reactor code. One has, then, to resort to simplified analytical models with lumped effective parameters suitably estimated from the reactor data.The simple and well-known Chernick model for describing the reactor power evolution in the presence of xenon is considered and the feasibility of using genetic algorithms for estimating the effective nuclear parameters involved and the initial nonmeasurable xenon and iodine conditions is investigated. This approach has the advantage of counterbalancing the inherent model simplicity with the periodic reestimation of the effective parameter values pertaining to each reactor on the basis of its recent history. By so doing, other effects, such as burnup, are automatically taken into account

  15. Cost and mortality impact of an algorithm-driven sepsis prediction system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calvert, Jacob; Hoffman, Jana; Barton, Christopher; Shimabukuro, David; Ries, Michael; Chettipally, Uli; Kerem, Yaniv; Jay, Melissa; Mataraso, Samson; Das, Ritankar

    2017-06-01

    To compute the financial and mortality impact of InSight, an algorithm-driven biomarker, which forecasts the onset of sepsis with minimal use of electronic health record data. This study compares InSight with existing sepsis screening tools and computes the differential life and cost savings associated with its use in the inpatient setting. To do so, mortality reduction is obtained from an increase in the number of sepsis cases correctly identified by InSight. Early sepsis detection by InSight is also associated with a reduction in length-of-stay, from which cost savings are directly computed. InSight identifies more true positive cases of severe sepsis, with fewer false alarms, than comparable methods. For an individual ICU with 50 beds, for example, it is determined that InSight annually saves 75 additional lives and reduces sepsis-related costs by $560,000. InSight performance results are derived from analysis of a single-center cohort. Mortality reduction results rely on a simplified use case, which fixes prediction times at 0, 1, and 2 h before sepsis onset, likely leading to under-estimates of lives saved. The corresponding cost reduction numbers are based on national averages for daily patient length-of-stay cost. InSight has the potential to reduce sepsis-related deaths and to lead to substantial cost savings for healthcare facilities.

  16. Predictions of space radiation fatality risk for exploration missions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cucinotta, Francis A; To, Khiet; Cacao, Eliedonna

    2017-05-01

    In this paper we describe revisions to the NASA Space Cancer Risk (NSCR) model focusing on updates to probability distribution functions (PDF) representing the uncertainties in the radiation quality factor (QF) model parameters and the dose and dose-rate reduction effectiveness factor (DDREF). We integrate recent heavy ion data on liver, colorectal, intestinal, lung, and Harderian gland tumors with other data from fission neutron experiments into the model analysis. In an earlier work we introduced distinct QFs for leukemia and solid cancer risk predictions, and here we consider liver cancer risks separately because of the higher RBE's reported in mouse experiments compared to other tumors types, and distinct risk factors for liver cancer for astronauts compared to the U.S. The revised model is used to make predictions of fatal cancer and circulatory disease risks for 1-year deep space and International Space Station (ISS) missions, and a 940 day Mars mission. We analyzed the contribution of the various model parameter uncertainties to the overall uncertainty, which shows that the uncertainties in relative biological effectiveness (RBE) factors at high LET due to statistical uncertainties and differences across tissue types and mouse strains are the dominant uncertainty. NASA's exposure limits are approached or exceeded for each mission scenario considered. Two main conclusions are made: 1) Reducing the current estimate of about a 3-fold uncertainty to a 2-fold or lower uncertainty will require much more expansive animal carcinogenesis studies in order to reduce statistical uncertainties and understand tissue, sex and genetic variations. 2) Alternative model assumptions such as non-targeted effects, increased tumor lethality and decreased latency at high LET, and non-cancer mortality risks from circulatory diseases could significantly increase risk estimates to several times higher than the NASA limits. Copyright © 2017 The Committee on Space Research (COSPAR

  17. Predicting epidemic risk from past temporal contact data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eugenio Valdano

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Understanding how epidemics spread in a system is a crucial step to prevent and control outbreaks, with broad implications on the system's functioning, health, and associated costs. This can be achieved by identifying the elements at higher risk of infection and implementing targeted surveillance and control measures. One important ingredient to consider is the pattern of disease-transmission contacts among the elements, however lack of data or delays in providing updated records may hinder its use, especially for time-varying patterns. Here we explore to what extent it is possible to use past temporal data of a system's pattern of contacts to predict the risk of infection of its elements during an emerging outbreak, in absence of updated data. We focus on two real-world temporal systems; a livestock displacements trade network among animal holdings, and a network of sexual encounters in high-end prostitution. We define the node's loyalty as a local measure of its tendency to maintain contacts with the same elements over time, and uncover important non-trivial correlations with the node's epidemic risk. We show that a risk assessment analysis incorporating this knowledge and based on past structural and temporal pattern properties provides accurate predictions for both systems. Its generalizability is tested by introducing a theoretical model for generating synthetic temporal networks. High accuracy of our predictions is recovered across different settings, while the amount of possible predictions is system-specific. The proposed method can provide crucial information for the setup of targeted intervention strategies.

  18. Beyond discrimination: A comparison of calibration methods and clinical usefulness of predictive models of readmission risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walsh, Colin G; Sharman, Kavya; Hripcsak, George

    2017-12-01

    Prior to implementing predictive models in novel settings, analyses of calibration and clinical usefulness remain as important as discrimination, but they are not frequently discussed. Calibration is a model's reflection of actual outcome prevalence in its predictions. Clinical usefulness refers to the utilities, costs, and harms of using a predictive model in practice. A decision analytic approach to calibrating and selecting an optimal intervention threshold may help maximize the impact of readmission risk and other preventive interventions. To select a pragmatic means of calibrating predictive models that requires a minimum amount of validation data and that performs well in practice. To evaluate the impact of miscalibration on utility and cost via clinical usefulness analyses. Observational, retrospective cohort study with electronic health record data from 120,000 inpatient admissions at an urban, academic center in Manhattan. The primary outcome was thirty-day readmission for three causes: all-cause, congestive heart failure, and chronic coronary atherosclerotic disease. Predictive modeling was performed via L1-regularized logistic regression. Calibration methods were compared including Platt Scaling, Logistic Calibration, and Prevalence Adjustment. Performance of predictive modeling and calibration was assessed via discrimination (c-statistic), calibration (Spiegelhalter Z-statistic, Root Mean Square Error [RMSE] of binned predictions, Sanders and Murphy Resolutions of the Brier Score, Calibration Slope and Intercept), and clinical usefulness (utility terms represented as costs). The amount of validation data necessary to apply each calibration algorithm was also assessed. C-statistics by diagnosis ranged from 0.7 for all-cause readmission to 0.86 (0.78-0.93) for congestive heart failure. Logistic Calibration and Platt Scaling performed best and this difference required analyzing multiple metrics of calibration simultaneously, in particular Calibration

  19. How to make predictions about future infectious disease risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woolhouse, Mark

    2011-01-01

    Formal, quantitative approaches are now widely used to make predictions about the likelihood of an infectious disease outbreak, how the disease will spread, and how to control it. Several well-established methodologies are available, including risk factor analysis, risk modelling and dynamic modelling. Even so, predictive modelling is very much the ‘art of the possible’, which tends to drive research effort towards some areas and away from others which may be at least as important. Building on the undoubted success of quantitative modelling of the epidemiology and control of human and animal diseases such as AIDS, influenza, foot-and-mouth disease and BSE, attention needs to be paid to developing a more holistic framework that captures the role of the underlying drivers of disease risks, from demography and behaviour to land use and climate change. At the same time, there is still considerable room for improvement in how quantitative analyses and their outputs are communicated to policy makers and other stakeholders. A starting point would be generally accepted guidelines for ‘good practice’ for the development and the use of predictive models. PMID:21624924

  20. The Economic Value of Predicting Bond Risk Premia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sarno, Lucio; Schneider, Paul; Wagner, Christian

    2016-01-01

    evaluation. More specifically, the model mostly generates positive (negative) economic value during times of high (low) macroeconomic uncertainty. Overall, the expectations hypothesis remains a useful benchmark for investment decisions in bond markets, especially in low uncertainty states.......This paper studies whether the evident statistical predictability of bond risk premia translates into economic gains for investors. We propose a novel estimation strategy for affine term structure models that jointly fits yields and bond excess returns, thereby capturing predictive information...... otherwise hidden to standard estimations. The model predicts excess returns with high regression R2s and high forecast accuracy but cannot outperform the expectations hypothesis out-of-sample in terms of economic value, showing a general contrast between statistical and economic metrics of forecast...

  1. Predicted cancer risks induced by computed tomography examinations during childhood, by a quantitative risk assessment approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Journy, Neige; Ancelet, Sophie; Rehel, Jean-Luc; Mezzarobba, Myriam; Aubert, Bernard; Laurier, Dominique; Bernier, Marie-Odile

    2014-03-01

    The potential adverse effects associated with exposure to ionizing radiation from computed tomography (CT) in pediatrics must be characterized in relation to their expected clinical benefits. Additional epidemiological data are, however, still awaited for providing a lifelong overview of potential cancer risks. This paper gives predictions of potential lifetime risks of cancer incidence that would be induced by CT examinations during childhood in French routine practices in pediatrics. Organ doses were estimated from standard radiological protocols in 15 hospitals. Excess risks of leukemia, brain/central nervous system, breast and thyroid cancers were predicted from dose-response models estimated in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors' dataset and studies of medical exposures. Uncertainty in predictions was quantified using Monte Carlo simulations. This approach predicts that 100,000 skull/brain scans in 5-year-old children would result in eight (90 % uncertainty interval (UI) 1-55) brain/CNS cancers and four (90 % UI 1-14) cases of leukemia and that 100,000 chest scans would lead to 31 (90 % UI 9-101) thyroid cancers, 55 (90 % UI 20-158) breast cancers, and one (90 % UI risks without exposure). Compared to background risks, radiation-induced risks would be low for individuals throughout life, but relative risks would be highest in the first decades of life. Heterogeneity in the radiological protocols across the hospitals implies that 5-10 % of CT examinations would be related to risks 1.4-3.6 times higher than those for the median doses. Overall excess relative risks in exposed populations would be 1-10 % depending on the site of cancer and the duration of follow-up. The results emphasize the potential risks of cancer specifically from standard CT examinations in pediatrics and underline the necessity of optimization of radiological protocols.

  2. Predictive Modelling Risk Calculators and the Non Dialysis Pathway.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robins, Jennifer; Katz, Ivor

    2013-04-16

    This guideline will review the current prediction models and survival/mortality scores available for decision making in patients with advanced kidney disease who are being considered for a non-dialysis treatment pathway. Risk prediction is gaining increasing attention with emerging literature suggesting improved patient outcomes through individualised risk prediction (1). Predictive models help inform the nephrologist and the renal palliative care specialists in their discussions with patients and families about suitability or otherwise of dialysis. Clinical decision making in the care of end stage kidney disease (ESKD) patients on a non-dialysis treatment pathway is currently governed by several observational trials (3). Despite the paucity of evidence based medicine in this field, it is becoming evident that the survival advantages associated with renal replacement therapy in these often elderly patients with multiple co-morbidities and limited functional status may be negated by loss of quality of life (7) (6), further functional decline (5, 8), increased complications and hospitalisations. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  3. Prediction of health risks from accidents: A comprehensive assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    MacFarlane, D.R.; Yuan, Y.C.

    1992-01-01

    We have developed two computer programs to predict radiation risks to individuals and/or the collective population from exposures to accidental releases of radioactive materials. When used together, these two codes provide a consistent, comprehensive tool to estimate not only the risks to specific individuals but also the distribution of risks in the exposed population and the total number of individuals within a specific level of risk. Prompt and latent fatalities are estimated for the exposed population, and from these, the risk to an average individual can be derived. Uncertainty in weather conditions is considered by estimating both the ''median'' and the ''maximum'' population doses based on the frequency distribution of wind speeds and stabilities for a given site. The importance of including all dispersible particles (particles smaller than about 100 μm) for dose and health risk analyses from nonfiltered releases for receptor locations within about 10 km from a release has been investigated. The dose contribution of the large particles (> 10 μm) has been shown to be substantially greater than those from the small particles for the dose receptors in various release and exposure conditions. These conditions include, particularly, elevated releases, strong wind weather, and exposure pathways associated with ground-deposited material over extended periods of time

  4. Predicting risk behaviors: development and validation of a diagnostic scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Witte, K; Cameron, K A; McKeon, J K; Berkowitz, J M

    1996-01-01

    The goal of this study was to develop and validate the Risk Behavior Diagnosis (RBD) Scale for use by health care providers and practitioners interested in promoting healthy behaviors. Theoretically guided by the Extended Parallel Process Model (EPPM; a fear appeal theory), the RBD scale was designed to work in conjunction with an easy-to-use formula to determine which types of health risk messages would be most appropriate for a given individual or audience. Because some health risk messages promote behavior change and others backfire, this type of scale offers guidance to practitioners on how to develop the best persuasive message possible to motivate healthy behaviors. The results of the study demonstrate the RBD scale to have a high degree of content, construct, and predictive validity. Specific examples and practical suggestions are offered to facilitate use of the scale for health practitioners.

  5. Developing a NIR multispectral imaging for prediction and visualization of peanut protein content using variable selection algorithms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Jun-Hu; Jin, Huali; Liu, Zhiwei

    2018-01-01

    The feasibility of developing a multispectral imaging method using important wavelengths from hyperspectral images selected by genetic algorithm (GA), successive projection algorithm (SPA) and regression coefficient (RC) methods for modeling and predicting protein content in peanut kernel was investigated for the first time. Partial least squares regression (PLSR) calibration model was established between the spectral data from the selected optimal wavelengths and the reference measured protein content ranged from 23.46% to 28.43%. The RC-PLSR model established using eight key wavelengths (1153, 1567, 1972, 2143, 2288, 2339, 2389 and 2446 nm) showed the best predictive results with the coefficient of determination of prediction (R2P) of 0.901, and root mean square error of prediction (RMSEP) of 0.108 and residual predictive deviation (RPD) of 2.32. Based on the obtained best model and image processing algorithms, the distribution maps of protein content were generated. The overall results of this study indicated that developing a rapid and online multispectral imaging system using the feature wavelengths and PLSR analysis is potential and feasible for determination of the protein content in peanut kernels.

  6. ANFIS Based Time Series Prediction Method of Bank Cash Flow Optimized by Adaptive Population Activity PSO Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jie-Sheng Wang

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available In order to improve the accuracy and real-time of all kinds of information in the cash business, and solve the problem which accuracy and stability is not high of the data linkage between cash inventory forecasting and cash management information in the commercial bank, a hybrid learning algorithm is proposed based on adaptive population activity particle swarm optimization (APAPSO algorithm combined with the least squares method (LMS to optimize the adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS model parameters. Through the introduction of metric function of population diversity to ensure the diversity of population and adaptive changes in inertia weight and learning factors, the optimization ability of the particle swarm optimization (PSO algorithm is improved, which avoids the premature convergence problem of the PSO algorithm. The simulation comparison experiments are carried out with BP-LMS algorithm and standard PSO-LMS by adopting real commercial banks’ cash flow data to verify the effectiveness of the proposed time series prediction of bank cash flow based on improved PSO-ANFIS optimization method. Simulation results show that the optimization speed is faster and the prediction accuracy is higher.

  7. Deep learning architectures for multi-label classification of intelligent health risk prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maxwell, Andrew; Li, Runzhi; Yang, Bei; Weng, Heng; Ou, Aihua; Hong, Huixiao; Zhou, Zhaoxian; Gong, Ping; Zhang, Chaoyang

    2017-12-28

    Multi-label classification of data remains to be a challenging problem. Because of the complexity of the data, it is sometimes difficult to infer information about classes that are not mutually exclusive. For medical data, patients could have symptoms of multiple different diseases at the same time and it is important to develop tools that help to identify problems early. Intelligent health risk prediction models built with deep learning architectures offer a powerful tool for physicians to identify patterns in patient data that indicate risks associated with certain types of chronic diseases. Physical examination records of 110,300 anonymous patients were used to predict diabetes, hypertension, fatty liver, a combination of these three chronic diseases, and the absence of disease (8 classes in total). The dataset was split into training (90%) and testing (10%) sub-datasets. Ten-fold cross validation was used to evaluate prediction accuracy with metrics such as precision, recall, and F-score. Deep Learning (DL) architectures were compared with standard and state-of-the-art multi-label classification methods. Preliminary results suggest that Deep Neural Networks (DNN), a DL architecture, when applied to multi-label classification of chronic diseases, produced accuracy that was comparable to that of common methods such as Support Vector Machines. We have implemented DNNs to handle both problem transformation and algorithm adaption type multi-label methods and compare both to see which is preferable. Deep Learning architectures have the potential of inferring more information about the patterns of physical examination data than common classification methods. The advanced techniques of Deep Learning can be used to identify the significance of different features from physical examination data as well as to learn the contributions of each feature that impact a patient's risk for chronic diseases. However, accurate prediction of chronic disease risks remains a challenging

  8. Automated analysis of free speech predicts psychosis onset in high-risk youths

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bedi, Gillinder; Carrillo, Facundo; Cecchi, Guillermo A; Slezak, Diego Fernández; Sigman, Mariano; Mota, Natália B; Ribeiro, Sidarta; Javitt, Daniel C; Copelli, Mauro; Corcoran, Cheryl M

    2015-01-01

    Background/Objectives: Psychiatry lacks the objective clinical tests routinely used in other specializations. Novel computerized methods to characterize complex behaviors such as speech could be used to identify and predict psychiatric illness in individuals. AIMS: In this proof-of-principle study, our aim was to test automated speech analyses combined with Machine Learning to predict later psychosis onset in youths at clinical high-risk (CHR) for psychosis. Methods: Thirty-four CHR youths (11 females) had baseline interviews and were assessed quarterly for up to 2.5 years; five transitioned to psychosis. Using automated analysis, transcripts of interviews were evaluated for semantic and syntactic features predicting later psychosis onset. Speech features were fed into a convex hull classification algorithm with leave-one-subject-out cross-validation to assess their predictive value for psychosis outcome. The canonical correlation between the speech features and prodromal symptom ratings was computed. Results: Derived speech features included a Latent Semantic Analysis measure of semantic coherence and two syntactic markers of speech complexity: maximum phrase length and use of determiners (e.g., which). These speech features predicted later psychosis development with 100% accuracy, outperforming classification from clinical interviews. Speech features were significantly correlated with prodromal symptoms. Conclusions: Findings support the utility of automated speech analysis to measure subtle, clinically relevant mental state changes in emergent psychosis. Recent developments in computer science, including natural language processing, could provide the foundation for future development of objective clinical tests for psychiatry. PMID:27336038

  9. A Novel Risk Scoring System Reliably Predicts Readmission Following Pancreatectomy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valero, Vicente; Grimm, Joshua C.; Kilic, Arman; Lewis, Russell L.; Tosoian, Jeffrey J.; He, Jin; Griffin, James; Cameron, John L.; Weiss, Matthew J.; Vollmer, Charles M.; Wolfgang, Christopher L.

    2015-01-01

    Background Postoperative readmissions have been proposed by Medicare as a quality metric and may impact provider reimbursement. Since readmission following pancreatectomy is common, we sought to identify factors associated with readmission in order to establish a predictive risk scoring system (RSS). Study Design A retrospective analysis of 2,360 pancreatectomies performed at nine, high-volume pancreatic centers between 2005 and 2011 was performed. Forty-five factors strongly associated with readmission were identified. To derive and validate a RSS, the population was randomly divided into two cohorts in a 4:1 fashion. A multivariable logistic regression model was constructed and scores were assigned based on the relative odds ratio of each independent predictor. A composite Readmission After Pancreatectomy (RAP) score was generated and then stratified to create risk groups. Results Overall, 464 (19.7%) patients were readmitted within 90-days. Eight pre- and postoperative factors, including prior myocardial infarction (OR 2.03), ASA Class ≥ 3 (OR 1.34), dementia (OR 6.22), hemorrhage (OR 1.81), delayed gastric emptying (OR 1.78), surgical site infection (OR 3.31), sepsis (OR 3.10) and short length of stay (OR 1.51), were independently predictive of readmission. The 32-point RAP score generated from the derivation cohort was highly predictive of readmission in the validation cohort (AUC 0.72). The low (0-3), intermediate (4-7) and high risk (>7) groups correlated to 11.7%, 17.5% and 45.4% observed readmission rates, respectively (preadmission following pancreatectomy. Identification of patients with increased risk of readmission using the RAP score will allow efficient resource allocation aimed to attenuate readmission rates. It also has potential to serve as a new metric for comparative research and quality assessment. PMID:25797757

  10. Prediction of tension-type headache risk in adolescents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. A. Stepanchenko

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Tension-type headache is the actual problem of adolescent neurology, which is associated with the prevalence of the disease, the tendency of the disease to the chronic course and a negative impact on performance in education, work capacity and quality of patients’ life. The aim. To develop a method for prediction of tension-type headache occurrence in adolescents. Materials and methods. 2342 adolescent boys and girls at the age of 13-17 years in schools of Kharkiv were examined. We used questionnaire to identify the headache. A group of adolescents with tension-type headache - 1430 people (61.1% was selected. The control group included 246 healthy adolescents. Possible risk factors for tension-type headache formation were divided into 4 groups: genetic, biomedical, psychosocial and social. Mathematical prediction of tension-type headache risk in adolescents was performed using the method of intensive indicators normalization of E.N. Shigan, which was based on probabilistic Bayesian’s method. The result was presented in the form of prognostic coefficients. Results. The most informative risk factors for tension-type headache development were the diseases, from which the teenager suffered after 1 year (sleep disorders, gastrointestinal diseases, autonomic disorders in the family history, traumatic brain injury, physical inactivity, poor adaptation of the patient in the kindergarten and school, stresses. Diagnostic scale has been developed to predict the risk of tension-type headache. It includes 23 prognostic factors with their gradation and meaning of integrated risk indicator, depending on individual factor strength influence. The risk of tension-type headache development ranged from 25,27 to 81,43 values of prognostic coefficient (low probability (25,27-43,99, the average probability (43,99-62,71 and high probability (62,71- 81,43. Conclusion. The study of tension-type headache risk factors, which were obtained by using an assessed and

  11. Research on time series data prediction based on clustering algorithm - A case study of Yuebao

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Xu; Zhao, Tianzhong

    2017-08-01

    Forecasting is the prerequisite for making scientific decisions, it is based on the past information of the research on the phenomenon, and combined with some of the factors affecting this phenomenon, then using scientific methods to forecast the development trend of the future, it is an important way for people to know the world. This is particularly important in the prediction of financial data, because proper financial data forecasts can provide a great deal of help to financial institutions in their strategic implementation, strategic alignment and risk control. However, the current forecasts of financial data generally use the method of forecast of overall data, which lack of consideration of customer behavior and other factors in the financial data forecasting process, and they are important factors influencing the change of financial data. Based on this situation, this paper analyzed the data of Yuebao, and according to the user's attributes and the operating characteristics, this paper classified 567 users of Yuebao, and made further predicted the data of Yuebao for every class of users, the results showed that the forecasting model in this paper can meet the demand of forecasting.

  12. Comparison and optimization of in silico algorithms for predicting the pathogenicity of sodium channel variants in epilepsy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holland, Katherine D; Bouley, Thomas M; Horn, Paul S

    2017-07-01

    Variants in neuronal voltage-gated sodium channel α-subunits genes SCN1A, SCN2A, and SCN8A are common in early onset epileptic encephalopathies and other autosomal dominant childhood epilepsy syndromes. However, in clinical practice, missense variants are often classified as variants of uncertain significance when missense variants are identified but heritability cannot be determined. Genetic testing reports often include results of computational tests to estimate pathogenicity and the frequency of that variant in population-based databases. The objective of this work was to enhance clinicians' understanding of results by (1) determining how effectively computational algorithms predict epileptogenicity of sodium channel (SCN) missense variants; (2) optimizing their predictive capabilities; and (3) determining if epilepsy-associated SCN variants are present in population-based databases. This will help clinicians better understand the results of indeterminate SCN test results in people with epilepsy. Pathogenic, likely pathogenic, and benign variants in SCNs were identified using databases of sodium channel variants. Benign variants were also identified from population-based databases. Eight algorithms commonly used to predict pathogenicity were compared. In addition, logistic regression was used to determine if a combination of algorithms could better predict pathogenicity. Based on American College of Medical Genetic Criteria, 440 variants were classified as pathogenic or likely pathogenic and 84 were classified as benign or likely benign. Twenty-eight variants previously associated with epilepsy were present in population-based gene databases. The output provided by most computational algorithms had a high sensitivity but low specificity with an accuracy of 0.52-0.77. Accuracy could be improved by adjusting the threshold for pathogenicity. Using this adjustment, the Mendelian Clinically Applicable Pathogenicity (M-CAP) algorithm had an accuracy of 0.90 and a

  13. Development of a Simple Clinical Risk Score for Early Prediction of Severe Dengue in Adult Patients.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ing-Kit Lee

    Full Text Available We aimed to develop and validate a risk score to aid in the early identification of laboratory-confirmed dengue patients at high risk of severe dengue (SD (i.e. severe plasma leakage with shock or respiratory distress, or severe bleeding or organ impairment. We retrospectively analyzed data of 1184 non-SD patients at hospital presentation and 69 SD